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Sample records for multinomial probits

  1. A Multinomial Probit Model with Latent Factors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Piatek, Rémi; Gensowski, Miriam

    2017-01-01

    be meaningfully linked to an economic model. We provide sufficient conditions that make this structure identified and interpretable. For inference, we design a Markov chain Monte Carlo sampler based on marginal data augmentation. A simulation exercise shows the good numerical performance of our sampler......We develop a parametrization of the multinomial probit model that yields greater insight into the underlying decision-making process, by decomposing the error terms of the utilities into latent factors and noise. The latent factors are identified without a measurement system, and they can...

  2. Parameter Estimation in Probit Model for Multivariate Multinomial Response Using SMLE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jaka Nugraha

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available In  the  research  field  of  transportation,  market  research and  politics,  often involving  the  response  of  the multinomial multivariate  observations.  In  this  paper, we discused  a  modeling  of  multivariate  multinomial  responses  using  probit  model.  The estimated  parameters  were  calculated  using Maximum  Likelihood  Estimations  (MLE based  on  the  GHK  simulation.  method  known  as Simulated  Maximum  Likelihood Estimations (SMLE. Likelihood function on the Probit model contains probability values that must be resolved by simulation. By using  the GHK simulation algorithm,  the estimator equation has been obtained for the parameters in the model Probit  Keywords : Probit Model, Newton-Raphson Iteration,  GHK simulator, MLE, simulated log-likelihood

  3. A constrained multinomial Probit route choice model in the metro network: Formulation, estimation and application

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yongsheng; Wei, Heng; Zheng, Kangning

    2017-01-01

    Considering that metro network expansion brings us with more alternative routes, it is attractive to integrate the impacts of routes set and the interdependency among alternative routes on route choice probability into route choice modeling. Therefore, the formulation, estimation and application of a constrained multinomial probit (CMNP) route choice model in the metro network are carried out in this paper. The utility function is formulated as three components: the compensatory component is a function of influencing factors; the non-compensatory component measures the impacts of routes set on utility; following a multivariate normal distribution, the covariance of error component is structured into three parts, representing the correlation among routes, the transfer variance of route, and the unobserved variance respectively. Considering multidimensional integrals of the multivariate normal probability density function, the CMNP model is rewritten as Hierarchical Bayes formula and M-H sampling algorithm based Monte Carlo Markov Chain approach is constructed to estimate all parameters. Based on Guangzhou Metro data, reliable estimation results are gained. Furthermore, the proposed CMNP model also shows a good forecasting performance for the route choice probabilities calculation and a good application performance for transfer flow volume prediction. PMID:28591188

  4. Brand Choice Modeling Modeling Toothpaste Brand Choice: An Empirical Comparison of Artificial Neural Networks and Multinomial Probit Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tolga Kaya

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study is to compare the performances of Artificial Neural Networks (ANN and Multinomial Probit (MNP approaches in modeling the choice decision within fast moving consumer goods sector. To do this, based on 2597 toothpaste purchases of a panel sample of 404 households, choice models are built and their performances are compared on the 861 purchases of a test sample of 135 households. Results show that ANN's predictions are better while MNP is useful in providing marketing insight.

  5. The Market for Ph.D. Holders in Greece: Probit and Multinomial Logit Analysis of their Employment Status

    OpenAIRE

    Joan Daouli; Eirini Konstantina Nikolatou

    2015-01-01

    The objective of this paper is to investigate the factors influencing the probability that a Ph.D. holder in Greece will work in the academic sector, as well as the probability of his or her choosing employment in various sectors of industry and occupational categories. Probit/multinomial logit models are employed using the 2001 Census data. The empirical results indicate that being young, married, having a Ph.D. in Natural Sciences and/or in Engineering, granted by a Greek university, increa...

  6. Application of Multinomial Probit Model in Analyzing Factors Affecting the Occupation of Graduated Students from the University of Agricultural Applied-Science

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Mohammadi

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Introduction:Scientificand practicaltrainingwith an emphasis onoperation andapplication of what is taught and having an empiricalapproachto education isa more suitable approach for creating jobs. Preparation of educational needs of the agricultural sector by scientificand practicaltraining and providingemploymentin agreement with education and skills is one of the most important programs in order to achieve the objectives of comprehensive development of the country. An imbalance seems to exist between the processes and materials in university courses and the skills and abilities needed by the labor market and this is the most importantreason for the failureof the university graduatesin finding employment. This studyhas beendone for understandingthe type of jobof agricultural graduatesof training center of Jihad-e-Keshavarzi in Mashhad and the factor saffecting their employment. Materials and Methods: This study is an applied research and the statistical population is 167 and includes all the students who had earned a Bachelor’s degree who had come to receive their graduation certificates in 2011. The dependent variable is type of job which includes five categories of employment in the public sector related to education, employ men unrelated to the government, employment related tothe privatesector andthe unemployed who were seeking workin the private sector. Independent variables includegender,quotainuniversityadmissions, the level of interestin thefield of study,satisfaction withthe discipline, evaluationand trainingof graduatesofvocational skillsacquired incollegegraduates'assessmentof thework culturein the societyand evaluation oflack ofcapitalas a factor preventingemployment in the academicfield. Information was collected through questionnaires and the multiple probit mode lwas used. Results and discussion: The results ofthe survey showthatjobsof graduates are divided intofour categoriesincluding:Related to the field of study and

  7. Heterogeneous Impact of the “Seguro Popular” Program on the Utilization of Obstetrical Services in Mexico, 2001–2006: A Multinomial Probit Model with a Discrete Endogenous Variable

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sosa-Rubi, Sandra G.; Galárraga, Omar

    2009-01-01

    Objective We evaluated the impact of Seguro Popular (SP), a program introduced in 2001 in Mexico primarily to finance health care for the poor. We focused on the effect of household enrollment in SP on pregnant women’s access to obstetrical services, an important outcome measure of both maternal and infant health. Data We relied upon data from the cross-sectional 2006 National Health and Nutrition Survey (ENSANUT) in Mexico. We analyzed the responses of 3,890 women who delivered babies during 2001–2006 and whose households lacked employer-based health care coverage. Methods We formulated a multinomial probit model that distinguished between three mutually exclusive sites for delivering a baby: a health unit specifically accredited by SP; a non-SP-accredited clinic run by the Department of Health (Secretaría de Salud, or SSA); and private obstetrical care. Our model accounted for the endogeneity of the household’s binary decision to enroll in the SP program. Results Women in households that participated in the SP program had a much stronger preference for having a baby in a SP-sponsored unit rather than paying out of pocket for a private delivery. At the same time, participation in SP was associated with a stronger preference for delivering in the private sector rather than at a state-run SSA clinic. On balance, the Seguro Popular program reduced pregnant women’s attendance at an SSA clinic much more than it reduced the probability of delivering a baby in the private sector. The quantitative impact of the SP program varied with the woman’s education and health, as well as the assets and location (rural versus urban) of the household. Conclusions The SP program had a robust, significantly positive impact on access to obstetrical services. Our finding that women enrolled in SP switched from non-SP state-run facilities, rather than from out-of-pocket private services, is important for public policy and requires further exploration. PMID:18824268

  8. and Multinomial Logistic Regression

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This work presented the results of an experimental comparison of two models: Multinomial Logistic Regression (MLR) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) for classifying students based on their academic performance. The predictive accuracy for each model was measured by their average Classification Correct Rate (CCR).

  9. Interpreting and Understanding Logits, Probits, and other Non-Linear Probability Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Breen, Richard; Karlson, Kristian Bernt; Holm, Anders

    2018-01-01

    Methods textbooks in sociology and other social sciences routinely recommend the use of the logit or probit model when an outcome variable is binary, an ordered logit or ordered probit when it is ordinal, and a multinomial logit when it has more than two categories. But these methodological...... guidelines take little or no account of a body of work that, over the past 30 years, has pointed to problematic aspects of these nonlinear probability models and, particularly, to difficulties in interpreting their parameters. In this chapterreview, we draw on that literature to explain the problems, show...

  10. A metric for cross-sample comparisons using logit and probit

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karlson, Kristian Bernt

    relative to an arbitrary scale, which makes the coefficients difficult both to interpret and to compare across groups or samples. Do differences in coefficients reflect true differences or differences in scales? This cross-sample comparison problem raises concerns for comparative research. However, we......* across groups or samples, making it suitable for situations met in real applications in comparative research. Our derivations also extend to the probit and to ordered and multinomial models. The new metric is implemented in the Stata command nlcorr....

  11. Reasons for not buying a car : a probit-selection multinomial logit choice model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gao, Y.; Rasouli, S.; Timmermans, H.J.P.

    2014-01-01

    Generating and maintaining gradients of cell density and extracellular matrix (ECM) components is a prerequisite for the development of functionality of healthy tissue. Therefore, gaining insights into the drivers of spatial organization of cells and the role of ECM during tissue morphogenesis is

  12. FORMULASI MODEL PERMUTASI SIKLIS DENGAN OBJEK MULTINOMIAL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sukma Adi Perdana

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Penelitian ini bertujuan membangun model matematika untuk menghitung jumlah susunan objek dari permutasi siklis yang memiliki objek multinomial. Model yang dibangun dibatasi untuk permutasi siklis yang memiliki objek multinomial dengan minimal ada satu jenis objek beranggotakan tunggal. Pemodelan dilakukan berdasarkan struktur matematika dari permutasi siklis dan permutasi multinomial. Model permutasi siklis yang memiliki objek multinomial telah dirumuskan.   Pembuktian model telah dilakukan melalui validasi struktur serta validasi hasil yang dilakukan dengan cara membandingkan hasil perhitungan model dan hasil pencacahan. Teorema tentang permutasi siklis dengan objek multinomial juga telah dibangun. Kata kunci:  pemodelan , permutasi siklis, permutasi multinomial This study aims at constructing mathematical model to count the number of arrangement of objects form cyclical permutation that has multinomial objects. The model constructed is limited to cyclical permutation that has multinomial object in which at least one kind of object having single cardinality is contained within. Modelling is undertaken based on mathematical structure of cyclical permutation and multinomial permutation. Cyclical permutation model having multinomial object has been formulated as . The proof of the model has been undertaken by validating structure and validating the outcome which was conducted by comparing counting result of model and counting result manually. The theorem of cyclical permutation with multinomial object has also been developed. Keywords: modelling, cyclical permutation, multinomial permutation

  13. A multinomial-logit ordered-probit model for jointly analyzing crash avoidance maneuvers and crash severity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaplan, Sigal; Prato, Carlo Giacomo

    ' propensity to engage in various corrective maneuvers in the case of the critical event of vehicle travelling. Five lateral and speed control maneuvers are considered: “braking”, “steering”, “braking & steering”, and “other maneuvers”, in addition to a “no action” option. The analyzed data are retrieved from...... the United States National Automotive Sampling System General Estimates System (GES) crash database for the years 2005-2009. Results show (i) the correlation between crash avoidance maneuvers and crash severity, and (ii) the link between drivers' attributes, risky driving behavior, road characteristics...

  14. Parameter identification in multinomial processing tree models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schmittmann, V.D.; Dolan, C.V.; Raijmakers, M.E.J.; Batchelder, W.H.

    2010-01-01

    Multinomial processing tree models form a popular class of statistical models for categorical data that have applications in various areas of psychological research. As in all statistical models, establishing which parameters are identified is necessary for model inference and selection on the basis

  15. Interpreting Results from the Multinomial Logit Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wulff, Jesper

    2015-01-01

    This article provides guidelines and illustrates practical steps necessary for an analysis of results from the multinomial logit model (MLM). The MLM is a popular model in the strategy literature because it allows researchers to examine strategic choices with multiple outcomes. However, there see...... suitable for both interpretation and communication of results. The pratical steps are illustrated through an application of the MLM to the choice of foreign market entry mode.......This article provides guidelines and illustrates practical steps necessary for an analysis of results from the multinomial logit model (MLM). The MLM is a popular model in the strategy literature because it allows researchers to examine strategic choices with multiple outcomes. However, there seem...... to be systematic issues with regard to how researchers interpret their results when using the MLM. In this study, I present a set of guidelines critical to analyzing and interpreting results from the MLM. The procedure involves intuitive graphical representations of predicted probabilities and marginal effects...

  16. Multinomial logistic regression in workers' health

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grilo, Luís M.; Grilo, Helena L.; Gonçalves, Sónia P.; Junça, Ana

    2017-11-01

    In European countries, namely in Portugal, it is common to hear some people mentioning that they are exposed to excessive and continuous psychosocial stressors at work. This is increasing in diverse activity sectors, such as, the Services sector. A representative sample was collected from a Portuguese Services' organization, by applying a survey (internationally validated), which variables were measured in five ordered categories in Likert-type scale. A multinomial logistic regression model is used to estimate the probability of each category of the dependent variable general health perception where, among other independent variables, burnout appear as statistically significant.

  17. Comparison of multinomial and binomial proportion methods for analysis of multinomial count data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galyean, M L; Wester, D B

    2010-10-01

    Simulation methods were used to generate 1,000 experiments, each with 3 treatments and 10 experimental units/treatment, in completely randomized (CRD) and randomized complete block designs. Data were counts in 3 ordered or 4 nominal categories from multinomial distributions. For the 3-category analyses, category probabilities were 0.6, 0.3, and 0.1, respectively, for 2 of the treatments, and 0.5, 0.35, and 0.15 for the third treatment. In the 4-category analysis (CRD only), probabilities were 0.3, 0.3, 0.2, and 0.2 for treatments 1 and 2 vs. 0.4, 0.4, 0.1, and 0.1 for treatment 3. The 3-category data were analyzed with generalized linear mixed models as an ordered multinomial distribution with a cumulative logit link or by regrouping the data (e.g., counts in 1 category/sum of counts in all categories), followed by analysis of single categories as binomial proportions. Similarly, the 4-category data were analyzed as a nominal multinomial distribution with a glogit link or by grouping data as binomial proportions. For the 3-category CRD analyses, empirically determined type I error rates based on pair-wise comparisons (F- and Wald chi(2) tests) did not differ between multinomial and individual binomial category analyses with 10 (P = 0.38 to 0.60) or 50 (P = 0.19 to 0.67) sampling units/experimental unit. When analyzed as binomial proportions, power estimates varied among categories, with analysis of the category with the greatest counts yielding power similar to the multinomial analysis. Agreement between methods (percentage of experiments with the same results for the overall test for treatment effects) varied considerably among categories analyzed and sampling unit scenarios for the 3-category CRD analyses. Power (F-test) was 24.3, 49.1, 66.9, 83.5, 86.8, and 99.7% for 10, 20, 30, 40, 50, and 100 sampling units/experimental unit for the 3-category multinomial CRD analyses. Results with randomized complete block design simulations were similar to those with the CRD

  18. Nonparametric Bayesian models through probit stick-breaking processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodríguez, Abel; Dunson, David B

    2011-03-01

    We describe a novel class of Bayesian nonparametric priors based on stick-breaking constructions where the weights of the process are constructed as probit transformations of normal random variables. We show that these priors are extremely flexible, allowing us to generate a great variety of models while preserving computational simplicity. Particular emphasis is placed on the construction of rich temporal and spatial processes, which are applied to two problems in finance and ecology.

  19. Implicit moral evaluations: A multinomial modeling approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cameron, C Daryl; Payne, B Keith; Sinnott-Armstrong, Walter; Scheffer, Julian A; Inzlicht, Michael

    2017-01-01

    Implicit moral evaluations-i.e., immediate, unintentional assessments of the wrongness of actions or persons-play a central role in supporting moral behavior in everyday life. Yet little research has employed methods that rigorously measure individual differences in implicit moral evaluations. In five experiments, we develop a new sequential priming measure-the Moral Categorization Task-and a multinomial model that decomposes judgment on this task into multiple component processes. These include implicit moral evaluations of moral transgression primes (Unintentional Judgment), accurate moral judgments about target actions (Intentional Judgment), and a directional tendency to judge actions as morally wrong (Response Bias). Speeded response deadlines reduced Intentional Judgment but not Unintentional Judgment (Experiment 1). Unintentional Judgment was stronger toward moral transgression primes than non-moral negative primes (Experiments 2-4). Intentional Judgment was associated with increased error-related negativity, a neurophysiological indicator of behavioral control (Experiment 4). Finally, people who voted for an anti-gay marriage amendment had stronger Unintentional Judgment toward gay marriage primes (Experiment 5). Across Experiments 1-4, implicit moral evaluations converged with moral personality: Unintentional Judgment about wrong primes, but not negative primes, was negatively associated with psychopathic tendencies and positively associated with moral identity and guilt proneness. Theoretical and practical applications of formal modeling for moral psychology are discussed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. The Finite and Moving Order Multinomial Universal Portfolio

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tan, Choon Peng; Pang, Sook Theng

    2013-01-01

    An upper bound for the ratio of wealths of the best constant -rebalanced portfolio to that of the multinomial universal portfolio is derived. The finite- order multinomial universal portfolios can reduce the implementation time and computer-memory requirements for computation. The improved performance of the finite-order portfolios on some selected local stock-price data sets is observed.

  1. Naive Bayesian classifiers for multinomial features: a theoretical analysis

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Van Dyk, E

    2007-11-01

    Full Text Available The authors investigate the use of naive Bayesian classifiers for multinomial feature spaces and derive error estimates for these classifiers. The error analysis is done by developing a mathematical model to estimate the probability density...

  2. The intermediate endpoint effect in logistic and probit regression

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacKinnon, DP; Lockwood, CM; Brown, CH; Wang, W; Hoffman, JM

    2010-01-01

    Background An intermediate endpoint is hypothesized to be in the middle of the causal sequence relating an independent variable to a dependent variable. The intermediate variable is also called a surrogate or mediating variable and the corresponding effect is called the mediated, surrogate endpoint, or intermediate endpoint effect. Clinical studies are often designed to change an intermediate or surrogate endpoint and through this intermediate change influence the ultimate endpoint. In many intermediate endpoint clinical studies the dependent variable is binary, and logistic or probit regression is used. Purpose The purpose of this study is to describe a limitation of a widely used approach to assessing intermediate endpoint effects and to propose an alternative method, based on products of coefficients, that yields more accurate results. Methods The intermediate endpoint model for a binary outcome is described for a true binary outcome and for a dichotomization of a latent continuous outcome. Plots of true values and a simulation study are used to evaluate the different methods. Results Distorted estimates of the intermediate endpoint effect and incorrect conclusions can result from the application of widely used methods to assess the intermediate endpoint effect. The same problem occurs for the proportion of an effect explained by an intermediate endpoint, which has been suggested as a useful measure for identifying intermediate endpoints. A solution to this problem is given based on the relationship between latent variable modeling and logistic or probit regression. Limitations More complicated intermediate variable models are not addressed in the study, although the methods described in the article can be extended to these more complicated models. Conclusions Researchers are encouraged to use an intermediate endpoint method based on the product of regression coefficients. A common method based on difference in coefficient methods can lead to distorted

  3. Pricing Mining Concessions Based on Combined Multinomial Pricing Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chang Xiao

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available A combined multinomial pricing model is proposed for pricing mining concession in which the annualized volatility of the price of mineral products follows a multinomial distribution. First, a combined multinomial pricing model is proposed which consists of binomial pricing models calculated according to different volatility values. Second, a method is provided to calculate the annualized volatility and the distribution. Third, the value of convenience yields is calculated based on the relationship between the futures price and the spot price. The notion of convenience yields is used to adjust our model as well. Based on an empirical study of a Chinese copper mine concession, we verify that our model is easy to use and better than the model with constant volatility when considering the changing annualized volatility of the price of the mineral product.

  4. Exploring Driver Injury Severity at Intersection: An Ordered Probit Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yaping Zhang

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available It is well known that intersections are the most hazardous locations; however, only little is known about driver injury severity in intersection crashes. Hence, the main goal of this study was to further examine the different factors contributing to driver injury severity involved in fatal crashes at intersections. Data used for the present analysis was from the US DOT-Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS crash database from the year 2011. An ordered probit model was employed to fit the fatal crash data and analyze the factors impacting each injury severity level. The analysis results displayed that driver injury severity is significantly affected by many factors. They include driver age and gender, driver ethnicity, vehicle type and age (years of use, crash type, driving drunk, speeding, violating stop sign, cognitively distracted driving, and seat belt usage. These findings from the current study are beneficial to form a solid basis for adopting corresponding measures to effectively drop injury severity suffering from intersection crash. More insights into the effects of risk factors on driver injury severity could be acquired using more advanced statistical models.

  5. Hierarchical Multinomial Processing Tree Models: A Latent-Trait Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klauer, Karl Christoph

    2010-01-01

    Multinomial processing tree models are widely used in many areas of psychology. A hierarchical extension of the model class is proposed, using a multivariate normal distribution of person-level parameters with the mean and covariance matrix to be estimated from the data. The hierarchical model allows one to take variability between persons into…

  6. The MDI Method as a Generalization of Logit, Probit and Hendry Analyses in Marketing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1980-04-01

    model involves nothing more than fitting a normal distribution function ( Hanushek and Jackson (1977)). For a given value of x, the probit model...preference shifts within the soft drink category. --For applications of probit models relevant for marketing, see Hausman and Wise (1978) and Hanushek and...Marketing Research" JMR XIV, Feb. (1977). Hanushek , E.A., and J.E. Jackson, Statistical Methods for Social Scientists. Academic Press, New York (1977

  7. Multinomial-exponential reliability function: a software reliability model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saiz de Bustamante, Amalio; Saiz de Bustamante, Barbara

    2003-01-01

    The multinomial-exponential reliability function (MERF) was developed during a detailed study of the software failure/correction processes. Later on MERF was approximated by a much simpler exponential reliability function (EARF), which keeps most of MERF mathematical properties, so the two functions together makes up a single reliability model. The reliability model MERF/EARF considers the software failure process as a non-homogeneous Poisson process (NHPP), and the repair (correction) process, a multinomial distribution. The model supposes that both processes are statistically independent. The paper discusses the model's theoretical basis, its mathematical properties and its application to software reliability. Nevertheless it is foreseen model applications to inspection and maintenance of physical systems. The paper includes a complete numerical example of the model application to a software reliability analysis

  8. A Probit Model for the State of the Greek GDP Growth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stavros Degiannakis

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available The paper provides probability estimates of the state of the GDP growth. A regime-switching model defines the probability of the Greek GDP being in boom or recession. Then probit models extract the predictive information of a set of explanatory (economic and financial variables regarding the state of the GDP growth. A contemporaneous, as well as a lagged, relationship between the explanatory variables and the state of the GDP growth is conducted. The mean absolute distance (MAD between the probability of not being in recession and the probability estimated by the probit model is the function that evaluates the performance of the models. The probit model with the industrial production index and the realized volatility as the explanatory variables has the lowest MAD value of 6.43% (7.94% in the contemporaneous (lagged relationship.

  9. Appropriateness of Probit-9 in development of quarantine treatments for timber and timber commodities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marcus Schortemeyer; Ken Thomas; Robert A. Haack; Adnan Uzunovic; Kelli Hoover; Jack A. Simpson; Cheryl A. Grgurinovic

    2011-01-01

    Following the increasing international phasing out of methyl bromide for quarantine purposes, the development of alternative treatments for timber pests becomes imperative. The international accreditation of new quarantine treatments requires verification standards that give confidence in the effectiveness of a treatment. Probit-9 mortality is a standard for treatment...

  10. Seeking alternatives to probit 9 when developing treatments for wood packaging materials under ISPM No. 15

    Science.gov (United States)

    R.A. Haack; A. Uzunovic; K. Hoover; J.A. Cook

    2011-01-01

    ISPM No. 15 presents guidelines for treating wood packaging material used in international trade. There are currently two approved phytosanitary treatments: heat treatment and methyl bromide fumigation. New treatments are under development, and are needed given that methyl bromide is being phased out. Probit 9 efficacy (100% mortality of at least 93 613 test organisms...

  11. Evaluating the performance of simple estimators for probit models with two dummy endogenous regressors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holm, Anders; Nielsen, Jacob Arendt

    2013-01-01

    This study considers the small sample performance of approximate but simple two-stage estimators for probit models with two endogenous binary covariates. Monte Carlo simulations showthat all the considered estimators, including the simulated maximum-likelihood (SML) estimation, of the trivariate ...

  12. Another Look at the Method of Y-Standardization in Logit and Probit Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karlson, Kristian Bernt

    2015-01-01

    This paper takes another look at the derivation of the method of Y-standardization used in sociological analysis involving comparisons of coefficients across logit or probit models. It shows that the method can be derived under less restrictive assumptions than hitherto suggested. Rather than...

  13. The Use of a Probit Model for the Validation of Selection Procedures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dagenais, Denyse L.

    1984-01-01

    After a review of the disadvantages of linear models for estimating the probability of academic success from previous school records and admission test results, the use of a probit model is proposed. The model is illustrated with admissions data from the Ecole des Hautes Etudes Commerciales in Montreal. (Author/BW)

  14. Default probabilities, CDS premiums and downgrades : A probit-MIDAS analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Freitag, L.

    2014-01-01

    This paper examines the relationship between sovereign credit default swaps (CDS) and sovereign rating changes of European countries. To this aim, a new estimator is introduced which merges mixed data sampling (MIDAS) with probit regression. Simulations show that the estimator has good properties in

  15. Interpreting Marginal Effects in the Multinomial Logit Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wulff, Jesper

    2014-01-01

    with a substantial increase in the probability of entering a foreign market using a joint venture, while increases in the unpredictability in the host country environment are associated with a lower probability of wholly owned subsidiaries and a higher probability of exporting entries....... that have entered foreign markets. Through the application of a multinomial logit model, careful analysis of the marginal effects is performed through graphical representations, marginal effects at the mean, average marginal effects and elasticities. I show that increasing cultural distance is associated......This paper presents the challenges when researchers interpret results about relationships between variables from discrete choice models with multiple outcomes. The recommended approach is demonstrated by testing predictions from transaction cost theory on a sample of 246 Scandinavian firms...

  16. PENERAPAN REGRESI PROBIT BIVARIAT UNTUK MENDUGA FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMENGARUHI KELULUSAN MAHASISWA (Studi Kasus: Mahasiswa Fakultas MIPA Unversitas Udayana

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    NI GUSTI KETUT TRISNA PRADNYANTARI

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this research to estimate the factors that affect students graduation using bivariate probit regression. Bivariate probit regression is a statistical method that involves two response variables which are qualitative and the independent variables are qualitative, quantitative, or a combination of both. In bivariate probit regression model, the result obtained is the probability of the response variable. The result of this research are the factors that affect significantly for students graduation based on study period are majors, sex, and duration of the thesis, while the factors that significantly for students graduation based on GPA are the entry system, duration of the thesis and the number of parents’ dependents.

  17. The bivariate probit model of uncomplicated control of tumor: a heuristic exposition of the methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Herbert, Donald

    1997-01-01

    Purpose: To describe the concept, models, and methods for the construction of estimates of joint probability of uncomplicated control of tumors in radiation oncology. Interpolations using this model can lead to the identification of more efficient treatment regimens for an individual patient. The requirement to find the treatment regimen that will maximize the joint probability of uncomplicated control of tumors suggests a new class of evolutionary experimental designs--Response Surface Methods--for clinical trials in radiation oncology. Methods and Materials: The software developed by Lesaffre and Molenberghs is used to construct bivariate probit models of the joint probability of uncomplicated control of cancer of the oropharynx from a set of 45 patients for each of whom the presence/absence of recurrent tumor (the binary event E-bar 1 /E 1 ) and the presence/absence of necrosis (the binary event E 2 /E-bar 2 ) of the normal tissues of the target volume is recorded, together with the treatment variables dose, time, and fractionation. Results: The bivariate probit model can be used to select a treatment regime that will give a specified probability, say P(S) = 0.60, of uncomplicated control of tumor by interpolation within a set of treatment regimes with known outcomes of recurrence and necrosis. The bivariate probit model can be used to guide a sequence of clinical trials to find the maximum probability of uncomplicated control of tumor for patients in a given prognostic stratum using Response Surface methods by extrapolation from an initial set of treatment regimens. Conclusions: The design of treatments for individual patients and the design of clinical trials might be improved by use of a bivariate probit model and Response Surface Methods

  18. Modeling Information Content Via Dirichlet-Multinomial Regression Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferrari, Alberto

    2017-01-01

    Shannon entropy is being increasingly used in biomedical research as an index of complexity and information content in sequences of symbols, e.g. languages, amino acid sequences, DNA methylation patterns and animal vocalizations. Yet, distributional properties of information entropy as a random variable have seldom been the object of study, leading to researchers mainly using linear models or simulation-based analytical approach to assess differences in information content, when entropy is measured repeatedly in different experimental conditions. Here a method to perform inference on entropy in such conditions is proposed. Building on results coming from studies in the field of Bayesian entropy estimation, a symmetric Dirichlet-multinomial regression model, able to deal efficiently with the issue of mean entropy estimation, is formulated. Through a simulation study the model is shown to outperform linear modeling in a vast range of scenarios and to have promising statistical properties. As a practical example, the method is applied to a data set coming from a real experiment on animal communication.

  19. Prediction of unwanted pregnancies using logistic regression, probit regression and discriminant analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebrahimzadeh, Farzad; Hajizadeh, Ebrahim; Vahabi, Nasim; Almasian, Mohammad; Bakhteyar, Katayoon

    2015-01-01

    Unwanted pregnancy not intended by at least one of the parents has undesirable consequences for the family and the society. In the present study, three classification models were used and compared to predict unwanted pregnancies in an urban population. In this cross-sectional study, 887 pregnant mothers referring to health centers in Khorramabad, Iran, in 2012 were selected by the stratified and cluster sampling; relevant variables were measured and for prediction of unwanted pregnancy, logistic regression, discriminant analysis, and probit regression models and SPSS software version 21 were used. To compare these models, indicators such as sensitivity, specificity, the area under the ROC curve, and the percentage of correct predictions were used. The prevalence of unwanted pregnancies was 25.3%. The logistic and probit regression models indicated that parity and pregnancy spacing, contraceptive methods, household income and number of living male children were related to unwanted pregnancy. The performance of the models based on the area under the ROC curve was 0.735, 0.733, and 0.680 for logistic regression, probit regression, and linear discriminant analysis, respectively. Given the relatively high prevalence of unwanted pregnancies in Khorramabad, it seems necessary to revise family planning programs. Despite the similar accuracy of the models, if the researcher is interested in the interpretability of the results, the use of the logistic regression model is recommended.

  20. An improved probit method for assessment of domino effect to chemical process equipment caused by overpressure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mingguang, Zhang; Juncheng, Jiang

    2008-10-30

    Overpressure is one important cause of domino effect in accidents of chemical process equipments. Damage probability and relative threshold value are two necessary parameters in QRA of this phenomenon. Some simple models had been proposed based on scarce data or oversimplified assumption. Hence, more data about damage to chemical process equipments were gathered and analyzed, a quantitative relationship between damage probability and damage degrees of equipment was built, and reliable probit models were developed associated to specific category of chemical process equipments. Finally, the improvements of present models were evidenced through comparison with other models in literatures, taking into account such parameters: consistency between models and data, depth of quantitativeness in QRA.

  1. Estimating a graphical intra-class correlation coefficient (GICC) using multivariate probit-linear mixed models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yue, Chen; Chen, Shaojie; Sair, Haris I; Airan, Raag; Caffo, Brian S

    2015-09-01

    Data reproducibility is a critical issue in all scientific experiments. In this manuscript, the problem of quantifying the reproducibility of graphical measurements is considered. The image intra-class correlation coefficient (I2C2) is generalized and the graphical intra-class correlation coefficient (GICC) is proposed for such purpose. The concept for GICC is based on multivariate probit-linear mixed effect models. A Markov Chain Monte Carlo EM (mcm-cEM) algorithm is used for estimating the GICC. Simulation results with varied settings are demonstrated and our method is applied to the KIRBY21 test-retest dataset.

  2. The individual tolerance concept is not the sole explanation for the probit dose-effect model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Newman, M.C.; McCloskey, J.T.

    2000-02-01

    Predominant methods for analyzing dose- or concentration-effect data (i.e., probit analysis) are based on the concept of individual tolerance or individual effective dose (IED, the smallest characteristic dose needed to kill an individual). An alternative explanation (stochasticity hypothesis) is that individuals do not have unique tolerances: death results from stochastic processes occurring similarly in all individuals. These opposing hypotheses were tested with two types of experiments. First, time to stupefaction (TTS) was measured for zebra fish (Brachydanio rerio) exposed to benzocaine. The same 40 fish were exposed during five trials to test if the same order for TTS was maintained among trials. The IED hypothesis was supported with a minor stochastic component being present. Second, eastern mosquitofish (Gambusia holbrooki) were exposed to sublethal or lethal NaCl concentrations until a large portion of the lethally exposed fish died. After sufficient time for recovery, fish sublethally exposed and fish surviving lethal exposure were exposed simultaneously to lethal NaCl concentrations. No statistically significant effect was found of previous exposure on survival time but a large stochastic component to the survival dynamics was obvious. Repetition of this second type of test with pentachlorophenol also provided no support for the IED hypothesis. The authors conclude that neither hypothesis alone was the sole or dominant explanation for the lognormal (probit) model. Determination of the correct explanation (IED or stochastic) or the relative contributions of each is crucial to predicting consequences to populations after repeated or chronic exposures to any particular toxicant.

  3. DETERMINANTS OF SOVEREIGN RATING: FACTOR BASED ORDERED PROBIT MODELS FOR PANEL DATA ANALYSIS MODELING FRAMEWORK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dilek Teker

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this research is to compose a new rating methodology and provide credit notches to 23 countries which of 13 are developed and 10 are emerging. There are various literature that explains the determinants of credit ratings. Following the literature, we select 11 variables for our model which of 5 are eliminated by the factor analysis. We use specific dummies to investigate the structural breaks in time and cross section such as pre crises, post crises, BRIC membership, EU membership, OPEC membership, shipbuilder country and platinum reserved country. Then we run an ordered probit model and give credit notches to the countries. We use FITCH ratings as benchmark. Thus, at the end we compare the notches of FITCH with the ones we derive out of our estimated model.

  4. Extended probit mortality model for zooplankton against transient change of PCO(2).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sato, Toru; Watanabe, Yuji; Toyota, Koji; Ishizaka, Joji

    2005-09-01

    The direct injection of CO(2) in the deep ocean is a promising way to mitigate global warming. One of the uncertainties in this method, however, is its impact on marine organisms in the near field. Since the concentration of CO(2), which organisms experience in the ocean, changes with time, it is required to develop a biological impact model for the organisms against the unsteady change of CO(2) concentration. In general, the LC(50) concept is widely applied for testing a toxic agent for the acute mortality. Here, we regard the probit-transformed mortality as a linear function not only of the concentration of CO(2) but also of exposure time. A simple mathematical transform of the function gives a damage-accumulation mortality model for zooplankton. In this article, this model was validated by the mortality test of Metamphiascopsis hirsutus against the transient change of CO(2) concentration.

  5. Is the probit 9 security level appropriate for disinfestation using gamma-radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ohta, A.T.; Kaneshiro, K.Y.; Kurihara, J.S.; Kanegawa, K.M.; Nagamine, L.R.

    1985-01-01

    The probit 9 concept requires that a given treatment result in 99.9968 percent mortality in an estimated population of 100,000 individuals. The USDA-Hawaiian Fruit Fly Investigations Laboratory has determined that 0.26 kGy is the minimum absorbed dose of gamma-radiation required to prevent adult emergence of the three species of fruit flies in Hawaii: the Mediterranean fruit fly, Ceratitis capitata; the Oriental fruit fly, Dacus dorsalis; and the melon fly, Dacus cucurbitae. However, at dosages higher than 0.26 kGy, the authors observed relatively high rates of egg hatch (10-30 percent). In addition, when eggs are treated at 0.26 kGy, those larvae that do hatch may develop into third instar larvae, and their feeing may decrease the marketability of the fruits. Furthermore, there is some uncertainty as to whether or not importing countries would accept fruits with any living larvae in the shipment. For these reasons, the authors tried to determine the minimum absorbed dosages required to obtain mortality in mature eggs and larvae of the medfly. Results of the research showed that although high egg and larval mortality was observed at dosages of 0.50 to 0.60 kGy in nearly all of the fruit types and varieties studied, 100 percent mortality of mature eggs and larvae was not attained at these dosages. Nevertheless, the authors think that an increase in the minimum absorbed dose higher than that determined using the probit 9 concept (i.e., 0.26 kGy) should be considered because they were able to ascertain that, at dosages from 0.40 to 0.60 kGy, not only is egg hatch greatly reduced but the larvae hatching from these eggs developed only to the late first or early second larval instar stages

  6. Tennis Elbow Diagnosis Using Equivalent Uniform Voltage to Fit the Logistic and the Probit Diseased Probability Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tsair-Fwu Lee

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available To develop the logistic and the probit models to analyse electromyographic (EMG equivalent uniform voltage- (EUV- response for the tenderness of tennis elbow. In total, 78 hands from 39 subjects were enrolled. In this study, surface EMG (sEMG signal is obtained by an innovative device with electrodes over forearm region. The analytical endpoint was defined as Visual Analog Score (VAS 3+ tenderness of tennis elbow. The logistic and the probit diseased probability (DP models were established for the VAS score and EMG absolute voltage-time histograms (AVTH. TV50 is the threshold equivalent uniform voltage predicting a 50% risk of disease. Twenty-one out of 78 samples (27% developed VAS 3+ tenderness of tennis elbow reported by the subject and confirmed by the physician. The fitted DP parameters were TV50 = 153.0 mV (CI: 136.3–169.7 mV, γ50 = 0.84 (CI: 0.78–0.90 and TV50 = 155.6 mV (CI: 138.9–172.4 mV, m = 0.54 (CI: 0.49–0.59 for logistic and probit models, respectively. When the EUV ≥ 153 mV, the DP of the patient is greater than 50% and vice versa. The logistic and the probit models are valuable tools to predict the DP of VAS 3+ tenderness of tennis elbow.

  7. Tennis Elbow Diagnosis Using Equivalent Uniform Voltage to Fit the Logistic and the Probit Diseased Probability Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Wei-Chun; Lin, Shu-Yuan; Wu, Li-Fu; Guo, Shih-Sian; Huang, Hsiang-Jui; Chao, Pei-Ju

    2015-01-01

    To develop the logistic and the probit models to analyse electromyographic (EMG) equivalent uniform voltage- (EUV-) response for the tenderness of tennis elbow. In total, 78 hands from 39 subjects were enrolled. In this study, surface EMG (sEMG) signal is obtained by an innovative device with electrodes over forearm region. The analytical endpoint was defined as Visual Analog Score (VAS) 3+ tenderness of tennis elbow. The logistic and the probit diseased probability (DP) models were established for the VAS score and EMG absolute voltage-time histograms (AVTH). TV50 is the threshold equivalent uniform voltage predicting a 50% risk of disease. Twenty-one out of 78 samples (27%) developed VAS 3+ tenderness of tennis elbow reported by the subject and confirmed by the physician. The fitted DP parameters were TV50 = 153.0 mV (CI: 136.3–169.7 mV), γ 50 = 0.84 (CI: 0.78–0.90) and TV50 = 155.6 mV (CI: 138.9–172.4 mV), m = 0.54 (CI: 0.49–0.59) for logistic and probit models, respectively. When the EUV ≥ 153 mV, the DP of the patient is greater than 50% and vice versa. The logistic and the probit models are valuable tools to predict the DP of VAS 3+ tenderness of tennis elbow. PMID:26380281

  8. Fuzzy multinomial logistic regression analysis: A multi-objective programming approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdalla, Hesham A.; El-Sayed, Amany A.; Hamed, Ramadan

    2017-05-01

    Parameter estimation for multinomial logistic regression is usually based on maximizing the likelihood function. For large well-balanced datasets, Maximum Likelihood (ML) estimation is a satisfactory approach. Unfortunately, ML can fail completely or at least produce poor results in terms of estimated probabilities and confidence intervals of parameters, specially for small datasets. In this study, a new approach based on fuzzy concepts is proposed to estimate parameters of the multinomial logistic regression. The study assumes that the parameters of multinomial logistic regression are fuzzy. Based on the extension principle stated by Zadeh and Bárdossy's proposition, a multi-objective programming approach is suggested to estimate these fuzzy parameters. A simulation study is used to evaluate the performance of the new approach versus Maximum likelihood (ML) approach. Results show that the new proposed model outperforms ML in cases of small datasets.

  9. Estimation from incomplete multinomial data. Ph.D. Thesis - Harvard Univ.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Credeur, K. R.

    1978-01-01

    The vector of multinomial cell probabilities was estimated from incomplete data, incomplete in that it contains partially classified observations. Each such partially classified observation was observed to fall in one of two or more selected categories but was not classified further into a single category. The data were assumed to be incomplete at random. The estimation criterion was minimization of risk for quadratic loss. The estimators were the classical maximum likelihood estimate, the Bayesian posterior mode, and the posterior mean. An approximation was developed for the posterior mean. The Dirichlet, the conjugate prior for the multinomial distribution, was assumed for the prior distribution.

  10. A dynamic random effects multinomial logit model of household car ownership

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bue Bjørner, Thomas; Leth-Petersen, Søren

    2007-01-01

    Using a large household panel we estimate demand for car ownership by means of a dynamic multinomial model with correlated random effects. Results suggest that the persistence in car ownership observed in the data should be attributed to both true state dependence and to unobserved heterogeneity...... (random effects). It also appears that random effects related to single and multiple car ownership are correlated, suggesting that the IIA assumption employed in simple multinomial models of car ownership is invalid. Relatively small elasticities with respect to income and car costs are estimated...

  11. Probit vs. semi-nonparametric estimation: examining the role of disability on institutional entry for older adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharma, Andy

    2017-06-01

    The purpose of this study was to showcase an advanced methodological approach to model disability and institutional entry. Both of these are important areas to investigate given the on-going aging of the United States population. By 2020, approximately 15% of the population will be 65 years and older. Many of these older adults will experience disability and require formal care. A probit analysis was employed to determine which disabilities were associated with admission into an institution (i.e. long-term care). Since this framework imposes strong distributional assumptions, misspecification leads to inconsistent estimators. To overcome such a short-coming, this analysis extended the probit framework by employing an advanced semi-nonparamertic maximum likelihood estimation utilizing Hermite polynomial expansions. Specification tests show semi-nonparametric estimation is preferred over probit. In terms of the estimates, semi-nonparametric ratios equal 42 for cognitive difficulty, 64 for independent living, and 111 for self-care disability while probit yields much smaller estimates of 19, 30, and 44, respectively. Public health professionals can use these results to better understand why certain interventions have not shown promise. Equally important, healthcare workers can use this research to evaluate which type of treatment plans may delay institutionalization and improve the quality of life for older adults. Implications for rehabilitation With on-going global aging, understanding the association between disability and institutional entry is important in devising successful rehabilitation interventions. Semi-nonparametric is preferred to probit and shows ambulatory and cognitive impairments present high risk for institutional entry (long-term care). Informal caregiving and home-based care require further examination as forms of rehabilitation/therapy for certain types of disabilities.

  12. Comparison of multinomial logistic regression and logistic regression: which is more efficient in allocating land use?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Yingzhi; Deng, Xiangzheng; Li, Xing; Ma, Enjun

    2014-12-01

    Spatially explicit simulation of land use change is the basis for estimating the effects of land use and cover change on energy fluxes, ecology and the environment. At the pixel level, logistic regression is one of the most common approaches used in spatially explicit land use allocation models to determine the relationship between land use and its causal factors in driving land use change, and thereby to evaluate land use suitability. However, these models have a drawback in that they do not determine/allocate land use based on the direct relationship between land use change and its driving factors. Consequently, a multinomial logistic regression method was introduced to address this flaw, and thereby, judge the suitability of a type of land use in any given pixel in a case study area of the Jiangxi Province, China. A comparison of the two regression methods indicated that the proportion of correctly allocated pixels using multinomial logistic regression was 92.98%, which was 8.47% higher than that obtained using logistic regression. Paired t-test results also showed that pixels were more clearly distinguished by multinomial logistic regression than by logistic regression. In conclusion, multinomial logistic regression is a more efficient and accurate method for the spatial allocation of land use changes. The application of this method in future land use change studies may improve the accuracy of predicting the effects of land use and cover change on energy fluxes, ecology, and environment.

  13. Influencing Factors of Currency Risk of Deposit Banks in Turkey by Using Probit Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Serhat Yüksel

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we aimed to analyze the factors that affect currency risk of the banks. Within this scope, annual data of 23 deposit banks for the periods between 2005 and 2015 was evaluated. In addition to this situation, panel probit model was used in order to achieve this objective. Regarding the subject of the currency risk, this model was firstly used in this study. According to the results of the analysis, it was determined that 3 independent variables affect the currency risk of deposit banks in Turkey. Firstly, it was identified that there is a positive relationship between total assets and currency risk. This situation explains that when the size of the banks increases, they tend to take more currency risk. In addition to this variable, it was also defined that there is a direct relationship between economic growth and currency risk of the banks. This result refers that in case of an increment in the market stability; banks think that the market is safer and they increase their currency risk. Moreover, it was also concluded that there is a negative relationship between interest rate and currency risk of the banks. This aspect shows that when interest rate decreases, it will lower uncertainty in the market. Thus, banks would take higher currency risk in such markets.

  14. The Role of Wealth and Health in Insurance Choice: Bivariate Probit Analysis in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yiding Yue

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper captures the correlation between the choices of health insurance and pension insurance using the bivariate probit model and then studies the effect of wealth and health on insurance choice. Our empirical evidence shows that people who participate in a health care program are more likely to participate in a pension plan at the same time, while wealth and health have different effects on the choices of the health care program and the pension program. Generally, the higher an individual’s wealth level is, the more likelihood he will participate in a health care program; but wealth has no effect on the participation of pension. Health status has opposite effects on choices of health care programs and pension plans; the poorer an individual’s health is, the more likely he is to participate in health care programs, while the better health he enjoys, the more likely he is to participate in pension plans. When the investigation scope narrows down to commercial insurance, there is only a significant effect of health status on commercial health insurance. The commercial insurance choice and the insurance choice of the agricultural population are more complicated.

  15. The spatial Probit model-An application to the study of banking crises at the end of the 1990’s

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amaral, Andrea; Abreu, Margarida; Mendes, Victor

    2014-12-01

    We use a spatial Probit model to study the effect of contagion between banking systems of different countries. Applied to the late 1990s banking crisis in Asia we show that the phenomena of contagion is better seized using a spatial than a traditional Probit model. Unlike the latter, the spatial Probit model allows one to consider the cascade of cross and feedback effects of contagion that result from the outbreak of one initial crisis in one country or system. These contagion effects may result either from business connections between institutions of different countries or from institutional similarities between banking systems.

  16. How Much Math Do Students Need to Succeed in Business and Economics Statistics? An Ordered Probit Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Jeffrey J. Green; Courtenay C. Stone; Abera Zegeye; Thomas A. Charles

    2008-01-01

    Because statistical analysis requires both familiarity with and the ability to use mathematics, students typically are required to take one or more prerequisite math courses prior to enrolling in the business statistics course. Despite these math prerequisites, however, students find it extremely difficult to learn business statistics. In this study, we use an ordered probit model to examine the effect of alternative prerequisite math course sequences on the grade performance of 1,684 busines...

  17. Performance and separation occurrence of binary probit regression estimator using maximum likelihood method and Firths approach under different sample size

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lusiana, Evellin Dewi

    2017-12-01

    The parameters of binary probit regression model are commonly estimated by using Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) method. However, MLE method has limitation if the binary data contains separation. Separation is the condition where there are one or several independent variables that exactly grouped the categories in binary response. It will result the estimators of MLE method become non-convergent, so that they cannot be used in modeling. One of the effort to resolve the separation is using Firths approach instead. This research has two aims. First, to identify the chance of separation occurrence in binary probit regression model between MLE method and Firths approach. Second, to compare the performance of binary probit regression model estimator that obtained by MLE method and Firths approach using RMSE criteria. Those are performed using simulation method and under different sample size. The results showed that the chance of separation occurrence in MLE method for small sample size is higher than Firths approach. On the other hand, for larger sample size, the probability decreased and relatively identic between MLE method and Firths approach. Meanwhile, Firths estimators have smaller RMSE than MLEs especially for smaller sample sizes. But for larger sample sizes, the RMSEs are not much different. It means that Firths estimators outperformed MLE estimator.

  18. A public perspective on the adoption of microgeneration technologies in New Zealand: A multivariate probit approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baskaran, Ramesh; Managi, Shunsuke; Bendig, Mirko

    2013-01-01

    The growing demand for electricity in New Zealand has led to the construction of new hydro-dams or power stations that have had environmental, social and cultural effects. These effects may drive increases in electricity prices, as such prices reflect the cost of running existing power stations as well as building new ones. This study uses Canterbury and Central Otago as case studies because both regions face similar issues in building new hydro-dams and ever-increasing electricity prices that will eventually prompt households to buy power at higher prices. One way for households to respond to these price changes is to generate their own electricity through microgeneration technologies (MGT). The objective of this study is to investigate public perception and preferences regarding MGT and to analyze the factors that influence people’s decision to adopt such new technologies in New Zealand. The study uses a multivariate probit approach to examine households’ willingness to adopt any one MGT system or a combination of the MGT systems. Our findings provide valuable information for policy makers and marketers who wish to promote effective microgeneration technologies. - Highlights: ► We examine New Zealand households’ awareness level for microgeneration technologies (MGT) and empirically explore the factors that determine people’s willingness to adopt for MGT. ► The households are interested and willing to adopt the MGT systems. ► Noticeable heterogeneity exists between groups of households in adopting the MGT. ► No significant regional difference exists in promoting solar hot water policies. ► Public and private sectors incentives are important in promoting the MGT

  19. Measuring public understanding on Tenaga Nasional Berhad (TNB) electricity bills using ordered probit model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zainudin, WNRA; Ramli, NA

    2017-09-01

    In 2016, Tenaga Nasional Berhad (TNB) had introduced an upgrade in its Billing and Customer Relationship Management (BCRM) as part of its long-term initiative to provide its customers with greater access to billing information. This includes information on real and suggested power consumption by the customers and further details in their billing charges. This information is useful to help TNB customers to gain better understanding on their electricity usage patterns and items involved in their billing charges. Up to date, there are not many studies done to measure public understanding on current electricity bills and whether this understanding could contribute towards positive impacts. The purpose of this paper is to measure public understanding on current TNB electricity bills and whether their satisfaction towards energy-related services, electricity utility services, and their awareness on the amount of electricity consumed by various appliances and equipment in their home could improve this understanding on the electricity bills. Both qualitative and quantitative research methods are used to achieve these objectives. A total of 160 respondents from local universities in Malaysia participated in a survey used to collect relevant information. Using Ordered Probit model, this paper finds respondents that are highly satisfied with the electricity utility services tend to understand their electricity bills better. The electric utility services include management of electricity bills and the information obtained from utility or non-utility supplier to help consumers manage their energy usage or bills. Based on the results, this paper concludes that the probability to understand the components in the monthly electricity bill increases as respondents are more satisfied with their electric utility services and are more capable to value the energy-related services.

  20. Measuring public acceptance on renewable energy (RE) development in Malaysia using ordered probit model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zainudin, W. N. R. A.; Ishak, W. W. M.

    2017-09-01

    In 2009, government of Malaysia has announced a National Renewable Energy Policy and Action Plan as part of their commitment to accelerate the growth in renewable energies (RE). However, an adoption of RE as a main source of energy is still at an early stage due to lack of public awareness and acceptance on RE. Up to date, there are insufficient studies done on the reasons behind this lack of awareness and acceptance. Therefore, this paper is interested to investigate the public acceptance towards development of RE by measuring their willingness to pay slightly more for energy generated from RE sources, denote as willingness level and whether the importance for the electricity to be supplied at absolute lowest possible cost regardless of source and environmental impact, denote as importance level and other socio-economic factors could improve their willingness level. Both qualitative and quantitative research methods are used to achieve the research objectives. A total of 164 respondents from local universities in Malaysia participated in a survey to collect this relevant information. Using Ordered Probit model, the study shows that among the relevant socio-economic factors, age seems to be an important factor to influence the willingness level of the respondents. This paper concludes that younger generation are more willing to pay slightly more for energy generated from RE sources as compared to older generation. One of the possible reason may due to better information access by the younger generation on the RE issues and its positive implication to the world. Finding from this paper is useful to help policy maker in designing RE advocacy programs that would be able to secure public participation. These efforts are important to ensure future success of the RE policy.

  1. An Empirical Analysis of Television Commercial Ratings in Alternative Competitive Environments Using Multinomial Logit Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dilek ALTAŞ

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Watching the commercials depends on the choice of the viewer. Most of the television viewing takes place during “Prime-Time” unfortunately; many viewers opt to zap to other channels when commercials start. The television viewers’ demographic characteristics may indicate the likelihood of the zapping frequency. Analysis made by using Multinomial Logit Model indicates how effective the demographic variables are in the watching rate of the first minute of the television commercials.

  2. Health Care Facility Choice and User Fee Abolition: Regression Discontinuity in a Multinomial Choice Setting

    OpenAIRE

    Steven F. Koch; Jeffrey S. Racine

    2013-01-01

    We apply parametric and nonparametric regression discontinuity methodology within a multinomial choice setting to examine the impact of public health care user fee abolition on health facility choice using data from South Africa. The nonparametric model is found to outperform the parametric model both in- and out-of-sample, while also delivering more plausible estimates of the impact of user fee abolition (i.e. the 'treatment effect'). In the parametric framework, treatment effects were relat...

  3. Predicting longitudinal trajectories of health probabilities with random-effects multinomial logit regression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Xian; Engel, Charles C

    2012-12-20

    Researchers often encounter longitudinal health data characterized with three or more ordinal or nominal categories. Random-effects multinomial logit models are generally applied to account for potential lack of independence inherent in such clustered data. When parameter estimates are used to describe longitudinal processes, however, random effects, both between and within individuals, need to be retransformed for correctly predicting outcome probabilities. This study attempts to go beyond existing work by developing a retransformation method that derives longitudinal growth trajectories of unbiased health probabilities. We estimated variances of the predicted probabilities by using the delta method. Additionally, we transformed the covariates' regression coefficients on the multinomial logit function, not substantively meaningful, to the conditional effects on the predicted probabilities. The empirical illustration uses the longitudinal data from the Asset and Health Dynamics among the Oldest Old. Our analysis compared three sets of the predicted probabilities of three health states at six time points, obtained from, respectively, the retransformation method, the best linear unbiased prediction, and the fixed-effects approach. The results demonstrate that neglect of retransforming random errors in the random-effects multinomial logit model results in severely biased longitudinal trajectories of health probabilities as well as overestimated effects of covariates on the probabilities. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  4. Multinomial logistic models explaining income changes of migrants to high-amenity counties.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Von Reichert, C; Rudzitis, G

    1992-01-01

    "A survey of residents of and migrants to 15 fast-growing wilderness counties [in the United States] showed that only 25 percent of the migrants increased their income, while almost 50 percent accepted income losses upon their moves to high-amenity counties. Concomitantly, amenities and quality of life were more important factors in the migration decision than was employment, for instance. We focused on migrants in the labor force and employed multinomial logistic regression to identify the impact of migrants' characteristics, their satisfaction/dissatisfaction with previous location (push), and the importance of destination features (pull) on income change." excerpt

  5. A Spatial Probit Econometric Model of Land Change: The Case of Infrastructure Development in Western Amazonia, Peru

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arima, E. Y.

    2016-01-01

    Tropical forests are now at the center stage of climate mitigation policies worldwide given their roles as sources of carbon emissions resulting from deforestation and forest degradation. Although the international community has created mechanisms such as REDD+ to reduce those emissions, developing tropical countries continue to invest in infrastructure development in an effort to spur economic growth. Construction of roads in particular is known to be an important driver of deforestation. This article simulates the impact of road construction on deforestation in Western Amazonia, Peru, and quantifies the amount of carbon emissions associated with projected deforestation. To accomplish this objective, the article adopts a Bayesian probit land change model in which spatial dependencies are defined between regions or groups of pixels instead of between individual pixels, thereby reducing computational requirements. It also compares and contrasts the patterns of deforestation predicted by both spatial and non-spatial probit models. The spatial model replicates complex patterns of deforestation whereas the non-spatial model fails to do so. In terms of policy, both models suggest that road construction will increase deforestation by a modest amount, between 200–300 km2. This translates into aboveground carbon emissions of 1.36 and 1.85 x 106 tons. However, recent introduction of palm oil in the region serves as a cautionary example that the models may be underestimating the impact of roads. PMID:27010739

  6. A Spatial Probit Econometric Model of Land Change: The Case of Infrastructure Development in Western Amazonia, Peru.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E Y Arima

    Full Text Available Tropical forests are now at the center stage of climate mitigation policies worldwide given their roles as sources of carbon emissions resulting from deforestation and forest degradation. Although the international community has created mechanisms such as REDD+ to reduce those emissions, developing tropical countries continue to invest in infrastructure development in an effort to spur economic growth. Construction of roads in particular is known to be an important driver of deforestation. This article simulates the impact of road construction on deforestation in Western Amazonia, Peru, and quantifies the amount of carbon emissions associated with projected deforestation. To accomplish this objective, the article adopts a Bayesian probit land change model in which spatial dependencies are defined between regions or groups of pixels instead of between individual pixels, thereby reducing computational requirements. It also compares and contrasts the patterns of deforestation predicted by both spatial and non-spatial probit models. The spatial model replicates complex patterns of deforestation whereas the non-spatial model fails to do so. In terms of policy, both models suggest that road construction will increase deforestation by a modest amount, between 200-300 km2. This translates into aboveground carbon emissions of 1.36 and 1.85 x 106 tons. However, recent introduction of palm oil in the region serves as a cautionary example that the models may be underestimating the impact of roads.

  7. A Spatial Probit Econometric Model of Land Change: The Case of Infrastructure Development in Western Amazonia, Peru.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arima, E Y

    2016-01-01

    Tropical forests are now at the center stage of climate mitigation policies worldwide given their roles as sources of carbon emissions resulting from deforestation and forest degradation. Although the international community has created mechanisms such as REDD+ to reduce those emissions, developing tropical countries continue to invest in infrastructure development in an effort to spur economic growth. Construction of roads in particular is known to be an important driver of deforestation. This article simulates the impact of road construction on deforestation in Western Amazonia, Peru, and quantifies the amount of carbon emissions associated with projected deforestation. To accomplish this objective, the article adopts a Bayesian probit land change model in which spatial dependencies are defined between regions or groups of pixels instead of between individual pixels, thereby reducing computational requirements. It also compares and contrasts the patterns of deforestation predicted by both spatial and non-spatial probit models. The spatial model replicates complex patterns of deforestation whereas the non-spatial model fails to do so. In terms of policy, both models suggest that road construction will increase deforestation by a modest amount, between 200-300 km2. This translates into aboveground carbon emissions of 1.36 and 1.85 x 106 tons. However, recent introduction of palm oil in the region serves as a cautionary example that the models may be underestimating the impact of roads.

  8. Classification of Effective Soil Depth by Using Multinomial Logistic Regression Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, C. H.; Chan, H. C.; Chen, B. A.

    2016-12-01

    Classification of effective soil depth is a task of determining the slopeland utilizable limitation in Taiwan. The "Slopeland Conservation and Utilization Act" categorizes the slopeland into agriculture and husbandry land, land suitable for forestry and land for enhanced conservation according to the factors including average slope, effective soil depth, soil erosion and parental rock. However, sit investigation of the effective soil depth requires a cost-effective field work. This research aimed to classify the effective soil depth by using multinomial logistic regression with the environmental factors. The Wen-Shui Watershed located at the central Taiwan was selected as the study areas. The analysis of multinomial logistic regression is performed by the assistance of a Geographic Information Systems (GIS). The effective soil depth was categorized into four levels including deeper, deep, shallow and shallower. The environmental factors of slope, aspect, digital elevation model (DEM), curvature and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) were selected for classifying the soil depth. An Error Matrix was then used to assess the model accuracy. The results showed an overall accuracy of 75%. At the end, a map of effective soil depth was produced to help planners and decision makers in determining the slopeland utilizable limitation in the study areas.

  9. Extreme Sparse Multinomial Logistic Regression: A Fast and Robust Framework for Hyperspectral Image Classification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cao, Faxian; Yang, Zhijing; Ren, Jinchang; Ling, Wing-Kuen; Zhao, Huimin; Marshall, Stephen

    2017-12-01

    Although the sparse multinomial logistic regression (SMLR) has provided a useful tool for sparse classification, it suffers from inefficacy in dealing with high dimensional features and manually set initial regressor values. This has significantly constrained its applications for hyperspectral image (HSI) classification. In order to tackle these two drawbacks, an extreme sparse multinomial logistic regression (ESMLR) is proposed for effective classification of HSI. First, the HSI dataset is projected to a new feature space with randomly generated weight and bias. Second, an optimization model is established by the Lagrange multiplier method and the dual principle to automatically determine a good initial regressor for SMLR via minimizing the training error and the regressor value. Furthermore, the extended multi-attribute profiles (EMAPs) are utilized for extracting both the spectral and spatial features. A combinational linear multiple features learning (MFL) method is proposed to further enhance the features extracted by ESMLR and EMAPs. Finally, the logistic regression via the variable splitting and the augmented Lagrangian (LORSAL) is adopted in the proposed framework for reducing the computational time. Experiments are conducted on two well-known HSI datasets, namely the Indian Pines dataset and the Pavia University dataset, which have shown the fast and robust performance of the proposed ESMLR framework.

  10. Prospective memory after moderate-to-severe traumatic brain injury: a multinomial modeling approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pavawalla, Shital P; Schmitter-Edgecombe, Maureen; Smith, Rebekah E

    2012-01-01

    Prospective memory (PM), which can be understood as the processes involved in realizing a delayed intention, is consistently found to be impaired after a traumatic brain injury (TBI). Although PM can be empirically dissociated from retrospective memory, it inherently involves both a prospective component (i.e., remembering that an action needs to be carried out) and retrospective components (i.e., remembering what action needs to be executed and when). This study utilized a multinomial processing tree model to disentangle the prospective (that) and retrospective recognition (when) components underlying PM after moderate-to-severe TBI. Seventeen participants with moderate to severe TBI and 17 age- and education-matched control participants completed an event-based PM task that was embedded within an ongoing computer-based color-matching task. The multinomial processing tree modeling approach revealed a significant group difference in the prospective component, indicating that the control participants allocated greater preparatory attentional resources to the PM task compared to the TBI participants. Participants in the TBI group were also found to be significantly more impaired than controls in the when aspect of the retrospective component. These findings indicated that the TBI participants had greater difficulty allocating the necessary preparatory attentional resources to the PM task and greater difficulty discriminating between PM targets and nontargets during task execution, despite demonstrating intact posttest recall and/or recognition of the PM tasks and targets.

  11. Multinomial Response Models, for Modeling and Determining Important Factors in Different Contraceptive Methods in Women

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E Haji Nejad

    2001-06-01

    Full Text Available Difference aspects of multinomial statistical modelings and its classifications has been studied so far. In these type of problems Y is the qualitative random variable with T possible states which are considered as classifications. The goal is prediction of Y based on a random Vector X ? IR^m. Many methods for analyzing these problems were considered. One of the modern and general method of classification is Classification and Regression Trees (CART. Another method is recursive partitioning techniques which has a strange relationship with nonparametric regression. Classical discriminant analysis is a standard method for analyzing these type of data. Flexible discriminant analysis method which is a combination of nonparametric regression and discriminant analysis and classification using spline that includes least square regression and additive cubic splines. Neural network is an advanced statistical method for analyzing these types of data. In this paper properties of multinomial logistics regression were investigated and this method was used for modeling effective factors in selecting contraceptive methods in Ghom province for married women age 15-49. The response variable has a tetranomial distibution. The levels of this variable are: nothing, pills, traditional and a collection of other contraceptive methods. A collection of significant independent variables were: place, age of women, education, history of pregnancy and family size. Menstruation age and age at marriage were not statistically significant.

  12. Uncovering a latent multinomial: Analysis of mark-recapture data with misidentification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Link, W.A.; Yoshizaki, J.; Bailey, L.L.; Pollock, K.H.

    2010-01-01

    Natural tags based on DNA fingerprints or natural features of animals are now becoming very widely used in wildlife population biology. However, classic capture-recapture models do not allow for misidentification of animals which is a potentially very serious problem with natural tags. Statistical analysis of misidentification processes is extremely difficult using traditional likelihood methods but is easily handled using Bayesian methods. We present a general framework for Bayesian analysis of categorical data arising from a latent multinomial distribution. Although our work is motivated by a specific model for misidentification in closed population capture-recapture analyses, with crucial assumptions which may not always be appropriate, the methods we develop extend naturally to a variety of other models with similar structure. Suppose that observed frequencies f are a known linear transformation f = A???x of a latent multinomial variable x with cell probability vector ?? = ??(??). Given that full conditional distributions [?? | x] can be sampled, implementation of Gibbs sampling requires only that we can sample from the full conditional distribution [x | f, ??], which is made possible by knowledge of the null space of A???. We illustrate the approach using two data sets with individual misidentification, one simulated, the other summarizing recapture data for salamanders based on natural marks. ?? 2009, The International Biometric Society.

  13. Widen NomoGram for multinomial logistic regression: an application to staging liver fibrosis in chronic hepatitis C patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ardoino, Ilaria; Lanzoni, Monica; Marano, Giuseppe; Boracchi, Patrizia; Sagrini, Elisabetta; Gianstefani, Alice; Piscaglia, Fabio; Biganzoli, Elia M

    2017-04-01

    The interpretation of regression models results can often benefit from the generation of nomograms, 'user friendly' graphical devices especially useful for assisting the decision-making processes. However, in the case of multinomial regression models, whenever categorical responses with more than two classes are involved, nomograms cannot be drawn in the conventional way. Such a difficulty in managing and interpreting the outcome could often result in a limitation of the use of multinomial regression in decision-making support. In the present paper, we illustrate the derivation of a non-conventional nomogram for multinomial regression models, intended to overcome this issue. Although it may appear less straightforward at first sight, the proposed methodology allows an easy interpretation of the results of multinomial regression models and makes them more accessible for clinicians and general practitioners too. Development of prediction model based on multinomial logistic regression and of the pertinent graphical tool is illustrated by means of an example involving the prediction of the extent of liver fibrosis in hepatitis C patients by routinely available markers.

  14. The consumer’s choice among television displays: A multinomial logit approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos Giovanni González Espitia

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available The consumer’s choice over a bundle of products depends on observable and unobservable characteristics of goods and consumers. This choice is made in order to maximize utility subject to a budget constraint. At the same time, firms make product differentiation decisions to maximize profit. Quality is a form of differentiation. An example of this occurs in the TV market, where several displays are developed. Our objective is to determine the probability for a consumer of choosing a type of display from among five kinds: standard tube, LCD, plasma, projection and LED. Using a multinomial logit approach, we find that electronic appliances like DVDs and audio systems, as well as socioeconomic status, increase the probability of choosing a high-tech television display. Our empirical approximation contributes to further understanding rational consumer behavior through the theory of utility maximization and highlights the importance of studying market structure and analyzing changes in welfare and efficiency.

  15. Anàlisi cluster multinomial bayesià..Aplicació a dades electorals

    OpenAIRE

    Montón Domingo, Maria

    2009-01-01

    En aquest treball fi de màster se li vol donar una altra visió a les dades de resultats electorals, en concret, les del Parlament de Catalunya. Així doncs, l'eina d'anàlisi que s'utilitza és l'anàlisi clúster multinomial bayesià i les unitats d'estudi són les zones de recerca petita de la ciutat de Barcelona. D'aquesta manera es determina com s'agrupen les diferents zones de recerca petita de Barcelona des del punt de vista de les seves votacions i quina relació hi ha entre els partits en fun...

  16. Analysis of the liquidity risk in credit unions: a logit multinomial approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rosiane Maria Lima Gonçalves

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available Liquidity risk in financial institutions is associated to balance between working capital and financial demands. Other factors that affect credit union liquidity are an unanticipated increase of withdrawals without an offsetting amount of new deposits, and the lack of ability in promoting the product geographical diversification. The objective of this study is to analyze Minas Gerais state credit union liquidity risk and its factor determinants. Financial ratios and the multinomial logit model are used. The cooperatives were classified in five categories of liquidity risk: very low, low, medium, high and very high. The empirical results indicate that high levels of liquidity are related to smaller values of the outsourcing capital use, immobilization of the turnover capital, and provision ratios. So, they are associated to larger values of the deposit total/credit operations, and asset growth ratios.

  17. Testing independence between two Poisson-generated multinomial variables in case-series and cohort studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hocine, Mounia; Guillemot, Didier; Tubert-Bitter, Pascale; Moreau, Thierry

    2005-12-30

    In case-series or cohort studies, we propose a test of independence between the occurrences of two types of recurrent events (such as two repeated infections) related to an intermittent exposure (such as an antibiotic treatment). The test relies upon an extension of a recent method for analysing case-series data, in the presence of one type of recurrent event. The test statistic is derived from a bivariate Poisson generated-multinomial distribution. Simulations for checking the validity of the test concerning the type I error and the power properties are presented. The test is illustrated using data from a cohort on antibiotics bacterial resistance in schoolchildren. Copyright 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  18. Multinomial Bayesian learning for modeling classical and nonclassical receptive field properties.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hosoya, Haruo

    2012-08-01

    We study the interplay of Bayesian inference and natural image learning in a hierarchical vision system, in relation to the response properties of early visual cortex. We particularly focus on a Bayesian network with multinomial variables that can represent discrete feature spaces similar to hypercolumns combining minicolumns, enforce sparsity of activation to learn efficient representations, and explain divisive normalization. We demonstrate that maximal-likelihood learning using sampling-based Bayesian inference gives rise to classical receptive field properties similar to V1 simple cells and V2 cells, while inference performed on the trained network yields nonclassical context-dependent response properties such as cross-orientation suppression and filling in. Comparison with known physiological properties reveals some qualitative and quantitative similarities.

  19. Identifying the Factors Influence Turkish Deposit Banks to Join Corporate Social Responsibility Activities by Using Panel Probit Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Serhat Yuksel

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to determine the influencing factors of the banks to join corporate social responsibility activities. Within this scope, annual data of 23 deposit banks in Turkey for the periods between 2005 and 2015 was taken into the consideration. In addition to this situation, panel probit model was used in the analysis so as to achieve this objective. According to the results of the analysis, it was determined that there is a negative relationship between CSR activities and nonperforming loans ratio. This situation shows that banks do not prefer to make social responsibility activities in case of higher financial losses. In addition to this situation, it was also identified that there is a positive relationship between return on asset and corporate social responsibility activities of the banks. In other words, it can be understood that Turkish deposit banks, which have higher profitability, joint more CSR activities in comparison with others.

  20. The empathy impulse: A multinomial model of intentional and unintentional empathy for pain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cameron, C Daryl; Spring, Victoria L; Todd, Andrew R

    2017-04-01

    Empathy for pain is often described as automatic. Here, we used implicit measurement and multinomial modeling to formally quantify unintentional empathy for pain: empathy that occurs despite intentions to the contrary. We developed the pain identification task (PIT), a sequential priming task wherein participants judge the painfulness of target experiences while trying to avoid the influence of prime experiences. Using multinomial modeling, we distinguished 3 component processes underlying PIT performance: empathy toward target stimuli (Intentional Empathy), empathy toward prime stimuli (Unintentional Empathy), and bias to judge target stimuli as painful (Response Bias). In Experiment 1, imposing a fast (vs. slow) response deadline uniquely reduced Intentional Empathy. In Experiment 2, inducing imagine-self (vs. imagine-other) perspective-taking uniquely increased Unintentional Empathy. In Experiment 3, Intentional and Unintentional Empathy were stronger toward targets with typical (vs. atypical) pain outcomes, suggesting that outcome information matters and that effects on the PIT are not reducible to affective priming. Typicality of pain outcomes more weakly affected task performance when target stimuli were merely categorized rather than judged for painfulness, suggesting that effects on the latter are not reducible to semantic priming. In Experiment 4, Unintentional Empathy was stronger for participants who engaged in costly donation to cancer charities, but this parameter was also high for those who donated to an objectively worse but socially more popular charity, suggesting that overly high empathy may facilitate maladaptive altruism. Theoretical and practical applications of our modeling approach for understanding variation in empathy are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  1. DETERMINATION OF FACTORS AFFECTING LENGTH OF STAY WITH MULTINOMIAL LOGISTIC REGRESSION IN TURKEY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Öğr. Gör. Rukiye NUMAN TEKİN

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Length of stay (LOS has important implications in various aspects of health services, can vary according to a wide range of factors. It is noticed that LOS has been neglected mostly in both theoratical studies and practice of health care management in Turkey. The main purpose of this study is to identify factors related to LOS in Turkey. A retrospective analysis of 2.255.836 patients hospitalized to private, university, foundation university and other (municipality, association and foreigners/minority hospitals hospitals which have an agreement with Social Security Institution (SSI in Turkey, from January 1, 2010, until the December 31, 2010, was examined. Patient’s data were taken from MEDULA (National Electronic Invoice System and SPSS 18.0 was used to perform statistical analysis. In this study t-test, one way anova and multinomial logistic regression are used to determine variables that may affect to LOS. The average LOS of patients was 3,93 days (SD = 5,882. LOS showed a statistically significant difference according to all independent variables used in the study (age, gender, disease class, type of hospitalization, presence of comorbidity, type and number of surgery, season of hospitalization, hospital ownership/bed capacity/ geographical region/residential area/type of service. According to the results of the multinomial lojistic regression analysis, LOS was negatively affected in terms of gender, presence of comorbidity, geographical region of hospital and was positively affected in terms of age, season of hospitalization, hospital bed capacity/ ownership/type of service/residential area.

  2. Ordered Probit Analysis of Consumers’ Preferences for Milk and Meat Quality Attributes in the Emerging Cities of Southern India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. PRIYADHARSINI

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available In order to assess consumer preferences for milk and meat quality attributes, a study was carried out in two Second-Tier cities of Tamil Nadu. Personal interviews were done to collect the data from 160 respondents chosen through a multistage sampling procedure in each of the two cities selected for this study. Ordered Probit model fitted for the attributes of milk showed that: family size had a significant positive preference towards texture, low fat and low price of milk, educated consumers paid greater attention to taste, safety, flavour, packaging and low fat attributes of milk and low income consumers paid less importance on most of the attributes of milk. Ordered Probit model for meat revealed that as the family size increased, the consumers were likely to give more importance to ageing and tenderness and less importance to leanness of meat. Male consumers paid greater attention to colour and females were none concerned with tenderness, cooking quality and price. As the education level increased, the consumers became more and more quality and price conscious. Households having children paid more importance to tenderness and taste attributes of meat, whereas the household having aged people opted for colour, taste, tenderness, cooking quality, leanness and price attributes. Low income consumers paid less importance to quality attributes and the respondents performing more physical activity paid lesser attention towards leanness and more importance to price of the meat. This suggests the need for enhancing the production of quality livestock products, together by developing a well-organized distribution system.

  3. PROBIT MODEL ANALYSIS OF SMALLHOLDER’S FARMERS DECISION TO USE AGROCHEMICAL INPUTS IN GWAGWALADA AND KUJE AREA COUNCILS OF FEDERAL CAPITAL TERRITORY, ABUJA, NIGERIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Omotayo Olugbenga Alabi

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This study examined Probit model analysis of smallholder’s farmers decision to use agrochemical inputs in Gwagwalada and Kuje Area Councils of Federal Capital Territory, Abuja, Nigeria. Primary data were used for this study. Data were obtained using structured questionnaire. The questionnaires were administered to sixty smallholder’s farmers sampled using a two-stage sampling technique. Data obtained were analyzed using descriptive statistics and Probit model. Eight estimators, age; farm-size; education–level; extension services; access to credit; off-farm income; experiences in farming; in the Probit model were found statistically significant. Results show that the probability of using agrochemical inputs increases with age; farm-size; family-size; education-level; extension services; experiences in farming but decreases where they have off-farm income and access to credits. Mc Fadden Pseudo-R 2 gives 0.6866 and Probit model correctly classified 93%. This study concluded that capacity of agricultural extension agents needs to be improved in the study area to educate farmers to invest in agrochemicals and improved agricultural technologies. Also, Government needs to improve on good road networks and appropriate policies to regulate standard, use, safety needs and environment of use of agrochemicals in the study area.

  4. Logit and probit model in toll sensitivity analysis of Solo-Ngawi, Kartasura-Palang Joglo segment based on Willingness to Pay (WTP)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Handayani, Dewi; Cahyaning Putri, Hera; Mahmudah, AMH

    2017-12-01

    Solo-Ngawi toll road project is part of the mega project of the Trans Java toll road development initiated by the government and is still under construction until now. PT Solo Ngawi Jaya (SNJ) as the Solo-Ngawi toll management company needs to determine the toll fare that is in accordance with the business plan. The determination of appropriate toll rates will affect progress in regional economic sustainability and decrease the traffic congestion. These policy instruments is crucial for achieving environmentally sustainable transport. Therefore, the objective of this research is to find out how the toll fare sensitivity of Solo-Ngawi toll road based on Willingness To Pay (WTP). Primary data was obtained by distributing stated preference questionnaires to four wheeled vehicle users in Kartasura-Palang Joglo artery road segment. Further data obtained will be analysed with logit and probit model. Based on the analysis, it is found that the effect of fare change on the amount of WTP on the binomial logit model is more sensitive than the probit model on the same travel conditions. The range of tariff change against values of WTP on the binomial logit model is 20% greater than the range of values in the probit model . On the other hand, the probability results of the binomial logit model and the binary probit have no significant difference (less than 1%).

  5. "The empathy impulse: A multinomial model of intentional and unintentional empathy for pain": Correction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2018-04-01

    Reports an error in "The empathy impulse: A multinomial model of intentional and unintentional empathy for pain" by C. Daryl Cameron, Victoria L. Spring and Andrew R. Todd ( Emotion , 2017[Apr], Vol 17[3], 395-411). In this article, there was an error in the calculation of some of the effect sizes. The w effect size was manually computed incorrectly. The incorrect number of total observations was used, which affected the final effect size estimates. This computing error does not change any of the results or interpretations about model fit based on the G² statistic, or about significant differences across conditions in process parameters. Therefore, it does not change any of the hypothesis tests or conclusions. The w statistics for overall model fit should be .02 instead of .04 in Study 1, .01 instead of .02 in Study 2, .01 instead of .03 for the OIT in Study 3 (model fit for the PIT remains the same: .00), and .02 instead of .03 in Study 4. The corrected tables can be seen here: http://osf.io/qebku at the Open Science Framework site for the article. (The following abstract of the original article appeared in record 2017-01641-001.) Empathy for pain is often described as automatic. Here, we used implicit measurement and multinomial modeling to formally quantify unintentional empathy for pain: empathy that occurs despite intentions to the contrary. We developed the pain identification task (PIT), a sequential priming task wherein participants judge the painfulness of target experiences while trying to avoid the influence of prime experiences. Using multinomial modeling, we distinguished 3 component processes underlying PIT performance: empathy toward target stimuli (Intentional Empathy), empathy toward prime stimuli (Unintentional Empathy), and bias to judge target stimuli as painful (Response Bias). In Experiment 1, imposing a fast (vs. slow) response deadline uniquely reduced Intentional Empathy. In Experiment 2, inducing imagine-self (vs. imagine

  6. Using multinomial and imprecise probability for non-parametric modelling of rainfall in Manizales (Colombia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ibsen Chivatá Cárdenas

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available This article presents a rainfall model constructed by applying non-parametric modelling and imprecise probabilities; these tools were used because there was not enough homogeneous information in the study area. The area’s hydro-logical information regarding rainfall was scarce and existing hydrological time series were not uniform. A distributed extended rainfall model was constructed from so-called probability boxes (p-boxes, multinomial probability distribu-tion and confidence intervals (a friendly algorithm was constructed for non-parametric modelling by combining the last two tools. This model confirmed the high level of uncertainty involved in local rainfall modelling. Uncertainty en-compassed the whole range (domain of probability values thereby showing the severe limitations on information, leading to the conclusion that a detailed estimation of probability would lead to significant error. Nevertheless, rele-vant information was extracted; it was estimated that maximum daily rainfall threshold (70 mm would be surpassed at least once every three years and the magnitude of uncertainty affecting hydrological parameter estimation. This paper’s conclusions may be of interest to non-parametric modellers and decisions-makers as such modelling and imprecise probability represents an alternative for hydrological variable assessment and maybe an obligatory proce-dure in the future. Its potential lies in treating scarce information and represents a robust modelling strategy for non-seasonal stochastic modelling conditions

  7. Model-based Clustering of Categorical Time Series with Multinomial Logit Classification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frühwirth-Schnatter, Sylvia; Pamminger, Christoph; Winter-Ebmer, Rudolf; Weber, Andrea

    2010-09-01

    A common problem in many areas of applied statistics is to identify groups of similar time series in a panel of time series. However, distance-based clustering methods cannot easily be extended to time series data, where an appropriate distance-measure is rather difficult to define, particularly for discrete-valued time series. Markov chain clustering, proposed by Pamminger and Frühwirth-Schnatter [6], is an approach for clustering discrete-valued time series obtained by observing a categorical variable with several states. This model-based clustering method is based on finite mixtures of first-order time-homogeneous Markov chain models. In order to further explain group membership we present an extension to the approach of Pamminger and Frühwirth-Schnatter [6] by formulating a probabilistic model for the latent group indicators within the Bayesian classification rule by using a multinomial logit model. The parameters are estimated for a fixed number of clusters within a Bayesian framework using an Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling scheme representing a (full) Gibbs-type sampler which involves only draws from standard distributions. Finally, an application to a panel of Austrian wage mobility data is presented which leads to an interesting segmentation of the Austrian labour market.

  8. COMPARACION DE 13 INTERVALOS DE CONFIANZA PARA LOS PARAMETROS DE LA DISTRIBUCION MULTINOMIAL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Difariney González-Gómez

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available La distribución multinomial es fundamental para la descripción de fenómenos en los que pueden ocurrir k > 2 eventos excluyentes, cada uno con probabilidad π = (π1, π2, . . . , πk. Algunos ejemplos de esta distribución incluyen la calidad de un producto o encuestas de selección múltiple. Un problema de gran interés en inferencia estadística es la construcción de intervalos de confianza los parámetros para π. En este trabajo se comparan, a través de un estudio de simulación, 13 metodologías para la construcción de intervalos de confianza para dicha distribución. Utilizando como criterios de comparación el nivel de confianza nominal, la longitud del intervalo y una combinación de estos, se encuentra que los intervalos de confianza basados en el Teorema del Límite Central no presentan el mejor desempeño. Finalmente se recomiendan los métodos basados en la distribución F (Leemis, 1996, seguido del método de verosimilitud relativa (Kalbfleish, 1985 y Quesenberry & Hurst (1964.

  9. Multinomial logistic regression analysis for differentiating 3 treatment outcome trajectory groups for headache-associated disability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis, Kristin Nicole; Heckman, Bernadette Davantes; Himawan, Lina

    2011-08-01

    Growth mixture modeling (GMM) identified latent groups based on treatment outcome trajectories of headache disability measures in patients in headache subspecialty treatment clinics. Using a longitudinal design, 219 patients in headache subspecialty clinics in 4 large cities throughout Ohio provided data on their headache disability at pretreatment and 3 follow-up assessments. GMM identified 3 treatment outcome trajectory groups: (1) patients who initiated treatment with elevated disability levels and who reported statistically significant reductions in headache disability (high-disability improvers; 11%); (2) patients who initiated treatment with elevated disability but who reported no reductions in disability (high-disability nonimprovers; 34%); and (3) patients who initiated treatment with moderate disability and who reported statistically significant reductions in headache disability (moderate-disability improvers; 55%). Based on the final multinomial logistic regression model, a dichotomized treatment appointment attendance variable was a statistically significant predictor for differentiating high-disability improvers from high-disability nonimprovers. Three-fourths of patients who initiated treatment with elevated disability levels did not report reductions in disability after 5 months of treatment with new preventive pharmacotherapies. Preventive headache agents may be most efficacious for patients with moderate levels of disability and for patients with high disability levels who attend all treatment appointments. Copyright © 2011 International Association for the Study of Pain. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. Work Intensity of Households: Multinomial Logit Analysis and Correspondence Analysis for Slovak Republic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erik Šoltés

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Exclusion from the labour market is a serious social problem that is also addressed by the Europe 2020 strategy. While in the past the attention of statisticians and sociologists in the fight against poverty and social exclusion has concentrated mainly on income poverty and material deprivation, in recent times many studies and analyses are much more focused on work intensity as well. Households that use their work potential to less than 20%, have a very low work intensity, and members of such households are included into the population of people who are at risk of poverty or social exclusion. Moreover, the low use of labour potential of households significantly increases the risk of income poverty and the threat of material deprivation. This article provides an analysis of work intensity levels of Slovak households depending on the factors that are monitored by the EU-SILC 2015. The impact of relevant factors is quantified by correspondence analysis and by multinomial logistic regression model.

  11. The outcome of tuberculosis treatment in subjects with chronic kidney disease in Brazil: a multinomial analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Barbara Reis-Santos

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: To analyze the association between clinical/epidemiological characteristics and outcomes of tuberculosis treatment in patients with concomitant tuberculosis and chronic kidney disease (CKD in Brazil. METHODS: We used the Brazilian Ministry of Health National Case Registry Database to identify patients with tuberculosis and CKD, treated between 2007 and 2011. The tuberculosis treatment outcomes were compared with epidemiological and clinical characteristics of the subjects using a hierarchical multinomial logistic regression model, in which cure was the reference outcome. RESULTS: The prevalence of CKD among patients with tuberculosis was 0.4% (95% CI: 0.37-0.42%. The sample comprised 1,077 subjects. The outcomes were cure, in 58%; treatment abandonment, in 7%; death from tuberculosis, in 13%; and death from other causes, in 22%. The characteristics that differentiated the ORs for treatment abandonment or death were age; alcoholism; AIDS; previous noncompliance with treatment; transfer to another facility; suspected tuberculosis on chest X-ray; positive results in the first smear microscopy; and indications for/use of directly observed treatment, short-course strategy. CONCLUSIONS: Our data indicate the importance of sociodemographic characteristics for the diagnosis of tuberculosis in patients with CKD and underscore the need for tuberculosis control strategies targeting patients with chronic noncommunicable diseases, such as CKD.

  12. Predictive occurrence models for coastal wetland plant communities: delineating hydrologic response surfaces with multinomial logistic regression

    Science.gov (United States)

    Snedden, Gregg A.; Steyer, Gregory D.

    2013-01-01

    Understanding plant community zonation along estuarine stress gradients is critical for effective conservation and restoration of coastal wetland ecosystems. We related the presence of plant community types to estuarine hydrology at 173 sites across coastal Louisiana. Percent relative cover by species was assessed at each site near the end of the growing season in 2008, and hourly water level and salinity were recorded at each site Oct 2007–Sep 2008. Nine plant community types were delineated with k-means clustering, and indicator species were identified for each of the community types with indicator species analysis. An inverse relation between salinity and species diversity was observed. Canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) effectively segregated the sites across ordination space by community type, and indicated that salinity and tidal amplitude were both important drivers of vegetation composition. Multinomial logistic regression (MLR) and Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC) were used to predict the probability of occurrence of the nine vegetation communities as a function of salinity and tidal amplitude, and probability surfaces obtained from the MLR model corroborated the CCA results. The weighted kappa statistic, calculated from the confusion matrix of predicted versus actual community types, was 0.7 and indicated good agreement between observed community types and model predictions. Our results suggest that models based on a few key hydrologic variables can be valuable tools for predicting vegetation community development when restoring and managing coastal wetlands.

  13. Predictive occurrence models for coastal wetland plant communities: Delineating hydrologic response surfaces with multinomial logistic regression

    Science.gov (United States)

    Snedden, Gregg A.; Steyer, Gregory D.

    2013-02-01

    Understanding plant community zonation along estuarine stress gradients is critical for effective conservation and restoration of coastal wetland ecosystems. We related the presence of plant community types to estuarine hydrology at 173 sites across coastal Louisiana. Percent relative cover by species was assessed at each site near the end of the growing season in 2008, and hourly water level and salinity were recorded at each site Oct 2007-Sep 2008. Nine plant community types were delineated with k-means clustering, and indicator species were identified for each of the community types with indicator species analysis. An inverse relation between salinity and species diversity was observed. Canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) effectively segregated the sites across ordination space by community type, and indicated that salinity and tidal amplitude were both important drivers of vegetation composition. Multinomial logistic regression (MLR) and Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC) were used to predict the probability of occurrence of the nine vegetation communities as a function of salinity and tidal amplitude, and probability surfaces obtained from the MLR model corroborated the CCA results. The weighted kappa statistic, calculated from the confusion matrix of predicted versus actual community types, was 0.7 and indicated good agreement between observed community types and model predictions. Our results suggest that models based on a few key hydrologic variables can be valuable tools for predicting vegetation community development when restoring and managing coastal wetlands.

  14. Assessing characteristics related to the use of seatbelts and cell phones by drivers: application of a bivariate probit model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russo, Brendan J; Kay, Jonathan J; Savolainen, Peter T; Gates, Timothy J

    2014-06-01

    The effects of cell phone use and safety belt use have been an important focus of research related to driver safety. Cell phone use has been shown to be a significant source of driver distraction contributing to substantial degradations in driver performance, while safety belts have been demonstrated to play a vital role in mitigating injuries to crash-involved occupants. This study examines the prevalence of cell phone use and safety belt non-use among the driving population through direct observation surveys. A bivariate probit model is developed to simultaneously examine the factors that affect cell phone and safety belt use among motor vehicle drivers. The results show that several factors may influence drivers' decision to use cell phones and safety belts, and that these decisions are correlated. Understanding the factors that affect both cell phone use and safety belt non-use is essential to targeting policy and programs that reduce such behavior. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Exploring the Factors that Impact on Transit Use through an Ordered Probit Model: the Case of Metro of Madrid

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eboli, L.; Forciniti, C.; Mazzulla, G.; Calvo, F.

    2016-07-01

    The configuration of urban areas is the result of a cyclic relationship between land use and transportation system: the changes in transportation system arrangements influence the localisation of residence and economic activities, as well as the changes in land use affect transportation system characteristics. In this context, by operating on land use, travel demand can be shift from the individual transportation modes to transit systems. In the literature, many conceptual models were proposed to describe the complex relationship between land use and travel behaviour. In addition to spatial variation, the study of travel demand shows the categorical variation of variables. This work aims to analyse the influence of the categorical variation of variables impacting on transit use. An ordered probit model is proposed for evaluating how transit use depends on variables related to socio-economic characteristics of population, territorial features, accessibility, and transportation system. The study case is Madrid metro network (Spain). The results show a strong influence of characteristics of population and land use variables on daily trips made using metro system and highlighted the aspects that mainly impact on the choice to travel by metro, providing useful suggestions for shifting people from individual transportation mode to transit systems. (Author)

  16. The Effect of Task Duration on Event-Based Prospective Memory: A Multinomial Modeling Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hongxia Zhang

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Remembering to perform an action when a specific event occurs is referred to as Event-Based Prospective Memory (EBPM. This study investigated how EBPM performance is affected by task duration by having university students (n = 223 perform an EBPM task that was embedded within an ongoing computer-based color-matching task. For this experiment, we separated the overall task’s duration into the filler task duration and the ongoing task duration. The filler task duration is the length of time between the intention and the beginning of the ongoing task, and the ongoing task duration is the length of time between the beginning of the ongoing task and the appearance of the first Prospective Memory (PM cue. The filler task duration and ongoing task duration were further divided into three levels: 3, 6, and 9 min. Two factors were then orthogonally manipulated between-subjects using a multinomial processing tree model to separate the effects of different task durations on the two EBPM components. A mediation model was then created to verify whether task duration influences EBPM via self-reminding or discrimination. The results reveal three points. (1 Lengthening the duration of ongoing tasks had a negative effect on EBPM performance while lengthening the duration of the filler task had no significant effect on it. (2 As the filler task was lengthened, both the prospective and retrospective components show a decreasing and then increasing trend. Also, when the ongoing task duration was lengthened, the prospective component decreased while the retrospective component significantly increased. (3 The mediating effect of discrimination between the task duration and EBPM performance was significant. We concluded that different task durations influence EBPM performance through different components with discrimination being the mediator between task duration and EBPM performance.

  17. Multinomial N-mixture models improve the applicability of electrofishing for developing population estimates of stream-dwelling Smallmouth Bass

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mollenhauer, Robert; Brewer, Shannon K.

    2017-01-01

    Failure to account for variable detection across survey conditions constrains progressive stream ecology and can lead to erroneous stream fish management and conservation decisions. In addition to variable detection’s confounding long-term stream fish population trends, reliable abundance estimates across a wide range of survey conditions are fundamental to establishing species–environment relationships. Despite major advancements in accounting for variable detection when surveying animal populations, these approaches remain largely ignored by stream fish scientists, and CPUE remains the most common metric used by researchers and managers. One notable advancement for addressing the challenges of variable detection is the multinomial N-mixture model. Multinomial N-mixture models use a flexible hierarchical framework to model the detection process across sites as a function of covariates; they also accommodate common fisheries survey methods, such as removal and capture–recapture. Effective monitoring of stream-dwelling Smallmouth Bass Micropterus dolomieu populations has long been challenging; therefore, our objective was to examine the use of multinomial N-mixture models to improve the applicability of electrofishing for estimating absolute abundance. We sampled Smallmouth Bass populations by using tow-barge electrofishing across a range of environmental conditions in streams of the Ozark Highlands ecoregion. Using an information-theoretic approach, we identified effort, water clarity, wetted channel width, and water depth as covariates that were related to variable Smallmouth Bass electrofishing detection. Smallmouth Bass abundance estimates derived from our top model consistently agreed with baseline estimates obtained via snorkel surveys. Additionally, confidence intervals from the multinomial N-mixture models were consistently more precise than those of unbiased Petersen capture–recapture estimates due to the dependency among data sets in the

  18. Modeling vehicle operating speed on urban roads in Montreal: a panel mixed ordered probit fractional split model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eluru, Naveen; Chakour, Vincent; Chamberlain, Morgan; Miranda-Moreno, Luis F

    2013-10-01

    that the proposed panel mixed ordered probit fractional split model offers promise for modeling such proportional ordinal variables. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Multinomial Logistic Regression & Bootstrapping for Bayesian Estimation of Vertical Facies Prediction in Heterogeneous Sandstone Reservoirs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Mudhafar, W. J.

    2013-12-01

    Precisely prediction of rock facies leads to adequate reservoir characterization by improving the porosity-permeability relationships to estimate the properties in non-cored intervals. It also helps to accurately identify the spatial facies distribution to perform an accurate reservoir model for optimal future reservoir performance. In this paper, the facies estimation has been done through Multinomial logistic regression (MLR) with respect to the well logs and core data in a well in upper sandstone formation of South Rumaila oil field. The entire independent variables are gamma rays, formation density, water saturation, shale volume, log porosity, core porosity, and core permeability. Firstly, Robust Sequential Imputation Algorithm has been considered to impute the missing data. This algorithm starts from a complete subset of the dataset and estimates sequentially the missing values in an incomplete observation by minimizing the determinant of the covariance of the augmented data matrix. Then, the observation is added to the complete data matrix and the algorithm continues with the next observation with missing values. The MLR has been chosen to estimate the maximum likelihood and minimize the standard error for the nonlinear relationships between facies & core and log data. The MLR is used to predict the probabilities of the different possible facies given each independent variable by constructing a linear predictor function having a set of weights that are linearly combined with the independent variables by using a dot product. Beta distribution of facies has been considered as prior knowledge and the resulted predicted probability (posterior) has been estimated from MLR based on Baye's theorem that represents the relationship between predicted probability (posterior) with the conditional probability and the prior knowledge. To assess the statistical accuracy of the model, the bootstrap should be carried out to estimate extra-sample prediction error by randomly

  20. Migration plans of the rural populations of the Third World countries: a probit analysis of micro-level data from Asia, Africa, and Latin America.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mcdevitt, T M; Hawley, A H; Udry, J R; Gadalla, S; Leoprapai, B; Cardona, R

    1986-07-01

    This study 1) examines the extent to which a given set of microlevel factors has predictive value in different socioeconomic settings and 2) demonstrates the utility of a probit estimation technique in examining plans of rural populations to migrate. Data were collected in 1977-1979 in Thailand, Egypt, and Colombia, 3 countries which differ in culture, extent of urbanization, and proportion of labor force engaged in nonextractive industries. The researchers used identical questionnaires and obtained interviews in 4 rural villages with the "migration shed" of each country's capital city. There were 1088 rural-resident men and women interviewed in Thailand, 1088 in Colombia, and 1376 in Egypt. The researchers gathered information about year-to-year changes in residence, marital status, fertility, housing, employment status, occupation, and industry. While in all 3 countries return moves are relatively frequent, especially among males, the proportions of migrants who have moved 3 or more times do not rise above 10%. The model used portrays the formation of migration intentions of the individual as the outcome of a decision process involving the subjective weighing of perceived differentials in well-being associated with current residence and 1 or more potential destinations, taking into account the direct relocation costs and ability to finance a move. The researchers used dichotomous probit and ordinal probit techniques and 4 variations on the dependant variable to generate some of the results. The only expectancy variable significant in all countries is age. Education is also positively and significantly associated with intentions to move for both sexes in Colombia and Egypt. Marital status is a deterrent to migration plans for males in Colombia and both sexes in Egypt. Previous migration experience fails to show any significant relationship to propensity to move. Conclusions drawn from the data include: 1) the effects of age and economic status appear to increase

  1. A probit- log- skew-normal mixture model for repeated measures data with excess zeros, with application to a cohort study of paediatric respiratory symptoms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Johnston Neil W

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background A zero-inflated continuous outcome is characterized by occurrence of "excess" zeros that more than a single distribution can explain, with the positive observations forming a skewed distribution. Mixture models are employed for regression analysis of zero-inflated data. Moreover, for repeated measures zero-inflated data the clustering structure should also be modeled for an adequate analysis. Methods Diary of Asthma and Viral Infections Study (DAVIS was a one year (2004 cohort study conducted at McMaster University to monitor viral infection and respiratory symptoms in children aged 5-11 years with and without asthma. Respiratory symptoms were recorded daily using either an Internet or paper-based diary. Changes in symptoms were assessed by study staff and led to collection of nasal fluid specimens for virological testing. The study objectives included investigating the response of respiratory symptoms to respiratory viral infection in children with and without asthma over a one year period. Due to sparse data daily respiratory symptom scores were aggregated into weekly average scores. More than 70% of the weekly average scores were zero, with the positive scores forming a skewed distribution. We propose a random effects probit/log-skew-normal mixture model to analyze the DAVIS data. The model parameters were estimated using a maximum marginal likelihood approach. A simulation study was conducted to assess the performance of the proposed mixture model if the underlying distribution of the positive response is different from log-skew normal. Results Viral infection status was highly significant in both probit and log-skew normal model components respectively. The probability of being symptom free was much lower for the week a child was viral positive relative to the week she/he was viral negative. The severity of the symptoms was also greater for the week a child was viral positive. The probability of being symptom free was

  2. Modeling the dynamics of urban growth using multinomial logistic regression: a case study of Jiayu County, Hubei Province, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nong, Yu; Du, Qingyun; Wang, Kun; Miao, Lei; Zhang, Weiwei

    2008-10-01

    Urban growth modeling, one of the most important aspects of land use and land cover change study, has attracted substantial attention because it helps to comprehend the mechanisms of land use change thus helps relevant policies made. This study applied multinomial logistic regression to model urban growth in the Jiayu county of Hubei province, China to discover the relationship between urban growth and the driving forces of which biophysical and social-economic factors are selected as independent variables. This type of regression is similar to binary logistic regression, but it is more general because the dependent variable is not restricted to two categories, as those previous studies did. The multinomial one can simulate the process of multiple land use competition between urban land, bare land, cultivated land and orchard land. Taking the land use type of Urban as reference category, parameters could be estimated with odds ratio. A probability map is generated from the model to predict where urban growth will occur as a result of the computation.

  3. Multinomial logistic regression modelling of obesity and overweight among primary school students in a rural area of Negeri Sembilan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ghazali, Amirul Syafiq Mohd; Ali, Zalila; Noor, Norlida Mohd; Baharum, Adam [Pusat Pengajian Sains Matematik, Universiti Sains Malaysia, 11800 USM, Pulau Pinang, Malaysia amirul@unisel.edu.my, zalila@cs.usm.my, norlida@usm.my, adam@usm.my (Malaysia)

    2015-10-22

    Multinomial logistic regression is widely used to model the outcomes of a polytomous response variable, a categorical dependent variable with more than two categories. The model assumes that the conditional mean of the dependent categorical variables is the logistic function of an affine combination of predictor variables. Its procedure gives a number of logistic regression models that make specific comparisons of the response categories. When there are q categories of the response variable, the model consists of q-1 logit equations which are fitted simultaneously. The model is validated by variable selection procedures, tests of regression coefficients, a significant test of the overall model, goodness-of-fit measures, and validation of predicted probabilities using odds ratio. This study used the multinomial logistic regression model to investigate obesity and overweight among primary school students in a rural area on the basis of their demographic profiles, lifestyles and on the diet and food intake. The results indicated that obesity and overweight of students are related to gender, religion, sleep duration, time spent on electronic games, breakfast intake in a week, with whom meals are taken, protein intake, and also, the interaction between breakfast intake in a week with sleep duration, and the interaction between gender and protein intake.

  4. Multinomial logistic regression modelling of obesity and overweight among primary school students in a rural area of Negeri Sembilan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ghazali, Amirul Syafiq Mohd; Ali, Zalila; Noor, Norlida Mohd; Baharum, Adam

    2015-01-01

    Multinomial logistic regression is widely used to model the outcomes of a polytomous response variable, a categorical dependent variable with more than two categories. The model assumes that the conditional mean of the dependent categorical variables is the logistic function of an affine combination of predictor variables. Its procedure gives a number of logistic regression models that make specific comparisons of the response categories. When there are q categories of the response variable, the model consists of q-1 logit equations which are fitted simultaneously. The model is validated by variable selection procedures, tests of regression coefficients, a significant test of the overall model, goodness-of-fit measures, and validation of predicted probabilities using odds ratio. This study used the multinomial logistic regression model to investigate obesity and overweight among primary school students in a rural area on the basis of their demographic profiles, lifestyles and on the diet and food intake. The results indicated that obesity and overweight of students are related to gender, religion, sleep duration, time spent on electronic games, breakfast intake in a week, with whom meals are taken, protein intake, and also, the interaction between breakfast intake in a week with sleep duration, and the interaction between gender and protein intake

  5. Effectiveness of enforcement levels of speed limit and drink driving laws and associated factors – Exploratory empirical analysis using a bivariate ordered probit model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Behram Wali

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The contemporary traffic safety research comprises little information on quantifying the simultaneous association between drink driving and speeding among fatally injured drivers. Potential correlation between driver's drink driving and speeding behavior poses a substantial methodological concern which needs investigation. This study therefore focused on investigating the simultaneous impact of socioeconomic factors, fatalities, vehicle ownership, health services and highway agency road safety policies on enforcement levels of speed limit and drink driving laws. The effectiveness of enforcement levels of speed limit and drink driving laws has been investigated through development of bivariate ordered probit model using data extricated from WHO's global status report on road safety in 2013. The consistent and intuitive parameter estimates along with statistically significant correlation between response outcomes validates the statistical supremacy of bivariate ordered probit model. The results revealed that fatalities per thousand registered vehicles, hospital beds per hundred thousand population and road safety policies are associated with a likely medium or high effectiveness of enforcement levels of speed limit and drink driving laws, respectively. Also, the model encapsulates the effect of several other agency related variables and socio-economic status on the response outcomes. Marginal effects are reported for analyzing the impact of such factors on intermediate categories of response outcomes. The results of this study are expected to provide necessary insights to elemental enforcement programs. Also, marginal effects of explanatory variables may provide useful directions for formulating effective policy countermeasures for overcoming driver's speeding and drink driving behavior.

  6. An Instrumental Variable Probit (IVP Analysis on Depressed Mood in Korea: The Impact of Gender Differences and Other Socio-Economic Factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lara Gitto

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Background Depression is a mental health state whose frequency has been increasing in modern societies. It imposes a great burden, because of the strong impact on people’s quality of life and happiness. Depression can be reliably diagnosed and treated in primary care: if more people could get effective treatments earlier, the costs related to depression would be reversed. The aim of this study was to examine the influence of socio-economic factors and gender on depressed mood, focusing on Korea. In fact, in spite of the great amount of empirical studies carried out for other countries, few epidemiological studies have examined the socio-economic determinants of depression in Korea and they were either limited to samples of employed women or did not control for individual health status. Moreover, as the likely data endogeneity (i.e. the possibility of correlation between the dependent variable and the error term as a result of autocorrelation or simultaneity, such as, in this case, the depressed mood due to health factors that, in turn might be caused by depression, might bias the results, the present study proposes an empirical approach, based on instrumental variables, to deal with this problem. Methods Data for the year 2008 from the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES were employed. About seven thousands of people (N= 6,751, of which 43% were males and 57% females, aged from 19 to 75 years old, were included in the sample considered in the analysis. In order to take into account the possible endogeneity of some explanatory variables, two Instrumental Variables Probit (IVP regressions were estimated; the variables for which instrumental equations were estimated were related to the participation of women to the workforce and to good health, as reported by people in the sample. Explanatory variables were related to age, gender, family factors (such as the number of family members and marital status and socio

  7. An Instrumental Variable Probit (IVP) analysis on depressed mood in Korea: the impact of gender differences and other socio-economic factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gitto, Lara; Noh, Yong-Hwan; Andrés, Antonio Rodríguez

    2015-04-16

    Depression is a mental health state whose frequency has been increasing in modern societies. It imposes a great burden, because of the strong impact on people's quality of life and happiness. Depression can be reliably diagnosed and treated in primary care: if more people could get effective treatments earlier, the costs related to depression would be reversed. The aim of this study was to examine the influence of socio-economic factors and gender on depressed mood, focusing on Korea. In fact, in spite of the great amount of empirical studies carried out for other countries, few epidemiological studies have examined the socio-economic determinants of depression in Korea and they were either limited to samples of employed women or did not control for individual health status. Moreover, as the likely data endogeneity (i.e. the possibility of correlation between the dependent variable and the error term as a result of autocorrelation or simultaneity, such as, in this case, the depressed mood due to health factors that, in turn might be caused by depression), might bias the results, the present study proposes an empirical approach, based on instrumental variables, to deal with this problem. Data for the year 2008 from the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES) were employed. About seven thousands of people (N= 6,751, of which 43% were males and 57% females), aged from 19 to 75 years old, were included in the sample considered in the analysis. In order to take into account the possible endogeneity of some explanatory variables, two Instrumental Variables Probit (IVP) regressions were estimated; the variables for which instrumental equations were estimated were related to the participation of women to the workforce and to good health, as reported by people in the sample. Explanatory variables were related to age, gender, family factors (such as the number of family members and marital status) and socio-economic factors (such as education

  8. Recreation Value of Water to Wetlands in the San Joaquin Valley: Linked Multinomial Logit and Count Data Trip Frequency Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Creel, Michael; Loomis, John

    1992-10-01

    The recreational benefits from providing increased quantities of water to wildlife and fisheries habitats is estimated using linked multinomial logit site selection models and count data trip frequency models. The study encompasses waterfowl hunting, fishing and wildlife viewing at 14 recreational resources in the San Joaquin Valley, including the National Wildlife Refuges, the State Wildlife Management Areas, and six river destinations. The economic benefits of increasing water supplies to wildlife refuges were also examined by using the estimated models to predict changing patterns of site selection and overall participation due to increases in water allocations. Estimates of the dollar value per acre foot of water are calculated for increases in water to refuges. The resulting model is a flexible and useful tool for estimating the economic benefits of alternative water allocation policies for wildlife habitat and rivers.

  9. Insights into the latent multinomial model through mark-resight data on female grizzly bears with cubs-of-the-year

    Science.gov (United States)

    Higgs, Megan D.; Link, William; White, Gary C.; Haroldson, Mark A.; Bjornlie, Daniel D.

    2013-01-01

    Mark-resight designs for estimation of population abundance are common and attractive to researchers. However, inference from such designs is very limited when faced with sparse data, either from a low number of marked animals, a low probability of detection, or both. In the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, yearly mark-resight data are collected for female grizzly bears with cubs-of-the-year (FCOY), and inference suffers from both limitations. To overcome difficulties due to sparseness, we assume homogeneity in sighting probabilities over 16 years of bi-annual aerial surveys. We model counts of marked and unmarked animals as multinomial random variables, using the capture frequencies of marked animals for inference about the latent multinomial frequencies for unmarked animals. We discuss undesirable behavior of the commonly used discrete uniform prior distribution on the population size parameter and provide OpenBUGS code for fitting such models. The application provides valuable insights into subtleties of implementing Bayesian inference for latent multinomial models. We tie the discussion to our application, though the insights are broadly useful for applications of the latent multinomial model.

  10. An econometric analysis of changes in arable land utilization using multinomial logit model in Pinggu district, Beijing, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Yueqing; McNamara, Paul; Wu, Yanfang; Dong, Yue

    2013-10-15

    Arable land in China has been decreasing as a result of rapid population growth and economic development as well as urban expansion, especially in developed regions around cities where quality farmland quickly disappears. This paper analyzed changes in arable land utilization during 1993-2008 in the Pinggu district, Beijing, China, developed a multinomial logit (MNL) model to determine spatial driving factors influencing arable land-use change, and simulated arable land transition probabilities. Land-use maps, as well as social-economic and geographical data were used in the study. The results indicated that arable land decreased significantly between 1993 and 2008. Lost arable land shifted into orchard, forestland, settlement, and transportation land. Significant differences existed for arable land transitions among different landform areas. Slope, elevation, population density, urbanization rate, distance to settlements, and distance to roadways were strong drivers influencing arable land transition to other uses. The MNL model was proved effective for predicting transition probabilities in land use from arable land to other land-use types, thus can be used for scenario analysis to develop land-use policies and land-management measures in this metropolitan area. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Measuring Response Styles Across the Big Five: A Multiscale Extension of an Approach Using Multinomial Processing Trees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khorramdel, Lale; von Davier, Matthias

    2014-01-01

    This study shows how to address the problem of trait-unrelated response styles (RS) in rating scales using multidimensional item response theory. The aim is to test and correct data for RS in order to provide fair assessments of personality. Expanding on an approach presented by Böckenholt (2012), observed rating data are decomposed into multiple response processes based on a multinomial processing tree. The data come from a questionnaire consisting of 50 items of the International Personality Item Pool measuring the Big Five dimensions administered to 2,026 U.S. students with a 5-point rating scale. It is shown that this approach can be used to test if RS exist in the data and that RS can be differentiated from trait-related responses. Although the extreme RS appear to be unidimensional after exclusion of only 1 item, a unidimensional measure for the midpoint RS is obtained only after exclusion of 10 items. Both RS measurements show high cross-scale correlations and item response theory-based (marginal) reliabilities. Cultural differences could be found in giving extreme responses. Moreover, it is shown how to score rating data to correct for RS after being proved to exist in the data.

  12. Exploratory multinomial logit model-based driver injury severity analyses for teenage and adult drivers in intersection-related crashes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Qiong; Zhang, Guohui; Ci, Yusheng; Wu, Lina; Tarefder, Rafiqul A; Alcántara, Adélamar Dely

    2016-05-18

    Teenage drivers are more likely to be involved in severely incapacitating and fatal crashes compared to adult drivers. Moreover, because two thirds of urban vehicle miles traveled are on signal-controlled roadways, significant research efforts are needed to investigate intersection-related teenage driver injury severities and their contributing factors in terms of driver behavior, vehicle-infrastructure interactions, environmental characteristics, roadway geometric features, and traffic compositions. Therefore, this study aims to explore the characteristic differences between teenage and adult drivers in intersection-related crashes, identify the significant contributing attributes, and analyze their impacts on driver injury severities. Using crash data collected in New Mexico from 2010 to 2011, 2 multinomial logit regression models were developed to analyze injury severities for teenage and adult drivers, respectively. Elasticity analyses and transferability tests were conducted to better understand the quantitative impacts of these factors and the teenage driver injury severity model's generality. The results showed that although many of the same contributing factors were found to be significant in the both teenage and adult driver models, certain different attributes must be distinguished to specifically develop effective safety solutions for the 2 driver groups. The research findings are helpful to better understand teenage crash uniqueness and develop cost-effective solutions to reduce intersection-related teenage injury severities and facilitate driver injury mitigation research.

  13. A general equation to obtain multiple cut-off scores on a test from multinomial logistic regression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bersabé, Rosa; Rivas, Teresa

    2010-05-01

    The authors derive a general equation to compute multiple cut-offs on a total test score in order to classify individuals into more than two ordinal categories. The equation is derived from the multinomial logistic regression (MLR) model, which is an extension of the binary logistic regression (BLR) model to accommodate polytomous outcome variables. From this analytical procedure, cut-off scores are established at the test score (the predictor variable) at which an individual is as likely to be in category j as in category j+1 of an ordinal outcome variable. The application of the complete procedure is illustrated by an example with data from an actual study on eating disorders. In this example, two cut-off scores on the Eating Attitudes Test (EAT-26) scores are obtained in order to classify individuals into three ordinal categories: asymptomatic, symptomatic and eating disorder. Diagnoses were made from the responses to a self-report (Q-EDD) that operationalises DSM-IV criteria for eating disorders. Alternatives to the MLR model to set multiple cut-off scores are discussed.

  14. Measuring decision weights in recognition experiments with multiple response alternatives: comparing the correlation and multinomial-logistic-regression methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dai, Huanping; Micheyl, Christophe

    2012-11-01

    Psychophysical "reverse-correlation" methods allow researchers to gain insight into the perceptual representations and decision weighting strategies of individual subjects in perceptual tasks. Although these methods have gained momentum, until recently their development was limited to experiments involving only two response categories. Recently, two approaches for estimating decision weights in m-alternative experiments have been put forward. One approach extends the two-category correlation method to m > 2 alternatives; the second uses multinomial logistic regression (MLR). In this article, the relative merits of the two methods are discussed, and the issues of convergence and statistical efficiency of the methods are evaluated quantitatively using Monte Carlo simulations. The results indicate that, for a range of values of the number of trials, the estimated weighting patterns are closer to their asymptotic values for the correlation method than for the MLR method. Moreover, for the MLR method, weight estimates for different stimulus components can exhibit strong correlations, making the analysis and interpretation of measured weighting patterns less straightforward than for the correlation method. These and other advantages of the correlation method, which include computational simplicity and a close relationship to other well-established psychophysical reverse-correlation methods, make it an attractive tool to uncover decision strategies in m-alternative experiments.

  15. Reproductive risk factors assessment for anaemia among pregnant women in India using a multinomial logistic regression model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perumal, Vanamail

    2014-07-01

    To assess reproductive risk factors for anaemia among pregnant women in urban and rural areas of India. The International Institute of Population Sciences, India, carried out third National Family Health Survey in 2005-2006 to estimate a key indicator from a sample of ever-married women in the reproductive age group 15-49 years. Data on various dimensions were collected using a structured questionnaire, and anaemia was measured using a portable HemoCue instrument. Anaemia prevalence among pregnant women was compared between rural and urban areas using chi-square test and odds ratio. Multinomial logistic regression analysis was used to determine risk factors. Anaemia prevalence was assessed among 3355 pregnant women from rural areas and 1962 pregnant women from urban areas. Moderate-to-severe anaemia in rural areas (32.4%) is significantly more common than in urban areas (27.3%) with an excess risk of 30%. Gestational age specific prevalence of anaemia significantly increases in rural areas after 6 months. Pregnancy duration is a significant risk factor in both urban and rural areas. In rural areas, increasing age at marriage and mass media exposure are significant protective factors of anaemia. However, more births in the last five years, alcohol consumption and smoking habits are significant risk factors. In rural areas, various reproductive factors and lifestyle characteristics constitute significant risk factors for moderate-to-severe anaemia. Therefore, intensive health education on reproductive practices and the impact of lifestyle characteristics are warranted to reduce anaemia prevalence. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  16. Evaluation of Factors Affecting E-Bike Involved Crash and E-Bike License Plate Use in China Using a Bivariate Probit Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yanyong Guo

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The primary objective of this study is to evaluate factors affecting e-bike involved crash and license plate use in China. E-bike crashes data were collected from police database and completed through a telephone interview. Noncrash samples were collected by a questionnaire survey. A bivariate probit (BP model was developed to simultaneously examine the significant factors associated with e-bike involved crash and e-bike license plate and to account for the correlations between them. Marginal effects for contributory factors were calculated to quantify their impacts on the outcomes. The results show that several contributory factors, including gender, age, education level, driver license, car in household, experiences in using e-bike, law compliance, and aggressive driving behaviors, are found to have significant impacts on both e-bike involved crash and license plate use. Moreover, type of e-bike, frequency of using e-bike, impulse behavior, degree of riding experience, and risk perception scale are found to be associated with e-bike involved crash. It is also found that e-bike involved crash and e-bike license plate use are strongly correlated and are negative in direction. The result enhanced our comprehension of the factors related to e-bike involved crash and e-bike license plate use.

  17. Modelling the vicious circle between obesity and physical activity in children and adolescents using a bivariate probit model with endogenous regressors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yeh, C-Y; Chen, L-J; Ku, P-W; Chen, C-M

    2015-01-01

    The increasing prevalence of obesity in children and adolescents has become one of the most important public health issues around the world. Lack of physical activity is a risk factor for obesity, while being obese could reduce the likelihood of participating in physical activity. Failing to account for the endogeneity between obesity and physical activity would result in biased estimation. This study investigates the relationship between overweight and physical activity by taking endogeneity into consideration. It develops an endogenous bivariate probit model estimated by the maximum likelihood method. The data included 4008 boys and 4197 girls in the 5th-9th grades in Taiwan in 2007-2008. The relationship between overweight and physical activity is significantly negative in the endogenous model, but insignificant in the comparative exogenous model. This endogenous relationship presents a vicious circle in which lower levels of physical activity lead to overweight, while those who are already overweight engage in less physical activity. The results not only reveal the importance of endogenous treatment, but also demonstrate the robust negative relationship between these two factors. An emphasis should be put on overweight and obese children and adolescents in order to break the vicious circle. Promotion of physical activity by appropriate counselling programmes and peer support could be effective in reducing the prevalence of obesity in children and adolescents.

  18. Evaluating risk factors for endemic human Salmonella Enteritidis infections with different phage types in Ontario, Canada using multinomial logistic regression and a case-case study approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Varga Csaba

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Identifying risk factors for Salmonella Enteritidis (SE infections in Ontario will assist public health authorities to design effective control and prevention programs to reduce the burden of SE infections. Our research objective was to identify risk factors for acquiring SE infections with various phage types (PT in Ontario, Canada. We hypothesized that certain PTs (e.g., PT8 and PT13a have specific risk factors for infection. Methods Our study included endemic SE cases with various PTs whose isolates were submitted to the Public Health Laboratory-Toronto from January 20th to August 12th, 2011. Cases were interviewed using a standardized questionnaire that included questions pertaining to demographics, travel history, clinical symptoms, contact with animals, and food exposures. A multinomial logistic regression method using the Generalized Linear Latent and Mixed Model procedure and a case-case study design were used to identify risk factors for acquiring SE infections with various PTs in Ontario, Canada. In the multinomial logistic regression model, the outcome variable had three categories representing human infections caused by SE PT8, PT13a, and all other SE PTs (i.e., non-PT8/non-PT13a as a referent category to which the other two categories were compared. Results In the multivariable model, SE PT8 was positively associated with contact with dogs (OR=2.17, 95% CI 1.01-4.68 and negatively associated with pepper consumption (OR=0.35, 95% CI 0.13-0.94, after adjusting for age categories and gender, and using exposure periods and health regions as random effects to account for clustering. Conclusions Our study findings offer interesting hypotheses about the role of phage type-specific risk factors. Multinomial logistic regression analysis and the case-case study approach are novel methodologies to evaluate associations among SE infections with different PTs and various risk factors.

  19. Multinomial model and zero-inflated gamma model to study time spent on leisure time physical activity: an example of ELSA-Brasil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nobre, Aline Araújo; Carvalho, Marilia Sá; Griep, Rosane Härter; Fonseca, Maria de Jesus Mendes da; Melo, Enirtes Caetano Prates; Santos, Itamar de Souza; Chor, Dora

    2017-08-17

    To compare two methodological approaches: the multinomial model and the zero-inflated gamma model, evaluating the factors associated with the practice and amount of time spent on leisure time physical activity. Data collected from 14,823 baseline participants in the Longitudinal Study of Adult Health (ELSA-Brasil - Estudo Longitudinal de Saúde do Adulto ) have been analysed. Regular leisure time physical activity has been measured using the leisure time physical activity module of the International Physical Activity Questionnaire. The explanatory variables considered were gender, age, education level, and annual per capita family income. The main advantage of the zero-inflated gamma model over the multinomial model is that it estimates mean time (minutes per week) spent on leisure time physical activity. For example, on average, men spent 28 minutes/week longer on leisure time physical activity than women did. The most sedentary groups were young women with low education level and income. The zero-inflated gamma model, which is rarely used in epidemiological studies, can give more appropriate answers in several situations. In our case, we have obtained important information on the main determinants of the duration of leisure time physical activity. This information can help guide efforts towards the most vulnerable groups since physical inactivity is associated with different diseases and even premature death.

  20. Multinomial model and zero-inflated gamma model to study time spent on leisure time physical activity: an example of ELSA-Brasil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aline Araújo Nobre

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To compare two methodological approaches: the multinomial model and the zero-inflated gamma model, evaluating the factors associated with the practice and amount of time spent on leisure time physical activity. METHODS Data collected from 14,823 baseline participants in the Longitudinal Study of Adult Health (ELSA-Brasil – Estudo Longitudinal de Saúde do Adulto have been analysed. Regular leisure time physical activity has been measured using the leisure time physical activity module of the International Physical Activity Questionnaire. The explanatory variables considered were gender, age, education level, and annual per capita family income. RESULTS The main advantage of the zero-inflated gamma model over the multinomial model is that it estimates mean time (minutes per week spent on leisure time physical activity. For example, on average, men spent 28 minutes/week longer on leisure time physical activity than women did. The most sedentary groups were young women with low education level and income CONCLUSIONS The zero-inflated gamma model, which is rarely used in epidemiological studies, can give more appropriate answers in several situations. In our case, we have obtained important information on the main determinants of the duration of leisure time physical activity. This information can help guide efforts towards the most vulnerable groups since physical inactivity is associated with different diseases and even premature death.

  1. The multivariate Dirichlet-multinomial distribution and its application in forensic genetics to adjust for subpopulation effects using the θ-correction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tvedebrink, Torben; Eriksen, Poul Svante; Morling, Niels

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, we discuss the construction of a multivariate generalisation of the Dirichlet-multinomial distribution. An example from forensic genetics in the statistical analysis of DNA mixtures motivates the study of this multivariate extension. In forensic genetics, adjustment of the match...... probabilities due to remote ancestry in the population is often done using the so-called θ-correction. This correction increases the probability of observing multiple copies of rare alleles in a subpopulation and thereby reduces the weight of the evidence for rare genotypes. A recent publication by Cowell et al....... (2015) showed elegantly how to use Bayesian networks for efficient computations of likelihood ratios in a forensic genetic context. However, their underlying population genetic model assumed independence of alleles, which is not realistic in real populations. We demonstrate how the so-called θ...

  2. Prevalence and Predictors of Pre-Diabetes and Diabetes among Adults 18 Years or Older in Florida: A Multinomial Logistic Modeling Approach.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ifechukwude Obiamaka Okwechime

    Full Text Available Individuals with pre-diabetes and diabetes have increased risks of developing macro-vascular complications including heart disease and stroke; which are the leading causes of death globally. The objective of this study was to estimate the prevalence of pre-diabetes and diabetes, and to investigate their predictors among adults ≥18 years in Florida.Data covering the time period January-December 2013, were obtained from Florida's Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS. Survey design of the study was declared using SVYSET statement of STATA 13.1. Descriptive analyses were performed to estimate the prevalence of pre-diabetes and diabetes. Predictors of pre-diabetes and diabetes were investigated using multinomial logistic regression model. Model goodness-of-fit was evaluated using both the multinomial goodness-of-fit test proposed by Fagerland, Hosmer, and Bofin, as well as, the Hosmer-Lemeshow's goodness of fit test.There were approximately 2,983 (7.3% and 5,189 (12.1% adults in Florida diagnosed with pre-diabetes and diabetes, respectively. Over half of the study respondents were white, married and over the age of 45 years while 36.4% reported being physically inactive, overweight (36.4% or obese (26.4%, hypertensive (34.6%, hypercholesteremic (40.3%, and 26% were arthritic. Based on the final multivariable multinomial model, only being overweight (Relative Risk Ratio [RRR] = 1.85, 95% Confidence Interval [95% CI] = 1.41, 2.42, obese (RRR = 3.41, 95% CI = 2.61, 4.45, hypertensive (RRR = 1.69, 95% CI = 1.33, 2.15, hypercholesterolemic (RRR = 1.94, 95% CI = 1.55, 2.43, and arthritic (RRR = 1.24, 95% CI = 1.00, 1.55 had significant associations with pre-diabetes. However, more predictors had significant associations with diabetes and the strengths of associations tended to be higher than for the association with pre-diabetes. For instance, the relative risk ratios for the association between diabetes and being overweight (RRR = 2.00, 95

  3. The Application of Multinomial Logistic Regression Models for the Assessment of Parameters of Oocytes and Embryos Quality in Predicting Pregnancy and Miscarriage

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Milewska Anna Justyna

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Infertility is a huge problem nowadays, not only from the medical but also from the social point of view. A key step to improve treatment outcomes is the possibility of effective prediction of treatment result. In a situation when a phenomenon with more than 2 states needs to be explained, e.g. pregnancy, miscarriage, non-pregnancy, the use of multinomial logistic regression is a good solution. The aim of this paper is to select those features that have a significant impact on achieving clinical pregnancy as well as those that determine the occurrence of spontaneous miscarriage (non-pregnancy was set as the reference category. Two multi-factor models were obtained, used in predicting infertility treatment outcomes. One of the models enabled to conclude that the number of follicles and the percentage of retrieved mature oocytes have a significant impact when prediction of treatment outcome is made on the basis of information about oocytes. The other model, built on the basis of information about embryos, showed the significance of the number of fertilized oocytes, the percentage of at least 7-cell embryos on day 3, the percentage of blasts on day 5, and the day of transfer.

  4. Expert Elicitation of Multinomial Probabilities for Decision-Analytic Modeling: An Application to Rates of Disease Progression in Undiagnosed and Untreated Melanoma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Edward C F; Usher-Smith, Juliet A; Emery, Jon; Corrie, Pippa G; Walter, Fiona M

    2018-06-01

    Expert elicitation is required to inform decision making when relevant "better quality" data either do not exist or cannot be collected. An example of this is to inform decisions as to whether to screen for melanoma. A key input is the counterfactual, in this case the natural history of melanoma in patients who are undiagnosed and hence untreated. To elicit expert opinion on the probability of disease progression in patients with melanoma that is undetected and hence untreated. A bespoke webinar-based expert elicitation protocol was administered to 14 participants in the United Kingdom, Australia, and New Zealand, comprising 12 multinomial questions on the probability of progression from one disease stage to another in the absence of treatment. A modified Connor-Mosimann distribution was fitted to individual responses to each question. Individual responses were pooled using a Monte-Carlo simulation approach. Participants were asked to provide feedback on the process. A pooled modified Connor-Mosimann distribution was successfully derived from participants' responses. Feedback from participants was generally positive, with 86% willing to take part in such an exercise again. Nevertheless, only 57% of participants felt that this was a valid approach to determine the risk of disease progression. Qualitative feedback reflected some understanding of the need to rely on expert elicitation in the absence of "hard" data. We successfully elicited and pooled the beliefs of experts in melanoma regarding the probability of disease progression in a format suitable for inclusion in a decision-analytic model. Copyright © 2018 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Remarques concernant la probité scientifique

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roxana Iordache

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available On constate, ces derniers temps, que certains jeunes enseignants expérimentent le plagiat sur des théories déjà publiées et généralement acceptées par les milieux scientifiques. D'autres enseignants faussent le contenu d'idées d'un travail, ou de l'autre, dans l'espoir d'augmenter leurs propres mérites. C' est avec stupeur que nous découvrons dans les Actes du IXe Colloque de linguistique Latine (Madrid, 1998, vol. 1, les pages de Mme Mirka Maraldi (Université de Bologne, intitulées «Concessive ut: parataxis, hypotaxis and correlation» (pages 487- 500. Mme M. Maraldi critique à la page 493 du volume supra mentionné notre étude sur le ut concessif du Jatin, en oubliant complètement d 'indiquer dans le texte et dans les notes de cette page, ainsi que de toutes les autres pages, le litre de notre étude, le lieu de parution et la page (ou les pages de nos soi-disant erreurs. On critique plusieurs fois «Jordache's analysis» - un syntagme vague, en fait! Précisons en mȇme temps que Mme M. Maraldi mentionne avec beaucoup de souci, à chaque page, les données des autres articles (Iieu d'apparition, page etc., etc, quoique, pour la plupart, il s'agisse de travaux peu importants pour le sujet en discussion.

  6. Remarques concernant la probité scientifique

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roxana Iordache

    2000-12-01

    Full Text Available On constate, ces derniers temps, que certains jeunes enseignants expérimentent le plagiat sur des théories déjà publiées et généralement acceptées par les milieux scientifiques. D'autres enseignants faussent le contenu d'idees d'un travail, ou de l'autre, dans l'espoir d'augmenter leurs propres mérites.

  7. Multinomial malware classification based on call graphs

    OpenAIRE

    Østbye, Morten Oscar

    2017-01-01

    Ever since the computer was invented, people have found ways to evolve interaction or simplify tasks with computational resources, this for both good and bad. For the known lifespan of the digital age, malicious software (malware) has been a constant threat to computer systems. Malware has been the cause of enormous damage related to both governmental and private sectors, but also for individuals. Malware has evolved to target different systems and environments and therefore there exists a va...

  8. A Comparison of Alternative Specifications of the College Attendance Equation with an Extension to two-stage Selectivity-Correction Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hilmer, Michael J.

    2001-01-01

    Estimates a college-attendance equation for a common set of students (from the High School and Beyond Survey) using three popular econometric specifications: the multinomial logit, the ordered probit, and the bivariate probit. Estimated marginal effects do not differ significantly across the three specifications. Choice of specification may not…

  9. Modeling Unobserved Consideration Sets for Household Panel Data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J.E.M. van Nierop; R. Paap (Richard); B. Bronnenberg; Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans)

    2000-01-01

    textabstractWe propose a new method to model consumers' consideration and choice processes. We develop a parsimonious probit type model for consideration and a multinomial probit model for choice, given consideration. Unlike earlier models of consideration ours is not prone to the curse of

  10. Retrieving unobserved consideration sets from household panel data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J.E.M. van Nierop; R. Paap (Richard); B. Bronnenberg; Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans); M. Wedel (Michel)

    2005-01-01

    textabstractWe propose a new model to describe consideration, consisting of a multivariate probit model component for consideration and a multinomial probit model component for choice, given consideration. The approach allows one to analyze stated consideration set data, revealed consideration set

  11. Comparison of Weibull and Probit Analysis in Toxicity Testing of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    HP

    Keywords: Hunteria umbellata, Weibull model, Acute toxicity, Median lethal dose (LD50). Received: 7 November ... (PBPK) models [14,15], and (v) biologically-. Based Models: Moolgavkar-Venzon-Kundson. (MVK) model [16] and Ellwein and Cohen model [17]. ... Nigeria, Ibadan, where a sample with number. FHI107618 ...

  12. Integration of Fishers' Perception on the Environment

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Keywords: Climate change, Green Economy, multinomial probit model, small- scale fisheries ... adoption of new preferences regarding environmental management and how these .... food security and poverty eradication in ... The challenges for SIDS are to integrate these ..... are thus facing unprecedented threats from.

  13. The Effect of Supplemental Instruction on Retention: A Bivariate Probit Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowles, Tyler J.; Jones, Jason

    2004-01-01

    Single equation regression models have been used to test the effect of Supplemental Instruction (SI) on student retention. These models, however, fail to account for the two salient features of SI attendance and retention: (1) both SI attendance and retention are categorical variables, and (2) are jointly determined endogenous variables. Adopting…

  14. Endogeneity and Heterogeneity in a Probit Demand Model: Estimation Using Aggregate Data

    OpenAIRE

    Pradeep K. Chintagunta

    2001-01-01

    Two issues that have become increasingly important while estimating the parameters of aggregate demand functions to study firm behavior are the of marketing activities (typically, price) and across consumers in the market under consideration. Ignoring these issues in the estimation of the demand function parameters can lead to biased and inconsistent estimates for the effects of marketing activities. Endogeneity and heterogeneity have achieved prominence in large measure because of the increa...

  15. PUBLIC APPROVAL OF PLANT AND ANIMAL BIOTECHNOLOGY IN KOREA: AN ORDERED PROBIT ANALYSIS

    OpenAIRE

    Hallman, William K.; Onyango, Benjamin M.; Govindasamy, Ramu; Jang, Ho-Min; Puduri, Venkata S.

    2004-01-01

    This study analyzes predictors of Korean public acceptance of the use of biotechnology to create genetically modified food products. Results indicate that the consumers with above average knowledge of specific outcomes of genetic modification were more likely than those with inaccurate or no knowledge to approve use of plant or animal genetic modification for the creation of new food products. Young South Koreans consumers (ages 20 to 29 years old) were more likely than old consumers (ages 50...

  16. Bayesian Analysis of Multilevel Probit Models for Data with Friendship Dependencies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koskinen, Johan; Stenberg, Sten-Ake

    2012-01-01

    When studying educational aspirations of adolescents, it is unrealistic to assume that the aspirations of pupils are independent of those of their friends. Considerable attention has also been given to the study of peer influence in the educational and behavioral literature. Typically, in empirical studies, the friendship networks have either been…

  17. Job Motivation and Self-Confidence for Learning and Development as Predictors of Support for Change

    OpenAIRE

    Vithessonthi, Chaiporn; Schwaninger, Markus

    2008-01-01

    For the most part, studies on change management have attempted to determine the factors that influence employee resistance to change. The focus of the present study is to test whether job motivation and self-confidence for learning and development influence employee support for downsizing. Data were gathered from a sample of 86 teachers at one private school in Bangkok, Thailand. The analysis was carried out using multinomial ordered probit regression. The results suggest that the level of jo...

  18. Ordering the Preference Hierarchies for Internal Finance, Bank Loans, Bond and Share Issues

    OpenAIRE

    Leo de Haan; Jeroen Hinloopen

    2002-01-01

    We estimate the incremental financing decision for a sample of some 150Dutch companies for the years 1984 through 1997, thereby distinguishinginternal finance and three types of external finance: bank borrowing, bondissues and share issues. First, we estimate a multinomial logit model whichconfirms several predictions of both the static trade-off theory and thepecking-order theory as to the determinants of financing choices. Next, weuse ordered probit models to determine which financing hiera...

  19. The differentiated impacts of organizational innovation practices on technological innovation persistence

    OpenAIRE

    Le Bas , Christian; Mothe , Caroline; Nguyen-Thi , Thuc Uyen

    2015-01-01

    International audience; Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to test the major determinants of technological (product and process) innovation persistence and provides evidence of the significant role of organizational innovation. Design/methodology/approach – Data came from two waves of the Luxembourg Community Innovation Survey (CIS): CIS2006 for 2004-2006 and CIS2008 for 2006-2008. The longitudinal data set resulted in a final sample of 287 firms. A multinomial probit model estimates the ...

  20. Unter welchen Umständen würden deutsche Landwirte gentechnisch veränderten Raps anbauen? Ein Discrete-Choice-Experiment

    OpenAIRE

    Breustedt, Gunnar; Muller-Scheessel, Jorg; Meyer-Schatz, Henrika Marie

    2007-01-01

    We examine the factors affecting the willingness of German farmers to adopt genetically modified (GM) oilseed rape after the pending commercial release of GM varieties. The analysis is based mainly on a web-based Discrete Choice Experiment with 217 oilseed rape growers in Germany. The determinants of adoption were estimated with the use of a multinomial probit model. Results indicate a significant impact of economic determinants on the adoption willingness: the difference in gross margins bet...

  1. Vocational and General Education of Girls and Boys in Tunisia: The Effects of Income and Parental Education

    OpenAIRE

    Mohamed Siala; Nehed Ben Ammar

    2014-01-01

    Throughout Tunisia, basic education is compulsory. Children are required to enroll for at least 9 years from age 6. This paper examines gender differences in education choice of upper basic education of youths aged 15–24 in Tunisia. To investigate the factors that influence an individual’s choice between vocational education, general education (secondary and high education) and leaving school, the paper estimates a multinomial probit model of education choice. We focus on the i...

  2. Modeling a Multinomial Logit Model of Intercity Travel Mode Choice Behavior for All Trips in Libya

    OpenAIRE

    Manssour A. Abdulsalam Bin Miskeen; Ahmed Mohamed Alhodairi; Riza Atiq Abdullah Bin O. K. Rahmat

    2013-01-01

    In the planning point of view, it is essential to have mode choice, due to the massive amount of incurred in transportation systems. The intercity travellers in Libya have distinct features, as against travellers from other countries, which includes cultural and socioeconomic factors. Consequently, the goal of this study is to recognize the behavior of intercity travel using disaggregate models, for projecting the demand of nation-level intercity travel in Libya. Multinom...

  3. Identifying response styles: A latent-class bilinear multinomial logit model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Rosmalen, J.; van Herk, H.; Groenen, P.J.F.

    2010-01-01

    Respondents can vary strongly in the way they use rating scales. Specifically, respondents can exhibit a variety of response styles, which threatens the validity of the responses. The purpose of this article Is to investigate how response style and content of the items affect rating scale responses.

  4. Use of negative multinomial linear models to investigate environmental effects on community structure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    A frequent goal in ecology is to understand the relationships between biological communities and their environment. Anderson and McCardle (2001) provided a nonparametric method, known as Permanova, that is often used for this purpose. Permanova represents a significant advance,...

  5. Measuring political sentiment on Twitter: factor-optimal design for multinomial inverse regression

    OpenAIRE

    Taddy, Matt

    2012-01-01

    This article presents a short case study in text analysis: the scoring of Twitter posts for positive, negative, or neutral sentiment directed towards particular US politicians. The study requires selection of a sub-sample of representative posts for sentiment scoring, a common and costly aspect of sentiment mining. As a general contribution, our application is preceded by a proposed algorithm for maximizing sampling efficiency. In particular, we outline and illustrate greedy selection of docu...

  6. Analysis of Functional Data with Focus on Multinomial Regression and Multilevel Data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mousavi, Seyed Nourollah

    Functional data analysis (FDA) is a fast growing area in statistical research with increasingly diverse range of application from economics, medicine, agriculture, chemometrics, etc. Functional regression is an area of FDA which has received the most attention both in aspects of application...... and methodological development. Our main Functional data analysis (FDA) is a fast growing area in statistical research with increasingly diverse range of application from economics, medicine, agriculture, chemometrics, etc. Functional regression is an area of FDA which has received the most attention both in aspects...

  7. The Dirichet-Multinomial model for multivariate randomized response data and small samples

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Avetisyan, Marianna; Fox, Gerardus J.A.

    2012-01-01

    In survey sampling the randomized response (RR) technique can be used to obtain truthful answers to sensitive questions. Although the individual answers are masked due to the RR technique, individual (sensitive) response rates can be estimated when observing multivariate response data. The

  8. The Dirichlet-Multinomial Model for Multivariate Randomized Response Data and Small Samples

    Science.gov (United States)

    Avetisyan, Marianna; Fox, Jean-Paul

    2012-01-01

    In survey sampling the randomized response (RR) technique can be used to obtain truthful answers to sensitive questions. Although the individual answers are masked due to the RR technique, individual (sensitive) response rates can be estimated when observing multivariate response data. The beta-binomial model for binary RR data will be generalized…

  9. Wage mobility in Europe. A comparative analysis using restricted multinomial logit regression

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pavlopoulos, D.; Muffels, R.; Vermunt, J.K.

    2010-01-01

    In this paper, we investigate cross-country differences in wage mobility in Europe using the European Community Household Panel. The paper is particularly focused on examining the impact of economic conditions, welfare state regimes and employment regulation on wage mobility. We apply a log-linear

  10. Generalized Partial Least Squares Approach for Nominal Multinomial Logit Regression Models with a Functional Covariate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albaqshi, Amani Mohammed H.

    2017-01-01

    Functional Data Analysis (FDA) has attracted substantial attention for the last two decades. Within FDA, classifying curves into two or more categories is consistently of interest to scientists, but multi-class prediction within FDA is challenged in that most classification tools have been limited to binary response applications. The functional…

  11. A Multinomial Logit Approach to Estimating Regional Inventories by Product Class

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawrence Teeter; Xiaoping Zhou

    1998-01-01

    Current timber inventory projections generally lack information on inventory by product classes. Most models available for inventory projection and linked to supply analyses are limited to projecting aggregate softwood and hardwood. The objective of this research is to develop a methodology to distribute the volume on each FIA survey plot to product classes and...

  12. Using multinomial logistic regression analysis to understand anglers willingness to substitute other fishing locations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woo-Yong Hyun; Robert B. Ditton

    2007-01-01

    The concept of recreation substitutability has been a continuing research topic for outdoor recreation researchers. This study explores the relationships among variables regarding the willingness to substitute one location for another location. The objectives of the study are 1) to ascertain and predict the extent to which saltwater anglers were willing to substitute...

  13. Determination of the Factors Influencing Store Preference in Erzurum by a Multinomial Logit Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hüseyin ÖZER

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available The main objective of this study is to determine factors influencing store preference of the store costumers in Erzurum in terms of some characteristics of the store and its product and costumers’ demographic characteristics (sex, age, marital status, level of education and their income level. In order to carry out this objective, Pearson chi-square test is applied to determine whether there is a relationship between the store preference and customer, stores, and some characteristics of products and a multinominal logit model is fitted by stepwise regression method to the cross-section data compiled from a questionnaire applied to 384 store costumers in the center of Erzurum province. According to the model estimation and test results, the variables of marital status (married, education (primary and cheapness (unimportant for Migros; education (middle for Özmar and marital status (married for the other stores are determined as statistically significant at the level of 5 percent

  14. Mixed multinomial logit model for out-of-home leisure activity choice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Grigolon, A.B.; Kemperman, A.D.A.M.; Timmermans, H.J.P.

    2013-01-01

    This paper documents the design and results of a study on the factors influencing the choice of out-of-home leisure activities. Influencing factors seem related to socio-demographic characteristics, personal preferences, characteristics of the built environment and other aspects of the activities

  15. PREMIM and EMIM: tools for estimation of maternal, imprinting and interaction effects using multinomial modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Howey Richard

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Here we present two new computer tools, PREMIM and EMIM, for the estimation of parental and child genetic effects, based on genotype data from a variety of different child-parent configurations. PREMIM allows the extraction of child-parent genotype data from standard-format pedigree data files, while EMIM uses the extracted genotype data to perform subsequent statistical analysis. The use of genotype data from the parents as well as from the child in question allows the estimation of complex genetic effects such as maternal genotype effects, maternal-foetal interactions and parent-of-origin (imprinting effects. These effects are estimated by EMIM, incorporating chosen assumptions such as Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium or exchangeability of parental matings as required. Results In application to simulated data, we show that the inference provided by EMIM is essentially equivalent to that provided by alternative (competing software packages such as MENDEL and LEM. However, PREMIM and EMIM (used in combination considerably outperform MENDEL and LEM in terms of speed and ease of execution. Conclusions Together, EMIM and PREMIM provide easy-to-use command-line tools for the analysis of pedigree data, giving unbiased estimates of parental and child genotype relative risks.

  16. A Multinomial Model of Fertility Choice and Offspring Sex-Ratios in India

    OpenAIRE

    Rubiana Chamarbagwala; Martin Ranger

    2007-01-01

    Fertility decline in developing countries may have unexpected demographic consequences. Although lower fertility improves nutrition, health, and human capital investments for surviving children, little is known about the relationship between fertility outcomes and female-male offspring sex-ratios. Particularly in countries with a cultural preference for sons, like India and China, fertility decline may deteriorate the already imbalanced sex-ratios. We use the fertility histories of over 90,00...

  17. INCLUSION OF THE LATENT PERSONALITY VARIABLE IN MULTINOMIAL LOGIT MODELS USING THE 16PF PSYCHOMETRIC TEST

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    JORGE E. CÓRDOBA MAQUILÓN

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Los modelos de demanda de viajes utilizan principalmente los atributos modales y las características socioeconómicas como variables explicativas. También se ha establecido que las actitudes y percepciones influyen en el comportamiento de los usuarios. Sin embargo, las variables psicológicas del individuo condicionan la conducta del usuario. En este estudio se incluyó la variable latente personalidad, en la estimación del modelo híbrido de elección discreta, el cual constituye una buena alternativa para incorporar los efectos de los factores subjetivos. La variable latente personalidad se evaluó con la prueba psicométrica 16PF de validez internacional. El artículo analiza los resultados de la aplicación de este modelo a una población de empleados y docentes universitarios, y también propone un camino para la utilización de pruebas psicométricas en los modelos híbridos de elección discreta. Nuestros resultados muestran que los modelos híbridos que incluyen variables latentes psicológicas son superiores a los modelos tradicionales que ignoran los efectos de la conducta de los usuarios.

  18. Identifying Unknown Response Styles: A Latent-Class Bilinear Multinomial Logit Model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J.M. van Rosmalen (Joost); H. van Herk (Hester); P.J.F. Groenen (Patrick)

    2007-01-01

    textabstractRespondents can vary significantly in the way they use rating scales. Specifically, respondents can exhibit varying degrees of response style, which threatens the validity of the responses. The purpose of this article is to investigate to what extent rating scale responses show response

  19. How Much Math Do Students Need to Succeed in Business and Economics Statistics? An Ordered Probit Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, Jeffrey J.; Stone, Courtenay C.; Zegeye, Abera; Charles, Thomas A.

    2009-01-01

    Because statistical analysis requires the ability to use mathematics, students typically are required to take one or more prerequisite math courses prior to enrolling in the business statistics course. Despite these math prerequisites, however, many students find it difficult to learn business statistics. In this study, we use an ordered probit…

  20. Study on the Rationality and Validity of Probit Models of Domino Effect to Chemical Process Equipment caused by Overpressure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sun, Dongliang; Huang, Guangtuan; Jiang, Juncheng; Zhang, Mingguang; Wang, Zhirong

    2013-01-01

    Overpressure is one important cause of domino effect in accidents of chemical process equipments. Some models considering propagation probability and threshold values of the domino effect caused by overpressure have been proposed in previous study. In order to prove the rationality and validity of the models reported in the reference, two boundary values of three damage degrees reported were considered as random variables respectively in the interval [0, 100%]. Based on the overpressure data for damage to the equipment and the damage state, and the calculation method reported in the references, the mean square errors of the four categories of damage probability models of overpressure were calculated with random boundary values, and then a relationship of mean square error vs. the two boundary value was obtained, the minimum of mean square error was obtained, compared with the result of the present work, mean square error decreases by about 3%. Therefore, the error was in the acceptable range of engineering applications, the models reported can be considered reasonable and valid.

  1. Bivariate Probit Models for Analysing how “Knowledge” Affects Innovation and Performance in Small and Medium Sized Firms

    OpenAIRE

    FARACE, Salvatore; MAZZOTTA, Fernanda

    2011-01-01

    This paper examines the determinants of innovation and its effects on small- and medium-sized firms We use the data from the OPIS databank, which provides a survey on a representative sample of firms from a province of the Southern Italy. We want to study whether small and medium sized firms can have a competitive advantage using their innovative capabilities, regardless of their sectoral and size limits. The main factor influencing the likelihood of innovation is knowledge, which is acquired...

  2. Predicting Lung Radiotherapy-Induced Pneumonitis Using a Model Combining Parametric Lyman Probit With Nonparametric Decision Trees

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Das, Shiva K.; Zhou Sumin; Zhang, Junan; Yin, F.-F.; Dewhirst, Mark W.; Marks, Lawrence B.

    2007-01-01

    Purpose: To develop and test a model to predict for lung radiation-induced Grade 2+ pneumonitis. Methods and Materials: The model was built from a database of 234 lung cancer patients treated with radiotherapy (RT), of whom 43 were diagnosed with pneumonitis. The model augmented the predictive capability of the parametric dose-based Lyman normal tissue complication probability (LNTCP) metric by combining it with weighted nonparametric decision trees that use dose and nondose inputs. The decision trees were sequentially added to the model using a 'boosting' process that enhances the accuracy of prediction. The model's predictive capability was estimated by 10-fold cross-validation. To facilitate dissemination, the cross-validation result was used to extract a simplified approximation to the complicated model architecture created by boosting. Application of the simplified model is demonstrated in two example cases. Results: The area under the model receiver operating characteristics curve for cross-validation was 0.72, a significant improvement over the LNTCP area of 0.63 (p = 0.005). The simplified model used the following variables to output a measure of injury: LNTCP, gender, histologic type, chemotherapy schedule, and treatment schedule. For a given patient RT plan, injury prediction was highest for the combination of pre-RT chemotherapy, once-daily treatment, female gender and lowest for the combination of no pre-RT chemotherapy and nonsquamous cell histologic type. Application of the simplified model to the example cases revealed that injury prediction for a given treatment plan can range from very low to very high, depending on the settings of the nondose variables. Conclusions: Radiation pneumonitis prediction was significantly enhanced by decision trees that added the influence of nondose factors to the LNTCP formulation

  3. Study on the Rationality and Validity of Probit Models of Domino Effect to Chemical Process Equipment caused by Overpressure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Dongliang; Huang, Guangtuan; Jiang, Juncheng; Zhang, Mingguang; Wang, Zhirong

    2013-04-01

    Overpressure is one important cause of domino effect in accidents of chemical process equipments. Some models considering propagation probability and threshold values of the domino effect caused by overpressure have been proposed in previous study. In order to prove the rationality and validity of the models reported in the reference, two boundary values of three damage degrees reported were considered as random variables respectively in the interval [0, 100%]. Based on the overpressure data for damage to the equipment and the damage state, and the calculation method reported in the references, the mean square errors of the four categories of damage probability models of overpressure were calculated with random boundary values, and then a relationship of mean square error vs. the two boundary value was obtained, the minimum of mean square error was obtained, compared with the result of the present work, mean square error decreases by about 3%. Therefore, the error was in the acceptable range of engineering applications, the models reported can be considered reasonable and valid.

  4. Recommender system based on scarce information mining.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Wei; Chung, Fu-Lai; Lai, Kunfeng; Zhang, Liang

    2017-09-01

    Guessing what user may like is now a typical interface for video recommendation. Nowadays, the highly popular user generated content sites provide various sources of information such as tags for recommendation tasks. Motivated by a real world online video recommendation problem, this work targets at the long tail phenomena of user behavior and the sparsity of item features. A personalized compound recommendation framework for online video recommendation called Dirichlet mixture probit model for information scarcity (DPIS) is hence proposed. Assuming that each clicking sample is generated from a representation of user preferences, DPIS models the sample level topic proportions as a multinomial item vector, and utilizes topical clustering on the user part for recommendation through a probit classifier. As demonstrated by the real-world application, the proposed DPIS achieves better performance in accuracy, perplexity as well as diversity in coverage than traditional methods. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Contribution of chronic conditions to functional limitations using a multinomial outcome: Results for the older population in Belgium and Brazil

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Yokota, R.T.C. (Renata T.C.); W.J. Nusselder (Wilma); J-M. Robine (Jean-Marie); J. Tafforeau (Jean); P. Deboosere (Patrick); Moura, L. (Lenildo); Andrade, S.S.C.A. (Silvânia S.C.A.); Castro, S.S. (Shamyr S.); H. van Oyen (Herman)

    2017-01-01

    textabstractBackground: The global phenomenon of population ageing is creating new challenges in both high and middle income countries, as functional limitations are expected to increase with age. The attribution method has been proposed to identify which conditions contribute most to disability

  6. Survival analysis with covariates in combination with multinomial analysis to parametrize time to event for multi-state models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Feenstra, T.L.; Postmus, D.; Quik, E.H.; Langendijk, H.; Krabbe, P.F.M.

    Objectives: Recent ISPOR Good practice guidelines as well as literature encourage to use a single distribution rather than the latent failure approach to model time to event for patient level simulation models with multiple competing outcomes. Aim was to apply the preferred method of a single

  7. Predicting Teacher Value-Added Results in Non-Tested Subjects Based on Confounding Variables: A Multinomial Logistic Regression

    Science.gov (United States)

    Street, Nathan Lee

    2017-01-01

    Teacher value-added measures (VAM) are designed to provide information regarding teachers' causal impact on the academic growth of students while controlling for exogenous variables. While some researchers contend VAMs successfully and authentically measure teacher causality on learning, others suggest VAMs cannot adequately control for exogenous…

  8. Application of binomial and multinomial probability statistics to the sampling design process of a global grain tracing and recall system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Small, coded, pill-sized tracers embedded in grain are proposed as a method for grain traceability. A sampling process for a grain traceability system was designed and investigated by applying probability statistics using a science-based sampling approach to collect an adequate number of tracers fo...

  9. Survival analysis with covariates in combination with multinomial analysis to parametrize time to event for multi-state models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Feenstra, T.L.; Postmus, D.; Quik, E.H.; Langendijk, H.; Krabbe, P.F.M.

    2013-01-01

    Objectives: Recent ISPOR Good practice guidelines as well as literature encourage to use a single distribution rather than the latent failure approach to model time to event for patient level simulation models with multiple competing outcomes. Aim was to apply the preferred method of a single

  10. Determinantes de la participación laboral femenina en Venezuela: Aplicación de un modelo probit para el año 2005

    OpenAIRE

    Martínez, Ángel

    2010-01-01

    La participación laboral de la mujer es un tema de análisis en muchos estudios a nivel mundial, cuyo objetivo es presentar un panorama acerca de la igualdad de género en el empleo. La oferta y la demanda en el mercado de trabajo es el resultado de la interacción de variables principalmente sociales y económicas que se encuentran interconectadas. Este trabajo realiza un análisis conjunto de los determinantes de la participación laboral femenina en Venezuela. También analiza los determinantes d...

  11. Socio-Economic Factors Affecting Adoption of Modern Information and Communication Technology by Farmers in India: Analysis Using Multivariate Probit Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mittal, Surabhi; Mehar, Mamta

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: The paper analyzes factors that affect the likelihood of adoption of different agriculture-related information sources by farmers. Design/Methodology/Approach: The paper links the theoretical understanding of the existing multiple sources of information that farmers use, with the empirical model to analyze the factors that affect the…

  12. The Earnings Impact of Training Duration in a Developing Country. An Ordered Probit Selection Model of Colombia's "Servicio Nacional de Aprendizaje" (SENA).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jimenez, Emmanuel; Kugler, Bernardo

    1987-01-01

    Estimates the earnings impact of an extensive inservice training program in the developing world, Colombia's Servicio Nacional de Aprendizaje (SENA), through a comparison of nongraduates' and graduates' earnings profiles. (JOW)

  13. The Design and Analysis of Salmonid Tagging Studies in the Columbia Basin; Volume XII; A Multinomial Model for Estimating Ocean Survival from Salmonid Coded Wire-Tag Data.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ryding, Kristen E.; Skalski, John R.

    1999-06-01

    The purpose of this report is to illustrate the development of a stochastic model using coded wire-tag (CWT) release and age-at-return data, in order to regress first year ocean survival probabilities against coastal ocean conditions and climate covariates.

  14. Maternal and anaesthesia-related risk factors and incidence of spinal anaesthesia-induced hypotension in elective caesarean section: A multinomial logistic regression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fakherpour, Atousa; Ghaem, Haleh; Fattahi, Zeinabsadat; Zaree, Samaneh

    2018-01-01

    Although spinal anaesthesia (SA) is nowadays the preferred anaesthesia technique for caesarean section (CS), it is associated with considerable haemodynamic effects, such as maternal hypotension. This study aimed to evaluate a wide range of variables (related to parturient and anaesthesia techniques) associated with the incidence of different degrees of SA-induced hypotension during elective CS. This prospective study was conducted on 511 mother-infant pairs, in which the mother underwent elective CS under SA. The data were collected through preset proforma containing three parts related to the parturient, anaesthetic techniques and a table for recording maternal blood pressure. It was hypothesized that some maternal (such as age) and anaesthesia-related risk factors (such as block height) were associated with occurance of SA-induced hypotension during elective CS. The incidence of mild, moderate and severe hypotension was 20%, 35% and 40%, respectively. Eventually, ten risk factors were found to be associated with hypotension, including age >35 years, body mass index ≥25 kg/m 2 , 11-20 kg weight gain, gravidity ≥4, history of hypotension, baseline systolic blood pressure (SBP) 100 beats/min in maternal modelling, fluid preloading ≥1000 ml, adding sufentanil to bupivacaine and sensory block height >T 4 in anaesthesia-related modelling ( P < 0.05). Age, body mass index, weight gain, gravidity, history of hypotension, baseline SBP and heart rate, fluid preloading, adding sufentanil to bupivacaine and sensory block hieght were the main risk factors identified in the study for SA-induced hypotension during CS.

  15. Economic analysis of the potential impact of climate change on recreational trout fishing in the Southern Appalachian Mountains: An appication of a nested multinomial logti model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soeun Ahn; Joseph E. de Steiguer; Raymond B. Palmquist; Thomas P. Holmes

    2000-01-01

    Global warming due to the enhanced greenhouse effect through human activities has become a major public policy issue in recent years. The present study focuses on the potential economic impact of climate change on recreational trout fishing in the Southern Appalachian Mountains of North Carolina. Significant reductions in trout habitat and/or populations are...

  16. Liberalización económica y crecimiento económico. Modelo Logit Multinomial aplicado a la metodología de "Doing Business"

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alberto Gómez Mejía

    2011-01-01

    de Doing Business explican cómo, cuando un país implementa estos criterios, incrementa las posibilidades de pasar a un nivel de ingreso per cápita superior, lo cual implica mayor crecimiento económico y potencial desarrollo económico.

  17. A comparison of a new multinomial stopping rule with stopping rules of fleming and gehan in single arm phase II cancer clinical trials

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tu Dongsheng

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Response rate (RR alone may be insensitive to drug activity in phase II trials. Early progressive disease (EPD could improve sensitivity as well as increase stage I stopping rates. This study compares the previously developed dual endpoint stopping rule (DESR, which incorporates both RR and EPD into a two-stage, phase II trial, with rules using only RR. Methods Stopping rules according to the DESR were compared with studies conducted under the Fleming (16 trials or Gehan (23 trials designs. The RR hypothesis for the DESR was consistent with the comparison studies (ralt = 0.2, rnul = 0.05. Two parameter sets were used for EPD rates of interest and disinterest respectively (epdalt, epdnul: (0.4, 0.6 and (0.3, 0.5. Results Compared with Fleming, the DESR was more likely to allow stage two of accrual and to reject the null hypothesis (Hnul after stage two, with rejection being more common with EPD parameters (0.4, 0.6 than (0.3, 0.5. Compared with Gehan, both DESR parameter sets accepted Hnul in 15 trials after stage I compared with 8 trials by Gehan, with consistent conclusions in all 23 trials after stage II. Conclusions The DESR may reject Hnul when EPD rates alone are low, and thereby may improve phase II trial sensitivity to active, cytostatic drugs having limited response rates. Conversely, the DESR may invoke early stopping when response rates are low and EPD rates are high, thus shortening trials when drug activity is unlikely. EPD parameters should be chosen specific to each trial.

  18. Comparing Multiple-Group Multinomial Log-Linear Models for Multidimensional Skill Distributions in the General Diagnostic Model. Research Report. ETS RR-08-35

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Xueli; von Davier, Matthias

    2008-01-01

    The general diagnostic model (GDM) utilizes located latent classes for modeling a multidimensional proficiency variable. In this paper, the GDM is extended by employing a log-linear model for multiple populations that assumes constraints on parameters across multiple groups. This constrained model is compared to log-linear models that assume…

  19. Maternal and anaesthesia-related risk factors and incidence of spinal anaesthesia-induced hypotension in elective caesarean section: A multinomial logistic regression

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Atousa Fakherpour

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Background and Aims: Although spinal anaesthesia (SA is nowadays the preferred anaesthesia technique for caesarean section (CS, it is associated with considerable haemodynamic effects, such as maternal hypotension. This study aimed to evaluate a wide range of variables (related to parturient and anaesthesia techniques associated with the incidence of different degrees of SA-induced hypotension during elective CS. Methods: This prospective study was conducted on 511 mother–infant pairs, in which the mother underwent elective CS under SA. The data were collected through preset proforma containing three parts related to the parturient, anaesthetic techniques and a table for recording maternal blood pressure. It was hypothesized that some maternal (such as age and anaesthesia-related risk factors (such as block height were associated with occurance of SA-induced hypotension during elective CS. Results: The incidence of mild, moderate and severe hypotension was 20%, 35% and 40%, respectively. Eventually, ten risk factors were found to be associated with hypotension, including age >35 years, body mass index ≥25 kg/m2, 11–20 kg weight gain, gravidity ≥4, history of hypotension, baseline systolic blood pressure (SBP 100 beats/min in maternal modelling, fluid preloading ≥1000 ml, adding sufentanil to bupivacaine and sensory block height >T4in anaesthesia-related modelling (P < 0.05. Conclusion: Age, body mass index, weight gain, gravidity, history of hypotension, baseline SBP and heart rate, fluid preloading, adding sufentanil to bupivacaine and sensory block hieght were the main risk factors identified in the study for SA-induced hypotension during CS.

  20. A comparison of generalized multinomial logit, random parameters logit, wtp-space and latent class models to studying consumers' preferences for animal welfare

    OpenAIRE

    Kallas, Zein; Borrisser-Pairó,, Francesc; Martínez, Beatriz; Vieira, Ceferina; Panella-Riera, Nuria; Olivar, Maria Angels; Gil Roig, José María

    2016-01-01

    The European societies are requiring that animals to be raised as closely as possible to their natural conditions. The growing concerns about animal welfare is resulting in continuous modifications of regulations and policies that led to ban of a number of intensive farming methods. The European authorities consider the pig welfare as a priority issue. They are studying to ban surgical pig castration by 2018, which may seriously affect markets and consumers due to boar tainted-meat. This stud...

  1. The relationship between organizational culture and performance in acute hospitals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacobs, Rowena; Mannion, Russell; Davies, Huw T O; Harrison, Stephen; Konteh, Fred; Walshe, Kieran

    2013-01-01

    This paper examines the relationship between senior management team culture and organizational performance in English acute hospitals (NHS Trusts) over three time periods between 2001/2002 and 2007/2008. We use a validated culture rating instrument, the Competing Values Framework, to measure senior management team culture. Organizational performance is assessed using a wide range of routinely collected indicators. We examine the associations between organizational culture and performance using ordered probit and multinomial logit models. We find that organizational culture varies across hospitals and over time, and this variation is at least in part associated in consistent and predictable ways with a variety of organizational characteristics and routine measures of performance. Moreover, hospitals are moving towards more competitive culture archetypes which mirror the current policy context, though with a stronger blend of cultures. The study provides evidence for a relationship between culture and performance in hospital settings. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Differentiated influences of benefit and risk perceptions on nuclear power acceptance according to acceptance levels. Evidence from Korea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roh, Seungkook; Lee Jinwon

    2017-01-01

    The perceived benefit and risk of nuclear power generation have received considerable attention as determinants of the public's nuclear power acceptance. However, the contingency of the relative importance of these benefit and risk has been less explored. Using Korea as an example, this study explores the possibility that the relative importance of perceived benefit and risk on nuclear power acceptance depends on acceptance levels. Our results from latent class analysis and multinomial probit show that, in determining whether an individual shows a moderate level of nuclear power acceptance rather than a low level, perceived risk plays a dominant role compared to perceived benefit; however, regarding whether he/she shows a high level of nuclear power acceptance rather than a moderate level, this relative importance is reversed. These results carry practical implications for risk governance of nuclear power, particularly with regard to communication with the public. (author)

  3. Mind the information gap: fertility rate and use of cesarean delivery and tocolytic hospitalizations in Taiwan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Ke-Zong M; Norton, Edward C; Lee, Shoou-Yih D

    2011-12-12

    Physician-induced demand (PID) is an important theory to test given the longstanding controversy surrounding it. Empirical health economists have been challenged to find natural experiments to test the theory because PID is tantamount to strong income effects. The data requirements are both a strong exogenous change in income and two types of treatment that are substitutes but have different net revenues. The theory implies that an exogenous fall in income would lead physicians to recoup their income by substituting a more expensive treatment for a less expensive treatment. This study takes advantages of the dramatic decline in the Taiwanese fertility rate to examine whether an exogenous and negative income shock to obstetricians and gynecologists (ob/gyns) affected the use of c-sections, which has a higher reimbursement rate than vaginal delivery under Taiwan's National Health Insurance system during the study period, and tocolytic hospitalizations. The primary data were obtained from the 1996 to 2004 National Health Insurance Research Database in Taiwan. We hypothesized that a negative income shock to ob/gyns would cause them to provide more c-sections and tocolytic hospitalizations to less medically-informed pregnant women. Multinomial probit and probit models were estimated and the marginal effects of the interaction term were conducted to estimate the impacts of ob/gyn to birth ratio and the information gap. Our results showed that a decline in fertility did not lead ob/gyns to supply more c-sections to less medically-informed pregnant women, and that during fertility decline ob/gyns may supply more tocolytic hospitalizations to compensate their income loss, regardless of pregnant women's access to health information. The exogenous decline in the Taiwanese fertility rate and the use of detailed medical information and demographic attributes of pregnant women allowed us to avoid the endogeneity problem that threatened the validity of prior research. They also

  4. Innovation and motivation in public health professionals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    García-Goñi, Manuel; Maroto, Andrés; Rubalcaba, Luis

    2007-12-01

    Innovations in public health services promote increases in the health status of the population. Therefore, it is a major concern for health policy makers to understand the drivers of innovation processes. This paper focuses on the differences in behaviour of managers and front-line employees in the pro-innovative provision of public health services. We utilize a survey conducted on front-line employees and managers in public health institutions across six European countries. The survey covers topics related to satisfaction, or attitude towards innovation or their institution. We undertake principal components analysis and analysis of variance, and estimate a multinomial ordered probit model to analyse the existence of different behaviour in managers and front-line employees with respect to innovation. Perception of innovation is different for managers and front-line employees in public health institutions. While front-line employees' attitude depends mostly on the overall performance of the institution, managers feel more involved and motivated, and their behaviour depends more on individual and organisational innovative profiles. It becomes crucial to make both managers and front-line employees at public health institutions feel participative and motivated in order to maximise the benefits of technical or organisational innovative process in the health services provision.

  5. Willingness to pay for renewable energy investment in Korea: A choice experiment study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ku, Se-Ju; Yoo, Seung-Hoon

    2010-01-01

    Renewable energy sources are considered as alternatives for coping with the high price of oil and global warming. The Korean government has set a target that 11% of the total primary energy supply should be obtained through renewable energy sources until 2030. In order to develop proper policies for renewable energy investment, it is necessary to analyze the benefits of renewable energy investment based on households' willingness to pay. This study attempts to apply a choice experiment (CE) for assessing renewable energy investment in Korea. Moreover, we employ a multinomial probit (MNP) model to relax the assumption that all respondents have the same preferences for the attributes being valued, which is usually required in empirical CE studies. An MNP model allows the most flexible pattern of error correlation structure. The results reveal that the Korean public puts a value on the protection of wildlife, reduction of pollution, and increased employment opportunities. On the other hand, respondents do not derive significant values from the improvement of landscapes. This study is expected to provide policy-makers with useful information for evaluating and planning policies related to renewable energy investment. (author)

  6. A Capacity-Restraint Transit Assignment Model When a Predetermination Method Indicates the Invalidity of Time Independence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haoyang Ding

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The statistical independence of time of every two adjacent bus links plays a crucial role in deciding the feasibility of using many mathematical models to analyze urban transit networks. Traditional research generally ignores the time independence that acts as the ground of their models. Assumption is usually made that time independence of every two adjacent links is sound. This is, however, actually groundless and probably causes problematic conclusions reached by corresponding models. Many transit assignment models such as multinomial probit-based models lose their effects when the time independence is not valid. In this paper, a simple method to predetermine the time independence is proposed. Based on the predetermination method, a modified capacity-restraint transit assignment method aimed at engineering practice is put forward and tested through a small contrived network and a case study in Nanjing city, China, respectively. It is found that the slope of regression equation between the mean and standard deviation of normal distribution acts as the indicator of time independence at the same time. Besides, our modified assignment method performs better than the traditional one with more reasonable results while keeping the property of simplicity well.

  7. Market Participation and Agro-Biodiversity Loss: The Case of Native Chili Varieties in the Amazon Rainforest of Peru

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jaqueline Garcia-Yi

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Policies for promoting the in situ conservation of underutilized crop varieties include the provision of economic incentives to farmers for their market commercialization. Nevertheless, market participation could also have the counter-effect of favoring the cultivation of uniform commercial crop varieties and inducing the erosion of crop genetic diversity. The objective of this research was to identify the determinants of the in situ conservation of native chili varieties, including market participation. To this end, 128 farmers were surveyed in the Amazon rainforest region of Ucayali in Peru. The data were analyzed using probit, multinomial logit and truncated Poisson models with covariance matrix correction for cluster errors by rural community. Results suggest that participation in commercial agriculture statistically significantly increases the in situ conservation of native chili varieties; only when farmers sell their products to local retailers, but not when they supply wholesalers. In particular, this result implies that policies designed to encourage specific forms of market participation could have a positive effect on farmers’ economic well-being and simultaneously could help to achieve crop genetic diversity conservation goals.

  8. Formal and informal care for disabled elderly living in the community: an appraisal of French care composition and costs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paraponaris, Alain; Davin, Bérengère; Verger, Pierre

    2012-06-01

    Choices between formal and informal care for disabled elderly people living at home are a key component of the long-term care provision issues faced by an ageing population. This paper aims to identify factors associated with the type of care (informal, formal, mixed or no care at all) received by the French disabled elderly and to assess the care's relative costs. This paper uses data from a French survey on disability; the 3,500 respondents of interest lived at home, were aged 60 and over, had severe disability and needed help with activities of daily living. We use a multinomial probit model to determine factors associated with type of care. We also assess the cost of care with the help of the proxy good method. One-third of disabled elderly people receive no care. Among those who are helped, 55% receive informal, 25% formal, and 20% mixed care. Low socioeconomic status increases difficulties in accessing formal care. The estimated economic value of informal care is 6.6 billion euro [95% CI = 5.9-7.2] and represents about two-thirds of the total cost of care. Public policies should pay more attention to inequalities in access to community care. They also should better support informal care, through respite care or workplace accommodations (working hours rescheduling or reduction for instance) not detrimental for the career of working caregivers.

  9. Innovation investment decisions: are post(transition economies different from the rest of the EU?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ljiljana BOZIĆ

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The slow progress of innovation in transition economies is not related just to firms’ decision to invest in innovation activities. Rather, it is worth distinguishing between their decision to increase investment, reduce it, keep their investments at the same level or not invest in innovation activities at all. To understand these decisions we develop and estimate models for post-transition and developed European countries employing multinomial probit. The analysis relies on responses of 2580 firms from 11 post-transition countries and 4058 firms from 18 European countries collected by the Flash Eurobarometer 433 - Innobarometer 2016 survey. We have established that the firms’ decision making process in general is mostly related to previous innovation investment experience. In transition countries, the higher the percent of turnover invested in innovation, the lower the probability of an increase in the future. In the firms operating in developed economies, lower turnover from new products is related to the decision to decrease innovation investment in the future.

  10. Highway Expenditures and Associated Customer Satisfaction: A Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexander Paz

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This study analyzes the satisfaction of the Nevadans with respect to their highway transportation system and the corresponding expenditures of Nevada Department of Transportation (NDOT. A survey questionnaire was designed to capture the opinions of the Nevadans (customers about a number of characteristics of their transportation system. Data from the financial data warehouse of the NDOT was used to evaluate expenditures. Multinomial probit models were estimated to study the correlations between customers’ opinion and the government expenditures in transportation. The results indicate the customer satisfaction is decreasing with respect to traffic safety throughout Northwestern and Southern Nevada highways. In addition, users of Northwestern highways are more likely to be satisfied, compared to their counterparts, with increasing construction spending to reduce the time taken to complete construction projects. In Southern Nevada highways, customers’ satisfaction increases with the expenditures associated with reduction of congestion. These insights are examples of the conclusions that were obtained as a consequence of simultaneously considering customer satisfaction and the corresponding expenditures in transportation.

  11. Seeking treatment for symptomatic malaria in Papua New Guinea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Siba Peter

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Malaria places a significant burden on the limited resources of many low income countries. Knowing more about why and where people seek treatment will enable policy makers to better allocate the limited resources. This study aims to better understand what influences treatment-seeking behaviour for malaria in one such low-income country context, Papua New Guinea (PNG. Methods Two culturally, linguistically and demographically different regions in PNG were selected as study sites. A cross sectional household survey was undertaken in both sites resulting in the collection of data on 928 individuals who reported suffering from malaria in the previous four weeks. A probit model was then used to identify the factors determining whether or not people sought treatment for presumptive malaria. Multinomial logit models also assisted in identifying the factors that determined where people sought treatments. Results Results in this study build upon findings from other studies. For example, while distance in PNG has previously been seen as the primary factor in influencing whether any sort of treatment will be sought, in this study cultural influences and whether it was the first, second or even third treatment for a particular episode of malaria were also important. In addition, although formal health care facilities were the most popular treatment sources, it was also found that traditional healers were a common choice. In turn, the reasons why participants chose a particular type of treatment differed according to the whether they were seeking an initial or subsequent treatments. Conclusions Simply bringing health services closer to where people live may not always result in a greater use of formal health care facilities. Policy makers in PNG need to consider within-country variation in treatment-seeking behaviour, the important role of traditional healers and also ensure that the community fully understands the potential implications

  12. Do objective neighbourhood characteristics relate to residents' preferences for certain sports locations? A cross-sectional study using a discrete choice modelling approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deelen, Ineke; Jansen, Marijke; Dogterom, Nico J; Kamphuis, Carlijn B M; Ettema, Dick

    2017-12-11

    The number of sports facilities, sports clubs, or city parks in a residential neighbourhood may affect the likelihood that people participate in sports and their preferences for a certain sports location. This study aimed to assess whether objective physical and socio-spatial neighbourhood characteristics relate to sports participation and preferences for sports locations. Data from Dutch adults (N = 1201) on sports participation, their most-used sports location, and socio-demographic characteristics were collected using an online survey. Objective land-use data and the number of sports facilities were gathered for each participant using a 2000-m buffer around their home locations, whereas socio-spatial neighbourhood characteristics (i.e., density, socio-economic status, and safety) were determined at the neighbourhood level. A discrete choice-modelling framework (multinomial probit model) was used to model the associations between neighbourhood characteristics and sports participation and location. Higher proportions of green space, blue space, and the number of sports facilities were positively associated with sports participation in public space, at sports clubs, and at other sports facilities. Higher degrees of urbanization were negatively associated with sports participation at public spaces, sports clubs, and other sports facilities. Those with more green space, blue space or sports facilities in their residential neighbourhood were more likely to participate in sports, but these factors did not affect their preference for a certain sports location. Longitudinal study designs are necessary to assess causality: do active people choose to live in sports-facilitating neighbourhoods, or do neighbourhood characteristics affect sports participation?

  13. Multi-disciplinary decision making in general practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirby, Ann; Murphy, Aileen; Bradley, Colin

    2018-04-09

    Purpose Internationally, healthcare systems are moving towards delivering care in an integrated manner which advocates a multi-disciplinary approach to decision making. Such an approach is formally encouraged in the management of Atrial Fibrillation patients through the European Society of Cardiology guidelines. Since the emergence of new oral anticoagulants switching between oral anticoagulants (OACs) has become prevalent. This case study considers the role of multi-disciplinary decision making, given the complex nature of the agents. The purpose of this paper is to explore Irish General Practitioners' (GPs) experience of switching between all OACs for Arial Fibrillation (AF) patients; prevalence of multi-disciplinary decision making in OAC switching decisions and seeks to determine the GP characteristics that appear to influence the likelihood of multi-disciplinary decision making. Design/methodology/approach A probit model is used to determine the factors influencing multi-disciplinary decision making and a multinomial logit is used to examine the factors influencing who is involved in the multi-disciplinary decisions. Findings Results reveal that while some multi-disciplinary decision-making is occurring (64 per cent), it is not standard practice despite international guidelines on integrated care. Moreover, there is a lack of patient participation in the decision-making process. Female GPs and GPs who have initiated prescriptions for OACs are more likely to engage in multi-disciplinary decision-making surrounding switching OACs amongst AF patients. GPs with training practices were less likely to engage with cardiac consultants and those in urban areas were more likely to engage with other (non-cardiac) consultants. Originality/value For optimal decision making under uncertainty multi-disciplinary decision-making is needed to make a more informed judgement and to improve treatment decisions and reduce the opportunity cost of making the wrong decision.

  14. Discrete choice experiments in pharmacy: a review of the literature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naik-Panvelkar, Pradnya; Armour, Carol; Saini, Bandana

    2013-02-01

    Discrete choice experiments (DCEs) have been widely used to elicit patient preferences for various healthcare services and interventions. The aim of our study was to conduct an in-depth scoping review of the literature and provide a current overview of the progressive application of DCEs within the field of pharmacy. Electronic databases (MEDLINE, EMBASE, SCOPUS, ECONLIT) were searched (January 1990-August 2011) to identify published English language studies using DCEs within the pharmacy context. Data were abstracted with respect to DCE methodology and application to pharmacy. Our search identified 12 studies. The DCE methodology was utilised to elicit preferences for different aspects of pharmacy products, therapy or services. Preferences were elicited from either patients or pharmacists, with just two studies incorporating the views of both. Most reviewed studies examined preferences for process-related or provider-related aspects with a lesser focus on health outcomes. Monetary attributes were considered to be important by most patients and pharmacists in the studies reviewed. Logit, probit or multinomial logit models were most commonly employed for estimation. Our study showed that the pharmacy profession has adopted the DCE methodology consistent with the general health DCEs although the number of studies is quite limited. Future studies need to examine preferences of both patients and providers for particular products or disease-state management services. Incorporation of health outcome attributes in the design, testing for external validity and the incorporation of DCE results in economic evaluation framework to inform pharmacy policy remain important areas for future research. © 2012 The Authors. IJPP © 2012 Royal Pharmaceutical Society.

  15. Small individual loans and mental health: a randomized controlled trial among South African adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernald, Lia C H; Hamad, Rita; Karlan, Dean; Ozer, Emily J; Zinman, Jonathan

    2008-12-16

    In the developing world, access to small, individual loans has been variously hailed as a poverty-alleviation tool - in the context of "microcredit" - but has also been criticized as "usury" and harmful to vulnerable borrowers. Prior studies have assessed effects of access to credit on traditional economic outcomes for poor borrowers, but effects on mental health have been largely ignored. Applicants who had previously been rejected (n = 257) for a loan (200% annual percentage rate - APR) from a lender in South Africa were randomly assigned to a "second-look" that encouraged loan officers to approve their applications. This randomized encouragement resulted in 53% of applicants receiving a loan they otherwise would not have received. All subjects were assessed 6-12 months later with questions about demographics, socio-economic status, and two indicators of mental health: the Center for Epidemiologic Studies - Depression Scale (CES-D) and Cohen's Perceived Stress scale. Intent-to-treat analyses were calculated using multinomial probit regressions. Randomization into receiving a "second look" for access to credit increased perceived stress in the combined sample of women and men; the findings were stronger among men. Credit access was associated with reduced depressive symptoms in men, but not women. Our findings suggest that a mechanism used to reduce the economic stress of extremely poor individuals can have mixed effects on their experiences of psychological stress and depressive symptomatology. Our data support the notion that mental health should be included as a measure of success (or failure) when examining potential tools for poverty alleviation. Further longitudinal research is needed in South Africa and other settings to understand how borrowing at high interest rates affects gender roles and daily life activities. CCT: ISRCTN 10734925.

  16. The Impact of Income and Taxation in a Price-Tiered Cigarette Market - findings from the ITC Bangladesh Surveys.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huq, Iftekharul; Nargis, Nigar; Lkhagvasuren, Damba; Hussain, Akm Ghulam; Fong, Geoffrey T

    2018-04-25

    Taxing tobacco is among the most effective measures of tobacco control. However, in a tiered market structure where multiple tiers of taxes coexist, the anticipated impact of tobacco taxes on consumption is complex. This paper investigates changing smoking behaviour in lieu of changing prices and changing income. The objective of the paper is to evaluate the effectiveness of change in prices (through taxes) and change in income in a price-tiered cigarette market. A panel dataset from the International Tobacco Control Bangladesh surveys is used for analysis. For preliminary analysis transition matrices are developed. Next, probit and multinomial logit regression models are used to identify the effects of changes in prices and changes in income along with other control variables. Transition matrices show significant movement of smokers across price tiers from one wave to another. Regression results show that higher income raises the probability to up-trade and decreases the probability to down-trade. Results also show that higher prices raises the probability to up-trade and reduces the probability to down-trade. Although not significant, there exists a negative relationship between the probability to down-trade and the probability to intend to quit. It is evident from the results that a price-tiered market provides smokers more opportunities to accommodate their smoking behaviour when faced with price and income change. Therefore, tiered structure of the tax system should be replaced with uniform taxes. Moreover, overall cigarette taxes need to be raised to an extent so that it off-sets any positive effects of income growth. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

  17. Vocational and General Education of Girls and Boys in Tunisia: The Effects of Income and Parental Education

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohamed Siala

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Throughout Tunisia, basic education is compulsory. Children are required to enroll for at least 9 years from age 6. This paper examines gender differences in education choice of upper basic education of youths aged 15–24 in Tunisia. To investigate the factors that influence an individual’s choice between vocational education, general education (secondary and high education and leaving school, the paper estimates a multinomial probit model of education choice. We focus on the impact of household income, parental education, sector of economic activity of father, household size, urban location and region of residence on investments in children. These issues are addressed using data from the 2010 National PopulationEmployment Survey that provided information on educational attainment and vocational training of more than 55,000 youths aged 15-24. The findings of this paper suggest that there are gender differences in education choice. Increases in permanent income contribute more to the probabilities of the two types of education of girls than of boys. Parental education has a positive significant effect on their attitudes towards children education and the impact of mother’s higher education was more important for the education of boys than of girls. While, father’s coefficient estimates show the relative benefit to girls general education. Children whose fathers work in agriculture are at disadvantage. The negative effect on girls’ education was larger than on boys’ at the two streams of education. The coefficient estimates on the manufacturing sector increase the probabilities of receiving general education and decrease the probabilities of undertaking vocational education for both girls and boys.

  18. Legisladores, captadores e assistencialistas: a representação política no nível local

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Felix Lopez

    Full Text Available Resumo O artigo analisa a representação política local, focando as percepções e práticas cotidianas dos vereadores. Em particular, analisam-se suas escolhas entre estratégias de representação clientelistas e universalistas. Utilizam-se dados originais de entrevistas abertas semiestruturadas com amostra não representativa de 112 vereadores de 12 municípios de Minas Gerais. Por meio de análise qualitativa, classificam-se os vereadores em três tipos, de acordo com sua principal estratégia de representação, a saber: “legislador”, que se dedica mais às funções formais da vereança; “captador”, que prioriza o atendimento de pedidos coletivos dos eleitores; “assistencialista”, que prioriza o atendimento de pedidos particulares. Com base na literatura teórica sobre clientelismo, oferecem-se hipóteses explicativas das estratégias de representação dos vereadores, que são testadas estatisticamente utilizando-se um modelo probit multinomial. Os resultados sugerem que essas estratégias são qualitativamente distintas e que a probabilidade de ocorrência do tipo assistencialista é maior em municípios pequenos, crescente no acirramento da competição política e decrescente na volatilidade eleitoral. Também há evidência fraca de que essa probabilidade é decrescente na escolaridade do vereador e crescente no seu tempo de vereança.

  19. Immigrants' language skills: the immigrant experience in a longitudinal survey

    OpenAIRE

    Barry CHISWICK; Yew LEE; Paul W. MILLER

    2003-01-01

    This paper is concerned with the determinants of English language proficiency among immigrants. It presents a model based on economic incentives, exposure, and efficiency in language acquisition, which it tests using the Longitudinal Survey of Immigrants to Australia. Probit and bivariate probit analyses are employed. The hypotheses are supported by the data. The bivariate probit analysis across waves indicates a "regression to the mean" in the unobserved components of English language profic...

  20. Patterns and correlates of solid waste disposal practices in Dar es ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    USER

    collection. Key words: Solid waste, garbage, waste disposal, waste management, Multinomial Logit model. INTRODUCTION. Urbanization introduces society to a new, modern way of ..... Multinomial logistic estimation. .... The trend of using.

  1. Comparative analysis of informal borrowing behaviour between ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Tools of analyses were descriptive statistics of mean and percentages and probit model, The result of the Probit model on the variables influencing borrowing behaviour of male-headed households indicated that the coefficients of household size, farm size, purpose of borrowing, loan duration, interest rate and collateral ...

  2. Genetic parameter estimation of reproductive traits of Litopenaeus vannamei

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Jian; Kong, Jie; Cao, Baoxiang; Luo, Kun; Liu, Ning; Meng, Xianhong; Xu, Shengyu; Guo, Zhaojia; Chen, Guoliang; Luan, Sheng

    2017-02-01

    In this study, the heritability, repeatability, phenotypic correlation, and genetic correlation of the reproductive and growth traits of L. vannamei were investigated and estimated. Eight traits of 385 shrimps from forty-two families, including the number of eggs (EN), number of nauplii (NN), egg diameter (ED), spawning frequency (SF), spawning success (SS), female body weight (BW) and body length (BL) at insemination, and condition factor (K), were measured,. A total of 519 spawning records including multiple spawning and 91 no spawning records were collected. The genetic parameters were estimated using an animal model, a multinomial logit model (for SF), and a sire-dam and probit model (for SS). Because there were repeated records, permanent environmental effects were included in the models. The heritability estimates for BW, BL, EN, NN, ED, SF, SS, and K were 0.49 ± 0.14, 0.51 ± 0.14, 0.12 ± 0.08, 0, 0.01 ± 0.04, 0.06 ± 0.06, 0.18 ± 0.07, and 0.10 ± 0.06, respectively. The genetic correlation was 0.99 ± 0.01 between BW and BL, 0.90 ± 0.19 between BW and EN, 0.22 ± 0.97 between BW and ED, -0.77 ± 1.14 between EN and ED, and -0.27 ± 0.36 between BW and K. The heritability of EN estimated without a covariate was 0.12 ± 0.08, and the genetic correlation was 0.90 ± 0.19 between BW and EN, indicating that improving BW may be used in selection programs to genetically improve the reproductive output of L. vannamei during the breeding. For EN, the data were also analyzed using body weight as a covariate (EN-2). The heritability of EN-2 was 0.03 ± 0.05, indicating that it is difficult to improve the reproductive output by genetic improvement. Furthermore, excessive pursuit of this selection is often at the expense of growth speed. Therefore, the selection of high-performance spawners using BW and SS may be an important strategy to improve nauplii production.

  3. Treatment choices for fevers in children under-five years in a rural Ghanaian district

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gyapong Margaret

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Health care demand studies help to examine the behaviour of individuals and households during illnesses. Few of existing health care demand studies examine the choice of treatment services for childhood illnesses. Besides, in their analyses, many of the existing studies compare alternative treatment options to a single option, usually self-medication. This study aims at examining the factors that influence the choices that caregivers of children under-five years make regarding treatment of fevers due to malaria and pneumonia in a rural setting. The study also examines how the choice of alternative treatment options compare with each other. Methods The study uses data from a 2006 household socio-economic survey and health and demographic surveillance covering caregivers of 529 children under-five years of age in the Dangme West District and applies a multinomial probit technique to model the choice of treatment services for fevers in under-fives in rural Ghana. Four health care options are considered: self-medication, over-the-counter providers, public providers and private providers. Results The findings indicate that longer travel, waiting and treatment times encourage people to use self-medication and over-the-counter providers compared to public and private providers. Caregivers with health insurance coverage also use care from public providers compared to over-the-counter or private providers. Caregivers with higher incomes use public and private providers over self-medication while higher treatment charges and longer times at public facilities encourage caregivers to resort to private providers. Besides, caregivers of female under-fives use self-care while caregivers of male under-fives use public providers instead of self-care, implying gender disparity in the choice of treatment. Conclusions The results of this study imply that efforts at curbing under-five mortality due to malaria and pneumonia need to take into

  4. A new spatial multiple discrete-continuous modeling approach to land use change analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-09-01

    This report formulates a multiple discrete-continuous probit (MDCP) land-use model within a : spatially explicit economic structural framework for land-use change decisions. The spatial : MDCP model is capable of predicting both the type and intensit...

  5. CHAPTER 1

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Dr Olaleye

    The Probit regression showed statistical significant (p<0.05) impact of contact and precautionary indices .... parameters of the estimated model are denoted as β. ... Where is the constant term and is the stochastic error term.

  6. Download this PDF file

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Dr Kazungu

    breastfeeding which is a health-related good or behavior that yields utility to the mother and also affects the health of ... money or assets owned by the household (non-labor income). ...... mechanisms (Marginal effects after a probit estimation).

  7. AFRREV IJAH, Vol.1 (4) November, 2012

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    First Lady

    Department of Banking & Finance, University of Benin, Nigeria. E-mail: ... discriminant analysis, ordinary least squares regression, correlation Matrix and Logit - Probit regression, ..... The use of financial statements for control and profit,ŗ In the ...

  8. Adding a Performance-Based Component to Surface Warfare Officer Bonuses: Will it Affect Retention?

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Carman, Aron S; Mudd, Ryan M

    2008-01-01

    ... to Lieutenant Commander (0-4). Probit regressions showed that top performers exhibited higher retention rates than lower-performing peers, though pay had a stronger retention effect among low performers...

  9. El Dinero como Indicador Líder

    OpenAIRE

    Se Kyu Choi-Ha; Luis Felipe Lagos

    2003-01-01

    For policy makers and business cycles analysts is important to count on variables that anticipate points of inflection in economic activity. This paper studies aggregate real money balances as leader indicator of the economic activity based on a Probit mo

  10. extent of use of ict by fish farmers in isoko agricultural zone of delta ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Mr. TONY A

    Descriptive statistics and binary probit model were the tools of analyses. ... extension services and affordable credit will help in promoting the ... Depending on the extension approach, farmers should either pay totally or partially the extension ...

  11. Factors influencing cassava - pulp fermentation period for gari ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Factors influencing cassava - pulp fermentation period for gari processing among ... Result of probit model analysis at 5% significance level shows an R value ... Marital status (2.236**) and respondents' cultural influences (1.960**) were ...

  12. The Dynamics of Poverty and Vulnerability in Rural Ethiopia

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    from the random effects probit model suggest that determinants of poverty status in rural Ethiopia ... 1 School of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness, ... security policies, strategies and programs in the last two decades (FDRE,. 2004 ...

  13. Determinants of Fisher's Choice of Fishing Activity along the Volta ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Determinants of Fisher's Choice of Fishing Activity along the Volta Lake in Yeji ... The analysis was done using the Ordered Probit Model and descriptive statistics. ... economic growth, reduce poverty and ensure household food security in Yeji.

  14. Causal mediation analysis with a binary outcome and multiple continuous or ordinal mediators: Simulations and application to an alcohol intervention

    OpenAIRE

    Nguyen, Trang Quynh; Webb-Vargas, Yenny; Koning, Ina M.; Stuart, Elizabeth A.

    2016-01-01

    We investigate a method to estimate the combined effect of multiple continuous/ordinal mediators on a binary outcome: 1) fit a structural equation model with probit link for the outcome and identity/probit link for continuous/ordinal mediators, 2) predict potential outcome probabilities, and 3) compute natural direct and indirect effects. Step 2 involves rescaling the latent continuous variable underlying the outcome to address residual mediator variance/covariance. We evaluate the estimation...

  15. The Effects of Designated Pollutants on Plants

    Science.gov (United States)

    1978-11-01

    Persea americana Mill. Haas and Bacon Barley Hordeum vulgare L. CM 67 Bean Phaseolus vulgaris L. Pinto, U.I. III Briza Briza maxima L. Ornamental...Tagetes patula L. French dwarf double goldie Marigold Tagetes erecta L. American ,Senator Dirksen Petunia Petunia hybrida Vilm. White cascade Radish...Probit analysis of five plant species: citrus seedlings, lemon, orange,, grape, French marigold, American marigold. Probit scale is the probability that a

  16. Modeling Word Burstiness Using the Dirichlet Distribution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Rasmus Elsborg; Kauchak, David; Elkan, Charles

    2005-01-01

    Multinomial distributions are often used to model text documents. However, they do not capture well the phenomenon that words in a document tend to appear in bursts: if a word appears once, it is more likely to appear again. In this paper, we propose the Dirichlet compound multinomial model (DCM......) as an alternative to the multinomial. The DCM model has one additional degree of freedom, which allows it to capture burstiness. We show experimentally that the DCM is substantially better than the multinomial at modeling text data, measured by perplexity. We also show using three standard document collections...

  17. Composite Linear Models | Division of Cancer Prevention

    Science.gov (United States)

    By Stuart G. Baker The composite linear models software is a matrix approach to compute maximum likelihood estimates and asymptotic standard errors for models for incomplete multinomial data. It implements the method described in Baker SG. Composite linear models for incomplete multinomial data. Statistics in Medicine 1994;13:609-622. The software includes a library of thirty

  18. Risk Pricing in Emerging Economies: Credit Scoring and Private Banking in Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yiannis Anagnostopoulos

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Iran’s banking industry as a developing country is comparatively very new to risk management practices. An inevitable predictive implication of this rapid growth is the growing concerns with regard to credit risk management which is the motivation of conducting this research. The paper focuses on the credit scoring aspect of credit risk management using both logit and probit regression approaches. Real data on corporate customers are available for conducting this research which is also a contribution to this area for all other developing countries. Our questions focus on how future customers can be classified in terms of credibility, which models and methods are more effective in better capturing risks. Findings suggest that probit approaches are more effective in capturing the significance of variables and goodness-of-fitness tests. Seven variables of the Ohlson O-Score model are used: CL_CA, INTWO, OENEG, TA_TL, SIZE, WCAP_TA, and ROA; two were found to be statistically significant in logit (ROA, TL_TA and three were statistically significant in probit (ROA, TL_TA, SIZE. Also, CL_CA, ROA, and WCAP_TA were the three variables with an unexpected correlation to the probability of default. The prediction power with the cut-off point is set equal to 26% and 56.91% for defaulted customers in both logit and probit models. However, logit achieved 54.85% correct estimation of defaulted assets, 0.37% more than what probit estimated.

  19. Modelling Stochastic Route Choice Behaviours with a Closed-Form Mixed Logit Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xinjun Lai

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available A closed-form mixed Logit approach is proposed to model the stochastic route choice behaviours. It combines both the advantages of Probit and Logit to provide a flexible form in alternatives correlation and a tractable form in expression; besides, the heterogeneity in alternative variance can also be addressed. Paths are compared by pairs where the superiority of the binary Probit can be fully used. The Probit-based aggregation is also used for a nested Logit structure. Case studies on both numerical and empirical examples demonstrate that the new method is valid and practical. This paper thus provides an operational solution to incorporate the normal distribution in route choice with an analytical expression.

  20. Mortalidad infantil en Uruguay: un análisis de supervivencia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jewell R. Todd

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available A partir de todos los nacimientos ocurridos en el Uruguay entre 2002 y 2003 y las defunciones ocurridas en el primer año de vida, se estima la tasa de mortalidad infantil a través de modelos probit y hazard. Debido a que las muertes se concentran en los primeros días y semanas de vida, el modelo hazard es preferible al probit, encontrándose que la estimación probit sobreestima los efectos de las covariables. Los resultados muestran que las variables más importantes son la edad y la educación de la madre, los cuidados prenatales y los denominados predictores de la mortalidad (bajo peso al nacer, semanas de gestación y APGAR.

  1. Comparison on models for genetic evaluation of non-return rate and success in first insemination of the Danish Holstein cow

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sun, C; Su, G

    2010-01-01

    The aim of is study was to compare a linear Gaussian model with logit model and probit model for genetic evaluation of non-return rate within 56 d after first-insemination (NRR56) and success in first insemination (SFI). The whole dataset used in the analysis contained 471,742 records from...... the EBV of proven bulls, obtained from the whole dataset and from a reduced dataset which only contains the first-crop daughters of sires; 2) χ2 statistic for the expected and observed frequency in a cross validation. Heritabilities estimated using linear, probit and logit models were 0.011, 0.014 and 0....... Model validation showed that there was no difference between probit model and logit model, but the two models were better than linear model in stability and predictive ability for genetic evaluation of NRR56 and SFI. However, based on the whole dataset, the correlations between EBV estimated using...

  2. Bayesian mixture models for assessment of gene differential behaviour and prediction of pCR through the integration of copy number and gene expression data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Filippo Trentini

    Full Text Available We consider modeling jointly microarray RNA expression and DNA copy number data. We propose Bayesian mixture models that define latent Gaussian probit scores for the DNA and RNA, and integrate between the two platforms via a regression of the RNA probit scores on the DNA probit scores. Such a regression conveniently allows us to include additional sample specific covariates such as biological conditions and clinical outcomes. The two developed methods are aimed respectively to make inference on differential behaviour of genes in patients showing different subtypes of breast cancer and to predict the pathological complete response (pCR of patients borrowing strength across the genomic platforms. Posterior inference is carried out via MCMC simulations. We demonstrate the proposed methodology using a published data set consisting of 121 breast cancer patients.

  3. Development and Implementation of a Telecommuting Evaluation Framework, and Modeling the Executive Telecommuting Adoption Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vora, V. P.; Mahmassani, H. S.

    2002-02-01

    This work proposes and implements a comprehensive evaluation framework to document the telecommuter, organizational, and societal impacts of telecommuting through telecommuting programs. Evaluation processes and materials within the outlined framework are also proposed and implemented. As the first component of the evaluation process, the executive survey is administered within a public sector agency. The survey data is examined through exploratory analysis and is compared to a previous survey of private sector executives. The ordinal probit, dynamic probit, and dynamic generalized ordinal probit (DGOP) models of telecommuting adoption are calibrated to identify factors which significantly influence executive adoption preferences and to test the robustness of such factors. The public sector DGOP model of executive willingness to support telecommuting under different program scenarios is compared with an equivalent private sector DGOP model. Through the telecommuting program, a case study of telecommuting travel impacts is performed to further substantiate research.

  4. An Econometric Analysis of the Mexican Peso Crisis of 1994-1995 = 1994-1995 Meksika Pezo Krizi'nin Ekonometrik Bir Analizi

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mete FERİDUN

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available This article aims at identifying the factors behind the Mexican Peso Crisis of 1994-1995 through building a probit model incorporating 20 monthly macroeconomic, political, and financial sector variables from 1970:1 - 1995:1. As a result of the probit regressions, strong evidence emerges that the significant variables are political instability, foreign exchange reserves, domestic credit/GDP, lending and deposit rate spread, national savings, and foreign direct investment/GDP. Evidence further indicates that the signs of the variables are mostly in line with our expectations, with the exception of inflation, bank reserves/bank assets, export growth, and lending and deposit rate spread.

  5. 630 understanding farmers' response to climate variability in nigeria

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Osondu

    Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, and multinomial logit models. Farmers used multiple adaptation strategies; Crop Diversification (CD), Soil ... Increases in temperature, cloud ... and the effect of climate elements and their extreme ...

  6. Labour market transitions and job satisfaction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    G.E. Bijwaard (Govert); A. van Dijk (Bram); J. de Koning (Jaap)

    2003-01-01

    textabstractThe paper investigates the relationship between job satisfaction and labour market transitions. Using a multinomial logit model, a model is estimated on the basis of individual data in which transitions are explained from individual characteristics, job characteristics, dissatisfaction

  7. Longitudinal categorical data analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Sutradhar, Brajendra C

    2014-01-01

    This is the first book in longitudinal categorical data analysis with parametric correlation models developed based on dynamic relationships among repeated categorical responses. This book is a natural generalization of the longitudinal binary data analysis to the multinomial data setup with more than two categories. Thus, unlike the existing books on cross-sectional categorical data analysis using log linear models, this book uses multinomial probability models both in cross-sectional and longitudinal setups. A theoretical foundation is provided for the analysis of univariate multinomial responses, by developing models systematically for the cases with no covariates as well as categorical covariates, both in cross-sectional and longitudinal setups. In the longitudinal setup, both stationary and non-stationary covariates are considered. These models have also been extended to the bivariate multinomial setup along with suitable covariates. For the inferences, the book uses the generalized quasi-likelihood as w...

  8. The Smoothed Dirichlet Distribution: Understanding Cross-Entropy Ranking in Information Retrieval

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Nallapati, Ramesh

    2006-01-01

    .... Another related and interesting observation is that the naive Bayes model for text classification uses the same multinomial distribution to model documents but in contrast, employs document-log...

  9. Optimising import phytosanitary inspection

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Surkov, I.

    2007-01-01

    Keywords: quarantine pest, plant health policy, optimization, import phytosanitary inspection, ‘reduced checks’, optimal allocation of resources, multinomial logistic regression, the Netherlands World trade is a major vector of spread of quarantine plant pests. Border phytosanitary inspection

  10. Download this PDF file

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    USER

    2015-09-23

    Sep 23, 2015 ... diversification of income among the poultry farmers in the study area. Results ... Insurance Company (NAIC) was ... decades and different country case studies .... also reduce the total cost of operation. .... Multinomial logistic.

  11. Perceived fairness of the division of household labor: A comparative study in 29 countries

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jansen, L.; Weber, T.; Kraaykamp, G.L.M.; Verbakel, C.M.C.

    2016-01-01

    This study investigates the relationship between the division of household labor and individuals' perceived fairness concerning this division. We applied multilevel multinomial logistic regression to analyze data on both men and women across 29 countries using the International Social Survey

  12. West African Journal of Industrial and Academic Research - Vol 13 ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    On The Comparison of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Multinomial Logistic ... ICT-Based Framework for Improved Food Security in Nigeria · EMAIL FREE FULL ... towards HIV/AIDS Patients in Zambia: A Generalized Additive Mixed Model ...

  13. Bayesian networks with examples in R

    CERN Document Server

    Scutari, Marco

    2014-01-01

    Introduction. The Discrete Case: Multinomial Bayesian Networks. The Continuous Case: Gaussian Bayesian Networks. More Complex Cases. Theory and Algorithms for Bayesian Networks. Real-World Applications of Bayesian Networks. Appendices. Bibliography.

  14. Analysis of Preference Data Using Intermediate Test Statistic Abstract

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    PROF. O. E. OSUAGWU

    2013-06-01

    Jun 1, 2013 ... West African Journal of Industrial and Academic Research Vol.7 No. 1 June ... Keywords:-Preference data, Friedman statistic, multinomial test statistic, intermediate test statistic. ... new method and consequently a new statistic ...

  15. Determinants of agricultural micro-credit repayment-evidence from ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Agro-Science ... for the study while descriptive statistics and multinomial binary logit model were employed for data analyses. ... on long term funds (without prejudice to the existing revolving loan mechanism) such as the pension contributions, ...

  16. Probabilistic models for 2D active shape recognition using Fourier descriptors and mutual information

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Govender, N

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available information to improve the initial shape recognition results. We propose an initial system which performs shape recognition using the euclidean distances of Fourier descriptors. To improve upon these results we build multinomial and Gaussian probabilistic...

  17. Disability weights for infectious diseases in four European countries: comparison between countries and across respondent characteristics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maertens de Noordhout, Charline; Devleesschauwer, Brecht; Salomon, Joshua A; Turner, Heather; Cassini, Alessandro; Colzani, Edoardo; Speybroeck, Niko; Polinder, Suzanne; Kretzschmar, Mirjam E; Havelaar, Arie H; Haagsma, Juanita A

    2018-01-01

    Abstract Background In 2015, new disability weights (DWs) for infectious diseases were constructed based on data from four European countries. In this paper, we evaluated if country, age, sex, disease experience status, income and educational levels have an impact on these DWs. Methods We analyzed paired comparison responses of the European DW study by participants’ characteristics with separate probit regression models. To evaluate the effect of participants’ characteristics, we performed correlation analyses between countries and within country by respondent characteristics and constructed seven probit regression models, including a null model and six models containing participants’ characteristics. We compared these seven models using Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). Results According to AIC, the probit model including country as covariate was the best model. We found a lower correlation of the probit coefficients between countries and income levels (range rs: 0.97–0.99, P European countries. We recommend future researches studying the effect of other characteristics of respondents on health assessment. PMID:29020343

  18. The Effect of Overskilling Dynamics on Wages

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mavromaras, Kostas; Mahuteau, Stephane; Sloane, Peter; Wei, Zhang

    2013-01-01

    We use a random-effects dynamic probit model to estimate the effect of overskilling dynamics on wages. We find that overskilling mismatch is common and more likely among those who have been overskilled in the past. It is also highly persistent, in a manner that is inversely related to educational level. Yet, the wages of university graduates are…

  19. Determinants of farmers' perception of land degradation and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The study investigated farmers' perception of land degradation, and adoption of soil conservation practices using a two-stage decision making process. The data for the study were collected with the aid of structured questionnaire and analyzed with descriptive analysis and simultaneous probit model. The results show ...

  20. Site occupancy of brown-headed nuthatches varies with habitat restoration and range-limit context

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richard A. Stanton; Frank R. Thompson; Dylan C. Kesler

    2015-01-01

    Knowledge about species’ responses to habitat restoration can inform subsequent management and reintroduction planning. We used repeated call-response surveys to study brown-headed nuthatch (Sitta pusilla) patch occupancy at the current limits of its apparently expanding range in an area with active habitat restoration. We fit a probit occupancy...

  1. IN VITRO ANTIMALARIAL ACTIVITY OF THE EXTRACTS OF ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Administrator

    a significant inhibition in schizont maturation relative to control (P = 0.05). Ethanolic extract .... Animals were handled according to local rules and regulation of ... graph of percentage mortality converted to probit against log-dose of the extract ...

  2. Socio-economic impacts and determinants of parasitic weed infestation in rainfed rice systems of sub-Saharan Africa

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    N'cho, A.S.

    2014-01-01

    Keywords: rice; weed; weed management practices, adoption, impact, parasitic weeds; Rhamphicarpa fistulosa; Striga asiatica; Striga hermonthica, double hurdle model; multivariate probit, productivity, stochastic frontier analysis, data

  3. An Empirical Illustration of Positive Stigma towards Child Labor

    OpenAIRE

    Harry A Patrinos; Najeeb Shafiq

    2010-01-01

    This empirical note complements the qualitative and theoretical research on positive household stigma towards child labor. We use data from Guatemala and two instruments for measuring stigma: a child's indigenous background and household head's childhood work experience. We then adopt binomial probit regression methods to illustrate that positive stigma has a large effect on child labor practices, and a modest effect on school enrollment.

  4. Land degradation and adoption of soil conservation technologies ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The study investigates the causes of land degradation, and adoption of soil conservation practices using a two-stage decision making process. The data for the study were collected with the aid of structured questionnaire and analyzed with descriptive analysis, difference regression equation and simultaneous probit model.

  5. Factors influencing the stay-exit intention of small livestock farmers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Carter-Leal, Luis M.; Oude-Lansink, Alfons; Saatkamp, Helmut

    2018-01-01

    This study analyses the factors driving the stay-exit intention of small livestock farmers located in southern Chile. Technical, economic, and social characteristics from 212 farmers were included in this study. Through an empirical probit model we identified the variables that should be considered

  6. Explaining Preferences and Actual Involvement in Self-Employment: New Insights into the Role of Gender

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    I. Verheul (Ingrid); A.R. Thurik (Roy); I. Grilo (Isabel)

    2008-01-01

    textabstractThis paper investigates why women’s self-employment rates are consistently lower than those of men. It has three focal points. It discriminates between the preference for self-employment and actual involvement in self-employment using a two (probit) equation model. It makes a systematic

  7. Procyclicality and path dependence of sovereign credit ratings: The example of Europe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Freitag, L.

    2014-01-01

    This paper investigates empirically the behavior of Credit Rating Agencies (CRAs) when assessing sovereign solvency for European countries. Using Probit regressions I find that even after controlling for macroeconomic factors, CRAs take the business cycle into account. Also, there is a clear case of

  8. Why might forest companies certify? Results from a Canadian survey

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Takahashi, T.; Kooten, van G.C.; Vertinsky, I.

    2003-01-01

    During the late 1980s/early 1990s, voluntary forest certification emerged as a new market-based incentive mechanism and had an important influence on the way the world's forests are managed. To understand the mechanism of its diffusion, we employed a survey instrument and probit regression analysis

  9. Grades as Information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grant, Darren

    2007-01-01

    We determine how much observed student performance in microeconomics principles can be attributed, inferentially, to three kinds of student academic "productivity," the instructor, demographics, and unmeasurables. The empirical approach utilizes an ordered probit model that relates student performance in micro to grades in prior…

  10. Reasons for U.S. Producer Selection of a Goat Enterprise

    OpenAIRE

    Dunn, Brittany; Nyaupane, Narayan; Gillispie, Jeffrey; McMillan, Kenneth

    2014-01-01

    This paper addresses 14 possible reasons why meat goat producers selected to engage in meat goat production, with results having implications for research, extension, and teaching efforts. A survey of meat goat producers was conducted. Reasons for entering meat goat production were assessed and analyzed using ordered probit models.

  11. A comparison between Daphnia pulex and Hydra vulgaris as ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2017-04-02

    Apr 2, 2017 ... dependence thereon, has led not only to valuable products ... effects, estimating environmental risk based on measured ... The LC50-values were statistically determined using the EPA Probit Analysis Model ..... and organic contaminants. ..... green algae on the response of Hydra viridissima (Pallas 1776).

  12. households' ability and willingness to pay for the provision of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2017-10-02

    Oct 2, 2017 ... Using probit regression, it is observed that gender, educational status and ... The current study seeks to bridge this gap by examining the ... section two was on willingness and ability to pay for the provision of toilet facilities in ... The reason being that, the CVM method is more superior to other valuation.

  13. Determinants of firms' investment behaviour : a multilevel approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Farla, K.

    2013-01-01

    This paper investigates micro and macro determinants of firms' investment behaviour using firm data from 101 developing and emerging economies. A substantial number of firms in our sample does not invest in fixed capital or invests little relative to sales revenue. Using a multilevel probit model we

  14. Ethnic entrepreneurship and internationalisation in East Africa

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Leendert de Bell; Hein Roelfsema; Khalidi Swabiri

    Using the World Bank Enterprise Surveys panel data for the East African Community, this paper analyses the influence of ethnic origin of entrepreneurs on internationalisation and firm performance. Using traditional probit and OLS estimation techniques in combination with matching strategies to

  15. The British American Tobacco out growers scheme: Determinants of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The study analyzed the operation and performance of Tobacco Out grower Scheme in Oyo State, Nigeria. The data for the analysis came from a random sample survey of the area of study. The treatment effect model was adopted in analyzing the data. Evidence from the probit analysis indicates that membership of the ...

  16. Econometric analyses of microfinance credit group formation, contractual risks and welfare impacts in Northern Ethiopia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Berhane Tesfay, G.

    2009-01-01

    Key words
    Microfinance, joint liability, contractual risk, group formation, risk-matching, impact evaluation, Panel data econometrics, dynamic panel probit, trend models, fixed-effects, composite counterfactuals, propensity score matching, farm households, Ethiopia.

    Lack of

  17. "You Pay Your Share, We'll Pay Our Share": The College Cost Burden and the Role of Race, Income, and College Assets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elliott, William; Friedline, Terri

    2013-01-01

    Changes in financial aid policies raise questions about students being asked to pay too much for college and whether parents' college savings for their children helps reduce the burden on students to pay for college. Using trivariate probit analysis with predicted probabilities, in this exploratory study we find recent changes in the financial aid…

  18. The Role of Education Pathways in the Relationship between Job Mismatch, Wages and Job Satisfaction: A Panel Estimation Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mavromaras, Kostas; Sloane, Peter; Wei, Zhang

    2012-01-01

    This paper examines the outcome of over-skilling and over-education on wages and job satisfaction of full-time employees in Australia between 2001 and 2008. We employ a random effects probit model with Mundlak corrections. We find differences by type of mismatch, education pathway, and gender. We categorise reported mismatches as genuine…

  19. Experimental and statistical study on fracture boundary of non-irradiated Zircaloy-4 cladding tube under LOCA conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Narukawa, Takafumi; Yamaguchi, Akira; Jang, Sunghyon; Amaya, Masaki

    2018-02-01

    For estimating fracture probability of fuel cladding tube under loss-of-coolant accident conditions of light-water-reactors, laboratory-scale integral thermal shock tests were conducted on non-irradiated Zircaloy-4 cladding tube specimens. Then, the obtained binary data with respect to fracture or non-fracture of the cladding tube specimen were analyzed statistically. A method to obtain the fracture probability curve as a function of equivalent cladding reacted (ECR) was proposed using Bayesian inference for generalized linear models: probit, logit, and log-probit models. Then, model selection was performed in terms of physical characteristics and information criteria, a widely applicable information criterion and a widely applicable Bayesian information criterion. As a result, it was clarified that the log-probit model was the best among the three models to estimate the fracture probability in terms of the degree of prediction accuracy for both next data to be obtained and the true model. Using the log-probit model, it was shown that 20% ECR corresponded to a 5% probability level with a 95% confidence of fracture of the cladding tube specimens.

  20. A Bayesian Multi-Level Factor Analytic Model of Consumer Price Sensitivities across Categories

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duvvuri, Sri Devi; Gruca, Thomas S.

    2010-01-01

    Identifying price sensitive consumers is an important problem in marketing. We develop a Bayesian multi-level factor analytic model of the covariation among household-level price sensitivities across product categories that are substitutes. Based on a multivariate probit model of category incidence, this framework also allows the researcher to…

  1. Credit Default Risk and its Determinants of Microfinance Industry in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    user

    limitations prevailed in the selected 6 MFIs in Ethiopia schemed by determining the ... the probit model show that education, income, loan supervision, suitability of repayment ..... of Ethiopia as Large, Medium, and Small MFIs. ..... /sigma. 0.5177089. 0.0467682. *significant at 1%. ***significant at 10% .... businesses default.

  2. A multivariate analysis of factors affecting adoption of improved ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper analyzes the synergies/tradeoffs involved in the adoption of improved varieties of multiple crops in the mixed crop-livestock production systems of the highlands of Ethiopia A multivariate probit (MVP) model involving a system of four equations for the adoption decision of improved varieties of barley, potatoes, ...

  3. Incidence and Severity of Poverty among Oyan Lake Host ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    It is recommended that development oriented policies aimed at discouraging early marriages, polygamy, having improved family planning, housing scheme, education and access to loans should be given consideration for these communities. Keywords: Host communities, Poverty, Household, Multivariate Probit Model, ...

  4. Firm-Level Determinants of Exporting Behaviour: Evidence from ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper uses firm-level panel data to investigate the exporting behaviour of the Kenyan manufacturing firms. Using probit and tobit regression models, the results obtained show that factors determining the decision to export are different from those affecting the share exported. Likewise, factors determining exporting ...

  5. Mnengi et al., Afr J Tradit Complement Altern Med. (2014) 11(4):62 ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    cadewumi

    Mnengi et al., Afr J Tradit Complement Altern Med. (2014) 11(4):62-65 ... A drop of dry yeast suspension was added as food to each vial. Probit analysis ... of five while some children are treated with malaria medications in biomedical facilities, as the World Health Organization recommends, others obtain home-care or ...

  6. Getting stuck, falling behind or moving forward

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Walelign, Solomon Zena

    2017-01-01

    Research on household livelihood dynamics is central to rural poverty reduction. In this paper, we adopt a three-wave panel dataset to explore the persistence of and transitions in household livelihoods in three districts of Nepal using duration and dynamic probit models. The results demonstrate ...

  7. Twisting the Dollar? On the Consistency of Short-Run and Long-Run Exchange Rate Expectations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stadtmann, Georg; Rülke, Jan; Frenkel, Michael

    2012-01-01

    ’ in the dollar/euro expectation formation process, i.e. market participants expect bandwagon effects in the short run, while they have stabilizing expectations in their long-run forecasts. Applying a panel probit analysis we find that this twisting behavior is more likely to occur in periods of excess exchange...

  8. Exploring National Concerted Practices in an Open Small Economy : What Does the Change in the Competition Law in the Netherlands Reveal?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ozbugday, F.C.

    2011-01-01

    The present study examines the impact of several industry characteristics on the propensity to collude using a dataset on the existence of collusion across Dutch industries during the late 1990s and early 2000s. The results of the Probit model with sample selection indicate that our sample of Dutch

  9. The Impact of School Socioeconomic Status on Student-Generated Teacher Ratings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agnew, Steve

    2011-01-01

    This paper uses ordinary least squares, logit and probit regressions, along with chi-square analysis applied to nationwide data from the New Zealand ratemyteacher website to establish if there is any correlation between student ratings of their teachers and the socioeconomic status of the school the students attend. The results show that students…

  10. Political instability and country risk : new evidence

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    DeHaan, J; Siermann, CLJ; VanLubek, E

    1997-01-01

    This note presents new estimates of a probit model for the debt rescheduling, using a sample of 65 countries over the period 1984-93. Apart from economic variables, a whole range of indicators for political instability are included in the model as explanatory variables. It turns out, that none is

  11. Balance in competition in Dutch soccer

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koning, Ruud H.

    2000-01-01

    In this paper, we estimate an ordered probit model for soccer results in The Netherlands. The result of a game is assumed to be determined by home advantage and quality differences of the opposing teams. The parameters of the model are used to assess whether competitive balance in Dutch professional

  12. ADOPTION OF IMPROVED TECHNOLOGY IN ETHIOPIA By

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Etsub [ ETSUB

    forms often used are the probit (the standard cumulative distribution function) and ... are techniques for estimating the probability of an event (such as adoption) that can .... credit, availability of labour, etc., are expected to influence the adoption behaviour ..... and have the opportunity to adjust productive resources over time.

  13. An alternate property tax program requiring a forest management plan and scheduled harvesting

    Science.gov (United States)

    D.F. Dennis; P.E. Sendak

    1991-01-01

    Vermont's Use Value Appraisal property tax program, designed to address problems such as tax inequity and forced development caused by taxing agricultural and forest land based on speculative values, requires a forest management plan and scheduled harvests. A probit analysis of enrollment provides evidence of the program's success in attracting large parcels...

  14. Gender differences, HIV risk perception and condom use

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lammers, J.; van Wijnbergen, S.; Willebrands, D.

    This paper analyzes how different types of HIV-knowledge influence condom use across the sexes. The empirical work is based on a household survey conducted among 1,979 households of a representative group of market persons in Lagos in 2008. Last time condom use is analyzed based on a Probit model

  15. 40 CFR 799.9110 - TSCA acute oral toxicity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... administered in fractions, it may be necessary to provide the animals with food and water, depending on the... posture, reactivity to handling or sensory stimuli, altered strength, and stereotypies or bizarre behavior... median effective dose and Chapter 4—Maximum likelihood estimation, Probit Analysis, 3rd ed. Cambridge...

  16. Video games playing: A substitute for cultural consumptions?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Borowiecki, Karol Jan; Prieto-Rodriguez, Juan

    2015-01-01

    This article provides an applied investigation of video game usage. Using data for Spain, we estimate zero-inflated ordered probit models to control for an excess of zeros in our ordinal dependent variable. We find that the probability of game playing increases with the consumption of other...

  17. Education choices in Ethiopia: what determines whether poor households send their children to school?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Woldehanna, T.; Mekonnen, A.; Jones, N.

    2008-01-01

    The paper uses data from a 2002 survey of 1000 rural and urban households with eight-year old children sampled from food insecure communities in Tigray, Amhara, Oromia, SNNP and Addis Ababa Regional States. Using a probit regression model, we investigated external factors associated with child

  18. Factors leading to inflation targeting : The impact of adoption

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Samarina, Anna; Sturm, Jan-Egbert

    2013-01-01

    This paper examines how the analysis of inflation targeting (IT) adoption is affected by allowing for a structural change after adoption, using panel probit models for 60 countries over the period 1985-2008. Our findings suggest that there is a structural change after IT adoption. Including the

  19. Factors leading to inflation targeting - the impact of adoption

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Samarina, Anna; Sturm, Jan-Egbert

    2013-01-01

    This paper examines how the analysis of inflation targeting (IT) adoption is affected by the choice of the analyzed period. We test whether country characteristics influence the decision to apply IT differently before and after its adoption, using panel probit models for 60 countries over the period

  20. Unpaid overtime in the Netherlands : forward- or backward-looking incentives?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van der Meer, Peter H.; Wielers, Rudi

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to test forward-looking incentives against backward-looking incentives. Design/methodology/approach ? Wage growth model to estimate forward-looking effects of unpaid overtime and a probit model of participation in unpaid overtime controlling for excessive pay to estimate

  1. 'Whatever She May Study, She Can't Escape from Washing Dishes': Gender Inequity in Secondary Education--Evidence from a Longitudinal Study in India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Renu; Mukherjee, Protap

    2018-01-01

    Using unique panel data from Young Lives study conducted in undivided Andhra Pradesh, India, this mixed-method paper analyses gender differentials in completion of secondary education. Results show biased secondary school completion rates in favor of boys. Probit regression results highlight certain variables such as mothers' education, wealth,…

  2. Scientific Productivity and Academic Promotion: A Study on French and Italian Physicists. NBER Working Paper No. 16341

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lissoni, Francesco; Mairesse, Jacques; Montobbio, Fabio; Pezzoni, Michele

    2010-01-01

    The paper examines the determinants of scientific productivity (number of articles and journals' impact factor) for a panel of about 3600 French and Italian academic physicists active in 2004-05. Endogeneity problems concerning promotion and productivity are addressed by specifying a generalized Tobit model, in which a selection probit equation…

  3. Competencies for Young European Higher Education Graduates: Labor Market Mismatches and Their Payoffs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia-Aracil, Adela; Van der Velden, Rolf

    2008-01-01

    Labor market rewards based on competencies are analyzed using a sample of young European higher education (HE) graduates. Estimates of monetary rewards are obtained from conventional earnings regressions, while estimates total rewards are based on job satisfaction and derived through ordered probit regressions. Results for income show that jobs…

  4. Religious Background and Educational Attainment: The Effects of Buddhism, Islam, and Judaism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sander, William

    2010-01-01

    The effects of Buddhism, Islam, and Judaism on educational attainment in the United States are examined. OLS estimates of educational attainment and Probit estimates of college attainment are undertaken. It is shown that Islam and Judaism have similar positive effects on attainment relative to Protestants and Catholics. The effect of Buddhism is…

  5. Bayes factor covariance testing in item response models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fox, J.P.; Mulder, J.; Sinharay, Sandip

    2017-01-01

    Two marginal one-parameter item response theory models are introduced, by integrating out the latent variable or random item parameter. It is shown that both marginal response models are multivariate (probit) models with a compound symmetry covariance structure. Several common hypotheses concerning

  6. Bayes Factor Covariance Testing in Item Response Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fox, Jean-Paul; Mulder, Joris; Sinharay, Sandip

    2017-01-01

    Two marginal one-parameter item response theory models are introduced, by integrating out the latent variable or random item parameter. It is shown that both marginal response models are multivariate (probit) models with a compound symmetry covariance structure. Several common hypotheses concerning

  7. Weather shocks and cropland decisions in rural Mozambique

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salazar Espinoza, César Antonio; Jones, Edward Samuel; Tarp, Finn

    2015-01-01

    to examine the effect of weather shocks on cropland decisions. We account for the bounded nature of land shares and estimate a Pooled Fractional Probit model for panel data. Our results show that crop choice is sensitive to past weather shocks. Farmers shift land use away from cash and permanent crops one...

  8. Marketing system analysis of vegetables and fruits in Amhara ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This study attempted to analyze the different aspects of marketing system of vegetable and fruit in Raya Kobo and Harbu woredas, Amhara regional state using different indicators. Probit estimation for determinant of participation probability in vegetable and fruit production and OLS estimation technique were also applied for ...

  9. Job satisfaction across Europe: differences between and within regions

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Mysíková, Martina; Večerník, Jiří

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 25, č. 4 (2013), s. 539-556 ISSN 1463-1377 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GAP404/11/1521 Institutional support: RVO:68378025 Keywords : job aspects * job satisfaction * ordered probit Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 0.393, year: 2013 http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/14631377.2013.844934

  10. Child Labour and Child Schooling in Rural Ethiopia: Nature and Trade-Off

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haile, Getinet; Haile, Beliyou

    2012-01-01

    We examine work participation and schooling for children aged 7-15 using survey data from rural Ethiopia. Bivariate probit and age-adjusted educational attainment equations have been estimated. Male children are found to be more likely to attend school than their female counterparts. "Specialization" in child labour is also found, with…

  11. The effect of patient satisfaction with pharmacist consultation on medication adherence: an instrumental variable approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gu NY

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available There are limited studies on quantifying the impact of patient satisfaction with pharmacist consultation on patient medication adherence. Objectives: The objective of this study is to evaluate the effect of patient satisfaction with pharmacist consultation services on medication adherence in a large managed care organization. Methods: We analyzed data from a patient satisfaction survey of 6,916 patients who had used pharmacist consultation services in Kaiser Permanente Southern California from 1993 to 1996. We compared treating patient satisfaction as exogenous, in a single-equation probit model, with a bivariate probit model where patient satisfaction was treated as endogenous. Different sets of instrumental variables were employed, including measures of patients' emotional well-being and patients' propensity to fill their prescriptions at a non-Kaiser Permanente (KP pharmacy. The Smith-Blundell test was used to test whether patient satisfaction was endogenous. Over-identification tests were used to test the validity of the instrumental variables. The Staiger-Stock weak instrument test was used to evaluate the explanatory power of the instrumental variables. Results: All tests indicated that the instrumental variables method was valid and the instrumental variables used have significant explanatory power. The single equation probit model indicated that the effect of patient satisfaction with pharmacist consultation was significant (p<0.010. However, the bivariate probit models revealed that the marginal effect of pharmacist consultation on medication adherence was significantly greater than the single equation probit. The effect increased from 7% to 30% (p<0.010 after controlling for endogeneity bias. Conclusion: After appropriate adjustment for endogeneity bias, patients satisfied with their pharmacy services are substantially more likely to adhere to their medication. The results have important policy implications given the increasing focus

  12. Dose-response regressions for algal growth and similar continuous endpoints: Calculation of effective concentrations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Erik R.; Kusk, Kresten Ole; Nyholm, Niels

    2009-01-01

    We derive equations for the effective concentration giving 10% inhibition (EC10) with 95% confidence limits for probit (log-normal), Weibull, and logistic dose -responsemodels on the basis of experimentally derived median effective concentrations (EC50s) and the curve slope at the central point (50......% inhibition). For illustration, data from closed, freshwater algal assays are analyzed using the green alga Pseudokirchneriella subcapitata with growth rate as the response parameter. Dose-response regressions for four test chemicals (tetraethylammonium bromide, musculamine, benzonitrile, and 4...... regression program with variance weighting and proper inverse estimation. The Weibull model provides the best fit to the data for all four chemicals. Predicted EC10s (95% confidence limits) from our derived equations are quite accurate; for example, with 4-4-(trifluoromethyl)phenoxy-phenol and the probit...

  13. Maternal union instability and childhood mortality risk in the Global South, 2010-14.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeRose, Laurie F; Salazar-Arango, Andrés; Corcuera García, Paúl; Gas-Aixendri, Montserrat; Rivera, Reynaldo

    2017-07-01

    Efforts to improve child survival in lower-income countries typically focus on fundamental factors such as economic resources and infrastructure provision, even though research from post-industrial countries confirms that family instability has important health consequences. We tested the association between maternal union instability and children's mortality risk in Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean, and Asia using children's actual experience of mortality (discrete-time probit hazard models) as well as their experience of untreated morbidity (probit regression). Children of divorced/separated mothers experience compromised survival chances, but children of mothers who have never been in a union generally do not. Among children of partnered women, those whose mothers have experienced prior union transitions have a higher mortality risk. Targeting children of mothers who have experienced union instability-regardless of current union status-may augment ongoing efforts to reduce childhood mortality, especially in Africa and Latin America where union transitions are common.

  14. Global innovation networks and university-firm interactions: an exploratory survey analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gustavo Britto

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available The literature on Global Innovation Networks has contributed to identify changes in the innovation activities of multinational corporations. Although university-firm interactions are seen as an important factor for the emergence of GINs, their role has received limited attention. This paper aims to fill this gap in two ways. First, it carries out an exploratory analysis of an original survey dataset, of firms in three industrial sectors from nine developed and developing countries. Second, the paper analyses whether the role of universities in global innovation networks is related to national systems of innovation with varying degrees of maturity. Multiple correspondence analysis and a Probit model are used to establish the relevance of key factors in driving GINs. The results identify distinctive profiles constructed mainly according to firm characteristics, but reflecting country specific patterns of association. The Probit model confirms that internationalization processes and the existence of local interactions substantially increase the probability of interactions with international institutions.

  15. CSR and Company's Stock Price. A Comparative Evidence from Bucharest Stock Exchange

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adina Dornean

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims at analysing the relationship between Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR and stock price for the companies listed on Bucharest Stock Exchange (BSE in 2015, comparing with the results obtained for 2014. This study investigates the differences in the market stock price (and other market variables, such as dividends and stock return of companies that show CSR compared with those that do not. For this purpose we will use three statistical techniques: discriminant analysis, probit analysis model and logistic regression. There is no significant difference between the prediction ability of the models, in the context in which probit model and logistic regression have and average correct classification of 70.29%, while discriminant analysis records 71.62%. Our analysis highlighted that stock return has a significant impact on CSR activities of a company. Moreover, all discriminants have a positive impact on CSR.

  16. Dealing with selection bias in educational transition models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holm, Anders; Jæger, Mads Meier

    2011-01-01

    This paper proposes the bivariate probit selection model (BPSM) as an alternative to the traditional Mare model for analyzing educational transitions. The BPSM accounts for selection on unobserved variables by allowing for unobserved variables which affect the probability of making educational tr...... account for selection on unobserved variables and high-quality data are both required in order to estimate credible educational transition models.......This paper proposes the bivariate probit selection model (BPSM) as an alternative to the traditional Mare model for analyzing educational transitions. The BPSM accounts for selection on unobserved variables by allowing for unobserved variables which affect the probability of making educational...... transitions to be correlated across transitions. We use simulated and real data to illustrate how the BPSM improves on the traditional Mare model in terms of correcting for selection bias and providing credible estimates of the effect of family background on educational success. We conclude that models which...

  17. Endogenous Women's Autonomy and the Use of Reproductive Health Services: Empirical Evidence from Tajikistan

    OpenAIRE

    Yusuke Kamiya

    2010-01-01

    Though gender equity is widely considered to be a key to improving maternal health in developing countries, little empirical evidence has been presented to support this claim. This paper investigates whether or not and how female autonomy within the household affects women's use of reproductive health care in Tajikistan, where the situation of maternal health and gender equity is worse compared with neighbouring countries. Estimation is performed using bivariate probit models in which woman's...

  18. Assessment of professional risk caused by heating microclimate in the process of un-derground mining

    OpenAIRE

    М. Л. Рудаков; И. С. Степанов

    2017-01-01

    The paper reviews the possibility to apply probit-function to assess professional risks of underground mining under conditions of heating microclimate. Operations under conditions of heating microclimate, whose parameters exceed threshold criteria, can lead to dehydration, fainting and heat stroke for mine workers. Basing on the results of medico-biological research on the effects of microclimate on human body, the authors have assessed probabilistic nature of excessive heat accumulation depe...

  19. Commuting patterns of Czech households exposed to flood risk from the Bečva river

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Vikhrov, Dmytro; Stojanov, Robert; Duží, Barbora; Juřička, D.

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 13, č. 1 (2014), s. 58-72 ISSN 1747-7891 R&D Projects: GA MŠk ED1.1.00/02.0073; GA MŠk EE2.4.31.0056; GA MŠk LD13032 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : commuting * income gap * flood risk * selection * probit Subject RIV: AO - Sociology, Demography Impact factor: 0.868, year: 2014

  20. Crime and Young Men: The Role of Arrest, Criminal Experience, and Heterogeneity

    OpenAIRE

    Susumu Imai; Hajime Katayama; Kala Krishna

    2006-01-01

    Using National Youth Survey (NYS) data, we examine the relationship of current criminal activity and past arrests using an ordered probit model with unobserved heterogeneity. Past arrests raise current criminal activity only for the non-criminal type, while past criminal experience raises current criminal activity for both types. Also, the age crime profile peaks at age 18 for non-criminal type individuals, but for criminal type individuals, it continues to rise with age. Past research indica...

  1. Family Friendly Policies and Performance-Based Pay in Companies' Employment Management in Japan : Its Effect on Work Life Balance Satisfaction and Willingness to Job continuity

    OpenAIRE

    菅原, 佑香

    2012-01-01

    The Purpose of this paper is to examine the influence of firm's family friendly policies and also the recent introduction of as performance based wage system on employee's motivation. The motivation was measured in terms of work life balance satisfaction and willingness to continuity to work at the same workplace. To analyze these effects, I used probit model and ordinary least squares (OLS), and two step least squares. The main findings is as follows (1) Introduction of various family friend...

  2. Culture, Privacy Conception and Privacy Concern: Evidence from Europe before PRISM

    OpenAIRE

    Omrani, Nessrine; Soulié, Nicolas

    2017-01-01

    This article analyses individuals’ online privacy concerns between cultural country groups. We use a dataset of more than 14 000 Internet users collected by the European Union in 2010 in 26 EU countries. We use a probit model to examine the variables associated with the probability of being concerned about privacy, in order to draw policy and regulatory implications. The results show that women and poor people are more concerned than their counterparts. People who often use Internet are not p...

  3. Moment-to-Moment Optimal Branding in TV Commercials: Preventing Avoidance by Pulsing

    OpenAIRE

    Thales S. Teixeira; Michel Wedel; Rik Pieters

    2010-01-01

    We develop a conceptual framework about the impact that branding activity (the audiovisual representation of brands) and consumers' focused versus dispersed attention have on consumer moment-to-moment avoidance decisions during television advertising. We formalize this framework in a dynamic probit model and estimate it with Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. Data on avoidance through zapping, along with eye tracking on 31 commercials for nearly 2,000 participants, are used to calibrate the mo...

  4. Socioeconomic Disparities in Breast Cancer Screening in Hawaii

    OpenAIRE

    Timothy Halliday, PhD; Deborah A. Taira, ScD; James Davis, PhD; Henry Chan

    2007-01-01

    Introduction Despite evidence that breast cancer screening reduces morbidity and mortality, many women do not obtain mammograms. Our objective was to analyze the relationship between income and mammography screening for members enrolled in a large health plan in Hawaii. Methods We analyzed claims data for women (N = 46,328) aged 50 to 70 years during 2003 and 2004. We used parametric and nonparametric regression techniques. We used probit estimation to conduct multivariate analysis. Results A...

  5. Determinants of flexible work arrangements

    OpenAIRE

    Sarbu, Miruna

    2014-01-01

    Flexible work arrangements such as allowing employees to work at home are used in firms, especially since information and communication technologies have become so widespread. Using individual-level data from 10,884 German employees, this paper analyses the determinants of working at home as a form of flexible work arrangements. The analysis is based on descriptive analyses and a discrete choice model using a probit estimation approach. The results reveal that men have a higher...

  6. Traffic accidents: an econometric investigation

    OpenAIRE

    Tito Moreira; Adolfo Sachsida; Loureiro Paulo

    2004-01-01

    Based on a sample of drivers in Brasilia's streets, this article investigates whether distraction explains traffic accidents. A probit model is estimated to determine the predictive power of several variables on traffic accidents. The main conclusion drawn from this study is that the proxies used to measure distraction, such as the use of cell phones and cigarette smoking in a moving vehicle, are significant factors in determining traffic accidents.

  7. What influence Customer Patronage of Insurance Policies: An Empirical Assessment of Socio-Economic and Demographic Determinants of Insurance Patronage in Ghana

    OpenAIRE

    Fofie, Gloria A.

    2016-01-01

    The study attempts to explore and assess the social, economic and demographic factors that are likely to influence the patronage of insurance in Ghana. Employing a cross-sectional and convenient sampling method, 200 respondents were selected to answer semi-structured questionnaires. Using a Probit econometric regression model for analysis, the results indicate these socio-economic and demographic determinants are positively and significantly related to insurance demand, except that of religio...

  8. Total, Direct, and Indirect Effects in Logit Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karlson, Kristian Bernt; Holm, Anders; Breen, Richard

    It has long been believed that the decomposition of the total effect of one variable on another into direct and indirect effects, while feasible in linear models, is not possible in non-linear probability models such as the logit and probit. In this paper we present a new and simple method...... average partial effects, as defined by Wooldridge (2002). We present the method graphically and illustrate it using the National Educational Longitudinal Study of 1988...

  9. The mental health cost of corruption: evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa

    OpenAIRE

    Gillanders, Robert

    2011-01-01

    This paper examines the effect that experiencing corruption has on an individual’s mental health using microeconomic data from the Afrobarometer surveys. The results show a statistically significant and economically meaningful effect in both binary and ordered probit models using both an experience of corruption index and a simple binary variable. Having to pay a bribe to obtain documents and permits, to avoid problems with the police or to access medical care emerge as the arenas in which co...

  10. 管理職の仕事満足度の男女間差異に関する実証研究

    OpenAIRE

    大薗, 陽子

    2013-01-01

    This study examines differences in job satisfaction among Japanese male and female managers. We used the data set of “FY2004 General Survey on Corporate Strategies and Human Resource Management” conducted by The Japan Institute for Labour Policy and Training. In addition, we employed the Ordered Probit estimation model. The analysis of five parameters related to job satisfaction yielded the following results. Female managers experienced significantly higher job satisfaction than male managers...

  11. THE DETERMINANTS OF INNOVATION IN THE ITALIAN FOOD INDUSTRY: THE ROLE OF R&D NETWORKING

    OpenAIRE

    D'Alessio, Massimiliano; Maietta, Ornella Wanda

    2008-01-01

    Objective of the paper is to verify which are the determinants of innovations in the Italian food industry and which role R&D networking, through the cooperative nature of firm, plays among these determinants. The data used are the 9th (2001-2003) wave of Capitalia surveys based on a representative sample of manufacturing firms with information on firm characteristics, employee education levels, innovation and R&D investments. The approach is a bivariate probit analysis where the two dependen...

  12. I Can't Get No Satisfaction: The Power of Perceived Differences in Employee Retention and Turnover

    OpenAIRE

    Gevrek, Deniz; Spencer, Marilyn; Hudgins, David; Chambers, Valrie

    2017-01-01

    This study explores the role of salary raises and the perception of employees of these salary raises on employees' intended retention and turnover. By using a unique survey data set from an American university, this study investigates a novel hypothesis that faculty perceptions of salary raises, relative to their perceptions of other faculty members' assessments of the raises, influences their labor supply. Using both Ordered Probit and OLS modelling frameworks, we focus on the impact of sala...

  13. Modelling the monetary policy reaction function of the Colombian Central Bank

    OpenAIRE

    Otero, Jesus; Ramírez, Manuel

    2008-01-01

    This paper proposes a simple Ordered Probit model to analyse the monetary policy reaction function of the Colombian Central Bank. There is evidence that the reaction function is asymmetric, in the sense that the Bank increases the Bank rate when the gap between observed inflation and the inflation target (lagged once) is positive, but it does not reduce the Bank rate when the gap is negative. This behaviour suggests that the Bank is more interested in fulfilling the announced inflation target...

  14. f Mo fingerl ortality ings in ch asses n varyi hanges ssment ing sal s ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    sunny

    bioma lead. (Bhup. 410805622606 ccess under the ournal of E reochro and inf oxicity. - Allah Kaf of Lagos, P.M. 10 November, 2 d protection nce of salinit nce and rela nst O. niloti t chemical. C ls of 2, 12, 1 by Probit. Mo. 35 ppt within there was a s imilarly, the significance o confer pr ence on t icochemical ls and pest.

  15. Changes in Math Prerequisites and Student Performance in Business Statistics: Do Math Prerequisites Really Matter?

    OpenAIRE

    Jeffrey J. Green; Courtenay C. Stone; Abera Zegeye; Thomas A. Charles

    2007-01-01

    We use a binary probit model to assess the impact of several changes in math prerequisites on student performance in an undergraduate business statistics course. While the initial prerequisites did not necessarily provide students with the necessary math skills, our study, the first to examine the effect of math prerequisite changes, shows that these changes were deleterious to student performance. Our results helped convince the College of Business to change the math prerequisite again begin...

  16. Gender Wage Gap: Discrimination or Different Preferences of Men and Women? A Case Study of Ostrava, Czech Republic

    OpenAIRE

    Zuzana Machová; Lenka Filipová

    2013-01-01

    This paper was written as a part of a research project studying problem of wage determinant measuring and wage discrimination considering different wage requirements of men and women. The wage determinants and gender wage discrimination are analyzed using a probit model. The whole analysis is methodologically based on Mincer’s Wage Regression and Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition of gender wage gap. The wage variables include, aside from standard personal characteristics, dummies for institution...

  17. Interdependencies of Health, Education & Poverty in Egypt, Morocco and Turkey Using Demographic and Health Survey

    OpenAIRE

    Driouchi, Ahmed; Baijou, Ahmad

    2009-01-01

    The interdependencies of health, education and poverty that are common knowledge to individuals are also present at the aggregate levels of countries and internationally. The assessment of these interdependencies is the central task of this research but based on the Demographic Health Surveys (DHS) of Egypt, Morocco and Turkey. The results attained through dependency tests and probit models, confirm the existence of major interdependencies at the levels of households. These findings support t...

  18. Proceedings of the Annual Chemical Defense Bioscience Review (4th) Held at Aberdeen Proving Ground, Maryland on 30 May-1 June 1984

    Science.gov (United States)

    1984-06-01

    318-324, 1954. .3 11. Finney, D.J., Probit Analysis, 3rd Ed., Cambridge University Press, 1971. 12. Thompson, W.R. and C.S. Weil, Biometrics 8, 51-58...824, 1980. 531 .4 Table 1. Abbreviations and Ligand Charges Abbreviation Name H 2-Proto2 Protoporphyr in-IX H 2-flemato 2 - Hemat opo rphyr in-IX -DPS4

  19. The Effects of Biopesticide Azadirachtin on the Fifth Instar Galleria mellonella L. (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae) Larval Integument

    OpenAIRE

    Ünsal, Sadettin; Güner, Emine

    2016-01-01

    The chitin synthesis inhibitory (CSI) effects of azadirachtin on the fifth instar Galleria mellonella L. larval integument were investigated. Using probit analysis, the LC95 value for G. mellonella larvae was detected as 3991 ppm. In this study, 3991 ppm and the reduced 1995, 997, and 498 ppm concentrations were used. It was observed that azadirachtin had different effects on the integument when the larvae were fed semi-synthetic feed containing 498, 997, 1995, or 3991 ppm azadirachtin. Morph...

  20. The Diffusion of Military Dictatorships

    OpenAIRE

    Raul Caruso; Ilaria Petrarca; Roberto Ricciuti

    2012-01-01

    We show the existence of a diffusion process of military dictatorships in Sub-Saharan Africa from 1972 through 2007, using panel data probit estimation and a Markov chain transition model. This process is shortly-lived, since we observe an overall trend that reduces the number of military regimes. We also find that Manufacturing share of GDP, Primary share of GDP positively affect the probability of military dictatorship, and Openness to trade, whereas the British colonial origin are negative...

  1. Effects of supplementary private health insurance on physician visits in Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, Sungwook; You, Chang Hoon; Kwon, Young Dae; Oh, Eun-Hwan

    2009-12-01

    The coverage of social health insurance has remained limited, despite it being compulsory in Korea. Accordingly, Koreans have come to rely upon supplementary private health insurance (PHI) to cover their medical costs. We examined the effects of supplementary PHI on physician visits in Korea. This study used individual data from 11,043 respondents who participated in the Korean Labor and Income Panel Survey in 2001. We conducted a single probit model to identify the relationship between PHI and physician visits, with adjustment for the following covariates: demographic characteristics, socioeconomic status, health status, and health-related behavior. Finally, we performed a bivariate probit model to examine the true effect of PHI on physician visits, with adjustment for the above covariates plus unobservable covariates that might affect not only physician visit, but also the purchase of PHI. We found that about 38% of all respondents had one or more private health plans. Forty-five percent of all respondents visited one or more physicians, and 49% of those who were privately insured had physician visits compared with 42% of the uninsured. The single probit model showed that those with PHI were about 14 percentage points more likely to visit physicians than those who do not have PHI. However, this distinction disappears in the bivariate probit model. This result might have been a consequence of the nature of private health plans in Korea. Private insurance companies pay a fixed amount directly to their enrollees in case of illness/injury, and the individuals are responsible subsequently for purchasing their own healthcare services. This study demonstrated the potential of Korean PHI to address the problem of moral hazard. These results serve as a reference for policy makers when considering how to finance healthcare services, as well as to contain healthcare expenditure.

  2. Parental Divorce and Generalized Trust

    OpenAIRE

    Viitanen, Tarja

    2011-01-01

    This paper examines the effect of parental divorce during childhood on generalized trust later on in life using Australian HILDA panel data. The dependent variable is composed of answers to the statement: “Generally speaking, most people can be trusted”. The main explanatory variables include the occurrence of parental divorce for the whole sample and the age at which parents divorced for the sub-sample. The analysis is conducted using random effects ordered probit, correlated random effects ...

  3. Taxes and Bribes in Uganda

    OpenAIRE

    Jagger, Pamela; Shively, Gerald

    2014-01-01

    Using data from 433 firms operating along Uganda’s charcoal and timber supply chains we investigate patterns of bribe payment and tax collection between supply chain actors and government officials responsible for collecting taxes and fees. We examine the factors associated with the presence and magnitude of bribe and tax payments using a series of bivariate probit and Tobit regression models. We find empirical support for a number of hypotheses related to payments, highlighting the role of q...

  4. Preference diversity and the breadth of employee health insurance options.

    OpenAIRE

    Moran, J R; Chernew, M E; Hirth, R A

    2001-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To examine the effect of worker heterogeneity, firm size, and establishment size on the breadth of employer health insurance offerings. DATA SOURCES: The data were drawn from the 1993 Robert Wood Johnson Foundation Employer Health Insurance Survey of 22,000 business establishments selected randomly from ten states. STUDY DESIGN: The analysis was cross-sectional, using ordered probit models to relate the breadth of plan offerings to firm characteristics. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Firms wi...

  5. Influence of the difference in women's style of working on the habit for healthyeating

    OpenAIRE

    石田貴士; 西山未真; 丸山敦史

    2015-01-01

    This paper focuses on four eating habits of households which will be closely related with economic participationof women outside the home, who typically take charge of food preparation at home in Japan, and examines themby using multivariate probit regressions with variables representing the working style of women and the socio-demographicof her and her households. Indicators of the four habits are a) increase in the opportunity to cook dinnerat home, b) increase in opportunity to have fast f...

  6. Student Performance in Principles of Macroeconomics: the Importance of Gender and Personality Type

    OpenAIRE

    Leiv Opstad; Lars Fallan

    2010-01-01

    Several studies indicate that females perform more poorly in economic courses than their male counterparts. Other studies reveal that students' personality types affect their performance in economic courses, as well. The present study explores this issue by testing a number of interactions between gender and the Kersey-Bates temperament types in an ordered probit model explaining students' grades in Principles of Macroeconomics. The results confirm that the interaction of gender and temperame...

  7. The determinants of part-time work in Metropolitan Lima

    OpenAIRE

    Manuel Enrique Saavedra Martinez

    2011-01-01

    The following paper examines the part-time work in Metropolitan Lima in 2008. The overall objective is to identify the determinants of the incidence of part-time work in Lima. We worked with one Probit econometric model, measured by the National Survey of Households (NSH), which explores the job characteristics of people. This will determine the presence of part-time workers in the areas of trade, health, education and communication; also realized that this group has completed university stud...

  8. The determinants of part-time work in Metropolitan Lima

    OpenAIRE

    Saavedra Martinez, Manuel Enrique

    2012-01-01

    The following paper examines the part-time work in Metropolitan Lima in 2008. The overall objective is to identify the determinants of the incidence of part-time work in Lima. We worked with one Probit econometric model, measured by the National Survey of Households (NSH), which explores the job characteristics of people. This will determine the presence of part-time workers in the areas of trade, health, education and communication; also realized that this group has completed university stud...

  9. Socio-economic assessment on maize production and adoption of open pollinated improved varieties in Dang, Nepal

    OpenAIRE

    Sanjiv Subedi; Yuga Nath Ghimire; Deepa Devkota

    2017-01-01

    Research was conducted from February to May, 2017 for socioeconomic assessment on maize production and adoption of open pollinated improved maize varieties in Dang district of Nepal. Altogether, 100 samples were taken by simple random sampling from the major maize growing areas and relevant publications were reviewed. Focal Group Discussion and Key Informant Survey were also done. Descriptive statistics, unpaired t-test, probit regression and indexing were used for data analysis using statist...

  10. CONSUMER DEMAND FOR AND ATTITUDES TOWARD ALTERNATIVE BEEF LABELING STRATEGIES IN FRANCE, GERMANY, AND THE UK

    OpenAIRE

    Roosen, Jutta; Lusk, Jayson L.; Fox, John A.

    2001-01-01

    A wide array of food safety scares and breakdowns have led to loss of consumer confidence in the quality and safety of beef products. To counteract such concerns, firms and regulators have the ability to utilize brands or labels to signal quality. Utilizing a mail survey in France, Germany, and the United Kingdom, we analyzed consumer preferences for alternative beef labeling strategies. Using an ordered probit model and a double bounded logit model, we estimate consumer preferences for alter...

  11. Hog Producers' Risk Management Attitudes and Desire for Additional Risk Management Education

    OpenAIRE

    Patrick, George F.; Peiter, Amy J.; Knight, Thomas O.; Coble, Keith H.; Baquet, Alan E.

    2007-01-01

    Hog producers in Indiana and Nebraska were surveyed about sources of risk, effectiveness of risk management strategies, and prior participation in and desire for additional risk management education. Ownership of hogs by the producer, size of the operation, and age did have significant effects on ratings of both sources of risk and effectiveness of risk management strategies. Probit analysis found age, prior attendance, knowledge and prior use of the tool, level of integration, and concern ab...

  12. Consumer Acceptance of Eco-Labeled Fish: A Mexican Case Study

    OpenAIRE

    Pérez-Ramírez, Mónica; Almendarez-Hernández, Marco; Avilés-Polanco, Gerzaín; Beltrán-Morales, Luis

    2015-01-01

    Fish eco-labeling is a market-based incentive program for sustainable fisheries. This paper examines consumers’ acceptance of eco-labeled fish by using data from a pilot study conducted in a coastal area of northwestern Mexico. An ordered probit model was applied, using 364 observations. The results show that most respondents favor the idea of eco-labeled fish as a sustainable option and know that this is a costlier option. Income level, consumers’ occupation and frequency of fish consumption...

  13. Significant pre-accession factors predicting success or failure during a Marine Corps officer’s initial service obligation

    OpenAIRE

    Johnson, Jacob A.

    2015-01-01

    Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited Increasing diversity and equal opportunity in the military is a congressional and executive priority. At the same time, improving recruiting practices is a priority of the commandant of the Marine Corps. In an effort to provide information to the Marine Corps that may improve recruiting practice and enable retention of a higher quality and more diverse officer corps, probit econometric models are estimated to identify significant facto...

  14. Scientific productivity and academic promotion: a study on French and Italian physicists

    OpenAIRE

    Francesco Lissoni; Jacques Mairesse; Fabio Montobbio; Michele Pezzoni

    2011-01-01

    The article examines the determinants of scientific productivity (number of articles and journals' impact factor) for a panel of about 3600 French and Italian academic physicists active in 2004--2005. Endogeneity problems concerning promotion and productivity are addressed by specifying a generalized Tobit model, in which a selection probit equation accounts for the individual scientist's probability of promotion to her present rank, and a productivity regression estimates the effects of age,...

  15. Labor Market Characteristics and the Labor Force Participation of Individuals,

    Science.gov (United States)

    1981-11-01

    dependent variable are well-known and range from frequent uninterpretability of results to bias in statistical tests (see, e.g., Hanushek and Jackson...shown that logit and probit analysis yield almost identical results near the means of relevant variables ( Hanushek and Jackson, 1977: 188- 189). We choose...general and lucid treatment of these and related points, see Hanushek and Jackson (1977:Ch. 7). Step 2: Analysis of labor market impact on individual

  16. Irradiation as Quarantine Treatment of Rambutan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pransopon, Prapon; Kongratarpon, Titima; Vongchili, Satit; Segsarnviriya, Suchada; Limohpasmanee, Wanith; Eamsiri, Jarurat; Sajjabut, Surasak

    2006-01-01

    Eggs and larvae of Bactrocera dorsalis and Bactrocera correcta were investigated for their tolerant dose of irradiation. Artificially in feasted rambutans were irradiated at target doses of 0, 10, 20, 30, 40, 50 and 60 Gy. The results showed that the lowest dose that could inhibit adult emergence was 102.89 Gy for B. dorsalis and 97.61 Gy for B. correcta (P=0.999968, Probit 9). Larvae of B. dorsalis were irradiated at the dose

  17. PBODL : Parallel Bayesian Online Deep Learning for Click-Through Rate Prediction in Tencent Advertising System

    OpenAIRE

    Liu, Xun; Xue, Wei; Xiao, Lei; Zhang, Bo

    2017-01-01

    We describe a parallel bayesian online deep learning framework (PBODL) for click-through rate (CTR) prediction within today's Tencent advertising system, which provides quick and accurate learning of user preferences. We first explain the framework with a deep probit regression model, which is trained with probabilistic back-propagation in the mode of assumed Gaussian density filtering. Then we extend the model family to a variety of bayesian online models with increasing feature embedding ca...

  18. Molluscicidal activity of crude water leaf extracts of Alternanthera ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    mortality figures by the use of probit gave LC50 of 40.42 (35.15 – 46.47) for the unevaporated crude water while the evaporated crude water extract had LC50 of 48.07 (42.81 – 54.28) for the dried leaf extract. For the fresh leaves the unevaporated crude water extract had LC50 of 32.57 (27.15 – 39.08) and evaporated crude ...

  19. Brief Report: Association of Myositis Autoantibodies, Clinical Features, and Environmental Exposures at Illness Onset With Disease Course in Juvenile Myositis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Habers, G Esther A; Huber, Adam M; Mamyrova, Gulnara; Targoff, Ira N; O'Hanlon, Terrance P; Adams, Sharon; Pandey, Janardan P; Boonacker, Chantal; van Brussel, Marco; Miller, Frederick W; van Royen-Kerkhof, Annet; Rider, Lisa G

    2016-03-01

    To identify early factors associated with disease course in patients with juvenile idiopathic inflammatory myopathies (IIMs). Univariable and multivariable multinomial logistic regression analyses were performed in a large juvenile IIM registry (n = 365) and included demographic characteristics, early clinical features, serum muscle enzyme levels, myositis autoantibodies, environmental exposures, and immunogenetic polymorphisms. Multivariable associations with chronic or polycyclic courses compared to a monocyclic course included myositis-specific autoantibodies (multinomial odds ratio [OR] 4.2 and 2.8, respectively), myositis-associated autoantibodies (multinomial OR 4.8 and 3.5), and a documented infection within 6 months of illness onset (multinomial OR 2.5 and 4.7). A higher overall clinical symptom score at diagnosis was associated with chronic or monocyclic courses compared to a polycyclic course. Furthermore, severe illness onset was associated with a chronic course compared to monocyclic or polycyclic courses (multinomial OR 2.1 and 2.6, respectively), while anti-p155/140 autoantibodies were associated with chronic or polycyclic courses compared to a monocyclic course (multinomial OR 3.9 and 2.3, respectively). Additional univariable associations of a chronic course compared to a monocyclic course included photosensitivity, V-sign or shawl sign rashes, and cuticular overgrowth (OR 2.2-3.2). The mean ultraviolet index and highest ultraviolet index in the month before diagnosis were associated with a chronic course compared to a polycyclic course in boys (OR 1.5 and 1.3), while residing in the Northwest was less frequently associated with a chronic course (OR 0.2). Our findings indicate that myositis autoantibodies, in particular anti-p155/140, and a number of early clinical features and environmental exposures are associated with a chronic course in patients with juvenile IIM. These findings suggest that early factors, which are associated with poorer

  20. Menarcheal age of girls from dysfunctional families.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toromanović, Alma; Tahirović, Husref

    2004-07-01

    The objective of the present study was to determine median age at menarche and the influence of familial instability on maturation. The sample included 7047 girls between the ages of 9 and 17 years from Tuzla Canton. The girls were divided into two groups. Group A (N=5230) comprised girls who lived in families free of strong traumatic events. Group B (N=1817) included girls whose family dysfunction exposed them to prolonged distress. Probit analysis was performed to estimate mean menarcheal age using the Probit procedure of SAS package. The mean menarcheal age calculated by probit analysis for all the girls studied was 13.07 years. In girls from dysfunctional families a very clear shift toward earlier maturation was observed. The mean age at menarche for group B was 13.0 years, which was significantly lower that that for group A, 13.11 years (t=2.92, Pdysfunctional families mature not later but even earlier than girls from normal families. This supports the hypothesis that stressful childhood life events accelerate maturation of girls.

  1. Assessment of professional risk caused by heating microclimate in the process of un-derground mining

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    М. Л. Рудаков

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The paper reviews the possibility to apply probit-function to assess professional risks of underground mining under conditions of heating microclimate. Operations under conditions of heating microclimate, whose parameters exceed threshold criteria, can lead to dehydration, fainting and heat stroke for mine workers. Basing on the results of medico-biological research on the effects of microclimate on human body, the authors have assessed probabilistic nature of excessive heat accumulation depending on heat stress index.Using Shapiro-Wilk statistics, an assessment has been carried out in order to test correspondence of experimental data on heat accumulation in the human body to the normal law of distribution for different values of heat stress index, measured in the process of underground mining operations under conditions of heating microclimate.The paper justifies construction of a probit-model to assess professional risks caused by overheating for various types of underground mining operations, depending on their intensity.Modeling results have been verified by way of comparison with a currently used deterministic model of body overheating. Taking into account satisfactory convergence of results, the authors suggest using probit-model to assess professional risks of overheating, as this model allows to obtain a continuous dependency between professional risk and heat stress index, which in its own turn facilitates a more justified approach to the selection of measures to upgrade working conditions of personnel.

  2. Knowledge and adoption of solar home systems in rural Nicaragua

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rebane, Kaja L.; Barham, Bradford L.

    2011-01-01

    Solar home systems (SHSs) are a promising electrification option for many households in the developing world. In most countries SHSs are at an early stage of dissemination, and thus face a hurdle common to many emerging alternative energy technologies: many people do not know enough about them to decide whether to adopt one or not. This study uses survey data collected in Nicaragua to investigate characteristics that predict the knowledge and adoption of SHSs among the rural population. First, a series of probit models is used to model the determinants of four measures of SHS knowledge. Next, a biprobit model with sample selection is employed to investigate the factors that predict SHS adoption, conditional on having sufficient knowledge to make an adoption decision. Comparison of the biprobit formulation to a standard probit model of adoption affirms its value. This study identifies multiple determinants of SHS knowledge and adoption, offers several practical recommendations to project planners, and provides an analytical framework for future work in this policy-relevant area. - Research highlights: → Solar home systems (SHSs) are a promising rural electrification option in the developing world. → As with many emerging renewable energy technologies, lack of knowledge may limit SHS adoption. → We use probit models to investigate the determinants of SHS knowledge in rural Nicaragua. → We also employ a biprobit model linking the determinants of knowledge and adoption. → We find that in analyzing SHS adoption, accounting for sample selection based on knowledge is key.

  3. Predicting the probability of recession in Croatia:Is economic sentiment the missing link?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nataša Erjavec

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to assess the possibility of predicting Croatian recessionary episodes using probit models. The authors first estimate a baseline static model using four leading indicators of recession (monetary base, unemployment, industrial production, and CROBEX stock market index. Lag lengths of up to 6 months are examined for each of the observed variables in the probit specification, and several important conclusions arise from the estimated models. First, the stock market and money supply exhibit the most pronounced leading characteristics in the Croatian economy (a 3-month lag length is selected by the information criteria. Second, the dynamic model (including a lagged dependent dummy variable significantly outperforms the baseline static model. Third, the authors augment the probit model by the Economic Sentiment Indicator, which significantly contributes to the model accuracy. The latter confirms the main hypothesis of the paper, going in line with the assertion that psychological factors largely govern the economic cycles, growing in significance in times of economic hardship.

  4. Causal Mediation Analysis of Survival Outcome with Multiple Mediators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Yen-Tsung; Yang, Hwai-I

    2017-05-01

    Mediation analyses have been a popular approach to investigate the effect of an exposure on an outcome through a mediator. Mediation models with multiple mediators have been proposed for continuous and dichotomous outcomes. However, development of multimediator models for survival outcomes is still limited. We present methods for multimediator analyses using three survival models: Aalen additive hazard models, Cox proportional hazard models, and semiparametric probit models. Effects through mediators can be characterized by path-specific effects, for which definitions and identifiability assumptions are provided. We derive closed-form expressions for path-specific effects for the three models, which are intuitively interpreted using a causal diagram. Mediation analyses using Cox models under the rare-outcome assumption and Aalen additive hazard models consider effects on log hazard ratio and hazard difference, respectively; analyses using semiparametric probit models consider effects on difference in transformed survival time and survival probability. The three models were applied to a hepatitis study where we investigated effects of hepatitis C on liver cancer incidence mediated through baseline and/or follow-up hepatitis B viral load. The three methods show consistent results on respective effect scales, which suggest an adverse estimated effect of hepatitis C on liver cancer not mediated through hepatitis B, and a protective estimated effect mediated through the baseline (and possibly follow-up) of hepatitis B viral load. Causal mediation analyses of survival outcome with multiple mediators are developed for additive hazard and proportional hazard and probit models with utility demonstrated in a hepatitis study.

  5. Menarcheal age of girls from dysfunctional families

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alma Toromanović

    2004-08-01

    Full Text Available The objective of the present study was to determine median age at menarche and the influence of familial instability on maturation. The sample included 7047 girls between the ages of 9 and 17 years from Tuzla Canton. The girls were divided into two groups. Group A (N=5230 comprised girls who lived in families free of strong traumatic events. Group B (N=1817 included girls whose family dysfunction exposed them to prolonged distress. Probit analysis was performed to estimate mean menarcheal age using the Probit procedure of SAS package. The mean menarcheal age calculated by probit analysis for all the girls studied was 13.07 years. In girls from dysfunctional families a very clear shift toward earlier maturation was observed. The mean age at menarche for group B was 13.0 years, which was significantly lower that that for group A, 13.11 years (t=2.92, P<0.01. The results surveyed here lead to the conclusion that girls from dysfunctional families mature not later but even earlier than girls from normal families. This supports the hypothesis that stressful childhood life events accelerate maturation of girls.

  6. Exits from Temporary Jobs in Europe: A Competing Risks Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    D'Addio, Anna Christina; Rosholm, Michael

    2005-01-01

    We study transitions out of temporary jobs using the waves 1994-1999 of the European Community Household Panel applying a discrete time duration model. Specifically, we use a multinomial logitmodel distinguishing between exits into permanent employment and non-employment. Two different specificat......We study transitions out of temporary jobs using the waves 1994-1999 of the European Community Household Panel applying a discrete time duration model. Specifically, we use a multinomial logitmodel distinguishing between exits into permanent employment and non-employment. Two different...

  7. Poisson versus threshold models for genetic analysis of clinical mastitis in US Holsteins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vazquez, A I; Weigel, K A; Gianola, D; Bates, D M; Perez-Cabal, M A; Rosa, G J M; Chang, Y M

    2009-10-01

    Typically, clinical mastitis is coded as the presence or absence of disease in a given lactation, and records are analyzed with either linear models or binary threshold models. Because the presence of mastitis may include cows with multiple episodes, there is a loss of information when counts are treated as binary responses. Poisson models are appropriated for random variables measured as the number of events, and although these models are used extensively in studying the epidemiology of mastitis, they have rarely been used for studying the genetic aspects of mastitis. Ordinal threshold models are pertinent for ordered categorical responses; although one can hypothesize that the number of clinical mastitis episodes per animal reflects a continuous underlying increase in mastitis susceptibility, these models have rarely been used in genetic analysis of mastitis. The objective of this study was to compare probit, Poisson, and ordinal threshold models for the genetic evaluation of US Holstein sires for clinical mastitis. Mastitis was measured as a binary trait or as the number of mastitis cases. Data from 44,908 first-parity cows recorded in on-farm herd management software were gathered, edited, and processed for the present study. The cows were daughters of 1,861 sires, distributed over 94 herds. Predictive ability was assessed via a 5-fold cross-validation using 2 loss functions: mean squared error of prediction (MSEP) as the end point and a cost difference function. The heritability estimates were 0.061 for mastitis measured as a binary trait in the probit model and 0.085 and 0.132 for the number of mastitis cases in the ordinal threshold and Poisson models, respectively; because of scale differences, only the probit and ordinal threshold models are directly comparable. Among healthy animals, MSEP was smallest for the probit model, and the cost function was smallest for the ordinal threshold model. Among diseased animals, MSEP and the cost function were smallest

  8. Simplified Freeman-Tukey test statistics for testing probabilities in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper presents the simplified version of the Freeman-Tukey test statistic for testing hypothesis about multinomial probabilities in one, two and multidimensional contingency tables that does not require calculating the expected cell frequencies before test of significance. The simplified method established new criteria of ...

  9. Primary and Secondary Socialization Impacts on Support for Same-Sex Marriage after Legalization in the Netherlands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lubbers, Marcel; Jaspers, Eva; Ultee, Wout

    2009-01-01

    Two years after the legalization of same-sex marriages in the Netherlands, 65% of the Dutch population largely or completely disagrees with the statement "gay marriage should be abolished." This article shows, by way of multinomial logistic regression analysis of survey data, which socializing agents influence one's attitude toward…

  10. Foreign Diploma versus Immigrant Background: Determinants of Labour Market Success or Failure?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Storen, Liv Anne; Wiers-Jenssen, Jannecke

    2010-01-01

    This article compares the labour market situation of graduates with different types of international background. The authors look at four groups of graduates: immigrants and ethnic Norwegians graduated in Norway and immigrants and ethnic Norwegians graduated abroad. By employing multinomial logistic regression analyses the authors find that ethnic…

  11. Sequential and Simultaneous Logit: A Nested Model.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Ophem, J.C.M.; Schram, A.J.H.C.

    1997-01-01

    A nested model is presented which has both the sequential and the multinomial logit model as special cases. This model provides a simple test to investigate the validity of these specifications. Some theoretical properties of the model are discussed. In the analysis a distribution function is

  12. Leaving home and entering the housing market.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Clark, W.A.V.; Mulder, C.H.

    2000-01-01

    We use a multinomial choice model of owning a home, owning a trailer, or renting to examine the housing-market entry of young adults in the USA after they have left the parental home. We also model the choice between renting independently and sharing with roommates. We show that the likelihood of

  13. Multidimensional Computerized Adaptive Testing for Indonesia Junior High School Biology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuo, Bor-Chen; Daud, Muslem; Yang, Chih-Wei

    2015-01-01

    This paper describes a curriculum-based multidimensional computerized adaptive test that was developed for Indonesia junior high school Biology. In adherence to the Indonesian curriculum of different Biology dimensions, 300 items was constructed, and then tested to 2238 students. A multidimensional random coefficients multinomial logit model was…

  14. Why entrepreneurs do not expect their businesses: lessons from Lithuania.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Aidis, R.K.; Mickiewicz, T.

    2006-01-01

    This article applies a multinomial logit estimator to investigate which factors affect SME owners' expectations to grow their businesses in Lithuania. Our findings provide evidence that SME owners' human capital (education) matters and that growth expectations are positively related to exporting. In

  15. False Memory for Orthographically versus Semantically Similar Words in Adolescents with Dyslexia: A Fuzzy-Trace Theory Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Obidzinski, Michal; Nieznanski, Marek

    2017-01-01

    The presented research was conducted in order to investigate the connections between developmental dyslexia and the functioning of verbatim and gist memory traces--assumed in the fuzzy-trace theory. The participants were 71 high school students (33 with dyslexia and 38 without learning difficulties). The modified procedure and multinomial model of…

  16. American Youths' Access to Substance Abuse Treatment: Does Type of Treatment Facility Matter?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lo, Celia C.; Cheng, Tyrone C.

    2013-01-01

    Using data from the 2007 National Survey on Drug Use and Health, this study examines whether several social exclusion and psychological factors affect adolescents' receipt of substance abuse treatment. Multinomial logistic regression techniques were used to analyze data. The study asked how the specified factors provide pathways to receipt of…

  17. An adaptive method for γ spectra smoothing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xiao Gang; Zhou Chunlin; Li Tiantuo; Han Feng; Di Yuming

    2001-01-01

    Adaptive wavelet method and multinomial fitting gliding method are used for smoothing γ spectra, respectively, and then FWHM of 1332 keV peak of 60 Co and activities of 238 U standard specimen are calculated. Calculated results show that adaptive wavelet method is better than the other

  18. Discrete choice models for commuting interactions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rouwendal, Jan; Mulalic, Ismir; Levkovich, Or

    An emerging quantitative spatial economics literature models commuting interactions by a gravity equation that is mathematically equivalent to a multinomial logit model. This model is widely viewed as restrictive because of the independence of irrelevant alternatives (IIA) property that links sub...

  19. Relating cost-benefit analysis results with transport project decisions in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Annema, Jan Anne; Frenken, Koen|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/207145253; Koopmans, Carl; Kroesen, Maarten

    2017-01-01

    This paper relates the cost-benefit analysis (CBA) results of transportation policy proposals in the Netherlands with the decision to implement or abandon the proposal. The aim of this study is to explore the relation between the CBA results and decision-making. Multinomial logit regression models

  20. Relating cost-benefit analysis results with transport project decisions in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Annema, J.A.; Frenken, Koen; Koopmans, Carl; Kroesen, M.

    2017-01-01

    This paper relates the cost-benefit analysis (CBA) results of transportation policy proposals in the Netherlands with the decision to implement or abandon the proposal. The aim of this study is to explore the relation between the CBA results and decision-making. Multinomial logit regression

  1. A simplification of the likelihood ratio test statistic for testing ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The traditional likelihood ratio test statistic for testing hypothesis about goodness of fit of multinomial probabilities in one, two and multi – dimensional contingency table was simplified. Advantageously, using the simplified version of the statistic to test the null hypothesis is easier and faster because calculating the expected ...

  2. Has the Euro Affected the Choice of Invoicing Currency?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ligthart, J.E.; Werner, S.E.V.

    2010-01-01

    We present a new approach to study empirically the effect of the introduction of the euro on currency invoicing. Our approach uses a compositional multinomial logit model, in which currency choice depends on the characteristics of both the currency and the country. We use unique quarterly panel data

  3. Mind-Mindedness as a Multidimensional Construct: Appropriate and Nonattuned Mind-Related Comments Independently Predict Infant-Mother Attachment in a Socially Diverse Sample

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meins, Elizabeth; Fernyhough, Charles; de Rosnay, Marc; Arnott, Bronia; Leekam, Susan R.; Turner, Michelle

    2012-01-01

    In a socially diverse sample of 206 infant-mother pairs, we investigated predictors of infants' attachment security at 15 months, with a particular emphasis on mothers' tendency to comment appropriately or in a non-attuned manner on their 8-month-olds' internal states (so-called mind-mindedness). Multinomial logistic regression analyses showed…

  4. The role of agri-business incentive on under-five child immunization ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A multinomial logistic regression model used to analyze the determinant of partial or noneimmunized. Maternal health practices and access to a motivating intervention are significant factors that ensure a parent/guardian's compliance to their child immunization. The study recommends sustainability and diversification of ...

  5. The joint choice of tenure, dwelling type, size and location: the effect of home-oriented versus culture-oriented lifestyle

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frenkel, Amnon; Kaplan, Sigal

    2014-01-01

    This study investigates knowledge-workers’ housing preferences in terms of tenure, dwelling type, location and size. The analysis is conducted by applying a joint multinomial-logit ordered-response model to the housing choices of knowledgeworkers residing in the Tel-Aviv metropolitan region and w...

  6. Savings in Public Services after the Crisis: A Multilevel Analysis of Public Preferences in the EU27 (Working Paper 8)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S.G.J. Van de Walle (Steven); S.R. Jilke (Sebastian)

    2012-01-01

    textabstractPolicy responses to the financial crisis can be divided into cyclical and anti-cyclical approaches. The former advocates reducing public spending in times of financial constraints. The latter approach advocates public spending to boost the economy. Using multinomial multilevel

  7. Test Design Project: Studies in Test Adequacy. Annual Report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilcox, Rand R.

    These studies in test adequacy focus on two problems: procedures for estimating reliability, and techniques for identifying ineffective distractors. Fourteen papers are presented on recent advances in measuring achievement (a response to Molenaar); "an extension of the Dirichlet-multinomial model that allows true score and guessing to be…

  8. Farmers' choice of cattle marketing channels under transaction cost ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The theoretical predictions of transaction cost economics were tested based on primary data collected from 230 cattle farm households in 13 communities of the Okhahlamba Local Municipality. The results of a multinomial logit regression revealed some unique insights. They showed that the probability of selling at auction ...

  9. Ordering the preference hierarchies for internal finance, bank laons, bond and share issue: evidence from Dutch firms

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Haan, L.; Hinloopen, J.

    2003-01-01

    We estimate the incremental financing decision for a sample of some 150 Dutch companies for the years 1984 through 1997, thereby distinguishing internal finance and three types of external finance: bank borrowing, bond issues, and share issues. First, we estimate a multinomial logit model, which

  10. Editorial

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Ada

    ppp ttt n ... !...!! ! 2. 1. 2. 1. 21. For the multinomial, the following properties of the ...... From the fore-going and within the limitation of the superpopulation model as assumed by ... Sampling Theory when the sampling units are of unequal sizes .

  11. A Typology of Work-Family Arrangements among Dual-Earner Couples in Norway

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kitterod, Ragni Hege; Lappegard, Trude

    2012-01-01

    A symmetrical family model of two workers or caregivers is a political goal in many western European countries. We explore how common this family type is in Norway, a country with high gender-equality ambitions, by using a multinomial latent class model to develop a typology of dual-earner couples with children based on the partners' allocations…

  12. A Multilevel Study of Students' Motivations of Studying Accounting: Implications for Employers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Law, Philip; Yuen, Desmond

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this study is to examine the influence of factors affecting students' choice of accounting as a study major in Hong Kong. Design/methodology/approach: Multinomial logistic regression and Hierarchical Generalized Linear Modeling (HGLM) are used to analyze the survey data for the level one and level two data, which is the…

  13. Patterns and correlates of solid waste disposal practices in Dar es ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This study examines the patterns and correlations of solid waste disposal practices among households in urbanized and populated Dar es Salaam city in Tanzania. The Tanzanian Household Budget Survey (HBS) data covering many households' characteristics was used. Multinomial Logit (MNL) model was applied to ...

  14. The Effects of Secondary Special Education Preparation in Reading: Research to Inform State Policy in a New Era

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knackstedt, Kimberly M.; Leko, Melinda M.; Siuty, Molly Baustien

    2018-01-01

    In this study, the authors present findings from a survey of 577 secondary special educators in a large Midwestern state regarding their reading pre-service and in-service teacher preparation and its effect on teachers' sense of preparedness for teaching reading to adolescents with disabilities. Six models were fitted using multinomial logistic…

  15. Support vector machines classifiers of physical activities in preschoolers

    Science.gov (United States)

    The goal of this study is to develop, test, and compare multinomial logistic regression (MLR) and support vector machines (SVM) in classifying preschool-aged children physical activity data acquired from an accelerometer. In this study, 69 children aged 3-5 years old were asked to participate in a s...

  16. Generalised Partially Linear Regression with Misclassified Data and an Application to Labour Market Transitions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dlugosz, Stephan; Mammen, Enno; Wilke, Ralf

    We consider the semiparametric generalised linear regression model which has mainstream empirical models such as the (partially) linear mean regression, logistic and multinomial regression as special cases. As an extension to related literature we allow a misclassified covariate to be interacted...

  17. Comparison of standard maximum likelihood classification and polytomous logistic regression used in remote sensing

    Science.gov (United States)

    John Hogland; Nedret Billor; Nathaniel Anderson

    2013-01-01

    Discriminant analysis, referred to as maximum likelihood classification within popular remote sensing software packages, is a common supervised technique used by analysts. Polytomous logistic regression (PLR), also referred to as multinomial logistic regression, is an alternative classification approach that is less restrictive, more flexible, and easy to interpret. To...

  18. Factors influencing the planning of social activities : empirical analysis of social interaction diary data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Berg, van den P.E.W.; Arentze, T.A.; Timmermans, H.J.P.

    2010-01-01

    Results of a study on the planning of social activities are reported. Data collected in the Netherlands from social interaction diaries were used to estimate a multinomial logistic regression model to analyze whether a social activity is prearranged, routine, or spontaneous as a function of personal

  19. Approximating The DCM

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Rasmus Elsborg

    2005-01-01

    The Dirichlet compound multinomial (DCM), which has recently been shown to be well suited for modeling for word burstiness in documents, is here investigated. A number of conceptual explanations that account for these recent results, are provided. An exponential family approximation of the DCM...

  20. Which Kindergarten Children Are at Greatest Risk for Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity and Conduct Disorder Symptomatology as Adolescents?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morgan, Paul L.; Li, Hui; Cook, Michael; Farkas, George; Hillemeier, Marianne M.; Lin, Yu-chu

    2016-01-01

    We sought to identify which kindergarten children are simultaneously at risk of moderate or severe symptomatology in both attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) and conduct disorder (CD) as adolescents. These risk factor estimates have not been previously available. We conducted multinomial logistic regression analyses of multiinformant…

  1. Brief Report: Sexual Orientation in Individuals with Autistic Traits--Population Based Study of 47,000 Adults in Stockholm County

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rudolph, Christiane E. S.; Lundin, Andreas; Åhs, Jill W.; Dalman, Christina; Kosidou, Kyriaki

    2018-01-01

    We examined the association between autistic traits and sexual orientation in a general adult population (N = 47,356). Autistic traits were measured with the ten items Autistic Quotient questionnaire using a cut-off score of = 6. Sexual orientation was assessed by self-report. Multinomial logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios (ORs)…

  2. How Effective Are Severe Disciplinary Policies? School Policies and Offending from Adolescence into Young Adulthood

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matjasko, Jennifer L.

    2011-01-01

    Based on the stage environment and the person environment fit perspectives, the current study examined the relation between school disciplinary policies and offending from adolescence into young adulthood. Using Waves I and III of the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (a.k.a., Add Health), hierarchical multinomial logistic…

  3. Utility of DSM-5 section III personality traits in differentiating borderline personality disorder from comparison groups

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bach, B; Sellbom, M; Bo, S

    2016-01-01

    with the categorical DSM-IV/5 diagnosis of BPD (n=101) from systematically matched samples of other PD patients (n=101) and healthy controls (n=101). This was investigated using one-way ANOVA and multinomial logistic regression analyses. RESULTS: Results indicated that Emotional Lability, Risk Taking...

  4. Predictors of Early Termination in a University Counseling Training Clinic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lampropoulos, Georgios K.; Schneider, Mercedes K.; Spengler, Paul M.

    2009-01-01

    Despite the existence of counseling dropout research, there are limited predictive data for counseling in training clinics. Potential predictor variables were investigated in this archival study of 380 client files in a university counseling training clinic. Multinomial logistic regression, predictive discriminant analysis, and classification and…

  5. So Close, yet So Far Away: Early vs. Late Dropouts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Yanli; Cragg, Kristina M.

    2013-01-01

    While some students drop out early in their academic career, others drop out close to completion. What similarities and differences exist between these early and late dropouts? Using a sample 3,520 first-time, full-time (FTFT) students seeking a bachelor's degree at a state university, this study employs multinomial logistic regression to model…

  6. The Role of Predictor Courses and Teams on Individual Student Success

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker-Eveleth, Lori Jo; O'Neill, Michele; Sisodiya, Sanjay R.

    2014-01-01

    Research suggests that diverse environments enhance conscious modes of thought, resulting in greater intellectual engagement and active thinking. Ordinal and multinomial logistic regression results indicate that accounting courses and business law classes are useful predictors of subsequent performance. Odds ratio estimates indicate that students…

  7. Bullying and PTSD Symptoms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Idsoe, Thormod; Dyregrov, Atle; Idsoe, Ella Cosmovici

    2012-01-01

    PTSD symptoms related to school bullying have rarely been investigated, and never in national samples. We used data from a national survey to investigate this among students from grades 8 and 9 (n = 963). The prevalence estimates of exposure to bullying were within the range of earlier research findings. Multinomial logistic regression showed that…

  8. SHORT COMMUNICATIONS

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The relationships between S. mansoni, hookworm and S. mansoni + hookworm with P. falciparum were investigated by fitting logistic regression model taking P. falciparum as response variable. Furthermore, co-infections analysis was investigated by fitting multinomial logistic regression model where all combination of ...

  9. Beyond ROC Curvature: Strength Effects and Response Time Data Support Continuous-Evidence Models of Recognition Memory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dube, Chad; Starns, Jeffrey J.; Rotello, Caren M.; Ratcliff, Roger

    2012-01-01

    A classic question in the recognition memory literature is whether retrieval is best described as a continuous-evidence process consistent with signal detection theory (SDT), or a threshold process consistent with many multinomial processing tree (MPT) models. Because receiver operating characteristics (ROCs) based on confidence ratings are…

  10. An Exploration of Teacher Attrition and Mobility in High Poverty Racially Segregated Schools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Djonko-Moore, Cara M.

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine the mobility (movement to a new school) and attrition (quitting teaching) patterns of teachers in high poverty, racially segregated (HPRS) schools in the US. Using 2007-9 survey data from the National Center for Education Statistics, a multi-level multinomial logistic regression was performed to examine the…

  11. Determinants of Antenatal Care Use in Ghana

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Overbosch, G.B.; Nsowah-Nuamah, N.N.N.; van den Boom, G.J.M.; Damnyag, L.

    2004-01-01

    The paper investigates the determinants of antenatal care use in Ghana. In particular, we study how economic factors affect the demand for antenatal care and the probability that the number of visits falls below the recommended number of four. Estimation results from a nested three-level multinomial

  12. Transaction cost determinants of credit governance structures of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper explores transaction cost determinants of credit governance structures (CGS) of commercial banks in Tanzania. Descriptive statistics, linear regression model, binary and multinomial logistic regression models were employed for analysis. Findings revealed four modes of credit governance structures that are ...

  13. Saving for Success: Financial Education and Savings Goal Achievement in Individual Development Accounts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grinstead, Mary L.; Mauldin, Teresa; Sabia, Joseph J.; Koonce, Joan; Palmer, Lance

    2011-01-01

    Using microdata from the American Dream Demonstration, the current study examines factors associated with savings and savings goal achievement (indicated by a matched withdrawal) among participants of individual development account (IDA) programs. Multinomial logit results show that hours of participation in financial education programs, higher…

  14. Primary and Secondary Socialization Impacts on Support for Same-Sex Marriage After Legalization in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lubbers, M.; Jaspers, E.; Ultee, W.C.

    2009-01-01

    Two years after the legalization of same-sex marriages in the Netherlands, 65% of the Dutch population largely or completely disagrees with the statement "gay marriage should be abolished." This article shows, by way of multinomial logistic regression analysis of survey data, which socializing

  15. Primary and secondary socialization impacts on support for same-sex marriage after legalization in the Netherlands.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lubbers, M; Jaspers, E.; Ultee, W.C.

    2009-01-01

    Two years after the legalization of same-sex marriages in the Netherlands, 65% of the Dutch population largely or completely disagrees with the statement “gay marriage should be abolished.” This article shows, by way of multinomial logistic regression analysis of survey data, which socializing

  16. Ethnicity at the individual and neighborhood level as an explanation for moving out of the neighborhood

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schaake, K.; Burgers, J.; Mulder, C.H.

    2010-01-01

    We address the influence of both the ethnic composition of the neighborhood and the ethnicity of individual residents on moving out of neighborhoods in the Netherlands. Using the Housing Research Netherlands survey and multinomial logistic regression analyses of moving out versus not moving or

  17. In-season and out-of-season variation of rotavirus genotype distribution and age of infection across 12 European countries before the introduction of routine vaccination, 2007/08 to 2012/13

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hungerford, Daniel; Vivancos, Roberto; Read, Jonathan M

    2016-01-01

    distribution and age distribution of rotavirus gastroenteritis (RVGE) cases in and out of peak season in 12 countries which were yet to implement routine rotavirus vaccination. In multinomial multivariate logistic regression, adjusting for year, country and age, the odds of infection caused by genotype...

  18. Networks and Selection in International Migration to Spain

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Neubecker, Nina; Smolka, Marcel; Steinbacher, Anne

    This paper provides new evidence on migrant networks as determinants of the scale and skill structure of migration, using aggregate data from a recent migration boom to Spain. We develop a three-level nested multinomial logit migration model. Our model accommodates varying degrees of similarity...

  19. Inflation perceptions and inflation expectation in South Africa: trends ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper reports the results of a multinomial analysis of inflation perceptions and inflation expectations in South Africa. Inflation perceptions surveys among South African individuals have been undertaken since 2006. The introduction of these surveys followed on domestic inflation expectation surveys conducted in 2000, ...

  20. Emergency Department Use by Nursing Home Residents: Effect of Severity of Cognitive Impairment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephens, Caroline E.; Newcomer, Robert; Blegen, Mary; Miller, Bruce; Harrington, Charlene

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: To examine the 1-year prevalence and risk of emergency department (ED) use and ambulatory care-sensitive (ACS) ED use by nursing home (NH) residents with different levels of severity of cognitive impairment (CI). Design and Methods: We used multinomial logistic regression to estimate the effect of CI severity on the odds of any ED visit…

  1. Browse Title Index

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Items 151 - 200 of 399 ... Vol 3, No 3 (2014), Effects of Variety and Fermentation Time on the Quality of Rice Wine, Abstract PDF .... Vol 4, No 4 (2015), Factors Associated with Attitudes of Men towards Gender and Intimate Partner Violence Against Women in Eastern Ethiopia: A Multinomial Logistic Regression Analysis ...

  2. The Homogeneity of Social Selection in Accessing Higher Ranked Universities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Munk, Martin David; Baklanov, Nikita

    2018-01-01

    This paper demonstrates the persistence of social selectivity throughout the educational ladder, with evident social reproduction at the top. By jointly modelling multiple choices of high school, university, field of study, and institutional rank of university using a multinomial transition model...

  3. An Analysis of Losses to the Southern Commercial Timberland Base

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ian A. Munn; David Cleaves

    1998-01-01

    Demographic and physical factors influencing the conversion of commercial timberland iu the south to non-forestry uses between the last two Forest Inventory Analysis (FIA) surveys were investigated. GIS techniques linked Census data and FIA plot level data. Multinomial logit regression identified factors associated with losses to the timberland base. Conversion to...

  4. Heterogeneity in urban park use of aging visitors: a latent class analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kemperman, A.D.A.M.; Timmermans, H.J.P.

    2006-01-01

    This study describes and predicts urban parks use patterns for various age groups, with specific attention to the growing group of older adults. Park use intensity of various age groups is described. Subsequently, a multinomial logit model is estimated to describe urban park choice as a function of

  5. Household Income during Childhood and Young Adult Weight Status: Evidence from a Nutrition Transition Setting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmeer, Kammi K.

    2010-01-01

    This article explores whether household income at different stages of childhood is associated with weight status in early adulthood in a nutrition transition setting (a developing country with both underweight and overweight populations). I use multinomial logistic regression to analyze prospective, longitudinal data from Cebu, Philippines.…

  6. The determinants of the location of foreign direct investment in UK regions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dimitropoulou, Dimitra; McCann, Philip; Burke, Simon P.

    2013-01-01

    This article employs a database of over 2000 observations of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) projects in UK regions. We analyse this data by means of various multinomial and conditional logit models in order to identify the major determinants of the location choices of these inward investments.

  7. Evaluating the Locational Attributes of Education Management Organizations (EMOs)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gulosino, Charisse; Miron, Gary

    2017-01-01

    This study uses logistic and multinomial logistic regression models to analyze neighborhood factors affecting EMO (Education Management Organization)-operated schools' locational attributes (using census tracts) in 41 states for the 2014-2015 school year. Our research combines market-based school reform, institutional theory, and resource…

  8. Entrepreneurial engagement levels in the European Union

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    I. Grilo (Isabel); A.R. Thurik (Roy)

    2005-01-01

    textabstractA multinomial logit model and survey data from the 25 EU member states and the US are used to establish the effect of demographic and other variables on various entrepreneurial engagement levels. These engagement levels range from never thought about starting a business to thinking

  9. Optimization of biomass-producing conditions of Micrococcus sp. S ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Then these three variables were optimized by Box-behnken experimental design and response surface methodology, and a multinomial equation was constructed to describe the correlation between the biomass production and the three tested variables. By solving to this equation, the predicted maximum biomass was ...

  10. Mobility in the Urban Labor Market : A Panel Data Analysis for Mexico

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gong, X.; van Soest, A.H.O.; Villagomez, E.

    2000-01-01

    We analyze mobility in urban Mexico between three labor market states: working in the formal sector, working in the informal sector, and not working. We use a dynamic multinomial logit panel data model with random effects, explaining the labor market state of each individual during each time period.

  11. Caste, Class, and Urbanization: The Shaping of Religious Community in Contemporary India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stroope, Samuel

    2012-01-01

    Building on the implications of qualitative work from India and urbanism theories, I aim to understand whether religious bonding social capital in contemporary India increases with greater urbanization and whether such increases are moderated by caste or social class position. Results from multinomial logistic regression on 1,417 Hindu respondents…

  12. Determinants of Male Circumcision for HIV/AIDS Prevention in East ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Safe Male Circumcision (SMC) is one the effective strategies for reducing HIV transmission. The paper examines factors associated with SMC for HIV prevention, based on 4,979 males from East Central Uganda. Data were analysed using chi-squared tests and multinomial logistic regression. Older males aged 31 years ...

  13. Employees’ Preferences for more or fewer Working Hours. The Effects of Usual, Contractual and Standard Working Time, Family Phase and Household Characteristics, and Job Satisfaction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tijdens, K.

    2002-01-01

    This study seeks explanations for working time preferences, using cross-sectional multinomial logits for the 2001/2002 Wage Indicator dataset (N=21,727). As expected, the preferences are predominately influenced by working hours’ characteristics, showing that employees with long hours prefer to work

  14. Impact of Perceived Risk and Friend Influence on Alcohol and Marijuana Use among Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merianos, Ashley L.; Rosen, Brittany L.; Montgomery, LaTrice; Barry, Adam E.; Smith, Matthew Lee

    2017-01-01

    We performed a secondary analysis of Adolescent Health Risk Behavior Survey data (N=937), examining associations between lifetime alcohol and marijuana use with intrapersonal (i.e., risk perceptions) and interpersonal (e.g., peer approval and behavior) factors. Multinomial and binary logistic regression analyses contend students reporting lifetime…

  15. The Association between Electronic Bullying and School Absenteeism among High School Students in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grinshteyn, Erin; Yang, Y. T.

    2017-01-01

    Background: We examined the relationship between exposure to electronic bullying and absenteeism as a result of being afraid. Methods: This multivariate, multinomial regression analysis of the 2013 Youth Risk Behavior Survey data assessed the association between experiencing electronic bullying in the past year and how often students were absent…

  16. Social determinants of alcohol use among drivers in Calabar | Bello ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A semistructured questionnaire, which included the World Health Organization Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test, was administered at interview. Binary and multinomial logistic regression analyses were used to identify social determinants of any and hazardous alcohol use. Results: Determinants of any alcohol use ...

  17. Modelování vybraných ukazatelů o finanční situaci domácností v České republice

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Řezanková, Hana

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 21, č. 3 (2013), s. 32-50 ISSN 0572-3043 R&D Projects: GA ČR GAP202/10/0262 Keywords : Czech households * financial indicator * household classification * classification tree * binary logistic regression * multinomial logistic regression * F-measure Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research

  18. Inequalities involving the generating function for the number of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Fibonacci numbers can be expressed in terms of multinomial coefficients as sums over integer partitions into odd parts. We use this fact to introduce a family of double inequalities involving the generating function for the number of partitions into odd parts and the generating function for the number of odd divisors. Keywords: ...

  19. Users evaluation of transport mode characteristics with special attention to public transport

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Waerden, van der P.J.H.J.; Borgers, A.W.J.; Timmermans, H.J.P.; Berenos, M.

    2007-01-01

    The paper focuses on the influence of public transport use on the evaluation of transport mode characteristics. Based on stated choice data, several multinomial logit models that include parameters representing differences between users and non-users of public transport are estimated. The estimation

  20. Choice experiments versus revealed choice models : a before-after study of consumer spatial shopping behavior

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Timmermans, H.J.P.; Borgers, A.W.J.; Waerden, van der P.J.H.J.

    1992-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to compare a set of multinomial logit models derived from revealed choice data and a decompositional choice model derived from experimental data in terms of predictive success in the context of consumer spatial shopping behavior. Data on consumer shopping choice

  1. Predicting College Success: Achievement, Demographic, and Psychosocial Predictors of First-Semester College Grade Point Average

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saltonstall, Margot

    2013-01-01

    This study seeks to advance and expand research on college student success. Using multinomial logistic regression analysis, the study investigates the contribution of psychosocial variables above and beyond traditional achievement and demographic measures to predicting first-semester college grade point average (GPA). It also investigates if…

  2. Systems with selective overflow and change of bandwidth

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Iversen, Villy Bæk

    2012-01-01

    on the overflow group, we show by balance equations that the number of calls of each service will be Multinomial distributed with probabilities proportional with the arrival rates. Using a recent result of Newcomer & al, we then find moments (done up to fourth order) of individual overflow streams or any...

  3. A comparison of dose-response models for death from hematological depression

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morris, M.D.; Jones, T.D.

    1987-01-01

    Many radiation-induced lethality experiments that have been published for various mammalian species have been compiled into a database suitable to study interspecific variability of radiosensitivity, dose-rate dependence of sensitivity, dose-response behavior within each experiment, etc. The data compiled were restricted to continuous and nearly continuous exposures to photon radiations having source energies above 100 keV. Also, photon source energy, exposure geometry, and body weight considerations were used to select studies where the dose to hematopoietic marrow was nearly uniform, i.e., < +- 20%. The data base reflects 13 mammalian test species ranging from mouse to cattle. Some 211 studies were compiled but only 105 were documented in adequate detail to be useful in development and evaluation of dose-response models of interest to practical human exposures. Of the 105 studies, 70 were for various rodent species, and 35 were for nonrodent groups ranging from standard laboratory primates (body weight ∼5 kg) to cattle (body weight 375 kg). This paper considers seven different dose-response models which are tested for validity against those 105 studies. The dose-response models included: a right-skewed extreme value, a left-skewed extreme value model, log-logistic, log-probit, logistic, probit, and Weibull models. In general, the log transformed models did not improve model performance and the extreme value models did not seem consistent with the preponderance of the data. Overall, the probit and the logistic models seemed preferable over the Weibull model. 30 refs., 8 tabs

  4. Physical activity and healthy diet: determinants and implicit relationship.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tavares, Aida Isabel

    2014-06-01

    People who decide to lose weight by dieting often do so without participating in any associated physical activity. Although some people who participate in sports are unconcerned about their diet, it is generally believed that people who exercise tend to eat a healthy diet and those who do not exercise eat a less healthy diet. There is no clear relationship between the decisions regarding participation in physical activity and eating a healthy diet when choices are taken freely and not influenced by policy factors promoting healthy behaviour. However, these decisions may reveal some common explanatory factors and an implicit link. As such the aim of this study was to identify the common explanatory factors and investigate the existence of an implicit relationship. Econometric estimate - bivariate probit estimation. Using data from the Portuguese National Health Survey, a bivariate probit was undertaken for decisions regarding participation in physical activity and eating a healthy diet. The correlation between the residuals gives information on the implicit relationship between the healthy choices. Common explanatory factors were found between the decisions to eat healthy snacks and participate in physical activity, such as being married. However, holding voluntary private health insurance, smoking, getting older, living alone and unemployment were found to dissuade people from making healthy choices. Positive correlation was found between the residuals of the probit estimations, indicating that other unmeasurable variables have a similar influence on both decisions, such as peer pressure, cultural values, fashion, advertising and risk aversion. Further research is needed to improve understanding of decision making related to participation in physical activity and eating a healthy diet. This will facilitate the design of policies that will make a greater contribution to healthy lifestyles. Copyright © 2014 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier

  5. To drill or not to drill? An econometric analysis of US public opinion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mukherjee, Deep; Rahman, Mohammad Arshad

    2016-01-01

    Offshore drilling in the United States (US) has been the subject of public and political discourse due to multiple reasons which include economic impact, energy security, and environmental hazard. Consequently, several polls have been conducted over time to gauge public attitude towards offshore drilling. Nevertheless, the economic literature on this issue is sparse. This paper contributes to the literature and analyzes support for offshore drilling based on demographic, economic, social, belief, and shock (e.g. spill) factors. The data is taken from ten nationwide surveys conducted before, during and after the British Petroleum (BP) oil spill and analyzed within the framework of discrete choice model. The results from an ordinal probit model demonstrate that age, annual household income, affiliation to Republican Party, and residence in oil-rich states positively affect the probability of strong support and reduce the probability of strong opposition for offshore drilling. In contrast, the female gender, higher education, association to Democratic Party, and environmental concern affect opinion in opposite direction. Marginal effects show that belief about environmental consequences of drilling has the highest impact on opinion. Binary probit model also yields a similar result and suggests that BP oil disaster resulted in a transient decrease in support for offshore drilling. - Highlights: •US public opinion on offshore drilling is analyzed based on ten national polls. •Ordinal and binary probit models are utilized to identify the underlying factors that shape public opinion. •Belief about environmental cost of drilling and educational attainment have the highest negative impact on opinion. •Age, income, affiliation to Republican party and oil-rich states positively affect support for drilling. •BP oil spill resulted in a transient decrease in support for offshore drilling.

  6. El entorno regional y la percepción del estado de salud en Colombia, 2003

    OpenAIRE

    Luís Miguel Tovar Cuevas; Gustavo Adolfo García Cruz

    2006-01-01

    En este artículo se estudia el impacto de un conjunto de variables sobre la percepción del estado de salud de los individuos en las regiones que establece la Encuesta Nacional de Calidad de Vida (ECV), realizada por el Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadísticas, DANE, en 2003. En el trabajo econométrico se utilizaron modelos Probit ordenados donde las variables adoptadas denotan diferentes factores socioeconómicos, demográficos, institucionales y familiares. El análisis por regiones...

  7. Gamma irradiation as a quarantine treatment for carambolas infested with Caribbean fruit flies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gould, W.P.; Windeguth, D.L. von

    1991-01-01

    Carambolas infested with the Caribbean fruit fly Anastrepha suspensa (Loew), eggs and larvae were exposed to ionizing gamma radiation. Probit 9 was estimated to be 22.95 Gy (95% fiducial limits 16.68 Gy - 49.73 Gy). Over 100,000 immature A. suspensa infesting carambolas were treated at 50 Gy with no adult survivors. This dose did not cause any observable damage to the fruit. The 50 Gy dose satisfies quarantine requirements for treatment of fruits exposed from fruit fly infested areas. (author) [es

  8. Taxes and Bribes in Uganda

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jagger, Pamela; Shively, Gerald

    2016-01-01

    Using data from 433 firms operating along Uganda’s charcoal and timber supply chains we investigate patterns of bribe payment and tax collection between supply chain actors and government officials responsible for collecting taxes and fees. We examine the factors associated with the presence and magnitude of bribe and tax payments using a series of bivariate probit and Tobit regression models. We find empirical support for a number of hypotheses related to payments, highlighting the role of queuing, capital-at-risk, favouritism, networks, and role in the supply chain. We also find that taxes crowd-in bribery in the charcoal market. PMID:27274568

  9. ¿Es importante la industria del catering para la gestión aeroportuaria? Conclusiones del sistema aeroportuario español.

    OpenAIRE

    Castillo Manzano, José I.; López Valpuesta, Lourdes; Jiménez Caballero, José Luis (Coordinador)

    2013-01-01

    Esta comunicación busca analizar la importancia de los establecimientos de restauración en los aeropuertos españoles y estudia los factores que determinan el comportamiento del pasajero como consumidor en el entorno aeroportuario. Con una muestra de más de 37.000 pasajeros encuestados en 8 aeropuertos españoles y la estimación de un modelo Probit se concluye que son las necesidades fisiológicas y los motivos sociales los factores que determinan que el pasajero acuda a un e...

  10. Un modelo explicativo de los niveles de adopción de comercio electrónico en MiPyMes de Córdoba, Argentina

    OpenAIRE

    Alderete, María Verónica; Jones, Carola; Motta, Jorge; Gonzalez Kriegel, Bernardo

    2014-01-01

    En este trabajo se pretende explicar los factores que simultáneamente inciden en el nivel de adopción del comercio electrónico para una muestra de 119 Micro, Pequeñas y Medianas (MiPyME) empresas de Córdoba, Argentina. Para ello, se aplica un modelo de regresión Probit ordenado. Se toma como referencia el estudio exploratorio-descriptivo de Jones, Alderete y Motta (2013) que identifica los principales factores relacionados con la adopción del comercio electrónico, entre los cuales se desta...

  11. Water Reuse in Brazilian Manufacturing Firms

    OpenAIRE

    José Féres; Arnaud Reynaud; Alban Thomas

    2015-01-01

    This paper examines the factors influencing water reuse in manufacturing firms and analyzes whether the structure of intake water demand differs between firms that adopt water reuse practices and those which do not. To this purpose, we estimate a two-stage econometric model based on a sample of 447 industrial facilities located in the Paraíba do Sul river basin. The first stage applies a probit model for the water reuse decision and the second stage employs an endogenous switching regression ...

  12. Robust Inference with Multi-way Clustering

    OpenAIRE

    A. Colin Cameron; Jonah B. Gelbach; Douglas L. Miller; Doug Miller

    2009-01-01

    In this paper we propose a variance estimator for the OLS estimator as well as for nonlinear estimators such as logit, probit and GMM. This variance estimator enables cluster-robust inference when there is two-way or multi-way clustering that is non-nested. The variance estimator extends the standard cluster-robust variance estimator or sandwich estimator for one-way clustering (e.g. Liang and Zeger (1986), Arellano (1987)) and relies on similar relatively weak distributional assumptions. Our...

  13. FACTORES QUE INCIDEN EN LA PROBABILIDAD DE PERMANECER EN LA INFORMALIDAD EN COLOMBIA (2008-2012: UN ANÁLISIS DE LAS MEDIDAS DE POLÍTICA PÚBLICA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    JURANY BECCIE RAMÍREZ GALLEGO

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Este documento analiza los efectos que tienen algunas medidas de política pública sobre las deci - siones de los individuos de participar en el mercado laboral bajo la modalidad de informalidad. Se emplea un modelo Probit para el análisis de los datos. La conclusión final no podrá ser que las po - líticas públicas generen más o menos pobreza, sino si hay algún efecto sobre la participación laboral en el mercado informal.

  14. Computer Science and Statistics. Proceedings of the Symposium on the Interface (18th) Held on March 19-21, 1986 in Fort Collins, Colorado.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1987-08-26

    MACROS scaled $sub tile probit cycle deviance df $mac fv 4i 114~.7 18 $switch %s mext $calc lp-u*%lp :y~r/n $caic %3=1 :phez%np(lp)gu: $yvar y dphe :(1...z1/((1-%pe(a))* dphe ) I HAVE CONTROL OVER %pe ORDER $endm I IT WOULD NOT BE NEEDED WERE $a vs Scale %va_-f’v*(1-%fv)/n I ’a’ NOT A FACTOR. $calc %va

  15. Gamma irradiation followed by cold storage as a quarantine treatment for Florida grapefruit infested with Caribbean fruit fly

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Von Windeguth, D.L.; Gould, W.P.

    1990-01-01

    'Marsh' white grapefruit, Citrus paradisi (Macf.). infested with eggs and larvae of Caribbean fruit fly, Anastrepha suspensa (Loew) were subjected to ionizing radiation at several low doses followed by cold (1.1°C) storage for 0 to 8 days. Data analyses indicated that an irradiation dose of 50 Gray followed by 5 days of cold storage will give in excess of probit 9 level of quarantine security. A test involving more than 100,000 insects infesting grapefruit confirmed the efficacy of this treatment

  16. Determinantes de la violencia entre pares en escuelas secundarias del Estado de México: calidad de relaciones con maestros y familiares

    OpenAIRE

    Arlette Covarrubias Feregrino; Nelly Rosa Caro Luján

    2016-01-01

    El objetivo de este artículo es analizar, por medio de un Probit ordenado, si las relaciones del alumno con sus maestros y familiares aumentan la probabilidad de que este ejerza violencia contra sus compañeros en las escuelas secundarias del Estado de México. Existen varios tipos de violencia: verbal, física, psicológica, sexual y hacia las pertenencias de otros. La muestra se compuso de 1 217 adolescentes de ambos sexos, y es representativa de los alumnos de secundaria del Est...

  17. La política económica de las crisis financieras: una aproximación empírica

    OpenAIRE

    Perilla Jiménez, Juan R.

    2008-01-01

    Este artículo presenta un modelo de pérdida política para analizar la interacción entre la naturaleza política de las decisiones económicas y su efecto en la probabilidad de crisis financieras. Utiliza dos definiciones diferentes de crisis, monetaria y de balanza de pagos, para contrastar el poder explicativo de los factores estrictamente políticos sobre esas dos definiciones de la crisis. Además, utiliza un modelo probit con observaciones de 63 países entre 1985 y 2000. La evidencia estadíst...

  18. La política económica de las crisis financieras: una aproximación empírica

    OpenAIRE

    Juan Ricardo Perilla Jiménez

    2008-01-01

    Se desarrolla un modelo de pérdida política para analizar la interacción entre la naturaleza política de las decisiones económicas y su efecto en la probabilidad de crisis financieras. Se utilizan dos definiciones diferentes de crisis, una en términos monetarios y la otra en términos de balanza de pagos, para contrastar el poder explicativo de factores de naturaleza estrictamente política sobre definiciones alternativas del evento de crisis. Además, se utiliza un modelo probit sobre una muest...

  19. Bank Lending Policy, Credit Scoring and Value at Risk

    OpenAIRE

    Jacobson, Tor; Roszbach, Kasper

    1998-01-01

    In this paper we apply a bivariate probit model to investigate the implications of bank lending policy. In the first equation we model the bank´s decision to grant a loan, in the second the probability of default. We confirm that banks provide loans in a way that is not consistent with default risk minimization. The lending policy must thus either be inefficient or be the result of some other type of optimizing behavior than expected profit maximization. Value at Risk, being a value weighted ...

  20. New Evidence on Cross-Country Differences in Job Satisfaction Using Anchoring Vignettes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kristensen, Nicolai; Johansson, Edvard

    2006-01-01

    This paper presents results on cross-country comparison of job satisfaction across seven EU countries taking into account that people in different countries may perceive subjective questions differently. We apply a chopit model approach where the threshold parameters in an ordered probit model...... somewhat lower while workers from the Netherlands are found to have the highest level of job satisfaction. These results suggest that cultural di¤erences in the way people perceive subjective questions about satisfaction make simple cross-country comparison misleading....

  1. The Role of Credit in Predicting US Recessions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pönkä, Harri

    are useful predictors of US recessions over and above the control variables both in and out of sample. Especially the excess bond premium, capturing the cyclical changes in the relationship between default risk and credit spreads, is found to be a powerful predictor. Overall, models that combine credit......We study the role of credit in forecasting US recession periods with probit models. We employ both classical recession predictors and common factors based on a large panel of financial and macroeconomic variables as control variables. Our findings suggest that a number of credit variables...

  2. A Dynamic Electricity Tariff Survey for Smart Grid in South Korea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eunjoo Kim

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, an analysis for consumer perception of the level of electricity price, the amount of household electricity consumption and consumer perception on dynamic electricity pricing system in South Korea are investigated. A survey was conducted between July 24 and August 17, 2015 and then for the preference analysis, Binary Logistic Model is applied for the acceptance, Ordered Probit Model is applied. The major findings say that the less they have monthly income, the more satisfied dynamic pricing. In dynamic electricity tariff, real time pricing is most preferred dynamic pricing system and it reaches about 40% of respondents.

  3. An investigation on the effect of central bank money injection on creating currency crisis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nazi Mohamadzadeh Asl

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the effects of different factors influencing on supplement of currency in Iran and the likelihood of currency crises. The study implements two methods of Logit and Probit to determine the likelihood of currency crises based on the historical data over the period 1989-2012. In this study, currency crisis is defined in terms of three variables of currency change on market, interest rate and central bank foreign deposits. The results of the study indicate that the ratio of government (non-government liabilities to central bank/Growth domestic product (GDP has positive (negative relationship with currency crises.

  4. Bromuro de metilo como tratamiento cuarentenario para cítricos infestados por la mosca del Mediterráneo

    OpenAIRE

    Zapater, Miguel Carlos

    1992-01-01

    p.171-176 Distintas variedades de naranjas, mandarinas y pomelos Infestadas por la mosca del Mediterráneo, Ceratitis capitata, fueron expuestas al bromuro de metilo (BM) para determinar la posibilidad de su empleo como tratamiento cuarentenario interno. 32 g-m3 de BM a 26 °C aplicados durante 2 hs. a fruta infestada artificialmente, alcanzaron el nivel de mortalidad correspondiente al standard probit 9, indicando su aptitud como fumigante adecuado para el tratamiento de las variedades cítr...

  5. El estado de salud del adulto mayor en América Latina

    OpenAIRE

    R. Todd Jewell; Máximo Rossi; Patricia Triunfo

    2006-01-01

    Haciendo uso de los datos de la Encuesta sobre Salud, Bienestar y Envejecimiento, este trabajo analiza el estado de salud de las personas mayores a 60 años en cinco países de América Latina: Argentina, Brasil, Chile, México y Uruguay. Empleando modelos probit ordenados fue posible investigar los efectos de variables socioeconómicas sobre el estado de salud auto-reportado. Los resultados indican que la autopercepción de la salud está relacionada positivamente con una buena nutrición, una mayor...

  6. Demanda actual y potencial de la carne de conejo en el Municipio de Texcoco, Estado de México.

    OpenAIRE

    Rosas Peralta, Natividad

    2013-01-01

    La carne de conejo es un alimento sano para el consumo humano por su alto contenido proteico, bajo porcentaje de grasa y colesterol, es de fácil digestión, reducida en calorías, rica en vitaminas B y en minerales. El objetivo del presente estudio fue estimar la demanda actual y potencial de la carne de conejo en el municipio de Texcoco, estado de México. Se realizó un estudio por muestreo probabilístico en 105 hogares. Se estimó un modelo binario probit, en el cual, el consumo de carne de con...

  7. Determinants of attitudes to risk in Europeans : an empirical analysis based on Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE)

    OpenAIRE

    Madeira, Inês Margarida Pereira

    2012-01-01

    Mestrado em Finanças Esta tese investiga os determinantes da atitude face ao risco financeiro dos idosos europeus no contexto da Household Finance. Após a análise da literatura relevante, foram testados empiricamente os determinantes da atitude em relação ao risco com base nos dados do Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) 2006/2007 de 14 países (N=17.587 observações de indivíduos entre os 50 e os 86 anos). Várias especificações foram testadas usando a modelação Probit,...

  8. Factores incidentes en el uso de métodos anticonceptivos en la población adolescente y adulta joven en Costa Rica

    OpenAIRE

    Carmen Sánchez-Retana; Rolando Leiva-Granados

    2016-01-01

    Objetivo: analizar los factores que inciden en el uso de métodos anticonceptivos de la población adolescente y adulta joven de Costa Rica (entre 15 y 35 años de edad). Métodos: Por medio de los datos de la Encuesta Nacional de Juventud 2007 y la metodología basada en el Modelo Probit binario con corrección de sesgos de selección mediante Heckman, se modela la decisión de uso de anticonceptivos con base en diferentes características personales y socioeconómicas. Resultados: se muestra que la...

  9. Dinámica de los predictores de adopción de Internet en Medellín

    OpenAIRE

    Díez Arango, Daniela; Lalinde Mery, David

    2016-01-01

    En este trabajo se propone analizar la dinámica del impacto asociado a algunos predictores de la adopción de internet en la ciudad de Medellín (Colombia), utilizando como base de datos la Encuesta de calidad de vida de Medellín (ECV) desde el año 2006 a 2014 -- Se analizarán que variables inciden en la tenencia de internet, se realizará la estadística descriptiva necesaria, y regresiones mediante los modelos Logit y Probit -- El acceso a internet aún se encuentra reservado para una parte priv...

  10. Factores explicativos de la disposición a pagar por atributos culturales en nuez de Castilla

    OpenAIRE

    Luna Méndez, Nexeai; Jaramillo Villanueva, José Luis; Ramírez Juárez, Javier

    2016-01-01

    [EN] The aim of the study was to determine the explanatory factors of the willingness to pay (WTP) a price premium for consuming local Castilla walnut versus the imported one in the region of “Sierra Nevada”, state of Puebla. Data were gathered from 216 questionnaires administered to consumers in three cities: Puebla capital, San Pedro Cholula and Atlixco. To explain the WTP, an econometric probit model with multiple intervals was estimated. A WTP a premium of 10 % for the attribute “local” w...

  11. Modelo de elección discreta de la demanda de transporte urbano para quito y Guayaquil, 2003 – 2004

    OpenAIRE

    Campos M., Daisy; Suri V, Vanessa; Intriago Ruiz, Xavier

    2009-01-01

    El mercado de transportación urbana, ha sido analizado desde la demanda como una elección entre alternativas que deben ser rivales entre tipo publico y privado. Desarrollamos un modelo probit de elección binomial de McFadden. Para el desarrollo de este estudio se utilizara información de la Encuesta Nacional de Ingresos y Gastos de los Hogares Urbanos (ENIGHU), elaborados por el INEC para el periodo de febrero del 2003 hasta enero del 2004, con una muestra de 5.283 hogares, realizada para Q...

  12. "Female-Headed Families: Why Are They So Poor?"

    OpenAIRE

    Joan R. Rodgers

    1991-01-01

    Over the last few decades in the United States, the poverty rate for female-headed families (with no husband present) has been about three times the poverty rate for male-headed families (with no wife present) and about six times the poverty rate for married- couple families. This paper addresses the question of why, in general, female-headed families are so much poorer than other families. A decomposition of poverty rates and a set of probit models are used to identify the factors which dete...

  13. Consumer fair prices for less pesticide in potato

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. SEREFOGLU

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available This study estimates Turkish citizens’ willingness to pay (WTP for reduced pesticides on potatoes.These estimates rely on data collected from 393 persons covering all regions in Turkey throughan online survey during the period from June 22 - July 21, 2014. The average WTP was found to be about TL 1.68 for all observations including zero bids and TL 2.91 excluding zero bids. The results of the probit model show that cosmetic defects, free-pesticide potatoes with insect damages, age, and gender were identified by the model to have significant impacts on the probability of WTP.

  14. Evaluation of larvicidal activity and brine shrimp toxicity of rhizome extracts of Zingiber zerumbet (L.) Smith.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bücker, Augusto; Falcão-Bücker, Nádia Cristina; Nunez, Cecília Veronica; Pinheiro, Carlos Cleomir de Souza; Tadei, Wanderli Pedro

    2013-01-01

    In this study, we used dichloromethane (DCM) and methanol (MeOH) extracts of the Zingiber zerumbet rhizome to evaluate brine shrimp lethality and larvicidal activity on Aedes aegypti and Anopheles nuneztovari mosquitoes. Bioassays were performed by exposing third-instar larvae of each mosquito species to the DCM or MeOH extracts. Probit analysis with DCM and MeOH extracts demonstrated efficient larvicidal activity against A. aegypti and A. nuneztovari larvae. The DCM and MeOH extracts showed higher activity against A. nuneztovari larvae than against A. aegypti larvae, suggesting that the extracts have species-specific activity.

  15. Caracterización socioeconómica y ambiental de la producción de café orgánico en el Perú

    OpenAIRE

    TUDELA MAMANI, JUAN WALTER; UNIVERSIDAD NACIONAL DEL ALTIPLANO

    2015-01-01

    El presente estudio identifica los elementos que hacen que un productor de café en el Perú, produzca de forma orgánica. Así a través de modelos logit y probit se identifican los determinantes sociales, económicos y ambientales. Se utiliza información del IV Censo Nacional Agropecuario – 2012. Los productores con mayor experiencia en el cultivo del café, los hombres, los más educados, los que participan en asociaciones, comités o cooperativas, los que tienen mayor superficie sembrada de café, ...

  16. Looking for a road to get out of poverty. Is the current allocation of public spending on education in Colombia helping?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Blanca Cecilia Zuluaga Díaz

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a methodology to explore the impact on poverty of the public spending on education. The methodology consists of two approaches: Benefit Incidence Analysis (BIA and behavioral approach. BIA considers the cost and use of the educational service, and the distribution of the benefits among groups of income. Regarding the behavioral approach, we use a Probit model of schooling attendance, in order to determine the influence of public spending on the probability for the poor to attend the school. As a complement, a measurement of targeting errors in the allocation of public spending is included in the methodology.

  17. Taxes and Bribes in Uganda.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jagger, Pamela; Shively, Gerald

    Using data from 433 firms operating along Uganda's charcoal and timber supply chains we investigate patterns of bribe payment and tax collection between supply chain actors and government officials responsible for collecting taxes and fees. We examine the factors associated with the presence and magnitude of bribe and tax payments using a series of bivariate probit and Tobit regression models. We find empirical support for a number of hypotheses related to payments, highlighting the role of queuing, capital-at-risk, favouritism, networks, and role in the supply chain. We also find that taxes crowd-in bribery in the charcoal market.

  18. Relation between lowered colloid osmotic pressure, respiratory failure, and death.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tonnesen, A S; Gabel, J C; McLeavey, C A

    1977-01-01

    Plasma colloid osmotic pressure was measured each day in 84 intensive care unit patients. Probit analysis demonstrated a direct relationship between colloid osmotic pressure (COP) and survival. The COP associated with a 50% survival rate was 15.0 torr. COP was higher in survivors than in nonsurvivors without respiratory failure and in patients who recovered from respiratory failure. We conclude that lowered COP is associated with an elevated mortality rate. However, the relationship to death is not explained by the relationship to respiratory failure.

  19. The determinants of part-time work in Metropolitan Lima

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manuel Enrique Saavedra Martinez

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available The following paper examines the part-time work in Metropolitan Lima in 2008. The overall objective is to identify the determinants of the incidence of part-time work in Lima. We worked with one Probit econometric model, measured by the National Survey of Households (NSH, which explores the job characteristics of people. This will determine the presence of part-time workers in the areas of trade, health, education and communication; also realized that this group has completed university studies and incomplete, and the woman has a probability of 83,11397% more than men of working part time.

  20. The Demand Side of Clientelism in Mexico: Analyzing the “Client” Identity in Recent Elections

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristina Tapia Muro

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available While clientelism is an important tool used by political parties for electoral victory, the identity of the "client" is a relatively unexplored topic from a quantitative perspective. The case of Mexico is not an exception. This study provides evidence on a fundamental question: what are the contextual and individual factors affecting the probability of individual participation in a clientelist exchange? To answer this question, probit models were estimated using data from the "Panel Study of Mexico" 2000 and 2006. Unlike other studies, results show that voter’s individual characteristics do not decisively affect their chance of being a “client”, as opposed to the contextual situation.

  1. Sensitivity of Ceratitis capitata eggs irradiated in artificial diet and in mango fruits

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raga, A.; Yasuoka, S.T.; Amorim, E.O.; Sato, M.E.; Suplicy Filho, N.; Faria, J.T. de

    1996-01-01

    The objective of this study was to establish gamma radiation doses required to prevent emergence of Ceratitis capitata adults, from irradiated eggs in artificial diet and mango fruits. Six-, twelve-, twenty-four-, and forty-eight-hour-old eggs were used. Artificial infestation by C. capitata was carried out in mangoes of Haden, Tommy and Keith cultivars. An increase of radiation resistance of C. capitata eggs was observed as a function of the embryonic development and a Probit 9 of 24.67 Gy was estimated for 48-hour-old eggs in artificial diet. No significant influence of mango fruits was found on the efficacy of irradiation. (author)

  2. Paying taxes in Euro area countries: issues behind tax morale

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Virgilijus Rutkauskas

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available This article investigates theoretical and practical aspects of tax morale in euro area countries. The attitude of households on tax payment – whether to pay taxes or not – is assessed quantitatively by employing dichotomous logit-probit regression analysis. Research is based on household level data received from World Values Survey and European Values Study. The results suggest that the main issues behind weak tax morale are corruption, disrespect to the country. Additionally tax morale is significantly affected by factors like age, gender, religiousness, gender, income and education. Article concludes on possible policy options in order to increase tax morale.

  3. QR-GARCH-M Model for Risk-Return Tradeoff in U.S. Stock Returns and Business Cycles

    OpenAIRE

    Nyberg, Henri

    2010-01-01

    In the empirical finance literature findings on the risk return tradeoff in excess stock market returns are ambiguous. In this study, we develop a new QR-GARCH-M model combining a probit model for a binary business cycle indicator and a regime switching GARCH-in-mean model for excess stock market return with the business cycle indicator defining the regime. Estimation results show that there is statistically significant variation in the U.S. excess stock returns over the business cycle. Howev...

  4. Characterizing of internet banking users in Davao City Philippines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jim John Quilantang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This study was conducted to determine the factors that influence the adoption of internet banking in Davao City. Survey questionnaires were administered to 120 respondents represented by two groups, 60 users and 60 non-users. Four identified variables, demographic profile of respondents, perceived usefulness, perceived ease-of-use, and trust of bank customers towards banks are considered. Probit regression analysis revealed that age and income have strong influence to internet banking adoption. Usefulness and perceived ease-of-use were both found also a strong determinant of internet banking adoption.

  5. The determinants of financial inclusion in Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandra Zins

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this paper is to examine the determinants of financial inclusion in Africa. We use the World Bank's Global Findex database on 37 African countries to perform probit estimations. We find that being a man, richer, more educated and older favor financial inclusion with a higher influence of education and income. Mobile banking is driven by the same determinants than traditional banking. We observe that the determinants of informal finance differ from those of formal finance. Our work therefore contains findings to design policies to foster financial inclusion in African countries.

  6. Do study grants help refugees find jobs? A case study of the effects of the voluntary sector grants on the education, training and employment of refugees in the United Kingdom

    OpenAIRE

    Ilmolelian, Peter

    2005-01-01

    Using the Africa Educational Trust (AET) as a case study, the primary aim of the research was to investigate whether or not the employment outcomes of those refugees who received financial grants to enable them attend their education/training courses were different from those who did not. 122 individuals who applied to AET for grants in 1993/94 were interviewed and data analysed using the Probit model and McNemar's Chi- squared test of significance. The study found that grant holders were mor...

  7. Do More Economists Hold Stocks?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christiansen, Charlotte; Joensen, Juanna Schröter; Rangvid, Jesper

    A unique data set enables us to test the hypothesis that more economists than otherwise identical investors hold stocks due to informational advantages. We confirm that economists have a significantly higher probability of participating in the stock market than investors with any other education......, even when controlling for several background characteristics. We make use of a large register-based panel data set containing detailed information on the educational attainments and various financial and socioeconomic variables. We model the stock market participation decision by the probit model...

  8. Testing indirect effect of consumer attitudes toward a product

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hrubá, Renata; Sudzina, Frantisek

    2016-01-01

    a questionnaire in 2010-2011. The model is estimated using probit analysis to predict relationship between producer and consumer in decision-making when buying a new type of cheese and to examine consumer attitudes toward food origins and nutrient food security. It can be concluded that the indirect effect (e...... and on the indirect and direct effects of the perception of information through information behavior and the use of the model ordered. It is proposed that consumer levels of product familiarity of attributes affects behavior. Consumer attitudes towards agri-food products and behaviour were analyzed through...

  9. Evaluation of Statistical Methods for Modeling Historical Resource Production and Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nanzad, Bolorchimeg

    This master's thesis project consists of two parts. Part I of the project compares modeling of historical resource production and forecasting of future production trends using the logit/probit transform advocated by Rutledge (2011) with conventional Hubbert curve fitting, using global coal production as a case study. The conventional Hubbert/Gaussian method fits a curve to historical production data whereas a logit/probit transform uses a linear fit to a subset of transformed production data. Within the errors and limitations inherent in this type of statistical modeling, these methods provide comparable results. That is, despite that apparent goodness-of-fit achievable using the Logit/Probit methodology, neither approach provides a significant advantage over the other in either explaining the observed data or in making future projections. For mature production regions, those that have already substantially passed peak production, results obtained by either method are closely comparable and reasonable, and estimates of ultimately recoverable resources obtained by either method are consistent with geologically estimated reserves. In contrast, for immature regions, estimates of ultimately recoverable resources generated by either of these alternative methods are unstable and thus, need to be used with caution. Although the logit/probit transform generates high quality-of-fit correspondence with historical production data, this approach provides no new information compared to conventional Gaussian or Hubbert-type models and may have the effect of masking the noise and/or instability in the data and the derived fits. In particular, production forecasts for immature or marginally mature production systems based on either method need to be regarded with considerable caution. Part II of the project investigates the utility of a novel alternative method for multicyclic Hubbert modeling tentatively termed "cycle-jumping" wherein overlap of multiple cycles is limited. The

  10. New Men and New Women? A Comparison of Paid Work Propensities from a Panel Data Perspective

    OpenAIRE

    Booth, Alison L; Jenkins, Stephen P; Serrano, Carlos

    1997-01-01

    The paper uses BHPS waves 1–5 (1991–5) to compare paid work participation rates of men and women. Year-on-year persistence in paid work propensities is high, but greater for men than women. Non-work persistence is higher for women. Using panel data probit regression models, the paper also investigates why men’s and women’s participation rates differ, comparing the roles of differences in observable characteristics and differences in rates of return to these characteristics, while also control...

  11. Effect of dietary fatty acid intake on prospective weight change in the Heidelberg cohort of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nimptsch, Katharina; Berg-Beckhoff, Gabi; Linseisen, Jakob

    2010-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the association between fatty acid (alpha-linolenic acid (ALA), EPA, DHA, palmitic, stearic, oleic, linoleic and arachidonic acids) intake and prospective weight change in the Heidelberg cohort of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition. DESIGN....... RESULTS: Stearic acid intake was linearly associated with weight gain (P acid intake, significantly so in women. In multinomial models, women in the highest tertile of ALA and stearic acid intake showed increased OR (95 % CI......) and categorised into four groups (weight loss, or =2.5 to or =7.5%/5 years). Energy-adjusted dietary fatty acid intake data were estimated from the FFQ completed at baseline. Multivariate linear regression models as well as multinomial logistic regression analyses (carbohydrate replacement models) were conducted...

  12. Study of Machine-Learning Classifier and Feature Set Selection for Intent Classification of Korean Tweets about Food Safety

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yeom, Ha-Neul

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, several studies have proposed making use of the Twitter micro-blogging service to track various trends in online media and discussion. In this study, we specifically examine the use of Twitter to track discussions of food safety in the Korean language. Given the irregularity of keyword use in most tweets, we focus on optimistic machine-learning and feature set selection to classify collected tweets. We build the classifier model using Naive Bayes & Naive Bayes Multinomial, Support Vector Machine, and Decision Tree Algorithms, all of which show good performance. To select an optimum feature set, we construct a basic feature set as a standard for performance comparison, so that further test feature sets can be evaluated. Experiments show that precision and F-measure performance are best when using a Naive Bayes Multinomial classifier model with a test feature set defined by extracting Substantive, Predicate, Modifier, and Interjection parts of speech.

  13. Energy consumption and economic growth—New evidence from meta analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Ping-Yu; Chen, Sheng-Tung; Chen, Chi-Chung

    2012-01-01

    The causal relationships between energy consumption and economic growth have given rise to much discussion but remain controversial. Alternative data sets based on different time spans, countries, energy policies and econometric approaches result in diverse outcomes. A meta analysis using a multinomial logit model with 174 samples governing the relationships between GDP and energy consumption is applied here to investigate the major factors that affect these controversial outcomes. The empirical results have demonstrated how the time spans, subject selections including GDP and energy consumption, econometric models, and tools for greenhouse gases emission reduction characteristics significantly affect these controversial outcomes. - Highlights: ► The controversial casual relationships between energy consumption and GDP are investigated. ► A meta analysis using a multinomial logit model is adopted. ► 74 studies governing the relationships between GDP and energy consumption was collected. ► The empirical results show how the probability of major factors affects such relationships.

  14. Clarification of the use of chi-square and likelihood functions in fits to histograms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baker, S.; Cousins, R.D.

    1984-01-01

    We consider the problem of fitting curves to histograms in which the data obey multinomial or Poisson statistics. Techniques commonly used by physicists are examined in light of standard results found in the statistics literature. We review the relationship between multinomial and Poisson distributions, and clarify a sufficient condition for equality of the area under the fitted curve and the number of events on the histogram. Following the statisticians, we use the likelihood ratio test to construct a general Z 2 statistic, Zsub(lambda) 2 , which yields parameter and error estimates identical to those of the method of maximum likelihood. The Zsub(lambda) 2 statistic is further useful for testing goodness-of-fit since the value of its minimum asymptotically obeys a classical chi-square distribution. One should be aware, however, of the potential for statistical bias, especially when the number of events is small. (orig.)

  15. Disentangling stereotype activation and stereotype application in the stereotype misperception task.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krieglmeyer, Regina; Sherman, Jeffrey W

    2012-08-01

    When forming impressions about other people, stereotypes about the individual's social group often influence the resulting impression. At least 2 distinguishable processes underlie stereotypic impression formation: stereotype activation and stereotype application. Most previous research has used implicit measures to assess stereotype activation and explicit measures to assess stereotype application, which has several disadvantages. The authors propose a measure of stereotypic impression formation, the stereotype misperception task (SMT), together with a multinomial model that quantitatively disentangles the contributions of stereotype activation and application to responses in the SMT. The validity of the SMT and of the multinomial model was confirmed in 5 studies. The authors hope to advance research on stereotyping by providing a measurement tool that separates multiple processes underlying impression formation.

  16. A novel statistical method for classifying habitat generalists and specialists

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chazdon, Robin L; Chao, Anne; Colwell, Robert K

    2011-01-01

    in second-growth (SG) and old-growth (OG) rain forests in the Caribbean lowlands of northeastern Costa Rica. We evaluate the multinomial model in detail for the tree data set. Our results for birds were highly concordant with a previous nonstatistical classification, but our method classified a higher......: (1) generalist; (2) habitat A specialist; (3) habitat B specialist; and (4) too rare to classify with confidence. We illustrate our multinomial classification method using two contrasting data sets: (1) bird abundance in woodland and heath habitats in southeastern Australia and (2) tree abundance...... fraction (57.7%) of bird species with statistical confidence. Based on a conservative specialization threshold and adjustment for multiple comparisons, 64.4% of tree species in the full sample were too rare to classify with confidence. Among the species classified, OG specialists constituted the largest...

  17. Predicting The Type Of Pregnancy Using Flexible Discriminate Analysis And Artificial Neural Networks: A Comparison Study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hooman, A.; Mohammadzadeh, M.

    2008-01-01

    Some medical and epidemiological surveys have been designed to predict a nominal response variable with several levels. With regard to the type of pregnancy there are four possible states: wanted, unwanted by wife, unwanted by husband and unwanted by couple. In this paper, we have predicted the type of pregnancy, as well as the factors influencing it using three different models and comparing them. Regarding the type of pregnancy with several levels, we developed a multinomial logistic regression, a neural network and a flexible discrimination based on the data and compared their results using tow statistical indices: Surface under curve (ROC) and kappa coefficient. Based on these tow indices, flexible discrimination proved to be a better fit for prediction on data in comparison to other methods. When the relations among variables are complex, one can use flexible discrimination instead of multinomial logistic regression and neural network to predict the nominal response variables with several levels in order to gain more accurate predictions

  18. Regression Models For Multivariate Count Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yiwen; Zhou, Hua; Zhou, Jin; Sun, Wei

    2017-01-01

    Data with multivariate count responses frequently occur in modern applications. The commonly used multinomial-logit model is limiting due to its restrictive mean-variance structure. For instance, analyzing count data from the recent RNA-seq technology by the multinomial-logit model leads to serious errors in hypothesis testing. The ubiquity of over-dispersion and complicated correlation structures among multivariate counts calls for more flexible regression models. In this article, we study some generalized linear models that incorporate various correlation structures among the counts. Current literature lacks a treatment of these models, partly due to the fact that they do not belong to the natural exponential family. We study the estimation, testing, and variable selection for these models in a unifying framework. The regression models are compared on both synthetic and real RNA-seq data.

  19. Emotionally enhanced memory for negatively arousing words: storage or retrieval advantage?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nadarevic, Lena

    2017-12-01

    People typically remember emotionally negative words better than neutral words. Two experiments are reported that investigate whether emotionally enhanced memory (EEM) for negatively arousing words is based on a storage or retrieval advantage. Participants studied non-word-word pairs that either involved negatively arousing or neutral target words. Memory for these target words was tested by means of a recognition test and a cued-recall test. Data were analysed with a multinomial model that allows the disentanglement of storage and retrieval processes in the present recognition-then-cued-recall paradigm. In both experiments the multinomial analyses revealed no storage differences between negatively arousing and neutral words but a clear retrieval advantage for negatively arousing words in the cued-recall test. These findings suggest that EEM for negatively arousing words is driven by associative processes.

  20. A measurement theory of illusory conjunctions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prinzmetal, William; Ivry, Richard B; Beck, Diane; Shimizu, Naomi

    2002-04-01

    Illusory conjunctions refer to the incorrect perceptual combination of correctly perceived features, such as color and shape. Research on the phenomenon has been hampered by the lack of a measurement theory that accounts for guessing features, as well as the incorrect combination of correctly perceived features. Recently, several investigators have suggested using multinomial models as a tool for measuring feature integration. The authors examined the adequacy of these models in 2 experiments by testing whether model parameters reflect changes in stimulus factors. In a third experiment, confidence ratings were used as a tool for testing the model. Multinomial models accurately reflected both variations in stimulus factors and observers' trial-by-trial confidence ratings.

  1. TAFV Alternative Fuels and Vehicles Choice Model Documentation; TOPICAL

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Greene, D.L.

    2001-01-01

    A model for predicting choice of alternative fuel and among alternative vehicle technologies for light-duty motor vehicles is derived. The nested multinomial logit (NML) mathematical framework is used. Calibration of the model is based on information in the existing literature and deduction based on assuming a small number of key parameters, such as the value of time and discount rates. A spreadsheet model has been developed for calibration and preliminary testing of the model

  2. Effect of Advertising on the Brand Loyalty of Cosmetic Products among College Students

    OpenAIRE

    Ababio, Abraham Gyamfi; Yamoah, Emmanuel Erastus

    2016-01-01

    This study explored the relationship between advertising and brand loyalty of cosmetic products. The multinomial logit model was used to ascertain the effect of advertising on different loyalty profiles for cosmetic products among college students. Based on a survey of 200 Ghanaian students drawn randomly, findings indicated that advertising plays no significant role on college students’ loyalty for cosmetic products. It can be argued, however, that the most promiscuous buyer is more amenable...

  3. The Cognitive Processes Underlying Event-Based Prospective Memory In School Age Children and Young Adults: A Formal Model-Based Study

    OpenAIRE

    Smith, Rebekah E.; Bayen, Ute Johanna; Martin, Claudia

    2010-01-01

    Fifty 7-year-olds (29 female), 53 10-year-olds (29 female), and 36 young adults (19 female), performed a computerized event-based prospective memory task. All three groups differed significantly in prospective memory performance with adults showing the best performance and 7-year-olds the poorest performance. We used a formal multinomial process tree model of event-based prospective memory to decompose age differences in cognitive processes that jointly contribute to prospective memory perfor...

  4. Livelihood strategies, environmental dependency and rural poverty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Walelign, Solomon Zena

    2016-01-01

    This article attempts to explore the nexus between rural households’ environmental dependency, poverty and livelihood strategies. Households’ income from each livelihood activities formed the basis for categorizing households according to livelihood strategies. The principal component analysis...... of livelihood choice were analyzed using multinomial logit model. The results indicate the existence of marked differences in environmental dependency, rural poverty and asset endowments across the livelihood groups. Household’s total saving, access to credit, production implements, business cost, exposure...

  5. A hipótese de Cressey (1953) e a investigação da ocorrência de fraudes corporativas: uma análise empírica em instituições bancárias brasileiras

    OpenAIRE

    Machado, Michele Rílany Rodrigues; Gartner, Ivan Ricardo

    2017-01-01

    ABSTRACT This article fills a technical-scientific gap that currently exists in the Brazilian literature on corporative fraud, by combining the theoretical framework of agency theory, of criminology, and of the economics of crime. In addition, it focuses on a sector that is usually excluded from analyses due to its specific characteristics and shows the application of multinomial logit panel data regression with random effects, which is rarely used in studies in the area of accounting. The ai...

  6. The Cressey hypothesis (1953) and an investigation into the occurrence of corporate fraud: an empirical analysis conducted in Brazilian banking institutions

    OpenAIRE

    Michele Rílany Rodrigues Machado; Ivan Ricardo Gartner

    2017-01-01

    ABSTRACT This article fills a technical-scientific gap that currently exists in the Brazilian literature on corporative fraud, by combining the theoretical framework of agency theory, of criminology, and of the economics of crime. In addition, it focuses on a sector that is usually excluded from analyses due to its specific characteristics and shows the application of multinomial logit panel data regression with random effects, which is rarely used in studies in the area of accounting. The ai...

  7. Characteristics of Sexually Active Teenage Girls Who Would Be Pleased with Becoming Pregnant

    OpenAIRE

    Cavazos-Rehg, Patricia A.; Krauss, Melissa J.; Spitznagel, Edward L.; Schootman, Mario; Cottler, Linda B.; Bierut, Laura Jean

    2013-01-01

    To investigate factors associated with favorable pregnancy attitudes among teenage girls. Participants were sexually active teenage girls aged 15–18 years old (n = 965) who took part in the 2002 or 2006–2010 National Survey of Family Growth (NSFG). Multinomial multivariable logistic regression was used to assess the likelihood of being pleased with a teenage pregnancy. Sixteen percent of sexually active teenage girls (n = 164) would be pleased (11 % a little pleased, 5 % very pleased) if they...

  8. Isolated and Skeptical: Social Engagement and Trust in Information Sources Among Smokers

    OpenAIRE

    Finney Rutten, Lila J.; Blake, Kelly; Hesse, Bradford W.; Ackerson, Leland K.

    2011-01-01

    Our study compared indicators of social engagement and trust among current, former, and never smokers. Multinomial regression analyses of data from the 2005 U.S. Health Information National Trends Survey (n=5586) were conducted to identify independent associations between social engagement, trust in health information sources, and smoking status. Never smokers (odds ratio (OR)=2.08) and former smokers (OR=2.48) were significantly more likely to belong to community organizations than current s...

  9. A generalization of the q-Saalschutz sum and the Burge transform

    OpenAIRE

    Schilling, A.; Warnaar, S. O.

    1999-01-01

    A generalization of the q-(Pfaff)-Saalschutz summation formula is proved. This implies a generalization of the Burge transform, resulting in an additional dimension of the ``Burge tree''. Limiting cases of our summation formula imply the (higher-level) Bailey lemma, provide a new decomposition of the q-multinomial coefficients, and can be used to prove the Lepowsky and Primc formula for the A_1^{(1)} string functions.

  10. Work-Family Conflict and Retirement Preferences

    OpenAIRE

    Raymo, James M.; Sweeney, Megan M

    2005-01-01

    Objectives: This study investigates relationships between perceived levels of work-family conflict and retirement preferences. Methods: Using the large sample of 52-54 year-old respondents to the 1992 Wisconsin Longitudinal Study, we estimate multinomial logistic regression models of preferences for partial and full retirement within the next ten years. We examine the association between preferences for retirement and perceived work-family conflict...

  11. The impact of the residential built environment on work at home adoption frequency: An example from Northern California

    OpenAIRE

    Tang, Wei (Laura); Mokhtarian, Patricia L.; Handy, Susan L.

    2011-01-01

    Working at home is widely viewed as a useful travel-reduction strategy, and it is partly for that reason that considerable research related to telecommuting and home-based work has been conducted in the last two decades. This study examines the effect of residential neighborhood built environment (BE) factors on working at home. After systematically presenting and categorizing various relevant elements of the BE and reviewing related studies, we develop a multinomial logit (MNL) model of work...

  12. The Role of Neighborhood Characteristics in the Adoption and Frequency of Working at Home: Empirical Evidence from Northern California

    OpenAIRE

    Tang, Wei; Mokhtarian, Patricia; Handy, Susan

    2008-01-01

    Working at home is widely viewed as a useful travel-reduction strategy, and partly for that reason, considerable research related to telecommuting and home-based work has been conducted in the last two decades. The contribution of this study is to examine the effect of residential neighborhood built environment (BE) factors on working at home. Using data from a survey of eight neighborhoods in Northern California, we develop a multinomial logit (MNL) model of work-at-home (WAH) frequency. Pot...

  13. Generalizing the Iterative Proportional Fitting Procedure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1980-04-01

    Csiszar gives conditions under which P (R) exists (it is always unique) and develops a geometry of I-divergence by using an analogue of Pythagoras ...8217 Theorem . As our goal is to study maximum likelihood estimation in contingency tables, we turn briefly to the problem of estimating a multinomial...envoke a result of Csiszir (due originally to Kullback (1959)), giving the form of the density of the I-projection. Csiszar’s Theorem 3.1, which we

  14. Conceptual and perceptual factors in the picture superiority effect

    OpenAIRE

    Stenberg, Georg

    2006-01-01

    The picture superiority effect, i.e. better memory for pictures than for corresponding words, has been variously ascribed to a conceptual or a perceptual processing advantage. The present study aimed to disentangle perceptual and conceptual contributions. Pictures and words were tested for recognition in both their original formats and translated into participants´ second language. Multinomial Processing Tree (Batchelder & Riefer, 1999) and MINERVA (Hintzman, 1984) models were fitted to t...

  15. Climate Change Adaptation via U.S. Land Use Transitions: A Spatial Econometric Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Cho, Sung Ju; McCarl, Bruce A.; Wu, Ximing

    2015-01-01

    Climate change, coupled with biofuels development and other factors may well be changing US land usage patterns. We use a spatial econometric approach to estimate the drivers of US land use transitions in recent years. We consider transitions between six major land uses: agricultural land, forest, grassland, water, urban, and other uses. To examine drivers, we use a two-step linearized, spatial, multinomial logit model and estimate land use transition probabilities. Our results indicate that ...

  16. Linking apple farmers to markets: Determinants and impacts of marketing contracts in China

    OpenAIRE

    Ma, Wanglin; Abdulai, Awudu

    2015-01-01

    This study investigates the determinants of marketing contract choices and the related impact on farm net returns of apple farmers in China. We employ a two-stage selection correction approach (BFG) for the multinomial logit model. On the basis of the BFG estimation, we also use an endogenous switching regression model and a propensity score matching technique to estimate the causal effects of marketing contract choices on net returns. The empirical results reveal that written contracts incre...

  17. Authorship attribution and author profiling of Lithuanian literary texts

    OpenAIRE

    Kapočiūtė-Dzikienė, Jurgita; Utka, Andrius; Šarkutė, Ligita

    2015-01-01

    In this work we are solving authorship attribution and author profiling tasks (by focusing on the age and gender dimensions) for the Lithuanian language. This paper reports the first results on literary texts, which we compared to the results, previously obtained with different functional styles and language types (i.e., parliamentary transcripts and forum posts). Using the Naïve Bayes Multinomial and Support Vector Machine methods we investigated an impact of...

  18. Benefits of improved water quality: a discrete choice analysis of freshwater recreational demands

    OpenAIRE

    R S Tay; P S McCarthy

    1994-01-01

    Discrete choice methodologies are increasingly being used to estimate multiple-sites recreational demands and evaluate the welfare effects of alternative environmental policies aimed at water quality improvements. In this study the authors use 1985 data on Indiana anglers to estimate a multinomial logit model of destination choice and compute the benefits of alternative water quality improvements. In general, the results indicate that anglers are reasonably sensitive to changes in water quali...

  19. Direct Marketing Promotion and Electronic Cigarette Use Among US Adults, National Adult Tobacco Survey, 2013–2014

    OpenAIRE

    Dai, Hongying; Hao, Jianqiang

    2017-01-01

    Introduction The use of electronic cigarettes (e-cigarettes) among US adults has increased since 2007. The objective of this study was to investigate the prevalence of direct marketing promotion of e-cigarettes and its association with e-cigarette use among US adults. Methods We used using data from the 2013–2014 National Adult Tobacco Survey (NATS) to estimate prevalence of e-cigarette promotions received by mail or email. Multinomial logistic regression was used to examine the associations ...

  20. The Pattern of Fatty Acids Displaced by EPA and DHA Following 12 Months Supplementation Varies between Blood Cell and Plasma Fractions

    OpenAIRE

    Walker, Celia G.; West, Annette L.; Browning, Lucy M.; Madden, Jackie; Gambell, Joanna M.; Jebb, Susan A.; Calder, Philip C.

    2015-01-01

    Eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA) and docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) are increased in plasma lipids and blood cell membranes in response to supplementation. Whilst arachidonic acid (AA) is correspondingly decreased, the effect on other fatty acids (FA) is less well described and there may be site-specific differences. In response to 12 months EPA + DHA supplementation in doses equivalent to 0–4 portions of oily fish/week (1 portion: 3.27 g EPA+DHA) multinomial regression analysis was used to identify...