WorldWideScience

Sample records for multinomial logits

  1. Interpreting Results from the Multinomial Logit Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wulff, Jesper

    2015-01-01

    This article provides guidelines and illustrates practical steps necessary for an analysis of results from the multinomial logit model (MLM). The MLM is a popular model in the strategy literature because it allows researchers to examine strategic choices with multiple outcomes. However, there see...... suitable for both interpretation and communication of results. The pratical steps are illustrated through an application of the MLM to the choice of foreign market entry mode.......This article provides guidelines and illustrates practical steps necessary for an analysis of results from the multinomial logit model (MLM). The MLM is a popular model in the strategy literature because it allows researchers to examine strategic choices with multiple outcomes. However, there seem...... to be systematic issues with regard to how researchers interpret their results when using the MLM. In this study, I present a set of guidelines critical to analyzing and interpreting results from the MLM. The procedure involves intuitive graphical representations of predicted probabilities and marginal effects...

  2. Interpreting Marginal Effects in the Multinomial Logit Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wulff, Jesper

    2014-01-01

    with a substantial increase in the probability of entering a foreign market using a joint venture, while increases in the unpredictability in the host country environment are associated with a lower probability of wholly owned subsidiaries and a higher probability of exporting entries....... that have entered foreign markets. Through the application of a multinomial logit model, careful analysis of the marginal effects is performed through graphical representations, marginal effects at the mean, average marginal effects and elasticities. I show that increasing cultural distance is associated......This paper presents the challenges when researchers interpret results about relationships between variables from discrete choice models with multiple outcomes. The recommended approach is demonstrated by testing predictions from transaction cost theory on a sample of 246 Scandinavian firms...

  3. An Empirical Analysis of Television Commercial Ratings in Alternative Competitive Environments Using Multinomial Logit Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dilek ALTAŞ

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Watching the commercials depends on the choice of the viewer. Most of the television viewing takes place during “Prime-Time” unfortunately; many viewers opt to zap to other channels when commercials start. The television viewers’ demographic characteristics may indicate the likelihood of the zapping frequency. Analysis made by using Multinomial Logit Model indicates how effective the demographic variables are in the watching rate of the first minute of the television commercials.

  4. Predicting longitudinal trajectories of health probabilities with random-effects multinomial logit regression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Xian; Engel, Charles C

    2012-12-20

    Researchers often encounter longitudinal health data characterized with three or more ordinal or nominal categories. Random-effects multinomial logit models are generally applied to account for potential lack of independence inherent in such clustered data. When parameter estimates are used to describe longitudinal processes, however, random effects, both between and within individuals, need to be retransformed for correctly predicting outcome probabilities. This study attempts to go beyond existing work by developing a retransformation method that derives longitudinal growth trajectories of unbiased health probabilities. We estimated variances of the predicted probabilities by using the delta method. Additionally, we transformed the covariates' regression coefficients on the multinomial logit function, not substantively meaningful, to the conditional effects on the predicted probabilities. The empirical illustration uses the longitudinal data from the Asset and Health Dynamics among the Oldest Old. Our analysis compared three sets of the predicted probabilities of three health states at six time points, obtained from, respectively, the retransformation method, the best linear unbiased prediction, and the fixed-effects approach. The results demonstrate that neglect of retransforming random errors in the random-effects multinomial logit model results in severely biased longitudinal trajectories of health probabilities as well as overestimated effects of covariates on the probabilities. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  5. The consumer’s choice among television displays: A multinomial logit approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos Giovanni González Espitia

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available The consumer’s choice over a bundle of products depends on observable and unobservable characteristics of goods and consumers. This choice is made in order to maximize utility subject to a budget constraint. At the same time, firms make product differentiation decisions to maximize profit. Quality is a form of differentiation. An example of this occurs in the TV market, where several displays are developed. Our objective is to determine the probability for a consumer of choosing a type of display from among five kinds: standard tube, LCD, plasma, projection and LED. Using a multinomial logit approach, we find that electronic appliances like DVDs and audio systems, as well as socioeconomic status, increase the probability of choosing a high-tech television display. Our empirical approximation contributes to further understanding rational consumer behavior through the theory of utility maximization and highlights the importance of studying market structure and analyzing changes in welfare and efficiency.

  6. Analysis of the liquidity risk in credit unions: a logit multinomial approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rosiane Maria Lima Gonçalves

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available Liquidity risk in financial institutions is associated to balance between working capital and financial demands. Other factors that affect credit union liquidity are an unanticipated increase of withdrawals without an offsetting amount of new deposits, and the lack of ability in promoting the product geographical diversification. The objective of this study is to analyze Minas Gerais state credit union liquidity risk and its factor determinants. Financial ratios and the multinomial logit model are used. The cooperatives were classified in five categories of liquidity risk: very low, low, medium, high and very high. The empirical results indicate that high levels of liquidity are related to smaller values of the outsourcing capital use, immobilization of the turnover capital, and provision ratios. So, they are associated to larger values of the deposit total/credit operations, and asset growth ratios.

  7. Model-based Clustering of Categorical Time Series with Multinomial Logit Classification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frühwirth-Schnatter, Sylvia; Pamminger, Christoph; Winter-Ebmer, Rudolf; Weber, Andrea

    2010-09-01

    A common problem in many areas of applied statistics is to identify groups of similar time series in a panel of time series. However, distance-based clustering methods cannot easily be extended to time series data, where an appropriate distance-measure is rather difficult to define, particularly for discrete-valued time series. Markov chain clustering, proposed by Pamminger and Frühwirth-Schnatter [6], is an approach for clustering discrete-valued time series obtained by observing a categorical variable with several states. This model-based clustering method is based on finite mixtures of first-order time-homogeneous Markov chain models. In order to further explain group membership we present an extension to the approach of Pamminger and Frühwirth-Schnatter [6] by formulating a probabilistic model for the latent group indicators within the Bayesian classification rule by using a multinomial logit model. The parameters are estimated for a fixed number of clusters within a Bayesian framework using an Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling scheme representing a (full) Gibbs-type sampler which involves only draws from standard distributions. Finally, an application to a panel of Austrian wage mobility data is presented which leads to an interesting segmentation of the Austrian labour market.

  8. The Market for Ph.D. Holders in Greece: Probit and Multinomial Logit Analysis of their Employment Status

    OpenAIRE

    Joan Daouli; Eirini Konstantina Nikolatou

    2015-01-01

    The objective of this paper is to investigate the factors influencing the probability that a Ph.D. holder in Greece will work in the academic sector, as well as the probability of his or her choosing employment in various sectors of industry and occupational categories. Probit/multinomial logit models are employed using the 2001 Census data. The empirical results indicate that being young, married, having a Ph.D. in Natural Sciences and/or in Engineering, granted by a Greek university, increa...

  9. A dynamic random effects multinomial logit model of household car ownership

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bue Bjørner, Thomas; Leth-Petersen, Søren

    2007-01-01

    Using a large household panel we estimate demand for car ownership by means of a dynamic multinomial model with correlated random effects. Results suggest that the persistence in car ownership observed in the data should be attributed to both true state dependence and to unobserved heterogeneity...... (random effects). It also appears that random effects related to single and multiple car ownership are correlated, suggesting that the IIA assumption employed in simple multinomial models of car ownership is invalid. Relatively small elasticities with respect to income and car costs are estimated...

  10. Recreation Value of Water to Wetlands in the San Joaquin Valley: Linked Multinomial Logit and Count Data Trip Frequency Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Creel, Michael; Loomis, John

    1992-10-01

    The recreational benefits from providing increased quantities of water to wildlife and fisheries habitats is estimated using linked multinomial logit site selection models and count data trip frequency models. The study encompasses waterfowl hunting, fishing and wildlife viewing at 14 recreational resources in the San Joaquin Valley, including the National Wildlife Refuges, the State Wildlife Management Areas, and six river destinations. The economic benefits of increasing water supplies to wildlife refuges were also examined by using the estimated models to predict changing patterns of site selection and overall participation due to increases in water allocations. Estimates of the dollar value per acre foot of water are calculated for increases in water to refuges. The resulting model is a flexible and useful tool for estimating the economic benefits of alternative water allocation policies for wildlife habitat and rivers.

  11. Determination of the Factors Influencing Store Preference in Erzurum by a Multinomial Logit Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hüseyin ÖZER

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available The main objective of this study is to determine factors influencing store preference of the store costumers in Erzurum in terms of some characteristics of the store and its product and costumers’ demographic characteristics (sex, age, marital status, level of education and their income level. In order to carry out this objective, Pearson chi-square test is applied to determine whether there is a relationship between the store preference and customer, stores, and some characteristics of products and a multinominal logit model is fitted by stepwise regression method to the cross-section data compiled from a questionnaire applied to 384 store costumers in the center of Erzurum province. According to the model estimation and test results, the variables of marital status (married, education (primary and cheapness (unimportant for Migros; education (middle for Özmar and marital status (married for the other stores are determined as statistically significant at the level of 5 percent

  12. Work Intensity of Households: Multinomial Logit Analysis and Correspondence Analysis for Slovak Republic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erik Šoltés

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Exclusion from the labour market is a serious social problem that is also addressed by the Europe 2020 strategy. While in the past the attention of statisticians and sociologists in the fight against poverty and social exclusion has concentrated mainly on income poverty and material deprivation, in recent times many studies and analyses are much more focused on work intensity as well. Households that use their work potential to less than 20%, have a very low work intensity, and members of such households are included into the population of people who are at risk of poverty or social exclusion. Moreover, the low use of labour potential of households significantly increases the risk of income poverty and the threat of material deprivation. This article provides an analysis of work intensity levels of Slovak households depending on the factors that are monitored by the EU-SILC 2015. The impact of relevant factors is quantified by correspondence analysis and by multinomial logistic regression model.

  13. An econometric analysis of changes in arable land utilization using multinomial logit model in Pinggu district, Beijing, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Yueqing; McNamara, Paul; Wu, Yanfang; Dong, Yue

    2013-10-15

    Arable land in China has been decreasing as a result of rapid population growth and economic development as well as urban expansion, especially in developed regions around cities where quality farmland quickly disappears. This paper analyzed changes in arable land utilization during 1993-2008 in the Pinggu district, Beijing, China, developed a multinomial logit (MNL) model to determine spatial driving factors influencing arable land-use change, and simulated arable land transition probabilities. Land-use maps, as well as social-economic and geographical data were used in the study. The results indicated that arable land decreased significantly between 1993 and 2008. Lost arable land shifted into orchard, forestland, settlement, and transportation land. Significant differences existed for arable land transitions among different landform areas. Slope, elevation, population density, urbanization rate, distance to settlements, and distance to roadways were strong drivers influencing arable land transition to other uses. The MNL model was proved effective for predicting transition probabilities in land use from arable land to other land-use types, thus can be used for scenario analysis to develop land-use policies and land-management measures in this metropolitan area. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Exploratory multinomial logit model-based driver injury severity analyses for teenage and adult drivers in intersection-related crashes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Qiong; Zhang, Guohui; Ci, Yusheng; Wu, Lina; Tarefder, Rafiqul A; Alcántara, Adélamar Dely

    2016-05-18

    Teenage drivers are more likely to be involved in severely incapacitating and fatal crashes compared to adult drivers. Moreover, because two thirds of urban vehicle miles traveled are on signal-controlled roadways, significant research efforts are needed to investigate intersection-related teenage driver injury severities and their contributing factors in terms of driver behavior, vehicle-infrastructure interactions, environmental characteristics, roadway geometric features, and traffic compositions. Therefore, this study aims to explore the characteristic differences between teenage and adult drivers in intersection-related crashes, identify the significant contributing attributes, and analyze their impacts on driver injury severities. Using crash data collected in New Mexico from 2010 to 2011, 2 multinomial logit regression models were developed to analyze injury severities for teenage and adult drivers, respectively. Elasticity analyses and transferability tests were conducted to better understand the quantitative impacts of these factors and the teenage driver injury severity model's generality. The results showed that although many of the same contributing factors were found to be significant in the both teenage and adult driver models, certain different attributes must be distinguished to specifically develop effective safety solutions for the 2 driver groups. The research findings are helpful to better understand teenage crash uniqueness and develop cost-effective solutions to reduce intersection-related teenage injury severities and facilitate driver injury mitigation research.

  15. Sequential and Simultaneous Logit: A Nested Model.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Ophem, J.C.M.; Schram, A.J.H.C.

    1997-01-01

    A nested model is presented which has both the sequential and the multinomial logit model as special cases. This model provides a simple test to investigate the validity of these specifications. Some theoretical properties of the model are discussed. In the analysis a distribution function is

  16. and Multinomial Logistic Regression

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This work presented the results of an experimental comparison of two models: Multinomial Logistic Regression (MLR) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) for classifying students based on their academic performance. The predictive accuracy for each model was measured by their average Classification Correct Rate (CCR).

  17. Interpreting and Understanding Logits, Probits, and other Non-Linear Probability Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Breen, Richard; Karlson, Kristian Bernt; Holm, Anders

    2018-01-01

    Methods textbooks in sociology and other social sciences routinely recommend the use of the logit or probit model when an outcome variable is binary, an ordered logit or ordered probit when it is ordinal, and a multinomial logit when it has more than two categories. But these methodological...... guidelines take little or no account of a body of work that, over the past 30 years, has pointed to problematic aspects of these nonlinear probability models and, particularly, to difficulties in interpreting their parameters. In this chapterreview, we draw on that literature to explain the problems, show...

  18. Comparison of multinomial and binomial proportion methods for analysis of multinomial count data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galyean, M L; Wester, D B

    2010-10-01

    Simulation methods were used to generate 1,000 experiments, each with 3 treatments and 10 experimental units/treatment, in completely randomized (CRD) and randomized complete block designs. Data were counts in 3 ordered or 4 nominal categories from multinomial distributions. For the 3-category analyses, category probabilities were 0.6, 0.3, and 0.1, respectively, for 2 of the treatments, and 0.5, 0.35, and 0.15 for the third treatment. In the 4-category analysis (CRD only), probabilities were 0.3, 0.3, 0.2, and 0.2 for treatments 1 and 2 vs. 0.4, 0.4, 0.1, and 0.1 for treatment 3. The 3-category data were analyzed with generalized linear mixed models as an ordered multinomial distribution with a cumulative logit link or by regrouping the data (e.g., counts in 1 category/sum of counts in all categories), followed by analysis of single categories as binomial proportions. Similarly, the 4-category data were analyzed as a nominal multinomial distribution with a glogit link or by grouping data as binomial proportions. For the 3-category CRD analyses, empirically determined type I error rates based on pair-wise comparisons (F- and Wald chi(2) tests) did not differ between multinomial and individual binomial category analyses with 10 (P = 0.38 to 0.60) or 50 (P = 0.19 to 0.67) sampling units/experimental unit. When analyzed as binomial proportions, power estimates varied among categories, with analysis of the category with the greatest counts yielding power similar to the multinomial analysis. Agreement between methods (percentage of experiments with the same results for the overall test for treatment effects) varied considerably among categories analyzed and sampling unit scenarios for the 3-category CRD analyses. Power (F-test) was 24.3, 49.1, 66.9, 83.5, 86.8, and 99.7% for 10, 20, 30, 40, 50, and 100 sampling units/experimental unit for the 3-category multinomial CRD analyses. Results with randomized complete block design simulations were similar to those with the CRD

  19. Modeling a Multinomial Logit Model of Intercity Travel Mode Choice Behavior for All Trips in Libya

    OpenAIRE

    Manssour A. Abdulsalam Bin Miskeen; Ahmed Mohamed Alhodairi; Riza Atiq Abdullah Bin O. K. Rahmat

    2013-01-01

    In the planning point of view, it is essential to have mode choice, due to the massive amount of incurred in transportation systems. The intercity travellers in Libya have distinct features, as against travellers from other countries, which includes cultural and socioeconomic factors. Consequently, the goal of this study is to recognize the behavior of intercity travel using disaggregate models, for projecting the demand of nation-level intercity travel in Libya. Multinom...

  20. Identifying response styles: A latent-class bilinear multinomial logit model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Rosmalen, J.; van Herk, H.; Groenen, P.J.F.

    2010-01-01

    Respondents can vary strongly in the way they use rating scales. Specifically, respondents can exhibit a variety of response styles, which threatens the validity of the responses. The purpose of this article Is to investigate how response style and content of the items affect rating scale responses.

  1. Wage mobility in Europe. A comparative analysis using restricted multinomial logit regression

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pavlopoulos, D.; Muffels, R.; Vermunt, J.K.

    2010-01-01

    In this paper, we investigate cross-country differences in wage mobility in Europe using the European Community Household Panel. The paper is particularly focused on examining the impact of economic conditions, welfare state regimes and employment regulation on wage mobility. We apply a log-linear

  2. Generalized Partial Least Squares Approach for Nominal Multinomial Logit Regression Models with a Functional Covariate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albaqshi, Amani Mohammed H.

    2017-01-01

    Functional Data Analysis (FDA) has attracted substantial attention for the last two decades. Within FDA, classifying curves into two or more categories is consistently of interest to scientists, but multi-class prediction within FDA is challenged in that most classification tools have been limited to binary response applications. The functional…

  3. A Multinomial Logit Approach to Estimating Regional Inventories by Product Class

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawrence Teeter; Xiaoping Zhou

    1998-01-01

    Current timber inventory projections generally lack information on inventory by product classes. Most models available for inventory projection and linked to supply analyses are limited to projecting aggregate softwood and hardwood. The objective of this research is to develop a methodology to distribute the volume on each FIA survey plot to product classes and...

  4. Mixed multinomial logit model for out-of-home leisure activity choice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Grigolon, A.B.; Kemperman, A.D.A.M.; Timmermans, H.J.P.

    2013-01-01

    This paper documents the design and results of a study on the factors influencing the choice of out-of-home leisure activities. Influencing factors seem related to socio-demographic characteristics, personal preferences, characteristics of the built environment and other aspects of the activities

  5. INCLUSION OF THE LATENT PERSONALITY VARIABLE IN MULTINOMIAL LOGIT MODELS USING THE 16PF PSYCHOMETRIC TEST

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    JORGE E. CÓRDOBA MAQUILÓN

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Los modelos de demanda de viajes utilizan principalmente los atributos modales y las características socioeconómicas como variables explicativas. También se ha establecido que las actitudes y percepciones influyen en el comportamiento de los usuarios. Sin embargo, las variables psicológicas del individuo condicionan la conducta del usuario. En este estudio se incluyó la variable latente personalidad, en la estimación del modelo híbrido de elección discreta, el cual constituye una buena alternativa para incorporar los efectos de los factores subjetivos. La variable latente personalidad se evaluó con la prueba psicométrica 16PF de validez internacional. El artículo analiza los resultados de la aplicación de este modelo a una población de empleados y docentes universitarios, y también propone un camino para la utilización de pruebas psicométricas en los modelos híbridos de elección discreta. Nuestros resultados muestran que los modelos híbridos que incluyen variables latentes psicológicas son superiores a los modelos tradicionales que ignoran los efectos de la conducta de los usuarios.

  6. Reasons for not buying a car : a probit-selection multinomial logit choice model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gao, Y.; Rasouli, S.; Timmermans, H.J.P.

    2014-01-01

    Generating and maintaining gradients of cell density and extracellular matrix (ECM) components is a prerequisite for the development of functionality of healthy tissue. Therefore, gaining insights into the drivers of spatial organization of cells and the role of ECM during tissue morphogenesis is

  7. Identifying Unknown Response Styles: A Latent-Class Bilinear Multinomial Logit Model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J.M. van Rosmalen (Joost); H. van Herk (Hester); P.J.F. Groenen (Patrick)

    2007-01-01

    textabstractRespondents can vary significantly in the way they use rating scales. Specifically, respondents can exhibit varying degrees of response style, which threatens the validity of the responses. The purpose of this article is to investigate to what extent rating scale responses show response

  8. FORMULASI MODEL PERMUTASI SIKLIS DENGAN OBJEK MULTINOMIAL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sukma Adi Perdana

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Penelitian ini bertujuan membangun model matematika untuk menghitung jumlah susunan objek dari permutasi siklis yang memiliki objek multinomial. Model yang dibangun dibatasi untuk permutasi siklis yang memiliki objek multinomial dengan minimal ada satu jenis objek beranggotakan tunggal. Pemodelan dilakukan berdasarkan struktur matematika dari permutasi siklis dan permutasi multinomial. Model permutasi siklis yang memiliki objek multinomial telah dirumuskan.   Pembuktian model telah dilakukan melalui validasi struktur serta validasi hasil yang dilakukan dengan cara membandingkan hasil perhitungan model dan hasil pencacahan. Teorema tentang permutasi siklis dengan objek multinomial juga telah dibangun. Kata kunci:  pemodelan , permutasi siklis, permutasi multinomial This study aims at constructing mathematical model to count the number of arrangement of objects form cyclical permutation that has multinomial objects. The model constructed is limited to cyclical permutation that has multinomial object in which at least one kind of object having single cardinality is contained within. Modelling is undertaken based on mathematical structure of cyclical permutation and multinomial permutation. Cyclical permutation model having multinomial object has been formulated as . The proof of the model has been undertaken by validating structure and validating the outcome which was conducted by comparing counting result of model and counting result manually. The theorem of cyclical permutation with multinomial object has also been developed. Keywords: modelling, cyclical permutation, multinomial permutation

  9. A comparison of generalized multinomial logit, random parameters logit, wtp-space and latent class models to studying consumers' preferences for animal welfare

    OpenAIRE

    Kallas, Zein; Borrisser-Pairó,, Francesc; Martínez, Beatriz; Vieira, Ceferina; Panella-Riera, Nuria; Olivar, Maria Angels; Gil Roig, José María

    2016-01-01

    The European societies are requiring that animals to be raised as closely as possible to their natural conditions. The growing concerns about animal welfare is resulting in continuous modifications of regulations and policies that led to ban of a number of intensive farming methods. The European authorities consider the pig welfare as a priority issue. They are studying to ban surgical pig castration by 2018, which may seriously affect markets and consumers due to boar tainted-meat. This stud...

  10. Parameter identification in multinomial processing tree models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schmittmann, V.D.; Dolan, C.V.; Raijmakers, M.E.J.; Batchelder, W.H.

    2010-01-01

    Multinomial processing tree models form a popular class of statistical models for categorical data that have applications in various areas of psychological research. As in all statistical models, establishing which parameters are identified is necessary for model inference and selection on the basis

  11. Street Choice Logit Model for Visitors in Shopping Districts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ko Kawada

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available In this study, we propose two models for predicting people’s activity. The first model is the pedestrian distribution prediction (or postdiction model by multiple regression analysis using space syntax indices of urban fabric and people distribution data obtained from a field survey. The second model is a street choice model for visitors using multinomial logit model. We performed a questionnaire survey on the field to investigate the strolling routes of 46 visitors and obtained a total of 1211 street choices in their routes. We proposed a utility function, sum of weighted space syntax indices, and other indices, and estimated the parameters for weights on the basis of maximum likelihood. These models consider both street networks, distance from destination, direction of the street choice and other spatial compositions (numbers of pedestrians, cars, shops, and elevation. The first model explains the characteristics of the street where many people tend to walk or stay. The second model explains the mechanism underlying the street choice of visitors and clarifies the differences in the weights of street choice parameters among the various attributes, such as gender, existence of destinations, number of people, etc. For all the attributes considered, the influences of DISTANCE and DIRECTION are strong. On the other hand, the influences of Int.V, SHOPS, CARS, ELEVATION, and WIDTH are different for each attribute. People with defined destinations tend to choose streets that “have more shops, and are wider and lower”. In contrast, people with undefined destinations tend to choose streets of high Int.V. The choice of males is affected by Int.V, SHOPS, WIDTH (positive and CARS (negative. Females prefer streets that have many shops, and couples tend to choose downhill streets. The behavior of individual persons is affected by all variables. The behavior of people visiting in groups is affected by SHOP and WIDTH (positive.

  12. Street Choice Logit Model for Visitors in Shopping Districts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kawada, Ko; Yamada, Takashi; Kishimoto, Tatsuya

    2014-01-01

    In this study, we propose two models for predicting people’s activity. The first model is the pedestrian distribution prediction (or postdiction) model by multiple regression analysis using space syntax indices of urban fabric and people distribution data obtained from a field survey. The second model is a street choice model for visitors using multinomial logit model. We performed a questionnaire survey on the field to investigate the strolling routes of 46 visitors and obtained a total of 1211 street choices in their routes. We proposed a utility function, sum of weighted space syntax indices, and other indices, and estimated the parameters for weights on the basis of maximum likelihood. These models consider both street networks, distance from destination, direction of the street choice and other spatial compositions (numbers of pedestrians, cars, shops, and elevation). The first model explains the characteristics of the street where many people tend to walk or stay. The second model explains the mechanism underlying the street choice of visitors and clarifies the differences in the weights of street choice parameters among the various attributes, such as gender, existence of destinations, number of people, etc. For all the attributes considered, the influences of DISTANCE and DIRECTION are strong. On the other hand, the influences of Int.V, SHOPS, CARS, ELEVATION, and WIDTH are different for each attribute. People with defined destinations tend to choose streets that “have more shops, and are wider and lower”. In contrast, people with undefined destinations tend to choose streets of high Int.V. The choice of males is affected by Int.V, SHOPS, WIDTH (positive) and CARS (negative). Females prefer streets that have many shops, and couples tend to choose downhill streets. The behavior of individual persons is affected by all variables. The behavior of people visiting in groups is affected by SHOP and WIDTH (positive). PMID:25379274

  13. A multinomial-logit ordered-probit model for jointly analyzing crash avoidance maneuvers and crash severity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaplan, Sigal; Prato, Carlo Giacomo

    ' propensity to engage in various corrective maneuvers in the case of the critical event of vehicle travelling. Five lateral and speed control maneuvers are considered: “braking”, “steering”, “braking & steering”, and “other maneuvers”, in addition to a “no action” option. The analyzed data are retrieved from...... the United States National Automotive Sampling System General Estimates System (GES) crash database for the years 2005-2009. Results show (i) the correlation between crash avoidance maneuvers and crash severity, and (ii) the link between drivers' attributes, risky driving behavior, road characteristics...

  14. Environmental regulations and plant exit: A logit analysis based on established panel data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bioern, E; Golombek, R; Raknerud, A

    1995-12-01

    This publication uses a model to study the relationship between environmental regulations and plant exit. It has the main characteristics of a multinomial qualitative response model of the logit type, but also has elements of a Markov chain model. The model uses Norwegian panel data for establishments in three manufacturing sectors with high shares of units which have been under strict environmental regulations. In two of the sectors, the exit probability of non-regulated establishments is about three times higher than for regulated ones. It is also found that the probability of changing regulation status from non-regulated to regulated depends significantly on economic factors. In particular, establishments with weak profitability are the most likely to become subject to environmental regulation. 12 refs., 2 figs., 6 tabs.

  15. Multinomial logistic regression in workers' health

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grilo, Luís M.; Grilo, Helena L.; Gonçalves, Sónia P.; Junça, Ana

    2017-11-01

    In European countries, namely in Portugal, it is common to hear some people mentioning that they are exposed to excessive and continuous psychosocial stressors at work. This is increasing in diverse activity sectors, such as, the Services sector. A representative sample was collected from a Portuguese Services' organization, by applying a survey (internationally validated), which variables were measured in five ordered categories in Likert-type scale. A multinomial logistic regression model is used to estimate the probability of each category of the dependent variable general health perception where, among other independent variables, burnout appear as statistically significant.

  16. A Multinomial Probit Model with Latent Factors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Piatek, Rémi; Gensowski, Miriam

    2017-01-01

    be meaningfully linked to an economic model. We provide sufficient conditions that make this structure identified and interpretable. For inference, we design a Markov chain Monte Carlo sampler based on marginal data augmentation. A simulation exercise shows the good numerical performance of our sampler......We develop a parametrization of the multinomial probit model that yields greater insight into the underlying decision-making process, by decomposing the error terms of the utilities into latent factors and noise. The latent factors are identified without a measurement system, and they can...

  17. Implicit moral evaluations: A multinomial modeling approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cameron, C Daryl; Payne, B Keith; Sinnott-Armstrong, Walter; Scheffer, Julian A; Inzlicht, Michael

    2017-01-01

    Implicit moral evaluations-i.e., immediate, unintentional assessments of the wrongness of actions or persons-play a central role in supporting moral behavior in everyday life. Yet little research has employed methods that rigorously measure individual differences in implicit moral evaluations. In five experiments, we develop a new sequential priming measure-the Moral Categorization Task-and a multinomial model that decomposes judgment on this task into multiple component processes. These include implicit moral evaluations of moral transgression primes (Unintentional Judgment), accurate moral judgments about target actions (Intentional Judgment), and a directional tendency to judge actions as morally wrong (Response Bias). Speeded response deadlines reduced Intentional Judgment but not Unintentional Judgment (Experiment 1). Unintentional Judgment was stronger toward moral transgression primes than non-moral negative primes (Experiments 2-4). Intentional Judgment was associated with increased error-related negativity, a neurophysiological indicator of behavioral control (Experiment 4). Finally, people who voted for an anti-gay marriage amendment had stronger Unintentional Judgment toward gay marriage primes (Experiment 5). Across Experiments 1-4, implicit moral evaluations converged with moral personality: Unintentional Judgment about wrong primes, but not negative primes, was negatively associated with psychopathic tendencies and positively associated with moral identity and guilt proneness. Theoretical and practical applications of formal modeling for moral psychology are discussed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. The Finite and Moving Order Multinomial Universal Portfolio

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tan, Choon Peng; Pang, Sook Theng

    2013-01-01

    An upper bound for the ratio of wealths of the best constant -rebalanced portfolio to that of the multinomial universal portfolio is derived. The finite- order multinomial universal portfolios can reduce the implementation time and computer-memory requirements for computation. The improved performance of the finite-order portfolios on some selected local stock-price data sets is observed.

  19. Naive Bayesian classifiers for multinomial features: a theoretical analysis

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Van Dyk, E

    2007-11-01

    Full Text Available The authors investigate the use of naive Bayesian classifiers for multinomial feature spaces and derive error estimates for these classifiers. The error analysis is done by developing a mathematical model to estimate the probability density...

  20. Age and pedestrian injury severity in motor-vehicle crashes: a heteroskedastic logit analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Joon-Ki; Ulfarsson, Gudmundur F; Shankar, Venkataraman N; Kim, Sungyop

    2008-09-01

    This research explores the injury severity of pedestrians in motor-vehicle crashes. It is hypothesized that the variance of unobserved pedestrian characteristics increases with age. In response, a heteroskedastic generalized extreme value model is used. The analysis links explanatory factors with four injury outcomes: fatal, incapacitating, non-incapacitating, and possible or no injury. Police-reported crash data between 1997 and 2000 from North Carolina, USA, are used. The results show that pedestrian age induces heteroskedasticity which affects the probability of fatal injury. The effect grows more pronounced with increasing age past 65. The heteroskedastic model provides a better fit than the multinomial logit model. Notable factors increasing the probability of fatal pedestrian injury: increasing pedestrian age, male driver, intoxicated driver (2.7 times greater probability of fatality), traffic sign, commercial area, darkness with or without streetlights (2-4 times greater probability of fatality), sport-utility vehicle, truck, freeway, two-way divided roadway, speeding-involved, off roadway, motorist turning or backing, both driver and pedestrian at fault, and pedestrian only at fault. Conversely, the probability of a fatal injury decreased: with increasing driver age, during the PM traffic peak, with traffic signal control, in inclement weather, on a curved roadway, at a crosswalk, and when walking along roadway.

  1. STAS and Logit Modeling of Advertising and Promotion Effects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Flemming; Yssing Hansen, Lotte; Grønholdt, Lars

    2002-01-01

    This paper describes the preliminary studies of the effect of advertising and promotion on purchases using the British single-source database Adlab. STAS and logit modeling are the two measures studied. Results from the two measures have been compared to determine the extent to which, they give...

  2. Spatial age-length key modelling using continuation ratio logits

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Berg, Casper W.; Kristensen, Kasper

    2012-01-01

    -called age-length key (ALK) is then used to obtain the age distribution. Regional differences in ALKs are not uncommon, but stratification is often problematic due to a small number of samples. Here, we combine generalized additive modelling with continuation ratio logits to model the probability of age...

  3. Predicting Dropouts of University Freshmen: A Logit Regression Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lam, Y. L. Jack

    1984-01-01

    Stepwise discriminant analysis coupled with logit regression analysis of freshmen data from Brandon University (Manitoba) indicated that six tested variables drawn from research on university dropouts were useful in predicting attrition: student status, residence, financial sources, distance from home town, goal fulfillment, and satisfaction with…

  4. Multinomial logistic regression modelling of obesity and overweight among primary school students in a rural area of Negeri Sembilan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ghazali, Amirul Syafiq Mohd; Ali, Zalila; Noor, Norlida Mohd; Baharum, Adam [Pusat Pengajian Sains Matematik, Universiti Sains Malaysia, 11800 USM, Pulau Pinang, Malaysia amirul@unisel.edu.my, zalila@cs.usm.my, norlida@usm.my, adam@usm.my (Malaysia)

    2015-10-22

    Multinomial logistic regression is widely used to model the outcomes of a polytomous response variable, a categorical dependent variable with more than two categories. The model assumes that the conditional mean of the dependent categorical variables is the logistic function of an affine combination of predictor variables. Its procedure gives a number of logistic regression models that make specific comparisons of the response categories. When there are q categories of the response variable, the model consists of q-1 logit equations which are fitted simultaneously. The model is validated by variable selection procedures, tests of regression coefficients, a significant test of the overall model, goodness-of-fit measures, and validation of predicted probabilities using odds ratio. This study used the multinomial logistic regression model to investigate obesity and overweight among primary school students in a rural area on the basis of their demographic profiles, lifestyles and on the diet and food intake. The results indicated that obesity and overweight of students are related to gender, religion, sleep duration, time spent on electronic games, breakfast intake in a week, with whom meals are taken, protein intake, and also, the interaction between breakfast intake in a week with sleep duration, and the interaction between gender and protein intake.

  5. Multinomial logistic regression modelling of obesity and overweight among primary school students in a rural area of Negeri Sembilan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ghazali, Amirul Syafiq Mohd; Ali, Zalila; Noor, Norlida Mohd; Baharum, Adam

    2015-01-01

    Multinomial logistic regression is widely used to model the outcomes of a polytomous response variable, a categorical dependent variable with more than two categories. The model assumes that the conditional mean of the dependent categorical variables is the logistic function of an affine combination of predictor variables. Its procedure gives a number of logistic regression models that make specific comparisons of the response categories. When there are q categories of the response variable, the model consists of q-1 logit equations which are fitted simultaneously. The model is validated by variable selection procedures, tests of regression coefficients, a significant test of the overall model, goodness-of-fit measures, and validation of predicted probabilities using odds ratio. This study used the multinomial logistic regression model to investigate obesity and overweight among primary school students in a rural area on the basis of their demographic profiles, lifestyles and on the diet and food intake. The results indicated that obesity and overweight of students are related to gender, religion, sleep duration, time spent on electronic games, breakfast intake in a week, with whom meals are taken, protein intake, and also, the interaction between breakfast intake in a week with sleep duration, and the interaction between gender and protein intake

  6. Pricing Mining Concessions Based on Combined Multinomial Pricing Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chang Xiao

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available A combined multinomial pricing model is proposed for pricing mining concession in which the annualized volatility of the price of mineral products follows a multinomial distribution. First, a combined multinomial pricing model is proposed which consists of binomial pricing models calculated according to different volatility values. Second, a method is provided to calculate the annualized volatility and the distribution. Third, the value of convenience yields is calculated based on the relationship between the futures price and the spot price. The notion of convenience yields is used to adjust our model as well. Based on an empirical study of a Chinese copper mine concession, we verify that our model is easy to use and better than the model with constant volatility when considering the changing annualized volatility of the price of the mineral product.

  7. Un procedimiento para selección de los modelos Logit Mixtos

    OpenAIRE

    Ruíz Gallegos, José de Jesús

    2004-01-01

    En el presente trabajo se hace una revisión de dos modelos que han tenido una fuerte aplicabilidad en los problemas de elecciones discretas: El modelo Logit y el modelo Logit Mixto. Además, se propone el uso del estadístico de Cox para seleccionar modelos, en el modelo Logit Mixto.

  8. A nested recursive logit model for route choice analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mai, Tien; Frejinger, Emma; Fosgerau, Mogens

    2015-01-01

    choices and the model does not require any sampling of choice sets. Furthermore, the model can be consistently estimated and efficiently used for prediction.A key challenge lies in the computation of the value functions, i.e. the expected maximum utility from any position in the network to a destination....... The value functions are the solution to a system of non-linear equations. We propose an iterative method with dynamic accuracy that allows to efficiently solve these systems.We report estimation results and a cross-validation study for a real network. The results show that the NRL model yields sensible......We propose a route choice model that relaxes the independence from irrelevant alternatives property of the logit model by allowing scale parameters to be link specific. Similar to the recursive logit (RL) model proposed by Fosgerau et al. (2013), the choice of path is modeled as a sequence of link...

  9. Total, Direct, and Indirect Effects in Logit Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karlson, Kristian Bernt; Holm, Anders; Breen, Richard

    It has long been believed that the decomposition of the total effect of one variable on another into direct and indirect effects, while feasible in linear models, is not possible in non-linear probability models such as the logit and probit. In this paper we present a new and simple method...... average partial effects, as defined by Wooldridge (2002). We present the method graphically and illustrate it using the National Educational Longitudinal Study of 1988...

  10. Hierarchical Multinomial Processing Tree Models: A Latent-Trait Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klauer, Karl Christoph

    2010-01-01

    Multinomial processing tree models are widely used in many areas of psychology. A hierarchical extension of the model class is proposed, using a multivariate normal distribution of person-level parameters with the mean and covariance matrix to be estimated from the data. The hierarchical model allows one to take variability between persons into…

  11. Liberalización económica y crecimiento económico. Modelo Logit Multinomial aplicado a la metodología de "Doing Business"

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alberto Gómez Mejía

    2011-01-01

    de Doing Business explican cómo, cuando un país implementa estos criterios, incrementa las posibilidades de pasar a un nivel de ingreso per cápita superior, lo cual implica mayor crecimiento económico y potencial desarrollo económico.

  12. Multinomial-exponential reliability function: a software reliability model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saiz de Bustamante, Amalio; Saiz de Bustamante, Barbara

    2003-01-01

    The multinomial-exponential reliability function (MERF) was developed during a detailed study of the software failure/correction processes. Later on MERF was approximated by a much simpler exponential reliability function (EARF), which keeps most of MERF mathematical properties, so the two functions together makes up a single reliability model. The reliability model MERF/EARF considers the software failure process as a non-homogeneous Poisson process (NHPP), and the repair (correction) process, a multinomial distribution. The model supposes that both processes are statistically independent. The paper discusses the model's theoretical basis, its mathematical properties and its application to software reliability. Nevertheless it is foreseen model applications to inspection and maintenance of physical systems. The paper includes a complete numerical example of the model application to a software reliability analysis

  13. Ordered LOGIT Model approach for the determination of financial distress.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kinay, B

    2010-01-01

    Nowadays, as a result of the global competition encountered, numerous companies come up against financial distresses. To predict and take proactive approaches for those problems is quite important. Thus, the prediction of crisis and financial distress is essential in terms of revealing the financial condition of companies. In this study, financial ratios relating to 156 industrial firms that are quoted in the Istanbul Stock Exchange are used and probabilities of financial distress are predicted by means of an ordered logit regression model. By means of Altman's Z Score, the dependent variable is composed by scaling the level of risk. Thus, a model that can compose an early warning system and predict financial distress is proposed.

  14. Analisis Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Tingkat Kesehatan Bank dengan Regresi Logit

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Titik Aryati

    2007-09-01

    Full Text Available The article aims to find the probability effects of bank’s health level using CAMEL ratio analysis. The statistic method used to test on the research hypothesis was logit regression. The dependent variable used in this research was bank’s health level and independent variables were CAMEL financial ratios consisting of CAR, NPL, ROA, ROE, LDR, and NIM. The report data were extracted from bank’s financial from financial report, which had been published and accumulated by Infobank research bureau with valuation, based on bank Indonesia policy. The sample consisted of 60 healthy banks and 14 unhealthy banks in 2005 and 2006. The empirical result of this research indicates that the Non Performing Loan is the significant variable affecting bank health level.

  15. Pricing and lot sizing optimization in a two-echelon supply chain with a constrained Logit demand function

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yeison Díaz-Mateus

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Decision making in supply chains is influenced by demand variations, and hence sales, purchase orders and inventory levels are therefore concerned. This paper presents a non-linear optimization model for a two-echelon supply chain, for a unique product. In addition, the model includes the consumers’ maximum willingness to pay, taking socioeconomic differences into account. To do so, the constrained multinomial logit for discrete choices is used to estimate demand levels. Then, a metaheuristic approach based on particle swarm optimization is proposed to determine the optimal product sales price and inventory coordination variables. To validate the proposed model, a supply chain of a technological product was chosen and three scenarios are analyzed: discounts, demand segmentation and demand overestimation. Results are analyzed on the basis of profits, lotsizing and inventory turnover and market share. It can be concluded that the maximum willingness to pay must be taken into consideration, otherwise fictitious profits may mislead decision making, and although the market share would seem to improve, overall profits are not in fact necessarily better.

  16. Essays on pricing dynamics, price dispersion, and nested logit modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verlinda, Jeremy Alan

    The body of this dissertation comprises three standalone essays, presented in three respective chapters. Chapter One explores the possibility that local market power contributes to the asymmetric relationship observed between wholesale costs and retail prices in gasoline markets. I exploit an original data set of weekly gas station prices in Southern California from September 2002 to May 2003, and take advantage of highly detailed station and local market-level characteristics to determine the extent to which spatial differentiation influences price-response asymmetry. I find that brand identity, proximity to rival stations, bundling and advertising, operation type, and local market features and demographics each influence a station's predicted asymmetric relationship between prices and wholesale costs. Chapter Two extends the existing literature on the effect of market structure on price dispersion in airline fares by modeling the effect at the disaggregate ticket level. Whereas past studies rely on aggregate measures of price dispersion such as the Gini coefficient or the standard deviation of fares, this paper estimates the entire empirical distribution of airline fares and documents how the shape of the distribution is determined by market structure. Specifically, I find that monopoly markets favor a wider distribution of fares with more mass in the tails while duopoly and competitive markets exhibit a tighter fare distribution. These findings indicate that the dispersion of airline fares may result from the efforts of airlines to practice second-degree price discrimination. Chapter Three adopts a Bayesian approach to the problem of tree structure specification in nested logit modelling, which requires a heavy computational burden in calculating marginal likelihoods. I compare two different techniques for estimating marginal likelihoods: (1) the Laplace approximation, and (2) reversible jump MCMC. I apply the techniques to both a simulated and a travel mode

  17. Unobserved Heterogeneity in the Binary Logit Model with Cross-Sectional Data and Short Panels

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holm, Anders; Jæger, Mads Meier; Pedersen, Morten

    This paper proposes a new approach to dealing with unobserved heterogeneity in applied research using the binary logit model with cross-sectional data and short panels. Unobserved heterogeneity is particularly important in non-linear regression models such as the binary logit model because, unlike...... in linear regression models, estimates of the effects of observed independent variables are biased even when omitted independent variables are uncorrelated with the observed independent variables. We propose an extension of the binary logit model based on a finite mixture approach in which we conceptualize...

  18. Modeling Information Content Via Dirichlet-Multinomial Regression Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferrari, Alberto

    2017-01-01

    Shannon entropy is being increasingly used in biomedical research as an index of complexity and information content in sequences of symbols, e.g. languages, amino acid sequences, DNA methylation patterns and animal vocalizations. Yet, distributional properties of information entropy as a random variable have seldom been the object of study, leading to researchers mainly using linear models or simulation-based analytical approach to assess differences in information content, when entropy is measured repeatedly in different experimental conditions. Here a method to perform inference on entropy in such conditions is proposed. Building on results coming from studies in the field of Bayesian entropy estimation, a symmetric Dirichlet-multinomial regression model, able to deal efficiently with the issue of mean entropy estimation, is formulated. Through a simulation study the model is shown to outperform linear modeling in a vast range of scenarios and to have promising statistical properties. As a practical example, the method is applied to a data set coming from a real experiment on animal communication.

  19. Modelling Stochastic Route Choice Behaviours with a Closed-Form Mixed Logit Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xinjun Lai

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available A closed-form mixed Logit approach is proposed to model the stochastic route choice behaviours. It combines both the advantages of Probit and Logit to provide a flexible form in alternatives correlation and a tractable form in expression; besides, the heterogeneity in alternative variance can also be addressed. Paths are compared by pairs where the superiority of the binary Probit can be fully used. The Probit-based aggregation is also used for a nested Logit structure. Case studies on both numerical and empirical examples demonstrate that the new method is valid and practical. This paper thus provides an operational solution to incorporate the normal distribution in route choice with an analytical expression.

  20. Analysis of RIA standard curve by log-logistic and cubic log-logit models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yamada, Hideo; Kuroda, Akira; Yatabe, Tami; Inaba, Taeko; Chiba, Kazuo

    1981-01-01

    In order to improve goodness-of-fit in RIA standard analysis, programs for computing log-logistic and cubic log-logit were written in BASIC using personal computer P-6060 (Olivetti). Iterative least square method of Taylor series was applied for non-linear estimation of logistic and log-logistic. Hear ''log-logistic'' represents Y = (a - d)/(1 + (log(X)/c)sup(b)) + d As weights either 1, 1/var(Y) or 1/σ 2 were used in logistic or log-logistic and either Y 2 (1 - Y) 2 , Y 2 (1 - Y) 2 /var(Y), or Y 2 (1 - Y) 2 /σ 2 were used in quadratic or cubic log-logit. The term var(Y) represents squares of pure error and σ 2 represents estimated variance calculated using a following equation log(σ 2 + 1) = log(A) + J log(y). As indicators for goodness-of-fit, MSL/S sub(e)sup(2), CMD% and WRV (see text) were used. Better regression was obtained in case of alpha-fetoprotein by log-logistic than by logistic. Cortisol standard curve was much better fitted with cubic log-logit than quadratic log-logit. Predicted precision of AFP standard curve was below 5% in log-logistic in stead of 8% in logistic analysis. Predicted precision obtained using cubic log-logit was about five times lower than that with quadratic log-logit. Importance of selecting good models in RIA data processing was stressed in conjunction with intrinsic precision of radioimmunoassay system indicated by predicted precision. (author)

  1. DETEKSI DINI KRISIS PERBANKAN INDONESIA: IDENTIFIKASI VARIABEL MAKRO DENGAN MODEL LOGIT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shanty Oktavilia

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Indonesia suffered from banking crisis for several times. It was the effect of the worst crisis occurredin 1997. Actually, Bath Thailand which plunged into 27,8% at the third quarter of the year 1997 was thebeginning problem that caused Asia currency crisis. This study analyzes the influence of macro indicatoras an early warning system by using logit econometrics model for predicting the possibilities of bankingcrisis that may occur in Indonesia.Kewords: Banking Crisis, macro economic indicator, EWS-logit model

  2. Multiple equilibria and limit cycles in evolutonary games with Logit Dynamics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hommes, C.H.; Ochea, M.I.

    2012-01-01

    This note shows, by means of two simple, three-strategy games, the existence of stable periodic orbits and of multiple, interior steady states in a smooth version of the Best-Response Dynamics, the Logit Dynamics. The main finding is that, unlike Replicator Dynamics, generic Hopf bifurcation and

  3. Multiple steady states, limit cycles and chaotic attractors in evolutionary games with Logit Dynamics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hommes, C.H.; Ochea, M.I.

    2010-01-01

    This paper investigates, by means of simple, three and four strategy games, the occurrence of periodic and chaotic behaviour in a smooth version of the Best Response Dynamics, the Logit Dynamics. The main finding is that, unlike Replicator Dynamics, generic Hopf bifurcation and thus, stable limit

  4. Another Look at the Method of Y-Standardization in Logit and Probit Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karlson, Kristian Bernt

    2015-01-01

    This paper takes another look at the derivation of the method of Y-standardization used in sociological analysis involving comparisons of coefficients across logit or probit models. It shows that the method can be derived under less restrictive assumptions than hitherto suggested. Rather than...

  5. Logit Estimation of a Gravity Model of the College Enrollment Decision.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leppel, Karen

    1993-01-01

    A study investigated the factors influencing students' decisions about attending a college to which they had been admitted. Logit analysis confirmed gravity model predictions that geographic distance and student ability would most influence the enrollment decision and found other variables, although affecting earlier stages of decision making, did…

  6. An integrated Markov decision process and nested logit consumer response model of air ticket pricing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lu, J.; Feng, T.; Timmermans, H.P.J.; Yang, Z.

    2017-01-01

    The paper attempts to propose an optimal air ticket pricing model during the booking horizon by taking into account passengers' purchasing behavior of air tickets. A Markov decision process incorporating a nested logit consumer response model is established to modeling the dynamic pricing process.

  7. Associating Crash Avoidance Maneuvers with Driver Attributes and Accident Characteristics: A Mixed Logit Model Approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaplan, Sigal; Prato, Carlo Giacomo

    2012-01-01

    as from the key role of the ability of drivers to perform effective corrective maneuvers for the success of automated in-vehicle warning and driver assistance systems. The analysis is conducted by means of a mixed logit model that accommodates correlations across alternatives and heteroscedasticity. Data...

  8. Mixed logit model of intended residential mobility in renovated historical blocks in China

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jiang, W.; Timmermans, H.J.P.; Li, H.; Feng, T.

    2016-01-01

    Using data from 8 historical blocks in China, the influence of socialdemographic characteristics and residential satisfaction on intended residentialmobility is analysed. The results of a mixed logit model indicate that higher residential satisfaction will lead to a lower intention to move house,

  9. Fuzzy multinomial logistic regression analysis: A multi-objective programming approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdalla, Hesham A.; El-Sayed, Amany A.; Hamed, Ramadan

    2017-05-01

    Parameter estimation for multinomial logistic regression is usually based on maximizing the likelihood function. For large well-balanced datasets, Maximum Likelihood (ML) estimation is a satisfactory approach. Unfortunately, ML can fail completely or at least produce poor results in terms of estimated probabilities and confidence intervals of parameters, specially for small datasets. In this study, a new approach based on fuzzy concepts is proposed to estimate parameters of the multinomial logistic regression. The study assumes that the parameters of multinomial logistic regression are fuzzy. Based on the extension principle stated by Zadeh and Bárdossy's proposition, a multi-objective programming approach is suggested to estimate these fuzzy parameters. A simulation study is used to evaluate the performance of the new approach versus Maximum likelihood (ML) approach. Results show that the new proposed model outperforms ML in cases of small datasets.

  10. A Monte Carlo simulation study comparing linear regression, beta regression, variable-dispersion beta regression and fractional logit regression at recovering average difference measures in a two sample design.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meaney, Christopher; Moineddin, Rahim

    2014-01-24

    response data are generated from a discrete multinomial distribution with support on (0,1). The linear regression model, the variable-dispersion beta regression model and the fractional logit regression model all perform well across the simulation experiments under consideration. When employing beta regression to estimate covariate effects on (0,1) response data, researchers should ensure their dispersion sub-model is properly specified, else inferential errors could arise.

  11. Estimation from incomplete multinomial data. Ph.D. Thesis - Harvard Univ.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Credeur, K. R.

    1978-01-01

    The vector of multinomial cell probabilities was estimated from incomplete data, incomplete in that it contains partially classified observations. Each such partially classified observation was observed to fall in one of two or more selected categories but was not classified further into a single category. The data were assumed to be incomplete at random. The estimation criterion was minimization of risk for quadratic loss. The estimators were the classical maximum likelihood estimate, the Bayesian posterior mode, and the posterior mean. An approximation was developed for the posterior mean. The Dirichlet, the conjugate prior for the multinomial distribution, was assumed for the prior distribution.

  12. Study on Emission Measurement of Vehicle on Road Based on Binomial Logit Model

    OpenAIRE

    Aly, Sumarni Hamid; Selintung, Mary; Ramli, Muhammad Isran; Sumi, Tomonori

    2011-01-01

    This research attempts to evaluate emission measurement of on road vehicle. In this regard, the research develops failure probability model of vehicle emission test for passenger car which utilize binomial logit model. The model focuses on failure of CO and HC emission test for gasoline cars category and Opacity emission test for diesel-fuel cars category as dependent variables, while vehicle age, engine size, brand and type of the cars as independent variables. In order to imp...

  13. Analysis of Internet Usage Intensity in Iraq: An Ordered Logit Model

    OpenAIRE

    Almas Heshmati; Firas H. Al-Hammadany; Ashraf Bany-Mohammed

    2013-01-01

    Intensity of Internet use is significantly influenced by government policies, people’s levels of income, education, employment and general development and economic conditions. Iraq has very low Internet usage levels compared to the region and the world. This study uses an ordered logit model to analyse the intensity of Internet use in Iraq. The results showed that economic reasons (internet cost and income level) were key cause for low level usage intensity rates. About 68% of the population ...

  14. Comparison of multinomial logistic regression and logistic regression: which is more efficient in allocating land use?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Yingzhi; Deng, Xiangzheng; Li, Xing; Ma, Enjun

    2014-12-01

    Spatially explicit simulation of land use change is the basis for estimating the effects of land use and cover change on energy fluxes, ecology and the environment. At the pixel level, logistic regression is one of the most common approaches used in spatially explicit land use allocation models to determine the relationship between land use and its causal factors in driving land use change, and thereby to evaluate land use suitability. However, these models have a drawback in that they do not determine/allocate land use based on the direct relationship between land use change and its driving factors. Consequently, a multinomial logistic regression method was introduced to address this flaw, and thereby, judge the suitability of a type of land use in any given pixel in a case study area of the Jiangxi Province, China. A comparison of the two regression methods indicated that the proportion of correctly allocated pixels using multinomial logistic regression was 92.98%, which was 8.47% higher than that obtained using logistic regression. Paired t-test results also showed that pixels were more clearly distinguished by multinomial logistic regression than by logistic regression. In conclusion, multinomial logistic regression is a more efficient and accurate method for the spatial allocation of land use changes. The application of this method in future land use change studies may improve the accuracy of predicting the effects of land use and cover change on energy fluxes, ecology, and environment.

  15. A metric for cross-sample comparisons using logit and probit

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karlson, Kristian Bernt

    relative to an arbitrary scale, which makes the coefficients difficult both to interpret and to compare across groups or samples. Do differences in coefficients reflect true differences or differences in scales? This cross-sample comparison problem raises concerns for comparative research. However, we......* across groups or samples, making it suitable for situations met in real applications in comparative research. Our derivations also extend to the probit and to ordered and multinomial models. The new metric is implemented in the Stata command nlcorr....

  16. Numerical proceessing of radioimmunoassay results using logit-log transformation method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Textoris, R.

    1983-01-01

    The mathematical model and algorithm are described of the numerical processing of the results of a radioimmunoassay by the logit-log transformation method and by linear regression with weight factors. The limiting value of the curve for zero concentration is optimized with regard to the residual sum by the iterative method by multiple repeats of the linear regression. Typical examples are presented of the approximation of calibration curves. The method proved suitable for all hitherto used RIA sets and is well suited for small computers with internal memory of min. 8 Kbyte. (author)

  17. Health Care Facility Choice and User Fee Abolition: Regression Discontinuity in a Multinomial Choice Setting

    OpenAIRE

    Steven F. Koch; Jeffrey S. Racine

    2013-01-01

    We apply parametric and nonparametric regression discontinuity methodology within a multinomial choice setting to examine the impact of public health care user fee abolition on health facility choice using data from South Africa. The nonparametric model is found to outperform the parametric model both in- and out-of-sample, while also delivering more plausible estimates of the impact of user fee abolition (i.e. the 'treatment effect'). In the parametric framework, treatment effects were relat...

  18. The importance of examining movements within the US health care system: sequential logit modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lee Chioun

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Utilization of specialty care may not be a discrete, isolated behavior but rather, a behavior of sequential movements within the health care system. Although patients may often visit their primary care physician and receive a referral before utilizing specialty care, prior studies have underestimated the importance of accounting for these sequential movements. Methods The sample included 6,772 adults aged 18 years and older who participated in the 2001 Survey on Disparities in Quality of Care, sponsored by the Commonwealth Fund. A sequential logit model was used to account for movement in all stages of utilization: use of any health services (i.e., first stage, having a perceived need for specialty care (i.e., second stage, and utilization of specialty care (i.e., third stage. In the sequential logit model, all stages are nested within the previous stage. Results Gender, race/ethnicity, education and poor health had significant explanatory effects with regard to use of any health services and having a perceived need for specialty care, however racial/ethnic, gender, and educational disparities were not present in utilization of specialty care. After controlling for use of any health services and having a perceived need for specialty care, inability to pay for specialty care via income (AOR = 1.334, CI = 1.10 to 1.62 or health insurance (unstable insurance: AOR = 0.26, CI = 0.14 to 0.48; no insurance: AOR = 0.12, CI = 0.07 to 0.20 were significant barriers to utilization of specialty care. Conclusions Use of a sequential logit model to examine utilization of specialty care resulted in a detailed representation of utilization behaviors and patient characteristics that impact these behaviors at all stages within the health care system. After controlling for sequential movements within the health care system, the biggest barrier to utilizing specialty care is the inability to pay, while racial, gender, and educational disparities

  19. Risk factors associated with bus accident severity in the United States: A generalized ordered logit model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaplan, Sigal; Prato, Carlo Giacomo

    2012-01-01

    of 2011. Method: The current study investigates the underlying risk factors of bus accident severity in the United States by estimating a generalized ordered logit model. Data for the analysis are retrieved from the General Estimates System (GES) database for the years 2005–2009. Results: Results show...... that accident severity increases: (i) for young bus drivers under the age of 25; (ii) for drivers beyond the age of 55, and most prominently for drivers over 65 years old; (iii) for female drivers; (iv) for very high (over 65 mph) and very low (under 20 mph) speed limits; (v) at intersections; (vi) because......Introduction: Recent years have witnessed a growing interest in improving bus safety operations worldwide. While in the United States buses are considered relatively safe, the number of bus accidents is far from being negligible, triggering the introduction of the Motor-coach Enhanced Safety Act...

  20. Stability of Mixed-Strategy-Based Iterative Logit Quantal Response Dynamics in Game Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhuang, Qian; Di, Zengru; Wu, Jinshan

    2014-01-01

    Using the Logit quantal response form as the response function in each step, the original definition of static quantal response equilibrium (QRE) is extended into an iterative evolution process. QREs remain as the fixed points of the dynamic process. However, depending on whether such fixed points are the long-term solutions of the dynamic process, they can be classified into stable (SQREs) and unstable (USQREs) equilibriums. This extension resembles the extension from static Nash equilibriums (NEs) to evolutionary stable solutions in the framework of evolutionary game theory. The relation between SQREs and other solution concepts of games, including NEs and QREs, is discussed. Using experimental data from other published papers, we perform a preliminary comparison between SQREs, NEs, QREs and the observed behavioral outcomes of those experiments. For certain games, we determine that SQREs have better predictive power than QREs and NEs. PMID:25157502

  1. Using continuation-ratio logits to analyze the variation of the age composition of fish catches

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kvist, Trine; Gislason, Henrik; Thyregod, Poul

    2000-01-01

    Major sources of information for the estimation of the size of the fish stocks and the rate of their exploitation are samples from which the age composition of catches may be determined However, the age composition in the catches often varies as a result of several factors. Stratification...... of the sampling is desirable, because it leads to better estimates of the age composition, and the corresponding variances and covariances. The analysis is impeded by the fact that the response is ordered categorical. This paper introduces an easily applicable method to analyze such data. The method combines...... be applied separately to each level of the logits. The method is illustrated by the analysis of age-composition data collected from the Danish sandeel fishery in the North Sea in 1993. The significance of possible sources of variation is evaluated, and formulae for estimating the proportions of each age...

  2. Sample size determination for logistic regression on a logit-normal distribution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Seongho; Heath, Elisabeth; Heilbrun, Lance

    2017-06-01

    Although the sample size for simple logistic regression can be readily determined using currently available methods, the sample size calculation for multiple logistic regression requires some additional information, such as the coefficient of determination ([Formula: see text]) of a covariate of interest with other covariates, which is often unavailable in practice. The response variable of logistic regression follows a logit-normal distribution which can be generated from a logistic transformation of a normal distribution. Using this property of logistic regression, we propose new methods of determining the sample size for simple and multiple logistic regressions using a normal transformation of outcome measures. Simulation studies and a motivating example show several advantages of the proposed methods over the existing methods: (i) no need for [Formula: see text] for multiple logistic regression, (ii) available interim or group-sequential designs, and (iii) much smaller required sample size.

  3. Maximum Simulated Likelihood and Expectation-Maximization Methods to Estimate Random Coefficients Logit with Panel Data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cherchi, Elisabetta; Guevara, Cristian

    2012-01-01

    with cross-sectional or with panel data, and (d) EM systematically attained more efficient estimators than the MSL method. The results imply that if the purpose of the estimation is only to determine the ratios of the model parameters (e.g., the value of time), the EM method should be preferred. For all......The random coefficients logit model allows a more realistic representation of agents' behavior. However, the estimation of that model may involve simulation, which may become impractical with many random coefficients because of the curse of dimensionality. In this paper, the traditional maximum...... simulated likelihood (MSL) method is compared with the alternative expectation- maximization (EM) method, which does not require simulation. Previous literature had shown that for cross-sectional data, MSL outperforms the EM method in the ability to recover the true parameters and estimation time...

  4. Multinomial logistic models explaining income changes of migrants to high-amenity counties.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Von Reichert, C; Rudzitis, G

    1992-01-01

    "A survey of residents of and migrants to 15 fast-growing wilderness counties [in the United States] showed that only 25 percent of the migrants increased their income, while almost 50 percent accepted income losses upon their moves to high-amenity counties. Concomitantly, amenities and quality of life were more important factors in the migration decision than was employment, for instance. We focused on migrants in the labor force and employed multinomial logistic regression to identify the impact of migrants' characteristics, their satisfaction/dissatisfaction with previous location (push), and the importance of destination features (pull) on income change." excerpt

  5. Airport Choice in Sao Paulo Metropolitan Area: An Application of the Conditional Logit Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moreno, Marcelo Baena; Muller, Carlos

    2003-01-01

    Using the conditional LOGIT model, this paper addresses the airport choice in the Sao Paulo Metropolitan Area. In this region, Guarulhos International Airport (GRU) and Congonhas Airport (CGH) compete for passengers flying to several domestic destinations. The airport choice is believed to be a result of the tradeoff passengers perform considering airport access characteristics, airline level of service characteristics and passenger experience with the analyzed airports. It was found that access time to the airports better explain the airport choice than access distance, whereas direct flight frequencies gives better explanation to the airport choice than the indirect (connections and stops) and total (direct plus indirect) flight frequencies. Out of 15 tested variables, passenger experience with the analyzed airports was the variable that best explained the airport choice in the region. Model specifications considering 1, 2 or 3 variables were tested. The model specification most adjusted to the observed data considered access time, direct flight frequencies in the travel period (morning or afternoon peak) and passenger experience with the analyzed airports. The influence of these variables was therefore analyzed across market segments according to departure airport and flight duration criteria. The choice of GRU (located neighboring Sao Paulo city) is not well explained by the rationality of access time economy and the increase of the supply of direct flight frequencies, while the choice of CGH (located inside Sao Paulo city) is. Access time was found to be more important to passengers flying shorter distances while direct flight frequencies in the travel period were more significant to those flying longer distances. Keywords: Airport choice, Multiple airport region, Conditional LOGIT model, Access time, Flight frequencies, Passenger experience with the analyzed airports, Transportation planning

  6. Classification of Effective Soil Depth by Using Multinomial Logistic Regression Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, C. H.; Chan, H. C.; Chen, B. A.

    2016-12-01

    Classification of effective soil depth is a task of determining the slopeland utilizable limitation in Taiwan. The "Slopeland Conservation and Utilization Act" categorizes the slopeland into agriculture and husbandry land, land suitable for forestry and land for enhanced conservation according to the factors including average slope, effective soil depth, soil erosion and parental rock. However, sit investigation of the effective soil depth requires a cost-effective field work. This research aimed to classify the effective soil depth by using multinomial logistic regression with the environmental factors. The Wen-Shui Watershed located at the central Taiwan was selected as the study areas. The analysis of multinomial logistic regression is performed by the assistance of a Geographic Information Systems (GIS). The effective soil depth was categorized into four levels including deeper, deep, shallow and shallower. The environmental factors of slope, aspect, digital elevation model (DEM), curvature and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) were selected for classifying the soil depth. An Error Matrix was then used to assess the model accuracy. The results showed an overall accuracy of 75%. At the end, a map of effective soil depth was produced to help planners and decision makers in determining the slopeland utilizable limitation in the study areas.

  7. Extreme Sparse Multinomial Logistic Regression: A Fast and Robust Framework for Hyperspectral Image Classification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cao, Faxian; Yang, Zhijing; Ren, Jinchang; Ling, Wing-Kuen; Zhao, Huimin; Marshall, Stephen

    2017-12-01

    Although the sparse multinomial logistic regression (SMLR) has provided a useful tool for sparse classification, it suffers from inefficacy in dealing with high dimensional features and manually set initial regressor values. This has significantly constrained its applications for hyperspectral image (HSI) classification. In order to tackle these two drawbacks, an extreme sparse multinomial logistic regression (ESMLR) is proposed for effective classification of HSI. First, the HSI dataset is projected to a new feature space with randomly generated weight and bias. Second, an optimization model is established by the Lagrange multiplier method and the dual principle to automatically determine a good initial regressor for SMLR via minimizing the training error and the regressor value. Furthermore, the extended multi-attribute profiles (EMAPs) are utilized for extracting both the spectral and spatial features. A combinational linear multiple features learning (MFL) method is proposed to further enhance the features extracted by ESMLR and EMAPs. Finally, the logistic regression via the variable splitting and the augmented Lagrangian (LORSAL) is adopted in the proposed framework for reducing the computational time. Experiments are conducted on two well-known HSI datasets, namely the Indian Pines dataset and the Pavia University dataset, which have shown the fast and robust performance of the proposed ESMLR framework.

  8. Prospective memory after moderate-to-severe traumatic brain injury: a multinomial modeling approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pavawalla, Shital P; Schmitter-Edgecombe, Maureen; Smith, Rebekah E

    2012-01-01

    Prospective memory (PM), which can be understood as the processes involved in realizing a delayed intention, is consistently found to be impaired after a traumatic brain injury (TBI). Although PM can be empirically dissociated from retrospective memory, it inherently involves both a prospective component (i.e., remembering that an action needs to be carried out) and retrospective components (i.e., remembering what action needs to be executed and when). This study utilized a multinomial processing tree model to disentangle the prospective (that) and retrospective recognition (when) components underlying PM after moderate-to-severe TBI. Seventeen participants with moderate to severe TBI and 17 age- and education-matched control participants completed an event-based PM task that was embedded within an ongoing computer-based color-matching task. The multinomial processing tree modeling approach revealed a significant group difference in the prospective component, indicating that the control participants allocated greater preparatory attentional resources to the PM task compared to the TBI participants. Participants in the TBI group were also found to be significantly more impaired than controls in the when aspect of the retrospective component. These findings indicated that the TBI participants had greater difficulty allocating the necessary preparatory attentional resources to the PM task and greater difficulty discriminating between PM targets and nontargets during task execution, despite demonstrating intact posttest recall and/or recognition of the PM tasks and targets.

  9. Parameter Estimation in Probit Model for Multivariate Multinomial Response Using SMLE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jaka Nugraha

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available In  the  research  field  of  transportation,  market  research and  politics,  often involving  the  response  of  the multinomial multivariate  observations.  In  this  paper, we discused  a  modeling  of  multivariate  multinomial  responses  using  probit  model.  The estimated  parameters  were  calculated  using Maximum  Likelihood  Estimations  (MLE based  on  the  GHK  simulation.  method  known  as Simulated  Maximum  Likelihood Estimations (SMLE. Likelihood function on the Probit model contains probability values that must be resolved by simulation. By using  the GHK simulation algorithm,  the estimator equation has been obtained for the parameters in the model Probit  Keywords : Probit Model, Newton-Raphson Iteration,  GHK simulator, MLE, simulated log-likelihood

  10. Multinomial Response Models, for Modeling and Determining Important Factors in Different Contraceptive Methods in Women

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E Haji Nejad

    2001-06-01

    Full Text Available Difference aspects of multinomial statistical modelings and its classifications has been studied so far. In these type of problems Y is the qualitative random variable with T possible states which are considered as classifications. The goal is prediction of Y based on a random Vector X ? IR^m. Many methods for analyzing these problems were considered. One of the modern and general method of classification is Classification and Regression Trees (CART. Another method is recursive partitioning techniques which has a strange relationship with nonparametric regression. Classical discriminant analysis is a standard method for analyzing these type of data. Flexible discriminant analysis method which is a combination of nonparametric regression and discriminant analysis and classification using spline that includes least square regression and additive cubic splines. Neural network is an advanced statistical method for analyzing these types of data. In this paper properties of multinomial logistics regression were investigated and this method was used for modeling effective factors in selecting contraceptive methods in Ghom province for married women age 15-49. The response variable has a tetranomial distibution. The levels of this variable are: nothing, pills, traditional and a collection of other contraceptive methods. A collection of significant independent variables were: place, age of women, education, history of pregnancy and family size. Menstruation age and age at marriage were not statistically significant.

  11. Uncovering a latent multinomial: Analysis of mark-recapture data with misidentification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Link, W.A.; Yoshizaki, J.; Bailey, L.L.; Pollock, K.H.

    2010-01-01

    Natural tags based on DNA fingerprints or natural features of animals are now becoming very widely used in wildlife population biology. However, classic capture-recapture models do not allow for misidentification of animals which is a potentially very serious problem with natural tags. Statistical analysis of misidentification processes is extremely difficult using traditional likelihood methods but is easily handled using Bayesian methods. We present a general framework for Bayesian analysis of categorical data arising from a latent multinomial distribution. Although our work is motivated by a specific model for misidentification in closed population capture-recapture analyses, with crucial assumptions which may not always be appropriate, the methods we develop extend naturally to a variety of other models with similar structure. Suppose that observed frequencies f are a known linear transformation f = A???x of a latent multinomial variable x with cell probability vector ?? = ??(??). Given that full conditional distributions [?? | x] can be sampled, implementation of Gibbs sampling requires only that we can sample from the full conditional distribution [x | f, ??], which is made possible by knowledge of the null space of A???. We illustrate the approach using two data sets with individual misidentification, one simulated, the other summarizing recapture data for salamanders based on natural marks. ?? 2009, The International Biometric Society.

  12. Widen NomoGram for multinomial logistic regression: an application to staging liver fibrosis in chronic hepatitis C patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ardoino, Ilaria; Lanzoni, Monica; Marano, Giuseppe; Boracchi, Patrizia; Sagrini, Elisabetta; Gianstefani, Alice; Piscaglia, Fabio; Biganzoli, Elia M

    2017-04-01

    The interpretation of regression models results can often benefit from the generation of nomograms, 'user friendly' graphical devices especially useful for assisting the decision-making processes. However, in the case of multinomial regression models, whenever categorical responses with more than two classes are involved, nomograms cannot be drawn in the conventional way. Such a difficulty in managing and interpreting the outcome could often result in a limitation of the use of multinomial regression in decision-making support. In the present paper, we illustrate the derivation of a non-conventional nomogram for multinomial regression models, intended to overcome this issue. Although it may appear less straightforward at first sight, the proposed methodology allows an easy interpretation of the results of multinomial regression models and makes them more accessible for clinicians and general practitioners too. Development of prediction model based on multinomial logistic regression and of the pertinent graphical tool is illustrated by means of an example involving the prediction of the extent of liver fibrosis in hepatitis C patients by routinely available markers.

  13. Anàlisi cluster multinomial bayesià..Aplicació a dades electorals

    OpenAIRE

    Montón Domingo, Maria

    2009-01-01

    En aquest treball fi de màster se li vol donar una altra visió a les dades de resultats electorals, en concret, les del Parlament de Catalunya. Així doncs, l'eina d'anàlisi que s'utilitza és l'anàlisi clúster multinomial bayesià i les unitats d'estudi són les zones de recerca petita de la ciutat de Barcelona. D'aquesta manera es determina com s'agrupen les diferents zones de recerca petita de Barcelona des del punt de vista de les seves votacions i quina relació hi ha entre els partits en fun...

  14. Testing independence between two Poisson-generated multinomial variables in case-series and cohort studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hocine, Mounia; Guillemot, Didier; Tubert-Bitter, Pascale; Moreau, Thierry

    2005-12-30

    In case-series or cohort studies, we propose a test of independence between the occurrences of two types of recurrent events (such as two repeated infections) related to an intermittent exposure (such as an antibiotic treatment). The test relies upon an extension of a recent method for analysing case-series data, in the presence of one type of recurrent event. The test statistic is derived from a bivariate Poisson generated-multinomial distribution. Simulations for checking the validity of the test concerning the type I error and the power properties are presented. The test is illustrated using data from a cohort on antibiotics bacterial resistance in schoolchildren. Copyright 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  15. Multinomial Bayesian learning for modeling classical and nonclassical receptive field properties.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hosoya, Haruo

    2012-08-01

    We study the interplay of Bayesian inference and natural image learning in a hierarchical vision system, in relation to the response properties of early visual cortex. We particularly focus on a Bayesian network with multinomial variables that can represent discrete feature spaces similar to hypercolumns combining minicolumns, enforce sparsity of activation to learn efficient representations, and explain divisive normalization. We demonstrate that maximal-likelihood learning using sampling-based Bayesian inference gives rise to classical receptive field properties similar to V1 simple cells and V2 cells, while inference performed on the trained network yields nonclassical context-dependent response properties such as cross-orientation suppression and filling in. Comparison with known physiological properties reveals some qualitative and quantitative similarities.

  16. The empathy impulse: A multinomial model of intentional and unintentional empathy for pain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cameron, C Daryl; Spring, Victoria L; Todd, Andrew R

    2017-04-01

    Empathy for pain is often described as automatic. Here, we used implicit measurement and multinomial modeling to formally quantify unintentional empathy for pain: empathy that occurs despite intentions to the contrary. We developed the pain identification task (PIT), a sequential priming task wherein participants judge the painfulness of target experiences while trying to avoid the influence of prime experiences. Using multinomial modeling, we distinguished 3 component processes underlying PIT performance: empathy toward target stimuli (Intentional Empathy), empathy toward prime stimuli (Unintentional Empathy), and bias to judge target stimuli as painful (Response Bias). In Experiment 1, imposing a fast (vs. slow) response deadline uniquely reduced Intentional Empathy. In Experiment 2, inducing imagine-self (vs. imagine-other) perspective-taking uniquely increased Unintentional Empathy. In Experiment 3, Intentional and Unintentional Empathy were stronger toward targets with typical (vs. atypical) pain outcomes, suggesting that outcome information matters and that effects on the PIT are not reducible to affective priming. Typicality of pain outcomes more weakly affected task performance when target stimuli were merely categorized rather than judged for painfulness, suggesting that effects on the latter are not reducible to semantic priming. In Experiment 4, Unintentional Empathy was stronger for participants who engaged in costly donation to cancer charities, but this parameter was also high for those who donated to an objectively worse but socially more popular charity, suggesting that overly high empathy may facilitate maladaptive altruism. Theoretical and practical applications of our modeling approach for understanding variation in empathy are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  17. DETERMINATION OF FACTORS AFFECTING LENGTH OF STAY WITH MULTINOMIAL LOGISTIC REGRESSION IN TURKEY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Öğr. Gör. Rukiye NUMAN TEKİN

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Length of stay (LOS has important implications in various aspects of health services, can vary according to a wide range of factors. It is noticed that LOS has been neglected mostly in both theoratical studies and practice of health care management in Turkey. The main purpose of this study is to identify factors related to LOS in Turkey. A retrospective analysis of 2.255.836 patients hospitalized to private, university, foundation university and other (municipality, association and foreigners/minority hospitals hospitals which have an agreement with Social Security Institution (SSI in Turkey, from January 1, 2010, until the December 31, 2010, was examined. Patient’s data were taken from MEDULA (National Electronic Invoice System and SPSS 18.0 was used to perform statistical analysis. In this study t-test, one way anova and multinomial logistic regression are used to determine variables that may affect to LOS. The average LOS of patients was 3,93 days (SD = 5,882. LOS showed a statistically significant difference according to all independent variables used in the study (age, gender, disease class, type of hospitalization, presence of comorbidity, type and number of surgery, season of hospitalization, hospital ownership/bed capacity/ geographical region/residential area/type of service. According to the results of the multinomial lojistic regression analysis, LOS was negatively affected in terms of gender, presence of comorbidity, geographical region of hospital and was positively affected in terms of age, season of hospitalization, hospital bed capacity/ ownership/type of service/residential area.

  18. A mixed logit analysis of two-vehicle crash severities involving a motorcycle.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaheed, Mohammad Saad B; Gkritza, Konstantina; Zhang, Wei; Hans, Zachary

    2013-12-01

    Using motorcycle crash data for Iowa from 2001 to 2008, this paper estimates a mixed logit model to investigate the factors that affect crash severity outcomes in a collision between a motorcycle and another vehicle. These include crash-specific factors (such as manner of collision, motorcycle rider and non-motorcycle driver and vehicle actions), roadway and environmental conditions, location and time, motorcycle rider and non-motorcycle driver and vehicle attributes. The methodological approach allows the parameters to vary across observations as opposed to a single parameter representing all observations. Our results showed non-uniform effects of rear-end collisions on minor injury crashes, as well as of the roadway speed limit greater or equal to 55mph, the type of area (urban), the riding season (summer) and motorcyclist's gender on low severity crashes. We also found significant effects of the roadway surface condition, clear vision (not obscured by moving vehicles, trees, buildings, or other), light conditions, speed limit, and helmet use on severe injury outcomes. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Analysis of Salmonella sp bacterial contamination on Vannamei Shrimp using binary logit model approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oktaviana, P. P.; Fithriasari, K.

    2018-04-01

    Mostly Indonesian citizen consume vannamei shrimp as their food. Vannamei shrimp also is one of Indonesian exports comodities mainstay. Vannamei shrimp in the ponds and markets could be contaminated by Salmonella sp bacteria. This bacteria will endanger human health. Salmonella sp bacterial contamination on vannamei shrimp could be affected by many factors. This study is intended to identify what factors that supposedly influence the Salmonella sp bacterial contamination on vannamei shrimp. The researchers used the testing result of Salmonella sp bacterial contamination on vannamei shrimp as response variable. This response variable has two categories: 0 = if testing result indicate that there is no Salmonella sp on vannamei shrimp; 1 = if testing result indicate that there is Salmonella sp on vannamei shrimp. There are four factors that supposedly influence the Salmonella sp bacterial contamination on vannamei shrimp, which are the testing result of Salmonella sp bacterial contamination on farmer hand swab; the subdistrict of vannamei shrimp ponds; the fish processing unit supplied by; and the pond are in hectare. This four factors used as predictor variables. The analysis used is Binary Logit Model Approach according to the response variable that has two categories. The analysis result indicates that the factors or predictor variables which is significantly affect the Salmonella sp bacterial contamination on vannamei shrimp are the testing result of Salmonella sp bacterial contamination on farmer hand swab and the subdistrict of vannamei shrimp ponds.

  20. Investigating the Differences of Single-Vehicle and Multivehicle Accident Probability Using Mixed Logit Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bowen Dong

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Road traffic accidents are believed to be associated with not only road geometric feature and traffic characteristic, but also weather condition. To address these safety issues, it is of paramount importance to understand how these factors affect the occurrences of the crashes. Existing studies have suggested that the mechanisms of single-vehicle (SV accidents and multivehicle (MV accidents can be very different. Few studies were conducted to examine the difference of SV and MV accident probability by addressing unobserved heterogeneity at the same time. To investigate the different contributing factors on SV and MV, a mixed logit model is employed using disaggregated data with the response variable categorized as no accidents, SV accidents, and MV accidents. The results indicate that, in addition to speed gap, length of segment, and wet road surfaces which are significant for both SV and MV accidents, most of other variables are significant only for MV accidents. Traffic, road, and surface characteristics are main influence factors of SV and MV accident possibility. Hourly traffic volume, inside shoulder width, and wet road surface are found to produce statistically significant random parameters. Their effects on the possibility of SV and MV accident vary across different road segments.

  1. Time-varying mixed logit model for vehicle merging behavior in work zone merging areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weng, Jinxian; Du, Gang; Li, Dan; Yu, Yao

    2018-08-01

    This study aims to develop a time-varying mixed logit model for the vehicle merging behavior in work zone merging areas during the merging implementation period from the time of starting a merging maneuver to that of completing the maneuver. From the safety perspective, vehicle crash probability and severity between the merging vehicle and its surrounding vehicles are regarded as major factors influencing vehicle merging decisions. Model results show that the model with the use of vehicle crash risk probability and severity could provide higher prediction accuracy than previous models with the use of vehicle speeds and gap sizes. It is found that lead vehicle type, through lead vehicle type, through lag vehicle type, crash probability of the merging vehicle with respect to the through lag vehicle, crash severities of the merging vehicle with respect to the through lead and lag vehicles could exhibit time-varying effects on the merging behavior. One important finding is that the merging vehicle could become more and more aggressive in order to complete the merging maneuver as quickly as possible over the elapsed time, even if it has high vehicle crash risk with respect to the through lead and lag vehicles. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. A Subpath-based Logit Model to Capture the Correlation of Routes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xinjun Lai

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available A subpath-based methodology is proposed to capture the travellers’ route choice behaviours and their perceptual correlation of routes, because the original link-based style may not be suitable in application: (1 travellers do not process road network information and construct the chosen route by a link-by-link style; (2 observations from questionnaires and GPS data, however, are not always link-specific. Subpaths are defined as important portions of the route, such as major roads and landmarks. The cross-nested Logit (CNL structure is used for its tractable closed-form and its capability to explicitly capture the routes correlation. Nests represent subpaths other than links so that the number of nests is significantly reduced. Moreover, the proposed method simplifies the original link-based CNL model; therefore, it alleviates the estimation and computation difficulties. The estimation and forecast validation with real data are presented, and the results suggest that the new method is practical.

  3. Application of LogitBoost Classifier for Traceability Using SNP Chip Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Kwondo; Seo, Minseok; Kang, Hyunsung; Cho, Seoae; Kim, Heebal; Seo, Kang-Seok

    2015-01-01

    Consumer attention to food safety has increased rapidly due to animal-related diseases; therefore, it is important to identify their places of origin (POO) for safety purposes. However, only a few studies have addressed this issue and focused on machine learning-based approaches. In the present study, classification analyses were performed using a customized SNP chip for POO prediction. To accomplish this, 4,122 pigs originating from 104 farms were genotyped using the SNP chip. Several factors were considered to establish the best prediction model based on these data. We also assessed the applicability of the suggested model using a kinship coefficient-filtering approach. Our results showed that the LogitBoost-based prediction model outperformed other classifiers in terms of classification performance under most conditions. Specifically, a greater level of accuracy was observed when a higher kinship-based cutoff was employed. These results demonstrated the applicability of a machine learning-based approach using SNP chip data for practical traceability.

  4. Assessment of Poisson, logit, and linear models for genetic analysis of clinical mastitis in Norwegian Red cows.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vazquez, A I; Gianola, D; Bates, D; Weigel, K A; Heringstad, B

    2009-02-01

    Clinical mastitis is typically coded as presence/absence during some period of exposure, and records are analyzed with linear or binary data models. Because presence includes cows with multiple episodes, there is loss of information when a count is treated as a binary response. The Poisson model is designed for counting random variables, and although it is used extensively in epidemiology of mastitis, it has rarely been used for studying the genetics of mastitis. Many models have been proposed for genetic analysis of mastitis, but they have not been formally compared. The main goal of this study was to compare linear (Gaussian), Bernoulli (with logit link), and Poisson models for the purpose of genetic evaluation of sires for mastitis in dairy cattle. The response variables were clinical mastitis (CM; 0, 1) and number of CM cases (NCM; 0, 1, 2, ..). Data consisted of records on 36,178 first-lactation daughters of 245 Norwegian Red sires distributed over 5,286 herds. Predictive ability of models was assessed via a 3-fold cross-validation using mean squared error of prediction (MSEP) as the end-point. Between-sire variance estimates for NCM were 0.065 in Poisson and 0.007 in the linear model. For CM the between-sire variance was 0.093 in logit and 0.003 in the linear model. The ratio between herd and sire variances for the models with NCM response was 4.6 and 3.5 for Poisson and linear, respectively, and for model for CM was 3.7 in both logit and linear models. The MSEP for all cows was similar. However, within healthy animals, MSEP was 0.085 (Poisson), 0.090 (linear for NCM), 0.053 (logit), and 0.056 (linear for CM). For mastitic animals the MSEP values were 1.206 (Poisson), 1.185 (linear for NCM response), 1.333 (logit), and 1.319 (linear for CM response). The models for count variables had a better performance when predicting diseased animals and also had a similar performance between them. Logit and linear models for CM had better predictive ability for healthy

  5. Efficiency Loss of Mixed Equilibrium Associated with Altruistic Users and Logit-based Stochastic Users in Transportation Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiao-Jun Yu

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available The efficiency loss of mixed equilibrium associated with two categories of users is investigated in this paper. The first category of users are altruistic users (AU who have the same altruism coefficient and try to minimize their own perceived cost that assumed to be a linear combination of selfish com­ponent and altruistic component. The second category of us­ers are Logit-based stochastic users (LSU who choose the route according to the Logit-based stochastic user equilib­rium (SUE principle. The variational inequality (VI model is used to formulate the mixed route choice behaviours associ­ated with AU and LSU. The efficiency loss caused by the two categories of users is analytically derived and the relations to some network parameters are discussed. The numerical tests validate our analytical results. Our result takes the re­sults in the existing literature as its special cases.

  6. "The empathy impulse: A multinomial model of intentional and unintentional empathy for pain": Correction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2018-04-01

    Reports an error in "The empathy impulse: A multinomial model of intentional and unintentional empathy for pain" by C. Daryl Cameron, Victoria L. Spring and Andrew R. Todd ( Emotion , 2017[Apr], Vol 17[3], 395-411). In this article, there was an error in the calculation of some of the effect sizes. The w effect size was manually computed incorrectly. The incorrect number of total observations was used, which affected the final effect size estimates. This computing error does not change any of the results or interpretations about model fit based on the G² statistic, or about significant differences across conditions in process parameters. Therefore, it does not change any of the hypothesis tests or conclusions. The w statistics for overall model fit should be .02 instead of .04 in Study 1, .01 instead of .02 in Study 2, .01 instead of .03 for the OIT in Study 3 (model fit for the PIT remains the same: .00), and .02 instead of .03 in Study 4. The corrected tables can be seen here: http://osf.io/qebku at the Open Science Framework site for the article. (The following abstract of the original article appeared in record 2017-01641-001.) Empathy for pain is often described as automatic. Here, we used implicit measurement and multinomial modeling to formally quantify unintentional empathy for pain: empathy that occurs despite intentions to the contrary. We developed the pain identification task (PIT), a sequential priming task wherein participants judge the painfulness of target experiences while trying to avoid the influence of prime experiences. Using multinomial modeling, we distinguished 3 component processes underlying PIT performance: empathy toward target stimuli (Intentional Empathy), empathy toward prime stimuli (Unintentional Empathy), and bias to judge target stimuli as painful (Response Bias). In Experiment 1, imposing a fast (vs. slow) response deadline uniquely reduced Intentional Empathy. In Experiment 2, inducing imagine-self (vs. imagine

  7. Associating crash avoidance maneuvers with driver attributes and accident characteristics: a mixed logit model approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaplan, Sigal; Prato, Carlo Giacomo

    2012-01-01

    The current study focuses on the propensity of drivers to engage in crash avoidance maneuvers in relation to driver attributes, critical events, crash characteristics, vehicles involved, road characteristics, and environmental conditions. The importance of avoidance maneuvers derives from the key role of proactive and state-aware road users within the concept of sustainable safety systems, as well as from the key role of effective corrective maneuvers in the success of automated in-vehicle warning and driver assistance systems. The analysis is conducted by means of a mixed logit model that represents the selection among 5 emergency lateral and speed control maneuvers (i.e., "no avoidance maneuvers," "braking," "steering," "braking and steering," and "other maneuvers) while accommodating correlations across maneuvers and heteroscedasticity. Data for the analysis were retrieved from the General Estimates System (GES) crash database for the year 2009 by considering drivers for which crash avoidance maneuvers are known. The results show that (1) the nature of the critical event that made the crash imminent greatly influences the choice of crash avoidance maneuvers, (2) women and elderly have a relatively lower propensity to conduct crash avoidance maneuvers, (3) drowsiness and fatigue have a greater negative marginal effect on the tendency to engage in crash avoidance maneuvers than alcohol and drug consumption, (4) difficult road conditions increase the propensity to perform crash avoidance maneuvers, and (5) visual obstruction and artificial illumination decrease the probability to carry out crash avoidance maneuvers. The results emphasize the need for public awareness campaigns to promote safe driving style for senior drivers and warning about the risks of driving under fatigue and distraction being comparable to the risks of driving under the influence of alcohol and drugs. Moreover, the results suggest the need to educate drivers about hazard perception, designing

  8. Valuing Non-market Benefits of Rehabilitation of Hydrologic Cycle Improvements in the Anyangcheon Watershed: Using Mixed Logit Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoo, J.; Kong, K.

    2010-12-01

    This research the findings from a discrete-choice experiment designed to estimate the economic benefits associated with the Anyangcheon watershed improvements in Rep. of Korea. The Anyangcheon watershed has suffered from streamflow depletion and poor stream quality, which often negatively affect instream and near-stream ecologic integrity, as well as water supply. Such distortions in the hydrologic cycle mainly result from rapid increase of impermeable area due to urbanization, decreases of baseflow runoff due to groundwater pumping, and reduced precipitation inputs driven by climate forcing. As well, combined sewer overflows and increase of non-point source pollution from urban regions decrease water quality. The appeal of choice experiments (CE) in economic analysis is that it is based on random utility theory (McFadden, 1974; Ben-Akiva and Lerman, 1985). In contrast to contingent valuation method (CVM), which asks people to choose between a base case and a specific alternative, CE asks people to choice between cases that are described by attributes. The attributes of this study were selected from hydrologic vulnerability components that represent flood damage possibility, instreamflow depletion, water quality deterioration, form of the watershed and tax. Their levels were divided into three grades include status quo. Two grades represented the ideal conditions. These scenarios were constructed from a 35 orthogonal main effect design. This design resulted in twenty-seven choice sets. The design had nine different choice scenarios presented to each respondent. The most popular choice models in use are the conditional logit (CNL). This model provides closed-form choice probability calculation. The shortcoming of CNL comes from irrelevant alternatives (IIA). In this paper, the mixed logit (ML) is applied to allow the coefficient’s variation for random taste heterogeneity in the population. The mixed logit model(with normal distributions for the attributes) fit the

  9. Using multinomial and imprecise probability for non-parametric modelling of rainfall in Manizales (Colombia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ibsen Chivatá Cárdenas

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available This article presents a rainfall model constructed by applying non-parametric modelling and imprecise probabilities; these tools were used because there was not enough homogeneous information in the study area. The area’s hydro-logical information regarding rainfall was scarce and existing hydrological time series were not uniform. A distributed extended rainfall model was constructed from so-called probability boxes (p-boxes, multinomial probability distribu-tion and confidence intervals (a friendly algorithm was constructed for non-parametric modelling by combining the last two tools. This model confirmed the high level of uncertainty involved in local rainfall modelling. Uncertainty en-compassed the whole range (domain of probability values thereby showing the severe limitations on information, leading to the conclusion that a detailed estimation of probability would lead to significant error. Nevertheless, rele-vant information was extracted; it was estimated that maximum daily rainfall threshold (70 mm would be surpassed at least once every three years and the magnitude of uncertainty affecting hydrological parameter estimation. This paper’s conclusions may be of interest to non-parametric modellers and decisions-makers as such modelling and imprecise probability represents an alternative for hydrological variable assessment and maybe an obligatory proce-dure in the future. Its potential lies in treating scarce information and represents a robust modelling strategy for non-seasonal stochastic modelling conditions

  10. COMPARACION DE 13 INTERVALOS DE CONFIANZA PARA LOS PARAMETROS DE LA DISTRIBUCION MULTINOMIAL

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    Difariney González-Gómez

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available La distribución multinomial es fundamental para la descripción de fenómenos en los que pueden ocurrir k > 2 eventos excluyentes, cada uno con probabilidad π = (π1, π2, . . . , πk. Algunos ejemplos de esta distribución incluyen la calidad de un producto o encuestas de selección múltiple. Un problema de gran interés en inferencia estadística es la construcción de intervalos de confianza los parámetros para π. En este trabajo se comparan, a través de un estudio de simulación, 13 metodologías para la construcción de intervalos de confianza para dicha distribución. Utilizando como criterios de comparación el nivel de confianza nominal, la longitud del intervalo y una combinación de estos, se encuentra que los intervalos de confianza basados en el Teorema del Límite Central no presentan el mejor desempeño. Finalmente se recomiendan los métodos basados en la distribución F (Leemis, 1996, seguido del método de verosimilitud relativa (Kalbfleish, 1985 y Quesenberry & Hurst (1964.

  11. Multinomial logistic regression analysis for differentiating 3 treatment outcome trajectory groups for headache-associated disability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis, Kristin Nicole; Heckman, Bernadette Davantes; Himawan, Lina

    2011-08-01

    Growth mixture modeling (GMM) identified latent groups based on treatment outcome trajectories of headache disability measures in patients in headache subspecialty treatment clinics. Using a longitudinal design, 219 patients in headache subspecialty clinics in 4 large cities throughout Ohio provided data on their headache disability at pretreatment and 3 follow-up assessments. GMM identified 3 treatment outcome trajectory groups: (1) patients who initiated treatment with elevated disability levels and who reported statistically significant reductions in headache disability (high-disability improvers; 11%); (2) patients who initiated treatment with elevated disability but who reported no reductions in disability (high-disability nonimprovers; 34%); and (3) patients who initiated treatment with moderate disability and who reported statistically significant reductions in headache disability (moderate-disability improvers; 55%). Based on the final multinomial logistic regression model, a dichotomized treatment appointment attendance variable was a statistically significant predictor for differentiating high-disability improvers from high-disability nonimprovers. Three-fourths of patients who initiated treatment with elevated disability levels did not report reductions in disability after 5 months of treatment with new preventive pharmacotherapies. Preventive headache agents may be most efficacious for patients with moderate levels of disability and for patients with high disability levels who attend all treatment appointments. Copyright © 2011 International Association for the Study of Pain. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. The outcome of tuberculosis treatment in subjects with chronic kidney disease in Brazil: a multinomial analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Barbara Reis-Santos

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: To analyze the association between clinical/epidemiological characteristics and outcomes of tuberculosis treatment in patients with concomitant tuberculosis and chronic kidney disease (CKD in Brazil. METHODS: We used the Brazilian Ministry of Health National Case Registry Database to identify patients with tuberculosis and CKD, treated between 2007 and 2011. The tuberculosis treatment outcomes were compared with epidemiological and clinical characteristics of the subjects using a hierarchical multinomial logistic regression model, in which cure was the reference outcome. RESULTS: The prevalence of CKD among patients with tuberculosis was 0.4% (95% CI: 0.37-0.42%. The sample comprised 1,077 subjects. The outcomes were cure, in 58%; treatment abandonment, in 7%; death from tuberculosis, in 13%; and death from other causes, in 22%. The characteristics that differentiated the ORs for treatment abandonment or death were age; alcoholism; AIDS; previous noncompliance with treatment; transfer to another facility; suspected tuberculosis on chest X-ray; positive results in the first smear microscopy; and indications for/use of directly observed treatment, short-course strategy. CONCLUSIONS: Our data indicate the importance of sociodemographic characteristics for the diagnosis of tuberculosis in patients with CKD and underscore the need for tuberculosis control strategies targeting patients with chronic noncommunicable diseases, such as CKD.

  13. A constrained multinomial Probit route choice model in the metro network: Formulation, estimation and application

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yongsheng; Wei, Heng; Zheng, Kangning

    2017-01-01

    Considering that metro network expansion brings us with more alternative routes, it is attractive to integrate the impacts of routes set and the interdependency among alternative routes on route choice probability into route choice modeling. Therefore, the formulation, estimation and application of a constrained multinomial probit (CMNP) route choice model in the metro network are carried out in this paper. The utility function is formulated as three components: the compensatory component is a function of influencing factors; the non-compensatory component measures the impacts of routes set on utility; following a multivariate normal distribution, the covariance of error component is structured into three parts, representing the correlation among routes, the transfer variance of route, and the unobserved variance respectively. Considering multidimensional integrals of the multivariate normal probability density function, the CMNP model is rewritten as Hierarchical Bayes formula and M-H sampling algorithm based Monte Carlo Markov Chain approach is constructed to estimate all parameters. Based on Guangzhou Metro data, reliable estimation results are gained. Furthermore, the proposed CMNP model also shows a good forecasting performance for the route choice probabilities calculation and a good application performance for transfer flow volume prediction. PMID:28591188

  14. Predictive occurrence models for coastal wetland plant communities: delineating hydrologic response surfaces with multinomial logistic regression

    Science.gov (United States)

    Snedden, Gregg A.; Steyer, Gregory D.

    2013-01-01

    Understanding plant community zonation along estuarine stress gradients is critical for effective conservation and restoration of coastal wetland ecosystems. We related the presence of plant community types to estuarine hydrology at 173 sites across coastal Louisiana. Percent relative cover by species was assessed at each site near the end of the growing season in 2008, and hourly water level and salinity were recorded at each site Oct 2007–Sep 2008. Nine plant community types were delineated with k-means clustering, and indicator species were identified for each of the community types with indicator species analysis. An inverse relation between salinity and species diversity was observed. Canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) effectively segregated the sites across ordination space by community type, and indicated that salinity and tidal amplitude were both important drivers of vegetation composition. Multinomial logistic regression (MLR) and Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC) were used to predict the probability of occurrence of the nine vegetation communities as a function of salinity and tidal amplitude, and probability surfaces obtained from the MLR model corroborated the CCA results. The weighted kappa statistic, calculated from the confusion matrix of predicted versus actual community types, was 0.7 and indicated good agreement between observed community types and model predictions. Our results suggest that models based on a few key hydrologic variables can be valuable tools for predicting vegetation community development when restoring and managing coastal wetlands.

  15. Predictive occurrence models for coastal wetland plant communities: Delineating hydrologic response surfaces with multinomial logistic regression

    Science.gov (United States)

    Snedden, Gregg A.; Steyer, Gregory D.

    2013-02-01

    Understanding plant community zonation along estuarine stress gradients is critical for effective conservation and restoration of coastal wetland ecosystems. We related the presence of plant community types to estuarine hydrology at 173 sites across coastal Louisiana. Percent relative cover by species was assessed at each site near the end of the growing season in 2008, and hourly water level and salinity were recorded at each site Oct 2007-Sep 2008. Nine plant community types were delineated with k-means clustering, and indicator species were identified for each of the community types with indicator species analysis. An inverse relation between salinity and species diversity was observed. Canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) effectively segregated the sites across ordination space by community type, and indicated that salinity and tidal amplitude were both important drivers of vegetation composition. Multinomial logistic regression (MLR) and Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC) were used to predict the probability of occurrence of the nine vegetation communities as a function of salinity and tidal amplitude, and probability surfaces obtained from the MLR model corroborated the CCA results. The weighted kappa statistic, calculated from the confusion matrix of predicted versus actual community types, was 0.7 and indicated good agreement between observed community types and model predictions. Our results suggest that models based on a few key hydrologic variables can be valuable tools for predicting vegetation community development when restoring and managing coastal wetlands.

  16. The Effect of Task Duration on Event-Based Prospective Memory: A Multinomial Modeling Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hongxia Zhang

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Remembering to perform an action when a specific event occurs is referred to as Event-Based Prospective Memory (EBPM. This study investigated how EBPM performance is affected by task duration by having university students (n = 223 perform an EBPM task that was embedded within an ongoing computer-based color-matching task. For this experiment, we separated the overall task’s duration into the filler task duration and the ongoing task duration. The filler task duration is the length of time between the intention and the beginning of the ongoing task, and the ongoing task duration is the length of time between the beginning of the ongoing task and the appearance of the first Prospective Memory (PM cue. The filler task duration and ongoing task duration were further divided into three levels: 3, 6, and 9 min. Two factors were then orthogonally manipulated between-subjects using a multinomial processing tree model to separate the effects of different task durations on the two EBPM components. A mediation model was then created to verify whether task duration influences EBPM via self-reminding or discrimination. The results reveal three points. (1 Lengthening the duration of ongoing tasks had a negative effect on EBPM performance while lengthening the duration of the filler task had no significant effect on it. (2 As the filler task was lengthened, both the prospective and retrospective components show a decreasing and then increasing trend. Also, when the ongoing task duration was lengthened, the prospective component decreased while the retrospective component significantly increased. (3 The mediating effect of discrimination between the task duration and EBPM performance was significant. We concluded that different task durations influence EBPM performance through different components with discrimination being the mediator between task duration and EBPM performance.

  17. Multinomial N-mixture models improve the applicability of electrofishing for developing population estimates of stream-dwelling Smallmouth Bass

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mollenhauer, Robert; Brewer, Shannon K.

    2017-01-01

    Failure to account for variable detection across survey conditions constrains progressive stream ecology and can lead to erroneous stream fish management and conservation decisions. In addition to variable detection’s confounding long-term stream fish population trends, reliable abundance estimates across a wide range of survey conditions are fundamental to establishing species–environment relationships. Despite major advancements in accounting for variable detection when surveying animal populations, these approaches remain largely ignored by stream fish scientists, and CPUE remains the most common metric used by researchers and managers. One notable advancement for addressing the challenges of variable detection is the multinomial N-mixture model. Multinomial N-mixture models use a flexible hierarchical framework to model the detection process across sites as a function of covariates; they also accommodate common fisheries survey methods, such as removal and capture–recapture. Effective monitoring of stream-dwelling Smallmouth Bass Micropterus dolomieu populations has long been challenging; therefore, our objective was to examine the use of multinomial N-mixture models to improve the applicability of electrofishing for estimating absolute abundance. We sampled Smallmouth Bass populations by using tow-barge electrofishing across a range of environmental conditions in streams of the Ozark Highlands ecoregion. Using an information-theoretic approach, we identified effort, water clarity, wetted channel width, and water depth as covariates that were related to variable Smallmouth Bass electrofishing detection. Smallmouth Bass abundance estimates derived from our top model consistently agreed with baseline estimates obtained via snorkel surveys. Additionally, confidence intervals from the multinomial N-mixture models were consistently more precise than those of unbiased Petersen capture–recapture estimates due to the dependency among data sets in the

  18. Multinomial Logistic Regression & Bootstrapping for Bayesian Estimation of Vertical Facies Prediction in Heterogeneous Sandstone Reservoirs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Mudhafar, W. J.

    2013-12-01

    Precisely prediction of rock facies leads to adequate reservoir characterization by improving the porosity-permeability relationships to estimate the properties in non-cored intervals. It also helps to accurately identify the spatial facies distribution to perform an accurate reservoir model for optimal future reservoir performance. In this paper, the facies estimation has been done through Multinomial logistic regression (MLR) with respect to the well logs and core data in a well in upper sandstone formation of South Rumaila oil field. The entire independent variables are gamma rays, formation density, water saturation, shale volume, log porosity, core porosity, and core permeability. Firstly, Robust Sequential Imputation Algorithm has been considered to impute the missing data. This algorithm starts from a complete subset of the dataset and estimates sequentially the missing values in an incomplete observation by minimizing the determinant of the covariance of the augmented data matrix. Then, the observation is added to the complete data matrix and the algorithm continues with the next observation with missing values. The MLR has been chosen to estimate the maximum likelihood and minimize the standard error for the nonlinear relationships between facies & core and log data. The MLR is used to predict the probabilities of the different possible facies given each independent variable by constructing a linear predictor function having a set of weights that are linearly combined with the independent variables by using a dot product. Beta distribution of facies has been considered as prior knowledge and the resulted predicted probability (posterior) has been estimated from MLR based on Baye's theorem that represents the relationship between predicted probability (posterior) with the conditional probability and the prior knowledge. To assess the statistical accuracy of the model, the bootstrap should be carried out to estimate extra-sample prediction error by randomly

  19. Comparing Johnson’s SBB, Weibull and Logit-Logistic bivariate distributions for modeling tree diameters and heights using copulas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cardil Forradellas, A.; Molina Terrén, D.M.; Oliveres, J.; Castellnou, M.

    2016-07-01

    Aim of study: In this study we compare the accuracy of three bivariate distributions: Johnson’s SBB, Weibull-2P and LL-2P functions for characterizing the joint distribution of tree diameters and heights. Area of study: North-West of Spain. Material and methods: Diameter and height measurements of 128 plots of pure and even-aged Tasmanian blue gum (Eucalyptus globulus Labill.) stands located in the North-west of Spain were considered in the present study. The SBB bivariate distribution was obtained from SB marginal distributions using a Normal Copula based on a four-parameter logistic transformation. The Plackett Copula was used to obtain the bivariate models from the Weibull and Logit-logistic univariate marginal distributions. The negative logarithm of the maximum likelihood function was used to compare the results and the Wilcoxon signed-rank test was used to compare the related samples of these logarithms calculated for each sample plot and each distribution. Main results: The best results were obtained by using the Plackett copula and the best marginal distribution was the Logit-logistic. Research highlights: The copulas used in this study have shown a good performance for modeling the joint distribution of tree diameters and heights. They could be easily extended for modelling multivariate distributions involving other tree variables, such as tree volume or biomass. (Author)

  20. Analyzing Korean consumers’ latent preferences for electricity generation sources with a hierarchical Bayesian logit model in a discrete choice experiment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Byun, Hyunsuk; Lee, Chul-Yong

    2017-01-01

    Generally, consumers use electricity without considering the source the electricity was generated from. Since different energy sources exert varying effects on society, it is necessary to analyze consumers’ latent preference for electricity generation sources. The present study estimates Korean consumers’ marginal utility and an appropriate generation mix is derived using the hierarchical Bayesian logit model in a discrete choice experiment. The results show that consumers consider the danger posed by the source of electricity as the most important factor among the effects of electricity generation sources. Additionally, Korean consumers wish to reduce the contribution of nuclear power from the existing 32–11%, and increase that of renewable energy from the existing 4–32%. - Highlights: • We derive an electricity mix reflecting Korean consumers’ latent preferences. • We use the discrete choice experiment and hierarchical Bayesian logit model. • The danger posed by the generation source is the most important attribute. • The consumers wish to increase the renewable energy proportion from 4.3% to 32.8%. • Korea's cost-oriented energy supply policy and consumers’ preference differ markedly.

  1. Brand Choice Modeling Modeling Toothpaste Brand Choice: An Empirical Comparison of Artificial Neural Networks and Multinomial Probit Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tolga Kaya

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study is to compare the performances of Artificial Neural Networks (ANN and Multinomial Probit (MNP approaches in modeling the choice decision within fast moving consumer goods sector. To do this, based on 2597 toothpaste purchases of a panel sample of 404 households, choice models are built and their performances are compared on the 861 purchases of a test sample of 135 households. Results show that ANN's predictions are better while MNP is useful in providing marketing insight.

  2. FACTORS THAT AFFECT TRANSPORT MODE PREFERENCE FOR GRADUATE STUDENTS IN THE NATIONAL UNIVERSITY OF MALAYSIA BY LOGIT METHOD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ALI AHMED MOHAMMED

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available A study was carried out to examine the perceptions and preferences of students on choosing the type of transportation for their travels in university campus. This study focused on providing personal transport users road transport alternatives as a countermeasure aimed at shifting car users to other modes of transportation. Overall 456 questionnaires were conducted to develop a choice of transportation mode preferences. Consequently, Logit model and SPSS were used to identify the factors that affect the determination of the choice of transportation mode. Results indicated that by reducing travel time by 70% the amount of private cars users will be reduced by 84%, while reduction the travel cost was found to be highly improving the public modes of utilization. This study revealed positive aspects is needed to shift travellers from private modes to public. The positive aspect contributes to travel time and travel cost reduction, hence improving the services, whereby contributing to sustainability.

  3. Analysis of hourly crash likelihood using unbalanced panel data mixed logit model and real-time driving environmental big data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Feng; Chen, Suren; Ma, Xiaoxiang

    2018-06-01

    Driving environment, including road surface conditions and traffic states, often changes over time and influences crash probability considerably. It becomes stretched for traditional crash frequency models developed in large temporal scales to capture the time-varying characteristics of these factors, which may cause substantial loss of critical driving environmental information on crash prediction. Crash prediction models with refined temporal data (hourly records) are developed to characterize the time-varying nature of these contributing factors. Unbalanced panel data mixed logit models are developed to analyze hourly crash likelihood of highway segments. The refined temporal driving environmental data, including road surface and traffic condition, obtained from the Road Weather Information System (RWIS), are incorporated into the models. Model estimation results indicate that the traffic speed, traffic volume, curvature and chemically wet road surface indicator are better modeled as random parameters. The estimation results of the mixed logit models based on unbalanced panel data show that there are a number of factors related to crash likelihood on I-25. Specifically, weekend indicator, November indicator, low speed limit and long remaining service life of rutting indicator are found to increase crash likelihood, while 5-am indicator and number of merging ramps per lane per mile are found to decrease crash likelihood. The study underscores and confirms the unique and significant impacts on crash imposed by the real-time weather, road surface, and traffic conditions. With the unbalanced panel data structure, the rich information from real-time driving environmental big data can be well incorporated. Copyright © 2018 National Safety Council and Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Modeling the dynamics of urban growth using multinomial logistic regression: a case study of Jiayu County, Hubei Province, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nong, Yu; Du, Qingyun; Wang, Kun; Miao, Lei; Zhang, Weiwei

    2008-10-01

    Urban growth modeling, one of the most important aspects of land use and land cover change study, has attracted substantial attention because it helps to comprehend the mechanisms of land use change thus helps relevant policies made. This study applied multinomial logistic regression to model urban growth in the Jiayu county of Hubei province, China to discover the relationship between urban growth and the driving forces of which biophysical and social-economic factors are selected as independent variables. This type of regression is similar to binary logistic regression, but it is more general because the dependent variable is not restricted to two categories, as those previous studies did. The multinomial one can simulate the process of multiple land use competition between urban land, bare land, cultivated land and orchard land. Taking the land use type of Urban as reference category, parameters could be estimated with odds ratio. A probability map is generated from the model to predict where urban growth will occur as a result of the computation.

  5. Logit and probit model in toll sensitivity analysis of Solo-Ngawi, Kartasura-Palang Joglo segment based on Willingness to Pay (WTP)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Handayani, Dewi; Cahyaning Putri, Hera; Mahmudah, AMH

    2017-12-01

    Solo-Ngawi toll road project is part of the mega project of the Trans Java toll road development initiated by the government and is still under construction until now. PT Solo Ngawi Jaya (SNJ) as the Solo-Ngawi toll management company needs to determine the toll fare that is in accordance with the business plan. The determination of appropriate toll rates will affect progress in regional economic sustainability and decrease the traffic congestion. These policy instruments is crucial for achieving environmentally sustainable transport. Therefore, the objective of this research is to find out how the toll fare sensitivity of Solo-Ngawi toll road based on Willingness To Pay (WTP). Primary data was obtained by distributing stated preference questionnaires to four wheeled vehicle users in Kartasura-Palang Joglo artery road segment. Further data obtained will be analysed with logit and probit model. Based on the analysis, it is found that the effect of fare change on the amount of WTP on the binomial logit model is more sensitive than the probit model on the same travel conditions. The range of tariff change against values of WTP on the binomial logit model is 20% greater than the range of values in the probit model . On the other hand, the probability results of the binomial logit model and the binary probit have no significant difference (less than 1%).

  6. UN MODELO LOGIT PARA LA FRAGILIDAD DEL SISTEMA FINANCIERO VENEZOLANO DENTRO DEL CONTEXTO DE LOS PROCESOS DE FUSIÓN E INTERVENCIÓN | A LOGIT APPROACH OF THE VENEZUELAN FINANCIAL SYSTEM WITHIN THE CONTEXT OF MERGER AND INTERVENTION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    César Rubicundo

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available In Venezuela there have been more than 30 mergers, after the approval of the Banking Act in 1999, since from 103 institutions, the financial system closed the year 2013 with 35 brokerage firms, which represents a decrease of 66% due to 20 coalitions, 30 transformations and 18 settlements. Therefore, an analysis is proposed of the current economic situation of the financial system in the context of mergers and interventions, considering internal and external factors according to the constituted capital. The study was based on information from 37 private capital institutions and 04 public institutions, between January 2009 and December 2013. The previous analysis for privately held banks, showed that these institutions have a 78.40% chance of not incurring in situations of fragility; while the State capital banks have 83.30% of surviving in the market. As for the estimated logit models, it was found that the liquidity ratio, ROE, management index and inflation, are components that push towards a fragile situation for privately held banks, with a probability forecast of fragility. With regard to the state capital banks, this situation is explained by a 62.50% equity index, ROE, and inflation. A probability of stability for these banks is expected. The joint model forecasted a probability of a stable financial system for the coming months.

  7. Revealing additional preference heterogeneity with an extended random parameter logit model: the case of extra virgin olive oil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmed Yangui

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Methods that account for preference heterogeneity have received a significant amount of attention in recent literature. Most of them have focused on preference heterogeneity around the mean of the random parameters, which has been specified as a function of socio-demographic characteristics. This paper aims at analyzing consumers’ preferences towards extra-virgin olive oil in Catalonia using a methodological framework with two novelties over past studies: 1 it accounts for both preference heterogeneity around the mean and the variance; and 2 it considers both socio-demographic characteristics of consumers as well as their attitudinal factors. Estimated coefficients and moments of willingness to pay (WTP distributions are compared with those obtained from alternative Random Parameter Logit (RPL models. Results suggest that the proposed framework increases the goodness-of-fit and provides more useful insights for policy analysis. The most important attributes affecting consumers’ preferences towards extra virgin olive oil are the price and the product’s origin. The consumers perceive the organic olive oil attribute negatively, as they think that it is not worth paying a premium for a product that is healthy in nature.

  8. How bicycle level of traffic stress correlate with reported cyclist accidents injury severities: A geospatial and mixed logit analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Chen; Anderson, Jason C; Wang, Haizhong; Wang, Yinhai; Vogt, Rachel; Hernandez, Salvador

    2017-11-01

    Transportation agencies need efficient methods to determine how to reduce bicycle accidents while promoting cycling activities and prioritizing safety improvement investments. Many studies have used standalone methods, such as level of traffic stress (LTS) and bicycle level of service (BLOS), to better understand bicycle mode share and network connectivity for a region. However, in most cases, other studies rely on crash severity models to explain what variables contribute to the severity of bicycle related crashes. This research uniquely correlates bicycle LTS with reported bicycle crash locations for four cities in New Hampshire through geospatial mapping. LTS measurements and crash locations are compared visually using a GIS framework. Next, a bicycle injury severity model, that incorporates LTS measurements, is created through a mixed logit modeling framework. Results of the visual analysis show some geospatial correlation between higher LTS roads and "Injury" type bicycle crashes. It was determined, statistically, that LTS has an effect on the severity level of bicycle crashes and high LTS can have varying effects on severity outcome. However, it is recommended that further analyses be conducted to better understand the statistical significance and effect of LTS on injury severity. As such, this research will validate the use of LTS as a proxy for safety risk regardless of the recorded bicycle crash history. This research will help identify the clustering patterns of bicycle crashes on high-risk corridors and, therefore, assist with bicycle route planning and policy making. This paper also suggests low-cost countermeasures or treatments that can be implemented to address high-risk areas. Specifically, with the goal of providing safer routes for cyclists, such countermeasures or treatments have the potential to substantially reduce the number of fatalities and severe injuries. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  9. Insights into the latent multinomial model through mark-resight data on female grizzly bears with cubs-of-the-year

    Science.gov (United States)

    Higgs, Megan D.; Link, William; White, Gary C.; Haroldson, Mark A.; Bjornlie, Daniel D.

    2013-01-01

    Mark-resight designs for estimation of population abundance are common and attractive to researchers. However, inference from such designs is very limited when faced with sparse data, either from a low number of marked animals, a low probability of detection, or both. In the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, yearly mark-resight data are collected for female grizzly bears with cubs-of-the-year (FCOY), and inference suffers from both limitations. To overcome difficulties due to sparseness, we assume homogeneity in sighting probabilities over 16 years of bi-annual aerial surveys. We model counts of marked and unmarked animals as multinomial random variables, using the capture frequencies of marked animals for inference about the latent multinomial frequencies for unmarked animals. We discuss undesirable behavior of the commonly used discrete uniform prior distribution on the population size parameter and provide OpenBUGS code for fitting such models. The application provides valuable insights into subtleties of implementing Bayesian inference for latent multinomial models. We tie the discussion to our application, though the insights are broadly useful for applications of the latent multinomial model.

  10. Measuring Response Styles Across the Big Five: A Multiscale Extension of an Approach Using Multinomial Processing Trees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khorramdel, Lale; von Davier, Matthias

    2014-01-01

    This study shows how to address the problem of trait-unrelated response styles (RS) in rating scales using multidimensional item response theory. The aim is to test and correct data for RS in order to provide fair assessments of personality. Expanding on an approach presented by Böckenholt (2012), observed rating data are decomposed into multiple response processes based on a multinomial processing tree. The data come from a questionnaire consisting of 50 items of the International Personality Item Pool measuring the Big Five dimensions administered to 2,026 U.S. students with a 5-point rating scale. It is shown that this approach can be used to test if RS exist in the data and that RS can be differentiated from trait-related responses. Although the extreme RS appear to be unidimensional after exclusion of only 1 item, a unidimensional measure for the midpoint RS is obtained only after exclusion of 10 items. Both RS measurements show high cross-scale correlations and item response theory-based (marginal) reliabilities. Cultural differences could be found in giving extreme responses. Moreover, it is shown how to score rating data to correct for RS after being proved to exist in the data.

  11. A general equation to obtain multiple cut-off scores on a test from multinomial logistic regression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bersabé, Rosa; Rivas, Teresa

    2010-05-01

    The authors derive a general equation to compute multiple cut-offs on a total test score in order to classify individuals into more than two ordinal categories. The equation is derived from the multinomial logistic regression (MLR) model, which is an extension of the binary logistic regression (BLR) model to accommodate polytomous outcome variables. From this analytical procedure, cut-off scores are established at the test score (the predictor variable) at which an individual is as likely to be in category j as in category j+1 of an ordinal outcome variable. The application of the complete procedure is illustrated by an example with data from an actual study on eating disorders. In this example, two cut-off scores on the Eating Attitudes Test (EAT-26) scores are obtained in order to classify individuals into three ordinal categories: asymptomatic, symptomatic and eating disorder. Diagnoses were made from the responses to a self-report (Q-EDD) that operationalises DSM-IV criteria for eating disorders. Alternatives to the MLR model to set multiple cut-off scores are discussed.

  12. Measuring decision weights in recognition experiments with multiple response alternatives: comparing the correlation and multinomial-logistic-regression methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dai, Huanping; Micheyl, Christophe

    2012-11-01

    Psychophysical "reverse-correlation" methods allow researchers to gain insight into the perceptual representations and decision weighting strategies of individual subjects in perceptual tasks. Although these methods have gained momentum, until recently their development was limited to experiments involving only two response categories. Recently, two approaches for estimating decision weights in m-alternative experiments have been put forward. One approach extends the two-category correlation method to m > 2 alternatives; the second uses multinomial logistic regression (MLR). In this article, the relative merits of the two methods are discussed, and the issues of convergence and statistical efficiency of the methods are evaluated quantitatively using Monte Carlo simulations. The results indicate that, for a range of values of the number of trials, the estimated weighting patterns are closer to their asymptotic values for the correlation method than for the MLR method. Moreover, for the MLR method, weight estimates for different stimulus components can exhibit strong correlations, making the analysis and interpretation of measured weighting patterns less straightforward than for the correlation method. These and other advantages of the correlation method, which include computational simplicity and a close relationship to other well-established psychophysical reverse-correlation methods, make it an attractive tool to uncover decision strategies in m-alternative experiments.

  13. Para Krizleri Öngörüsünde Logit Model ve Sinyal Yaklaşımının Değeri: Türkiye Tecrübesi

    OpenAIRE

    Kaya, Vedat; Yilmaz, Omer

    2007-01-01

    Logit model and the signal approach are two analysis methods being commonly used to forecast and explain currency crises. Logit model is successful to determine explaining variables of crisis and to calculate the probability of crisis in particular during the period experienced with a crisis. On the other hand, the signal approach aims at determining any possible currency crisis in advance, following some variables showing unusual change over the periods of economic fluctuation and thus it pr...

  14. Reproductive risk factors assessment for anaemia among pregnant women in India using a multinomial logistic regression model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perumal, Vanamail

    2014-07-01

    To assess reproductive risk factors for anaemia among pregnant women in urban and rural areas of India. The International Institute of Population Sciences, India, carried out third National Family Health Survey in 2005-2006 to estimate a key indicator from a sample of ever-married women in the reproductive age group 15-49 years. Data on various dimensions were collected using a structured questionnaire, and anaemia was measured using a portable HemoCue instrument. Anaemia prevalence among pregnant women was compared between rural and urban areas using chi-square test and odds ratio. Multinomial logistic regression analysis was used to determine risk factors. Anaemia prevalence was assessed among 3355 pregnant women from rural areas and 1962 pregnant women from urban areas. Moderate-to-severe anaemia in rural areas (32.4%) is significantly more common than in urban areas (27.3%) with an excess risk of 30%. Gestational age specific prevalence of anaemia significantly increases in rural areas after 6 months. Pregnancy duration is a significant risk factor in both urban and rural areas. In rural areas, increasing age at marriage and mass media exposure are significant protective factors of anaemia. However, more births in the last five years, alcohol consumption and smoking habits are significant risk factors. In rural areas, various reproductive factors and lifestyle characteristics constitute significant risk factors for moderate-to-severe anaemia. Therefore, intensive health education on reproductive practices and the impact of lifestyle characteristics are warranted to reduce anaemia prevalence. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  15. Radiation effects on cancer mortality among A-bomb survivors, 1950-72. Comparison of some statistical models and analysis based on the additive logit model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Otake, M [Hiroshima Univ. (Japan). Faculty of Science

    1976-12-01

    Various statistical models designed to determine the effects of radiation dose on mortality of atomic bomb survivors in Hiroshima and Nagasaki from specific cancers were evaluated on the basis of a basic k(age) x c(dose) x 2 contingency table. From the aspects of application and fits of different models, analysis based on the additive logit model was applied to the mortality experience of this population during the 22year period from 1 Oct. 1950 to 31 Dec. 1972. The advantages and disadvantages of the additive logit model were demonstrated. Leukemia mortality showed a sharp rise with an increase in dose. The dose response relationship suggests a possible curvature or a log linear model, particularly if the dose estimated to be more than 600 rad were set arbitrarily at 600 rad, since the average dose in the 200+ rad group would then change from 434 to 350 rad. In the 22year period from 1950 to 1972, a high mortality risk due to radiation was observed in survivors with doses of 200 rad and over for all cancers except leukemia. On the other hand, during the latest period from 1965 to 1972 a significant risk was noted also for stomach and breast cancers. Survivors who were 9 year old or less at the time of the bomb and who were exposed to high doses of 200+ rad appeared to show a high mortality risk for all cancers except leukemia, although the number of observed deaths is yet small. A number of interesting areas are discussed from the statistical and epidemiological standpoints, i.e., the numerical comparison of risks in various models, the general evaluation of cancer mortality by the additive logit model, the dose response relationship, the relative risk in the high dose group, the time period of radiation induced cancer mortality, the difference of dose response between Hiroshima and Nagasaki and the relative biological effectiveness of neutrons.

  16. Disposición a pagar por reducir el tiempo de viaje en Tunja (Colombia): Comparación entre estudiantes y trabajadores con un modelo Logit mixto

    OpenAIRE

    Luis Gabriel Márquez Díaz

    2013-01-01

    Resumen: El estudio analiza la diferencia en la disposición a pagar de estudiantes y trabajadores por reducir el tiempo de viaje, en un contexto de elección de modo de transporte para la ciudad de Tunja (Colombia). Se utilizó un modelo logit mixto, calibrado con datos provenientes de una encuesta de preferencias declaradas. La especificación del modelo supuso la variación aleatoria de los coeficientes del tiempo de acceso, tiempo de espera y tiempo de viaje. Se encontró que la disposición a p...

  17. "Logits and Tigers and Bears, Oh My! A Brief Look at the Simple Math of Logistic Regression and How It Can Improve Dissemination of Results"

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jason W. Osborne

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Logistic regression is slowly gaining acceptance in the social sciences, and fills an important niche in the researcher's toolkit: being able to predict important outcomes that are not continuous in nature. While OLS regression is a valuable tool, it cannot routinely be used to predict outcomes that are binary or categorical in nature. These outcomes represent important social science lines of research: retention in, or dropout from school, using illicit drugs, underage alcohol consumption, antisocial behavior, purchasing decisions, voting patterns, risky behavior, and so on. The goal of this paper is to briefly lead the reader through the surprisingly simple mathematics that underpins logistic regression: probabilities, odds, odds ratios, and logits. Anyone with spreadsheet software or a scientific calculator can follow along, and in turn, this knowledge can be used to make much more interesting, clear, and accurate presentations of results (especially to non-technical audiences. In particular, I will share an example of an interaction in logistic regression, how it was originally graphed, and how the graph was made substantially more user-friendly by converting the original metric (logits to a more readily interpretable metric (probability through three simple steps.

  18. Evaluating risk factors for endemic human Salmonella Enteritidis infections with different phage types in Ontario, Canada using multinomial logistic regression and a case-case study approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Varga Csaba

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Identifying risk factors for Salmonella Enteritidis (SE infections in Ontario will assist public health authorities to design effective control and prevention programs to reduce the burden of SE infections. Our research objective was to identify risk factors for acquiring SE infections with various phage types (PT in Ontario, Canada. We hypothesized that certain PTs (e.g., PT8 and PT13a have specific risk factors for infection. Methods Our study included endemic SE cases with various PTs whose isolates were submitted to the Public Health Laboratory-Toronto from January 20th to August 12th, 2011. Cases were interviewed using a standardized questionnaire that included questions pertaining to demographics, travel history, clinical symptoms, contact with animals, and food exposures. A multinomial logistic regression method using the Generalized Linear Latent and Mixed Model procedure and a case-case study design were used to identify risk factors for acquiring SE infections with various PTs in Ontario, Canada. In the multinomial logistic regression model, the outcome variable had three categories representing human infections caused by SE PT8, PT13a, and all other SE PTs (i.e., non-PT8/non-PT13a as a referent category to which the other two categories were compared. Results In the multivariable model, SE PT8 was positively associated with contact with dogs (OR=2.17, 95% CI 1.01-4.68 and negatively associated with pepper consumption (OR=0.35, 95% CI 0.13-0.94, after adjusting for age categories and gender, and using exposure periods and health regions as random effects to account for clustering. Conclusions Our study findings offer interesting hypotheses about the role of phage type-specific risk factors. Multinomial logistic regression analysis and the case-case study approach are novel methodologies to evaluate associations among SE infections with different PTs and various risk factors.

  19. Multinomial model and zero-inflated gamma model to study time spent on leisure time physical activity: an example of ELSA-Brasil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nobre, Aline Araújo; Carvalho, Marilia Sá; Griep, Rosane Härter; Fonseca, Maria de Jesus Mendes da; Melo, Enirtes Caetano Prates; Santos, Itamar de Souza; Chor, Dora

    2017-08-17

    To compare two methodological approaches: the multinomial model and the zero-inflated gamma model, evaluating the factors associated with the practice and amount of time spent on leisure time physical activity. Data collected from 14,823 baseline participants in the Longitudinal Study of Adult Health (ELSA-Brasil - Estudo Longitudinal de Saúde do Adulto ) have been analysed. Regular leisure time physical activity has been measured using the leisure time physical activity module of the International Physical Activity Questionnaire. The explanatory variables considered were gender, age, education level, and annual per capita family income. The main advantage of the zero-inflated gamma model over the multinomial model is that it estimates mean time (minutes per week) spent on leisure time physical activity. For example, on average, men spent 28 minutes/week longer on leisure time physical activity than women did. The most sedentary groups were young women with low education level and income. The zero-inflated gamma model, which is rarely used in epidemiological studies, can give more appropriate answers in several situations. In our case, we have obtained important information on the main determinants of the duration of leisure time physical activity. This information can help guide efforts towards the most vulnerable groups since physical inactivity is associated with different diseases and even premature death.

  20. Multinomial model and zero-inflated gamma model to study time spent on leisure time physical activity: an example of ELSA-Brasil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aline Araújo Nobre

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To compare two methodological approaches: the multinomial model and the zero-inflated gamma model, evaluating the factors associated with the practice and amount of time spent on leisure time physical activity. METHODS Data collected from 14,823 baseline participants in the Longitudinal Study of Adult Health (ELSA-Brasil – Estudo Longitudinal de Saúde do Adulto have been analysed. Regular leisure time physical activity has been measured using the leisure time physical activity module of the International Physical Activity Questionnaire. The explanatory variables considered were gender, age, education level, and annual per capita family income. RESULTS The main advantage of the zero-inflated gamma model over the multinomial model is that it estimates mean time (minutes per week spent on leisure time physical activity. For example, on average, men spent 28 minutes/week longer on leisure time physical activity than women did. The most sedentary groups were young women with low education level and income CONCLUSIONS The zero-inflated gamma model, which is rarely used in epidemiological studies, can give more appropriate answers in several situations. In our case, we have obtained important information on the main determinants of the duration of leisure time physical activity. This information can help guide efforts towards the most vulnerable groups since physical inactivity is associated with different diseases and even premature death.

  1. The multivariate Dirichlet-multinomial distribution and its application in forensic genetics to adjust for subpopulation effects using the θ-correction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tvedebrink, Torben; Eriksen, Poul Svante; Morling, Niels

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, we discuss the construction of a multivariate generalisation of the Dirichlet-multinomial distribution. An example from forensic genetics in the statistical analysis of DNA mixtures motivates the study of this multivariate extension. In forensic genetics, adjustment of the match...... probabilities due to remote ancestry in the population is often done using the so-called θ-correction. This correction increases the probability of observing multiple copies of rare alleles in a subpopulation and thereby reduces the weight of the evidence for rare genotypes. A recent publication by Cowell et al....... (2015) showed elegantly how to use Bayesian networks for efficient computations of likelihood ratios in a forensic genetic context. However, their underlying population genetic model assumed independence of alleles, which is not realistic in real populations. We demonstrate how the so-called θ...

  2. Disposición a pagar por reducir el tiempo de viaje en Tunja (Colombia: Comparación entre estudiantes y trabajadores con un modelo Logit mixto

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luis Gabriel Marquez Diaz

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Resumen: El estudio analiza la diferencia en la disposición a pagar de estudiantes y trabajadores por reducir el tiempo de viaje, en un contexto de elección de modo de transporte para la ciudad de Tunja (Colombia. Se utilizó un modelo logit mixto, calibrado con datos provenientes de una encuesta de preferencias declaradas. La especificación del modelo supuso la variación aleatoria de los coeficientes del tiempo de acceso, tiempo de espera y tiempo de viaje. Se encontró que la disposición a pagar por reducir el tiempo de viaje es de 38.14 $/min para estudiantes, siendo 23% mayor para trabajadores de menor ingreso y 73% mayor para los trabajadores de mayor ingreso. Se determinó que el valor del tiempo de espera es 1.95 veces mayor que el tiempo viaje, en tanto que el tiempo de acceso mantiene una relación de 1 a 2.57 con respecto al tiempo de viaje, la cual se considera válida únicamente para el contexto estudiado.

  3. Prevalence and Predictors of Pre-Diabetes and Diabetes among Adults 18 Years or Older in Florida: A Multinomial Logistic Modeling Approach.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ifechukwude Obiamaka Okwechime

    Full Text Available Individuals with pre-diabetes and diabetes have increased risks of developing macro-vascular complications including heart disease and stroke; which are the leading causes of death globally. The objective of this study was to estimate the prevalence of pre-diabetes and diabetes, and to investigate their predictors among adults ≥18 years in Florida.Data covering the time period January-December 2013, were obtained from Florida's Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS. Survey design of the study was declared using SVYSET statement of STATA 13.1. Descriptive analyses were performed to estimate the prevalence of pre-diabetes and diabetes. Predictors of pre-diabetes and diabetes were investigated using multinomial logistic regression model. Model goodness-of-fit was evaluated using both the multinomial goodness-of-fit test proposed by Fagerland, Hosmer, and Bofin, as well as, the Hosmer-Lemeshow's goodness of fit test.There were approximately 2,983 (7.3% and 5,189 (12.1% adults in Florida diagnosed with pre-diabetes and diabetes, respectively. Over half of the study respondents were white, married and over the age of 45 years while 36.4% reported being physically inactive, overweight (36.4% or obese (26.4%, hypertensive (34.6%, hypercholesteremic (40.3%, and 26% were arthritic. Based on the final multivariable multinomial model, only being overweight (Relative Risk Ratio [RRR] = 1.85, 95% Confidence Interval [95% CI] = 1.41, 2.42, obese (RRR = 3.41, 95% CI = 2.61, 4.45, hypertensive (RRR = 1.69, 95% CI = 1.33, 2.15, hypercholesterolemic (RRR = 1.94, 95% CI = 1.55, 2.43, and arthritic (RRR = 1.24, 95% CI = 1.00, 1.55 had significant associations with pre-diabetes. However, more predictors had significant associations with diabetes and the strengths of associations tended to be higher than for the association with pre-diabetes. For instance, the relative risk ratios for the association between diabetes and being overweight (RRR = 2.00, 95

  4. Getting the right balance? A mixed logit analysis of the relationship between UK training doctors' characteristics and their specialties using the 2013 National Training Survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez Santana, Idaira; Chalkley, Martin

    2017-08-11

    To analyse how training doctors' demographic and socioeconomic characteristics vary according to the specialty that they are training for. Descriptive statistics and mixed logistic regression analysis of cross-sectional survey data to quantify evidence of systematic relationships between doctors' characteristics and their specialty. Doctors in training in the United Kingdom in 2013. 27 530 doctors in training but not in their foundation year who responded to the National Training Survey 2013. Mixed logit regression estimates and the corresponding odds ratios (calculated separately for all doctors in training and a subsample comprising those educated in the UK), relating gender, age, ethnicity, place of studies, socioeconomic background and parental education to the probability of training for a particular specialty. Being female and being white British increase the chances of being in general practice with respect to any other specialty, while coming from a better-off socioeconomic background and having parents with tertiary education have the opposite effect. Mixed results are found for age and place of studies. For example, the difference between men and women is greatest for surgical specialties for which a man is 12.121 times more likely to be training to a surgical specialty (relative to general practice) than a woman (p-valuevalue<0.01). There are systematic and substantial differences between specialties in respect of training doctors' gender, ethnicity, age and socioeconomic background. The persistent underrepresentation in some specialties of women, minority ethnic groups and of those coming from disadvantaged backgrounds will impact on the representativeness of the profession into the future. Further research is needed to understand how the processes of selection and the self-selection of applicants into specialties gives rise to these observed differences. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article

  5. The Application of Multinomial Logistic Regression Models for the Assessment of Parameters of Oocytes and Embryos Quality in Predicting Pregnancy and Miscarriage

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Milewska Anna Justyna

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Infertility is a huge problem nowadays, not only from the medical but also from the social point of view. A key step to improve treatment outcomes is the possibility of effective prediction of treatment result. In a situation when a phenomenon with more than 2 states needs to be explained, e.g. pregnancy, miscarriage, non-pregnancy, the use of multinomial logistic regression is a good solution. The aim of this paper is to select those features that have a significant impact on achieving clinical pregnancy as well as those that determine the occurrence of spontaneous miscarriage (non-pregnancy was set as the reference category. Two multi-factor models were obtained, used in predicting infertility treatment outcomes. One of the models enabled to conclude that the number of follicles and the percentage of retrieved mature oocytes have a significant impact when prediction of treatment outcome is made on the basis of information about oocytes. The other model, built on the basis of information about embryos, showed the significance of the number of fertilized oocytes, the percentage of at least 7-cell embryos on day 3, the percentage of blasts on day 5, and the day of transfer.

  6. Expert Elicitation of Multinomial Probabilities for Decision-Analytic Modeling: An Application to Rates of Disease Progression in Undiagnosed and Untreated Melanoma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Edward C F; Usher-Smith, Juliet A; Emery, Jon; Corrie, Pippa G; Walter, Fiona M

    2018-06-01

    Expert elicitation is required to inform decision making when relevant "better quality" data either do not exist or cannot be collected. An example of this is to inform decisions as to whether to screen for melanoma. A key input is the counterfactual, in this case the natural history of melanoma in patients who are undiagnosed and hence untreated. To elicit expert opinion on the probability of disease progression in patients with melanoma that is undetected and hence untreated. A bespoke webinar-based expert elicitation protocol was administered to 14 participants in the United Kingdom, Australia, and New Zealand, comprising 12 multinomial questions on the probability of progression from one disease stage to another in the absence of treatment. A modified Connor-Mosimann distribution was fitted to individual responses to each question. Individual responses were pooled using a Monte-Carlo simulation approach. Participants were asked to provide feedback on the process. A pooled modified Connor-Mosimann distribution was successfully derived from participants' responses. Feedback from participants was generally positive, with 86% willing to take part in such an exercise again. Nevertheless, only 57% of participants felt that this was a valid approach to determine the risk of disease progression. Qualitative feedback reflected some understanding of the need to rely on expert elicitation in the absence of "hard" data. We successfully elicited and pooled the beliefs of experts in melanoma regarding the probability of disease progression in a format suitable for inclusion in a decision-analytic model. Copyright © 2018 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Valoração de contingente pelas modelagens logit e análise multivariada: um estudo de caso da disposição a aceitar compensação dos cafeicultores vinculados ao PRO-CAFÉ de Viçosa - MG Contingent valuation with modeling logit and multivariate analyses: a case study of the willingness of coffee planters linked to the PRO-COFFEE of Viçosa - MG to accept compensation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pedro Silveira Máximo

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available O objetivo deste estudo foi, justamente, identificar, entre os métodos LOGIT e a análise multivariada, qual a mais eficaz para estimar a Disposição a Aceitar Compensação (DAC dos cafeicultores quando o viés da utilidade marginal é passível de ocorrência. Para tal, foi elaborado um formulário com 33 perguntas envolvendo informações sobre características socioeconômicas dos cafeicultores, o uso da metodologia de valoração de contingente (MVC e do veículo de pagamento dos "Jogos de Lances", que revelou a Disposição a Aceitar uma Compensação (DAC na troca de um hectare de café por um hectare de mata. Como esperado, por causa do viés da utilidade marginal o método LOGIT foi incapaz de produzir resultados consistentes. Já a estimação da DAC pela análise multivariada mostrou que, caso o governo estivesse disposto a aumentar a provisão de mata em 70 ha, ele deveria despender 254.200 reais por ano, tratando apenas dos cafeicultores vinculados ao programa do PRO-CAFÉ.The object of this study was to identify which method, either LOGIT or multivariate analyses, was the most efficient to estimate the coffee planters' Willingness to Accept a Compensation, when there was a possibility of occurrence of marginal utility. For such, a questionnaire was formulated, with 33 questions involving information on coffee planters' socio - economic characteristics, the use of the methodology of contingent valuation (MCV, and the payment of the "offer game" that reveled the willingness to accept a compensation (WAC, by exchanging a hectare of coffee by a hectare of forest. As expected, because of the marginal utility's bias, the LOGIT method was unable to produce consistent results. However, when the WAC was estimated by multivariate analyses, the results showed that if the government is willing to increase the provision of forest to 70 hectares, it should pay out 254,200 reais (around 116,000 dollars, dealing only with the coffee planters

  8. Patterns and correlates of solid waste disposal practices in Dar es ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    USER

    collection. Key words: Solid waste, garbage, waste disposal, waste management, Multinomial Logit model. INTRODUCTION. Urbanization introduces society to a new, modern way of ..... Multinomial logistic estimation. .... The trend of using.

  9. Random Coefficient Logit Model for Large Datasets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C. Hernández-Mireles (Carlos); D. Fok (Dennis)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractWe present an approach for analyzing market shares and products price elasticities based on large datasets containing aggregate sales data for many products, several markets and for relatively long time periods. We consider the recently proposed Bayesian approach of Jiang et al [Jiang,

  10. Logit Analysis for Profit Maximizing Loan Classification

    OpenAIRE

    Watt, David L.; Mortensen, Timothy L.; Leistritz, F. Larry

    1988-01-01

    Lending criteria and loan classification methods are developed. Rating system breaking points are analyzed to present a method to maximize loan revenues. Financial characteristics of farmers are used as determinants of delinquency in a multivariate logistic model. Results indicate that debt-to-asset and operating ration are most indicative of default.

  11. Multinomial malware classification based on call graphs

    OpenAIRE

    Østbye, Morten Oscar

    2017-01-01

    Ever since the computer was invented, people have found ways to evolve interaction or simplify tasks with computational resources, this for both good and bad. For the known lifespan of the digital age, malicious software (malware) has been a constant threat to computer systems. Malware has been the cause of enormous damage related to both governmental and private sectors, but also for individuals. Malware has evolved to target different systems and environments and therefore there exists a va...

  12. Heterogeneous Impact of the “Seguro Popular” Program on the Utilization of Obstetrical Services in Mexico, 2001–2006: A Multinomial Probit Model with a Discrete Endogenous Variable

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sosa-Rubi, Sandra G.; Galárraga, Omar

    2009-01-01

    Objective We evaluated the impact of Seguro Popular (SP), a program introduced in 2001 in Mexico primarily to finance health care for the poor. We focused on the effect of household enrollment in SP on pregnant women’s access to obstetrical services, an important outcome measure of both maternal and infant health. Data We relied upon data from the cross-sectional 2006 National Health and Nutrition Survey (ENSANUT) in Mexico. We analyzed the responses of 3,890 women who delivered babies during 2001–2006 and whose households lacked employer-based health care coverage. Methods We formulated a multinomial probit model that distinguished between three mutually exclusive sites for delivering a baby: a health unit specifically accredited by SP; a non-SP-accredited clinic run by the Department of Health (Secretaría de Salud, or SSA); and private obstetrical care. Our model accounted for the endogeneity of the household’s binary decision to enroll in the SP program. Results Women in households that participated in the SP program had a much stronger preference for having a baby in a SP-sponsored unit rather than paying out of pocket for a private delivery. At the same time, participation in SP was associated with a stronger preference for delivering in the private sector rather than at a state-run SSA clinic. On balance, the Seguro Popular program reduced pregnant women’s attendance at an SSA clinic much more than it reduced the probability of delivering a baby in the private sector. The quantitative impact of the SP program varied with the woman’s education and health, as well as the assets and location (rural versus urban) of the household. Conclusions The SP program had a robust, significantly positive impact on access to obstetrical services. Our finding that women enrolled in SP switched from non-SP state-run facilities, rather than from out-of-pocket private services, is important for public policy and requires further exploration. PMID:18824268

  13. 630 understanding farmers' response to climate variability in nigeria

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Osondu

    Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, and multinomial logit models. Farmers used multiple adaptation strategies; Crop Diversification (CD), Soil ... Increases in temperature, cloud ... and the effect of climate elements and their extreme ...

  14. Labour market transitions and job satisfaction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    G.E. Bijwaard (Govert); A. van Dijk (Bram); J. de Koning (Jaap)

    2003-01-01

    textabstractThe paper investigates the relationship between job satisfaction and labour market transitions. Using a multinomial logit model, a model is estimated on the basis of individual data in which transitions are explained from individual characteristics, job characteristics, dissatisfaction

  15. Determinants of agricultural micro-credit repayment-evidence from ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Agro-Science ... for the study while descriptive statistics and multinomial binary logit model were employed for data analyses. ... on long term funds (without prejudice to the existing revolving loan mechanism) such as the pension contributions, ...

  16. Memprediksi Financial Distress dengan Binary Logit Regression Perusahaan Telekomunikasi

    OpenAIRE

    antikasari, tiara widya; Djuminah, Djuminah

    2017-01-01

    In this globalization era, sub–sector telecommunication industry has rapid development as time goes by with the number of customers’ growth. However, its growth is not balanced with operational revenue development. Therefore, it is important to analyze the financial distress in telecommunication companies in order to avoid bankruptcy. This research aimed to investigate the effect of financial ratios to predict probability of financial distress. Financial ratios indicator used profitability ra...

  17. Migration of Hispanic Youth and Poverty Status: A Logit Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson-Figueroa, Maria; And Others

    The research investigated whether poor Hispanic youth exhibited less migration than nonpoor Hispanic youth. The hypothesis was that migration is a means to escape poverty, although poverty acts as an inhibitor to migration. The data for the study were derived from The Youth Cohort of the National Longitudinal Survey (NLS/Y) and the 1988 County and…

  18. MEMPREDIKSI FINANCIAL DISTRESS DENGAN BINARY LOGIT REGRESSION PERUSAHAAN TELEKOMUNIKASI

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tiara Widya Antikasari

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available In this globalization era, sub–sector telecommunication industry has rapid development as time goes by with the number of customers’ growth. However, its growth is not balanced with operational revenue development. Therefore, it is important to analyze the financial distress in telecommunication companies in order to avoid bankruptcy. This research aimed to investigate the effect of financial ratios to predict probability of financial distress. Financial ratios indicator used profitability ratio, liquidity ratio, activity ratio, and leverage ratio. The population in this research was telecommunication companies listed in the Indonesia Stock Exchange periods 2009-2016. Based on purposive sampling method, the criteria of financial distress in this study was measured by using net operation negative two years, while statistic analysis used was logistic regression with a significance level of 10%. The result was that liquidity ratio (current ratio and activity ratio (total asset turnover ratio had a negative significant value, and profitability ratio(return on asset and leverage ratio (debt to total asset had positive significant value to predict financial distress.

  19. Logit dynamics for strategic games mixing time and metastability

    OpenAIRE

    Ferraioli, Diodato

    2012-01-01

    2010 - 2011 A complex system is generally de_ned as a system emerging from the interaction of several and di_erent components, each one with their properties and their goals, usually subject to external inuences. Nowadays, complex systems are ubiquitous and they are found in many research areas: examples can be found in Economy (e.g., markets), Physics (e.g., ideal gases, spin systems), Biology (e.g., evolution of life) and Computer Science (e.g., Internet and social network...

  20. Three essays on resource economics. Demand systems for energy forecasting: Practical considerations for estimating a generalized logit model, To borrow or not to borrow: A variation on the MacDougal-Kemp theme, and, Valuing reduced risk for households with children or the retired

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weng, Weifeng

    This thesis presents papers on three areas of study within resource and environmental economics. "Demand Systems For Energy Forecasting" provides some practical considerations for estimating a Generalized Logit model. The main reason for using this demand system for energy and other factors is that the derived price elasticities are robust when expenditure shares are small. The primary objective of the paper is to determine the best form of the cross-price weights, and a simple inverse function of the expenditure share is selected. A second objective is to demonstrate that the estimated elasticities are sensitive to the units specified for the prices, and to show how price scales can be estimated as part of the model. "To Borrow or Not to Borrow: A Variation on the MacDougal-Kemp Theme" studies the impact of international capital movements on the conditional convergence of economies differing from each other only in initial wealth. We found that in assets, income, consumption and utility, convergence obtains, with and only with, the absence of international capital movement. When a rich country invests in a poor country, the balance of debt increases forever. Asset ownership is increased in all periods for the lender, and asset ownership of the borrower is deceased. Also, capital investment decreases the lender's utility for early periods, but increases it forever after a cross-over point. In contrast, the borrower's utility increases for early periods, but then decreases forever. "Valuing Reduced Risk for Households with Children or the Retired" presents a theoretical model of how families value risk and then exams family automobile purchases to impute the average Value of a Statistical Life (VSL) for each type of family. Data for fatal accidents are used to estimate survival rates for individuals in different types of accidents, and the probabilities of having accidents for different types of vehicle. These models are used to determine standardized risks for

  1. —: A Multicategory Brand Equity Model and Its Application at Allstate

    OpenAIRE

    Venkatesh Shankar; Pablo Azar; Matthew Fuller

    2008-01-01

    We develop a robust model for estimating, tracking, and managing brand equity for multicategory brands based on customer survey and financial measures. This model has two components: (1) offering value (computed from discounted cash flow analysis) and (2) relative brand importance (computed from brand choice models such as multinomial logit, heteroscedastic extreme value, and mixed logit). We apply this model to estimate the brand equity of Allstate—a leading insurance company—and its leading...

  2. A Comparison of Alternative Specifications of the College Attendance Equation with an Extension to two-stage Selectivity-Correction Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hilmer, Michael J.

    2001-01-01

    Estimates a college-attendance equation for a common set of students (from the High School and Beyond Survey) using three popular econometric specifications: the multinomial logit, the ordered probit, and the bivariate probit. Estimated marginal effects do not differ significantly across the three specifications. Choice of specification may not…

  3. Multidimensional Computerized Adaptive Testing for Indonesia Junior High School Biology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuo, Bor-Chen; Daud, Muslem; Yang, Chih-Wei

    2015-01-01

    This paper describes a curriculum-based multidimensional computerized adaptive test that was developed for Indonesia junior high school Biology. In adherence to the Indonesian curriculum of different Biology dimensions, 300 items was constructed, and then tested to 2238 students. A multidimensional random coefficients multinomial logit model was…

  4. Why entrepreneurs do not expect their businesses: lessons from Lithuania.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Aidis, R.K.; Mickiewicz, T.

    2006-01-01

    This article applies a multinomial logit estimator to investigate which factors affect SME owners' expectations to grow their businesses in Lithuania. Our findings provide evidence that SME owners' human capital (education) matters and that growth expectations are positively related to exporting. In

  5. Discrete choice models for commuting interactions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rouwendal, Jan; Mulalic, Ismir; Levkovich, Or

    An emerging quantitative spatial economics literature models commuting interactions by a gravity equation that is mathematically equivalent to a multinomial logit model. This model is widely viewed as restrictive because of the independence of irrelevant alternatives (IIA) property that links sub...

  6. Relating cost-benefit analysis results with transport project decisions in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Annema, Jan Anne; Frenken, Koen|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/207145253; Koopmans, Carl; Kroesen, Maarten

    2017-01-01

    This paper relates the cost-benefit analysis (CBA) results of transportation policy proposals in the Netherlands with the decision to implement or abandon the proposal. The aim of this study is to explore the relation between the CBA results and decision-making. Multinomial logit regression models

  7. Relating cost-benefit analysis results with transport project decisions in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Annema, J.A.; Frenken, Koen; Koopmans, Carl; Kroesen, M.

    2017-01-01

    This paper relates the cost-benefit analysis (CBA) results of transportation policy proposals in the Netherlands with the decision to implement or abandon the proposal. The aim of this study is to explore the relation between the CBA results and decision-making. Multinomial logit regression

  8. Has the Euro Affected the Choice of Invoicing Currency?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ligthart, J.E.; Werner, S.E.V.

    2010-01-01

    We present a new approach to study empirically the effect of the introduction of the euro on currency invoicing. Our approach uses a compositional multinomial logit model, in which currency choice depends on the characteristics of both the currency and the country. We use unique quarterly panel data

  9. The joint choice of tenure, dwelling type, size and location: the effect of home-oriented versus culture-oriented lifestyle

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frenkel, Amnon; Kaplan, Sigal

    2014-01-01

    This study investigates knowledge-workers’ housing preferences in terms of tenure, dwelling type, location and size. The analysis is conducted by applying a joint multinomial-logit ordered-response model to the housing choices of knowledgeworkers residing in the Tel-Aviv metropolitan region and w...

  10. Farmers' choice of cattle marketing channels under transaction cost ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The theoretical predictions of transaction cost economics were tested based on primary data collected from 230 cattle farm households in 13 communities of the Okhahlamba Local Municipality. The results of a multinomial logit regression revealed some unique insights. They showed that the probability of selling at auction ...

  11. Ordering the preference hierarchies for internal finance, bank laons, bond and share issue: evidence from Dutch firms

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Haan, L.; Hinloopen, J.

    2003-01-01

    We estimate the incremental financing decision for a sample of some 150 Dutch companies for the years 1984 through 1997, thereby distinguishing internal finance and three types of external finance: bank borrowing, bond issues, and share issues. First, we estimate a multinomial logit model, which

  12. Patterns and correlates of solid waste disposal practices in Dar es ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This study examines the patterns and correlations of solid waste disposal practices among households in urbanized and populated Dar es Salaam city in Tanzania. The Tanzanian Household Budget Survey (HBS) data covering many households' characteristics was used. Multinomial Logit (MNL) model was applied to ...

  13. Saving for Success: Financial Education and Savings Goal Achievement in Individual Development Accounts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grinstead, Mary L.; Mauldin, Teresa; Sabia, Joseph J.; Koonce, Joan; Palmer, Lance

    2011-01-01

    Using microdata from the American Dream Demonstration, the current study examines factors associated with savings and savings goal achievement (indicated by a matched withdrawal) among participants of individual development account (IDA) programs. Multinomial logit results show that hours of participation in financial education programs, higher…

  14. Networks and Selection in International Migration to Spain

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Neubecker, Nina; Smolka, Marcel; Steinbacher, Anne

    This paper provides new evidence on migrant networks as determinants of the scale and skill structure of migration, using aggregate data from a recent migration boom to Spain. We develop a three-level nested multinomial logit migration model. Our model accommodates varying degrees of similarity...

  15. An Analysis of Losses to the Southern Commercial Timberland Base

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ian A. Munn; David Cleaves

    1998-01-01

    Demographic and physical factors influencing the conversion of commercial timberland iu the south to non-forestry uses between the last two Forest Inventory Analysis (FIA) surveys were investigated. GIS techniques linked Census data and FIA plot level data. Multinomial logit regression identified factors associated with losses to the timberland base. Conversion to...

  16. Heterogeneity in urban park use of aging visitors: a latent class analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kemperman, A.D.A.M.; Timmermans, H.J.P.

    2006-01-01

    This study describes and predicts urban parks use patterns for various age groups, with specific attention to the growing group of older adults. Park use intensity of various age groups is described. Subsequently, a multinomial logit model is estimated to describe urban park choice as a function of

  17. The determinants of the location of foreign direct investment in UK regions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dimitropoulou, Dimitra; McCann, Philip; Burke, Simon P.

    2013-01-01

    This article employs a database of over 2000 observations of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) projects in UK regions. We analyse this data by means of various multinomial and conditional logit models in order to identify the major determinants of the location choices of these inward investments.

  18. Entrepreneurial engagement levels in the European Union

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    I. Grilo (Isabel); A.R. Thurik (Roy)

    2005-01-01

    textabstractA multinomial logit model and survey data from the 25 EU member states and the US are used to establish the effect of demographic and other variables on various entrepreneurial engagement levels. These engagement levels range from never thought about starting a business to thinking

  19. Mobility in the Urban Labor Market : A Panel Data Analysis for Mexico

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gong, X.; van Soest, A.H.O.; Villagomez, E.

    2000-01-01

    We analyze mobility in urban Mexico between three labor market states: working in the formal sector, working in the informal sector, and not working. We use a dynamic multinomial logit panel data model with random effects, explaining the labor market state of each individual during each time period.

  20. Employees’ Preferences for more or fewer Working Hours. The Effects of Usual, Contractual and Standard Working Time, Family Phase and Household Characteristics, and Job Satisfaction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tijdens, K.

    2002-01-01

    This study seeks explanations for working time preferences, using cross-sectional multinomial logits for the 2001/2002 Wage Indicator dataset (N=21,727). As expected, the preferences are predominately influenced by working hours’ characteristics, showing that employees with long hours prefer to work

  1. Users evaluation of transport mode characteristics with special attention to public transport

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Waerden, van der P.J.H.J.; Borgers, A.W.J.; Timmermans, H.J.P.; Berenos, M.

    2007-01-01

    The paper focuses on the influence of public transport use on the evaluation of transport mode characteristics. Based on stated choice data, several multinomial logit models that include parameters representing differences between users and non-users of public transport are estimated. The estimation

  2. Choice experiments versus revealed choice models : a before-after study of consumer spatial shopping behavior

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Timmermans, H.J.P.; Borgers, A.W.J.; Waerden, van der P.J.H.J.

    1992-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to compare a set of multinomial logit models derived from revealed choice data and a decompositional choice model derived from experimental data in terms of predictive success in the context of consumer spatial shopping behavior. Data on consumer shopping choice

  3. Cognitive overload? An exploration of the potential impact of cognitive functioning in discrete choice experiments with older people in health care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milte, Rachel; Ratcliffe, Julie; Chen, Gang; Lancsar, Emily; Miller, Michelle; Crotty, Maria

    2014-07-01

    This exploratory study sought to investigate the effect of cognitive functioning on the consistency of individual responses to a discrete choice experiment (DCE) study conducted exclusively with older people. A DCE to investigate preferences for multidisciplinary rehabilitation was administered to a consenting sample of older patients (aged 65 years and older) after surgery to repair a fractured hip (N = 84). Conditional logit, mixed logit, heteroscedastic conditional logit, and generalized multinomial logit regression models were used to analyze the DCE data and to explore the relationship between the level of cognitive functioning (specifically the absence or presence of mild cognitive impairment as assessed by the Mini-Mental State Examination) and preference and scale heterogeneity. Both the heteroscedastic conditional logit and generalized multinomial logit models indicated that the presence of mild cognitive impairment did not have a significant effect on the consistency of responses to the DCE. This study provides important preliminary evidence relating to the effect of mild cognitive impairment on DCE responses for older people. It is important that further research be conducted in larger samples and more diverse populations to further substantiate the findings from this exploratory study and to assess the practicality and validity of the DCE approach with populations of older people. Copyright © 2014 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. A Mixed Logit Model of Homeowner Preferences for Wildfire Hazard Reduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas P. Holmes; John Loomis; Armando Gonzalez-Caban

    2010-01-01

    People living in the wildland-urban interface (WUI) are at greater risk of suffering major losses of property and life from wildfires. Over the past several decades the prevailing view has been that wildfire risk in rural areas was exogenous to the activities of homeowners. In response to catastrophic fires in the WUI over the past few years, recent approaches to fire...

  5. A smooth transition logit model of the effects of deregulation in the electricity market

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hurn, A. Stan; Silvennoinen, Annastiina; Teräsvirta, Timo

    2016-01-01

    of the model are derived along with their asymptotic properties, together with a Lagrange multiplier test of the null hypothesis of linearity in the underlying latent index. The development of the STL model is motivated by the desire to assess the impact of deregulation in the Queensland electricity market...... and ascertain whether increased competition has resulted in significant changes in the behaviour of the spot price of electricity, specifically with respect to the occurrence of periodic abnormally high prices. The model allows the timing of any change to be endogenously determined and also market participants...

  6. Facet-based analysis of vacation planning process : a binary mixed logit panel model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Grigolon, A.B.; Kemperman, A.D.A.M.; Timmermans, H.J.P.

    2013-01-01

    This article documents the design and results of a study on vacation planning processes with a particular focus on aggregate relationships between the probability that a certain facet of the vacation decision has been decided at a particular point in time, as a function of lead time to the actual

  7. Facet-based analysis of vacation planning processes : a binary mixed logit panel model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Grigolon, Anna; Kemperman, Astrid; Timmermans, Harry

    2012-01-01

    This article documents the design and results of a study on vacation planning processes with a particular focus on aggregate relationships between the probability that a certain facet of the vacation decision has been decided at a particular point in time, as a function of lead time to the actual

  8. A Smooth Transition Logit Model of the Effects of Deregulation in the Electricity Market

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hurn, A.S.; Silvennoinen, Annastiina; Teräsvirta, Timo

    We consider a nonlinear vector model called the logistic vector smooth transition autoregressive model. The bivariate single-transition vector smooth transition regression model of Camacho (2004) is generalised to a multivariate and multitransition one. A modelling strategy consisting of specific......We consider a nonlinear vector model called the logistic vector smooth transition autoregressive model. The bivariate single-transition vector smooth transition regression model of Camacho (2004) is generalised to a multivariate and multitransition one. A modelling strategy consisting...... of specification, including testing linearity, estimation and evaluation of these models is constructed. Nonlinear least squares estimation of the parameters of the model is discussed. Evaluation by misspecification tests is carried out using tests derived in a companion paper. The use of the modelling strategy...

  9. Associating crash avoidance maneuvers with driver attributes and accident characteristics: a mixed logit model approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaplan, Sigal; Prato, Carlo Giacomo

    2012-01-01

    from the key role of proactive and state-aware road users within the concept of sustainable safety systems, as well as from the key role of effective corrective maneuvers in the success of automated in-vehicle warning and driver assistance systems. Methods: The analysis is conducted by means of a mixed...... about the risks of driving under fatigue and distraction being comparable to the risks of driving under the influence of alcohol and drugs. Moreover, the results suggest the need to educate drivers about hazard perception, designing a forgiving infrastructure within a sustainable safety systems......Objective: The current study focuses on the propensity of drivers to engage in crash avoidance maneuvers in relation to driver attributes, critical events, crash characteristics, vehicles involved, road characteristics, and environmental conditions. The importance of avoidance maneuvers derives...

  10. Análisis del rendimiento academico mediante un modelo logit

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    María del Carmen Ibarra

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Este trabajo analiza el rendimiento académico de los estudiantes de la Facultad de Ingeniería de la Universidad Nacional de Misiones; la población objetivo está conformada por los alumnos de las cohortes 1999 a 2003 (589 estudiantes. Se define al rendimiento académico como el promedio de materias aprobadas anualmente y mediante la técnica estadística multivariada de Regresión Logística, se determina la incidencia que tienen diferentes factores de índole personal, socioeconómica y académica. Los resultados obtenidos permiten concluir que las variables significativas del rendimiento académico son: el promedio de calificaciones del nivel medio, el tipo de Institución donde cursó estos estudios y el número de asignaturas aprobadas en el primer año de carrera, siendo este último factor el más relevante, destacando la importancia de esta primera etapa de la carrera en los posteriores resultados académicos del estudiante. The purpose of this work is to analyse the determining factors which influence students’ performance at university. The research has been carried out on five (5 engineering students’ cohorts (1999-2003 from Universidad Nacional de Misiones (UNaM and includes 589 students. The academic performance is defined as average subjects approved annually. By means of the Logistic Regression technique, we determine the impact of different personal, socioeconomic and academic factors. The main conclusion that can be drawn is that students’ performance, is related to the grade point average (GPA at high school, the kind of high school (public or private students had attended, and the number of passing subjects in their first year at university. The latter being the most important factor, emphasizing the importance of this first stage at the Universtity in the student’s academic performance.

  11. When Do Campaigns Matter? Informed Votes, the Heteroscedastic Logit and the Responsiveness of Electoral Outcomes

    OpenAIRE

    Gerber, Elisabeth R.; Lupia, Arthur

    1993-01-01

    Previous research suggests that voters in mass elections tend to be badly informed. If these voters do not know enough about the relationship between the policy consequences of electoral outcomes and their own interests, then electoral outcomes may not provide meaningful expressions of voter interests. Can campaign activity affect the relationship between voter interests and electoral outcomes? To answer this question, we use survey data from 35 comparable elections and a new empirical method...

  12. Using Random Parameter Logit In Open And Distance Learning (ODL) Institutions In Malaysia

    OpenAIRE

    Chooi Chea Chiam; SzeWei Loo

    2015-01-01

    Attention has been drawn to Open Distance Learning (ODL) as a mode for teaching and learning with the advancement in communication via the Internet. Education today has expanded the role of ICT in learning and knowledge generation, leveraging on Internet technology to transmit education across the country. Technology advancement and the introduction of ODL in educationhas created heated competition among these private higher education providers in Malaysia. ODL mode offers a flexible form of ...

  13. Using Random Parameter Logit In Open And Distance Learning (ODL Institutions In Malaysia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chooi Chea Chiam

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Attention has been drawn to Open Distance Learning (ODL as a mode for teaching and learning with the advancement in communication via the Internet. Education today has expanded the role of ICT in learning and knowledge generation, leveraging on Internet technology to transmit education across the country. Technology advancement and the introduction of ODL in educationhas created heated competition among these private higher education providers in Malaysia. ODL mode offers a flexible form of learning. Learners of ODL tend to be more challenging to fulfill their needs as they have other commitments in life, therefore, these learners will have certain criteria when choosing their learning education institution. The aim of this study is to investigate the vital attributes contributing in choosing an ODL higher education institution in Malaysia and to explore the consumers’ socioeconomic characteristicswith their willingness-to-pay fees. Although studies on the attributes that influence student choice of a university exist, these have failed to use the choice experiment method to examine the attributes influencing choice of ODL education provider. The sample population was 320 using face-to-face interview. The results would be able to provide ODL education providers in Malaysia with knowledge on making the right marketing strategy.

  14. The Effect of Family Characteristics on Higher Education Attendance in India: A Multivariate Logit Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pramanik, Shaswati

    2015-01-01

    Family characteristics in terms of parental education and income are an important influence on individual's participation in higher education. In India it could be found that categorically those who are out of the higher education system belong to marginalized groups due to their economic class, caste, gender, religion etc. despite massive…

  15. Very short-term probabilistic forecasting of wind power with generalized logit-Normal distributions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pinson, Pierre

    2012-01-01

    and probability masses at the bounds. Both auto-regressive and conditional parametric auto-regressive models are considered for the dynamics of their location and scale parameters. Estimation is performed in a recursive least squares framework with exponential forgetting. The superiority of this proposal over......Very-short-term probabilistic forecasts, which are essential for an optimal management of wind generation, ought to account for the non-linear and double-bounded nature of that stochastic process. They take here the form of discrete–continuous mixtures of generalized logit–normal distributions...

  16. Mother logit analysis of substitution effects in consumer shopping destination choice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Timmermans, H.J.P.; Borgers, A.W.J.; Waerden, van der P.J.H.J.

    1991-01-01

    The feasibility of new shopping centers is largely related to their relative location and spending power in the trade area. Commercial developers, retailers, and retail planners need information about the likely impact of new retail developments on consumer choice behavior. Several types of consumer

  17. An integrated logit model for contamination event detection in water distribution systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Housh, Mashor; Ostfeld, Avi

    2015-05-15

    The problem of contamination event detection in water distribution systems has become one of the most challenging research topics in water distribution systems analysis. Current attempts for event detection utilize a variety of approaches including statistical, heuristics, machine learning, and optimization methods. Several existing event detection systems share a common feature in which alarms are obtained separately for each of the water quality indicators. Unifying those single alarms from different indicators is usually performed by means of simple heuristics. A salient feature of the current developed approach is using a statistically oriented model for discrete choice prediction which is estimated using the maximum likelihood method for integrating the single alarms. The discrete choice model is jointly calibrated with other components of the event detection system framework in a training data set using genetic algorithms. The fusing process of each indicator probabilities, which is left out of focus in many existing event detection system models, is confirmed to be a crucial part of the system which could be modelled by exploiting a discrete choice model for improving its performance. The developed methodology is tested on real water quality data, showing improved performances in decreasing the number of false positive alarms and in its ability to detect events with higher probabilities, compared to previous studies. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Estimación bayesiana de efectos de red: el modelo Logit mixto

    OpenAIRE

    Chahuara Vargas, Paulo Roberto

    2017-01-01

    Los efectos o externalidades de red son factores que pueden condicionar las decisiones de contratación de los consumidores en favor de empresas ya establecidas y en contra de los nuevos competidores, pudiendo limitar la competencia efectiva y potencial de los mercados, en especial, en aquellas industrias donde el número de empresas es bajo y la entrada de nuevos competidores es poco frecuente. Por ello, es importante verificar su existencia y la magnitud de sus efectos sobre las decisiones de...

  19. Financial gradualism and banking crises in North Africa region: an investigation by a panel logit model

    OpenAIRE

    KHATTAB, Ahmed; IHADIYAN, Abid

    2017-01-01

    Abstract. In order to overcome the troubles of the crisis in the seventies, North African countries have adopted financial liberalization policies to enhance their economic growth. Moreover, these policies have affected the stability of their banking systems. The purpose of this study is to test the impact of financial liberalization on the probability of appearance of banking crises which covers a sample of four countries of the North Africa region during the period 1970-2003 by using a pane...

  20. The MDI Method as a Generalization of Logit, Probit and Hendry Analyses in Marketing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1980-04-01

    model involves nothing more than fitting a normal distribution function ( Hanushek and Jackson (1977)). For a given value of x, the probit model...preference shifts within the soft drink category. --For applications of probit models relevant for marketing, see Hausman and Wise (1978) and Hanushek and...Marketing Research" JMR XIV, Feb. (1977). Hanushek , E.A., and J.E. Jackson, Statistical Methods for Social Scientists. Academic Press, New York (1977

  1. Minimum Wages and Teenagers' Enrollment--Employment Outcomes: A Multinominal Logit Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ehrenberg, Ronald G.; Marcus, Alan J.

    1982-01-01

    This paper tests the hypothesis that the effect of minimum wage legislation on teenagers' education decisions is asymmetrical across family income classes, with the legislation inducing children from low-income families to reduce their levels of schooling and children from higher-income families to increase their educational attainment. (Author)

  2. Using Random Parameter Logit in Open and Distance Learning (ODL) Institutions in Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiam, Chooi Chea; Loo, SzeWei

    2015-01-01

    Attention has been drawn to Open Distance Learning (ODL) as a mode for teaching and learning with the advancement in communication via the Internet. Education today has expanded the role of ICT in learning and knowledge generation, leveraging on Internet technology to transmit education across the country. Due to the advancement of technology and…

  3. Energy consumption and economic growth—New evidence from meta analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Ping-Yu; Chen, Sheng-Tung; Chen, Chi-Chung

    2012-01-01

    The causal relationships between energy consumption and economic growth have given rise to much discussion but remain controversial. Alternative data sets based on different time spans, countries, energy policies and econometric approaches result in diverse outcomes. A meta analysis using a multinomial logit model with 174 samples governing the relationships between GDP and energy consumption is applied here to investigate the major factors that affect these controversial outcomes. The empirical results have demonstrated how the time spans, subject selections including GDP and energy consumption, econometric models, and tools for greenhouse gases emission reduction characteristics significantly affect these controversial outcomes. - Highlights: ► The controversial casual relationships between energy consumption and GDP are investigated. ► A meta analysis using a multinomial logit model is adopted. ► 74 studies governing the relationships between GDP and energy consumption was collected. ► The empirical results show how the probability of major factors affects such relationships.

  4. Regression Models For Multivariate Count Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yiwen; Zhou, Hua; Zhou, Jin; Sun, Wei

    2017-01-01

    Data with multivariate count responses frequently occur in modern applications. The commonly used multinomial-logit model is limiting due to its restrictive mean-variance structure. For instance, analyzing count data from the recent RNA-seq technology by the multinomial-logit model leads to serious errors in hypothesis testing. The ubiquity of over-dispersion and complicated correlation structures among multivariate counts calls for more flexible regression models. In this article, we study some generalized linear models that incorporate various correlation structures among the counts. Current literature lacks a treatment of these models, partly due to the fact that they do not belong to the natural exponential family. We study the estimation, testing, and variable selection for these models in a unifying framework. The regression models are compared on both synthetic and real RNA-seq data.

  5. Use of negative multinomial linear models to investigate environmental effects on community structure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    A frequent goal in ecology is to understand the relationships between biological communities and their environment. Anderson and McCardle (2001) provided a nonparametric method, known as Permanova, that is often used for this purpose. Permanova represents a significant advance,...

  6. Measuring political sentiment on Twitter: factor-optimal design for multinomial inverse regression

    OpenAIRE

    Taddy, Matt

    2012-01-01

    This article presents a short case study in text analysis: the scoring of Twitter posts for positive, negative, or neutral sentiment directed towards particular US politicians. The study requires selection of a sub-sample of representative posts for sentiment scoring, a common and costly aspect of sentiment mining. As a general contribution, our application is preceded by a proposed algorithm for maximizing sampling efficiency. In particular, we outline and illustrate greedy selection of docu...

  7. Analysis of Functional Data with Focus on Multinomial Regression and Multilevel Data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mousavi, Seyed Nourollah

    Functional data analysis (FDA) is a fast growing area in statistical research with increasingly diverse range of application from economics, medicine, agriculture, chemometrics, etc. Functional regression is an area of FDA which has received the most attention both in aspects of application...... and methodological development. Our main Functional data analysis (FDA) is a fast growing area in statistical research with increasingly diverse range of application from economics, medicine, agriculture, chemometrics, etc. Functional regression is an area of FDA which has received the most attention both in aspects...

  8. The Dirichet-Multinomial model for multivariate randomized response data and small samples

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Avetisyan, Marianna; Fox, Gerardus J.A.

    2012-01-01

    In survey sampling the randomized response (RR) technique can be used to obtain truthful answers to sensitive questions. Although the individual answers are masked due to the RR technique, individual (sensitive) response rates can be estimated when observing multivariate response data. The

  9. The Dirichlet-Multinomial Model for Multivariate Randomized Response Data and Small Samples

    Science.gov (United States)

    Avetisyan, Marianna; Fox, Jean-Paul

    2012-01-01

    In survey sampling the randomized response (RR) technique can be used to obtain truthful answers to sensitive questions. Although the individual answers are masked due to the RR technique, individual (sensitive) response rates can be estimated when observing multivariate response data. The beta-binomial model for binary RR data will be generalized…

  10. Using multinomial logistic regression analysis to understand anglers willingness to substitute other fishing locations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woo-Yong Hyun; Robert B. Ditton

    2007-01-01

    The concept of recreation substitutability has been a continuing research topic for outdoor recreation researchers. This study explores the relationships among variables regarding the willingness to substitute one location for another location. The objectives of the study are 1) to ascertain and predict the extent to which saltwater anglers were willing to substitute...

  11. PREMIM and EMIM: tools for estimation of maternal, imprinting and interaction effects using multinomial modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Howey Richard

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Here we present two new computer tools, PREMIM and EMIM, for the estimation of parental and child genetic effects, based on genotype data from a variety of different child-parent configurations. PREMIM allows the extraction of child-parent genotype data from standard-format pedigree data files, while EMIM uses the extracted genotype data to perform subsequent statistical analysis. The use of genotype data from the parents as well as from the child in question allows the estimation of complex genetic effects such as maternal genotype effects, maternal-foetal interactions and parent-of-origin (imprinting effects. These effects are estimated by EMIM, incorporating chosen assumptions such as Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium or exchangeability of parental matings as required. Results In application to simulated data, we show that the inference provided by EMIM is essentially equivalent to that provided by alternative (competing software packages such as MENDEL and LEM. However, PREMIM and EMIM (used in combination considerably outperform MENDEL and LEM in terms of speed and ease of execution. Conclusions Together, EMIM and PREMIM provide easy-to-use command-line tools for the analysis of pedigree data, giving unbiased estimates of parental and child genotype relative risks.

  12. A Multinomial Model of Fertility Choice and Offspring Sex-Ratios in India

    OpenAIRE

    Rubiana Chamarbagwala; Martin Ranger

    2007-01-01

    Fertility decline in developing countries may have unexpected demographic consequences. Although lower fertility improves nutrition, health, and human capital investments for surviving children, little is known about the relationship between fertility outcomes and female-male offspring sex-ratios. Particularly in countries with a cultural preference for sons, like India and China, fertility decline may deteriorate the already imbalanced sex-ratios. We use the fertility histories of over 90,00...

  13. TAFV Alternative Fuels and Vehicles Choice Model Documentation; TOPICAL

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Greene, D.L.

    2001-01-01

    A model for predicting choice of alternative fuel and among alternative vehicle technologies for light-duty motor vehicles is derived. The nested multinomial logit (NML) mathematical framework is used. Calibration of the model is based on information in the existing literature and deduction based on assuming a small number of key parameters, such as the value of time and discount rates. A spreadsheet model has been developed for calibration and preliminary testing of the model

  14. Effect of Advertising on the Brand Loyalty of Cosmetic Products among College Students

    OpenAIRE

    Ababio, Abraham Gyamfi; Yamoah, Emmanuel Erastus

    2016-01-01

    This study explored the relationship between advertising and brand loyalty of cosmetic products. The multinomial logit model was used to ascertain the effect of advertising on different loyalty profiles for cosmetic products among college students. Based on a survey of 200 Ghanaian students drawn randomly, findings indicated that advertising plays no significant role on college students’ loyalty for cosmetic products. It can be argued, however, that the most promiscuous buyer is more amenable...

  15. Livelihood strategies, environmental dependency and rural poverty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Walelign, Solomon Zena

    2016-01-01

    This article attempts to explore the nexus between rural households’ environmental dependency, poverty and livelihood strategies. Households’ income from each livelihood activities formed the basis for categorizing households according to livelihood strategies. The principal component analysis...... of livelihood choice were analyzed using multinomial logit model. The results indicate the existence of marked differences in environmental dependency, rural poverty and asset endowments across the livelihood groups. Household’s total saving, access to credit, production implements, business cost, exposure...

  16. A hipótese de Cressey (1953) e a investigação da ocorrência de fraudes corporativas: uma análise empírica em instituições bancárias brasileiras

    OpenAIRE

    Machado, Michele Rílany Rodrigues; Gartner, Ivan Ricardo

    2017-01-01

    ABSTRACT This article fills a technical-scientific gap that currently exists in the Brazilian literature on corporative fraud, by combining the theoretical framework of agency theory, of criminology, and of the economics of crime. In addition, it focuses on a sector that is usually excluded from analyses due to its specific characteristics and shows the application of multinomial logit panel data regression with random effects, which is rarely used in studies in the area of accounting. The ai...

  17. The Cressey hypothesis (1953) and an investigation into the occurrence of corporate fraud: an empirical analysis conducted in Brazilian banking institutions

    OpenAIRE

    Michele Rílany Rodrigues Machado; Ivan Ricardo Gartner

    2017-01-01

    ABSTRACT This article fills a technical-scientific gap that currently exists in the Brazilian literature on corporative fraud, by combining the theoretical framework of agency theory, of criminology, and of the economics of crime. In addition, it focuses on a sector that is usually excluded from analyses due to its specific characteristics and shows the application of multinomial logit panel data regression with random effects, which is rarely used in studies in the area of accounting. The ai...

  18. The impact of the residential built environment on work at home adoption frequency: An example from Northern California

    OpenAIRE

    Tang, Wei (Laura); Mokhtarian, Patricia L.; Handy, Susan L.

    2011-01-01

    Working at home is widely viewed as a useful travel-reduction strategy, and it is partly for that reason that considerable research related to telecommuting and home-based work has been conducted in the last two decades. This study examines the effect of residential neighborhood built environment (BE) factors on working at home. After systematically presenting and categorizing various relevant elements of the BE and reviewing related studies, we develop a multinomial logit (MNL) model of work...

  19. The Role of Neighborhood Characteristics in the Adoption and Frequency of Working at Home: Empirical Evidence from Northern California

    OpenAIRE

    Tang, Wei; Mokhtarian, Patricia; Handy, Susan

    2008-01-01

    Working at home is widely viewed as a useful travel-reduction strategy, and partly for that reason, considerable research related to telecommuting and home-based work has been conducted in the last two decades. The contribution of this study is to examine the effect of residential neighborhood built environment (BE) factors on working at home. Using data from a survey of eight neighborhoods in Northern California, we develop a multinomial logit (MNL) model of work-at-home (WAH) frequency. Pot...

  20. Climate Change Adaptation via U.S. Land Use Transitions: A Spatial Econometric Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Cho, Sung Ju; McCarl, Bruce A.; Wu, Ximing

    2015-01-01

    Climate change, coupled with biofuels development and other factors may well be changing US land usage patterns. We use a spatial econometric approach to estimate the drivers of US land use transitions in recent years. We consider transitions between six major land uses: agricultural land, forest, grassland, water, urban, and other uses. To examine drivers, we use a two-step linearized, spatial, multinomial logit model and estimate land use transition probabilities. Our results indicate that ...

  1. Linking apple farmers to markets: Determinants and impacts of marketing contracts in China

    OpenAIRE

    Ma, Wanglin; Abdulai, Awudu

    2015-01-01

    This study investigates the determinants of marketing contract choices and the related impact on farm net returns of apple farmers in China. We employ a two-stage selection correction approach (BFG) for the multinomial logit model. On the basis of the BFG estimation, we also use an endogenous switching regression model and a propensity score matching technique to estimate the causal effects of marketing contract choices on net returns. The empirical results reveal that written contracts incre...

  2. Ordering the Preference Hierarchies for Internal Finance, Bank Loans, Bond and Share Issues

    OpenAIRE

    Leo de Haan; Jeroen Hinloopen

    2002-01-01

    We estimate the incremental financing decision for a sample of some 150Dutch companies for the years 1984 through 1997, thereby distinguishinginternal finance and three types of external finance: bank borrowing, bondissues and share issues. First, we estimate a multinomial logit model whichconfirms several predictions of both the static trade-off theory and thepecking-order theory as to the determinants of financing choices. Next, weuse ordered probit models to determine which financing hiera...

  3. Benefits of improved water quality: a discrete choice analysis of freshwater recreational demands

    OpenAIRE

    R S Tay; P S McCarthy

    1994-01-01

    Discrete choice methodologies are increasingly being used to estimate multiple-sites recreational demands and evaluate the welfare effects of alternative environmental policies aimed at water quality improvements. In this study the authors use 1985 data on Indiana anglers to estimate a multinomial logit model of destination choice and compute the benefits of alternative water quality improvements. In general, the results indicate that anglers are reasonably sensitive to changes in water quali...

  4. "Choice of Air Cargo Transshipment Airport: An Application to Air Cargo Traffic to/from Northeast Asia"

    OpenAIRE

    Hiroshi Ohashi; Tae-Seung Kim; Tae Hoon Oum; Chunyan Yu

    2004-01-01

    Based on a unique data set of 760 air cargo transshipment routings to/from the Northeast Asian region in 2000, this paper applies an aggregate form of multinomial logit model to identify the critical factors influencing air cargo transshipment route choice decisions. The analysis focuses on the trade-off between monetary cost and time cost while considering other variables relevant for choice of transshipment airport. The estimation method considers the presence of unobserved attributes, and ...

  5. The Influence of Higher Moments of Earnings Distributions on Career Decisions.

    OpenAIRE

    Flyer, Fredrick A

    1997-01-01

    A model where choice of occupation is sequential is applied to college graduates from the National Longitudinal Study of High School Class of 1972 to investigate how higher moments of occupational earnings distributions influence initial field of work. Individual specific life-cycle earnings projections that incorporate option values of occupational mobility are generated, and the relationship between these pay measures and choice of initial occupation is explored within a multinomial logit f...

  6. Should we pay, and to whom, for biodiversity enhancement in private forests? An empirical study of attitudes towards payments for forest ecosystem services in Poland

    OpenAIRE

    Anna Bartczak; Katarzyna Metelska-Szaniawska

    2015-01-01

    This paper investigates the possibility of forest policy changes in Poland. The main objective is to investigate whether, and to whom, the society would be willing to pay for providing biodiversity enhancement in private forests. The empirical evidence is derived from a stated preference survey conducted on the national level and analyzed using a multinomial logit model (MNL). Our findings show a rather strong potential for the implementation of payments for ecosystem services (PES) in privat...

  7. Working Paper 175 - Youth Employment in Africa: New Evidence and Policies from Swaziland

    OpenAIRE

    Zuzana Brixiova; Thierry Kangoye

    2013-01-01

    Drawing on the 2007 and 2010 Swaziland Labor Force Surveys, this paper provides first systematic evidence on recent youth employment challenges in Swaziland, a small, land-locked, middle-income country with one of the highest youth unemployment rates in Africa. The paper first documents the various labor market disadvantages faced by the Swazi youth, such as high unemployment and discouragement, and how they changed from 2007 to 2010. A multinomial logit regression analysis is carried out to ...

  8. Youth Employment in Africa: New Evidence and Policies from Swaziland

    OpenAIRE

    Brixiova, Zuzana; Kangoye, Thierry

    2013-01-01

    Drawing on the 2007 and 2010 Swaziland Labor Force Surveys, this paper provides first systematic evidence on recent youth employment challenges in Swaziland, a small, land-locked, middle-income country with one of the highest youth unemployment rates in Africa. The paper first documents the various labor market disadvantages faced by the Swazi youth, such as high unemployment and discouragement, and how they changed from 2007 to 2010. A multinomial logit regression analysis is then carried ou...

  9. How do we value our income from which we save?

    OpenAIRE

    Barbara Liberda; Marek Pęczkowski; Ewa Gucwa-Leśny

    2011-01-01

    In this paper we analyze the relationship between the perception of income as satisfying household needs and saving rate of this household. Using the multinomial logit regression function we measure the probability of a household to fall into one of the groups categorized by the subjective perception of income in relation to the current household disposable income. The variable specified for the valuation of income is income perception, defined as a class of observed disposable income located...

  10. Intrahousehold Health Care Financing Strategy and the Gender Gap: Empirical Evidence from India

    OpenAIRE

    Abay Asfaw; Stephan Klasen; Francesca Lamanna

    2008-01-01

    The 'missing women' dilemma in India has sparked interest in investigating gender discrimination in the provision of health care in the country. No studies, however, have directly examined this discrimination in relation to household behavior in health care financing. We hypothesize that households who face tight budget constraints are more likely to spend their meager resources on hospitalization of boys rather than girls. We use the 60th Indian National Sample Survey and a multinomial logit...

  11. Estimating the Open Market Desk's Daily Reaction Function.

    OpenAIRE

    Feinman, Joshua N

    1993-01-01

    This paper presents the results of an empirical investigation into the proximate determinants of the Federal Reserve's daily open market operations. Using information available each morning at the Fed conference call, the author models the Open Market Desk's choice of both the quantity and the type of operation, using a friction model for the former and a multinomial logit framework for the latter. Different types of operations are shown to send different signals to the market about the under...

  12. Disability and multi-state labour force choices with state dependence

    OpenAIRE

    Oguzoglu, Umut

    2010-01-01

    I use a dynamic mixed multinomial logit model with unobserved heterogeneity to study the impact of work limiting disabilities on disaggregated labour choices. The first seven waves of the Household Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia survey are used to investigate this relationship. Findings point out to strong state dependence in employment choices. Further, the impact of disability on employment outcomes is highly significant. Model simulations suggest that high cross and own state depe...

  13. Local and/or organic: A study on consumer preferences for organic food and food from different origins

    OpenAIRE

    Feldmann , Corinna; Hamm, Ulrich

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to get a deeper insight into consumer preferences for different food products varying in their places of origin (i.e. local, Germany, neighbouring country, non-EU country) and production practices (i.e. organic vs. non-organic). Therefore, consumer surveys combined with choice experiments were conducted with 641 consumers in eight supermarkets in different parts of Germany. Multinomial and mixed logit models were estimated to draw conclusions on the preference str...

  14. Employees’ Preferences for more or fewer Working Hours. The Effects of Usual, Contractual and Standard Working Time, Family Phase and Household Characteristics, and Job Satisfaction

    OpenAIRE

    Tijdens, K.

    2002-01-01

    This study seeks explanations for working time preferences, using cross-sectional multinomial logits for the 2001/2002 Wage Indicator dataset (N=21,727). As expected, the preferences are predominately influenced by working hours’ characteristics, showing that employees with long hours prefer to work shorter hours and that short-hours workers prefer longer hours. New is the finding that salaried employees indeed want to reduce hours whereas hourly paid employees prefer to work longer hours. In...

  15. WP RR 15 - Employees' preferences for more or fewer working hours: The effects of usual, contractual and standard working time, family phase and household characteristics and job satisfaction

    OpenAIRE

    Kea Tijdens

    2002-01-01

    This study seeks explanations for working time preferences, using cross-sectional multinomial logits for the 2001/2002 Wage Indicator dataset (N=21,727). As expected, the preferences are predominately influenced by working hours’ characteristics, showing that employees with long hours prefer to work shorter hours and that short-hours workers prefer longer hours. New is the finding that salaried employees indeed want to reduce hours whereas hourly paid employees prefer to work longer hours. In...

  16. Long Work Hours: Volunteers and Conscripts

    OpenAIRE

    Robert Drago; Mark Wooden; David Black

    2006-01-01

    Panel data from Australia are used to study the prevalence of work hours mismatch among long hours workers and, more importantly, how that mismatch persists and changes over time, and what factors are associated with these changes. Particular attention is paid to the roles played by household debt, ideal worker characteristics and gender. Both static and dynamic multinomial logit models are estimated, with the dependent variable distinguishing long hours workers from other workers, and within...

  17. Modeling the Choice of Telecommuting Frequency in California: An Exploratory Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Mannering, Jill S.; Mokhtarian, Patricia L.

    1995-01-01

    This study explores the individual's choice of telecommuting frequency as a function of demographic, travel, work and attitudinal factors. To do this, multinomial logit models are estimated using data collected in a recent survey of employees from three public agencies in California. Separate models are estimated, one for data collected from the Franchise Tax Board in Sacramento, one for data from the Public Utilities Commission in San Francisco, and one for data collected from employees of t...

  18. Effective Exchange Rate Classifications and Growth

    OpenAIRE

    Justin M. Dubas; Byung-Joo Lee; Nelson C. Mark

    2005-01-01

    We propose an econometric procedure for obtaining de facto exchange rate regime classifications which we apply to study the relationship between exchange rate regimes and economic growth. Our classification method models the de jure regimes as outcomes of a multinomial logit choice problem conditional on the volatility of a country's effective exchange rate, a bilateral exchange rate and international reserves. An `effective' de facto exchange rate regime classification is then obtained by as...

  19. Location-Price Competition in Airline Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Gao

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper addresses location-then-price competition in airline market as a two-stage game of n players on the graph. Passenger’s demand distribution is described by multinomial logit model. Equilibrium in price game is computed through best response dynamics. We solve location game using backward induction, knowing that airlines will choose prices from equilibrium for the second-stage game. Some numerical results for airline market under consideration are presented.

  20. Patient choice modelling: how do patients choose their hospitals?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Honora; Currie, Christine; Chaiwuttisak, Pornpimol; Kyprianou, Andreas

    2018-06-01

    As an aid to predicting future hospital admissions, we compare use of the Multinomial Logit and the Utility Maximising Nested Logit models to describe how patients choose their hospitals. The models are fitted to real data from Derbyshire, United Kingdom, which lists the postcodes of more than 200,000 admissions to six different local hospitals. Both elective and emergency admissions are analysed for this mixed urban/rural area. For characteristics that may affect a patient's choice of hospital, we consider the distance of the patient from the hospital, the number of beds at the hospital and the number of car parking spaces available at the hospital, as well as several statistics publicly available on National Health Service (NHS) websites: an average waiting time, the patient survey score for ward cleanliness, the patient safety score and the inpatient survey score for overall care. The Multinomial Logit model is successfully fitted to the data. Results obtained with the Utility Maximising Nested Logit model show that nesting according to city or town may be invalid for these data; in other words, the choice of hospital does not appear to be preceded by choice of city. In all of the analysis carried out, distance appears to be one of the main influences on a patient's choice of hospital rather than statistics available on the Internet.

  1. Think twice before you book? Modelling the choice of public vs private dentist in a choice experiment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiiskinen, Urpo; Suominen-Taipale, Anna Liisa; Cairns, John

    2010-06-01

    This study concerns the choice of primary dental service provider by consumers. If the health service delivery system allows individuals to choose between public-care providers or if complementary private services are available, it is typically assumed that utilisation is a three-stage decision process. The patient first makes a decision to seek care, and then chooses the service provider. The final stage, involving decisions over the amount and form of treatment, is not considered here. The paper reports a discrete choice experiment (DCE) designed to evaluate attributes affecting individuals' choice of dental-care provider. The feasibility of the DCE approach in modelling consumers' choice in the context of non-acute need for dental care is assessed. The aim is to test whether a separate two-stage logit, a multinomial logit, or a nested logit best fits the choice process of consumers. A nested logit model of indirect utility functions is estimated and inclusive value (IV) constraints are tested for modelling implications. The results show that non-trading behaviour has an impact on the choice of appropriate modelling technique, but is to some extent dependent on the choice of scenarios offered. It is concluded that for traders multinomial logit is appropriate, whereas for non-traders and on average the nested logit is the method supported by the analyses. The consistent finding in all subgroup analyses is that the traditional two-stage decision process is found to be implausible in the context of consumer's choice of dental-care provider.

  2. Modeling pedestrian shopping behavior using principles of bounded rationality: model comparison and validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Wei; Timmermans, Harry

    2011-06-01

    Models of geographical choice behavior have been dominantly based on rational choice models, which assume that decision makers are utility-maximizers. Rational choice models may be less appropriate as behavioral models when modeling decisions in complex environments in which decision makers may simplify the decision problem using heuristics. Pedestrian behavior in shopping streets is an example. We therefore propose a modeling framework for pedestrian shopping behavior incorporating principles of bounded rationality. We extend three classical heuristic rules (conjunctive, disjunctive and lexicographic rule) by introducing threshold heterogeneity. The proposed models are implemented using data on pedestrian behavior in Wang Fujing Street, the city center of Beijing, China. The models are estimated and compared with multinomial logit models and mixed logit models. Results show that the heuristic models are the best for all the decisions that are modeled. Validation tests are carried out through multi-agent simulation by comparing simulated spatio-temporal agent behavior with the observed pedestrian behavior. The predictions of heuristic models are slightly better than those of the multinomial logit models.

  3. Airport terminal choice model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudia Helena Muñoz-Hoyos

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available La mayoría de los estudios del modo aéreo han tratado individua lmente los aspectos de tarifas, demoras y demás variables inher entes a este medio de transporte, así como la elección del modo aéreo f rente a otros modos, pero poco se ha hecho por modelar cómo un viajero elige un aeropuerto entre dos opciones disponibles en una gran ciudad. En la actualidad un pasajero que parte de la ciudad de Medellín - Colombia a algunos destinos nacionales, tiene la opción de v iajar por alguno de los dos aeropuertos, el José María Córdova (JMC o el Enriqu e Olaya Herrera (EOH; esta investigación presenta los resultad os de una encuesta de preferencias declaradas en un experimento de elecci ón discreta, y partiendo de esto se obtiene un modelo por desti no; para cada uno de estos se hallaron modelos logit multinomial y logit mixt o; en cada trayecto evaluado se eligió el logit multinomial com o el mejor.

  4. Influence of social networks on latent choice of electric cars : a mixed logit specification using experimental design data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rasouli, S.; Timmermans, H.J.P.

    2016-01-01

    Electric cars can potentially make a substantial contribution to the reduction of pollution and noise. The size of this contribution depends on the acceptance of this new technology in the market. This paper reports on the design and results of an elaborate stated choice experiment to investigate

  5. Logit Model of Computer-Based Data-Driven Creative Idea Generation in the Industry and Service Sectors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. N. Hojjati

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Organizational creativity and employee idea generation have become important and essential elements of an organization’s success, as creativity results to increased performance. The need of increased creativity is evident in industrial and service companies. The main idea behind this paper is to analyze and demonstrate if accessing various types of data in certain ways and/or situations affects creative idea generation by the people involved in different industrial/service sectors, considering that now most of the employees use digital data. The current paper discusses how seven different factors are related to digital data affect creativity.

  6. What drives active transportation choices among the aging population? Comparing a Bayesian belief network and mixed logit modeling approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kemperman, A.D.A.M.; Timmermans, H.J.P.

    2013-01-01

    As people age, they typically face declining levels of physical ability and mobility. However, walking and bicycling can remain relatively easy ways to be physically active for older adults provided that the built environment facilitates these activities. The aim of this study is to investigate

  7. Stochastic user equilibrium with equilibrated choice sets: Part II - Solving the restricted SUE for the logit family

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Thomas Kjær; Watling, David Paul; Prato, Carlo Giacomo

    2015-01-01

    We propose a new class of path-based solution algorithms to solve the Restricted Stochastic User Equilibrium (RSUE), as introduced in Watling et al. (2015). The class allows a flexible specification of how the choice sets are systematically grown by considering congestion effects and how the flow...... real-life cases, in which we explore convergence patterns and choice set composition and size, for alternative specifications of the RSUE model and solution algorithm....

  8. Interrelationships Between Receiver/Relative Operating Characteristics Display, Binomial, Logit, and Bayes' Rule Probability of Detection Methodologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Generazio, Edward R.

    2014-01-01

    Unknown risks are introduced into failure critical systems when probability of detection (POD) capabilities are accepted without a complete understanding of the statistical method applied and the interpretation of the statistical results. The presence of this risk in the nondestructive evaluation (NDE) community is revealed in common statements about POD. These statements are often interpreted in a variety of ways and therefore, the very existence of the statements identifies the need for a more comprehensive understanding of POD methodologies. Statistical methodologies have data requirements to be met, procedures to be followed, and requirements for validation or demonstration of adequacy of the POD estimates. Risks are further enhanced due to the wide range of statistical methodologies used for determining the POD capability. Receiver/Relative Operating Characteristics (ROC) Display, simple binomial, logistic regression, and Bayes' rule POD methodologies are widely used in determining POD capability. This work focuses on Hit-Miss data to reveal the framework of the interrelationships between Receiver/Relative Operating Characteristics Display, simple binomial, logistic regression, and Bayes' Rule methodologies as they are applied to POD. Knowledge of these interrelationships leads to an intuitive and global understanding of the statistical data, procedural and validation requirements for establishing credible POD estimates.

  9. INTERNAL AND EXTERNAL DETERMINANTS OF INNOVATION CAPABILITY IN PORTUGUESE SERVICES FIRMS: A LOGIT APPROACH DETERMINANTES INTERNOS Y EXTERNOS DE LA CAPACIDAD DE INNOVAR DE LAS EMPRESAS DE SERVICIOS PORTUGUESAS: MODELO LOGIT DETERMINANTES INTERNOS E EXTERNOS DA CAPACIDADE INOVADORA DAS EMPRESAS DE SERVIÇOS PORTUGUESAS: MODELO LOGIT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria José Silva

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This research examined the degree of importance of factors internal and external determinants of innovative company, under the Portuguese service companies. Based on the literature has built up a conceptual model and hypotheses were formulated several research have been tested empirically, using the secondary data provided by the Center for Science  and Higher Education (OCES, belonging to the 4th Community Innovation Survey (CIS 4, supervised by EUROSTAT. The method was to use logistic regression. According to the results, as greater financial investment in internal  research activities and development in acquisition of external knowledge and marketing activities in the greater propensity of firms to innovate at the level of services. The results allow a joint analysis of the factors that promote and restrict the innovative capacity of service companies, which identify the main determinants and improve the knowledge on innovation in services. The contribution of the results refers to the identification of which factors are really important in stimulating innovation in service firms.Esta investigación analizó el grado de importancia de los factores internos y externos determinantes de la capacidad innovadora empresarial en el ámbito de las empresas de servicios portuguesas. Con base en la literatura se construyó un  modelo conceptual y se formularon varias hipótesis de investigación que fueron testadas empíricamente, utilizándose los datos secundarios facultados por el “Observatorio de Ciencia y de la Enseñanza Superior” (OCES, pertenecientes a la 4ª Indagación Comunitaria a la Innovación (CIS 4, bajo la supervisión de EUROSTAT. El método utilizado fue la regresión logística. De acuerdo con los resultados obtenidos, cuanto mayores sean las inversiones financieras en actividades internas de investigación y desarrollo, en adquisición de conocimientos externos y en actividades de marketing, mayor es la propensión de las empresas para innovar en los servicios. Los resultados permiten un análisis conjunto de los factores que impulsan y restringen la capacidad innovadora de las empresas de servicios, permitiendo identificar los principales determinantes  de esa capacidad e incrementar el conocimiento sobre la innovación en los servicios. La contribución de los resultados es la identificación de los factores que son realmente relevantes en el estímulo a la  innovación en las mencionadas empresas.Esta investigação analisou o grau de importância dos factores internos e externos determinantes da capacidade inovadora empresarial no âmbito das empresas de serviços portuguesas. Com base na literatura, construiu-se um modelo conceptual e formularam-se várias hipóteses de investigação que foram testadas empiricamente, utilizando-se os dados secundários facultados pelo “Observatório da Ciência e do Ensino Superior” (OCES, pertencentes ao 4º Inquérito Comunitário à Inovação (CIS 4, sob a supervisão do EUROSTAT. O método utilizado foi a regressão logística. De acordo com os resultados obtidos, quanto maiores forem os investimentos financeiros em actividades internas de investigação e desenvolvimento, em aquisição de conhecimentos externos e em actividades de marketing, maior será a propensão das empresas para inovar nos serviços. Os resultados permitem uma  análise conjunta dos factores que impulsionam e restringem a capacidade inovadora das empresas de serviços, possibilitando identificar seus principais determinantes e incrementar o conhecimento sobre a inovação dos serviços. A contribuição dos resultados é a identificação dos fatores que são realmente relevantes no estímulo à inovação nas empresas de serviços.

  10. Contribution of chronic conditions to functional limitations using a multinomial outcome: Results for the older population in Belgium and Brazil

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Yokota, R.T.C. (Renata T.C.); W.J. Nusselder (Wilma); J-M. Robine (Jean-Marie); J. Tafforeau (Jean); P. Deboosere (Patrick); Moura, L. (Lenildo); Andrade, S.S.C.A. (Silvânia S.C.A.); Castro, S.S. (Shamyr S.); H. van Oyen (Herman)

    2017-01-01

    textabstractBackground: The global phenomenon of population ageing is creating new challenges in both high and middle income countries, as functional limitations are expected to increase with age. The attribution method has been proposed to identify which conditions contribute most to disability

  11. Survival analysis with covariates in combination with multinomial analysis to parametrize time to event for multi-state models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Feenstra, T.L.; Postmus, D.; Quik, E.H.; Langendijk, H.; Krabbe, P.F.M.

    Objectives: Recent ISPOR Good practice guidelines as well as literature encourage to use a single distribution rather than the latent failure approach to model time to event for patient level simulation models with multiple competing outcomes. Aim was to apply the preferred method of a single

  12. Predicting Teacher Value-Added Results in Non-Tested Subjects Based on Confounding Variables: A Multinomial Logistic Regression

    Science.gov (United States)

    Street, Nathan Lee

    2017-01-01

    Teacher value-added measures (VAM) are designed to provide information regarding teachers' causal impact on the academic growth of students while controlling for exogenous variables. While some researchers contend VAMs successfully and authentically measure teacher causality on learning, others suggest VAMs cannot adequately control for exogenous…

  13. Application of binomial and multinomial probability statistics to the sampling design process of a global grain tracing and recall system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Small, coded, pill-sized tracers embedded in grain are proposed as a method for grain traceability. A sampling process for a grain traceability system was designed and investigated by applying probability statistics using a science-based sampling approach to collect an adequate number of tracers fo...

  14. Survival analysis with covariates in combination with multinomial analysis to parametrize time to event for multi-state models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Feenstra, T.L.; Postmus, D.; Quik, E.H.; Langendijk, H.; Krabbe, P.F.M.

    2013-01-01

    Objectives: Recent ISPOR Good practice guidelines as well as literature encourage to use a single distribution rather than the latent failure approach to model time to event for patient level simulation models with multiple competing outcomes. Aim was to apply the preferred method of a single

  15. Heterogeneity in the WTP for recreational access

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Campbell, Danny; Vedel, Suzanne Elizabeth; Thorsen, Bo Jellesmark

    2014-01-01

    In this study we have addressed appropriate modelling of heterogeneity in willingness to pay (WTP) for environmental goods, and have demonstrated its importance using a case of forest access in Denmark. We compared WTP distributions for four models: (1) a multinomial logit model, (2) a mixed logit...... model assuming a univariate Normal distribution, (3) or assuming a multivariate Normal distribution allowing for correlation across attributes, and (4) a mixture of two truncated Normal distributions, allowing for correlation among attributes. In the first two models mean WTP for enhanced access...... was negative. However, models accounting for preference heterogeneity found a positive mean WTP, but a large sub-group with negative WTP. Accounting for preference heterogeneity can alter overall conclusions, which highlights the importance of this for policy recommendations....

  16. Impacts of geographical locations and sociocultural traits on the Vietnamese entrepreneurship.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vuong, Quan Hoang

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents new results obtained from investigating the data from a 2015 Vietnamese entrepreneurs' survey, containing 3071 observations. Evidence from the estimations using multinomial logits was found to support relationships between several sociocultural factors and entrepreneurship-related performance or traits. Specifically, those relationships include: (a) Active participation in entrepreneurs' social networks and reported value of creativity; (b) CSR-willingness and reported entrepreneurs' perseverance; (c) Transforming of sociocultural values and entrepreneurs' decisiveness; and, (d) Lessons learned from others' failures and perceived chance of success. Using geographical locations as the control variate, evaluations of the baseline-category logits models indicate their varying effects on the outcomes when combined with the sociocultural factors that are found to be statistically significant. Empirical probabilities that give further detail about behavioral patterns are provided; and toward the end, the paper offers some conclusions with some striking insights and useful explanations on the Vietnamese entrepreneurship processes.

  17. Propensity for Voluntary Travel Behavior Changes: An Experimental Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Meloni, Italo; Sanjust, Benedetta; Sottile, Eleonora

    2013-01-01

    In this paper we analyze individual propensity to voluntary travel behavior change combining concepts from theory of change with the methodologies deriving from behavioral models. In particular, following the theory of voluntary changes, we set up a two-week panel survey including soft measure...... implementation, which consisted of providing car users with a personalized travel plan after the first week of observation (before) and using the second week to monitoring the post-behavior (after). These data have then been used to estimate a Mixed Logit for the choice to use a personal vehicle or a light metro......; and a Multinomial Logit for the decision to change behavior. Results from both models show the relevance of providing information about available alternatives to individuals while promoting voluntary travel behavioral change....

  18. A Study of Commuters’ Decision-Making When Delaying Departure for Work-Home Trips

    Science.gov (United States)

    Que, Fangjie; Wang, Wei

    2017-12-01

    Studies on the travel behaviors and patterns of residents are important to the arrangement of urban layouts and urban traffic planning. However, research on the characteristics of the decision-making behavior regarding departure time is not fully expanded yet. In this paper, the research focuses on commuters’ decision-making behavior regarding departure delay. According to the 2013 travel survey data of Suzhou City, a nested logit (NL) model was built to represent the probabilities of individual choices. Parameter calibration was conducted, so that the significant factors influencing the departure delay were obtained. Ultimately, the results of the NL model indicated that it performed better and with higher precision, compared to the traditional multinomial logit (MNL) model.

  19. Attitudinal travel demand model for non-work trips of homogeneously constrained segments of a population

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Recker, W.W.; Stevens, R.F.

    1977-06-01

    Market-segmentation techniques are used to capture effects of opportunity and availability constraints on urban residents' choice of mode for trips for major grocery shopping and for visiting friends and acquaintances. Attitudinal multinomial logit choice models are estimated for each market segment. Explanatory variables are individual's beliefs about attributes of four modal alternatives: bus, car, taxi and walking. Factor analysis is employed to identify latent dimensions of perception of the modal alternatives and to eliminate problems of multicollinearity in model estimation.

  20. Meta-analysis data for 104 Energy-Economy Nexus papers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vladimír Hajko

    2017-06-01

    Data cover papers indexed by Scopus, published in economic journals, written in English, after year 2000. In addition, papers were manually filtered to only those that deal with Energy-Economy Nexus investigation and have at least 10 citations at (at the time of query – November 2015. This data are to be used to conduct meta-analysis – associated dataset was used in Hajko [1]. Early version of the dataset was used for multinomial logit estimation in Master thesis by Kociánová [2].

  1. Discrete Choice and Rational Inattention

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fosgerau, Mogens; Melo, Emerson; de Palma, André

    2017-01-01

    This paper establishes a general equivalence between discrete choice and rational inattention models. Matejka and McKay (2015, AER) showed that when information costs are modelled using the Shannon entropy, the result- ing choice probabilities in the rational inattention model take the multinomial...... logit form. We show that when information costs are modelled using a class of generalized entropies, then the choice probabilities in any rational inattention model are observationally equivalent to some additive random utility discrete choice model and vice versa. This equivalence arises from convex...

  2. Electoral system, pesonal votes, and party choice

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thomsen, Søren Risbjerg

    Using local elections in Denmark as an example this paper shows that individual party choice is influenced both by individual level, municipality level, and national level characteristics. Some hypotheses about the effects of the electoral system on personal votes derived from a theory by Carey...... & Shugart (1995) are first tested using a fixed-effects model. The effect of the personal reputation of the candidates, measured by personal votes, on party choice is then tested using a multilevel multinomial logit model suggested by Rabe-Hesketh and Skrondal (2008). The paper shows that both the electoral...

  3. Transitions between states of labor-force participation among older Israelis

    OpenAIRE

    Achdut, Leah; Tur-Sinai, Aviad; Troitsky, Rita

    2014-01-01

    The study examines the labor-force behavior of Israelis at older ages, focusing on the determinants of the transitions between states of labor-force participation between 2005 and 2010. The study uses panel data from the first two waves of the SHARE-Israel longitudinal survey. A multinomial logit model is used to examine the impact of sociodemographic characteristics, health state, and economic resources on labor-force transitions of people aged 50–67. The results emphasize the role of age an...

  4. Don’t Work, Work at Home, or Commute? Discrete Choice Models of the Decision for San Francisco Bay Area Residents

    OpenAIRE

    Ory, D T; Mokhtarian, Patricia L

    2005-01-01

    Using socio-demographic, personality, and attitudinal data from 1,680 residents of the San Francisco Bay Area, we develop and estimate binary, multinomial, and nested logit models of the choice to work or not, whether or not to work at home, and whether to commute all of the time or some of the time (either by only working part time, or by working a compressed work week, or by telecommuting some of the time). To our knowledge, these are the first models of all these choices simultaneously. Th...

  5. Modeling the Joint Labor-Commute Engagement Decisions of San Francisco Bay Area Residents

    OpenAIRE

    Ory, David T.; Mokhtarian, Patricia L.

    2005-01-01

    Using socio-demographic, personality, and attitudinal data from 1,680 residents of the San Francisco Bay Area, we develop and estimate binary, multinomial, and nested logit models of the choice to work or not, whether or not to work at home, and whether to commute all of the time or some of the time (either by only working part time, or by working a compressed work week, or by telecommuting some of the time). To our knowledge, these are the first models of all these choices simultaneously. Th...

  6. Choice Model and Influencing Factor Analysis of Travel Mode for Migrant Workers: Case Study in Xi’an, China

    OpenAIRE

    Hong Chen; Zuo-xian Gan; Yu-ting He

    2015-01-01

    Based on the basic theory and methods of disaggregate choice model, the influencing factors in travel mode choice for migrant workers are analyzed, according to 1366 data samples of Xi’an migrant workers. Walking, bus, subway, and taxi are taken as the alternative parts of travel modes for migrant workers, and a multinomial logit (MNL) model of travel mode for migrant workers is set up. The validity of the model is verified by the hit rate, and the hit rates of four travel modes are all great...

  7. La influencia de la densidad competitiva en el resultado de los equipos en el fútbol de alto nivel. (The influence of a congested football calendar on the results obtained by teams in professional soccer.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joaquín Lago Ballesteros

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Resumen Existe una considerable variación en el número de partidos disputados por los equipos de fútbol durante una temporada. Los mejores equipos juegan varios partidos a la semana tanto en las competiciones domesticas como en la Liga de Campeones. Se ha especulado que un período cargado de partidos puede limitar el rendimiento de los conjuntos. En este trabajo se estudia el efecto que tiene para un equipo disputar un partido de la Liga de Campeones sobre el resultado alcanzado en el encuentro de la Liga Española en el fin de semana anterior. La muestra consiste en 374 partidos de la Liga Española jugados por los equipos que se encontraban simultáneamente disputando la Liga de Campeones entre las temporadas 2003-2004 y 2006- 2007. Los resultados alcanzados mediante un modelo logit multinomial permiten demostrar que disputar un partido de la Liga de Campeones no reduce la probabilidad de ganar en el partido de la Liga Española. Además se ha verificado que la probabilidad de ganar en el partido del fin de semana de la Liga Española es mayor cuando el partido de la Liga de Campeones a disputar pertenece a la fase de liguilla respecto a si se corresponde con el formato de eliminación directa.Palabras clave: fútbol; liga española; liga de campeones; logit multinomial; densidad competitive. Abstract There is a considerable variation in the number of matches played per season by clubs in the Spanish Soccer. The successful top clubs play several matches a week in domestic leagues as well as in the UEFA Champions League. It has been speculated that a period full of matches can lead to player fatigue which may result in underperformance. Using data from 374 matches of the Spanish Soccer League played from the 2003-04 to the 2006-07 seasons and according to the estimation based on logit multinomial this study shows that Spanish Champions League teams did not perform below their normal standard at the weekend when they played a Champions

  8. National and international graduate migration flows.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mosca, Irene; Wright, Robert E

    2010-01-01

    This article examines the nature of national and international graduate migration flows in the UK. Migration equations are estimated with microdata from a matched dataset of Students and Destinations of Leavers from Higher Education, information collected by the Higher Education Statistical Agency. The probability of migrating is related to a set of observable characteristics using multinomial logit regression. The analysis suggests that migration is a selective process with graduates with certain characteristics having considerably higher probabilities of migrating, both to other regions of the UK and abroad.

  9. Estrutura do mercado de trabalho metropolitano na região sul do Brasil, em 1995 e em 2005

    OpenAIRE

    Sampaio,Armando Vaz

    2012-01-01

    Para melhor compreender as transições que ocorrem no mercado de trabalho, é importante considerar os fluxos de estar empregado, desempregado e fora do mercado de trabalho e as probabilidades envolvidas em função de variáveis socioeconômicas e geográficas. O modelo econométrico utilizado foi o multinomial logit, em que se observou que há diferença de gênero com respeito a estar ocupado e fora do mercado de trabalho, sendo que, para a primeira situação, a probabilidade é maior para o homem e, p...

  10. Determinants of Agricultural Diversification in a Hotspot Area: Evidence from Colonist and Indigenous Communities in the Sumaco Biosphere Reserve, Ecuadorian Amazon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bolier Torres

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available With data from a household survey covering migrant settlers and indigenous (Kichwa communities in the Sumaco Biosphere Reserve (SBR, this study analyses the drivers of agricultural diversification/specialisation, focusing on the role of ethnicity and the livelihood strategies (LS they follow. Data were collected using the Poverty and Environment Network methodology of the Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR-PEN. In order to establish the drivers of agricultural diversification, the number of crops and the Shannon index of crops areas were used as the dependent variables in ordinary least square (OLS models, while a multinomial logit model (MLM was used to assess a household’s degree of diversification. The results of the OLS regression provides evidence supporting the notion that households, with Livestock-based and Wage-based livelihood strategies (LS are less diversified and more specialized than households with Crop-based LS. Ethnicity has a positive and significant effect on agricultural diversification, with Kichwa farms more diversified than those of their migrant colonist counterparts. The results of the multinomial logit model (MLM show that large Kichwa households, with Crop-based and Forest-based LS are more likely to adopt a highly diversified agricultural strategy. Based on these findings, we recommend a redirection of agricultural incentives, towards the adoption of diversified agricultural systems, as a strategy to promote more sustainable production systems in the Ecuadorian Amazon Region.

  11. Influence of Parking Price on Parking Garage Users’ Behaviour

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jelena Simićević

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Parking charge is a powerful tool for solving parking and traffic congestion problems. In order to achieve the expected effects without any adverse impact it is necessary to understand well the users’ responses to this policy. This paper, based on a sample of interviewed parking garage users, has developed binary logit model for identification and quantification of characteristics of users and trips, on which the acceptance of parking price is dependent. In addition, multinomial logit model has been made in order to predict what the users will opt for when faced with an increase in parking price. For the first time the parameter “shorten duration” has been introduced which has shown to be the most significant in making behaviour-related decisions. The results show that the users with the purpose work are the most sensitive to an increase in parking charge, what can be deemed positive for policy makers. However, great sensitivity of the users with the purpose shopping should cause their concern. The results of the multinomial model show that they would not discontinue coming into the area after all.

  12. Factors influencing farmers’ choices of adaptation to climate change in Ekiti State, Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oluwakemi Adeola Obayelu

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Climate change poses a great threat to human security through erratic rainfall patterns and decreasing crop yields, contributing to increased hunger. The perceptions of the indigenous people about climate change and their responses to climate change have significant roles to play in addressing climate change. Therefore a critical study on farmers’ choices of adaptation to is critical for ensuring food security poverty alleviation. A multi-stage random sampling technique was used to select 156 households in Ekiti state while descriptive statistics and multinomial logit were used to analyze the data obtained from the households. The results showed that the most widely used adaptation method by the farmers were soil and water conservation measures (67 percent. The multinomial logit analysis revealed that the factors explaining farmer’s choices of climate change adaptation include age of the farmers, gender of the household head, years of education, years of farming experience, household size, farmers information on climate change, farmers access to credit, farm income, non-farm income, livestock ownership and extension contact.

  13. Occupational segregation, selection effects and gender wage differences: evidence from urban Colombia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jairo Guillermo Isaza Castro

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper assesses the effects of occupational segregation on the gender wage gap in urban Colombia between 1986 and 2000. The empirical methodology involves a two step procedure where by the occupational distributions ofworkers by gender aremodelled using a multinomial logit model in the first stage. In the second stage, the multinomial logit estimates are used not only to derive a counterfactual occupational distribution of women in the absence of workplace discrimination but also to correct for selectivity bias in thewage equations for each occupational category using the procedure suggested by Lee (1983. Besides the explained and unexplained components in conventional decompositions of the gender wage gap, this methodology differentiates between the justified and unjustified effects of the gender allocation ofworkers across occupational categories. The results for urban Colombia indicate that controlling for selectivity bias at the occupational category level is found to be relevant in all years reviewed in this study. They also suggest that a changing composition of the female labour supply in terms of un observables (i.e., ability and motivation is playing a role in the dramatic reduction of the observed wage gap.

  14. DETERMINANTS OF CHOICE OF CROP VARIETY AS CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION OPTION IN ARID REGIONS OF ZIMBABWE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James Zivanomoyo

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Impacts of climate change in developing countries remain poorly understood because few studies have successfully analyses the overall impact of climate on developing country economies. Agricultural growth is widely viewed as an effective and most important way to reduce poverty in developing countries which are hardly hit by the adverse effects of climate change (Datt and Ravallion, 1996. Despite this knowledge the main challenge is how to increase agricultural productivity to improve household welfare and increase food security in these changing and challenging climatic conditions. This study used the multinomial logit model to analyse the determinants of farmers' choice of crop variety in the face of climate change. The estimation of the multinomial logit was done by using the sorghum variety options as dependent variable and where farmers grow other crop different from sorghum as the reference state. Results show that the key determinants of choosing crop variety are; the price of existing crop variety, level of education of farmers, the size of the farms, government policies and incentives and credit availability.

  15. Modeling Stochastic Route Choice Behaviors with Equivalent Impedance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jun Li

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available A Logit-based route choice model is proposed to address the overlapping and scaling problems in the traditional multinomial Logit model. The nonoverlapping links are defined as a subnetwork, and its equivalent impedance is explicitly calculated in order to simply network analyzing. The overlapping links are repeatedly merged into subnetworks with Logit-based equivalent travel costs. The choice set at each intersection comprises only the virtual equivalent route without overlapping. In order to capture heterogeneity in perception errors of different sizes of networks, different scale parameters are assigned to subnetworks and they are linked to the topological relationships to avoid estimation burden. The proposed model provides an alternative method to model the stochastic route choice behaviors without the overlapping and scaling problems, and it still maintains the simple and closed-form expression from the MNL model. A link-based loading algorithm based on Dial’s algorithm is proposed to obviate route enumeration and it is suitable to be applied on large-scale networks. Finally a comparison between the proposed model and other route choice models is given by numerical examples.

  16. Modeling the Joint Choice Decisions on Urban Shopping Destination and Travel-to-Shop Mode: A Comparative Study of Different Structures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chuan Ding

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The joint choice of shopping destination and travel-to-shop mode in downtown area is described by making use of the cross-nested logit (CNL model structure that allows for potential interalternative correlation along the both choice dimensions. Meanwhile, the traditional multinomial logit (MNL model and nested logit (NL model are also formulated, respectively. This study uses the data collected in the downtown areas of Maryland-Washington, D.C. region, for shopping trips, considering household, individual, land use, and travel related characteristics. The results of the model reveal the significant influencing factors on joint choice travel behavior between shopping destination and travel mode. A comparison of the different models shows that the proposed CNL model structure offers significant improvements in capturing unobserved correlations between alternatives over MNL model and NL model. Moreover, a Monte Carlo simulation for a group of scenarios assuming that there is an increase in parking fees in downtown area is undertaken to examine the impact of a change in car travel cost on the joint choice of shopping destination and travel mode switching. The results are expected to give a better understanding on the shopping travel behavior.

  17. Farmers’ Adaptation Strategies to Climate Change and Their Implications in the Zou Department of South Benin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adégnandjou Mahouna Roland Fadina

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is a global phenomenon. Its impact on agricultural activities in developing countries has increased dramatically. Understanding how farmers perceive climate change and how they adapt to it is very important to the implementation of adequate policies for agricultural and food security. This paper aims to contribute to an understanding of farmers’ adaptation choices, determinants of the adaptation choices and the long-term implications of the adaptation choices. Data were collected from 120 respondents in the Zou Department of Benin. A binary logit model was used to analyze the factors influencing household decisions to adapt to climate change. Multinomial logistic regression analysis was estimated to analyze the factors influencing households’ choice of adaptation strategies to climate change. The results show that farmers have a developed perception of climate change. These changes are translated by rainfall disturbances (rainfall delays, early cessation, bad rainfall distribution etc., shortening of the small dry season, increasing of temperature and sometimes, violent winds. The survey reveals that Benin farmers adopt many strategies in response to climate change. These strategies include “Crop–livestock diversification and other good practices (mulching, organic fertilizer,” “Use of improved varieties, chemical fertilizers and pesticides,” “Agroforestry and perennial plantation” and “Diversification of income-generating activities.” The findings also reveal that most of the respondents use these strategies in combination. From the binary logit model, we know that “farming experience” and “educational level of household head” positively influence adaptation decisions. The result of the multinomial logit analysis shows that farming experience, educational level, farm size and gender have a significant impact on climate change adaptation strategies. Based on in-depth analysis of each strategy, we

  18. The importance of regret minimization in the choice for renewable energy programmes: Evidence from a discrete choice experiment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boeri, Marco; Longo, Alberto

    2017-01-01

    This study provides a methodologically rigorous attempt to disentangle the impact of various factors – unobserved heterogeneity, information and environmental attitudes – on the inclination of individuals to exhibit either a utility maximization or a regret minimization behaviour in a discrete choice experiment for renewable energy programmes described by four attributes: greenhouse gas emissions, power outages, employment in the energy sector, and electricity bill. We explore the ability of different models – multinomial logit, random parameters logit, and hybrid latent class – and of different choice paradigms – utility maximization and regret minimization – in explaining people's choices for renewable energy programmes. The “pure” random regret random parameters logit model explains the choices of our respondents better than other models, indicating that regret is an important choice paradigm, and that choices for renewable energy programmes are mostly driven by regret, rather than by rejoice. In particular, we find that our respondents' choices are driven more by changes in greenhouse gas emissions than by reductions in power outages. Finally, we find that changing the level of information to one attribute has no effect on choices, and that being a member of an environmental organization makes a respondent more likely to be associated with the utility maximization choice framework. - Highlights: • The first paper to use the Random Regret Minimization choice paradigm in energy economics • With a hybrid latent class model, choices conform to either utility or pure random regret. • The pure random regret random parameters logit model outperforms other models. • Reducing greenhouse gas emissions is more important than reducing power outages.

  19. Logits and Tigers and Bears, Oh My! A Brief Look at the Simple Math of Logistic Regression and How It Can Improve Dissemination of Results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osborne, Jason W.

    2012-01-01

    Logistic regression is slowly gaining acceptance in the social sciences, and fills an important niche in the researcher's toolkit: being able to predict important outcomes that are not continuous in nature. While OLS regression is a valuable tool, it cannot routinely be used to predict outcomes that are binary or categorical in nature. These…

  20. Logit Model of Analysing the Factors Affecting the Adoption of Goat Raising Activity by Farmers in the Non-pastoral Centre Region of Cameroon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Folefack, AJZ.

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Three years after the beginning of a goat project in the Centre region of Cameroon, the engagement of farmers in this activity has been timid. As this region is not a traditional pastoral zone, farmers have not yet incorporated the crop-livestock integration into their habits. Hence, this paper uses a logistic regression approach in order to analyse the factors affecting the adoption of goat raising activity by farmers of this locality. The computed odds ratio indicate that the practice of goat raising activity is significantly influenced by the farmer's age, gender, farming experience, practice of other livestock activities, frequency of contact with extension agents, access to credit and farm income. However, being a goat raiser does not depend on the farmer's marital status, education, farm size, household size, membership into a common initiative group. The study therefore recommends that the government authorities should give more attention to significant factors so as to popularize the goat raising activity in this region.

  1. The Design and Analysis of Salmonid Tagging Studies in the Columbia Basin; Volume XII; A Multinomial Model for Estimating Ocean Survival from Salmonid Coded Wire-Tag Data.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ryding, Kristen E.; Skalski, John R.

    1999-06-01

    The purpose of this report is to illustrate the development of a stochastic model using coded wire-tag (CWT) release and age-at-return data, in order to regress first year ocean survival probabilities against coastal ocean conditions and climate covariates.

  2. Maternal and anaesthesia-related risk factors and incidence of spinal anaesthesia-induced hypotension in elective caesarean section: A multinomial logistic regression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fakherpour, Atousa; Ghaem, Haleh; Fattahi, Zeinabsadat; Zaree, Samaneh

    2018-01-01

    Although spinal anaesthesia (SA) is nowadays the preferred anaesthesia technique for caesarean section (CS), it is associated with considerable haemodynamic effects, such as maternal hypotension. This study aimed to evaluate a wide range of variables (related to parturient and anaesthesia techniques) associated with the incidence of different degrees of SA-induced hypotension during elective CS. This prospective study was conducted on 511 mother-infant pairs, in which the mother underwent elective CS under SA. The data were collected through preset proforma containing three parts related to the parturient, anaesthetic techniques and a table for recording maternal blood pressure. It was hypothesized that some maternal (such as age) and anaesthesia-related risk factors (such as block height) were associated with occurance of SA-induced hypotension during elective CS. The incidence of mild, moderate and severe hypotension was 20%, 35% and 40%, respectively. Eventually, ten risk factors were found to be associated with hypotension, including age >35 years, body mass index ≥25 kg/m 2 , 11-20 kg weight gain, gravidity ≥4, history of hypotension, baseline systolic blood pressure (SBP) 100 beats/min in maternal modelling, fluid preloading ≥1000 ml, adding sufentanil to bupivacaine and sensory block height >T 4 in anaesthesia-related modelling ( P < 0.05). Age, body mass index, weight gain, gravidity, history of hypotension, baseline SBP and heart rate, fluid preloading, adding sufentanil to bupivacaine and sensory block hieght were the main risk factors identified in the study for SA-induced hypotension during CS.

  3. Economic analysis of the potential impact of climate change on recreational trout fishing in the Southern Appalachian Mountains: An appication of a nested multinomial logti model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soeun Ahn; Joseph E. de Steiguer; Raymond B. Palmquist; Thomas P. Holmes

    2000-01-01

    Global warming due to the enhanced greenhouse effect through human activities has become a major public policy issue in recent years. The present study focuses on the potential economic impact of climate change on recreational trout fishing in the Southern Appalachian Mountains of North Carolina. Significant reductions in trout habitat and/or populations are...

  4. A comparison of a new multinomial stopping rule with stopping rules of fleming and gehan in single arm phase II cancer clinical trials

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tu Dongsheng

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Response rate (RR alone may be insensitive to drug activity in phase II trials. Early progressive disease (EPD could improve sensitivity as well as increase stage I stopping rates. This study compares the previously developed dual endpoint stopping rule (DESR, which incorporates both RR and EPD into a two-stage, phase II trial, with rules using only RR. Methods Stopping rules according to the DESR were compared with studies conducted under the Fleming (16 trials or Gehan (23 trials designs. The RR hypothesis for the DESR was consistent with the comparison studies (ralt = 0.2, rnul = 0.05. Two parameter sets were used for EPD rates of interest and disinterest respectively (epdalt, epdnul: (0.4, 0.6 and (0.3, 0.5. Results Compared with Fleming, the DESR was more likely to allow stage two of accrual and to reject the null hypothesis (Hnul after stage two, with rejection being more common with EPD parameters (0.4, 0.6 than (0.3, 0.5. Compared with Gehan, both DESR parameter sets accepted Hnul in 15 trials after stage I compared with 8 trials by Gehan, with consistent conclusions in all 23 trials after stage II. Conclusions The DESR may reject Hnul when EPD rates alone are low, and thereby may improve phase II trial sensitivity to active, cytostatic drugs having limited response rates. Conversely, the DESR may invoke early stopping when response rates are low and EPD rates are high, thus shortening trials when drug activity is unlikely. EPD parameters should be chosen specific to each trial.

  5. Comparing Multiple-Group Multinomial Log-Linear Models for Multidimensional Skill Distributions in the General Diagnostic Model. Research Report. ETS RR-08-35

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Xueli; von Davier, Matthias

    2008-01-01

    The general diagnostic model (GDM) utilizes located latent classes for modeling a multidimensional proficiency variable. In this paper, the GDM is extended by employing a log-linear model for multiple populations that assumes constraints on parameters across multiple groups. This constrained model is compared to log-linear models that assume…

  6. Application of Multinomial Probit Model in Analyzing Factors Affecting the Occupation of Graduated Students from the University of Agricultural Applied-Science

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Mohammadi

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Introduction:Scientificand practicaltrainingwith an emphasis onoperation andapplication of what is taught and having an empiricalapproachto education isa more suitable approach for creating jobs. Preparation of educational needs of the agricultural sector by scientificand practicaltraining and providingemploymentin agreement with education and skills is one of the most important programs in order to achieve the objectives of comprehensive development of the country. An imbalance seems to exist between the processes and materials in university courses and the skills and abilities needed by the labor market and this is the most importantreason for the failureof the university graduatesin finding employment. This studyhas beendone for understandingthe type of jobof agricultural graduatesof training center of Jihad-e-Keshavarzi in Mashhad and the factor saffecting their employment. Materials and Methods: This study is an applied research and the statistical population is 167 and includes all the students who had earned a Bachelor’s degree who had come to receive their graduation certificates in 2011. The dependent variable is type of job which includes five categories of employment in the public sector related to education, employ men unrelated to the government, employment related tothe privatesector andthe unemployed who were seeking workin the private sector. Independent variables includegender,quotainuniversityadmissions, the level of interestin thefield of study,satisfaction withthe discipline, evaluationand trainingof graduatesofvocational skillsacquired incollegegraduates'assessmentof thework culturein the societyand evaluation oflack ofcapitalas a factor preventingemployment in the academicfield. Information was collected through questionnaires and the multiple probit mode lwas used. Results and discussion: The results ofthe survey showthatjobsof graduates are divided intofour categoriesincluding:Related to the field of study and governmental job (21%, non-related to field of study and governmental job (25.5%, related to field of study and private job (25.7, non-related to field of study and private job (8.4%, and 41.5% of graduates wereunemployed. 77% of the statistical population said that the cause of unemployment is lack of capital. The variables of professionalism and evaluation of work culture in the statistical population was intermediate. The model showed that gender, field of study choice based on the level of interest, satisfaction with the studies, andlack of capital as a barrier to employment, and evaluation of the educational and professional skills acquired during the studieshave a significantimpact on employment. The regression equation as a whole is significant. According to this, thelikelihoodof womenworkingingovernmentjobsand privateand non-private was lower than that of men. With increasinginterestin thefield of study,the possibility ofworkinginrelated and unrelatedprivate jobsincreased. By increasing thedegreeofsatisfaction, the possibility ofworkingingovernmentjobsincreased. The lack of funds for activities in the field of employment is one of the problems. Therefore, the more thelack of capitalto start andcontinueis highlighted, the more thetendency of people toget employed in a public officeand to avoidthe possibility ofsetting upprivate businesses is. Aboutthe possibility of working in unrelated government jobs, none of the variablesshoweda significant relationship. And the possibility ofworkinginprivatejobs, genderandlevel ofinterest inthe choiceof the field of studyshoweda significant relationship. Women are facing more difficulties than men in employmentin the agricultural sector. Conclusion:Therisk ofunemploymentis higheramong womengraduates since the usual trend is to create better condition and motivations formale farmerswho live in villages. Also they should be given them some low-interest loans usingbank’s financialresources until economicactivitiesare undertaken by them according totheir knowledge. Moreover, the role of themotivations, creativity andinnovation, creatingvalue-addedproducts, and thefunctional andoperationaltraininginhigher education centersofagriculture must be emphasized.Thelack of capitalasa major obstaclein this fieldmust also beconsidered. Special attention should be to theeducational and professionalskillsacquiredin the schoolthat could result inself-employedjobsin the private sectorandevenself-employedjobs in the agricultural sector. Activating skill development centers andentrepreneurshipinthe applied sciencelearning centers must be aimed at providing aplaceof interaction anddialogue which canplay a constructive roleinthe futureemploymentof graduates,and theidentification oftalents too. Given that themajority ofgraduateshave suggested thatcareerguidance has not been provided for them, the role of such centersisalso of high importance.

  7. Maternal and anaesthesia-related risk factors and incidence of spinal anaesthesia-induced hypotension in elective caesarean section: A multinomial logistic regression

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Atousa Fakherpour

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Background and Aims: Although spinal anaesthesia (SA is nowadays the preferred anaesthesia technique for caesarean section (CS, it is associated with considerable haemodynamic effects, such as maternal hypotension. This study aimed to evaluate a wide range of variables (related to parturient and anaesthesia techniques associated with the incidence of different degrees of SA-induced hypotension during elective CS. Methods: This prospective study was conducted on 511 mother–infant pairs, in which the mother underwent elective CS under SA. The data were collected through preset proforma containing three parts related to the parturient, anaesthetic techniques and a table for recording maternal blood pressure. It was hypothesized that some maternal (such as age and anaesthesia-related risk factors (such as block height were associated with occurance of SA-induced hypotension during elective CS. Results: The incidence of mild, moderate and severe hypotension was 20%, 35% and 40%, respectively. Eventually, ten risk factors were found to be associated with hypotension, including age >35 years, body mass index ≥25 kg/m2, 11–20 kg weight gain, gravidity ≥4, history of hypotension, baseline systolic blood pressure (SBP 100 beats/min in maternal modelling, fluid preloading ≥1000 ml, adding sufentanil to bupivacaine and sensory block height >T4in anaesthesia-related modelling (P < 0.05. Conclusion: Age, body mass index, weight gain, gravidity, history of hypotension, baseline SBP and heart rate, fluid preloading, adding sufentanil to bupivacaine and sensory block hieght were the main risk factors identified in the study for SA-induced hypotension during CS.

  8. The relationship between organizational culture and performance in acute hospitals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacobs, Rowena; Mannion, Russell; Davies, Huw T O; Harrison, Stephen; Konteh, Fred; Walshe, Kieran

    2013-01-01

    This paper examines the relationship between senior management team culture and organizational performance in English acute hospitals (NHS Trusts) over three time periods between 2001/2002 and 2007/2008. We use a validated culture rating instrument, the Competing Values Framework, to measure senior management team culture. Organizational performance is assessed using a wide range of routinely collected indicators. We examine the associations between organizational culture and performance using ordered probit and multinomial logit models. We find that organizational culture varies across hospitals and over time, and this variation is at least in part associated in consistent and predictable ways with a variety of organizational characteristics and routine measures of performance. Moreover, hospitals are moving towards more competitive culture archetypes which mirror the current policy context, though with a stronger blend of cultures. The study provides evidence for a relationship between culture and performance in hospital settings. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Should We Leave? Attitudes towards Relocation in Response to Sea Level Rise

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jie Song

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The participation of individuals contributes significantly to the success of sea level rise adaptation. This study therefore addresses what influences people’s likelihood of relocating away from low-lying areas in response to rising sea levels. The analysis was based on a survey conducted in the City of Panama Beach in Florida (USA. Survey items relate to people’s risk perception, hazard experience, threat appraisal, and coping appraisal, whose theoretical background is Protection Motivation Theory. Descriptive and correlation analysis was first performed to highlight critical factors which were then examined by a multinomial Logit model. Results show that sea level rise awareness is the major explanatory variable. Coping appraisal is qualitatively viewed as a strong predictor for action, while threat appraisal is statistically significant in driving relocation intention. These factors should be integrated in current risk communication regarding sea level rise.

  10. Completion of Upper Secondary Education: What Mechanisms Are at Stake?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Munk, Martin D.

    2013-01-01

    also investigate the importance of characteristics other than the traditional variables, such as fathers’ and mothers’ occupations, their education and household income, often applied in studies of educational attainment. I used a recent 1984 cohort database with information about educational...... completion and an informative set of measurements on non-cognitive capacities, parental cultural capital, cultural capital, reading score, several school-related variables, and a rich set of family background variables. Attainment of upper secondary education was analyzed by a multinomial logit model......, showing that characteristics other than the traditional variables all have significant importance. The analysis clearly depicted that the social position and educational levels of both parents remain important in determining whether the child embarks on completing an upper secondary education...

  11. Quantifying rural livelihood strategies in developing countries using an activity choice approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Øystein Juul; Rayamajhi, Santosh; Uberhuaga de Arratia, Patricia D C

    2013-01-01

    outcomes are compared across strategies and household differences in asset holdings are analyzed using multinomial logit regression. Findings reveal that income diversification is the norm, that a higher degree of specialization does not characterize more remunerative livelihood strategies, that nonfarm......This article uses a quantitative activity choice approach, based on identification of activity variables and application of latent class cluster analysis, to identify five major rural livelihood strategies pursued by households (n= 576) in Bolivia, Nepal, and Mozambique. Income sources and welfare...... income significantly contributes to higher income earnings, that environmental reliance does not vary across strategies, and that small-scale farmers are the largest and poorest livelihood group. Some livelihood strategies are superior to all other strategies in terms of income earned; access to more...

  12. The effects of mandatory health insurance on equity in access to outpatient care in Indonesia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hidayat, Budi; Thabrany, Hasbullah; Dong, Hengjin; Sauerborn, Rainer

    2004-09-01

    This paper examines the effects of mandatory health insurance on access and equity in access to public and private outpatient care in Indonesia. Data from the second round of the 1997 Indonesian Family Life Survey were used. We adopted the concentration index as a measure of equity, and this was calculated from actual data and from predicted probability of outpatient-care use saved from a multinomial logit regression. The study found that a mandatory insurance scheme for civil servants (Askes) had a strongly positive impact on access to public outpatient care, while a mandatory insurance scheme for private employees (Jamsostek) had a positive impact on access to both public and private outpatient care. The greatest effects of Jamsostek were observed amongst poor beneficiaries. A substantial increase in access will be gained by expanding insurance to the whole population. However, neither Askes nor Jamsostek had a positive impact on equity. Policy implications are discussed.

  13. Best-Worst scaling…reflections on presentation, analysis, and lessons learnt from case 3 BWS experiments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Adamsen, Jannie Mia; Rundle-Thiele, Sharyn; Whitty, Jennifer

    2013-01-01

    Surveys based on Likert scales and similar ratings-based scales continue to dominate market research practice despite their many and well-documented limitations. Key issues of concern for Likert scales include over- or under-reporting depending on the context, and variation in responses based......,600 respondents. One case 3 BW experiment investigating consumer preferences for organic apples is featured and evaluated using two approaches. The first analysis treats the data as a case 1 BW experiment to outline the simplicity of case 1 analysis. Case 3 BW analysis involving multinomial logit and latent class...... do believe the BWS method has a significant potential to improve predictability in market research – the response rate and positive participant feedback speaks for itself....

  14. Going Back Part-time: Family Leave Legislation and Women's Return to Work.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schott, Whitney

    2012-02-01

    Using a multinomial logit model with data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation, this paper tests whether the implementation of the Family and Medical Leave Act (FMLA) is associated with an increase in return to work at part-time status among first-time mothers working full-time during their pregnancy. I find a statistically significant trend of increasingly higher odds of returning to work at part-time status relative to return at full-time status, beginning in 1993 (the year in which the FMLA is implemented). Furthermore, an additional week of either state or federal leave is significantly associated with a higher odds of return at part-time status. This article provides evidence that job protection and leave legislation may help facilitate higher levels of labor force participation among women with small children, through more flexible work arrangements.

  15. Going Back Part-time: Family Leave Legislation and Women’s Return to Work

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Using a multinomial logit model with data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation, this paper tests whether the implementation of the Family and Medical Leave Act (FMLA) is associated with an increase in return to work at part-time status among first-time mothers working full-time during their pregnancy. I find a statistically significant trend of increasingly higher odds of returning to work at part-time status relative to return at full-time status, beginning in 1993 (the year in which the FMLA is implemented). Furthermore, an additional week of either state or federal leave is significantly associated with a higher odds of return at part-time status. This article provides evidence that job protection and leave legislation may help facilitate higher levels of labor force participation among women with small children, through more flexible work arrangements. PMID:22685365

  16. Short-term poverty dynamics of rural households: Evidence from Central Sulawesi, Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefan Schwarze

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available The understanding of poverty dynamics is crucial for the design of appropriate poverty reduction strategies. Taking the case of Central Sulawesi, we investigate the determinants of both chronic and transitory poverty using data from 264 randomly selected households interviewed in 2005 and 2007. Regarding the US 1$/day poverty line, the headcount index declined from 19.3% in 2005 to 18.2% in 2007. However, we observed an increasing number of people living on less than US 2$/day expressed in purchasing power parity (PPP. The results of the estimated multinomial logit model applied in this study indicate that a lack of non-agricultural employment opportunities and low endowment of social capital are major determinants of chronic as well as transitory poverty in this province of Indonesia. These results are used to draw policy conclusions with respect to the alleviation of transitory and chronic poverty in Central Sulawesi.

  17. Fidelización y rentabilización de usuarios de seguros todo riesgo de vehículos por medio de la venta cruzada y la venta escalonada. Un enfoque promocional para la industria aseguradora

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos Gabriel Contreras Serrano

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Mantener relaciones activas con clientes rentables es uno de los principales objetivos de la industria aseguradora en Colombia. Para esto y para generar campañas de retención, se han desarrollado modelos tácticos de segmentación que tienen en cuenta la probabilidad de fuga del cliente y el valor vitalicio del mismo. Esta investigación propone un diseño de análisis conjunto con 560 tomadores de pólizas de seguros de autos en diversas latitudes del país. Se examinan los esquemas promocionales que aceleran la probabilidad de renovar la póliza de seguro que tienen con su agencia aseguradora actual. La aplicación de un modelo logit multinomial ofrece evidencia de que las promociones bajo venta cruzada son eficientes para fidelizar usuarios rentables, mientras la venta escalonada es propicia para rentabilizar clientes fieles.

  18. Education and Occupational Outcomes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Johnes, Geraint; Freguglia, Ricardo; Spricigo, Gisele

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to examine the dynamic relationship between policies related to educational provision and both educational participation and occupational outcomes in Brazil, using PNAD and RAIS-Migra data. Design/methodology/approach: Outcomes are examined using: static...... multinomial logit analysis, and structural dynamic discrete choice modelling. The latter approach, coupled with the quality of the RAIS-Migra data source, allows the authors to evaluate the education policy impacts over time. Findings: The main results show that the education level raises the propensity...... that the individual will be in formal sector work or still in education, and reduces the probability of the other outcomes. Transition into non-manual formal sector work following education may, however, occur via a spell of manual work. Originality/value: This is the first study of occupational destination...

  19. Social influence, agent heterogeneity and the emergence of the urban informal sector

    Science.gov (United States)

    García-Díaz, César; Moreno-Monroy, Ana I.

    2012-02-01

    We develop an agent-based computational model in which the urban informal sector acts as a buffer where rural migrants can earn some income while queuing for higher paying modern-sector jobs. In the model, the informal sector emerges as a result of rural-urban migration decisions of heterogeneous agents subject to social influence in the form of neighboring effects of varying strengths. Besides using a multinomial logit choice model that allows for agent idiosyncrasy, explicit agent heterogeneity is introduced in the form of socio-demographic characteristics preferred by modern-sector employers. We find that different combinations of the strength of social influence and the socio-economic composition of the workforce lead to very different urbanization and urban informal sector shares. In particular, moderate levels of social influence and a large proportion of rural inhabitants with preferred socio-demographic characteristics are conducive to a higher urbanization rate and a larger informal sector.

  20. The Dynamics of Online Purchase Visits: Inertia or Switching?

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zelin Zhang; Xia Wang; Peter T.L.Popkowski Leszczyc; Xiao Zuo

    2016-01-01

    This paper studies the dynamics of online purchase patterns,focusing on the impact of the channel used on conversion probability,as well as the transition of channel use over time.A novel data set from a major Chinese online travel agency is used for analysis,consisting of four months of data with 24,337 store visits through three types of channels:direct visit,search advertising and referral.Results of a Bayesian multinomial logit model show that the search channel significantly affects consumers' conversion probability,and show a high degree of inertia in channel use.This finding contrasts sharply with suggestions of previous research that most future purchases will converge to the direct-visit channel.

  1. Land related grievances shape tropical forest-cover in areas affected by armed-conflict

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nunez, Augusto Carlos Castro; Mertz, Ole; Buritica, Alexander

    2017-01-01

    Armed-conflicts often occur in tropical areas considered to be of high ‘conservation-value’, termed as such for their biodiversity or carbon-storage functions. Despite this important overlap, few studies have assessed how forest-biomass is affected by armed-conflicts. Thus, in this paper we develop...... a multinomial logit model to examine how outcomes of the interactions between carbon-storage, armed-conflict and deforestation rates are linked to social, institutional and economic factors. We use Colombia as a case study because of its protracted armed-conflict, high forest-cover, sustained deforestation......-ownership disputes, the Colombian government might uphold their international climate change commitments via reducing deforestation and hence forest based carbon emissions, while pursuing their national security objective via undermining opportunities for guerrilla groups to operate....

  2. Sources of Variation in the Age Composition of Sandeel Landings

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kvist, Trine; Gislason, Hannes; Thyregod, Poul

    2001-01-01

    in the samples is significantly lower in the start and end of the fishing season. This suggests that the older sandeel are available to the fishery for a shorter time period that the 1-group. Significant differences are found in the age composition between the four laboratories involved in the age determination......The variation of the age composition of the landings of lesser sandeel in the Danish industrial fishery in the North Sea over the period From 1984-1993 is analysed by continuation-ratio logits and generalised linear models. The analysis takes the multinomial characteristics of the age composition....... Although the variation between ICES statistical rectangles is substantial there is a significant difference between the age composition in the northern and southern part of the North Sea. However, only one of the three finer geographical stratifications proposed to improve the assessment results...

  3. Bottom fish assemblages at the shelf and continental slope off East Greenland

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Ole A; Hvingel, Carsten; Møller, P.R.

    2015-01-01

    During 2006 and 2008 two bottom trawl surveys were conducted at East Greenland to 72°N covering depths down to 1500 m. In the 149 trawl hauls in total 113 fish species were recorded of which 37 were considered pelagic and excluded from the analyses. As a first step the abundance data for the 76...... benthic species were used for analyses of the fish fauna diversity and fish assemblages. Nine assemblages were found by a standard type of cluster analysis. A Bayesian multinomial logit model was then applied to calculate vectors of probabilities defining the likelihood of each haul belonging to each...... distribution, species composition, temperature and depth. Three of the assemblages were located in the cold Iceland Sea while six were found in the somewhat warmer Irminger Sea...

  4. Internal migration in Mexico and its determinants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rogelio Varela Llamas

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an analysis of internal migration in Mexico. Using micro data from the National Survey on Occupation and Employment (enoe, we estimate a multinomial logit model for the case of intrastate and interstate migration. We also conduct estimations for municipalities of different sizes. The results suggest that the probability of migrating increases with the number of weeks spent searching for a job, regardless of whether the search is conducted while the individual is employed or unemployed. In addition, we find that as the number of hours of work per week increases, the probability of migrating rises. The search process does not increase the probability of migrating in rural communities as it does in urban centers.

  5. Pobreza subjetiva y reconocimiento étnico en Colombia: análisis para principales regiones, año 2013

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Santiago Arroyo-Mina

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available En este artículo se contrasta empíricamente la hipótesis que, en Colombia, laraza tiene un efecto significativo en la percepción de pobreza de los propiosindividuos y condiciona la manera como éstos perciben los diferentes aspectosde bienestar. Se emplea la Encuesta Nacional de Calidad de Vida (ECV reali-zada en Colombia para el año 2013. La estimación de un modelo logit multi-nomial revela que el ser afrocolombiano aumenta la probabilidad de percibir queel ingreso promedio del hogar no es suficiente para cubrir sus gastos mínimos yaleja la probabilidad de percibir que éstos sean, al menos, suficientes.

  6. Meta-analysis data for 104 Energy-Economy Nexus papers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hajko, Vladimír; Kociánová, Agáta; Buličková, Martina

    2017-06-01

    The data presented here are manually encoded characteristics of research papers in the area of Energy-Economy Nexus (empirical investigation of Granger causality between energy consumption and economic growth) that describe the methods, samples, and other details related to the individual estimations done in the examined empirical papers. Data cover papers indexed by Scopus, published in economic journals, written in English, after year 2000. In addition, papers were manually filtered to only those that deal with Energy-Economy Nexus investigation and have at least 10 citations at (at the time of query - November 2015). This data are to be used to conduct meta-analysis - associated dataset was used in Hajko [1]. Early version of the dataset was used for multinomial logit estimation in Master thesis by Kociánová [2].

  7. Customization in prescribing for bipolar disorder.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hodgkin, Dominic; Volpe-Vartanian, Joanna; Merrick, Elizabeth L; Horgan, Constance M; Nierenberg, Andrew A; Frank, Richard G; Lee, Sue

    2012-06-01

    For many disorders, patient heterogeneity requires physicians to customize their treatment to each patient's needs. We test for the existence of customization in physicians' prescribing for bipolar disorder, using data from a naturalistic clinical effectiveness trial of bipolar disorder treatment (STEP-BD), which did not constrain physician prescribing. Multinomial logit is used to model the physician's choice among five combinations of drug classes. We find that our observed measure of the patient's clinical status played only a limited role in the choice among drug class combinations, even for conditions such as mania that are expected to affect class choice. However, treatment of a patient with given characteristics differed widely depending on which physician was seen. The explanatory power of the model was low. There was variation within each physician's prescribing, but the results do not suggest a high degree of customization in physicians' prescribing, based on our measure of clinical status. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  8. Modeling the Perceptions and Preferences of Pedestrians on Crossing Facilities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hongwei Guo

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Pedestrian’s street-crossing behaviour has a significant effect on traffic performance and safety. The crossing behaviour is determined by human factors and environmental factors. Aiming at examining the pedestrian perceptions toward crossing facilities and preferences for crossing locations, an observational study of pedestrian crossing behaviour at urban street is conducted. The perceptions and preferences of pedestrians are collected using stated preference technique. A specific questionnaire is designed to conduct the stated preference survey. A multinomial logit model is proposed to describe the perceptions and preferences of pedestrians on crossing facilities and locations. The sensitivity analysis is performed to discuss the influence of various factors on crossing behaviour. Then the relationship between crossing locations and crossing distances is analyzed by a new proposed method. With the theoretical analysis, the engineering solutions considering pedestrian behaviour are suggested. The results are helpful to design human-centered crossing facilities in urban traffic.

  9. Making difficult decisions: the role of quality of care in choosing a nursing home.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pesis-Katz, Irena; Phelps, Charles E; Temkin-Greener, Helena; Spector, William D; Veazie, Peter; Mukamel, Dana B

    2013-05-01

    We investigated how quality of care affects choosing a nursing home. We examined nursing home choice in California, Ohio, New York, and Texas in 2001, a period before the federal Nursing Home Compare report card was published. Thus, consumers were less able to observe clinical quality or clinical quality was masked. We modeled nursing home choice by estimating a conditional multinomial logit model. In all states, consumers were more likely to choose nursing homes of high hotel services quality but not clinical care quality. Nursing home choice was also significantly associated with shorter distance from prior residence, not-for-profit status, and larger facility size. In the absence of quality report cards, consumers choose a nursing home on the basis of the quality dimensions that are easy for them to observe, evaluate, and apply to their situation. Future research should focus on identifying the quality information that offers the most value added to consumers.

  10. [Depression Symptoms of Mothers and Fathers of Persons with Schizophrenia].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexandrowicz, Rainer W; König, Daniel; Unger, Annemarie; Klug, Günter; Soulier, Nathalie; Freidl, Marion; Friedrich, Fabian

    2016-05-01

    The purpose of the present study was to investigate if depression symptomatology of patients' parents is predicted by the symptoms of schizophrenia. 101 mothers and 101 fathers of the same patients suffering from schizophrenia were included into this study. Parents filled in the "Beck Depression Inventory". Patients were assessed by means of the "Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale". For statistical analyses a Multidimensional Random Coefficients Multinomial Logit Model was applied. We found a significant positive association between negative symptoms and depression severity of fathers and mothers. Further, a significant positive association between positive symptoms and depression severity of fathers, but not of mothers was found. Our results show that depression of mothers and of fathers is associated with symptoms of schizophrenia even when controlling for potential predictors. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

  11. Assessing Tourists’ Preferences for Recreational Trips in National and Natural Parks as a Premise for Long-Term Sustainable Management Plans

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diana E. Dumitras

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Sustainable tourism management plans rely on relevant and consistent information about factors that can influence the decision to visit a protected area. This paper uses the choice experiment method to investigate tourists’ preferences with regard to recreational trip characteristics in national and natural parks in Romania. An on-site survey questionnaire was administered to visitors. The multinomial logit model was employed to investigate the preference orderings of the identified groups of recreational users. Overall, results indicate that tourists gain benefits after visiting the parks. Main preference differences were found for information sources and location of campsites. Visitors who stated that the park was the main trip destination were willing to have access to more information sources, the marks on trails being insufficient. Camping is preferred only in organized places, expressing the concern for environmental protection. The results of this study have management implications, highlighting the importance of assessing tourists’ preferences as a foundation for developing sustainable tourism strategies.

  12. Health Care Workers’ Risk Perceptions and Willingness to Report for Work during an Influenza Pandemic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Georges Dionne

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available The ability and willingness of health care workers to report for work during a pandemic are essential to pandemic response. The main contribution of this article is to examine the relationship between risk perception of personal and work activities and willingness to report for work during an influenza pandemic. Data were collected through a quantitative Web-based survey sent to health care workers on the island of Montreal. Respondents were asked about their perception of various risks to obtain index measures of risk perception. A multinomial logit model was applied for the probability estimations, and a factor analysis was conducted to compute risk perception indexes (scores. Risk perception associated with personal and work activities is a significant predictor of intended presence at work during an influenza pandemic. This means that correcting perceptual biases should be a public policy concern. These results have not been previously reported in the literature. Many organizational variables are also significant.

  13. The role of respondents’ comfort for variance in stated choice surveys

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Emang, Diana; Lundhede, Thomas; Thorsen, Bo Jellesmark

    2017-01-01

    they complete surveys correlates with the error variance in stated choice models of their responses. Comfort-related variables are included in the scale functions of the scaled multinomial logit models. The hypothesis was that higher comfort reduces error variance in answers, as revealed by a higher scale...... parameter and vice versa. Information on, e.g., sleep and time since eating (higher comfort) correlated with scale heterogeneity, and produced lower error variance when controlled for in the model. That respondents’ comfort may influence choice behavior suggests that knowledge of the respondents’ activity......Preference elicitation among outdoor recreational users is subject to measurement errors that depend, in part, on survey planning. This study uses data from a choice experiment survey on recreational SCUBA diving to investigate whether self-reported information on respondents’ comfort when...

  14. Determinants of edible oil choice by households in Tamil Nadu, India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Govindaraj, Gurrappa Naidu; Suryaprakash, Satrasala

    2013-01-01

    This study investigated the major determinants that influence the choice of edible oils by households across geographical zones in Tamil Nadu state, India. The primary data from 1,000 sample households were collected using a structured pre-tested questionnaire. Multinomial logit model was fitted for determining the factors. The results revealed that education, income, and households with a history of health problems were the important determinants that influenced the choice of low-saturated-fat oils, whereas the larger size households and weaker section households preferred low-priced palm oil. Income and education levels in Tamil Nadu state surged ahead in recent years. In consonance to these changes the nontraditional low-saturated fat containing sunflower oil demand will increase in many folds in coming years. Hence, besides traditional oils, sunflower oil production has to be stepped up on "mission mode" through appropriate production programs to meet the present and future edible oil demand domestically.

  15. The Milking Profile of Dairy Cattle Farms in Central Macedonia (Greece

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ioannis Mitsopoulos

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to provide insights of the profile of the dairy farms of Central Macedonia (Greece, in terms of their milking practices. The analysis is based on data from a random sample of 123 dairy farms, obtained by means of a survey. The employment of the Categorical Principal Component Analysis on the 14 variables initially used to describe milking practices and of the Two-Step Cluster Analysis led to the grouping of the 123 farms to three clusters. Farms of the first cluster, named “Innovative”, use state-of-the-art equipment, automatic systems and innovative milking techniques (31.1% of the sample farms. “Peasant” farms (11.4% are mainly extensive, using mainly bucket plants. The third and most abundant group, the “Modernizing” farms (54.5% are use equipment of reasonable standards and some of them are on the process of renewing it. The results of a Multinomial Logit model verify that “Innovative” farms are large and achieve high yields, while the “Modernizing” ones are smaller, producing milk of lower quality and they are owned by relatively older dairy farmers. An interesting profile is depicted for “Peasant” farms, as they achieve satisfactory economic performance, combined with adequate milk quality. The analytical framework included the reduction of analysis variables to a smaller group of “dimensions”, using the Categorical Principal Component Analysis (CatPCA, based on which farms were clustered to alternative profiles, by employing a Two-Step Cluster (TSC Analysis. Differences in elements of milk quality and in the social profile of farms and farmers were examined among alternative profiles through the estimation of Multinomial Logit Models.

  16. The Impact of Cigarette Packaging Design Among Young Females in Canada: Findings From a Discrete Choice Experiment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kotnowski, Kathy; Fong, Geoffrey T; Gallopel-Morvan, Karine; Islam, Towhidul; Hammond, David

    2016-05-01

    The tobacco industry uses various aspects of cigarette packaging design to market to specific groups. The current study examined the relative importance of five cigarette packaging attributes--pack structure (eg, "slims"), brand, branding, warning label size, and price--on perceptions of product taste, harm, and interest in trying, among young females in Canada. A discrete choice experiment was conducted with smoking and nonsmoking females, aged 16 to 24 (N = 448). Respondents were shown 10 choice sets, each containing four packs with different combinations of the attributes: pack structure (slim, lipstick, booklet, traditional); brand ("Vogue," "du Maurier"); branding (branded, plain); warning label size (50%, 75%); and price ($8.45, $10.45). For each choice set, respondents chose the brand that they: (1) would rather try, (2) would taste better, and (3) would be less harmful, or "none." For each outcome, the attributes' impact on consumer choice was analyzed using a multinomial logit model. The multinomial logit analyses revealed that young females weighted pack structure to be most important to their intention to try (46%), judgment of product taste (52%), and judgment of product harm (48%). Price and branding were weighted important in trial intent decisions (23% and 18%, respectively) and product taste judgments (29% and 15%, respectively). Whereas warning label size and brand were weighted important when judging product harm (23% and 17%, respectively). The findings suggest that standardized cigarette packaging may decrease demand and reduce misleading perceptions about product harm among young females. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  17. A real-time crash prediction model for the ramp vicinities of urban expressways

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Moinul Hossain

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Ramp vicinities are arguably the known black-spots on urban expressways. There, while maintaining high speed, drivers need to respond to several complex events such as maneuvering, reading road signs, route planning and maintaining safe distance from other maneuvering vehicles simultaneously which demand higher level of cognitive response to ensure safety. Therefore, any additional discomfort caused by traffic dynamics may induce driving error resulting in a crash. This manuscript presents a methodology for identifying these dynamically forming hazardous traffic conditions near the ramp vicinities with high resolution real-time traffic flow data. It separates the ramp vicinities into four zones – upstream and downstream of entrance and exit ramps, and builds four separate real-time crash prediction models. Around two year (December 2007 to October 2009 crash data as well as their matching traffic sensor data from Shibuya 3 and Shinjuku 4 expressways under the jurisdiction of Tokyo Metropolitan Expressway Company Limited have been utilized for this research. Random multinomial logit, a forest of multinomial logit models, has been used to identify the most important variables. Finally, a real-time modeling method, Bayesian belief net (BBN, has been employed to build the four models using ramp flow, flow and congestion index in the upstream and flow and speed in the downstream of the ramp location as variables. The newly proposed models could predict 50%, 42%, 43% and 55% of the future crashes with around 10% false alarm for the downstream of entrance, downstream of exit, upstream of entrance and upstream of exit ramps respectively. The models can be utilized in combination with various traffic smoothing measures such as ramp metering, variable speed limit, warning messages through variable message signs, etc. to enhance safety near the ramp vicinities.

  18. Drivers of multidimensional eco-innovation: empirical evidence from the Brazilian industry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    da Silva Rabêlo, Olivan; de Azevedo Melo, Andrea Sales Soares

    2018-03-08

    The study analyses the relationships between the main drivers of eco-innovation introduced by innovative industries, focused on cooperation strategy. Eco-innovation is analysed by means of a multidimensional identification strategy, showing the relationships between the independent variables and the variable of interest. The literature discussing environmental innovation is different from the one discussing other types of innovation inasmuch as it seeks to grasp its determinants and to mostly highlight the relevance of environmental regulation. The key feature of this paper is that it ascribes special relevance to cooperation strategy with external partners and to the propensity of innovative industry introducing eco-innovation. A sample of 35,060 Brazilian industries were analysed, between 2003 and 2011, by means of Binomial, Multinomial and Ordinal logistic regressions with microdata collected with the research and innovation department (PINTEC) from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística). The econometric results estimated by the Logit Multinomial method suggest that the cooperation with external partners practiced by innovative industries facilitates the adoption of eco-innovation in dimension 01 with probability of 64.59%, 57.63% in dimension 02 and 81.02% in dimension 03. The data reveal that the higher the degree of eco-innovation complexity, the harder industries seek to obtain cooperation with external partners. When calculating with the Logit Ordinal and Binomial models, cooperation increases the probability that the industry is eco-innovative in 65.09% and 89.34%, respectively. Environmental regulation and innovation in product and information management were also positively correlated as drivers of eco-innovation.

  19. Analysis of transtheoretical model of health behavioral changes in a nutrition intervention study--a continuous time Markov chain model with Bayesian approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Junsheng; Chan, Wenyaw; Tsai, Chu-Lin; Xiong, Momiao; Tilley, Barbara C

    2015-11-30

    Continuous time Markov chain (CTMC) models are often used to study the progression of chronic diseases in medical research but rarely applied to studies of the process of behavioral change. In studies of interventions to modify behaviors, a widely used psychosocial model is based on the transtheoretical model that often has more than three states (representing stages of change) and conceptually permits all possible instantaneous transitions. Very little attention is given to the study of the relationships between a CTMC model and associated covariates under the framework of transtheoretical model. We developed a Bayesian approach to evaluate the covariate effects on a CTMC model through a log-linear regression link. A simulation study of this approach showed that model parameters were accurately and precisely estimated. We analyzed an existing data set on stages of change in dietary intake from the Next Step Trial using the proposed method and the generalized multinomial logit model. We found that the generalized multinomial logit model was not suitable for these data because it ignores the unbalanced data structure and temporal correlation between successive measurements. Our analysis not only confirms that the nutrition intervention was effective but also provides information on how the intervention affected the transitions among the stages of change. We found that, compared with the control group, subjects in the intervention group, on average, spent substantively less time in the precontemplation stage and were more/less likely to move from an unhealthy/healthy state to a healthy/unhealthy state. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  20. Poverty dynamics in Brazilian metropolitan areas: An analysis based on Hulme and Shepherd's categorization (2002–2011

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Solange Ledi Gonçalves

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Ever-more sophisticated studies on the methodological approach and the conceptual scope of poverty have led to a consensus among scholars on the dynamic characteristic of this phenomenon – in other words, the existence of an in-and-out of privation movement of individuals and families. Within this context, Hulme and Shepherd (2003 defined five groups according to the location of the punctual and average indicators of poverty vis-à-vis the poverty line. This paper's objective is to adapt this typology to Brazil, using PME (Monthly Job Survey micro-data for the 2002–2011 timeframe and the six Brazilian Metropolitan Regions covered by PME as well as, by estimating a multinomial logit, investigate which family characteristics relate to a greater or lesser chance of belonging to each of the chronic and transitory poverty categories. Categorization allows observation that, despite a sweeping across-the-board decline in the percentage of families in all poverty categories in the past decade, those families always or usually poor display demographic, socioeconomic, access to and insertion into the labor market categories which differ from families in transitory poverty or classified as never poor. Moreover, Northeastern metropolitan regions (Salvador and Recife have higher percentages of chronic or transitory poverty. Multinomial logit estimates make it possible to verify that families whose members have completed secondary schooling or college or hold a higher-qualified occupation stand lesser chances of entering into or remaining in poverty. Results call for differentiating among poor families, as they enter into or leave poverty – which is tantamount to saying that the dynamics of poverty must be taken into account as public policies are drawn up.

  1. Malaria care seeking behavior of individuals in Ghana under the NHIS: Are we back to the use of informal care?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fenny, Ama Pokuaa; Asante, Felix A; Enemark, Ulrika; Hansen, Kristian S

    2015-04-12

    Malaria is Ghana's most endemic disease; occurring across most parts of the country with a significant impact on individuals and the health system as whole. Treatment seeking for malaria care takes various forms. The National Health Insurance Scheme (NHIS) was introduced in 2004 to promote access to health services to mitigate the negative impact of the user fee regime. Ten years on, national coverage is less than 40% of the total population and patients continue to make direct payments for health services. This paper analyses the care-seeking behaviour of households for treatment of malaria in Ghana under the NHI policy. Using a cross-sectional survey of household data collected from three districts in Ghana covering the 3 ecological zones namely the coastal, forest and savannah, a multinomial logit model is estimated. The sample consists of 365 adults and children reporting being ill with malaria in the last four weeks prior to the study. Out of the total, 58% were insured and 71% of them sought care from a formal health facility. Among the insured, 15% chose informal care compared to 48% among the uninsured. The results from the multinomial logit estimations show that health insurance and travel time to health facility are significant determinants of health care demand. The results show that the insured are 6 times more likely to choose regional/district hospitals: 5 times more likely to choose health centres/clinics and 7 times more likely to choose private hospitals/clinics over informal care when compared with the uninsured. Individual characteristics such as age, education and wealth status were significant determinants of health care provider choice for specific categories of health facilities. Overall, for malaria care the uninsured are more likely to choose informal care compared to the insured for the treatment of malaria.

  2. The Cressey hypothesis (1953 and an investigation into the occurrence of corporate fraud: an empirical analysis conducted in Brazilian banking institutions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michele Rílany Rodrigues Machado

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT This article fills a technical-scientific gap that currently exists in the Brazilian literature on corporative fraud, by combining the theoretical framework of agency theory, of criminology, and of the economics of crime. In addition, it focuses on a sector that is usually excluded from analyses due to its specific characteristics and shows the application of multinomial logit panel data regression with random effects, which is rarely used in studies in the area of accounting. The aim of this study is to investigate the occurrence of corporative fraud, as well as cases of fraud in Brazilian banking institutions, by using detection variables related to the Cressey fraud triangle. Research into fraud and methods of detecting fraud has grown in management literature, especially after the occurrence of various corporative scandals in the 1990s. Although regulatory agencies have increased their investments in monitoring and control, fraud investigations and convictions are still common in the day-to-day administration of banks, as can be seen in the Brazilian Central Bank and the National Financial System Resource Council’s databases of punitive proceedings. We believe that this article will have a positive impact in the area of accounting sciences, since it involves corporative fraud in a multidisciplinary form and because it provides the incentive to use a quantitative tool that can help increase the development of similar studies in the area. This study tested the theory that the dimensions of the fraud triangle condition the occurrence of corporative fraud in Brazilian banking institutions. Thirty-two representative variables of corporative fraud were identified in the theoretical-empirical review, which were reduced to seven latent variables by the principal component analysis. Finally, the seven factors formed the independent variables in the multinomial logit models used in the hypothesis tests, which presented promising results.

  3. Emergence Corporate Financial Distressin Emerging Market: Empirical Evidence from Indonesia Stock Exchange(IDX 2004-2008

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Koes Pranowo

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Normal 0 false false false MicrosoftInternetExplorer4 st1\\:*{behavior:url(#ieooui } /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0cm; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:10.0pt; font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-ansi-language:#0400; mso-fareast-language:#0400; mso-bidi-language:#0400;} Financial recovery is the most difficult in financial management. Therefore, this is important to study how a company in financially-distress can survive to rise up to a healthy financial condition (emergence financial distress. The research consists of 200 non financial companies which are listed on Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX for the period of 2004-2008. This study focuses on management of working capital. How a company fulfill its current liabilities, and its sources in current assets which shall be cashed at the short term period. By using Multinomial logit, we analyzed the probability a financially-distress company rise up to emergence financial distress or stay of the status of financial distress and what are financial indicators affect to a company in the status of Non Financial Distress tend to Financial Distress. Thus, the important thing is to determine financial ratios which can be an indicator to determine of emergence financial distress. We find a positive relationship between Profit, efficiency and emergence financial distress and a negative relationship between leverage and emergence financial distress.   Keywords: Emergence Financial Distress, Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX, Multinomial Logit JEL Classification Codes: G 3

  4. Intercity Travel Demand Analysis Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ming Lu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available It is well known that intercity travel is an important component of travel demand which belongs to short distance corridor travel. The conventional four-step method is no longer suitable for short distance corridor travel demand analysis for the time spent on urban traffic has a great impact on traveler's main mode choice. To solve this problem, the author studied the existing intercity travel demand analysis model, then improved it based on the study, and finally established a combined model of main mode choice and access mode choice. At last, an integrated multilevel nested logit model structure system was built. The model system includes trip generation, destination choice, and mode-route choice based on multinomial logit model, and it achieved linkage and feedback of each part through logsum variable. This model was applied in Shenzhen intercity railway passenger demand forecast in 2010 as a case study. As a result, the forecast results were consistent with the actuality. The model's correctness and feasibility were verified.

  5. Valuing attributes of enhanced traffic information: an experience in Kolkata

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Basu

    2007-10-01

    Full Text Available Most of the traffic information considers a single item like travel time or delay. In the present work, enhanced traffic information displaying instantaneous travel time and its variation from the previous interval to the present, is considered. An initial investigation is made on the effectiveness of such traffic information on route choice behavior of trip makers by valuation of attributes of the traffic information. Taking a case study of two urban corridors in the Kolkata metro city, India, the valuation is done separately for private car and taxi trip makers. The stated preference (choice based data collected from trip makers are analyzed using both multinomial logit (MNL and mixed logit (ML modeling techniques. Assuming sparsely used constrained triangular distribution of random parameters, two different types of ML model are developed: one with independent choice sets and the other one by accounting heterogeneity around the mean of random parameter(s. Both family income and trip purpose are found to decompose heterogeneity around the mean estimate(s. The values of travel time and their variation presented in the paper encourage further investigation on such type of traffic information for management of congestion on alternative urban corridors both spatially and temporally.

  6. Valuing energy-saving measures in residential buildings. A choice experiment study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kwak, So-Yoon; Kwak, Seung-Jun [Department of Economics, Korea University, 5-1 Anam-Dong, Seoul 136-701 (Korea); Yoo, Seung-Hoon [Department of International Area Studies, Hoseo University, 268 Anseo-Dong, Cheonan, Chungnam 330-713 (Korea)

    2010-01-15

    Air-conditioning and heating energy-saving measures can cut back the usage of energy. This paper attempts to apply a choice experiment in evaluating the consumer's willingness to pay (WTP) for air-conditioning and heating energy-saving measures in Korea's residential buildings. We consider the trade-offs between price and three attributes of energy-saving (window, facade, and ventilation) for selecting a preferred alternative and derive the marginal WTP (MWTP) estimate for each attribute. We also try to test irrelevant alternatives property for the estimation model holds and compare the estimation results of the multinomial logit (MNL) and the nested logit (NL) models. The NL model outperforms the MNL model. The NL model show that MWTPs for increasing the number of glasses and their variety, for increasing the thickness of facade for 1 mm, and for establishing a ventilation system are KRW 17,392 (USD 18.2), 1,112 (1.2), and 11,827 (12.4), respectively. Overall, the potential consumers have significant amount of WTP. (author)

  7. An integrated model to simulate sown area changes for major crops at a global scale

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SHIBASAKI; Ryosuke

    2008-01-01

    Dynamics of land use systems have attracted much attention from scientists around the world due to their ecological and socio-economic implications. An integrated model to dynamically simulate future changes in sown areas of four major crops (rice, maize, wheat and soybean) on a global scale is pre- sented. To do so, a crop choice model was developed on the basis of Multinomial Logit (Logit) model to model land users’ decisions on crop choices among a set of available alternatives with using a crop utility function. A GIS-based Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model was adopted to simulate the crop yields under a given geophysical environment and farming management conditions, while the International Food Policy and Agricultural Simulation (IFPSIM) model was utilized to estimate crop price in the international market. The crop choice model was linked with the GIS-based EPIC model and the IFPSIM model through data exchange. This integrated model was then validated against the FAO statistical data in 2001-2003 and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) global land cover product in 2001. Both validation approaches indicated reliability of the model for ad- dressing the dynamics in agricultural land use and its capability for long-term scenario analysis. Finally, the model application was designed to run over a time period of 30 a, taking the year 2000 as baseline. The model outcomes can help understand and explain the causes, locations and consequences of land use changes, and provide support for land use planning and policy making.

  8. EFFECT OF WAGES ON MULTIPLE JOB HOLDING DECISIONS IN INDONESIA: EVIDENCE FROM THE INDONESIAN FAMILY LIFE SURVEY (IFLS DATA OF 2007 AND 2014

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Niken Dwi Wijayanti

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Multiple job holding - i.e., a phenomenon in which workers have more than one job has become a trend in developed countries and is beginning to occur in developing countries, such as Indonesia. Existing studies provide the evidence that wages are a significant and consistent criterion to determine multiple job decisions. Wage increases in the primary job will decrease the incentive to have a second job as the reservation wage increases. However, we do not find any study which links the current multiple job decision with the past multiple job status. In this study, we use data from the Indonesian Family Life Survey (IFLS in 2007 and 2014 to investigate whether or not a wage increase in the primary job reduces the incentive to have a second job in 2014, controlling for the multiple job status in 2007. Using logit and multinomial logit estimations, we find that the wage increase in the primary job decreases the probability of having a second job in 2014.

  9. ADOPT: A Historically Validated Light Duty Vehicle Consumer Choice Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brooker, A.; Gonder, J.; Lopp, S.; Ward, J.

    2015-05-04

    The Automotive Deployment Option Projection Tool (ADOPT) is a light-duty vehicle consumer choice and stock model supported by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Vehicle Technologies Office. It estimates technology improvement impacts on U.S. light-duty vehicles sales, petroleum use, and greenhouse gas emissions. ADOPT uses techniques from the multinomial logit method and the mixed logit method estimate sales. Specifically, it estimates sales based on the weighted value of key attributes including vehicle price, fuel cost, acceleration, range and usable volume. The average importance of several attributes changes nonlinearly across its range and changes with income. For several attributes, a distribution of importance around the average value is used to represent consumer heterogeneity. The majority of existing vehicle makes, models, and trims are included to fully represent the market. The Corporate Average Fuel Economy regulations are enforced. The sales feed into the ADOPT stock model. It captures key aspects for summing petroleum use and greenhouse gas emissions This includes capturing the change in vehicle miles traveled by vehicle age, the creation of new model options based on the success of existing vehicles, new vehicle option introduction rate limits, and survival rates by vehicle age. ADOPT has been extensively validated with historical sales data. It matches in key dimensions including sales by fuel economy, acceleration, price, vehicle size class, and powertrain across multiple years. A graphical user interface provides easy and efficient use. It manages the inputs, simulation, and results.

  10. Treatment preferences of originator versus biosimilar drugs in Crohn's disease; discrete choice experiment among gastroenterologists.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baji, Petra; Gulácsi, László; Lovász, Barbara D; Golovics, Petra A; Brodszky, Valentin; Péntek, Márta; Rencz, Fanni; Lakatos, Péter L

    2016-01-01

    To explore preferences of gastroenterologists for biosimilar drugs in Crohn's disease. Discrete choice experiment was carried out involving 51 Hungarian gastroenterologists in May 2014. The following attributes were used to describe hypothetical choice sets: 1) type of the treatment (biosimilar/originator), 2) severity of disease, 3) availability of continuous medicine supply, 4) frequency of the efficacy check-ups. Multinomial logit model was used to differentiate between three attitude types: 1) always opting for the originator, 2) willing to consider biosimilar for biological-naïve patients only, 3) willing to consider biosimilar treatment for both types of patients. Conditional logit model was used to estimate the probabilities of choosing a given profile. Men, senior consultants, working in inflammatory bowel disease center and treating more patients were more likely willing to consider biosimilar for biological-naïve patients only. Treatment type (originator/biosimilar) was the most important determinant of choice for patients already treated with biologicals, and the availability of continuous medicine supply in case of biological-naïve patients. The probabilities of choosing the biosimilar with all the benefits offered over the originator under current reimbursement conditions are 89% versus 11% for new patients, and 44% versus 56% for patients already treated with biological. For gastroenterologist, the continuous medical supply would be one of the major benefits of biosimilars. However, benefits offered in the scenarios do not compensate for the change from the originator to the biosimilar treatment of patients already treated with biologicals.

  11. LA INFLUENCIA DE JUGAR LA LIGA DE CAMPEONES EN EL RESULTADO DE LOS EQUIPOS EN LA LIGA ESPAÑOLA DE FÚTBOL. LA IMPORTANCIA DE LA DENSIDAD COMPETITIVA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Lago Peñas

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available

     

    RESUMEN

    Los objetivos de este trabajo son dos. En primer lugar estudiar los efectos que tiene disputar un partido de la Liga de Campeones sobre el resultado alcanzado por los equipos en la Liga Española en esa misma semana. En segundo lugar, verificar si la probabilidad de ganar frente a perder en la Liga Española es mayor o no para los equipos con experiencia en la Liga de Campeones frente a aquellos otros conjuntos que disputan por primera vez esta competición. La muestra consiste en 184 partidos de la Liga Española de Fútbol jugados por los equipos que se encontraban simultáneamente disputando la primera fase de la Liga de Campeones en las temporadas 2003-2004, 2004-2005 y 2005-2006. Los datos utilizados en la investigación han sido tomados de la página oficial de la Liga de Campeones, de la Liga Española y suministrados por GECA SPORT.

    De acuerdo con los resultados de la estimación de un modelo logit multinomial, disputar un partido de la Liga de Campeones durante la semana de competición no reduce la probabilidad de los equipos de ganar frente a perder en el partido de la Liga Nacional. Incluso tiene un efecto positivo para los equipos debutantes en la competición europea: cuando juegan durante la semana tienen más probabilidades de ganar en la Liga Nacional (p<0,01.

    Palabras clave: resultado, fútbol, Liga de Campeones. logit multinomial, Liga Española

     

    ABSTRACT

    This paper has two goals. First, studying the impact of playing in the Champions League on the results in the Spanish League. Second, analyzing whether being a beginner team in the

  12. ¿Permitían los estados financieros predecir los resultados de los tests de estrés de la banca española? Una aplicación del modelo logit

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristina Gutiérrez López

    2014-01-01

    La principal aportación de este trabajo es revisar y contrastar los resultados de las pruebas de resistencia aplicadas a la banca española, identificando ratios contables que prácticamente permiten llegar a sus mismas conclusiones.

  13. Factores determinantes de la utilización de instrumentos públicos para la gestión del riesgo en la industria vitivinícola chilena: un modelo logit binomial

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Germán Lobos

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available The main objective of this research was to identify the determining factors of the use of public instruments to manage risk in the Chilean wine industry. A binomial logistic regression model was proposed. Based on a survey of 104 viticulture and winemaking companies, a database was constructed between January and October 2007. The model was fitted using maximum likelihood estimation. The variables that turned out to be statistically significant were: risk of the wine price, availability of external consultancy and number of permanent workers. From the Public Management point of view, the main conclusion suggests that the use of public instruments could be increased if viticulturists and winemakers had more external counseling.

  14. Values for the ICECAP-Supportive Care Measure (ICECAP-SCM) for use in economic evaluation at end of life.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huynh, Elisabeth; Coast, Joanna; Rose, John; Kinghorn, Philip; Flynn, Terry

    2017-09-01

    End of life care may have elements of value that go beyond health. A generic measure of the benefits of end of life care could be helpful to decision makers. Such a measure, based on the capability approach, has recently been developed: the ICECAP Supportive Care Measure. This paper reports the first valuation exercise for that measure, with data from 6020 individuals collected from an on-line general population panel during June 2013. Individuals were asked to complete a stated choice experiment that combined best-worst scaling and a standard discrete choice experiment. Analysis of the best-worst data used limited dependent variable models within the random utility framework including the multinomial logit models and latent class choice model analysis. Exploratory steps were taken to determine the similarity of the best-worst and DCE data before formal testing and pooling of the two data sources. Combined data were analysed in a heteroscedastic conditional logit model adjusting for continuous scale. Two sets of tariffs were generated, one from the best-worst data capturing only main effects, and a second from the pooled data allowing for two-way interactions. Either tariff could be used in economic evaluation of interventions at the end of life, although there are advantages and disadvantages with each. This extensive valuation exercise for the ICECAP Supportive Care Measure, with a large number of members of the general public, could be complemented in the future with best-worst scaling studies amongst those experiencing the end of life. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. An integrated model to simulate sown area changes for major crops at a global scale

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WU WenBin; YANG Peng; MENG ChaoYing; SHIBASAKI Ryosuke; ZHOU QingBo; TANG HuaJun; SHI Yun

    2008-01-01

    Dynamics of land use systems have attracted much attention from scientists around the world due to their ecological and socio-economic implications. An integrated model to dynamically simulate future changes in sown areas of four major crops (rice, maize, wheat and soybean) on a global scale is presented. To do so, a crop choice model was developed on the basis of Multinomial Logit (Logit) model to model land users' decisions on crop choices among a set of available alternatives with using a crop utility function. A GIS-based Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model was adopted to simulate the crop yields under a given geophysical environment and farming management conditions,while the International Food Policy and Agricultural Simulation (IFPSIM) model was utilized to estimate crop price in the international market. The crop choice model was linked with the GIS-based EPIC model and the IFPSIM model through data exchange. This integrated model was then validated against the FAO statistical data in 2001-2003 and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)global land cover product in 2001. Both validation approaches indicated reliability of the model for addressing the dynamics in agricultural land use and its capability for long-term scenario analysis. Finally,the model application was designed to run over a time period of 30 a, taking the year 2000 as baseline.The model outcomes can help understand and explain the causes, locations and consequences of land use changes, and provide support for land use planning and policy making.

  16. Discrete choice experiments in pharmacy: a review of the literature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naik-Panvelkar, Pradnya; Armour, Carol; Saini, Bandana

    2013-02-01

    Discrete choice experiments (DCEs) have been widely used to elicit patient preferences for various healthcare services and interventions. The aim of our study was to conduct an in-depth scoping review of the literature and provide a current overview of the progressive application of DCEs within the field of pharmacy. Electronic databases (MEDLINE, EMBASE, SCOPUS, ECONLIT) were searched (January 1990-August 2011) to identify published English language studies using DCEs within the pharmacy context. Data were abstracted with respect to DCE methodology and application to pharmacy. Our search identified 12 studies. The DCE methodology was utilised to elicit preferences for different aspects of pharmacy products, therapy or services. Preferences were elicited from either patients or pharmacists, with just two studies incorporating the views of both. Most reviewed studies examined preferences for process-related or provider-related aspects with a lesser focus on health outcomes. Monetary attributes were considered to be important by most patients and pharmacists in the studies reviewed. Logit, probit or multinomial logit models were most commonly employed for estimation. Our study showed that the pharmacy profession has adopted the DCE methodology consistent with the general health DCEs although the number of studies is quite limited. Future studies need to examine preferences of both patients and providers for particular products or disease-state management services. Incorporation of health outcome attributes in the design, testing for external validity and the incorporation of DCE results in economic evaluation framework to inform pharmacy policy remain important areas for future research. © 2012 The Authors. IJPP © 2012 Royal Pharmaceutical Society.

  17. Age norms, family relationships, and home leaving in Italy

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    Marco Tosi

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Previous research has shown that social norms have an influence on young adults' life course transitions. However, few studies have explicitly and directly tested the idea that perceived age norms affect the decision to leave the parental home. Objective: I ask whether normative factors are correlated with the decision to leave the family nest in Italy, and whether this association depends on a system of perceived costs and benefits, parental approval of their children's decisions, and the quality of parent-child relationships. Methods: Using the panel component of Family and Social Subjects data (2003 and 2007, logit and multinomial logit models were adopted to analyze the connection between perceived norms and behavior. The Karlson, Holm, and Breen (2012 decomposition method was used to test the relevance of confounding and mediating factors. Results: The findings show that young adults who consider themselves as too young to leave the parental home are less likely to move out of the family nest in order to marry. The interaction between a 'stay' norm, the perceived benefits of leaving home, and parental approval significantly affects the transition to independence. Contribution: In Italy, decision-making about leaving home and getting married is shaped by age norms concerning extended coresidence. Young adults tend to comply with age norms when they perceive that their decision implies benefits and/or a violation will lead to penalties. Perceived parental disapproval reduces the influence of normative factors on individual actual behaviors, which suggests that young adults adhere to norms that are supported by parents.

  18. Determinants of Health Insurance Coverage among People Aged 45 and over in China: Who Buys Public, Private and Multiple Insurance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Yinzi; Hou, Zhiyuan; Zhang, Donglan

    2016-01-01

    Background China is reforming and restructuring its health insurance system to achieve the goal of universal coverage. This study aims to understand the determinants of public, private and multiple insurance coverage among people of retirement-age in China. Methods We used data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Survey 2011 and 2013, a nationally representative survey of Chinese people aged 45 and over. Multinomial logit regression was performed to identify the determinants of public, private and multiple health insurance coverage. We also conducted logit regression to examine the association between public insurance coverage and demand for private insurance. Results In 2013, 94.5% of this population had at least one type of public insurance, and 12.2% purchased private insurance. In general, we found that rural residents were less likely to be uninsured (Relative Risk Ratio (RRR) = 0.40, 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 0.34–0.47) and were less likely to buy private insurance (RRR = 0.22, 95% CI: 0.16–0.31). But rural-to-urban migrants were more likely to be uninsured (RRR = 1.39, 95% CI: 1.24–1.57). Public health insurance coverage may crowd out private insurance market (Odds Ratio = 0.55, 95% CI: 0.48–0.63), particularly among enrollees of Urban Resident Basic Medical Insurance. There exists a huge socioeconomic disparity in both public and private insurance coverage. Conclusion The migrants, the poor and the vulnerable remained in the edge of the system. The growing private insurance market did not provide sufficient financial protection and did not cover the people with the greatest need. To achieve universal coverage and reduce socioeconomic disparity, China should integrate the urban and rural public insurance schemes across regions and remove the barriers for the middle-income and low-income to access private insurance. PMID:27564320

  19. Associations of financial stressors and physical intimate partner violence perpetration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwab-Reese, Laura M; Peek-Asa, Corinne; Parker, Edith

    2016-12-01

    Contextual factors, such as exposure to stressors, may be antecedents to IPV perpetration. These contextual factors may be amenable to modification through intervention and prevention. However, few studies have examined specific contextual factors. To begin to address this gap, we examined the associations between financial stressors and three types of physical IPV perpetration. This analysis used data from Wave IV of The National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health. We used logistic regression to examine the associations of financial stressors and each type of IPV (minor, severe, causing injury), and multinomial logit regression to examine the associations of financial stressors and patterns of co-occurring types of IPV perpetration (only minor; only severe; minor and severe; minor, severe, and causing injury; compared with no perpetration). Fewer men perpetrated threats/minor physical IPV (6.7 %) or severe physical IPV (3.4 %) compared with women (11.4 % and 8.8 %, respectively). However, among physical IPV perpetrators, a higher percentage of men (32.0 %) than women (21.0 %) reported their partner was injured as a result of the IPV. In logistic regression models of each type of IPV perpetration, both the number of stressors experienced and several types of financial stressors were associated with perpetrating each type of IPV. Utilities nonpayment, housing nonpayment, food insecurity, and no phone service were associated with increased odds of perpetrating each form of IPV in adjusted analysis. Eviction was associated with perpetrating severe physical IPV but not threats/minor IPV or IPV causing injury. In multinomial logit regression comparing patterns of IPV perpetration to perpetrating no physical IPV, the relationships of financial stressors were less consistent. Food insecurity was associated with perpetrating only minor physical IPV. Comparatively, overall number of financial stressors and four types of financial stressors (utilities

  20. Como aposentadorias e pensões afetam a educação e o trabalho de jovens do domicílio How pensions affect the schooling and labor of the household's youngsters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rodolfo Hoffmann

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available A questão central é saber como o valor da parcela do rendimento domiciliar formada por aposentadorias e pensões afeta a probabilidade de jovens (15 a 21 anos de idade desse domicílio não estarem estudando nem participando do mercado de trabalho. Combinando as possibilidades de estar ou não freqüentando escola e estar ou não no mercado de trabalho, há 4 situações, cujas probabilidades foram analisadas por meio de um lógite multinomial. Usando dados da PNAD de 2006 mostra-se que o rendimento de aposentadorias e pensões contribui claramente para aumentar a probabilidade de o jovem estudar e não participar do mercado de trabalho. Não há base para afirmar que aposentadorias e pensões contribuem para aumentar a probabilidade de que os jovens do domicílio não estudem nem participem do mercado de trabalho.The central question of this paper is to determine whether the component of the household income constituted by pensions affects the probability of the youngsters (15 to 21 years old in the household being neither students nor labor suppliers. Combining the possibilities of attending or not attending school and participating or not in the labor market, there are 4 situations whose probabilities are analyzed using a multinomial logit model. Using data from the 2006 Brazilian National Household Sample Survey, it is shown that the income of pensioners contributes substantially to increase the probability of the household's youngsters being in school and not participating in the labor market. There is no evidence that pension incomes in a household increase the probability of their youngsters being simultaneously outside school and outside the labor market.

  1. The impact of government income transfers on the Brazilian job market

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    Emerson Marinho

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper intends to analyze the impact of transferences over the formal and informal labor supply from the family heads. For the analyze of the effects in scope of the entrance decisions in job market it was estimated a multinomial logit, while in the scope of the working time it was used a variation of the method of Durbin and McFadden (1984 for selection bias correction. It has verified that transferences have positive effect over the probabilities that the individual doesn't work and does informally work. However, this last one seems to be related to a substitution effect, once it has been observed a parallel negative effect over the probability to work on the formal sector. It has been obtained yet that the benefits negatively impacts on the offered hours by the family heads whether in the formal or non-formal sector, effect that has happened to be verified on the hours offering in formal sector of all individuals. On the other hand, as we consider the hours of working of those who are engaged in informal sector, it has obtained that income transferences perform not as a discourage issue but as a magnifier factor of worked hours.

  2. Farmer preference for improved corn seeds in Chiapas, Mexico: A choice experiment approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sánchez-Toledano, Blanca I.; Kallas, Zein; Gil-Roig, José M.

    2017-01-01

    Appropriate technologies must be developed for adoption of improved seeds based on the farmers’ preferences and needs. Our research identified the farmers’ willingness to pay (WTP) as a key determinant for selecting the improved varieties of maize seeds and landraces in Chiapas, Mexico. This work also analyzed the farmers’ observed heterogeneity on the basis of their socio-economic characteristics. Data were collected using a semi-structured questionnaire from 200 farmers. A proportional choice experiment approach was applied using a proportional choice variable, where farmers were asked to state the percentage of preference for different alternative varieties in a choice set. The generalized multinomial logit model in WTP-space approach was used. The results suggest that the improved seed varieties are preferred over the Creole alternatives, thereby ensuring higher yields, resistance to diseases, and larger ear size. For the preference heterogeneity analyses, a latent class model was applied. Three types of farmers were identified: innovators (60.5%), transition farmers (29.4%), and conservative farmers (10%). An understanding of farmers’ preferences is useful in designing agricultural policies and creati

  3. A dynamic analysis of motorcycle ownership and usage: a panel data modeling approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wen, Chieh-Hua; Chiou, Yu-Chiun; Huang, Wan-Ling

    2012-11-01

    This study aims to develop motorcycle ownership and usage models with consideration of the state dependence and heterogeneity effects based on a large-scale questionnaire panel survey on vehicle owners. To account for the independence among alternatives and heterogeneity among individuals, the modeling structure of motorcycle ownership adopts disaggregate choice models considering the multinomial, nested, and mixed logit formulations. Three types of panel data regression models--ordinary, fixed, and random effects--are developed and compared for motorcycle usage. The estimation results show that motorcycle ownership in the previous year does exercise a significantly positive effect on the number of motorcycles owned by households in the current year, suggesting that the state dependence effect does exist in motorcycle ownership decisions. In addition, the fixed effects model is the preferred specification for modeling motorcycle usage, indicating strong evidence for existence of heterogeneity. Among various management strategies evaluated under different scenarios, increasing gas prices and parking fees will lead to larger reductions in total kilometers traveled. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Farmer preference for improved corn seeds in Chiapas, Mexico: A choice experiment approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Blanca I. Sánchez-Toledano

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Appropriate technologies must be developed for adoption of improved seeds based on the farmers’ preferences and needs. Our research identified the farmers’ willingness to pay (WTP as a key determinant for selecting the improved varieties of maize seeds and landraces in Chiapas, Mexico. This work also analyzed the farmers’ observed heterogeneity on the basis of their socio-economic characteristics. Data were collected using a semi-structured questionnaire from 200 farmers. A proportional choice experiment approach was applied using a proportional choice variable, where farmers were asked to state the percentage of preference for different alternative varieties in a choice set. The generalized multinomial logit model in WTP-space approach was used. The results suggest that the improved seed varieties are preferred over the Creole alternatives, thereby ensuring higher yields, resistance to diseases, and larger ear size. For the preference heterogeneity analyses, a latent class model was applied. Three types of farmers were identified: innovators (60.5%, transition farmers (29.4%, and conservative farmers (10%. An understanding of farmers’ preferences is useful in designing agricultural policies and creating pricing and marketing strategies for the dissemination of quality seeds.

  5. A Bayesian network based framework for real-time crash prediction on the basic freeway segments of urban expressways.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hossain, Moinul; Muromachi, Yasunori

    2012-03-01

    The concept of measuring the crash risk for a very short time window in near future is gaining more practicality due to the recent advancements in the fields of information systems and traffic sensor technology. Although some real-time crash prediction models have already been proposed, they are still primitive in nature and require substantial improvements to be implemented in real-life. This manuscript investigates the major shortcomings of the existing models and offers solutions to overcome them with an improved framework and modeling method. It employs random multinomial logit model to identify the most important predictors as well as the most suitable detector locations to acquire data to build such a model. Afterwards, it applies Bayesian belief net (BBN) to build the real-time crash prediction model. The model has been constructed using high resolution detector data collected from Shibuya 3 and Shinjuku 4 expressways under the jurisdiction of Tokyo Metropolitan Expressway Company Limited, Japan. It has been specifically built for the basic freeway segments and it predicts the chance of formation of a hazardous traffic condition within the next 4-9 min for a particular 250 meter long road section. The performance evaluation results reflect that at an average threshold value the model is able to successful classify 66% of the future crashes with a false alarm rate less than 20%. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Household waste disposal in Mekelle city, Northern Ethiopia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tadesse, Tewodros; Ruijs, Arjan; Hagos, Fitsum

    2008-01-01

    In many cities of developing countries, such as Mekelle (Ethiopia), waste management is poor and solid wastes are dumped along roadsides and into open areas, endangering health and attracting vermin. The effects of demographic factors, economic and social status, waste and environmental attributes on household solid waste disposal are investigated using data from household survey. Household level data are then analyzed using multinomial logit estimation to determine the factors that affect household waste disposal decision making. Results show that demographic features such as age, education and household size have an insignificant impact over the choice of alternative waste disposal means, whereas the supply of waste facilities significantly affects waste disposal choice. Inadequate supply of waste containers and longer distance to these containers increase the probability of waste dumping in open areas and roadsides relative to the use of communal containers. Higher household income decreases the probability of using open areas and roadsides as waste destinations relative to communal containers. Measures to make the process of waste disposal less costly and ensuring well functioning institutional waste management would improve proper waste disposal

  7. Barriers to women's participation in inter-conceptional care: a cross-sectional analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hogan Vijaya K

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background We describe participation rates in a special interconceptional care program that addressed all commonly known barriers to care, and identify predictors of the observed levels of participation in this preventive care service. Methods A secondary analysis of data from women in the intervention arm of an interconceptional care clinical trial in Philadelphia (n = 442. Gelberg-Andersen Behavioral Model for Vulnerable Populations to Health Services (herein called Andersen model was used as a theoretical base. We used a multinomial logit model to analyze the factors influencing women's level of participation in this enhanced interconceptional care program. Results Although common barriers were addressed, there was variable participation in the interconceptional interventions. The Andersen model did not explain the variation in interconceptional care participation (Wald ch sq = 49, p = 0.45. Enabling factors (p = 0.058, older maternal age (p = 0.03 and smoking (p = were independently associated with participation. Conclusions Actively removing common barriers to care does not guarantee the long-term and consistent participation of vulnerable women in preventive care. There are unknown factors beyond known barriers that affect participation in interconceptional care. New paradigms are needed to identify the additional factors that serve as barriers to participation in preventive care for vulnerable women.

  8. Analyzing the severity of accidents on the German Autobahn.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manner, Hans; Wünsch-Ziegler, Laura

    2013-08-01

    We study the severity of accidents on the German Autobahn in the state of North Rhine-Westphalia using data for the years 2009 until 2011. We use a multinomial logit model to identify statistically relevant factors explaining the severity of the most severe injury, which is classified into the four classes fatal, severe injury, light injury and property damage. Furthermore, to account for unobserved heterogeneity we use a random parameter model. We study the effect of a number of factors including traffic information, road conditions, type of accidents, speed limits, presence of intelligent traffic control systems, age and gender of the driver and location of the accident. Our findings are in line with studies in different settings and indicate that accidents during daylight and at interchanges or construction sites are less severe in general. Accidents caused by the collision with roadside objects, involving pedestrians and motorcycles, or caused by bad sight conditions tend to be more severe. We discuss the measures of the 2011 German traffic safety programm in the light of our results. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Dynamic Competition and Cooperation of Road Infrastructure Investment of Multiple Tourism Destinations: A Case Study of Xidi and Hongcun World Cultural Heritage

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jun Li

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The transportation infrastructure always plays an important role in the development of the local tourism. A system dynamics method incorporated with a destination choice model is proposed in this paper to analyze the dynamic impacts of transportation infrastructure on the tourism development, where multiple tourism destinations share a common market. Tourists’ destination choice behaviors are characterized by a multinomial logit choice model based on the utility of destinations, which depends heavily on the accessibility of destinations that the local administration has strong willingness to improve. The system dynamics method is used to model dynamic interactions among destinations and to simulate the dynamic evolution of the competition on the tourism market. A case study of the World Cultural Heritage Sites, Xidi and Hongcun villages, shows the competition for road infrastructure investment can produce a win-win situation and bring the cooperation on investment due to the positive externality of transport infrastructure and two villages show a tendency to merge into one bigger destination. Finally, the tourism development strategies for two villages are discussed based on the scenario analysis.

  10. Holiday Destination Choice Behavior Analysis Based on AFC Data of Urban Rail Transit

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chang-jun Cai

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available For urban rail transit, the spatial distribution of passenger flow in holiday usually differs from weekdays. Holiday destination choice behavior analysis is the key to analyze passengers’ destination choice preference and then obtain the OD (origin-destination distribution of passenger flow. This paper aims to propose a holiday destination choice model based on AFC (automatic fare collection data of urban rail transit system, which is highly expected to provide theoretic support to holiday travel demand analysis for urban rail transit. First, based on Guangzhou Metro AFC data collected on New Year’s day, the characteristics of holiday destination choice behavior for urban rail transit passengers is analyzed. Second, holiday destination choice models based on MNL (Multinomial Logit structure are established for each New Year’s days respectively, which takes into account some novel explanatory variables (such as attractiveness of destination. Then, the proposed models are calibrated with AFC data from Guangzhou Metro using WESML (weighted exogenous sample maximum likelihood estimation and compared with the base models in which attractiveness of destination is not considered. The results show that the ρ2 values are improved by 0.060, 0.045, and 0.040 for January 1, January 2, and January 3, respectively, with the consideration of destination attractiveness.

  11. Modeling Types of Pedal Applications Using a Driving Simulator.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Yuqing; Boyle, Linda Ng; McGehee, Daniel; Roe, Cheryl A; Ebe, Kazutoshi; Foley, James

    2015-11-01

    The aim of this study was to examine variations in drivers' foot behavior and identify factors associated with pedal misapplications. Few studies have focused on the foot behavior while in the vehicle and the mishaps that a driver can encounter during a potentially hazardous situation. A driving simulation study was used to understand how drivers move their right foot toward the pedals. The study included data from 43 drivers as they responded to a series of rapid traffic signal phase changes. Pedal application types were classified as (a) direct hit, (b) hesitated, (c) corrected trajectory, and (d) pedal errors (incorrect trajectories, misses, slips, or pressed both pedals). A mixed-effects multinomial logit model was used to predict the likelihood of one of these pedal applications, and linear mixed models with repeated measures were used to examine the response time and pedal duration given the various experimental conditions (stimuli color and location). Younger drivers had higher probabilities of direct hits when compared to other age groups. Participants tended to have more pedal errors when responding to a red signal or when the signal appeared to be closer. Traffic signal phases and locations were associated with pedal response time and duration. The response time and pedal duration affected the likelihood of being in one of the four pedal application types. Findings from this study suggest that age-related and situational factors may play a role in pedal errors, and the stimuli locations could affect the type of pedal application. © 2015, Human Factors and Ergonomics Society.

  12. Economic and organizational determinants of HMO mergers and failures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feldman, R; Wholey, D; Christianson, J

    1996-01-01

    This study analyzed data from all operational health maintenance organizations (HMOs) in the United States from 1986 through 1993. Eighty HMOs disappeared through mergers and 149 failed over that period. We estimated a multinomial logit model to predict whether an HMO would merge and survive, merge and disappear, or fail, relative to the probability of no event. We found that enrollment and profitability play a critical role in explaining HMO mergers and failures: large and profitable HMOs were more likely to merge and survive, but less likely to merge and disappear or fail. These results explain why HMO merger and failure rates fell after 1988, as most surviving HMOs became larger and more profitable. Among several market-area variables in the model, state anti-takeover regulations had a negative impact on mergers. Mergers were more likely in markets with more competing HMOs, but the overall market penetration of HMOs had no effect on mergers. This result may have important implications for the current debate over the future of the competitive health care strategy. If public policy successfully stimulates the development of large numbers of new HMOs, another wave of mergers and failures is likely to occur. But it appears that growth in overall HMO penetration will not lead inevitably to increased market concentration.

  13. The economic valuation of environmental quality: A methodological study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sung Yucsheng.

    1991-01-01

    Conducted in the context of sportfishing, this study uses Michigan data to estimate fishing demand and resulting consumer surplus accruing from environmental-policy implementation. For the modeling of fish-species and site decisions, a nested multinomial logit model is employed. On a pre-determined choice occasion during which a trip of a specific duration will be taken, an angler is assumed first to make a fish-species decision, then choose a site. The seasonal-participation decision is modeled by a competing-risks stochastic renewal process, incorporating time-varying parameters to account for changes in site quality through time. Since the number of trips would most likely change after a potential site-quality improvement, the proposed seasonal compensating variation (CV) calculation takes into account (1) the CV associated with the trips that would have been taken before the quality improvement, and (2) the CV associated with the new trips. The approach proposed in this study is applied to two real world policy scenarios: The termination of the Ludington Pumped Storage plant operation, and the removal of PCB contamination in the Kalamazoo River. The compensating variation is derived for both applications

  14. Contratación indefinida y segregación ocupacional según nacionalidad: Andalucía frente al resto de España

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonio Caparrós Ruiz

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available Como resultado de las reformas laborales realizadas en España desde 1997, el conjunto de relaciones laborales indefinidas se puede fragmentar en tres grandes grupos: contratos indefinidos ordinarios, indefinidos bonificados procedentes de la transformación de contratos temporales e indefinidos iniciales bonificados. Los objetivos principales de este trabajo son, por un lado, analizar la incidencia relativa de los diversos tipos de contratación indefinida frente al empleo temporal tanto para la población inmigrante como para la nacional. Por otro lado, para arrojar evidencia adicional sobre la calidad de los empleos que ocupan respectivamente extranjeros y españoles, se contrasta para ambos grupos la existencia de segregación ocupacional. Para el primer fin, la metodología utilizada consiste en la estimación de modelos logit multinomial donde la variable dependiente muestra el tipo de contrato del trabajador. Con respecto al segundo, se obtienen índices de segregación ocupacional considerando también la modalidad contractual. Estos análisis se realizan separadamente para Andalucía y para el resto de España, distinguiendo a los trabajadores según su experiencia laboral con objeto de valorar el proceso de asimilación de la población inmigrante hacia la nativa. La información estadística utilizada para efectuar este trabajo proviene de la Muestra Continua de Vidas Laborales (MTAS, 2006.

  15. Investigating attitudes to hydrogen refuelling facilities and the social cost to local residents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    O'Garra, Tanya; Mourato, Susana; Pearson, Peter

    2008-01-01

    Vehicles fuelled by hydrogen (H 2 ) have attracted increasing attention because of their potentially enhanced environmental profiles. Their penetration into the vehicle stock will be influenced by the spread of refuelling facilities. This study investigates local attitudes towards the proposed installation of H 2 storage facilities at existing refuelling stations throughout London. Using multinomial logit analysis, we identify the determinants of attitudes. Results suggest that residents living very close to a proposed H 2 facility are less likely to be opposed than residents living 200-500 m away. Opposition appears to be determined by a lack of trust in safety regulations, non-environmental attitudes, and concerns about the existing local refuelling station. The social cost to local residents of a local H 2 storage facility was estimated using a method developed by Atkinson et al. [2004. 'Amenity' or 'eyesore'? Negative willingness to pay for options to replace electricity transmission towers. Applied Economics Letters 11(4), 203-208], which elicits the amount of time respondents are willing to commit to oppose a new facility development. Using the leisure rate of time, the social cost is estimated at just under Pounds 14 per local opposed resident. Add to this the WTP to support opposition efforts by a local group, and the value comes to just under Pounds 25 per opposed resident

  16. Can a publicly funded home care system successfully allocate service based on perceived need rather than socioeconomic status? A Canadian experience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laporte, Audrey; Croxford, Ruth; Coyte, Peter C

    2007-03-01

    The present quantitative study evaluates the degree to which socioeconomic status (SES), as opposed to perceived need, determines utilisation of publicly funded home care in Ontario, Canada. The Registered Persons Data Base of the Ontario Health Insurance Plan was used to identify the age, sex and place of residence for all Ontarians who had coverage for the complete calendar year 1998. Utilisation was characterised in two dimensions: (1) propensity - the probability that an individual received service, which was estimated using a multinomial logit equation; and (2) intensity - the amount of service received, conditional on receipt. Short- and long-term service intensity were modelled separately using ordinary least squares regression. Age, sex and co-morbidity were the best predictors (P funded home care as well as how much care was received, with sicker individuals having increased utilisation. The propensity and intensity of service receipt increased with lower SES (P funded home care service was primarily based on perceived need rather than ability to pay, barriers to utilisation for those from areas with a high proportion of recent immigrants were identified. Future research is needed to assess whether the current mix and level of publicly funded resources are indeed sufficient to offset the added costs associated with the provision of high-quality home care.

  17. Associations between birth health, maternal employment, and child care arrangement among a community sample of mothers with young children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiao, Chi; Chyu, Laura; Ksobiech, Kate

    2014-01-01

    Although a large body of literature exists on how different types of child care arrangements affect a child's subsequent health and sociocognitive development, little is known about the relationship between birth health and subsequent decisions regarding type of nonparental child care as well as how this relationship might be influenced by maternal employment. This study used data from the Los Angeles Families and Neighborhoods Survey (L.A.FANS). Mothers of 864 children (ages 0-5) provided information regarding birth weight, maternal evaluation of a child's birth health, child's current health, maternal employment, type of child care arrangement chosen, and a variety of socioeconomic variables. Child care options included parental care, relative care, nonrelative care, and daycare center. Multivariate analyses found that birth weight and subjective rating of birth health had similar effects on child care arrangement. After controlling for a child's age and current health condition, multinomial logit analyses found that mothers with children with poorer birth health are more likely to use nonrelative and daycare centers than parental care when compared to mothers with children with better birth health. The magnitude of these relationships diminished when adjusting for maternal employment. Working mothers were significantly more likely to use nonparental child care than nonemployed mothers. Results suggest that a child's health early in life is significantly but indirectly related to subsequent decisions regarding child care arrangements, and this association is influenced by maternal employment. Development of social policy aimed at improving child care service should take maternal and family backgrounds into consideration.

  18. Market Participation and Agro-Biodiversity Loss: The Case of Native Chili Varieties in the Amazon Rainforest of Peru

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jaqueline Garcia-Yi

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Policies for promoting the in situ conservation of underutilized crop varieties include the provision of economic incentives to farmers for their market commercialization. Nevertheless, market participation could also have the counter-effect of favoring the cultivation of uniform commercial crop varieties and inducing the erosion of crop genetic diversity. The objective of this research was to identify the determinants of the in situ conservation of native chili varieties, including market participation. To this end, 128 farmers were surveyed in the Amazon rainforest region of Ucayali in Peru. The data were analyzed using probit, multinomial logit and truncated Poisson models with covariance matrix correction for cluster errors by rural community. Results suggest that participation in commercial agriculture statistically significantly increases the in situ conservation of native chili varieties; only when farmers sell their products to local retailers, but not when they supply wholesalers. In particular, this result implies that policies designed to encourage specific forms of market participation could have a positive effect on farmers’ economic well-being and simultaneously could help to achieve crop genetic diversity conservation goals.

  19. Rural livestock asset portfolio in northern Ethiopia: a microeconomic analysis of choice and accumulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tegebu, Fredu Nega; Mathijs, Erik; Deckers, Jozef; Haile, Mitiku; Nyssen, Jan; Tollens, Eric

    2012-01-01

    Livestock fulfill different functions. Depending on their livelihood strategies, households differ in their choice of what type of animal to keep and on accumulation of the chosen animal overtime. Using a panel data of 385 rural households in a mixed farming system in northern Ethiopia, this paper investigates the dynamic behavior of rural households' livestock holding to identify determinants of choice and accumulation of livestock overtime. Choice is analyzed for a principal animal, the animal that constituted the largest value of livestock assets a household possessed, using a multinomial logit model. Results indicate that rural households differ in their choice of what type of animal to keep. Agro-climatic conditions, sex and age of household head, presence of an adult male member in a household, and liquidity are the major factors that influence the type of principal animal households keep. Conditional on the principal animal selected, we analyzed the factors that determine the accumulation of the chosen animals by correcting for selection bias. Area of land cultivated is the most significant factor that explains the number of animals households keep. Other factors include sex of household head, diversification into nonfarm self-employment, and shocks.

  20. Determinants of Organic Products Consumption

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    Matheus Wemerson Gomes Pereira

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available The increased environmental awareness and the growing desire for safer foods to health made the organic products category one of the most growing in the food sector. Thus, this study aimed to identify the most significant socioeconomic variables that influence the frequency of organic products consumption, and for that, it was based on a quantitative-descriptive study with a probability sample of 400 individuals, residing of the urban area of Campo Grande/MS, Brazil, responsible, alone or not, for food purchasing in family. As a tool for data collection, was used a structured questionnaire developed from socioeconomic variables and frequency of consumption of organic products. For the data analysis was performed statistical/econometric tests with the STATA 11.0 statistical software, using Multinomial Logit model (MNL, addition to verification of the explanatory variables effect on the probability of the consumption frequency levels of organic products through the Relative Risk Ratio (RRR, and was analyzed the Marginal Effect (ME exercised by the explanatory variables in each frequency level of organic products consumption. The results showed that the explanatory variables gender, education and economic class were statistically significant in the probability of an individual belong to some of the levels of consumption (rare, occasional and frequent over never having consumed organic products, being higher frequency of consumption when the consumer is female, have higher education or is of higher economic class.

  1. Patients' value of asthma services in Australian pharmacies: the way ahead for asthma care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naik-Panvelkar, Pradnya; Armour, Carol; Rose, John; Saini, Bandana

    2012-04-01

    Long-term sustainability of health services requires an understanding of patients' values and preferences. The aim of this study was to evaluate patients' preferences as well as their willingness-to-pay (WTP) for a community pharmacy-delivered specialized asthma service using a discrete choice experiment (DCE). Patients with asthma in New South Wales, Australia, who had recently experienced a specialized asthma management service at their pharmacy were mailed DCE questionnaires. Patients were asked to choose between two hypothetical service models with varying attributes. Multinomial logit models estimated patients' marginal WTP. The study had a response rate of 47%. Patients greatly valued various aspects of the pharmacy-based specialized service and had marginal WTP values of AUD$18.00 for a private area, AUD$44.50 for lung function testing, AUD$9.18 for appointments with pharmacists, and AUD$22.80 for provision of comprehensive advice on asthma and its medications. The marginal WTP for the overall service was AUD$94.86. The findings of the study indicate that patients greatly value and are willing to pay for asthma services in pharmacies. The study results will help pharmacists and policy advisors in the development of individualized asthma services that patients will use, are willing to pay for, and thus are economically viable in the future.

  2. Transitions between states of labor-force participation among older Israelis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Achdut, Leah; Tur-Sinai, Aviad; Troitsky, Rita

    2015-03-01

    The study examines the labor-force behavior of Israelis at older ages, focusing on the determinants of the transitions between states of labor-force participation between 2005 and 2010. The study uses panel data from the first two waves of the SHARE-Israel longitudinal survey. A multinomial logit model is used to examine the impact of sociodemographic characteristics, health state, and economic resources on labor-force transitions of people aged 50-67. The results emphasize the role of age and poor health in "pushing" older people out of the labor force or "keeping" them there. Spouse's participation is found to encourage individuals to leave the labor force or to refrain from joining it. However, living with a participating spouse is negatively associated with staying out of the labor force, consistent with the dominance of the complementarity of leisure effect found in the literature. Wealth as an economic resource available to individuals for retirement is also found to encourage individuals to leave the labor force or to refrain from joining it.

  3. Disentangling WTP per QALY data: different analytical approaches, different answers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gyrd-Hansen, Dorte; Kjaer, Trine

    2012-03-01

    A large random sample of the Danish general population was asked to value health improvements by way of both the time trade-off elicitation technique and willingness-to-pay (WTP) using contingent valuation methods. The data demonstrate a high degree of heterogeneity across respondents in their relative valuations on the two scales. This has implications for data analysis. We show that the estimates of WTP per QALY are highly sensitive to the analytical strategy. For both open-ended and dichotomous choice data we demonstrate that choice of aggregated approach (ratios of means) or disaggregated approach (means of ratios) affects estimates markedly as does the interpretation of the constant term (which allows for disproportionality across the two scales) in the regression analyses. We propose that future research should focus on why some respondents are unwilling to trade on the time trade-off scale, on how to interpret the constant value in the regression analyses, and on how best to capture the heterogeneity in preference structures when applying mixed multinomial logit. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  4. Information inefficiency and willingness-to-pay for energy-efficient technology: A stated preference approach for China Energy Label

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhou, Hui; Bukenya, James O.

    2016-01-01

    The paper examines the extent to which consumers' willingness-to-pay for energy-efficient room air conditioners may be altered by correcting the information inefficiency on the China Energy Label. The data are collected from a discrete choice experiment with two alternatives (variable-speed and constant-speed room air conditioners) characterized by attributes of brand, purchase price and energy grade. Three versions of the questionnaires with choice sets differing only in energy consumption indicators were distributed randomly to 1602 potential consumers in Nanjing, China and a sample of 1569 was obtained after dropping missing data. The analysis with multinomial and mixed logit models reveal that the price premium that consumers are willing to pay for a variable-speed room AC over a constant-speed room AC increases significantly when energy consumption information becomes comparable and additional energy-related information is provided. Furthermore, the impact of information on WTP varies under different energy-saving scenarios. It is suggested that China Energy Label should correct information inefficiency by adopting same energy indicators for room ACs with different technologies and providing energy consumption information based on different climate zones. - Highlights: • Choice experiments were carried out to examine the effect of information on WTP. • WTP for energy efficient technology increases if information is comparable. • WTP for energy efficient technology increases if more information is provided. • The impact of information on WTP is significant when energy saving is considerable. • Some demographics influence people's WTP.

  5. Institutional Analysis of Bounded Rationality of the Contemporary Russians

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivan V. Rozmainsky

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The paper argues that behavior of present-day Russians is inconsistent with standard Neoclassical economics and can be better explained by the synthesis of various branches of Institutionalism and Post Keynesianism. Authors try to show that the present-day Russians are characterized by bounded rationality when they invest in health and financial assets, by fits and starts spend their incomes and cannot predict future levels of these incomes. Sometimes such bounded rationality manifests itself as investor myopia – a phenomenon that describes a situation when people exclude future variables from consideration starting from some threshold point of time. Investor myopia can lead to negative investment in health via smoking and heavy drinking, and also generate non-rational saving behavior. Furthermore, the contemporary Russians behave in the opportunistic manner. In particular, in the course of important examination writing the majority of people prefer to cheat off. Finally, the social pressure modifies the consumptive choice of the present-day Russians; in other words, this choice is not intrinsic. These statements are verified on the base of opinion poll findings by authors in 2016 and 2017. Sample included 521 persons, mainly young people. These data are analyzed by means of econometric – binomial and multinomial logit-models. The results of these studies show that the contemporary Russians are really characterized by bounded rather than perfect rationality. One of the conclusions is that fee-paying educated students are significantly less rational in their saving choice.

  6. Locations that Support Social Activity Participation of the Aging Population

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    Pauline van den Berg

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Social activities are an important aspect of health and quality of life of the aging population. They are key elements in the prevention of loneliness. In order to create living environments that stimulate older adults to engage in social activities, more insight is needed in the social activity patterns of the aging population. This study therefore analyzes the heterogeneity in older adults’ preferences for different social activity location types and the relationship between these preferences and personal and mobility characteristics. This is done using a latent class multinomial logit model based on two-day diary data collected in 2014 in Noord-Limburg in the Netherlands among 213 respondents aged 65 or over. The results show that three latent classes can be identified among the respondents who recorded social activities in the diary: a group that mainly socializes at home, a group that mainly socializes at a community center and a group that is more likely to socialize at public ‘third’ places. The respondents who did not record any interactions during the two days, are considered as a separate segment. Relationships between segment membership and personal and mobility characteristics were tested using cross-tabulations with chi-square tests and analyses of variance. The results suggest that both personal and mobility characteristics play an important role in social activity patterns of older adults.

  7. The morality of attitudes toward nanotechnology: about God, techno-scientific progress, and interfering with nature

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vandermoere, Frederic; Blanchemanche, Sandrine; Bieberstein, Andrea; Marette, Stephan; Roosen, Jutta

    2010-01-01

    Using survey data, we examine public attitudes toward and awareness of nanotechnology in Germany (N = 750). First, it is shown that a majority of the people are still not familiar with nanotechnology. In addition, diffusion of information about nanotechnology thus far mostly seems to reach men and people with a relative higher educational background. Also, pro-science and technology views are positively related with nanotech familiarity. Results further show that a majority of the people have an indifferent, ambiguous, or non-attitude toward nanotechnology. Multinomial logit analyses further reveal that nanotech familiarity is positively related with people's attitudes. In addition, it is shown that traditional religiosity is unrelated to attitudes and that individual religiosity is weakly related to nanotechnology attitudes. However, moral covariates other than religiosity seem of major importance. In particular, our results show that more negative views on technological and scientific progress as well as more holistic views about the relation between people and the environment increase the likelihood of having a negative attitude toward nanotechnology.

  8. What factors influence choice of waste management practice? Evidence from rice straw management in the Philippines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Launio, Cheryll C; Asis, Constancio A; Manalili, Rowena G; Javier, Evelyn F; Belizario, Annabelle F

    2014-02-01

    This study applied a multinomial logit model to understand why farmers choose to burn, incorporate or remove rice straw in the field. Four hundred randomly selected farmers were interviewed in four major rice-producing provinces covering the 2009 wet and 2010 dry seasons. Results of the model with burning as the baseline category indicate farm type, location dummies, number of household members with older than 13 years, cow ownership and distance from farm to house as significant variables influencing farmers' choice of straw incorporation or removal over burning. Significant perception variables are the negative impacts of open-field burning, awareness of environmental regulations and attitude towards incentives. Other factors significantly influencing the decision to incorporate over-burn are training attendance and perceptions of effects of straw incorporation. Income from non-rice farming, total area cultivated, tenure status, presence of burning and solid waste management provincial ordinances are significant factors affecting choice to remove over burn. Continually providing farmers' training in rice production, increasing demand for rice straw for other uses, and increasing awareness of environmental laws and regulations are policy directions recommended.

  9. Treatment-seeking behaviour and social health insurance in Africa: the case of Ghana under the National Health Insurance Scheme.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fenny, Ama P; Asante, Felix A; Enemark, Ulrika; Hansen, Kristian S

    2014-10-27

    Health insurance is attracting more and more attention as a means for improving health care utilization and protecting households against impoverishment from out-of-pocket expenditures. Currently about 52 percent of the resources for financing health care services come from out of pocket sources or user fees in Africa. Therefore, Ghana serves as in interesting case study as it has successfully expanded coverage of the National Health Insurance Scheme (NHIS). The study aims to establish the treatment-seeking behaviour of households in Ghana under the NHI policy. The study relies on household data collected from three districts in Ghana covering the 3 ecological zones namely the coastal, forest and savannah.Out of the 1013 who sought care in the previous 4 weeks, 60% were insured and 71% of them sought care from a formal health facility. The results from the multinomial logit estimations show that health insurance and travel time to health facility are significant determinants of health care demand. Overall, compared to the uninsured, the insured are more likely to choose formal health facilities than informal care including self-medication when ill. We discuss the implications of these results as the concept of the NHIS grows widely in Ghana and serves as a good model for other African countries.

  10. Analysis on Time Window of Shared Parking in Hospitals Based on Parking Behaviors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qin Chen

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Hospitals are essential components of a city; huge traffic demand is generated and attracted, causing contradiction between parking supply and demand. By sharing parking berths, limited space can serve more demand which is beneficial to alleviating parking problems. Aimed at improving the capacity of shared parking, the paper analyzes four parking groups in typical hospitals, which are medical staff, outpatients, emergency patients, and visiting groups. The parking demand of medical staff is rigid. For outpatients and visiting groups, longer walking distance is acceptable and more attention is paid to parking fee. By contrast, emergency patients can accept shorter walking distance and focus more on convenience due to urgency. Under this circumstance, parking behaviors selection models are established by means of Multinomial Logit Model. On this basis, time value is adopted to calculate the tolerance of alterative parking time. Moreover, this paper explores the variation of time window, under different parking impedance. A case study is conducted and suggests that start and end point of a certain time window can be influenced by external factors.

  11. Allocation of authority in European health policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adolph, Christopher; Greer, Scott L; Massard da Fonseca, Elize

    2012-11-01

    Although many study the effects of different allocations of health policy authority, few ask why countries assign responsibility over different policies as they do. We test two broad theories: fiscal federalism, which predicts rational governments will concentrate information-intensive operations at lower levels, and redistributive and regulatory functions at higher levels; and "politicized federalism", which suggests a combination of systematic and historically idiosyncratic political variables interfere with efficient allocation of authority. Drawing on the WHO Health in Transition country profiles, we present new data on the allocation of responsibility for key health care policy tasks (implementation, provision, finance, regulation, and framework legislation) and policy areas (primary, secondary and tertiary care, public health and pharmaceuticals) in the 27 EU member states and Switzerland. We use a Bayesian multinomial mixed logit model to analyze how different countries arrive at different allocations of authority over each task and area of health policy, and find the allocation of powers broadly follows fiscal federalism. Responsibility for pharmaceuticals, framework legislation, and most finance lodges at the highest levels of government, acute and primary care in the regions, and provision at the local and regional levels. Where allocation does not follow fiscal federalism, it appears to reflect ethnic divisions, the population of states and regions, the presence of mountainous terrain, and the timing of region creation. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Residents’ Preferences for Household Kitchen Waste Source Separation Services in Beijing: A Choice Experiment Approach

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    Yalin Yuan

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available A source separation program for household kitchen waste has been in place in Beijing since 2010. However, the participation rate of residents is far from satisfactory. This study was carried out to identify residents’ preferences based on an improved management strategy for household kitchen waste source separation. We determine the preferences of residents in an ad hoc sample, according to their age level, for source separation services and their marginal willingness to accept compensation for the service attributes. We used a multinomial logit model to analyze the data, collected from 394 residents in Haidian and Dongcheng districts of Beijing City through a choice experiment. The results show there are differences of preferences on the services attributes between young, middle, and old age residents. Low compensation is not a major factor to promote young and middle age residents accept the proposed separation services. However, on average, most of them prefer services with frequent, evening, plastic bag attributes and without instructor. This study indicates that there is a potential for local government to improve the current separation services accordingly.

  13. An optimal hierarchical decision model for a regional logistics network with environmental impact consideration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Dezhi; Li, Shuangyan; Qin, Jin

    2014-01-01

    This paper proposes a new model of simultaneous optimization of three-level logistics decisions, for logistics authorities, logistics operators, and logistics users, for regional logistics network with environmental impact consideration. The proposed model addresses the interaction among the three logistics players in a complete competitive logistics service market with CO2 emission charges. We also explicitly incorporate the impacts of the scale economics of the logistics park and the logistics users' demand elasticity into the model. The logistics authorities aim to maximize the total social welfare of the system, considering the demand of green logistics development by two different methods: optimal location of logistics nodes and charging a CO2 emission tax. Logistics operators are assumed to compete with logistics service fare and frequency, while logistics users minimize their own perceived logistics disutility given logistics operators' service fare and frequency. A heuristic algorithm based on the multinomial logit model is presented for the three-level decision model, and a numerical example is given to illustrate the above optimal model and its algorithm. The proposed model provides a useful tool for modeling competitive logistics services and evaluating logistics policies at the strategic level.

  14. An Optimal Hierarchical Decision Model for a Regional Logistics Network with Environmental Impact Consideration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dezhi Zhang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a new model of simultaneous optimization of three-level logistics decisions, for logistics authorities, logistics operators, and logistics users, for regional logistics network with environmental impact consideration. The proposed model addresses the interaction among the three logistics players in a complete competitive logistics service market with CO2 emission charges. We also explicitly incorporate the impacts of the scale economics of the logistics park and the logistics users’ demand elasticity into the model. The logistics authorities aim to maximize the total social welfare of the system, considering the demand of green logistics development by two different methods: optimal location of logistics nodes and charging a CO2 emission tax. Logistics operators are assumed to compete with logistics service fare and frequency, while logistics users minimize their own perceived logistics disutility given logistics operators’ service fare and frequency. A heuristic algorithm based on the multinomial logit model is presented for the three-level decision model, and a numerical example is given to illustrate the above optimal model and its algorithm. The proposed model provides a useful tool for modeling competitive logistics services and evaluating logistics policies at the strategic level.

  15. The impact of store satisfaction on consumer responses in out-of-stock situations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aleksandar Grubor

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to test a conceptual model by means of which we try to establish the influence of store satisfaction and other variables (gender, mobility and availability of alternative stores on consumers’ responses to out-of-stock (OOS situations. Design/methodology/approach – The authors used a standardized questionnaire to gather data on consumer responses to OOS and then analyzed determinants including store satisfaction (for which reliability, validity and unidimensionality were tested. The survey was conducted in the four largest cities in Serbia. All respondents were interviewed randomly, through telephone calls, whereby 392 responses were gathered. The established hypotheses were tested by means of a multinomial logit model with the use of marginal effects. Findings – The results show that store satisfaction significantly affects three out-of-stock responses (store switching, postponement and product switching, whereas, positively in the case of product switching and postponement and negatively in the case of store switching. The results also show that store satisfied consumers, regardless of other factors, are not likely to switch stores in out-of-stock situations. Originality/value – As well as managerial implications, this paper included store satisfaction as an antecedent of consumer OOS responses for the first time. In addition, the impact of this variable on OOS responses was analyzed at both levels of the availability of alternative stores, gender and mobility.

  16. CORPORATE DIVIDEND POLICY AND BEHAVIOUR: THE MALAYSIAN EVIDENCE

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    I. M. Pandey

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available This study examines corporate dividend policy and behaviour of the Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange (KLSE companies. Our results confirm the influence of industry on payout ratios. We also find that payout ratios in a given industry vary significantly across time. The results of multinomial logit analysis reveal that the KLSE companies' dividend actions are sensitive to the changes in earnings. Probabilities of dividend increases, decreases and omissions are high, respectively, with earnings increases, decreases and losses. This causes volatility in dividend payments. The KLSE firms appear to be reluctant to omit dividend except when they suffer losses. Further, using Lintner's framework and panel data regression methodology, we find evidence in favour of regular, but less stable, dividend policies being pursued by the KLSE companies. This is contrary to the experiences of companies in the developed capital markets. The results of the two-way fixed firm and time effects model reveal that there are significant differences in dividend policies across individual firms and over time.

  17. Modelling parking behaviour considering heterogeneity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    San Martin, G.A.; Ibeas Portilla, A.; Alonso Oreña, B.; Olio, L. del

    2016-07-01

    Most of motorized trips in cities of middle and small size are made in public transport and mainly in private vehicle, this has caused a saturation in parking systems of the cities, causing important problems to society, one of the most important problems is high occupancy of public space by parking systems. Thus, is required the estimation of models that reproduce users’ behaviour when they are choosing for parking in cities, to carry out transport policies to improve transport efficiency and parking systems in the cities. The aim of this paper is the specification and estimation of models that simulate users’ behaviour when they are choosing among alternatives of parking that there are in the city: free on street parking, paid on street parking, paid on underground parking and Park and Ride (now there isn´t). For this purpose, is proposed a multinomial logit model that consider systematic and random variations in tastes. Data of users’ behaviour from the different alternatives of parking have been obtained with a stated preference surveys campaign which have been done in May 2015 in the principal parking zones of the city of Santander. In this paper, we provide a number of improvements to previously developed methodologies because of we consider much more realism to create the scenarios stated preference survey, obtaining better adjustments. (Author)

  18. Analysis on Residents’ Travel Activity Pattern in Historic Urban Areas: A Case Study of Historic Urban Area of Yangzhou, China

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    Mao Ye

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Travel behaviors and activity patterns in the historic urban area of a city are expected to be different from the overall situations in the city area. The primary objective of this study is to analyze the residents’ travel activity patterns in historic urban area. Based on survey data conducted in the historic urban area of Yangzhou, the travel activities of local residents in a whole day were classified into five types of patterns. The multinomial logit (MNL model was developed to evaluate the impacts of explanatory variables on the choices of activity patterns. The results showed that the choice of activity pattern was significantly impacted by five contributing factors including the gender, age, occupation, car ownership, and number of electric bikes in household. The other variables, which were the family population, preschoolers, number of conventional bikes in household, motorcycle ownership, and income, were found to be not significantly related to the choice of activities. The results of this study from historic urban area were compared to findings of previous studies from overall urban area. The comparison showed that the impacts of factors on activity pattern in the historic urban area were different from those in the overall area. Findings of this study provide important suggestions for the policy makings to improve the traffic situations in historic urban areas of cities.

  19. Exacerbations of COPD: quantifying the patient's perspective using discrete choice modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haughney, J; Partridge, M R; Vogelmeier, C; Larsson, T; Kessler, R; Ståhl, E; Brice, R; Löfdahl, C-G

    2005-10-01

    Patient-centred care is the current vogue in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), but it is only recently that robust techniques have become available to determine patients' values and preferences. In this international cross-sectional study, patients' concerns and expectations regarding COPD exacerbations were explored using discrete choice modelling. A fractional factorial design was used to develop scenarios comprising a combination of levels for nine different attributes. In face-to-face interviews, patients were presented with paired scenarios and asked to choose the least preferable. Multinomial logit (with hierarchical Bayes) methods were used to estimate utilities. A total of 125 patients (82 males; mean age 66 yrs; 4.6 mean exacerbations.yr-1) were recruited. The attributes of exacerbations considered most important were impact on everyday life (20%), need for medical care (16%), number of future attacks (12%) and breathlessness (11%). The next most important attributes were speed of recovery, productive cough and social impact (all 9%), followed by sleep disturbance and impact on mood (both 7%). Importantly, analysis of utility shifts showed that patients most feared being hospitalised, housebound or bedridden. These issues were more important than symptom improvement. Strategies for the clinical management of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease should clearly address patients' concerns and focus on preventing and treating exacerbations to avoid these feared outcomes.

  20. Levels and patterns of physical activity and sedentary time among superdiverse adolescents in East London: a cross-sectional study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curry, Whitney B; Dagkas, Symeon; Wilson, Marcia

    2017-06-01

    Little is known about the physical activity (PA) and sedentary time (ST) habits of adolescents from superdiverse communities in the UK. The objectives of this study are to examine and report the patterns of PA/ST among adolescents in East London living in superdiverse communities, to identify opportunities/barriers to PA and inform policy/practice. A total of 1260 young people (aged 11-13 years) from seven secondary schools in East London completed a questionnaire on PA/ST over the past seven days as part of the Newham's Every Child a Sports Person (NECaSP) intervention. Socio-demographic and anthropometric data were obtained. Significance tests were conducted to determine differences between socio-demographic and anthropometric predictors and PA/ST. Multinomial logit regression was used to explore the effects of ethnicity, sex, and body mass index (BMI) on PA levels. Males were significantly more likely to engage in PA at least five times during school in the past week (U = 5.07, z = -11.76, p times in the past week (U = 4.11, z =-1.17, p times after school in the last week than boys (b = .11, Wald X 2 (1) = 9.81, p current work presented and provide substantial evidence of the ways young people from minority ethnic groups process and act on the public health policy and the ways they understand and enact PA.

  1. Analysis of the transitional dynamics and duration of unemployment in Costa Rica

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan Manuel Castro Vincenzi

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper analyzes the main factors that explain the duration of unemployment spells and the transitional dynamics between the state of employment, unemployment and inactivity in Costa Rican labor market, using the Continuous Employment Survey for the period between the first quarter of 2012 and the third quarter of 2013. This research focuses mainly on supply-side factors and uses binominal and multinomial logit models in order to determine which variables determine that some people are more likely to be unemployed, Markov matrixes to estimate a series of transitional probabilities for different states in the labor market, and a survival model to characterize the duration of the unemployment spells. We conclude that women are more likely to be unemployed than men, and have smaller probabilities of changing from unemployed to employed. Also, the duration of their unemployment spells is longer. Furthermore, a higher academic level decreases the probabilities for an individual of being unemployed, but increases the duration of the unemployment spell. A correlation between the performance of the economic activity and the probabilities of becoming employed and of becoming inactive is observed.

  2. Railway and road discrete choice model for foreign trade freight between Antioquia and the Port of Cartagena

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. D. Pineda-Jaramillo

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Most Colombian freight is transported on roads with barely acceptable conditions, and although there is a speculation about the need for a railway for freight transportation, there is not a study in Colombia showing the variables that influence the modal choice by the companies that generate freight transportation. This article presents the calculation of demand for a hypothetical railway through a discrete choice model. It begins with a qualitative research through focus group techniques to identify the variables that influence the choice of persons responsible for the transportation of large commercial companies in Antioquia (Colombia. The influential variables in the election were the cost and service frequency, and these variables were used to apply a Stated Preference (SP and Revealed Preference (RP survey, then to calibrate a Multinomial Logit Model (MNL, and to estimate the influence of each of them. We show that the probability of railway choice by the studied companies varies between 67% and 93%, depending on differences in these variables.

  3. Push or Pull: Changes in the Relative Risk and Growth of Entrepreneurship Among Older Households.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weller, Christian E; Wenger, Jeffrey B; Lichtenstein, Benyamin; Arcand, Carolyn

    2018-03-19

    Amid insufficient retirement savings and the growing need to work longer, it is important to understand why self-employment, especially entrepreneurship, has grown among older households. Older households may have been pushed into entrepreneurship by the growing risks of wage-and-salary employment as wages and jobs have become less stable. Alternatively, older households may have been pulled into entrepreneurship as the associated risks have declined, for instance, due to greater opportunities to diversify income away from risky business income. We examine the economic causes of the rise in entrepreneurship among older households. We use summary statistics and multinomial logit regressions to analyze the link between economic pressures in wage-and-salary employment, financial strength of entrepreneurship, and the presence and change of entrepreneurship among older households-aged 50 years or older. We use household data from the Federal Reserve's Survey of Consumer Finances from 1989 to 2013. We find little support for the claim that increased economic pressures are correlated with rising entrepreneurship. Instead, our results suggest that the growth of older entrepreneurship is coincident with increasing access to dividend and interest income. We also find some evidence that access to Social Security and other annuity benefits increases the likelihood of self-employment. Implications: Entrepreneurship among older households increasingly correlates with income diversification. Policymakers interested in encouraging more entrepreneurship among older households could consider increased access to income diversification through social insurance.

  4. Heterogeneous Value of Water: Empirical Evidence in South Korea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yoon Lee

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Anthropogenic pressures have exacerbated self-sustaining river services, and growing concerns over sustaining river system become global problematic issues that lead us to implement river restoration projects. Of those projects, governing diverse needs and desires from stakeholders for those who have various water values are key elements of identifying the success of the project. In fact, the Korean government has had concern over restoring the rivers which brings to construct 16 weirs in four major rivers and may fail to achieve main goal of the project, which is to ameliorate water quality. In this study, principle component analysis and multinomial logit model were executed to investigate major socioeconomic variables to influence water values in terms of sustainability in Korea. Evitable evidences have been found that age, income, education level, and city dwelling are the most effective variables to estimate water values. In addition, a monotonous water development project and a myopic view could cause major dejection across the nation and may lead to the failure of water governance. Unfortunately, the latter may be observed in Korea as one of the reasons for the recent amplification of major conflicts.

  5. Providing animal health services to the poor in Northern Ghana: rethinking the role of community animal health workers?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mockshell, Jonathan; Ilukor, John; Birner, Regina

    2014-02-01

    The Community Animal Health Workers (CAHWs) system has been promoted as an alternative solution to providing animal health services in marginal areas. Yet, access to quality animal health services still remains a fundamental problem for livestock dependent communities. This paper uses the concepts of accessibility, affordability, and transaction costs to examine the perceptions of livestock keepers about the various animal health service providers. The empirical analysis is based on a survey of 120 livestock-keeping households in the Tolon-Kumbungu and Savelugu-Nanton districts in the Northern Region of Ghana. A multinomial logit model was used to determine the factors that influence households' choice of alternative animal health service providers. The results show that the government para-vets are the most preferred type of animal health service providers while CAHWs are the least preferred. Reasons for this observation include high transaction costs and low performance resulting from limited training. In areas with few or no government para-vets, farmers have resorted to self-treatment or to selling sick animals for consumption, which has undesirable health implications. These practices also result in significant financial losses for farmers. This paper finds that the CAHWs' system is insufficient for providing quality animal health services to the rural poor in marginal areas. Therefore, market-smart alternative solutions requiring strong public sector engagement to support livestock farmers in marginal areas and setting minimum training standards for animal health service providers merit policy consideration.

  6. Modelling Preference Heterogeneity for Theatre Tickets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baldin, Andrea; Bille, Trine

    This paper analyzes the behavioural choice for theatre tickets using a rich dataset for 2010-2013 from the sale system of the Royal Danish National Theatre. A consumer who decides to attend a theater production faces multiple sources of price variation that depends on: socio-economic characterist......This paper analyzes the behavioural choice for theatre tickets using a rich dataset for 2010-2013 from the sale system of the Royal Danish National Theatre. A consumer who decides to attend a theater production faces multiple sources of price variation that depends on: socio......-economic characteristics, quality of the seat, day of the performance and timing of purchase. Except for the first case, factors of price differentiation involves a choice by the consumer among different ticket alternatives. Two modelling approaches, namely multinomial logit (with socio-demographic characteristics......) and latent class are proposed in order to model ticket purchase behaviour. These models allow us explicitly to take into account consumers' preference heterogeneity with respect to the attributes associated to each ticket alternative In addition, the distribution of the willingness-to-pay (WTP) of choice...

  7. Smallholder dairy sheep production and market channel development: an institutional perspective of rural Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voors, M J; D'Haese, M

    2010-08-01

    The rural economy of the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia has been adapting to new economic and political realities. Especially important for rural areas has been the breakdown of the socialist market structure in agriculture, which meant the demise of cooperative structures and farmers gaining access to new market outlets. The aim of this paper is to investigate the potential of dairy sheep farmers to enter into new contracts with buyers and to analyze why some farmers continue selling to traditional market outlets. Using survey data of dairy sheep farmers we studied the choice they make between 3 market outlets: (1) selling milk to a recently established large dairy processor, (2) selling milk to traditional small local processors, or (3) transforming milk on-farm into cheese and selling it at the farm gate or at local markets. The significance of determinants of choice for these markets were tested in a multinomial logit model, which showed that distance to the collection point of the large dairy processor was the most important determinant of whether farmers sold milk or made cheese, with those at a greater distance selling cheese. Furthermore, we analyzed the main sources of transaction costs in developing new market channels. Overcoming transport and transaction costs may contribute to higher income for the farmers and hence to improving their livelihoods. Copyright (c) 2010 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Gender gap in parents' financing strategy for hospitalization of their children: evidence from India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asfaw, Abay; Lamanna, Francesca; Klasen, Stephan

    2010-03-01

    The 'missing women' dilemma in India has sparked great interest in investigating gender discrimination in the provision of health care in the country. No studies, however, have directly examined discrimination in health-care financing strategies in the case of severe illness of sons versus daughters. In this paper, we hypothesize that households who face tight budget constraints are more likely to spend their meager resources on hospitalization of boys rather than girls. We use the 60th round of the Indian National Sample Survey (2004) and a multinomial logit model to test this hypothesis and to throw some light on this important but overlooked issue. The results reveal that boys are much more likely to be hospitalized than girls. When it comes to financing, the gap in the usage of household income and savings is relatively small, while the gender gap in the probability of hospitalization and usage of more onerous financing strategies is very high. Ceteris paribus, the probability of boys to be hospitalized by financing from borrowing, sale of assets, help from friends, etc. is much higher than that of girls. Moreover, in line with our theoretical framework, the results indicate that the gender gap intensifies as we move from the richest to poorest households. (c) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  9. Farmer preference for improved corn seeds in Chiapas, Mexico: A choice experiment approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sánchez-Toledano, Blanca I.; Kallas, Zein; Gil-Roig, José M.

    2017-07-01

    Appropriate technologies must be developed for adoption of improved seeds based on the farmers’ preferences and needs. Our research identified the farmers’ willingness to pay (WTP) as a key determinant for selecting the improved varieties of maize seeds and landraces in Chiapas, Mexico. This work also analyzed the farmers’ observed heterogeneity on the basis of their socio-economic characteristics. Data were collected using a semi-structured questionnaire from 200 farmers. A proportional choice experiment approach was applied using a proportional choice variable, where farmers were asked to state the percentage of preference for different alternative varieties in a choice set. The generalized multinomial logit model in WTP-space approach was used. The results suggest that the improved seed varieties are preferred over the Creole alternatives, thereby ensuring higher yields, resistance to diseases, and larger ear size. For the preference heterogeneity analyses, a latent class model was applied. Three types of farmers were identified: innovators (60.5%), transition farmers (29.4%), and conservative farmers (10%). An understanding of farmers’ preferences is useful in designing agricultural policies and creati.

  10. Factors influencing farmers’ willingness to participate in water allocation trading. A case study in southern Spain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giacomo Giannoccaro

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to uncover the factors that influence farmers’ attitudes towards water allocation trading. In the study, we simulate two water availability scenarios, an average year and a drought year, in a contingent valuation experiment with 241 farmers. A survey was held in the spring of 2012 in the Guadalquivir and Almanzora River Basins. First, we estimated a multinomial logit model to determine the factors that influence farmers to decide to participate in our hypothetical market. We then analysed the structural and socio-economic factors determining the monetary value of traded water using Heckman’s two-step model. Our results indicate that those farmers who are more innovative and have had agricultural training show a higher willingness to participate in water trading. Additionally, low water-supply guarantee and appropriate information about seasonal water availability increase the probability of participation. Higher willingness to pay (WTP for water is found in horticulture and among farmers who grow citrus and other permanent crops; lower water selling value (WTA is found in farms with extensive annual crops and traditional olive groves. However, monetary values (WTP/WTA are strongly dependent on the current cost of irrigation water services. While findings of this research seem to support the idea of diffusion innovation theory, the existence of ethical concerns that might influence farmers’ acceptance of irrigation water markets needs further analysis.

  11. The Impact of Employer Attitude to Green Commuting Plans on Reducing Car Driving: A Mixed Method Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chuan Ding

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Reducing car trips and promoting green commuting modes are generally considered important solutions to reduce the increase of energy consumption and transportation CO2 emissions. One potential solution for alleviating transportation CO2 emissions has been to identify a role for the employer through green commuter programs. This paper offers an approach to assess the effects of employer attitudes towards green commuting plans on commuter mode choice and the intermediary role car ownership plays in the mode choice decision process. A mixed method which extends the traditional discrete choice model by incorporating latent variables and mediating variables with a structure equation model was used to better understand the commuter mode choice behaviour. The empirical data were selected from Washington-Baltimore Regional Household Travel Survey in 2007-2008, including all the trips from home to workplace during the morning hours. The model parameters were estimated using the simultaneous estimation approach and the integrated model turns out to be superior to the traditional multinomial logit (MNL model accounting for the impact of employer attitudes towards green commuting. The direct and indirect effects of socio-demographic attributes and employer attitudes towards green commuting were estimated. Through the structural equation modelling with mediating variable, this approach confirmed the intermediary nature of car ownership in the choice process. The results found in this paper provide helpful information for transportation and planning policymakers to test the transportation and planning policies effects and encourage green commuting reducing transportation CO2 emissions.

  12. Occupant Perceptions and a Health Outcome in Retail Stores

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhao, Mingjie; Kim, Yang-Seon; Srebric, Jelena

    2015-11-02

    Indoor Environmental Quality (IEQ) in commercial buildings, such as retail stores, can affect employee satisfaction, productivity, and health. This study administered an IEQ survey to retail employees and found correlations between measured IEQ parameters and the survey responses. The survey included 611 employees in 14 retail stores located in Pennsylvania (climate zone 5A) and Texas (climate zone 2A). The survey questionnaire featured ratings of different aspects of IEQ, including thermal comfort, lighting and noise level, indoor smells, overall cleanness, and environmental quality. Simultaneously with the survey, on-site physical measurements were taken to collect data of relative humidity levels, air exchange rates, dry bulb temperatures, and contaminant concentrations. This data was analyzed using multinomial logit regression with independent variables being the measured IEQ parameters, employees’ gender, and age. This study found that employee perception of stuffy smells is related to formaldehyde and PM10 concentrations. Furthermore, the survey also asked the employees to report an annual frequency of common colds as a health indicator. The regression analysis showed that the cold frequency statistically correlates with the measured air exchange rates, outdoor temperatures, and indoor PM concentrations. Overall, the air exchange rate is the most influential parameter on the employee perception of the overall environmental quality and self-reported health outcome.

  13. Citizen participation in patient prioritization policy decisions: an empirical and experimental study on patients' characteristics.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adele Diederich

    Full Text Available Health systems worldwide are grappling with the need to control costs to maintain system viability. With the combination of worsening economic conditions, an aging population and reductions in tax revenues, the pressures to make structural changes are expected to continue growing. Common cost control mechanisms, e.g. curtailment of patient access and treatment prioritization, are likely to be adversely viewed by citizens. It seems therefore wise to include them in the decision making processes that lead up to policy changes. In the context of a multilevel iterative mixed-method design a quantitative survey representative of the German population (N = 2031 was conducted to probe the acceptance of priority setting in medicine and to explore the practicability of direct public involvement. Here we focus on preferences for patients' characteristics (medical aspects, lifestyle and socio-economic status as possible criteria for prioritizing medical services. A questionnaire with closed response options was fielded to gain insight into attitudes toward broad prioritization criteria of patient groups. Furthermore, a discrete choice experiment was used as a rigorous approach to investigate citizens' preferences toward specific criteria level in context of other criteria. Both the questionnaire and the discrete choice experiment were performed with the same sample. The citizens' own health and social situation are included as explanatory variables. Data were evaluated using corresponding analysis, contingency analysis, logistic regression and a multinomial exploded logit model. The results show that some medical criteria are highly accepted for prioritizing patients whereas socio-economic criteria are rejected.

  14. Citizen participation in patient prioritization policy decisions: an empirical and experimental study on patients' characteristics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diederich, Adele; Swait, Joffre; Wirsik, Norman

    2012-01-01

    Health systems worldwide are grappling with the need to control costs to maintain system viability. With the combination of worsening economic conditions, an aging population and reductions in tax revenues, the pressures to make structural changes are expected to continue growing. Common cost control mechanisms, e.g. curtailment of patient access and treatment prioritization, are likely to be adversely viewed by citizens. It seems therefore wise to include them in the decision making processes that lead up to policy changes. In the context of a multilevel iterative mixed-method design a quantitative survey representative of the German population (N = 2031) was conducted to probe the acceptance of priority setting in medicine and to explore the practicability of direct public involvement. Here we focus on preferences for patients' characteristics (medical aspects, lifestyle and socio-economic status) as possible criteria for prioritizing medical services. A questionnaire with closed response options was fielded to gain insight into attitudes toward broad prioritization criteria of patient groups. Furthermore, a discrete choice experiment was used as a rigorous approach to investigate citizens' preferences toward specific criteria level in context of other criteria. Both the questionnaire and the discrete choice experiment were performed with the same sample. The citizens' own health and social situation are included as explanatory variables. Data were evaluated using corresponding analysis, contingency analysis, logistic regression and a multinomial exploded logit model. The results show that some medical criteria are highly accepted for prioritizing patients whereas socio-economic criteria are rejected.

  15. The morality of attitudes toward nanotechnology: about God, techno-scientific progress, and interfering with nature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vandermoere, Frederic; Blanchemanche, Sandrine; Bieberstein, Andrea; Marette, Stephan; Roosen, Jutta

    2010-02-01

    Using survey data, we examine public attitudes toward and awareness of nanotechnology in Germany ( N = 750). First, it is shown that a majority of the people are still not familiar with nanotechnology. In addition, diffusion of information about nanotechnology thus far mostly seems to reach men and people with a relative higher educational background. Also, pro-science and technology views are positively related with nanotech familiarity. Results further show that a majority of the people have an indifferent, ambiguous, or non-attitude toward nanotechnology. Multinomial logit analyses further reveal that nanotech familiarity is positively related with people's attitudes. In addition, it is shown that traditional religiosity is unrelated to attitudes and that individual religiosity is weakly related to nanotechnology attitudes. However, moral covariates other than religiosity seem of major importance. In particular, our results show that more negative views on technological and scientific progress as well as more holistic views about the relation between people and the environment increase the likelihood of having a negative attitude toward nanotechnology.

  16. Spatial Distribution of Underweight, Overweight and Obesity among Women and Children: Results from the 2011 Uganda Demographic and Health Survey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kedir N. Turi

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available While undernutrition and infectious diseases are still persistent in developing countries, overweight, obesity, and associated comorbidities have become more prevalent. Uganda, a developing sub-Saharan African country, is currently experiencing the public health paradox of undernutrition and overnutrition. We utilized the 2011 Uganda Demographic and Health Survey (DHS to examine risk factors and hot spots for underweight, overweight, and obesity among adult females (N = 2,420 and their children (N = 1,099 using ordinary least squares and multinomial logit regression and the ArcGIS Getis-Ord Gi* statistic. Overweight and obese women were significantly more likely to have overweight children, and overweight was correlated with being in the highest wealth class (OR = 2.94, 95% CI = 1.99–4.35, and residing in an urban (OR = 1.76, 95% CI = 1.34–2.29 but not a conflict prone (OR = 0.48, 95% CI = 0.29–0.78 area. Underweight clustered significantly in the Northern and Northeastern regions, while overweight females and children clustered in the Southeast. We demonstrate that the DHS can be used to assess geographic clustering and burden of disease, thereby allowing for targeted programs and policies. Further, we pinpoint specific regions and population groups in Uganda for targeted preventive measures and treatment to reduce the burden of overweight and chronic diseases in Uganda.

  17. ATITUDES DO CONSUMIDOR EM RELAÇÃO A UM PRODUTO ALIMENTAR: TENDÊNCIAS DO SETOR DE ALIMENTOS CONGELADOS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gislayne Silva Goulart

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Este artigo apresenta os resultados de um estudo exploratório, que pretendeu identificar a atitude de 476 consumidores de Campo Grande/MS em relação a um produto alimentar [pão de queijo congelado] e as variáveis socioeconômicas que mais determinam a frequência de consumo do mesmo. Este estudo faz parte de uma pesquisa maior, financiada pelo CNPq, que está sendo desenvolvida em parceria entre UFMS e o SENAI/MS. Para o tratamento dos dados, foi realizada a análise estatística descritiva, seguida da análise Multinomial Logit com o auxílio do software Stata. Os resultados dessas análises permitiram identificar que independente da frequência de compra, mais da metade dos consumidores de alimentos agrupados em cada nível de frequência de compra consideram que pão de queijo congelado é sinônimo de comida prática/rápida e que as variáveis socioeconômicas – gênero, escolaridade, renda e situação conjugal são estatisticamente significativas. Assim, são determinantes da frequência de compra do produto.

  18. Species richness alone does not predict cultural ecosystem service value

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graves, Rose A.; Pearson, Scott M.; Turner, Monica G.

    2017-01-01

    Many biodiversity-ecosystem services studies omit cultural ecosystem services (CES) or use species richness as a proxy and assume that more species confer greater CES value. We studied wildflower viewing, a key biodiversity-based CES in amenity-based landscapes, in Southern Appalachian Mountain forests and asked (i) How do aesthetic preferences for wildflower communities vary with components of biodiversity, including species richness?; (ii) How do aesthetic preferences for wildflower communities vary across psychographic groups?; and (iii) How well does species richness perform as an indicator of CES value compared with revealed social preferences for wildflower communities? Public forest visitors (n = 293) were surveyed during the summer of 2015 and asked to choose among images of wildflower communities in which flower species richness, flower abundance, species evenness, color diversity, and presence of charismatic species had been digitally manipulated. Aesthetic preferences among images were unrelated to species richness but increased with more abundant flowers, greater species evenness, and greater color diversity. Aesthetic preferences were consistent across psychographic groups and unaffected by knowledge of local flora or value placed on wildflower viewing. When actual wildflower communities (n = 54) were ranked based on empirically measured flower species richness or wildflower viewing utility based on multinomial logit models of revealed preferences, rankings were broadly similar. However, designation of hotspots (CES values above the median) based on species richness alone missed 27% of wildflower viewing utility hotspots. Thus, conservation priorities for sustaining CES should incorporate social preferences and consider multiple dimensions of biodiversity that underpin CES supply. PMID:28320953

  19. The morality of attitudes toward nanotechnology: about God, techno-scientific progress, and interfering with nature

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vandermoere, Frederic, E-mail: Frederic_Vandermoere@hks.harvard.ed [Program on Science, Technology and Society, Harvard Kennedy School (United States); Blanchemanche, Sandrine [INRA Paris, Metarisk Department (France); Bieberstein, Andrea [Technische Universitaet Muenchen, Marketing und Konsumforschung (Germany); Marette, Stephan [INRA, UMR Economie publique (France); Roosen, Jutta [Technische Universitaet Muenchen, Lehrstuhl fuer BWL - Marketing und Konsumforschung (Germany)

    2010-02-15

    Using survey data, we examine public attitudes toward and awareness of nanotechnology in Germany (N = 750). First, it is shown that a majority of the people are still not familiar with nanotechnology. In addition, diffusion of information about nanotechnology thus far mostly seems to reach men and people with a relative higher educational background. Also, pro-science and technology views are positively related with nanotech familiarity. Results further show that a majority of the people have an indifferent, ambiguous, or non-attitude toward nanotechnology. Multinomial logit analyses further reveal that nanotech familiarity is positively related with people's attitudes. In addition, it is shown that traditional religiosity is unrelated to attitudes and that individual religiosity is weakly related to nanotechnology attitudes. However, moral covariates other than religiosity seem of major importance. In particular, our results show that more negative views on technological and scientific progress as well as more holistic views about the relation between people and the environment increase the likelihood of having a negative attitude toward nanotechnology.

  20. Choosing a Doctor: Does Presentation Format Affect the Way Consumers Use Health Care Performance Information?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kenny, Patricia; Goodall, Stephen; Street, Deborah J; Greene, Jessica

    2017-12-01

    Choosing a new health service provider can be difficult and is dependent on the type and clarity of the information available. This study examines if the presentation of service quality information affects the decisions of consumers choosing a general medical practice. The aim was to examine the impact of presentation format on attribute level interpretation and relative importance. A discrete choice experiment eliciting preferences for a general medical practice was conducted using four different presentation formats for service quality attributes: (1) frequency and percentage with an icon array, (2) star ratings, (3) star ratings with a text benchmark, and (4) percentage alone. A total of 1208 respondents from an online panel were randomised to see two formats, answering nine choices for each, where one was a dominated choice. Logistic regression was used to assess the impact of presentation format on the probability of choosing a dominated alternative. A generalised multinomial logit model was used to estimate the relative importance of the attribute levels. The probability of incorrectly choosing a dominated alternative was significantly higher when the quality information was presented as a percentage relative to a frequency with icon array, star rating or bench-marked star rating. Preferences for a practice did not differ significantly by presentation format, nor did the probability of finding the information difficult to understand. Quantitative health service quality information will be more useful to consumers if presented by combining the numerical information with a graphic, or using a star rating if appropriate for the context.

  1. Access to Bridge Employment: Who Finds and Who Does Not Find Work After Retirement?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dingemans, Ellen; Henkens, Kène; Solinge, Hanna van

    2016-08-01

    Empirical studies on the determinants of bridge employment have often neglected the fact that some retirees may be unsuccessful in finding a bridge job. We present an integrative framework that emphasizes socioeconomic factors, health status, social context, and psychological factors to explain why some people fully retired after career exit, some participated in bridge jobs, while others unsuccessfully searched for one. Using Dutch panel data for 1,221 retirees, we estimated a multinomial logit model to explain participation in, and unsuccessful searches for, bridge employment. About 1 in 4 retirees participated in bridge employment after retirement, while 7% searched unsuccessfully for such work. Particularly those who experienced involuntary career exit were found to have a higher probability of being unsuccessful at finding bridge employment. The current study provides evidence for the impact of the social context on postretirement work and suggests a cumulative disadvantage in the work domain in later life. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  2. Patient Preferences for Managing Insomnia: A Discrete Choice Experiment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheung, Janet M Y; Bartlett, Delwyn J; Armour, Carol L; Saini, Bandana; Laba, Tracey-Lea

    2018-03-03

    Despite the rapid development of effective treatments, both pharmacological and non-pharmacological, insomnia management remains suboptimal at the practice interface. Patient preferences play a critical role in influencing treatment outcomes. However, there is currently a mismatch between patient preferences and clinician recommendations, partly perpetuated by a limited understanding of the patients' decision-making process. The aim of our study was to empirically quantify patient preferences for treatment attributes common to both pharmacological and non-pharmacological insomnia treatments. An efficient dual-response discrete choice experiment was conducted to evaluate patient treatment preferences for managing insomnia. The sample included 205 patients with self-reported insomnia and an Insomnia Severity Index ≥ 14. Participants were presented with two unlabelled hypothetical scenarios with an opt-out option across 12 choice sets. Data were analyzed using a mixed multinomial logit model to investigate the influence of five attributes (i.e. time, onset of action, maintainability of improved sleep, length of treatment, and monthly cost) on treatment preferences. Treatments were preferentially viewed if they conferred long-term sleep benefits (p managing insomnia.

  3. Factors influencing farmers’ willingness to participate in water allocation trading. A case study in southern Spain

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Giannoccaro, G.; Castillo, M.; Berbel, J.

    2016-11-01

    This study aims to uncover the factors that influence farmers’ attitudes towards water allocation trading. In the study, we simulate two water availability scenarios, an average year and a drought year, in a contingent valuation experiment with 241 farmers. A survey was held in the spring of 2012 in the Guadalquivir and Almanzora River Basins. First, we estimated a multinomial logit model to determine the factors that influence farmers to decide to participate in our hypothetical market. We then analysed the structural and socio-economic factors determining the monetary value of traded water using Heckman’s two-step model. Our results indicate that those farmers who are more innovative and have had agricultural training show a higher willingness to participate in water trading. Additionally, low water-supply guarantee and appropriate information about seasonal water availability increase the probability of participation. Higher willingness to pay (WTP) for water is found in horticulture and among farmers who grow citrus and other permanent crops; lower water selling value (WTA) is found in farms with extensive annual crops and traditional olive groves. However, monetary values (WTP/WTA) are strongly dependent on the current cost of irrigation water services. While findings of this research seem to support the idea of diffusion innovation theory, the existence of ethical concerns that might influence farmers’ acceptance of irrigation water markets needs further analysis. (Author)

  4. Sequencing the real time of the elderly: Evidence from South Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erofili Grapsa

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Background: Understanding how the elderly in developing countries spend their time has received little attention. Moreover, the potential of time use data to discern variation in activity patterns has not been fully realized by methods which use a mean added time approach. Objective: To uncover patterns of time use among the elderly (60 years and older in South Africa by applying an innovative methodology that incorporates the timing, duration, and frequency of activities in the analysis. Methods: We use sequence analysis, which treats the daily series of activities of each individual as a sequence, and cluster analysis, to group these sequences into common clusters of time use behaviour. We then estimate multinomial logit regressions to identify the characteristics of the elderly which predict cluster membership. Results: We find that the time use behaviour of the elderly in South Africa can be divided into five distinct clusters, according to the relative importance in their day of personal care, household maintenance, work, mass media, and social or cultural activities. In comparison to men, women are overrepresented in the cluster where household work dominates, while they are underrepresented in the cluster of the elderly who engage in production work. A range of other individual and household characteristics are also important in predicting cluster membership. Contribution: Sequence and cluster analysis permit a nuanced examination of the differences and commonalities in time use patterns among the elderly in South Africa. There is considerable potential to extend these methods to other studies of time use behaviour.

  5. Serum nutritional biomarkers and their associations with sleep among US adults in recent national surveys.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    May A Beydoun

    Full Text Available The associations between nutritional biomarkers and measures of sleep quantity and quality remain unclear.Cross-sectional data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys (NHANES 2005-2006 were used. We selected 2,459 adults aged 20-85, with complete data on key variables. Five sleep measures were constructed as primary outcomes: (A Sleep duration; (B Sleep disorder; (C Three factors obtained from factor analysis of 15 items and labeled as "Poor sleep-related daytime dysfunction" (Factor 1, "Sleepiness" (Factor 2 and "Sleep disturbance" (Factor 3. Main exposures were serum concentrations of key nutrients, namely retinol, retinyl esters, carotenoids (α-carotene, β-carotene, β-cryptoxanthin, lutein+zeaxanthin, lycopene, folate, vitamin B-12, total homocysteine (tHcy, vitamin C, 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OHD and vitamin E. Main analyses consisted of multiple linear, logistic and multinomial logit models.Among key findings, independent inverse associations were found between serum vitamin B-12 and sleep duration, 25(OHD and sleepiness (as well as insomnia, and between folate and sleep disturbance. Serum total carotenoids concentration was linked to higher odds of short sleep duration (i.e. 5-6 h per night compared to normal sleep duration (7-8 h per night.A few of the selected serum nutritional biomarkers were associated with sleep quantity and quality. Longitudinal studies are needed to ascertain temporality and assess putative causal relationships.

  6. Trends in contraceptive patterns and behaviors during a period of fertility transition in China: 1988-2006.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Xiaoying; Tan, Lingfang; Ren, Qiang; Cui, Zhijun; Wu, Junqing; Lin, Ting; He, Jie; Chen, Hua

    2012-09-01

    This paper explores how contraceptive patterns and behaviors changed during the course of China's population transition and a period of low fertility from 1988 to 2006. Based on data from Chinese nationwide surveys of family planning and reproductive health undertaken in 1988, 1997, 2001 and 2006, this study uses a multinomial logit model to analyze changes in, regional differences in and determinants of contraceptive behaviors during this period. The overall prevalence of contraceptive use among married women aged 15-49 years changed little during these 20 years, holding steady at about 90%. However, there were notable changes in the method mix: the predominant methods used were the long-term methods of the intrauterine device (IUD) and female sterilization, and contraceptive use gradually shifted from sterilization to IUDs and condoms. There existed a close relationship between contraceptive methods used and sociodemographic characteristics. Hans, rural, old and less educated women are more likely to use sterilization, while minorities, urban, young and educated women are more likely to use IUDs. There are marked changes in the method mix among different demographic groups during the course of China's population transition and a period of low fertility. The findings indicate that future works aimed at promoting reproductive health should be diverse among different populations. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Price elasticity and pharmaceutical selection: the influence of managed care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Domino, Marisa Elena; Salkever, David S

    2003-07-01

    State Medicaid programs are turning increasingly to managed care to control expenditures, although the types of managed care programs in use have changed dramatically. Little is known about the influence of the shifting Medicaid managed care arena on treatment decisions. This paper investigates factors affecting the selection of treatments for depression by providers participating in either of two Medicaid managed care programs. Of particular interest is the influence of medication price on the choice of treatment, since one vehicle through which managed care organizations can reduce total expenditures is by increasing the price sensitivity of participating providers. We take a new approach by phrasing the problem as a discrete choice, using a nested multinomial logit model for the analyses. Contrary to earlier literature, we find some evidence that physicians in both programs do take price into consideration when selecting among treatment options. HMO providers in particular demonstrate increased price sensitivity in the two most commonly prescribed categories of antidepressants. Copyright 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  8. Factors driving deforestation in common-pool resources in northern Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perez-Verdin, Gustavo; Kim, Yeon-Su; Hospodarsky, Denver; Tecle, Aregai

    2009-01-01

    The theory of collective action has been extensively used to explain the relationship between common-based property regimes and the conservation of natural resources. However, there are two key components of the theory that literature reports as puzzles in which no consensus exists about their effect on the performance of common-pool resources. These are group size and heterogeneity. This study analyzes the effects of these two key components on the effectiveness of community-based forestry, called ejidos, to protect their forest resources in northern Mexico. We used a multinomial logit model to determine the contribution of 16 explanatory variables to the dependent variable, a measure of success of ejidos defined by the presence of deforested, degraded, or forested conditions. The results show that corn yield, marginality, percent of forest area, total population, a forest value index, distance to markets, roads and towns, were all statistically significant in driving deforested conditions. Deforestation becomes more attractive for poor communities and as corn yield and distance to towns, roads, and markets decrease. In general, group size and heterogeneity had no significant effects on the presence of deforested conditions. Deforestation is driven by resource-specific characteristics, such as location and soil productivity, not by ejidos' attributes, such as total area or number of members. We argue that current institutional policies focusing on the structure of property right arrangements should be shifted (1) to provide better technology for land cultivation; (2) to reduce the marginality problem in poor communities; and (3) to strengthen local institutions.

  9. Education and family bias: an approach to the vulnerability of married women in Spain, 2005-2012

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan A. CAÑADA VICINAY

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to analyze the role of education in labor inequality based on gender, age and marital status in Spain in the period 2005q1-2012q4 with individual data from the EPA. The axes of inquiry are twofold: 1st crosssectional approach to family bias expressed in the job profiles of cycle life, occupational segregation, concentration of employment in occupational groups and allocation of family responsibilities between spouses; and 2nd longitudinal treatment with sliding panel of family interference in the market status of married women by age and educational level. Cross-sectional analysis shows negative associations between marriage-education in both sexes and between education and participation in women by comparison with men, jointly with large gender segregation in married women suggests that they support a family specific bias which hinders its market presence. The individual perception of family interference confirms this fact as they are married women who suffer mainly from the problems of work-family conciliation, even younger than 44 years where they are more educated than their husbands and gender equality is a social value settled. The longitudinal analysis quantifies, with multinomial Logit estimates, the disadvantage of married women to participate into the market in terms of the entry barrier for inactive wives and the premature withdrawal for occupied ones due to problems of work-family reconciliation. In short, family responsibilities leave off the market to married women, regardless of age and education.

  10. Influence of the Farmer’s Livelihood Assets on Livelihood Strategies in the Western Mountainous Area, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhifei Liu

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The livelihood strategies of farm households depend on the conditions of their assets, and farm households cope with risks and shocks through portfolios consisting of different types of assets. Thus, discussing the relationship between the livelihood assets and the livelihood strategies of farm households helps in understanding their livelihood conditions and in formulating reasonable poverty reduction policies. Taking Zunyi City, which is located in a western, mountainous area of China, as the study region and using the framework of sustainability analysis, this study first tries to establish the mechanism of the influence of farm household livelihood assets on livelihood strategies, then evaluates different farm household livelihood assets by establishing an evaluation index system for them, and finally conducts an empirical analysis on the influence of farm household livelihood assets on livelihood strategies using a multinomial logit model. The research results indicate the following: (1 natural assets and material assets have a significant negative influence on farm households’ choice of livelihood strategies, that is, the more natural assets and material assets that farm households own, the more likely they are to choose livelihood strategies involving engaging in agricultural production; (2 Manpower assets and financial assets have a significant positive influence on farm households’ choice of livelihood strategy, namely, the more manpower assets and financial assets that farm households own, the more likely they are to choose livelihood strategies involving engaging in non-agricultural production; (3 Social assets have no significant influence on farm households’ choice of livelihood strategy.

  11. SÃO DETERMINANTES?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ani Caroline Grigion Potrich

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available El presente estudio analiza la influencia que tiene los factores comportamentales y las variables socioeconómicas y demográficas sobre la propensión al endeudamiento. Para tal fin se realizó una investigación a partir de 2.391 encuestas. Con base en las respuestas se utilizó el análisis factorial para validar los factores de materialismo y compras compulsivas. Con la estimación de un modelo Logit Multinomial se analizó la influencia de estos factores y de las variables socioeconómicas y demográficas en la propensión al endeudamiento. Los principales resultados sugieren que, cuanto peor sea el comportamiento materialista y de compras compulsivas del individuo, mayor será la propensión a endeudarse. Así como que los que poseen dependientes, no poseen una ocupación, tienen menores niveles de edad, escolaridad y renta familiar son los que presentan mayor propensión al endeudamiento. Entre las variables significativas se destaca el factor de compras compulsivas, demostrando que cuanto mayor el control del comportamiento de compras compulsivas del individuo, menor será su propensión a endeudarse.

  12. CAP payments and agricultural GHG emissions in Italy. A farm-level assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coderoni, Silvia; Esposti, Roberto

    2018-06-15

    The Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) is an important external driver of European agricultural production. Nowadays and in its envisioned future structure post-2020, the CAP has among its major objectives tackling climate change, for what concerns both adaptation and mitigation strategies. However, little is known about the link between past CAP reforms and agricultural greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions. This paper investigates the possible role played by the Fischler Reform (FR) on the agricultural GHG emissions at the farm level. The FR represents a major CAP reform for which data availability allows an ex-post analysis about its actual impacts. The empirical analysis concerns a balanced panel of 6542 Italian Farm Accountancy Data Network observed over years the 2003-2007. Multinomial Logit models are estimated in sequence to express how the farm-level production choices, and the respective emissions, vary over time also in response to CAP expenditure. Results suggest that CAP expenditure had a role in the evolution of the farm-level emissions, though the direction of this effect may differ across farms and deserves further investigation. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. Estrutura do mercado de trabalho metropolitano na Região Sul do Brasil, em 1995 e em 2005

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Armando Vaz Sampaio

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Para melhor compreender as transições que ocorrem no mercado de trabalho, é importante considerar os fluxos de estar empregado, desempregado e fora do mercado de trabalho e as probabilidades envolvidas em função de variáveis socioeconômicas e geográficas. O modelo econométrico utilizado foi o multinomial logit, em que se observou que há diferença de gênero com respeito a estar ocupado e fora do mercado de trabalho, sendo que, para a primeira situação, a probabilidade é maior para o homem e, para a segunda situação, é menor. Verificou-se ainda relação positiva e decrescente entre idade e probabilidade de estar ocupado e relação negativa e decrescente entre idade e possibilidade de estar fora do mercado de trabalho. No que diz respeito à escolaridade, foi encontrada relação positiva sobre a probabilidade de estar ocupado. Ao comparar os anos de 1995 e 2005, verifica-se que a chance de estar desempregado foi maior em 2005.

  14. [Food satisfaction in Mapuche persons in the Metropolitan Region of Santiago, Chile].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schnettler, Berta; Miranda, Horacio; Sepúlveda, José; Denegri, Marianela; Mora, Marcos; Lobos, Germán

    2011-06-01

    Although the study and measurement of satisfaction with life has generated great interest in the last 15 years, there are few works which address satisfaction with food-related life. In order to identify variables which have an influence on satisfaction with food-related life among Mapuche persons, a survey was applied to 400 Mapuche subjects in the Santiago Metropolitan Region, Chile. The scales evaluated in the questionnaire included: SWFL (Satisfaction with Food-related Life), lifestyles, food, and Mapuche acculturation. It was found that 41.0% were extremely satisfied, 40.5% satisfied, 17.2% somewhat satisfied and 1.2% dissatisfied with their food-related life. To identify variables which have an influence on satisfaction with food, an ordinal multinomial logit model was proposed, which was significant (p Mapuche foods, is aged 55 or more, consumes red meat in moderation, consumes foods without additives, try to balance work and private life, does not read the labels of products, and if he/she had Mapuche friends at school. Thus satisfaction with food-related life in Mapuche persons in the Metropolitan Region is related to demographic variables, expenditure on food, consumption of Mapuche foods and life-style.

  15. Mobilidade ocupacional no Brasil: uma análise das chances de mobilidade e inserção ocupacional segundo a origem, a cor e a situação de migração e não-migração para homens chefes do domicílio (1988-1996

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lygia Gonçalves Costa

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Our goal in this article is twofold. Firstly, we present a short overview of theoretical and empirical studies about social stratification and mobility in Brazil. Secondly, we analyze mobility and occupational insertion chances according to origin, color and various migrational status such as migrants from the Northeast Region to the Southeast Region, non-migrants from the Northeast Region and non-migrants from the Southeast Region. The Logit Multinomial model is used for the hypothesis test where the relative chances for occupational insertion of the various migration groups were analyzed. We use the same occupational classes as the ones used by Erikson, Goldthorpe and Portocarrero (EGP (Erikson et al., 1979, also the same as in the classical mobility study 'The Constant Flux' (Erikson and Goldthorpe, 1993, only adapting the self-employed category to the Brazilian reality. By the lack of recent data we only analyze the last two editions of the "National Sample Survey of Households" (Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios - PNAD/IBGE 1988 and 1996.

  16. How much do incentives affect car purchase? Agent-based microsimulation of consumer choice of new cars-Part I: Model structure, simulation of bounded rationality, and model validation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mueller, Michel G.; Haan, Peter de

    2009-01-01

    This article presents an agent-based microsimulation capable of forecasting the effects of policy levers that influence individual choices of new passenger cars. The fundamental decision-making units are households distinguished by sociodemographic characteristics and car ownership. A two-stage model of individual decision processes is employed. In the first stage, individual choice sets are constructed using simple, non-compensatory rules that are based on previously owned cars. Second, decision makers evaluate alternatives in their individual choice set using a multi-attributive weighting rule. The attribute weights are based on a multinomial logit model for cross-country policy analysis in European countries. Additionally, prospect theory and the notion of mental accounting are used to model the perception of monetary values. The microsimulation forecasts actual market observations with high accuracy, both on the level of aggregate market characteristics as well as on a highly resolved level of distributions of market shares. The presented approach is useful for the assessment of policies that influence individual purchase decisions of new passenger cars; it allows accounting for a highly resolved car fleet and differentiated consumer segments. As a result, the complexity of incentive schemes can be represented and detailed structural changes can be investigated

  17. How much do incentives affect car purchase? Agent-based microsimulation of consumer choice of new cars. Part 1. Model structure, simulation of bounded rationality, and model validation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mueller, Michel G.; Haan, Peter de [ETH Zurich, Institute for Environmental Decisions, Natural and Social Science Interface, Universitaetstr. 22, CHN J 73.2, 8092 Zurich (Switzerland)

    2009-03-15

    This article presents an agent-based microsimulation capable of forecasting the effects of policy levers that influence individual choices of new passenger cars. The fundamental decision-making units are households distinguished by sociodemographic characteristics and car ownership. A two-stage model of individual decision processes is employed. In the first stage, individual choice sets are constructed using simple, non-compensatory rules that are based on previously owned cars. Second, decision makers evaluate alternatives in their individual choice set using a multi-attributive weighting rule. The attribute weights are based on a multinomial logit model for cross-country policy analysis in European countries. Additionally, prospect theory and the notion of mental accounting are used to model the perception of monetary values. The microsimulation forecasts actual market observations with high accuracy, both on the level of aggregate market characteristics as well as on a highly resolved level of distributions of market shares. The presented approach is useful for the assessment of policies that influence individual purchase decisions of new passenger cars; it allows accounting for a highly resolved car fleet and differentiated consumer segments. As a result, the complexity of incentive schemes can be represented and detailed structural changes can be investigated. (author)

  18. How much do incentives affect car purchase? Agent-based microsimulation of consumer choice of new cars-Part I: Model structure, simulation of bounded rationality, and model validation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mueller, Michel G. [ETH Zurich, Institute for Environmental Decisions, Natural and Social Science Interface, Universitaetstr. 22, CHN J 73.2, 8092 Zurich (Switzerland); Haan, Peter de [ETH Zurich, Institute for Environmental Decisions, Natural and Social Science Interface, Universitaetstr. 22, CHN J 73.2, 8092 Zurich (Switzerland)], E-mail: peter.dehaan@env.ethz.ch

    2009-03-15

    This article presents an agent-based microsimulation capable of forecasting the effects of policy levers that influence individual choices of new passenger cars. The fundamental decision-making units are households distinguished by sociodemographic characteristics and car ownership. A two-stage model of individual decision processes is employed. In the first stage, individual choice sets are constructed using simple, non-compensatory rules that are based on previously owned cars. Second, decision makers evaluate alternatives in their individual choice set using a multi-attributive weighting rule. The attribute weights are based on a multinomial logit model for cross-country policy analysis in European countries. Additionally, prospect theory and the notion of mental accounting are used to model the perception of monetary values. The microsimulation forecasts actual market observations with high accuracy, both on the level of aggregate market characteristics as well as on a highly resolved level of distributions of market shares. The presented approach is useful for the assessment of policies that influence individual purchase decisions of new passenger cars; it allows accounting for a highly resolved car fleet and differentiated consumer segments. As a result, the complexity of incentive schemes can be represented and detailed structural changes can be investigated.

  19. Differential Role of Self-Congruity in the Consideration and Choice of a Store

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    André Carlos Martins Menck

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The variable measuring the matching/mismatching between a shopper's self-image and the image he/she has of the personality of a store—self-congruity—has deserved attention in the literature, but limited to single-phased decision models. This research extends the investigation to a two-phased decision model, and finds support for the idea that self-congruity has an explanatory role on store consideration probability. Also, no statistical evidence was found that it helps explaining choice probability among stores in the consideration set. The results were obtained by binary and multinomial logit models, permitting the assessment of the relative explanatory importance of the variable, in relation to other variables whose importance in explaining behavior have long been established. A discussion on the differential effects of the shopping situation on the role played by the explanatory variables on considering and choice probabilities was also done and empirical support was found for shopping situation-dependency.

  20. Farm Level Adaptation to Climate Change: The Case of Farmer's in the Ethiopian Highlands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gebrehiwot, Tagel; van der Veen, Anne

    2013-07-01

    In Ethiopia, climate change and associated risks are expected to have serious consequences for agriculture and food security. This in turn will seriously impact on the welfare of the people, particularly the rural farmers whose main livelihood depends on rain-fed agriculture. The level of impacts will mainly depend on the awareness and the level of adaptation in response to the changing climate. It is thus important to understand the role of the different factors that influence farmers' adaptation to ensure the development of appropriate policy measures and the design of successful development projects. This study examines farmers' perception of change in climatic attributes and the factors that influence farmers' choice of adaptation measures to climate change and variability. The estimated results from the climate change adaptation models indicate that level of education, age and wealth of the head of the household; access to credit and agricultural services; information on climate, and temperature all influence farmers' choices of adaptation. Moreover, lack of information on adaptation measures and lack of finance are seen as the main factors inhibiting adaptation to climate change. These conclusions were obtained with a Multinomial logit model, employing the results from a survey of 400 smallholder farmers in three districts in Tigray, northern Ethiopian.

  1. Smallholder farmer’s perceived effects of climate change on crop production and household livelihoods in rural Limpopo province, South Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ubisi Nomcebo R.

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This study investigated the perceived effects of climate change on crop production and household livelihoods of smallholder farmers in Mopani and Vhembe district, South Africa. Data was collected through a questionnaire administered to 150 smallholder farmers. The questionnaires were complemented by 8 focus group discussions and secondary data. Multinomial logit regression model was used to analyse the factors influencing smallholder farmers’ choice of climate change adaptation strategies. The study findings revealed that subsistence farmers perceived prolonged droughts (56.4% as the main shock stressing crop production. Droughts often lead to low crop yield and high crop failure (73.3%. In response to the prevailing climatic conditions different gender adopted different strategies, 41% of female farmers adapted by changing planting dates, while male farmers employed crop variety and diversification (35% and mixed cropping (15%. The smallholder farmers were vulnerable with limited adaptive capacity to withstand climate change due to compromised social, human, physical, natural and financial assets. The results showed that smallholder farmers tend to adapt better when they have access to extension officers (P<0.01. Therefore, it is important for the government to strengthen the relationship between smallholder farmers and extension officers for better climate change adaptation.

  2. An Optimal Hierarchical Decision Model for a Regional Logistics Network with Environmental Impact Consideration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Dezhi; Li, Shuangyan

    2014-01-01

    This paper proposes a new model of simultaneous optimization of three-level logistics decisions, for logistics authorities, logistics operators, and logistics users, for regional logistics network with environmental impact consideration. The proposed model addresses the interaction among the three logistics players in a complete competitive logistics service market with CO2 emission charges. We also explicitly incorporate the impacts of the scale economics of the logistics park and the logistics users' demand elasticity into the model. The logistics authorities aim to maximize the total social welfare of the system, considering the demand of green logistics development by two different methods: optimal location of logistics nodes and charging a CO2 emission tax. Logistics operators are assumed to compete with logistics service fare and frequency, while logistics users minimize their own perceived logistics disutility given logistics operators' service fare and frequency. A heuristic algorithm based on the multinomial logit model is presented for the three-level decision model, and a numerical example is given to illustrate the above optimal model and its algorithm. The proposed model provides a useful tool for modeling competitive logistics services and evaluating logistics policies at the strategic level. PMID:24977209

  3. Effects of payment changes on trends in post-acute care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buntin, Melinda Beeuwkes; Colla, Carrie Hoverman; Escarce, José J

    2009-08-01

    To test how the implementation of new Medicare post-acute payment systems affected the use of inpatient rehabilitation facilities (IRFs), skilled nursing facilities (SNFs), and home health agencies. Medicare acute hospital, IRF, and SNF claims; provider of services file; enrollment file; and Area Resource File data. We used multinomial logit models to measure realized access to post-acute care and to predict how access to alternative sites of care changed in response to prospective payment systems. A file was constructed linking data for elderly Medicare patients discharged from acute care facilities between 1996 and 2003 with a diagnosis of hip fracture, stroke, or lower extremity joint replacement. Although the effects of the payment systems on the use of post-acute care varied, most reduced the use of the site of care they directly affected and boosted the use of alternative sites of care. Payment system changes do not appear to have differentially affected the severely ill. Payment system incentives play a significant role in determining where Medicare beneficiaries receive their post-acute care. Changing these incentives results in shifting of patients between post-acute sites.

  4. Advances in nonmarket valuation econometrics: Spatial heterogeneity in hedonic pricing models and preference heterogeneity in stated preference models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoo, Jin Woo

    In my 1st essay, the study explores Pennsylvania residents. willingness to pay for development of renewable energy technologies such as solar power, wind power, biomass electricity, and other renewable energy using a choice experiment method. Principle component analysis identified 3 independent attitude components that affect the variation of preference, a desire for renewable energy and environmental quality and concern over cost. The results show that urban residents have a higher desire for environmental quality and concern less about cost than rural residents and consequently have a higher willingness to pay to increase renewable energy production. The results of sub-sample analysis show that a representative respondent in rural (urban) Pennsylvania is willing to pay 3.8(5.9) and 4.1(5.7)/month for increasing the share of Pennsylvania electricity generated from wind power and other renewable energy by 1 percent point, respectively. Mean WTP for solar and biomass electricity was not significantly different from zero. In my second essay, heterogeneity of individual WTP for various renewable energy technologies is investigated using several different variants of the multinomial logit model: a simple MNL with interaction terms, a latent class choice model, a random parameter mixed logit choice model, and a random parameter-latent class choice model. The results of all models consistently show that respondents. preference for individual renewable technology is heterogeneous, but the degree of heterogeneity differs for different renewable technologies. In general, the random parameter logit model with interactions and a hybrid random parameter logit-latent class model fit better than other models and better capture respondents. heterogeneity of preference for renewable energy. The impact of the land under agricultural conservation easement (ACE) contract on the values of nearby residential properties is investigated using housing sales data in two Pennsylvania

  5. Improving navigability on the Kromme River Estuary: A choice ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2013-03-14

    Mar 14, 2013 ... logit model, random parameters logit model. INTRODUCTION .... tives, is treated by the RUM as a stochastic, utility-maximising choice (Louviere et ..... comparable to the one estimated for a linear regression model. (the ones ...

  6. Access to and Competition Between Airports: A Case Study for the San Francisco Bay Area

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pels, E.; Nijkamp, P.; Rietveld, P.

    2003-01-01

    In this paper (nested) logit models that describe the combined access mode-airport-choice are estimated. A three level nested logit model is rejected. A two level nested logit model with the airport choice at the top level and the access mode choice at the lower level is preferred. From the

  7. Accounting for Scale Heterogeneity in Healthcare-Related Discrete Choice Experiments when Comparing Stated Preferences: A Systematic Review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wright, Stuart J; Vass, Caroline M; Sim, Gene; Burton, Michael; Fiebig, Denzil G; Payne, Katherine

    2018-02-28

    Scale heterogeneity, or differences in the error variance of choices, may account for a significant amount of the observed variation in the results of discrete choice experiments (DCEs) when comparing preferences between different groups of respondents. The aim of this study was to identify if, and how, scale heterogeneity has been addressed in healthcare DCEs that compare the preferences of different groups. A systematic review identified all healthcare DCEs published between 1990 and February 2016. The full-text of each DCE was then screened to identify studies that compared preferences using data generated from multiple groups. Data were extracted and tabulated on year of publication, samples compared, tests for scale heterogeneity, and analytical methods to account for scale heterogeneity. Narrative analysis was used to describe if, and how, scale heterogeneity was accounted for when preferences were compared. A total of 626 healthcare DCEs were identified. Of these 199 (32%) aimed to compare the preferences of different groups specified at the design stage, while 79 (13%) compared the preferences of groups identified at the analysis stage. Of the 278 included papers, 49 (18%) discussed potential scale issues, 18 (7%) used a formal method of analysis to account for scale between groups, and 2 (1%) accounted for scale differences between preference groups at the analysis stage. Scale heterogeneity was present in 65% (n = 13) of studies that tested for it. Analytical methods to test for scale heterogeneity included coefficient plots (n = 5, 2%), heteroscedastic conditional logit models (n = 6, 2%), Swait and Louviere tests (n = 4, 1%), generalised multinomial logit models (n = 5, 2%), and scale-adjusted latent class analysis (n = 2, 1%). Scale heterogeneity is a prevalent issue in healthcare DCEs. Despite this, few published DCEs have discussed such issues, and fewer still have used formal methods to identify and account for the impact of scale

  8. Skilled immigrant labour: country of origin and the occupational locations of male engineers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas, Derrick

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available EnglishDo high skill immigrant workers find employment corresponding to theirtraining? Using unpublished data from the 1996 census, we examine the occupational locations of menage 30-54 who have a university degree with a major in engineering. We focus on three groups: Canadianborn, foreign born who immigrated before age 19 and the foreign-born arriving after age 27... We findbirth place differences in the percentages who are working in managerial, engineering, technical andall other occupations, with differences being most pronounced for those immigrating after age 27.Multinomial logit analysis confirms that these differences cannot be attributed to differences inmeasured human capital stock. Accreditation requirements are one likely explanation, particularly forthose who have received training outside Canada.FrenchLes immigrants hautement qualifiés trouvent-ils de l'emploi correspondant r leur formation? R l'aide de données non publiées du Recensement de 1996, nous examinons la situation professionnelle des hommes de 30?54 ans qui ont un grade universitaire avec majeure en génie. Nous nous intéressons r trois groupes : les personnes nées au Canada, les personnes nées à l'étranger qui ont immigré avant 19 ans et les personnes nées à l'étranger arrivées après 27 ans, partant du principe que les deux premiers groupes sont très susceptibles d'avoir fait leurs études au Canada, au contraire du dernier groupe. Nous observons des différences de lieu de naissance au niveau des pourcentages de ceux qui occupent des postes de direction, en génie, en technique et dans l'qui ont immigré après l'âge de 27 ans. L'analyse multinomiale des logits confirme que ces différences ne peuvent être attribuées à des différences du stock de capital humain mesuré. Les exigences d'accréditation sont une explication probable, particulièrement pour ceux qui ont acquis leur formation à l'extérieur du Canada.

  9. A predictive model for the utilization of curative ambulatory health services in Mexico Un modelo predictivo de la utilización de servicios de salud ambulatorios curativos en México

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Atanacio Valencia-Mendoza

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVES: To estimate the degree to which individual and household variables jointly predict utilization of curative ambulatory services in Mexico for four types of health providers. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Patient choice of provider (self-care, Ministry of Health, social security, or private provider when they become ill is modeled using a nested multinomial logit model that uses household and individual variables as predictors. The data are from the Mexican National Health Survey conducted in 2000. RESULTS: Being a social security beneficiary is one of the most important predictors of utilization. A strong positive relationship between socio-economic status (SES and demand for services was also found, with the strongest relationship being for private providers, followed by social security. Utilization of Ministry of Health (MoH services was negatively associated with household SES. CONCLUSIONS: Expansion of health insurance coverage should significantly reduce health inequalities due to reduced care-seeking by non-beneficiaries.OBJETIVO: Estimar el grado en el cual variables individuales, del hogar y comunitarias predicen la utilización de servicios ambulatorios curativos en México. MATERIAL Y MÉTODOS: Ante un problema de salud los individuos pueden elegir utilizar servicios médicos, servicios de la Secretaría de Salud (SSa, de la Seguridad Social (SS o Privados (SP. Esta elección es modelada con datos de la ENSA 2000 mediante un modelo logístico multinomial anidado. RESULTADOS: El predictor más importante de la utilización de servicios de salud fue la derechohabiencia a la SS. Se encontró una fuerte relación positiva entre estatus socioeconómico (ESE y la utilización de servicios de salud. Dicha relación es mayor para la utilización de SP, seguida de la SS. Se encontró una relación negativa entre el ESE y la utilización de servicios de la SSa. CONCLUSIÓN: Expandir la cobertura de aseguramiento reduciría significativamente

  10. C, B, R, or N: The Influence of Related Industry on Terrorists’ Choice in Unconventional Weapons

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicole Alexandra Tishler

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available This study explores which factors, given that a terrorist has crossed the threshold over conventional weapons and into using unconventional ones such as chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear (CBRN, will determine the likelihood that he/she chooses to use C, B, R, or N weapons. Relying primarily on data from the incident-based Monterey WMD Database, it employs multinomial logit regression with C, B, R, or N as a categorical dependent variable: a first within the relevant econometric literature. Fundamentally, the study tests the widely-held—although empirically unsubstantiated—technological deterministic assumption that the more readily CBRN technology, materials, and knowledge are accessible to terrorists, the more likely terrorists will be to use unconventional weapons of the corresponding kind: a relationship hypothesized to be stronger for serious attack perpetrators than for hoaxers. Next, the study tests the notion of a continuum of proliferation potential, hypothesizing that as states’ regulatory capacity increases, biological terrorism will be most likely and nuclear terrorism will be least likely. Finally, the study assesses variables that have previously been proven as significant determinants of CBRN over conventional terrorism, to provide the groundwork for future evaluation of the extent to which terrorists may be induced to pursue C, B, R, or N over conventional weapons. Cette étude explore les facteurs, en supposant qu'un terroriste ait franchi le seuil des armes traditionnelles en utilisant des armes non traditionnelles comme les armes chimiques, biologiques, radiologiques et nucléaires (CBRN, qui détermineront la possibilité qu'il/elle choisisse d'utiliser les armes C, B, R ou N. En s'appuyant sur des données primaires de la base de données Monterey WMD, elle se sert d'une régression logit multinomial avec C, B, R ou N comme une variante dépendante catégorique : il s'agit d'une première pour la

  11. Analysing the Severity and Frequency of Traffic Crashes in Riyadh City Using Statistical Models

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    Saleh Altwaijri

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Traffic crashes in Riyadh city cause losses in the form of deaths, injuries and property damages, in addition to the pain and social tragedy affecting families of the victims. In 2005, there were a total of 47,341 injury traffic crashes occurred in Riyadh city (19% of the total KSA crashes and 9% of those crashes were severe. Road safety in Riyadh city may have been adversely affected by: high car ownership, migration of people to Riyadh city, high daily trips reached about 6 million, high rate of income, low-cost of petrol, drivers from different nationalities, young drivers and tremendous growth in population which creates a high level of mobility and transport activities in the city. The primary objective of this paper is therefore to explore factors affecting the severity and frequency of road crashes in Riyadh city using appropriate statistical models aiming to establish effective safety policies ready to be implemented to reduce the severity and frequency of road crashes in Riyadh city. Crash data for Riyadh city were collected from the Higher Commission for the Development of Riyadh (HCDR for a period of five years from 1425H to 1429H (roughly corresponding to 2004-2008. Crash data were classified into three categories: fatal, serious-injury and slight-injury. Two nominal response models have been developed: a standard multinomial logit model (MNL and a mixed logit model to injury-related crash data. Due to a severe underreporting problem on the slight injury crashes binary and mixed binary logistic regression models were also estimated for two categories of severity: fatal and serious crashes. For frequency, two count models such as Negative Binomial (NB models were employed and the unit of analysis was 168 HAIs (wards in Riyadh city. Ward-level crash data are disaggregated by severity of the crash (such as fatal and serious injury crashes. The results from both multinomial and binary response models are found to be fairly consistent but

  12. Patient preferences for outcomes of depression treatment in Germany: a choice-based conjoint analysis study.

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    Zimmermann, Thomas M; Clouth, Johannes; Elosge, Michael; Heurich, Matthias; Schneider, Edith; Wilhelm, Stefan; Wolfrath, Anette

    2013-06-01

    In general, treatment efficacy in depressed patients is evaluated mainly based on the core symptoms of depression. However, patients might consider different outcomes. This study used choice-based conjoint analysis (CBC) to evaluate patient preferences for depression treatment outcomes. Adult subjects from Germany, currently or previously on antidepressant treatment, were presented with 18 pairs of hypothetical treatment outcome scenarios, differing in eight attributes (2-3 factor levels each): depressed mood, loss of interest and enjoyment, loss of energy/fatigue, sleep disturbance, feelings of guilt, depression-related pain, treatment duration, side effects after 2 weeks. Attributes and factor levels were defined by literature review, expert consultations, and in-depth subject interviews. Data were analyzed using multinomial logit modeling; individual part-worth utilities were estimated using hierarchical Bayes routines. Two hundred twenty-seven subjects (89.4% currently treated with antidepressants, 30.0% with depression-related pain) completed the survey. They valued the relative importance of outcomes as follows: loss of energy/fatigue 18.5%, side effects after 2 weeks 14.2%, loss of interest and enjoyment 13.5%, depression-related pain 12.0%, sleep disturbance 12.0%, feelings of guilt 11.5%, treatment duration 9.9%, depressed mood 8.5%. Participants were not required to meet ICD-10 or DSM-IV criteria for depression and had heterogeneous disease severity. CBC analysis was able to reveal patient preferences for outcomes of depression treatment. Subjects valued the ability to cope with activities of everyday living highest. They considered being free of depression-related pain and side effects more important than being free of depressed mood. These findings should be considered when making treatment decisions. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. Aspects of research and development contract terms in the bio/pharmaceutical sector.

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    Banerjee, Tannista

    2012-01-01

    The cost of new drug development is increasing every year. Pharmaceutical companies use R&D joint ventures, mergers, and outsource different stages of pharmaceutical R&D activities for a faster and cost minimizing method of innovation. Pharmaceutical companies outsource R&D activities to independent small biotech or pharmaceutical companies that specialize in different stages of pharmaceutical R&D. This chapter examines the determinants of the payment structure of research contracts between large bio/pharmaceutical companies and specialized research firms. Determinants of R&D contracts are analyzed using detailed R&D contract data between bio/pharmaceutical companies and independent research firms for 10 years. A multinomial logit model is used in order to understand the determinants of three different types of contracts; royalty contracts, fixed payment contracts, and the mixed contracts. Under uncertainty, the likelihood of a royalty contract rises for the early stages of the research and with the patent stock of the research firm. It is more likely to observe both royalty and fixed payment if the pharmaceutical client has past contracts with the same research firm. The results also suggest that if Food and Drug Administration (FDA) is more stringent in any disease area in reviewing the new drug application, then the likelihood of signing pure royalty contract decreases. Understanding the nature of R&D contracts and the effects of FDA's behavior on the pharmaceutical R&D contract is important because these contracts not only affect the cost of new drug invention but also the quality and the rate of invention. VALUE: Results are useful for both the pharmaceutical companies and the economic/business researchers.

  14. Factors affecting food choices of older adults from high and low socioeconomic groups: a discrete choice experiment.

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    Kamphuis, Carlijn B M; de Bekker-Grob, Esther W; van Lenthe, Frank J

    2015-04-01

    Healthiness, price, and convenience are typically indicated as important motives for food choices; however, it is largely unknown to what extent older adults from high and low socioeconomic groups differ in these underlying motives. A discrete choice experiment (DCE) is an innovative way to elicit implicit motives for food choices. The aim was to investigate differences in food motives between socioeconomic groups by means of a DCE. A DCE was carried out during a face-to-face interview among older adults as part of the Health and Living Conditions in Eindhoven and surrounding cities (GLOBE) cohort study, The Netherlands. Participants (n = 399; mean age: 63.3 y) were offered a series of choice sets about a usual dinner at home and were asked to choose in each choice set between 2 meals and an opt-out choice, with different combinations of attribute levels. We included 5 meal attributes (taste, healthiness, preparation time, travel time to shops, and price) and 3 or 4 levels for each attribute. Data were analyzed by multinomial logit models. Healthiness, taste, price, and travel time to the grocery store proved to significantly influence older adults' meal decisions; preparation time was not significant. Healthiness was the most important attribute for all of the participants. More highly educated participants rated a healthy and less expensive meal to be more important than did less educated participants. Those with a high income rated a meal that was healthy and very tasteful to be more important than did those with a lower income. Healthiness, taste, price, and travel time to grocery shops influenced older adults' meal decisions. Higher socioeconomic groups valued health more than did lower socioeconomic groups. DCEs represent a promising method to gain insight into the relative importance of motives for food choices. This trial was registered at www.isrctn.com as ISRCTN60293770. © 2015 American Society for Nutrition.

  15. MARKET DECISION PREFERENCES OF DAIRY FARMERS TOWARDS TRADITIONAL AND MODERN CHANNELS OF MILK MARKETING: AN EVIDENCE FROM PUNJAB PROVINCE OF PAKISTAN

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    Mazhir Nadeem Ishaq

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available This study was specifically conducted in the four districts of Punjab province of Pakistan. The principal objective was to identify major explanatory variables that might influence dairy farmers’ market participation decisions regarding the selection of traditional and modern channels of milk marketing. Data was collected from field survey and the sample size comprised of 320 dairy farmers, randomly selected from study area. Multinomial logit model was used an econometric tool to estimate the impacts of fourteen independent variables on the dependent variable (selection of milk marketing channel. Model results showed that eight factors like gender, old aged farmers, long distance between dairy farm and urban market, easy milk selling at door step, advance cash payment, lack of quality inspection, strong social relationship with milk collectors, and better milk price were important predictors influencing milk producers to choose traditional channels for the sale of their milk produce. Impacts of these variables were significant at 5% of significance level except long distance which was significant at 1%. Conversely to this, fourfactors such as high education level of dairy farmers, large herd size, provision of extension services, and purchase of evening milk were motivating dairy farmers to sell milk through modern channels. Traditional milk channels were preferred by majority of milk producers but these channels were lacking in delivering the quality milk to consumers. Policy implication for sustainable milk marketing might be the provision of dairy advisory services, advance payment framework, improving logistic infrastructure, and enforcement of milk quality inspection could ensure milk safety along sustainable milk supply.

  16. Application of an almost ideal demand system (AIDS) to Ethiopian rural residential energy use: Panel data evidence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guta, Dawit Diriba

    2012-01-01

    It is well known that poor rural households in low-income economies are reliant on traditional fuels to meet basic domestic energy needs, but little is known about the specific underlying socio-economic drivers of residential fuel choices in Ethiopia. I used the linear approximation almost ideal demand system (LAAIDS) with normalized prices to compute expenditure elasticity and a multinomial logit model (MLM) to examine household fuel use. The LAAIDS model result showed that expenditure was elastic for modern fuels, but inelastic for traditional fuels. Regression results from the MLM indicated that fuel choice behaviour of rural households could be more accurately described as ‘fuel stacking’ behaviour as opposed to the ‘energy ladder’ hypothesis. In rural areas household fuel choice may be constrained by limited access to commercial fuels and efficient cook stoves, supply dependency and affordability, consumer preferences and a web of other intricate factors. Rural households had less incentive for fuel switching due to underlying factors and the availability of fuel wood without direct financial cost. With continued deforestation and receding forests, households are expected to develop inter fuel substitution and switching behaviour conditional on access to modern energy technologies. - Highlights: ► Two step LAAIDS model and MLM were applied to analysis of residential fuel use. ► I examined issues of ‘energy ladder’ versus ‘fuel stacking’ behavior of households. ► Controlling other factors increase in welfare increases demand for modern fuel. ► Traditional fuels are income inelastic but not necessarily cheaper. ► Residential fuel choice is determined by intricate web of socio-economic factors.

  17. PROVIDER CHOICE FOR OUTPATIENT HEALTH CARE SERVICES IN INDONESIA: THE ROLE OF HEALTH INSURANCE

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    Budi Hidayat

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Background: Indonesian's health care system is characterized by underutilized of the health-care infrastructure. One of the ways to improve the demand for formal health care is through health insurance. Responding to this potentially effective policy leads the Government of Indonesia to expand health insurance coverage by enacting the National Social Security Act in 2004. In this particular issue, understanding provider choice is therefore a key to address the broader policy question as to how the current low uptake of health care services could be turned in to an optimal utilization. Objective:To estimate a model of provider choice for outpatient care in Indonesia with specific attention being paid to the role of health insurance. Methods: A total of 16485 individuals were obtained from the second wave of the Indonesian Family Life survey. A multinomial logit regression model was applied to a estimate provider choice for outpatient care in three provider alternative (public, private and self-treatment. A policy simulation is reported as to how expanding insurance benefits could change the patterns of provider choice for outpatient health care services. Results: Individuals who are covered by civil servant insurance (Askes are more likely to use public providers, while the beneficiaries of private employees insurance (Jamsostek are more likely to use private ones compared with the uninsured population. The results also reveal that less healthy, unmarried, wealthier and better educated individuals are more likely to choose private providers than public providers. Conclusions: Any efforts to improve access to health care through health insurance will fail if policy-makers do not accommodate peoples' preferences for choosing health care providers. The likely changes in demand from public providers to private ones need to be considered in the current social health insurance reform process, especially in devising premium policies and benefit packages

  18. Intermittent renewable generation and network congestion: an empirical analysis of Italian Power Market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ardian, Faddy; Concettini, Silvia; Creti, Anna

    2015-01-01

    The literature demonstrates the likely reduction of wholesale electricity prices due to a larger penetration of renewable energy sources (RES). When markets are organized as two or more inter-connected sub-markets within a larger power market the final impact of increasing RES production may be less straightforward given the presence of network constraints. We tests this phenomenon by analyzing the impact of RES production on the probability of congestion and on the size of congestion cost in Italy. Using a database with hourly observations for a five year period we estimate two econometric models on five zonal pairings: a multinomial logit model for the occurrence and direction of congestion and a three stage least square model for the size of congestion costs. The analysis suggests that the effect of a larger local wind and solar supply is to decrease the probability of suffering congestion in entry and to increase the probability of causing a congestion in exit compared to no congestion case. Increasing hydroelectric production has a similar effect. These results hold for both importing and exporting regions, but importing regions are less likely to cause congestion in exit, therefore the installation of new RES capacity in these zones may have a positive effects in terms of flow balance between regions. Concerning the cost level, a larger local RES supply seems to push the congestion cost towards negative values as it decreases the marginal cost for balancing the system. This is true for all zones in the case of explicit congestion cost, but it is only verified in importing regions in the case of implicit congestion cost. This result suggests that the increase of RES production should be promoted in importing zones, but the overall growth should be controlled in order to avoid congestion in the opposite direction. (authors)

  19. Assessing rear-end crash potential in urban locations based on vehicle-by-vehicle interactions, geometric characteristics and operational conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dimitriou, Loukas; Stylianou, Katerina; Abdel-Aty, Mohamed A

    2018-03-01

    Rear-end crashes are one of the most frequently occurring crash types, especially in urban networks. An understanding of the contributing factors and their significant association with rear-end crashes is of practical importance and will help in the development of effective countermeasures. The objective of this study is to assess rear-end crash potential at a microscopic level in an urban environment, by investigating vehicle-by-vehicle interactions. To do so, several traffic parameters at the individual vehicle level have been taken into consideration, for capturing car-following characteristics and vehicle interactions, and to investigate their effect on potential rear-end crashes. In this study rear-end crash potential was estimated based on stopping distance between two consecutive vehicles, and four rear-end crash potential cases were developed. The results indicated that 66.4% of the observations were estimated as rear-end crash potentials. It was also shown that rear-end crash potential was presented when traffic flow and speed standard deviation were higher. Also, locational characteristics such as lane of travel and location in the network were found to affect drivers' car following decisions and additionally, it was shown that speeds were lower and headways higher when Heavy Goods Vehicles lead. Finally, a model-based behavioral analysis based on Multinomial Logit regression was conducted to systematically identify the statistically significant variables in explaining rear-end risk potential. The modeling results highlighted the significance of the explanatory variables associated with rear-end crash potential, however it was shown that their effect varied among different model configurations. The outcome of the results can be of significant value for several purposes, such as real-time monitoring of risk potential, allocating enforcement units in urban networks and designing targeted proactive safety policies. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights

  20. Intergenerational Transfers of Preferences for Science Careers in Comparative Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sikora, Joanna; Pokropek, Artur

    2012-11-01

    Using data from 24 countries, which participated in the 2006 Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA), we examine the relationship between parental science employment and students' career expectations. In contrast to prior PISA-based studies, we find that the link between parental employment and adolescent plans to work in science is non-trivial and merits attention. In this context, we consider three versions of the gender socialisation hypothesis. The strong variant posits that girls' plans are shaped solely by their mothers' career pathways while boys model their expectations exclusively on fathers' occupations. The weaker version of this hypothesis expects children to be influenced more by the same-sex than by the opposite-sex parent. Finally, the third possibility is that, as egalitarian ideologies prevail, parents inspire adolescent occupational plans regardless of gender. These hypotheses are assessed separately for student career plans related to biology, agriculture and health (BAH) in contrast to computing, engineering and mathematics (CEM), because the involvement in these fields of science is known to be segregated by gender. Using two-level multinomial logit modelling, we find some support for the weak version of the gender socialisation hypothesis. Although within-family transfers of preferences for science careers vary considerably across countries, we note certain regularities. In many nations, relevant paternal employment enhances sons' interest in science careers regardless of their field. In contrast, maternal employment inspires daughters in fewer countries and this influence tends to be limited to careers in BAH. We discuss the possible implications of these findings for science educators.

  1. STUDI POLA SPASIAL PERSEBARAN GAHARU (Aquilaria spp. DAN KETERKAITANNYA DENGAN KONDISI HABITAT DI TAMAN NASIONAL KUTAI KALIMANTAN TIMUR

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    Didit Okta Pribadi

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Agarwood is an important forest product due to its high economic value. However, the natural population of agarwood species has been decreasing rapidly because of over exploitation, therefore the international trade of the most important agarwood species (i.e. Aquilaria malaccensis is restricted to just a small quota. This research was conducted in an attempt to provide basic information for the conservation of Aquilaria spp. by identifying the species spatial distribution and habitat characteristics and developing a linkage model between their abundance and habitat characteristics. Data were collected through a field survey at Kutai National Park in August 2006 with Aquilaria spp. as the target species. Data on the species localities were used to determine the species densities and the value of Distance Index of Dispersion. The ordinance levels between the target species and the surrounding other species were identified using a correspondence analysis, while the linkage model between the species abundance and habitat characteristics was established using an ordinal multinomial logit model. The results showed that Aquilaria spp. had a low density (0.01/ha and were spatially distributed in a clump pattern. The abundance of Aquilaria species had a close association with soil texture, humidity and acidity, land elevation, air temperature and humidity, and light intensity. The abundance decreased with increasing the proportion of sandy clay loam content, soil humidity and acidity, land elevation, and light intensity. In contrast, the abundance increased with increasing sandy loam content, air temperature and air humidity. The existence of A. malaccensis was likely to associate with the existence of Goniothalamus sp., Macaranga sp., Vordia splendidissima, Lygopodium sp., and Stachyphrynium borneensis.

  2. Patient and nurse preferences for nurse handover-using preferences to inform policy: a discrete choice experiment protocol.

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    Spinks, Jean; Chaboyer, Wendy; Bucknall, Tracey; Tobiano, Georgia; Whitty, Jennifer A

    2015-11-11

    Nursing bedside handover in hospital has been identified as an opportunity to involve patients and promote patient-centred care. It is important to consider the preferences of both patients and nurses when implementing bedside handover to maximise the successful uptake of this policy. We outline a study which aims to (1) identify, compare and contrast the preferences for various aspects of handover common to nurses and patients while accounting for other factors, such as the time constraints of nurses that may influence these preferences.; (2) identify opportunities for nurses to better involve patients in bedside handover and (3) identify patient and nurse preferences that may challenge the full implementation of bedside handover in the acute medical setting. We outline the protocol for a discrete choice experiment (DCE) which uses a survey design common to both patients and nurses. We describe the qualitative and pilot work undertaken to design the DCE. We use a D-efficient design which is informed by prior coefficients collected during the pilot phase. We also discuss the face-to-face administration of this survey in a population of acutely unwell, hospitalised patients and describe how data collection challenges have been informed by our pilot phase. Mixed multinomial logit regression analysis will be used to estimate the final results. This study has been approved by a university ethics committee as well as two participating hospital ethics committees. Results will be used within a knowledge translation framework to inform any strategies that can be used by nursing staff to improve the uptake of bedside handover. Results will also be disseminated via peer-reviewed journal articles and will be presented at national and international conferences. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

  3. Frequency and predictors of psychological distress after a diagnosis of epilepsy: A community-based study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Ying; Hackett, Maree L; Glozier, Nick; Nikpour, Armin; Bleasel, Andrew; Somerville, Ernest; Lawson, John; Jan, Stephen; Hyde, Lorne; Todd, Lisa; Martiniuk, Alexandra; Ireland, Carol; Anderson, Craig S

    2017-10-01

    The objective of the study was to determine the frequency and predictors of psychological distress after a diagnosis of epilepsy. The Sydney Epilepsy Incidence Study to Measure Illness Consequences (SEISMIC) was a prospective, multicenter, community-based study of people of all ages with newly diagnosed epilepsy in Sydney, Australia. Analyses involved multivariate logistic regression and multinomial logit regression to identify predictors of psychological distress, assessed using the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS) and the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ), as part of structured interviews. Psychological distress occurred in 33% (95% confidence interval [CI] 26 to 40%) and 24% (95% CI 18 to 31%) of 180 adults at baseline and 12months, respectively, and 23% (95% CI 14 to 33%) of 77 children at both time points. Thirty adults and 7 children had distress at baseline who recovered at 12months, while 15 adults and 7 children had new onset of distress during this period. History of psychiatric or behavioral disorder (for adults, odds ratio [OR] 6.82, 95% CI 3.08 to 15.10; for children, OR 28.85, 95% CI 2.88 to 288.60) and higher psychosocial disability (adults, OR 1.17, 95% CI 1.07 to 1.27) or lower family functioning (children, OR 1.80, 95% CI 1.08 to 3.02) were associated with psychological distress (C statistics 0.80 and 0.78). Psychological distress is common and fluctuates in frequency after a diagnosis of epilepsy. Those with premorbid psychological, psychosocial, and family problems are at high risk of this adverse outcome. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Seeking treatment for symptomatic malaria in Papua New Guinea

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    Siba Peter

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Malaria places a significant burden on the limited resources of many low income countries. Knowing more about why and where people seek treatment will enable policy makers to better allocate the limited resources. This study aims to better understand what influences treatment-seeking behaviour for malaria in one such low-income country context, Papua New Guinea (PNG. Methods Two culturally, linguistically and demographically different regions in PNG were selected as study sites. A cross sectional household survey was undertaken in both sites resulting in the collection of data on 928 individuals who reported suffering from malaria in the previous four weeks. A probit model was then used to identify the factors determining whether or not people sought treatment for presumptive malaria. Multinomial logit models also assisted in identifying the factors that determined where people sought treatments. Results Results in this study build upon findings from other studies. For example, while distance in PNG has previously been seen as the primary factor in influencing whether any sort of treatment will be sought, in this study cultural influences and whether it was the first, second or even third treatment for a particular episode of malaria were also important. In addition, although formal health care facilities were the most popular treatment sources, it was also found that traditional healers were a common choice. In turn, the reasons why participants chose a particular type of treatment differed according to the whether they were seeking an initial or subsequent treatments. Conclusions Simply bringing health services closer to where people live may not always result in a greater use of formal health care facilities. Policy makers in PNG need to consider within-country variation in treatment-seeking behaviour, the important role of traditional healers and also ensure that the community fully understands the potential implications

  5. Comparison of four statistical and machine learning methods for crash severity prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iranitalab, Amirfarrokh; Khattak, Aemal

    2017-11-01

    Crash severity prediction models enable different agencies to predict the severity of a reported crash with unknown severity or the severity of crashes that may be expected to occur sometime in the future. This paper had three main objectives: comparison of the performance of four statistical and machine learning methods including Multinomial Logit (MNL), Nearest Neighbor Classification (NNC), Support Vector Machines (SVM) and Random Forests (RF), in predicting traffic crash severity; developing a crash costs-based approach for comparison of crash severity prediction methods; and investigating the effects of data clustering methods comprising K-means Clustering (KC) and Latent Class Clustering (LCC), on the performance of crash severity prediction models. The 2012-2015 reported crash data from Nebraska, United States was obtained and two-vehicle crashes were extracted as the analysis data. The dataset was split into training/estimation (2012-2014) and validation (2015) subsets. The four prediction methods were trained/estimated using the training/estimation dataset and the correct prediction rates for each crash severity level, overall correct prediction rate and a proposed crash costs-based accuracy measure were obtained for the validation dataset. The correct prediction rates and the proposed approach showed NNC had the best prediction performance in overall and in more severe crashes. RF and SVM had the next two sufficient performances and MNL was the weakest method. Data clustering did not affect the prediction results of SVM, but KC improved the prediction performance of MNL, NNC and RF, while LCC caused improvement in MNL and RF but weakened the performance of NNC. Overall correct prediction rate had almost the exact opposite results compared to the proposed approach, showing that neglecting the crash costs can lead to misjudgment in choosing the right prediction method. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Australian Public Preferences for the Funding of New Health Technologies: A Comparison of Discrete Choice and Profile Case Best-Worst Scaling Methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whitty, Jennifer A; Ratcliffe, Julie; Chen, Gang; Scuffham, Paul A

    2014-07-01

    Ethical, economic, political, and legitimacy arguments support the consideration of public preferences in health technology decision making. The objective was to assess public preferences for funding new health technologies and to compare a profile case best-worst scaling (BWS) and traditional discrete choice experiment (DCE) method. An online survey consisting of a DCE and BWS task was completed by 930 adults recruited via an Internet panel. Respondents traded between 7 technology attributes. Participation quotas broadly reflected the population of Queensland, Australia, by gender and age. Choice data were analyzed using a generalized multinomial logit model. The findings from both the BWS and DCE were generally consistent in that respondents exhibited stronger preferences for technologies offering prevention or early diagnosis over other benefit types. Respondents also prioritized technologies that benefit younger people, larger numbers of people, those in rural areas, or indigenous Australians; that provide value for money; that have no available alternative; or that upgrade an existing technology. However, the relative preference weights and consequent preference orderings differed between the DCE and BWS models. Further, poor correlation between the DCE and BWS weights was observed. While only a minority of respondents reported difficulty completing either task (22.2% DCE, 31.9% BWS), the majority (72.6%) preferred the DCE over BWS task. This study provides reassurance that many criteria routinely used for technology decision making are considered to be relevant by the public. The findings clearly indicate the perceived importance of prevention and early diagnosis. The dissimilarity observed between DCE and profile case BWS weights is contrary to the findings of previous comparisons and raises uncertainty regarding the comparative merits of these stated preference methods in a priority-setting context. © The Author(s) 2014.

  7. Ecological risk assessment of ecosystem services in the Taihu Lake Basin of China from 1985 to 2020.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Xibao; Yang, Guishan; Tan, Yan; Zhuang, Qianlai; Li, Hengpeng; Wan, Rongrong; Su, Weizhong; Zhang, Jian

    2016-06-01

    There are tremendous theoretical, methodological and policy challenges in evaluating the impact of land-use change on the degradation of ecosystem services (ES) at the regional scale. This study addresses these challenges by developing an interdisciplinary methodology based on the Procedure for Ecological Tiered Assessment of Risk (PETAR). This novel methodology integrates ecological models with a land-use change model. This study quantifies the multi-dimensional degradation risks of ES in the Taihu Lake Basin (TLB) of China from 1985 to 2020. Four key ES related to water purification, water quantity adjustment, carbon sequestration and grain production are selected. The study employs models of Denitrification-Decomposition (DNDC), Soil-Water-Atmosphere-Plant (SWAP), Biome-BGC and Agro-ecological Zoning (AEZ) for assimilations. Land-use changes by 2020 were projected using a geographically weighted multinomial logit-cellular automata (GWML-CA) model. The results show that rapid land-use change has posed a great degradation risk of ES in the region in 1985-2020. Slightly less than two-thirds of the basin experienced degradation of ES over the 1985-2010 period, and about 12% of the basin will continue to experience degradation until 2020. Hot spots with severe deterioration in 2010-2020 are projected to be centered around some small and less developed cities in the region. Regulating accelerated urban sprawl and population growth, reinforcing current environmental programs, and establishing monitoring systems for observing dynamics of regional ES are suggested as practical counter-measures. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. Evaluating and establishing national norms for mental wellbeing using the short Warwick-Edinburgh Mental Well-being Scale (SWEMWBS): findings from the Health Survey for England.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ng Fat, Linda; Scholes, Shaun; Boniface, Sadie; Mindell, Jennifer; Stewart-Brown, Sarah

    2017-05-01

    The Warwick-Edinburgh Mental Well-being Scale (WEMWBS), 14 positively worded statements, is a validated instrument to measure mental wellbeing on a population level. Less is known about the population distribution of the shorter seven-item version (SWEMWBS) or its performance as an instrument to measure wellbeing. Using the Health Survey for England 2010-2013 (n = 27,169 adults aged 16+, nationally representative of the population), age- and sex-specific norms were estimated using means and percentiles. Criterion validity was examined using: (1) Spearman correlations (ρ) for SWEMWBS with General Health Questionnaire (GHQ-12), happiness index, EQ-VAS (2) a multinomial logit model with SWEMWBS (low, medium and high wellbeing) as the outcome and demographic, social and health behaviours as explanatory variables. Relative validity was examined by comparing SWEMWBS with WEMWBS using: (1) Spearman correlations (continuous data), and (2) the weighted kappa statistic (categorical), within population subgroups. Mean (median) SWEMWBS was 23.7 (23.2) for men and 23.2 (23.2) for women (p = 0.100). Spearman correlations were moderately sized for the happiness index (ρ = 0.53, P wellbeing. Participants who binge drank versus non-drinkers were less likely to have high versus medium wellbeing (0.81 (0.71-0.92)). Spearman correlations between SWEMWBS and WEMWBS were above 0.95; weighted kappa statistics showed almost perfect agreement (0.79-0.85). SWEMWBS distinguishes mental wellbeing between subgroups, similarly to WEMWBS, but is less sensitive to gender differences.

  9. Women's Benefits and Harms Trade-Offs in Breast Cancer Screening: Results from a Discrete-Choice Experiment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sicsic, Jonathan; Pelletier-Fleury, Nathalie; Moumjid, Nora

    2018-01-01

    Over the past decade, the benefits and harms balance of breast cancer (BC) screening has been widely debated. To elicit women's trade-offs between the benefits and harms of BC screening and to analyze the main determinants of these trade-offs. A discrete-choice experiment with seven attributes depicting BC screening programs including varying levels of BC mortality, overdiagnosis, and false-positive result was used. Eight hundred twelve women aged 40 to 74 years with no personal history of BC recruited by a survey institute and representative of the French general population (age, socioeconomic level, and geographical location) completed the discrete-choice experiment. Preference heterogeneity was investigated using generalized multinomial logit models from which individual trade-offs were derived, and their main determinants were assessed using generalized linear models. Screening acceptance rates under various benefits and harms ratios were simulated on the basis of the distribution of individual preferences. The women would be willing to accept on average 14.1 overdiagnosis cases (median = 9.6) and 47.8 false-positive results (median = 27.2) to avoid one BC-related death. After accounting for preference heterogeneity, less than 50% of women would be willing to accept 10 overdiagnosis cases for one BC-related death avoided. Screening acceptance rates were higher among women with higher socioeconomic level and lower among women with poor health. Women are sensitive to both the benefits and the harms of BC screening and their preferences are highly heterogeneous. Our study provides useful results for public health authorities and clinicians willing to improve their recommendations of BC screening on the basis of women's preferences. Copyright © 2018 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Com obtenir un Model de Regressió Logística Binària amb SPSS

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    Vanesa Berlanga-Silvente

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Els models de regressió logística són models estadístics en què es desitja conèixer la relació entre: una variable dependent qualitativa dicotòmica (regressió logística binària o binomial i una o més variables explicatives independents, o covariables, ja siguin qualitatives o quantitatives. També és possible una variable dependent qualitativa amb més de dos valors (regressió logística multinomial, encara que en aquesta fitxa ens centrarem en la regressió logística binària. En qualsevol cas, l'equació inicial del model és de tipus exponencial, si bé la seva transformació logarítmica (logit permet el seu ús com una funció lineal. L'objectiu primordial que resol aquesta tècnica és el de modelar com influeixen la probabilitat d'aparició d'un succés, habitualment dicotòmic, la presència o no de diversos factors, i el valor o nivell dels mateixos. Aquesta fitxa sobre la Regressió Logística Binària explica les opcions que té el programa estadístic SPSS (mètodes automàtics "per passos" i la interpretació dels principals resultats.

  11. Evoked emotions predict food choice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dalenberg, Jelle R; Gutjar, Swetlana; Ter Horst, Gert J; de Graaf, Kees; Renken, Remco J; Jager, Gerry

    2014-01-01

    In the current study we show that non-verbal food-evoked emotion scores significantly improve food choice prediction over merely liking scores. Previous research has shown that liking measures correlate with choice. However, liking is no strong predictor for food choice in real life environments. Therefore, the focus within recent studies shifted towards using emotion-profiling methods that successfully can discriminate between products that are equally liked. However, it is unclear how well scores from emotion-profiling methods predict actual food choice and/or consumption. To test this, we proposed to decompose emotion scores into valence and arousal scores using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and apply Multinomial Logit Models (MLM) to estimate food choice using liking, valence, and arousal as possible predictors. For this analysis, we used an existing data set comprised of liking and food-evoked emotions scores from 123 participants, who rated 7 unlabeled breakfast drinks. Liking scores were measured using a 100-mm visual analogue scale, while food-evoked emotions were measured using 2 existing emotion-profiling methods: a verbal and a non-verbal method (EsSense Profile and PrEmo, respectively). After 7 days, participants were asked to choose 1 breakfast drink from the experiment to consume during breakfast in a simulated restaurant environment. Cross validation showed that we were able to correctly predict individualized food choice (1 out of 7 products) for over 50% of the participants. This number increased to nearly 80% when looking at the top 2 candidates. Model comparisons showed that evoked emotions better predict food choice than perceived liking alone. However, the strongest predictive strength was achieved by the combination of evoked emotions and liking. Furthermore we showed that non-verbal food-evoked emotion scores more accurately predict food choice than verbal food-evoked emotions scores.

  12. Eliciting preferences for waterpipe tobacco smoking using a discrete choice experiment: implications for product regulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salloum, Ramzi G; Maziak, Wasim; Hammond, David; Nakkash, Rima; Islam, Farahnaz; Cheng, Xi; Thrasher, James F

    2015-09-09

    Waterpipe smoking is highly prevalent among university students, and has been increasing in popularity despite mounting evidence showing it is harmful to health. The aim of this study was to measure preferences for waterpipe smoking and determine which product characteristics are most important to smokers. A large university in the Southeastern USA. Adult waterpipe smokers attending the university (N=367). Participants completed an Internet-based discrete choice experiment to reveal their preferences for, and trade-offs between, the attributes of hypothetical waterpipe smoking sessions. Participants were presented with waterpipe lounge menus, each with three fruit-flavoured options and one tobacco flavoured option, in addition to an opt out option. Nicotine content and price were provided for each choice. Participants were randomised to either receive menus with a text-only health-warning message or no message. Multinomial and nested logit models were used to estimate the impact on consumer choice of attributes and between-subject assignment of health warnings respectively. On average, participants preferred fruit-flavoured varieties to tobacco flavour. They were averse to options labelled with higher nicotine content. Females and non-smokers of cigarettes were more likely than their counterparts to prefer flavoured and nicotine-free varieties. Participants exposed to a health warning were more likely to opt out. Fruit-flavoured tobacco and lower nicotine content labels, two strategies widely used by the industry, increase the demand for waterpipe smoking among young adults. Waterpipe-specific regulation should limit the availability of flavoured waterpipe tobacco and require accurate labelling of constituents. Waterpipe-specific tobacco control regulation, along with research to inform policy, is required to curb this emerging public health threat. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence

  13. Are AMI patients with comorbid mental illness more likely to be admitted to hospitals with lower quality of AMI care?

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    Xueya Cai

    Full Text Available Older patients with comorbid mental illness are shown to receive less appropriate care for their medical conditions. This study analyzed Medicare patients hospitalized for acute myocardial infarction (AMI and determined whether those with comorbid mental illness were more likely to present to hospitals with lower quality of AMI care.Retrospective analyses of Medicare claims in 2008. Hospital quality was measured using the five "Hospital Compare" process indicators (aspirin at admission/discharge, beta-blocker at admission/discharge, and angiotension-converting enzyme inhibitor or angiotension receptor blocker for left ventricular dysfunction. Multinomial logit model determined the association of mental illness with admission to low-quality hospitals (rank of the composite process score 90(th percentile, compared to admissions to other hospitals with medium quality. Multivariate analyses further determined the effects of hospital type and mental diagnosis on outcomes.Among all AMI admissions to 2,845 hospitals, 41,044 out of 287,881 patients were diagnosed with mental illness. Mental illness predicted a higher likelihood of admission to low-quality hospitals (unadjusted rate 2.9% vs. 2.0%; adjusted odds ratio [OR]1.25, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.17-1.34, p<0.01, and an equal likelihood to high-quality hospitals (unadjusted rate 9.8% vs. 10.3%; adjusted OR 0.97, 95% CI 0.93-1.01, p = 0.11. Both lower hospital quality and mental diagnosis predicted higher rates of 30-day readmission, 30-day mortality, and 1-year mortality.Among Medicare myocardial infarction patients, comorbid mental illness was associated with an increased risk for admission to lower-quality hospitals. Both lower hospital quality and mental illness predicted worse post-AMI outcomes.

  14. Physical Fitness, Physical Activity, Sedentary Behavior, or Diet-What Are the Correlates of Obesity in Polish School Children?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Czyż, Stanisław H; Toriola, Abel L; Starościak, Wojciech; Lewandowski, Marek; Paul, Yvonne; Oyeyemi, Adewale L

    2017-06-20

    There is substantial evidence of rising prevalence of overweight and obesity and its co-morbidities among children in western-high income developed countries. In the European Union, the prevalence of overweight and obesity is increasing fastest among Polish children. Yet, there is paucity of evidence on the relationship of behavioral factors with body weight status of children in Poland. This study examined the association of obesity with physical fitness, physical activity, sedentary behavior and diet among Polish children. A total of 641 children (10-15 years) recruited from the Lower Silesia region of Poland participated in this cross-sectional study. Participants' anthropometrics, physical fitness, physical activity, sedentary behavior and dietary intake were assessed. Outcome variables were weight categories (according to body mass index [BMI], waist-to-hip ratio [WHR], and percentage body fat [% BF]). The strongest negative correlation was found between VO₂max and %BF ( r = -0.39, p <0.05). Significant negative correlation was also found between VO₂max and weight categories ( r = -0.15). Results of the multinomial logit analysis showed that VO₂max increased in groups of overweight, normal weight and underweight children by 13%, 26% and 19%, respectively as compared to the group of obese children. VO₂max and weight and obesity indices were strongly correlated in both gender and age groups. Education and intervention programs to increase physical fitness (VO₂max) through aerobic training are recommended for Physical Education teachers, parents and children in order to reduce the rate of overweight and obesity among children in the Lower Silesia region of Poland.

  15. SKENARIO PENGEMBANGAN SISTEM ANGKUTAN UMUM DI KOTA PALANGKA RAYA BERBASIS SISTEM TRANSPORTASI BERKELANJUTAN

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    Sutan Parasian Silitonga

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The concept of a sustainable and environmental transportation system emphasizes the widespread use of public transport, but the fact is very contrary to the development of the motorization trend era in Asian countries, especially the use of private vehicles motorcycles type. This is very closely related to the low functionality of public transport utilities, so it is not interesting to use. The success in the implementation of sustainable transportation policy is highly depended on the situation and condition of a city and the approach and understanding of the characteristics of society behavior, so that in the development of a city's public transport system there are not only technical and economic considerations but also community (social preference consideration as an important part that unignoreable.  This research specifically aimed to respond the community preferences using Multinomial Logit  (MNL model on several development scenarios of public transportation system in Palangka Raya based on scenario of road network pattern, traffic flow characteristic and land use type where the scenario analyzed using Analytic Hierarchy Procces (AHP based on key parameters such as costs, construction and planning time, passenger capacity, flexibility, velocity, influence on city development and environment. The results of the study based on AHP analysis and regression analysis on community responses provided clear guidance on appropriate scenarios developed in Palangka Raya City where one of the main factor in the implementation consideration was the financial capability of the city. Final conclusion, the development of public transportation system scenario of Bus Rapid Transit (BRT model equipped with feeder became a worthy considered option by the government of Palangka Raya City. Keywords: AHP, MNL, Development Scenario, BRT

  16. Patients' sense of security during palliative care-what are the influencing factors?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milberg, Anna; Friedrichsen, Maria; Jakobsson, Maria; Nilsson, Eva-Carin; Niskala, Birgitta; Olsson, Maria; Wåhlberg, Rakel; Krevers, Barbro

    2014-07-01

    Having a sense of security is vitally important to patients who have a limited life expectancy. We sought to identify the factors associated with patients' sense of security during the palliative care period. We recruited 174 adult patients (65% of those eligible) from six palliative home care units. The relationship between the patients' sense of security during palliative care and individual factors was evaluated in a stepwise procedure using the generalized linear model (ordinal multinomial distribution and logit link). Respondents' ratings of their sense of security ranged from 1 (never) to 6 (always), with a mean value of 4.6 (SD 1.19). Patients with lower feelings of security experienced higher stress; more worry about personal finances; lower feelings of self-efficacy; a lower sense of security with the palliative care provided (lower ratings on subscales of care interaction); mastery; prevailed own identity; higher symptom intensity (especially depression, anxiety, and lack of well-being); lower health-related quality of life; lower attachment anxiety and avoidance; less support from family, relatives, and friends; lower comfort for those closest to them; and more often had gynecological cancer. Six variables (mastery, nervousness and stress, gynecological cancer, self-efficacy, worrying about personal finances, and avoidance) were selected in building the stepwise model. These findings stress the importance of palliative care services in supporting dying patients' sense of security through symptom management with a wide scope and through supporting the patients' sense of mastery, identity, and perception of a secure care interaction and also through attention to the family members' situation. Copyright © 2014 U.S. Cancer Pain Relief Committee. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. HABITAT: A longitudinal multilevel study of physical activity change in mid-aged adults

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    Brown Wendy J

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Little is known about the patterns and influences of physical activity change in mid-aged adults. This study describes the design, sampling, data collection, and analytical plan of HABITAT, an innovative study of (i physical activity change over five years (2007–2011 in adults aged 40–65 years at baseline, and (ii the relative contribution of psychological variables, social support, neighborhood perceptions, area-level factors, and sociodemographic characteristics to physical activity change. Methods/Design HABITAT is a longitudinal multi-level study. 1625 Census Collection Districts (CCDs in Brisbane, Australia were ranked by their index of relative socioeconomic disadvantage score, categorized into deciles, and 20 CCDs from each decile were selected to provide 200 local areas for study inclusion. From each of the 200 CCDs, dwellings with individuals aged between 40–65 years (in 2007 were identified using electoral roll data, and approximately 85 people per CCD were selected to participate (N = 17,000. A comprehensive Geographic Information System (GIS database has been compiled with area-level information on public transport networks, footpaths, topography, traffic volume, street lights, tree coverage, parks, public services, and recreational facilities Participants are mailed a questionnaire every two years (2007, 2009, 2011, with items assessing physical activity (general walking, moderate activity, vigorous activity, walking for transport, cycling for transport, recreational activities, sitting time, perceptions of neighborhood characteristics (traffic, pleasant surroundings, streets, footpaths, crime and safety, distance to recreational and business facilities, social support, social cohesion, activity-related cognitions (attitudes, efficacy, barriers, motivation, health, and sociodemographic characteristics. Analyses will use binary and multinomial logit regression models, as well as generalized linear latent

  18. Modeling crash injury severity by road feature to improve safety.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Penmetsa, Praveena; Pulugurtha, Srinivas S

    2018-01-02

    The objective of this research is 2-fold: to (a) model and identify critical road features (or locations) based on crash injury severity and compare it with crash frequency and (b) model and identify drivers who are more likely to contribute to crashes by road feature. Crash data from 2011 to 2013 were obtained from the Highway Safety Information System (HSIS) for the state of North Carolina. Twenty-three different road features were considered, analyzed, and compared with each other as well as no road feature. A multinomial logit (MNL) model was developed and odds ratios were estimated to investigate the effect of road features on crash injury severity. Among the many road features, underpass, end or beginning of a divided highway, and on-ramp terminal on crossroad are the top 3 critical road features. Intersection crashes are frequent but are not highly likely to result in severe injuries compared to critical road features. Roundabouts are least likely to result in both severe and moderate injuries. Female drivers are more likely to be involved in crashes at intersections (4-way and T) compared to male drivers. Adult drivers are more likely to be involved in crashes at underpasses. Older drivers are 1.6 times more likely to be involved in a crash at the end or beginning of a divided highway. The findings from this research help to identify critical road features that need to be given priority. As an example, additional advanced warning signs and providing enlarged or highly retroreflective signs that grab the attention of older drivers may help in making locations such as end or beginning of a divided highway much safer. Educating drivers about the necessary skill sets required at critical road features in addition to engineering solutions may further help them adopt safe driving behaviors on the road.

  19. Association of Rotating Night Shift Work with BMI and Abdominal Obesity among Nurses and Midwives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peplonska, Beata; Bukowska, Agnieszka; Sobala, Wojciech

    2015-01-01

    Mounting epidemiological evidence suggests that night shift work may contribute to the etiology of increased body weight. The present study aimed to examine association between rotating night shift work and body mass index (BMI), and abdominal adiposity respectively among nurses and midwives. A cross-sectional study was conducted among 724 female nurses and midwives, aged 40-60 years (354 rotating night shift and 370 daytime workers) in Łódź, Poland, between 2008 and 2011. Information about occupational history and potential confounders was collected during personal interviews. Anthropometric measurements of body weight, height, waist (WC) and hip (HC) circumference were made, and body mass index (BMI), waist to hip ratio (WHR) and waist to height ratio (WHtR) were calculated. GLM regression models and multinomial logit regression models were fitted to explore the association between night shift work and anthropometric parameters, with adjustment for age, body silhouette at age 20, current smoking status, packyears, marital status, and menopausal hormone therapy use. Cumulative night shift work showed significant associations with BMI, WC, HC and WHtR, with BMI increasing by 0.477 kg/m2 per 1000 night duties and by 0.432 kg/m2 per 10000 night shift hours, WC increasing respectively by 1.089 cm and 0.99 cm, and HC by 0.72 cm and WHtR by 0.007 cm for both metrics. Both current and cumulative night work was associated with obesity (BMI≥30kg/m2), with OR=3.9 (95%CI:1.5-9.9), in women reporting eight or more night shifts per month. The results of the study support the previously reported relations between night shift work and development of obesity.

  20. Food insufficiency and food insecurity as risk factors for physical disability among Palestinian refugees in Lebanon: Evidence from an observational study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salti, Nisreen; Ghattas, Hala

    2016-10-01

    Potential interactions between malnutrition and disability are increasingly recognized, and both are important global health issues. Causal effects working from nutrition to disability and from disability back to nutrition present an empirical challenge to measuring either of these effects. However, disability affects nutrition whatever the cause of disability, whereas nutrition is likelier to affect disease-related disability than war- or work-related disability. This paper investigates the association of food insufficiency with the risk of physical disability. Data on disability by cause allow us to address the difficulty of reverse causality. Multinomial logit regressions of disability by cause on food insufficiency are run using survey data from 2010 on 2575 Palestinian refugee households in Lebanon. Controls include household sociodemographic, health and economic characteristics. Regressions of food insufficiency on disability by cause are also run. Disability has a significant coefficient in regressions of food insufficiency, whatever the cause of disability; but in regressions of disability on food insufficiency, food insufficiency is significant only for disease-related disability (log odds of disease-related disability .78 higher, p = .008). The difference in the results by cause of disability is evidence of a significant association between food insufficiency and disease-related disability, net of any reverse effect from disability to food access. The association between disease-related disability and food insufficiency is statistically significant suggesting that even taking into account feedback from disability to nutrition, nutrition is an effective level of intervention to avert the poverty-disability trap resulting from the impoverishing effect of disability. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. The Timing and Direction of Statutory Tax Rate Changes by the Canadian Provinces

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    Ergete Ferede

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Tax rate changes are some of the most significant and far-reaching decisions a government can take. A good understanding of the odds of any such changes is essential for any business debating the timing and location of investments. This paper investigates the factors that affect the timing of statutory tax rate changes by Canadian provincial governments. The authors develop a simple theoretical model to explain the “stickiness” of tax rates — the factors that lead a province to decide against tinkering with the tax system — based on the presence of fixed costs of adjusting tax rates. The results indicate that if the current rate falls within a range of tax rates bracketing the optimal rate, then the government will not adjust its tax rate because the cost of the reform outweighs the potential benefits. To build up a body of evidence, this paper employs a multinomial logit model to examine the likelihood of changes to personal income tax (PIT, corporate income tax (CIT, and provincial sales tax (PST rates by provincial governments over the period 1973-2010. Regression results indicate that provincial governments that start with higher tax rates are more likely to cut, and less likely to raise, their tax rates. A higher provincial budget deficit reduces the probability of a CIT rate cut and raises the probability of a PST rate increase. Party ideology seems to matter. Provinces with leftleaning governments are less likely to cut PIT and PST rates, and more likely to raise PIT rates compared to non-left-leaning governments. The authors also find that a federal PIT rate cut raises the probability of a provincial PIT rate increase, whereas a federal CIT rate cut raises the probability of a provincial CIT rate reduction.

  2. Household energy preferences for cooking in urban Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ouedraogo, Boukary

    2006-01-01

    An extensive survey on household expenditures in Ouagadougou, the capital of Burkina Faso, was used to analyze the factors determining urban household energy choices using a multinomial logit model. Wood-energy remains the preferred fuel of most urban households in the country; though rational, the choice is not sustainable as it portends a threat to the savanna woodlands and the economy. Many important policies have been adopted by public authorities to minimize household wood-energy consumption and to substitute it by alternative fuel. Despite the magnitude of all these policies, the depletion rate of the forest resource is increasing. A kind of inertia is thus observed for household preferences for cooking fuel. This model analyzes the sociological and economic variables of household energy preferences for cooking in Ouagadougou. The analyses show that the inertia of household cooking energy preferences are due to poverty factors such as low income, poor household access to electricity for primary and secondary energy, low house standard, household size, high frequency of cooking certain meals using woodfuel as cooking energy. The descriptive analyses show that the domestic demand for wood-energy is strongly related to household income. The firewood utilization rate decreases with increasing household income. In other words, this fuel appears as a 'transition good' for these households which aim for other sources of energy for cooking that are more adapted for urban consumption. This implies that a price subsidy policy for liquid petroleum gas (LPG) and its cook stoves could significantly decrease the utilization rate of wood-energy

  3. Bullying behaviour in schools, socioeconomic position and psychiatric morbidity: a cross-sectional study in late adolescents in Greece.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magklara, Konstantina; Skapinakis, Petros; Gkatsa, Tatiana; Bellos, Stefanos; Araya, Ricardo; Stylianidis, Stylianos; Mavreas, Venetsanos

    2012-02-12

    Bullying is quite prevalent in the school setting and has been associated with the socioeconomic position and psychiatric morbidity of the pupils. The aim of the study was to investigate the association between bullying and socioeconomic status in a sample of Greek adolescents and to examine whether this is confounded by the presence of psychiatric morbidity, including sub-threshold forms of illness. 5,614 adolescents aged 16-18 years old and attending 25 senior high schools were screened and a stratified random sample of 2,427 were selected for a detailed interview. Psychiatric morbidity was assessed with a fully structured psychiatric interview, the revised Clinical Interview Schedule (CIS-R), while bullying was assessed with the revised Olweus bully/victim questionnaire. The following socio-economic variables were assessed: parental educational level and employment status, financial difficulties of the family and adolescents' school performance. The associations were investigated using multinomial logit models. 26.4% of the pupils were involved in bullying-related behaviours at least once monthly either as victims, perpetrators or both, while more frequent involvement (at least once weekly) was reported by 4.1%. Psychiatric morbidity was associated with all types of bullying-related behaviours. No socioeconomic associations were reported for victimization. A lower school performance and unemployment of the father were significantly more likely among perpetrators, while economic inactivity of the mother was more likely in pupils who were both victims and perpetrators. These results were largely confirmed when we focused on high frequency behaviours only. In addition, being overweight increased the risk of frequent victimization. The prevalence of bullying among Greek pupils is substantial. Perpetration was associated with some dimensions of adolescents' socioeconomic status, while victimization showed no socioeconomic associations. Our findings may add to the

  4. Modeling the Travel Behavior Impacts of Micro-Scale Land Use and Socio-Economic Factors

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    Houshmand Ebrahimpour Masoumi

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The effects of neighborhood-level land use characteristics on urban travel behavior of Iranian cities are under-researched. The present paper examines such influences in a microscopic scale. In this study the role of socio-economic factors is also studies and compared to that of urban form. Two case-study neighborhoods in west of Tehran are selected and considered, first of which is a centralized and compact neighborhood and the other is a sprawled and centerless one. A Multinomial Logit Regression model is developed to consider the effects of socio-economic and land use factors on urban travel pattern. In addition, to consider the effective factors, cross-sectional comparison between the influences of local accessibility and attractiveness of the neighborhood centers of the two case-study areas are undertaken. Also the causality relationships are considered according to the findings of the survey. The findings indicate significant effects of age and household income as socio-economic factors on transportation mode choice in neighborhoods with central structure. One the other hand, no meaningful association between socio-economic or land use variables are resulted by the model for the sprawled case. The most effective land use concept in micro-scale is considered to be satisfaction of entertainment facilities of the neighborhood. Also the descriptive findings show that the centralized neighborhood that gives more local accessibility to shops and retail generates less shopping trips. In considering the causal relations, the study shows that providing neighborhood infrastructures that increase or ease the accessibility to neighborhood amenities can lead to higher shares of sustainable transportation modes like walking, biking, or public transportation use.

  5. Consumer preferences for electronic cigarettes: results from a discrete choice experiment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Czoli, Christine D; Goniewicz, Maciej; Islam, Towhidul; Kotnowski, Kathy; Hammond, David

    2016-04-01

    E-cigarettes present a formidable challenge to regulators given their variety and the rapidly evolving nicotine market. The current study sought to examine the influence of e-cigarette product characteristics on consumer perceptions and trial intentions among Canadians. An online discrete choice experiment was conducted with 915 Canadians aged 16 years and older in November 2013. An online commercial panel was used to sample 3 distinct subpopulations: (1) non-smoking youth and young adults (n=279); (2) smoking youth and young adults (n=264) and (3) smoking adults (n=372). Participants completed a series of stated-preference tasks, in which they viewed choice sets with e-cigarette product images that featured different combinations of attributes: flavour, nicotine content, health warnings and price. For each choice set, participants were asked to select one of the products or indicate 'none of the above' with respect to the following outcomes: interest in trying, less harm and usefulness in quitting smoking. The attributes' impact on consumer choice for each outcome was analysed using multinomial logit regression. Health warning was the most important attribute influencing participants' intentions to try e-cigarettes (42%) and perceived efficacy as a quit aid (39%). Both flavour (36%) and health warnings (35%) significantly predicted perceptions of product harm. The findings indicate that consumers make trade-offs with respect to e-cigarette product characteristics, and that these trade-offs vary across different subpopulations. Given that health warnings and flavour were weighted most important by consumers in this study, these may represent good targets for e-cigarette regulatory frameworks. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

  6. Empirical Analysis and Modeling of Stop-Line Crossing Time and Speed at Signalized Intersections

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    Keshuang Tang

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available In China, a flashing green (FG indication of 3 s followed by a yellow (Y indication of 3 s is commonly applied to end the green phase at signalized intersections. Stop-line crossing behavior of drivers during such a phase transition period significantly influences safety performance of signalized intersections. The objective of this study is thus to empirically analyze and model drivers’ stop-line crossing time and speed in response to the specific phase transition period of FG and Y. High-resolution trajectories for 1465 vehicles were collected at three rural high-speed intersections with a speed limit of 80 km/h and two urban intersections with a speed limit of 50 km/h in Shanghai. With the vehicle trajectory data, statistical analyses were performed to look into the general characteristics of stop-line crossing time and speed at the two types of intersections. A multinomial logit model and a multiple linear regression model were then developed to predict the stop-line crossing patterns and speeds respectively. It was found that the percentage of stop-line crossings during the Y interval is remarkably higher and the stop-line crossing time is approximately 0.7 s longer at the urban intersections, as compared with the rural intersections. In addition, approaching speed and distance to the stop-line at the onset of FG as well as area type significantly affect the percentages of stop-line crossings during the FG and Y intervals. Vehicle type and stop-line crossing pattern were found to significantly influence the stop-line crossing speed, in addition to the above factors. The red-light-running seems to occur more frequently at the large intersections with a long cycle length.

  7. Multi-disciplinary decision making in general practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirby, Ann; Murphy, Aileen; Bradley, Colin

    2018-04-09

    Purpose Internationally, healthcare systems are moving towards delivering care in an integrated manner which advocates a multi-disciplinary approach to decision making. Such an approach is formally encouraged in the management of Atrial Fibrillation patients through the European Society of Cardiology guidelines. Since the emergence of new oral anticoagulants switching between oral anticoagulants (OACs) has become prevalent. This case study considers the role of multi-disciplinary decision making, given the complex nature of the agents. The purpose of this paper is to explore Irish General Practitioners' (GPs) experience of switching between all OACs for Arial Fibrillation (AF) patients; prevalence of multi-disciplinary decision making in OAC switching decisions and seeks to determine the GP characteristics that appear to influence the likelihood of multi-disciplinary decision making. Design/methodology/approach A probit model is used to determine the factors influencing multi-disciplinary decision making and a multinomial logit is used to examine the factors influencing who is involved in the multi-disciplinary decisions. Findings Results reveal that while some multi-disciplinary decision-making is occurring (64 per cent), it is not standard practice despite international guidelines on integrated care. Moreover, there is a lack of patient participation in the decision-making process. Female GPs and GPs who have initiated prescriptions for OACs are more likely to engage in multi-disciplinary decision-making surrounding switching OACs amongst AF patients. GPs with training practices were less likely to engage with cardiac consultants and those in urban areas were more likely to engage with other (non-cardiac) consultants. Originality/value For optimal decision making under uncertainty multi-disciplinary decision-making is needed to make a more informed judgement and to improve treatment decisions and reduce the opportunity cost of making the wrong decision.

  8. Patterns and Determinants of Double-Burden of Malnutrition among Rural Children: Evidence from China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nan Zhang

    Full Text Available Chinese children are facing dual burden of malnutrition-coexistence of under-and over-nutrition. Little systematic evidence exists for explaining the simultaneous presence of under-and over-nutrition. This study aims to explore underlying mechanisms of under-and over-nutrition among children in rural China. This study used a nationwide longitudinal dataset of children (N = 5,017 from 9 provinces across China, with four exclusively categories of nutritional outcomes including under-nutrition (stunting and underweight, over-nutrition (overweight only including obesity, paradox (stunted overweight, with normal nutrition as reference. Multinomial logit models (Level-1: occasions; Level-2: children; Level-3: villages were fitted which corrected for non-independence of observations due to geographic clustering and repeated observations of individuals. A mixture of risk factors at the individual, household and neighbourhood levels predicted under-and over-nutrition among children in rural China. Improved socioeconomic status and living in more urbanised villages reduced the risk of stunted overweight among rural children in China. Young girls appeared to have higher risk of under-nutrition, and the risk decreased with age more markedly than for boys up to age 5. From age 5 onwards, boys tended to have higher risk of under-nutrition than girls. Girls aged around 12 and older were less likely to suffer from under-nutrition, while boys' higher risk of under-nutrition persisted throughout adolescence. Children were less likely to suffer from over-nutrition compared to normal nutrition. Boys tended to have an even lower risk of over-nutrition than girls and the gender difference widened with age until adolescence. Our results have important policy implications that improving household economic status, in particular, maternal education and health insurance for children, and living environment are important to enhance rural children's nutritional status in

  9. Patterns and Determinants of Double-Burden of Malnutrition among Rural Children: Evidence from China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Nan; Bécares, Laia; Chandola, Tarani

    2016-01-01

    Chinese children are facing dual burden of malnutrition-coexistence of under-and over-nutrition. Little systematic evidence exists for explaining the simultaneous presence of under-and over-nutrition. This study aims to explore underlying mechanisms of under-and over-nutrition among children in rural China. This study used a nationwide longitudinal dataset of children (N = 5,017) from 9 provinces across China, with four exclusively categories of nutritional outcomes including under-nutrition (stunting and underweight), over-nutrition (overweight only including obesity), paradox (stunted overweight), with normal nutrition as reference. Multinomial logit models (Level-1: occasions; Level-2: children; Level-3: villages) were fitted which corrected for non-independence of observations due to geographic clustering and repeated observations of individuals. A mixture of risk factors at the individual, household and neighbourhood levels predicted under-and over-nutrition among children in rural China. Improved socioeconomic status and living in more urbanised villages reduced the risk of stunted overweight among rural children in China. Young girls appeared to have higher risk of under-nutrition, and the risk decreased with age more markedly than for boys up to age 5. From age 5 onwards, boys tended to have higher risk of under-nutrition than girls. Girls aged around 12 and older were less likely to suffer from under-nutrition, while boys' higher risk of under-nutrition persisted throughout adolescence. Children were less likely to suffer from over-nutrition compared to normal nutrition. Boys tended to have an even lower risk of over-nutrition than girls and the gender difference widened with age until adolescence. Our results have important policy implications that improving household economic status, in particular, maternal education and health insurance for children, and living environment are important to enhance rural children's nutritional status in China

  10. Use of and factors associated with self-treatment in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuefeng Li

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background When an individual is ill or symptomatic, they have the options of seeking professional health care, self-treating or doing nothing. In China, some studies suggest that the number of individuals opting to self-treat has been rapidly increasing in recent years. Therefore, the aim of this study was to analyze the trends of and factors related to self-treatment in China. Methods Self-treatment was measured based the concept and data of the China National Health Survey (CNHS, which covers 802,454 individuals. We used CNHS data from 1993, 1998, 2003, and 2008, and a Multinomial Logit Selection Model to estimate the factors influencing the decision to self-treat. Results The prevalences of self-treatment with a recall period of two-weeks were significantly higher in urban compared with rural areas (31.2% vs 14.9% in 1993, 43.5% vs 21.4% in 1998, 47.2% vs 31.4% in 2003, 31.0% vs 25.3% in 2008 in China. Economic (per capita income, TV, sanitary water and individual (education, profession, family members, exercise factors, as well as accessibility to drugs had a positive association with the probability of self-treating. Different illness symptoms, severity, and duration show a negative association with the probability of self-treating, showing a degree of rationality in decision-making. Different insurance systems were also found to have an effect on self-treatment decision-making. Conclusions Self-treatment and professional medical services have shared the incremental medical needs of residents in recent years in China. Self-perceived illness status, economic circumstances, and education play important roles in health care decision-making.

  11. Are there differences between unconditional and conditional demand estimates? implications for future research and policy

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    Hidayat Budi

    2008-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Estimations of the demand for healthcare often rely on estimating the conditional probabilities of being ill. Such estimate poses several problems due to sample selectivity problems and an under-reporting of the incidence of illness. This study examines the effects of health insurance on healthcare demand in Indonesia, using samples that are both unconditional and conditional on being ill, and comparing the results. Methods The demand for outpatient care in three alternative providers was modeled using a multinomial logit regression for samples unconditional on being ill (N = 16485 and conditional on being ill (N = 5055. The ill sample was constructed from two measures of health status – activity of daily living impairments and severity of illness – derived from the second round of panel data from the Indonesian Family Life Survey. The recycling prediction method was used to predict the distribution of utilization rates based on having health insurance and income status, while holding all other variables constant. Results Both unconditional and conditional estimates yield similar results in terms of the direction of the most covariates. The magnitude effects of insurance on healthcare demand are about 7.5% (public providers and 20% (private providers higher for unconditional estimates than for conditional ones. Further, exogenous variables in the former estimates explain a higher variation of the model than that in the latter ones. Findings confirm that health insurance has a positive impact on the demand for healthcare, with the highest effect found among the lowest income group. Conclusion Conditional estimates do not suffer from statistical selection bias. Such estimates produce smaller demand effects for health insurance than unconditional ones do. Whether to rely on conditional or unconditional demand estimates depends on the purpose of study in question. Findings also demonstrate that health insurance programs

  12. Farmers' Options to Address Water Scarcity in a Changing Climate: Case Studies from two Basins in Mediterranean Chile.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roco, Lisandro; Poblete, David; Meza, Francisco; Kerrigan, George

    2016-12-01

    Irrigated agriculture in Mediterranean areas faces tremendous challenges because of its exposure to hydroclimatic variability, increasing competition for water from different sectors, and the possibility of a climatic change. In this context, efficient management of water resources emerges as a critical issue. This requires the adoption of technological innovations, investment in infrastructure, adequate institutional arrangements, and informed decision makers. To understand farmers' perceptions and their implementation of climate change adaptation strategies with regards to water management, primary information was captured in the Limarí and Maule river basins in Chile. Farmers identified stressors for agriculture; climate change, droughts, and lack of water appeared as the most relevant stressors compared to others productive, economic, and institutional factors; revealing a rising relevance of climate related factors. While most producers perceived climate changes in recent years (92.9 %), a significant proportion (61.1 %) claim to have experienced drought, whereas only a fraction (31.9 %) have implemented a strategy to deal with this situation. Identified actions were classified in four groups: investments for water accumulation, modernization of irrigation systems, rationalization of water use, and partnership activities. Using a multinomial logit model these strategies were related to socioeconomic and productive characteristics. Results show that gender and farm size are relevant for investments, implementation and improvement of irrigation systems. For all the strategies described, access to weather information was a relevant element. The study provides empirical evidence of a recent increase in the importance assigned to climate factors by producers and adaptation options that can be supported by agricultural policy.

  13. Why are a quarter of faculty considering leaving academic medicine? A study of their perceptions of institutional culture and intentions to leave at 26 representative U.S. medical schools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pololi, Linda H; Krupat, Edward; Civian, Janet T; Ash, Arlene S; Brennan, Robert T

    2012-07-01

    Vital, productive faculty are critical to academic medicine, yet studies indicate high dissatisfaction and attrition. The authors sought to identify key personal and cultural factors associated with intentions to leave one's institution and/or academic medicine. From 2007 through early 2009, the authors surveyed a stratified random sample of 4,578 full-time faculty from 26 representative U.S. medical schools. The survey asked about advancement, engagement, relationships, diversity and equity, leadership, institutional values and practices, and work-life integration. A two-level, multinomial logit model was used to predict leaving intentions. A total of 2,381 faculty responded (52%); 1,994 provided complete data for analysis. Of these, 1,062 (53%) were female and 475 (24%) were underrepresented minorities in medicine. Faculty valued their work, but 273 (14%) had seriously considered leaving their own institution during the prior year and 421 (21%) had considered leaving academic medicine altogether because of dissatisfaction; an additional 109 (5%) cited personal/family issues and 49 (2%) retirement as reasons to leave. Negative perceptions of the culture-unrelatedness, feeling moral distress at work, and lack of engagement-were associated with leaving for dissatisfaction. Other significant predictors were perceptions of values incongruence, low institutional support, and low self-efficacy. Institutional characteristics and personal variables (e.g., gender) were not predictive. Findings suggest that academic medicine does not support relatedness and a moral culture for many faculty. If these issues are not addressed, academic health centers may find themselves with dissatisfied faculty looking to go elsewhere.

  14. Dominance of sterilization and alternative choices of contraception in India: an appraisal of the socioeconomic impact.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Isabel Tiago de Oliveira

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The recent decline in fertility in India has been unprecedented especially in southern India, where fertility is almost exclusively controlled by means of permanent contraceptive methods, mainly female sterilization, which constitutes about two-thirds of overall contraceptive use. Many Indian women undergo sterilization at relatively young ages as a consequence of early marriage and childbearing in short birth intervals. This research aims to investigate the socioeconomic factors determining the choices for alternative contraceptive choices against the dominant preference for sterilization among married women in India. METHODS: Data for this study are drawn from the 2005-06 National Family Health Surveys focusing on a sample of married women who reported having used a method of contraception in the five years preceding the survey. A multilevel multinomial logit regression is used to estimate the impact of socioeconomic factors on contraceptive choices, differentiating temporary modern or traditional methods versus sterilization. FINDINGS: Religious affiliation, women's education and occupation had overarching influence on method choices amongst recent users. Muslim women were at higher odds of choosing a traditional or modern temporary method than sterilization. Higher level of women's education increased the odds of modern temporary method choices but the education effect on traditional method choices was only marginally significant. Recent users belonging to wealthier households had higher odds of choosing modern methods over sterilization. Exposure to family planning messages through radio had a positive effect on modern and traditional method choices. Community variations in method choices were highly significant. CONCLUSION: The persistent dominance of sterilization in the Indian family planning programme is largely determined by socioeconomic conditions. Reproductive health programmes should address the socioeconomic barriers

  15. Development, content validity, and piloting of an instrument designed to measure managers' attitude toward workplace breastfeeding support.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chow, Tan; Wolfe, Edward W; Olson, Beth H

    2012-07-01

    Manager attitude is influential in female employees' perceptions of workplace breastfeeding support. Currently, no instrument is available to assess manager attitude toward supporting women who wish to combine breastfeeding with work. We developed and piloted an instrument to measure manager attitudes toward workplace breastfeeding support entitled the "Managers' Attitude Toward Breastfeeding Support Questionnaire," an instrument that measures four constructs using 60 items that are rated agree/disagree on a 4-point Likert rating scale. We established the content validity of the Managers' Attitude Toward Breastfeeding Support Questionnaire measures through expert content review (n=22), expert assessment of item fit (n=11), and cognitive interviews (n=8). Data were collected from a purposive sample of 185 front-line managers who had experience supervising female employees, and responses were scaled using the Multidimensional Random Coefficients Multinomial Logit Model. Dimensionality analyses supported the proposed four-construct model. Reliability ranged from 0.75 to 0.86, and correlations between the constructs were moderately strong (0.47 to 0.71). Four items in two constructs exhibited model-to-data misfit and/or a low score-measure correlation. One item was revised and the other three items were retained in the Managers' Attitude Toward Breastfeeding Support Questionnaire. Findings of this study suggest that the Managers' Attitude Toward Breastfeeding Support Questionnaire measures are reliable and valid indicators of manager attitude toward workplace breastfeeding support, and future research should be conducted to establish external validity. The Managers' Attitude Toward Breastfeeding Support Questionnaire could be used to collect data in a standardized manner within and across companies to measure and compare manager attitudes toward supporting breastfeeding. Organizations can subsequently develop targeted strategies to improve support for breastfeeding

  16. Application of economic models to estimate the acceptability of a vehicle congestion charge

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Carlos Jiménez Serpa

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Through the study of the problems generated by vehicular traffic congestion during periods of maximum demand, the negative externality of congestion would be assessed using Multinomial Logit, Mixed and econometric models, and willingness to pay through a Pigouvian rate. Objective: In this article, we propose to implement a congestion charge to manage vehicular demand, through the application of declared preference gages and econometric models. Methodology: The study consists of the execution of 6 steps or stages: Background of the problem, Context of study, Methodological Foundations, Specification and estimation of the model, Estimation of the function average cost user and social marginal cost, Results obtained Discussion and report. Results: Analyzing the models obtained from the 2053 observations made through the declared preference surveys, it was observed that in order to discourage the use of the private car, a rate of COP 7000 per vehicle entering the congestion area or area should be charged, which would decrease the Use of Auto Particular in 68.7%, referring to this behavior we can say that the government policies that set the collection of the congestion charge is a policy that does not fit the perception of the users. Conclusions: This research identified the rate that reflects as closely as possible the marginal social cost and the generalized costs of each trip in terms of the impacts on the others. Now if we consider the marginal cost due to congestion, we have that the current demand is excessive, the users enjoy the benefit at a cost of $ 3,100COP, but impose to others a quota of $22,152COP. Finally, it is necessary to strengthen the legal basis with the regulation and creation of a National Vehicle Electronic Identification System, which will allow, in principle, charges for congestion.

  17. Who becomes more violent among Korean adolescents? Consequences of victimisation in school.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeong, Seokjin; Davis, Jaya; Han, Youngsun

    2015-04-01

    Mainly Western studies suggest that bullying increases risk of subsequent offending. Less is known about risk of violence specifically. Very little such research is from Asia - none from Korea. This study aimed to answer three research questions: Is being a victim of bullying in Korean schools associated with later perpetration of violent behaviour? Does type of bullying influence type of offending? Does school climate or parental control mediate this relationship? Juvenile justice intake officers identified 606 young offenders who were asked to complete questionnaires about their school experience, school climate and parental supervision. We used multinomial logit model with maximum likelihood estimation to evaluate relationships between the variables of interest. Over half (310) of these young people had committed at least one violent offence. Seventy-six (13%) reported having experienced emotional bullying at school and 31 (5%) physical bullying. Violent offending was over twice as likely as property offending to be associated with emotional bullying history (OR 2.38, CI 1.13-5.01), but three times less likely with physical bullying (OR 0.31, CI 0.11-0.87). In addition, parental control (but not school climate) increased the likelihood of violent offending or other delinquency by 15% (OR 1.14, CI 1.02-1.26; OR 1.16, CI 1.01-1.32, respectively). Our overarching finding of a relationship between childhood experience of bullying and later delinquency is in line with Western findings. Where, however, the latter are equivocal on risk of later violence perpetration, we found that being emotionally bullied raises the risk of becoming violent. Our findings also underscore the importance of having studies from a range of cultures. Predictions from Western studies would be that parental control would be protective and school climate a potential risk factor for later violence, but, in Korea, where parenting styles tend to be highly authoritarian, we found differently

  18. Risk factors associated with the presence and severity of food insecurity in rural Honduras.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ben-Davies, Maureen E; Kinlaw, Alan; Estrada Del Campo, Yaniré; Bentley, Margaret E; Siega-Riz, Anna Maria

    2014-01-01

    To identify factors associated with the presence and severity of food insecurity among a sample of Honduran caregivers of young children. Cross-sectional study in which the dependent variable, household food insecurity, was measured using a fourteen-item questionnaire developed and validated in a population of similar cultural context. A predictive modelling strategy used backwards elimination in logistic regression and multinomial logit regression models to compute odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals for food insecurity. Rural Honduras in the department of Intibucá, between March and April 2009. Two-hundred and ninety-eight Honduran caregivers of children aged 6-18 months. Ninety-three per cent of households were classified as having some degree of food insecurity (mild, moderate or severe). After controlling for caregiver age and marital status, compared with caregivers with more than primary-school education, those with less than primary-school education had 3·47 (95% CI 1·34, 8·99) times the odds of severe food insecurity and 2·29 (95% CI 1·00, 5·25) times the odds of moderate food insecurity. Our results also found that child anthropometric status was not associated with the presence or severity of food insecurity. These results show that among the sociodemographic factors assessed, food insecurity in rural Honduras is associated with maternal education. Understanding key factors associated with food insecurity that are unique to Honduras can inform the design of interventions to effectively mitigate the negative impact of food insecurity on children.

  19. The Impact of Income and Taxation in a Price-Tiered Cigarette Market - findings from the ITC Bangladesh Surveys.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huq, Iftekharul; Nargis, Nigar; Lkhagvasuren, Damba; Hussain, Akm Ghulam; Fong, Geoffrey T

    2018-04-25

    Taxing tobacco is among the most effective measures of tobacco control. However, in a tiered market structure where multiple tiers of taxes coexist, the anticipated impact of tobacco taxes on consumption is complex. This paper investigates changing smoking behaviour in lieu of changing prices and changing income. The objective of the paper is to evaluate the effectiveness of change in prices (through taxes) and change in income in a price-tiered cigarette market. A panel dataset from the International Tobacco Control Bangladesh surveys is used for analysis. For preliminary analysis transition matrices are developed. Next, probit and multinomial logit regression models are used to identify the effects of changes in prices and changes in income along with other control variables. Transition matrices show significant movement of smokers across price tiers from one wave to another. Regression results show that higher income raises the probability to up-trade and decreases the probability to down-trade. Results also show that higher prices raises the probability to up-trade and reduces the probability to down-trade. Although not significant, there exists a negative relationship between the probability to down-trade and the probability to intend to quit. It is evident from the results that a price-tiered market provides smokers more opportunities to accommodate their smoking behaviour when faced with price and income change. Therefore, tiered structure of the tax system should be replaced with uniform taxes. Moreover, overall cigarette taxes need to be raised to an extent so that it off-sets any positive effects of income growth. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

  20. The use of choice experiments in the analysis of tourist preferences for ecotourism development in Costa Rica.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hearne, Robert R; Salinas, Zenia M

    2002-06-01

    Many nations promote nature-based tourism in order to promote the dual goals of nature conservation and income generation. To be most effective in providing services that facilitate achievement of these goals, decision makers will need to understand and incorporate tourist preferences for nature appreciation, infrastructure, use restrictions, and other attributes of national parks and protected areas. This paper presents the use of choice experiments as a mechanism to analyze preferences of national and international tourists in relation to the development of Barva Volcano Area in Costa Rica. In this section of the Braulio Carrillo National Park, managers are faced with an immediate need to plan for greatly increased visitation rates due to a new road, which will greatly improve access. Choice sets were developed in collaboration with park managers. A survey was conducted of 171 Costa Rican and 271 foreign tourists who visited Poás Volcano, a well-visited alternative site to Barva Volcano. Survey data was analyzed using conditional multinomial logit models. Results of the study demonstrate, that both sets of tourists preferred: (i) improved infrastructure; (ii) aerial trams with observation towers and picnic areas; (iii) more information; and (iv) low entrance fees. Foreign tourists demonstrated strong preferences for the inclusion of restrictions in the access to some trails, whereas Costa Ricans did not show any significant preference for restrictions. Marginal willingness-to-pay for greater information was estimated to be $1.54 for foreign tourists and $1.01 for Costa Rican visitors. The study concludes that choice experiments are a useful tool in the analyses of tourist preferences for the development of protected areas in developing countries.

  1. Factors influencing the imposition of a charge on the entrance to the interpretive trails in the large protected areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Josef Navrátil

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to assess the relation between the character of the interpretive trail and the imposition of a charge on the entrance. This was done using the discrete choice experiment that involves eight attributes, seven of which are with three levels: the overall character of the trail, the way that the route signs are used in the terrain, the ways of providing information, the length of the trail, the way of the routing, the focus of the trail, and the price of the entrance. There is also one with two levels that involves the existence of the places for rest. The fractional factorial design was used (the orthogonal main effects plan and the Multinomial Logit Model was used in analyzing the data. The 2,830 choices were done by random sampled visitors from eight tourist locations in the Tourist Regions of the Šumava Mts. and South Bohemia during the summer season 2012. The impact of the character of the trail was especially detected in the model. Except for that, the equipment of the trail and its length have had the fundamental impact on the choice of the trail as well. Those longer and worse equipped trails have a significantly lower degree of utility for the respondents. What is quite surprising is that the respondents refused the ecotourism elements of the interpretive trails, such as the possibility of going through the trail on horseback or the accompaniment of an expert who would provide some comments, as it is common to do this at historical attractions within those sightseeing paths.

  2. Fresh meat packaging: consumer acceptance of modified atmosphere packaging including carbon monoxide.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grebitus, Carola; Jensen, Helen H; Roosen, Jutta; Sebranek, Joseph G

    2013-01-01

    Consumers' perceptions and evaluations of meat quality attributes such as color and shelf life influence purchasing decisions, and these product attributes can be affected by the type of fresh meat packaging system. Modified atmosphere packaging (MAP) extends the shelf life of fresh meat and, with the inclusion of carbon monoxide (CO-MAP), achieves significant color stabilization. The objective of this study was to assess whether consumers would accept specific packaging technologies and what value consumers place on ground beef packaged under various atmospheres when their choices involved the attributes of color and shelf life. The study used nonhypothetical consumer choice experiments to determine the premiums that consumers are willing to pay for extended shelf life resulting from MAP and for the "cherry red" color in meat resulting from CO-MAP. The experimental design allowed determination of whether consumers would discount foods with MAP or CO-MAP when (i) they are given more detailed information about the technologies and (ii) they have different levels of individual knowledge and media exposure. The empirical analysis was conducted using multinomial logit models. Results indicate that consumers prefer an extension of shelf life as long as the applied technology is known and understood. Consumers had clear preferences for brighter (aerobic and CO) red color and were willing to pay $0.16/lb ($0.35/kg) for each level of change to the preferred color. More information on MAP for extending the shelf life and on CO-MAP for stabilizing color decreased consumers' willingness to pay. An increase in personal knowledge and media exposure influenced acceptance of CO-MAP negatively. The results provide quantitative measures of how packaging affects consumers' acceptance and willingness to pay for products. Such information can benefit food producers and retailers who make decisions about investing in new packaging methods.

  3. Cohabitation among secular Jews in Israel: How ethnicity, education, and employment characteristics are related to young adults' living arrangements

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    Avital Manor

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Background: Economic and ideational theories offer various explanations for the roles of ethnicity, education, and employment characteristics in determining cohabitation behavior in various contexts. Objective: We focus on young, native-born secular Jewish adults in Israel, a subpopulation that has been shown to display Second Demographic Transition behaviors. Within this group we investigate whether a person's ethnicity, education, and employment characteristics are associated with their current living arrangements. Methods: We employ multinomial logit regression on a series of five annual data files from the Israeli Social Survey (ISS, 2005-2009. We consider the association between various explanatory variables and the odds of cohabitation vs. being married as well as the odds of cohabitation vs. being unpartnered. Results: Higher odds of cohabiting vs. being married are significantly associated with (1 tertiary education and student status, among men and women; (2 having accumulated fewer than five years of work experience, among men; (3 working full-time, among women; and (4 European-American ethnicity and being third-generation Israeli, among women. Higher odds of cohabiting vs. being unpartnered are significantly associated with (1 tertiary education and student status, among men; and (2 working full-time, among men. Conclusions: We suggest that in Israel a multicausal model that accounts for both economic and ideational factors is appropriate. While limited work experience among men encourages cohabitation as an alternative to marriage, as suggested by some economic theories, associations between cohabitation and educational characteristics (among men and women as well as ethnicity (among women are more consistent with ideational theories.

  4. Future Potential of Hybrid and Diesel Powertrains in the U.S. Light-duty Vehicle Market

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Greene, D.L.

    2004-08-23

    Diesel and hybrid technologies each have the potential to increase light-duty vehicle fuel economy by a third or more without loss of performance, yet these technologies have typically been excluded from technical assessments of fuel economy potential on the grounds that hybrids are too expensive and diesels cannot meet Tier 2 emissions standards. Recently, hybrid costs have come down and the few hybrid makes available are selling well. Diesels have made great strides in reducing particulate and nitrogen oxide emissions, and are likely though not certain to meet future standards. In light of these developments, this study takes a detailed look at the market potential of these two powertrain technologies and their possible impacts on light-duty vehicle fuel economy. A nested multinomial logit model of vehicle choice was calibrated to 2002 model year sales of 930 makes, models and engine-transmission configurations. Based on an assessment of the status and outlook for the two technologies, market shares were predicted for 2008, 2012 and beyond, assuming no additional increase in fuel economy standards or other new policy initiatives. Current tax incentives for hybrids are assumed to be phased out by 2008. Given announced and likely introductions by 2008, hybrids could capture 4-7% and diesels 2-4% of the light-duty market. Based on our best guesses for further introductions, these shares could increase to 10-15% for hybrids and 4-7% for diesels by 2012. The resulting impacts on fleet average fuel economy would be about +2% in 2008 and +4% in 2012. If diesels and hybrids were widely available across vehicle classes, makes, and models, they could capture 40% or more of the light-duty vehicle market.

  5. ADDING A NEW STEP WITH SPATIAL AUTOCORRELATION TO IMPROVE THE FOUR-STEP TRAVEL DEMAND MODEL WITH FEEDBACK FOR A DEVELOPING CITY

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    Xuesong FENG, Ph.D Candidate

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available It is expected that improvement of transport networks could give rise to the change of spatial distributions of population-related factors and car ownership, which are expected to further influence travel demand. To properly reflect such an interdependence mechanism, an aggregate multinomial logit (A-MNL model was firstly applied to represent the spatial distributions of these exogenous variables of the travel demand model by reflecting the influence of transport networks. Next, the spatial autocorrelation analysis is introduced into the log-transformed A-MNL model (called SPA-MNL model. Thereafter, the SPA-MNL model is integrated into the four-step travel demand model with feedback (called 4-STEP model. As a result, an integrated travel demand model is newly developed and named as the SPA-STEP model. Using person trip data collected in Beijing, the performance of the SPA-STEP model is empirically compared with the 4-STEP model. It was proven that the SPA-STEP model is superior to the 4-STEP model in accuracy; most of the estimated parameters showed statistical differences in values. Moreover, though the results of the simulations to the same set of assumed scenarios by the 4-STEP model and the SPA-STEP model consistently suggested the same sustainable path for the future development of Beijing, it was found that the environmental sustainability and the traffic congestion for these scenarios were generally overestimated by the 4-STEP model compared with the corresponding analyses by the SPA-STEP model. Such differences were clearly generated by the introduction of the new modeling step with spatial autocorrelation.

  6. Analysis of the residential location choice and household energy consumption behavior by incorporating multiple self-selection effects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yu Biying; Junyi Zhang; Fujiwara, Akimasa

    2012-01-01

    It is expected that the residential location choice and household energy consumption behavior might correlate with each other. Besides, due to the existence of self-selection effects, the observed inter-relationship between them might be the spurious result of the fact that some unobserved variables are causing both. These concerns motivate us to (1) consider residential location choice and household energy consumption behavior (for both in-home appliances and out-of-home cars) simultaneously and, (2) explicitly control self-selection effects so as to capture a relatively true effect of land-use policy on household energy consumption behavior. An integrated model termed as joint mixed Multinomial Logit-Multiple Discrete-Continuous Extreme Value model is presented here to identify the sensitivity of household energy consumption to land use policy by considering multiple self-selection effects. The model results indicate that land-use policy do play a great role in changing Beijing residents’ energy consumption pattern, while the self-selection effects cannot be ignored when evaluating the effect of land-use policy. Based on the policy scenario design, it is found that increasing recreational facilities and bus lines in the neighborhood can greatly promote household's energy-saving behavior. Additionally, the importance of “soft policy” and package policy is also emphasized in the context of Beijing. - Highlights: ► Representing residential choice and household energy consumption behavior jointly. ► Land use policy is found effective to control the household energy use in Beijing. ► Multiple self-selection effects are posed to get the true effect of land use policy. ► Significant self-selection effects call an attention to the soft policy in Beijing. ► The necessity of package policy on saving Beijing residents’ energy use is confirmed.

  7. Comparing Analytic Hierarchy Process and Discrete-Choice Experiment to Elicit Patient Preferences for Treatment Characteristics in Age-Related Macular Degeneration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Danner, Marion; Vennedey, Vera; Hiligsmann, Mickaël; Fauser, Sascha; Gross, Christian; Stock, Stephanie

    2017-09-01

    In this study, we conducted an analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and a discrete choice experiment (DCE) to elicit the preferences of patients with age-related macular degeneration using identical attributes and levels. To compare preference-based weights for age-related macular degeneration treatment attributes and levels generated by two elicitation methods. The properties of both methods were assessed, including ease of instrument use. A DCE and an AHP experiment were designed on the basis of five attributes. Preference-based weights were generated using the matrix multiplication method for attributes and levels in AHP and a mixed multinomial logit model for levels in the DCE. Attribute importance was further compared using coefficient (DCE) and weight (AHP) level ranges. The questionnaire difficulty was rated on a qualitative scale. Patients were asked to think aloud while providing their judgments. AHP and DCE generated similar results regarding levels, stressing a preference for visual improvement, frequent monitoring, on-demand and less frequent injection schemes, approved drugs, and mild side effects. Attribute weights derived on the basis of level ranges led to a ranking that was opposite to the AHP directly calculated attribute weights. For example, visual function ranked first in the AHP and last on the basis of level ranges. The results across the methods were similar, with one exception: the directly measured AHP attribute weights were different from the level-based interpretation of attribute importance in both DCE and AHP. The dependence/independence of attribute importance on level ranges in DCE and AHP, respectively, should be taken into account when choosing a method to support decision making. Copyright © 2017 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Physical Fitness, Physical Activity, Sedentary Behavior, or Diet—What Are the Correlates of Obesity in Polish School Children?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stanisław H. Czyż

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available There is substantial evidence of rising prevalence of overweight and obesity and its co-morbidities among children in western-high income developed countries. In the European Union, the prevalence of overweight and obesity is increasing fastest among Polish children. Yet, there is paucity of evidence on the relationship of behavioral factors with body weight status of children in Poland. This study examined the association of obesity with physical fitness, physical activity, sedentary behavior and diet among Polish children. A total of 641 children (10–15 years recruited from the Lower Silesia region of Poland participated in this cross-sectional study. Participants’ anthropometrics, physical fitness, physical activity, sedentary behavior and dietary intake were assessed. Outcome variables were weight categories (according to body mass index [BMI], waist-to-hip ratio [WHR], and percentage body fat [% BF]. The strongest negative correlation was found between VO2max and %BF (r = −0.39, p <0.05. Significant negative correlation was also found between VO2max and weight categories (r = −0.15. Results of the multinomial logit analysis showed that VO2max increased in groups of overweight, normal weight and underweight children by 13%, 26% and 19%, respectively as compared to the group of obese children. VO2max and weight and obesity indices were strongly correlated in both gender and age groups. Education and intervention programs to increase physical fitness (VO2max through aerobic training are recommended for Physical Education teachers, parents and children in order to reduce the rate of overweight and obesity among children in the Lower Silesia region of Poland.

  9. Dominance of sterilization and alternative choices of contraception in India: an appraisal of the socioeconomic impact.

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    de Oliveira, Isabel Tiago; Dias, José G; Padmadas, Sabu S

    2014-01-01

    The recent decline in fertility in India has been unprecedented especially in southern India, where fertility is almost exclusively controlled by means of permanent contraceptive methods, mainly female sterilization, which constitutes about two-thirds of overall contraceptive use. Many Indian women undergo sterilization at relatively young ages as a consequence of early marriage and childbearing in short birth intervals. This research aims to investigate the socioeconomic factors determining the choices for alternative contraceptive choices against the dominant preference for sterilization among married women in India. Data for this study are drawn from the 2005-06 National Family Health Surveys focusing on a sample of married women who reported having used a method of contraception in the five years preceding the survey. A multilevel multinomial logit regression is used to estimate the impact of socioeconomic factors on contraceptive choices, differentiating temporary modern or traditional methods versus sterilization. Religious affiliation, women's education and occupation had overarching influence on method choices amongst recent users. Muslim women were at higher odds of choosing a traditional or modern temporary method than sterilization. Higher level of women's education increased the odds of modern temporary method choices but the education effect on traditional method choices was only marginally significant. Recent users belonging to wealthier households had higher odds of choosing modern methods over sterilization. Exposure to family planning messages through radio had a positive effect on modern and traditional method choices. Community variations in method choices were highly significant. The persistent dominance of sterilization in the Indian family planning programme is largely determined by socioeconomic conditions. Reproductive health programmes should address the socioeconomic barriers and consider multiple cost-effective strategies such as mass

  10. Bullying behaviour in schools, socioeconomic position and psychiatric morbidity: a cross-sectional study in late adolescents in Greece

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    Magklara Konstantina

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Bullying is quite prevalent in the school setting and has been associated with the socioeconomic position and psychiatric morbidity of the pupils. The aim of the study was to investigate the association between bullying and socioeconomic status in a sample of Greek adolescents and to examine whether this is confounded by the presence of psychiatric morbidity, including sub-threshold forms of illness. Methods 5,614 adolescents aged 16-18 years old and attending 25 senior high schools were screened and a stratified random sample of 2,427 were selected for a detailed interview. Psychiatric morbidity was assessed with a fully structured psychiatric interview, the revised Clinical Interview Schedule (CIS-R, while bullying was assessed with the revised Olweus bully/victim questionnaire. The following socio-economic variables were assessed: parental educational level and employment status, financial difficulties of the family and adolescents' school performance. The associations were investigated using multinomial logit models. Results 26.4% of the pupils were involved in bullying-related behaviours at least once monthly either as victims, perpetrators or both, while more frequent involvement (at least once weekly was reported by 4.1%. Psychiatric morbidity was associated with all types of bullying-related behaviours. No socioeconomic associations were reported for victimization. A lower school performance and unemployment of the father were significantly more likely among perpetrators, while economic inactivity of the mother was more likely in pupils who were both victims and perpetrators. These results were largely confirmed when we focused on high frequency behaviours only. In addition, being overweight increased the risk of frequent victimization. Conclusions The prevalence of bullying among Greek pupils is substantial. Perpetration was associated with some dimensions of adolescents' socioeconomic status, while victimization

  11. Serum fetuin-A associates with type 2 diabetes and insulin resistance in Chinese adults.

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    Aiyun Song

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Previous studies have demonstrated that fetuin-A is related to insulin resistance among subjects with normal glucose tolerance but not patients with type 2 diabetes. There are limited data available concerning fetuin-A and insulin resistance in Chinese. We aimed to study the association of fetuin-A with insulin resistance among participants with or without type 2 diabetes in a large sample size of adults aged 40 and older.A community-based cross-sectional study was performed among 5,227 Chinese adults. The average age of our study was 61.5±9.9 years. Serum fetuin-A concentrations were not significantly different between male and female (296.9 vs. 292.9 mg/l, p = 0.11. Compared with the lowest quartile, the highest quartile of serum fetuin-A revealed a significant higher proportion of type 2 diabetic patients (34.8% vs. 27.3%, p<0.0001. In the multinomial logit models, the risk of type 2 diabetes was associated with each one quartile increase of serum fetuin-A concentrations when referenced not only to normal glucose tolerance (OR 1.24, 95% CI 1.07-1.43, p = 0.004 but also to impaired glucose regulation (OR 1.25, 95% CI 1.08-1.44, p = 0.003, respectively, after adjustment for age, sex, community, current smoking, and current drinking. The logistic regression analysis showed that fetuin-A were associated with elevated HOMA-IR and fasting serum insulin both among the participants with or without type 2 diabetes in the full adjusted analysis. There was no significant association between elevated serum fetuin-A concentrations and impaired glucose regulation (all p≥0.12.Higher fetuin-A concentrations were associated with type 2 diabetes and insulin resistance in middle aged and elderly Chinese.

  12. Airport choice model in multiple airport regions

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    Claudia Muñoz

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: This study aims to analyze travel choices made by air transportation users in multi airport regions because it is a crucial component when planning passenger redistribution policies. The purpose of this study is to find a utility function which makes it possible to know the variables that influence users’ choice of the airports on routes to the main cities in the Colombian territory. Design/methodology/approach: This research generates a Multinomial Logit Model (MNL, which is based on the theory of maximizing utility, and it is based on the data obtained on revealed and stated preference surveys applied to users who reside in the metropolitan area of Aburrá Valley (Colombia. This zone is the only one in the Colombian territory which has two neighboring airports for domestic flights. The airports included in the modeling process were Enrique Olaya Herrera (EOH Airport and José María Córdova (JMC Airport. Several structure models were tested, and the MNL proved to be the most significant revealing the common variables that affect passenger airport choice include the airfare, the price to travel the airport, and the time to get to the airport. Findings and Originality/value: The airport choice model which was calibrated corresponds to a valid powerful tool used to calculate the probability of each analyzed airport of being chosen for domestic flights in the Colombian territory. This is done bearing in mind specific characteristic of each of the attributes contained in the utility function. In addition, these probabilities will be used to calculate future market shares of the two airports considered in this study, and this will be done generating a support tool for airport and airline marketing policies.

  13. Econometric Analysis Suggests Possible Crowding Out of Public Libraries by Book Superstores among Middle Income Families in the 1990s. A review of: Hemmeter, Jeffrey A. “Household Use of Public Libraries and Large Bookstores.” Library & Information Science Research 28.4 (Sept. 2006: 595–616.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephanie Hall

    2007-09-01

    Full Text Available Objective – To determine the effect of large bookstores (defined as those having 20 or more employees on household library use. Design – Econometric analysis using crosssectional data sets. Setting – The United States of America. Subjects – People in over 55,000 households across the U.S.A. Methods – Data from three 1996 studies were examined using logit and multinomial logit estimation procedures: the NationalCenter for Education Statistics’ National Household Education Survey (NHES and Public Library Survey (PLS, and the U.S. Census Bureau’s County Business Patterns (CBP. The county level results of the NHEStelephone survey were merged with the county level data from the PLS and the CBP. Additionally, data on Internet use at the state level from the Statistical Abstract of the United States were incorporated into the data set. A logit regression model was used to estimate probability of library use based on several independent variables, evaluated at the mean. Main results – In general, Hemmeter found that "with regard to the impact of large bookstores on household library use, largebookstores do not appear to have an effect on overall library use among the general population” (613. While no significant changes in general library use were found among high and low income households where more large bookstores were present, nor in the population taken as a whole, middle income households (between $25,000 and $50,000 in annual income showed notable declines in library use in these situations. These effects were strongest in the areas of borrowing (200% less likely and recreational purposes (161%, but were also present in workrelated use and job searching. Hemmeter also writes that “poorer households use the library more often for job search purposes. The probability of library use for recreation,work, and consumer information increases as income increases. This effect diminishes as households get richer” (611. Finally, home

  14. Survey Probability and Factors affecting Farmers Participation in Future and Option Markets Case Study: Cotton product in Gonbad kavos city

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    F. sakhi

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Farmers are facing with a variety of natural and unnatural risks in agricultural activities, and thus their income is unstable. A wide range of risks such as risks of production, price risk, financial and human risks, influence the income of agricultural products. One of the major risks that farmers faced is the risk of price volatility of agricultural products. Cotton is one of the agricultural products with high real price volatility. Numerous tools for marketing and risk management for agricultural products in the face of price risks are available. Futures and options contracts may be the most important available tools (to reduce price volatility in agricultural products. The purpose of the current study was to look at the possibility of farmers participations in the future and option markets that presented as a means to reduce the cotton prices volatility. The dependent variable for this purpose had four categories and these included: participate in both the market, participation in the future market, participation in the option market and participation in both future and option markets. Materials and Methods: data gathered with interview and completing 200 questionnaires of cotton growers using simple random sampling. Multinomial Logit Regression Model was used for data analysis. Results and Discussion: To measure content validity of the preliminary study the validity of confirmatory factor analysis were used. For calculating reliability, the pre-test done with 30 questionnaires and reliability, coefficient Cronbach alpha was 0.79. The independence of dependent variables categories was confirmed by Hausman test results. The Likelihood ratio and Wald showed these categories are not combinable. Results indicated into period 2014 -2015 and the sample under study, 35% of cotton growers unwilling to participate in future and option markets. Farmers willingness to participate in future and option market was 19% and %21

  15. Paying for Cures: How Can We Afford It? Managed Care Pharmacy Stakeholder Perceptions of Policy Options to Address Affordability of Prescription Drugs.

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    Yeung, Kai; Suh, Kangho; Basu, Anirban; Garrison, Louis P; Bansal, Aasthaa; Carlson, Josh J

    2017-10-01

    High-priced medications with curative potential, such as the newer hepatitis C therapies, have contributed to the recent growth in pharmaceutical expenditure. Despite the obvious benefits, health care decision makers are just beginning to grapple with questions of how to value and pay for curative therapies that may feature large upfront cost, followed by health benefits that are reaped over a patient's lifespan. Alternative policy options have been proposed to promote high value and financially sustainable use of these therapies. It is unclear which policy options would be most acceptable to health care payer and biomedical manufacturer stakeholders. To (a) briefly review pharmaceutical policy options to address health system affordability and (b) assess the acceptability of alternative policy options to health care payers and biomedical manufacturers before and after an Academy of Managed Care Pharmacy (AMCP) continuing pharmacy education (CPE) session. We searched MEDLINE and Cochran databases for pharmaceutical policy options addressing affordability. With input from a focus group of managed care professionals, we developed CPE session content and an 8-question survey focusing on the most promising policy options. We fielded the survey before and after the CPE session, which occurred as part of the 2016 AMCP Annual Meeting. We first conducted a chi-squared goodness-of-fit test to assess response distributions. Next, we tested how responses differed before and after by using an ordered logit and a multinomial logit to model Likert scale and unordered responses, respectively. Although risk-sharing payments over time remained the most favorable choice before (37%) and after (35%) the CPE session, this choice was closely followed by HealthCoin after the session, which increased in favorability from 4% to 33% of responses (P = 0.001). About half of the respondents (54%) indicated that legislative change is the most significant barrier to the implementation of any

  16. Stochastic modeling of consumer preferences for health care institutions.

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    Malhotra, N K

    1983-01-01

    This paper proposes a stochastic procedure for modeling consumer preferences via LOGIT analysis. First, a simple, non-technical exposition of the use of a stochastic approach in health care marketing is presented. Second, a study illustrating the application of the LOGIT model in assessing consumer preferences for hospitals is given. The paper concludes with several implications of the proposed approach.

  17. Random preferences towards bioenergy environmental externalities: a case study of woody biomass based electricity in the Southern United States

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    Andres Susaeta; Pankaj Lal; Janaki Alavalapati; Evan Mercer

    2011-01-01

    This paper contrasts alternate methodological approaches of investigating public preferences, the random parameter logit (RPL) where tastes and preferences of respondents are assumed to be heterogeneous and the conditional logit (CL) approach where tastes and preferences remain fixed for individuals. We conducted a choice experiment to assess preferences for woody...

  18. Patterns and Determinants of Double-Burden of Malnutrition among Rural Children: Evidence from China

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    Zhang, Nan; Bécares, Laia; Chandola, Tarani

    2016-01-01

    Chinese children are facing dual burden of malnutrition—coexistence of under-and over-nutrition. Little systematic evidence exists for explaining the simultaneous presence of under-and over-nutrition. This study aims to explore underlying mechanisms of under-and over-nutrition among children in rural China. This study used a nationwide longitudinal dataset of children (N = 5,017) from 9 provinces across China, with four exclusively categories of nutritional outcomes including under-nutrition (stunting and underweight), over-nutrition (overweight only including obesity), paradox (stunted overweight), with normal nutrition as reference. Multinomial logit models (Level-1: occasions; Level-2: children; Level-3: villages) were fitted which corrected for non-independence of observations due to geographic clustering and repeated observations of individuals. A mixture of risk factors at the individual, household and neighbourhood levels predicted under-and over-nutrition among children in rural China. Improved socioeconomic status and living in more urbanised villages reduced the risk of stunted overweight among rural children in China. Young girls appeared to have higher risk of under-nutrition, and the risk decreased with age more markedly than for boys up to age 5. From age 5 onwards, boys tended to have higher risk of under-nutrition than girls. Girls aged around 12 and older were less likely to suffer from under-nutrition, while boys’ higher risk of under-nutrition persisted throughout adolescence. Children were less likely to suffer from over-nutrition compared to normal nutrition. Boys tended to have an even lower risk of over-nutrition than girls and the gender difference widened with age until adolescence. Our results have important policy implications that improving household economic status, in particular, maternal education and health insurance for children, and living environment are important to enhance rural children’s nutritional status in China

  19. Assessment of empirical antibiotic therapy optimisation in six hospitals: an observational cohort study.

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    Braykov, Nikolay P; Morgan, Daniel J; Schweizer, Marin L; Uslan, Daniel Z; Kelesidis, Theodoros; Weisenberg, Scott A; Johannsson, Birgir; Young, Heather; Cantey, Joseph; Srinivasan, Arjun; Perencevich, Eli; Septimus, Edward; Laxminarayan, Ramanan

    2014-12-01

    Modification of empirical antimicrobials when warranted by culture results or clinical signs is recommended to control antimicrobial overuse and resistance. We aimed to assess the frequency with which patients were started on empirical antimicrobials, characteristics of the empirical regimen and the clinical characteristics of patients at the time of starting antimicrobials, patterns of changes to empirical therapy at different timepoints, and modifiable factors associated with changes to the initial empirical regimen in the first 5 days of therapy. We did a chart review of adult inpatients receiving one or more antimicrobials in six US hospitals on 4 days during 2009 and 2010. Our primary outcome was the modification of antimicrobial regimen on or before the 5th day of empirical therapy, analysed as a three-category variable. Bivariate analyses were used to establish demographic and clinical variables associated with the outcome. Variables with p values below 0·1 were included in a multivariable generalised linear latent and mixed model with multinomial logit link to adjust for clustering within hospitals and accommodate a non-binary outcome variable. Across the six study sites, 4119 (60%) of 6812 inpatients received antimicrobials. Of 1200 randomly selected patients with active antimicrobials, 730 (61%) met inclusion criteria. At the start of therapy, 220 (30%) patients were afebrile and had normal white blood cell counts. Appropriate cultures were collected from 432 (59%) patients, and 250 (58%) were negative. By the 5th day of therapy, 12·5% of empirical antimicrobials were escalated, 21·5% were narrowed or discontinued, and 66·4% were unchanged. Narrowing or discontinuation was more likely when cultures were collected at the start of therapy (adjusted OR 1·68, 95% CI 1·05-2·70) and no infection was noted on an initial radiological study (1·76, 1·11-2·79). Escalation was associated with multiple infection sites (2·54, 1·34-4·83) and a positive

  20. Health literacy and the determinants of obesity: a population-based survey of sixth grade school children in Taiwan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shih, Shu-Fang; Liu, Chieh-Hsing; Liao, Li-Ling; Osborne, Richard H

    2016-03-22

    Health literacy has become an important health policy and health promotion agenda item in recent years. It had been seen as a means to reduce health disparities and a critical empowerment strategy to increase people's control over their health. So far, most of health literacy studies mainly focus on adults with few studies investigating associations between child health literacy and health status. This study aimed to investigate the association between health literacy and body weight in Taiwan's sixth grade school children. Using a population-based survey, 162,209 sixth grade (11-12 years old) school children were assessed. The response rate at school level was 83%, with 70% of all students completing the survey. The Taiwan child health literacy assessment tool was applied and information on sex, ethnicity, self-reported health, and health behaviors were also collected. BMI was used to classify the children as underweight, normal, overweight, or obese. A multinomial logit model with robust estimation was used to explore associations between health literacy and the body weight with an adjustment for covariates. The sample consisted of 48.9% girls, 3.8% were indigenous and the mean BMI was 19.55 (SD = 3.93). About 6% of children self-reported bad or very bad health. The mean child health literacy score was 24.03 (SD = 6.12, scale range from 0 to 32). The overall proportion of obese children was 15.2%. Children in the highest health literacy quartile were less likely to be obese (12.4%) compared with the lowest quartile (17.4%). After controlling for gender, ethnicity, self-rated health, and health behaviors, children with higher health literacy were less likely to be obese (Relative Risk Ratio (RRR) = 0.94, p 1.10, p obese. This study demonstrates strong links between health literacy and obesity, even after adjusting for key potential confounders, and provides new insights into potential intervention points in school education for obesity prevention. Systematic