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Sample records for multi-regional markal model

  1. Internalisation of external cost in the power generation sector: Analysis with Global Multi-regional MARKAL model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rafaj, Peter; Kypreos, Socrates

    2007-01-01

    The Global MARKAL-Model (GMM), a multi-regional 'bottom-up' partial equilibrium model of the global energy system with endogenous technological learning, is used to address impacts of internalisation of external costs from power production. This modelling approach imposes additional charges on electricity generation, which reflect the costs of environmental and health damages from local pollutants (SO 2 , NO x ) and climate change, wastes, occupational health, risk of accidents, noise and other burdens. Technologies allowing abatement of pollutants emitted from power plants are rapidly introduced into the energy system, for example, desulphurisation, NO x removal, and CO 2 scrubbers. The modelling results indicate substantial changes in the electricity production system in favour of natural gas combined cycle, nuclear power and renewables induced by internalisation of external costs and also efficiency loss due to the use of scrubbers. Structural changes and fuel switching in the electricity sector result in significant reduction of emissions of both local pollution and CO 2 over the modelled time period. Strong decarbonisation impact of internalising local externalities suggests that ancillary benefits can be expected from policies directly addressing other issues then CO 2 mitigation. Finally, the detailed analysis of the total generation cost of different technologies points out that inclusion of external cost in the price of electricity increases competitiveness of non-fossil generation sources and fossil power plants with emission control

  2. An energy-economic scenario analysis of alternative fuels for personal transport using the Global Multi-regional MARKAL model (GMM)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guel, Timur; Kypreos, Socrates; Turton, Hal; Barreto, Leonardo

    2009-01-01

    This paper deals with the long-term prospects of alternative fuels in global personal transport. It aims at assessing key drivers and key bottlenecks for their deployment, focusing particularly on the role of biofuels and hydrogen in meeting climate policy objectives. The analysis is pursued using the Global Multi-regional MARKAL model (GMM), a perfect foresight ''bottom-up'' model of the global energy system with a detailed representation of alternative fuel chains, linked to the Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse Gas Induced Climate Change (MAGICC). The analysis shows that biofuels are limited by the regional availability of low-cost biomass, but can be important for meeting mild climate policy targets. If policy-makers intend to pursue more stringent climate policy, then hydrogen becomes a competitive option. However, the analysis finds that the use of hydrogen in personal transport is restricted to very stringent climate policy, as only such policy provides enough incentive to build up the required delivery infrastructure. An analysis of costs additionally shows that ''keeping the hydrogen option open'' does not take considerable investments compared to the investment needs in the power sector within the next decades, but allows the use of hydrogen for the pursuit of stringent climate policy in the second half of the century. (author)

  3. Italian energy scenarios: Markal model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gracceva, Francesco

    2005-01-01

    Energy scenarios carried out through formal models comply with scientific criteria such as internal coherence and transparency. Besides, Markal methodology allows a good understanding of the complex nature of the energy system. The business-as-usual scenario carried out through the Markal-Italy model shows that structural changes occurring in end-use sectors will continue to drive up energy consumption, in spite of the slow economic growth and the quite high energy prices [it

  4. A multi-regional MARKAL-MACRO model to study an international market of CO{sub 2} emission permits. A detailed analysis of a burden sharing strategy among the Netherlands, Sweden and Switzerland

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bahn, O.; Barreto, L.; Bueeler, B.; Kypreos, S. [Paul Scherrer Inst. (PSI), Villigen (Switzerland)

    1997-11-01

    The development of a multi-regional MARKAL-MACRO (mMM) model and associated solution techniques have been actively continued during the first year (July 1996 - June 1997) of the IEA/ETSAP/Annex VI. This has been a joint research effort between: - the Systems Analysis Section of the Paul Scherrer Institute (PSI), - the Inst. for Operations Research (IFOR) of the Swiss Federal Inst. of Technology at Zurich, - the Logistics Lab. (Logilab) of the Univ. of Geneva, and - the different ETSAP partners that provide the regional MARKAL-MACRO (MM) models. This report intends to give an update on the development of mMM and associated solution techniques, highlighting the progress made since July 1996. It details also first JI study performed with mMM. The mMM model enables one to study an international co-operation to curb jointly carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) emissions through a market of emission permits, and to evaluate the economic implications of co-ordinating abatement policies on the participating regions. Along with emission permits, the regions may exchange other goods. So far, only an aggregate good in monetary unit has been considered. The mMM model integrates regional MM models into a meta-modelling framework. This integration can be done following two equivalent alternatives: mMM can be formulated either with market equilibrium conditions, or with an aggregated utility function and a global excess constraint. In both alternatives, regional MM models have to be extended by coherent budget and/or trade relationships. A first coding of a mMM model with three countries had been done in GAMS. Work has been done to generalise this coding to consider more traded goods and more countries. To solve mMM, two alternative mathematical methods can be used. The first one considers mMM formulated with market equilibrium conditions, and solves it as a variational inequality problem using a cutting plane algorithm. The second one considers mMM formulated with an aggregated utility

  5. A multi-regional MARKAL-MACRO model to study an international market of CO2 emission permits. A detailed analysis of a burden sharing strategy among the Netherlands, Sweden and Switzerland

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bahn, O.; Barreto, L.; Bueeler, B.; Kypreos, S.

    1997-11-01

    The development of a multi-regional MARKAL-MACRO (mMM) model and associated solution techniques have been actively continued during the first year (July 1996 - June 1997) of the IEA/ETSAP/Annex VI. This has been a joint research effort between: - the Systems Analysis Section of the Paul Scherrer Institute (PSI), - the Inst. for Operations Research (IFOR) of the Swiss Federal Inst. of Technology at Zurich, - the Logistics Lab. (Logilab) of the Univ. of Geneva, and - the different ETSAP partners that provide the regional MARKAL-MACRO (MM) models. This report intends to give an update on the development of mMM and associated solution techniques, highlighting the progress made since July 1996. It details also first JI study performed with mMM. The mMM model enables one to study an international co-operation to curb jointly carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions through a market of emission permits, and to evaluate the economic implications of co-ordinating abatement policies on the participating regions. Along with emission permits, the regions may exchange other goods. So far, only an aggregate good in monetary unit has been considered. The mMM model integrates regional MM models into a meta-modelling framework. This integration can be done following two equivalent alternatives: mMM can be formulated either with market equilibrium conditions, or with an aggregated utility function and a global excess constraint. In both alternatives, regional MM models have to be extended by coherent budget and/or trade relationships. A first coding of a mMM model with three countries had been done in GAMS. Work has been done to generalise this coding to consider more traded goods and more countries. To solve mMM, two alternative mathematical methods can be used. The first one considers mMM formulated with market equilibrium conditions, and solves it as a variational inequality problem using a cutting plane algorithm. The second one considers mMM formulated with an aggregated utility

  6. The MARKAL-MACRO model and the climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kypreos, S.

    1996-07-01

    MARKAL-MACRO and its extensions is a model appropriate to study partial and general equilibrium in the energy markets and the implications of the carbon dioxide mitigation policy. The main advantage of MM is the explicit treatment of energy demand, supply and conversion technologies, including emission control and conservation options, within a general equilibrium framework. The famous gap between top-down and bottom-up models is resolved and the economic implications of environmental and supply policy constraints can be captured either in an aggregated (Macro) or in a sectorial (Micro) level. The multi-regional trade version of the model allows to study questions related to efficient and equitable allocation of cost and benefits associated with the climate change issue. Finally, the stochastic version of the model allows to assess policies related to uncertain and even catastrophic effects and define appropriate hedging strategies. The report is divided in three parts: - the first part gives an overview of the new model structure. It describes its macro economic part and explains its calibration, - the second part refers to the model applications for Switzerland when analyzing the economic implications of curbing CO 2 emissions or policies related to the introduction of a carbon tax, including a hedging strategy, - the last part is organized in form of Appendices and gives a mathematical description and some potential extensions of the model. It describes also a sensitivity analysis done with MARKAL-MACRO in 1992. (author) figs., tabs., refs

  7. Analytical study for Japan's energy system with MARKAL model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koyama, Shigeo; Kashihara, Toshinori; Endo, Eiichi

    1984-01-01

    Taking part in the 1982 collaboration activity of the Energy Technology Systems Analysis Project (ETSAP), which was started in November, 1980 by the International Energy Agency (IEA), the authors have analyzed extensive scenarios, including common scenarios of the Project, using a version of energy system model MARKAL programmed by their group and input data set up with various ideas. Important points to be considered in conducting the analysis and noteworthy results obtained from the analysis of Japan's energy systems are given. (AUTHOR)

  8. Waste management system optimisation for Southern Italy with MARKAL model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Salvia, M.; Cosmi, C. [Istituto di Metodologie Avanzate di Analisi Ambientale, Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, C. da S. Loja, 85050 (PZ) Tito Scalo (Italy); Macchiato, M. [Dipartimento di Scienze Fisiche, Universita Federico II, Via Cintia, 80126 Napoli (Italy); Mangiamele, L. [Dipartimento di Ingegneria e Fisica dell' Ambiente, Universita degli Studi della Basilicata, C. da Macchia Romana, 85100 Potenza (Italy)

    2002-01-01

    The MARKAL models generator was utilised to build up a comprehensive model of the anthropogenic activities system which points out the linkages between productive processes and waste disposal technologies. The aim of such a study is to determine the optimal configuration of the waste management system for the Basilicata region (Southern Italy), in order to support the definition of the regional waste management plan in compliance with the Italian laws. A sensitivity analysis was performed to evaluate the influence of landfilling fees on the choice of waste processing technologies, in order to foster waste management strategies which are environmentally sustainable, economically affordable and highly efficient. The results show the key role of separate collection and mechanical pre-treatments in the achievement of the legislative targets.

  9. A comparison between MARKAL-MACRO and MARKAL

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schepers, E.

    1995-11-01

    Differences between CO 2 -reduction scenarios of the MARKAL-MACRO model and the MARKAL model are studied. Also attention is paid to the rebound effect, i.e. the effect on a price decrease leads to an increase of the energy demand, and energy savings will result in a redistribution of saved income over other goods and services. MARKAL is an energy supply model and MACRO is a macro-economic model. The combination of the two is an example of a hard-linked model between a top-down model (MACRO) and a bottom-up model (MARKAL). 15 figs., 5 tabs., 18 refs., 2 appendices

  10. MARKAL-MACRO: A linked model for energy-economy analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Manne, A.S.; Wene, C.O.

    1992-02-01

    MARKAL-MACRO is an experiment in model linkage for energy and economy analysis. This new tool is intended as an improvement over existing methods for energy strategy assessment. It is designed specifically for estimating the costs and analyzing the technologies proposed for reducing environmental risks such as global climate change or regional air pollution. The greenhouse gas debate illustrates the usefulness of linked energy-economy models. A central issue is the coupling between economic growth, the level of energy demands, and the development of an energy system to supply these demands. The debate is often connected with alternative modeling approaches. The competing philosophies may be labeled ''top-down macroeconomic'' and ''bottom-up engineering'' perspectives. MARKAL is a systems engineering (physical process) analysis built on the concept of a Reference Energy System (RES). MARKAL is solved by means of dynamic linear programming. In most applications, the end use demands are fixed, and an economically efficient solution is obtained by minimizing the present value of energy system's costs throughout the planning horizon. MACRO is a macroeconomic model with an aggregated view of long-term economic growth. The basis input factors of production are capital, labor and individual forms of energy. MACRO is solved by nonlinear optimization

  11. Biomass for energy or materials? A Western European MARKAL MATTER 1.0 model characterization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gielen, D.J.; Gerlagh, T.; Bos, A.J.M.

    1998-12-01

    The structure and input data for the biomass module of the MATTER 1.0 model, a MARKAL energy and materials systems engineering model for Western Europe, is discussed. This model is used for development of energy and materials strategies for greenhouse gas emission reduction. Preliminary biomass results are presented in order to identify key processes and key parameters that deserve further analysis. The results show that the production of biomaterials is an attractive option for the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. Biomaterials can substitute materials which require a lot of energy for production or they can substitute fossil fuel feedstocks. Increased biomaterials production will result in increasing amounts of waste biomass which can be used for energy production. An increase of the use of biomass for the production of materials needs more attention in the forthcoming BRED analysis. 93 refs

  12. Biomass resources for energy in Ohio: The OH-MARKAL modeling framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shakya, Bibhakar

    The latest reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change have indicated that human activities are directly responsible for a significant portion of global warming trends. In response to the growing concerns regarding climate change and efforts to create a sustainable energy future, biomass energy has come to the forefront as a clean and sustainable energy resource. Biomass energy resources are environmentally clean and carbon neutral with net-zero carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, since CO2 is absorbed or sequestered from the atmosphere during the plant growth. Hence, biomass energy mitigates greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions that would otherwise be added to the environment by conventional fossil fuels, such as coal. The use of biomass resources for energy is even more relevant in Ohio, as the power industry is heavily based on coal, providing about 90 percent of the state's total electricity while only 50 percent of electricity comes from coal at the national level. The burning of coal for electricity generation results in substantial GHG emissions and environmental pollution, which are responsible for global warming and acid rain. Ohio is currently one of the top emitters of GHG in the nation. This dissertation research examines the potential use of biomass resources by analyzing key economic, environmental, and policy issues related to the energy needs of Ohio over a long term future (2001-2030). Specifically, the study develops a dynamic linear programming model (OH-MARKAL) to evaluate biomass cofiring as an option in select coal power plants (both existing and new) to generate commercial electricity in Ohio. The OH-MARKAL model is based on the MARKAL (MARKet ALlocation) framework. Using extensive data on the power industry and biomass resources of Ohio, the study has developed the first comprehensive power sector model for Ohio. Hence, the model can serve as an effective tool for Ohio's energy planning, since it evaluates economic and environmental

  13. Technological Learning in Energy Models: Experience and Scenario Analysis with MARKAL and the ERIS Model Prototype

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barreto, L.; Kypreos, S.

    1999-09-01

    Understanding technology dynamics, a fundamental driving factor of the evolution of energy systems, is essential for sound policy formulation and decision making. Technological change is not an autonomous process, but evolves from a number of endogenous interactions within the social system. Technologies evolve and improve only if experience with them is possible. Efforts must be devoted to improve our analytical tools concerning the treatment given to the technological variable, recognising the cumulative and gradual nature of technological change and the important role played by learning processes. This report presents a collection of works developed by the authors concerning the endogenisation of technological change in energy optimisation models, as a contribution to the Energy Technology Dynamics andAdvanced Energy System Modelling Project (TEEM), developed in the framework of the Non Nuclear Energy Programme JOULE III of the European Union (DGXII). Here, learning curves, an empirically observed manifestation of the cumulative technological learning processes, are endogenised in two energy optimisation models. MARKAL, a widely used bottom-up model developed by the ETSAP programme of the IEA and ERIS, a model prototype, developed within the TEEM project for assessing different concepts and approaches. The methodological approach is described and some results and insights derived from the model analyses are presented. The incorporation of learning curves results in significantly different model outcomes than those obtained with traditional approaches. New, innovative technologies, hardly considered by the standard models, are introduced to the solution when endogenous learning is present. Up-front investments in initially expensive, but promising, technologies allow the necessary accumulation of experience to render them cost-effective. When uncertainty in emission reduction commitments is considered, the results point also in the direction of undertaking early

  14. Technological Learning in Energy Models: Experience and Scenario Analysis with MARKAL and the ERIS Model Prototype

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barreto, L.; Kypreos, S.

    1999-09-01

    Understanding technology dynamics, a fundamental driving factor of the evolution of energy systems, is essential for sound policy formulation and decision making. Technological change is not an autonomous process, but evolves from a number of endogenous interactions within the social system. Technologies evolve and improve only if experience with them is possible. Efforts must be devoted to improve our analytical tools concerning the treatment given to the technological variable, recognising the cumulative and gradual nature of technological change and the important role played by learning processes. This report presents a collection of works developed by the authors concerning the endogenisation of technological change in energy optimisation models, as a contribution to the Energy Technology Dynamics and Advanced Energy System Modelling Project (TEEM), developed in the framework of the Non Nuclear Energy Programme JOULE III of the European Union (DGXII). Here, learning curves, an empirically observed manifestation of the cumulative technological learning processes, are endogenised in two energy optimisation models. MARKAL, a widely used bottom-up model developed by the ETSAP programme of the IEA and ERIS, a model prototype, developed within the TEEM project for assessing different concepts and approaches. The methodological approach is described and some results and insights derived from the model analyses are presented. The incorporation of learning curves results in significantly different model outcomes than those obtained with traditional approaches. New, innovative technologies, hardly considered by the standard models, are introduced to the solution when endogenous learning is present. Up-front investments in initially expensive, but promising, technologies allow the necessary accumulation of experience to render them cost-effective. When uncertainty in emission reduction commitments is considered, the results point also in the direction of undertaking early

  15. A scenario analysis of investment options for the Cuban power sector using the MARKAL model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wright, Evelyn L.; Belt, Juan A.B.; Chambers, Adam; Delaquil, Pat; Goldstein, Gary

    2010-01-01

    The Cuban power sector faces a need for extensive investment in new generating capacity, under a large number of uncertainties regarding future conditions, including: rate of demand growth, fluctuations in fuel prices, access to imported fuel, and access to investment capital for construction of new power plants and development of fuel import infrastructure. To identify cost effective investment strategies under these uncertainties, a supply and power sector MARKAL model was assembled, following an extensive review of available data on the Cuban power system and resource potentials. Two scenarios were assessed, a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario assuming continued moderate electricity load growth and domestic fuel production growth, and a high growth (HI) scenario assuming rapid electricity demand growth, rapid increase in domestic fuel production, and a transition to market pricing of electricity. Within these two scenarios sets, sensitivity analyses were conducted on a number of variables. The implications of least-cost investment strategies for new capacity builds, investment spending requirements, electricity prices, fuel expenditures, and carbon dioxide emissions for each scenario were assessed. Natural gas was found to be the cost effective fuel for new generation across both scenarios and most sensitivity cases, suggesting that access to natural gas, through increased domestic production and LNG import, is a clear priority for further analysis in the Cuban context.

  16. A scenario analysis of investment options for the Cuban power sector using the MARKAL model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wright, Evelyn L.; Chambers, Adam; Delaquil, Pat; Goldstein, Gary [International Resources Group, 1211 Connecticut Avenue, NW, Suite 700, Washington, DC 20036 (United States); Belt, Juan A.B. [US Agency for International Development, 1300 Pennsylvania Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20523-3800 (United States)

    2010-07-15

    The Cuban power sector faces a need for extensive investment in new generating capacity, under a large number of uncertainties regarding future conditions, including: rate of demand growth, fluctuations in fuel prices, access to imported fuel, and access to investment capital for construction of new power plants and development of fuel import infrastructure. To identify cost effective investment strategies under these uncertainties, a supply and power sector MARKAL model was assembled, following an extensive review of available data on the Cuban power system and resource potentials. Two scenarios were assessed, a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario assuming continued moderate electricity load growth and domestic fuel production growth, and a high growth (HI) scenario assuming rapid electricity demand growth, rapid increase in domestic fuel production, and a transition to market pricing of electricity. Within these two scenarios sets, sensitivity analyses were conducted on a number of variables. The implications of least-cost investment strategies for new capacity builds, investment spending requirements, electricity prices, fuel expenditures, and carbon dioxide emissions for each scenario were assessed. Natural gas was found to be the cost effective fuel for new generation across both scenarios and most sensitivity cases, suggesting that access to natural gas, through increased domestic production and LNG import, is a clear priority for further analysis in the Cuban context. (author)

  17. Market penetration analysis of fuel cell vehicles in Japan by using the energy system model MARKAL

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Endo, Eiichi

    2007-01-01

    The objective of the present work is to validate the hydrogen energy roadmap of Japan by analyzing the market penetration of fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) and the effects of a carbon tax using an energy system model of Japan based on MARKAL. The results of the analysis show that a hydrogen FCV would not be cost competitive until 2050 without a more severe carbon tax than the government's planned 2400 JPY/t-C carbon tax. However, as the carbon tax rate increases, instead of conventional vehicles including the gasoline hybrid electric vehicle, hydrogen FCVs gain market penetration earlier and more. By assuming a more severe carbon tax rate, such as 10 000 JPY/t-C, the market share of hydrogen FCVs approaches the governmental goal. This suggests that cheaper vehicle cost and hydrogen cost than those targeted in the roadmap should be attained or subsidies to hydrogen FCV and hydrogen refueling station will be necessary for achieving the goal of earlier market penetration. (author)

  18. EPAUS9R - An Energy Systems Database for use with the Market Allocation (MARKAL) Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA’s MARKAL energy system databases estimate future-year technology dispersals and associated emissions. These databases are valuable tools for exploring a variety of future scenarios for the U.S. energy-production systems that can impact climate change c

  19. The costs of mitigating carbon emissions in China: findings from China MARKAL-MACRO modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen Wenying

    2005-01-01

    In this paper MARKAL-MACRO, an integrated energy-environment-economy model, is used to generate China's reference scenario for future energy development and carbon emission through the year 2050. The results show that with great efforts on structure adjustment, energy efficiency improvement and energy substitution, China's primary energy consumption is expected to be 4818 Mtce and carbon emission 2394 MtC by 2050 with annual decrease rate of 3% for the carbon intensity per GDP during the period 2000-2050. On the basis of this reference scenario, China's marginal abatement cost curves of carbon for the year 2010, 2020 and 2030 are derived from the model, and the impacts of carbon emission abatement on GDP are also simulated. The results are compared with those from other sources. The research shows that the marginal abatement costs vary from 12US$/tC to 216US$/tC and the rates of GDP losses relative to reference range from 0.1% to 2.54% for the reduction rates between 5% and 45%. Both the marginal abatement costs and the rates of GDP losses further enlarge on condition that the maximum capacity of nuclear power is constrained to 240 GW or 160 GW by 2050. The paper concludes that China's costs of carbon abatement is rather high in case of carbon emissions are further cut beyond the reference scenario, and China's carbon abatement room is limited due to her coal-dominant energy resource characteristic. As economic development still remains the priority and per capita income as well as per capita carbon emission are far below the world average, it will be more realistic for China to make continuous contributions to combating global climate change by implementing sustainable development strategy domestically and playing an active role in the international carbon mitigation cooperation mechanisms rather than accepting a carbon emission ceiling

  20. An analysis of energy strategies for CO2 emission reduction in China. Case studies by MARKAL model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Guangya

    1994-12-01

    The China's energy system has been analyzed by using the MARKAL model in this study and the time period is from the year 1990 to 2050. The MARKAL model is applied here to evaluate the cost effective energy strategies for CO 2 emission reduction in China. Firstly the Reference Energy System (RES) of China and its database were established, and the useful energy demand was projected on the basis of China's economic target and demographic forecasting. Four scenarios, BASE1-BASE4 were defined with different assumptions of crude oil and natural uranium availability. Analytical results show that without CO 2 emission constrains coal consumption will continue to hold a dominant position in primary energy supply, and CO 2 emissions in 2050 will be 9.55 BtCO 2 and 10.28 BtCO 2 with different natural uranium availability. Under the CO 2 emission constraints, nuclear and renewable energy will play important roles in CO 2 emission reduction, and feasible maximum CO 2 emission reduction estimated by this study is 3.16 BtCO 2 in 2050. The cumulative CO 2 emission from 1990 to 2050 will be 418.25 BtCO 2 and 429.16 BtCO 2 with different natural uranium availability. Total feasible maximum CO 2 emission reduction from 1990 to 2050 is 95.97 BtCO 2 . (author)

  1. The role of abatement costs in GHG permit allocations : a global reduction scenario with the World-MARKAL model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vaillancourt, K.; Kanudia, A.

    2004-01-01

    The World-MARKAL model was used to examine a permit trading system to stabilize greenhouse gas emissions. The model considered the participation of all countries, including developing countries. Allocation schemes aimed at fair distribution of net abatement costs among world regions were proposed. The net abatement costs for each region are good indicators of where more abatement measures are needed. Equity issues relative to permit allocations and burden sharing were also presented along with the allocation methodology. The gross abatement costs before permit trading were calculated for each region. The main advantages and disadvantages of this approach were listed. It was concluded that permit allocation schemes based on cost distribution make it possible to obtain solutions with equalized net costs per gross domestic product for all regions. 30 refs., 6 tabs., 3 figs

  2. MARKAL-QUEBEC dictionary and data base

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Haurie, A

    1985-07-01

    This two-part volume contains the data base of the MARKAL-QUEBEC energy modeling program. The first part, which constitutes the MARKAL dictionary, contains the list of all classes and their members. The second part contains the complete data set, presented as input tables to meet the requirements of the model. The tables are regrouped in sections in accordance with the class definition: in this way, one can find successively the tables SRC, CON, PRC, DMD, and ADRATIO (one table TCH is associated with each of the first four classes). At the beginning of each section, a brief description of the input data is given.

  3. How can accelerated development of bioenergy contribute to the future UK energy mix? Insights from a MARKAL modelling exercise

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anandarajah Gabrial

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background This work explores the potential contribution of bioenergy technologies to 60% and 80% carbon reductions in the UK energy system by 2050, by outlining the potential for accelerated technological development of bioenergy chains. The investigation was based on insights from MARKAL modelling, detailed literature reviews and expert consultations. Due to the number and complexity of bioenergy pathways and technologies in the model, three chains and two underpinning technologies were selected for detailed investigation: (1 lignocellulosic hydrolysis for the production of bioethanol, (2 gasification technologies for heat and power, (3 fast pyrolysis of biomass for bio-oil production, (4 biotechnological advances for second generation bioenergy crops, and (5 the development of agro-machinery for growing and harvesting bioenergy crops. Detailed literature searches and expert consultations (looking inter alia at research and development needs and economic projections led to the development of an 'accelerated' dataset of modelling parameters for each of the selected bioenergy pathways, which were included in five different scenario runs with UK-MARKAL (MED. The results of the 'accelerated runs' were compared with a low-carbon (LC-Core scenario, which assesses the cheapest way to decarbonise the energy sector. Results Bioenergy was deployed in larger quantities in the bioenergy accelerated technological development scenario compared with the LC-Core scenario. In the electricity sector, solid biomass was highly utilised for energy crop gasification, displacing some deployment of wind power, and nuclear and marine to a lesser extent. Solid biomass was also deployed for heat in the residential sector from 2040 in much higher quantities in the bioenergy accelerated technological development scenario compared with LC-Core. Although lignocellulosic ethanol increased, overall ethanol decreased in the transport sector in the bioenergy

  4. A Multi-Region Model of Economic Growth with Human Capital and Negative Externalities in Innovation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Batabyal, A.; Nijkamp, P.

    2013-01-01

    We use a multi-region model and provide the first theoretical analysis of the effects of human capital use and a particular kind of innovative activity on economic growth. In each of the N heterogeneous regions in our model, consumers have constant relative risk aversion preferences, there are

  5. Exploring some Australian energy alternatives using MARKAL

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Musgrove, A.R.D.; Stocks, K.J.; Essam, P.; Le, D.; Hoetzl, J.V.

    1983-01-01

    MARKAL is a linear programming model for the optimisation of the technologies associated with energy supply and demand within the complete energy system of a country as it evolves over a given time period. It was developed in the course of a project sponsored by the International Energy Agency, which was carried out at two main centres: Kernforschungsanlage, Juelich, FRG, and Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, New York, USA, Australia's participation in the Project has enabled the latest version of MARKAL to be installed on the computer at the Lucas Heights Research Laboratories together with the necessary supporting software programs.

  6. Enhancements of Endogenous Technology Learning in the Western European MARKAL model. Contributions to the EU SAPIENT project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Feber, M.A.P.C.; Schaeffer, G.J.; Seebregts, A.J.; Smekens, K.E.L.

    2003-04-01

    The primary topic of the SAPIENT project and its predecessor TEEM has been the issue of incorporating technology learning endogenously in energy models and trying to determine the impact of public R and D on this learning process. ECN has incorporated the learning mechanism into the MARKAL model using an extended database for the Western Europe energy system. By using advanced modelling techniques (Mixed Integer Programming) and the concepts of key components and technology clusters more than 60 technologies in the power sector have been endowed with learning characteristics. By this approach solving times could be kept within a reasonable length, i.e. less than 20 minutes per run. An important insight gained from model runs with many learning technologies, including conventional technologies, is that new technologies aiming to 'beat' conventional ones are aiming at a 'moving target'. Also conventional technologies can learn, and this aspect makes it much more difficult for new sustainable technologies to penetrate the market in the model. By using a Monte Carlo approach uncertainties in important learning parameters could be analysed. It appeared for instance that the main factor that determines the uncertainty on floor costs for photovoltaic (PV) energy production is the uncertainty in the PV progress ratio. One of the main targets of the SAPIENT project was to find ways to model the effect of R and D on technology learning. ECN has explored an approach to capture this effect by assuming a relationship between the R and D-intensity of a technology and its progress ratio. Following this approach it was found that uncertainties in the overall progress ratio are often higher than the effect additional R and D can have on a certain technology. Also, model outcomes depended rather on the carbon prices used in the scenarios than on the enhancement of learning by R and D. This suggests that a stimulus for sustainable technologies cannot be reached by R and D

  7. Global transportation scenarios in the multi-regional EFDA-TIMES energy model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Muehlich, P.; Hamacher, T.

    2009-01-01

    The aim of this study is to assess the potential impact of the transportation sector on the role of fusion power in the energy system of the 21st century. Key indicators in this context are global passenger and freight transportation activities, consumption levels of fuels used for transportation purposes, the electricity generation mix and greenhouse gas emissions. These quantities are calculated by means of the global multi-regional EFDA-TIMES energy system model. For the present study a new transportation module has been linked to the EFDA-TIMES framework in order to arrive at a consistent projection of future transportation demands. Results are discussed implying various global energy scenarios including assumed crossovers of road transportation activities towards hydrogen or electricity infrastructures and atmospheric CO 2 concentration stabilization levels at 550 ppm and 450 ppm. Our results show that the penetration of fusion power plants is only slightly sensitive to transportation fuel choices but depends strongly on assumed climate policies. In the most stringent case considered here the contribution of electricity produced by fusion power plants can become as large as about 50% at the end of the 21st century. This statement, however, is still of preliminary nature as the EFDA-TIMES project has not yet reached a final status.

  8. A new epidemic modeling approach: Multi-regions discrete-time model with travel-blocking vicinity optimal control strategy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zakary, Omar; Rachik, Mostafa; Elmouki, Ilias

    2017-08-01

    First, we devise in this paper, a multi-regions discrete-time model which describes the spatial-temporal spread of an epidemic which starts from one region and enters to regions which are connected with their neighbors by any kind of anthropological movement. We suppose homogeneous Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) populations, and we consider in our simulations, a grid of colored cells, which represents the whole domain affected by the epidemic while each cell can represent a sub-domain or region. Second, in order to minimize the number of infected individuals in one region, we propose an optimal control approach based on a travel-blocking vicinity strategy which aims to control only one cell by restricting movements of infected people coming from all neighboring cells. Thus, we show the influence of the optimal control approach on the controlled cell. We should also note that the cellular modeling approach we propose here, can also describes infection dynamics of regions which are not necessarily attached one to an other, even if no empty space can be viewed between cells. The theoretical method we follow for the characterization of the travel-locking optimal controls, is based on a discrete version of Pontryagin's maximum principle while the numerical approach applied to the multi-points boundary value problems we obtain here, is based on discrete progressive-regressive iterative schemes. We illustrate our modeling and control approaches by giving an example of 100 regions.

  9. Analysis of Methane Mitigation Options using the MARKAL Model for the US: Calibration Data for Methane Emissions

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — This dataset contains the output for modeling runs that were performed to investigate the effectiveness of various technologies and lay the groundwork for the...

  10. Finding a pareto-optimal solution for multi-region models subject to capital trade and spillover externalities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Leimbach, Marian [Potsdam-Institut fuer Klimafolgenforschung e.V., Potsdam (Germany); Eisenack, Klaus [Oldenburg Univ. (Germany). Dept. of Economics and Statistics

    2008-11-15

    In this paper we present an algorithm that deals with trade interactions within a multi-region model. In contrast to traditional approaches this algorithm is able to handle spillover externalities. Technological spillovers are expected to foster the diffusion of new technologies, which helps to lower the cost of climate change mitigation. We focus on technological spillovers which are due to capital trade. The algorithm of finding a pareto-optimal solution in an intertemporal framework is embedded in a decomposed optimization process. The paper analyzes convergence and equilibrium properties of this algorithm. In the final part of the paper, we apply the algorithm to investigate possible impacts of technological spillovers. While benefits of technological spillovers are significant for the capital-importing region, benefits for the capital-exporting region depend on the type of regional disparities and the resulting specialization and terms-of-trade effects. (orig.)

  11. Innovation, Decentralization and Planning in a Multi-Region Model of Schumpeterian Economic Growth

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Batabyal, A.; Nijkamp, P.

    2014-01-01

    We study innovation and the resulting Schumpeterian economic growth that this innovation gives rise to in a model with N heterogeneous regions. For each region i where i = 1,…,N, our analysis leads to six findings. First, we define the balanced growth path (BGP) allocations and the equilibrium of

  12. Uncertainty in the learning rates of energy technologies. An experiment in a global multi-regional energy system model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rout, Ullash K.; Blesl, Markus; Fahl, Ulrich; Remme, Uwe; Voss, Alfred

    2009-01-01

    The diffusion of promising energy technologies in the market depends on their future energy production-cost development. When analyzing these technologies in an integrated assessment model using endogenous technological learning, the uncertainty in the assumed learning rates (LRs) plays a crucial role in the production-cost development and model outcomes. This study examines the uncertainty in LRs of some energy technologies under endogenous global learning implementation and presents a floor-cost modeling procedure to systematically regulate the uncertainty in LRs of energy technologies. The article narrates the difficulties of data assimilation, as compatible with mixed integer programming segmentations, and comprehensively presents the causes of uncertainty in LRs. This work is executed using a multi-regional and long-horizon energy system model based on 'TIMES' framework. All regions receive an economic advantage to learn in a common domain, and resource-ample regions obtain a marginal advantage for better exploitation of the learning technologies, due to a lower supply-side fuel-cost development. The lowest learning investment associated with the maximum LR mobilizes more deployment of the learning technologies. The uncertainty in LRs has an impact on the diffusion of energy technologies tested, and therefore this study scrutinizes the role of policy support for some of the technologies investigated. (author)

  13. A multi-period, multi-regional generation expansion planning model incorporating unit commitment constraints

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koltsaklis, Nikolaos E.; Georgiadis, Michael C.

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • A short-term structured investment planning model has been developed. • Unit commitment problem is incorporated into the long-term planning horizon. • Inherent intermittency of renewables is modelled in a comprehensive way. • The impact of CO_2 emission pricing in long-term investment decisions is quantified. • The evolution of system’s marginal price is evaluated for all the planning horizon. - Abstract: This work presents a generic mixed integer linear programming (MILP) model that integrates the unit commitment problem (UCP), i.e., daily energy planning with the long-term generation expansion planning (GEP) framework. Typical daily constraints at an hourly level such as start-up and shut-down related decisions (start-up type, minimum up and down time, synchronization, soak and desynchronization time constraints), ramping limits, system reserve requirements are combined with representative yearly constraints such as power capacity additions, power generation bounds of each unit, peak reserve requirements, and energy policy issues (renewables penetration limits, CO_2 emissions cap and pricing). For modelling purposes, a representative day (24 h) of each month over a number of years has been employed in order to determine the optimal capacity additions, electricity market clearing prices, and daily operational planning of the studied power system. The model has been tested on an illustrative case study of the Greek power system. Our approach aims to provide useful insight into strategic and challenging decisions to be determined by investors and/or policy makers at a national and/or regional level by providing the optimal energy roadmap under real operating and design constraints.

  14. Innovation, Decentralization, and Planning in a Multi-Region Model of Schumpeterian Economic Growth

    OpenAIRE

    Batabyal, Amit; Nijkamp, Peter

    2014-01-01

    We study innovation and the resulting Schumpeterian economic growth that this innovation gives rise to in a model with N heterogeneous regions. For each region i where i=1,...,N, our analysis leads to five findings. First, we define the balanced growth path (BGP) allocations and the equilibrium of interest. Second, we stipulate the form of the innovation possibilities frontier that is consistent with balanced economic growth. Third, we derive the growth rate of the ith region in the decentral...

  15. A fuzzy multi-regional input–output optimization model for biomass production and trade under resource and footprint constraints

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tan, Raymond R.; Aviso, Kathleen B.; Barilea, Ivan U.; Culaba, Alvin B.; Cruz, Jose B.

    2012-01-01

    Interest in bioenergy in recent years has been stimulated by both energy security and climate change concerns. Fuels derived from agricultural crops offer the promise of reducing energy dependence for countries that have traditionally been dependent on imported energy. Nevertheless, it is evident that the potential for biomass production is heavily dependent on the availability of land and water resources. Furthermore, capacity expansion through land conversion is now known to incur a significant carbon debt that may offset any benefits in greenhouse gas reductions arising from the biofuel life cycle. Because of such constraints, there is increasing use of non-local biomass through regional trading. The main challenge in the analysis of such arrangements is that individual geographic regions have their own respective goals. This work presents a multi-region, fuzzy input–output optimization model that reflects production and consumption of bioenergy under land, water and carbon footprint constraints. To offset any local production deficits or surpluses, the model allows for trade to occur among different regions within a defined system; furthermore, importation of additional biofuel from external sources is also allowed. Two illustrative case studies are given to demonstrate the key features of the model.

  16. Study of alternatives for improving air quality in the town of Itagui, the result of an examination under the scheme of analysis Environment Energy Economy with the MARKAL model and evaluation of goals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Builes J, Luis A; Franco M, Cristina; Rave Claudia C

    2008-01-01

    For the integrated analysis and assessment of the air quality improvement guidelines in the Aburra Valley region and its municipality Itagui, it is used a multi-period optimization model Markal for an Energy-Environment-Economy scenario analysis on industry and transport sector and, a Targets evaluation methodology for policy assessment on air quality, environmental noise and morbidity. The methodological approach offers the possibility to integrate different variables and decisions to analyze this very complex problem, review different technological scenarios and to analyze their relationships with land use policies among others. The results provide a more integrated panorama of the air quality problematic to policy design and assessment including externalises indicators. The proposed methodology is replicable in other municipalities of the region.

  17. An integrated stochastic multi-regional long-term energy planning model incorporating autonomous power systems and demand response

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koltsaklis, Nikolaos E.; Liu, Pei; Georgiadis, Michael C.

    2015-01-01

    The power sector faces a rapid transformation worldwide from a dominant fossil-fueled towards a low carbon electricity generation mix. Renewable energy technologies (RES) are steadily becoming a greater part of the global energy mix, in particular in regions that have put in place policies and measures to promote their utilization. This paper presents an optimization-based approach to address the generation expansion planning (GEP) problem of a large-scale, central power system in a highly uncertain and volatile electricity industry environment. A multi-regional, multi-period linear mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) model is presented, combining optimization techniques with a Monte Carlo (MCA) method and demand response concepts. The optimization goal concerns the minimization of the total discounted cost by determining optimal power capacity additions per time interval and region, and the power generation mix per technology and time period. The model is evaluated on the Greek power system (GPS), taking also into consideration the scheduled interconnection of the mainland power system with those of selected autonomous islands (Cyclades and Crete), and aims at providing full insight into the composition of the long-term energy roadmap at a national level. - Highlights: • A spatial, multi-period, long-term generation expansion planning model is presented. • A Monte-Carlo method along with a demand response mechanism are incorporated. • Autonomous power systems interconnection is considered. • Electricity and CO 2 emission trade are taken into account. • Lignite, natural gas and wind power comprise the dominant power technologies

  18. Quantitative assessment of selected policy instruments using the Western European MARKAL model. Phase III EU SAVE White and Green Project: Comparison of market-based instruments to promote energy efficiency

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mundaca, Luis; Santi, Federico

    2004-01-01

    This report summarises the modelling exercise carried out in order to assess the implications of selected policy instruments using the energy model of Western Europe (WEU) generated by the Market Allocation (MARKAL) modelling tool. The chosen methodology was the usage of the WEU MARKAL model for analysing the response of this energy system to the following policy instruments: White Certificates, Green Certificates, and Carbon Dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions trading. Results show that the order of magnitude of the effects of the analysed instruments depends on the target/cap that is applied. For the case of White Certificates, it can be observed that up to certain level (i.e., around 15% of cumulated energy savings by 2020 compared to the base case) energy savings are obtained at negative costs. Major savings occur in the residential sector for all the applied targets. Results for CO 2 emissions appear to be robust for the years 2015 and 2020, but it should also be observed that these emission trends are less robust for the years 2005 and 2010. Energy efficiency improvements for the WEU economy that are policy-induced around 6%, 9% and 15% for the low, medium and high target scenarios respectively. For the case of Green Certificates, results show that the sustained penetration of renewable energy sources is dominated by wind and biomass. By examining the autonomous fossil fuel intensity of the WEU economy, energy efficiency improvements that are policy induced account for around 1%, 4% and 6% for each scenario respectively. All the targets are technically possible. For the case of CO 2 emissions trading, due to the fact that these results address just the power sector, they must be seen as complementary of other modelling works that deal with a wider industrial coverage. In our case, the more ambitious the cap is, the lower the share of fossil fuels in electricity production becomes. The different trends for the electricity production seem to be less robust. Compared to

  19. MARKAL SCENARIO ANALYSES OF TECHNOLOGY OPTIONS FOR THE ELECTRIC SECTOR: THE IMPACT ON AIR QUALITY

    Science.gov (United States)

    This report provides a general overview of EPA’s national MARKAL database and energy systems model and compares various scenarios to a business as usual baseline scenario. Under baseline assumptions, total electricity use increases 1.3% annually until 2030. Annual growth in ele...

  20. Multi-regional input–output model and ecological network analysis for regional embodied energy accounting in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Yan; Zheng, Hongmei; Yang, Zhifeng; Su, Meirong; Liu, Gengyuan; Li, Yanxian

    2015-01-01

    Chinese regions frequently exchange materials, but regional differences in economic development create unbalanced flows of these resources. In this study, we examined energy by assessing embodied energy consumption to describe the energy-flow structure in China's seven regions. Based on multi-regional monetary input–output tables and energy statistical yearbooks for Chinese provinces in 2002 and 2007, we accounted for both direct and indirect energy consumption, respectively, and the integral input and output of the provinces. Most integral inputs of energy flowed from north to south or from east to west, whereas integral output flows were mainly from northeast to southwest. This differed from the direct flows, which were predominantly from north to south and west to east. This demonstrates the importance of calculating both direct and indirect energy flows. Analysis of the distance and direction traveled by the energy consumption centers of gravity showed that the centers for embodied energy consumption and inputs moved southeast because of the movements of the centers of the Eastern region. However, the center for outputs moved northeast because the movement of the Central region. These analyses provide a basis for identifying how regional economic development policies influence the embodied energy consumption and its flows among regions. - Highlights: • We integrated multi-regional input–output analysis with ecological network analysis. • We accounted for both direct and indirect energy consumption. • The centers of gravity for embodied energy flows moved southeast from 2002 to 2007. • The results support planning of energy consumption and energy flows among regions.

  1. Incorporation of aqueous reaction kinetics and biodegradation intoTOUGHREACT: Application of a multi-region model to hydrobiogeoChemicaltransport of denitrification and sulfate reduction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xu, Tianfu

    2006-07-13

    The need to consider aqueous and sorption kinetics andmicrobiological processes arises in many subsurface problems. Ageneral-rate expression has been implemented into the TOUGHREACTsimulator, which considers multiple mechanisms (pathways) and includesmultiple product, Monod, and inhibition terms. This paper presents aformulation for incorporating kinetic rates among primary species intomass-balance equations. The space discretization used is based on aflexible integral finite difference approach that uses irregular griddingto model bio-geologic structures. A general multi-region model forhydrological transport interacted with microbiological and geochemicalprocesses is proposed. A 1-D reactive transport problem with kineticbiodegradation and sorption was used to test the enhanced simulator,which involves the processes that occur when a pulse of water containingNTA (nitrylotriacetate) and cobalt is injected into a column. The currentsimulation results agree very well with those obtained with othersimulators. The applicability of this general multi-region model wasvalidated by results from a published column experiment ofdenitrification and sulfate reduction. The matches with measured nitrateand sulfate concentrations were adjusted with the interficial areabetween mobile hydrological and immobile biological regions. Resultssuggest that TOUGHREACT can not only be a useful interpretative tool forbiogeochemical experiments, but also can produce insight into processesand parameters of microscopic diffusion and their interplay withbiogeochemical reactions. The geometric- and process-based multi-regionmodel may provide a framework for understanding field-scalehydrobiogeochemical heterogeneities and upscaling parameters.

  2. Impact of Germany's energy transition on the Nordic power market – A market-based multi-region energy system model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zakeri, Behnam; Virasjoki, Vilma; Syri, Sanna; Connolly, David; Mathiesen, Brian V.; Welsch, Manuel

    2016-01-01

    The EU energy policy aims at creating a single European electricity market through market couplings and grid expansions. To analyse the implications of such power market couplings, we propose a market-based multi-region energy system model. The model simulates a multi-region power market (by applying market optimization and network theory), with detailed representation of each region as an energy system (by simulation of both heat and power sectors). We examine the impact of further integration of variable renewable energy (VRE) in Germany on the Nordic power market. The results indicate that the average electricity price slightly grows in the Nordic power market after Germany's Energy Transition (Energiewende). Hence, the economic surplus of Nordic consumers diminishes while Nordic producers improve their gain under new market conditions. Considering the gird congestion income, the overall system-level benefits (social welfare) will improve in the Nordic region after Germany's Energiewende. However, this gain is not equally distributed among different Nordic countries and across different stakeholders. Furthermore, the Energiewende slightly increases carbon emissions from power and district heating (DH) sectors, and reduces the flexibility in integration of VRE in some Nordic countries like Denmark. The direct interconnection of Norway and Germany through NordLink will contribute to the flexibility in wind integration in other Nordic countries, such as Denmark and Finland. - Highlights: • By an integrated hourly analysis, we model the energy systems of several networked countries and their common electricity market. • The proposed model can inform energy policy on implications of renewable energy integration in an international power market. • Among Nordic countries, Norway gains the highest economic benefits from Germany's energy transition. • Germany's energy transition constrains the flexibility of the Nordic countries in wind integration. • Nord

  3. Improved simulation of tropospheric ozone by a global-multi-regional two-way coupling model system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Yan

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Small-scale nonlinear chemical and physical processes over pollution source regions affect the tropospheric ozone (O3, but these processes are not captured by current global chemical transport models (CTMs and chemistry–climate models that are limited by coarse horizontal resolutions (100–500 km, typically 200 km. These models tend to contain large (and mostly positive tropospheric O3 biases in the Northern Hemisphere. Here we use the recently built two-way coupling system of the GEOS-Chem CTM to simulate the regional and global tropospheric O3 in 2009. The system couples the global model (at 2.5° long.  ×  2° lat. and its three nested models (at 0.667° long.  ×  0.5° lat. covering Asia, North America and Europe, respectively. Specifically, the nested models take lateral boundary conditions (LBCs from the global model, better capture small-scale processes and feed back to modify the global model simulation within the nested domains, with a subsequent effect on their LBCs. Compared to the global model alone, the two-way coupled system better simulates the tropospheric O3 both within and outside the nested domains, as found by evaluation against a suite of ground (1420 sites from the World Data Centre for Greenhouse Gases (WDCGG, the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory Global Monitoring Division (GMD, the Chemical Coordination Centre of European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme (EMEP, and the United States Environmental Protection Agency Air Quality System (AQS, aircraft (the High-performance Instrumented Airborne Platform for Environmental Research (HIAPER Pole-to-Pole Observations (HIPPO and Measurement of Ozone and Water Vapor by Airbus In- Service Aircraft (MOZAIC and satellite measurements (two Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI products. The two-way coupled simulation enhances the correlation in day-to-day variation of afternoon mean surface O3

  4. Modelling regional trade of CO{sub 2} certificates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bueeler, B.; Bahn, O.; Kypreos, S. [Paul Scherrer Inst. (PSI), Villigen (Switzerland)

    1997-06-01

    Many countries have developed energy models (such as MARKAL-MACRO---MM) to assess their energy policies, in particular concerning the curbing of their carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) emissions. To integrate national MM models, we propose a multi-regional MARKAL-MACRO (3M) model. It enables one to study an international co-operation to curb jointly CO{sub 2} emissions through a market of emission permits. Furthermore, from a decision support perspective, the 3M model can be used to integrate aspects of ecological sustainability (in relation to global climate change issue), economic welfare, efficient resource use and technological innovation. To solve 3M, we follow two alternative mathematical methods. (author) 4 refs.

  5. The impact of domestic trade on China's regional energy uses: A multi-regional input–output modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Bo; Chen, Z.M.; Xia, X.H.; Xu, X.Y.; Chen, Y.B.

    2013-01-01

    To systematically reveal how domestic trade impacts on China's regional energy uses, an interprovincial input–output modeling is carried out to address demand-derived energy requirements for the regional economies in 2007 based on the recently available data. Both the energy uses embodied in final demand and interregional trade are investigated from the regional and sectoral insights. Significant net transfers of embodied energy flows are identified from the central and western areas to the eastern area via interregional trade. Shanxi is the largest energy producer and interregional embodied energy deficit receiver, in contrast to Guangdong as the largest energy user and surplus receiver. By considering the impacts of interregional trade, the energy uses of most eastern regions increase remarkably. For instance, Shanghai, Hainan, Zhejiang, Beijing, Jiangsu and Guangdong have their embodied energy requirements 87.49, 19.97, 13.64, 12.60, 6.46 and 6.38 times of their direct energy inputs, respectively. In contrast, the embodied energy uses of some central and western regions such as Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, Xinjiang, Shaanxi and Guizhou decrease largely. The results help understand the hidden network linkages of interregional embodied energy flows and provide critical insight to amend China's current end-reduction-oriented energy policies by addressing the problem of regional responsibility transfer. - Highlights: • Demand-derived energy requirements for China's regional economies are addressed. • Significant interregional transfers of embodied energy flows are identified. • Energy surpluses are obtained by 19 regions and deficits by the other 11 regions. • The eastern regions should take more responsibility for reducing China's energy uses

  6. CO2 emissions in the global supply chains of services: An analysis based on a multi-regional input–output model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Wencheng; Peng, Shuijun; Sun, Chuanwang

    2015-01-01

    As the service sector dominates the economy in developed countries, its environmental impact has become an important issue. Based on a multi-regional input–output model, this paper estimates consumption-based emissions of service sectors of 41 countries and regions, and discusses the emission abatement policy of service sectors. The results indicate that consumption-based emissions of the service sector in most countries and regions are much greater than direct emissions generated by the service sector. Further decomposition by production sources demonstrates that final demand for services in certain countries causes substantial emissions in the other countries. In most countries, major parts of consumption-based emissions of the service sector come from upstream emissions in non-service sectors due to the intermediate consumption of non-service inputs in the service sector. For the US and China, the consumption-based emissions of their service sectors are traced back to different service consumption bundles and production sectors, which enable us to identify service categories and production sectors that play key roles in the impact of service sectors on CO 2 emissions. Finally, policy implications of the results are discussed for the climate effect of the service-oriented economy, global mitigation of climate change, sustainability, and the decarbonization of the service sector. - Highlights: • A consumption perspective for the assessment of the environmental impact of the service sector. • International supply chain effect is analyzed using a global input–output model. • Consumption-based emissions of the service sector are decomposed in two ways. • Policy implications for emissions mitigation in the service-oriented economy.

  7. Implications of sustainability constraints on UK bioenergy development: Assessing optimistic and precautionary approaches with UK MARKAL

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McDowall, Will; Anandarajah, Gabrial; Dodds, Paul E.; Tomei, Julia

    2012-01-01

    Bioenergy is an important renewable energy resource. However, assessments of the future of bioenergy are beset with uncertainty and contested values, suggesting that a precautionary approach to bioenergy resource development may be warranted. This paper uses UK MARKAL to examine the implications of adopting a precautionary approach to bioenergy development in the UK. The paper reports a detailed review of UK bioenergy resources and sustainability constraints, and develops precautionary and optimistic resource scenarios. The paper then examines the implications of these scenarios using the energy systems model MARKAL, finding that a precautionary approach adds to the cost of decarbonisation, but does not significantly alter the optimal technology mix. In particular, biomass and co-firing CCS emerge as optimal technologies across scenarios. The question of UK land availability for bioenergy production is highlighted within the paper. With less land available for bioenergy production, the costs of decarbonisation will rise; whereas if more land is available for bioenergy, then less land is available for either food production or ecosystem conservation. This paper quantifies one side of this trade-off, by estimating the additional costs incurred when UK land availability for bioenergy production is constrained. - Highlights: ► We assess UK bioenergy resources under optimistic and precautionary approaches. ► Using MARKAL, we find that sustainability constraints add to decarbonisation costs. ► Preferred use of bioenergy is similar in optimistic and precautionary cases. ► Best use of bioenergy is heat and power, not transport, if CCS is available. ► The marginal value of additional land availability to the energy system is high.

  8. MARKAL Application for Analysis of Energy Efficiency in Economic Activities of the Republic of Moldova and Feasible use of Renewable Energy Sources

    OpenAIRE

    Robu, Sergiu; Bikova, Elena; Siakkis, Philip; Giannakidis, George

    2010-01-01

    The paper presents results of analyses of energy efficiency measures and renewable energy sources implementation in the Republic of Moldova using MARKAL model. Detailed analyses of four scenarios are presented for: Reference Scenario; Energy Efficiency Scenario; Renewable Energy Sources Scenario; Energy Efficiency&Renewable Energy Scenario. Energy savings and costs are identified for implementation of renewable energy sources and Energy efficiency measures.

  9. Multi-region relaxed magnetohydrodynamics with flow

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dennis, G. R., E-mail: graham.dennis@anu.edu.au; Dewar, R. L.; Hole, M. J. [Research School of Physics and Engineering, Australian National University, ACT 0200 (Australia); Hudson, S. R. [Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory, PO Box 451, Princeton, New Jersey 08543 (United States)

    2014-04-15

    We present an extension of the multi-region relaxed magnetohydrodynamics (MRxMHD) equilibrium model that includes plasma flow. This new model is a generalization of Woltjer's model of relaxed magnetohydrodynamics equilibria with flow. We prove that as the number of plasma regions becomes infinite, our extension of MRxMHD reduces to ideal MHD with flow. We also prove that some solutions to MRxMHD with flow are not time-independent in the laboratory frame, and instead have 3D structure which rotates in the toroidal direction with fixed angular velocity. This capability gives MRxMHD potential application to describing rotating 3D MHD structures such as 'snakes' and long-lived modes.

  10. CONSTRUCTING A MULTI-REGIONAL SOCIAL ACCOUNTING MATRIX FOR TURKEY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Metin Piskin

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Regional impacts of public policies in Turkey have led to Regional Development Agencies and related institutions having responsibility for setting and achieving sustainability policies at the regional level. As a result, there is a significant interest in developing empirical models that can deal with the macro, micro and regional impacts of economic policies and interregional spillover effects. Spatial or Multi-Regional Computable General Equilibrium models are the most capable models to handle a wide range of policy relevant regional questions and the effects of policies on a comprehensive set of regional and national economic variables. However, an important ingredient in meeting the Multi-Regional CGE analysis is Multi-Regional Social Accounting Matrices. This study is focusing on the building the first Multi-Regional Social Accounting Matrix for Turkey with 11 regions and 8 sectors. We utilize from the most updated available datasets and implement the most conveninent non-survey methods which fit to data availability in Turkey.

  11. Strategic research on CO2 emission reduction for China. Application of MARKAL to China energy system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Yongping

    1995-09-01

    MARKAL was applied to the energy system for analyzing the CO 2 emission reduction in China over the time period from 1990 to 2050. First the Chinese Reference Energy System (CRES) was established based on the framework of MARKAL model. The following conclusions can be drawn from this study. When shifting from scenario LH (low useful energy demand and high import fuel prices) to HL (high demand and low prices), another 33 EJ of primary energy will be consumed and another 2.31 billion tons of CO 2 will be emitted in 2050. Detailed analyses on the disaggregation of CO 2 emissions by Kaya Formula show. The energy intensity (primary energy/GDP) decreases much faster in scenario HL, but the higher growth rate of GDP per capita is the overwhelming factor that results in higher CO 2 emission per capita in the baseline case of scenario HL in comparison with LH. When the carbon taxes are imposed on CO 2 emissions, the residential sector will make the biggest contribution to CO 2 emission abatement from a long-term point of view. However, it's difficult to stabilize CO 2 emission per capita before 2030 in both scenarios even with heavy carbon taxes. When nuclear moratorium occurs, more 560 million tons of CO 2 will be emitted to the atmosphere in 2050 under the same CO 2 tax regime. From the analysis of value flow, CO 2 emission reduction depends largely on new or advanced technologies particularly in the field of electricity generation. The competent technologies switch to those CO 2 less-emitting technologies when surcharging CO 2 emissions. Nuclear power shows significant potential in saving fossil energy resources and reducing CO 2 emissions. (J.P.N.)

  12. A Computational Model Based on Multi-Regional Calcium Imaging Represents the Spatio-Temporal Dynamics in a Caenorhabditis elegans Sensory Neuron.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Masahiro Kuramochi

    Full Text Available Due to the huge number of neuronal cells in the brain and their complex circuit formation, computer simulation of neuronal activity is indispensable to understanding whole brain dynamics. Recently, various computational models have been developed based on whole-brain calcium imaging data. However, these analyses monitor only the activity of neuronal cell bodies and treat the cells as point unit. This point-neuron model is inexpensive in computational costs, but the model is unrealistically simplistic at representing intact neural activities in the brain. Here, we describe a novel three-unit Ordinary Differential Equation (ODE model based on the neuronal responses derived from a Caenorhabditis elegans salt-sensing neuron. We recorded calcium responses in three regions of the ASER neuron using a simple downstep of NaCl concentration. Our simple ODE model generated from a single recording can adequately reproduce and predict the temporal responses of each part of the neuron to various types of NaCl concentration changes. Our strategy which combines a simple recording data and an ODE mathematical model may be extended to realistically understand whole brain dynamics by computational simulation.

  13. Multi-region relaxed magnetohydrodynamics with anisotropy and flow

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dennis, G. R., E-mail: graham.dennis@anu.edu.au; Dewar, R. L.; Hole, M. J. [Research School of Physics and Engineering, Australian National University, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory 0200 (Australia); Hudson, S. R. [Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory, PO Box 451, Princeton, New Jersey 08543 (United States)

    2014-07-15

    We present an extension of the multi-region relaxed magnetohydrodynamics (MRxMHD) equilibrium model that includes pressure anisotropy and general plasma flows. This anisotropic extension to our previous isotropic model is motivated by Sun and Finn's model of relaxed anisotropic magnetohydrodynamic equilibria. We prove that as the number of plasma regions becomes infinite, our anisotropic extension of MRxMHD reduces to anisotropic ideal MHD with flow. The continuously nested flux surface limit of our MRxMHD model is the first variational principle for anisotropic plasma equilibria with general flow fields.

  14. The future of natural gas consumption in Beijing, Guangdong and Shanghai: An assessment utilizing MARKAL

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jiang Binbin; Wenying, Chen; Yu Yuefeng; Zeng Lemin; Victor, David

    2008-01-01

    Natural gas could possibly become a si0gnificant portion of the future fuel mix in China. However, there is still great uncertainty surrounding the size of this potential market and therefore its impact on the global gas trade. In order to identify some of the important factors that might drive natural gas consumption in key demand areas in China, we focus on three regions: Beijing, Guangdong, and Shanghai. Using the economic optimization model MARKAL, we initially assume that the drivers are government mandates of emissions standards, reform of the Chinese financial structure, the price and available supply of natural gas, and the rate of penetration of advanced power generating and end-use. The results from the model show that the level of natural gas consumption is most sensitive to policy scenarios, which strictly limit SO 2 emissions from power plants. The model also revealed that the low cost of capital for power plants in China boosts the economic viability of capital-intensive coal-fired plants. This suggests that reform within the financial sector could be a lever for encouraging increased natural gas use

  15. Computation of multi-region relaxed magnetohydrodynamic equilibria

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hudson, S. R.; Lazerson, S. [Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory, P.O. Box 451, Princeton, New Jersey 08543 (United States); Dewar, R. L.; Dennis, G.; Hole, M. J.; McGann, M.; Nessi, G. von [Plasma Research Laboratory, Research School of Physics and Engineering, Australian National University, Canberra ACT 0200 (Australia)

    2012-11-15

    We describe the construction of stepped-pressure equilibria as extrema of a multi-region, relaxed magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) energy functional that combines elements of ideal MHD and Taylor relaxation, and which we call MRXMHD. The model is compatible with Hamiltonian chaos theory and allows the three-dimensional MHD equilibrium problem to be formulated in a well-posed manner suitable for computation. The energy-functional is discretized using a mixed finite-element, Fourier representation for the magnetic vector potential and the equilibrium geometry; and numerical solutions are constructed using the stepped-pressure equilibrium code, SPEC. Convergence studies with respect to radial and Fourier resolution are presented.

  16. Data structures supporting multi-region adaptive isogeometric analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perduta, Anna; Putanowicz, Roman

    2018-01-01

    Since the first paper published in 2005 Isogeometric Analysis (IGA) has gained strong interest and found applications in many engineering problems. Despite the advancement of the method, there are still far fewer software implementations comparing to Finite Element Method. The paper presents an approach to the development of data structures that can support multi-region IGA with local mesh refinement (patch-based) and possible application in IGA-FEM models. The purpose of this paper is to share original design concepts, that authors have created while developing an IGA package, which other researchers may find beneficial for their own simulation codes.

  17. Integrated economic assessment of energy and forestry mitigation options using MARKAL

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1998-01-01

    There have been a number of economic assessment of GHG mitigation studies carried out in Indonesia. Several alternative mitigation options for energy and non-energy sectors have been described and the economic assessment of the options has been done for each sectors. However, most of the economic assessment particularly for non-energy sector, was not to find a least cost option but the lowest cost options. A program called MARKAL developed by a consortium of energy specialists from more than a dozen countries in the early 1980s, is a program that can be used for optimization, so that the least cost options could be selected. Indonesia has used this program intensively for energy system analysis. Attempt to use this program for other sector has not been developed as this program was designed for energy sector. Therefore, using MARKAL for other sector, all activities of the other sectors should be treated as energy activities. This study is aimed to use MARKAL for analysing both energy and forestry sector together. This paper described briefly the methodology of using MARKAL for both energy and forestry sectors. As the activities in energy sector have unique characteristics, thus only forest activities are described in more detail. (au)

  18. Strategic research on CO{sub 2} emission reduction for China. Application of MARKAL to China energy system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yongping, Wang [Japan Atomic Energy Research Inst., Tokai, Ibaraki (Japan). Tokai Research Establishment

    1995-09-01

    MARKAL was applied to the energy system for analyzing the CO{sub 2} emission reduction in China over the time period from 1990 to 2050. First the Chinese Reference Energy System (CRES) was established based on the framework of MARKAL model. The following conclusions can be drawn from this study. When shifting from scenario LH (low useful energy demand and high import fuel prices) to HL (high demand and low prices), another 33 EJ of primary energy will be consumed and another 2.31 billion tons of CO{sub 2} will be emitted in 2050. Detailed analyses on the disaggregation of CO{sub 2} emissions by Kaya Formula show. The energy intensity (primary energy/GDP) decreases much faster in scenario HL, but the higher growth rate of GDP per capita is the overwhelming factor that results in higher CO{sub 2} emission per capita in the baseline case of scenario HL in comparison with LH. When the carbon taxes are imposed on CO{sub 2} emissions, the residential sector will make the biggest contribution to CO{sub 2} emission abatement from a long-term point of view. However, it`s difficult to stabilize CO{sub 2} emission per capita before 2030 in both scenarios even with heavy carbon taxes. When nuclear moratorium occurs, more 560 million tons of CO{sub 2} will be emitted to the atmosphere in 2050 under the same CO{sub 2} tax regime. From the analysis of value flow, CO{sub 2} emission reduction depends largely on new or advanced technologies particularly in the field of electricity generation. The competent technologies switch to those CO{sub 2} less-emitting technologies when surcharging CO{sub 2} emissions. Nuclear power shows significant potential in saving fossil energy resources and reducing CO{sub 2} emissions. (J.P.N.).

  19. Variational formulation of relaxed and multi-region relaxed magnetohydrodynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dewar, R. L.; Yoshida, Z.; Bhattacharjee, A.; Hudson, S. R.

    2015-12-01

    > Ideal magnetohydrodynamics (IMHD) is strongly constrained by an infinite number of microscopic constraints expressing mass, entropy and magnetic flux conservation in each infinitesimal fluid element, the latter preventing magnetic reconnection. By contrast, in the Taylor relaxation model for formation of macroscopically self-organized plasma equilibrium states, all these constraints are relaxed save for the global magnetic fluxes and helicity. A Lagrangian variational principle is presented that leads to a new, fully dynamical, relaxed magnetohydrodynamics (RxMHD), such that all static solutions are Taylor states but also allows state with flow. By postulating that some long-lived macroscopic current sheets can act as barriers to relaxation, separating the plasma into multiple relaxation regions, a further generalization, multi-region relaxed magnetohydrodynamics (MRxMHD) is developed.

  20. TRANSFER-FUNCTIONS OF A LINEARIZED MULTI-REGION REACTOR

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Higgins, Thomas J.

    1963-09-15

    The development of the transfer functions for a linearized multi-region reactor is studied, and an illustration is made of application of the corresponding theory by a numerical illustrative example. (auth)

  1. Market penetration analysis of the use of hydrogen in the road transport sector of the Madrid region, using MARKAL

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Contreras, A.; Guervos, E.; Posso, F.

    2009-01-01

    Nobody can doubt today that hydrogen will, in the not-too-distant future, represent a very significant percentage of the total energy used by the transport sector. This study therefore consists of the modelling and simulation of energy consumption, by type of vehicle and fuel or energetic vector, in the road transport sector of the Madrid Region, during the period 2010-2050, using the MARKAL model. It has been necessary to complete this model by adding numerous specifications in order to determine the features of the Madrid Region, the richest Region in Spain. For the purpose of the study, three growth scenarios, based on short-term energy forecasts made by different official organizations, have been proposed for the energy consumption of the road transport sector in the Region. The results show a profound change in the current situation as there is a significant decrease in the consumption of fossil fuels and an increase in that of alternative non-fossil fuels and hydrogen. The latter, in particular, will rise from 0.1% in the year 2010, to around 50% in the year 2050, which will mean a drastic drop in the sector's CO 2 and atmospheric pollutant emissions. (author)

  2. Market penetration analysis of the use of hydrogen in the road transport sector of the Madrid region, using MARKAL

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Contreras, A.; Guervos, E. [Chemical Engineering Department, Universidad Nacional de Educacion a Distancia (UNED), Juan del Rosal 12, Madrid 28040 (Spain); Posso, F. [Science Department, ULA - Tachira, San Cristobal 5001 (Venezuela)

    2009-01-15

    Nobody can doubt today that hydrogen will, in the not-too-distant future, represent a very significant percentage of the total energy used by the transport sector. This study therefore consists of the modelling and simulation of energy consumption, by type of vehicle and fuel or energetic vector, in the road transport sector of the Madrid Region, during the period 2010-2050, using the MARKAL model. It has been necessary to complete this model by adding numerous specifications in order to determine the features of the Madrid Region, the richest Region in Spain. For the purpose of the study, three growth scenarios, based on short-term energy forecasts made by different official organizations, have been proposed for the energy consumption of the road transport sector in the Region. The results show a profound change in the current situation as there is a significant decrease in the consumption of fossil fuels and an increase in that of alternative non-fossil fuels and hydrogen. The latter, in particular, will rise from 0.1% in the year 2010, to around 50% in the year 2050, which will mean a drastic drop in the sector's CO{sub 2} and atmospheric pollutant emissions. (author)

  3. Modelling approaches to assess and design the deployment of CO2 capture, transport and storage

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van den Broek, M.A.

    2010-01-01

    Chapter 2 presents a quantitative scenario study for the electricity and cogeneration sector in the Netherlands using MARKAL-NL-UU. This model is specifically developed for this research and is a dynamic bottom-up energy model with special CCS features generated with MARKAL. The focus of this

  4. Analysis of multi-pollutant policies for the U.S. power sector under technology and policy uncertainty using MARKAL

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hu, Ming-Che; Hobbs, Benjamin F.

    2010-01-01

    Investments in power generation, pollution controls, and electricity end use equipment are made in the face of uncertainty. Unanticipated events can cause regret-commitments that in retrospect were the wrong choices. We analyze how three uncertainties-electricity demand growth, natural gas prices, and power sector greenhouse gas regulations-could affect electric power sector investment decisions and costs in the U.S. over the next four decades. The effect of multi-pollutant regulations such as the Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR) upon these decisions and costs is also considered. We use decision trees to structure the problem, defining multiple futures for each uncertainty and then simulating how the U.S. energy market responds to them. A two-stage stochastic version of the energy-economy model MARKAL simulates the market. Relative importance of the uncertainties is assessed using two indices: expected cost of ignoring uncertainty (ECIU) and expected value of perfect information (EVPI). We also calculate the value of policy coordination (VPC), the cost saved by avoiding surprise changes in policy. An example shows how a stochastic program can be used to compute these indices. The analysis shows that the possibility of greenhouse gas regulation is the most important uncertainty by these measures.

  5. Phase II - final report of MARKAL studies for the United Kingdom

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Finnis, M.W.

    1980-10-01

    A system analysis approach to the assessment of comparative cost and energy contributions of some new technologies is presented. The work reported here refers to the energy system of the United Kingdom, and was carried out within the context of a multi-national R and D Strategy Project. The main tool of analysis is the linear program MARKAL, the function and method of operation of which are described briefly. A range of 14 scenarios is analysed, covering various assumption about the availability of oil, of nuclear power, and of the new technologies themselves. The input data used are described in detail. An overall view of the results is obtained in terms of the trade-off between independence from imported oil and total extra cost, and a cross-section of the detailed results is presented to illustrate and analyse the role of a number of new technologies. (orig.) [de

  6. The multi region molten-salt reactor concept

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gyula, Csom; Sandor, Feher; Szieberth, M.; Szabolcs, Czifrus

    2003-01-01

    The molten-salt reactor (MSR) concept is one of the most promising systems for the realisation of transmutation. The objective is the development of a transmutation technique along with a device implementing it, which yield higher transmutation efficiencies than that of the known procedures. The procedure is the multi-step transmutation, in which the transformation is carried out in several consecutive steps of different neutron flux and spectrum. In order to implement this, a multi-region transmutation device, i.e. nuclear reactor or sub-critical system is proposed, in which several separate flow-through irradiation rooms are formed with various neutron spectra and fluxes. The paper presents calculations that were performed for a special 5-region version of the multi-region molten-salt reactor. (author)

  7. Highly accurate potential calculations for cylindrically symmetric geometries using multi-region FDM: A review

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Edwards, David, E-mail: dej@kingcon.com [IJL Research Center, Newark, VT 05871 (United States)

    2011-07-21

    This paper is a review of multi-region FDM, a numerical technique for accurately determining electrostatic potentials in cylindrically symmetric geometries. Multi-region FDM can be thought of as the union of various individual elements: a single region FDM process: a method for algorithmic development; a method for auto creating a multi-region structure; the process for the relaxation of multi-region structures. Each element will be briefly described along with its integration into the multi-region relaxation process itself.

  8. Multi-region optimal deployment of renewable energy considering different interregional transmission scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Ge; Zhang, Qi; Mclellan, Benjamin C.; Li, Hailong

    2016-01-01

    Renewable energy is expected to play much more important role in future low-carbon energy system, however, renewable energy has problems with regard to load-following and regional imbalance. This study aims to plan the deployment of intermittent renewable energy in multiple regions considering the impacts of regional natural conditions and generation capacity mix as well as interregional transmission capacity using a multi-region dynamic optimization model. The model was developed to find optimized development paths toward future smart electricity systems with high level penetration of intermittent renewable energy considering regional differences and interregional transmission at national scale. As a case study, the model was applied to plan power generation in nine interconnected regions in Japan out to 2030. Four scenarios were proposed with different supporting policies for the interregional power transmission infrastructures and different nuclear power phase-out scenarios. The analysis results show that (i) the government's support for power transmission infrastructures is vital important to develop more intermittent renewable energy in appropriate regions and utilize renewable energy more efficiently; (ii) nuclear and renewable can complement rather than replace each other if enough interregional transmission capacity is provided. - Highlights: • Plan the optimal deployment of intermittent renewable energy in multiple regions. • A multi-region dynamic optimization model was developed. • The impacts of natural conditions and interregional transmission are studied. • The government's support for transmission is vital important for renewable energy. • Nuclear and renewable can complement rather than replace each other.

  9. Multi-region fuzzy logic controller with local PID controllers for U-tube steam generator in nuclear power plant

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Puchalski Bartosz

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available In the paper, analysis of multi-region fuzzy logic controller with local PID controllers for steam generator of pressurized water reactor (PWR working in wide range of thermal power changes is presented. The U-tube steam generator has a nonlinear dynamics depending on thermal power transferred from coolant of the primary loop of the PWR plant. Control of water level in the steam generator conducted by a traditional PID controller which is designed for nominal power level of the nuclear reactor operates insufficiently well in wide range of operational conditions, especially at the low thermal power level. Thus the steam generator is often controlled manually by operators. Incorrect water level in the steam generator may lead to accidental shutdown of the nuclear reactor and consequently financial losses. In the paper a comparison of proposed multi region fuzzy logic controller and traditional PID controllers designed only for nominal condition is presented. The gains of the local PID controllers have been derived by solving appropriate optimization tasks with the cost function in a form of integrated squared error (ISE criterion. In both cases, a model of steam generator which is readily available in literature was used for control algorithms synthesis purposes. The proposed multi-region fuzzy logic controller and traditional PID controller were subjected to broad-based simulation tests in rapid prototyping software - Matlab/Simulink. These tests proved the advantage of multi-region fuzzy logic controller with local PID controllers over its traditional counterpart.

  10. Multi-region relaxed Hall magnetohydrodynamics with flow

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lingam, Manasvi, E-mail: mlingam@princeton.edu [Department of Astrophysical Sciences, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey 08544 (United States); Abdelhamid, Hamdi M., E-mail: hamdi@ppl.k.u-tokyo.ac.jp [Graduate School of Frontier Sciences, The University of Tokyo, Kashiwanoha, Kashiwa, Chiba 277-8561 (Japan); Physics Department, Faculty of Science, Mansoura University, Mansoura 35516 (Egypt); Hudson, Stuart R., E-mail: shudson@pppl.gov [Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory, PO Box 451, Princeton, New Jersey 08543 (United States)

    2016-08-15

    The recent formulations of multi-region relaxed magnetohydrodynamics (MRxMHD) have generalized the famous Woltjer-Taylor states by incorporating a collection of “ideal barriers” that prevent global relaxation and flow. In this paper, we generalize MRxMHD with flow to include Hall effects, and thereby obtain the partially relaxed counterparts of the famous double Beltrami states as a special subset. The physical and mathematical consequences arising from the introduction of the Hall term are also presented. We demonstrate that our results (in the ideal MHD limit) constitute an important subset of ideal MHD equilibria, and we compare our approach against other variational principles proposed for deriving the partially relaxed states.

  11. Multi-regional clinical trials and global drug development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Premnath Shenoy

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Drug development has been globalized, and multi-regional clinical trial (MRCT for regulatory submission has widely been conducted by many discovery based global pharmaceutical companies with the objective of reducing the time lag of launch in key markets and improve patient access to new and innovative treatments. Sponsors are facing several challenges while conducting multiregional clinical trials. Challenges under the heads statistics, clinical, regulatory operational, and ethics have been discussed. Regulators in different countries such as USA, EU-Japan, and China have issued guidance documents in respect of MRCT's. Lack of harmonization in the design and planning of MRCT is perceived to create a difficult situation to sponsors adversely affecting progressing MRCT in more and more discoveries. International conference on hormonisation (ICH has initiated the process for having a harmonized guidance document on MRCT. This document is likely to be issued in early 2017.

  12. Colorectal Cancer Genetic Heterogeneity Delineated by Multi-Region Sequencing.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    You-Wang Lu

    Full Text Available Intratumor heterogeneity (ITH leads to an underestimation of the mutational landscape portrayed by a single needle biopsy and consequently affects treatment precision. The extent of colorectal cancer (CRC genetic ITH is not well understood in Chinese patients. Thus, we conducted deep sequencing by using the OncoGxOne™ Plus panel, targeting 333 cancer-specific genes in multi-region biopsies of primary and liver metastatic tumors from three Chinese CRC patients. We determined that the extent of ITH varied among the three cases. On average, 65% of all the mutations detected were common within individual tumors. KMT2C aberrations and the NCOR1 mutation were the only ubiquitous events. Subsequent phylogenetic analysis showed that the tumors evolved in a branched manner. Comparison of the primary and metastatic tumors revealed that PPP2R1A (E370X, SETD2 (I1608V, SMAD4 (G382T, and AR splicing site mutations may be specific to liver metastatic cancer. These mutations might contribute to the initiation and progression of distant metastasis. Collectively, our analysis identified a substantial level of genetic ITH in CRC, which should be considered for personalized therapeutic strategies.

  13. Feasibility of storing CO2 in the Utsira formation as part of a long term Dutch CCS strategy. An evaluation based on a GIS/MARKAL toolbox

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van den Broek, M.A.; Ramirez-Ramirez, A.; Turkenburg, W.; Faaij, A; Groenenberg, H.; Neele, F.P.; Viebahn, P.

    2009-09-01

    This study provides insight into the feasibility of a CO2 trunkline from the Netherlands to the Utsira formation in the Norwegian part of the North Sea, which is a large geological storage reservoir for CO2. The feasibility is investigated in competition with CO2 storage in onshore and near-offshore sinks in the Netherlands. Least-cost modelling with a MARKAL model in combination with ArcGIS was used to assess the cost-effectiveness of the trunkline as part of a Dutch greenhouse gas emission reduction strategy for the Dutch electricity sector and CO2 intensive industry. The results show that under the condition that a CO2 permit price increases from 25 euro per tCO2 in 2010 to 60 euro per tCO2 in 2030, and remains at this level up to 2050, CO2 emissions in the Netherlands could reduce with 67% in 2050 compared to 1990, and investment in the Utsira trunkline may be cost-effective from 2020-2030 provided that Belgian and German CO2 is transported and stored via the Netherlands as well. In this case, by 2050 more than 2.1 GtCO2 would have been transported from the Netherlands to the Utsira formation. However, if the Utsira trunkline is not used for transportation of CO2 from Belgium and Germany, it may become cost-effective 10 years later, and less than 1.3 GtCO2 from the Netherlands would have been stored in the Utsira formation by 2050. On the short term, CO2 storage in Dutch fields appears more cost-effective than in the Utsira formation, but as yet there are major uncertainties related to the timing and effective exploitation of the Dutch offshore storage opportunities.

  14. Bottom-Up modeling, a tool for decision support for long-term policy on energy and environment - The TIMES model applied to the energy intensive industries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Djemaa, A.

    2009-01-01

    Among the energy users in France and Europe, some industrial sectors are very important and should have a key role when assessing the final energy demand patterns in the future. The aim of our work is to apply a prospective model for the long range analysis of energy/technology choices in the industrial sector, focussing on the energy-intensive sectors. The modelling tool applied in this study is the TIMES model (family of best known MARKAL model). It is an economic linear programming model generator for local, national or multi regional energy systems, which provides a technology-rich basis for estimating energy dynamics over a long term, multi period time. We illustrate our work with nine energy-intensive industrial sectors: paper, steel, glass, cement, lime, tiles, brick, ceramics and plaster. It includes a detailed description of the processes involved in the production of industrial products, providing typical energy uses in each process step. In our analysis, we identified for each industry, several commercially available state-of-the-art technologies, characterized and chosen by the Model on the basis of cost effectiveness. Furthermore, we calculated potential energy savings, carbon dioxide emissions' reduction and we estimated the energy impact of a technological rupture. This work indicates that there still exists a significant potential for energy savings and carbon dioxide emissions' reduction in all industries. (author)

  15. Analysis on market deployment of photovoltaics in Japan by using energy system model MARKAL

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Endo, Eiichi; Ichinohe, Masayuki

    2006-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to make clear the conditions which can achieve the target for PV capacity attaining goal of PV system sales price assuming carbon tax and buyback in Japan. Based on the results of analysis, under expected carbon tax, PV needs subsidy for a while even if we consider both avoided cost and Green Credit. For attaining the target in 2010, PV needs more expensive buyback than that at present. After 2010 necessary subsidy decreases gradually and it becomes unnecessary in 2030. Annual income of the expected carbon tax can sufficiently cover the estimated annual subsidy. (author)

  16. Assessing the economic impact of North China’s water scarcity mitigation strategy : a multi - region, water - extended computable general equilibrium analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Qin, Changbo; Qin, C.; Su, Zhongbo; Bressers, Johannes T.A.; Jia, Y.; Wang, H.

    2013-01-01

    This paper describes a multi-region computable general equilibrium model for analyzing the effectiveness of measures and policies for mitigating North China’s water scarcity with respect to three different groups of scenarios. The findings suggest that a reduction in groundwater use would negatively

  17. Efficient 3D multi-region prostate MRI segmentation using dual optimization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qiu, Wu; Yuan, Jing; Ukwatta, Eranga; Sun, Yue; Rajchl, Martin; Fenster, Aaron

    2013-01-01

    Efficient and accurate extraction of the prostate, in particular its clinically meaningful sub-regions from 3D MR images, is of great interest in image-guided prostate interventions and diagnosis of prostate cancer. In this work, we propose a novel multi-region segmentation approach to simultaneously locating the boundaries of the prostate and its two major sub-regions: the central gland and the peripheral zone. The proposed method utilizes the prior knowledge of the spatial region consistency and employs a customized prostate appearance model to simultaneously segment multiple clinically meaningful regions. We solve the resulted challenging combinatorial optimization problem by means of convex relaxation, for which we introduce a novel spatially continuous flow-maximization model and demonstrate its duality to the investigated convex relaxed optimization problem with the region consistency constraint. Moreover, the proposed continuous max-flow model naturally leads to a new and efficient continuous max-flow based algorithm, which enjoys great advantages in numerics and can be readily implemented on GPUs. Experiments using 15 T2-weighted 3D prostate MR images, by inter- and intra-operator variability, demonstrate the promising performance of the proposed approach.

  18. Endogenous implementation of technology gap in energy optimization models-a systematic analysis within TIMES G5 model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rout, Ullash K.; Fahl, Ulrich; Remme, Uwe; Blesl, Markus; Voss, Alfred

    2009-01-01

    Evaluation of global diffusion potential of learning technologies and their timely specific cost development across regions is always a challenging issue for the future technology policy preparation. Further the process of evaluation gains interest especially by endogenous treatment of energy technologies under uncertainty in learning rates with technology gap across the regions in global regional cluster learning approach. This work devised, implemented, and examined new methodologies on technology gaps (a practical problem), using two broad concepts of knowledge deficit and time lag approaches in global learning, applying the floor cost approach methodology. The study was executed in a multi-regional, technology-rich and long horizon bottom-up linear energy system model on The Integrated MARKAL EFOM System (TIMES) framework. Global learning selects highest learning technologies in maximum uncertainty of learning rate scenario, whereas any form of technology gap retards the global learning process and discourages the technologies deployment. Time lag notions of technology gaps prefer heavy utilization of learning technologies in developed economies for early reduction of specific cost. Technology gaps of any kind should be reduced among economies through the promotion and enactment of various policies by governments, in order to utilize the technological resources by mass deployment to combat ongoing climate change.

  19. Challenges from variation across regions in cost effectiveness analysis in multi-regional clinical trials

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yunbo Chu

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Economic evaluation in the form of cost-effectiveness analysis has become a popular means to inform decisions in healthcare. With multi-regional clinical trials in a global development program becoming a new venue for drug efficacy testing in recent decades, questions in methods for cost-effectiveness analysis in the multi-regional clinical trials setting also emerge. This paper addresses some challenges from variation across regions in cost effectiveness analysis in multi-regional clinical trials. Several discussion points are raised for further attention and a multi-regional clinical trial example is presented to illustrate the implications in industrial application. A general message is delivered to call for a depth discussion by all stakeholders to reach an agreement on a good practice in cost-effectiveness analysis in the multi-regional clinical trials. Meanwhile, we recommend an additional consideration of cost-effectiveness analysis results based on the clinical evidence from a certain homogeneous population as sensitivity or scenario analysis upon data availability.

  20. Norwegian Residential Energy Demand: Coordinated use of a System Engineering and a Macroeconomic Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tor A Johnsen

    1996-07-01

    Full Text Available In Norway, the system engineering model MARKAL and the macroeconomic model MSG-EE are both used in studies of national CO2 controlling strategies. MARKAL is a linear programming model that calculates a composite set of technologies necessary to meet demand and environmental constraints at minimised total energy expenditure. MSG-EE is an applied general equilibrium model including the link between economic activity, energy demand and emissions to air. MSG-EE has a theory consistent description of the link between income, prices and energy demand, but the representation of technological improvements is simple. MARKAL has a sophisticated description of future energy technology options, but includes no feedback to the general economy. A project for studying the potential for a coordinated use of these two models was initiated and funded by the Norwegian Research Council (NFR. This paper gives a brief presentation of the two models. Results from independent model calculations show that MARKAL gives a signficant lower residential energy demand than MSG-EE does. This is explained by major differences in modelling approach. A first attempt of coordinating the residential energy demand in the models is reported. This attempt shows that implementing results from MARKAL, in MSG-EE for the residential sector alone gives little impact on the general economy. A further development of an iteration procedure between the models should include all energy using sectors.

  1. Cost-benefit analysis of multi-regional nuclear energy systems deployment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Den Durpel, L.G.G.; Wade, D.C.; Yacout, A.M.

    2007-01-01

    The paper describes the preliminary results of a cost/benefit-analysis of multi-regional nuclear energy system approaches with a focus on how multi-regional approaches may benefit a growing nuclear energy system in various world regions also being able to limit, or even reduce, the costs associated with the nuclear fuel cycle and facilitating the introduction of nuclear energy in various regions in the world. The paper highlights the trade-off one might envisage in deploying such multi-regional approaches but also the pay backs possible and concludes on the economical benefits one may associate to regional fuel cycle centres serving a world-fleet of STAR (small fast reactors of long refueling interval) where these STARs may be competitive compared to the LWRs (Light Water Reactors) as a base-case nuclear reactor option. (authors)

  2. Radially and azimuthally dependent resonance self-shielding treatment for general multi-region geometry based on a unified theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koike, Hiroki; Kirimura, Kazuki; Yamaji, Kazuya; Kosaka, Shinya; Yamamoto, Akio

    2018-01-01

    A unified resonance self-shielding method, which can treat general sub-divided fuel regions, is developed for lattice physics calculations in reactor physics field. In a past study, a hybrid resonance treatment has been developed by theoretically integrating equivalence theory and ultra-fine-group slowing-down calculation. It can be applied to a wide range of neutron spectrum conditions including low moderator density ranges in severe accident states, as long as each fuel region is not sub-divided. In order to extend the method for radially and azimuthally sub-divided multi-region geometry, a new resonance treatment is established by incorporating the essence of sub-group method. The present method is composed of two-step flux calculation, i.e. 'coarse geometry + fine energy' (first step) and 'fine geometry + coarse energy' (second step) calculations. The first step corresponds to a hybrid model of the equivalence theory and the ultra-fine-group calculation, and the second step corresponds to the sub-group method. From the verification results, effective cross-sections by the new method show good agreement with the continuous energy Monte-Carlo results for various multi-region geometries including non-uniform fuel compositions and temperature distributions. The present method can accurately generate effective cross-sections with short computation time in general lattice physics calculations. (author)

  3. Demand-driven water withdrawals by Chinese industry: a multi-regional input-output analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Bo; Chen, Z. M.; Zeng, L.; Qiao, H.; Chen, B.

    2016-03-01

    With ever increasing water demands and the continuous intensification of water scarcity arising from China's industrialization, the country is struggling to harmonize its industrial development and water supply. This paper presents a systems analysis of water withdrawals by Chinese industry and investigates demand-driven industrial water uses embodied in final demand and interregional trade based on a multi-regional input-output model. In 2007, the Electric Power, Steam, and Hot Water Production and Supply sector ranks first in direct industrial water withdrawal (DWW), and Construction has the largest embodied industrial water use (EWU). Investment, consumption, and exports contribute to 34.6%, 33.3%, and 30.6% of the national total EWU, respectively. Specifically, 58.0%, 51.1%, 48.6%, 43.3%, and 37.5% of the regional EWUs respectively in Guangdong, Shanghai, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, and Fujian are attributed to international exports. The total interregional import/export of embodied water is equivalent to about 40% of the national total DWW, of which 55.5% is associated with the DWWs of Electric Power, Steam, and Hot Water Production and Supply. Jiangsu is the biggest interregional exporter and deficit receiver of embodied water, in contrast to Guangdong as the biggest interregional importer and surplus receiver. Without implementing effective water-saving measures and adjusting industrial structures, the regional imbalance between water availability and water demand tends to intensify considering the water impact of domestic trade of industrial products. Steps taken to improve water use efficiency in production, and to enhance embodied water saving in consumption are both of great significance for supporting China's water policies.

  4. Example-based illustrations of design, conduct, analysis and result interpretation of multi-regional clinical trials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quan, Hui; Mao, Xuezhou; Tanaka, Yoko; Binkowitz, Bruce; Li, Gang; Chen, Josh; Zhang, Ji; Zhao, Peng-Liang; Ouyang, Soo Peter; Chang, Mark

    2017-07-01

    Extensive research has been conducted in the Multi-Regional Clinical Trial (MRCT) area. To effectively apply an appropriate approach to a MRCT, we need to synthesize and understand the features of different approaches. In this paper, examples are used to illustrate considerations regarding design, conduct, analysis and interpretation of result of MRCTs. We start with a brief discussion of region definitions and the scenarios where different regions have differing requirements for a MRCT. We then compare different designs and models as well as the corresponding interpretation of the results. We highlight the importance of paying special attention to trial monitoring and conduct to prevent potential issues associated with the final trial results. Besides evaluating the overall treatment effect for the entire MRCT, we also consider other key analyses including quantification of regional treatment effects within a MRCT, and assessment of consistency of these regional treatment effects. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. An analog computer method for solving flux distribution problems in multi region nuclear reactors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Radanovic, L; Bingulac, S; Lazarevic, B; Matausek, M [Boris Kidric Institute of Nuclear Sciences Vinca, Beograd (Yugoslavia)

    1963-04-15

    The paper describes a method developed for determining criticality conditions and plotting flux distribution curves in multi region nuclear reactors on a standard analog computer. The method, which is based on the one-dimensional two group treatment, avoids iterative procedures normally used for boundary value problems and is practically insensitive to errors in initial conditions. The amount of analog equipment required is reduced to a minimum and is independent of the number of core regions and reflectors. (author)

  6. Learning curves in energy planning models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barreto, L; Kypreos, S [Paul Scherrer Inst. (PSI), Villigen (Switzerland)

    1999-08-01

    This study describes the endogenous representation of investment cost learning curves into the MARKAL energy planning model. A piece-wise representation of the learning curves is implemented using Mixed Integer Programming. The approach is briefly described and some results are presented. (author) 3 figs., 5 refs.

  7. Energy demand analytics using coupled technological and economic models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Impacts of a range of policy scenarios on end-use energy demand are examined using a coupling of MARKAL, an energy system model with extensive supply and end-use technological detail, with Inforum LIFT, a large-scale model of the us. economy with inter-industry, government, and c...

  8. Multi-region and single-cell sequencing reveal variable genomic heterogeneity in rectal cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Mingshan; Liu, Yang; Di, Jiabo; Su, Zhe; Yang, Hong; Jiang, Beihai; Wang, Zaozao; Zhuang, Meng; Bai, Fan; Su, Xiangqian

    2017-11-23

    Colorectal cancer is a heterogeneous group of malignancies with complex molecular subtypes. While colon cancer has been widely investigated, studies on rectal cancer are very limited. Here, we performed multi-region whole-exome sequencing and single-cell whole-genome sequencing to examine the genomic intratumor heterogeneity (ITH) of rectal tumors. We sequenced nine tumor regions and 88 single cells from two rectal cancer patients with tumors of the same molecular classification and characterized their mutation profiles and somatic copy number alterations (SCNAs) at the multi-region and the single-cell levels. A variable extent of genomic heterogeneity was observed between the two patients, and the degree of ITH increased when analyzed on the single-cell level. We found that major SCNAs were early events in cancer development and inherited steadily. Single-cell sequencing revealed mutations and SCNAs which were hidden in bulk sequencing. In summary, we studied the ITH of rectal cancer at regional and single-cell resolution and demonstrated that variable heterogeneity existed in two patients. The mutational scenarios and SCNA profiles of two patients with treatment naïve from the same molecular subtype are quite different. Our results suggest each tumor possesses its own architecture, which may result in different diagnosis, prognosis, and drug responses. Remarkable ITH exists in the two patients we have studied, providing a preliminary impression of ITH in rectal cancer.

  9. EXPANDA-75: one-dimensional diffusion code for multi-region plate lattice heterogeneous system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kikuchi, Yasuyuki; Katsuragi, Satoru; Suzuki, Tomoo; Ogitsu, Makoto.

    1975-08-01

    An advanced treatment has been developed for analyzing a multi-region plate lattice heterogeneous system using the coarse group constants set provided for a homogeneous system. The essential points of this treatment are modification of effective admixture cross sections and improvement of effective elastic removal cross sections. By this treatment the heterogeneity effects for flux distributions and effective cross sections in the unit cell can be reproduced accurately in comparison with the ultra fine group treatment which consumes huge amounts of computing time. Based on the present treatment and using the JAERI-Fast set, a one-dimensional diffusion code, EXPANDA-75, was developed for extensive use for analyses of fast critical experiments. The user's guide is also presented in this report. (auth.)

  10. RICM, Resonance Absorption in Multi-Region Slab or Square or Hexagonal Lattice

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mizuta, H.; Aoyama, K.; Fukai, Y.

    1968-01-01

    1 - Nature of physical problem solved: Calculates the resonance absorption integral of resonant isotope in a multi-region lattice using the first flight collision probability. The lattice configurations considered are a slab lattice, a square or hexagonal lattice and a cylindricalized lattice with isotropic or perfect reflecting boundary condition. Cases for an isolated rod or plate and homogeneous system can also be treated. 2 - Method of solution: Slowing down of neutrons by each isotope in each region is solved by either exact numerical integration of the slowing down equation or narrow - or wide-resonance approximation. Breit-Wigner's single level formula is used for the resonance cross section and Porter-Thomas distribution of neutron width is taken into account in the unresolved region. 3 - Restrictions on the complexity of the problem: Maximum number of regions: 5; Maximum Number of groups: 100

  11. Regression-based approach for testing the association between multi-region haplotype configuration and complex trait

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhao Hongbo

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background It is quite common that the genetic architecture of complex traits involves many genes and their interactions. Therefore, dealing with multiple unlinked genomic regions simultaneously is desirable. Results In this paper we develop a regression-based approach to assess the interactions of haplotypes that belong to different unlinked regions, and we use score statistics to test the null hypothesis of non-genetic association. Additionally, multiple marker combinations at each unlinked region are considered. The multiple tests are settled via the minP approach. The P value of the "best" multi-region multi-marker configuration is corrected via Monte-Carlo simulations. Through simulation studies, we assess the performance of the proposed approach and demonstrate its validity and power in testing for haplotype interaction association. Conclusion Our simulations showed that, for binary trait without covariates, our proposed methods prove to be equal and even more powerful than htr and hapcc which are part of the FAMHAP program. Additionally, our model can be applied to a wider variety of traits and allow adjustment for other covariates. To test the validity, our methods are applied to analyze the association between four unlinked candidate genes and pig meat quality.

  12. A multi-regional structural path analysis of the energy supply chain in China's construction industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hong, Jingke; Shen, Qiping; Xue, Fan

    2016-01-01

    The construction industry in China exerts significant environmental impacts and uses considerable resources because of rapid urbanization. This study conducted a structural path analysis (SPA) based on the multi-regional input–output table to quantify environmental impact transmission in the entire supply chain. Results indicated that the direct resource input (the first stage) along with on-site construction (the zeroth stage) consumed the highest amount of energy in the supply chain and accounted for approximately 50% of total energy consumption. Regional analysis showed that energy consumption in the construction industry at the provincial level was self-sufficient. Sectoral analysis demonstrated that the direct inputs from the sectors of “manufacture of non-metallic mineral products” and “smelting and pressing of metals” generated the most important energy flows, whereas the sectors of “production and distribution of electric power and heat power” and “extraction of petroleum and natural gas” significantly but indirectly influenced energy use. Sensitivity analysis exhibited that the system boundary of SPA could be narrowed down into the first two upstream stages that contained nearly 50% of energy flow information or expanded toward the first five upstream stages that represented 80% of total energy consumption. - Highlights: •We designed an optimized algorithm for multi-regional SPA. •We extracted energy-intensive paths throughout the upstream supply chain. •We explored self-sufficiency characteristic for provincial construction industries. •We identified energy-intensive sectors hidden in higher-order supply chain. •We developed an effective strategy for narrowing down the system boundary of SPA.

  13. Assessment of nuclear energy embodied in international trade following a world multi-regional input–output approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cortés-Borda, D.; Guillén-Gosálbez, G.; Jiménez, L.

    2015-01-01

    Nuclear power can contribute to cover the increasing demand of energy while keeping the carbon emissions within the desired limits. Many countries are reluctant to implement nuclear technologies in their territories, but might still use them through imports of products that embody nuclear energy in their life cycle. This work quantifies the difference between the production-based (territorial) and consumption-based (global) nuclear energy use in the main 40 economies of the world (85% of the world's GDP) through the application of a multi-regional environmentally extended input–output model. The mismatch between the direct (territorial) and total (global) use of nuclear energy varies from −237% to 44% in the top economies. From a consumption-based viewpoint, 10 out of the 40 countries reduced the per-capita use of nuclear energy in the period 1995–2009, and 7 when following a production-based approach. The per-capita nuclear energy use could differ in up to 26.2 GJ/inhabitant·year, depending on whether the assessment is consumption or production based. It was also found that around 3.5% of the world's nuclear energy production is trade-embodied and that this amount is growing along with the global production of nuclear energy. Our findings might help to develop more effective environmental regulations worldwide. - Highlights: • Global and territorial nuclear energy could differ up to 237% in the main economies. • Trade-embodied nuclear energy has increased from 1.4% to 2.5% in 15 years. • Nuclear energy production has rised in tandem with trade-embodied nuclear energy. • Nuclear production decrease in 7 countries does not counteract the increase in others.

  14. Estimation of the contribution of exports to the provincial economy: an analysis based on China's multi-regional input-output tables.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Sanmang; Li, Shantong; Lei, Yalin

    2016-01-01

    This paper developed an estimation model for the contribution of exports to a country's regional economy based on the Chenery-Moses model and conducted an empirical analysis using China's multi-regional input-output tables for 1997, 2002, and 2007. The results indicated that China's national exports make significantly different contributions to the provincial economy in various regions, with the greatest contribution being observed in the eastern region and the smallest in the central region. The provinces are also subjected to significantly different export spillover effects. The boosting effect for the eastern provinces is primarily generated from local exports, whereas the western provinces primarily benefit from the export spillover effect from the eastern provinces. The eastern provinces, such as Guangdong, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, and Shanghai, are the primary sources of export spillover effects, and Guangdong is the largest source of export spillover effects for almost all of the provinces in China.

  15. Cultural similarities and differences in medical professionalism: a multi-region study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chandratilake, Madawa; McAleer, Sean; Gibson, John

    2012-03-01

    Over the last two decades, many medical educators have sought to define professionalism. Initial attempts to do so were focused on defining professionalism in a manner that allowed for universal agreement. This quest was later transformed into an effort to 'understand professionalism' as many researchers realised that professionalism is a social construct and is culture-sensitive. The determination of cultural differences in the understanding of professionalism, however, has been subject to very little research, possibly because of the practical difficulties of doing so. In this multi-region study, we illustrate the universal and culture-specific aspects of medical professionalism as it is perceived by medical practitioners. Forty-six professional attributes were identified by reviewing the literature. A total of 584 medical practitioners, representing the UK, Europe, North America and Asia, participated in a survey in which they indicated the importance of each of these attributes. We determined the 'essentialness' of each attribute in different geographic regions using the content validity index, supplemented with kappa statistics. With acceptable levels of consensus, all regional groups identified 29 attributes as 'essential', thereby indicating the universality of these professional attributes, and six attributes as non-essential. The essentialness of the rest varied by regional group. This study has helped to identify regional similarities and dissimilarities in understandings of professionalism, most of which can be explained by cultural differences in line with the theories of cultural dimensions and cultural value. However, certain dissonances among regions may well be attributable to socio-economic factors. Some of the responses appear to be counter-cultural and demonstrate practitioners' keenness to overcome cultural barriers in order to provide better patient care. © Blackwell Publishing Ltd 2012.

  16. Analysis of Tourism Resource Dependency on Collaboration among Local Governments in the Multi-Regional Tourism Development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ha Dong-Won

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study was to derive the multidimensional attributes of resource dependency of local governments in multi-regional tourism development. The questionnaire was designed based on resource dependence theory and related literature, and five factors of resource dependency were derived by analysis of the questionnaire for the civil servants who participated in the Jirisan area tourism development project which is a representative multi-regional tourism development project of Korea. The measured values of the derived possession, importance, discretion, alternative, and connection were found in various ways according to the project characteristics such as project scale and visitors in the Jirisan area tourism development project. This shows that a variety of variables have an effect on resource dependency.

  17. Carbon and energy footprints of electric delivery trucks:a hybrid multi-regional input-output life cycle assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Zhao, Yang; Onat, Nuri Cihat; Küçükvar, Murat; Tatari, Ömer

    2016-01-01

    Due to frequent stop-and-go operation and long idling periods when driving in congested urban areas, the electrification of commercial delivery trucks has become an interesting topic nationwide. In this study, environmental impacts of various alternative delivery trucks including battery electric, diesel, diesel-electric hybrid, and compressed natural gas trucks are analyzed. A novel life cycle assessment method, an environmentally-extended multi-region input-output analysis, is utilized to c...

  18. Extensions to the energy system GMM model: An overview

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barreto, L.; Kypreos, S.

    2006-09-01

    This report describes recent extensions to the energy-systems GMM (Global Multiregional MARKAL) model undertaken by the Energy Economics Group (EEG) of the Paul Scherrer Institute (PSI) in Switzerland (hereon referred to as PSI-EEG) in the context of the SAPIENTIA project sponsored by the European Commission (DG Research) and the Swiss National Centre for Competence in Research on Climate (NCCR-Climate). GMM is a multi-regional 'bottom-up' energy-systems optimization model that endogenizes technology learning. The model has been developed and is used at PSI-EEG. The main extensions undertaken here concern the incorporation of a clusters approach to technology learning, the introduction of an improved representation of the transportation sector with emphasis on the passenger sub-sector and the implementation of marginal abatement curves for CH 4 and N 2 O, two main non-CO 2 greenhouse gases. Also, a linear representation of the atmospheric concentration of CO 2 , CH 4 and N 2 O has been included. Other changes are related to the inclusion of additional technologies for production of synthetic fuels (hydrogen and Fischer- Tropsch liquids) and the inclusion of CO 2 capture in fossil-based and biomass-based hydrogen production. Several of the developments described here follow the work of Turton and Barreto (2004, 2006) for the ERIS model at the Environmentally Compatible Energy Strategies (ECS) Program of IIASA. The remainder of this report is organized as follows. Section 2 describes the basic structure of the GMM model, the main assumptions for the scenario developed and the basic approach to endogenize technology learning in the model and examine the effects of R+D and D+D programs. Section 3 discusses the implementation of technology clusters and describes the key components chosen here. Section 4 presents the improvements to the transportation sector with emphasis on the passenger car subsector. Section 5 briefly describes the new technologies for synthetic fuel

  19. Estimating raw material equivalents on a macro-level: comparison of multi-regional input-output analysis and hybrid LCI-IO.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schoer, Karl; Wood, Richard; Arto, Iñaki; Weinzettel, Jan

    2013-12-17

    The mass of material consumed by a population has become a useful proxy for measuring environmental pressure. The "raw material equivalents" (RME) metric of material consumption addresses the issue of including the full supply chain (including imports) when calculating national or product level material impacts. The RME calculation suffers from data availability, however, as quantitative data on production practices along the full supply chain (in different regions) is required. Hence, the RME is currently being estimated by three main approaches: (1) assuming domestic technology in foreign economies, (2) utilizing region-specific life-cycle inventories (in a hybrid framework), and (3) utilizing multi-regional input-output (MRIO) analysis to explicitly cover all regions of the supply chain. While the first approach has been shown to give inaccurate results, this paper focuses on the benefits and costs of the latter two approaches. We analyze results from two key (MRIO and hybrid) projects modeling raw material equivalents, adjusting the models in a stepwise manner in order to quantify the effects of individual conceptual elements. We attempt to isolate the MRIO gap, which denotes the quantitative impact of calculating the RME of imports by an MRIO approach instead of the hybrid model, focusing on the RME of EU external trade imports. While, the models give quantitatively similar results, differences become more pronounced when tracking more detailed material flows. We assess the advantages and disadvantages of the two approaches and look forward to ways to further harmonize data and approaches.

  20. SubClonal Hierarchy Inference from Somatic Mutations: Automatic Reconstruction of Cancer Evolutionary Trees from Multi-region Next Generation Sequencing.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Noushin Niknafs

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Recent improvements in next-generation sequencing of tumor samples and the ability to identify somatic mutations at low allelic fractions have opened the way for new approaches to model the evolution of individual cancers. The power and utility of these models is increased when tumor samples from multiple sites are sequenced. Temporal ordering of the samples may provide insight into the etiology of both primary and metastatic lesions and rationalizations for tumor recurrence and therapeutic failures. Additional insights may be provided by temporal ordering of evolving subclones--cellular subpopulations with unique mutational profiles. Current methods for subclone hierarchy inference tightly couple the problem of temporal ordering with that of estimating the fraction of cancer cells harboring each mutation. We present a new framework that includes a rigorous statistical hypothesis test and a collection of tools that make it possible to decouple these problems, which we believe will enable substantial progress in the field of subclone hierarchy inference. The methods presented here can be flexibly combined with methods developed by others addressing either of these problems. We provide tools to interpret hypothesis test results, which inform phylogenetic tree construction, and we introduce the first genetic algorithm designed for this purpose. The utility of our framework is systematically demonstrated in simulations. For most tested combinations of tumor purity, sequencing coverage, and tree complexity, good power (≥ 0.8 can be achieved and Type 1 error is well controlled when at least three tumor samples are available from a patient. Using data from three published multi-region tumor sequencing studies of (murine small cell lung cancer, acute myeloid leukemia, and chronic lymphocytic leukemia, in which the authors reconstructed subclonal phylogenetic trees by manual expert curation, we show how different configurations of our tools can

  1. SubClonal Hierarchy Inference from Somatic Mutations: Automatic Reconstruction of Cancer Evolutionary Trees from Multi-region Next Generation Sequencing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niknafs, Noushin; Beleva-Guthrie, Violeta; Naiman, Daniel Q; Karchin, Rachel

    2015-10-01

    Recent improvements in next-generation sequencing of tumor samples and the ability to identify somatic mutations at low allelic fractions have opened the way for new approaches to model the evolution of individual cancers. The power and utility of these models is increased when tumor samples from multiple sites are sequenced. Temporal ordering of the samples may provide insight into the etiology of both primary and metastatic lesions and rationalizations for tumor recurrence and therapeutic failures. Additional insights may be provided by temporal ordering of evolving subclones--cellular subpopulations with unique mutational profiles. Current methods for subclone hierarchy inference tightly couple the problem of temporal ordering with that of estimating the fraction of cancer cells harboring each mutation. We present a new framework that includes a rigorous statistical hypothesis test and a collection of tools that make it possible to decouple these problems, which we believe will enable substantial progress in the field of subclone hierarchy inference. The methods presented here can be flexibly combined with methods developed by others addressing either of these problems. We provide tools to interpret hypothesis test results, which inform phylogenetic tree construction, and we introduce the first genetic algorithm designed for this purpose. The utility of our framework is systematically demonstrated in simulations. For most tested combinations of tumor purity, sequencing coverage, and tree complexity, good power (≥ 0.8) can be achieved and Type 1 error is well controlled when at least three tumor samples are available from a patient. Using data from three published multi-region tumor sequencing studies of (murine) small cell lung cancer, acute myeloid leukemia, and chronic lymphocytic leukemia, in which the authors reconstructed subclonal phylogenetic trees by manual expert curation, we show how different configurations of our tools can identify either a single

  2. Multi-Regional Input-Output (MRIO Study of the Provincial Ecological Footprints and Domestic Embodied Footprints Traded among China’s 30 Provinces

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Decun Wu

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Rapid development in China has led to imbalances and inequities of ecological resources among the provinces and regions. In this study, an environmentally extended multi-regional input-output (MRIO model was used to analyze the imbalances, inequities and pressures of the ecological footprints (EF of China’s 30 provinces in 2007. In addition, by decomposing the total product consumption coefficients, we calculated the net embodied EF of the flows among the provinces by the total amount, land type and sector. The results showed that most provinces presented EF deficits. Significant differences were observed between the ecological pressure in consumption (EPC and ecological pressure in production (EPP for each province because of the net embodied EF trade; the EPCs of Shanghai (15.16, Beijing (7.81 and Tianjin (7.81 were the largest and presented descending EPPs, whereas the EPCs of Heilongjiang (0.98, Hebei (0.98, Xinjiang (0.98 and Guangxi (0.98 were under the threshold value (1 and presented ascending EPPs. The carbon footprint in the secondary sector was the main embodied EF of the flows among the provinces responsible for inequities. Finally, based on the various conditions of the provinces in different geographical regions, we have provided suggestions for regionally balanced development that can maintain the EPP and EPC values under the threshold for each province.

  3. Extending the Multi Regional Input-Output framework to labor related impacts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hardadi, Gilang; Pizzol, Massimo

    2017-01-01

    -O framework to social impacts. These challenges are addressed in this study where the Exiobase database was extended with new data on five quantitative indicators available from the International Labor Organization: employment; working hours; salary; occupational accident cases; and unemployment....... This required modeling steps, such as the disaggregation of data from sector to product group level, and filling the data gaps for missing countries by primary data collection or interpolation. A characterization step where indicator values are converted into social impacts on human productivity and human well...

  4. TRITON, 3-D Multi-Region Neutron Diffusion Burnup with Criticality Search

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1974-01-01

    1 - Nature of physical problem solved: TRITON is a multigroup diffusion depletion program in three dimensions (x,y,z). In addition to the straight K eff calculation, three types of criticality searches are possible - diluted control isotope search, region-wise smeared control isotope search, region-wise smeared control isotope search, region-wise smeared control isotope boundary search (the control isotope can be smeared over one region or over a group of regions called a control bank). The depletion equations are solved region-wise. More than one microscopic cross section library can be used in the various regions of the reactor. The same is true for self-shielding factors. Such sets of data can be changed at pre-determined time steps. 2 - Method of solution: The mathematical model employed for the solution of the finite difference equations, which is derived from a seven-point approximation of diffusion equations, is an on-line Chebyshev semi- iterative method. 3 - Restrictions on the complexity of the problem: Maximum number of: library sets: 1; self-shielding sets: 10; compositions: 100; self-shielding coefficients: 6000; groups: 10; fuel isotopes: 30; fission products: 29; isotopes: 50; burnable isotopes: 40; control banks: 100; mesh points: 15000; regions: 400; time steps: 100; control areas: 100; small time steps: 200; elements in the control list: 400; x planes: 100; y planes: 100; z planes: 100

  5. Low level ionizing radiation and human mortality: multi-regional epidemiological studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hickey, R.J.; Bowers, E.J.; Spence, D.E.; Zemel, B.S.; Clelland, A.B.; Clelland, R.C.

    1981-01-01

    Analyses of relationships involving environmental chemicals, background radiation, and mortality rates for diseases of the heart and several cancer categories are presented. Bivariate correlation coefficients between radiation and mortality rate were significantly negative for cancer of the lung and respiratory organs, cancer of the buccal cavity and pharynx, cancer of the digestive organs and peritoneum, total cancer and diseases of the heart. Only the correlation coefficient between background radiation and leukemia-aleukemia was positive, and that not significantly positive. Initial multivariate statistical studies support the bivariate results in that all significant regression terms that represent background radiation have been negative. Background radiation level was not a significant predictor for leukemia-aleukemia mortality rate when examined without regard to age. This preliminary work suggests that any health effects of background radiation on the diseases studied do not exceed in magnitude those of environmental chemicals. It also suggests that models implying important long-term deleterious effects of low levels of ionizing radiation on humans may be invalid. (author)

  6. Soft-linking energy systems and GIS models to investigate spatial hydrogen infrastructure development in a low-carbon UK energy system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Strachan, Neil; Hughes, Nick; Balta-Ozkan, Nazmiye; McGeevor, Kate; Joffe, David

    2009-01-01

    This paper describes an innovative modelling approach focusing on linking spatial (GIS) modelling of hydrogen (H 2 ) supply, demands and infrastructures, anchored within a economy-wide energy systems model (MARKAL). The UK government is legislating a groundbreaking climate change mitigation target for a 60% CO 2 reduction by 2050, and has identified H 2 infrastructures and technologies as potentially playing a major role, notably in the transport sector. An exploratory set of linked GIS-MARKAL model scenarios generate a range of nuanced insights including spatial matching of supply and demand for optimal zero-carbon H 2 deployment, a crucial finding on successive clustering of demand centres to enable economies of scale in H 2 supply and distribution, the competitiveness of imported liquid H 2 and of liquid H 2 distribution, and sectoral competition for coal with carbon sequestration between electricity and H 2 production under economy-wide CO 2 constraints. (author)

  7. Brief Communication: CATALYST - a multi-regional stakeholder Think Tank for fostering capacity development in disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Terwisscha van Scheltinga, C.T.H.M.; Hare, M.P.; Bers, van C.; Keur, van der P.

    2014-01-01

    This brief communication presents the work and objectives of the CATALYST project on "Capacity Development for Hazard Risk Reduction and Adaptation" funded by the European Commission (October 2011–September 2013). CATALYST set up a multi-regional think tank covering four regions (Central America and

  8. Development and application of dynamic hybrid multi-region inventory analysis for macro-level environmental policy analysis. A case study on climate policy in Taiwan

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chao, C.-W.; Heijungs, R.

    2013-01-01

    We develop a novel inventory method called Dynamic Hybrid Multi-Region Inventory analysis (DHMRI), which integrates the EEMRIOA and Integrated Hybrid LCA and applies time-dependent environmental intervention information for inventory analysis. Consequently, DHMRI is able to quantify the change in

  9. OpenStack Swift as Multi-Region Eventual Consistency Storage for ownCloud Primary Storage

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN. Geneva

    2014-01-01

    As more users adopt AARNet’s CloudStor Plus offering within Australia, interim solutions deployed to overcome failures of various distributed replicated storage technologies haven’t kept pace with the growth in data volume. AARNet’s original design goal of user proximal data storage, combined with national and even international data replication for redundancy reasons continues to be a key driver for design choices. AARNet’s national network is over 90ms from end to end, and accommodating this has been a key issue with numerous software solutions, hindering attempts to provide both original design goals in a reliable real-time manner. With the addition of features to the ownCloud software allowing primary data storage on OpenStack Swift, AARNet has chosen to deploy Swift in a nation spanning multi-region ring to take advantage of Swift’s eventual consistency capabilities and the local region quorum functionality for fast writes. The scaling capability of Swift resolves the twin problems of geogr...

  10. Economic Globalization and Interregional Agglomeration in a Multi-Country and Multi-Regional Neoclassical Growth Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei-Bin Zhang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available El objetivo de este artículo es generalizar el conocido modelo de Uzawa de dos sectores para una economía nacional para su aplicación en contextos globales con muchos países y muchas regiones dentro de cada país. Se estudia el desarrollo económico internacional e interregional a través de un modelo de equilibrio general donde se considera la acumulación de riqueza, el intercambio de recursos y la estructura económica bajo los supuestos de maximización de beneficios y utilidad y competencia perfecta. Para ello se aplica el modelo alternativo de Zhang sobre el comportamiento de los hogares simulándolo para un contexto multi-país y multi-región en una economía global, identificando la existencia del equilibrio y confirmando la estabilidad del mismo. Adicionalmente, se realiza un análisis comparativo dinámico para la productividad total de los factores, tanto del sector industrial como del terciario en cada región, así como de la propensión del ahorro, la asignación regional de recursos, la propensión al consumo de los hogares y los efectos de la población.

  11. Dynamic clustering scheme based on the coordination of management and control in multi-layer and multi-region intelligent optical network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niu, Xiaoliang; Yuan, Fen; Huang, Shanguo; Guo, Bingli; Gu, Wanyi

    2011-12-01

    A Dynamic clustering scheme based on coordination of management and control is proposed to reduce network congestion rate and improve the blocking performance of hierarchical routing in Multi-layer and Multi-region intelligent optical network. Its implement relies on mobile agent (MA) technology, which has the advantages of efficiency, flexibility, functional and scalability. The paper's major contribution is to adjust dynamically domain when the performance of working network isn't in ideal status. And the incorporation of centralized NMS and distributed MA control technology migrate computing process to control plane node which releases the burden of NMS and improves process efficiently. Experiments are conducted on Multi-layer and multi-region Simulation Platform for Optical Network (MSPON) to assess the performance of the scheme.

  12. Measuring the environmental sustainability performance of global supply chains: A multi-regional input-output analysis for carbon, sulphur oxide and water footprints.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Acquaye, Adolf; Feng, Kuishuang; Oppon, Eunice; Salhi, Said; Ibn-Mohammed, Taofeeq; Genovese, Andrea; Hubacek, Klaus

    2017-02-01

    Measuring the performance of environmentally sustainable supply chains instead of chain constitute has become a challenge despite the convergence of the underlining principles of sustainable supply chain management. This challenge is exacerbated by the fact that supply chains are inherently dynamic and complex and also because multiple measures can be used to characterize performances. By identifying some of the critical issues in the literature regarding performance measurements, this paper contributes to the existing body of literature by adopting an environmental performance measurement approach for economic sectors. It uses economic sectors and evaluates them on a sectoral level in specific countries as well as part of the Global Value Chain based on the established multi-regional input-output (MRIO) modeling framework. The MRIO model has been used to calculate direct and indirect (that is supply chain or upstream) environmental effects such as CO 2 , SO 2 , biodiversity, water consumption and pollution to name just a few of the applications. In this paper we use MRIO analysis to calculate emissions and resource consumption intensities and footprints, direct and indirect impacts, and net emission flows between countries. These are exemplified by using carbon emissions, sulphur oxide emissions and water use in two highly polluting industries; Electricity production and Chemical industry in 33 countries, including the EU-27, Brazil, India and China, the USA, Canada and Japan from 1995 to 2009. Some of the highlights include: On average, direct carbon emissions in the electricity sector across all 27 member states of the EU was estimated to be 1368 million tons and indirect carbon emissions to be 470.7 million tons per year representing 25.6% of the EU-27 total carbon emissions related to this sector. It was also observed that from 2004, sulphur oxide emissions intensities in electricity production in India and China have remained relatively constant at about 62

  13. Analysis of the energy and environmental effects of green car deployment by an integrating energy system model with a forecasting model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Duk Hee; Park, Sang Yong; Hong, Jong Chul; Choi, Sang Jin; Kim, Jong Wook

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: ► A new methodology for improving energy system analysis models was proposed. ► The MARKAL model was integrated with the diffusion model. ► The new methodology was applied to green car technology. ► The ripple effect of green car technology on the energy system can be analyzed. -- Abstract: By 2020, Korea has set itself the challenging target of reducing nationwide greenhouse gas emissions by 30%, more than the BAU (Business as Usual) scenario, as the implementation goal required to achieve the new national development paradigm of green growth. To achieve such a target, it is necessary to diffuse innovative technologies with the capacity to drastically reduce greenhouse gas emissions. To that end, the ripple effect of diffusing innovative technologies on the energy and environment must be quantitatively analyzed using an energy system analysis model such as the MARKAL (Market Allocation) model. However, energy system analysis models based on an optimization methodology have certain limitations in that a technology with superior cost competitiveness dominates the whole market and non-cost factors cannot be considered. Therefore, this study proposes a new methodology for overcoming problems associated with the use of MARKAL models, by interfacing with a forecasting model based on the discrete-choice model. The new methodology was applied to green car technology to verify its usefulness and to study the ripple effects of green car technology on greenhouse gas reduction. The results of this study can be used as a reference when establishing a strategy for effectively reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the transportation sector, and could be of assistance to future studies using the energy system analysis model.

  14. Study on the optimization allocation of wind-solar in power system based on multi-region production simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xu Zhicheng

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, a power supply optimization model is proposed. The model takes the minimum fossil energy consumption as the target, considering the output characteristics of the conventional power supply and the renewable power supply. The optimal capacity ratio of wind-solar in the power supply under various constraints is calculated, and the interrelation between conventional power supply and renewable energy is analyzed in the system of high proportion renewable energy integration. Using the model, we can provide scientific guidance for the coordinated and orderly development of renewable energy and conventional power sources.

  15. visPIG--a web tool for producing multi-region, multi-track, multi-scale plots of genetic data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthew Scales

    Full Text Available We present VISual Plotting Interface for Genetics (visPIG; http://vispig.icr.ac.uk, a web application to produce multi-track, multi-scale, multi-region plots of genetic data. visPIG has been designed to allow users not well versed with mathematical software packages and/or programming languages such as R, Matlab®, Python, etc., to integrate data from multiple sources for interpretation and to easily create publication-ready figures. While web tools such as the UCSC Genome Browser or the WashU Epigenome Browser allow custom data uploads, such tools are primarily designed for data exploration. This is also true for the desktop-run Integrative Genomics Viewer (IGV. Other locally run data visualisation software such as Circos require significant computer skills of the user. The visPIG web application is a menu-based interface that allows users to upload custom data tracks and set track-specific parameters. Figures can be downloaded as PDF or PNG files. For sensitive data, the underlying R code can also be downloaded and run locally. visPIG is multi-track: it can display many different data types (e.g association, functional annotation, intensity, interaction, heat map data,…. It also allows annotation of genes and other custom features in the plotted region(s. Data tracks can be plotted individually or on a single figure. visPIG is multi-region: it supports plotting multiple regions, be they kilo- or megabases apart or even on different chromosomes. Finally, visPIG is multi-scale: a sub-region of particular interest can be 'zoomed' in. We describe the various features of visPIG and illustrate its utility with examples. visPIG is freely available through http://vispig.icr.ac.uk under a GNU General Public License (GPLv3.

  16. Hydrogen and Biofuels - A Modeling Analysis of Competing Energy Carriers for Western Europe

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Guel, Timur; Kypreos, Socrates; Barreto, Leonardo

    2007-07-01

    This paper deals with the prospects of hydrogen and biofuels as energy carriers in the Western European transportation sector. The assessment is done by combining the US hydrogen analysis H2A models for the design of hydrogen production and delivery chains, and the Western European Hydrogen Markal Model EHM with a detailed representation of biofuels, and the European electricity and transportation sector. The paper derives policy recommendations to support the market penetration of hydrogen and biofuels, and investigates learning interactions between the different energy carriers. (auth)

  17. Multi-region approach to free-boundary three-dimensional tokamak equilibria and resistive wall instabilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferraro, N. M.; Jardin, S. C.; Lao, L. L.; Shephard, M. S.; Zhang, F.

    2016-05-01

    Free-boundary 3D tokamak equilibria and resistive wall instabilities are calculated using a new resistive wall model in the two-fluid M3D-C1 code. In this model, the resistive wall and surrounding vacuum region are included within the computational domain. This implementation contrasts with the method typically used in fluid codes in which the resistive wall is treated as a boundary condition on the computational domain boundary and has the advantage of maintaining purely local coupling of mesh elements. This new capability is used to simulate perturbed, free-boundary non-axisymmetric equilibria; the linear evolution of resistive wall modes; and the linear and nonlinear evolution of axisymmetric vertical displacement events (VDEs). Calculated growth rates for a resistive wall mode with arbitrary wall thickness are shown to agree well with the analytic theory. Equilibrium and VDE calculations are performed in diverted tokamak geometry, at physically realistic values of dissipation, and with resistive walls of finite width. Simulations of a VDE disruption extend into the current-quench phase, in which the plasma becomes limited by the first wall, and strong currents are observed to flow in the wall, in the SOL, and from the plasma to the wall.

  18. Multi-region approach to free-boundary three-dimensional tokamak equilibria and resistive wall instabilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ferraro, N. M., E-mail: nferraro@pppl.gov; Lao, L. L. [General Atomics, La Jolla, California 92186 (United States); Jardin, S. C. [Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory, Princeton, New Jersey 08543 (United States); Shephard, M. S.; Zhang, F. [Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Troy, New York 12180 (United States)

    2016-05-15

    Free-boundary 3D tokamak equilibria and resistive wall instabilities are calculated using a new resistive wall model in the two-fluid M3D-C1 code. In this model, the resistive wall and surrounding vacuum region are included within the computational domain. This implementation contrasts with the method typically used in fluid codes in which the resistive wall is treated as a boundary condition on the computational domain boundary and has the advantage of maintaining purely local coupling of mesh elements. This new capability is used to simulate perturbed, free-boundary non-axisymmetric equilibria; the linear evolution of resistive wall modes; and the linear and nonlinear evolution of axisymmetric vertical displacement events (VDEs). Calculated growth rates for a resistive wall mode with arbitrary wall thickness are shown to agree well with the analytic theory. Equilibrium and VDE calculations are performed in diverted tokamak geometry, at physically realistic values of dissipation, and with resistive walls of finite width. Simulations of a VDE disruption extend into the current-quench phase, in which the plasma becomes limited by the first wall, and strong currents are observed to flow in the wall, in the SOL, and from the plasma to the wall.

  19. Estudio de alternativas para el mejoramiento de la calidad del aire en el municipio de itagüí, resultado de un análisis bajo el esquema de análisis energía ambiente economía con el modelo markal y la evaluación de metas.

    OpenAIRE

    BUILES JARAMILLO, LUIS ALEJANDRO; FRANCO, MARIA CRISTINA; RAVE, CLAUDIA C.

    2010-01-01

    Enmarcado en una propuesta metodológica para la formulación de lineamientos de acción para el mejoramiento de la calidad del aire en el Municipio de Itagüí, se emplea un modelo de optimización multi-periodo, basado en programación lineal, del tipo Energía-Ambiente-Economía (MARKAL-estándar) y una metodología de Evaluación de metas normativas, para el análisis prospectivo de alternativas integrales de intervención en los sectores industria, transporte y de apoyo para la evaluación de normativa...

  20. SU-C-BRA-01: Interactive Auto-Segmentation for Bowel in Online Adaptive MRI-Guided Radiation Therapy by Using a Multi-Region Labeling Algorithm

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lu, Y; Chen, I; Kashani, R; Wan, H; Maughan, N; Muccigrosso, D; Parikh, P

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: In MRI-guided online adaptive radiation therapy, re-contouring of bowel is time-consuming and can impact the overall time of patients on table. The study aims to auto-segment bowel on volumetric MR images by using an interactive multi-region labeling algorithm. Methods: 5 Patients with locally advanced pancreatic cancer underwent fractionated radiotherapy (18–25 fractions each, total 118 fractions) on an MRI-guided radiation therapy system with a 0.35 Tesla magnet and three Co-60 sources. At each fraction, a volumetric MR image of the patient was acquired when the patient was in the treatment position. An interactive two-dimensional multi-region labeling technique based on graph cut solver was applied on several typical MRI images to segment the large bowel and small bowel, followed by a shape based contour interpolation for generating entire bowel contours along all image slices. The resulted contours were compared with the physician’s manual contouring by using metrics of Dice coefficient and Hausdorff distance. Results: Image data sets from the first 5 fractions of each patient were selected (total of 25 image data sets) for the segmentation test. The algorithm segmented the large and small bowel effectively and efficiently. All bowel segments were successfully identified, auto-contoured and matched with manual contours. The time cost by the algorithm for each image slice was within 30 seconds. For large bowel, the calculated Dice coefficients and Hausdorff distances (mean±std) were 0.77±0.07 and 13.13±5.01mm, respectively; for small bowel, the corresponding metrics were 0.73±0.08and 14.15±4.72mm, respectively. Conclusion: The preliminary results demonstrated the potential of the proposed algorithm in auto-segmenting large and small bowel on low field MRI images in MRI-guided adaptive radiation therapy. Further work will be focused on improving its segmentation accuracy and lessening human interaction.

  1. SU-C-BRA-01: Interactive Auto-Segmentation for Bowel in Online Adaptive MRI-Guided Radiation Therapy by Using a Multi-Region Labeling Algorithm

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lu, Y; Chen, I; Kashani, R; Wan, H; Maughan, N; Muccigrosso, D; Parikh, P [Washington University School of Medicine, Saint Louis, MO (United States)

    2016-06-15

    Purpose: In MRI-guided online adaptive radiation therapy, re-contouring of bowel is time-consuming and can impact the overall time of patients on table. The study aims to auto-segment bowel on volumetric MR images by using an interactive multi-region labeling algorithm. Methods: 5 Patients with locally advanced pancreatic cancer underwent fractionated radiotherapy (18–25 fractions each, total 118 fractions) on an MRI-guided radiation therapy system with a 0.35 Tesla magnet and three Co-60 sources. At each fraction, a volumetric MR image of the patient was acquired when the patient was in the treatment position. An interactive two-dimensional multi-region labeling technique based on graph cut solver was applied on several typical MRI images to segment the large bowel and small bowel, followed by a shape based contour interpolation for generating entire bowel contours along all image slices. The resulted contours were compared with the physician’s manual contouring by using metrics of Dice coefficient and Hausdorff distance. Results: Image data sets from the first 5 fractions of each patient were selected (total of 25 image data sets) for the segmentation test. The algorithm segmented the large and small bowel effectively and efficiently. All bowel segments were successfully identified, auto-contoured and matched with manual contours. The time cost by the algorithm for each image slice was within 30 seconds. For large bowel, the calculated Dice coefficients and Hausdorff distances (mean±std) were 0.77±0.07 and 13.13±5.01mm, respectively; for small bowel, the corresponding metrics were 0.73±0.08and 14.15±4.72mm, respectively. Conclusion: The preliminary results demonstrated the potential of the proposed algorithm in auto-segmenting large and small bowel on low field MRI images in MRI-guided adaptive radiation therapy. Further work will be focused on improving its segmentation accuracy and lessening human interaction.

  2. Systems analysis on the condition of market penetration for hydrogen technologies using linear programming model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kato, K.; Ihara, S.

    1993-01-01

    Hydrogen is expected to be an important energy carrier, especially in the frame of global warming problem solution. The purpose of this study is to examine the condition of market penetration of hydrogen technologies in reducing CO 2 emissions. A multi-time-period linear programming model (MARKAL, Market Allocation)) is used to explore technology options and cost for meeting the energy demands while reducing CO 2 emissions from energy systems. The results show that hydrogen technologies become economical when CO 2 emissions are stringently constrained. 9 figs., 2 refs

  3. Development and application of dynamic hybrid multi-region inventory analysis for macro-level environmental policy analysis: a case study on climate policy in Taiwan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chao, Chia-Wei; Heijungs, Reinout; Ma, Hwong-wen

    2013-03-19

    We develop a novel inventory method called Dynamic Hybrid Multi-Region Inventory analysis (DHMRI), which integrates the EEMRIOA and Integrated Hybrid LCA and applies time-dependent environmental intervention information for inventory analysis. Consequently, DHMRI is able to quantify the change in the environmental footprint caused by a specific policy while taking structural changes and technological dynamics into consideration. DHMRI is applied to assess the change in the total CO2 emissions associated with the total final demand caused by the climate policy in Taiwan to demonstrate the practicality of this novel method. The evaluation reveals that the implementation of mitigation measures included in the existing climate policy, such as an enhancement in energy efficiency, promotion of renewable energy, and limitation of the growth of energy-intensive industries, will lead to a 28% increase in the total CO2 emissions and that the main driver is the export-oriented electronics industry. Moreover, a major increase in the total emissions is predicted to occur in Southeast Asia and China. The observations from the case study reveal that DHMRI is capable of overcoming the limitations of existing assessment tools at macro-level evaluation of environmental policies.

  4. A Multi-Region Magnetoimpedance-Based Bio-Analytical System for Ultrasensitive Simultaneous Determination of Cardiac Biomarkers Myoglobin and C-Reactive Protein.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Zhen; Wang, Huanhuan; Guo, Pengfei; Ding, Yuanyuan; Lei, Chong; Luo, Yongsong

    2018-06-01

    Cardiac biomarkers (CBs) are substances that appear in the blood when the heart is damaged or stressed. Measurements of the level of CBs can be used in course of diagnostics or monitoring the state of the health of group risk persons. A multi-region bio-analytical system (MRBAS) based on magnetoimpedance (MI) changes was proposed for ultrasensitive simultaneous detection of CBs myoglobin (Mb) and C-reactive protein (CRP). The microfluidic device was designed and developed using standard microfabrication techniques for their usage in different regions, which were pre-modified with specific antibody for specified detection. Mb and CRP antigens labels attached to commercial Dynabeads with selected concentrations were trapped in different detection regions. The MI response of the triple sensitive element was carefully evaluated in initial state and in the presence of biomarkers. The results showed that the MI-based bio-sensing system had high selectivity and sensitivity for detection of CBs. Compared with the control region, ultrasensitive detections of CRP and Mb were accomplished with the detection limits of 1.0 pg/mL and 0.1 pg/mL, respectively. The linear detection range contained low concentration detection area and high concentration detection area, which were 1 pg/mL⁻10 ng/mL, 10⁻100 ng/mL for CRP, and 0.1 pg/mL⁻1 ng/mL, 1 n/mL⁻80 ng/mL for Mb. The measurement technique presented here provides a new methodology for multi-target biomolecules rapid testing.

  5. Impact of Germany's energy transition on the Nordic power market – A market-based multi-region energy system model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zakeri, Behnam; Virasjoki, Vilma; Syri, Sanna

    2016-01-01

    -level benefits (social welfare) will improve in the Nordic region after Germany's Energiewende. However, this gain is not equally distributed among different Nordic countries and across different stakeholders. Furthermore, the Energiewende slightly increases carbon emissions from power and district heating (DH......) sectors, and reduces the flexibility in integration of VRE in some Nordic countries like Denmark. The direct interconnection of Norway and Germany through NordLink will contribute to the flexibility in wind integration in other Nordic countries, such as Denmark and Finland....

  6. The role of bioenergy in the UK's energy future formulation and modelling of long-term UK bioenergy scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jablonski, Sophie; Bauen, Ausilio; Strachan, Neil; Brand, Christian

    2010-01-01

    This paper explores the prospects and policy implications for bioenergy to contribute to a long-term sustainable UK energy system. The UK MARKAL technology-focused energy systems dynamic cost optimisation model - which has been used to quantify the costs and benefits of alternative energy strategies in UK policy making - is enhanced with detailed representation of bio-energy chains and end-uses. This provides an important advance in linking bioenergy expert-knowledge with a whole system modelling approach, in order to better understand the potential role of bioenergy in an evolving energy system. The new BIOSYS-MARKAL model is used to run four scenarios constructed along the pillars of UK energy policy objectives (low carbon and energy security). The results are analysed in terms of bioenergy resources use and bioenergy pathways penetration in different end use sectors. The main findings suggest that the complexity of different bioenergy pathways may have been overlooked in previous modelling exercises. A range of bioenergy pathways - notably bio-heat and biofuels for transport - may have a much wider potential role to play. The extent to which this potential is fulfilled will be further determined by resources availability, and market segment constraints, as well as policy measures to improve deployment. (author)

  7. Using the IEA ETSAP modelling tools for Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grohnheit, Poul Erik

    signed the agreement and contributed to some early annexes. This project is motivated by an invitation to participate in ETSAP Annex X, "Global Energy Systems and Common Analyses: Climate friendly, Secure and Productive Energy Systems" for the period 2005 to 2007. The main activity is semi......-annual workshops focusing on presentations of model analyses and use of the ETSAP' tools (the MARKAL/TIMES family of models). The project was also planned to benefit from the EU project ”NEEDS - New Energy Externalities Developments for Sustainability. ETSAP is contributing to a part of NEEDS that develops......, Environment and Health (CEEH), starting from January 2007. This report summarises the activities under ETSAP Annex X and related project, emphasising the development of modelling tools that will be useful for modelling the Danish energy system. It is also a status report for the development of a model...

  8. Estudio de alternativas para el mejoramiento de la calidad del aire en el municipio de Itagüí, resultado de un análisis bajo el esquema de análisis Energía Ambiente Economía con el modelo MARKAL y la Evaluación de metas.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    BUILES JARAMILLO LUIS ALEJANDRO

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available Enmarcado en una propuesta metodológica para la formulación de lineamientos de acción para el mejoramiento de la calidad del aire en el Municipio de Itagüí, se emplea un modelo de optimización multi-periodo, basado en programación lineal, del tipo Energía-Ambiente-Economía (MARKAL-estándar y una metodología de Evaluación de metas normativas, para el análisis prospectivo de alternativas integrales de intervención en los sectores industria, transporte y de apoyo para la evaluación de normativa territorial en el municipio de Itagüí. Los resultados ofrecen información e indicadores transversales a diferentes aspectos que configuran la problemática de la calidad del aire y aportan una herramienta útil para la integración de aspectos asociados al mejoramiento de la calidad del recurso en la planeación local. La metodología es replicable en otros municipios del Valle de Aburrá

  9. IEA-ETSAP TIMES models in Denmark. Preliminary edition

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Grohnheit, P.E.

    2011-03-15

    This report presents the project 'Danish participation in IEAETSAP, Annex XI, 2008-2010', which continued the Danish participation in ETSAP under Annex XI 'JOint STudies for New And Mitigated Energy Systems (JOSTNAMES): Climate friendly, Secure and Productive Energy Systems'. The main activity has been semi-annual workshops focusing on presentations of model analyses and use of the ETSAP tools (the MARKAL/TIMES family of models). Contributions to these workshops have been based on various collaborative projects within the EU research programmes and the Danish Centre for Environment, Energy and Health (CEEH). In addition, the DTU Climate Centre at Risoe, which was founded in the autumn of 2008, has taken part in the ETSAP workshops, and used the ETSAP model tools for projects, papers, and presentations, as well as for a Ph.D. project. (Author)

  10. Analysis of carbon mitigation technology to 2050 in Japan through integrated energy economic model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Komiyama, Ryoichi; Suzuki, Kengo; Nagatomi, Yu; Matsuo, Yuji; Suehiro, Shigeru

    2011-01-01

    This paper describes the outline of integrated energy economic model and calculated result concerning the outlook of energy and carbon dioxide emissions in Japan to 2050. The energy model developed in this paper is integrated one which consistently combines econometric model endogenously generating socio-economic outlook and bottom-up type technology model, MARKAL, identifying cost-minimizing optimal mix of various energy technologies. In reference scenario which imposes no carbon emissions constraint, CO 2 emission in 2050 will decrease by approximately 40% from the level of emissions in 2005. In carbon-constraints scenario, imposing emissions cap of 60% reduction by 2050 from the emissions in 2005, natural gas-fired power plant equipped with CCS and renewable energy are expected to expand its portion in power generation mix. In transportation sector on this scenario, clean energy vehicles such as electric vehicle (EV) and hydrogen fuel cell vehicle (FCV) will be deployed and contribute to mitigate CO 2 emissions. (author)

  11. Accurate Solution of Multi-Region Continuum Biomolecule Electrostatic Problems Using the Linearized Poisson-Boltzmann Equation with Curved Boundary Elements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Altman, Michael D.; Bardhan, Jaydeep P.; White, Jacob K.; Tidor, Bruce

    2009-01-01

    We present a boundary-element method (BEM) implementation for accurately solving problems in biomolecular electrostatics using the linearized Poisson–Boltzmann equation. Motivating this implementation is the desire to create a solver capable of precisely describing the geometries and topologies prevalent in continuum models of biological molecules. This implementation is enabled by the synthesis of four technologies developed or implemented specifically for this work. First, molecular and accessible surfaces used to describe dielectric and ion-exclusion boundaries were discretized with curved boundary elements that faithfully reproduce molecular geometries. Second, we avoided explicitly forming the dense BEM matrices and instead solved the linear systems with a preconditioned iterative method (GMRES), using a matrix compression algorithm (FFTSVD) to accelerate matrix-vector multiplication. Third, robust numerical integration methods were employed to accurately evaluate singular and near-singular integrals over the curved boundary elements. Finally, we present a general boundary-integral approach capable of modeling an arbitrary number of embedded homogeneous dielectric regions with differing dielectric constants, possible salt treatment, and point charges. A comparison of the presented BEM implementation and standard finite-difference techniques demonstrates that for certain classes of electrostatic calculations, such as determining absolute electrostatic solvation and rigid-binding free energies, the improved convergence properties of the BEM approach can have a significant impact on computed energetics. We also demonstrate that the improved accuracy offered by the curved-element BEM is important when more sophisticated techniques, such as non-rigid-binding models, are used to compute the relative electrostatic effects of molecular modifications. In addition, we show that electrostatic calculations requiring multiple solves using the same molecular geometry

  12. Native Prairie Adaptive Management: a multi region adaptive approach to invasive plant management on Fish and Wildlife Service owned native prairies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gannon, Jill J.; Shaffer, Terry L.; Moore, Clinton T.

    2013-01-01

    Much of the native prairie managed by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) in the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of the northern Great Plains is extensively invaded by the introduced cool-season grasses, smooth brome (Bromus inermis) and Kentucky bluegrass (Poa pratensis). Management to suppress these invasive plants has had poor to inconsistent success. The central challenge to managers is selecting appropriate management actions in the face of biological and environmental uncertainties. In partnership with the FWS, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) developed an adaptive decision support framework to assist managers in selecting management actions under uncertainty and maximizing learning from management outcomes. This joint partnership is known as the Native Prairie Adaptive Management (NPAM) initiative. The NPAM decision framework is built around practical constraints faced by FWS refuge managers and includes identification of the management objective and strategies, analysis of uncertainty and construction of competing decision models, monitoring, and mechanisms for model feedback and decision selection. Nineteen FWS field stations, spanning four states of the PPR, have participated in the initiative. These FWS cooperators share a common management objective, available management strategies, and biological uncertainties. Though the scope is broad, the initiative interfaces with individual land managers who provide site-specific information and receive updated decision guidance that incorporates understanding gained from the collective experience of all cooperators. We describe the technical components of this approach, how the components integrate and inform each other, how data feedback from individual cooperators serves to reduce uncertainty across the whole region, and how a successful adaptive management project is coordinated and maintained on a large scale. During an initial scoping workshop, FWS cooperators developed a consensus management objective

  13. An analytic solution to the time-dependent first-daughter fission-product plateout problem for multi-region isothermal slug flow

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Durkee, J.W. Jr.; Lee, C.E.

    1985-01-01

    The time-dependent, axisymmetric, isothermal slug flow convective-diffusion equation with radioactive decay is solved analytically to predict the behavior of a first-daughter fission-product undergoing gaseous transport through multiple materials in a cylindrical pipe. The integration coefficients are determined using the Davidon variable metric minimization method. The behavior of fission-product material deposited on the conduit wall is described by a standard mass-transfer model. The time-dependent plateout rate behavior, determined previously for parent fission-product deposition, is again evident for daughter product plateout. Dominance of the daughter plateout by parent deposition characteristics is apparent. The determination of the daughter wall mass-transfer and diffusion coefficient using a least-squares analysis of measured data depends upon a reasonably low ratio of parent/daughter half-lives. This is illustrated with 137 Cs/ 137 Ba(=2x10 5 ) and 140 Ba/ 140 La(=7.6), where for 137 Cs/ 137 Ba the solution sensitivity to the 137 Ba deposition parameters is small and for 140 Ba/ 140 La a reasonable solution is readily obtained. (author)

  14. A Country-Specific Water Consumption Inventory Considering International Trade in Asian Countries Using a Multi-Regional Input-Output Table

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuya Ono

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Interest in the impacts of water use in the life cycle of products and services are increasing among various stakeholders. The water footprint is a tool to identify critical and effective points for reducing the impact of water use through the entire life cycle of products, services, and organizations. The purpose of this study was to develop a water consumption inventory database that focused on identifying of Asian water consumption using an input-output (IO framework. An Asia International Input-Output table (AIIO was applied in this study. The amount of water consumption required for agricultural products was estimated by modeling; for other sectors it was estimated from statistical reports. The intensities of direct water consumption in each sector were calculated by dividing the amount of water consumption by the domestic production. Based on the IO analysis using Leontief’s inverse matrix, the intensities of water consumption from cradle to gate were estimated for all goods and services. There was high intensity of water consumption in the primary industry sectors, together with a high dependency on rainwater as an input water source. The water consumption intensities generally showed a larger reduction in secondary sectors, in comparison with the tertiary sectors, due to the use of recycled water. There were differences between this study and previous studies due to the use of site-specific production data and the temporal resolution of crop production. By considering site-specific conditions, it is expected that the dataset developed here can be used for estimating the water footprint of products, services, and organizations in nine countries (Japan, South Korea, China, Taiwan, Thailand, the Philippines, Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, and USA.

  15. Multi region based image retrieval system

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    data mining, information theory, statistics and psychology. ∗ .... ground complication and independent of image size and orientation (Zhang 2007). ..... Figure 2. Significant regions: (a) the input image, (b) the primary significant region, (c) the ...

  16. Technology Learning Ratios in Global Energy Models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Varela, M.

    2001-01-01

    The process of introduction of a new technology supposes that while its production and utilisation increases, also its operation improves and its investment costs and production decreases. The accumulation of experience and learning of a new technology increase in parallel with the increase of its market share. This process is represented by the technological learning curves and the energy sector is not detached from this process of substitution of old technologies by new ones. The present paper carries out a brief revision of the main energy models that include the technology dynamics (learning). The energy scenarios, developed by global energy models, assume that the characteristics of the technologies are variables with time. But this trend is incorporated in a exogenous way in these energy models, that is to say, it is only a time function. This practice is applied to the cost indicators of the technology such as the specific investment costs or to the efficiency of the energy technologies. In the last years, the new concept of endogenous technological learning has been integrated within these global energy models. This paper examines the concept of technological learning in global energy models. It also analyses the technological dynamics of the energy system including the endogenous modelling of the process of technological progress. Finally, it makes a comparison of several of the most used global energy models (MARKAL, MESSAGE and ERIS) and, more concretely, about the use these models make of the concept of technological learning. (Author) 17 refs

  17. A multinational model for CO2 reduction: defining boundaries of future CO2 emissions in nine countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kram, Tom; Hill, Douglas.

    1996-01-01

    A need to make substantial future reductions in greenhouse gas emissions would require major changes in national energy systems. Nine industrialized countries have explored the technical boundaries of CO 2 emission restrictions during the next 40 to 50 years using comparable scenario assumptions and a standard model, MARKAL. Quantitative results for the countries are shown side by side in a set of energy maps that compare the least-cost evolution of the national energy systems by the main factors that contribute to CO 2 emissions. The ability to restrict future CO 2 emissions and the most cost-effective measures for doing so differ among the countries; an international agreement that would mandate substantial emission restrictions among countries by an equal percentage reduction is clearly impossible. The results are a first step toward a basis for allocating such international reductions, and the multinational process by which they were produced provides an example for further international greenhouse gas abatement costing studies. (Author)

  18. Characterizing the emission implications of future natural gas production and use in the U.S. and Rocky Mountain region: A scenario-based energy system modeling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    McLeod, Jeffrey

    The recent increase in U.S. natural gas production made possible through advancements in extraction techniques including hydraulic fracturing has transformed the U.S. energy supply landscape while raising questions regarding the balance of environmental impacts associated with natural gas production and use. Impact areas at issue include emissions of methane and criteria pollutants from natural gas production, alongside changes in emissions from increased use of natural gas in place of coal for electricity generation. In the Rocky Mountain region, these impact areas have been subject to additional scrutiny due to the high level of regional oil and gas production activity and concerns over its links to air quality. Here, the MARKAL (MArket ALlocation) least-cost energy system optimization model in conjunction with the EPA-MARKAL nine-region database has been used to characterize future regional and national emissions of CO 2, CH4, VOC, and NOx attributed to natural gas production and use in several sectors of the economy. The analysis is informed by comparing and contrasting a base case, business-as-usual scenario with scenarios featuring variations in future natural gas supply characteristics, constraints affecting the electricity generation mix, carbon emission reduction strategies and increased demand for natural gas in the transportation sector. Emission trends and their associated sensitivities are identified and contrasted between the Rocky Mountain region and the U.S. as a whole. The modeling results of this study illustrate the resilience of the short term greenhouse gas emission benefits associated with fuel switching from coal to gas in the electric sector, but also call attention to the long term implications of increasing natural gas production and use for emissions of methane and VOCs, especially in the Rocky Mountain region. This analysis can help to inform the broader discussion of the potential environmental impacts of future natural gas production

  19. Barriers to knowledge spillovers and regional convergence in an evolutionary model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Caniëls, M.C.J.; Verspagen, B.

    2001-01-01

    This paper will present a multi-region/multi-country model in which inter-regional knowledge spillovers determine the growth of regions. Key parameters in the model are the learning capability of a region and the rate of knowledge generation (R&D). The intensity of spillovers depends on geographical

  20. Introducing technology learning for energy technologies in a national CGE model through soft links to global and national energy models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martinsen, Thomas

    2011-01-01

    This paper describes a method to model the influence by global policy scenarios, particularly spillover of technology learning, on the energy service demand of the non-energy sectors of the national economy. It is exemplified by Norway. Spillover is obtained from the technology-rich global Energy Technology Perspective model operated by the International Energy Agency. It is provided to a national hybrid model where a national bottom-up Markal model carries forward spillover into a national top-down CGE model at a disaggregated demand category level. Spillover of technology learning from the global energy technology market will reduce national generation costs of energy carriers. This may in turn increase demand in the non-energy sectors of the economy because of the rebound effect. The influence of spillover on the Norwegian economy is most pronounced for the production level of industrial chemicals and for the demand for electricity for residential energy services. The influence is modest, however, because all existing electricity generating capacity is hydroelectric and thus compatible with the low emission policy scenario. In countries where most of the existing generating capacity must be replaced by nascent energy technologies or carbon captured and storage the influence on demand is expected to be more significant. - Highlights: → Spillover of global technology learning may be forwarded into a macroeconomic model. → The national electricity price differs significantly between the different global scenarios. → Soft-linking global and national models facilitate transparency in the technology learning effect chain.

  1. The DART general equilibrium model: A technical description

    OpenAIRE

    Springer, Katrin

    1998-01-01

    This paper provides a technical description of the Dynamic Applied Regional Trade (DART) General Equilibrium Model. The DART model is a recursive dynamic, multi-region, multi-sector computable general equilibrium model. All regions are fully specified and linked by bilateral trade flows. The DART model can be used to project economic activities, energy use and trade flows for each of the specified regions to simulate various trade policy as well as environmental policy scenarios, and to analy...

  2. Electricity consumption forecasting in Italy using linear regression models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bianco, Vincenzo; Manca, Oronzio; Nardini, Sergio [DIAM, Seconda Universita degli Studi di Napoli, Via Roma 29, 81031 Aversa (CE) (Italy)

    2009-09-15

    The influence of economic and demographic variables on the annual electricity consumption in Italy has been investigated with the intention to develop a long-term consumption forecasting model. The time period considered for the historical data is from 1970 to 2007. Different regression models were developed, using historical electricity consumption, gross domestic product (GDP), gross domestic product per capita (GDP per capita) and population. A first part of the paper considers the estimation of GDP, price and GDP per capita elasticities of domestic and non-domestic electricity consumption. The domestic and non-domestic short run price elasticities are found to be both approximately equal to -0.06, while long run elasticities are equal to -0.24 and -0.09, respectively. On the contrary, the elasticities of GDP and GDP per capita present higher values. In the second part of the paper, different regression models, based on co-integrated or stationary data, are presented. Different statistical tests are employed to check the validity of the proposed models. A comparison with national forecasts, based on complex econometric models, such as Markal-Time, was performed, showing that the developed regressions are congruent with the official projections, with deviations of {+-}1% for the best case and {+-}11% for the worst. These deviations are to be considered acceptable in relation to the time span taken into account. (author)

  3. Electricity consumption forecasting in Italy using linear regression models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bianco, Vincenzo; Manca, Oronzio; Nardini, Sergio

    2009-01-01

    The influence of economic and demographic variables on the annual electricity consumption in Italy has been investigated with the intention to develop a long-term consumption forecasting model. The time period considered for the historical data is from 1970 to 2007. Different regression models were developed, using historical electricity consumption, gross domestic product (GDP), gross domestic product per capita (GDP per capita) and population. A first part of the paper considers the estimation of GDP, price and GDP per capita elasticities of domestic and non-domestic electricity consumption. The domestic and non-domestic short run price elasticities are found to be both approximately equal to -0.06, while long run elasticities are equal to -0.24 and -0.09, respectively. On the contrary, the elasticities of GDP and GDP per capita present higher values. In the second part of the paper, different regression models, based on co-integrated or stationary data, are presented. Different statistical tests are employed to check the validity of the proposed models. A comparison with national forecasts, based on complex econometric models, such as Markal-Time, was performed, showing that the developed regressions are congruent with the official projections, with deviations of ±1% for the best case and ±11% for the worst. These deviations are to be considered acceptable in relation to the time span taken into account. (author)

  4. Modeling of long-term energy system of Japan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gotoh, Yoshitaka; Sato, Osamu; Tadokoro, Yoshihiro

    1999-07-01

    In order to analyze the future potential of reducing carbon dioxide emissions, the long-term energy system of Japan was modeled following the framework of the MARKAL model, and the database of energy technology characteristics was developed. First, a reference energy system was built by incorporating all important energy sources and technologies that will be available until the year 2050. This system consists of 25 primary energy sources, 33 technologies for electric power generation and/or low temperature heat production, 97 technologies for energy transformation, storage, and distribution, and 170 end-use technologies. Second, the database was developed for the characteristics of individual technologies in the system. The characteristic data consists of input and output of energy carriers, efficiency, availability, lifetime, investment cost, operation and maintenance cost, CO 2 emission coefficient, and others. Since a large number of technologies are included in the system, this report focuses modeling of a supply side, and involves the database of energy technologies other than for end-use purposes. (author)

  5. Technology Learning Ratios in Global Energy Models; Ratios de Aprendizaje Tecnologico en Modelos Energeticos Globales

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Varela, M.

    2001-07-01

    The process of introduction of a new technology supposes that while its production and utilisation increases, also its operation improves and its investment costs and production decreases. The accumulation of experience and learning of a new technology increase in parallel with the increase of its market share. This process is represented by the technological learning curves and the energy sector is not detached from this process of substitution of old technologies by new ones. The present paper carries out a brief revision of the main energy models that include the technology dynamics (learning). The energy scenarios, developed by global energy models, assume that the characteristics of the technologies are variables with time. But this tend is incorporated in a exogenous way in these energy models, that is to say, it is only a time function. This practice is applied to the cost indicators of the technology such as the specific investment costs or to the efficiency of the energy technologies. In the last years, the new concept of endogenous technological learning has been integrated within these global energy models. This paper examines the concept of technological learning in global energy models. It also analyses the technological dynamics of the energy systems including the endogenous modelling of the process of technological progress. Finally, it makes a comparison of several of the most used global energy models (MARKAL, MESSAGE and ERIS) and, more concretely, about the use these models make of the concept of technological learning. (Author) 17 refs.

  6. Technology learning in a small open economy-The systems, modelling and exploiting the learning effect

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martinsen, Thomas

    2011-01-01

    This paper reviews the characteristics of technology learning and discusses its application in energy system modelling in a global-local perspective. Its influence on the national energy system, exemplified by Norway, is investigated using a global and national Markal model. The dynamic nature of the learning system boundary and coupling between the national energy system and the global development and manufacturing system is elaborated. Some criteria important for modelling of spillover are suggested. Particularly, to ensure balance in global energy demand and supply and accurately reflect alternative global pathways spillover for all technologies as well as energy carrier cost/prices should be estimated under the same global scenario. The technology composition, CO 2 emissions and system cost in Norway up to 2050 exhibit sensitivity to spillover. Moreover, spillover may reduce both CO 2 emissions and total system cost. National energy system analysis of low carbon society should therefore consider technology development paths in global policy scenarios. Without the spillover from international deployment a domestic technology relies only on endogenous national learning. However, with high but realistic learning rates offshore floating wind may become cost-efficient even if initially deployed only in Norwegian niche markets. - Research highlights: → Spillover for all technologies should emanate from the same global scenario. → A global model is called for to estimate spillover.→ Spillover may reduce CO 2 emissions and the total system cost in a small open economy. → Off-shore floating wind may become cost-efficient in a national niche market.

  7. Development of integrated models for energy-economy systems analysis at JAERI

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yasukawa, Shigeru; Mankin, Shuichi; Sato, Osamu; Yonese, Hiromi

    1984-08-01

    This report, being a revision of the preprint for distribution to participants at IEA/ETSAP Workshop held, at JAERI, Tokyo, March 1984, describes the concept of the integrated models for energy-economy systems analysis now being carried out at JAERI. In this model system, there contains four different categories of computer codes. The first one is a series of computer codes named as E 3 -SD representatively, which are utilized to develop a dynamic scenario generation in a long-term energy economy evolution. The second one, of which the main constituents are the MARKAL, i.e. an optimal energy flow analizer, and the TRANS-I/O, i.e. a multi-sectoral economy analyzer, has been developed for the analysis of structural characteristics embodied in our energy-economy system. The third one is for a strategy analysis on nuclear power reactor installation and fuel cycle development, and its main constituent is the JALTES. The fourth one is for a cost-benefit-risk analysis including various kinds of data bases. As the model system being still under development, but the idea of application of it to such a problem as '' the role of the HTGR in the prospects of future energy supply'' is also explained in the report. (author)

  8. Modelling the effects of climate change on the energy system-A case study of Norway

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seljom, Pernille; Rosenberg, Eva; Fidje, Audun; Haugen, Jan Erik; Meir, Michaela; Rekstad, John; Jarlset, Thore

    2011-01-01

    The overall objective of this work is to identify the effects of climate change on the Norwegian energy system towards 2050. Changes in the future wind- and hydro-power resource potential, and changes in the heating and cooling demand are analysed to map the effects of climate change. The impact of climate change is evaluated with an energy system model, the MARKAL Norway model, to analyse the future cost optimal energy system. Ten climate experiments, based on five different global models and six emission scenarios, are used to cover the range of possible future climate scenarios and of these three experiments are used for detailed analyses. This study indicate that in Norway, climate change will reduce the heating demand, increase the cooling demand, have a limited impact on the wind power potential, and increase the hydro-power potential. The reduction of heating demand will be significantly higher than the increase of cooling demand, and thus the possible total direct consequence of climate change will be reduced energy system costs and lower electricity production costs. The investments in offshore wind and tidal power will be reduced and electric based vehicles will be profitable earlier. - Highlights: → Climate change will make an impact on the Norwegian energy system towards 2050. → An impact is lower Norwegian electricity production costs and increased electricity export. → Climate change gives earlier profitable investments in electric based vehicles. → Climate change reduces investments in offshore wind and tidal power.

  9. Business-as-Unusual: Existing policies in energy model baselines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Strachan, Neil

    2011-01-01

    Baselines are generally accepted as a key input assumption in long-term energy modelling, but energy models have traditionally been poor on identifying baselines assumptions. Notably, transparency on the current policy content of model baselines is now especially critical as long-term climate mitigation policies have been underway for a number of years. This paper argues that the range of existing energy and emissions policies are an integral part of any long-term baseline, and hence already represent a 'with-policy' baseline, termed here a Business-as-Unusual (BAuU). Crucially, existing energy policies are not a sunk effort; as impacts of existing policy initiatives are targeted at future years, they may be revised through iterative policy making, and their quantitative effectiveness requires ex-post verification. To assess the long-term role of existing policies in energy modelling, currently identified UK policies are explicitly stripped out of the UK MARKAL Elastic Demand (MED) optimisation energy system model, to generate a BAuU (with-policy) and a REF (without policy) baseline. In terms of long-term mitigation costs, policy-baseline assumptions are comparable to another key exogenous modelling assumption - that of global fossil fuel prices. Therefore, best practice in energy modelling would be to have both a no-policy reference baseline, and a current policy reference baseline (BAuU). At a minimum, energy modelling studies should have a transparent assessment of the current policy contained within the baseline. Clearly identifying and comparing policy-baseline assumptions are required for cost effective and objective policy making, otherwise energy models will underestimate the true cost of long-term emissions reductions.

  10. OSeMOSYS: The Open Source Energy Modeling System

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Howells, Mark; Rogner, Holger; Strachan, Neil; Heaps, Charles; Huntington, Hillard; Kypreos, Socrates; Hughes, Alison; Silveira, Semida; DeCarolis, Joe; Bazillian, Morgan; Roehrl, Alexander

    2011-01-01

    This paper discusses the design and development of the Open Source Energy Modeling System (OSeMOSYS). It describes the model's formulation in terms of a 'plain English' description, algebraic formulation, implementation-in terms of its full source code, as well as a detailed description of the model inputs, parameters, and outputs. A key feature of the OSeMOSYS implementation is that it is contained in less than five pages of documented, easily accessible code. Other existing energy system models that do not have this emphasis on compactness and openness makes the barrier to entry by new users much higher, as well as making the addition of innovative new functionality very difficult. The paper begins by describing the rationale for the development of OSeMOSYS and its structure. The current preliminary implementation of the model is then demonstrated for a discrete example. Next, we explain how new development efforts will build on the existing OSeMOSYS codebase. The paper closes with thoughts regarding the organization of the OSeMOSYS community, associated capacity development efforts, and linkages to other open source efforts including adding functionality to the LEAP model. - Highlights: → OSeMOSYS is a new free and open source energy systems. → This model is written in a simple, open, flexible and transparent manner to support teaching. → OSeMOSYS is based on free software and optimizes using a free solver. → This model replicates the results of many popular tools, such as MARKAL. → A link between OSeMOSYS and LEAP has been developed.

  11. Comprehensive modelling for approaching the Kyoto targets on a local scale

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pietrapertosa, F.; Macchiato, M.; Salvia, M.

    2003-01-01

    This study aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of the MARKAL comprehensive model in the development of coherent medium-term strategies and sound climate protection policies at local level. The local case study (Val d'Agri, Basilicata region, Italy) discusses the possible role of local communities in the achievement of the national objectives derived by the Kyoto Protocol, investigating the traditional sectors responsible for air pollution and providing a full picture of the main energy and material flows. A scenario analysis was performed to analyse the response of the modelled system to the introduction of an exogenous constraint on carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions. The main effects are presented with reference to fuel mix, technology choice, real market prices and reduced costs of competing options. The comparison of the solutions obtained for the different scenarios is useful to point out the effects of the CO 2 constraint on the total system cost and on the emission levels of other atmospheric pollutants. A further multiobjective optimisation was performed to analyse the effects of combined environmental constraints (CO 2 and particulate) on the overall system cost as well as in terms of marginal costs. (author)

  12. Comprehensive modelling for approaching the Kyoto targets on a local scale

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pietrapertosa, F. [Istituto di Metodologie per l' Analisi Ambientale, Tito Scalo (Italy); Universita degli Studi della Basilicata, Potenza (Italy). Dipartimento di Ingegneria e Fisica dell' Ambiente; Cosmi, C.; Marmo, G. [Istituto di Metodologie per l' Analisi Ambientale, Tito Scalo (Italy); Istituto Nazionale di Fisica della Materia, Napoli (Italy); Macchiato, M. [Universita Federico II, Napoli (Italy). Dipartimento di Scienze Fisiche; Salvia, M. [Istituto di Metodologie per l' Analisi Ambientale, Tito Scalo (Italy)

    2003-06-01

    This study aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of the MARKAL comprehensive model in the development of coherent medium-term strategies and sound climate protection policies at local level. The local case study (Val d'Agri, Basilicata region, Italy) discusses the possible role of local communities in the achievement of the national objectives derived by the Kyoto Protocol, investigating the traditional sectors responsible for air pollution and providing a full picture of the main energy and material flows. A scenario analysis was performed to analyse the response of the modelled system to the introduction of an exogenous constraint on carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) emissions. The main effects are presented with reference to fuel mix, technology choice, real market prices and reduced costs of competing options. The comparison of the solutions obtained for the different scenarios is useful to point out the effects of the CO{sub 2} constraint on the total system cost and on the emission levels of other atmospheric pollutants. A further multiobjective optimisation was performed to analyse the effects of combined environmental constraints (CO{sub 2} and particulate) on the overall system cost as well as in terms of marginal costs. (author)

  13. Using the IEA ETSAP modelling tools for Denmark

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Grohnheit, Poul Erik

    2008-12-15

    An important part of the cooperation within the IEA (International Energy Agency) is organised through national contributions to 'Implementation Agreements' on energy technology and energy analyses. One of them is ETSAP (Energy Technology Systems Analysis Programme), started in 1976. Denmark has signed the agreement and contributed to some early annexes. This project is motivated by an invitation to participate in ETSAP Annex X, 'Global Energy Systems and Common Analyses: Climate friendly, Secure and Productive Energy Systems' for the period 2005 to 2007. The main activity is semi-annual workshops focusing on presentations of model analyses and use of the ETSAP tools (the MARKAL/TIMES family of models). The project was also planned to benefit from the EU project 'NEEDS - New Energy Externalities Developments for Sustainability'. ETSAP is contributing to a part of NEEDS that develops the TIMES model for 29 European countries with assessment of future technologies. An additional project 'Monitoring and Evaluation of the RES directives: implementation in EU27 and policy recommendations for 2020' (RES2020) under Intelligent Energy Europe was added, as well as the Danish 'Centre for Energy, Environment and Health (CEEH), starting from January 2007. This report summarises the activities under ETSAP Annex X and related project, emphasising the development of modelling tools that will be useful for modelling the Danish energy system. It is also a status report for the development of a model for Denmark, focusing on the tools and features that allow comparison with other countries and, particularly, to evaluate assumptions and results in international models covering Denmark. (au)

  14. Methane Tracking and Mitigation Options - EPA CMOP

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — This dataset contains the sub-model for EPA's MARKAL model, which tracks methane emissions from the energy system, and limited other sources (landfills and manure...

  15. Assessment and simulation tools for sustainable energy systems theory and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Cavallaro, Fausto

    2013-01-01

    This book covers both simulations using markal model and linear programming (LP) and methods and applications of multi-criteria, fuzzy-sets, algorithm genetics and neural nets (artificial intelligence) to energy systems.

  16. LenoxKaplan_Role of natural gas in meeting electric sector emissions reduction strategy_dataset

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — This dataset is for an analysis that used the MARKAL linear optimization model to compare the carbon emissions profiles and system-wide global warming potential of...

  17. Implementation of multi-regional energy balances for Slovenia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suvorov, B.; Schechtner, O.; Zelle, K.; Andjelic, M.W.

    1994-01-01

    The system used for preparing energy balances for Styria and 17 Styrian districts, which was developed by ADIP-GRAZ in accordance with the federal energy balance of Austria, is being applied to Slovenia. Energy balances are a necessary tool for monitoring the impact of measures initiated by the energy policy. Therefore balances are of a basic mutual interest, also in connection with balances of air pollutants that can be calculated from energy balances. The official Slovenian energy balance for the year 1990 is the basis for implementation of regional balances for five chosen regions (Maribor region, Celje region, Ljubljana region, Littoral region, and Upper-Slovenia region). Results are presented according to defined concepts and structures which are closely related to the MEDEE-RS methodology. (Author)

  18. Multi-region unstructured volume segmentation using tetrahedron filling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Willliams, Sean Jamerson [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Dillard, Scott E [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Thoma, Dan J [MDI, INSTITUTES; Hlawitschka, Mario [UC DAVIS; Hamann, Bernd [UC DAVIS

    2010-01-01

    Segmentation is one of the most common operations in image processing, and while there are several solutions already present in the literature, they each have their own benefits and drawbacks that make them well-suited for some types of data and not for others. We focus on the problem of breaking an image into multiple regions in a single segmentation pass, while supporting both voxel and scattered point data. To solve this problem, we begin with a set of potential boundary points and use a Delaunay triangulation to complete the boundaries. We use heuristic- and interaction-driven Voronoi clustering to find reasonable groupings of tetrahedra. Apart from the computation of the Delaunay triangulation, our algorithm has linear time complexity with respect to the number of tetrahedra.

  19. 40 CFR 300.140 - Multi-regional responses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... PLANNING, AND COMMUNITY RIGHT-TO-KNOW PROGRAMS NATIONAL OIL AND HAZARDOUS SUBSTANCES POLLUTION CONTINGENCY... hazardous waste management facilities located in the coastal zone, responsibility for response action shall...

  20. Multi-product and Multi-region Marketing

    OpenAIRE

    Widodo, Tri

    2017-01-01

    Firms could position themselves to compete within the same industry in different ways. They try to get their competitive advantage, which is defined as the ability to earn a higher rate of economic profit than the average of economic profit of other firms competing within the same markets (Besanko et al, 2013). Michael Porter (1980) coined generic strategies for firms to compete in the markets they serve, i.e. cost leadership, benefit leadership, and focus. Besanko et al (2014) noted three po...

  1. Electromagnetic scattering using the iterative multi-region technique

    CERN Document Server

    Al Sharkawy, Mohamed H

    2007-01-01

    In this work, an iterative approach using the finite difference frequency domain method is presented to solve the problem of scattering from large-scale electromagnetic structures. The idea of the proposed iterative approach is to divide one computational domain into smaller subregions and solve each subregion separately. Then the subregion solutions are combined iteratively to obtain a solution for the complete domain. As a result, a considerable reduction in the computation time and memory is achieved. This procedure is referred to as the iterative multiregion (IMR) technique.Different enhan

  2. Medial/skeletal linking structures for multi-region configurations

    CERN Document Server

    Damon, James

    2018-01-01

    The authors consider a generic configuration of regions, consisting of a collection of distinct compact regions \\{ \\Omega_i\\} in \\mathbb{R}^{n+1} which may be either regions with smooth boundaries disjoint from the others or regions which meet on their piecewise smooth boundaries \\mathcal{B}_i in a generic way. They introduce a skeletal linking structure for the collection of regions which simultaneously captures the regions' individual shapes and geometric properties as well as the "positional geometry" of the collection. The linking structure extends in a minimal way the individual "skeletal structures" on each of the regions. This allows the authors to significantly extend the mathematical methods introduced for single regions to the configuration of regions.

  3. A knowledge representation model for the optimisation of electricity generation mixes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chee Tahir, Aidid; Bañares-Alcántara, René

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► Prototype energy model which uses semantic representation (ontologies). ► Model accepts both quantitative and qualitative based energy policy goals. ► Uses logic inference to formulate equations for linear optimisation. ► Proposes electricity generation mix based on energy policy goals. -- Abstract: Energy models such as MARKAL, MESSAGE and DNE-21 are optimisation tools which aid in the formulation of energy policies. The strength of these models lie in their solid theoretical foundations built on rigorous mathematical equations designed to process numerical (quantitative) data related to economics and the environment. Nevertheless, a complete consideration of energy policy issues also requires the consideration of the political and social aspects of energy. These political and social issues are often associated with non-numerical (qualitative) information. To enable the evaluation of these aspects in a computer model, we hypothesise that a different approach to energy model optimisation design is required. A prototype energy model that is based on a semantic representation using ontologies and is integrated to engineering models implemented in Java has been developed. The model provides both quantitative and qualitative evaluation capabilities through the use of logical inference. The semantic representation of energy policy goals is used (i) to translate a set of energy policy goals into a set of logic queries which is then used to determine the preferred electricity generation mix and (ii) to assist in the formulation of a set of equations which is then solved in order to obtain a proposed electricity generation mix. Scenario case studies have been developed and tested on the prototype energy model to determine its capabilities. Knowledge queries were made on the semantic representation to determine an electricity generation mix which fulfilled a set of energy policy goals (e.g. CO 2 emissions reduction, water conservation, energy supply

  4. Design multiperiod optimization model for the electricity sector under uncertainty – A case study of the Emirate of Abu Dhabi

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Betancourt-Torcat, Alberto; Almansoori, Ali

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Generic and novel multiperiod stochastic model is developed for UAE power sector. • The presented model is formulated as a mixed-integer linear programing problem. • Power infrastructure over 25 years is outlined under natural gas price uncertainty. • Low electricity prices and better social and environmental benefits were obtained. - Abstract: In this study, a multiperiod model that considers uncertainty in the gas feedstock fuel price is developed for the optimal design of electric power systems. The optimization problem was formulated as a multiperiod stochastic programming model using the GAMS® modeling system. Previous studies have analyzed the United Arab Emirates’ (UAE) power infrastructure either using a deterministic point of view or simulation tools (e.g., MESSAGE and MARKAL). These previous research has demonstrated that natural gas will remain playing a significant role as key feedstock fuel in the UAE’s power sector. However, the present work is designed to be the first to consider different supply options for the natural gas feedstock (i.e., domestic, pipeline imports, and LNG imports) and electricity imports in the UAE power sector. Moreover, the natural gas supply and electricity import options are considered to be decision variables in the problem’s formulation. Additionally, the considered case studies assumed a realistically existing power infrastructure for the UAE, whereas previous works considered the planning of the UAE power infrastructure as a Greenfield project. Also, to the authors’ knowledge this is the first work to consider a robust optimization model for planning the UAE power infrastructure under uncertainty in the long term horizon. The model was used to study the planning of the power plant infrastructure in the UAE between 2015 and 2040 under uncertainty in the natural gas price. The optimization results show that the model is a valuable tool for planning the optimal power plant infrastructure of the

  5. An integrated GIS-MARKAL toolbox for designing a CO2 infrastructure network in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van den Broek, M.A.; Brederode, E.; Ramirez, C.A.; Kramers, K.; van der Kuip, M.; Wildenborg, T.; Faaij, A.P.C.; Turkenburg, W.C.

    2009-01-01

    Large-scale implementation of carbon capture and storage needs a whole new infrastructure to transport and store CO2. Tools that can support planning and designing of such infrastructure require incorporation of both temporal and spatial aspects. Therefore, a toolbox that integrates ArcGIS, a

  6. What are the key drivers of MAC curves? A partial-equilibrium modelling approach for the UK

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kesicki, Fabian

    2013-01-01

    Marginal abatement cost (MAC) curves are widely used for the assessment of costs related to CO 2 emissions reduction in environmental economics, as well as domestic and international climate policy. Several meta-analyses and model comparisons have previously been performed that aim to identify the causes for the wide range of MAC curves. Most of these concentrate on general equilibrium models with a focus on aspects such as specific model type and technology learning, while other important aspects remain almost unconsidered, including the availability of abatement technologies and level of discount rates. This paper addresses the influence of several key parameters on MAC curves for the United Kingdom and the year 2030. A technology-rich energy system model, UK MARKAL, is used to derive the MAC curves. The results of this study show that MAC curves are robust even to extreme fossil fuel price changes, while uncertainty around the choice of the discount rate, the availability of key abatement technologies and the demand level were singled out as the most important influencing factors. By using a different model type and studying a wider range of influencing factors, this paper contributes to the debate on the sensitivity of MAC curves. - Highlights: ► A partial-equilibrium model is employed to test key sensitivities of MAC curves. ► MAC curves are found to be robust to wide-ranging changes in fossil fuel prices. ► Most influencing factors are the discount rate, availability of key technologies. ► Further important uncertainty in MAC curves is related to demand changes

  7. Energy scenarios for Switzerland and emission control, estimated with a normative model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kypreos, S.

    1990-06-01

    The reported work presents results of the IEA-ETSAP project (International Energy Agency - Energy Technology Systems Analysis Project) concerning the interrelations among energy use, emissions to the atmosphere and the cost of emission control. The energy simulation model SMEDE, which has been developed at PSI and applies the engineering simulation (bottom up) approach, and the IEA optimization model MARKAL (MARKet ALlocation) have been used to analyse the energy demand and supply system of Switzerland. The purpose of this analysis is to identify technical options and their cost for reducing the energy dependent atmospheric emissions in Switzerland to the levels of the 'clean air concept'. The study addresses also the question of the feasibility and the economic implications of reducing the CO 2 emissions to the levels recommended by the Toronto conference. The implications of a stringent 'clean air concept' and these of the Toronto recommendations have been analysed under different nuclear supply options i.e. an unconstrained nuclear supply case (reference), a nuclear status-quo (moratorium) and under the conditions of a nuclear phase-out programme by the year 2025. The main conclusions of this analysis indicate that the emissions of sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxide could be reduced back to the levels of 1950 respectively 1960, by the introduction of emission control technologies which go above the present performance limits defined by the 'clean air ordinance' (LRV). A probable time horizon to satisfy the NO x constraints is the year 2000 and not 1995. Organizational measures necessary to improve the air quality in cities are complementary to the measures proposed in this analysis. (author) figs., tabs., 18 refs

  8. Two-stage stochastic programming model for the regional-scale electricity planning under demand uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huang, Yun-Hsun; Wu, Jung-Hua; Hsu, Yu-Ju

    2016-01-01

    Traditional electricity supply planning models regard the electricity demand as a deterministic parameter and require the total power output to satisfy the aggregate electricity demand. But in today's world, the electric system planners are facing tremendously complex environments full of uncertainties, where electricity demand is a key source of uncertainty. In addition, electricity demand patterns are considerably different for different regions. This paper developed a multi-region optimization model based on two-stage stochastic programming framework to incorporate the demand uncertainty. Furthermore, the decision tree method and Monte Carlo simulation approach are integrated into the model to simplify electricity demands in the form of nodes and determine the values and probabilities. The proposed model was successfully applied to a real case study (i.e. Taiwan's electricity sector) to show its applicability. Detail simulation results were presented and compared with those generated by a deterministic model. Finally, the long-term electricity development roadmap at a regional level could be provided on the basis of our simulation results. - Highlights: • A multi-region, two-stage stochastic programming model has been developed. • The decision tree and Monte Carlo simulation are integrated into the framework. • Taiwan's electricity sector is used to illustrate the applicability of the model. • The results under deterministic and stochastic cases are shown for comparison. • Optimal portfolios of regional generation technologies can be identified.

  9. Modelling

    CERN Document Server

    Spädtke, P

    2013-01-01

    Modeling of technical machines became a standard technique since computer became powerful enough to handle the amount of data relevant to the specific system. Simulation of an existing physical device requires the knowledge of all relevant quantities. Electric fields given by the surrounding boundary as well as magnetic fields caused by coils or permanent magnets have to be known. Internal sources for both fields are sometimes taken into account, such as space charge forces or the internal magnetic field of a moving bunch of charged particles. Used solver routines are briefly described and some bench-marking is shown to estimate necessary computing times for different problems. Different types of charged particle sources will be shown together with a suitable model to describe the physical model. Electron guns are covered as well as different ion sources (volume ion sources, laser ion sources, Penning ion sources, electron resonance ion sources, and H$^-$-sources) together with some remarks on beam transport.

  10. Alternative policy impacts on US GHG emissions and energy security: A hybrid modeling approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sarica, Kemal; Tyner, Wallace E.

    2013-01-01

    This study addresses the possible impacts of energy and climate policies, namely corporate average fleet efficiency (CAFE) standard, renewable fuel standard (RFS) and clean energy standard (CES), and an economy wide equivalent carbon tax on GHG emissions in the US to the year 2045. Bottom–up and top–down modeling approaches find widespread use in energy economic modeling and policy analysis, in which they differ mainly with respect to the emphasis placed on technology of the energy system and/or the comprehensiveness of endogenous market adjustments. For this study, we use a hybrid energy modeling approach, MARKAL–Macro, that combines the characteristics of two divergent approaches, in order to investigate and quantify the cost of climate policies for the US and an equivalent carbon tax. The approach incorporates Macro-economic feedbacks through a single sector neoclassical growth model while maintaining sectoral and technological detail of the bottom–up optimization framework with endogenous aggregated energy demand. Our analysis is done for two important objectives of the US energy policy: GHG reduction and increased energy security. Our results suggest that the emission tax achieves results quite similar to the CES policy but very different results in the transportation sector. The CAFE standard and RFS are more expensive than a carbon tax for emission reductions. However, the CAFE standard and RFS are much more efficient at achieving crude oil import reductions. The GDP losses are 2.0% and 1.2% relative to the base case for the policy case and carbon tax. That difference may be perceived as being small given the increased energy security gained from the CAFE and RFS policy measures and the uncertainty inherent in this type of analysis. - Highlights: • Evaluates US impacts of three energy/climate policies and a carbon tax (CT) • Analysis done with bottom–up MARKAL model coupled with a macro model • Electricity clean energy standard very close to

  11. Swiss taxation policies to curb CO{sub 2} emissions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bahn, O.; Kypreos, S. [Paul Scherrer Inst. (PSI), Villigen (Switzerland); Fragniere, E. [HEC-Lausanne, Lausanne (Switzerland)

    1997-06-01

    This study offers insights about the design of economically efficient policies to curb carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) emissions in Switzerland. The method uses MARKAL, a bottom-up engineering model of the energy system. Based on a stochastic programming approach, this study proposes as a first option the introduction of a hedging carbon tax. Using then a multinational MARKAL model, this study considers as a second alternative an international co-operation to curb jointly CO{sub 2} emissions by means of a uniform carbon tax. (author) 1 fig., 6 refs.

  12. Evaluation of alternative future energy scenarios for Brazil using an energy mix model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coelho, Maysa Joppert

    The purpose of this study is to model and assess the performance and the emissions impacts of electric energy technologies in Brazil, based on selected economic scenarios, for a time frame of 40 years, taking the year of 1995 as a base year. A Base scenario has been developed, for each of three economic development projections, based upon a sectoral analysis. Data regarding the characteristics of over 300 end-use technologies and 400 energy conversion technologies have been collected. The stand-alone MARKAL technology-based energy-mix model, first developed at Brookhaven National Laboratory, was applied to a base case study and five alternative case studies, for each economic scenario. The alternative case studies are: (1) minimum increase in the thermoelectric contribution to the power production system of 20 percent after 2010; (2) extreme values for crude oil price; (3) minimum increase in the renewable technologies contribution to the power production system of 20 percent after 2010; (4) uncertainty on the cost of future renewable conversion technologies; and (5) model is forced to use the natural gas plants committed to be built in the country. Results such as the distribution of fuel used for power generation, electricity demand across economy sectors, total CO2 emissions from burning fossil fuels for power generation, shadow price (marginal cost) of technologies, and others, are evaluated and compared to the Base scenarios previous established. Among some key findings regarding the Brazilian energy system it may be inferred that: (1) diesel technologies are estimated to be the most cost-effective thermal technology in the country; (2) wind technology is estimated to be the most cost-effective technology to be used when a minimum share of renewables is imposed to the system; and (3) hydroelectric technologies present the highest cost/benefit relation among all conversion technologies considered. These results are subject to the limitations of key input

  13. CCS Infrastructure Development Scenarios for the Integrated Iberian Peninsula and Morocco Energy System

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kanudia, A.; Berghout, N.A.; Boavida, D.; van den Broek, M.A.

    2013-01-01

    This paper briefly illustrates a method to represent national energy systems and the geographical details of CCS infrastructures in the same technical-economic model. In the MARKAL-TIMES modeling framework a model of Morocco, Portugal and Spain with both spatial and temporal details has been

  14. Development of an Integrated Global Energy Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krakowski, R.A.

    1999-01-01

    The primary objective of this research was to develop a forefront analysis tool for application to enhance understanding of long-term, global, nuclear-energy and nuclear-material futures. To this end, an existing economics-energy-environmental (E 3 ) model was adopted, modified, and elaborated to examine this problem in a multi-regional (13), long-term (approximately2,100) context. The E 3 model so developed was applied to create a Los Alamos presence in this E 3 area through ''niche analyses'' that provide input to the formulation of policies dealing with and shaping of nuclear-energy and nuclear-materials futures. Results from analyses using the E 3 model have been presented at a variety of national and international conferences and workshops. Through use of the E 3 model Los Alamos was afforded the opportunity to participate in a multi-national E 3 study team that is examining a range of global, long-term nuclear issues under the auspices of the IAEA during the 1998-99 period . Finally, the E 3 model developed under this LDRD project is being used as an important component in more recent Nuclear Material Management Systems (NMMS) project

  15. Long-term modelling of Carbon Capture and Storage, Nuclear Fusion, and large-scale District Heating

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grohnheit, Poul Erik; Korsholm, Søren Bang; Lüthje, Mikael

    2011-01-01

    before 2050. The modelling tools developed by the International Energy Agency (IEA) Implementing Agreement ETSAP include both multi-regional global and long-term energy models till 2100, as well as national or regional models with shorter time horizons. Examples are the EFDA-TIMES model, focusing...... on nuclear fusion and the Pan European TIMES model, respectively. In the next decades CCS can be a driver for the development and expansion of large-scale district heating systems, which are currently widespread in Europe, Korea and China, and with large potentials in North America. If fusion will replace...... fossil fuel power plants with CCS in the second half of the century, the same infrastructure for heat distribution can be used which will support the penetration of both technologies. This paper will address the issue of infrastructure development and the use of CCS and fusion technologies using...

  16. LHC signals of radiatively-induced neutrino masses and implications for the Zee-Babu model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alcaide, Julien; Chala, Mikael; Santamaria, Arcadi

    2018-04-01

    Contrary to the see-saw models, extended Higgs sectors leading to radiatively-induced neutrino masses do require the extra particles to be at the TeV scale. However, these new states have often exotic decays, to which experimental LHC searches performed so far, focused on scalars decaying into pairs of same-sign leptons, are not sensitive. In this paper we show that their experimental signatures can start to be tested with current LHC data if dedicated multi-region analyses correlating different observables are used. We also provide high-accuracy estimations of the complicated Standard Model backgrounds involved. For the case of the Zee-Babu model, we show that regions not yet constrained by neutrino data and low-energy experiments can be already probed, while most of the parameter space could be excluded at the 95% C.L. in a high-luminosity phase of the LHC.

  17. International trade in oil, gas and carbon emission rights: An intertemporal general equilibrium model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Manne, A.S.; Rutherford, T.F.

    1994-01-01

    This paper employs a five-region intertemporal model to examine three issues related to carbon emission restrictions. First, we investigate the possible impact of such limits upon future oil prices. We show that carbon limits are likely to differ in their near- and long-term impact. Second, we analyze the problem of open-quotes leakageclose quotes which could arise if the OECD countries were to adopt unilateral limits upon carbon emissions. Third, we quantify some of the gains from trade in carbon emission rights. Each of these issues have been studied before, but to our knowledge this is the first study based on a multi-regional, forward-looking model. We show that sequential joint maximization can be an effective way to compute equilibria for intertemporal general equilibrium models of international trade. 18 refs., 10 figs

  18. A framework to analyze emissions implications of ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Future year emissions depend highly on the evolution of the economy, technology and current and future regulatory drivers. A scenario framework was adopted to analyze various technology development pathways and societal change while considering existing regulations and future uncertainty in regulations and evaluate resulting emissions growth patterns. The framework integrates EPA’s energy systems model with an economic Input-Output (I/O) Life Cycle Assessment model. The EPAUS9r MARKAL database is assembled from a set of technologies to represent the U.S. energy system within MARKAL bottom-up technology rich energy modeling framework. The general state of the economy and consequent demands for goods and services from these sectors are taken exogenously in MARKAL. It is important to characterize exogenous inputs about the economy to appropriately represent the industrial sector outlook for each of the scenarios and case studies evaluated. An economic input-output (I/O) model of the US economy is constructed to link up with MARKAL. The I/O model enables user to change input requirements (e.g. energy intensity) for different sectors or the share of consumer income expended on a given good. This gives end-users a mechanism for modeling change in the two dimensions of technological progress and consumer preferences that define the future scenarios. The framework will then be extended to include environmental I/O framework to track life cycle emissions associated

  19. Numerical Modeling of Fluid Flow, Heat Transfer and Arc-Melt Interaction in Tungsten Inert Gas Welding

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Linmin; Li, Baokuan; Liu, Lichao; Motoyama, Yuichi

    2017-04-01

    The present work develops a multi-region dynamic coupling model for fluid flow, heat transfer and arc-melt interaction in tungsten inert gas (TIG) welding using the dynamic mesh technique. The arc-weld pool unified model is developed on basis of magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) equations and the interface is tracked using the dynamic mesh method. The numerical model for arc is firstly validated by comparing the calculated temperature profiles and essential results with the former experimental data. For weld pool convection solution, the drag, Marangoni, buoyancy and electromagnetic forces are separately validated, and then taken into account. Moreover, the model considering interface deformation is adopted in a stationary TIG welding process with SUS304 stainless steel and the effect of interface deformation is investigated. The depression of weld pool center and the lifting of pool periphery are both predicted. The results show that the weld pool shape calculated with considering the interface deformation is more accurate.

  20. Analysis of market penetration of renewable energy alternatives under uncertain and carbon constrained world

    Science.gov (United States)

    Future energy prices and supply, availability and costs can have a significant impact on how fast and cost effectively we could abate carbon emissions. Two-staged decision making methods embedded in U.S. EPA's MARKAL modeling system will be utilized to find the most robust mitig...

  1. Global post-Kyoto scenario analyses at PSI

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kypreos, S [Paul Scherrer Inst. (PSI), Villigen (Switzerland)

    1999-08-01

    Scenario analyses are described here using the Global MARKAL-Macro Trade (GMMT) model to study the economic implications of the Kyoto Protocol to the UN Convention on Climate change. Some conclusions are derived in terms of efficient implementations of the post-Kyoto extensions of the Protocol. (author) 2 figs., 5 refs.

  2. Global post-Kyoto scenario analyses at PSI

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kypreos, S.

    1999-01-01

    Scenario analyses are described here using the Global MARKAL-Macro Trade (GMMT) model to study the economic implications of the Kyoto Protocol to the UN Convention on Climate change. Some conclusions are derived in terms of efficient implementations of the post-Kyoto extensions of the Protocol. (author) 2 figs., 5 refs

  3. Towards a global multi-regional environmentally extended input-output database

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tukker, Arnold; Poliakov, Evgueni; Heijungs, Reinout; Hawkins, Troy; Neuwahl, Frederik; Rueda-Cantuche, Jose M.; Giljum, Stefan; Moll, Stephan; Oosterhaven, Jan; Bouwmeester, Maaike

    2009-01-01

    This paper presents the strategy for a large EU-funded Integrated Project: EXIOPOL ("A New Environmental Accounting Framework Using Externality Data and Input-Output Tools for Policy Analysis"), with special attention for its part in environmentally extended (EE) input-output (IO) analysis. The

  4. Acute in vivo testing of a conformal polymer microelectrode array for multi-region hippocampal recordings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Huijing; Weltman Hirschberg, Ahuva; Scholten, Kee; Berger, Theodore William; Song, Dong; Meng, Ellis

    2018-02-01

    Objective. The success of a cortical prosthetic device relies upon its ability to attain resolvable spikes from many neurons in particular neural networks over long periods of time. Traditionally, lifetimes of neural recordings are greatly limited by the body’s immune response against the foreign implant which causes neuronal death and glial scarring. This immune reaction is posited to be exacerbated by micromotion between the implant, which is often rigid, and the surrounding, soft brain tissue, and attenuates the quality of recordings over time. Approach. In an attempt to minimize the foreign body response to a penetrating neural array that records from multiple brain regions, Parylene C, a flexible, biocompatible polymer was used as the substrate material for a functional, proof-of-concept neural array with a reduced elastic modulus. This probe array was designed and fabricated to have 64 electrodes positioned to match the anatomy of the rat hippocampus and allow for simultaneous recordings between two cell-body layers of interest. A dissolvable brace was used for deep-brain penetration of the flexible array. Main results. Arrays were electrochemically characterized at the benchtop, and a novel insertion technique that restricts acute insertion injury enabled accurate target placement of four, bare, flexible arrays to greater than 4 mm deep into the rat brain. Arrays were tested acutely and in vivo recordings taken intra-operatively reveal spikes in both targeted regions of the hippocampus with spike amplitudes and noise levels similar to those recorded with microwires. Histological staining of a sham array implanted for one month reveals limited astrocytic scarring and neuronal death around the implant. Significance. This work represents one of the first examples of a penetrating polymer probe array that records from individual neurons in structures that lie deep within the brain.

  5. A multi-regional study on new approaches to investigate the quality of human sperm

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Alipour, Hiva; Nielsen, H. Ingolf; Van Der Horst, Gerhard

    2013-01-01

    the number of failed implantations and repeated abortions. Conclusion: Collecting and analyzing the samples from different locations (different countries and continents) using the SCA (Sperm Class Analyzer, Microptic, Spain) which has eliminated the inter technician variation and provides quantitative data...... and a means to assess samples at the exact same scale, will provide a comparison of the average sperm statistics and also the quality of consecutive sperm samples in these different locations. This would specially prove to be of utmost importance in determining and endorsing a global scale for the computer...

  6. A multi-region boundary element method for multigroup neutron diffusion calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ozgener, H.A.; Ozgener, B.

    2001-01-01

    For the analysis of a two-dimensional nuclear system consisting of a number of homogeneous regions (termed cells), first the cell matrices which depend solely on the material composition and geometrical dimension of the cell (hence on the cell type) are constructed using a boundary element formulation based on the multigroup boundary integral equation. For a particular nuclear system, the cell matrices are utilized in the assembly of the global system matrix in block-banded form using the newly introduced concept of virtual side. For criticality calculations, the classical fission source iteration is employed and linear system solutions are by the block Gaussian-elimination algorithm. The numerical applications show the validity of the proposed formulation both through comparison with analytical solutions and assessment of benchmark problem results against alternative methods

  7. A multi-region multi-energy formalism for the Feynman-alpha formulas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Malinovitch, T.; Dubi, C.

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • A formalism of N regions and M groups for the Feynman-α method is introduced. • Using a space-energy cell notation the expressions are simplified significantly. • A simple way to incorporate the detectors in the system is used. • The results have been verified by a Monte Carlo simulation in a two-region case. - Abstract: The stochastic transport equation, describing the dynamics in time of the neutron population in a nuclear system, is used to gain expressions for the higher moments of the neutron population in a sub-critical system. Such expressions are the bone structure of the so called Feynman-α method to analyze noise experiments, aimed to determine the reactivity of sub-critical systems. In the present study, a general formalism for the stochastic transport equation in an N regions system, under the M energy groups approximation will be introduced. In particular, expressions for the Feynman variance to mean (or the Feynman-Y function) under the above mentioned restriction will be sought by using the steady state mode of the solution

  8. Global economics/energy/environmental (E3) modeling of long-term nuclear energy futures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krakowski, R.A.; Davidson, J.W.; Bathke, C.G.; Arthur, E.D.; Wagner, R.L. Jr.

    1997-01-01

    A global energy, economics, environment (E 3 ) model has been adopted and modified with a simplified, but comprehensive and multi-regional, nuclear energy module. Using this model, consistent nuclear energy scenarios are constructed. A spectrum of future is examined at two levels in a hierarchy of scenario attributes in which drivers are either external or internal to nuclear energy. Impacts of a range of nuclear fuel-cycle scenarios are reflected back to the higher-level scenario attributes. An emphasis is placed on nuclear materials inventories (in magnitude, location, and form) and their contribution to the long-term sustainability of nuclear energy and the future competitiveness of both conventional and advanced nuclear reactors

  9. Global economics/energy/environmental (E{sup 3}) modeling of long-term nuclear energy futures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Krakowski, R.A.; Davidson, J.W.; Bathke, C.G.; Arthur, E.D.; Wagner, R.L. Jr.

    1997-09-01

    A global energy, economics, environment (E{sup 3}) model has been adopted and modified with a simplified, but comprehensive and multi-regional, nuclear energy module. Using this model, consistent nuclear energy scenarios are constructed. A spectrum of future is examined at two levels in a hierarchy of scenario attributes in which drivers are either external or internal to nuclear energy. Impacts of a range of nuclear fuel-cycle scenarios are reflected back to the higher-level scenario attributes. An emphasis is placed on nuclear materials inventories (in magnitude, location, and form) and their contribution to the long-term sustainability of nuclear energy and the future competitiveness of both conventional and advanced nuclear reactors.

  10. Assessment of externalities related to global and local air pollutants with the NEEDS-TIMES Italy model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pietrapertosa, F.; Cosmi, C.; Loperte, S.; Salvia, M.; Cuomo, V. [National Research Council, Institute of Methodologies for Environmental Analysis, C.da S. Loja, I-85050 Tito Scalo (PZ) (Italy); Di Leo, S. [University of Basilicata, Dept. of Environmental Engineering and Physics, C.da Macchia Romana, I-85100 Potenza (Italy); Macchiato, M. [Federico II University, Dept. of Physical Sciences, Via Cintia, I-80126 Naples (Italy)

    2010-01-15

    This work is aimed to illustrate the potentiality of the multi-region NEEDS-TIMES modelling platform, in the economic evaluation of the environmental damages due to air pollution. In particular the effects of external costs on the least-cost optimised energy system configuration were analysed in a national case study with the NEEDS-TIMES Italy model, considering the externalities related to local and global air pollutants (NO{sub x}, SO{sub 2}, VOC, particulates and GHGs). Different scenarios were compared to emphasise the role of external costs in the achievement of strategic environmental targets. The main results obtained are discussed, focusing on the changes in energy fuel mix as well as in local air pollutants and GHG emissions, highlighting the main conclusions in terms of policy strategies. (author)

  11. A case study in data audit and modelling methodology. Australia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Apelbaum, John [Apelbaum Consulting Group, 750 Blackburn Road, Melbourne VIC 3170 (Australia)

    2009-10-15

    The purpose of the paper is to outline a rigorous, spatially consistent and cost-effective transport planning tool that projects travel demand, energy and emissions for all modes associated with domestic and international transport. The planning tool (Aus{sub e}Tran) is a multi-modal, multi-fuel and multi-regional macroeconomic and demographic-based computational model of the Australian transport sector that overcomes some of the gaps associated with existing strategic level transport emission models. The paper also identifies a number of key data issues that need to be resolved prior to model development with particular reference to the Australian environment. The strategic model structure endogenously derives transport demand, energy and emissions by jurisdiction, vehicle type, emission type and transport service for both freight and passenger transport. Importantly, the analytical framework delineates the national transport task, energy consumed and emissions according to region, state/territory of origin and jurisdictional protocols, provides an audit mechanism for the evaluation of the methodological framework, integrates a mathematical protocol to derive time series FFC emission factors and allows for the impact of non-registered road vehicles on transport, fuel and emissions. (author)

  12. Direct regional energy/economic modeling (DREEM) design

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hall, P.D.; Pleatsikas, C.J.

    1979-10-01

    This report summarizes an investigation into the use of regional and multiregional economic models for estimating the indirect and induced impacts of Federally-mandated energy policies. It includes an examination of alternative types of energy policies that can impact regional economies and the available analytical frameworks for measuring the magnitudes and spatial extents of these impacts. One such analytical system, the National Regional Impact Evaluation System (NRIES), currently operational in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), is chosen for more detailed investigation. The report summarizes the models capabilities for addressing various energy policy issues and then demonstrates the applicability of the model in specified contexts by developing appropriate input data for three scenarios. These scenarios concern the multi-state impacts of alternative coal-mining-development decisions, multi-regional impacts of macroeconomic change, and the comprehensive effects of an alternative national energy supply trajectory. On the basis of this experience, the capabilities of NRIES for analyzing energy-policy issues are summarized in a concluding chapter.

  13. Crop Yield Simulations Using Multiple Regional Climate Models in the Southwestern United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stack, D.; Kafatos, M.; Kim, S.; Kim, J.; Walko, R. L.

    2013-12-01

    Agricultural productivity (described by crop yield) is strongly dependent on climate conditions determined by meteorological parameters (e.g., temperature, rainfall, and solar radiation). California is the largest producer of agricultural products in the United States, but crops in associated arid and semi-arid regions live near their physiological limits (e.g., in hot summer conditions with little precipitation). Thus, accurate climate data are essential in assessing the impact of climate variability on agricultural productivity in the Southwestern United States and other arid regions. To address this issue, we produced simulated climate datasets and used them as input for the crop production model. For climate data, we employed two different regional climate models (WRF and OLAM) using a fine-resolution (8km) grid. Performances of the two different models are evaluated in a fine-resolution regional climate hindcast experiment for 10 years from 2001 to 2010 by comparing them to the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) dataset. Based on this comparison, multi-model ensembles with variable weighting are used to alleviate model bias and improve the accuracy of crop model productivity over large geographic regions (county and state). Finally, by using a specific crop-yield simulation model (APSIM) in conjunction with meteorological forcings from the multi-regional climate model ensemble, we demonstrate the degree to which maize yields are sensitive to the regional climate in the Southwestern United States.

  14. Essays in energy policy and planning modeling under uncertainty: Value of information, optimistic biases, and simulation of capacity markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Ming-Che

    Optimization and simulation are popular operations research and systems analysis tools for energy policy modeling. This dissertation addresses three important questions concerning the use of these tools for energy market (and electricity market) modeling and planning under uncertainty. (1) What is the value of information and cost of disregarding different sources of uncertainty for the U.S. energy economy? (2) Could model-based calculations of the performance (social welfare) of competitive and oligopolistic market equilibria be optimistically biased due to uncertainties in objective function coefficients? (3) How do alternative sloped demand curves perform in the PJM capacity market under economic and weather uncertainty? How does curve adjustment and cost dynamics affect the capacity market outcomes? To address the first question, two-stage stochastic optimization is utilized in the U.S. national MARKAL energy model; then the value of information and cost of ignoring uncertainty are estimated for three uncertainties: carbon cap policy, load growth and natural gas prices. When an uncertainty is important, then explicitly considering those risks when making investments will result in better performance in expectation (positive expected cost of ignoring uncertainty). Furthermore, eliminating the uncertainty would improve strategies even further, meaning that improved forecasts of future conditions are valuable ( i.e., a positive expected value of information). Also, the value of policy coordination shows the difference between a strategy developed under the incorrect assumption of no carbon cap and a strategy correctly anticipating imposition of such a cap. For the second question, game theory models are formulated and the existence of optimistic (positive) biases in market equilibria (both competitive and oligopoly markets) are proved, in that calculated social welfare and producer profits will, in expectation, exceed the values that will actually be received

  15. New York City Energy-Water Integrated Planning: A Pilot Study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bhatt,V.; Crosson, K. M.; Horak, W.; Reisman, A.

    2008-12-16

    The New York City Energy-Water Integrated Planning Pilot Study is one of several projects funded by Sandia National Laboratories under the U.S. Department of Energy Energy-Water Nexus Program. These projects are intended to clarify some key issues and research needs identified during the Energy-Water Nexus Roadmapping activities. The objectives of the New York City Pilot Project are twofold: to identify energy-water nexus issues in an established urban area in conjunction with a group of key stakeholders and to define and apply an integrated energy and water decision support tool, as proof-of-concept, to one or more of these issues. During the course of this study, the Brookhaven National Laboratory project team worked very closely with members of a Pilot Project Steering Committee. The Steering Committee members brought a breadth of experience across the energy, water and climate disciplines, and all are well versed in the particular issues faced by an urban environment, and by New York City in particular. The first task was to identify energy-water issues of importance to New York City. This exercise was followed by discussion of the qualities and capabilities that an ideal decision support tool should display to address these issues. The decision was made to start with an existing energy model, the New York City version of the MARKAL model, developed originally at BNL and now used globally by many groups for energy analysis. MARKAL has the virtue of being well-vetted, transparent, and capable of calculating 'material' flows, such as water use by the energy system and energy requirements of water technology. The Steering Committee members defined five scenarios of interest, representing a broad spectrum of New York City energy-water issues. Brookhaven National Laboratory researchers developed a model framework (Water-MARKAL) at the desired level of detail to address the scenarios, and then attempted to gather the New York City-specific information

  16. Market penetration analysis of hydrogen vehicles in Norwegian passenger transport towards 2050

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rosenberg, Eva; Fidje, Audun; Espegren, Kari Aamodt; Stiller, Christoph; Svensson, Ann Mari; Moeller-Holst, Steffen

    2010-01-01

    The Norwegian energy system is characterized by high dependency on electricity, mainly hydro power. If the national targets to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases should be met, a substantial reduction of CO 2 emissions has to be obtained from the transport sector. This paper presents the results of the analyses of three Norwegian regions with the energy system model MARKAL during the period 2005-2050. The MARKAL models were used in connection with an infrastructure model H2INVEST. The analyses show that a transition to a hydrogen fuelled transportation sector could be feasible in the long run, and indicate that with substantial hydrogen distribution efforts, fuel cell cars can become competitive compared to other technologies both in urban (2025) and rural areas (2030). In addition, the result shows the importance of the availability of local energy resources for hydrogen production, like the advantages of location close to chemical industry or surplus of renewable electricity. (author)

  17. Methane from wood

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schulz, T. F.; Barreto, L.; Kypreos, S.; Stucki, S

    2005-07-15

    The role of wood-based energy technologies in the Swiss energy system in the long-term is examined using the energy-system Swiss MARKAL model. The Swiss MARKAL model is a 'bottom-up' energy-systems optimization model that allows a detailed representation of energy technologies. The model has been developed as a joint effort between the Energy Economics Group (EEG) at Paul Scherrer Institute PSI) and the University of Geneva and is currently used at PSI-EEG. Using the Swiss MARKAL model, this study examines the conditions under which wood-based energy technologies could play a role in the Swiss energy system, the most attractive pathways for their use and the policy measures that could support them. Given the involvement of PSI in the ECOGAS project, especial emphasis is put on the production of bio-SNG from wood via gasification and methanation of syngas and on hydrothermal gasification of woody biomass. Of specific interest as weIl is the fraction of fuel used in passenger cars that could be produced by locally harvested wood. The report is organized as follows: Section 2 presents a brief description of the MARKAL model. Section 3 describes the results of the base case scenario, which represents a plausible, 'middle-of-the-road' development of the Swiss energy system. Section 4 discusses results illustrating the conditions under which the wood-based methanation technology could become competitive in the Swiss energy market, the role of oil and gas prices, subsidies to methanation technologies and the introduction of a competing technology, namely the wood-based Fischer-Tropsch synthesis. FinaIly, section 5 outlines some conclusions from this analysis. (author)

  18. Methane from wood

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schulz, T. F.; Barreto, L.; Kypreos, S.; Stucki, S.

    2005-07-01

    The role of wood-based energy technologies in the Swiss energy system in the long-term is examined using the energy-system Swiss MARKAL model. The Swiss MARKAL model is a 'bottom-up' energy-systems optimization model that allows a detailed representation of energy technologies. The model has been developed as a joint effort between the Energy Economics Group (EEG) at Paul Scherrer Institute PSI) and the University of Geneva and is currently used at PSI-EEG. Using the Swiss MARKAL model, this study examines the conditions under which wood-based energy technologies could play a role in the Swiss energy system, the most attractive pathways for their use and the policy measures that could support them. Given the involvement of PSI in the ECOGAS project, especial emphasis is put on the production of bio-SNG from wood via gasification and methanation of syngas and on hydrothermal gasification of woody biomass. Of specific interest as weIl is the fraction of fuel used in passenger cars that could be produced by locally harvested wood. The report is organized as follows: Section 2 presents a brief description of the MARKAL model. Section 3 describes the results of the base case scenario, which represents a plausible, 'middle-of-the-road' development of the Swiss energy system. Section 4 discusses results illustrating the conditions under which the wood-based methanation technology could become competitive in the Swiss energy market, the role of oil and gas prices, subsidies to methanation technologies and the introduction of a competing technology, namely the wood-based Fischer-Tropsch synthesis. FinaIly, section 5 outlines some conclusions from this analysis. (author)

  19. A case study in data audit and modelling methodology-Australia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Apelbaum, John

    2009-01-01

    The purpose of the paper is to outline a rigorous, spatially consistent and cost-effective transport planning tool that projects travel demand, energy and emissions for all modes associated with domestic and international transport. The planning tool (Aus e Tran) is a multi-modal, multi-fuel and multi-regional macroeconomic and demographic-based computational model of the Australian transport sector that overcomes some of the gaps associated with existing strategic level transport emission models. The paper also identifies a number of key data issues that need to be resolved prior to model development with particular reference to the Australian environment. The strategic model structure endogenously derives transport demand, energy and emissions by jurisdiction, vehicle type, emission type and transport service for both freight and passenger transport. Importantly, the analytical framework delineates the national transport task, energy consumed and emissions according to region, state/territory of origin and jurisdictional protocols, provides an audit mechanism for the evaluation of the methodological framework, integrates a mathematical protocol to derive time series FFC emission factors and allows for the impact of non-registered road vehicles on transport, fuel and emissions.

  20. A case study in data audit and modelling methodology-Australia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Apelbaum, John [Apelbaum Consulting Group, 750 Blackburn Road, Melbourne VIC 3170 (Australia)], E-mail: john@apelbaumconsulting.com.au

    2009-10-15

    The purpose of the paper is to outline a rigorous, spatially consistent and cost-effective transport planning tool that projects travel demand, energy and emissions for all modes associated with domestic and international transport. The planning tool (Aus{sub e}Tran) is a multi-modal, multi-fuel and multi-regional macroeconomic and demographic-based computational model of the Australian transport sector that overcomes some of the gaps associated with existing strategic level transport emission models. The paper also identifies a number of key data issues that need to be resolved prior to model development with particular reference to the Australian environment. The strategic model structure endogenously derives transport demand, energy and emissions by jurisdiction, vehicle type, emission type and transport service for both freight and passenger transport. Importantly, the analytical framework delineates the national transport task, energy consumed and emissions according to region, state/territory of origin and jurisdictional protocols, provides an audit mechanism for the evaluation of the methodological framework, integrates a mathematical protocol to derive time series FFC emission factors and allows for the impact of non-registered road vehicles on transport, fuel and emissions.

  1. Parameters-related uncertainty in modeling sugar cane yield with an agro-Land Surface Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valade, A.; Ciais, P.; Vuichard, N.; Viovy, N.; Ruget, F.; Gabrielle, B.

    2012-12-01

    Agro-Land Surface Models (agro-LSM) have been developed from the coupling of specific crop models and large-scale generic vegetation models. They aim at accounting for the spatial distribution and variability of energy, water and carbon fluxes within soil-vegetation-atmosphere continuum with a particular emphasis on how crop phenology and agricultural management practice influence the turbulent fluxes exchanged with the atmosphere, and the underlying water and carbon pools. A part of the uncertainty in these models is related to the many parameters included in the models' equations. In this study, we quantify the parameter-based uncertainty in the simulation of sugar cane biomass production with the agro-LSM ORCHIDEE-STICS on a multi-regional approach with data from sites in Australia, La Reunion and Brazil. First, the main source of uncertainty for the output variables NPP, GPP, and sensible heat flux (SH) is determined through a screening of the main parameters of the model on a multi-site basis leading to the selection of a subset of most sensitive parameters causing most of the uncertainty. In a second step, a sensitivity analysis is carried out on the parameters selected from the screening analysis at a regional scale. For this, a Monte-Carlo sampling method associated with the calculation of Partial Ranked Correlation Coefficients is used. First, we quantify the sensitivity of the output variables to individual input parameters on a regional scale for two regions of intensive sugar cane cultivation in Australia and Brazil. Then, we quantify the overall uncertainty in the simulation's outputs propagated from the uncertainty in the input parameters. Seven parameters are identified by the screening procedure as driving most of the uncertainty in the agro-LSM ORCHIDEE-STICS model output at all sites. These parameters control photosynthesis (optimal temperature of photosynthesis, optimal carboxylation rate), radiation interception (extinction coefficient), root

  2. Multi-regional investigation of the relationship between functional MRI blood oxygenation level dependent (BOLD activation and GABA concentration.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ashley D Harris

    Full Text Available Several recent studies have reported an inter-individual correlation between regional GABA concentration, as measured by MRS, and the amplitude of the functional blood oxygenation level dependent (BOLD response in the same region. In this study, we set out to investigate whether this coupling generalizes across cortex. In 18 healthy participants, we performed edited MRS measurements of GABA and BOLD-fMRI experiments using regionally related activation paradigms. Regions and tasks were the: occipital cortex with a visual grating stimulus; auditory cortex with a white noise stimulus; sensorimotor cortex with a finger-tapping task; frontal eye field with a saccade task; and dorsolateral prefrontal cortex with a working memory task. In contrast to the prior literature, no correlation between GABA concentration and BOLD activation was detected in any region. The origin of this discrepancy is not clear. Subtle differences in study design or insufficient power may cause differing results; these and other potential reasons for the discrepant results are discussed. This negative result, although it should be interpreted with caution, has a larger sample size than prior positive results, and suggests that the relationship between GABA and the BOLD response may be more complex than previously thought.

  3. EXIOBASE 3: Developing a Time Series of Detailed Environmentally Extended Multi-Regional Input-Output Tables

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stadler, K.; Wood, R.; Bulavskaya, T.; Södersten, C.J.; Simas, M.; Schmidt, S.; Usubiaga, A.; Acosta-Fernández, J.; Kuenen, J.; Bruckner, M.; Giljum, S.; Lutter, S.; Merciai, S.; Schmidt, J.H.; Theurl, M.C.; Plutzar, C.; Kastner, T.; Eisenmenger, N.; Erb, K.H.; Koning, A. de; Tukker, A.

    2018-01-01

    Environmentally extended multiregional input-output (EE MRIO) tables have emerged as a key framework to provide a comprehensive description of the global economy and analyze its effects on the environment. Of the available EE MRIO databases, EXIOBASE stands out as a database compatible with the

  4. Ethnographic context and spatial coherence of climate indicators for farming communities – A multi-regional comparative assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vincent Moron

    2015-01-01

    The ethnographic surveys, as well as yield–climate functions, emphasized the role played by various intra-seasonal characteristics of the rainy seasons beyond the seasonal rainfall amounts, in both actual yields and people’s representations and/or crop management strategies. For instance, the onset of the rainy season in East Africa and North Cameroon, the season duration in the driest district of the eastern slopes of Mount Kenya, or rains at the core (August and at the end of the rainy season in North Cameroon have been highlighted. The dynamics of farming systems (i.e. soybeanization in Central Argentina, increasing popularity of maize in East Africa, recent decline of cotton in North Cameroon were also emphasized as active drivers; these slow changes could increase climatic vulnerability (i.e. soybean is far more sensitive to rainfall variations than wheat, maize is less drought-resistant than sorghum or millet, at least for the least flexible actors (such as the non-capitalized farmers in Central Argentina. The cross between ethnographic surveys and climatic analyses enabled us to identify climate variables that are both useful to farmers and potentially predictable. These variables do not appear to be common across the surveyed fields. The best example is the rainy season onset date whose variations, depending on regions, crop species and farming practices may either have a major/minor role in crop performance and/or crop management, or may have a high/low potential predictability.

  5. Eradication of the cotton boll weevil (Anthonomus grandis) in the United States - A successful multi-regional approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cunningham, Gary L.; Grefenstette, William J.

    2000-01-01

    The cotton boll weevil, Anthonomus grandis Boheman, is believed to have entered the US from Mexico and was first detected in South Texas in 1892. Since that time, the pest has spread throughout most of the nation's cotton-producing areas and has become the industry's number one nemesis. More than US$13 billion in economic losses have occurred since its introduction, with recent annual expenditures of more than US$300 million for control costs alone. Although the weevil has been eradicated from over 4 million acres, its presence in non-programme areas continues to dictate production practices within the mid-south, Texas and Oklahoma

  6. A multi-region assessment of population rates of cardiac catheterization and yield of high-risk coronary artery disease

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Clement Fiona M

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background There is variation in cardiac catheterization utilization across jurisdictions. Previous work from Alberta, Canada, showed no evidence of a plateau in the yield of high-risk disease at cardiac catheterization rates as high as 600 per 100,000 population suggesting that the optimal rate is higher. This work aims 1 To determine if a previously demonstrated linear relationship between the yield of high-risk coronary disease and cardiac catheterization rates persists with contemporary data and 2 to explore whether the linear relationship exists in other jurisdictions. Methods Detailed clinical information on all patients undergoing cardiac catheterization in 3 Canadian provinces was available through the Alberta Provincial Project for Outcomes Assessment in Coronary Heart (APPROACH disease and partner initiatives in British Columbia and Nova Scotia. Population rates of catheterization and high-risk coronary disease detection for each health region in these three provinces, and age-adjusted rates produced using direct standardization. A mixed effects regression analysis was performed to assess the relationship between catheterization rate and high-risk coronary disease detection. Results In the contemporary Alberta data, we found a linear relationship between the population catheterization rate and the high-risk yield. Although the yield was slightly less in time period 2 (2002-2006 than in time period 1(1995-2001, there was no statistical evidence of a plateau. The linear relationship between catheterization rate and high-risk yield was similarly demonstrated in British Columbia and Nova Scotia and appears to extend, without a plateau in yield, to rates over 800 procedures per 100,000 population. Conclusions Our study demonstrates a consistent finding, over time and across jurisdictions, of linearly increasing detection of high-risk CAD as population rates of cardiac catheterization increase. This internationally-relevant finding can inform country-level planning of invasive cardiac care services.

  7. A multi-region approach to assessing fiscal and farm level consequences of government support for farm risk management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joseph Cooper

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The 2014 U.S. Farm Act has new programs for providing producers with commodity support payments covering “shallow losses” in revenue. We develop an approach to examine the sensitivity of the farmer’s downside risk protection to marginal changes in the deductible in shallow loss program scenarios. The copula approach we use simultaneously considers price and yield correlation across all U.S. counties producing several major field crops. We find that average payments under the shallow loss program scenarios are elastic with respect to the program’s payment coverage rate. To empirically assess where shallow loss is likely to most benefit producers, we map at the county level the ratios of expected shallow loss payments to crop insurance premiums for corn, soybeans, cotton, and winter wheat. As tail dependencies among individual crop yield densities may vary spatially, we propose a method for grouping counties in a t-copula that allows for heterogeneity in tail dependencies.

  8. Multi area and multistage expansion-planning of electricity supply with sustainable energy development criteria: a multi objective model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Unsihuay-Vila, Clodomiro; Marangon-Lima, J.W.; Souza, A.C Zambroni de [Universidade Federal de Itajuba (UNIFEI), MG (Brazil)], emails: clodomirounsihuayvila @gmail.com, marangon@unifei.edu.br, zambroni@unifei.edu.br; Perez-Arriaga, I.J. [Universidad Pontificia Comillas, Madrid (Spain)], email: ipa@mit.edu

    2010-07-01

    A novel multi objective, multi area and multistage model to long-term expansion-planning of integrated generation and transmission corridors incorporating sustainable energy developing is presented in this paper. The proposed MESEDES model is a multi-regional multi-objective and 'bottom-up' energy model which considers the electricity generation/transmission value-chain, i.e., power generation alternatives including renewable, nuclear and traditional thermal generation along with transmission corridors. The model decides the optimal location and timing of the electricity generation/transmission abroad the multistage planning horizon. The MESEDES model considers three objectives belonging to sustainable energy development criteria such as: a) the minimization of investments and operation costs of : power generation, transmission corridors, energy efficiency (demand side management (DSM) programs) considering CO2 capture technologies; b) minimization of Life Cycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions (LC GHG); c) maximization of the diversification of electricity generation mix. The proposed model consider aspects of the carbon abatement policy under the CDM - Clean Development Mechanism or European Union Greenhouse Gas Emission Trading Scheme. A case study is used to illustrate the proposed framework. (author)

  9. Energy scenarios for the nordic region towards 2035

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fidje, Audun

    2008-07-01

    This report summarizes the assumptions, methodology and main results of the MARKAL analysis of options for a sustainable energy future in the Nordic region. The work is based on the Nordic MARKAL model, which has been modified such that it may be used to analyse a large number of scenarios, typically 500 to 5000. The scenarios are developed by analysis a set of strategies and uncertainties. All these strategies and uncertainties are combined such that we generate in total 1 152 scenarios. The main purpose of generating a large number of scenarios was to facilitate for multi-criteria trade-off analysis. Overall results from this analysis show that large reductions of CO{sub 2} emissions are possible at CO{sub 2} cost below 50 EUR/t CO{sub 2} (author)

  10. A Footprint Family extended MRIO model to support Europe's transition to a One Planet Economy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galli, Alessandro; Weinzettel, Jan; Cranston, Gemma; Ercin, Ertug

    2013-09-01

    Currently, the European economy is using nearly three times the ecological assets that are locally available. This situation cannot be sustained indefinitely. Tools are needed that can help reverse the unsustainable trend. In 2010, an EC funded One Planet Economy Network: Europe (OPEN:EU) project was launched to develop the evidence and innovative practical tools that will allow policy-makers and civil society to identify policy interventions to transform Europe into a One Planet Economy, by 2050. Building on the premise that no indicator alone is able to comprehensively monitor (progress towards) sustainability, the project has drawn on the Ecological, Carbon and Water Footprints to define a Footprint Family suite of indicators, to track human pressure on the planet. An environmentally-extended multi-regional input-output (MRIO) model has then been developed to group the Footprint Family under a common framework and combine the indicators in the family with national economic accounts and trade statistics. Although unable to monitor the full spectrum of human pressures, once grouped within the MRIO model, the Footprint Family is able to assess the appropriation of ecological assets, GHG emissions as well as freshwater consumption and pollution associated with consumption of specific products and services within a specified country. Using MRIO models within the context of Footprint analyses also enables the Footprint Family to take into account full production chains with technologies specific to country of origin. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. One-velocity neutron diffusion calculations based on a two-group reactor model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bingulac, S; Radanovic, L; Lazarevic, B; Matausek, M; Pop-Jordanov, J [Boris Kidric Institute of Nuclear Sciences, Vinca, Belgrade (Yugoslavia)

    1965-07-01

    Many processes in reactor physics are described by the energy dependent neutron diffusion equations which for many practical purposes can often be reduced to one-dimensional two-group equations. Though such two-group models are satisfactory from the standpoint of accuracy, they require rather extensive computations which are usually iterative and involve the use of digital computers. In many applications, however, and particularly in dynamic analyses, where the studies are performed on analogue computers, it is preferable to avoid iterative calculations. The usual practice in such situations is to resort to one group models, which allow the solution to be expressed analytically. However, the loss in accuracy is rather great particularly when several media of different properties are involved. This paper describes a procedure by which the solution of the two-group neutron diffusion. equations can be expressed analytically in the form which, from the computational standpoint, is as simple as the one-group model, but retains the accuracy of the two-group treatment. In describing the procedure, the case of a multi-region nuclear reactor of cylindrical geometry is treated, but the method applied and the results obtained are of more general application. Another approach in approximate solution of diffusion equations, suggested by Galanin is applicable only in special ideal cases.

  12. Exploiting magnetic resonance angiography imaging improves model estimation of BOLD signal.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhenghui Hu

    Full Text Available The change of BOLD signal relies heavily upon the resting blood volume fraction ([Formula: see text] associated with regional vasculature. However, existing hemodynamic data assimilation studies pretermit such concern. They simply assign the value in a physiologically plausible range to get over ill-conditioning of the assimilation problem and fail to explore actual [Formula: see text]. Such performance might lead to unreliable model estimation. In this work, we present the first exploration of the influence of [Formula: see text] on fMRI data assimilation, where actual [Formula: see text] within a given cortical area was calibrated by an MR angiography experiment and then was augmented into the assimilation scheme. We have investigated the impact of [Formula: see text] on single-region data assimilation and multi-region data assimilation (dynamic cause modeling, DCM in a classical flashing checkerboard experiment. Results show that the employment of an assumed [Formula: see text] in fMRI data assimilation is only suitable for fMRI signal reconstruction and activation detection grounded on this signal, and not suitable for estimation of unobserved states and effective connectivity study. We thereby argue that introducing physically realistic [Formula: see text] in the assimilation process may provide more reliable estimation of physiological information, which contributes to a better understanding of the underlying hemodynamic processes. Such an effort is valuable and should be well appreciated.

  13. Model-Based Building Detection from Low-Cost Optical Sensors Onboard Unmanned Aerial Vehicles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karantzalos, K.; Koutsourakis, P.; Kalisperakis, I.; Grammatikopoulos, L.

    2015-08-01

    The automated and cost-effective building detection in ultra high spatial resolution is of major importance for various engineering and smart city applications. To this end, in this paper, a model-based building detection technique has been developed able to extract and reconstruct buildings from UAV aerial imagery and low-cost imaging sensors. In particular, the developed approach through advanced structure from motion, bundle adjustment and dense image matching computes a DSM and a true orthomosaic from the numerous GoPro images which are characterised by important geometric distortions and fish-eye effect. An unsupervised multi-region, graphcut segmentation and a rule-based classification is responsible for delivering the initial multi-class classification map. The DTM is then calculated based on inpaininting and mathematical morphology process. A data fusion process between the detected building from the DSM/DTM and the classification map feeds a grammar-based building reconstruction and scene building are extracted and reconstructed. Preliminary experimental results appear quite promising with the quantitative evaluation indicating detection rates at object level of 88% regarding the correctness and above 75% regarding the detection completeness.

  14. Modelling Practice

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cameron, Ian; Gani, Rafiqul

    2011-01-01

    This chapter deals with the practicalities of building, testing, deploying and maintaining models. It gives specific advice for each phase of the modelling cycle. To do this, a modelling framework is introduced which covers: problem and model definition; model conceptualization; model data...... requirements; model construction; model solution; model verification; model validation and finally model deployment and maintenance. Within the adopted methodology, each step is discussedthrough the consideration of key issues and questions relevant to the modelling activity. Practical advice, based on many...

  15. Leadership Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freeman, Thomas J.

    This paper discusses six different models of organizational structure and leadership, including the scalar chain or pyramid model, the continuum model, the grid model, the linking pin model, the contingency model, and the circle or democratic model. Each model is examined in a separate section that describes the model and its development, lists…

  16. Models and role models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    ten Cate, Jacob M

    2015-01-01

    Developing experimental models to understand dental caries has been the theme in our research group. Our first, the pH-cycling model, was developed to investigate the chemical reactions in enamel or dentine, which lead to dental caries. It aimed to leverage our understanding of the fluoride mode of action and was also utilized for the formulation of oral care products. In addition, we made use of intra-oral (in situ) models to study other features of the oral environment that drive the de/remineralization balance in individual patients. This model addressed basic questions, such as how enamel and dentine are affected by challenges in the oral cavity, as well as practical issues related to fluoride toothpaste efficacy. The observation that perhaps fluoride is not sufficiently potent to reduce dental caries in the present-day society triggered us to expand our knowledge in the bacterial aetiology of dental caries. For this we developed the Amsterdam Active Attachment biofilm model. Different from studies on planktonic ('single') bacteria, this biofilm model captures bacteria in a habitat similar to dental plaque. With data from the combination of these models, it should be possible to study separate processes which together may lead to dental caries. Also products and novel agents could be evaluated that interfere with either of the processes. Having these separate models in place, a suggestion is made to design computer models to encompass the available information. Models but also role models are of the utmost importance in bringing and guiding research and researchers. 2015 S. Karger AG, Basel

  17. Modeling the Impacts of Urbanization and Industrial Transformation on Water Resources in China: An Integrated Hydro-Economic CGE Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li Jiang

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Pressure on existing water resources in China is expected to increase with undergoing rapid demographic transformation, economic development, and global climate changes. We investigate the economy-wide impacts of projected urban population growth and economic structural change on water use and allocation in China. Using a multi-regional CGE (Computable General Equilibrium model, TERM (The Enormous Regional Model, we explore the implications of selected future water scenarios for China’s nine watershed regions. Our results indicate that urbanization and industrial transformation in China will raise the opportunity cost of water use and increase the competition for water between non-agricultural users and irrigation water users. The growth in water demand for domestic and industrial uses reduces the amount of water allocated to agriculture, particularly lower-value and water-intensive field crops. As a response, farmers have the incentive to shift their agricultural operations from traditional field crop production to higher-value livestock or intensive crop production. In addition, our results suggest that growing water demand due to urbanization and industrial transformation will raise the shadow price of water in all nine river basins. Finally, we find that national economic growth is largely attributable to urbanization and non-agricultural productivity growth.

  18. Model(ing) Law

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Carlson, Kerstin

    The International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY) was the first and most celebrated of a wave of international criminal tribunals (ICTs) built in the 1990s designed to advance liberalism through international criminal law. Model(ing) Justice examines the case law of the ICTY...

  19. Models and role models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    ten Cate, J.M.

    2015-01-01

    Developing experimental models to understand dental caries has been the theme in our research group. Our first, the pH-cycling model, was developed to investigate the chemical reactions in enamel or dentine, which lead to dental caries. It aimed to leverage our understanding of the fluoride mode of

  20. Modelling SDL, Modelling Languages

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Piefel

    2007-02-01

    Full Text Available Today's software systems are too complex to implement them and model them using only one language. As a result, modern software engineering uses different languages for different levels of abstraction and different system aspects. Thus to handle an increasing number of related or integrated languages is the most challenging task in the development of tools. We use object oriented metamodelling to describe languages. Object orientation allows us to derive abstract reusable concept definitions (concept classes from existing languages. This language definition technique concentrates on semantic abstractions rather than syntactical peculiarities. We present a set of common concept classes that describe structure, behaviour, and data aspects of high-level modelling languages. Our models contain syntax modelling using the OMG MOF as well as static semantic constraints written in OMG OCL. We derive metamodels for subsets of SDL and UML from these common concepts, and we show for parts of these languages that they can be modelled and related to each other through the same abstract concepts.

  1. Modelling the models

    CERN Multimedia

    Anaïs Schaeffer

    2012-01-01

    By analysing the production of mesons in the forward region of LHC proton-proton collisions, the LHCf collaboration has provided key information needed to calibrate extremely high-energy cosmic ray models.   Average transverse momentum (pT) as a function of rapidity loss ∆y. Black dots represent LHCf data and the red diamonds represent SPS experiment UA7 results. The predictions of hadronic interaction models are shown by open boxes (sibyll 2.1), open circles (qgsjet II-03) and open triangles (epos 1.99). Among these models, epos 1.99 shows the best overall agreement with the LHCf data. LHCf is dedicated to the measurement of neutral particles emitted at extremely small angles in the very forward region of LHC collisions. Two imaging calorimeters – Arm1 and Arm2 – take data 140 m either side of the ATLAS interaction point. “The physics goal of this type of analysis is to provide data for calibrating the hadron interaction models – the well-known &...

  2. Modeling sugarcane yield with a process-based model from site to continental scale: uncertainties arising from model structure and parameter values

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valade, A.; Ciais, P.; Vuichard, N.; Viovy, N.; Caubel, A.; Huth, N.; Marin, F.; Martiné, J.-F.

    2014-06-01

    Agro-land surface models (agro-LSM) have been developed from the integration of specific crop processes into large-scale generic land surface models that allow calculating the spatial distribution and variability of energy, water and carbon fluxes within the soil-vegetation-atmosphere continuum. When developing agro-LSM models, particular attention must be given to the effects of crop phenology and management on the turbulent fluxes exchanged with the atmosphere, and the underlying water and carbon pools. A part of the uncertainty of agro-LSM models is related to their usually large number of parameters. In this study, we quantify the parameter-values uncertainty in the simulation of sugarcane biomass production with the agro-LSM ORCHIDEE-STICS, using a multi-regional approach with data from sites in Australia, La Réunion and Brazil. In ORCHIDEE-STICS, two models are chained: STICS, an agronomy model that calculates phenology and management, and ORCHIDEE, a land surface model that calculates biomass and other ecosystem variables forced by STICS phenology. First, the parameters that dominate the uncertainty of simulated biomass at harvest date are determined through a screening of 67 different parameters of both STICS and ORCHIDEE on a multi-site basis. Secondly, the uncertainty of harvested biomass attributable to those most sensitive parameters is quantified and specifically attributed to either STICS (phenology, management) or to ORCHIDEE (other ecosystem variables including biomass) through distinct Monte Carlo runs. The uncertainty on parameter values is constrained using observations by calibrating the model independently at seven sites. In a third step, a sensitivity analysis is carried out by varying the most sensitive parameters to investigate their effects at continental scale. A Monte Carlo sampling method associated with the calculation of partial ranked correlation coefficients is used to quantify the sensitivity of harvested biomass to input

  3. The Impact of Shale Gas on the Cost and Feasibility of Meeting Climate Targets—A Global Energy System Model Analysis and an Exploration of Uncertainties

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sheridan Few

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available There exists considerable uncertainty over both shale and conventional gas resource availability and extraction costs, as well as the fugitive methane emissions associated with shale gas extraction and its possible role in mitigating climate change. This study uses a multi-region energy system model, TIAM (TIMES integrated assessment model, to consider the impact of a range of conventional and shale gas cost and availability assessments on mitigation scenarios aimed at achieving a limit to global warming of below 2 °C in 2100, with a 50% likelihood. When adding shale gas to the global energy mix, the reduction to the global energy system cost is relatively small (up to 0.4%, and the mitigation cost increases by 1%–3% under all cost assumptions. The impact of a “dash for shale gas”, of unavailability of carbon capture and storage, of increased barriers to investment in low carbon technologies, and of higher than expected leakage rates, are also considered; and are each found to have the potential to increase the cost and reduce feasibility of meeting global temperature goals. We conclude that the extraction of shale gas is not likely to significantly reduce the effort required to mitigate climate change under globally coordinated action, but could increase required mitigation effort if not handled sufficiently carefully.

  4. Electric vehicles and India's low carbon passenger transport: A long-term co-benefits assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dhar, Subash; Pathak, Minal; Shukla, Priyadarshi

    2017-01-01

    Electric vehicles have attracted the attention of India's policy makers as clean technology alternatives due to their multiple advantages like higher efficiency and lower air pollution in short to medium term and reduced CO2 emissions as electricity gets decarbonized in the long-run under low...... carbon scenarios. This paper uses an energy system model ANSWER-MARKAL to analyse the role of electric vehicles (EV) in India. The modelling assessment spans the period 2010 to 2050 and analyses future EV demand in India under three scenarios: i) a ‘Reference’ scenario which includes the continuation...

  5. Hydrogen energy applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Okken, P.A.

    1992-10-01

    For the Energy and Material consumption Scenarios (EMS), by which emission reduction of CO 2 and other greenhouse gases can be calculated, calculations are executed by means of the MARKAL model (MARket ALlocation, a process-oriented dynamic linear programming model to minimize the costs of the energy system) for the Netherlands energy economy in the period 2000-2040, using a variable CO 2 emission limit. The results of these calculations are published in a separate report (ECN-C--92-066). The use of hydrogen can play an important part in the above-mentioned period. An overview of several options to produce or use hydrogen is given and added to the MARKAL model. In this report techno-economical data and estimates were compiled for several H 2 -application options, which subsequently also are added to the MARKAL model. After a brief chapter on hydrogen and the impact on the reduction of CO 2 emission attention is paid to stationary and mobile applications. The stationary options concern the mixing of natural gas with 10% hydrogen, a 100% substitution of natural gas by hydrogen, the use of a direct steam generator (combustion of hydrogen by means of pure oxygen, followed by steam injection to produce steam), and the use of fuel cells. The mobile options concern the use of hydrogen in the transportation sector. In brief, attention is paid to a hydrogen passenger car with an Otto engine, and a hydrogen passenger car with a fuel cell, a hybrid (metal)-hydride car, a hydrogen truck, a truck with a methanol fuel cell, a hydrogen bus, an inland canal boat with a hydrogen fuel cell, and finally a hydrogen airplane. 2 figs., 15 tabs., 1 app., 26 refs

  6. Dealing with uncertainty together. Summary of Annex VI (1996-1998)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kram, T.

    1999-10-01

    In Annex VI, the work of the Energy Technology Systems Analysis Programme (ETSAP) increasingly reached out to the international community. Especially in connection with the preparation for the Conferences of Parties under the United National Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC), the analytic tools and databases developed by ETSAP proved their worth in national analyses of greenhouse gas emission restrictions, multinational comparisons of such responses, and evaluations of the benefits of international co-operation. Anticipating the urgent need for this kind of capability, the ETSAP community improved the well-established MARKAL energy systems model and extended it in new directions. These included linking national models, expanding system boundaries in time and place, joining MARKAL with economic models, adding material flows, and developing approaches to treating uncertainty. In various forms, the MARKAL progeny now provide fully integrated energy/economy/environment models. These enable the simultaneous assessment of multiple, linked issues such as energy security, atmospheric acidification and climate change. Almost alone among the models being used to evaluate greenhouse gas emission reductions, the MARKAL models are based explicitly on the specific technologies that must produce the reductions. The basis for this achievement is the international network of systems analysts that has been built up under the aegis of the International Energy Agency (IEA) during the past two decades. During Annex VI, the Republic of Korea and Turkey joined the active members of the IEA Implementing Agreement: Australia, Belgium, Germany, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, United States and the Commission of the European Union. The group meets semiannually, usually in joint workshops with other groups doing related work, to report progress, provide peer review, and build on each other's accomplishments. Participants co-operate in model development

  7. Modelling Overview

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Lars Bjørn; Vesterager, Johan

    This report provides an overview of the existing models of global manufacturing, describes the required modelling views and associated methods and identifies tools, which can provide support for this modelling activity.The model adopted for global manufacturing is that of an extended enterprise s...

  8. Top-down/bottom-up description of electricity sector for Switzerland using the GEM-E3 computable general equilibrium model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krakowski, R. A.

    2006-06-01

    Participation of the Paul Scherrer Institute (PSI) in the advancement and extension of the multi-region, Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model GEM-E3 (CES/KUL, 2002) focused primarily on two top-level facets: a) extension of the model database and model calibration, particularly as related to the second component of this study, which is; b) advancement of the dynamics of innovation and investment, primarily through the incorporation of Exogenous Technical Learning (ETL) into he Bottom-Up (BU, technology-based) part of the dynamic upgrade; this latter activity also included the completion of the dynamic coupling of the BU description of the electricity sector with the 'Top-Down' (TD, econometric) description of the economy inherent to the GEM-E3 CGE model. The results of this two- component study are described in two parts that have been combined in this single summary report: Part I describes the methodology and gives illustrative results from the BUTD integration, as well as describing the approach to and giving preliminary results from incorporating an ETL description into the BU component of the overall model; Part II reports on the calibration component of task in terms of: a) formulating a BU technology database for Switzerland based on previous work; incorporation of that database into the GEM-E3 model; and calibrating the BU database with the TD database embodied in the (Swiss) Social Accounting Matrix (SAM). The BUTD coupling along with the ETL incorporation described in Part I represent the major effort embodied in this investigation, but this effort could not be completed without the calibration preamble reported herein as Part II. A brief summary of the scope of each of these key study components is given. (author)

  9. Top-down/bottom-up description of electricity sector for Switzerland using the GEM-E3 computable general equilibrium model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Krakowski, R. A

    2006-06-15

    Participation of the Paul Scherrer Institute (PSI) in the advancement and extension of the multi-region, Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model GEM-E3 (CES/KUL, 2002) focused primarily on two top-level facets: a) extension of the model database and model calibration, particularly as related to the second component of this study, which is; b) advancement of the dynamics of innovation and investment, primarily through the incorporation of Exogenous Technical Learning (ETL) into he Bottom-Up (BU, technology-based) part of the dynamic upgrade; this latter activity also included the completion of the dynamic coupling of the BU description of the electricity sector with the 'Top-Down' (TD, econometric) description of the economy inherent to the GEM-E3 CGE model. The results of this two- component study are described in two parts that have been combined in this single summary report: Part I describes the methodology and gives illustrative results from the BUTD integration, as well as describing the approach to and giving preliminary results from incorporating an ETL description into the BU component of the overall model; Part II reports on the calibration component of task in terms of: a) formulating a BU technology database for Switzerland based on previous work; incorporation of that database into the GEM-E3 model; and calibrating the BU database with the TD database embodied in the (Swiss) Social Accounting Matrix (SAM). The BUTD coupling along with the ETL incorporation described in Part I represent the major effort embodied in this investigation, but this effort could not be completed without the calibration preamble reported herein as Part II. A brief summary of the scope of each of these key study components is given. (author)

  10. Document Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A.A. Malykh

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, the concept of locally simple models is considered. Locally simple models are arbitrarily complex models built from relatively simple components. A lot of practically important domains of discourse can be described as locally simple models, for example, business models of enterprises and companies. Up to now, research in human reasoning automation has been mainly concentrated around the most intellectually intensive activities, such as automated theorem proving. On the other hand, the retailer business model is formed from ”jobs”, and each ”job” can be modelled and automated more or less easily. At the same time, the whole retailer model as an integrated system is extremely complex. In this paper, we offer a variant of the mathematical definition of a locally simple model. This definition is intended for modelling a wide range of domains. Therefore, we also must take into account the perceptual and psychological issues. Logic is elitist, and if we want to attract to our models as many people as possible, we need to hide this elitism behind some metaphor, to which ’ordinary’ people are accustomed. As such a metaphor, we use the concept of a document, so our locally simple models are called document models. Document models are built in the paradigm of semantic programming. This allows us to achieve another important goal - to make the documentary models executable. Executable models are models that can act as practical information systems in the described domain of discourse. Thus, if our model is executable, then programming becomes redundant. The direct use of a model, instead of its programming coding, brings important advantages, for example, a drastic cost reduction for development and maintenance. Moreover, since the model is well and sound, and not dissolved within programming modules, we can directly apply AI tools, in particular, machine learning. This significantly expands the possibilities for automation and

  11. Model theory

    CERN Document Server

    Chang, CC

    2012-01-01

    Model theory deals with a branch of mathematical logic showing connections between a formal language and its interpretations or models. This is the first and most successful textbook in logical model theory. Extensively updated and corrected in 1990 to accommodate developments in model theoretic methods - including classification theory and nonstandard analysis - the third edition added entirely new sections, exercises, and references. Each chapter introduces an individual method and discusses specific applications. Basic methods of constructing models include constants, elementary chains, Sko

  12. Modeling Methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Healy, Richard W.; Scanlon, Bridget R.

    2010-01-01

    Simulation models are widely used in all types of hydrologic studies, and many of these models can be used to estimate recharge. Models can provide important insight into the functioning of hydrologic systems by identifying factors that influence recharge. The predictive capability of models can be used to evaluate how changes in climate, water use, land use, and other factors may affect recharge rates. Most hydrological simulation models, including watershed models and groundwater-flow models, are based on some form of water-budget equation, so the material in this chapter is closely linked to that in Chapter 2. Empirical models that are not based on a water-budget equation have also been used for estimating recharge; these models generally take the form of simple estimation equations that define annual recharge as a function of precipitation and possibly other climatic data or watershed characteristics.Model complexity varies greatly. Some models are simple accounting models; others attempt to accurately represent the physics of water movement through each compartment of the hydrologic system. Some models provide estimates of recharge explicitly; for example, a model based on the Richards equation can simulate water movement from the soil surface through the unsaturated zone to the water table. Recharge estimates can be obtained indirectly from other models. For example, recharge is a parameter in groundwater-flow models that solve for hydraulic head (i.e. groundwater level). Recharge estimates can be obtained through a model calibration process in which recharge and other model parameter values are adjusted so that simulated water levels agree with measured water levels. The simulation that provides the closest agreement is called the best fit, and the recharge value used in that simulation is the model-generated estimate of recharge.

  13. Galactic models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buchler, J.R.; Gottesman, S.T.; Hunter, J.H. Jr.

    1990-01-01

    Various papers on galactic models are presented. Individual topics addressed include: observations relating to galactic mass distributions; the structure of the Galaxy; mass distribution in spiral galaxies; rotation curves of spiral galaxies in clusters; grand design, multiple arm, and flocculent spiral galaxies; observations of barred spirals; ringed galaxies; elliptical galaxies; the modal approach to models of galaxies; self-consistent models of spiral galaxies; dynamical models of spiral galaxies; N-body models. Also discussed are: two-component models of galaxies; simulations of cloudy, gaseous galactic disks; numerical experiments on the stability of hot stellar systems; instabilities of slowly rotating galaxies; spiral structure as a recurrent instability; model gas flows in selected barred spiral galaxies; bar shapes and orbital stochasticity; three-dimensional models; polar ring galaxies; dynamical models of polar rings

  14. Model-model Perencanaan Strategik

    OpenAIRE

    Amirin, Tatang M

    2005-01-01

    The process of strategic planning, used to be called as long-term planning, consists of several components, including strategic analysis, setting strategic direction (covering of mission, vision, and values), and action planning. Many writers develop models representing the steps of the strategic planning process, i.e. basic planning model, problem-based planning model, scenario model, and organic or self-organizing model.

  15. Event Modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bækgaard, Lars

    2001-01-01

    The purpose of this chapter is to discuss conceptual event modeling within a context of information modeling. Traditionally, information modeling has been concerned with the modeling of a universe of discourse in terms of information structures. However, most interesting universes of discourse...... are dynamic and we present a modeling approach that can be used to model such dynamics.We characterize events as both information objects and change agents (Bækgaard 1997). When viewed as information objects events are phenomena that can be observed and described. For example, borrow events in a library can...

  16. The future of the UK gas network

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dodds, Paul E.; McDowall, Will

    2013-01-01

    The UK has an extensive natural gas pipeline network supplying 84% of homes. Previous studies of decarbonisation pathways using the UK MARKAL energy system model have concluded that the low-pressure gas networks should be mostly abandoned by 2050, yet most of the iron pipes near buildings are currently being replaced early for safety reasons. Our study suggests that this programme will not lock-in the use of gas in the long-term. We examine potential future uses of the gas network in the UK energy system using an improved version of UK MARKAL that introduces a number of decarbonisation options for the gas network including bio-methane, hydrogen injection to the natural gas and conversion of the network to deliver hydrogen. We conclude that hydrogen conversion is the only gas decarbonisation option that might enable the gas networks to continue supplying energy to most buildings in the long-term, from a cost-optimal perspective. There is an opportunity for the government to adopt a long-term strategy for the gas distribution networks that either curtails the iron mains replacement programme or alters it to prepare the network for hydrogen conversion; both options could substantially reduce the long-term cost of supplying heat to UK buildings. - Highlights: • We examine the long-term future of the UK gas pipe networks using the UK MARKAL model. • The iron mains replacement programme will not lead to gas infrastructure lock-in. • Bio-methane and hydrogen injection have only a small role in our future scenarios. • The most cost-optimal strategy might be to convert the networks to deliver hydrogen. • Adopting a long-term gas strategy could reduce the cost of providing heat in the UK

  17. Multi-regional local anesthetic infiltration during laparoscopic cholecystectomy in patients receiving prophylactic multi-modal analgesia: a randomized, double-blinded, placebo-controlled study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bisgaard, T; Klarskov, B; Kristiansen, V B

    1999-01-01

    undergoing elective laparoscopic cholecystectomy. In addition, all patients received multi-modal prophylactic analgesic treatment. Fifty-eight patients were randomized to receive a total of 286 mg (66 mL) ropivacaine or 66 mL saline via periportal and intraperitoneal infiltration. During the first 3...... postoperative h, the use of morphine and antiemetics was registered, and pain and nausea were rated hourly. Daily pain intensity, pain localization, and supplemental analgesic consumption were registered the first postoperative week. Ropivacaine reduced overall pain the first two hours and incisional pain...... for the first three postoperative hours (P ropivacaine group (P

  18. Putting the C back into the ABCs: a multi-year, multi-region investigation of condom use by Ugandan youths 2003-2010.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joseph J Valadez

    Full Text Available A major strategy for preventing transmission of HIV and other STIs is the consistent use of condoms during sexual intercourse. Condom use among youths is particularly important to reduce the number of new cases and the national prevalence. Condom use has been often promoted by the Uganda National AIDS Commission. Although a number of studies have established an association between condom use at one's sexual debut and future condom use, few studies have explored this association over time, and whether the results are generalizable across multiple locations. This multi time point, multi district study assesses the relationship between sexual debut and condom use and consistent use of condoms thereafter. Uganda has used Lot Quality Assurance Sampling surveys since 2003 to monitor district level HIV programs and improve access to HIV health services. This study includes 4518 sexually active youths interviewed at five time points (2003-2010 in up to 23 districts located across Uganda. Using logistic regression, we measured the association of condom use at first sexual intercourse on recent condom usage, controlling for several factors including: age, sex, education, marital status, age at first intercourse, geographical location, and survey year. The odds of condom use at last intercourse, using a condom at last intercourse with a non-regular partner, and consistently using a condom are, respectively, 9.63 (95%WaldCI = 8.03-11.56, 3.48 (95%WaldCI = 2.27-5.33, and 11.12 (95%WaldCI = 8.95-13.81 times more likely for those individuals using condoms during their sexual debut. These values did not decrease by more than 20% when controlling for potential confounders. The results suggest that HIV prevention programs should encourage condom use among youth during sexual debut. Success with this outcome may have a lasting influence on preventing HIV and other STIs later in life.

  19. Putting the C Back into the ABCs: A Multi-Year, Multi-Region Investigation of Condom Use by Ugandan Youths 2003–2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Rosemary; Ouma, Joseph; Lwanga, Stephen K.; Moxon, Sarah

    2014-01-01

    A major strategy for preventing transmission of HIV and other STIs is the consistent use of condoms during sexual intercourse. Condom use among youths is particularly important to reduce the number of new cases and the national prevalence. Condom use has been often promoted by the Uganda National AIDS Commission. Although a number of studies have established an association between condom use at one’s sexual debut and future condom use, few studies have explored this association over time, and whether the results are generalizable across multiple locations. This multi time point, multi district study assesses the relationship between sexual debut and condom use and consistent use of condoms thereafter. Uganda has used Lot Quality Assurance Sampling surveys since 2003 to monitor district level HIV programs and improve access to HIV health services. This study includes 4518 sexually active youths interviewed at five time points (2003–2010) in up to 23 districts located across Uganda. Using logistic regression, we measured the association of condom use at first sexual intercourse on recent condom usage, controlling for several factors including: age, sex, education, marital status, age at first intercourse, geographical location, and survey year. The odds of condom use at last intercourse, using a condom at last intercourse with a non-regular partner, and consistently using a condom are, respectively, 9.63 (95%WaldCI = 8.03–11.56), 3.48 (95%WaldCI = 2.27–5.33), and 11.12 (95%WaldCI = 8.95–13.81) times more likely for those individuals using condoms during their sexual debut. These values did not decrease by more than 20% when controlling for potential confounders. The results suggest that HIV prevention programs should encourage condom use among youth during sexual debut. Success with this outcome may have a lasting influence on preventing HIV and other STIs later in life. PMID:24705381

  20. Modelling survival

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ashauer, Roman; Albert, Carlo; Augustine, Starrlight

    2016-01-01

    The General Unified Threshold model for Survival (GUTS) integrates previously published toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic models and estimates survival with explicitly defined assumptions. Importantly, GUTS accounts for time-variable exposure to the stressor. We performed three studies to test...

  1. Constitutive Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sales-Cruz, Mauricio; Piccolo, Chiara; Heitzig, Martina

    2011-01-01

    covered, illustrating several models such as the Wilson equation and NRTL equation, along with their solution strategies. A section shows how to use experimental data to regress the property model parameters using a least squares approach. A full model analysis is applied in each example that discusses...... the degrees of freedom, dependent and independent variables and solution strategy. Vapour-liquid and solid-liquid equilibrium is covered, and applications to droplet evaporation and kinetic models are given....

  2. Interface models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ravn, Anders P.; Staunstrup, Jørgen

    1994-01-01

    This paper proposes a model for specifying interfaces between concurrently executing modules of a computing system. The model does not prescribe a particular type of communication protocol and is aimed at describing interfaces between both software and hardware modules or a combination of the two....... The model describes both functional and timing properties of an interface...

  3. Hydrological models are mediating models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Babel, L. V.; Karssenberg, D.

    2013-08-01

    Despite the increasing role of models in hydrological research and decision-making processes, only few accounts of the nature and function of models exist in hydrology. Earlier considerations have traditionally been conducted while making a clear distinction between physically-based and conceptual models. A new philosophical account, primarily based on the fields of physics and economics, transcends classes of models and scientific disciplines by considering models as "mediators" between theory and observations. The core of this approach lies in identifying models as (1) being only partially dependent on theory and observations, (2) integrating non-deductive elements in their construction, and (3) carrying the role of instruments of scientific enquiry about both theory and the world. The applicability of this approach to hydrology is evaluated in the present article. Three widely used hydrological models, each showing a different degree of apparent physicality, are confronted to the main characteristics of the "mediating models" concept. We argue that irrespective of their kind, hydrological models depend on both theory and observations, rather than merely on one of these two domains. Their construction is additionally involving a large number of miscellaneous, external ingredients, such as past experiences, model objectives, knowledge and preferences of the modeller, as well as hardware and software resources. We show that hydrological models convey the role of instruments in scientific practice by mediating between theory and the world. It results from these considerations that the traditional distinction between physically-based and conceptual models is necessarily too simplistic and refers at best to the stage at which theory and observations are steering model construction. The large variety of ingredients involved in model construction would deserve closer attention, for being rarely explicitly presented in peer-reviewed literature. We believe that devoting

  4. ICRF modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Phillips, C.K.

    1985-12-01

    This lecture provides a survey of the methods used to model fast magnetosonic wave coupling, propagation, and absorption in tokamaks. The validity and limitations of three distinct types of modelling codes, which will be contrasted, include discrete models which utilize ray tracing techniques, approximate continuous field models based on a parabolic approximation of the wave equation, and full field models derived using finite difference techniques. Inclusion of mode conversion effects in these models and modification of the minority distribution function will also be discussed. The lecture will conclude with a presentation of time-dependent global transport simulations of ICRF-heated tokamak discharges obtained in conjunction with the ICRF modelling codes. 52 refs., 15 figs

  5. Modelling in Business Model design

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Simonse, W.L.

    2013-01-01

    It appears that business model design might not always produce a design or model as the expected result. However when designers are involved, a visual model or artefact is produced. To assist strategic managers in thinking about how they can act, the designers challenge is to combine strategy and

  6. Eclipse models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Michel, F.C.

    1989-01-01

    Three existing eclipse models for the PSR 1957 + 20 pulsar are discussed in terms of their requirements and the information they yield about the pulsar wind: the interacting wind from a companion model, the magnetosphere model, and the occulting disk model. It is shown out that the wind model requires an MHD wind from the pulsar, with enough particles that the Poynting flux of the wind can be thermalized; in this model, a large flux of energetic radiation from the pulsar is required to accompany the wind and drive the wind off the companion. The magnetosphere model requires an EM wind, which is Poynting flux dominated; the advantage of this model over the wind model is that the plasma density inside the magnetosphere can be orders of magnitude larger than in a magnetospheric tail blown back by wind interaction. The occulting disk model also requires an EM wind so that the interaction would be pushed down onto the companion surface, minimizing direct interaction of the wind with the orbiting macroscopic particles

  7. Ventilation Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang, H.

    1999-01-01

    The purpose of this analysis and model report (AMR) for the Ventilation Model is to analyze the effects of pre-closure continuous ventilation in the Engineered Barrier System (EBS) emplacement drifts and provide heat removal data to support EBS design. It will also provide input data (initial conditions, and time varying boundary conditions) for the EBS post-closure performance assessment and the EBS Water Distribution and Removal Process Model. The objective of the analysis is to develop, describe, and apply calculation methods and models that can be used to predict thermal conditions within emplacement drifts under forced ventilation during the pre-closure period. The scope of this analysis includes: (1) Provide a general description of effects and heat transfer process of emplacement drift ventilation. (2) Develop a modeling approach to simulate the impacts of pre-closure ventilation on the thermal conditions in emplacement drifts. (3) Identify and document inputs to be used for modeling emplacement ventilation. (4) Perform calculations of temperatures and heat removal in the emplacement drift. (5) Address general considerations of the effect of water/moisture removal by ventilation on the repository thermal conditions. The numerical modeling in this document will be limited to heat-only modeling and calculations. Only a preliminary assessment of the heat/moisture ventilation effects and modeling method will be performed in this revision. Modeling of moisture effects on heat removal and emplacement drift temperature may be performed in the future

  8. Mathematical modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blomhøj, Morten

    2004-01-01

    Developing competences for setting up, analysing and criticising mathematical models are normally seen as relevant only from and above upper secondary level. The general belief among teachers is that modelling activities presuppose conceptual understanding of the mathematics involved. Mathematical...... roots for the construction of important mathematical concepts. In addition competences for setting up, analysing and criticising modelling processes and the possible use of models is a formative aim in this own right for mathematics teaching in general education. The paper presents a theoretical...... modelling, however, can be seen as a practice of teaching that place the relation between real life and mathematics into the centre of teaching and learning mathematics, and this is relevant at all levels. Modelling activities may motivate the learning process and help the learner to establish cognitive...

  9. Mathematical modelling

    CERN Document Server

    2016-01-01

    This book provides a thorough introduction to the challenge of applying mathematics in real-world scenarios. Modelling tasks rarely involve well-defined categories, and they often require multidisciplinary input from mathematics, physics, computer sciences, or engineering. In keeping with this spirit of modelling, the book includes a wealth of cross-references between the chapters and frequently points to the real-world context. The book combines classical approaches to modelling with novel areas such as soft computing methods, inverse problems, and model uncertainty. Attention is also paid to the interaction between models, data and the use of mathematical software. The reader will find a broad selection of theoretical tools for practicing industrial mathematics, including the analysis of continuum models, probabilistic and discrete phenomena, and asymptotic and sensitivity analysis.

  10. Model : making

    OpenAIRE

    Bottle, Neil

    2013-01-01

    The Model : making exhibition was curated by Brian Kennedy in collaboration with Allies & Morrison in September 2013. For the London Design Festival, the Model : making exhibition looked at the increased use of new technologies by both craft-makers and architectural model makers. In both practices traditional ways of making by hand are increasingly being combined with the latest technologies of digital imaging, laser cutting, CNC machining and 3D printing. This exhibition focussed on ...

  11. Model building

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frampton, Paul H.

    1998-01-01

    In this talk I begin with some general discussion of model building in particle theory, emphasizing the need for motivation and testability. Three illustrative examples are then described. The first is the Left-Right model which provides an explanation for the chirality of quarks and leptons. The second is the 331-model which offers a first step to understanding the three generations of quarks and leptons. Third and last is the SU(15) model which can accommodate the light leptoquarks possibly seen at HERA

  12. Model building

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frampton, P.H.

    1998-01-01

    In this talk I begin with some general discussion of model building in particle theory, emphasizing the need for motivation and testability. Three illustrative examples are then described. The first is the Left-Right model which provides an explanation for the chirality of quarks and leptons. The second is the 331-model which offers a first step to understanding the three generations of quarks and leptons. Third and last is the SU(15) model which can accommodate the light leptoquarks possibly seen at HERA. copyright 1998 American Institute of Physics

  13. Modeling Documents with Event Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Longhui Wang

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Currently deep learning has made great breakthroughs in visual and speech processing, mainly because it draws lessons from the hierarchical mode that brain deals with images and speech. In the field of NLP, a topic model is one of the important ways for modeling documents. Topic models are built on a generative model that clearly does not match the way humans write. In this paper, we propose Event Model, which is unsupervised and based on the language processing mechanism of neurolinguistics, to model documents. In Event Model, documents are descriptions of concrete or abstract events seen, heard, or sensed by people and words are objects in the events. Event Model has two stages: word learning and dimensionality reduction. Word learning is to learn semantics of words based on deep learning. Dimensionality reduction is the process that representing a document as a low dimensional vector by a linear mode that is completely different from topic models. Event Model achieves state-of-the-art results on document retrieval tasks.

  14. Animal models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gøtze, Jens Peter; Krentz, Andrew

    2014-01-01

    In this issue of Cardiovascular Endocrinology, we are proud to present a broad and dedicated spectrum of reviews on animal models in cardiovascular disease. The reviews cover most aspects of animal models in science from basic differences and similarities between small animals and the human...

  15. Battery Modeling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jongerden, M.R.; Haverkort, Boudewijn R.H.M.

    2008-01-01

    The use of mobile devices is often limited by the capacity of the employed batteries. The battery lifetime determines how long one can use a device. Battery modeling can help to predict, and possibly extend this lifetime. Many different battery models have been developed over the years. However,

  16. Didactical modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Højgaard, Tomas; Hansen, Rune

    The purpose of this paper is to introduce Didactical Modelling as a research methodology in mathematics education. We compare the methodology with other approaches and argue that Didactical Modelling has its own specificity. We discuss the methodological “why” and explain why we find it useful...

  17. Design modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kempen, van A.; Kok, H.; Wagter, H.

    1992-01-01

    In Computer Aided Drafting three groups of three-dimensional geometric modelling can be recognized: wire frame, surface and solid modelling. One of the methods to describe a solid is by using a boundary based representation. The topology of the surface of a solid is the adjacency information between

  18. Education models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Poortman, Sybilla; Sloep, Peter

    2006-01-01

    Educational models describes a case study on a complex learning object. Possibilities are investigated for using this learning object, which is based on a particular educational model, outside of its original context. Furthermore, this study provides advice that might lead to an increase in

  19. VENTILATION MODEL

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    V. Chipman

    2002-01-01

    The purpose of the Ventilation Model is to simulate the heat transfer processes in and around waste emplacement drifts during periods of forced ventilation. The model evaluates the effects of emplacement drift ventilation on the thermal conditions in the emplacement drifts and surrounding rock mass, and calculates the heat removal by ventilation as a measure of the viability of ventilation to delay the onset of peak repository temperature and reduce its magnitude. The heat removal by ventilation is temporally and spatially dependent, and is expressed as the fraction of heat carried away by the ventilation air compared to the fraction of heat produced by radionuclide decay. One minus the heat removal is called the wall heat fraction, or the remaining amount of heat that is transferred via conduction to the surrounding rock mass. Downstream models, such as the ''Multiscale Thermohydrologic Model'' (BSC 2001), use the wall heat fractions as outputted from the Ventilation Model to initialize their postclosure analyses

  20. Modelling Constructs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kindler, Ekkart

    2009-01-01

    , these notations have been extended in order to increase expressiveness and to be more competitive. This resulted in an increasing number of notations and formalisms for modelling business processes and in an increase of the different modelling constructs provided by modelling notations, which makes it difficult......There are many different notations and formalisms for modelling business processes and workflows. These notations and formalisms have been introduced with different purposes and objectives. Later, influenced by other notations, comparisons with other tools, or by standardization efforts...... to compare modelling notations and to make transformations between them. One of the reasons is that, in each notation, the new concepts are introduced in a different way by extending the already existing constructs. In this chapter, we go the opposite direction: We show that it is possible to add most...

  1. STEREOMETRIC MODELLING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Grimaldi

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available These mandatory guidelines are provided for preparation of papers accepted for publication in the series of Volumes of The The stereometric modelling means modelling achieved with : – the use of a pair of virtual cameras, with parallel axes and positioned at a mutual distance average of 1/10 of the distance camera-object (in practice the realization and use of a stereometric camera in the modeling program; – the shot visualization in two distinct windows – the stereoscopic viewing of the shot while modelling. Since the definition of "3D vision" is inaccurately referred to as the simple perspective of an object, it is required to add the word stereo so that "3D stereo vision " shall stand for "three-dimensional view" and ,therefore, measure the width, height and depth of the surveyed image. Thanks to the development of a stereo metric model , either real or virtual, through the "materialization", either real or virtual, of the optical-stereo metric model made visible with a stereoscope. It is feasible a continuous on line updating of the cultural heritage with the help of photogrammetry and stereometric modelling. The catalogue of the Architectonic Photogrammetry Laboratory of Politecnico di Bari is available on line at: http://rappresentazione.stereofot.it:591/StereoFot/FMPro?-db=StereoFot.fp5&-lay=Scheda&-format=cerca.htm&-view

  2. Models and methods for assessing the value of HVDC and MVDC technologies in modern power grids

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Makarov, Yuri V. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Elizondo, Marcelo A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); O' Brien, James G. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Huang, Qiuhua [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Kirkham, Harold [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Huang, Zhenyu [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Chinthavali, Madhu [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Suman, Debnath [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Mohan, Nihal [Mid-Continent Independent System Operator (MISO), St. Paul, MN (United States); Hess, Warren [Mid-Continent Independent System Operator (MISO), St. Paul, MN (United States); Duebner, David [Mid-Continent Independent System Operator (MISO), St. Paul, MN (United States); Orser, David [Mid-Continent Independent System Operator (MISO), St. Paul, MN (United States); Brown, Hilary [Mid-Continent Independent System Operator (MISO), St. Paul, MN (United States); Osborn, Dale [Mid-Continent Independent System Operator (MISO), St. Paul, MN (United States); Feltes, James [Siemens, Knoxville, TN (United States); Kurthakoti Chandrashekhara, Divya [Siemens, Knoxville, TN (United States); Zhu, Wenchun [Siemens, Knoxville, TN (United States)

    2017-07-31

    power flow and transient stability model, the results showed that the HVDC macrogrid relieved congestion and mitigated loop flows in AC networks, and provided up to 24% improvement in frequency responses. These are realistic studies, based on the 2025 heavy summer and EI multi-regional modeling working group (MMWG) 2026 summer peak cases. This work developed high-fidelity models and simulation algorithms to understand the dynamics of MMC. The developed models and simulation algorithms are up to 25 times faster than the existing algorithms. Models and control algorithms for high-fidelity models were designed and tested for point-to-point and multi-terminal configurations. The multi-terminal configuration was tested connecting simplified models of EI, WI, and Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT). The developed models showed up to 45% improvement in frequency response with the connection of all the three asynchronous interconnections in the United States using fast and advanced DC technologies like the multi-terminal MMC-DC system. Future work will look into developing high-fidelity models of other advanced DC technologies, combining high-fidelity models with the continental-level model, incorporating additional services. More scenarios involving large-scale HVDC and MTDC will be evaluated.

  3. Modeling complexes of modeled proteins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anishchenko, Ivan; Kundrotas, Petras J; Vakser, Ilya A

    2017-03-01

    Structural characterization of proteins is essential for understanding life processes at the molecular level. However, only a fraction of known proteins have experimentally determined structures. This fraction is even smaller for protein-protein complexes. Thus, structural modeling of protein-protein interactions (docking) primarily has to rely on modeled structures of the individual proteins, which typically are less accurate than the experimentally determined ones. Such "double" modeling is the Grand Challenge of structural reconstruction of the interactome. Yet it remains so far largely untested in a systematic way. We present a comprehensive validation of template-based and free docking on a set of 165 complexes, where each protein model has six levels of structural accuracy, from 1 to 6 Å C α RMSD. Many template-based docking predictions fall into acceptable quality category, according to the CAPRI criteria, even for highly inaccurate proteins (5-6 Å RMSD), although the number of such models (and, consequently, the docking success rate) drops significantly for models with RMSD > 4 Å. The results show that the existing docking methodologies can be successfully applied to protein models with a broad range of structural accuracy, and the template-based docking is much less sensitive to inaccuracies of protein models than the free docking. Proteins 2017; 85:470-478. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  4. Graphical Rasch models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kreiner, Svend; Christensen, Karl Bang

    Rasch models; Partial Credit models; Rating Scale models; Item bias; Differential item functioning; Local independence; Graphical models......Rasch models; Partial Credit models; Rating Scale models; Item bias; Differential item functioning; Local independence; Graphical models...

  5. Supernova models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Woosley, S.E.; California, University, Livermore, CA); Weaver, T.A.

    1981-01-01

    Recent progress in understanding the observed properties of type I supernovae as a consequence of the thermonuclear detonation of white dwarf stars and the ensuing decay of the Ni-56 produced therein is reviewed. The expected nucleosynthesis and gamma-line spectra for this model of type I explosions and a model for type II explosions are presented. Finally, a qualitatively new approach to the problem of massive star death and type II supernovae based upon a combination of rotation and thermonuclear burning is discussed. While the theoretical results of existing models are predicated upon the assumption of a successful core bounce calculation and the neglect of such two-dimensional effects as rotation and magnetic fields the new model suggests an entirely different scenario in which a considerable portion of the energy carried by an equatorially ejected blob is deposited in the red giant envelope overlying the mantle of the star

  6. Model theory

    CERN Document Server

    Hodges, Wilfrid

    1993-01-01

    An up-to-date and integrated introduction to model theory, designed to be used for graduate courses (for students who are familiar with first-order logic), and as a reference for more experienced logicians and mathematicians.

  7. Markov model

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    2School of Water Resources, Indian Institute of Technology,. Kharagpur ... the most accepted method for modelling LULCC using current .... We used UTM coordinate system with zone 45 .... need to develop criteria for making decision about.

  8. Paleoclimate Modeling

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Computer simulations of past climate. Variables provided as model output are described by parameter keyword. In some cases the parameter keywords are a subset of all...

  9. Energy Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Energy models characterize the energy system, its evolution, and its interactions with the broader economy. The energy system consists of primary resources, including both fossil fuels and renewables; power plants, refineries, and other technologies to process and convert these r...

  10. Linear Models

    CERN Document Server

    Searle, Shayle R

    2012-01-01

    This 1971 classic on linear models is once again available--as a Wiley Classics Library Edition. It features material that can be understood by any statistician who understands matrix algebra and basic statistical methods.

  11. Ventilation models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skaaret, Eimund

    Calculation procedures, used in the design of ventilating systems, which are especially suited for displacement ventilation in addition to linking it to mixing ventilation, are addressed. The two zone flow model is considered and the steady state and transient solutions are addressed. Different methods of supplying air are discussed, and different types of air flow are considered: piston flow, plane flow and radial flow. An evaluation model for ventilation systems is presented.

  12. Model uncertainty: Probabilities for models?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Winkler, R.L.

    1994-01-01

    Like any other type of uncertainty, model uncertainty should be treated in terms of probabilities. The question is how to do this. The most commonly-used approach has a drawback related to the interpretation of the probabilities assigned to the models. If we step back and look at the big picture, asking what the appropriate focus of the model uncertainty question should be in the context of risk and decision analysis, we see that a different probabilistic approach makes more sense, although it raise some implementation questions. Current work that is underway to address these questions looks very promising

  13. Thermocouple modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fryer, M.O.

    1984-01-01

    The temperature measurements provided by thermocouples (TCs) are important for the operation of pressurized water reactors. During severe inadequate core cooling incidents, extreme temperatures may cause type K thermocouples (TCs) used for core exit temperature monitoring to perform poorly. A model of TC electrical behavior has been developed to determine how TCs react under extreme temperatures. The model predicts the voltage output of the TC and its impedance. A series of experiments were conducted on a length of type K thermocouple to validate the model. Impedance was measured at several temperatures between 22 0 C and 1100 0 C and at frequencies between dc and 10 MHz. The model was able to accurately predict impedance over this wide range of conditions. The average percentage difference between experimental data and the model was less than 6.5%. Experimental accuracy was +-2.5%. There is a sriking difference between impedance versus frequency plots at 300 0 C and at higher temperatures. This may be useful in validating TC data during accident conditions

  14. Photoionization Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kallman, T.

    2010-01-01

    Warm absorber spectra are characterized by the many lines from partially ionized intermediate-Z elements, and iron, detected with the grating instruments on Chandra and XMM-Newton. If these ions are formed in a gas which is in photoionization equilibrium, they correspond to a broad range of ionization parameters, although there is evidence for certain preferred values. A test for any dynamical model for these outflows is to reproduce these properties, at some level of detail. In this paper we present a statistical analysis of the ionization distribution which can be applied both the observed spectra and to theoretical models. As an example, we apply it to our dynamical models for warm absorber outflows, based on evaporation from the molecular torus.

  15. Reflectance Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, J. A.; Cooper, K.; Randolph, M.

    1984-01-01

    A classical description of the one dimensional radiative transfer treatment of vegetation canopies was completed and the results were tested against measured prairie (blue grama) and agricultural canopies (soybean). Phase functions are calculated in terms of directly measurable biophysical characteristics of the canopy medium. While the phase functions tend to exhibit backscattering anisotropy, their exact behavior is somewhat more complex and wavelength dependent. A Monte Carlo model was developed that treats soil surfaces with large periodic variations in three dimensions. A photon-ray tracing technology is used. Currently, the rough soil surface is described by analytic functions and appropriate geometric calculations performed. A bidirectional reflectance distribution function is calculated and, hence, available for other atmospheric or canopy reflectance models as a lower boundary condition. This technique is used together with an adding model to calculate several cases where Lambertian leaves possessing anisotropic leaf angle distributions yield non-Lambertian reflectance; similar behavior is exhibited for simulated soil surfaces.

  16. Mathematical modeling

    CERN Document Server

    Eck, Christof; Knabner, Peter

    2017-01-01

    Mathematical models are the decisive tool to explain and predict phenomena in the natural and engineering sciences. With this book readers will learn to derive mathematical models which help to understand real world phenomena. At the same time a wealth of important examples for the abstract concepts treated in the curriculum of mathematics degrees are given. An essential feature of this book is that mathematical structures are used as an ordering principle and not the fields of application. Methods from linear algebra, analysis and the theory of ordinary and partial differential equations are thoroughly introduced and applied in the modeling process. Examples of applications in the fields electrical networks, chemical reaction dynamics, population dynamics, fluid dynamics, elasticity theory and crystal growth are treated comprehensively.

  17. Electric vehicle charge patterns and the electricity generation mix and competitiveness of next generation vehicles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Masuta, Taisuke; Murata, Akinobu; Endo, Eiichi

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • The energy system of whole of Japan is analyzed in this study. • An advanced model based on MARKAL is used for the energy system analysis. • The impact of charge patterns of EVs on electricity generation mix is evaluated. • Technology competitiveness of the next generation vehicles is also evaluated. - Abstract: The nuclear accident of 2011 brought about a reconsideration of the future electricity generation mix of power systems in Japan. A debate on whether to phase out nuclear power plants and replace them with renewable energy sources is taking place. Demand-side management becomes increasingly important in future Japanese power systems with a large-scale integration of renewable energy sources. This paper considers the charge control of electric vehicles (EVs) through demand-side management. There have been many studies of the control or operation methods of EVs known as vehicle-to-grid (V2G), and it is important to evaluate both their short-term and long-term operation. In this study, we employ energy system to evaluate the impact of the charge patterns of EVs on both the electricity generation mix and the technology competitiveness of the next generation vehicles. An advanced energy system model based on Market Allocation (MARKAL) is used to consider power system control in detail

  18. Effects of cross-border power trade between Laos and Thailand: Energy security and environmental implications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Watcharejyothin, Mayurachat; Shrestha, Ram M.

    2009-01-01

    This paper analyzed the effects of hydropower development in Laos and power trade between Laos and Thailand on economy wide, energy resource mix, power generation capacity mix, energy system cost, environment, as well as, energy security. A MARKAL-based model for an integrated energy system of Laos and Thailand was developed to assess the effects of energy resource development and trade to meet the national energy demands of the two countries. Two national MARKAL-based energy system models of Laos and Thailand were formulated for the study. The results show that 80% exploitation of water resource in Laos would induce power trade between the countries. The integrated energy system cost is found to decrease marginally but it would mitigate the CO 2 emission by 2% when compared with the base case. Thailand is expected to gain benefit from the increased level of power imported from Laos in terms of the lower energy system cost, better environmental quality and, greater diversification of energy sources. As compared to the base case, Laos would become the net energy exporter, earn significant export revenue, and improve the increase in revenue of energy export per increase in total energy system cost from the maximum exploitation of hydropower resource.

  19. Modelling language

    CERN Document Server

    Cardey, Sylviane

    2013-01-01

    In response to the need for reliable results from natural language processing, this book presents an original way of decomposing a language(s) in a microscopic manner by means of intra/inter‑language norms and divergences, going progressively from languages as systems to the linguistic, mathematical and computational models, which being based on a constructive approach are inherently traceable. Languages are described with their elements aggregating or repelling each other to form viable interrelated micro‑systems. The abstract model, which contrary to the current state of the art works in int

  20. Molecular modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aarti Sharma

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available The use of computational chemistry in the development of novel pharmaceuticals is becoming an increasingly important tool. In the past, drugs were simply screened for effectiveness. The recent advances in computing power and the exponential growth of the knowledge of protein structures have made it possible for organic compounds to be tailored to decrease the harmful side effects and increase the potency. This article provides a detailed description of the techniques employed in molecular modeling. Molecular modeling is a rapidly developing discipline, and has been supported by the dramatic improvements in computer hardware and software in recent years.

  1. Supernova models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Woosley, S.E.; Weaver, T.A.

    1980-01-01

    Recent progress in understanding the observed properties of Type I supernovae as a consequence of the thermonuclear detonation of white dwarf stars and the ensuing decay of the 56 Ni produced therein is reviewed. Within the context of this model for Type I explosions and the 1978 model for Type II explosions, the expected nucleosynthesis and gamma-line spectra from both kinds of supernovae are presented. Finally, a qualitatively new approach to the problem of massive star death and Type II supernovae based upon a combination of rotation and thermonuclear burning is discussed

  2. MRICES:一个新的减排方案评价模型及其应用%MRICES: A new model for emission mitigation strategy assessment and its application

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Zheng; WU Jing; ZHU Qianting; WANG Lijuan; GONG Yi; LI Huaqun

    2012-01-01

    @@%Many global emission reduction strategies have been proposed,but few have been assessed quantitatively from the view of equality,efficiency and effectiveness.Integrated assessment models (IAM) is one of the effective ways to make climate policy modeling.So in this paper we developed the MRICES (Multi-regional integrated model of climate and economy with GDP spillovers) model,which is an IAM but extends to include GDP spillover mechanism,to make assessment on several strategies for global emission reduction,including the egalitarianism strategy,the UNDP strategy and the Copenhagen Accord.Using 1990 as a baseline for historical emission levels,the egalitarian strategy argues that developed countries should implement urgent emission reductions,whereas developing countries are allowed relatively higher future emission quotas.The UNDP strategy addresses the issue of substantial changes in global temperature but acknowledges that developing countries are not able to afford more costs for mitigation measures,which is inequitable from the perspective of a country's right to develop.We also simulated the Copenhagen Accord to determine the consequences by the year 2100 if each country continues their current emission mitigation actions,and results indicated that the increase in global temperature will be 2.8℃ by 2100; consequently,much stronger emission reduction efforts must be implemented after 2020.Based on analysis on mitigation strategies,it is recognized that the common but differentiated responsibility principle must be insisted when making global mitigation strategy.To comply with this principle,the emission reduction baseline of developed and developing countries should be discriminated,so 1990 and 2005 can be taken as the base year for developed and developing countries respectively.

  3. Analysis of methods and models for assessing the direct and indirect economic impacts of CO/sub 2/-induced environmental changes in the agricultural sector of the US economy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Callaway, J.M.; Cronin, F.J.; Currie, J.W.; Tawil, J.

    1982-08-01

    The overall purpose of this research was to assist the US Department of Energy (DOE) in developing methods for assessing the direct and indirect economic impacts due to the effects of increases in the ambient concentration of CO/sub 2/ on agricultural production. First, a comprehensive literature search was undertaken to determine what types of models and methods have been developed, which could be effectively used to conduct assessments of the direct and indirect economic impacts of CO/sub 2/ buildup. Specific attention was focused upon models and methods for assessing the physical impacts of CO/sub 2/-induced environmental changes on crop yields; national and multi-regional agricultural sector models; and macroeconomic models of the US economy. The second task involved a thorough investigation of the research efforts being conducted by other public and private sector organizations in order to determine how more recent analytical methods being developed outside of DOE could be effectively integrated into a more comprehensive analysis of the direct economic impacts of CO/sub 2/ buildup. The third and final task involved synthesizing the information gathered in the first two tasks into a systematic framework for assessing the direct and indirect economic impacts of CO/sub 2/-induced environmental changes originating in the agricultural sector of the US economy. It is concluded that the direct economic impacts of CO/sub 2/ on the agricultural sector and the indirect economic impacts caused by spillover effects from agriculture to other sectors of the economy will be pervasive; however, the direction and magnitude of these impacts on producers and consumers cannot be determined a priori.

  4. Painting models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baart, F.; Donchyts, G.; van Dam, A.; Plieger, M.

    2015-12-01

    The emergence of interactive art has blurred the line between electronic, computer graphics and art. Here we apply this art form to numerical models. Here we show how the transformation of a numerical model into an interactive painting can both provide insights and solve real world problems. The cases that are used as an example include forensic reconstructions, dredging optimization, barrier design. The system can be fed using any source of time varying vector fields, such as hydrodynamic models. The cases used here, the Indian Ocean (HYCOM), the Wadden Sea (Delft3D Curvilinear), San Francisco Bay (3Di subgrid and Delft3D Flexible Mesh), show that the method used is suitable for different time and spatial scales. High resolution numerical models become interactive paintings by exchanging their velocity fields with a high resolution (>=1M cells) image based flow visualization that runs in a html5 compatible web browser. The image based flow visualization combines three images into a new image: the current image, a drawing, and a uv + mask field. The advection scheme that computes the resultant image is executed in the graphics card using WebGL, allowing for 1M grid cells at 60Hz performance on mediocre graphic cards. The software is provided as open source software. By using different sources for a drawing one can gain insight into several aspects of the velocity fields. These aspects include not only the commonly represented magnitude and direction, but also divergence, topology and turbulence .

  5. Entrepreneurship Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finger Lakes Regional Education Center for Economic Development, Mount Morris, NY.

    This guide describes seven model programs that were developed by the Finger Lakes Regional Center for Economic Development (New York) to meet the training needs of female and minority entrepreneurs to help their businesses survive and grow and to assist disabled and dislocated workers and youth in beginning small businesses. The first three models…

  6. Lens Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nash, Ulrik William

    2014-01-01

    Firms consist of people who make decisions to achieve goals. How do these people develop the expectations which underpin the choices they make? The lens model provides one answer to this question. It was developed by cognitive psychologist Egon Brunswik (1952) to illustrate his theory of probabil...

  7. Eclipse models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Michel, F.C.

    1989-01-01

    This paper addresses the question of, if one overlooks their idiosyncratic difficulties, what could be learned from the various models about the pulsar wind? The wind model requires an MHD wind from the pulsar, namely, one with enough particles that the Poynting flux of the wind can be thermalized. Otherwise, there is no shock and the pulsar wind simply reflects like a flashlight beam. Additionally, a large flux of energetic radiation from the pulsar is required to accompany the wind and drive the wind off the companion. The magnetosphere model probably requires an EM wind, which is Poynting flux dominated. Reflection in this case would arguably minimize the intimate interaction between the two flows that leads to tail formation and thereby permit a weakly magnetized tail. The occulting disk model also would point to an EM wind so that the interaction would be pushed down onto the companion surface (to form the neutral fountain) and so as to also minimize direct interaction of the wind with the orbiting macroscopic particles

  8. (SSE) model

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Simple analytic polynomials have been proposed for estimating solar radiation in the traditional Northern, Central and Southern regions of Malawi. There is a strong agreement between the polynomials and the SSE model with R2 values of 0.988, 0.989 and 0.989 and root mean square errors of 0.061, 0.057 and 0.062 ...

  9. Successful modeling?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lomnitz, Cinna

    Tichelaar and Ruff [1989] propose to “estimate model variance in complicated geophysical problems,” including the determination of focal depth in earthquakes, by means of unconventional statistical methods such as bootstrapping. They are successful insofar as they are able to duplicate the results from more conventional procedures.

  10. Defect modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Norgett, M.J.

    1980-01-01

    Calculations, drawing principally on developments at AERE Harwell, of the relaxation about lattice defects are reviewed with emphasis on the techniques required for such calculations. The principles of defect modelling are outlined and various programs developed for defect simulations are discussed. Particular calculations for metals, ionic crystals and oxides, are considered. (UK)

  11. Cadastral Modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stubkjær, Erik

    2005-01-01

    to the modeling of an industrial sector, as it aims at rendering the basic concepts that relate to the domain of real estate and the pertinent human activities. The palpable objects are pieces of land and buildings, documents, data stores and archives, as well as persons in their diverse roles as owners, holders...

  12. The Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    About the reconstruction of Palle Nielsen's (f. 1942) work The Model from 1968: a gigantic playground for children in the museum, where they can freely romp about, climb in ropes, crawl on wooden structures, work with tools, jump in foam rubber, paint with finger paints and dress up in costumes....

  13. Biotran model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wenzel, W.J.; Gallegos, A.F.; Rodgers, J.C.

    1985-01-01

    The BIOTRAN model was developed at Los Alamos to help predict short- and long-term consequences to man from releases of radionuclides into the environment. It is a dynamic model that simulates on a daily and yearly basis the flux of biomass, water, and radionuclides through terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. Biomass, water, and radionuclides are driven within the ecosystems by climate variables stochastically generated by BIOTRAN each simulation day. The climate variables influence soil hydraulics, plant growth, evapotranspiration, and particle suspension and deposition. BIOTRAN has 22 different plant growth strategies for simulating various grasses, shrubs, trees, and crops. Ruminants and humans are also dynamically simulated by using the simulated crops and forage as intake for user-specified diets. BIOTRAN has been used at Los Alamos for long-term prediction of health effects to populations following potential accidental releases of uranium and plutonium. Newly developed subroutines are described: a human dynamic physiological and metabolic model; a soil hydrology and irrigation model; limnetic nutrient and radionuclide cycling in fresh-water lakes. 7 references

  14. Turbulence Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Mogens Peter; Shui, Wan; Johansson, Jens

    2011-01-01

    term with stresses depending linearly on the strain rates. This term takes into account the transfer of linear momentum from one part of the fluid to another. Besides there is another term, which takes into account the transfer of angular momentum. Thus the model implies a new definition of turbulence...

  15. Hydroballistics Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    1975-01-01

    thai h’liathe0in antd is finaull’ %IIIrd alt %tramlit And drohlttle. Mike aplpars Ito inua•,e upward in outler a rei and dowoi. ward it %iunr areli, Oil...fiducial marks should be constant and the edges phobic nor hydrophilic is better for routine sharpl ) defined. model testing. Before each launching in

  16. Molecular Modeling

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Resonance – Journal of Science Education; Volume 9; Issue 5. Molecular Modeling: A Powerful Tool for Drug Design and Molecular Docking. Rama Rao Nadendla. General Article Volume 9 Issue 5 May 2004 pp 51-60. Fulltext. Click here to view fulltext PDF. Permanent link:

  17. Criticality Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alsaed, A.

    2004-01-01

    The ''Disposal Criticality Analysis Methodology Topical Report'' (YMP 2003) presents the methodology for evaluating potential criticality situations in the monitored geologic repository. As stated in the referenced Topical Report, the detailed methodology for performing the disposal criticality analyses will be documented in model reports. Many of the models developed in support of the Topical Report differ from the definition of models as given in the Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management procedure AP-SIII.10Q, ''Models'', in that they are procedural, rather than mathematical. These model reports document the detailed methodology necessary to implement the approach presented in the Disposal Criticality Analysis Methodology Topical Report and provide calculations utilizing the methodology. Thus, the governing procedure for this type of report is AP-3.12Q, ''Design Calculations and Analyses''. The ''Criticality Model'' is of this latter type, providing a process evaluating the criticality potential of in-package and external configurations. The purpose of this analysis is to layout the process for calculating the criticality potential for various in-package and external configurations and to calculate lower-bound tolerance limit (LBTL) values and determine range of applicability (ROA) parameters. The LBTL calculations and the ROA determinations are performed using selected benchmark experiments that are applicable to various waste forms and various in-package and external configurations. The waste forms considered in this calculation are pressurized water reactor (PWR), boiling water reactor (BWR), Fast Flux Test Facility (FFTF), Training Research Isotope General Atomic (TRIGA), Enrico Fermi, Shippingport pressurized water reactor, Shippingport light water breeder reactor (LWBR), N-Reactor, Melt and Dilute, and Fort Saint Vrain Reactor spent nuclear fuel (SNF). The scope of this analysis is to document the criticality computational method. The criticality

  18. Building Models and Building Modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Kaj; Skauge, Jørn

    2008-01-01

    I rapportens indledende kapitel beskrives de primære begreber vedrørende bygningsmodeller og nogle fundamentale forhold vedrørende computerbaseret modulering bliver opstillet. Desuden bliver forskellen mellem tegneprogrammer og bygnings­model­lerings­programmer beskrevet. Vigtige aspekter om comp...

  19. Persistent Modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    2012-01-01

    The relationship between representation and the represented is examined here through the notion of persistent modelling. This notion is not novel to the activity of architectural design if it is considered as describing a continued active and iterative engagement with design concerns – an evident....... It also provides critical insight into the use of contemporary modelling tools and methods, together with an examination of the implications their use has within the territories of architectural design, realisation and experience....... on this subject, this book makes essential reading for anyone considering new ways of thinking about architecture. In drawing upon both historical and contemporary perspectives this book provides evidence of the ways in which relations between representation and the represented continue to be reconsidered...

  20. Persistent Modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    The relationship between representation and the represented is examined here through the notion of persistent modelling. This notion is not novel to the activity of architectural design if it is considered as describing a continued active and iterative engagement with design concerns – an evident....... It also provides critical insight into the use of contemporary modelling tools and methods, together with an examination of the implications their use has within the territories of architectural design, realisation and experience....... on this subject, this book makes essential reading for anyone considering new ways of thinking about architecture. In drawing upon both historical and contemporary perspectives this book provides evidence of the ways in which relations between representation and the represented continue to be reconsidered...

  1. Acyclic models

    CERN Document Server

    Barr, Michael

    2002-01-01

    Acyclic models is a method heavily used to analyze and compare various homology and cohomology theories appearing in topology and algebra. This book is the first attempt to put together in a concise form this important technique and to include all the necessary background. It presents a brief introduction to category theory and homological algebra. The author then gives the background of the theory of differential modules and chain complexes over an abelian category to state the main acyclic models theorem, generalizing and systemizing the earlier material. This is then applied to various cohomology theories in algebra and topology. The volume could be used as a text for a course that combines homological algebra and algebraic topology. Required background includes a standard course in abstract algebra and some knowledge of topology. The volume contains many exercises. It is also suitable as a reference work for researchers.

  2. Molecular Modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aarti Sharma

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available

    The use of computational chemistry in the development of novel pharmaceuticals is becoming an increasingly important
    tool. In the past, drugs were simply screened for effectiveness. The recent advances in computing power and
    the exponential growth of the knowledge of protein structures have made it possible for organic compounds to tailored to
    decrease harmful side effects and increase the potency. This article provides a detailed description of the techniques
    employed in molecular modeling. Molecular modelling is a rapidly developing discipline, and has been supported from
    the dramatic improvements in computer hardware and software in recent years.

  3. RNICE Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Mogens Jin; Stritch, Justin Michael

    2018-01-01

    Replication studies relate to the scientific principle of replicability and serve the significant purpose of providing supporting (or contradicting) evidence regarding the existence of a phenomenon. However, replication has never been an integral part of public administration and management...... research. Recently, scholars have issued calls for more replication, but academic reflections on when replication adds substantive value to public administration and management research are needed. This concise article presents a conceptual model, RNICE, for assessing when and how a replication study...... contributes knowledge about a social phenomenon and advances knowledge in the public administration and management literatures. The RNICE model provides a vehicle for researchers who seek to evaluate or demonstrate the value of a replication study systematically. We illustrate the practical application...

  4. Maturity Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lasrado, Lester Allan; Vatrapu, Ravi

    2016-01-01

    Recent advancements in set theory and readily available software have enabled social science researchers to bridge the variable-centered quantitative and case-based qualitative methodological paradigms in order to analyze multi-dimensional associations beyond the linearity assumptions, aggregate...... effects, unicausal reduction, and case specificity. Based on the developments in set theoretical thinking in social sciences and employing methods like Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA), Necessary Condition Analysis (NCA), and set visualization techniques, in this position paper, we propose...... and demonstrate a new approach to maturity models in the domain of Information Systems. This position paper describes the set-theoretical approach to maturity models, presents current results and outlines future research work....

  5. Modelling Defiguration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bork Petersen, Franziska

    2013-01-01

    advantageous manner. Stepping on the catwalk’s sloping, moving surfaces decelerates the models’ walk and makes it cautious, hesitant and shaky: suddenly the models lack exactly the affirmative, staccato, striving quality of motion, and the condescending expression that they perform on most contemporary......For the presentation of his autumn/winter 2012 collection in Paris and subsequently in Copenhagen, Danish designer Henrik Vibskov installed a mobile catwalk. The article investigates the choreographic impact of this scenography on those who move through it. Drawing on Dance Studies, the analytical...... focus centres on how the catwalk scenography evokes a ‘defiguration’ of the walking models and to what effect. Vibskov’s mobile catwalk draws attention to the walk, which is a key element of models’ performance but which usually functions in fashion shows merely to present clothes in the most...

  6. Cheating models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arnoldi, Jakob

    The article discusses the use of algorithmic models for so-called High Frequency Trading (HFT) in finance. HFT is controversial yet widespread in modern financial markets. It is a form of automated trading technology which critics among other things claim can lead to market manipulation. Drawing....... The article analyses these challenges and argues that we witness a new post-social form of human-technology interaction that will lead to a reconfiguration of professional codes for financial trading....

  7. Biomimetic modelling.

    OpenAIRE

    Vincent, Julian F V

    2003-01-01

    Biomimetics is seen as a path from biology to engineering. The only path from engineering to biology in current use is the application of engineering concepts and models to biological systems. However, there is another pathway: the verification of biological mechanisms by manufacture, leading to an iterative process between biology and engineering in which the new understanding that the engineering implementation of a biological system can bring is fed back into biology, allowing a more compl...

  8. Ozone modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McIllvaine, C M

    1994-07-01

    Exhaust gases from power plants that burn fossil fuels contain concentrations of sulfur dioxide (SO{sub 2}), nitric oxide (NO), particulate matter, hydrocarbon compounds and trace metals. Estimated emissions from the operation of a hypothetical 500 MW coal-fired power plant are given. Ozone is considered a secondary pollutant, since it is not emitted directly into the atmosphere but is formed from other air pollutants, specifically, nitrogen oxides (NO), and non-methane organic compounds (NMOQ) in the presence of sunlight. (NMOC are sometimes referred to as hydrocarbons, HC, or volatile organic compounds, VOC, and they may or may not include methane). Additionally, ozone formation Alternative is a function of the ratio of NMOC concentrations to NO{sub x} concentrations. A typical ozone isopleth is shown, generated with the Empirical Kinetic Modeling Approach (EKMA) option of the Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Ozone Isopleth Plotting Mechanism (OZIPM-4) model. Ozone isopleth diagrams, originally generated with smog chamber data, are more commonly generated with photochemical reaction mechanisms and tested against smog chamber data. The shape of the isopleth curves is a function of the region (i.e. background conditions) where ozone concentrations are simulated. The location of an ozone concentration on the isopleth diagram is defined by the ratio of NMOC and NO{sub x} coordinates of the point, known as the NMOC/NO{sub x} ratio. Results obtained by the described model are presented.

  9. Ozone modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McIllvaine, C.M.

    1994-01-01

    Exhaust gases from power plants that burn fossil fuels contain concentrations of sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ), nitric oxide (NO), particulate matter, hydrocarbon compounds and trace metals. Estimated emissions from the operation of a hypothetical 500 MW coal-fired power plant are given. Ozone is considered a secondary pollutant, since it is not emitted directly into the atmosphere but is formed from other air pollutants, specifically, nitrogen oxides (NO), and non-methane organic compounds (NMOQ) in the presence of sunlight. (NMOC are sometimes referred to as hydrocarbons, HC, or volatile organic compounds, VOC, and they may or may not include methane). Additionally, ozone formation Alternative is a function of the ratio of NMOC concentrations to NO x concentrations. A typical ozone isopleth is shown, generated with the Empirical Kinetic Modeling Approach (EKMA) option of the Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Ozone Isopleth Plotting Mechanism (OZIPM-4) model. Ozone isopleth diagrams, originally generated with smog chamber data, are more commonly generated with photochemical reaction mechanisms and tested against smog chamber data. The shape of the isopleth curves is a function of the region (i.e. background conditions) where ozone concentrations are simulated. The location of an ozone concentration on the isopleth diagram is defined by the ratio of NMOC and NO x coordinates of the point, known as the NMOC/NO x ratio. Results obtained by the described model are presented

  10. Animal models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walker, Ellen A

    2010-01-01

    As clinical studies reveal that chemotherapeutic agents may impair several different cognitive domains in humans, the development of preclinical animal models is critical to assess the degree of chemotherapy-induced learning and memory deficits and to understand the underlying neural mechanisms. In this chapter, the effects of various cancer chemotherapeutic agents in rodents on sensory processing, conditioned taste aversion, conditioned emotional response, passive avoidance, spatial learning, cued memory, discrimination learning, delayed-matching-to-sample, novel-object recognition, electrophysiological recordings and autoshaping is reviewed. It appears at first glance that the effects of the cancer chemotherapy agents in these many different models are inconsistent. However, a literature is emerging that reveals subtle or unique changes in sensory processing, acquisition, consolidation and retrieval that are dose- and time-dependent. As more studies examine cancer chemotherapeutic agents alone and in combination during repeated treatment regimens, the animal models will become more predictive tools for the assessment of these impairments and the underlying neural mechanisms. The eventual goal is to collect enough data to enable physicians to make informed choices about therapeutic regimens for their patients and discover new avenues of alternative or complementary therapies that reduce or eliminate chemotherapy-induced cognitive deficits.

  11. Modeling biomembranes.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Plimpton, Steven James; Heffernan, Julieanne; Sasaki, Darryl Yoshio; Frischknecht, Amalie Lucile; Stevens, Mark Jackson; Frink, Laura J. Douglas

    2005-11-01

    Understanding the properties and behavior of biomembranes is fundamental to many biological processes and technologies. Microdomains in biomembranes or ''lipid rafts'' are now known to be an integral part of cell signaling, vesicle formation, fusion processes, protein trafficking, and viral and toxin infection processes. Understanding how microdomains form, how they depend on membrane constituents, and how they act not only has biological implications, but also will impact Sandia's effort in development of membranes that structurally adapt to their environment in a controlled manner. To provide such understanding, we created physically-based models of biomembranes. Molecular dynamics (MD) simulations and classical density functional theory (DFT) calculations using these models were applied to phenomena such as microdomain formation, membrane fusion, pattern formation, and protein insertion. Because lipid dynamics and self-organization in membranes occur on length and time scales beyond atomistic MD, we used coarse-grained models of double tail lipid molecules that spontaneously self-assemble into bilayers. DFT provided equilibrium information on membrane structure. Experimental work was performed to further help elucidate the fundamental membrane organization principles.

  12. Results and future programme of HTR's study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mursid Djokolelono; Soedyartomo Soentono

    1990-01-01

    Study on the application of HTRs for the enhanced oil recovery in the Duri oil field (Sumatra, Indonesia) was performed in 1986/1987. The economic and technological advantages over crude burning option were identified. Crude oil prices, HTR capital costs, discount rates and company's income structure represented dominant parameters. Further sensitivity calculations on important economic parameters were obtained to reflect the condition of 1988. This nuclear option was also incorporated in the energy planning study for the whole of Indonesia using the MARKAL model, and resulted in the conditions of its applicability. The scenarios chosen in this MARKAL study were high and low GDP growth rate, whereas the criteria chosen were the minimum cost with and without a predetermined policy of reduced domestic use of oil. In the high scenario the HTRs as well as the natural gas options could not compete against the low cost boilers with crude-oil fuel. But in the case of reduced domestic oil use the HTRs came out to supplement the crudeburning boilers starting in the sixth five year plan (1994-999), even earlier than the natural gas option. The authors further discuss the industrial environment, in relation to the regional development, the possible local participation, as well as the plan to materialize the merits of this novel application. (author)

  13. Analysis on long-term change of energy system structure in Japan considering CO2 emission and domestic demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kurokawa, Shingo; Tabe, Yutaka; Chikahisa, Takemi

    2011-01-01

    Long-term change of energy system structure in Japan was analyzed to investigate the effect of the CO 2 emission reduction level on the reduction cost using MARKAL model. The MARKAL is composed of energy resources, energy supply technologies, energy ultimate demand technologies and energy service demands with them connected by energy carriers. This paper presents analyses investigating the CO 2 reduction cost and the energy structure change until 2050. Here, we focused on the domestic investment to reduce CO 2 emission. It was shown that the CO 2 reduction until 40% level promotes the energy conversion from coal to natural gas and it causes the increase in total cost of the imported fuel. The higher CO 2 reduction, however, increases the domestic investment for low-emission vehicles, photovoltaic power generation and so on, and decreases the overseas investment, although the total CO 2 reduction cost is increased. This contributes to the revitalization of Japanese economy, together with the reduction of overseas investment. (author)

  14. Results and future programme of HTR's study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Djokolelono, Mursid; Soentono, Soedyartomo [National Atomic Energy Agency (Indonesia)

    1990-07-01

    Study on the application of HTRs for the enhanced oil recovery in the Duri oil field (Sumatra, Indonesia) was performed in 1986/1987. The economic and technological advantages over crude burning option were identified. Crude oil prices, HTR capital costs, discount rates and company's income structure represented dominant parameters. Further sensitivity calculations on important economic parameters were obtained to reflect the condition of 1988. This nuclear option was also incorporated in the energy planning study for the whole of Indonesia using the MARKAL model, and resulted in the conditions of its applicability. The scenarios chosen in this MARKAL study were high and low GDP growth rate, whereas the criteria chosen were the minimum cost with and without a predetermined policy of reduced domestic use of oil. In the high scenario the HTRs as well as the natural gas options could not compete against the low cost boilers with crude-oil fuel. But in the case of reduced domestic oil use the HTRs came out to supplement the crudeburning boilers starting in the sixth five year plan (1994-999), even earlier than the natural gas option. The authors further discuss the industrial environment, in relation to the regional development, the possible local participation, as well as the plan to materialize the merits of this novel application. (author)

  15. Model visionary

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chandler, Graham

    2011-03-15

    Ken Dedeluk is the president and CEO of Computer Modeling Group (CMG). Dedeluk started his career with Gulf Oil in 1972, worked in computer assisted design; then joined Imperial Esso and Shell, where he became international operations' VP; and finally joined CMG in 1998. CMG made a decision that turned out to be the company's turning point: they decided to provide intensive support and service to their customer to better use their technology. Thanks to this service, their customers' satisfaction grew as well as their revenues.

  16. Model integration and a theory of models

    OpenAIRE

    Dolk, Daniel R.; Kottemann, Jeffrey E.

    1993-01-01

    Model integration extends the scope of model management to include the dimension of manipulation as well. This invariably leads to comparisons with database theory. Model integration is viewed from four perspectives: Organizational, definitional, procedural, and implementational. Strategic modeling is discussed as the organizational motivation for model integration. Schema and process integration are examined as the logical and manipulation counterparts of model integr...

  17. ALEPH model

    CERN Multimedia

    1989-01-01

    A wooden model of the ALEPH experiment and its cavern. ALEPH was one of 4 experiments at CERN's 27km Large Electron Positron collider (LEP) that ran from 1989 to 2000. During 11 years of research, LEP's experiments provided a detailed study of the electroweak interaction. Measurements performed at LEP also proved that there are three – and only three – generations of particles of matter. LEP was closed down on 2 November 2000 to make way for the construction of the Large Hadron Collider in the same tunnel. The cavern and detector are in separate locations - the cavern is stored at CERN and the detector is temporarily on display in Glasgow physics department. Both are available for loan.

  18. modelling distances

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert F. Love

    2001-01-01

    Full Text Available Distance predicting functions may be used in a variety of applications for estimating travel distances between points. To evaluate the accuracy of a distance predicting function and to determine its parameters, a goodness-of-fit criteria is employed. AD (Absolute Deviations, SD (Squared Deviations and NAD (Normalized Absolute Deviations are the three criteria that are mostly employed in practice. In the literature some assumptions have been made about the properties of each criterion. In this paper, we present statistical analyses performed to compare the three criteria from different perspectives. For this purpose, we employ the ℓkpθ-norm as the distance predicting function, and statistically compare the three criteria by using normalized absolute prediction error distributions in seventeen geographical regions. We find that there exist no significant differences between the criteria. However, since the criterion SD has desirable properties in terms of distance modelling procedures, we suggest its use in practice.

  19. Comparison: Binomial model and Black Scholes model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amir Ahmad Dar

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The Binomial Model and the Black Scholes Model are the popular methods that are used to solve the option pricing problems. Binomial Model is a simple statistical method and Black Scholes model requires a solution of a stochastic differential equation. Pricing of European call and a put option is a very difficult method used by actuaries. The main goal of this study is to differentiate the Binominal model and the Black Scholes model by using two statistical model - t-test and Tukey model at one period. Finally, the result showed that there is no significant difference between the means of the European options by using the above two models.

  20. Computational Modeling | Bioenergy | NREL

    Science.gov (United States)

    cell walls and are the source of biofuels and biomaterials. Our modeling investigates their properties . Quantum Mechanical Models NREL studies chemical and electronic properties and processes to reduce barriers Computational Modeling Computational Modeling NREL uses computational modeling to increase the

  1. Essays on model uncertainty in financial models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Li, Jing

    2018-01-01

    This dissertation studies model uncertainty, particularly in financial models. It consists of two empirical chapters and one theoretical chapter. The first empirical chapter (Chapter 2) classifies model uncertainty into parameter uncertainty and misspecification uncertainty. It investigates the

  2. Vector models and generalized SYK models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Peng, Cheng [Department of Physics, Brown University,Providence RI 02912 (United States)

    2017-05-23

    We consider the relation between SYK-like models and vector models by studying a toy model where a tensor field is coupled with a vector field. By integrating out the tensor field, the toy model reduces to the Gross-Neveu model in 1 dimension. On the other hand, a certain perturbation can be turned on and the toy model flows to an SYK-like model at low energy. A chaotic-nonchaotic phase transition occurs as the sign of the perturbation is altered. We further study similar models that possess chaos and enhanced reparameterization symmetries.

  3. Towards an integrative framework of brand country of origin recognition determinants : a cross-classified hierarchical model

    OpenAIRE

    Cerviño, Julio

    2011-01-01

    To propose a framework integrating the types and levels of the determinants of brand CO recognition and to provide evidence on Internet users’ brand CO recognition rates using a sample of multi-regional and global brands from a variety of product categories and countries. We integrate 'level-1' consumer and brand characteristics and 'level-2' product category and country effects in a single framework. Data obtained through an original on-line survey hosted by Yahoo provide the basis ...

  4. Modeling styles in business process modeling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pinggera, J.; Soffer, P.; Zugal, S.; Weber, B.; Weidlich, M.; Fahland, D.; Reijers, H.A.; Mendling, J.; Bider, I.; Halpin, T.; Krogstie, J.; Nurcan, S.; Proper, E.; Schmidt, R.; Soffer, P.; Wrycza, S.

    2012-01-01

    Research on quality issues of business process models has recently begun to explore the process of creating process models. As a consequence, the question arises whether different ways of creating process models exist. In this vein, we observed 115 students engaged in the act of modeling, recording

  5. The IMACLIM model; Le modele IMACLIM

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2003-07-01

    This document provides annexes to the IMACLIM model which propose an actualized description of IMACLIM, model allowing the design of an evaluation tool of the greenhouse gases reduction policies. The model is described in a version coupled with the POLES, technical and economical model of the energy industry. Notations, equations, sources, processing and specifications are proposed and detailed. (A.L.B.)

  6. From Product Models to Product State Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Michael Holm

    1999-01-01

    A well-known technology designed to handle product data is Product Models. Product Models are in their current form not able to handle all types of product state information. Hence, the concept of a Product State Model (PSM) is proposed. The PSM and in particular how to model a PSM is the Research...

  7. Vehicle technology under CO2 constraint: a general equilibrium analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schaefer, Andreas; Jacoby, Henry D.

    2006-01-01

    A study is presented of the rates of penetration of different transport technologies under policy constraints on CO 2 emissions. The response of this sector is analyzed within an overall national level of restriction, with a focus on automobiles, light trucks, and heavy freight trucks. Using the US as an example, a linked set of three models is used to carry out the analysis: a multi-sector computable general equilibrium model of the economy, a MARKAL-type model of vehicle and fuel supply technology, and a model simulating the split of personal and freight transport among modes. Results highlight the importance of incremental improvements in conventional internal combustion engine technology, and, in the absence of policies to overcome observed consumer discount rates, the very long time horizons before radical alternatives like the internal combustion engine hybrid drive train vehicle are likely to take substantial market share

  8. Modelling live forensic acquisition

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Grobler, MM

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper discusses the development of a South African model for Live Forensic Acquisition - Liforac. The Liforac model is a comprehensive model that presents a range of aspects related to Live Forensic Acquisition. The model provides forensic...

  9. Models in architectural design

    OpenAIRE

    Pauwels, Pieter

    2017-01-01

    Whereas architects and construction specialists used to rely mainly on sketches and physical models as representations of their own cognitive design models, they rely now more and more on computer models. Parametric models, generative models, as-built models, building information models (BIM), and so forth, they are used daily by any practitioner in architectural design and construction. Although processes of abstraction and the actual architectural model-based reasoning itself of course rema...

  10. Rotating universe models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tozini, A.V.

    1984-01-01

    A review is made of some properties of the rotating Universe models. Godel's model is identified as a generalized filted model. Some properties of new solutions of the Einstein's equations, which are rotating non-stationary Universe models, are presented and analyzed. These models have the Godel's model as a particular case. Non-stationary cosmological models are found which are a generalization of the Godel's metrics in an analogous way in which Friedmann is to the Einstein's model. (L.C.) [pt

  11. Concept Modeling vs. Data modeling in Practice

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Bodil Nistrup; Erdman Thomsen, Hanne

    2015-01-01

    This chapter shows the usefulness of terminological concept modeling as a first step in data modeling. First, we introduce terminological concept modeling with terminological ontologies, i.e. concept systems enriched with characteristics modeled as feature specifications. This enables a formal...... account of the inheritance of characteristics and allows us to introduce a number of principles and constraints which render concept modeling more coherent than earlier approaches. Second, we explain how terminological ontologies can be used as the basis for developing conceptual and logical data models....... We also show how to map from the various elements in the terminological ontology to elements in the data models, and explain the differences between the models. Finally the usefulness of terminological ontologies as a prerequisite for IT development and data modeling is illustrated with examples from...

  12. Model-to-model interface for multiscale materials modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Antonelli, Perry Edward [Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA (United States)

    2017-12-17

    A low-level model-to-model interface is presented that will enable independent models to be linked into an integrated system of models. The interface is based on a standard set of functions that contain appropriate export and import schemas that enable models to be linked with no changes to the models themselves. These ideas are presented in the context of a specific multiscale material problem that couples atomistic-based molecular dynamics calculations to continuum calculations of fluid ow. These simulations will be used to examine the influence of interactions of the fluid with an adjacent solid on the fluid ow. The interface will also be examined by adding it to an already existing modeling code, Large-scale Atomic/Molecular Massively Parallel Simulator (LAMMPS) and comparing it with our own molecular dynamics code.

  13. Cognitive models embedded in system simulation models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Siegel, A.I.; Wolf, J.J.

    1982-01-01

    If we are to discuss and consider cognitive models, we must first come to grips with two questions: (1) What is cognition; (2) What is a model. Presumably, the answers to these questions can provide a basis for defining a cognitive model. Accordingly, this paper first places these two questions into perspective. Then, cognitive models are set within the context of computer simulation models and a number of computer simulations of cognitive processes are described. Finally, pervasive issues are discussed vis-a-vis cognitive modeling in the computer simulation context

  14. Asia least-cost greenhouse gas abatement strategy identification and assessment of mitigation options for the energy sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gupta, Sujata; Bhandari, Preety

    1998-01-01

    The focus of the presentation was on greenhouse gas mitigation options for the energy sector for India. Results from the Asia Least-cost Greenhouse gas Abatement Strategies (ALGAS) project were presented. The presentation comprised of a review of the sources of greenhouse gases, the optimisation model, ie the Markal model, used for determining the least-cost options, discussion of the results from the baseline and the abatement scenarios. The second half of the presentation focussed on a multi-criteria assessment of the abatement options using the Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP) model. The emissions of all greenhouse gases, for India, are estimated to be 986.3 Tg of carbon dioxide equivalent for 1990. The energy sector accounted for 58 percent of the total emissions and over 90 percent of the CO2 emissions. Net emissions form land use change and forestry were zero. (au)

  15. Analysis of carbon dioxide emission from energy systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ihara, S.; Koyama, S.

    1992-01-01

    A linear programming model MARKAL is used to explore technology options and cost for meeting energy demands while reducing CO 2 emissions from energy system of Japan. The model consists of an extension of the existing energy system and possible alternative energy technologies available during 45 years from 1983 to 2027. Using two scenarios of high- and low-energy demand, an optimal configuration of the model is examined under the mix of specified constraints on the use of technologies and fuels. The results show that energy conservation is robust in yielding reduction in CO 2 emissions under a variety of conditions, and that stringent constraints on the national CO 2 emissions produce major shifts in the market shares of fossil and non-fossil fuels that necessitate advanced technologies and an increase in the total system cost

  16. Evaluation of climate change impacts on energy demand

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Taseska, Verica; Markovska, Natasa; Callaway, John M.

    2012-01-01

    change and the energy demand in Macedonia. The analyses are conducted using the MARKAL (MARKet ALlocation)-Macedonia model, with a focus on energy demand in commercial and residential sectors (mainly for heating and cooling). Three different cases are developed: 1) Base Case, which gives the optimal...... electricity production mix, taking into account country’s development plans (without climate change); 2) Climate Change Damage Case, which introduces the climate changes by adjusting the heating and cooling degree days inputs, consistent with the existing national climate scenarios; and 3) Climate Change...... Adaptation Case, in which the optimal electricity generation mix is determined by allowing for endogenous capacity adjustments in the model. This modeling exercise will identify the changes in the energy demand and in electricity generation mix in the Adaptation Case, as well as climate change damages...

  17. Optimisation of integrated energy and materials systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gielen, D.J.; Okken, P.A.

    1994-06-01

    To define cost-effective long term CO2 reduction strategies an integrated energy and materials system model for the Netherlands for the period 2000-2040 is developed. The model is based upon the energy system model MARKAL, which configures an optimal mix of technologies to satisfy the specified energy and product/materials service demands. This study concentrates on CO 2 emission reduction in the materials system. For this purpose, the energy system model is enlarged with a materials system model including all steps 'from cradle to grave'. The materials system model includes 29 materials, 20 product groups and 30 waste materials. The system is divided into seven types of technologies; 250 technologies are modeled. The results show that the integrated optimisation of the energy system and the materials system can significantly reduce the emission reduction costs, especially at higher reduction percentages. The reduction is achieved through shifts in materials production and waste handling and through materials substitution in products. Shifts in materials production and waste management seem cost-effective, while the cost-effectiveness of shifts in product composition is sensitive due to the cost structure of products. For the building sector, transportation applications and packaging, CO 2 policies show a significant impact on prices, and shifts in product composition could occur. For other products, the reduction through materials substitution seems less promising. The impact on materials consumption seems most significant for cement (reduced), timber and aluminium (both increased). For steel and plastics, the net effect is balanced, but shifts between applications do occur. The MARKAL-approach is feasible to study integrated energy and materials systems. The progress compared to other environmental system analysis instruments is much more insight in the interaction of technologies on a national scale and in time

  18. Model Manipulation for End-User Modelers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Acretoaie, Vlad

    , and transformations using their modeling notation and editor of choice. The VM* languages are implemented via a single execution engine, the VM* Runtime, built on top of the Henshin graph-based transformation engine. This approach combines the benefits of flexibility, maturity, and formality. To simplify model editor......End-user modelers are domain experts who create and use models as part of their work. They are typically not Software Engineers, and have little or no programming and meta-modeling experience. However, using model manipulation languages developed in the context of Model-Driven Engineering often...... requires such experience. These languages are therefore only used by a small subset of the modelers that could, in theory, benefit from them. The goals of this thesis are to substantiate this observation, introduce the concepts and tools required to overcome it, and provide empirical evidence in support...

  19. Air Quality Dispersion Modeling - Alternative Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Models, not listed in Appendix W, that can be used in regulatory applications with case-by-case justification to the Reviewing Authority as noted in Section 3.2, Use of Alternative Models, in Appendix W.

  20. Topological massive sigma models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lambert, N.D.

    1995-01-01

    In this paper we construct topological sigma models which include a potential and are related to twisted massive supersymmetric sigma models. Contrary to a previous construction these models have no central charge and do not require the manifold to admit a Killing vector. We use the topological massive sigma model constructed here to simplify the calculation of the observables. Lastly it is noted that this model can be viewed as interpolating between topological massless sigma models and topological Landau-Ginzburg models. ((orig.))

  1. Business Model Innovation

    OpenAIRE

    Dodgson, Mark; Gann, David; Phillips, Nelson; Massa, Lorenzo; Tucci, Christopher

    2014-01-01

    The chapter offers a broad review of the literature at the nexus between Business Models and innovation studies, and examines the notion of Business Model Innovation in three different situations: Business Model Design in newly formed organizations, Business Model Reconfiguration in incumbent firms, and Business Model Innovation in the broad context of sustainability. Tools and perspectives to make sense of Business Models and support managers and entrepreneurs in dealing with Business Model ...

  2. [Bone remodeling and modeling/mini-modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hasegawa, Tomoka; Amizuka, Norio

    Modeling, adapting structures to loading by changing bone size and shapes, often takes place in bone of the fetal and developmental stages, while bone remodeling-replacement of old bone into new bone-is predominant in the adult stage. Modeling can be divided into macro-modeling(macroscopic modeling)and mini-modeling(microscopic modeling). In the cellular process of mini-modeling, unlike bone remodeling, bone lining cells, i.e., resting flattened osteoblasts covering bone surfaces will become active form of osteoblasts, and then, deposit new bone onto the old bone without mediating osteoclastic bone resorption. Among the drugs for osteoporotic treatment, eldecalcitol(a vitamin D3 analog)and teriparatide(human PTH[1-34])could show mini-modeling based bone formation. Histologically, mature, active form of osteoblasts are localized on the new bone induced by mini-modeling, however, only a few cell layer of preosteoblasts are formed over the newly-formed bone, and accordingly, few osteoclasts are present in the region of mini-modeling. In this review, histological characteristics of bone remodeling and modeling including mini-modeling will be introduced.

  3. A Model of Trusted Measurement Model

    OpenAIRE

    Ma Zhili; Wang Zhihao; Dai Liang; Zhu Xiaoqin

    2017-01-01

    A model of Trusted Measurement supporting behavior measurement based on trusted connection architecture (TCA) with three entities and three levels is proposed, and a frame to illustrate the model is given. The model synthesizes three trusted measurement dimensions including trusted identity, trusted status and trusted behavior, satisfies the essential requirements of trusted measurement, and unified the TCA with three entities and three levels.

  4. Modelling binary data

    CERN Document Server

    Collett, David

    2002-01-01

    INTRODUCTION Some Examples The Scope of this Book Use of Statistical Software STATISTICAL INFERENCE FOR BINARY DATA The Binomial Distribution Inference about the Success Probability Comparison of Two Proportions Comparison of Two or More Proportions MODELS FOR BINARY AND BINOMIAL DATA Statistical Modelling Linear Models Methods of Estimation Fitting Linear Models to Binomial Data Models for Binomial Response Data The Linear Logistic Model Fitting the Linear Logistic Model to Binomial Data Goodness of Fit of a Linear Logistic Model Comparing Linear Logistic Models Linear Trend in Proportions Comparing Stimulus-Response Relationships Non-Convergence and Overfitting Some other Goodness of Fit Statistics Strategy for Model Selection Predicting a Binary Response Probability BIOASSAY AND SOME OTHER APPLICATIONS The Tolerance Distribution Estimating an Effective Dose Relative Potency Natural Response Non-Linear Logistic Regression Models Applications of the Complementary Log-Log Model MODEL CHECKING Definition of Re...

  5. The Lancet Countdown on PM2·5 pollution-related health impacts of China's projected carbon dioxide mitigation in the electric power generation sector under the Paris Agreement: a modelling study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wenjia Cai, PhD

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Summary: Background: Except for comparing the implementation costs of the Paris Agreement with potential health benefits at the national levels, previous studies have not explored the health impacts of the nationally determined contributions (NDCs by countries and in regional details. In this Lancet Countdown study, we aimed to estimate and monetise the health benefits of China's NDCs in the electric power generation sector, and then compare them with the implementation costs, both at the national and regional levels. Methods: In this modelling study, we linked the Multi-regional model for Energy Supply system and their Environmental ImpaCts, the Multi-resolution Emission Inventory for China model, the offline-coupled Weather Research and Forecasting model, the Community Multiscale Air Quality model, and the Integrated Health Impact Assessment model with a time scope from 2010 to 2050. We calculated the PM2·5 concentrations and compared the health impacts and implementation costs between two scenarios that reflect CO2 and air pollutant emissions—the reference (REF scenario (no climate policy and the NDC scenario (100% realisation of NDC targets: CO2 emission intensity needs to be about 40% below 2010 emissions by 2030 [roughly 35% below 2030 emissions in REF], and about 90% below 2010 emissions by 2050 [roughly 96% below 2050 emissions in REF]. Findings: Under a comparatively optimistic health benefits valuation condition, at the national level, 18–62% of implementation costs could be covered by the health benefits in 2030. In 2050, the overall health benefits would substantially increase to 3–9 times of the implementation costs. However, northwest China would require the highest implementation costs and will also have more premature deaths because of a more carbon-intensive energy structure than business as usual. By 2030, people in northwest China (especially in Gansu, Shaanxi, and Xinjiang provinces would need to bear worse air quality

  6. Modelling freight transport

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tavasszy, L.A.; Jong, G. de

    2014-01-01

    Freight Transport Modelling is a unique new reference book that provides insight into the state-of-the-art of freight modelling. Focusing on models used to support public transport policy analysis, Freight Transport Modelling systematically introduces the latest freight transport modelling

  7. Semantic Business Process Modeling

    OpenAIRE

    Markovic, Ivan

    2010-01-01

    This book presents a process-oriented business modeling framework based on semantic technologies. The framework consists of modeling languages, methods, and tools that allow for semantic modeling of business motivation, business policies and rules, and business processes. Quality of the proposed modeling framework is evaluated based on the modeling content of SAP Solution Composer and several real-world business scenarios.

  8. Modelling of Hydraulic Robot

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Henrik; Zhou, Jianjun; Hansen, Lars Henrik

    1997-01-01

    This paper describes a case study of identifying the physical model (or the grey box model) of a hydraulic test robot. The obtained model is intended to provide a basis for model-based control of the robot. The physical model is formulated in continuous time and is derived by application...

  9. Model-Independent Diffs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Könemann, Patrick

    just contain a list of strings, one for each line, whereas the structure of models is defined by their meta models. There are tools available which are able to compute the diff between two models, e.g. RSA or EMF Compare. However, their diff is not model-independent, i.e. it refers to the models...

  10. Forest-fire models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haiganoush Preisler; Alan Ager

    2013-01-01

    For applied mathematicians forest fire models refer mainly to a non-linear dynamic system often used to simulate spread of fire. For forest managers forest fire models may pertain to any of the three phases of fire management: prefire planning (fire risk models), fire suppression (fire behavior models), and postfire evaluation (fire effects and economic models). In...

  11. Environmental Satellite Models for a Macroeconomic Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moeller, F.; Grinderslev, D.; Werner, M.

    2003-01-01

    To support national environmental policy, it is desirable to forecast and analyse environmental indicators consistently with economic variables. However, environmental indicators are physical measures linked to physical activities that are not specified in economic models. One way to deal with this is to develop environmental satellite models linked to economic models. The system of models presented gives a frame of reference where emissions of greenhouse gases, acid gases, and leaching of nutrients to the aquatic environment are analysed in line with - and consistently with - macroeconomic variables. This paper gives an overview of the data and the satellite models. Finally, the results of applying the model system to calculate the impacts on emissions and the economy are reviewed in a few illustrative examples. The models have been developed for Denmark; however, most of the environmental data used are from the CORINAIR system implemented in numerous countries

  12. Geologic Framework Model Analysis Model Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    R. Clayton

    2000-12-19

    The purpose of this report is to document the Geologic Framework Model (GFM), Version 3.1 (GFM3.1) with regard to data input, modeling methods, assumptions, uncertainties, limitations, and validation of the model results, qualification status of the model, and the differences between Version 3.1 and previous versions. The GFM represents a three-dimensional interpretation of the stratigraphy and structural features of the location of the potential Yucca Mountain radioactive waste repository. The GFM encompasses an area of 65 square miles (170 square kilometers) and a volume of 185 cubic miles (771 cubic kilometers). The boundaries of the GFM were chosen to encompass the most widely distributed set of exploratory boreholes (the Water Table or WT series) and to provide a geologic framework over the area of interest for hydrologic flow and radionuclide transport modeling through the unsaturated zone (UZ). The depth of the model is constrained by the inferred depth of the Tertiary-Paleozoic unconformity. The GFM was constructed from geologic map and borehole data. Additional information from measured stratigraphy sections, gravity profiles, and seismic profiles was also considered. This interim change notice (ICN) was prepared in accordance with the Technical Work Plan for the Integrated Site Model Process Model Report Revision 01 (CRWMS M&O 2000). The constraints, caveats, and limitations associated with this model are discussed in the appropriate text sections that follow. The GFM is one component of the Integrated Site Model (ISM) (Figure l), which has been developed to provide a consistent volumetric portrayal of the rock layers, rock properties, and mineralogy of the Yucca Mountain site. The ISM consists of three components: (1) Geologic Framework Model (GFM); (2) Rock Properties Model (RPM); and (3) Mineralogic Model (MM). The ISM merges the detailed project stratigraphy into model stratigraphic units that are most useful for the primary downstream models and the

  13. Geologic Framework Model Analysis Model Report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clayton, R.

    2000-01-01

    The purpose of this report is to document the Geologic Framework Model (GFM), Version 3.1 (GFM3.1) with regard to data input, modeling methods, assumptions, uncertainties, limitations, and validation of the model results, qualification status of the model, and the differences between Version 3.1 and previous versions. The GFM represents a three-dimensional interpretation of the stratigraphy and structural features of the location of the potential Yucca Mountain radioactive waste repository. The GFM encompasses an area of 65 square miles (170 square kilometers) and a volume of 185 cubic miles (771 cubic kilometers). The boundaries of the GFM were chosen to encompass the most widely distributed set of exploratory boreholes (the Water Table or WT series) and to provide a geologic framework over the area of interest for hydrologic flow and radionuclide transport modeling through the unsaturated zone (UZ). The depth of the model is constrained by the inferred depth of the Tertiary-Paleozoic unconformity. The GFM was constructed from geologic map and borehole data. Additional information from measured stratigraphy sections, gravity profiles, and seismic profiles was also considered. This interim change notice (ICN) was prepared in accordance with the Technical Work Plan for the Integrated Site Model Process Model Report Revision 01 (CRWMS M and O 2000). The constraints, caveats, and limitations associated with this model are discussed in the appropriate text sections that follow. The GFM is one component of the Integrated Site Model (ISM) (Figure l), which has been developed to provide a consistent volumetric portrayal of the rock layers, rock properties, and mineralogy of the Yucca Mountain site. The ISM consists of three components: (1) Geologic Framework Model (GFM); (2) Rock Properties Model (RPM); and (3) Mineralogic Model (MM). The ISM merges the detailed project stratigraphy into model stratigraphic units that are most useful for the primary downstream models and

  14. Lapse rate modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    De Giovanni, Domenico

    2010-01-01

    prepayment models for mortgage backed securities, this paper builds a Rational Expectation (RE) model describing the policyholders' behavior in lapsing the contract. A market model with stochastic interest rates is considered, and the pricing is carried out through numerical approximation...

  15. Lapse Rate Modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    De Giovanni, Domenico

    prepayment models for mortgage backed securities, this paper builds a Rational Expectation (RE) model describing the policyholders' behavior in lapsing the contract. A market model with stochastic interest rates is considered, and the pricing is carried out through numerical approximation...

  16. Multivariate GARCH models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Silvennoinen, Annastiina; Teräsvirta, Timo

    This article contains a review of multivariate GARCH models. Most common GARCH models are presented and their properties considered. This also includes nonparametric and semiparametric models. Existing specification and misspecification tests are discussed. Finally, there is an empirical example...

  17. Collaborative networks: Reference modeling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Camarinha-Matos, L.M.; Afsarmanesh, H.

    2008-01-01

    Collaborative Networks: Reference Modeling works to establish a theoretical foundation for Collaborative Networks. Particular emphasis is put on modeling multiple facets of collaborative networks and establishing a comprehensive modeling framework that captures and structures diverse perspectives of

  18. Models in Action

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Juhl, Joakim

    This thesis is about mathematical modelling and technology development. While mathematical modelling has become widely deployed within a broad range of scientific practices, it has also gained a central position within technology development. The intersection of mathematical modelling and technol...

  19. Business Model Canvas

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    D'Souza, Austin

    2013-01-01

    Presentatie gegeven op 13 mei 2013 op de bijeenkomst "Business Model Canvas Challenge Assen".
    Het Business Model Canvas is ontworpen door Alex Osterwalder. Het model werkt zeer overzichtelijk en bestaat uit negen bouwstenen.

  20. Energy modelling software

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Osburn, L

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The construction industry has turned to energy modelling in order to assist them in reducing the amount of energy consumed by buildings. However, while the energy loads of buildings can be accurately modelled, energy models often under...

  1. Wildfire Risk Main Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    Earth Data Analysis Center, University of New Mexico — The model combines three modeled fire behavior parameters (rate of spread, flame length, crown fire potential) and one modeled ecological health measure (fire regime...

  2. Mathematical Modeling Using MATLAB

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Phillips, Donovan

    1998-01-01

    .... Mathematical Modeling Using MA MATLAB acts as a companion resource to A First Course in Mathematical Modeling with the goal of guiding the reader to a fuller understanding of the modeling process...

  3. Economic assessment of combined cycle gas turbines in Australia Some effects of microeconomic reform and technological change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Naughten, Barry

    2003-01-01

    Australian electricity markets and natural gas markets are undergoing rapid reform. Choosing among electricity generation modes is a key issue. Such choices are affected by expectations about the future structure of these markets and future technologies, and how they affect costs and emissions. In the research reported in this paper, the MARKAL model of the Australian energy system is used to evaluate the competitive position of natural gas fired combined cycle gas turbines (CCGTs) in the energy sector as a whole. Competing in the sector are large-scale electricity generation technologies such as refurbished existing coal fired stations and advanced forms of coal fired generation. The modelling incorporates new data on electricity supply technologies and options

  4. India’s GHG Emission Reduction and Sustainable Development

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shukla, P.; Dhar, Subash

    2016-01-01

    India has made voluntary commitment for reducing the emission intensity of GDP in the year 2020 by 20–25 % below that in the year 2005. The Indian approach is based on delineating and implementing cost-effective mitigation actions which can contribute to national sustainable development goals while...... an optimal roadmap of actions in India which can maximize net total benefits of carbon emissions mitigation and national sustainable development. A key contribution of the paper is the estimation of the net social value of carbon in India which is an important input for provisioning carbon finance...... model ANSWER-MARKAL, which is embedded within a soft-linked integrated model system (SLIMS). The central themes of the three scenario storylines and assumptions are as follows: first, a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario that assumes the socioeconomic development to happen along the conventional path...

  5. Assessment of demand for natural gas from the electricity sector in India

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shukla, P.R.; Dhar, Subash; Victor, David G.

    2009-01-01

    Electricity sector is among the key users of natural gas. The sustained electricity deficit and environment policies have added to an already rising demand for gas. This paper tries to understand gas demand in future from electricity sector. This paper models the future demand for gas in India from...... the electricity sector under alternative scenarios for the period 2005–2025, using bottom-up ANSWER MARKAL model. The scenarios are differentiated by alternate economic growth projections and policies related to coal reforms, infrastructure choices and local environment. The results across scenarios show that gas...... competes with coal as a base-load option if price difference is below US $ 4 per MBtu. At higher price difference gas penetrates only the peak power market. Gas demand is lower in the high economic growth scenario, since electricity sector is more flexible in substitution of primary energy. Gas demand...

  6. Parametric sensitivity analysis for techno-economic parameters in Indian power sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mallah, Subhash; Bansal, N.K.

    2011-01-01

    Sensitivity analysis is a technique that evaluates the model response to changes in input assumptions. Due to uncertain prices of primary fuels in the world market, Government regulations for sustainability and various other technical parameters there is a need to analyze the techno-economic parameters which play an important role in policy formulations. This paper examines the variations in technical as well as economic parameters that can mostly affect the energy policy of India. MARKAL energy simulation model has been used to analyze the uncertainty in all techno-economic parameters. Various ranges of input parameters are adopted from previous studies. The results show that at lower discount rate coal is the least preferred technology and correspondingly carbon emission reduction. With increased gas and nuclear fuel prices they disappear from the allocations of energy mix.

  7. Analytic Modeling of Insurgencies

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-08-01

    Counterinsurgency, Situational Awareness, Civilians, Lanchester 1. Introduction Combat modeling is one of the oldest areas of operations research, dating...Army. The ground-breaking work of Lanchester in 1916 [1] marks the beginning of formal models of conflicts, where mathematical formulas and, later...Warfare model [3], which is a Lanchester - based mathematical model (see more details about this model later on), and McCormick’s Magic Diamond model [4

  8. Computational neurogenetic modeling

    CERN Document Server

    Benuskova, Lubica

    2010-01-01

    Computational Neurogenetic Modeling is a student text, introducing the scope and problems of a new scientific discipline - Computational Neurogenetic Modeling (CNGM). CNGM is concerned with the study and development of dynamic neuronal models for modeling brain functions with respect to genes and dynamic interactions between genes. These include neural network models and their integration with gene network models. This new area brings together knowledge from various scientific disciplines, such as computer and information science, neuroscience and cognitive science, genetics and molecular biol

  9. Environmental Modeling Center

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Laboratory Consortium — The Environmental Modeling Center provides the computational tools to perform geostatistical analysis, to model ground water and atmospheric releases for comparison...

  10. Multilevel modeling using R

    CERN Document Server

    Finch, W Holmes; Kelley, Ken

    2014-01-01

    A powerful tool for analyzing nested designs in a variety of fields, multilevel/hierarchical modeling allows researchers to account for data collected at multiple levels. Multilevel Modeling Using R provides you with a helpful guide to conducting multilevel data modeling using the R software environment.After reviewing standard linear models, the authors present the basics of multilevel models and explain how to fit these models using R. They then show how to employ multilevel modeling with longitudinal data and demonstrate the valuable graphical options in R. The book also describes models fo

  11. Cosmological models without singularities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Petry, W.

    1981-01-01

    A previously studied theory of gravitation in flat space-time is applied to homogeneous and isotropic cosmological models. There exist two different classes of models without singularities: (i) ever-expanding models, (ii) oscillating models. The first class contains models with hot big bang. For these models there exist at the beginning of the universe-in contrast to Einstein's theory-very high but finite densities of matter and radiation with a big bang of very short duration. After short time these models pass into the homogeneous and isotropic models of Einstein's theory with spatial curvature equal to zero and cosmological constant ALPHA >= O. (author)

  12. TRACKING CLIMATE MODELS

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — CLAIRE MONTELEONI*, GAVIN SCHMIDT, AND SHAILESH SAROHA* Climate models are complex mathematical models designed by meteorologists, geophysicists, and climate...

  13. Modelling of fluid flow in fractured porous media by the singular integral equations method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vu, M.N.

    2012-01-01

    -consistent scheme have been in particular established. The multi-region approach can be used to extend the general potential solution written for the infinite domain to that for a finite domain. A closed-form solution for flow in and around a single partially saturated fracture, surrounded by an infinite matrix subjected to a far-field condition, is also derived combining the solutions for a superconductive fracture and for an impervious fracture. This solution is then employed to estimate the effective permeability of unsaturated fractured porous media.The effective permeability model is applied to study the hydro-mechanical behaviour of a fault zone constituted by a clay core surrounded by fractured zones in the context of CO 2 geological storage. The pressure injection induces an overpressure in the reservoir that may affect the permeability of the fractured zones leading to complex coupled hydro-mechanical phenomena. The simulation results allow evaluating the risk of leakage of the reservoir brine to higher aquifers as well as the risk of fault reactivation. (author)

  14. ROCK PROPERTIES MODEL ANALYSIS MODEL REPORT

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clinton Lum

    2002-01-01

    The purpose of this Analysis and Model Report (AMR) is to document Rock Properties Model (RPM) 3.1 with regard to input data, model methods, assumptions, uncertainties and limitations of model results, and qualification status of the model. The report also documents the differences between the current and previous versions and validation of the model. The rock properties models are intended principally for use as input to numerical physical-process modeling, such as of ground-water flow and/or radionuclide transport. The constraints, caveats, and limitations associated with this model are discussed in the appropriate text sections that follow. This work was conducted in accordance with the following planning documents: WA-0344, ''3-D Rock Properties Modeling for FY 1998'' (SNL 1997, WA-0358), ''3-D Rock Properties Modeling for FY 1999'' (SNL 1999), and the technical development plan, Rock Properties Model Version 3.1, (CRWMS MandO 1999c). The Interim Change Notice (ICNs), ICN 02 and ICN 03, of this AMR were prepared as part of activities being conducted under the Technical Work Plan, TWP-NBS-GS-000003, ''Technical Work Plan for the Integrated Site Model, Process Model Report, Revision 01'' (CRWMS MandO 2000b). The purpose of ICN 03 is to record changes in data input status due to data qualification and verification activities. These work plans describe the scope, objectives, tasks, methodology, and implementing procedures for model construction. The constraints, caveats, and limitations associated with this model are discussed in the appropriate text sections that follow. The work scope for this activity consists of the following: (1) Conversion of the input data (laboratory measured porosity data, x-ray diffraction mineralogy, petrophysical calculations of bound water, and petrophysical calculations of porosity) for each borehole into stratigraphic coordinates; (2) Re-sampling and merging of data sets; (3) Development of geostatistical simulations of porosity; (4

  15. Integrated Site Model Process Model Report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Booth, T.

    2000-01-01

    The Integrated Site Model (ISM) provides a framework for discussing the geologic features and properties of Yucca Mountain, which is being evaluated as a potential site for a geologic repository for the disposal of nuclear waste. The ISM is important to the evaluation of the site because it provides 3-D portrayals of site geologic, rock property, and mineralogic characteristics and their spatial variabilities. The ISM is not a single discrete model; rather, it is a set of static representations that provide three-dimensional (3-D), computer representations of site geology, selected hydrologic and rock properties, and mineralogic-characteristics data. These representations are manifested in three separate model components of the ISM: the Geologic Framework Model (GFM), the Rock Properties Model (RPM), and the Mineralogic Model (MM). The GFM provides a representation of the 3-D stratigraphy and geologic structure. Based on the framework provided by the GFM, the RPM and MM provide spatial simulations of the rock and hydrologic properties, and mineralogy, respectively. Functional summaries of the component models and their respective output are provided in Section 1.4. Each of the component models of the ISM considers different specific aspects of the site geologic setting. Each model was developed using unique methodologies and inputs, and the determination of the modeled units for each of the components is dependent on the requirements of that component. Therefore, while the ISM represents the integration of the rock properties and mineralogy into a geologic framework, the discussion of ISM construction and results is most appropriately presented in terms of the three separate components. This Process Model Report (PMR) summarizes the individual component models of the ISM (the GFM, RPM, and MM) and describes how the three components are constructed and combined to form the ISM

  16. ECONOMIC MODELING STOCKS CONTROL SYSTEM: SIMULATION MODEL

    OpenAIRE

    Климак, М.С.; Войтко, С.В.

    2016-01-01

    Considered theoretical and applied aspects of the development of simulation models to predictthe optimal development and production systems that create tangible products andservices. It isproved that theprocessof inventory control needs of economicandmathematical modeling in viewof thecomplexity of theoretical studies. A simulation model of stocks control that allows make managementdecisions with production logistics

  17. Modelling bankruptcy prediction models in Slovak companies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kovacova Maria

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available An intensive research from academics and practitioners has been provided regarding models for bankruptcy prediction and credit risk management. In spite of numerous researches focusing on forecasting bankruptcy using traditional statistics techniques (e.g. discriminant analysis and logistic regression and early artificial intelligence models (e.g. artificial neural networks, there is a trend for transition to machine learning models (support vector machines, bagging, boosting, and random forest to predict bankruptcy one year prior to the event. Comparing the performance of this with unconventional approach with results obtained by discriminant analysis, logistic regression, and neural networks application, it has been found that bagging, boosting, and random forest models outperform the others techniques, and that all prediction accuracy in the testing sample improves when the additional variables are included. On the other side the prediction accuracy of old and well known bankruptcy prediction models is quiet high. Therefore, we aim to analyse these in some way old models on the dataset of Slovak companies to validate their prediction ability in specific conditions. Furthermore, these models will be modelled according to new trends by calculating the influence of elimination of selected variables on the overall prediction ability of these models.

  18. Better models are more effectively connected models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nunes, João Pedro; Bielders, Charles; Darboux, Frederic; Fiener, Peter; Finger, David; Turnbull-Lloyd, Laura; Wainwright, John

    2016-04-01

    The concept of hydrologic and geomorphologic connectivity describes the processes and pathways which link sources (e.g. rainfall, snow and ice melt, springs, eroded areas and barren lands) to accumulation areas (e.g. foot slopes, streams, aquifers, reservoirs), and the spatial variations thereof. There are many examples of hydrological and sediment connectivity on a watershed scale; in consequence, a process-based understanding of connectivity is crucial to help managers understand their systems and adopt adequate measures for flood prevention, pollution mitigation and soil protection, among others. Modelling is often used as a tool to understand and predict fluxes within a catchment by complementing observations with model results. Catchment models should therefore be able to reproduce the linkages, and thus the connectivity of water and sediment fluxes within the systems under simulation. In modelling, a high level of spatial and temporal detail is desirable to ensure taking into account a maximum number of components, which then enables connectivity to emerge from the simulated structures and functions. However, computational constraints and, in many cases, lack of data prevent the representation of all relevant processes and spatial/temporal variability in most models. In most cases, therefore, the level of detail selected for modelling is too coarse to represent the system in a way in which connectivity can emerge; a problem which can be circumvented by representing fine-scale structures and processes within coarser scale models using a variety of approaches. This poster focuses on the results of ongoing discussions on modelling connectivity held during several workshops within COST Action Connecteur. It assesses the current state of the art of incorporating the concept of connectivity in hydrological and sediment models, as well as the attitudes of modellers towards this issue. The discussion will focus on the different approaches through which connectivity

  19. Economic and Environmental Evaluation of Flexible Integrated Gasification Polygeneration Facilities Equipped with Carbon Capture and Storage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aitken, M.; Yelverton, W. H.; Dodder, R. S.; Loughlin, D. H.

    2014-12-01

    Among the diverse menu of technologies for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, one option involves pairing carbon capture and storage (CCS) with the generation of synthetic fuels and electricity from co-processed coal and biomass. In this scheme, the feedstocks are first converted to syngas, from which a Fischer-Tropsch (FT) process reactor and combined cycle turbine produce liquid fuels and electricity, respectively. With low concentrations of sulfur and other contaminants, the synthetic fuels are expected to be cleaner than conventional crude oil products. And with CO2 as an inherent byproduct of the FT process, most of the GHG emissions can be eliminated by simply compressing the CO2 output stream for pipeline transport. In fact, the incorporation of CCS at such facilities can result in very low—or perhaps even negative—net GHG emissions, depending on the fraction of biomass as input and its CO2 signature. To examine the potential market penetration and environmental impact of coal and biomass to liquids and electricity (CBtLE), which encompasses various possible combinations of input and output parameters within the overall energy landscape, a system-wide analysis is performed using the MARKet ALlocation (MARKAL) model. With resource supplies, energy conversion technologies, end-use demands, costs, and pollutant emissions as user-defined inputs, MARKAL calculates—using linear programming techniques—the least-cost set of technologies that satisfy the specified demands subject to environmental and policy constraints. In this framework, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has developed both national and regional databases to characterize assorted technologies in the industrial, commercial, residential, transportation, and generation sectors of the U.S. energy system. Here, the EPA MARKAL database is updated to include the costs and emission characteristics of CBtLE using figures from the literature. Nested sensitivity analysis is then

  20. Indonesia country study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1999-09-01

    This study demonstrated the use of MARKAL model in carbon mitigation analysis for both energy and forestry sector. Four scenarios were used namely: 1. EbFb (baseline scenario). In this scenario, mitigation technologies in the energy sector were not included in the model and no target was set up for increasing net carbon uptake by forest activities. 2. EmFb. Mitigation technologies in the energy sector were included with the target of reducing cumulative net carbon emission by about 13% and activities in the forestry sectors were the same as those in baseline. 3. EbFm. Mitigation technologies in the energy sector were not included and the forestry activities were targeted to increase the carbon uptake so that the cumulative net carbon emission decreased by 13%. 4. EmFm. Mitigation technologies in the energy sector were included as well as forestry sector with target of reducing cumulative net carbon emission by about 35%. This study indicates that the MARKAL model has the potential to be used for mitigation analysis for both energy and forestry sectors. However, there are some limitations encountered during the study. The program is not able to accommodate the delayed emission from the forestry sector in a manner consistent to the treatment of emissions in the energy sector. In addition, there are some technical problems that still need to be resolved such as the inclusion of soil carbon uptake calculation in the model and the verification of carbon uptake calculation. In this study, all carbon uptakes was assumed to occur at the time of planting. (EHS) 37 refs.

  1. Generalized latent variable modeling multilevel, longitudinal, and structural equation models

    CERN Document Server

    Skrondal, Anders; Rabe-Hesketh, Sophia

    2004-01-01

    This book unifies and extends latent variable models, including multilevel or generalized linear mixed models, longitudinal or panel models, item response or factor models, latent class or finite mixture models, and structural equation models.

  2. Biosphere Model Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    D. W. Wu

    2003-07-16

    The purpose of this report is to document the biosphere model, the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN), which describes radionuclide transport processes in the biosphere and associated human exposure that may arise as the result of radionuclide release from the geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. The biosphere model is one of the process models that support the Yucca Mountain Project (YMP) Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for the license application (LA), the TSPA-LA. The ERMYN model provides the capability of performing human radiation dose assessments. This report documents the biosphere model, which includes: (1) Describing the reference biosphere, human receptor, exposure scenarios, and primary radionuclides for each exposure scenario (Section 6.1); (2) Developing a biosphere conceptual model using site-specific features, events, and processes (FEPs), the reference biosphere, the human receptor, and assumptions (Section 6.2 and Section 6.3); (3) Building a mathematical model using the biosphere conceptual model and published biosphere models (Sections 6.4 and 6.5); (4) Summarizing input parameters for the mathematical model, including the uncertainty associated with input values (Section 6.6); (5) Identifying improvements in the ERMYN model compared with the model used in previous biosphere modeling (Section 6.7); (6) Constructing an ERMYN implementation tool (model) based on the biosphere mathematical model using GoldSim stochastic simulation software (Sections 6.8 and 6.9); (7) Verifying the ERMYN model by comparing output from the software with hand calculations to ensure that the GoldSim implementation is correct (Section 6.10); and (8) Validating the ERMYN model by corroborating it with published biosphere models; comparing conceptual models, mathematical models, and numerical results (Section 7).

  3. Biosphere Model Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    M. A. Wasiolek

    2003-10-27

    The purpose of this report is to document the biosphere model, the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN), which describes radionuclide transport processes in the biosphere and associated human exposure that may arise as the result of radionuclide release from the geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. The biosphere model is one of the process models that support the Yucca Mountain Project (YMP) Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for the license application (LA), the TSPA-LA. The ERMYN model provides the capability of performing human radiation dose assessments. This report documents the biosphere model, which includes: (1) Describing the reference biosphere, human receptor, exposure scenarios, and primary radionuclides for each exposure scenario (Section 6.1); (2) Developing a biosphere conceptual model using site-specific features, events, and processes (FEPs), the reference biosphere, the human receptor, and assumptions (Section 6.2 and Section 6.3); (3) Building a mathematical model using the biosphere conceptual model and published biosphere models (Sections 6.4 and 6.5); (4) Summarizing input parameters for the mathematical model, including the uncertainty associated with input values (Section 6.6); (5) Identifying improvements in the ERMYN model compared with the model used in previous biosphere modeling (Section 6.7); (6) Constructing an ERMYN implementation tool (model) based on the biosphere mathematical model using GoldSim stochastic simulation software (Sections 6.8 and 6.9); (7) Verifying the ERMYN model by comparing output from the software with hand calculations to ensure that the GoldSim implementation is correct (Section 6.10); and (8) Validating the ERMYN model by corroborating it with published biosphere models; comparing conceptual models, mathematical models, and numerical results (Section 7).

  4. Biosphere Model Report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    D. W. Wu

    2003-01-01

    The purpose of this report is to document the biosphere model, the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN), which describes radionuclide transport processes in the biosphere and associated human exposure that may arise as the result of radionuclide release from the geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. The biosphere model is one of the process models that support the Yucca Mountain Project (YMP) Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for the license application (LA), the TSPA-LA. The ERMYN model provides the capability of performing human radiation dose assessments. This report documents the biosphere model, which includes: (1) Describing the reference biosphere, human receptor, exposure scenarios, and primary radionuclides for each exposure scenario (Section 6.1); (2) Developing a biosphere conceptual model using site-specific features, events, and processes (FEPs), the reference biosphere, the human receptor, and assumptions (Section 6.2 and Section 6.3); (3) Building a mathematical model using the biosphere conceptual model and published biosphere models (Sections 6.4 and 6.5); (4) Summarizing input parameters for the mathematical model, including the uncertainty associated with input values (Section 6.6); (5) Identifying improvements in the ERMYN model compared with the model used in previous biosphere modeling (Section 6.7); (6) Constructing an ERMYN implementation tool (model) based on the biosphere mathematical model using GoldSim stochastic simulation software (Sections 6.8 and 6.9); (7) Verifying the ERMYN model by comparing output from the software with hand calculations to ensure that the GoldSim implementation is correct (Section 6.10); and (8) Validating the ERMYN model by corroborating it with published biosphere models; comparing conceptual models, mathematical models, and numerical results (Section 7)

  5. AIDS Epidemiological models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahmani, Fouad Lazhar

    2010-11-01

    The aim of this paper is to present mathematical modelling of the spread of infection in the context of the transmission of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and the acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS). These models are based in part on the models suggested in the field of th AIDS mathematical modelling as reported by ISHAM [6].

  6. A Model for Conversation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ayres, Phil

    2012-01-01

    This essay discusses models. It examines what models are, the roles models perform and suggests various intentions that underlie their construction and use. It discusses how models act as a conversational partner, and how they support various forms of conversation within the conversational activity...

  7. HRM: HII Region Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wenger, Trey V.; Kepley, Amanda K.; Balser, Dana S.

    2017-07-01

    HII Region Models fits HII region models to observed radio recombination line and radio continuum data. The algorithm includes the calculations of departure coefficients to correct for non-LTE effects. HII Region Models has been used to model star formation in the nucleus of IC 342.

  8. Lumped-parameter models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ibsen, Lars Bo; Liingaard, M.

    2006-12-15

    A lumped-parameter model represents the frequency dependent soil-structure interaction of a massless foundation placed on or embedded into an unbounded soil domain. In this technical report the steps of establishing a lumped-parameter model are presented. Following sections are included in this report: Static and dynamic formulation, Simple lumped-parameter models and Advanced lumped-parameter models. (au)

  9. The Moody Mask Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Bjarke Alexander; Andkjær, Kasper Ingdahl; Schoenau-Fog, Henrik

    2015-01-01

    This paper proposes a new relation model, called "The Moody Mask model", for Interactive Digital Storytelling (IDS), based on Franceso Osborne's "Mask Model" from 2011. This, mixed with some elements from Chris Crawford's Personality Models, is a system designed for dynamic interaction between ch...

  10. Efficient polarimetric BRDF model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Renhorn, Ingmar G E; Hallberg, Tomas; Boreman, Glenn D

    2015-11-30

    The purpose of the present manuscript is to present a polarimetric bidirectional reflectance distribution function (BRDF) model suitable for hyperspectral and polarimetric signature modelling. The model is based on a further development of a previously published four-parameter model that has been generalized in order to account for different types of surface structures (generalized Gaussian distribution). A generalization of the Lambertian diffuse model is presented. The pBRDF-functions are normalized using numerical integration. Using directional-hemispherical reflectance (DHR) measurements, three of the four basic parameters can be determined for any wavelength. This simplifies considerably the development of multispectral polarimetric BRDF applications. The scattering parameter has to be determined from at least one BRDF measurement. The model deals with linear polarized radiation; and in similarity with e.g. the facet model depolarization is not included. The model is very general and can inherently model extreme surfaces such as mirrors and Lambertian surfaces. The complex mixture of sources is described by the sum of two basic models, a generalized Gaussian/Fresnel model and a generalized Lambertian model. Although the physics inspired model has some ad hoc features, the predictive power of the model is impressive over a wide range of angles and scattering magnitudes. The model has been applied successfully to painted surfaces, both dull and glossy and also on metallic bead blasted surfaces. The simple and efficient model should be attractive for polarimetric simulations and polarimetric remote sensing.

  11. Validation of HEDR models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Napier, B.A.; Simpson, J.C.; Eslinger, P.W.; Ramsdell, J.V. Jr.; Thiede, M.E.; Walters, W.H.

    1994-05-01

    The Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction (HEDR) Project has developed a set of computer models for estimating the possible radiation doses that individuals may have received from past Hanford Site operations. This document describes the validation of these models. In the HEDR Project, the model validation exercise consisted of comparing computational model estimates with limited historical field measurements and experimental measurements that are independent of those used to develop the models. The results of any one test do not mean that a model is valid. Rather, the collection of tests together provide a level of confidence that the HEDR models are valid

  12. Composite hadron models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ogava, S.; Savada, S.; Nakagava, M.

    1983-01-01

    Composite models of hadrons are considered. The main attention is paid to the Sakata, S model. In the framework of the model it is presupposed that proton, neutron and Λ particle are the fundamental particles. Theoretical studies of unknown fundamental constituents of a substance have led to the creation of the quark model. In the framework of the quark model using the theory of SU(6)-symmetry the classification of mesons and baryons is considered. Using the quark model relations between hadron masses, their spins and electromagnetic properties are explained. The problem of three-colour model with many flavours is briefly presented

  13. Modeller af komplicerede systemer

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mortensen, J.

    emphasizes their use in relation to technical systems. All the presented models, with the exception of the types presented in chapter 2, are non-theoretical non-formal conceptual network models. Two new model types are presented: 1) The System-Environment model, which describes the environments interaction...... with conceptual modeling in relation to process control. It´s purpose is to present classify and exemplify the use of a set of qualitative model types. Such model types are useful in the early phase of modeling, where no structured methods are at hand. Although the models are general in character, this thesis......This thesis, "Modeller af komplicerede systemer", represents part of the requirements for the Danish Ph.D.degree. Assisting professor John Nørgaard-Nielsen, M.Sc.E.E.Ph.D. has been principal supervisor and professor Morten Lind, M.Sc.E.E.Ph.D. has been assisting supervisor. The thesis is concerned...

  14. Equivalent Dynamic Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molenaar, Peter C M

    2017-01-01

    Equivalences of two classes of dynamic models for weakly stationary multivariate time series are discussed: dynamic factor models and autoregressive models. It is shown that exploratory dynamic factor models can be rotated, yielding an infinite set of equivalent solutions for any observed series. It also is shown that dynamic factor models with lagged factor loadings are not equivalent to the currently popular state-space models, and that restriction of attention to the latter type of models may yield invalid results. The known equivalent vector autoregressive model types, standard and structural, are given a new interpretation in which they are conceived of as the extremes of an innovating type of hybrid vector autoregressive models. It is shown that consideration of hybrid models solves many problems, in particular with Granger causality testing.

  15. The Hospitable Meal Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Justesen, Lise; Overgaard, Svend Skafte

    2017-01-01

    This article presents an analytical model that aims to conceptualize how meal experiences are framed when taking into account a dynamic understanding of hospitality: the meal model is named The Hospitable Meal Model. The idea behind The Hospitable Meal Model is to present a conceptual model...... that can serve as a frame for developing hospitable meal competencies among professionals working within the area of institutional foodservices as well as a conceptual model for analysing meal experiences. The Hospitable Meal Model transcends and transforms existing meal models by presenting a more open......-ended approach towards meal experiences. The underlying purpose of The Hospitable Meal Model is to provide the basis for creating value for the individuals involved in institutional meal services. The Hospitable Meal Model was developed on the basis of an empirical study on hospital meal experiences explored...

  16. Applied stochastic modelling

    CERN Document Server

    Morgan, Byron JT; Tanner, Martin Abba; Carlin, Bradley P

    2008-01-01

    Introduction and Examples Introduction Examples of data sets Basic Model Fitting Introduction Maximum-likelihood estimation for a geometric model Maximum-likelihood for the beta-geometric model Modelling polyspermy Which model? What is a model for? Mechanistic models Function Optimisation Introduction MATLAB: graphs and finite differences Deterministic search methods Stochastic search methods Accuracy and a hybrid approach Basic Likelihood ToolsIntroduction Estimating standard errors and correlations Looking at surfaces: profile log-likelihoods Confidence regions from profiles Hypothesis testing in model selectionScore and Wald tests Classical goodness of fit Model selection biasGeneral Principles Introduction Parameterisation Parameter redundancy Boundary estimates Regression and influence The EM algorithm Alternative methods of model fitting Non-regular problemsSimulation Techniques Introduction Simulating random variables Integral estimation Verification Monte Carlo inference Estimating sampling distributi...

  17. Calibrated Properties Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahlers, C.F.; Liu, H.H.

    2001-01-01

    The purpose of this Analysis/Model Report (AMR) is to document the Calibrated Properties Model that provides calibrated parameter sets for unsaturated zone (UZ) flow and transport process models for the Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project (YMP). This work was performed in accordance with the AMR Development Plan for U0035 Calibrated Properties Model REV00 (CRWMS M and O 1999c). These calibrated property sets include matrix and fracture parameters for the UZ Flow and Transport Model (UZ Model), drift seepage models, drift-scale and mountain-scale coupled-processes models, and Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) models as well as Performance Assessment (PA) and other participating national laboratories and government agencies. These process models provide the necessary framework to test conceptual hypotheses of flow and transport at different scales and predict flow and transport behavior under a variety of climatic and thermal-loading conditions

  18. Calibrated Properties Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahlers, C.; Liu, H.

    2000-01-01

    The purpose of this Analysis/Model Report (AMR) is to document the Calibrated Properties Model that provides calibrated parameter sets for unsaturated zone (UZ) flow and transport process models for the Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project (YMP). This work was performed in accordance with the ''AMR Development Plan for U0035 Calibrated Properties Model REV00. These calibrated property sets include matrix and fracture parameters for the UZ Flow and Transport Model (UZ Model), drift seepage models, drift-scale and mountain-scale coupled-processes models, and Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) models as well as Performance Assessment (PA) and other participating national laboratories and government agencies. These process models provide the necessary framework to test conceptual hypotheses of flow and transport at different scales and predict flow and transport behavior under a variety of climatic and thermal-loading conditions

  19. Business Models and Business Model Innovation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Foss, Nicolai J.; Saebi, Tina

    2018-01-01

    While research on business models and business model innovation continue to exhibit growth, the field is still, even after more than two decades of research, characterized by a striking lack of cumulative theorizing and an opportunistic borrowing of more or less related ideas from neighbouring...

  20. Wake modelling combining mesoscale and microscale models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Badger, Jake; Volker, Patrick; Prospathospoulos, J.

    2013-01-01

    In this paper the basis for introducing thrust information from microscale wake models into mesocale model wake parameterizations will be described. A classification system for the different types of mesoscale wake parameterizations is suggested and outlined. Four different mesoscale wake paramet...

  1. Introduction to Adjoint Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Errico, Ronald M.

    2015-01-01

    In this lecture, some fundamentals of adjoint models will be described. This includes a basic derivation of tangent linear and corresponding adjoint models from a parent nonlinear model, the interpretation of adjoint-derived sensitivity fields, a description of methods of automatic differentiation, and the use of adjoint models to solve various optimization problems, including singular vectors. Concluding remarks will attempt to correct common misconceptions about adjoint models and their utilization.

  2. Business Model Visualization

    OpenAIRE

    Zagorsek, Branislav

    2013-01-01

    Business model describes the company’s most important activities, proposed value, and the compensation for the value. Business model visualization enables to simply and systematically capture and describe the most important components of the business model while the standardization of the concept allows the comparison between companies. There are several possibilities how to visualize the model. The aim of this paper is to describe the options for business model visualization and business mod...

  3. Latent classification models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Langseth, Helge; Nielsen, Thomas Dyhre

    2005-01-01

    parametric family ofdistributions.  In this paper we propose a new set of models forclassification in continuous domains, termed latent classificationmodels. The latent classification model can roughly be seen ascombining the \\NB model with a mixture of factor analyzers,thereby relaxing the assumptions...... classification model, and wedemonstrate empirically that the accuracy of the proposed model issignificantly higher than the accuracy of other probabilisticclassifiers....

  4. Geochemistry Model Validation Report: External Accumulation Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zarrabi, K.

    2001-01-01

    The purpose of this Analysis and Modeling Report (AMR) is to validate the External Accumulation Model that predicts accumulation of fissile materials in fractures and lithophysae in the rock beneath a degrading waste package (WP) in the potential monitored geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. (Lithophysae are voids in the rock having concentric shells of finely crystalline alkali feldspar, quartz, and other materials that were formed due to entrapped gas that later escaped, DOE 1998, p. A-25.) The intended use of this model is to estimate the quantities of external accumulation of fissile material for use in external criticality risk assessments for different types of degrading WPs: U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Spent Nuclear Fuel (SNF) codisposed with High Level Waste (HLW) glass, commercial SNF, and Immobilized Plutonium Ceramic (Pu-ceramic) codisposed with HLW glass. The scope of the model validation is to (1) describe the model and the parameters used to develop the model, (2) provide rationale for selection of the parameters by comparisons with measured values, and (3) demonstrate that the parameters chosen are the most conservative selection for external criticality risk calculations. To demonstrate the applicability of the model, a Pu-ceramic WP is used as an example. The model begins with a source term from separately documented EQ6 calculations; where the source term is defined as the composition versus time of the water flowing out of a breached waste package (WP). Next, PHREEQC, is used to simulate the transport and interaction of the source term with the resident water and fractured tuff below the repository. In these simulations the primary mechanism for accumulation is mixing of the high pH, actinide-laden source term with resident water; thus lowering the pH values sufficiently for fissile minerals to become insoluble and precipitate. In the final section of the model, the outputs from PHREEQC, are processed to produce mass of accumulation

  5. Pavement Aging Model by Response Surface Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manzano-Ramírez A.

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available In this work, surface course aging was modeled by Response Surface Methodology (RSM. The Marshall specimens were placed in a conventional oven for time and temperature conditions established on the basis of the environment factors of the region where the surface course is constructed by AC-20 from the Ing. Antonio M. Amor refinery. Volatilized material (VM, load resistance increment (ΔL and flow resistance increment (ΔF models were developed by the RSM. Cylindrical specimens with real aging were extracted from the surface course pilot to evaluate the error of the models. The VM model was adequate, in contrast (ΔL and (ΔF models were almost adequate with an error of 20 %, that was associated with the other environmental factors, which were not considered at the beginning of the research.

  6. Modelling of an homogeneous equilibrium mixture model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bernard-Champmartin, A.; Poujade, O.; Mathiaud, J.; Mathiaud, J.; Ghidaglia, J.M.

    2014-01-01

    We present here a model for two phase flows which is simpler than the 6-equations models (with two densities, two velocities, two temperatures) but more accurate than the standard mixture models with 4 equations (with two densities, one velocity and one temperature). We are interested in the case when the two-phases have been interacting long enough for the drag force to be small but still not negligible. The so-called Homogeneous Equilibrium Mixture Model (HEM) that we present is dealing with both mixture and relative quantities, allowing in particular to follow both a mixture velocity and a relative velocity. This relative velocity is not tracked by a conservation law but by a closure law (drift relation), whose expression is related to the drag force terms of the two-phase flow. After the derivation of the model, a stability analysis and numerical experiments are presented. (authors)

  7. Energy perspectives of the France by 2020-2050. Energy scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2007-09-01

    The aim of the working group was to realize quantitative approaches of the french energy system by 2020-2050 supporting the reflexions of the Energy Commission. The presented scenario are not prevision of the future. They just allow, in function of the hypothesis and the models used, to establish an approach of the consequences in term of the final energy demand. Two simulation tools were used and described in the chapter 3: Medpro-Poles and Markal-Times. The scenario are analyzed in the chapters 4 and 5. Results allow to see how the proposed measures are sufficient to reach in France the main objectives proposed by the european union. (A.L.B.)

  8. A hydrogen economy: opportunities and challenges

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tseng, P.; Lee, J.; Friley, P.

    2005-01-01

    A hydrogen economy, the long-term goal of many nations, can potentially confer energy security, along with environmental and economic benefits. However, the transition from a conventional petroleum-based energy system to a hydrogen economy involves many uncertainties, such as the development of efficient fuel-cell technologies, problems in hydrogen production and its distribution infrastructure, and the response of petroleum markets. This study uses the US MARKAL model to simulate the impacts of hydrogen technologies on the US energy system and to identify potential impediments to a successful transition. Preliminary findings highlight possible market barriers facing the hydrogen economy, as well as opportunities in new R and D and product markets for bioproducts. Quantitative analysis also offers insights on policy options for promoting hydrogen technologies. (author)

  9. Future perspective of nuclear energy utilization and expected role of HTGR. JAERI's energy systems analysis research

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sato, Osamu

    1996-01-01

    Studies have been made in JAERI in order to assess the possibility of using nuclear energy symbiotically with fossil and biomass fuels, and to evaluate its implications for the environment. The application system of high temperature nuclear heat has been designed for this purpose with various technology options. The core of the system is a set of technologies for hydrogen production and its application to produce clean and convenient fuels from fossil or biomass sources. The results of analytical studies using the MARKAL model have indicated sufficient possibilities of combining nuclear energy effectively with fossil or biomass fuels via hydrogen produced by high temperature nuclear heat. In addition to providing clean and convenient liquid fuels on a large scale, the combined system will contribute to the substantial reduction of long-term CO 2 emissions. The relatively high cost of this system will be well justified when CO 2 emission penalties are taken into account. (J.P.N.)

  10. Energy perspectives of the France by 2020-2050. Energy scenario; Perspectives energetiques de la France a l'horizon 2020-2050. Scenarios energetiques

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2007-09-15

    The aim of the working group was to realize quantitative approaches of the french energy system by 2020-2050 supporting the reflexions of the Energy Commission. The presented scenario are not prevision of the future. They just allow, in function of the hypothesis and the models used, to establish an approach of the consequences in term of the final energy demand. Two simulation tools were used and described in the chapter 3: Medpro-Poles and Markal-Times. The scenario are analyzed in the chapters 4 and 5. Results allow to see how the proposed measures are sufficient to reach in France the main objectives proposed by the european union. (A.L.B.)

  11. Analysis of technological alternatives and energy to the Metroplus system under an integrated assessment, Energy, Environment, Economy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alzate, Juan M; Builes, Luis A; Rave, Claudia C; Smith, Ricardo A; Cadena, Angela I

    2007-01-01

    Using a multi-period optimization model based on lineal programming, which integrates energy, economy and environment dimensions (MARKAL - Standard version), some economic and environmental impacts due to five different technological choices for the omnibus fleet of the Rapid Bus Transit (Metroplus System) which will operate at the metropolitan area of the Aburra Valley (Medellin - Colombia) were estimated. The technological choices compared are: (1) a fleet powered by compressed natural gas, (2) powered by diesel, (3) powered by Euro diesel III imported from the Mexican Gulf, (4) powered by a mixed fleet 50% compressed natural gas and 50% diesel, and (5) a fleet powered by hybrid diesel vehicles. Results out stand the economic and environmental benefits associated to the use of an omnibus fleet powered by compressed natural gas

  12. Oil substitution and energy saving - A research and development strategy of the International Energy Agency /IEA/

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rath-Nagel, S.

    1981-03-01

    Systems analyses were carried out by the International Energy Agency for the participating 15 countries in order to work out strategies and scenarios for lessening the dependence on imported oil and for developing new energy technologies. MARKAL model computations show the technology and energy mixes necessary for achieving a reduction of oil imports by two thirds over the next 40 years. The scenario 'high social security' examines the projected rise in energy consumption, the development of oil substitutes, the increase in alternative heating sources, the development of markets for liquid energy products, the demand for gas, and the relative usage of various energy generation methods. The recommended strategy involves as the most important points an increase in coal consumption, greater nuclear energy reliance and development of alternative technologies.

  13. Approaching the Kyoto targets: a case study for Basilicata region (Italy)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Salvia, M.; Cuomo, V. [Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Tito Scalo (Italy). Istituto di Metodologie per l' Analisi Ambientale; Pietrapertosa, F. [Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Tito Scalo (Italy). Istituto di Metodologie per l' Analisi Ambientale; Universita degli Studi della Basilicata, Potenza (Italy). Dip. di Ingegneria e Fisica dell' Ambiente; Cosmi, C. [Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Tito Scalo (Italy). Istituto di Metodologie per l' Analisi Ambientale; Istituto Nazionale di Fisica della Materia, Napoli (Italy); Macchiato, M. [Universita Federico II, Napoli (Italy). Dip. di Scienze Fisiche

    2004-02-01

    Approaching the national Kyoto Protocol (KP) targets involves a re-definition of the actual configuration of local energy systems. This study deals with a local scale application of the IEA-MARKAL models generator, in which the anthropogenic system of Basilicata Region (Southern Italy) is investigated to support the definition of coherent long- term strategies and sound climate protection policies. A scenario by scenario analysis points out the behaviour of the optimal mix of fuels and technologies in the presence of carbon dioxide emissions constraints. Trade off curves and reduced costs analyses outline the most effective actions for contributing to the national KP targets, with particular emphasis on the interventions in Civil (Residential, Commercial and Services) and waste management sectors. (author)

  14. OECD/IEA/ETSAP energy-environment systems analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yasukawa, Shigeru; Sato, Osamu; Tadokoro, Yoshihiro; Nagano, Takao; Shiraki, Hajimu; Shimoyamada, Yoshinori

    1988-12-01

    Fuel supply and demand mix as well as energy technology configuration are analyzed by the MARKAL model for the future Japanese energy system, when reduction of environmental emissions is taken into consideration. The Reference Energy System (RES) covers whole sectors, i.e., fuel conversion and energy transformation, industry, residential and commercial, and transportation sectors. Environmental emissions considered here are SOx, NOx, CO 2 , and radio activity, and the time horizon is an interval from 1985 to 2030. Both SOx and NOx emission can be reduced much by present art of reduction measures. From the view points of cost effectiveness, abatement technologies including fluegas treatments take the highest priority and fuel switching and technology substitution follow in this order. For CO 2 reduction, both nuclear and renewable energy technologies are essential among them. (author)

  15. Model Validation Status Review

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    E.L. Hardin

    2001-01-01

    The primary objective for the Model Validation Status Review was to perform a one-time evaluation of model validation associated with the analysis/model reports (AMRs) containing model input to total-system performance assessment (TSPA) for the Yucca Mountain site recommendation (SR). This review was performed in response to Corrective Action Request BSC-01-C-01 (Clark 2001, Krisha 2001) pursuant to Quality Assurance review findings of an adverse trend in model validation deficiency. The review findings in this report provide the following information which defines the extent of model validation deficiency and the corrective action needed: (1) AMRs that contain or support models are identified, and conversely, for each model the supporting documentation is identified. (2) The use for each model is determined based on whether the output is used directly for TSPA-SR, or for screening (exclusion) of features, events, and processes (FEPs), and the nature of the model output. (3) Two approaches are used to evaluate the extent to which the validation for each model is compliant with AP-3.10Q (Analyses and Models). The approaches differ in regard to whether model validation is achieved within individual AMRs as originally intended, or whether model validation could be readily achieved by incorporating information from other sources. (4) Recommendations are presented for changes to the AMRs, and additional model development activities or data collection, that will remedy model validation review findings, in support of licensing activities. The Model Validation Status Review emphasized those AMRs that support TSPA-SR (CRWMS M and O 2000bl and 2000bm). A series of workshops and teleconferences was held to discuss and integrate the review findings. The review encompassed 125 AMRs (Table 1) plus certain other supporting documents and data needed to assess model validity. The AMRs were grouped in 21 model areas representing the modeling of processes affecting the natural and

  16. Modeling for Battery Prognostics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kulkarni, Chetan S.; Goebel, Kai; Khasin, Michael; Hogge, Edward; Quach, Patrick

    2017-01-01

    For any battery-powered vehicles (be it unmanned aerial vehicles, small passenger aircraft, or assets in exoplanetary operations) to operate at maximum efficiency and reliability, it is critical to monitor battery health as well performance and to predict end of discharge (EOD) and end of useful life (EOL). To fulfil these needs, it is important to capture the battery's inherent characteristics as well as operational knowledge in the form of models that can be used by monitoring, diagnostic, and prognostic algorithms. Several battery modeling methodologies have been developed in last few years as the understanding of underlying electrochemical mechanics has been advancing. The models can generally be classified as empirical models, electrochemical engineering models, multi-physics models, and molecular/atomist. Empirical models are based on fitting certain functions to past experimental data, without making use of any physicochemical principles. Electrical circuit equivalent models are an example of such empirical models. Electrochemical engineering models are typically continuum models that include electrochemical kinetics and transport phenomena. Each model has its advantages and disadvantages. The former type of model has the advantage of being computationally efficient, but has limited accuracy and robustness, due to the approximations used in developed model, and as a result of such approximations, cannot represent aging well. The latter type of model has the advantage of being very accurate, but is often computationally inefficient, having to solve complex sets of partial differential equations, and thus not suited well for online prognostic applications. In addition both multi-physics and atomist models are computationally expensive hence are even less suited to online application An electrochemistry-based model of Li-ion batteries has been developed, that captures crucial electrochemical processes, captures effects of aging, is computationally efficient

  17. Product and Process Modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cameron, Ian T.; Gani, Rafiqul

    . These approaches are put into the context of life cycle modelling, where multiscale and multiform modelling is increasingly prevalent in the 21st century. The book commences with a discussion of modern product and process modelling theory and practice followed by a series of case studies drawn from a variety......This book covers the area of product and process modelling via a case study approach. It addresses a wide range of modelling applications with emphasis on modelling methodology and the subsequent in-depth analysis of mathematical models to gain insight via structural aspects of the models...... to biotechnology applications, food, polymer and human health application areas. The book highlights to important nature of modern product and process modelling in the decision making processes across the life cycle. As such it provides an important resource for students, researchers and industrial practitioners....

  18. Dimension of linear models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Høskuldsson, Agnar

    1996-01-01

    Determination of the proper dimension of a given linear model is one of the most important tasks in the applied modeling work. We consider here eight criteria that can be used to determine the dimension of the model, or equivalently, the number of components to use in the model. Four of these cri......Determination of the proper dimension of a given linear model is one of the most important tasks in the applied modeling work. We consider here eight criteria that can be used to determine the dimension of the model, or equivalently, the number of components to use in the model. Four...... the basic problems in determining the dimension of linear models. Then each of the eight measures are treated. The results are illustrated by examples....

  19. Model Validation Status Review

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    E.L. Hardin

    2001-11-28

    The primary objective for the Model Validation Status Review was to perform a one-time evaluation of model validation associated with the analysis/model reports (AMRs) containing model input to total-system performance assessment (TSPA) for the Yucca Mountain site recommendation (SR). This review was performed in response to Corrective Action Request BSC-01-C-01 (Clark 2001, Krisha 2001) pursuant to Quality Assurance review findings of an adverse trend in model validation deficiency. The review findings in this report provide the following information which defines the extent of model validation deficiency and the corrective action needed: (1) AMRs that contain or support models are identified, and conversely, for each model the supporting documentation is identified. (2) The use for each model is determined based on whether the output is used directly for TSPA-SR, or for screening (exclusion) of features, events, and processes (FEPs), and the nature of the model output. (3) Two approaches are used to evaluate the extent to which the validation for each model is compliant with AP-3.10Q (Analyses and Models). The approaches differ in regard to whether model validation is achieved within individual AMRs as originally intended, or whether model validation could be readily achieved by incorporating information from other sources. (4) Recommendations are presented for changes to the AMRs, and additional model development activities or data collection, that will remedy model validation review findings, in support of licensing activities. The Model Validation Status Review emphasized those AMRs that support TSPA-SR (CRWMS M&O 2000bl and 2000bm). A series of workshops and teleconferences was held to discuss and integrate the review findings. The review encompassed 125 AMRs (Table 1) plus certain other supporting documents and data needed to assess model validity. The AMRs were grouped in 21 model areas representing the modeling of processes affecting the natural and

  20. Modeling volatility using state space models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Timmer, J; Weigend, A S

    1997-08-01

    In time series problems, noise can be divided into two categories: dynamic noise which drives the process, and observational noise which is added in the measurement process, but does not influence future values of the system. In this framework, we show that empirical volatilities (the squared relative returns of prices) exhibit a significant amount of observational noise. To model and predict their time evolution adequately, we estimate state space models that explicitly include observational noise. We obtain relaxation times for shocks in the logarithm of volatility ranging from three weeks (for foreign exchange) to three to five months (for stock indices). In most cases, a two-dimensional hidden state is required to yield residuals that are consistent with white noise. We compare these results with ordinary autoregressive models (without a hidden state) and find that autoregressive models underestimate the relaxation times by about two orders of magnitude since they do not distinguish between observational and dynamic noise. This new interpretation of the dynamics of volatility in terms of relaxators in a state space model carries over to stochastic volatility models and to GARCH models, and is useful for several problems in finance, including risk management and the pricing of derivative securities. Data sets used: Olsen & Associates high frequency DEM/USD foreign exchange rates (8 years). Nikkei 225 index (40 years). Dow Jones Industrial Average (25 years).

  1. Near-death experiences, attacks by family members, and absence of health care in their home countries affect the quality of life of refugee women in Germany: a multi-region, cross-sectional, gender-sensitive study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jesuthasan, Jenny; Sönmez, Ekin; Abels, Ingar; Kurmeyer, Christine; Gutermann, Jana; Kimbel, Renate; Krüger, Antje; Niklewski, Guenter; Richter, Kneginja; Stangier, Ulrich; Wollny, Anja; Zier, Ulrike; Oertelt-Prigione, Sabine; Shouler-Ocak, Meryam

    2018-02-01

    The year 2016 has marked the highest number of displaced people worldwide on record. A large number of these refugees are women, yet little is known about their specific situation and the hurdles they have to face during their journey. Herein, we investigated whether sociodemographic characteristics and traumatic experiences in the home country and during the flight affected the quality of life of refugee women arriving in Germany in 2015-2016. Six hundred sixty-three women from six countries (Afghanistan, Syria, Iran, Iraq, Somalia, and Eritrea) living in shared reception facilities in five distinct German regions were interviewed by native speakers using a structured questionnaire. Sociodemographic data and information about reasons for fleeing, traumatic experiences, symptoms, quality of life, and expectations towards their future were elicited. All information was stored in a central database in Berlin. Descriptive analyses, correlations, and multivariate analyses were performed. The most frequent reasons cited for fleeing were war, terror, and threat to one's life or the life of a family member. Eighty-seven percent of women resorted to smugglers to make the journey to Europe, and this significantly correlated to residence in a war zone (odds ratio (OR) = 2.5, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.4-4.6, p = 0.003) and homelessness prior to fleeing (OR = 2.1, 95% CI = 1-4.3, p = 0.04). Overall the described quality of life by the women was moderate (overall mean = 3.23, range of 1-5) and slightly worse than that of European populations (overall mean = 3.68, p Refugee women experience multiple traumatic experiences before and/or during their journey, some of which are gender-specific. These experiences affect the quality of life in their current country of residence and might impact their integration. We encourage the early investigation of these traumatic experiences to rapidly identify women at higher risk and to improve health care for somatic and mental illness.

  2. Near-death experiences, attacks by family members, and absence of health care in their home countries affect the quality of life of refugee women in Germany: a multi-region, cross-sectional, gender-sensitive study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jesuthasan, J.; Sonmez, E.; Abels, I.; Kurmeyer, C.; Gutermann, J.; Kimbel, R.; Kruger, A.; Niklewski, G.; Richter, K.; Stangier, U.; Wollny, A.; Zier, U.; Oertelt-Prigione, S.; Shouler-Ocak, M.

    2018-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The year 2016 has marked the highest number of displaced people worldwide on record. A large number of these refugees are women, yet little is known about their specific situation and the hurdles they have to face during their journey. Herein, we investigated whether sociodemographic

  3. Determination of fine neutron flux distribution in multi-region reactor cell by applying spherical harmonics method; Odredjivanje fine rspodele fluksa u viseregionalnoj celiji reaktora primenom metode sfernih harmonika

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jockovic, M; Stefanovic, D; Barucija, M [Institut za nuklearne nauke Boris Kidric, Vinca, Beograd (Yugoslavia)

    1964-07-01

    Neutron distribution in space, direction of movement, energy and time is described by Boltzmann equation. This paper describes the adaptation of method for calculating the neutron flux distribution in P{sub 3} approximation and the computer code written for the ZUSE-Z-23 computer. Some results for a few typical reactor cells are included. The number of regions in the reactor cell treated by the code is limited only by the capacity of the computer.

  4. Detection of different categories of hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection in a multi-regional study comparing the clinical sensitivity of hepatitis B surface antigen and HBV-DNA testing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lelie, Nico; Bruhn, Roberta; Busch, Michael

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Twenty-two users of individual donation nucleic acid amplification technology (ID-NAT) in six geographical regions provided detailed hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection data in first-time, lapsed, and repeat donations and classified confirmed HBV-positive donors into different infection...... categories. These data were used to compare the clinical sensitivity of hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) and HBV-DNA testing. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: In total 10,981,776 donations from South Africa, Egypt, the Mediterranean, North and Central Europe, South East Asia, and Oceania were screened for HBV...

  5. Empirical Model Building Data, Models, and Reality

    CERN Document Server

    Thompson, James R

    2011-01-01

    Praise for the First Edition "This...novel and highly stimulating book, which emphasizes solving real problems...should be widely read. It will have a positive and lasting effect on the teaching of modeling and statistics in general." - Short Book Reviews This new edition features developments and real-world examples that showcase essential empirical modeling techniques Successful empirical model building is founded on the relationship between data and approximate representations of the real systems that generated that data. As a result, it is essential for researchers who construct these m

  6. Modeling Guru: Knowledge Base for NASA Modelers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seablom, M. S.; Wojcik, G. S.; van Aartsen, B. H.

    2009-05-01

    Modeling Guru is an on-line knowledge-sharing resource for anyone involved with or interested in NASA's scientific models or High End Computing (HEC) systems. Developed and maintained by the NASA's Software Integration and Visualization Office (SIVO) and the NASA Center for Computational Sciences (NCCS), Modeling Guru's combined forums and knowledge base for research and collaboration is becoming a repository for the accumulated expertise of NASA's scientific modeling and HEC communities. All NASA modelers and associates are encouraged to participate and provide knowledge about the models and systems so that other users may benefit from their experience. Modeling Guru is divided into a hierarchy of communities, each with its own set forums and knowledge base documents. Current modeling communities include those for space science, land and atmospheric dynamics, atmospheric chemistry, and oceanography. In addition, there are communities focused on NCCS systems, HEC tools and libraries, and programming and scripting languages. Anyone may view most of the content on Modeling Guru (available at http://modelingguru.nasa.gov/), but you must log in to post messages and subscribe to community postings. The site offers a full range of "Web 2.0" features, including discussion forums, "wiki" document generation, document uploading, RSS feeds, search tools, blogs, email notification, and "breadcrumb" links. A discussion (a.k.a. forum "thread") is used to post comments, solicit feedback, or ask questions. If marked as a question, SIVO will monitor the thread, and normally respond within a day. Discussions can include embedded images, tables, and formatting through the use of the Rich Text Editor. Also, the user can add "Tags" to their thread to facilitate later searches. The "knowledge base" is comprised of documents that are used to capture and share expertise with others. The default "wiki" document lets users edit within the browser so others can easily collaborate on the

  7. Models for Dynamic Applications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sales-Cruz, Mauricio; Morales Rodriguez, Ricardo; Heitzig, Martina

    2011-01-01

    This chapter covers aspects of the dynamic modelling and simulation of several complex operations that include a controlled blending tank, a direct methanol fuel cell that incorporates a multiscale model, a fluidised bed reactor, a standard chemical reactor and finally a polymerisation reactor...... be applied to formulate, analyse and solve these dynamic problems and how in the case of the fuel cell problem the model consists of coupledmeso and micro scale models. It is shown how data flows are handled between the models and how the solution is obtained within the modelling environment....

  8. Holographic twin Higgs model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geller, Michael; Telem, Ofri

    2015-05-15

    We present the first realization of a "twin Higgs" model as a holographic composite Higgs model. Uniquely among composite Higgs models, the Higgs potential is protected by a new standard model (SM) singlet elementary "mirror" sector at the sigma model scale f and not by the composite states at m_{KK}, naturally allowing for m_{KK} beyond the LHC reach. As a result, naturalness in our model cannot be constrained by the LHC, but may be probed by precision Higgs measurements at future lepton colliders, and by direct searches for Kaluza-Klein excitations at a 100 TeV collider.

  9. Models of light nuclei

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harvey, M.; Khanna, F.C.

    1975-01-01

    The general problem of what constitutes a physical model and what is known about the free nucleon-nucleon interaction are considered. A time independent formulation of the basic equations is chosen. Construction of the average field in which particles move in a general independent particle model is developed, concentrating on problems of defining the average spherical single particle field for any given nucleus, and methods for construction of effective residual interactions and other physical operators. Deformed shell models and both spherical and deformed harmonic oscillator models are discussed in detail, and connections between spherical and deformed shell models are analyzed. A section on cluster models is included. 11 tables, 21 figures

  10. Holographic Twin Higgs Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geller, Michael; Telem, Ofri

    2015-05-01

    We present the first realization of a "twin Higgs" model as a holographic composite Higgs model. Uniquely among composite Higgs models, the Higgs potential is protected by a new standard model (SM) singlet elementary "mirror" sector at the sigma model scale f and not by the composite states at mKK , naturally allowing for mKK beyond the LHC reach. As a result, naturalness in our model cannot be constrained by the LHC, but may be probed by precision Higgs measurements at future lepton colliders, and by direct searches for Kaluza-Klein excitations at a 100 TeV collider.

  11. Five models of capitalism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luiz Carlos Bresser-Pereira

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Besides analyzing capitalist societies historically and thinking of them in terms of phases or stages, we may compare different models or varieties of capitalism. In this paper I survey the literature on this subject, and distinguish the classification that has a production or business approach from those that use a mainly political criterion. I identify five forms of capitalism: among the rich countries, the liberal democratic or Anglo-Saxon model, the social or European model, and the endogenous social integration or Japanese model; among developing countries, I distinguish the Asian developmental model from the liberal-dependent model that characterizes most other developing countries, including Brazil.

  12. Wastewater treatment models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gernaey, Krist; Sin, Gürkan

    2011-01-01

    description of biological phosphorus removal, physicalchemical processes, hydraulics and settling tanks. For attached growth systems, biofilm models have progressed from analytical steady-state models to more complex 2D/3D dynamic numerical models. Plant-wide modeling is set to advance further the practice......The state-of-the-art level reached in modeling wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) is reported. For suspended growth systems, WWTP models have evolved from simple description of biological removal of organic carbon and nitrogen in aeration tanks (ASM1 in 1987) to more advanced levels including...

  13. Wastewater Treatment Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gernaey, Krist; Sin, Gürkan

    2008-01-01

    description of biological phosphorus removal, physical–chemical processes, hydraulics, and settling tanks. For attached growth systems, biofilm models have progressed from analytical steady-state models to more complex 2-D/3-D dynamic numerical models. Plant-wide modeling is set to advance further......The state-of-the-art level reached in modeling wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) is reported. For suspended growth systems, WWTP models have evolved from simple description of biological removal of organic carbon and nitrogen in aeration tanks (ASM1 in 1987) to more advanced levels including...

  14. Microsoft tabular modeling cookbook

    CERN Document Server

    Braak, Paul te

    2013-01-01

    This book follows a cookbook style with recipes explaining the steps for developing analytic data using Business Intelligence Semantic Models.This book is designed for developers who wish to develop powerful and dynamic models for users as well as those who are responsible for the administration of models in corporate environments. It is also targeted at analysts and users of Excel who wish to advance their knowledge of Excel through the development of tabular models or who wish to analyze data through tabular modeling techniques. We assume no prior knowledge of tabular modeling

  15. Biosphere Model Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    D.W. Wu; A.J. Smith

    2004-11-08

    The purpose of this report is to document the biosphere model, the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN), which describes radionuclide transport processes in the biosphere and associated human exposure that may arise as the result of radionuclide release from the geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. The biosphere model is one of the process models that support the Yucca Mountain Project (YMP) Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for the license application (LA), TSPA-LA. The ERMYN provides the capability of performing human radiation dose assessments. This report documents the biosphere model, which includes: (1) Describing the reference biosphere, human receptor, exposure scenarios, and primary radionuclides for each exposure scenario (Section 6.1); (2) Developing a biosphere conceptual model using site-specific features, events, and processes (FEPs) (Section 6.2), the reference biosphere (Section 6.1.1), the human receptor (Section 6.1.2), and approximations (Sections 6.3.1.4 and 6.3.2.4); (3) Building a mathematical model using the biosphere conceptual model (Section 6.3) and published biosphere models (Sections 6.4 and 6.5); (4) Summarizing input parameters for the mathematical model, including the uncertainty associated with input values (Section 6.6); (5) Identifying improvements in the ERMYN compared with the model used in previous biosphere modeling (Section 6.7); (6) Constructing an ERMYN implementation tool (model) based on the biosphere mathematical model using GoldSim stochastic simulation software (Sections 6.8 and 6.9); (7) Verifying the ERMYN by comparing output from the software with hand calculations to ensure that the GoldSim implementation is correct (Section 6.10); (8) Validating the ERMYN by corroborating it with published biosphere models; comparing conceptual models, mathematical models, and numerical results (Section 7).

  16. Biosphere Model Report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    D.W. Wu; A.J. Smith

    2004-01-01

    The purpose of this report is to document the biosphere model, the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN), which describes radionuclide transport processes in the biosphere and associated human exposure that may arise as the result of radionuclide release from the geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. The biosphere model is one of the process models that support the Yucca Mountain Project (YMP) Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for the license application (LA), TSPA-LA. The ERMYN provides the capability of performing human radiation dose assessments. This report documents the biosphere model, which includes: (1) Describing the reference biosphere, human receptor, exposure scenarios, and primary radionuclides for each exposure scenario (Section 6.1); (2) Developing a biosphere conceptual model using site-specific features, events, and processes (FEPs) (Section 6.2), the reference biosphere (Section 6.1.1), the human receptor (Section 6.1.2), and approximations (Sections 6.3.1.4 and 6.3.2.4); (3) Building a mathematical model using the biosphere conceptual model (Section 6.3) and published biosphere models (Sections 6.4 and 6.5); (4) Summarizing input parameters for the mathematical model, including the uncertainty associated with input values (Section 6.6); (5) Identifying improvements in the ERMYN compared with the model used in previous biosphere modeling (Section 6.7); (6) Constructing an ERMYN implementation tool (model) based on the biosphere mathematical model using GoldSim stochastic simulation software (Sections 6.8 and 6.9); (7) Verifying the ERMYN by comparing output from the software with hand calculations to ensure that the GoldSim implementation is correct (Section 6.10); (8) Validating the ERMYN by corroborating it with published biosphere models; comparing conceptual models, mathematical models, and numerical results (Section 7)

  17. Modelling of Innovation Diffusion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arkadiusz Kijek

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Since the publication of the Bass model in 1969, research on the modelling of the diffusion of innovation resulted in a vast body of scientific literature consisting of articles, books, and studies of real-world applications of this model. The main objective of the diffusion model is to describe a pattern of spread of innovation among potential adopters in terms of a mathematical function of time. This paper assesses the state-of-the-art in mathematical models of innovation diffusion and procedures for estimating their parameters. Moreover, theoretical issues related to the models presented are supplemented with empirical research. The purpose of the research is to explore the extent to which the diffusion of broadband Internet users in 29 OECD countries can be adequately described by three diffusion models, i.e. the Bass model, logistic model and dynamic model. The results of this research are ambiguous and do not indicate which model best describes the diffusion pattern of broadband Internet users but in terms of the results presented, in most cases the dynamic model is inappropriate for describing the diffusion pattern. Issues related to the further development of innovation diffusion models are discussed and some recommendations are given. (original abstract

  18. Nonlinear Modeling by Assembling Piecewise Linear Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yao, Weigang; Liou, Meng-Sing

    2013-01-01

    To preserve nonlinearity of a full order system over a parameters range of interest, we propose a simple modeling approach by assembling a set of piecewise local solutions, including the first-order Taylor series terms expanded about some sampling states. The work by Rewienski and White inspired our use of piecewise linear local solutions. The assembly of these local approximations is accomplished by assigning nonlinear weights, through radial basis functions in this study. The efficacy of the proposed procedure is validated for a two-dimensional airfoil moving at different Mach numbers and pitching motions, under which the flow exhibits prominent nonlinear behaviors. All results confirm that our nonlinear model is accurate and stable for predicting not only aerodynamic forces but also detailed flowfields. Moreover, the model is robustness-accurate for inputs considerably different from the base trajectory in form and magnitude. This modeling preserves nonlinearity of the problems considered in a rather simple and accurate manner.

  19. Integrated Medical Model – Chest Injury Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Exploration Medical Capability (ExMC) Element of NASA's Human Research Program (HRP) developed the Integrated Medical Model (IMM) to forecast the resources...

  20. Traffic & safety statewide model and GIS modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-07-01

    Several steps have been taken over the past two years to advance the Utah Department of Transportation (UDOT) safety initiative. Previous research projects began the development of a hierarchical Bayesian model to analyze crashes on Utah roadways. De...

  1. OPEC model : adjustment or new model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ayoub, A.

    1994-01-01

    Since the early eighties, the international oil industry went through major changes : new financial markets, reintegration, opening of the upstream, liberalization of investments, privatization. This article provides answers to two major questions : what are the reasons for these changes ? ; do these changes announce the replacement of OPEC model by a new model in which state intervention is weaker and national companies more autonomous. This would imply a profound change of political and institutional systems of oil producing countries. (Author)

  2. Solid Waste Projection Model: Model user's guide

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stiles, D.L.; Crow, V.L.

    1990-08-01

    The Solid Waste Projection Model (SWPM) system is an analytical tool developed by Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) for Westinghouse Hanford company (WHC) specifically to address solid waste management issues at the Hanford Central Waste Complex (HCWC). This document, one of six documents supporting the SWPM system, contains a description of the system and instructions for preparing to use SWPM and operating Version 1 of the model. 4 figs., 1 tab

  3. Some scenarios of CO2 emission from the energy system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liik, O.; Landsberg, M.

    1996-01-01

    After Estonia regained its independence, planning of energy policy became topical. Since 1989, several expert groups have worked on the urgent problems and developments of Estonia's power engineering. Comprehensive energy system planning by mathematical modeling was accomplished in 1994. Then Tallinn Technical University acquired the MARKAL model from the Swedish National Board for Industrial and Technical Development (NUTEK). The influence of air pollution constraints on energy system development was first investigated in 1995. At the end of 1995, under the U.S. Country Studies Program, a detailed analysis of future CO 2 emissions and their reduction options began. During 1990-1993, energy demand lowered due to economic decline and sharp rise in the fuel and energy prices as well as a decrease in electricity exports, has resulting in 50% reduction of CO 2 emissions. For the same reasons, Estonia has been able to meet the requirements set in the agreements on SO 2 and NO x emissions with no special measures or costs. To meet the rigid ing SO 2 restrictions and growing energy consumption in the future, Estonia must invest in abatement and in new clean and efficient oil-shale combustion technology. Along with the old oil-shale plants closing and electricity consumption growing, other fuels will be used. The increase in energy demand then should not be fast due to constantly rising prices and efficient energy use. Measures to reduce SO 2 , and NO x emissions will also reduce CO 2 . In MARKAL runs the 1990 level of CO 2 emissions will be exceeded only along with high demand growth and absence of emissions control. Restricted availability of imported fuels and nuclear power or enabling electricity import can change the results significantly. The results discussed here can also change because the data base is being improved (such as detailed description of energy networks, description of demand-side technologies, accounting of energy conservation measures, addition of

  4. Role of natural gas in meeting an electric sector emissions reduction strategy and effects on greenhouse gas emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lenox, Carol; Kaplan, P. Ozge

    2016-01-01

    With advances in natural gas extraction technologies, there is an increase in the availability of domestic natural gas, and natural gas is gaining a larger share of use as a fuel in electricity production. At the power plant, natural gas is a cleaner burning fuel than coal, but uncertainties exist in the amount of methane leakage occurring upstream in the extraction and production of natural gas. At higher leakage levels, the additional methane emissions could offset the carbon dioxide emissions reduction benefit of switching from coal to natural gas. This analysis uses the MARKAL linear optimization model to compare the carbon emissions profiles and system-wide global warming potential of the U.S. energy system over a series of model runs in which the power sector is required to meet a specific carbon dioxide reduction target across a number of scenarios in which the availability of natural gas changes. Scenarios are run with carbon dioxide emissions and a range of upstream methane emission leakage rates from natural gas production along with upstream methane and carbon dioxide emissions associated with production of coal and oil. While the system carbon dioxide emissions are reduced in most scenarios, total carbon dioxide equivalent emissions show an increase in scenarios in which natural gas prices remain low and, simultaneously, methane emissions from natural gas production are higher. - Highlights: • MARKAL analysis of energy system GHG emissions reduction scenarios. • High methane leakage can eliminate the benefit that natural gas brings over coal. • A robust GHG reduction strategy takes into account upstream emissions for all fuels.

  5. Local authorities in the context of energy and climate policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Comodi, Gabriele; Cioccolanti, Luca; Polonara, Fabio; Brandoni, Caterina

    2012-01-01

    Several measures to boost the energy system towards a low-carbon future can be planned and implemented by local authorities, such as energy-saving initiatives in public buildings and lighting, information campaigns, and renewable energy pilot projects. This work analyzes the public administration's role in energy and climate policies by assessing carbon-lowering measures for properties and services managed directly by local governments in central Italy. Both short- and long-term schemes were considered in the analysis of local authority energy strategies. The MARKAL-TIMES energy model was applied to long-term energy planning to assess the effect of low-carbon initiatives on public-sector energy consumption up to 2030. Two energy scenarios were built, i.e. a Business As Usual (BAU) scenario based on current or soon-to-be-adopted national policies, and an Exemplary Public Scenario (EPS) including some further virtuous local policies suggested by local authorities. Our results show that a 20% primary energy reduction can be achieved with respect to the baseline year by means of short-term energy policies (5-year time span), while a primary energy saving of about 30% can be reached with longer-term energy policies (25-year time span), even after taking the increase in energy demand into account. This work goes to show the part that local governments can play in energy policy and their contribution to the achievement of climate goals. - Highlights: ► Assessment of Local Administration (LA) role in energy and climate policy. ► Analysis of both short-term and long-term carbon lowering measures. ► Use of MARKAL-TIMES model generator for long-term energy analysis. ► 20% primary energy reduction can be reached with short-term energy policies. ► 30% primary energy reduction can be reached with longer-term energy policies.

  6. Impacts of CO2 emission constraints on technology selection and energy resources for power generation in Bangladesh

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alam Hossain Mondal, Md.; Mathur, Jyotirmay; Denich, Manfred

    2011-01-01

    This paper examines the impacts of CO 2 emission reduction target and carbon tax on future technologies selection and energy use in Bangladesh power sector during 2005-2035. The analyses are based on a long-term energy system model of Bangladesh using the MARKAL framework. The analysis shows that Bangladesh will not be able to meet the future energy demand without importing energy. However, alternative policies on CO 2 emission constraints reduce the burden of imported fuel, improve energy security and reduce environmental impacts. The results show that the introduction of the CO 2 emission reduction targets and carbon taxes directly affect the shift of technologies from high carbon content fossil-based to low carbon content fossil-based and clean renewable energy-based technologies compared to the base scenario. With the cumulative CO 2 emission reduction target of 10-20% and carbon tax of 2500 Taka/ton, the cumulative net energy imports during 2005-2035 would be reduced in the range of 39-65% and 37%, respectively, compared to the base scenario emission level. The total primary energy requirement would be reduced in the range of 4.5-22.3% in the CO 2 emission reduction targets and carbon tax 2500 Taka/ton scenarios and the primary energy supply system would be diversified compared to the base scenario. - Research highlights: → MARKAL model is used for the analysis in Bangladesh power sector. → The analysis shows that Bangladesh will not be able to meet the future electricity demand without importing fuel. → Alternative policies on CO 2 emission constraints reduce the burden of imported fuel, improve energy security and reduce environmental impacts.

  7. Emissions Modeling Clearinghouse

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The Emissions Modeling Clearinghouse (EMCH) supports and promotes emissions modeling activities both internal and external to the EPA. Through this site, the EPA...

  8. Radiobilogical cell survival models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zackrisson, B.

    1992-01-01

    A central issue in clinical radiobiological research is the prediction of responses to different radiation qualities. The choice of cell survival and dose-response model greatly influences the results. In this context the relationship between theory and model is emphasized. Generally, the interpretations of experimental data depend on the model. Cell survival models are systematized with respect to their relations to radiobiological theories of cell kill. The growing knowlegde of biological, physical, and chemical mechanisms is reflected in the formulation of new models. The present overview shows that recent modelling has been more oriented towards the stochastic fluctuations connected to radiation energy deposition. This implies that the traditional cell surivival models ought to be complemented by models of stochastic energy deposition processes and repair processes at the intracellular level. (orig.)

  9. The Cap Pele Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pruneau, Diane; Chouinard, Omer; Arsenault, Charline

    1998-01-01

    Reports on a model of environmental education that aims to encourage greater attachment to the bioregion of Arcadia. The model results from cooperation within a village community and addresses the environmental education of people of all ages. (DDR)

  10. World Magnetic Model 2010

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The World Magnetic Model is the standard model used by the U.S. Department of Defense, the U.K. Ministry of Defence, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)...

  11. World Magnetic Model 2015

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The World Magnetic Model is the standard model used by the U.S. Department of Defense, the U.K. Ministry of Defence, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)...

  12. CCF model comparison

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pulkkinen, U.

    2004-04-01

    The report describes a simple comparison of two CCF-models, the ECLM, and the Beta-model. The objective of the comparison is to identify differences in the results of the models by applying the models in some simple test data cases. The comparison focuses mainly on theoretical aspects of the above mentioned CCF-models. The properties of the model parameter estimates in the data cases is also discussed. The practical aspects in using and estimating CCFmodels in real PSA context (e.g. the data interpretation, properties of computer tools, the model documentation) are not discussed in the report. Similarly, the qualitative CCF-analyses needed in using the models are not discussed in the report. (au)

  13. Snow model analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-01-01

    This study developed a new snow model and a database which warehouses geometric, weather and traffic : data on New Jersey highways. The complexity of the model development lies in considering variable road : width, different spreading/plowing pattern...

  14. A costal dispersion model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rahm, L.; Nyberg, L.; Gidhagen, L.

    1990-01-01

    A dispersion model to be used off costal waters has been developed. The model has been applied to describe the migration of radionuclides in the Baltic sea. A summary of the results is presented here. (K.A.E)

  15. Consistent model driven architecture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niepostyn, Stanisław J.

    2015-09-01

    The goal of the MDA is to produce software systems from abstract models in a way where human interaction is restricted to a minimum. These abstract models are based on the UML language. However, the semantics of UML models is defined in a natural language. Subsequently the verification of consistency of these diagrams is needed in order to identify errors in requirements at the early stage of the development process. The verification of consistency is difficult due to a semi-formal nature of UML diagrams. We propose automatic verification of consistency of the series of UML diagrams originating from abstract models implemented with our consistency rules. This Consistent Model Driven Architecture approach enables us to generate automatically complete workflow applications from consistent and complete models developed from abstract models (e.g. Business Context Diagram). Therefore, our method can be used to check practicability (feasibility) of software architecture models.

  16. Laboratory of Biological Modeling

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Laboratory Consortium — The Laboratory of Biological Modeling is defined by both its methodologies and its areas of application. We use mathematical modeling in many forms and apply it to a...

  17. The ATLAS Analysis Model

    CERN Multimedia

    Amir Farbin

    The ATLAS Analysis Model is a continually developing vision of how to reconcile physics analysis requirements with the ATLAS offline software and computing model constraints. In the past year this vision has influenced the evolution of the ATLAS Event Data Model, the Athena software framework, and physics analysis tools. These developments, along with the October Analysis Model Workshop and the planning for CSC analyses have led to a rapid refinement of the ATLAS Analysis Model in the past few months. This article introduces some of the relevant issues and presents the current vision of the future ATLAS Analysis Model. Event Data Model The ATLAS Event Data Model (EDM) consists of several levels of details, each targeted for a specific set of tasks. For example the Event Summary Data (ESD) stores calorimeter cells and tracking system hits thereby permitting many calibration and alignment tasks, but will be only accessible at particular computing sites with potentially large latency. In contrast, the Analysis...

  18. Modeling Complex Time Limits

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oleg Svatos

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we analyze complexity of time limits we can find especially in regulated processes of public administration. First we review the most popular process modeling languages. There is defined an example scenario based on the current Czech legislature which is then captured in discussed process modeling languages. Analysis shows that the contemporary process modeling languages support capturing of the time limit only partially. This causes troubles to analysts and unnecessary complexity of the models. Upon unsatisfying results of the contemporary process modeling languages we analyze the complexity of the time limits in greater detail and outline lifecycles of a time limit using the multiple dynamic generalizations pattern. As an alternative to the popular process modeling languages there is presented PSD process modeling language, which supports the defined lifecycles of a time limit natively and therefore allows keeping the models simple and easy to understand.

  19. Modeling Philosophies and Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    All models begin with a framework and a set of assumptions and limitations that go along with that framework. In terms of fracing and RA, there are several places where models and parameters must be chosen to complete hazard identification.

  20. Bounding species distribution models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas J. STOHLGREN, Catherine S. JARNEVICH, Wayne E. ESAIAS,Jeffrey T. MORISETTE

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Species distribution models are increasing in popularity for mapping suitable habitat for species of management concern. Many investigators now recognize that extrapolations of these models with geographic information systems (GIS might be sensitive to the environmental bounds of the data used in their development, yet there is no recommended best practice for “clamping” model extrapolations. We relied on two commonly used modeling approaches: classification and regression tree (CART and maximum entropy (Maxent models, and we tested a simple alteration of the model extrapolations, bounding extrapolations to the maximum and minimum values of primary environmental predictors, to provide a more realistic map of suitable habitat of hybridized Africanized honey bees in the southwestern United States. Findings suggest that multiple models of bounding, and the most conservative bounding of species distribution models, like those presented here, should probably replace the unbounded or loosely bounded techniques currently used [Current Zoology 57 (5: 642–647, 2011].

  1. Bounding Species Distribution Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stohlgren, Thomas J.; Jarnevich, Cahterine S.; Morisette, Jeffrey T.; Esaias, Wayne E.

    2011-01-01

    Species distribution models are increasing in popularity for mapping suitable habitat for species of management concern. Many investigators now recognize that extrapolations of these models with geographic information systems (GIS) might be sensitive to the environmental bounds of the data used in their development, yet there is no recommended best practice for "clamping" model extrapolations. We relied on two commonly used modeling approaches: classification and regression tree (CART) and maximum entropy (Maxent) models, and we tested a simple alteration of the model extrapolations, bounding extrapolations to the maximum and minimum values of primary environmental predictors, to provide a more realistic map of suitable habitat of hybridized Africanized honey bees in the southwestern United States. Findings suggest that multiple models of bounding, and the most conservative bounding of species distribution models, like those presented here, should probably replace the unbounded or loosely bounded techniques currently used [Current Zoology 57 (5): 642-647, 2011].

  2. Modelling of wastewater systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bechmann, Henrik

    to analyze and quantify the effect of the Aeration Tank Settling (ATS) operating mode, which is used during rain events. Furthermore, the model is used to propose a control algorithm for the phase lengths during ATS operation. The models are mainly formulated as state space model in continuous time......In this thesis, models of pollution fluxes in the inlet to 2 Danish wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) as well as of suspended solids (SS) concentrations in the aeration tanks of an alternating WWTP and in the effluent from the aeration tanks are developed. The latter model is furthermore used...... at modelling the fluxes in terms of the multiple correlation coefficient R2. The model of the SS concentrations in the aeration tanks of an alternating WWTP as well as in the effluent from the aeration tanks is a mass balance model based on measurements of SS in one aeration tank and in the common outlet...

  3. Graphical Models with R

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Højsgaard, Søren; Edwards, David; Lauritzen, Steffen

    Graphical models in their modern form have been around since the late 1970s and appear today in many areas of the sciences. Along with the ongoing developments of graphical models, a number of different graphical modeling software programs have been written over the years. In recent years many...... of these software developments have taken place within the R community, either in the form of new packages or by providing an R ingerface to existing software. This book attempts to give the reader a gentle introduction to graphical modeling using R and the main features of some of these packages. In addition......, the book provides examples of how more advanced aspects of graphical modeling can be represented and handled within R. Topics covered in the seven chapters include graphical models for contingency tables, Gaussian and mixed graphical models, Bayesian networks and modeling high dimensional data...

  4. Modeling EERE deployment programs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cort, K. A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Hostick, D. J. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Belzer, D. B. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Livingston, O. V. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2007-11-01

    The purpose of the project was to identify and characterize the modeling of deployment programs within the EERE Technology Development (TD) programs, address possible improvements to the modeling process, and note gaps in knowledge for future research.

  5. Modeling DNA Replication.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennett, Joan

    1998-01-01

    Recommends the use of a model of DNA made out of Velcro to help students visualize the steps of DNA replication. Includes a materials list, construction directions, and details of the demonstration using the model parts. (DDR)

  6. Modelling arithmetic operations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shabanov-kushnarenk, Yu P

    1981-01-01

    The possibility of modelling finite alphabetic operators using formal intelligence theory, is explored, with the setting up of models of a 3-digit adder and a multidigit subtractor, as examples. 2 references.

  7. Hierarchical Bass model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tashiro, Tohru

    2014-01-01

    We propose a new model about diffusion of a product which includes a memory of how many adopters or advertisements a non-adopter met, where (non-)adopters mean people (not) possessing the product. This effect is lacking in the Bass model. As an application, we utilize the model to fit the iPod sales data, and so the better agreement is obtained than the Bass model

  8. TENCompetence Domain Model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    2006-01-01

    This is the version 1.1 of the TENCompetence Domain Model (version 1.0 released at 19-6-2006; version 1.1 at 9-11-2008). It contains several files: a) a pdf with the model description, b) three jpg files with class models (also in the pdf), c) a MagicDraw zip file with the model itself, d) a release

  9. Optimization modeling with spreadsheets

    CERN Document Server

    Baker, Kenneth R

    2015-01-01

    An accessible introduction to optimization analysis using spreadsheets Updated and revised, Optimization Modeling with Spreadsheets, Third Edition emphasizes model building skills in optimization analysis. By emphasizing both spreadsheet modeling and optimization tools in the freely available Microsoft® Office Excel® Solver, the book illustrates how to find solutions to real-world optimization problems without needing additional specialized software. The Third Edition includes many practical applications of optimization models as well as a systematic framework that il

  10. Model Checking Feature Interactions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Le Guilly, Thibaut; Olsen, Petur; Pedersen, Thomas

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents an offline approach to analyzing feature interactions in embedded systems. The approach consists of a systematic process to gather the necessary information about system components and their models. The model is first specified in terms of predicates, before being refined to t...... to timed automata. The consistency of the model is verified at different development stages, and the correct linkage between the predicates and their semantic model is checked. The approach is illustrated on a use case from home automation....

  11. Physical modeling of rock

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cheney, J.A.

    1981-01-01

    The problems of statisfying similarity between a physical model and the prototype in rock wherein fissures and cracks place a role in physical behavior is explored. The need for models of large physical dimensions is explained but also testing of models of the same prototype over a wide range of scales is needed to ascertain the influence of lack of similitude of particular parameters between prototype and model. A large capacity centrifuge would be useful in that respect

  12. On Modeling Risk Shocks

    OpenAIRE

    Dorofeenko, Victor; Lee, Gabriel; Salyer, Kevin; Strobel, Johannes

    2016-01-01

    Within the context of a financial accelerator model, we model time-varying uncertainty (i.e. risk shocks) through the use of a mixture Normal model with time variation in the weights applied to the underlying distributions characterizing entrepreneur productivity. Specifically, we model capital producers (i.e. the entrepreneurs) as either low-risk (relatively small second moment for productivity) and high-risk (relatively large second moment for productivity) and the fraction of both types is...

  13. Hierarchical Bass model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tashiro, Tohru

    2014-03-01

    We propose a new model about diffusion of a product which includes a memory of how many adopters or advertisements a non-adopter met, where (non-)adopters mean people (not) possessing the product. This effect is lacking in the Bass model. As an application, we utilize the model to fit the iPod sales data, and so the better agreement is obtained than the Bass model.

  14. Modelling of Corrosion Cracks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thoft-Christensen, Palle

    Modelling of corrosion cracking of reinforced concrete structures is complicated as a great number of uncertain factors are involved. To get a reliable modelling a physical and mechanical understanding of the process behind corrosion in needed.......Modelling of corrosion cracking of reinforced concrete structures is complicated as a great number of uncertain factors are involved. To get a reliable modelling a physical and mechanical understanding of the process behind corrosion in needed....

  15. GARCH Modelling of Cryptocurrencies

    OpenAIRE

    Jeffrey Chu; Stephen Chan; Saralees Nadarajah; Joerg Osterrieder

    2017-01-01

    With the exception of Bitcoin, there appears to be little or no literature on GARCH modelling of cryptocurrencies. This paper provides the first GARCH modelling of the seven most popular cryptocurrencies. Twelve GARCH models are fitted to each cryptocurrency, and their fits are assessed in terms of five criteria. Conclusions are drawn on the best fitting models, forecasts and acceptability of value at risk estimates.

  16. GARCH Modelling of Cryptocurrencies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeffrey Chu

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available With the exception of Bitcoin, there appears to be little or no literature on GARCH modelling of cryptocurrencies. This paper provides the first GARCH modelling of the seven most popular cryptocurrencies. Twelve GARCH models are fitted to each cryptocurrency, and their fits are assessed in terms of five criteria. Conclusions are drawn on the best fitting models, forecasts and acceptability of value at risk estimates.

  17. Artificial neural network modelling

    CERN Document Server

    Samarasinghe, Sandhya

    2016-01-01

    This book covers theoretical aspects as well as recent innovative applications of Artificial Neural networks (ANNs) in natural, environmental, biological, social, industrial and automated systems. It presents recent results of ANNs in modelling small, large and complex systems under three categories, namely, 1) Networks, Structure Optimisation, Robustness and Stochasticity 2) Advances in Modelling Biological and Environmental Systems and 3) Advances in Modelling Social and Economic Systems. The book aims at serving undergraduates, postgraduates and researchers in ANN computational modelling. .

  18. Differential models in ecology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barco Gomez, Carlos; Barco Gomez, German

    2002-01-01

    The models mathematical writings with differential equations are used to describe the populational behavior through the time of the animal species. These models can be lineal or no lineal. The differential models for unique specie include the exponential pattern of Malthus and the logistical pattern of Verlhust. The lineal differential models to describe the interaction between two species include the competition relationships, predation and symbiosis

  19. Competing through business models

    OpenAIRE

    Casadesus-Masanell, Ramon; Ricart, Joan E.

    2007-01-01

    In this article a business model is defined as the firm choices on policies, assets and governance structure of those policies and assets, together with their consequences, be them flexible or rigid. We also provide a way to represent such business models to highlight the dynamic loops and to facilitate understanding interaction with other business models. Furthermore, we develop some tests to evaluate the goodness of a business model both in isolation as well as in interaction with other bus...

  20. Photovoltaic sources modeling

    CERN Document Server

    Petrone, Giovanni; Spagnuolo, Giovanni

    2016-01-01

    This comprehensive guide surveys all available models for simulating a photovoltaic (PV) generator at different levels of granularity, from cell to system level, in uniform as well as in mismatched conditions. Providing a thorough comparison among the models, engineers have all the elements needed to choose the right PV array model for specific applications or environmental conditions matched with the model of the electronic circuit used to maximize the PV power production.

  1. Model description and evaluation of model performance: DOSDIM model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lewyckyj, N.; Zeevaert, T.

    1996-01-01

    DOSDIM was developed to assess the impact to man from routine and accidental atmospheric releases. It is a compartmental, deterministic, radiological model. For an accidental release, dynamic transfer are used in opposition to a routine release for which equilibrium transfer factors are used. Parameters values were chosen to be conservative. Transfer between compartments are described by first-order differential equations. 2 figs

  2. Modelling MIZ dynamics in a global model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rynders, Stefanie; Aksenov, Yevgeny; Feltham, Daniel; Nurser, George; Naveira Garabato, Alberto

    2016-04-01

    Exposure of large, previously ice-covered areas of the Arctic Ocean to the wind and surface ocean waves results in the Arctic pack ice cover becoming more fragmented and mobile, with large regions of ice cover evolving into the Marginal Ice Zone (MIZ). The need for better climate predictions, along with growing economic activity in the Polar Oceans, necessitates climate and forecasting models that can simulate fragmented sea ice with a greater fidelity. Current models are not fully fit for the purpose, since they neither model surface ocean waves in the MIZ, nor account for the effect of floe fragmentation on drag, nor include sea ice rheology that represents both the now thinner pack ice and MIZ ice dynamics. All these processes affect the momentum transfer to the ocean. We present initial results from a global ocean model NEMO (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean) coupled to the Los Alamos sea ice model CICE. The model setup implements a novel rheological formulation for sea ice dynamics, accounting for ice floe collisions, thus offering a seamless framework for pack ice and MIZ simulations. The effect of surface waves on ice motion is included through wave pressure and the turbulent kinetic energy of ice floes. In the multidecadal model integrations we examine MIZ and basin scale sea ice and oceanic responses to the changes in ice dynamics. We analyse model sensitivities and attribute them to key sea ice and ocean dynamical mechanisms. The results suggest that the effect of the new ice rheology is confined to the MIZ. However with the current increase in summer MIZ area, which is projected to continue and may become the dominant type of sea ice in the Arctic, we argue that the effects of the combined sea ice rheology will be noticeable in large areas of the Arctic Ocean, affecting sea ice and ocean. With this study we assert that to make more accurate sea ice predictions in the changing Arctic, models need to include MIZ dynamics and physics.

  3. Understandings of 'Modelling'

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andresen, Mette

    2007-01-01

    -authentic modelling is also linked with the potentials of exploration of ready-made models as a forerunner for more authentic modelling processes. The discussion includes analysis of an episode of students? work in the classroom, which serves to illustrate how concept formation may be linked to explorations of a non...

  4. Crushed Salt Constitutive Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Callahan, G.D.

    1999-01-01

    The constitutive model used to describe the deformation of crushed salt is presented in this report. Two mechanisms -- dislocation creep and grain boundary diffusional pressure solution -- are combined to form the basis for the constitutive model governing the deformation of crushed salt. The constitutive model is generalized to represent three-dimensional states of stress. Upon complete consolidation, the crushed-salt model reproduces the Multimechanism Deformation (M-D) model typically used for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) host geological formation salt. New shear consolidation tests are combined with an existing database that includes hydrostatic consolidation and shear consolidation tests conducted on WIPP and southeastern New Mexico salt. Nonlinear least-squares model fitting to the database produced two sets of material parameter values for the model -- one for the shear consolidation tests and one for a combination of the shear and hydrostatic consolidation tests. Using the parameter values determined from the fitted database, the constitutive model is validated against constant strain-rate tests. Shaft seal problems are analyzed to demonstrate model-predicted consolidation of the shaft seal crushed-salt component. Based on the fitting statistics, the ability of the model to predict the test data, and the ability of the model to predict load paths and test data outside of the fitted database, the model appears to capture the creep consolidation behavior of crushed salt reasonably well

  5. Urban tree growth modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    E. Gregory McPherson; Paula J. Peper

    2012-01-01

    This paper describes three long-term tree growth studies conducted to evaluate tree performance because repeated measurements of the same trees produce critical data for growth model calibration and validation. Several empirical and process-based approaches to modeling tree growth are reviewed. Modeling is more advanced in the fields of forestry and...

  6. The IIR evaluation model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Borlund, Pia

    2003-01-01

    An alternative approach to evaluation of interactive information retrieval (IIR) systems, referred to as the IIR evaluation model, is proposed. The model provides a framework for the collection and analysis of IR interaction data. The aim of the model is two-fold: 1) to facilitate the evaluation ...

  7. Modeling Natural Selection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bogiages, Christopher A.; Lotter, Christine

    2011-01-01

    In their research, scientists generate, test, and modify scientific models. These models can be shared with others and demonstrate a scientist's understanding of how the natural world works. Similarly, students can generate and modify models to gain a better understanding of the content, process, and nature of science (Kenyon, Schwarz, and Hug…

  8. Models for tracer flow

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zuber, A.

    1983-01-01

    A review and discussion is given of mathematical models used for interpretation of tracer experiments in hydrology. For dispersion model, different initial and boundary conditions are related to different injection and detection modes. Examples of applications of various models are described and commented. (author)

  9. Loglinear Rasch model tests

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kelderman, Hendrikus

    1984-01-01

    Existing statistical tests for the fit of the Rasch model have been criticized, because they are only sensitive to specific violations of its assumptions. Contingency table methods using loglinear models have been used to test various psychometric models. In this paper, the assumptions of the Rasch

  10. The cloudy bag model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thomas, A.W.

    1981-01-01

    Recent developments in the bag model, in which the constraints of chiral symmetry are explicitly included are reviewed. The model leads to a new understanding of the Δ-resonance. The connection of the theory with current algebra is clarified and implications of the model for the structure of the nucleon are discussed

  11. Climate models and scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fortelius, C.; Holopainen, E.; Kaurola, J.; Ruosteenoja, K.; Raeisaenen, J. [Helsinki Univ. (Finland). Dept. of Meteorology

    1996-12-31

    In recent years the modelling of interannual climate variability has been studied, the atmospheric energy and water cycles, and climate simulations with the ECHAM3 model. In addition, the climate simulations of several models have been compared with special emphasis in the area of northern Europe

  12. The nontopological soliton model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilets, L.

    1988-01-01

    The nontopological soliton model introduced by Friedberg and Lee, and variations of it, provide a method for modeling QCD which can effectively include the dynamics of hadronic collisions as well as spectra. Absolute color confinement is effected by the assumed dielectric properties of the medium. A recently proposed version of the model is chirally invariant. 32 refs., 5 figs., 1 tab

  13. Models selection and fitting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martin Llorente, F.

    1990-01-01

    The models of atmospheric pollutants dispersion are based in mathematic algorithms that describe the transport, diffusion, elimination and chemical reactions of atmospheric contaminants. These models operate with data of contaminants emission and make an estimation of quality air in the area. This model can be applied to several aspects of atmospheric contamination

  14. Bayesian Graphical Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Finn Verner; Nielsen, Thomas Dyhre

    2016-01-01

    Mathematically, a Bayesian graphical model is a compact representation of the joint probability distribution for a set of variables. The most frequently used type of Bayesian graphical models are Bayesian networks. The structural part of a Bayesian graphical model is a graph consisting of nodes...

  15. Intermittency in branching models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chiu, C.B.; Texas Univ., Austin; Hwa, R.C.; Oregon Univ., Eugene

    1990-01-01

    The intermittency properties of three branching models have been investigated. The factorial moments show power-law behavior as function of small rapidity width. The slopes and energy dependences reveal different characteristics of the models. The gluon model has the weakest intermittency. (orig.)

  16. Making business models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gudiksen, Sune Klok; Poulsen, Søren Bolvig; Buur, Jacob

    2014-01-01

    Well-established companies are currently struggling to secure profits due to the pressure from new players' business models as they take advantage of communication technology and new business-model configurations. Because of this, the business model research field flourishes currently; however, t...

  17. ECOMOD: Ecological model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sazykina, T.G.; Kryshev, I.I.

    1996-01-01

    The main purpose of the model is a more detailed description of the radionuclide transfer in food chains, including the dynamics in the early period after accidental release. Detailed modelling of the dynamics of radioactive depositions is beyond the purpose of the model. Standard procedures are used for assessing inhalation and external doses. 3 figs, 2 tabs

  18. Modern Media Education Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fedorov, Alexander

    2011-01-01

    The author supposed that media education models can be divided into the following groups: (1) educational-information models (the study of the theory, history, language of media culture, etc.), based on the cultural, aesthetic, semiotic, socio-cultural theories of media education; (2) educational-ethical models (the study of moral, religions,…

  19. Climate models and scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fortelius, C; Holopainen, E; Kaurola, J; Ruosteenoja, K; Raeisaenen, J [Helsinki Univ. (Finland). Dept. of Meteorology

    1997-12-31

    In recent years the modelling of interannual climate variability has been studied, the atmospheric energy and water cycles, and climate simulations with the ECHAM3 model. In addition, the climate simulations of several models have been compared with special emphasis in the area of northern Europe

  20. Dynamic term structure models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andreasen, Martin Møller; Meldrum, Andrew

    This paper studies whether dynamic term structure models for US nominal bond yields should enforce the zero lower bound by a quadratic policy rate or a shadow rate specification. We address the question by estimating quadratic term structure models (QTSMs) and shadow rate models with at most four...