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Sample records for moving average sarima

  1. Prediction of Tourist Arrivals to the Island of Bali with Holt Method of Winter and Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Agus Supriatna

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The tourism sector is one of the contributors of foreign exchange is quite influential in improving the economy of Indonesia. The development of this sector will have a positive impact, including employment opportunities and opportunities for entrepreneurship in various industries such as adventure tourism, craft or hospitality. The beauty and natural resources owned by Indonesia become a tourist attraction for domestic and foreign tourists. One of the many tourist destination is the island of Bali. The island of Bali is not only famous for its natural, cultural diversity and arts but there are also add the value of tourism. In 2015 the increase in the number of tourist arrivals amounted to 6.24% from the previous year. In improving the quality of services, facing a surge of visitors, or prepare a strategy in attracting tourists need a prediction of arrival so that planning can be more efficient and effective. This research used  Holt Winter's method and Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA method  to predict tourist arrivals. Based on data of foreign tourist arrivals who visited the Bali island in January 2007 until June 2016, the result of Holt Winter's method with parameter values α=0.1 ,β=0.1 ,γ=0.3 has an error MAPE is 6,171873. While the result of SARIMA method with (0,1,1〖(1,0,0〗12 model has an error MAPE is 5,788615 and it can be concluded that SARIMA method is better. Keywords: Foreign Tourist, Prediction, Bali Island, Holt-Winter’s, SARIMA.

  2. Monthly reservoir inflow forecasting using a new hybrid SARIMA genetic programming approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moeeni, Hamid; Bonakdari, Hossein; Ebtehaj, Isa

    2017-03-01

    Forecasting reservoir inflow is one of the most important components of water resources and hydroelectric systems operation management. Seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) models have been frequently used for predicting river flow. SARIMA models are linear and do not consider the random component of statistical data. To overcome this shortcoming, monthly inflow is predicted in this study based on a combination of seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) and gene expression programming (GEP) models, which is a new hybrid method (SARIMA-GEP). To this end, a four-step process is employed. First, the monthly inflow datasets are pre-processed. Second, the datasets are modelled linearly with SARIMA and in the third stage, the non-linearity of residual series caused by linear modelling is evaluated. After confirming the non-linearity, the residuals are modelled in the fourth step using a gene expression programming (GEP) method. The proposed hybrid model is employed to predict the monthly inflow to the Jamishan Dam in west Iran. Thirty years' worth of site measurements of monthly reservoir dam inflow with extreme seasonal variations are used. The results of this hybrid model (SARIMA-GEP) are compared with SARIMA, GEP, artificial neural network (ANN) and SARIMA-ANN models. The results indicate that the SARIMA-GEP model ( R 2=78.8, VAF =78.8, RMSE =0.89, MAPE =43.4, CRM =0.053) outperforms SARIMA and GEP and SARIMA-ANN ( R 2=68.3, VAF =66.4, RMSE =1.12, MAPE =56.6, CRM =0.032) displays better performance than the SARIMA and ANN models. A comparison of the two hybrid models indicates the superiority of SARIMA-GEP over the SARIMA-ANN model.

  3. Monthly reservoir inflow forecasting using a new hybrid SARIMA ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) models have been frequently ... studied the perfor- mance of stochastic models against ANN models in ..... the model parameters and Se is the standard error. 2.1.3 Nonlinear term ...... ison of regression, ARIMA and ANN models for reservoir inflow forecasting ...

  4. Autoregressive Moving Average Graph Filtering

    OpenAIRE

    Isufi, Elvin; Loukas, Andreas; Simonetto, Andrea; Leus, Geert

    2016-01-01

    One of the cornerstones of the field of signal processing on graphs are graph filters, direct analogues of classical filters, but intended for signals defined on graphs. This work brings forth new insights on the distributed graph filtering problem. We design a family of autoregressive moving average (ARMA) recursions, which (i) are able to approximate any desired graph frequency response, and (ii) give exact solutions for tasks such as graph signal denoising and interpolation. The design phi...

  5. A dynamic analysis of moving average rules

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chiarella, C.; He, X.Z.; Hommes, C.H.

    2006-01-01

    The use of various moving average (MA) rules remains popular with financial market practitioners. These rules have recently become the focus of a number empirical studies, but there have been very few studies of financial market models where some agents employ technical trading rules of the type

  6. on the performance of Autoregressive Moving Average Polynomial

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Timothy Ademakinwa

    Distributed Lag (PDL) model, Autoregressive Polynomial Distributed Lag ... Moving Average Polynomial Distributed Lag (ARMAPDL) model. ..... Global Journal of Mathematics and Statistics. Vol. 1. ... Business and Economic Research Center.

  7. Self-similarity of higher-order moving averages

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arianos, Sergio; Carbone, Anna; Türk, Christian

    2011-10-01

    In this work, higher-order moving average polynomials are defined by straightforward generalization of the standard moving average. The self-similarity of the polynomials is analyzed for fractional Brownian series and quantified in terms of the Hurst exponent H by using the detrending moving average method. We prove that the exponent H of the fractional Brownian series and of the detrending moving average variance asymptotically agree for the first-order polynomial. Such asymptotic values are compared with the results obtained by the simulations. The higher-order polynomials correspond to trend estimates at shorter time scales as the degree of the polynomial increases. Importantly, the increase of polynomial degree does not require to change the moving average window. Thus trends at different time scales can be obtained on data sets with the same size. These polynomials could be interesting for those applications relying on trend estimates over different time horizons (financial markets) or on filtering at different frequencies (image analysis).

  8. Modeling and forecasting rainfall patterns of southwest monsoons in North-East India as a SARIMA process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Narasimha Murthy, K. V.; Saravana, R.; Vijaya Kumar, K.

    2018-02-01

    Weather forecasting is an important issue in the field of meteorology all over the world. The pattern and amount of rainfall are the essential factors that affect agricultural systems. India experiences the precious Southwest monsoon season for four months from June to September. The present paper describes an empirical study for modeling and forecasting the time series of Southwest monsoon rainfall patterns in the North-East India. The Box-Jenkins Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) methodology has been adopted for model identification, diagnostic checking and forecasting for this region. The study has shown that the SARIMA (0, 1, 1) (1, 0, 1)4 model is appropriate for analyzing and forecasting the future rainfall patterns. The Analysis of Means (ANOM) is a useful alternative to the analysis of variance (ANOVA) for comparing the group of treatments to study the variations and critical comparisons of rainfall patterns in different months of the season.

  9. A note on moving average models for Gaussian random fields

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Linda Vadgård; Thorarinsdottir, Thordis L.

    The class of moving average models offers a flexible modeling framework for Gaussian random fields with many well known models such as the Matérn covariance family and the Gaussian covariance falling under this framework. Moving average models may also be viewed as a kernel smoothing of a Lévy...... basis, a general modeling framework which includes several types of non-Gaussian models. We propose a new one-parameter spatial correlation model which arises from a power kernel and show that the associated Hausdorff dimension of the sample paths can take any value between 2 and 3. As a result...

  10. Bivariate copulas on the exponentially weighted moving average control chart

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sasigarn Kuvattana

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes four types of copulas on the Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (EWMA control chart when observations are from an exponential distribution using a Monte Carlo simulation approach. The performance of the control chart is based on the Average Run Length (ARL which is compared for each copula. Copula functions for specifying dependence between random variables are used and measured by Kendall’s tau. The results show that the Normal copula can be used for almost all shifts.

  11. Moving average rules as a source of market instability

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chiarella, C.; He, X.Z.; Hommes, C.H.

    2006-01-01

    Despite the pervasiveness of the efficient markets paradigm in the academic finance literature, the use of various moving average (MA) trading rules remains popular with financial market practitioners. This paper proposes a stochastic dynamic financial market model in which demand for traded assets

  12. Capillary Electrophoresis Sensitivity Enhancement Based on Adaptive Moving Average Method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drevinskas, Tomas; Telksnys, Laimutis; Maruška, Audrius; Gorbatsova, Jelena; Kaljurand, Mihkel

    2018-06-05

    In the present work, we demonstrate a novel approach to improve the sensitivity of the "out of lab" portable capillary electrophoretic measurements. Nowadays, many signal enhancement methods are (i) underused (nonoptimal), (ii) overused (distorts the data), or (iii) inapplicable in field-portable instrumentation because of a lack of computational power. The described innovative migration velocity-adaptive moving average method uses an optimal averaging window size and can be easily implemented with a microcontroller. The contactless conductivity detection was used as a model for the development of a signal processing method and the demonstration of its impact on the sensitivity. The frequency characteristics of the recorded electropherograms and peaks were clarified. Higher electrophoretic mobility analytes exhibit higher-frequency peaks, whereas lower electrophoretic mobility analytes exhibit lower-frequency peaks. On the basis of the obtained data, a migration velocity-adaptive moving average algorithm was created, adapted, and programmed into capillary electrophoresis data-processing software. Employing the developed algorithm, each data point is processed depending on a certain migration time of the analyte. Because of the implemented migration velocity-adaptive moving average method, the signal-to-noise ratio improved up to 11 times for sampling frequency of 4.6 Hz and up to 22 times for sampling frequency of 25 Hz. This paper could potentially be used as a methodological guideline for the development of new smoothing algorithms that require adaptive conditions in capillary electrophoresis and other separation methods.

  13. Kumaraswamy autoregressive moving average models for double bounded environmental data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bayer, Fábio Mariano; Bayer, Débora Missio; Pumi, Guilherme

    2017-12-01

    In this paper we introduce the Kumaraswamy autoregressive moving average models (KARMA), which is a dynamic class of models for time series taking values in the double bounded interval (a,b) following the Kumaraswamy distribution. The Kumaraswamy family of distribution is widely applied in many areas, especially hydrology and related fields. Classical examples are time series representing rates and proportions observed over time. In the proposed KARMA model, the median is modeled by a dynamic structure containing autoregressive and moving average terms, time-varying regressors, unknown parameters and a link function. We introduce the new class of models and discuss conditional maximum likelihood estimation, hypothesis testing inference, diagnostic analysis and forecasting. In particular, we provide closed-form expressions for the conditional score vector and conditional Fisher information matrix. An application to environmental real data is presented and discussed.

  14. Modeling methane emission via the infinite moving average process

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Jordanova, D.; Dušek, Jiří; Stehlík, M.

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 122, - (2013), s. 40-49 ISSN 0169-7439 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) ED1.1.00/02.0073; GA ČR(CZ) GAP504/11/1151 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : Environmental chemistry * Pareto tails * t-Hill estimator * Weak consistency * Moving average process * Methane emission model Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 2.381, year: 2013

  15. Spatial analysis based on variance of moving window averages

    OpenAIRE

    Wu, B M; Subbarao, K V; Ferrandino, F J; Hao, J J

    2006-01-01

    A new method for analysing spatial patterns was designed based on the variance of moving window averages (VMWA), which can be directly calculated in geographical information systems or a spreadsheet program (e.g. MS Excel). Different types of artificial data were generated to test the method. Regardless of data types, the VMWA method correctly determined the mean cluster sizes. This method was also employed to assess spatial patterns in historical plant disease survey data encompassing both a...

  16. An EMD–SARIMA-Based Modeling Approach for Air Traffic Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei Nai

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The ever-increasing air traffic demand in China has brought huge pressure on the planning and management of, and investment in, air terminals as well as airline companies. In this context, accurate and adequate short-term air traffic forecasting is essential for the operations of those entities. In consideration of such a problem, a hybrid air traffic forecasting model based on empirical mode decomposition (EMD and seasonal auto regressive integrated moving average (SARIMA has been proposed in this paper. The model proposed decomposes the original time series into components at first, and models each component with the SARIMA forecasting model, then integrates all the models together to form the final combined forecast result. By using the monthly air cargo and passenger flow data from the years 2006 to 2014 available at the official website of the Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC, the effectiveness in forecasting of the model proposed has been demonstrated, and by a horizontal performance comparison between several other widely used forecasting models, the advantage of the proposed model has also been proved.

  17. Passenger Flow Forecasting Research for Airport Terminal Based on SARIMA Time Series Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Ziyu; Bi, Jun; Li, Zhiyin

    2017-12-01

    Based on the data of practical operating of Kunming Changshui International Airport during2016, this paper proposes Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model to predict the passenger flow. This article not only considers the non-stationary and autocorrelation of the sequence, but also considers the daily periodicity of the sequence. The prediction results can accurately describe the change trend of airport passenger flow and provide scientific decision support for the optimal allocation of airport resources and optimization of departure process. The result shows that this model is applicable to the short-term prediction of airport terminal departure passenger traffic and the average error ranges from 1% to 3%. The difference between the predicted and the true values of passenger traffic flow is quite small, which indicates that the model has fairly good passenger traffic flow prediction ability.

  18. Identification of moving vehicle forces on bridge structures via moving average Tikhonov regularization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, Chu-Dong; Yu, Ling; Liu, Huan-Lin

    2017-08-01

    Traffic-induced moving force identification (MFI) is a typical inverse problem in the field of bridge structural health monitoring. Lots of regularization-based methods have been proposed for MFI. However, the MFI accuracy obtained from the existing methods is low when the moving forces enter into and exit a bridge deck due to low sensitivity of structural responses to the forces at these zones. To overcome this shortcoming, a novel moving average Tikhonov regularization method is proposed for MFI by combining with the moving average concepts. Firstly, the bridge-vehicle interaction moving force is assumed as a discrete finite signal with stable average value (DFS-SAV). Secondly, the reasonable signal feature of DFS-SAV is quantified and introduced for improving the penalty function (∣∣x∣∣2 2) defined in the classical Tikhonov regularization. Then, a feasible two-step strategy is proposed for selecting regularization parameter and balance coefficient defined in the improved penalty function. Finally, both numerical simulations on a simply-supported beam and laboratory experiments on a hollow tube beam are performed for assessing the accuracy and the feasibility of the proposed method. The illustrated results show that the moving forces can be accurately identified with a strong robustness. Some related issues, such as selection of moving window length, effect of different penalty functions, and effect of different car speeds, are discussed as well.

  19. Analysis of nonlinear systems using ARMA [autoregressive moving average] models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hunter, N.F. Jr.

    1990-01-01

    While many vibration systems exhibit primarily linear behavior, a significant percentage of the systems encountered in vibration and model testing are mildly to severely nonlinear. Analysis methods for such nonlinear systems are not yet well developed and the response of such systems is not accurately predicted by linear models. Nonlinear ARMA (autoregressive moving average) models are one method for the analysis and response prediction of nonlinear vibratory systems. In this paper we review the background of linear and nonlinear ARMA models, and illustrate the application of these models to nonlinear vibration systems. We conclude by summarizing the advantages and disadvantages of ARMA models and emphasizing prospects for future development. 14 refs., 11 figs

  20. Application of autoregressive moving average model in reactor noise analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tran Dinh Tri

    1993-01-01

    The application of an autoregressive (AR) model to estimating noise measurements has achieved many successes in reactor noise analysis in the last ten years. The physical processes that take place in the nuclear reactor, however, are described by an autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model rather than by an AR model. Consequently more correct results could be obtained by applying the ARMA model instead of the AR model to reactor noise analysis. In this paper the system of the generalised Yule-Walker equations is derived from the equation of an ARMA model, then a method for its solution is given. Numerical results show the applications of the method proposed. (author)

  1. Generalized Heteroskedasticity ACF for Moving Average Models in Explicit Forms

    OpenAIRE

    Samir Khaled Safi

    2014-01-01

    The autocorrelation function (ACF) measures the correlation between observations at different   distances apart. We derive explicit equations for generalized heteroskedasticity ACF for moving average of order q, MA(q). We consider two cases: Firstly: when the disturbance term follow the general covariance matrix structure Cov(wi, wj)=S with si,j ¹ 0 " i¹j . Secondly: when the diagonal elements of S are not all identical but sij = 0 " i¹j, i.e. S=diag(s11, s22,&hellip...

  2. Generalized Heteroskedasticity ACF for Moving Average Models in Explicit Forms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samir Khaled Safi

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Normal 0 false false false MicrosoftInternetExplorer4 The autocorrelation function (ACF measures the correlation between observations at different   distances apart. We derive explicit equations for generalized heteroskedasticity ACF for moving average of order q, MA(q. We consider two cases: Firstly: when the disturbance term follow the general covariance matrix structure Cov(wi, wj=S with si,j ¹ 0 " i¹j . Secondly: when the diagonal elements of S are not all identical but sij = 0 " i¹j, i.e. S=diag(s11, s22,…,stt. The forms of the explicit equations depend essentially on the moving average coefficients and covariance structure of the disturbance terms.   /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"جدول عادي"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0cm; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:10.0pt; font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-ansi-language:#0400; mso-fareast-language:#0400; mso-bidi-language:#0400;}

  3. Monthly streamflow forecasting with auto-regressive integrated moving average

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nasir, Najah; Samsudin, Ruhaidah; Shabri, Ani

    2017-09-01

    Forecasting of streamflow is one of the many ways that can contribute to better decision making for water resource management. The auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was selected in this research for monthly streamflow forecasting with enhancement made by pre-processing the data using singular spectrum analysis (SSA). This study also proposed an extension of the SSA technique to include a step where clustering was performed on the eigenvector pairs before reconstruction of the time series. The monthly streamflow data of Sungai Muda at Jeniang, Sungai Muda at Jambatan Syed Omar and Sungai Ketil at Kuala Pegang was gathered from the Department of Irrigation and Drainage Malaysia. A ratio of 9:1 was used to divide the data into training and testing sets. The ARIMA, SSA-ARIMA and Clustered SSA-ARIMA models were all developed in R software. Results from the proposed model are then compared to a conventional auto-regressive integrated moving average model using the root-mean-square error and mean absolute error values. It was found that the proposed model can outperform the conventional model.

  4. Image compression using moving average histogram and RBF network

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khowaja, S.; Ismaili, I.A.

    2015-01-01

    Modernization and Globalization have made the multimedia technology as one of the fastest growing field in recent times but optimal use of bandwidth and storage has been one of the topics which attract the research community to work on. Considering that images have a lion share in multimedia communication, efficient image compression technique has become the basic need for optimal use of bandwidth and space. This paper proposes a novel method for image compression based on fusion of moving average histogram and RBF (Radial Basis Function). Proposed technique employs the concept of reducing color intensity levels using moving average histogram technique followed by the correction of color intensity levels using RBF networks at reconstruction phase. Existing methods have used low resolution images for the testing purpose but the proposed method has been tested on various image resolutions to have a clear assessment of the said technique. The proposed method have been tested on 35 images with varying resolution and have been compared with the existing algorithms in terms of CR (Compression Ratio), MSE (Mean Square Error), PSNR (Peak Signal to Noise Ratio), computational complexity. The outcome shows that the proposed methodology is a better trade off technique in terms of compression ratio, PSNR which determines the quality of the image and computational complexity. (author)

  5. Development of S-ARIMA Model for Forecasting Demand in a Beverage Supply Chain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mircetic, Dejan; Nikolicic, Svetlana; Maslaric, Marinko; Ralevic, Nebojsa; Debelic, Borna

    2016-11-01

    Demand forecasting is one of the key activities in planning the freight flows in supply chains, and accordingly it is essential for planning and scheduling of logistic activities within observed supply chain. Accurate demand forecasting models directly influence the decrease of logistics costs, since they provide an assessment of customer demand. Customer demand is a key component for planning all logistic processes in supply chain, and therefore determining levels of customer demand is of great interest for supply chain managers. In this paper we deal with exactly this kind of problem, and we develop the seasonal Autoregressive IntegratedMoving Average (SARIMA) model for forecasting demand patterns of a major product of an observed beverage company. The model is easy to understand, flexible to use and appropriate for assisting the expert in decision making process about consumer demand in particular periods.

  6. An Exponentially Weighted Moving Average Control Chart for Bernoulli Data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Spliid, Henrik

    2010-01-01

    of the transformation is given and its limit for small values of p is derived. Control of high yield processes is discussed and the chart is shown to perform very well in comparison with both the most common alternative EWMA chart and the CUSUM chart. The construction and the use of the proposed EWMA chart......We consider a production process in which units are produced in a sequential manner. The units can, for example, be manufactured items or services, provided to clients. Each unit produced can be a failure with probability p or a success (non-failure) with probability (1-p). A novel exponentially...... weighted moving average (EWMA) control chart intended for surveillance of the probability of failure, p, is described. The chart is based on counting the number of non-failures produced between failures in combination with a variance-stabilizing transformation. The distribution function...

  7. Periodicity analysis of tourist arrivals to Banda Aceh using smoothing SARIMA approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miftahuddin, Helida, Desri; Sofyan, Hizir

    2017-11-01

    Forecasting the number of tourist arrivals who enters a region is needed for tourism businesses, economic and industrial policies, so that the statistical modeling needs to be conducted. Banda Aceh is the capital of Aceh province more economic activity is driven by the services sector, one of which is the tourism sector. Therefore, the prediction of the number of tourist arrivals is needed to develop further policies. The identification results indicate that the data arrival of foreign tourists to Banda Aceh to contain the trend and seasonal nature. Allegedly, the number of arrivals is influenced by external factors, such as economics, politics, and the holiday season caused the structural break in the data. Trend patterns are detected by using polynomial regression with quadratic and cubic approaches, while seasonal is detected by a periodic regression polynomial with quadratic and cubic approach. To model the data that has seasonal effects, one of the statistical methods that can be used is SARIMA (Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average). The results showed that the smoothing, a method to detect the trend pattern is cubic polynomial regression approach, with the modified model and the multiplicative periodicity of 12 months. The AIC value obtained was 70.52. While the method for detecting the seasonal pattern is a periodic regression polynomial cubic approach, with the modified model and the multiplicative periodicity of 12 months. The AIC value obtained was 73.37. Furthermore, the best model to predict the number of foreign tourist arrivals to Banda Aceh in 2017 to 2018 is SARIMA (0,1,1)(1,1,0) with MAPE is 26%.

  8. Assessing the Efficacy of Adjustable Moving Averages Using ASEAN-5 Currencies.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jacinta Chan Phooi M'ng

    Full Text Available The objective of this research is to examine the trends in the exchange rate markets of the ASEAN-5 countries (Indonesia (IDR, Malaysia (MYR, the Philippines (PHP, Singapore (SGD, and Thailand (THB through the application of dynamic moving average trading systems. This research offers evidence of the usefulness of the time-varying volatility technical analysis indicator, Adjustable Moving Average (AMA' in deciphering trends in these ASEAN-5 exchange rate markets. This time-varying volatility factor, referred to as the Efficacy Ratio in this paper, is embedded in AMA'. The Efficacy Ratio adjusts the AMA' to the prevailing market conditions by avoiding whipsaws (losses due, in part, to acting on wrong trading signals, which generally occur when there is no general direction in the market in range trading and by entering early into new trends in trend trading. The efficacy of AMA' is assessed against other popular moving-average rules. Based on the January 2005 to December 2014 dataset, our findings show that the moving averages and AMA' are superior to the passive buy-and-hold strategy. Specifically, AMA' outperforms the other models for the United States Dollar against PHP (USD/PHP and USD/THB currency pairs. The results show that different length moving averages perform better in different periods for the five currencies. This is consistent with our hypothesis that a dynamic adjustable technical indicator is needed to cater for different periods in different markets.

  9. Assessing the Efficacy of Adjustable Moving Averages Using ASEAN-5 Currencies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chan Phooi M'ng, Jacinta; Zainudin, Rozaimah

    2016-01-01

    The objective of this research is to examine the trends in the exchange rate markets of the ASEAN-5 countries (Indonesia (IDR), Malaysia (MYR), the Philippines (PHP), Singapore (SGD), and Thailand (THB)) through the application of dynamic moving average trading systems. This research offers evidence of the usefulness of the time-varying volatility technical analysis indicator, Adjustable Moving Average (AMA') in deciphering trends in these ASEAN-5 exchange rate markets. This time-varying volatility factor, referred to as the Efficacy Ratio in this paper, is embedded in AMA'. The Efficacy Ratio adjusts the AMA' to the prevailing market conditions by avoiding whipsaws (losses due, in part, to acting on wrong trading signals, which generally occur when there is no general direction in the market) in range trading and by entering early into new trends in trend trading. The efficacy of AMA' is assessed against other popular moving-average rules. Based on the January 2005 to December 2014 dataset, our findings show that the moving averages and AMA' are superior to the passive buy-and-hold strategy. Specifically, AMA' outperforms the other models for the United States Dollar against PHP (USD/PHP) and USD/THB currency pairs. The results show that different length moving averages perform better in different periods for the five currencies. This is consistent with our hypothesis that a dynamic adjustable technical indicator is needed to cater for different periods in different markets.

  10. Compact and accurate linear and nonlinear autoregressive moving average model parameter estimation using laguerre functions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chon, K H; Cohen, R J; Holstein-Rathlou, N H

    1997-01-01

    A linear and nonlinear autoregressive moving average (ARMA) identification algorithm is developed for modeling time series data. The algorithm uses Laguerre expansion of kernals (LEK) to estimate Volterra-Wiener kernals. However, instead of estimating linear and nonlinear system dynamics via moving...... average models, as is the case for the Volterra-Wiener analysis, we propose an ARMA model-based approach. The proposed algorithm is essentially the same as LEK, but this algorithm is extended to include past values of the output as well. Thus, all of the advantages associated with using the Laguerre...

  11. Estimation and Forecasting in Vector Autoregressive Moving Average Models for Rich Datasets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dias, Gustavo Fruet; Kapetanios, George

    We address the issue of modelling and forecasting macroeconomic variables using rich datasets, by adopting the class of Vector Autoregressive Moving Average (VARMA) models. We overcome the estimation issue that arises with this class of models by implementing an iterative ordinary least squares (...

  12. Effect of parameters in moving average method for event detection enhancement using phase sensitive OTDR

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwon, Yong-Seok; Naeem, Khurram; Jeon, Min Yong; Kwon, Il-bum

    2017-04-01

    We analyze the relations of parameters in moving average method to enhance the event detectability of phase sensitive optical time domain reflectometer (OTDR). If the external events have unique frequency of vibration, then the control parameters of moving average method should be optimized in order to detect these events efficiently. A phase sensitive OTDR was implemented by a pulsed light source, which is composed of a laser diode, a semiconductor optical amplifier, an erbium-doped fiber amplifier, a fiber Bragg grating filter, and a light receiving part, which has a photo-detector and high speed data acquisition system. The moving average method is operated with the control parameters: total number of raw traces, M, number of averaged traces, N, and step size of moving, n. The raw traces are obtained by the phase sensitive OTDR with sound signals generated by a speaker. Using these trace data, the relation of the control parameters is analyzed. In the result, if the event signal has one frequency, then the optimal values of N, n are existed to detect the event efficiently.

  13. Using exponentially weighted moving average algorithm to defend against DDoS attacks

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Machaka, P

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper seeks to investigate the performance of the Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (EWMA) for mining big data and detection of DDoS attacks in Internet of Things (IoT) infrastructure. The paper will investigate the tradeoff between...

  14. Exponentially Weighted Moving Average Chart as a Suitable Tool for Nuchal Translucency Quality Review

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Hynek, M.; Smetanová, D.; Stejskal, D.; Zvárová, Jana

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 34, č. 4 (2014), s. 367-376 ISSN 0197-3851 Institutional support: RVO:67985807 Keywords : nuchal translucency * exponentially weighted moving average model * statistics Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 3.268, year: 2014

  15. A RED modified weighted moving average for soft real-time application

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Domanśka Joanna

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available The popularity of TCP/IP has resulted in an increase in usage of best-effort networks for real-time communication. Much effort has been spent to ensure quality of service for soft real-time traffic over IP networks. The Internet Engineering Task Force has proposed some architecture components, such as Active Queue Management (AQM. The paper investigates the influence of the weighted moving average on packet waiting time reduction for an AQM mechanism: the RED algorithm. The proposed method for computing the average queue length is based on a difference equation (a recursive equation. Depending on a particular optimality criterion, proper parameters of the modified weighted moving average function can be chosen. This change will allow reducing the number of violations of timing constraints and better use of this mechanism for soft real-time transmissions. The optimization problem is solved through simulations performed in OMNeT++ and later verified experimentally on a Linux implementation

  16. MARD—A moving average rose diagram application for the geosciences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munro, Mark A.; Blenkinsop, Thomas G.

    2012-12-01

    MARD 1.0 is a computer program for generating smoothed rose diagrams by using a moving average, which is designed for use across the wide range of disciplines encompassed within the Earth Sciences. Available in MATLAB®, Microsoft® Excel and GNU Octave formats, the program is fully compatible with both Microsoft® Windows and Macintosh operating systems. Each version has been implemented in a user-friendly way that requires no prior experience in programming with the software. MARD conducts a moving average smoothing, a form of signal processing low-pass filter, upon the raw circular data according to a set of pre-defined conditions selected by the user. This form of signal processing filter smoothes the angular dataset, emphasising significant circular trends whilst reducing background noise. Customisable parameters include whether the data is uni- or bi-directional, the angular range (or aperture) over which the data is averaged, and whether an unweighted or weighted moving average is to be applied. In addition to the uni- and bi-directional options, the MATLAB® and Octave versions also possess a function for plotting 2-dimensional dips/pitches in a single, lower, hemisphere. The rose diagrams from each version are exportable as one of a selection of common graphical formats. Frequently employed statistical measures that determine the vector mean, mean resultant (or length), circular standard deviation and circular variance are also included. MARD's scope is demonstrated via its application to a variety of datasets within the Earth Sciences.

  17. Relationship research between meteorological disasters and stock markets based on a multifractal detrending moving average algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Qingchen; Cao, Guangxi; Xu, Wei

    2018-01-01

    Based on a multifractal detrending moving average algorithm (MFDMA), this study uses the fractionally autoregressive integrated moving average process (ARFIMA) to demonstrate the effectiveness of MFDMA in the detection of auto-correlation at different sample lengths and to simulate some artificial time series with the same length as the actual sample interval. We analyze the effect of predictable and unpredictable meteorological disasters on the US and Chinese stock markets and the degree of long memory in different sectors. Furthermore, we conduct a preliminary investigation to determine whether the fluctuations of financial markets caused by meteorological disasters are derived from the normal evolution of the financial system itself or not. We also propose several reasonable recommendations.

  18. Monthly reservoir inflow forecasting using a new hybrid SARIMA ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    SARIMA models are linear and do not consider the random component of statistical data. To overcome this ... lake levels using artificial intelligence models and found that, compared with other models such as. ANN, GEP has .... that should be evaluated before modelling, and if they exist, they should be removed. The com-.

  19. Dosimetric consequences of planning lung treatments on 4DCT average reconstruction to represent a moving tumour

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dunn, L.F.; Taylor, M.L.; Kron, T.; Franich, R.

    2010-01-01

    Full text: Anatomic motion during a radiotherapy treatment is one of the more significant challenges in contemporary radiation therapy. For tumours of the lung, motion due to patient respiration makes both accurate planning and dose delivery difficult. One approach is to use the maximum intensity projection (MIP) obtained from a 40 computed tomography (CT) scan and then use this to determine the treatment volume. The treatment is then planned on a 4DCT average reco struction, rather than assuming the entire ITY has a uniform tumour density. This raises the question: how well does planning on a 'blurred' distribution of density with CT values greater than lung density but less than tumour density match the true case of a tumour moving within lung tissue? The aim of this study was to answer this question, determining the dosimetric impact of using a 4D-CT average reconstruction as the basis for a radiotherapy treatment plan. To achieve this, Monte-Carlo sim ulations were undertaken using GEANT4. The geometry consisted of a tumour (diameter 30 mm) moving with a sinusoidal pattern of amplitude = 20 mm. The tumour's excursion occurs within a lung equivalent volume beyond a chest wall interface. Motion was defined parallel to a 6 MY beam. This was then compared to a single oblate tumour of a magnitude determined by the extremes of the tumour motion. The variable density of the 4DCT average tumour is simulated by a time-weighted average, to achieve the observed density gradient. The generic moving tumour geometry is illustrated in the Figure.

  20. Evaluation of a multiple linear regression model and SARIMA model in forecasting heat demand for district heating system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fang, Tingting; Lahdelma, Risto

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • Social factor is considered for the linear regression models besides weather file. • Simultaneously optimize all the coefficients for linear regression models. • SARIMA combined with linear regression is used to forecast the heat demand. • The accuracy for both linear regression and time series models are evaluated. - Abstract: Forecasting heat demand is necessary for production and operation planning of district heating (DH) systems. In this study we first propose a simple regression model where the hourly outdoor temperature and wind speed forecast the heat demand. Weekly rhythm of heat consumption as a social component is added to the model to significantly improve the accuracy. The other type of model is the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model with exogenous variables as a combination to take weather factors, and the historical heat consumption data as depending variables. One outstanding advantage of the model is that it peruses the high accuracy for both long-term and short-term forecast by considering both exogenous factors and time series. The forecasting performance of both linear regression models and time series model are evaluated based on real-life heat demand data for the city of Espoo in Finland by out-of-sample tests for the last 20 full weeks of the year. The results indicate that the proposed linear regression model (T168h) using 168-h demand pattern with midweek holidays classified as Saturdays or Sundays gives the highest accuracy and strong robustness among all the tested models based on the tested forecasting horizon and corresponding data. Considering the parsimony of the input, the ease of use and the high accuracy, the proposed T168h model is the best in practice. The heat demand forecasting model can also be developed for individual buildings if automated meter reading customer measurements are available. This would allow forecasting the heat demand based on more accurate heat consumption

  1. Stochastic modelling of the monthly average maximum and minimum temperature patterns in India 1981-2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Narasimha Murthy, K. V.; Saravana, R.; Vijaya Kumar, K.

    2018-04-01

    The paper investigates the stochastic modelling and forecasting of monthly average maximum and minimum temperature patterns through suitable seasonal auto regressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model for the period 1981-2015 in India. The variations and distributions of monthly maximum and minimum temperatures are analyzed through Box plots and cumulative distribution functions. The time series plot indicates that the maximum temperature series contain sharp peaks in almost all the years, while it is not true for the minimum temperature series, so both the series are modelled separately. The possible SARIMA model has been chosen based on observing autocorrelation function (ACF), partial autocorrelation function (PACF), and inverse autocorrelation function (IACF) of the logarithmic transformed temperature series. The SARIMA (1, 0, 0) × (0, 1, 1)12 model is selected for monthly average maximum and minimum temperature series based on minimum Bayesian information criteria. The model parameters are obtained using maximum-likelihood method with the help of standard error of residuals. The adequacy of the selected model is determined using correlation diagnostic checking through ACF, PACF, IACF, and p values of Ljung-Box test statistic of residuals and using normal diagnostic checking through the kernel and normal density curves of histogram and Q-Q plot. Finally, the forecasting of monthly maximum and minimum temperature patterns of India for the next 3 years has been noticed with the help of selected model.

  2. PERAMALAN PERSEDIAAN INFUS MENGGUNAKAN METODE AUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE (ARIMA) PADA RUMAH SAKIT UMUM PUSAT SANGLAH

    OpenAIRE

    I PUTU YUDI PRABHADIKA; NI KETUT TARI TASTRAWATI; LUH PUTU IDA HARINI

    2018-01-01

    Infusion supplies are an important thing that must be considered by the hospital in meeting the needs of patients. This study aims to predict the need for infusion of 0.9% 500 ml of NaCl and 5% 500 ml glucose infusion at Sanglah General Hospital (RSUP) Sanglah so that the hospital can estimate the many infusions needed for the next six months. The forecasting method used in this research is the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) time series method. The results of this study indi...

  3. A generalization of the preset count moving average algorithm for digital rate meters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arandjelovic, Vojislav; Koturovic, Aleksandar; Vukanovic, Radomir

    2002-01-01

    A generalized definition of the preset count moving average algorithm for digital rate meters has been introduced. The algorithm is based on the knowledge of time intervals between successive pulses in random-pulse sequences. The steady state and transient regimes of the algorithm have been characterized. A measure for statistical fluctuations of the successive measurement results has been introduced. The versatility of the generalized algorithm makes it suitable for application in the design of the software of modern measuring/control digital systems

  4. Forecasting Rice Productivity and Production of Odisha, India, Using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rahul Tripathi

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Forecasting of rice area, production, and productivity of Odisha was made from the historical data of 1950-51 to 2008-09 by using univariate autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA models and was compared with the forecasted all Indian data. The autoregressive (p and moving average (q parameters were identified based on the significant spikes in the plots of partial autocorrelation function (PACF and autocorrelation function (ACF of the different time series. ARIMA (2, 1, 0 model was found suitable for all Indian rice productivity and production, whereas ARIMA (1, 1, 1 was best fitted for forecasting of rice productivity and production in Odisha. Prediction was made for the immediate next three years, that is, 2007-08, 2008-09, and 2009-10, using the best fitted ARIMA models based on minimum value of the selection criterion, that is, Akaike information criteria (AIC and Schwarz-Bayesian information criteria (SBC. The performances of models were validated by comparing with percentage deviation from the actual values and mean absolute percent error (MAPE, which was found to be 0.61 and 2.99% for the area under rice in Odisha and India, respectively. Similarly for prediction of rice production and productivity in Odisha and India, the MAPE was found to be less than 6%.

  5. Quantified moving average strategy of crude oil futures market based on fuzzy logic rules and genetic algorithms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Xiaojia; An, Haizhong; Wang, Lijun; Guan, Qing

    2017-09-01

    The moving average strategy is a technical indicator that can generate trading signals to assist investment. While the trading signals tell the traders timing to buy or sell, the moving average cannot tell the trading volume, which is a crucial factor for investment. This paper proposes a fuzzy moving average strategy, in which the fuzzy logic rule is used to determine the strength of trading signals, i.e., the trading volume. To compose one fuzzy logic rule, we use four types of moving averages, the length of the moving average period, the fuzzy extent, and the recommend value. Ten fuzzy logic rules form a fuzzy set, which generates a rating level that decides the trading volume. In this process, we apply genetic algorithms to identify an optimal fuzzy logic rule set and utilize crude oil futures prices from the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) as the experiment data. Each experiment is repeated for 20 times. The results show that firstly the fuzzy moving average strategy can obtain a more stable rate of return than the moving average strategies. Secondly, holding amounts series is highly sensitive to price series. Thirdly, simple moving average methods are more efficient. Lastly, the fuzzy extents of extremely low, high, and very high are more popular. These results are helpful in investment decisions.

  6. Autoregressive moving average fitting for real standard deviation in Monte Carlo power distribution calculation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ueki, Taro

    2010-01-01

    The noise propagation of tallies in the Monte Carlo power method can be represented by the autoregressive moving average process of orders p and p-1 (ARMA(p,p-1)], where p is an integer larger than or equal to two. The formula of the autocorrelation of ARMA(p,q), p≥q+1, indicates that ARMA(3,2) fitting is equivalent to lumping the eigenmodes of fluctuation propagation in three modes such as the slow, intermediate and fast attenuation modes. Therefore, ARMA(3,2) fitting was applied to the real standard deviation estimation of fuel assemblies at particular heights. The numerical results show that straightforward ARMA(3,2) fitting is promising but a stability issue must be resolved toward the incorporation in the distributed version of production Monte Carlo codes. The same numerical results reveal that the average performance of ARMA(3,2) fitting is equivalent to that of the batch method in MCNP with a batch size larger than one hundred and smaller than two hundred cycles for a 1100 MWe pressurized water reactor. The bias correction of low lag autocovariances in MVP/GMVP is demonstrated to have the potential of improving the average performance of ARMA(3,2) fitting. (author)

  7. Medium term municipal solid waste generation prediction by autoregressive integrated moving average

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Younes, Mohammad K.; Nopiah, Z. M.; Basri, Noor Ezlin A.; Basri, Hassan

    2014-01-01

    Generally, solid waste handling and management are performed by municipality or local authority. In most of developing countries, local authorities suffer from serious solid waste management (SWM) problems and insufficient data and strategic planning. Thus it is important to develop robust solid waste generation forecasting model. It helps to proper manage the generated solid waste and to develop future plan based on relatively accurate figures. In Malaysia, solid waste generation rate increases rapidly due to the population growth and new consumption trends that characterize the modern life style. This paper aims to develop monthly solid waste forecasting model using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), such model is applicable even though there is lack of data and will help the municipality properly establish the annual service plan. The results show that ARIMA (6,1,0) model predicts monthly municipal solid waste generation with root mean square error equals to 0.0952 and the model forecast residuals are within accepted 95% confident interval

  8. Shape and depth determinations from second moving average residual self-potential anomalies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abdelrahman, E M; El-Araby, T M; Essa, K S

    2009-01-01

    We have developed a semi-automatic method to determine the depth and shape (shape factor) of a buried structure from second moving average residual self-potential anomalies obtained from observed data using filters of successive window lengths. The method involves using a relationship between the depth and the shape to source and a combination of windowed observations. The relationship represents a parametric family of curves (window curves). For a fixed window length, the depth is determined for each shape factor. The computed depths are plotted against the shape factors, representing a continuous monotonically increasing curve. The solution for the shape and depth is read at the common intersection of the window curves. The validity of the method is tested on a synthetic example with and without random errors and on two field examples from Turkey and Germany. In all cases examined, the depth and the shape solutions obtained are in very good agreement with the true ones

  9. Medium term municipal solid waste generation prediction by autoregressive integrated moving average

    Science.gov (United States)

    Younes, Mohammad K.; Nopiah, Z. M.; Basri, Noor Ezlin A.; Basri, Hassan

    2014-09-01

    Generally, solid waste handling and management are performed by municipality or local authority. In most of developing countries, local authorities suffer from serious solid waste management (SWM) problems and insufficient data and strategic planning. Thus it is important to develop robust solid waste generation forecasting model. It helps to proper manage the generated solid waste and to develop future plan based on relatively accurate figures. In Malaysia, solid waste generation rate increases rapidly due to the population growth and new consumption trends that characterize the modern life style. This paper aims to develop monthly solid waste forecasting model using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), such model is applicable even though there is lack of data and will help the municipality properly establish the annual service plan. The results show that ARIMA (6,1,0) model predicts monthly municipal solid waste generation with root mean square error equals to 0.0952 and the model forecast residuals are within accepted 95% confident interval.

  10. Moving Average Filter-Based Phase-Locked Loops: Performance Analysis and Design Guidelines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Golestan, Saeed; Ramezani, Malek; Guerrero, Josep M.

    2014-01-01

    this challenge, incorporating moving average filter(s) (MAF) into the PLL structure has been proposed in some recent literature. A MAF is a linear-phase finite impulse response filter which can act as an ideal low-pass filter, if certain conditions hold. The main aim of this paper is to present the control...... design guidelines for a typical MAF-based PLL. The paper starts with the general description of MAFs. The main challenge associated with using the MAFs is then explained, and its possible solutions are discussed. The paper then proceeds with a brief overview of the different MAF-based PLLs. In each case......, the PLL block diagram description is shown, the advantages and limitations are briefly discussed, and the tuning approach (if available) is evaluated. The paper then presents two systematic methods to design the control parameters of a typical MAF-based PLL: one for the case of using a proportional...

  11. Medium term municipal solid waste generation prediction by autoregressive integrated moving average

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Younes, Mohammad K.; Nopiah, Z. M.; Basri, Noor Ezlin A.; Basri, Hassan [Department of Civil and Structural Engineering, Faculty of Engineering and Built Environment, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, 43600 Bangi, Selangor (Malaysia)

    2014-09-12

    Generally, solid waste handling and management are performed by municipality or local authority. In most of developing countries, local authorities suffer from serious solid waste management (SWM) problems and insufficient data and strategic planning. Thus it is important to develop robust solid waste generation forecasting model. It helps to proper manage the generated solid waste and to develop future plan based on relatively accurate figures. In Malaysia, solid waste generation rate increases rapidly due to the population growth and new consumption trends that characterize the modern life style. This paper aims to develop monthly solid waste forecasting model using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), such model is applicable even though there is lack of data and will help the municipality properly establish the annual service plan. The results show that ARIMA (6,1,0) model predicts monthly municipal solid waste generation with root mean square error equals to 0.0952 and the model forecast residuals are within accepted 95% confident interval.

  12. Robust nonlinear autoregressive moving average model parameter estimation using stochastic recurrent artificial neural networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chon, K H; Hoyer, D; Armoundas, A A

    1999-01-01

    In this study, we introduce a new approach for estimating linear and nonlinear stochastic autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model parameters, given a corrupt signal, using artificial recurrent neural networks. This new approach is a two-step approach in which the parameters of the deterministic...... part of the stochastic ARMA model are first estimated via a three-layer artificial neural network (deterministic estimation step) and then reestimated using the prediction error as one of the inputs to the artificial neural networks in an iterative algorithm (stochastic estimation step). The prediction...... error is obtained by subtracting the corrupt signal of the estimated ARMA model obtained via the deterministic estimation step from the system output response. We present computer simulation examples to show the efficacy of the proposed stochastic recurrent neural network approach in obtaining accurate...

  13. Statistical aspects of autoregressive-moving average models in the assessment of radon mitigation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dunn, J.E.; Henschel, D.B.

    1989-01-01

    Radon values, as reflected by hourly scintillation counts, seem dominated by major, pseudo-periodic, random fluctuations. This methodological paper reports a moderate degree of success in modeling these data using relatively simple autoregressive-moving average models to assess the effectiveness of radon mitigation techniques in existing housing. While accounting for the natural correlation of successive observations, familiar summary statistics such as steady state estimates, standard errors, confidence limits, and tests of hypothesis are produced. The Box-Jenkins approach is used throughout. In particular, intervention analysis provides an objective means of assessing the effectiveness of an active mitigation measure, such as a fan off/on cycle. Occasionally, failure to declare a significant intervention has suggested a means of remedial action in the data collection procedure

  14. A Two-Factor Autoregressive Moving Average Model Based on Fuzzy Fluctuation Logical Relationships

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shuang Guan

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Many of the existing autoregressive moving average (ARMA forecast models are based on one main factor. In this paper, we proposed a new two-factor first-order ARMA forecast model based on fuzzy fluctuation logical relationships of both a main factor and a secondary factor of a historical training time series. Firstly, we generated a fluctuation time series (FTS for two factors by calculating the difference of each data point with its previous day, then finding the absolute means of the two FTSs. We then constructed a fuzzy fluctuation time series (FFTS according to the defined linguistic sets. The next step was establishing fuzzy fluctuation logical relation groups (FFLRGs for a two-factor first-order autoregressive (AR(1 model and forecasting the training data with the AR(1 model. Then we built FFLRGs for a two-factor first-order autoregressive moving average (ARMA(1,m model. Lastly, we forecasted test data with the ARMA(1,m model. To illustrate the performance of our model, we used real Taiwan Stock Exchange Capitalization Weighted Stock Index (TAIEX and Dow Jones datasets as a secondary factor to forecast TAIEX. The experiment results indicate that the proposed two-factor fluctuation ARMA method outperformed the one-factor method based on real historic data. The secondary factor may have some effects on the main factor and thereby impact the forecasting results. Using fuzzified fluctuations rather than fuzzified real data could avoid the influence of extreme values in historic data, which performs negatively while forecasting. To verify the accuracy and effectiveness of the model, we also employed our method to forecast the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (SHSECI from 2001 to 2015 and the international gold price from 2000 to 2010.

  15. A Pareto-optimal moving average multigene genetic programming model for daily streamflow prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Danandeh Mehr, Ali; Kahya, Ercan

    2017-06-01

    Genetic programming (GP) is able to systematically explore alternative model structures of different accuracy and complexity from observed input and output data. The effectiveness of GP in hydrological system identification has been recognized in recent studies. However, selecting a parsimonious (accurate and simple) model from such alternatives still remains a question. This paper proposes a Pareto-optimal moving average multigene genetic programming (MA-MGGP) approach to develop a parsimonious model for single-station streamflow prediction. The three main components of the approach that take us from observed data to a validated model are: (1) data pre-processing, (2) system identification and (3) system simplification. The data pre-processing ingredient uses a simple moving average filter to diminish the lagged prediction effect of stand-alone data-driven models. The multigene ingredient of the model tends to identify the underlying nonlinear system with expressions simpler than classical monolithic GP and, eventually simplification component exploits Pareto front plot to select a parsimonious model through an interactive complexity-efficiency trade-off. The approach was tested using the daily streamflow records from a station on Senoz Stream, Turkey. Comparing to the efficiency results of stand-alone GP, MGGP, and conventional multi linear regression prediction models as benchmarks, the proposed Pareto-optimal MA-MGGP model put forward a parsimonious solution, which has a noteworthy importance of being applied in practice. In addition, the approach allows the user to enter human insight into the problem to examine evolved models and pick the best performing programs out for further analysis.

  16. Modified Exponential Weighted Moving Average (EWMA) Control Chart on Autocorrelation Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herdiani, Erna Tri; Fandrilla, Geysa; Sunusi, Nurtiti

    2018-03-01

    In general, observations of the statistical process control are assumed to be mutually independence. However, this assumption is often violated in practice. Consequently, statistical process controls were developed for interrelated processes, including Shewhart, Cumulative Sum (CUSUM), and exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) control charts in the data that were autocorrelation. One researcher stated that this chart is not suitable if the same control limits are used in the case of independent variables. For this reason, it is necessary to apply the time series model in building the control chart. A classical control chart for independent variables is usually applied to residual processes. This procedure is permitted provided that residuals are independent. In 1978, Shewhart modification for the autoregressive process was introduced by using the distance between the sample mean and the target value compared to the standard deviation of the autocorrelation process. In this paper we will examine the mean of EWMA for autocorrelation process derived from Montgomery and Patel. Performance to be investigated was investigated by examining Average Run Length (ARL) based on the Markov Chain Method.

  17. An Invariance Property for the Maximum Likelihood Estimator of the Parameters of a Gaussian Moving Average Process

    OpenAIRE

    Godolphin, E. J.

    1980-01-01

    It is shown that the estimation procedure of Walker leads to estimates of the parameters of a Gaussian moving average process which are asymptotically equivalent to the maximum likelihood estimates proposed by Whittle and represented by Godolphin.

  18. Average equilibrium charge state of 278113 ions moving in a helium gas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaji, D.; Morita, K.; Morimoto, K.

    2005-01-01

    Difficulty to identify a new heavy element comes from the small production cross section. For example, the production cross section was about 0.5 pb in the case of searching for the 112th element produced by the cold fusion reaction of 208 Pb( 70 Zn,n) 277 ll2. In order to identify heavier elements than element 112, the experimental apparatus with a sensitivity of sub-pico barn level is essentially needed. A gas-filled recoil separator, in general, has a large collection efficiency compared with other recoil separators as seen from the operation principle of a gas-filled recoil separator. One of the most important parameters for a gas-filled recoil separator is the average equilibrium charge state q ave of ions moving in a used gas. This is because the recoil ion can not be properly transported to the focal plane of the separator, if the q ave of an element of interest in a gas is unknown. We have systematically measured equilibrium charge state distributions of heavy ions ( 169 Tm, 208 Pb, 193,209 Bi, 196 Po, 200 At, 203,204 Fr, 212 Ac, 234 Bk, 245 Fm, 254 No, 255 Lr, and 265 Hs) moving in a helium gas by using the gas-filled recoil separator GARIS at RIKEN. Ana then, the empirical formula on q ave of heavy ions in a helium gas was derived as a function of the velocity and the atomic number of an ion on the basis of the Tomas-Fermi model of the atom. The formula was found to be applicable to search for transactinide nuclides of 271 Ds, 272 Rg, and 277 112 produced by cold fusion reactions. Using the formula on q ave , we searched for a new isotope of element 113 produced by the cold fusion reaction of 209 Bi( 70 Zn,n) 278 113. As a result, a decay chain due to an evaporation residue of 278 113 was observed. Recently, we have successfully observed the 2nd decay chain due to an evaporation residue of 278 113. In this report, we will present experimental results in detail, and will also discuss the average equilibrium charge sate of 278 113 in a helium gas by

  19. PERAMALAN DERET WAKTU MENGGUNAKAN MODEL FUNGSI BASIS RADIAL (RBF DAN AUTO REGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE (ARIMA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    DT Wiyanti

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Salah satu metode peramalan yang paling dikembangkan saat ini adalah time series, yakni menggunakan pendekatan kuantitatif dengan data masa lampau yang dijadikan acuan untuk peramalan masa depan. Berbagai penelitian telah mengusulkan metode-metode untuk menyelesaikan time series, di antaranya statistik, jaringan syaraf, wavelet, dan sistem fuzzy. Metode-metode tersebut memiliki kekurangan dan keunggulan yang berbeda. Namun permasalahan yang ada dalam dunia nyata merupakan masalah yang kompleks. Satu metode saja mungkin tidak mampu mengatasi masalah tersebut dengan baik. Dalam artikel ini dibahas penggabungan dua buah metode yaitu Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA dan Radial Basis Function (RBF. Alasan penggabungan kedua metode ini adalah karena adanya asumsi bahwa metode tunggal tidak dapat secara total mengidentifikasi semua karakteristik time series. Pada artikel ini dibahas peramalan terhadap data Indeks Harga Perdagangan Besar (IHPB dan data inflasi komoditi Indonesia; kedua data berada pada rentang tahun 2006 hingga beberapa bulan di tahun 2012. Kedua data tersebut masing-masing memiliki enam variabel. Hasil peramalan metode ARIMA-RBF dibandingkan dengan metode ARIMA dan metode RBF secara individual. Hasil analisa menunjukkan bahwa dengan metode penggabungan ARIMA dan RBF, model yang diberikan memiliki hasil yang lebih akurat dibandingkan dengan penggunaan salah satu metode saja. Hal ini terlihat dalam visual plot, MAPE, dan RMSE dari semua variabel pada dua data uji coba. The accuracy of time series forecasting is the subject of many decision-making processes. Time series use a quantitative approach to employ data from the past to make forecast for the future. Many researches have proposed several methods to solve time series, such as using statistics, neural networks, wavelets, and fuzzy systems. These methods have different advantages and disadvantages. But often the problem in the real world is just too complex that a

  20. Modelling and analysis of turbulent datasets using Auto Regressive Moving Average processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Faranda, Davide; Dubrulle, Bérengère; Daviaud, François; Pons, Flavio Maria Emanuele; Saint-Michel, Brice; Herbert, Éric; Cortet, Pierre-Philippe

    2014-01-01

    We introduce a novel way to extract information from turbulent datasets by applying an Auto Regressive Moving Average (ARMA) statistical analysis. Such analysis goes well beyond the analysis of the mean flow and of the fluctuations and links the behavior of the recorded time series to a discrete version of a stochastic differential equation which is able to describe the correlation structure in the dataset. We introduce a new index Υ that measures the difference between the resulting analysis and the Obukhov model of turbulence, the simplest stochastic model reproducing both Richardson law and the Kolmogorov spectrum. We test the method on datasets measured in a von Kármán swirling flow experiment. We found that the ARMA analysis is well correlated with spatial structures of the flow, and can discriminate between two different flows with comparable mean velocities, obtained by changing the forcing. Moreover, we show that the Υ is highest in regions where shear layer vortices are present, thereby establishing a link between deviations from the Kolmogorov model and coherent structures. These deviations are consistent with the ones observed by computing the Hurst exponents for the same time series. We show that some salient features of the analysis are preserved when considering global instead of local observables. Finally, we analyze flow configurations with multistability features where the ARMA technique is efficient in discriminating different stability branches of the system

  1. Electricity demand loads modeling using AutoRegressive Moving Average (ARMA) models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pappas, S.S. [Department of Information and Communication Systems Engineering, University of the Aegean, Karlovassi, 83 200 Samos (Greece); Ekonomou, L.; Chatzarakis, G.E. [Department of Electrical Engineering Educators, ASPETE - School of Pedagogical and Technological Education, N. Heraklion, 141 21 Athens (Greece); Karamousantas, D.C. [Technological Educational Institute of Kalamata, Antikalamos, 24100 Kalamata (Greece); Katsikas, S.K. [Department of Technology Education and Digital Systems, University of Piraeus, 150 Androutsou Srt., 18 532 Piraeus (Greece); Liatsis, P. [Division of Electrical Electronic and Information Engineering, School of Engineering and Mathematical Sciences, Information and Biomedical Engineering Centre, City University, Northampton Square, London EC1V 0HB (United Kingdom)

    2008-09-15

    This study addresses the problem of modeling the electricity demand loads in Greece. The provided actual load data is deseasonilized and an AutoRegressive Moving Average (ARMA) model is fitted on the data off-line, using the Akaike Corrected Information Criterion (AICC). The developed model fits the data in a successful manner. Difficulties occur when the provided data includes noise or errors and also when an on-line/adaptive modeling is required. In both cases and under the assumption that the provided data can be represented by an ARMA model, simultaneous order and parameter estimation of ARMA models under the presence of noise are performed. The produced results indicate that the proposed method, which is based on the multi-model partitioning theory, tackles successfully the studied problem. For validation purposes the produced results are compared with three other established order selection criteria, namely AICC, Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC) and Schwarz's Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC). The developed model could be useful in the studies that concern electricity consumption and electricity prices forecasts. (author)

  2. Forecasting Construction Tender Price Index in Ghana using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Exogenous Variables Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ernest Kissi

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Prices of construction resources keep on fluctuating due to unstable economic situations that have been experienced over the years. Clients knowledge of their financial commitments toward their intended project remains the basis for their final decision. The use of construction tender price index provides a realistic estimate at the early stage of the project. Tender price index (TPI is influenced by various economic factors, hence there are several statistical techniques that have been employed in forecasting. Some of these include regression, time series, vector error correction among others. However, in recent times the integrated modelling approach is gaining popularity due to its ability to give powerful predictive accuracy. Thus, in line with this assumption, the aim of this study is to apply autoregressive integrated moving average with exogenous variables (ARIMAX in modelling TPI. The results showed that ARIMAX model has a better predictive ability than the use of the single approach. The study further confirms the earlier position of previous research of the need to use the integrated model technique in forecasting TPI. This model will assist practitioners to forecast the future values of tender price index. Although the study focuses on the Ghanaian economy, the findings can be broadly applicable to other developing countries which share similar economic characteristics.

  3. Forecast of sea surface temperature off the Peruvian coast using an autoregressive integrated moving average model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos Quispe

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available El Niño connects globally climate, ecosystems and socio-economic activities. Since 1980 this event has been tried to be predicted, but until now the statistical and dynamical models are insuffi cient. Thus, the objective of the present work was to explore using an autoregressive moving average model the effect of El Niño over the sea surface temperature (TSM off the Peruvian coast. The work involved 5 stages: identifi cation, estimation, diagnostic checking, forecasting and validation. Simple and partial autocorrelation functions (FAC and FACP were used to identify and reformulate the orders of the model parameters, as well as Akaike information criterium (AIC and Schwarz criterium (SC for the selection of the best models during the diagnostic checking. Among the main results the models ARIMA(12,0,11 were proposed, which simulated monthly conditions in agreement with the observed conditions off the Peruvian coast: cold conditions at the end of 2004, and neutral conditions at the beginning of 2005.

  4. Synchronized moving aperture radiation therapy (SMART): average tumour trajectory for lung patients

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Neicu, Toni; Shirato, Hiroki; Seppenwoolde, Yvette; Jiang, Steve B

    2003-01-01

    Synchronized moving aperture radiation therapy (SMART) is a new technique for treating mobile tumours under development at Massachusetts General Hospital (MGH). The basic idea of SMART is to synchronize the moving radiation beam aperture formed by a dynamic multileaf collimator (DMLC) with the tumour motion induced by respiration. SMART is based on the concept of the average tumour trajectory (ATT) exhibited by a tumour during respiration. During the treatment simulation stage, tumour motion is measured and the ATT is derived. Then, the original IMRT MLC leaf sequence is modified using the ATT to compensate for tumour motion. During treatment, the tumour motion is monitored. The treatment starts when leaf motion and tumour motion are synchronized at a specific breathing phase. The treatment will halt when the tumour drifts away from the ATT and will resume when the synchronization between tumour motion and radiation beam is re-established. In this paper, we present a method to derive the ATT from measured tumour trajectory data. We also investigate the validity of the ATT concept for lung tumours during normal breathing. The lung tumour trajectory data were acquired during actual radiotherapy sessions using a real-time tumour-tracking system. SMART treatment is simulated by assuming that the radiation beam follows the derived ATT and the tumour follows the measured trajectory. In simulation, the treatment starts at exhale phase. The duty cycle of SMART delivery was calculated for various treatment times and gating thresholds, as well as for various exhale phases where the treatment begins. The simulation results show that in the case of free breathing, for 4 out of 11 lung datasets with tumour motion greater than 1 cm from peak to peak, the error in tumour tracking can be controlled to within a couple of millimetres while maintaining a reasonable delivery efficiency. That is to say, without any breath coaching/control, the ATT is a valid concept for some lung

  5. Nonlinear Autoregressive Network with the Use of a Moving Average Method for Forecasting Typhoon Tracks

    OpenAIRE

    Tienfuan Kerh; Shin-Hung Wu

    2017-01-01

    Forecasting of a typhoon moving path may help to evaluate the potential negative impacts in the neighbourhood areas along the moving path. This study proposed a work of using both static and dynamic neural network models to link a time series of typhoon track parameters including longitude and latitude of the typhoon central location, cyclonic radius, central wind speed, and typhoon moving speed. Based on the historical records of 100 typhoons, the performances of neural network models are ev...

  6. Experimental investigation of a moving averaging algorithm for motion perpendicular to the leaf travel direction in dynamic MLC target tracking

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yoon, Jai-Woong; Sawant, Amit; Suh, Yelin; Cho, Byung-Chul; Suh, Tae-Suk; Keall, Paul [Department of Biomedical Engineering, College of Medicine, Catholic University of Korea, Seoul, Korea 131-700 and Research Institute of Biomedical Engineering, Catholic University of Korea, Seoul, 131-700 (Korea, Republic of); Department of Radiation Oncology, Stanford University, Stanford, California 94305 (United States); Department of Radiation Oncology, Stanford University, Stanford, California 94305 (United States) and Department of Radiation Oncology, Asan Medical Center, Seoul, 138-736 (Korea, Republic of); Department of Biomedical Engineering, College of Medicine, Catholic University of Korea, Seoul, 131-700 and Research Institute of Biomedical Engineering, Catholic University of Korea, Seoul, 131-700 (Korea, Republic of); Department of Radiation Oncology, Stanford University, Stanford, California 94305 (United States) and Radiation Physics Laboratory, Sydney Medical School, University of Sydney, 2006 (Australia)

    2011-07-15

    Purpose: In dynamic multileaf collimator (MLC) motion tracking with complex intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) fields, target motion perpendicular to the MLC leaf travel direction can cause beam holds, which increase beam delivery time by up to a factor of 4. As a means to balance delivery efficiency and accuracy, a moving average algorithm was incorporated into a dynamic MLC motion tracking system (i.e., moving average tracking) to account for target motion perpendicular to the MLC leaf travel direction. The experimental investigation of the moving average algorithm compared with real-time tracking and no compensation beam delivery is described. Methods: The properties of the moving average algorithm were measured and compared with those of real-time tracking (dynamic MLC motion tracking accounting for both target motion parallel and perpendicular to the leaf travel direction) and no compensation beam delivery. The algorithm was investigated using a synthetic motion trace with a baseline drift and four patient-measured 3D tumor motion traces representing regular and irregular motions with varying baseline drifts. Each motion trace was reproduced by a moving platform. The delivery efficiency, geometric accuracy, and dosimetric accuracy were evaluated for conformal, step-and-shoot IMRT, and dynamic sliding window IMRT treatment plans using the synthetic and patient motion traces. The dosimetric accuracy was quantified via a {gamma}-test with a 3%/3 mm criterion. Results: The delivery efficiency ranged from 89 to 100% for moving average tracking, 26%-100% for real-time tracking, and 100% (by definition) for no compensation. The root-mean-square geometric error ranged from 3.2 to 4.0 mm for moving average tracking, 0.7-1.1 mm for real-time tracking, and 3.7-7.2 mm for no compensation. The percentage of dosimetric points failing the {gamma}-test ranged from 4 to 30% for moving average tracking, 0%-23% for real-time tracking, and 10%-47% for no compensation

  7. Experimental investigation of a moving averaging algorithm for motion perpendicular to the leaf travel direction in dynamic MLC target tracking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoon, Jai-Woong; Sawant, Amit; Suh, Yelin; Cho, Byung-Chul; Suh, Tae-Suk; Keall, Paul

    2011-07-01

    In dynamic multileaf collimator (MLC) motion tracking with complex intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) fields, target motion perpendicular to the MLC leaf travel direction can cause beam holds, which increase beam delivery time by up to a factor of 4. As a means to balance delivery efficiency and accuracy, a moving average algorithm was incorporated into a dynamic MLC motion tracking system (i.e., moving average tracking) to account for target motion perpendicular to the MLC leaf travel direction. The experimental investigation of the moving average algorithm compared with real-time tracking and no compensation beam delivery is described. The properties of the moving average algorithm were measured and compared with those of real-time tracking (dynamic MLC motion tracking accounting for both target motion parallel and perpendicular to the leaf travel direction) and no compensation beam delivery. The algorithm was investigated using a synthetic motion trace with a baseline drift and four patient-measured 3D tumor motion traces representing regular and irregular motions with varying baseline drifts. Each motion trace was reproduced by a moving platform. The delivery efficiency, geometric accuracy, and dosimetric accuracy were evaluated for conformal, step-and-shoot IMRT, and dynamic sliding window IMRT treatment plans using the synthetic and patient motion traces. The dosimetric accuracy was quantified via a tgamma-test with a 3%/3 mm criterion. The delivery efficiency ranged from 89 to 100% for moving average tracking, 26%-100% for real-time tracking, and 100% (by definition) for no compensation. The root-mean-square geometric error ranged from 3.2 to 4.0 mm for moving average tracking, 0.7-1.1 mm for real-time tracking, and 3.7-7.2 mm for no compensation. The percentage of dosimetric points failing the gamma-test ranged from 4 to 30% for moving average tracking, 0%-23% for real-time tracking, and 10%-47% for no compensation. The delivery efficiency of

  8. Quantifying walking and standing behaviour of dairy cows using a moving average based on output from an accelerometer

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Lars Relund; Pedersen, Asger Roer; Herskin, Mette S

    2010-01-01

    in sequences of approximately 20 s for the period of 10 min. Afterwards the cows were stimulated to move/lift the legs while standing in a cubicle. The behaviour was video recorded, and the recordings were analysed second by second for walking and standing behaviour as well as the number of steps taken....... Various algorithms for predicting walking/standing status were compared. The algorithms were all based on a limit of a moving average calculated by using one of two outputs of the accelerometer, either a motion index or a step count, and applied over periods of 3 or 5 s. Furthermore, we investigated...... the effect of additionally applying the rule: a walking period must last at least 5 s. The results indicate that the lowest misclassification rate (10%) of walking and standing was obtained based on the step count with a moving average of 3 s and with the rule applied. However, the rate of misclassification...

  9. Application of SARIMA model to forecasting monthly flows in Waterval River, South Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tadesse Kassahun Birhanu

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Knowledge of future river flow information is fundamental for development and management of a river system. In this study, Waterval River flow was forecasted by SARIMA model using GRETL statistical software. Mean monthly flows from 1960 to 2016 were used for modelling and forecasting. Different unit root and Mann–Kendall trend analysis proved the stationarity of the observed flow time series. Based on seasonally differenced correlogram characteristics, different SARIMA models were evaluated; their parameters were optimized, and diagnostic check up of forecasts was made using white noise and heteroscedasticity tests. Finally, based on minimum Akaike Information (AI and Hannan–Quinn (HQ criteria, SARIMA (3, 0, 2 x (3, 1, 312 model was selected for Waterval River flow forecasting. Comparison of forecast performance of SARIMA models with that of computational intelligent forecasting techniques was recommended for future study.

  10. 1 A Comparison of the ANFIS Model with SARIMA for the ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2015-03-05

    Mar 5, 2015 ... namely seasonal ARIMA (SARIMA) and Adaptive Network-Based Fuzzy. Inference System (ANFIS) ... Dharmaratne (1995) applied the ARIMA model to forecast tourist arrivals in Barbados. ..... type of climate. It is observed that ...

  11. On critical cases in limit theory for stationary increments Lévy driven moving averages

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Basse-O'Connor, Andreas; Podolskij, Mark

    averages. The limit theory heavily depends on the interplay between the given order of the increments, the considered power, the Blumenthal-Getoor index of the driving pure jump Lévy process L and the behavior of the kernel function g at 0. In this work we will study the critical cases, which were...

  12. ANALISIS CURAH HUJAN DAN DEBIT MODEL SWAT DENGAN METODE MOVING AVERAGE DI DAS CILIWUNG HULU

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Defri Satiya Zuma

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Watershed can be regarded as a hydrological system that has a function in transforming rainwater as an input into outputs such as flow and sediment. The transformation of inputs into outputs has specific forms and properties. The transformation involves many processes, including processes occurred on the surface of the land, river basins, in soil and aquifer. This study aimed to apply the SWAT model  in  Ciliwung Hulu Watershed, asses the effect of average rainfall  on 3 days, 5 days, 7 days and 10 days of the hydrological characteristics in Ciliwung Hulu Watershed. The correlation coefficient (r between rainfall and discharge was positive, it indicated that there was an unidirectional relationship between rainfall and discharge in the upstream, midstream and downstream of the watershed. The upper limit ratio of discharge had a downward trend from upstream to downstream, while the lower limit ratio of  discharge had an upward trend from upstream to downstream. It showed that the discharge peak in Ciliwung  Hulu Watershed from upstream to downstream had a downward trend while the baseflow from upstream to downstream had an upward trend. It showed that the upstream of Ciliwung Hulu Watershed had the highest ratio of discharge peak  and baseflow so it needs the soil and water conservations and technical civil measures. The discussion concluded that the SWAT model could be well applied in Ciliwung Hulu Watershed, the most affecting average rainfall on the hydrological characteristics was the average rainfall of 10 days. On average  rainfall of 10 days, all components had contributed maximally for river discharge.

  13. Canada’s 2010 Tax Competitiveness Ranking: Moving to the Average but Biased Against Services

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Duanjie Chen

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available For the first time since 1975 (the year Canada’s marginal effective tax rates were first measured, Canada has become the most tax-competitive country among G-7 states with respect to taxation of capital investment. Even more remarkably, Canada accomplished this feat within a mere six years, having previously been the least taxcompetitive G-7 member. Even in comparison to strongly growing emerging economies, Canada’s 2010 marginal effective tax rate on capital is still above average. The planned reductions in federal and provincial corporate taxes by 2013 will reduce Canada’s effective tax rate on new investments to 18.4 percent, below the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD 2010 average and close to the average of the 50 non-OECD countries studied. This remarkable change in Canada’s tax competitiveness must be maintained in the coming years, as countries are continually reducing their business taxation despite the recent fiscal pressures arising from the 2008-9 downturn in the world economy. Many countries have forged ahead with significant reforms designed to increase tax competitiveness and improve tax neutrality including Greece, Israel, Japan, New Zealand, Taiwan and the United Kingdom. The continuing bias in Canada’s corporate income tax structure favouring manufacturing and processing business warrants close scrutiny. Measured by the difference between the marginal effective tax rate on capital between manufacturing and the broad range of service sectors, Canada has the greatest gap in tax burdens between manufacturing and services among OECD countries. Surprisingly, preferential tax treatment (such as fast write-off and investment tax credits favouring only manufacturing and processing activities has become the norm in Canada, although it does not exist in most developed economies.

  14. Consensus in averager-copier-voter networks of moving dynamical agents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shang, Yilun

    2017-02-01

    This paper deals with a hybrid opinion dynamics comprising averager, copier, and voter agents, which ramble as random walkers on a spatial network. Agents exchange information following some deterministic and stochastic protocols if they reside at the same site in the same time. Based on stochastic stability of Markov chains, sufficient conditions guaranteeing consensus in the sense of almost sure convergence have been obtained. The ultimate consensus state is identified in the form of an ergodicity result. Simulation studies are performed to validate the effectiveness and availability of our theoretical results. The existence/non-existence of voters and the proportion of them are unveiled to play key roles during the consensus-reaching process.

  15. Percentiles of the run-length distribution of the Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (EWMA) median chart

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, K. L.; Chong, Z. L.; Khoo, M. B. C.; Teoh, W. L.; Teh, S. Y.

    2017-09-01

    Quality control is crucial in a wide variety of fields, as it can help to satisfy customers’ needs and requirements by enhancing and improving the products and services to a superior quality level. The EWMA median chart was proposed as a useful alternative to the EWMA \\bar{X} chart because the median-type chart is robust against contamination, outliers or small deviation from the normality assumption compared to the traditional \\bar{X}-type chart. To provide a complete understanding of the run-length distribution, the percentiles of the run-length distribution should be investigated rather than depending solely on the average run length (ARL) performance measure. This is because interpretation depending on the ARL alone can be misleading, as the process mean shifts change according to the skewness and shape of the run-length distribution, varying from almost symmetric when the magnitude of the mean shift is large, to highly right-skewed when the process is in-control (IC) or slightly out-of-control (OOC). Before computing the percentiles of the run-length distribution, optimal parameters of the EWMA median chart will be obtained by minimizing the OOC ARL, while retaining the IC ARL at a desired value.

  16. On the speed towards the mean for continuous time autoregressive moving average processes with applications to energy markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benth, Fred Espen; Taib, Che Mohd Imran Che

    2013-01-01

    We extend the concept of half life of an Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process to Lévy-driven continuous-time autoregressive moving average processes with stochastic volatility. The half life becomes state dependent, and we analyze its properties in terms of the characteristics of the process. An empirical example based on daily temperatures observed in Petaling Jaya, Malaysia, is presented, where the proposed model is estimated and the distribution of the half life is simulated. The stationarity of the dynamics yield futures prices which asymptotically tend to constant at an exponential rate when time to maturity goes to infinity. The rate is characterized by the eigenvalues of the dynamics. An alternative description of this convergence can be given in terms of our concept of half life. - Highlights: • The concept of half life is extended to Levy-driven continuous time autoregressive moving average processes • The dynamics of Malaysian temperatures are modeled using a continuous time autoregressive model with stochastic volatility • Forward prices on temperature become constant when time to maturity tends to infinity • Convergence in time to maturity is at an exponential rate given by the eigenvalues of the model temperature model

  17. Short-term forecasting of the chloride content in the mineral waters of the Ustroń Health Resort using SARIMA and Holt-Winters models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dąbrowska Dominika

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The Ustroń S.A. Health Resort (southern Poland uses iodide-bromide mineral waters taken from Middle and Upper Devonian limestones and dolomites with a mineralisation range of 110-130 g/dm3 for curative purposes. Two boreholes - U-3 and U3-A drilled in the early 1970s were exploited. The aim of this paper is to estimate changes in mineral water quality of the Ustroń Health Resort by taking into consideration chloride content in the water from the U-3 borehole. The data has included the results of monthly analyses of chlorides from 2005 to 2015 during the tests carried out by the Mining Department of the Health Resort. The triple exponential smoothing (ETS function and the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA method of modelling time series were used for the calculations. The ability to properly forecast mineral water quality can result in a good status of the exploitation borehole and a limited number of failures in the exploitation system. Because of the good management of health resorts, it is possible to acquire more satisfied customers. The main goal of the article involves the real-time forecast accuracy, obtained results show that the proposed methods are effective for such situations. Presented methods made it possible to obtain a 24-month point and interval forecast. The results of these analyses indicate that the chloride content is forecast to be in the range of 72 to 83 g/l from 2015 to 2017. While comparing the two methods of analysis, a narrower range of forecast values and, therefore, greater accuracy were obtained for the ETS function. The good performance of the ETS model highlights its utility compared with complicated physically based numerical models.

  18. The application of moving average control charts for evaluating magnetic field quality on an individual magnet basis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pollock, D.A.; Gunst, R.F.; Schucany, W.R.

    1994-01-01

    SSC Collider Dipole Magnet field quality specifications define limits of variation for the population mean (Systematic) and standard deviation (RMS deviation) of allowed and unallowed multipole coefficients generated by the full collection of dipole magnets throughout the Collider operating cycle. A fundamental Quality Control issue is how to determine the acceptability of individual magnets during production, in other words taken one at a time and compared to the population parameters. Provided that the normal distribution assumptions hold, the random variation of multipoles for individual magnets may be evaluated by comparing the measured results to ± 3 x RMS tolerance, centered on the design nominal. To evaluate the local and cumulative systematic variation of the magnets against the distribution tolerance, individual magnet results need to be combined with others that come before it. This paper demonstrates a Statistical Quality Control method (the Unweighted Moving Average control chart) to evaluate individual magnet performance and process stability against population tolerances. The DESY/HERA Dipole cold skew quadrupole measurements for magnets in production order are used to evaluate non-stationarity of the mean over time for the cumulative set of magnets, as well as for a moving sample

  19. Power Based Phase-Locked Loop Under Adverse Conditions with Moving Average Filter for Single-Phase System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Menxi Xie

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available High performance synchronization methord is citical for grid connected power converter. For single-phase system, power based phase-locked loop(pPLL uses a multiplier as phase detector(PD. As single-phase grid voltage is distorted, the phase error information contains ac disturbances oscillating at integer multiples of fundamental frequency which lead to detection error. This paper presents a new scheme based on moving average filter(MAF applied in-loop of pPLL. The signal characteristic of phase error is dissussed in detail. A predictive rule is adopted to compensate the delay induced by MAF, thus achieving fast dynamic response. In the case of frequency deviate from nomimal, estimated frequency is fed back to adjust the filter window length of MAF and buffer size of predictive rule. Simulation and experimental results show that proposed PLL achieves good performance under adverse grid conditions.

  20. Simple Moving Voltage Average Incremental Conductance MPPT Technique with Direct Control Method under Nonuniform Solar Irradiance Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amjad Ali

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available A new simple moving voltage average (SMVA technique with fixed step direct control incremental conductance method is introduced to reduce solar photovoltaic voltage (VPV oscillation under nonuniform solar irradiation conditions. To evaluate and validate the performance of the proposed SMVA method in comparison with the conventional fixed step direct control incremental conductance method under extreme conditions, different scenarios were simulated. Simulation results show that in most cases SMVA gives better results with more stability as compared to traditional fixed step direct control INC with faster tracking system along with reduction in sustained oscillations and possesses fast steady state response and robustness. The steady state oscillations are almost eliminated because of extremely small dP/dV around maximum power (MP, which verify that the proposed method is suitable for standalone PV system under extreme weather conditions not only in terms of bus voltage stability but also in overall system efficiency.

  1. Neural networks prediction and fault diagnosis applied to stationary and non stationary ARMA (Autoregressive moving average) modeled time series

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marseguerra, M.; Minoggio, S.; Rossi, A.; Zio, E.

    1992-01-01

    The correlated noise affecting many industrial plants under stationary or cyclo-stationary conditions - nuclear reactors included -has been successfully modeled by autoregressive moving average (ARMA) due to the versatility of this technique. The relatively recent neural network methods have similar features and much effort is being devoted to exploring their usefulness in forecasting and control. Identifying a signal by means of an ARMA model gives rise to the problem of selecting its correct order. Similar difficulties must be faced when applying neural network methods and, specifically, particular care must be given to the setting up of the appropriate network topology, the data normalization procedure and the learning code. In the present paper the capability of some neural networks of learning ARMA and seasonal ARMA processes is investigated. The results of the tested cases look promising since they indicate that the neural networks learn the underlying process with relative ease so that their forecasting capability may represent a convenient fault diagnosis tool. (Author)

  2. Dual-component model of respiratory motion based on the periodic autoregressive moving average (periodic ARMA) method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McCall, K C; Jeraj, R

    2007-01-01

    A new approach to the problem of modelling and predicting respiration motion has been implemented. This is a dual-component model, which describes the respiration motion as a non-periodic time series superimposed onto a periodic waveform. A periodic autoregressive moving average algorithm has been used to define a mathematical model of the periodic and non-periodic components of the respiration motion. The periodic components of the motion were found by projecting multiple inhale-exhale cycles onto a common subspace. The component of the respiration signal that is left after removing this periodicity is a partially autocorrelated time series and was modelled as an autoregressive moving average (ARMA) process. The accuracy of the periodic ARMA model with respect to fluctuation in amplitude and variation in length of cycles has been assessed. A respiration phantom was developed to simulate the inter-cycle variations seen in free-breathing and coached respiration patterns. At ±14% variability in cycle length and maximum amplitude of motion, the prediction errors were 4.8% of the total motion extent for a 0.5 s ahead prediction, and 9.4% at 1.0 s lag. The prediction errors increased to 11.6% at 0.5 s and 21.6% at 1.0 s when the respiration pattern had ±34% variations in both these parameters. Our results have shown that the accuracy of the periodic ARMA model is more strongly dependent on the variations in cycle length than the amplitude of the respiration cycles

  3. Short-term electricity prices forecasting based on support vector regression and Auto-regressive integrated moving average modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Che Jinxing; Wang Jianzhou

    2010-01-01

    In this paper, we present the use of different mathematical models to forecast electricity price under deregulated power. A successful prediction tool of electricity price can help both power producers and consumers plan their bidding strategies. Inspired by that the support vector regression (SVR) model, with the ε-insensitive loss function, admits of the residual within the boundary values of ε-tube, we propose a hybrid model that combines both SVR and Auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models to take advantage of the unique strength of SVR and ARIMA models in nonlinear and linear modeling, which is called SVRARIMA. A nonlinear analysis of the time-series indicates the convenience of nonlinear modeling, the SVR is applied to capture the nonlinear patterns. ARIMA models have been successfully applied in solving the residuals regression estimation problems. The experimental results demonstrate that the model proposed outperforms the existing neural-network approaches, the traditional ARIMA models and other hybrid models based on the root mean square error and mean absolute percentage error.

  4. Autoregressive-moving-average hidden Markov model for vision-based fall prediction-An application for walker robot.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taghvaei, Sajjad; Jahanandish, Mohammad Hasan; Kosuge, Kazuhiro

    2017-01-01

    Population aging of the societies requires providing the elderly with safe and dependable assistive technologies in daily life activities. Improving the fall detection algorithms can play a major role in achieving this goal. This article proposes a real-time fall prediction algorithm based on the acquired visual data of a user with walking assistive system from a depth sensor. In the lack of a coupled dynamic model of the human and the assistive walker a hybrid "system identification-machine learning" approach is used. An autoregressive-moving-average (ARMA) model is fitted on the time-series walking data to forecast the upcoming states, and a hidden Markov model (HMM) based classifier is built on the top of the ARMA model to predict falling in the upcoming time frames. The performance of the algorithm is evaluated through experiments with four subjects including an experienced physiotherapist while using a walker robot in five different falling scenarios; namely, fall forward, fall down, fall back, fall left, and fall right. The algorithm successfully predicts the fall with a rate of 84.72%.

  5. Long-Term Prediction of Emergency Department Revenue and Visitor Volume Using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chieh-Fan Chen

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available This study analyzed meteorological, clinical and economic factors in terms of their effects on monthly ED revenue and visitor volume. Monthly data from January 1, 2005 to September 30, 2009 were analyzed. Spearman correlation and cross-correlation analyses were performed to identify the correlation between each independent variable, ED revenue, and visitor volume. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA model was used to quantify the relationship between each independent variable, ED revenue, and visitor volume. The accuracies were evaluated by comparing model forecasts to actual values with mean absolute percentage of error. Sensitivity of prediction errors to model training time was also evaluated. The ARIMA models indicated that mean maximum temperature, relative humidity, rainfall, non-trauma, and trauma visits may correlate positively with ED revenue, but mean minimum temperature may correlate negatively with ED revenue. Moreover, mean minimum temperature and stock market index fluctuation may correlate positively with trauma visitor volume. Mean maximum temperature, relative humidity and stock market index fluctuation may correlate positively with non-trauma visitor volume. Mean maximum temperature and relative humidity may correlate positively with pediatric visitor volume, but mean minimum temperature may correlate negatively with pediatric visitor volume. The model also performed well in forecasting revenue and visitor volume.

  6. MOTION ARTIFACT REDUCTION IN FUNCTIONAL NEAR INFRARED SPECTROSCOPY SIGNALS BY AUTOREGRESSIVE MOVING AVERAGE MODELING BASED KALMAN FILTERING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MEHDI AMIAN

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Functional near infrared spectroscopy (fNIRS is a technique that is used for noninvasive measurement of the oxyhemoglobin (HbO2 and deoxyhemoglobin (HHb concentrations in the brain tissue. Since the ratio of the concentration of these two agents is correlated with the neuronal activity, fNIRS can be used for the monitoring and quantifying the cortical activity. The portability of fNIRS makes it a good candidate for studies involving subject's movement. The fNIRS measurements, however, are sensitive to artifacts generated by subject's head motion. This makes fNIRS signals less effective in such applications. In this paper, the autoregressive moving average (ARMA modeling of the fNIRS signal is proposed for state-space representation of the signal which is then fed to the Kalman filter for estimating the motionless signal from motion corrupted signal. Results are compared to the autoregressive model (AR based approach, which has been done previously, and show that the ARMA models outperform AR models. We attribute it to the richer structure, containing more terms indeed, of ARMA than AR. We show that the signal to noise ratio (SNR is about 2 dB higher for ARMA based method.

  7. O Moving Average Convergence Convergence-Divergence como Ferramenta para a Decisão de Investimentos no Mercado de Ações

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rodrigo Silva Vidotto

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available The increase in the number of investors at Bovespa since 2000 is due to stabilized inflation and falling interest rates. The use of tools that assist investors in selling and buying stocks is very important in a competitive and risky market. The technical analysis of stocks is used to search for trends in the movements of share prices and therefore indicate a suitable moment to buy or sell stocks. Among these technical indicators is the Moving Average Convergence-Divergence [MACD], which uses the concept of moving average in its equation and is considered by financial analysts as a simple tool to operate and analyze. This article aims to assess the effectiveness of the use of the MACD to indicate the moment to purchase and sell stocks in five companies – selected at random – a total of ninety companies in the Bovespa New Market and analyze the profitability gained during 2006, taking as a reference the valorization of the Ibovespa exchange in that year. The results show that the cumulative average return of the five companies was of 26.7% against a cumulative average return of 0.90% for Ibovespa.

  8. Experimental validation of heterogeneity-corrected dose-volume prescription on respiratory-averaged CT images in stereotactic body radiotherapy for moving tumors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nakamura, Mitsuhiro; Miyabe, Yuki; Matsuo, Yukinori; Kamomae, Takeshi; Nakata, Manabu; Yano, Shinsuke; Sawada, Akira; Mizowaki, Takashi; Hiraoka, Masahiro

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to experimentally assess the validity of heterogeneity-corrected dose-volume prescription on respiratory-averaged computed tomography (RACT) images in stereotactic body radiotherapy (SBRT) for moving tumors. Four-dimensional computed tomography (CT) data were acquired while a dynamic anthropomorphic thorax phantom with a solitary target moved. Motion pattern was based on cos (t) with a constant respiration period of 4.0 sec along the longitudinal axis of the CT couch. The extent of motion (A 1 ) was set in the range of 0.0–12.0 mm at 3.0-mm intervals. Treatment planning with the heterogeneity-corrected dose-volume prescription was designed on RACT images. A new commercially available Monte Carlo algorithm of well-commissioned 6-MV photon beam was used for dose calculation. Dosimetric effects of intrafractional tumor motion were then investigated experimentally under the same conditions as 4D CT simulation using the dynamic anthropomorphic thorax phantom, films, and an ionization chamber. The passing rate of γ index was 98.18%, with the criteria of 3 mm/3%. The dose error between the planned and the measured isocenter dose in moving condition was within ± 0.7%. From the dose area histograms on the film, the mean ± standard deviation of the dose covering 100% of the cross section of the target was 102.32 ± 1.20% (range, 100.59–103.49%). By contrast, the irradiated areas receiving more than 95% dose for A 1 = 12 mm were 1.46 and 1.33 times larger than those for A 1 = 0 mm in the coronal and sagittal planes, respectively. This phantom study demonstrated that the cross section of the target received 100% dose under moving conditions in both the coronal and sagittal planes, suggesting that the heterogeneity-corrected dose-volume prescription on RACT images is acceptable in SBRT for moving tumors.

  9. An Estimation of the Likelihood of Significant Eruptions During 2000-2009 Using Poisson Statistics on Two-Point Moving Averages of the Volcanic Time Series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Robert M.

    2001-01-01

    Since 1750, the number of cataclysmic volcanic eruptions (volcanic explosivity index (VEI)>=4) per decade spans 2-11, with 96 percent located in the tropics and extra-tropical Northern Hemisphere. A two-point moving average of the volcanic time series has higher values since the 1860's than before, being 8.00 in the 1910's (the highest value) and 6.50 in the 1980's, the highest since the 1910's peak. Because of the usual behavior of the first difference of the two-point moving averages, one infers that its value for the 1990's will measure approximately 6.50 +/- 1, implying that approximately 7 +/- 4 cataclysmic volcanic eruptions should be expected during the present decade (2000-2009). Because cataclysmic volcanic eruptions (especially those having VEI>=5) nearly always have been associated with short-term episodes of global cooling, the occurrence of even one might confuse our ability to assess the effects of global warming. Poisson probability distributions reveal that the probability of one or more events with a VEI>=4 within the next ten years is >99 percent. It is approximately 49 percent for an event with a VEI>=5, and 18 percent for an event with a VEI>=6. Hence, the likelihood that a climatically significant volcanic eruption will occur within the next ten years appears reasonably high.

  10. Comparing a recursive digital filter with the moving-average and sequential probability-ratio detection methods for SNM portal monitors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fehlau, P.E.

    1993-01-01

    The author compared a recursive digital filter proposed as a detection method for French special nuclear material monitors with the author's detection methods, which employ a moving-average scaler or a sequential probability-ratio test. Each of these nine test subjects repeatedly carried a test source through a walk-through portal monitor that had the same nuisance-alarm rate with each method. He found that the average detection probability for the test source is also the same for each method. However, the recursive digital filter may have on drawback: its exponentially decreasing response to past radiation intensity prolongs the impact of any interference from radiation sources of radiation-producing machinery. He also examined the influence of each test subject on the monitor's operation by measuring individual attenuation factors for background and source radiation, then ranked the subjects' attenuation factors against their individual probabilities for detecting the test source. The one inconsistent ranking was probably caused by that subject's unusually long stride when passing through the portal

  11. Autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model applied to quantification of cerebral blood flow using dynamic susceptibility contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murase, Kenya; Yamazaki, Youichi; Shinohara, Masaaki

    2003-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to investigate the feasibility of the autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model for quantification of cerebral blood flow (CBF) with dynamic susceptibility contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (DSC-MRI) in comparison with deconvolution analysis based on singular value decomposition (DA-SVD). Using computer simulations, we generated a time-dependent concentration of the contrast agent in the volume of interest (VOI) from the arterial input function (AIF) modeled as a gamma-variate function under various CBFs, cerebral blood volumes and signal-to-noise ratios (SNRs) for three different types of residue function (exponential, triangular, and box-shaped). We also considered the effects of delay and dispersion in AIF. The ARMA model and DA-SVD were used to estimate CBF values from the simulated concentration-time curves in the VOI and AIFs, and the estimated values were compared with the assumed values. We found that the CBF value estimated by the ARMA model was more sensitive to the SNR and the delay in AIF than that obtained by DA-SVD. Although the ARMA model considerably overestimated CBF at low SNRs, it estimated the CBF more accurately than did DA-SVD at high SNRs for the exponential or triangular residue function. We believe this study will contribute to an understanding of the usefulness and limitations of the ARMA model when applied to quantification of CBF with DSC-MRI. (author)

  12. The moving-window Bayesian maximum entropy framework: estimation of PM(2.5) yearly average concentration across the contiguous United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akita, Yasuyuki; Chen, Jiu-Chiuan; Serre, Marc L

    2012-09-01

    Geostatistical methods are widely used in estimating long-term exposures for epidemiological studies on air pollution, despite their limited capabilities to handle spatial non-stationarity over large geographic domains and the uncertainty associated with missing monitoring data. We developed a moving-window (MW) Bayesian maximum entropy (BME) method and applied this framework to estimate fine particulate matter (PM(2.5)) yearly average concentrations over the contiguous US. The MW approach accounts for the spatial non-stationarity, while the BME method rigorously processes the uncertainty associated with data missingness in the air-monitoring system. In the cross-validation analyses conducted on a set of randomly selected complete PM(2.5) data in 2003 and on simulated data with different degrees of missing data, we demonstrate that the MW approach alone leads to at least 17.8% reduction in mean square error (MSE) in estimating the yearly PM(2.5). Moreover, the MWBME method further reduces the MSE by 8.4-43.7%, with the proportion of incomplete data increased from 18.3% to 82.0%. The MWBME approach leads to significant reductions in estimation error and thus is recommended for epidemiological studies investigating the effect of long-term exposure to PM(2.5) across large geographical domains with expected spatial non-stationarity.

  13. The moving-window Bayesian Maximum Entropy framework: Estimation of PM2.5 yearly average concentration across the contiguous United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akita, Yasuyuki; Chen, Jiu-Chiuan; Serre, Marc L.

    2013-01-01

    Geostatistical methods are widely used in estimating long-term exposures for air pollution epidemiological studies, despite their limited capabilities to handle spatial non-stationarity over large geographic domains and uncertainty associated with missing monitoring data. We developed a moving-window (MW) Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) method and applied this framework to estimate fine particulate matter (PM2.5) yearly average concentrations over the contiguous U.S. The MW approach accounts for the spatial non-stationarity, while the BME method rigorously processes the uncertainty associated with data missingnees in the air monitoring system. In the cross-validation analyses conducted on a set of randomly selected complete PM2.5 data in 2003 and on simulated data with different degrees of missing data, we demonstrate that the MW approach alone leads to at least 17.8% reduction in mean square error (MSE) in estimating the yearly PM2.5. Moreover, the MWBME method further reduces the MSE by 8.4% to 43.7% with the proportion of incomplete data increased from 18.3% to 82.0%. The MWBME approach leads to significant reductions in estimation error and thus is recommended for epidemiological studies investigating the effect of long-term exposure to PM2.5 across large geographical domains with expected spatial non-stationarity. PMID:22739679

  14. Middle and long-term prediction of UT1-UTC based on combination of Gray Model and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jia, Song; Xu, Tian-he; Sun, Zhang-zhen; Li, Jia-jing

    2017-02-01

    UT1-UTC is an important part of the Earth Orientation Parameters (EOP). The high-precision predictions of UT1-UTC play a key role in practical applications of deep space exploration, spacecraft tracking and satellite navigation and positioning. In this paper, a new prediction method with combination of Gray Model (GM(1, 1)) and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) is developed. The main idea is as following. Firstly, the UT1-UTC data are preprocessed by removing the leap second and Earth's zonal harmonic tidal to get UT1R-TAI data. Periodic terms are estimated and removed by the least square to get UT2R-TAI. Then the linear terms of UT2R-TAI data are modeled by the GM(1, 1), and the residual terms are modeled by the ARIMA. Finally, the UT2R-TAI prediction can be performed based on the combined model of GM(1, 1) and ARIMA, and the UT1-UTC predictions are obtained by adding the corresponding periodic terms, leap second correction and the Earth's zonal harmonic tidal correction. The results show that the proposed model can be used to predict UT1-UTC effectively with higher middle and long-term (from 32 to 360 days) accuracy than those of LS + AR, LS + MAR and WLS + MAR.

  15. Improved Multiscale Entropy Technique with Nearest-Neighbor Moving-Average Kernel for Nonlinear and Nonstationary Short-Time Biomedical Signal Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. P. Arunachalam

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Analysis of biomedical signals can yield invaluable information for prognosis, diagnosis, therapy evaluation, risk assessment, and disease prevention which is often recorded as short time series data that challenges existing complexity classification algorithms such as Shannon entropy (SE and other techniques. The purpose of this study was to improve previously developed multiscale entropy (MSE technique by incorporating nearest-neighbor moving-average kernel, which can be used for analysis of nonlinear and non-stationary short time series physiological data. The approach was tested for robustness with respect to noise analysis using simulated sinusoidal and ECG waveforms. Feasibility of MSE to discriminate between normal sinus rhythm (NSR and atrial fibrillation (AF was tested on a single-lead ECG. In addition, the MSE algorithm was applied to identify pivot points of rotors that were induced in ex vivo isolated rabbit hearts. The improved MSE technique robustly estimated the complexity of the signal compared to that of SE with various noises, discriminated NSR and AF on single-lead ECG, and precisely identified the pivot points of ex vivo rotors by providing better contrast between the rotor core and the peripheral region. The improved MSE technique can provide efficient complexity analysis of variety of nonlinear and nonstationary short-time biomedical signals.

  16. [The trial of business data analysis at the Department of Radiology by constructing the auto-regressive integrated moving-average (ARIMA) model].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tani, Yuji; Ogasawara, Katsuhiko

    2012-01-01

    This study aimed to contribute to the management of a healthcare organization by providing management information using time-series analysis of business data accumulated in the hospital information system, which has not been utilized thus far. In this study, we examined the performance of the prediction method using the auto-regressive integrated moving-average (ARIMA) model, using the business data obtained at the Radiology Department. We made the model using the data used for analysis, which was the number of radiological examinations in the past 9 years, and we predicted the number of radiological examinations in the last 1 year. Then, we compared the actual value with the forecast value. We were able to establish that the performance prediction method was simple and cost-effective by using free software. In addition, we were able to build the simple model by pre-processing the removal of trend components using the data. The difference between predicted values and actual values was 10%; however, it was more important to understand the chronological change rather than the individual time-series values. Furthermore, our method was highly versatile and adaptable compared to the general time-series data. Therefore, different healthcare organizations can use our method for the analysis and forecasting of their business data.

  17. Hybrid support vector regression and autoregressive integrated moving average models improved by particle swarm optimization for property crime rates forecasting with economic indicators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alwee, Razana; Shamsuddin, Siti Mariyam Hj; Sallehuddin, Roselina

    2013-01-01

    Crimes forecasting is an important area in the field of criminology. Linear models, such as regression and econometric models, are commonly applied in crime forecasting. However, in real crimes data, it is common that the data consists of both linear and nonlinear components. A single model may not be sufficient to identify all the characteristics of the data. The purpose of this study is to introduce a hybrid model that combines support vector regression (SVR) and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) to be applied in crime rates forecasting. SVR is very robust with small training data and high-dimensional problem. Meanwhile, ARIMA has the ability to model several types of time series. However, the accuracy of the SVR model depends on values of its parameters, while ARIMA is not robust to be applied to small data sets. Therefore, to overcome this problem, particle swarm optimization is used to estimate the parameters of the SVR and ARIMA models. The proposed hybrid model is used to forecast the property crime rates of the United State based on economic indicators. The experimental results show that the proposed hybrid model is able to produce more accurate forecasting results as compared to the individual models.

  18. Hybrid Support Vector Regression and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Models Improved by Particle Swarm Optimization for Property Crime Rates Forecasting with Economic Indicators

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Razana Alwee

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Crimes forecasting is an important area in the field of criminology. Linear models, such as regression and econometric models, are commonly applied in crime forecasting. However, in real crimes data, it is common that the data consists of both linear and nonlinear components. A single model may not be sufficient to identify all the characteristics of the data. The purpose of this study is to introduce a hybrid model that combines support vector regression (SVR and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA to be applied in crime rates forecasting. SVR is very robust with small training data and high-dimensional problem. Meanwhile, ARIMA has the ability to model several types of time series. However, the accuracy of the SVR model depends on values of its parameters, while ARIMA is not robust to be applied to small data sets. Therefore, to overcome this problem, particle swarm optimization is used to estimate the parameters of the SVR and ARIMA models. The proposed hybrid model is used to forecast the property crime rates of the United State based on economic indicators. The experimental results show that the proposed hybrid model is able to produce more accurate forecasting results as compared to the individual models.

  19. Application of a Combined Model with Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA and Generalized Regression Neural Network (GRNN in Forecasting Hepatitis Incidence in Heng County, China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wudi Wei

    Full Text Available Hepatitis is a serious public health problem with increasing cases and property damage in Heng County. It is necessary to develop a model to predict the hepatitis epidemic that could be useful for preventing this disease.The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA model and the generalized regression neural network (GRNN model were used to fit the incidence data from the Heng County CDC (Center for Disease Control and Prevention from January 2005 to December 2012. Then, the ARIMA-GRNN hybrid model was developed. The incidence data from January 2013 to December 2013 were used to validate the models. Several parameters, including mean absolute error (MAE, root mean square error (RMSE, mean absolute percentage error (MAPE and mean square error (MSE, were used to compare the performance among the three models.The morbidity of hepatitis from Jan 2005 to Dec 2012 has seasonal variation and slightly rising trend. The ARIMA(0,1,2(1,1,112 model was the most appropriate one with the residual test showing a white noise sequence. The smoothing factor of the basic GRNN model and the combined model was 1.8 and 0.07, respectively. The four parameters of the hybrid model were lower than those of the two single models in the validation. The parameters values of the GRNN model were the lowest in the fitting of the three models.The hybrid ARIMA-GRNN model showed better hepatitis incidence forecasting in Heng County than the single ARIMA model and the basic GRNN model. It is a potential decision-supportive tool for controlling hepatitis in Heng County.

  20. Using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models to predict and monitor the number of beds occupied during a SARS outbreak in a tertiary hospital in Singapore.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Earnest, Arul; Chen, Mark I; Ng, Donald; Sin, Leo Yee

    2005-05-11

    The main objective of this study is to apply autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models to make real-time predictions on the number of beds occupied in Tan Tock Seng Hospital, during the recent SARS outbreak. This is a retrospective study design. Hospital admission and occupancy data for isolation beds was collected from Tan Tock Seng hospital for the period 14th March 2003 to 31st May 2003. The main outcome measure was daily number of isolation beds occupied by SARS patients. Among the covariates considered were daily number of people screened, daily number of people admitted (including observation, suspect and probable cases) and days from the most recent significant event discovery. We utilized the following strategy for the analysis. Firstly, we split the outbreak data into two. Data from 14th March to 21st April 2003 was used for model development. We used structural ARIMA models in an attempt to model the number of beds occupied. Estimation is via the maximum likelihood method using the Kalman filter. For the ARIMA model parameters, we considered the simplest parsimonious lowest order model. We found that the ARIMA (1,0,3) model was able to describe and predict the number of beds occupied during the SARS outbreak well. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for the training set and validation set were 5.7% and 8.6% respectively, which we found was reasonable for use in the hospital setting. Furthermore, the model also provided three-day forecasts of the number of beds required. Total number of admissions and probable cases admitted on the previous day were also found to be independent prognostic factors of bed occupancy. ARIMA models provide useful tools for administrators and clinicians in planning for real-time bed capacity during an outbreak of an infectious disease such as SARS. The model could well be used in planning for bed-capacity during outbreaks of other infectious diseases as well.

  1. Using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA models to predict and monitor the number of beds occupied during a SARS outbreak in a tertiary hospital in Singapore

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Earnest Arul

    2005-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The main objective of this study is to apply autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA models to make real-time predictions on the number of beds occupied in Tan Tock Seng Hospital, during the recent SARS outbreak. Methods This is a retrospective study design. Hospital admission and occupancy data for isolation beds was collected from Tan Tock Seng hospital for the period 14th March 2003 to 31st May 2003. The main outcome measure was daily number of isolation beds occupied by SARS patients. Among the covariates considered were daily number of people screened, daily number of people admitted (including observation, suspect and probable cases and days from the most recent significant event discovery. We utilized the following strategy for the analysis. Firstly, we split the outbreak data into two. Data from 14th March to 21st April 2003 was used for model development. We used structural ARIMA models in an attempt to model the number of beds occupied. Estimation is via the maximum likelihood method using the Kalman filter. For the ARIMA model parameters, we considered the simplest parsimonious lowest order model. Results We found that the ARIMA (1,0,3 model was able to describe and predict the number of beds occupied during the SARS outbreak well. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE for the training set and validation set were 5.7% and 8.6% respectively, which we found was reasonable for use in the hospital setting. Furthermore, the model also provided three-day forecasts of the number of beds required. Total number of admissions and probable cases admitted on the previous day were also found to be independent prognostic factors of bed occupancy. Conclusion ARIMA models provide useful tools for administrators and clinicians in planning for real-time bed capacity during an outbreak of an infectious disease such as SARS. The model could well be used in planning for bed-capacity during outbreaks of other infectious

  2. Studying the effect of meteorological factors on the SO2 and PM10 pollution levels with refined versions of the SARIMA model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Voynikova, D. S., E-mail: desi-sl2000@yahoo.com; Gocheva-Ilieva, S. G., E-mail: snegocheva@yahoo.com; Ivanov, A. V., E-mail: aivanov-99@yahoo.com [Department of Applied Mathematics and Modeling, Faculty of Mathematics and Informatics, Paisii Hilendarski University of Plovdiv, 24 Tzar Assen str., 4000 Plovdiv (Bulgaria); Iliev, I. P., E-mail: iliev55@abv.bg [Department of Physics, Technical University – Plovdiv, 25 Tzanko Djusstabanov str., 4000 Plovdiv (Bulgaria)

    2015-10-28

    Numerous time series methods are used in environmental sciences allowing the detailed investigation of air pollution processes. The goal of this study is to present the empirical analysis of various aspects of stochastic modeling and in particular the ARIMA/SARIMA methods. The subject of investigation is air pollution in the town of Kardzhali, Bulgaria with 2 problematic pollutants – sulfur dioxide (SO2) and particulate matter (PM10). Various SARIMA Transfer Function models are built taking into account meteorological factors, data transformations and the use of different horizons selected to predict future levels of concentrations of the pollutants.

  3. Age differences in big five behavior averages and variabilities across the adult life span: moving beyond retrospective, global summary accounts of personality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noftle, Erik E; Fleeson, William

    2010-03-01

    In 3 intensive cross-sectional studies, age differences in behavior averages and variabilities were examined. Three questions were posed: Does variability differ among age groups? Does the sizable variability in young adulthood persist throughout the life span? Do past conclusions about trait development, based on trait questionnaires, hold up when actual behavior is examined? Three groups participated: young adults (18-23 years), middle-aged adults (35-55 years), and older adults (65-81 years). In 2 experience-sampling studies, participants reported their current behavior multiple times per day for 1- or 2-week spans. In a 3rd study, participants interacted in standardized laboratory activities on 8 occasions. First, results revealed a sizable amount of intraindividual variability in behavior for all adult groups, with average within-person standard deviations ranging from about half a point to well over 1 point on 6-point scales. Second, older adults were most variable in Openness, whereas young adults were most variable in Agreeableness and Emotional Stability. Third, most specific patterns of maturation-related age differences in actual behavior were more greatly pronounced and differently patterned than those revealed by the trait questionnaire method. When participants interacted in standardized situations, personality differences between young adults and middle-aged adults were larger, and older adults exhibited a more positive personality profile than they exhibited in their everyday lives.

  4. Moving beyond average values: assessing the night-to-night instability of sleep and arousal in DSM-IV-TR insomnia subtypes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sánchez-Ortuño, M Montserrat; Carney, Colleen E; Edinger, Jack D; Wyatt, James K; Harris, Andrea

    2011-04-01

    We explored differences between individuals with DSM-IV-TR diagnoses of primary insomnia (PI) and insomnia related to a mental disorder (IMD) by using serial measurements of self-reported sleep variables (sleep onset latency, SOL; wake after sleep onset, WASO; total sleep time, TST; sleep efficiency, SE), and visual analogue scale ratings of 2 forms of bedtime arousal (cognitive and emotional). Furthermore, we sought to examine the relationship between sleep and arousal within each diagnostic subgroup. Between-group and within-group comparisons. Duke and Rush University Medical Centers, USA. One hundred eighty-seven insomnia sufferers (126 women, average age 47.15 years) diagnosed by sleep specialists at 2 sleep centers as PI patients (n=126) and IMD patients (n=61). N/A. Multilevel models for sleep measures indicated that IMD displayed significantly more instability across nights in their TST (i.e., larger changes) than did PI patients. With respect to pre-sleep arousal, IMD patients exhibited higher mean levels of emotional arousal, as well as more instability on the nightly ratings of this measure. Within the PI group, correlational analyses revealed a moderate relationship between the 2 arousal variables and SOL (r values 0.29 and 0.26), whereas the corresponding correlations were negligible and statistically nonsignificant in the IMD group. We found a number of differences on nighttime variables between those diagnosed with primary insomnia and those diagnosed with insomnia related to a mental disorder. These differences imply different perpetuating mechanisms involved in their ongoing sleep difficulties. Additionally, they support the categorical distinctiveness and the concurrent validity of these insomnia subtypes.

  5. State Averages

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — A list of a variety of averages for each state or territory as well as the national average, including each quality measure, staffing, fine amount and number of...

  6. A landslide-quake detection algorithm with STA/LTA and diagnostic functions of moving average and scintillation index: A preliminary case study of the 2009 Typhoon Morakot in Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Yu-Jie; Lin, Guan-Wei

    2017-04-01

    Since 1999, Taiwan has experienced a rapid rise in the number of landslides, and the number even reached a peak after the 2009 Typhoon Morakot. Although it is proved that the ground-motion signals induced by slope processes could be recorded by seismograph, it is difficult to be distinguished from continuous seismic records due to the lack of distinct P and S waves. In this study, we combine three common seismic detectors including the short-term average/long-term average (STA/LTA) approach, and two diagnostic functions of moving average and scintillation index. Based on these detectors, we have established an auto-detection algorithm of landslide-quakes and the detection thresholds are defined to distinguish landslide-quake from earthquakes and background noises. To further improve the proposed detection algorithm, we apply it to seismic archives recorded by Broadband Array in Taiwan for Seismology (BATS) during the 2009 Typhoon Morakots and consequently the discrete landslide-quakes detected by the automatic algorithm are located. The detection algorithm show that the landslide-detection results are consistent with that of visual inspection and hence can be used to automatically monitor landslide-quakes.

  7. Applying Time Series Analysis Model to Temperature Data in Greenhouses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdelhafid Hasni

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available The objective of the research is to find an appropriate Seasonal Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA Model for fitting the inside air temperature (Tin of a naturally ventilated greenhouse under Mediterranean conditions by considering the minimum of Akaike Information Criterion (AIC. The results of fitting were as follows: the best SARIMA Model for fitting air temperature of greenhouse is SARIMA (1,0,0 (1,0,224.

  8. Treatment on outliers in UBJ-SARIMA models for forecasting dengue cases on age groups not eligible for vaccination in Baguio City, Philippines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magsakay, Clarenz B.; De Vera, Nora U.; Libatique, Criselda P.; Addawe, Rizavel C.; Addawe, Joel M.

    2017-11-01

    Dengue vaccination has become a breakthrough in the fight against dengue infection. This is however not applicable to all ages. Individuals from 0 to 8 years old and adults older than 45 years old remain susceptible to the vector-borne disease dengue. Forecasting future dengue cases accurately from susceptible age groups would aid in the efforts to prevent further increase in dengue infections. For the age groups of individuals not eligible for vaccination, the presence of outliers was observed and was treated using winsorization, square root, and logarithmic transformations to create a SARIMA model. The best model for the age group 0 to 8 years old was found to be ARIMA(13,1,0)(1,0,0)12 with 10 fixed variables using square root transformation with a 95% winsorization, and the best model for the age group older than 45 years old is ARIMA(7,1,0)(1,0,0)12 with 5 fixed variables using logarithmic transformation with 90% winsorization. These models are then used to forecast the monthly dengue cases for Baguio City for the age groups considered.

  9. Move up,Move out

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Guo Yan

    2007-01-01

    @@ China has already become the world's largest manufacturer of cement,copper and steel.Chinese producers have moved onto the world stage and dominated the global consumer market from textiles to electronics with amazing speed and efficiency.

  10. Estimation of pure moving average vector models | Usoro ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    International Journal of Natural and Applied Sciences. Journal Home · ABOUT THIS JOURNAL · Advanced Search · Current Issue · Archives · Journal Home > Vol 3, No 3 (2007) >. Log in or Register to get access to full text downloads. Username, Password, Remember me, or Register. DOWNLOAD FULL TEXT ...

  11. on the performance of Autoregressive Moving Average Polynomial

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Timothy Ademakinwa

    estimated using least squares and Newton Raphson iterative methods. To determine the order of the ... r is the degree of polynomial while j is the number of lag of the ..... use a real time series dataset, monthly rainfall and temperature series ...

  12. Neutron resonance averaging

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chrien, R.E.

    1986-10-01

    The principles of resonance averaging as applied to neutron capture reactions are described. Several illustrations of resonance averaging to problems of nuclear structure and the distribution of radiative strength in nuclei are provided. 30 refs., 12 figs

  13. On Averaging Rotations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gramkow, Claus

    1999-01-01

    In this article two common approaches to averaging rotations are compared to a more advanced approach based on a Riemannian metric. Very offten the barycenter of the quaternions or matrices that represent the rotations are used as an estimate of the mean. These methods neglect that rotations belo...... approximations to the Riemannian metric, and that the subsequent corrections are inherient in the least squares estimation. Keywords: averaging rotations, Riemannian metric, matrix, quaternion......In this article two common approaches to averaging rotations are compared to a more advanced approach based on a Riemannian metric. Very offten the barycenter of the quaternions or matrices that represent the rotations are used as an estimate of the mean. These methods neglect that rotations belong...

  14. A robust combination approach for short-term wind speed forecasting and analysis – Combination of the ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average), ELM (Extreme Learning Machine), SVM (Support Vector Machine) and LSSVM (Least Square SVM) forecasts using a GPR (Gaussian Process Regression) model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Jianzhou; Hu, Jianming

    2015-01-01

    With the increasing importance of wind power as a component of power systems, the problems induced by the stochastic and intermittent nature of wind speed have compelled system operators and researchers to search for more reliable techniques to forecast wind speed. This paper proposes a combination model for probabilistic short-term wind speed forecasting. In this proposed hybrid approach, EWT (Empirical Wavelet Transform) is employed to extract meaningful information from a wind speed series by designing an appropriate wavelet filter bank. The GPR (Gaussian Process Regression) model is utilized to combine independent forecasts generated by various forecasting engines (ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average), ELM (Extreme Learning Machine), SVM (Support Vector Machine) and LSSVM (Least Square SVM)) in a nonlinear way rather than the commonly used linear way. The proposed approach provides more probabilistic information for wind speed predictions besides improving the forecasting accuracy for single-value predictions. The effectiveness of the proposed approach is demonstrated with wind speed data from two wind farms in China. The results indicate that the individual forecasting engines do not consistently forecast short-term wind speed for the two sites, and the proposed combination method can generate a more reliable and accurate forecast. - Highlights: • The proposed approach can make probabilistic modeling for wind speed series. • The proposed approach adapts to the time-varying characteristic of the wind speed. • The hybrid approach can extract the meaningful components from the wind speed series. • The proposed method can generate adaptive, reliable and more accurate forecasting results. • The proposed model combines four independent forecasting engines in a nonlinear way.

  15. Averaged RMHD equations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ichiguchi, Katsuji

    1998-01-01

    A new reduced set of resistive MHD equations is derived by averaging the full MHD equations on specified flux coordinates, which is consistent with 3D equilibria. It is confirmed that the total energy is conserved and the linearized equations for ideal modes are self-adjoint. (author)

  16. Determining average yarding distance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roger H. Twito; Charles N. Mann

    1979-01-01

    Emphasis on environmental and esthetic quality in timber harvesting has brought about increased use of complex boundaries of cutting units and a consequent need for a rapid and accurate method of determining the average yarding distance and area of these units. These values, needed for evaluation of road and landing locations in planning timber harvests, are easily and...

  17. Average Revisited in Context

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watson, Jane; Chick, Helen

    2012-01-01

    This paper analyses the responses of 247 middle school students to items requiring the concept of average in three different contexts: a city's weather reported in maximum daily temperature, the number of children in a family, and the price of houses. The mixed but overall disappointing performance on the six items in the three contexts indicates…

  18. Averaging operations on matrices

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    2014-07-03

    Jul 3, 2014 ... Role of Positive Definite Matrices. • Diffusion Tensor Imaging: 3 × 3 pd matrices model water flow at each voxel of brain scan. • Elasticity: 6 × 6 pd matrices model stress tensors. • Machine Learning: n × n pd matrices occur as kernel matrices. Tanvi Jain. Averaging operations on matrices ...

  19. Average-energy games

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patricia Bouyer

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Two-player quantitative zero-sum games provide a natural framework to synthesize controllers with performance guarantees for reactive systems within an uncontrollable environment. Classical settings include mean-payoff games, where the objective is to optimize the long-run average gain per action, and energy games, where the system has to avoid running out of energy. We study average-energy games, where the goal is to optimize the long-run average of the accumulated energy. We show that this objective arises naturally in several applications, and that it yields interesting connections with previous concepts in the literature. We prove that deciding the winner in such games is in NP inter coNP and at least as hard as solving mean-payoff games, and we establish that memoryless strategies suffice to win. We also consider the case where the system has to minimize the average-energy while maintaining the accumulated energy within predefined bounds at all times: this corresponds to operating with a finite-capacity storage for energy. We give results for one-player and two-player games, and establish complexity bounds and memory requirements.

  20. Books average previous decade of economic misery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bentley, R Alexander; Acerbi, Alberto; Ormerod, Paul; Lampos, Vasileios

    2014-01-01

    For the 20(th) century since the Depression, we find a strong correlation between a 'literary misery index' derived from English language books and a moving average of the previous decade of the annual U.S. economic misery index, which is the sum of inflation and unemployment rates. We find a peak in the goodness of fit at 11 years for the moving average. The fit between the two misery indices holds when using different techniques to measure the literary misery index, and this fit is significantly better than other possible correlations with different emotion indices. To check the robustness of the results, we also analysed books written in German language and obtained very similar correlations with the German economic misery index. The results suggest that millions of books published every year average the authors' shared economic experiences over the past decade.

  1. Books Average Previous Decade of Economic Misery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bentley, R. Alexander; Acerbi, Alberto; Ormerod, Paul; Lampos, Vasileios

    2014-01-01

    For the 20th century since the Depression, we find a strong correlation between a ‘literary misery index’ derived from English language books and a moving average of the previous decade of the annual U.S. economic misery index, which is the sum of inflation and unemployment rates. We find a peak in the goodness of fit at 11 years for the moving average. The fit between the two misery indices holds when using different techniques to measure the literary misery index, and this fit is significantly better than other possible correlations with different emotion indices. To check the robustness of the results, we also analysed books written in German language and obtained very similar correlations with the German economic misery index. The results suggest that millions of books published every year average the authors' shared economic experiences over the past decade. PMID:24416159

  2. On Averaging Rotations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gramkow, Claus

    2001-01-01

    In this paper two common approaches to averaging rotations are compared to a more advanced approach based on a Riemannian metric. Very often the barycenter of the quaternions or matrices that represent the rotations are used as an estimate of the mean. These methods neglect that rotations belong ...... approximations to the Riemannian metric, and that the subsequent corrections are inherent in the least squares estimation.......In this paper two common approaches to averaging rotations are compared to a more advanced approach based on a Riemannian metric. Very often the barycenter of the quaternions or matrices that represent the rotations are used as an estimate of the mean. These methods neglect that rotations belong...

  3. Average is Over

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eliazar, Iddo

    2018-02-01

    The popular perception of statistical distributions is depicted by the iconic bell curve which comprises of a massive bulk of 'middle-class' values, and two thin tails - one of small left-wing values, and one of large right-wing values. The shape of the bell curve is unimodal, and its peak represents both the mode and the mean. Thomas Friedman, the famous New York Times columnist, recently asserted that we have entered a human era in which "Average is Over" . In this paper we present mathematical models for the phenomenon that Friedman highlighted. While the models are derived via different modeling approaches, they share a common foundation. Inherent tipping points cause the models to phase-shift from a 'normal' bell-shape statistical behavior to an 'anomalous' statistical behavior: the unimodal shape changes to an unbounded monotone shape, the mode vanishes, and the mean diverges. Hence: (i) there is an explosion of small values; (ii) large values become super-large; (iii) 'middle-class' values are wiped out, leaving an infinite rift between the small and the super large values; and (iv) "Average is Over" indeed.

  4. Average nuclear surface properties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Groote, H. von.

    1979-01-01

    The definition of the nuclear surface energy is discussed for semi-infinite matter. This definition is extended also for the case that there is a neutron gas instead of vacuum on the one side of the plane surface. The calculations were performed with the Thomas-Fermi Model of Syler and Blanchard. The parameters of the interaction of this model were determined by a least squares fit to experimental masses. The quality of this fit is discussed with respect to nuclear masses and density distributions. The average surface properties were calculated for different particle asymmetry of the nucleon-matter ranging from symmetry beyond the neutron-drip line until the system no longer can maintain the surface boundary and becomes homogeneous. The results of the calculations are incorporated in the nuclear Droplet Model which then was fitted to experimental masses. (orig.)

  5. Americans' Average Radiation Exposure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2000-01-01

    We live with radiation every day. We receive radiation exposures from cosmic rays, from outer space, from radon gas, and from other naturally radioactive elements in the earth. This is called natural background radiation. It includes the radiation we get from plants, animals, and from our own bodies. We also are exposed to man-made sources of radiation, including medical and dental treatments, television sets and emission from coal-fired power plants. Generally, radiation exposures from man-made sources are only a fraction of those received from natural sources. One exception is high exposures used by doctors to treat cancer patients. Each year in the United States, the average dose to people from natural and man-made radiation sources is about 360 millirem. A millirem is an extremely tiny amount of energy absorbed by tissues in the body

  6. Job Surfing: Move On to Move Up.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Justin

    1997-01-01

    Looks at the process of switching jobs and changing careers. Discusses when to consider options and make the move as well as the need to be flexible and open minded. Provides a test for determining the chances of promotion and when to move on. (JOW)

  7. Forecasting the number of zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis cases in south of Fars province, Iran using seasonal ARIMA time series method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharafi, Mehdi; Ghaem, Haleh; Tabatabaee, Hamid Reza; Faramarzi, Hossein

    2017-01-01

    To predict the trend of cutaneous leishmaniasis and assess the relationship between the disease trend and weather variables in south of Fars province using Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model. The trend of cutaneous leishmaniasis was predicted using Mini tab software and SARIMA model. Besides, information about the disease and weather conditions was collected monthly based on time series design during January 2010 to March 2016. Moreover, various SARIMA models were assessed and the best one was selected. Then, the model's fitness was evaluated based on normality of the residuals' distribution, correspondence between the fitted and real amounts, and calculation of Akaike Information Criteria (AIC) and Bayesian Information Criteria (BIC). The study results indicated that SARIMA model (4,1,4)(0,1,0) (12) in general and SARIMA model (4,1,4)(0,1,1) (12) in below and above 15 years age groups could appropriately predict the disease trend in the study area. Moreover, temperature with a three-month delay (lag3) increased the disease trend, rainfall with a four-month delay (lag4) decreased the disease trend, and rainfall with a nine-month delay (lag9) increased the disease trend. Based on the results, leishmaniasis follows a descending trend in the study area in case drought condition continues, SARIMA models can suitably measure the disease trend, and the disease follows a seasonal trend. Copyright © 2017 Hainan Medical University. Production and hosting by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. Moving and Being Moved: Implications for Practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kretchmar, R. Scott

    2000-01-01

    Uses philosophical writings, a novel about baseball, and a nonfiction work on rowing to analyze levels of meaning in physical activity, showing why three popular methods for enhancing meaning have not succeeded and may have moved some students away from deeper levels of meaning. The paper suggests that using hints taken from the three books could…

  9. Forcasting Philippine daily stock exchange index | Urrutia | Journal ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The purpose of the study is to produce a model that can estimate a three-year forecast of the Philippine Daily Stock Exchange Index. Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model is applied ona total of 4,927 daily data observations from 1995 to 2014. By then, actual and predicted values was ...

  10. Journal of Earth System Science | Indian Academy of Sciences

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    To overcome this shortcoming, monthly inflow is predicted in this study based on a combination of seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) andgene expression programming (GEP) models, which is a new hybrid method (SARIMA–GEP). To this end, a four-step process is employed. First, the monthly ...

  11. Moving Field Guides

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cassie Meador; Mark Twery; Meagan. Leatherbury

    2011-01-01

    The Moving Field Guides (MFG) project is a creative take on site interpretation. Moving Field Guides provide an example of how scientific and artistic endeavors work in parallel. Both begin with keen observations that produce information that must be analyzed, understood, and interpreted. That interpretation then needs to be communicated to others to complete the...

  12. People on the Move

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohan, Audrey

    2018-01-01

    The purpose of this 2-3 day lesson is to introduce students in Grades 2-4 to the idea that people move around the world for a variety of reasons. In this activity, students explore why people move through class discussion, a guided reading, and interviews. The teacher elicits student ideas using the compelling question (Dimension 1 of the C3…

  13. The difference between alternative averages

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James Vaupel

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND Demographers have long been interested in how compositional change, e.g., change in age structure, affects population averages. OBJECTIVE We want to deepen understanding of how compositional change affects population averages. RESULTS The difference between two averages of a variable, calculated using alternative weighting functions, equals the covariance between the variable and the ratio of the weighting functions, divided by the average of the ratio. We compare weighted and unweighted averages and also provide examples of use of the relationship in analyses of fertility and mortality. COMMENTS Other uses of covariances in formal demography are worth exploring.

  14. Embodied affectivity: On moving and being moved

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas eFuchs

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available There is a growing body of research indicating that bodily sensation and behaviour strongly influences one’s emotional reaction towards certain situations or objects. On this background, a framework model of embodied affectivity is suggested: we regard emotions as resulting from the circular interaction between affective qualities or affordances in the environment and the subject’s bodily resonance, be it in the form of sensations, postures, expressive movements or movement tendencies. Motion and emotion are thus intrinsically connected: one is moved by movement (perception; impression; affection and moved to move (action; expression; e-motion. Through its resonance, the body functions as a medium of emotional perception: it colours or charges self-experience and the environment with affective valences while it remains itself in the background of one’s own awareness. This model is then applied to emotional social understanding or interaffectivity which is regarded as an intertwinement of two cycles of embodied affectivity, thus continuously modifying each partner’s affective affordances and bodily resonance. We conclude with considerations of how embodied affectivity is altered in psychopathology and can be addressed in psychotherapy of the embodied self.

  15. PARALLEL MOVING MECHANICAL SYSTEMS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Florian Ion Tiberius Petrescu

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE X-NONE MicrosoftInternetExplorer4 Moving mechanical systems parallel structures are solid, fast, and accurate. Between parallel systems it is to be noticed Stewart platforms, as the oldest systems, fast, solid and precise. The work outlines a few main elements of Stewart platforms. Begin with the geometry platform, kinematic elements of it, and presented then and a few items of dynamics. Dynamic primary element on it means the determination mechanism kinetic energy of the entire Stewart platforms. It is then in a record tail cinematic mobile by a method dot matrix of rotation. If a structural mottoelement consists of two moving elements which translates relative, drive train and especially dynamic it is more convenient to represent the mottoelement as a single moving components. We have thus seven moving parts (the six motoelements or feet to which is added mobile platform 7 and one fixed.

  16. The Moving image

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Lennard Højbjerg

    2014-01-01

    Every day we are presented with bodily expressions in audiovisual media – by anchors, journalists and characters in films for instance. This article explores how body language in the moving image has been and can be approached in a scholarly manner.......Every day we are presented with bodily expressions in audiovisual media – by anchors, journalists and characters in films for instance. This article explores how body language in the moving image has been and can be approached in a scholarly manner....

  17. How to average logarithmic retrievals?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Funke

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Calculation of mean trace gas contributions from profiles obtained by retrievals of the logarithm of the abundance rather than retrievals of the abundance itself are prone to biases. By means of a system simulator, biases of linear versus logarithmic averaging were evaluated for both maximum likelihood and maximum a priori retrievals, for various signal to noise ratios and atmospheric variabilities. These biases can easily reach ten percent or more. As a rule of thumb we found for maximum likelihood retrievals that linear averaging better represents the true mean value in cases of large local natural variability and high signal to noise ratios, while for small local natural variability logarithmic averaging often is superior. In the case of maximum a posteriori retrievals, the mean is dominated by the a priori information used in the retrievals and the method of averaging is of minor concern. For larger natural variabilities, the appropriateness of the one or the other method of averaging depends on the particular case because the various biasing mechanisms partly compensate in an unpredictable manner. This complication arises mainly because of the fact that in logarithmic retrievals the weight of the prior information depends on abundance of the gas itself. No simple rule was found on which kind of averaging is superior, and instead of suggesting simple recipes we cannot do much more than to create awareness of the traps related with averaging of mixing ratios obtained from logarithmic retrievals.

  18. Lagrangian averaging with geodesic mean.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oliver, Marcel

    2017-11-01

    This paper revisits the derivation of the Lagrangian averaged Euler (LAE), or Euler- α equations in the light of an intrinsic definition of the averaged flow map as the geodesic mean on the volume-preserving diffeomorphism group. Under the additional assumption that first-order fluctuations are statistically isotropic and transported by the mean flow as a vector field, averaging of the kinetic energy Lagrangian of an ideal fluid yields the LAE Lagrangian. The derivation presented here assumes a Euclidean spatial domain without boundaries.

  19. Moving a House by Moved Participants

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Axel, Erik

    himself in controlling every detail of the shape of the concrete slaps. He pushed all the other participants of the meetings, asking for details, information, the change of drawings etc. He explained the technical issues he was pursuing, was prepared for problems at the meetings, was well informed, always......? The participant observer believed it was a matter of changing coordinates, but the engineers immediately saw it was an issue of pipes in the ground, could they be moved and still function as planned? To decide the possibility of this suggestion the engineer was given the task of investigating the consequences...... they saw him as a bit pushy. On the other hand they understood why he was so since his firm would be fined if the concrete slabs did not meet specifications. The case will be the basis for a discussion of double motivation of the engineer, his evident interest in his professional work, and the wish...

  20. Averaging in spherically symmetric cosmology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coley, A. A.; Pelavas, N.

    2007-01-01

    The averaging problem in cosmology is of fundamental importance. When applied to study cosmological evolution, the theory of macroscopic gravity (MG) can be regarded as a long-distance modification of general relativity. In the MG approach to the averaging problem in cosmology, the Einstein field equations on cosmological scales are modified by appropriate gravitational correlation terms. We study the averaging problem within the class of spherically symmetric cosmological models. That is, we shall take the microscopic equations and effect the averaging procedure to determine the precise form of the correlation tensor in this case. In particular, by working in volume-preserving coordinates, we calculate the form of the correlation tensor under some reasonable assumptions on the form for the inhomogeneous gravitational field and matter distribution. We find that the correlation tensor in a Friedmann-Lemaitre-Robertson-Walker (FLRW) background must be of the form of a spatial curvature. Inhomogeneities and spatial averaging, through this spatial curvature correction term, can have a very significant dynamical effect on the dynamics of the Universe and cosmological observations; in particular, we discuss whether spatial averaging might lead to a more conservative explanation of the observed acceleration of the Universe (without the introduction of exotic dark matter fields). We also find that the correlation tensor for a non-FLRW background can be interpreted as the sum of a spatial curvature and an anisotropic fluid. This may lead to interesting effects of averaging on astrophysical scales. We also discuss the results of averaging an inhomogeneous Lemaitre-Tolman-Bondi solution as well as calculations of linear perturbations (that is, the backreaction) in an FLRW background, which support the main conclusions of the analysis

  1. Averaging models: parameters estimation with the R-Average procedure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Noventa

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The Functional Measurement approach, proposed within the theoretical framework of Information Integration Theory (Anderson, 1981, 1982, can be a useful multi-attribute analysis tool. Compared to the majority of statistical models, the averaging model can account for interaction effects without adding complexity. The R-Average method (Vidotto & Vicentini, 2007 can be used to estimate the parameters of these models. By the use of multiple information criteria in the model selection procedure, R-Average allows for the identification of the best subset of parameters that account for the data. After a review of the general method, we present an implementation of the procedure in the framework of R-project, followed by some experiments using a Monte Carlo method.

  2. MOVES regional level sensitivity analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    The MOVES Regional Level Sensitivity Analysis was conducted to increase understanding of the operations of the MOVES Model in regional emissions analysis and to highlight the following: : the relative sensitivity of selected MOVES Model input paramet...

  3. Move of ground water

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kimura, Shigehiko

    1983-01-01

    As a ground water flow which is difficult to explain by Darcy's theory, there is stagnant water in strata, which moves by pumping and leads to land subsidence. This is now a major problem in Japan. Such move on an extensive scale has been investigated in detail by means of 3 H such as from rainfall in addition to ordinary measurement. The move of ground water is divided broadly into that in an unsaturated stratum from ground surface to water-table and that in a saturated stratum below the water-table. The course of the analyses made so far by 3 H contained in water, and the future trend of its usage are described. A flow model of regarding water as plastic fluid and its flow as channel assembly may be available for some flow mechanism which is not possible to explain with Darcy's theory. (Mori, K.)

  4. Moving toroidal limiter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ikuta, Kazunari; Miyahara, Akira.

    1983-06-01

    The concept of the limiter-divertor proposed by Mirnov is extended to a toroidal limiter-divertor (which we call moving toroidal limiter) using the stream of ferromagnetic balls coated with a low Z materials such as plastics, graphite and ceramics. An important advantage of the use of the ferromagnetic materials would be possible soft landing of the balls on a catcher, provided that the temperature of the balls is below Curie point. Moreover, moving toroidal limiter would work as a protector of the first wall not only against the vertical movement of plasma ring but also against the violent inward motion driven by major disruption because the orbit of the ball in the case of moving toroidal limiter distributes over the small major radius side of the toroidal plasma. (author)

  5. Time Series ARIMA Models of Undergraduate Grade Point Average.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogers, Bruce G.

    The Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) Models, often referred to as Box-Jenkins models, are regression methods for analyzing sequential dependent observations with large amounts of data. The Box-Jenkins approach, a three-stage procedure consisting of identification, estimation and diagnosis, was used to select the most appropriate…

  6. Moving to Jobs?

    OpenAIRE

    Dave Maré; Jason Timmins

    2003-01-01

    This paper examines whether New Zealand residents move from low-growth to high-growth regions, using New Zealand census data from the past three inter-censal periods (covering 1986-2001). We focus on the relationship between employment growth and migration flows to gauge the strength of the relationship and the stability of the relationship over the business cycle. We find that people move to areas of high employment growth, but that the probability of leaving a region is less strongly relate...

  7. Evaluations of average level spacings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liou, H.I.

    1980-01-01

    The average level spacing for highly excited nuclei is a key parameter in cross section formulas based on statistical nuclear models, and also plays an important role in determining many physics quantities. Various methods to evaluate average level spacings are reviewed. Because of the finite experimental resolution, to detect a complete sequence of levels without mixing other parities is extremely difficult, if not totally impossible. Most methods derive the average level spacings by applying a fit, with different degrees of generality, to the truncated Porter-Thomas distribution for reduced neutron widths. A method that tests both distributions of level widths and positions is discussed extensivey with an example of 168 Er data. 19 figures, 2 tables

  8. Libraries on the MOVE.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edgar, Jim; And Others

    1986-01-01

    Presents papers from Illinois State Library and Shawnee Library System's "Libraries on the MOVE" conference focusing on how libraries can impact economic/cultural climate of an area. Topics addressed included information services of rural libraries; marketing; rural library development; library law; information access; interagency…

  9. Sense of moving

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Mark Schram; Grünbaum, Thor

    2017-01-01

    In this chapter, we assume the existence of a sense of “movement activity” that arises when a person actively moves a body part. This sense is usually supposed to be part of sense of agency (SoA). The purpose of the chapter is to determine whether the already existing experimental paradigms can...

  10. Indexing Moving Points

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Agarwal, Pankaj K.; Arge, Lars Allan; Erickson, Jeff

    2003-01-01

    We propose three indexing schemes for storing a set S of N points in the plane, each moving along a linear trajectory, so that any query of the following form can be answered quickly: Given a rectangle R and a real value t, report all K points of S that lie inside R at time t. We first present an...

  11. Moving up in industry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Covell, Charlotte

    2016-01-23

    Charlotte Covell is commercial business manager at Virbac UK, a role that gives her responsibility for the company's sales to corporate practices, some buying groups and internet pharmacies. She began her career as a veterinary nurse, but moved into industry and now has a role in senior business management. British Veterinary Association.

  12. Optics of moving media

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piwnicki, P.; Leonhardt, U.

    2001-01-01

    Light experiences a moving medium as an effective gravitational field. In the limit of low medium velocities the medium flow plays the role of a magnetic vector potential. We review the background of our theory [U. Leonhardt and P. Piwnicki, Phys. Rev. A 60, 4301 (1999); Phys. Rev. Lett. 84, 822 (2000)], including our proposal of making optical black holes.

  13. Moving Another Big Desk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fawcett, Gay

    1996-01-01

    New ways of thinking about leadership require that leaders move their big desks and establish environments that encourage trust and open communication. Educational leaders must trust their colleagues to make wise choices. When teachers are treated democratically as leaders, classrooms will also become democratic learning organizations. (SM)

  14. Making Images That Move

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rennie, Richard

    2015-01-01

    The history of the moving image (the cinema) is well documented in books and on the Internet. This article offers a number of activities that can easily be carried out in a science class. They make use of the phenomenon of "Persistence of Vision." The activities presented herein demonstrate the functionality of the phenakistoscope, the…

  15. Aboard the "Moving School."

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ainscow, Mel; Hopkins, David

    1992-01-01

    In many countries, education legislation embodies contradictory pressures for centralization and decentralization. In the United Kingdom, there is growing government control over policy and direction of schools; schools are also being given more responsibility for resource management. "Moving" schools within Improving the Quality of…

  16. Ergodic averages via dominating processes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Jesper; Mengersen, Kerrie

    2006-01-01

    We show how the mean of a monotone function (defined on a state space equipped with a partial ordering) can be estimated, using ergodic averages calculated from upper and lower dominating processes of a stationary irreducible Markov chain. In particular, we do not need to simulate the stationary...... Markov chain and we eliminate the problem of whether an appropriate burn-in is determined or not. Moreover, when a central limit theorem applies, we show how confidence intervals for the mean can be estimated by bounding the asymptotic variance of the ergodic average based on the equilibrium chain....

  17. High average power supercontinuum sources

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The physical mechanisms and basic experimental techniques for the creation of high average spectral power supercontinuum sources is briefly reviewed. We focus on the use of high-power ytterbium-doped fibre lasers as pump sources, and the use of highly nonlinear photonic crystal fibres as the nonlinear medium.

  18. Moving in Circles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Simonsen, Gunvor

    2008-01-01

    The article examines the development of African diaspora history during the last fifty years. It outlines the move from a focus on African survivals to a focus on deep rooted cultural principles and back again to a revived interest in concrete cultural transfers from Africa to the Americas....... This circular movement can be explained by a combination of elements characterizing African Atlantic and black Atlantic history. Among them is a lack of attention to questions of periodisation and change. Likewise, it has proven difficult to conceptualize Africa and America at one and the same time...... as characterized by cultural diversity and variation. Moreover, the field has been haunted by a tendency of moving to easily from descriptive evidence to conclusions about African identity in the Americas. A promising way to overcome these problems, it is suggested, is to develop research that focuses on single...

  19. When good = better than average

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Don A. Moore

    2007-10-01

    Full Text Available People report themselves to be above average on simple tasks and below average on difficult tasks. This paper proposes an explanation for this effect that is simpler than prior explanations. The new explanation is that people conflate relative with absolute evaluation, especially on subjective measures. The paper then presents a series of four studies that test this conflation explanation. These tests distinguish conflation from other explanations, such as differential weighting and selecting the wrong referent. The results suggest that conflation occurs at the response stage during which people attempt to disambiguate subjective response scales in order to choose an answer. This is because conflation has little effect on objective measures, which would be equally affected if the conflation occurred at encoding.

  20. Electric moving shadow garden

    OpenAIRE

    Bracey, Andrew

    2010-01-01

    Electric Moving Shadow Garden is a multi-directional exploration of the links between artists and cinema, with multiple reference and contextual points. it accompanied the exhibition, UnSpooling: Artists & Cinema, curated by Bracey and Dave Griffiths at Corernhouse, Manchester, who also edited the publication. Published to accompany the Cornerhouse exhibition, UnSpooling: Artists & Cinema, curated by artists Andrew Bracey and Dave Griffiths. This illustrated catalogue explores how internat...

  1. TCR moves to MCR

    CERN Multimedia

    Peter Sollander, AB/OP/TI

    2005-01-01

    The monitoring of CERN's technical infrastructure has moved from the Technical Control Room in building 212 to the Meyrin Control Room (MCR) in building 354 (see map) and from the TS/CSE group to AB/OP. The operation's team as well as the services provided remain the same as before and you can still reach the operator on shift by calling 72201. Peter Sollander, AB/OP/TI

  2. CERN Pension Fund move

    CERN Multimedia

    HR Department

    2007-01-01

    The CERN Pension Fund has moved to new offices on the 5th floor of Building 5. The Benefits Service of the Fund is now located in Offices 5-5-017 - 5-5-021 - 5-5-023. We remind you that the office hours are: Tuesday/Wednesday/Thursday from 10 am to 12 am and from 3 pm to 5 pm. The Fund would like to take this opportunity to warmly thank all the persons involved in the relocation.

  3. Lecture - "Move! Eat better"

    CERN Multimedia

    2012-01-01

    As part of the "Move! Eat better" campaign, Novae’s nutrition adviser, Irène Rolfo, will give a talk on the subject of everyday good nutrition. This will be held in the main building auditorium at 12:30 on Thursday, 20 September 2012. Don’t miss this informative event. For more information, go to http://cern.ch/bpmm            

  4. A moving experience !

    CERN Document Server

    2005-01-01

    The Transport Service pulled out all the stops and, more specifically, its fleet of moving and lifting equipment for the Discovery Monday on 6 June - a truly moving experience for all the visitors who took part ! Visitors could play at being machine operator, twiddling the controls of a lift truck fitted with a jib to lift a dummy magnet into a wooden mock-up of a beam-line.They had to show even greater dexterity for this game of lucky dip...CERN-style.Those with a head for heights took to the skies 20 m above ground in a telescopic boom lift.Children were allowed to climb up into the operator's cabin - this is one of the cranes used to move the LHC magnets around. Warm thanks to all members of the Transport Service for their participation, especially B. Goicoechea, T. Ilkei, R. Bihery, S. Prodon, S. Pelletier, Y. Bernard, A.  Sallot, B. Pigeard, S. Guinchard, B. Bulot, J. Berrez, Y. Grandjean, A. Bouakkaz, M. Bois, F. Stach, T. Mazzarino and S. Fumey.

  5. Averaging Robertson-Walker cosmologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brown, Iain A.; Robbers, Georg; Behrend, Juliane

    2009-01-01

    The cosmological backreaction arises when one directly averages the Einstein equations to recover an effective Robertson-Walker cosmology, rather than assuming a background a priori. While usually discussed in the context of dark energy, strictly speaking any cosmological model should be recovered from such a procedure. We apply the scalar spatial averaging formalism for the first time to linear Robertson-Walker universes containing matter, radiation and dark energy. The formalism employed is general and incorporates systems of multiple fluids with ease, allowing us to consider quantitatively the universe from deep radiation domination up to the present day in a natural, unified manner. Employing modified Boltzmann codes we evaluate numerically the discrepancies between the assumed and the averaged behaviour arising from the quadratic terms, finding the largest deviations for an Einstein-de Sitter universe, increasing rapidly with Hubble rate to a 0.01% effect for h = 0.701. For the ΛCDM concordance model, the backreaction is of the order of Ω eff 0 ≈ 4 × 10 −6 , with those for dark energy models being within a factor of two or three. The impacts at recombination are of the order of 10 −8 and those in deep radiation domination asymptote to a constant value. While the effective equations of state of the backreactions in Einstein-de Sitter, concordance and quintessence models are generally dust-like, a backreaction with an equation of state w eff < −1/3 can be found for strongly phantom models

  6. Analysis and prediction of daily physical activity level data using autoregressive integrated moving average models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Long, Xi; Pauws, S.C.; Pijl, M.; Lacroix, J.; Goris, A.H.C.; Aarts, R.M.

    2009-01-01

    Results are provided on predicting daily physical activity level (PAL) data from past data of participants of a physical activity lifestyle program aimed at promoting a healthier lifestyle consisting of more physical exercise. The PAL data quantifies the level of a person’s daily physical activity

  7. Auto Regressive Moving Average (ARMA) Modeling Method for Gyro Random Noise Using a Robust Kalman Filter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Lei

    2015-01-01

    To solve the problem in which the conventional ARMA modeling methods for gyro random noise require a large number of samples and converge slowly, an ARMA modeling method using a robust Kalman filtering is developed. The ARMA model parameters are employed as state arguments. Unknown time-varying estimators of observation noise are used to achieve the estimated mean and variance of the observation noise. Using the robust Kalman filtering, the ARMA model parameters are estimated accurately. The developed ARMA modeling method has the advantages of a rapid convergence and high accuracy. Thus, the required sample size is reduced. It can be applied to modeling applications for gyro random noise in which a fast and accurate ARMA modeling method is required. PMID:26437409

  8. Limit theorems for stationary increments Lévy driven moving averages

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Basse-O'Connor, Andreas; Lachièze-Rey, Raphaël; Podolskij, Mark

    of the kernel function g at 0. First order asymptotic theory essentially comprise three cases: stable convergence towards a certain infinitely divisible distribution, an ergodic type limit theorem and convergence in probability towards an integrated random process. We also prove the second order limit theorem...

  9. Score-driven exponentially weighted moving averages and Value-at-Risk forecasting

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lucas, A.; Zhang, X.

    2016-01-01

    We present a simple methodology for modeling the time variation in volatilities and other higher-order moments using a recursive updating scheme that is similar to the familiar RiskMetrics approach. The parameters are updated using the score of the forecasting distribution, which allows the

  10. A One Line Derivation of DCC: Application of a Vector Random Coefficient Moving Average Process

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C.M. Hafner (Christian); M.J. McAleer (Michael)

    2014-01-01

    markdownabstract__Abstract__ One of the most widely-used multivariate conditional volatility models is the dynamic conditional correlation (or DCC) specification. However, the underlying stochastic process to derive DCC has not yet been established, which has made problematic the derivation of

  11. CERN Pension Fund move

    CERN Multimedia

    HR Department

    2007-01-01

    The CERN Pension Fund has moved to new offices at the 5th floor of Building 5. The Benefits Service of the Fund will henceforth receive you in the offices: 5-5-017 - 5-5-021 - 5-5-023. We remind you that the office hours are: Tuesday/Wednesday/Thursday from 10 am to 12 am and from 3 pm to 5 pm. The Fund would like to take this opportunity to warmly thank all the persons involved in the Removal.

  12. Moving related to separation : who moves and to what distance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mulder, Clara H.; Malmberg, Gunnar

    We address the issue of moving from the joint home on the occasion of separation. Our research question is: To what extent can the occurrence of moves related to separation, and the distance moved, be explained by ties to the location, resources, and other factors influencing the likelihood of

  13. Topological quantization of ensemble averages

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prodan, Emil

    2009-01-01

    We define the current of a quantum observable and, under well-defined conditions, we connect its ensemble average to the index of a Fredholm operator. The present work builds on a formalism developed by Kellendonk and Schulz-Baldes (2004 J. Funct. Anal. 209 388) to study the quantization of edge currents for continuous magnetic Schroedinger operators. The generalization given here may be a useful tool to scientists looking for novel manifestations of the topological quantization. As a new application, we show that the differential conductance of atomic wires is given by the index of a certain operator. We also comment on how the formalism can be used to probe the existence of edge states

  14. Ready, set, move!

    CERN Multimedia

    Anaïs Schaeffer

    2012-01-01

    This year, the CERN Medical Service is launching a new public health campaign. Advertised by the catchphrase “Move! & Eat Better”, the particular aim of the campaign is to encourage people at CERN to take more regular exercise, of whatever kind.   The CERN annual relay race is scheduled on 24 May this year. The CERN Medical Service will officially launch its “Move! & Eat Better” campaign at this popular sporting event. “We shall be on hand on the day of the race to strongly advocate regular physical activity,” explains Rachid Belkheir, one of the Medical Service doctors. "We really want to pitch our campaign and answer any questions people may have. Above all we want to set an example. So we are going to walk the same circuit as the runners to underline to people that they can easily incorporate movement into their daily routine.” An underlying concern has prompted this campaign: during their first few year...

  15. Flexible time domain averaging technique

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Ming; Lin, Jing; Lei, Yaguo; Wang, Xiufeng

    2013-09-01

    Time domain averaging(TDA) is essentially a comb filter, it cannot extract the specified harmonics which may be caused by some faults, such as gear eccentric. Meanwhile, TDA always suffers from period cutting error(PCE) to different extent. Several improved TDA methods have been proposed, however they cannot completely eliminate the waveform reconstruction error caused by PCE. In order to overcome the shortcomings of conventional methods, a flexible time domain averaging(FTDA) technique is established, which adapts to the analyzed signal through adjusting each harmonic of the comb filter. In this technique, the explicit form of FTDA is first constructed by frequency domain sampling. Subsequently, chirp Z-transform(CZT) is employed in the algorithm of FTDA, which can improve the calculating efficiency significantly. Since the signal is reconstructed in the continuous time domain, there is no PCE in the FTDA. To validate the effectiveness of FTDA in the signal de-noising, interpolation and harmonic reconstruction, a simulated multi-components periodic signal that corrupted by noise is processed by FTDA. The simulation results show that the FTDA is capable of recovering the periodic components from the background noise effectively. Moreover, it can improve the signal-to-noise ratio by 7.9 dB compared with conventional ones. Experiments are also carried out on gearbox test rigs with chipped tooth and eccentricity gear, respectively. It is shown that the FTDA can identify the direction and severity of the eccentricity gear, and further enhances the amplitudes of impulses by 35%. The proposed technique not only solves the problem of PCE, but also provides a useful tool for the fault symptom extraction of rotating machinery.

  16. Slow light in moving media

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leonhardt, U.; Piwnicki, P.

    2001-06-01

    We review the theory of light propagation in moving media with extremely low group velocity. We intend to clarify the most elementary features of monochromatic slow light in a moving medium and, whenever possible, to give an instructive simplified picture.

  17. The average Indian female nose.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patil, Surendra B; Kale, Satish M; Jaiswal, Sumeet; Khare, Nishant; Math, Mahantesh

    2011-12-01

    This study aimed to delineate the anthropometric measurements of the noses of young women of an Indian population and to compare them with the published ideals and average measurements for white women. This anthropometric survey included a volunteer sample of 100 young Indian women ages 18 to 35 years with Indian parents and no history of previous surgery or trauma to the nose. Standardized frontal, lateral, oblique, and basal photographs of the subjects' noses were taken, and 12 standard anthropometric measurements of the nose were determined. The results were compared with published standards for North American white women. In addition, nine nasal indices were calculated and compared with the standards for North American white women. The nose of Indian women differs significantly from the white nose. All the nasal measurements for the Indian women were found to be significantly different from those for North American white women. Seven of the nine nasal indices also differed significantly. Anthropometric analysis suggests differences between the Indian female nose and the North American white nose. Thus, a single aesthetic ideal is inadequate. Noses of Indian women are smaller and wider, with a less projected and rounded tip than the noses of white women. This study established the nasal anthropometric norms for nasal parameters, which will serve as a guide for cosmetic and reconstructive surgery in Indian women.

  18. "Our federalism" moves indoors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruger, Theodore W

    2013-04-01

    A great deal of the US Supreme Court's federalism jurisprudence over the past two decades has focused on the outer limits of federal power, suggesting a mutually exclusive division of jurisdiction between the states and the federal government, where subjects are regulated by one sovereign or the other but not both. This is not an accurate picture of American governance as it has operated over the past half century - most important areas of American life are regulated concurrently by both the federal government and the states. The Supreme Court's June 2012 decision clearing the way for the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (PPACA) to move forward thus should not be regarded as an affront to state sovereignty but as a realistic embrace of state power in its active, modern form. The PPACA is infused with multiple major roles for the states, and as the statute goes into operation over the next few years, states retain, and are already exercising, substantial policy discretion.

  19. Moving Spatial Keyword Queries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wu, Dingming; Yiu, Man Lung; Jensen, Christian S.

    2013-01-01

    propose two algorithms for computing safe zones that guarantee correct results at any time and that aim to optimize the server-side computation as well as the communication between the server and the client. We exploit tight and conservative approximations of safe zones and aggressive computational space...... text data. State-of-the-art solutions for moving queries employ safe zones that guarantee the validity of reported results as long as the user remains within the safe zone associated with a result. However, existing safe-zone methods focus solely on spatial locations and ignore text relevancy. We...... pruning. We present techniques that aim to compute the next safe zone efficiently, and we present two types of conservative safe zones that aim to reduce the communication cost. Empirical studies with real data suggest that the proposals are efficient. To understand the effectiveness of the proposed safe...

  20. Move! Eat better: news

    CERN Multimedia

    2013-01-01

    Are you curious to know whether you’re doing enough daily exercise…? Test yourself with a pedometer!   Through the Move! Eat better campaign, launched in May 2012, the CERN medical service is aiming to improve the health of members of the personnel by encouraging them to prioritise physical activity in conjunction with a balanced diet. Various successful activities have already taken place: relay race/Nordic walk, Bike2work, Zumba and fitness workshops, two conferences (“Physical activity for health” and “Good nutrition every day”), events in the restaurants, as well as posters and a website. Although everyone has got the message from our various communications that physical activity is good for your health, there is still a relevant question being asked: “What is the minimum amount of exercise recommended?” 10,000 steps per day is the ideal figure, which has been demonstrated as beneficial by scientific studies ...

  1. What moves us?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    2015-01-01

    Katalog til udstillingen på Museum Jorn - What moves us? Le Corbusier & Asger Jorn - 12. sept. - 13. dec. 2015. Kataloget undersøger Le Corbusiers skifte fra en rationelt funderet tilgang til arkitekturen til en poetisk, materialistisk tilgang i efterkrigstiden. Den viser hans indflydelse på den...... yngre Asger Jorn og beskriver danskerens første beundring, som sidenhen forvandledes til skarp kritik. Kataloget, som er rigt illustreret med billeder af Le Corbusiers og Asger Jorns kunst og arkitektur, indeholder også genoptryk af originale tekster, samt bidrag i ord og billeder fra fremtrædende...... eksperter. Kataloget indeholder en række artikler af internationale skribenter under flg. overskrifter: Le Corbusier - kunstnerarkitekten i efterkrigstidens Europa Le Corbusier og Asger Jorn - David mod Goliat Gensyn med Le Corbusier - spor i dansk arkitektur og byrum...

  2. Mechanics of moving materials

    CERN Document Server

    Banichuk, Nikolay; Neittaanmäki, Pekka; Saksa, Tytti; Tuovinen, Tero

    2014-01-01

    This book deals with theoretical aspects of modelling the mechanical behaviour of manufacturing, processing, transportation or other systems in which the processed or supporting material is travelling through the system. Examples of such applications include paper making, transmission cables, band saws, printing presses, manufacturing of plastic films and sheets, and extrusion of aluminium foil, textiles and other materials.   The work focuses on out-of-plane dynamics and stability analysis for isotropic and orthotropic travelling elastic and viscoelastic materials, with and without fluid-structure interaction, using analytical and semi-analytical approaches.  Also topics such as fracturing and fatigue are discussed in the context of moving materials. The last part of the book deals with optimization problems involving physical constraints arising from the stability and fatigue analyses, including uncertainties in the parameters.   The book is intended for researchers and specialists in the field, providin...

  3. Plans, Patterns, and Move Categories Guiding a Highly Selective Search

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trippen, Gerhard

    In this paper we present our ideas for an Arimaa-playing program (also called a bot) that uses plans and pattern matching to guide a highly selective search. We restrict move generation to moves in certain move categories to reduce the number of moves considered by the bot significantly. Arimaa is a modern board game that can be played with a standard Chess set. However, the rules of the game are not at all like those of Chess. Furthermore, Arimaa was designed to be as simple and intuitive as possible for humans, yet challenging for computers. While all established Arimaa bots use alpha-beta search with a variety of pruning techniques and other heuristics ending in an extensive positional leaf node evaluation, our new bot, Rat, starts with a positional evaluation of the current position. Based on features found in the current position - supported by pattern matching using a directed position graph - our bot Rat decides which of a given set of plans to follow. The plan then dictates what types of moves can be chosen. This is another major difference from bots that generate "all" possible moves for a particular position. Rat is only allowed to generate moves that belong to certain categories. Leaf nodes are evaluated only by a straightforward material evaluation to help avoid moves that lose material. This highly selective search looks, on average, at only 5 moves out of 5,000 to over 40,000 possible moves in a middle game position.

  4. Moving In, Moving Through, and Moving Out: The Transitional Experiences of Foster Youth College Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gamez, Sara I.

    2017-01-01

    The purpose of this qualitative study was to explore the transitional experiences of foster youth college students. The study explored how foster youth experienced moving into, moving through, and moving out of the college environment and what resources and strategies they used to thrive during their college transitions. In addition, this study…

  5. Role of moving planes and moving spheres following Dupin cyclides

    KAUST Repository

    Jia, Xiaohong

    2014-03-01

    We provide explicit representations of three moving planes that form a μ-basis for a standard Dupin cyclide. We also show how to compute μ-bases for Dupin cyclides in general position and orientation from their implicit equations. In addition, we describe the role of moving planes and moving spheres in bridging between the implicit and rational parametric representations of these cyclides. © 2014 Elsevier B.V.

  6. Role of moving planes and moving spheres following Dupin cyclides

    KAUST Repository

    Jia, Xiaohong

    2014-01-01

    We provide explicit representations of three moving planes that form a μ-basis for a standard Dupin cyclide. We also show how to compute μ-bases for Dupin cyclides in general position and orientation from their implicit equations. In addition, we describe the role of moving planes and moving spheres in bridging between the implicit and rational parametric representations of these cyclides. © 2014 Elsevier B.V.

  7. Move and eat better

    CERN Document Server

    2012-01-01

    CERN has many traditions, but in a week that’s seen the launch of the Medical Service’s  ‘Move & eat better’ campaign, it’s refreshing to note that among the oldest is a sporting one.  The CERN relay race dates back to 15 October 1971 when 21 pioneering teams set off to pound the pavements of CERN. Back then, the Focus users group came in first with a time of 12 minutes and 42 seconds. Today’s route is slightly different, and the number of teams has risen to over 100, with a new category of Nordic Walking introduced, as part of the campaign, for the first time.   The relay has provided some memorable events, and perhaps one of the longest-standing records in the history of sport, with the UA1 strollers’ 10 minutes and 13 seconds unbeaten for thirty years. In the women’s category, the UN Gazelles set the fastest time of 13 minutes and 16 seconds in 1996, while in the veterans category, you wi...

  8. ATLAS starts moving in

    CERN Multimedia

    Della Mussia, S

    2004-01-01

    The first large active detector component was lowered into the ATLAS cavern on 1st March. It consisted of the 8 modules forming the lower part of the central barrel of the tile hadronic calorimeter. The work of assembling the barrel, which comprises 64 modules, started the following day. Two road trailers each with 64 wheels, positioned side by side. This was the solution chosen to transport the lower part of the central barrel of ATLAS' tile hadronic calorimeter from Building 185 to the PX16 shaft at Point 1 (see Figure 1). The transportation, and then the installation of the component in the experimental cavern, which took place over three days were, to say the least, rather spectacular. On 25 February, the component, consisting of eight 6-metre modules, was loaded on to the trailers. The segment of the barrel was transported on a steel support so that it wouldn't move an inch during the journey. On 26 February, once all the necessary safety checks had been carried out, the convoy was able to leave Buildi...

  9. Heterogeneous CPU-GPU moving targets detection for UAV video

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Maowen; Tang, Linbo; Han, Yuqi; Yu, Chunlei; Zhang, Chao; Fu, Huiquan

    2017-07-01

    Moving targets detection is gaining popularity in civilian and military applications. On some monitoring platform of motion detection, some low-resolution stationary cameras are replaced by moving HD camera based on UAVs. The pixels of moving targets in the HD Video taken by UAV are always in a minority, and the background of the frame is usually moving because of the motion of UAVs. The high computational cost of the algorithm prevents running it at higher resolutions the pixels of frame. Hence, to solve the problem of moving targets detection based UAVs video, we propose a heterogeneous CPU-GPU moving target detection algorithm for UAV video. More specifically, we use background registration to eliminate the impact of the moving background and frame difference to detect small moving targets. In order to achieve the effect of real-time processing, we design the solution of heterogeneous CPU-GPU framework for our method. The experimental results show that our method can detect the main moving targets from the HD video taken by UAV, and the average process time is 52.16ms per frame which is fast enough to solve the problem.

  10. Modeling and roles of meteorological factors in outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paritosh K Biswas

    Full Text Available The highly pathogenic avian influenza A virus subtype H5N1 (HPAI H5N1 is a deadly zoonotic pathogen. Its persistence in poultry in several countries is a potential threat: a mutant or genetically reassorted progenitor might cause a human pandemic. Its world-wide eradication from poultry is important to protect public health. The global trend of outbreaks of influenza attributable to HPAI H5N1 shows a clear seasonality. Meteorological factors might be associated with such trend but have not been studied. For the first time, we analyze the role of meteorological factors in the occurrences of HPAI outbreaks in Bangladesh. We employed autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA and multiplicative seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA to assess the roles of different meteorological factors in outbreaks of HPAI. Outbreaks were modeled best when multiplicative seasonality was incorporated. Incorporation of any meteorological variable(s as inputs did not improve the performance of any multivariable models, but relative humidity (RH was a significant covariate in several ARIMA and SARIMA models with different autoregressive and moving average orders. The variable cloud cover was also a significant covariate in two SARIMA models, but air temperature along with RH might be a predictor when moving average (MA order at lag 1 month is considered.

  11. Prediction of South China sea level using seasonal ARIMA models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernandez, Flerida Regine; Po, Rodolfo; Montero, Neil; Addawe, Rizavel

    2017-11-01

    Accelerating sea level rise is an indicator of global warming and poses a threat to low-lying places and coastal countries. This study aims to fit a Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model to the time series obtained from the TOPEX and Jason series of satellite radar altimetries of the South China Sea from the year 2008 to 2015. With altimetric measurements taken in a 10-day repeat cycle, monthly averages of the satellite altimetry measurements were taken to compose the data set used in the study. SARIMA models were then tried and fitted to the time series in order to find the best-fit model. Results show that the SARIMA(1,0,0)(0,1,1)12 model best fits the time series and was used to forecast the values for January 2016 to December 2016. The 12-month forecast using SARIMA(1,0,0)(0,1,1)12 shows that the sea level gradually increases from January to September 2016, and decreases until December 2016.

  12. Radiation by moving charges

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Geloni, Gianluca; Kocharyan, Vitali; Saldin, Evgeni

    2017-04-01

    It is generally accepted that in order to describe the dynamics of relativistic particles in the laboratory (lab) frame it is sufficient to take into account the relativistic dependence of the particle momenta on the velocity. This solution of the dynamics problem in the lab frame makes no reference to Lorentz transformations. For this reason they are not discussed in particle tracking calculations in accelerator and plasma physics. It is generally believed that the electrodynamics problem can be treated within the same ''single inertial frame'' description without reference to Lorentz transformations. In particular, in order to evaluate radiation fields arising from charged particles in motion we need to know their velocities and positions as a function of the lab frame time t. The relativistic motion of a particle in the lab frame is described by Newton's second law ''corrected'' for the relativistic dependence of momentum on velocity. It is assumed in all standard derivations that one can perform identification of the trajectories in the source part of the usual Maxwell's equations with the trajectories vector x(t) measured (or calculated by using the corrected Newton's second law) in the lab frame. This way of coupling fields and particles is considered since more than a century as the relativistically correct procedure.We argue that this procedure needs to be changed, and we demonstrate the following, completely counterintuitive statement: the results of conventional theory of radiation by relativistically moving charges are not consistent with the principle of relativity. In order to find the trajectory of a particle in the lab frame consistent with the usual Maxwell's equations, one needs to solve the dynamic equation inmanifestly covariant form by using the coordinate-independent proper time τ to parameterize the particle world-line in space-time. We show that there is a difference between ''true'' particle trajectory vector x(t) calculated or measured in

  13. Averaging of nonlinearity-managed pulses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zharnitsky, Vadim; Pelinovsky, Dmitry

    2005-01-01

    We consider the nonlinear Schroedinger equation with the nonlinearity management which describes Bose-Einstein condensates under Feshbach resonance. By using an averaging theory, we derive the Hamiltonian averaged equation and compare it with other averaging methods developed for this problem. The averaged equation is used for analytical approximations of nonlinearity-managed solitons

  14. Radiation by moving charges

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Geloni, Gianluca [European XFEL GmbH, Hamburg (Germany); Kocharyan, Vitali; Saldin, Evgeni [Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron (DESY), Hamburg (Germany)

    2017-04-15

    It is generally accepted that in order to describe the dynamics of relativistic particles in the laboratory (lab) frame it is sufficient to take into account the relativistic dependence of the particle momenta on the velocity. This solution of the dynamics problem in the lab frame makes no reference to Lorentz transformations. For this reason they are not discussed in particle tracking calculations in accelerator and plasma physics. It is generally believed that the electrodynamics problem can be treated within the same ''single inertial frame'' description without reference to Lorentz transformations. In particular, in order to evaluate radiation fields arising from charged particles in motion we need to know their velocities and positions as a function of the lab frame time t. The relativistic motion of a particle in the lab frame is described by Newton's second law ''corrected'' for the relativistic dependence of momentum on velocity. It is assumed in all standard derivations that one can perform identification of the trajectories in the source part of the usual Maxwell's equations with the trajectories vector x(t) measured (or calculated by using the corrected Newton's second law) in the lab frame. This way of coupling fields and particles is considered since more than a century as the relativistically correct procedure.We argue that this procedure needs to be changed, and we demonstrate the following, completely counterintuitive statement: the results of conventional theory of radiation by relativistically moving charges are not consistent with the principle of relativity. In order to find the trajectory of a particle in the lab frame consistent with the usual Maxwell's equations, one needs to solve the dynamic equation inmanifestly covariant form by using the coordinate-independent proper time τ to parameterize the particle world-line in space-time. We show that there is a difference between &apos

  15. Burden of Disease Measured by Disability-Adjusted Life Years and a Disease Forecasting Time Series Model of Scrub Typhus in Laiwu, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Li-Ping; Liang, Si-Yuan; Wang, Xian-Jun; Li, Xiu-Jun; Wu, Yan-Ling; Ma, Wei

    2015-01-01

    Background Laiwu District is recognized as a hyper-endemic region for scrub typhus in Shandong Province, but the seriousness of this problem has been neglected in public health circles. Methodology/Principal Findings A disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) approach was adopted to measure the burden of scrub typhus in Laiwu, China during the period 2006 to 2012. A multiple seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model (SARIMA) was used to identify the most suitable forecasting model for scrub typhus in Laiwu. Results showed that the disease burden of scrub typhus is increasing yearly in Laiwu, and which is higher in females than males. For both females and males, DALY rates were highest for the 60–69 age group. Of all the SARIMA models tested, the SARIMA(2,1,0)(0,1,0)12 model was the best fit for scrub typhus cases in Laiwu. Human infections occurred mainly in autumn with peaks in October. Conclusions/Significance Females, especially those of 60 to 69 years of age, were at highest risk of developing scrub typhus in Laiwu, China. The SARIMA (2,1,0)(0,1,0)12 model was the best fit forecasting model for scrub typhus in Laiwu, China. These data are useful for developing public health education and intervention programs to reduce disease. PMID:25569248

  16. https://www.jcoeng.edu.iq/index.php/main/article/view/155/138

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Awatif Soaded Alsaqqar

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The need to create the optimal water quality management process has motivated researchers to pursue prediction modeling development. One of the widely important forecasting models is the sessional autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA model. In the present study, a SARIMA model was developed in R software to fit a time series data of monthly fluoride content collected from six stations on Tigris River for the period from 2004 to 2014. The adequate SARIMA model that has the least Akaike's information criterion (AIC and mean squared error (MSE was found to be SARIMA (2, 0, 0 (0,1,1. The model parameters were identified and diagnosed to derive the forecasting equations at each selected location. The correlation coefficient between the actual and predicted values for fluoride concentration at the six locations, Al-Karakh, East Tigris, Al-Wathbah, AL-Karamah, Al-Rashid and Al-Wahda WTP intakes, was 0.93, 0.82, 0.86, 0.90, 0.83 and 0.89, respectively. Model verification results indicated that the model forecasting outputs rationally estimated the actual monthly fluoride content in the selected locations.

  17. Minimum Delay Moving Object Detection

    KAUST Repository

    Lao, Dong

    2017-11-09

    We present a general framework and method for detection of an object in a video based on apparent motion. The object moves relative to background motion at some unknown time in the video, and the goal is to detect and segment the object as soon it moves in an online manner. Due to unreliability of motion between frames, more than two frames are needed to reliably detect the object. Our method is designed to detect the object(s) with minimum delay, i.e., frames after the object moves, constraining the false alarms. Experiments on a new extensive dataset for moving object detection show that our method achieves less delay for all false alarm constraints than existing state-of-the-art.

  18. Imaging of Moving Ground Vehicles

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Rihaczek, A

    1996-01-01

    ... requires that use be made of the complex image. The yaw/pitch/roll/bounce/flex motion of a moving ground vehicle demands that different motion compensations be applied to different parts of the vehicle...

  19. Nordic Seniors on the Move

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    ”I believe that all people need to move about. Actually, some have difficulties in doing so. They stay in their home neighbourhoods where they’ve grown up and feel safe. I can understand that, but my wife and I, we didn’t want that. We are more open to new ideas.” This anthology is about seniors...... on the move. In seven chapters, Nordic researchers from various disciplines, by means of ethnographic methods, attempt to comprehend the phenomenon of Nordic seniors who move to leisure areas in their own or in other countries. The number of people involved in this kind of migratory movement has grown...... above gives voice to one of these seniors, stressing the necessity of moving. The anthology contributes to the international body of literature about later life migration, specifically representing experiences made by Nordic seniors. As shown here, mobility and migration in later life have implications...

  20. Minimum Delay Moving Object Detection

    KAUST Repository

    Lao, Dong

    2017-01-08

    We present a general framework and method for detection of an object in a video based on apparent motion. The object moves relative to background motion at some unknown time in the video, and the goal is to detect and segment the object as soon it moves in an online manner. Due to unreliability of motion between frames, more than two frames are needed to reliably detect the object. Our method is designed to detect the object(s) with minimum delay, i.e., frames after the object moves, constraining the false alarms. Experiments on a new extensive dataset for moving object detection show that our method achieves less delay for all false alarm constraints than existing state-of-the-art.

  1. Minimum Delay Moving Object Detection

    KAUST Repository

    Lao, Dong; Sundaramoorthi, Ganesh

    2017-01-01

    We present a general framework and method for detection of an object in a video based on apparent motion. The object moves relative to background motion at some unknown time in the video, and the goal is to detect and segment the object as soon it moves in an online manner. Due to unreliability of motion between frames, more than two frames are needed to reliably detect the object. Our method is designed to detect the object(s) with minimum delay, i.e., frames after the object moves, constraining the false alarms. Experiments on a new extensive dataset for moving object detection show that our method achieves less delay for all false alarm constraints than existing state-of-the-art.

  2. Autowaves in moving excitable media

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V.A.Davydov

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Within the framework of kinematic theory of autowaves we suggest a method for analytic description of stationary autowave structures appearing at the boundary between the moving and fixed excitable media. The front breakdown phenomenon is predicted for such structures. Autowave refraction and, particulary, one-side "total reflection" at the boundary is considered. The obtained analytical results are confirmed by computer simulations. Prospects of the proposed method for further studies of autowave dynamics in the moving excitable media are discussed.

  3. Infinite games with uncertain moves

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicholas Asher

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available We study infinite two-player games where one of the players is unsure about the set of moves available to the other player. In particular, the set of moves of the other player is a strict superset of what she assumes it to be. We explore what happens to sets in various levels of the Borel hierarchy under such a situation. We show that the sets at every alternate level of the hierarchy jump to the next higher level.

  4. The average size of ordered binary subgraphs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Leeuwen, J.; Hartel, Pieter H.

    To analyse the demands made on the garbage collector in a graph reduction system, the change in size of an average graph is studied when an arbitrary edge is removed. In ordered binary trees the average number of deleted nodes as a result of cutting a single edge is equal to the average size of a

  5. Transport of the moving barrier driven by chiral active particles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liao, Jing-jing; Huang, Xiao-qun; Ai, Bao-quan

    2018-03-01

    Transport of a moving V-shaped barrier exposed to a bath of chiral active particles is investigated in a two-dimensional channel. Due to the chirality of active particles and the transversal asymmetry of the barrier position, active particles can power and steer the directed transport of the barrier in the longitudinal direction. The transport of the barrier is determined by the chirality of active particles. The moving barrier and active particles move in the opposite directions. The average velocity of the barrier is much larger than that of active particles. There exist optimal parameters (the chirality, the self-propulsion speed, the packing fraction, and the channel width) at which the average velocity of the barrier takes its maximal value. In particular, tailoring the geometry of the barrier and the active concentration provides novel strategies to control the transport properties of micro-objects or cargoes in an active medium.

  6. Moving event and moving participant in aspectual conceptions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Izutsu Katsunobu

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available This study advances an analysis of the event conception of aspectual forms in four East Asian languages: Ainu, Japanese, Korean, and Ryukyuan. As earlier studies point out, event conceptions can be divided into two major types: the moving-event type and the moving-participant type, respectively. All aspectual forms in Ainu and Korean, and most forms in Japanese and Ryukyuan are based on that type of event conception. Moving-participant oriented Ainu and movingevent oriented Japanese occupy two extremes, between which Korean and Ryukyuan stand. Notwithstanding the geographical relationships among the four languages, Ryukyuan is closer to Ainu than to Korean, whereas Korean is closer to Ainu than to Japanese.

  7. Minimum Delay Moving Object Detection

    KAUST Repository

    Lao, Dong

    2017-05-14

    This thesis presents a general framework and method for detection of an object in a video based on apparent motion. The object moves, at some unknown time, differently than the “background” motion, which can be induced from camera motion. The goal of proposed method is to detect and segment the object as soon it moves in an online manner. Since motion estimation can be unreliable between frames, more than two frames are needed to reliably detect the object. Observing more frames before declaring a detection may lead to a more accurate detection and segmentation, since more motion may be observed leading to a stronger motion cue. However, this leads to greater delay. The proposed method is designed to detect the object(s) with minimum delay, i.e., frames after the object moves, constraining the false alarms, defined as declarations of detection before the object moves or incorrect or inaccurate segmentation at the detection time. Experiments on a new extensive dataset for moving object detection show that our method achieves less delay for all false alarm constraints than existing state-of-the-art.

  8. Averaging for solitons with nonlinearity management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pelinovsky, D.E.; Kevrekidis, P.G.; Frantzeskakis, D.J.

    2003-01-01

    We develop an averaging method for solitons of the nonlinear Schroedinger equation with a periodically varying nonlinearity coefficient, which is used to effectively describe solitons in Bose-Einstein condensates, in the context of the recently proposed technique of Feshbach resonance management. Using the derived local averaged equation, we study matter-wave bright and dark solitons and demonstrate a very good agreement between solutions of the averaged and full equations

  9. Moving Horizon Estimation and Control

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, John Bagterp

    successful and applied methodology beyond PID-control for control of industrial processes. The main contribution of this thesis is introduction and definition of the extended linear quadratic optimal control problem for solution of numerical problems arising in moving horizon estimation and control...... problems. Chapter 1 motivates moving horizon estimation and control as a paradigm for control of industrial processes. It introduces the extended linear quadratic control problem and discusses its central role in moving horizon estimation and control. Introduction, application and efficient solution....... It provides an algorithm for computation of the maximal output admissible set for linear model predictive control. Appendix D provides results concerning linear regression. Appendix E discuss prediction error methods for identification of linear models tailored for model predictive control....

  10. DSCOVR Magnetometer Level 2 One Minute Averages

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Interplanetary magnetic field observations collected from magnetometer on DSCOVR satellite - 1-minute average of Level 1 data

  11. DSCOVR Magnetometer Level 2 One Second Averages

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Interplanetary magnetic field observations collected from magnetometer on DSCOVR satellite - 1-second average of Level 1 data

  12. Spacetime averaging of exotic singularity universes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dabrowski, Mariusz P.

    2011-01-01

    Taking a spacetime average as a measure of the strength of singularities we show that big-rips (type I) are stronger than big-bangs. The former have infinite spacetime averages while the latter have them equal to zero. The sudden future singularities (type II) and w-singularities (type V) have finite spacetime averages. The finite scale factor (type III) singularities for some values of the parameters may have an infinite average and in that sense they may be considered stronger than big-bangs.

  13. NOAA Average Annual Salinity (3-Zone)

    Data.gov (United States)

    California Natural Resource Agency — The 3-Zone Average Annual Salinity Digital Geography is a digital spatial framework developed using geographic information system (GIS) technology. These salinity...

  14. Automatic Moving Object Segmentation for Freely Moving Cameras

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yanli Wan

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a new moving object segmentation algorithm for freely moving cameras which is very common for the outdoor surveillance system, the car build-in surveillance system, and the robot navigation system. A two-layer based affine transformation model optimization method is proposed for camera compensation purpose, where the outer layer iteration is used to filter the non-background feature points, and the inner layer iteration is used to estimate a refined affine model based on the RANSAC method. Then the feature points are classified into foreground and background according to the detected motion information. A geodesic based graph cut algorithm is then employed to extract the moving foreground based on the classified features. Unlike the existing global optimization or the long term feature point tracking based method, our algorithm only performs on two successive frames to segment the moving foreground, which makes it suitable for the online video processing applications. The experiment results demonstrate the effectiveness of our algorithm in both of the high accuracy and the fast speed.

  15. Improving consensus structure by eliminating averaging artifacts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    KC Dukka B

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Common structural biology methods (i.e., NMR and molecular dynamics often produce ensembles of molecular structures. Consequently, averaging of 3D coordinates of molecular structures (proteins and RNA is a frequent approach to obtain a consensus structure that is representative of the ensemble. However, when the structures are averaged, artifacts can result in unrealistic local geometries, including unphysical bond lengths and angles. Results Herein, we describe a method to derive representative structures while limiting the number of artifacts. Our approach is based on a Monte Carlo simulation technique that drives a starting structure (an extended or a 'close-by' structure towards the 'averaged structure' using a harmonic pseudo energy function. To assess the performance of the algorithm, we applied our approach to Cα models of 1364 proteins generated by the TASSER structure prediction algorithm. The average RMSD of the refined model from the native structure for the set becomes worse by a mere 0.08 Å compared to the average RMSD of the averaged structures from the native structure (3.28 Å for refined structures and 3.36 A for the averaged structures. However, the percentage of atoms involved in clashes is greatly reduced (from 63% to 1%; in fact, the majority of the refined proteins had zero clashes. Moreover, a small number (38 of refined structures resulted in lower RMSD to the native protein versus the averaged structure. Finally, compared to PULCHRA 1, our approach produces representative structure of similar RMSD quality, but with much fewer clashes. Conclusion The benchmarking results demonstrate that our approach for removing averaging artifacts can be very beneficial for the structural biology community. Furthermore, the same approach can be applied to almost any problem where averaging of 3D coordinates is performed. Namely, structure averaging is also commonly performed in RNA secondary prediction 2, which

  16. 40 CFR 76.11 - Emissions averaging.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 16 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Emissions averaging. 76.11 Section 76.11 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) ACID RAIN NITROGEN OXIDES EMISSION REDUCTION PROGRAM § 76.11 Emissions averaging. (a) General...

  17. Determinants of College Grade Point Averages

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bailey, Paul Dean

    2012-01-01

    Chapter 2: The Role of Class Difficulty in College Grade Point Averages. Grade Point Averages (GPAs) are widely used as a measure of college students' ability. Low GPAs can remove a students from eligibility for scholarships, and even continued enrollment at a university. However, GPAs are determined not only by student ability but also by the…

  18. Carlson Wagonlit Travel is moving

    CERN Multimedia

    2013-01-01

    The renovation of the Main Building continues!   Because of this, Carlson Wagonlit Travel will move from building 62 to building 510 on 4 October and the agency will be closed in the afternoon. An emergency service will be organised for official travels only. Phone: 022 799 75 73 & 022 799 75 78 / e-mail: cern@carlsonwagonlit.ch

  19. Minimum Delay Moving Object Detection

    KAUST Repository

    Lao, Dong

    2017-01-01

    This thesis presents a general framework and method for detection of an object in a video based on apparent motion. The object moves, at some unknown time, differently than the “background” motion, which can be induced from camera motion. The goal

  20. Congestion and residential moving behaviour

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Morten Marott; Pilegaard, Ninette; Van Ommeren, Jos

    2008-01-01

    to congestion. We focus on the equilibrium in which some workers currently living in one region accept jobs in the other, with a fraction of them choosing to commute from their current residence to the new job in the other region and the remainder choosing to move to the region in which the new job is located...

  1. Moving ring reactor 'Karin-1'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1983-12-01

    The conceptual design of a moving ring reactor ''Karin-1'' has been carried out to advance fusion system design, to clarify the research and development problems, and to decide their priority. In order to attain these objectives, a D-T reactor with tritium breeding blanket is designed, a commercial reactor with net power output of 500 MWe is designed, the compatibility of plasma physics with fusion engineering is demonstrated, and some other guideline is indicated. A moving ring reactor is composed mainly of three parts. In the first formation section, a plasma ring is formed and heated up to ignition temperature. The plasma ring of compact torus is transported from the formation section through the next burning section to generate fusion power. Then the plasma ring moves into the last recovery section, and the energy and particles of the plasma ring are recovered. The outline of a moving ring reactor ''Karin-1'' is described. As a candidate material for the first wall, SiC was adopted to reduce the MHD effect and to minimize the interaction with neutrons and charged particles. The thin metal lining was applied to the SiC surface to solve the problem of the compatibility with lithium blanket. Plasma physics, the engineering aspect and the items of research and development are described. (Kako, I.)

  2. Minimum Delay Moving Object Detection

    KAUST Repository

    Lao, Dong; Sundaramoorthi, Ganesh

    2017-01-01

    We present a general framework and method for detection of an object in a video based on apparent motion. The object moves relative to background motion at some unknown time in the video, and the goal is to detect and segment the object as soon

  3. Hybrid Heat Capacity - Moving Slab Laser Concept

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stappaerts, E A

    2002-01-01

    A hybrid configuration of a heat capacity laser (HCL) and a moving slab laser (MSL) has been studied. Multiple volumes of solid-state laser material are sequentially diode-pumped and their energy extracted. When a volume reaches a maximum temperature after a ''sub-magazine depth'', it is moved out of the pumping region into a cooling region, and a new volume is introduced. The total magazine depth equals the submagazine depth times the number of volumes. The design parameters are chosen to provide high duty factor operation, resulting in effective use of the diode arrays. The concept significantly reduces diode array cost over conventional heat capacity lasers, and it is considered enabling for many potential applications. A conceptual design study of the hybrid configuration has been carried out. Three concepts were evaluated using CAD tools. The concepts are described and their relative merits discussed. Because of reduced disk size and diode cost, the hybrid concept may allow scaling to average powers on the order of 0.5 MW/module

  4. Moving Magnetic Features Around a Pore

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kaithakkal, A. J.; Riethmüller, T. L.; Solanki, S. K.; Lagg, A.; Barthol, P.; Gandorfer, A.; Gizon, L.; Hirzberger, J.; VanNoort, M. [Max Planck Institute for Solar System Research, Justus-von-Liebig-Weg 3, Göttingen D-37077 (Germany); Rodríguez, J. Blanco [Grupo de Astronomía y Ciencias del Espacio, Universidad de Valencia, E-46980 Paterna, Valencia (Spain); Iniesta, J. C. Del Toro; Suárez, D. Orozco [Instituto de Astrofísica de Andalucía (CSIC), Apartado de Correos 3004, E-18080 Granada (Spain); Schmidt, W. [Kiepenheuer-Institut für Sonnenphysik, Schöneckstr. 6, D-79104 Freiburg (Germany); Pillet, V. Martínez [National Solar Observatory, 3665 Discovery Drive, Boulder, CO 80303 (United States); Knölker, M., E-mail: anjali@mps.mpg.de [High Altitude Observatory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, P.O. Box 3000, Boulder, CO 80307-3000 (United States)

    2017-03-01

    Spectropolarimetric observations from Sunrise/IMaX, obtained in 2013 June, are used for a statistical analysis to determine the physical properties of moving magnetic features (MMFs) observed near a pore. MMFs of the same and opposite polarity, with respect to the pore, are found to stream from its border at an average speed of 1.3 km s{sup −1} and 1.2 km s{sup −1}, respectively, with mainly same-polarity MMFs found further away from the pore. MMFs of both polarities are found to harbor rather weak, inclined magnetic fields. Opposite-polarity MMFs are blueshifted, whereas same-polarity MMFs do not show any preference for up- or downflows. Most of the MMFs are found to be of sub-arcsecond size and carry a mean flux of ∼1.2 × 10{sup 17} Mx.

  5. The Effect of Direction on Cursor Moving Kinematics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chiu-Ping Lu

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available There have been only few studies to substantiate the kinematic characteristics of cursor movement. In this study, a quantitative experimental research method was used to explore the effect of moving direction on the kinematics of cursor movement in 24 typical young persons using our previously developed computerized measuring program. The results of multiple one way repeated measures ANOVAs and post hoc LSD tests demonstrated that the moving direction had effects on average velocity, movement time, movement unit and peak velocity. Moving leftward showed better efficiency than moving rightward, upward and downward from the kinematic evidences such as velocity, movement unit and time. Moreover, the unique pattern of the power spectral density (PSD of velocity (strategy for power application explained why the smoothness was still maintained while moving leftward even under an unstable situation with larger momentum. Moreover, the information from this cursor moving study can guide us to relocate the toolbars and icons in the window interface, especially for individuals with physical disabilities whose performances are easily interrupted while controlling the cursor in specific directions.

  6. Computation of the bounce-average code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cutler, T.A.; Pearlstein, L.D.; Rensink, M.E.

    1977-01-01

    The bounce-average computer code simulates the two-dimensional velocity transport of ions in a mirror machine. The code evaluates and bounce-averages the collision operator and sources along the field line. A self-consistent equilibrium magnetic field is also computed using the long-thin approximation. Optionally included are terms that maintain μ, J invariance as the magnetic field changes in time. The assumptions and analysis that form the foundation of the bounce-average code are described. When references can be cited, the required results are merely stated and explained briefly. A listing of the code is appended

  7. An empirical investigation on the forecasting ability of mallows model averaging in a macro economic environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yin, Yip Chee; Hock-Eam, Lim

    2012-09-01

    This paper investigates the forecasting ability of Mallows Model Averaging (MMA) by conducting an empirical analysis of five Asia countries, Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines, Indonesia and China's GDP growth rate. Results reveal that MMA has no noticeable differences in predictive ability compared to the general autoregressive fractional integrated moving average model (ARFIMA) and its predictive ability is sensitive to the effect of financial crisis. MMA could be an alternative forecasting method for samples without recent outliers such as financial crisis.

  8. Rotational averaging of multiphoton absorption cross sections

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Friese, Daniel H., E-mail: daniel.h.friese@uit.no; Beerepoot, Maarten T. P.; Ruud, Kenneth [Centre for Theoretical and Computational Chemistry, University of Tromsø — The Arctic University of Norway, N-9037 Tromsø (Norway)

    2014-11-28

    Rotational averaging of tensors is a crucial step in the calculation of molecular properties in isotropic media. We present a scheme for the rotational averaging of multiphoton absorption cross sections. We extend existing literature on rotational averaging to even-rank tensors of arbitrary order and derive equations that require only the number of photons as input. In particular, we derive the first explicit expressions for the rotational average of five-, six-, and seven-photon absorption cross sections. This work is one of the required steps in making the calculation of these higher-order absorption properties possible. The results can be applied to any even-rank tensor provided linearly polarized light is used.

  9. Sea Surface Temperature Average_SST_Master

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Sea surface temperature collected via satellite imagery from http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/gridded/data.noaa.ersst.html and averaged for each region using ArcGIS...

  10. Trajectory averaging for stochastic approximation MCMC algorithms

    KAUST Repository

    Liang, Faming

    2010-01-01

    to the stochastic approximation Monte Carlo algorithm [Liang, Liu and Carroll J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 102 (2007) 305-320]. The application of the trajectory averaging estimator to other stochastic approximationMCMC algorithms, for example, a stochastic

  11. Should the average tax rate be marginalized?

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Feldman, N. E.; Katuščák, Peter

    -, č. 304 (2006), s. 1-65 ISSN 1211-3298 Institutional research plan: CEZ:MSM0021620846 Keywords : tax * labor supply * average tax Subject RIV: AH - Economics http://www.cerge-ei.cz/pdf/wp/Wp304.pdf

  12. A practical guide to averaging functions

    CERN Document Server

    Beliakov, Gleb; Calvo Sánchez, Tomasa

    2016-01-01

    This book offers an easy-to-use and practice-oriented reference guide to mathematical averages. It presents different ways of aggregating input values given on a numerical scale, and of choosing and/or constructing aggregating functions for specific applications. Building on a previous monograph by Beliakov et al. published by Springer in 2007, it outlines new aggregation methods developed in the interim, with a special focus on the topic of averaging aggregation functions. It examines recent advances in the field, such as aggregation on lattices, penalty-based aggregation and weakly monotone averaging, and extends many of the already existing methods, such as: ordered weighted averaging (OWA), fuzzy integrals and mixture functions. A substantial mathematical background is not called for, as all the relevant mathematical notions are explained here and reported on together with a wealth of graphical illustrations of distinct families of aggregation functions. The authors mainly focus on practical applications ...

  13. MN Temperature Average (1961-1990) - Line

    Data.gov (United States)

    Minnesota Department of Natural Resources — This data set depicts 30-year averages (1961-1990) of monthly and annual temperatures for Minnesota. Isolines and regions were created using kriging and...

  14. MN Temperature Average (1961-1990) - Polygon

    Data.gov (United States)

    Minnesota Department of Natural Resources — This data set depicts 30-year averages (1961-1990) of monthly and annual temperatures for Minnesota. Isolines and regions were created using kriging and...

  15. Average Bandwidth Allocation Model of WFQ

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomáš Balogh

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available We present a new iterative method for the calculation of average bandwidth assignment to traffic flows using a WFQ scheduler in IP based NGN networks. The bandwidth assignment calculation is based on the link speed, assigned weights, arrival rate, and average packet length or input rate of the traffic flows. We prove the model outcome with examples and simulation results using NS2 simulator.

  16. Nonequilibrium statistical averages and thermo field dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marinaro, A.; Scarpetta, Q.

    1984-01-01

    An extension of thermo field dynamics is proposed, which permits the computation of nonequilibrium statistical averages. The Brownian motion of a quantum oscillator is treated as an example. In conclusion it is pointed out that the procedure proposed to computation of time-dependent statistical average gives the correct two-point Green function for the damped oscillator. A simple extension can be used to compute two-point Green functions of free particles

  17. An approximate analytical approach to resampling averages

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Malzahn, Dorthe; Opper, M.

    2004-01-01

    Using a novel reformulation, we develop a framework to compute approximate resampling data averages analytically. The method avoids multiple retraining of statistical models on the samples. Our approach uses a combination of the replica "trick" of statistical physics and the TAP approach for appr...... for approximate Bayesian inference. We demonstrate our approach on regression with Gaussian processes. A comparison with averages obtained by Monte-Carlo sampling shows that our method achieves good accuracy....

  18. Moving Manifolds in Electromagnetic Fields

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David V. Svintradze

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available We propose dynamic non-linear equations for moving surfaces in an electromagnetic field. The field is induced by a material body with a boundary of the surface. Correspondingly the potential energy, set by the field at the boundary can be written as an addition of four-potential times four-current to a contraction of the electromagnetic tensor. Proper application of the minimal action principle to the system Lagrangian yields dynamic non-linear equations for moving three dimensional manifolds in electromagnetic fields. The equations in different conditions simplify to Maxwell equations for massless three surfaces, to Euler equations for a dynamic fluid, to magneto-hydrodynamic equations and to the Poisson-Boltzmann equation.

  19. Stand up and move forward

    OpenAIRE

    de Jong, Johan; Shokoohi, Roya

    2017-01-01

    Insufficient physical activity or being inactive is one of the leading risk factors for non-communicable diseases worldwide. Globally between 6-10% of premature mortality, caused by non-communicable diseases, could be avoided if people adhered to general physical activity guidelines. Besides that, studies link sitting for prolonged periods of time with many serious health concerns. The solution seems simple: Stand up and move forward. However, human behavior is difficult to change – due to th...

  20. Improved averaging for non-null interferometry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fleig, Jon F.; Murphy, Paul E.

    2013-09-01

    Arithmetic averaging of interferometric phase measurements is a well-established method for reducing the effects of time varying disturbances, such as air turbulence and vibration. Calculating a map of the standard deviation for each pixel in the average map can provide a useful estimate of its variability. However, phase maps of complex and/or high density fringe fields frequently contain defects that severely impair the effectiveness of simple phase averaging and bias the variability estimate. These defects include large or small-area phase unwrapping artifacts, large alignment components, and voids that change in number, location, or size. Inclusion of a single phase map with a large area defect into the average is usually sufficient to spoil the entire result. Small-area phase unwrapping and void defects may not render the average map metrologically useless, but they pessimistically bias the variance estimate for the overwhelming majority of the data. We present an algorithm that obtains phase average and variance estimates that are robust against both large and small-area phase defects. It identifies and rejects phase maps containing large area voids or unwrapping artifacts. It also identifies and prunes the unreliable areas of otherwise useful phase maps, and removes the effect of alignment drift from the variance estimate. The algorithm has several run-time adjustable parameters to adjust the rejection criteria for bad data. However, a single nominal setting has been effective over a wide range of conditions. This enhanced averaging algorithm can be efficiently integrated with the phase map acquisition process to minimize the number of phase samples required to approach the practical noise floor of the metrology environment.

  1. Random walk of passive tracers among randomly moving obstacles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gori, Matteo; Donato, Irene; Floriani, Elena; Nardecchia, Ilaria; Pettini, Marco

    2016-04-14

    This study is mainly motivated by the need of understanding how the diffusion behavior of a biomolecule (or even of a larger object) is affected by other moving macromolecules, organelles, and so on, inside a living cell, whence the possibility of understanding whether or not a randomly walking biomolecule is also subject to a long-range force field driving it to its target. By means of the Continuous Time Random Walk (CTRW) technique the topic of random walk in random environment is here considered in the case of a passively diffusing particle among randomly moving and interacting obstacles. The relevant physical quantity which is worked out is the diffusion coefficient of the passive tracer which is computed as a function of the average inter-obstacles distance. The results reported here suggest that if a biomolecule, let us call it a test molecule, moves towards its target in the presence of other independently interacting molecules, its motion can be considerably slowed down.

  2. Asynchronous Gossip for Averaging and Spectral Ranking

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borkar, Vivek S.; Makhijani, Rahul; Sundaresan, Rajesh

    2014-08-01

    We consider two variants of the classical gossip algorithm. The first variant is a version of asynchronous stochastic approximation. We highlight a fundamental difficulty associated with the classical asynchronous gossip scheme, viz., that it may not converge to a desired average, and suggest an alternative scheme based on reinforcement learning that has guaranteed convergence to the desired average. We then discuss a potential application to a wireless network setting with simultaneous link activation constraints. The second variant is a gossip algorithm for distributed computation of the Perron-Frobenius eigenvector of a nonnegative matrix. While the first variant draws upon a reinforcement learning algorithm for an average cost controlled Markov decision problem, the second variant draws upon a reinforcement learning algorithm for risk-sensitive control. We then discuss potential applications of the second variant to ranking schemes, reputation networks, and principal component analysis.

  3. Benchmarking statistical averaging of spectra with HULLAC

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klapisch, Marcel; Busquet, Michel

    2008-11-01

    Knowledge of radiative properties of hot plasmas is important for ICF, astrophysics, etc When mid-Z or high-Z elements are present, the spectra are so complex that one commonly uses statistically averaged description of atomic systems [1]. In a recent experiment on Fe[2], performed under controlled conditions, high resolution transmission spectra were obtained. The new version of HULLAC [3] allows the use of the same model with different levels of details/averaging. We will take advantage of this feature to check the effect of averaging with comparison with experiment. [1] A Bar-Shalom, J Oreg, and M Klapisch, J. Quant. Spectros. Rad. Transf. 65, 43 (2000). [2] J. E. Bailey, G. A. Rochau, C. A. Iglesias et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 99, 265002-4 (2007). [3]. M. Klapisch, M. Busquet, and A. Bar-Shalom, AIP Conference Proceedings 926, 206-15 (2007).

  4. An approach to averaging digitized plantagram curves.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hawes, M R; Heinemeyer, R; Sovak, D; Tory, B

    1994-07-01

    The averaging of outline shapes of the human foot for the purposes of determining information concerning foot shape and dimension within the context of comfort of fit of sport shoes is approached as a mathematical problem. An outline of the human footprint is obtained by standard procedures and the curvature is traced with a Hewlett Packard Digitizer. The paper describes the determination of an alignment axis, the identification of two ray centres and the division of the total curve into two overlapping arcs. Each arc is divided by equiangular rays which intersect chords between digitized points describing the arc. The radial distance of each ray is averaged within groups of foot lengths which vary by +/- 2.25 mm (approximately equal to 1/2 shoe size). The method has been used to determine average plantar curves in a study of 1197 North American males (Hawes and Sovak 1993).

  5. Exploiting scale dependence in cosmological averaging

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mattsson, Teppo; Ronkainen, Maria

    2008-01-01

    We study the role of scale dependence in the Buchert averaging method, using the flat Lemaitre–Tolman–Bondi model as a testing ground. Within this model, a single averaging scale gives predictions that are too coarse, but by replacing it with the distance of the objects R(z) for each redshift z, we find an O(1%) precision at z<2 in the averaged luminosity and angular diameter distances compared to their exact expressions. At low redshifts, we show the improvement for generic inhomogeneity profiles, and our numerical computations further verify it up to redshifts z∼2. At higher redshifts, the method breaks down due to its inability to capture the time evolution of the inhomogeneities. We also demonstrate that the running smoothing scale R(z) can mimic acceleration, suggesting that it could be at least as important as the backreaction in explaining dark energy as an inhomogeneity induced illusion

  6. Stochastic Averaging and Stochastic Extremum Seeking

    CERN Document Server

    Liu, Shu-Jun

    2012-01-01

    Stochastic Averaging and Stochastic Extremum Seeking develops methods of mathematical analysis inspired by the interest in reverse engineering  and analysis of bacterial  convergence by chemotaxis and to apply similar stochastic optimization techniques in other environments. The first half of the text presents significant advances in stochastic averaging theory, necessitated by the fact that existing theorems are restricted to systems with linear growth, globally exponentially stable average models, vanishing stochastic perturbations, and prevent analysis over infinite time horizon. The second half of the text introduces stochastic extremum seeking algorithms for model-free optimization of systems in real time using stochastic perturbations for estimation of their gradients. Both gradient- and Newton-based algorithms are presented, offering the user the choice between the simplicity of implementation (gradient) and the ability to achieve a known, arbitrary convergence rate (Newton). The design of algorithms...

  7. Aperture averaging in strong oceanic turbulence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gökçe, Muhsin Caner; Baykal, Yahya

    2018-04-01

    Receiver aperture averaging technique is employed in underwater wireless optical communication (UWOC) systems to mitigate the effects of oceanic turbulence, thus to improve the system performance. The irradiance flux variance is a measure of the intensity fluctuations on a lens of the receiver aperture. Using the modified Rytov theory which uses the small-scale and large-scale spatial filters, and our previously presented expression that shows the atmospheric structure constant in terms of oceanic turbulence parameters, we evaluate the irradiance flux variance and the aperture averaging factor of a spherical wave in strong oceanic turbulence. Irradiance flux variance variations are examined versus the oceanic turbulence parameters and the receiver aperture diameter are examined in strong oceanic turbulence. Also, the effect of the receiver aperture diameter on the aperture averaging factor is presented in strong oceanic turbulence.

  8. Regional averaging and scaling in relativistic cosmology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buchert, Thomas; Carfora, Mauro

    2002-01-01

    Averaged inhomogeneous cosmologies lie at the forefront of interest, since cosmological parameters such as the rate of expansion or the mass density are to be considered as volume-averaged quantities and only these can be compared with observations. For this reason the relevant parameters are intrinsically scale-dependent and one wishes to control this dependence without restricting the cosmological model by unphysical assumptions. In the latter respect we contrast our way to approach the averaging problem in relativistic cosmology with shortcomings of averaged Newtonian models. Explicitly, we investigate the scale-dependence of Eulerian volume averages of scalar functions on Riemannian three-manifolds. We propose a complementary view of a Lagrangian smoothing of (tensorial) variables as opposed to their Eulerian averaging on spatial domains. This programme is realized with the help of a global Ricci deformation flow for the metric. We explain rigorously the origin of the Ricci flow which, on heuristic grounds, has already been suggested as a possible candidate for smoothing the initial dataset for cosmological spacetimes. The smoothing of geometry implies a renormalization of averaged spatial variables. We discuss the results in terms of effective cosmological parameters that would be assigned to the smoothed cosmological spacetime. In particular, we find that on the smoothed spatial domain B-bar evaluated cosmological parameters obey Ω-bar B-bar m + Ω-bar B-bar R + Ω-bar B-bar A + Ω-bar B-bar Q 1, where Ω-bar B-bar m , Ω-bar B-bar R and Ω-bar B-bar A correspond to the standard Friedmannian parameters, while Ω-bar B-bar Q is a remnant of cosmic variance of expansion and shear fluctuations on the averaging domain. All these parameters are 'dressed' after smoothing out the geometrical fluctuations, and we give the relations of the 'dressed' to the 'bare' parameters. While the former provide the framework of interpreting observations with a 'Friedmannian bias

  9. Average: the juxtaposition of procedure and context

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watson, Jane; Chick, Helen; Callingham, Rosemary

    2014-09-01

    This paper presents recent data on the performance of 247 middle school students on questions concerning average in three contexts. Analysis includes considering levels of understanding linking definition and context, performance across contexts, the relative difficulty of tasks, and difference in performance for male and female students. The outcomes lead to a discussion of the expectations of the curriculum and its implementation, as well as assessment, in relation to students' skills in carrying out procedures and their understanding about the meaning of average in context.

  10. Average-case analysis of numerical problems

    CERN Document Server

    2000-01-01

    The average-case analysis of numerical problems is the counterpart of the more traditional worst-case approach. The analysis of average error and cost leads to new insight on numerical problems as well as to new algorithms. The book provides a survey of results that were mainly obtained during the last 10 years and also contains new results. The problems under consideration include approximation/optimal recovery and numerical integration of univariate and multivariate functions as well as zero-finding and global optimization. Background material, e.g. on reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces and random fields, is provided.

  11. Grassmann Averages for Scalable Robust PCA

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hauberg, Søren; Feragen, Aasa; Black, Michael J.

    2014-01-01

    As the collection of large datasets becomes increasingly automated, the occurrence of outliers will increase—“big data” implies “big outliers”. While principal component analysis (PCA) is often used to reduce the size of data, and scalable solutions exist, it is well-known that outliers can...... to vectors (subspaces) or elements of vectors; we focus on the latter and use a trimmed average. The resulting Trimmed Grassmann Average (TGA) is particularly appropriate for computer vision because it is robust to pixel outliers. The algorithm has low computational complexity and minimal memory requirements...

  12. Model averaging, optimal inference and habit formation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas H B FitzGerald

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Postulating that the brain performs approximate Bayesian inference generates principled and empirically testable models of neuronal function – the subject of much current interest in neuroscience and related disciplines. Current formulations address inference and learning under some assumed and particular model. In reality, organisms are often faced with an additional challenge – that of determining which model or models of their environment are the best for guiding behaviour. Bayesian model averaging – which says that an agent should weight the predictions of different models according to their evidence – provides a principled way to solve this problem. Importantly, because model evidence is determined by both the accuracy and complexity of the model, optimal inference requires that these be traded off against one another. This means an agent’s behaviour should show an equivalent balance. We hypothesise that Bayesian model averaging plays an important role in cognition, given that it is both optimal and realisable within a plausible neuronal architecture. We outline model averaging and how it might be implemented, and then explore a number of implications for brain and behaviour. In particular, we propose that model averaging can explain a number of apparently suboptimal phenomena within the framework of approximate (bounded Bayesian inference, focussing particularly upon the relationship between goal-directed and habitual behaviour.

  13. Generalized Jackknife Estimators of Weighted Average Derivatives

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cattaneo, Matias D.; Crump, Richard K.; Jansson, Michael

    With the aim of improving the quality of asymptotic distributional approximations for nonlinear functionals of nonparametric estimators, this paper revisits the large-sample properties of an important member of that class, namely a kernel-based weighted average derivative estimator. Asymptotic...

  14. Average beta measurement in EXTRAP T1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hedin, E.R.

    1988-12-01

    Beginning with the ideal MHD pressure balance equation, an expression for the average poloidal beta, Β Θ , is derived. A method for unobtrusively measuring the quantities used to evaluate Β Θ in Extrap T1 is described. The results if a series of measurements yielding Β Θ as a function of externally applied toroidal field are presented. (author)

  15. HIGH AVERAGE POWER OPTICAL FEL AMPLIFIERS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2005-01-01

    Historically, the first demonstration of the optical FEL was in an amplifier configuration at Stanford University [l]. There were other notable instances of amplifying a seed laser, such as the LLNL PALADIN amplifier [2] and the BNL ATF High-Gain Harmonic Generation FEL [3]. However, for the most part FELs are operated as oscillators or self amplified spontaneous emission devices. Yet, in wavelength regimes where a conventional laser seed can be used, the FEL can be used as an amplifier. One promising application is for very high average power generation, for instance FEL's with average power of 100 kW or more. The high electron beam power, high brightness and high efficiency that can be achieved with photoinjectors and superconducting Energy Recovery Linacs (ERL) combine well with the high-gain FEL amplifier to produce unprecedented average power FELs. This combination has a number of advantages. In particular, we show that for a given FEL power, an FEL amplifier can introduce lower energy spread in the beam as compared to a traditional oscillator. This properly gives the ERL based FEL amplifier a great wall-plug to optical power efficiency advantage. The optics for an amplifier is simple and compact. In addition to the general features of the high average power FEL amplifier, we will look at a 100 kW class FEL amplifier is being designed to operate on the 0.5 ampere Energy Recovery Linac which is under construction at Brookhaven National Laboratory's Collider-Accelerator Department

  16. Bayesian Averaging is Well-Temperated

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Lars Kai

    2000-01-01

    Bayesian predictions are stochastic just like predictions of any other inference scheme that generalize from a finite sample. While a simple variational argument shows that Bayes averaging is generalization optimal given that the prior matches the teacher parameter distribution the situation is l...

  17. Gibbs equilibrium averages and Bogolyubov measure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sankovich, D.P.

    2011-01-01

    Application of the functional integration methods in equilibrium statistical mechanics of quantum Bose-systems is considered. We show that Gibbs equilibrium averages of Bose-operators can be represented as path integrals over a special Gauss measure defined in the corresponding space of continuous functions. We consider some problems related to integration with respect to this measure

  18. High average-power induction linacs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prono, D.S.; Barrett, D.; Bowles, E.; Caporaso, G.J.; Chen, Yu-Jiuan; Clark, J.C.; Coffield, F.; Newton, M.A.; Nexsen, W.; Ravenscroft, D.; Turner, W.C.; Watson, J.A.

    1989-01-01

    Induction linear accelerators (LIAs) are inherently capable of accelerating several thousand amperes of ∼ 50-ns duration pulses to > 100 MeV. In this paper the authors report progress and status in the areas of duty factor and stray power management. These technologies are vital if LIAs are to attain high average power operation. 13 figs

  19. Function reconstruction from noisy local averages

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen Yu; Huang Jianguo; Han Weimin

    2008-01-01

    A regularization method is proposed for the function reconstruction from noisy local averages in any dimension. Error bounds for the approximate solution in L 2 -norm are derived. A number of numerical examples are provided to show computational performance of the method, with the regularization parameters selected by different strategies

  20. A singularity theorem based on spatial averages

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    journal of. July 2007 physics pp. 31–47. A singularity theorem based on spatial ... In this paper I would like to present a result which confirms – at least partially – ... A detailed analysis of how the model fits in with the .... Further, the statement that the spatial average ...... Financial support under grants FIS2004-01626 and no.

  1. Multiphase averaging of periodic soliton equations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Forest, M.G.

    1979-01-01

    The multiphase averaging of periodic soliton equations is considered. Particular attention is given to the periodic sine-Gordon and Korteweg-deVries (KdV) equations. The periodic sine-Gordon equation and its associated inverse spectral theory are analyzed, including a discussion of the spectral representations of exact, N-phase sine-Gordon solutions. The emphasis is on physical characteristics of the periodic waves, with a motivation from the well-known whole-line solitons. A canonical Hamiltonian approach for the modulational theory of N-phase waves is prescribed. A concrete illustration of this averaging method is provided with the periodic sine-Gordon equation; explicit averaging results are given only for the N = 1 case, laying a foundation for a more thorough treatment of the general N-phase problem. For the KdV equation, very general results are given for multiphase averaging of the N-phase waves. The single-phase results of Whitham are extended to general N phases, and more importantly, an invariant representation in terms of Abelian differentials on a Riemann surface is provided. Several consequences of this invariant representation are deduced, including strong evidence for the Hamiltonian structure of N-phase modulational equations

  2. Essays on model averaging and political economics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wang, W.

    2013-01-01

    This thesis first investigates various issues related with model averaging, and then evaluates two policies, i.e. West Development Drive in China and fiscal decentralization in U.S, using econometric tools. Chapter 2 proposes a hierarchical weighted least squares (HWALS) method to address multiple

  3. 7 CFR 1209.12 - On average.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 10 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false On average. 1209.12 Section 1209.12 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (MARKETING AGREEMENTS... CONSUMER INFORMATION ORDER Mushroom Promotion, Research, and Consumer Information Order Definitions § 1209...

  4. High average-power induction linacs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prono, D.S.; Barrett, D.; Bowles, E.

    1989-01-01

    Induction linear accelerators (LIAs) are inherently capable of accelerating several thousand amperes of /approximately/ 50-ns duration pulses to > 100 MeV. In this paper we report progress and status in the areas of duty factor and stray power management. These technologies are vital if LIAs are to attain high average power operation. 13 figs

  5. Average Costs versus Net Present Value

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    E.A. van der Laan (Erwin); R.H. Teunter (Ruud)

    2000-01-01

    textabstractWhile the net present value (NPV) approach is widely accepted as the right framework for studying production and inventory control systems, average cost (AC) models are more widely used. For the well known EOQ model it can be verified that (under certain conditions) the AC approach gives

  6. Average beta-beating from random errors

    CERN Document Server

    Tomas Garcia, Rogelio; Langner, Andy Sven; Malina, Lukas; Franchi, Andrea; CERN. Geneva. ATS Department

    2018-01-01

    The impact of random errors on average β-beating is studied via analytical derivations and simulations. A systematic positive β-beating is expected from random errors quadratic with the sources or, equivalently, with the rms β-beating. However, random errors do not have a systematic effect on the tune.

  7. Reliability Estimates for Undergraduate Grade Point Average

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westrick, Paul A.

    2017-01-01

    Undergraduate grade point average (GPA) is a commonly employed measure in educational research, serving as a criterion or as a predictor depending on the research question. Over the decades, researchers have used a variety of reliability coefficients to estimate the reliability of undergraduate GPA, which suggests that there has been no consensus…

  8. Moving walls and geometric phases

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Facchi, Paolo, E-mail: paolo.facchi@ba.infn.it [Dipartimento di Fisica and MECENAS, Università di Bari, I-70126 Bari (Italy); INFN, Sezione di Bari, I-70126 Bari (Italy); Garnero, Giancarlo, E-mail: giancarlo.garnero@uniba.it [Dipartimento di Fisica and MECENAS, Università di Bari, I-70126 Bari (Italy); INFN, Sezione di Bari, I-70126 Bari (Italy); Marmo, Giuseppe [Dipartimento di Scienze Fisiche and MECENAS, Università di Napoli “Federico II”, I-80126 Napoli (Italy); INFN, Sezione di Napoli, I-80126 Napoli (Italy); Samuel, Joseph [Raman Research Institute, 560080 Bangalore (India)

    2016-09-15

    We unveil the existence of a non-trivial Berry phase associated to the dynamics of a quantum particle in a one dimensional box with moving walls. It is shown that a suitable choice of boundary conditions has to be made in order to preserve unitarity. For these boundary conditions we compute explicitly the geometric phase two-form on the parameter space. The unboundedness of the Hamiltonian describing the system leads to a natural prescription of renormalization for divergent contributions arising from the boundary.

  9. Moving Tourism Social Entrepreneurship Forward

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sheldon, Pauline; Dredge, Dianne; Daniele, Roberto

    2017-01-01

    This chapter concludes the book by considering the role that research and education can play to move the TSE agenda forward. In addition to consolidating the chapter authors’ thoughts about the future of SE and tourism, it also lays out some directions for research tracks in the future....... It considers the changes needed in research approaches, in our universities, our curricula, our learners, and ourselves as academics. These changes we hope will stimulate the dialog on how TSE can mobilize the energy, vision and social spirit of those who seek to change the world for the better through tourism....

  10. Dark matter. A light move

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Redondo, Javier [Muenchen Univ. (Germany). Arnold Sommerfeld Center; Max-Planck-Institut fuer Physik, Muenchen (Germany); Doebrich, Babette [Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron (DESY), Hamburg (Germany)

    2013-11-15

    This proceedings contribution reports from the workshop Dark Matter - a light move, held at DESY in Hamburg in June 2013. Dark Matter particle candidates span a huge parameter range. In particular, well motivated candidates exist also in the sub-eV mass region, for example the axion. Whilst a plethora of searches for rather heavy Dark Matter particles exists, there are only very few experiments aimed at direct detection of sub-eV Dark Matter to this date. The aim of our workshop was to discuss if and how this could be changed in the near future.

  11. Live histograms in moving windows

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhil'tsov, V.E.

    1989-01-01

    Application of computer graphics for specific hardware testing is discussed. The hardware is position sensitive detector (multiwire proportional chamber) which is used in high energy physics experiments, and real-out electronics for it. Testing program is described (XPERT), which utilises multi-window user interface. Data are represented as histograms in windows. The windows on the screen may be moved, reordered, their sizes may be changed. Histograms may be put to any window, and hardcopy may be made. Some program internals are discussed. The computer environment is quite simple: MS-DOS IBM PC/XT, 256 KB RAM, CGA, 5.25'' FD, Epson MX. 4 refs.; 7 figs

  12. Dark matter. A light move

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Redondo, Javier; Doebrich, Babette

    2013-11-01

    This proceedings contribution reports from the workshop Dark Matter - a light move, held at DESY in Hamburg in June 2013. Dark Matter particle candidates span a huge parameter range. In particular, well motivated candidates exist also in the sub-eV mass region, for example the axion. Whilst a plethora of searches for rather heavy Dark Matter particles exists, there are only very few experiments aimed at direct detection of sub-eV Dark Matter to this date. The aim of our workshop was to discuss if and how this could be changed in the near future.

  13. Tendon surveillance requirements - average tendon force

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fulton, J.F.

    1982-01-01

    Proposed Rev. 3 to USNRC Reg. Guide 1.35 discusses the need for comparing, for individual tendons, the measured and predicted lift-off forces. Such a comparison is intended to detect any abnormal tendon force loss which might occur. Recognizing that there are uncertainties in the prediction of tendon losses, proposed Guide 1.35.1 has allowed specific tolerances on the fundamental losses. Thus, the lift-off force acceptance criteria for individual tendons appearing in Reg. Guide 1.35, Proposed Rev. 3, is stated relative to a lower bound predicted tendon force, which is obtained using the 'plus' tolerances on the fundamental losses. There is an additional acceptance criterion for the lift-off forces which is not specifically addressed in these two Reg. Guides; however, it is included in a proposed Subsection IWX to ASME Code Section XI. This criterion is based on the overriding requirement that the magnitude of prestress in the containment structure be sufficeint to meet the minimum prestress design requirements. This design requirement can be expressed as an average tendon force for each group of vertical hoop, or dome tendons. For the purpose of comparing the actual tendon forces with the required average tendon force, the lift-off forces measured for a sample of tendons within each group can be averaged to construct the average force for the entire group. However, the individual lift-off forces must be 'corrected' (normalized) prior to obtaining the sample average. This paper derives the correction factor to be used for this purpose. (orig./RW)

  14. Autonomous Landing on Moving Platforms

    KAUST Repository

    Mendoza Chavez, Gilberto

    2016-08-01

    This thesis investigates autonomous landing of a micro air vehicle (MAV) on a nonstationary ground platform. Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and micro air vehicles (MAVs) are becoming every day more ubiquitous. Nonetheless, many applications still require specialized human pilots or supervisors. Current research is focusing on augmenting the scope of tasks that these vehicles are able to accomplish autonomously. Precise autonomous landing on moving platforms is essential for self-deployment and recovery of MAVs, but it remains a challenging task for both autonomous and piloted vehicles. Model Predictive Control (MPC) is a widely used and effective scheme to control constrained systems. One of its variants, output-feedback tube-based MPC, ensures robust stability for systems with bounded disturbances under system state reconstruction. This thesis proposes a MAV control strategy based on this variant of MPC to perform rapid and precise autonomous landing on moving targets whose nominal (uncommitted) trajectory and velocity are slowly varying. The proposed approach is demonstrated on an experimental setup.

  15. Moving as an interspecies unit

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mondeme, Chloé

    In urban spaces, people are normatively expected to move, to be mobile. In such “evolving ecologies” (Haddington, Nevile and Mondada, 2013), pedestrians, cyclists, and car-drivers are constantly adjusting to one another's mobility. Stillness, conversely, is noticed and somehow disruptive (Hadding......In urban spaces, people are normatively expected to move, to be mobile. In such “evolving ecologies” (Haddington, Nevile and Mondada, 2013), pedestrians, cyclists, and car-drivers are constantly adjusting to one another's mobility. Stillness, conversely, is noticed and somehow disruptive...... (Haddington, 2012 ; Lan Hing Ting & al., 2013). Staying immobile, for instance just before crossing a street, is in that respect a non-dynamic action yet to account for. Will the projected next action of the still participant be to wait and stay for a while, or to cross the street? To put is in other words......, how can immobility be unproblematically bound to a waiting status? What are the embodied resources used to be ‘doing wainting’ (Ayass, 2015)? In this presentation we will look at a collection of street crossings accomplished by blind persons with their guide-dogs. In the absence of visual access...

  16. Optimization of seasonal ARIMA models using differential evolution - simulated annealing (DESA) algorithm in forecasting dengue cases in Baguio City

    Science.gov (United States)

    Addawe, Rizavel C.; Addawe, Joel M.; Magadia, Joselito C.

    2016-10-01

    Accurate forecasting of dengue cases would significantly improve epidemic prevention and control capabilities. This paper attempts to provide useful models in forecasting dengue epidemic specific to the young and adult population of Baguio City. To capture the seasonal variations in dengue incidence, this paper develops a robust modeling approach to identify and estimate seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) models in the presence of additive outliers. Since the least squares estimators are not robust in the presence of outliers, we suggest a robust estimation based on winsorized and reweighted least squares estimators. A hybrid algorithm, Differential Evolution - Simulated Annealing (DESA), is used to identify and estimate the parameters of the optimal SARIMA model. The method is applied to the monthly reported dengue cases in Baguio City, Philippines.

  17. Forecasting dengue hemorrhagic fever cases using ARIMA model: a case study in Asahan district

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siregar, Fazidah A.; Makmur, Tri; Saprin, S.

    2018-01-01

    Time series analysis had been increasingly used to forecast the number of dengue hemorrhagic fever in many studies. Since no vaccine exist and poor public health infrastructure, predicting the occurrence of dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) is crucial. This study was conducted to determine trend and forecasting the occurrence of DHF in Asahan district, North Sumatera Province. Monthly reported dengue cases for the years 2012-2016 were obtained from the district health offices. A time series analysis was conducted by Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) modeling to forecast the occurrence of DHF. The results demonstrated that the reported DHF cases showed a seasonal variation. The SARIMA (1,0,0)(0,1,1)12 model was the best model and adequate for the data. The SARIMA model for DHF is necessary and could applied to predict the incidence of DHF in Asahan district and assist with design public health maesures to prevent and control the diseases.

  18. Detrending moving-average cross-correlation coefficient: Measuring cross-correlations between non-stationary series

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Krištoufek, Ladislav

    Roč. 406 , č. 1 (2014), s. 169-175 ISSN 0378-4371 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GP14-11402P Grant - others:GA ČR(CZ) GAP402/11/0948 Program:GA Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : correlations * econophysics * non-stationarity Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 1.732, year: 2014 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2014/E/kristoufek-0433529.pdf

  19. Comparison of arma (autoregressive moving average) with mtm (markov transition matrix): modeling simulation and prediction of wind data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jafri, Y.Z.; Kamal, L.

    2009-01-01

    A generalized theory of ARMA modeling, covering a wide range of researches. with model identification, order determination, estimation and diagnostic checking is presented. We evolved standardization of wind data to overcome non-stationarity. With our techniques on generating synthetic values of wind series using MTM, we modeled and simulated autocorrelated function (ACF). MTM is found relatively a better simulator as compared to ARMA. We used twenty year of wind data. MTM required fast computation and suitable algorithm for backward calculations to yield ACF values. We found ARMA (p, q) model suitableble for both large range (1-6 hours) and short range (1-2 hours). This indicates that forecast values can be considered for appropriate wind energy conversion system. (author)

  20. The Prediction of Exchange Rates with the Use of Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving-Average Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniela Spiesová

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Currency market is recently the largest world market during the existence of which there have been many theories regarding the prediction of the development of exchange rates based on macroeconomic, microeconomic, statistic and other models. The aim of this paper is to identify the adequate model for the prediction of non-stationary time series of exchange rates and then use this model to predict the trend of the development of European currencies against Euro. The uniqueness of this paper is in the fact that there are many expert studies dealing with the prediction of the currency pairs rates of the American dollar with other currency but there is only a limited number of scientific studies concerned with the long-term prediction of European currencies with the help of the integrated ARMA models even though the development of exchange rates has a crucial impact on all levels of economy and its prediction is an important indicator for individual countries, banks, companies and businessmen as well as for investors. The results of this study confirm that to predict the conditional variance and then to estimate the future values of exchange rates, it is adequate to use the ARIMA (1,1,1 model without constant, or ARIMA [(1,7,1,(1,7] model, where in the long-term, the square root of the conditional variance inclines towards stable value.

  1. Statistics on exponential averaging of periodograms

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Peeters, T.T.J.M. [Netherlands Energy Research Foundation (ECN), Petten (Netherlands); Ciftcioglu, Oe. [Istanbul Technical Univ. (Turkey). Dept. of Electrical Engineering

    1994-11-01

    The algorithm of exponential averaging applied to subsequent periodograms of a stochastic process is used to estimate the power spectral density (PSD). For an independent process, assuming the periodogram estimates to be distributed according to a {chi}{sup 2} distribution with 2 degrees of freedom, the probability density function (PDF) of the PSD estimate is derived. A closed expression is obtained for the moments of the distribution. Surprisingly, the proof of this expression features some new insights into the partitions and Eulers infinite product. For large values of the time constant of the averaging process, examination of the cumulant generating function shows that the PDF approximates the Gaussian distribution. Although restrictions for the statistics are seemingly tight, simulation of a real process indicates a wider applicability of the theory. (orig.).

  2. Statistics on exponential averaging of periodograms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peeters, T.T.J.M.; Ciftcioglu, Oe.

    1994-11-01

    The algorithm of exponential averaging applied to subsequent periodograms of a stochastic process is used to estimate the power spectral density (PSD). For an independent process, assuming the periodogram estimates to be distributed according to a χ 2 distribution with 2 degrees of freedom, the probability density function (PDF) of the PSD estimate is derived. A closed expression is obtained for the moments of the distribution. Surprisingly, the proof of this expression features some new insights into the partitions and Eulers infinite product. For large values of the time constant of the averaging process, examination of the cumulant generating function shows that the PDF approximates the Gaussian distribution. Although restrictions for the statistics are seemingly tight, simulation of a real process indicates a wider applicability of the theory. (orig.)

  3. ANALYSIS OF THE FACTORS AFFECTING THE AVERAGE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carmen BOGHEAN

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Productivity in agriculture most relevantly and concisely expresses the economic efficiency of using the factors of production. Labour productivity is affected by a considerable number of variables (including the relationship system and interdependence between factors, which differ in each economic sector and influence it, giving rise to a series of technical, economic and organizational idiosyncrasies. The purpose of this paper is to analyse the underlying factors of the average work productivity in agriculture, forestry and fishing. The analysis will take into account the data concerning the economically active population and the gross added value in agriculture, forestry and fishing in Romania during 2008-2011. The distribution of the average work productivity per factors affecting it is conducted by means of the u-substitution method.

  4. Weighted estimates for the averaging integral operator

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Opic, Bohumír; Rákosník, Jiří

    2010-01-01

    Roč. 61, č. 3 (2010), s. 253-262 ISSN 0010-0757 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA201/05/2033; GA ČR GA201/08/0383 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10190503 Keywords : averaging integral operator * weighted Lebesgue spaces * weights Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 0.474, year: 2010 http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2FBF03191231

  5. Average Transverse Momentum Quantities Approaching the Lightfront

    OpenAIRE

    Boer, Daniel

    2015-01-01

    In this contribution to Light Cone 2014, three average transverse momentum quantities are discussed: the Sivers shift, the dijet imbalance, and the $p_T$ broadening. The definitions of these quantities involve integrals over all transverse momenta that are overly sensitive to the region of large transverse momenta, which conveys little information about the transverse momentum distributions of quarks and gluons inside hadrons. TMD factorization naturally suggests alternative definitions of su...

  6. Time-averaged MSD of Brownian motion

    OpenAIRE

    Andreanov, Alexei; Grebenkov, Denis

    2012-01-01

    We study the statistical properties of the time-averaged mean-square displacements (TAMSD). This is a standard non-local quadratic functional for inferring the diffusion coefficient from an individual random trajectory of a diffusing tracer in single-particle tracking experiments. For Brownian motion, we derive an exact formula for the Laplace transform of the probability density of the TAMSD by mapping the original problem onto chains of coupled harmonic oscillators. From this formula, we de...

  7. Average configuration of the geomagnetic tail

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fairfield, D.H.

    1979-01-01

    Over 3000 hours of Imp 6 magnetic field data obtained between 20 and 33 R/sub E/ in the geomagnetic tail have been used in a statistical study of the tail configuration. A distribution of 2.5-min averages of B/sub z/ as a function of position across the tail reveals that more flux crosses the equatorial plane near the dawn and dusk flanks (B-bar/sub z/=3.γ) than near midnight (B-bar/sub z/=1.8γ). The tail field projected in the solar magnetospheric equatorial plane deviates from the x axis due to flaring and solar wind aberration by an angle α=-0.9 Y/sub SM/-2.7, where Y/sub SM/ is in earth radii and α is in degrees. After removing these effects, the B/sub y/ component of the tail field is found to depend on interplanetary sector structure. During an 'away' sector the B/sub y/ component of the tail field is on average 0.5γ greater than that during a 'toward' sector, a result that is true in both tail lobes and is independent of location across the tail. This effect means the average field reversal between northern and southern lobes of the tail is more often 178 0 rather than the 180 0 that is generally supposed

  8. Unscrambling The "Average User" Of Habbo Hotel

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mikael Johnson

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available The “user” is an ambiguous concept in human-computer interaction and information systems. Analyses of users as social actors, participants, or configured users delineate approaches to studying design-use relationships. Here, a developer’s reference to a figure of speech, termed the “average user,” is contrasted with design guidelines. The aim is to create an understanding about categorization practices in design through a case study about the virtual community, Habbo Hotel. A qualitative analysis highlighted not only the meaning of the “average user,” but also the work that both the developer and the category contribute to this meaning. The average user a represents the unknown, b influences the boundaries of the target user groups, c legitimizes the designer to disregard marginal user feedback, and d keeps the design space open, thus allowing for creativity. The analysis shows how design and use are intertwined and highlights the developers’ role in governing different users’ interests.

  9. Changing mortality and average cohort life expectancy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert Schoen

    2005-10-01

    Full Text Available Period life expectancy varies with changes in mortality, and should not be confused with the life expectancy of those alive during that period. Given past and likely future mortality changes, a recent debate has arisen on the usefulness of the period life expectancy as the leading measure of survivorship. An alternative aggregate measure of period mortality which has been seen as less sensitive to period changes, the cross-sectional average length of life (CAL has been proposed as an alternative, but has received only limited empirical or analytical examination. Here, we introduce a new measure, the average cohort life expectancy (ACLE, to provide a precise measure of the average length of life of cohorts alive at a given time. To compare the performance of ACLE with CAL and with period and cohort life expectancy, we first use population models with changing mortality. Then the four aggregate measures of mortality are calculated for England and Wales, Norway, and Switzerland for the years 1880 to 2000. CAL is found to be sensitive to past and present changes in death rates. ACLE requires the most data, but gives the best representation of the survivorship of cohorts present at a given time.

  10. Human Capital Theory and Internal Migration: Do Average Outcomes Distort Our View of Migrant Motives?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Korpi, Martin; Clark, William A W

    2017-05-01

    By modelling the distribution of percentage income gains for movers in Sweden, using multinomial logistic regression, this paper shows that those receiving large pecuniary returns from migration are primarily those moving to the larger metropolitan areas and those with higher education, and that there is much more variability in income gains than what is often assumed in models of average gains to migration. This suggests that human capital models of internal migration often overemphasize the job and income motive for moving, and fail to explore where and when human capital motivated migration occurs.

  11. Reasons for Moving in Nonmetro Iowa

    OpenAIRE

    Burke, Sandra Charvat; Edelman, Mark

    2007-01-01

    This study highlights the experiences of people who have recently moved to or from 19 selected nonmetropolitan counties of Iowa. This report highlights work, family, community, and housing reasons for moving. The purpose is to increase understanding about why people move so community leaders and citizens can develop actionable strategies for attracting and retaining population.

  12. Prototype moving-ring reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, A.C. Jr.; Ashworth, C.P.; Abreu, K.E.

    1982-01-01

    We have completed a design of the Prototype Moving-Ring Reactor. The fusion fuel is confined in current-carrying rings of magnetically-field-reversed plasma (Compact Toroids). The plasma rings, formed by a coaxial plasma gun, undergo adiabatic magnetic compression to ignition temperature while they are being injected into the reactor's burner section. The cylindrical burner chamber is divided into three burn stations. Separator coils and a slight axial guide field gradient are used to shuttle the ignited toroids rapidly from one burn station to the next, pausing for 1/3 of the total burn time at each station. D-T- 3 He ice pellets refuel the rings at a rate which maintains constant radiated power

  13. AHP 21: Review: Moving Mountains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    William B. Noseworthy

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Moving Mountains stands out among recent discussions of the Southeast Asian Highlands, drawing from twelve contributors with extensive field experience living and working in locales closed to nonCommunist academics between 1945 and 1990 (3. The authors' methodologies focus on the anthropological approach of participant observation combined with oral history. Previously, substantial research had been confined to the experience of "hill tribes" in Northern Thailand (11, unless one gained access to the massive collections of French language research under the École Française d'Extrême Orient (EFEO or the Société Asiatique (SA, both in Paris. As such, this volume's contributors are able to ring out the voices of Southeast Asian Massif populations in a way that demonstrates a mindful assembly of research, while carefully narrating a more complex view of the region than that presented by Scott's (2009:22 "zones of refuge." ...

  14. Why Make the World Move?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Keith Evan Green

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The next horizons of human-computer interaction promise a whirling world of digital bytes, physical bits, and their hybrids. Are human beings prepared to inhabit such cyber-physical, adaptive environments? Assuming an optimistic view, this chapter offers a reply, drawing from art and art history, environmental design, literature, psychology, and evolutionary anthropology, to identify wide-ranging motivations for the design of such “new places” of human-computer interaction. Moreover, the author makes a plea to researchers focused in the domain of adaptive environments to pause and take a longer, more comprehensive, more self-reflective view to see what we’re doing, to recognize where we are, and to possibly find ourselves and others within our designed artifacts and systems that make the world move.

  15. Moving Forest di Expo 2015

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michela Moretti

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The paper proposes a reading of the Expo 2015 landscape project through the essay "Moving Forest "by Franco Zagari and Benedetto Selleri; in which the authors trace the design process of the exposition site. It describes the design features of the green spaces that surround and mark the Exposition City. The green project is the connection between innovation, technology and rural landscape, like that surrounds the site. The Expo map represents one of the largest landscape projects in the last years in Europe, with its 300,000 square meters, organized in a sequence of different landscape that improve a gradual transition from the rural and natural landscape outside, to the urban landscape inside the exposition city.

  16. Mobility narratives that move me

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lysgaard, Jonas Andreasen; Kronlid, David

    and fiction. By opposing the classic anthropocentric ontological split between human (discourse) and object, fiction and Reality, OOO opens up for a new understanding of the role of narratives as independent objects on the same scale as grains of sand, universities, axolotls and planets. In short...... of speed, acceleration, the rhythm of technogenic moving and mooring, which can be translated into an understanding of our own movements and moorings through life and how we engage with new things, such as mediating new information through a certain pace, rhythm, movement, acceleration, slowing down....... This fictive/Real example of a narrative object illustrates that regardless of the metaphysical status of what/who we encounter in education and throughout life, if this experience becomes meaningful to us, we are navigating around them, towards them, and enmesh with them in the same principle ways...

  17. Alpha detection on moving surfaces

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    MacArthur, D.; Orr, C.; Luff, C.

    1998-01-01

    Both environmental restoration (ER) and decontamination and decommissioning (D and D) require characterization of large surface areas (walls, floors, in situ soil, soil and rubble on a conveyor belt, etc.) for radioactive contamination. Many facilities which have processed alpha active material such as plutonium or uranium require effective and efficient characterization for alpha contamination. Traditional methods for alpha surface characterization are limited by the short range and poor penetration of alpha particles. These probes are only sensitive to contamination located directly under the probe. Furthermore, the probe must be held close to the surface to be monitored in order to avoid excessive losses in the ambient air. The combination of proximity and thin detector windows can easily cause instrument damage unless extreme care is taken. The long-range alpha detection (LRAD) system addresses these problems by detecting the ions generated by alpha particles interacting with ambient air rather than the alpha particle directly. Thus, detectors based on LRAD overcome the limitations due to alpha particle range (the ions can travel many meters as opposed to the several-centimeter alpha particle range) and penetrating ability (an LRAD-based detector has no window). Unfortunately, all LRAD-based detectors described previously are static devices, i.e., these detectors cannot be used over surfaces which are continuously moving. In this paper, the authors report on the first tests of two techniques (the electrostatic ion seal and the gridded electrostatic LRAD detector) which extend the capabilities of LRAD surface monitors to use over moving surfaces. This dynamic surface monitoring system was developed jointly by Los Alamos National Laboratory and at BNFL Instruments. All testing was performed at the BNFL Instruments facility in the UK

  18. Moving standard deviation and moving sum of outliers as quality tools for monitoring analytical precision.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Jiakai; Tan, Chin Hon; Badrick, Tony; Loh, Tze Ping

    2018-02-01

    An increase in analytical imprecision (expressed as CV a ) can introduce additional variability (i.e. noise) to the patient results, which poses a challenge to the optimal management of patients. Relatively little work has been done to address the need for continuous monitoring of analytical imprecision. Through numerical simulations, we describe the use of moving standard deviation (movSD) and a recently described moving sum of outlier (movSO) patient results as means for detecting increased analytical imprecision, and compare their performances against internal quality control (QC) and the average of normal (AoN) approaches. The power of detecting an increase in CV a is suboptimal under routine internal QC procedures. The AoN technique almost always had the highest average number of patient results affected before error detection (ANPed), indicating that it had generally the worst capability for detecting an increased CV a . On the other hand, the movSD and movSO approaches were able to detect an increased CV a at significantly lower ANPed, particularly for measurands that displayed a relatively small ratio of biological variation to CV a. CONCLUSION: The movSD and movSO approaches are effective in detecting an increase in CV a for high-risk measurands with small biological variation. Their performance is relatively poor when the biological variation is large. However, the clinical risks of an increase in analytical imprecision is attenuated for these measurands as an increased analytical imprecision will only add marginally to the total variation and less likely to impact on the clinical care. Copyright © 2017 The Canadian Society of Clinical Chemists. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Operator product expansion and its thermal average

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mallik, S [Saha Inst. of Nuclear Physics, Calcutta (India)

    1998-05-01

    QCD sum rules at finite temperature, like the ones at zero temperature, require the coefficients of local operators, which arise in the short distance expansion of the thermal average of two-point functions of currents. We extend the configuration space method, applied earlier at zero temperature, to the case at finite temperature. We find that, upto dimension four, two new operators arise, in addition to the two appearing already in the vacuum correlation functions. It is argued that the new operators would contribute substantially to the sum rules, when the temperature is not too low. (orig.) 7 refs.

  20. Fluctuations of wavefunctions about their classical average

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benet, L; Flores, J; Hernandez-Saldana, H; Izrailev, F M; Leyvraz, F; Seligman, T H

    2003-01-01

    Quantum-classical correspondence for the average shape of eigenfunctions and the local spectral density of states are well-known facts. In this paper, the fluctuations of the quantum wavefunctions around the classical value are discussed. A simple random matrix model leads to a Gaussian distribution of the amplitudes whose width is determined by the classical shape of the eigenfunction. To compare this prediction with numerical calculations in chaotic models of coupled quartic oscillators, we develop a rescaling method for the components. The expectations are broadly confirmed, but deviations due to scars are observed. This effect is much reduced when both Hamiltonians have chaotic dynamics

  1. Phase-averaged transport for quasiperiodic Hamiltonians

    CERN Document Server

    Bellissard, J; Schulz-Baldes, H

    2002-01-01

    For a class of discrete quasi-periodic Schroedinger operators defined by covariant re- presentations of the rotation algebra, a lower bound on phase-averaged transport in terms of the multifractal dimensions of the density of states is proven. This result is established under a Diophantine condition on the incommensuration parameter. The relevant class of operators is distinguished by invariance with respect to symmetry automorphisms of the rotation algebra. It includes the critical Harper (almost-Mathieu) operator. As a by-product, a new solution of the frame problem associated with Weyl-Heisenberg-Gabor lattices of coherent states is given.

  2. Baseline-dependent averaging in radio interferometry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wijnholds, S. J.; Willis, A. G.; Salvini, S.

    2018-05-01

    This paper presents a detailed analysis of the applicability and benefits of baseline-dependent averaging (BDA) in modern radio interferometers and in particular the Square Kilometre Array. We demonstrate that BDA does not affect the information content of the data other than a well-defined decorrelation loss for which closed form expressions are readily available. We verify these theoretical findings using simulations. We therefore conclude that BDA can be used reliably in modern radio interferometry allowing a reduction of visibility data volume (and hence processing costs for handling visibility data) by more than 80 per cent.

  3. Multistage parallel-serial time averaging filters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Theodosiou, G.E.

    1980-01-01

    Here, a new time averaging circuit design, the 'parallel filter' is presented, which can reduce the time jitter, introduced in time measurements using counters of large dimensions. This parallel filter could be considered as a single stage unit circuit which can be repeated an arbitrary number of times in series, thus providing a parallel-serial filter type as a result. The main advantages of such a filter over a serial one are much less electronic gate jitter and time delay for the same amount of total time uncertainty reduction. (orig.)

  4. Time-averaged MSD of Brownian motion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andreanov, Alexei; Grebenkov, Denis S

    2012-01-01

    We study the statistical properties of the time-averaged mean-square displacements (TAMSD). This is a standard non-local quadratic functional for inferring the diffusion coefficient from an individual random trajectory of a diffusing tracer in single-particle tracking experiments. For Brownian motion, we derive an exact formula for the Laplace transform of the probability density of the TAMSD by mapping the original problem onto chains of coupled harmonic oscillators. From this formula, we deduce the first four cumulant moments of the TAMSD, the asymptotic behavior of the probability density and its accurate approximation by a generalized Gamma distribution

  5. Time-dependent angularly averaged inverse transport

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bal, Guillaume; Jollivet, Alexandre

    2009-01-01

    This paper concerns the reconstruction of the absorption and scattering parameters in a time-dependent linear transport equation from knowledge of angularly averaged measurements performed at the boundary of a domain of interest. Such measurement settings find applications in medical and geophysical imaging. We show that the absorption coefficient and the spatial component of the scattering coefficient are uniquely determined by such measurements. We obtain stability results on the reconstruction of the absorption and scattering parameters with respect to the measured albedo operator. The stability results are obtained by a precise decomposition of the measurements into components with different singular behavior in the time domain

  6. Independence, Odd Girth, and Average Degree

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Löwenstein, Christian; Pedersen, Anders Sune; Rautenbach, Dieter

    2011-01-01

      We prove several tight lower bounds in terms of the order and the average degree for the independence number of graphs that are connected and/or satisfy some odd girth condition. Our main result is the extension of a lower bound for the independence number of triangle-free graphs of maximum...... degree at most three due to Heckman and Thomas [Discrete Math 233 (2001), 233–237] to arbitrary triangle-free graphs. For connected triangle-free graphs of order n and size m, our result implies the existence of an independent set of order at least (4n−m−1) / 7.  ...

  7. Bootstrapping Density-Weighted Average Derivatives

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cattaneo, Matias D.; Crump, Richard K.; Jansson, Michael

    Employing the "small bandwidth" asymptotic framework of Cattaneo, Crump, and Jansson (2009), this paper studies the properties of a variety of bootstrap-based inference procedures associated with the kernel-based density-weighted averaged derivative estimator proposed by Powell, Stock, and Stoker...... (1989). In many cases validity of bootstrap-based inference procedures is found to depend crucially on whether the bandwidth sequence satisfies a particular (asymptotic linearity) condition. An exception to this rule occurs for inference procedures involving a studentized estimator employing a "robust...

  8. Average Nuclear properties based on statistical model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    El-Jaick, L.J.

    1974-01-01

    The rough properties of nuclei were investigated by statistical model, in systems with the same and different number of protons and neutrons, separately, considering the Coulomb energy in the last system. Some average nuclear properties were calculated based on the energy density of nuclear matter, from Weizsscker-Beth mass semiempiric formulae, generalized for compressible nuclei. In the study of a s surface energy coefficient, the great influence exercised by Coulomb energy and nuclear compressibility was verified. For a good adjust of beta stability lines and mass excess, the surface symmetry energy were established. (M.C.K.) [pt

  9. Time-averaged MSD of Brownian motion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andreanov, Alexei; Grebenkov, Denis S.

    2012-07-01

    We study the statistical properties of the time-averaged mean-square displacements (TAMSD). This is a standard non-local quadratic functional for inferring the diffusion coefficient from an individual random trajectory of a diffusing tracer in single-particle tracking experiments. For Brownian motion, we derive an exact formula for the Laplace transform of the probability density of the TAMSD by mapping the original problem onto chains of coupled harmonic oscillators. From this formula, we deduce the first four cumulant moments of the TAMSD, the asymptotic behavior of the probability density and its accurate approximation by a generalized Gamma distribution.

  10. Bayesian model averaging and weighted average least squares : Equivariance, stability, and numerical issues

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    De Luca, G.; Magnus, J.R.

    2011-01-01

    In this article, we describe the estimation of linear regression models with uncertainty about the choice of the explanatory variables. We introduce the Stata commands bma and wals, which implement, respectively, the exact Bayesian model-averaging estimator and the weighted-average least-squares

  11. Parents' Reactions to Finding Out That Their Children Have Average or above Average IQ Scores.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dirks, Jean; And Others

    1983-01-01

    Parents of 41 children who had been given an individually-administered intelligence test were contacted 19 months after testing. Parents of average IQ children were less accurate in their memory of test results. Children with above average IQ experienced extremely low frequencies of sibling rivalry, conceit or pressure. (Author/HLM)

  12. Trajectory averaging for stochastic approximation MCMC algorithms

    KAUST Repository

    Liang, Faming

    2010-10-01

    The subject of stochastic approximation was founded by Robbins and Monro [Ann. Math. Statist. 22 (1951) 400-407]. After five decades of continual development, it has developed into an important area in systems control and optimization, and it has also served as a prototype for the development of adaptive algorithms for on-line estimation and control of stochastic systems. Recently, it has been used in statistics with Markov chain Monte Carlo for solving maximum likelihood estimation problems and for general simulation and optimizations. In this paper, we first show that the trajectory averaging estimator is asymptotically efficient for the stochastic approximation MCMC (SAMCMC) algorithm under mild conditions, and then apply this result to the stochastic approximation Monte Carlo algorithm [Liang, Liu and Carroll J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 102 (2007) 305-320]. The application of the trajectory averaging estimator to other stochastic approximationMCMC algorithms, for example, a stochastic approximation MLE algorithm for missing data problems, is also considered in the paper. © Institute of Mathematical Statistics, 2010.

  13. Averaged null energy condition from causality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartman, Thomas; Kundu, Sandipan; Tajdini, Amirhossein

    2017-07-01

    Unitary, Lorentz-invariant quantum field theories in flat spacetime obey mi-crocausality: commutators vanish at spacelike separation. For interacting theories in more than two dimensions, we show that this implies that the averaged null energy, ∫ duT uu , must be non-negative. This non-local operator appears in the operator product expansion of local operators in the lightcone limit, and therefore contributes to n-point functions. We derive a sum rule that isolates this contribution and is manifestly positive. The argument also applies to certain higher spin operators other than the stress tensor, generating an infinite family of new constraints of the form ∫ duX uuu··· u ≥ 0. These lead to new inequalities for the coupling constants of spinning operators in conformal field theory, which include as special cases (but are generally stronger than) the existing constraints from the lightcone bootstrap, deep inelastic scattering, conformal collider methods, and relative entropy. We also comment on the relation to the recent derivation of the averaged null energy condition from relative entropy, and suggest a more general connection between causality and information-theoretic inequalities in QFT.

  14. Beta-energy averaging and beta spectra

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stamatelatos, M.G.; England, T.R.

    1976-07-01

    A simple yet highly accurate method for approximately calculating spectrum-averaged beta energies and beta spectra for radioactive nuclei is presented. This method should prove useful for users who wish to obtain accurate answers without complicated calculations of Fermi functions, complex gamma functions, and time-consuming numerical integrations as required by the more exact theoretical expressions. Therefore, this method should be a good time-saving alternative for investigators who need to make calculations involving large numbers of nuclei (e.g., fission products) as well as for occasional users interested in restricted number of nuclides. The average beta-energy values calculated by this method differ from those calculated by ''exact'' methods by no more than 1 percent for nuclides with atomic numbers in the 20 to 100 range and which emit betas of energies up to approximately 8 MeV. These include all fission products and the actinides. The beta-energy spectra calculated by the present method are also of the same quality

  15. Asymptotic Time Averages and Frequency Distributions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad El-Taha

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Consider an arbitrary nonnegative deterministic process (in a stochastic setting {X(t,  t≥0} is a fixed realization, i.e., sample-path of the underlying stochastic process with state space S=(-∞,∞. Using a sample-path approach, we give necessary and sufficient conditions for the long-run time average of a measurable function of process to be equal to the expectation taken with respect to the same measurable function of its long-run frequency distribution. The results are further extended to allow unrestricted parameter (time space. Examples are provided to show that our condition is not superfluous and that it is weaker than uniform integrability. The case of discrete-time processes is also considered. The relationship to previously known sufficient conditions, usually given in stochastic settings, will also be discussed. Our approach is applied to regenerative processes and an extension of a well-known result is given. For researchers interested in sample-path analysis, our results will give them the choice to work with the time average of a process or its frequency distribution function and go back and forth between the two under a mild condition.

  16. Chaotic Universe, Friedmannian on the average 2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marochnik, L S [AN SSSR, Moscow. Inst. Kosmicheskikh Issledovanij

    1980-11-01

    The cosmological solutions are found for the equations for correlators, describing a statistically chaotic Universe, Friedmannian on the average in which delta-correlated fluctuations with amplitudes h >> 1 are excited. For the equation of state of matter p = n epsilon, the kind of solutions depends on the position of maximum of the spectrum of the metric disturbances. The expansion of the Universe, in which long-wave potential and vortical motions and gravitational waves (modes diverging at t ..-->.. 0) had been excited, tends asymptotically to the Friedmannian one at t ..-->.. identity and depends critically on n: at n < 0.26, the solution for the scalefactor is situated higher than the Friedmannian one, and lower at n > 0.26. The influence of finite at t ..-->.. 0 long-wave fluctuation modes leads to an averaged quasiisotropic solution. The contribution of quantum fluctuations and of short-wave parts of the spectrum of classical fluctuations to the expansion law is considered. Their influence is equivalent to the contribution from an ultrarelativistic gas with corresponding energy density and pressure. The restrictions are obtained for the degree of chaos (the spectrum characteristics) compatible with the observed helium abundance, which could have been retained by a completely chaotic Universe during its expansion up to the nucleosynthesis epoch.

  17. Averaging in the presence of sliding errors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yost, G.P.

    1991-08-01

    In many cases the precision with which an experiment can measure a physical quantity depends on the value of that quantity. Not having access to the true value, experimental groups are forced to assign their errors based on their own measured value. Procedures which attempt to derive an improved estimate of the true value by a suitable average of such measurements usually weight each experiment's measurement according to the reported variance. However, one is in a position to derive improved error estimates for each experiment from the average itself, provided an approximate idea of the functional dependence of the error on the central value is known. Failing to do so can lead to substantial biases. Techniques which avoid these biases without loss of precision are proposed and their performance is analyzed with examples. These techniques are quite general and can bring about an improvement even when the behavior of the errors is not well understood. Perhaps the most important application of the technique is in fitting curves to histograms

  18. Method and apparatus for a combination moving bed thermal treatment reactor and moving bed filter

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Badger, Phillip C.; Dunn, Jr., Kenneth J.

    2015-09-01

    A moving bed gasification/thermal treatment reactor includes a geometry in which moving bed reactor particles serve as both a moving bed filter and a heat carrier to provide thermal energy for thermal treatment reactions, such that the moving bed filter and the heat carrier are one and the same to remove solid particulates or droplets generated by thermal treatment processes or injected into the moving bed filter from other sources.

  19. High average power linear induction accelerator development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bayless, J.R.; Adler, R.J.

    1987-07-01

    There is increasing interest in linear induction accelerators (LIAs) for applications including free electron lasers, high power microwave generators and other types of radiation sources. Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory has developed LIA technology in combination with magnetic pulse compression techniques to achieve very impressive performance levels. In this paper we will briefly discuss the LIA concept and describe our development program. Our goals are to improve the reliability and reduce the cost of LIA systems. An accelerator is presently under construction to demonstrate these improvements at an energy of 1.6 MeV in 2 kA, 65 ns beam pulses at an average beam power of approximately 30 kW. The unique features of this system are a low cost accelerator design and an SCR-switched, magnetically compressed, pulse power system. 4 refs., 7 figs

  20. FEL system with homogeneous average output

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Douglas, David R.; Legg, Robert; Whitney, R. Roy; Neil, George; Powers, Thomas Joseph

    2018-01-16

    A method of varying the output of a free electron laser (FEL) on very short time scales to produce a slightly broader, but smooth, time-averaged wavelength spectrum. The method includes injecting into an accelerator a sequence of bunch trains at phase offsets from crest. Accelerating the particles to full energy to result in distinct and independently controlled, by the choice of phase offset, phase-energy correlations or chirps on each bunch train. The earlier trains will be more strongly chirped, the later trains less chirped. For an energy recovered linac (ERL), the beam may be recirculated using a transport system with linear and nonlinear momentum compactions M.sub.56, which are selected to compress all three bunch trains at the FEL with higher order terms managed.

  1. Quetelet, the average man and medical knowledge.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caponi, Sandra

    2013-01-01

    Using two books by Adolphe Quetelet, I analyze his theory of the 'average man', which associates biological and social normality with the frequency with which certain characteristics appear in a population. The books are Sur l'homme et le développement de ses facultés and Du systeme social et des lois qui le régissent. Both reveal that Quetelet's ideas are permeated by explanatory strategies drawn from physics and astronomy, and also by discursive strategies drawn from theology and religion. The stability of the mean as opposed to the dispersion of individual characteristics and events provided the basis for the use of statistics in social sciences and medicine.

  2. [Quetelet, the average man and medical knowledge].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caponi, Sandra

    2013-01-01

    Using two books by Adolphe Quetelet, I analyze his theory of the 'average man', which associates biological and social normality with the frequency with which certain characteristics appear in a population. The books are Sur l'homme et le développement de ses facultés and Du systeme social et des lois qui le régissent. Both reveal that Quetelet's ideas are permeated by explanatory strategies drawn from physics and astronomy, and also by discursive strategies drawn from theology and religion. The stability of the mean as opposed to the dispersion of individual characteristics and events provided the basis for the use of statistics in social sciences and medicine.

  3. Asymmetric network connectivity using weighted harmonic averages

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morrison, Greg; Mahadevan, L.

    2011-02-01

    We propose a non-metric measure of the "closeness" felt between two nodes in an undirected, weighted graph using a simple weighted harmonic average of connectivity, that is a real-valued Generalized Erdös Number (GEN). While our measure is developed with a collaborative network in mind, the approach can be of use in a variety of artificial and real-world networks. We are able to distinguish between network topologies that standard distance metrics view as identical, and use our measure to study some simple analytically tractable networks. We show how this might be used to look at asymmetry in authorship networks such as those that inspired the integer Erdös numbers in mathematical coauthorships. We also show the utility of our approach to devise a ratings scheme that we apply to the data from the NetFlix prize, and find a significant improvement using our method over a baseline.

  4. Angle-averaged Compton cross sections

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nickel, G.H.

    1983-01-01

    The scattering of a photon by an individual free electron is characterized by six quantities: α = initial photon energy in units of m 0 c 2 ; α/sub s/ = scattered photon energy in units of m 0 c 2 ; β = initial electron velocity in units of c; phi = angle between photon direction and electron direction in the laboratory frame (LF); theta = polar angle change due to Compton scattering, measured in the electron rest frame (ERF); and tau = azimuthal angle change in the ERF. We present an analytic expression for the average of the Compton cross section over phi, theta, and tau. The lowest order approximation to this equation is reasonably accurate for photons and electrons with energies of many keV

  5. Average Gait Differential Image Based Human Recognition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jinyan Chen

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The difference between adjacent frames of human walking contains useful information for human gait identification. Based on the previous idea a silhouettes difference based human gait recognition method named as average gait differential image (AGDI is proposed in this paper. The AGDI is generated by the accumulation of the silhouettes difference between adjacent frames. The advantage of this method lies in that as a feature image it can preserve both the kinetic and static information of walking. Comparing to gait energy image (GEI, AGDI is more fit to representation the variation of silhouettes during walking. Two-dimensional principal component analysis (2DPCA is used to extract features from the AGDI. Experiments on CASIA dataset show that AGDI has better identification and verification performance than GEI. Comparing to PCA, 2DPCA is a more efficient and less memory storage consumption feature extraction method in gait based recognition.

  6. Reynolds averaged simulation of unsteady separated flow

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iaccarino, G.; Ooi, A.; Durbin, P.A.; Behnia, M.

    2003-01-01

    The accuracy of Reynolds averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) turbulence models in predicting complex flows with separation is examined. The unsteady flow around square cylinder and over a wall-mounted cube are simulated and compared with experimental data. For the cube case, none of the previously published numerical predictions obtained by steady-state RANS produced a good match with experimental data. However, evidence exists that coherent vortex shedding occurs in this flow. Its presence demands unsteady RANS computation because the flow is not statistically stationary. The present study demonstrates that unsteady RANS does indeed predict periodic shedding, and leads to much better concurrence with available experimental data than has been achieved with steady computation

  7. Angle-averaged Compton cross sections

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nickel, G.H.

    1983-01-01

    The scattering of a photon by an individual free electron is characterized by six quantities: ..cap alpha.. = initial photon energy in units of m/sub 0/c/sup 2/; ..cap alpha../sub s/ = scattered photon energy in units of m/sub 0/c/sup 2/; ..beta.. = initial electron velocity in units of c; phi = angle between photon direction and electron direction in the laboratory frame (LF); theta = polar angle change due to Compton scattering, measured in the electron rest frame (ERF); and tau = azimuthal angle change in the ERF. We present an analytic expression for the average of the Compton cross section over phi, theta, and tau. The lowest order approximation to this equation is reasonably accurate for photons and electrons with energies of many keV.

  8. The balanced survivor average causal effect.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greene, Tom; Joffe, Marshall; Hu, Bo; Li, Liang; Boucher, Ken

    2013-05-07

    Statistical analysis of longitudinal outcomes is often complicated by the absence of observable values in patients who die prior to their scheduled measurement. In such cases, the longitudinal data are said to be "truncated by death" to emphasize that the longitudinal measurements are not simply missing, but are undefined after death. Recently, the truncation by death problem has been investigated using the framework of principal stratification to define the target estimand as the survivor average causal effect (SACE), which in the context of a two-group randomized clinical trial is the mean difference in the longitudinal outcome between the treatment and control groups for the principal stratum of always-survivors. The SACE is not identified without untestable assumptions. These assumptions have often been formulated in terms of a monotonicity constraint requiring that the treatment does not reduce survival in any patient, in conjunction with assumed values for mean differences in the longitudinal outcome between certain principal strata. In this paper, we introduce an alternative estimand, the balanced-SACE, which is defined as the average causal effect on the longitudinal outcome in a particular subset of the always-survivors that is balanced with respect to the potential survival times under the treatment and control. We propose a simple estimator of the balanced-SACE that compares the longitudinal outcomes between equivalent fractions of the longest surviving patients between the treatment and control groups and does not require a monotonicity assumption. We provide expressions for the large sample bias of the estimator, along with sensitivity analyses and strategies to minimize this bias. We consider statistical inference under a bootstrap resampling procedure.

  9. Optimization of Moving Coil Actuators for Digital Displacement Machines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nørgård, Christian; Bech, Michael Møller; Roemer, Daniel Beck

    2016-01-01

    This paper focuses on deriving an optimal moving coil actuator design, used as force pro-ducing element in hydraulic on/off valves for Digital Displacement machines. Different moving coil actuator geometry topologies (permanent magnet placement and magnetiza-tion direction) are optimized for actu......This paper focuses on deriving an optimal moving coil actuator design, used as force pro-ducing element in hydraulic on/off valves for Digital Displacement machines. Different moving coil actuator geometry topologies (permanent magnet placement and magnetiza-tion direction) are optimized...... for actuating annular seat valves in a digital displacement machine. The optimization objectives are to the minimize the actuator power, the valve flow losses and the height of the actuator. Evaluation of the objective function involves static finite element simulation and simulation of an entire operation...... designs requires approximately 20 W on average and may be realized in 20 mm × Ø 22.5 mm (height × diameter) for a 20 kW pressure chamber. The optimization is carried out using the multi-objective Generalized Differential Evolu-tion optimization algorithm GDE3 which successfully handles constrained multi-objective...

  10. Cosmology with moving bimetric fluids

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    García-García, Carlos; Maroto, Antonio L.; Martín-Moruno, Prado, E-mail: cargar08@ucm.es, E-mail: maroto@ucm.es, E-mail: pradomm@ucm.es [Departamento de Física Teórica I, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, E-28040 Madrid (Spain)

    2016-12-01

    We study cosmological implications of bigravity and massive gravity solutions with non-simultaneously diagonal metrics by considering the generalized Gordon and Kerr-Schild ansatzes. The scenario that we obtain is equivalent to that of General Relativity with additional non-comoving perfect fluids. We show that the most general ghost-free bimetric theory generates three kinds of effective fluids whose equations of state are fixed by a function of the ansatz. Different choices of such function allow to reproduce the behaviour of different dark fluids. In particular, the Gordon ansatz is suitable for the description of various kinds of slowly-moving fluids, whereas the Kerr-Schild one is shown to describe a null dark energy component. The motion of those dark fluids with respect to the CMB is shown to generate, in turn, a relative motion of baryonic matter with respect to radition which contributes to the CMB anisotropies. CMB dipole observations are able to set stringent limits on the dark sector described by the effective bimetric fluid.

  11. Computations of slowly moving shocks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karni, S.; Canic, S.

    1997-01-01

    Computations of slowly moving shocks by shock capturing schemes may generate oscillations are generated already by first-order schemes, but become more pronounced in higher-order schemes which seem to exhibit different behaviors: (i) the first-order upwind (UW) scheme which generates strong oscillations and (ii) the Lax-Friedrichs scheme which appears not to generate any disturbances at all. A key observation is that in the UW case, the numerical viscosity in the shock family vanishes inside the slow shock layer. Simple scaling arguments show the third-order effects on the solution may no longer be neglected. We derive the third-order modified equation for the UW scheme and regard the oscillatory solution as a traveling wave solution of the parabolic modified equation for the perturbation. We then look at the governing equation for the perturbation, which points to a plausible mechanism by which postshock oscillations are generated. It contains a third-order source term that becomes significant inside the shock layer, and a nonlinear coupling term which projects the perturbation on all characteristic fields, including those not associated with the shock family. 5 refs., 8 figs

  12. Pipelines : moving biomass and energy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kumar, A. [Alberta Univ., Edmonton, AB (Canada). Dept. of Mechanical Engineering

    2006-07-01

    Moving biomass and energy through pipelines was presented. Field sourced biomass utilization for fuel was discussed in terms of competing cost factors; economies of scale; and differing fuel plant sizes. The cost versus scale in a bioenergy facility was illustrated in chart format. The transportation cost of biomass was presented as it is a major component of total biomass processing cost and is in the typical range of 25-45 per cent of total processing costs for truck transport of biomass. Issues in large scale biomass utilization, scale effects in transportation, and components of transport cost were identified. Other topics related to transportation issues included approaches to pipeline transport; cost of wood chips in pipeline transport; and distance variable cost of transporting wood chips by pipeline. Practical applications were also offered. In addition, the presentation provided and illustrated a model for an ethanol plant supplied by truck transport as well as a sample configuration for 19 truck based ethanol plants versus one large facility supplied by truck plus 18 pipelines. Last, pipeline transport of bio-oil and pipeline transport of syngas was discussed. It was concluded that pipeline transport can help in reducing congestion issues in large scale biomass utilization and that it can offer a means to achieve large plant size. Some current research at the University of Alberta on pipeline transport of raw biomass, bio-oil and hydrogen production from biomass for oil sands and pipeline transport was also presented. tabs., figs.

  13. Leadership in moving human groups.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Margarete Boos

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available How is movement of individuals coordinated as a group? This is a fundamental question of social behaviour, encompassing phenomena such as bird flocking, fish schooling, and the innumerable activities in human groups that require people to synchronise their actions. We have developed an experimental paradigm, the HoneyComb computer-based multi-client game, to empirically investigate human movement coordination and leadership. Using economic games as a model, we set monetary incentives to motivate players on a virtual playfield to reach goals via players' movements. We asked whether (I humans coordinate their movements when information is limited to an individual group member's observation of adjacent group member motion, (II whether an informed group minority can lead an uninformed group majority to the minority's goal, and if so, (III how this minority exerts its influence. We showed that in a human group--on the basis of movement alone--a minority can successfully lead a majority. Minorities lead successfully when (a their members choose similar initial steps towards their goal field and (b they are among the first in the whole group to make a move. Using our approach, we empirically demonstrate that the rules of swarming behaviour apply to humans. Even complex human behaviour, such as leadership and directed group movement, follow simple rules that are based on visual perception of local movement.

  14. The Telecom Lab is moving

    CERN Multimedia

    IT Department

    2009-01-01

    As of 2nd March 2009, the Telecom Lab will move to Building 58 R-017. The Telecom Lab is the central point for all support questions regarding CERN mobile phone services (provision of SIM cards, requests for modifications of subscriptions, diagnostics for mobile phone problems, etc.). The opening hours as well as the contact details for the Telecom Lab remain unchanged: New location: Building 58 R-017 Opening hours: Every week day, from 11 a.m. to 12 a.m. Phone number: 72480 Email address: labo.telecom@cern.ch This change has no impact on support requests for mobile services. Users can still submit their requests concerning mobile phone subscriptions using the usual EDH form (https://edh.cern.ch/Document/GSM). The automatic message sent to inform users of their SIM card availability will be updated to indicate the new Telecom Lab location. You can find all information related to CERN mobile phone services at the following link: http://cern.ch/gsm CS Section - IT/CS group

  15. Sedimentological regimes for turbidity currents: Depth-averaged theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halsey, Thomas C.; Kumar, Amit; Perillo, Mauricio M.

    2017-07-01

    Turbidity currents are one of the most significant means by which sediment is moved from the continents into the deep ocean; their properties are interesting both as elements of the global sediment cycle and due to their role in contributing to the formation of deep water oil and gas reservoirs. One of the simplest models of the dynamics of turbidity current flow was introduced three decades ago, and is based on depth-averaging of the fluid mechanical equations governing the turbulent gravity-driven flow of relatively dilute turbidity currents. We examine the sedimentological regimes of a simplified version of this model, focusing on the role of the Richardson number Ri [dimensionless inertia] and Rouse number Ro [dimensionless sedimentation velocity] in determining whether a current is net depositional or net erosional. We find that for large Rouse numbers, the currents are strongly net depositional due to the disappearance of local equilibria between erosion and deposition. At lower Rouse numbers, the Richardson number also plays a role in determining the degree of erosion versus deposition. The currents become more erosive at lower values of the product Ro × Ri, due to the effect of clear water entrainment. At higher values of this product, the turbulence becomes insufficient to maintain the sediment in suspension, as first pointed out by Knapp and Bagnold. We speculate on the potential for two-layer solutions in this insufficiently turbulent regime, which would comprise substantial bedload flow with an overlying turbidity current.

  16. Internal migration: why do Filipinos move?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jolipa, N

    1980-01-01

    The rapid movement of Filipinos from 1 part of the Philippines to another is not a new phenomenon, but mobility has been increasing. A study conducted by Peter C. Smith revealed that interprovincial lifetime mobility of the national population increased from 15.8% in 1960 to 17.6% in 1970, while interregional mobility increased from 12.7% to 13.4%. People still disagree as to whether the size and rate of growth of the population are excessive, but there seems to be total consensus as regards its spatial imbalance. Because internal migration appears to be an important factor in national development, a need exists to examine different aspects of internal migration, such as the directions taken by migration flows, the migrants' reasons for moving, the migrants' characteristics, the migrants' success or lack of success at their places of destination, the social problems accompanying internal migration, effforts to deal with the problems caused by internal migration, and the implications of migration trends for policy and for the country's development programs. The most dominant migration trend in the Philippines in recent years has been toward the urban, or more accurately the suburban, areas adjacent to Metropolitan Manila. The city of Manila itself suffered a net outflow, further pointing to the trend toward suburbanization. Migration flows are primarily caused by economic reasons. About one half the sample of a Filipinas Foundation Study moved to provinces other than the province of birth in the pursuit of employment and other economic opportunities. A study of the country's migrant population age 15 and older showed that 53% of migrants were female. For male migrants, age ranges from 20-40; it ranges from 15-35 for females. Where cash income is concerned, migrants in Pernia's study of rural urban migration were better off than nonmigrants. Migrants were, on the average, as well off as native urbanites or metropolitanites. Among the more significant points raised by

  17. Can math beat gamers in Quantum Moves?

    OpenAIRE

    Sels, Dries

    2017-01-01

    Abstract: In a recent work on quantum state preparation, Sørensen and co-workers [Nature (London) 532, 210 (2016)] explore the possibility of using video games to help design quantum control protocols. The authors present a game called Quantum Moves (https://www.scienceathome.org/games/quantum-moves/) in which gamers have to move an atom from A to B by means of optical tweezers. They report that, players succeed where purely numerical optimization fails. Moreover, by harnessing the player str...

  18. Trading Fees and Slow-Moving Capital

    OpenAIRE

    Buss, Adrian; Dumas, Bernard J

    2015-01-01

    In some situations, investment capital seems to move slowly towards profitable trades. We develop a model of a financial market in which capital moves slowly simply because there is a proportional cost to moving capital. We incorporate trading fees in an infinite-horizon dynamic general-equilibrium model in which investors optimally and endogenously decide when and how much to trade. We determine the steady-state equilibrium no-trade zone, study the dynamics of equilibrium trades and prices a...

  19. Industrial Applications of High Average Power FELS

    CERN Document Server

    Shinn, Michelle D

    2005-01-01

    The use of lasers for material processing continues to expand, and the annual sales of such lasers exceeds $1 B (US). Large scale (many m2) processing of materials require the economical production of laser powers of the tens of kilowatts, and therefore are not yet commercial processes, although they have been demonstrated. The development of FELs based on superconducting RF (SRF) linac technology provides a scaleable path to laser outputs above 50 kW in the IR, rendering these applications economically viable, since the cost/photon drops as the output power increases. This approach also enables high average power ~ 1 kW output in the UV spectrum. Such FELs will provide quasi-cw (PRFs in the tens of MHz), of ultrafast (pulsewidth ~ 1 ps) output with very high beam quality. This talk will provide an overview of applications tests by our facility's users such as pulsed laser deposition, laser ablation, and laser surface modification, as well as present plans that will be tested with our upgraded FELs. These upg...

  20. Calculating Free Energies Using Average Force

    Science.gov (United States)

    Darve, Eric; Pohorille, Andrew; DeVincenzi, Donald L. (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    A new, general formula that connects the derivatives of the free energy along the selected, generalized coordinates of the system with the instantaneous force acting on these coordinates is derived. The instantaneous force is defined as the force acting on the coordinate of interest so that when it is subtracted from the equations of motion the acceleration along this coordinate is zero. The formula applies to simulations in which the selected coordinates are either unconstrained or constrained to fixed values. It is shown that in the latter case the formula reduces to the expression previously derived by den Otter and Briels. If simulations are carried out without constraining the coordinates of interest, the formula leads to a new method for calculating the free energy changes along these coordinates. This method is tested in two examples - rotation around the C-C bond of 1,2-dichloroethane immersed in water and transfer of fluoromethane across the water-hexane interface. The calculated free energies are compared with those obtained by two commonly used methods. One of them relies on determining the probability density function of finding the system at different values of the selected coordinate and the other requires calculating the average force at discrete locations along this coordinate in a series of constrained simulations. The free energies calculated by these three methods are in excellent agreement. The relative advantages of each method are discussed.

  1. Geographic Gossip: Efficient Averaging for Sensor Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dimakis, Alexandros D. G.; Sarwate, Anand D.; Wainwright, Martin J.

    Gossip algorithms for distributed computation are attractive due to their simplicity, distributed nature, and robustness in noisy and uncertain environments. However, using standard gossip algorithms can lead to a significant waste in energy by repeatedly recirculating redundant information. For realistic sensor network model topologies like grids and random geometric graphs, the inefficiency of gossip schemes is related to the slow mixing times of random walks on the communication graph. We propose and analyze an alternative gossiping scheme that exploits geographic information. By utilizing geographic routing combined with a simple resampling method, we demonstrate substantial gains over previously proposed gossip protocols. For regular graphs such as the ring or grid, our algorithm improves standard gossip by factors of $n$ and $\\sqrt{n}$ respectively. For the more challenging case of random geometric graphs, our algorithm computes the true average to accuracy $\\epsilon$ using $O(\\frac{n^{1.5}}{\\sqrt{\\log n}} \\log \\epsilon^{-1})$ radio transmissions, which yields a $\\sqrt{\\frac{n}{\\log n}}$ factor improvement over standard gossip algorithms. We illustrate these theoretical results with experimental comparisons between our algorithm and standard methods as applied to various classes of random fields.

  2. High-average-power solid state lasers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Summers, M.A.

    1989-01-01

    In 1987, a broad-based, aggressive R ampersand D program aimed at developing the technologies necessary to make possible the use of solid state lasers that are capable of delivering medium- to high-average power in new and demanding applications. Efforts were focused along the following major lines: development of laser and nonlinear optical materials, and of coatings for parasitic suppression and evanescent wave control; development of computational design tools; verification of computational models on thoroughly instrumented test beds; and applications of selected aspects of this technology to specific missions. In the laser materials areas, efforts were directed towards producing strong, low-loss laser glasses and large, high quality garnet crystals. The crystal program consisted of computational and experimental efforts aimed at understanding the physics, thermodynamics, and chemistry of large garnet crystal growth. The laser experimental efforts were directed at understanding thermally induced wave front aberrations in zig-zag slabs, understanding fluid mechanics, heat transfer, and optical interactions in gas-cooled slabs, and conducting critical test-bed experiments with various electro-optic switch geometries. 113 refs., 99 figs., 18 tabs

  3. The concept of average LET values determination

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Makarewicz, M.

    1981-01-01

    The concept of average LET (linear energy transfer) values determination, i.e. ordinary moments of LET in absorbed dose distribution vs. LET of ionizing radiation of any kind and any spectrum (even the unknown ones) has been presented. The method is based on measurement of ionization current with several values of voltage supplying an ionization chamber operating in conditions of columnar recombination of ions or ion recombination in clusters while the chamber is placed in the radiation field at the point of interest. By fitting a suitable algebraic expression to the measured current values one can obtain coefficients of the expression which can be interpreted as values of LET moments. One of the advantages of the method is its experimental and computational simplicity. It has been shown that for numerical estimation of certain effects dependent on LET of radiation it is not necessary to know the dose distribution but only a number of parameters of the distribution, i.e. the LET moments. (author)

  4. On spectral averages in nuclear spectroscopy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Verbaarschot, J.J.M.

    1982-01-01

    In nuclear spectroscopy one tries to obtain a description of systems of bound nucleons. By means of theoretical models one attemps to reproduce the eigenenergies and the corresponding wave functions which then enable the computation of, for example, the electromagnetic moments and the transition amplitudes. Statistical spectroscopy can be used for studying nuclear systems in large model spaces. In this thesis, methods are developed and applied which enable the determination of quantities in a finite part of the Hilbert space, which is defined by specific quantum values. In the case of averages in a space defined by a partition of the nucleons over the single-particle orbits, the propagation coefficients reduce to Legendre interpolation polynomials. In chapter 1 these polynomials are derived with the help of a generating function and a generalization of Wick's theorem. One can then deduce the centroid and the variance of the eigenvalue distribution in a straightforward way. The results are used to calculate the systematic energy difference between states of even and odd parity for nuclei in the mass region A=10-40. In chapter 2 an efficient method for transforming fixed angular momentum projection traces into fixed angular momentum for the configuration space traces is developed. In chapter 3 it is shown that the secular behaviour can be represented by a Gaussian function of the energies. (Auth.)

  5. Lattice Boltzmann methods for moving boundary flows

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Inamuro, Takaji

    2012-01-01

    The lattice Boltzmann methods (LBMs) for moving boundary flows are presented. The LBM for two-phase fluid flows with the same density and the LBM combined with the immersed boundary method are described. In addition, the LBM on a moving multi-block grid is explained. Three numerical examples (a droplet moving in a constricted tube, the lift generation of a flapping wing and the sedimentation of an elliptical cylinder) are shown in order to demonstrate the applicability of the LBMs to moving boundary problems. (invited review)

  6. Lattice Boltzmann methods for moving boundary flows

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Inamuro, Takaji, E-mail: inamuro@kuaero.kyoto-u.ac.jp [Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics, and Advanced Research Institute of Fluid Science and Engineering, Graduate School of Engineering, Kyoto University, Kyoto 606-8501 (Japan)

    2012-04-01

    The lattice Boltzmann methods (LBMs) for moving boundary flows are presented. The LBM for two-phase fluid flows with the same density and the LBM combined with the immersed boundary method are described. In addition, the LBM on a moving multi-block grid is explained. Three numerical examples (a droplet moving in a constricted tube, the lift generation of a flapping wing and the sedimentation of an elliptical cylinder) are shown in order to demonstrate the applicability of the LBMs to moving boundary problems. (invited review)

  7. THE VELOCITY DISTRIBUTION OF NEARBY STARS FROM HIPPARCOS DATA. II. THE NATURE OF THE LOW-VELOCITY MOVING GROUPS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bovy, Jo; Hogg, David W.

    2010-01-01

    The velocity distribution of nearby stars (∼<100 pc) contains many overdensities or 'moving groups', clumps of comoving stars, that are inconsistent with the standard assumption of an axisymmetric, time-independent, and steady-state Galaxy. We study the age and metallicity properties of the low-velocity moving groups based on the reconstruction of the local velocity distribution in Paper I of this series. We perform stringent, conservative hypothesis testing to establish for each of these moving groups whether it could conceivably consist of a coeval population of stars. We conclude that they do not: the moving groups are neither trivially associated with their eponymous open clusters nor with any other inhomogeneous star formation event. Concerning a possible dynamical origin of the moving groups, we test whether any of the moving groups has a higher or lower metallicity than the background population of thin disk stars, as would generically be the case if the moving groups are associated with resonances of the bar or spiral structure. We find clear evidence that the Hyades moving group has higher than average metallicity and weak evidence that the Sirius moving group has lower than average metallicity, which could indicate that these two groups are related to the inner Lindblad resonance of the spiral structure. Further, we find weak evidence that the Hercules moving group has higher than average metallicity, as would be the case if it is associated with the bar's outer Lindblad resonance. The Pleiades moving group shows no clear metallicity anomaly, arguing against a common dynamical origin for the Hyades and Pleiades groups. Overall, however, the moving groups are barely distinguishable from the background population of stars, raising the likelihood that the moving groups are associated with transient perturbations.

  8. Developing a comprehensive measure of mobility: mobility over varied environments scale (MOVES).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirsch, Jana A; Winters, Meghan; Sims-Gould, Joanie; Clarke, Philippa J; Ste-Marie, Nathalie; Ashe, Maureen; McKay, Heather A

    2017-05-25

    While recent work emphasizes the multi-dimensionality of mobility, no current measure incorporates multiple domains of mobility. Using existing conceptual frameworks we identified four domains of mobility (physical, cognitive, social, transportation) to create a "Mobility Over Varied Environments Scale" (MOVES). We then assessed expected patterns of MOVES in the Canadian population. An expert panel identified survey items within each MOVES domain from the Canadian Community Health Survey- Healthy Aging Cycle (2008-2009) for 28,555 (weighted population n = 12,805,067) adults (≥45 years). We refined MOVES using principal components analysis and Cronbach's alpha and weighted items so each domain was 10 points. Expected mobility trends, as assessed by average MOVES, were examined by sociodemographic and health factors, and by province, using Analysis of Variance (ANOVA). MOVES ranged from 0 to 40, where 0 represents individuals who are immobile and 40 those who are fully mobile. Mean MOVES was 29.58 (95% confidence interval (CI) 29.49, 29.67) (10th percentile: 24.17 (95% CI 23.96, 24.38), 90th percentile: 34.70 (CI 34.55, 34.85)). MOVES scores were lower for older, female, and non-white Canadians with worse health and lower socioeconomic status. MOVES was also lower for those who live in less urban areas. MOVES is a holistic measure of mobility for characterizing older adult mobility across populations. Future work should examine individual or neighborhood predictors of MOVES and its relationship to broader health outcomes. MOVES holds utility for research, surveillance, evaluation, and interventions around the broad factors influencing mobility in older adults.

  9. Application of Geostatistical Methods and Wavelets to the Analysis of Hyperspectral Imagery and the Testing of a Moving Variogram

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    2000-01-01

    This is a first report of the project. It incorporates the report on an analysis completed in the previous project on moving averages, variances and variograms for NIR from a SPOT image of part of Fort A. P. Hill...

  10. Multi-pulse orbits and chaotic dynamics in motion of parametrically excited viscoelastic moving belt

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Wei; Yao Minghui

    2006-01-01

    In this paper, the Shilnikov type multi-pulse orbits and chaotic dynamics of parametrically excited viscoelastic moving belt are studied in detail. Using Kelvin-type viscoelastic constitutive law, the equations of motion for viscoelastic moving belt with the external damping and parametric excitation are given. The four-dimensional averaged equation under the case of primary parametric resonance is obtained by directly using the method of multiple scales and Galerkin's approach to the partial differential governing equation of viscoelastic moving belt. From the averaged equations obtained here, the theory of normal form is used to give the explicit expressions of normal form with a double zero and a pair of pure imaginary eigenvalues. Based on normal form, the energy-phrase method is employed to analyze the global bifurcations and chaotic dynamics in parametrically excited viscoelastic moving belt. The global bifurcation analysis indicates that there exist the heteroclinic bifurcations and the Silnikov type multi-pulse homoclinic orbits in the averaged equation. The results obtained above mean the existence of the chaos for the Smale horseshoe sense in parametrically excited viscoelastic moving belt. The chaotic motions of viscoelastic moving belts are also found by using numerical simulation. A new phenomenon on the multi-pulse jumping orbits is observed from three-dimensional phase space

  11. Move-by-move dynamics of the advantage in chess matches reveals population-level learning of the game.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haroldo V Ribeiro

    Full Text Available The complexity of chess matches has attracted broad interest since its invention. This complexity and the availability of large number of recorded matches make chess an ideal model systems for the study of population-level learning of a complex system. We systematically investigate the move-by-move dynamics of the white player's advantage from over seventy thousand high level chess matches spanning over 150 years. We find that the average advantage of the white player is positive and that it has been increasing over time. Currently, the average advantage of the white player is 0.17 pawns but it is exponentially approaching a value of 0.23 pawns with a characteristic time scale of 67 years. We also study the diffusion of the move dependence of the white player's advantage and find that it is non-Gaussian, has long-ranged anti-correlations and that after an initial period with no diffusion it becomes super-diffusive. We find that the duration of the non-diffusive period, corresponding to the opening stage of a match, is increasing in length and exponentially approaching a value of 15.6 moves with a characteristic time scale of 130 years. We interpret these two trends as a resulting from learning of the features of the game. Additionally, we find that the exponent [Formula: see text] characterizing the super-diffusive regime is increasing toward a value of 1.9, close to the ballistic regime. We suggest that this trend is due to the increased broadening of the range of abilities of chess players participating in major tournaments.

  12. Move-by-move dynamics of the advantage in chess matches reveals population-level learning of the game.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ribeiro, Haroldo V; Mendes, Renio S; Lenzi, Ervin K; del Castillo-Mussot, Marcelo; Amaral, Luís A N

    2013-01-01

    The complexity of chess matches has attracted broad interest since its invention. This complexity and the availability of large number of recorded matches make chess an ideal model systems for the study of population-level learning of a complex system. We systematically investigate the move-by-move dynamics of the white player's advantage from over seventy thousand high level chess matches spanning over 150 years. We find that the average advantage of the white player is positive and that it has been increasing over time. Currently, the average advantage of the white player is 0.17 pawns but it is exponentially approaching a value of 0.23 pawns with a characteristic time scale of 67 years. We also study the diffusion of the move dependence of the white player's advantage and find that it is non-Gaussian, has long-ranged anti-correlations and that after an initial period with no diffusion it becomes super-diffusive. We find that the duration of the non-diffusive period, corresponding to the opening stage of a match, is increasing in length and exponentially approaching a value of 15.6 moves with a characteristic time scale of 130 years. We interpret these two trends as a resulting from learning of the features of the game. Additionally, we find that the exponent [Formula: see text] characterizing the super-diffusive regime is increasing toward a value of 1.9, close to the ballistic regime. We suggest that this trend is due to the increased broadening of the range of abilities of chess players participating in major tournaments.

  13. Moving core beam energy absorber and converter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Degtiarenko, Pavel V.

    2012-12-18

    A method and apparatus for the prevention of overheating of laser or particle beam impact zones through the use of a moving-in-the-coolant-flow arrangement for the energy absorbing core of the device. Moving of the core spreads the energy deposition in it in 1, 2, or 3 dimensions, thus increasing the effective cooling area of the device.

  14. Theses "Discussion" Sections: A Structural Move Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nodoushan, Mohammad Ali Salmani; Khakbaz, Nafiseh

    2011-01-01

    The current study aimed at finding the probable differences between the move structure of Iranian MA graduates' thesis discussion subgenres and those of their non-Iranian counterparts, on the one hand, and those of journal paper authors, on the other. It also aimed at identifying the moves that are considered obligatory, conventional, or optional…

  15. How to Move in a Jostling Crowd

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    For people living in big cities it is an ordeal to walk in a bus stand or a railway station. They get stuck helplessly in a crowd. They are simply pushed around and all their efforts to move forward appear futile. Only the most energetic can wade through the constantly moving sea of people. How about the weaker ones?

  16. Online Risk Prediction for Indoor Moving Objects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ahmed, Tanvir; Pedersen, Torben Bach; Calders, Toon

    2016-01-01

    Technologies such as RFID and Bluetooth have received considerable attention for tracking indoor moving objects. In a time-critical indoor tracking scenario such as airport baggage handling, a bag has to move through a sequence of locations until it is loaded into the aircraft. Inefficiency or in...... reduce the operation cost....

  17. Student-Centered Coaching: The Moves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sweeney, Diane; Harris, Leanna S.

    2017-01-01

    Student-centered coaching is a highly-effective, evidence-based coaching model that shifts the focus from "fixing" teachers to collaborating with them to design instruction that targets student outcomes. But what does this look like in practice? "Student-Centered Coaching: The Moves" shows you the day-to-day coaching moves that…

  18. Moving vertices to make drawings plane

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Goaoc, X.; Kratochvil, J.; Okamoto, Y.; Shin, C.S.; Wolff, A.; Hong, S.K.; Nishizeki, T.; Quan, W.

    2008-01-01

    In John Tantalo’s on-line game Planarity the player is given a non-plane straight-line drawing of a planar graph. The aim is to make the drawing plane as quickly as possible by moving vertices. In this paper we investigate the related problem MinMovedVertices which asks for the minimum number of

  19. Moving Target Photometry Using WISE and NEOWISE

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wright, Edward L.

    2015-01-01

    WISE band 1 observations have a significant noise contribution from confusion. The image subtraction done on W0855-0714 by Wright et al. (2014) shows that this noise source can be eliminated for sources that move by much more than the beamsize. This paper describes an analysis that includes a pattern of celestially fixed flux plus a source moving with a known trajectory. This technique allows the confusion noise to be modeled with nuisance parameters and removed even for sources that have not moved by many beamwidths. However, the detector noise is magnified if the motion is too small. Examples of the method applied to fast moving Y dwarfs and slow moving planets will be shown.

  20. Average spectral efficiency analysis of FSO links over turbulence channel with adaptive transmissions and aperture averaging

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aarthi, G.; Ramachandra Reddy, G.

    2018-03-01

    In our paper, the impact of adaptive transmission schemes: (i) optimal rate adaptation (ORA) and (ii) channel inversion with fixed rate (CIFR) on the average spectral efficiency (ASE) are explored for free-space optical (FSO) communications with On-Off Keying (OOK), Polarization shift keying (POLSK), and Coherent optical wireless communication (Coherent OWC) systems under different turbulence regimes. Further to enhance the ASE we have incorporated aperture averaging effects along with the above adaptive schemes. The results indicate that ORA adaptation scheme has the advantage of improving the ASE performance compared with CIFR under moderate and strong turbulence regime. The coherent OWC system with ORA excels the other modulation schemes and could achieve ASE performance of 49.8 bits/s/Hz at the average transmitted optical power of 6 dBm under strong turbulence. By adding aperture averaging effect we could achieve an ASE of 50.5 bits/s/Hz under the same conditions. This makes ORA with Coherent OWC modulation as a favorable candidate for improving the ASE of the FSO communication system.

  1. Moving Matters: The Causal Effect of Moving Schools on Student Performance. Working Paper #01-15

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwartz, Amy Ellen; Stiefel, Leanna; Cordes, Sarah A.

    2015-01-01

    The majority of existing research on mobility indicates that students do worse in the year of a school move. This research, however, has been unsuccessful in isolating the causal effects of mobility and often fails to distinguish the heterogeneous impacts of moves, conflating structural moves (mandated by a school's terminal grade) and…

  2. Comparative study of four time series methods in forecasting typhoid fever incidence in China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xingyu Zhang

    Full Text Available Accurate incidence forecasting of infectious disease is critical for early prevention and for better government strategic planning. In this paper, we present a comprehensive study of different forecasting methods based on the monthly incidence of typhoid fever. The seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA model and three different models inspired by neural networks, namely, back propagation neural networks (BPNN, radial basis function neural networks (RBFNN, and Elman recurrent neural networks (ERNN were compared. The differences as well as the advantages and disadvantages, among the SARIMA model and the neural networks were summarized and discussed. The data obtained for 2005 to 2009 and for 2010 from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention were used as modeling and forecasting samples, respectively. The performances were evaluated based on three metrics: mean absolute error (MAE, mean absolute percentage error (MAPE, and mean square error (MSE. The results showed that RBFNN obtained the smallest MAE, MAPE and MSE in both the modeling and forecasting processes. The performances of the four models ranked in descending order were: RBFNN, ERNN, BPNN and the SARIMA model.

  3. Time series modelling to forecast prehospital EMS demand for diabetic emergencies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villani, Melanie; Earnest, Arul; Nanayakkara, Natalie; Smith, Karen; de Courten, Barbora; Zoungas, Sophia

    2017-05-05

    Acute diabetic emergencies are often managed by prehospital Emergency Medical Services (EMS). The projected growth in prevalence of diabetes is likely to result in rising demand for prehospital EMS that are already under pressure. The aims of this study were to model the temporal trends and provide forecasts of prehospital attendances for diabetic emergencies. A time series analysis on monthly cases of hypoglycemia and hyperglycemia was conducted using data from the Ambulance Victoria (AV) electronic database between 2009 and 2015. Using the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) modelling process, different models were evaluated. The most parsimonious model with the highest accuracy was selected. Forty-one thousand four hundred fifty-four prehospital diabetic emergencies were attended over a seven-year period with an increase in the annual median monthly caseload between 2009 (484.5) and 2015 (549.5). Hypoglycemia (70%) and people with type 1 diabetes (48%) accounted for most attendances. The SARIMA (0,1,0,12) model provided the best fit, with a MAPE of 4.2% and predicts a monthly caseload of approximately 740 by the end of 2017. Prehospital EMS demand for diabetic emergencies is increasing. SARIMA time series models are a valuable tool to allow forecasting of future caseload with high accuracy and predict increasing cases of prehospital diabetic emergencies into the future. The model generated by this study may be used by service providers to allow appropriate planning and resource allocation of EMS for diabetic emergencies.

  4. Comparative study of four time series methods in forecasting typhoid fever incidence in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xingyu; Liu, Yuanyuan; Yang, Min; Zhang, Tao; Young, Alistair A; Li, Xiaosong

    2013-01-01

    Accurate incidence forecasting of infectious disease is critical for early prevention and for better government strategic planning. In this paper, we present a comprehensive study of different forecasting methods based on the monthly incidence of typhoid fever. The seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model and three different models inspired by neural networks, namely, back propagation neural networks (BPNN), radial basis function neural networks (RBFNN), and Elman recurrent neural networks (ERNN) were compared. The differences as well as the advantages and disadvantages, among the SARIMA model and the neural networks were summarized and discussed. The data obtained for 2005 to 2009 and for 2010 from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention were used as modeling and forecasting samples, respectively. The performances were evaluated based on three metrics: mean absolute error (MAE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and mean square error (MSE). The results showed that RBFNN obtained the smallest MAE, MAPE and MSE in both the modeling and forecasting processes. The performances of the four models ranked in descending order were: RBFNN, ERNN, BPNN and the SARIMA model.

  5. Forecasting incidence of dengue in Rajasthan, using time series analyses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhatnagar, Sunil; Lal, Vivek; Gupta, Shiv D; Gupta, Om P

    2012-01-01

    To develop a prediction model for dengue fever/dengue haemorrhagic fever (DF/DHF) using time series data over the past decade in Rajasthan and to forecast monthly DF/DHF incidence for 2011. Seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model was used for statistical modeling. During January 2001 to December 2010, the reported DF/DHF cases showed a cyclical pattern with seasonal variation. SARIMA (0,0,1) (0,1,1) 12 model had the lowest normalized Bayesian information criteria (BIC) of 9.426 and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 263.361 and appeared to be the best model. The proportion of variance explained by the model was 54.3%. Adequacy of the model was established through Ljung-Box test (Q statistic 4.910 and P-value 0.996), which showed no significant correlation between residuals at different lag times. The forecast for the year 2011 showed a seasonal peak in the month of October with an estimated 546 cases. Application of SARIMA model may be useful for forecast of cases and impending outbreaks of DF/DHF and other infectious diseases, which exhibit seasonal pattern.

  6. FPGA based computation of average neutron flux and e-folding period for start-up range of reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ram, Rajit; Borkar, S.P.; Dixit, M.Y.; Das, Debashis

    2013-01-01

    Pulse processing instrumentation channels used for reactor applications, play a vital role to ensure nuclear safety in startup range of reactor operation and also during fuel loading and first approach to criticality. These channels are intended for continuous run time computation of equivalent reactor core neutron flux and e-folding period. This paper focuses only the computational part of these instrumentation channels which is implemented in single FPGA using 32-bit floating point arithmetic engine. The computations of average count rate, log of average count rate, log rate and reactor period are done in VHDL using digital circuit realization approach. The computation of average count rate is done using fully adaptive window size moving average method, while Taylor series expansion for logarithms is implemented in FPGA to compute log of count rate, log rate and reactor e-folding period. This paper describes the block diagrams of digital logic realization in FPGA and advantage of fully adaptive window size moving average technique over conventional fixed size moving average technique for pulse processing of reactor instrumentations. (author)

  7. To quantum averages through asymptotic expansion of classical averages on infinite-dimensional space

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khrennikov, Andrei

    2007-01-01

    We study asymptotic expansions of Gaussian integrals of analytic functionals on infinite-dimensional spaces (Hilbert and nuclear Frechet). We obtain an asymptotic equality coupling the Gaussian integral and the trace of the composition of scaling of the covariation operator of a Gaussian measure and the second (Frechet) derivative of a functional. In this way we couple classical average (given by an infinite-dimensional Gaussian integral) and quantum average (given by the von Neumann trace formula). We can interpret this mathematical construction as a procedure of 'dequantization' of quantum mechanics. We represent quantum mechanics as an asymptotic projection of classical statistical mechanics with infinite-dimensional phase space. This space can be represented as the space of classical fields, so quantum mechanics is represented as a projection of 'prequantum classical statistical field theory'

  8. Determining average path length and average trapping time on generalized dual dendrimer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Ling; Guan, Jihong

    2015-03-01

    Dendrimer has wide number of important applications in various fields. In some cases during transport or diffusion process, it transforms into its dual structure named Husimi cactus. In this paper, we study the structure properties and trapping problem on a family of generalized dual dendrimer with arbitrary coordination numbers. We first calculate exactly the average path length (APL) of the networks. The APL increases logarithmically with the network size, indicating that the networks exhibit a small-world effect. Then we determine the average trapping time (ATT) of the trapping process in two cases, i.e., the trap placed on a central node and the trap is uniformly distributed in all the nodes of the network. In both case, we obtain explicit solutions of ATT and show how they vary with the networks size. Besides, we also discuss the influence of the coordination number on trapping efficiency.

  9. Rearrangement moves on rooted phylogenetic networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gambette, Philippe; van Iersel, Leo; Jones, Mark; Lafond, Manuel; Pardi, Fabio; Scornavacca, Celine

    2017-08-01

    Phylogenetic tree reconstruction is usually done by local search heuristics that explore the space of the possible tree topologies via simple rearrangements of their structure. Tree rearrangement heuristics have been used in combination with practically all optimization criteria in use, from maximum likelihood and parsimony to distance-based principles, and in a Bayesian context. Their basic components are rearrangement moves that specify all possible ways of generating alternative phylogenies from a given one, and whose fundamental property is to be able to transform, by repeated application, any phylogeny into any other phylogeny. Despite their long tradition in tree-based phylogenetics, very little research has gone into studying similar rearrangement operations for phylogenetic network-that is, phylogenies explicitly representing scenarios that include reticulate events such as hybridization, horizontal gene transfer, population admixture, and recombination. To fill this gap, we propose "horizontal" moves that ensure that every network of a certain complexity can be reached from any other network of the same complexity, and "vertical" moves that ensure reachability between networks of different complexities. When applied to phylogenetic trees, our horizontal moves-named rNNI and rSPR-reduce to the best-known moves on rooted phylogenetic trees, nearest-neighbor interchange and rooted subtree pruning and regrafting. Besides a number of reachability results-separating the contributions of horizontal and vertical moves-we prove that rNNI moves are local versions of rSPR moves, and provide bounds on the sizes of the rNNI neighborhoods. The paper focuses on the most biologically meaningful versions of phylogenetic networks, where edges are oriented and reticulation events clearly identified. Moreover, our rearrangement moves are robust to the fact that networks with higher complexity usually allow a better fit with the data. Our goal is to provide a solid basis for

  10. Rearrangement moves on rooted phylogenetic networks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Philippe Gambette

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Phylogenetic tree reconstruction is usually done by local search heuristics that explore the space of the possible tree topologies via simple rearrangements of their structure. Tree rearrangement heuristics have been used in combination with practically all optimization criteria in use, from maximum likelihood and parsimony to distance-based principles, and in a Bayesian context. Their basic components are rearrangement moves that specify all possible ways of generating alternative phylogenies from a given one, and whose fundamental property is to be able to transform, by repeated application, any phylogeny into any other phylogeny. Despite their long tradition in tree-based phylogenetics, very little research has gone into studying similar rearrangement operations for phylogenetic network-that is, phylogenies explicitly representing scenarios that include reticulate events such as hybridization, horizontal gene transfer, population admixture, and recombination. To fill this gap, we propose "horizontal" moves that ensure that every network of a certain complexity can be reached from any other network of the same complexity, and "vertical" moves that ensure reachability between networks of different complexities. When applied to phylogenetic trees, our horizontal moves-named rNNI and rSPR-reduce to the best-known moves on rooted phylogenetic trees, nearest-neighbor interchange and rooted subtree pruning and regrafting. Besides a number of reachability results-separating the contributions of horizontal and vertical moves-we prove that rNNI moves are local versions of rSPR moves, and provide bounds on the sizes of the rNNI neighborhoods. The paper focuses on the most biologically meaningful versions of phylogenetic networks, where edges are oriented and reticulation events clearly identified. Moreover, our rearrangement moves are robust to the fact that networks with higher complexity usually allow a better fit with the data. Our goal is to provide

  11. Timescale Halo: Average-Speed Targets Elicit More Positive and Less Negative Attributions than Slow or Fast Targets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hernandez, Ivan; Preston, Jesse Lee; Hepler, Justin

    2014-01-01

    Research on the timescale bias has found that observers perceive more capacity for mind in targets moving at an average speed, relative to slow or fast moving targets. The present research revisited the timescale bias as a type of halo effect, where normal-speed people elicit positive evaluations and abnormal-speed (slow and fast) people elicit negative evaluations. In two studies, participants viewed videos of people walking at a slow, average, or fast speed. We find evidence for a timescale halo effect: people walking at an average-speed were attributed more positive mental traits, but fewer negative mental traits, relative to slow or fast moving people. These effects held across both cognitive and emotional dimensions of mind and were mediated by overall positive/negative ratings of the person. These results suggest that, rather than eliciting greater perceptions of general mind, the timescale bias may reflect a generalized positivity toward average speed people relative to slow or fast moving people. PMID:24421882

  12. Energy flux correlations and moving mirrors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ford, L.H.; Roman, Thomas A.

    2004-01-01

    We study the quantum stress tensor correlation function for a massless scalar field in a flat two-dimensional spacetime containing a moving mirror. We construct the correlation functions for right-moving and left-moving fluxes for an arbitrary trajectory, and then specialize them to the case of a mirror trajectory for which the expectation value of the stress tensor describes a pair of delta-function pulses, one of negative energy and one of positive energy. The flux correlation function describes the fluctuations around this mean stress tensor, and reveals subtle changes in the correlations between regions where the mean flux vanishes

  13. Distributed Measurement Data Gathering about Moving Objects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivan Kholod

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes approaches to gathering measurement data about moving objects in networks with low bandwidth. The first approach uses Fog computing conception and suggests moving assessing the quality of the measurement data into measuring points. The second approach uses prediction of telemetry quality by mining models. In addition, the paper presents implementation of these approaches based on actor model. As a result, it became possible not only to load balancing among edge and cloud nodes, but also to significantly reduce the network traffic, which in turn brings the possibility of decreasing the requirements for communication channels bandwidth and of using wireless networks for gathering measurement data about moving objects.

  14. Exoplanet Caught on the Move

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-06-01

    For the first time, astronomers have been able to directly follow the motion of an exoplanet as it moves from one side of its host star to the other. The planet has the smallest orbit so far of all directly imaged exoplanets, lying almost as close to its parent star as Saturn is to the Sun. Scientists believe that it may have formed in a similar way to the giant planets in the Solar System. Because the star is so young, this discovery proves that gas giant planets can form within discs in only a few million years, a short time in cosmic terms. Only 12 million years old, or less than three-thousandths of the age of the Sun, Beta Pictoris is 75% more massive than our parent star. It is located about 60 light-years away towards the constellation of Pictor (the Painter) and is one of the best-known examples of a star surrounded by a dusty debris disc [1]. Earlier observations showed a warp of the disc, a secondary inclined disc and comets falling onto the star. "Those were indirect, but tell-tale signs that strongly suggested the presence of a massive planet, and our new observations now definitively prove this," says team leader Anne-Marie Lagrange. "Because the star is so young, our results prove that giant planets can form in discs in time-spans as short as a few million years." Recent observations have shown that discs around young stars disperse within a few million years, and that giant planet formation must occur faster than previously thought. Beta Pictoris is now clear proof that this is indeed possible. The team used the NAOS-CONICA instrument (or NACO [2]), mounted on one of the 8.2-metre Unit Telescopes of ESO's Very Large Telescope (VLT), to study the immediate surroundings of Beta Pictoris in 2003, 2008 and 2009. In 2003 a faint source inside the disc was seen (eso0842), but it was not possible to exclude the remote possibility that it was a background star. In new images taken in 2008 and spring 2009 the source had disappeared! The most recent

  15. Dog days of summer: Influences on decision of wolves to move pups

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ausband, David E.; Mitchell, Michael S.; Bassing, Sarah B.; Nordhagen, Matthew; Smith, Douglas W.; Stahler, Daniel R.

    2016-01-01

    For animals that forage widely, protecting young from predation can span relatively long time periods due to the inability of young to travel with and be protected by their parents. Moving relatively immobile young to improve access to important resources, limit detection of concentrated scent by predators, and decrease infestations by ectoparasites can be advantageous. Moving young, however, can also expose them to increased mortality risks (e.g., accidents, getting lost, predation). For group-living animals that live in variable environments and care for young over extended time periods, the influence of biotic factors (e.g., group size, predation risk) and abiotic factors (e.g., temperature and precipitation) on the decision to move young is unknown. We used data from 25 satellite-collared wolves ( Canis lupus ) in Idaho, Montana, and Yellowstone National Park to evaluate how these factors could influence the decision to move pups during the pup-rearing season. We hypothesized that litter size, the number of adults in a group, and perceived predation risk would positively affect the number of times gray wolves moved pups. We further hypothesized that wolves would move their pups more often when it was hot and dry to ensure sufficient access to water. Contrary to our hypothesis, monthly temperature above the 30-year average was negatively related to the number of times wolves moved their pups. Monthly precipitation above the 30-year average, however, was positively related to the amount of time wolves spent at pup-rearing sites after leaving the natal den. We found little relationship between risk of predation (by grizzly bears, humans, or conspecifics) or group and litter sizes and number of times wolves moved their pups. Our findings suggest that abiotic factors most strongly influence the decision of wolves to move pups, although responses to unpredictable biotic events (e.g., a predator encountering pups) cannot be ruled out.

  16. Quantum correlation with moving beamsplitters in relativistic ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    In multisimultaneity, as in the pilot-wave model, each particle emerging ... reference frames, each defining a time ordering, hence the name of multisimultaneity. In ... The setup we used to test entanglement of the photon pairs with moving ...

  17. MOVES2010a regional level sensitivity analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-12-10

    This document discusses the sensitivity of various input parameter effects on emission rates using the US Environmental Protection Agencys (EPAs) MOVES2010a model at the regional level. Pollutants included in the study are carbon monoxide (CO),...

  18. Preparing Your Child for a Move

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... it. Kids can need some time and special attention during the transition. Try these tips to make the process less stressful for everyone. Making the Decision to Move Many kids thrive on familiarity and ...

  19. Being Moved: Linguistic Representation and Conceptual Structure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Milena eKuehnast

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available This study explored the organisation of the semantic field and the conceptual structure of moving experiences by investigating German-language expressions referring to the emotional state of being moved. We used present and past participles of eight psychological verbs as primes in a free word-association task, as these grammatical forms place their conceptual focus on the eliciting situation and on the felt emotional state, respectively. By applying a taxonomy of basic knowledge types and computing the Cognitive Salience Index, we identified joy and sadness as key emotional ingredients of being moved, and significant life events and art experiences as main elicitors of this emotional state. Metric multidimensional scaling analyses of the semantic field revealed that the core terms designate a cluster of emotional states characterised by low degrees of arousal and slightly positive valence, the latter due to a nearly balanced representation of positive and negative elements in the conceptual structure of being moved.

  20. FDTD Seismic Simulation of Moving Tracked Vehicle

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Ketcham, Stephen

    2000-01-01

    This paper describes the utility of a large finite-difference time domain (FDTD) simulation of seismic wave propagation from a spatially and time varying source that generically represents a moving tracked vehicle...

  1. Moving objects management models, techniques and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Meng, Xiaofeng; Xu, Jiajie

    2014-01-01

    This book describes the topics of moving objects modeling and location tracking, indexing and querying, clustering, location uncertainty, traffic aware navigation and privacy issues as well as the application to intelligent transportation systems.

  2. Evaluation of Seasonal, ANN, and Hybrid Models in Modeling Urban Water Consumption A Case Study of Rash City

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seyed Nematollah Mousavi

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Forecasting future water consumption in cities to plan for the required capacities in urban water supply systems (including water transmission networks and water treatment facilities depends on the application of behavioral models of uban water consumption. Being located in the North-South corridor, Rasht City is assuming a new role to play in the national economy as a foreign trade center. It will, thus, be necessary to review its present urban infrastructure in order to draft the required infrastructural development plans for meeting the city’s future water demands. The three Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA, Artificial Neural Network (ANN, and SARIMABP approaches were employed in present study to model and forecast Rasht urban water consumption using monthly time series for the period 2001‒2008 of urban water consumption in Rasht. The seasonal unit root test was applied to develop the relevant SARIMA model. Results showed that all the seasonal and non-seasonal unit roots are present in all the frequencies in the monthly time series for Rasht urban water consumption. Using a proper filter, the SAIMA patterns were estimated. In a second stage the SARIMA output was used to determine the ANN output and the hybrid SARIMABP structure was accordingly constructed. The values for Rasht urban water consumption predicted by the three models indicated the superiority of the SARIMABP hybrid model as evidenced by the forecast error index of 0.41% obtained for this model. The other two models of SARIMA and ANN were, however, found to yield acceptable results for urban water managers since the forecasting error recorded for them was below 1%.

  3. Operational overhead of moving to higher energies

    CERN Document Server

    Lamont, M

    2011-01-01

    The operational overheads of moving above 3.5 TeV are examined. The costs of performing such a move at the start, or during, the 2011 run are evaluated. The impact of operation with beams above 3.5 TeV on machine protection systems is briefly reviewed, and any potential limitations are enumerated. Finally the possible benefits of increasing the beam energy on the luminosity are discussed.

  4. Being moved: linguistic representation and conceptual structure

    OpenAIRE

    Kuehnast, Milena; Wagner, Valentin; Wassiliwizky, Eugen; Jacobsen, Thomas; Menninghaus, Winfried

    2014-01-01

    This study explored the organization of the semantic field and the conceptual structure of moving experiences by investigating German-language expressions referring to the emotional state of being moved. We used present and past participles of eight psychological verbs as primes in a free word-association task, as these grammatical forms place their conceptual focus on the eliciting situation and on the felt emotional state, respectively. By applying a taxonomy of basic knowledge types and co...

  5. A comparison of moving object detection methods for real-time moving object detection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roshan, Aditya; Zhang, Yun

    2014-06-01

    Moving object detection has a wide variety of applications from traffic monitoring, site monitoring, automatic theft identification, face detection to military surveillance. Many methods have been developed across the globe for moving object detection, but it is very difficult to find one which can work globally in all situations and with different types of videos. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate existing moving object detection methods which can be implemented in software on a desktop or laptop, for real time object detection. There are several moving object detection methods noted in the literature, but few of them are suitable for real time moving object detection. Most of the methods which provide for real time movement are further limited by the number of objects and the scene complexity. This paper evaluates the four most commonly used moving object detection methods as background subtraction technique, Gaussian mixture model, wavelet based and optical flow based methods. The work is based on evaluation of these four moving object detection methods using two (2) different sets of cameras and two (2) different scenes. The moving object detection methods have been implemented using MatLab and results are compared based on completeness of detected objects, noise, light change sensitivity, processing time etc. After comparison, it is observed that optical flow based method took least processing time and successfully detected boundary of moving objects which also implies that it can be implemented for real-time moving object detection.

  6. 20 CFR 404.221 - Computing your average monthly wage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 20 Employees' Benefits 2 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Computing your average monthly wage. 404.221... DISABILITY INSURANCE (1950- ) Computing Primary Insurance Amounts Average-Monthly-Wage Method of Computing Primary Insurance Amounts § 404.221 Computing your average monthly wage. (a) General. Under the average...

  7. Average and local structure of α-CuI by configurational averaging

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mohn, Chris E; Stoelen, Svein

    2007-01-01

    Configurational Boltzmann averaging together with density functional theory are used to study in detail the average and local structure of the superionic α-CuI. We find that the coppers are spread out with peaks in the atom-density at the tetrahedral sites of the fcc sublattice of iodines. We calculate Cu-Cu, Cu-I and I-I pair radial distribution functions, the distribution of coordination numbers and the distribution of Cu-I-Cu, I-Cu-I and Cu-Cu-Cu bond-angles. The partial pair distribution functions are in good agreement with experimental neutron diffraction-reverse Monte Carlo, extended x-ray absorption fine structure and ab initio molecular dynamics results. In particular, our results confirm the presence of a prominent peak at around 2.7 A in the Cu-Cu pair distribution function as well as a broader, less intense peak at roughly 4.3 A. We find highly flexible bonds and a range of coordination numbers for both iodines and coppers. This structural flexibility is of key importance in order to understand the exceptional conductivity of coppers in α-CuI; the iodines can easily respond to changes in the local environment as the coppers diffuse, and a myriad of different diffusion-pathways is expected due to the large variation in the local motifs

  8. Analysis and comparison of safety models using average daily, average hourly, and microscopic traffic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Ling; Abdel-Aty, Mohamed; Wang, Xuesong; Yu, Rongjie

    2018-02-01

    There have been plenty of traffic safety studies based on average daily traffic (ADT), average hourly traffic (AHT), or microscopic traffic at 5 min intervals. Nevertheless, not enough research has compared the performance of these three types of safety studies, and seldom of previous studies have intended to find whether the results of one type of study is transferable to the other two studies. First, this study built three models: a Bayesian Poisson-lognormal model to estimate the daily crash frequency using ADT, a Bayesian Poisson-lognormal model to estimate the hourly crash frequency using AHT, and a Bayesian logistic regression model for the real-time safety analysis using microscopic traffic. The model results showed that the crash contributing factors found by different models were comparable but not the same. Four variables, i.e., the logarithm of volume, the standard deviation of speed, the logarithm of segment length, and the existence of diverge segment, were positively significant in the three models. Additionally, weaving segments experienced higher daily and hourly crash frequencies than merge and basic segments. Then, each of the ADT-based, AHT-based, and real-time models was used to estimate safety conditions at different levels: daily and hourly, meanwhile, the real-time model was also used in 5 min intervals. The results uncovered that the ADT- and AHT-based safety models performed similar in predicting daily and hourly crash frequencies, and the real-time safety model was able to provide hourly crash frequency. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Camouflage, detection and identification of moving targets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, Joanna R; Cuthill, Innes C; Baddeley, Roland; Shohet, Adam J; Scott-Samuel, Nicholas E

    2013-05-07

    Nearly all research on camouflage has investigated its effectiveness for concealing stationary objects. However, animals have to move, and patterns that only work when the subject is static will heavily constrain behaviour. We investigated the effects of different camouflages on the three stages of predation-detection, identification and capture-in a computer-based task with humans. An initial experiment tested seven camouflage strategies on static stimuli. In line with previous literature, background-matching and disruptive patterns were found to be most successful. Experiment 2 showed that if stimuli move, an isolated moving object on a stationary background cannot avoid detection or capture regardless of the type of camouflage. Experiment 3 used an identification task and showed that while camouflage is unable to slow detection or capture, camouflaged targets are harder to identify than uncamouflaged targets when similar background objects are present. The specific details of the camouflage patterns have little impact on this effect. If one has to move, camouflage cannot impede detection; but if one is surrounded by similar targets (e.g. other animals in a herd, or moving background distractors), then camouflage can slow identification. Despite previous assumptions, motion does not entirely 'break' camouflage.

  10. Temperature distribution in a uniformly moving medium

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mitchell, Joseph D; Petrov, Nikola P

    2009-01-01

    We apply several physical ideas to determine the steady temperature distribution in a medium moving with uniform velocity between two infinite parallel plates. We compute it in the coordinate frame moving with the medium by integration over the 'past' to account for the influence of an infinite set of instantaneous point sources of heat in past moments as seen by an observer moving with the medium. The boundary heat flux is simulated by appropriately distributed point heat sources on the inner side of an adiabatically insulating boundary. We make an extensive use of the Green functions with an emphasis on their physical meaning. The methodology used in this paper is of great pedagogical value as it offers an opportunity for students to see the connection between powerful mathematical techniques and their physical interpretation in an intuitively clear physical problem. We suggest several problems and a challenging project that can be easily incorporated in undergraduate or graduate courses

  11. Assessing air quality in Aksaray with time series analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kadilar, Gamze Özel; Kadilar, Cem

    2017-04-01

    Sulphur dioxide (SO2) is a major air pollutant caused by the dominant usage of diesel, petrol and fuels by vehicles and industries. One of the most air-polluted city in Turkey is Aksaray. Hence, in this study, the level of SO2 is analyzed in Aksaray based on the database monitored at air quality monitoring station of Turkey. Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) approach is used to forecast the level of SO2 air quality parameter. The results indicate that the seasonal ARIMA model provides reliable and satisfactory predictions for the air quality parameters and expected to be an alternative tool for practical assessment and justification.

  12. Energy flow around a moving dislocation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koizumi, H; Kirchner, H O K

    2009-01-01

    A dislocation moving in a lattice emits lattice waves. We study the energy flow accompanying the lattice wave emission in a molecular dynamics situation. About two thirds of the static free energy are emitted as lattice waves from the moving dislocation. Work done by the region around the dislocation helps to initiate the motion from the unstable equilibrium state under a small applied stress, or to compensate the energy emitted as lattice waves when the dislocation makes a long distance motion under a larger stress.

  13. ELECTROMAGNETIC APPARATUS FOR MOVING A ROD

    Science.gov (United States)

    Young, J.N.

    1958-04-22

    An electromagnetic apparatus for moving a rod-like member in small steps in either direction is described. The invention has particular application in the reactor field where the reactor control rods must be moved only a small distance and where the use of mechanical couplings is impractical due to the high- pressure seals required. A neutron-absorbing rod is mounted in a housing with gripping uaits that engage the rod, and coils for magnetizing the gripping units to make them grip, shift, and release the rod are located outside the housing.

  14. No quantum friction between uniformly moving plates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Philbin, T G; Leonhardt, U [School of Physics and Astronomy, University of St Andrews, North Haugh St Andrews, Fife KY16 9SS, Scotland (United Kingdom)], E-mail: tgp3@st-andrews.ac.uk

    2009-03-15

    The Casimir forces between two plates moving parallel to each other at arbitrary constant speed are found by calculating the vacuum electromagnetic stress tensor. The perpendicular force between the plates is modified by the motion but there is no lateral force on the plates. Electromagnetic vacuum fluctuations do not therefore give rise to 'quantum friction' in this case, contrary to previous assertions. The result shows that the Casimir-Polder force on a particle moving at constant speed parallel to a plate also has no lateral component.

  15. No quantum friction between uniformly moving plates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Philbin, T G; Leonhardt, U

    2009-01-01

    The Casimir forces between two plates moving parallel to each other at arbitrary constant speed are found by calculating the vacuum electromagnetic stress tensor. The perpendicular force between the plates is modified by the motion but there is no lateral force on the plates. Electromagnetic vacuum fluctuations do not therefore give rise to 'quantum friction' in this case, contrary to previous assertions. The result shows that the Casimir-Polder force on a particle moving at constant speed parallel to a plate also has no lateral component.

  16. Clustering Moving Objects Using Segments Slopes

    OpenAIRE

    Mohamed E. El-Sharkawi; Hoda M. O. Mokhtar; Omnia Ossama

    2011-01-01

    Given a set of moving object trajectories, we show how to cluster them using k-meansclustering approach. Our proposed clustering algorithm is competitive with the k-means clusteringbecause it specifies the value of “k” based on the segment’s slope of the moving object trajectories. Theadvantage of this approach is that it overcomes the known drawbacks of the k-means algorithm, namely,the dependence on the number of clusters (k), and the dependence on the initial choice of the clusters’centroi...

  17. Moving Shadow Detection in Video Using Cepstrum

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fuat Cogun

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Moving shadows constitute problems in various applications such as image segmentation and object tracking. The main cause of these problems is the misclassification of the shadow pixels as target pixels. Therefore, the use of an accurate and reliable shadow detection method is essential to realize intelligent video processing applications. In this paper, a cepstrum-based method for moving shadow detection is presented. The proposed method is tested on outdoor and indoor video sequences using well-known benchmark test sets. To show the improvements over previous approaches, quantitative metrics are introduced and comparisons based on these metrics are made.

  18. Analytical expressions for conditional averages: A numerical test

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pécseli, H.L.; Trulsen, J.

    1991-01-01

    Conditionally averaged random potential fluctuations are an important quantity for analyzing turbulent electrostatic plasma fluctuations. Experimentally, this averaging can be readily performed by sampling the fluctuations only when a certain condition is fulfilled at a reference position...

  19. Experimental demonstration of squeezed-state quantum averaging

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lassen, Mikael Østergaard; Madsen, Lars Skovgaard; Sabuncu, Metin

    2010-01-01

    We propose and experimentally demonstrate a universal quantum averaging process implementing the harmonic mean of quadrature variances. The averaged variances are prepared probabilistically by means of linear optical interference and measurement-induced conditioning. We verify that the implemented...

  20. 77 FR 16566 - Submission for OMB Review, Comment Request, Proposed Collection: Let's Move Museums, Let's Move...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-03-21

    ..., Proposed Collection: Let's Move Museums, Let's Move Gardens AGENCY: Institute of Museum and Library..., comment request. SUMMARY: The Institute of Museum and Library Services announces that the following... functions of the agency, including whether the information will have practical utility; Evaluate the...

  1. Detection of moving objects from a moving platform in urban scenes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Haar, F.B. ter; Hollander, R.J.M. den; Dijk, J.

    2010-01-01

    Moving object detection in urban scenes is important for the guidance of autonomous vehicles, robot navigation, and monitoring. In this paper moving objects are automatically detected using three sequential frames and tracked over a longer period. To this extend we modify the plane+parallax,

  2. The flattening of the average potential in models with fermions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bornholdt, S.

    1993-01-01

    The average potential is a scale dependent scalar effective potential. In a phase with spontaneous symmetry breaking its inner region becomes flat as the averaging extends over infinite volume and the average potential approaches the convex effective potential. Fermion fluctuations affect the shape of the average potential in this region and its flattening with decreasing physical scale. They have to be taken into account to find the true minimum of the scalar potential which determines the scale of spontaneous symmetry breaking. (orig.)

  3. Modeling an Application's Theoretical Minimum and Average Transactional Response Times

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Paiz, Mary Rose [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2015-04-01

    The theoretical minimum transactional response time of an application serves as a ba- sis for the expected response time. The lower threshold for the minimum response time represents the minimum amount of time that the application should take to complete a transaction. Knowing the lower threshold is beneficial in detecting anomalies that are re- sults of unsuccessful transactions. On the converse, when an application's response time falls above an upper threshold, there is likely an anomaly in the application that is causing unusual performance issues in the transaction. This report explains how the non-stationary Generalized Extreme Value distribution is used to estimate the lower threshold of an ap- plication's daily minimum transactional response time. It also explains how the seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average time series model is used to estimate the upper threshold for an application's average transactional response time.

  4. BOX & JENKINS METHODOLOGY: AN APLICATION IN RAW MILK DATA FROM THE STATE OF MINAS GERAIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eduardo Campana Barbosa

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available The Box & Jenkins methodology was used to obtain a statistical model for estimate the production in liters of milk of the 6 first months of 2013 in Minas Gerais state, adjusting SARIMA (p, d, q x (P, D, Qs models, where d and D are the number of differences to remove the trend and seasonality of time series, p and q are the order of the autoregressive and moving average operators, P and Q are the order of the autoregressive and moving average seasonal operators and s is the seasonal periodicity. The Akaike Criterion Information (AIC procedure was used to select the 6 most parsimonious models and to find the best one the error indicators Mean Squared Error (EQM and Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE were analyzed, in addition to the assumptions of residues white noise. The Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average SARIMA (3,1,2 x (0,1,212 was upper, view of the principle of parsimony and with more precise estimates. The forecast was more adjusted to the real values of milk production in Minas Gerais state and the model had smaller error indicators. The residues estimated were by this model white noise.

  5. 20 CFR 404.220 - Average-monthly-wage method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 20 Employees' Benefits 2 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Average-monthly-wage method. 404.220 Section... INSURANCE (1950- ) Computing Primary Insurance Amounts Average-Monthly-Wage Method of Computing Primary Insurance Amounts § 404.220 Average-monthly-wage method. (a) Who is eligible for this method. You must...

  6. A time-averaged cosmic ray propagation theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klimas, A.J.

    1975-01-01

    An argument is presented, which casts doubt on our ability to choose an appropriate magnetic field ensemble for computing the average behavior of cosmic ray particles. An alternate procedure, using time-averages rather than ensemble-averages, is presented. (orig.) [de

  7. 7 CFR 51.2561 - Average moisture content.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Average moisture content. 51.2561 Section 51.2561... STANDARDS) United States Standards for Grades of Shelled Pistachio Nuts § 51.2561 Average moisture content. (a) Determining average moisture content of the lot is not a requirement of the grades, except when...

  8. Averaging in SU(2) open quantum random walk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ampadu Clement

    2014-01-01

    We study the average position and the symmetry of the distribution in the SU(2) open quantum random walk (OQRW). We show that the average position in the central limit theorem (CLT) is non-uniform compared with the average position in the non-CLT. The symmetry of distribution is shown to be even in the CLT

  9. Averaging in SU(2) open quantum random walk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clement, Ampadu

    2014-03-01

    We study the average position and the symmetry of the distribution in the SU(2) open quantum random walk (OQRW). We show that the average position in the central limit theorem (CLT) is non-uniform compared with the average position in the non-CLT. The symmetry of distribution is shown to be even in the CLT.

  10. Spatiotemporal Compression Techniques for Moving Point Objects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meratnia, Nirvana; de By, R.A.; de By, R.A.; Bertino, E.

    Moving object data handling has received a fair share of attention over recent years in the spatial database community. This is understandable as positioning technology is rapidly making its way into the consumer market, not only through the already ubiquitous cell phone but soon also through small,

  11. Moving Divertor Plates in a Tokamak

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zweben, S.J.; Zhang, H.

    2009-01-01

    Moving divertor plates could help solve some of the problems of the tokamak divertor through mechanical ingenuity rather than plasma physics. These plates would be passively heated on each pass through the tokamak and cooled and reprocessed outside the tokamak. There are many design options using varying plate shapes, orientations, motions, coatings, and compositions

  12. Moving vortices in noncommutative gauge theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Horvathy, P.A.; Stichel, P.C.

    2004-01-01

    Exact time-dependent solutions of nonrelativistic noncommutative Chern-Simons gauge theory are presented in closed analytic form. They are different from (indeed orthogonal to) those discussed recently by Hadasz, Lindstroem, Rocek and von Unge. Unlike theirs, our solutions can move with an arbitrary constant velocity, and can be obtained from the previously known static solutions by the recently found 'exotic' boost symmetry

  13. EPI moved in beam S3

    CERN Multimedia

    1977-01-01

    The housing of the External Particle Identifier (EPI) is being moved to S3 beam. Test measurements with EPI were performed in the S3 beam between 20 and 110 GeV/c, before installing it behind BEBC. 110 GeV/c before

  14. The Electromagnetic Force between Two Moving Charges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minkin, Leonid; Shapovalov, Alexander S.

    2018-01-01

    A simple model of parallel motion of two point charges and the subsequent analysis of the electromagnetic field transformation invariant quantity are considered. It is shown that ignoring the coupling of electric and magnetic fields, as is done in some introductory physics books, can lead to miscalculations of the force between moving charges.…

  15. Electromagnetic Sources in Moving Simple Medium

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Johannsen, Günther

    1970-01-01

    A retarded potential tensor (4-vector) is derived in an arbitrary system of inertia for an arbitrary electromagnetic source in a moving homogeneous, isotropic, nondispersive, lossless dielectric. The velocity is uniform, and the result is relativistic correct. ©1970 The American Institute...

  16. Electromagnetic Sources in a Moving Conducting Medium

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Johannsen, Günther

    1971-01-01

    The problem of an arbitrary source distribution in a uniformly moving, homogeneous, isotropic, nondispersive, conducting medium is solved. The technique used is to solve the problem in the rest system of the medium and then write the result in an appropriate four-dimensional, covariant form which...

  17. Moving On: Young People and Substance Abuse

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daley, Kathryn; Chamberlain, Chris

    2009-01-01

    To help explain why some young people move from recreational drug use to substance abuse, twelve in-depth interviews were conducted with young people who had experienced problematic substance use. The data were supplemented by statistical data on 111 young people. The researchers found a variety of "structural" factors that help explain…

  18. Towards a Psychological Construct of Being Moved

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Menninghaus, Winfried; Wagner, Valentin; Hanich, Julian; Wassiliwizky, Eugen; Kuehnast, Milena; Jacobsen, Thomas

    2015-01-01

    The emotional state of being moved, though frequently referred to in both classical rhetoric and current language use, is far from established as a well-defined psychological construct. In a series of three studies, we investigated eliciting scenarios, emotional ingredients, appraisal patterns,

  19. Cooperative Scalable Moving Continuous Query Processing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Li, Xiaohui; Karras, Panagiotis; Jensen, Christian S.

    2012-01-01

    of the global view and handle the majority of the workload. Meanwhile, moving clients, having basic memory and computation resources, handle small portions of the workload. This model is further enhanced by dynamic region allocation and grid size adjustment mechanisms that reduce the communication...... and computation cost for both servers and clients. An experimental study demonstrates that our approaches offer better scalability than competitors...

  20. Supportive Discourse Moves in Persian Requests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nodoushan, Mohammad Ali Salmani; Allami, Hamid

    2011-01-01

    This paper reports the findings of a study designed to investigate the types of supportive discourse moves employed by Persian speakers in their Requestive Speech Acts. 372 respondents took a Discourse Completion Test (DCT) with six scenarios ranging from formal to informal degrees of Perceived Situational Seriousness, and returned 2232 Requestive…

  1. Slow-light pulses in moving media

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fiurasek, J.; Leonhardt, U.; Parentani, R.

    2002-01-01

    Slow light in moving media reaches a counterintuitive regime when the flow speed of the medium approaches the group velocity of light. Pulses can penetrate a region where a counterpropagating flow exceeds the group velocity. When the counterflow slows down, pulses are reflected

  2. On the atmosphere of a moving body

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Johan Rønby; Aref, Hassan

    2010-01-01

    We explore whether a rigid body moving freely with no circulation around it in a two-dimensional ideal fluid can carry a fluid "atmosphere" with it in its motion. Somewhat surprisingly, the answer appears to be "yes." When the body is elongated and the motion is dominated by rotation, we demonstr...

  3. On the atmosphere of a moving body

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Johan Rønby; Aref, Hassan

    2010-01-01

    We have explored whether a rigid body moving freely with no circulation around it in a two-dimensional ideal fluid can carry a fluid ``atmosphere'' with it in its motion. Somewhat surprisingly, the answer appears to be ``yes''. When the body is elongated and the motion is dominated by rotation, w...

  4. Holistic Processing of Static and Moving Faces

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Mintao; Bülthoff, Isabelle

    2017-01-01

    Humans' face ability develops and matures with extensive experience in perceiving, recognizing, and interacting with faces that move most of the time. However, how facial movements affect 1 core aspect of face ability--holistic face processing--remains unclear. Here we investigated the influence of rigid facial motion on holistic and part-based…

  5. Finding Funds to Move Summer Learning Forward

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seidel, Bob

    2015-01-01

    Summer learning loss creates a permanent drag on the US education system. With the generous support of the Charles Stewart Mott Foundation, the National Summer Learning Association (NSLA) developed "Moving Summer Learning Forward: A Strategic Roadmap for Funding in Tough Times" to provide out-of-school time programs, school districts,…

  6. Strategic Game Moves Mediate Implicit Science Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rowe, Elizabeth; Baker, Ryan S.; Asbell-Clarke, Jodi

    2015-01-01

    Educational games have the potential to be innovative forms of learning assessment, by allowing us to not just study their knowledge but the process that takes students to that knowledge. This paper examines the mediating role of players' moves in digital games on changes in their pre-post classroom measures of implicit science learning. We…

  7. Moving Feedback Forward: Theory to Practice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orsmond, Paul; Maw, Stephen J.; Park, Julian R.; Gomez, Stephen; Crook, Anne C.

    2013-01-01

    There is substantial research interest in tutor feedback and students' perception and use of such feedback. This paper considers some of the major issues raised in relation to tutor feedback and student learning. We explore some of the current feedback drivers, most notably the need for feedback to move away from simply a monologue from a tutor to…

  8. Clutter Moves in Old Age Homecare

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lutz, Peter

    2010-01-01

    This chapter introduces the notion of clutter moves as an experimental heuristic for tracing how movement threads together a range of cluttered entities in old age homecare ecologies. In particular it is concerned with older people and their cluttered technologies. It is based on empirical data o...

  9. Moving frames for heart fiber geometry

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Piuze, Emmanuel; Sporring, Jon; Siddiqi, Kaleem

    2013-01-01

    fibers is central to our understanding of normal heart function. Motivated by a recent abstraction by Savadjiev et al. of heart wall fibers into generalized helicoid minimal surfaces, this paper develops an extension based on differential forms. The key idea is to use Maurer-Cartan’s method of moving...

  10. Moving UA5 into the beam

    CERN Multimedia

    1981-01-01

    The streamer chamber of UA5, which had been operating at the ISR until Easter, was installed in its platform, in ECA4 alongside the UA2 detector and in September was moved into the beam (this photo). See Annual Report 1981 p. 128.

  11. Assessing the Cartographic Visualization of Moving Objects ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Four representations are considered in this research: the single static map, multiple static maps, animation, and the space-time cube. The study is conducted by considering four movement characteristics (or aspects of moving objects): speed change, returns, stops, and path of movement. The ability of users to perceive and ...

  12. Performance of the Analog Moving Window Detector

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, V. Gregers

    1970-01-01

    A type of analog integrating moving window detector for use with a scanning pulse radar is examined. A performance analysis is carried out, which takes into account both the radiation pattern of the antenna and the dynamic character of the detection process due to the angular scanning...

  13. Moving Divertor Plates in a Tokamak

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    S.J. Zweben, H. Zhang

    2009-02-12

    Moving divertor plates could help solve some of the problems of the tokamak divertor through mechanical ingenuity rather than plasma physics. These plates would be passively heated on each pass through the tokamak and cooled and reprocessed outside the tokamak. There are many design options using varying plate shapes, orientations, motions, coatings, and compositions.

  14. Moving Facts in an Arctic field

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hastrup, Kirsten Blinkenberg; Flora, Janne; Andersen, Astrid Oberborbeck

    2016-01-01

    , and an engagement with other disciplinary practices. The gain of our cross-disciplinary experiment was therefore not only to know more about the makings of a particular landscape in a multi-disciplinary perspective, but also to understand how anthropology makes sense of inherently moving facts....

  15. Applying Moving Objects Patterns towards Estimating Future Stocks Direction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Galal Dahab

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Stock is gaining vast popularity as a strategic investment tool not just by investor bankers, but also by the average worker. Large capitals are being traded within the stock market all around the world, making its impact not only macro economically focused, but also greatly valued taking into consideration its direct social impact. As a result, almost 66% of all American citizens are striving in their respective fields every day, trying to come up with better ways to predict and find patterns in stocks that could enhance their estimation and visualization so as to have the opportunity to take better investment decisions. Given the amount of effort that has been put into enhancing stock prediction techniques, there is still a factor that is almost completely neglected when handling stocks. The factor that has been obsolete for so long is in fact the effect of a correlation existing between stocks of the same index or parent company. This paper proposes a distinct approach for studying the correlation between stocks that belong to the same index by modelling stocks as moving objects to be able to track their movements while considering their relationships. Furthermore, it studies one of the movement techniques applied to moving objects to predict stock movement. The results yielded that both the movement technique and correlation coefficient technique are consistent in directions, with minor variations in values. The variations are attributed to the fact that the movement technique takes into consideration the sibling relationship

  16. One-dimensional quantum walk with a moving boundary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kwek, Leong Chuan; Setiawan

    2011-01-01

    Quantum walks are interesting models with potential applications to quantum algorithms and physical processes such as photosynthesis. In this paper, we study two models of one-dimensional quantum walks, namely, quantum walks with a moving absorbing wall and quantum walks with one stationary and one moving absorbing wall. For the former, we calculate numerically the survival probability, the rate of change of average position, and the rate of change of standard deviation of the particle's position in the long time limit for different wall velocities. Moreover, we also study the asymptotic behavior and the dependence of the survival probability on the initial particle's state. While for the latter, we compute the absorption probability of the right stationary wall for different velocities and initial positions of the left wall boundary. The results for these two models are compared with those obtained for the classical model. The difference between the results obtained for the quantum and classical models can be attributed to the difference in the probability distributions.

  17. Isolating and moving single atoms using silicon nanocrystals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carroll, Malcolm S.

    2010-09-07

    A method is disclosed for isolating single atoms of an atomic species of interest by locating the atoms within silicon nanocrystals. This can be done by implanting, on the average, a single atom of the atomic species of interest into each nanocrystal, and then measuring an electrical charge distribution on the nanocrystals with scanning capacitance microscopy (SCM) or electrostatic force microscopy (EFM) to identify and select those nanocrystals having exactly one atom of the atomic species of interest therein. The nanocrystals with the single atom of the atomic species of interest therein can be sorted and moved using an atomic force microscope (AFM) tip. The method is useful for forming nanoscale electronic and optical devices including quantum computers and single-photon light sources.

  18. Effect of 3 Key Factors on Average End to End Delay and Jitter in MANET

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saqib Hakak

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available A mobile ad-hoc network (MANET is a self-configuring infrastructure-less network of mobile devices connected by wireless links where each node or mobile device is independent to move in any desired direction and thus the links keep moving from one node to another. In such a network, the mobile nodes are equipped with CSMA/CA (carrier sense multiple access with collision avoidance transceivers and communicate with each other via radio. In MANETs, routing is considered one of the most difficult and challenging tasks. Because of this, most studies on MANETs have focused on comparing protocols under varying network conditions. But to the best of our knowledge no one has studied the effect of other factors on network performance indicators like throughput, jitter and so on, revealing how much influence a particular factor or group of factors has on each network performance indicator. Thus, in this study the effects of three key factors, i.e. routing protocol, packet size and DSSS rate, were evaluated on key network performance metrics, i.e. average delay and average jitter, as these parameters are crucial for network performance and directly affect the buffering requirements for all video devices and downstream networks.

  19. Averaging and sampling for magnetic-observatory hourly data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. J. Love

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available A time and frequency-domain analysis is made of the effects of averaging and sampling methods used for constructing magnetic-observatory hourly data values. Using 1-min data as a proxy for continuous, geomagnetic variation, we construct synthetic hourly values of two standard types: instantaneous "spot" measurements and simple 1-h "boxcar" averages. We compare these average-sample types with others: 2-h average, Gaussian, and "brick-wall" low-frequency-pass. Hourly spot measurements provide a statistically unbiased representation of the amplitude range of geomagnetic-field variation, but as a representation of continuous field variation over time, they are significantly affected by aliasing, especially at high latitudes. The 1-h, 2-h, and Gaussian average-samples are affected by a combination of amplitude distortion and aliasing. Brick-wall values are not affected by either amplitude distortion or aliasing, but constructing them is, in an operational setting, relatively more difficult than it is for other average-sample types. It is noteworthy that 1-h average-samples, the present standard for observatory hourly data, have properties similar to Gaussian average-samples that have been optimized for a minimum residual sum of amplitude distortion and aliasing. For 1-h average-samples from medium and low-latitude observatories, the average of the combination of amplitude distortion and aliasing is less than the 5.0 nT accuracy standard established by Intermagnet for modern 1-min data. For medium and low-latitude observatories, average differences between monthly means constructed from 1-min data and monthly means constructed from any of the hourly average-sample types considered here are less than the 1.0 nT resolution of standard databases. We recommend that observatories and World Data Centers continue the standard practice of reporting simple 1-h-average hourly values.

  20. 30 CFR 56.14107 - Moving machine parts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Moving machine parts. 56.14107 Section 56.14107... Safety Devices and Maintenance Requirements § 56.14107 Moving machine parts. (a) Moving machine parts... takeup pulleys, flywheels, couplings, shafts, fan blades, and similar moving parts that can cause injury...

  1. Evidence of redshifts in the average solar line profiles of C IV and Si IV from OSO-8 observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roussel-Dupre, D.; Shine, R. A.

    1982-01-01

    Line profiles of C IV and Si V obtained by the Colorado spectrometer on OSO-8 are presented. It is shown that the mean profiles are redshifted with a magnitude varying from 6-20 km/s, and with a mean of 12 km/s. An apparent average downflow of material in the 50,000-100,000 K temperature range is measured. The redshifts are observed in the line center positions of spatially and temporally averaged profiles and are measured either relative to chromospheric Si I lines or from a comparison of sun center and limb profiles. The observations of 6-20 km/s redshifts place constraints on the mechanisms that dominate EUV line emission since it requires a strong weighting of the emission in regions of downward moving material, and since there is little evidence for corresponding upward moving materials in these lines.

  2. Modeling and simulation of dust behaviors behind a moving vehicle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jingfang

    Simulation of physically realistic complex dust behaviors is a difficult and attractive problem in computer graphics. A fast, interactive and visually convincing model of dust behaviors behind moving vehicles is very useful in computer simulation, training, education, art, advertising, and entertainment. In my dissertation, an experimental interactive system has been implemented for the simulation of dust behaviors behind moving vehicles. The system includes physically-based models, particle systems, rendering engines and graphical user interface (GUI). I have employed several vehicle models including tanks, cars, and jeeps to test and simulate in different scenarios and conditions. Calm weather, winding condition, vehicle turning left or right, and vehicle simulation controlled by users from the GUI are all included. I have also tested the factors which play against the physical behaviors and graphics appearances of the dust particles through GUI or off-line scripts. The simulations are done on a Silicon Graphics Octane station. The animation of dust behaviors is achieved by physically-based modeling and simulation. The flow around a moving vehicle is modeled using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) techniques. I implement a primitive variable and pressure-correction approach to solve the three dimensional incompressible Navier Stokes equations in a volume covering the moving vehicle. An alternating- direction implicit (ADI) method is used for the solution of the momentum equations, with a successive-over- relaxation (SOR) method for the solution of the Poisson pressure equation. Boundary conditions are defined and simplified according to their dynamic properties. The dust particle dynamics is modeled using particle systems, statistics, and procedure modeling techniques. Graphics and real-time simulation techniques, such as dynamics synchronization, motion blur, blending, and clipping have been employed in the rendering to achieve realistic appearing dust

  3. Confinement, average forces, and the Ehrenfest theorem for a one ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Pramana – Journal of Physics; Volume 80; Issue 5. Confinement ... A free particle moving on the entire real line, which is then permanently confined to a line segment or `a box' (this situation is achieved by taking the limit V 0 → ∞ in a finite well potential). This case is .... Please take note of this change.

  4. On multiscale moving contact line theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Shaofan; Fan, Houfu

    2015-07-08

    In this paper, a multiscale moving contact line (MMCL) theory is presented and employed to simulate liquid droplet spreading and capillary motion. The proposed MMCL theory combines a coarse-grained adhesive contact model with a fluid interface membrane theory, so that it can couple molecular scale adhesive interaction and surface tension with hydrodynamics of microscale flow. By doing so, the intermolecular force, the van der Waals or double layer force, separates and levitates the liquid droplet from the supporting solid substrate, which avoids the shear stress singularity caused by the no-slip condition in conventional hydrodynamics theory of moving contact line. Thus, the MMCL allows the difference of the surface energies and surface stresses to drive droplet spreading naturally. To validate the proposed MMCL theory, we have employed it to simulate droplet spreading over various elastic substrates. The numerical simulation results obtained by using MMCL are in good agreement with the molecular dynamics results reported in the literature.

  5. Identifying New Members of Nearby Moving Groups

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holmbeck, Erika; Vican, Laura

    2014-06-01

    Our group has assembled a sample of 14,000 stars of spectral types B9-M9 with measured UVW Galactic space velocities and lying within 125 pc of Earth. We have identified candidate members of three nearby young (less than 100 Myr) moving groups. For stars of spectral types G5 and later, we have used the Kast spectrometer on the Shane 3m telescope at Lick Observatory to measure lithium abundance in order to determine stellar ages. With the data we have obtained from this run, we will be able to establish whether our candidates are bona fide members of the moving groups in question. I will be presenting the preliminary results from this survey, including spectra of the ~50 stars observed thus far. These nearby young stars will make excellent targets for direct imaging followup surveys, since any giant planets around young stars will still be warm, and will therefore be bright enough to detect with instruments like GPI.

  6. Drop Impact on to Moving Liquid Pools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muñoz-Sánchez, Beatriz Natividad; Castrejón-Pita, José Rafael; Castrejón-Pita, Alfonso Arturo; Hutchings, Ian M.

    2014-11-01

    The deposition of droplets on to moving liquid substrates is an omnipresent situation both in nature and industry. A diverse spectrum of phenomena emerges from this simple process. In this work we present a parametric experimental study that discerns the dynamics of the impact in terms of the physical properties of the fluid and the relative velocity between the impacting drop and the moving liquid pool. The behaviour ranges from smooth coalescence (characterized by little mixing) to violent splashing (generation of multiple satellite droplets and interfacial vorticity). In addition, transitional regimes such as bouncing and surfing are also found. We classify the system dynamics and show a parametric diagram for the conditions of each regime. This work was supported by the EPSRC (Grant EP/H018913/1), the Royal Society, Becas Santander Universidades and the International Relationships Office of the University of Extremadura.

  7. Safety Impact of Average Speed Control in the UK

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lahrmann, Harry Spaabæk; Brassøe, Bo; Johansen, Jonas Wibert

    2016-01-01

    of automatic speed control was point-based, but in recent years a potentially more effective alternative automatic speed control method has been introduced. This method is based upon records of drivers’ average travel speed over selected sections of the road and is normally called average speed control...... in the UK. The study demonstrates that the introduction of average speed control results in statistically significant and substantial reductions both in speed and in number of accidents. The evaluation indicates that average speed control has a higher safety effect than point-based automatic speed control....

  8. Decision trees with minimum average depth for sorting eight elements

    KAUST Repository

    AbouEisha, Hassan M.

    2015-11-19

    We prove that the minimum average depth of a decision tree for sorting 8 pairwise different elements is equal to 620160/8!. We show also that each decision tree for sorting 8 elements, which has minimum average depth (the number of such trees is approximately equal to 8.548×10^326365), has also minimum depth. Both problems were considered by Knuth (1998). To obtain these results, we use tools based on extensions of dynamic programming which allow us to make sequential optimization of decision trees relative to depth and average depth, and to count the number of decision trees with minimum average depth.

  9. Comparison of Interpolation Methods as Applied to Time Synchronous Averaging

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Decker, Harry

    1999-01-01

    Several interpolation techniques were investigated to determine their effect on time synchronous averaging of gear vibration signals and also the effects on standard health monitoring diagnostic parameters...

  10. Light-cone averaging in cosmology: formalism and applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gasperini, M.; Marozzi, G.; Veneziano, G.; Nugier, F.

    2011-01-01

    We present a general gauge invariant formalism for defining cosmological averages that are relevant for observations based on light-like signals. Such averages involve either null hypersurfaces corresponding to a family of past light-cones or compact surfaces given by their intersection with timelike hypersurfaces. Generalized Buchert-Ehlers commutation rules for derivatives of these light-cone averages are given. After introducing some adapted ''geodesic light-cone'' coordinates, we give explicit expressions for averaging the redshift to luminosity-distance relation and the so-called ''redshift drift'' in a generic inhomogeneous Universe

  11. Analysis of the Dose Distribution of Moving Organ using a Moving Phantom System

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Yon Lae; Park, Byung Moon; Bae, Yong Ki; Kang, Min Young; Bang, Dong Wan; Lee, Gui Won

    2006-01-01

    Few researches have been performed on the dose distribution of the moving organ for radiotherapy so far. In order to simulate the organ motion caused by respiratory function, multipurpose phantom and moving device was used and dosimetric measurements for dose distribution of the moving organs were conducted in this study. The purpose of our study was to evaluate how dose distributions are changed due to respiratory motion. A multipurpose phantom and a moving device were developed for the measurement of the dose distribution of the moving organ due to respiratory function. Acryl chosen design of the phantom was considered the most obvious choice for phantom material. For construction of the phantom, we used acryl and cork with density of 1.14 g/cm 3 , 0.32 g/cm 3 respectively. Acryl and cork slab in the phantom were used to simulate the normal organ and lung respectively. The moving phantom system was composed of moving device, moving control system, and acryl and cork phantom. Gafchromic film and EDR2 film were used to measure dose distributions. The moving device system may be driven by two directional step motors and able to perform 2 dimensional movements (x, z axis), but only 1 dimensional movement(z axis) was used for this study. Larger penumbra was shown in the cork phantom than in the acryl phantom. The dose profile and isodose curve of Gafchromic EBT film were not uniform since the film has small optical density responding to the dose. As the organ motion was increased, the blurrings in penumbra, flatness, and symmetry were increased. Most of measurements of dose distributions, Gafchromic EBT film has poor flatness and symmetry than EDR2 film, but both penumbra distributions were more or less comparable. The Gafchromic EBT film is more useful as it does not need development and more radiation dose could be exposed than EDR2 film without losing film characteristics. But as response of the optical density of Gafchromic EBT film to dose is low, beam profiles

  12. Nonholonomic feedback control among moving obstacles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armstrong, Stephen Gregory

    A feedback controller is developed for navigating a nonholonomic vehicle in an area with multiple stationary and possibly moving obstacles. Among other applications the developed algorithms can be used for automatic parking of a passenger car in a parking lot with complex configuration or a ground robot in cluttered environment. Several approaches are explored which combine nonholonomic systems control based on sliding modes and potential field methods.

  13. Culture as a Moving Symbolic Border.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simão, Lívia Mathias

    2016-03-01

    The aim of this paper is to propose the notion of culture as a symbolic moving border. Departing from both, Boesch's (1991) concept of culture as a symbolic field of action, and Herbst's (1995) co-genetic logic, I will discuss the dynamics of self-other relationships in terms of their potentiality as sources of movement in culture. A brief analysis of an empirical material is given in illustrative character of the ideas here exposed.

  14. The electromagnetic force between two moving charges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minkin, Leonid; Shapovalov, Alexander S.

    2018-05-01

    A simple model of parallel motion of two point charges and the subsequent analysis of the electromagnetic field transformation invariant quantity are considered. It is shown that ignoring the coupling of electric and magnetic fields, as is done in some introductory physics books, can lead to miscalculations of the force between moving charges. Conceptual and computational aspects of these issues are discussed, and implications to the design of electron beam devices are considered.

  15. Spark formation as a moving boundary process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebert, Ute

    2006-03-01

    The growth process of spark channels recently becomes accessible through complementary methods. First, I will review experiments with nanosecond photographic resolution and with fast and well defined power supplies that appropriately resolve the dynamics of electric breakdown [1]. Second, I will discuss the elementary physical processes as well as present computations of spark growth and branching with adaptive grid refinement [2]. These computations resolve three well separated scales of the process that emerge dynamically. Third, this scale separation motivates a hierarchy of models on different length scales. In particular, I will discuss a moving boundary approximation for the ionization fronts that generate the conducting channel. The resulting moving boundary problem shows strong similarities with classical viscous fingering. For viscous fingering, it is known that the simplest model forms unphysical cusps within finite time that are suppressed by a regularizing condition on the moving boundary. For ionization fronts, we derive a new condition on the moving boundary of mixed Dirichlet-Neumann type (φ=ɛnφ) that indeed regularizes all structures investigated so far. In particular, we present compact analytical solutions with regularization, both for uniformly translating shapes and for their linear perturbations [3]. These solutions are so simple that they may acquire a paradigmatic role in the future. Within linear perturbation theory, they explicitly show the convective stabilization of a curved front while planar fronts are linearly unstable against perturbations of arbitrary wave length. [1] T.M.P. Briels, E.M. van Veldhuizen, U. Ebert, TU Eindhoven. [2] C. Montijn, J. Wackers, W. Hundsdorfer, U. Ebert, CWI Amsterdam. [3] B. Meulenbroek, U. Ebert, L. Schäfer, Phys. Rev. Lett. 95, 195004 (2005).

  16. BKSTS illustrated dictionary of moving image technology

    CERN Document Server

    Uren, Martin

    2013-01-01

    The fourth edition of the BKSTS dictionary provides clear and concise explanations of the terminology and acronyms encountered in the broadcasting and moving image industries.Convergence of these industries means that those practising within them are increasingly faced with unfamiliar terminology. Martin Uren has reflected this change in his extended choice of industry terms, acronyms and colloquialisms. He provides:- Over 3300 definitions covering film, television, sound and multimedia technologies, together with technical terms from the computing, networks and telecommunications industries.-

  17. Moving object detection using background subtraction

    CERN Document Server

    Shaikh, Soharab Hossain; Chaki, Nabendu

    2014-01-01

    This Springer Brief presents a comprehensive survey of the existing methodologies of background subtraction methods. It presents a framework for quantitative performance evaluation of different approaches and summarizes the public databases available for research purposes. This well-known methodology has applications in moving object detection from video captured with a stationery camera, separating foreground and background objects and object classification and recognition. The authors identify common challenges faced by researchers including gradual or sudden illumination change, dynamic bac

  18. Moving backwards, moving forward: the experiences of older Filipino migrants adjusting to life in New Zealand

    OpenAIRE

    Montayre, Jed; Neville, Stephen; Holroyd, Eleanor

    2017-01-01

    ABSTRACT Purpose: To explore the experiences of older Filipino migrants adjusting to living permanently in New Zealand. Method: The qualitative descriptive approach taken in this study involved 17 individual face-to-face interviews of older Filipino migrants in New Zealand. Results: Three main themes emerged from the data. The first theme was ?moving backwards and moving forward?, which described how these older Filipino migrants adjusted to challenges they experienced with migration. The sec...

  19. Delineation of facial archetypes by 3d averaging.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaweesh, Ashraf I; Thomas, C David L; Bankier, Agnes; Clement, John G

    2004-10-01

    The objective of this study was to investigate the feasibility of creating archetypal 3D faces through computerized 3D facial averaging. A 3D surface scanner Fiore and its software were used to acquire the 3D scans of the faces while 3D Rugle3 and locally-developed software generated the holistic facial averages. 3D facial averages were created from two ethnic groups; European and Japanese and from children with three previous genetic disorders; Williams syndrome, achondroplasia and Sotos syndrome as well as the normal control group. The method included averaging the corresponding depth (z) coordinates of the 3D facial scans. Compared with other face averaging techniques there was not any warping or filling in the spaces by interpolation; however, this facial average lacked colour information. The results showed that as few as 14 faces were sufficient to create an archetypal facial average. In turn this would make it practical to use face averaging as an identification tool in cases where it would be difficult to recruit a larger number of participants. In generating the average, correcting for size differences among faces was shown to adjust the average outlines of the facial features. It is assumed that 3D facial averaging would help in the identification of the ethnic status of persons whose identity may not be known with certainty. In clinical medicine, it would have a great potential for the diagnosis of syndromes with distinctive facial features. The system would also assist in the education of clinicians in the recognition and identification of such syndromes.

  20. Anticipatory Cyber Security Research: An Ultimate Technique for the First-Move Advantage

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bharat S.Rawal

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Across all industry segments, 96 percent of systems could be breached on average. In the game of cyber security, every moment a new player (attacker is entering the game with new skill sets. An attacker only needs to be effective once while defenders of cyberspace have to be successful all of the time. There will be a first-mover advantage in such a chasing game, which means that the first move often wins. In this paper, in order to face the security challenges brought in by attacker’s first move advantage, we analyzed the past ten years of cyber-attacks, studied the immediate attack’s pattern and offer the tools to predict the next move of the cyber attacker.

  1. Interpreting Bivariate Regression Coefficients: Going beyond the Average

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halcoussis, Dennis; Phillips, G. Michael

    2010-01-01

    Statistics, econometrics, investment analysis, and data analysis classes often review the calculation of several types of averages, including the arithmetic mean, geometric mean, harmonic mean, and various weighted averages. This note shows how each of these can be computed using a basic regression framework. By recognizing when a regression model…

  2. Average stress in a Stokes suspension of disks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Prosperetti, Andrea

    2004-01-01

    The ensemble-average velocity and pressure in an unbounded quasi-random suspension of disks (or aligned cylinders) are calculated in terms of average multipoles allowing for the possibility of spatial nonuniformities in the system. An expression for the stress due to the suspended particles is

  3. 47 CFR 1.959 - Computation of average terrain elevation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 47 Telecommunication 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Computation of average terrain elevation. 1.959 Section 1.959 Telecommunication FEDERAL COMMUNICATIONS COMMISSION GENERAL PRACTICE AND PROCEDURE Wireless Radio Services Applications and Proceedings Application Requirements and Procedures § 1.959 Computation of average terrain elevation. Except a...

  4. 47 CFR 80.759 - Average terrain elevation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 47 Telecommunication 5 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Average terrain elevation. 80.759 Section 80.759 Telecommunication FEDERAL COMMUNICATIONS COMMISSION (CONTINUED) SAFETY AND SPECIAL RADIO SERVICES STATIONS IN THE MARITIME SERVICES Standards for Computing Public Coast Station VHF Coverage § 80.759 Average terrain elevation. (a)(1) Draw radials...

  5. The average covering tree value for directed graph games

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Khmelnitskaya, Anna Borisovna; Selcuk, Özer; Talman, Dolf

    We introduce a single-valued solution concept, the so-called average covering tree value, for the class of transferable utility games with limited communication structure represented by a directed graph. The solution is the average of the marginal contribution vectors corresponding to all covering

  6. The Average Covering Tree Value for Directed Graph Games

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Khmelnitskaya, A.; Selcuk, O.; Talman, A.J.J.

    2012-01-01

    Abstract: We introduce a single-valued solution concept, the so-called average covering tree value, for the class of transferable utility games with limited communication structure represented by a directed graph. The solution is the average of the marginal contribution vectors corresponding to all

  7. 18 CFR 301.7 - Average System Cost methodology functionalization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Average System Cost... REGULATORY COMMISSION, DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY REGULATIONS FOR FEDERAL POWER MARKETING ADMINISTRATIONS AVERAGE SYSTEM COST METHODOLOGY FOR SALES FROM UTILITIES TO BONNEVILLE POWER ADMINISTRATION UNDER NORTHWEST POWER...

  8. Analytic computation of average energy of neutrons inducing fission

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clark, Alexander Rich

    2016-01-01

    The objective of this report is to describe how I analytically computed the average energy of neutrons that induce fission in the bare BeRP ball. The motivation of this report is to resolve a discrepancy between the average energy computed via the FMULT and F4/FM cards in MCNP6 by comparison to the analytic results.

  9. An alternative scheme of the Bogolyubov's average method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ortiz Peralta, T.; Ondarza R, R.; Camps C, E.

    1990-01-01

    In this paper the average energy and the magnetic moment conservation laws in the Drift Theory of charged particle motion are obtained in a simple way. The approach starts from the energy and magnetic moment conservation laws and afterwards the average is performed. This scheme is more economic from the standpoint of time and algebraic calculations than the usual procedure of Bogolyubov's method. (Author)

  10. Decision trees with minimum average depth for sorting eight elements

    KAUST Repository

    AbouEisha, Hassan M.; Chikalov, Igor; Moshkov, Mikhail

    2015-01-01

    We prove that the minimum average depth of a decision tree for sorting 8 pairwise different elements is equal to 620160/8!. We show also that each decision tree for sorting 8 elements, which has minimum average depth (the number of such trees

  11. Bounds on Average Time Complexity of Decision Trees

    KAUST Repository

    Chikalov, Igor

    2011-01-01

    In this chapter, bounds on the average depth and the average weighted depth of decision trees are considered. Similar problems are studied in search theory [1], coding theory [77], design and analysis of algorithms (e.g., sorting) [38]. For any

  12. A Statistical Mechanics Approach to Approximate Analytical Bootstrap Averages

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Malzahn, Dorthe; Opper, Manfred

    2003-01-01

    We apply the replica method of Statistical Physics combined with a variational method to the approximate analytical computation of bootstrap averages for estimating the generalization error. We demonstrate our approach on regression with Gaussian processes and compare our results with averages...

  13. Anomalous behavior of q-averages in nonextensive statistical mechanics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abe, Sumiyoshi

    2009-01-01

    A generalized definition of average, termed the q-average, is widely employed in the field of nonextensive statistical mechanics. Recently, it has however been pointed out that such an average value may behave unphysically under specific deformations of probability distributions. Here, the following three issues are discussed and clarified. Firstly, the deformations considered are physical and may be realized experimentally. Secondly, in view of the thermostatistics, the q-average is unstable in both finite and infinite discrete systems. Thirdly, a naive generalization of the discussion to continuous systems misses a point, and a norm better than the L 1 -norm should be employed for measuring the distance between two probability distributions. Consequently, stability of the q-average is shown not to be established in all of the cases

  14. Bootstrapping pre-averaged realized volatility under market microstructure noise

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hounyo, Ulrich; Goncalves, Sílvia; Meddahi, Nour

    The main contribution of this paper is to propose a bootstrap method for inference on integrated volatility based on the pre-averaging approach of Jacod et al. (2009), where the pre-averaging is done over all possible overlapping blocks of consecutive observations. The overlapping nature of the pre......-averaged returns implies that these are kn-dependent with kn growing slowly with the sample size n. This motivates the application of a blockwise bootstrap method. We show that the "blocks of blocks" bootstrap method suggested by Politis and Romano (1992) (and further studied by Bühlmann and Künsch (1995......)) is valid only when volatility is constant. The failure of the blocks of blocks bootstrap is due to the heterogeneity of the squared pre-averaged returns when volatility is stochastic. To preserve both the dependence and the heterogeneity of squared pre-averaged returns, we propose a novel procedure...

  15. Bounds on Average Time Complexity of Decision Trees

    KAUST Repository

    Chikalov, Igor

    2011-01-01

    In this chapter, bounds on the average depth and the average weighted depth of decision trees are considered. Similar problems are studied in search theory [1], coding theory [77], design and analysis of algorithms (e.g., sorting) [38]. For any diagnostic problem, the minimum average depth of decision tree is bounded from below by the entropy of probability distribution (with a multiplier 1/log2 k for a problem over a k-valued information system). Among diagnostic problems, the problems with a complete set of attributes have the lowest minimum average depth of decision trees (e.g, the problem of building optimal prefix code [1] and a blood test study in assumption that exactly one patient is ill [23]). For such problems, the minimum average depth of decision tree exceeds the lower bound by at most one. The minimum average depth reaches the maximum on the problems in which each attribute is "indispensable" [44] (e.g., a diagnostic problem with n attributes and kn pairwise different rows in the decision table and the problem of implementing the modulo 2 summation function). These problems have the minimum average depth of decision tree equal to the number of attributes in the problem description. © Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2011.

  16. Lateral dispersion coefficients as functions of averaging time

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sheih, C.M.

    1980-01-01

    Plume dispersion coefficients are discussed in terms of single-particle and relative diffusion, and are investigated as functions of averaging time. To demonstrate the effects of averaging time on the relative importance of various dispersion processes, and observed lateral wind velocity spectrum is used to compute the lateral dispersion coefficients of total, single-particle and relative diffusion for various averaging times and plume travel times. The results indicate that for a 1 h averaging time the dispersion coefficient of a plume can be approximated by single-particle diffusion alone for travel times <250 s and by relative diffusion for longer travel times. Furthermore, it is shown that the power-law formula suggested by Turner for relating pollutant concentrations for other averaging times to the corresponding 15 min average is applicable to the present example only when the averaging time is less than 200 s and the tral time smaller than about 300 s. Since the turbulence spectrum used in the analysis is an observed one, it is hoped that the results could represent many conditions encountered in the atmosphere. However, as the results depend on the form of turbulence spectrum, the calculations are not for deriving a set of specific criteria but for demonstrating the need in discriminating various processes in studies of plume dispersion

  17. 40 CFR 80.205 - How is the annual refinery or importer average and corporate pool average sulfur level determined?

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... volume of gasoline produced or imported in batch i. Si=The sulfur content of batch i determined under § 80.330. n=The number of batches of gasoline produced or imported during the averaging period. i=Individual batch of gasoline produced or imported during the averaging period. (b) All annual refinery or...

  18. 40 CFR 600.510-12 - Calculation of average fuel economy and average carbon-related exhaust emissions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... and average carbon-related exhaust emissions. 600.510-12 Section 600.510-12 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) ENERGY POLICY FUEL ECONOMY AND CARBON-RELATED EXHAUST EMISSIONS OF... Transportation. (iv) [Reserved] (2) Average carbon-related exhaust emissions will be calculated to the nearest...

  19. Improved moving source photometry with TRIPPy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexandersen, Mike; Fraser, Wesley Cristopher

    2017-10-01

    Photometry of moving sources is more complicated than for stationary sources, because the sources trail their signal out over more pixels than a point source of the same magnitude. Using a circular aperture of same size as would be appropriate for point sources can cut out a large amount of flux if a moving source moves substantially relative to the size of the aperture during the exposure, resulting in underestimated fluxes. Using a large circular aperture can mitigate this issue at the cost of a significantly reduced signal to noise compared to a point source, as a result of the inclusion of a larger background region within the aperture.Trailed Image Photometry in Python (TRIPPy) solves this problem by using a pill-shaped aperture: the traditional circular aperture is sliced in half perpendicular to the direction of motion and separated by a rectangle as long as the total motion of the source during the exposure. TRIPPy can also calculate the appropriate aperture correction (which will depend both on the radius and trail length of the pill-shaped aperture), and has features for selecting good PSF stars, creating a PSF model (convolved moffat profile + lookup table) and selecting a custom sky-background area in order to ensure no other sources contribute to the background estimate.In this poster, we present an overview of the TRIPPy features and demonstrate the improvements resulting from using TRIPPy compared to photometry obtained by other methods with examples from real projects where TRIPPy has been implemented in order to obtain the best-possible photometric measurements of Solar System objects. While TRIPPy has currently mainly been used for Trans-Neptunian Objects, the improvement from using the pill-shaped aperture increases with source motion, making TRIPPy highly relevant for asteroid and centaur photometry as well.

  20. Average inactivity time model, associated orderings and reliability properties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kayid, M.; Izadkhah, S.; Abouammoh, A. M.

    2018-02-01

    In this paper, we introduce and study a new model called 'average inactivity time model'. This new model is specifically applicable to handle the heterogeneity of the time of the failure of a system in which some inactive items exist. We provide some bounds for the mean average inactivity time of a lifespan unit. In addition, we discuss some dependence structures between the average variable and the mixing variable in the model when original random variable possesses some aging behaviors. Based on the conception of the new model, we introduce and study a new stochastic order. Finally, to illustrate the concept of the model, some interesting reliability problems are reserved.

  1. Average L-shell fluorescence, Auger, and electron yields

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krause, M.O.

    1980-01-01

    The dependence of the average L-shell fluorescence and Auger yields on the initial vacancy distribution is shown to be small. By contrast, the average electron yield pertaining to both Auger and Coster-Kronig transitions is shown to display a strong dependence. Numerical examples are given on the basis of Krause's evaluation of subshell radiative and radiationless yields. Average yields are calculated for widely differing vacancy distributions and are intercompared graphically for 40 3 subshell yields in most cases of inner-shell ionization

  2. Simultaneous inference for model averaging of derived parameters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Signe Marie; Ritz, Christian

    2015-01-01

    Model averaging is a useful approach for capturing uncertainty due to model selection. Currently, this uncertainty is often quantified by means of approximations that do not easily extend to simultaneous inference. Moreover, in practice there is a need for both model averaging and simultaneous...... inference for derived parameters calculated in an after-fitting step. We propose a method for obtaining asymptotically correct standard errors for one or several model-averaged estimates of derived parameters and for obtaining simultaneous confidence intervals that asymptotically control the family...

  3. Salecker-Wigner-Peres clock and average tunneling times

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lunardi, Jose T.; Manzoni, Luiz A.; Nystrom, Andrew T.

    2011-01-01

    The quantum clock of Salecker-Wigner-Peres is used, by performing a post-selection of the final state, to obtain average transmission and reflection times associated to the scattering of localized wave packets by static potentials in one dimension. The behavior of these average times is studied for a Gaussian wave packet, centered around a tunneling wave number, incident on a rectangular barrier and, in particular, on a double delta barrier potential. The regime of opaque barriers is investigated and the results show that the average transmission time does not saturate, showing no evidence of the Hartman effect (or its generalized version).

  4. Time average vibration fringe analysis using Hilbert transformation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kumar, Upputuri Paul; Mohan, Nandigana Krishna; Kothiyal, Mahendra Prasad

    2010-01-01

    Quantitative phase information from a single interferogram can be obtained using the Hilbert transform (HT). We have applied the HT method for quantitative evaluation of Bessel fringes obtained in time average TV holography. The method requires only one fringe pattern for the extraction of vibration amplitude and reduces the complexity in quantifying the data experienced in the time average reference bias modulation method, which uses multiple fringe frames. The technique is demonstrated for the measurement of out-of-plane vibration amplitude on a small scale specimen using a time average microscopic TV holography system.

  5. Average multiplications in deep inelastic processes and their interpretation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kiselev, A.V.; Petrov, V.A.

    1983-01-01

    Inclusive production of hadrons in deep inelastic proceseseus is considered. It is shown that at high energies the jet evolution in deep inelastic processes is mainly of nonperturbative character. With the increase of a final hadron state energy the leading contribution to an average multiplicity comes from a parton subprocess due to production of massive quark and gluon jets and their further fragmentation as diquark contribution becomes less and less essential. The ratio of the total average multiplicity in deep inelastic processes to the average multiplicity in e + e - -annihilation at high energies tends to unity

  6. Fitting a function to time-dependent ensemble averaged data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fogelmark, Karl; Lomholt, Michael A.; Irbäck, Anders

    2018-01-01

    Time-dependent ensemble averages, i.e., trajectory-based averages of some observable, are of importance in many fields of science. A crucial objective when interpreting such data is to fit these averages (for instance, squared displacements) with a function and extract parameters (such as diffusion...... method, weighted least squares including correlation in error estimation (WLS-ICE), to particle tracking data. The WLS-ICE method is applicable to arbitrary fit functions, and we provide a publically available WLS-ICE software....

  7. Average wind statistics for SRP area meteorological towers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Laurinat, J.E.

    1987-01-01

    A quality assured set of average wind Statistics for the seven SRP area meteorological towers has been calculated for the five-year period 1982--1986 at the request of DOE/SR. A Similar set of statistics was previously compiled for the years 1975-- 1979. The updated wind statistics will replace the old statistics as the meteorological input for calculating atmospheric radionuclide doses from stack releases, and will be used in the annual environmental report. This report details the methods used to average the wind statistics and to screen out bad measurements and presents wind roses generated by the averaged statistics

  8. The body talks, moves and acquires identity

    OpenAIRE

    Nina Calero; Adelaida Carreño

    2014-01-01

    The body is the main communication tool in the child, gesture and posture of those around you let you understand their environment; from birth the child begins a process of self-recognition to be strengthened in different social spheres from personal experiences, as the emission of sounds with your body, body language and play a fundamental part of your child’s condition.For the child to move in the surrounding medium is what is the most important, as this experience allows the child not only...

  9. Painful legs and moving toes syndrome

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qiu-ying Ma

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Painful legs and moving toes syndrome (PLMT is a rare movement disorder with low diagnostic rate, which is characterized by lower limb pain with involuntary movements of feet or toes. Etiology and pathogenesis of this disease is still unclear. Patients have different clinical manifestations, so the diagnosis is difficult. Treatment methods for PLMT are numerous, but so far the treatment of this disease is still a major challenge for clinicians. Further research is still needed to guide clinical work. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1672-6731.2015.10.013

  10. On signaling games with quantum chance move

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frackiewicz, Piotr

    2015-01-01

    We give formal conditions for a perfect Bayesian-type equilibrium in a quantum signaling game. We show that the conditions imply a classical perfect Bayesian equilibrium if the quantum game coincides with the classical one. Next, we extend the signaling game to include a quantum chance move. We prove that the classical relation between Nash equilibria and perfect Bayesian equilibria is preserved in that case—every perfect Bayesian-type equilibrium implies a Nash equilibrium, but the converse is not true. Lastly, we give a condition for equivalence between Nash equilibria and perfect Bayesian-type equilibria. (paper)

  11. Indexing of Network-Constrained Moving Objects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pfoser, Dieter; Jensen, Christian Søndergaard

    2003-01-01

    With the proliferation of mobile computing, the ability to index efficiently the movements of mobile objects becomes important. Objects are typically seen as moving in two-dimensional (x,y) space, which means that their movements across time may be embedded in the three-dimensional (x,y,t) space....... Further, the movements are typically represented as trajectories, sequences of connected line segments. In certain cases, movement is restricted, and specifically in this paper, we aim at exploiting that movements occur in transportation networks to reduce the dimensionality of the data. Briefly, the idea...

  12. Tests to Help Plan Opportunity Moves

    Science.gov (United States)

    2005-01-01

    Rover engineers check how a test rover moves in material chosen to simulate some difficult Mars driving conditions. The scene is inside the In-Situ Instrument Laboratory at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, Calif. These tests in early May 2005 were designed to help plan the best way for the rover Opportunity to drive off of a soft-sand dune that the rover dug itself into the previous week. The mixture of sandy and powdery material brought in for these specific tests matched the way the soil underneath Opportunity caked onto wheels, filling the spaces between the cleats on the wheels.

  13. Compressor Has No Moving Macroscopic Parts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gasser, Max

    1995-01-01

    Compressor containing no moving macroscopic parts functions by alternating piston and valve actions of successive beds of magnetic particles. Fabricated easily because no need for precisely fitting parts rotating or sliding on each other. Also no need for lubricant fluid contaminating fluid to be compressed. Compressor operates continuously, eliminating troublesome on/off cycling of other compressors, and decreasing consumption of energy. Phased cells push fluid from bottom to top, adding increments of pressure. Each cell contains magnetic powder particles loose when electromagnet coil deenergized, but tightly packed when coil energized.

  14. Computing proton dose to irregularly moving targets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Phillips, Justin; Gueorguiev, Gueorgui; Grassberger, Clemens; Dowdell, Stephen; Paganetti, Harald; Sharp, Gregory C; Shackleford, James A

    2014-01-01

    Purpose: While four-dimensional computed tomography (4DCT) and deformable registration can be used to assess the dose delivered to regularly moving targets, there are few methods available for irregularly moving targets. 4DCT captures an idealized waveform, but human respiration during treatment is characterized by gradual baseline shifts and other deviations from a periodic signal. This paper describes a method for computing the dose delivered to irregularly moving targets based on 1D or 3D waveforms captured at the time of delivery. Methods: The procedure uses CT or 4DCT images for dose calculation, and 1D or 3D respiratory waveforms of the target position at time of delivery. Dose volumes are converted from their Cartesian geometry into a beam-specific radiological depth space, parameterized in 2D by the beam aperture, and longitudinally by the radiological depth. In this new frame of reference, the proton doses are translated according to the motion found in the 1D or 3D trajectory. These translated dose volumes are weighted and summed, then transformed back into Cartesian space, yielding an estimate of the dose that includes the effect of the measured breathing motion. The method was validated using a synthetic lung phantom and a single representative patient CT. Simulated 4DCT was generated for the phantom with 2 cm peak-to-peak motion. Results: A passively-scattered proton treatment plan was generated using 6 mm and 5 mm smearing for the phantom and patient plans, respectively. The method was tested without motion, and with two simulated breathing signals: a 2 cm amplitude sinusoid, and a 2 cm amplitude sinusoid with 3 cm linear drift in the phantom. The tumor positions were equally weighted for the patient calculation. Motion-corrected dose was computed based on the mid-ventilation CT image in the phantom and the peak exhale position in the patient. Gamma evaluation was 97.8% without motion, 95.7% for 2 cm sinusoidal motion, 95.7% with 3 cm drift in

  15. Computational cameras for moving iris recognition

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCloskey, Scott; Venkatesha, Sharath

    2015-05-01

    Iris-based biometric identification is increasingly used for facility access and other security applications. Like all methods that exploit visual information, however, iris systems are limited by the quality of captured images. Optical defocus due to a small depth of field (DOF) is one such challenge, as is the acquisition of sharply-focused iris images from subjects in motion. This manuscript describes the application of computational motion-deblurring cameras to the problem of moving iris capture, from the underlying theory to system considerations and performance data.

  16. Shadowfax: Moving mesh hydrodynamical integration code

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vandenbroucke, Bert

    2016-05-01

    Shadowfax simulates galaxy evolution. Written in object-oriented modular C++, it evolves a mixture of gas, subject to the laws of hydrodynamics and gravity, and any collisionless fluid only subject to gravity, such as cold dark matter or stars. For the hydrodynamical integration, it makes use of a (co-) moving Lagrangian mesh. The code has a 2D and 3D version, contains utility programs to generate initial conditions and visualize simulation snapshots, and its input/output is compatible with a number of other simulation codes, e.g. Gadget2 (ascl:0003.001) and GIZMO (ascl:1410.003).

  17. SAR Ground Moving Target Indication Based on Relative Residue of DPCA Processing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jia Xu

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available For modern synthetic aperture radar (SAR, it has much more urgent demands on ground moving target indication (GMTI, which includes not only the point moving targets like cars, truck or tanks but also the distributed moving targets like river or ocean surfaces. Among the existing GMTI methods, displaced phase center antenna (DPCA can effectively cancel the strong ground clutter and has been widely used. However, its detection performance is closely related to the target’s signal-to-clutter ratio (SCR as well as radial velocity, and it cannot effectively detect the weak large-sized river surfaces in strong ground clutter due to their low SCR caused by specular scattering. This paper proposes a novel method called relative residue of DPCA (RR-DPCA, which jointly utilizes the DPCA cancellation outputs and the multi-look images to improve the detection performance of weak river surfaces. Furthermore, based on the statistics analysis of the RR-DPCA outputs on the homogenous background, the cell average (CA method can be well applied for subsequent constant false alarm rate (CFAR detection. The proposed RR-DPCA method can well detect the point moving targets and distributed moving targets simultaneously. Finally, the results of both simulated and real data are provided to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed SAR/GMTI method.

  18. The Spin Move: A Reliable and Cost-Effective Gowning Technique for the 21st Century.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ochiai, Derek H; Adib, Farshad

    2015-04-01

    Operating room efficiency (ORE) and utilization are considered one of the most crucial components of quality improvement in every hospital. We introduced a new gowning technique that could optimize ORE. The Spin Move quickly and efficiently wraps a surgical gown around the surgeon's body. This saves the operative time expended through the traditional gowning techniques. In the Spin Move, while the surgeon is approaching the scrub nurse, he or she uses the left heel as the fulcrum. The torque, which is generated by twisting the right leg around the left leg, helps the surgeon to close the gown as quickly and safely as possible. From 2003 to 2012, the Spin Move was performed in 1,725 consecutive procedures with no complication. The estimated average time was 5.3 and 7.8 seconds for the Spin Move and traditional gowning, respectively. The estimated time saving for the senior author during this period was 71.875 minutes. Approximately 20,000 orthopaedic surgeons practice in the United States. If this technique had been used, 23,958 hours could have been saved. The money saving could have been $14,374,800.00 (23,958 hours × $600/operating room hour) during the past 10 years. The Spin Move is easy to perform and reproducible. It saves operating room time and increases ORE.

  19. Research on measurement method of optical camouflage effect of moving object

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Juntang; Xu, Weidong; Qu, Yang; Cui, Guangzhen

    2016-10-01

    Camouflage effectiveness measurement as an important part of the camouflage technology, which testing and measuring the camouflage effect of the target and the performance of the camouflage equipment according to the tactical and technical requirements. The camouflage effectiveness measurement of current optical band is mainly aimed at the static target which could not objectively reflect the dynamic camouflage effect of the moving target. This paper synthetical used technology of dynamic object detection and camouflage effect detection, the digital camouflage of the moving object as the research object, the adaptive background update algorithm of Surendra was improved, a method of optical camouflage effect detection using Lab-color space in the detection of moving-object was presented. The binary image of moving object is extracted by this measurement technology, in the sequence diagram, the characteristic parameters such as the degree of dispersion, eccentricity, complexity and moment invariants are constructed to construct the feature vector space. The Euclidean distance of moving target which through digital camouflage was calculated, the results show that the average Euclidean distance of 375 frames was 189.45, which indicated that the degree of dispersion, eccentricity, complexity and moment invariants of the digital camouflage graphics has a great difference with the moving target which not spray digital camouflage. The measurement results showed that the camouflage effect was good. Meanwhile with the performance evaluation module, the correlation coefficient of the dynamic target image range 0.1275 from 0.0035, and presented some ups and down. Under the dynamic condition, the adaptability of target and background was reflected. In view of the existing infrared camouflage technology, the next step, we want to carry out the camouflage effect measurement technology of the moving target based on infrared band.

  20. Average monthly and annual climate maps for Bolivia

    KAUST Repository

    Vicente-Serrano, Sergio M.

    2015-02-24

    This study presents monthly and annual climate maps for relevant hydroclimatic variables in Bolivia. We used the most complete network of precipitation and temperature stations available in Bolivia, which passed a careful quality control and temporal homogenization procedure. Monthly average maps at the spatial resolution of 1 km were modeled by means of a regression-based approach using topographic and geographic variables as predictors. The monthly average maximum and minimum temperatures, precipitation and potential exoatmospheric solar radiation under clear sky conditions are used to estimate the monthly average atmospheric evaporative demand by means of the Hargreaves model. Finally, the average water balance is estimated on a monthly and annual scale for each 1 km cell by means of the difference between precipitation and atmospheric evaporative demand. The digital layers used to create the maps are available in the digital repository of the Spanish National Research Council.