WorldWideScience

Sample records for multinomials

  1. and Multinomial Logistic Regression

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This work presented the results of an experimental comparison of two models: Multinomial Logistic Regression (MLR) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) for classifying students based on their academic performance. The predictive accuracy for each model was measured by their average Classification Correct Rate (CCR).

  2. FORMULASI MODEL PERMUTASI SIKLIS DENGAN OBJEK MULTINOMIAL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sukma Adi Perdana

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Penelitian ini bertujuan membangun model matematika untuk menghitung jumlah susunan objek dari permutasi siklis yang memiliki objek multinomial. Model yang dibangun dibatasi untuk permutasi siklis yang memiliki objek multinomial dengan minimal ada satu jenis objek beranggotakan tunggal. Pemodelan dilakukan berdasarkan struktur matematika dari permutasi siklis dan permutasi multinomial. Model permutasi siklis yang memiliki objek multinomial telah dirumuskan.   Pembuktian model telah dilakukan melalui validasi struktur serta validasi hasil yang dilakukan dengan cara membandingkan hasil perhitungan model dan hasil pencacahan. Teorema tentang permutasi siklis dengan objek multinomial juga telah dibangun. Kata kunci:  pemodelan , permutasi siklis, permutasi multinomial This study aims at constructing mathematical model to count the number of arrangement of objects form cyclical permutation that has multinomial objects. The model constructed is limited to cyclical permutation that has multinomial object in which at least one kind of object having single cardinality is contained within. Modelling is undertaken based on mathematical structure of cyclical permutation and multinomial permutation. Cyclical permutation model having multinomial object has been formulated as . The proof of the model has been undertaken by validating structure and validating the outcome which was conducted by comparing counting result of model and counting result manually. The theorem of cyclical permutation with multinomial object has also been developed. Keywords: modelling, cyclical permutation, multinomial permutation

  3. Parameter identification in multinomial processing tree models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schmittmann, V.D.; Dolan, C.V.; Raijmakers, M.E.J.; Batchelder, W.H.

    2010-01-01

    Multinomial processing tree models form a popular class of statistical models for categorical data that have applications in various areas of psychological research. As in all statistical models, establishing which parameters are identified is necessary for model inference and selection on the basis

  4. Interpreting Results from the Multinomial Logit Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wulff, Jesper

    2015-01-01

    This article provides guidelines and illustrates practical steps necessary for an analysis of results from the multinomial logit model (MLM). The MLM is a popular model in the strategy literature because it allows researchers to examine strategic choices with multiple outcomes. However, there see...... suitable for both interpretation and communication of results. The pratical steps are illustrated through an application of the MLM to the choice of foreign market entry mode.......This article provides guidelines and illustrates practical steps necessary for an analysis of results from the multinomial logit model (MLM). The MLM is a popular model in the strategy literature because it allows researchers to examine strategic choices with multiple outcomes. However, there seem...... to be systematic issues with regard to how researchers interpret their results when using the MLM. In this study, I present a set of guidelines critical to analyzing and interpreting results from the MLM. The procedure involves intuitive graphical representations of predicted probabilities and marginal effects...

  5. Multinomial logistic regression in workers' health

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grilo, Luís M.; Grilo, Helena L.; Gonçalves, Sónia P.; Junça, Ana

    2017-11-01

    In European countries, namely in Portugal, it is common to hear some people mentioning that they are exposed to excessive and continuous psychosocial stressors at work. This is increasing in diverse activity sectors, such as, the Services sector. A representative sample was collected from a Portuguese Services' organization, by applying a survey (internationally validated), which variables were measured in five ordered categories in Likert-type scale. A multinomial logistic regression model is used to estimate the probability of each category of the dependent variable general health perception where, among other independent variables, burnout appear as statistically significant.

  6. A Multinomial Probit Model with Latent Factors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Piatek, Rémi; Gensowski, Miriam

    2017-01-01

    be meaningfully linked to an economic model. We provide sufficient conditions that make this structure identified and interpretable. For inference, we design a Markov chain Monte Carlo sampler based on marginal data augmentation. A simulation exercise shows the good numerical performance of our sampler......We develop a parametrization of the multinomial probit model that yields greater insight into the underlying decision-making process, by decomposing the error terms of the utilities into latent factors and noise. The latent factors are identified without a measurement system, and they can...

  7. Comparison of multinomial and binomial proportion methods for analysis of multinomial count data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galyean, M L; Wester, D B

    2010-10-01

    Simulation methods were used to generate 1,000 experiments, each with 3 treatments and 10 experimental units/treatment, in completely randomized (CRD) and randomized complete block designs. Data were counts in 3 ordered or 4 nominal categories from multinomial distributions. For the 3-category analyses, category probabilities were 0.6, 0.3, and 0.1, respectively, for 2 of the treatments, and 0.5, 0.35, and 0.15 for the third treatment. In the 4-category analysis (CRD only), probabilities were 0.3, 0.3, 0.2, and 0.2 for treatments 1 and 2 vs. 0.4, 0.4, 0.1, and 0.1 for treatment 3. The 3-category data were analyzed with generalized linear mixed models as an ordered multinomial distribution with a cumulative logit link or by regrouping the data (e.g., counts in 1 category/sum of counts in all categories), followed by analysis of single categories as binomial proportions. Similarly, the 4-category data were analyzed as a nominal multinomial distribution with a glogit link or by grouping data as binomial proportions. For the 3-category CRD analyses, empirically determined type I error rates based on pair-wise comparisons (F- and Wald chi(2) tests) did not differ between multinomial and individual binomial category analyses with 10 (P = 0.38 to 0.60) or 50 (P = 0.19 to 0.67) sampling units/experimental unit. When analyzed as binomial proportions, power estimates varied among categories, with analysis of the category with the greatest counts yielding power similar to the multinomial analysis. Agreement between methods (percentage of experiments with the same results for the overall test for treatment effects) varied considerably among categories analyzed and sampling unit scenarios for the 3-category CRD analyses. Power (F-test) was 24.3, 49.1, 66.9, 83.5, 86.8, and 99.7% for 10, 20, 30, 40, 50, and 100 sampling units/experimental unit for the 3-category multinomial CRD analyses. Results with randomized complete block design simulations were similar to those with the CRD

  8. Implicit moral evaluations: A multinomial modeling approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cameron, C Daryl; Payne, B Keith; Sinnott-Armstrong, Walter; Scheffer, Julian A; Inzlicht, Michael

    2017-01-01

    Implicit moral evaluations-i.e., immediate, unintentional assessments of the wrongness of actions or persons-play a central role in supporting moral behavior in everyday life. Yet little research has employed methods that rigorously measure individual differences in implicit moral evaluations. In five experiments, we develop a new sequential priming measure-the Moral Categorization Task-and a multinomial model that decomposes judgment on this task into multiple component processes. These include implicit moral evaluations of moral transgression primes (Unintentional Judgment), accurate moral judgments about target actions (Intentional Judgment), and a directional tendency to judge actions as morally wrong (Response Bias). Speeded response deadlines reduced Intentional Judgment but not Unintentional Judgment (Experiment 1). Unintentional Judgment was stronger toward moral transgression primes than non-moral negative primes (Experiments 2-4). Intentional Judgment was associated with increased error-related negativity, a neurophysiological indicator of behavioral control (Experiment 4). Finally, people who voted for an anti-gay marriage amendment had stronger Unintentional Judgment toward gay marriage primes (Experiment 5). Across Experiments 1-4, implicit moral evaluations converged with moral personality: Unintentional Judgment about wrong primes, but not negative primes, was negatively associated with psychopathic tendencies and positively associated with moral identity and guilt proneness. Theoretical and practical applications of formal modeling for moral psychology are discussed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. The Finite and Moving Order Multinomial Universal Portfolio

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tan, Choon Peng; Pang, Sook Theng

    2013-01-01

    An upper bound for the ratio of wealths of the best constant -rebalanced portfolio to that of the multinomial universal portfolio is derived. The finite- order multinomial universal portfolios can reduce the implementation time and computer-memory requirements for computation. The improved performance of the finite-order portfolios on some selected local stock-price data sets is observed.

  10. Naive Bayesian classifiers for multinomial features: a theoretical analysis

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Van Dyk, E

    2007-11-01

    Full Text Available The authors investigate the use of naive Bayesian classifiers for multinomial feature spaces and derive error estimates for these classifiers. The error analysis is done by developing a mathematical model to estimate the probability density...

  11. Pricing Mining Concessions Based on Combined Multinomial Pricing Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chang Xiao

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available A combined multinomial pricing model is proposed for pricing mining concession in which the annualized volatility of the price of mineral products follows a multinomial distribution. First, a combined multinomial pricing model is proposed which consists of binomial pricing models calculated according to different volatility values. Second, a method is provided to calculate the annualized volatility and the distribution. Third, the value of convenience yields is calculated based on the relationship between the futures price and the spot price. The notion of convenience yields is used to adjust our model as well. Based on an empirical study of a Chinese copper mine concession, we verify that our model is easy to use and better than the model with constant volatility when considering the changing annualized volatility of the price of the mineral product.

  12. Hierarchical Multinomial Processing Tree Models: A Latent-Trait Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klauer, Karl Christoph

    2010-01-01

    Multinomial processing tree models are widely used in many areas of psychology. A hierarchical extension of the model class is proposed, using a multivariate normal distribution of person-level parameters with the mean and covariance matrix to be estimated from the data. The hierarchical model allows one to take variability between persons into…

  13. Multinomial-exponential reliability function: a software reliability model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saiz de Bustamante, Amalio; Saiz de Bustamante, Barbara

    2003-01-01

    The multinomial-exponential reliability function (MERF) was developed during a detailed study of the software failure/correction processes. Later on MERF was approximated by a much simpler exponential reliability function (EARF), which keeps most of MERF mathematical properties, so the two functions together makes up a single reliability model. The reliability model MERF/EARF considers the software failure process as a non-homogeneous Poisson process (NHPP), and the repair (correction) process, a multinomial distribution. The model supposes that both processes are statistically independent. The paper discusses the model's theoretical basis, its mathematical properties and its application to software reliability. Nevertheless it is foreseen model applications to inspection and maintenance of physical systems. The paper includes a complete numerical example of the model application to a software reliability analysis

  14. Interpreting Marginal Effects in the Multinomial Logit Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wulff, Jesper

    2014-01-01

    with a substantial increase in the probability of entering a foreign market using a joint venture, while increases in the unpredictability in the host country environment are associated with a lower probability of wholly owned subsidiaries and a higher probability of exporting entries....... that have entered foreign markets. Through the application of a multinomial logit model, careful analysis of the marginal effects is performed through graphical representations, marginal effects at the mean, average marginal effects and elasticities. I show that increasing cultural distance is associated......This paper presents the challenges when researchers interpret results about relationships between variables from discrete choice models with multiple outcomes. The recommended approach is demonstrated by testing predictions from transaction cost theory on a sample of 246 Scandinavian firms...

  15. Modeling Information Content Via Dirichlet-Multinomial Regression Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferrari, Alberto

    2017-01-01

    Shannon entropy is being increasingly used in biomedical research as an index of complexity and information content in sequences of symbols, e.g. languages, amino acid sequences, DNA methylation patterns and animal vocalizations. Yet, distributional properties of information entropy as a random variable have seldom been the object of study, leading to researchers mainly using linear models or simulation-based analytical approach to assess differences in information content, when entropy is measured repeatedly in different experimental conditions. Here a method to perform inference on entropy in such conditions is proposed. Building on results coming from studies in the field of Bayesian entropy estimation, a symmetric Dirichlet-multinomial regression model, able to deal efficiently with the issue of mean entropy estimation, is formulated. Through a simulation study the model is shown to outperform linear modeling in a vast range of scenarios and to have promising statistical properties. As a practical example, the method is applied to a data set coming from a real experiment on animal communication.

  16. Fuzzy multinomial logistic regression analysis: A multi-objective programming approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdalla, Hesham A.; El-Sayed, Amany A.; Hamed, Ramadan

    2017-05-01

    Parameter estimation for multinomial logistic regression is usually based on maximizing the likelihood function. For large well-balanced datasets, Maximum Likelihood (ML) estimation is a satisfactory approach. Unfortunately, ML can fail completely or at least produce poor results in terms of estimated probabilities and confidence intervals of parameters, specially for small datasets. In this study, a new approach based on fuzzy concepts is proposed to estimate parameters of the multinomial logistic regression. The study assumes that the parameters of multinomial logistic regression are fuzzy. Based on the extension principle stated by Zadeh and Bárdossy's proposition, a multi-objective programming approach is suggested to estimate these fuzzy parameters. A simulation study is used to evaluate the performance of the new approach versus Maximum likelihood (ML) approach. Results show that the new proposed model outperforms ML in cases of small datasets.

  17. Estimation from incomplete multinomial data. Ph.D. Thesis - Harvard Univ.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Credeur, K. R.

    1978-01-01

    The vector of multinomial cell probabilities was estimated from incomplete data, incomplete in that it contains partially classified observations. Each such partially classified observation was observed to fall in one of two or more selected categories but was not classified further into a single category. The data were assumed to be incomplete at random. The estimation criterion was minimization of risk for quadratic loss. The estimators were the classical maximum likelihood estimate, the Bayesian posterior mode, and the posterior mean. An approximation was developed for the posterior mean. The Dirichlet, the conjugate prior for the multinomial distribution, was assumed for the prior distribution.

  18. A dynamic random effects multinomial logit model of household car ownership

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bue Bjørner, Thomas; Leth-Petersen, Søren

    2007-01-01

    Using a large household panel we estimate demand for car ownership by means of a dynamic multinomial model with correlated random effects. Results suggest that the persistence in car ownership observed in the data should be attributed to both true state dependence and to unobserved heterogeneity...... (random effects). It also appears that random effects related to single and multiple car ownership are correlated, suggesting that the IIA assumption employed in simple multinomial models of car ownership is invalid. Relatively small elasticities with respect to income and car costs are estimated...

  19. Comparison of multinomial logistic regression and logistic regression: which is more efficient in allocating land use?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Yingzhi; Deng, Xiangzheng; Li, Xing; Ma, Enjun

    2014-12-01

    Spatially explicit simulation of land use change is the basis for estimating the effects of land use and cover change on energy fluxes, ecology and the environment. At the pixel level, logistic regression is one of the most common approaches used in spatially explicit land use allocation models to determine the relationship between land use and its causal factors in driving land use change, and thereby to evaluate land use suitability. However, these models have a drawback in that they do not determine/allocate land use based on the direct relationship between land use change and its driving factors. Consequently, a multinomial logistic regression method was introduced to address this flaw, and thereby, judge the suitability of a type of land use in any given pixel in a case study area of the Jiangxi Province, China. A comparison of the two regression methods indicated that the proportion of correctly allocated pixels using multinomial logistic regression was 92.98%, which was 8.47% higher than that obtained using logistic regression. Paired t-test results also showed that pixels were more clearly distinguished by multinomial logistic regression than by logistic regression. In conclusion, multinomial logistic regression is a more efficient and accurate method for the spatial allocation of land use changes. The application of this method in future land use change studies may improve the accuracy of predicting the effects of land use and cover change on energy fluxes, ecology, and environment.

  20. An Empirical Analysis of Television Commercial Ratings in Alternative Competitive Environments Using Multinomial Logit Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dilek ALTAŞ

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Watching the commercials depends on the choice of the viewer. Most of the television viewing takes place during “Prime-Time” unfortunately; many viewers opt to zap to other channels when commercials start. The television viewers’ demographic characteristics may indicate the likelihood of the zapping frequency. Analysis made by using Multinomial Logit Model indicates how effective the demographic variables are in the watching rate of the first minute of the television commercials.

  1. Health Care Facility Choice and User Fee Abolition: Regression Discontinuity in a Multinomial Choice Setting

    OpenAIRE

    Steven F. Koch; Jeffrey S. Racine

    2013-01-01

    We apply parametric and nonparametric regression discontinuity methodology within a multinomial choice setting to examine the impact of public health care user fee abolition on health facility choice using data from South Africa. The nonparametric model is found to outperform the parametric model both in- and out-of-sample, while also delivering more plausible estimates of the impact of user fee abolition (i.e. the 'treatment effect'). In the parametric framework, treatment effects were relat...

  2. Predicting longitudinal trajectories of health probabilities with random-effects multinomial logit regression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Xian; Engel, Charles C

    2012-12-20

    Researchers often encounter longitudinal health data characterized with three or more ordinal or nominal categories. Random-effects multinomial logit models are generally applied to account for potential lack of independence inherent in such clustered data. When parameter estimates are used to describe longitudinal processes, however, random effects, both between and within individuals, need to be retransformed for correctly predicting outcome probabilities. This study attempts to go beyond existing work by developing a retransformation method that derives longitudinal growth trajectories of unbiased health probabilities. We estimated variances of the predicted probabilities by using the delta method. Additionally, we transformed the covariates' regression coefficients on the multinomial logit function, not substantively meaningful, to the conditional effects on the predicted probabilities. The empirical illustration uses the longitudinal data from the Asset and Health Dynamics among the Oldest Old. Our analysis compared three sets of the predicted probabilities of three health states at six time points, obtained from, respectively, the retransformation method, the best linear unbiased prediction, and the fixed-effects approach. The results demonstrate that neglect of retransforming random errors in the random-effects multinomial logit model results in severely biased longitudinal trajectories of health probabilities as well as overestimated effects of covariates on the probabilities. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  3. Multinomial logistic models explaining income changes of migrants to high-amenity counties.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Von Reichert, C; Rudzitis, G

    1992-01-01

    "A survey of residents of and migrants to 15 fast-growing wilderness counties [in the United States] showed that only 25 percent of the migrants increased their income, while almost 50 percent accepted income losses upon their moves to high-amenity counties. Concomitantly, amenities and quality of life were more important factors in the migration decision than was employment, for instance. We focused on migrants in the labor force and employed multinomial logistic regression to identify the impact of migrants' characteristics, their satisfaction/dissatisfaction with previous location (push), and the importance of destination features (pull) on income change." excerpt

  4. Classification of Effective Soil Depth by Using Multinomial Logistic Regression Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, C. H.; Chan, H. C.; Chen, B. A.

    2016-12-01

    Classification of effective soil depth is a task of determining the slopeland utilizable limitation in Taiwan. The "Slopeland Conservation and Utilization Act" categorizes the slopeland into agriculture and husbandry land, land suitable for forestry and land for enhanced conservation according to the factors including average slope, effective soil depth, soil erosion and parental rock. However, sit investigation of the effective soil depth requires a cost-effective field work. This research aimed to classify the effective soil depth by using multinomial logistic regression with the environmental factors. The Wen-Shui Watershed located at the central Taiwan was selected as the study areas. The analysis of multinomial logistic regression is performed by the assistance of a Geographic Information Systems (GIS). The effective soil depth was categorized into four levels including deeper, deep, shallow and shallower. The environmental factors of slope, aspect, digital elevation model (DEM), curvature and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) were selected for classifying the soil depth. An Error Matrix was then used to assess the model accuracy. The results showed an overall accuracy of 75%. At the end, a map of effective soil depth was produced to help planners and decision makers in determining the slopeland utilizable limitation in the study areas.

  5. Extreme Sparse Multinomial Logistic Regression: A Fast and Robust Framework for Hyperspectral Image Classification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cao, Faxian; Yang, Zhijing; Ren, Jinchang; Ling, Wing-Kuen; Zhao, Huimin; Marshall, Stephen

    2017-12-01

    Although the sparse multinomial logistic regression (SMLR) has provided a useful tool for sparse classification, it suffers from inefficacy in dealing with high dimensional features and manually set initial regressor values. This has significantly constrained its applications for hyperspectral image (HSI) classification. In order to tackle these two drawbacks, an extreme sparse multinomial logistic regression (ESMLR) is proposed for effective classification of HSI. First, the HSI dataset is projected to a new feature space with randomly generated weight and bias. Second, an optimization model is established by the Lagrange multiplier method and the dual principle to automatically determine a good initial regressor for SMLR via minimizing the training error and the regressor value. Furthermore, the extended multi-attribute profiles (EMAPs) are utilized for extracting both the spectral and spatial features. A combinational linear multiple features learning (MFL) method is proposed to further enhance the features extracted by ESMLR and EMAPs. Finally, the logistic regression via the variable splitting and the augmented Lagrangian (LORSAL) is adopted in the proposed framework for reducing the computational time. Experiments are conducted on two well-known HSI datasets, namely the Indian Pines dataset and the Pavia University dataset, which have shown the fast and robust performance of the proposed ESMLR framework.

  6. Prospective memory after moderate-to-severe traumatic brain injury: a multinomial modeling approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pavawalla, Shital P; Schmitter-Edgecombe, Maureen; Smith, Rebekah E

    2012-01-01

    Prospective memory (PM), which can be understood as the processes involved in realizing a delayed intention, is consistently found to be impaired after a traumatic brain injury (TBI). Although PM can be empirically dissociated from retrospective memory, it inherently involves both a prospective component (i.e., remembering that an action needs to be carried out) and retrospective components (i.e., remembering what action needs to be executed and when). This study utilized a multinomial processing tree model to disentangle the prospective (that) and retrospective recognition (when) components underlying PM after moderate-to-severe TBI. Seventeen participants with moderate to severe TBI and 17 age- and education-matched control participants completed an event-based PM task that was embedded within an ongoing computer-based color-matching task. The multinomial processing tree modeling approach revealed a significant group difference in the prospective component, indicating that the control participants allocated greater preparatory attentional resources to the PM task compared to the TBI participants. Participants in the TBI group were also found to be significantly more impaired than controls in the when aspect of the retrospective component. These findings indicated that the TBI participants had greater difficulty allocating the necessary preparatory attentional resources to the PM task and greater difficulty discriminating between PM targets and nontargets during task execution, despite demonstrating intact posttest recall and/or recognition of the PM tasks and targets.

  7. Parameter Estimation in Probit Model for Multivariate Multinomial Response Using SMLE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jaka Nugraha

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available In  the  research  field  of  transportation,  market  research and  politics,  often involving  the  response  of  the multinomial multivariate  observations.  In  this  paper, we discused  a  modeling  of  multivariate  multinomial  responses  using  probit  model.  The estimated  parameters  were  calculated  using Maximum  Likelihood  Estimations  (MLE based  on  the  GHK  simulation.  method  known  as Simulated  Maximum  Likelihood Estimations (SMLE. Likelihood function on the Probit model contains probability values that must be resolved by simulation. By using  the GHK simulation algorithm,  the estimator equation has been obtained for the parameters in the model Probit  Keywords : Probit Model, Newton-Raphson Iteration,  GHK simulator, MLE, simulated log-likelihood

  8. Multinomial Response Models, for Modeling and Determining Important Factors in Different Contraceptive Methods in Women

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E Haji Nejad

    2001-06-01

    Full Text Available Difference aspects of multinomial statistical modelings and its classifications has been studied so far. In these type of problems Y is the qualitative random variable with T possible states which are considered as classifications. The goal is prediction of Y based on a random Vector X ? IR^m. Many methods for analyzing these problems were considered. One of the modern and general method of classification is Classification and Regression Trees (CART. Another method is recursive partitioning techniques which has a strange relationship with nonparametric regression. Classical discriminant analysis is a standard method for analyzing these type of data. Flexible discriminant analysis method which is a combination of nonparametric regression and discriminant analysis and classification using spline that includes least square regression and additive cubic splines. Neural network is an advanced statistical method for analyzing these types of data. In this paper properties of multinomial logistics regression were investigated and this method was used for modeling effective factors in selecting contraceptive methods in Ghom province for married women age 15-49. The response variable has a tetranomial distibution. The levels of this variable are: nothing, pills, traditional and a collection of other contraceptive methods. A collection of significant independent variables were: place, age of women, education, history of pregnancy and family size. Menstruation age and age at marriage were not statistically significant.

  9. Uncovering a latent multinomial: Analysis of mark-recapture data with misidentification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Link, W.A.; Yoshizaki, J.; Bailey, L.L.; Pollock, K.H.

    2010-01-01

    Natural tags based on DNA fingerprints or natural features of animals are now becoming very widely used in wildlife population biology. However, classic capture-recapture models do not allow for misidentification of animals which is a potentially very serious problem with natural tags. Statistical analysis of misidentification processes is extremely difficult using traditional likelihood methods but is easily handled using Bayesian methods. We present a general framework for Bayesian analysis of categorical data arising from a latent multinomial distribution. Although our work is motivated by a specific model for misidentification in closed population capture-recapture analyses, with crucial assumptions which may not always be appropriate, the methods we develop extend naturally to a variety of other models with similar structure. Suppose that observed frequencies f are a known linear transformation f = A???x of a latent multinomial variable x with cell probability vector ?? = ??(??). Given that full conditional distributions [?? | x] can be sampled, implementation of Gibbs sampling requires only that we can sample from the full conditional distribution [x | f, ??], which is made possible by knowledge of the null space of A???. We illustrate the approach using two data sets with individual misidentification, one simulated, the other summarizing recapture data for salamanders based on natural marks. ?? 2009, The International Biometric Society.

  10. Widen NomoGram for multinomial logistic regression: an application to staging liver fibrosis in chronic hepatitis C patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ardoino, Ilaria; Lanzoni, Monica; Marano, Giuseppe; Boracchi, Patrizia; Sagrini, Elisabetta; Gianstefani, Alice; Piscaglia, Fabio; Biganzoli, Elia M

    2017-04-01

    The interpretation of regression models results can often benefit from the generation of nomograms, 'user friendly' graphical devices especially useful for assisting the decision-making processes. However, in the case of multinomial regression models, whenever categorical responses with more than two classes are involved, nomograms cannot be drawn in the conventional way. Such a difficulty in managing and interpreting the outcome could often result in a limitation of the use of multinomial regression in decision-making support. In the present paper, we illustrate the derivation of a non-conventional nomogram for multinomial regression models, intended to overcome this issue. Although it may appear less straightforward at first sight, the proposed methodology allows an easy interpretation of the results of multinomial regression models and makes them more accessible for clinicians and general practitioners too. Development of prediction model based on multinomial logistic regression and of the pertinent graphical tool is illustrated by means of an example involving the prediction of the extent of liver fibrosis in hepatitis C patients by routinely available markers.

  11. The consumer’s choice among television displays: A multinomial logit approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos Giovanni González Espitia

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available The consumer’s choice over a bundle of products depends on observable and unobservable characteristics of goods and consumers. This choice is made in order to maximize utility subject to a budget constraint. At the same time, firms make product differentiation decisions to maximize profit. Quality is a form of differentiation. An example of this occurs in the TV market, where several displays are developed. Our objective is to determine the probability for a consumer of choosing a type of display from among five kinds: standard tube, LCD, plasma, projection and LED. Using a multinomial logit approach, we find that electronic appliances like DVDs and audio systems, as well as socioeconomic status, increase the probability of choosing a high-tech television display. Our empirical approximation contributes to further understanding rational consumer behavior through the theory of utility maximization and highlights the importance of studying market structure and analyzing changes in welfare and efficiency.

  12. Anàlisi cluster multinomial bayesià..Aplicació a dades electorals

    OpenAIRE

    Montón Domingo, Maria

    2009-01-01

    En aquest treball fi de màster se li vol donar una altra visió a les dades de resultats electorals, en concret, les del Parlament de Catalunya. Així doncs, l'eina d'anàlisi que s'utilitza és l'anàlisi clúster multinomial bayesià i les unitats d'estudi són les zones de recerca petita de la ciutat de Barcelona. D'aquesta manera es determina com s'agrupen les diferents zones de recerca petita de Barcelona des del punt de vista de les seves votacions i quina relació hi ha entre els partits en fun...

  13. Analysis of the liquidity risk in credit unions: a logit multinomial approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rosiane Maria Lima Gonçalves

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available Liquidity risk in financial institutions is associated to balance between working capital and financial demands. Other factors that affect credit union liquidity are an unanticipated increase of withdrawals without an offsetting amount of new deposits, and the lack of ability in promoting the product geographical diversification. The objective of this study is to analyze Minas Gerais state credit union liquidity risk and its factor determinants. Financial ratios and the multinomial logit model are used. The cooperatives were classified in five categories of liquidity risk: very low, low, medium, high and very high. The empirical results indicate that high levels of liquidity are related to smaller values of the outsourcing capital use, immobilization of the turnover capital, and provision ratios. So, they are associated to larger values of the deposit total/credit operations, and asset growth ratios.

  14. Testing independence between two Poisson-generated multinomial variables in case-series and cohort studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hocine, Mounia; Guillemot, Didier; Tubert-Bitter, Pascale; Moreau, Thierry

    2005-12-30

    In case-series or cohort studies, we propose a test of independence between the occurrences of two types of recurrent events (such as two repeated infections) related to an intermittent exposure (such as an antibiotic treatment). The test relies upon an extension of a recent method for analysing case-series data, in the presence of one type of recurrent event. The test statistic is derived from a bivariate Poisson generated-multinomial distribution. Simulations for checking the validity of the test concerning the type I error and the power properties are presented. The test is illustrated using data from a cohort on antibiotics bacterial resistance in schoolchildren. Copyright 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  15. Multinomial Bayesian learning for modeling classical and nonclassical receptive field properties.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hosoya, Haruo

    2012-08-01

    We study the interplay of Bayesian inference and natural image learning in a hierarchical vision system, in relation to the response properties of early visual cortex. We particularly focus on a Bayesian network with multinomial variables that can represent discrete feature spaces similar to hypercolumns combining minicolumns, enforce sparsity of activation to learn efficient representations, and explain divisive normalization. We demonstrate that maximal-likelihood learning using sampling-based Bayesian inference gives rise to classical receptive field properties similar to V1 simple cells and V2 cells, while inference performed on the trained network yields nonclassical context-dependent response properties such as cross-orientation suppression and filling in. Comparison with known physiological properties reveals some qualitative and quantitative similarities.

  16. The empathy impulse: A multinomial model of intentional and unintentional empathy for pain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cameron, C Daryl; Spring, Victoria L; Todd, Andrew R

    2017-04-01

    Empathy for pain is often described as automatic. Here, we used implicit measurement and multinomial modeling to formally quantify unintentional empathy for pain: empathy that occurs despite intentions to the contrary. We developed the pain identification task (PIT), a sequential priming task wherein participants judge the painfulness of target experiences while trying to avoid the influence of prime experiences. Using multinomial modeling, we distinguished 3 component processes underlying PIT performance: empathy toward target stimuli (Intentional Empathy), empathy toward prime stimuli (Unintentional Empathy), and bias to judge target stimuli as painful (Response Bias). In Experiment 1, imposing a fast (vs. slow) response deadline uniquely reduced Intentional Empathy. In Experiment 2, inducing imagine-self (vs. imagine-other) perspective-taking uniquely increased Unintentional Empathy. In Experiment 3, Intentional and Unintentional Empathy were stronger toward targets with typical (vs. atypical) pain outcomes, suggesting that outcome information matters and that effects on the PIT are not reducible to affective priming. Typicality of pain outcomes more weakly affected task performance when target stimuli were merely categorized rather than judged for painfulness, suggesting that effects on the latter are not reducible to semantic priming. In Experiment 4, Unintentional Empathy was stronger for participants who engaged in costly donation to cancer charities, but this parameter was also high for those who donated to an objectively worse but socially more popular charity, suggesting that overly high empathy may facilitate maladaptive altruism. Theoretical and practical applications of our modeling approach for understanding variation in empathy are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  17. DETERMINATION OF FACTORS AFFECTING LENGTH OF STAY WITH MULTINOMIAL LOGISTIC REGRESSION IN TURKEY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Öğr. Gör. Rukiye NUMAN TEKİN

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Length of stay (LOS has important implications in various aspects of health services, can vary according to a wide range of factors. It is noticed that LOS has been neglected mostly in both theoratical studies and practice of health care management in Turkey. The main purpose of this study is to identify factors related to LOS in Turkey. A retrospective analysis of 2.255.836 patients hospitalized to private, university, foundation university and other (municipality, association and foreigners/minority hospitals hospitals which have an agreement with Social Security Institution (SSI in Turkey, from January 1, 2010, until the December 31, 2010, was examined. Patient’s data were taken from MEDULA (National Electronic Invoice System and SPSS 18.0 was used to perform statistical analysis. In this study t-test, one way anova and multinomial logistic regression are used to determine variables that may affect to LOS. The average LOS of patients was 3,93 days (SD = 5,882. LOS showed a statistically significant difference according to all independent variables used in the study (age, gender, disease class, type of hospitalization, presence of comorbidity, type and number of surgery, season of hospitalization, hospital ownership/bed capacity/ geographical region/residential area/type of service. According to the results of the multinomial lojistic regression analysis, LOS was negatively affected in terms of gender, presence of comorbidity, geographical region of hospital and was positively affected in terms of age, season of hospitalization, hospital bed capacity/ ownership/type of service/residential area.

  18. "The empathy impulse: A multinomial model of intentional and unintentional empathy for pain": Correction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2018-04-01

    Reports an error in "The empathy impulse: A multinomial model of intentional and unintentional empathy for pain" by C. Daryl Cameron, Victoria L. Spring and Andrew R. Todd ( Emotion , 2017[Apr], Vol 17[3], 395-411). In this article, there was an error in the calculation of some of the effect sizes. The w effect size was manually computed incorrectly. The incorrect number of total observations was used, which affected the final effect size estimates. This computing error does not change any of the results or interpretations about model fit based on the G² statistic, or about significant differences across conditions in process parameters. Therefore, it does not change any of the hypothesis tests or conclusions. The w statistics for overall model fit should be .02 instead of .04 in Study 1, .01 instead of .02 in Study 2, .01 instead of .03 for the OIT in Study 3 (model fit for the PIT remains the same: .00), and .02 instead of .03 in Study 4. The corrected tables can be seen here: http://osf.io/qebku at the Open Science Framework site for the article. (The following abstract of the original article appeared in record 2017-01641-001.) Empathy for pain is often described as automatic. Here, we used implicit measurement and multinomial modeling to formally quantify unintentional empathy for pain: empathy that occurs despite intentions to the contrary. We developed the pain identification task (PIT), a sequential priming task wherein participants judge the painfulness of target experiences while trying to avoid the influence of prime experiences. Using multinomial modeling, we distinguished 3 component processes underlying PIT performance: empathy toward target stimuli (Intentional Empathy), empathy toward prime stimuli (Unintentional Empathy), and bias to judge target stimuli as painful (Response Bias). In Experiment 1, imposing a fast (vs. slow) response deadline uniquely reduced Intentional Empathy. In Experiment 2, inducing imagine-self (vs. imagine

  19. Using multinomial and imprecise probability for non-parametric modelling of rainfall in Manizales (Colombia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ibsen Chivatá Cárdenas

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available This article presents a rainfall model constructed by applying non-parametric modelling and imprecise probabilities; these tools were used because there was not enough homogeneous information in the study area. The area’s hydro-logical information regarding rainfall was scarce and existing hydrological time series were not uniform. A distributed extended rainfall model was constructed from so-called probability boxes (p-boxes, multinomial probability distribu-tion and confidence intervals (a friendly algorithm was constructed for non-parametric modelling by combining the last two tools. This model confirmed the high level of uncertainty involved in local rainfall modelling. Uncertainty en-compassed the whole range (domain of probability values thereby showing the severe limitations on information, leading to the conclusion that a detailed estimation of probability would lead to significant error. Nevertheless, rele-vant information was extracted; it was estimated that maximum daily rainfall threshold (70 mm would be surpassed at least once every three years and the magnitude of uncertainty affecting hydrological parameter estimation. This paper’s conclusions may be of interest to non-parametric modellers and decisions-makers as such modelling and imprecise probability represents an alternative for hydrological variable assessment and maybe an obligatory proce-dure in the future. Its potential lies in treating scarce information and represents a robust modelling strategy for non-seasonal stochastic modelling conditions

  20. Model-based Clustering of Categorical Time Series with Multinomial Logit Classification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frühwirth-Schnatter, Sylvia; Pamminger, Christoph; Winter-Ebmer, Rudolf; Weber, Andrea

    2010-09-01

    A common problem in many areas of applied statistics is to identify groups of similar time series in a panel of time series. However, distance-based clustering methods cannot easily be extended to time series data, where an appropriate distance-measure is rather difficult to define, particularly for discrete-valued time series. Markov chain clustering, proposed by Pamminger and Frühwirth-Schnatter [6], is an approach for clustering discrete-valued time series obtained by observing a categorical variable with several states. This model-based clustering method is based on finite mixtures of first-order time-homogeneous Markov chain models. In order to further explain group membership we present an extension to the approach of Pamminger and Frühwirth-Schnatter [6] by formulating a probabilistic model for the latent group indicators within the Bayesian classification rule by using a multinomial logit model. The parameters are estimated for a fixed number of clusters within a Bayesian framework using an Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling scheme representing a (full) Gibbs-type sampler which involves only draws from standard distributions. Finally, an application to a panel of Austrian wage mobility data is presented which leads to an interesting segmentation of the Austrian labour market.

  1. COMPARACION DE 13 INTERVALOS DE CONFIANZA PARA LOS PARAMETROS DE LA DISTRIBUCION MULTINOMIAL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Difariney González-Gómez

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available La distribución multinomial es fundamental para la descripción de fenómenos en los que pueden ocurrir k > 2 eventos excluyentes, cada uno con probabilidad π = (π1, π2, . . . , πk. Algunos ejemplos de esta distribución incluyen la calidad de un producto o encuestas de selección múltiple. Un problema de gran interés en inferencia estadística es la construcción de intervalos de confianza los parámetros para π. En este trabajo se comparan, a través de un estudio de simulación, 13 metodologías para la construcción de intervalos de confianza para dicha distribución. Utilizando como criterios de comparación el nivel de confianza nominal, la longitud del intervalo y una combinación de estos, se encuentra que los intervalos de confianza basados en el Teorema del Límite Central no presentan el mejor desempeño. Finalmente se recomiendan los métodos basados en la distribución F (Leemis, 1996, seguido del método de verosimilitud relativa (Kalbfleish, 1985 y Quesenberry & Hurst (1964.

  2. Multinomial logistic regression analysis for differentiating 3 treatment outcome trajectory groups for headache-associated disability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis, Kristin Nicole; Heckman, Bernadette Davantes; Himawan, Lina

    2011-08-01

    Growth mixture modeling (GMM) identified latent groups based on treatment outcome trajectories of headache disability measures in patients in headache subspecialty treatment clinics. Using a longitudinal design, 219 patients in headache subspecialty clinics in 4 large cities throughout Ohio provided data on their headache disability at pretreatment and 3 follow-up assessments. GMM identified 3 treatment outcome trajectory groups: (1) patients who initiated treatment with elevated disability levels and who reported statistically significant reductions in headache disability (high-disability improvers; 11%); (2) patients who initiated treatment with elevated disability but who reported no reductions in disability (high-disability nonimprovers; 34%); and (3) patients who initiated treatment with moderate disability and who reported statistically significant reductions in headache disability (moderate-disability improvers; 55%). Based on the final multinomial logistic regression model, a dichotomized treatment appointment attendance variable was a statistically significant predictor for differentiating high-disability improvers from high-disability nonimprovers. Three-fourths of patients who initiated treatment with elevated disability levels did not report reductions in disability after 5 months of treatment with new preventive pharmacotherapies. Preventive headache agents may be most efficacious for patients with moderate levels of disability and for patients with high disability levels who attend all treatment appointments. Copyright © 2011 International Association for the Study of Pain. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Work Intensity of Households: Multinomial Logit Analysis and Correspondence Analysis for Slovak Republic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erik Šoltés

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Exclusion from the labour market is a serious social problem that is also addressed by the Europe 2020 strategy. While in the past the attention of statisticians and sociologists in the fight against poverty and social exclusion has concentrated mainly on income poverty and material deprivation, in recent times many studies and analyses are much more focused on work intensity as well. Households that use their work potential to less than 20%, have a very low work intensity, and members of such households are included into the population of people who are at risk of poverty or social exclusion. Moreover, the low use of labour potential of households significantly increases the risk of income poverty and the threat of material deprivation. This article provides an analysis of work intensity levels of Slovak households depending on the factors that are monitored by the EU-SILC 2015. The impact of relevant factors is quantified by correspondence analysis and by multinomial logistic regression model.

  4. The outcome of tuberculosis treatment in subjects with chronic kidney disease in Brazil: a multinomial analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Barbara Reis-Santos

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: To analyze the association between clinical/epidemiological characteristics and outcomes of tuberculosis treatment in patients with concomitant tuberculosis and chronic kidney disease (CKD in Brazil. METHODS: We used the Brazilian Ministry of Health National Case Registry Database to identify patients with tuberculosis and CKD, treated between 2007 and 2011. The tuberculosis treatment outcomes were compared with epidemiological and clinical characteristics of the subjects using a hierarchical multinomial logistic regression model, in which cure was the reference outcome. RESULTS: The prevalence of CKD among patients with tuberculosis was 0.4% (95% CI: 0.37-0.42%. The sample comprised 1,077 subjects. The outcomes were cure, in 58%; treatment abandonment, in 7%; death from tuberculosis, in 13%; and death from other causes, in 22%. The characteristics that differentiated the ORs for treatment abandonment or death were age; alcoholism; AIDS; previous noncompliance with treatment; transfer to another facility; suspected tuberculosis on chest X-ray; positive results in the first smear microscopy; and indications for/use of directly observed treatment, short-course strategy. CONCLUSIONS: Our data indicate the importance of sociodemographic characteristics for the diagnosis of tuberculosis in patients with CKD and underscore the need for tuberculosis control strategies targeting patients with chronic noncommunicable diseases, such as CKD.

  5. A constrained multinomial Probit route choice model in the metro network: Formulation, estimation and application

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yongsheng; Wei, Heng; Zheng, Kangning

    2017-01-01

    Considering that metro network expansion brings us with more alternative routes, it is attractive to integrate the impacts of routes set and the interdependency among alternative routes on route choice probability into route choice modeling. Therefore, the formulation, estimation and application of a constrained multinomial probit (CMNP) route choice model in the metro network are carried out in this paper. The utility function is formulated as three components: the compensatory component is a function of influencing factors; the non-compensatory component measures the impacts of routes set on utility; following a multivariate normal distribution, the covariance of error component is structured into three parts, representing the correlation among routes, the transfer variance of route, and the unobserved variance respectively. Considering multidimensional integrals of the multivariate normal probability density function, the CMNP model is rewritten as Hierarchical Bayes formula and M-H sampling algorithm based Monte Carlo Markov Chain approach is constructed to estimate all parameters. Based on Guangzhou Metro data, reliable estimation results are gained. Furthermore, the proposed CMNP model also shows a good forecasting performance for the route choice probabilities calculation and a good application performance for transfer flow volume prediction. PMID:28591188

  6. Predictive occurrence models for coastal wetland plant communities: delineating hydrologic response surfaces with multinomial logistic regression

    Science.gov (United States)

    Snedden, Gregg A.; Steyer, Gregory D.

    2013-01-01

    Understanding plant community zonation along estuarine stress gradients is critical for effective conservation and restoration of coastal wetland ecosystems. We related the presence of plant community types to estuarine hydrology at 173 sites across coastal Louisiana. Percent relative cover by species was assessed at each site near the end of the growing season in 2008, and hourly water level and salinity were recorded at each site Oct 2007–Sep 2008. Nine plant community types were delineated with k-means clustering, and indicator species were identified for each of the community types with indicator species analysis. An inverse relation between salinity and species diversity was observed. Canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) effectively segregated the sites across ordination space by community type, and indicated that salinity and tidal amplitude were both important drivers of vegetation composition. Multinomial logistic regression (MLR) and Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC) were used to predict the probability of occurrence of the nine vegetation communities as a function of salinity and tidal amplitude, and probability surfaces obtained from the MLR model corroborated the CCA results. The weighted kappa statistic, calculated from the confusion matrix of predicted versus actual community types, was 0.7 and indicated good agreement between observed community types and model predictions. Our results suggest that models based on a few key hydrologic variables can be valuable tools for predicting vegetation community development when restoring and managing coastal wetlands.

  7. Predictive occurrence models for coastal wetland plant communities: Delineating hydrologic response surfaces with multinomial logistic regression

    Science.gov (United States)

    Snedden, Gregg A.; Steyer, Gregory D.

    2013-02-01

    Understanding plant community zonation along estuarine stress gradients is critical for effective conservation and restoration of coastal wetland ecosystems. We related the presence of plant community types to estuarine hydrology at 173 sites across coastal Louisiana. Percent relative cover by species was assessed at each site near the end of the growing season in 2008, and hourly water level and salinity were recorded at each site Oct 2007-Sep 2008. Nine plant community types were delineated with k-means clustering, and indicator species were identified for each of the community types with indicator species analysis. An inverse relation between salinity and species diversity was observed. Canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) effectively segregated the sites across ordination space by community type, and indicated that salinity and tidal amplitude were both important drivers of vegetation composition. Multinomial logistic regression (MLR) and Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC) were used to predict the probability of occurrence of the nine vegetation communities as a function of salinity and tidal amplitude, and probability surfaces obtained from the MLR model corroborated the CCA results. The weighted kappa statistic, calculated from the confusion matrix of predicted versus actual community types, was 0.7 and indicated good agreement between observed community types and model predictions. Our results suggest that models based on a few key hydrologic variables can be valuable tools for predicting vegetation community development when restoring and managing coastal wetlands.

  8. The Effect of Task Duration on Event-Based Prospective Memory: A Multinomial Modeling Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hongxia Zhang

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Remembering to perform an action when a specific event occurs is referred to as Event-Based Prospective Memory (EBPM. This study investigated how EBPM performance is affected by task duration by having university students (n = 223 perform an EBPM task that was embedded within an ongoing computer-based color-matching task. For this experiment, we separated the overall task’s duration into the filler task duration and the ongoing task duration. The filler task duration is the length of time between the intention and the beginning of the ongoing task, and the ongoing task duration is the length of time between the beginning of the ongoing task and the appearance of the first Prospective Memory (PM cue. The filler task duration and ongoing task duration were further divided into three levels: 3, 6, and 9 min. Two factors were then orthogonally manipulated between-subjects using a multinomial processing tree model to separate the effects of different task durations on the two EBPM components. A mediation model was then created to verify whether task duration influences EBPM via self-reminding or discrimination. The results reveal three points. (1 Lengthening the duration of ongoing tasks had a negative effect on EBPM performance while lengthening the duration of the filler task had no significant effect on it. (2 As the filler task was lengthened, both the prospective and retrospective components show a decreasing and then increasing trend. Also, when the ongoing task duration was lengthened, the prospective component decreased while the retrospective component significantly increased. (3 The mediating effect of discrimination between the task duration and EBPM performance was significant. We concluded that different task durations influence EBPM performance through different components with discrimination being the mediator between task duration and EBPM performance.

  9. Multinomial N-mixture models improve the applicability of electrofishing for developing population estimates of stream-dwelling Smallmouth Bass

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mollenhauer, Robert; Brewer, Shannon K.

    2017-01-01

    Failure to account for variable detection across survey conditions constrains progressive stream ecology and can lead to erroneous stream fish management and conservation decisions. In addition to variable detection’s confounding long-term stream fish population trends, reliable abundance estimates across a wide range of survey conditions are fundamental to establishing species–environment relationships. Despite major advancements in accounting for variable detection when surveying animal populations, these approaches remain largely ignored by stream fish scientists, and CPUE remains the most common metric used by researchers and managers. One notable advancement for addressing the challenges of variable detection is the multinomial N-mixture model. Multinomial N-mixture models use a flexible hierarchical framework to model the detection process across sites as a function of covariates; they also accommodate common fisheries survey methods, such as removal and capture–recapture. Effective monitoring of stream-dwelling Smallmouth Bass Micropterus dolomieu populations has long been challenging; therefore, our objective was to examine the use of multinomial N-mixture models to improve the applicability of electrofishing for estimating absolute abundance. We sampled Smallmouth Bass populations by using tow-barge electrofishing across a range of environmental conditions in streams of the Ozark Highlands ecoregion. Using an information-theoretic approach, we identified effort, water clarity, wetted channel width, and water depth as covariates that were related to variable Smallmouth Bass electrofishing detection. Smallmouth Bass abundance estimates derived from our top model consistently agreed with baseline estimates obtained via snorkel surveys. Additionally, confidence intervals from the multinomial N-mixture models were consistently more precise than those of unbiased Petersen capture–recapture estimates due to the dependency among data sets in the

  10. Multinomial Logistic Regression & Bootstrapping for Bayesian Estimation of Vertical Facies Prediction in Heterogeneous Sandstone Reservoirs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Mudhafar, W. J.

    2013-12-01

    Precisely prediction of rock facies leads to adequate reservoir characterization by improving the porosity-permeability relationships to estimate the properties in non-cored intervals. It also helps to accurately identify the spatial facies distribution to perform an accurate reservoir model for optimal future reservoir performance. In this paper, the facies estimation has been done through Multinomial logistic regression (MLR) with respect to the well logs and core data in a well in upper sandstone formation of South Rumaila oil field. The entire independent variables are gamma rays, formation density, water saturation, shale volume, log porosity, core porosity, and core permeability. Firstly, Robust Sequential Imputation Algorithm has been considered to impute the missing data. This algorithm starts from a complete subset of the dataset and estimates sequentially the missing values in an incomplete observation by minimizing the determinant of the covariance of the augmented data matrix. Then, the observation is added to the complete data matrix and the algorithm continues with the next observation with missing values. The MLR has been chosen to estimate the maximum likelihood and minimize the standard error for the nonlinear relationships between facies & core and log data. The MLR is used to predict the probabilities of the different possible facies given each independent variable by constructing a linear predictor function having a set of weights that are linearly combined with the independent variables by using a dot product. Beta distribution of facies has been considered as prior knowledge and the resulted predicted probability (posterior) has been estimated from MLR based on Baye's theorem that represents the relationship between predicted probability (posterior) with the conditional probability and the prior knowledge. To assess the statistical accuracy of the model, the bootstrap should be carried out to estimate extra-sample prediction error by randomly

  11. Brand Choice Modeling Modeling Toothpaste Brand Choice: An Empirical Comparison of Artificial Neural Networks and Multinomial Probit Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tolga Kaya

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study is to compare the performances of Artificial Neural Networks (ANN and Multinomial Probit (MNP approaches in modeling the choice decision within fast moving consumer goods sector. To do this, based on 2597 toothpaste purchases of a panel sample of 404 households, choice models are built and their performances are compared on the 861 purchases of a test sample of 135 households. Results show that ANN's predictions are better while MNP is useful in providing marketing insight.

  12. The Market for Ph.D. Holders in Greece: Probit and Multinomial Logit Analysis of their Employment Status

    OpenAIRE

    Joan Daouli; Eirini Konstantina Nikolatou

    2015-01-01

    The objective of this paper is to investigate the factors influencing the probability that a Ph.D. holder in Greece will work in the academic sector, as well as the probability of his or her choosing employment in various sectors of industry and occupational categories. Probit/multinomial logit models are employed using the 2001 Census data. The empirical results indicate that being young, married, having a Ph.D. in Natural Sciences and/or in Engineering, granted by a Greek university, increa...

  13. Modeling the dynamics of urban growth using multinomial logistic regression: a case study of Jiayu County, Hubei Province, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nong, Yu; Du, Qingyun; Wang, Kun; Miao, Lei; Zhang, Weiwei

    2008-10-01

    Urban growth modeling, one of the most important aspects of land use and land cover change study, has attracted substantial attention because it helps to comprehend the mechanisms of land use change thus helps relevant policies made. This study applied multinomial logistic regression to model urban growth in the Jiayu county of Hubei province, China to discover the relationship between urban growth and the driving forces of which biophysical and social-economic factors are selected as independent variables. This type of regression is similar to binary logistic regression, but it is more general because the dependent variable is not restricted to two categories, as those previous studies did. The multinomial one can simulate the process of multiple land use competition between urban land, bare land, cultivated land and orchard land. Taking the land use type of Urban as reference category, parameters could be estimated with odds ratio. A probability map is generated from the model to predict where urban growth will occur as a result of the computation.

  14. Multinomial logistic regression modelling of obesity and overweight among primary school students in a rural area of Negeri Sembilan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ghazali, Amirul Syafiq Mohd; Ali, Zalila; Noor, Norlida Mohd; Baharum, Adam [Pusat Pengajian Sains Matematik, Universiti Sains Malaysia, 11800 USM, Pulau Pinang, Malaysia amirul@unisel.edu.my, zalila@cs.usm.my, norlida@usm.my, adam@usm.my (Malaysia)

    2015-10-22

    Multinomial logistic regression is widely used to model the outcomes of a polytomous response variable, a categorical dependent variable with more than two categories. The model assumes that the conditional mean of the dependent categorical variables is the logistic function of an affine combination of predictor variables. Its procedure gives a number of logistic regression models that make specific comparisons of the response categories. When there are q categories of the response variable, the model consists of q-1 logit equations which are fitted simultaneously. The model is validated by variable selection procedures, tests of regression coefficients, a significant test of the overall model, goodness-of-fit measures, and validation of predicted probabilities using odds ratio. This study used the multinomial logistic regression model to investigate obesity and overweight among primary school students in a rural area on the basis of their demographic profiles, lifestyles and on the diet and food intake. The results indicated that obesity and overweight of students are related to gender, religion, sleep duration, time spent on electronic games, breakfast intake in a week, with whom meals are taken, protein intake, and also, the interaction between breakfast intake in a week with sleep duration, and the interaction between gender and protein intake.

  15. Multinomial logistic regression modelling of obesity and overweight among primary school students in a rural area of Negeri Sembilan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ghazali, Amirul Syafiq Mohd; Ali, Zalila; Noor, Norlida Mohd; Baharum, Adam

    2015-01-01

    Multinomial logistic regression is widely used to model the outcomes of a polytomous response variable, a categorical dependent variable with more than two categories. The model assumes that the conditional mean of the dependent categorical variables is the logistic function of an affine combination of predictor variables. Its procedure gives a number of logistic regression models that make specific comparisons of the response categories. When there are q categories of the response variable, the model consists of q-1 logit equations which are fitted simultaneously. The model is validated by variable selection procedures, tests of regression coefficients, a significant test of the overall model, goodness-of-fit measures, and validation of predicted probabilities using odds ratio. This study used the multinomial logistic regression model to investigate obesity and overweight among primary school students in a rural area on the basis of their demographic profiles, lifestyles and on the diet and food intake. The results indicated that obesity and overweight of students are related to gender, religion, sleep duration, time spent on electronic games, breakfast intake in a week, with whom meals are taken, protein intake, and also, the interaction between breakfast intake in a week with sleep duration, and the interaction between gender and protein intake

  16. Recreation Value of Water to Wetlands in the San Joaquin Valley: Linked Multinomial Logit and Count Data Trip Frequency Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Creel, Michael; Loomis, John

    1992-10-01

    The recreational benefits from providing increased quantities of water to wildlife and fisheries habitats is estimated using linked multinomial logit site selection models and count data trip frequency models. The study encompasses waterfowl hunting, fishing and wildlife viewing at 14 recreational resources in the San Joaquin Valley, including the National Wildlife Refuges, the State Wildlife Management Areas, and six river destinations. The economic benefits of increasing water supplies to wildlife refuges were also examined by using the estimated models to predict changing patterns of site selection and overall participation due to increases in water allocations. Estimates of the dollar value per acre foot of water are calculated for increases in water to refuges. The resulting model is a flexible and useful tool for estimating the economic benefits of alternative water allocation policies for wildlife habitat and rivers.

  17. Insights into the latent multinomial model through mark-resight data on female grizzly bears with cubs-of-the-year

    Science.gov (United States)

    Higgs, Megan D.; Link, William; White, Gary C.; Haroldson, Mark A.; Bjornlie, Daniel D.

    2013-01-01

    Mark-resight designs for estimation of population abundance are common and attractive to researchers. However, inference from such designs is very limited when faced with sparse data, either from a low number of marked animals, a low probability of detection, or both. In the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, yearly mark-resight data are collected for female grizzly bears with cubs-of-the-year (FCOY), and inference suffers from both limitations. To overcome difficulties due to sparseness, we assume homogeneity in sighting probabilities over 16 years of bi-annual aerial surveys. We model counts of marked and unmarked animals as multinomial random variables, using the capture frequencies of marked animals for inference about the latent multinomial frequencies for unmarked animals. We discuss undesirable behavior of the commonly used discrete uniform prior distribution on the population size parameter and provide OpenBUGS code for fitting such models. The application provides valuable insights into subtleties of implementing Bayesian inference for latent multinomial models. We tie the discussion to our application, though the insights are broadly useful for applications of the latent multinomial model.

  18. An econometric analysis of changes in arable land utilization using multinomial logit model in Pinggu district, Beijing, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Yueqing; McNamara, Paul; Wu, Yanfang; Dong, Yue

    2013-10-15

    Arable land in China has been decreasing as a result of rapid population growth and economic development as well as urban expansion, especially in developed regions around cities where quality farmland quickly disappears. This paper analyzed changes in arable land utilization during 1993-2008 in the Pinggu district, Beijing, China, developed a multinomial logit (MNL) model to determine spatial driving factors influencing arable land-use change, and simulated arable land transition probabilities. Land-use maps, as well as social-economic and geographical data were used in the study. The results indicated that arable land decreased significantly between 1993 and 2008. Lost arable land shifted into orchard, forestland, settlement, and transportation land. Significant differences existed for arable land transitions among different landform areas. Slope, elevation, population density, urbanization rate, distance to settlements, and distance to roadways were strong drivers influencing arable land transition to other uses. The MNL model was proved effective for predicting transition probabilities in land use from arable land to other land-use types, thus can be used for scenario analysis to develop land-use policies and land-management measures in this metropolitan area. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Measuring Response Styles Across the Big Five: A Multiscale Extension of an Approach Using Multinomial Processing Trees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khorramdel, Lale; von Davier, Matthias

    2014-01-01

    This study shows how to address the problem of trait-unrelated response styles (RS) in rating scales using multidimensional item response theory. The aim is to test and correct data for RS in order to provide fair assessments of personality. Expanding on an approach presented by Böckenholt (2012), observed rating data are decomposed into multiple response processes based on a multinomial processing tree. The data come from a questionnaire consisting of 50 items of the International Personality Item Pool measuring the Big Five dimensions administered to 2,026 U.S. students with a 5-point rating scale. It is shown that this approach can be used to test if RS exist in the data and that RS can be differentiated from trait-related responses. Although the extreme RS appear to be unidimensional after exclusion of only 1 item, a unidimensional measure for the midpoint RS is obtained only after exclusion of 10 items. Both RS measurements show high cross-scale correlations and item response theory-based (marginal) reliabilities. Cultural differences could be found in giving extreme responses. Moreover, it is shown how to score rating data to correct for RS after being proved to exist in the data.

  20. Exploratory multinomial logit model-based driver injury severity analyses for teenage and adult drivers in intersection-related crashes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Qiong; Zhang, Guohui; Ci, Yusheng; Wu, Lina; Tarefder, Rafiqul A; Alcántara, Adélamar Dely

    2016-05-18

    Teenage drivers are more likely to be involved in severely incapacitating and fatal crashes compared to adult drivers. Moreover, because two thirds of urban vehicle miles traveled are on signal-controlled roadways, significant research efforts are needed to investigate intersection-related teenage driver injury severities and their contributing factors in terms of driver behavior, vehicle-infrastructure interactions, environmental characteristics, roadway geometric features, and traffic compositions. Therefore, this study aims to explore the characteristic differences between teenage and adult drivers in intersection-related crashes, identify the significant contributing attributes, and analyze their impacts on driver injury severities. Using crash data collected in New Mexico from 2010 to 2011, 2 multinomial logit regression models were developed to analyze injury severities for teenage and adult drivers, respectively. Elasticity analyses and transferability tests were conducted to better understand the quantitative impacts of these factors and the teenage driver injury severity model's generality. The results showed that although many of the same contributing factors were found to be significant in the both teenage and adult driver models, certain different attributes must be distinguished to specifically develop effective safety solutions for the 2 driver groups. The research findings are helpful to better understand teenage crash uniqueness and develop cost-effective solutions to reduce intersection-related teenage injury severities and facilitate driver injury mitigation research.

  1. A general equation to obtain multiple cut-off scores on a test from multinomial logistic regression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bersabé, Rosa; Rivas, Teresa

    2010-05-01

    The authors derive a general equation to compute multiple cut-offs on a total test score in order to classify individuals into more than two ordinal categories. The equation is derived from the multinomial logistic regression (MLR) model, which is an extension of the binary logistic regression (BLR) model to accommodate polytomous outcome variables. From this analytical procedure, cut-off scores are established at the test score (the predictor variable) at which an individual is as likely to be in category j as in category j+1 of an ordinal outcome variable. The application of the complete procedure is illustrated by an example with data from an actual study on eating disorders. In this example, two cut-off scores on the Eating Attitudes Test (EAT-26) scores are obtained in order to classify individuals into three ordinal categories: asymptomatic, symptomatic and eating disorder. Diagnoses were made from the responses to a self-report (Q-EDD) that operationalises DSM-IV criteria for eating disorders. Alternatives to the MLR model to set multiple cut-off scores are discussed.

  2. Measuring decision weights in recognition experiments with multiple response alternatives: comparing the correlation and multinomial-logistic-regression methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dai, Huanping; Micheyl, Christophe

    2012-11-01

    Psychophysical "reverse-correlation" methods allow researchers to gain insight into the perceptual representations and decision weighting strategies of individual subjects in perceptual tasks. Although these methods have gained momentum, until recently their development was limited to experiments involving only two response categories. Recently, two approaches for estimating decision weights in m-alternative experiments have been put forward. One approach extends the two-category correlation method to m > 2 alternatives; the second uses multinomial logistic regression (MLR). In this article, the relative merits of the two methods are discussed, and the issues of convergence and statistical efficiency of the methods are evaluated quantitatively using Monte Carlo simulations. The results indicate that, for a range of values of the number of trials, the estimated weighting patterns are closer to their asymptotic values for the correlation method than for the MLR method. Moreover, for the MLR method, weight estimates for different stimulus components can exhibit strong correlations, making the analysis and interpretation of measured weighting patterns less straightforward than for the correlation method. These and other advantages of the correlation method, which include computational simplicity and a close relationship to other well-established psychophysical reverse-correlation methods, make it an attractive tool to uncover decision strategies in m-alternative experiments.

  3. Reproductive risk factors assessment for anaemia among pregnant women in India using a multinomial logistic regression model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perumal, Vanamail

    2014-07-01

    To assess reproductive risk factors for anaemia among pregnant women in urban and rural areas of India. The International Institute of Population Sciences, India, carried out third National Family Health Survey in 2005-2006 to estimate a key indicator from a sample of ever-married women in the reproductive age group 15-49 years. Data on various dimensions were collected using a structured questionnaire, and anaemia was measured using a portable HemoCue instrument. Anaemia prevalence among pregnant women was compared between rural and urban areas using chi-square test and odds ratio. Multinomial logistic regression analysis was used to determine risk factors. Anaemia prevalence was assessed among 3355 pregnant women from rural areas and 1962 pregnant women from urban areas. Moderate-to-severe anaemia in rural areas (32.4%) is significantly more common than in urban areas (27.3%) with an excess risk of 30%. Gestational age specific prevalence of anaemia significantly increases in rural areas after 6 months. Pregnancy duration is a significant risk factor in both urban and rural areas. In rural areas, increasing age at marriage and mass media exposure are significant protective factors of anaemia. However, more births in the last five years, alcohol consumption and smoking habits are significant risk factors. In rural areas, various reproductive factors and lifestyle characteristics constitute significant risk factors for moderate-to-severe anaemia. Therefore, intensive health education on reproductive practices and the impact of lifestyle characteristics are warranted to reduce anaemia prevalence. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  4. Evaluating risk factors for endemic human Salmonella Enteritidis infections with different phage types in Ontario, Canada using multinomial logistic regression and a case-case study approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Varga Csaba

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Identifying risk factors for Salmonella Enteritidis (SE infections in Ontario will assist public health authorities to design effective control and prevention programs to reduce the burden of SE infections. Our research objective was to identify risk factors for acquiring SE infections with various phage types (PT in Ontario, Canada. We hypothesized that certain PTs (e.g., PT8 and PT13a have specific risk factors for infection. Methods Our study included endemic SE cases with various PTs whose isolates were submitted to the Public Health Laboratory-Toronto from January 20th to August 12th, 2011. Cases were interviewed using a standardized questionnaire that included questions pertaining to demographics, travel history, clinical symptoms, contact with animals, and food exposures. A multinomial logistic regression method using the Generalized Linear Latent and Mixed Model procedure and a case-case study design were used to identify risk factors for acquiring SE infections with various PTs in Ontario, Canada. In the multinomial logistic regression model, the outcome variable had three categories representing human infections caused by SE PT8, PT13a, and all other SE PTs (i.e., non-PT8/non-PT13a as a referent category to which the other two categories were compared. Results In the multivariable model, SE PT8 was positively associated with contact with dogs (OR=2.17, 95% CI 1.01-4.68 and negatively associated with pepper consumption (OR=0.35, 95% CI 0.13-0.94, after adjusting for age categories and gender, and using exposure periods and health regions as random effects to account for clustering. Conclusions Our study findings offer interesting hypotheses about the role of phage type-specific risk factors. Multinomial logistic regression analysis and the case-case study approach are novel methodologies to evaluate associations among SE infections with different PTs and various risk factors.

  5. Multinomial model and zero-inflated gamma model to study time spent on leisure time physical activity: an example of ELSA-Brasil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nobre, Aline Araújo; Carvalho, Marilia Sá; Griep, Rosane Härter; Fonseca, Maria de Jesus Mendes da; Melo, Enirtes Caetano Prates; Santos, Itamar de Souza; Chor, Dora

    2017-08-17

    To compare two methodological approaches: the multinomial model and the zero-inflated gamma model, evaluating the factors associated with the practice and amount of time spent on leisure time physical activity. Data collected from 14,823 baseline participants in the Longitudinal Study of Adult Health (ELSA-Brasil - Estudo Longitudinal de Saúde do Adulto ) have been analysed. Regular leisure time physical activity has been measured using the leisure time physical activity module of the International Physical Activity Questionnaire. The explanatory variables considered were gender, age, education level, and annual per capita family income. The main advantage of the zero-inflated gamma model over the multinomial model is that it estimates mean time (minutes per week) spent on leisure time physical activity. For example, on average, men spent 28 minutes/week longer on leisure time physical activity than women did. The most sedentary groups were young women with low education level and income. The zero-inflated gamma model, which is rarely used in epidemiological studies, can give more appropriate answers in several situations. In our case, we have obtained important information on the main determinants of the duration of leisure time physical activity. This information can help guide efforts towards the most vulnerable groups since physical inactivity is associated with different diseases and even premature death.

  6. Multinomial model and zero-inflated gamma model to study time spent on leisure time physical activity: an example of ELSA-Brasil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aline Araújo Nobre

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To compare two methodological approaches: the multinomial model and the zero-inflated gamma model, evaluating the factors associated with the practice and amount of time spent on leisure time physical activity. METHODS Data collected from 14,823 baseline participants in the Longitudinal Study of Adult Health (ELSA-Brasil – Estudo Longitudinal de Saúde do Adulto have been analysed. Regular leisure time physical activity has been measured using the leisure time physical activity module of the International Physical Activity Questionnaire. The explanatory variables considered were gender, age, education level, and annual per capita family income. RESULTS The main advantage of the zero-inflated gamma model over the multinomial model is that it estimates mean time (minutes per week spent on leisure time physical activity. For example, on average, men spent 28 minutes/week longer on leisure time physical activity than women did. The most sedentary groups were young women with low education level and income CONCLUSIONS The zero-inflated gamma model, which is rarely used in epidemiological studies, can give more appropriate answers in several situations. In our case, we have obtained important information on the main determinants of the duration of leisure time physical activity. This information can help guide efforts towards the most vulnerable groups since physical inactivity is associated with different diseases and even premature death.

  7. The multivariate Dirichlet-multinomial distribution and its application in forensic genetics to adjust for subpopulation effects using the θ-correction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tvedebrink, Torben; Eriksen, Poul Svante; Morling, Niels

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, we discuss the construction of a multivariate generalisation of the Dirichlet-multinomial distribution. An example from forensic genetics in the statistical analysis of DNA mixtures motivates the study of this multivariate extension. In forensic genetics, adjustment of the match...... probabilities due to remote ancestry in the population is often done using the so-called θ-correction. This correction increases the probability of observing multiple copies of rare alleles in a subpopulation and thereby reduces the weight of the evidence for rare genotypes. A recent publication by Cowell et al....... (2015) showed elegantly how to use Bayesian networks for efficient computations of likelihood ratios in a forensic genetic context. However, their underlying population genetic model assumed independence of alleles, which is not realistic in real populations. We demonstrate how the so-called θ...

  8. Prevalence and Predictors of Pre-Diabetes and Diabetes among Adults 18 Years or Older in Florida: A Multinomial Logistic Modeling Approach.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ifechukwude Obiamaka Okwechime

    Full Text Available Individuals with pre-diabetes and diabetes have increased risks of developing macro-vascular complications including heart disease and stroke; which are the leading causes of death globally. The objective of this study was to estimate the prevalence of pre-diabetes and diabetes, and to investigate their predictors among adults ≥18 years in Florida.Data covering the time period January-December 2013, were obtained from Florida's Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS. Survey design of the study was declared using SVYSET statement of STATA 13.1. Descriptive analyses were performed to estimate the prevalence of pre-diabetes and diabetes. Predictors of pre-diabetes and diabetes were investigated using multinomial logistic regression model. Model goodness-of-fit was evaluated using both the multinomial goodness-of-fit test proposed by Fagerland, Hosmer, and Bofin, as well as, the Hosmer-Lemeshow's goodness of fit test.There were approximately 2,983 (7.3% and 5,189 (12.1% adults in Florida diagnosed with pre-diabetes and diabetes, respectively. Over half of the study respondents were white, married and over the age of 45 years while 36.4% reported being physically inactive, overweight (36.4% or obese (26.4%, hypertensive (34.6%, hypercholesteremic (40.3%, and 26% were arthritic. Based on the final multivariable multinomial model, only being overweight (Relative Risk Ratio [RRR] = 1.85, 95% Confidence Interval [95% CI] = 1.41, 2.42, obese (RRR = 3.41, 95% CI = 2.61, 4.45, hypertensive (RRR = 1.69, 95% CI = 1.33, 2.15, hypercholesterolemic (RRR = 1.94, 95% CI = 1.55, 2.43, and arthritic (RRR = 1.24, 95% CI = 1.00, 1.55 had significant associations with pre-diabetes. However, more predictors had significant associations with diabetes and the strengths of associations tended to be higher than for the association with pre-diabetes. For instance, the relative risk ratios for the association between diabetes and being overweight (RRR = 2.00, 95

  9. The Application of Multinomial Logistic Regression Models for the Assessment of Parameters of Oocytes and Embryos Quality in Predicting Pregnancy and Miscarriage

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Milewska Anna Justyna

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Infertility is a huge problem nowadays, not only from the medical but also from the social point of view. A key step to improve treatment outcomes is the possibility of effective prediction of treatment result. In a situation when a phenomenon with more than 2 states needs to be explained, e.g. pregnancy, miscarriage, non-pregnancy, the use of multinomial logistic regression is a good solution. The aim of this paper is to select those features that have a significant impact on achieving clinical pregnancy as well as those that determine the occurrence of spontaneous miscarriage (non-pregnancy was set as the reference category. Two multi-factor models were obtained, used in predicting infertility treatment outcomes. One of the models enabled to conclude that the number of follicles and the percentage of retrieved mature oocytes have a significant impact when prediction of treatment outcome is made on the basis of information about oocytes. The other model, built on the basis of information about embryos, showed the significance of the number of fertilized oocytes, the percentage of at least 7-cell embryos on day 3, the percentage of blasts on day 5, and the day of transfer.

  10. Expert Elicitation of Multinomial Probabilities for Decision-Analytic Modeling: An Application to Rates of Disease Progression in Undiagnosed and Untreated Melanoma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Edward C F; Usher-Smith, Juliet A; Emery, Jon; Corrie, Pippa G; Walter, Fiona M

    2018-06-01

    Expert elicitation is required to inform decision making when relevant "better quality" data either do not exist or cannot be collected. An example of this is to inform decisions as to whether to screen for melanoma. A key input is the counterfactual, in this case the natural history of melanoma in patients who are undiagnosed and hence untreated. To elicit expert opinion on the probability of disease progression in patients with melanoma that is undetected and hence untreated. A bespoke webinar-based expert elicitation protocol was administered to 14 participants in the United Kingdom, Australia, and New Zealand, comprising 12 multinomial questions on the probability of progression from one disease stage to another in the absence of treatment. A modified Connor-Mosimann distribution was fitted to individual responses to each question. Individual responses were pooled using a Monte-Carlo simulation approach. Participants were asked to provide feedback on the process. A pooled modified Connor-Mosimann distribution was successfully derived from participants' responses. Feedback from participants was generally positive, with 86% willing to take part in such an exercise again. Nevertheless, only 57% of participants felt that this was a valid approach to determine the risk of disease progression. Qualitative feedback reflected some understanding of the need to rely on expert elicitation in the absence of "hard" data. We successfully elicited and pooled the beliefs of experts in melanoma regarding the probability of disease progression in a format suitable for inclusion in a decision-analytic model. Copyright © 2018 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Multinomial malware classification based on call graphs

    OpenAIRE

    Østbye, Morten Oscar

    2017-01-01

    Ever since the computer was invented, people have found ways to evolve interaction or simplify tasks with computational resources, this for both good and bad. For the known lifespan of the digital age, malicious software (malware) has been a constant threat to computer systems. Malware has been the cause of enormous damage related to both governmental and private sectors, but also for individuals. Malware has evolved to target different systems and environments and therefore there exists a va...

  12. Heterogeneous Impact of the “Seguro Popular” Program on the Utilization of Obstetrical Services in Mexico, 2001–2006: A Multinomial Probit Model with a Discrete Endogenous Variable

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sosa-Rubi, Sandra G.; Galárraga, Omar

    2009-01-01

    Objective We evaluated the impact of Seguro Popular (SP), a program introduced in 2001 in Mexico primarily to finance health care for the poor. We focused on the effect of household enrollment in SP on pregnant women’s access to obstetrical services, an important outcome measure of both maternal and infant health. Data We relied upon data from the cross-sectional 2006 National Health and Nutrition Survey (ENSANUT) in Mexico. We analyzed the responses of 3,890 women who delivered babies during 2001–2006 and whose households lacked employer-based health care coverage. Methods We formulated a multinomial probit model that distinguished between three mutually exclusive sites for delivering a baby: a health unit specifically accredited by SP; a non-SP-accredited clinic run by the Department of Health (Secretaría de Salud, or SSA); and private obstetrical care. Our model accounted for the endogeneity of the household’s binary decision to enroll in the SP program. Results Women in households that participated in the SP program had a much stronger preference for having a baby in a SP-sponsored unit rather than paying out of pocket for a private delivery. At the same time, participation in SP was associated with a stronger preference for delivering in the private sector rather than at a state-run SSA clinic. On balance, the Seguro Popular program reduced pregnant women’s attendance at an SSA clinic much more than it reduced the probability of delivering a baby in the private sector. The quantitative impact of the SP program varied with the woman’s education and health, as well as the assets and location (rural versus urban) of the household. Conclusions The SP program had a robust, significantly positive impact on access to obstetrical services. Our finding that women enrolled in SP switched from non-SP state-run facilities, rather than from out-of-pocket private services, is important for public policy and requires further exploration. PMID:18824268

  13. Modeling a Multinomial Logit Model of Intercity Travel Mode Choice Behavior for All Trips in Libya

    OpenAIRE

    Manssour A. Abdulsalam Bin Miskeen; Ahmed Mohamed Alhodairi; Riza Atiq Abdullah Bin O. K. Rahmat

    2013-01-01

    In the planning point of view, it is essential to have mode choice, due to the massive amount of incurred in transportation systems. The intercity travellers in Libya have distinct features, as against travellers from other countries, which includes cultural and socioeconomic factors. Consequently, the goal of this study is to recognize the behavior of intercity travel using disaggregate models, for projecting the demand of nation-level intercity travel in Libya. Multinom...

  14. Identifying response styles: A latent-class bilinear multinomial logit model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Rosmalen, J.; van Herk, H.; Groenen, P.J.F.

    2010-01-01

    Respondents can vary strongly in the way they use rating scales. Specifically, respondents can exhibit a variety of response styles, which threatens the validity of the responses. The purpose of this article Is to investigate how response style and content of the items affect rating scale responses.

  15. Use of negative multinomial linear models to investigate environmental effects on community structure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    A frequent goal in ecology is to understand the relationships between biological communities and their environment. Anderson and McCardle (2001) provided a nonparametric method, known as Permanova, that is often used for this purpose. Permanova represents a significant advance,...

  16. Measuring political sentiment on Twitter: factor-optimal design for multinomial inverse regression

    OpenAIRE

    Taddy, Matt

    2012-01-01

    This article presents a short case study in text analysis: the scoring of Twitter posts for positive, negative, or neutral sentiment directed towards particular US politicians. The study requires selection of a sub-sample of representative posts for sentiment scoring, a common and costly aspect of sentiment mining. As a general contribution, our application is preceded by a proposed algorithm for maximizing sampling efficiency. In particular, we outline and illustrate greedy selection of docu...

  17. Analysis of Functional Data with Focus on Multinomial Regression and Multilevel Data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mousavi, Seyed Nourollah

    Functional data analysis (FDA) is a fast growing area in statistical research with increasingly diverse range of application from economics, medicine, agriculture, chemometrics, etc. Functional regression is an area of FDA which has received the most attention both in aspects of application...... and methodological development. Our main Functional data analysis (FDA) is a fast growing area in statistical research with increasingly diverse range of application from economics, medicine, agriculture, chemometrics, etc. Functional regression is an area of FDA which has received the most attention both in aspects...

  18. The Dirichet-Multinomial model for multivariate randomized response data and small samples

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Avetisyan, Marianna; Fox, Gerardus J.A.

    2012-01-01

    In survey sampling the randomized response (RR) technique can be used to obtain truthful answers to sensitive questions. Although the individual answers are masked due to the RR technique, individual (sensitive) response rates can be estimated when observing multivariate response data. The

  19. The Dirichlet-Multinomial Model for Multivariate Randomized Response Data and Small Samples

    Science.gov (United States)

    Avetisyan, Marianna; Fox, Jean-Paul

    2012-01-01

    In survey sampling the randomized response (RR) technique can be used to obtain truthful answers to sensitive questions. Although the individual answers are masked due to the RR technique, individual (sensitive) response rates can be estimated when observing multivariate response data. The beta-binomial model for binary RR data will be generalized…

  20. Wage mobility in Europe. A comparative analysis using restricted multinomial logit regression

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pavlopoulos, D.; Muffels, R.; Vermunt, J.K.

    2010-01-01

    In this paper, we investigate cross-country differences in wage mobility in Europe using the European Community Household Panel. The paper is particularly focused on examining the impact of economic conditions, welfare state regimes and employment regulation on wage mobility. We apply a log-linear

  1. Generalized Partial Least Squares Approach for Nominal Multinomial Logit Regression Models with a Functional Covariate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albaqshi, Amani Mohammed H.

    2017-01-01

    Functional Data Analysis (FDA) has attracted substantial attention for the last two decades. Within FDA, classifying curves into two or more categories is consistently of interest to scientists, but multi-class prediction within FDA is challenged in that most classification tools have been limited to binary response applications. The functional…

  2. A Multinomial Logit Approach to Estimating Regional Inventories by Product Class

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawrence Teeter; Xiaoping Zhou

    1998-01-01

    Current timber inventory projections generally lack information on inventory by product classes. Most models available for inventory projection and linked to supply analyses are limited to projecting aggregate softwood and hardwood. The objective of this research is to develop a methodology to distribute the volume on each FIA survey plot to product classes and...

  3. Using multinomial logistic regression analysis to understand anglers willingness to substitute other fishing locations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woo-Yong Hyun; Robert B. Ditton

    2007-01-01

    The concept of recreation substitutability has been a continuing research topic for outdoor recreation researchers. This study explores the relationships among variables regarding the willingness to substitute one location for another location. The objectives of the study are 1) to ascertain and predict the extent to which saltwater anglers were willing to substitute...

  4. Determination of the Factors Influencing Store Preference in Erzurum by a Multinomial Logit Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hüseyin ÖZER

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available The main objective of this study is to determine factors influencing store preference of the store costumers in Erzurum in terms of some characteristics of the store and its product and costumers’ demographic characteristics (sex, age, marital status, level of education and their income level. In order to carry out this objective, Pearson chi-square test is applied to determine whether there is a relationship between the store preference and customer, stores, and some characteristics of products and a multinominal logit model is fitted by stepwise regression method to the cross-section data compiled from a questionnaire applied to 384 store costumers in the center of Erzurum province. According to the model estimation and test results, the variables of marital status (married, education (primary and cheapness (unimportant for Migros; education (middle for Özmar and marital status (married for the other stores are determined as statistically significant at the level of 5 percent

  5. Mixed multinomial logit model for out-of-home leisure activity choice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Grigolon, A.B.; Kemperman, A.D.A.M.; Timmermans, H.J.P.

    2013-01-01

    This paper documents the design and results of a study on the factors influencing the choice of out-of-home leisure activities. Influencing factors seem related to socio-demographic characteristics, personal preferences, characteristics of the built environment and other aspects of the activities

  6. PREMIM and EMIM: tools for estimation of maternal, imprinting and interaction effects using multinomial modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Howey Richard

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Here we present two new computer tools, PREMIM and EMIM, for the estimation of parental and child genetic effects, based on genotype data from a variety of different child-parent configurations. PREMIM allows the extraction of child-parent genotype data from standard-format pedigree data files, while EMIM uses the extracted genotype data to perform subsequent statistical analysis. The use of genotype data from the parents as well as from the child in question allows the estimation of complex genetic effects such as maternal genotype effects, maternal-foetal interactions and parent-of-origin (imprinting effects. These effects are estimated by EMIM, incorporating chosen assumptions such as Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium or exchangeability of parental matings as required. Results In application to simulated data, we show that the inference provided by EMIM is essentially equivalent to that provided by alternative (competing software packages such as MENDEL and LEM. However, PREMIM and EMIM (used in combination considerably outperform MENDEL and LEM in terms of speed and ease of execution. Conclusions Together, EMIM and PREMIM provide easy-to-use command-line tools for the analysis of pedigree data, giving unbiased estimates of parental and child genotype relative risks.

  7. A Multinomial Model of Fertility Choice and Offspring Sex-Ratios in India

    OpenAIRE

    Rubiana Chamarbagwala; Martin Ranger

    2007-01-01

    Fertility decline in developing countries may have unexpected demographic consequences. Although lower fertility improves nutrition, health, and human capital investments for surviving children, little is known about the relationship between fertility outcomes and female-male offspring sex-ratios. Particularly in countries with a cultural preference for sons, like India and China, fertility decline may deteriorate the already imbalanced sex-ratios. We use the fertility histories of over 90,00...

  8. INCLUSION OF THE LATENT PERSONALITY VARIABLE IN MULTINOMIAL LOGIT MODELS USING THE 16PF PSYCHOMETRIC TEST

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    JORGE E. CÓRDOBA MAQUILÓN

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Los modelos de demanda de viajes utilizan principalmente los atributos modales y las características socioeconómicas como variables explicativas. También se ha establecido que las actitudes y percepciones influyen en el comportamiento de los usuarios. Sin embargo, las variables psicológicas del individuo condicionan la conducta del usuario. En este estudio se incluyó la variable latente personalidad, en la estimación del modelo híbrido de elección discreta, el cual constituye una buena alternativa para incorporar los efectos de los factores subjetivos. La variable latente personalidad se evaluó con la prueba psicométrica 16PF de validez internacional. El artículo analiza los resultados de la aplicación de este modelo a una población de empleados y docentes universitarios, y también propone un camino para la utilización de pruebas psicométricas en los modelos híbridos de elección discreta. Nuestros resultados muestran que los modelos híbridos que incluyen variables latentes psicológicas son superiores a los modelos tradicionales que ignoran los efectos de la conducta de los usuarios.

  9. Reasons for not buying a car : a probit-selection multinomial logit choice model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gao, Y.; Rasouli, S.; Timmermans, H.J.P.

    2014-01-01

    Generating and maintaining gradients of cell density and extracellular matrix (ECM) components is a prerequisite for the development of functionality of healthy tissue. Therefore, gaining insights into the drivers of spatial organization of cells and the role of ECM during tissue morphogenesis is

  10. Identifying Unknown Response Styles: A Latent-Class Bilinear Multinomial Logit Model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J.M. van Rosmalen (Joost); H. van Herk (Hester); P.J.F. Groenen (Patrick)

    2007-01-01

    textabstractRespondents can vary significantly in the way they use rating scales. Specifically, respondents can exhibit varying degrees of response style, which threatens the validity of the responses. The purpose of this article is to investigate to what extent rating scale responses show response

  11. Contribution of chronic conditions to functional limitations using a multinomial outcome: Results for the older population in Belgium and Brazil

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Yokota, R.T.C. (Renata T.C.); W.J. Nusselder (Wilma); J-M. Robine (Jean-Marie); J. Tafforeau (Jean); P. Deboosere (Patrick); Moura, L. (Lenildo); Andrade, S.S.C.A. (Silvânia S.C.A.); Castro, S.S. (Shamyr S.); H. van Oyen (Herman)

    2017-01-01

    textabstractBackground: The global phenomenon of population ageing is creating new challenges in both high and middle income countries, as functional limitations are expected to increase with age. The attribution method has been proposed to identify which conditions contribute most to disability

  12. A multinomial-logit ordered-probit model for jointly analyzing crash avoidance maneuvers and crash severity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaplan, Sigal; Prato, Carlo Giacomo

    ' propensity to engage in various corrective maneuvers in the case of the critical event of vehicle travelling. Five lateral and speed control maneuvers are considered: “braking”, “steering”, “braking & steering”, and “other maneuvers”, in addition to a “no action” option. The analyzed data are retrieved from...... the United States National Automotive Sampling System General Estimates System (GES) crash database for the years 2005-2009. Results show (i) the correlation between crash avoidance maneuvers and crash severity, and (ii) the link between drivers' attributes, risky driving behavior, road characteristics...

  13. Survival analysis with covariates in combination with multinomial analysis to parametrize time to event for multi-state models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Feenstra, T.L.; Postmus, D.; Quik, E.H.; Langendijk, H.; Krabbe, P.F.M.

    Objectives: Recent ISPOR Good practice guidelines as well as literature encourage to use a single distribution rather than the latent failure approach to model time to event for patient level simulation models with multiple competing outcomes. Aim was to apply the preferred method of a single

  14. Predicting Teacher Value-Added Results in Non-Tested Subjects Based on Confounding Variables: A Multinomial Logistic Regression

    Science.gov (United States)

    Street, Nathan Lee

    2017-01-01

    Teacher value-added measures (VAM) are designed to provide information regarding teachers' causal impact on the academic growth of students while controlling for exogenous variables. While some researchers contend VAMs successfully and authentically measure teacher causality on learning, others suggest VAMs cannot adequately control for exogenous…

  15. Application of binomial and multinomial probability statistics to the sampling design process of a global grain tracing and recall system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Small, coded, pill-sized tracers embedded in grain are proposed as a method for grain traceability. A sampling process for a grain traceability system was designed and investigated by applying probability statistics using a science-based sampling approach to collect an adequate number of tracers fo...

  16. Survival analysis with covariates in combination with multinomial analysis to parametrize time to event for multi-state models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Feenstra, T.L.; Postmus, D.; Quik, E.H.; Langendijk, H.; Krabbe, P.F.M.

    2013-01-01

    Objectives: Recent ISPOR Good practice guidelines as well as literature encourage to use a single distribution rather than the latent failure approach to model time to event for patient level simulation models with multiple competing outcomes. Aim was to apply the preferred method of a single

  17. The Design and Analysis of Salmonid Tagging Studies in the Columbia Basin; Volume XII; A Multinomial Model for Estimating Ocean Survival from Salmonid Coded Wire-Tag Data.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ryding, Kristen E.; Skalski, John R.

    1999-06-01

    The purpose of this report is to illustrate the development of a stochastic model using coded wire-tag (CWT) release and age-at-return data, in order to regress first year ocean survival probabilities against coastal ocean conditions and climate covariates.

  18. Maternal and anaesthesia-related risk factors and incidence of spinal anaesthesia-induced hypotension in elective caesarean section: A multinomial logistic regression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fakherpour, Atousa; Ghaem, Haleh; Fattahi, Zeinabsadat; Zaree, Samaneh

    2018-01-01

    Although spinal anaesthesia (SA) is nowadays the preferred anaesthesia technique for caesarean section (CS), it is associated with considerable haemodynamic effects, such as maternal hypotension. This study aimed to evaluate a wide range of variables (related to parturient and anaesthesia techniques) associated with the incidence of different degrees of SA-induced hypotension during elective CS. This prospective study was conducted on 511 mother-infant pairs, in which the mother underwent elective CS under SA. The data were collected through preset proforma containing three parts related to the parturient, anaesthetic techniques and a table for recording maternal blood pressure. It was hypothesized that some maternal (such as age) and anaesthesia-related risk factors (such as block height) were associated with occurance of SA-induced hypotension during elective CS. The incidence of mild, moderate and severe hypotension was 20%, 35% and 40%, respectively. Eventually, ten risk factors were found to be associated with hypotension, including age >35 years, body mass index ≥25 kg/m 2 , 11-20 kg weight gain, gravidity ≥4, history of hypotension, baseline systolic blood pressure (SBP) 100 beats/min in maternal modelling, fluid preloading ≥1000 ml, adding sufentanil to bupivacaine and sensory block height >T 4 in anaesthesia-related modelling ( P < 0.05). Age, body mass index, weight gain, gravidity, history of hypotension, baseline SBP and heart rate, fluid preloading, adding sufentanil to bupivacaine and sensory block hieght were the main risk factors identified in the study for SA-induced hypotension during CS.

  19. Economic analysis of the potential impact of climate change on recreational trout fishing in the Southern Appalachian Mountains: An appication of a nested multinomial logti model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soeun Ahn; Joseph E. de Steiguer; Raymond B. Palmquist; Thomas P. Holmes

    2000-01-01

    Global warming due to the enhanced greenhouse effect through human activities has become a major public policy issue in recent years. The present study focuses on the potential economic impact of climate change on recreational trout fishing in the Southern Appalachian Mountains of North Carolina. Significant reductions in trout habitat and/or populations are...

  20. Liberalización económica y crecimiento económico. Modelo Logit Multinomial aplicado a la metodología de "Doing Business"

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alberto Gómez Mejía

    2011-01-01

    de Doing Business explican cómo, cuando un país implementa estos criterios, incrementa las posibilidades de pasar a un nivel de ingreso per cápita superior, lo cual implica mayor crecimiento económico y potencial desarrollo económico.

  1. A comparison of a new multinomial stopping rule with stopping rules of fleming and gehan in single arm phase II cancer clinical trials

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tu Dongsheng

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Response rate (RR alone may be insensitive to drug activity in phase II trials. Early progressive disease (EPD could improve sensitivity as well as increase stage I stopping rates. This study compares the previously developed dual endpoint stopping rule (DESR, which incorporates both RR and EPD into a two-stage, phase II trial, with rules using only RR. Methods Stopping rules according to the DESR were compared with studies conducted under the Fleming (16 trials or Gehan (23 trials designs. The RR hypothesis for the DESR was consistent with the comparison studies (ralt = 0.2, rnul = 0.05. Two parameter sets were used for EPD rates of interest and disinterest respectively (epdalt, epdnul: (0.4, 0.6 and (0.3, 0.5. Results Compared with Fleming, the DESR was more likely to allow stage two of accrual and to reject the null hypothesis (Hnul after stage two, with rejection being more common with EPD parameters (0.4, 0.6 than (0.3, 0.5. Compared with Gehan, both DESR parameter sets accepted Hnul in 15 trials after stage I compared with 8 trials by Gehan, with consistent conclusions in all 23 trials after stage II. Conclusions The DESR may reject Hnul when EPD rates alone are low, and thereby may improve phase II trial sensitivity to active, cytostatic drugs having limited response rates. Conversely, the DESR may invoke early stopping when response rates are low and EPD rates are high, thus shortening trials when drug activity is unlikely. EPD parameters should be chosen specific to each trial.

  2. Comparing Multiple-Group Multinomial Log-Linear Models for Multidimensional Skill Distributions in the General Diagnostic Model. Research Report. ETS RR-08-35

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Xueli; von Davier, Matthias

    2008-01-01

    The general diagnostic model (GDM) utilizes located latent classes for modeling a multidimensional proficiency variable. In this paper, the GDM is extended by employing a log-linear model for multiple populations that assumes constraints on parameters across multiple groups. This constrained model is compared to log-linear models that assume…

  3. Application of Multinomial Probit Model in Analyzing Factors Affecting the Occupation of Graduated Students from the University of Agricultural Applied-Science

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Mohammadi

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Introduction:Scientificand practicaltrainingwith an emphasis onoperation andapplication of what is taught and having an empiricalapproachto education isa more suitable approach for creating jobs. Preparation of educational needs of the agricultural sector by scientificand practicaltraining and providingemploymentin agreement with education and skills is one of the most important programs in order to achieve the objectives of comprehensive development of the country. An imbalance seems to exist between the processes and materials in university courses and the skills and abilities needed by the labor market and this is the most importantreason for the failureof the university graduatesin finding employment. This studyhas beendone for understandingthe type of jobof agricultural graduatesof training center of Jihad-e-Keshavarzi in Mashhad and the factor saffecting their employment. Materials and Methods: This study is an applied research and the statistical population is 167 and includes all the students who had earned a Bachelor’s degree who had come to receive their graduation certificates in 2011. The dependent variable is type of job which includes five categories of employment in the public sector related to education, employ men unrelated to the government, employment related tothe privatesector andthe unemployed who were seeking workin the private sector. Independent variables includegender,quotainuniversityadmissions, the level of interestin thefield of study,satisfaction withthe discipline, evaluationand trainingof graduatesofvocational skillsacquired incollegegraduates'assessmentof thework culturein the societyand evaluation oflack ofcapitalas a factor preventingemployment in the academicfield. Information was collected through questionnaires and the multiple probit mode lwas used. Results and discussion: The results ofthe survey showthatjobsof graduates are divided intofour categoriesincluding:Related to the field of study and governmental job (21%, non-related to field of study and governmental job (25.5%, related to field of study and private job (25.7, non-related to field of study and private job (8.4%, and 41.5% of graduates wereunemployed. 77% of the statistical population said that the cause of unemployment is lack of capital. The variables of professionalism and evaluation of work culture in the statistical population was intermediate. The model showed that gender, field of study choice based on the level of interest, satisfaction with the studies, andlack of capital as a barrier to employment, and evaluation of the educational and professional skills acquired during the studieshave a significantimpact on employment. The regression equation as a whole is significant. According to this, thelikelihoodof womenworkingingovernmentjobsand privateand non-private was lower than that of men. With increasinginterestin thefield of study,the possibility ofworkinginrelated and unrelatedprivate jobsincreased. By increasing thedegreeofsatisfaction, the possibility ofworkingingovernmentjobsincreased. The lack of funds for activities in the field of employment is one of the problems. Therefore, the more thelack of capitalto start andcontinueis highlighted, the more thetendency of people toget employed in a public officeand to avoidthe possibility ofsetting upprivate businesses is. Aboutthe possibility of working in unrelated government jobs, none of the variablesshoweda significant relationship. And the possibility ofworkinginprivatejobs, genderandlevel ofinterest inthe choiceof the field of studyshoweda significant relationship. Women are facing more difficulties than men in employmentin the agricultural sector. Conclusion:Therisk ofunemploymentis higheramong womengraduates since the usual trend is to create better condition and motivations formale farmerswho live in villages. Also they should be given them some low-interest loans usingbank’s financialresources until economicactivitiesare undertaken by them according totheir knowledge. Moreover, the role of themotivations, creativity andinnovation, creatingvalue-addedproducts, and thefunctional andoperationaltraininginhigher education centersofagriculture must be emphasized.Thelack of capitalasa major obstaclein this fieldmust also beconsidered. Special attention should be to theeducational and professionalskillsacquiredin the schoolthat could result inself-employedjobsin the private sectorandevenself-employedjobs in the agricultural sector. Activating skill development centers andentrepreneurshipinthe applied sciencelearning centers must be aimed at providing aplaceof interaction anddialogue which canplay a constructive roleinthe futureemploymentof graduates,and theidentification oftalents too. Given that themajority ofgraduateshave suggested thatcareerguidance has not been provided for them, the role of such centersisalso of high importance.

  4. Maternal and anaesthesia-related risk factors and incidence of spinal anaesthesia-induced hypotension in elective caesarean section: A multinomial logistic regression

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Atousa Fakherpour

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Background and Aims: Although spinal anaesthesia (SA is nowadays the preferred anaesthesia technique for caesarean section (CS, it is associated with considerable haemodynamic effects, such as maternal hypotension. This study aimed to evaluate a wide range of variables (related to parturient and anaesthesia techniques associated with the incidence of different degrees of SA-induced hypotension during elective CS. Methods: This prospective study was conducted on 511 mother–infant pairs, in which the mother underwent elective CS under SA. The data were collected through preset proforma containing three parts related to the parturient, anaesthetic techniques and a table for recording maternal blood pressure. It was hypothesized that some maternal (such as age and anaesthesia-related risk factors (such as block height were associated with occurance of SA-induced hypotension during elective CS. Results: The incidence of mild, moderate and severe hypotension was 20%, 35% and 40%, respectively. Eventually, ten risk factors were found to be associated with hypotension, including age >35 years, body mass index ≥25 kg/m2, 11–20 kg weight gain, gravidity ≥4, history of hypotension, baseline systolic blood pressure (SBP 100 beats/min in maternal modelling, fluid preloading ≥1000 ml, adding sufentanil to bupivacaine and sensory block height >T4in anaesthesia-related modelling (P < 0.05. Conclusion: Age, body mass index, weight gain, gravidity, history of hypotension, baseline SBP and heart rate, fluid preloading, adding sufentanil to bupivacaine and sensory block hieght were the main risk factors identified in the study for SA-induced hypotension during CS.

  5. A comparison of generalized multinomial logit, random parameters logit, wtp-space and latent class models to studying consumers' preferences for animal welfare

    OpenAIRE

    Kallas, Zein; Borrisser-Pairó,, Francesc; Martínez, Beatriz; Vieira, Ceferina; Panella-Riera, Nuria; Olivar, Maria Angels; Gil Roig, José María

    2016-01-01

    The European societies are requiring that animals to be raised as closely as possible to their natural conditions. The growing concerns about animal welfare is resulting in continuous modifications of regulations and policies that led to ban of a number of intensive farming methods. The European authorities consider the pig welfare as a priority issue. They are studying to ban surgical pig castration by 2018, which may seriously affect markets and consumers due to boar tainted-meat. This stud...

  6. Patterns and correlates of solid waste disposal practices in Dar es ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    USER

    collection. Key words: Solid waste, garbage, waste disposal, waste management, Multinomial Logit model. INTRODUCTION. Urbanization introduces society to a new, modern way of ..... Multinomial logistic estimation. .... The trend of using.

  7. Modeling Word Burstiness Using the Dirichlet Distribution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Rasmus Elsborg; Kauchak, David; Elkan, Charles

    2005-01-01

    Multinomial distributions are often used to model text documents. However, they do not capture well the phenomenon that words in a document tend to appear in bursts: if a word appears once, it is more likely to appear again. In this paper, we propose the Dirichlet compound multinomial model (DCM......) as an alternative to the multinomial. The DCM model has one additional degree of freedom, which allows it to capture burstiness. We show experimentally that the DCM is substantially better than the multinomial at modeling text data, measured by perplexity. We also show using three standard document collections...

  8. Composite Linear Models | Division of Cancer Prevention

    Science.gov (United States)

    By Stuart G. Baker The composite linear models software is a matrix approach to compute maximum likelihood estimates and asymptotic standard errors for models for incomplete multinomial data. It implements the method described in Baker SG. Composite linear models for incomplete multinomial data. Statistics in Medicine 1994;13:609-622. The software includes a library of thirty

  9. 630 understanding farmers' response to climate variability in nigeria

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Osondu

    Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, and multinomial logit models. Farmers used multiple adaptation strategies; Crop Diversification (CD), Soil ... Increases in temperature, cloud ... and the effect of climate elements and their extreme ...

  10. Labour market transitions and job satisfaction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    G.E. Bijwaard (Govert); A. van Dijk (Bram); J. de Koning (Jaap)

    2003-01-01

    textabstractThe paper investigates the relationship between job satisfaction and labour market transitions. Using a multinomial logit model, a model is estimated on the basis of individual data in which transitions are explained from individual characteristics, job characteristics, dissatisfaction

  11. Longitudinal categorical data analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Sutradhar, Brajendra C

    2014-01-01

    This is the first book in longitudinal categorical data analysis with parametric correlation models developed based on dynamic relationships among repeated categorical responses. This book is a natural generalization of the longitudinal binary data analysis to the multinomial data setup with more than two categories. Thus, unlike the existing books on cross-sectional categorical data analysis using log linear models, this book uses multinomial probability models both in cross-sectional and longitudinal setups. A theoretical foundation is provided for the analysis of univariate multinomial responses, by developing models systematically for the cases with no covariates as well as categorical covariates, both in cross-sectional and longitudinal setups. In the longitudinal setup, both stationary and non-stationary covariates are considered. These models have also been extended to the bivariate multinomial setup along with suitable covariates. For the inferences, the book uses the generalized quasi-likelihood as w...

  12. The Smoothed Dirichlet Distribution: Understanding Cross-Entropy Ranking in Information Retrieval

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Nallapati, Ramesh

    2006-01-01

    .... Another related and interesting observation is that the naive Bayes model for text classification uses the same multinomial distribution to model documents but in contrast, employs document-log...

  13. Optimising import phytosanitary inspection

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Surkov, I.

    2007-01-01

    Keywords: quarantine pest, plant health policy, optimization, import phytosanitary inspection, ‘reduced checks’, optimal allocation of resources, multinomial logistic regression, the Netherlands World trade is a major vector of spread of quarantine plant pests. Border phytosanitary inspection

  14. Download this PDF file

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    USER

    2015-09-23

    Sep 23, 2015 ... diversification of income among the poultry farmers in the study area. Results ... Insurance Company (NAIC) was ... decades and different country case studies .... also reduce the total cost of operation. .... Multinomial logistic.

  15. Perceived fairness of the division of household labor: A comparative study in 29 countries

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jansen, L.; Weber, T.; Kraaykamp, G.L.M.; Verbakel, C.M.C.

    2016-01-01

    This study investigates the relationship between the division of household labor and individuals' perceived fairness concerning this division. We applied multilevel multinomial logistic regression to analyze data on both men and women across 29 countries using the International Social Survey

  16. West African Journal of Industrial and Academic Research - Vol 13 ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    On The Comparison of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Multinomial Logistic ... ICT-Based Framework for Improved Food Security in Nigeria · EMAIL FREE FULL ... towards HIV/AIDS Patients in Zambia: A Generalized Additive Mixed Model ...

  17. Bayesian networks with examples in R

    CERN Document Server

    Scutari, Marco

    2014-01-01

    Introduction. The Discrete Case: Multinomial Bayesian Networks. The Continuous Case: Gaussian Bayesian Networks. More Complex Cases. Theory and Algorithms for Bayesian Networks. Real-World Applications of Bayesian Networks. Appendices. Bibliography.

  18. Analysis of Preference Data Using Intermediate Test Statistic Abstract

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    PROF. O. E. OSUAGWU

    2013-06-01

    Jun 1, 2013 ... West African Journal of Industrial and Academic Research Vol.7 No. 1 June ... Keywords:-Preference data, Friedman statistic, multinomial test statistic, intermediate test statistic. ... new method and consequently a new statistic ...

  19. Determinants of agricultural micro-credit repayment-evidence from ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Agro-Science ... for the study while descriptive statistics and multinomial binary logit model were employed for data analyses. ... on long term funds (without prejudice to the existing revolving loan mechanism) such as the pension contributions, ...

  20. Probabilistic models for 2D active shape recognition using Fourier descriptors and mutual information

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Govender, N

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available information to improve the initial shape recognition results. We propose an initial system which performs shape recognition using the euclidean distances of Fourier descriptors. To improve upon these results we build multinomial and Gaussian probabilistic...

  1. Brief Report: Association of Myositis Autoantibodies, Clinical Features, and Environmental Exposures at Illness Onset With Disease Course in Juvenile Myositis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Habers, G Esther A; Huber, Adam M; Mamyrova, Gulnara; Targoff, Ira N; O'Hanlon, Terrance P; Adams, Sharon; Pandey, Janardan P; Boonacker, Chantal; van Brussel, Marco; Miller, Frederick W; van Royen-Kerkhof, Annet; Rider, Lisa G

    2016-03-01

    To identify early factors associated with disease course in patients with juvenile idiopathic inflammatory myopathies (IIMs). Univariable and multivariable multinomial logistic regression analyses were performed in a large juvenile IIM registry (n = 365) and included demographic characteristics, early clinical features, serum muscle enzyme levels, myositis autoantibodies, environmental exposures, and immunogenetic polymorphisms. Multivariable associations with chronic or polycyclic courses compared to a monocyclic course included myositis-specific autoantibodies (multinomial odds ratio [OR] 4.2 and 2.8, respectively), myositis-associated autoantibodies (multinomial OR 4.8 and 3.5), and a documented infection within 6 months of illness onset (multinomial OR 2.5 and 4.7). A higher overall clinical symptom score at diagnosis was associated with chronic or monocyclic courses compared to a polycyclic course. Furthermore, severe illness onset was associated with a chronic course compared to monocyclic or polycyclic courses (multinomial OR 2.1 and 2.6, respectively), while anti-p155/140 autoantibodies were associated with chronic or polycyclic courses compared to a monocyclic course (multinomial OR 3.9 and 2.3, respectively). Additional univariable associations of a chronic course compared to a monocyclic course included photosensitivity, V-sign or shawl sign rashes, and cuticular overgrowth (OR 2.2-3.2). The mean ultraviolet index and highest ultraviolet index in the month before diagnosis were associated with a chronic course compared to a polycyclic course in boys (OR 1.5 and 1.3), while residing in the Northwest was less frequently associated with a chronic course (OR 0.2). Our findings indicate that myositis autoantibodies, in particular anti-p155/140, and a number of early clinical features and environmental exposures are associated with a chronic course in patients with juvenile IIM. These findings suggest that early factors, which are associated with poorer

  2. Exits from Temporary Jobs in Europe: A Competing Risks Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    D'Addio, Anna Christina; Rosholm, Michael

    2005-01-01

    We study transitions out of temporary jobs using the waves 1994-1999 of the European Community Household Panel applying a discrete time duration model. Specifically, we use a multinomial logitmodel distinguishing between exits into permanent employment and non-employment. Two different specificat......We study transitions out of temporary jobs using the waves 1994-1999 of the European Community Household Panel applying a discrete time duration model. Specifically, we use a multinomial logitmodel distinguishing between exits into permanent employment and non-employment. Two different...

  3. Simplified Freeman-Tukey test statistics for testing probabilities in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper presents the simplified version of the Freeman-Tukey test statistic for testing hypothesis about multinomial probabilities in one, two and multidimensional contingency tables that does not require calculating the expected cell frequencies before test of significance. The simplified method established new criteria of ...

  4. Primary and Secondary Socialization Impacts on Support for Same-Sex Marriage after Legalization in the Netherlands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lubbers, Marcel; Jaspers, Eva; Ultee, Wout

    2009-01-01

    Two years after the legalization of same-sex marriages in the Netherlands, 65% of the Dutch population largely or completely disagrees with the statement "gay marriage should be abolished." This article shows, by way of multinomial logistic regression analysis of survey data, which socializing agents influence one's attitude toward…

  5. A Comparison of Alternative Specifications of the College Attendance Equation with an Extension to two-stage Selectivity-Correction Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hilmer, Michael J.

    2001-01-01

    Estimates a college-attendance equation for a common set of students (from the High School and Beyond Survey) using three popular econometric specifications: the multinomial logit, the ordered probit, and the bivariate probit. Estimated marginal effects do not differ significantly across the three specifications. Choice of specification may not…

  6. Foreign Diploma versus Immigrant Background: Determinants of Labour Market Success or Failure?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Storen, Liv Anne; Wiers-Jenssen, Jannecke

    2010-01-01

    This article compares the labour market situation of graduates with different types of international background. The authors look at four groups of graduates: immigrants and ethnic Norwegians graduated in Norway and immigrants and ethnic Norwegians graduated abroad. By employing multinomial logistic regression analyses the authors find that ethnic…

  7. Sequential and Simultaneous Logit: A Nested Model.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Ophem, J.C.M.; Schram, A.J.H.C.

    1997-01-01

    A nested model is presented which has both the sequential and the multinomial logit model as special cases. This model provides a simple test to investigate the validity of these specifications. Some theoretical properties of the model are discussed. In the analysis a distribution function is

  8. Leaving home and entering the housing market.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Clark, W.A.V.; Mulder, C.H.

    2000-01-01

    We use a multinomial choice model of owning a home, owning a trailer, or renting to examine the housing-market entry of young adults in the USA after they have left the parental home. We also model the choice between renting independently and sharing with roommates. We show that the likelihood of

  9. Multidimensional Computerized Adaptive Testing for Indonesia Junior High School Biology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuo, Bor-Chen; Daud, Muslem; Yang, Chih-Wei

    2015-01-01

    This paper describes a curriculum-based multidimensional computerized adaptive test that was developed for Indonesia junior high school Biology. In adherence to the Indonesian curriculum of different Biology dimensions, 300 items was constructed, and then tested to 2238 students. A multidimensional random coefficients multinomial logit model was…

  10. Why entrepreneurs do not expect their businesses: lessons from Lithuania.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Aidis, R.K.; Mickiewicz, T.

    2006-01-01

    This article applies a multinomial logit estimator to investigate which factors affect SME owners' expectations to grow their businesses in Lithuania. Our findings provide evidence that SME owners' human capital (education) matters and that growth expectations are positively related to exporting. In

  11. False Memory for Orthographically versus Semantically Similar Words in Adolescents with Dyslexia: A Fuzzy-Trace Theory Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Obidzinski, Michal; Nieznanski, Marek

    2017-01-01

    The presented research was conducted in order to investigate the connections between developmental dyslexia and the functioning of verbatim and gist memory traces--assumed in the fuzzy-trace theory. The participants were 71 high school students (33 with dyslexia and 38 without learning difficulties). The modified procedure and multinomial model of…

  12. American Youths' Access to Substance Abuse Treatment: Does Type of Treatment Facility Matter?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lo, Celia C.; Cheng, Tyrone C.

    2013-01-01

    Using data from the 2007 National Survey on Drug Use and Health, this study examines whether several social exclusion and psychological factors affect adolescents' receipt of substance abuse treatment. Multinomial logistic regression techniques were used to analyze data. The study asked how the specified factors provide pathways to receipt of…

  13. An adaptive method for γ spectra smoothing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xiao Gang; Zhou Chunlin; Li Tiantuo; Han Feng; Di Yuming

    2001-01-01

    Adaptive wavelet method and multinomial fitting gliding method are used for smoothing γ spectra, respectively, and then FWHM of 1332 keV peak of 60 Co and activities of 238 U standard specimen are calculated. Calculated results show that adaptive wavelet method is better than the other

  14. Discrete choice models for commuting interactions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rouwendal, Jan; Mulalic, Ismir; Levkovich, Or

    An emerging quantitative spatial economics literature models commuting interactions by a gravity equation that is mathematically equivalent to a multinomial logit model. This model is widely viewed as restrictive because of the independence of irrelevant alternatives (IIA) property that links sub...

  15. Relating cost-benefit analysis results with transport project decisions in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Annema, Jan Anne; Frenken, Koen|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/207145253; Koopmans, Carl; Kroesen, Maarten

    2017-01-01

    This paper relates the cost-benefit analysis (CBA) results of transportation policy proposals in the Netherlands with the decision to implement or abandon the proposal. The aim of this study is to explore the relation between the CBA results and decision-making. Multinomial logit regression models

  16. Relating cost-benefit analysis results with transport project decisions in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Annema, J.A.; Frenken, Koen; Koopmans, Carl; Kroesen, M.

    2017-01-01

    This paper relates the cost-benefit analysis (CBA) results of transportation policy proposals in the Netherlands with the decision to implement or abandon the proposal. The aim of this study is to explore the relation between the CBA results and decision-making. Multinomial logit regression

  17. A simplification of the likelihood ratio test statistic for testing ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The traditional likelihood ratio test statistic for testing hypothesis about goodness of fit of multinomial probabilities in one, two and multi – dimensional contingency table was simplified. Advantageously, using the simplified version of the statistic to test the null hypothesis is easier and faster because calculating the expected ...

  18. Has the Euro Affected the Choice of Invoicing Currency?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ligthart, J.E.; Werner, S.E.V.

    2010-01-01

    We present a new approach to study empirically the effect of the introduction of the euro on currency invoicing. Our approach uses a compositional multinomial logit model, in which currency choice depends on the characteristics of both the currency and the country. We use unique quarterly panel data

  19. Mind-Mindedness as a Multidimensional Construct: Appropriate and Nonattuned Mind-Related Comments Independently Predict Infant-Mother Attachment in a Socially Diverse Sample

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meins, Elizabeth; Fernyhough, Charles; de Rosnay, Marc; Arnott, Bronia; Leekam, Susan R.; Turner, Michelle

    2012-01-01

    In a socially diverse sample of 206 infant-mother pairs, we investigated predictors of infants' attachment security at 15 months, with a particular emphasis on mothers' tendency to comment appropriately or in a non-attuned manner on their 8-month-olds' internal states (so-called mind-mindedness). Multinomial logistic regression analyses showed…

  20. Modeling Unobserved Consideration Sets for Household Panel Data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J.E.M. van Nierop; R. Paap (Richard); B. Bronnenberg; Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans)

    2000-01-01

    textabstractWe propose a new method to model consumers' consideration and choice processes. We develop a parsimonious probit type model for consideration and a multinomial probit model for choice, given consideration. Unlike earlier models of consideration ours is not prone to the curse of

  1. The role of agri-business incentive on under-five child immunization ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A multinomial logistic regression model used to analyze the determinant of partial or noneimmunized. Maternal health practices and access to a motivating intervention are significant factors that ensure a parent/guardian's compliance to their child immunization. The study recommends sustainability and diversification of ...

  2. The joint choice of tenure, dwelling type, size and location: the effect of home-oriented versus culture-oriented lifestyle

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frenkel, Amnon; Kaplan, Sigal

    2014-01-01

    This study investigates knowledge-workers’ housing preferences in terms of tenure, dwelling type, location and size. The analysis is conducted by applying a joint multinomial-logit ordered-response model to the housing choices of knowledgeworkers residing in the Tel-Aviv metropolitan region and w...

  3. Savings in Public Services after the Crisis: A Multilevel Analysis of Public Preferences in the EU27 (Working Paper 8)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S.G.J. Van de Walle (Steven); S.R. Jilke (Sebastian)

    2012-01-01

    textabstractPolicy responses to the financial crisis can be divided into cyclical and anti-cyclical approaches. The former advocates reducing public spending in times of financial constraints. The latter approach advocates public spending to boost the economy. Using multinomial multilevel

  4. Test Design Project: Studies in Test Adequacy. Annual Report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilcox, Rand R.

    These studies in test adequacy focus on two problems: procedures for estimating reliability, and techniques for identifying ineffective distractors. Fourteen papers are presented on recent advances in measuring achievement (a response to Molenaar); "an extension of the Dirichlet-multinomial model that allows true score and guessing to be…

  5. Farmers' choice of cattle marketing channels under transaction cost ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The theoretical predictions of transaction cost economics were tested based on primary data collected from 230 cattle farm households in 13 communities of the Okhahlamba Local Municipality. The results of a multinomial logit regression revealed some unique insights. They showed that the probability of selling at auction ...

  6. Ordering the preference hierarchies for internal finance, bank laons, bond and share issue: evidence from Dutch firms

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Haan, L.; Hinloopen, J.

    2003-01-01

    We estimate the incremental financing decision for a sample of some 150 Dutch companies for the years 1984 through 1997, thereby distinguishing internal finance and three types of external finance: bank borrowing, bond issues, and share issues. First, we estimate a multinomial logit model, which

  7. Editorial

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Ada

    ppp ttt n ... !...!! ! 2. 1. 2. 1. 21. For the multinomial, the following properties of the ...... From the fore-going and within the limitation of the superpopulation model as assumed by ... Sampling Theory when the sampling units are of unequal sizes .

  8. A Typology of Work-Family Arrangements among Dual-Earner Couples in Norway

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kitterod, Ragni Hege; Lappegard, Trude

    2012-01-01

    A symmetrical family model of two workers or caregivers is a political goal in many western European countries. We explore how common this family type is in Norway, a country with high gender-equality ambitions, by using a multinomial latent class model to develop a typology of dual-earner couples with children based on the partners' allocations…

  9. A Multilevel Study of Students' Motivations of Studying Accounting: Implications for Employers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Law, Philip; Yuen, Desmond

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this study is to examine the influence of factors affecting students' choice of accounting as a study major in Hong Kong. Design/methodology/approach: Multinomial logistic regression and Hierarchical Generalized Linear Modeling (HGLM) are used to analyze the survey data for the level one and level two data, which is the…

  10. Patterns and correlates of solid waste disposal practices in Dar es ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This study examines the patterns and correlations of solid waste disposal practices among households in urbanized and populated Dar es Salaam city in Tanzania. The Tanzanian Household Budget Survey (HBS) data covering many households' characteristics was used. Multinomial Logit (MNL) model was applied to ...

  11. The Effects of Secondary Special Education Preparation in Reading: Research to Inform State Policy in a New Era

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knackstedt, Kimberly M.; Leko, Melinda M.; Siuty, Molly Baustien

    2018-01-01

    In this study, the authors present findings from a survey of 577 secondary special educators in a large Midwestern state regarding their reading pre-service and in-service teacher preparation and its effect on teachers' sense of preparedness for teaching reading to adolescents with disabilities. Six models were fitted using multinomial logistic…

  12. Support vector machines classifiers of physical activities in preschoolers

    Science.gov (United States)

    The goal of this study is to develop, test, and compare multinomial logistic regression (MLR) and support vector machines (SVM) in classifying preschool-aged children physical activity data acquired from an accelerometer. In this study, 69 children aged 3-5 years old were asked to participate in a s...

  13. Generalised Partially Linear Regression with Misclassified Data and an Application to Labour Market Transitions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dlugosz, Stephan; Mammen, Enno; Wilke, Ralf

    We consider the semiparametric generalised linear regression model which has mainstream empirical models such as the (partially) linear mean regression, logistic and multinomial regression as special cases. As an extension to related literature we allow a misclassified covariate to be interacted...

  14. Comparison of standard maximum likelihood classification and polytomous logistic regression used in remote sensing

    Science.gov (United States)

    John Hogland; Nedret Billor; Nathaniel Anderson

    2013-01-01

    Discriminant analysis, referred to as maximum likelihood classification within popular remote sensing software packages, is a common supervised technique used by analysts. Polytomous logistic regression (PLR), also referred to as multinomial logistic regression, is an alternative classification approach that is less restrictive, more flexible, and easy to interpret. To...

  15. Factors influencing the planning of social activities : empirical analysis of social interaction diary data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Berg, van den P.E.W.; Arentze, T.A.; Timmermans, H.J.P.

    2010-01-01

    Results of a study on the planning of social activities are reported. Data collected in the Netherlands from social interaction diaries were used to estimate a multinomial logistic regression model to analyze whether a social activity is prearranged, routine, or spontaneous as a function of personal

  16. Approximating The DCM

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Rasmus Elsborg

    2005-01-01

    The Dirichlet compound multinomial (DCM), which has recently been shown to be well suited for modeling for word burstiness in documents, is here investigated. A number of conceptual explanations that account for these recent results, are provided. An exponential family approximation of the DCM...

  17. Which Kindergarten Children Are at Greatest Risk for Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity and Conduct Disorder Symptomatology as Adolescents?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morgan, Paul L.; Li, Hui; Cook, Michael; Farkas, George; Hillemeier, Marianne M.; Lin, Yu-chu

    2016-01-01

    We sought to identify which kindergarten children are simultaneously at risk of moderate or severe symptomatology in both attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) and conduct disorder (CD) as adolescents. These risk factor estimates have not been previously available. We conducted multinomial logistic regression analyses of multiinformant…

  18. Brief Report: Sexual Orientation in Individuals with Autistic Traits--Population Based Study of 47,000 Adults in Stockholm County

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rudolph, Christiane E. S.; Lundin, Andreas; Åhs, Jill W.; Dalman, Christina; Kosidou, Kyriaki

    2018-01-01

    We examined the association between autistic traits and sexual orientation in a general adult population (N = 47,356). Autistic traits were measured with the ten items Autistic Quotient questionnaire using a cut-off score of = 6. Sexual orientation was assessed by self-report. Multinomial logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios (ORs)…

  19. How Effective Are Severe Disciplinary Policies? School Policies and Offending from Adolescence into Young Adulthood

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matjasko, Jennifer L.

    2011-01-01

    Based on the stage environment and the person environment fit perspectives, the current study examined the relation between school disciplinary policies and offending from adolescence into young adulthood. Using Waves I and III of the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (a.k.a., Add Health), hierarchical multinomial logistic…

  20. Utility of DSM-5 section III personality traits in differentiating borderline personality disorder from comparison groups

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bach, B; Sellbom, M; Bo, S

    2016-01-01

    with the categorical DSM-IV/5 diagnosis of BPD (n=101) from systematically matched samples of other PD patients (n=101) and healthy controls (n=101). This was investigated using one-way ANOVA and multinomial logistic regression analyses. RESULTS: Results indicated that Emotional Lability, Risk Taking...

  1. Predictors of Early Termination in a University Counseling Training Clinic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lampropoulos, Georgios K.; Schneider, Mercedes K.; Spengler, Paul M.

    2009-01-01

    Despite the existence of counseling dropout research, there are limited predictive data for counseling in training clinics. Potential predictor variables were investigated in this archival study of 380 client files in a university counseling training clinic. Multinomial logistic regression, predictive discriminant analysis, and classification and…

  2. So Close, yet So Far Away: Early vs. Late Dropouts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Yanli; Cragg, Kristina M.

    2013-01-01

    While some students drop out early in their academic career, others drop out close to completion. What similarities and differences exist between these early and late dropouts? Using a sample 3,520 first-time, full-time (FTFT) students seeking a bachelor's degree at a state university, this study employs multinomial logistic regression to model…

  3. The Role of Predictor Courses and Teams on Individual Student Success

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker-Eveleth, Lori Jo; O'Neill, Michele; Sisodiya, Sanjay R.

    2014-01-01

    Research suggests that diverse environments enhance conscious modes of thought, resulting in greater intellectual engagement and active thinking. Ordinal and multinomial logistic regression results indicate that accounting courses and business law classes are useful predictors of subsequent performance. Odds ratio estimates indicate that students…

  4. Retrieving unobserved consideration sets from household panel data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J.E.M. van Nierop; R. Paap (Richard); B. Bronnenberg; Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans); M. Wedel (Michel)

    2005-01-01

    textabstractWe propose a new model to describe consideration, consisting of a multivariate probit model component for consideration and a multinomial probit model component for choice, given consideration. The approach allows one to analyze stated consideration set data, revealed consideration set

  5. Bullying and PTSD Symptoms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Idsoe, Thormod; Dyregrov, Atle; Idsoe, Ella Cosmovici

    2012-01-01

    PTSD symptoms related to school bullying have rarely been investigated, and never in national samples. We used data from a national survey to investigate this among students from grades 8 and 9 (n = 963). The prevalence estimates of exposure to bullying were within the range of earlier research findings. Multinomial logistic regression showed that…

  6. SHORT COMMUNICATIONS

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The relationships between S. mansoni, hookworm and S. mansoni + hookworm with P. falciparum were investigated by fitting logistic regression model taking P. falciparum as response variable. Furthermore, co-infections analysis was investigated by fitting multinomial logistic regression model where all combination of ...

  7. Integration of Fishers' Perception on the Environment

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Keywords: Climate change, Green Economy, multinomial probit model, small- scale fisheries ... adoption of new preferences regarding environmental management and how these .... food security and poverty eradication in ... The challenges for SIDS are to integrate these ..... are thus facing unprecedented threats from.

  8. Beyond ROC Curvature: Strength Effects and Response Time Data Support Continuous-Evidence Models of Recognition Memory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dube, Chad; Starns, Jeffrey J.; Rotello, Caren M.; Ratcliff, Roger

    2012-01-01

    A classic question in the recognition memory literature is whether retrieval is best described as a continuous-evidence process consistent with signal detection theory (SDT), or a threshold process consistent with many multinomial processing tree (MPT) models. Because receiver operating characteristics (ROCs) based on confidence ratings are…

  9. An Exploration of Teacher Attrition and Mobility in High Poverty Racially Segregated Schools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Djonko-Moore, Cara M.

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine the mobility (movement to a new school) and attrition (quitting teaching) patterns of teachers in high poverty, racially segregated (HPRS) schools in the US. Using 2007-9 survey data from the National Center for Education Statistics, a multi-level multinomial logistic regression was performed to examine the…

  10. Determinants of Antenatal Care Use in Ghana

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Overbosch, G.B.; Nsowah-Nuamah, N.N.N.; van den Boom, G.J.M.; Damnyag, L.

    2004-01-01

    The paper investigates the determinants of antenatal care use in Ghana. In particular, we study how economic factors affect the demand for antenatal care and the probability that the number of visits falls below the recommended number of four. Estimation results from a nested three-level multinomial

  11. Transaction cost determinants of credit governance structures of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper explores transaction cost determinants of credit governance structures (CGS) of commercial banks in Tanzania. Descriptive statistics, linear regression model, binary and multinomial logistic regression models were employed for analysis. Findings revealed four modes of credit governance structures that are ...

  12. Saving for Success: Financial Education and Savings Goal Achievement in Individual Development Accounts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grinstead, Mary L.; Mauldin, Teresa; Sabia, Joseph J.; Koonce, Joan; Palmer, Lance

    2011-01-01

    Using microdata from the American Dream Demonstration, the current study examines factors associated with savings and savings goal achievement (indicated by a matched withdrawal) among participants of individual development account (IDA) programs. Multinomial logit results show that hours of participation in financial education programs, higher…

  13. Primary and Secondary Socialization Impacts on Support for Same-Sex Marriage After Legalization in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lubbers, M.; Jaspers, E.; Ultee, W.C.

    2009-01-01

    Two years after the legalization of same-sex marriages in the Netherlands, 65% of the Dutch population largely or completely disagrees with the statement "gay marriage should be abolished." This article shows, by way of multinomial logistic regression analysis of survey data, which socializing

  14. Primary and secondary socialization impacts on support for same-sex marriage after legalization in the Netherlands.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lubbers, M; Jaspers, E.; Ultee, W.C.

    2009-01-01

    Two years after the legalization of same-sex marriages in the Netherlands, 65% of the Dutch population largely or completely disagrees with the statement “gay marriage should be abolished.” This article shows, by way of multinomial logistic regression analysis of survey data, which socializing

  15. Ethnicity at the individual and neighborhood level as an explanation for moving out of the neighborhood

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schaake, K.; Burgers, J.; Mulder, C.H.

    2010-01-01

    We address the influence of both the ethnic composition of the neighborhood and the ethnicity of individual residents on moving out of neighborhoods in the Netherlands. Using the Housing Research Netherlands survey and multinomial logistic regression analyses of moving out versus not moving or

  16. In-season and out-of-season variation of rotavirus genotype distribution and age of infection across 12 European countries before the introduction of routine vaccination, 2007/08 to 2012/13

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hungerford, Daniel; Vivancos, Roberto; Read, Jonathan M

    2016-01-01

    distribution and age distribution of rotavirus gastroenteritis (RVGE) cases in and out of peak season in 12 countries which were yet to implement routine rotavirus vaccination. In multinomial multivariate logistic regression, adjusting for year, country and age, the odds of infection caused by genotype...

  17. Networks and Selection in International Migration to Spain

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Neubecker, Nina; Smolka, Marcel; Steinbacher, Anne

    This paper provides new evidence on migrant networks as determinants of the scale and skill structure of migration, using aggregate data from a recent migration boom to Spain. We develop a three-level nested multinomial logit migration model. Our model accommodates varying degrees of similarity...

  18. Inflation perceptions and inflation expectation in South Africa: trends ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper reports the results of a multinomial analysis of inflation perceptions and inflation expectations in South Africa. Inflation perceptions surveys among South African individuals have been undertaken since 2006. The introduction of these surveys followed on domestic inflation expectation surveys conducted in 2000, ...

  19. Emergency Department Use by Nursing Home Residents: Effect of Severity of Cognitive Impairment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephens, Caroline E.; Newcomer, Robert; Blegen, Mary; Miller, Bruce; Harrington, Charlene

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: To examine the 1-year prevalence and risk of emergency department (ED) use and ambulatory care-sensitive (ACS) ED use by nursing home (NH) residents with different levels of severity of cognitive impairment (CI). Design and Methods: We used multinomial logistic regression to estimate the effect of CI severity on the odds of any ED visit…

  20. Browse Title Index

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Items 151 - 200 of 399 ... Vol 3, No 3 (2014), Effects of Variety and Fermentation Time on the Quality of Rice Wine, Abstract PDF .... Vol 4, No 4 (2015), Factors Associated with Attitudes of Men towards Gender and Intimate Partner Violence Against Women in Eastern Ethiopia: A Multinomial Logistic Regression Analysis ...

  1. The Homogeneity of Social Selection in Accessing Higher Ranked Universities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Munk, Martin David; Baklanov, Nikita

    2018-01-01

    This paper demonstrates the persistence of social selectivity throughout the educational ladder, with evident social reproduction at the top. By jointly modelling multiple choices of high school, university, field of study, and institutional rank of university using a multinomial transition model...

  2. An Analysis of Losses to the Southern Commercial Timberland Base

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ian A. Munn; David Cleaves

    1998-01-01

    Demographic and physical factors influencing the conversion of commercial timberland iu the south to non-forestry uses between the last two Forest Inventory Analysis (FIA) surveys were investigated. GIS techniques linked Census data and FIA plot level data. Multinomial logit regression identified factors associated with losses to the timberland base. Conversion to...

  3. Heterogeneity in urban park use of aging visitors: a latent class analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kemperman, A.D.A.M.; Timmermans, H.J.P.

    2006-01-01

    This study describes and predicts urban parks use patterns for various age groups, with specific attention to the growing group of older adults. Park use intensity of various age groups is described. Subsequently, a multinomial logit model is estimated to describe urban park choice as a function of

  4. Household Income during Childhood and Young Adult Weight Status: Evidence from a Nutrition Transition Setting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmeer, Kammi K.

    2010-01-01

    This article explores whether household income at different stages of childhood is associated with weight status in early adulthood in a nutrition transition setting (a developing country with both underweight and overweight populations). I use multinomial logistic regression to analyze prospective, longitudinal data from Cebu, Philippines.…

  5. The determinants of the location of foreign direct investment in UK regions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dimitropoulou, Dimitra; McCann, Philip; Burke, Simon P.

    2013-01-01

    This article employs a database of over 2000 observations of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) projects in UK regions. We analyse this data by means of various multinomial and conditional logit models in order to identify the major determinants of the location choices of these inward investments.

  6. Evaluating the Locational Attributes of Education Management Organizations (EMOs)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gulosino, Charisse; Miron, Gary

    2017-01-01

    This study uses logistic and multinomial logistic regression models to analyze neighborhood factors affecting EMO (Education Management Organization)-operated schools' locational attributes (using census tracts) in 41 states for the 2014-2015 school year. Our research combines market-based school reform, institutional theory, and resource…

  7. Entrepreneurial engagement levels in the European Union

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    I. Grilo (Isabel); A.R. Thurik (Roy)

    2005-01-01

    textabstractA multinomial logit model and survey data from the 25 EU member states and the US are used to establish the effect of demographic and other variables on various entrepreneurial engagement levels. These engagement levels range from never thought about starting a business to thinking

  8. Optimization of biomass-producing conditions of Micrococcus sp. S ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Then these three variables were optimized by Box-behnken experimental design and response surface methodology, and a multinomial equation was constructed to describe the correlation between the biomass production and the three tested variables. By solving to this equation, the predicted maximum biomass was ...

  9. Mobility in the Urban Labor Market : A Panel Data Analysis for Mexico

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gong, X.; van Soest, A.H.O.; Villagomez, E.

    2000-01-01

    We analyze mobility in urban Mexico between three labor market states: working in the formal sector, working in the informal sector, and not working. We use a dynamic multinomial logit panel data model with random effects, explaining the labor market state of each individual during each time period.

  10. Caste, Class, and Urbanization: The Shaping of Religious Community in Contemporary India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stroope, Samuel

    2012-01-01

    Building on the implications of qualitative work from India and urbanism theories, I aim to understand whether religious bonding social capital in contemporary India increases with greater urbanization and whether such increases are moderated by caste or social class position. Results from multinomial logistic regression on 1,417 Hindu respondents…

  11. Determinants of Male Circumcision for HIV/AIDS Prevention in East ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Safe Male Circumcision (SMC) is one the effective strategies for reducing HIV transmission. The paper examines factors associated with SMC for HIV prevention, based on 4,979 males from East Central Uganda. Data were analysed using chi-squared tests and multinomial logistic regression. Older males aged 31 years ...

  12. Employees’ Preferences for more or fewer Working Hours. The Effects of Usual, Contractual and Standard Working Time, Family Phase and Household Characteristics, and Job Satisfaction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tijdens, K.

    2002-01-01

    This study seeks explanations for working time preferences, using cross-sectional multinomial logits for the 2001/2002 Wage Indicator dataset (N=21,727). As expected, the preferences are predominately influenced by working hours’ characteristics, showing that employees with long hours prefer to work

  13. Impact of Perceived Risk and Friend Influence on Alcohol and Marijuana Use among Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merianos, Ashley L.; Rosen, Brittany L.; Montgomery, LaTrice; Barry, Adam E.; Smith, Matthew Lee

    2017-01-01

    We performed a secondary analysis of Adolescent Health Risk Behavior Survey data (N=937), examining associations between lifetime alcohol and marijuana use with intrapersonal (i.e., risk perceptions) and interpersonal (e.g., peer approval and behavior) factors. Multinomial and binary logistic regression analyses contend students reporting lifetime…

  14. The Association between Electronic Bullying and School Absenteeism among High School Students in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grinshteyn, Erin; Yang, Y. T.

    2017-01-01

    Background: We examined the relationship between exposure to electronic bullying and absenteeism as a result of being afraid. Methods: This multivariate, multinomial regression analysis of the 2013 Youth Risk Behavior Survey data assessed the association between experiencing electronic bullying in the past year and how often students were absent…

  15. Social determinants of alcohol use among drivers in Calabar | Bello ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A semistructured questionnaire, which included the World Health Organization Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test, was administered at interview. Binary and multinomial logistic regression analyses were used to identify social determinants of any and hazardous alcohol use. Results: Determinants of any alcohol use ...

  16. Modelování vybraných ukazatelů o finanční situaci domácností v České republice

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Řezanková, Hana

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 21, č. 3 (2013), s. 32-50 ISSN 0572-3043 R&D Projects: GA ČR GAP202/10/0262 Keywords : Czech households * financial indicator * household classification * classification tree * binary logistic regression * multinomial logistic regression * F-measure Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research

  17. Inequalities involving the generating function for the number of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Fibonacci numbers can be expressed in terms of multinomial coefficients as sums over integer partitions into odd parts. We use this fact to introduce a family of double inequalities involving the generating function for the number of partitions into odd parts and the generating function for the number of odd divisors. Keywords: ...

  18. Users evaluation of transport mode characteristics with special attention to public transport

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Waerden, van der P.J.H.J.; Borgers, A.W.J.; Timmermans, H.J.P.; Berenos, M.

    2007-01-01

    The paper focuses on the influence of public transport use on the evaluation of transport mode characteristics. Based on stated choice data, several multinomial logit models that include parameters representing differences between users and non-users of public transport are estimated. The estimation

  19. Choice experiments versus revealed choice models : a before-after study of consumer spatial shopping behavior

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Timmermans, H.J.P.; Borgers, A.W.J.; Waerden, van der P.J.H.J.

    1992-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to compare a set of multinomial logit models derived from revealed choice data and a decompositional choice model derived from experimental data in terms of predictive success in the context of consumer spatial shopping behavior. Data on consumer shopping choice

  20. Predicting College Success: Achievement, Demographic, and Psychosocial Predictors of First-Semester College Grade Point Average

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saltonstall, Margot

    2013-01-01

    This study seeks to advance and expand research on college student success. Using multinomial logistic regression analysis, the study investigates the contribution of psychosocial variables above and beyond traditional achievement and demographic measures to predicting first-semester college grade point average (GPA). It also investigates if…

  1. Systems with selective overflow and change of bandwidth

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Iversen, Villy Bæk

    2012-01-01

    on the overflow group, we show by balance equations that the number of calls of each service will be Multinomial distributed with probabilities proportional with the arrival rates. Using a recent result of Newcomer & al, we then find moments (done up to fourth order) of individual overflow streams or any...

  2. Effect of dietary fatty acid intake on prospective weight change in the Heidelberg cohort of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nimptsch, Katharina; Berg-Beckhoff, Gabi; Linseisen, Jakob

    2010-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the association between fatty acid (alpha-linolenic acid (ALA), EPA, DHA, palmitic, stearic, oleic, linoleic and arachidonic acids) intake and prospective weight change in the Heidelberg cohort of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition. DESIGN....... RESULTS: Stearic acid intake was linearly associated with weight gain (P acid intake, significantly so in women. In multinomial models, women in the highest tertile of ALA and stearic acid intake showed increased OR (95 % CI......) and categorised into four groups (weight loss, or =2.5 to or =7.5%/5 years). Energy-adjusted dietary fatty acid intake data were estimated from the FFQ completed at baseline. Multivariate linear regression models as well as multinomial logistic regression analyses (carbohydrate replacement models) were conducted...

  3. Study of Machine-Learning Classifier and Feature Set Selection for Intent Classification of Korean Tweets about Food Safety

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yeom, Ha-Neul

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, several studies have proposed making use of the Twitter micro-blogging service to track various trends in online media and discussion. In this study, we specifically examine the use of Twitter to track discussions of food safety in the Korean language. Given the irregularity of keyword use in most tweets, we focus on optimistic machine-learning and feature set selection to classify collected tweets. We build the classifier model using Naive Bayes & Naive Bayes Multinomial, Support Vector Machine, and Decision Tree Algorithms, all of which show good performance. To select an optimum feature set, we construct a basic feature set as a standard for performance comparison, so that further test feature sets can be evaluated. Experiments show that precision and F-measure performance are best when using a Naive Bayes Multinomial classifier model with a test feature set defined by extracting Substantive, Predicate, Modifier, and Interjection parts of speech.

  4. Energy consumption and economic growth—New evidence from meta analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Ping-Yu; Chen, Sheng-Tung; Chen, Chi-Chung

    2012-01-01

    The causal relationships between energy consumption and economic growth have given rise to much discussion but remain controversial. Alternative data sets based on different time spans, countries, energy policies and econometric approaches result in diverse outcomes. A meta analysis using a multinomial logit model with 174 samples governing the relationships between GDP and energy consumption is applied here to investigate the major factors that affect these controversial outcomes. The empirical results have demonstrated how the time spans, subject selections including GDP and energy consumption, econometric models, and tools for greenhouse gases emission reduction characteristics significantly affect these controversial outcomes. - Highlights: ► The controversial casual relationships between energy consumption and GDP are investigated. ► A meta analysis using a multinomial logit model is adopted. ► 74 studies governing the relationships between GDP and energy consumption was collected. ► The empirical results show how the probability of major factors affects such relationships.

  5. Clarification of the use of chi-square and likelihood functions in fits to histograms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baker, S.; Cousins, R.D.

    1984-01-01

    We consider the problem of fitting curves to histograms in which the data obey multinomial or Poisson statistics. Techniques commonly used by physicists are examined in light of standard results found in the statistics literature. We review the relationship between multinomial and Poisson distributions, and clarify a sufficient condition for equality of the area under the fitted curve and the number of events on the histogram. Following the statisticians, we use the likelihood ratio test to construct a general Z 2 statistic, Zsub(lambda) 2 , which yields parameter and error estimates identical to those of the method of maximum likelihood. The Zsub(lambda) 2 statistic is further useful for testing goodness-of-fit since the value of its minimum asymptotically obeys a classical chi-square distribution. One should be aware, however, of the potential for statistical bias, especially when the number of events is small. (orig.)

  6. Disentangling stereotype activation and stereotype application in the stereotype misperception task.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krieglmeyer, Regina; Sherman, Jeffrey W

    2012-08-01

    When forming impressions about other people, stereotypes about the individual's social group often influence the resulting impression. At least 2 distinguishable processes underlie stereotypic impression formation: stereotype activation and stereotype application. Most previous research has used implicit measures to assess stereotype activation and explicit measures to assess stereotype application, which has several disadvantages. The authors propose a measure of stereotypic impression formation, the stereotype misperception task (SMT), together with a multinomial model that quantitatively disentangles the contributions of stereotype activation and application to responses in the SMT. The validity of the SMT and of the multinomial model was confirmed in 5 studies. The authors hope to advance research on stereotyping by providing a measurement tool that separates multiple processes underlying impression formation.

  7. A novel statistical method for classifying habitat generalists and specialists

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chazdon, Robin L; Chao, Anne; Colwell, Robert K

    2011-01-01

    in second-growth (SG) and old-growth (OG) rain forests in the Caribbean lowlands of northeastern Costa Rica. We evaluate the multinomial model in detail for the tree data set. Our results for birds were highly concordant with a previous nonstatistical classification, but our method classified a higher......: (1) generalist; (2) habitat A specialist; (3) habitat B specialist; and (4) too rare to classify with confidence. We illustrate our multinomial classification method using two contrasting data sets: (1) bird abundance in woodland and heath habitats in southeastern Australia and (2) tree abundance...... fraction (57.7%) of bird species with statistical confidence. Based on a conservative specialization threshold and adjustment for multiple comparisons, 64.4% of tree species in the full sample were too rare to classify with confidence. Among the species classified, OG specialists constituted the largest...

  8. Predicting The Type Of Pregnancy Using Flexible Discriminate Analysis And Artificial Neural Networks: A Comparison Study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hooman, A.; Mohammadzadeh, M.

    2008-01-01

    Some medical and epidemiological surveys have been designed to predict a nominal response variable with several levels. With regard to the type of pregnancy there are four possible states: wanted, unwanted by wife, unwanted by husband and unwanted by couple. In this paper, we have predicted the type of pregnancy, as well as the factors influencing it using three different models and comparing them. Regarding the type of pregnancy with several levels, we developed a multinomial logistic regression, a neural network and a flexible discrimination based on the data and compared their results using tow statistical indices: Surface under curve (ROC) and kappa coefficient. Based on these tow indices, flexible discrimination proved to be a better fit for prediction on data in comparison to other methods. When the relations among variables are complex, one can use flexible discrimination instead of multinomial logistic regression and neural network to predict the nominal response variables with several levels in order to gain more accurate predictions

  9. Regression Models For Multivariate Count Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yiwen; Zhou, Hua; Zhou, Jin; Sun, Wei

    2017-01-01

    Data with multivariate count responses frequently occur in modern applications. The commonly used multinomial-logit model is limiting due to its restrictive mean-variance structure. For instance, analyzing count data from the recent RNA-seq technology by the multinomial-logit model leads to serious errors in hypothesis testing. The ubiquity of over-dispersion and complicated correlation structures among multivariate counts calls for more flexible regression models. In this article, we study some generalized linear models that incorporate various correlation structures among the counts. Current literature lacks a treatment of these models, partly due to the fact that they do not belong to the natural exponential family. We study the estimation, testing, and variable selection for these models in a unifying framework. The regression models are compared on both synthetic and real RNA-seq data.

  10. Emotionally enhanced memory for negatively arousing words: storage or retrieval advantage?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nadarevic, Lena

    2017-12-01

    People typically remember emotionally negative words better than neutral words. Two experiments are reported that investigate whether emotionally enhanced memory (EEM) for negatively arousing words is based on a storage or retrieval advantage. Participants studied non-word-word pairs that either involved negatively arousing or neutral target words. Memory for these target words was tested by means of a recognition test and a cued-recall test. Data were analysed with a multinomial model that allows the disentanglement of storage and retrieval processes in the present recognition-then-cued-recall paradigm. In both experiments the multinomial analyses revealed no storage differences between negatively arousing and neutral words but a clear retrieval advantage for negatively arousing words in the cued-recall test. These findings suggest that EEM for negatively arousing words is driven by associative processes.

  11. A measurement theory of illusory conjunctions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prinzmetal, William; Ivry, Richard B; Beck, Diane; Shimizu, Naomi

    2002-04-01

    Illusory conjunctions refer to the incorrect perceptual combination of correctly perceived features, such as color and shape. Research on the phenomenon has been hampered by the lack of a measurement theory that accounts for guessing features, as well as the incorrect combination of correctly perceived features. Recently, several investigators have suggested using multinomial models as a tool for measuring feature integration. The authors examined the adequacy of these models in 2 experiments by testing whether model parameters reflect changes in stimulus factors. In a third experiment, confidence ratings were used as a tool for testing the model. Multinomial models accurately reflected both variations in stimulus factors and observers' trial-by-trial confidence ratings.

  12. TAFV Alternative Fuels and Vehicles Choice Model Documentation; TOPICAL

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Greene, D.L.

    2001-01-01

    A model for predicting choice of alternative fuel and among alternative vehicle technologies for light-duty motor vehicles is derived. The nested multinomial logit (NML) mathematical framework is used. Calibration of the model is based on information in the existing literature and deduction based on assuming a small number of key parameters, such as the value of time and discount rates. A spreadsheet model has been developed for calibration and preliminary testing of the model

  13. Job Motivation and Self-Confidence for Learning and Development as Predictors of Support for Change

    OpenAIRE

    Vithessonthi, Chaiporn; Schwaninger, Markus

    2008-01-01

    For the most part, studies on change management have attempted to determine the factors that influence employee resistance to change. The focus of the present study is to test whether job motivation and self-confidence for learning and development influence employee support for downsizing. Data were gathered from a sample of 86 teachers at one private school in Bangkok, Thailand. The analysis was carried out using multinomial ordered probit regression. The results suggest that the level of jo...

  14. Effect of Advertising on the Brand Loyalty of Cosmetic Products among College Students

    OpenAIRE

    Ababio, Abraham Gyamfi; Yamoah, Emmanuel Erastus

    2016-01-01

    This study explored the relationship between advertising and brand loyalty of cosmetic products. The multinomial logit model was used to ascertain the effect of advertising on different loyalty profiles for cosmetic products among college students. Based on a survey of 200 Ghanaian students drawn randomly, findings indicated that advertising plays no significant role on college students’ loyalty for cosmetic products. It can be argued, however, that the most promiscuous buyer is more amenable...

  15. The Cognitive Processes Underlying Event-Based Prospective Memory In School Age Children and Young Adults: A Formal Model-Based Study

    OpenAIRE

    Smith, Rebekah E.; Bayen, Ute Johanna; Martin, Claudia

    2010-01-01

    Fifty 7-year-olds (29 female), 53 10-year-olds (29 female), and 36 young adults (19 female), performed a computerized event-based prospective memory task. All three groups differed significantly in prospective memory performance with adults showing the best performance and 7-year-olds the poorest performance. We used a formal multinomial process tree model of event-based prospective memory to decompose age differences in cognitive processes that jointly contribute to prospective memory perfor...

  16. Livelihood strategies, environmental dependency and rural poverty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Walelign, Solomon Zena

    2016-01-01

    This article attempts to explore the nexus between rural households’ environmental dependency, poverty and livelihood strategies. Households’ income from each livelihood activities formed the basis for categorizing households according to livelihood strategies. The principal component analysis...... of livelihood choice were analyzed using multinomial logit model. The results indicate the existence of marked differences in environmental dependency, rural poverty and asset endowments across the livelihood groups. Household’s total saving, access to credit, production implements, business cost, exposure...

  17. A hipótese de Cressey (1953) e a investigação da ocorrência de fraudes corporativas: uma análise empírica em instituições bancárias brasileiras

    OpenAIRE

    Machado, Michele Rílany Rodrigues; Gartner, Ivan Ricardo

    2017-01-01

    ABSTRACT This article fills a technical-scientific gap that currently exists in the Brazilian literature on corporative fraud, by combining the theoretical framework of agency theory, of criminology, and of the economics of crime. In addition, it focuses on a sector that is usually excluded from analyses due to its specific characteristics and shows the application of multinomial logit panel data regression with random effects, which is rarely used in studies in the area of accounting. The ai...

  18. The Cressey hypothesis (1953) and an investigation into the occurrence of corporate fraud: an empirical analysis conducted in Brazilian banking institutions

    OpenAIRE

    Michele Rílany Rodrigues Machado; Ivan Ricardo Gartner

    2017-01-01

    ABSTRACT This article fills a technical-scientific gap that currently exists in the Brazilian literature on corporative fraud, by combining the theoretical framework of agency theory, of criminology, and of the economics of crime. In addition, it focuses on a sector that is usually excluded from analyses due to its specific characteristics and shows the application of multinomial logit panel data regression with random effects, which is rarely used in studies in the area of accounting. The ai...

  19. Characteristics of Sexually Active Teenage Girls Who Would Be Pleased with Becoming Pregnant

    OpenAIRE

    Cavazos-Rehg, Patricia A.; Krauss, Melissa J.; Spitznagel, Edward L.; Schootman, Mario; Cottler, Linda B.; Bierut, Laura Jean

    2013-01-01

    To investigate factors associated with favorable pregnancy attitudes among teenage girls. Participants were sexually active teenage girls aged 15–18 years old (n = 965) who took part in the 2002 or 2006–2010 National Survey of Family Growth (NSFG). Multinomial multivariable logistic regression was used to assess the likelihood of being pleased with a teenage pregnancy. Sixteen percent of sexually active teenage girls (n = 164) would be pleased (11 % a little pleased, 5 % very pleased) if they...

  20. Isolated and Skeptical: Social Engagement and Trust in Information Sources Among Smokers

    OpenAIRE

    Finney Rutten, Lila J.; Blake, Kelly; Hesse, Bradford W.; Ackerson, Leland K.

    2011-01-01

    Our study compared indicators of social engagement and trust among current, former, and never smokers. Multinomial regression analyses of data from the 2005 U.S. Health Information National Trends Survey (n=5586) were conducted to identify independent associations between social engagement, trust in health information sources, and smoking status. Never smokers (odds ratio (OR)=2.08) and former smokers (OR=2.48) were significantly more likely to belong to community organizations than current s...

  1. A generalization of the q-Saalschutz sum and the Burge transform

    OpenAIRE

    Schilling, A.; Warnaar, S. O.

    1999-01-01

    A generalization of the q-(Pfaff)-Saalschutz summation formula is proved. This implies a generalization of the Burge transform, resulting in an additional dimension of the ``Burge tree''. Limiting cases of our summation formula imply the (higher-level) Bailey lemma, provide a new decomposition of the q-multinomial coefficients, and can be used to prove the Lepowsky and Primc formula for the A_1^{(1)} string functions.

  2. Work-Family Conflict and Retirement Preferences

    OpenAIRE

    Raymo, James M.; Sweeney, Megan M

    2005-01-01

    Objectives: This study investigates relationships between perceived levels of work-family conflict and retirement preferences. Methods: Using the large sample of 52-54 year-old respondents to the 1992 Wisconsin Longitudinal Study, we estimate multinomial logistic regression models of preferences for partial and full retirement within the next ten years. We examine the association between preferences for retirement and perceived work-family conflict...

  3. The impact of the residential built environment on work at home adoption frequency: An example from Northern California

    OpenAIRE

    Tang, Wei (Laura); Mokhtarian, Patricia L.; Handy, Susan L.

    2011-01-01

    Working at home is widely viewed as a useful travel-reduction strategy, and it is partly for that reason that considerable research related to telecommuting and home-based work has been conducted in the last two decades. This study examines the effect of residential neighborhood built environment (BE) factors on working at home. After systematically presenting and categorizing various relevant elements of the BE and reviewing related studies, we develop a multinomial logit (MNL) model of work...

  4. The Role of Neighborhood Characteristics in the Adoption and Frequency of Working at Home: Empirical Evidence from Northern California

    OpenAIRE

    Tang, Wei; Mokhtarian, Patricia; Handy, Susan

    2008-01-01

    Working at home is widely viewed as a useful travel-reduction strategy, and partly for that reason, considerable research related to telecommuting and home-based work has been conducted in the last two decades. The contribution of this study is to examine the effect of residential neighborhood built environment (BE) factors on working at home. Using data from a survey of eight neighborhoods in Northern California, we develop a multinomial logit (MNL) model of work-at-home (WAH) frequency. Pot...

  5. Generalizing the Iterative Proportional Fitting Procedure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1980-04-01

    Csiszar gives conditions under which P (R) exists (it is always unique) and develops a geometry of I-divergence by using an analogue of Pythagoras ...8217 Theorem . As our goal is to study maximum likelihood estimation in contingency tables, we turn briefly to the problem of estimating a multinomial...envoke a result of Csiszir (due originally to Kullback (1959)), giving the form of the density of the I-projection. Csiszar’s Theorem 3.1, which we

  6. Conceptual and perceptual factors in the picture superiority effect

    OpenAIRE

    Stenberg, Georg

    2006-01-01

    The picture superiority effect, i.e. better memory for pictures than for corresponding words, has been variously ascribed to a conceptual or a perceptual processing advantage. The present study aimed to disentangle perceptual and conceptual contributions. Pictures and words were tested for recognition in both their original formats and translated into participants´ second language. Multinomial Processing Tree (Batchelder & Riefer, 1999) and MINERVA (Hintzman, 1984) models were fitted to t...

  7. Climate Change Adaptation via U.S. Land Use Transitions: A Spatial Econometric Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Cho, Sung Ju; McCarl, Bruce A.; Wu, Ximing

    2015-01-01

    Climate change, coupled with biofuels development and other factors may well be changing US land usage patterns. We use a spatial econometric approach to estimate the drivers of US land use transitions in recent years. We consider transitions between six major land uses: agricultural land, forest, grassland, water, urban, and other uses. To examine drivers, we use a two-step linearized, spatial, multinomial logit model and estimate land use transition probabilities. Our results indicate that ...

  8. Linking apple farmers to markets: Determinants and impacts of marketing contracts in China

    OpenAIRE

    Ma, Wanglin; Abdulai, Awudu

    2015-01-01

    This study investigates the determinants of marketing contract choices and the related impact on farm net returns of apple farmers in China. We employ a two-stage selection correction approach (BFG) for the multinomial logit model. On the basis of the BFG estimation, we also use an endogenous switching regression model and a propensity score matching technique to estimate the causal effects of marketing contract choices on net returns. The empirical results reveal that written contracts incre...

  9. Authorship attribution and author profiling of Lithuanian literary texts

    OpenAIRE

    Kapočiūtė-Dzikienė, Jurgita; Utka, Andrius; Šarkutė, Ligita

    2015-01-01

    In this work we are solving authorship attribution and author profiling tasks (by focusing on the age and gender dimensions) for the Lithuanian language. This paper reports the first results on literary texts, which we compared to the results, previously obtained with different functional styles and language types (i.e., parliamentary transcripts and forum posts). Using the Naïve Bayes Multinomial and Support Vector Machine methods we investigated an impact of...

  10. Ordering the Preference Hierarchies for Internal Finance, Bank Loans, Bond and Share Issues

    OpenAIRE

    Leo de Haan; Jeroen Hinloopen

    2002-01-01

    We estimate the incremental financing decision for a sample of some 150Dutch companies for the years 1984 through 1997, thereby distinguishinginternal finance and three types of external finance: bank borrowing, bondissues and share issues. First, we estimate a multinomial logit model whichconfirms several predictions of both the static trade-off theory and thepecking-order theory as to the determinants of financing choices. Next, weuse ordered probit models to determine which financing hiera...

  11. Benefits of improved water quality: a discrete choice analysis of freshwater recreational demands

    OpenAIRE

    R S Tay; P S McCarthy

    1994-01-01

    Discrete choice methodologies are increasingly being used to estimate multiple-sites recreational demands and evaluate the welfare effects of alternative environmental policies aimed at water quality improvements. In this study the authors use 1985 data on Indiana anglers to estimate a multinomial logit model of destination choice and compute the benefits of alternative water quality improvements. In general, the results indicate that anglers are reasonably sensitive to changes in water quali...

  12. Direct Marketing Promotion and Electronic Cigarette Use Among US Adults, National Adult Tobacco Survey, 2013–2014

    OpenAIRE

    Dai, Hongying; Hao, Jianqiang

    2017-01-01

    Introduction The use of electronic cigarettes (e-cigarettes) among US adults has increased since 2007. The objective of this study was to investigate the prevalence of direct marketing promotion of e-cigarettes and its association with e-cigarette use among US adults. Methods We used using data from the 2013–2014 National Adult Tobacco Survey (NATS) to estimate prevalence of e-cigarette promotions received by mail or email. Multinomial logistic regression was used to examine the associations ...

  13. The Pattern of Fatty Acids Displaced by EPA and DHA Following 12 Months Supplementation Varies between Blood Cell and Plasma Fractions

    OpenAIRE

    Walker, Celia G.; West, Annette L.; Browning, Lucy M.; Madden, Jackie; Gambell, Joanna M.; Jebb, Susan A.; Calder, Philip C.

    2015-01-01

    Eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA) and docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) are increased in plasma lipids and blood cell membranes in response to supplementation. Whilst arachidonic acid (AA) is correspondingly decreased, the effect on other fatty acids (FA) is less well described and there may be site-specific differences. In response to 12 months EPA + DHA supplementation in doses equivalent to 0–4 portions of oily fish/week (1 portion: 3.27 g EPA+DHA) multinomial regression analysis was used to identify...

  14. Bodies in Contempt: A Mixed Methods Study of Federal ADA Employment Cases

    OpenAIRE

    Dick-Mosher, Jennifer

    2013-01-01

    This paper draws on theories of gendered organizations to examine discrimination against people with disabilities in the workplace. A sample of 200 cases which document disability discrimination lawsuits was drawn from the Westlaw legal database. Each case was coded for gender, job, disability and discrimination type and analyzed using multinomial logistic models. Of those 200 cases, 34 were selected for in depth qualitative analysis. This study finds that disability type and gender do have a...

  15. "Choice of Air Cargo Transshipment Airport: An Application to Air Cargo Traffic to/from Northeast Asia"

    OpenAIRE

    Hiroshi Ohashi; Tae-Seung Kim; Tae Hoon Oum; Chunyan Yu

    2004-01-01

    Based on a unique data set of 760 air cargo transshipment routings to/from the Northeast Asian region in 2000, this paper applies an aggregate form of multinomial logit model to identify the critical factors influencing air cargo transshipment route choice decisions. The analysis focuses on the trade-off between monetary cost and time cost while considering other variables relevant for choice of transshipment airport. The estimation method considers the presence of unobserved attributes, and ...

  16. The Influence of Higher Moments of Earnings Distributions on Career Decisions.

    OpenAIRE

    Flyer, Fredrick A

    1997-01-01

    A model where choice of occupation is sequential is applied to college graduates from the National Longitudinal Study of High School Class of 1972 to investigate how higher moments of occupational earnings distributions influence initial field of work. Individual specific life-cycle earnings projections that incorporate option values of occupational mobility are generated, and the relationship between these pay measures and choice of initial occupation is explored within a multinomial logit f...

  17. —: A Multicategory Brand Equity Model and Its Application at Allstate

    OpenAIRE

    Venkatesh Shankar; Pablo Azar; Matthew Fuller

    2008-01-01

    We develop a robust model for estimating, tracking, and managing brand equity for multicategory brands based on customer survey and financial measures. This model has two components: (1) offering value (computed from discounted cash flow analysis) and (2) relative brand importance (computed from brand choice models such as multinomial logit, heteroscedastic extreme value, and mixed logit). We apply this model to estimate the brand equity of Allstate—a leading insurance company—and its leading...

  18. The Development of Dynamic Brand Equity Chase Model and Its Application to Digital Industry Based on Scanner Data

    OpenAIRE

    Nam Yongsik; Kwak Youngsik

    2009-01-01

    The purpose of this research is to develop a comprehensive modeling for measuring dynamics of brand power. We define brand power as brand specific coefficients to yield the sales volume for each period. The modeling consists of multinomial log it model for eachproduct category, the brand-specific coefficients, mixture modeling and fuzzy clustering algorithm. We apply our modeling to TV scanner data in Tianjin China. The results show 5 brands have 12 to 23 times change on their brand power in ...

  19. Should we pay, and to whom, for biodiversity enhancement in private forests? An empirical study of attitudes towards payments for forest ecosystem services in Poland

    OpenAIRE

    Anna Bartczak; Katarzyna Metelska-Szaniawska

    2015-01-01

    This paper investigates the possibility of forest policy changes in Poland. The main objective is to investigate whether, and to whom, the society would be willing to pay for providing biodiversity enhancement in private forests. The empirical evidence is derived from a stated preference survey conducted on the national level and analyzed using a multinomial logit model (MNL). Our findings show a rather strong potential for the implementation of payments for ecosystem services (PES) in privat...

  20. Working Paper 175 - Youth Employment in Africa: New Evidence and Policies from Swaziland

    OpenAIRE

    Zuzana Brixiova; Thierry Kangoye

    2013-01-01

    Drawing on the 2007 and 2010 Swaziland Labor Force Surveys, this paper provides first systematic evidence on recent youth employment challenges in Swaziland, a small, land-locked, middle-income country with one of the highest youth unemployment rates in Africa. The paper first documents the various labor market disadvantages faced by the Swazi youth, such as high unemployment and discouragement, and how they changed from 2007 to 2010. A multinomial logit regression analysis is carried out to ...

  1. Youth Employment in Africa: New Evidence and Policies from Swaziland

    OpenAIRE

    Brixiova, Zuzana; Kangoye, Thierry

    2013-01-01

    Drawing on the 2007 and 2010 Swaziland Labor Force Surveys, this paper provides first systematic evidence on recent youth employment challenges in Swaziland, a small, land-locked, middle-income country with one of the highest youth unemployment rates in Africa. The paper first documents the various labor market disadvantages faced by the Swazi youth, such as high unemployment and discouragement, and how they changed from 2007 to 2010. A multinomial logit regression analysis is then carried ou...

  2. Body size dissatisfaction among young adults from the 1982 Pelotas birth cohort

    OpenAIRE

    Mintem, G C; Horta, B L; Domingues, M R; Gigante, D P

    2014-01-01

    Background/Objectives: To identify the prevalence and factors associated with body dissatisfaction. Subjects/Methods: Birth cohort study investigating 4100 subjects (2187 men and 1913 women) aged between 22 and 23 years who answered questionnaires, including the body satisfaction Stunkard Scale were included in the study; they were weighed and measured. Multinomial logistic regression was used in the crude and adjusted analyses. Results: The prevalence of body dissatisfaction was 64% (95% CI,...

  3. PURCHASING BEHAVIOUR RELATED TO HEATING SYSTEMS IN GERMANY WITH SPECIAL CONSIDERATION OF CONSUMERS' ECOLOGICAL ATTITUDES

    OpenAIRE

    Decker, Thomas; Zapilko, Marina; Menrad, Klaus

    2010-01-01

    The decision for buying a heating system is a long-term one, as many different aspects have an influence on this choice which were analyzed in a Germany-wide, written survey. The respondents (only owners of a private house) had to answer questions about their attitude towards e.g. economic, convenience or ecological aspects related to heating systems and the respective combustibles. Using a multinomial logistic regression model the choice of the heating system is mainly explained by ecologica...

  4. BUYING BEHAVIOUR RELATED TO HEATING SYSTEMS IN GERMANY

    OpenAIRE

    Decker, Thomas; Zapilko, Marina; Menrad, Klaus

    2010-01-01

    The decision for buying a heating system is a long-term one, as many different aspects have an influence on this choice which were analysed in a Germany-wide, written survey. The respondents (only owners of a private house) had to answer questions about their attitude towards e.g. economics, convenience or ecological aspects related to heating systems and the respective combustibles. Using a multinomial logistic regression model the choice of the heating system is mainly explained by ecologic...

  5. How do we value our income from which we save?

    OpenAIRE

    Barbara Liberda; Marek Pęczkowski; Ewa Gucwa-Leśny

    2011-01-01

    In this paper we analyze the relationship between the perception of income as satisfying household needs and saving rate of this household. Using the multinomial logit regression function we measure the probability of a household to fall into one of the groups categorized by the subjective perception of income in relation to the current household disposable income. The variable specified for the valuation of income is income perception, defined as a class of observed disposable income located...

  6. When is Information Sufficient for Action Search with Unreliable Yet Informative Intelligence

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-03-30

    specificity. Math . Methods Oper. Res. 68(3): 539–549. Lange R-J (2012) Brownian motion and multidimensional decision making. Unpublished doctoral...intelligence assets, political ramifications, etc. We describe the problem in §2 and formulate the mathe - matical model in §3. The cases of n= 2 and n...boundary problem in n dimensions. When n> 2 cells, our problem relates to the family of multinomial selection problems (Kim and Nelson 2006) in which an

  7. The differentiated impacts of organizational innovation practices on technological innovation persistence

    OpenAIRE

    Le Bas , Christian; Mothe , Caroline; Nguyen-Thi , Thuc Uyen

    2015-01-01

    International audience; Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to test the major determinants of technological (product and process) innovation persistence and provides evidence of the significant role of organizational innovation. Design/methodology/approach – Data came from two waves of the Luxembourg Community Innovation Survey (CIS): CIS2006 for 2004-2006 and CIS2008 for 2006-2008. The longitudinal data set resulted in a final sample of 287 firms. A multinomial probit model estimates the ...

  8. Text document classification based on mixture models

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Novovičová, Jana; Malík, Antonín

    2004-01-01

    Roč. 40, č. 3 (2004), s. 293-304 ISSN 0023-5954 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR IAA2075302; GA ČR GA102/03/0049; GA AV ČR KSK1019101 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z1075907 Keywords : text classification * text categorization * multinomial mixture model Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 0.224, year: 2004

  9. Intrahousehold Health Care Financing Strategy and the Gender Gap: Empirical Evidence from India

    OpenAIRE

    Abay Asfaw; Stephan Klasen; Francesca Lamanna

    2008-01-01

    The 'missing women' dilemma in India has sparked interest in investigating gender discrimination in the provision of health care in the country. No studies, however, have directly examined this discrimination in relation to household behavior in health care financing. We hypothesize that households who face tight budget constraints are more likely to spend their meager resources on hospitalization of boys rather than girls. We use the 60th Indian National Sample Survey and a multinomial logit...

  10. The matrix Euler-Fermat theorem

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arnol'd, Vladimir I

    2004-01-01

    We prove many congruences for binomial and multinomial coefficients as well as for the coefficients of the Girard-Newton formula in the theory of symmetric functions. These congruences also imply congruences (modulo powers of primes) for the traces of various powers of matrices with integer elements. We thus have an extension of the matrix Fermat theorem similar to Euler's extension of the numerical little Fermat theorem

  11. A metric for cross-sample comparisons using logit and probit

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karlson, Kristian Bernt

    relative to an arbitrary scale, which makes the coefficients difficult both to interpret and to compare across groups or samples. Do differences in coefficients reflect true differences or differences in scales? This cross-sample comparison problem raises concerns for comparative research. However, we......* across groups or samples, making it suitable for situations met in real applications in comparative research. Our derivations also extend to the probit and to ordered and multinomial models. The new metric is implemented in the Stata command nlcorr....

  12. Estimating the Open Market Desk's Daily Reaction Function.

    OpenAIRE

    Feinman, Joshua N

    1993-01-01

    This paper presents the results of an empirical investigation into the proximate determinants of the Federal Reserve's daily open market operations. Using information available each morning at the Fed conference call, the author models the Open Market Desk's choice of both the quantity and the type of operation, using a friction model for the former and a multinomial logit framework for the latter. Different types of operations are shown to send different signals to the market about the under...

  13. Disability and multi-state labour force choices with state dependence

    OpenAIRE

    Oguzoglu, Umut

    2010-01-01

    I use a dynamic mixed multinomial logit model with unobserved heterogeneity to study the impact of work limiting disabilities on disaggregated labour choices. The first seven waves of the Household Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia survey are used to investigate this relationship. Findings point out to strong state dependence in employment choices. Further, the impact of disability on employment outcomes is highly significant. Model simulations suggest that high cross and own state depe...

  14. Local and/or organic: A study on consumer preferences for organic food and food from different origins

    OpenAIRE

    Feldmann , Corinna; Hamm, Ulrich

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to get a deeper insight into consumer preferences for different food products varying in their places of origin (i.e. local, Germany, neighbouring country, non-EU country) and production practices (i.e. organic vs. non-organic). Therefore, consumer surveys combined with choice experiments were conducted with 641 consumers in eight supermarkets in different parts of Germany. Multinomial and mixed logit models were estimated to draw conclusions on the preference str...

  15. Exact Tests for Two-Way Contingency Tables with Structural Zeros

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luke J. West

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available Fisher's exact test, named for Sir Ronald Aylmer Fisher, tests contingency tables for homogeneity of proportion. This paper discusses a generalization of Fisher's exact test for the case where some of the table entries are constrained to be zero. The resulting test is useful for assessing cases where the null hypothesis of conditional multinomial distribution is suspected to be false. The test is implemented in the form of a new R package, aylmer.

  16. Employees’ Preferences for more or fewer Working Hours. The Effects of Usual, Contractual and Standard Working Time, Family Phase and Household Characteristics, and Job Satisfaction

    OpenAIRE

    Tijdens, K.

    2002-01-01

    This study seeks explanations for working time preferences, using cross-sectional multinomial logits for the 2001/2002 Wage Indicator dataset (N=21,727). As expected, the preferences are predominately influenced by working hours’ characteristics, showing that employees with long hours prefer to work shorter hours and that short-hours workers prefer longer hours. New is the finding that salaried employees indeed want to reduce hours whereas hourly paid employees prefer to work longer hours. In...

  17. WP RR 15 - Employees' preferences for more or fewer working hours: The effects of usual, contractual and standard working time, family phase and household characteristics and job satisfaction

    OpenAIRE

    Kea Tijdens

    2002-01-01

    This study seeks explanations for working time preferences, using cross-sectional multinomial logits for the 2001/2002 Wage Indicator dataset (N=21,727). As expected, the preferences are predominately influenced by working hours’ characteristics, showing that employees with long hours prefer to work shorter hours and that short-hours workers prefer longer hours. New is the finding that salaried employees indeed want to reduce hours whereas hourly paid employees prefer to work longer hours. In...

  18. Long Work Hours: Volunteers and Conscripts

    OpenAIRE

    Robert Drago; Mark Wooden; David Black

    2006-01-01

    Panel data from Australia are used to study the prevalence of work hours mismatch among long hours workers and, more importantly, how that mismatch persists and changes over time, and what factors are associated with these changes. Particular attention is paid to the roles played by household debt, ideal worker characteristics and gender. Both static and dynamic multinomial logit models are estimated, with the dependent variable distinguishing long hours workers from other workers, and within...

  19. How to count an introduction to combinatorics

    CERN Document Server

    Allenby, RBJT

    2010-01-01

    What's It All About? What Is Combinatorics? Classic Problems What You Need to Know Are You Sitting Comfortably? Permutations and Combinations The Combinatorial Approach Permutations CombinationsApplications to Probability Problems The Multinomial Theorem Permutations and Cycles Occupancy Problems Counting the Solutions of Equations New Problems from Old A ""Reduction"" Theorem for the Stirling Numbers The Inclusion-Exclusion Principle Double Counting Derangements A Formula for the Stirling NumbersStirling and Catalan Numbers Stirling Numbers Permutations and Stirling Numbers Catalan Numbers Pa

  20. Modeling the Choice of Telecommuting Frequency in California: An Exploratory Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Mannering, Jill S.; Mokhtarian, Patricia L.

    1995-01-01

    This study explores the individual's choice of telecommuting frequency as a function of demographic, travel, work and attitudinal factors. To do this, multinomial logit models are estimated using data collected in a recent survey of employees from three public agencies in California. Separate models are estimated, one for data collected from the Franchise Tax Board in Sacramento, one for data from the Public Utilities Commission in San Francisco, and one for data collected from employees of t...

  1. Effective Exchange Rate Classifications and Growth

    OpenAIRE

    Justin M. Dubas; Byung-Joo Lee; Nelson C. Mark

    2005-01-01

    We propose an econometric procedure for obtaining de facto exchange rate regime classifications which we apply to study the relationship between exchange rate regimes and economic growth. Our classification method models the de jure regimes as outcomes of a multinomial logit choice problem conditional on the volatility of a country's effective exchange rate, a bilateral exchange rate and international reserves. An `effective' de facto exchange rate regime classification is then obtained by as...

  2. Job satisfaction is more than a fruit basket, health checks and free exercise: Cross-sectional study among 10,000 wage earners

    OpenAIRE

    Andersen, Lars L.; Fishwick, David; Robinson, Edward; Wiezer, Noortje M.; Mockałło, Zofia; Grosjean, Vincent

    2017-01-01

    Aim: Workers who are satisfied with their job are the cornerstones of healthy and productive companies. This study investigated factors associated with job satisfaction in the general working population. Methods: From the 2010 round of the Danish Work Environment Cohort Study, currently employed wage earners (N=10,427) replied to questions about work, lifestyle and health. Multinomial logistic regression controlled for sex, age, job group, smoking, body mass index, chronic disease and general...

  3. Unter welchen Umständen würden deutsche Landwirte gentechnisch veränderten Raps anbauen? Ein Discrete-Choice-Experiment

    OpenAIRE

    Breustedt, Gunnar; Muller-Scheessel, Jorg; Meyer-Schatz, Henrika Marie

    2007-01-01

    We examine the factors affecting the willingness of German farmers to adopt genetically modified (GM) oilseed rape after the pending commercial release of GM varieties. The analysis is based mainly on a web-based Discrete Choice Experiment with 217 oilseed rape growers in Germany. The determinants of adoption were estimated with the use of a multinomial probit model. Results indicate a significant impact of economic determinants on the adoption willingness: the difference in gross margins bet...

  4. Vocational and General Education of Girls and Boys in Tunisia: The Effects of Income and Parental Education

    OpenAIRE

    Mohamed Siala; Nehed Ben Ammar

    2014-01-01

    Throughout Tunisia, basic education is compulsory. Children are required to enroll for at least 9 years from age 6. This paper examines gender differences in education choice of upper basic education of youths aged 15–24 in Tunisia. To investigate the factors that influence an individual’s choice between vocational education, general education (secondary and high education) and leaving school, the paper estimates a multinomial probit model of education choice. We focus on the i...

  5. Prevalence and predictors of musculoskeletal pain among Danish fishermen

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Berg-Beckhoff, Gabriele; Østergaard, Helle; Jepsen, Jørgen Riis

    2016-01-01

    at sea, age, BMI and education were used as predictors for the overall musculoskeletal pain score (multiple linear regression) and for each single pain site (multinomial logistic regression). RESULTS: The prevalence of pain was high for all musculoskeletal locations. Overall, more than 80...... demanding and impacting their musculoskeletal pain. Potential explanation for this unexpected result like increased work pressure and reduced financial attractiveness in small scale commercial fishery needs to be confirmed in future research....

  6. Venues for Meeting Sex Partners and Partner HIV Risk Characteristics: HIV Prevention Trials Network (HPTN064) Women's HIV Seroincidence Study (ISIS)

    OpenAIRE

    Isler, M. Roman; Golin, C.; Wang, J.; Hughes, J.; Justman, J.; Haley, D.; Kuo, I.; Adimora, A.; Chege, W.; Hodder, S.

    2016-01-01

    Identifying venues where women meet sexual partners, particular partners who increase women's risk of acquiring HIV, could inform prevention efforts. We categorized venues where women enrolled in HPTN 064 reported meeting their last three sex partners as: (1) Formal, (2) Public, (3) Private, and (4) Virtual spaces. We used multinomial logistic regression to assess the association between these venues and women's individual characteristics and reports of their partners' HIV risk characteristic...

  7. Location-Price Competition in Airline Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Gao

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper addresses location-then-price competition in airline market as a two-stage game of n players on the graph. Passenger’s demand distribution is described by multinomial logit model. Equilibrium in price game is computed through best response dynamics. We solve location game using backward induction, knowing that airlines will choose prices from equilibrium for the second-stage game. Some numerical results for airline market under consideration are presented.

  8. Strong Maximum Principle for Multi-Term Time-Fractional Diffusion Equations and its Application to an Inverse Source Problem

    OpenAIRE

    Liu, Yikan

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, we establish a strong maximum principle for fractional diffusion equations with multiple Caputo derivatives in time, and investigate a related inverse problem of practical importance. Exploiting the solution properties and the involved multinomial Mittag-Leffler functions, we improve the weak maximum principle for the multi-term time-fractional diffusion equation to a stronger one, which is parallel to that for its single-term counterpart as expected. As a direct application, w...

  9. Speeding Up Non-Parametric Bootstrap Computations for Statistics Based on Sample Moments in Small/Moderate Sample Size Applications.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elias Chaibub Neto

    Full Text Available In this paper we propose a vectorized implementation of the non-parametric bootstrap for statistics based on sample moments. Basically, we adopt the multinomial sampling formulation of the non-parametric bootstrap, and compute bootstrap replications of sample moment statistics by simply weighting the observed data according to multinomial counts instead of evaluating the statistic on a resampled version of the observed data. Using this formulation we can generate a matrix of bootstrap weights and compute the entire vector of bootstrap replications with a few matrix multiplications. Vectorization is particularly important for matrix-oriented programming languages such as R, where matrix/vector calculations tend to be faster than scalar operations implemented in a loop. We illustrate the application of the vectorized implementation in real and simulated data sets, when bootstrapping Pearson's sample correlation coefficient, and compared its performance against two state-of-the-art R implementations of the non-parametric bootstrap, as well as a straightforward one based on a for loop. Our investigations spanned varying sample sizes and number of bootstrap replications. The vectorized bootstrap compared favorably against the state-of-the-art implementations in all cases tested, and was remarkably/considerably faster for small/moderate sample sizes. The same results were observed in the comparison with the straightforward implementation, except for large sample sizes, where the vectorized bootstrap was slightly slower than the straightforward implementation due to increased time expenditures in the generation of weight matrices via multinomial sampling.

  10. Predictive features of CT for risk stratifications in patients with primary gastrointestinal stromal tumour

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhou, Cuiping; Zhang, Xiang; Duan, Xiaohui; Hu, Huijun; Wang, Dongye; Shen, Jun

    2016-01-01

    To determine the predictive CT imaging features for risk stratifications in patients with primary gastrointestinal stromal tumours (GISTs). One hundred and twenty-nine patients with histologically confirmed primary GISTs (diameter >2 cm) were enrolled. CT imaging features were reviewed. Tumour risk stratifications were determined according to the 2008 NIH criteria where GISTs were classified into four categories according to the tumour size, location, mitosis count, and tumour rupture. The association between risk stratifications and CT features was analyzed using univariate analysis, followed by multinomial logistic regression and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. CT imaging features including tumour margin, size, shape, tumour growth pattern, direct organ invasion, necrosis, enlarged vessels feeding or draining the mass (EVFDM), lymphadenopathy, and contrast enhancement pattern were associated with the risk stratifications, as determined by univariate analysis (P < 0.05). Only lesion size, growth pattern and EVFDM remained independent risk factors in multinomial logistic regression analysis (OR = 3.480-100.384). ROC curve analysis showed that the area under curve of the obtained multinomial logistic regression model was 0.806 (95 % CI: 0.727-0.885). CT features including lesion size, tumour growth pattern, and EVFDM were predictors of the risk stratifications for GIST. (orig.)

  11. Cartas de control para monitorear variables multinomiales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luz Marcela Restrepo-Tamayo

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Background: The control as a tool for monitoring the quality of a product, allows to study the stability of processes over time, contrasting two hypothesis, which states that the process is in stable condition and the other denies it. Its use has been massive for continuous variables but not for categorical variables, why it is imperative to design such tools for such variables. Objective: To propose two (2 control charts for variables multinomial processes based on the p-value test result for homogeneity of proportions using the chi square test for uniform processing variables and approximation Wilson - Hilferty for variables chi square. Methods: The performance of proposed charts via simulation is estimated considering a Phase II process and considering the first category increments of 2%, 4% and 6% in the control stage. Results: The multinomial control chart using Wilson-Hilferty approximation for variables chi square, from the transformation of value-p, has poor performance compared to the control charts using p-value processing and using chi-square p-value, as they have less ability to detect small changes. Conclusion: We propose two control charts to monitor multinomial variables and once studied via simulation, based on the average run length (ARL and the probability of rejecting the null hypothesis of equal proportions, we recommend the control chart using value-p, or equivalently, the control chart processing using chi square p-value.

  12. Classifying emotion in Twitter using Bayesian network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Surya Asriadie, Muhammad; Syahrul Mubarok, Mohamad; Adiwijaya

    2018-03-01

    Language is used to express not only facts, but also emotions. Emotions are noticeable from behavior up to the social media statuses written by a person. Analysis of emotions in a text is done in a variety of media such as Twitter. This paper studies classification of emotions on twitter using Bayesian network because of its ability to model uncertainty and relationships between features. The result is two models based on Bayesian network which are Full Bayesian Network (FBN) and Bayesian Network with Mood Indicator (BNM). FBN is a massive Bayesian network where each word is treated as a node. The study shows the method used to train FBN is not very effective to create the best model and performs worse compared to Naive Bayes. F1-score for FBN is 53.71%, while for Naive Bayes is 54.07%. BNM is proposed as an alternative method which is based on the improvement of Multinomial Naive Bayes and has much lower computational complexity compared to FBN. Even though it’s not better compared to FBN, the resulting model successfully improves the performance of Multinomial Naive Bayes. F1-Score for Multinomial Naive Bayes model is 51.49%, while for BNM is 52.14%.

  13. Caregiver Burdens and Preventive Dental Care for Children with Autism Spectrum disorder, developmental disability and/or mental health conditions: National Survey of CSHCN, 2009–10

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vohra, Rini; Sambamoorthi, Usha; Madhavan, S. Suresh

    2016-01-01

    Objective The purpose of this study is to examine the burdens of caregivers on one perception of the need and receipt of preventive dental care for a subset of children with special health care needs—children with Autism Spectrum disorder, developmental disability and/or mental health conditions (CASD/DD/MHC). Methods The authors used the 2009–2010 National Survey of CSHCN. The survey included questions addressing preventive dental care and caregivers’ financial, employment, and time-related burdens. The associations of these burdens on perceptions and receipt of preventive dental care use were analyzed with bivariate Chi square analyses and multinomial logistic regressions for CASD/DD/MHC (N=16,323). Results Overall, 16.3% of CASD/DD/MHC had an unmet preventive dental care need. There were 40.0% of caregivers who reported financial burden, 20.3% who reported employment burden, and 10.8% who reported time burden. A higher percentage of caregivers with financial burden, employment burden, and time-related burden reported that their CASD/DD/MHC did not receive needed preventive dental care (14.1 %, 16.5%, 17.7% respectively) compared to caregivers without financial, employment, or time burdens (9.0%, 9.6%, 11.0% respectively). Caregivers with financial burden (adjusted multinomial odds ratio, 1.38 [95%CI: 1.02, 1.86]) and employment burden (adjusted multinomial odds ratio, 1.45 [95%CI: 1.02, 2.06]) were more likely to report that their child did not receive preventive dental care despite perceived need compared to caregivers without financial or employment burdens. Conclusions for practice Unmet needs for preventive dental care were associated with employment and financial burdens of the caregivers of CASD/DD/MHC. PMID:27465058

  14. Finding A Minimally Informative Dirichlet Prior Using Least Squares

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kelly, Dana

    2011-01-01

    In a Bayesian framework, the Dirichlet distribution is the conjugate distribution to the multinomial likelihood function, and so the analyst is required to develop a Dirichlet prior that incorporates available information. However, as it is a multiparameter distribution, choosing the Dirichlet parameters is less straightforward than choosing a prior distribution for a single parameter, such as p in the binomial distribution. In particular, one may wish to incorporate limited information into the prior, resulting in a minimally informative prior distribution that is responsive to updates with sparse data. In the case of binomial p or Poisson λ, the principle of maximum entropy can be employed to obtain a so-called constrained noninformative prior. However, even in the case of p, such a distribution cannot be written down in the form of a standard distribution (e.g., beta, gamma), and so a beta distribution is used as an approximation in the case of p. In the case of the multinomial model with parametric constraints, the approach of maximum entropy does not appear tractable. This paper presents an alternative approach, based on constrained minimization of a least-squares objective function, which leads to a minimally informative Dirichlet prior distribution. The alpha-factor model for common-cause failure, which is widely used in the United States, is the motivation for this approach, and is used to illustrate the method. In this approach to modeling common-cause failure, the alpha-factors, which are the parameters in the underlying multinomial model for common-cause failure, must be estimated from data that are often quite sparse, because common-cause failures tend to be rare, especially failures of more than two or three components, and so a prior distribution that is responsive to updates with sparse data is needed.

  15. Finding a minimally informative Dirichlet prior distribution using least squares

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kelly, Dana; Atwood, Corwin

    2011-01-01

    In a Bayesian framework, the Dirichlet distribution is the conjugate distribution to the multinomial likelihood function, and so the analyst is required to develop a Dirichlet prior that incorporates available information. However, as it is a multiparameter distribution, choosing the Dirichlet parameters is less straightforward than choosing a prior distribution for a single parameter, such as p in the binomial distribution. In particular, one may wish to incorporate limited information into the prior, resulting in a minimally informative prior distribution that is responsive to updates with sparse data. In the case of binomial p or Poisson λ, the principle of maximum entropy can be employed to obtain a so-called constrained noninformative prior. However, even in the case of p, such a distribution cannot be written down in the form of a standard distribution (e.g., beta, gamma), and so a beta distribution is used as an approximation in the case of p. In the case of the multinomial model with parametric constraints, the approach of maximum entropy does not appear tractable. This paper presents an alternative approach, based on constrained minimization of a least-squares objective function, which leads to a minimally informative Dirichlet prior distribution. The alpha-factor model for common-cause failure, which is widely used in the United States, is the motivation for this approach, and is used to illustrate the method. In this approach to modeling common-cause failure, the alpha-factors, which are the parameters in the underlying multinomial model for common-cause failure, must be estimated from data that are often quite sparse, because common-cause failures tend to be rare, especially failures of more than two or three components, and so a prior distribution that is responsive to updates with sparse data is needed.

  16. Finding a Minimally Informative Dirichlet Prior Distribution Using Least Squares

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kelly, Dana; Atwood, Corwin

    2011-01-01

    In a Bayesian framework, the Dirichlet distribution is the conjugate distribution to the multinomial likelihood function, and so the analyst is required to develop a Dirichlet prior that incorporates available information. However, as it is a multiparameter distribution, choosing the Dirichlet parameters is less straight-forward than choosing a prior distribution for a single parameter, such as p in the binomial distribution. In particular, one may wish to incorporate limited information into the prior, resulting in a minimally informative prior distribution that is responsive to updates with sparse data. In the case of binomial p or Poisson, the principle of maximum entropy can be employed to obtain a so-called constrained noninformative prior. However, even in the case of p, such a distribution cannot be written down in closed form, and so an approximate beta distribution is used in the case of p. In the case of the multinomial model with parametric constraints, the approach of maximum entropy does not appear tractable. This paper presents an alternative approach, based on constrained minimization of a least-squares objective function, which leads to a minimally informative Dirichlet prior distribution. The alpha-factor model for common-cause failure, which is widely used in the United States, is the motivation for this approach, and is used to illustrate the method. In this approach to modeling common-cause failure, the alpha-factors, which are the parameters in the underlying multinomial aleatory model for common-cause failure, must be estimated from data that is often quite sparse, because common-cause failures tend to be rare, especially failures of more than two or three components, and so a prior distribution that is responsive to updates with sparse data is needed.

  17. Nuclear data uncertainties: I, Basic concepts of probability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, D.L.

    1988-12-01

    Some basic concepts of probability theory are presented from a nuclear-data perspective, in order to provide a foundation for thorough understanding of the role of uncertainties in nuclear data research. Topics included in this report are: events, event spaces, calculus of events, randomness, random variables, random-variable distributions, intuitive and axiomatic probability, calculus of probability, conditional probability and independence, probability distributions, binomial and multinomial probability, Poisson and interval probability, normal probability, the relationships existing between these probability laws, and Bayes' theorem. This treatment emphasizes the practical application of basic mathematical concepts to nuclear data research, and it includes numerous simple examples. 34 refs.

  18. CRAN - Package msgl (Version:2.0.125.0)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    2014-01-01

    Sparse group lasso multiclass classification, suitable for high dimensional problems with many classes. Fast algorithm for solving the multinomial sparse group lasso convex optimization problem. This package apply template metaprogramming techniques, therefore – when compiling the package from so...... source – a high level of optimization is needed to gain full speed (e.g. for the GCC compiler use -O3). Use of multiple processors for cross validation and subsampling is supported through OpenMP. The Armadillo C++ library is used as the primary linear algebra engine....

  19. Attitudinal travel demand model for non-work trips of homogeneously constrained segments of a population

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Recker, W.W.; Stevens, R.F.

    1977-06-01

    Market-segmentation techniques are used to capture effects of opportunity and availability constraints on urban residents' choice of mode for trips for major grocery shopping and for visiting friends and acquaintances. Attitudinal multinomial logit choice models are estimated for each market segment. Explanatory variables are individual's beliefs about attributes of four modal alternatives: bus, car, taxi and walking. Factor analysis is employed to identify latent dimensions of perception of the modal alternatives and to eliminate problems of multicollinearity in model estimation.

  20. Inconsistency effects in source memory and compensatory schema-consistent guessing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Küppers, Viviane; Bayen, Ute J

    2014-10-01

    The attention-elaboration hypothesis of memory for schematically unexpected information predicts better source memory for unexpected than expected sources. In three source-monitoring experiments, the authors tested the occurrence of an inconsistency effect in source memory. Participants were presented with items that were schematically either very expected or very unexpected for their source. Multinomial processing tree models were used to separate source memory, item memory, and guessing bias. Results show an inconsistency effect in source memory accompanied by a compensatory schema-consistent guessing bias when expectancy strength is high, that is, when items are very expected or very unexpected for their source.

  1. Meta-analysis data for 104 Energy-Economy Nexus papers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vladimír Hajko

    2017-06-01

    Data cover papers indexed by Scopus, published in economic journals, written in English, after year 2000. In addition, papers were manually filtered to only those that deal with Energy-Economy Nexus investigation and have at least 10 citations at (at the time of query – November 2015. This data are to be used to conduct meta-analysis – associated dataset was used in Hajko [1]. Early version of the dataset was used for multinomial logit estimation in Master thesis by Kociánová [2].

  2. A note on power and sample size calculations for the Kruskal-Wallis test for ordered categorical data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Chunpeng; Zhang, Donghui

    2012-01-01

    Although the Kruskal-Wallis test has been widely used to analyze ordered categorical data, power and sample size methods for this test have been investigated to a much lesser extent when the underlying multinomial distributions are unknown. This article generalizes the power and sample size procedures proposed by Fan et al. ( 2011 ) for continuous data to ordered categorical data, when estimates from a pilot study are used in the place of knowledge of the true underlying distribution. Simulations show that the proposed power and sample size formulas perform well. A myelin oligodendrocyte glycoprotein (MOG) induced experimental autoimmunce encephalomyelitis (EAE) mouse study is used to demonstrate the application of the methods.

  3. optBINS: Optimal Binning for histograms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knuth, Kevin H.

    2018-03-01

    optBINS (optimal binning) determines the optimal number of bins in a uniform bin-width histogram by deriving the posterior probability for the number of bins in a piecewise-constant density model after assigning a multinomial likelihood and a non-informative prior. The maximum of the posterior probability occurs at a point where the prior probability and the the joint likelihood are balanced. The interplay between these opposing factors effectively implements Occam's razor by selecting the most simple model that best describes the data.

  4. Discrete Choice and Rational Inattention

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fosgerau, Mogens; Melo, Emerson; de Palma, André

    2017-01-01

    This paper establishes a general equivalence between discrete choice and rational inattention models. Matejka and McKay (2015, AER) showed that when information costs are modelled using the Shannon entropy, the result- ing choice probabilities in the rational inattention model take the multinomial...... logit form. We show that when information costs are modelled using a class of generalized entropies, then the choice probabilities in any rational inattention model are observationally equivalent to some additive random utility discrete choice model and vice versa. This equivalence arises from convex...

  5. Mismatch repair status and synchronous metastases in colorectal cancer

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nordholm-Carstensen, Andreas; Krarup, Peter-Martin; Morton, Dion

    2015-01-01

    The causality between the metastatic potential, mismatch repair status (MMR) and survival in colorectal cancer (CRC) is complex. This study aimed to investigate the impact of MMR in CRC on the occurrence of synchronous metastases (SCCM) and survival in patients with SCCM on a national basis....... A nationwide cohort study of 6,692 patients diagnosed with CRC between 2010 and 2012 was conducted. Data were prospectively entered into the Danish Colorectal Cancer Group's database and merged with data from the Danish Pathology Registry and the National Patient Registry. Multivariable and multinomial...

  6. Factors Associated with Alcohol Use Before or During Sex Among Men Who Have Sex with Men in a Large Internet Sample from Asia

    OpenAIRE

    Yang, Cui; Guadamuz, Thomas E.; Lim, Sin How; Koe, Stuart; Wei, Chongyi

    2015-01-01

    We explored factors associated with alcohol use before or during sex among a sample of 10,861 men who have sex with men (MSM) in Asia who were recruited online for the study. Multinomial logistic regression analysis indicated that having sex under the influence of alcohol was associated with having multiple male partners, seeking partners primarily through gay bar/gym/dance party/friends, selling sex and using multiple drugs during the past 6 months, and unprotected anal sex. More efforts are...

  7. ABrox-A user-friendly Python module for approximate Bayesian computation with a focus on model comparison.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mertens, Ulf Kai; Voss, Andreas; Radev, Stefan

    2018-01-01

    We give an overview of the basic principles of approximate Bayesian computation (ABC), a class of stochastic methods that enable flexible and likelihood-free model comparison and parameter estimation. Our new open-source software called ABrox is used to illustrate ABC for model comparison on two prominent statistical tests, the two-sample t-test and the Levene-Test. We further highlight the flexibility of ABC compared to classical Bayesian hypothesis testing by computing an approximate Bayes factor for two multinomial processing tree models. Last but not least, throughout the paper, we introduce ABrox using the accompanied graphical user interface.

  8. Mathematical Modeling for Risk Averse Firm Facing Loss Averse Customer’s Stochastic Uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seungbeom Kim

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available To optimize the firm’s profit during a finite planning horizon, a dynamic programming model is used to make joint pricing and inventory replenishment decision assuming that customers are loss averse and the firm is risk averse. We model the loss averse customer’s demand using the multinomial choice model. In this choice model, we consider the acquisition and transition utilities widely used by a mental accounting theory which also incorporate the reference price and actual price. Then, we show that there is an optimal inventory policy which is base-stock policy depending on the accumulated wealth in each period.

  9. Electoral system, pesonal votes, and party choice

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thomsen, Søren Risbjerg

    Using local elections in Denmark as an example this paper shows that individual party choice is influenced both by individual level, municipality level, and national level characteristics. Some hypotheses about the effects of the electoral system on personal votes derived from a theory by Carey...... & Shugart (1995) are first tested using a fixed-effects model. The effect of the personal reputation of the candidates, measured by personal votes, on party choice is then tested using a multilevel multinomial logit model suggested by Rabe-Hesketh and Skrondal (2008). The paper shows that both the electoral...

  10. Un Análisis de las Variaciones de Precios Diarias en el Mercado de Liniers

    OpenAIRE

    Rossini, Gustavo

    2007-01-01

    A pesar de la importancia como mercado de referencia para la ganadería vacuna argentina, pocos estudios han examinado el comportamiento de las variaciones de los precios diarios en las categorías comercializadas en el Mercado de Liniers. Dado esto, el objetivo de este trabajo es aportar información sobre la incidencia de variables seleccionadas sobre los cambios en los precios diarios en este mercado en las categorías de mayor ingreso diario. Para ello, un Modelo Logístico Multinomial es usad...

  11. Human Capital Theory and Internal Migration: Do Average Outcomes Distort Our View of Migrant Motives?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Korpi, Martin; Clark, William A W

    2017-05-01

    By modelling the distribution of percentage income gains for movers in Sweden, using multinomial logistic regression, this paper shows that those receiving large pecuniary returns from migration are primarily those moving to the larger metropolitan areas and those with higher education, and that there is much more variability in income gains than what is often assumed in models of average gains to migration. This suggests that human capital models of internal migration often overemphasize the job and income motive for moving, and fail to explore where and when human capital motivated migration occurs.

  12. Latent spatial models and sampling design for landscape genetics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanks, Ephraim M.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Knick, Steven T.; Oyler-McCance, Sara J.; Fike, Jennifer A.; Cross, Todd B.; Schwartz, Michael K.

    2016-01-01

    We propose a spatially-explicit approach for modeling genetic variation across space and illustrate how this approach can be used to optimize spatial prediction and sampling design for landscape genetic data. We propose a multinomial data model for categorical microsatellite allele data commonly used in landscape genetic studies, and introduce a latent spatial random effect to allow for spatial correlation between genetic observations. We illustrate how modern dimension reduction approaches to spatial statistics can allow for efficient computation in landscape genetic statistical models covering large spatial domains. We apply our approach to propose a retrospective spatial sampling design for greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) population genetics in the western United States.

  13. Is Healthier Nutrition Behaviour Associated with Better Self-Reported Health and Less Health Complaints?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ansari, Walid El; Suominen, Sakari; Berg-Beckhoff, Gabriele

    2015-01-01

    (sweets, cakes and snacks; and fruits and vegetables), a dietary guideline adherence index and the subjective importance of healthy eating. Multinomial logistic regression assessed the association of students' nutrition behaviour with three levels of self-reported health, controlling for many potential...... associated with a higher consumption of sweets, cookies and snacks and a lower adherence to dietary guidelines. More healthy nutrition behaviour was consistently associated with better self-reported health and less health complaints. Of the four nutrition behaviour indicators we employed, the dietary...

  14. Transitions between states of labor-force participation among older Israelis

    OpenAIRE

    Achdut, Leah; Tur-Sinai, Aviad; Troitsky, Rita

    2014-01-01

    The study examines the labor-force behavior of Israelis at older ages, focusing on the determinants of the transitions between states of labor-force participation between 2005 and 2010. The study uses panel data from the first two waves of the SHARE-Israel longitudinal survey. A multinomial logit model is used to examine the impact of sociodemographic characteristics, health state, and economic resources on labor-force transitions of people aged 50–67. The results emphasize the role of age an...

  15. Don’t Work, Work at Home, or Commute? Discrete Choice Models of the Decision for San Francisco Bay Area Residents

    OpenAIRE

    Ory, D T; Mokhtarian, Patricia L

    2005-01-01

    Using socio-demographic, personality, and attitudinal data from 1,680 residents of the San Francisco Bay Area, we develop and estimate binary, multinomial, and nested logit models of the choice to work or not, whether or not to work at home, and whether to commute all of the time or some of the time (either by only working part time, or by working a compressed work week, or by telecommuting some of the time). To our knowledge, these are the first models of all these choices simultaneously. Th...

  16. Modeling the Joint Labor-Commute Engagement Decisions of San Francisco Bay Area Residents

    OpenAIRE

    Ory, David T.; Mokhtarian, Patricia L.

    2005-01-01

    Using socio-demographic, personality, and attitudinal data from 1,680 residents of the San Francisco Bay Area, we develop and estimate binary, multinomial, and nested logit models of the choice to work or not, whether or not to work at home, and whether to commute all of the time or some of the time (either by only working part time, or by working a compressed work week, or by telecommuting some of the time). To our knowledge, these are the first models of all these choices simultaneously. Th...

  17. Trouble Sleeping Associated With Lower Work Performance and Greater Health Care Costs: Longitudinal Data From Kansas State Employee Wellness Program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hui, Siu-kuen Azor; Grandner, Michael A

    2015-10-01

    To examine the relationships between employees' trouble sleeping and absenteeism, work performance, and health care expenditures over a 2-year period. Utilizing the Kansas State employee wellness program (EWP) data set from 2008 to 2009, multinomial logistic regression analyses were conducted with trouble sleeping as the predictor and absenteeism, work performance, and health care costs as the outcomes. EWP participants (N = 11,698 in 2008; 5636 followed up in 2009) who had higher levels of sleep disturbance were more likely to be absent from work (all P work performance ratings (all P health care costs (P work attendance, work performance, and health care costs.

  18. The effect of major income sources on rural household food (in)security: Evidence from Swaziland and implications for policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mabuza, Majola L; Ortmann, Gerald F; Wale, Edilegnaw; Mutenje, Munyaradzi J

    2016-01-01

    The aim of this article was to investigate the food (in)security effect of household income generated from major economic activities in rural Swaziland. From a sample of 979 households, the results of a multinomial treatment regression model indicated that gender of household head, labor endowment, education, size of arable land, and location significantly influenced the households' choice of primary economic activity. Further results suggested that off-farm-income-dependent households were less likely to be food insecure when compared with on-farm-income-dependent households. However, on-farm-income-dependent households had a better food security status than their counterparts who depended on remittances and nonfarm economic activities.

  19. The choice of facilitators in medical tourism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gan, Lydia L; Frederick, James R

    2018-01-01

    The study identified which of the four facilitators (themselves, agents, insurers, or doctors) consumers are most likely to use when they travel for various medical procedures. A survey conducted between 2011 and 2014 yielded 964 responses. The multinomial logistic regression results showed that being 51-64 years old was positively related to going on their own or using agents to arrange for knee replacements. Having a high school education or less was positively linked to using both agents and insurers to facilitate knee replacements, whereas having a bachelor's degree was negatively associated with going on their own for stem cell therapy.

  20. Choice Model and Influencing Factor Analysis of Travel Mode for Migrant Workers: Case Study in Xi’an, China

    OpenAIRE

    Hong Chen; Zuo-xian Gan; Yu-ting He

    2015-01-01

    Based on the basic theory and methods of disaggregate choice model, the influencing factors in travel mode choice for migrant workers are analyzed, according to 1366 data samples of Xi’an migrant workers. Walking, bus, subway, and taxi are taken as the alternative parts of travel modes for migrant workers, and a multinomial logit (MNL) model of travel mode for migrant workers is set up. The validity of the model is verified by the hit rate, and the hit rates of four travel modes are all great...

  1. La influencia de la densidad competitiva en el resultado de los equipos en el fútbol de alto nivel. (The influence of a congested football calendar on the results obtained by teams in professional soccer.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joaquín Lago Ballesteros

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Resumen Existe una considerable variación en el número de partidos disputados por los equipos de fútbol durante una temporada. Los mejores equipos juegan varios partidos a la semana tanto en las competiciones domesticas como en la Liga de Campeones. Se ha especulado que un período cargado de partidos puede limitar el rendimiento de los conjuntos. En este trabajo se estudia el efecto que tiene para un equipo disputar un partido de la Liga de Campeones sobre el resultado alcanzado en el encuentro de la Liga Española en el fin de semana anterior. La muestra consiste en 374 partidos de la Liga Española jugados por los equipos que se encontraban simultáneamente disputando la Liga de Campeones entre las temporadas 2003-2004 y 2006- 2007. Los resultados alcanzados mediante un modelo logit multinomial permiten demostrar que disputar un partido de la Liga de Campeones no reduce la probabilidad de ganar en el partido de la Liga Española. Además se ha verificado que la probabilidad de ganar en el partido del fin de semana de la Liga Española es mayor cuando el partido de la Liga de Campeones a disputar pertenece a la fase de liguilla respecto a si se corresponde con el formato de eliminación directa.Palabras clave: fútbol; liga española; liga de campeones; logit multinomial; densidad competitive. Abstract There is a considerable variation in the number of matches played per season by clubs in the Spanish Soccer. The successful top clubs play several matches a week in domestic leagues as well as in the UEFA Champions League. It has been speculated that a period full of matches can lead to player fatigue which may result in underperformance. Using data from 374 matches of the Spanish Soccer League played from the 2003-04 to the 2006-07 seasons and according to the estimation based on logit multinomial this study shows that Spanish Champions League teams did not perform below their normal standard at the weekend when they played a Champions

  2. Nuclear data uncertainties: I, Basic concepts of probability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, D.L.

    1988-12-01

    Some basic concepts of probability theory are presented from a nuclear-data perspective, in order to provide a foundation for thorough understanding of the role of uncertainties in nuclear data research. Topics included in this report are: events, event spaces, calculus of events, randomness, random variables, random-variable distributions, intuitive and axiomatic probability, calculus of probability, conditional probability and independence, probability distributions, binomial and multinomial probability, Poisson and interval probability, normal probability, the relationships existing between these probability laws, and Bayes' theorem. This treatment emphasizes the practical application of basic mathematical concepts to nuclear data research, and it includes numerous simple examples. 34 refs

  3. Faà di Bruno's formula and the distributions of random partitions in population genetics and physics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoppe, Fred M

    2008-06-01

    We show that the formula of Faà di Bruno for the derivative of a composite function gives, in special cases, the sampling distributions in population genetics that are due to Ewens and to Pitman. The composite function is the same in each case. Other sampling distributions also arise in this way, such as those arising from Dirichlet, multivariate hypergeometric, and multinomial models, special cases of which correspond to Bose-Einstein, Fermi-Dirac, and Maxwell-Boltzmann distributions in physics. Connections are made to compound sampling models.

  4. Primary and secondary socialization impacts on support for same-sex marriage after legalization in the Netherlands.

    OpenAIRE

    Lubbers, M; Jaspers, E.; Ultee, W.C.

    2009-01-01

    Two years after the legalization of same-sex marriages in the Netherlands, 65% of the Dutch population largely or completely disagrees with the statement “gay marriage should be abolished.” This article shows, by way of multinomial logistic regression analysis of survey data, which socializing agents influence one’s attitude toward same-sex marriage after its legalization (FNB2003; N = 2,124). Parents’ attitudes toward homosexuality during one’s youth strongly affect one’s attitude toward sam...

  5. Impact of Perceived Risk and Friend Influence on Alcohol and Marijuana Use Among Students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merianos, Ashley L; Rosen, Brittany L; Montgomery, LaTrice; Barry, Adam E; Smith, Matthew Lee

    2017-12-01

    We performed a secondary analysis of Adolescent Health Risk Behavior Survey data ( N = 937), examining associations between lifetime alcohol and marijuana use with intrapersonal (i.e., risk perceptions) and interpersonal (e.g., peer approval and behavior) factors. Multinomial and binary logistic regression analyses contend students reporting lifetime alcohol use-compared to students who had never used alcohol or marijuana-perceived lower alcohol risk ( p academic performance decreased the risk of lifetime alcohol and marijuana use ( p = .043). Findings are beneficial to school nurses with students experiencing effects associated with substance use.

  6. Interpreting and Understanding Logits, Probits, and other Non-Linear Probability Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Breen, Richard; Karlson, Kristian Bernt; Holm, Anders

    2018-01-01

    Methods textbooks in sociology and other social sciences routinely recommend the use of the logit or probit model when an outcome variable is binary, an ordered logit or ordered probit when it is ordinal, and a multinomial logit when it has more than two categories. But these methodological...... guidelines take little or no account of a body of work that, over the past 30 years, has pointed to problematic aspects of these nonlinear probability models and, particularly, to difficulties in interpreting their parameters. In this chapterreview, we draw on that literature to explain the problems, show...

  7. National and international graduate migration flows.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mosca, Irene; Wright, Robert E

    2010-01-01

    This article examines the nature of national and international graduate migration flows in the UK. Migration equations are estimated with microdata from a matched dataset of Students and Destinations of Leavers from Higher Education, information collected by the Higher Education Statistical Agency. The probability of migrating is related to a set of observable characteristics using multinomial logit regression. The analysis suggests that migration is a selective process with graduates with certain characteristics having considerably higher probabilities of migrating, both to other regions of the UK and abroad.

  8. Maximization of Tsallis entropy in the combinatorial formulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suyari, Hiroki

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents the mathematical reformulation for maximization of Tsallis entropy S q in the combinatorial sense. More concretely, we generalize the original derivation of Maxwell-Boltzmann distribution law to Tsallis statistics by means of the corresponding generalized multinomial coefficient. Our results reveal that maximization of S 2-q under the usual expectation or S q under q-average using the escort expectation are naturally derived from the combinatorial formulations for Tsallis statistics with respective combinatorial dualities, that is, one for additive duality and the other for multiplicative duality.

  9. Extreme negative coexceedances in South Eastern European stock markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tevdovski, Dragan

    The aim of this paper is to analyze the financial integration of the South Eastern Europe (SEE) stock markets. We use a multinomial logistic regression to analyze how persistence, asset class and volatility effects are related with negative coexceedances in SEE markets. We find evidence in favor...... of the continuation hypothesis in SEE stock markets. However, the factors associated with the coexceedances differ between the EU member countries from SEE and EU accession countries from SEE stock markets.The EU member countries are more dependent from the signals from major EU economies, while the accession...

  10. Estrutura do mercado de trabalho metropolitano na região sul do Brasil, em 1995 e em 2005

    OpenAIRE

    Sampaio,Armando Vaz

    2012-01-01

    Para melhor compreender as transições que ocorrem no mercado de trabalho, é importante considerar os fluxos de estar empregado, desempregado e fora do mercado de trabalho e as probabilidades envolvidas em função de variáveis socioeconômicas e geográficas. O modelo econométrico utilizado foi o multinomial logit, em que se observou que há diferença de gênero com respeito a estar ocupado e fora do mercado de trabalho, sendo que, para a primeira situação, a probabilidade é maior para o homem e, p...

  11. Clustering in Hilbert simplex geometry

    KAUST Repository

    Nielsen, Frank

    2017-04-03

    Clustering categorical distributions in the probability simplex is a fundamental primitive often met in applications dealing with histograms or mixtures of multinomials. Traditionally, the differential-geometric structure of the probability simplex has been used either by (i) setting the Riemannian metric tensor to the Fisher information matrix of the categorical distributions, or (ii) defining the information-geometric structure induced by a smooth dissimilarity measure, called a divergence. In this paper, we introduce a novel computationally-friendly non-Riemannian framework for modeling the probability simplex: Hilbert simplex geometry. We discuss the pros and cons of those three statistical modelings, and compare them experimentally for clustering tasks.

  12. Trouble Sleeping Associated with Lower Work Performance and Greater Healthcare Costs: Longitudinal Data from Kansas State Employee Wellness Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hui, Siu-kuen Azor; Grandner, Michael A.

    2015-01-01

    Objective To examine the relationships between employees’ trouble sleeping and absenteeism, work performance, and healthcare expenditures over a two year period. Methods Utilizing the Kansas State employee wellness program (EWP) dataset from 2008–2009, multinomial logistic regression analyses were conducted with trouble sleeping as the predictor and absenteeism, work performance, and healthcare costs as the outcomes. Results EWP participants (N=11,698 in 2008; 5,636 followed up in 2009) who had higher levels of sleep disturbance were more likely to be absent from work (all p performance ratings (all p performance, and healthcare costs. PMID:26461857

  13. Effects of public premiums on children's health insurance coverage: evidence from 1999 to 2003.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kenney, Genevieve; Hadley, Jack; Blavin, Fredric

    This study uses 2000 to 2004 Current Population Survey data to examine the effects of public premiums on the insurance coverage of children whose family incomes are between 100% and 300% of the federal poverty level. The analysis employs multinomial logistic models that control for factors other than premium costs. While the magnitude of the estimated effects varies across models, the results consistently indicate that raising public premiums reduces enrollment in public programs, with some children who forgo public coverage having private coverage instead and others being uninsured. The results indicate that public premiums have larger effects when applied to lower-income families.

  14. Socio-economic determinants of severe and moderate stunting among under-five children of rural Bangladesh.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mostafa, Kamal S M

    2011-04-01

    Malnutrition among under-five children is a chronic problem in developing countries. This study explores the socio-economic determinants of severe and moderate stunting among under-five children of rural Bangladesh. The study used data from the 2007 Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey. Cross-sectional and multinomial logistic regression analyses were used to assess the effect of the socio-demographic variables on moderate and severe stunting over normal among the children. Findings revealed that over two-fifths of the children were stunted, of which 26.3% were moderately stunted and 15.1% were severely stunted. The multivariate multinomial logistic regression analysis yielded significantly increased risk of severe stunting (OR=2.53, 95% CI=1.34-4.79) and moderate stunting (OR=2.37, 95% CI=1.47-3.83) over normal among children with a thinner mother. Region, father's education, toilet facilities, child's age, birth order of children and wealth index were also important determinants of children's nutritional status. Development and poverty alleviation programmes should focus on the disadvantaged rural segments of people to improve their nutritional status.

  15. Determinants of Agricultural Diversification in a Hotspot Area: Evidence from Colonist and Indigenous Communities in the Sumaco Biosphere Reserve, Ecuadorian Amazon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bolier Torres

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available With data from a household survey covering migrant settlers and indigenous (Kichwa communities in the Sumaco Biosphere Reserve (SBR, this study analyses the drivers of agricultural diversification/specialisation, focusing on the role of ethnicity and the livelihood strategies (LS they follow. Data were collected using the Poverty and Environment Network methodology of the Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR-PEN. In order to establish the drivers of agricultural diversification, the number of crops and the Shannon index of crops areas were used as the dependent variables in ordinary least square (OLS models, while a multinomial logit model (MLM was used to assess a household’s degree of diversification. The results of the OLS regression provides evidence supporting the notion that households, with Livestock-based and Wage-based livelihood strategies (LS are less diversified and more specialized than households with Crop-based LS. Ethnicity has a positive and significant effect on agricultural diversification, with Kichwa farms more diversified than those of their migrant colonist counterparts. The results of the multinomial logit model (MLM show that large Kichwa households, with Crop-based and Forest-based LS are more likely to adopt a highly diversified agricultural strategy. Based on these findings, we recommend a redirection of agricultural incentives, towards the adoption of diversified agricultural systems, as a strategy to promote more sustainable production systems in the Ecuadorian Amazon Region.

  16. Patient choice modelling: how do patients choose their hospitals?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Honora; Currie, Christine; Chaiwuttisak, Pornpimol; Kyprianou, Andreas

    2018-06-01

    As an aid to predicting future hospital admissions, we compare use of the Multinomial Logit and the Utility Maximising Nested Logit models to describe how patients choose their hospitals. The models are fitted to real data from Derbyshire, United Kingdom, which lists the postcodes of more than 200,000 admissions to six different local hospitals. Both elective and emergency admissions are analysed for this mixed urban/rural area. For characteristics that may affect a patient's choice of hospital, we consider the distance of the patient from the hospital, the number of beds at the hospital and the number of car parking spaces available at the hospital, as well as several statistics publicly available on National Health Service (NHS) websites: an average waiting time, the patient survey score for ward cleanliness, the patient safety score and the inpatient survey score for overall care. The Multinomial Logit model is successfully fitted to the data. Results obtained with the Utility Maximising Nested Logit model show that nesting according to city or town may be invalid for these data; in other words, the choice of hospital does not appear to be preceded by choice of city. In all of the analysis carried out, distance appears to be one of the main influences on a patient's choice of hospital rather than statistics available on the Internet.

  17. Cognitive overload? An exploration of the potential impact of cognitive functioning in discrete choice experiments with older people in health care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milte, Rachel; Ratcliffe, Julie; Chen, Gang; Lancsar, Emily; Miller, Michelle; Crotty, Maria

    2014-07-01

    This exploratory study sought to investigate the effect of cognitive functioning on the consistency of individual responses to a discrete choice experiment (DCE) study conducted exclusively with older people. A DCE to investigate preferences for multidisciplinary rehabilitation was administered to a consenting sample of older patients (aged 65 years and older) after surgery to repair a fractured hip (N = 84). Conditional logit, mixed logit, heteroscedastic conditional logit, and generalized multinomial logit regression models were used to analyze the DCE data and to explore the relationship between the level of cognitive functioning (specifically the absence or presence of mild cognitive impairment as assessed by the Mini-Mental State Examination) and preference and scale heterogeneity. Both the heteroscedastic conditional logit and generalized multinomial logit models indicated that the presence of mild cognitive impairment did not have a significant effect on the consistency of responses to the DCE. This study provides important preliminary evidence relating to the effect of mild cognitive impairment on DCE responses for older people. It is important that further research be conducted in larger samples and more diverse populations to further substantiate the findings from this exploratory study and to assess the practicality and validity of the DCE approach with populations of older people. Copyright © 2014 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Identifiability in N-mixture models: a large-scale screening test with bird data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kéry, Marc

    2018-02-01

    Binomial N-mixture models have proven very useful in ecology, conservation, and monitoring: they allow estimation and modeling of abundance separately from detection probability using simple counts. Recently, doubts about parameter identifiability have been voiced. I conducted a large-scale screening test with 137 bird data sets from 2,037 sites. I found virtually no identifiability problems for Poisson and zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) binomial N-mixture models, but negative-binomial (NB) models had problems in 25% of all data sets. The corresponding multinomial N-mixture models had no problems. Parameter estimates under Poisson and ZIP binomial and multinomial N-mixture models were extremely similar. Identifiability problems became a little more frequent with smaller sample sizes (267 and 50 sites), but were unaffected by whether the models did or did not include covariates. Hence, binomial N-mixture model parameters with Poisson and ZIP mixtures typically appeared identifiable. In contrast, NB mixtures were often unidentifiable, which is worrying since these were often selected by Akaike's information criterion. Identifiability of binomial N-mixture models should always be checked. If problems are found, simpler models, integrated models that combine different observation models or the use of external information via informative priors or penalized likelihoods, may help. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

  19. Cross-Jurisdictional Resource Sharing in Changing Public Health Landscape: Contributory Factors and Theoretical Explanations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shah, Gulzar H; Badana, Adrian N S; Robb, Claire; Livingood, William C

    2016-01-01

    Local health departments (LHDs) are striving to meet public health needs within their jurisdictions, amidst fiscal restraints and complex dynamic environment. Resource sharing across jurisdictions is a critical opportunity for LHDs to continue to enhance effectiveness and increase efficiency. This research examines the extent of cross-jurisdictional resource sharing among LHDs, the programmatic areas and organizational functions for which LHDs share resources, and LHD characteristics associated with resource sharing. Data from the National Association of County & City Health Officials' 2013 National Profile of LHDs were used. Descriptive statistics and multinomial logistic regression were performed for the 5 implementation-oriented outcome variables of interest, with 3 levels of implementation. More than 54% of LHDs shared resources such as funding, staff, or equipment with 1 or more other LHDs on a continuous, recurring basis. Results from the multinomial regression analysis indicate that economies of scale (population size and metropolitan status) had significant positive influences (at P ≤ .05) on resource sharing. Engagement in accreditation, community health assessment, community health improvement planning, quality improvement, and use of the Community Guide were associated with lower levels of engagement in resource sharing. Doctoral degree of the top executive and having 1 or more local boards of health carried a positive influence on resource sharing. Cross-jurisdictional resource sharing is a viable and commonly used process to overcome the challenges of new and emerging public health problems within the constraints of restricted budgets. LHDs, particularly smaller LHDs with limited resources, should consider increased resource sharing to address emerging challenges.

  20. Making sense of sparse rating data in collaborative filtering via topographic organization of user preference patterns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Polcicová, Gabriela; Tino, Peter

    2004-01-01

    We introduce topographic versions of two latent class models (LCM) for collaborative filtering. Latent classes are topologically organized on a square grid. Topographic organization of latent classes makes orientation in rating/preference patterns captured by the latent classes easier and more systematic. The variation in film rating patterns is modelled by multinomial and binomial distributions with varying independence assumptions. In the first stage of topographic LCM construction, self-organizing maps with neural field organized according to the LCM topology are employed. We apply our system to a large collection of user ratings for films. The system can provide useful visualization plots unveiling user preference patterns buried in the data, without loosing potential to be a good recommender model. It appears that multinomial distribution is most adequate if the model is regularized by tight grid topologies. Since we deal with probabilistic models of the data, we can readily use tools from probability and information theories to interpret and visualize information extracted by our system.

  1. Dengue-specific serotype related to clinical severity during the 2012/2013 epidemic in centre of Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rocha, Benigno A M; Guilarde, Adriana O; Argolo, Angela F L T; Tassara, Marianna Peres; da Silveira, Lucimeire A; Junqueira, Isabela C; Turchi, Marília D; Féres, Valéria C R; Martelli, Celina M T

    2017-08-02

    Please see Additional file 1 for translations of the abstract into the five official working languages of the United Nations. Currently, in Brazil, there is a co-circulation of the four dengue (DENV-1 to DENV-4) serotypes. This study aimed to assess whether different serotypes and antibody response patterns were associated with the severity of the disease during a dengue outbreak, which occurred in 2012/2013 in centre of Brazil. We conducted a prospective study with 452 patients with laboratory confirmed dengue in central Brazil, from January 2012 to July 2013. The clinical outcome was the severity of cases: dengue, dengue with warning signs, and severe dengue. The patients were evaluated at three different moments. Blood sampling for laboratory testing and confirmatory tests for dengue infection were performed. We performed a multinomial analysis considering the three categories of the dependent variable, as outlined above. The odds ratios (ORs) were calculated. A multinomial logistic regression model was applied for variables with a P-value Brazil. Our findings contribute to the understanding of clinical differences and immune status related to the serotypes DENV-1 and DENV-4 in central of Brazil.

  2. Modeling pedestrian shopping behavior using principles of bounded rationality: model comparison and validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Wei; Timmermans, Harry

    2011-06-01

    Models of geographical choice behavior have been dominantly based on rational choice models, which assume that decision makers are utility-maximizers. Rational choice models may be less appropriate as behavioral models when modeling decisions in complex environments in which decision makers may simplify the decision problem using heuristics. Pedestrian behavior in shopping streets is an example. We therefore propose a modeling framework for pedestrian shopping behavior incorporating principles of bounded rationality. We extend three classical heuristic rules (conjunctive, disjunctive and lexicographic rule) by introducing threshold heterogeneity. The proposed models are implemented using data on pedestrian behavior in Wang Fujing Street, the city center of Beijing, China. The models are estimated and compared with multinomial logit models and mixed logit models. Results show that the heuristic models are the best for all the decisions that are modeled. Validation tests are carried out through multi-agent simulation by comparing simulated spatio-temporal agent behavior with the observed pedestrian behavior. The predictions of heuristic models are slightly better than those of the multinomial logit models.

  3. Influence of Parking Price on Parking Garage Users’ Behaviour

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jelena Simićević

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Parking charge is a powerful tool for solving parking and traffic congestion problems. In order to achieve the expected effects without any adverse impact it is necessary to understand well the users’ responses to this policy. This paper, based on a sample of interviewed parking garage users, has developed binary logit model for identification and quantification of characteristics of users and trips, on which the acceptance of parking price is dependent. In addition, multinomial logit model has been made in order to predict what the users will opt for when faced with an increase in parking price. For the first time the parameter “shorten duration” has been introduced which has shown to be the most significant in making behaviour-related decisions. The results show that the users with the purpose work are the most sensitive to an increase in parking charge, what can be deemed positive for policy makers. However, great sensitivity of the users with the purpose shopping should cause their concern. The results of the multinomial model show that they would not discontinue coming into the area after all.

  4. Prevalence of and risk factors for depressive symptoms among people living with HIV/AIDS receiving antiretroviral treatment in Wuhan, China: a short report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rong, Hu; Nianhua, Xie; Jun, Xu; Lianguo, Ruan; Si, Wu; Sheng, Wei; Heng, Guo; Xia, Wang

    2017-12-01

    We aimed to explore the prevalence of and risk factors for depressive symptoms (DS) among people living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA) receiving antiretroviral treatment (ART) in Wuhan, Hubei, China. A cross-sectional study evaluating adult PLWHA receiving ART in nine designated clinical hospitals was conducted from October to December 2015. The validated Beck Depression Inventory (BDI) was used to assess DS in eligible participants. Socio-demographical, epidemiological and clinical data were directly extracted from the case reporting database of the China HIV/AIDS Information Network. Multinomial regression analysis was used to explore the risk factors for DS. 394 participants were finally included in all analyses. 40.3% were found to have DS with 13.7% having mild DS and 26.6% having moderate to severe DS. The results of multinomial regression analysis suggested that being married or living with a partner, recent experience of ART-related side effects, and/or history of HCV infection were positively associated with mild DS, while increasing age was positively associated with moderate to severe DS.

  5. The perception of the relationship between environment and health according to data from Italian Behavioural Risk Factor Surveillance System (PASSI).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sampaolo, Letizia; Tommaso, Giulia; Gherardi, Bianca; Carrozzi, Giuliano; Freni Sterrantino, Anna; Ottone, Marta; Goldoni, Carlo Alberto; Bertozzi, Nicoletta; Scaringi, Meri; Bolognesi, Lara; Masocco, Maria; Salmaso, Stefania; Lauriola, Paolo

    2017-01-01

    "OBJECTIVES: to identify groups of people in relation to the perception of environmental risk and to assess the main characteristics using data collected in the environmental module of the surveillance network Italian Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (PASSI). perceptive profiles were identified using a latent class analysis; later they were included as outcome in multinomial logistic regression models to assess the association between environmental risk perception and demographic, health, socio-economic and behavioural variables. the latent class analysis allowed to split the sample in "worried", "indifferent", and "positive" people. The multinomial logistic regression model showed that the "worried" profile typically includes people of Italian nationality, living in highly urbanized areas, with a high level of education, and with economic difficulties; they pay special attention to their own health and fitness, but they have a negative perception of their own psychophysical state. the application of advanced statistical analysis enable to appraise PASSI data in order to characterize the perception of environmental risk, making the planning of interventions related to risk communication possible. ".

  6. Risk factors for malignancy in patients with solitary thyroid nodules and their impact on the management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jun D Tai

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Presently it is difficult to differentiate malignancy for thyroid nodules by palpation, ultrasonography and fine-needle aspiration cytology (FNAC at the outpatient department, especially for solitary thyroid nodule (STN. So a great emphasis should be placed on the STN. AIms: The objective of this study was to investigate the predictive clinicopathological risk factors for malignancy in patients with STN and further to provide an appropriate clinical management. Materials and Methods: The records were reviewed from 265 patients with STN who had undergone thyroidectomy in our hospital. All cases were classified as two independent groups in terms of the final pathological results to assess the independent risk factors using a multinomial logistic regression analysis. Results: A multinomial logistic analysis revealed that the male gender, microcalcification and cervical lymphadenopathy were independent risk factors related to malignancy in patients with STN. The incidence of malignancy in patients with 0,1,2,3 risks was 10.71%, 26.6%, 61.43%, and 100%, respectively. Conclusions: Male gender, microcalcification and lymphadenopathy were independent risk factors for predicting the malignancy in patients with STN. Patients with more than two of those risk factors should be subjected to further examination or thyroidectomy. The findings may provide a simple and reasonable management for the STN.

  7. Airport terminal choice model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudia Helena Muñoz-Hoyos

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available La mayoría de los estudios del modo aéreo han tratado individua lmente los aspectos de tarifas, demoras y demás variables inher entes a este medio de transporte, así como la elección del modo aéreo f rente a otros modos, pero poco se ha hecho por modelar cómo un viajero elige un aeropuerto entre dos opciones disponibles en una gran ciudad. En la actualidad un pasajero que parte de la ciudad de Medellín - Colombia a algunos destinos nacionales, tiene la opción de v iajar por alguno de los dos aeropuertos, el José María Córdova (JMC o el Enriqu e Olaya Herrera (EOH; esta investigación presenta los resultad os de una encuesta de preferencias declaradas en un experimento de elecci ón discreta, y partiendo de esto se obtiene un modelo por desti no; para cada uno de estos se hallaron modelos logit multinomial y logit mixt o; en cada trayecto evaluado se eligió el logit multinomial com o el mejor.

  8. Three faces of entropy for complex systems: Information, thermodynamics, and the maximum entropy principle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thurner, Stefan; Corominas-Murtra, Bernat; Hanel, Rudolf

    2017-09-01

    There are at least three distinct ways to conceptualize entropy: entropy as an extensive thermodynamic quantity of physical systems (Clausius, Boltzmann, Gibbs), entropy as a measure for information production of ergodic sources (Shannon), and entropy as a means for statistical inference on multinomial processes (Jaynes maximum entropy principle). Even though these notions represent fundamentally different concepts, the functional form of the entropy for thermodynamic systems in equilibrium, for ergodic sources in information theory, and for independent sampling processes in statistical systems, is degenerate, H (p ) =-∑ipilogpi . For many complex systems, which are typically history-dependent, nonergodic, and nonmultinomial, this is no longer the case. Here we show that for such processes, the three entropy concepts lead to different functional forms of entropy, which we will refer to as SEXT for extensive entropy, SIT for the source information rate in information theory, and SMEP for the entropy functional that appears in the so-called maximum entropy principle, which characterizes the most likely observable distribution functions of a system. We explicitly compute these three entropy functionals for three concrete examples: for Pólya urn processes, which are simple self-reinforcing processes, for sample-space-reducing (SSR) processes, which are simple history dependent processes that are associated with power-law statistics, and finally for multinomial mixture processes.

  9. Factors associated with happiness in the elderly persons living in the community.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luchesi, Bruna Moretti; de Oliveira, Nathalia Alves; de Morais, Daiene; de Paula Pessoa, Rebeca Mendes; Pavarini, Sofia Cristina I; Chagas, Marcos Hortes N

    2018-01-01

    The aim of the present study was to evaluate factors associated with happiness in a sample of Brazilian older adults. A study was conducted with 263 elderly people in the area of coverage of a family health unit located in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. The Subjective Happiness Scale was used to measure happiness, the final score of which determined one of three outcomes: not happy, intermediate, and happy. Disability, sociodemographic characteristics, and psychological, cognitive, and physical factors were considered for the multinomial logistic regression analysis. Statistically significant differences were found among the three groups regarding satisfaction with life, disability, social phobia, anxiety, depression, and frailty (p≤0.05). In the multinomial regression analysis, being "not happy" was significantly associated with satisfaction with life (RRR: 0.53), depression (RRR: 1.46), social phobia (RRR: 1.24), and age (RRR: 1.06). The present findings indicate that psychological factors and age influence the levels of happiness in older adults living in the community. Furthermore, better screening, diagnosis, and treatment of mental health disorders could increase the feeling of happiness among older adults. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. Factors influencing farmers’ choices of adaptation to climate change in Ekiti State, Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oluwakemi Adeola Obayelu

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Climate change poses a great threat to human security through erratic rainfall patterns and decreasing crop yields, contributing to increased hunger. The perceptions of the indigenous people about climate change and their responses to climate change have significant roles to play in addressing climate change. Therefore a critical study on farmers’ choices of adaptation to is critical for ensuring food security poverty alleviation. A multi-stage random sampling technique was used to select 156 households in Ekiti state while descriptive statistics and multinomial logit were used to analyze the data obtained from the households. The results showed that the most widely used adaptation method by the farmers were soil and water conservation measures (67 percent. The multinomial logit analysis revealed that the factors explaining farmer’s choices of climate change adaptation include age of the farmers, gender of the household head, years of education, years of farming experience, household size, farmers information on climate change, farmers access to credit, farm income, non-farm income, livestock ownership and extension contact.

  11. Impact of leukoaraiosis on parenchymal hemorrhage in elderly patients treated with thrombolysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nighoghossian, Norbert; Cho, Tae-Hee; Cottaz, Vincent; Mechtouff, Laura; Derex, Laurent [Universite Lyon 1, Department of Stroke, Neurological Hospital, Lyon (France); Abbas, Fatima; Schott, Anne Marie [Hospices Civils de Lyon, Pole Information Medicale Evaluation Recherche, Lyon (France); Geraldo, Ana Filipa; Janecek, Elie; Hermier, Marc; Tisserand, Louis Guy; Amelie, Roxana; Chamard, Leila; Berthezene, Yves [Universite Lyon 1, Department of Neuroradiology, Neurological Hospital, Bron, Lyon (France); Bischoff, Magali; El Khoury, Carlos [RESUVAL Stroke Network, Lyon (France)

    2016-10-15

    Severity of vascular damage of white matter may predict hemorrhagic transformation (HT). We assess the relationship between leukoaraiosis (LA) severity and the type of hemorrhagic transformation in elderly patients treated with thrombolysis. We retrospectively analyzed the clinical data and pretreatment magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) of 180 consecutive ischemic stroke patients aged over 75 years. LA severity was graded according to the Fazekas scale, and acute diffusion-weighted-imaging (DWI) lesion volumes were semi-automatically outlined. Predictors of hemorrhagic infarction (HI) and parenchymal hemorrhage (PH) were identified using logistic regression analysis and exact multinomial logistic analysis. HT occurred in 31 patients (17 %). Baseline National Institute of Health Stroke Score (NIHSS; p = 0.008), severe LA (p = 0.02), and diffusion lesion volume (p = 0.02) were predictors of HT in univariable logistic regression. Adjusted to lesion volume and baseline NIHSS score, exact multinomial logistic analysis showed that severe LA was the only independent predictor of parenchymal hemorrhage (p = 0.03). In elderly patients, LA severity better predicts parenchymal hemorrhage than infarct size. (orig.)

  12. The design and analysis of salmonid tagging studies in the Columbia basin. Volume 8: A new model for estimating survival probabilities and residualization from a release-recapture study of fall chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tschawytscha) smolts in the Snake River

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lowther, A.B.; Skalski, J.

    1997-09-01

    Standard release-recapture analysis using Cormack-Jolly-Seber (CJS) models to estimate survival probabilities between hydroelectric facilities for Snake river fall chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tschawytscha) ignore the possibility of individual fish residualizing and completing their migration in the year following tagging. These models do not utilize available capture history data from this second year and, thus, produce negatively biased estimates of survival probabilities. A new multinomial likelihood model was developed that results in biologically relevant, unbiased estimates of survival probabilities using the full two years of capture history data. This model was applied to 1995 Snake River fall chinook hatchery releases to estimate the true survival probability from one of three upstream release points (Asotin, Billy Creek, and Pittsburgh Landing) to Lower Granite Dam. In the data analyzed here, residualization is not a common physiological response and thus the use of CJS models did not result in appreciably different results than the true survival probability obtained using the new multinomial likelihood model

  13. Public funding of pharmaceuticals in The Netherlands: investigating the effect of evidence, process and context on CVZ decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cerri, Karin H; Knapp, Martin; Fernandez, Jose-Luis

    2014-09-01

    The College Voor Zorgverzekeringen (CVZ) provides guidance to the Dutch healthcare system on funding and use of new pharmaceutical technologies. This study examined the impact of evidence, process and context factors on CVZ decisions in 2004-2009. A data set of CVZ decisions pertaining to pharmaceutical technologies was created, including 29 variables extracted from published information. A three-category outcome variable was used, defined as the decision to 'recommend', 'restrict' or 'not recommend' a technology. Technologies included in list 1A/1B or on the expensive drug list were considered recommended; those included in list 2 or for which patient co-payment is required were considered restricted; technologies not included on any reimbursement list were classified as 'not recommended'. Using multinomial logistic regression, the relative contribution of explanatory variables on CVZ decisions was assessed. In all, 244 technology appraisals (256 technologies) were analysed, with 51%, of technologies recommended, 33% restricted and 16% not recommended by CVZ for funding. The multinomial model showed significant associations (p ≤ 0.10) between CVZ outcome and several variables, including: (1) use of an active comparator and demonstration of statistical superiority of the primary endpoint in clinical trials, (2) pharmaceutical budget impact associated with introduction of the technology, (3) therapeutic indication and (4) prevalence of the target population. Results confirm the value of a comprehensive and multivariate approach to understanding CVZ decision-making.

  14. Occupational segregation, selection effects and gender wage differences: evidence from urban Colombia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jairo Guillermo Isaza Castro

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper assesses the effects of occupational segregation on the gender wage gap in urban Colombia between 1986 and 2000. The empirical methodology involves a two step procedure where by the occupational distributions ofworkers by gender aremodelled using a multinomial logit model in the first stage. In the second stage, the multinomial logit estimates are used not only to derive a counterfactual occupational distribution of women in the absence of workplace discrimination but also to correct for selectivity bias in thewage equations for each occupational category using the procedure suggested by Lee (1983. Besides the explained and unexplained components in conventional decompositions of the gender wage gap, this methodology differentiates between the justified and unjustified effects of the gender allocation ofworkers across occupational categories. The results for urban Colombia indicate that controlling for selectivity bias at the occupational category level is found to be relevant in all years reviewed in this study. They also suggest that a changing composition of the female labour supply in terms of un observables (i.e., ability and motivation is playing a role in the dramatic reduction of the observed wage gap.

  15. Towards dropout training for convolutional neural networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Haibing; Gu, Xiaodong

    2015-11-01

    Recently, dropout has seen increasing use in deep learning. For deep convolutional neural networks, dropout is known to work well in fully-connected layers. However, its effect in convolutional and pooling layers is still not clear. This paper demonstrates that max-pooling dropout is equivalent to randomly picking activation based on a multinomial distribution at training time. In light of this insight, we advocate employing our proposed probabilistic weighted pooling, instead of commonly used max-pooling, to act as model averaging at test time. Empirical evidence validates the superiority of probabilistic weighted pooling. We also empirically show that the effect of convolutional dropout is not trivial, despite the dramatically reduced possibility of over-fitting due to the convolutional architecture. Elaborately designing dropout training simultaneously in max-pooling and fully-connected layers, we achieve state-of-the-art performance on MNIST, and very competitive results on CIFAR-10 and CIFAR-100, relative to other approaches without data augmentation. Finally, we compare max-pooling dropout and stochastic pooling, both of which introduce stochasticity based on multinomial distributions at pooling stage. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Contraceptive awareness among men in Bangladesh.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Islam, Mohammad Amirul; Padmadas, Sabu S; Smith, Peter W F

    2006-04-01

    A considerable gap exists between contraceptive awareness and use. Traditional approaches to measuring awareness are inadequate to properly understand the linkages between awareness and use. The objective of this study was to examine the degree of men's modern contraceptive awareness in Bangladesh and the associated determinants and further testing of a hypothesis that current contraceptive use confers a high degree of method awareness. This study used the couple data set from the Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey (1999-2000). A two-level, multinomial logistic regression was used with the degree of contraceptive awareness as the dependent variable. The degree of awareness was measured by the reported number of modern contraceptive methods known among men aged 15-59 years. Men's responses on method awareness were classified according to those reported spontaneously and probed. Nearly 100% of the study participants reported having heard of at least one method and about half reported awareness of at least eight different methods of contraception. Multinomial logistic regression analyses showed that older and educated men were more likely to have reported a high degree of awareness. The findings confirmed our hypothesis that current contraceptive use is likely to confer a high degree of modern method awareness among men (pknowledge of contraceptive methods to improve the uptake of especially male-based modern methods.

  17. Physical victimization, gender identity and suicide risk among transgender men and women

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gia Elise Barboza, PhD

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available We investigated whether being attacked physically due to one's gender identity or expression was associated with suicide risk among trans men and women living in Virginia. The sample consisted of 350 transgender men and women who participated in the Virginia Transgender Health Initiative Survey (THIS. Multivariate multinomial logistic regression was used to explore the competing outcomes associated with suicidal risk. Thirty-seven percent of trans men and women experienced at least one physical attack since the age of 13. On average, individuals experienced 3.97 (SD = 2.86 physical attacks; among these about half were attributed to one's gender identity or expression (mean = 2.08, SD = 1.96. In the multivariate multinomial regression, compared to those with no risk, being physically attacked increased the odds of both attempting and contemplating suicide regardless of gender attribution. Nevertheless, the relative impact of physical victimization on suicidal behavior was higher among those who were targeted on the basis of their gender identity or expression. Finally, no significant association was found between multiple measures of institutional discrimination and suicide risk once discriminatory and non-discriminatory physical victimization was taken into account. Trans men and women experience high levels of physical abuse and face multiple forms of discrimination. They are also at an increased risk for suicidal tendencies. Interventions that help transindividuals cope with discrimination and physical victimization simultaneously may be more effective in saving lives.

  18. Insights from computational modeling in inflammation and acute rejection in limb transplantation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dolores Wolfram

    Full Text Available Acute skin rejection in vascularized composite allotransplantation (VCA is the major obstacle for wider adoption in clinical practice. This study utilized computational modeling to identify biomarkers for diagnosis and targets for treatment of skin rejection. Protein levels of 14 inflammatory mediators in skin and muscle biopsies from syngeneic grafts [n = 10], allogeneic transplants without immunosuppression [n = 10] and allografts treated with tacrolimus [n = 10] were assessed by multiplexed analysis technology. Hierarchical Clustering Analysis, Principal Component Analysis, Random Forest Classification and Multinomial Logistic Regression models were used to segregate experimental groups. Based on Random Forest Classification, Multinomial Logistic Regression and Hierarchical Clustering Analysis models, IL-4, TNF-α and IL-12p70 were the best predictors of skin rejection and identified rejection well in advance of histopathological alterations. TNF-α and IL-12p70 were the best predictors of muscle rejection and also preceded histopathological alterations. Principal Component Analysis identified IL-1α, IL-18, IL-1β, and IL-4 as principal drivers of transplant rejection. Thus, inflammatory patterns associated with rejection are specific for the individual tissue and may be superior for early detection and targeted treatment of rejection.

  19. Minimal intervention dentistry for early childhood caries and child dental anxiety: a randomized controlled trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arrow, P; Klobas, E

    2017-06-01

    To compare changes in child dental anxiety after treatment for early childhood caries (ECC) using two treatment approaches. Children with ECC were randomized to test (atraumatic restorative treatment (ART)-based approach) or control (standard care approach) groups. Children aged 3 years or older completed a dental anxiety scale at baseline and follow up. Changes in child dental anxiety from baseline to follow up were tested using the chi-squared statistic, Wilcoxon rank sum test, McNemar's test and multinomial logistic regression. Two hundred and fifty-four children were randomized (N = 127 test, N = 127 control). At baseline, 193 children completed the dental anxiety scale, 211 at follow up and 170 completed the scale on both occasions. Children who were anxious at baseline (11%) were no longer anxious at follow up, and 11% non-anxious children became anxious. Multinomial logistic regression found each increment in the number of visits increased the odds of worsening dental anxiety (odds ratio (OR), 2.2; P < 0.05), whereas each increment in the number of treatments lowered the odds of worsening anxiety (OR, 0.50; P = 0.05). The ART-based approach to managing ECC resulted in similar levels of dental anxiety to the standard treatment approach and provides a valuable alternative approach to the management of ECC in a primary dental care setting. © 2016 Australian Dental Association.

  20. DETERMINANTS OF CHOICE OF CROP VARIETY AS CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION OPTION IN ARID REGIONS OF ZIMBABWE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James Zivanomoyo

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Impacts of climate change in developing countries remain poorly understood because few studies have successfully analyses the overall impact of climate on developing country economies. Agricultural growth is widely viewed as an effective and most important way to reduce poverty in developing countries which are hardly hit by the adverse effects of climate change (Datt and Ravallion, 1996. Despite this knowledge the main challenge is how to increase agricultural productivity to improve household welfare and increase food security in these changing and challenging climatic conditions. This study used the multinomial logit model to analyse the determinants of farmers' choice of crop variety in the face of climate change. The estimation of the multinomial logit was done by using the sorghum variety options as dependent variable and where farmers grow other crop different from sorghum as the reference state. Results show that the key determinants of choosing crop variety are; the price of existing crop variety, level of education of farmers, the size of the farms, government policies and incentives and credit availability.

  1. Physical victimization, gender identity and suicide risk among transgender men and women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barboza, Gia Elise; Dominguez, Silvia; Chance, Elena

    2016-12-01

    We investigated whether being attacked physically due to one's gender identity or expression was associated with suicide risk among trans men and women living in Virginia. The sample consisted of 350 transgender men and women who participated in the Virginia Transgender Health Initiative Survey (THIS). Multivariate multinomial logistic regression was used to explore the competing outcomes associated with suicidal risk. Thirty-seven percent of trans men and women experienced at least one physical attack since the age of 13. On average, individuals experienced 3.97 (SD = 2.86) physical attacks; among these about half were attributed to one's gender identity or expression (mean = 2.08, SD = 1.96). In the multivariate multinomial regression, compared to those with no risk, being physically attacked increased the odds of both attempting and contemplating suicide regardless of gender attribution. Nevertheless, the relative impact of physical victimization on suicidal behavior was higher among those who were targeted on the basis of their gender identity or expression. Finally, no significant association was found between multiple measures of institutional discrimination and suicide risk once discriminatory and non-discriminatory physical victimization was taken into account. Trans men and women experience high levels of physical abuse and face multiple forms of discrimination. They are also at an increased risk for suicidal tendencies. Interventions that help transindividuals cope with discrimination and physical victimization simultaneously may be more effective in saving lives.

  2. The molecular epidemiology of HIV-1 in the Comunidad Valenciana (Spain): analysis of transmission clusters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patiño-Galindo, Juan Ángel; Torres-Puente, Manoli; Bracho, María Alma; Alastrué, Ignacio; Juan, Amparo; Navarro, David; Galindo, María José; Ocete, Dolores; Ortega, Enrique; Gimeno, Concepción; Belda, Josefina; Domínguez, Victoria; Moreno, Rosario; González-Candelas, Fernando

    2017-09-14

    HIV infections are still a very serious concern for public heath worldwide. We have applied molecular evolution methods to study the HIV-1 epidemics in the Comunidad Valenciana (CV, Spain) from a public health surveillance perspective. For this, we analysed 1804 HIV-1 sequences comprising protease and reverse transcriptase (PR/RT) coding regions, sampled between 2004 and 2014. These sequences were subtyped and subjected to phylogenetic analyses in order to detect transmission clusters. In addition, univariate and multinomial comparisons were performed to detect epidemiological differences between HIV-1 subtypes, and risk groups. The HIV epidemic in the CV is dominated by subtype B infections among local men who have sex with men (MSM). 270 transmission clusters were identified (>57% of the dataset), 12 of which included ≥10 patients; 11 of subtype B (9 affecting MSMs) and one (n = 21) of CRF14, affecting predominately intravenous drug users (IDUs). Dated phylogenies revealed these large clusters to have originated from the mid-80s to the early 00 s. Subtype B is more likely to form transmission clusters than non-B variants and MSMs to cluster than other risk groups. Multinomial analyses revealed an association between non-B variants, which are not established in the local population yet, and different foreign groups.

  3. Who Works Among Older Black and White, Well-Functioning Adults in the Health, Aging, and Body Composition Study?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ronica N. Rooks PhD

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Objective: The aim of this study is to examine social, economic, and health factors related to paid work in well-functioning older adults and if and how these factors vary by race. Method: We used sex-stratified logistic and multinomial logistic regression to examine cross-sectional data in the Health, Aging, and Body Composition cohort study. The sample included 3,075 community-dwelling Black (42% and White adults aged 70 to 79 at baseline. Results: Multinomial logistic regression analyses show Black men were more likely to work full-time, and Black women were more likely to work part-time. Men with ≥US$50,000 family income were more likely to work full-time. Men with better physical functioning were more likely to work full- and part-time. Women with ≥US$50,000 family income and fewer chronic diseases were more likely to work full-time. Women who were overweight and had fewer chronic diseases were more likely to work part-time. Discussion: Results suggest that well-functioning, older Black adults were more likely to work than their White counterparts, and working relates to better health and higher income, providing support for a productive or successful aging perspective.

  4. Deslocamento para o trabalho e fatores associados em industriários do sul do Brasil Desplazamiento para el trabajo y factores asociados en industriales del sur de Brasil Commuting to and from work and factors associated among industrial workers from Southern Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shana Ginar da Silva

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Estudo transversal visando estimar a prevalência das formas de deslocamento para o trabalho e identificar fatores associados em trabalhadores do Estado do Rio Grande do Sul. Um total de 2.265 trabalhadores responderam questionário sobre a forma de deslocamento utilizado para ir ao trabalho: caminhada/bicicleta, ônibus ou de carro/moto. Para estimar a associação entre o desfecho e variáveis sociodemográficas, ocupacionais e comportamental foi utilizada a regressão logística multinomial. O principal meio de deslocamento para o trabalho foi o ônibus (45,7%. Trabalhadores com maior condição socioeconômica tiveram maior probabilidade de deslocamento passivo.Estudio transversal buscando estimar la prevalencia de las formas de desplazamiento para el trabajo e identificar factores asociados en trabajadores del Estado do Rio Grande do Sul (sur de Brasil. Un total de 2.265 trabajadores respondieron cuestionario sobre la forma de desplazamiento utilizado para ir al trabajo: caminata/bicicleta, autobús o en carro/moto. Para estimar la asociación entre el resultado y variables sociodemográficas, ocupacionales y conductual se utilizó la regresión logística multinomial. El principal medio de desplazamiento para el trabajo fue el autobús (45,7%. Trabajadores con mayor condición socioeconómica tuvieron mayor probabilidad de desplazarse de forma pasiva.Cross-sectional study that aimed to estimate the prevalence of forms of commuting to and from work and to identify factors associated among industrial workers in the State of Rio Grande do Sul, southern Brazil. A total of 2,265 workers completed a questionnaire on the forms of commuting to and from work (walking/biking, bus or car/motorcycle. Multinomial logistic regression was used to estimate the association between the outcome and sociodemographic, occupational and behavioral variables. The main form of commuting to and from work was by bus (45.7%. Workers with higher socioeconomic

  5. Dietary Fiber Intake Is Inversely Associated with Periodontal Disease among US Adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nielsen, Samara Joy; Trak-Fellermeier, Maria Angelica; Joshipura, Kaumudi; Dye, Bruce A

    2016-12-01

    Approximately 47% of adults in the United States have periodontal disease. Dietary guidelines recommend a diet providing adequate fiber. Healthier dietary habits, particularly an increased fiber intake, may contribute to periodontal disease prevention. Our objective was to evaluate the relation of dietary fiber intake and its sources with periodontal disease in the US adult population (≥30 y of age). Data from 6052 adults participating in NHANES 2009-2012 were used. Periodontal disease was defined (according to the CDC/American Academy of Periodontology) as severe, moderate, mild, and none. Intake was assessed by 24-h dietary recalls. The relation between periodontal disease and dietary fiber, whole-grain, and fruit and vegetable intakes were evaluated by using multivariate models, adjusting for sociodemographic characteristics and dentition status. In the multivariate logistic model, the lowest quartile of dietary fiber was associated with moderate-severe periodontitis (compared with mild-none) compared with the highest dietary fiber intake quartile (OR: 1.30; 95% CI: 1.00, 1.69). In the multivariate multinomial logistic model, intake in the lowest quartile of dietary fiber was associated with higher severity of periodontitis than dietary fiber intake in the highest quartile (OR: 1.27; 95% CI: 1.00, 1.62). In the adjusted logistic model, whole-grain intake was not associated with moderate-severe periodontitis. However, in the adjusted multinomial logistic model, adults consuming whole grains in the lowest quartile were more likely to have more severe periodontal disease than were adults consuming whole grains in the highest quartile (OR: 1.32; 95% CI: 1.08, 1.62). In fully adjusted logistic and multinomial logistic models, fruit and vegetable intake was not significantly associated with periodontitis. We found an inverse relation between dietary fiber intake and periodontal disease among US adults ≥30 y old. Periodontal disease was associated with low whole

  6. Spatial distribution of the risk of dengue fever in southeast Brazil, 2006-2007

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nucci Luciana B

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Many factors have been associated with circulation of the dengue fever virus and vector, although the dynamics of transmission are not yet fully understood. The aim of this work is to estimate the spatial distribution of the risk of dengue fever in an area of continuous dengue occurrence. Methods This is a spatial population-based case-control study that analyzed 538 cases and 727 controls in one district of the municipality of Campinas, São Paulo, Brazil, from 2006-2007, considering socio-demographic, ecological, case severity, and household infestation variables. Information was collected by in-home interviews and inspection of living conditions in and around the homes studied. Cases were classified as mild or severe according to clinical data, and they were compared with controls through a multinomial logistic model. A generalized additive model was used in order to include space in a non-parametric fashion with cubic smoothing splines. Results Variables associated with increased incidence of all dengue cases in the multiple binomial regression model were: higher larval density (odds ratio (OR = 2.3 (95%CI: 2.0-2.7, reports of mosquito bites during the day (OR = 1.8 (95%CI: 1.4-2.4, the practice of water storage at home (OR = 2.5 (95%CI: 1.4, 4.3, low frequency of garbage collection (OR = 2.6 (95%CI: 1.6-4.5 and lack of basic sanitation (OR = 2.9 (95%CI: 1.8-4.9. Staying at home during the day was protective against the disease (OR = 0.5 (95%CI: 0.3-0.6. When cases were analyzed by categories (mild and severe in the multinomial model, age and number of breeding sites more than 10 were significant only for the occurrence of severe cases (OR = 0.97, (95%CI: 0.96-0.99 and OR = 2.1 (95%CI: 1.2-3.5, respectively. Spatial distribution of risks of mild and severe dengue fever differed from each other in the 2006/2007 epidemic, in the study area. Conclusions Age and presence of more than 10 breeding sites were significant only

  7. Social skills as precursors of cannabis use in young adolescents: a TRAILS study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffith-Lendering, Merel F H; Huijbregts, Stephan C J; Huizink, Anja C; Ormel, Hans; Verhulst, Frank C; Vollebergh, Wilma A M; Swaab, Hanna

    2011-01-01

    Social skills (cooperation, assertion, and self-control) were assessed by teachers for a longitudinal cohort of (pre)adolescents, with measurements at average ages 11.1 (baseline) and 16.3 years (follow-up). Prospective associations with participants' self-reported use of cannabis, (age of) onset of cannabis use, and frequency of use at follow-up were examined using multinomial logistic regression analyses. Teacher-reported social skills predicted different aspects of cannabis use independent of better known factors such as presence of externalizing behavior and use of other substances. The direction of associations depended on the type of social skill. Good cooperation skills during early adolescence were associated with a reduced risk of lifetime cannabis use and a reduced risk of using cannabis on a regular basis. On the other hand, assertion at age 11 increased the risk of lifetime cannabis use and of using cannabis on an experimental basis.

  8. The development of episodic memory: items, contexts, and relations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yim, Hyungwook; Dennis, Simon J; Sloutsky, Vladimir M

    2013-11-01

    Episodic memory involves the formation of relational structures that bind information about the stimuli people experience to the contexts in which they experience them. The ability to form and retain such structures may be at the core of the development of episodic memory. In the first experiment reported here, 4- and 7-year-olds were presented with paired-associate learning tasks requiring memory structures of different complexity. A multinomial-processing tree model was applied to estimate the use of different structures in the two age groups. The use of two-way list-context-to-target structures and three-way structures was found to increase between the ages of 4 and 7. Experiment 2 demonstrated that the ability to form increasingly complex relational memory structures develops between the ages of 4 and 7 years and that this development extends well into adulthood. These results have important implications for theories of memory development.

  9. A fuzzy development for attribute control chart with Monte Carlo simulation method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Hadi Madadi

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the case study of fuzzy statistical process control which has been simulated for variable and discontinuous production within a particular time frame in a key manufacturing work-shop. In order to reduce waste production and increase productivity, dimensional inspection from raw product is categorized into three groups: product of type A, product of type B, and discard. In first part, the appearance characteristics of product is defined as fuzzy membership function as the input of the system in order to allocate the output obtained from fuzzy inference of product to one of the three quality levels. Afterwards, each quality level is assigned to its own group by means of Monte Carlo simulation techniques. In the second part, with fuzzy development of a multinomial p chart, the production process is illustrated as a control chart within the particular period of time.

  10. Bodies in Contempt: Gender, Class and Disability Intersections in Workplace Discrimination Claims

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jenny Dick-Mosher

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available This article draws on theories of gendered organizations to examine discrimination against people with disabilities in the workplace. A sample of 200 cases that document disability discrimination lawsuits was drawn from the Westlaw legal database. Each case was coded for gender, job, disability and discrimination type and analyzed using multinomial logistic models. Of those 200 cases, 34 were selected for in depth qualitative analysis. This study finds that disability type, job type, and gender do have an influence on the type of discrimination someone is likely to experience. In addition, the qualitative analysis finds that the social processes of discrimination differ based on job type and gender pointing to intersections of disability and class as well as gender and disability.

  11. Gambling, violent behaviour and attitudes towards violence among adolescent gamblers in Finland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Räsänen Tiina

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available AIMS - The purpose of this population-based study was to explore the relationship between gambling and violent behaviour and attitudes towards violence among 14- and 16-year-old adolescents. DESIGN - A national survey was conducted in Finland in 2011. The main measures in our study were gambling frequency and number of reported gambling-related harms. Their associations with violent behaviours and attitudes towards violence were studied using multinomial logistic regression and negative binomial regression. RESULTS - 47.1% of adolescents had gambled during the past six months and 13.2% of them had experienced gambling-related harms. Both gambling frequency and the number of gambling-related harms were linked to violent behaviour as well as to positive attitudes towards violence. Adolescents who engaged in gambling on a daily basis and/ or experienced gambling harms had the highest risk. CONCLUSIONS - Health promotion efforts among gamblers should take into account their increased risk for violent behaviour.

  12. Performance of peaky template matching under additive white Gaussian noise and uniform quantization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horvath, Matthew S.; Rigling, Brian D.

    2015-05-01

    Peaky template matching (PTM) is a special case of a general algorithm known as multinomial pattern matching originally developed for automatic target recognition of synthetic aperture radar data. The algorithm is a model- based approach that first quantizes pixel values into Nq = 2 discrete values yielding generative Beta-Bernoulli models as class-conditional templates. Here, we consider the case of classification of target chips in AWGN and develop approximations to image-to-template classification performance as a function of the noise power. We focus specifically on the case of a uniform quantization" scheme, where a fixed number of the largest pixels are quantized high as opposed to using a fixed threshold. This quantization method reduces sensitivity to the scaling of pixel intensities and quantization in general reduces sensitivity to various nuisance parameters difficult to account for a priori. Our performance expressions are verified using forward-looking infrared imagery from the Army Research Laboratory Comanche dataset.

  13. Aging, subjective experience, and cognitive control: dramatic false remembering by older adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacoby, Larry L; Bishara, Anthony J; Hessels, Sandra; Toth, Jeffrey P

    2005-05-01

    Recent research suggests that older adults are more susceptible to interference effects than are young adults; however, that research has failed to equate differences in original learning. In 4 experiments, the authors show that older adults are more susceptible to interference effects produced by a misleading prime. Even when original learning was equated, older adults were 10 times as likely to falsely remember misleading information and were much less likely to increase their accuracy by opting not to answer under conditions of free responding. The results are well described by a multinomial model that postulates multiple modes of cognitive control. According to that model, older adults are likely to be captured by misleading information, a form of goal neglect or deficit in inhibitory functions. Copyright 2005 APA, all rights reserved.

  14. A constrained rasch model of trace redintegration in serial recall.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roodenrys, Steven; Miller, Leonie M

    2008-04-01

    The notion that verbal short-term memory tasks, such as serial recall, make use of information in long-term as well as in short-term memory is instantiated in many models of these tasks. Such models incorporate a process in which degraded traces retrieved from a short-term store are reconstructed, or redintegrated (Schweickert, 1993), through the use of information in long-term memory. This article presents a conceptual and mathematical model of this process based on a class of item-response theory models. It is demonstrated that this model provides a better fit to three sets of data than does the multinomial processing tree model of redintegration (Schweickert, 1993) and that a number of conceptual accounts of serial recall can be related to the parameters of the model.

  15. Discriminant analysis of plasma fusion data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kardaun, O.J.W.F.; Kardaun, J.W.P.F.; Itoh, S.; Itoh, K.

    1992-06-01

    Several discriminant analysis methods has been applied and compared to predict the type of ELM's in H-mode discharges: (a) quadratic discriminant analysis (linear discriminant analysis being a special case), (b) discrimination by non-parametric (kernel-) density estimates, and (c) discrimination by a product multinomial model on a discretised scale. Practical evaluation was performed using SAS in the first two cases, and INDEP, a standard FORTRAN program, initially developed for medical applications, in the last case. We give here a flavour of the approach and its results. In summary, discriminant analysis can be used as a useful descriptive method of specifying regions where particular types of plasma discharges can be produced. Parametric methods have the advantage of a rather compact mathematical formulation . Pertinent graphical representations are useful to make the theory and the results more palatable to the experimental physicists. (J.P.N.)

  16. Bayesian inference data evaluation and decisions

    CERN Document Server

    Harney, Hanns Ludwig

    2016-01-01

    This new edition offers a comprehensive introduction to the analysis of data using Bayes rule. It generalizes Gaussian error intervals to situations in which the data follow distributions other than Gaussian. This is particularly useful when the observed parameter is barely above the background or the histogram of multiparametric data contains many empty bins, so that the determination of the validity of a theory cannot be based on the chi-squared-criterion. In addition to the solutions of practical problems, this approach provides an epistemic insight: the logic of quantum mechanics is obtained as the logic of unbiased inference from counting data. New sections feature factorizing parameters, commuting parameters, observables in quantum mechanics, the art of fitting with coherent and with incoherent alternatives and fitting with multinomial distribution. Additional problems and examples help deepen the knowledge. Requiring no knowledge of quantum mechanics, the book is written on introductory level, with man...

  17. Parents' socioeconomic factors related to high antibiotic prescribing in primary health care among children aged 0-6 years in the Capital Region of Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Jette Nygaard; Bjerrum, Lars; Boel, Jonas

    2016-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To investigate the distribution of antibiotic prescriptions in primary health care among children aged 0-6 years and its association with socioeconomic factors. DESIGN: A cross-sectional study describing antibiotic prescriptions and socioeconomic factors, using different population......-based registers from Statistics Denmark. SETTING: Antibiotic prescriptions in 2012 from primary health care in the Capital Region of Denmark. SUBJECTS: The population of children aged 0-6 years (n = 139,398) in the Capital Region of Denmark. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: High use of antibiotics identified by number...... of antibiotic prescriptions (≥ 3 prescriptions per year) and defined daily doses (DDD). A multinomial logistic regression analysis estimating the association between high antibiotic use and parents' education, employment status, income, child's sex, and ethnic background. RESULTS: Ten percent of children...

  18. Promoting Informal and Professional Help-Seeking for Adolescent Dating Violence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hedge, Jasmine M; Hudson-Flege, Matthew D; McDonell, James R

    2017-05-01

    The present study examined factors that differentiate adolescents with varied intentions of informal and professional help-seeking for dating violence. Help-seeking intentions among 518 ethnically diverse adolescents from a rural, southern county who participated in a longitudinal study of teen dating violence were categorized into three groups: adolescents unlikely to seek any help, adolescents likely to seek only informal help, and adolescents likely to seek informal and professional help. Multinomial logistic regression found that gender, family functioning, problem-solving competency, dating status, having an adult to talk to about a dating relationship, and acceptability of family violence significantly predicted membership in the help-seeking groups. Implications for promoting informal and professional help-seeking and recommendations for future research are discussed.

  19. Initial Career Paths and Inequality in Uruguay. An Analysis Based on the PISA-L Longitudinal Study 2003-2012

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tabaré Fernández

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This article aims to identify and explain the initial career paths of young Uruguayans. It emphasizes three elements: labour protection, timing and qualifications in the context of the new uncertainty generated by globalization and the role of institutional filters provided by the employment and education systems. We use PISA 2003 -2012 longitudinal project data. An optimal solution of seven clusters reveals a medium level of heterogeneity in the transition. The multinomial regression on social class, gender and human capital reports modest but significant marginal effects for the last two. It is evident the reproduction of gender inequality in this "dense period", particularly affecting women with children. Human capital has also a clear protective effect towards vulnerable paths, but does not generate advantages to follow paths of rising job skills.

  20. Associations Between Social Vulnerabilities and Dietary Patterns in European Children

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Iguacel, Isabel; Fernandez-Alvira, Juan M.; Bammann, Karin

    2016-01-01

    -up by applying the K-means clustering algorithm based on a higher frequency of consumption of snacks and fast food (processed), sweet foods and drinks (sweet), and fruits and vegetables (healthy). Vulnerable groups were defined at baseline as follows: children whose parents lacked a social network, children from...... single-parent families, children of migrant origin and children with unemployed parents. Multinomial mixed models were used to assess the associations between social vulnerabilities and children’s dietary patterns at baseline and follow-up. Children whose parents lacked a social network (OR 1·31; 99 % CI......Socio-economic inequalities in childhood can determine dietary patterns, and therefore future health. This study aimed to explore associations between social vulnerabilities and dietary patterns assessed at two time points, and to investigate the association between accumulation of vulnerabilities...

  1. Characterization of annual disease progression of multiple sclerosis patients: A population-based study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Freilich, Jonatan; Manouchehrinia, Ali; Trusheim, Mark

    2017-01-01

    Previous research characterizing factors influencing multiple sclerosis (MS) disease progression has typically been based on time to disease milestones (Kaplan-Meier, Cox hazard regression, etc.). A limitation of these methods is the handling of the often large groups of patients not reaching...... the milestone. To characterize clinical factors influencing MS disease progression as annual transitions from each Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS). The annual progression of 11,964 patients from the Swedish MS Registry was analysed with 10 multinomial logistic regressions, that is, one for transition...... from each full EDSS with explanatory variables age, sex, age at onset, time in current EDSS, highest prior EDSS, MS course and treatment. All factors (except sex) investigated had statistically significant impacts on transitions from at least one EDSS. However, significance and size of the effect...

  2. The relationship between organizational culture and performance in acute hospitals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacobs, Rowena; Mannion, Russell; Davies, Huw T O; Harrison, Stephen; Konteh, Fred; Walshe, Kieran

    2013-01-01

    This paper examines the relationship between senior management team culture and organizational performance in English acute hospitals (NHS Trusts) over three time periods between 2001/2002 and 2007/2008. We use a validated culture rating instrument, the Competing Values Framework, to measure senior management team culture. Organizational performance is assessed using a wide range of routinely collected indicators. We examine the associations between organizational culture and performance using ordered probit and multinomial logit models. We find that organizational culture varies across hospitals and over time, and this variation is at least in part associated in consistent and predictable ways with a variety of organizational characteristics and routine measures of performance. Moreover, hospitals are moving towards more competitive culture archetypes which mirror the current policy context, though with a stronger blend of cultures. The study provides evidence for a relationship between culture and performance in hospital settings. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Colorectal cancer outcomes and treatment patterns in patients too young for average-risk screening.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdelsattar, Zaid M; Wong, Sandra L; Regenbogen, Scott E; Jomaa, Diana M; Hardiman, Karin M; Hendren, Samantha

    2016-03-15

    Although colorectal cancer (CRC) screening guidelines recommend initiating screening at age 50 years, the percentage of cancer cases in younger patients is increasing. To the authors' knowledge, the national treatment patterns and outcomes of these patients are largely unknown. The current study was a population-based, retrospective cohort study of the nationally representative Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results registry for patients diagnosed with CRC from 1998 through 2011. Patients were categorized as being younger or older than the recommended screening age. Differences with regard to stage of disease at diagnosis, patterns of therapy, and disease-specific survival were compared between age groups using multinomial regression, multiple regression, Cox proportional hazards regression, and Weibull survival analysis. Of 258,024 patients with CRC, 37,847 (15%) were aged Cancer Society.

  4. Should We Leave? Attitudes towards Relocation in Response to Sea Level Rise

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jie Song

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The participation of individuals contributes significantly to the success of sea level rise adaptation. This study therefore addresses what influences people’s likelihood of relocating away from low-lying areas in response to rising sea levels. The analysis was based on a survey conducted in the City of Panama Beach in Florida (USA. Survey items relate to people’s risk perception, hazard experience, threat appraisal, and coping appraisal, whose theoretical background is Protection Motivation Theory. Descriptive and correlation analysis was first performed to highlight critical factors which were then examined by a multinomial Logit model. Results show that sea level rise awareness is the major explanatory variable. Coping appraisal is qualitatively viewed as a strong predictor for action, while threat appraisal is statistically significant in driving relocation intention. These factors should be integrated in current risk communication regarding sea level rise.

  5. The intersectionality of postsecondary pathways: the case of high school students with special education needs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robson, Karen L; Anisef, Paul; Brown, Robert S; Parekh, Gillian

    2014-08-01

    Using data from the Toronto District School Board, we examine the postsecondary pathways of students with special education needs (SEN). We consider both university and college pathways, employing multilevel multinomial logistic regressions, conceptualizing our findings within a life course and intersectionality framework. Our findings reveal that having SEN reduces the likelihood of confirming university, but increases the likelihood of college confirmation. We examine a set of known determinants of postsecondary education (PSE) pathways that were derived from the literature and employ exploratory statistical interactions to examine if the intersection of various traits differentially impacts upon the PSE trajectories of students with SEN. Our findings reveal that parental education, neighborhood wealth, race, and streaming impact on the postsecondary pathways of students with SEN in Toronto.

  6. The levels and patterns of resilience among male street children in Dhaka City.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sayem, Amir M; Kidd, Sean A

    2013-01-01

    Abstract This study was carried out to identify the factors affecting resilience among street children. The study used a convenience sample of 366 male street children aged 14-17 years in Dhaka City, Bangladesh. The levels of resilience among the street children were mostly moderately low-low (54.1%), followed by low (29.0%), and moderately high-high resilience (16.9%). Multinomial logistic regression analyses indicated that the pre-street factors of education, economic constraint in the family, as well as experiencing and witnessing domestic violence were associated with resilience, with associated street characteristics being drug abuse, experiencing and witnessing violence on street, access to prevention services, and political involvement.

  7. Customer satisfaction's metrics in service organizations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pantouvakis, A.; Krystallis, Athanasios

    to customers' overall satisfaction. Methodology/ Approach: The results are based on a questionnaire survey in 9 major Greek Public hospitals answered by 1298 respondents. Dimensions of satisfaction are derived and confirmed with CFA whereas a multinomial logistic regression model provides evidence on its...... predictive ability to overall satisfaction. Finally, the relationship between the derived factors and socio-demographic characteristics is also examined. Findings: On the basis of the results presented qualitative and empirical evidence is provided that customer satisfaction and service quality are multi......-dimensional constructs and that those "quality" components together with convenience and cost form the overall satisfaction experienced by the customer. Practical Implications: The use of the proposed model allows the identification of important aspects of the quality and satisfaction concepts. It also enables managers...

  8. Social branding to decrease smoking among young adults in bars.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ling, Pamela M; Lee, Youn Ok; Hong, Juliette; Neilands, Torsten B; Jordan, Jeffrey W; Glantz, Stanton A

    2014-04-01

    We evaluated a Social Branding antitobacco intervention for "hipster" young adults that was implemented between 2008 and 2011 in San Diego, California. We conducted repeated cross-sectional surveys of random samples of young adults going to bars at baseline and over a 3-year follow-up. We used multinomial logistic regression to evaluate changes in daily smoking, nondaily smoking, and binge drinking, controlling for demographic characteristics, alcohol use, advertising receptivity, trend sensitivity, and tobacco-related attitudes. During the intervention, current (past 30 day) smoking decreased from 57% (baseline) to 48% (at follow-up 3; P = .002), and daily smoking decreased from 22% to 15% (P Branding campaigns are a promising strategy to decrease smoking in young adult bar patrons.

  9. Menstrual pain and risk of epithelial ovarian cancer

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Babic, Ana; Harris, Holly R; Vitonis, Allison F

    2018-01-01

    to lack of power. We assessed menstrual pain using either direct questions about having experienced menstrual pain, or indirect questions about menstrual pain as indication for use of hormones or medications. We used multivariate logistic regression to calculate the odds ratio (OR) for the association......Menstrual pain, a common gynecological condition, has been associated with increased risk of ovarian cancer in some, but not all studies. Furthermore, potential variations in the association between menstrual pain and ovarian cancer by histologic subtype have not been adequately evaluated due...... between severe menstrual pain and ovarian cancer, adjusting for potential confounders and multinomial logistic regression to calculate ORs for specific histologic subtypes. We observed no association between ovarian cancer and menstrual pain assessed by indirect questions. Among studies using direct...

  10. Predicting levels of Latino depression: acculturation, acculturative stress, and coping.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torres, Lucas

    2010-04-01

    Past research has noted that aspects of living in the United States place Latinos at risk for experiencing psychological problems. However, the specific features of the adaptation process that contribute to depression remain unclear. The purpose of the present study was to investigate the ability of acculturation, acculturative stress, and coping to predict membership into low, medium, and high groups of depression among Latinos. Within a group of 148 Latino adults from the community, a multinomial logistic regression revealed that an Anglo orientation, English competency pressures, and active coping differentiated high from low depression and that a Latino orientation and, to some extent, the pressure to acculturate distinguished medium from low depression. These results highlight a pattern of characteristics that function as risk and protective factors in relation to level of symptom severity. The findings are discussed in terms of implications for Latino mental health, including considerations for intervention and prevention. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved.

  11. Completion of Upper Secondary Education: What Mechanisms Are at Stake?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Munk, Martin D.

    2013-01-01

    also investigate the importance of characteristics other than the traditional variables, such as fathers’ and mothers’ occupations, their education and household income, often applied in studies of educational attainment. I used a recent 1984 cohort database with information about educational...... completion and an informative set of measurements on non-cognitive capacities, parental cultural capital, cultural capital, reading score, several school-related variables, and a rich set of family background variables. Attainment of upper secondary education was analyzed by a multinomial logit model......, showing that characteristics other than the traditional variables all have significant importance. The analysis clearly depicted that the social position and educational levels of both parents remain important in determining whether the child embarks on completing an upper secondary education...

  12. The Great Recession, Life Events, and Mental Health of Older Adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pruchno, Rachel; Heid, Allison R; Wilson-Genderson, Maureen

    2017-03-01

    Historical events and personal experiences have the potential to alter the way people age. Using a life-course model, we examined how the Economic Recession of 2008 and experienced life events affected the mental health of 3,393 older adults in New Jersey. Data collected between 2006 and 2012 revealed a significant increase in mean depressive symptoms. Multinomial logistic regression analyses indicated that people with incident depression were more likely to have lost a job, become a caregiver, experienced a major illness, or have a family member with a major illness than people with no depression. Compared with the incident depression group, those with remitted depression were less likely to report having lost a job or experienced a major illness. Modeling the effects of individual life events and the economic recession on depression enriches understanding about the association between macro socioeconomic events, life events, and the mental health of older adults.

  13. Geometry system used in the General Monte Carlo transport code SPARTAN

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bending, R.C.; Easter, P.G.

    1974-01-01

    The geometry routines used in the general-purpose, three-dimensional particle transport code SPARTAN are described. The code is designed to deal with the very complex geometries encountered in lattice cell and fuel handling calculations, health physics, and shielding problems. Regions of the system being studied may be represented by simple shapes (spheres, cylinders, and so on) or by multinomial surfaces of any order, and many simple shapes may be combined to make up a complex layout. The geometry routines are designed to allow the program to carry out a number of tasks (such as sampling for a random point or tracking a path through several regions) in any order, so that the use of the routines is not restricted to a particular tracking or scoring method. Routines for reading, checking, and printing the data are included. (U.S.)

  14. Quantifying rural livelihood strategies in developing countries using an activity choice approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Øystein Juul; Rayamajhi, Santosh; Uberhuaga de Arratia, Patricia D C

    2013-01-01

    outcomes are compared across strategies and household differences in asset holdings are analyzed using multinomial logit regression. Findings reveal that income diversification is the norm, that a higher degree of specialization does not characterize more remunerative livelihood strategies, that nonfarm......This article uses a quantitative activity choice approach, based on identification of activity variables and application of latent class cluster analysis, to identify five major rural livelihood strategies pursued by households (n= 576) in Bolivia, Nepal, and Mozambique. Income sources and welfare...... income significantly contributes to higher income earnings, that environmental reliance does not vary across strategies, and that small-scale farmers are the largest and poorest livelihood group. Some livelihood strategies are superior to all other strategies in terms of income earned; access to more...

  15. Mode of transport to work, car ownership and CO{sub 2} emissions in Mauritius

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jaunky, V.C. (ETH Zuerich. Centre for Energy Policy and Economics, Zuerich (Switzerland)); Bundhoo, M.N.; Moco, S.Y. (Mauritius (Mauritius))

    2011-05-15

    Fast economical and demographic revolution in the small island developing state of Mauritius over the last decades has led to an unprecedented rise in private vehicle utilization. In this arena, the cognition of ongoing travel practices and their determinants is sine qua non. This paper examines the determinants of mode of transport, rise in car ownership and its related environmental impacts. We employ cross-section micro-data obtained from our household drop-off survey to estimate a multinomial logistic regression model of transport mode choice coupled with an exhaustive ordinary least squares analysis of carbon emissions. Empirical results indicate that factors such as travel time, expenses and time lost in traffic jam coupled with demographic and socio-economic characteristics such as age of individual and household income have profound upshots on transport mode decisions. On the other hand, fuel type, residential distance from work and age of individual displays statistically significant impacts on carbon dioxide emissions. (Author)

  16. Employee well-being, early-retirement intentions, and company performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    von Bonsdorff, Monika E; Vanhala, Sinikka; Seitsamo, Jorma; Janhonen, Minna; Husman, Päivi

    2010-12-01

    To explore the relationship between employee well-being and early-retirement intentions, and the extent to which early-retirement intentions are associated with company performance. This study is based on cross-sectional survey data on the ageing employees of the Finnish metal industry and retail trade, collected in 2007 (company-level n = 129, employee-level n = 1281). It was analyzed using multinomial logistic and multiple regression analysis. Poor work ability, frequent emotional exhaustion, low organizational commitment, and job control were associated with the prevalence of early-retirement intentions among aging employees in both industries. Metal industry employees' early-retirement intentions were associated with weaker company performance measured by the perceptions of the manager. By enhancing well-being, employees may stay at work for longer rather than retiring early. Early-retirement intentions can be counterproductive for companies.

  17. Implicit misattribution of evaluative responses: contingency-unaware evaluative conditioning requires simultaneous stimulus presentations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hütter, Mandy; Sweldens, Steven

    2013-08-01

    Recent research has shown that evaluative conditioning (EC) procedures can change attitudes without participants' awareness of the contingencies between conditioned and unconditioned stimuli (Hütter, Sweldens, Stahl, Unkelbach, & Klauer, 2012). We present a theoretical explanation and boundary condition for the emergence of unaware EC effects based on the implicit misattribution of evaluative responses from unconditioned to conditioned stimuli. We hypothesize that such misattribution is only possible when conditioned and unconditioned stimuli are perceived simultaneously. Therefore we manipulate the simultaneity of the stimulus presentations and apply a process dissociation procedure to distinguish contingency-aware from contingency-unaware EC effects. A multinomial model indicates that with sequential presentations, EC effects do not occur without contingency awareness. However, unaware EC effects do occur with simultaneous presentations. The findings support dual-process theories of learning. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved.

  18. Factors Associated with Alcohol Use Before or During Sex Among Men Who Have Sex with Men in a Large Internet Sample from Asia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Cui; Guadamuz, Thomas E; Lim, Sin How; Koe, Stuart; Wei, Chongyi

    2016-04-01

    We explored factors associated with alcohol use before or during sex among a sample of 10,861 men who have sex with men (MSM) in Asia who were recruited online for the study. Multinomial logistic regression analysis indicated that having sex under the influence of alcohol was associated with having multiple male partners, seeking partners primarily through gay bar/gym/dance party/friends, selling sex and using multiple drugs during the past 6 months, and unprotected anal sex. More efforts are needed to better assess alcohol use and misuse among MSM in Asia and understand contextual influences on alcohol use and HIV-related behaviors in order to implement culturally-specific interventions.

  19. The effects of mandatory health insurance on equity in access to outpatient care in Indonesia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hidayat, Budi; Thabrany, Hasbullah; Dong, Hengjin; Sauerborn, Rainer

    2004-09-01

    This paper examines the effects of mandatory health insurance on access and equity in access to public and private outpatient care in Indonesia. Data from the second round of the 1997 Indonesian Family Life Survey were used. We adopted the concentration index as a measure of equity, and this was calculated from actual data and from predicted probability of outpatient-care use saved from a multinomial logit regression. The study found that a mandatory insurance scheme for civil servants (Askes) had a strongly positive impact on access to public outpatient care, while a mandatory insurance scheme for private employees (Jamsostek) had a positive impact on access to both public and private outpatient care. The greatest effects of Jamsostek were observed amongst poor beneficiaries. A substantial increase in access will be gained by expanding insurance to the whole population. However, neither Askes nor Jamsostek had a positive impact on equity. Policy implications are discussed.

  20. Best-Worst scaling…reflections on presentation, analysis, and lessons learnt from case 3 BWS experiments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Adamsen, Jannie Mia; Rundle-Thiele, Sharyn; Whitty, Jennifer

    2013-01-01

    Surveys based on Likert scales and similar ratings-based scales continue to dominate market research practice despite their many and well-documented limitations. Key issues of concern for Likert scales include over- or under-reporting depending on the context, and variation in responses based......,600 respondents. One case 3 BW experiment investigating consumer preferences for organic apples is featured and evaluated using two approaches. The first analysis treats the data as a case 1 BW experiment to outline the simplicity of case 1 analysis. Case 3 BW analysis involving multinomial logit and latent class...... do believe the BWS method has a significant potential to improve predictability in market research – the response rate and positive participant feedback speaks for itself....

  1. Differentiated influences of benefit and risk perceptions on nuclear power acceptance according to acceptance levels. Evidence from Korea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roh, Seungkook; Lee Jinwon

    2017-01-01

    The perceived benefit and risk of nuclear power generation have received considerable attention as determinants of the public's nuclear power acceptance. However, the contingency of the relative importance of these benefit and risk has been less explored. Using Korea as an example, this study explores the possibility that the relative importance of perceived benefit and risk on nuclear power acceptance depends on acceptance levels. Our results from latent class analysis and multinomial probit show that, in determining whether an individual shows a moderate level of nuclear power acceptance rather than a low level, perceived risk plays a dominant role compared to perceived benefit; however, regarding whether he/she shows a high level of nuclear power acceptance rather than a moderate level, this relative importance is reversed. These results carry practical implications for risk governance of nuclear power, particularly with regard to communication with the public. (author)

  2. In utero and intra-partum HIV-1 transmission and acute HIV-1 infection during pregnancy: using the BED capture enzyme-immunoassay as a surrogate marker for acute infection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marinda, Edmore T; Moulton, Lawrence H; Humphrey, Jean H; Hargrove, John W; Ntozini, Robert; Mutasa, Kuda; Levin, Jonathan

    2011-08-01

    The BED assay was developed to estimate the proportion of recent HIV infections in a population. We used the BED assay as a proxy for acute infection to quantify the associated risk of mother-to-child-transmission (MTCT) during pregnancy and delivery. Design A total of 3773 HIV-1 sero-positive women were tested within 96 h of delivery using the BED assay, and CD4 cell count measurements were taken. Mothers were classified according to their likelihood of having recently seroconverted. The risk of MTCT in utero and intra-partum was assessed comparing different groups defined by BED and CD4 cell count, adjusting for background factors using multinomial logistic models. Compared with women with BED ≥ 0.8/CD4 ≥ 350 (typical of HIV-1 chronic patients) there was insufficient evidence to conclude that women presenting with BED pregnancy.

  3. Comparative 1H NMR-based metabonomic analysis of HIV-1 sera

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Philippeos, C.; Steffens, F. E.; Meyer, D.

    2009-01-01

    1 H NMR spectroscopy of sera from HIV-1 infected and uninfected individuals was performed on 300 and 600 MHz instruments. The resultant spectra were automatically data reduced to 90 and 180 integral segments of equal length. Analysis of variance identified significant differences between the sample groups, especially for the samples analyzed on 600 MHz and reduced to fewer segments. Linear discriminant analysis correctly classified 100% of the samples analyzed on the 300 MHz NMR (reduced to 180 segments); an increase in instrument sensitivity resulted in lower percentages of correctly classified samples. Multinomial logistic regression (MLR) resulted in 100% correct classification of all samples from both instruments. Thus 1 H-NMR metabonomics on either instrument distinguishes HIV-positive individuals using or not using anti retroviral therapy, but the sensitivity of the instrument impacts on data reduction. Furthermore, MLR is a novel multivariate statistical technique for improved classification of biological data analyzed in NMR

  4. Comparative {sup 1}H NMR-based metabonomic analysis of HIV-1 sera

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Philippeos, C. [University of Johannesburg, Department of Biochemistry (South Africa); Steffens, F. E. [University of Pretoria, Department of Statistics (South Africa); Meyer, D. [University of Pretoria, Department of Biochemistry (South Africa)], E-mail: debra.meyer@up.ac.za

    2009-07-15

    {sup 1}H NMR spectroscopy of sera from HIV-1 infected and uninfected individuals was performed on 300 and 600 MHz instruments. The resultant spectra were automatically data reduced to 90 and 180 integral segments of equal length. Analysis of variance identified significant differences between the sample groups, especially for the samples analyzed on 600 MHz and reduced to fewer segments. Linear discriminant analysis correctly classified 100% of the samples analyzed on the 300 MHz NMR (reduced to 180 segments); an increase in instrument sensitivity resulted in lower percentages of correctly classified samples. Multinomial logistic regression (MLR) resulted in 100% correct classification of all samples from both instruments. Thus {sup 1}H-NMR metabonomics on either instrument distinguishes HIV-positive individuals using or not using anti retroviral therapy, but the sensitivity of the instrument impacts on data reduction. Furthermore, MLR is a novel multivariate statistical technique for improved classification of biological data analyzed in NMR.

  5. Going Back Part-time: Family Leave Legislation and Women's Return to Work.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schott, Whitney

    2012-02-01

    Using a multinomial logit model with data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation, this paper tests whether the implementation of the Family and Medical Leave Act (FMLA) is associated with an increase in return to work at part-time status among first-time mothers working full-time during their pregnancy. I find a statistically significant trend of increasingly higher odds of returning to work at part-time status relative to return at full-time status, beginning in 1993 (the year in which the FMLA is implemented). Furthermore, an additional week of either state or federal leave is significantly associated with a higher odds of return at part-time status. This article provides evidence that job protection and leave legislation may help facilitate higher levels of labor force participation among women with small children, through more flexible work arrangements.

  6. Going Back Part-time: Family Leave Legislation and Women’s Return to Work

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Using a multinomial logit model with data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation, this paper tests whether the implementation of the Family and Medical Leave Act (FMLA) is associated with an increase in return to work at part-time status among first-time mothers working full-time during their pregnancy. I find a statistically significant trend of increasingly higher odds of returning to work at part-time status relative to return at full-time status, beginning in 1993 (the year in which the FMLA is implemented). Furthermore, an additional week of either state or federal leave is significantly associated with a higher odds of return at part-time status. This article provides evidence that job protection and leave legislation may help facilitate higher levels of labor force participation among women with small children, through more flexible work arrangements. PMID:22685365

  7. Multiple paths in educational transitions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karlson, Kristian Bernt

    2011-01-01

    In many countries educational branching points consist of more than two qualitatively different alternatives, and only some alternatives provide the opportunity of continuing into higher education. I develop a multinomial transition model for modeling the effects of family background...... characteristics and individual characteristics on these complex educational careers. The model controls for unobserved heterogeneity that may, if ignored, result in biased estimates. Compared to previous research, I explicitly include instrumental variables that ensure identification of the unobserved component....... I apply the model to the Danish case and analyze data which covers the educational careers of a cohort of Danes born around 1954. I find that the model brings forward non-trivial heterogeneity in the influence of family background and ability on qualitatively different choice alternatives both...

  8. A History of Abuse and Operative Delivery

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schei, Berit; Lukasse, Mirjam; Ryding, Elsa Lena

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: The main aim of this study was to assess whether a history of abuse, reported during pregnancy, was associated with an operative delivery. Secondly, we assessed if the association varied according to the type of abuse and if the reported abuse had been experienced as a child or an adult...... and multinomial regression analysis were used to assess the associations. RESULTS: Among 3308 primiparous women, sexual abuse as an adult (≥ 18 years) increased the risk of an elective CS, Adjusted Odds Ratio 2.12 (1.28-3.49), and the likelihood for a non-obstetrically indicated CS, OR 3.74 (1.24-11.24). Women...... expressing current suffering from the reported adult sexual abuse had the highest risk for an elective CS, AOR 4.07 (1.46-11.3). Neither physical abuse (in adulthood or childhood sexual abuse in childhood increased the risk of any operative delivery among primiparous women. Among 3416...

  9. Effects of ignoring baseline on modeling transitions from intact cognition to dementia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Lei; Tyas, Suzanne L; Snowdon, David A; Kryscio, Richard J

    2009-07-01

    This paper evaluates the effect of ignoring baseline when modeling transitions from intact cognition to dementia with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and global impairment (GI) as intervening cognitive states. Transitions among states are modeled by a discrete-time Markov chain having three transient (intact cognition, MCI, and GI) and two competing absorbing states (death and dementia). Transition probabilities depend on two covariates, age and the presence/absence of an apolipoprotein E-epsilon4 allele, through a multinomial logistic model with shared random effects. Results are illustrated with an application to the Nun Study, a cohort of 678 participants 75+ years of age at baseline and followed longitudinally with up to ten cognitive assessments per nun.

  10. Exact Slater integrals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Golden, L.B.

    1968-01-01

    In atomic structure calculations, one has to evaluate the Slater integrals. In the present program, the authors evaluate exactly the Slater integral when hydrogenic wave functions are used for the bound-state orbitals. When hydrogenic wave functions are used, the Slater integrals involve integrands which can be written in the form of a product of an exponential, exp(ax) and a known analytic polynomial function, f(x). By repeated partial integration such an integral can be expressed in terms of a finite series involving the exponential, the polynomial function and its derivatives. PL/1-FORMAC has a built-in subroutine that will analytically find the derivatives of any multinomial. Thus, the finite series and hence the Slater integral can be evaluated analytically. (Auth.)

  11. Heterogeneity in the WTP for recreational access

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Campbell, Danny; Vedel, Suzanne Elizabeth; Thorsen, Bo Jellesmark

    2014-01-01

    In this study we have addressed appropriate modelling of heterogeneity in willingness to pay (WTP) for environmental goods, and have demonstrated its importance using a case of forest access in Denmark. We compared WTP distributions for four models: (1) a multinomial logit model, (2) a mixed logit...... model assuming a univariate Normal distribution, (3) or assuming a multivariate Normal distribution allowing for correlation across attributes, and (4) a mixture of two truncated Normal distributions, allowing for correlation among attributes. In the first two models mean WTP for enhanced access...... was negative. However, models accounting for preference heterogeneity found a positive mean WTP, but a large sub-group with negative WTP. Accounting for preference heterogeneity can alter overall conclusions, which highlights the importance of this for policy recommendations....

  12. Influence of quartz exposure on lung cancer types in cases of lymph node-only silicosis and lung silicosis in German uranium miners.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mielke, Stefan; Taeger, Dirk; Weitmann, Kerstin; Brüning, Thomas; Hoffmann, Wolfgang

    2018-05-04

    Inhaled crystalline quartz is a carcinogen. Analyses show differences in the distribution of lung cancer types depending on the status of silicosis. Using 2,524 lung tumor cases from the WISMUT autopsy repository database, silicosis was differentiated into cases without silicosis in lung parenchyma and its lymph nodes, with lymph node-only silicosis, or with lung silicosis including lymph node silicosis. The proportions of adenocarcinoma, squamous cell carcinoma, and small-cell lung carcinoma mortality for increasing quartz exposures were estimated in a multinomial logistic regression model. The relative proportions of the lung cancer subtypes in lymph node-only silicosis were more similar to lung silicosis than without any silicosis. The results support the hypothesis that quartz-related carcinogenesis in case of lymph node-only silicosis is more similar to that in lung silicosis than in without silicosis.

  13. Latitudinal variation in the symbiotic dinoflagellateSymbiodiniumof the common reef zoantharianPalythoa tuberculosaon the Saudi Arabian coast of the Red Sea

    KAUST Repository

    Reimer, James D.; Herrera Sarrias, Marcela; Gatins, Remy; Roberts, May B.; Parkinson, John E.; Berumen, Michael L.

    2016-01-01

    Main conclusions Multinomial logistic regression analyses established that predictions based on the combination of temperature, chlorophyll-a and salinity accurately reflected symbiont distributions in the central and northern Red Sea. Palythoa tuberculosa host Pt-1-a in the coldest region, the Gulf of Aqaba (annual average SST = 24.5–25.0 °C), while immediately to the south Pt-3-a dominates (SST = 26.0–26.5 °C), with warmest southern sites dominated by Pt-3-b (SST > 26.5 °C). The Gulf of Aqaba is a unique environment, and more research on Symbiodinium outside the Gulf is required to understand symbiont diversity patterns within the Red Sea.

  14. Estimating the Proportion of True Null Hypotheses in Multiple Testing Problems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oluyemi Oyeniran

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The problem of estimating the proportion, π0, of the true null hypotheses in a multiple testing problem is important in cases where large scale parallel hypotheses tests are performed independently. While the problem is a quantity of interest in its own right in applications, the estimate of π0 can be used for assessing or controlling an overall false discovery rate. In this article, we develop an innovative nonparametric maximum likelihood approach to estimate π0. The nonparametric likelihood is proposed to be restricted to multinomial models and an EM algorithm is also developed to approximate the estimate of π0. Simulation studies show that the proposed method outperforms other existing methods. Using experimental microarray datasets, we demonstrate that the new method provides satisfactory estimate in practice.

  15. Short-term poverty dynamics of rural households: Evidence from Central Sulawesi, Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefan Schwarze

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available The understanding of poverty dynamics is crucial for the design of appropriate poverty reduction strategies. Taking the case of Central Sulawesi, we investigate the determinants of both chronic and transitory poverty using data from 264 randomly selected households interviewed in 2005 and 2007. Regarding the US 1$/day poverty line, the headcount index declined from 19.3% in 2005 to 18.2% in 2007. However, we observed an increasing number of people living on less than US 2$/day expressed in purchasing power parity (PPP. The results of the estimated multinomial logit model applied in this study indicate that a lack of non-agricultural employment opportunities and low endowment of social capital are major determinants of chronic as well as transitory poverty in this province of Indonesia. These results are used to draw policy conclusions with respect to the alleviation of transitory and chronic poverty in Central Sulawesi.

  16. Eimeriosis in Danish Dairy Calves – Correlation between Species, Oocyst Excretion and Diarrhoea

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Enemark, Heidi L.; Dahl, Jan; Enemark, Jörg M Dehn

    2013-01-01

    The study collected up-to-date data on prevalence and importance of Eimeria infections in Danish dairy calves with suspected clinical eimeriosis and analysed correlation between Eimeria spp., oocyst excretion and diarrhoea. From October 2010 through August 2011, veterinarians collected faecal...... determined, along with opg values for the specific Eimeria spp. Association between opg and faeces consistency was evaluated in a multinomial, logistic regression model. Overall prevalence of Eimeria spp. was 96.2 % with a prevalence of 60.9 % in individual calves. E. zuernii and/or E. bovis were detected...... in 88.5 % of herds and 41.5 % of the calves. Mean opg was 2,040 (range 0–114,000) in the calves, of which 18.1 % had opg values ≥ 1,000. A total of 12 Eimeria spp. was found with the following calf prevalences: E. ellipsoidalis (37 %), E. zuernii (32 %), E. bovis (28 %), E. cylindrica (23 %), E...

  17. Workshop on Model Uncertainty and its Statistical Implications

    CERN Document Server

    1988-01-01

    In this book problems related to the choice of models in such diverse fields as regression, covariance structure, time series analysis and multinomial experiments are discussed. The emphasis is on the statistical implications for model assessment when the assessment is done with the same data that generated the model. This is a problem of long standing, notorious for its difficulty. Some contributors discuss this problem in an illuminating way. Others, and this is a truly novel feature, investigate systematically whether sample re-use methods like the bootstrap can be used to assess the quality of estimators or predictors in a reliable way given the initial model uncertainty. The book should prove to be valuable for advanced practitioners and statistical methodologists alike.

  18. Impacts of geographical locations and sociocultural traits on the Vietnamese entrepreneurship.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vuong, Quan Hoang

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents new results obtained from investigating the data from a 2015 Vietnamese entrepreneurs' survey, containing 3071 observations. Evidence from the estimations using multinomial logits was found to support relationships between several sociocultural factors and entrepreneurship-related performance or traits. Specifically, those relationships include: (a) Active participation in entrepreneurs' social networks and reported value of creativity; (b) CSR-willingness and reported entrepreneurs' perseverance; (c) Transforming of sociocultural values and entrepreneurs' decisiveness; and, (d) Lessons learned from others' failures and perceived chance of success. Using geographical locations as the control variate, evaluations of the baseline-category logits models indicate their varying effects on the outcomes when combined with the sociocultural factors that are found to be statistically significant. Empirical probabilities that give further detail about behavioral patterns are provided; and toward the end, the paper offers some conclusions with some striking insights and useful explanations on the Vietnamese entrepreneurship processes.

  19. The public understanding of nanotechnology in the food domain: the hidden role of views on science, technology, and nature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vandermoere, Frederic; Blanchemanche, Sandrine; Bieberstein, Andrea; Marette, Stephan; Roosen, Jutta

    2011-03-01

    In spite of great expectations about the potential of nanotechnology, this study shows that people are rather ambiguous and pessimistic about nanotechnology applications in the food domain. Our findings are drawn from a survey of public perceptions about nanotechnology food and nanotechnology food packaging (N = 752). Multinomial logistic regression analyses further reveal that knowledge about food risks and nanotechnology significantly influences people's views about nanotechnology food packaging. However, knowledge variables were unrelated to support for nanofood, suggesting that an increase in people's knowledge might not be sufficient to bridge the gap between the excitement some business leaders in the food sector have and the restraint of the public. Additionally, opposition to nanofood was not related to the use of heuristics but to trust in governmental agencies. Furthermore, the results indicate that public perceptions of nanoscience in the food domain significantly relate to views on science, technology, and nature.

  20. Pendeteksian Malware pada Lingkungan Aplikasi Web dengan Kategorisasi Dokumen

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fransiskus Gusti Ngurah Dwika Setiawan

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Jumlah aplikasi berbasis web semakin bertambah seiring dengan perkembangan teknologi informasi. Dengan bertambahnya jumlah aplikasi web, serangan-serangan yang dilakukan terhadap aplikasi-aplikasi web tersebut juga meningkat. Salah satu jenis serangan yang marak dilakukan terhadap aplikasi web adalah penyisipan malware seperti web shell yang dapat memberikan akses bebas terhadap komputer server kepada penyerang.Dalam makalah ini, dijelaskan implementasi aplikasi yang menerapkan teknik kategorisasi dokumen untuk mendeteksi malware atau kode malicious khususnya jenis web shell dengan teknik kategorisasi dokumen. Proses kategorisasi dokumen meliputi praproses dan tokenisasi kode sumber, pembuatan model classifier Multinomial Naive Bayes dan Decision Tree, dan klasifikasi dokumen menggunakan classifier yang telah dibuat. Uji coba yang dilakukan terhadap 718 file kode sumber PHP menghasilkan tingkat precision dari 72% hingga 83% dan recall 83% hingga 97%.

  1. Suicidal ideation and attempts in adolescents: associations with depression and six domains of self-esteem.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wild, Lauren G; Flisher, Alan J; Lombard, Carl

    2004-12-01

    This study aimed to disentangle the influence of depression and self-esteem on suicidal behaviour in adolescence. Grades 8 and 11 students in Cape Town, South Africa (n = 939) completed questionnaires assessing suicidal ideation and behaviour, depression, and self-esteem with respect to family, peers, school, sports/athletics, body image and global self-worth. Data were analysed using a series of multinomial logistic regression models adjusted for gender, grade, race and the sampling strategy. Results indicated that depression and low self-esteem in the family context were independently associated with suicide ideation and attempts. Moreover, low family self-esteem significantly differentiated suicide attempters from ideators. Screening for depression and low self-esteem in the family context is discussed as a possible strategy for helping to identify adolescents at risk for suicide attempts.

  2. Perceived health status and daily activity participation of older Malaysians.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ng, Sor Tho; Tengku-Aizan, Hamid; Tey, Nai Peng

    2011-07-01

    This article investigates the influence of perceived health status on the daily activity participation of older Malaysians. Data from the Survey on Perceptions of Needs and Problems of the Elderly, which was conducted in 1999, were used. The negative binomial regression results show that older persons with good perceived health status reported more varieties of daily activity participation, especially among the uneducated and those with below-average self-esteem. The multinomial logistic regression model suggests that older persons with good perceived health status tended to engage daily in paid work only or with leisure activities, whereas those perceived to have poor health were more likely to engage in leisure activities only or leisure and family role activities. Promotion of a healthy lifestyle at a younger age encourages every person to monitor and take responsibility for their own health, which is a necessary strategy to ensure active participation at an older age, and thus improve their well-being.

  3. Public Perceptions of GPS Monitoring for Convicted Sex Offenders: Opinions on Effectiveness of Electronic Monitoring to Reduce Sexual Recidivism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Budd, Kristen M; Mancini, Christina

    2017-09-01

    In the United States, electronic monitoring (EM) and global positioning systems (GPS) are new applications that are used to extensively monitor and track convicted sex offenders. What is unclear though are public perceptions of this strategy. This research examines public perceptions of a national sample of Americans on the use of GPS/EM with convicted sex offenders as a method to reduce their sexual recidivism. Using a multinomial regression model, we analyze the effects of sex offender myths and parental status on public perceptions that sex offender GPS/EM is very effective in reducing sexual recidivism. Findings suggest that public perceptions of effectiveness are partially driven by myths and also that parents are unsure of this strategy. The analysis contributes to the growing body of knowledge on public perceptions of GPS/EM to manage sex offenders in communities. Implications of the study and areas for future research are discussed in light of the findings.

  4. Tracking Psychosocial Health in Adults with Epilepsy—Estimates from the 2010 National Health Interview Survey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kobau, R; Cui, W; Kadima, N; Zack, MM; Sajatovic, M; Kaiboriboon, K; Jobst, B

    2015-01-01

    Objective This study provides population-based estimates of psychosocial health among U.S. adults with epilepsy from the 2010 National Health Interview Survey. Methods Multinomial logistic regression was used to estimate the prevalence of the following measures of psychosocial health among adults with and those without epilepsy: 1) the Kessler-6 scale of Serious Psychological Distress; 2) cognitive limitation; the extent of impairments associated with psychological problems; and work limitation; 3) Social participation; and 4) the Patient Reported Outcome Measurement Information System Global Health scale. Results Compared with adults without epilepsy, adults with epilepsy, especially those with active epilepsy, reported significantly worse psychological health, more cognitive impairment, difficulty in participating in some social activities, and reduced health-related quality of life (HRQOL). Conclusions These disparities in psychosocial health in U.S. adults with epilepsy serve as baseline national estimates of their HRQOL, consistent with Healthy People 2020 national objectives on HRQOL. PMID:25305435

  5. Fidelización y rentabilización de usuarios de seguros todo riesgo de vehículos por medio de la venta cruzada y la venta escalonada. Un enfoque promocional para la industria aseguradora

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos Gabriel Contreras Serrano

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Mantener relaciones activas con clientes rentables es uno de los principales objetivos de la industria aseguradora en Colombia. Para esto y para generar campañas de retención, se han desarrollado modelos tácticos de segmentación que tienen en cuenta la probabilidad de fuga del cliente y el valor vitalicio del mismo. Esta investigación propone un diseño de análisis conjunto con 560 tomadores de pólizas de seguros de autos en diversas latitudes del país. Se examinan los esquemas promocionales que aceleran la probabilidad de renovar la póliza de seguro que tienen con su agencia aseguradora actual. La aplicación de un modelo logit multinomial ofrece evidencia de que las promociones bajo venta cruzada son eficientes para fidelizar usuarios rentables, mientras la venta escalonada es propicia para rentabilizar clientes fieles.

  6. The association between acculturation and health insurance coverage for immigrant children from socioeconomically disadvantaged regions of origin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hernandez, Daphne C; Kimbro, Rachel Tolbert

    2013-06-01

    Among immigrant children whose parents have historically had lower education, the study explored which immigrant children were most likely to have coverage based on maternal region of origin. The direct and indirect relationship of acculturation on immigrant children's coverage was also assessed. A subsample of US-born children with foreign-born mothers from the Early Childhood Longitudinal Survey-Kindergarten Cohort was analyzed using multinomial logistic regressions (n = 1,686). Children whose mothers emigrated from the Caribbean or Indochina had greater odds of being insured compared to children whose mothers emigrated from Mexico. Moreover, Latin American children did not statistically differ from Mexican children in being uninsured. Maternal citizenship was positively associated with children's coverage; while living in a household with a mother who migrated as a child was negatively associated with private insurance. To increase immigrant children's coverage, Latin American and Mexican families may benefit from additional financial assistance, rather than cultural assistance.

  7. Parent-Teacher Association, Soup Kitchen, Church, or the Local Civic Club? Life Stage Indicators of Volunteer Domain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carr, Dawn C; King, Katherine; Matz-Costa, Christina

    2015-04-01

    Gaps in existing literature hinder our knowledge of how life stage-related identities (e.g., worker, parent, student, etc.) influence individuals' decisions about whether and how to get involved in community service. Interventions to increase volunteerism throughout the life course require a more nuanced understanding of this relationship. We use multinomial logistic models to analyze how life phase factors relate to involvement in different types of voluntary organizations across the adult life course in the Chicago Community Adult Health Study. Half of the adults did not volunteer. Those who did volunteer were categorized as charitable, youth-oriented, religious, civic, or multidomain volunteers. Age, employment, family structure, demographics, and self-rated health differentially predicted volunteering in specific domains. Findings from this study suggest that recruitment and retention efforts employed by different nonprofit organizations may be more effective if they take into consideration the life phase factors that enhance or detract from likelihood of engagement. © The Author(s) 2015.

  8. Statistical modelling for social researchers principles and practice

    CERN Document Server

    Tarling, Roger

    2008-01-01

    This book explains the principles and theory of statistical modelling in an intelligible way for the non-mathematical social scientist looking to apply statistical modelling techniques in research. The book also serves as an introduction for those wishing to develop more detailed knowledge and skills in statistical modelling. Rather than present a limited number of statistical models in great depth, the aim is to provide a comprehensive overview of the statistical models currently adopted in social research, in order that the researcher can make appropriate choices and select the most suitable model for the research question to be addressed. To facilitate application, the book also offers practical guidance and instruction in fitting models using SPSS and Stata, the most popular statistical computer software which is available to most social researchers. Instruction in using MLwiN is also given. Models covered in the book include; multiple regression, binary, multinomial and ordered logistic regression, log-l...

  9. Education and Occupational Outcomes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Johnes, Geraint; Freguglia, Ricardo; Spricigo, Gisele

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to examine the dynamic relationship between policies related to educational provision and both educational participation and occupational outcomes in Brazil, using PNAD and RAIS-Migra data. Design/methodology/approach: Outcomes are examined using: static...... multinomial logit analysis, and structural dynamic discrete choice modelling. The latter approach, coupled with the quality of the RAIS-Migra data source, allows the authors to evaluate the education policy impacts over time. Findings: The main results show that the education level raises the propensity...... that the individual will be in formal sector work or still in education, and reduces the probability of the other outcomes. Transition into non-manual formal sector work following education may, however, occur via a spell of manual work. Originality/value: This is the first study of occupational destination...

  10. Board characteristics, governance objectives, and hospital performance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thiel, Andrea; Winter, Vera; Büchner, Vera Antonia

    2018-01-01

    membership relates to board characteristics and financial performance. METHODOLOGY: Using factor analysis, we identify latent classes of governance objectives and use hierarchical cluster analysis to detect distinct clusters with varying emphasis on the classes. We then use multinomial regression to explore...... the associations between cluster membership and board characteristics (size, gender diversity, and occupational diversity) and examine the associations between clusters and financial performance using OLS regression. RESULTS: Classes of objectives reflecting three governance theories-agency theory, stewardship...... and hospital financial performance, with two of three groups performing significantly better than the reference group. CONCLUSION: High performance in hospitals can be the result of governance logics, which, compared to simple board characteristics, are associated with better financial outcomes. PRACTICE...

  11. Analysis of outpatient healthcare utilization in the context of the universal healthcare coverage reform in Mexico.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergio Bautista-Arredondo

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective. Understand and quantify the relationship between socio-economic and health insurance profiles and the use of outpatient medical services in the context of universal health care in Mexico. Materials and methods. Using ENSANUT 2012 multinomial regression models were estimated to analyze the use of outpatient services and associated factors. Results. Population with greater poverty levels, lower educational level and living in highly marginalized areas have lower odds to use outpatient health services. In contrast, health insurance and higher income increase the odds to use health services and influence the choice of provider. Conclusions. Barriers to access to health care related to poverty and social protection persist. However, there is space to lower the effect of these barriers by addressing constraints linked to the supply and the perceived quality of healthcare services.

  12. [Analysis of outpatient healthcare utilization in the context of the universal healthcare coverage reform in Mexico].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bautista-Arredondo, Sergio; Serván-Mori, Edson; Colchero, M Arantxa; Ramírez-Rodríguez, Baruch; Sosa-Rubí, Sandra G

    2014-01-01

    Understand and quantify the relationship between socio-economic and health insurance profiles and the use of outpatient medical services in the context of universal health care in Mexico. Using ENSANUT 2012 multinomial regression models were estimated to analyze the use of outpatient services and associated factors. Population with greater poverty levels, lower educational level and living in highly marginalized areas have lower odds to use outpatient health services. In contrast, health insurance and higher income increase the odds to use health services and influence the choice of provider. Barriers to access to health care related to poverty and social protection persist. However, there is space to lower the effect of these barriers by addressing constraints linked to the supply and the perceived quality of healthcare services.

  13. Social influence, agent heterogeneity and the emergence of the urban informal sector

    Science.gov (United States)

    García-Díaz, César; Moreno-Monroy, Ana I.

    2012-02-01

    We develop an agent-based computational model in which the urban informal sector acts as a buffer where rural migrants can earn some income while queuing for higher paying modern-sector jobs. In the model, the informal sector emerges as a result of rural-urban migration decisions of heterogeneous agents subject to social influence in the form of neighboring effects of varying strengths. Besides using a multinomial logit choice model that allows for agent idiosyncrasy, explicit agent heterogeneity is introduced in the form of socio-demographic characteristics preferred by modern-sector employers. We find that different combinations of the strength of social influence and the socio-economic composition of the workforce lead to very different urbanization and urban informal sector shares. In particular, moderate levels of social influence and a large proportion of rural inhabitants with preferred socio-demographic characteristics are conducive to a higher urbanization rate and a larger informal sector.

  14. How can have an influence to be a housewive on women's fiscal awareness?: the case of Spain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gloria Alarcón-García

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available The authors analyze the Spanish fiscal awareness through citizens' perception on the tax system. A questionnaire is used for exploring the most influential factors: knowledge of the system, acceptance of fraud, use of social benefits without adequate compensation, and satisfaction and confidence in institutions. Once the contingency table is built and the strength of the statistical significance is analyzed - by Cramer's V coefficient - binary logistic regression models, multinomial logistic regression and ordinal regression are applied. Educational level and employment status were taken as covariates, demonstrating the lack of statistical significance of gender in tax awareness. There are significant differences between men, women and the group of housewives. These women show lower levels of fiscal awareness, a greater lack of knowledge about the system, more acceptance of fraud, more dissatisfaction with administrations and further distrust towards their fellow citizens.

  15. Socioeconomic Factors Affecting Adoption of Sunflower Varieties in Sindh

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ghulam Ali Jariko (Corresponding Author

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available This research study is based on primary data collection from sunflower growers to assess the socioeconomic factors that are affecting the adoption of sunflower varieties in Sindh.Data samples have been selected from two districts; Badin and Thatta, as these districts are considered main sunflower growing areas in Sindh. The results reveal that Sunflower growers are using Hybrid varieties i.e. 43 percent planted Hysun-33, 29 percent Hysun-38 and 28 percent Hysun-37 varieties. The finding of research using multinomial logistic regression suggests that farm size and level of education significantly affected the adoption of sunflower varieties. These factors are statistically significant at p<0.05. Theother variables such as tenancy status and source of income are not statistically significant in the adoption of sunflower varieties in Sindh.

  16. Validation of patient and nurse short forms of the Readiness for Hospital Discharge Scale and their relationship to return to the hospital.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weiss, Marianne E; Costa, Linda L; Yakusheva, Olga; Bobay, Kathleen L

    2014-02-01

    To validate patient and nurse short forms for discharge readiness assessment and their associations with 30-day readmissions and emergency department (ED) visits. A total of 254 adult medical-surgical patients and their discharging nurses from an Eastern US tertiary hospital between May and November, 2011. Prospective longitudinal design, multinomial logistic regression analysis. Nurses and patients independently completed an eight-item Readiness for Hospital Discharge Scale on the day of discharge. Patient characteristics, readmissions, and ED visits were electronically abstracted. Nurse assessment of low discharge readiness was associated with a six- to nine-fold increase in readmission risk. Patient self-assessment was not associated with readmission; neither was associated with ED visits. Nurse discharge readiness assessment should be added to existing strategies for identifying readmission risk. © Health Research and Educational Trust.

  17. The Dynamics of Online Purchase Visits: Inertia or Switching?

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zelin Zhang; Xia Wang; Peter T.L.Popkowski Leszczyc; Xiao Zuo

    2016-01-01

    This paper studies the dynamics of online purchase patterns,focusing on the impact of the channel used on conversion probability,as well as the transition of channel use over time.A novel data set from a major Chinese online travel agency is used for analysis,consisting of four months of data with 24,337 store visits through three types of channels:direct visit,search advertising and referral.Results of a Bayesian multinomial logit model show that the search channel significantly affects consumers' conversion probability,and show a high degree of inertia in channel use.This finding contrasts sharply with suggestions of previous research that most future purchases will converge to the direct-visit channel.

  18. Diabetes mellitus, hypertension and medial temporal lobe atrophy: the LADIS study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Korf, E S C; van Straaten, E C W; de Leeuw, F-E

    2007-01-01

    HYPOTHESIS: Based on recent findings on the association between vascular risk factors and hippocampal atrophy, we hypothesized that hypertension and diabetes mellitus (DM) are associated with medial temporal lobe atrophy (MTA) in subjects without disability, independent of the severity of white...... matter hyperintensities. METHODS: In the Leukoaraiosis And DISability in the elderly (LADIS) study, we investigated the relationships between DM, hypertension, blood pressure and MTA in 582 subjects, stratified by white matter hyperintensity severity, using multinomial logistic regression. MTA...... was visually scored for the left and right medial temporal lobe (score 0-4), and meaned. RESULTS: Mean age was 73.5 years (sd 5.1), 54% was female. Of the subjects, 15% had DM, and 70% had a history of hypertension. The likelihood of having MTA score 3 was significantly higher in subjects with DM (OR 2.9; 95...

  19. Theoretical foundations for evidence-based health informatics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Scott, P.; Georgiou, A.; Hypponen, H.

    2016-01-01

    such as conditional imputation and a ‘‘missing’’- category in multiple regression analyses. Health—exploring complexity: an interdisciplinary systems approach HEC2016 S23 123 Methods A cross sectional survey in a random sample of Danish fishermen was done in 2015 with application of the Nordic questionnaire...... considering relevant confounders were used to look at each single pain site with missing as an additional outcome. In all analyses, sideline occupations, work position, vessel type, education, and duration at sea were considered as further predictors. Results The prevalence of pain was high for all...... excluding all missing’s revealed similar results. Multinomial regression models showed that workload was the only consistent predictor for musculoskeletal pain, in particular regarding upper and lower limb pain. Two additional predictors were found for the nine different pain locations models; sideline...

  20. Land related grievances shape tropical forest-cover in areas affected by armed-conflict

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nunez, Augusto Carlos Castro; Mertz, Ole; Buritica, Alexander

    2017-01-01

    Armed-conflicts often occur in tropical areas considered to be of high ‘conservation-value’, termed as such for their biodiversity or carbon-storage functions. Despite this important overlap, few studies have assessed how forest-biomass is affected by armed-conflicts. Thus, in this paper we develop...... a multinomial logit model to examine how outcomes of the interactions between carbon-storage, armed-conflict and deforestation rates are linked to social, institutional and economic factors. We use Colombia as a case study because of its protracted armed-conflict, high forest-cover, sustained deforestation......-ownership disputes, the Colombian government might uphold their international climate change commitments via reducing deforestation and hence forest based carbon emissions, while pursuing their national security objective via undermining opportunities for guerrilla groups to operate....

  1. THE DAIRY VALUE CHAIN AND FACTORS AFFECTING CHOICE OF MILK CHANNELS IN HARAR AND DIRE DAWA AREAS, EASTERN ETHIOPIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mengistu KETEMA

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The study was aimed at mapping the dairy value chain, assessing constraints and opportunities in the sector, and identifying factors affecting channel choices of producers in Harar and Dire Dawa milkshed areas. Data were collected from 93 producers, six collectors, seven wholesalers, seven retailers, and ten consumers. Both descriptive and econometric analysis were employed. The study revealed that the channel choices available to producers include selling to collectors, wholesalers, retailers, and directly to consumers. The multinomial model output indicated that being in rural areas, breed type, separate milking place, and supply of hay negatively determined the choice to sell to wholesalers, retailers, and consumers. In contrast, education status and milk storage duration positively determined producers’ choice not to sell to collectors. The major recommendations include provision of training, disseminating dairy technologies, encouraging value chain actors to add values; and enhancing collective actions of producers.

  2. Recommender system based on scarce information mining.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Wei; Chung, Fu-Lai; Lai, Kunfeng; Zhang, Liang

    2017-09-01

    Guessing what user may like is now a typical interface for video recommendation. Nowadays, the highly popular user generated content sites provide various sources of information such as tags for recommendation tasks. Motivated by a real world online video recommendation problem, this work targets at the long tail phenomena of user behavior and the sparsity of item features. A personalized compound recommendation framework for online video recommendation called Dirichlet mixture probit model for information scarcity (DPIS) is hence proposed. Assuming that each clicking sample is generated from a representation of user preferences, DPIS models the sample level topic proportions as a multinomial item vector, and utilizes topical clustering on the user part for recommendation through a probit classifier. As demonstrated by the real-world application, the proposed DPIS achieves better performance in accuracy, perplexity as well as diversity in coverage than traditional methods. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Sources of Variation in the Age Composition of Sandeel Landings

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kvist, Trine; Gislason, Hannes; Thyregod, Poul

    2001-01-01

    in the samples is significantly lower in the start and end of the fishing season. This suggests that the older sandeel are available to the fishery for a shorter time period that the 1-group. Significant differences are found in the age composition between the four laboratories involved in the age determination......The variation of the age composition of the landings of lesser sandeel in the Danish industrial fishery in the North Sea over the period From 1984-1993 is analysed by continuation-ratio logits and generalised linear models. The analysis takes the multinomial characteristics of the age composition....... Although the variation between ICES statistical rectangles is substantial there is a significant difference between the age composition in the northern and southern part of the North Sea. However, only one of the three finer geographical stratifications proposed to improve the assessment results...

  4. Bottom fish assemblages at the shelf and continental slope off East Greenland

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Ole A; Hvingel, Carsten; Møller, P.R.

    2015-01-01

    During 2006 and 2008 two bottom trawl surveys were conducted at East Greenland to 72°N covering depths down to 1500 m. In the 149 trawl hauls in total 113 fish species were recorded of which 37 were considered pelagic and excluded from the analyses. As a first step the abundance data for the 76...... benthic species were used for analyses of the fish fauna diversity and fish assemblages. Nine assemblages were found by a standard type of cluster analysis. A Bayesian multinomial logit model was then applied to calculate vectors of probabilities defining the likelihood of each haul belonging to each...... distribution, species composition, temperature and depth. Three of the assemblages were located in the cold Iceland Sea while six were found in the somewhat warmer Irminger Sea...

  5. Internal migration in Mexico and its determinants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rogelio Varela Llamas

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an analysis of internal migration in Mexico. Using micro data from the National Survey on Occupation and Employment (enoe, we estimate a multinomial logit model for the case of intrastate and interstate migration. We also conduct estimations for municipalities of different sizes. The results suggest that the probability of migrating increases with the number of weeks spent searching for a job, regardless of whether the search is conducted while the individual is employed or unemployed. In addition, we find that as the number of hours of work per week increases, the probability of migrating rises. The search process does not increase the probability of migrating in rural communities as it does in urban centers.

  6. Cooperative Decision-Making and Intimate Partner Violence in Peru.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Svec, Joseph; Andic, Tanja

    2018-03-01

    Using the continuous Demographic and Health Surveys (2005-2012) for Peru, we employ multinomial logistic regression estimates to assess risk for intimate partner violence (IPV). Using empowerment and gender frameworks for IPV, we find that women making more household decisions jointly are less likely to experience physical violence. We also find that education is negatively associated with IPV, unless a woman's attainment exceeds her partner's. Although women earning more than their partners are more likely to experience violence, joint decision-makers have a lower risk of moderate physical violence even when their status exceeds that of a male partner. By adding measures for relationship dynamics, we highlight the ways decision-making within the household contributes to violence risk for women. While deviating from male-breadwinning norms can result in violence, risk factors are conditioned on the nature of cooperation within a partnership. Our findings suggest that shared power within the household reduces IPV risk.

  7. Bio-Social Predictors of Hypertension Among Premenopausal and Postmenopausal Women

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Renu Tyagi

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available In the present study, the contribution of various biological and lifestyle factors toward progression to hypertension are examined among menopausal and postmenopausal women. A cross-sectional study among 245 women of 20 to 65 years was conducted. Besides blood pressure, fat percentage using bio-electric impedance analyzer and adiposity indices such as body mass index (BMI, waist–hip ratio (WHR, and waist–height ratio (WHtR were taken. Mean, standard deviation, ANOVA, and multinomial logistic were used to analyze the data. Statistically significant differences (p< .001 for blood pressure among postmenopausal and premenopausal women were found. Among both premenopausal and postmenopausal women, the prehypertensive and hypertensive group showed significant differences with the normotensive women for body weight (p< .005, regional obesity, and general obesity. Low educational level, working status of women, socioeconomic status, nuclear family setup, postmenopausal status, and obesity were found to be the likely risk factors for prehypertension or hypertension among women.

  8. The role of reinstating generation operations in recognition memory and reality monitoring

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nieznański Marek

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available The role of encoding/retrieval conditions compatibility was investigated in a reality-monitoring task. An experiment was conducted which showed a positive effect of reinstating distinctive encoding operations at test. That is, generation of a low-frequency (LF word from the same word fragment at study and test significantly enhanced item recognition memory. However, reinstating of relatively more automatic operations of reading or generating a highfrequency (HF word did not influence recognition performance. Moreover, LF words were better recognized than HF words, but memory for source did not depend on the encoding/retrieval match or on the word-frequency. In comparison with reading, generating an item at study significantly enhanced source memory but generating it at test had no effect. The data were analysed using a multinomial modelling approach which allowed ruling out the influence of a response bias on the measurement of memory ability.

  9. Physical Activity and Sedentary Time Associations with Metabolic Health Across Weight Statuses in Children and Adolescents

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kuzik, Nicholas; Carson, Valerie; Andersen, Lars Bo

    2017-01-01

    classification compared with metabolically healthy (MH) classification for the NW group. More MVPA was associated with lower odds of MU classification than MH classification for NW and overweight groups. For multinomial logistic regressions, more MVPA was associated with lower odds of MH-obesity classification......, as well as MU-NW, -overweight, and -obesity classifications, compared with the MH-NW group. Furthermore, more sedentary time was associated with higher odds of MU-NW classification compared with the MH-NW group. CONCLUSIONS: More MVPA was beneficial for metabolic health and weight status, whereas lower......OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to examine the prevalence of metabolic health across weight statuses and the associations of physical activity and sedentary time within and across metabolic health-weight status groups. METHODS: Six studies (n = 4,581) from the International Children...

  10. Direct and indirect relationships between physical activity and happiness levels among older adults: a cross-sectional study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Souto Barreto, Philipe

    2014-09-01

    The purposes of this study were to examine if physical activity (PA) is associated to happiness and to investigate if social functioning and health status mediate this association. Participants of this cross-sectional study were 323 men and women, age 60 or over, who were covered by the medical insurance of the French National Education System, France. They received by mail a self-report questionnaire that asked for information about general health, PA, and happiness. In multinomial logistic regressions, the total volume of PA was associated to higher levels of happiness, but this association disappeared in the presence of social functioning. A structural equation modelling (SEM) showed an indirect association between PA and happiness, which was mediated by participants' health status and social functioning; in this SEM model, social functioning was the only variable directly associated to happiness. Complex associations among PA, health status, and social functioning appear to determine happiness levels in older adults.

  11. Pobreza subjetiva y reconocimiento étnico en Colombia: análisis para principales regiones, año 2013

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Santiago Arroyo-Mina

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available En este artículo se contrasta empíricamente la hipótesis que, en Colombia, laraza tiene un efecto significativo en la percepción de pobreza de los propiosindividuos y condiciona la manera como éstos perciben los diferentes aspectosde bienestar. Se emplea la Encuesta Nacional de Calidad de Vida (ECV reali-zada en Colombia para el año 2013. La estimación de un modelo logit multi-nomial revela que el ser afrocolombiano aumenta la probabilidad de percibir queel ingreso promedio del hogar no es suficiente para cubrir sus gastos mínimos yaleja la probabilidad de percibir que éstos sean, al menos, suficientes.

  12. Assessing the Relationship Between Chronic Health Conditions and Productivity Loss Trajectories

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pranksy, Glenn

    2014-01-01

    Objective: To examine the relationship between health conditions and the risk for membership in longitudinal trajectories of productivity loss. Methods: Trajectories of productivity loss from the ages of 25 to 44 years, previously identified in the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY79), were combined with information on health conditions from the age 40 years health module in the NLSY79. Multinomial logistic regression was used to examine the relative risk of being in the low-risk, early-onset increasing risk, late-onset increasing risk, or high-risk trajectories compared with the no-risk trajectory for having various health conditions. Results: The trajectories with the greatest probability of productivity loss longitudinally had a greater prevalence of the individual health conditions and a greater total number of health conditions experienced. Conclusions: Health conditions are associated with specific longitudinal patterns of experiencing productivity loss. PMID:25479294

  13. Determinantes de la elección de una universidad para estudiantes de último año de educación secundaria en Costa Rica

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Andrey Zamora Araya

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Se realiza una breve introducción sobre la educación superior en Costa Rica desde el siglo XIX hasta la actualidad. Se realiza un análisis de regresión multinomial tomando como variable independiente la universidad para realizar estudios superiores y como variables independientes, en su mayoría categóricas, se analizaron el género el colegio de procedencia, la carrera que desea cursar, materia que más le agrada, tipo de estudiante y un índice de "prestigio" para cada universidad. Los resultados mostraron que las principales variables que influyen en la elección de la universidad son el género, el tipo de colegio y el prestigio que gozan los centros de enseñanza superior.

  14. Meta-analysis data for 104 Energy-Economy Nexus papers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hajko, Vladimír; Kociánová, Agáta; Buličková, Martina

    2017-06-01

    The data presented here are manually encoded characteristics of research papers in the area of Energy-Economy Nexus (empirical investigation of Granger causality between energy consumption and economic growth) that describe the methods, samples, and other details related to the individual estimations done in the examined empirical papers. Data cover papers indexed by Scopus, published in economic journals, written in English, after year 2000. In addition, papers were manually filtered to only those that deal with Energy-Economy Nexus investigation and have at least 10 citations at (at the time of query - November 2015). This data are to be used to conduct meta-analysis - associated dataset was used in Hajko [1]. Early version of the dataset was used for multinomial logit estimation in Master thesis by Kociánová [2].

  15. Romantic attraction and adolescent smoking trajectories.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pollard, Michael S; Tucker, Joan S; Green, Harold D; Kennedy, David P; Go, Myong-Hyun

    2011-12-01

    Research on sexual orientation and substance use has established that lesbian, gay, and bisexual (LGB) individuals are more likely to smoke than heterosexuals. This analysis furthers the examination of smoking behaviors across sexual orientation groups by describing how same- and opposite-sex romantic attraction, and changes in romantic attraction, are associated with distinct six-year developmental trajectories of smoking. The National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health dataset is used to test our hypotheses. Multinomial logistic regressions predicting smoking trajectory membership as a function of romantic attraction were separately estimated for men and women. Romantic attraction effects were found only for women. The change from self-reported heterosexual attraction to lesbian or bisexual attraction was more predictive of higher smoking trajectories than was a consistent lesbian or bisexual attraction, with potentially important differences between the smoking patterns of these two groups. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Demographic and Motivation Differences Among Online Sex Offenders by Type of Offense: An Exploration of Routine Activities Theories.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Navarro, Jordana N; Jasinski, Jana L

    2015-01-01

    This article presents an analysis of the relationship between online sexual offenders' demographic background and characteristics indicative of motivation and offense type. Specifically, we investigate whether these characteristics can distinguish different online sexual offender groups from one another as well as inform routine activity theorists on what potentially motivates perpetrators. Using multinomial logistic regression, this study found that online sexual offenders' demographic backgrounds and characteristics indicative of motivation do vary by offense types. Two important implications of this study are that the term "online sexual offender" encompasses different types of offenders, including some who do not align with mainstream media's characterization of "predators," and that the potential offender within routine activity theory can be the focus of empirical investigation rather than taken as a given in research.

  17. Customization in prescribing for bipolar disorder.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hodgkin, Dominic; Volpe-Vartanian, Joanna; Merrick, Elizabeth L; Horgan, Constance M; Nierenberg, Andrew A; Frank, Richard G; Lee, Sue

    2012-06-01

    For many disorders, patient heterogeneity requires physicians to customize their treatment to each patient's needs. We test for the existence of customization in physicians' prescribing for bipolar disorder, using data from a naturalistic clinical effectiveness trial of bipolar disorder treatment (STEP-BD), which did not constrain physician prescribing. Multinomial logit is used to model the physician's choice among five combinations of drug classes. We find that our observed measure of the patient's clinical status played only a limited role in the choice among drug class combinations, even for conditions such as mania that are expected to affect class choice. However, treatment of a patient with given characteristics differed widely depending on which physician was seen. The explanatory power of the model was low. There was variation within each physician's prescribing, but the results do not suggest a high degree of customization in physicians' prescribing, based on our measure of clinical status. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  18. Seroprevalence and Risk Factors of Toxoplasma gondii Infection in Buffaloes, Sheep and Goats in Yunnan Province, Southwestern China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fengcai ZOU

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Background: The seroprevalence of Toxoplasma gondii infection in buffaloes, sheep and goats in Yunnan Province, southwestern China was conducted between May 2012 and December 2013.Methods: A total of 973 (427 buffaloes, 154 sheep and 392 goats serum samples were collected from seven administrative regions of Yunnan Province, and exam­ined for T. gondii antibodies by indirect hemagglutination (IHA test. Some risk fac­tors related to species, age, gender and geographical origin were determined using a multinomial logistic regression.Results: The overall seroprevalence of T. gondii in ruminant species was estimated at 11.9%. The final logistic regression model demonstrated that host species and geographical origin were the main risk factors associated with T. gondii infection (P﹤0.05.Conclusion: Taken together, the results of the present study revealed a high expo­sure to T. gondii in ruminant species in Yunnan Province, which has an important implication for public health.

  19. mixtools: An R Package for Analyzing Mixture Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tatiana Benaglia

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available The mixtools package for R provides a set of functions for analyzing a variety of finite mixture models. These functions include both traditional methods, such as EM algorithms for univariate and multivariate normal mixtures, and newer methods that reflect some recent research in finite mixture models. In the latter category, mixtools provides algorithms for estimating parameters in a wide range of different mixture-of-regression contexts, in multinomial mixtures such as those arising from discretizing continuous multivariate data, in nonparametric situations where the multivariate component densities are completely unspecified, and in semiparametric situations such as a univariate location mixture of symmetric but otherwise unspecified densities. Many of the algorithms of the mixtools package are EM algorithms or are based on EM-like ideas, so this article includes an overview of EM algorithms for finite mixture models.

  20. Nonparametric Bayes Modeling of Multivariate Categorical Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunson, David B; Xing, Chuanhua

    2012-01-01

    Modeling of multivariate unordered categorical (nominal) data is a challenging problem, particularly in high dimensions and cases in which one wishes to avoid strong assumptions about the dependence structure. Commonly used approaches rely on the incorporation of latent Gaussian random variables or parametric latent class models. The goal of this article is to develop a nonparametric Bayes approach, which defines a prior with full support on the space of distributions for multiple unordered categorical variables. This support condition ensures that we are not restricting the dependence structure a priori. We show this can be accomplished through a Dirichlet process mixture of product multinomial distributions, which is also a convenient form for posterior computation. Methods for nonparametric testing of violations of independence are proposed, and the methods are applied to model positional dependence within transcription factor binding motifs.

  1. Use of Home- and Community-Based Services in Taiwan's National 10-Year Long-Term Care Plan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Hsiao-Wei; Tu, Yu-Kang; Kuo, Po-Hsiu; Chen, Ya-Mei

    2018-05-01

    We aimed to understand the relationships between care recipients' profiles and home- and community-based services (HCBS use patterns. Data were from the 2010 to 2013 Long-Term Care Service Management System in Taiwan ( N = 78,205). We used latent class analysis and multinomial logistic regression analyses. Three HCBS use patterns were found. Care recipients who lived alone, lived in less urbanized areas, and had instrumental activities of daily living disabilities were more likely to be in the home-based personal care group. Those in the home-based personal and medical care group were more likely than others to have a primary caregiver. Care recipients who had poorer abilities at basic activities of daily living and cognitive function, better household income, and lived in a more urbanized area were more likely to be in the non-personal care multiple services group. The findings suggest that policymakers alleviate barriers to accessing various patterns of HCBS should be encouraged.

  2. Propensity for Voluntary Travel Behavior Changes: An Experimental Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Meloni, Italo; Sanjust, Benedetta; Sottile, Eleonora

    2013-01-01

    In this paper we analyze individual propensity to voluntary travel behavior change combining concepts from theory of change with the methodologies deriving from behavioral models. In particular, following the theory of voluntary changes, we set up a two-week panel survey including soft measure...... implementation, which consisted of providing car users with a personalized travel plan after the first week of observation (before) and using the second week to monitoring the post-behavior (after). These data have then been used to estimate a Mixed Logit for the choice to use a personal vehicle or a light metro......; and a Multinomial Logit for the decision to change behavior. Results from both models show the relevance of providing information about available alternatives to individuals while promoting voluntary travel behavioral change....

  3. Modeling the Perceptions and Preferences of Pedestrians on Crossing Facilities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hongwei Guo

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Pedestrian’s street-crossing behaviour has a significant effect on traffic performance and safety. The crossing behaviour is determined by human factors and environmental factors. Aiming at examining the pedestrian perceptions toward crossing facilities and preferences for crossing locations, an observational study of pedestrian crossing behaviour at urban street is conducted. The perceptions and preferences of pedestrians are collected using stated preference technique. A specific questionnaire is designed to conduct the stated preference survey. A multinomial logit model is proposed to describe the perceptions and preferences of pedestrians on crossing facilities and locations. The sensitivity analysis is performed to discuss the influence of various factors on crossing behaviour. Then the relationship between crossing locations and crossing distances is analyzed by a new proposed method. With the theoretical analysis, the engineering solutions considering pedestrian behaviour are suggested. The results are helpful to design human-centered crossing facilities in urban traffic.

  4. Environmental regulations and plant exit: A logit analysis based on established panel data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bioern, E; Golombek, R; Raknerud, A

    1995-12-01

    This publication uses a model to study the relationship between environmental regulations and plant exit. It has the main characteristics of a multinomial qualitative response model of the logit type, but also has elements of a Markov chain model. The model uses Norwegian panel data for establishments in three manufacturing sectors with high shares of units which have been under strict environmental regulations. In two of the sectors, the exit probability of non-regulated establishments is about three times higher than for regulated ones. It is also found that the probability of changing regulation status from non-regulated to regulated depends significantly on economic factors. In particular, establishments with weak profitability are the most likely to become subject to environmental regulation. 12 refs., 2 figs., 6 tabs.

  5. Examining Online Shopping Services in Relation to Experience and Frequency of Using Internet Retailing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alin OPREANA

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available E-shopping has the potential to replace traditional in-store shopping. It is well perceived that information and communication technologies have great impacts on modern society - they are changing how and where we work, shop, and in general terms how we live our lives. In this study, we use a survey instrument to examine the association between experience level with Internet and e-shopping and consumers’ frequency of online purchasing, while considering sex as a passive influencer. We study these relationships in a multinomial logistic regression model that is aimed at online retailers to help them improve their understanding of their consumers’ characteristics and propensity to buy through Internet retailing. Tracking the online journey of consumers will help enhance the attractiveness of this new retailing medium to current and potential customers.

  6. Making difficult decisions: the role of quality of care in choosing a nursing home.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pesis-Katz, Irena; Phelps, Charles E; Temkin-Greener, Helena; Spector, William D; Veazie, Peter; Mukamel, Dana B

    2013-05-01

    We investigated how quality of care affects choosing a nursing home. We examined nursing home choice in California, Ohio, New York, and Texas in 2001, a period before the federal Nursing Home Compare report card was published. Thus, consumers were less able to observe clinical quality or clinical quality was masked. We modeled nursing home choice by estimating a conditional multinomial logit model. In all states, consumers were more likely to choose nursing homes of high hotel services quality but not clinical care quality. Nursing home choice was also significantly associated with shorter distance from prior residence, not-for-profit status, and larger facility size. In the absence of quality report cards, consumers choose a nursing home on the basis of the quality dimensions that are easy for them to observe, evaluate, and apply to their situation. Future research should focus on identifying the quality information that offers the most value added to consumers.

  7. Venues for Meeting Sex Partners and Partner HIV Risk Characteristics: HIV Prevention Trials Network (HPTN064) Women's HIV Seroincidence Study (ISIS).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roman Isler, M; Golin, C; Wang, J; Hughes, J; Justman, J; Haley, D; Kuo, I; Adimora, A; Chege, W; Hodder, S

    2016-06-01

    Identifying venues where women meet sexual partners, particular partners who increase women's risk of acquiring HIV, could inform prevention efforts. We categorized venues where women enrolled in HPTN 064 reported meeting their last three sex partners as: (1) Formal, (2) Public, (3) Private, and (4) Virtual spaces. We used multinomial logistic regression to assess the association between these venues and women's individual characteristics and reports of their partners' HIV risk characteristics. The 2099 women reported meeting 3991 partners, 51 % at Public, 30 % Private, 17 % Formal and 3 % at Virtual venues. Women meeting partners at Formal venues reported more education and condom use than women meeting partners at other venues. Fewer partners met through Formal venues had "high" risk characteristics for HIV than through other venues and hence may pose less risk of HIV transmission. HIV prevention interventions can help women choose partners with fewer risk characteristics across all venue types.

  8. Optimal Hedging and Pricing of Equity-Linked Life Insurance Contracts in a Discrete-Time Incomplete Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Norman Josephy

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available We present a method of optimal hedging and pricing of equity-linked life insurance products in an incomplete discrete-time financial market. A pure endowment life insurance contract with guarantee is used as an example. The financial market incompleteness is caused by the assumption that the underlying risky asset price ratios are distributed in a compact interval, generalizing the assumptions of multinomial incomplete market models. For a range of initial hedging capitals for the embedded financial option, we numerically solve an optimal hedging problem and determine a risk-return profile of each optimal non-self-financing hedging strategy. The fair price of the insurance contract is determined according to the insurer's risk-return preferences. Illustrative numerical results of testing our algorithm on hypothetical insurance contracts are documented. A discussion and a test of a hedging strategy recalibration technique for long-term contracts are presented.

  9. The integration of object levels and their content: a theory of global/local processing and related hemispheric differences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hübner, Ronald; Volberg, Gregor

    2005-06-01

    This article presents and tests the authors' integration hypothesis of global/local processing, which proposes that at early stages of processing, the identities of global and local units of a hierarchical stimulus are represented separately from information about their respective levels and that, therefore, identity and level information have to be integrated at later stages. It further states that the cerebral hemispheres differ in their capacities for these binding processes. Three experiments are reported in which the integration hypothesis was tested. Participants had to identify a letter at a prespecified level with the viewing duration restricted by a mask. False reporting of the letter at the nontarget level was predicted to occur more often when the integration of identity and level could fail. This was the case. Moreover, visual-field effects occurred, as expected. Finally, a multinomial model was constructed and fitted to the data. ((c) 2005 APA, all rights reserved).

  10. [Depression Symptoms of Mothers and Fathers of Persons with Schizophrenia].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexandrowicz, Rainer W; König, Daniel; Unger, Annemarie; Klug, Günter; Soulier, Nathalie; Freidl, Marion; Friedrich, Fabian

    2016-05-01

    The purpose of the present study was to investigate if depression symptomatology of patients' parents is predicted by the symptoms of schizophrenia. 101 mothers and 101 fathers of the same patients suffering from schizophrenia were included into this study. Parents filled in the "Beck Depression Inventory". Patients were assessed by means of the "Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale". For statistical analyses a Multidimensional Random Coefficients Multinomial Logit Model was applied. We found a significant positive association between negative symptoms and depression severity of fathers and mothers. Further, a significant positive association between positive symptoms and depression severity of fathers, but not of mothers was found. Our results show that depression of mothers and of fathers is associated with symptoms of schizophrenia even when controlling for potential predictors. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

  11. Multivariate methods and forecasting with IBM SPSS statistics

    CERN Document Server

    Aljandali, Abdulkader

    2017-01-01

    This is the second of a two-part guide to quantitative analysis using the IBM SPSS Statistics software package; this volume focuses on multivariate statistical methods and advanced forecasting techniques. More often than not, regression models involve more than one independent variable. For example, forecasting methods are commonly applied to aggregates such as inflation rates, unemployment, exchange rates, etc., that have complex relationships with determining variables. This book introduces multivariate regression models and provides examples to help understand theory underpinning the model. The book presents the fundamentals of multivariate regression and then moves on to examine several related techniques that have application in business-orientated fields such as logistic and multinomial regression. Forecasting tools such as the Box-Jenkins approach to time series modeling are introduced, as well as exponential smoothing and naïve techniques. This part also covers hot topics such as Factor Analysis, Dis...

  12. Discrimination and substance use disorders among Latinos: the role of gender, nativity, and ethnicity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otiniano Verissimo, Angie Denisse; Grella, Christine E; Amaro, Hortensia; Gee, Gilbert C

    2014-08-01

    We examined the relationship between discrimination and substance use disorders among a diverse sample of Latinos. We also investigated whether the relationship between discrimination and substance use disorders varied by gender, nativity, and ethnicity. Our analyses focused on 6294 Latinos who participated in the National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions from 2004 to 2005. We used multinomial logistic regression to examine the association between discrimination and substance use disorders. Discrimination was significantly associated with increased odds of alcohol and drug use disorders among Latinos. However, the relationship between discrimination and substance use disorders varied by gender, nativity, and ethnicity. Discrimination was associated with increased odds of alcohol and drug use disorders for certain groups, such as women, US-born Latinos, and Mexicans, but this relationship did not follow the same pattern for other subgroups. It is important to determine which subgroups among Latinos may be particularly vulnerable to the negative effects of discrimination to address their needs.

  13. A Longitudinal Study of Work After Retirement: Examining Predictors of Bridge Employment, Continued Career Employment, and Retirement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennett, Misty M; Beehr, Terry A; Lepisto, Lawrence R

    2016-09-01

    Older employees are increasingly accepting bridge employment, which occurs when older workers take employment for pay after they retire from their main career. This study examined predictors of workers' decisions to engage in bridge employment versus full retirement and career employment. A national sample of 482 older people in the United States was surveyed regarding various work-related and nonwork related predictors of retirement decisions, and their retirement status was measured 5 years later. In bivariate analyses, both work-related variables (career goal achievement and experienced pressure to retire) and nonwork-related variables (psychological distress and traditional gender role orientation) predicted taking bridge employment, but in multinomial logistic regression, only nonwork variables had unique effects. Few predictors differentiated the bridge employed and fully retired groups. Nonwork variables were salient in making the decision to retire, and bridge employment may be conceptually more similar to full retirement than to career employment. © The Author(s) 2016.

  14. Determinants of emergency contraception non-use among women in unplanned or ambivalent pregnancies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Osmara Alves dos Santos

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Objective To analyze the determinants of emergency contraception non-use among women in unplanned and ambivalent pregnancies. Method Cross-sectional study with a probabilistic sample of 366 pregnant women from 12 primary health care units in the city of São Paulo, Brazil. A multinomial logistic regression was performed, comparing three groups: women who used emergency contraception to prevent ongoing pregnancies (reference; women who made no use of emergency contraception, but used other contraceptive methods; and women who made no use of any contraceptive methods at all. Results Cohabitation with a partner was the common determinant of emergency contraception non-use. No pregnancy risk awareness, ambivalent pregnancies and no previous use of emergency contraception also contributed to emergency contraception non-use. Conclusion Apart from what is pointed out in the literature, knowledge of emergency contraception and the fertile period were not associated to its use.

  15. Risk Factors for Knee Injuries in Children 8-15 Years

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Junge, Tina; Runge, Lisbeth; Juul-Kristensen, Birgit

    2016-01-01

    .14). For overuse knee injuries, intrinsic risk factors were sex (girls OR 1.38), and previous knee injury (OR 1.78), while participation in soccer (OR 1.64), handball (OR 1.95), basket (OR 2.07), rhythmic (OR 1.98), and tumbling gymnastics (OR 1.74) were additional risk factors. For both injury types, sport...... and participation in soccer, handball, basket, rhythmic and tumbling gymnastics. Further risk factors for both types of injury were participation in sports above two times/week. Although growth-related overuse knee injuries are a self-limiting condition, a major part of children are affected by these injuries...... intrinsic and extrinsic factors for risk of these injuries. METHODS: Weekly musculoskeletal pain, sport participation and sports type were reported by 1326 school children (8-15 years). Knee injuries were classified as traumatic or overuse. Multinomial logistic regression was used for analyses. RESULTS...

  16. A Study of Commuters’ Decision-Making When Delaying Departure for Work-Home Trips

    Science.gov (United States)

    Que, Fangjie; Wang, Wei

    2017-12-01

    Studies on the travel behaviors and patterns of residents are important to the arrangement of urban layouts and urban traffic planning. However, research on the characteristics of the decision-making behavior regarding departure time is not fully expanded yet. In this paper, the research focuses on commuters’ decision-making behavior regarding departure delay. According to the 2013 travel survey data of Suzhou City, a nested logit (NL) model was built to represent the probabilities of individual choices. Parameter calibration was conducted, so that the significant factors influencing the departure delay were obtained. Ultimately, the results of the NL model indicated that it performed better and with higher precision, compared to the traditional multinomial logit (MNL) model.

  17. Prevalence and distribution of inactivity and weight excess in Spanish scholar children

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arturo Rodríguez-Hernández

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract This work aims to study the distribution of leisure time physical activity pattern and weight status of Spanish schoolchildren. The sample corresponds to 6,803 school-aged children (3,491 boys and 3,312 girls, who took part in the Spanish National Health Survey 2006, being representative of the Spanish scholar population. It has assessed their pattern of physical activity and weight status through international body mass index cut offs. The relationship between the variables studied has been established through a multinomial logistic regression analysis. Physical inactivity is more prevalent in children that exceed a healthy weight, and there are regional differences in the distribution of a sedentary lifestyle and weight excess, as well as in different age groups and sex. Globally, 49.7% of Spanish schoolchildren have an unhealthy leisure time physical activity pattern, and 28.9% of them exceed the recommended weight for their age.

  18. Early versus late rehabilitation for stroke survivors: A prospective study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Moshiur Rahman Khasru

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study was to examine the optimum time of rehabilitation initiation after stroke in terms of disabilities, mobility and fall risk assessment. Data were collected prospectively at seven tertiary level health care centers in Bangladesh during the 36 months period from 2013 to 2016. All respondents were divided into four groups based on the initiation of rehabilitation as: a 0-24 hours, b 25-72 hours, c 4-7 days and d 8-60 days. Results show that significant improvement on stroke recovery, disabilities reduction, improvement in mobility restriction and reduction of fall risks in all the four groups but more improvement was observed in 0-24 hour’s group during follow-up after 3 and 12 weeks. On multinomial logistic regression analysis, the independent factors shows the mobility restriction and fall risk were more in the younger patients, male gender, married, hemorrhagic lesion and bilateral stroke.

  19. Determinants of Sub-Sovereign Government Ratings In Europe

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    Nicolas JANNONE-BELLOT

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to identify the determinantsof the rating assigned to sub-sovereignentities in Germany, Austria, Belgium, France,Italy and Spain, using a total of 92 territorial entitiesfor the 1989-2012 period. Multinomial orderedprobit estimation models were estimatedfor each specifi cation and agency.We conclude that the country’s rating is oneof the most important determinants of regionalgovernment’s ratings with a positive infl uence(as expected, and that the country debt/GDPratio is a stronger determinant for regions thantheir own indebtedness with a negative sign.Other relevant variables are population growthrate, unemployment rate, elderly people weight,regional public expenditure weight and size. Additionally,economic variables, such as country’srating and population growth are more importantto Fitch; whereas budget variables and size variablesare more relevant to Moody’s. Debt variablesand elderly people ratio are more importantto S&P.

  20. Trajectories of suicidal ideation over 6 months among 482 outpatients with bipolar disorder

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Köhler-Forsberg, Ole; Madsen, Trine; Behrendt-Møller, Ida

    2017-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: Suicidal ideation occurs frequently among individuals with bipolar disorder; however, its course and persistence over time remains unclear. We aimed to investigate 6-months trajectories of suicidal ideation among adults with bipolar disorder. METHODS: The Bipolar CHOICE study...... randomized 482 outpatients with bipolar disorder to 6 months of lithium- or quetiapine-based treatment including other psychotropic medications as clinically indicated. Participants were asked at 9 visits about suicidal ideation using the Concise Health Risk Tracking scale. We performed latent Growth Mixture...... Modelling analysis to empirically identify trajectories of suicidal ideation. Multinomial logistic regression analyses were applied to estimate associations between trajectories and potential predictors. RESULTS: We identified four distinct trajectories. The Moderate-Stable group represented 11...

  1. The validity of dependence as a health outcome measure in Alzheimer's disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spackman, D Eldon; Kadiyala, Srikanth; Neumann, Peter J; Veenstra, David L; Sullivan, Sean D

    2013-05-01

    Relating to Alzheimer's disease (AD), dependence has been defined as the increased need for assistance due to deterioration in cognition, physical functioning, and behavior. Our objective was to evaluate the association between dependence and measures of functional impairment. Data were compiled by the National Alzheimer's Coordinating Center. We used multinomial logistic regression to estimate the association between dependence and cognition, physical functioning, and behavior. The independent association with dependence was positive. Dependence was most strongly associated with physical functioning. A secondary analysis suggested a strong association of dependence with multiple impairments, as measured by the interaction terms, in more severe patients. We find that dependence is simultaneously associated with physical functioning, cognition, and behavior, which support the construct validity of dependence. Dependence might be a more simple measure to explain the multifaceted disease progression of AD and convey the increasing need for care.

  2. The Validity of Dependence as a Health Outcome Measure in Alzheimer’s Disease

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spackman, D. Eldon; Kadiyala, Srikanth; Neumann, Peter J.; Veenstra, David L.; Sullivan, Sean D.

    2013-01-01

    Background Relating to Alzheimer’s disease (AD), dependence has been defined as the increased need for assistance due to deterioration in cognition, physical functioning, and behavior. Our objective was to evaluate the association between dependence and measures of functional impairment. Methods Data were compiled by the National Alzheimer’s Coordinating Center. We used multinomial logistic regression to estimate the association between dependence and cognition, physical functioning, and behavior. Results The independent association with dependence was positive. Dependence was most strongly associated with physical functioning. A secondary analysis suggested a strong association of dependence with multiple impairments, as measured by the interaction terms, in more severe patients. Conclusions We find that dependence is simultaneously associated with physical functioning, cognition, and behavior, which support the construct validity of dependence. Dependence might be a more simple measure to explain the multifaceted disease progression of AD and convey the increasing need for care. PMID:23512996

  3. The View From the Bottom: Relative Deprivation and Bullying Victimization in Canadian Adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Napoletano, Anthony; Elgar, Frank J; Saul, Grace; Dirks, Melanie; Craig, Wendy

    2016-12-01

    We investigated the relation between relative deprivation (RD)-disparity in affluence between adolescents and their more affluent schoolmates-and involvement in bullying among 23,383 students (aged 9-19) in 413 schools that participated in the 2010 Canadian Health Behavior in School-Aged Children survey. Students reported family affluence and frequency of bullying victimization and perpetration during the previous 2 months. Using the Yitzhaki index of RD and multinomial logistic regression analysis, we found that RD positively related to three types of bullying victimization (physical, relational, and cyberbullying) and to two types of perpetration (relational and cyberbullying) after differences in absolute affluence were held constant. These findings suggest that RD uniquely contributes to risk of bullying involvement. © The Author(s) 2015.

  4. Barriers to participation in vocational orientation programmes among prisoners

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dorien Brosens

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available This study investigates the barriers to prisoners’ participation in vocational education, as well as the predictors of different types of barriers. Survey data derived from a project in a remand prison in Belgium (N=468 provided the empirical evidence for the analyses. The results indicate that facing situational and informational barriers are most common. Based on the different kinds of barriers, various types of non-participants can be distinguished and multinomial logistic regression analyses are conducted to identify in what way participants of vocational education differ from various types of non-participants. For instance, prisoners with a poor understanding of the Dutch language and those who never/rarely receive visitors participate less in vocational education as they are more likely to be confronted with informational barriers. We conclude this article by discussing paths for future research and implications for policy and practice to anticipate the barriers for those who want to participate in vocational education.

  5. Predicting Time Spent in Treatment in a Sample of Danish Survivors of Child Sexual Abuse.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fletcher, Shelley; Elklit, Ask; Shevlin, Mark; Armour, Cherie

    2017-07-01

    The aim of this study was to identify significant predictors of length of time spent in treatment. In a convenience sample of 439 Danish survivors of child sexual abuse, predictors of time spent in treatment were examined. Assessments were conducted on a 6-month basis over a period of 18 months. A multinomial logistic regression analysis revealed that the experience of neglect in childhood and having experienced rape at any life stage were associated with less time in treatment. Higher educational attainment and being male were associated with staying in treatment for longer periods of time. These factors may be important for identifying those at risk of terminating treatment prematurely. It is hoped that a better understanding of the factors that predict time spent in treatment will help to improve treatment outcomes for individuals who are at risk of dropping out of treatment at an early stage.

  6. Latent Class Analysis of Criminal Social Identity in a Prison Sample

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Boduszek Daniel

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available This study aimed to examine the number of latent classes of criminal social identity that exist among male recidivistic prisoners. Latent class analysis was used to identify homogeneous groups of criminal social identity. Multinomial logistic regression was used to interpret the nature of the latent classes, or groups, by estimating the associationsto number of police arrests, recidivism, and violent offending while controlling for current age. The best fitting latent class model was a five-class solution: ‘High criminal social identity’ (17%, ‘High Centrality, Moderate Affect, Low Ties’ (21.7%, ‘Low Centrality, Moderate Affect, High Ties’ (13.3%,‘Low Cognitive, High Affect, Low Ties’ (24.6%, and ‘Low criminal social identity’ (23.4%. Each of the latent classes was predicted by differing external variables. Criminal social identity is best explained by five homogenous classes that display qualitative and quantitative differences.

  7. Changes in Illegal Behavior During Emerging Adulthood

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Badiah Haffejee

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Emerging adulthood marks a critical developmental juncture during which some individuals disengage from the illegal behavior of their adolescence while others continue to use substances and commit crimes. While risk factors for delinquency during adolescence are well studied, factors that influence persisting or desisting from illegal activities during emerging adulthood have not been fully explored. This mixed methods study utilizes a sample of college students aged 18-25 (N=74 and examines factors differentiating those who abstained from illegal behaviors, desisted from illegal behaviors, and persisted in illegal behaviors. Multinomial logistic regression models indicated peers offending and hours spent studying predicted desisting and peers offending predicted persisting (compared to the abstaining group. Three qualitative themes: family and peer bonds, morals and values, and fear of consequences further explained factors influencing emerging adults’ persisting and desisting choices. Implications for social work practice are explored.

  8. Assessing Tourists’ Preferences for Recreational Trips in National and Natural Parks as a Premise for Long-Term Sustainable Management Plans

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diana E. Dumitras

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Sustainable tourism management plans rely on relevant and consistent information about factors that can influence the decision to visit a protected area. This paper uses the choice experiment method to investigate tourists’ preferences with regard to recreational trip characteristics in national and natural parks in Romania. An on-site survey questionnaire was administered to visitors. The multinomial logit model was employed to investigate the preference orderings of the identified groups of recreational users. Overall, results indicate that tourists gain benefits after visiting the parks. Main preference differences were found for information sources and location of campsites. Visitors who stated that the park was the main trip destination were willing to have access to more information sources, the marks on trails being insufficient. Camping is preferred only in organized places, expressing the concern for environmental protection. The results of this study have management implications, highlighting the importance of assessing tourists’ preferences as a foundation for developing sustainable tourism strategies.

  9. Bayesian Kernel Mixtures for Counts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Canale, Antonio; Dunson, David B

    2011-12-01

    Although Bayesian nonparametric mixture models for continuous data are well developed, there is a limited literature on related approaches for count data. A common strategy is to use a mixture of Poissons, which unfortunately is quite restrictive in not accounting for distributions having variance less than the mean. Other approaches include mixing multinomials, which requires finite support, and using a Dirichlet process prior with a Poisson base measure, which does not allow smooth deviations from the Poisson. As a broad class of alternative models, we propose to use nonparametric mixtures of rounded continuous kernels. An efficient Gibbs sampler is developed for posterior computation, and a simulation study is performed to assess performance. Focusing on the rounded Gaussian case, we generalize the modeling framework to account for multivariate count data, joint modeling with continuous and categorical variables, and other complications. The methods are illustrated through applications to a developmental toxicity study and marketing data. This article has supplementary material online.

  10. Promoting Informal and Professional Help-Seeking for Adolescent Dating Violence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hedge, Jasmine M.; Hudson-Flege, Matthew D.; McDonell, James R.

    2016-01-01

    The present study examined factors that differentiate adolescents with varied intentions of informal and professional help-seeking for dating violence. Help-seeking intentions among 518 ethnically diverse adolescents from a rural, southern county who participated in a longitudinal study of teen dating violence were categorized into three groups: adolescents unlikely to seek any help, adolescents likely to seek only informal help, and adolescents likely to seek informal and professional help. Multinomial logistic regression found that gender, family functioning, problem-solving competency, dating status, having an adult to talk to about a dating relationship, and acceptability of family violence significantly predicted membership in the help-seeking groups. Implications for promoting informal and professional help-seeking and recommendations for future research are discussed. PMID:28584387

  11. Irrigation water sources and irrigation application methods used by U.S. plant nursery producers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paudel, Krishna P.; Pandit, Mahesh; Hinson, Roger

    2016-02-01

    We examine irrigation water sources and irrigation methods used by U.S. nursery plant producers using nested multinomial fractional regression models. We use data collected from the National Nursery Survey (2009) to identify effects of different firm and sales characteristics on the fraction of water sources and irrigation methods used. We find that regions, sales of plants types, farm income, and farm age have significant roles in what water source is used. Given the fraction of alternative water sources used, results indicated that use of computer, annual sales, region, and the number of IPM practices adopted play an important role in the choice of irrigation method. Based on the findings from this study, government can provide subsidies to nursery producers in water deficit regions to adopt drip irrigation method or use recycled water or combination of both. Additionally, encouraging farmers to adopt IPM may enhance the use of drip irrigation and recycled water in nursery plant production.

  12. MANOVA, LDA, and FA criteria in clusters parameter estimation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stan Lipovetsky

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Multivariate analysis of variance (MANOVA and linear discriminant analysis (LDA apply such well-known criteria as the Wilks’ lambda, Lawley–Hotelling trace, and Pillai’s trace test for checking quality of the solutions. The current paper suggests using these criteria for building objectives for finding clusters parameters because optimizing such objectives corresponds to the best distinguishing between the clusters. Relation to Joreskog’s classification for factor analysis (FA techniques is also considered. The problem can be reduced to the multinomial parameterization, and solution can be found in a nonlinear optimization procedure which yields the estimates for the cluster centers and sizes. This approach for clustering works with data compressed into covariance matrix so can be especially useful for big data.

  13. Sensitivity of Raman spectroscopy to normal patient variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vargis, Elizabeth; Byrd, Teresa; Logan, Quinisha; Khabele, Dineo; Mahadevan-Jansen, Anita

    2011-11-01

    Many groups have used Raman spectroscopy for diagnosing cervical dysplasia; however, there have been few studies looking at the effect of normal physiological variations on Raman spectra. We assess four patient variables that may affect normal Raman spectra: Race/ethnicity, body mass index (BMI), parity, and socioeconomic status. Raman spectra were acquired from a diverse population of 75 patients undergoing routine screening for cervical dysplasia. Classification of Raman spectra from patients with a normal cervix is performed using sparse multinomial logistic regression (SMLR) to determine if any of these variables has a significant effect. Results suggest that BMI and parity have the greatest impact, whereas race/ethnicity and socioeconomic status have a limited effect. Incorporating BMI and obstetric history into classification algorithms may increase sensitivity and specificity rates of disease classification using Raman spectroscopy. Studies are underway to assess the effect of these variables on disease.

  14. Environmental Sound Perception: Metadescription and Modeling Based on Independent Primary Studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephen McAdams

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the study is to transpose and extend to a set of environmental sounds the notion of sound descriptors usually used for musical sounds. Four separate primary studies dealing with interior car sounds, air-conditioning units, car horns, and closing car doors are considered collectively. The corpus formed by these initial stimuli is submitted to new experimental studies and analyses, both for revealing metacategories and for defining more precisely the limits of each of the resulting categories. In a second step, the new structure is modeled: common and specific dimensions within each category are derived from the initial results and new investigations of audio features are performed. Furthermore, an automatic classifier based on two audio descriptors and a multinomial logistic regression procedure is implemented and validated with the corpus.

  15. Relationships between self-reported unfair treatment and prescription medication use, illicit drug use, and alcohol dependence among Filipino Americans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gee, Gilbert C; Delva, Jorge; Takeuchi, David T

    2007-05-01

    We examined associations between self-reported unfair treatment and prescription medication use, illicit drug use, and alcohol dependence. We used data from the Filipino American Community Epidemiological Survey, a cross-sectional investigation involving 2217 Filipino Americans interviewed in 1998-1999. Multinomial logistic and negative binomial regression analyses were used in assessing associations between unfair treatment and the substance use categories. Reports of unfair treatment were associated with prescription drug use, illicit drug use, and alcohol dependence after control for age, gender, location of residence, employment status, educational level, ethnic identity level, nativity, language spoken, marital status, and several health conditions. Unfair treatment may contribute to illness and subsequent use of prescription medications. Furthermore, some individuals may use illicit drugs and alcohol to cope with the stress associated with such treatment. Addressing the antecedents of unfair treatment may be a potential intervention route.

  16. EL MODELO DE REGRESIÓN LOGÍSTICA PARA EL CASO EN QUE LA VARIABLE DE RESPUESTA PUEDE ASUMIR UNO DE TRES NIVELES: ESTIMACIONES, PRUEBAS DE HIPÓTESIS Y SELECCIÓN DE MODELOS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Humberto Llinás Solano

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Este tratado sigue el siguiente esquema: se presenta, primero el vector score y la matriz de información de los modelos logístico y saturado multinomial con tres posibles niveles de respuesta a partir de la primera y segunda derivada de la función de verosimilitud respecto a los parámetros de los modelos; las relaciones entre el vector score y la matriz de información; la estandarización multivariante de las variables de entrada de cada modelo; las respectivas distribuciones asintóticas; las pruebas de comparación y selección de modelos que abarcan para la variable politómica con tres niveles los modelos logístico y saturado, logístico y submodelo, logístico con el modelo nulo, y logístico con el submodelo de una variable explicativa menos.

  17. The Context of Body Art

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Renata Clerici

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available The present study analyses factors associated with the propensity for piercing and tattooing among adolescents, from a survey conducted in 2007 in high schools in the Veneto Region (Northeast Italy. After some descriptive analyses, multinomial logistic regression models were applied to identify what predicts the practice of, interest in, or indifference to piercing and tattooing. Results show gender differences in the approach to body modification: For girls, body art is considered a mainstream activity involving younger cohorts; piercing and tattooing become a way of increasing their own body satisfaction. For boys, factors connected with the propensity for these practices are a low cultural background and the importance given to physical appearance. For both boys and girls, a significant aspect in defining attitudes toward body art practices is the values system: Values such as enjoyment, beauty, and youth, are found to be closely connected with a high propensity for these practices.

  18. Health Care Workers’ Risk Perceptions and Willingness to Report for Work during an Influenza Pandemic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Georges Dionne

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available The ability and willingness of health care workers to report for work during a pandemic are essential to pandemic response. The main contribution of this article is to examine the relationship between risk perception of personal and work activities and willingness to report for work during an influenza pandemic. Data were collected through a quantitative Web-based survey sent to health care workers on the island of Montreal. Respondents were asked about their perception of various risks to obtain index measures of risk perception. A multinomial logit model was applied for the probability estimations, and a factor analysis was conducted to compute risk perception indexes (scores. Risk perception associated with personal and work activities is a significant predictor of intended presence at work during an influenza pandemic. This means that correcting perceptual biases should be a public policy concern. These results have not been previously reported in the literature. Many organizational variables are also significant.

  19. EXTENDING THE DEEP PACKET INSPECTION MODEL TO THE GCC/MENA REGION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alfred H. Miller

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available This study seeks to explore extending the technology acceptance model (DPAM from a 2011 quantitative study—Modeling Intention to Use Deep Packet Inspection Technology in the United Arab Emirates, to the cyber security practitioner community of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC and greater Middle East North Africa (MENA Region. Analysis of regression between independent variable model factors of computer self efficacy, attitude toward ICT, perceived usefulness of ecommerce, intention to use ecommerce, societal trust and Internet filtration toward the dependent variable intention to use deep packet inspection, to determine parsimony, using confirmatory factor analysis (CFA, multinomial regression to assess correlation of independent and dependent variables, and assessment of the cross-suitability of DPAM across the MENA/GCC states through a MANOVA assessment. A qualitative component of the instrument enables collection of data about specific hardware and software deployed for deep packet inspection and cyber security systems.

  20. Implementation of self-rostering (the PRIO-project) Effects on working hours, recovery and health

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Garde, Anne Helene; Albertsen, Karen; Nabe Nielsen, Kirsten

    2012-01-01

    Objectives The aim of this study was to (i) investigate the consequences of self-rostering for working hours, recovery, and health, and (ii) elucidate the mechanisms through which recovery and health are affected. Methods Twenty eight workplaces were allocated to either an intervention or reference...... workplace reports of working hours (N=718) were obtained at baseline and 12 months later. The interaction term between intervention and time was tested in mixed models and multinomial logistic regression models. Results The odds ratio (OR) of having short [OR 4.8, 95 % confidence interval (95% CI) 1.......17, 95% CI -0.29– -0.04) and B (β= -0.17, 95% CI -0.27– -0.07). There were no effects on recovery and health in intervention C, and overall, there were no detrimental effects on recovery or health. The benefits of the intervention were not related to changes in working hours and did not differ by gender...

  1. Psychosocial job strain and risk of adverse birth outcomes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Ann Dyreborg; Hannerz, Harald; Juhl, Mette

    2013-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: A number of studies examined the effects of prenatal stress on birth outcomes with diverging and inconclusive results. We aimed to examine if working with high job strain during pregnancy measured in week 16 was associated with risk of giving birth to a child born preterm or small....../large for gestational age (SGA/LGA), and second, if social support affected any associations. DESIGN: Study population was 48 890 pregnancies from the Danish National Birth Cohort. Multinomial logistic regression estimated ORs. Covariates included: maternal age, BMI, parity, exercise, smoking, alcohol and coffee...... consumption, manual work, serious maternal disease, parental height and gestational age at interview. In accordance with Good Epidemiological Practice, a protocol outlined the study design before analyses were initiated. RESULTS: High job strain was associated with significantly lower odds of being born LGA...

  2. Quality and price--impact on patient satisfaction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pantouvakis, Angelos; Bouranta, Nancy

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to synthesize existing quality-measurement models and applies them to healthcare by combining a Nordic service-quality with an American service performance model. Results are based on a questionnaire survey of 1,298 respondents. Service quality dimensions were derived and related to satisfaction by employing a multinomial logistic model, which allows prediction and service improvement. Qualitative and empirical evidence indicates that customer satisfaction and service quality are multi-dimensional constructs, whose quality components, together with convenience and cost, influence the customer's overall satisfaction. The proposed model identifies important quality and satisfaction issues. It also enables transitions between different responses in different studies to be compared.

  3. Effect of prenatal mindfulness training on depressive symptom severity through 18-months postpartum: A latent profile analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Felder, Jennifer N; Roubinov, Danielle; Bush, Nicole R; Coleman-Phox, Kimberly; Vieten, Cassandra; Laraia, Barbara; Adler, Nancy E; Epel, Elissa

    2018-02-28

    We examined whether prenatal mindfulness training was associated with lower depressive symptoms through 18-months postpartum compared to treatment as usual (TAU). A controlled, quasi-experimental trial compared prenatal mindfulness training (MMT) to TAU. We collected depressive symptom data at post-intervention, 6-, and 18-months postpartum. Latent profile analysis identified depressive symptom profiles, and multinomial logistic regression examined whether treatment condition predicted profile. Three depressive symptom severity profiles emerged: none/minimal, mild, and moderate. Adjusting for relevant covariates, MMT participants were less likely than TAU participants to be in the moderate profile than the none/minimal profile (OR = 0.13, 95% CI = 0.03-0.54, p = .005). Prenatal mindfulness training may have benefits for depressive symptoms during the transition to parenthood. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  4. Work performance decrements are associated with Australian working conditions, particularly the demand to work longer hours.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holden, Libby; Scuffham, Paul A; Hilton, Michael F; Vecchio, Nerina N; Whiteford, Harvey A

    2010-03-01

    To demonstrate the importance of including a range of working conditions in models exploring the association between health- and work-related performance. The Australian Work Outcomes Research Cost-benefit study cross-sectional screening data set was used to explore health-related absenteeism and work performance losses on a sample of approximately 78,000 working Australians, including available demographic and working condition factors. Data collected using the World Health Organization Health and Productivity Questionnaire were analyzed with negative binomial logistic regression and multinomial logistic regressions for absenteeism and work performance, respectively. Hours expected to work, annual wage, and job insecurity play a vital role in the association between health- and work-related performance for both work attendance and self-reported work performance. Australian working conditions are contributing to both absenteeism and low work performance, regardless of health status.

  5. Equiprobable Growth Model and Growth Cycles: An Approximation to Persistence and Volatility

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    Zeus Salvador Hernández Veleros

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Este artículo presenta una aproximación novedosa al estudio de los ciclos de crecimiento, para lo cual se emplea la distribucion de probabilidad multinomial y el denominado modelo de crecimiento equiprobable. El estudio considera información de 142 economías durante el periodo 1950-2000, las cuales son agrupadas en siete clusters. El análisis planteado define tres regímenes de crecimiento y sus características (duración, volatilidad y correlación entre tales regímenes. A partir del ciclo de crecimiento estimado para cada cluster se obtiene una tendencia de largo plazo mediante el uso del valor esperado. Las hipótesis del artículo son examinadas mediante bootstrap.

  6. The role of respondents’ comfort for variance in stated choice surveys

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Emang, Diana; Lundhede, Thomas; Thorsen, Bo Jellesmark

    2017-01-01

    they complete surveys correlates with the error variance in stated choice models of their responses. Comfort-related variables are included in the scale functions of the scaled multinomial logit models. The hypothesis was that higher comfort reduces error variance in answers, as revealed by a higher scale...... parameter and vice versa. Information on, e.g., sleep and time since eating (higher comfort) correlated with scale heterogeneity, and produced lower error variance when controlled for in the model. That respondents’ comfort may influence choice behavior suggests that knowledge of the respondents’ activity......Preference elicitation among outdoor recreational users is subject to measurement errors that depend, in part, on survey planning. This study uses data from a choice experiment survey on recreational SCUBA diving to investigate whether self-reported information on respondents’ comfort when...

  7. Determinants of edible oil choice by households in Tamil Nadu, India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Govindaraj, Gurrappa Naidu; Suryaprakash, Satrasala

    2013-01-01

    This study investigated the major determinants that influence the choice of edible oils by households across geographical zones in Tamil Nadu state, India. The primary data from 1,000 sample households were collected using a structured pre-tested questionnaire. Multinomial logit model was fitted for determining the factors. The results revealed that education, income, and households with a history of health problems were the important determinants that influenced the choice of low-saturated-fat oils, whereas the larger size households and weaker section households preferred low-priced palm oil. Income and education levels in Tamil Nadu state surged ahead in recent years. In consonance to these changes the nontraditional low-saturated fat containing sunflower oil demand will increase in many folds in coming years. Hence, besides traditional oils, sunflower oil production has to be stepped up on "mission mode" through appropriate production programs to meet the present and future edible oil demand domestically.

  8. Analysis of composition of microbiomes: a novel method for studying microbial composition

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    Siddhartha Mandal

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Background: Understanding the factors regulating our microbiota is important but requires appropriate statistical methodology. When comparing two or more populations most existing approaches either discount the underlying compositional structure in the microbiome data or use probability models such as the multinomial and Dirichlet-multinomial distributions, which may impose a correlation structure not suitable for microbiome data. Objective: To develop a methodology that accounts for compositional constraints to reduce false discoveries in detecting differentially abundant taxa at an ecosystem level, while maintaining high statistical power. Methods: We introduced a novel statistical framework called analysis of composition of microbiomes (ANCOM. ANCOM accounts for the underlying structure in the data and can be used for comparing the composition of microbiomes in two or more populations. ANCOM makes no distributional assumptions and can be implemented in a linear model framework to adjust for covariates as well as model longitudinal data. ANCOM also scales well to compare samples involving thousands of taxa. Results: We compared the performance of ANCOM to the standard t-test and a recently published methodology called Zero Inflated Gaussian (ZIG methodology (1 for drawing inferences on the mean taxa abundance in two or more populations. ANCOM controlled the false discovery rate (FDR at the desired nominal level while also improving power, whereas the t-test and ZIG had inflated FDRs, in some instances as high as 68% for the t-test and 60% for ZIG. We illustrate the performance of ANCOM using two publicly available microbial datasets in the human gut, demonstrating its general applicability to testing hypotheses about compositional differences in microbial communities. Conclusion: Accounting for compositionality using log-ratio analysis results in significantly improved inference in microbiota survey data.

  9. Emotional attachment to personal tobacco packages might affect quitting behaviour. Results from a cross-sectional survey among tobacco users

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    Ingeborg Lund

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Background Emotional attachment to your brand of cigarettes or snus might imply a lower tendency to want to quit smoking or using snus. Aim: Investigate emotional attachment to the personal snus or cigarette pack, and its potential effect on quitting plans, among snus users and smokers. Methods A sample of 1625 smokers and 1626 snus users, aged 16-75, recruited from a web-panel, and weighted according to national statistics on smoking and snus use within gender, age and region. Mean age: 41 years, and 41% women. A principal component analysis showed that all positive feelings loaded on a single component, which was used in a multinomial adjusted regression, with a three-point quitting-plans variable as the dependent variable (no quitting plan, plan to quit during this month, plan to quit later. Adjustments were made for gender, age, education, tobacco product (cigarettes or snus, and last month quitting attempts. Results A relatively large minority (20-30% of smokers and snus users agreed fully or partly with statements expressing positive feelings related to buying and using their choice of tobacco brand. The exception was the statement “I like my current/regular pack”, which was endorsed by 65% of smokers and 75% of snus users. Adjusted multinomial regression showed that those who had less positive feelings related to their pack were more likely to have plans to quit tobacco within the next month (AOR=1.5, p< 0.001, or to have plans to quit at some later date (AOR=1.2, p< 0.001, than to have no quitting plans (ref. Other significant factors were gender and earlier quit attempts. Conclusions Emotional attachment to cigarette and snus brands and packages reduces the likelihood of having plans to quit tobacco, which might in turn result in lower actual quitting behaviour. Regulatory actions that reduce emotional attachment, e.g. standardised packaging, may potentially affect quitting behaviour.

  10. Physical and Temporal Characteristics of Under 19, Under 21 and Senior Male Beach Volleyball Players

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    Alexandre Medeiros, Rui Marcelino, Isabel Mesquita, José Manuel Palao

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available This study aimed to assess the effects of age groups and players’ role (blocker vs. defender specialist in beach volleyball in relation to physical and temporal variables, considering quality of opposition. 1101 rallies from Under 19 (U19, 933 rallies from Under 21 (U21, and 1480 rallies from senior (senior (Men’s Swatch World Championships, 2010-2011 were observed using video match analysis. Cluster analysis was used to set teams’ competitive levels and establish quality of opposition as “balanced”, “moderate balanced” and “unbalanced” games. The analyzed variables were: temporal (duration of set, total rest time, total work time, duration of rallies, rest time between rallies and physical (number of jumps and number of hits done by defenders and blockers characteristics. A one-way ANOVA, independent samples t-test and multinomial logistic regression were performed to analyze the variables studied. The analysis of temporal and physical characteristics showed differences considering age group, player’s role and quality of opposition. The duration of set, total rest time, and number of jumps done by defenders significantly increased from the U19 to senior category. Multinomial logistic regression showed that in: a balanced games, rest time between rallies was higher in seniors than in U19 or U21; number of jumps done by defenders was higher in seniors than in U19 and U21; b moderate balanced games, number of jumps done by defenders was higher in seniors than in U21 and number of jumps done by blockers was smaller in U19 than U21 or seniors; c unbalanced games, no significant findings were shown. This study suggests differences in players’ performances according to age group and players’ role in different qualities of opposition. The article provides reference values that can be useful to guide training and create scenarios that resemble a competition, taking into account physical and temporal characteristics.

  11. Inequality in the hepatitis B awareness level in rural residents from 7 provinces in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Juan; Li, Quan; Wang, Jian; Zhang, Guojie; Wangen, Knut R

    2017-05-04

    The hepatitis B (HB) awareness level is an important factor affecting the rates of HB virus vaccination. To better understand income-related inequalities in the HB awareness level, it is imperative to identify the sources of inequalities and assess the contribution rates of these influential factors. This study analyzed the unequal distribution of the HB awareness level and the contributions of various influential factors. We performed a cross-sectional household survey with questionnaire-based, face-to-face interviews in 7 Chinese provinces. Responses from 7271 respondents were used in this analysis. Multinomial logistic regression was used for the analysis of contributing factors, and the concentration index was used as a measure of HB awareness inequalities. The HB awareness level varied across participants with different characteristics. Multinomial logistic regression of the explanatory factors of the HB awareness level showed that several estimated coefficients and relative risk ratios were statistically significant for middle- and high-level awareness, except for sex, occupation, and household income. The concentration index of the HB knowledge score was 0.140, indicating inequality gradients disadvantageous to the poor. The contribution rate of socioeconomic factors was the largest (60.8%), followed by demographic characteristics (29.0%) and geographic factors (4.3%). Demographic, socioeconomic, and geographic factors are associated with the HB awareness inequality. Therefore, to reduce inequality, HB-related health education targeting individuals with low socioeconomic status should be performed. Less-developed provinces, especially with high proportions of poor residents, warrant particular attention. Our findings may be beneficial to improve the HB virus vaccination rate for individuals with low socioeconomic status.

  12. Constitution of traditional chinese medicine and related factors in women of childbearing age.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Qiao-Yu; Li, Jue; Zheng, Liang; Wang, Guang-Hua; Wang, Jing

    2018-04-01

    This study investigates the constitution of traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) among women who want to be pregnant in one year and explores factors related to TCM constitution. This study was conducted on women who participated in free preconception check-ups provided by the Zhabei District Maternity and Child Care Center in Shanghai, China. The information regarding the female demographic characteristics, physical condition, history of pregnancy and childbearing, diet and behavior, and social psychological factors was collected, and TCM constitution assessment was performed. The Chi-square test, t-test, logistic regression analysis, and multinomial logistic regression analysis were used to explore the related factors of TCM constitution. The participants in this study were aged 28.3 ± 3.0 years. Approximately fifty-five women in this study had Unbalanced Constitution. Logistic regression analysis showed that Shanghai residence, dysmenorrhea, gum bleeding, aversion to vegetables, preference for raw meat, job stress, and economic stress were significantly and negatively associated with Balanced Constitution. Multinomial logistic analysis showed that Shanghai residence was significantly associated with Yang-deficiency, Yin-deficiency, and Stagnant Qi Constitutions; gum bleeding was significantly associated with Yin-deficiency, Stagnant Blood, Stagnant Qi, and Inherited Special Constitutions; aversion to vegetables was significantly associated with Damp-heat Constitution; job stress was significantly associated with Yang-deficiency, Phlegm-dampness, Damp-heat, Stagnant Blood, and Stagnant Qi Constitutions; and economic stress was significantly associated with Yang-deficiency, and Stagnant Qi Constitutions. The application of TCM constitution to preconception care would be beneficial for early identification of potential TCM constitution risks and be beneficial for early intervention (e.g., health education, and dietary education), especially during the women who do

  13. Oral Microbiota and Risk for Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma in a High-Risk Area of China.

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    Xingdong Chen

    Full Text Available Poor oral health has been linked with an increased risk of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC. We investigated whether alteration of oral microbiota is associated with ESCC risk. Fasting saliva samples were collected from 87 incident and histopathologicallly diagnosed ESCC cases, 63 subjects with dysplasia and 85 healthy controls. All subjects were also interviewed with a questionnaire. V3-V4 region of 16S rRNA was amplified and sequenced by 454-pyrosequencing platform. Carriage of each genus was compared by means of multivariate-adjusted odds ratios derived from logistic regression model. Relative abundance was compared using Metastats method. Beta diversity was estimated using Unifrac and weighted Unifrac distances. Principal coordinate analysis (PCoA was applied to ordinate dissimilarity matrices. Multinomial logistic regression was used to compare the coordinates between different groups. ESCC subjects had an overall decreased microbial diversity compared to control and dysplasia subjects (P<0.001. Decreased carriage of genera Lautropia, Bulleidia, Catonella, Corynebacterium, Moryella, Peptococcus and Cardiobacterium were found in ESCC subjects compared to non-ESCC subjects. Multinomial logistic regression analyses on PCoA coordinates also revealed that ESCC subjects had significantly different levels for several coordinates compared to non-ESCC subjects. In conclusion, we observed a correlation between altered salivary bacterial microbiota and ESCC risk. The results of our study on the saliva microbiome are of particular interest as it reflects the shift in microbial communities. Further studies are warranted to verify this finding, and if being verified, to explore the underlying mechanisms.

  14. The status of diabetes control in Kurdistan province, west of Iran.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Esmailnasab, Nader; Afkhamzadeh, Abdorrahim; Roshani, Daem; Moradi, Ghobad

    2013-09-17

    Based on some estimation more than two million peoples in Iran are affected by Type 2 diabetes. The present study was designed to evaluate the status of diabetes control among Type 2 diabetes patients in Kurdistan, west of Iran and its associated factors. In our cross sectional study conducted in 2010, 411 Type 2 diabetes patients were randomly recruited from Sanandaj, Capital of Kurdistan. Chi square test was used in univariate analysis to address the association between HgAlc and FBS status and other variables. The significant results from Univariate analysis were entered in multivariate analysis and multinomial logistic regression model. In 38% of patients, FBS was in normal range (70-130) and in 47% HgA1c was <7% which is normal range for HgA1c. In univariate analysis, FBS level was associated with educational levels (P=0.001), referral style (P=0.001), referral time (P=0.009), and insulin injection (P=0.016). In addition, HgA1c had a relationship with sex (P=0.023), age (P=0.035), education (P=0.001), referral style (P=0.001), and insulin injection (P=0.008). After using multinomial logistic regression for significant results of univariate analysis, it was found that FBS was significantly associated with referral style. In addition HgA1c was significantly associated with referral style and Insulin injection. Although some of patients were under the coverage of specialized cares, but their diabetes were not properly controlled.

  15. Constitution of traditional chinese medicine and related factors in women of childbearing age

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qiao-Yu Jiang

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Background: This study investigates the constitution of traditional Chinese medicine (TCM among women who want to be pregnant in one year and explores factors related to TCM constitution. Methods: This study was conducted on women who participated in free preconception check-ups provided by the Zhabei District Maternity and Child Care Center in Shanghai, China. The information regarding the female demographic characteristics, physical condition, history of pregnancy and childbearing, diet and behavior, and social psychological factors was collected, and TCM constitution assessment was performed. The Chi-square test, t-test, logistic regression analysis, and multinomial logistic regression analysis were used to explore the related factors of TCM constitution. Results: The participants in this study were aged 28.3 ± 3.0 years. Approximately fifty-five women in this study had Unbalanced Constitution. Logistic regression analysis showed that Shanghai residence, dysmenorrhea, gum bleeding, aversion to vegetables, preference for raw meat, job stress, and economic stress were significantly and negatively associated with Balanced Constitution. Multinomial logistic analysis showed that Shanghai residence was significantly associated with Yang-deficiency, Yin-deficiency, and Stagnant Qi Constitutions; gum bleeding was significantly associated with Yin-deficiency, Stagnant Blood, Stagnant Qi, and Inherited Special Constitutions; aversion to vegetables was significantly associated with Damp-heat Constitution; job stress was significantly associated with Yang-deficiency, Phlegm-dampness, Damp-heat, Stagnant Blood, and Stagnant Qi Constitutions; and economic stress was significantly associated with Yang-deficiency, and Stagnant Qi Constitutions. Conclusion: The application of TCM constitution to preconception care would be beneficial for early identification of potential TCM constitution risks and be beneficial for early intervention (e.g., health

  16. The Milking Profile of Dairy Cattle Farms in Central Macedonia (Greece

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    Ioannis Mitsopoulos

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to provide insights of the profile of the dairy farms of Central Macedonia (Greece, in terms of their milking practices. The analysis is based on data from a random sample of 123 dairy farms, obtained by means of a survey. The employment of the Categorical Principal Component Analysis on the 14 variables initially used to describe milking practices and of the Two-Step Cluster Analysis led to the grouping of the 123 farms to three clusters. Farms of the first cluster, named “Innovative”, use state-of-the-art equipment, automatic systems and innovative milking techniques (31.1% of the sample farms. “Peasant” farms (11.4% are mainly extensive, using mainly bucket plants. The third and most abundant group, the “Modernizing” farms (54.5% are use equipment of reasonable standards and some of them are on the process of renewing it. The results of a Multinomial Logit model verify that “Innovative” farms are large and achieve high yields, while the “Modernizing” ones are smaller, producing milk of lower quality and they are owned by relatively older dairy farmers. An interesting profile is depicted for “Peasant” farms, as they achieve satisfactory economic performance, combined with adequate milk quality. The analytical framework included the reduction of analysis variables to a smaller group of “dimensions”, using the Categorical Principal Component Analysis (CatPCA, based on which farms were clustered to alternative profiles, by employing a Two-Step Cluster (TSC Analysis. Differences in elements of milk quality and in the social profile of farms and farmers were examined among alternative profiles through the estimation of Multinomial Logit Models.

  17. Risk factors associated with recurrent homelessness after a first homeless episode.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McQuistion, Hunter L; Gorroochurn, Prakash; Hsu, Eustace; Caton, Carol L M

    2014-07-01

    Alcohol and drug use are commonly associated with the experience of homelessness. In order to better understand this, we explored the prevalence of drug and alcohol use as it related to successful re-housing within a sample of first-time single homeless adults at municipal shelters. From within this sample, we compared the features of recurrent homelessness with those of chronic homelessness and of being stably housed. We interviewed 344 subjects upon shelter entry and followed each one every six months for 18 months using standardized social and mental health measures. We analyzed baseline assessments relative to housing experiences during follow-up using Chi square and multinomial logistic regression. Eighty-one percent (N = 278) obtained housing over 18 months, of which 23.7 % (N = 66) experienced homelessness again. Recurrent homelessness was more common among those with a high school education and if initially re-housed with family. Bivariate analysis resulted in the observation of the highest rate of alcohol and other drug use among this recurrent group and multinomial logistic regression supported this only with the coupling of arrest history and diagnosed antisocial personality disorder. With relatively high rates of recurrent homelessness, there were differences between subjects who experienced recurrent homelessness compared to those who were stably housed and with chronic homelessness. That alcohol and other substance use disorders were associated with recurrent homelessness only if they were linked to other risk factors highlights the complexity of causes for homelessness and a resultant need to organize them into constellations of causal risk factors. Consistent with this, there should be initiatives that span bureaucratic boundaries so as to flexibly meet multiple complex service needs, thus improving outcomes concerning episodes of recurrent homelessness.

  18. ACUTE LOWER RESPIRATORY INFECTION IN GUARANI INDIGENOUS CHILDREN, BRAZIL.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Souza, Patricia Gomes de; Cardoso, Andrey Moreira; Sant'Anna, Clemax Couto; March, Maria de Fátima Bazhuni Pombo

    2018-03-29

    To describe the clinical profile and treatment of Brazilian Guarani indigenous children aged less than five years hospitalized for acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI), living in villages in the states from Rio de Janeiro to Rio Grande do Sul. Of the 234 children, 23 were excluded (incomplete data). The analysis was conducted in 211 children. Data were extracted from charts by a form. Based on record of wheezing and x-ray findings, ALRI was classified as bacterial, viral and viral-bacterial. A bivariate analysis was conducted using multinomial regression. Median age was 11 months. From the total sample, the ALRI cases were classified as viral (40.8%), bacterial (35.1%) and viral-bacterial (24.1%). It was verified that 53.1% of hospitalizations did not have clinical-radiological-laboratorial evidence to justify them. In the multinomial regression analysis, the comparison of bacterial and viral-bacterial showed the likelihood of having a cough was 3.1 times higher in the former (95%CI 1.11-8.70), whereas having chest retractions was 61.0% lower (OR 0.39, 95%CI 0.16-0.92). Comparing viral with viral-bacterial, the likelihood of being male was 2.2 times higher in the viral (95%CI 1.05-4.69), and of having tachypnea 58.0% lower (OR 0.42, 95%CI 0.19-0.92). Higher proportion of viral processes was identified, as well as viral-bacterial co-infections. Coughing was a symptom indicative of bacterial infection, whereas chest retractions and tachypnea showed viral-bacterial ALRI. Part of the resolution of non-severe ALRI still occurs at hospital level; therefore, we concluded that health services need to implement their programs in order to improve indigenous primary care.

  19. The Impact of Cigarette Packaging Design Among Young Females in Canada: Findings From a Discrete Choice Experiment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kotnowski, Kathy; Fong, Geoffrey T; Gallopel-Morvan, Karine; Islam, Towhidul; Hammond, David

    2016-05-01

    The tobacco industry uses various aspects of cigarette packaging design to market to specific groups. The current study examined the relative importance of five cigarette packaging attributes--pack structure (eg, "slims"), brand, branding, warning label size, and price--on perceptions of product taste, harm, and interest in trying, among young females in Canada. A discrete choice experiment was conducted with smoking and nonsmoking females, aged 16 to 24 (N = 448). Respondents were shown 10 choice sets, each containing four packs with different combinations of the attributes: pack structure (slim, lipstick, booklet, traditional); brand ("Vogue," "du Maurier"); branding (branded, plain); warning label size (50%, 75%); and price ($8.45, $10.45). For each choice set, respondents chose the brand that they: (1) would rather try, (2) would taste better, and (3) would be less harmful, or "none." For each outcome, the attributes' impact on consumer choice was analyzed using a multinomial logit model. The multinomial logit analyses revealed that young females weighted pack structure to be most important to their intention to try (46%), judgment of product taste (52%), and judgment of product harm (48%). Price and branding were weighted important in trial intent decisions (23% and 18%, respectively) and product taste judgments (29% and 15%, respectively). Whereas warning label size and brand were weighted important when judging product harm (23% and 17%, respectively). The findings suggest that standardized cigarette packaging may decrease demand and reduce misleading perceptions about product harm among young females. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  20. A real-time crash prediction model for the ramp vicinities of urban expressways

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    Moinul Hossain

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Ramp vicinities are arguably the known black-spots on urban expressways. There, while maintaining high speed, drivers need to respond to several complex events such as maneuvering, reading road signs, route planning and maintaining safe distance from other maneuvering vehicles simultaneously which demand higher level of cognitive response to ensure safety. Therefore, any additional discomfort caused by traffic dynamics may induce driving error resulting in a crash. This manuscript presents a methodology for identifying these dynamically forming hazardous traffic conditions near the ramp vicinities with high resolution real-time traffic flow data. It separates the ramp vicinities into four zones – upstream and downstream of entrance and exit ramps, and builds four separate real-time crash prediction models. Around two year (December 2007 to October 2009 crash data as well as their matching traffic sensor data from Shibuya 3 and Shinjuku 4 expressways under the jurisdiction of Tokyo Metropolitan Expressway Company Limited have been utilized for this research. Random multinomial logit, a forest of multinomial logit models, has been used to identify the most important variables. Finally, a real-time modeling method, Bayesian belief net (BBN, has been employed to build the four models using ramp flow, flow and congestion index in the upstream and flow and speed in the downstream of the ramp location as variables. The newly proposed models could predict 50%, 42%, 43% and 55% of the future crashes with around 10% false alarm for the downstream of entrance, downstream of exit, upstream of entrance and upstream of exit ramps respectively. The models can be utilized in combination with various traffic smoothing measures such as ramp metering, variable speed limit, warning messages through variable message signs, etc. to enhance safety near the ramp vicinities.