WorldWideScience

Sample records for multilayered ecosystem models

  1. Assessment of coastal management options by means of multilayered ecosystem models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nobre, Ana M.; Ferreira, João G.; Nunes, João P.; Yan, Xiaojun; Bricker, Suzanne; Corner, Richard; Groom, Steve; Gu, Haifeng; Hawkins, Anthony J. S.; Hutson, Rory; Lan, Dongzhao; Silva, João D. Lencart e.; Pascoe, Philip; Telfer, Trevor; Zhang, Xuelei; Zhu, Mingyuan

    2010-03-01

    This paper presents a multilayered ecosystem modelling approach that combines the simulation of the biogeochemistry of a coastal ecosystem with the simulation of the main forcing functions, such as catchment loading and aquaculture activities. This approach was developed as a tool for sustainable management of coastal ecosystems. A key feature is to simulate management scenarios that account for changes in multiple uses and enable assessment of cumulative impacts of coastal activities. The model was applied to a coastal zone in China with large aquaculture production and multiple catchment uses, and where management efforts to improve water quality are under way. Development scenarios designed in conjunction with local managers and aquaculture producers include the reduction of fish cages and treatment of wastewater. Despite the reduction in nutrient loading simulated in three different scenarios, inorganic nutrient concentrations in the bay were predicted to exceed the thresholds for poor quality defined by Chinese seawater quality legislation. For all scenarios there is still a Moderate High to High nutrient loading from the catchment, so further reductions might be enacted, together with additional decreases in fish cage culture. The model predicts that overall, shellfish production decreases by 10%-28% using any of these development scenarios, principally because shellfish growth is being sustained by the substances to be reduced for improvement of water quality. The model outcomes indicate that this may be counteracted by zoning of shellfish aquaculture at the ecosystem level in order to optimize trade-offs between productivity and environmental effects. The present case study exemplifies the value of multilayered ecosystem modelling as a tool for Integrated Coastal Zone Management and for the adoption of ecosystem approaches for marine resource management. This modelling approach can be applied worldwide, and may be particularly useful for the application of

  2. Multilayer Insulation Ascent Venting Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tramel, R. W.; Sutherlin, S. G.; Johnson, W. L.

    2017-01-01

    The thermal and venting transient experienced by tank-applied multilayer insulation (MLI) in the Earth-to-orbit environment is very dynamic and not well characterized. This new predictive code is a first principles-based engineering model which tracks the time history of the mass and temperature (internal energy) of the gas in each MLI layer. A continuum-based model is used for early portions of the trajectory while a kinetic theory-based model is used for the later portions of the trajectory, and the models are blended based on a reference mean free path. This new capability should improve understanding of the Earth-to-orbit transient and enable better insulation system designs for in-space cryogenic propellant systems.

  3. A MULTILAYER BIOCHEMICAL DRY DEPOSITION MODEL 1. MODEL FORMULATION

    Science.gov (United States)

    A multilayer biochemical dry deposition model has been developed based on the NOAA Multilayer Model (MLM) to study gaseous exchanges between the soil, plants, and the atmosphere. Most of the parameterizations and submodels have been updated or replaced. The numerical integration ...

  4. A MULTILAYER BIOCHEMICAL DRY DEPOSITION MODEL 2. MODEL EVALUATION

    Science.gov (United States)

    The multilayer biochemical dry deposition model (MLBC) described in the accompanying paper was tested against half-hourly eddy correlation data from six field sites under a wide range of climate conditions with various plant types. Modeled CO2, O3, SO2<...

  5. Modeling Delamination of Interfacial Corner Cracks in Multilayered Structures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Veluri, Badrinath (Badri); Jensen, Henrik Myhre

    2013-01-01

    Multilayered electronic components, typically of heterogeneous materials, delaminate under thermal and mechanical loading. A phenomenological model focused on modeling the shape of such interface cracks close to corners in layered interconnect structures for calculating the critical stress...

  6. A refined model for characterizing x-ray multilayers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oren, A.L.; Henke, B.L.

    1987-12-01

    The ability to quickly and accurately characterize arbitrary multilayers is very valuable for not only can we use the characterizations to predict the reflectivity of a multilayer for any soft x-ray wavelength, we also can generalize the results to apply to other multilayers of the same type. In addition, we can use the characterizations as a means of evaluating various sputtering environments and refining sputtering techniques to obtain better multilayers. In this report we have obtained improved characterizations for sample molybdenum-silicon and vanadium-silicon multilayers. However, we only examined five crystals overall, so the conclusions that we could draw about the structure of general multilayers is limited. Research involving many multilayers manufactured under the same sputtering conditions is clearly in order. In order to best understand multilayer structures it may be necessary to further refine our model, e.g., adopting a Gaussian form for the interface regions. With such improvements we can expect even better agreement with experimental values and continued concurrence with other characterization techniques. 18 refs., 30 figs., 7 tabs

  7. Reference Models for Multi-Layer Tissue Structures

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-09-01

    function of multi-layer tissues (etiology and management of pressure ulcers ). What was the impact on other disciplines? As part of the project, a data...simplification to develop cost -effective models of surface manipulation of multi-layer tissues. Deliverables. Specimen- (or subject) and region-specific...simplification to develop cost -effective models of surgical manipulation. Deliverables. Specimen-specific surrogate models of upper legs confirmed against data

  8. Cycling indices for ecosystem models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carney, J.H.; Gardner, R.H.; Mankin, J.B.; DeAngelis, D.L.

    1979-01-01

    The study of ecosystems is aided by representing structural and functional groups of organisms or processes as discrete components. A complex compartment model will explicitly map pathways from one compartment to another and specify transfer rates. This quantitative description allows insight into the dynamics of flow of nutrients, toxic chemicals, radionuclides, or energy. Three new indices that calculate compartment-specific probabilities of occurrence and recycling and illustrate the problem of applying these indices to ecosystem models are presented

  9. Clustering network layers with the strata multilayer stochastic block model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stanley, Natalie; Shai, Saray; Taylor, Dane; Mucha, Peter J

    2016-01-01

    Multilayer networks are a useful data structure for simultaneously capturing multiple types of relationships between a set of nodes. In such networks, each relational definition gives rise to a layer. While each layer provides its own set of information, community structure across layers can be collectively utilized to discover and quantify underlying relational patterns between nodes. To concisely extract information from a multilayer network, we propose to identify and combine sets of layers with meaningful similarities in community structure. In this paper, we describe the "strata multilayer stochastic block model" (sMLSBM), a probabilistic model for multilayer community structure. The central extension of the model is that there exist groups of layers, called "strata", which are defined such that all layers in a given stratum have community structure described by a common stochastic block model (SBM). That is, layers in a stratum exhibit similar node-to-community assignments and SBM probability parameters. Fitting the sMLSBM to a multilayer network provides a joint clustering that yields node-to-community and layer-to-stratum assignments, which cooperatively aid one another during inference. We describe an algorithm for separating layers into their appropriate strata and an inference technique for estimating the SBM parameters for each stratum. We demonstrate our method using synthetic networks and a multilayer network inferred from data collected in the Human Microbiome Project.

  10. The characterization of multilayers analyzers: Models and measurements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Henke, B.L.; Vejio, J.Y.; Tackaberry, R.E.; Yamada, H.T.

    1985-01-01

    A procedure is described for the detailed characterization of multilayer analyzers which can be effectively applied to their design, optimization and application for absolute x-ray spectrometry. An accurate analytical model has been developed that is based upon a simple modification of the dynamical Darwin-Prins theory to extend its application to finite multilayer systems. Its equivalence to the optical E and M solution of the Fresnel equations at each interface is demonstrated by detailed calculation comparisons for the reflectivity of a multilayer throughout the angular range of incidence of 0 to 90 0 . A special spectrograph and experimental method is described for the measurement of the absolute reflectivity characteristics of the multilayer. The experimental measurements at three photon energies in the 100-200 eV region are fit by the analytical modified Darwin-Prins equation (MDP) for I(θ), generating a detailed characterization of two ''state of the art'' multilayers, a sputtered tungsten-carbon of 2d ≅ 70 A and a molecular lead separate of 2d ≅ 100 A. The fitting parameters that are determined in this procedure are applied to help establish the structural characteristics of the particular multilayer

  11. Adventures in holistic ecosystem modelling: the cumberland basin ecosystem model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gordon, D. C.; Keizer, P. D.; Daborn, G. R.; Schwinghamer, P.; Silvert, W. L.

    A holistic ecosystem model has been developed for the Cumberland Basin, a turbid macrotidal estuary at the head of Canada's Bay of Fundy. The model was constructed as a group exercise involving several dozen scientists. Philosophy of approach and methods were patterned after the BOEDE Ems-Dollard modelling project. The model is one-dimensional, has 3 compartments and 3 boundaries, and is composed of 3 separate submodels (physical, pelagic and benthic). The 28 biological state variables cover the complete estuarine ecosystem and represent broad functional groups of organisms based on trophic relationships. Although still under development and not yet validated, the model has been verified and has reached the stage where most state variables provide reasonable output. The modelling process has stimulated interdisciplinary discussion, identified important data gaps and produced a quantitative tool which can be used to examine ecological hypotheses and determine critical environmental processes. As a result, Canadian scientists have a much better understanding of the Cumberland Basin ecosystem and are better able to provide competent advice on environmental management.

  12. Multilayer models of photosynthetic membranes. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brocklehurst, J R; Flanagan, M T

    1982-01-01

    The primary aim of this project has been to build an artificial membrane in which is incorporated, in a functional state, the protein bacteriorhodopsin responsible for generating an electrical potential difference across the membrane of the photosynthetic bacterium, halobacterium halobium, and to investigate the use of this artificial system as the basis of a solar cell. the bacteriorhodopsin has been incorporated into Langmuir-Blodgett multilayers. If ths supporting filter is then illuminated, a potential difference is generated between the two compartments. The lipid in the filter appears to act as a charge carrier for protons, the charge species that forms the electrochemical gradient generated by the bacteriorhodopsin when this molecule absorbs light. The internal resistances of such solar cells were determined and found to be so high that the cells could not be seriously considered as competitors with classical semiconductor cells. Multilayerswere deposited onto filters in which ion carriers that make the filters permeable to sodium ions had been dissolved in the paraffin. The photovoltage obtained indicated that protons transferred from one side of the filter to the other by the action of the bacteriorhodopsin were bing exchanged for sodium ions. A secondary aim of the project has been to examine the possibility of depositing mixed multilayers of a dye and a long chain quinone onto a semiconductor surface. A sensitizing multilayer has been prepared and the mobility of long chain quinones within the layers is high enough to warrant further research. However, it was found that, with the dyes and quinones used, quenched complexes were formed which would not act as sensitizers.

  13. Multilayer Stochastic Block Models Reveal the Multilayer Structure of Complex Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Toni Vallès-Català

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available In complex systems, the network of interactions we observe between systems components is the aggregate of the interactions that occur through different mechanisms or layers. Recent studies reveal that the existence of multiple interaction layers can have a dramatic impact in the dynamical processes occurring on these systems. However, these studies assume that the interactions between systems components in each one of the layers are known, while typically for real-world systems we do not have that information. Here, we address the issue of uncovering the different interaction layers from aggregate data by introducing multilayer stochastic block models (SBMs, a generalization of single-layer SBMs that considers different mechanisms of layer aggregation. First, we find the complete probabilistic solution to the problem of finding the optimal multilayer SBM for a given aggregate-observed network. Because this solution is computationally intractable, we propose an approximation that enables us to verify that multilayer SBMs are more predictive of network structure in real-world complex systems.

  14. Modeling Macroscopic Shape Distortions during Sintering of Multi-layers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tadesse Molla, Tesfaye

    as to help achieve defect free multi-layer components. The initial thickness ratio between the layers making the multi-layer has also significant effect on the extent of camber evolution depending on the material systems. During sintering of tubular bi-layer structures, tangential (hoop) stresses are very...... large compared to radial stresses. The maximum value of hoop stress, which can generate processing defects such as cracks and coating peel-offs, occurs at the beginning of the sintering cycle. Unlike most of the models defining material properties based on porosity and grain size only, the multi...... (firing). However, unintended features like shape instabilities of samples, cracks or delamination of layers may arise during sintering of multi-layer composites. Among these defects, macroscopic shape distortions in the samples can cause problems in the assembly or performance of the final component...

  15. Modelling of multilayer piezoelectric transducers for echographic applications Equivalent circuits

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ramos, A.; Riera, E.; San Emeterio, J.L.; Sanz, P.T.

    1988-01-01

    In this paper, the main equivalent circuits of pulse-echo, single element, multilayer piezoelectric transducers, are analysed. The analogy of matching layers with lossless transmission lines is described. Finally, using the KLM model, the effects of backing and matching layers on the bandwidth and impulse response is analysed. (Author)

  16. Modeling release of chemicals from multilayer materials into food

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huang Xiu-Ling

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The migration of chemicals from materials into food is predictable by various mathematical models. In this article, a general mathematical model is developed to quantify the release of chemicals through multilayer packaging films based on Fick's diffusion. The model is solved numerically to elucidate the effects of different diffusivity values of different layers, distribution of chemical between two adjacent layers and between material and food, mass transfer at the interface of material and food on the migration process.

  17. A topological multilayer model of the human body.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barbeito, Antonio; Painho, Marco; Cabral, Pedro; O'Neill, João

    2015-11-04

    Geographical information systems deal with spatial databases in which topological models are described with alphanumeric information. Its graphical interfaces implement the multilayer concept and provide powerful interaction tools. In this study, we apply these concepts to the human body creating a representation that would allow an interactive, precise, and detailed anatomical study. A vector surface component of the human body is built using a three-dimensional (3-D) reconstruction methodology. This multilayer concept is implemented by associating raster components with the corresponding vector surfaces, which include neighbourhood topology enabling spatial analysis. A root mean square error of 0.18 mm validated the three-dimensional reconstruction technique of internal anatomical structures. The expansion of the identification and the development of a neighbourhood analysis function are the new tools provided in this model.

  18. Modeling Temperature Dependent Singlet Exciton Dynamics in Multilayered Organic Nanofibers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    de Sousa, Leonardo Evaristo; de Oliveira Neto, Pedro Henrique; Kjelstrup-Hansen, Jakob

    2018-01-01

    Organic nanofibers have shown potential for application in optoelectronic devices because of the tunability of their optical properties. These properties are influenced by the electronic structure of the molecules that compose the nanofibers, but also by the behavior of the excitons generated...... dynamics in multilayered organic nanofibers. By simulating absorption and emission spectra, the possible Förster transitions are identified. Then, a Kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC) model is employed in combination with a genetic algorithm to theoretically reproduce time resolved photoluminescence measurements...

  19. Assessing Ecosystem Model Performance in Semiarid Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, A.; Dietze, M.; Scott, R. L.; Biederman, J. A.

    2017-12-01

    In ecosystem process modelling, comparing outputs to benchmark datasets observed in the field is an important way to validate models, allowing the modelling community to track model performance over time and compare models at specific sites. Multi-model comparison projects as well as models themselves have largely been focused on temperate forests and similar biomes. Semiarid regions, on the other hand, are underrepresented in land surface and ecosystem modelling efforts, and yet will be disproportionately impacted by disturbances such as climate change due to their sensitivity to changes in the water balance. Benchmarking models at semiarid sites is an important step in assessing and improving models' suitability for predicting the impact of disturbance on semiarid ecosystems. In this study, several ecosystem models were compared at a semiarid grassland in southwestern Arizona using PEcAn, or the Predictive Ecosystem Analyzer, an open-source eco-informatics toolbox ideal for creating the repeatable model workflows necessary for benchmarking. Models included SIPNET, DALEC, JULES, ED2, GDAY, LPJ-GUESS, MAESPA, CLM, CABLE, and FATES. Comparison between model output and benchmarks such as net ecosystem exchange (NEE) tended to produce high root mean square error and low correlation coefficients, reflecting poor simulation of seasonality and the tendency for models to create much higher carbon sources than observed. These results indicate that ecosystem models do not currently adequately represent semiarid ecosystem processes.

  20. A Size-based Ecosystem Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ravn-Jonsen, Lars

     Ecosystem Management requires models that can link the ecosystem level to the operation level. This link can be created by an ecosystem production model. Because the function of the individual fish in the marine ecosystem, seen in trophic context, is closely related to its size, the model groups...... fish according to size. The model summarises individual predation events into ecosystem level properties, and thereby uses the law of conversation of mass as a framework. This paper provides the background, the conceptual model, basic assumptions, integration of fishing activities, mathematical...... the predator--prey interaction, (ii) mass balance in the predator--prey allocation, and (iii) mortality and somatic growth as a consequence of the predator--prey allocation. By incorporating additional assumptions, the model can be extended to other dimensions of the ecosystem, for example, space or species...

  1. Ensemble ecosystem modeling for predicting ecosystem response to predator reintroduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, Christopher M; Gordon, Ascelin; Bode, Michael

    2017-04-01

    Introducing a new or extirpated species to an ecosystem is risky, and managers need quantitative methods that can predict the consequences for the recipient ecosystem. Proponents of keystone predator reintroductions commonly argue that the presence of the predator will restore ecosystem function, but this has not always been the case, and mathematical modeling has an important role to play in predicting how reintroductions will likely play out. We devised an ensemble modeling method that integrates species interaction networks and dynamic community simulations and used it to describe the range of plausible consequences of 2 keystone-predator reintroductions: wolves (Canis lupus) to Yellowstone National Park and dingoes (Canis dingo) to a national park in Australia. Although previous methods for predicting ecosystem responses to such interventions focused on predicting changes around a given equilibrium, we used Lotka-Volterra equations to predict changing abundances through time. We applied our method to interaction networks for wolves in Yellowstone National Park and for dingoes in Australia. Our model replicated the observed dynamics in Yellowstone National Park and produced a larger range of potential outcomes for the dingo network. However, we also found that changes in small vertebrates or invertebrates gave a good indication about the potential future state of the system. Our method allowed us to predict when the systems were far from equilibrium. Our results showed that the method can also be used to predict which species may increase or decrease following a reintroduction and can identify species that are important to monitor (i.e., species whose changes in abundance give extra insight into broad changes in the system). Ensemble ecosystem modeling can also be applied to assess the ecosystem-wide implications of other types of interventions including assisted migration, biocontrol, and invasive species eradication. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

  2. Modeling the Personal Health Ecosystem.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blobel, Bernd; Brochhausen, Mathias; Ruotsalainen, Pekka

    2018-01-01

    Complex ecosystems like the pHealth one combine different domains represented by a huge variety of different actors (human beings, organizations, devices, applications, components) belonging to different policy domains, coming from different disciplines, deploying different methodologies, terminologies, and ontologies, offering different levels of knowledge, skills, and experiences, acting in different scenarios and accommodating different business cases to meet the intended business objectives. For correctly modeling such systems, a system-oriented, architecture-centric, ontology-based, policy-driven approach is inevitable, thereby following established Good Modeling Best Practices. However, most of the existing standards, specifications and tools for describing, representing, implementing and managing health (information) systems reflect the advancement of information and communication technology (ICT) represented by different evolutionary levels of data modeling. The paper presents a methodology for integrating, adopting and advancing models, standards, specifications as well as implemented systems and components on the way towards the aforementioned ultimate approach, so meeting the challenge we face when transforming health systems towards ubiquitous, personalized, predictive, preventive, participative, and cognitive health and social care.

  3. A novel multilayer model with controllable mechanical properties for magnesium-based bone plates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Juncen; Huang, Wanru; Li, Qing; She, Zuxin; Chen, Funan; Li, Longqin

    2015-04-01

    Proper mechanical properties are essential for the clinical application of magnesium-based implants. In the present work, a novel multilayer model composed of three layers with desirable features was developed. The modulus of the multilayer model can be adjusted by changing the thickness of each layer. To combine three layers and improve the corrosion resistance of the whole multilayer model, the polycaprolactone coating was employed. In the immersion test, pH values, the concentration of released magnesium ions, and weight loss indicate that the corrosion rate of multilayer models is considerable lower than that of the one-layer bare substrate. The three-point bending test, which is used to examine models' mechanical properties, shows that the flexural modulus of multilayer models is reduced effectively. In addition, the mechanical degradation of multilayer models is more stable, compared to the one-layer substrate.

  4. Modeling sintering of multilayers under influence of gravity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frandsen, Henrik Lund; Olevsky, Eugene; Tadesse Molla, Tesfaye

    2013-01-01

    , which describes the combined effect of sintering and gravity of thin multilayers, is derived and later compared with experimental results. It allows for consideration of both uniaxial and biaxial stress states. The model is based on the Skorohod-Olevsky viscous sintering framework, the classical...... laminate theory and the elastic-viscoelastic correspondence principle. The modeling approach is then applied to illustrate the effect of gravity during sintering of thin layers of cerium gadolinium oxide (CGO), and it is found to be significant. © 2012 The American Ceramic Society....

  5. Puako Ecosystem Model Output Data

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Coral reefs provide a wide range of ecosystem services that are valued differently by different users. Managers are challenged to comprehensively address the full...

  6. Ecosystem Based Business Model of Smart Grid

    OpenAIRE

    Lundgaard, Morten Raahauge; Ma, Zheng; Jørgensen, Bo Nørregaard

    2015-01-01

    This paper tries to investigate the ecosystem based business model in a smart grid infrastructure and the potential of value capture in the highly complex macro infrastructure such as smart grid. This paper proposes an alternative perspective to study the smart grid business ecosystem to support the infrastructural challenges, such as the interoperability of business components for smart grid. So far little research has explored the business ecosystem in the smart grid concept. The study on t...

  7. Finite element modeling of multilayered structures of fish scales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chandler, Mei Qiang; Allison, Paul G; Rodriguez, Rogie I; Moser, Robert D; Kennedy, Alan J

    2014-12-01

    The interlinked fish scales of Atractosteus spatula (alligator gar) and Polypterus senegalus (gray and albino bichir) are effective multilayered armor systems for protecting fish from threats such as aggressive conspecific interactions or predation. Both types of fish scales have multi-layered structures with a harder and stiffer outer layer, and softer and more compliant inner layers. However, there are differences in relative layer thickness, property mismatch between layers, the property gradations and nanostructures in each layer. The fracture paths and patterns of both scales under microindentation loads were different. In this work, finite element models of fish scales of A. spatula and P. senegalus were built to investigate the mechanics of their multi-layered structures under penetration loads. The models simulate a rigid microindenter penetrating the fish scales quasi-statically to understand the observed experimental results. Study results indicate that the different fracture patterns and crack paths observed in the experiments were related to the different stress fields caused by the differences in layer thickness, and spatial distribution of the elastic and plastic properties in the layers, and the differences in interface properties. The parametric studies and experimental results suggest that smaller fish such as P. senegalus may have adopted a thinner outer layer for light-weighting and improved mobility, and meanwhile adopted higher strength and higher modulus at the outer layer, and stronger interface properties to prevent ring cracking and interface cracking, and larger fish such as A. spatula and Arapaima gigas have lower strength and lower modulus at the outer layers and weaker interface properties, but have adopted thicker outer layers to provide adequate protection against ring cracking and interface cracking, possibly because weight is less of a concern relative to the smaller fish such as P. senegalus. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  8. A Reduced-Order Model for Evaluating the Dynamic Response of Multilayer Plates to Impulsive Loads

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-04-12

    A REDUCED-ORDER MODEL FOR EVALUATING THE DYNAMIC RESPONSE OF MULTILAYER PLATES TO IMPULSIVE LOADS Weiran Jiang, Alyssa Bennett, Nickolas...innovative multilayer materials or structures to optimize the dynamic performance as a mechanism to absorb and spread energy from an impulsive load...models. • Optimizing the structural weight and levels of protection of the multilayer plates with a good combination of materials. Technical Approach 2016

  9. Mathematical model for optimization of multilayer submerged-arc welding of frame equipment of power units

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pankov, V.V.; Chernyshev, G.G.; Kozlov, N.E.

    1987-01-01

    A mathematical model for optimization of multilayer submerged arc welding of frame equipment of power units is constructed. The variation-energy method permits to construct the universal mathematical model for strengthening formation of a single bead; the method is reasonable for simulation of a multilayer welded joint. Minimization of the distance between maximum and minimum layer height of a built-up metal is the necessary condition for qualitative formation of the multilayer joint. One can calculate in real time scale the optimal vector of maximally ten parameters under the multilayer welding condition immediately after change in the grooving width using the developed mathematical model of optimization

  10. Ecosystem Based Business Model of Smart Grid

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lundgaard, Morten Raahauge; Ma, Zheng; Jørgensen, Bo Nørregaard

    2015-01-01

    This paper tries to investigate the ecosystem based business model in a smart grid infrastructure and the potential of value capture in the highly complex macro infrastructure such as smart grid. This paper proposes an alternative perspective to study the smart grid business ecosystem to support...... the infrastructural challenges, such as the interoperability of business components for smart grid. So far little research has explored the business ecosystem in the smart grid concept. The study on the smart grid with the theory of business ecosystem may open opportunities to understand market catalysts. This study...... contributes an understanding of business ecosystem applicable for smart grid. Smart grid infrastructure is an intricate business ecosystem, which have several intentions to deliver the value proposition and what it should be. The findings help to identify and capture value from markets....

  11. Scientists' Needs in Software Ecosystem Modeling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jansen, Slinger; Handoyo, Eko; Alves, C.

    2015-01-01

    Currently the landscape of software ecosystem modelling methods and languages is like Babel after the fall of the tower: there are many methods and languages available and interchanging data between researchers and organizations that actively govern their ecosystem, is practically impossible. The

  12. Multilayer modelling of stainless steel with a nanocrystallised superficial layer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Petit, J. [Laboratoire Energetique Mecanique Electromagnetisme (LEME), EA4416, Universite Paris Ouest, 92410 Ville d' Avray (France); Waltz, L., E-mail: laurent.waltz@univ-montp2.fr [Laboratoire de Mecanique et Genie Civil de Montpellier (LMGC), University of Montpellier II, Place Eugene Bataillon, 34000 Montpellier (France); Montay, G.; Retraint, D.; Roos, A.; Francois, M. [Institut Charles Delaunay - LASMIS, UMR CNRS 6279, University of Technology of Troyes, 10010 Troyes (France)

    2012-02-28

    Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer SMAT has been used for nanocrystallisation of an austenitic stainless steel. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The mechanical response of the nano-phase has been obtained by an indirect method. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Minimisation of a stress formulated objective function. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The model predicts the strain at which diffuse necking occurs. - Abstract: In order to obtain the macroscopic mechanical response of a 316L stainless steel, nanocrystallised by Surface Mechanical Attrition Treatment (SMAT), a multilayer model is proposed. The constitutive behaviour of each layer is determined from tensile tests or by an inverse method and its thickness is evaluated from Scanning and Transmission Electron Microscopy (SEM and TEM) analyses and local hardness measurements. The consistency of the model is verified by its ability to predict the strain at which diffuse necking occurs.

  13. Water adsorption on goethite: Application of multilayer adsorption models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hatch, C. D.; Tumminello, R.; Meredith, R.

    2016-12-01

    Adsorbed water on the surface of atmospheric mineral dust has recently been shown to significantly affect the ability of mineral dust aerosol to act as cloud condensation nuclei. We have studied water adsorption as a function of relative humidity (RH) on goethite (α-FeO(OH)), a common component of atmospheric mineral dust. The goethite surface area and particle size was determined using BET analysis and with N2 as an adsorbate and scanning electron microscopy, respectively. Water adsorption on the sample was monitored using horizontal attenuated total reflectance Fourier transform infrared (HATR-FTIR) spectroscopy equipped with a flow cell. Water content was determined using Beer's law and the optical constants for bulk water. The results were analyzed using Type II adsorption isotherms to model multilayer adsorption, including BET (Brunauer, Emmet and Teller), FHH (Frenkel, Halsey and Hill) and Freundlich. BET fits to experimental data provide parameters of monolayer coverage, while the FHH and Freundlich isotherms provide insights into multilayer adsorption mechanisms. Results indicate that goethite contains 5% H2O by mass at 50% RH, which increases to 12% by mass at 90% RH. Adsorption parameters and experimental results will be presented.

  14. Parallel Computing for Terrestrial Ecosystem Carbon Modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Dali; Post, Wilfred M.; Ricciuto, Daniel M.; Berry, Michael

    2011-01-01

    Terrestrial ecosystems are a primary component of research on global environmental change. Observational and modeling research on terrestrial ecosystems at the global scale, however, has lagged behind their counterparts for oceanic and atmospheric systems, largely because the unique challenges associated with the tremendous diversity and complexity of terrestrial ecosystems. There are 8 major types of terrestrial ecosystem: tropical rain forest, savannas, deserts, temperate grassland, deciduous forest, coniferous forest, tundra, and chaparral. The carbon cycle is an important mechanism in the coupling of terrestrial ecosystems with climate through biological fluxes of CO 2 . The influence of terrestrial ecosystems on atmospheric CO 2 can be modeled via several means at different timescales. Important processes include plant dynamics, change in land use, as well as ecosystem biogeography. Over the past several decades, many terrestrial ecosystem models (see the 'Model developments' section) have been developed to understand the interactions between terrestrial carbon storage and CO 2 concentration in the atmosphere, as well as the consequences of these interactions. Early TECMs generally adapted simple box-flow exchange models, in which photosynthetic CO 2 uptake and respiratory CO 2 release are simulated in an empirical manner with a small number of vegetation and soil carbon pools. Demands on kinds and amount of information required from global TECMs have grown. Recently, along with the rapid development of parallel computing, spatially explicit TECMs with detailed process based representations of carbon dynamics become attractive, because those models can readily incorporate a variety of additional ecosystem processes (such as dispersal, establishment, growth, mortality etc.) and environmental factors (such as landscape position, pest populations, disturbances, resource manipulations, etc.), and provide information to frame policy options for climate change

  15. A multilayer model to simulate rocket exhaust clouds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Davidson Martins Moreira

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the MSDEF (Modelo Simulador da Dispersão de Efluentes de Foguetes, in Portuguese model, which represents the solution for time-dependent advection-diffusion equation applying the Laplace transform considering the Atmospheric Boundary Layer as a multilayer system. This solution allows a time evolution description of the concentration field emitted from a source during a release lasting time tr , and it takes into account deposition velocity, first-order chemical reaction, gravitational settling, precipitation scavenging, and plume rise effect. This solution is suitable for describing critical events relative to accidental release of toxic, flammable, or explosive substances. A qualitative evaluation of the model to simulate rocket exhaust clouds is showed.

  16. Ecosystem Model Skill Assessment. Yes We Can!

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olsen, Erik; Fay, Gavin; Gaichas, Sarah; Gamble, Robert; Lucey, Sean; Link, Jason S

    2016-01-01

    Accelerated changes to global ecosystems call for holistic and integrated analyses of past, present and future states under various pressures to adequately understand current and projected future system states. Ecosystem models can inform management of human activities in a complex and changing environment, but are these models reliable? Ensuring that models are reliable for addressing management questions requires evaluating their skill in representing real-world processes and dynamics. Skill has been evaluated for just a limited set of some biophysical models. A range of skill assessment methods have been reviewed but skill assessment of full marine ecosystem models has not yet been attempted. We assessed the skill of the Northeast U.S. (NEUS) Atlantis marine ecosystem model by comparing 10-year model forecasts with observed data. Model forecast performance was compared to that obtained from a 40-year hindcast. Multiple metrics (average absolute error, root mean squared error, modeling efficiency, and Spearman rank correlation), and a suite of time-series (species biomass, fisheries landings, and ecosystem indicators) were used to adequately measure model skill. Overall, the NEUS model performed above average and thus better than expected for the key species that had been the focus of the model tuning. Model forecast skill was comparable to the hindcast skill, showing that model performance does not degenerate in a 10-year forecast mode, an important characteristic for an end-to-end ecosystem model to be useful for strategic management purposes. We identify best-practice approaches for end-to-end ecosystem model skill assessment that would improve both operational use of other ecosystem models and future model development. We show that it is possible to not only assess the skill of a complicated marine ecosystem model, but that it is necessary do so to instill confidence in model results and encourage their use for strategic management. Our methods are applicable

  17. Trialogue model for ecosystem governance.

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Hattingh, J

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available form and timescale to ensure good governance. In essence, good governance promotes democratic management of ecosystems and, by inference, prudentwater resourcemanagement. Consequently, it is likely that the type of governance that occurs most often... that, unless the imperative for civic science to support democratic governance is institutionalised through policy and strategy, it is unlikely that there will be sufficient human and financial investment in civic science as a means to promote...

  18. Modeling soil moisture memory in savanna ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gou, S.; Miller, G. R.

    2011-12-01

    Antecedent soil conditions create an ecosystem's "memory" of past rainfall events. Such soil moisture memory effects may be observed over a range of timescales, from daily to yearly, and lead to feedbacks between hydrological and ecosystem processes. In this study, we modeled the soil moisture memory effect on savanna ecosystems in California, Arizona, and Africa, using a system dynamics model created to simulate the ecohydrological processes at the plot-scale. The model was carefully calibrated using soil moisture and evapotranspiration data collected at three study sites. The model was then used to simulate scenarios with various initial soil moisture conditions and antecedent precipitation regimes, in order to study the soil moisture memory effects on the evapotranspiration of understory and overstory species. Based on the model results, soil texture and antecedent precipitation regime impact the redistribution of water within soil layers, potentially causing deeper soil layers to influence the ecosystem for a longer time. Of all the study areas modeled, soil moisture memory of California savanna ecosystem site is replenished and dries out most rapidly. Thus soil moisture memory could not maintain the high rate evapotranspiration for more than a few days without incoming rainfall event. On the contrary, soil moisture memory of Arizona savanna ecosystem site lasts the longest time. The plants with different root depths respond to different memory effects; shallow-rooted species mainly respond to the soil moisture memory in the shallow soil. The growing season of grass is largely depended on the soil moisture memory of the top 25cm soil layer. Grass transpiration is sensitive to the antecedent precipitation events within daily to weekly timescale. Deep-rooted plants have different responses since these species can access to the deeper soil moisture memory with longer time duration Soil moisture memory does not have obvious impacts on the phenology of woody plants

  19. Using the Multilayer Free-Surface Flow Model to Solve Wave Problems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Prokof’ev, V. A., E-mail: ProkofyevVA@vniig.ru [B. E. Vedeneev All-Russia Research Institute of Hydraulic Engineering (VNIIG) (Russian Federation)

    2017-01-15

    A method is presented for changing over from a single-layer shallow-water model to a multilayer model with hydrostatic pressure profile and, then, to a multilayer model with nonhydrostatic pressure profile. The method does not require complex procedures for solving the discrete Poisson’s equation and features high computation efficiency. The results of validating the algorithm against experimental data critical for the numerical dissipation of the numerical scheme are presented. Examples are considered.

  20. Modeling temperature dependent singlet exciton dynamics in multilayered organic nanofibers

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Sousa, Leonardo Evaristo; de Oliveira Neto, Pedro Henrique; Kjelstrup-Hansen, Jakob; da Silva Filho, Demétrio Antônio

    2018-05-01

    Organic nanofibers have shown potential for application in optoelectronic devices because of the tunability of their optical properties. These properties are influenced by the electronic structure of the molecules that compose the nanofibers and also by the behavior of the excitons generated in the material. Exciton diffusion by means of Förster resonance energy transfer is responsible, for instance, for the change with temperature of colors in the light emitted by systems composed of different types of nanofibers. To study in detail this mechanism, we model temperature dependent singlet exciton dynamics in multilayered organic nanofibers. By simulating absorption and emission spectra, the possible Förster transitions are identified. Then, a kinetic Monte Carlo model is employed in combination with a genetic algorithm to theoretically reproduce time-resolved photoluminescence measurements for several temperatures. This procedure allows for the obtainment of different information regarding exciton diffusion in such a system, including temperature effects on the Förster transfer efficiency and the activation energy of the Förster mechanism. The method is general and may be employed for different systems where exciton diffusion plays a role.

  1. Multilayer modeling and analysis of human brain networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-01-01

    Abstract Understanding how the human brain is structured, and how its architecture is related to function, is of paramount importance for a variety of applications, including but not limited to new ways to prevent, deal with, and cure brain diseases, such as Alzheimer’s or Parkinson’s, and psychiatric disorders, such as schizophrenia. The recent advances in structural and functional neuroimaging, together with the increasing attitude toward interdisciplinary approaches involving computer science, mathematics, and physics, are fostering interesting results from computational neuroscience that are quite often based on the analysis of complex network representation of the human brain. In recent years, this representation experienced a theoretical and computational revolution that is breaching neuroscience, allowing us to cope with the increasing complexity of the human brain across multiple scales and in multiple dimensions and to model structural and functional connectivity from new perspectives, often combined with each other. In this work, we will review the main achievements obtained from interdisciplinary research based on magnetic resonance imaging and establish de facto, the birth of multilayer network analysis and modeling of the human brain. PMID:28327916

  2. Radon diffusion through multilayer earthen covers: models and simulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mayer, D.W.; Oster, C.A.; Nelson, R.W.; Gee, G.W.

    1981-09-01

    A capability to model and analyze the fundamental interactions that influence the diffusion of radon gas through uranium mill tailings and cover systems has been investigated. The purpose of this study is to develop the theoretical basis for modeling radon diffusion and to develop an understanding of the fundamental interactions that influence radon diffusion. This study develops the theoretical basis for modeling radon diffusion in one, two and three dimensions. The theory has been incorporated into three computer models that are used to analyze several tailings and cover configurations. This report contains a discussion of the theoretical basis for modeling radon diffusion, a discussion of the computer models used to analyze uranium mill tailings and multilayered cover systems, and presents the results that have been obtained. The study has been conducted using a four-phase approach. The first phase develops the solution to the steady-state radon-diffusion equation in one-dimensieered barriers; disposal charge analysis; analysis of spent fuel policy implementation; spent f water. Field measurements and observations are reported for each site. Analytical data and field measurements are presented in tables and maps. Uranium concentrations in the sediments which were above detection limits ranged from 0.10 t 51.2 ppM. The mean of the logarithms of the uranium concentrations was 0.53. A group of high uranium concentrations occurs near the junctions of quadrangles AB, AC, BB, a 200 mK. In case 2), x-ray studies of isotopic phase separation in 3 He-- 4 He bcc solids were carried out by B. A. Fraass

  3. Approaches to modelling hydrology and ecosystem interactions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silberstein, Richard P.

    2014-05-01

    As the pressures of industry, agriculture and mining on groundwater resources increase there is a burgeoning un-met need to be able to capture these multiple, direct and indirect stresses in a formal framework that will enable better assessment of impact scenarios. While there are many catchment hydrological models and there are some models that represent ecological states and change (e.g. FLAMES, Liedloff and Cook, 2007), these have not been linked in any deterministic or substantive way. Without such coupled eco-hydrological models quantitative assessments of impacts from water use intensification on water dependent ecosystems under changing climate are difficult, if not impossible. The concept would include facility for direct and indirect water related stresses that may develop around mining and well operations, climate stresses, such as rainfall and temperature, biological stresses, such as diseases and invasive species, and competition such as encroachment from other competing land uses. Indirect water impacts could be, for example, a change in groundwater conditions has an impact on stream flow regime, and hence aquatic ecosystems. This paper reviews previous work examining models combining ecology and hydrology with a view to developing a conceptual framework linking a biophysically defensable model that combines ecosystem function with hydrology. The objective is to develop a model capable of representing the cumulative impact of multiple stresses on water resources and associated ecosystem function.

  4. Improved SVR Model for Multi-Layer Buildup Factor Calculation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Trontl, K.; Pevec, D.; Smuc, T.

    2006-01-01

    The accuracy of point kernel method applied in gamma ray dose rate calculations in shielding design and radiation safety analysis is limited by the accuracy of buildup factors used in calculations. Although buildup factors for single-layer shields are well defined and understood, buildup factors for stratified shields represent a complex physical problem that is hard to express in mathematical terms. The traditional approach for expressing buildup factors of multi-layer shields is through semi-empirical formulas obtained by fitting the results of transport theory or Monte Carlo calculations. Such an approach requires an ad-hoc definition of the fitting function and often results with numerous and usually inadequately explained and defined correction factors added to the final empirical formula. Even more, finally obtained formulas are generally limited to a small number of predefined combinations of materials within relatively small range of gamma ray energies and shield thicknesses. Recently, a new approach has been suggested by the authors involving one of machine learning techniques called Support Vector Machines, i.e., Support Vector Regression (SVR). Preliminary investigations performed for double-layer shields revealed great potential of the method, but also pointed out some drawbacks of the developed model, mostly related to the selection of one of the parameters describing the problem (material atomic number), and the method in which the model was designed to evolve during the learning process. It is the aim of this paper to introduce a new parameter (single material buildup factor) that is to replace the existing material atomic number as an input parameter. The comparison of two models generated by different input parameters has been performed. The second goal is to improve the evolution process of learning, i.e., the experimental computational procedure that provides a framework for automated construction of complex regression models of predefined

  5. Improving Marine Ecosystem Models with Biochemical Tracers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pethybridge, Heidi R.; Choy, C. Anela; Polovina, Jeffrey J.; Fulton, Elizabeth A.

    2018-01-01

    Empirical data on food web dynamics and predator-prey interactions underpin ecosystem models, which are increasingly used to support strategic management of marine resources. These data have traditionally derived from stomach content analysis, but new and complementary forms of ecological data are increasingly available from biochemical tracer techniques. Extensive opportunities exist to improve the empirical robustness of ecosystem models through the incorporation of biochemical tracer data and derived indices, an area that is rapidly expanding because of advances in analytical developments and sophisticated statistical techniques. Here, we explore the trophic information required by ecosystem model frameworks (species, individual, and size based) and match them to the most commonly used biochemical tracers (bulk tissue and compound-specific stable isotopes, fatty acids, and trace elements). Key quantitative parameters derived from biochemical tracers include estimates of diet composition, niche width, and trophic position. Biochemical tracers also provide powerful insight into the spatial and temporal variability of food web structure and the characterization of dominant basal and microbial food web groups. A major challenge in incorporating biochemical tracer data into ecosystem models is scale and data type mismatches, which can be overcome with greater knowledge exchange and numerical approaches that transform, integrate, and visualize data.

  6. Modelling radiocesium fluxes in forest ecosystems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shaw, G.; Kliashtorin, A.; Mamikhin, S.; Shcheglov, A.; Rafferty, B.; Dvornik, A.; Zhuchenko, T.; Kuchma, N.

    1996-01-01

    Monitoring of radiocesium inventories and fluxes has been carried out in forest ecosystems in Ukraine, Belarus and Ireland to determine distributions and rates of migration. This information has been used to construct and calibrate mathematical models which are being used to predict the likely longevity of contamination of forests and forest products such as timber following the Chernobyl accident

  7. Lessons learned for spatial modelling of ecosystem services in support of ecosystem accounting

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schroter, M.; Remme, R.P.; Sumarga, E.; Barton, D.N.; Hein, L.G.

    2015-01-01

    Assessment of ecosystem services through spatial modelling plays a key role in ecosystem accounting. Spatial models for ecosystem services try to capture spatial heterogeneity with high accuracy. This endeavour, however, faces several practical constraints. In this article we analyse the trade-offs

  8. Maximum entropy models of ecosystem functioning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bertram, Jason

    2014-01-01

    Using organism-level traits to deduce community-level relationships is a fundamental problem in theoretical ecology. This problem parallels the physical one of using particle properties to deduce macroscopic thermodynamic laws, which was successfully achieved with the development of statistical physics. Drawing on this parallel, theoretical ecologists from Lotka onwards have attempted to construct statistical mechanistic theories of ecosystem functioning. Jaynes’ broader interpretation of statistical mechanics, which hinges on the entropy maximisation algorithm (MaxEnt), is of central importance here because the classical foundations of statistical physics do not have clear ecological analogues (e.g. phase space, dynamical invariants). However, models based on the information theoretic interpretation of MaxEnt are difficult to interpret ecologically. Here I give a broad discussion of statistical mechanical models of ecosystem functioning and the application of MaxEnt in these models. Emphasising the sample frequency interpretation of MaxEnt, I show that MaxEnt can be used to construct models of ecosystem functioning which are statistical mechanical in the traditional sense using a savanna plant ecology model as an example

  9. Maximum entropy models of ecosystem functioning

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bertram, Jason, E-mail: jason.bertram@anu.edu.au [Research School of Biology, The Australian National University, Canberra ACT 0200 (Australia)

    2014-12-05

    Using organism-level traits to deduce community-level relationships is a fundamental problem in theoretical ecology. This problem parallels the physical one of using particle properties to deduce macroscopic thermodynamic laws, which was successfully achieved with the development of statistical physics. Drawing on this parallel, theoretical ecologists from Lotka onwards have attempted to construct statistical mechanistic theories of ecosystem functioning. Jaynes’ broader interpretation of statistical mechanics, which hinges on the entropy maximisation algorithm (MaxEnt), is of central importance here because the classical foundations of statistical physics do not have clear ecological analogues (e.g. phase space, dynamical invariants). However, models based on the information theoretic interpretation of MaxEnt are difficult to interpret ecologically. Here I give a broad discussion of statistical mechanical models of ecosystem functioning and the application of MaxEnt in these models. Emphasising the sample frequency interpretation of MaxEnt, I show that MaxEnt can be used to construct models of ecosystem functioning which are statistical mechanical in the traditional sense using a savanna plant ecology model as an example.

  10. Modeling for Ecosystem Services: Challenges and Opportunities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guswa, A. J.; Brauman, K. A.; Ghile, Y.

    2012-12-01

    Ecosystem services are those values provided to human society by the structure and processes of ecosystems and landscapes. Water-related services include the transformation of precipitation impulses into supplies of water for hydropower, irrigation, and industrial and municipal uses, the retention and removal of applied nutrients and pollutants, flood-damage mitigation, recreation, and the provision of cultural and aesthetic values. Incorporation of changes to the value of these services in land-use planning and decision making requires identification of the relevant services, engagement of stakeholders, knowledge of how land-use changes impact water quality, quantity, and timing, and mechanisms for putting value on the hydrologic and biogeochemical changes. We present three examples that highlight the characteristics, challenges, and opportunities associated with prototypical decisions that incorporate ecosystem services values: scenario analysis, payment for ecosystem services, and optimal spatial planning. Through these examples, we emphasize the challenges of data availability, model resolution and complexity, and attribution of value. We also provide some suggestions for ways forward.

  11. Modeling and Security in Cloud Ecosystems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eduardo B. Fernandez

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Clouds do not work in isolation but interact with other clouds and with a variety of systems either developed by the same provider or by external entities with the purpose to interact with them; forming then an ecosystem. A software ecosystem is a collection of software systems that have been developed to coexist and evolve together. The stakeholders of such a system need a variety of models to give them a perspective of the possibilities of the system, to evaluate specific quality attributes, and to extend the system. A powerful representation when building or using software ecosystems is the use of architectural models, which describe the structural aspects of such a system. These models have value for security and compliance, are useful to build new systems, can be used to define service contracts, find where quality factors can be monitored, and to plan further expansion. We have described a cloud ecosystem in the form of a pattern diagram where its components are patterns and reference architectures. A pattern is an encapsulated solution to a recurrent problem. We have recently expanded these models to cover fog systems and containers. Fog Computing is a highly-virtualized platform that provides compute, storage, and networking services between end devices and Cloud Computing Data Centers; a Software Container provides an execution environment for applications sharing a host operating system, binaries, and libraries with other containers. We intend to use this architecture to answer a variety of questions about the security of this system as well as a reference to design interacting combinations of heterogeneous components. We defined a metamodel to relate security concepts which is being expanded.

  12. Intelligent spatial ecosystem modeling using parallel processors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maxwell, T.; Costanza, R.

    1993-01-01

    Spatial modeling of ecosystems is essential if one's modeling goals include developing a relatively realistic description of past behavior and predictions of the impacts of alternative management policies on future ecosystem behavior. Development of these models has been limited in the past by the large amount of input data required and the difficulty of even large mainframe serial computers in dealing with large spatial arrays. These two limitations have begun to erode with the increasing availability of remote sensing data and GIS systems to manipulate it, and the development of parallel computer systems which allow computation of large, complex, spatial arrays. Although many forms of dynamic spatial modeling are highly amenable to parallel processing, the primary focus in this project is on process-based landscape models. These models simulate spatial structure by first compartmentalizing the landscape into some geometric design and then describing flows within compartments and spatial processes between compartments according to location-specific algorithms. The authors are currently building and running parallel spatial models at the regional scale for the Patuxent River region in Maryland, the Everglades in Florida, and Barataria Basin in Louisiana. The authors are also planning a project to construct a series of spatially explicit linked ecological and economic simulation models aimed at assessing the long-term potential impacts of global climate change

  13. Proving the ecosystem value through hydrological modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dorner, W; Spachinger, K; Metzka, R; Porter, M

    2008-01-01

    Ecosystems provide valuable functions. Also natural floodplains and river structures offer different types of ecosystem functions such as habitat function, recreational area and natural detention. From an economic stand point the loss (or rehabilitation) of these natural systems and their provided natural services can be valued as a damage (or benefit). Consequently these natural goods and services must be economically valued in project assessments e.g. cost-benefit-analysis or cost comparison. Especially in smaller catchments and river systems exists significant evidence that natural flood detention reduces flood risk and contributes to flood protection. Several research projects evaluated the mitigating effect of land use, river training and the loss of natural flood plains on development, peak and volume of floods. The presented project analysis the hypothesis that ignoring natural detention and hydrological ecosystem services could result in economically inefficient solutions for flood protection and mitigation. In test areas, subcatchments of the Danube in Germany, a combination of hydrological and hydrodynamic models with economic evaluation techniques was applied. Different forms of land use, river structure and flood protection measures were assed and compared from a hydrological and economic point of view. A hydrodynamic model was used to simulate flows to assess the extent of flood affected areas and damages to buildings and infrastructure as well as to investigate the impacts of levees and river structure on a local scale. These model results provided the basis for an economic assessment. Different economic valuation techniques, such as flood damage functions, cost comparison method and substation-approach were used to compare the outcomes of different hydrological scenarios from an economic point of view and value the ecosystem service. The results give significant evidence that natural detention must be evaluated as part of flood mitigation projects

  14. A hybrid analytical model for open-circuit field calculation of multilayer interior permanent magnet machines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Zhen; Xia, Changliang; Yan, Yan; Geng, Qiang; Shi, Tingna

    2017-08-01

    Due to the complicated rotor structure and nonlinear saturation of rotor bridges, it is difficult to build a fast and accurate analytical field calculation model for multilayer interior permanent magnet (IPM) machines. In this paper, a hybrid analytical model suitable for the open-circuit field calculation of multilayer IPM machines is proposed by coupling the magnetic equivalent circuit (MEC) method and the subdomain technique. In the proposed analytical model, the rotor magnetic field is calculated by the MEC method based on the Kirchhoff's law, while the field in the stator slot, slot opening and air-gap is calculated by subdomain technique based on the Maxwell's equation. To solve the whole field distribution of the multilayer IPM machines, the coupled boundary conditions on the rotor surface are deduced for the coupling of the rotor MEC and the analytical field distribution of the stator slot, slot opening and air-gap. The hybrid analytical model can be used to calculate the open-circuit air-gap field distribution, back electromotive force (EMF) and cogging torque of multilayer IPM machines. Compared with finite element analysis (FEA), it has the advantages of faster modeling, less computation source occupying and shorter time consuming, and meanwhile achieves the approximate accuracy. The analytical model is helpful and applicable for the open-circuit field calculation of multilayer IPM machines with any size and pole/slot number combination.

  15. Modeling hurricane effects on mangrove ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doyle, Thomas W.

    1997-01-01

    Mangrove ecosystems are at their most northern limit along the coastline of Florida and in isolated areas of the gulf coast in Louisiana and Texas. Mangroves are marine-based forests that have adapted to colonize and persist in salty intertidal waters. Three species of mangrove trees are common to the United States, black mangrove (Avicennia germinans), white mangrove (Laguncularia racemosa), and red mangrove (Rhizophora mangle). Mangroves are highly productive ecosystems and provide valuable habitat for fisheries and shorebirds. They are susceptible to lightning and hurricane disturbance, both of which occur frequently in south Florida. Climate change studies predict that, while these storms may not become more frequent, they may become more intense with warming sea temperatures. Sea-level rise alone has the potential for increasing the severity of storm surge, particularly in areas where coastal habitats and barrier shorelines are rapidly deteriorating. Given this possibility, U.S. Geological Survey researchers modeled the impact of hurricanes on south Florida mangrove communities.

  16. Biogeochemical modelling vs. tree-ring data - comparison of forest ecosystem productivity estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zorana Ostrogović Sever, Maša; Barcza, Zoltán; Hidy, Dóra; Paladinić, Elvis; Kern, Anikó; Marjanović, Hrvoje

    2017-04-01

    Forest ecosystems are sensitive to environmental changes as well as human-induce disturbances, therefore process-based models with integrated management modules represent valuable tool for estimating and forecasting forest ecosystem productivity under changing conditions. Biogeochemical model Biome-BGC simulates carbon, nitrogen and water fluxes, and it is widely used for different terrestrial ecosystems. It was modified and parameterised by many researchers in the past to meet the specific local conditions. In this research, we used recently published improved version of the model Biome-BGCMuSo (BBGCMuSo), with multilayer soil module and integrated management module. The aim of our research is to validate modelling results of forest ecosystem productivity (NPP) from BBGCMuSo model with observed productivity estimated from an extensive dataset of tree-rings. The research was conducted in two distinct forest complexes of managed Pedunculate oak in SE Europe (Croatia), namely Pokupsko basin and Spačva basin. First, we parameterized BBGCMuSo model at a local level using eddy-covariance (EC) data from Jastrebarsko EC site. Parameterized model was used for the assessment of productivity on a larger scale. Results of NPP assessment with BBGCMuSo are compared with NPP estimated from tree ring data taken from trees on over 100 plots in both forest complexes. Keywords: Biome-BGCMuSo, forest productivity, model parameterization, NPP, Pedunculate oak

  17. A multi-layer box model of carbon dynamics in soil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kuc, T.

    2005-01-01

    A multi-layer box model (MLB) for quantification of carbon fluxes between soil and atmosphere has been developed. In the model, soil carbon reservoir is represented by two boxes: fast decomposition box (FDB) and slow decomposition box (SDB), characterised by substantially different turnover time (TT) of carbon compounds. Each box has an internal structure (sub-compartments) accounting for carbon deposited in consecutive time intervals. The rate of decomposition of carbon compounds in each sub-compartment is proportional to the carbon content. With the aid of the MLB model and the 14 C signature of carbon dioxide, the fluxes entering and leaving the boxes, turnover time of carbon in each box, and the ratio of mass of carbon in the slow and fast box (M s /M f ) were calculated. The MBL model yields the turnover time of carbon in the FDB (TT f ) ca. 14 for typical investigated soils of temperate climate ecosystems. The calculated contribution of the CO 2 flux originating from the slow box (F s ) to the total CO 2 flux into the atmosphere ranges from 12% to 22%. These values are in agreement with experimental observations at different locations. Assuming that the input flux of carbon (F i n) to the soil system is doubled within the period of 100 years, the soil buffering capacity for excess carbon predicted by the MLB model for typical soil parameters may vary in the range between 26% and 52%. The highest values are obtained for soils characterised by long TTf, and well developed old carbon pool. (author)

  18. A novel multilayer model for missing link prediction and future link forecasting in dynamic complex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yasami, Yasser; Safaei, Farshad

    2018-02-01

    The traditional complex network theory is particularly focused on network models in which all network constituents are dealt with equivalently, while fail to consider the supplementary information related to the dynamic properties of the network interactions. This is a main constraint leading to incorrect descriptions of some real-world phenomena or incomplete capturing the details of certain real-life problems. To cope with the problem, this paper addresses the multilayer aspects of dynamic complex networks by analyzing the properties of intrinsically multilayered co-authorship networks, DBLP and Astro Physics, and presenting a novel multilayer model of dynamic complex networks. The model examines the layers evolution (layers birth/death process and lifetime) throughout the network evolution. Particularly, this paper models the evolution of each node's membership in different layers by an Infinite Factorial Hidden Markov Model considering feature cascade, and thereby formulates the link generation process for intra-layer and inter-layer links. Although adjacency matrixes are useful to describe the traditional single-layer networks, such a representation is not sufficient to describe and analyze the multilayer dynamic networks. This paper also extends a generalized mathematical infrastructure to address the problems issued by multilayer complex networks. The model inference is performed using some Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling strategies, given synthetic and real complex networks data. Experimental results indicate a tremendous improvement in the performance of the proposed multilayer model in terms of sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values, positive and negative likelihood ratios, F1-score, Matthews correlation coefficient, and accuracy for two important applications of missing link prediction and future link forecasting. The experimental results also indicate the strong predictivepower of the proposed model for the application of

  19. A hybrid analytical model for open-circuit field calculation of multilayer interior permanent magnet machines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, Zhen [School of Electrical Engineering and Automation, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072 (China); Xia, Changliang [School of Electrical Engineering and Automation, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072 (China); Tianjin Engineering Center of Electric Machine System Design and Control, Tianjin 300387 (China); Yan, Yan, E-mail: yanyan@tju.edu.cn [School of Electrical Engineering and Automation, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072 (China); Geng, Qiang [Tianjin Engineering Center of Electric Machine System Design and Control, Tianjin 300387 (China); Shi, Tingna [School of Electrical Engineering and Automation, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072 (China)

    2017-08-01

    Highlights: • A hybrid analytical model is developed for field calculation of multilayer IPM machines. • The rotor magnetic field is calculated by the magnetic equivalent circuit method. • The field in the stator and air-gap is calculated by subdomain technique. • The magnetic scalar potential on rotor surface is modeled as trapezoidal distribution. - Abstract: Due to the complicated rotor structure and nonlinear saturation of rotor bridges, it is difficult to build a fast and accurate analytical field calculation model for multilayer interior permanent magnet (IPM) machines. In this paper, a hybrid analytical model suitable for the open-circuit field calculation of multilayer IPM machines is proposed by coupling the magnetic equivalent circuit (MEC) method and the subdomain technique. In the proposed analytical model, the rotor magnetic field is calculated by the MEC method based on the Kirchhoff’s law, while the field in the stator slot, slot opening and air-gap is calculated by subdomain technique based on the Maxwell’s equation. To solve the whole field distribution of the multilayer IPM machines, the coupled boundary conditions on the rotor surface are deduced for the coupling of the rotor MEC and the analytical field distribution of the stator slot, slot opening and air-gap. The hybrid analytical model can be used to calculate the open-circuit air-gap field distribution, back electromotive force (EMF) and cogging torque of multilayer IPM machines. Compared with finite element analysis (FEA), it has the advantages of faster modeling, less computation source occupying and shorter time consuming, and meanwhile achieves the approximate accuracy. The analytical model is helpful and applicable for the open-circuit field calculation of multilayer IPM machines with any size and pole/slot number combination.

  20. Modelling migration in multilayer systems by a finite difference method: the spherical symmetry case

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hojbota, C I; Toşa, V; Mercea, P V

    2013-01-01

    We present a numerical model based on finite differences to solve the problem of chemical impurity migration within a multilayer spherical system. Migration here means diffusion of chemical species in conditions of concentration partitioning at layer interfaces due to different solubilities of the migrant in different layers. We detail here the numerical model and discuss the results of its implementation. To validate the method we compare it with cases where an analytic solution exists. We also present an application of our model to a practical problem in which we compute the migration of caprolactam from the packaging multilayer foil into the food

  1. Review on the Application of Ecosystem Models in Biodiversity ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper is an exposition with the sole aim of highlighting the relevance of ecosystem models in the analyses of biodiversity. The structure of ecosystem models enables researchers to design and consequently formulate monitoring programs that will be useful to the conservation of biodiversity. Ecosystem theoretical ...

  2. Empirical model development and validation with dynamic learning in the recurrent multilayer perception

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parlos, A.G.; Chong, K.T.; Atiya, A.F.

    1994-01-01

    A nonlinear multivariable empirical model is developed for a U-tube steam generator using the recurrent multilayer perceptron network as the underlying model structure. The recurrent multilayer perceptron is a dynamic neural network, very effective in the input-output modeling of complex process systems. A dynamic gradient descent learning algorithm is used to train the recurrent multilayer perceptron, resulting in an order of magnitude improvement in convergence speed over static learning algorithms. In developing the U-tube steam generator empirical model, the effects of actuator, process,and sensor noise on the training and testing sets are investigated. Learning and prediction both appear very effective, despite the presence of training and testing set noise, respectively. The recurrent multilayer perceptron appears to learn the deterministic part of a stochastic training set, and it predicts approximately a moving average response. Extensive model validation studies indicate that the empirical model can substantially generalize (extrapolate), though online learning becomes necessary for tracking transients significantly different than the ones included in the training set and slowly varying U-tube steam generator dynamics. In view of the satisfactory modeling accuracy and the associated short development time, neural networks based empirical models in some cases appear to provide a serious alternative to first principles models. Caution, however, must be exercised because extensive on-line validation of these models is still warranted

  3. Ecosystem element transport model for Lake Eckarfjaerden

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Konovalenko, L.; Bradshaw, C. [The Department of Ecology, Environment and Plant Sciences, Stockholm University (Sweden); Andersson, E.; Kautsky, U. [Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co. - SKB (Sweden)

    2014-07-01

    The ecosystem transport model of elements was developed for Lake Eckarfjaerden located in the Forsmark area in Sweden. Forsmark has currently a low level repository (SFR) and a repository for spent fuel is planned. A large number of data collected during site-investigation program 2002-2009 for planning the repository were available for the creation of the compartment model based on carbon circulation, physical and biological processes (e.g. primary production, consumption, respiration). The model is site-specific in the sense that the food web model is adapted to the actual food web at the site, and most estimates of biomass and metabolic rates for the organisms and meteorological data originate from site data. The functional organism groups of Lake Eckarfjaerden were considered as separate compartments: bacterio-plankton, benthic bacteria, macro-algae, phytoplankton, zooplankton, fish, benthic fauna. Two functional groups of bacteria were taken into account for the reason that they have the highest biomass of all functional groups during the winter, comprising 36% of the total biomass. Effects of ecological parameters, such as bacteria and algae biomass, on redistribution of a hypothetical radionuclide release in the lake were examined. The ecosystem model was used to estimate the environmental transfer of several elements (U, Th, Ra) and their isotopes (U-238, U-234,Th-232, Ra-226) to various aquatic organisms in the lake, using element-specific distribution coefficients for suspended particle and sediment. Results of chemical analyses of the water, sediment and biota were used for model validation. The model gives estimates of concentration factors for fish based on modelling rather on in situ measurement, which reduces the uncertainties for many radionuclides with scarce of data. Document available in abstract form only. (authors)

  4. Modeling of a collimator micro-multilayers in the Pinnacle planning system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garcia Hernandez, T.; Brualla Gonzalez, L.; Vicedo Gonzalez, A.; Rosello Ferrando, J.; Granero Cabanero, D.

    2013-01-01

    To model and validate, in the system of planning and calculation Pinnacle, a micro-multilayers collimator mounted on an accelerator Siemens Primus. The objective is to take advantage of the improvements offered by the algorithm of convolution of cone collapsed and the capacity of the system of modeling the rounded end of the blades. (Author)

  5. Multilayered Word Structure Model for Assessing Spelling of Finnish Children in Shallow Orthography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kulju, Pirjo; Mäkinen, Marita

    2017-01-01

    This study explores Finnish children's word-level spelling by applying a linguistically based multilayered word structure model for assessing spelling performance. The model contributes to the analytical qualitative assessment approach in order to identify children's spelling performance for enhancing writing skills. The children (N = 105)…

  6. Analyzing, Modelling, and Designing Software Ecosystems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Manikas, Konstantinos

    as the software development and distribution by a set of actors dependent on each other and the ecosystem. We commence on the hypothesis that the establishment of a software ecosystem on the telemedicine services of Denmark would address these issues and investigate how a software ecosystem can foster...... the development, implementation, and use of telemedicine services. We initially expand the theory of software ecosystems by contributing to the definition and understanding of software ecosystems, providing means of analyzing existing and designing new ecosystems, and defining and measuring the qualities...... of software ecosystems. We use these contributions to design a software ecosystem in the telemedicine services of Denmark with (i) a common platform that supports and promotes development from different actors, (ii) high software interaction, (iii) strong social network of actors, (iv) robust business...

  7. Identification of ecosystem parameters by SDE-modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stochastic differential equations (SDEs) for ecosystem modelling have attracted increasing attention during recent years. The modelling has mostly been through simulation experiments in order to analyse how system noise propagates through the ordinary differential equation formulation of ecosystem...... models. Estimation of parameters in SDEs is, however, possible by combining Kalman filter techniques and likelihood estimation. By modelling parameters as random walks it is possible to identify linear as well as non-linear interactions between ecosystem components. By formulating a simple linear SDE...

  8. Effect of feeders in 3D modeling of low impedance multilayer CPW transmission line

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaini, R. I.; Kyabaggu, P. B. K.; Sinulingga, E. P.

    2018-02-01

    Improved characteristics with low dissipation loss MMICs are highly desirable for wireless communications. However, the current industrial MMIC design is mainly based on microstrip concept which suffered from parasitic and unwanted phenomenon especially at higher frequency (>20 GHz). On the other hand, for future wireless technology, higher frequency operation is required and on-wafer microwave characterizations as well as precise modeling of 3D Multilayer CPW components are vital. This project concerns with understanding of the microwave characteristics behavior of Multilayer CPW components in MMIC applications. Feeder effect as unwanted parts in the characteristics has been investigated to determine its relation with the half wavelength resonance of the Multilayer CPW Low Impedance Transmission Line.

  9. Merging Marine Ecosystem Models and Genomics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coles, V.; Hood, R. R.; Stukel, M. R.; Moran, M. A.; Paul, J. H.; Satinsky, B.; Zielinski, B.; Yager, P. L.

    2015-12-01

    oceanography. One of the grand challenges of oceanography is to develop model techniques to more effectively incorporate genomic information. As one approach, we developed an ecosystem model whose community is determined by randomly assigning functional genes to build each organism's "DNA". Microbes are assigned a size that sets their baseline environmental responses using allometric response cuves. These responses are modified by the costs and benefits conferred by each gene in an organism's genome. The microbes are embedded in a general circulation model where environmental conditions shape the emergent population. This model is used to explore whether organisms constructed from randomized combinations of metabolic capability alone can self-organize to create realistic oceanic biogeochemical gradients. Realistic community size spectra and chlorophyll-a concentrations emerge in the model. The model is run repeatedly with randomly-generated microbial communities and each time realistic gradients in community size spectra, chlorophyll-a, and forms of nitrogen develop. This supports the hypothesis that the metabolic potential of a community rather than the realized species composition is the primary factor setting vertical and horizontal environmental gradients. Vertical distributions of nitrogen and transcripts for genes involved in nitrification are broadly consistent with observations. Modeled gene and transcript abundance for nitrogen cycling and processing of land-derived organic material match observations along the extreme gradients in the Amazon River plume, and they help to explain the factors controlling observed variability.

  10. Humus and humility in ecosystem model design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rowe, Ed

    2015-04-01

    Prediction is central to science. Empirical scientists couch their predictions as hypotheses and tend to deal with simple models such as regressions, but are modellers as much as are those who combine mechanistic hypotheses into more complex models. There are two main challenges for both groups: to strive for accurate predictions, and to ensure that the work is relevant to wider society. There is a role for blue-sky research, but the multiple environmental changes that characterise the 21st century place an onus on ecosystem scientists to develop tools for understanding environmental change and planning responses. Authors such as Funtowicz and Ravetz (1990) have argued that this situation represents "post-normal" science and that scientists should see themselves more humbly as actors within a societal process rather than as arbiters of truth. Modellers aim for generality, e.g. to accurately simulate the responses of a variety of ecosystems to several different environmental drivers. More accurate predictions can usually be achieved by including more explanatory factors or mechanisms in a model, even though this often results in a less efficient, less parsimonious model. This drives models towards ever-increasing complexity, and many models grow until they are effectively unusable beyond their development team. An alternative way forward is to focus on developing component models. Technologies for integrating dynamic models emphasise the removal of the model engine (algorithms) from code which handles time-stepping and the user interface. Developing components also requires some humility on the part of modellers, since collaboration will be needed to represent the whole system, and also because the idea that a simple component can or should represent the entire understanding of a scientific discipline is often difficult to accept. Policy-makers and land managers typically have questions different to those posed by scientists working within a specialism, and models

  11. Terrestrial ecosystem process model Biome-BGCMuSo v4.0: summary of improvements and new modeling possibilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hidy, Dóra; Barcza, Zoltán; Marjanović, Hrvoje; Zorana Ostrogović Sever, Maša; Dobor, Laura; Gelybó, Györgyi; Fodor, Nándor; Pintér, Krisztina; Churkina, Galina; Running, Steven; Thornton, Peter; Bellocchi, Gianni; Haszpra, László; Horváth, Ferenc; Suyker, Andrew; Nagy, Zoltán

    2016-12-01

    The process-based biogeochemical model Biome-BGC was enhanced to improve its ability to simulate carbon, nitrogen, and water cycles of various terrestrial ecosystems under contrasting management activities. Biome-BGC version 4.1.1 was used as a base model. Improvements included addition of new modules such as the multilayer soil module, implementation of processes related to soil moisture and nitrogen balance, soil-moisture-related plant senescence, and phenological development. Vegetation management modules with annually varying options were also implemented to simulate management practices of grasslands (mowing, grazing), croplands (ploughing, fertilizer application, planting, harvesting), and forests (thinning). New carbon and nitrogen pools have been defined to simulate yield and soft stem development of herbaceous ecosystems. The model version containing all developments is referred to as Biome-BGCMuSo (Biome-BGC with multilayer soil module; in this paper, Biome-BGCMuSo v4.0 is documented). Case studies on a managed forest, cropland, and grassland are presented to demonstrate the effect of model developments on the simulation of plant growth as well as on carbon and water balance.

  12. Modelling natural disturbances in forest ecosystems: a review

    OpenAIRE

    Seidl, Rupert; Fernandes, Paulo M.; Fonseca, Teresa F.; Gillet, François; Jönsson, Anna Maria; Merganičová, Katarína; Netherer, Sigrid; Arpaci, Alexander; Bontemps, Jean-Daniel; Bugmann, Harald

    2011-01-01

    Natural disturbances play a key role in ecosystem dynamics and are important factors for sustainable forest ecosystem management. Quantitative models are frequently employed to tackle the complexities associated with disturbance processes. Here we review the wide variety of approaches to modelling natural disturbances in forest ecosystems, addressing the full spectrum of disturbance modelling from single events to integrated disturbance regimes. We applied a general, process-based framework f...

  13. Upscaling key ecosystem functions across the conterminous United States by a water‐centric ecosystem model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ge Sun; Peter Caldwell; Asko Noormets; Steven G. McNulty; Erika Cohen; al. et.

    2011-01-01

    We developed a water‐centric monthly scale simulation model (WaSSI‐C) by integrating empirical water and carbon flux measurements from the FLUXNET network and an existing water supply and demand accounting model (WaSSI). The WaSSI‐C model was evaluated with basin‐scale evapotranspiration (ET), gross ecosystem productivity (GEP), and net ecosystem exchange (NEE)...

  14. Application of the recurrent multilayer perceptron in modeling complex process dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parlos, A G; Chong, K T; Atiya, A F

    1994-01-01

    A nonlinear dynamic model is developed for a process system, namely a heat exchanger, using the recurrent multilayer perceptron network as the underlying model structure. The perceptron is a dynamic neural network, which appears effective in the input-output modeling of complex process systems. Dynamic gradient descent learning is used to train the recurrent multilayer perceptron, resulting in an order of magnitude improvement in convergence speed over a static learning algorithm used to train the same network. In developing the empirical process model the effects of actuator, process, and sensor noise on the training and testing sets are investigated. Learning and prediction both appear very effective, despite the presence of training and testing set noise, respectively. The recurrent multilayer perceptron appears to learn the deterministic part of a stochastic training set, and it predicts approximately a moving average response of various testing sets. Extensive model validation studies with signals that are encountered in the operation of the process system modeled, that is steps and ramps, indicate that the empirical model can substantially generalize operational transients, including accurate prediction of instabilities not in the training set. However, the accuracy of the model beyond these operational transients has not been investigated. Furthermore, online learning is necessary during some transients and for tracking slowly varying process dynamics. Neural networks based empirical models in some cases appear to provide a serious alternative to first principles models.

  15. A community-based framework for aquatic ecosystem models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Trolle, Didde; Hamilton, D. P.; Hipsey, M. R.

    2012-01-01

    Here, we communicate a point of departure in the development of aquatic ecosystem models, namely a new community-based framework, which supports an enhanced and transparent union between the collective expertise that exists in the communities of traditional ecologists and model developers. Through...... a literature survey, we document the growing importance of numerical aquatic ecosystem models while also noting the difficulties, up until now, of the aquatic scientific community to make significant advances in these models during the past two decades. Through a common forum for aquatic ecosystem modellers we...... aim to (i) advance collaboration within the aquatic ecosystem modelling community, (ii) enable increased use of models for research, policy and ecosystem-based management, (iii) facilitate a collective framework using common (standardised) code to ensure that model development is incremental, (iv...

  16. Studying behavior of multilayer materials: A 1-D model correlated to magnetic domain walls through complex permeability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahmadi, B.; Chazal, H.; Waeckerle, T.; Roudet, J.

    2008-01-01

    Multilayer cores are suitable for integrated planar magnetic components. We proposed here to investigate the frequency behavior of multilayer nanocrystalline cores in the frame of a one-dimensional (1-D) electromagnetic propagation model. Electromagnetic wave equations are considered to explain the phenomena from the macroscopic point of view. A domain wall description is considered to take into account non-homogeneity of magnetic media. This mesoscopic model is correlated to macroscopic model through complex permeability. The scope of validity of the model is determined by means of indirect permeability measurement. Finally, the behavior of the multilayer core is predicted by using an equivalent electrical circuit and will interest component designers

  17. REMM: The Riparian Ecosystem Management Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lowrance, R.; Altier, L.S.; Williams, R.G.; Inamdar, S.P.; Sheridan, J.M.; Bosch, D.D.; Hubbard, R.K.; Thomas, D.L.

    2000-03-01

    Riparian buffer zones are effective in mitigating nonpoint source pollution and have been recommended as a best management practice (BMP). The Riparian Ecosystem Management Model (REMM) has been developed for researchers and natural resource agencies as a modeling tool that can help quantify the water quality benefits of riparian buffers under varying site conditions. Processes simulated in REMM include surface and subsurface hydrology; sediment transport and deposition; carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus transport, removal, and cycling; and vegetation growth. Management options, such as vegetation type, size of the buffer zone, and biomass harvesting also can be simulated. REMM can be used in conjunction with upland models, empirical data, or estimated loadings to examine scenarios of buffer zone design for a hillslope. Evaluation of REMM simulations with field observations shows generally good agreement between simulated and observed data for groundwater nitrate concentrations and water table depths in a mature riparian forest buffer. Sensitivity analysis showed that changes that influenced the water balance or soil moisture storage affected the streamflow output. Parameter changes that influence either hydrology or rates of nutrient cycling affected total N transport and plant N uptake.

  18. A Generic Model for the Resuspension of Multilayer Aerosol Deposits by Turbulent Flow

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Friess, H.; Yadigaroglu, G.

    2001-01-01

    An idealized lattice structure is considered of multilayer aerosol deposits, where every particle at the deposit surface is associated with a resuspension rate constant depending on a statistically distributed particle parameter and on flow conditions. The response of this generic model is represented by a set of integrodifferential equations. As a first application of the general formalism, the behavior of Fromentin's multilayer model is analyzed, and the model parameters are adapted to experimental data. In addition, improved relations between model parameters and physical input parameters are proposed. As a second application, a method is proposed for building multilayer models by using resuspension rate constants of existing monolayer models. The method is illustrated by a sample of monolayer data resulting from the model of Reeks, Reed, and Hall. Also discussed is the error to be expected if a monolayer resuspension model, which works well for thin aerosol deposits, is applied to thick deposits under the classical monolayer assumption that all deposited particles interact with the fluid at all times

  19. Ecosystem Demography Model: Scaling Vegetation Dynamics Across South America

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This model product contains the source code for the Ecosystem Demography Model (ED version 1.0) as well as model input and output data for a portion of South America...

  20. Ecosystem Demography Model: Scaling Vegetation Dynamics Across South America

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — ABSTRACT: This model product contains the source code for the Ecosystem Demography Model (ED version 1.0) as well as model input and output data for a portion of...

  1. Validation of Infinite Impulse Response Multilayer Perceptron for Modelling Nuclear Dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Cadini

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Artificial neural networks are powerful algorithms for constructing nonlinear empirical models from operational data. Their use is becoming increasingly popular in the complex modeling tasks required by diagnostic, safety, and control applications in complex technologies such as those employed in the nuclear industry. In this paper, the nonlinear modeling capabilities of an infinite impulse response multilayer perceptron (IIR-MLP for nuclear dynamics are considered in comparison to static modeling by a finite impulse response multilayer perceptron (FIR-MLP and a conventional static MLP. The comparison is made with respect to the nonlinear dynamics of a nuclear reactor as investigated by IIR-MLP in a previous paper. The superior performance of the locally recurrent scheme is demonstrated.

  2. Exploring, exploiting and evolving diversity of aquatic ecosystem models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Janssen, Annette B G; Arhonditsis, George B.; Beusen, Arthur

    2015-01-01

    Here, we present a community perspective on how to explore, exploit and evolve the diversity in aquatic ecosystem models. These models play an important role in understanding the functioning of aquatic ecosystems, filling in observation gaps and developing effective strategies for water quality...... management. In this spirit, numerous models have been developed since the 1970s. We set off to explore model diversity by making an inventory among 42 aquatic ecosystem modellers, by categorizing the resulting set of models and by analysing them for diversity. We then focus on how to exploit model diversity...... available through open-source policies, to standardize documentation and technical implementation of models, and to compare models through ensemble modelling and interdisciplinary approaches. We end with our perspective on how the field of aquatic ecosystem modelling might develop in the next 5–10 years...

  3. Modelling natural disturbances in forest ecosystems: a review

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Seidl, R.; Fernandes, P.M.; Fonseca, T.F.; Gillet, F.; Jöhnsson, A.M.; Merganičová, K.; Netherer, S.; Arpaci, A.; Bontemps, J.D.; Bugmann, H.; González-Olabarria, J.R.; Lasch, P.; Meredieu, C.; Moreira, F.; Schelhaas, M.; Mohren, G.M.J.

    2011-01-01

    Natural disturbances play a key role in ecosystem dynamics and are important factors for sustainable forest ecosystem management. Quantitative models are frequently employed to tackle the complexities associated with disturbance processes. Here we review the wide variety of approaches to modelling

  4. Model experiment and numerical simulation of drop impact response of multilayer-combinational container

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xie Ruoze; Zhong Weizhou; Wan Qiang; Huang Xicheng; Zhang Fangju

    2015-01-01

    The drop impact process of multilayer-combinational container was simulated experimentally using a gas gun, and the normal impact and oblique impact of scaled models were tested. The experiments of scaled models were simulated numerically, and the stress distribution and plastic deformation in the tested structures during collision process were obtained. The results were compared with the experiment data. It was shown that the impact work mainly converted into plastic work due to the plastic deformation of the cushion wood and the plastic hinge in the buckled steel shell. The plastic deformation mainly happened at the collided end of the scaled models, and there was no plastic deformation found far from the collided end. The compressive stress-strain curve of the wood in texture direction can be used to simulate numerically the drop impact process of multilayer-combinational container. (authors)

  5. A General Reliability Model for Ni-BaTiO3-Based Multilayer Ceramic Capacitors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Donhang

    2014-01-01

    The evaluation of multilayer ceramic capacitors (MLCCs) with Ni electrode and BaTiO3 dielectric material for potential space project applications requires an in-depth understanding of their reliability. A general reliability model for Ni-BaTiO3 MLCC is developed and discussed. The model consists of three parts: a statistical distribution; an acceleration function that describes how a capacitor's reliability life responds to the external stresses, and an empirical function that defines contribution of the structural and constructional characteristics of a multilayer capacitor device, such as the number of dielectric layers N, dielectric thickness d, average grain size, and capacitor chip size A. Application examples are also discussed based on the proposed reliability model for Ni-BaTiO3 MLCCs.

  6. Ecosystem management via interacting models of political and ecological processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haas, T. C.

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available The decision to implement environmental protection options is a political one. Political realities may cause a country to not heed the most persuasive scientific analysis of an ecosystem's future health. A predictive understanding of the political processes that result in ecosystem management decisions may help guide ecosystem management policymaking. To this end, this article develops a stochastic, temporal model of how political processes influence and are influenced by ecosystem processes. This model is realized in a system of interacting influence diagrams that model the decision making of a country's political bodies. These decisions interact with a model of the ecosystem enclosed by the country. As an example, a model for Cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus management in Kenya is constructed and fitted to decision and ecological data.

  7. Producer-decomposer matching in a simple model ecosystem: A network coevolutionary approach to ecosystem organization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Higashi, Masahiko; Yamamura, Norio; Nakajima, Hisao; Abe, Takuya

    1993-01-01

    The present not is concerned with how the ecosystem maintains its energy and matter processes, and how those processes change throughout ecological and geological time, or how the constituent biota of an ecosystem maintain their life, and how ecological (species) succession and biological evolution proceed within an ecosystem. To advance further Tansky's (1976) approach to ecosystem organization, which investigated the characteristic properties of the developmental process of a model ecosystem, by applying Margalef's (1968) maximum maturity principle to derive its long term change, we seek a course for deriving the macroscopic trends along the organization process of an ecosystem as a consequence of the interactions among its biotic components and their modification of ecological traits. Using a simple ecosystem model consisting of four aggregated components (open-quotes compartmentsclose quotes) connected by nutrient flows, we investigate how a change in the value of a parameter alters the network pattern of flows and stocks, even causing a change in the value of another parameter, which in turn brings about further change in the network pattern and values of some (possible original) parameters. The continuation of this chain reaction involving feedbacks constitutes a possible mechanism for the open-quotes coevolutionclose quotes or open-quotes matchingclose quotes among flows, stocks, and parameters

  8. Modeling dynamics of biological and chemical components of aquatic ecosystems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lassiter, R.R.

    1975-05-01

    To provide capability to model aquatic ecosystems or their subsystems as needed for particular research goals, a modeling strategy was developed. Submodels of several processes common to aquatic ecosystems were developed or adapted from previously existing ones. Included are submodels for photosynthesis as a function of light and depth, biological growth rates as a function of temperature, dynamic chemical equilibrium, feeding and growth, and various types of losses to biological populations. These submodels may be used as modules in the construction of models of subsystems or ecosystems. A preliminary model for the nitrogen cycle subsystem was developed using the modeling strategy and applicable submodels. (U.S.)

  9. Marine ecosystem modeling beyond the box: using GIS to study carbon fluxes in a coastal ecosystem.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wijnbladh, Erik; Jönsson, Bror Fredrik; Kumblad, Linda

    2006-12-01

    Studies of carbon fluxes in marine ecosystems are often done by using box model approaches with basin size boxes, or highly resolved 3D models, and an emphasis on the pelagic component of the ecosystem. Those approaches work well in the ocean proper, but can give rise to considerable problems when applied to coastal systems, because of the scale of certain ecological niches and the fact that benthic organisms are the dominant functional group of the ecosystem. In addition, 3D models require an extensive modeling effort. In this project, an intermediate approach based on a high resolution (20x20 m) GIS data-grid has been developed for the coastal ecosystem in the Laxemar area (Baltic Sea, Sweden) based on a number of different site investigations. The model has been developed in the context of a safety assessment project for a proposed nuclear waste repository, in which the fate of hypothetically released radionuclides from the planned repository is estimated. The assessment project requires not only a good understanding of the ecosystem dynamics at the site, but also quantification of stocks and flows of matter in the system. The data-grid was then used to set up a carbon budget describing the spatial distribution of biomass, primary production, net ecosystem production and thus where carbon sinks and sources are located in the area. From these results, it was clear that there was a large variation in ecosystem characteristics within the basins and, on a larger scale, that the inner areas are net producing and the outer areas net respiring, even in shallow phytobenthic communities. Benthic processes had a similar or larger influence on carbon fluxes as advective processes in inner areas, whereas the opposite appears to be true in the outer basins. As many radionuclides are expected to follow the pathways of organic matter in the environment, these findings enhance our abilities to realistically describe and predict their fate in the ecosystem.

  10. Marine Ecosystem Modeling Beyond the Box: Using GIS to Study Carbon Fluxes in a Coastal Ecosystem

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wijnbladh, Erik; Joensson, Bror Fredrik; Kumblad, Linda

    2006-01-01

    Studies of carbon fluxes in marine ecosystems are often done by using box model approaches with basin size boxes, or highly resolved 3D models, and an emphasis on the pelagic component of the ecosystem. Those approaches work well in the ocean proper, but can give rise to considerable problems when applied to coastal systems, because of the scale of certain ecological niches and the fact that benthic organisms are the dominant functional group of the ecosystem. In addition, 3D models require an extensive modeling effort. In this project, an intermediate approach based on a high resolution (20x20 m) GIS data-grid has been developed for the coastal ecosystem in the Laxemar area (Baltic Sea, Sweden) based on a number of different site investigations. The model has been developed in the context of a safety assessment project for a proposed nuclear waste repository, in which the fate of hypothetically released radionuclides from the planned repository is estimated. The assessment project requires not only a good understanding of the ecosystem dynamics at the site, but also quantification of stocks and flows of matter in the system. The data-grid was then used to set up a carbon budget describing the spatial distribution of biomass, primary production, net ecosystem production and thus where carbon sinks and sources are located in the area. From these results, it was clear that there was a large variation in ecosystem characteristics within the basins and, on a larger scale, that the inner areas are net producing and the outer areas net respiring, even in shallow phyto benthic communities. Benthic processes had a similar or larger influence on carbon fluxes as advective processes in inner areas, whereas the opposite appears to be true in the outer basins. As many radionuclides are expected to follow the pathways of organic matter in the environment, these findings enhance our abilities to realistically describe and predict their fate in the ecosystem

  11. Modeling and sensitivity analysis of mass transfer in active multilayer polymeric film for food applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bedane, T.; Di Maio, L.; Scarfato, P.; Incarnato, L.; Marra, F.

    2015-12-01

    The barrier performance of multilayer polymeric films for food applications has been significantly improved by incorporating oxygen scavenging materials. The scavenging activity depends on parameters such as diffusion coefficient, solubility, concentration of scavenger loaded and the number of available reactive sites. These parameters influence the barrier performance of the film in different ways. Virtualization of the process is useful to characterize, design and optimize the barrier performance based on physical configuration of the films. Also, the knowledge of values of parameters is important to predict the performances. Inverse modeling and sensitivity analysis are sole way to find reasonable values of poorly defined, unmeasured parameters and to analyze the most influencing parameters. Thus, the objective of this work was to develop a model to predict barrier properties of multilayer film incorporated with reactive layers and to analyze and characterize their performances. Polymeric film based on three layers of Polyethylene terephthalate (PET), with a core reactive layer, at different thickness configurations was considered in the model. A one dimensional diffusion equation with reaction was solved numerically to predict the concentration of oxygen diffused into the polymer taking into account the reactive ability of the core layer. The model was solved using commercial software for different film layer configurations and sensitivity analysis based on inverse modeling was carried out to understand the effect of physical parameters. The results have shown that the use of sensitivity analysis can provide physical understanding of the parameters which highly affect the gas permeation into the film. Solubility and the number of available reactive sites were the factors mainly influencing the barrier performance of three layered polymeric film. Multilayer films slightly modified the steady transport properties in comparison to net PET, giving a small reduction

  12. First-principles calculations for the elastic properties of Ni-base model superalloys: Ni/Ni3Al multilayers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yun-Jiang, Wang; Chong-Yu, Wang

    2009-01-01

    A model system consisting of Ni[001](100)/Ni 3 Al[001](100) multi-layers are studied using the density functional theory in order to explore the elastic properties of single crystal Ni-based superalloys. Simulation results are consistent with the experimental observation that rafted Ni-base superalloys virtually possess a cubic symmetry. The convergence of the elastic properties with respect to the thickness of the multilayers are tested by a series of multilayers from 2γ'+2γ to 10γ'+10γ atomic layers. The elastic properties are found to vary little with the increase of the multilayer's thickness. A Ni/Ni 3 Al multilayer with 10γ'+10γ atomic layers (3.54 nm) can be used to simulate the mechanical properties of Ni-base model superalloys. Our calculated elastic constants, bulk modulus, orientation-dependent shear modulus and Young's modulus, as well as the Zener anisotropy factor are all compatible with the measured results of Ni-base model superalloys R1 and the advanced commercial superalloys TMS-26, CMSX-4 at a low temperature. The mechanical properties as a function of the γ' phase volume fraction are calculated by varying the proportion of the γ and γ' phase in the multilayers. Besides, the mechanical properties of two-phase Ni/Ni 3 Al multilayer can be well predicted by the Voigt–Reuss–Hill rule of mixtures. (classical areas of phenomenology)

  13. Numerical analysis of the chimera states in the multilayered network model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goremyko, Mikhail V.; Maksimenko, Vladimir A.; Makarov, Vladimir V.; Ghosh, Dibakar; Bera, Bidesh K.; Dana, Syamal K.; Hramov, Alexander E.

    2017-03-01

    We numerically study the interaction between the ensembles of the Hindmarsh-Rose (HR) neuron systems, arranged in the multilayer network model. We have shown that the fully identical layers, demonstrated individually different chimera due to the initial mismatch, come to the identical chimera state with the increase of inter-layer coupling. Within the multilayer model we also consider the case, when the one layer demonstrates chimera state, while another layer exhibits coherent or incoherent dynamics. It has been shown that the interactions chimera-coherent state and chimera-incoherent state leads to the both excitation of chimera as from the ensemble of fully coherent or incoherent oscillators, and suppression of initially stable chimera state

  14. Implementation of a 3d numerical model of a folded multilayer carbonate aquifer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Salvo, Cristina; Guyennon, Nicolas; Romano, Emanuele; Bruna Petrangeli, Anna; Preziosi, Elisabetta

    2016-04-01

    The main objective of this research is to present a case study of the numerical model implementation of a complex carbonate, structurally folded aquifer, with a finite difference, porous equivalent model. The case study aquifer (which extends over 235 km2 in the Apennine chain, Central Italy) provides a long term average of 3.5 m3/s of good quality groundwater to the surface river network, sustaining the minimum vital flow, and it is planned to be exploited in the next years for public water supply. In the downstream part of the river in the study area, a "Site of Community Importance" include the Nera River for its valuable aquatic fauna. However, the possible negative effects of the foreseen exploitation on groundwater dependent ecosystems are a great concern and model grounded scenarios are needed. This multilayer aquifer was conceptualized as five hydrostratigraphic units: three main aquifers (the uppermost unconfined, the central and the deepest partly confined), are separated by two locally discontinuous aquitards. The Nera river cuts through the two upper aquifers and acts as the main natural sink for groundwater. An equivalent porous medium approach was chosen. The complex tectonic structure of the aquifer requires several steps in defining the conceptual model; the presence of strongly dipping layers with very heterogeneous hydraulic conductivity, results in different thicknesses of saturated portions. Aquifers can have both unconfined or confined zones; drying and rewetting must be allowed when considering recharge/discharge cycles. All these characteristics can be included in the conceptual and numerical model; however, being the number of flow and head target scarce, the over-parametrization of the model must be avoided. Following the principle of parsimony, three steady state numerical models were developed, starting from a simple model, and then adding complexity: 2D (single layer), QUASI -3D (with leackage term simulating flow through aquitards) and

  15. Numerical simulation of multi-layer graphene structures based on quantum-chemical model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kasper, Y; Tuchin, A; Bokova, A; Bityutskaya, L

    2016-01-01

    The electronic structure of the multi-layer graphene has been studied using the density functional theory (DFT). The dependence of the average interlayer distance on the number of layers ( n = 2 ÷ 6) has been determined. The analysis of the charge redistribution and the electron density of the bi- and three-layer graphene under the external pressure up to 50 GPa has been performed. The model of the interlayer conductivity of compressed multigraphene was offered (paper)

  16. On a perturbed Sparre Andersen risk model with multi-layer dividend strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Hu; Zhang, Zhimin

    2009-10-01

    In this paper, we consider a perturbed Sparre Andersen risk model, in which the inter-claim times are generalized Erlang(n) distributed. Under the multi-layer dividend strategy, piece-wise integro-differential equations for the discounted penalty functions are derived, and a recursive approach is applied to express the solutions. A numerical example to calculate the ruin probabilities is given to illustrate the solution procedure.

  17. A model ecosystem experiment and its computational simulation studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Doi, M.

    2002-01-01

    Simplified microbial model ecosystem and its computer simulation model are introduced as eco-toxicity test for the assessment of environmental responses from the effects of environmental impacts. To take the effects on the interactions between species and environment into account, one option is to select the keystone species on the basis of ecological knowledge, and to put it in the single-species toxicity test. Another option proposed is to put the eco-toxicity tests as experimental micro ecosystem study and a theoretical model ecosystem analysis. With these tests, the stressors which are more harmful to the ecosystems should be replace with less harmful ones on the basis of unified measures. Management of radioactive materials, chemicals, hyper-eutrophic, and other artificial disturbances of ecosystem should be discussed consistently from the unified view point of environmental protection. (N.C.)

  18. A general predictive model for estimating monthly ecosystem evapotranspiration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ge Sun; Karrin Alstad; Jiquan Chen; Shiping Chen; Chelcy R. Ford; al. et.

    2011-01-01

    Accurately quantifying evapotranspiration (ET) is essential for modelling regional-scale ecosystem water balances. This study assembled an ET data set estimated from eddy flux and sapflow measurements for 13 ecosystems across a large climatic and management gradient from the United States, China, and Australia. Our objectives were to determine the relationships among...

  19. An ecosystem model for tropical forest disturbance and selective logging

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maoyi Huang; Gregory P. Asner; Michael Keller; Joseph A. Berry

    2008-01-01

    [1] A new three-dimensional version of the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach (CASA) ecosystem model (CASA-3D) was developed to simulate regional carbon cycling in tropical forest ecosystems after disturbances such as logging. CASA-3D has the following new features: (1) an alternative approach for calculating absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (APAR) using new...

  20. A blueprint for mapping and modelling ecosystem services

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Crossman, N.; Burkhard, B.; Nedkov, S.; Willemen, L.L.J.; Petz, K.; Palomo, I.; Drakou, E.G.; Martín-Lopez, B.; McPhearson, T.; Boyanova, K.; Alkemade, R.; Egoh, B.; Dunbar, M.D.; Maes, J.

    2013-01-01

    The inconsistency in methods to quantify and map ecosystem services challenges the development of robust values of ecosystem services in national accounts and broader policy and natural resource management decision-making. In this paper we develop and test a blueprint to give guidance on modelling

  1. Mapping and modelling ecosystem services for science, policy and practice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Burkhard, B.; Crossman, N.; Nedkov, S.; Petz, K.; Alkemade, R.

    2013-01-01

    Ecosystem services are a significant research and policy topic and there are many modelling and mapping approaches aimed at understanding the stocks, demands and flows of ecosystem services on different spatial and temporal scales. The integration of geo-biophysical processes and structure

  2. Multi-layer composite mechanical modeling for the inhomogeneous biofilm mechanical behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xiaoling; Han, Jingshi; Li, Kui; Wang, Guoqing; Hao, Mudong

    2016-08-01

    Experiments showed that bacterial biofilms are heterogeneous, for example, the density, the diffusion coefficient, and mechanical properties of the biofilm are different along the biofilm thickness. In this paper, we establish a multi-layer composite model to describe the biofilm mechanical inhomogeneity based on unified multiple-component cellular automaton (UMCCA) model. By using our model, we develop finite element simulation procedure for biofilm tension experiment. The failure limit and biofilm extension displacement obtained from our model agree well with experimental measurements. This method provides an alternative theory to study the mechanical inhomogeneity in biological materials.

  3. Land-use planning for nearshore ecosystem services—the Puget Sound Ecosystem Portfolio Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byrd, Kristin

    2011-01-01

    The 2,500 miles of shoreline and nearshore areas of Puget Sound, Washington, provide multiple benefits to people—"ecosystem services"—including important fishing, shellfishing, and recreation industries. To help resource managers plan for expected growth in coming decades, the U.S. Geological Survey Western Geographic Science Center has developed the Puget Sound Ecosystem Portfolio Model (PSEPM). Scenarios of urban growth and shoreline modifications serve as model inputs to develop alternative futures of important nearshore features such as water quality and beach habitats. Model results will support regional long-term planning decisions for the Puget Sound region.

  4. Assumptions behind size-based ecosystem models are realistic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Ken Haste; Blanchard, Julia L.; Fulton, Elizabeth A.

    2016-01-01

    A recent publication about balanced harvesting (Froese et al., ICES Journal of Marine Science; doi:10.1093/icesjms/fsv122) contains several erroneous statements about size-spectrum models. We refute the statements by showing that the assumptions pertaining to size-spectrum models discussed by Fro...... that there is indeed a constructive role for a wide suite of ecosystem models to evaluate fishing strategies in an ecosystem context...

  5. Modelling of the Peltier effect in magnetic multilayers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Juarez-Acosta, I.; Olivares-Robles, M.A.; Bosu, S.; Sakuraba, Y.; Kubota, T.; Takahashi, S.; Takanashi, K.; Bauer, G.E.W.

    2016-01-01

    We model the charge, spin, and heat currents in ferromagnetic metal?normal metal?normal metal trilayer structures in the two current model, taking into account bulk and interface thermoelectric properties as well as Joule heating. The results include the temperature distribution as well as

  6. Improved lumped models for transient combined convective and radiative cooling of multi-layer composite slabs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    An Chen; Su Jian

    2011-01-01

    Improved lumped parameter models were developed for the transient heat conduction in multi-layer composite slabs subjected to combined convective and radiative cooling. The improved lumped models were obtained through two-point Hermite approximations for integrals. Transient combined convective and radiative cooling of three-layer composite slabs was analyzed to illustrate the applicability of the proposed lumped models, with respect to different values of the Biot numbers, the radiation-conduction parameter, the dimensionless thermal contact resistances, the dimensionless thickness, and the dimensionless thermal conductivity. It was shown by comparison with numerical solution of the original distributed parameter model that the higher order lumped model (H 1,1 /H 0,0 approximation) yielded significant improvement of average temperature prediction over the classical lumped model. In addition, the higher order (H 1,1 /H 0,0 ) model was applied to analyze the transient heat conduction problem of steel-concrete-steel sandwich plates. - Highlights: → Improved lumped models for convective-radiative cooling of multi-layer slabs were developed. → Two-point Hermite approximations for integrals were employed. → Significant improvement over classical lumped model was achieved. → The model can be applied to high Biot number and high radiation-conduction parameter. → Transient heat conduction in steel-concrete-steel sandwich pipes was analyzed as an example.

  7. Computational Modeling of Bloch Surface Waves in One-Dimensional Periodic and Aperiodic Multilayer Structures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koju, Vijay

    Photonic crystals and their use in exciting Bloch surface waves have received immense attention over the past few decades. This interest is mainly due to their applications in bio-sensing, wave-guiding, and other optical phenomena such as surface field enhanced Raman spectroscopy. Improvement in numerical modeling techniques, state of the art computing resources, and advances in fabrication techniques have also assisted in growing interest in this field. The ability to model photonic crystals computationally has benefited both the theoretical as well as experimental communities. It helps the theoretical physicists in solving complex problems which cannot be solved analytically and helps to acquire useful insights that cannot be obtained otherwise. Experimentalists, on the other hand, can test different variants of their devices by changing device parameters to optimize performance before fabrication. In this dissertation, we develop two commonly used numerical techniques, namely transfer matrix method, and rigorous coupled wave analysis, in C++ and MATLAB, and use two additional software packages, one open-source and another commercial, to model one-dimensional photonic crystals. Different variants of one-dimensional multilayered structures such as perfectly periodic dielectric multilayers, quasicrystals, aperiodic multilayer are modeled, along with one-dimensional photonic crystals with gratings on the top layer. Applications of Bloch surface waves, along with new and novel aperiodic dielectric multilayer structures that support Bloch surface waves are explored in this dissertation. We demonstrate a slow light configuration that makes use of Bloch Surface Waves as an intermediate excitation in a double-prism tunneling configuration. This method is simple compared to the more usual techniques for slowing light using the phenomenon of electromagnetically induced transparency in atomic gases or doped ionic crystals operated at temperatures below 4K. Using a semi

  8. Estimating net ecosystem exchange of carbon using the normalized difference vegetation index and an ecosystem model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Veroustraete, F.; Patyn, J.; Myneni, R.B.

    1996-01-01

    The evaluation and prediction of changes in carbon dynamics at the ecosystem level is a key issue in studies of global change. An operational concept for the determination of carbon fluxes for the Belgian territory is the goal of the presented study. The approach is based on the integration of remotely sensed data into ecosystem models in order to evaluate photosynthetic assimilation and net ecosystem exchange (NEE). Remote sensing can be developed as an operational tool to determine the fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (feAR). A review of the methodological approach of mapping fPAR dynamics at the regional scale by means of NOAA11-A VHRR / 2 data for the year 1990 is given. The processing sequence from raw radiance values to fPAR is presented. An interesting aspect of incorporating remote sensing derived fPAR in ecosystem models is the potential for modeling actual as opposed to potential vegetation. Further work should prove whether the concepts presented and the assumptions made in this study are valid. (NEE). Complex ecosystem models with a highly predictive value for a specific ecosystem are generally not suitable for global or regional applications, since they require a substantial set of ancillary data becoming increasingly larger with increasing complexity of the model. The ideal model for our purpose is one that is simple enough to be used in global scale modeling, and which can be adapted for different ecosystems or vegetation types. The fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (fPAR) during the growing season determines in part net photosynthesis and phytomass production (Ruimy, 1995). Remotely measured red and near-infrared spectral reflectances can be used to estimate fPAR. Therefore, a possible approach is to estimate net photosynthesis, phytomass, and NEE from a combination of satellite data and an ecosystem model that includes carbon dynamics. It has to be stated that some parts of the work presented in this

  9. Sintering of Multilayered Porous Structures: Part I-Constitutive Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olevsky, Eugene; Tadesse Molla, Tesfaye; Frandsen, Henrik Lund

    2013-01-01

    Theoretical analyses of shrinkage and distortion kinetics during sintering of bilayered porous structures are carried out. The developed modeling framework is based on the continuum theory of sintering; it enables the direct assessment of the cofiring process outcomes and of the impact of process...

  10. Multilayer piezoelectric transducer models combined with Field II

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bæk, David; Willatzen, Morten; Jensen, Jørgen Arendt

    2012-01-01

    One-dimensional and three-dimensional axisymmetric transducer model have been compared to determine their feasibility to predict the volt-to-surface impulse response of a circular Pz27 piezoceramic disc. The ceramic is assumed mounted with silver electrodes, bounded at the outer circular boundary...

  11. Model of plutonium dynamics in a deciduous forest ecosystem

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garten, C.T. Jr.; Gardner, R.H.; Dahlman, R.C.

    1980-01-01

    A linear compartment model with donor-controlled flows between compartments was designed to describe and simulate the behavior of plutonium ( 239 240 Pu) in a contaminated forest ecosystem at Oak Ridge, TN. At steady states predicted by the model, less than 0.25% of the plutonium in the ecosystem resides in biota. Soil is the major repository of plutonium in the forest, and exchanges of plutonium between soil and litter or soil and tree roots were dominant transfers affecting the ecosystem distribution of plutonium. Variation in predicted steady-state amounts of plutonium in the forest, given variability in the model parameters, indicates that our ability to develop models of plutonium transport in ecosystems should improve with greater precision in data from natural environments and a better understanding of sources of variation in plutonium data

  12. Pyrolysis Model Development for a Multilayer Floor Covering

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark B. McKinnon

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Comprehensive pyrolysis models that are integral to computational fire codes have improved significantly over the past decade as the demand for improved predictive capabilities has increased. High fidelity pyrolysis models may improve the design of engineered materials for better fire response, the design of the built environment, and may be used in forensic investigations of fire events. A major limitation to widespread use of comprehensive pyrolysis models is the large number of parameters required to fully define a material and the lack of effective methodologies for measurement of these parameters, especially for complex materials. The work presented here details a methodology used to characterize the pyrolysis of a low-pile carpet tile, an engineered composite material that is common in commercial and institutional occupancies. The studied material includes three distinct layers of varying composition and physical structure. The methodology utilized a comprehensive pyrolysis model (ThermaKin to conduct inverse analyses on data collected through several experimental techniques. Each layer of the composite was individually parameterized to identify its contribution to the overall response of the composite. The set of properties measured to define the carpet composite were validated against mass loss rate curves collected at conditions outside the range of calibration conditions to demonstrate the predictive capabilities of the model. The mean error between the predicted curve and the mean experimental mass loss rate curve was calculated as approximately 20% on average for heat fluxes ranging from 30 to 70 kW·m−2, which is within the mean experimental uncertainty.

  13. Ecological and Social Dynamics in Simple Models of Ecosystem Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephen R. Carpenter

    1999-12-01

    Full Text Available Simulation models were developed to explore and illustrate dynamics of socioecological systems. The ecosystem is a lake subject to phosphorus pollution. Phosphorus flows from agriculture to upland soils, to surface waters, where it cycles between water and sediments. The ecosystem is multistable, and moves among domains of attraction depending on the history of pollutant inputs. The alternative states yield different economic benefits. Agents form expectations about ecosystem dynamics, markets, and/or the actions of managers, and choose levels of pollutant inputs accordingly. Agents have heterogeneous beliefs and/or access to information. Their aggregate behavior determines the total rate of pollutant input. As the ecosystem changes, agents update their beliefs and expectations about the world they co-create, and modify their actions accordingly. For a wide range of scenarios, we observe irregular oscillations among ecosystem states and patterns of agent behavior. These oscillations resemble some features of the adaptive cycle of panarchy theory.

  14. Distinct Element Method modelling of fold-related fractures in a multilayer sequence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaserer, Klemens; Schöpfer, Martin P. J.; Grasemann, Bernhard

    2017-04-01

    Natural fractures have a significant impact on the performance of hydrocarbon systems/reservoirs. In a multilayer sequence, both the fracture density within the individual layers and the type of fracture intersection with bedding contacts are key parameters controlling fluid pathways. In the present study the influence of layer stacking and interlayer friction on fracture density and connectivity within a folded sequence is systematically investigated using 2D Distinct Element Method modelling. Our numerical approach permits forward modelling of both fracture nucleation/propagation/arrest and (contemporaneous) frictional slip along bedding planes in a robust and mechanically sound manner. Folding of the multilayer sequence is achieved by enforcing constant curvature folding by means of a velocity boundary condition at the model base, while a constant overburden pressure is maintained at the model top. The modelling reveals that with high bedding plane friction the multilayer stack behaves mechanically as a single layer so that the neutral surface develops in centre of the sequence and fracture spacing is controlled by the total thickness of the folded sequence. In contrast, low bedding plane friction leads to decoupling of the individual layers (flexural slip folding) so that a neutral surface develops in the centre of each layer and fracture spacing is controlled by the thickness of the individual layers. The low interfacial friction models illustrate that stepping of fractures across bedding planes is a common process, which can however have two contrasting origins: The mechanical properties of the interface cause fracture stepping during fracture propagation. Originally through-going fractures are later offset by interfacial slip during folding. A combination of these two different origins may lead to (apparently) inconsistent fracture offsets across bedding planes within a flexural slip fold.

  15. Ecological effects of ionizing radiation on population and ecosystem: a computational model ecosystem study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Doi, Masahiro; Fuma, Shoichi; Ishii, Nobuyuki; Sakashita, Tetsuya; Miyamoto, Kiriko; Takeda, Hiroshi; Kawabata, Zenichiro

    2003-01-01

    Ecosystem is a self-sustaining system of complexity, and their responses to the impacts are synergistic and subjected to the demographic stochasticity of the species, environmental stochasticity and randomness. Environmental fate and effects of radiation has ranged from observable DNA damage of the cell to the fare on tissues, individual, population, community and ecosystems. The quantitative, systematic individual-based model, SIM-COSM was developed to simulate impacts of radiation exposure and other toxicants on an aquatic microbial ecosystem (microcosm). The microcosm consists of heterotroph ciliate protozoa (Tetrahymena thermophila B) as a consumer, autotroph flagellate algae (Euglena gracilis Z) as a producer and saprotroph bacteria (Escherichia coli DH5) as a decomposer. The symbiosis among microbes is self-organized by realizing material cycle and sustained for more than 2 years after inoculation. The system can not afford to lose any one of the microbes to maintain its sustainability. Experimental ecotoxicological tests for (a) gamma radiation, (b) Manganese ions and (c) Gadolinium are summarized. Population dynamics of microbes in Microcosm and its computer simulations by SIM-COSM are shown together in a figure. Population dynamics in Microcosm and SIM-COSM exposed to 500 Gy of gamma-radiation at 50 days after inoculation are shown also in a figure. To take the effects on the interactions between species and environment into account, one option is to put the ecotoxicity tests as experimental micro ecosystem study and theoretical model ecosystem analysis. (M. Suetake)

  16. Numerical models for the prediction of failure for multilayer fusion Al-alloy sheets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gorji, Maysam; Berisha, Bekim; Hora, Pavel; Timm, Jürgen

    2013-01-01

    Initiation and propagation of cracks in monolithic and multi-layer aluminum alloys, called “Fusion”, is investigated. 2D plane strain finite element simulations are performed to model deformation due to bending and to predict failure. For this purpose, fracture strains are measured based on microscopic pictures of Nakajima specimens. In addition to, micro-structure of materials is taken into account by introducing a random grain distribution over the sheet thickness as well as a random distribution of the measured yield curve. It is shown that the performed experiments and the introduced FE-Model are appropriate methods to highlight the advantages of the Fusion material, especially for bending processes

  17. Continuum damage model for ferroelectric materials and its application to multilayer actuators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gellmann, Roman; Ricoeur, Andreas

    2016-05-01

    In this paper a micromechanical continuum damage model for ferroelectric materials is presented. As a constitutive law it is implemented into a finite element (FE) code. The model is based on micromechanical considerations of domain switching and its interaction with microcrack growth and coalescence. A FE analysis of a multilayer actuator is performed, showing the initiation of damage zones at the electrode tips during the poling process. Further, the influence of mechanical pre-stressing on damage evolution and actuating properties is investigated. The results provided in this work give useful information on the damage of advanced piezoelectric devices and their optimization.

  18. Modeling the transmitted and stored energy in multilayer protective clothing under low-level radiant exposure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Su, Yun; He, Jiazhen; Li, Jun

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • A numerical model from heating source to skin tissues through multilayer fabric system is developed. • The numerical model is comprehensively validated with experimental data. • The model is used to investigate the relationship between the transmitted and stored energy and the influencing factors. - Abstract: A finite difference model was introduced to simulate the transmitted and stored energy in firefighters' protective clothing exposed to low-level thermal radiation. The model domain consists of a three-layer fire-resistant fabric system (outer shell, moisture barrier, and thermal liner), the human skin, and the air gap between clothing and the skin. The model accounted for the relationship between the transmitted heat during the exposure and the discharged heat during the cooling-down period. The numerical model predictions were compared with experimental data. Additionally, the parameters that affect the transmitted and stored energy of protective clothing were investigated. The results demonstrate that for the typical multilayer firefighter protective clothing, the transmitted heat during exposure and the discharged heat after exposure totally determine the skin burn under low-level heat exposure, especially for third-degree skin burns. The findings obtained in this study can be used to engineer fabric systems that provide better protection for the stored thermal burn.

  19. FPGA Implementation of Multilayer Perceptron for Modeling of Photovoltaic panel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mekki, H.; Belhout, K.; Mellit, A.; Salhi, H.

    2008-01-01

    The Number of electronic applications using artificial neural network-based solutions has increased considerably in the last few years. However, their applications in photovoltaic systems are very limited. This paper introduces the preliminary result of the modeling and simulation of photovoltaic panel based on neural network and VHDL-language. In fact, an experimental database of meteorological data (irradiation, temperature) and output electrical generation signals of the PV-panel (current and voltage) has been used in this study. The inputs of the ANN-PV-panel are the daily total irradiation and mean average temperature while the outputs are the current and voltage generated from the panel. Firstly, a dataset of 4x364 have been used for training the network. Subsequently, the neural network (MLP) corresponding to PV-panel is simulated using VHDL language based on the saved weights and bias of the network. Simulation results of the trained MLP-PV panel based on Matlab and VHDL are presented. The proposed PV-panel model based ANN and VHDL permit to evaluate the performance PV-panel using only the environmental factors and involves less computational efforts, and it can be used for predicting the output electrical energy from the PV-panel

  20. Modeling of the photodetector based on the multilayer graphene nanoribbons

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, Haiyue; Niu, Yanxiong; Yin, Yiheng; Liu, Shuai

    2016-01-01

    Graphene nanoribbon (GNR), which has unique properties and advantages, is a crucial component of nanoelectornic devices, especially in the development of photoelectric detectors. In this work, an infrared photodetector based on the structure of stacked multiple-GNRs, which is separated by a little thick barrier layers (made of tungsten disulfide or related materials) to prevent tunneling current, is proposed and modeled. Operation of photoelectric detector is related to the electron cascaded radiative transition in the adjacent GNRs strengthened by the electrons heated due to the incident light. With a developed model, the working principle is analyzed and the relationships for the photocurrent and dark current as functions of the intensity of the incident radiation are derived. The spectral dependence of the responsivity and detectivity for graphene nanoribbons photodetector (GNRs-PT) with different Fermi energy, band gaps and numbers of GNRs layers are analyzed as well. The results demonstrate that the spectral characteristics depend on the GNRs band gap, which shows a potential on GNRs-PT application in the multi-wavelength systems. In addition, GNRs-PT has a better spectrum property and higher responsivity compared to photodetectors based on In_xGa_xAs in room temperature.

  1. Modeling of the photodetector based on the multilayer graphene nanoribbons

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liu, Haiyue [Department of Instrumentation Science and Opto-electronics Engineering, Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Beijing, 100191 (China); Key Laboratory of Micro-nano Measurement-Manipulation and Physics Ministry of Education, Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Beijing 100191 (China); Niu, Yanxiong, E-mail: niuyx@buaa.edu.cn [Department of Instrumentation Science and Opto-electronics Engineering, Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Beijing, 100191 (China); Key Laboratory of Micro-nano Measurement-Manipulation and Physics Ministry of Education, Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Beijing 100191 (China); Precision Opto-mechatronics Technology Key Laboratory of Education Ministry, Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Beijing 100191 (China); Yin, Yiheng [Department of Instrumentation Science and Opto-electronics Engineering, Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Beijing, 100191 (China); Liu, Shuai [Department of Instrumentation Science and Opto-electronics Engineering, Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Beijing, 100191 (China); Precision Opto-mechatronics Technology Key Laboratory of Education Ministry, Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Beijing 100191 (China)

    2016-07-15

    Graphene nanoribbon (GNR), which has unique properties and advantages, is a crucial component of nanoelectornic devices, especially in the development of photoelectric detectors. In this work, an infrared photodetector based on the structure of stacked multiple-GNRs, which is separated by a little thick barrier layers (made of tungsten disulfide or related materials) to prevent tunneling current, is proposed and modeled. Operation of photoelectric detector is related to the electron cascaded radiative transition in the adjacent GNRs strengthened by the electrons heated due to the incident light. With a developed model, the working principle is analyzed and the relationships for the photocurrent and dark current as functions of the intensity of the incident radiation are derived. The spectral dependence of the responsivity and detectivity for graphene nanoribbons photodetector (GNRs-PT) with different Fermi energy, band gaps and numbers of GNRs layers are analyzed as well. The results demonstrate that the spectral characteristics depend on the GNRs band gap, which shows a potential on GNRs-PT application in the multi-wavelength systems. In addition, GNRs-PT has a better spectrum property and higher responsivity compared to photodetectors based on In{sub x}Ga{sub x}As in room temperature.

  2. AQUATOX coupled foodweb model for ecosystem risk assessment of Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) in lake ecosystems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Lulu; Liu, Jingling

    2014-01-01

    The AQUATOX model considers the direct toxic effects of chemicals and their indirect effects through foodwebs. For this study, the AQUATOX model was applied to evaluating the ecological risk of Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) in a highly anthropogenically disturbed lake-Baiyangdian Lake. Calibration and validation results indicated that the model can adequately describe the dynamics of 18 biological populations. Sensitivity analysis results suggested that the model is highly sensitive to temperature limitation. PBDEs risk estimate results demonstrate that estimated risk for natural ecosystems cannot be fully explained by single species toxicity data alone. The AQUATOX model could provide a good basis in ascertaining ecological protection levels of “chemicals of concern” for aquatic ecosystems. Therefore, AQUATOX can potentially be used to provide necessary information corresponding to early warning and rapid forecasting of pollutant transport and fate in the management of chemicals that put aquatic ecosystems at risk. - Highlights: • AQUATOX model incorporates direct toxic effects and indirect ecological effects. • Ecological risk of PBDEs was assessed by the AQUATOX model. • The model could help determine ecological threshold of “chemicals of concern”. - Capsule abstract: Application of the AQUATOX model to assess the direct and indirect ecological risk of PBDEs

  3. Multilayer Markov Random Field models for change detection in optical remote sensing images

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benedek, Csaba; Shadaydeh, Maha; Kato, Zoltan; Szirányi, Tamás; Zerubia, Josiane

    2015-09-01

    In this paper, we give a comparative study on three Multilayer Markov Random Field (MRF) based solutions proposed for change detection in optical remote sensing images, called Multicue MRF, Conditional Mixed Markov model, and Fusion MRF. Our purposes are twofold. On one hand, we highlight the significance of the focused model family and we set them against various state-of-the-art approaches through a thematic analysis and quantitative tests. We discuss the advantages and drawbacks of class comparison vs. direct approaches, usage of training data, various targeted application fields and different ways of Ground Truth generation, meantime informing the Reader in which roles the Multilayer MRFs can be efficiently applied. On the other hand we also emphasize the differences between the three focused models at various levels, considering the model structures, feature extraction, layer interpretation, change concept definition, parameter tuning and performance. We provide qualitative and quantitative comparison results using principally a publicly available change detection database which contains aerial image pairs and Ground Truth change masks. We conclude that the discussed models are competitive against alternative state-of-the-art solutions, if one uses them as pre-processing filters in multitemporal optical image analysis. In addition, they cover together a large range of applications, considering the different usage options of the three approaches.

  4. Cultural ecosystem services of mountain regions: Modelling the aesthetic value

    OpenAIRE

    Schirpke, Uta; Timmermann, Florian; Tappeiner, Ulrike; Tasser, Erich

    2016-01-01

    Mountain regions meet an increasing demand for pleasant landscapes, offering many cultural ecosystem services to both their residents and tourists. As a result of global change, land managers and policy makers are faced with changes to this landscape and need efficient evaluation techniques to assess cultural ecosystem services. This study provides a spatially explicit modelling approach to estimating aesthetic landscape values by relating spatial landscape patterns to human perceptions via a...

  5. Modelling the Congo basin ecosystems with a dynamic vegetation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dury, Marie; Hambuckers, Alain; Trolliet, Franck; Huynen, Marie-Claude; Haineaux, Damien; Fontaine, Corentin M.; Fayolle, Adeline; François, Louis

    2014-05-01

    The scarcity of field observations in some parts of the world makes difficult a deep understanding of some ecosystems such as humid tropical forests in Central Africa. Therefore, modelling tools are interesting alternatives to study those regions even if the lack of data often prevents sharp calibration and validation of the model projections. Dynamic vegetation models (DVMs) are process-based models that simulate shifts in potential vegetation and its associated biogeochemical and hydrological cycles in response to climate. Initially run at the global scale, DVMs can be run at any spatial scale provided that climate and soil data are available. In the framework of the BIOSERF project ("Sustainability of tropical forest biodiversity and services under climate and human pressure"), we use and adapt the CARAIB dynamic vegetation model (Dury et al., iForest - Biogeosciences and Forestry, 4:82-99, 2011) to study the Congo basin vegetation dynamics. The field campaigns have notably allowed the refinement of the vegetation representation from plant functional types (PFTs) to individual species through the collection of parameters such as the specific leaf area or the leaf C:N ratio of common tropical tree species and the location of their present-day occurrences from literature and available database. Here, we test the model ability to reproduce the present spatial and temporal variations of carbon stocks (e.g. biomass, soil carbon) and fluxes (e.g. gross and net primary productivities (GPP and NPP), net ecosystem production (NEP)) as well as the observed distribution of the studied species over the Congo basin. In the lack of abundant and long-term measurements, we compare model results with time series of remote sensing products (e.g. vegetation leaf area index (LAI), GPP and NPP). Several sensitivity tests are presented: we assess consecutively the impacts of the level at which the vegetation is simulated (PFTs or species), the spatial resolution and the initial land

  6. Benchmarking Multilayer-HySEA model for landslide generated tsunami. HTHMP validation process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macias, J.; Escalante, C.; Castro, M. J.

    2017-12-01

    Landslide tsunami hazard may be dominant along significant parts of the coastline around the world, in particular in the USA, as compared to hazards from other tsunamigenic sources. This fact motivated NTHMP about the need of benchmarking models for landslide generated tsunamis, following the same methodology already used for standard tsunami models when the source is seismic. To perform the above-mentioned validation process, a set of candidate benchmarks were proposed. These benchmarks are based on a subset of available laboratory data sets for solid slide experiments and deformable slide experiments, and include both submarine and subaerial slides. A benchmark based on a historic field event (Valdez, AK, 1964) close the list of proposed benchmarks. A total of 7 benchmarks. The Multilayer-HySEA model including non-hydrostatic effects has been used to perform all the benchmarking problems dealing with laboratory experiments proposed in the workshop that was organized at Texas A&M University - Galveston, on January 9-11, 2017 by NTHMP. The aim of this presentation is to show some of the latest numerical results obtained with the Multilayer-HySEA (non-hydrostatic) model in the framework of this validation effort.Acknowledgements. This research has been partially supported by the Spanish Government Research project SIMURISK (MTM2015-70490-C02-01-R) and University of Malaga, Campus de Excelencia Internacional Andalucía Tech. The GPU computations were performed at the Unit of Numerical Methods (University of Malaga).

  7. Modelling mechanical properties of the multilayer composite materials with the polyamide core

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Talaśka Krzysztof

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Due to the wide range of application for belt conveyors, engineers look for many different combinations of mechanical properties of conveyor and transmission belts. It can be made by creating multilayer or fibre reinforced composite materials from base thermoplastic or thermosetting polymers. In order to gain high strength with proper elasticity and friction coefficient, the core of the composite conveyor belt is made of polyamide film core, which can be combined with various types of polymer fabrics, films or even rubbers. In this paper authors show the complex model of multilayer composite belt with the polyamide core, which can be used in simulation analyses. The following model was derived based on the experimental research, which consisted of tensile, compression and shearing tests. In order to achieve the most accurate model, proper simulations in ABAQUS were made and then the results were compared with empirical mechanical characteristics of a conveyor belt. The main goal of this research is to fully describe the perforation process of conveyor and transmission belts for vacuum belt conveyors. The following model will help to develop design briefs for machines used for mechanical perforation.

  8. Modeling of Heat Transfer and Fluid Flow in the Laser Multilayered Cladding Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kong, Fanrong; Kovacevic, Radovan

    2010-12-01

    The current work examines the heat-and-mass transfer process in the laser multilayered cladding of H13 tool steel powder by numerical modeling and experimental validation. A multiphase transient model is developed to investigate the evolution of the temperature field and flow velocity of the liquid phase in the molten pool. The solid region of the substrate and solidified clad, the liquid region of the melted clad material, and the gas region of the surrounding air are included. In this model, a level-set method is used to track the free surface motion of the molten pool with the powder material feeding and scanning of the laser beam. An enthalpy-porosity approach is applied to deal with the solidification and melting that occurs in the cladding process. Moreover, the laser heat input and heat losses from the forced convection and heat radiation that occurs on the top surface of the deposited layer are incorporated into the source term of the governing equations. The effects of the laser power, scanning speed, and powder-feed rate on the dilution and height of the multilayered clad are investigated based on the numerical model and experimental measurements. The results show that an increase of the laser power and powder feed rate, or a reduction of the scanning speed, can increase the clad height and directly influence the remelted depth of each layer of deposition. The numerical results have a qualitative agreement with the experimental measurements.

  9. Computation accuracy of flow conditions around a very large floating structure using a multi-layer model. Comparison with experimental results; Taso model ni yoru choogata futai mawari no ryukyo keisan seido ni tsuite. Jikken tono hikaku

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kyotsuka, Y [Kyushu University, Fukuoka (Japan); Omori, H; Nakagawa, H; Kobayashi, M [Mitsui Engineering and Shipbuilding Co. Ltd., Tokyo (Japan)

    1996-04-10

    As one of the environmental problems in sea areas surrounding a very large floating structure (VLFS), change in flow condition is important, and it is one of the factors dominating the prediction of succeeding diffusion and ecosystems. Although a multi-layer model is in wide use for computation of flow condition and diffusion in one inner bay, its applicability should be reexamined because of no consideration of VLFSs. In this study, flow velocity profiles around a barge were then measured through the towing test of a barge in shallow water, and compared with computation results using a multi-layer model. The multi-layer model computed the flow velocity profiles by dividing the flow region to be computed into normal one and that under VLFS, and determined pressures under VLFS by 2-D Poisson`s equation. Slip condition was used as boundary condition at the bottom considering the number of layers under VLFS. Further numerical computation was conducted by 2-D MAC method, in particular, to compare flow around the wake of VLFS with experimental one. Both computation results well agreed with experimental one. 3 refs., 9 figs., 1 tab.

  10. Multilayer Perceptron Neural Networks Model for Meteosat Second Generation SEVIRI Daytime Cloud Masking

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alireza Taravat

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available A multilayer perceptron neural network cloud mask for Meteosat Second Generation SEVIRI (Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager images is introduced and evaluated. The model is trained for cloud detection on MSG SEVIRI daytime data. It consists of a multi-layer perceptron with one hidden sigmoid layer, trained with the error back-propagation algorithm. The model is fed by six bands of MSG data (0.6, 0.8, 1.6, 3.9, 6.2 and 10.8 μm with 10 hidden nodes. The multiple-layer perceptrons lead to a cloud detection accuracy of 88.96%, when trained to map two predefined values that classify cloud and clear sky. The network was further evaluated using sixty MSG images taken at different dates. The network detected not only bright thick clouds but also thin or less bright clouds. The analysis demonstrated the feasibility of using machine learning models of cloud detection in MSG SEVIRI imagery.

  11. Optimal foraging in marine ecosystem models: selectivity, profitability and switching

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Visser, Andre W.; Fiksen, Ø.

    2013-01-01

    ecological mechanics and evolutionary logic as a solution to diet selection in ecosystem models. When a predator can consume a range of prey items it has to choose which foraging mode to use, which prey to ignore and which ones to pursue, and animals are known to be particularly skilled in adapting...... to the preference functions commonly used in models today. Indeed, depending on prey class resolution, optimal foraging can yield feeding rates that are considerably different from the ‘switching functions’ often applied in marine ecosystem models. Dietary inclusion is dictated by two optimality choices: 1...... by letting predators maximize energy intake or more properly, some measure of fitness where predation risk and cost are also included. An optimal foraging or fitness maximizing approach will give marine ecosystem models a sound principle to determine trophic interactions...

  12. Parameter sensitivity study of a Field II multilayer transducer model on a convex transducer

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bæk, David; Jensen, Jørgen Arendt; Willatzen, Morten

    2009-01-01

    A multilayer transducer model for predicting a transducer impulse response has in earlier works been developed and combined with the Field II software. This development was tested on current, voltage, and intensity measurements on piezoceramics discs (Bæk et al. IUS 2008) and a convex 128 element...... ultrasound imaging transducer (Bæk et al. ICU 2009). The model benefits from its 1D simplicity and hasshown to give an amplitude error around 1.7‐2 dB. However, any prediction of amplitude, phase, and attenuation of pulses relies on the accuracy of manufacturer supplied material characteristics, which may...... is a quantitative calibrated model for a complete ultrasound system. This includes a sensitivity study aspresented here.Statement of Contribution/MethodsThe study alters 35 different model parameters which describe a 128 element convex transducer from BK Medical Aps. The changes are within ±20 % of the values...

  13. Modelling ecosystem service flows under uncertainty with stochiastic SPAN

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Gary W.; Snapp, Robert R.; Villa, Ferdinando; Bagstad, Kenneth J.

    2012-01-01

    Ecosystem service models are increasingly in demand for decision making. However, the data required to run these models are often patchy, missing, outdated, or untrustworthy. Further, communication of data and model uncertainty to decision makers is often either absent or unintuitive. In this work, we introduce a systematic approach to addressing both the data gap and the difficulty in communicating uncertainty through a stochastic adaptation of the Service Path Attribution Networks (SPAN) framework. The SPAN formalism assesses ecosystem services through a set of up to 16 maps, which characterize the services in a study area in terms of flow pathways between ecosystems and human beneficiaries. Although the SPAN algorithms were originally defined deterministically, we present them here in a stochastic framework which combines probabilistic input data with a stochastic transport model in order to generate probabilistic spatial outputs. This enables a novel feature among ecosystem service models: the ability to spatially visualize uncertainty in the model results. The stochastic SPAN model can analyze areas where data limitations are prohibitive for deterministic models. Greater uncertainty in the model inputs (including missing data) should lead to greater uncertainty expressed in the model’s output distributions. By using Bayesian belief networks to fill data gaps and expert-provided trust assignments to augment untrustworthy or outdated information, we can account for uncertainty in input data, producing a model that is still able to run and provide information where strictly deterministic models could not. Taken together, these attributes enable more robust and intuitive modelling of ecosystem services under uncertainty.

  14. Inferential ecosystem models, from network data to prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    James S. Clark; Pankaj Agarwal; David M. Bell; Paul G. Flikkema; Alan Gelfand; Xuanlong Nguyen; Eric Ward; Jun Yang

    2011-01-01

    Recent developments suggest that predictive modeling could begin to play a larger role not only for data analysis, but also for data collection. We address the example of efficient wireless sensor networks, where inferential ecosystem models can be used to weigh the value of an observation against the cost of data collection. Transmission costs make observations ‘‘...

  15. Modeling carbon and nitrogen biogeochemistry in forest ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Changsheng Li; Carl Trettin; Ge Sun; Steve McNulty; Klaus Butterbach-Bahl

    2005-01-01

    A forest biogeochemical model, Forest-DNDC, was developed to quantify carbon sequestration in and trace gas emissions from forest ecosystems. Forest-DNDC was constructed by integrating two existing moels, PnET and DNDC, with several new features including nitrification, forest litter layer, soil freezing and thawing etc, PnET is a forest physiological model predicting...

  16. Models for predicting fuel consumption in sagebrush-dominated ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clinton S. Wright

    2013-01-01

    Fuel consumption predictions are necessary to accurately estimate or model fire effects, including pollutant emissions during wildland fires. Fuel and environmental measurements on a series of operational prescribed fires were used to develop empirical models for predicting fuel consumption in big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentate Nutt.) ecosystems....

  17. A community-based framework for aquatic ecosystem models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Trolle, D.; Hamilton, D.P.; Hipsey, M.R.; Bolding, K.; Bruggeman, J.; Mooij, W.M.; Janse, J.H.; Nielsen, A.; Jeppesen, E.; Elliott, J.A.; Makler-Pick, V.; Petzoldt, T.; Rinke, K.; Flindt, M.R.; Arhonditsis, G.B.; Gal, G.; Bjerring, R.; Tominaga, K.; Hoen, 't J.; Downing, A.S.; Marques, D.M.; Fragoso, C.R.; Sondergaard, M.; Hanson, P.C.

    2012-01-01

    Here, we communicate a point of departure in the development of aquatic ecosystem models, namely a new community-based framework, which supports an enhanced and transparent union between the collective expertise that exists in the communities of traditional ecologists and model developers. Through a

  18. Evaluating the governance model of hardware-dependent software ecosystems - a case study of the axis ecosystem

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wnuk, Krzysztof; Manikas, Konstantinos; Runeson, Per

    2014-01-01

    specifically, we evaluate the governance model applied by Axis, a network video and surveillance camera producer, that is the platform owner and orchestrator of the Application Development Partner (ADP) software ecosystem. We conduct an exploratory case study collecting data from observations and interviews...... and apply the governance model for prevention and improvement of the software ecosystem health proposed by Jansen and Cusumano. Our results reveal that although the governance actions do not address the majority of their governance model, the ADP ecosystem is considered a growing ecosystem providing...

  19. Use of hydrologic and hydrodynamic modeling for ecosystem restoration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Obeysekera, J.; Kuebler, L.; Ahmed, S.; Chang, M.-L.; Engel, V.; Langevin, C.; Swain, E.; Wan, Y.

    2011-01-01

    Planning and implementation of unprecedented projects for restoring the greater Everglades ecosystem are underway and the hydrologic and hydrodynamic modeling of restoration alternatives has become essential for success of restoration efforts. In view of the complex nature of the South Florida water resources system, regional-scale (system-wide) hydrologic models have been developed and used extensively for the development of the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan. In addition, numerous subregional-scale hydrologic and hydrodynamic models have been developed and are being used for evaluating project-scale water management plans associated with urban, agricultural, and inland costal ecosystems. The authors provide a comprehensive summary of models of all scales, as well as the next generation models under development to meet the future needs of ecosystem restoration efforts in South Florida. The multiagency efforts to develop and apply models have allowed the agencies to understand the complex hydrologic interactions, quantify appropriate performance measures, and use new technologies in simulation algorithms, software development, and GIS/database techniques to meet the future modeling needs of the ecosystem restoration programs. Copyright ?? 2011 Taylor & Francis Group, LLC.

  20. A comparison of tools for modeling freshwater ecosystem services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vigerstol, Kari L; Aukema, Juliann E

    2011-10-01

    Interest in ecosystem services has grown tremendously among a wide range of sectors, including government agencies, NGO's and the business community. Ecosystem services entailing freshwater (e.g. flood control, the provision of hydropower, and water supply), as well as carbon storage and sequestration, have received the greatest attention in both scientific and on-the-ground applications. Given the newness of the field and the variety of tools for predicting water-based services, it is difficult to know which tools to use for different questions. There are two types of freshwater-related tools--traditional hydrologic tools and newer ecosystem services tools. Here we review two of the most prominent tools of each type and their possible applications. In particular, we compare the data requirements, ease of use, questions addressed, and interpretability of results among the models. We discuss the strengths, challenges and most appropriate applications of the different models. Traditional hydrological tools provide more detail whereas ecosystem services tools tend to be more accessible to non-experts and can provide a good general picture of these ecosystem services. We also suggest gaps in the modeling toolbox that would provide the greatest advances by improving existing tools. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Echo simulation of lunar penetrating radar: based on a model of inhomogeneous multilayer lunar regolith structure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dai Shun; Su Yan; Xiao Yuan; Feng Jian-Qing; Xing Shu-Guo; Ding Chun-Yu

    2014-01-01

    Lunar Penetrating Radar (LPR) based on the time domain Ultra-Wideband (UWB) technique onboard China's Chang'e-3 (CE-3) rover, has the goal of investigating the lunar subsurface structure and detecting the depth of lunar regolith. An inhomogeneous multi-layer microwave transfer inverse-model is established. The dielectric constant of the lunar regolith, the velocity of propagation, the reflection, refraction and transmission at interfaces, and the resolution are discussed. The model is further used to numerically simulate and analyze temporal variations in the echo obtained from the LPR attached on CE-3's rover, to reveal the location and structure of lunar regolith. The thickness of the lunar regolith is calculated by a comparison between the simulated radar B-scan images based on the model and the detected result taken from the CE-3 lunar mission. The potential scientific return from LPR echoes taken from the landing region is also discussed

  2. Echo simulation of lunar penetrating radar: based on a model of inhomogeneous multilayer lunar regolith structure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dai, Shun; Su, Yan; Xiao, Yuan; Feng, Jian-Qing; Xing, Shu-Guo; Ding, Chun-Yu

    2014-12-01

    Lunar Penetrating Radar (LPR) based on the time domain Ultra-Wideband (UWB) technique onboard China's Chang'e-3 (CE-3) rover, has the goal of investigating the lunar subsurface structure and detecting the depth of lunar regolith. An inhomogeneous multi-layer microwave transfer inverse-model is established. The dielectric constant of the lunar regolith, the velocity of propagation, the reflection, refraction and transmission at interfaces, and the resolution are discussed. The model is further used to numerically simulate and analyze temporal variations in the echo obtained from the LPR attached on CE-3's rover, to reveal the location and structure of lunar regolith. The thickness of the lunar regolith is calculated by a comparison between the simulated radar B-scan images based on the model and the detected result taken from the CE-3 lunar mission. The potential scientific return from LPR echoes taken from the landing region is also discussed.

  3. Monolayer and multilayer adsorption isotherm models for sorption from aqueous media

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Saadi, Reyhaneh; Saadi, Zahra; Fazaeli, Reza; Fard, Narges Elmi [Islamic Azad University, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

    2015-05-15

    Industrial wastewater polluted with various contaminants, including heavy metals, dyes, etc., endangers human health and the environment. Various separation techniques have been developed for the removal of pollutants from aqueous solutions. Adsorption process has drawn considerable attention due to its simplicity of design, high removal efficiency, even at dilute concentration, and economical aspect. We reviewed the most common two, three, four, and five parameter adsorption isotherm models corresponding to monolayer and multilayer adsorption on the basis of parameters that can be used for exploring novel adsorbents. Thermodynamic assumptions of the models give information about the surface properties, capacity of the adsorbent and adsorption mechanism. Seven error functions were investigated to evaluate the fitness quality of isotherm models with the experimental equilibrium data.

  4. Modeling of Nonlinear Propagation in Multi-layer Biological Tissues for Strong Focused Ultrasound

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ting-Bo, Fan; Zhen-Bo, Liu; Zhe, Zhang; Dong, Zhang; Xiu-Fen, Gong

    2009-01-01

    A theoretical model of the nonlinear propagation in multi-layered tissues for strong focused ultrasound is proposed. In this model, the spheroidal beam equation (SBE) is utilized to describe the nonlinear sound propagation in each layer tissue, and generalized oblique incidence theory is used to deal with the sound transmission between two layer tissues. Computer simulation is performed on a fat-muscle-liver tissue model under the irradiation of a 1 MHz focused transducer with a large aperture angle of 35°. The results demonstrate that the tissue layer would change the amplitude of sound pressure at the focal region and cause the increase of side petals. (fundamental areas of phenomenology (including applications))

  5. Regional atmospheric budgets of reduced nitrogen over the British isles assessed using a multi-layer atmospheric transport model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fournier, N.; Tang, Y.S.; Dragosits, U.; Kluizenaar, Y.de; Sutton, M.A.

    2005-01-01

    Atmospheric budgets of reduced nitrogen for the major political regions of the British Isles are investigated with a multi-layer atmospheric transport model. The model is validated against measurements of NH3 concentration and is developed to provide atmospheric budgets for defined subdomains of the

  6. A Corrected Formulation of the Multilayer Model (MLM) for Inferring Gaseous Dry Deposition to Vegetated Surfaces

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saylor, Rick D.; Wolfe, Glenn M.; Meyers, Tilden P.; Hicks, Bruce B.

    2014-01-01

    The Multilayer Model (MLM) has been used for many years to infer dry deposition fluxes from measured trace species concentrations and standard meteorological measurements for national networks in the U.S., including the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Clean Air Status and Trends Network (CASTNet). MLM utilizes a resistance analogy to calculate deposition velocities appropriate for whole vegetative canopies, while employing a multilayer integration to account for vertically varying meteorology, canopy morphology and radiative transfer within the canopy. However, the MLM formulation, as it was originally presented and as it has been subsequently employed, contains a non-physical representation related to the leaf-level quasi-laminar boundary layer resistance that affects the calculation of the total canopy resistance. In this note, the non-physical representation of the canopy resistance as originally formulated in MLM is discussed and a revised, physically consistent, formulation is suggested as a replacement. The revised canopy resistance formulation reduces estimates of HNO3 deposition velocities by as much as 38% during mid-day as compared to values generated by the original formulation. Inferred deposition velocities for SO2 and O3 are not significantly altered by the change in formulation (less than 3%). Inferred deposition loadings of oxidized and total nitrogen from CASTNet data may be reduced by 10-20% and 5-10%, respectively, for the Eastern U. S. when employing the revised formulation of MLM as compared to the original formulation.

  7. Damped trophic cascades driven by fishing in model marine ecosystems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Ken Haste; Pedersen, Martin

    2010-01-01

    The largest perturbation on upper trophic levels of many marine ecosystems stems from fishing. The reaction of the ecosystem goes beyond the trophic levels directly targeted by the fishery. This reaction has been described either as a change in slope of the overall size spectrum or as a trophic...... cascade triggered by the removal of top predators. Here we use a novel size- and trait-based model to explore how marine ecosystems might react to perturbations from different types of fishing pressure. The model explicitly resolves the whole life history of fish, from larvae to adults. The results show...... that fishing does not change the overall slope of the size spectrum, but depletes the largest individuals and induces trophic cascades. A trophic cascade can propagate both up and down in trophic levels driven by a combination of changes in predation mortality and food limitation. The cascade is damped...

  8. Challenges and opportunities for integrating lake ecosystem modelling approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mooij, Wolf M.; Trolle, Dennis; Jeppesen, Erik; Arhonditsis, George; Belolipetsky, Pavel V.; Chitamwebwa, Deonatus B.R.; Degermendzhy, Andrey G.; DeAngelis, Donald L.; Domis, Lisette N. De Senerpont; Downing, Andrea S.; Elliott, J. Alex; Ruberto, Carlos Ruberto; Gaedke, Ursula; Genova, Svetlana N.; Gulati, Ramesh D.; Hakanson, Lars; Hamilton, David P.; Hipsey, Matthew R.; Hoen, Jochem 't; Hulsmann, Stephan; Los, F. Hans; Makler-Pick, Vardit; Petzoldt, Thomas; Prokopkin, Igor G.; Rinke, Karsten; Schep, Sebastiaan A.; Tominaga, Koji; Van Dam, Anne A.; Van Nes, Egbert H.; Wells, Scott A.; Janse, Jan H.

    2010-01-01

    A large number and wide variety of lake ecosystem models have been developed and published during the past four decades. We identify two challenges for making further progress in this field. One such challenge is to avoid developing more models largely following the concept of others ('reinventing the wheel'). The other challenge is to avoid focusing on only one type of model, while ignoring new and diverse approaches that have become available ('having tunnel vision'). In this paper, we aim at improving the awareness of existing models and knowledge of concurrent approaches in lake ecosystem modelling, without covering all possible model tools and avenues. First, we present a broad variety of modelling approaches. To illustrate these approaches, we give brief descriptions of rather arbitrarily selected sets of specific models. We deal with static models (steady state and regression models), complex dynamic models (CAEDYM, CE-QUAL-W2, Delft 3D-ECO, LakeMab, LakeWeb, MyLake, PCLake, PROTECH, SALMO), structurally dynamic models and minimal dynamic models. We also discuss a group of approaches that could all be classified as individual based: super-individual models (Piscator, Charisma), physiologically structured models, stage-structured models and trait-based models. We briefly mention genetic algorithms, neural networks, Kalman filters and fuzzy logic. Thereafter, we zoom in, as an in-depth example, on the multi-decadal development and application of the lake ecosystem model PCLake and related models (PCLake Metamodel, Lake Shira Model, IPH-TRIM3D-PCLake). In the discussion, we argue that while the historical development of each approach and model is understandable given its 'leading principle', there are many opportunities for combining approaches. We take the point of view that a single 'right' approach does not exist and should not be strived for. Instead, multiple modelling approaches, applied concurrently to a given problem, can help develop an integrative

  9. A probabilistic model of ecosystem response to climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shevliakova, E.; Dowlatabadi, H.

    1994-01-01

    Anthropogenic activities are leading to rapid changes in land cover and emissions of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. These changes can bring about climate change typified by average global temperatures rising by 1--5 C over the next century. Climate change of this magnitude is likely to alter the distribution of terrestrial ecosystems on a large scale. Options available for dealing with such change are abatement of emissions, adaptation, and geoengineering. The integrated assessment of climate change demands that frameworks be developed where all the elements of the climate problem are present (from economic activity to climate change and its impacts on market and non-market goods and services). Integrated climate assessment requires multiple impact metrics and multi-attribute utility functions to simulate the response of different key actors/decision-makers to the actual physical impacts (rather than a dollar value) of the climate-damage vs. policy-cost debate. This necessitates direct modeling of ecosystem impacts of climate change. The authors have developed a probabilistic model of ecosystem response to global change. This model differs from previous efforts in that it is statistically estimated using actual ecosystem and climate data yielding a joint multivariate probability of prevalence for each ecosystem, given climatic conditions. The authors expect this approach to permit simulation of inertia and competition which have, so far, been absent in transfer models of continental-scale ecosystem response to global change. Thus, although the probability of one ecotype will dominate others at a given point, others would have the possibility of establishing an early foothold

  10. Modelling of radionuclide migration in forest ecosystems. A literature review

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Avila, R.; Moberg, L.; Hubbard, L.

    1998-03-01

    The Chernobyl accident has clearly shown the long-term effects of a radioactive contamination of forest ecosystems. This report is based on a literature review of models which describe the migration of radionuclides, radioactive caesium in particular, in forest ecosystems. The report describes the particularities of the forest ecosystem, the time dynamics of the contamination, the transfer processes and factors influencing caesium migration. This provides a basis for a discussion of different approaches for modelling caesium migration in the forest. It is concluded that the studied dynamic models include the most relevant transfer processes both for the acute and the long-term phase after a radioactive deposition. However, most models are site specific and do not consider some of the factors responsible for the differences in radionuclide behaviour and distribution in different types of forests. Although model improvements are constrained by the availability of experimental data and by the lack of knowledge of the migration mechanisms some possible improvements are discussed. This report is part of the LANDSCAPE project. -An integrated approach to radionuclide flow in the semi-natural ecosystems underlying exposure pathways to man. 42 refs, 3 tabs, 9 figs.

  11. Modelling of radionuclide migration in forest ecosystems. A literature review

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Avila, R.; Moberg, L.; Hubbard, L.

    1998-03-01

    The Chernobyl accident has clearly shown the long-term effects of a radioactive contamination of forest ecosystems. This report is based on a literature review of models which describe the migration of radionuclides, radioactive caesium in particular, in forest ecosystems. The report describes the particularities of the forest ecosystem, the time dynamics of the contamination, the transfer processes and factors influencing caesium migration. This provides a basis for a discussion of different approaches for modelling caesium migration in the forest. It is concluded that the studied dynamic models include the most relevant transfer processes both for the acute and the long-term phase after a radioactive deposition. However, most models are site specific and do not consider some of the factors responsible for the differences in radionuclide behaviour and distribution in different types of forests. Although model improvements are constrained by the availability of experimental data and by the lack of knowledge of the migration mechanisms some possible improvements are discussed. This report is part of the LANDSCAPE project. -An integrated approach to radionuclide flow in the semi-natural ecosystems underlying exposure pathways to man

  12. Efficient Model Order Reduction for the Dynamics of Nonlinear Multilayer Sheet Structures with Trial Vector Derivatives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wolfgang Witteveen

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The mechanical response of multilayer sheet structures, such as leaf springs or car bodies, is largely determined by the nonlinear contact and friction forces between the sheets involved. Conventional computational approaches based on classical reduction techniques or the direct finite element approach have an inefficient balance between computational time and accuracy. In the present contribution, the method of trial vector derivatives is applied and extended in order to obtain a-priori trial vectors for the model reduction which are suitable for determining the nonlinearities in the joints of the reduced system. Findings show that the result quality in terms of displacements and contact forces is comparable to the direct finite element method but the computational effort is extremely low due to the model order reduction. Two numerical studies are presented to underline the method’s accuracy and efficiency. In conclusion, this approach is discussed with respect to the existing body of literature.

  13. A generalized voter model with time-decaying memory on a multilayer network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhong, Li-Xin; Xu, Wen-Juan; Chen, Rong-Da; Zhong, Chen-Yang; Qiu, Tian; Shi, Yong-Dong; Wang, Li-Liang

    2016-09-01

    By incorporating a multilayer network and time-decaying memory into the original voter model, we investigate the coupled effects of spatial and temporal accumulation of peer pressure on the consensus. Heterogeneity in peer pressure and the time-decaying mechanism are both shown to be detrimental to the consensus. We find the transition points below which a consensus can always be reached and above which two opposed opinions are more likely to coexist. Our mean-field analysis indicates that the phase transitions in the present model are governed by the cumulative influence of peer pressure and the updating threshold. We find a functional relation between the consensus threshold and the decay rate of the influence of peer is found. As to the pressure. The time required to reach a consensus is governed by the coupling of the memory length and the decay rate. An intermediate decay rate may greatly reduce the time required to reach a consensus.

  14. A model of the response of GMR of metallic multilayers to external magnetic field

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Uba J.I.

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available It has not been possible to transform resistivity models in terms of magnetic field in order to account for variation of giant magnetoresistance (GMR with external magnetic field, which would have led to determination of material properties. This problem is approached mathematically via variation calculus to arrive at an exponential function that fits observed GMR values. Using this model in free electron approximation, the mean Fermi vector, susceptibility and total density of states of a number of metallic multilayers are determined from their reported GMR values. Susceptibility is found to depend on interface roughness and antiferromagnetic (AF coupling; thus, it gives qualitative measure of interface quality and AF coupling. Comparison of susceptibilities and GMRs of electrodeposited and ion beam sputtered Co/Cu structures shows that a rough interface suppresses GMR in the former but enhances it in the latter.

  15. Multilayer Brain Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vaiana, Michael; Muldoon, Sarah Feldt

    2018-01-01

    The field of neuroscience is facing an unprecedented expanse in the volume and diversity of available data. Traditionally, network models have provided key insights into the structure and function of the brain. With the advent of big data in neuroscience, both more sophisticated models capable of characterizing the increasing complexity of the data and novel methods of quantitative analysis are needed. Recently, multilayer networks, a mathematical extension of traditional networks, have gained increasing popularity in neuroscience due to their ability to capture the full information of multi-model, multi-scale, spatiotemporal data sets. Here, we review multilayer networks and their applications in neuroscience, showing how incorporating the multilayer framework into network neuroscience analysis has uncovered previously hidden features of brain networks. We specifically highlight the use of multilayer networks to model disease, structure-function relationships, network evolution, and link multi-scale data. Finally, we close with a discussion of promising new directions of multilayer network neuroscience research and propose a modified definition of multilayer networks designed to unite and clarify the use of the multilayer formalism in describing real-world systems.

  16. Phase constitution and interface structure of nano-sized Ag-Cu/AlN multilayers: Experiment and ab initio modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pigozzi, Giancarlo; Janczak-Rusch, Jolanta; Passerone, Daniele; Antonio Pignedoli, Carlo; Patscheider, Joerg; Jeurgens, Lars P. H. [Empa, Swiss Federal Laboratories for Materials Science and Technology, Ueberlandstrasse 129, CH-8600 Duebendorf (Switzerland); Antusek, Andrej [Empa, Swiss Federal Laboratories for Materials Science and Technology, Ueberlandstrasse 129, CH-8600 Duebendorf (Switzerland); Faculty of Materials Science and Technology, Slovak University of Technology in Bratislava, Paulinska 16, 917 24 Trnava (Slovakia); Parlinska-Wojtan, Magdalena [Empa, Swiss Federal Laboratories for Materials Science and Technology, Ueberlandstrasse 129, CH-8600 Duebendorf (Switzerland); University of Rzeszow, Institute of Physics, ul. Rejtana 16a, 35-959 Rzeszow (Poland); Bissig, Vinzenz [Kirsten Soldering AG, Hinterbergstrasse 32, CH-6330 Cham (Switzerland)

    2012-10-29

    Nano-sized Ag-Cu{sub 8nm}/AlN{sub 10nm} multilayers were deposited by reactive DC sputtering on {alpha}-Al{sub 2}O{sub 3}(0001) substrates. Investigation of the phase constitution and interface structure of the multilayers evidences a phase separation of the alloy sublayers into nanosized grains of Ag and Cu. The interfaces between the Ag grains and the quasi-single-crystalline AlN sublayers are semi-coherent, whereas the corresponding Cu/AlN interfaces are incoherent. The orientation relationship between Ag and AlN is constant throughout the entire multilayer stack. These observations are consistent with atomistic models of the interfaces as obtained by ab initio calculations.

  17. A multi-physics modelling framework to describe the behaviour of nano-scale multilayer systems undergoing irradiation damage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Villani, Aurelien

    2015-01-01

    Radiation damage is known to lead to material failure and thus is of critical importance to lifetime and safety within nuclear reactors. While mechanical behaviour of materials under irradiation has been the subject of numerous studies, the current predictive capabilities of such phenomena appear limited. The clustering of point defects such as vacancies and self interstitial atoms gives rise to creep, void swelling and material embrittlement. Nano-scale metallic multilayer systems have be shown to have the ability to evacuate such point defects, hence delaying the occurrence of critical damage. In addition, they exhibit outstanding mechanical properties. The objective of this work is to develop a thermodynamically consistent continuum framework at the meso and nano-scales, which accounts for the major physical processes encountered in such metallic multilayer systems and is able to predict their microstructural evolution and behavior under irradiation. Mainly three physical phenomena are addressed in the present work: stress-diffusion coupling and diffusion induced creep, the void nucleation and growth in multilayer systems under irradiation, and the interaction of dislocations with the multilayer interfaces. In this framework, the microstructure is explicitly modeled, in order to account accurately for their effects on the system behavior. The diffusion creep strain rate is related to the gradient of the vacancy flux. A Cahn-Hilliard approach is used to model void nucleation and growth, and the diffusion equations for vacancies and self interstitial atoms are complemented to take into account the production of point defects due to irradiation cascades, the mutual recombination of defects and their evacuation through grain boundaries. In metallic multilayers, an interface affected zone is defined, with an additional slip plane to model the interface shearable character, and where dislocations cores are able to spread. The model is then implemented numerically

  18. Evaluating the Governance Model of Hardware-Dependent Software Ecosystems – A Case Study of the Axis Ecosystem

    OpenAIRE

    Wnuk, Krzysztof; Manikas, Konstantinos; Runeson, Per; Matilda, Lantz; Oskar, Weijden; Munir, Hussan

    2014-01-01

    Ecosystem governance becomes gradually more relevant for a set of companies or actors characterized by symbiotic relations evolved on the top of a technological platform, i.e. a software ecosystem. In this study, we focus on the governance of a hardware-dependent software ecosystem. More specifically, we evaluate the governance model applied by Axis, a network video and surveillance camera producer, that is the platform owner and orchestrator of the Application Development Partner (ADP) softw...

  19. An Analytical Model for Multilayer Well Production Evaluation to Overcome Cross-Flow Problem

    KAUST Repository

    Hakiki, Farizal; Wibowo, Aris T.; Rahmawati, Silvya D.; Yasutra, Amega; Sukarno, Pudjo

    2017-01-01

    One of the major concerns in a multi-layer system is that interlayer cross-flow may occur if reservoir fluids are produced from commingled layers that have unequal initial pressures. Reservoir would commonly have bigger average reservoir pressure (pore fluid pressure) as it goes deeper. The phenomenon is, however, not followed by the reservoir productivity or injectivity. The existence of reservoir with quite low average-pressure and high injectivity would tend experiencing the cross-flow problem. It is a phenomenon of fluid from bottom layer flowing into upper layer. It would strict upper-layer fluid to flow into wellbore. It is as if there is an injection treatment from bottom layer. The study deploys productivity index an approach parameter taking into account of cross-flow problem instead of injectivity index since it is a production well. The analytical study is to model the reservoir multilayer by addressing to avoid cross-flow problem. The analytical model employed hypothetical and real field data to test it. The scope of this study are: (a) Develop mathematical-based solution to determine the production rate from each layer; (b) Assess different scenarios to optimize production rate, those are: pump setting depth and performance of in-situ choke (ISC) installation. The ISC is acting as an inflow control device (ICD) alike that help to reduce cross-flow occurrence. This study employed macro program to write the code and develop the interface. Fast iterative procedure happens on solving the analytical model. Comparison results recognized that the mathematical-based solution shows a good agreement with the commercial software derived results.

  20. An Analytical Model for Multilayer Well Production Evaluation to Overcome Cross-Flow Problem

    KAUST Repository

    Hakiki, Farizal

    2017-10-17

    One of the major concerns in a multi-layer system is that interlayer cross-flow may occur if reservoir fluids are produced from commingled layers that have unequal initial pressures. Reservoir would commonly have bigger average reservoir pressure (pore fluid pressure) as it goes deeper. The phenomenon is, however, not followed by the reservoir productivity or injectivity. The existence of reservoir with quite low average-pressure and high injectivity would tend experiencing the cross-flow problem. It is a phenomenon of fluid from bottom layer flowing into upper layer. It would strict upper-layer fluid to flow into wellbore. It is as if there is an injection treatment from bottom layer. The study deploys productivity index an approach parameter taking into account of cross-flow problem instead of injectivity index since it is a production well. The analytical study is to model the reservoir multilayer by addressing to avoid cross-flow problem. The analytical model employed hypothetical and real field data to test it. The scope of this study are: (a) Develop mathematical-based solution to determine the production rate from each layer; (b) Assess different scenarios to optimize production rate, those are: pump setting depth and performance of in-situ choke (ISC) installation. The ISC is acting as an inflow control device (ICD) alike that help to reduce cross-flow occurrence. This study employed macro program to write the code and develop the interface. Fast iterative procedure happens on solving the analytical model. Comparison results recognized that the mathematical-based solution shows a good agreement with the commercial software derived results.

  1. Renormalization group study of the multi-layer sine-gordon model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nandori, I.

    2005-01-01

    Complete text of publication follows. We analyze the phase structure of the system of coupled sine-Gordon (SG) type field theoric models. The 'pure,' SG model is periodic in the internal space spanned by the field variable. The central subjects of investigation is the multi-layer sine-Gordon (LSG) model, where the periodicity is broken partially by the coupling terms between the layers each of which is described by a scalar field, where the second term on the r.h.s. describes the interaction of the layers. Here, we dis- cuss the generalization of the results obtained for the two-layer sine-Gordon model found in the previous study. Besides the obvious field theoretical interest, the LSG model has been used to describe the vortex properties of high transition temperature superconductors, and the extension of the previous analysis to a general N-layer model is necessary for a description of the critical behaviour of vortices in realistic multi-layer systems. The couplings between the layers can be considered as mass terms. Since the periodicity of the LSG model has been broken only partially, the N-layer model has always a single zero mass eigenvalue. The presence of this single zero mass eigenvalue is found to be decisive with respect to the phase structure of the N-layer models. By a suitable rotation of the field variables, we identify the periodic mode (which corresponds to the zero mass eigenvalue) and N - 1 non-periodic modes (with explicit mass terms). The N - 1 non-periodic modes have a trivial IR scaling which holds independently of β which has been proven consistently using (i) the non-perturbative renormalization group study of the rotated model, (ii) the Gaussian integration about the vanishing-field saddle point. Due to the presence of the periodic mode the model undergoes a Kosterlitz-Thouless type phase transition which occurs at a coupling parameter β c 2 = 8Nπ, where N is the number of layers. The critical value β c 2 corresponds to the critical

  2. Linking an ecosystem model and a landscape model to study forest species response to climate warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong S. He; David J. Mladenoff; Thomas R. Crow

    1999-01-01

    No single model can address forest change from single tree to regional scales. We discuss a framework linking an ecosystem process model {LINKAGES) with a spatial landscape model (LANDIS) to examine forest species responses to climate warming for a large, heterogeneous landscape in northern Wisconsin, USA. Individual species response at the ecosystem scale was...

  3. Model of a coral reef ecosystem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atkinson, Marlin J.; Grigg, Richard W.

    1984-08-01

    The ECOPATH model for French Frigate Shoals estimates the benthic plant production (net primary production in kg wet weight) required to support the atoll food chain. In this section we estimate the benthic net primary production and net community production of the atoll based on metabolism studies of reef flat, knolls, and lagoon communities at French Frigate Shoals Hawaii. Community metabolism was measured during winter and summer. The reef communities at French Frigate Shoals exhibited patterns and rates of organic carbon production and calcification similar to other reefs in the world. The estimate of net primary production is 6.1·106 kg wet weight km-2 year-1±50%, a value remarkably close to the estimate by the ECOPATH model of 4.3·106 kg wet weight km-2 year-1. Our estimate of net community production or the amount of carbon not consumed by the benthos was high; approximately 15% of the net primary production. Model results indicate that about 5% of net primary production is passed up the food chain to mobile predators. This suggests about 10% of net primary production (˜6% of gross primary production) may be permanently lost to the system via sediment burial or export offshore.

  4. Modelling single shot damage thresholds of multilayer optics for high-intensity short-wavelength radiation sources

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Loch, R.A.; Sobierajski, R.; Louis, Eric; Bosgra, J.; Bosgra, J.; Bijkerk, Frederik

    2012-01-01

    The single shot damage thresholds of multilayer optics for highintensity short-wavelength radiation sources are theoretically investigated, using a model developed on the basis of experimental data obtained at the FLASH and LCLS free electron lasers. We compare the radiation hardness of commonly

  5. Modeling of stresses and electric fields in piezoelectric multilayer: Application to multi quantum wells

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dhaneshwar Mishra

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Exact closed-form expressions have been derived for the stresses and the electric fields induced in piezoelectric multilayers deposited on a substrate with lattice misfit and thermal expansion coefficient mismatch. The derived formulations can model any number of layers using recursive relations that minimize the computation time. A proper rotation matrix has been utilized to generalize the expressions so that they can be used for various growth orientations with each layer having hexagonal crystal symmetry. As an example, the influence of lattice misfit and thermal expansion coefficient mismatch on the state of electroelastic fields in different layers of GaN multi quantum wells has been examined. A comparison with the finite element analysis results showed very close agreement. The analytical expressions developed herein will be useful in designing optoelectronic devices as well as in predicting defect density in multi quantum wells.

  6. Heat exchange modeling in a multilayered karst aquifer affected by seawater intrusion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luca Vettorello

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available A Feflow thermohaline model has been implemented in order to study borehole heat exchangers (BHEs activity in a coastal aquifer in the South of Italy (Province of Lecce, Puglia Region. The modeled closed-loop system consists of two double u-pipe heat exchangers, installed in 200 meters deep boreholes. The main purpose of numerical modeling was to forecast thermal plume extension in groundwater after a long period of heat exchange, calculating temperature trends in observation points during a 10 years transport simulation. The complex geological structure, including calcarenites, fractured limestones and a deep karst aquifer, has been translated into a multilayered model, with a depth-related parameter distribution, assigning different values of hydraulic, thermal and chemical properties to each layer. In particular saltwater concentration has been taken into account, considering the influence of seawater intrusion on the heat transport density-dependent model. Parameters assignment was based on experimental datasets collected during initial field investigations, including thermal characterization of soil samples and GRTs, together with historical hydrogeological and hydrochemical measures and previous groundwater surveys. After model structure configuration and aquifers parameterization, a sensitivity analysis on porosity and heat dispersivity has been conducted, to evaluate their influence on thermal transport phenomena with a multiple scenarios approach, considering in particular the uncertainty related to secondary porosity in karst systems. Feflow simulation represented the first step in environmental compatibility evaluation for the BHE plant, waiting for the necessary model calibration with groundwater temperature monitoring trends.

  7. River flow simulation using a multilayer perceptron-firefly algorithm model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Darbandi, Sabereh; Pourhosseini, Fatemeh Akhoni

    2018-06-01

    River flow estimation using records of past time series is importance in water resources engineering and management and is required in hydrologic studies. In the past two decades, the approaches based on the artificial neural networks (ANN) were developed. River flow modeling is a non-linear process and highly affected by the inputs to the modeling. In this study, the best input combination of the models was identified using the Gamma test then MLP-ANN and hybrid multilayer perceptron (MLP-FFA) is used to forecast monthly river flow for a set of time intervals using observed data. The measurements from three gauge at Ajichay watershed, East Azerbaijani, were used to train and test the models approach for the period from January 2004 to July 2016. Calibration and validation were performed within the same period for MLP-ANN and MLP-FFA models after the preparation of the required data. Statistics, the root mean square error and determination coefficient, are used to verify outputs from MLP-ANN to MLP-FFA models. The results show that MLP-FFA model is satisfactory for monthly river flow simulation in study area.

  8. Integrated modelling of ecosystem services and energy systems research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agarwala, Matthew; Lovett, Andrew; Bateman, Ian; Day, Brett; Agnolucci, Paolo; Ziv, Guy

    2016-04-01

    The UK Government is formally committed to reducing carbon emissions and protecting and improving natural capital and the environment. However, actually delivering on these objectives requires an integrated approach to addressing two parallel challenges: de-carbonising future energy system pathways; and safeguarding natural capital to ensure the continued flow of ecosystem services. Although both emphasise benefiting from natural resources, efforts to connect natural capital and energy systems research have been limited, meaning opportunities to improve management of natural resources and meet society's energy needs could be missed. The ecosystem services paradigm provides a consistent conceptual framework that applies in multiple disciplines across the natural and economic sciences, and facilitates collaboration between them. At the forefront of the field, integrated ecosystem service - economy models have guided public- and private-sector decision making at all levels. Models vary in sophistication from simple spreadsheet tools to complex software packages integrating biophysical, GIS and economic models and draw upon many fields, including ecology, hydrology, geography, systems theory, economics and the social sciences. They also differ in their ability to value changes in natural capital and ecosystem services at various spatial and temporal scales. Despite these differences, current models share a common feature: their treatment of energy systems is superficial at best. In contrast, energy systems research has no widely adopted, unifying conceptual framework that organises thinking about key system components and interactions. Instead, the literature is organised around modelling approaches, including life cycle analyses, econometric investigations, linear programming and computable general equilibrium models. However, some consistencies do emerge. First, often contain a linear set of steps, from exploration to resource supply, fuel processing, conversion

  9. Trophic dynamics of a simple model ecosystem.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bell, Graham; Fortier-Dubois, Étienne

    2017-09-13

    We have constructed a model of community dynamics that is simple enough to enumerate all possible food webs, yet complex enough to represent a wide range of ecological processes. We use the transition matrix to predict the outcome of succession and then investigate how the transition probabilities are governed by resource supply and immigration. Low-input regimes lead to simple communities whereas trophically complex communities develop when there is an adequate supply of both resources and immigrants. Our interpretation of trophic dynamics in complex communities hinges on a new principle of mutual replenishment, defined as the reciprocal alternation of state in a pair of communities linked by the invasion and extinction of a shared species. Such neutral couples are the outcome of succession under local dispersal and imply that food webs will often be made up of suites of trophically equivalent species. When immigrants arrive from an external pool of fixed composition a similar principle predicts a dynamic core of webs constituting a neutral interchange network, although communities may express an extensive range of other webs whose membership is only in part predictable. The food web is not in general predictable from whole-community properties such as productivity or stability, although it may profoundly influence these properties. © 2017 The Author(s).

  10. Puget Sound ocean acidification model outputs - Modeling the impacts of ocean acidification on ecosystems and populations

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NWFSC OA team will model the effects of ocean acidification on regional marine species and ecosystems using food web models, life-cycle models, and bioenvelope...

  11. Making eco logic and models work : An integrative approach to lake ecosystem modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kuiper, Jan Jurjen

    2016-01-01

    Dynamical ecosystem models are important tools that can help ecologists understand complex systems, and turn understanding into predictions of how these systems respond to external changes. This thesis revolves around PCLake, an integrated ecosystem model of shallow lakes that is used by both

  12. Hybrid diffusion and two-flux approximation for multilayered tissue light propagation modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yudovsky, Dmitry; Durkin, Anthony J.

    2011-07-01

    Accurate and rapid estimation of fluence, reflectance, and absorbance in multilayered biological media has been essential in many biophotonics applications that aim to diagnose, cure, or model in vivo tissue. The radiative transfer equation (RTE) rigorously models light transfer in absorbing and scattering media. However, analytical solutions to the RTE are limited even in simple homogeneous or plane media. Monte Carlo simulation has been used extensively to solve the RTE. However, Monte Carlo simulation is computationally intensive and may not be practical for applications that demand real-time results. Instead, the diffusion approximation has been shown to provide accurate estimates of light transport in strongly scattering tissue. The diffusion approximation is a greatly simplified model and produces analytical solutions for the reflectance and absorbance in tissue. However, the diffusion approximation breaks down if tissue is strongly absorbing, which is common in the visible part of the spectrum or in applications that involve darkly pigmented skin and/or high local volumes of blood such as port-wine stain therapy or reconstructive flap monitoring. In these cases, a model of light transfer that can accommodate both strongly and weakly absorbing regimes is required. Here we present a model of light transfer through layered biological media that represents skin with two strongly scattering and one strongly absorbing layer.

  13. On correction of model of stabilization of distribution of concentration of radiation defects in a multilayer structure with account experiment data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pankratov, E. L.

    2018-05-01

    We introduce a model of redistribution of point radiation defects, their interaction between themselves and redistribution of their simplest complexes (divacancies and diinterstitials) in a multilayer structure. The model gives a possibility to describe qualitatively nonmonotonicity of distributions of concentrations of radiation defects on interfaces between layers of the multilayer structure. The nonmonotonicity was recently found experimentally. To take into account the nonmonotonicity we modify recently used in literature model for analysis of distribution of concentration of radiation defects. To analyze the model we used an approach of solution of boundary problems, which could be used without crosslinking of solutions on interfaces between layers of the considered multilayer structures.

  14. The ORC method. Effective modelling of thermal performance of multilayer building components

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Akander, Jan

    2000-02-01

    The ORC Method (Optimised RC-networks) provides a means of modelling one- or multidimensional heat transfer in building components, in this context within building simulation environments. The methodology is shown, primarily applied to heat transfer in multilayer building components. For multilayer building components, the analytical thermal performance is known, given layer thickness and material properties. The aim of the ORC Method is to optimise the values of the thermal resistances and heat capacities of an RC-model such as to give model performance a good agreement with the analytical performance, for a wide range of frequencies. The optimisation procedure is made in the frequency domain, where the over-all deviation between model and analytical frequency response, in terms of admittance and dynamic transmittance, is minimised. It is shown that ORC's are effective in terms of accuracy and computational time in comparison to finite difference models when used in building simulations, in this case with IDA/ICE. An ORC configuration of five mass nodes has been found to model building components in Nordic countries well, within the application of thermal comfort and energy requirement simulations. Simple RC-networks, such as the surface heat capacity and the simple R-C-configuration are not appropriate for detailed building simulation. However, these can be used as basis for defining the effective heat capacity of a building component. An approximate method is suggested on how to determine the effective heat capacity without the use of complex numbers. This entity can be calculated on basis of layer thickness and material properties with the help of two time constants. The approximate method can give inaccuracies corresponding to 20%. In-situ measurements have been carried out in an experimental building with the purpose of establishing the effective heat capacity of external building components that are subjected to normal thermal conditions. The auxiliary

  15. Habitat connectivity and ecosystem productivity: implications from a simple model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cloern, James E

    2007-01-01

    The import of resources (food, nutrients) sustains biological production and food webs in resource-limited habitats. Resource export from donor habitats subsidizes production in recipient habitats, but the ecosystem-scale consequences of resource translocation are generally unknown. Here, I use a nutrient-phytoplankton-zooplankton model to show how dispersive connectivity between a shallow autotrophic habitat and a deep heterotrophic pelagic habitat can amplify overall system production in metazoan food webs. This result derives from the finite capacity of suspension feeders to capture and assimilate food particles: excess primary production in closed autotrophic habitats cannot be assimilated by consumers; however, if excess phytoplankton production is exported to food-limited heterotrophic habitats, it can be assimilated by zooplankton to support additional secondary production. Transport of regenerated nutrients from heterotrophic to autotrophic habitats sustains higher system primary production. These simulation results imply that the ecosystem-scale efficiency of nutrient transformation into metazoan biomass can be constrained by the rate of resource exchange across habitats and that it is optimized when the transport rate matches the growth rate of primary producers. Slower transport (i.e., reduced connectivity) leads to nutrient limitation of primary production in autotrophic habitats and food limitation of secondary production in heterotrophic habitats. Habitat fragmentation can therefore impose energetic constraints on the carrying capacity of aquatic ecosystems. The outcomes of ecosystem restoration through habitat creation will be determined by both functions provided by newly created aquatic habitats and the rates of hydraulic connectivity between them.

  16. Measuring and Modeling the U.S. Regulatory Ecosystem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bommarito, Michael J., II; Katz, Daniel Martin

    2017-09-01

    Over the last 23 years, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has required over 34,000 companies to file over 165,000 annual reports. These reports, the so-called "Form 10-Ks," contain a characterization of a company's financial performance and its risks, including the regulatory environment in which a company operates. In this paper, we analyze over 4.5 million references to U.S. Federal Acts and Agencies contained within these reports to measure the regulatory ecosystem, in which companies are organisms inhabiting a regulatory environment. While individuals across the political, economic, and academic world frequently refer to trends in this regulatory ecosystem, far less attention has been paid to supporting such claims with large-scale, longitudinal data. In this paper, in addition to positing a model of regulatory ecosystems, we document an increase in the regulatory energy per filing, i.e., a warming "temperature." We also find that the diversity of the regulatory ecosystem has been increasing over the past two decades. These findings support the claim that regulatory activity and complexity are increasing, and this framework contributes an important step towards improving academic and policy discussions around legal complexity and regulation.

  17. A mixture model for robust point matching under multi-layer motion.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiayi Ma

    Full Text Available This paper proposes an efficient mixture model for establishing robust point correspondences between two sets of points under multi-layer motion. Our algorithm starts by creating a set of putative correspondences which can contain a number of false correspondences, or outliers, in addition to the true correspondences (inliers. Next we solve for correspondence by interpolating a set of spatial transformations on the putative correspondence set based on a mixture model, which involves estimating a consensus of inlier points whose matching follows a non-parametric geometrical constraint. We formulate this as a maximum a posteriori (MAP estimation of a Bayesian model with hidden/latent variables indicating whether matches in the putative set are outliers or inliers. We impose non-parametric geometrical constraints on the correspondence, as a prior distribution, in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS. MAP estimation is performed by the EM algorithm which by also estimating the variance of the prior model (initialized to a large value is able to obtain good estimates very quickly (e.g., avoiding many of the local minima inherent in this formulation. We further provide a fast implementation based on sparse approximation which can achieve a significant speed-up without much performance degradation. We illustrate the proposed method on 2D and 3D real images for sparse feature correspondence, as well as a public available dataset for shape matching. The quantitative results demonstrate that our method is robust to non-rigid deformation and multi-layer/large discontinuous motion.

  18. Denitrification and Ecosystem Services: Mapping and Modeling Conservation Effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morris, C. K.; Walter, T.

    2012-12-01

    Precision conservation is the latest effort to increase higher efficiency in agricultural best management practices by considering the spatial and temporal variability in agroecosystems. The authors have developed a framework for incorporating the ecosystem service of denitrification into an existing precision conservation mapping tool. The model identifies areas of denitirification and quantifies potential denitrification when a conservation practice is adopted. The methodology is being tested in a small subwatershed in the Upper Susquehanna Basin of New York State.

  19. Modeling of Interface and Internal Disorder Applied to XRD Analysis of Ag-Based Nano-Multilayers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ariosa, Daniel; Cancellieri, Claudia; Araullo-Peters, Vicente; Chiodi, Mirco; Klyatskina, Elizaveta; Janczak-Rusch, Jolanta; Jeurgens, Lars P H

    2018-06-07

    Multilayered structures are a promising route to tailor electronic, magnetic, optical, and/or mechanical properties and durability of functional materials. Sputter deposition at room temperature, being an out-of-equilibrium process, introduces structural defects and confers to these nanosystems an intrinsic thermodynamical instability. As-deposited materials exhibit a large amount of internal atomic displacements within each constituent block as well as severe interface roughness between different layers. To access and characterize the internal multilayer disorder and its thermal evolution, X-ray diffraction investigation and analysis are performed systematically at differently grown Ag-Ge/aluminum nitride (AlN) multilayers (co-deposited, sequentially deposited with and without radio frequency (RF) bias) samples and after high-temperature annealing treatment. We report here on model calculations based on a kinematic formalism describing the displacement disorder both within the multilayer blocks and at the interfaces to reproduce the experimental X-ray diffraction intensities. Mixing and displacements at the interface are found to be considerably reduced after thermal treatment for co- and sequentially deposited Ag-Ge/AlN samples. The application of a RF bias during the deposition causes the highest interface mixing and introduces random intercalates in the AlN layers. X-ray analysis is contrasted to transmission electron microscopy pictures to validate the approach.

  20. Outdoor model simulating a Baltic Sea littoral ecosystem

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Notini, M; Nagell, B; Hagstroem, A; Grahn, O

    1977-01-01

    Plastic pools (surface 6.6 m/sup 2/, volume 4.2 m/sup 3/) were equipped with a flow-through system providing 2.51 min/sup -1/. Except for fish predators the main components of the flora and fauna of the Baltic littoral zone were introduced into the pools to form a model of the ecosystem. During 8 weeks the macroscopic epifauna and infauna of the bladder wrack Fucus vesiculosus L. were found to be qualitatively and quantitatively fairly stable, and the number of aerobic heterotrophic bacteria showed little variation. Oxygen concentration, temperature and pH were recorded and compared with values measured in the littoral zone. The results indicate good agreement between the characters of the model system and of the natural littoral ecosystem. This together with the observed stability and the possibilities for controlling and measuring the conditions in the system makes us believe that the model is a valuable tool for assessing toxic effects on the littoral ecosystem.

  1. Environmental fate of rice paddy pesticides in a model ecosystem.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tomizawa, C; Kazano, H

    1979-01-01

    The distribution and metabolic fate of several rice paddy pesticides were evaluated in a modified model ecosystem. Among the three BHC isomers, beta-isomer was the most stable and bioconcentrated in all of the organisms. Alpha- and gamma-isomers were moderately persistent and degraded to some extent during the 33 day period. Disulfoton was relatively persistent due to the transformation to its oxidation products. Pyridaphenthion was fairly biodegradable. N-Phenyl maleic hydrazide derived from the hydrolysis of pyridaphenthion was not detected in the organisms though it was found in the aquarium water after 33 days. Cartap and edifenphos were considerably biodegradable, and the ratio of the conversion to water soluble metabolites was very high. There was a distinct difference in the persistence of Kitazin P and edifenphos in the aquarium water. It appeared that the hydrolysis rate of the pesticides affected their fate in the organisms. PCP appeared to be moderately biodegradable. CNP was considerably stable and stored in the organisms though the concentration in the aquarium water was relatively low. The persistence and distribution of the pesticides in the model ecosystem were dependent on their chemical structures. In spite of the limitation derived from short experimental period, the model ecosystem may be applicable for predicting the environmental fate of pesticides.

  2. Stochastic models for predicting environmental impact in aquatic ecosystems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stewart-Oaten, A.

    1986-01-01

    The purpose of stochastic predictions are discussed in relation to the environmental impacts of nuclear power plants on aquatic ecosystems. One purpose is to aid in making rational decisions about whether a power plant should be built, where, and how it should be designed. The other purpose is to check on the models themselves in the light of what eventually happens. The author discusses the role or statistical decision theory in the decision-making problem. Various types of stochastic models and their problems are presented. In addition some suggestions are made for generating usable stochastic models, and checking and improving on them. 12 references

  3. Multilayer four-flux model for the optical degradation of thermal control coatings in space

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tonon, C.; Rozé, C.; Girasole, T.; Duvignacq, Carole

    2017-11-01

    The aim of this paper is to generalize the four-flux radiative transfer model to the case of a multilayer medium. An application is presented with the study of the optical degradation of a white paint in simulated space environment. This paint is constituted of a mixing a zinc oxide and a silicone resin. A sample was irradiated with 45 keV protons and reflectance measurements were achieved in situ after each step of irradiation in order to see the evolution of the thermo-optical properties of the coating. These tests were completed after irradiation by Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM) in order to characterize the structure of the material and to detect possible structural changes due to the irradiation. This experimental investigation allowed us to define hypothesis to be introduced in the model. In particular, we assume that the optical degradation centered on 410 nm is due to a variation a-/+ of the imaginary part of the refractive index of zinc oxide in the damaged layer. The generalized four-flux model was validated by comparing numerical calculation with experiment.

  4. A Multilayer Hidden Markov Models-Based Method for Human-Robot Interaction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chongben Tao

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available To achieve Human-Robot Interaction (HRI by using gestures, a continuous gesture recognition approach based on Multilayer Hidden Markov Models (MHMMs is proposed, which consists of two parts. One part is gesture spotting and segment module, the other part is continuous gesture recognition module. Firstly, a Kinect sensor is used to capture 3D acceleration and 3D angular velocity data of hand gestures. And then, a Feed-forward Neural Networks (FNNs and a threshold criterion are used for gesture spotting and segment, respectively. Afterwards, the segmented gesture signals are respectively preprocessed and vector symbolized by a sliding window and a K-means clustering method. Finally, symbolized data are sent into Lower Hidden Markov Models (LHMMs to identify individual gestures, and then, a Bayesian filter with sequential constraints among gestures in Upper Hidden Markov Models (UHMMs is used to correct recognition errors created in LHMMs. Five predefined gestures are used to interact with a Kinect mobile robot in experiments. The experimental results show that the proposed method not only has good effectiveness and accuracy, but also has favorable real-time performance.

  5. Can models help to forecast rainwater dynamics for rainfed ecosystem?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mukhtar Ahmed

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Simulation models are important tools to explore and illustrate dynamics of climatic variables in crop based ecosystem. In the rainfed ecosystem (RE, wheat production is impinged on certain climatic events per se high variability in rainfall and increased temperature. These climatic events turn out due to climatic drivers like Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs and pressure. Current study is aimed to analyze long term rainfall data (1961–2011 of Pakistan׳s rainfed ecosystem zone (Islamabad, Chakwal and Talagang by using Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM and R model. The principal objective of this analysis was to study the link between SOI phases and SSTs; and thereby understanding the pattern of climate change due to these climatic drivers under rainfed conditions in Pakistan. The results revealed a positive link between July SOI phases and the rainfall variability during October–November (the sowing time of wheat in Pakistan. Long term rainfall data analysis (1961–2011 of Islamabad, Chakwal and Talagang revealed 44%, 40%, 35% possibility of exceeding median rainfall near zero whereas probability of consistently negative SOI phases were 35%, 34% and 33% respectively during July. Similarly, the forecasting results estimated by R using covariates like dry spell, NINO1.2, NINO3, NINO4, NINO3.4 and IOD of different months revealed that prediction of monsoon, wheat early growth, wheat grain filling period and total wheat growing season rainfall, have significant signals with climatic drivers. The study justified the importance of models in the decision making processes and rainfall forecasting as a beneficial and necessary tool for rainfed ecosystem conservation.

  6. Using models in Integrated Ecosystem Assessment of coastal areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solidoro, Cosimo; Bandelj, Vinko; Cossarini, Gianpiero; Melaku Canu, Donata; Libralato, Simone

    2014-05-01

    Numerical Models can greatly contribute to integrated ecological assessment of coastal and marine systems. Indeed, models can: i) assist in the identification of efficient sampling strategy; ii) provide space interpolation and time extrapolation of experiemtanl data which are based on the knowedge on processes dynamics and causal realtionships which is coded within the model, iii) provide estimates of hardly measurable indicators. Furthermore model can provide indication on potential effects of implementation of alternative management policies. Finally, by providing a synthetic representation of an ideal system, based on its essential dynamic, model return a picture of ideal behaviour of a system in the absence of external perturbation, alteration, noise, which might help in the identification of reference behaivuor. As an important example, model based reanalyses of biogeochemical and ecological properties are an urgent need for the estimate of the environmental status and the assessment of efficacy of conservation and environmental policies, also with reference to the enforcement of the European MSFD. However, the use of numerical models, and particularly of ecological models, in modeling and in environmental management still is far from be the rule, possibly because of a lack in realizing the benefits which a full integration of modeling and montoring systems might provide, possibly because of a lack of trust in modeling results, or because many problems still exists in the development, validation and implementation of models. For istance, assessing the validity of model results is a complex process that requires the definition of appropriate indicators, metrics, methodologies and faces with the scarcity of real-time in-situ biogeochemical data. Furthermore, biogeochemical models typically consider dozens of variables which are heavily undersampled. Here we show how the integration of mathematical model and monitoring data can support integrated ecosystem

  7. Statistical Modeling of Radiative Transfer and Transient Characteristics for Multilayer Biological Tissue

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Yu. Makarov

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The Monte-Carlo method [1] already long ago proved itself as a powerful and universal tool for mathematical modelling in various areas of science and engineering. Researchers often choose this method when it is difficult to find a solution by other ways (or impossible at all, e.g. because of sophisticated analytical dependences, area of modelling or boundary conditions. Certainly, this necessarily statistical and flexible method requires significant computation time, but a continuously increasing computation capability makes it more and more attractive for a choice in specific situation.One of the promising areas to use the method of statistical modelling is description of light propagation in the turbid (scattering media. A high motivation for development of this approach is widely used lasers in biomedicine [3]. Besides, owing to its flexibility, the Monte-Carlo method is also of importance in theoretical researches, in particular, to estimate a degree of adequacy of the offered approximation methods for solving a radiative transfer equation [4].It is known that key parameters of turbid media are an absorption coefficient (characterizes absorption probability of a photon per unit of path length and a scattering coefficient (characterizes scattering probability of a photon per unit of path length. The ratio of each of the coefficients to their sum (extinction defines a probability of "death" or "survival" of a photon, respectively, in interaction with lenses. Generally, in the scattering medium there is a non-coherent radiation component, which in turbid media such as biological tissues, already at the insignificant depth becomes prevailing over the coherent one (residual of the incident laser beam [5].The author used the Monte-Carlo method to simulate optical radiation propagation in the multilayer biological tissues with their optical characteristics corresponding to the skin and subcutaneous tissues. Such a biological tissue is the absorbing

  8. Analytical modeling of multi-layered printed circuit board using multi-stacked via clusters as component heat spreader

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Monier-Vinard Eric

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In order to help the electronic designer to early determine the limits of the power dissipation of electronic component, an analytical model was established to allow a fast insight of relevant design parameters of a multi-layered electronic board constitution. The proposed steady-state approach based on Fourier series method promotes a practical solution to quickly investigate the potential gain of multi-layered thermal via clusters. Generally, it has been shown a good agreement between the results obtained by the proposed analytical model and those given by electronics cooling software widely used in industry. Some results highlight the fact that the conventional practices for Printed Circuit Board modeling can be dramatically underestimate source temperatures, in particular with smaller sources. Moreover, the analytic solution could be applied to optimize the heat spreading in the board structure with a local modification of the effective thermal conductivity layers.

  9. Multilayer airdrome pavement modeling on the base of numeically-analythical method of potential

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    О.М. Шевченко

    2004-04-01

    Full Text Available  There are problems of the take into account the multilayered foundation distributive properties which are ignored in the elementary case of Winkler foundation at calculation of constructions on the elastic foundation. In article the apparatus realization of numerically-analytical method of potential for a problem about stress and strain state analysis is considered for the multilayered pavement consisting from two isotropic layers with a separating layer between.

  10. Spectroscopic investigation of the wettability of multilayer graphene using highly ordered pyrolytic graphite as a model material.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ashraf, Ali; Wu, Yanbin; Wang, Michael C; Aluru, Narayana R; Dastgheib, Seyed A; Nam, SungWoo

    2014-11-04

    We report the intrinsic water contact angle (WCA) of multilayer graphene, explore different methods of cleaning multilayer graphene, and evaluate the efficiency of those methods on the basis of spectroscopic analysis. Highly ordered pyrolytic graphite (HOPG) was used as a model material system to study the wettability of the multilayer graphene surface by WCA measurements. A WCA value of 45° ± 3° was measured for a clean HOPG surface, which can serve as the intrinsic WCA for multilayer graphene. A 1 min plasma treatment (100 W) decreased the WCA to 6°, owing to the creation of surface defects and functionalization by oxygen-containing groups. Molecular dynamics simulations of water droplets on the HOPG surface with or without the oxygen-containing defect sites confirmed the experimental results. Heat treatment at near atmospheric pressure and wet chemical cleaning methods using hydrofluoric acid and chloroform did not change the WCA significantly. Low-pressure, high-temperature annealing under argon and hydrogen reduced the WCA to 54°, close to the intrinsic WCA of HOPG. Raman spectroscopy and atomic force microscopy did not show any significant change for the HOPG surface after this treatment, confirming low-pressure, high-temperature annealing as an effective technique to clean multilayer graphene without damaging the surface. Time-of-flight secondary ion mass spectrometry indicated the existence of hydrocarbon species on the surface of the HOPG sample that was exposed to air for <5 min and the absence of these impurities in the bulk. X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy analyses of the sample surfaces after the different cleaning techniques were performed to correlate the WCA to the surface chemistry. X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy results revealed that the WCA value changed drastically, depending on the amounts of oxygen-containing and hydrocarbon-containing groups on the surface.

  11. Examining the impact of multi-layer graphene using cellular and amphibian models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Muzi, Laura; Russier, Julie; Ménard-Moyon, Cécilia; Bianco, Alberto; Mouchet, Florence; Cadarsi, Stéphanie; Pinelli, Eric; Gauthier, Laury; Janowska, Izabela; Risuleo, Gianfranco; Soula, Brigitte; Galibert, Anne-Marie; Flahaut, Emmanuel

    2016-01-01

    In the last few years, graphene has been defined as the revolutionary material showing an incredible expansion in industrial applications. Different graphene forms have been applied in several contexts, spreading from energy technologies and electronics to food and agriculture technologies. Graphene showed promises also in the biomedical field. Hopeful results have been already obtained in diagnostic, drug delivery, tissue regeneration and photothermal cancer ablation. In view of the enormous development of graphene-based technologies, a careful assessment of its impact on health and environment is demanded. It is evident how investigating the graphene toxicity is of fundamental importance in the context of medical purposes. On the other hand, the nanomaterial present in the environment, likely to be generated all along the industrial life-cycle, may have harmful effects on living organisms. In the present work, an important contribution on the impact of multi-layer graphene (MLG) on health and environment is given by using a multifaceted approach. For the first purpose, the effect of the material on two mammalian cell models was assessed. Key cytotoxicity parameters were considered such as cell viability and inflammatory response induction. This was combined with an evaluation of MLG toxicity towards Xenopus laevis, used as both in vivo and environmental model organism. (paper)

  12. Modelling C₃ photosynthesis from the chloroplast to the ecosystem.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bernacchi, Carl J; Bagley, Justin E; Serbin, Shawn P; Ruiz-Vera, Ursula M; Rosenthal, David M; Vanloocke, Andy

    2013-09-01

    Globally, photosynthesis accounts for the largest flux of CO₂ from the atmosphere into ecosystems and is the driving process for terrestrial ecosystem function. The importance of accurate predictions of photosynthesis over a range of plant growth conditions led to the development of a C₃ photosynthesis model by Farquhar, von Caemmerer & Berry that has become increasingly important as society places greater pressures on vegetation. The photosynthesis model has played a major role in defining the path towards scientific understanding of photosynthetic carbon uptake and the role of photosynthesis on regulating the earth's climate and biogeochemical systems. In this review, we summarize the photosynthesis model, including its continued development and applications. We also review the implications these developments have on quantifying photosynthesis at a wide range of spatial and temporal scales, and discuss the model's role in determining photosynthetic responses to changes in environmental conditions. Finally, the review includes a discussion of the larger-scale modelling and remote-sensing applications that rely on the leaf photosynthesis model and are likely to open new scientific avenues to address the increasing challenges to plant productivity over the next century. Published 2013. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

  13. A methodology for ecosystem-scale modeling of selenium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Presser, T.S.; Luoma, S.N.

    2010-01-01

    The main route of exposure for selenium (Se) is dietary, yet regulations lack biologically based protocols for evaluations of risk. We propose here an ecosystem-scale model that conceptualizes and quantifies the variables that determinehow Se is processed from water through diet to predators. This approach uses biogeochemical and physiological factors from laboratory and field studies and considers loading, speciation, transformation to particulate material, bioavailability, bioaccumulation in invertebrates, and trophic transfer to predators. Validation of the model is through data sets from 29 historic and recent field case studies of Se-exposed sites. The model links Se concentrations across media (water, particulate, tissue of different food web species). It can be used to forecast toxicity under different management or regulatory proposals or as a methodology for translating a fish-tissue (or other predator tissue) Se concentration guideline to a dissolved Se concentration. The model illustrates some critical aspects of implementing a tissue criterion: 1) the choice of fish species determines the food web through which Se should be modeled, 2) the choice of food web is critical because the particulate material to prey kinetics of bioaccumulation differs widely among invertebrates, 3) the characterization of the type and phase of particulate material is important to quantifying Se exposure to prey through the base of the food web, and 4) the metric describing partitioning between particulate material and dissolved Se concentrations allows determination of a site-specific dissolved Se concentration that would be responsible for that fish body burden in the specific environment. The linked approach illustrates that environmentally safe dissolved Se concentrations will differ among ecosystems depending on the ecological pathways and biogeochemical conditions in that system. Uncertainties and model sensitivities can be directly illustrated by varying exposure

  14. Acoustical characteristic predictions of a multi-layer system of a submerged vehicle hull mounted sonar simplified to an infinite planar model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sung-Hee Kim

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Hull Mounted Sonar (HMS is a long range submerged vehicle's hull-mounted passive sonar system which detects low-frequency noise caused by machineries of enemy ships or submerged vehicles. The HMS needs a sound absorption /insulation multi-layer structure to shut out the self-noise from own machineries and to amplify signals from outside. Therefore, acoustic analysis of the multi-layer system should be performed when the HMS is designed. This paper simplified the HMS multi-layer system to be an infinite planar multi-layer model. Also, main excitations that influence the HMS were classified into mechanical, plane wave and turbulent flow excitation, and the investigations for each excitation were performed for various models. Stiffened multi-layer analysis for mechanical excitation and general multi-layer analysis for turbulent flow excitation were developed. The infinite planar multi-layer analysis was expected to be more useful for preliminary design stage of HMS system than the infinite cylindrical model because of short analysis time and easiness of parameter study.

  15. CLASSICAL AREAS OF PHENOMENOLOGY: First-principles calculations for the elastic properties of Ni-base model superalloys: Ni/Ni3Al multilayers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yun-Jiang; Wang, Chong-Yu

    2009-10-01

    A model system consisting of Ni[001](100)/Ni3Al[001](100) multi-layers are studied using the density functional theory in order to explore the elastic properties of single crystal Ni-based superalloys. Simulation results are consistent with the experimental observation that rafted Ni-base superalloys virtually possess a cubic symmetry. The convergence of the elastic properties with respect to the thickness of the multilayers are tested by a series of multilayers from 2γ'+2γ to 10γ'+10γ atomic layers. The elastic properties are found to vary little with the increase of the multilayer's thickness. A Ni/Ni3Al multilayer with 10γ'+10γ atomic layers (3.54 nm) can be used to simulate the mechanical properties of Ni-base model superalloys. Our calculated elastic constants, bulk modulus, orientation-dependent shear modulus and Young's modulus, as well as the Zener anisotropy factor are all compatible with the measured results of Ni-base model superalloys R1 and the advanced commercial superalloys TMS-26, CMSX-4 at a low temperature. The mechanical properties as a function of the γ' phase volume fraction are calculated by varying the proportion of the γ and γ' phase in the multilayers. Besides, the mechanical properties of two-phase Ni/Ni3Al multilayer can be well predicted by the Voigt-Reuss-Hill rule of mixtures.

  16. Small diversity effects on ocean primary production under environmental change in a diversity-resolving ocean ecosystem model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Prowe, Friederike; Pahlow, M.; Dutkiewicz, S.

    2013-01-01

    Marine ecosystem models used to investigate how global change affects ocean ecosystems and their functioning typically omit pelagic diversity. Diversity, however, can affect functions such as primary production and their sensitivity to environmental changes. Using a global ocean ecosystem model...... the diversity effects on ecosystem functioning captured in ocean ecosystem models....

  17. A diffusion-limited reaction model for self-propagating Al/Pt multilayers with quench limits

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kittell, D. E.; Yarrington, C. D.; Hobbs, M. L.; Abere, M. J.; Adams, D. P.

    2018-04-01

    A diffusion-limited reaction model was calibrated for Al/Pt multilayers ignited on oxidized silicon, sapphire, and tungsten substrates, as well as for some Al/Pt multilayers ignited as free-standing foils. The model was implemented in a finite element analysis code and used to match experimental burn front velocity data collected from several years of testing at Sandia National Laboratories. Moreover, both the simulations and experiments reveal well-defined quench limits in the total Al + Pt layer (i.e., bilayer) thickness. At these limits, the heat generated from atomic diffusion is insufficient to support a self-propagating wave front on top of the substrates. Quench limits for reactive multilayers are seldom reported and are found to depend on the thermal properties of the individual layers. Here, the diffusion-limited reaction model is generalized to allow for temperature- and composition-dependent material properties, phase change, and anisotropic thermal conductivity. Utilizing this increase in model fidelity, excellent overall agreement is shown between the simulations and experimental results with a single calibrated parameter set. However, the burn front velocities of Al/Pt multilayers ignited on tungsten substrates are over-predicted. Possible sources of error are discussed and a higher activation energy (from 41.9 kJ/mol.at. to 47.5 kJ/mol.at.) is shown to bring the simulations into agreement with the velocity data observed on tungsten substrates. This higher activation energy suggests an inhibited diffusion mechanism present at lower heating rates.

  18. Assimilation of satellite color observations in a coupled ocean GCM-ecosystem model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarmiento, Jorge L.

    1992-01-01

    Monthly average coastal zone color scanner (CZCS) estimates of chlorophyll concentration were assimilated into an ocean global circulation model(GCM) containing a simple model of the pelagic ecosystem. The assimilation was performed in the simplest possible manner, to allow the assessment of whether there were major problems with the ecosystem model or with the assimilation procedure. The current ecosystem model performed well in some regions, but failed in others to assimilate chlorophyll estimates without disrupting important ecosystem properties. This experiment gave insight into those properties of the ecosystem model that must be changed to allow data assimilation to be generally successful, while raising other important issues about the assimilation procedure.

  19. How important is diversity for capturing environmental-change responses in ecosystem models?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Prowe, Friederike; Pahlow, M.; Dutkiewicz, S.

    2014-01-01

    Marine ecosystem models used to investigate how global change affects ocean ecosystems and their functioning typically omit pelagic plankton diversity. Diversity, however, may affect functions such as primary production and their sensitivity to environmental changes. Here we use a global ocean...... ecosystem model that explicitly resolves phytoplankton diversity by defining subtypes within four phytoplankton functional types (PFTs). We investigate the model's ability to capture diversity effects on primary production under environmental change. An idealized scenario with a sudden reduction in vertical...... in the model, for example via trade-offs or different PFTs, thus determines the diversity effects on ecosystem functioning captured in ocean ecosystem models....

  20. The Generalised Ecosystem Modelling Approach in Radiological Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klos, Richard

    2008-03-01

    An independent modelling capability is required by SSI in order to evaluate dose assessments carried out in Sweden by, amongst others, SKB. The main focus is the evaluation of the long-term radiological safety of radioactive waste repositories for both spent fuel and low-level radioactive waste. To meet the requirement for an independent modelling tool for use in biosphere dose assessments, SSI through its modelling team CLIMB commissioned the development of a new model in 2004, a project to produce an integrated model of radionuclides in the landscape. The generalised ecosystem modelling approach (GEMA) is the result. GEMA is a modular system of compartments representing the surface environment. It can be configured, through water and solid material fluxes, to represent local details in the range of ecosystem types found in the past, present and future Swedish landscapes. The approach is generic but fine tuning can be carried out using local details of the surface drainage system. The modular nature of the modelling approach means that GEMA modules can be linked to represent large scale surface drainage features over an extended domain in the landscape. System change can also be managed in GEMA, allowing a flexible and comprehensive model of the evolving landscape to be constructed. Environmental concentrations of radionuclides can be calculated and the GEMA dose pathway model provides a means of evaluating the radiological impact of radionuclide release to the surface environment. This document sets out the philosophy and details of GEMA and illustrates the functioning of the model with a range of examples featuring the recent CLIMB review of SKB's SR-Can assessment

  1. The Generalised Ecosystem Modelling Approach in Radiological Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Klos, Richard

    2008-03-15

    An independent modelling capability is required by SSI in order to evaluate dose assessments carried out in Sweden by, amongst others, SKB. The main focus is the evaluation of the long-term radiological safety of radioactive waste repositories for both spent fuel and low-level radioactive waste. To meet the requirement for an independent modelling tool for use in biosphere dose assessments, SSI through its modelling team CLIMB commissioned the development of a new model in 2004, a project to produce an integrated model of radionuclides in the landscape. The generalised ecosystem modelling approach (GEMA) is the result. GEMA is a modular system of compartments representing the surface environment. It can be configured, through water and solid material fluxes, to represent local details in the range of ecosystem types found in the past, present and future Swedish landscapes. The approach is generic but fine tuning can be carried out using local details of the surface drainage system. The modular nature of the modelling approach means that GEMA modules can be linked to represent large scale surface drainage features over an extended domain in the landscape. System change can also be managed in GEMA, allowing a flexible and comprehensive model of the evolving landscape to be constructed. Environmental concentrations of radionuclides can be calculated and the GEMA dose pathway model provides a means of evaluating the radiological impact of radionuclide release to the surface environment. This document sets out the philosophy and details of GEMA and illustrates the functioning of the model with a range of examples featuring the recent CLIMB review of SKB's SR-Can assessment

  2. Support vector regression model for the estimation of γ-ray buildup factors for multi-layer shields

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Trontl, Kresimir; Smuc, Tomislav; Pevec, Dubravko

    2007-01-01

    The accuracy of the point-kernel method, which is a widely used practical tool for γ-ray shielding calculations, strongly depends on the quality and accuracy of buildup factors used in the calculations. Although, buildup factors for single-layer shields comprised of a single material are well known, calculation of buildup factors for stratified shields, each layer comprised of different material or a combination of materials, represent a complex physical problem. Recently, a new compact mathematical model for multi-layer shield buildup factor representation has been suggested for embedding into point-kernel codes thus replacing traditionally generated complex mathematical expressions. The new regression model is based on support vector machines learning technique, which is an extension of Statistical Learning Theory. The paper gives complete description of the novel methodology with results pertaining to realistic engineering multi-layer shielding geometries. The results based on support vector regression machine learning confirm that this approach provides a framework for general, accurate and computationally acceptable multi-layer buildup factor model

  3. Alternative ways of using field-based estimates to calibrate ecosystem models and their implications for ecosystem carbon cycle studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Y. He; Q. Zhuang; A.D. McGuire; Y. Liu; M. Chen

    2013-01-01

    Model-data fusion is a process in which field observations are used to constrain model parameters. How observations are used to constrain parameters has a direct impact on the carbon cycle dynamics simulated by ecosystem models. In this study, we present an evaluation of several options for the use of observations inmodeling regional carbon dynamics and explore the...

  4. Calibration of two complex ecosystem models with different likelihood functions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hidy, Dóra; Haszpra, László; Pintér, Krisztina; Nagy, Zoltán; Barcza, Zoltán

    2014-05-01

    The biosphere is a sensitive carbon reservoir. Terrestrial ecosystems were approximately carbon neutral during the past centuries, but they became net carbon sinks due to climate change induced environmental change and associated CO2 fertilization effect of the atmosphere. Model studies and measurements indicate that the biospheric carbon sink can saturate in the future due to ongoing climate change which can act as a positive feedback. Robustness of carbon cycle models is a key issue when trying to choose the appropriate model for decision support. The input parameters of the process-based models are decisive regarding the model output. At the same time there are several input parameters for which accurate values are hard to obtain directly from experiments or no local measurements are available. Due to the uncertainty associated with the unknown model parameters significant bias can be experienced if the model is used to simulate the carbon and nitrogen cycle components of different ecosystems. In order to improve model performance the unknown model parameters has to be estimated. We developed a multi-objective, two-step calibration method based on Bayesian approach in order to estimate the unknown parameters of PaSim and Biome-BGC models. Biome-BGC and PaSim are a widely used biogeochemical models that simulate the storage and flux of water, carbon, and nitrogen between the ecosystem and the atmosphere, and within the components of the terrestrial ecosystems (in this research the developed version of Biome-BGC is used which is referred as BBGC MuSo). Both models were calibrated regardless the simulated processes and type of model parameters. The calibration procedure is based on the comparison of measured data with simulated results via calculating a likelihood function (degree of goodness-of-fit between simulated and measured data). In our research different likelihood function formulations were used in order to examine the effect of the different model

  5. Extended Traffic Crash Modelling through Precision and Response Time Using Fuzzy Clustering Algorithms Compared with Multi-layer Perceptron

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iman Aghayan

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper compares two fuzzy clustering algorithms – fuzzy subtractive clustering and fuzzy C-means clustering – to a multi-layer perceptron neural network for their ability to predict the severity of crash injuries and to estimate the response time on the traffic crash data. Four clustering algorithms – hierarchical, K-means, subtractive clustering, and fuzzy C-means clustering – were used to obtain the optimum number of clusters based on the mean silhouette coefficient and R-value before applying the fuzzy clustering algorithms. The best-fit algorithms were selected according to two criteria: precision (root mean square, R-value, mean absolute errors, and sum of square error and response time (t. The highest R-value was obtained for the multi-layer perceptron (0.89, demonstrating that the multi-layer perceptron had a high precision in traffic crash prediction among the prediction models, and that it was stable even in the presence of outliers and overlapping data. Meanwhile, in comparison with other prediction models, fuzzy subtractive clustering provided the lowest value for response time (0.284 second, 9.28 times faster than the time of multi-layer perceptron, meaning that it could lead to developing an on-line system for processing data from detectors and/or a real-time traffic database. The model can be extended through improvements based on additional data through induction procedure.

  6. Model ecosystem approach to estimate community level effects of radiation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Masahiro, Doi; Nobuyuki, Tanaka; Shoichi, Fuma; Nobuyoshi, Ishii; Hiroshi, Takeda; Zenichiro, Kawabata [National Institute of Radiological Sciences, Environmental and Toxicological Sciences Research Group, Chiba (Japan)

    2004-07-01

    Mathematical computer model is developed to simulate the population dynamics and dynamic mass budgets of the microbial community realized as a self sustainable aquatic ecological system in the tube. Autotrophic algae, heterotrophic protozoa and sapro-trophic bacteria live symbiotically with inter-species' interactions as predator-prey relationship, competition for the common resource, autolysis of detritus and detritus-grazing food chain, etc. The simulation model is the individual-based parallel model, built in the demographic stochasticity, environmental stochasticity by dividing the aquatic environment into patches. Validity of the model is checked by the multifaceted data of the microcosm experiments. In the analysis, intrinsic parameters of umbrella endpoints (lethality, morbidity, reproductive growth, mutation) are manipulated at the individual level, and tried to find the population level, community level and ecosystem level disorders of ecologically crucial parameters (e.g. intrinsic growth rate, carrying capacity, variation, etc.) that related to the probability of population extinction. (author)

  7. Model ecosystem approach to estimate community level effects of radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Masahiro, Doi; Nobuyuki, Tanaka; Shoichi, Fuma; Nobuyoshi, Ishii; Hiroshi, Takeda; Zenichiro, Kawabata

    2004-01-01

    Mathematical computer model is developed to simulate the population dynamics and dynamic mass budgets of the microbial community realized as a self sustainable aquatic ecological system in the tube. Autotrophic algae, heterotrophic protozoa and sapro-trophic bacteria live symbiotically with inter-species' interactions as predator-prey relationship, competition for the common resource, autolysis of detritus and detritus-grazing food chain, etc. The simulation model is the individual-based parallel model, built in the demographic stochasticity, environmental stochasticity by dividing the aquatic environment into patches. Validity of the model is checked by the multifaceted data of the microcosm experiments. In the analysis, intrinsic parameters of umbrella endpoints (lethality, morbidity, reproductive growth, mutation) are manipulated at the individual level, and tried to find the population level, community level and ecosystem level disorders of ecologically crucial parameters (e.g. intrinsic growth rate, carrying capacity, variation, etc.) that related to the probability of population extinction. (author)

  8. Light Competition and Carbon Partitioning-Allocation in an improved Forest Ecosystem Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collalti, Alessio; Santini, Monia; Valentini Valentini, Riccardo

    2010-05-01

    In Italy about 100.000 km2 are covered by forests. This surface is the 30% of the whole national land and this shows how the forests are important both for socio-economic and for environmental aspects. Forests changes affect a delicate balance that involve not only vegetation components but also bio-geochemical cycles and global climate. The knowledge of the amount of Carbon sequestered by forests represents a precious information for their sustainable management in the framework of climate changes. Primary studies in terms of model about this important issue, has been done through Forest Ecosystem Model (FEM), well known and validated as 3PG (Landsberg et Waring, 1997; Sands 2004). It is based on light use efficiency approach at the canopy level. The present study started from the original model 3PG, producing an improved version that uses many of explicit formulations of all relevant ecophysiological processes but makes it able to be applied for natural forests. The mutual interaction of forest growth and light conditions causes vertical and horizontal differentiation in the natural forest mosaic. Only ecophysiological parameters which can be either directly measured or estimates with reasonable certainty are used. The model has been written in C language and has been created considering a tri-dimensional cell structure with different vertical layers depending on the forest type that has to be simulated. This 3PG 'improved' version enable to work on multi-layer and multi-species forests type with cell resolution of one hectare for the typical Italian forest species. The multi-layer version is the result of the implementation and development of Lambert-Beer law for the estimation of intercepted, absorbed and transmitted light through different storeys of the forest. It is possible estimates, for each storey, a Par value (Photosynthetic Active Radiation) through Leaf Area Index (LAI), Light Extinction Coefficient and cell Canopy Cover using a "Big Leaf" approach

  9. A descriptive ecosystem model - a strategy for model development during site investigations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Loefgren, Anders

    2003-09-01

    This report describes a strategy for the development of a site descriptive model for the surface ecosystem on the potential deep repository sites. The surface ecosystem embraces many disciplines, and these have to be identified, described and integrated in order to construct a descriptive ecosystem model that describes and quantifies biotic and abiotic patterns and processes of importance for the ecosystem on the site. The descriptive model includes both present day conditions and historical information. The descriptive ecosystem model will be used to supply input data for the safety assessment and to serve as the baseline model for devising a monitoring program to detect short-term disturbances caused first by the site investigations and later by the construction of the deep repository. Furthermore, it will serve as a reference for future comparisons to determine more long-term effects or changes caused by the deep repository. The report adopts a non-site-specific approach focusing on the following aims: 1. To present and define the properties that will constitute the descriptive ecosystem model. 2. To present a methodology for determining those properties. 3. To describe and develop the framework for the descriptive ecosystem model by integrating the different properties. 4. To present vital data from other site descriptive models such as those for geology or hydrogeology that interacts with and affects the descriptive ecosystem model. The properties are described under four different sections: general physical properties of the landscape, the terrestrial system, the limnic system and the marine system. These headings are further subdivided into entities that integrate properties in relation to processes

  10. A descriptive ecosystem model - a strategy for model development during site investigations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Loefgren, Anders [Stockholm Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of Botany; Lindborg, Tobias [Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co., Stockholm (Sweden)

    2003-09-01

    This report describes a strategy for the development of a site descriptive model for the surface ecosystem on the potential deep repository sites. The surface ecosystem embraces many disciplines, and these have to be identified, described and integrated in order to construct a descriptive ecosystem model that describes and quantifies biotic and abiotic patterns and processes of importance for the ecosystem on the site. The descriptive model includes both present day conditions and historical information. The descriptive ecosystem model will be used to supply input data for the safety assessment and to serve as the baseline model for devising a monitoring program to detect short-term disturbances caused first by the site investigations and later by the construction of the deep repository. Furthermore, it will serve as a reference for future comparisons to determine more long-term effects or changes caused by the deep repository. The report adopts a non-site-specific approach focusing on the following aims: 1. To present and define the properties that will constitute the descriptive ecosystem model. 2. To present a methodology for determining those properties. 3. To describe and develop the framework for the descriptive ecosystem model by integrating the different properties. 4. To present vital data from other site descriptive models such as those for geology or hydrogeology that interacts with and affects the descriptive ecosystem model. The properties are described under four different sections: general physical properties of the landscape, the terrestrial system, the limnic system and the marine system. These headings are further subdivided into entities that integrate properties in relation to processes.

  11. ECOSYSTEM SERVICES AND BEYOND: INTEGRATION OF ECOSYSTEM SCIENCE AND MULTIMEDIA EXPOSURE MODELING FOR ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION

    Science.gov (United States)

    Decision-making for ecosystem protection and resource management requires an integrative science and technology applied with a sufficiently comprehensive systems approach. Single media (e.g., air, soil and water) approaches that evaluate aspects of an ecosystem in a stressor-by-...

  12. Studies on 14C labelled chlorpyrifos in model marine ecosystem

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pandit, G.G.; Mohan Rao, A.M.; Kale, S.P.; Murthy, N.B.K.; Raghu, K.

    1997-01-01

    Chlorpyrifos is one of the widely used organophosphorus insecticides in tropical countries. Experiments were conducted with 14 C labelled chlorpyrifos to study the distribution of this compound in model marine ecosystem. Less than 50 per cent of the applied activity remained in water in 24 h. Major portion of the applied chlorpyrifos (about 4.2 % residue per g) accumulated into the clams with sediment containing a maximum of 5 to 6 per cent of applied compound. No degradation of chlorpyrifos was observed in water or sediment samples. However, metabolic products were formed in clams. (author). 4 refs., 3 tabs

  13. Multilayer Finite-Element Model Application to Define the Bearing Structure Element Stress State of Launch Complexes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. A. Zverev

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The article objective is to justify the rationale for selecting the multilayer finite element model parameters of the bearing structure of a general-purpose launch complex unit.A typical design element of the launch complex unit, i.e. a mount of the hydraulic or pneumatic cylinder, block, etc. is under consideration. The mount represents a set of the cantilevered axis and external structural cage. The most loaded element of the cage is disk to which a moment is transferred from the cantilevered axis due to actuator effort acting on it.To calculate the stress-strain state of disk was used a finite element method. Five models of disk mount were created. The only difference in models was the number of layers of the finite elements through the thickness of disk. There were models, which had one, three, five, eight, and fourteen layers of finite elements through the thickness of disk. For each model, we calculated the equivalent stresses arising from the action of the test load. Disk models were formed and calculated using the MSC Nastran complex software.The article presents results in the table to show data of equivalent stresses in each of the multi-layered models and graphically to illustrate the changing equivalent stresses through the thickness of disk.Based on these results we have given advice on selecting the proper number of layers in the model allowing a desirable accuracy of results with the lowest run time. In addition, it is concluded that there is a need to use the multi-layer models in assessing the performance of structural elements in case the stress exceeds the allowable one in their surface layers.

  14. A multilayer electro-thermal model of pouch battery during normal discharge and internal short circuit process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Mingbiao; Bai, Fanfei; Song, Wenji; Lv, Jie; Lin, Shili

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • 2D network equivalent circuit considers the interplay of cell units. • The temperature non-uniformity Φ of multilayer model is bigger than that of lumped model. • The temperature non-uniformity is quantified and the reason of non-uniformity is analyzed. • Increasing the thermal conductivity of the separator can effectively relieve the heat spot effect of ISC. - Abstract: As the electrical and thermal characteristic will affect the batteries’ safety, performance, calendar life and capacity fading, an electro-thermal coupled model for pouch battery LiFePO_4/C is developed in normal discharge and internal short circuit process. The battery is discretized into many cell elements which are united as a 2D network equivalent circuit. The electro-thermal model is solved with finite difference method. Non-uniformity of current distribution and temperature distribution is simulated and the result is validated with experiment data at various discharge rates. Comparison of the lumped model and the multilayer structure model shows that the temperature non-uniformity Φ of multilayer model is bigger than that of lumped model and shows more precise. The temperature non-uniformity is quantified and the reason of non-uniformity is analyzed. The electro-thermal model can also be used to guide the safety design of battery. The temperature of the ISC element near tabs is the highest because the equivalent resistance of the external circuit (not including the ISC element) is the smallest when the resistance of cell units is small. It is found that increasing the thermal conductivity of integrated layer can effectively relieve the heat spot effect of ISC.

  15. Vortex stability in a multi-layer quasi-geostrophic model: application to Mediterranean Water eddies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carton, Xavier; Ménesguen, Claire; Meunier, Thomas [Laboratoire de Physique des Oceans, UBO/IFREMER/CNRS/IRD, Brest (France); Sokolovskiy, Mikhail [Institute of Water Problems of the RAS, Moscow (Russian Federation); Aguiar, Ana, E-mail: xcarton@univ-brest.fr [Instituto Dom Luiz, Universidade de Lisboa, Lisbon (Portugal)

    2014-12-01

    The stability of circular vortices to normal mode perturbations is studied in a multi-layer quasi-geostrophic model. The stratification is fitted on the Gulf of Cadiz where many Mediterranean Water (MW) eddies are generated. Observations of MW eddies are used to determine the parameters of the reference experiment; sensitivity tests are conducted around this basic case. The objective of the study is two-fold: (a) determine the growth rates and nonlinear evolutions of unstable perturbations for different three-dimensional (3D) velocity structures of the vortices, (b) check if the different structure of our idealized vortices, mimicking MW cyclones and anticyclones, can induce different stability properties in a model that conserves parity symmetry, and apply these results to observed MW eddies. The linear stability analysis reveals that, among many 3D distributions of velocity, the observed eddies are close to maximal stability, with instability time scales longer than 100 days (these time scales would be less than 10 days for vertically more sheared eddies). The elliptical deformation is most unstable for realistic eddies (the antisymmetric one dominates for small eddies and the triangular one for large eddies); the antisymmetric mode is stronger for cyclones than for anticyclones. Nonlinear evolutions of eddies with radii of about 30 km, and elliptically perturbed, lead to their re-organization into 3D tripoles; smaller eddies are stable and larger eddies break into 3D dipoles. Horizontally more sheared eddies are more unstable and sustain more asymmetric instabilities. In summary, few differences were found between cyclone and anticyclone stability, except for strong horizontal velocity shears. (paper)

  16. Vortex stability in a multi-layer quasi-geostrophic model: application to Mediterranean Water eddies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carton, Xavier; Ménesguen, Claire; Meunier, Thomas; Sokolovskiy, Mikhail; Aguiar, Ana

    2014-01-01

    The stability of circular vortices to normal mode perturbations is studied in a multi-layer quasi-geostrophic model. The stratification is fitted on the Gulf of Cadiz where many Mediterranean Water (MW) eddies are generated. Observations of MW eddies are used to determine the parameters of the reference experiment; sensitivity tests are conducted around this basic case. The objective of the study is two-fold: (a) determine the growth rates and nonlinear evolutions of unstable perturbations for different three-dimensional (3D) velocity structures of the vortices, (b) check if the different structure of our idealized vortices, mimicking MW cyclones and anticyclones, can induce different stability properties in a model that conserves parity symmetry, and apply these results to observed MW eddies. The linear stability analysis reveals that, among many 3D distributions of velocity, the observed eddies are close to maximal stability, with instability time scales longer than 100 days (these time scales would be less than 10 days for vertically more sheared eddies). The elliptical deformation is most unstable for realistic eddies (the antisymmetric one dominates for small eddies and the triangular one for large eddies); the antisymmetric mode is stronger for cyclones than for anticyclones. Nonlinear evolutions of eddies with radii of about 30 km, and elliptically perturbed, lead to their re-organization into 3D tripoles; smaller eddies are stable and larger eddies break into 3D dipoles. Horizontally more sheared eddies are more unstable and sustain more asymmetric instabilities. In summary, few differences were found between cyclone and anticyclone stability, except for strong horizontal velocity shears. (paper)

  17. Modeling net ecosystem carbon exchange of alpine grasslands with a satellite-driven model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei Yan

    Full Text Available Estimate of net ecosystem carbon exchange (NEE between the atmosphere and terrestrial ecosystems, the balance of gross primary productivity (GPP and ecosystem respiration (Reco has significant importance for studying the regional and global carbon cycles. Using models driven by satellite data and climatic data is a promising approach to estimate NEE at regional scales. For this purpose, we proposed a semi-empirical model to estimate NEE in this study. In our model, the component GPP was estimated with a light response curve of a rectangular hyperbola. The component Reco was estimated with an exponential function of soil temperature. To test the feasibility of applying our model at regional scales, the temporal variations in the model parameters derived from NEE observations in an alpine grassland ecosystem on Tibetan Plateau were investigated. The results indicated that all the inverted parameters exhibit apparent seasonality, which is in accordance with air temperature and canopy phenology. In addition, all the parameters have significant correlations with the remote sensed vegetation indexes or environment temperature. With parameters estimated with these correlations, the model illustrated fair accuracy both in the validation years and at another alpine grassland ecosystem on Tibetan Plateau. Our results also indicated that the model prediction was less accurate in drought years, implying that soil moisture is an important factor affecting the model performance. Incorporating soil water content into the model would be a critical step for the improvement of the model.

  18. How to misinterpret photosynthesis measurements and develop incorrect ecosystem models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prentice, Iain Colin

    2017-04-01

    It is becoming widely accepted than current land ecosystem models (dynamic global vegetation models and land-surface models) rest on shaky foundations and are in need of rebuilding, taking advantage of huge data resources that were hardly conceivable when these models were first developed. It has also become almost a truism that next-generation model development should involve observationalists, experimentalists and modellers working more closely together. What is currently lacking, however, is open discussion of specific problems in the structure of current models, and how they might have arisen. Such a discussion is important if the same mistakes are not to be perpetuated in a new generation of models. I will focus on the central processes governing leaf-level gas exchange, which powers the land carbon and water cycles. I will show that a broad area of confusion exists - as much in the empirical ecophysiological literature as in modelling research - concerning the interpretation of gas-exchange measurements and (especially) their scaling up from the narrow temporal and spatial scales of laboratory measurements to the broad-scale research questions linked to global environmental change. In particular, I will provide examples (drawing on a variety of published and unpublished observations) that illustrate the benefits of taking a "plant-centred" view, showing how consideration of optimal acclimation challenges many (often untstated) assumptions about the relationship of plant and ecosystem processes to environmental variation. (1) Photosynthesis is usually measured at light saturation (implying Rubisco limitation), leading to temperature and CO2 responses that are completely different from those of gross primary production (GPP) under field conditions. (2) The actual rate of electron transport under field conditions depends strongly on the intrinsic quantum efficiency, which is temperature-independent (within a broad range) and unrelated to the maximum electron

  19. Simulation modelling of fynbos ecosystems: Systems analysis and conceptual models

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Kruger, FJ

    1985-03-01

    Full Text Available -animal interactions. An additional two models, which expand aspects of the FYNBOS model, are described: a model for simulating canopy processes; and a Fire Recovery Simulator. The canopy process model will simulate ecophysiological processes in more detail than FYNBOS...

  20. Layer-by-layer self-assembled multilayers on PEEK implants improve osseointegration in an osteoporosis rabbit model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Xilin; Han, Fei; Zhao, Peng; Lin, Chao; Wen, Xuejun; Ye, Xiaojian

    2017-05-01

    This study aims to fabricate and deposit nanoscale multilayers on polyetheretherketone (PEEK) to improve cell adhesion and osseointegration. Bio-activated PEEK constructs were designed with prepared surface of different layers of polystyrene sulfonate (PSS) and polyallylamine hydrochloride (PAH) multilayers. Irregular morphology was found on the 5 and 10-layer PEEK surfaces, while "island-like" clusters were observed for 20-layer (20 L) multilayers. Besides, the 20 L PEEK showed more hydrophilic feature than native PEEK, and the surface contact angle reduced from 39.7° to 21.7° as layers increased from 5 to 20. In vitro, modified PEEK allowed excellent adhesion and proliferation of bone marrow stromal cells, and induced higher cell growth rate and alkaline phosphatase level. In vivo, this bio-active PEEK exhibited significantly enhanced integration with bone tissue in an osteoporosis rabbit model. This work highlights layer-by-layer self-assembly as a practical method to construct bio-active PEEK implants for enhanced osseointegration. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. The EBM-DPSER conceptual model: integrating ecosystem services into the DPSIR framework.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christopher R Kelble

    Full Text Available There is a pressing need to integrate biophysical and human dimensions science to better inform holistic ecosystem management supporting the transition from single species or single-sector management to multi-sector ecosystem-based management. Ecosystem-based management should focus upon ecosystem services, since they reflect societal goals, values, desires, and benefits. The inclusion of ecosystem services into holistic management strategies improves management by better capturing the diversity of positive and negative human-natural interactions and making explicit the benefits to society. To facilitate this inclusion, we propose a conceptual model that merges the broadly applied Driver, Pressure, State, Impact, and Response (DPSIR conceptual model with ecosystem services yielding a Driver, Pressure, State, Ecosystem service, and Response (EBM-DPSER conceptual model. The impact module in traditional DPSIR models focuses attention upon negative anthropomorphic impacts on the ecosystem; by replacing impacts with ecosystem services the EBM-DPSER model incorporates not only negative, but also positive changes in the ecosystem. Responses occur as a result of changes in ecosystem services and include inter alia management actions directed at proactively altering human population or individual behavior and infrastructure to meet societal goals. The EBM-DPSER conceptual model was applied to the Florida Keys and Dry Tortugas marine ecosystem as a case study to illustrate how it can inform management decisions. This case study captures our system-level understanding and results in a more holistic representation of ecosystem and human society interactions, thus improving our ability to identify trade-offs. The EBM-DPSER model should be a useful operational tool for implementing EBM, in that it fully integrates our knowledge of all ecosystem components while focusing management attention upon those aspects of the ecosystem most important to human society

  2. The EBM-DPSER Conceptual Model: Integrating Ecosystem Services into the DPSIR Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelble, Christopher R.; Loomis, Dave K.; Lovelace, Susan; Nuttle, William K.; Ortner, Peter B.; Fletcher, Pamela; Cook, Geoffrey S.; Lorenz, Jerry J.; Boyer, Joseph N.

    2013-01-01

    There is a pressing need to integrate biophysical and human dimensions science to better inform holistic ecosystem management supporting the transition from single species or single-sector management to multi-sector ecosystem-based management. Ecosystem-based management should focus upon ecosystem services, since they reflect societal goals, values, desires, and benefits. The inclusion of ecosystem services into holistic management strategies improves management by better capturing the diversity of positive and negative human-natural interactions and making explicit the benefits to society. To facilitate this inclusion, we propose a conceptual model that merges the broadly applied Driver, Pressure, State, Impact, and Response (DPSIR) conceptual model with ecosystem services yielding a Driver, Pressure, State, Ecosystem service, and Response (EBM-DPSER) conceptual model. The impact module in traditional DPSIR models focuses attention upon negative anthropomorphic impacts on the ecosystem; by replacing impacts with ecosystem services the EBM-DPSER model incorporates not only negative, but also positive changes in the ecosystem. Responses occur as a result of changes in ecosystem services and include inter alia management actions directed at proactively altering human population or individual behavior and infrastructure to meet societal goals. The EBM-DPSER conceptual model was applied to the Florida Keys and Dry Tortugas marine ecosystem as a case study to illustrate how it can inform management decisions. This case study captures our system-level understanding and results in a more holistic representation of ecosystem and human society interactions, thus improving our ability to identify trade-offs. The EBM-DPSER model should be a useful operational tool for implementing EBM, in that it fully integrates our knowledge of all ecosystem components while focusing management attention upon those aspects of the ecosystem most important to human society and does so within

  3. Evaluation of functionality and biological response of the multilayer flow modulator in porcine animal models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sultan, Sherif; Kavanagh, Edel P; Hynes, Niamh; Diethrich, Edward B

    2016-02-01

    This study outlines the use of non-aneurysmal porcine animal models to study device functionality and biological response of the Multilayer Flow Modulator (MFM) (Cardiatis, Isnes, Belgium), with an emphasis on preclinical device functionality and biological response characteristics in an otherwise healthy aorta. Twelve animals were implanted with the study device in the abdominal aorta, in 6 animals for 1 month and 6 animals for 6 months. Upon completion of the study period, each animal underwent a necropsy to examine how the implanted device had affected the artery and surrounding tissue. Neointima and stenosis formation were recorded via morphometry, and endothelialization via histopathological analysis. The MFM devices were delivered to their respective implantation sites without difficulty. Six of the implanted stents were oversized with percentages ranging from 2.6% to 18.8%. Statistical analysis was carried out and showed no significance between the regular sized stent group and oversized stent group for neointimal area (P=0.17), neointimal thickness (P=0.17), and percentage area stenosis (P=0.65). Histopathological findings showed in most areas flattened endothelium like cells lined the luminal surface of the neointima. Scanning electron microscopy also showed the devices were well tolerated, inciting only a minimal neointimal covering and little fibrin or platelet deposition. Neointimal thickness of 239.7±55.6 μm and 318.3±130.4 μm, and percentage area stenosis of 9.6±2.6% and 12.6±5% were recorded at 1 and 6 months respectively. No statistical differences were found between these results. The MFM devices were delivered to their respective implantation sites without difficulty and incited little neointimal and stenosis formation in the aorta, affirming its functionality and biocompatibility.

  4. Multiscale Simulation and Modeling of Multilayer Heteroepitactic Growth of C60 on Pentacene.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Acevedo, Yaset M; Cantrell, Rebecca A; Berard, Philip G; Koch, Donald L; Clancy, Paulette

    2016-03-29

    We apply multiscale methods to describe the strained growth of multiple layers of C60 on a thin film of pentacene. We study this growth in the presence of a monolayer pentacene step to compare our simulations to recent experimental studies by Breuer and Witte of submonolayer growth in the presence of monolayer steps. The molecular-level details of this organic semiconductor interface have ramifications on the macroscale structural and electronic behavior of this system and allow us to describe several unexplained experimental observations for this system. The growth of a C60 thin film on a pentacene surface is complicated by the differing crystal habits of the two component species, leading to heteroepitactical growth. In order to probe this growth, we use three computational methods that offer different approaches to coarse-graining the system and differing degrees of computational efficiency. We present a new, efficient reaction-diffusion continuum model for 2D systems whose results compare well with mesoscale kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC) results for submonolayer growth. KMC extends our ability to simulate multiple layers but requires a library of predefined rates for event transitions. Coarse-grained molecular dynamics (CGMD) circumvents KMC's need for predefined lattices, allowing defects and grain boundaries to provide a more realistic thin film morphology. For multilayer growth, in this particularly suitable candidate for coarse-graining, CGMD is a preferable approach to KMC. Combining the results from these three methods, we show that the lattice strain induced by heteroepitactical growth promotes 3D growth and the creation of defects in the first monolayer. The CGMD results are consistent with experimental results on the same system by Conrad et al. and by Breuer and Witte in which C60 aggregates change from a 2D structure at low temperature to 3D clusters along the pentacene step edges at higher temperatures.

  5. Modelling of migration from multi-layers and functional barriers: Estimation of parameters

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dole, P.; Voulzatis, Y.; Vitrac, O.; Reynier, A.; Hankemeier, T.; Aucejo, S.; Feigenbaum, A.

    2006-01-01

    Functional barriers form parts of multi-layer packaging materials, which are deemed to protect the food from migration of a broad range of contaminants, e.g. those associated with reused packaging. Often, neither the presence nor the identity of the contaminants is known, so that safety assessment

  6. Prototyping an online wetland ecosystem services model using open model sharing standards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, M.; Liu, S.; Euliss, N.H.; Young, Caitlin; Mushet, D.M.

    2011-01-01

    Great interest currently exists for developing ecosystem models to forecast how ecosystem services may change under alternative land use and climate futures. Ecosystem services are diverse and include supporting services or functions (e.g., primary production, nutrient cycling), provisioning services (e.g., wildlife, groundwater), regulating services (e.g., water purification, floodwater retention), and even cultural services (e.g., ecotourism, cultural heritage). Hence, the knowledge base necessary to quantify ecosystem services is broad and derived from many diverse scientific disciplines. Building the required interdisciplinary models is especially challenging as modelers from different locations and times may develop the disciplinary models needed for ecosystem simulations, and these models must be identified and made accessible to the interdisciplinary simulation. Additional difficulties include inconsistent data structures, formats, and metadata required by geospatial models as well as limitations on computing, storage, and connectivity. Traditional standalone and closed network systems cannot fully support sharing and integrating interdisciplinary geospatial models from variant sources. To address this need, we developed an approach to openly share and access geospatial computational models using distributed Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques and open geospatial standards. We included a means to share computational models compliant with Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) Web Processing Services (WPS) standard to ensure modelers have an efficient and simplified means to publish new models. To demonstrate our approach, we developed five disciplinary models that can be integrated and shared to simulate a few of the ecosystem services (e.g., water storage, waterfowl breeding) that are provided by wetlands in the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of North America.

  7. Innovation ecosystem model for commercialization of research results

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vlăduţ Gabriel

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Innovation means Creativity and Added value recognise by the market. The first step in creating a sustainable commercialization of research results, Technological Transfer – TT mechanism, on one hand is to define the “technology” which will be transferred and on other hand to define the context in which the TT mechanism work, the ecosystem. The focus must be set on technology as an entity, not as a science or a study of the practical industrial arts and certainly not any specific applied science. The transfer object, the technology, must rely on a subjectively determined but specifiable set of processes and products. Focusing on the product is not sufficient to the transfer and diffusion of technology. It is not merely the product that is transferred but also knowledge of its use and application. The innovation ecosystem model brings together new companies, experienced business leaders, researchers, government officials, established technology companies, and investors. This environment provides those new companies with a wealth of technical expertise, business experience, and access to capital that supports innovation in the early stages of growth.

  8. ESTIMAP: A GIS-BASED MODEL TO MAP ECOSYSTEM SERVICES IN THE EUROPEAN UNION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Zulian

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Policies of the European Union which affect the use or protection of natural resources increasingly need spatial data on the supply, the flow and the demand of ecosystem services. The model ESTIMAP was developed to this purpose. ESTIMAP departs from land cover and land use maps to which it adds other spatial information with the objective to map various ecosystem services. This study introduces the ESTIMAP map as tool to support the mapping and modelling of ecosystem services at European scale. Examples are provided for three regulating ecosystem services, air quality regulation, coastal protection, and pollination and one cultural ecosystem services, recreation. 

  9. A Non-linear Predictive Model of Borderline Personality Disorder Based on Multilayer Perceptron.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maldonato, Nelson M; Sperandeo, Raffaele; Moretto, Enrico; Dell'Orco, Silvia

    2018-01-01

    Borderline Personality Disorder is a serious mental disease, classified in Cluster B of DSM IV-TR personality disorders. People with this syndrome presents an anamnesis of traumatic experiences and shows dissociative symptoms. Since not all subjects who have been victims of trauma develop a Borderline Personality Disorder, the emergence of this serious disease seems to have the fragility of character as a predisposing condition. Infect, numerous studies show that subjects positive for diagnosis of Borderline Personality Disorder had scores extremely high or extremely low to some temperamental dimensions (harm Avoidance and reward dependence) and character dimensions (cooperativeness and self directedness). In a sample of 602 subjects, who have had consecutive access to an Outpatient Mental Health Service, it was evaluated the presence of Borderline Personality Disorder using the semi-structured interview for the DSM IV-TR personality disorders. In this population we assessed the presence of dissociative symptoms with the Dissociative Experiences Scale and the personality traits with the Temperament and Character Inventory developed by Cloninger. To assess the weight and the predictive value of these psychopathological dimensions in relation to the Borderline Personality Disorder diagnosis, a neural network statistical model called "multilayer perceptron," was implemented. This model was developed with a dichotomous dependent variable, consisting in the presence or absence of the diagnosis of borderline personality disorder and with five covariates. The first one is the taxonomic subscale of dissociative experience scale, the others are temperamental and characterial traits: Novelty-Seeking, Harm-Avoidance, Self-Directedness and Cooperativeness. The statistical model, that results satisfactory, showed a significance capacity (89%) to predict the presence of borderline personality disorder. Furthermore, the dissociative symptoms seem to have a greater influence than

  10. A Non-linear Predictive Model of Borderline Personality Disorder Based on Multilayer Perceptron

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nelson M. Maldonato

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Borderline Personality Disorder is a serious mental disease, classified in Cluster B of DSM IV-TR personality disorders. People with this syndrome presents an anamnesis of traumatic experiences and shows dissociative symptoms. Since not all subjects who have been victims of trauma develop a Borderline Personality Disorder, the emergence of this serious disease seems to have the fragility of character as a predisposing condition. Infect, numerous studies show that subjects positive for diagnosis of Borderline Personality Disorder had scores extremely high or extremely low to some temperamental dimensions (harm Avoidance and reward dependence and character dimensions (cooperativeness and self directedness. In a sample of 602 subjects, who have had consecutive access to an Outpatient Mental Health Service, it was evaluated the presence of Borderline Personality Disorder using the semi-structured interview for the DSM IV-TR personality disorders. In this population we assessed the presence of dissociative symptoms with the Dissociative Experiences Scale and the personality traits with the Temperament and Character Inventory developed by Cloninger. To assess the weight and the predictive value of these psychopathological dimensions in relation to the Borderline Personality Disorder diagnosis, a neural network statistical model called “multilayer perceptron,” was implemented. This model was developed with a dichotomous dependent variable, consisting in the presence or absence of the diagnosis of borderline personality disorder and with five covariates. The first one is the taxonomic subscale of dissociative experience scale, the others are temperamental and characterial traits: Novelty-Seeking, Harm-Avoidance, Self-Directedness and Cooperativeness. The statistical model, that results satisfactory, showed a significance capacity (89% to predict the presence of borderline personality disorder. Furthermore, the dissociative symptoms seem to have a

  11. Modelling the ecosystem effects of nitrogen deposition: Model of Ecosystem Retention and Loss of Inorganic Nitrogen (MERLIN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. J. Cosby

    1997-01-01

    Full Text Available A catchment-scale mass-balance model of linked carbon and nitrogen cycling in ecosystems has been developed for simulating leaching losses of inorganic nitrogen. The model (MERLIN considers linked biotic and abiotic processes affecting the cycling and storage of nitrogen. The model is aggregated in space and time and contains compartments intended to be observable and/or interpretable at the plot or catchment scale. The structure of the model includes the inorganic soil, a plant compartment and two soil organic compartments. Fluxes in and out of the ecosystem and between compartments are regulated by atmospheric deposition, hydrological discharge, plant uptake, litter production, wood production, microbial immobilization, mineralization, nitrification, and denitrification. Nitrogen fluxes are controlled by carbon productivity, the C:N ratios of organic compartments and inorganic nitrogen in soil solution. Inputs required are: 1 temporal sequences of carbon fluxes and pools- 2 time series of hydrological discharge through the soils, 3 historical and current external sources of inorganic nitrogen; 4 current amounts of nitrogen in the plant and soil organic compartments; 5 constants specifying the nitrogen uptake and immobilization characteristics of the plant and soil organic compartments; and 6 soil characteristics such as depth, porosity, bulk density, and anion/cation exchange constants. Outputs include: 1 concentrations and fluxes of NO3 and NH4 in soil solution and runoff; 2 total nitrogen contents of the organic and inorganic compartments; 3 C:N ratios of the aggregated plant and soil organic compartments; and 4 rates of nitrogen uptake and immobilization and nitrogen mineralization. The behaviour of the model is assessed for a combination of land-use change and nitrogen deposition scenarios in a series of speculative simulations. The results of the simulations are in broad agreement with observed and hypothesized behaviour of nitrogen

  12. Modelling benthic biophysical drivers of ecosystem structure and biogeochemical response

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephens, Nicholas; Bruggeman, Jorn; Lessin, Gennadi; Allen, Icarus

    2016-04-01

    The fate of carbon deposited at the sea floor is ultimately decided by biophysical drivers that control the efficiency of remineralisation and timescale of carbon burial in sediments. Specifically, these drivers include bioturbation through ingestion and movement, burrow-flushing and sediment reworking, which enhance vertical particulate transport and solute diffusion. Unfortunately, these processes are rarely satisfactorily resolved in models. To address this, a benthic model that explicitly describes the vertical position of biology (e.g., habitats) and biogeochemical processes is presented that includes biological functionality and biogeochemical response capturing changes in ecosystem structure, benthic-pelagic fluxes and biodiversity on inter-annual timescales. This is demonstrated by the model's ability to reproduce temporal variability in benthic infauna, vertical pore water nutrients and pelagic-benthic solute fluxes compared to in-situ data. A key advance is the replacement of bulk parameterisation of bioturbation by explicit description of the bio-physical processes responsible. This permits direct comparison with observations and determination of key parameters in experiments. Crucially, the model resolves the two-way interaction between sediment biogeochemistry and ecology, allowing exploration of the benthic response to changing environmental conditions, the importance of infaunal functional traits in shaping benthic ecological structure and the feedback the resulting bio-physical processes exert on pore water nutrient profiles. The model is actively being used to understand shelf sea carbon cycling, the response of the benthos to climatic change, food provision and other societal benefits.

  13. 14C Carbofuran residue in rice-fish ecosystem model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sumatra, M.; Soekarna, D.; Suhanda; Kuswadi, A.N.

    1988-01-01

    14-C-carbofuran in the form of 14-C-Furada 3G was applied with doses of 0, 2, and 4 g/m2 to a rice-fish ecosystem model consisting of water, soil, rice, plant, and fish (Cyprinus carpio) in tanks of the size 1 m length, 1 m width, and 0.5 m depth. 14-C-carbofuran was released from 14-C-Furadan 3G, entered into the water, absorbed by plant root, and then distributed into the whole plant. A part of the 14-C-carbofuran was absorbed and retained by soil. In both doses of 4 and 2 g/m2, the 14-C-Furadan 3G was toxic to Cyprinus carpio under this experiment condition. (author). 5 refs, 5 figs, 6 tabs

  14. Spatial Distribution of Hydrologic Ecosystem Service Estimates: Comparing Two Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dennedy-Frank, P. J.; Ghile, Y.; Gorelick, S.; Logsdon, R. A.; Chaubey, I.; Ziv, G.

    2014-12-01

    We compare estimates of the spatial distribution of water quantity provided (annual water yield) from two ecohydrologic models: the widely-used Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and the much simpler water models from the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) toolbox. These two models differ significantly in terms of complexity, timescale of operation, effort, and data required for calibration, and so are often used in different management contexts. We compare two study sites in the US: the Wildcat Creek Watershed (2083 km2) in Indiana, a largely agricultural watershed in a cold aseasonal climate, and the Upper Upatoi Creek Watershed (876 km2) in Georgia, a mostly forested watershed in a temperate aseasonal climate. We evaluate (1) quantitative estimates of water yield to explore how well each model represents this process, and (2) ranked estimates of water yield to indicate how useful the models are for management purposes where other social and financial factors may play significant roles. The SWAT and InVEST models provide very similar estimates of the water yield of individual subbasins in the Wildcat Creek Watershed (Pearson r = 0.92, slope = 0.89), and a similar ranking of the relative water yield of those subbasins (Spearman r = 0.86). However, the two models provide relatively different estimates of the water yield of individual subbasins in the Upper Upatoi Watershed (Pearson r = 0.25, slope = 0.14), and very different ranking of the relative water yield of those subbasins (Spearman r = -0.10). The Upper Upatoi watershed has a significant baseflow contribution due to its sandy, well-drained soils. InVEST's simple seasonality terms, which assume no change in storage over the time of the model run, may not accurately estimate water yield processes when baseflow provides such a strong contribution. Our results suggest that InVEST users take care in situations where storage changes are significant.

  15. Thermal Depth Profiling Reconstruction by Multilayer Thermal Quadrupole Modeling and Particle Swarm Optimization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhao-Jiang, Chen; Shu-Yi, Zhang

    2010-01-01

    A new hybrid inversion method for depth profiling reconstruction of thermal conductivities of inhomogeneous solids is proposed based on multilayer quadrupole formalism of thermal waves, particle swarm optimization and sequential quadratic programming. The reconstruction simulations for several thermal conductivity profiles are performed to evaluate the applicability of the method. The numerical simulations demonstrate that the precision and insensitivity to noise of the inversion method are very satisfactory. (condensed matter: structure, mechanical and thermal properties)

  16. Modeling skin cooling using optical windows and cryogens during laser induced hyperthermia in a multilayer vascularized tissue

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Singh, Rupesh; Das, Koushik; Okajima, Junnosuke; Maruyama, Shigenao; Mishra, Subhash C.

    2015-01-01

    This article deals with the spatial and the temporal evolution of tissue temperature during skin surface cooled laser induced hyperthermia. Three different skin surface cooling methodologies viz., optical window contact cooling, cryogenic spray cooling and cryogen cooled optical window contact cooling are considered. Sapphire, yttrium aluminum garnet, lithium tantalate, and magnesium oxide doped lithium niobate are the considered optical windows. The cryogens considered are liquid CO_2 and R1234yf. Heat transfer in the multilayer skin tissue embedded with thermally significant blood vessels pairs is modeled using the Pennes and Weinbaum–Jiji bioheat equations. Weinbaum–Jiji bioheat equation is used for the vascularized tissue. Laser transport in the tissue is modeled using the radiative transfer equation. Axial and radial (skin surface) temperature distributions for different combinations of optical windows and cryogens are analyzed. Liquid CO_2 cooled yttrium aluminum garnet is found to be the best surface cooling mechanism. - Highlights: • Skin surface cooled laser induced hyperthermia is studied. • A multi-layer 2-D cylindrical tissue geometry is considered. • Both Pennes and Weinbaum–Jiji bioheat models are considered. • Laser transport in the tissue is modeled using discrete ordinate method. • Results for 4 optical windows and 2 cryogens for skin cooling are presented.

  17. Modelling the impact of soil Carbonic Anhydrase on the net ecosystem exchange of OCS at Harvard forest using the MuSICA model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Launois, Thomas; Ogée, Jérôme; Commane, Roisin; Wehr, Rchard; Meredith, Laura; Munger, Bill; Nelson, David; Saleska, Scott; Wofsy, Steve; Zahniser, Mark; Wingate, Lisa

    2016-04-01

    The exchange of CO2 between the terrestrial biosphere and the atmosphere is driven by photosynthetic uptake and respiratory loss, two fluxes currently estimated with considerable uncertainty at large scales. Model predictions indicate that these biosphere fluxes will be modified in the future as CO2 concentrations and temperatures increase; however, it still unclear to what extent. To address this challenge there is a need for better constraints on land surface model parameterisations. Additional atmospheric tracers of large-scale CO2 fluxes have been identified as potential candidates for this task. In particular carbonyl sulphide (OCS) has been proposed as a complementary tracer of gross photosynthesis over land, since OCS uptake by plants is dominated by carbonic anhydrase (CA) activity, an enzyme abundant in leaves that catalyses CO2 hydration during photosynthesis. However, although the mass budget at the ecosystem is dominated by the flux of OCS into leaves, some OCS is also exchanged between the atmosphere and the soil and this component of the budget requires constraining. In this study, we adapted the process-based isotope-enabled model MuSICA (Multi-layer Simulator of the Interactions between a vegetation Canopy and the Atmosphere) to include the transport, reaction, diffusion and production of OCS within a forested ecosystem. This model was combined with 3 years (2011-2013) of in situ measurements of OCS atmospheric concentration profiles and fluxes at the Harvard Forest (Massachussets, USA) to test hypotheses on the mechanisms responsible for CA-driven uptake by leaves and soils as well as possible OCS emissions during litter decomposition. Model simulations over the three years captured well the impact of diurnally and seasonally varying environmental conditions on the net ecosystem OCS flux. A sensitivity analysis on soil CA activity and soil OCS emission rates was also performed to quantify their impact on the vertical profiles of OCS inside the

  18. Modelling the Flow Stress of Alloy 316L using a Multi-Layered Feed Forward Neural Network with Bayesian Regularization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abiriand Bhekisipho Twala, Olufunminiyi

    2017-08-01

    In this paper, a multilayer feedforward neural network with Bayesian regularization constitutive model is developed for alloy 316L during high strain rate and high temperature plastic deformation. The input variables are strain rate, temperature and strain while the output value is the flow stress of the material. The results show that the use of Bayesian regularized technique reduces the potential of overfitting and overtraining. The prediction quality of the model is thereby improved. The model predictions are in good agreement with experimental measurements. The measurement data used for the network training and model comparison were taken from relevant literature. The developed model is robust as it can be generalized to deformation conditions slightly below or above the training dataset.

  19. A Multi-layer Dynamic Model for Coordination Based Group Decision Making in Water Resource Allocation and Scheduling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Wei; Zhang, Xingnan; Li, Chenming; Wang, Jianying

    Management of group decision-making is an important issue in water source management development. In order to overcome the defects in lacking of effective communication and cooperation in the existing decision-making models, this paper proposes a multi-layer dynamic model for coordination in water resource allocation and scheduling based group decision making. By introducing the scheme-recognized cooperative satisfaction index and scheme-adjusted rationality index, the proposed model can solve the problem of poor convergence of multi-round decision-making process in water resource allocation and scheduling. Furthermore, the problem about coordination of limited resources-based group decision-making process can be solved based on the effectiveness of distance-based group of conflict resolution. The simulation results show that the proposed model has better convergence than the existing models.

  20. Ecosystem-based fishery management: a critical review of concepts and ecological economic models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nguyen, Thanh Viet

      An ecosystem approach means different things to different people. As a result the concept of ecosystem-based fishery management is evolving and it has no universal definition or consistent application. As regards ecosystem modeling, most economic models of fishery ignore the linkages to lower...... trophic levels. In particular, environmental data and other bottom-up information is widely disregarded. The objective of this paper is to provide a critical review of concepts and ecological economic models relating to ecosystem-based fishery management....

  1. Empirical Modeling of Physiochemical Immune Response of Multilayer Zinc Oxide Nanomaterials under UV Exposure to Melanoma and Foreskin Fibroblasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fakhar-E-Alam, Muhammad; Akram, M. Waseem; Iqbal, Seemab; Alimgeer, K. S.; Atif, M.; Sultana, K.; Willander, M.; Wang, Zhiming M.

    2017-04-01

    Carcinogenesis is a complex molecular process starting with genetic and epigenetic alterations, mutation stimulation, and DNA modification, which leads to proteomic adaptation ending with an uncontrolled proliferation mechanism. The current research focused on the empirical modelling of the physiological response of human melanoma cells (FM55P) and human foreskin fibroblasts cells (AG01518) to the multilayer zinc oxide (ZnO) nanomaterials under UV-A exposure. To validate this experimental scheme, multilayer ZnO nanomaterials were grown on a femtotip silver capillary and conjugated with protoporphyrin IX (PpIX). Furthermore, PpIX-conjugated ZnO nanomaterials grown on the probe were inserted into human melanoma (FM55P) and foreskin fibroblasts cells (AG01518) under UV-A light exposure. Interestingly, significant cell necrosis was observed because of a loss in mitochondrial membrane potential just after insertion of the femtotip tool. Intense reactive oxygen species (ROS) fluorescence was observed after exposure to the ZnO NWs conjugated with PpIX femtotip model under UV exposure. Results were verified by applying several experimental techniques, e.g., ROS detection, MTT assay, and fluorescence spectroscopy. The present work reports experimental modelling of cell necrosis in normal human skin as well as a cancerous tissue. These obtained results pave the way for a more rational strategy for biomedical and clinical applications.

  2. Multi-Layered Stratification in the Baltic Sea: Insight from a Modeling Study with Reference to Environmental Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bijan Dargahi

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The hydrodynamic and transport characteristics of the Baltic Sea in the period 2000–2009 were studied using a fully calibrated and validated 3D hydrodynamic model with a horizontal resolution of 4.8 km. This study provided new insight into the type and dynamics of vertical structure in the Baltic Sea, not considered in previous studies. Thermal and salinity stratification are both addressed, with a focus on the structural properties of the layers. The detection of cooler regions (dicothermal within the layer structure is an important finding. The detailed investigation of thermal stratification for a 10-year period (i.e., 2000–2009 revealed some new features. A multilayered structure that contains several thermocline and dicothermal layers was identified from this study. Statistical analysis of the simulation results made it possible to derive the mean thermal stratification properties, expressed as mean temperatures and the normalized layer thicknesses. The three-layered model proposed by previous investigators appears to be valid only during the winter periods; for other periods, a multi-layered structure with more than five layers has been identified during this investigation. This study provides detailed insight into thermal and salinity stratification in the Baltic Sea during a recent decade that can be used as a basis for diverse environmental assessments. It extends previous studies on stratification in the Baltic Sea regarding both the extent and the nature of stratification.

  3. Comparing the Applicability of Commonly Used Hydrological Ecosystem Services Models for Integrated Decision-Support

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna Lüke

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Different simulation models are used in science and practice in order to incorporate hydrological ecosystem services in decision-making processes. This contribution compares three simulation models, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool, a traditional hydrological model and two ecosystem services models, the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs model and the Resource Investment Optimization System model. The three models are compared on a theoretical and conceptual basis as well in a comparative case study application. The application of the models to a study area in Nicaragua reveals that a practical benefit to apply these models for different questions in decision-making generally exists. However, modelling of hydrological ecosystem services is associated with a high application effort and requires input data that may not always be available. The degree of detail in temporal and spatial variability in ecosystem service provision is higher when using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool compared to the two ecosystem service models. In contrast, the ecosystem service models have lower requirements on input data and process knowledge. A relationship between service provision and beneficiaries is readily produced and can be visualized as a model output. The visualization is especially useful for a practical decision-making context.

  4. Assessing the Impact of Canopy Structure Simplification in Common Multilayer Models on Irradiance Absorption Estimates of Measured and Virtually Created Fagus sylvatica (L. Stands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pol Coppin

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available Multilayer canopy representations are the most common structural stand representations due to their simplicity. Implementation of recent advances in technology has allowed scientists to simulate geometrically explicit forest canopies. The effect of simplified representations of tree architecture (i.e., multilayer representations of four Fagus sylvatica (L. stands, each with different LAI, on the light absorption estimates was assessed in comparison with explicit 3D geometrical stands. The absorbed photosynthetic radiation at stand level was calculated. Subsequently, each geometrically explicit 3D stand was compared with three multilayer models representing horizontal, uniform, and planophile leaf angle distributions. The 3D stands were created either by in situ measured trees or by modelled trees generated with the AMAP plant growth software. The Physically Based Ray Tracer (PBRT algorithm was used to simulate the irradiance absorbance of the detailed 3D architecture stands, while for the three multilayer representations, the probability of light interception was simulated by applying the Beer-Lambert’s law. The irradiance inside the canopies was characterized as direct, diffuse and scattered irradiance. The irradiance absorbance of the stands was computed during eight angular sun configurations ranging from 10° (near nadir up to 80° sun zenith angles. Furthermore, a leaf stratification (the number and angular distribution of leaves per LAI layer inside a canopy analysis between the 3D stands and the multilayer representations was performed, indicating the amount of irradiance each leaf is absorbing along with the percentage of sunny and shadow leaves inside the canopy. The results reveal that a multilayer representation of a stand, using a multilayer modelling approach, greatly overestimated the absorbed irradiance in an open canopy, while it provided a better approximation in the case of a closed canopy. Moreover, the actual stratification

  5. An integrated model of soil, hydrology, and vegetation for carbon dynamics in wetland ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu Zhang; Changsheng Li; Carl C. Trettin; Harbin Li; Ge Sun

    2002-01-01

    Wetland ecosystems are an important component in global carbon (C) cycles and may exert a large influence on global clinlate change. Predictions of C dynamics require us to consider interactions among many critical factors of soil, hydrology, and vegetation. However, few such integrated C models exist for wetland ecosystems. In this paper, we report a simulation model...

  6. Exploring, exploiting and evolving diversity of aquatic ecosystem models: a community perspective

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Janssen, A.B.G.; Gerla, D.J.

    2015-01-01

    Here, we present a community perspective on how to explore, exploit and evolve the diversity in aquatic ecosystem models. These models play an important role in understanding the functioning of aquatic ecosystems, filling in observation gaps and developing effective strategies for water quality

  7. Direct and inverse problems of studying the properties of multilayer nanostructures based on a two-dimensional model of X-ray reflection and scattering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khachaturov, R. V.

    2014-06-01

    A mathematical model of X-ray reflection and scattering by multilayered nanostructures in the quasi-optical approximation is proposed. X-ray propagation and the electric field distribution inside the multilayered structure are considered with allowance for refraction, which is taken into account via the second derivative with respect to the depth of the structure. This model is used to demonstrate the possibility of solving inverse problems in order to determine the characteristics of irregularities not only over the depth (as in the one-dimensional problem) but also over the length of the structure. An approximate combinatorial method for system decomposition and composition is proposed for solving the inverse problems.

  8. Ecosystem model of the entire Beaufort Sea marine ecosystem: a tool for assessing food-web structure and ecosystem changes from 1970 to 2014

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suprenand, P. M.; Hoover, C.

    2016-02-01

    The Beaufort Sea coastal-marine ecosystem is approximately a 476,000 km2 area in the Arctic Ocean, which extends from -112.5 to -158° longitude to 67.5 to 75° latitude. Within this Arctic Ocean area the United States (Alaskan) indigenous communities of Barrow, Kaktovik, and Nuiqsut, and the Canadian (Northwest Territories) indigenous communities of Aklavik, Inuvik, Tuktoyaktuk, Paulatuk, Ulukhaktok, and Sachs Harbour, subsist by harvesting marine mammals, fish, and invertebrates from the Beaufort Sea to provide the majority of their community foods annually. The ecosystem in which the indigenous communities harvest is considered a polar habitat that includes many specialized species, such as polar bears that rely on sea-ice for foraging activities and denning, or ice algae that are attached to the cryosphere. However, the polar habitat has been experiencing a diminishing sea-ice extent, age, and seasonal duration, with concomitant increases in sea surface temperatures (SSTs), since the 1970s. Changes in sea-ice and SST have consequences to the Beaufort Sea coastal-marine ecosystem, which includes animal habitat losses, alterations to trophodynamics, and impacts to subsistence community harvesting. The present study was aimed at capturing trophodynamic changes in the Beaufort Sea coastal-marine ecosystem from 1970 to 2014 using a fitted spatial-temporal model (Ecopath with Ecosim and Ecospace) that utilizes forcing and mediation functions to describe animal/trophodynamic relationships with sea-ice and sea surface temperature, as well as individual community harvesting efforts. Model outputs reveals similar trends in animals population changes (e.g., increasing bowhead whale stock), changes in apex predator diets (e.g., polar bears eating less ringed seal), and changes in animal distributions (e.g., polar bears remaining closer to land over time). The Beaufort Sea model is a dynamic tool for Arctic Ocean natural resource management in the years to come.

  9. 'Ecological value added' in an integrated ecosystem-economy model. An indicator for sustainability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kratena, Kurt

    2004-01-01

    This paper sets up an input-output system of the relevant ecosystem flows that determine the carbon cycle in the global ecosystem. Introducing energy as the value added component in the ecosystem allows to calculate ecosystem prices expressed in 'energy values'. Linking the ecosystem with the economy in an integrated input-output model then allows to calculate prices of economic activities and of ecosystem activities. In analogy to the 'Ecological Footprint', where productive land is needed to absorb anthropogenic emissions, in this integrated input-output model additional carbon sinks are introduced for emission absorption. These carbon sinks need solar energy input, i.e. 'ecological value added'. Emission absorption as well as GDP therefore become activities valued in the numeraire of the integrated system, i.e.'energy values'. From that sustainability indicators can be derived

  10. Modeling of a collimator micro-multilayers in the Pinnacle planning system; Modelado de un colimador micromultilaminas en el sistema de planificacion Pinnacle

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garcia Hernandez, T.; Brualla Gonzalez, L.; Vicedo Gonzalez, A.; Rosello Ferrando, J.; Granero Cabanero, D.

    2013-07-01

    To model and validate, in the system of planning and calculation Pinnacle, a micro-multilayers collimator mounted on an accelerator Siemens Primus. The objective is to take advantage of the improvements offered by the algorithm of convolution of cone collapsed and the capacity of the system of modeling the rounded end of the blades. (Author)

  11. Forest Ecosystem Dynamics Assessment and Predictive Modelling in Eastern Himalaya

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kushwaha, S. P. S.; Nandy, S.; Ahmad, M.; Agarwal, R.

    2011-09-01

    This study focused on the forest ecosystem dynamics assessment and predictive modelling deforestation and forest cover prediction in a part of north-eastern India i.e. forest areas along West Bengal, Bhutan, Arunachal Pradesh and Assam border in Eastern Himalaya using temporal satellite imagery of 1975, 1990 and 2009 and predicted forest cover for the period 2028 using Cellular Automata Markov Modedel (CAMM). The exercise highlighted large-scale deforestation in the study area during 1975-1990 as well as 1990-2009 forest cover vectors. A net loss of 2,334.28 km2 forest cover was noticed between 1975 and 2009, and with current rate of deforestation, a forest area of 4,563.34 km2 will be lost by 2028. The annual rate of deforestation worked out to be 0.35 and 0.78% during 1975-1990 and 1990-2009 respectively. Bamboo forest increased by 24.98% between 1975 and 2009 due to opening up of the forests. Forests in Kokrajhar, Barpeta, Darrang, Sonitpur, and Dhemaji districts in Assam were noticed to be worst-affected while Lower Subansiri, West and East Siang, Dibang Valley, Lohit and Changlang in Arunachal Pradesh were severely affected. Among different forest types, the maximum loss was seen in case of sal forest (37.97%) between 1975 and 2009 and is expected to deplete further to 60.39% by 2028. The tropical moist deciduous forest was the next category, which decreased from 5,208.11 km2 to 3,447.28 (33.81%) during same period with further chances of depletion to 2,288.81 km2 (56.05%) by 2028. It noted progressive loss of forests in the study area between 1975 and 2009 through 1990 and predicted that, unless checked, the area is in for further depletion of the invaluable climax forests in the region, especially sal and moist deciduous forests. The exercise demonstrated high potential of remote sensing and geographic information system for forest ecosystem dynamics assessment and the efficacy of CAMM to predict the forest cover change.

  12. FOREST ECOSYSTEM DYNAMICS ASSESSMENT AND PREDICTIVE MODELLING IN EASTERN HIMALAYA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. P. S. Kushwaha

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available This study focused on the forest ecosystem dynamics assessment and predictive modelling deforestation and forest cover prediction in a part of north-eastern India i.e. forest areas along West Bengal, Bhutan, Arunachal Pradesh and Assam border in Eastern Himalaya using temporal satellite imagery of 1975, 1990 and 2009 and predicted forest cover for the period 2028 using Cellular Automata Markov Modedel (CAMM. The exercise highlighted large-scale deforestation in the study area during 1975–1990 as well as 1990–2009 forest cover vectors. A net loss of 2,334.28 km2 forest cover was noticed between 1975 and 2009, and with current rate of deforestation, a forest area of 4,563.34 km2 will be lost by 2028. The annual rate of deforestation worked out to be 0.35 and 0.78% during 1975–1990 and 1990–2009 respectively. Bamboo forest increased by 24.98% between 1975 and 2009 due to opening up of the forests. Forests in Kokrajhar, Barpeta, Darrang, Sonitpur, and Dhemaji districts in Assam were noticed to be worst-affected while Lower Subansiri, West and East Siang, Dibang Valley, Lohit and Changlang in Arunachal Pradesh were severely affected. Among different forest types, the maximum loss was seen in case of sal forest (37.97% between 1975 and 2009 and is expected to deplete further to 60.39% by 2028. The tropical moist deciduous forest was the next category, which decreased from 5,208.11 km2 to 3,447.28 (33.81% during same period with further chances of depletion to 2,288.81 km2 (56.05% by 2028. It noted progressive loss of forests in the study area between 1975 and 2009 through 1990 and predicted that, unless checked, the area is in for further depletion of the invaluable climax forests in the region, especially sal and moist deciduous forests. The exercise demonstrated high potential of remote sensing and geographic information system for forest ecosystem dynamics assessment and the efficacy of CAMM to predict the forest cover change.

  13. Modeling of Heavy Metal Transformation in Soil Ecosystem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalinichenko, Kira; Nikovskaya, Galina N.

    2017-04-01

    The intensification of industrial activity leads to an increase in heavy metals pollution of soils. In our opinion, sludge from biological treatment of municipal waste water, stabilized under aerobic-anaerobic conditions (commonly known as biosolid), may be considered as concentrate of natural soil. In their chemical, physical and chemical and biological properties these systems are similar gel-like nanocomposites. These contain microorganisms, humic substances, clay, clusters of nanoparticles of heavy metal compounds, and so on involved into heteropolysaccharides matrix. It is known that microorganisms play an important role in the transformation of different nature substances in soil and its health maintenance. The regularities of transformation of heavy metal compounds in soil ecosystem were studied at the model of biosolid. At biosolid swelling its structure changing (gel-sol transition, weakening of coagulation contacts between metal containing nanoparticles, microbial cells and metabolites, loosening and even destroying of the nanocomposite structure) can occur [1, 2]. The promotion of the sludge heterotrophic microbial activities leads to solubilization of heavy metal compounds in the system. The microbiological process can be realized in alcaligeneous or acidogeneous regimes in dependence on the type of carbon source and followed by the synthesis of metabolites with the properties of flocculants and heavy metals extragents [3]. In this case the heavy metals solubilization (bioleaching) in the form of nanoparticles of hydroxycarbonate complexes or water soluble complexes with oxycarbonic acids is observed. Under the action of biosolid microorganisms the heavy metals-oxycarbonic acids complexes can be transformed (catabolised) into nano-sizing heavy metals- hydroxycarbonates complexes. These ecologically friendly complexes and microbial heteropolysaccharides are able to interact with soil colloids, stay in the top soil profile, and improve soil structure due

  14. CCIEA data and model output - California Current Integrated Ecosystem Assessment

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The California Current Integrated Ecosystem Assessment (CCIEA) is a joint project between staff at the NWFSC, SWFSC, NMML, ONMS, and WCRO to provide managers and...

  15. Modelling mass diffusion for a multi-layer sphere immersed in a semi-infinite medium: application to drug delivery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carr, Elliot J; Pontrelli, Giuseppe

    2018-04-12

    We present a general mechanistic model of mass diffusion for a composite sphere placed in a large ambient medium. The multi-layer problem is described by a system of diffusion equations coupled via interlayer boundary conditions such as those imposing a finite mass resistance at the external surface of the sphere. While the work is applicable to the generic problem of heat or mass transfer in a multi-layer sphere, the analysis and results are presented in the context of drug kinetics for desorbing and absorbing spherical microcapsules. We derive an analytical solution for the concentration in the sphere and in the surrounding medium that avoids any artificial truncation at a finite distance. The closed-form solution in each concentric layer is expressed in terms of a suitably-defined inverse Laplace transform that can be evaluated numerically. Concentration profiles and drug mass curves in the spherical layers and in the external environment are presented and the dependency of the solution on the mass transfer coefficient at the surface of the sphere analyzed. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Changes in Arctic and Boreal ecosystems of North America: Integrating Recent Results from the Field, Remote Sensing and Ecosystem Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goetz, S. J.; Rogers, B. M.; Mack, M. C.; Goulden, M.; Pastick, N. J.; Berner, L. T.; Fisher, J.

    2017-12-01

    The Arctic and boreal forest biomes have global significance in terms of climate feedbacks associated with land surface interactions with the atmosphere. Changes in Arctic tundra and boreal forest ecosystem productivity and fire disturbance feedbacks have been well documented in recent years, but findings are often only locally relevant and are sometimes inconsistent among research teams. Part of these inconsistencies lie in utilization of different data sets and time periods considered. Integrated approaches are thus needed to adequately address changes in these ecosystems in order to assess consistency and variability of change, as well as ecosystem vulnerability and resiliency across spatial and temporal scales. Ultimately this can best be accomplished via multiple lines of evidence including remote sensing, field measurements and various types of data-constrained models. We will discuss some recent results integrating multiple lines of evidence for directional ecosystem change in the Arctic and boreal forest biomes of North America. There is increasing evidence for widespread spatial and temporal variability in Arctic and boreal ecosystem productivity changes that are strongly influenced by cycles of changing fire disturbance severity and its longer-term implications (i.e legacy effects). Integrated, multi-approach research, like that currently underway as part of the NASA-led Arctic Boreal Vulnerability Experiment (above.nasa.gov), is an effective way to capture the complex mechanisms that drive patterns and directionality of ecosystem structure and function, and ultimately determine feedbacks to environmental change, particularly in the context of global climate change. Additional ongoing ABoVE research will improve our understanding of the consequences of environmental changes underway, as well as increase our confidence in making projections of the ecosystem responses, vulnerability and resilience to change. ABoVE will also build a lasting legacy of

  17. Modeled responses of terrestrial ecosystems to elevated atmospheric CO2: a comparison of simulations by the biogeochemistry models of the Vegetation/Ecosystem Modeling and Analysis Project (VEMAP).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, Yude; Melillo, Jerry M; McGuire, A David; Kicklighter, David W; Pitelka, Louis F; Hibbard, Kathy; Pierce, Lars L; Running, Steven W; Ojima, Dennis S; Parton, William J; Schimel, David S

    1998-04-01

    Although there is a great deal of information concerning responses to increases in atmospheric CO 2 at the tissue and plant levels, there are substantially fewer studies that have investigated ecosystem-level responses in the context of integrated carbon, water, and nutrient cycles. Because our understanding of ecosystem responses to elevated CO 2 is incomplete, modeling is a tool that can be used to investigate the role of plant and soil interactions in the response of terrestrial ecosystems to elevated CO 2 . In this study, we analyze the responses of net primary production (NPP) to doubled CO 2 from 355 to 710 ppmv among three biogeochemistry models in the Vegetation/Ecosystem Modeling and Analysis Project (VEMAP): BIOME-BGC (BioGeochemical Cycles), Century, and the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM). For the conterminous United States, doubled atmospheric CO 2 causes NPP to increase by 5% in Century, 8% in TEM, and 11% in BIOME-BGC. Multiple regression analyses between the NPP response to doubled CO 2 and the mean annual temperature and annual precipitation of biomes or grid cells indicate that there are negative relationships between precipitation and the response of NPP to doubled CO 2 for all three models. In contrast, there are different relationships between temperature and the response of NPP to doubled CO 2 for the three models: there is a negative relationship in the responses of BIOME-BGC, no relationship in the responses of Century, and a positive relationship in the responses of TEM. In BIOME-BGC, the NPP response to doubled CO 2 is controlled by the change in transpiration associated with reduced leaf conductance to water vapor. This change affects soil water, then leaf area development and, finally, NPP. In Century, the response of NPP to doubled CO 2 is controlled by changes in decomposition rates associated with increased soil moisture that results from reduced evapotranspiration. This change affects nitrogen availability for plants, which

  18. Atlantis Modeled Output Data for the Coral Reef Ecosystems of Guam

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A proof-of-concept Guam Atlantis Coral Reef Ecosystem Model has been developed and an added coral module to the Atlantis framework has been validated. The model is...

  19. Multi-layer membrane model for mass transport in a direct ethanol fuel cell using an alkaline anion exchange membrane

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bahrami, Hafez; Faghri, Amir

    2012-11-01

    A one-dimensional, isothermal, single-phase model is presented to investigate the mass transport in a direct ethanol fuel cell incorporating an alkaline anion exchange membrane. The electrochemistry is analytically solved and the closed-form solution is provided for two limiting cases assuming Tafel expressions for both oxygen reduction and ethanol oxidation. A multi-layer membrane model is proposed to properly account for the diffusive and electroosmotic transport of ethanol through the membrane. The fundamental differences in fuel crossover for positive and negative electroosmotic drag coefficients are discussed. It is found that ethanol crossover is significantly reduced upon using an alkaline anion exchange membrane instead of a proton exchange membrane, especially at current densities higher than 500 A m

  20. Modeling of gamma ray energy-absorption buildup factors for thermoluminescent dosimetric materials using multilayer perceptron neural network

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kucuk, Nil; Manohara, S.R.; Hanagodimath, S.M.

    2013-01-01

    In this work, multilayered perceptron neural networks (MLPNNs) were presented for the computation of the gamma-ray energy absorption buildup factors (BA) of seven thermoluminescent dosimetric (TLD) materials [LiF, BeO, Na2B4O7, CaSO4, Li2B4O7, KMgF3, Ca3(PO4)2] in the energy region 0.015–15Me......V, and for penetration depths up to 10 mfp (mean-free-path). The MLPNNs have been trained by a Levenberg–Marquardt learning algorithm. The developed model is in 99% agreement with the ANSI/ANS-6.4.3 standard data set. Furthermore, the model is fast and does not require tremendous computational efforts. The estimated BA...

  1. Attenuation characteristics of monolayer graphene by Pi-and T-networks modeling of multilayer microstrip line

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Pulkit Sharma; Sumit Pratap Singh; Kamlesh Patel

    2017-01-01

    The impedances of Pi-and T-networks are obtained from the measured S-parameters of the multilayer microstrip line by modeling as an attenuator.The changes in impedances have been analyzed for the properties of various superstrates at the microwave ranges.With graphene on glass and graphene on quartz loadings,the impedances have increased and shifted towards lower frequency more in Pi-network than T-network modeling.This shift has become more prominent at higher frequency for the graphene on glass than graphene on quartz.A little increase in attenuation is found for graphene on glass or quartz than bare glass and quartz.The present study can be extended to obtain attenuation characteristic of any thin film by simple experimental method in the microwave frequencies.

  2. Characterization of thin-film multilayers using magnetization curves and modeling of low-angle X-ray diffraction data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lane, M. [Emory & Henry College, VA (United States); Chaiken, A.; Michel, R.P. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab., CA (United States)

    1994-12-01

    We have characterized thin-film multilayers grown by ion-beam sputtering using magnetization curves and modeling of low-angle x-ray diffraction data. In our films, we use ferromagnetic layer = Co, Fe, and NiFe and spacer layer = Si, Ge, FeSi{sub 2}, and CoSi{sub 2}. We have studied the effects of (1) deposition conditions; (2) thickness of layers; (3) different layer materials; and (4) annealing. We find higher magnetization in films grown at 1000V rather than 500V and in films with spacer layers of 50{angstrom} rather than 100{angstrom}. We find higher coercivity in films with cobalt grown on germanium rather than silicon, metal grown on gold underlayers rather than on glass substrates, and when using thinner spacer layers. Finally, modeling reveals that films grown with disilicide layers are more thermally stable than films grown with silicon spacer layers.

  3. Application of eco-exergy for assessment of ecosystem health and development of structurally dynamic models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhang, J.; Gürkan, Zeren; Jørgensen, S.E.

    2010-01-01

    are developed using eco-exergy as the goal function, have been applied in explaining and exploring ecosystem properties and changes in community structure driven by biotic and abiotic factors. In this paper, we review the application of eco-exergy for the assessment of ecosystem health and development......Eco-exergy has been widely used in the assessment of ecosystem health, parameter estimations, calibrations, validations and prognoses. It offers insights into the understanding of ecosystem dynamics and disturbance-cl riven changes. Particularly, structurally dynamic models (SDMs), which...

  4. Modelling the growth of Populus species using Ecosystem Demography (ED) model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, D.; Lebauer, D. S.; Feng, X.; Dietze, M. C.

    2010-12-01

    Hybrid poplar plantations are an important source being evaluated for biomass production. Effective management of such plantations requires adequate growth and yield models. The Ecosystem Demography model (ED) makes predictions about the large scales of interest in above- and belowground ecosystem structure and the fluxes of carbon and water from a description of the fine-scale physiological processes. In this study, we used a workflow management tool, the Predictive Ecophysiological Carbon flux Analyzer (PECAn), to integrate literature data, field measurement and the ED model to provide predictions of ecosystem functioning. Parameters for the ED ensemble runs were sampled from the posterior distribution of ecophysiological traits of Populus species compiled from the literature using a Bayesian meta-analysis approach. Sensitivity analysis was performed to identify the parameters which contribute the most to the uncertainties of the ED model output. Model emulation techniques were used to update parameter posterior distributions using field-observed data in northern Wisconsin hybrid poplar plantations. Model results were evaluated with 5-year field-observed data in a hybrid poplar plantation at New Franklin, MO. ED was then used to predict the spatial variability of poplar yield in the coterminous United States (United States minus Alaska and Hawaii). Sensitivity analysis showed that root respiration, dark respiration, growth respiration, stomatal slope and specific leaf area contribute the most to the uncertainty, which suggests that our field measurements and data collection should focus on these parameters. The ED model successfully captured the inter-annual and spatial variability of the yield of poplar. Analyses in progress with the ED model focus on evaluating the ecosystem services of short-rotation woody plantations, such as impacts on soil carbon storage, water use, and nutrient retention.

  5. Study on the ecosystem construction of using ecopath model in inland waterway

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Junjie; Bai, Jing; Zhang, Lu; Wang, Ning; Shou, Youping

    2018-04-01

    In this paper, Ecopath with Ecosim 5.1 software is used to simulate the constructed water ecosystem of inland waterway. According to the characteristics of feeding relationship, the ecopath model of water ecosystem is divided into seven functional groups: phytoplankton, hydrophyte, zooplankton, herbivorous, omnivorous, polychaetes and detritus. By analyzing the important ecological parameters of the ecosystem, such as biomass, biomass / biomass, consumption / biomass, trophic level and ecological nutrient conversion efficiency, the software integrates the energy flow process of the ecosystem, the ratio of the total net primary production and the sum of all respiratory flows is 1.314, it’s indicating that the ecosystem is equilibrium. The research method of this paper can be widely used to evaluate the stability of the ecosystem of the domestic river.

  6. Multilayer perceptron neural network-based approach for modeling phycocyanin pigment concentrations: case study from lower Charles River buoy, USA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heddam, Salim

    2016-09-01

    This paper proposes multilayer perceptron neural network (MLPNN) to predict phycocyanin (PC) pigment using water quality variables as predictor. In the proposed model, four water quality variables that are water temperature, dissolved oxygen, pH, and specific conductance were selected as the inputs for the MLPNN model, and the PC as the output. To demonstrate the capability and the usefulness of the MLPNN model, a total of 15,849 data measured at 15-min (15 min) intervals of time are used for the development of the model. The data are collected at the lower Charles River buoy, and available from the US Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA). For comparison purposes, a multiple linear regression (MLR) model that was frequently used for predicting water quality variables in previous studies is also built. The performances of the models are evaluated using a set of widely used statistical indices. The performance of the MLPNN and MLR models is compared with the measured data. The obtained results show that (i) the all proposed MLPNN models are more accurate than the MLR models and (ii) the results obtained are very promising and encouraging for the development of phycocyanin-predictive models.

  7. Examining Ecological and Ecosystem Level Impacts of Aquatic Invasive Species in Lake Michigan Using An Ecosystem Productivity Model, LM-Eco

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ecological and ecosystem-level impacts of aquatic invasive species in Lake Michigan were examined using the Lake Michigan Ecosystem Model (LM-Eco). The LM-Eco model includes a detailed description of trophic levels and their interactions within the lower food web of Lake Michiga...

  8. Using FLUXNET data to improve models of springtime vegetation activity onset in forest ecosystems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Melaas, E.; Richardson, A.; Friedl, M.; Dragoni, D.; Gough, C.; Herbst, M.; Montagnani, L.; Moors, E.J.

    2013-01-01

    Vegetation phenology is sensitive to climate change and variability, and is a first order control on the carbon budget of forest ecosystems. Robust representation of phenology is therefore needed to support model-based projections of how climate change will affect ecosystem function. A variety of

  9. Ecosystem modelling in the Forsmark area. Proceedings from two workshops modelling Eckarfjaerden and Bolundsfjaerden catchment areas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lindborg, Tobias; Kautsky, Ulrik [eds.

    2004-11-01

    The siting program for a repository of spent fuel currently collects large set of data from the surface ecosystem, as well as from the geosphere. The data collected at the sites will be used for various purposes, mainly for the safety assessment for the repository and for environmental impact assessment. The safety assessment of the encapsulation plant also includes an assessment of the postclosure of the repository (SRCAN) at the two sites of current interest for a repository. To show important methods on how data from the sites should be used in a safety assessment, a report for methods concerning SRCAN will be produced. This report is a first step in showing how the site data will be used to understand the function and dynamics of the ecosystems and how it may be translated in various dose models. A more extensive report from The SurfaceNet taskforce is presented in SKB-R--05-01. This report is based on two workshops held in Grisslehamn, Uppland October 20-23, 2003 and in Marholmen, Uppland April 16-19, 2004. Participants from the site investigation program, the analysis group, safety assessment and research attended the workshops. The groups worked intensively for 3 full days respectively, and achieved the major findings in this report. The two workshops had approximately the same approach, although Marholmen was more focused on the terrestrial ecosystems and Grisslehamn on aquatic systems. Besides the major aim of the workshops, to examine function and dynamics of ecosystems translated into dose modelling, another purpose was to communicate the reasons for the sampling programmes, to train new resources and to get plenty of undisturbed time to generate a large amount of creative work. It also got the important role of increased understanding between different scientific disciplines. High quality data is important for validating the dose- and ecosystem models.

  10. Ecosystem modelling in the Forsmark area. Proceedings from two workshops modelling Eckarfjaerden and Bolundsfjaerden catchment areas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lindborg, Tobias; Kautsky, Ulrik

    2004-11-01

    The siting program for a repository of spent fuel currently collects large set of data from the surface ecosystem, as well as from the geosphere. The data collected at the sites will be used for various purposes, mainly for the safety assessment for the repository and for environmental impact assessment. The safety assessment of the encapsulation plant also includes an assessment of the postclosure of the repository (SRCAN) at the two sites of current interest for a repository. To show important methods on how data from the sites should be used in a safety assessment, a report for methods concerning SRCAN will be produced. This report is a first step in showing how the site data will be used to understand the function and dynamics of the ecosystems and how it may be translated in various dose models. A more extensive report from The SurfaceNet taskforce is presented in SKB-R--05-01. This report is based on two workshops held in Grisslehamn, Uppland October 20-23, 2003 and in Marholmen, Uppland April 16-19, 2004. Participants from the site investigation program, the analysis group, safety assessment and research attended the workshops. The groups worked intensively for 3 full days respectively, and achieved the major findings in this report. The two workshops had approximately the same approach, although Marholmen was more focused on the terrestrial ecosystems and Grisslehamn on aquatic systems. Besides the major aim of the workshops, to examine function and dynamics of ecosystems translated into dose modelling, another purpose was to communicate the reasons for the sampling programmes, to train new resources and to get plenty of undisturbed time to generate a large amount of creative work. It also got the important role of increased understanding between different scientific disciplines. High quality data is important for validating the dose- and ecosystem models

  11. Ecosystem models. Volume 2. November, 1975--1977 (a bibliography with abstracts). Report for Nov 1975--Nov 1977

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harrison, E.A.

    1978-10-01

    The preparation and use of ecosystem models are covered in this bibliography of Federally-funded research. Models for marine biology, wildlife, plants, water pollution, microorganisms, food chains, radioactive substances, limnology, and diseases as related to ecosystems are included

  12. Ecosystem models. Volume 3. November, 1977--October, 1978 (a bibliography with abstracts). Report for Nov 1977--Oct 1978

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harrison, E.A.

    1978-10-01

    The preparation and use of ecosystem models are covered in this bibliography of Federally-funded research. Models for marine biology, wildlife, plants, water pollution, microorganisms, food chains, radioactive substances, limnology, and diseases as related to ecosystems are included

  13. A hierarchical analysis of terrestrial ecosystem model Biome-BGC: Equilibrium analysis and model calibration

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thornton, Peter E [ORNL; Wang, Weile [ORNL; Law, Beverly E. [Oregon State University; Nemani, Ramakrishna R [NASA Ames Research Center

    2009-01-01

    The increasing complexity of ecosystem models represents a major difficulty in tuning model parameters and analyzing simulated results. To address this problem, this study develops a hierarchical scheme that simplifies the Biome-BGC model into three functionally cascaded tiers and analyzes them sequentially. The first-tier model focuses on leaf-level ecophysiological processes; it simulates evapotranspiration and photosynthesis with prescribed leaf area index (LAI). The restriction on LAI is then lifted in the following two model tiers, which analyze how carbon and nitrogen is cycled at the whole-plant level (the second tier) and in all litter/soil pools (the third tier) to dynamically support the prescribed canopy. In particular, this study analyzes the steady state of these two model tiers by a set of equilibrium equations that are derived from Biome-BGC algorithms and are based on the principle of mass balance. Instead of spinning-up the model for thousands of climate years, these equations are able to estimate carbon/nitrogen stocks and fluxes of the target (steady-state) ecosystem directly from the results obtained by the first-tier model. The model hierarchy is examined with model experiments at four AmeriFlux sites. The results indicate that the proposed scheme can effectively calibrate Biome-BGC to simulate observed fluxes of evapotranspiration and photosynthesis; and the carbon/nitrogen stocks estimated by the equilibrium analysis approach are highly consistent with the results of model simulations. Therefore, the scheme developed in this study may serve as a practical guide to calibrate/analyze Biome-BGC; it also provides an efficient way to solve the problem of model spin-up, especially for applications over large regions. The same methodology may help analyze other similar ecosystem models as well.

  14. Tools and methods for evaluating and refining alternative futures for coastal ecosystem management—the Puget Sound Ecosystem Portfolio Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byrd, Kristin B.; Kreitler, Jason R.; Labiosa, William B.

    2011-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey Puget Sound Ecosystem Portfolio Model (PSEPM) is a decision-support tool that uses scenarios to evaluate where, when, and to what extent future population growth, urban growth, and shoreline development may threaten the Puget Sound nearshore environment. This tool was designed to be used iteratively in a workshop setting in which experts, stakeholders, and decisionmakers discuss consequences to the Puget Sound nearshore within an alternative-futures framework. The PSEPM presents three possible futures of the nearshore by analyzing three growth scenarios developed out to 2060: Status Quo—continuation of current trends; Managed Growth—adoption of an aggressive set of land-use management policies; and Unconstrained Growth—relaxation of land-use restrictions. The PSEPM focuses on nearshore environments associated with barrier and bluff-backed beaches—the most dominant shoreforms in Puget Sound—which represent 50 percent of Puget Sound shorelines by length. This report provides detailed methodologies for development of three submodels within the PSEPM—the Shellfish Pollution Model, the Beach Armoring Index, and the Recreation Visits Model. Results from the PSEPM identify where and when future changes to nearshore ecosystems and ecosystem services will likely occur within the three growth scenarios. Model outputs include maps that highlight shoreline sections where nearshore resources may be at greater risk from upland land-use changes. The background discussed in this report serves to document and supplement model results displayed on the PSEPM Web site located at http://geography.wr.usgs.gov/pugetSound/.

  15. Modeling and simulation of defects detection in conductive multi-layered pieces by the eddy current technique

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bennoud, S; Zergoug, M

    2015-01-01

    It has been shown that the eddy current method is one of the most effective techniques for the detection and characterization of surface and near-surface defects in conductive mediums especially in aluminum alloy. It is one of the most applied methods in industries which require a maximum of reliability and security (aerospace, aeronautics, nuclear, Etc). In this study, a code to solve electromagnetic problems by employing the finite element method is developed. The suggested model can simulate the probe response to the presence of a defect hidden in a multi-layered structure or a riveted structure on aluminum alloy. The developed code is based on the discretization in three dimensions of the Maxwell's equations in harmonic mode by the finite element method based on the combined potential formulations. That will enable us to interpret the results, to present them in graphical form and to carry out simulations for various applications

  16. An integral test of FLUKA nuclear models with 160 MeV proton beams in multi-layer Faraday cups

    CERN Document Server

    Rinaldi, I; Parodi, K; Ferrari, A; Sala, P; Mairani, A

    2011-01-01

    Monte Carlo (MC) codes are useful tools to simulate the complex processes of proton beam interactions with matter. In proton therapy, nuclear reactions influence the dose distribution. Therefore, the validation of nuclear models adopted in MC codes is a critical requisite for their use in this field. A simple integral test can be performed using a multi-layer Faraday cup (MLFC). This method allows separation of the nuclear and atomic interaction processes, which are responsible for secondary particle emission and the finite primary proton range, respectively. In this work, the propagation of 160 MeV protons stopping in two MLFCs made of polyethylene and copper has been simulated by the FLUKA MC code. The calculations have been performed with and without secondary electron emission and transport, as well as charge sharing in the dielectric layers. Previous results with other codes neglected those two effects. The impact of this approximation has been investigated and found to be relevant only in the proximity ...

  17. The evolution of ecosystem ascendency in a complex systems based model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brinck, Katharina; Jensen, Henrik Jeldtoft

    2017-09-07

    General patterns in ecosystem development can shed light on driving forces behind ecosystem formation and recovery and have been of long interest. In recent years, the need for integrative and process oriented approaches to capture ecosystem growth, development and organisation, as well as the scope of information theory as a descriptive tool has been addressed from various sides. However data collection of ecological network flows is difficult and tedious and comprehensive models are lacking. We use a hierarchical version of the Tangled Nature Model of evolutionary ecology to study the relationship between structure, flow and organisation in model ecosystems, their development over evolutionary time scales and their relation to ecosystem stability. Our findings support the validity of ecosystem ascendency as a meaningful measure of ecosystem organisation, which increases over evolutionary time scales and significantly drops during periods of disturbance. The results suggest a general trend towards both higher integrity and increased stability driven by functional and structural ecosystem coadaptation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Modeling Hawaiian ecosystem degradation due to invasive plants under current and future climates.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adam E Vorsino

    Full Text Available Occupation of native ecosystems by invasive plant species alters their structure and/or function. In Hawaii, a subset of introduced plants is regarded as extremely harmful due to competitive ability, ecosystem modification, and biogeochemical habitat degradation. By controlling this subset of highly invasive ecosystem modifiers, conservation managers could significantly reduce native ecosystem degradation. To assess the invasibility of vulnerable native ecosystems, we selected a proxy subset of these invasive plants and developed robust ensemble species distribution models to define their respective potential distributions. The combinations of all species models using both binary and continuous habitat suitability projections resulted in estimates of species richness and diversity that were subsequently used to define an invasibility metric. The invasibility metric was defined from species distribution models with 0.8; True Skill Statistic >0.75 as evaluated per species. Invasibility was further projected onto a 2100 Hawaii regional climate change scenario to assess the change in potential habitat degradation. The distribution defined by the invasibility metric delineates areas of known and potential invasibility under current climate conditions and, when projected into the future, estimates potential reductions in native ecosystem extent due to climate-driven invasive incursion. We have provided the code used to develop these metrics to facilitate their wider use (Code S1. This work will help determine the vulnerability of native-dominated ecosystems to the combined threats of climate change and invasive species, and thus help prioritize ecosystem and species management actions.

  19. Modeling Hawaiian ecosystem degradation due to invasive plants under current and future climates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vorsino, Adam E.; Fortini, Lucas B.; Amidon, Fred A.; Miller, Stephen E.; Jacobi, James D.; Price, Jonathan P.; `Ohukani`ohi`a Gon, Sam; Koob, Gregory A.

    2014-01-01

    Occupation of native ecosystems by invasive plant species alters their structure and/or function. In Hawaii, a subset of introduced plants is regarded as extremely harmful due to competitive ability, ecosystem modification, and biogeochemical habitat degradation. By controlling this subset of highly invasive ecosystem modifiers, conservation managers could significantly reduce native ecosystem degradation. To assess the invasibility of vulnerable native ecosystems, we selected a proxy subset of these invasive plants and developed robust ensemble species distribution models to define their respective potential distributions. The combinations of all species models using both binary and continuous habitat suitability projections resulted in estimates of species richness and diversity that were subsequently used to define an invasibility metric. The invasibility metric was defined from species distribution models with 0.8; True Skill Statistic >0.75) as evaluated per species. Invasibility was further projected onto a 2100 Hawaii regional climate change scenario to assess the change in potential habitat degradation. The distribution defined by the invasibility metric delineates areas of known and potential invasibility under current climate conditions and, when projected into the future, estimates potential reductions in native ecosystem extent due to climate-driven invasive incursion. We have provided the code used to develop these metrics to facilitate their wider use (Code S1). This work will help determine the vulnerability of native-dominated ecosystems to the combined threats of climate change and invasive species, and thus help prioritize ecosystem and species management actions.

  20. Bioenergy Ecosystem Land-Use Modelling and Field Flux Trial

    Science.gov (United States)

    McNamara, Niall; Bottoms, Emily; Donnison, Iain; Dondini, Marta; Farrar, Kerrie; Finch, Jon; Harris, Zoe; Ineson, Phil; Keane, Ben; Massey, Alice; McCalmont, Jon; Morison, James; Perks, Mike; Pogson, Mark; Rowe, Rebecca; Smith, Pete; Sohi, Saran; Tallis, Mat; Taylor, Gail; Yamulki, Sirwan

    2013-04-01

    loss after land use change at 100 fieldsites which encapsulate a range of UK climates and soil types. Our overall objective is to use our measured data to parameterise and validate the models that we will use to predict the implications of bioenergy crop deployment in the UK up to 2050. The resultant output will be a meta-model which will help facilitate decision making on the sustainable development of bioenergy in the UK, with potential deployment in other temperate climates around the world. Here we report on the outcome of the first of three years of work. This work is based on the Ecosystem Land Use Modelling & Soil Carbon GHG Flux Trial (ELUM) project, which was commissioned and funded by the Energy Technologies Institute (ETI). Don et al. (2012) Land-use change to bioenergy production in Europe: implications for the greenhouse gas balance and soil carbon. GCB Bioenergy 4, 372-379.

  1. How models can support ecosystem-based management of coral reefs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weijerman, Mariska; Fulton, Elizabeth A.; Janssen, Annette B. G.; Kuiper, Jan J.; Leemans, Rik; Robson, Barbara J.; van de Leemput, Ingrid A.; Mooij, Wolf M.

    2015-11-01

    Despite the importance of coral reef ecosystems to the social and economic welfare of coastal communities, the condition of these marine ecosystems have generally degraded over the past decades. With an increased knowledge of coral reef ecosystem processes and a rise in computer power, dynamic models are useful tools in assessing the synergistic effects of local and global stressors on ecosystem functions. We review representative approaches for dynamically modeling coral reef ecosystems and categorize them as minimal, intermediate and complex models. The categorization was based on the leading principle for model development and their level of realism and process detail. This review aims to improve the knowledge of concurrent approaches in coral reef ecosystem modeling and highlights the importance of choosing an appropriate approach based on the type of question(s) to be answered. We contend that minimal and intermediate models are generally valuable tools to assess the response of key states to main stressors and, hence, contribute to understanding ecological surprises. As has been shown in freshwater resources management, insight into these conceptual relations profoundly influences how natural resource managers perceive their systems and how they manage ecosystem recovery. We argue that adaptive resource management requires integrated thinking and decision support, which demands a diversity of modeling approaches. Integration can be achieved through complimentary use of models or through integrated models that systemically combine all relevant aspects in one model. Such whole-of-system models can be useful tools for quantitatively evaluating scenarios. These models allow an assessment of the interactive effects of multiple stressors on various, potentially conflicting, management objectives. All models simplify reality and, as such, have their weaknesses. While minimal models lack multidimensionality, system models are likely difficult to interpret as they

  2. Ecosystem Jenga!

    Science.gov (United States)

    Umphlett, Natalie; Brosius, Tierney; Laungani, Ramesh; Rousseau, Joe; Leslie-Pelecky, Diandra L.

    2009-01-01

    To give students a tangible model of an ecosystem and have them experience what could happen if a component of that ecosystem were removed; the authors developed a hands-on, inquiry-based activity that visually demonstrates the concept of a delicately balanced ecosystem through a modification of the popular game Jenga. This activity can be…

  3. Modelling the dynamic interactions between food production and ecosystem services

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Duku, C.

    2017-01-01

    Given the high levels of food insecurity and the loss of vital ecosystem services associated with deforestation, countries in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) face a major dilemma. How can they produce enough food in a changing climate to feed an increasing population while protecting natural forests and

  4. Toxicological evaluation of parathion and azinphosmethyl in freshwater model ecosystems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dortland, R.J.

    1980-01-01

    A study was made of the possible hazards of long-term exposure of freshwater ecosystems to low (< 1 mg m -3) concentrations of organophosphorus insecticides. Range-finding, acute and sub-acute (3 weeks) laboratory toxicity trials were

  5. Modeling Heterogeneous Fishing Fleet in an Ecosystem Based Management Context

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hutniczak, Barbara

    The rapid pace of climate change and increased human disturbance of ecosystems in the Arctic is bringing urgency to concern over non-native species introductions and their potential threats to the marine environment and its economic productivity, where before environmental conditions served...

  6. Convergence and Divergence in a Multi-Model Ensemble of Terrestrial Ecosystem Models in North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dungan, J. L.; Wang, W.; Hashimoto, H.; Michaelis, A.; Milesi, C.; Ichii, K.; Nemani, R. R.

    2009-12-01

    In support of NACP, we are conducting an ensemble modeling exercise using the Terrestrial Observation and Prediction System (TOPS) to evaluate uncertainties among ecosystem models, satellite datasets, and in-situ measurements. The models used in the experiment include public-domain versions of Biome-BGC, LPJ, TOPS-BGC, and CASA, driven by a consistent set of climate fields for North America at 8km resolution and daily/monthly time steps over the period of 1982-2006. The reference datasets include MODIS Gross Primary Production (GPP) and Net Primary Production (NPP) products, Fluxnet measurements, and other observational data. The simulation results and the reference datasets are consistently processed and systematically compared in the climate (temperature-precipitation) space; in particular, an alternative to the Taylor diagram is developed to facilitate model-data intercomparisons in multi-dimensional space. The key findings of this study indicate that: the simulated GPP/NPP fluxes are in general agreement with observations over forests, but are biased low (underestimated) over non-forest types; large uncertainties of biomass and soil carbon stocks are found among the models (and reference datasets), often induced by seemingly “small” differences in model parameters and implementation details; the simulated Net Ecosystem Production (NEP) mainly responds to non-respiratory disturbances (e.g. fire) in the models and therefore is difficult to compare with flux data; and the seasonality and interannual variability of NEP varies significantly among models and reference datasets. These findings highlight the problem inherent in relying on only one modeling approach to map surface carbon fluxes and emphasize the pressing necessity of expanded and enhanced monitoring systems to narrow critical structural and parametrical uncertainties among ecosystem models.

  7. Urban ecosystem modeling and global change: Potential for rational urban management and emissions mitigation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Shaoqing; Chen, Bin; Fath, Brian D.

    2014-01-01

    Urbanization is a strong and extensive driver that causes environmental pollution and climate change from local to global scale. Modeling cities as ecosystems has been initiated by a wide range of scientists as a key to addressing challenging problems concomitant with urbanization. In this paper, ‘urban ecosystem modeling (UEM)’ is defined in an inter-disciplinary context to acquire a broad perception of urban ecological properties and their interactions with global change. Furthermore, state-of-the-art models of urban ecosystems are reviewed, categorized as top-down models (including materials/energy-oriented models and structure-oriented models), bottom-up models (including land use-oriented models and infrastructure-oriented models), or hybrid models thereof. Based on the review of UEM studies, a future framework for explicit UEM is proposed based the integration of UEM approaches of different scales, guiding more rational urban management and efficient emissions mitigation. - Highlights: • Urban ecosystems modeling (UEM) is defined in an interdisciplinary context. • State-of-the-art models for UEM are critically reviewed and compared. • An integrated framework for explicit UEM is proposed under global change. - State-of-the-art models of urban ecosystem modeling (UEM) are reviewed for rational urban management and emissions mitigation

  8. Magnetic multilayer structure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herget, Philipp; O'Sullivan, Eugene J.; Romankiw, Lubomyr T.; Wang, Naigang; Webb, Bucknell C.

    2016-07-05

    A mechanism is provided for an integrated laminated magnetic device. A substrate and a multilayer stack structure form the device. The multilayer stack structure includes alternating magnetic layers and diode structures formed on the substrate. Each magnetic layer in the multilayer stack structure is separated from another magnetic layer in the multilayer stack structure by a diode structure.

  9. Modeling the Ecosystem Services Provided by Trees in Urban Ecosystems: Using Biome-BGC to Improve i-Tree Eco

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Molly E.; McGroddy, Megan; Spence, Caitlin; Flake, Leah; Sarfraz, Amna; Nowak, David J.; Milesi, Cristina

    2012-01-01

    As the world becomes increasingly urban, the need to quantify the effect of trees in urban environments on energy usage, air pollution, local climate and nutrient run-off has increased. By identifying, quantifying and valuing the ecological activity that provides services in urban areas, stronger policies and improved quality of life for urban residents can be obtained. Here we focus on two radically different models that can be used to characterize urban forests. The i-Tree Eco model (formerly UFORE model) quantifies ecosystem services (e.g., air pollution removal, carbon storage) and values derived from urban trees based on field measurements of trees and local ancillary data sets. Biome-BGC (Biome BioGeoChemistry) is used to simulate the fluxes and storage of carbon, water, and nitrogen in natural environments. This paper compares i-Tree Eco's methods to those of Biome-BGC, which estimates the fluxes and storage of energy, carbon, water and nitrogen for vegetation and soil components of the ecosystem. We describe the two models and their differences in the way they calculate similar properties, with a focus on carbon and nitrogen. Finally, we discuss the implications of further integration of these two communities for land managers such as those in Maryland.

  10. Are more complex physiological models of forest ecosystems better choices for plot and regional predictions?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wenchi Jin; Hong S. He; Frank R. Thompson

    2016-01-01

    Process-based forest ecosystem models vary from simple physiological, complex physiological, to hybrid empirical-physiological models. Previous studies indicate that complex models provide the best prediction at plot scale with a temporal extent of less than 10 years, however, it is largely untested as to whether complex models outperform the other two types of models...

  11. QUANTIFYING AND MODELING THE RISK OF DISTURBANCE TO ECOSYSTEMS CAUSED BY INVASIVE SPECIES

    Science.gov (United States)

    Invasive species are biological pollutants that threaten ecosystem health. Identifying the mechanisms of invasive and developing predictive models of invasion will be critical to developing risk management strategies for limiting the economic and environmental damage caused by i...

  12. Ecosystem models (a bibliography with abstracts). Report for 1964-Nov 1975

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harrison, E.A.

    1975-11-01

    The bibliography contains abstracts which cover marine biology, natural resources, wildlife, plants, water pollution, microorganisms, food chains, radioactive substances, limnology, and diseases as related to ecosystem models. Contains 214 abstracts

  13. A compartment model of plutonium dynamics in a deciduous forest ecosystem

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garten, C.T. Jr.; Gardner, R.H.; Dahlman, R.C.

    1978-01-01

    A linear compartment donor-controlled model was designed to describe and simulate the behaviour of plutonium ( 239 , 240 Pu) in a contaminated deciduous forest ecosystem at Oak Ridge, Tennessee. At steady states predicted by the model, less than 0.25% of the Pu in the ecosystem resides in forest biota. Soil is the major repository of Pu in the forest, and reciprocal exchanges of Pu between soil and litter or soil and tree roots were dominant transfers affecting the ecosystem distribution of Pu. Variation in predicted steady state amounts of Pu in the forest, given variability in the model parameters, indicated that ones ability to develop reliable models of Pu transport in ecosystems will improve with greater precision in data from natural environments and a better understanding of sources of variation in Pu data. (author)

  14. A multi-objective constraint-based approach for modeling genome-scale microbial ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Budinich, Marko; Bourdon, Jérémie; Larhlimi, Abdelhalim; Eveillard, Damien

    2017-01-01

    Interplay within microbial communities impacts ecosystems on several scales, and elucidation of the consequent effects is a difficult task in ecology. In particular, the integration of genome-scale data within quantitative models of microbial ecosystems remains elusive. This study advocates the use of constraint-based modeling to build predictive models from recent high-resolution -omics datasets. Following recent studies that have demonstrated the accuracy of constraint-based models (CBMs) for simulating single-strain metabolic networks, we sought to study microbial ecosystems as a combination of single-strain metabolic networks that exchange nutrients. This study presents two multi-objective extensions of CBMs for modeling communities: multi-objective flux balance analysis (MO-FBA) and multi-objective flux variability analysis (MO-FVA). Both methods were applied to a hot spring mat model ecosystem. As a result, multiple trade-offs between nutrients and growth rates, as well as thermodynamically favorable relative abundances at community level, were emphasized. We expect this approach to be used for integrating genomic information in microbial ecosystems. Following models will provide insights about behaviors (including diversity) that take place at the ecosystem scale.

  15. A multi-objective constraint-based approach for modeling genome-scale microbial ecosystems.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marko Budinich

    Full Text Available Interplay within microbial communities impacts ecosystems on several scales, and elucidation of the consequent effects is a difficult task in ecology. In particular, the integration of genome-scale data within quantitative models of microbial ecosystems remains elusive. This study advocates the use of constraint-based modeling to build predictive models from recent high-resolution -omics datasets. Following recent studies that have demonstrated the accuracy of constraint-based models (CBMs for simulating single-strain metabolic networks, we sought to study microbial ecosystems as a combination of single-strain metabolic networks that exchange nutrients. This study presents two multi-objective extensions of CBMs for modeling communities: multi-objective flux balance analysis (MO-FBA and multi-objective flux variability analysis (MO-FVA. Both methods were applied to a hot spring mat model ecosystem. As a result, multiple trade-offs between nutrients and growth rates, as well as thermodynamically favorable relative abundances at community level, were emphasized. We expect this approach to be used for integrating genomic information in microbial ecosystems. Following models will provide insights about behaviors (including diversity that take place at the ecosystem scale.

  16. BIOMAP A Daily Time Step, Mechanistic Model for the Study of Ecosystem Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wells, J. R.; Neilson, R. P.; Drapek, R. J.; Pitts, B. S.

    2010-12-01

    BIOMAP simulates competition between two Plant Functional Types (PFT) at any given point in the conterminous U.S. using a time series of daily temperature (mean, minimum, maximum), precipitation, humidity, light and nutrients, with PFT-specific rooting within a multi-layer soil. The model employs a 2-layer canopy biophysics, Farquhar photosynthesis, the Beer-Lambert Law for light attenuation and a mechanistic soil hydrology. In essence, BIOMAP is a re-built version of the biogeochemistry model, BIOME-BGC, into the form of the MAPSS biogeography model. Specific enhancements are: 1) the 2-layer canopy biophysics of Dolman (1993); 2) the unique MAPSS-based hydrology, which incorporates canopy evaporation, snow dynamics, infiltration and saturated and unsaturated percolation with ‘fast’ flow and base flow and a ‘tunable aquifer’ capacity, a metaphor of D’Arcy’s Law; and, 3) a unique MAPSS-based stomatal conductance algorithm, which simultaneously incorporates vapor pressure and soil water potential constraints, based on physiological information and many other improvements. Over small domains the PFTs can be parameterized as individual species to investigate fundamental vs. potential niche theory; while, at more coarse scales the PFTs can be rendered as more general functional groups. Since all of the model processes are intrinsically leaf to plot scale (physiology to PFT competition), it essentially has no ‘intrinsic’ scale and can be implemented on a grid of any size, taking on the characteristics defined by the homogeneous climate of each grid cell. Currently, the model is implemented on the VEMAP 1/2 degree, daily grid over the conterminous U.S. Although both the thermal and water-limited ecotones are dynamic, following climate variability, the PFT distributions remain fixed. Thus, the model is currently being fitted with a ‘reproduction niche’ to allow full dynamic operation as a Dynamic General Vegetation Model (DGVM). While global simulations

  17. The ecosystem models used for dose assessments in SR-Can

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Avila, Rodolfo [Facilia AB, Bromma (Sweden)

    2006-11-15

    The estimation of doses to humans in the main scenarios considered in SR-Can is carried out by multiplying the radionuclide releases to the biosphere by Landscape Dose Factors (LDF), which provide estimates of doses incurred by unit releases of activity of a specific radionuclide to the landscape. The landscape models considered in deriving the LDFs consist of a set of interconnected ecosystem models of different types, including aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. Aquatic ecosystems comprise the sea, lakes and rivers. The terrestrial ecosystems include agricultural lands, forests and mires. In this report dose conversion factor for each individual ecosystem are reported. Two release cases are considered in the report: a constant unit release rate during 10,000 years and a pulse release, i.e. a unit release during one year. For deriving the LDF values, at each considered time period an ecosystem model is assigned to each landscape object, according to the projected succession of ecosystems in the objects. The applied ecosystem models have been described elsewhere, but some modifications have been made which are described in this report. The main modifications applied to the models are to consider releases through bottom sediments and to consider upstream fluxes for the estimation of the fluxes of radionuclides between the different landscape objects. To facilitate calculations of the radionuclide concentrations in the ingested food, aggregated transfer factors are derived for each ecosystem type. These relate the radionuclide concentrations in the edible carbon production in different ecosystem types to the radionuclide concentrations in the main environmental substrates of the ecosystems, i.e. the water in aquatic ecosystems and the soil in the terrestrial ecosystems. The report provides a description of the methods applied for the derivation of aggregated transfer factors for each ecosystem type and for irrigation. These factors are applicable for situations of

  18. The ecosystem models used for dose assessments in SR-Can

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Avila, Rodolfo

    2006-11-01

    The estimation of doses to humans in the main scenarios considered in SR-Can is carried out by multiplying the radionuclide releases to the biosphere by Landscape Dose Factors (LDF), which provide estimates of doses incurred by unit releases of activity of a specific radionuclide to the landscape. The landscape models considered in deriving the LDFs consist of a set of interconnected ecosystem models of different types, including aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. Aquatic ecosystems comprise the sea, lakes and rivers. The terrestrial ecosystems include agricultural lands, forests and mires. In this report dose conversion factor for each individual ecosystem are reported. Two release cases are considered in the report: a constant unit release rate during 10,000 years and a pulse release, i.e. a unit release during one year. For deriving the LDF values, at each considered time period an ecosystem model is assigned to each landscape object, according to the projected succession of ecosystems in the objects. The applied ecosystem models have been described elsewhere, but some modifications have been made which are described in this report. The main modifications applied to the models are to consider releases through bottom sediments and to consider upstream fluxes for the estimation of the fluxes of radionuclides between the different landscape objects. To facilitate calculations of the radionuclide concentrations in the ingested food, aggregated transfer factors are derived for each ecosystem type. These relate the radionuclide concentrations in the edible carbon production in different ecosystem types to the radionuclide concentrations in the main environmental substrates of the ecosystems, i.e. the water in aquatic ecosystems and the soil in the terrestrial ecosystems. The report provides a description of the methods applied for the derivation of aggregated transfer factors for each ecosystem type and for irrigation. These factors are applicable for situations of

  19. Sensitivity of euphotic zone properties to CDOM variations in marine ecosystem models

    OpenAIRE

    Urtizberea, Agurtzane; Dupont, Nicolas; Rosland, Rune; Aksnes, Dag L.

    2013-01-01

    In marine ecosystem models, the underwater light intensity is commonly characterized by the shading of phytoplankton in addition to a background light attenuation coefficient. Colour dissolved organic matter (CDOM) is an important component of the background light attenuation, and we investigate how variation in CDOM attenuation affects euphotic zone properties in a general marine ecosystem model. Our results suggest that euphotic zone properties are highly sensitive to CDOM variations occurr...

  20. Activation of the operational ecohydrodynamic model (3D CEMBS - the ecosystem module

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jaromir Jakacki

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available The paper describes the ecohydrodynamic predictive model - the ecosystem module - for assessing the state of the Baltic marine environment and the Baltic ecosystem. The Baltic Sea model 3D CEMBS (the Coupled Ecosystem Model of the Baltic Sea is based on the Community Earth System Model, which was adopted for the Baltic Sea as a coupled sea-ice-ecosystem model. The 3D CEMBS model uses: (i hydrodynamic equations describing water movement, (ii thermodynamic equations, (iii equations describing the concentration distribution of chemical variables in the sea, and (iv equations describing the exchange of matter between individual groups of organisms and their environment that make allowance for the kinetics of biochemical processes. The ecosystem model consists of 11 main components: three classes of phytoplankton (small phytoplankton, large phytoplankton represented mainly by diatoms and summer species, mostly cyanobacteria expressed in units of carbon and chlorophyll a as separate variables, zooplankton, pelagic detritus, dissolved oxygen and nutrients (nitrate, ammonium, phosphate and silicate. In operational mode, 48-hour atmospheric forecasts provided by the UM model from the Interdisciplinary Centre for Mathematical and Computational Modelling of Warsaw University (ICM are used. All model forecasts are available on the website http://deep.iopan.gda.pl/CEMBaltic/new_lay/index.php. The results presented in this paper show that the 3D CEMBS model is operating correctly.

  1. The Port Service Ecosystem Research Based on the Lotka-Volterra Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li Wenjuan

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Under the new normal of China’s economy, the competition among the port enterprises is not only the competition of the core competence of the port, the port industry chain or the port supply chain, but also the competition of the port service ecosystem. In this paper, the concept and characteristics of the port service ecosystem is discussed, a hierarchical model of the port service ecosystem is constructed. As an extended logistic model, Lotka-Volterra model is applied to study the competitive co-evolution and mutually beneficial co-evolution of enterprises in the port service ecosystem. This paper simulates the co-evolution of enterprises in the port service ecosystem by using MATLAB programming. The simulation results show that the breadth of the niche of the enterprises is changing with the change of the competition coefficient and the coefficient of mutual benefit in the port service ecosystem. Based on that, some proposals are put forward to ensure the healthy and orderly development of the port service ecosystem.

  2. Trophic models: What do we learn about Celtic Sea and Bay of Biscay ecosystems?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moullec, Fabien; Gascuel, Didier; Bentorcha, Karim; Guénette, Sylvie; Robert, Marianne

    2017-08-01

    Trophic models are key tools to go beyond the single-species approaches used in stock assessments to adopt a more holistic view and implement the Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries Management (EAFM). This study aims to: (i) analyse the trophic functioning of the Celtic Sea and the Bay of Biscay, (ii) investigate ecosystem changes over the 1980-2013 period and, (iii) explore the response to management measures at the food web scale. Ecopath models were built for each ecosystem for years 1980 and 2013, and Ecosim models were fitted to time series data of biomass and catches. EcoTroph diagnosis showed that in both ecosystems, fishing pressure focuses on high trophic levels (TLs) and, to a lesser extent, on intermediate TLs. However, the interplay between local environmental conditions, species composition and ecosystem functioning could explain the different responses to fisheries management observed between these two contiguous ecosystems. Indeed, over the study period, the ecosystem's exploitation status has improved in the Bay of Biscay but not in the Celtic Sea. This improvement does not seem to be sufficient to achieve the objectives of an EAFM, as high trophic levels were still overexploited in 2013 and simulations conducted with Ecosim in the Bay of Biscay indicate that at current fishing effort the biomass will not be rebuilt by 2030. The ecosystem's response to a reduction in fishing mortality depends on which trophic levels receive protection. Reducing fishing mortality on pelagic fish, instead of on demersal fish, appears more efficient at maximising catch and total biomass and at conserving both top-predator and intermediate TLs. Such advice-oriented trophic models should be used on a regular basis to monitor the health status of marine food webs and analyse the trade-offs between multiple objectives in an ecosystem-based fisheries management context.

  3. Models for transport and fate of carbon, nutrients and radionuclides in the aquatic ecosystem at Oeregrundsgrepen

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Erichsen, Anders Christian; Moehlenberg, Flemming; Closter, Rikke Margrethe; Sandberg, Johannes

    2010-06-01

    The aim of the work was to provide supplementary input to the risk assessment of a planned final nuclear waste repository at Forsmark. The main deliverable was a computed water exchange between basins in the Forsmark marine area for the period 6500 BC to 9000 AD - based on the hydrodynamic modelling - to be used as input to the landscape dose model. In addition and what is described in this report, a second deliverable was development and application of high-resolution models for the marine ecosystem and radionuclide processes. The purpose of this deliverable was to illustrate the spatial and temporal variation in important processes and parameters, while constituting a complement to previous modelling approaches and providing supporting information to discussions of the marine ecosystem, parameters and variation (see Chapter 4 and 6).To this end, a hydrodynamic model of high temporal and spatial resolution was constructed and calibrated for the Forsmark area. An ecosystem model was then developed and coupled to the hydrodynamic model. In turn, a detailed radionuclide model was coupled to the ecosystem model to provide detailed predictions of radionuclide transport and accumulation in the coastal ecosystem. The ecosystem and radionuclide models were developed in the equation solver MIKE ECOLab that links seamless to the MIKE3 FM hydrodynamic model. The 'standard' ECOLab ecosystem model was extended with six biological state variables, perennial macroalgae, benthic herbivors, detritus feeders, planktivorus fish and, benthic predators representing the relict isopod Saduria and cod. In contrast to the ecosystem model, the radionuclide model was developed from scratch but building on the structure of the ecosystem model and using the output (process rates linking state variables) from the ecosystem model as input to the radionuclide model. Both the ecosystem model and the radionuclide model were run for several years (5-8 years) to bring state variables into quasi

  4. Models for transport and fate of carbon, nutrients and radionuclides in the aquatic ecosystem at Oeregrundsgrepen

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Erichsen, Anders Christian; Moehlenberg, Flemming; Closter, Rikke Margrethe; Sandberg, Johannes [DHI, Hoersholm (Denmark)

    2010-06-15

    The aim of the work was to provide supplementary input to the risk assessment of a planned final nuclear waste repository at Forsmark. The main deliverable was a computed water exchange between basins in the Forsmark marine area for the period 6500 BC to 9000 AD - based on the hydrodynamic modelling - to be used as input to the landscape dose model. In addition and what is described in this report, a second deliverable was development and application of high-resolution models for the marine ecosystem and radionuclide processes. The purpose of this deliverable was to illustrate the spatial and temporal variation in important processes and parameters, while constituting a complement to previous modelling approaches and providing supporting information to discussions of the marine ecosystem, parameters and variation (see Chapter 4 and 6).To this end, a hydrodynamic model of high temporal and spatial resolution was constructed and calibrated for the Forsmark area. An ecosystem model was then developed and coupled to the hydrodynamic model. In turn, a detailed radionuclide model was coupled to the ecosystem model to provide detailed predictions of radionuclide transport and accumulation in the coastal ecosystem. The ecosystem and radionuclide models were developed in the equation solver MIKE ECOLab that links seamless to the MIKE3 FM hydrodynamic model. The 'standard' ECOLab ecosystem model was extended with six biological state variables, perennial macroalgae, benthic herbivors, detritus feeders, planktivorus fish and, benthic predators representing the relict isopod Saduria and cod. In contrast to the ecosystem model, the radionuclide model was developed from scratch but building on the structure of the ecosystem model and using the output (process rates linking state variables) from the ecosystem model as input to the radionuclide model. Both the ecosystem model and the radionuclide model were run for several years (5-8 years) to bring state variables into quasi

  5. Daily global solar radiation modelling using multi-layer perceptron neural networks in semi-arid region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mawloud GUERMOUI

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Accurate estimation of Daily Global Solar Radiation (DGSR has been a major goal for solar energy application. However, solar radiation measurements are not a simple task for several reasons. In the cases where data are not available, it is very common the use of computational models to estimate the missing data, which are based mainly of the search for relationships between weather variables, such as temperature, humidity, sunshine duration, etc. In this respect, the present study focuses on the development of artificial neural network (ANN model for estimation of daily global solar radiation on horizontal surface in Ghardaia city (South Algeria. In this analysis back-propagation algorithm is applied. Daily mean air temperature, relative humidity and sunshine duration was used as climatic inputs parameters, while the daily global solar radiation (DGSR was the only output of the ANN. We have evaluated Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP models to estimate DGSR using three year of measurement (2005-2008. It was found that MLP-model based on sunshine duration and mean air temperature give accurate results in term of Mean Absolute Bias Error, Root Mean Square Error, Relative Square Error and Correlation Coefficient. The obtained values of these indicators are 0.67 MJ/m², 1.28 MJ/m², 6.12%and 98.18%, respectively which shows that MLP is highly qualified for DGSR estimation in semi-arid climates.

  6. The numerical model of multi-layer insulation with a defined wrapping pattern immersed in superfluid helium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malecha, Ziemowit; Lubryka, Eliza

    2017-11-01

    The numerical model of thin layers, characterized by a defined wrapping pattern can be a crucial element of many computational problems related to engineering and science. A motivating example is found in multilayer electrical insulation, which is an important component of superconducting magnets and other cryogenic installations. The wrapping pattern of the insulation can significantly affect heat transport and the performance of the considered instruments. The major objective of this study is to develop the numerical boundary conditions (BC) needed to model the wrapping pattern of thin insulation. An example of the practical application of the proposed BC includes the heat transfer of Rutherford NbTi cables immersed in super-fluid helium (He II) across thin layers of electrical insulation. The proposed BC and a mathematical model of heat transfer in He II are implemented in the open source CFD toolbox OpenFOAM. The implemented mathematical model and the BC are compared in the experiments. The study confirms that the thermal resistance of electrical insulation can be lowered by implementing the proper wrapping pattern. The proposed BC can be useful in the study of new patterns for wrapping schemes. The work has been supported by statutory funds from Polish Ministry for Science and Higher Education for the year of 2017.

  7. A terrestrial ecosystem model (SOLVEG) coupled with atmospheric gas and aerosol exchange processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Katata, Genki; Ota, Masakazu

    2017-01-01

    In order to predict the impact of atmospheric pollutants (gases and aerosols) to the terrestrial ecosystem, new schemes for calculating the processes of dry deposition of gases and aerosols, and water and carbon cycles in terrestrial ecosystems were implemented in the one-dimensional atmosphere-SOiL-VEGetation model, SOLVEG. We made performance tests at various vegetation areas to validate the newly developed schemes. In this report, the detail in each modeled process is described with an instruction how to use the modified SOLVEG. The framework of 'terrestrial ecosystem model' was developed for investigation of a change in water, energy, and carbon cycles associated with global warming and air pollution and its impact on terrestrial ecosystems. (author)

  8. Intelligent Model Management in a Forest Ecosystem Management Decision Support System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donald Nute; Walter D. Potter; Frederick Maier; Jin Wang; Mark Twery; H. Michael Rauscher; Peter Knopp; Scott Thomasma; Mayukh Dass; Hajime Uchiyama

    2002-01-01

    Decision making for forest ecosystem management can include the use of a wide variety of modeling tools. These tools include vegetation growth models, wildlife models, silvicultural models, GIS, and visualization tools. NED-2 is a robust, intelligent, goal-driven decision support system that integrates tools in each of these categories. NED-2 uses a blackboard...

  9. The sensitivity of ecosystem service models to choices of input data and spatial resolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kenneth J. Bagstad; Erika Cohen; Zachary H. Ancona; Steven. G. McNulty; Ge   Sun

    2018-01-01

    Although ecosystem service (ES) modeling has progressed rapidly in the last 10–15 years, comparative studies on data and model selection effects have become more common only recently. Such studies have drawn mixed conclusions about whether different data and model choices yield divergent results. In this study, we compared the results of different models to address...

  10. Modelling impacts of second generation bioenergy production on Ecosystem Services in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henner, Dagmar; Smith, Pete; Davies, Christian; McNamara, Niall

    2016-04-01

    Bioenergy crops are an important source of renewable energy and are a possible mechanism to mitigate global climate warming, by replacing fossil fuel energy with higher greenhouse gas emissions. There is, however, uncertainty about the impacts of the growth of bioenergy crops on ecosystem services. This uncertainty is further enhanced by the unpredictable climate change currently going on. The goal of this project is to develop a comprehensive model that covers high impact, policy relevant ecosystem services at a Continental scale including biodiversity and pollination, water and air security, erosion control and soil security, GHG emissions, soil C and cultural services like tourism value. The technical distribution potential and likely yield of second generation energy crops, such as Miscanthus, Short Rotation Coppice (SRC) with willow, poplar, eucalyptus and other broadleaf species and Short Rotation Forestry (SRF), is currently being modelled using ECOSSE, DayCent, SalixFor and MiscanFor, and ecosystem models will be used to examine the impacts of these crops on ecosystem services. The project builds on models of energy crop production, biodiversity, soil impacts, greenhouse gas emissions and other ecosystem services, and on work undertaken in the UK on the ETI-funded ELUM project (www.elum.ac.uk). In addition, methods like water footprint tools, tourism value maps and ecosystem valuation tools and models (e.g. InVest, TEEB database, GREET LCA Model, World Business Council for Sustainable Development corporate ecosystem valuation, Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and the Ecosystem Services Framework) will be utilised. Research will focus on optimisation of land use change feedbacks on above named ecosystem services, impact on food security, land management practices and impacts from climate change. We will present results for GHG emissions and soil organic carbon change after different land use change scenarios (e.g. arable to Miscanthus, forest to SRF), and

  11. Development of the BIOME-BGC model for the simulation of managed Moso bamboo forest ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mao, Fangjie; Li, Pingheng; Zhou, Guomo; Du, Huaqiang; Xu, Xiaojun; Shi, Yongjun; Mo, Lufeng; Zhou, Yufeng; Tu, Guoqing

    2016-05-01

    Numerical models are the most appropriate instrument for the analysis of the carbon balance of terrestrial ecosystems and their interactions with changing environmental conditions. The process-based model BIOME-BGC is widely used in simulation of carbon balance within vegetation, litter and soil of unmanaged ecosystems. For Moso bamboo forests, however, simulations with BIOME-BGC are inaccurate in terms of the growing season and the carbon allocation, due to the oversimplified representation of phenology. Our aim was to improve the applicability of BIOME-BGC for managed Moso bamboo forest ecosystem by implementing several new modules, including phenology, carbon allocation, and management. Instead of the simple phenology and carbon allocation representations in the original version, a periodic Moso bamboo phenology and carbon allocation module was implemented, which can handle the processes of Moso bamboo shooting and high growth during "on-year" and "off-year". Four management modules (digging bamboo shoots, selective cutting, obtruncation, fertilization) were integrated in order to quantify the functioning of managed ecosystems. The improved model was calibrated and validated using eddy covariance measurement data collected at a managed Moso bamboo forest site (Anji) during 2011-2013 years. As a result of these developments and calibrations, the performance of the model was substantially improved. Regarding the measured and modeled fluxes (gross primary production, total ecosystem respiration, net ecosystem exchange), relative errors were decreased by 42.23%, 103.02% and 18.67%, respectively. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Numerical modeling of mechanical behavior of multilayered composite plates with defects under static loading

    Science.gov (United States)

    Korepanov, V. V.; Serovaev, G. S.

    2017-06-01

    Evaluation of the mechanical state of a structure or its components in the process of operation based on detection of internal damages (damage detection) becomes especially important in such rapidly developing spheres of production as machine building, aerospace industry, etc. One of the most important features of these industries is the application of new types of materials among which polymer based composite materials occupy a significant position. Hence, they must have sufficient operational rigidity and strength. However, defects of various kinds may arise during the manufacture. Delamination is the most common defect in structures made from composite materials and represents a phenomenon that involves the complex fracture of layers and interlayer compounds. Among the reasons of delamination occurrence are: disposition of anti-adhesive lubricants, films; insufficient content of binder, high content of volatile elements; violation of the molding regime; poor quality of anti-adhesive coating on the surface of the tooling. One of the effective methods for analyzing the influence of defects is numerical simulation. With the help of numerical methods, it is possible to track the evolution of various parameters when the defect size and quantity change. In the paper, a multilayered plate of an equally resistant carbon fiber reinforced plastic was considered, with a thickness of each layer equal to 0.2 mm. Various static loading cases are studied: uniaxial tension, three and four-point bending. For each type of loading, a numerical calculation of the stress-strain state was performed for healthy and delaminated plates, with different number and size of the defects. Contact interaction between adjacent surfaces in the zone of delamination was taken into account.

  13. Kinetic Monte Carlo modeling of the efficiency roll-off in a multilayer white organic light-emitting device

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mesta, M.; Coehoorn, R.; Bobbert, P. A. [Department of Applied Physics, Technische Universiteit Eindhoven, P.O. Box 513, NL-5600 MB Eindhoven (Netherlands); Eersel, H. van [Simbeyond B.V., P.O. Box 513, NL-5600 MB Eindhoven (Netherlands)

    2016-03-28

    Triplet-triplet annihilation (TTA) and triplet-polaron quenching (TPQ) in organic light-emitting devices (OLEDs) lead to a roll-off of the internal quantum efficiency (IQE) with increasing current density J. We employ a kinetic Monte Carlo modeling study to analyze the measured IQE and color balance as a function of J in a multilayer hybrid white OLED that combines fluorescent blue with phosphorescent green and red emission. We investigate two models for TTA and TPQ involving the phosphorescent green and red emitters: short-range nearest-neighbor quenching and long-range Förster-type quenching. Short-range quenching predicts roll-off to occur at much higher J than measured. Taking long-range quenching with Förster radii for TTA and TPQ equal to twice the Förster radii for exciton transfer leads to a fair description of the measured IQE-J curve, with the major contribution to the roll-off coming from TPQ. The measured decrease of the ratio of phosphorescent to fluorescent component of the emitted light with increasing J is correctly predicted. A proper description of the J-dependence of the ratio of red and green phosphorescent emission needs further model refinements.

  14. Kinetic Monte Carlo modeling of the efficiency roll-off in a multilayer white organic light-emitting device

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mesta, M.; van Eersel, H.; Coehoorn, R.; Bobbert, P. A.

    2016-03-01

    Triplet-triplet annihilation (TTA) and triplet-polaron quenching (TPQ) in organic light-emitting devices (OLEDs) lead to a roll-off of the internal quantum efficiency (IQE) with increasing current density J. We employ a kinetic Monte Carlo modeling study to analyze the measured IQE and color balance as a function of J in a multilayer hybrid white OLED that combines fluorescent blue with phosphorescent green and red emission. We investigate two models for TTA and TPQ involving the phosphorescent green and red emitters: short-range nearest-neighbor quenching and long-range Förster-type quenching. Short-range quenching predicts roll-off to occur at much higher J than measured. Taking long-range quenching with Förster radii for TTA and TPQ equal to twice the Förster radii for exciton transfer leads to a fair description of the measured IQE-J curve, with the major contribution to the roll-off coming from TPQ. The measured decrease of the ratio of phosphorescent to fluorescent component of the emitted light with increasing J is correctly predicted. A proper description of the J-dependence of the ratio of red and green phosphorescent emission needs further model refinements.

  15. Kinetic Monte Carlo modeling of the efficiency roll-off in a multilayer white organic light-emitting device

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mesta, M.; Coehoorn, R.; Bobbert, P. A.; Eersel, H. van

    2016-01-01

    Triplet-triplet annihilation (TTA) and triplet-polaron quenching (TPQ) in organic light-emitting devices (OLEDs) lead to a roll-off of the internal quantum efficiency (IQE) with increasing current density J. We employ a kinetic Monte Carlo modeling study to analyze the measured IQE and color balance as a function of J in a multilayer hybrid white OLED that combines fluorescent blue with phosphorescent green and red emission. We investigate two models for TTA and TPQ involving the phosphorescent green and red emitters: short-range nearest-neighbor quenching and long-range Förster-type quenching. Short-range quenching predicts roll-off to occur at much higher J than measured. Taking long-range quenching with Förster radii for TTA and TPQ equal to twice the Förster radii for exciton transfer leads to a fair description of the measured IQE-J curve, with the major contribution to the roll-off coming from TPQ. The measured decrease of the ratio of phosphorescent to fluorescent component of the emitted light with increasing J is correctly predicted. A proper description of the J-dependence of the ratio of red and green phosphorescent emission needs further model refinements.

  16. Global and Regional Ecosystem Modeling: Databases of Model Drivers and Validation Measurements

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Olson, R.J.

    2002-03-19

    Understanding global-scale ecosystem responses to changing environmental conditions is important both as a scientific question and as the basis for making policy decisions. The confidence in regional models depends on how well the field data used to develop the model represent the region of interest, how well the environmental model driving variables (e.g., vegetation type, climate, and soils associated with a site used to parameterize ecosystem models) represent the region of interest, and how well regional model predictions agree with observed data for the region. To assess the accuracy of global model forecasts of terrestrial carbon cycling, two Ecosystem Model-Data Intercomparison (EMDI) workshops were held (December 1999 and April 2001). The workshops included 17 biogeochemical, satellite-driven, detailed process, and dynamic vegetation global model types. The approach was to run regional or global versions of the models for sites with net primary productivity (NPP) measurements (i.e., not fine-tuned for specific site conditions) and analyze the model-data differences. Extensive worldwide NPP data were assembled with model driver data, including vegetation, climate, and soils data, to perform the intercomparison. This report describes the compilation of NPP estimates for 2,523 sites and 5,164 0.5{sup o}-grid cells under the Global Primary Production Data Initiative (GPPDI) and the results of the EMDI review and outlier analysis that produced a refined set of NPP estimates and model driver data. The EMDI process resulted in 81 Class A sites, 933 Class B sites, and 3,855 Class C cells derived from the original synthesis of NPP measurements and associated driver data. Class A sites represent well-documented study sites that have complete aboveground and below ground NPP measurements. Class B sites represent more numerous ''extensive'' sites with less documentation and site-specific information available. Class C cells represent estimates of

  17. A New Conceptual Model for Business Ecosystem Visualization and Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luiz Felipe Hupsel Vaz

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This study has the objective of plotting the effects of network externalities and superstar software for the visualization and analysis of industry ecosystems. The output is made possible by gathering sales from a tracking website, associating each sale to a single consumer and by using a network visualization software. The result is a graph that shows strategic positioning of publishers and platforms, serving as a strategic tool for both academics and professionals. The approach is scalable to other industries and can be used to support analysis on mergers, acquisitions and alliances.

  18. Modeling Carbon Turnover in Five Terrestrial Ecosystems in the Boreal Zone Using Multiple Criteria of Acceptance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karlberg, Louise; Gustafsson, David; Jansson, Per-Erik

    2006-01-01

    Estimates of carbon fluxes and turnover in ecosystems are key elements in the understanding of climate change and in predicting the accumulation of trace elements in the biosphere. In this paper we present estimates of carbon fluxes and turnover times for five terrestrial ecosystems using a modeling approach. Multiple criteria of acceptance were used to parameterize the model, thus incorporating large amounts of multi-faceted empirical data in the simulations in a standardized manner. Mean turnover times of carbon were found to be rather similar between systems with a few exceptions, even though the size of both the pools and the fluxes varied substantially. Depending on the route of the carbon through the ecosystem, turnover times varied from less than one year to more than one hundred, which may be of importance when considering trace element transport and retention. The parameterization method was useful both in the estimation of unknown parameters, and to identify variability in carbon turnover in the selected ecosystems

  19. Modelling carbon cycle of agro-forest ecosystems in Lombardy (Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Colombo R

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we present a methodology for the estimation of Gross Primary Production (GPP, Net Primary Production (NPP and Net Ecosystem Production (NEP for the main agricultural and forest ecosystems of the Lombardia Region (Italy. The MOD17 model was parameterized according to the different agro-forestry ecosystems and applied at regional scale by using satellite data with a spatial resolution of 250m. The high spatial resolution along with fine classification agro-forestry ecosystems has allowed to accurately analyze the carbon budget of an extremely fragmented and complex environment such as the Lombardia Region. Modeling results showed the role of the forests in the carbon budget at regional scale and represent important information layer for the spatial analysis and for inferring the inter-annual variability of carbon sequestration due to impacts of extreme events and recent climate change (e.g., drought, heat wave, flooding, fires.

  20. Stomatal Conductance, Plant Hydraulics, and Multilayer Canopies: A New Paradigm for Earth System Models or Unnecessary Uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonan, G. B.

    2016-12-01

    Soil moisture stress is a key regulator of canopy transpiration, the surface energy budget, and land-atmosphere coupling. Many land surface models used in Earth system models have an ad-hoc parameterization of soil moisture stress that decreases stomatal conductance with soil drying. Parameterization of soil moisture stress from more fundamental principles of plant hydrodynamics is a key research frontier for land surface models. While the biophysical and physiological foundations of such parameterizations are well-known, their best implementation in land surface models is less clear. Land surface models utilize a big-leaf canopy parameterization (or two big-leaves to represent the sunlit and shaded canopy) without vertical gradients in the canopy. However, there are strong biometeorological and physiological gradients in plant canopies. Are these gradients necessary to resolve? Here, I describe a vertically-resolved, multilayer canopy model that calculates leaf temperature and energy fluxes, photosynthesis, stomatal conductance, and leaf water potential at each level in the canopy. In this model, midday leaf water stress manifests in the upper canopy layers, which receive high amounts of solar radiation, have high leaf nitrogen and photosynthetic capacity, and have high stomatal conductance and transpiration rates (in the absence of leaf water stress). Lower levels in the canopy become water stressed in response to longer-term soil moisture drying. I examine the role of vertical gradients in the canopy microclimate (solar radiation, air temperature, vapor pressure, wind speed), structure (leaf area density), and physiology (leaf nitrogen, photosynthetic capacity, stomatal conductance) in determining above canopy fluxes and gradients of transpiration and leaf water potential within the canopy.

  1. Improving the precision of lake ecosystem metabolism estimates by identifying predictors of model uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rose, Kevin C.; Winslow, Luke A.; Read, Jordan S.; Read, Emily K.; Solomon, Christopher T.; Adrian, Rita; Hanson, Paul C.

    2014-01-01

    Diel changes in dissolved oxygen are often used to estimate gross primary production (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (ER) in aquatic ecosystems. Despite the widespread use of this approach to understand ecosystem metabolism, we are only beginning to understand the degree and underlying causes of uncertainty for metabolism model parameter estimates. Here, we present a novel approach to improve the precision and accuracy of ecosystem metabolism estimates by identifying physical metrics that indicate when metabolism estimates are highly uncertain. Using datasets from seventeen instrumented GLEON (Global Lake Ecological Observatory Network) lakes, we discovered that many physical characteristics correlated with uncertainty, including PAR (photosynthetically active radiation, 400-700 nm), daily variance in Schmidt stability, and wind speed. Low PAR was a consistent predictor of high variance in GPP model parameters, but also corresponded with low ER model parameter variance. We identified a threshold (30% of clear sky PAR) below which GPP parameter variance increased rapidly and was significantly greater in nearly all lakes compared with variance on days with PAR levels above this threshold. The relationship between daily variance in Schmidt stability and GPP model parameter variance depended on trophic status, whereas daily variance in Schmidt stability was consistently positively related to ER model parameter variance. Wind speeds in the range of ~0.8-3 m s–1 were consistent predictors of high variance for both GPP and ER model parameters, with greater uncertainty in eutrophic lakes. Our findings can be used to reduce ecosystem metabolism model parameter uncertainty and identify potential sources of that uncertainty.

  2. An integral test of FLUKA nuclear models with 160 MeV proton beams in multi-layer Faraday cups

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rinaldi, I; Ferrari, A; Mairani, A; Parodi, K; Paganetti, H; Sala, P

    2011-01-01

    Monte Carlo (MC) codes are useful tools to simulate the complex processes of proton beam interactions with matter. In proton therapy, nuclear reactions influence the dose distribution. Therefore, the validation of nuclear models adopted in MC codes is a critical requisite for their use in this field. A simple integral test can be performed using a multi-layer Faraday cup (MLFC). This method allows separation of the nuclear and atomic interaction processes, which are responsible for secondary particle emission and the finite primary proton range, respectively. In this work, the propagation of 160 MeV protons stopping in two MLFCs made of polyethylene and copper has been simulated by the FLUKA MC code. The calculations have been performed with and without secondary electron emission and transport, as well as charge sharing in the dielectric layers. Previous results with other codes neglected those two effects. The impact of this approximation has been investigated and found to be relevant only in the proximity of the Bragg peak. Longitudinal charge distributions computed with FLUKA with both approaches have been compared with experimental data from the literature. Moreover, the contribution of different processes to the measurable signal has been addressed. A thorough analysis of the results has demonstrated that the nuclear and electromagnetic models of FLUKA reproduce the two sets of experimental data reasonably well.

  3. A Novel Multilayer Correlation Maximization Model for Improving CCA-Based Frequency Recognition in SSVEP Brain-Computer Interface.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiao, Yong; Zhang, Yu; Wang, Yu; Wang, Bei; Jin, Jing; Wang, Xingyu

    2018-05-01

    Multiset canonical correlation analysis (MsetCCA) has been successfully applied to optimize the reference signals by extracting common features from multiple sets of electroencephalogram (EEG) for steady-state visual evoked potential (SSVEP) recognition in brain-computer interface application. To avoid extracting the possible noise components as common features, this study proposes a sophisticated extension of MsetCCA, called multilayer correlation maximization (MCM) model for further improving SSVEP recognition accuracy. MCM combines advantages of both CCA and MsetCCA by carrying out three layers of correlation maximization processes. The first layer is to extract the stimulus frequency-related information in using CCA between EEG samples and sine-cosine reference signals. The second layer is to learn reference signals by extracting the common features with MsetCCA. The third layer is to re-optimize the reference signals set in using CCA with sine-cosine reference signals again. Experimental study is implemented to validate effectiveness of the proposed MCM model in comparison with the standard CCA and MsetCCA algorithms. Superior performance of MCM demonstrates its promising potential for the development of an improved SSVEP-based brain-computer interface.

  4. Global sensitivity analysis of DRAINMOD-FOREST, an integrated forest ecosystem model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shiying Tian; Mohamed A. Youssef; Devendra M. Amatya; Eric D. Vance

    2014-01-01

    Global sensitivity analysis is a useful tool to understand process-based ecosystem models by identifying key parameters and processes controlling model predictions. This study reported a comprehensive global sensitivity analysis for DRAINMOD-FOREST, an integrated model for simulating water, carbon (C), and nitrogen (N) cycles and plant growth in lowland forests. The...

  5. Activation of the marine ecosystem model 3D CEMBS for the Baltic Sea in operational mode

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dzierzbicka-Glowacka, Lidia; Jakacki, Jaromir; Janecki, Maciej; Nowicki, Artur

    2013-04-01

    The paper presents a new marine ecosystem model 3D CEMBS designed for the Baltic Sea. The ecosystem model is incorporated into the 3D POPCICE ocean-ice model. The Current Baltic Sea model is based on the Community Earth System Model (CESM from the National Center for Atmospheric Research) which was adapted for the Baltic Sea as a coupled sea-ice model. It consists of the Community Ice Code (CICE model, version 4.0) and the Parallel Ocean Program (version 2.1). The ecosystem model is a biological submodel of the 3D CEMBS. It consists of eleven mass conservation equations. There are eleven partial second-order differential equations of the diffusion type with the advective term for phytoplankton, zooplankton, nutrients, dissolved oxygen, and dissolved and particulate organic matter. This model is an effective tool for solving the problem of ecosystem bioproductivity. The model is forced by 48-hour atmospheric forecasts provided by the UM model from the Interdisciplinary Centre for Mathematical and Computational Modelling of Warsaw University (ICM). The study was financially supported by the Polish State Committee of Scientific Research (grants: No N N305 111636, N N306 353239). The partial support for this study was also provided by the project Satellite Monitoring of the Baltic Sea Environment - SatBaltyk founded by European Union through European Regional Development Fund contract no. POIG 01.01.02-22-011/09. Calculations were carried out at the Academy Computer Centre in Gdańsk.

  6. Variable selection for modelling effects of eutrophication on stream and river ecosystems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nijboer, R.C.; Verdonschot, P.F.M.

    2004-01-01

    Models are needed for forecasting the effects of eutrophication on stream and river ecosystems. Most of the current models do not include differences in local stream characteristics and effects on the biota. To define the most important variables that should be used in a stream eutrophication model,

  7. Assessment of Urban Ecosystem Health Based on Entropy Weight Extension Decision Model in Urban Agglomeration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qian Yang

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Urban ecosystem health evaluation can assist in sustainable ecological management at a regional level. This study examined urban agglomeration ecosystem health in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River with entropy weight and extension theories. The model overcomes information omissions and subjectivity problems in the evaluation process of urban ecosystem health. Results showed that human capital and education, economic development level as well as urban infrastructure have a significant effect on the health states of urban agglomerations. The health status of the urban agglomeration’s ecosystem was not optimistic in 2013. The majority of the cities were unhealthy or verging on unhealthy, accounting for 64.52% of the total number of cities in the urban agglomeration. The regional differences of the 31 cities’ ecosystem health are significant. The cause originated from an imbalance in economic development and the policy guidance of city development. It is necessary to speed up the integration process to promote coordinated regional development. The present study will aid us in understanding and advancing the health situation of the urban ecosystem in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River and will provide an efficient urban ecosystem health evaluation method that can be used in other areas.

  8. Modeling of solar transmission through multilayer glazing facade using shading blinds with arbitrary geometrical and surface optical properties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Luo, Yongqiang; Zhang, Ling; Wu, Jing; Wang, Xiliang; Liu, Zhongbing; Wu, Zhenghong

    2017-01-01

    A system model that can accurately simulate the instantaneous solar transmittance through multilayer glazing façade (MGF) and shading device can provide a solid foundation for the thermal and daylighting performance calculation of MGF as well as indoor visual comfort evaluation. Traditional optical models for venetian blind and glazing façade meet with their limitations to analyze new prototype of shading blind like photovoltaic (PV) blind which has quite different surface optical properties compared with conventional venetian blind. The present study proposed a new system model for MGF using shading blind with arbitrary geometrical and optical features which is suitable for a wide range of applications. Three major calculation types for modeling of shading blinds cover all the possible situations in application. Guess Integer-Valued Function is adopted for delivering a general description on direct radiation transport. The direct-direct, direct-diffuse and diffuse-diffuse radiation transports are separately considered. A series of experiments were carried out to validate the model under various parameter settings and different weather conditions. Parametric study revealed some new findings in the evaluations of influence of ambient radiation situations, geometrical and optical features of blind space on both solar transmittance and solar absorption by blind layer. - Highlights: • Solar transport through glazing façades with PV blind with arbitrary geometry is simulated. • Ray-tracing and radiosity method are coupled in calculation. • Guess Integer-Valued Function is used in calculation of direct radiation transport. • Experiment and simulated data are compared for model validation. • Parametric study is conducted for evaluating the impact of different factors on the system.

  9. Exploring spatial change and gravity center movement for ecosystem services value using a spatially explicit ecosystem services value index and gravity model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Yingbin; Chen, Youqi; Tang, Huajun; Yao, Yanmin; Yang, Peng; Chen, Zhongxin

    2011-04-01

    Spatially explicit ecosystem services valuation and change is a newly developing area of research in the field of ecology. Using the Beijing region as a study area, the authors have developed a spatially explicit ecosystem services value index and implemented this to quantify and spatially differentiate ecosystem services value at 1-km grid resolution. A gravity model was developed to trace spatial change in the total ecosystem services value of the Beijing study area from a holistic point of view. Study results show that the total value of ecosystem services for the study area decreased by 19.75% during the period 1996-2006 (3,226.2739 US$×10(6) in 1996, 2,589.0321 US$×10(6) in 2006). However, 27.63% of the total area of the Beijing study area increased in ecosystem services value. Spatial differences in ecosystem services values for both 1996 and 2006 are very clear. The center of gravity of total ecosystem services value for the study area moved 32.28 km northwestward over the 10 years due to intensive human intervention taking place in southeast Beijing. The authors suggest that policy-makers should pay greater attention to ecological protection under conditions of rapid socio-economic development and increase the area of green belt in the southeastern part of Beijing.

  10. Linking hydrology, ecosystem function, and livelihood sustainability in African papyrus wetlands using a Bayesian Network Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Dam, A.; Gettel, G. M.; Kipkemboi, J.; Rahman, M. M.

    2011-12-01

    Papyrus wetlands in East Africa provide ecosystem services supporting the livelihoods of millions but are rapidly degrading due to economic development. For ecosystem conservation, an integrated understanding of the natural and social processes driving ecosystem change is needed. This research focuses on integrating the causal relationships between hydrology, ecosystem function, and livelihood sustainability in Nyando wetland, western Kenya. Livelihood sustainability is based on ecosystem services that include plant and animal harvest for building material and food, conversion of wetlands to crop and grazing land, water supply, and water quality regulation. Specific objectives were: to integrate studies of hydrology, ecology, and livelihood activities using a Bayesian Network (BN) model and include stakeholder involvement in model development. The BN model (Netica 4.16) had 35 nodes with seven decision nodes describing demography, economy, papyrus market, and rainfall, and two target nodes describing ecosystem function (defined by groundwater recharge, nutrient and sediment retention, and biodiversity) and livelihood sustainability (drinking water supply, crop production, livestock production, and papyrus yield). The conditional probability tables were populated using results of ecohydrological and socio-economic field work and consultations with stakeholders. The model was evaluated for an average year with decision node probabilities set according to data from research, expert opinion, and stakeholders' views. Then, scenarios for dry and wet seasons and for economic development (low population growth and unemployment) and policy development (more awareness of wetland value) were evaluated. In an average year, the probability for maintaining a "good" level of sediment and nutrient retention functions, groundwater recharge, and biodiversity was about 60%. ("Good" is defined by expert opinion based on ongoing field research.) In the dry season, the probability was

  11. An Integrated Coral Reef Ecosystem Model to Support Resource Management under a Changing Climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weijerman, Mariska; Fulton, Elizabeth A; Kaplan, Isaac C; Gorton, Rebecca; Leemans, Rik; Mooij, Wolf M; Brainard, Russell E

    2015-01-01

    Millions of people rely on the ecosystem services provided by coral reefs, but sustaining these benefits requires an understanding of how reefs and their biotic communities are affected by local human-induced disturbances and global climate change. Ecosystem-based management that explicitly considers the indirect and cumulative effects of multiple disturbances has been recommended and adopted in policies in many places around the globe. Ecosystem models give insight into complex reef dynamics and their responses to multiple disturbances and are useful tools to support planning and implementation of ecosystem-based management. We adapted the Atlantis Ecosystem Model to incorporate key dynamics for a coral reef ecosystem around Guam in the tropical western Pacific. We used this model to quantify the effects of predicted climate and ocean changes and current levels of current land-based sources of pollution (LBSP) and fishing. We used the following six ecosystem metrics as indicators of ecosystem state, resilience and harvest potential: 1) ratio of calcifying to non-calcifying benthic groups, 2) trophic level of the community, 3) biomass of apex predators, 4) biomass of herbivorous fishes, 5) total biomass of living groups and 6) the end-to-start ratio of exploited fish groups. Simulation tests of the effects of each of the three drivers separately suggest that by mid-century climate change will have the largest overall effect on this suite of ecosystem metrics due to substantial negative effects on coral cover. The effects of fishing were also important, negatively influencing five out of the six metrics. Moreover, LBSP exacerbates this effect for all metrics but not quite as badly as would be expected under additive assumptions, although the magnitude of the effects of LBSP are sensitive to uncertainty associated with primary productivity. Over longer time spans (i.e., 65 year simulations), climate change impacts have a slight positive interaction with other drivers

  12. An Integrated Coral Reef Ecosystem Model to Support Resource Management under a Changing Climate.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mariska Weijerman

    Full Text Available Millions of people rely on the ecosystem services provided by coral reefs, but sustaining these benefits requires an understanding of how reefs and their biotic communities are affected by local human-induced disturbances and global climate change. Ecosystem-based management that explicitly considers the indirect and cumulative effects of multiple disturbances has been recommended and adopted in policies in many places around the globe. Ecosystem models give insight into complex reef dynamics and their responses to multiple disturbances and are useful tools to support planning and implementation of ecosystem-based management. We adapted the Atlantis Ecosystem Model to incorporate key dynamics for a coral reef ecosystem around Guam in the tropical western Pacific. We used this model to quantify the effects of predicted climate and ocean changes and current levels of current land-based sources of pollution (LBSP and fishing. We used the following six ecosystem metrics as indicators of ecosystem state, resilience and harvest potential: 1 ratio of calcifying to non-calcifying benthic groups, 2 trophic level of the community, 3 biomass of apex predators, 4 biomass of herbivorous fishes, 5 total biomass of living groups and 6 the end-to-start ratio of exploited fish groups. Simulation tests of the effects of each of the three drivers separately suggest that by mid-century climate change will have the largest overall effect on this suite of ecosystem metrics due to substantial negative effects on coral cover. The effects of fishing were also important, negatively influencing five out of the six metrics. Moreover, LBSP exacerbates this effect for all metrics but not quite as badly as would be expected under additive assumptions, although the magnitude of the effects of LBSP are sensitive to uncertainty associated with primary productivity. Over longer time spans (i.e., 65 year simulations, climate change impacts have a slight positive interaction with

  13. Exploring the Red Sea seasonal ecosystem functioning using a three-dimensional biophysical model

    KAUST Repository

    Triantafyllou, G.; Yao, F.; Petihakis, G.; Tsiaras, K. P.; Raitsos, D. E.; Hoteit, Ibrahim

    2014-01-01

    The Red Sea exhibits complex hydrodynamic and biogeochemical dynamics, which vary both in time and space. These dynamics have been explored through the development and application of a 3-D ecosystem model. The simulation system comprises two off-line coupled submodels: the MIT General Circulation Model (MITgcm) and the European Regional Seas Ecosystem Model (ERSEM), both adapted for the Red Sea. The results from an annual simulation under climatological forcing are presented. Simulation results are in good agreement with satellite and in situ data illustrating the role of the physical processes in determining the evolution and variability of the Red Sea ecosystem. The model was able to reproduce the main features of the Red Sea ecosystem functioning, including the exchange with the Gulf of Aden, which is a major driving mechanism for the whole Red Sea ecosystem and the winter overturning taking place in the north. Some model limitations, mainly related to the dynamics of the extended reef system located in the southern part of the Red Sea, which is not currently represented in the model, still need to be addressed.

  14. Exploring the Red Sea seasonal ecosystem functioning using a three-dimensional biophysical model

    KAUST Repository

    Triantafyllou, G.

    2014-03-01

    The Red Sea exhibits complex hydrodynamic and biogeochemical dynamics, which vary both in time and space. These dynamics have been explored through the development and application of a 3-D ecosystem model. The simulation system comprises two off-line coupled submodels: the MIT General Circulation Model (MITgcm) and the European Regional Seas Ecosystem Model (ERSEM), both adapted for the Red Sea. The results from an annual simulation under climatological forcing are presented. Simulation results are in good agreement with satellite and in situ data illustrating the role of the physical processes in determining the evolution and variability of the Red Sea ecosystem. The model was able to reproduce the main features of the Red Sea ecosystem functioning, including the exchange with the Gulf of Aden, which is a major driving mechanism for the whole Red Sea ecosystem and the winter overturning taking place in the north. Some model limitations, mainly related to the dynamics of the extended reef system located in the southern part of the Red Sea, which is not currently represented in the model, still need to be addressed.

  15. A spatial ecosystem and populations dynamics model (SEAPODYM) Modeling of tuna and tuna-like populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lehodey, Patrick; Senina, Inna; Murtugudde, Raghu

    2008-09-01

    An enhanced version of the spatial ecosystem and population dynamics model SEAPODYM is presented to describe spatial dynamics of tuna and tuna-like species in the Pacific Ocean at monthly resolution over 1° grid-boxes. The simulations are driven by a bio-physical environment predicted from a coupled ocean physical-biogeochemical model. This new version of SEAPODYM includes expanded definitions of habitat indices, movements, and natural mortality based on empirical evidences. A thermal habitat of tuna species is derived from an individual heat budget model. The feeding habitat is computed according to the accessibility of tuna predator cohorts to different vertically migrating and non-migrating micronekton (mid-trophic) functional groups. The spawning habitat is based on temperature and the coincidence of spawning fish with presence or absence of predators and food for larvae. The successful larval recruitment is linked to spawning stock biomass. Larvae drift with currents, while immature and adult tuna can move of their own volition, in addition to being advected by currents. A food requirement index is computed to adjust locally the natural mortality of cohorts based on food demand and accessibility to available forage components. Together these mechanisms induce bottom-up and top-down effects, and intra- (i.e. between cohorts) and inter-species interactions. The model is now fully operational for running multi-species, multi-fisheries simulations, and the structure of the model allows a validation from multiple data sources. An application with two tuna species showing different biological characteristics, skipjack ( Katsuwonus pelamis) and bigeye ( Thunnus obesus), is presented to illustrate the capacity of the model to capture many important features of spatial dynamics of these two different tuna species in the Pacific Ocean. The actual validation is presented in a companion paper describing the approach to have a rigorous mathematical parameter optimization

  16. Value Creation in the Internet of Things: Mapping Business Models and Ecosystem Roles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Heini Ikävalko

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The increasing connectivity provided by the Internet of Things (IoT supports novel business opportunities for actors in overlapping service systems. Therefore, the co-creative nature of IoT business needs to be further studied. This article reports an empirical study on a European IoT initiative. It contributes to the understudied area of IoT ecosystem dynamics by describing different actor roles and activities in the IoT use cases, and their implications for value creation in IoT ecosystems. Our findings show how IoT ecosystem actors may take the roles of ideator, designer, or intermediary in different IoT design layers, and we recommend this perspective to better understand and describe ecosystem business models. We also discuss the theoretical and managerial implications of our findings.

  17. Evolving software products, the design of a water-related modeling software ecosystem

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Manikas, Konstantinos

    2017-01-01

    more than 50 years ago. However, a radical change of software products to evolve both in the software engineering as much as the organizational and business aspects in a disruptive manner are rather rare. In this paper, we report on the transformation of one of the market leader product series in water......-related calculation and modeling from a traditional business-as-usual series of products to an evolutionary software ecosystem. We do so by relying on existing concepts on software ecosystem analysis to analyze the future ecosystem. We report and elaborate on the main focus points necessary for this transition. We...... argue for the generalization of our focus points to the transition from traditional business-as-usual software products to software ecosystems....

  18. Ecosystem services sustainability in the Mediterranean Sea: assessment of status and trends using multiple modelling approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liquete, Camino; Piroddi, Chiara; Macías, Diego; Druon, Jean-Noël; Zulian, Grazia

    2016-09-01

    Mediterranean ecosystems support important processes and functions that bring direct benefits to human society. Yet, marine ecosystem services are usually overlooked due to the challenges in identifying and quantifying them. This paper proposes the application of several biophysical and ecosystem modelling approaches to assess spatially and temporally the sustainable use and supply of selected marine ecosystem services. Such services include food provision, water purification, coastal protection, lifecycle maintenance and recreation, focusing on the Mediterranean region. Overall, our study found a higher number of decreasing than increasing trends in the natural capacity of the ecosystems to provide marine and coastal services, while in contrast the opposite was observed to be true for the realised flow of services to humans. Such a study paves the way towards an effective support for Blue Growth and the European maritime policies, although little attention is paid to the quantification of marine ecosystem services in this context. We identify a key challenge of integrating biophysical and socio-economic models as a necessary step to further this research.

  19. A multi-model analysis of risk of ecosystem shifts under climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Warszawski, Lila; Ostberg, Sebastian; Frieler, Katja; Lucht, Wolfgang; Schaphoff, Sibyll; Buechner, Matthias; Piontek, Franziska; Friend, Andrew; Keribin, Rozenn; Rademacher, Tim Tito; Beerling, David; Lomas, Mark; Cadule, Patricia; Ciais, Philippe; Clark, Douglas B; Kahana, Ron; Ito, Akihiko; Nishina, Kazuya; Kleidon, Axel; Pavlick, Ryan

    2013-01-01

    Climate change may pose a high risk of change to Earth’s ecosystems: shifting climatic boundaries may induce changes in the biogeochemical functioning and structures of ecosystems that render it difficult for endemic plant and animal species to survive in their current habitats. Here we aggregate changes in the biogeochemical ecosystem state as a proxy for the risk of these shifts at different levels of global warming. Estimates are based on simulations from seven global vegetation models (GVMs) driven by future climate scenarios, allowing for a quantification of the related uncertainties. 5–19% of the naturally vegetated land surface is projected to be at risk of severe ecosystem change at 2 ° C of global warming (ΔGMT) above 1980–2010 levels. However, there is limited agreement across the models about which geographical regions face the highest risk of change. The extent of regions at risk of severe ecosystem change is projected to rise with ΔGMT, approximately doubling between ΔGMT = 2 and 3 ° C, and reaching a median value of 35% of the naturally vegetated land surface for ΔGMT = 4 °C. The regions projected to face the highest risk of severe ecosystem changes above ΔGMT = 4 °C or earlier include the tundra and shrublands of the Tibetan Plateau, grasslands of eastern India, the boreal forests of northern Canada and Russia, the savanna region in the Horn of Africa, and the Amazon rainforest. (letter)

  20. Time series modeling with pruned multi-layer perceptron and 2-stage damped least-squares method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Voyant, Cyril; Tamas, Wani; Paoli, Christophe; Balu, Aurélia; Muselli, Marc; Nivet, Marie-Laure; Notton, Gilles

    2014-01-01

    A Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) defines a family of artificial neural networks often used in TS modeling and forecasting. Because of its ''black box'' aspect, many researchers refuse to use it. Moreover, the optimization (often based on the exhaustive approach where ''all'' configurations are tested) and learning phases of this artificial intelligence tool (often based on the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm; LMA) are weaknesses of this approach (exhaustively and local minima). These two tasks must be repeated depending on the knowledge of each new problem studied, making the process, long, laborious and not systematically robust. In this paper a pruning process is proposed. This method allows, during the training phase, to carry out an inputs selecting method activating (or not) inter-nodes connections in order to verify if forecasting is improved. We propose to use iteratively the popular damped least-squares method to activate inputs and neurons. A first pass is applied to 10% of the learning sample to determine weights significantly different from 0 and delete other. Then a classical batch process based on LMA is used with the new MLP. The validation is done using 25 measured meteorological TS and cross-comparing the prediction results of the classical LMA and the 2-stage LMA

  1. Carbon and energy fluxes in cropland ecosystems: a model-data comparison

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lokupitiya, E.; Denning, A. S.; Schaefer, K.; Ricciuto, D.; Anderson, R.; Arain, M. A.; Baker, I.; Barr, A. G.; Chen, G.; Chen, J. M.; Ciais, P.; Cook, D. R.; Dietze, M.; El Maayar, M.; Fischer, M.; Grant, R.; Hollinger, D.; Izaurralde, C.; Jain, A.; Kucharik, C.; Li, Z.; Liu, S.; Li, L.; Matamala, R.; Peylin, P.; Price, D.; Running, S. W.; Sahoo, A.; Sprintsin, M.; Suyker, A. E.; Tian, H.; Tonitto, C.; Torn, M.; Verbeeck, Hans; Verma, S. B.; Xue, Y.

    2016-06-03

    Croplands are highly productive ecosystems that contribute to land–atmosphere exchange of carbon, energy, and water during their short growing seasons. We evaluated and compared net ecosystem exchange (NEE), latent heat flux (LE), and sensible heat flux (H) simulated by a suite of ecosystem models at five agricultural eddy covariance flux tower sites in the central United States as part of the North American Carbon Program Site Synthesis project. Most of the models overestimated H and underestimated LE during the growing season, leading to overall higher Bowen ratios compared to the observations. Most models systematically under predicted NEE, especially at rain-fed sites. Certain crop-specific models that were developed considering the high productivity and associated physiological changes in specific crops better predicted the NEE and LE at both rain-fed and irrigated sites. Models with specific parameterization for different crops better simulated the inter-annual variability of NEE for maize-soybean rotation compared to those models with a single generic crop type. Stratification according to basic model formulation and phenological methodology did not explain significant variation in model performance across these sites and crops. The under prediction of NEE and LE and over prediction of H by most of the models suggests that models developed and parameterized for natural ecosystems cannot accurately predict the more robust physiology of highly bred and intensively managed crop ecosystems. When coupled in Earth System Models, it is likely that the excessive physiological stress simulated in many land surface component models leads to overestimation of temperature and atmospheric boundary layer depth, and underestimation of humidity and CO2 seasonal uptake over agricultural regions.

  2. Carbon and energy fluxes in cropland ecosystems: a model-data comparison

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lokupitiya, E.; Denning, A. Scott; Schaefer, K.; Ricciuto, D.; Anderson, R.; Arain, M. A.; Baker, I.; Barr, A. G.; Chen, G.; Chen, J.M.; Ciais, P.; Cook, D.R.; Dietze, M.C.; El Maayar, M.; Fischer, M.; Grant, R.; Hollinger, D.; Izaurralde, C.; Jain, A.; Kucharik, C.J.; Li, Z.; Liu, S.; Li, L.; Matamala, R.; Peylin, P.; Price, D.; Running, S. W.; Sahoo, A.; Sprintsin, M.; Suyker, A.E.; Tian, H.; Tonitto, Christina; Torn, M.S.; Verbeeck, Hans; Verma, S.B.; Xue, Y.

    2016-01-01

    Croplands are highly productive ecosystems that contribute to land–atmosphere exchange of carbon, energy, and water during their short growing seasons. We evaluated and compared net ecosystem exchange (NEE), latent heat flux (LE), and sensible heat flux (H) simulated by a suite of ecosystem models at five agricultural eddy covariance flux tower sites in the central United States as part of the North American Carbon Program Site Synthesis project. Most of the models overestimated H and underestimated LE during the growing season, leading to overall higher Bowen ratios compared to the observations. Most models systematically under predicted NEE, especially at rain-fed sites. Certain crop-specific models that were developed considering the high productivity and associated physiological changes in specific crops better predicted the NEE and LE at both rain-fed and irrigated sites. Models with specific parameterization for different crops better simulated the inter-annual variability of NEE for maize-soybean rotation compared to those models with a single generic crop type. Stratification according to basic model formulation and phenological methodology did not explain significant variation in model performance across these sites and crops. The under prediction of NEE and LE and over prediction of H by most of the models suggests that models developed and parameterized for natural ecosystems cannot accurately predict the more robust physiology of highly bred and intensively managed crop ecosystems. When coupled in Earth System Models, it is likely that the excessive physiological stress simulated in many land surface component models leads to overestimation of temperature and atmospheric boundary layer depth, and underestimation of humidity and CO2 seasonal uptake over agricultural regions.

  3. Ecosystem Model Performance at Wetlands: Results from the North American Carbon Program Site Synthesis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sulman, B. N.; Desai, A. R.; Schroeder, N. M.; NACP Site Synthesis Participants

    2011-12-01

    Northern peatlands contain a significant fraction of the global carbon pool, and their responses to hydrological change are likely to be important factors in future carbon cycle-climate feedbacks. Global-scale carbon cycle modeling studies typically use general ecosystem models with coarse spatial resolution, often without peatland-specific processes. Here, seven ecosystem models were used to simulate CO2 fluxes at three field sites in Canada and the northern United States, including two nutrient-rich fens and one nutrient-poor, sphagnum-dominated bog, from 2002-2006. Flux residuals (simulated - observed) were positively correlated with measured water table for both gross ecosystem productivity (GEP) and ecosystem respiration (ER) at the two fen sites for all models, and were positively correlated with water table at the bog site for the majority of models. Modeled diurnal cycles at fen sites agreed well with eddy covariance measurements overall. Eddy covariance GEP and ER were higher during dry periods than during wet periods, while model results predicted either the opposite relationship or no significant difference. At the bog site, eddy covariance GEP had no significant dependence on water table, while models predicted higher GEP during wet periods. All models significantly over-estimated GEP at the bog site, and all but one over-estimated ER at the bog site. Carbon cycle models in peatland-rich regions could be improved by incorporating better models or measurements of hydrology and by inhibiting GEP and ER rates under saturated conditions. Bogs and fens likely require distinct treatments in ecosystem models due to differences in nutrients, peat properties, and plant communities.

  4. Modelling surface energy fluxes over a Dehesa ecosystem using a two-source energy balance model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andreu, Ana; Kustas, William. P.; Anderson, Martha C.; Carrara, Arnaud; Patrocinio Gonzalez-Dugo, Maria

    2013-04-01

    The Dehesa is the most widespread agroforestry land-use system in Europe, covering more than 3 million hectares in the Iberian Peninsula and Greece (Grove and Rackham, 2001; Papanastasis, 2004). It is an agro-silvo-pastural ecosystem consisting of widely-spaced oak trees (mostly Quercus ilex L.), combined with crops, pasture and Mediterranean shrubs, and it is recognized as an example of sustainable land use and for his importance in the rural economy (Diaz et al., 1997; Plieninger and Wilbrand, 2001). The ecosystem is influenced by a Mediterranean climate, with recurrent and severe droughts. Over the last decades the Dehesa has faced multiple environmental threats, derived from intensive agricultural use and socio-economic changes, which have caused environmental degradation of the area, namely reduction in tree density and stocking rates, changes in soil properties and hydrological processes and an increase of soil erosion (Coelho et al. 2004; Schnabel and Ferreira, 2004; Montoya 1998; Pulido and Díaz, 2005). Understanding the hydrological, atmospheric and physiological processes that affect the functioning of the ecosystem will improve the management and conservation of the Dehesa. One of the key metrics in assessing ecosystem health, particularly in this water-limited environment, is the capability of monitoring evaporation (ET). To make large area assessments requires the use of remote sensing. Thermal-based energy balance techniques that distinguish soil/substrate and vegetation contributions to the radiative temperature and radiation/turbulent fluxes have proven to be reliable in such semi-arid sparse canopy-cover landscapes. In particular, the two-source energy balance (TSEB) model of Norman et al. (1995) and Kustas and Norman (1999) has shown to be robust for a wide range of partially-vegetated landscapes. The TSEB formulation is evaluated at a flux tower site located in center Spain (Majadas del Tietar, Caceres). Its application in this environment is

  5. Linking ecosystem services with state-and-transition models to evaluate rangeland management decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lohani, S.; Heilman, P.; deSteiguer, J. E.; Guertin, D. P.; Wissler, C.; McClaran, M. P.

    2014-12-01

    Quantifying ecosystem services is a crucial topic for land management decision making. However, market prices are usually not able to capture all the ecosystem services and disservices. Ecosystem services from rangelands, that cover 70% of the world's land area, are even less well-understood since knowledge of rangelands is limited. This study generated a management framework for rangelands that uses remote sensing to generate state and transition models (STMs) for a large area and a linear programming (LP) model that uses ecosystem services to evaluate natural and/or management induced transitions as described in the STM. The LP optimization model determines the best management plan for a plot of semi-arid land in the Empire Ranch in southeastern Arizona. The model allocated land among management activities (do nothing, grazing, fire, and brush removal) to optimize net benefits and determined the impact of monetizing environmental services and disservices on net benefits, acreage allocation and production output. The ecosystem services under study were forage production (AUM/ac/yr), sediment (lbs/ac/yr), water runoff (inches/yr), soil loss (lbs/ac/yr) and recreation (thousands of number of visitors/ac/yr). The optimization model was run for three different scenarios - private rancher, public rancher including environmental services and excluding disservices, and public rancher including both services and disservices. The net benefit was the highest for the public rancher excluding the disservices. A result from the study is a constrained optimization model that incorporates ecosystem services to analyze investments on conservation and management activities. Rangeland managers can use this model to understand and explain, not prescribe, the tradeoffs of management investments.

  6. Bayesian calibration of terrestrial ecosystem models: a study of advanced Markov chain Monte Carlo methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Dan; Ricciuto, Daniel; Walker, Anthony; Safta, Cosmin; Munger, William

    2017-09-01

    Calibration of terrestrial ecosystem models is important but challenging. Bayesian inference implemented by Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling provides a comprehensive framework to estimate model parameters and associated uncertainties using their posterior distributions. The effectiveness and efficiency of the method strongly depend on the MCMC algorithm used. In this work, a differential evolution adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) algorithm is used to estimate posterior distributions of 21 parameters for the data assimilation linked ecosystem carbon (DALEC) model using 14 years of daily net ecosystem exchange data collected at the Harvard Forest Environmental Measurement Site eddy-flux tower. The calibration of DREAM results in a better model fit and predictive performance compared to the popular adaptive Metropolis (AM) scheme. Moreover, DREAM indicates that two parameters controlling autumn phenology have multiple modes in their posterior distributions while AM only identifies one mode. The application suggests that DREAM is very suitable to calibrate complex terrestrial ecosystem models, where the uncertain parameter size is usually large and existence of local optima is always a concern. In addition, this effort justifies the assumptions of the error model used in Bayesian calibration according to the residual analysis. The result indicates that a heteroscedastic, correlated, Gaussian error model is appropriate for the problem, and the consequent constructed likelihood function can alleviate the underestimation of parameter uncertainty that is usually caused by using uncorrelated error models.

  7. Exploring Third-Grade Student Model-Based Explanations about Plant Relationships within an Ecosystem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zangori, Laura; Forbes, Cory T.

    2015-01-01

    Elementary students should have opportunities to develop scientific models to reason and build understanding about how and why plants depend on relationships within an ecosystem for growth and survival. However, scientific modeling practices are rarely included within elementary science learning environments and disciplinary content is often…

  8. A general equilibrium model of ecosystem services in a river basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Travis Warziniack

    2014-01-01

    This study builds a general equilibrium model of ecosystem services, with sectors of the economy competing for use of the environment. The model recognizes that production processes in the real world require a combination of natural and human inputs, and understanding the value of these inputs and their competing uses is necessary when considering policies of resource...

  9. Predicting ecosystem functioning from plant traits: Results from a multi-scale ecophsiological modeling approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wijk, van M.T.

    2007-01-01

    Ecosystem functioning is the result of processes working at a hierarchy of scales. The representation of these processes in a model that is mathematically tractable and ecologically meaningful is a big challenge. In this paper I describe an individual based model (PLACO¿PLAnt COmpetition) that

  10. Semantic Model of Variability and Capabilities of IoT Applications for Embedded Software Ecosystems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tomlein, Matus; Grønbæk, Kaj

    2016-01-01

    reasoning to resolve context requirements. We present the implications on the architecture of the ecosystem and the concepts defined in the model. Finally, we discuss the evaluation of the model and its benefits and liabilities. Although the approach results in more complex descriptions of applications, we...

  11. Study on residues of 14C-Fenitrothion in a model rice-fish ecosystem and in a field rice-fish ecosystem

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Zhongliang; Wang Huaxin; Guo Dazhi; Chen Zhiyu; Wu Suchueng

    1993-01-01

    Residues of 14 C-fenitrothion in a model rice-fish ecosystem and field rice-fish ecosystem were studied. When equal amounts of the pesticide were applied, the extractable residues in brown rice (equivalent to 34.3±1.9 μg/kg fenitrothion) and rice stems and leaves (20.9±1.5 μg/kg) of the model rice-fish ecosystem were 10-15 times higher than that of the field rice-fish ecosystem (4.48±0.13 μg/kg and 1.27±0.34 μg/kg respectively). Residues in upper part of the soil (6.50±0.1--8.10±0.2 μg/kg) and lower part of the soil (1.30±0.1--1.50±0.1 μg/kg) of the model rice-fish ecosystem were 10-40 times higher than that of the field rice-fish ecosystem (0.17±0.01 μg/kg). The extractable residues in paddy water of the model ecosystem (0.30 ± 0.01 μg/kg) were similar to that of the field ecosystem (0.20±0.02 μg/kg). When the fenitrothion was sprayed on the rice plants, residues in brown rice, fish body, soil and paddy water were lower than those when the pesticide was spread on the surface of the soil. (author). 4 refs, 2 tabs

  12. Linear compartment model of plutonium dynamics in a deciduous forest ecosystem

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garten, C.T. Jr.; Gardner, R.H.; Dahlman, R.C.

    1977-01-01

    Systems ecology techniques have been useful in simulating the fate and dynamics of radionuclides in forest ecosystems. The applications of systems models in this context are twofold: projection of the time-dependent distribution of radioisotopes among various ecosystems components, and manipulation of the modeled system to determine the sensitivity of components to variation in transfer coefficients and, thereby, identify critical fluxes affecting system behavior. The present paper describes a systems model that projects the possible fate of plutonium in a deciduous forest ecosystem. The isotopes of interest are 239 Pu and 240 Pu which have physical half lives of 2.44 x 10 4 and 6540 years, respectively. These isotopes are indistinguishable by alpha spectrometry hence 239 Pu is used to refer to both

  13. Assimilating satellite-based canopy height within an ecosystem model to estimate aboveground forest biomass

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joetzjer, E.; Pillet, M.; Ciais, P.; Barbier, N.; Chave, J.; Schlund, M.; Maignan, F.; Barichivich, J.; Luyssaert, S.; Hérault, B.; von Poncet, F.; Poulter, B.

    2017-07-01

    Despite advances in Earth observation and modeling, estimating tropical biomass remains a challenge. Recent work suggests that integrating satellite measurements of canopy height within ecosystem models is a promising approach to infer biomass. We tested the feasibility of this approach to retrieve aboveground biomass (AGB) at three tropical forest sites by assimilating remotely sensed canopy height derived from a texture analysis algorithm applied to the high-resolution Pleiades imager in the Organizing Carbon and Hydrology in Dynamic Ecosystems Canopy (ORCHIDEE-CAN) ecosystem model. While mean AGB could be estimated within 10% of AGB derived from census data in average across sites, canopy height derived from Pleiades product was spatially too smooth, thus unable to accurately resolve large height (and biomass) variations within the site considered. The error budget was evaluated in details, and systematic errors related to the ORCHIDEE-CAN structure contribute as a secondary source of error and could be overcome by using improved allometric equations.

  14. Estimating the impacts of conservation on ecosystem services and poverty by integrating modeling and evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferraro, Paul J; Hanauer, Merlin M; Miteva, Daniela A; Nelson, Joanna L; Pattanayak, Subhrendu K; Nolte, Christoph; Sims, Katharine R E

    2015-06-16

    Scholars have made great advances in modeling and mapping ecosystem services, and in assigning economic values to these services. This modeling and valuation scholarship is often disconnected from evidence about how actual conservation programs have affected ecosystem services, however. Without a stronger evidence base, decision makers find it difficult to use the insights from modeling and valuation to design effective policies and programs. To strengthen the evidence base, scholars have advanced our understanding of the causal pathways between conservation actions and environmental outcomes, but their studies measure impacts on imperfect proxies for ecosystem services (e.g., avoidance of deforestation). To be useful to decision makers, these impacts must be translated into changes in ecosystem services and values. To illustrate how this translation can be done, we estimated the impacts of protected areas in Brazil, Costa Rica, Indonesia, and Thailand on carbon storage in forests. We found that protected areas in these conservation hotspots have stored at least an additional 1,000 Mt of CO2 in forests and have delivered ecosystem services worth at least $5 billion. This aggregate impact masks important spatial heterogeneity, however. Moreover, the spatial variability of impacts on carbon storage is the not the same as the spatial variability of impacts on avoided deforestation. These findings lead us to describe a research program that extends our framework to study other ecosystem services, to uncover the mechanisms by which ecosystem protection benefits humans, and to tie cost-benefit analyses to conservation planning so that we can obtain the greatest return on scarce conservation funds.

  15. Advancing research on animal-transported subsidies by integrating animal movement and ecosystem modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Earl, Julia E; Zollner, Patrick A

    2017-09-01

    Connections between ecosystems via animals (active subsidies) support ecosystem services and contribute to numerous ecological effects. Thus, the ability to predict the spatial distribution of active subsidies would be useful for ecology and conservation. Previous work modelling active subsidies focused on implicit space or static distributions, which treat passive and active subsidies similarly. Active subsidies are fundamentally different from passive subsidies, because animals can respond to the process of subsidy deposition and ecosystem changes caused by subsidy deposition. We propose addressing this disparity by integrating animal movement and ecosystem ecology to advance active subsidy investigations, make more accurate predictions of subsidy spatial distributions, and enable a mechanistic understanding of subsidy spatial distributions. We review selected quantitative techniques that could be used to accomplish integration and lead to novel insights. The ultimate objective for these types of studies is predictions of subsidy spatial distributions from characteristics of the subsidy and the movement strategy employed by animals that transport subsidies. These advances will be critical in informing the management of ecosystem services, species conservation and ecosystem degradation related to active subsidies. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2017 British Ecological Society.

  16. Studies on Interpretive Structural Model for Forest Ecosystem Management Decision-Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Suqing; Gao, Xiumei; Zen, Qunying; Zhou, Yuanman; Huang, Yuequn; Han, Weidong; Li, Linfeng; Li, Jiping; Pu, Yingshan

    Characterized by their openness, complexity and large scale, forest ecosystems interweave themselves with social system, economic system and other natural ecosystems, thus complicating both their researches and management decision-making. According to the theories of sustainable development, hierarchy-competence levels, cybernetics and feedback, 25 factors have been chosen from human society, economy and nature that affect forest ecosystem management so that they are systematically analyzed via developing an interpretive structural model (ISM) to reveal their relationships and positions in the forest ecosystem management. The ISM consists of 7 layers with the 3 objectives for ecosystem management being the top layer (the seventh layer). The ratio between agricultural production value and industrial production value as the bases of management decision-making in forest ecosystems becomes the first layer at the bottom because it has great impacts on the values of society and the development trends of forestry, while the factors of climatic environments, intensive management extent, management measures, input-output ratio as well as landscape and productivity are arranged from the second to sixth layers respectively.

  17. Model development of a participatory Bayesian network for coupling ecosystem services into integrated water resources management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xue, Jie; Gui, Dongwei; Lei, Jiaqiang; Zeng, Fanjiang; Mao, Donglei; Zhang, Zhiwei

    2017-11-01

    There is an increasing consensus on the importance of coupling ecosystem services (ES) into integrated water resource management (IWRM), due to a wide range of benefits to human from the ES. This paper proposes an ES-based IWRM framework within which a participatory Bayesian network (BN) model is developed to assist with the coupling between ES and IWRM. The framework includes three steps: identifying water-related services of ecosystems; analysis of the tradeoff and synergy among users of water; and ES-based IWRM implementation using the participatory BN model. We present the development, evaluation and application of the participatory BN model with the involvement of four participant groups (stakeholders, water manager, water management experts, and research team) in Qira oasis area, Northwest China. As a typical catchment-scale region, the Qira oasis area is facing severe water competition between the demands of human activities and natural ecosystems. Results demonstrate that the BN model developed provides effective integration of ES into a quantitative IWMR framework via public negotiation and feedback. The network results, sensitivity evaluation, and management scenarios are broadly accepted by the participant groups. The intervention scenarios from the model conclude that any water management measure remains unable to sustain the ecosystem health in water-related ES. Greater cooperation among the stakeholders is highly necessary for dealing with such water conflicts. In particular, a proportion of the agricultural water saved through improving water-use efficiency should be transferred to natural ecosystems via water trade. The BN model developed is appropriate for areas throughout the world in which there is intense competition for water between human activities and ecosystems.

  18. Impaired ecosystem process despite little effects on populations: modeling combined effects of warming and toxicants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galic, Nika; Grimm, Volker; Forbes, Valery E

    2017-08-01

    Freshwater ecosystems are exposed to many stressors, including toxic chemicals and global warming, which can impair, separately or in combination, important processes in organisms and hence higher levels of organization. Investigating combined effects of warming and toxicants has been a topic of little research, but neglecting their combined effects may seriously misguide management efforts. To explore how toxic chemicals and warming, alone and in combination, propagate across levels of biological organization, including a key ecosystem process, we developed an individual-based model (IBM) of a freshwater amphipod detritivore, Gammarus pseudolimnaeus, feeding on leaf litter. In this IBM, life history emerges from the individuals' energy budgets. We quantified, in different warming scenarios (+1-+4 °C), the effects of hypothetical toxicants on suborganismal processes, including feeding, somatic and maturity maintenance, growth, and reproduction. Warming reduced mean adult body sizes and population abundance and biomass, but only in the warmest scenarios. Leaf litter processing, a key contributor to ecosystem functioning and service delivery in streams, was consistently enhanced by warming, through strengthened interaction between the detritivorous consumer and its resource. Toxicant effects on feeding and maintenance resulted in initially small adverse effects on consumers, but ultimately led to population extinction and loss of ecosystem process. Warming in combination with toxicants had little effect at the individual and population levels, but ecosystem process was impaired in the warmer scenarios. Our results suggest that exposure to the same amount of toxicants can disproportionately compromise ecosystem processing depending on global warming scenarios; for example, reducing organismal feeding rates by 50% will reduce resource processing by 50% in current temperature conditions, but by up to 200% with warming of 4 °C. Our study has implications for

  19. Understanding variation in ecosystem pulse responses to wetting: Benefits of data-model coupling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jenerette, D.

    2011-12-01

    Metabolic pulses of activity are a common ecological response to intermittently available resources and in water-limited ecosystems these pulses often occur in response to wetting. Net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE) in response to episodic wetting events is hypothesized to have a complex trajectory reflecting the distinct responses, or "pulses", of respiration and photosynthesis. To help direct research activities a physiological-based model of whole ecosystem metabolic activity up- and down-regulation was developed to investigate ecosystem energy balance and gas exchange pulse responses following precipitation events. This model was to investigate pulse dynamics from a local network of sites in southern Arizona, a global network of eddy-covariance ecosystem monitoring sites, laboratory incubation studies, and field manipulations. Pulse responses were found to be ubiquitous across ecosystem types. These pulses had a highly variable influence on NEE following wetting, ranging from large net sinks to sources of CO2 to the atmosphere. Much of the variability in pulse responses of NEE could be described through a coupled up- and down-regulation pulse response model. Respiration pulses were hypothesized to occur through a reduction in whole ecosystem activation energy; this model was both useful and corroborated through laboratory incubation studies of soil respiration. Using the Fluxnet eddy-covariance measurement database event specific responses were combined with the pulse model into an event specific twenty-five day net flux calculation. Across all events observed a general net accumulation of CO2 following a precipitation event, with the largest net uptake within deciduous broadleaf forests and smallest within grasslands. NEE pulses favored greater uptake when pre-event ecosystem respiration rates and total precipitation were higher. While the latter was expected, the former adds to previous theory by suggesting a larger net uptake of CO2 when pre-event metabolic

  20. Capacity building for tropical coastal ecosystems management using a dynamic teaching model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lindberg, Annika Büchert; Nielsen, Thomas; Macintosh, Donald

    2008-01-01

    This learning opportunity illustrates effective capacity building through a dynamic teaching model that involves you and gives you personal experiences. The teaching model is easy to adapt to local environments and the learning opportunity is relevant to everyone working in coastal natural resource...... in combining knowledge and methods and applying these in a real life situation. Objectives: The participants will apply the acquired knowledge of ecosystems and project management tools when describing ecosystem services and when planning a project The participants will act as different stakeholders during...... the role play and hereby gain experience from a situation mimicking real life project situation.; The participants will experience how dynamic teaching can improve capacity building....

  1. Measuring, modeling and mapping ecosystem services in the Eastern Arc Mountains of Tanzania

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fisher, B.; Turner, R. K.; Burgess, Neil David

    2011-01-01

    sourced data, data-driven models, and socio-economic scenarios coupled with rule-based assumptions. Here we describe the construction of this spatial information and how it can help to shed light on the complex relationships between ecological and social systems. There are obvious difficulties......In light of the significance that ecosystem service research is likely to play in linking conservation activities and human welfare, systematic approaches to measuring, modeling and mapping ecosystem services (and their value to society) are sorely needed. In this paper we outline one such approach...

  2. Qualitative models to predict impacts of human interventions in a wetland ecosystem

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Loiselle

    2002-07-01

    Full Text Available The large shallow wetlands that dominate much of the South American continent are rich in biodiversity and complexity. Many of these undamaged ecosystems are presently being examined for their potential economic utility, putting pressure on local authorities and the conservation community to find ways of correctly utilising the available natural resources without compromising the ecosystem functioning and overall integrity. Contrary to many northern hemisphere ecosystems, there have been little long term ecological studies of these systems, leading to a lack of quantitative data on which to construct ecological or resource use models. As a result, decision makers, even well meaning ones, have difficulty in determining if particular economic activities can potentially cause significant damage to the ecosystem and how one should go about monitoring the impacts of such activities. While the direct impact of many activities is often known, the secondary indirect impacts are usually less clear and can depend on local ecological conditions.

    The use of qualitative models is a helpful tool to highlight potential feedback mechanisms and secondary effects of management action on ecosystem integrity. The harvesting of a single, apparently abundant, species can have indirect secondary effects on key trophic and abiotic compartments. In this paper, loop model analysis is used to qualitatively examine secondary effects of potential economic activities in a large wetland area in northeast Argentina, the Esteros del Ibera. Based on interaction with local actors together with observed ecological information, loop models were constructed to reflect relationships between biotic and abiotic compartments. A series of analyses were made to study the effect of different economic scenarios on key ecosystem compartments. Important impacts on key biotic compartments (phytoplankton, zooplankton, ichthyofauna, aquatic macrophytes and on the abiotic environment

  3. Computer modelling for ecosystem service assessment: Chapter 4.4

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunford, Robert; Harrison, Paula; Bagstad, Kenneth J.

    2017-01-01

    Computer models are simplified representations of the environment that allow biophysical, ecological, and/or socio-economic characteristics to be quantified and explored. Modelling approaches differ from mapping approaches (Chapter 5) as (i) they are not forcibly spatial (although many models do produce spatial outputs); (ii) they focus on understanding and quantifying the interactions between different components of social and/or environmental systems and (iii)

  4. Superconductivity in multilayer perovskite. Weak coupling analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koikegami, Shigeru; Yanagisawa, Takashi

    2006-01-01

    We investigate the superconductivity of a three-dimensional d-p model with a multilayer perovskite structure on the basis of the second-order perturbation theory within the weak coupling framework. Our model has been designed with multilayer high-T c superconducting cuprates in mind. In our model, multiple Fermi surfaces appear, and the component of a superconducting gap function develops on each band. We have found that the multilayer structure can stabilize the superconductivity in a wide doping range. (author)

  5. Assessing a multilayered dynamic firn-compaction model for Greenland with ASIRAS radar measurements

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Simonsen, Sebastian Bjerregaard; Stenseng, Lars; Adalgeirsdottir, G.

    2013-01-01

    A method to assess firn compaction using data collected with the Airborne SAR (Synthetic Aperture Radar)/Interferometric Radar Altimeter System (ASIRAS) is developed. For this, we develop a dynamical firn-compaction model that includes meltwater retention. Based on the ASIRAS data, which show...... internal layers as annual horizons in the uppermost firn, the method relies on inferring the age/ depth (internal layers) information from the radar data using a Monte Carlo inversion technique to tune in parallel both the firn model and the atmospheric forcing parameters (temperature and accumulation......). The model is validated against two firn cores, and it is shown that applying both firn densities and age/ depth information for the inversion gives the most accurate understanding of model biases. The method is then applied to a 67 km section of the EGIG line forced by atmospheric output from a regional...

  6. ANALYSIS OF NON-FOURIER THERMAL BEHAVIOUR FOR MULTI-LAYER SKIN MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kuo-Chi Liu

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper studies the effect of micro-structural interaction on bioheat transfer in skin, which was stratified into epidermis, dermis, and subcutaneous. A modified non-Fourier equation of bio-heat transfer was developed based on the second-order Taylor expansion of dual-phase-lag model and can be simplified as the bio-heat transfer equations derived from Pennes' model, thermal wave model, and the linearized form of dual-phase-lag model. It is a fourth order partial differential equation, and the boundary conditions at the interface between two adjacent layers become complicated. There are mathematical difficulties in dealing with such a problem. A hybrid numerical scheme is extended to solve the present problem. The numerical results are in a good agreement with the contents of open literature. It evidences the rationality and reliability of the present results.

  7. A Landscape-level Model for Ecosystem Restoration in the San Francisco Estuary and Its Watershed

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wim Kimmerer

    2005-03-01

    Full Text Available The CALFED Bay-Delta Program is an ambitious effort to restore ecosystems and improve reliability of ecosystem services in California’s Central Valley. Key issues for CALFED and its Ecosystem Restoration Program (ERP include (1 meeting societal demand for multiple, potentially conflicting ecosystem services; (2 the tradeoff among more or less environmentally intrusive approaches to solving problems; (3 whether restoration should focus at the ecosystem level or on individual species; (4 the appropriate response to uncertainty; and (5 the tension between action and investigation. A long-term, landscape-scale perspective is essential for framing the scientific questions underlying these broad issues. We introduce a landscape-scale conceptual model that illustrates linkages, including material flows and animal migration, among the major ecosystem components being described in detail in a series of review papers. This model shows how linkages between ecosystem components result in remote consequences of locally applied restoration actions. The network of linkages is made more complicated by human interventions, which add components not previously a part of the landscape (e.g., salmonid hatcheries and alter or even reverse causal relations. A landscape perspective also helps identify conceptual gaps in CALFED’s restoration strategy, such as climate change and human population growth, which should be explicitly considered in forecasts of the long-term prospects for restoration. A landscape perspective is no panacea; in particular, the effects of restoration at this scale will be difficult to detect. Nevertheless, we advocate integrating investigations of processes at nested, smaller scales as an approach for evaluating effects of individual restoration actions and of the entire program. We believe CALFED and other large restoration programs will be most successful if they are able to integrate both societal expectations and scientific study at the

  8. Coupling ecosystems exposure to nitrogen and species sensitivity to hypoxia: modelling marine eutrophication in LCIA

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cosme, Nuno Miguel Dias; Koski, Marja; Hauschild, Michael Zwicky

    Characterisation modelling in Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA) quantifies impacts of anthropogenic emissions by applying substance-specific impact potentials, or Characterisation Factors (CF), to the amount of substances emitted. Nitrogen (N) emissions from human activities enrich coastal marine...... ecosystems and promote planktonic growth that may lead to marine eutrophication impacts. Excessive algal biomass and dissolved oxygen (DO) depletion typify the ecosystem response to the nutrient input. The present novel method couples a mechanistic model of coastal biological processes that determines...... the ecosystem response (exposure) to anthropogenic N enrichment (eXposure Factor, XF [kgO2·kgN-1]) with the sensitivity of species exposed to oxygen-depleted waters (Effect Factor, EF [(PAF)·m3·kgO2-1], expressed as a Potentially Affected Fraction (PAF) of species). Thus, the coupled indicator (XF*EF, [(PAF)·m3...

  9. Quantifying regional changes in terrestrial carbon storage by extrapolation from local ecosystem models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    King, A W

    1991-12-31

    A general procedure for quantifying regional carbon dynamics by spatial extrapolation of local ecosystem models is presented Monte Carlo simulation to calculate the expected value of one or more local models, explicitly integrating the spatial heterogeneity of variables that influence ecosystem carbon flux and storage. These variables are described by empirically derived probability distributions that are input to the Monte Carlo process. The procedure provides large-scale regional estimates based explicitly on information and understanding acquired at smaller and more accessible scales.Results are presented from an earlier application to seasonal atmosphere-biosphere CO{sub 2} exchange for circumpolar ``subarctic`` latitudes (64{degree}N-90{degree}N). Results suggest that, under certain climatic conditions, these high northern ecosystems could collectively release 0.2 Gt of carbon per year to the atmosphere. I interpret these results with respect to questions about global biospheric sinks for atmospheric CO{sub 2} .

  10. Metabolic fate of 14-C-fenitrothion in a rice field model ecosystem

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nashriyah binti Mat; Nambu, K.; Miyashita, T.; Sakata, S.; Ohshima, M.

    1991-01-01

    Pesticide fenitrothion (Sumithion sup R)is widely used to control rice stem borer and other pests. Its metabolic fate and degradation was studied using the sup 14 C-ring labelled fenitrothion in a model ecosystem consisting of Takarazuka paddy field soil, rice plant (Oryza sativa var. nihonbare), carp fish (Cyprinus carpio L.) and dechlorinated water. Radioactive fenitrothion was applied at a normal rate as used by Japanese farmers and samples of rice plant, fish soil and water were analysed after ten days of application. Fenitrothion was readily metabolized in rice plant and fish and also readily degraded to a number of metabolites in water and flooded soil. Most of the radioactivity applied was found in the soil component of the ecosystem. A trace amount of fenitrooxon, the activated metabolite of fenitrothion was detected only in soil and water. A possible metabolic pathway of fenitrothion in the rice model ecosystem was proposed

  11. Empirical methods for modeling landscape change, ecosystem services, and biodiversity

    Science.gov (United States)

    David Lewis; Ralph. Alig

    2009-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to synthesize recent economics research aimed at integrating discrete-choice econometric models of land-use change with spatially-explicit landscape simulations and quantitative ecology. This research explicitly models changes in the spatial pattern of landscapes in two steps: 1) econometric estimation of parcel-scale transition...

  12. Analytical thermal modelling of multilayered active embedded chips into high density electronic board

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Monier-Vinard Eric

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The recent Printed Wiring Board embedding technology is an attractive packaging alternative that allows a very high degree of miniaturization by stacking multiple layers of embedded chips. This disruptive technology will further increase the thermal management challenges by concentrating heat dissipation at the heart of the organic substrate structure. In order to allow the electronic designer to early analyze the limits of the power dissipation, depending on the embedded chip location inside the board, as well as the thermal interactions with other buried chips or surface mounted electronic components, an analytical thermal modelling approach was established. The presented work describes the comparison of the analytical model results with the numerical models of various embedded chips configurations. The thermal behaviour predictions of the analytical model, found to be within ±10% of relative error, demonstrate its relevance for modelling high density electronic board. Besides the approach promotes a practical solution to study the potential gain to conduct a part of heat flow from the components towards a set of localized cooled board pads.

  13. Development and application of an interactive climate-ecosystem model system

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    CHEN Ming; D. Pollard

    2003-01-01

    A regional climate-ecosystem model system is developed in this study. It overcomes the weakness in traditional one-way coupling models and enables detailed description of interactive process between climate and natural ecosystem. It is applied to interaction study between monsoon climate and ecosystem in East Asia, with emphasis on future climate and ecosystem change scenario forced by doubled CO2. The climate tends to be warmer and wetter under doubled CO2 in Jianghuai and the Yangzi River valley, but it becomes warmer and drier in inland areas of northern and northwestern China. The largest changes and feedbacks between vegetation and climate occur in northern China. Northern inland ecosystems experience considerable degradation and desertification, indicating a marked sensitivity and vulnerability to climatic change. The strongest vegetation response to climate change occurs in northern China and the weakest in southern China. Vegetation feedbacks intensify warming and reduce drying due to increased CO2 during summer in northern China. Generally, vegetation-climate interactions are much stronger in northern China than in southern China.

  14. Towards operational modeling and forecasting of the Iberian shelves ecosystem.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martinho Marta-Almeida

    Full Text Available There is a growing interest on physical and biogeochemical oceanic hindcasts and forecasts from a wide range of users and businesses. In this contribution we present an operational biogeochemical forecast system for the Portuguese and Galician oceanographic regions, where atmospheric, hydrodynamic and biogeochemical variables are integrated. The ocean model ROMS, with a horizontal resolution of 3 km, is forced by the atmospheric model WRF and includes a Nutrients-Phytoplankton-Zooplankton-Detritus biogeochemical module (NPZD. In addition to oceanographic variables, the system predicts the concentration of nitrate, phytoplankton, zooplankton and detritus (mmol N m(-3. Model results are compared against radar currents and remote sensed SST and chlorophyll. Quantitative skill assessment during a summer upwelling period shows that our modelling system adequately represents the surface circulation over the shelf including the observed spatial variability and trends of temperature and chlorophyll concentration. Additionally, the skill assessment also shows some deficiencies like the overestimation of upwelling circulation and consequently, of the duration and intensity of the phytoplankton blooms. These and other departures from the observations are discussed, their origins identified and future improvements suggested. The forecast system is the first of its kind in the region and provides free online distribution of model input and output, as well as comparisons of model results with satellite imagery for qualitative operational assessment of model skill.

  15. NuSTAR calibration facility and multilayer reference database: Optic response model comparison to NuSTAR on-ground calibration data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brejnholt, Nicolai

    . To couple the as-coated multilayer to the actual optics, ray tracing is carried out in a detailed geometric model of the optic, including in-situ measured figure error for the mounted substrates. The effective area as a function of energy estimated from ray tracing is compared to NuSTAR on......The Nuclear Spectroscopic Telescope ARray (NuSTAR) is a NASA Small Explorer mission carrying the first focusing hard X-ray telescope (5 − 80 keV ) to orbit. NuSTAR is slated for launch in 2012. Through a leap in sensitivity, the realization of focusing optics holds promise of heralding in a golden...... the optic response for both on- and off-axis NuSTAR observations, detailed knowledge of the as-coated multilayer is required. The purpose of this thesis is to establish a multilayer reference database. As an integral part of this effort, a hard X-ray calibration facility was designed and constructed. Each...

  16. Comparison of a Mass Balance and an Ecosystem Model Approach when Evaluating the Carbon Cycling in a Lake Ecosystem

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andersson, Eva; Sobek, Sebastian

    2006-01-01

    Carbon budgets are frequently used in order to understand the pathways of organic matter in ecosystems, and they also have an important function in the risk assessment of harmful substances. We compared two approaches, mass balance calculations and an ecosystem budget, to describe carbon processing in a shallow, oligotrophic hardwater lake. Both approaches come to the same main conclusion, namely that the lake is a net auto trophic ecosystem, in spite of its high dissolved organic carbon and low total phosphorus concentrations. However, there were several differences between the carbon budgets, e.g. in the rate of sedimentation and the air-water flux of CO 2 . The largest uncertainty in the mass balance is the contribution of emergent macrophytes to the carbon cycling of the lake, while the ecosystem budget is very sensitive towards the choice of conversion factors and literature values. While the mass balance calculations produced more robust results, the ecosystem budget gave valuable insights into the pathways of organic matter transfer in the ecosystem. We recommend that when using an ecosystem budget for the risk assessment of harmful substances, mass balance calculations should be performed in parallel in order to increase the robustness of the conclusions

  17. Sintering of Multilayered Porous Structures: Part II – Experiments and Model Applications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ni, De Wei; Olevsky, Eugene; Esposito, Vincenzo

    2013-01-01

    Experimental analyses of shrinkage and distortion kinetics during sintering of bilayered porous and dense gadolinium-doped ceria Ce0.9Gd0.1O1.95d structures are carried out, and compared with the theoretical models developed in Part I of this work. A novel approach is developed for the determinat...

  18. The Ecosystem Functions Model: A Tool for Restoration Planning

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Hickey, John T; Dunn, Chris N

    2004-01-01

    .... Army Corps of Engineers Hydrologic Engineering Center (HEC) is developing the EFM and envisions environmental planners, biologists, and engineers using the model to help determine whether proposed alternatives (e.g...

  19. Modeling Engineered Nanomaterials (ENMs) Fate and Transport in Aquatic Ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Under the Toxic Substances Control Act (TSCA), the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is required to perform new chemical reviews of engineered nanomaterials (ENMs) identified in pre-manufacture notices. However, environmental fate models developed for traditional contaminants...

  20. Business model transformation process in the context of business ecosystem

    OpenAIRE

    Heikkinen, A.-M. (Anne-Mari)

    2014-01-01

    Abstract It is current phenomena that business environment has changed and has set new requirements for companies. Companies must adapt to the changes comes from outside its normal business environment and take into consideration wider business environment where it operates. These changes also have set new demands for company business model. Companies Business models need to be changed to match state of art business environ...

  1. Development and validation of predictive simulation model of multi-layer repair welding process by temper bead technique

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Okano, Shigetaka; Miyasaka, Fumikazu; Mochizuki, Masahito; Tanaka, Manabu

    2015-01-01

    Stress corrosion cracking (SCC) has recently been observed in the nickel base alloy weld metal of dissimilar pipe joint used in pressurized water reactor (PWR) . Temper bead technique has been developed as one of repair procedures against SCC applicable in case that post weld heat treatment (PWHT) is difficult to carry out. In this regard, however it is essential to pass the property and performance qualification test to confirm the effect of tempering on the mechanical properties at repair welds before temper bead technique is actually used in practice. Thus the appropriate welding procedure conditions in temper bead technique are determined on the basis of the property and performance qualification testing. It is necessary for certifying the structural soundness and reliability at repair welds but takes a lot of work and time in the present circumstances. Therefore it is desirable to establish the reasonable alternatives for qualifying the property and performance at repair welds. In this study, mathematical modeling and numerical simulation procedures were developed for predicting weld bead configuration and temperature distribution during multi-layer repair welding process by temper bead technique. In the developed simulation technique, characteristics of heat source in temper bead welding are calculated from weld heat input conditions through the arc plasma simulation and then weld bead configuration and temperature distribution during temper bead welding are calculated from characteristics of heat source obtained through the coupling analysis between bead surface shape and thermal conduction. The simulation results were compared with the experimental results under the same welding heat input conditions. As the results, the bead surface shape and temperature distribution, such as A cl lines, were in good agreement between simulation and experimental results. It was concluded that the developed simulation technique has the potential to become useful for

  2. Climate change and Arctic ecosystems: 2. Modeling, paleodata-model comparisons, and future projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaplan, J.O.; Bigelow, N.H.; Prentice, I.C.; Harrison, S.P.; Bartlein, P.J.; Christensen, T.R.; Cramer, W.; Matveyeva, N.V.; McGuire, A.D.; Murray, D.F.; Razzhivin, V.Y.; Smith, B.; Walker, D.A.; Anderson, P.M.; Andreev, A.A.; Brubaker, L.B.; Edwards, M.E.; Lozhkin, A.V.

    2003-01-01

    Large variations in the composition, structure, and function of Arctic ecosystems are determined by climatic gradients, especially of growing-season warmth, soil moisture, and snow cover. A unified circumpolar classification recognizing five types of tundra was developed. The geographic distributions of vegetation types north of 55??N, including the position of the forest limit and the distributions of the tundra types, could be predicted from climatology using a small set of plant functional types embedded in the biogeochemistry-biogeography model BIOME4. Several palaeoclimate simulations for the last glacial maximum (LGM) and mid-Holocene were used to explore the possibility of simulating past vegetation patterns, which are independently known based on pollen data. The broad outlines of observed changes in vegetation were captured. LGM simulations showed the major reduction of forest, the great extension of graminoid and forb tundra, and the restriction of low- and high-shrub tundra (although not all models produced sufficiently dry conditions to mimic the full observed change). Mid-Holocene simulations reproduced the contrast between northward forest extension in western and central Siberia and stability of the forest limit in Beringia. Projection of the effect of a continued exponential increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration, based on a transient ocean-atmosphere simulation including sulfate aerosol effects, suggests a potential for larger changes in Arctic ecosystems during the 21st century than have occurred between mid-Holocene and present. Simulated physiological effects of the CO2 increase (to > 700 ppm) at high latitudes were slight compared with the effects of the change in climate.

  3. Theoretical model for thin ferroelectric films and the multilayer structures based on them

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Starkov, A. S.; Pakhomov, O. V.; Starkov, I. A.

    2013-01-01

    A modified Weiss mean-field theory is used to study the dependence of the properties of a thin ferroelectric film on its thickness. The possibility of introducing gradient terms into the thermodynamic potential is analyzed using the calculus of variations. An integral equation is introduced to generalize the well-known Langevin equation to the case of the boundaries of a ferroelectric. An analysis of this equation leads to the existence of a transition layer at the interface between ferroelectrics or a ferroelectric and a dielectric. The permittivity of this layer is shown to depend on the electric field direction even if the ferroelectrics in contact are homogeneous. The results obtained in terms of the Weiss model are compared with the results of the models based on the correlation effect and the presence of a dielectric layer at the boundary of a ferroelectric and with experimental data

  4. Theoretical model for thin ferroelectric films and the multilayer structures based on them

    Science.gov (United States)

    Starkov, A. S.; Pakhomov, O. V.; Starkov, I. A.

    2013-06-01

    A modified Weiss mean-field theory is used to study the dependence of the properties of a thin ferroelectric film on its thickness. The possibility of introducing gradient terms into the thermodynamic potential is analyzed using the calculus of variations. An integral equation is introduced to generalize the well-known Langevin equation to the case of the boundaries of a ferroelectric. An analysis of this equation leads to the existence of a transition layer at the interface between ferroelectrics or a ferroelectric and a dielectric. The permittivity of this layer is shown to depend on the electric field direction even if the ferroelectrics in contact are homogeneous. The results obtained in terms of the Weiss model are compared with the results of the models based on the correlation effect and the presence of a dielectric layer at the boundary of a ferroelectric and with experimental data.

  5. Theoretical model for thin ferroelectric films and the multilayer structures based on them

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Starkov, A. S., E-mail: starkov@iue.tuwien.ac.at; Pakhomov, O. V. [St. Petersburg National Research Univeristy ITMO, Institute of Refrigeration and Biotechnologies (Russian Federation); Starkov, I. A. [Vienna University of Technology, Institute for Microelectronics (Austria)

    2013-06-15

    A modified Weiss mean-field theory is used to study the dependence of the properties of a thin ferroelectric film on its thickness. The possibility of introducing gradient terms into the thermodynamic potential is analyzed using the calculus of variations. An integral equation is introduced to generalize the well-known Langevin equation to the case of the boundaries of a ferroelectric. An analysis of this equation leads to the existence of a transition layer at the interface between ferroelectrics or a ferroelectric and a dielectric. The permittivity of this layer is shown to depend on the electric field direction even if the ferroelectrics in contact are homogeneous. The results obtained in terms of the Weiss model are compared with the results of the models based on the correlation effect and the presence of a dielectric layer at the boundary of a ferroelectric and with experimental data.

  6. Multilayer limb quasi-static electromagnetic modeling with experiments for Galvanic coupling type IBC.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pun, S H; Gao, Y M; Mou, P A; Mak, P U; Vai, M I; Du, M

    2010-01-01

    Intra-body communication (IBC) is a new, emerging, short-range and human body based communication methodology. It is a technique to network various devices on human body, by utilizing the conducting properties of human tissues. For currently fast developed Body area network(BAN)/Body sensor network(BSN), IBC is believed to have advantages in power consumption, electromagnetic radiation, interference from external electromagnetic noise, security, and restriction in spectrum resource. In this article, the authors propose an improved mathematical model, which includes both electrical properties and proportion of human tissues, for IBC on a human limb. By solving the mathematical model analytically on four-layer system (skin, fat, muscle, and bone) and conducting in-vivo experiment, a comparison has been conducted.

  7. Analytic sensing for multi-layer spherical models with application to EEG source imaging

    OpenAIRE

    Kandaswamy, Djano; Blu, Thierry; Van De Ville, Dimitri

    2013-01-01

    Source imaging maps back boundary measurements to underlying generators within the domain; e. g., retrieving the parameters of the generating dipoles from electrical potential measurements on the scalp such as in electroencephalography (EEG). Fitting such a parametric source model is non-linear in the positions of the sources and renewed interest in mathematical imaging has led to several promising approaches. One important step in these methods is the application of a sensing principle that ...

  8. Modeling Phosphorus Transport and Cycling in the Greater Everglades Ecosystem

    Science.gov (United States)

    James, A. I.; Grace, K. A.; Jawitz, J. W.; Muller, S.; Munoz-Carpena, R.; Flaig, E. G.

    2005-12-01

    A solute transport model was used to predict phosphorus mobility in the northern Everglades. Over the past several decades, agricultural drainage waters discharged into the northern Everglades, have been enriched in phosphorus (P) relative to the historic rainfall-driven inputs. While methods of reducing total P concentrations in the discharge water have been actively pursued through implementation of agricultural Best Management Practices (BMPs), a major parallel effort has focused on the construction of a network of constructed wetlands for P removal before these waters enter the Everglades. This study describes the development of a water quality model for P transport and cycling and its application to a large constructed wetland: Stormwater Treatment Area 1 West (STA 1W), located southeast of Lake Okeechobee on the eastern perimeter of the Everglades Agricultural Area (EAA). In STA 1W agricultural nutrients such as phosphorus (P) are removed from EAA runoff before entering the adjacent Water Conservation Areas (WCAs) and the Everglades. STA 1W is divided by levees into 4 cells, which are flooded for most of the year; thus the dominant mechanism for flow and transport is overland flow. P is removed either through deposition into sediments or is taken up by plants; in either case the soils end up being significantly enriched in P. The model has been applied and calibrated to several years of water quality data from Cell 4 within STA 1W. Most existing P models have been applied to agricultural/upland systems, with only a few relevant to treatment wetlands such as STA 1W. To ensure sufficient flexibility in selecting appropriate system components and reactions, the model has been designed to incorporate a wide range of user-selectable mechanisms for P uptake and release parameters between soils and inflowing water. The model can track a large number of mobile and nonmobile components and utilizes a Godunov-style operator-splitting technique for the transported

  9. Analysis and classification of data sets for calibration and validation of agro-ecosystem models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kersebaum, K C; Boote, K J; Jorgenson, J S

    2015-01-01

    Experimental field data are used at different levels of complexity to calibrate, validate and improve agro-ecosystem models to enhance their reliability for regional impact assessment. A methodological framework and software are presented to evaluate and classify data sets into four classes regar...

  10. A biologically-based individual tree model for managing the longleaf pine ecosystem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rick Smith; Greg Somers

    1998-01-01

    Duration: 1995-present Objective: Develop a longleaf pine dynamics model and simulation system to define desirable ecosystem management practices in existing and future longleaf pine stands. Methods: Naturally-regenerated longleaf pine trees are being destructively sampled to measure their recent growth and dynamics. Soils and climate data will be combined with the...

  11. Learning and teaching ecosystem behaviour in secondary education : Systems thinking and modelling in authentic practices

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Westra, R.H.V.

    2008-01-01

    This thesis describes developmental research, aiming at a useful approach for modern secondary ecology education. The research question is: What are the characteristics of a valid, feasible and effective learning and teaching strategy about ecosystem behaviour using modelling and systems thinking in

  12. Analyzing the ecosystem carbon dynamics of four European coniferous forests using a biogeochemistry model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Churkina, G.; Tenhunen, J.; Thornton, P.; Falge, E.; Elbers, J.A.; Erhard, M.; Grünwald, T.; Kowalski, A.; Rannik, Ü.; Sprinz, D.

    2003-01-01

    This paper provides the first steps toward a regional-scale analysis of carbon (C) budgets. We explore the ability of the ecosystem model BIOME-BGC to estimate the daily and annual C dynamics of four European coniferous forests and shifts in these dynamics in response to changing environmental

  13. Modelling of spatially complex human-ecosystem, rural-urban and rich-poor interactions

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Naude, AH

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available The paper outlines the challenges of modelling and assessing spatially complex human-ecosystem interactions, and the need to simultaneously consider rural-urban and rich-poor interactions. The context for exploring these challenges is South Africa...

  14. Pervasive drought legacies in forest ecosystems and their implications for carbon cycle models

    Science.gov (United States)

    W. R. L. Anderegg; C. Schwalm; F. Biondi; J. J. Camarero; G. Koch; M. Litvak; K. Ogle; J. D. Shaw; E. Shevliakova; A. P. Williams; A. Wolf; E. Ziaco; S. Pacala

    2015-01-01

    The impacts of climate extremes on terrestrial ecosystems are poorly understood but important for predicting carbon cycle feedbacks to climate change. Coupled climate-carbon cycle models typically assume that vegetation recovery from extreme drought is immediate and complete, which conflicts with the understanding of basic plant physiology. We examined the recovery of...

  15. Sensitivity analysis of a simple linear model of a savanna ecosystem at Nyslvley

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Getz, WA

    1975-12-01

    Full Text Available parameters is analysed. The results obtained from this analysis are discussed and some general statements on important structures in the Nylsvley ecosystem that emerge from the analysis of the model are made. In particular certain conclusions are drawn...

  16. On a computational method for modelling complex ecosystems by superposition procedure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    He Shanyu.

    1986-12-01

    In this paper, the Superposition Procedure is concisely described, and a computational method for modelling a complex ecosystem is proposed. With this method, the information contained in acceptable submodels and observed data can be utilized to maximal degree. (author). 1 ref

  17. Modeling forest ecosystem changes resulting from surface coal mining in West Virginia

    Science.gov (United States)

    John Brown; Andrew J. Lister; Mary Ann Fajvan; Bonnie Ruefenacht; Christine Mazzarella

    2012-01-01

    The objective of this project is to assess the effects of surface coal mining on forest ecosystem disturbance and restoration in the Coal River Subbasin in southern West Virginia. Our approach is to develop disturbance impact models for this subbasin that will serve as a case study for testing the feasibility of integrating currently available GIS data layers, remote...

  18. Development of Laboratory Model Ecosystems as Early Warning Elements of Environmental Pollution

    Science.gov (United States)

    1974-12-01

    AD-AOll 851 DEVELOPMENT OF LABORATORY MODEL ECOSYSTEMS AS EARLY WARNING ELEMENTS OF ENVIRONMENTAL POLLUTION Robert L. Metcalf... ENVIRONMENTAL POLLUTION Robert L. Metcalf, Ph. D. University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, Illinois INTRODUCTION Problems of environmental pollution with...house dust is unsafe to breathe (Ewing and Pearson, 1974). Most of the source of our concern about environmental pollution by trace substances relates

  19. Optimising the management of complex dynamic ecosystems. An ecological-economic modelling approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hein, L.G.

    2005-01-01

    Keywords: ecological-economic modelling; ecosystem services; resource use; efficient; sustainability; wetlands, rangelands.

  20. Using ecosystem modelling techniques in exposure assessments of radionuclides - an overview

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kumblad, L.

    2005-01-01

    The risk to humans from potential releases from nuclear facilities is evaluated in safety assessments. Essential components of these assessments are exposure models, which estimate the transport of radionuclides in the environment, the uptake in biota, and transfer to humans. Recently, there has been a growing concern for radiological protection of the whole environment, not only humans, and a first attempt has been to employ model approaches based on stylized environments and transfer functions to biota based exclusively on bioconcentration factors (BCF). They are generally of a non-mechanistic nature and involve no knowledge of the actual processes involved, which is a severe limitation when assessing real ecosystems. in this paper, the possibility of using an ecological modelling approach as a complement or an alternative to the use of BCF-based models is discussed. The paper gives an overview of ecological and ecosystem modelling and examples of studies where ecosystem models have been used in association to ecological risk assessment studies for other pollutants than radionuclides. It also discusses the potential to use this technique in exposure assessments of radionuclides with a few examples from the safety assessment work performed by the Swedish nuclear fuel and waste management company (SKB). Finally there is a comparison of the characteristics of ecosystem models and traditionally exposure models for radionuclides used to estimate the radionuclide exposure of biota. The evaluation of ecosystem models already applied in safety assessments has shown that the ecosystem approach is possible to use to assess exposure to biota, and that it can handle many of the modelling problems identified related to BCF-models. The findings in this paper suggest that both national and international assessment frameworks for protection of the environment from ionising radiation would benefit from striving to adopt methodologies based on ecologically sound principles and

  1. Designing a Model of a Digital Ecosystem for Healthcare and Wellness Using the Business Model Canvas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    León, María Cosio; Nieto-Hipólito, Juan Ivan; Garibaldi-Beltrán, Julián; Amaya-Parra, Guillermo; Luque-Morales, Priscy; Magaña-Espinoza, Pedro; Aguilar-Velazco, José

    2016-06-01

    Wellness is a term often used to talk about optimal health as "dynamic balance of physical, emotional, social, spiritual, and intellectual health." While healthcare is a term about care offered to patients for improving their health. We use both terms, as well as the Business Model Canvas (BMC) methodology, to design a digital ecosystem model for healthcare and wellness called DE4HW; the model considers economic, technological, and legal asymmetries, which are present on e-services beyond geographical regions. BMC methodology was embedded into the global project strategy called: IBOT (Initiate, Build, Operate and Transfer); it is a methodology to establish a functional, integrated national telemedicine network and virtual education network; of which we took its phases rationale. The results in this work illustrate the design of DE4HW model, into the first phase of IBOT, enriched with the BMC, which enables us to define actors, their interactions, rules and protocols, in order to build DE4HW, while IBOT strategy manages the project goal, up to the transfer phase, where an integral service platform of healthcare and wellness is turned over to stakeholders.

  2. Application of the ultrasound hyperthermia model for a multi-layered tissue system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Loerincz, A

    2004-01-01

    This work models the thermal effect of several planar transducers targeting the tumour interactively in a ceramics-coupling-skin-muscle-tumour system. The most important inputs of the model include the following: emitted electric output, J/s; mechanical efficiency, %; number of transducers, pieces; surface area of the transducer, m 2 ; area, m 2 and temperature, K of the cooling surface, attenuation coefficients, Np/cm MHz; specific heats, J/gK; densities, g/cm 3 ; heat conductivities, J/msK; sound velocities m/s; flow rate of blood in the tissues, ml/gtissue/min; sound path in the tissues and in the blood flowing through the tissues, m. From the inputs, a number of intermediate data are determined, e.g. the geometry of the irradiated bodies that are in the path of ultrasound, acoustic hardness, Pas/m; sound reflection and sound transmission occurring at the interfaces, Np; heat exchanger wall thickness of the irradiated bodies, m; heat dissipation and heat exchanger surface areas, m 2 ; flow rate of blood in the tissues located in the path of ultrasound, ml/tissue mass in g/min; and the sound attenuation of the tissues, Np. The amount of generated heat, K/s decreased by the heat energy transported, J/s to the surrounding tissues by blood and heat conductivity, and the actual temperature, K of the irradiated tissue are the output parameters calculated by the model. The output results are available in the form of functions. The expected temperature of the target area, K can be set to either the denaturation temperature or to the respiratory decomposition temperature (43.5 deg. C) without damaging the surrounding tissues by setting in the following parameters properly: electric output power, W; the number and surface area, m 2 of the transducers; the area, m 2 and temperature, K of the cooling surfaces. After further development, the model will be suitable for handling more than three tissue layers, increased blood flow rates different angles of incidence, and

  3. AN ECOSYSTEM MODEL OF FISHERIES AND NUTRIENT ENRICHMENT

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nguyen, Thanh Viet; Vestergaard, Niels

    2009-01-01

      Economic models of fishery largely ignore the linkages to lower trophic levels. In particular, environmental data and other bottom-up information is widely disregarded. Nor are changes in physical environment (bottom-up) alongside both exogenous and endogenous environmental effects included in ...

  4. Modelling atmospheric OH-reactivity in a boreal forest ecosystem

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mogensen, D.; Smolander, S.; Sogachev, Andrey

    2011-01-01

    We have modelled the total atmospheric OH-reactivity in a boreal forest and investigated the individual contributions from gas phase inorganic species, isoprene, monoterpenes, and methane along with other important VOCs. Daily and seasonal variation in OH-reactivity for the year 2008 was examined...

  5. Ecosystem models are by definition simplifications of the real ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    spamer

    to calculate changes in total phytoplankton vegetative biomass with time ... into account when modelling phytoplankton population dynamics. ... Then, the means whereby the magnitude of ..... There was increased heat input and slight stratification from mid to ... conditions must be optimal and the water should be extremely ...

  6. Impact of multilayered compression bandages on sub-bandage interface pressure: a model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al Khaburi, J; Nelson, E A; Hutchinson, J; Dehghani-Sanij, A A

    2011-03-01

    Multi-component medical compression bandages are widely used to treat venous leg ulcers. The sub-bandage interface pressures induced by individual components of the multi-component compression bandage systems are not always simply additive. Current models to explain compression bandage performance do not take account of the increase in leg circumference when each bandage is applied, and this may account for the difference between predicted and actual pressures. To calculate the interface pressure when a multi-component compression bandage system is applied to a leg. Use thick wall cylinder theory to estimate the sub-bandage pressure over the leg when a multi-component compression bandage is applied to a leg. A mathematical model was developed based on thick cylinder theory to include bandage thickness in the calculation of the interface pressure in multi-component compression systems. In multi-component compression systems, the interface pressure corresponds to the sum of the pressures applied by individual bandage layers. However, the change in the limb diameter caused by additional bandage layers should be considered in the calculation. Adding the interface pressure produced by single components without considering the bandage thickness will result in an overestimate of the overall interface pressure produced by the multi-component compression systems. At the ankle (circumference 25 cm) this error can be 19.2% or even more in the case of four components bandaging systems. Bandage thickness should be considered when calculating the pressure applied using multi-component compression systems.

  7. Enhanced science-stakeholder communication to improve ecosystem model performances for climate change impact assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jönsson, Anna Maria; Anderbrant, Olle; Holmér, Jennie; Johansson, Jacob; Schurgers, Guy; Svensson, Glenn P; Smith, Henrik G

    2015-04-01

    In recent years, climate impact assessments of relevance to the agricultural and forestry sectors have received considerable attention. Current ecosystem models commonly capture the effect of a warmer climate on biomass production, but they rarely sufficiently capture potential losses caused by pests, pathogens and extreme weather events. In addition, alternative management regimes may not be integrated in the models. A way to improve the quality of climate impact assessments is to increase the science-stakeholder collaboration, and in a two-way dialog link empirical experience and impact modelling with policy and strategies for sustainable management. In this paper we give a brief overview of different ecosystem modelling methods, discuss how to include ecological and management aspects, and highlight the importance of science-stakeholder communication. By this, we hope to stimulate a discussion among the science-stakeholder communities on how to quantify the potential for climate change adaptation by improving the realism in the models.

  8. Climate, ecosystems, and planetary futures: The challenge to predict life in Earth system models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonan, Gordon B; Doney, Scott C

    2018-02-02

    Many global change stresses on terrestrial and marine ecosystems affect not only ecosystem services that are essential to humankind, but also the trajectory of future climate by altering energy and mass exchanges with the atmosphere. Earth system models, which simulate terrestrial and marine ecosystems and biogeochemical cycles, offer a common framework for ecological research related to climate processes; analyses of vulnerability, impacts, and adaptation; and climate change mitigation. They provide an opportunity to move beyond physical descriptors of atmospheric and oceanic states to societally relevant quantities such as wildfire risk, habitat loss, water availability, and crop, fishery, and timber yields. To achieve this, the science of climate prediction must be extended to a more multifaceted Earth system prediction that includes the biosphere and its resources. Copyright © 2018, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  9. Modeling the response of plants and ecosystems to elevated CO sub 2 and climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Reynolds, J.F.; Hilbert, D.W.; Chen, Jia-lin; Harley, P.C.; Kemp, P.R.; Leadley, P.W.

    1992-03-01

    While the exact effects of elevated CO{sub 2} on global climate are unknown, there is a growing consensus among climate modelers that global temperature and precipitation will increase, but that these changes will be non-uniform over the Earth's surface. In addition to these potential climatic changes, CO{sub 2} also directly affects plants via photosynthesis, respiration, and stomatal closure. Global climate change, in concert with these direct effects of CO{sub 2} on plants, could have a significant impact on both natural and agricultural ecosystems. Society's ability to prepare for, and respond to, such changes depends largely on the ability of climate and ecosystem researchers to provide predictions of regional level ecosystem responses with sufficient confidence and adequate lead time.

  10. Modeling the response of plants and ecosystems to elevated CO{sub 2} and climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Reynolds, J.F.; Hilbert, D.W.; Chen, Jia-lin; Harley, P.C.; Kemp, P.R.; Leadley, P.W.

    1992-03-01

    While the exact effects of elevated CO{sub 2} on global climate are unknown, there is a growing consensus among climate modelers that global temperature and precipitation will increase, but that these changes will be non-uniform over the Earth`s surface. In addition to these potential climatic changes, CO{sub 2} also directly affects plants via photosynthesis, respiration, and stomatal closure. Global climate change, in concert with these direct effects of CO{sub 2} on plants, could have a significant impact on both natural and agricultural ecosystems. Society`s ability to prepare for, and respond to, such changes depends largely on the ability of climate and ecosystem researchers to provide predictions of regional level ecosystem responses with sufficient confidence and adequate lead time.

  11. The behaviour of radiocaesium in woodland ecosystems. Measurement and modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Toal, M.

    1999-02-01

    In order to better quantify risk to non-human biota from environmental radioactivity, our understanding of the behaviour of radionuclides in the biosphere needs to be increased. Hence the aims of the present study were threefold: 1) Review Ecological Risk Assessment (ERA) methodologies, 2) Quantify radiocaesium distribution in woodland biota in the vicinity of BNFL Sellafield, 3) Use this information to develop radiocaesium food-chain and dosimetry models for terrestrial invertebrates and small-mammals. A review of ERA literature concluded that of the two main methodologies available (individual receptor and holistic ERA), individual receptor based analysis is the most credible method given in today's level of scientific understanding. lt was also concluded that the use of modelling techniques in ERA will increase in future years. Two study sites were sampled, a Picea sitchensis monoculture (Lady Wood) and a mixed deciduous site (Longrigg Wood). Mean levels of Cs-137 (all activities quoted in Bq/kg dry weight) in soils:leaf litter were 473:408 (Lady Wood) and 142:32 (Longrigg Wood). The activity of understorey vegetation varied with ranges of 17-508 and 4-48 Bq/kg in Lady Wood and Longrigg, respectively. No vegetation species had concentration ratios (CRs) > 1. The greatest range in Cs-137 activity (2-5242 Bq/kg DW, Lady Wood) was found in fungi, with Mycena galariculata and Hypholoma fasciculare attaining the highest biomagnifications (CRs = 2.6, 2.0 respectively). Due to radioanalytical constraints, only 'mixed invertebrate' samples were measured for Longrigg Wood (yearly average = 8.5 Bq/kg). No significant invertebrate body-burden differences were found between taxa or between seasons for each invertebrate group in Lady Wood. Mean yearly Cs-137 body-burdens (Bq/kg DW) were 94 (Diplopoda), 104 (Isopoda), 54 (Chilopoda), 120 (Araneae), 91 (Opilionidae) and 41 (Carabidae). No invertebrates had CRs > 1. Seasonal Cs-137 body-burdens were also measured for the

  12. Modeling and Predicting Carbon and Water Fluxes Using Data-Driven Techniques in a Forest Ecosystem

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xianming Dou

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Accurate estimation of carbon and water fluxes of forest ecosystems is of particular importance for addressing the problems originating from global environmental change, and providing helpful information about carbon and water content for analyzing and diagnosing past and future climate change. The main focus of the current work was to investigate the feasibility of four comparatively new methods, including generalized regression neural network, group method of data handling (GMDH, extreme learning machine and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS, for elucidating the carbon and water fluxes in a forest ecosystem. A comparison was made between these models and two widely used data-driven models, artificial neural network (ANN and support vector machine (SVM. All the models were evaluated based on the following statistical indices: coefficient of determination, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency, root mean square error and mean absolute error. Results indicated that the data-driven models are capable of accounting for most variance in each flux with the limited meteorological variables. The ANN model provided the best estimates for gross primary productivity (GPP and net ecosystem exchange (NEE, while the ANFIS model achieved the best for ecosystem respiration (R, indicating that no single model was consistently superior to others for the carbon flux prediction. In addition, the GMDH model consistently produced somewhat worse results for all the carbon flux and evapotranspiration (ET estimations. On the whole, among the carbon and water fluxes, all the models produced similar highly satisfactory accuracy for GPP, R and ET fluxes, and did a reasonable job of reproducing the eddy covariance NEE. Based on these findings, it was concluded that these advanced models are promising alternatives to ANN and SVM for estimating the terrestrial carbon and water fluxes.

  13. From Genes to Ecosystems in Microbiology: Modeling Approaches and the Importance of Individuality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jan-Ulrich Kreft

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Models are important tools in microbial ecology. They can be used to advance understanding by helping to interpret observations and test hypotheses, and to predict the effects of ecosystem management actions or a different climate. Over the past decades, biological knowledge and ecosystem observations have advanced to the molecular and in particular gene level. However, microbial ecology models have changed less and a current challenge is to make them utilize the knowledge and observations at the genetic level. We review published models that explicitly consider genes and make predictions at the population or ecosystem level. The models can be grouped into three general approaches, i.e., metabolic flux, gene-centric and agent-based. We describe and contrast these approaches by applying them to a hypothetical ecosystem and discuss their strengths and weaknesses. An important distinguishing feature is how variation between individual cells (individuality is handled. In microbial ecosystems, individual heterogeneity is generated by a number of mechanisms including stochastic interactions of molecules (e.g., gene expression, stochastic and deterministic cell division asymmetry, small-scale environmental heterogeneity, and differential transport in a heterogeneous environment. This heterogeneity can then be amplified and transferred to other cell properties by several mechanisms, including nutrient uptake, metabolism and growth, cell cycle asynchronicity and the effects of age and damage. For example, stochastic gene expression may lead to heterogeneity in nutrient uptake enzyme levels, which in turn results in heterogeneity in intracellular nutrient levels. Individuality can have important ecological consequences, including division of labor, bet hedging, aging and sub-optimality. Understanding the importance of individuality and the mechanism(s underlying it for the specific microbial system and question investigated is essential for selecting the

  14. Modelling impacts of second generation bioenergy production on Ecosystem Services in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henner, D. N.; Smith, P.; Davies, C.; McNamara, N. P.

    2016-12-01

    Bioenergy crops are an important source of renewable energy and likely to play a major role in transitioning to a lower CO2 energy system. There is, however, uncertainty about the impacts of the growth of bioenergy crops on broader sustainability encompassed by ecosystem services, further enhanced by ongoing climate change. The goal of this project is to develop a comprehensive model that covers ecosystem services at a continental scale including biodiversity and pollination, water and air security, erosion control and soil security, GHG emissions, soil C and cultural services like tourism value. The technical distribution potential and likely yield of second generation energy crops, such as Miscanthus, Short Rotation Coppice (SRC; willow and poplar) was modelled using ECOSSE, DayCent, SalixFor and MiscanFor models. In addition, methods like water footprint tools, tourism value maps and ecosystem valuation tools and models are utilised. We will present results for synergies and trade-offs between land use change and ecosystem services, impact on food security and land management. Further, we will show modelled yield maps for different cultivars of Miscanthus, willow and poplar in Europe and constraint/opportunity maps based on projected yield and other factors e.g. total economic value, technical potential, current land use, climate change and trade-offs and synergies. It will be essential to include multiple ecosystem services when assessing the potential for bioenergy production/expansion that does not impact other land uses or provisioning services. Considering that the soil GHG balance is dominated by change in soil organic carbon (SOC) and the difference among Miscanthus and SRC is largely determined by yield, an important target for management of perennial energy crops is to achieve the best possible yield using the most appropriate energy crop and cultivar for the local situation. This research could inform future policy decisions on bioenergy crops in

  15. Linking biophysical models and public preferences for ecosystem service assessments: a case study for the Southern Rocky Mountains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bagstad, Kenneth J.; Reed, James; Semmens, Darius J.; Sherrouse, Ben C.; Troy, Austin

    2016-01-01

    Through extensive research, ecosystem services have been mapped using both survey-based and biophysical approaches, but comparative mapping of public values and those quantified using models has been lacking. In this paper, we mapped hot and cold spots for perceived and modeled ecosystem services by synthesizing results from a social-values mapping study of residents living near the Pike–San Isabel National Forest (PSI), located in the Southern Rocky Mountains, with corresponding biophysically modeled ecosystem services. Social-value maps for the PSI were developed using the Social Values for Ecosystem Services tool, providing statistically modeled continuous value surfaces for 12 value types, including aesthetic, biodiversity, and life-sustaining values. Biophysically modeled maps of carbon sequestration and storage, scenic viewsheds, sediment regulation, and water yield were generated using the Artificial Intelligence for Ecosystem Services tool. Hotspots for both perceived and modeled services were disproportionately located within the PSI’s wilderness areas. Additionally, we used regression analysis to evaluate spatial relationships between perceived biodiversity and cultural ecosystem services and corresponding biophysical model outputs. Our goal was to determine whether publicly valued locations for aesthetic, biodiversity, and life-sustaining values relate meaningfully to results from corresponding biophysical ecosystem service models. We found weak relationships between perceived and biophysically modeled services, indicating that public perception of ecosystem service provisioning regions is limited. We believe that biophysical and social approaches to ecosystem service mapping can serve as methodological complements that can advance ecosystem services-based resource management, benefitting resource managers by showing potential locations of synergy or conflict between areas supplying ecosystem services and those valued by the public.

  16. Lamellar multilayer hexadecylaniline-modified gold nanoparticle ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    standard Wilhelmy plate was used for surface pressure sensing. Multilayer ... carried out on a JEOL model 1200EX instrument operated at an accelerating voltage of ... the gold nanoparticles within domains (and reorganization of the domains ...

  17. Models for transport and fate of carbon, nutrients and radionuclides in the aquatic ecosystem at Oeregrundsgrepen

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Erichsen, Anders Christian; Moehlenberg, Flemming; Closter, Rikke Margrethe; Sandberg, Johannes (DHI, Hoersholm (Denmark))

    2010-06-15

    The aim of the work was to provide supplementary input to the risk assessment of a planned final nuclear waste repository at Forsmark. The main deliverable was a computed water exchange between basins in the Forsmark marine area for the period 6500 BC to 9000 AD - based on the hydrodynamic modelling - to be used as input to the landscape dose model. In addition and what is described in this report, a second deliverable was development and application of high-resolution models for the marine ecosystem and radionuclide processes. The purpose of this deliverable was to illustrate the spatial and temporal variation in important processes and parameters, while constituting a complement to previous modelling approaches and providing supporting information to discussions of the marine ecosystem, parameters and variation (see Chapter 4 and 6).To this end, a hydrodynamic model of high temporal and spatial resolution was constructed and calibrated for the Forsmark area. An ecosystem model was then developed and coupled to the hydrodynamic model. In turn, a detailed radionuclide model was coupled to the ecosystem model to provide detailed predictions of radionuclide transport and accumulation in the coastal ecosystem. The ecosystem and radionuclide models were developed in the equation solver MIKE ECOLab that links seamless to the MIKE3 FM hydrodynamic model. The 'standard' ECOLab ecosystem model was extended with six biological state variables, perennial macroalgae, benthic herbivors, detritus feeders, planktivorus fish and, benthic predators representing the relict isopod Saduria and cod. In contrast to the ecosystem model, the radionuclide model was developed from scratch but building on the structure of the ecosystem model and using the output (process rates linking state variables) from the ecosystem model as input to the radionuclide model. Both the ecosystem model and the radionuclide model were run for several years (5-8 years) to bring state variables into

  18. Conducting model ecosystem studies in tropical climate zones: Lessons learned from Thailand and way forward

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Daam, Michiel A., E-mail: mdaam@isa.utl.pt [Instituto Superior de Agronomia, Technical University of Lisbon, Tapada da Ajuda, 1349-017 Lisbon (Portugal); Van den Brink, Paul J., E-mail: Paul.vandenbrink@wur.nl [Alterra, Wageningen University and Research centre, P.O. Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen (Netherlands); Wageningen University, Department of Aquatic Ecology and Water Quality Management, Wageningen University and Research centre, P.O. Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen (Netherlands)

    2011-04-15

    Little research has been done so far into the environmental fate and side effects of pesticides in the tropics. In addition, those studies conducted in tropical regions have focused almost exclusively on single species laboratory tests. Hence, fate and effects of pesticides on higher-tier levels have barely been studied under tropical conditions. To address this lack of knowledge, four outdoor aquatic model ecosystem experiments using two different test systems were conducted in Thailand evaluating the insecticide chlorpyrifos, the herbicide linuron and the fungicide carbendazim. Results of these experiments and comparisons of recorded fate and effects with temperate studies have been published previously. The present paper discusses the pros and cons of the methodologies applied and provides indications for i) possible improvements; ii) important aspects that should be considered when performing model ecosystem experiments in the tropics; iii) future research. - Research highlights: > Methodologies used overall seemed adequate to evaluate pesticide stress. > Identification and sampling of tropical macroinvertebrates should be improved. > Additional studies needed for different compounds and greater geographical scale. > Different exposure regimes and ecosystem types should be simulated. > Trophic interrelationship and recovery potential need to be evaluated. - Methodologies for conducting model ecosystem studies in the tropics.

  19. Associative account of self-cognition: extended forward model and multi-layer structure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Motoaki eSugiura

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available The neural correlates of self identified by neuroimaging studies differ depending on which aspects of self are addressed. Here, three categories of self are proposed based on neuroimaging findings and an evaluation of the likely underlying cognitive processes. The physical self, representing self-agency of action, body ownership, and bodily self-recognition, is supported by the sensory and motor association cortices located primarily in the right hemisphere. The interpersonal self, representing the attention or intentions of others directed at the self, is supported by several amodal association cortices in the dorsomedial frontal and lateral posterior cortices. The social self, representing the self as a collection of context-dependent social values, is supported by the ventral aspect of the medial prefrontal cortex and the posterior cingulate cortex. Despite differences in the underlying cognitive processes and neural substrates, all three categories of self are likely to share the computational characteristics of the forward model, which is underpinned by internal schema or learned associations between one’s behavioral output and the consequential input. Additionally, these three categories exist within a hierarchical layer structure based on developmental processes that updates the schema through the attribution of prediction error. In this account, most of the association cortices critically contribute to some aspect of the self through associative learning while the primary regions involved shift from the lateral to the medial cortices in a sequence from the physical to the interpersonal to the social self.

  20. Development of an integrated generic model for multi-scale assessment of the impacts of agro-ecosystems on major ecosystem services in West Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belem, Mahamadou; Saqalli, Mehdi

    2017-11-01

    This paper presents an integrated model assessing the impacts of climate change, agro-ecosystem and demographic transition patterns on major ecosystem services in West-Africa along a partial overview of economic aspects (poverty reduction, food self-sufficiency and income generation). The model is based on an agent-based model associated with a soil model and multi-scale spatial model. The resulting Model for West-Africa Agro-Ecosystem Integrated Assessment (MOWASIA) is ecologically generic, meaning it is designed for all sudano-sahelian environments but may then be used as an experimentation facility for testing different scenarios combining ecological and socioeconomic dimensions. A case study in Burkina Faso is examined to assess the environmental and economic performances of semi-continuous and continuous farming systems. Results show that the semi-continuous system using organic fertilizer and fallowing practices contribute better to environment preservation and food security than the more economically performant continuous system. In addition, this study showed that farmers heterogeneity could play an important role in agricultural policies planning and assessment. In addition, the results showed that MOWASIA is an effective tool for designing, analysing the impacts of agro-ecosystems. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  1. A methodology for evaluation of parent-mutant competition using a generalized non-linear ecosystem model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raymond L. Czaplewski

    1973-01-01

    A generalized, non-linear population dynamics model of an ecosystem is used to investigate the direction of selective pressures upon a mutant by studying the competition between parent and mutant populations. The model has the advantages of considering selection as operating on the phenotype, of retaining the interaction of the mutant population with the ecosystem as a...

  2. Analysis of trait-based models in marine ecosystems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heilmann, Irene Louise Torpe

    -temporal pattern formation in a predator–prey system where animals move towards higher fitness. Reaction-diffusion systems have been used extensively to describe spatio-temporal patterns in a variety of systems. However, animals rarely move completely at random, as expressed by diffusion. This has lead to models...... with taxis terms, describing individuals moving in the direction of an attractant. An example is chemotaxis models, where bacteria are attracted to a chemical substance. From an evolutionary perspective, it is expected that animals act as to optimize their fitness. Based on this principle, a predator......–prey system with fitness taxis and diffusion is proposed. Here, fitness taxis refer to animals moving towards higher values of fitness, and the specific growth rates of the populations are used as a measure of the fitness values. To determine the conditions for pattern formation, a linear stability analysis...

  3. Climate change impacts utilizing regional models for agriculture, hydrology and natural ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kafatos, M.; Asrar, G. R.; El-Askary, H. M.; Hatzopoulos, N.; Kim, J.; Kim, S.; Medvigy, D.; Prasad, A. K.; Smith, E.; Stack, D. H.; Tremback, C.; Walko, R. L.

    2012-12-01

    Climate change impacts the entire Earth but with crucial and often catastrophic impacts at local and regional levels. Extreme phenomena such as fires, dust storms, droughts and other natural hazards present immediate risks and challenges. Such phenomena will become more extreme as climate change and anthropogenic activities accelerate in the future. We describe a major project funded by NIFA (Grant # 2011-67004-30224), under the joint NSF-DOE-USDA Earth System Models (EaSM) program, to investigate the impacts of climate variability and change on the agricultural and natural (i.e. rangeland) ecosystems in the Southwest USA using a combination of historical and present observations together with climate, and ecosystem models, both in hind-cast and forecast modes. The applicability of the methodology to other regions is relevant (for similar geographic regions as well as other parts of the world with different agriculture and ecosystems) and should advance the state of knowledge for regional impacts of climate change. A combination of multi-model global climate projections from the decadal predictability simulations, to downscale dynamically these projections using three regional climate models, combined with remote sensing MODIS and other data, in order to obtain high-resolution climate data that can be used with hydrological and ecosystem models for impacts analysis, is described in this presentation. Such analysis is needed to assess the future risks and potential impacts of projected changes on these natural and managed ecosystems. The results from our analysis can be used by scientists to assist extended communities to determine agricultural coping strategies, and is, therefore, of interest to wide communities of stakeholders. In future work we will be including surface hydrologic modeling and water resources, extend modeling to higher resolutions and include significantly more crops and geographical regions with different weather and climate conditions

  4. Diagnosis and Quantification of Climatic Sensitivity of Carbon Fluxes in Ensemble Global Ecosystem Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, W.; Hashimoto, H.; Milesi, C.; Nemani, R. R.; Myneni, R.

    2011-12-01

    Terrestrial ecosystem models are primary scientific tools to extrapolate our understanding of ecosystem functioning from point observations to global scales as well as from the past climatic conditions into the future. However, no model is nearly perfect and there are often considerable structural uncertainties existing between different models. Ensemble model experiments thus become a mainstream approach in evaluating the current status of global carbon cycle and predicting its future changes. A key task in such applications is to quantify the sensitivity of the simulated carbon fluxes to climate variations and changes. Here we develop a systematic framework to address this question solely by analyzing the inputs and the outputs from the models. The principle of our approach is to assume the long-term (~30 years) average of the inputs/outputs as a quasi-equlibrium of the climate-vegetation system while treat the anomalies of carbon fluxes as responses to climatic disturbances. In this way, the corresponding relationships can be largely linearized and analyzed using conventional time-series techniques. This method is used to characterize three major aspects of the vegetation models that are mostly important to global carbon cycle, namely the primary production, the biomass dynamics, and the ecosystem respiration. We apply this analytical framework to quantify the climatic sensitivity of an ensemble of models including CASA, Biome-BGC, LPJ as well as several other DGVMs from previous studies, all driven by the CRU-NCEP climate dataset. The detailed analysis results are reported in this study.

  5. Modelling of 137Cs behaviour in forest ecosystems and prediction of its accumulation in forest products

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Spiridonov, S.I.; Fesenko, S.V.; Gontarenko, I.A.; Avila, R.

    2001-01-01

    A mathematical model of 137 Cs migration in forest ecosystem contaminated due to the Chernobyl accident presented, which describes the behaviour of this radionuclide in the forest litter-soil system, tress, and forest animals. The model's parameters for different types of forest ecosystems are estimated and model's adequacy is tested through the use of independent experimental data. The sensitivity of the model's output variables is analyzed to variations in the most significant parameters. The differences in the seasonal and mean annual dynamics of 137 Cs concentration in muscles of roe deers and mooses are shown to be defined by specific features of the diets of these animals and variations in 137 Cs content in the main diet components [ru

  6. Integrated modelling for assessing the risk of groundwater contaminants to human health and surface water ecosystems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    McKnight, Ursula S.; Rasmussen, Jes; Funder, Simon G.

    2010-01-01

    for evaluating the impact of a TCE groundwater plume, located in an area with protected drinking water interests, to human health and surface water ecosystems. This is accomplished by coupling the system dynamicsbased decision support system CARO-Plus to the aquatic ecosystem model AQUATOX via an analytical......The practical implementation of the European Water Framework Directive has resulted in an increased focus on the groundwater-surface water interaction zone. A gap exists with respect to preliminary assessment methodologies that are capable of evaluating and prioritising point sources...... volatilisation model for the stream. The model is tested on a Danish case study involving a 750 m long TCE groundwater plume discharging into a stream. The initial modelling results indicate that TCE contaminant plumes with μgL-1 concentrations entering surface water systems do not pose a significant risk...

  7. Challenges and opportunities in land surface modelling of savanna ecosystems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Whitley

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available The savanna complex is a highly diverse global biome that occurs within the seasonally dry tropical to sub-tropical equatorial latitudes and are structurally and functionally distinct from grasslands and forests. Savannas are open-canopy environments that encompass a broad demographic continuum, often characterised by a changing dominance between C3-tree and C4-grass vegetation, where frequent environmental disturbances such as fire modulates the balance between ephemeral and perennial life forms. Climate change is projected to result in significant changes to the savanna floristic structure, with increases to woody biomass expected through CO2 fertilisation in mesic savannas and increased tree mortality expected through increased rainfall interannual variability in xeric savannas. The complex interaction between vegetation and climate that occurs in savannas has traditionally challenged terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs, which aim to simulate the interaction between the atmosphere and the land surface to predict responses of vegetation to changing in environmental forcing. In this review, we examine whether TBMs are able to adequately represent savanna fluxes and what implications potential deficiencies may have for climate change projection scenarios that rely on these models. We start by highlighting the defining characteristic traits and behaviours of savannas, how these differ across continents and how this information is (or is not represented in the structural framework of many TBMs. We highlight three dynamic processes that we believe directly affect the water use and productivity of the savanna system: phenology, root-water access and fire dynamics. Following this, we discuss how these processes are represented in many current-generation TBMs and whether they are suitable for simulating savanna fluxes.Finally, we give an overview of how eddy-covariance observations in combination with other data sources can be used in model

  8. Modeling the Observed Microwave Emission from Shallow Multi-Layer Tundra Snow Using DMRT-ML

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nastaran Saberi

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The observed brightness temperatures (Tb at 37 GHz from typical moderate density dry snow in mid-latitudes decreases with increasing snow water equivalent (SWE due to volume scattering of the ground emissions by the overlying snow. At a certain point, however, as SWE increases, the emission from the snowpack offsets the scattering of the sub-nivean emission. In tundra snow, the Tb slope reversal occurs at shallower snow thicknesses. While it has been postulated that the inflection point in the seasonal time series of observed Tb V 37 GHz of tundra snow is controlled by the formation of a thick wind slab layer, the simulation of this effect has yet to be confirmed. Therefore, the Dense Media Radiative Transfer Theory for Multi Layered (DMRT-ML snowpack is used to predict the passive microwave response from airborne observations over shallow, dense, slab-layered tundra snow. Airborne radiometer observations coordinated with ground-based in situ snow measurements were acquired in the Canadian high Arctic near Eureka, NT, in April 2011. The DMRT-ML was parameterized with the in situ snow measurements using a two-layer snowpack and run in two configurations: a depth hoar and a wind slab dominated pack. With these two configurations, the calibrated DMRT-ML successfully predicted the Tb V 37 GHz response (R correlation of 0.83 when compared with the observed airborne Tb footprints containing snow pits measurements. Using this calibrated model, the DMRT-ML was applied to the whole study region. At the satellite observation scale, observations from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer-Earth Observing System (AMSR-E over the study area reflected seasonal differences between Tb V 37 GHz and Tb V 19 GHz that supports the hypothesis of the development of an early season volume scattering depth hoar layer, followed by the growth of the late season emission-dominated wind slab layer. This research highlights the necessity to consider the two

  9. Models for transport and fate of carbon, nutrients and point source released radionuclides to an aquatic ecosystem

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kumblad, Linda [Stockholm Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of Systems Ecology; Kautsky, Ulrik [Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co., Stockholm (Sweden)

    2004-09-01

    In this report three ecosystem models are described in terms of structure, initial data, and results. All models are dynamic, mass-balanced and describe the transport and fate of elements in an open aquatic ecosystem. The models are based on ecologically sound principles, provide model results with high resolution and transparency, and are constrained by the nutrient dynamics of the ecosystem itself. The processes driving the transport in all the models are both the biological processes such as primary production, consumption, respiration and excretion, and abiotic e.g. water exchange and air-sea exchange. The first model, the CNP-model, describes the distribution and fluxes of carbon and nutrients for the coastal ecosystem off Forsmark. The second model, the C-14 model, is an extension of the CNP-model and describes the transport and distribution of hypothetically released C-14 from the underground repository SFR-1 to the ecosystem above. The third model, the RN-model, is a generic radionuclide flow model that models the transport and distribution of radionuclides other than C-14 hypothetically discharged to the ecosystem. The model also analyses the importance of some radionuclide specific mechanisms for the radionuclide flow. The generic radionuclide model is also based on the CNP-model, but has radionuclide specific mechanisms connected to each compartment.

  10. Models for transport and fate of carbon, nutrients and point source released radionuclides to an aquatic ecosystem

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kumblad, Linda

    2004-09-01

    In this report three ecosystem models are described in terms of structure, initial data, and results. All models are dynamic, mass-balanced and describe the transport and fate of elements in an open aquatic ecosystem. The models are based on ecologically sound principles, provide model results with high resolution and transparency, and are constrained by the nutrient dynamics of the ecosystem itself. The processes driving the transport in all the models are both the biological processes such as primary production, consumption, respiration and excretion, and abiotic e.g. water exchange and air-sea exchange. The first model, the CNP-model, describes the distribution and fluxes of carbon and nutrients for the coastal ecosystem off Forsmark. The second model, the C-14 model, is an extension of the CNP-model and describes the transport and distribution of hypothetically released C-14 from the underground repository SFR-1 to the ecosystem above. The third model, the RN-model, is a generic radionuclide flow model that models the transport and distribution of radionuclides other than C-14 hypothetically discharged to the ecosystem. The model also analyses the importance of some radionuclide specific mechanisms for the radionuclide flow. The generic radionuclide model is also based on the CNP-model, but has radionuclide specific mechanisms connected to each compartment

  11. On the use of tower-flux measurements to assess the performance of global ecosystem models

    Science.gov (United States)

    El Maayar, M.; Kucharik, C.

    2003-04-01

    Global ecosystem models are important tools for the study of biospheric processes and their responses to environmental changes. Such models typically translate knowledge, gained from local observations, into estimates of regional or even global outcomes of ecosystem processes. A typical test of ecosystem models consists of comparing their output against tower-flux measurements of land surface-atmosphere exchange of heat and mass. To perform such tests, models are typically run using detailed information on soil properties (texture, carbon content,...) and vegetation structure observed at the experimental site (e.g., vegetation height, vegetation phenology, leaf photosynthetic characteristics,...). In global simulations, however, earth's vegetation is typically represented by a limited number of plant functional types (PFT; group of plant species that have similar physiological and ecological characteristics). For each PFT (e.g., temperate broadleaf trees, boreal conifer evergreen trees,...), which can cover a very large area, a set of typical physiological and physical parameters are assigned. Thus, a legitimate question arises: How does the performance of a global ecosystem model run using detailed site-specific parameters compare with the performance of a less detailed global version where generic parameters are attributed to a group of vegetation species forming a PFT? To answer this question, we used a multiyear dataset, measured at two forest sites with contrasting environments, to compare seasonal and interannual variability of surface-atmosphere exchange of water and carbon predicted by the Integrated BIosphere Simulator-Dynamic Global Vegetation Model. Two types of simulations were, thus, performed: a) Detailed runs: observed vegetation characteristics (leaf area index, vegetation height,...) and soil carbon content, in addition to climate and soil type, are specified for model run; and b) Generic runs: when only observed climates and soil types at the

  12. Implications of Uncertainty in Fossil Fuel Emissions for Terrestrial Ecosystem Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, A. W.; Ricciuto, D. M.; Mao, J.; Andres, R. J.

    2017-12-01

    Given observations of the increase in atmospheric CO2, estimates of anthropogenic emissions and models of oceanic CO2 uptake, one can estimate net global CO2 exchange between the atmosphere and terrestrial ecosystems as the residual of the balanced global carbon budget. Estimates from the Global Carbon Project 2016 show that terrestrial ecosystems are a growing sink for atmospheric CO2 (averaging 2.12 Gt C y-1 for the period 1959-2015 with a growth rate of 0.03 Gt C y-1 per year) but with considerable year-to-year variability (standard deviation of 1.07 Gt C y-1). Within the uncertainty of the observations, emissions estimates and ocean modeling, this residual calculation is a robust estimate of a global terrestrial sink for CO2. A task of terrestrial ecosystem science is to explain the trend and variability in this estimate. However, "within the uncertainty" is an important caveat. The uncertainty (2σ; 95% confidence interval) in fossil fuel emissions is 8.4% (±0.8 Gt C in 2015). Combined with uncertainty in other carbon budget components, the 2σ uncertainty surrounding the global net terrestrial ecosystem CO2 exchange is ±1.6 Gt C y-1. Ignoring the uncertainty, the estimate of a general terrestrial sink includes 2 years (1987 and 1998) in which terrestrial ecosystems are a small source of CO2 to the atmosphere. However, with 2σ uncertainty, terrestrial ecosystems may have been a source in as many as 18 years. We examine how well global terrestrial biosphere models simulate the trend and interannual variability of the global-budget estimate of the terrestrial sink within the context of this uncertainty (e.g., which models fall outside the 2σ uncertainty and in what years). Models are generally capable of reproducing the trend in net terrestrial exchange, but are less able to capture interannual variability and often fall outside the 2σ uncertainty. The trend in the residual carbon budget estimate is primarily associated with the increase in atmospheric CO2

  13. Fabrication of multilayer nanowires

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kaur, Jasveer, E-mail: kaurjasveer89@gmail.com; Singh, Avtar; Kumar, Davinder [Department of Physics, Punjabi University Patiala, 147002, Punjab (India); Thakur, Anup; Kaur, Raminder, E-mail: raminder-k-saini@yahoo.com [Department of Basic and Applied Sciences, Punjabi University Patiala, 147002, Punjab (India)

    2016-05-06

    Multilayer nanowires were fabricated by potentiostate ectrodeposition template synthesis method into the pores of polycarbonate membrane. In present work layer by layer deposition of two different metals Ni and Cu in polycarbonate membrane having pore size of 600 nm were carried out. It is found that the growth of nanowires is not constant, it varies with deposition time. Scanning electron microscopy (SEM) is used to study the morphology of fabricated multilayer nanowires. An energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (EDS) results confirm the composition of multilayer nanowires. The result shows that multilayer nanowires formed is dense.

  14. Fabrication of multilayer nanowires

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaur, Jasveer; Singh, Avtar; Kumar, Davinder; Thakur, Anup; Kaur, Raminder

    2016-01-01

    Multilayer nanowires were fabricated by potentiostate ectrodeposition template synthesis method into the pores of polycarbonate membrane. In present work layer by layer deposition of two different metals Ni and Cu in polycarbonate membrane having pore size of 600 nm were carried out. It is found that the growth of nanowires is not constant, it varies with deposition time. Scanning electron microscopy (SEM) is used to study the morphology of fabricated multilayer nanowires. An energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (EDS) results confirm the composition of multilayer nanowires. The result shows that multilayer nanowires formed is dense.

  15. The role of stoichiometric flexibility in modelling forest ecosystem responses to nitrogen fertilization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyerholt, Johannes; Zaehle, Sönke

    2015-12-01

    The response of the forest carbon (C) balance to changes in nitrogen (N) deposition is uncertain, partly owing to diverging representations of N cycle processes in dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs). Here, we examined how different assumptions about the degree of flexibility of the ecosystem's C : N ratios contribute to this uncertainty, and which of these assumptions best correspond to the available data. We applied these assumptions within the framework of a DGVM and compared the results to responses in net primary productivity (NPP), leaf N concentration, and ecosystem N partitioning, observed at 22 forest N fertilization experiments. Employing flexible ecosystem pool C : N ratios generally resulted in the most convincing model-data agreement with respect to production and foliar N responses. An intermediate degree of stoichiometric flexibility in vegetation, where wood C : N ratio changes were decoupled from leaf and root C : N ratio changes, led to consistent simulation of production and N cycle responses to N addition. Assuming fixed C : N ratios or scaling leaf N concentration changes to other tissues, commonly assumed by DGVMs, was not supported by reported data. Between the tested assumptions, the simulated changes in ecosystem C storage relative to changes in C assimilation varied by up to 20%. © 2015 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2015 New Phytologist Trust.

  16. Modelling the soil carbon cycle of pine ecosystems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nakane, K.

    1994-01-01

    Soil carbon cycling rates and carbon budgets were calculated for stands of four pine species. Pinus sylvestris (at Jaedraaas, Sweden), P. densiflora (Hiroshima, Japan), P. elliottii (Florida, USA) and P. radiata (Canberra, Australia), using a simulation model driven by daily observations of mean air temperature and precipitation. Inputs to soil carbon through litterfall differ considerably among the four pine forests, but the accumulation of the A 0 layer and humus in mineral soil is less variable. Decomposition of the A 0 layer and humus is fastest for P. densiflora and slowest for P. sylvestris stands with P. radiata and P. elliottii intermediate. The decomposition rate is lower for the P. elliottii stand than for P. densiflora in spite of its higher temperatures and slightly higher precipitation. Seasonal changes in simulated soil carbon are observed only for the A 0 layer at the P. densiflora site. Simulated soil respiration rates vary seasonally in three stands (P. sylvestris, P. densiflora and P. radiata). In simulations for pine trees planted on bare soil, all soil organic matter fractions except the humus in mineral soil recover to half their asymptotic values within 30 to 40 years of planting for P. sylvestris and P. densiflora, compared with 10 to 20 years for P. radiata and P. elliottii. The simulated recovery of soil carbon following clear-cutting is fastest for the P. elliottii stand and slowest for P. sylvestris. Management of P. elliottii and P. radiata stands on 40-years rotations is sustainable because carbon removed through harvest is restored in the interval between successive clear-cuts. However p. densiflora and P. sylvestris stands may be unable to maintain soil carbon under such a short rotation. High growth rates of P. elliottii and p. radiata stands in spite of relatively poor soil conditions and slow carbon cycling may be related to the physiological responses of species to environmental conditions. (Abstract Truncated)

  17. Applying and Individual-Based Model to Simultaneously Evaluate Net Ecosystem Production and Tree Diameter Increment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fang, F. J.

    2017-12-01

    Reconciling observations at fundamentally different scales is central in understanding the global carbon cycle. This study investigates a model-based melding of forest inventory data, remote-sensing data and micrometeorological-station data ("flux towers" estimating forest heat, CO2 and H2O fluxes). The individual tree-based model FORCCHN was used to evaluate the tree DBH increment and forest carbon fluxes. These are the first simultaneous simulations of the forest carbon budgets from flux towers and individual-tree growth estimates of forest carbon budgets using the continuous forest inventory data — under circumstances in which both predictions can be tested. Along with the global implications of such findings, this also improves the capacity for forest sustainable management and the comprehensive understanding of forest ecosystems. In forest ecology, diameter at breast height (DBH) of a tree significantly determines an individual tree's cross-sectional sapwood area, its biomass and carbon storage. Evaluation the annual DBH increment (ΔDBH) of an individual tree is central to understanding tree growth and forest ecology. Ecosystem Carbon flux is a consequence of key ecosystem processes in the forest-ecosystem carbon cycle, Gross and Net Primary Production (GPP and NPP, respectively) and Net Ecosystem Respiration (NEP). All of these closely relate with tree DBH changes and tree death. Despite advances in evaluating forest carbon fluxes with flux towers and forest inventories for individual tree ΔDBH, few current ecological models can simultaneously quantify and predict the tree ΔDBH and forest carbon flux.

  18. Preliminary analysis of the Jimo coastal ecosystem with the ecopath model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, Meng

    2016-12-01

    The Jimo coast encompasses an area of 2157 km2, and the ecosystem is valuable both socially and economically with regional fisheries substantially contributing to the value. A mass-balanced trophic model consisting of 15 functional ecological groups was developed for the coastal ecosystem using the Ecopath model in Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE) software (version 6.4.3). The results of the model simulations indicated that the trophic levels of the functional groups varied between 1.0 and 3.76, and the total production of the system was estimated to be 5112.733 t km-2 yr-1 with a total energy transfer efficiency of 17.6%. The proportion of the total flow originating from detritus was estimated to be 48%, whereas that from primary producers was 52%, indicating that the grazing food chain dominated the energy flow. The ratio of total primary productivity to total respiration in the system was 3.78, and the connectivity index was 0.4. The fin cycling index and the mean path length of the energy flow were 4.92% and 2.57%, respectively, which indicated that the ecosystem exhibits relatively low maturity and stability. The mixed trophic impact (MTI) procedure suggested that the ecological groups at lower trophic levels dominated the feeding dynamics in the Jimo coastal ecosystem. Overfishing is thought to be the primary reason for the degeneration of the Jimo coastal ecosystem, resulting in a decline in the abundance of pelagic and demersal fish species and a subsequent shift to the predominance of lower-trophic-level functional groups. Finally, we offered some recommendations for improving current fishery management practices.

  19. Multilayer Spectral Graph Clustering via Convex Layer Aggregation: Theory and Algorithms

    OpenAIRE

    Chen, Pin-Yu; Hero, Alfred O.

    2017-01-01

    Multilayer graphs are commonly used for representing different relations between entities and handling heterogeneous data processing tasks. Non-standard multilayer graph clustering methods are needed for assigning clusters to a common multilayer node set and for combining information from each layer. This paper presents a multilayer spectral graph clustering (SGC) framework that performs convex layer aggregation. Under a multilayer signal plus noise model, we provide a phase transition analys...

  20. Multilayer network modeling of integrated biological systems. Comment on "Network science of biological systems at different scales: A review" by Gosak et al.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Domenico, Manlio

    2018-03-01

    Biological systems, from a cell to the human brain, are inherently complex. A powerful representation of such systems, described by an intricate web of relationships across multiple scales, is provided by complex networks. Recently, several studies are highlighting how simple networks - obtained by aggregating or neglecting temporal or categorical description of biological data - are not able to account for the richness of information characterizing biological systems. More complex models, namely multilayer networks, are needed to account for interdependencies, often varying across time, of biological interacting units within a cell, a tissue or parts of an organism.

  1. A Technology-Neutral Role-Based Collaboration Model for Software Ecosystems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stanciulescu, Stefan; Rabiser, Daniela; Seidl, Christoph

    2016-01-01

    by contributing a role-based collaboration model for software ecosystems to make such implicit similarities explicit and to raise awareness among developers during their ongoing efforts. We extract this model based on realization artifacts in a specific programming language located in a particular source code......In large-scale software ecosystems, many developers contribute extensions to a common software platform. Due to the independent development efforts and the lack of a central steering mechanism, similar functionality may be developed multiple times by different developers. We tackle this problem...... efforts and information of ongoing development efforts. Finally, using the collaborations defined in the formalism we model real artifacts from Marlin, a firmware for 3D printers, and we show that for the selected scenarios, the five collaborations were sufficient to raise awareness and make implicit...

  2. Emergence of a complex and stable network in a model ecosystem with extinction and mutation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tokita, Kei; Yasutomi, Ayumu

    2003-03-01

    We propose a minimal model of the dynamics of diversity-replicator equations with extinction, invasion and mutation. We numerically study the behavior of this simple model and show that it displays completely different behavior from the conventional replicator equation and the generalized Lotka-Volterra equation. We reach several significant conclusions as follows: (1) a complex ecosystem can emerge when mutants with respect to species-specific interaction are introduced; (2) such an ecosystem possesses strong resistance to invasion; (3) a typical fixation process of mutants is realized through the rapid growth of a group of mutualistic mutants with higher fitness than majority species; (4) a hierarchical taxonomic structure (like family-genus-species) emerges; and (5) the relative abundance of species exhibits a typical pattern widely observed in nature. Several implications of these results are discussed in connection with the relationship of the present model to the generalized Lotka-Volterra equation.

  3. Modeling and validating tritium transfer in a grassland ecosystem in response to {sup 3}H releases

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Le Dizes, S. [Institute for Radioprotection and Nuclear Safety, IRSN/PRP-ENV/SERIS/LM2E, Centre de Cadarache, Saint-Paul-lez-Durance (France); Maro, D.; Rozet, M.; Hebert, D. [IRSN/PRP-ENV/SERIS/LRC, Cherbourg-Octeville (France)

    2015-03-15

    In this paper a radioecological model (TOCATTA) for tritium transfer in a grassland ecosystem developed on an hourly time-step basis is proposed and compared with the first data set obtained in the vicinity of the AREVA-NC reprocessing plant of La Hague (France). The TOCATTA model aims at simulating dynamics of tritium transfer in agricultural soil and plant ecosystems exposed to time-varying HTO concentrations in air water vapour and possibly in irrigation and rain water. In the present study, gaseous releases of tritium from the AREVA NC nuclear reprocessing plant in normal operation can be intense and intermittent over a period of less than 24 hours. A first comparison of the model predictions with the field data has shown that TOCATTA should be improved in terms of kinetics of tritium transfer.

  4. Discussion of skill improvement in marine ecosystem dynamic models based on parameter optimization and skill assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Chengcheng; Shi, Honghua; Liu, Yongzhi; Li, Fen; Ding, Dewen

    2016-07-01

    Marine ecosystem dynamic models (MEDMs) are important tools for the simulation and prediction of marine ecosystems. This article summarizes the methods and strategies used for the improvement and assessment of MEDM skill, and it attempts to establish a technical framework to inspire further ideas concerning MEDM skill improvement. The skill of MEDMs can be improved by parameter optimization (PO), which is an important step in model calibration. An efficient approach to solve the problem of PO constrained by MEDMs is the global treatment of both sensitivity analysis and PO. Model validation is an essential step following PO, which validates the efficiency of model calibration by analyzing and estimating the goodness-of-fit of the optimized model. Additionally, by focusing on the degree of impact of various factors on model skill, model uncertainty analysis can supply model users with a quantitative assessment of model confidence. Research on MEDMs is ongoing; however, improvement in model skill still lacks global treatments and its assessment is not integrated. Thus, the predictive performance of MEDMs is not strong and model uncertainties lack quantitative descriptions, limiting their application. Therefore, a large number of case studies concerning model skill should be performed to promote the development of a scientific and normative technical framework for the improvement of MEDM skill.

  5. A model using marginal efficiency of investment to analyse carbon and nitrogen interactions in forested ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, R. Q.; Williams, M.

    2014-12-01

    Carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) cycles are coupled in terrestrial ecosystems through multiple processes including photosynthesis, tissue allocation, respiration, N fixation, N uptake, and decomposition of litter and soil organic matter. Capturing the constraint of N on terrestrial C uptake and storage has been a focus of the Earth System modelling community. Here we explore the trade-offs and sensitivities of allocating C and N to different tissues in order to optimize the productivity of plants using a new, simple model of ecosystem C-N cycling and interactions (ACONITE). ACONITE builds on theory related to plant economics in order to predict key ecosystem properties (leaf area index, leaf C:N, N fixation, and plant C use efficiency) based on the optimization of the marginal change in net C or N uptake associated with a change in allocation of C or N to plant tissues. We simulated and evaluated steady-state and transient ecosystem stocks and fluxes in three different forest ecosystems types (tropical evergreen, temperate deciduous, and temperate evergreen). Leaf C:N differed among the three ecosystem types (temperate deciduous database describing plant traits. Gross primary productivity (GPP) and net primary productivity (NPP) estimates compared well to observed fluxes at the simulation sites. A sensitivity analysis revealed that parameterization of the relationship between leaf N and leaf respiration had the largest influence on leaf area index and leaf C:N. Also, a widely used linear leaf N-respiration relationship did not yield a realistic leaf C:N, while a more recently reported non-linear relationship simulated leaf C:N that compared better to the global trait database than the linear relationship. Overall, our ability to constrain leaf area index and allow spatially and temporally variable leaf C:N can help address challenges simulating these properties in ecosystem and Earth System models. Furthermore, the simple approach with emergent properties based on

  6. Carbon fluxes in ecosystems of Yellowstone National Park predicted from remote sensing data and simulation modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Potter, Christopher; Klooster, Steven; Crabtree, Robert; Huang, Shengli; Gross, Peggy; Genovese, Vanessa

    2011-08-11

    A simulation model based on remote sensing data for spatial vegetation properties has been used to estimate ecosystem carbon fluxes across Yellowstone National Park (YNP). The CASA (Carnegie Ames Stanford Approach) model was applied at a regional scale to estimate seasonal and annual carbon fluxes as net primary production (NPP) and soil respiration components. Predicted net ecosystem production (NEP) flux of CO2 is estimated from the model for carbon sinks and sources over multi-year periods that varied in climate and (wildfire) disturbance histories. Monthly Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) image coverages from the NASA Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument (from 2000 to 2006) were direct inputs to the model. New map products have been added to CASA from airborne remote sensing of coarse woody debris (CWD) in areas burned by wildfires over the past two decades. Model results indicated that relatively cooler and wetter summer growing seasons were the most favorable for annual plant production and net ecosystem carbon gains in representative landscapes of YNP. When summed across vegetation class areas, the predominance of evergreen forest and shrubland (sagebrush) cover was evident, with these two classes together accounting for 88% of the total annual NPP flux of 2.5 Tg C yr-1 (1 Tg = 1012 g) for the entire Yellowstone study area from 2000-2006. Most vegetation classes were estimated as net ecosystem sinks of atmospheric CO2 on annual basis, making the entire study area a moderate net sink of about +0.13 Tg C yr-1. This average sink value for forested lands nonetheless masks the contribution of areas burned during the 1988 wildfires, which were estimated as net sources of CO2 to the atmosphere, totaling to a NEP flux of -0.04 Tg C yr-1 for the entire burned area. Several areas burned in the 1988 wildfires were estimated to be among the lowest in overall yearly NPP, namely the Hellroaring Fire, Mink Fire, and Falls Fire areas. Rates of

  7. Modeling Soil Quality Thresholds to Ecosystem Recovery at Fort Benning, Georgia, USA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garten Jr., C.T.

    2004-03-08

    The objective of this research was to use a simple model of soil C and N dynamics to predict nutrient thresholds to ecosystem recovery on degraded soils at Fort Benning, Georgia, in the southeastern USA. The model calculates aboveground and belowground biomass, soil C inputs and dynamics, soil N stocks and availability, and plant N requirements. A threshold is crossed when predicted soil N supplies fall short of predicted N required to sustain biomass accrual at a specified recovery rate. Four factors were important to development of thresholds to recovery: (1) initial amounts of aboveground biomass, (2) initial soil C stocks (i.e., soil quality), (3) relative recovery rates of biomass, and (4) soil sand content. Thresholds to ecosystem recovery predicted by the model should not be interpreted independent of a specified recovery rate. Initial soil C stocks influenced the predicted patterns of recovery by both old field and forest ecosystems. Forests and old fields on soils with varying sand content had different predicted thresholds to recovery. Soil C stocks at barren sites on Fort Benning generally lie below predicted thresholds to 100% recovery of desired future ecosystem conditions defined on the basis of aboveground biomass (18000 versus 360 g m{sup -2} for forests and old fields, respectively). Calculations with the model indicated that reestablishment of vegetation on barren sites to a level below the desired future condition is possible at recovery rates used in the model, but the time to 100% recovery of desired future conditions, without crossing a nutrient threshold, is prolonged by a reduced rate of forest growth. Predicted thresholds to ecosystem recovery were less on soils with more than 70% sand content. The lower thresholds for old field and forest recovery on more sandy soils are apparently due to higher relative rates of net soil N mineralization in more sandy soils. Calculations with the model indicate that a combination of desired future

  8. Modelling the ecological vulnerability to forest fires in mediterranean ecosystems using geographic information technologies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duguy, Beatriz; Alloza, José Antonio; Baeza, M Jaime; De la Riva, Juan; Echeverría, Maite; Ibarra, Paloma; Llovet, Juan; Cabello, Fernando Pérez; Rovira, Pere; Vallejo, Ramon V

    2012-12-01

    Forest fires represent a major driver of change at the ecosystem and landscape levels in the Mediterranean region. Environmental features and vegetation are key factors to estimate the ecological vulnerability to fire; defined as the degree to which an ecosystem is susceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverse effects of fire (provided a fire occurs). Given the predicted climatic changes for the region, it is urgent to validate spatially explicit tools for assessing this vulnerability in order to support the design of new fire prevention and restoration strategies. This work presents an innovative GIS-based modelling approach to evaluate the ecological vulnerability to fire of an ecosystem, considering its main components (soil and vegetation) and different time scales. The evaluation was structured in three stages: short-term (focussed on soil degradation risk), medium-term (focussed on changes in vegetation), and coupling of the short- and medium-term vulnerabilities. The model was implemented in two regions: Aragón (inland North-eastern Spain) and Valencia (eastern Spain). Maps of the ecological vulnerability to fire were produced at a regional scale. We partially validated the model in a study site combining two complementary approaches that focused on testing the adequacy of model's predictions in three ecosystems, all very common in fire-prone landscapes of eastern Spain: two shrublands and a pine forest. Both approaches were based on the comparison of model's predictions with values of NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index), which is considered a good proxy for green biomass. Both methods showed that the model's performance is satisfactory when applied to the three selected vegetation types.

  9. USGS River Ecosystem Modeling: Where Are We, How Did We Get Here, and Where Are We Going?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanson, Leanne; Schrock, Robin; Waddle, Terry; Duda, Jeffrey J.; Lellis, Bill

    2009-01-01

    This report developed as an outcome of the USGS River Ecosystem Modeling Work Group, convened on February 11, 2008 as a preconference session to the second USGS Modeling Conference in Orange Beach, Ala. Work Group participants gained an understanding of the types of models currently being applied to river ecosystem studies within the USGS, learned how model outputs are being used by a Federal land management agency, and developed recommendations for advancing the state of the art in river ecosystem modeling within the USGS. During a break-out session, participants restated many of the recommendations developed at the first USGS Modeling Conference in 2006 and in previous USGS needs assessments. All Work Group recommendations require organization and coordination across USGS disciplines and regions, and include (1) enhancing communications, (2) increasing efficiency through better use of current human and technologic resources, and (3) providing a national infrastructure for river ecosystem modeling resources, making it easier to integrate modeling efforts. By implementing these recommendations, the USGS will benefit from enhanced multi-disciplinary, integrated models for river ecosystems that provide valuable risk assessment and decision support tools for adaptive management of natural and managed riverine ecosystems. These tools generate key information that resource managers need and can use in making decisions about river ecosystem resources.

  10. The limnic ecosystems at Forsmark and Laxemar-Simpevarp. Site descriptive modelling SDM-Site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Norden, Sara; Soederbaeck, Bjoern; Andersson, Eva

    2008-11-01

    The overall objective of this report is to provide a thorough description of the limnic ecosystems at both Forsmark and Laxemar-Simpevarp. This information may be used in the Safety Assessment and as a basis for the Environmental Impact Assessment. Three aims were set up for the report: 1) to characterize and describe the limnic ecosystems today and in the past in the Forsmark and Laxemar-Simpevarp areas and compare these ecosystems with limnic ecosystems in other areas; 2) to evaluate and visualize major pools, fluxes and sinks of elements within the limnic ecosystems; and finally 3) to describe human impact on the limnic ecosystems. The report includes a thorough description of the lakes and streams in Forsmark and Laxemar-Simpevarp and covers the following areas: catchment area characteristics, hydrology, climate, sediment characteristics, physical characteristics of streams, habitat distribution in lakes, biotic components, water chemistry, comparisons with other lakes and streams in the region, and a historical description. Ecosystem models for carbon and mass balances for a number of elements have been calculated to further improve the understanding of the lake ecosystems. Important processes for the safety assessment are described and evaluated in the report. The Forsmark regional model area contains more than 20 permanent lakes and pools. All lakes are small and shallow, and are characterized as oligotrophic hardwater lakes. Calcareous soils in the area give rise to high calcium concentrations in the surface water, which in turn leads to high pH and low nutrient concentrations in water as phosphorus often co-precipitates with calcium. The shallow depths and moderate water colour permit photosynthesis in the entire benthic habitat of the lakes, and the bottoms are covered by dense stands of the macroalgae Chara sp. Moreover, many of the lakes also have a thick microbial mat (>10 cm), consisting of cyanobacteria and diatoms, in the benthic habitat. Fish in

  11. The PEcAn Project: Accessible Tools for On-demand Ecosystem Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cowdery, E.; Kooper, R.; LeBauer, D.; Desai, A. R.; Mantooth, J.; Dietze, M.

    2014-12-01

    Ecosystem models play a critical role in understanding the terrestrial biosphere and forecasting changes in the carbon cycle, however current forecasts have considerable uncertainty. The amount of data being collected and produced is increasing on daily basis as we enter the "big data" era, but only a fraction of this data is being used to constrain models. Until we can improve the problems of model accessibility and model-data communication, none of these resources can be used to their full potential. The Predictive Ecosystem Analyzer (PEcAn) is an ecoinformatics toolbox and a set of workflows that wrap around an ecosystem model and manage the flow of information in and out of regional-scale TBMs. Here we present new modules developed in PEcAn to manage the processing of meteorological data, one of the primary driver dependencies for ecosystem models. The module downloads, reads, extracts, and converts meteorological observations to Unidata Climate Forecast (CF) NetCDF community standard, a convention used for most climate forecast and weather models. The module also automates the conversion from NetCDF to model specific formats, including basic merging, gap-filling, and downscaling procedures. PEcAn currently supports tower-based micrometeorological observations at Ameriflux and FluxNET sites, site-level CSV-formatted data, and regional and global reanalysis products such as the North American Regional Reanalysis and CRU-NCEP. The workflow is easily extensible to additional products and processing algorithms.These meteorological workflows have been coupled with the PEcAn web interface and now allow anyone to run multiple ecosystem models for any location on the Earth by simply clicking on an intuitive Google-map based interface. This will allow users to more readily compare models to observations at those sites, leading to better calibration and validation. Current work is extending these workflows to also process field, remotely-sensed, and historical

  12. Thermally induced delamination of multilayers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Bent F.; Sarraute, S.; Jørgensen, O.

    1998-01-01

    Steady-state delamination of multilayered structures, caused by stresses arising during processing due to thermal expansion mismatch, is analyzed by a fracture mechanics model based on laminate theory. It is found that inserting just a few interlayers with intermediate thermal expansion coefficie...... coefficients may be an effective way of reducing the delamination energy release rate. Uneven layer thickness and increasing elastic mismatch are shown to raise the energy release rate. Experimental work confirms important trends of the model.......Steady-state delamination of multilayered structures, caused by stresses arising during processing due to thermal expansion mismatch, is analyzed by a fracture mechanics model based on laminate theory. It is found that inserting just a few interlayers with intermediate thermal expansion...

  13. Nitrogen controls on ecosystem carbon sequestration: a model implementation and application to Saskatchewan, Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, J.; Price, D.T.; Chen, J.M.

    2005-01-01

    A plant–soil nitrogen (N) cycling model was developed and incorporated into the Integrated BIosphere Simulator (IBIS) of Foley et al. [Foley, J.A., Prentice, I.C., Ramankutty, N., Levis, S., Pollard, D., Sitch, S., Haxeltine, A., 1996. An integrated biosphere model of land surface process, terrestrial carbon balance and vegetation dynamics. Global Biogeochem. Cycles 10, 603–628]. In the N-model, soil mineral N regulates ecosystem carbon (C) fluxes and ecosystem C:N ratios. Net primary productivity (NPP) is controlled by feedbacks from both leaf C:N and soil mineral N. Leaf C:N determines the foliar and canopy photosynthesis rates, while soil mineral N determines the N availability for plant growth and the efficiency of biomass construction. Nitrogen controls on the decomposition of soil organic matter (SOM) are implemented through N immobilization and mineralization separately. The model allows greater SOM mineralization at lower mineral N, and conversely, allows greater N immobilization at higher mineral N. The model's seasonal and inter-annual behaviours are demonstrated. A regional simulation for Saskatchewan, Canada, was performed for the period 1851–2000 at a 10 km × 10 km resolution. Simulated NPP was compared with high-resolution (1 km × 1 km) NPP estimated from remote sensing data using the boreal ecosystem productivity simulator (BEPS) [Liu, J., Chen, J.M., Cihlar, J., Park, W.M., 1997. A process-based boreal ecosystem productivity simulator using remote sensing inputs. Remote Sens. Environ. 44, 81–87]. The agreement between IBIS and BEPS, particularly in NPP spatial variation, was considerably improved when the N controls were introduced into IBIS.

  14. Modelling Potential Consequences of Different Geo-Engineering Treatments for the Baltic Sea Ecosystem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schrum, C.; Daewel, U.

    2017-12-01

    From 1950 onwards, the Baltic Sea ecosystem suffered increasingly from eutrophication. The most obvious reason for the eutrophication is the huge amount of nutrients (nitrogen and phosphorus) reaching the Baltic Sea from human activities. However, although nutrient loads have been decreasing since 1980, the hypoxic areas have not decreased accordingly. Thus, geo-engineering projects were discussed and evaluated to artificially ventilate the Baltic Sea deep water and suppress nutrient release from the sediments. Here, we aim at understanding the consequences of proposed geo-engineering projects in the Baltic Sea using long-term scenario modelling. For that purpose, we utilize a 3d coupled ecosystem model ECOSMO E2E, a novel NPZD-Fish model approach that resolves hydrodynamics, biogeochemical cycling and lower and higher trophic level dynamics. We performed scenario modelling that consider proposed geo-engineering projects such as artificial ventilation of Baltic Sea deep waters and phosphorus binding in sediments with polyaluminium chlorides. The model indicates that deep-water ventilation indeed suppresses phosphorus release in the first 1-4 years of treatment. Thereafter macrobenthos repopulates the formerly anoxic bottom regions and nutrients are increasingly recycled in the food web. Consequently, overall system productivity and fish biomass increases and toxic algae blooms decrease. However, deep-water ventilation has no long-lasting effect on the ecosystem: soon after completion of the ventilation process, the system turns back into its original state. Artificial phosphorus binding in sediments in contrast decreases overall ecosystem productivity through permanent removal of phosphorus. As expected it decreases bacterial production and toxic algae blooms, but it also decreases fish production substantially. Contrastingly to deep water ventilation, artificial phosphorus binding show a long-lasting effect over decades after termination of the treatment.

  15. Modelling carbon and water flows in terrestrial ecosystems in the boreal zone - examples from Oskarshamn

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Karlberg, Louise [Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI), Stockholm (Sweden); Gu stafsson, David; Jansson, Per-Erik [Royal Inst. of Technology, Dept. of Land and Water Resources Engineering, Stockholm (Sweden)

    2007-12-15

    Carbon budgets and mean residence times were estimated in four hypothetical ecosystems. The greatest uncertainties in the estimations lie in the calculation of fluxes to and from the field layer. A parametrisation method based on multiple criteria, synthesising a wide range of empirical knowledge on ecosystem behaviour, proved to be useful both in the estimation of unknown parameters, to demonstrate model sensitivity, and to identify processes where our current knowledge is limited. The parameterizations derived from the study of the hypothetical systems were used to estimate site-specific carbon and water budgets for four ecosystems located within the Oskarshamn study-area. Measured soil respiration was used to calibrate the simulations. An analysis of the simulated carbon fluxes indicated that two of the ecosystems, namely the grassland and the spruce forest, were net sources of carbon dioxide, while the alder and the pine forest were net sinks of CO{sub 2}. In the former case, this was interpreted as a result of recent drainage of the organogenic soils and the concurrent increase in decomposition. The results from the study conformed rather well with results from a previous study on carbon budgets from the Oskarshamn study area.

  16. Modelling carbon and water flows in terrestrial ecosystems in the boreal zone - examples from Oskarshamn

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karlberg, Louise; Gu stafsson, David; Jansson, Per-Erik

    2007-12-01

    Carbon budgets and mean residence times were estimated in four hypothetical ecosystems. The greatest uncertainties in the estimations lie in the calculation of fluxes to and from the field layer. A parametrisation method based on multiple criteria, synthesising a wide range of empirical knowledge on ecosystem behaviour, proved to be useful both in the estimation of unknown parameters, to demonstrate model sensitivity, and to identify processes where our current knowledge is limited. The parameterizations derived from the study of the hypothetical systems were used to estimate site-specific carbon and water budgets for four ecosystems located within the Oskarshamn study-area. Measured soil respiration was used to calibrate the simulations. An analysis of the simulated carbon fluxes indicated that two of the ecosystems, namely the grassland and the spruce forest, were net sources of carbon dioxide, while the alder and the pine forest were net sinks of CO 2 . In the former case, this was interpreted as a result of recent drainage of the organogenic soils and the concurrent increase in decomposition. The results from the study conformed rather well with results from a previous study on carbon budgets from the Oskarshamn study area

  17. Biological soil crusts (biocrusts) as a model system in community, landscape and ecosystem ecology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowker, Matthew A.; Maestre, Fernando T.; Eldridge, David; Belnap, Jayne; Castillo-Monroy, Andrea; Escolar, Cristina; Soliveres, Santiago

    2014-01-01

    Model systems have had a profound influence on the development of ecological theory and general principles. Compared to alternatives, the most effective models share some combination of the following characteristics: simpler, smaller, faster, general, idiosyncratic or manipulable. We argue that biological soil crusts (biocrusts) have unique combinations of these features that should be more widely exploited in community, landscape and ecosystem ecology. In community ecology, biocrusts are elucidating the importance of biodiversity and spatial pattern for maintaining ecosystem multifunctionality due to their manipulability in experiments. Due to idiosyncrasies in their modes of facilitation and competition, biocrusts have led to new models on the interplay between environmental stress and biotic interactions and on the maintenance of biodiversity by competitive processes. Biocrusts are perhaps one of the best examples of micro-landscapes—real landscapes that are small in size. Although they exhibit varying patch heterogeneity, aggregation, connectivity and fragmentation, like macro-landscapes, they are also compatible with well-replicated experiments (unlike macro-landscapes). In ecosystem ecology, a number of studies are imposing small-scale, low cost manipulations of global change or state factors in biocrust micro-landscapes. The versatility of biocrusts to inform such disparate lines of inquiry suggests that they are an especially useful model system that can enable researchers to see ecological principles more clearly and quickly.

  18. Modeling coupled interactions of carbon, water, and ozone exchange between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere. I: Model description

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nikolov, Ned; Zeller, Karl F.

    2003-01-01

    A new biophysical model (FORFLUX) is presented to link ozone deposition with carbon and water cycles in terrestrial ecosystems. - A new biophysical model (FORFLUX) is presented to study the simultaneous exchange of ozone, carbon dioxide, and water vapor between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere. The model mechanistically couples all major processes controlling ecosystem flows trace gases and water implementing recent concepts in plant eco-physiology, micrometeorology, and soil hydrology. FORFLUX consists of four interconnected modules-a leaf photosynthesis model, a canopy flux model, a soil heat-, water- and CO 2 - transport model, and a snow pack model. Photosynthesis, water-vapor flux and ozone uptake at the leaf level are computed by the LEAFC3 sub-model. The canopy module scales leaf responses to a stand level by numerical integration of the LEAFC3 model over canopy leaf area index (LAI). The integration takes into account (1) radiative transfer inside the canopy, (2) variation of foliage photosynthetic capacity with canopy depth, (3) wind speed attenuation throughout the canopy, and (4) rainfall interception by foliage elements. The soil module uses principles of the diffusion theory to predict temperature and moisture dynamics within the soil column, evaporation, and CO 2 efflux from soil. The effect of soil heterogeneity on field-scale fluxes is simulated employing the Bresler-Dagan stochastic concept. The accumulation and melt of snow on the ground is predicted using an explicit energy balance approach. Ozone deposition is modeled as a sum of three fluxes- ozone uptake via plant stomata, deposition to non-transpiring plant surfaces, and ozone flux into the ground. All biophysical interactions are computed hourly while model projections are made at either hourly or daily time step. FORFLUX represents a comprehensive approach to studying ozone deposition and its link to carbon and water cycles in terrestrial ecosystems

  19. Introducing mixotrophy into a biogeochemical model describing an eutrophied coastal ecosystem: The Southern North Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghyoot, Caroline; Lancelot, Christiane; Flynn, Kevin J.; Mitra, Aditee; Gypens, Nathalie

    2017-09-01

    Most biogeochemical/ecological models divide planktonic protists between phototrophs (phytoplankton) and heterotrophs (zooplankton). However, a large number of planktonic protists are able to combine several mechanisms of carbon and nutrient acquisition. Not representing these multiple mechanisms in biogeochemical/ecological models describing eutrophied coastal ecosystems can potentially lead to different conclusions regarding ecosystem functioning, especially regarding the success of harmful algae, which are often reported as mixotrophic. This modelling study investigates the implications for trophic dynamics of including 3 contrasting forms of mixotrophy, namely osmotrophy (using alkaline phosphatase activity, APA), non-constitutive mixotrophy (acquired phototrophy by microzooplankton) and also constitutive mixotrophy. The application is in the Southern North Sea, an ecosystem that faced, between 1985 and 2005, a significant increase in the nutrient supply N:P ratio (from 31 to 81 mol N:P). The comparison with a traditional model shows that, when the winter N:P ratio in the Southern North Sea is above 22 molN molP-1 (as occurred from mid-1990s), APA allows a 3-32% increase of annual gross primary production (GPP). In result of the higher GPP, the annual sedimentation increases as well as the bacterial production. By contrast, APA does not affect the export of matter to higher trophic levels because the increased GPP is mainly due to Phaeocystis colonies, which are not grazed by copepods. Under high irradiance, non-constitutive mixotrophy appreciably increases annual GPP, transfer to higher trophic levels, sedimentation, and nutrient remineralisation. In this ecosystem, non-constitutive mixotrophy is also observed to have an indirect stimulating effect on diatoms. Constitutive mixotrophy in nanoflagellates appears to have little influence on this ecosystem functioning. An important conclusion from this work is that contrasting forms of mixotrophy have different

  20. The limnic ecosystems at Forsmark and Laxemar-Simpevarp. Site descriptive modelling SDM-Site

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Norden, Sara; Soederbaeck, Bjoern [Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co., Stockholm (Sweden); Andersson, Eva [SWECO, Stockholm (Sweden)

    2008-11-15

    The overall objective of this report is to provide a thorough description of the limnic ecosystems at both Forsmark and Laxemar-Simpevarp. This information may be used in the Safety Assessment and as a basis for the Environmental Impact Assessment. Three aims were set up for the report: 1) to characterize and describe the limnic ecosystems today and in the past in the Forsmark and Laxemar-Simpevarp areas and compare these ecosystems with limnic ecosystems in other areas; 2) to evaluate and visualize major pools, fluxes and sinks of elements within the limnic ecosystems; and finally 3) to describe human impact on the limnic ecosystems. The report includes a thorough description of the lakes and streams in Forsmark and Laxemar-Simpevarp and covers the following areas: catchment area characteristics, hydrology, climate, sediment characteristics, physical characteristics of streams, habitat distribution in lakes, biotic components, water chemistry, comparisons with other lakes and streams in the region, and a historical description. Ecosystem models for carbon and mass balances for a number of elements have been calculated to further improve the understanding of the lake ecosystems. Important processes for the safety assessment are described and evaluated in the report. The Forsmark regional model area contains more than 20 permanent lakes and pools. All lakes are small and shallow, and are characterized as oligotrophic hardwater lakes. Calcareous soils in the area give rise to high calcium concentrations in the surface water, which in turn leads to high pH and low nutrient concentrations in water as phosphorus often co-precipitates with calcium. The shallow depths and moderate water colour permit photosynthesis in the entire benthic habitat of the lakes, and the bottoms are covered by dense stands of the macroalgae Chara sp. Moreover, many of the lakes also have a thick microbial mat (>10 cm), consisting of cyanobacteria and diatoms, in the benthic habitat. Fish in

  1. Testing the performance of a Dynamic Global Ecosystem Model: Water balance, carbon balance, and vegetation structure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kucharik, Christopher J.; Foley, Jonathan A.; Delire, Christine; Fisher, Veronica A.; Coe, Michael T.; Lenters, John D.; Young-Molling, Christine; Ramankutty, Navin; Norman, John M.; Gower, Stith T.

    2000-09-01

    While a new class of Dynamic Global Ecosystem Models (DGEMs) has emerged in the past few years as an important tool for describing global biogeochemical cycles and atmosphere-biosphere interactions, these models are still largely untested. Here we analyze the behavior of a new DGEM and compare the results to global-scale observations of water balance, carbon balance, and vegetation structure. In this study, we use version 2 of the Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS), which includes several major improvements and additions to the prototype model developed by Foley et al. [1996]. IBIS is designed to be a comprehensive model of the terrestrial biosphere; the model represents a wide range of processes, including land surface physics, canopy physiology, plant phenology, vegetation dynamics and competition, and carbon and nutrient cycling. The model generates global simulations of the surface water balance (e.g., runoff), the terrestrial carbon balance (e.g., net primary production, net ecosystem exchange, soil carbon, aboveground and belowground litter, and soil CO2 fluxes), and vegetation structure (e.g., biomass, leaf area index, and vegetation composition). In order to test the performance of the model, we have assembled a wide range of continental and global-scale data, including measurements of river discharge, net primary production, vegetation structure, root biomass, soil carbon, litter carbon, and soil CO2 flux. Using these field data and model results for the contemporary biosphere (1965-1994), our evaluation shows that simulated patterns of runoff, NPP, biomass, leaf area index, soil carbon, and total soil CO2 flux agree reasonably well with measurements that have been compiled from numerous ecosystems. These results also compare favorably to other global model results.

  2. Modeling Temporal and Spatial Flows of Ecosystem Services in Chittenden County, VT

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voigt, B. G.; Bagstad, K.; Johnson, G.; Villa, F.

    2010-12-01

    This paper documents the integration of ARIES (ARtificial Intelligence for Ecosystem Services) with the land use change model UrbanSim to explore the impacts of current and future land use patterns on flood protection and water provision services in Chittenden County, VT. ARIES, an open source modeling platform, is particularly well-suited for measuring, mapping, and modeling the temporal and spatial flows of ecosystem services across the landscape, linking the areas of provision (sources) with human beneficiaries (users) through a spatially explicit agent-based modeling approach. UrbanSim is an open source agent-based land use model designed to facilitate a wide-range of scenarios based on user-specified behavioral assumptions, zoning regulations, and demographic, economic, and infrastructure (e.g. transportation, water, sewer, etc.) parameters. Ecosystem services travel through time and space and are susceptible to disruption and destruction from both natural and anthropogenic perturbations. The conversion of forested or agricultural land to urbanizing uses is replete with a long history of hydrologic impairment, habitat fragmentation, and the degradation of sensitive landscapes. Development decisions are predicated on the presence of landscape characteristics that meet the needs of developers and satisfy the desires of consumers, with minimal consideration of access to or effect on the provision of ecosystem services. The County houses nearly 25% of the state’s population and several employment centers that draw labor from throughout the region. Additionally, the County is expected to maintain modest residential and employment growth over the next 30 years, and will continue to serve as the state’s population and employment center. Expected future growth is likely to adversely affect the remaining farm and forest land in the County in the absence of policies to support sustainable development. We demonstrate how ARIES can be used to quantify changes in

  3. Experimental study and modelization of radium transfer in a simplified aquatic ecosystem

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bruno, V.

    1990-11-01

    Radium transfer has been studied in an experimental aquatic ecosystem composed by four trophic levels. Water and sediment are the two abiotic units from which the other compartments could be contamined. Scenedesmus obliquus represents the primary producer. Daphnia magna, Gammarus pulex and Chironomus sp., the first order consumers; Cyprinius carpio, the second order consumer and Salmo gairdneri, the third order one. Each transfer is described by a mathematical equation, based on a theoretical analysis, which represents concentration evolution of each compartment as a function of time. From the experimental data, we suggest a mathematical model in order to simulate radium contamination of the ecosystem. This model takes into account the following parameters: the contamination mode (chronic or acute pollution), the type of ecosystem concerned by the contamination (pond or river), and the season during which the pollution occurred. Results obtained with the model agree with most of field data on contamination level of fish living in the mining complex environment; particularly, they put the emphasize on the trophic way for the fish radiocontamination [fr

  4. A Cost-Effective Culture System for the In Vitro Assembly, Maturation, and Stimulation of Advanced Multilayered Multiculture Tubular Tissue Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loy, Caroline; Pezzoli, Daniele; Candiani, Gabriele; Mantovani, Diego

    2018-01-01

    The development of tubular engineered tissues is a challenging research area aiming to provide tissue substitutes but also in vitro models to test drugs, medical devices, and even to study physiological and pathological processes. In this work, the design, fabrication, and validation of an original cost-effective tubular multilayered-tissue culture system (TMCS) are reported. By exploiting cellularized collagen gel as scaffold, a simple moulding technique and an endothelialization step on a rotating system, TMCS allowed to easily prepare in 48 h, trilayered arterial wall models with finely organized cellular composition and to mature them for 2 weeks without any need of manipulation. Multilayered constructs incorporating different combinations of vascular cells are compared in terms of cell organization and viscoelastic mechanical properties demonstrating that cells always progressively aligned parallel to the longitudinal direction. Also, fibroblast compacted less the collagen matrix and appeared crucial in term of maturation/deposition of elastic extracellular matrix. Preliminary studies under shear stress stimulation upon connection with a flow bioreactor are successfully conducted without damaging the endothelial monolayer. Altogether, the TMCS herein developed, thanks to its versatility and multiple functionalities, holds great promise for vascular tissue engineering applications, but also for other tubular tissues such as trachea or oesophagus. © 2017 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  5. Using Coupled Simulation Models to Link Pastoral Decision Making and Ecosystem Services

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Randall B. Boone

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Historically, pastoral people were able to more freely use the services their semi-arid and arid ecosystems provide, and they adapted to changes in ways that improved their well-being. More recently, their ability to adapt has been constrained due to changes from within and from outside their communities. To compare possible responses by pastoral communities, we modeled ecosystem services and tied those services to decisions that people make at the household level. We created an agent-based household model called DECUMA, joined that model with the ecosystem model SAVANNA, and applied the linked models to southeastern Kajiado District, Kenya. The structure of the new agent-based model and linkages between the models are described, and then we demonstrate the model results using a scenario that shows changes in Maasai well-being in response to drought. We then explore two additional but related scenarios, quantifying household well-being if access to a grazing reserve is lost and if access is lost but those most affected are compensated. In the second scenario, households in group ranches abutting the grazing reserve that lost access had large declines in livestock populations, less food energy from animal sources, increased livestock sales and grain purchases, and increased need for supplemental foods. Households in more distant areas showed no changes or had increases in livestock populations because their herds had fewer animals with which to compete for forage. When households neighboring the grazing reserve were compensated for the lease of the lands they had used, they prospered. We describe some benefits and limitations of the agent-based approach.

  6. Development of a coupled physical-biological ecosystem model ECOSMO - Part I: Model description and validation for the North Sea

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schrum, Corinna; Alekseeva, I.; St. John, Michael

    2006-01-01

    A 3-D coupled biophysical model ECOSMO (ECOSystem MOdel) has been developed. The biological module of ECOSMO is based on lower trophic level interactions between two phyto- and two zooplankton components. The dynamics of the different phytoplankton components are governed by the availability...... of the macronutrients nitrogen, phosphate and silicate as well as light. Zooplankton production is simulated based on the consumption of the different phytoplankton groups and detritus. The biological module is coupled to a nonlinear 3-D baroclinic model. The physical and biological modules are driven by surface...... showed that the model, based on consideration of limiting processes, is able to reproduce the observed spatial and seasonal variability of the North Sea ecosystem e.g. the spring bloom, summer sub-surface production and the fall bloom. Distinct differences in regional characteristics of diatoms...

  7. Ecosystem Services Modeling as a Tool for Defining Priority Areas for Conservation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriela Teixeira Duarte

    Full Text Available Conservationists often have difficulty obtaining financial and social support for protected areas that do not demonstrate their benefits for society. Therefore, ecosystem services have gained importance in conservation science in the last decade, as these services provide further justification for appropriate management and conservation of natural systems. We used InVEST software and a set of GIS procedures to quantify, spatialize and evaluated the overlap between ecosystem services-carbon stock and sediment retention-and a biodiversity proxy-habitat quality. In addition, we proposed a method that serves as an initial approach of a priority areas selection process. The method considers the synergism between ecosystem services and biodiversity conservation. Our study region is the Iron Quadrangle, an important Brazilian mining province and a conservation priority area located in the interface of two biodiversity hotspots, the Cerrado and Atlantic Forest biomes. The resultant priority area for the maintenance of the highest values of ecosystem services and habitat quality was about 13% of the study area. Among those priority areas, 30% are already within established strictly protected areas, and 12% are in sustainable use protected areas. Following the transparent and highly replicable method we proposed in this study, conservation planners can better determine which areas fulfill multiple goals and can locate the trade-offs in the landscape. We also gave a step towards the improvement of the habitat quality model with a topography parameter. In areas of very rugged topography, we have to consider geomorfometric barriers for anthropogenic impacts and for species movement and we must think beyond the linear distances. Moreover, we used a model that considers the tree mortality caused by edge effects in the estimation of carbon stock. We found low spatial congruence among the modeled services, mostly because of the pattern of sediment retention

  8. Ecosystem Services Modeling as a Tool for Defining Priority Areas for Conservation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duarte, Gabriela Teixeira; Ribeiro, Milton Cezar; Paglia, Adriano Pereira

    2016-01-01

    Conservationists often have difficulty obtaining financial and social support for protected areas that do not demonstrate their benefits for society. Therefore, ecosystem services have gained importance in conservation science in the last decade, as these services provide further justification for appropriate management and conservation of natural systems. We used InVEST software and a set of GIS procedures to quantify, spatialize and evaluated the overlap between ecosystem services-carbon stock and sediment retention-and a biodiversity proxy-habitat quality. In addition, we proposed a method that serves as an initial approach of a priority areas selection process. The method considers the synergism between ecosystem services and biodiversity conservation. Our study region is the Iron Quadrangle, an important Brazilian mining province and a conservation priority area located in the interface of two biodiversity hotspots, the Cerrado and Atlantic Forest biomes. The resultant priority area for the maintenance of the highest values of ecosystem services and habitat quality was about 13% of the study area. Among those priority areas, 30% are already within established strictly protected areas, and 12% are in sustainable use protected areas. Following the transparent and highly replicable method we proposed in this study, conservation planners can better determine which areas fulfill multiple goals and can locate the trade-offs in the landscape. We also gave a step towards the improvement of the habitat quality model with a topography parameter. In areas of very rugged topography, we have to consider geomorfometric barriers for anthropogenic impacts and for species movement and we must think beyond the linear distances. Moreover, we used a model that considers the tree mortality caused by edge effects in the estimation of carbon stock. We found low spatial congruence among the modeled services, mostly because of the pattern of sediment retention distribution.

  9. Linking genes to ecosystem trace gas fluxes in a large-scale model system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meredith, L. K.; Cueva, A.; Volkmann, T. H. M.; Sengupta, A.; Troch, P. A.

    2017-12-01

    Soil microorganisms mediate biogeochemical cycles through biosphere-atmosphere gas exchange with significant impact on atmospheric trace gas composition. Improving process-based understanding of these microbial populations and linking their genomic potential to the ecosystem-scale is a challenge, particularly in soil systems, which are heterogeneous in biodiversity, chemistry, and structure. In oligotrophic systems, such as the Landscape Evolution Observatory (LEO) at Biosphere 2, atmospheric trace gas scavenging may supply critical metabolic needs to microbial communities, thereby promoting tight linkages between microbial genomics and trace gas utilization. This large-scale model system of three initially homogenous and highly instrumented hillslopes facilitates high temporal resolution characterization of subsurface trace gas fluxes at hundreds of sampling points, making LEO an ideal location to study microbe-mediated trace gas fluxes from the gene to ecosystem scales. Specifically, we focus on the metabolism of ubiquitous atmospheric reduced trace gases hydrogen (H2), carbon monoxide (CO), and methane (CH4), which may have wide-reaching impacts on microbial community establishment, survival, and function. Additionally, microbial activity on LEO may facilitate weathering of the basalt matrix, which can be studied with trace gas measurements of carbonyl sulfide (COS/OCS) and carbon dioxide (O-isotopes in CO2), and presents an additional opportunity for gene to ecosystem study. This work will present initial measurements of this suite of trace gases to characterize soil microbial metabolic activity, as well as links between spatial and temporal variability of microbe-mediated trace gas fluxes in LEO and their relation to genomic-based characterization of microbial community structure (phylogenetic amplicons) and genetic potential (metagenomics). Results from the LEO model system will help build understanding of the importance of atmospheric inputs to

  10. The Homeland Security Ecosystem: An Analysis of Hierarchical and Ecosystem Models and Their Influence on Decision Makers

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-12-01

    ALPR Automated License Plate Readers DHS Department of Homeland Security DOJ Department of Justice EOA Ecosystem-Oriented Architectures FEMA...through the use of technology, including the use of automated license plate readers ( ALPR ), ballistics evidence from crime scenes and confiscated...interest, their associates, and the use of ALPR technology to track criminal suspects and their routes of travel. Other recommendations included: the

  11. Modeling Urban Expansion in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Using Demographic–Economic Data through Cellular Automata-Markov Chain and Multi-Layer Perceptron-Markov Chain Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chudech Losiri

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Urban expansion is considered as one of the most important problems in several developing countries. Bangkok Metropolitan Region (BMR is the urbanized and agglomerated area of Bangkok Metropolis (BM and its vicinity, which confronts the expansion problem from the center of the city. Landsat images of 1988, 1993, 1998, 2003, 2008, and 2011 were used to detect the land use and land cover (LULC changes. The demographic and economic data together with corresponding maps were used to determine the driving factors for land conversions. This study applied Cellular Automata-Markov Chain (CA-MC and Multi-Layer Perceptron-Markov Chain (MLP-MC to model LULC and urban expansions. The performance of the CA-MC and MLP-MC yielded more than 90% overall accuracy to predict the LULC, especially the MLP-MC method. Further, the annual population and economic growth rates were considered to produce the land demand for the LULC in 2014 and 2035 using the statistical extrapolation and system dynamics (SD. It was evident that the simulated map in 2014 resulting from the SD yielded the highest accuracy. Therefore, this study applied the SD method to generate the land demand for simulating LULC in 2035. The outcome showed that urban occupied the land around a half of the BMR.

  12. Intercomparison of model simulations of mixed-phase clouds observed during the ARM Mixed-Phase Arctic Cloud Experiment. Part II: Multi-layered cloud

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Morrison, H; McCoy, R B; Klein, S A; Xie, S; Luo, Y; Avramov, A; Chen, M; Cole, J; Falk, M; Foster, M; Genio, A D; Harrington, J; Hoose, C; Khairoutdinov, M; Larson, V; Liu, X; McFarquhar, G; Poellot, M; Shipway, B; Shupe, M; Sud, Y; Turner, D; Veron, D; Walker, G; Wang, Z; Wolf, A; Xu, K; Yang, F; Zhang, G

    2008-02-27

    Results are presented from an intercomparison of single-column and cloud-resolving model simulations of a deep, multi-layered, mixed-phase cloud system observed during the ARM Mixed-Phase Arctic Cloud Experiment. This cloud system was associated with strong surface turbulent sensible and latent heat fluxes as cold air flowed over the open Arctic Ocean, combined with a low pressure system that supplied moisture at mid-level. The simulations, performed by 13 single-column and 4 cloud-resolving models, generally overestimate the liquid water path and strongly underestimate the ice water path, although there is a large spread among the models. This finding is in contrast with results for the single-layer, low-level mixed-phase stratocumulus case in Part I of this study, as well as previous studies of shallow mixed-phase Arctic clouds, that showed an underprediction of liquid water path. The overestimate of liquid water path and underestimate of ice water path occur primarily when deeper mixed-phase clouds extending into the mid-troposphere were observed. These results suggest important differences in the ability of models to simulate Arctic mixed-phase clouds that are deep and multi-layered versus shallow and single-layered. In general, models with a more sophisticated, two-moment treatment of the cloud microphysics produce a somewhat smaller liquid water path that is closer to observations. The cloud-resolving models tend to produce a larger cloud fraction than the single-column models. The liquid water path and especially the cloud fraction have a large impact on the cloud radiative forcing at the surface, which is dominated by the longwave flux for this case.

  13. Modeling mechanisms of vegetation change due to fire in a semi-arid ecosystem

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, J.D.; Gutzwiller, K.J.; Barrow, W.C.; Randall, L.J.; Swint, P.

    2008-01-01

    Vegetation growth and community composition in semi-arid environments is determined by water availability and carbon assimilation mechanisms specific to different plant types. Disturbance also impacts vegetation productivity and composition dependent on area affected, intensity, and frequency factors. In this study, a new spatially explicit ecosystem model is presented for the purpose of simulating vegetation cover type changes associated with fire disturbance in the northern Chihuahuan Desert region. The model is called the Landscape and Fire Simulator (LAFS) and represents physiological activity of six functional plant types incorporating site climate, fire, and seed dispersal routines for individual grid cells. We applied this model for Big Bend National Park, Texas, by assessing the impact of wildfire on the trajectory of vegetation communities over time. The model was initialized and calibrated based on landcover maps derived from Landsat-5 Thematic Mapper data acquired in 1986 and 1999 coupled with plant biomass measurements collected in the field during 2000. Initial vegetation cover change analysis from satellite data showed shrub encroachment during this time period that was captured in the simulated results. A synthetic 50-year climate record was derived from historical meteorological data to assess system response based on initial landcover conditions. This simulation showed that shrublands increased to the detriment of grass and yucca-ocotillo vegetation cover types indicating an ecosystem-level trajectory for shrub encroachment. Our analysis of simulated fires also showed that fires significantly reduced site biomass components including leaf area, stem, and seed biomass in this semi-arid ecosystem. In contrast to other landscape simulation models, this new model incorporates detailed physiological responses of functional plant types that will allow us to simulated the impact of increased atmospheric CO2 occurring with climate change coupled with fire

  14. Risks of ocean acidification in the California Current food web and fisheries: ecosystem model projections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marshall, Kristin N; Kaplan, Isaac C; Hodgson, Emma E; Hermann, Albert; Busch, D Shallin; McElhany, Paul; Essington, Timothy E; Harvey, Chris J; Fulton, Elizabeth A

    2017-04-01

    The benefits and ecosystem services that humans derive from the oceans are threatened by numerous global change stressors, one of which is ocean acidification. Here, we describe the effects of ocean acidification on an upwelling system that already experiences inherently low pH conditions, the California Current. We used an end-to-end ecosystem model (Atlantis), forced by downscaled global climate models and informed by a meta-analysis of the pH sensitivities of local taxa, to investigate the direct and indirect effects of future pH on biomass and fisheries revenues. Our model projects a 0.2-unit drop in pH during the summer upwelling season from 2013 to 2063, which results in wide-ranging magnitudes of effects across guilds and functional groups. The most dramatic direct effects of future pH may be expected on epibenthic invertebrates (crabs, shrimps, benthic grazers, benthic detritivores, bivalves), and strong indirect effects expected on some demersal fish, sharks, and epibenthic invertebrates (Dungeness crab) because they consume species known to be sensitive to changing pH. The model's pelagic community, including marine mammals and seabirds, was much less influenced by future pH. Some functional groups were less affected to changing pH in the model than might be expected from experimental studies in the empirical literature due to high population productivity (e.g., copepods, pteropods). Model results suggest strong effects of reduced pH on nearshore state-managed invertebrate fisheries, but modest effects on the groundfish fishery because individual groundfish species exhibited diverse responses to changing pH. Our results provide a set of projections that generally support and build upon previous findings and set the stage for hypotheses to guide future modeling and experimental analysis on the effects of OA on marine ecosystems and fisheries. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  15. Modeling impacts of climate change on carbon dynamics in a steppe ecosystem in Inner Mongolia, China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kang, Xiaoming; Wang, Jinzhi; Rui, Yichao; Niu, Haishan [Graduate Univ. of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing (China). College of Resources and Environment; Hao, Yanbin; Cui, Xiaoyong; Wang, Yanfen [Graduate Univ. of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing (China). College of Life Sciences; Li, Changsheng [New Hampshire Univ., Durham, NH (United States). Inst. for the Study of Earth, Ocean and Space

    2011-06-15

    Purpose: In this study, a process-oriented biogeochemistry model, denitrification-decomposition (DNDC), was employed and adapted to interpret and integrate the field observations that the tested ecosystem was a weak sink of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) in 2004 but a strong source in 2005 during the growing seasons. Then we applied the model to predict long-term impacts of climate change on carbon (C) dynamics in the semiarid grassland. Materials and methods: To adapt DNDC for the targeted grassland, we modified the default values of several grass parameters such as maximum biomass production, biomass partitions, plant tissue C/N ratio, and accumulative thermal degree days based on local observations. Daily weather data for 2004 and 2005 in conjunction with soil properties and management practices for the location were utilized as inputs to simulate the grass growth and soil C dynamics. The modeled C fluxes were compared with the eddy tower data. Sensitivity tests were conducted with a baseline and twelve alternative climate scenarios of 100 years for the target grassland. Results and discussion: The observed and modeled CO{sub 2} fluxes data were well in agreement (P < 0.0001), both showing that the grassland shifted from a sink to a source of atmospheric CO{sub 2} from a wet year (2004) to a dry year (2005) over growing season. Simulations of 100 years found that, under the fenced conditions, (1) the tested ecosystem would gain C with the baseline climate conditions at a rate of 200 kg C/ha/year; (2) the warmer and drier climate scenario made the worst case having the lowest grass production with 72 kg C/ha/year lost from the soil carbon pool; and (3) the cooler and wetter climate scenario made the best case having the highest biomass production with 790 kg C/ha/year sequestered in the soil during the simulated 100 years. Conclusions: DNDC model could be used for the prediction of C dynamics in this semiarid grassland ecosystem. Since the ecosystem

  16. Trophic mass-balance model of Alaska's Prince William Sound ecosystem, for the post-spill period 1994-1996

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Okey, T.A.; Pauly, D.

    1998-01-01

    The Ecopath modelling approach for the Prince William Sound (PWS) ecosystem was described. The area is the site of the 1989 Exxon Valdez oil spill (EVOS), the largest spill in U.S. history. 36,000 tonnes of crude oil spread throughout the central and southwestern PWS into the Gulf of Alaska and along the Kenai and Alaska Peninsula. The initial effects of the oil spill were catastrophic. The Ecopath modelling approach discussed in this report is aimed at providing a cohesive picture of the PWS ecosystem by constructing a mass-balanced model of food-web interactions and trophic flows using information collected since the EVOS. The model includes all biotic components of the ecosystem and provides a quantitative description of food-web interactions and relationships, as well as energy flows among components. The model can provide an understanding of how ecosystems respond to disturbances, such as oil spills. 216 refs., 74 tabs., 13 figs., 8 appendices

  17. Application of a terrestrial ecosystem model (ORCHIDEE-STICS) in simulating energy and CO2 fluxes in Asian rice croplands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, X.; Piao, S.; Ciais, P.; Vuichard, N.

    2012-12-01

    Process-based terrestrial ecosystem models have shown great potentials in predicting the response of managed ecosystems to environmental changes. However, the simulated water and carbon fluxes over rice ecosystems in tropical Asia are still subject to large uncertainties, partly due to poorly constrained parameters in the models. Here, a terrestrial ecosystem model incorporating a more realistic crop module (ORCHIDEE-STICS) was calibrated against in-situ flux data and observed and remotely sensed leaf area indexes over rice ecosystems in Asia. The key parameters adjusted include maximum photosynthetic carboxylation rate (Vcmax) and electron transport rate (Vjmax), temperature sensitivity of heterotrophic respiration (Q10) and a series of critical thresholds for different crop development stages. Compared with the observations, the calibrated model more realistically simulated the seasonal and year-to-year variation of the observed water and carbon fluxes with reductions in the root mean square difference and better timing in the crop development stages. Sensitivity tests further reveal that management practices like the timing of transplanting and draining could affect the seasonal and inter-annual variation of the net carbon exchange, suggesting that the absence of explicit accounting the change of management practices in the terrestrial ecosystem models may induce large uncertainties in predicting cropland ecosystem response to future climate change.

  18. Description of the East Brazil Large Marine Ecosystem using a trophic model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kátia M.F. Freire

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study was to describe the marine ecosystem off northeastern Brazil. A trophic model was constructed for the 1970s using Ecopath with Ecosim. The impact of most of the forty-one functional groups was modest, probably due to the highly reticulated diet matrix. However, seagrass and macroalgae exerted a strong positive impact on manatee and herbivorous reef fishes, respectively. A high negative impact of omnivorous reef fishes on spiny lobsters and of sharks on swordfish was observed. Spiny lobsters and swordfish had the largest biomass changes for the simulation period (1978-2000; tunas, other large pelagics and sharks showed intermediate rates of biomass decline; and a slight increase in biomass was observed for toothed cetaceans, large carnivorous reef fishes, and dolphinfish. Recycling was an important feature of this