WorldWideScience

Sample records for mouth disease epidemic

  1. Impact of clinical surveillance during a foot-and-mouth disease epidemic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hisham Beshara Halasa, Tariq; Boklund, Anette

    duration, number of infected herds and the economic losses from an epidemic. The stochastic spatial simulation model DTU-DADS was enhanced to include simulation of surveillance of herds within the protection and surveillance zones and the model was used to model spread of FMD between herds. A queuing......The objectives of this study were to assess, whether the current surveillance capacity is sufficient to fulfill EU and Danish regulations to control a hypothetical foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) epidemic in Denmark, and whether enlarging the protection and/or surveillance zones could reduce epidemic...... showed that the default surveillance capacity is sufficient to survey herds within one week of the zones establishment, as the regulations demand. Extra resources for surveillance did not reduce the costs of the epidemics, but fewer resources could result in larger epidemics and costs. Furthermore...

  2. Serosurveillance of wild deer and wild boar after the epidemic of foot-and-mouth disease in the Netherlands in 2001

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Elbers, A.R.W.; Dekker, A.; Dekkers, L.J.M.

    2003-01-01

    Blood samples from 140 wild deer and 208 wild boar shot in the aftermath of the epidemic of foot-and-mouth disease in the Netherlands in 2001 were examined for antibodies to foot-and-mouth disease virus. They were all negative

  3. Topographic determinants of foot and mouth disease transmission in the UK 2001 epidemic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Keeling Matthew J

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background A key challenge for modelling infectious disease dynamics is to understand the spatial spread of infection in real landscapes. This ideally requires a parallel record of spatial epidemic spread and a detailed map of susceptible host density along with relevant transport links and geographical features. Results Here we analyse the most detailed such data to date arising from the UK 2001 foot and mouth epidemic. We show that Euclidean distance between infectious and susceptible premises is a better predictor of transmission risk than shortest and quickest routes via road, except where major geographical features intervene. Conclusion Thus, a simple spatial transmission kernel based on Euclidean distance suffices in most regions, probably reflecting the multiplicity of transmission routes during the epidemic.

  4. Estimating risk factors for farm-level transmission of disease: Foot and mouth disease during the 2001 epidemic in Great Britain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul R. Bessell

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Controlling an epidemic would be aided by establishing whether particular individuals in infected populations are more likely to transmit infection. However, few analyses have characterised such individuals. Such analyses require both data on who infected whom and on the likely determinants of transmission; data that are available at the farm level for the 2001 Foot and Mouth Disease epidemic in Great Britain. Using these data a putative number of daughter infected premises (IPs resulting from each IP was calculated where these daughters were within 3 km of the IP. A set of possible epidemiological, demographic, spatial and temporal risk factors were analysed, with the final multivariate generalised linear model (Poisson error term having 6 statistically significant (p<0.05 main effects including geographic area, local cattle and sheep densities, and the number of non-IP culls. This model demonstrates that farms are heterogeneous in their propensity to transmit infection to other farms and, importantly, that it may be possible to identify holdings that are at high risk of spreading disease a priori. Such information could be used to help prioritise the response to an epidemic. Keywords: Foot and mouth disease, Epidemiology, Risk modelling, Livestock, Disease control

  5. Analysis of the epidemiological dynamics during the 1982-1983 epidemic of foot-and-mouth disease in Denmark based on molecular high-resolution strain identification

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Laurids Siig; Normann, Preben; Thykier-Nielsen, Søren

    2005-01-01

    An epidemic of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) causing a total of 23 cases in 1982-1983, primarily on the island of Funen, Denmark, was subjected to molecular epidemiological investigations. In an attempt to exploit the quasi-species nature of foot-and-mouth disease virus strains for molecular high......-resolution strain identification in order to analyse the dynamics of this epidemic, full-length VP1 coding regions were sequenced for 17 isolates collected at different farms during the epidemic. The sequence information together with epidemiological information gathered during the epidemic suggests......, and the prerequisite of co- or superinfection of animals with variant strains in turn implies that they have a common source or epidemiologically related sources originating from an area with endemic FMD....

  6. Re-assessing the likelihood of airborne spread of foot-and-mouth disease at the start of the 1967-1968 UK foot-and-mouth disease epidemic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gloster, J.; Freshwater, A.; Sellers, R.F.

    2005-01-01

    The likelihood of airborne spread of foot-and-mouth disease at the start of the 1967-1968 epidemic is re-assessed in the light of current understanding of airborne disease spread. The findings strongly confirm those made at the time that airborne virus was the most likely cause of the rapid early...... development of the disease out to 60 km from the source. This conclusion is reached following a detailed epidemiological, meteorological and modelling study using original records and current modelling techniques. The role played by 'lee waves' as the mechanism for the spread is investigated. It is thought...... that they played little part in influencing the development of the epidemic. A number of lessons learned from the work are drawn, identifying the need for further research on the quantity and characteristics I of airborne virus. The results are also used to illustrate what advice would have been available...

  7. Using a Negative Binomial Regression Model for Early Warning at the Start of a Hand Foot Mouth Disease Epidemic in Dalian, Liaoning Province, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    An, Qingyu; Wu, Jun; Fan, Xuesong; Pan, Liyang; Sun, Wei

    2016-01-01

    The hand foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is a human syndrome caused by intestinal viruses like that coxsackie A virus 16, enterovirus 71 and easily developed into outbreak in kindergarten and school. Scientifically and accurately early detection of the start time of HFMD epidemic is a key principle in planning of control measures and minimizing the impact of HFMD. The objective of this study was to establish a reliable early detection model for start timing of hand foot mouth disease epidemic in Dalian and to evaluate the performance of model by analyzing the sensitivity in detectability. The negative binomial regression model was used to estimate the weekly baseline case number of HFMD and identified the optimal alerting threshold between tested difference threshold values during the epidemic and non-epidemic year. Circular distribution method was used to calculate the gold standard of start timing of HFMD epidemic. From 2009 to 2014, a total of 62022 HFMD cases were reported (36879 males and 25143 females) in Dalian, Liaoning Province, China, including 15 fatal cases. The median age of the patients was 3 years. The incidence rate of epidemic year ranged from 137.54 per 100,000 population to 231.44 per 100,000population, the incidence rate of non-epidemic year was lower than 112 per 100,000 population. The negative binomial regression model with AIC value 147.28 was finally selected to construct the baseline level. The threshold value was 100 for the epidemic year and 50 for the non- epidemic year had the highest sensitivity(100%) both in retrospective and prospective early warning and the detection time-consuming was 2 weeks before the actual starting of HFMD epidemic. The negative binomial regression model could early warning the start of a HFMD epidemic with good sensitivity and appropriate detection time in Dalian.

  8. The Impact of Resources for Clinical Surveillance on the Control of a Hypothetical Foot-and-Mouth Disease Epidemic in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hisham Beshara Halasa, Tariq; Boklund, Anette

    2014-01-01

    The objectives of this study were to assess whether current surveillance capacity is sufficient to fulfill EU and Danish regulations to control a hypothetical foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) epidemic in Denmark, and whether enlarging the protection and/or surveillance zones could minimize economic...... losses. The stochastic spatial simulation model DTU-DADS was further developed to simulate clinical surveillance of herds within the protection and surveillance zones and used to model spread of FMD between herds. A queuing system was included in the model, and based on daily surveillance capacity, which...... resources for surveillance did not improve the situation, but fewer resources could result in larger epidemics and costs. Enlarging the protection zone was a better strategy than the basic scenario. Despite that enlarging the surveillance zone might result in shorter epidemic duration, and lower number...

  9. Investigation of airborne foot-and-mouth disease virus transmission during low-wind conditions in the early phase of the UK 2001 epidemic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mikkelsen, T.; Alexandersen, S.; Astrup, P.

    2003-01-01

    animals. Such spread can be rapid and extensive, and it is known in certain circumstances to have transmitted disease over a distance of several hundred kilometres. During the 2001 FMD epidemic in the United Kingdom (UK), atmospheric dispersion models were applied in real time in order to assess......Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious viral disease of cloven-hoofed domesticated and wild animals. The highly contagious nature of FMD is a reflection of the wide range of host species, the enormous quantities of virus liberated by infected animals, the range of excretions...

  10. Genome variability of foot-and-mouth disease virus during the short period of the 2010 epidemic in Japan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nishi, Tatsuya; Yamada, Manabu; Fukai, Katsuhiko; Shimada, Nobuaki; Morioka, Kazuki; Yoshida, Kazuo; Sakamoto, Kenichi; Kanno, Toru; Yamakawa, Makoto

    2017-02-01

    Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) is highly contagious and has a high mutation rate, leading to extensive genetic variation. To investigate how FMDV genetically evolves over a short period of an epidemic after initial introduction into an FMD-free area, whole L-fragment sequences of 104 FMDVs isolated from the 2010 epidemic in Japan, which continued for less than three months were determined and phylogenetically and comparatively analyzed. Phylogenetic analysis of whole L-fragment sequences showed that these isolates were classified into a single group, indicating that FMDV was introduced into Japan in the epidemic via a single introduction. Nucleotide sequences of 104 virus isolates showed more than 99.56% pairwise identity rates without any genetic deletion or insertion, although no sequences were completely identical with each other. These results indicate that genetic substitutions of FMDV occurred gradually and constantly during the epidemic and generation of an extensive mutant virus could have been prevented by rapid eradication strategy. From comparative analysis of variability of each FMDV protein coding region, VP4 and 2C regions showed the highest average identity rates and invariant rates, and were confirmed as highly conserved. In contrast, the protein coding regions VP2 and VP1 were confirmed to be highly variable regions with the lowest average identity rates and invariant rates, respectively. Our data demonstrate the importance of rapid eradication strategy in an FMD epidemic and provide valuable information on the genome variability of FMDV during the short period of an epidemic. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. Decisions on foot-and-mouth disease control informed by model prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hisham Beshara Halasa, Tariq; Willeberg, Preben; Christiansen, Lasse Engbo

    2013-01-01

    of affected herds, epidemic duration, geographical size, and costs. The first fourteen days spatial spread (FFS) was also included to support the prediction. The epidemic data were obtained from a Danish version (DTU-DADS) of the Davis Animal Disease Spread simulation model. The FFI and FFS showed good......The predictive capability of the first fortnight incidence (FFI), which is the number of detected herds within the first 14 days following detection of the disease, of the course of a foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) epidemic and its outcomes were investigated. Epidemic outcomes included the number...... correlations with the epidemic outcomes. The predictive capability of the FFI was high. This indicates that the FFI may take a part in the decision of whether or not to boost FMD control, which might prevent occurrence of a large epidemic in the face of an FMD incursion. The prediction power was improved...

  12. Simulation of the influence of Danish cattle markets on a Foot-and-Mouth epidemic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Boklund, Anette; Lastein, D. B.; Hisham Beshara Halasa, Tariq

    During the epidemic of Foot-and-Mouth disease (FMD) in the United Kingdom in 2001, live animal markets had large influence on the spread of the disease. The culture of and behavior around markets are expected to be different between countries. During the last decade, the number of animals traded...... through markets in Denmark has decreased and only few cattle markets are left. The purpose of this study was to investigate, whether cattle markets would influence the duration, size and economic consequences of a potential FMD epidemic in Denmark. The spread of FMD was simulated using the stochastic...... included a larger area compared to scenarios without markets. Economic results will be described in the final paper. Markets can influence spread of other diseases as well. Little is known about the influence of markets on spread of other diseases. Even though FMD is more contagious than many other...

  13. Foot-and-mouth disease in British deer: transmission of virus to cattle, sheep and deer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gibbs, E P; Herniman, K A; Lawman, M J; Sellers, R F

    1975-06-28

    After exposure for two hours to cattle with foot-and-mouth disease, each of the five species of deer found in the British countryside became infected. Clinical disease was typical and severe in the roe and muntjac deer, with some animals dying, less severe in the sika deer and usually subclinical in the fallow and red deer. Each species transmitted disease to its own species and to cattle and sheep. The amounts of virus present in the blood, and in oesophageal/pharyngeal samples and excreted as an aerosol during the course of the infection in the deer were similar to those recorded for the sheep and cattle in the same experiment. The fallow and sika deer commonly carried virus in the pharynx beyond 28 days after exposure; some red deer also became carriers. In epidemics of foot-and-mouth disease in the UK, it is likely that deer would have such intimate contact with farm animals as occurred in this study. The natural behavior of free-living deer in the UK suggests that, although the five species are susceptible to foot-and-mouth disease, they are unlikely to be an important factor in the maintenance and transmission of the virus during an epidemic of foot-and-mouth disease in domestic livestock.

  14. Decisions on control of foot-and-mouth disease informed using model predictions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hisham Beshara Halasa, Tariq; Willeberg, P.; Christiansen, Lasse Engbo

    2013-01-01

    , epidemic duration, geographical size and costs. The first 14 days spatial spread (FFS) was also included to further support the prediction. The epidemic data was obtained from a Danish version (DTU-DADS) of a pre-existing FMD simulation model (Davis Animal Disease Spread – DADS) adapted to model the spread......The decision on whether or not to change the control strategy, such as introducing emergency vaccination, is perhaps one of the most difficult decisions faced by the veterinary authorities during a foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) epidemic. A simple tool that may predict the epidemic outcome...... and consequences would be useful to assist the veterinary authorities in the decision-making process. A previously proposed simple quantitative tool based on the first 14 days outbreaks (FFO) of FMD was used with results from an FMD simulation exercise. Epidemic outcomes included the number of affected herds...

  15. Foot-and-mouth disease

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Belsham, Graham; Charleston, Bryan; Jackson, Terry

    2009-01-01

    Foot-and-mouth disease is an economically important, highly contagious, disease of cloven-hoofed animals characterized by the appearance of vesicles (blisters) on the feet and in and around the mouth. The causative agent, foot-and-mouth disease virus, was the first mammalian virus to be discovered...

  16. Foot-and-Mouth Disease

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Belsham, Graham; Charleston, Bryan; Jackson, Terry

    2015-01-01

    Foot‐and‐mouth disease (FMD) is an economically important, highly contagious disease of cloven‐hoofed animals characterised by the appearance of vesicles (blisters) on the feet and in, and around, the mouth. The causative agent, foot‐and‐mouth disease virus (FMDV), was the first mammalian virus...

  17. Economics of eradicating Foot-and-Mouth disease epidemics with alternative control strategies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bergevoet, R.H.M.; Asseldonk, van M.A.P.M.

    2014-01-01

    The paper presents an economic analysis of Foot-and-Mouth Disease (FMD) control strategies for livestock herds. Alternative vaccination-to-live control strategies were compared to the strategy that involves culling of all susceptible animals in an area of 1 km around infected herds in addition to

  18. Post-traumatic stress disorder in participants of foot-and-mouth disease epidemic control in Miyazaki, Japan, in 2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hibi, Juri; Kurosawa, Aiko; Watanabe, Takuto; Kadowaki, Hazumu; Watari, Michiko; Makita, Kohei

    2015-08-01

    Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) occurred in Miyazaki, Japan, in 2010, and 290,000 animals were culled. This paper describes the mental distress of the volunteers who had been dispatched to Miyazaki for disease control two years after the epidemic. It also assesses risk factors for post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). A participatory appraisal and self-administered questionnaire survey were conducted in 2012 for those who were dispatched to Miyazaki in 2010. The Impact of Event Scale-Revised (IES-R) was used as an indicator of PTSD, and univariate and multivariable analyses were performed. Of the 875 respondents, 1.3% had higher IES-R scores than the cut-off point (25), which is suggestive of PTSD. Mental stresses during and soon after FMD control and after two years were described. Four risk factors associated with high IES-R scores were found: transporting culled animals (Pstress during FMD control (Pstress at the time of the survey (Pstress two years later. Public services should provide an opportunity for them to consult with mental health specialists. These findings should be used to better prepare workers who deal with infectious diseases of animals, especially when they must be culled. The establishment of a collaborative framework between veterinary and mental health services is recommended.

  19. Investigation of airborne foot-and-mouth disease virus transmission during low-wind conditions in the early phase of the UK 2001 epidemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mikkelsen, T.; Alexandersen, S.; Astrup, P.; Champion, H. J.; Donaldson, A. I.; Dunkerley, F. N.; Gloster, J.; Sørensen, J. H.; Thykier-Nielsen, S.

    2003-11-01

    Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious viral disease of cloven-hoofed domesticated and wild animals. The highly contagious nature of FMD is a reflection of the wide range of host species, the enormous quantities of virus liberated by infected animals, the range of excretions and secretions which can be infectious, the stability of the virus in the environment, the multiplicity of routes of infection and the very small doses of the virus that can initiate infection. One of the mechanisms of spread is the carriage of droplets and droplet nuclei exhaled in the breath of infected animals. Such spread can be rapid and extensive, and it is known in certain circumstances to have transmitted disease over a distance of several hundred kilometres. During the 2001 FMD epidemic in the United Kingdom (UK), atmospheric dispersion models were applied in real time in order to assess the potential for atmospheric dispersion of the disease. The operational value of such modelling is primarily to identify premises which may have been exposed so that the human resources for surveillance and disease control purposes are employed most effectively. The paper describes the combined modelling techniques and presents the results obtained of detailed analyses performed during the early stages of the UK 2001 epidemic. This paper investigates the potential for disease spread in relation to two outbreaks (Burnside Farm, Heddon-on-the-Wall and Prestwick Hall Farm, Ponteland, Northumberland). A separate paper (Gloster et al., 2002) provides a more detailed analysis of the airborne disease transmission in the vicinity of Burnside Farm. The combined results are consistent with airborne transmission of disease to livestock in the Heddon-on-the-Wall area. Local topography may have played a significant role in influencing the pattern of disease spread.

  20. Word-of-mouth dynamics with information seeking: Information is not (only) epidemics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thiriot, Samuel

    2018-02-01

    Word-of-mouth is known to determine the success or failure of innovations (Rogers, 2003) and facilitate the diffusion of products (Katz and Lazarsfeld, 1955). Word-of-mouth is made of both individuals seeking out information and/or pro-actively spreading information (Gilly et al., 1998; Rogers, 2003). Information seeking is considered as a step mandatory for individuals to retrieve the expert knowledge necessary for them to understand the benefits of an innovation or decide to buy a product (Arndt, 1967; Rogers, 2003). Yet the role of information seeking in the word-of-mouth dynamics was not investigated in computational models. Here we study in which conditions word-of-mouth enables the population to retrieve the initial expertise scattered in the population. We design a computational model in which awareness and expert knowledge are both represented, and study the joint dynamics of information seeking and proactive transmission of information. Simulation experiments highlight the apparition of cascades of awareness, cascades of expertise and chains of information retrieval. We find that different strategies should be used depending on the initial proportion of expertise (disruptive innovations, incremental innovations or products belonging to well-known categories). Surprisingly, when there is too much expertise in the population prior the advertisement campaign, word-of-mouth is less efficient in the retrieval of this expertise than when less expertise is initially present. Our results suggest that information seeking plays a key role in the dynamics of word-of-mouth, which can therefore not be reduced solely to the epidemic aspect.

  1. Insights into Cleavage Specificity from the Crystal Structure of Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus 3C Protease Complexed with a Peptide Substrate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zunszain, Patricia A; Knox, Stephen R; Sweeney, Trevor R

    2010-01-01

    Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a serious, widespread viral disease of cloven-hoofed animals, including important agricultural species such as cattle, sheep, pigs and goats (19, 45). The virus spreads rapidly and, although endemic and epidemic situations can be controlled using vaccines...

  2. Cyclical Patterns of Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease Caused by Enterovirus A71 in Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    NikNadia, NMN; Sam, I-Ching; Rampal, Sanjay; WanNorAmalina, WMZ; NurAtifah, Ghazali; Verasahib, Khebir; Ong, Chia Ching; MohdAdib, MohdAidinniza; Chan, Yoke Fun

    2016-01-01

    Enterovirus A71 (EV-A71) is an important emerging pathogen causing large epidemics of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in children. In Malaysia, since the first EV-A71 epidemic in 1997, recurrent cyclical epidemics have occurred every 2–3 years for reasons that remain unclear. We hypothesize that this cyclical pattern is due to changes in population immunity in children (measured as seroprevalence). Neutralizing antibody titers against EV-A71 were measured in 2,141 residual serum samples collected from children ≤12 years old between 1995 and 2012 to determine the seroprevalence of EV-A71. Reported national HFMD incidence was highest in children Malaysia is mainly due to the fall of population immunity accompanying the accumulation of susceptible children between epidemics. This study will impact the future planning, timing and target populations for vaccine programs. PMID:27010319

  3. A Comparison between Two Simulation Models for Spread of Foot-and-Mouth Disease

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hisham Beshara Halasa, Tariq; Boklund, Anette; Stockmarr, Anders

    2014-01-01

    Two widely used simulation models of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) were used in order to compare the models' predictions in term of disease spread, consequence, and the ranking of the applied control strategies, and to discuss the effect of the way disease spread is modeled on the predicted outcomes...... of each model. The DTU-DADS (version 0.100), and ISP (version 2.001.11) were used to simulate a hypothetical spread of FMD in Denmark. Actual herd type, movements, and location data in the period 1st October 2006 and 30th September 2007 was used. The models simulated the spread of FMD using 3 different...... areas and 1,000 in low density swine areas, and 1,000 sheep herds. Generally, DTU-DADS predicted larger, longer duration and costlier epidemics than ISP, except when epidemics started in cattle herds located in high density cattle areas. ISP supported suppressive vaccination rather than pre...

  4. Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    Hand, foot, and mouth disease is a contagious illness that mainly affects children under five. In this podcast, Dr. Eileen Schneider talks about the symptoms of hand, foot, and mouth disease, how it spreads, and ways to help protect yourself and your children from getting infected with the virus.

  5. Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2013-08-08

    Hand, foot, and mouth disease is a contagious illness that mainly affects children under five. In this podcast, Dr. Eileen Schneider talks about the symptoms of hand, foot, and mouth disease, how it spreads, and ways to help protect yourself and your children from getting infected with the virus.  Created: 8/8/2013 by National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases (NCIRD).   Date Released: 8/8/2013.

  6. Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease in China: Modeling Epidemic Dynamics of Enterovirus Serotypes and Implications for Vaccination.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saki Takahashi

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD is a common childhood illness caused by serotypes of the Enterovirus A species in the genus Enterovirus of the Picornaviridae family. The disease has had a substantial burden throughout East and Southeast Asia over the past 15 y. China reported 9 million cases of HFMD between 2008 and 2013, with the two serotypes Enterovirus A71 (EV-A71 and Coxsackievirus A16 (CV-A16 being responsible for the majority of these cases. Three recent phase 3 clinical trials showed that inactivated monovalent EV-A71 vaccines manufactured in China were highly efficacious against HFMD associated with EV-A71, but offered no protection against HFMD caused by CV-A16. To better inform vaccination policy, we used mathematical models to evaluate the effect of prospective vaccination against EV-A71-associated HFMD and the potential risk of serotype replacement by CV-A16. We also extended the model to address the co-circulation, and implications for vaccination, of additional non-EV-A71, non-CV-A16 serotypes of enterovirus.Weekly reports of HFMD incidence from 31 provinces in Mainland China from 1 January 2009 to 31 December 2013 were used to fit multi-serotype time series susceptible-infected-recovered (TSIR epidemic models. We obtained good model fit for the two-serotype TSIR with cross-protection, capturing the seasonality and geographic heterogeneity of province-level transmission, with strong correlation between the observed and simulated epidemic series. The national estimate of the basic reproduction number, R0, weighted by provincial population size, was 26.63 for EV-A71 (interquartile range [IQR]: 23.14, 30.40 and 27.13 for CV-A16 (IQR: 23.15, 31.34, with considerable variation between provinces (however, predictions about the overall impact of vaccination were robust to this variation. EV-A71 incidence was projected to decrease monotonically with higher coverage rates of EV-A71 vaccination. Across provinces, CV-A16 incidence in the

  7. Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease in China: Modeling Epidemic Dynamics of Enterovirus Serotypes and Implications for Vaccination.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takahashi, Saki; Liao, Qiaohong; Van Boeckel, Thomas P; Xing, Weijia; Sun, Junling; Hsiao, Victor Y; Metcalf, C Jessica E; Chang, Zhaorui; Liu, Fengfeng; Zhang, Jing; Wu, Joseph T; Cowling, Benjamin J; Leung, Gabriel M; Farrar, Jeremy J; van Doorn, H Rogier; Grenfell, Bryan T; Yu, Hongjie

    2016-02-01

    Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is a common childhood illness caused by serotypes of the Enterovirus A species in the genus Enterovirus of the Picornaviridae family. The disease has had a substantial burden throughout East and Southeast Asia over the past 15 y. China reported 9 million cases of HFMD between 2008 and 2013, with the two serotypes Enterovirus A71 (EV-A71) and Coxsackievirus A16 (CV-A16) being responsible for the majority of these cases. Three recent phase 3 clinical trials showed that inactivated monovalent EV-A71 vaccines manufactured in China were highly efficacious against HFMD associated with EV-A71, but offered no protection against HFMD caused by CV-A16. To better inform vaccination policy, we used mathematical models to evaluate the effect of prospective vaccination against EV-A71-associated HFMD and the potential risk of serotype replacement by CV-A16. We also extended the model to address the co-circulation, and implications for vaccination, of additional non-EV-A71, non-CV-A16 serotypes of enterovirus. Weekly reports of HFMD incidence from 31 provinces in Mainland China from 1 January 2009 to 31 December 2013 were used to fit multi-serotype time series susceptible-infected-recovered (TSIR) epidemic models. We obtained good model fit for the two-serotype TSIR with cross-protection, capturing the seasonality and geographic heterogeneity of province-level transmission, with strong correlation between the observed and simulated epidemic series. The national estimate of the basic reproduction number, R0, weighted by provincial population size, was 26.63 for EV-A71 (interquartile range [IQR]: 23.14, 30.40) and 27.13 for CV-A16 (IQR: 23.15, 31.34), with considerable variation between provinces (however, predictions about the overall impact of vaccination were robust to this variation). EV-A71 incidence was projected to decrease monotonically with higher coverage rates of EV-A71 vaccination. Across provinces, CV-A16 incidence in the post-EV-A71

  8. MRI findings of neurologic complications in the enterovirus 71-infected hand-foot-mouth disease

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen Feng; Li Jianjun; Liu Tao; Xiang Wei; Wen Guoqiang

    2010-01-01

    Objective: To explore the imaging characteristics of neurologic complications associated with the enterovirus 71 (EV71) epidemic by analyzing 25 cases and reviewing the literature. Methods: Twenty-five cases of hand-foot-mouth disease with neurologic complications during the recent EV71 outbreaks of Hainan province were studied for the clinical features and imaging findings, and literature were reviewed. Results: In 5 cases, acute flaccid paralysis associated with EV71-infected hand-foot-mouth disease was related to the linear high signal in the spinal cord on sagittal images. Two cases showed symmetrical, well- defined hyperintense lesions in the spinal cord on T 2 WI transverse. Strong enhancement of the ventral horns and root was seen on the contrast-enhanced axial T 1 WI. In brainstem encephalitis, all lesions presented with significant hyperintensity on T 2 WI and hypointense on T 1 WI in the posterior portions of the medulla oblongata, midbrain, and pons. The manifestations of aseptic meningitis (AM) on MRI have no characteristics, but subdural effusion, meningeal enhancement and hydrocephalus can be the indirect signs of AM. Conclusions: MRI is an effective method to investigate neurologic complications associated with the EV71 epidemic. Posterior portions of the medulla oblongata and pons, bilateral ventral horns of spinal involvement are characteristic findings of enteroviral encephalomyelitis. (authors)

  9. Is a multivalent hand, foot, and mouth disease vaccine feasible?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klein, Michel; Chong, Pele

    2015-01-01

    Enterovirus A infections are the primary cause of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in infants and young children. Although enterovirus 71 (EV-A71) and coxsackievirus A16 (CV-A16) are the predominant causes of HFMD epidemics worldwide, EV-A71 has emerged as a major neurovirulent virus responsible for severe neurological complications and fatal outcomes. HFMD is a serious health threat and economic burden across the Asia-Pacific region. Inactivated EV-A71 vaccines have elicited protection against EV-A71 but not against CV-A16 infections in large efficacy trials. The current development of a bivalent inactivated EV-A71/CV-A16 vaccine is the next step toward that of multivalent HFMD vaccines. These vaccines should ultimately include other prevalent pathogenic coxsackieviruses A (CV-A6 and CV-A10), coxsackieviruses B (B3 and B5) and echovirus 30 that often co-circulate during HFMD epidemics and can cause severe HFMD, aseptic meningitis and acute viral myocarditis. The prospect and challenges for the development of such multivalent vaccines are discussed. PMID:26009802

  10. Development of a novel quantitative real-time RT-PCR assay for the simultaneous detection of all serotypes of Foot-and-mouth disease virus

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Thomas Bruun; Uttenthal, Åse; de Stricker, K.

    2003-01-01

    Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) spreads extremely fast and the need for rapid and robust diagnostic virus detection systems was obvious during the recent European epidemic. Using a novel real-time RT-PCR system based on primer-probe energy transfer (PriProET) we present here an assay targeting...

  11. Foot-and-Mouth Disease

    OpenAIRE

    Grubman, Marvin J.; Baxt, Barry

    2004-01-01

    Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious disease of cloven-hoofed animals. The disease was initially described in the 16th century and was the first animal pathogen identified as a virus. Recent FMD outbreaks in developed countries and their significant economic impact have increased the concern of governments worldwide. This review describes the reemergence of FMD in developed countries that had been disease free for many years and the effect that this has had on disease control s...

  12. Quality and Toxicity Assessments of Foot and Mouth Disease Virus ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The quality and toxicity assessment of foot and mouth disease virus vaccine was carried out in inoculated guinea pigs. ... could be used for the control and prevention of foot and mouth disease in Nigerian livestock. Keyword: Foot and Mouth Disease ... 2 blended with Incomplete. Seepic Adjuvant (ISA) montanide 206, which.

  13. [Epidemic parotiditis, a reportable disease].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boverhoff, J C; Baart, J A

    2013-01-01

    Three consecutive patients with an acute swelling of one of the cheeks, were diagnosed with epidemic parotiditis. The first phase of the diagnostic procedure for an acute cheek swelling is to eliminate the possibility of odontogenic causes. When odontogenic problems have been excluded, non-dentition-related causes may be considered. An acute, progressive swelling in the preauricular area can often be attributed to an inflammation of the parotid gland, but epidemic parotiditis should also be considered. Epidemic parotiditis, or mumps, is caused by the mumps virus. Contamination occurs aerogenically. In the Netherlands, mumps vaccine is an ingredient of the governmental combined mump-measles-rubella inoculation programme. However, in recent years several small-scale parotiditis epidemics have broken out, predominantly among young, inoculated adults. Oropharyngeal mucus and blood samples are needed to diagnose the disease. Each case of the disease should be reported to the community healthcare service.

  14. Resource Estimations in Contingency Planning for Foot-and-Mouth Disease

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anette Boklund

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Preparedness planning for a veterinary crisis is important to be fast and effective in the eradication of disease. For countries with a large export of animals and animal products, each extra day in an epidemic will cost millions of Euros due to the closure of export markets. This is important for the Danish husbandry industry, especially the swine industry, which had an export of €4.4 billion in 2012. The purposes of this project were to (1 develop an iterative tool with the aim of estimating the resources needed during an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD in Denmark, (2 identify areas, which can delay the control of the disease. The tool developed should easily be updated, when knowledge is gained from other veterinary crises or during an outbreak of FMD. The stochastic simulation model DTU-DADS was used to simulate spread of FMD in Denmark. For each task occurring during an epidemic of FMD, the time and personnel needed per herd was estimated by a working group with expertise in contingency and crisis management. By combining this information, an iterative model was created to calculate the needed personnel on a daily basis during the epidemic. The needed personnel was predicted to peak within the first week with a requirement of approximately 123 (65–175 veterinarians, 33 (23–64 technicians, and 36 (26–49 administrative staff on day 2, while the personnel needed in the Danish Emergency Management Agency (responsible for the hygiene barrier and initial cleaning and disinfection of the farm was predicted to be 174 (58–464, mostly recruits. The time needed for surveillance visits was predicted to be the most influential factor in the calculations. Based on results from a stochastic simulation model, it was possible to create an iterative model to estimate the requirements for personnel during an FMD outbreak in Denmark. The model can easily be adjusted, when new information on resources appears from management of other crisis or

  15. Survival of foot-and-mouth disease virus in cheese.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blackwell, J H

    1976-09-01

    Persistence of foot-and-mouth disease virus during the manufacture of Cheddar, Mozzarella, Camembert cheese prepared from milk of cows experimentally infected with the virus was studied. Cheese samples were made on a laboratory scale with commercial lactic acid starter cultures and the microbial protease MARZYME as a coagulant. Milk was heated at different temperatures for different intervals before it was made into cheese. Food-and-mouth disease virus survived the acidic conditions of Cheddar and Camembert cheese processing but not that of Mozzarella. Foot-and-mouth disease virus survived processing but not curing for 30 days in Cheddar cheese preparaed from heated milk. However, the virus survived curing for 60 days but not for 120 days in cheese (pH 5) prepared from unheated milk. Foot-and-mouth disease virus survived in Camembert cheese (pH 5) for 21 days at 2 C but not for 35 days.

  16. Role of word-of-mouth for programs of voluntary vaccination: A game-theoretic approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhattacharyya, Samit; Bauch, Chris T; Breban, Romulus

    2015-11-01

    We propose a model describing the synergetic feedback between word-of-mouth (WoM) and epidemic dynamics controlled by voluntary vaccination. The key feature consists in combining a game-theoretic model for the spread of WoM and a compartmental model describing VSIR disease dynamics in the presence of a program of voluntary vaccination. We evaluate and compare two scenarios for determinants of behavior, depending on what WoM disseminates: (1) vaccine advertising, which may occur whether or not an epidemic is ongoing and (2) epidemic status, notably disease prevalence. Understanding the synergy between the two strategies could be particularly important for designing voluntary vaccination campaigns. We find that, in the initial phase of an epidemic, vaccination uptake is determined more by vaccine advertising than the epidemic status. As the epidemic progresses, epidemic status becomes increasingly important for vaccination uptake, considerably accelerating vaccination uptake toward a stable vaccination coverage. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Bioeconomic modelling of foot and mouth disease and its control in Ethiopia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jemberu, W.T.

    2016-01-01

    Keywords: Control, cost-benefit, economic impact, epidemiology, Ethiopia, Foot and mouth disease, intention, modelling, production system.

    Bioeconomic Modelling of Foot and Mouth Disease and Its control in Ethiopia

    Foot and mouth disease (FMD) is a

  18. Comparing control strategies against foot-and-mouth disease: Will vaccination be cost-effective in Denmark?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Boklund, Anette; Hisham Beshara Halasa, Tariq; Christiansen, Lasse Engbo

    2013-01-01

    Recent outbreaks of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in Europe have highlighted the need for assessment of control strategies to optimise control of the spread of FMD. Our objectives were to assess the epidemiological and financial impact of simulated FMD outbreaks in Denmark and the effect of using...... ring depopulation or emergency vaccination to control these outbreaks. Two stochastic simulation models (InterSpreadPlus (ISP) and the modified Davis Animal Disease Simulation model (DTU-DADS)) were used to simulate the spread of FMD in Denmark using different control strategies.Each epidemic...... animal movements, medium-risk contacts (veterinarians, artificial inseminators or milk controllers), low-risk contacts (animal feed and rendering trucks, technicians or visitors), market contacts, abattoir trucks, milk tanks, or local spread.The two simulation models showed different results in terms...

  19. Epidemic Intelligence. Langmuir and the Birth of Disease Surveillance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lyle Fearnley

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available In the wake of the SARS and influenza epidemics of the past decade, one public health solution has become a refrain: surveillance systems for detection of disease outbreaks. This paper is an effort to understand how disease surveillance for outbreak detection gained such paramount rationality in contemporary public health. The epidemiologist Alexander Langmuir is well known as the creator of modern disease surveillance. But less well known is how he imagined disease surveillance as one part of what he called “epidemic intelligence.” Langmuir developed the practice of disease surveillance during an unprecedented moment in which the threat of biological warfare brought civil defense experts and epidemiologists together around a common problem. In this paper, I describe how Langmuir navigated this world, experimenting with new techniques and rationales of epidemic control. Ultimately, I argue, Langmuir′s experiments resulted in a set of techniques and infrastructures – a system of epidemic intelligence – that transformed the epidemic as an object of human art.

  20. Biochemical map of polypeptides specified by foot-and-mouth disease virus.

    OpenAIRE

    Grubman, M J; Robertson, B H; Morgan, D O; Moore, D M; Dowbenko, D

    1984-01-01

    Pulse-chase labeling of foot-and-mouth disease virus-infected bovine kidney cells revealed stable and unstable viral-specific polypeptides. To identify precursor-product relationships among these polypeptides, antisera against a number of structural and nonstructural viral-specific polypeptides were used. Cell-free translations programmed with foot-and-mouth disease virion RNA or foot-and-mouth disease virus-infected bovine kidney cell lysates, which were shown to contain almost identical pol...

  1. Veterinary realities: what is foot and mouth disease?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Law, J.; Mol, A.

    2011-01-01

    Veterinary science draws on different traditions for knowing and acting, and mobilises different kinds of materials and techniques. This article explores these differences and their tensions for the diagnosis of foot and mouth disease in the UK in 2001. It shows that when they talk of foot and mouth

  2. Editorial: Foot-and-Mouth Disease in Swine

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Perez, Andres M.; Willeberg, Preben W

    2017-01-01

    Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is one of the most devastating diseases of livestock. The disease is caused by infection with a picornavirus, generically referred as FMD virus (FMDV), which is considered one of the most infectious agents affecting animals. FMD status affects national and international...

  3. Reiter′s Disease - Clinical Profile of Epidemic Form

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H S Girgia

    1980-01-01

    Full Text Available Absence of urethritis need not exclude the possiblity of Reiter′s disease in young males where conjunctivitis and polyarthritis are cardinal features. Appearance of cutaneous lesion early in the course of the disease heralds a poor prognosis specially in the rare epidemic form of the disease. Two cases of Reiter′s disease are reported. Both belonged to the dysentric type of the disease; sometimes ref to as the epidemic form. Relatively high dose of steroids necessary to control symptoms.

  4. Dynamics of epidemic diseases on a growing adaptive network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Demirel, Güven; Barter, Edmund; Gross, Thilo

    2017-02-10

    The study of epidemics on static networks has revealed important effects on disease prevalence of network topological features such as the variance of the degree distribution, i.e. the distribution of the number of neighbors of nodes, and the maximum degree. Here, we analyze an adaptive network where the degree distribution is not independent of epidemics but is shaped through disease-induced dynamics and mortality in a complex interplay. We study the dynamics of a network that grows according to a preferential attachment rule, while nodes are simultaneously removed from the network due to disease-induced mortality. We investigate the prevalence of the disease using individual-based simulations and a heterogeneous node approximation. Our results suggest that in this system in the thermodynamic limit no epidemic thresholds exist, while the interplay between network growth and epidemic spreading leads to exponential networks for any finite rate of infectiousness when the disease persists.

  5. Evidence for emergency vaccination having played a crucial role to control the 1965/66 foot-and-mouth disease outbreak in Switzerland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dana eZingg

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD is a highly contagious disease which caused several large outbreaks in Europe in the last century. The last important outbreak in Switzerland took place in 1965/66 and affected more than 900 premises and more than 50,000 animals were slaughtered. Large scale emergency vaccination of the cattle and pig population has been applied to control the epidemic. In recent years, many studies have used infectious disease models to assess the impact of different disease control measures, including models developed for diseases exotic for the specific region of interest. Often, the absence of real outbreak data makes a validation of such models impossible. This study aimed to evaluate whether a spatial, stochastic simulation model (the Davis Animal Disease Simulation model can predict the course of a Swiss FMD epidemic based on the available historic input data on population structure, contact rates, epidemiology of the virus and quality of the vaccine. In addition, the potential outcome of the 1965/66 FMD epidemic without application of vaccination was investigated. Comparing the model outcomes to reality, only the largest 10% of the simulated outbreaks approximated the number of animals being culled. However, the simulation model highly overestimated the number of culled premises. While the outbreak duration could not be well reproduced by the model compared to the 1965/66 epidemic, it was able to accurately estimate the size of the area infected. Without application of vaccination the model predicted a much higher mean number of culled animals than with vaccination, demonstrating that vaccination was likely crucial in disease control for the Swiss FMD outbreak in 1965/66. The study demonstrated the feasibility to analyze historical outbreak data with modern analytical tools. However, it also confirmed that predicted epidemics from a most carefully parametrized model cannot integrate all eventualities of a real epidemic

  6. Disease-induced resource constraints can trigger explosive epidemics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Böttcher, L.; Woolley-Meza, O.; Araújo, N. A. M.; Herrmann, H. J.; Helbing, D.

    2015-11-01

    Advances in mathematical epidemiology have led to a better understanding of the risks posed by epidemic spreading and informed strategies to contain disease spread. However, a challenge that has been overlooked is that, as a disease becomes more prevalent, it can limit the availability of the capital needed to effectively treat those who have fallen ill. Here we use a simple mathematical model to gain insight into the dynamics of an epidemic when the recovery of sick individuals depends on the availability of healing resources that are generated by the healthy population. We find that epidemics spiral out of control into “explosive” spread if the cost of recovery is above a critical cost. This can occur even when the disease would die out without the resource constraint. The onset of explosive epidemics is very sudden, exhibiting a discontinuous transition under very general assumptions. We find analytical expressions for the critical cost and the size of the explosive jump in infection levels in terms of the parameters that characterize the spreading process. Our model and results apply beyond epidemics to contagion dynamics that self-induce constraints on recovery, thereby amplifying the spreading process.

  7. Risk of Foot-and-Mouth Disease spread due to sole occupancy authorities and linked cattle holdings.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard J Orton

    Full Text Available Livestock movements in Great Britain are well recorded, have been extensively analysed with respect to their role in disease spread, and have been used in real time to advise governments on the control of infectious diseases. Typically, livestock holdings are treated as distinct entities that must observe movement standstills upon receipt of livestock, and must report livestock movements. However, there are currently two dispensations that can exempt holdings from either observing standstills or reporting movements, namely the Sole Occupancy Authority (SOA and Cattle Tracing System (CTS Links, respectively. In this report we have used a combination of data analyses and computational modelling to investigate the usage and potential impact of such linked holdings on the size of a Foot-and-Mouth Disease (FMD epidemic. Our analyses show that although SOAs are abundant, their dynamics appear relatively stagnant. The number of CTS Links is also abundant, and increasing rapidly. Although most linked holdings are only involved in a single CTS Link, some holdings are involved in numerous links that can be amalgamated to form "CTS Chains" which can be both large and geographically dispersed. Our model predicts that under a worst case scenario of "one infected - all infected", SOAs do pose a risk of increasing the size (in terms of number of infected holdings of a FMD epidemic, but this increase is mainly due to intra-SOA infection spread events. Furthermore, although SOAs do increase the geographic spread of an epidemic, this increase is predominantly local. Whereas, CTS Chains pose a risk of increasing both the size and the geographical spread of the disease substantially, under a worse case scenario. Our results highlight the need for further investigations into whether CTS Chains are transmission chains, and also investigations into intra-SOA movements and livestock distributions due to the lack of current data.

  8. Mouth cancer in inflammatory bowel diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giagkou, E; Christodoulou, D K; Katsanos, K H

    2016-05-01

    Mouth cancer is a major health problem. Multiple risk factors for developing mouth cancer have been studied and include history of tobacco and alcohol abuse, age over 40, exposure to ultraviolet radiation, human papilloma virus infection (HPV), nutritional deficiencies, chronic irritation, and existence or oral potentially malignant lesions such as leukoplakia and lichen planus. An important risk factor for mouth cancer is chronic immunosuppression and has been extensively reported after solid organ transplantation as well as HIV-infected patients. Diagnosis of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is not yet considered as a risk factor for oral cancer development. However, a significant number of patients with IBD are receiving immunosuppressants and biological therapies which could represent potential oral oncogenic factors either by direct oncogenic effect or by continuous immunosuppression favoring carcinogenesis, especially in patients with HPV(+) IBD. Education on modifiable risk behaviors in patients with IBD is the cornerstone of prevention of mouth cancer. Oral screening should be performed for all patients with IBD, especially those who are about to start an immunosuppressant or a biologic. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  9. Molecular differentiation and phylogenetic analysis of the Egyptian foot-and-mouth disease virus SAT2.

    Science.gov (United States)

    El-Shehawy, Laila I; Abu-Elnaga, Hany I; Rizk, Sonia A; Abd El-Kreem, Ahmed S; Mohamed, A A; Fawzy, Hossam G

    2014-03-01

    In February 2012, a massive new foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) outbreak struck Egypt. In this work, one-step RT-PCR assays were used for in-house detection and differentiation of foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) in Egypt in this year using pan-serotypic and serotype-targeting sequence primers. FMDV SAT2 was the dominant virus in the examined isolates from the epidemic. The complete VP1 coding regions of two isolates were sequenced. The two isolates had 99.2 % sequence identity to most contemporary Egyptian SAT2 reference viruses, whereas they had 89.7-90.1 % identity to the SAT2/EGY/2/2012 isolate, which was collected from Alexandria, Egypt, and previously sequenced by WRLFMD. Phylogenetic analysis showed that Egypt had one topotype and two lineage of FMDV SAT2 in 2012. The Egyptian and the Palestinian 2012 strains were associated mainly with topotype VII, lineage SAT2/VII/Ghb-12, while the virus isolated from Alexandria Governorate belonged to the SAT2/VII/Alx-12 lineage. Topotype VII also comprised lineages that included strains isolated from Libya in 2012 and 2003. Furthermore, within the same topotype, the Egyptian SAT2/2012 isolates were related to strains from Saudi Arabia, Sudan, Eritrea, Cameroon and Nigeria. Nevertheless, more epidemiological work with neighboring countries is needed to prevent cross-border spread of disease and to reach a precise conclusion about the origin of the 2012 FMDV SAT2 emergency in the Middle East.

  10. Foot and Mouth Disease. New values, innovative research agendas and policies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zijpp, van der A.J.; Braker, M.J.E.; Eilers, C.H.A.M.; Kieft, H.; Vogelzang, T.A.; Oosting, S.J.

    2004-01-01

    A Foot and Mouth Disease outbreak is not by definition similar to a Foot and Mouth Disease crisis. Why then did the 2001 outbreak result in a crisis situation in the Netherlands? It was not because nobody was prepared for it. The Ministry of Agriculture, Nature Management and Fisheries had a

  11. Hand, foot and mouth disease caused by coxsackievirus A6, Beijing, 2013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hongyan, Gu; Chengjie, Ma; Qiaozhi, Yang; Wenhao, Hua; Juan, Li; Lin, Pang; Yanli, Xu; Hongshan, Wei; Xingwang, Li

    2014-12-01

    Specimens and clinical data were collected from 243 hand, foot and mouth disease patients in Beijing in 2013. In total, 130 stool specimens were genotyped for enterovirus. Hand, foot and mouth disease was mainly detected in suburban areas and at the edges of urban areas between May and August. Coxsackievirus (CV) A6 replaced enterovirus (EV) 71 and CVA16, becoming the main causative agent of hand, foot and mouth disease. CVA6 infection led to significantly reduced fever duration and glucose levels compared with EV71 infection.

  12. Investigation of airborne foot-and-mouth disease virus transmission during low-wind conditions in the early phase of the UK 2001 epidemic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mikkelsen, T.; Alexandersen, S.; Astrup, P.

    2003-01-01

    animals. Such spread can be rapid and extensive, and it is known in certain circumstances to have transmitted disease over a distance of several hundred kilometres. During the 2001 FMD epidemic in the United Kingdom (UK), atmospheric dispersion models were applied in real time in order to assess...... techniques and presents the results obtained of detailed analyses performed during the early stages of the UK 2001 epidemic. This paper investigates the potential for disease spread in relation to two outbreaks (Burnside Farm, Heddon-on-the-Wall and Prestwick Hall Farm, Ponteland, Northumberland). A separate...... and secretions which can be infectious, the stability of the virus in the environment, the multiplicity of routes of infection and the very small doses of the virus that can initiate infection. One of the mechanisms of spread is the carriage of droplets and droplet nuclei exhaled in the breath of infected...

  13. Foot-and-mouth Disease Transmission in Africa

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tekleghiorghis, T.; Moormann, R.J.M.; Weerdmeester, K.; Dekker, A.

    2016-01-01

    In Africa, for the control of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD), more information is needed on the spread of the disease at local, regional and inter-regional level. The aim of this review is to identify the role that animal husbandry, trade and wildlife have on the transmission of FMD and to provide

  14. Burning mouth syndrome in Parkinson’s disease: dopamine as cure or cause?

    OpenAIRE

    Coon, Elizabeth A.; Laughlin, Ruple S.

    2012-01-01

    Burning mouth syndrome has been reported as being more common in Parkinson’s disease patients than the general population. While the pathophysiology is unclear, decreased dopamine levels and dopamine dysregulation are hypothesized to play a role. We report a patient with Parkinson’s disease who developed burning mouth syndrome with carbidopa/levodopa. Our patient had resolution of burning mouth symptoms when carbidopa/levodopa was replaced with a dopamine agonist. Based on our patient’s clini...

  15. Degree of host susceptibility in the initial disease outbreak influences subsequent epidemic spread

    Science.gov (United States)

    Severns, Paul M.; Estep, Laura K.; Sackett, Kathryn E.; Mundt, Christopher C.

    2014-01-01

    Summary Disease epidemics typically begin as an outbreak of a relatively small, spatially explicit population of infected individuals (focus), in which disease prevalence increases and rapidly spreads into the uninfected, at-risk population. Studies of epidemic spread typically address factors influencing disease spread through the at-risk population, but the initial outbreak may strongly influence spread of the subsequent epidemic.We initiated wheat stripe rust Puccinia striiformis f. sp. tritici epidemics to assess the influence of the focus on final disease prevalence when the degree of disease susceptibility differed between the at-risk and focus populations.When the focus/at-risk plantings consisted of partially genetic resistant and susceptible cultivars, final disease prevalence was statistically indistinguishable from epidemics produced by the focus cultivar in monoculture. In these experimental epidemics, disease prevalence was not influenced by the transition into an at-risk population that differed in disease susceptibility. Instead, the focus appeared to exert a dominant influence on the subsequent epidemic.Final disease prevalence was not consistently attributable to either the focus or the at-risk population when focus/at-risk populations were planted in a factorial set-up with a mixture (~28% susceptible and 72% resistant) and susceptible individuals. In these experimental epidemics, spatial heterogeneity in disease susceptibility within the at-risk population appeared to counter the dominant influence of the focus.Cessation of spore production from the focus (through fungicide/glyphosate application) after 1.3 generations of stripe rust spread did not reduce final disease prevalence, indicating that the focus influence on disease spread is established early in the epidemic.Synthesis and applications. Our experiments indicated that outbreak conditions can be highly influential on epidemic spread, even when disease resistance in the at-risk population

  16. Rapid Engineering of Foot-and-Mouth Disease Vaccine and Challenge Viruses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Seo-Yong; Lee, Yeo-Joo; Kim, Rae-Hyung; Park, Jeong-Nam; Park, Min-Eun; Ko, Mi-Kyeong; Choi, Joo-Hyung; Chu, Jia-Qi; Lee, Kwang-Nyeong; Kim, Su-Mi; Tark, Dongseob; Lee, Hyang-Sim; Ko, Young-Joon; Seo, Min-Goo; Park, Jung-Won; Kim, Byounghan; Lee, Myoung-Heon; Lee, Jong-Soo; Park, Jong-Hyeon

    2017-08-15

    There are seven antigenically distinct serotypes of foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV), each of which has intratypic variants. In the present study, we have developed methods to efficiently generate promising vaccines against seven serotypes or subtypes. The capsid-encoding gene (P1) of the vaccine strain O1/Manisa/Turkey/69 was replaced with the amplified or synthetic genes from the O, A, Asia1, C, SAT1, SAT2, and SAT3 serotypes. Viruses of the seven serotype were rescued successfully. Each chimeric FMDV with a replacement of P1 showed serotype-specific antigenicity and varied in terms of pathogenesis in pigs and mice. Vaccination of pigs with an experimental trivalent vaccine containing the inactivated recombinants based on the main serotypes O, A, and Asia1 effectively protected them from virus challenge. This technology could be a potential strategy for a customized vaccine with challenge tools to protect against epizootic disease caused by specific serotypes or subtypes of FMDV. IMPORTANCE Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) virus (FMDV) causes significant economic losses. For vaccine preparation, the selection of vaccine strains was complicated by high antigenic variation. In the present study, we suggested an effective strategy to rapidly prepare and evaluate mass-produced customized vaccines against epidemic strains. The P1 gene encoding the structural proteins of the well-known vaccine virus was replaced by the synthetic or amplified genes of viruses of seven representative serotypes. These chimeric viruses generally replicated readily in cell culture and had a particle size similar to that of the original vaccine strain. Their antigenicity mirrored that of the original serotype from which their P1 gene was derived. Animal infection experiments revealed that the recombinants varied in terms of pathogenicity. This strategy will be a useful tool for rapidly generating customized FMD vaccines or challenge viruses for all serotypes, especially for FMD-free countries

  17. Control strategies for foot and mouth disease with particular ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) is a very contagious disease of mammals with a great potential for causing severe economic losses in susceptible cloven-hoofed animals. It is a trans-boundary animal disease, with seven serotypes and all the serotypes produce a disease that is clinically indistinguishable but ...

  18. Spread of epidemic disease on networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newman, M. E.

    2002-07-01

    The study of social networks, and in particular the spread of disease on networks, has attracted considerable recent attention in the physics community. In this paper, we show that a large class of standard epidemiological models, the so-called susceptible/infective/removed (SIR) models can be solved exactly on a wide variety of networks. In addition to the standard but unrealistic case of fixed infectiveness time and fixed and uncorrelated probability of transmission between all pairs of individuals, we solve cases in which times and probabilities are nonuniform and correlated. We also consider one simple case of an epidemic in a structured population, that of a sexually transmitted disease in a population divided into men and women. We confirm the correctness of our exact solutions with numerical simulations of SIR epidemics on networks.

  19. On The Travelling Wave Solution For An SEIR Epidemic Disease ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    We present the travelling wave solution for a Susceptible, Exposed, Infective and Removed (SEIR) epidemic disease model. For this SEIR model, the disease is driven by both the latent and infective class (the diffusion term is included in both classes). The population is closed. Keywords: Epidemic model, spatial spread, ...

  20. Airborne spread of foot-and-mouth disease - model intercomparison

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gloster, J; Jones, A; Redington, A; Burgin, L; Sorensen, J H; Turner, R; Dillon, M; Hullinger, P; Simpson, M; Astrup, P; Garner, G; Stewart, P; D' Amours, R; Sellers, R; Paton, D

    2008-09-04

    Foot-and-mouth disease is a highly infectious vesicular disease of cloven-hoofed animals caused by foot-and-mouth disease virus. It spreads by direct contact between animals, by animal products (milk, meat and semen), by mechanical transfer on people or fomites and by the airborne route - with the relative importance of each mechanism depending on the particular outbreak characteristics. Over the years a number of workers have developed or adapted atmospheric dispersion models to assess the risk of foot-and-mouth disease virus spread through the air. Six of these models were compared at a workshop hosted by the Institute for Animal Health/Met Office during 2008. A number of key issues emerged from the workshop and subsequent modelling work: (1) in general all of the models predicted similar directions for 'at risk' livestock with much of the remaining differences strongly related to differences in the meteorological data used; (2) determination of an accurate sequence of events is highly important, especially if the meteorological conditions vary substantially during the virus emission period; and (3) differences in assumptions made about virus release, environmental fate, and subsequent infection can substantially modify the size and location of the downwind risk area. Close relationships have now been established between participants, which in the event of an outbreak of disease could be readily activated to supply advice or modelling support.

  1. Immunopathogenesis and Virus–Host Interactions of Enterovirus 71 in Patients with Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cox, Jonathan A.; Hiscox, Julian A.; Solomon, Tom; Ooi, Mong-How; Ng, Lisa F. P.

    2017-01-01

    Enterovirus 71 (EV71) is a global infectious disease that affects millions of people. The virus is the main etiological agent for hand, foot, and mouth disease with outbreaks and epidemics being reported globally. Infection can cause severe neurological, cardiac, and respiratory problems in children under the age of 5. Despite on-going efforts, little is known about the pathogenesis of EV71, how the host immune system responds to the virus and the molecular mechanisms behind these responses. Moreover, current animal models remain limited, because they do not recapitulate similar disease patterns and symptoms observed in humans. In this review the role of the host–viral interactions of EV71 are discussed together with the various models available to examine: how EV71 utilizes its proteins to cleave host factors and proteins, aiding virus replication; how EV71 uses its own viral proteins to disrupt host immune responses and aid in its immune evasion. These discoveries along with others, such as the EV71 crystal structure, have provided possible targets for treatment and drug interventions. PMID:29238324

  2. Establishing a foot-and-mouth disease laboratory network in Southeast Asia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gleeson, L.J.

    2000-01-01

    The Joint FAO/IAEA Division has established an effective laboratory network in Southeast Asia to support the diagnostic requirements of the Southeast Asian Foot-and-mouth disease control campaign (SEAFMD). All laboratories have a capability to accurately detect and type foot-and-mouth disease virus antigen in clinical specimens and to conduct the screening test for detection of serum antibodies against the endemic sero-types of the virus. (author)

  3. The characteristics of autonomic nervous system disorders in burning mouth syndrome and Parkinson disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koszewicz, Magdalena; Mendak, Magdalena; Konopka, Tomasz; Koziorowska-Gawron, Ewa; Budrewicz, Sławomir

    2012-01-01

    To conduct a clinical electrophysiologic evaluation of autonomic nervous system functions in patients with burning mouth syndrome and Parkinson disease and estimate the type and intensity of the autonomic dysfunction. The study involved 83 subjects-33 with burning mouth syndrome, 20 with Parkinson disease, and 30 controls. The BMS group included 27 women and 6 men (median age, 60.0 years), and the Parkinson disease group included 15 women and 5 men (median age, 66.5 years). In the control group, there were 20 women and 10 men (median age, 59.0 years). All patients were subjected to autonomic nervous system testing. In addition to the Low autonomic disorder questionnaire, heart rate variability (HRV), deep breathing (exhalation/inspiration [E/I] ratio), and sympathetic skin response (SSR) tests were performed in all cases. Parametric and nonparametric tests (ANOVA, Kruskal-Wallis, and Scheffe tests) were used in the statistical analysis. The mean values for HRV and E/I ratios were significantly lower in the burning mouth syndrome and Parkinson disease groups. Significant prolongation of SSR latency in the foot was revealed in both burning mouth syndrome and Parkinson disease patients, and lowering of the SSR amplitude occurred in only the Parkinson disease group. The autonomic questionnaire score was significantly higher in burning mouth syndrome and Parkinson disease patients than in the control subjects, with the Parkinson disease group having the highest scores. In patients with burning mouth syndrome, a significant impairment of both the sympathetic and parasympathetic nervous systems was found but sympathetic/parasympathetic balance was preserved. The incidence and intensity of autonomic nervous system dysfunction was similar in patients with burning mouth syndrome and Parkinson disease, which may suggest some similarity in their pathogeneses.

  4. Disease spreading with epidemic alert on small-world networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Han, Xiao-Pu

    2007-01-01

    Base on two-dimension small-world networks, a susceptible-infected model with epidemic alert is proposed in this Letter. In this model, if some parts of the network are alarmed as dangerous, a fraction of edges between the alarmed parts and others will be removed, and two cases of alerting rules that the degree and frequency of contacts kept unchanged are considered respectively. The numerical simulations show that the spreading velocity is reduced by the accurate and timely epidemic alert, and the more accurate and timely, the stronger the deceleration effect. This model indicates that to broadcast epidemic alert timely is helpful and necessary in the control of epidemic spreading, and in agreement with the general view of epidemic alert. This work is helpful to understand the effects of epidemic alert on disease spreading

  5. Meta-analysis on the efficacy of foot-and-mouth disease emergency vaccination

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hisham Beshara Halasa, Tariq; Boklund, Anette; Cox, Sarah

    2011-01-01

    the results. Peer-reviewed, symposium, and unpublished studies were considered in the analysis. Clinical protection and virological protection against foot and mouth disease were used as parameters to assess the efficacy of emergency vaccination. The clinical protection was estimated based on the appearance...... publication bias tests. In total, 31 studies were included in the analyses, of which 26 were peer-reviewed studies, 1 was a symposium study and 4 were unpublished studies. Cattle, swine and sheep were well protected against clinical disease and foot and mouth disease infection following the use of emergency...... vaccine. Fortunately, no significant bias that would alter the conclusions was encountered in the analysis. Meta-analysis can be a useful tool to summarize literature results from a systematic review of the efficacy of foot and mouth disease emergency vaccination....

  6. Characterization of epitope-tagged foot-and-mouth disease virus

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Seago, J.; Jackson, T.; Doel, C.; Fry, E.; Stuart, D.; Harmsen, M.M.; Charleston, B.; Juleff, N.

    2012-01-01

    Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious and economically devastating disease of cloven-hoofed animals with an almost-worldwide distribution. Conventional FMD vaccines consisting of chemically inactivated viruses have aided in the eradication of FMD from Europe and remain the main tool

  7. Enterovirus 71-associated hand, foot and mouth diseases with neurologic symptoms, a university hospital experience in Korea, 2009

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hye Kyung Cho

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available Purpose : Hand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD is a common viral illness in children, which is usually mild and self-limiting. However, in recent epidemics of HFMD in Asia, enterovirus 71 (EV71 has been recognized as a causative agent with severe neurological symptoms with or without cardiopulmonary involvement. HFMD was epidemic in Korea in the spring of 2009. Severe cases with complications including death have been reported. The clinical characteristics in children with neurologic manifestations of EV71 were studied in Ewha Womans University Mokdong Hospital. Methods : Examinations for EV71 were performed from the stools, respiratory secretion or CSF of children who presented neurologic symptoms associated with HFMD by realtime PCR. Clinical and radiologic data of the patients were collected and analyzed. Results : EV71 was isolated from the stool of 16 patients but not from respiratory secretion or CSF. Among the 16 patients, meningitis (n=10 was the most common manifestation, followed by Guillain-Barr&eacute; syndrome (n=3, meningoencephalitis (n=2, poliomyelitis-like paralytic disease (n=1, and myoclonus (n=1. Gene analysis showed that most of them were caused by EV71 subgenotype C4a, which was prevalent in China in 2008. Conclusion : Because EV71 causes severe complications and death in children, a surveillance system to predict upcoming outbreaks should be established and maintained and adequate public health measures are needed to control disease.

  8. Outbreaks of Foot-and-Mouth Disease in Libya and Saudi Arabia During 2013 Due to an Exotic O/ME-SA/Ind-2001 Lineage Virus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knowles, N J; Bachanek-Bankowska, K; Wadsworth, J; Mioulet, V; Valdazo-González, B; Eldaghayes, I M; Dayhum, A S; Kammon, A M; Sharif, M A; Waight, S; Shamia, A M; Tenzin, S; Wernery, U; Grazioli, S; Brocchi, E; Subramaniam, S; Pattnaik, B; King, D P

    2016-10-01

    Foot-and-mouth disease viruses are often restricted to specific geographical regions and spread to new areas may lead to significant epidemics. Phylogenetic analysis of sequences of the VP1 genome region of recent outbreak viruses from Libya and Saudi Arabia has revealed a lineage, O-Ind-2001, normally found in the Indian subcontinent. This paper describes the characterization of field viruses collected from these cases and provides information about a new real-time RT-PCR assay that can be used to detect viruses from this lineage and discriminate them from other endemic FMD viruses that are co-circulating in North Africa and western Eurasia. © 2014 The Authors. Transboundary and Emerging Diseases Published by Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

  9. Burning Mouth Syndrome and "Burning Mouth Syndrome".

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rifkind, Jacob Bernard

    2016-03-01

    Burning mouth syndrome is distressing to both the patient and practitioner unable to determine the cause of the patient's symptoms. Burning mouth syndrome is a diagnosis of exclusion, which is used only after nutritional deficiencies, mucosal disease, fungal infections, hormonal disturbances and contact stomatitis have been ruled out. This article will explore the many causes and treatment of patients who present with a chief complaint of "my mouth burns," including symptomatic treatment for those with burning mouth syndrome.

  10. Impact of delay on disease outbreak in a spatial epidemic model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Xia-Xia; Wang, Jian-Zhong

    2015-04-01

    One of the central issues in studying epidemic spreading is the mechanism on disease outbreak. In this paper, we investigate the effects of time delay on disease outbreak in spatial epidemics based on a reaction-diffusion model. By mathematical analysis and numerical simulations, we show that when time delay is more than a critical value, the disease outbreaks. The obtained results show that the time delay is an important factor in the spread of the disease, which may provide new insights on disease control.

  11. Excretion of enterovirus 71 in persons infected with hand, foot and mouth disease

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li Jie

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD is a common illness in young children. It also can be seen in adults occasionally. Enterovirus 71 (EV71, a pathogen that causes not only HFMD but also neurological complications and even death, has caused many HFMD outbreaks in China. However, till now the data about the duration of EV71 shedding is very limited. Results A total of 136 throat swabs and fecal samples were collected from 27 children and 3 adults, which includs 7 close contacts, 9 mild cases and 14 severe cases,. The participants were divided into three groups namely, severe case group, mild case group and close contact group. All the samples were assayed with real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR. Kruskal-Wallis Test was employed to compare the difference in duration of viral RNA shedding among three groups. The results showed that significant difference in duration of EV71 shedding was found among three groups (P  Conclusions HFMD is characterized by extended excretion of EV71. Our results suggest that the duration of EV71 shedding is correlated with the severity of the disease. EV71 shedding through feces can persist more than 54 days. Prolonged virus shedding is a potential risk factor of proliferating HFMD epidemic.

  12. Custom-engineered chimeric foot-and-mouth disease vaccine elicits protective immune responses in pigs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chimeric foot-and-mouth disease viruses (FMDV) of which the antigenic properties can be readily manipulated is a potentially powerful approach in the control of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in sub-Saharan Africa. FMD vaccine application is complicated by the extensive variability of the South Africa...

  13. Foot-and-mouth disease: past, present and future

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jamal, Syed Muhammad; Belsham, Graham

    2013-01-01

    within countries where the disease is endemic due to reduced animal productivity and the restrictions on international trade in animal products. The disease is caused by infection with foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV), a picornavirus. Seven different serotypes (and numerous variants) of FMDV have been...... it is important to characterize the viruses that are circulating if vaccination is being used for disease control. This review describes current methods for the detection and characterization of FMDVs. Sequence information is increasingly being used for identifying the source of outbreaks. In addition...

  14. Current Treatment Options in Challenging Oral Diseases: Burning Mouth Syndrome

    OpenAIRE

    Bilgen Erdoğan; Murat Yılmaz

    2012-01-01

    Burning mouth syndrome is a chronic condition characterized by burning pain without any signs of an oral mucosal pathology, that usually affects postmenopausal women. Burning sensation is often accompanied by dysgeusia and xerostomia. The pathogenesis of the disease is unknown and an effective treatment option for most of the patients has not been defined yet. The aim of this review is to present current pharmacological and physicological treatments of burning mouth syndrome.

  15. Current Treatment Options in Challenging Oral Diseases: Burning Mouth Syndrome

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bilgen Erdoğan

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Burning mouth syndrome is a chronic condition characterized by burning pain without any signs of an oral mucosal pathology, that usually affects postmenopausal women. Burning sensation is often accompanied by dysgeusia and xerostomia. The pathogenesis of the disease is unknown and an effective treatment option for most of the patients has not been defined yet. The aim of this review is to present current pharmacological and physicological treatments of burning mouth syndrome.

  16. Survey of enterovirus infections from hand, foot and mouth disease outbreak in china, 2009

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yang Fan

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In China, a rapid expansion of Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD outbreaks has occurred since 2004 and HFMD has become an important issue for China. However, people are still only concerned with human enterovirus 71(HEV-71 and coxsackie virus A16 (CV-A16. Much of what is known about the other enterovirus infections relies on fractional evidence and old epidemic data, with little knowledge concerning their distribution. To alert potential threatens of the other enteroviruses, our study genetically characterized specimens from different regions of China and yielded novel information concerning the circulating and phylogenetic characteristics of enteroviral strains from HFMD cases. Findings A total of 301 clinical throat swabs were randomly obtained from patients suffering from HFMD from the southern, northern and central regions of China during outbreaks in 2009. 266 of 301 (88.4% HFMD cases were found positive for HEV and seven genotypes, HEV-71, CV-A16, -B5, -A4, -A6, -A10, and -A12, were detected. Conclusions The HFMD pathogen compositions in the different regions of China were significantly different. HFMD epidemics might persist for a long time in China due to the multiple pathogen compositions, the enteroviral characteristic of recombination and co-infection, the ever-increasing travel and migration and the deficiency of effective vaccine. Our study deserves the attention on HFMD control and vaccine development.

  17. A final size relation for epidemic models of vector-transmitted diseases

    OpenAIRE

    Fred Brauer

    2017-01-01

    We formulate and analyze an age of infection model for epidemics of diseases transmitted by a vector, including the possibility of direct transmission as well. We show how to determine a basic reproduction number. While there is no explicit final size relation as for diseases transmitted directly, we are able to obtain estimates for the final size of the epidemic.

  18. Risk and economic consequences of contagious animal disease introduction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Horst, H.S.

    1998-01-01

    Introduction

    Within the European Union, epidemics of contagious animal diseases such as Classical Swine Fever (CSF) and Foot-and-Mouth Disease (FMD) are to be eradicated according to strict EU- prescriptions including stamping-out of infected herds,

  19. Characterization of foot-and-mouth disease virus gene products with antisera against bacterially synthesized fusion proteins

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Strebel, K.; Beck, E.; Strohmaier, K.; Schaller, H.

    1986-01-01

    Defined segments of the cloned foot-and-mouth disease virus genome corresponding to all parts of the coding region were expressed in Escherichia coli as fusions to the N-terminal part of the MS2-polymerase gene under the control of the inducible λPL promoter. All constructs yielded large amounts of proteins, which were purified and used to raise sequence-specific antisera in rabbits. These antisera were used to identify the corresponding viral gene products in 35 S-labeled extracts from foot-and-mouth disease virus-infected BHK cells. This allowed us to locate unequivocally all mature foot-and-mouth disease virus gene products in the nucleotide sequence, to identify precursor-product relationships, and to detect several foot-and mouth disease virus gene products not previously identified in vivo or in vitro

  20. Effects of epidemic threshold definition on disease spread statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lagorio, C.; Migueles, M. V.; Braunstein, L. A.; López, E.; Macri, P. A.

    2009-03-01

    We study the statistical properties of SIR epidemics in random networks, when an epidemic is defined as only those SIR propagations that reach or exceed a minimum size sc. Using percolation theory to calculate the average fractional size of an epidemic, we find that the strength of the spanning link percolation cluster P∞ is an upper bound to . For small values of sc, P∞ is no longer a good approximation, and the average fractional size has to be computed directly. We find that the choice of sc is generally (but not always) guided by the network structure and the value of T of the disease in question. If the goal is to always obtain P∞ as the average epidemic size, one should choose sc to be the typical size of the largest percolation cluster at the critical percolation threshold for the transmissibility. We also study Q, the probability that an SIR propagation reaches the epidemic mass sc, and find that it is well characterized by percolation theory. We apply our results to real networks (DIMES and Tracerouter) to measure the consequences of the choice sc on predictions of average outcome sizes of computer failure epidemics.

  1. Beyond policy networks: policy framing and the politics of expertise in the 2001 Foot and Mouth Disease crisis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilkinson, Katy; Lowe, Philip; Donaldson, Andrew

    2010-01-01

    For the past decade, the policy community/issue network typology of pressure group interaction has been used to explain policy outcomes and the policy-making process. To re-examine the validity of this typology, the paper focuses on the UK government's response to the 2001 Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) crisis, and in particular the decision to pursue contiguous culling rather than vaccination to overcome the epidemic. Rather than illustrating the emergence of an issue network in agricultural policy, the decision-making process of the FMD outbreak demonstrates continuity with prior crises. In addition, the politicization of scientific expertise is identified as an emerging trend in crisis management. Policy framing is used to explain the impetus behind the contiguous cull decision, concluding that the legacy of previous policy choices conditioned the crisis response to a far greater degree than contemporaneous pressure group action.

  2. Carriers of foot-and-mouth disease virus: a review

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Moonen, P.; Schrijver, R.

    2000-01-01

    This review describes current knowledge about persistent foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) infections, the available methods to detect carrier animals, the properties of persisting virus, the immunological mechanisms, and the risk of transmission. In particular, knowledge about the carrier state,

  3. Financial Impact of Foot-and-mouth disease outbreaks on pig farms in the Republic of Korea, 2014/2015.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoon, Hachung; Jeong, Wooseog; Han, Jun-Hee; Choi, Jida; Kang, Yong-Myung; Kim, Yong-Sang; Park, Hong-Sig; Carpenter, Tim E

    2018-01-01

    The financial impact of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) that occurred in 180 piggeries (100 farrow-to-finish and 80 fattening farms) confirmed infected during the 2014/2015 epidemic in the Republic of Korea was estimated at the farm level. The median loss due to slaughtering of pigs prior to their expected market weights was US$ 71.8 (uncovered compensation-compensation loss) plus US$ 57.3 (foregone net gain) per pig. Median loss per farm was US$ 27,487 (55.6% of total loss) for compensation and US$ 15,925 (44.4%) for foregone net gain. The total loss per farm (median, 25th-75th percentile) was US$ 43,822 (9,767-115,893), which represented 49.4% (11.5-112.8) of the annual net gain of pig farms. The total financial loss in 180 FMD outbreak pig farms was US$ 25.2 million, which was nearly one-half of the control cost (US$ 58.3 million) spent by the Korean government on this epidemic. The findings in this study should help planning to help reduce the impact at the farm level in the Republic of Korea in the future. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. Foot-and-mouth disease sero-surveillance in Africa and vaccine matching

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tekleghiorghis Sebhatu, T.

    2014-01-01

    Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) was the first animal pathogen to be identified as a virus, and today, more than a century later, it remains at the forefront of major animal diseases. It is a very contagious disease and affects cloven-hoofed domestic and wild animals, mostly cattle, swine, sheep,

  5. Detection of Severe Respiratory Disease Epidemic Outbreaks by CUSUM-Based Overcrowd-Severe-Respiratory-Disease-Index Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos Polanco

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available A severe respiratory disease epidemic outbreak correlates with a high demand of specific supplies and specialized personnel to hold it back in a wide region or set of regions; these supplies would be beds, storage areas, hemodynamic monitors, and mechanical ventilators, as well as physicians, respiratory technicians, and specialized nurses. We describe an online cumulative sum based model named Overcrowd-Severe-Respiratory-Disease-Index based on the Modified Overcrowd Index that simultaneously monitors and informs the demand of those supplies and personnel in a healthcare network generating early warnings of severe respiratory disease epidemic outbreaks through the interpretation of such variables. A post hoc historical archive is generated, helping physicians in charge to improve the transit and future allocation of supplies in the entire hospital network during the outbreak. The model was thoroughly verified in a virtual scenario, generating multiple epidemic outbreaks in a 6-year span for a 13-hospital network. When it was superimposed over the H1N1 influenza outbreak census (2008–2010 taken by the National Institute of Medical Sciences and Nutrition Salvador Zubiran in Mexico City, it showed that it is an effective algorithm to notify early warnings of severe respiratory disease epidemic outbreaks with a minimal rate of false alerts.

  6. Detection of Severe Respiratory Disease Epidemic Outbreaks by CUSUM-Based Overcrowd-Severe-Respiratory-Disease-Index Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castañón-González, Jorge Alberto; Macías, Alejandro E.; Samaniego, José Lino; Buhse, Thomas; Villanueva-Martínez, Sebastián

    2013-01-01

    A severe respiratory disease epidemic outbreak correlates with a high demand of specific supplies and specialized personnel to hold it back in a wide region or set of regions; these supplies would be beds, storage areas, hemodynamic monitors, and mechanical ventilators, as well as physicians, respiratory technicians, and specialized nurses. We describe an online cumulative sum based model named Overcrowd-Severe-Respiratory-Disease-Index based on the Modified Overcrowd Index that simultaneously monitors and informs the demand of those supplies and personnel in a healthcare network generating early warnings of severe respiratory disease epidemic outbreaks through the interpretation of such variables. A post hoc historical archive is generated, helping physicians in charge to improve the transit and future allocation of supplies in the entire hospital network during the outbreak. The model was thoroughly verified in a virtual scenario, generating multiple epidemic outbreaks in a 6-year span for a 13-hospital network. When it was superimposed over the H1N1 influenza outbreak census (2008–2010) taken by the National Institute of Medical Sciences and Nutrition Salvador Zubiran in Mexico City, it showed that it is an effective algorithm to notify early warnings of severe respiratory disease epidemic outbreaks with a minimal rate of false alerts. PMID:24069063

  7. Predicting and controlling infectious disease epidemics using temporal networks

    OpenAIRE

    Masuda, Naoki; Holme, Petter

    2013-01-01

    Infectious diseases can be considered to spread over social networks of people or animals. Mainly owing to the development of data recording and analysis techniques, an increasing amount of social contact data with time stamps has been collected in the last decade. Such temporal data capture the dynamics of social networks on a timescale relevant to epidemic spreading and can potentially lead to better ways to analyze, forecast, and prevent epidemics. However, they also call for extended anal...

  8. Validation of the kit ELISA (FAO, IAEA, PANAFTOSA) to determine antibodies against the virus of the foot-and-mouth disease

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Novel, Magaly; Ochoa, Carlos; Ramos, Pedro; Dominguez, Josefa de; Ruiz, Richard

    1997-01-01

    In Venezuela, endemic country for foot and mouth disease, the inmunoenzymatic test ELISA is not used in the routine diagnose for detection of antibodies against this illness. This fact determined that Panaftosa selected Venezuela as well as Argentina, Brazil, Colombia and Paraguay, to validate the kit developed by FAO - IAEA, in order to establish the point of cut value for each country. It is of high importance to precise the details of the technique in antigens (glycerinated or lyophilizated) so that, under equal conditions, national epidemic studies can be settle down, in such a way that its results can reorient the vaccination campaign and contribute to the Eradication of the Foot and Mouth Disease in Southamerican Countries. In this first stage 622 serums were processed, vaccinated animal (200), virgin (400), and coming from farms where the disease appeared (22). The analysis gave the screening in virgin animals among the 290 serums coming from Venezuela, with the result of 7 positive; this determined to continue insisting on requesting negative serums from Patagonia Argentina. The serum were received on September 14 of 1995 and mounting the screening in front of the Ag O and A, they were really negative to the ELISA test. From the screening of the 200 vaccinated animal serums, 48 were positive A (24%) and 33 positive to virus O (15.5); these results were taken with reservation, since the controls of antigens didn't give the value settled down in the protocol 1.0-1.5 [es

  9. Epidemicity thresholds for water-borne and water-related diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mari, Lorenzo; Casagrandi, Renato; Rinaldo, Andrea; Gatto, Marino

    2018-06-14

    Determining the conditions that favor pathogen establishment in a host community is key to disease control and eradication. However, focusing on long-term dynamics alone may lead to an underestimation of the threats imposed by outbreaks triggered by short-term transient phenomena. Achieving an effective epidemiological response thus requires to look at different timescales, each of which may be endowed with specific management objectives. In this work we aim to determine epidemicity thresholds for some prototypical examples of water-borne and water-related diseases, a diverse family of infections transmitted either directly through water infested with pathogens or by vectors whose lifecycles are closely associated with water. From a technical perspective, while conditions for endemicity are determined via stability analysis, epidemicity thresholds are defined through generalized reactivity analysis, a recently proposed method that allows the study of the short-term instability properties of ecological systems. Understanding the drivers of water-borne and water-related disease dynamics over timescales that may be relevant to epidemic and/or endemic transmission is a challenge of the utmost importance, as large portions of the developing world are still struggling with the burden imposed by these infections. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. [Epidemics and diseases during the Independence period in Mexico].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viesca-Treviño, Carlos

    2010-01-01

    The epidemics and endemic diseases in Mexico were not a problem before the Independence period. Hunger was less than in the past. The 1806 Influenza epidemics had been forgotten. Measles was considered a benign illness. In 1810, there was an increase in the number of cases of black vomit in Veracruz. Sixty percent of 541 hospitalized patients die of the disease. In 1812, an outbreak of yellow fever spread from Veracruz to Jalapa accompanying the movement of troops and killing over 300 soldiers of the Castilla's Battalion. The appearance of petechial fever, maybe typhus marketed in 1813 the onset of the most important epidemics. The preceding was the indirect effect of war: diseases of prisons and military quarters which became overwhelming in times where the movements of troops and of important groups of populations along with crowing, loss homes, hunger and bad hygiene habits. There was also Influenza or "pestilent cold." Measures of detection and quarantine were taken. "Naranjate" mixed with tartaric cremor was used against fever. Fumigation with nitric acid and burners, where they incinerated gun powder were among the health protection policies. It is noteworthy the advance and relief provided by the introduction of smallpox vaccine, the only preventive mean useful against smallpox which was a breakthrough in public health.

  11. Foot-and-Mouth Disease Seroprevalence in Cattle in Eritrea

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tekleghiorghis, T.; Weerdmeester, K.; Hemert-Kluitenberg, van Froukje; Moormann, R.J.M.; Dekker, Aldo

    2017-01-01

    Information about seroprevalence of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) and virus serotypes in Eritrea is unavailable, but is very important as it may guide the choice of intervention measures including vaccination to be implemented. We carried out a cross-sectional study from February to June 2011 in

  12. Field investigation of Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) virus infection ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Prof. Ogunji

    Foot and Mouth Disease Virus (FMDV) is a non-enveloped, single stranded RNA virus ... continents of Asia, Africa, and some regions in the South America. .... FCT = Federal Capital Territory; NE = North East, NC = North Central; NW =.

  13. Construction and characterization of a full-length infectious cDNA clone of foot-and-mouth disease virus strain O/JPN/2010 isolated in Japan in 2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nishi, Tatsuya; Onozato, Hiroyuki; Ohashi, Seiichi; Fukai, Katsuhiko; Yamada, Manabu; Morioka, Kazuki; Kanno, Toru

    2016-06-01

    A full-length infectious cDNA clone of the genome of a foot-and-mouth disease virus isolated from the 2010 epidemic in Japan was constructed and designated pSVL-f02. Transfection of Cos-7 or IBRS-2 cells with this clone allowed the recovery of infectious virus. The recovered virus had the same in vitro characterization as the parental virus with regard to antigenicity in neutralization and indirect immunofluorescence tests, plaque size and one-step growth. Pigs were experimentally infected with the parental virus or the recombinant virus recovered from pSVL-f02 transfected cells. There were no significant differences in clinical signs or antibody responses between the two groups, and virus isolation and viral RNA detection from clinical samples were similar. Virus recovered from transfected cells therefore retained the in vitro characteristics and the in vivo pathogenicity of their parental strain. This cDNA clone should be a valuable tool to analyze determinants of pathogenicity and mechanisms of virus replication, and to develop genetically engineered vaccines against foot-and-mouth disease virus. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Molecular epidemiology, evolution and phylogeny of foot-and-mouth disease virus

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jamal, Syed Muhammad; Belsham, Graham J

    2018-01-01

    Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) is responsible for one of the most economically important infectious diseases of livestock. The virus spreads very easily and continues to affect many countries (mainly in Africa and Asia). The risks associated with the introduction of FMDV result in major...

  15. Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease Complicated with Central Nervous System Involvement in Taiwan in 1980–1981

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luan-Yin Chang

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Sixteen cases from the 1980-1981 Taiwan outbreak of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD associated with central nervous system involvement were identified: nine had polio-like syndrome, four had encephalitis or encephalomyelitis, one had cerebellitis, and two had aseptic meningitis. They all had fever, five (31% had documented myoclonic jerk, and 15 (93% had HFMD. Their mean blood leukocyte count was 12,490/mL, and five (31% had leukocytosis (> 15,000/mL; mean cerebrospinal fluid (CSF leukocyte count was 156/mL, CSF protein was 57 mg/dL and CSF glucose was 57 mg/dL. Two patients with HFMD plus encephalitis died within 1 day of hospitalization, and one of them had acute cardiopulmonary failure mimicking myocarditis. Twenty years later, at least one male patient had sequelae of polio-like syndrome and was therefore exempted from military service. Clinical severity was comparable to the 1998 EV71 epidemic. [J Formos Med Assoc 2007;106(2:173-176

  16. Predicting infection risk of airborne foot-and-mouth disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schley, David; Burgin, Laura; Gloster, John

    2009-05-06

    Foot-and-mouth disease is a highly contagious disease of cloven-hoofed animals, the control and eradication of which is of significant worldwide socio-economic importance. The virus may spread by direct contact between animals or via fomites as well as through airborne transmission, with the latter being the most difficult to control. Here, we consider the risk of infection to flocks or herds from airborne virus emitted from a known infected premises. We show that airborne infection can be predicted quickly and with a good degree of accuracy, provided that the source of virus emission has been determined and reliable geo-referenced herd data are available. A simple model provides a reliable tool for estimating risk from known sources and for prioritizing surveillance and detection efforts. The issue of data information management systems was highlighted as a lesson to be learned from the official inquiry into the UK 2007 foot-and-mouth outbreak: results here suggest that the efficacy of disease control measures could be markedly improved through an accurate livestock database incorporating flock/herd size and location, which would enable tactical as well as strategic modelling.

  17. HAND-FOOT-AND-MOUTH DISEASE EPIDEMIOLOGICAL STATUS AND RELATIONSHIP WITH METEOROLOGICAL VARIABLES IN GUANGZHOU, SOUTHERN CHINA, 2008-2012

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tiegang Li

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Hand-foot-and-mouth disease (HFMD is becoming one of the extremely common airborne and contact transmission diseases in Guangzhou, southern China, leading public health authorities to be concerned about its increased incidence. In this study, it was used an ecological study plus the negative binomial regression to identify the epidemic status of HFMD and its relationship with meteorological variables. During 2008-2012, a total of 173,524 HFMD confirmed cases were reported, 12 cases of death, yielding a fatality rate of 0.69 per 10,000. The annual incidence rates from 2008 to 2012 were 60.56, 132.44, 311.40, 402.76, and 468.59 (per 100,000, respectively, showing a rapid increasing trend. Each 1 °C rise in temperature corresponded to an increase of 9.47% (95% CI 9.36% to 9.58% in the weekly number of HFMD cases, while a one hPa rise in atmospheric pressure corresponded to a decrease in the number of cases by 7.53% (95% CI -7.60% to -7.45%. Similarly, each one percent rise in relative humidity corresponded to an increase of 1.48% or 3.3%, and a one meter per hour rise in wind speed corresponded to an increase of 2.18% or 4.57%, in the weekly number of HFMD cases, depending on the variables considered in the model. These findings revealed that epidemic status of HFMD in Guangzhou is characterized by high morbidity but low fatality. Weather factors had a significant influence on the incidence of HFMD.

  18. Hand-foot-and-mouth disease epidemiological status and relationship with meteorological variables in Guangzhou, southern China, 2008-2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Tiegang; Yang, Zhicong; Liu, Xiangyi; Kang, Yan; Wang, Ming

    2014-01-01

    Hand-foot-and-mouth disease (HFMD) is becoming one of the extremely common airborne and contact transmission diseases in Guangzhou, southern China, leading public health authorities to be concerned about its increased incidence. In this study, it was used an ecological study plus the negative binomial regression to identify the epidemic status of HFMD and its relationship with meteorological variables. During 2008-2012, a total of 173,524 HFMD confirmed cases were reported, 12 cases of death, yielding a fatality rate of 0.69 per 10,000. The annual incidence rates from 2008 to 2012 were 60.56, 132.44, 311.40, 402.76, and 468.59 (per 100,000), respectively, showing a rapid increasing trend. Each 1 °C rise in temperature corresponded to an increase of 9.47% (95% CI 9.36% to 9.58%) in the weekly number of HFMD cases, while a one hPa rise in atmospheric pressure corresponded to a decrease in the number of cases by 7.53% (95% CI -7.60% to -7.45%). Similarly, each one percent rise in relative humidity corresponded to an increase of 1.48% or 3.3%, and a one meter per hour rise in wind speed corresponded to an increase of 2.18% or 4.57%, in the weekly number of HFMD cases, depending on the variables considered in the model. These findings revealed that epidemic status of HFMD in Guangzhou is characterized by high morbidity but low fatality. Weather factors had a significant influence on the incidence of HFMD.

  19. Foot and mouth disease in turkey and middle eastern countries: Epizootiological situation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stanojević Slavoljub

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Periodic outbreaks of epizooties of foot-and-mouth disease in countries of the Middle East and Africa pose a serious health threat to European states, in particular countries of the Mediterranean region and the Balkan peninsula. There are multiple reasons for the frequent appearance of this disease in Africa and the territory of the Middle East, and they are all a consequence of the insufficient development of the states in these geographic regions. More precisely, epizooties of foot-and-mouth disease are difficult to control in these regions due to the limited possibilities for activities by veterinary services, insufficiently developed diagnostic capacities for speedy and precise laboratory diagnostics, the lack of more advanced knowledge among the village populations, and the traditional manner of breeding ruminants. As a result of intensive traffic in goods, services and people, the cultural and tourist links between the Middle East and European countries, there is a constant and real danger of a swift and uncontrolled spreading of foot-and-mouth disease to the territory of Europe. This is why it is a priority of epizootiological services of the majority of European countries constantly to monitor the epizootiological situation in the Middle East and in Africa.

  20. Characterisation of foot-and-mouth disease virus strains circulating in Turkey during 1996-2004

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Parlak, Ü.; Özyörük, F.; Knowles, N.J.

    2007-01-01

    Two genotypes of foot-and-mouth disease virus serotype A were identified as the cause of disease outbreaks in Turkey during 1996-2004, while serotype O strains, identified during the same period, seem to represent an evolutionary continuum, and Asia1 strains were only rarely identified. The data...... genotypes. It is suggested that further studies to reveal the nature of the difference in epidemiological dynamics of type A and type O strains might lead to an understanding of the measures required to control foot-and-mouth disease in islands of persistent circulation....

  1. Seroprevalence of foot-and-mouth disease in goats from ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A cross-sectional study was conducted to determine the level of exposure to the South African Territories (SAT) serotypes (SAT1, SAT2 and SAT3) of the foot and mouth disease virus (FMDV) of apparently healthy, unvaccinated indigenous goats from four selected districts of Matabeleland South Province in Zimbabwe.

  2. 75 FR 54589 - Availability of an Environmental Assessment for Field Testing Foot-and-Mouth Disease Vaccine...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-09-08

    ...] Availability of an Environmental Assessment for Field Testing Foot-and-Mouth Disease Vaccine, Live Adenovirus... unlicensed foot-and-mouth disease vaccine, live adenovirus vector. The EA, which is based on a risk analysis... testing following the close of the comment period for this notice unless new substantial issues bearing on...

  3. Characterizing the reproduction number of epidemics with early subexponential growth dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chowell, Gerardo; Viboud, Cécile; Simonsen, Lone; Moghadas, Seyed M

    2016-10-01

    Early estimates of the transmission potential of emerging and re-emerging infections are increasingly used to inform public health authorities on the level of risk posed by outbreaks. Existing methods to estimate the reproduction number generally assume exponential growth in case incidence in the first few disease generations, before susceptible depletion sets in. In reality, outbreaks can display subexponential (i.e. polynomial) growth in the first few disease generations, owing to clustering in contact patterns, spatial effects, inhomogeneous mixing, reactive behaviour changes or other mechanisms. Here, we introduce the generalized growth model to characterize the early growth profile of outbreaks and estimate the effective reproduction number, with no need for explicit assumptions about the shape of epidemic growth. We demonstrate this phenomenological approach using analytical results and simulations from mechanistic models, and provide validation against a range of empirical disease datasets. Our results suggest that subexponential growth in the early phase of an epidemic is the rule rather the exception. Mechanistic simulations show that slight modifications to the classical susceptible-infectious-removed model result in subexponential growth, and in turn a rapid decline in the reproduction number within three to five disease generations. For empirical outbreaks, the generalized-growth model consistently outperforms the exponential model for a variety of directly and indirectly transmitted diseases datasets (pandemic influenza, measles, smallpox, bubonic plague, cholera, foot-and-mouth disease, HIV/AIDS and Ebola) with model estimates supporting subexponential growth dynamics. The rapid decline in effective reproduction number predicted by analytical results and observed in real and synthetic datasets within three to five disease generations contrasts with the expectation of invariant reproduction number in epidemics obeying exponential growth. The

  4. Characterizing the reproduction number of epidemics with early subexponential growth dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viboud, Cécile; Simonsen, Lone; Moghadas, Seyed M.

    2016-01-01

    Early estimates of the transmission potential of emerging and re-emerging infections are increasingly used to inform public health authorities on the level of risk posed by outbreaks. Existing methods to estimate the reproduction number generally assume exponential growth in case incidence in the first few disease generations, before susceptible depletion sets in. In reality, outbreaks can display subexponential (i.e. polynomial) growth in the first few disease generations, owing to clustering in contact patterns, spatial effects, inhomogeneous mixing, reactive behaviour changes or other mechanisms. Here, we introduce the generalized growth model to characterize the early growth profile of outbreaks and estimate the effective reproduction number, with no need for explicit assumptions about the shape of epidemic growth. We demonstrate this phenomenological approach using analytical results and simulations from mechanistic models, and provide validation against a range of empirical disease datasets. Our results suggest that subexponential growth in the early phase of an epidemic is the rule rather the exception. Mechanistic simulations show that slight modifications to the classical susceptible–infectious–removed model result in subexponential growth, and in turn a rapid decline in the reproduction number within three to five disease generations. For empirical outbreaks, the generalized-growth model consistently outperforms the exponential model for a variety of directly and indirectly transmitted diseases datasets (pandemic influenza, measles, smallpox, bubonic plague, cholera, foot-and-mouth disease, HIV/AIDS and Ebola) with model estimates supporting subexponential growth dynamics. The rapid decline in effective reproduction number predicted by analytical results and observed in real and synthetic datasets within three to five disease generations contrasts with the expectation of invariant reproduction number in epidemics obeying exponential growth. The

  5. Quantification of Foot-and-mouth Disease Virus Transmission Rates Using Published Data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Goris, N.E.; Eble, P.L.; Jong, de M.C.M.; Clercq, K.

    2009-01-01

    Foot-and-mouth disease is an extremely infectious and devastating disease affecting all species of cloven-hoofed animals. To understand the epidemiology of the causative virus and predict viral transmission dynamics, quantified transmission parameters are essential to decision makers and modellers

  6. Obesity and kidney disease: hidden consequences of the epidemic ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Obesity has become a worldwide epidemic, and its prevalence has been projected to grow by 40% in the next decade. This increasing prevalence has implications for the risk of diabetes, cardiovascular disease and also for Chronic Kidney Disease. A high body mass index is one of the strongest risk factors for new-onset ...

  7. Epidemic Intelligence. Langmuir and the Birth of Disease Surveillance

    OpenAIRE

    Lyle Fearnley

    2010-01-01

    In the wake of the SARS and influenza epidemics of the past decade, one public health solution has become a refrain: surveillance systems for detection of disease outbreaks. This paper is an effort to understand how disease surveillance for outbreak detection gained such paramount rationality in contemporary public health. The epidemiologist Alexander Langmuir is well known as the creator of modern disease surveillance. But less well known is how he imagined disease surveillance as one part o...

  8. Optimal sampling strategies for detecting zoonotic disease epidemics.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jake M Ferguson

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The early detection of disease epidemics reduces the chance of successful introductions into new locales, minimizes the number of infections, and reduces the financial impact. We develop a framework to determine the optimal sampling strategy for disease detection in zoonotic host-vector epidemiological systems when a disease goes from below detectable levels to an epidemic. We find that if the time of disease introduction is known then the optimal sampling strategy can switch abruptly between sampling only from the vector population to sampling only from the host population. We also construct time-independent optimal sampling strategies when conducting periodic sampling that can involve sampling both the host and the vector populations simultaneously. Both time-dependent and -independent solutions can be useful for sampling design, depending on whether the time of introduction of the disease is known or not. We illustrate the approach with West Nile virus, a globally-spreading zoonotic arbovirus. Though our analytical results are based on a linearization of the dynamical systems, the sampling rules appear robust over a wide range of parameter space when compared to nonlinear simulation models. Our results suggest some simple rules that can be used by practitioners when developing surveillance programs. These rules require knowledge of transition rates between epidemiological compartments, which population was initially infected, and of the cost per sample for serological tests.

  9. Optimal sampling strategies for detecting zoonotic disease epidemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferguson, Jake M; Langebrake, Jessica B; Cannataro, Vincent L; Garcia, Andres J; Hamman, Elizabeth A; Martcheva, Maia; Osenberg, Craig W

    2014-06-01

    The early detection of disease epidemics reduces the chance of successful introductions into new locales, minimizes the number of infections, and reduces the financial impact. We develop a framework to determine the optimal sampling strategy for disease detection in zoonotic host-vector epidemiological systems when a disease goes from below detectable levels to an epidemic. We find that if the time of disease introduction is known then the optimal sampling strategy can switch abruptly between sampling only from the vector population to sampling only from the host population. We also construct time-independent optimal sampling strategies when conducting periodic sampling that can involve sampling both the host and the vector populations simultaneously. Both time-dependent and -independent solutions can be useful for sampling design, depending on whether the time of introduction of the disease is known or not. We illustrate the approach with West Nile virus, a globally-spreading zoonotic arbovirus. Though our analytical results are based on a linearization of the dynamical systems, the sampling rules appear robust over a wide range of parameter space when compared to nonlinear simulation models. Our results suggest some simple rules that can be used by practitioners when developing surveillance programs. These rules require knowledge of transition rates between epidemiological compartments, which population was initially infected, and of the cost per sample for serological tests.

  10. Antigenic variation of foot-and-mouth disease virus serotype A

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A.B. Ludi (A.); D.L. Horton; Y. Li (Y.); M. Mahapatra (M.); D.P. King (D.); N.J. Knowles (N.); C.A. Russell (Colin); J.H. Paton; J.L.N. Wood; D.J. Smith (Derek James); J.M. Hammond (J.)

    2014-01-01

    textabstractThe current measures to control foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) include vaccination, movement control and slaughter of infected or susceptible animals. One of the difficulties in controlling FMD by vaccination arises due to the substantial diversity found among the seven serotypes of FMD

  11. A hybrid modelling approach to simulating foot-and-mouth disease outbreaks in Australian livestock

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard A Bradhurst

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD is a highly contagious and economically important viral disease of cloven-hoofed animals. Australia's freedom from FMD underpins a valuable trade in live animals and animal products. An outbreak of FMD would result in the loss of export markets and cause severe disruption to domestic markets. The prevention of, and contingency planning for, FMD are of key importance to government, industry, producers and the community. The spread and control of FMD is complex and dynamic due to a highly contagious multi-host pathogen operating in a heterogeneous environment across multiple jurisdictions. Epidemiological modelling is increasingly being recognized as a valuable tool for investigating the spread of disease under different conditions and the effectiveness of control strategies. Models of infectious disease can be broadly classified as: population-based models that are formulated from the top-down and employ population-level relationships to describe individual-level behaviour, individual-based models that are formulated from the bottom-up and aggregate individual-level behaviour to reveal population-level relationships, or hybrid models which combine the two approaches into a single model.The Australian Animal Disease Spread (AADIS hybrid model employs a deterministic equation-based model (EBM to model within-herd spread of FMD, and a stochastic, spatially-explicit agent-based model (ABM to model between-herd spread and control. The EBM provides concise and computationally efficient predictions of herd prevalence and clinical signs over time. The ABM captures the complex, stochastic and heterogeneous environment in which an FMD epidemic operates. The AADIS event-driven hybrid EBM/ABM architecture is a flexible, efficient and extensible framework for modelling the spread and control of disease in livestock on a national scale. We present an overview of the AADIS hybrid approach and a description of the model

  12. Farmers' intentions to implement foot and mouth disease control measures in Ethiopia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jemberu, Wudu T.; Mourits, M. C M; Hogeveen, H.

    2015-01-01

    The objectives of this study were to explore farmers' intentions to implement foot and mouth disease (FMD) control in Ethiopia, and to identify perceptions about the disease and its control measures that influence these intentions using the Health Belief Model (HBM) framework. Data were collected

  13. Overcrowding and disease epidemics in colonial Lagos: rethinking ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Thus, it degenerated to overcrowding and disease epidemics as epitomised by the outbreak of tuberculosis and bubonic plague in 1919 and between 1924 and 1930 respectively. The paper, therefore, concludes that with the available evidence at our disposal, it is obvious that the road and railway were constructed to ...

  14. Global Foot-and-Mouth Disease Research Update and Gap Analysis: 3 - Vaccines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, L; Knight-Jones, T J D; Charleston, B; Rodriguez, L L; Gay, C G; Sumption, K J; Vosloo, W

    2016-06-01

    This study assessed research knowledge gaps in the field of FMDV (foot-and-mouth disease virus) vaccines. The study took the form of a literature review (2011-15) combined with research updates collected in 2014 from 33 institutes from across the world. Findings were used to identify priority areas for future FMD vaccine research. Vaccines play a vital role in FMD control, used both to limit the spread of the virus during epidemics in FMD-free countries and as the mainstay of disease management in endemic regions, particularly where sanitary controls are difficult to apply. Improvements in the performance or cost-effectiveness of FMD vaccines will allow more widespread and efficient disease control. FMD vaccines have changed little in recent decades, typically produced by inactivation of whole virus, the quantity and stability of the intact viral capsids in the final preparation being key for immunogenicity. However, these are exciting times and several promising novel FMD vaccine candidates have recently been developed. This includes the first FMD vaccine licensed for manufacture and use in the USA; this adenovirus-vectored FMD vaccine causes in vivo expression of viral capsids in vaccinated animals. Another promising vaccine candidate comprises stabilized empty FMDV capsids produced in vitro in a baculovirus expression system. Recombinant technologies are also being developed to improve otherwise conventionally produced inactivated vaccines, for example, by creating a chimeric vaccine virus to increase capsid stability and by inserting sequences into the vaccine virus for desired antigen expression. Other important areas of ongoing research include enhanced adjuvants, vaccine quality control procedures and predicting vaccine protection from immune correlates, thus reducing dependency on animal challenge studies. Globally, the degree of independent vaccine evaluation is highly variable, and this is essential for vaccine quality. Previously neglected, the

  15. Immunity of foot-and-mouth disease serotype Asia 1 by sublingual vaccination.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hao-tai Chen

    Full Text Available Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV causes vesicular disease of cloven-hoofed animals, with severe agricultural and economic losses. Here we present study using a sublingual (SL route with the killed serotype Asia 1 FMDV vaccine. Guinea pigs were vaccinated using a commercially available vaccine formulation at the manufacturer's recommended full, 1/4, and 1/16 antigen doses. Animals were challenged with homologous FMDV Asia1 strain at various times following vaccination. All control guinea pigs exhibited clinical disease, including fever, viremia, and lesions, specifically vesicle formation in feet. Animals vaccinated with the 1/16 and 1/4 doses were protected after challenge at days 7, 28, and 35 post vaccination. These data suggest that effective protection against foot-and-mouth disease can be achieved with 1/16 of the recommended vaccine dose using SL vaccination, indicating that the sublingual route is an attractive alternative for the administration of the FMDV vaccine.

  16. Optimal information dissemination strategy to promote preventive behaviors in multilayer epidemic networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shakeri, Heman; Sahneh, Faryad Darabi; Scoglio, Caterina; Poggi-Corradini, Pietro; Preciado, Victor M

    2015-06-01

    Launching a prevention campaign to contain the spread of infection requires substantial financial investments; therefore, a trade-off exists between suppressing the epidemic and containing costs. Information exchange among individuals can occur as physical contacts (e.g., word of mouth, gatherings), which provide inherent possibilities of disease transmission, and non-physical contacts (e.g., email, social networks), through which information can be transmitted but the infection cannot be transmitted. Contact network (CN) incorporates physical contacts, and the information dissemination network (IDN) represents non-physical contacts, thereby generating a multilayer network structure. Inherent differences between these two layers cause alerting through CN to be more effective but more expensive than IDN. The constraint for an epidemic to die out derived from a nonlinear Perron-Frobenius problem that was transformed into a semi-definite matrix inequality and served as a constraint for a convex optimization problem. This method guarantees a dying-out epidemic by choosing the best nodes for adopting preventive behaviors with minimum monetary resources. Various numerical simulations with network models and a real-world social network validate our method.

  17. Simple decision tools to help optimize the control strategy 2 weeks into a Danish FMD epidemic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Willeberg, Preben; Hisham Beshara Halasa, Tariq; Boklund, Anette

    2012-01-01

    The choice of whether or not to apply emergency vaccination is one of the most difficult decisions facing the authorities when foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) breaks out in a free country (Barnett et al. 2002). A simple quantitative tool has been proposed using the first 14-days incidence (FFI...... detected after day 14, the epidemic duration after day 14 and the size of the affected region at the end of the epidemic. Statistically significant positive correlations were found in all regression analyses of the data. There was, however, a high degree of variation (Fig. 1), which is to be expected...... to estimate predictive values by applying selected cut-off- values for both the dependent and the independent variables (Table 1). Emergency vaccination should be considered during an outbreak if the predicted cumulative size, duration or cost of the epidemic appears alarming (EU 2003, Kitching et al. 2005...

  18. Sero-prevalence status of foot and mouth disease in the North ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    and South Gondar zones of North Western Amhara Regional State, Ethiopia to determine the ... sero-prevalence of foot and mouth disease in cattle at the North and South Gondar zones was ..... Coetzer, W., Thomson, R. and Tustin, C., 1994.

  19. Food system consequences of a fungal disease epidemic in a major crop.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Godfray, H Charles J; Mason-D'Croz, Daniel; Robinson, Sherman

    2016-12-05

    Fungal diseases are major threats to the most important crops upon which humanity depends. Were there to be a major epidemic that severely reduced yields, its effects would spread throughout the globalized food system. To explore these ramifications, we use a partial equilibrium economic model of the global food system (IMPACT) to study a hypothetical severe but short-lived epidemic that reduces rice yields in the countries affected by 80%. We modelled a succession of epidemic scenarios of increasing severity, starting with the disease in a single country in southeast Asia and ending with the pathogen present in most of eastern Asia. The epidemic and subsequent crop losses led to substantially increased global rice prices. However, as long as global commodity trade was unrestricted and able to respond fast enough, the effects on individual calorie consumption were, to a large part, mitigated. Some of the worse effects were projected to be experienced by poor net-rice importing countries in sub-Saharan Africa, which were not affected directly by the disease but suffered because of higher rice prices. We critique the assumptions of our models and explore political economic pressures to restrict trade at times of crisis. We finish by arguing for the importance of 'stress-testing' the resilience of the global food system to crop disease and other shocks.This article is part of the themed issue 'Tackling emerging fungal threats to animal health, food security and ecosystem resilience'. © 2016 The Author(s).

  20. Cross-protective efficacy of engineering serotype A foot-and-mouth disease virus vaccine against the two pandemic strains in swine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Haixue; Lian, Kaiqi; Yang, Fan; Jin, Ye; Zhu, Zixiang; Guo, Jianhong; Cao, Weijun; Liu, Huanan; He, Jijun; Zhang, Keshan; Li, Dan; Liu, Xiangtao

    2015-10-26

    Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious vesicular disease that affects domestic and wild cloven-hoofed animals worldwide. Recently, a series of outbreaks of type A FMDV occurred in Southeast Asian countries, China, the Russia Federation, Mongolia, Kazakhstan and South Korea. The FMD virus (A/GDMM/CHA/2013) from China's Guangdong province (2013) is representative of those responsible for the latest epidemic, and has low amino acid identity (93.9%) in VP1 protein with the epidemic strain A/WH/CHA/09 from Wuhan, China in 2009. Both of isolates belong to the Sea-97 genotype of ASIA topotype. Therefore, the application of a new vaccine strain with cross-protective efficacy is of fundamental importance to control the spread of the two described pandemic strains. A chimeric strain rA/P1-FMDV constructed by our lab previously through replacing the P1 gene in the vaccine strain O/CHA/99 with that from the epidemic stain A/WH/CHA/09, has been demonstrated to exhibit good growth characteristics in culture, and the rA/P1-FMDV inactivated vaccine can provide protection against epidemic strain A/WH/CHA/09 in cattle. However, it is still unclear whether the vaccine produces efficient protection against the new pandemic strain (A/GDMM/CHA/2013). Here, vaccine matching and pig 50% protective dose (PD50) tests were performed to assess the vaccine potency. The vaccine matching test showed cross-reactivity of sera from full dose vaccine vaccinated pigs with A/WH/CHA/09 and A/GDMM/CHA/2013 isolates, with average r1 values of 0.94±0.12 and 0.68±0.06 (r1≥0.3), which indicates that the rA/P1-FMDV vaccine is likely to confer good cross-protection against the two isolates. When challenged with two pandemic isolates A/WH/CHA/09 and A/GDMM/CHA/2013 strain, the vaccine achieved 12.51 PD50 and 10.05 PD50 per dose (2.8μg), respectively. The results indicated that the rA/P1-FMDV inactivated vaccine could protect pigs against both A/WH/CHA/09 and A/GDMM/CHA/2013 pandemic isolates

  1. Cardiovascular disease: A Global Epidemic extending into Sub ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Background: Cardiovascular disease is a global epidemic; the prevalence is currently stable in the developed world but is on a rapid rise in the developing world particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa. It is the commonest cause of morbidity and mortality globally. Its victims are older in the developed world but younger in Africa ...

  2. Foot & Mouth Disease & Ulcerative/Vesicular Rule-outs: Challenges Encountered in Recent Outbreaks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hullinger, P

    2008-01-28

    Foot and mouth disease (FMD) is a highly infectious and contagious viral disease affecting bovidae (cattle, zebus, domestic buffaloes, yaks), sheep, goats, swine, all wild ruminants and suidae. Camelidae (camels, dromedaries, llamas, vicunas) have low susceptibility. Foot and mouth disease is caused by a RNS virus of the family Picornaviridae, genus Aphthovirus. There are seven immunologically distinct serotypes: A, O, C, SAT1, SAT2, SAT3, Asia 1. Foot and mouth disease causes significant economic loss both to countries who manage it as an endemic disease (with or without vaccination), as well as those FMD free countries which may become infected. The mortality rate is low in adult animals, but often higher in young due to myocarditis. Foot and mouth disease is endemic in parts of Asia, Africa, the Middle East and South America (sporadic outbreaks in free areas). The Office of International Epizootics (OIE), also referred to the World Organization for Animal Health maintains an official list of free countries and zones.1 The OIE Terrestrial Code (Chapter 2.2.10) provides detailed information on the categories of freedom that can be allocated to a country as well as guidelines for the surveillance for foot and mouth disease (Appendix 3.8.7). In short, countries may be completely free of FMD, free with vaccination or infected with foot and mouth disease virus (FMDV). Source of FMDV include incubating and clinically affected animals with virus present in breath, saliva, faeces, urine, milk and semen. In experimental settings virus has been detected in milk several days before the onset of clinical signs2. Additional sources of virus are meat and by-products in which pH has remained above 6.0 as well as persistently infected carrier animals. Carrier animals may include cattle and water buffalo; convalescent animals and exposed vaccinates (virus persists in the oropharynx for up to 30 months in cattle or longer in buffalo, 9 months in sheep). Pigs do not become carriers

  3. Predicting and controlling infectious disease epidemics using temporal networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masuda, Naoki; Holme, Petter

    2013-01-01

    Infectious diseases can be considered to spread over social networks of people or animals. Mainly owing to the development of data recording and analysis techniques, an increasing amount of social contact data with time stamps has been collected in the last decade. Such temporal data capture the dynamics of social networks on a timescale relevant to epidemic spreading and can potentially lead to better ways to analyze, forecast, and prevent epidemics. However, they also call for extended analysis tools for network epidemiology, which has, to date, mostly viewed networks as static entities. We review recent results of network epidemiology for such temporal network data and discuss future developments.

  4. Predicting Subnational Ebola Virus Disease Epidemic Dynamics from Sociodemographic Indicators.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Linda Valeri

    Full Text Available The recent Ebola virus disease (EVD outbreak in West Africa has spread wider than any previous human EVD epidemic. While individual-level risk factors that contribute to the spread of EVD have been studied, the population-level attributes of subnational regions associated with outbreak severity have not yet been considered.To investigate the area-level predictors of EVD dynamics, we integrated time series data on cumulative reported cases of EVD from the World Health Organization and covariate data from the Demographic and Health Surveys. We first estimated the early growth rates of epidemics in each second-level administrative district (ADM2 in Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia using exponential, logistic and polynomial growth models. We then evaluated how these growth rates, as well as epidemic size within ADM2s, were ecologically associated with several demographic and socio-economic characteristics of the ADM2, using bivariate correlations and multivariable regression models.The polynomial growth model appeared to best fit the ADM2 epidemic curves, displaying the lowest residual standard error. Each outcome was associated with various regional characteristics in bivariate models, however in stepwise multivariable models only mean education levels were consistently associated with a worse local epidemic.By combining two common methods-estimation of epidemic parameters using mathematical models, and estimation of associations using ecological regression models-we identified some factors predicting rapid and severe EVD epidemics in West African subnational regions. While care should be taken interpreting such results as anything more than correlational, we suggest that our approach of using data sources that were publicly available in advance of the epidemic or in real-time provides an analytic framework that may assist countries in understanding the dynamics of future outbreaks as they occur.

  5. Rescue of foot-and-mouth disease viruses that are pathogenic for cattle from preserved viral RNA samples

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Belsham, Graham; Jamal, Syed Muhammad; Tjørnehøj, Kirsten

    2011-01-01

    Background: Foot and mouth disease is an economically important disease of cloven-hoofed animals including cattle, sheep and pigs. It is caused by a picornavirus, foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV), which has a positive sense RNA genome which, when introduced into cells, can initiate virus...... replication. Principal Findings: A system has been developed to rescue infectious FMDV from RNA preparations generated from clinical samples obtained under experimental conditions and then applied to samples collected in the ‘‘field’’. Clinical samples from suspect cases of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) were...... obtained from within Pakistan and Afghanistan. The samples were treated to preserve the RNA and then transported to National Veterinary Institute, Lindholm, Denmark. Following RNA extraction, FMDV RNA was quantified by real-time RT-PCR and samples containing significant levels of FMDV RNA were introduced...

  6. Serotype Specificity of Antibodies against Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus in Cattle in Selected Districts in Uganda

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mwiine, F.N.; Ayebazibwe, C.; Olaho-Mukani, W.

    2010-01-01

    Uganda had an unusually large number of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) outbreaks in 2006, and all clinical reports were in cattle. A serological investigation was carried out to confirm circulating antibodies against foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) by ELISA for antibodies against non-structural......Uganda had an unusually large number of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) outbreaks in 2006, and all clinical reports were in cattle. A serological investigation was carried out to confirm circulating antibodies against foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) by ELISA for antibodies against non......-structural proteins and structural proteins. Three hundred and forty-nine cattle sera were collected from seven districts in Uganda, and 65% of these were found positive for antibodies against the non-structural proteins of FMDV. A subset of these samples were analysed for serotype specificity of the identified...... antibodies. High prevalences of antibodies against non-structural proteins and structural proteins of FMDV serotype O were demonstrated in herds with typical visible clinical signs of FMD, while prevalences were low in herds without clinical signs of FMD. Antibody titres were higher against serotype O than...

  7. The epidemiological characteristics of the 2007 foot-and-mouth disease epidemic in Sarpang and Zhemgang districts of Bhutan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dukpa, K; Robertson, I D; Ellis, T M

    2011-02-01

    This study was undertaken to compare the epidemiological characteristics of the 2007 foot-and-mouth disease outbreak in two districts of Sarpang and Zhemgang in Bhutan. Zhemgang district recorded a significantly higher cumulative incidence in all species (26.9%) as well as for cattle (29.3%) compared to Sarpang (6.5% and 7.4%, respectively). The case fatality for cattle in Zhemgang (14.1%) was significantly higher than in Sarpang (3.3%). A total of 404 cattle and 73 pigs died of FMD in Zhemgang, whereas only 21 cattle died in Sarpang. Although all four species were affected in Sarpang, no sheep or goats were affected in Zhemgang. Spatiotemporal analyses showed the existence of four significant clusters, a primary one in Sarpang and three secondary clusters in Zhemgang. The virus belonged to the PanAsia strain of the Middle-East South-Asia topotype (O serotype), and the strain was closely related to the PanAsia strain that circulated in Bhutan during the 2003/2004 outbreaks. The severity of FMD infection in Zhemgang district could be attributed to low vaccination coverage (36.5% in 2006 when compared to 87.6% in Sarpang), inadequate biosecurity, poor nursing care of the sick animals and delayed reporting to the livestock centre. This study highlights the ability of the PanAsia strain of the O serotype to cause unprecedented morbidity and mortality, especially in a naïve population. The study also highlights the benefits of maintaining good herd immunity in the susceptible population, through adequate vaccination coverage, to minimize the severity of infection and limit the spread of disease from infected to non-infected herds. © 2010 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

  8. Differential replication of foot-and-mouth disease viruses in mice determine lethality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adult C57BL/6J mice have been used to study foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) biology. In this work, two variants of an FMDV A/Arg/01 strain exhibiting differential pathogenicity in adult mice were identified and characterized: a non-lethal virus (A01NL) caused mild signs of disease, whereas a let...

  9. Multiplexed Molecular Assays for Rapid Rule-Out of Foot-and-Mouth Disease

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lenhoff, R; Naraghi-Arani, P; Thissen, J; Olivas, J; Carillo, C; Chinn, C; Rasmussen, M; Messenger, S; Suer, L; Smith, S M; Tammero, L; Vitalis, E; Slezak, T R; Hullinger, P J; Hindson, B J; Hietala, S; Crossley, B; Mcbride, M

    2007-06-26

    A nucleic acid-based multiplexed assay was developed that combines detection of foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) with rule-out assays for two other foreign animal diseases and four domestic animal diseases that cause vesicular or ulcerative lesions indistinguishable from FMDV infection in cattle, sheep and swine. The FMDV 'look-alike' diagnostic assay panel contains five PCR and twelve reverse transcriptase PCR (RT-PCR) signatures for a total of seventeen simultaneous PCR amplifications for seven diseases plus incorporating four internal assay controls. It was developed and optimized to amplify both DNA and RNA viruses simultaneously in a single tube and employs Luminex{trademark} liquid array technology. Assay development including selection of appropriate controls, a comparison of signature performance in single and multiplex testing against target nucleic acids, as well of limits of detection for each of the individual signatures is presented. While this assay is a prototype and by no means a comprehensive test for FMDV 'look-alike' viruses, an assay of this type is envisioned to have benefit to a laboratory network in routine surveillance and possibly for post-outbreak proof of freedom from foot-and-mouth disease.

  10. Engineering Foot-and-Mouth Disease Viruses with Improved Growth Properties for Vaccine Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Haixue; Guo, Jianhong; Jin, Ye; Yang, Fan; He, Jijun; Lv, Lv; Zhang, Kesan; Wu, Qiong; Liu, Xiangtao; Cai, Xuepeng

    2013-01-01

    Background No licensed vaccine is currently available against serotype A foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in China, despite the isolation of A/WH/CHA/09 in 2009, partly because this strain does not replicate well in baby hamster kidney (BHK) cells. Methodology/Principal Findings A novel plasmid-based reverse genetics system was used to construct a chimeric strain by replacing the P1 gene in the vaccine strain O/CHA/99 with that from the epidemic stain A/WH/CHA/09. The chimeric virus displayed growth kinetics similar to those of O/CHA/99 and was selected for use as a candidate vaccine strain after 12 passages in BHK cells. Cattle were vaccinated with the inactivated vaccine and humoral immune responses were induced in most of the animals on day 7. A challenge infection with A/WH/CHA/09 on day 28 indicated that the group given a 4-µg dose was fully protected and neither developed viremia nor seroconverted to a 3ABC antigen. Conclusions/Significance Our data demonstrate that the chimeric virus not only propagates well in BHK cells and has excellent antigenic matching against serotype A FMD, but is also a potential marker vaccine to distinguish infection from vaccination. These results suggest that reverse genetics technology is a useful tool for engineering vaccines for the prevention and control of FMD. PMID:23372840

  11. Metabolic profile of foot and mouth disease stressed sheep in semi arid region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sita R Gupta

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available The present study was designed to evaluate serum biochemical parameters in twenty local bred sheep infected with Foot-and-Mouth disease virus (FMDV serotype O. Ten healthy sheep were used as controls. Peripheral blood was collected from both diseased and control group and serum was separated which was further used to estimate the concentration of glucose, total protein, albumin, urea, calcium, phosphorus, cholesterol and activity of AST, ALT and ALP. It was found that there was a significant increase in glucose, AST and phosphorus in FMD affected sheep (p<0.01. Total protein, albumin, calcium, cholesterol and urea level were significantly lower (p<0.05 in FMD group compared to those in the control group. The biochemical alteration indicates the development of pancreatic dysfunction in Foot and Mouth disease affected sheep with FMDV serotype O.

  12. Introduction and use of ELISA-based technologies for the diagnosis and monitoring of foot-and-mouth disease in Hong Kong

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sims, L.D.; Dyrting, K.C.; Lo, W.C.; Wong, K.W.

    2000-01-01

    ELISA-based tests were introduced to assist in the diagnosis and control of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in Hong Kong. The tests were used to identify and type FMD viruses in clinical samples, to provide an assessment of the efficacy of vaccination programmes as practised, to train staff in ELISA technology and to strengthen quality assurance for foot-and-mouth disease and other diagnostic tests. These tests have provided the tools needed to understand why foot-and-mouth disease occurs in the face of vaccination - an essential step towards control of this disease in Hung Kong. (author)

  13. Preventing the Epidemic of Non-Communicable Diseases: An Overview

    OpenAIRE

    Robson , Anthony ,

    2013-01-01

    International audience; Diet, lifestyle and environment do not just affect a person's health, they also determine the health of their children and possibly the health of their grandchildren. Non-communicable disease is a global epidemic because of the combined effect of the modern diet (including drug abuse) and a sedentary lifestyle. A low energy dense, drug-free diet rich in bioavailable nutrients-plus-exercise is most effective for preventing non-communicable disease throughout life. Nanoc...

  14. Dynamics of a stochastic delayed SIR epidemic model with vaccination and double diseases driven by Lévy jumps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Qun; Jiang, Daqing; Shi, Ningzhong; Hayat, Tasawar

    2018-02-01

    In this paper, we study the dynamics of a stochastic delayed SIR epidemic model with vaccination and double diseases which make the research more complex. The environment variability in this paper is characterized by white noise and Lévy noise. We establish sufficient conditions for extinction and persistence in the mean of the two epidemic diseases. It is shown that: (i) time delay and Lévy noise have important effects on the persistence and extinction of epidemic diseases; (ii) two diseases can coexist under certain conditions.

  15. Foot-and-mouth disease control and eradication in the Bicol Surveillance Buffer Zone of the Philippines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Windsor, P A; Freeman, P G; Abila, R; Benigno, C; Verin, B; Nim, V; Cameron, A

    2011-10-01

    Following the onset of an epidemic of foot and mouth disease (FMD) commencing in 1994 and affecting mainly pigs in the Philippines, a National Plan for the Control and Eradication of the disease was initiated. A disease surveillance buffer zone in the southern Luzon region of Bicol was established to protect the Visayas and Mindanao from infection and enable eventual elimination of the disease in Luzon. With achievement of Office International Epizooties (OIE)-certified FMD freedom with vaccination in the Philippines now imminent, the four components of the disease control strategy are reviewed, including quarantine and animal movement controls, strategic vaccination, surveillance and disease investigation, and enhanced public awareness with school on the air radio programmes. Although numbers of outbreaks declined following widespread vaccination, evaluation of serological responses in vaccinates suggested low levels of immune protection. The cessation of outbreaks was considered more likely a result of animal movement controls, improved surveillance and emergency response capability, and reduction in FMD-risk behaviours by livestock owners, particularly through efforts to enhance public awareness of biosecurity measures by the training of traders, livestock industry personnel and both commercial and smallholder farmers. A two-stage random sampling serosurveillance strategy enabled identification of residual infection that was not detected through opportunistic sampling and negative incident reporting. Intensive investigations of FMD outbreaks, particularly in Albay province in 1999, enabled improved understanding of the risk factors involved in disease transmission and implementation of appropriate interventions. The findings from this review are offered to assist development of FMD control and eradication programmes in other countries in south-east Asia that are now being encouraged to support the OIE goal of FMD freedom with vaccination by 2020. © 2011

  16. Foot-and-mouth disease virus serotype SAT1 in cattle, Nigeria.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ehizibolo, D O; Haegeman, A; De Vleeschauwer, A R; Umoh, J U; Kazeem, H M; Okolocha, E C; Van Borm, S; De Clercq, K

    2017-06-01

    The knowledge of foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) dynamics and epidemiology in Nigeria and the West Africa subregion is important to support local and regional control plans and international risk assessment. Foot-and-mouth disease virus serotype South African territories (SAT)1 was isolated, identified and characterized from an FMD outbreak in cattle in Nigeria in 2015, 35 years after the last report of FMDV SAT1 in West Africa. The VP1 coding sequence of the Nigerian 2015 SAT1 isolates diverges from reported SAT1 topotypes resulting in a separate topotype. The reporting of a novel FMDV SAT1 strain in the virus pool 5 (West and Central Africa) highlights the dynamic and complex nature of FMDV in this region of Africa. Sustained surveillance is needed to understand the origin, the extent and distribution of this novel SAT1 topotype in the region as well as to detect and monitor the occurrence of (re-)emerging FMDV strains. © 2017 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

  17. Protection motivation theory and social distancing behaviour in response to a simulated infectious disease epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Lynn; Rasmussen, Susan; Kleczkowski, Adam; Maharaj, Savi; Cairns, Nicole

    2015-01-01

    Epidemics of respiratory infectious disease remain one of the most serious health risks facing the population. Non-pharmaceutical interventions (e.g. hand-washing or wearing face masks) can have a significant impact on the course of an infectious disease epidemic. The current study investigated whether protection motivation theory (PMT) is a useful framework for understanding social distancing behaviour (i.e. the tendency to reduce social contacts) in response to a simulated infectious disease epidemic. There were 230 participants (109 males, 121 females, mean age 32.4 years) from the general population who completed self-report measures assessing the components of PMT. In addition, participants completed a computer game which simulated an infectious disease epidemic in order to provide a measure of social distancing behaviour. The regression analyses revealed that none of the PMT variables were significant predictors of social distancing behaviour during the simulation task. However, fear (β = .218, p < .001), response efficacy (β = .175, p < .01) and self-efficacy (β = .251, p < .001) were all significant predictors of intention to engage in social distancing behaviour. Overall, the PMT variables (and demographic factors) explain 21.2% of the variance in intention. The findings demonstrated that PMT was a useful framework for understanding intention to engage in social distancing behaviour, but not actual behaviour during the simulated epidemic. These findings may reflect an intention-behaviour gap in relation to social distancing behaviour.

  18. Economic cost and burden of dengue during epidemics and non-epidemic years in Taiwan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dih-Ling Luh

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: Determining the disease and economic burden of dengue is critical for the allocation of public health resources. Several studies have used disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs to estimate the disease burden of dengue in different regions. However, there are no published studies discussing the estimates of dengue-related economic and disease burden specifically in Taiwan. Objectives: We assessed the economic cost and disease burden of dengue infections in Taiwan for the period 1998–2014, and compared these during epidemic and non-epidemic years. Methods: We estimated the annual DALYs per million population using the disability weights for dengue fever (DF, dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF, dengue shock syndrome (DSS, and death cases. Economic costs were estimated and divided into direct (medical costs and indirect costs (lost work days and caregiver fees. Results: For the period 1998–2014, a mean of 115.3 (range: 6.3–934.3 DALYs per million population annually were lost to dengue. In epidemic years, direct costs associated with dengue resulted mostly from hospitalization (86.09%, emergency (7.77%, outpatient (6.10%, and drug costs (0.03%. For indirect costs, lost productivity due to death (70.76% was the dominant contributor. Overall, the costs were 12.3 times higher in epidemic years than in non-epidemic years (Wilcoxon rank sum test, p < 0.05. Conclusions: This study is the first to evaluate the economic costs and disease burden of dengue infections for this period in Taiwan, and reveals significant differences in economic impact between epidemic and non-epidemic years. Keywords: Economic cost of disease, Disease burden, Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs, Dengue, Epidemic

  19. Foot-and-mouth disease in Asiatic black bears (Ursus thibetanus).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Officer, Kirsty; Lan, Nguyen Thi; Wicker, Leanne; Hoa, Nguyen Thi; Weegenaar, Annemarie; Robinson, Jill; Ryoji, Yamaguchi; Loukopoulos, Panayiotis

    2014-09-01

    Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious, debilitating, and globally significant viral disease typically affecting cloven-hoofed hosts. The diagnosis of FMD in bears in Vietnam is described. The current study describes a confirmed case of FMD in a bear species, and the clinical signs compatible with FMD in a Malayan sun bear. Thirteen Asiatic black bears (Ursus thibetanus) and 1 Malayan sun bear (Helarctos malayanus) were apparently affected. In August 2011, an adult bear became lethargic, and developed footpad vesicles. Over 15 days, 14 out of 17 bears developed similar signs; the remaining 3 co-housed bears and another 57 resident bears did not. All affected bears developed vesicles on all footpads, and most were lethargic for 24-48 hr. Nasal and oral lesions were noted in 6 and 3 cases, respectively. Within 1 month, all looked normal. Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) was detected by reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction, classified as serotype O, and isolated by virus isolation techniques. Phylogenetic analysis demonstrated clustering of 3 bear isolates, in a branch distinct from other FMDV type O isolates. The outbreak likely occurred due to indirect contact with livestock, and was facilitated by the high density of captive bears. It showed that Asiatic black bears are capable of contracting FMDV and developing clinical disease, and that the virus spreads easily between bears in close contact. © 2014 The Author(s).

  20. Serological Detection of Foot and Mouth Disease Virus (Fmdv) Sat 1 ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The prevalence of Foot and Mouth Disease virus (FMDV) serotypes SAT 1 and SAT 2 antibodies among Nigerian cattle was determined using complement fixation (CF) and neutralization tests (NT) in 2000 cattle sera obtained from nine northern states. The two serological tests were very specific and sensitive enough to ...

  1. Serological prevalence of foot and mouth disease in parts of Keffi ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... foot And Mouth disease in the herd commonly called “Boro” by the herdsmen. Screening procedure was based on antibodies detection for the non structural protein mainly 3ABC protein in bovine serum regardless of the serotype of FMD virus involved using Chekit-FMD-3ABC ELISA (Bommeli Diagnostics, South Africa).

  2. [Rash and fever illness caused by herpes simplex virus type 1 needs to be distinguished from hand, foot and mouth disease].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Shuang-Li; Liu, Jian-Feng; Sun, Qiang; Li, Jing; Li, Xiao-Lei; Zhang, Yong; Chen, Ying; Wen, Xiao-Yun; Yan, Dong-Mei; Huang, Guo-Hong; Zhang, Bao-Min; Zhang, Bo; An, Hong-Qiu; Li, Hui; Xu, Wen-Bo

    2013-06-01

    An epidemic of rash and fever illnesses suspected of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) occurred in Gansu Province of China in 2008, laboratory tests were performed in order to identify the pathogen that caused this epidemic. Eight clinical specimens collected from the 4 patients (each patient has throat swab and herpes fluid specimens) with rash and febrile illness, were inoculated onto RD and HEp-2 cells for virus isolation, and the viral nucleic acid was then extracted with the positive virus isolates, the dual-channel real-time reverse transcript-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) was performed to detect the nucleic acid of human enterovirus (HEV) in the viral isolates at the same time. For the viral isolates with the negative results of HEV, a sequence independent single primer amplification technique (SISPA) was used for "unknown pathogen" identification. Totally, 6 viral isolates were identified as herpes simplex virus type 1 (HSV-1). Comprehensive analyses results of the clinical manifestations of the patients, epidemiological findings and laboratory test indicated that this epidemic of rash and febrile illness was caused by HSV-1. The differences among the gG region of 6 HSV-1 isolates at nucleotide level and amino acid level were all small, and the identities were up to 98. 8% and 97.9%, respectively, showing that this outbreak was caused by only one viral transmission chain of HSV-1. HSV-1 and other viruses that cause rash and febrile illnesses need differential diagnosis with HFMD. The etiology of rash and febrile illness is sometimes difficult to distinguish from the clinical symptoms and epidemiological data, the laboratory diagnosis is therefore critical.

  3. Hand-foot-and-mouth disease and weather factors in Guangzhou, southern China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, T; Yang, Z; DI, B; Wang, M

    2014-08-01

    Hand-foot-and-mouth disease (HFMD) is becoming one of the common airborne and contact transmission diseases in Guangzhou, southern China, leading public health authorities to be concerned about its increased incidence. In this study, we aimed to examine the effect of weather patterns on the incidence of HFMD in the subtropical city of Guangzhou for the period 2009-2012, and assist public health prevention and control measures. A negative binomial multivariable regression was used to identify the relationship between meteorological variables and HFMD. During the study period, a total of 166,770 HFMD-confirmed cases were reported, of which 11 died, yielding a fatality rate of 0·66/10,000. Annual incidence rates from 2009 to 2012 were 132·44, 311·40, 402·76, and 468·59/100,000 respectively. Each 1°C rise in temperature corresponded to an increase of 9·38% (95% CI 8·17-10·51) in the weekly number of HFMD cases, while a 1 hPa rise in atmospheric pressure corresponded to a decrease in the number of cases by 6·80% (95% CI -6·99 to -6·65), having an opposite effect. Similarly, a 1% rise in relative humidity corresponded to an increase of 0·67% or 0·51%, a 1 m/h rise in wind velocity corresponded to an increase of 4·01% or 2·65%, and a 1 day addition in the number of windy days corresponded to an increase of 24·73% or 25·87%, in the weekly number of HFMD cases, depending on the variables considered in the model. Our findings revealed that the epidemic status of HFMD in Guangzhou is characterized by high morbidity but low fatality. Weather factors had a significant influence on occurrence and transmission of HFMD.

  4. Epidemic assistance by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention: role of the Epidemic Intelligence Service, 1946-2005.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thacker, Stephen B; Stroup, Donna F; Sencer, David J

    2011-12-01

    Since 1946, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has responded to urgent requests from US states, federal agencies, and international organizations through epidemic-assistance investigations (Epi-Aids). The authors describe the first 60 years of Epi-Aids, breadth of problems addressed, evolution of methodologies, scope of activities, and impact of investigations on population health. They reviewed Epi-Aid reports and EIS Bulletins, contacted current and former Epidemic Intelligence Service staff, and systematically searched the PubMed and Web of Science databases. They abstracted information on dates, location, staff involved, health problems, methods, and impacts of investigations according to a preplanned protocol. They assessed the methods presented as well as the quality of reports. During 1946-2005, a total of 4,484 investigations of health events were initiated by 2,815 Epidemic Intelligence Service officers. In the early years, the majority were in response to infectious agents, although environmental problems emerged. Investigations in subsequent years focused on occupational conditions, birth defects, reproductive health, tobacco use, cancer, violence, legal debate, and terrorism. These Epi-Aids heralded expansion of the agency's mission and presented new methods in statistics and epidemiology. Recommendations from Epi-Aids led to policy implementation, evaluation, or modification. Epi-Aids provide the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention with the agility to respond rapidly to public health crises.

  5. The Western Africa ebola virus disease epidemic exhibits both global exponential and local polynomial growth rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chowell, Gerardo; Viboud, Cécile; Hyman, James M; Simonsen, Lone

    2015-01-21

    While many infectious disease epidemics are initially characterized by an exponential growth in time, we show that district-level Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreaks in West Africa follow slower polynomial-based growth kinetics over several generations of the disease. We analyzed epidemic growth patterns at three different spatial scales (regional, national, and subnational) of the Ebola virus disease epidemic in Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia by compiling publicly available weekly time series of reported EVD case numbers from the patient database available from the World Health Organization website for the period 05-Jan to 17-Dec 2014. We found significant differences in the growth patterns of EVD cases at the scale of the country, district, and other subnational administrative divisions. The national cumulative curves of EVD cases in Guinea, Sierra Leone, and Liberia show periods of approximate exponential growth. In contrast, local epidemics are asynchronous and exhibit slow growth patterns during 3 or more EVD generations, which can be better approximated by a polynomial than an exponential function. The slower than expected growth pattern of local EVD outbreaks could result from a variety of factors, including behavior changes, success of control interventions, or intrinsic features of the disease such as a high level of clustering. Quantifying the contribution of each of these factors could help refine estimates of final epidemic size and the relative impact of different mitigation efforts in current and future EVD outbreaks.

  6. RABBIT POX : II. PATHOLOGY OF THE EPIDEMIC DISEASE.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greene, H S

    1934-09-30

    The lesions found in animals with epidemic rabbit pox have been described in this paper. The most distinctive gross lesion in all organs and tissues was the small nodule or papule which was found to consist of mononuclear infiltration and necrosis. Diffuse lesions were also found in which the infiltration was widespread and accompanied by edema, hemorrhage and extensive necrosis of affected tissues and organs. The possibility of the diffuse lesions being due to the action of secondary invaders was considered, but available evidence indicated that the different types, including pneumonia, represented reactions to a single causative agent. Moreover, an intimate relationship was observed to exist between lesions and small blood vessels in which primary endothelial damage was usually apparent. The degree of vascular damage generally corresponded to the extent of the lesion and it is probable that this in turn corresponded to the dose of the causative agent. The close analogy between the clinical manifestations and pathological processes of this disease in the rabbit and small pox in man led to the conclusion that the disease in the rabbit is essentially the same as small pox, and that it is probably produced by a virus closely related to the virus of small pox. Available evidence indicated that the infection originated in the Institute and that it spread in atypical form or masked by some other disease until it reached the breeding colony as a clearly defined epidemic infection.

  7. Epidemic Survivability: Characterizing Networks Under Epidemic-like Failure Propagation Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Manzano, Marc; Calle, Eusebi; Ripoll, Jordi

    2013-01-01

    Epidemics theory has been used in different contexts in order to describe the propagation of diseases, human interactions or natural phenomena. In computer science, virus spreading has been also characterized using epidemic models. Although in the past the use of epidemic models...... in telecommunication networks has not been extensively considered, nowadays, with the increasing computation capacity and complexity of operating systems of modern network devices (routers, switches, etc.), the study of possible epidemic-like failure scenarios must be taken into account. When epidemics occur......, such as in other multiple failure scenarios, identifying the level of vulnerability offered by a network is one of the main challenges. In this paper, we present epidemic survivability, a new network measure that describes the vulnerability of each node of a network under a specific epidemic intensity. Moreover...

  8. Foot and mouth disease virus in different host species; the effect of vaccination on transmission

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Orsel, K.

    2007-01-01

    Foot and mouth disease (FMD) is a contagious disease, affecting important livestock species like cattle, sheep and pigs. Therefore, FMD is listed as a notifiable disease to the Office International des Epizooties. The outbreaks of FMD in Europe in 2001 triggered the discussion about the use of

  9. No foot-and-mouth disease virus transmission between individually housed calves

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bouma, A.; Dekker, A.; Jong, de M.C.M.

    2004-01-01

    The foot-and-mouth disease outbreak in The Netherlands in 2001 most likely started on a mixed veal-calf/dairy-goat farm. The outbreak among the 74 calves on this farm appeared to be limited to four animals, and no clinical signs of FMD were reported. Also on a second veal-calf farm minor clinical

  10. [Establishment of chemiluminescent enzyme immunoassay for detecting antibodies against foot-and-mouth disease virus serotype O in swine].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cui, Chen; Huang, Ligang; Li, Jing; Zou, Xingqi; Zhu, Yuanyuan; Xie, Lei; Zhao, Qizu; Yang, Limin; Liu, Wenjun

    2016-11-25

    Recombinant structural protein VP1 of foot-and-mouth disease virus serotype O was expressed in Escherichia coli and then purified using Nickel affinity chromatography. A chemiluminescent enzyme immunoassay (CLEIA) method was established using the purified recombinant protein as coating antigen to detect antibody of foot-and-mouth disease virus serotype O in swine. The specificity of VP1-CLEIA method is 100%. The coefficients of variation in the plate and between plates are 1.10%-6.70% and 0.66%-4.80%, respectively. Comparing with the commercial indirect ELISA kit or liquid phase block ELISA kit, the calculated coincidence rate is 93.50% or 94.00%. The high specificity and stability suggested this detection method can be used to monitor the antibody level of foot-and-mouth disease virus serotype O in swine.

  11. Serological Evidence Indicates that Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus Serotype O, C and SAT1 are most Dominant in Eritrea

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tekleghiorghis, T.; Moormann, R.J.M.; Weerdmeester, K.; Dekker, A.

    2014-01-01

    Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is endemic in Eritrea and in most parts of Africa. To be able to control FMD using vaccination, information on the occurrence of various foot-and-mouth disease serotypes in Eritrea is needed. In this cross-sectional study, 212 sera samples were collected from FMD

  12. Immune Evasion During Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus (FMDV) Infection of Swine

    Science.gov (United States)

    The interface between successful pathogens and their hosts is often a tenuous balance. In acute viral infections, this involves induction and inhibition of innate responses. Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) is considered one of the most contagious viruses known and is characterized by rapid induc...

  13. JST Thesaurus Headwords and Synonyms: foot-and-mouth disease virus [MeCab user dictionary for science technology term[Archive

    Lifescience Database Archive (English)

    Full Text Available MeCab user dictionary for science technology term foot-and-mouth disease virus 名詞 一...般 * * * * 口蹄疫ウイルス コウテイエキウイルス コーテイエキウイルス Thesaurus2015 200906042443106740 C LS07 UNKNOWN_2 foot - and - mouth disease virus

  14. JST Thesaurus Headwords and Synonyms: foot‐and‐mouth disease virus [MeCab user dictionary for science technology term[Archive

    Lifescience Database Archive (English)

    Full Text Available MeCab user dictionary for science technology term foot‐and‐mouth disease virus 名詞 一...般 * * * * 口蹄疫ウイルス コウテイエキウイルス コーテイエキウイルス Thesaurus2015 200906042443106740 C LS07 UNKNOWN_2 foot ‐ and ‐ mouth disease virus

  15. Evaluation of Gaussia luciferase and foot-and-mouth disease virus 2A translational interrupter chimeras as polycistronic reporters for transgene expression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Puckette, Michael; Burrage, Thomas; Neilan, John G; Rasmussen, Max

    2017-06-12

    The Gaussia princeps luciferase is used as a stand-alone reporter of transgene expression for in vitro and in vivo expression systems due to the rapid and easy monitoring of luciferase activity. We sought to simultaneously quantitate production of other recombinant proteins by transcriptionally linking the Gaussia princeps luciferase gene to other genes of interest through the foot-and-mouth disease virus 2A translational interrupter sequence. We produced six plasmids, each encoding a single open reading frame, with the foot-and-mouth disease virus 2A sequence placed either N-terminal or C-terminal to the Gaussia princeps luciferase gene. Two plasmids included novel Gaussia princeps luciferase variants with the position 1 methionine deleted. Placing a foot-and-mouth disease virus 2A translational interrupter sequence on either the N- or C-terminus of the Gaussia princeps luciferase gene did not prevent the secretion or luminescence of resulting chimeric luciferase proteins. We also measured the ability of another polycistronic plasmid vector with a 2A-luciferase sequence placed downstream of the foot-and-mouth disease virus P1 and 3C protease genes to produce of foot-and-mouth disease virus-like particles and luciferase activity from transfected cells. Incorporation of the 2A-luciferase sequence into a transgene encoding foot-and-mouth disease virus structural proteins retained luciferase activity and the ability to form virus-like particles. We demonstrated a mechanism for the near real-time, sequential, non-destructive quantitative monitoring of transcriptionally-linked recombinant proteins and a valuable method for monitoring transgene expression in recombinant vaccine constructs.

  16. Implementation and validation of an economic module in the Be-FAST model to predict costs generated by livestock disease epidemics: Application to classical swine fever epidemics in Spain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernández-Carrión, E; Ivorra, B; Martínez-López, B; Ramos, A M; Sánchez-Vizcaíno, J M

    2016-04-01

    Be-FAST is a computer program based on a time-spatial stochastic spread mathematical model for studying the transmission of infectious livestock diseases within and between farms. The present work describes a new module integrated into Be-FAST to model the economic consequences of the spreading of classical swine fever (CSF) and other infectious livestock diseases within and between farms. CSF is financially one of the most damaging diseases in the swine industry worldwide. Specifically in Spain, the economic costs in the two last CSF epidemics (1997 and 2001) reached jointly more than 108 million euros. The present analysis suggests that severe CSF epidemics are associated with significant economic costs, approximately 80% of which are related to animal culling. Direct costs associated with control measures are strongly associated with the number of infected farms, while indirect costs are more strongly associated with epidemic duration. The economic model has been validated with economic information around the last outbreaks in Spain. These results suggest that our economic module may be useful for analysing and predicting economic consequences of livestock disease epidemics. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  17. Global foot-and-mouth disease research update and gap analysis: 6 - immunology

    Science.gov (United States)

    In 2014, the Global Foot-and-mouth disease Research Alliance (GFRA) conducted a gap analysis of FMD research. This has been updated with findings reported in a series of papers. Here we present findings for FMD immunology research. The paper consists of the following four sections: 1. Research prior...

  18. A chaotic model for the epidemic of Ebola virus disease in West Africa (2013-2016)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mangiarotti, Sylvain; Peyre, Marisa; Huc, Mireille

    2016-11-01

    An epidemic of Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) broke out in Guinea in December 2013. It was only identified in March 2014 while it had already spread out in Liberia and Sierra Leone. The spill over of the disease became uncontrollable and the epidemic could not be stopped before 2016. The time evolution of this epidemic is revisited here with the global modeling technique which was designed to obtain the deterministic models from single time series. A generalized formulation of this technique for multivariate time series is introduced. It is applied to the epidemic of EVD in West Africa focusing on the period between March 2014 and January 2015, that is, before any detected signs of weakening. Data gathered by the World Health Organization, based on the official publications of the Ministries of Health of the three main countries involved in this epidemic, are considered in our analysis. Two observed time series are used: the daily numbers of infections and deaths. A four-dimensional model producing a very complex dynamical behavior is obtained. The model is tested in order to investigate its skills and drawbacks. Our global analysis clearly helps to distinguish three main stages during the epidemic. A characterization of the obtained attractor is also performed. In particular, the topology of the chaotic attractor is analyzed and a skeleton is obtained for its structure.

  19. Global foot-and-mouth disease research update and gap analysis: 3 - vaccines

    Science.gov (United States)

    In 2014, the Global Foot-and-mouth disease Research Alliance (GFRA) conducted a gap analysis of FMD research. In this paper, we report updated findings in the field of FMD vaccine research. This paper consists of the following four sections: 1) Research priorities identified in the 2010 GFRA gap ana...

  20. Disease Extinction Versus Persistence in Discrete-Time Epidemic Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van den Driessche, P; Yakubu, Abdul-Aziz

    2018-04-12

    We focus on discrete-time infectious disease models in populations that are governed by constant, geometric, Beverton-Holt or Ricker demographic equations, and give a method for computing the basic reproduction number, [Formula: see text]. When [Formula: see text] and the demographic population dynamics are asymptotically constant or under geometric growth (non-oscillatory), we prove global asymptotic stability of the disease-free equilibrium of the disease models. Under the same demographic assumption, when [Formula: see text], we prove uniform persistence of the disease. We apply our theoretical results to specific discrete-time epidemic models that are formulated for SEIR infections, cholera in humans and anthrax in animals. Our simulations show that a unique endemic equilibrium of each of the three specific disease models is asymptotically stable whenever [Formula: see text].

  1. Aerosol transmission of foot-and-mouth disease virus Asia-1 under experimental conditions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Colenutt, C.; Gonzales, J.L.; Paton, D.J.; Gloster, J.; Nelson, N.; Sanders, C.

    2016-01-01

    Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) control measures rely on understanding of virus transmission mechanisms. Direct contact between naïve and infected animals or spread by contaminated fomites is prevented by quarantines and rigorous decontamination procedures during outbreaks. Transmission of

  2. Epidemic typhus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bechah, Yassina; Capo, Christian; Mege, Jean-Louis; Raoult, Didier

    2008-07-01

    Epidemic typhus is transmitted to human beings by the body louse Pediculus humanus corporis. The disease is still considered a major threat by public-health authorities, despite the efficacy of antibiotics, because poor sanitary conditions are conducive to louse proliferation. Until recently, Rickettsia prowazekii, the causal agent, was thought to be confined to human beings and their body lice. Since 1975, R prowazekii infection in human beings has been related to contact with the flying squirrel Glaucomys volans in the USA. Moreover, Brill-Zinsser disease, a relapsed form of epidemic typhus that appears as sporadic cases many years after the initial infection, is unrelated to louse infestation. Stress or a waning immune system are likely to reactivate this earlier persistent infection, which could be the source of new epidemics when conditions facilitate louse infestation. Finally, R prowazekii is a potential category B bioterrorism agent, because it is stable in dried louse faeces and can be transmitted through aerosols. An increased understanding of the pathogenesis of epidemic typhus may be useful for protection against this bacterial threat.

  3. Epidemic Wave Dynamics Attributable to Urban Community Structure: A Theoretical Characterization of Disease Transmission in a Large Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eggo, Rosalind M; Lenczner, Michael

    2015-01-01

    Background Multiple waves of transmission during infectious disease epidemics represent a major public health challenge, but the ecological and behavioral drivers of epidemic resurgence are poorly understood. In theory, community structure—aggregation into highly intraconnected and loosely interconnected social groups—within human populations may lead to punctuated outbreaks as diseases progress from one community to the next. However, this explanation has been largely overlooked in favor of temporal shifts in environmental conditions and human behavior and because of the difficulties associated with estimating large-scale contact patterns. Objective The aim was to characterize naturally arising patterns of human contact that are capable of producing simulated epidemics with multiple wave structures. Methods We used an extensive dataset of proximal physical contacts between users of a public Wi-Fi Internet system to evaluate the epidemiological implications of an empirical urban contact network. We characterized the modularity (community structure) of the network and then estimated epidemic dynamics under a percolation-based model of infectious disease spread on the network. We classified simulated epidemics as multiwave using a novel metric and we identified network structures that were critical to the network’s ability to produce multiwave epidemics. Results We identified robust community structure in a large, empirical urban contact network from which multiwave epidemics may emerge naturally. This pattern was fueled by a special kind of insularity in which locally popular individuals were not the ones forging contacts with more distant social groups. Conclusions Our results suggest that ordinary contact patterns can produce multiwave epidemics at the scale of a single urban area without the temporal shifts that are usually assumed to be responsible. Understanding the role of community structure in epidemic dynamics allows officials to anticipate epidemic

  4. Mouth Rinses

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... with more severe oral problems, such as cavities, periodontal disease, gum inflammation, and xerostomia (dry mouth). Therapeutic ... fight up to 50 percent more of the bacteria that cause cavities, and most rinses are effective ...

  5. Phylodynamics of Enterovirus A71-Associated Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease in Viet Nam.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geoghegan, Jemma L; Tan, Le Van; Kühnert, Denise; Halpin, Rebecca A; Lin, Xudong; Simenauer, Ari; Akopov, Asmik; Das, Suman R; Stockwell, Timothy B; Shrivastava, Susmita; Ngoc, Nghiem My; Uyen, Le Thi Tam; Tuyen, Nguyen Thi Kim; Thanh, Tran Tan; Hang, Vu Thi Ty; Qui, Phan Tu; Hung, Nguyen Thanh; Khanh, Truong Huu; Thinh, Le Quoc; Nhan, Le Nguyen Thanh; Van, Hoang Minh Tu; Viet, Do Chau; Tuan, Ha Manh; Viet, Ho Lu; Hien, Tran Tinh; Chau, Nguyen Van Vinh; Thwaites, Guy; Grenfell, Bryan T; Stadler, Tanja; Wentworth, David E; Holmes, Edward C; Van Doorn, H Rogier

    2015-09-01

    Enterovirus A71 (EV-A71) is a major cause of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) and is particularly prevalent in parts of Southeast Asia, affecting thousands of children and infants each year. Revealing the evolutionary and epidemiological dynamics of EV-A71 through time and space is central to understanding its outbreak potential. We generated the full genome sequences of 200 EV-A71 strains sampled from various locations in Viet Nam between 2011 and 2013 and used these sequence data to determine the evolutionary history and phylodynamics of EV-A71 in Viet Nam, providing estimates of the effective reproduction number (Re) of the infection through time. In addition, we described the phylogeography of EV-A71 throughout Southeast Asia, documenting patterns of viral gene flow. Accordingly, our analysis reveals that a rapid genogroup switch from C4 to B5 likely took place during 2012 in Viet Nam. We show that the Re of subgenogroup C4 decreased during the time frame of sampling, whereas that of B5 increased and remained >1 at the end of 2013, corresponding to a rise in B5 prevalence. Our study reveals that the subgenogroup B5 virus that emerged into Viet Nam is closely related to variants that were responsible for large epidemics in Malaysia and Taiwan and therefore extends our knowledge regarding its associated area of endemicity. Subgenogroup B5 evidently has the potential to cause more widespread outbreaks across Southeast Asia. EV-A71 is one of many viruses that cause HFMD, a common syndrome that largely affects infants and children. HFMD usually causes only mild illness with no long-term consequences. Occasionally, however, severe infection may arise, especially in very young children, causing neurological complications and even death. EV-A71 is highly contagious and is associated with the most severe HFMD cases, with large and frequent epidemics of the virus recorded worldwide. Although major advances have been made in the development of a potential EV-A71

  6. Gender and leadership for health literacy to combat the epidemic rise of noncommunicable diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manhanzva, Rufaro; Marara, Praise; Duxbury, Theodore; Bobbins, Amy Claire; Pearse, Noel; Hoel, Erik; Mzizi, Thandi; Srinivas, Sunitha C

    2017-08-01

    Until recently, the noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) epidemic has been considered only a significant burden to men in high-income countries. However, latest figures indicate that half of all NCD-related deaths affect women, especially in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), with global responses to the NCD epidemic overlooking the significance of women and girls in their approaches and programs. This case study highlights the burden of disease challenging South Africa that disproportionately affects women in the country and suggests that the country, along with other LMICs internationally, requires a shift in the gender-based leadership of health literacy and self-empowerment.

  7. [Application of R-based multiple seasonal ARIMA model, in predicting the incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease in Shaanxi province].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, F; Zhu, N; Qiu, L; Wang, J J; Wang, W H

    2016-08-10

    To apply the ' auto-regressive integrated moving average product seasonal model' in predicting the number of hand, foot and mouth disease in Shaanxi province. In Shaanxi province, the trend of hand, foot and mouth disease was analyzed and tested, under the use of R software, between January 2009 and June 2015. Multiple seasonal ARIMA model was then fitted under time series to predict the number of hand, foot and mouth disease in 2016 and 2017. Seasonal effect was seen in hand, foot and mouth disease in Shaanxi province. A multiple seasonal ARIMA (2,1,0)×(1,1,0)12 was established, with the equation as (1 -B)(1 -B12)Ln (Xt) =((1-1.000B)/(1-0.532B-0.363B(2))*(1-0.644B12-0.454B12(2)))*Epsilont. The mean of absolute error and the relative error were 531.535 and 0.114, respectively when compared to the simulated number of patients from Jun to Dec in 2015. RESULTS under the prediction of multiple seasonal ARIMA model showed that the numbers of patients in both 2016 and 2017 were similar to that of 2015 in Shaanxi province. Multiple seasonal ARIMA (2,1,0)×(1,1,0)12 model could be used to successfully predict the incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease in Shaanxi province.

  8. Seroprevalence of human enterovirus 71 and coxsackievirus A16 in Guangdong, China, in pre- and post-2010 HFMD epidemic period.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei Li

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Human Enterovirus 71 and Coxsackie A16 have caused many outbreaks in the last decade in mainland China, resulting in thousands of fatal cases. Seroepidemiology which provides important information to document population immunity is rare in China. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A cross sectional study of Enterovirus 71 (EV71 and Coxsackie A16 (CA16 seroprevalence was carried out in Guangdong, China, pre- and post- the 2010 hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD epidemic period. The levels of EV71 and CA16 specific antibodies were evaluated by a microneutralization test and the geometric mean titer (GMT was calculated and compared. Our results indicated frequent infection by EV71 and CA16 in Guangdong before the 2010 epidemic. Only EV71 neutralizing antibody but not CA16 seroprevalence was significantly increased after the 2010 HFMD epidemic. Children less than 3 years old especially those aged 2 years showed the lowest positive rates for EV71 and CA16 NA before epidemic and the most significantly increased EV71 seroprevalence after epidemic. CA16 GMT values declined after the 2010 epidemic. CONCLUSIONS: These results indicate EV71 was the major pathogen of HFMD in Guangdong during the 2010 epidemic. The infection occurs largely in children less than 3 years, who should have first priority to receive an EV71 vaccine.

  9. The impact of within-herd genetic variation upon inferred transmission trees for foot-and-mouth disease virus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valdazo-González, Begoña; Kim, Jan T; Soubeyrand, Samuel; Wadsworth, Jemma; Knowles, Nick J; Haydon, Daniel T; King, Donald P

    2015-06-01

    Full-genome sequences have been used to monitor the fine-scale dynamics of epidemics caused by RNA viruses. However, the ability of this approach to confidently reconstruct transmission trees is limited by the knowledge of the genetic diversity of viruses that exist within different epidemiological units. In order to address this question, this study investigated the variability of 45 foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) genome sequences (from 33 animals) that were collected during 2007 from eight premises (10 different herds) in the United Kingdom. Bayesian and statistical parsimony analysis demonstrated that these sequences exhibited clustering which was consistent with a transmission scenario describing herd-to-herd spread of the virus. As an alternative to analysing all of the available samples in future epidemics, the impact of randomly selecting one sequence from each of these herds was used to assess cost-effective methods that might be used to infer transmission trees during FMD outbreaks. Using these approaches, 85% and 91% of the resulting topologies were either identical or differed by only one edge from a reference tree comprising all of the sequences generated within the outbreak. The sequence distances that accrued during sequential transmission events between epidemiological units was estimated to be 4.6 nucleotides, although the genetic variability between viruses recovered from chronic carrier animals was higher than between viruses from animals with acute-stage infection: an observation which poses challenges for the use of simple approaches to infer transmission trees. This study helps to develop strategies for sampling during FMD outbreaks, and provides data that will guide the development of further models to support control policies in the event of virus incursions into FMD free countries. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. No between-pen transmission of foot-and-mouth disease virus in vaccinated pigs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Roermund, van H.J.W.; Eblé, P.L.; Jong, de M.C.M.; Dekker, A.

    2010-01-01

    Many studies have shown transmission of foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) within groups of pigs, even when vaccinated, but only limited information is available on transmission between pens. Three new experiments were carried out in two replicates, which consisted of infectious pigs housed in a

  11. Influence of infection rate and migration on extinction of disease in spatial epidemics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sun, G.Q.; Liu, Q.X.; Jin, Z.; Chakraborty, A.; Li, B.L.

    2010-01-01

    Extinction of disease can be explained by the patterns of epidemic spreading, yet the underlying causes of extinction are far from being well understood. To reveal a mechanism of disease extinction, a cellular automata model with both birth, death rate and migration is presented. We find that, in

  12. Thermal inactivation of foot and mouth disease virus in extruded pet food.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gubbins, S; Forster, J; Clive, S; Schley, D; Zuber, S; Schaaff, J; Corley, D

    2016-12-01

    The risk of importing foot and mouth disease, a highly contagious viral disease of livestock, severely restricts trade and investment opportunities in many developing countries where the virus is present. This study was designed to investigate the inactivation of foot and mouth disease virus (FMDV) by heat treatments used in extruded commercial pet food manufacture. If extrusion could be shown to reliably inactivate the virus, this could potentially facilitate trade for FMDV-endemic countries. The authors found that there was no detectable virus following: i) treatment of FMDVspiked meat slurry at 68°C for 300 s; ii) treatment of FMDV-spiked slurry and meal mix at 79°C for 10 or 30 s, or iii) treatment of homogenised bovine tongue epithelium, taken from an FMDV-infected animal, at 79°C for 10 s. This corresponds to an estimated 8 log10 reduction in titre (95% credible interval: 6 log10 -13 log10). Furthermore, the authors found that the pH of the slurry and meal mix was sufficient to inactivate FMDV in the absence of heat treatment. This demonstrates that heat treatments used in commercial pet food manufacture are able to substantially reduce the titre of FMDV in infected raw materials. © OIE (World Organisation for Animal Health), 2016.

  13. Foot-and-mouth disease virus infection in young lambs: pathogenesis and tissue tropism

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ryan, Eoin; Horsington, Jacquelyn; Durand, Stephanie

    2008-01-01

    Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in adult sheep usually causes milder clinical signs than in cattle or pigs, and is often subtle enough to go undiagnosed. In contrast, FMD in lambs has been reported to cause high mortality during field outbreaks. In order to investigate the pathogenesis of FMD in lambs......, two groups, aged 10–14 days, were infected with foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) type O UKG. One group of lambs (n = 8) was inoculated with FMDV in the coronary band, while the other (n = 4) was infected by direct contact with FMDV-inoculated ewes. Daily serum samples and temperature measurements...... were taken. Lambs were killed sequentially and tissue samples taken for analysis. Using real-time RT-PCR, viral RNA levels in tissue samples and serum were measured, and a novel strand-specific real-time RT-PCR assay was used to quantify viral replication levels in tissues. Tissue sections were...

  14. Epidemic Spreading in Complex Networks with Resilient Nodes: Applications to FMD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pilwon Kim

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available At the outbreak of the animal epidemic disease, farms that recover quickly from partially infected state can delay or even suppress the wide spreading of the infection over farm networks. In this work, we focus on how the spatial transmission of the infection is affected by both factors, the topology of networks and the internal resilience mechanism of nodes. We first develop an individual farm model to examine the influence of initial number of infected individuals and vaccination rate on the transmission in a single farm. Based on such intrafarm model, the farm network is constructed which reflects disease transmission between farms at various stages. We explore the impact of the farms vaccinated at low rates on the disease transmission into entire farm network and investigate the effect of the control on hub farms on the transmission over the farm network. It is shown that intensive control on the farms vaccinated at low rates and hub farms effectively reduces the potential risk of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD outbreak on the farm network.

  15. Burning mouth syndrome: A review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rajendra G Patil

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Burning mouth syndrome is a condition characterized by chronic orofacial pain without any mucosal abnormalities or other organic disease. There are numerous synonyms for this ailment such as stomatodynia, stomatopyrosis, glossodynia, glossopyrosis, sore mouth, sore tongue, oral dysesthesia, and scalding mouth syndrome. Patients usually present with burning, stinging, or numbness on the tongue or other areas of oral mucosa. The complex etiology and lack of characteristic signs and symptoms makes the diagnosis difficult. As a result of which managing such patients become a herculean task. Moreover, lack of understanding of the disease leads to misdiagnosis and unnecessary referral of patients. In this article, the authors have described the etiopathogenesis, diagnostic algorithm and management of this confusing ailment.

  16. Modelling the atmospheric dispersion of foot-and-mouth disease virus for emergency preparedness

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, J.H.; Jensen, C.O.; Mikkelsen, T.

    2001-01-01

    A model system for simulating airborne spread of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is described. The system includes a virus production model and the local- and mesoscale atmospheric dispersion model RIMPUFF linked to the LINCOM local-scale Row model. LINCOM is used to calculate the sub-grid scale Row...

  17. Identification of factors associated with increased excretion of foot-and-mouth disease virus

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bravo De Rueda, C.; Dekker, A.; Eble, P.L.; Jong, de M.C.M.

    2014-01-01

    We investigated which variables possibly influence the amount of foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) shed in secretions and excretions by FMDV infected animals, as it is likely that the amount of FMDV shed is related to transmission risk. First, in a separate analysis of laboratory data, we showed

  18. Detection of Foot and mouth disease virus infected pigs still RT-PCR positive four weeks after challenge

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Orsel, K.; Roest, H.I.J.; Elzinga-Bril, E.M.; Hemert-Kluitenberg, van F.; Dekker, A.

    2008-01-01

    FOOT-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a contagious viral disease of cloven-hoofed animals including ruminants and pigs. The occurrence of disease in livestock has a great economic impact, especially for exporting countries. Export limitations are based partly on the existence of FMD carrier animals.

  19. Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease: A comprehensive review of a growing epidemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hassan, Kareem; Bhalla, Varun; Ezz El Regal, Mohammed; A-Kader, H Hesham

    2014-01-01

    Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is quickly becoming one of the most prominent causes of liver disease worldwide. The increasing incidence of NAFLD is tied to the obesity epidemic and the subsequent metabolic derangements brought along with it. Current efforts to elucidate the mechanism and causes of the disease have answered some questions, but much remains unknown about NAFLD. The aim of this article is to discuss the current knowledge regarding the pathogenesis of the disease, as well as the current and future diagnostic, preventative, and therapeutic options available to clinicians for the management of NAFLD. PMID:25232245

  20. New developments in foot-and-mouth disease diagnosis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kitching, R.P.; MacKay, D.K.J.

    1998-01-01

    A variety of newer diagnostic procedures based around the use of molecular technologies are now being undertaken to further characterise the foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) virus enabling a deeper understanding to be gained of the pathogenesis and epidemiology of this disease. Such approaches have categorically identified the carrier state and highlighted the importance of carrier animals in control programmes. Use of the polymerase chain reaction provides even further insight into the carrier animal but interpretation of data has to be undertaken with caution. The role of non-structural proteins can provide further insight into an animals response to both vaccination and natural infection and could provide a basis for separation of the carrier state. Finally the pivotal role of monoclonal antibodies in all aspects of FMD research is now clear and these highly specific reagents are now being used for a variety of research and diagnostic purposes within the FMD field. (author)

  1. Validation of the FAO/IAEA/PANAFTOSA ELISA kit for determination of antibodies against foot-and-mouth disease virus

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maradei, E.; Pedemonte, A.

    1998-01-01

    A Liquid phase blocking sandwich ELISA (LPBE) for the detection of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) antibodies, serotypes O, A and C was validated using sera from bovines free of antibodies and vaccinated bovines. This technique proved to be sensitive and specific for the study of these antibodies. This kit has been prepared by the Pan American Foot-and-Mouth Disease Center (PAHO/WHO) in collaboration with the Animal Production and Health Section of the Joint FAO/IAEA Division, Vienna, Austria and the Institute for Animal Health in Pirbright, United Kingdom. (author)

  2. Can epidemics be non-communicable?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Seeberg, Jens; Meinert, Lotte

    2015-01-01

    This article argues that the concept of communicability that is central to the distinction between communicable diseases (CDs) and noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) is poorly conceptualized. The epidemic spread of NCDs such as diabetes, depression, and eating disorders demonstrates...... that they are communicable, even if they are not infectious. We need to more critically explore how they might be communicable in specific environments. All diseases with epidemic potential, we argue, should be assumed to be commun icable in a broader sense, and that the underlying medical distinction between infectious...... and noninfectious diseases confuses our understanding of NCD epidemics when these categories are treated as synonymous with ‘communicable’ and ‘noncommunicable’ diseases, respectively. The dominant role accorded to the concept of ‘lifestyle’, with its focus on individual responsibility, is part of the problem...

  3. Passive immunization of guinea-pigs with llama single-domain antibody fragments against foot-and-mouth disease

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Harmsen, M.M.; Solt, van C.B.; Fijten, H.P.D.; Keulen, van L.; Rosalia, R.A.; Weerdmeester, K.; Cornelissen, A.H.M.; Bruin, de M.G.M.; Eble, P.L.; Dekker, A.

    2007-01-01

    Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious disease that occasionally causes outbreaks in Europe. There is a need for therapies that provide rapid protection against FMD in outbreak situations. We aim to provide such rapid protection by passive immunization with llama single-domain antibody

  4. Use of recombinant capsid proteins in the development of a vaccine against the foot-and-mouth disease virus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Belsham GJ

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Graham J Belsham, Anette Bøtner National Veterinary Institute, Technical University of Denmark, Kalvehave, Denmark Abstract: Foot-and-mouth disease remains one of the world's most economically important diseases of livestock. It is caused by foot-and-mouth disease virus, a member of the picornavirus family. The virus replicates very rapidly and can be efficiently transmitted between hosts by a variety of routes. The disease has been effectively controlled in some parts of the world but remains endemic in many others, thus there is a constant risk of introduction of the disease into areas that are normally free of foot-and-mouth disease with potentially huge economic consequences. To reduce the need for large-scale culling of infected, and potentially infected, animals there has been significant effort to develop new vaccines against this disease which avoid some, or all, of the deficiencies of current vaccines. A major focus has been on the use of systems that express the structural proteins of the virus that self-assemble to generate “empty capsid” particles which share many features with the intact virus but lack the ribonucleic acid genome and are therefore non-infectious. Such particles can be “designed” to improve their stability or modify their antigenicity and can be produced without “high containment” facilities. The development and use of such improved vaccines should assist in the global efforts to control this important disease. Keywords: picornavirus, diagnostic assays, virus structure, infection, immune responses

  5. Simulation modelling of population dynamics of mosquito vectors for rift valley Fever virus in a disease epidemic setting.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Clement N Mweya

    Full Text Available Rift Valley Fever (RVF is weather dependent arboviral infection of livestock and humans. Population dynamics of mosquito vectors is associated with disease epidemics. In our study, we use daily temperature and rainfall as model inputs to simulate dynamics of mosquito vectors population in relation to disease epidemics.Time-varying distributed delays (TVDD and multi-way functional response equations were implemented to simulate mosquito vectors and hosts developmental stages and to establish interactions between stages and phases of mosquito vectors in relation to vertebrate hosts for infection introduction in compartmental phases. An open-source modelling platforms, Universal Simulator and Qt integrated development environment were used to develop models in C++ programming language. Developed models include source codes for mosquito fecundity, host fecundity, water level, mosquito infection, host infection, interactions, and egg time. Extensible Markup Language (XML files were used as recipes to integrate source codes in Qt creator with Universal Simulator plug-in. We observed that Floodwater Aedines and Culicine population continued to fluctuate with temperature and water level over simulation period while controlled by availability of host for blood feeding. Infection in the system was introduced by floodwater Aedines. Culicines pick infection from infected host once to amplify disease epidemic. Simulated mosquito population show sudden unusual increase between December 1997 and January 1998 a similar period when RVF outbreak occurred in Ngorongoro district.Findings presented here provide new opportunities for weather-driven RVF epidemic simulation modelling. This is an ideal approach for understanding disease transmission dynamics towards epidemics prediction, prevention and control. This approach can be used as an alternative source for generation of calibrated RVF epidemics data in different settings.

  6. Simulation modelling of population dynamics of mosquito vectors for rift valley Fever virus in a disease epidemic setting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mweya, Clement N; Holst, Niels; Mboera, Leonard E G; Kimera, Sharadhuli I

    2014-01-01

    Rift Valley Fever (RVF) is weather dependent arboviral infection of livestock and humans. Population dynamics of mosquito vectors is associated with disease epidemics. In our study, we use daily temperature and rainfall as model inputs to simulate dynamics of mosquito vectors population in relation to disease epidemics. Time-varying distributed delays (TVDD) and multi-way functional response equations were implemented to simulate mosquito vectors and hosts developmental stages and to establish interactions between stages and phases of mosquito vectors in relation to vertebrate hosts for infection introduction in compartmental phases. An open-source modelling platforms, Universal Simulator and Qt integrated development environment were used to develop models in C++ programming language. Developed models include source codes for mosquito fecundity, host fecundity, water level, mosquito infection, host infection, interactions, and egg time. Extensible Markup Language (XML) files were used as recipes to integrate source codes in Qt creator with Universal Simulator plug-in. We observed that Floodwater Aedines and Culicine population continued to fluctuate with temperature and water level over simulation period while controlled by availability of host for blood feeding. Infection in the system was introduced by floodwater Aedines. Culicines pick infection from infected host once to amplify disease epidemic. Simulated mosquito population show sudden unusual increase between December 1997 and January 1998 a similar period when RVF outbreak occurred in Ngorongoro district. Findings presented here provide new opportunities for weather-driven RVF epidemic simulation modelling. This is an ideal approach for understanding disease transmission dynamics towards epidemics prediction, prevention and control. This approach can be used as an alternative source for generation of calibrated RVF epidemics data in different settings.

  7. Basic reproduction number of coxsackievirus type A6 and A16 and enterovirus 71: estimates from outbreaks of hand, foot and mouth disease in Singapore, a tropical city-state.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, C T K; Jiang, L; Ma, S; James, L; Ang, L W

    2016-04-01

    Coxsackievirus A6 (CV-A6), coxsackievirus A16 (CV-A16) and enterovirus 71 (EV-A71) were the major enteroviruses causing nationwide hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) epidemics in Singapore in the last decade. We estimated the basic reproduction number (R 0) of these enteroviruses to obtain a better understanding of their transmission dynamics. We merged records of cases from HFMD outbreaks reported between 2007 and 2012 with laboratory results from virological surveillance. R 0 was estimated based on the cumulative number of reported cases in the initial growth phase of each outbreak associated with the particular enterovirus type. A total of 33 HFMD outbreaks were selected based on the inclusion criteria specified for our study, of which five were associated with CV-A6, 13 with CV-A16, and 15 with EV-A71. The median R 0 was estimated to be 5·04 [interquartile range (IQR) 3·57-5·16] for CV-A6, 2·42 (IQR 1·85-3·36) for CV-A16, and 3·50 (IQR 2·36-4·53) for EV-A71. R 0 was not significantly associated with number of infected children (P = 0·86), number of exposed children (P = 0·94), and duration of the outbreak (P = 0·05). These enterovirus-specific R 0 estimates will be helpful in providing insights into the potential growth of future HFMD epidemics and outbreaks for timely implementation of disease control measures, together with disease dynamics such as severity of the cases.

  8. Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease (HFMD)

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... feature story, podcast, and other CDC resources about personal hygiene... Prevention People infected with hand, foot, and mouth ... these countries can protect themselves by practicing good personal hygiene. Learn more . To learn more about outbreaks occurring ...

  9. Recombinant human adenovirus-5 expressing capsid proteins of Indian vaccine strains of foot-and-mouth disease virus elicits effective antibody response in cattle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Recombinant adenovirus-5 vectored foot-and-mouth disease constructs (Ad5- FMD) were made for three Indian vaccine virus serotypes O,A and Asia 1. Constructs co-expressing foot-and- mouth disease virus (FMDV) capsid and viral 3C protease sequences, were evaluated for their ability to induce a neutral...

  10. Human enterovirus 71 epidemics: what's next?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yip, Cyril C. Y.; Lau, Susanna K. P.; Woo, Patrick C. Y.; Yuen, Kwok-Yung

    2013-01-01

    Human enterovirus 71 (EV71) epidemics have affected various countries in the past 40 years. EV71 commonly causes hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in children, but can result in neurological and cardiorespiratory complications in severe cases. Genotypic changes of EV71 have been observed in different places over time, with the emergence of novel genotypes or subgenotypes giving rise to serious outbreaks. Since the late 1990s, intra- and inter-typic recombination events in EV71 have been increasingly reported in the Asia-Pacific region. In particular, ‘double-recombinant’ EV71 strains belonging to a novel genotype D have been predominant in mainland China and Hong Kong over the last decade, though co-circulating with a minority of other EV71 subgenotypes and coxsackie A viruses. Continuous surveillance and genome studies are important to detect potential novel mutants or recombinants in the near future. Rapid and sensitive molecular detection of EV71 is of paramount importance in anticipating and combating EV71 outbreaks. PMID:24119538

  11. Behavioral Responses to Epidemics in an Online Experiment: Using Virtual Diseases to Study Human Behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Frederick; Griffith, Amanda; Cottrell, Allin; Wong, Yue-Ling

    2013-01-01

    We report the results of a study we conducted using a simple multiplayer online game that simulates the spread of an infectious disease through a population composed of the players. We use our virtual epidemics game to examine how people respond to epidemics. The analysis shows that people's behavior is responsive to the cost of self-protection, the reported prevalence of disease, and their experiences earlier in the epidemic. Specifically, decreasing the cost of self-protection increases the rate of safe behavior. Higher reported prevalence also raises the likelihood that individuals would engage in self-protection, where the magnitude of this effect depends on how much time has elapsed in the epidemic. Individuals' experiences in terms of how often an infection was acquired when they did not engage in self-protection are another factor that determines whether they will invest in preventive measures later on. All else being equal, individuals who were infected at a higher rate are more likely to engage in self-protective behavior compared to those with a lower rate of infection. Lastly, fixing everything else, people's willingness to engage in safe behavior waxes or wanes over time, depending on the severity of an epidemic: when prevalence is high, people are more likely to adopt self-protective measures as time goes by; when prevalence is low, a ‘self-protection fatigue’ effect sets in whereby individuals are less willing to engage in safe behavior over time. PMID:23326360

  12. Identification of a serotype-independent linear epitope of foot-and-mouth disease virus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Baolin; Wang, Mingxia; Liu, Wenming; Xu, Zhiqiang; Wang, Haiwei; Yang, Decheng; Ma, Wenge; Zhou, Guohui; Yu, Li

    2017-12-01

    Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD), caused by foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV), is a highly contagious infectious disease that affects domestic and wild cloven-hoofed animals worldwide. VP2 is a structural protein of FMDV. In this study, an FMDV serotype-independent monoclonal antibody (MAb), 10B10, against the viral capsid protein VP2 was generated, and a series of GST fusion proteins expressing a truncated peptide of VP2 was subjected to Western blot analysis using MAb 10B10. Their results indicated that the peptide 8 TLLEDRILT 16 of VP2 is the minimal requirement of the epitope recognized by MAb 10B10. Importantly, this linear epitope was highly conserved among all seven serotypes of FMDV in a sequence alignment analysis. Subsequent alanine-scanning mutagenesis analysis revealed that the residues Thr 8 and Asp 12 of the epitope were crucial for MAb-10B10 binding. Furthermore, Western blot analysis also revealed that the MAb 10B10-directed epitope could be recognized by positive sera from FMDV-infected cattle. The discovery that MAb 10B10 recognizes a serotype-independent linear epitope of FMDV suggests potential applications for this MAb in the development of serotype-independent tests for FMDV.

  13. Foot-and-mouth disease virus-induced RNA polymerase is associated with Golgi apparatus.

    OpenAIRE

    Polatnick, J; Wool, S H

    1985-01-01

    Electrophoretic analysis of the Golgi apparatus isolated by differential centrifugation from radiolabeled cells infected with foot-and-mouth disease virus showed about 10 protein bands. The virus-induced RNA polymerase was identified by immunoprecipitation and electron microscope staining procedures. Pulse-chase experiments indicated that the polymerase passed through the Golgi apparatus in less than 1 h.

  14. Rescue of foot-and-mouth disease viruses that are pathogenic for cattle from preserved viral RNA samples.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Graham J Belsham

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Foot and mouth disease is an economically important disease of cloven-hoofed animals including cattle, sheep and pigs. It is caused by a picornavirus, foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV, which has a positive sense RNA genome which, when introduced into cells, can initiate virus replication. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A system has been developed to rescue infectious FMDV from RNA preparations generated from clinical samples obtained under experimental conditions and then applied to samples collected in the "field". Clinical samples from suspect cases of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD were obtained from within Pakistan and Afghanistan. The samples were treated to preserve the RNA and then transported to National Veterinary Institute, Lindholm, Denmark. Following RNA extraction, FMDV RNA was quantified by real-time RT-PCR and samples containing significant levels of FMDV RNA were introduced into susceptible cells using electroporation. Progeny viruses were amplified in primary bovine thyroid cells and characterized using antigen ELISA and also by RT-PCR plus sequencing. FMD viruses of three different serotypes and multiple lineages have been successfully rescued from the RNA samples. Two of the rescued viruses (of serotype O and Asia 1 were inoculated into bull calves under high containment conditions. Acute clinical disease was observed in each case which spread rapidly from the inoculated calves to in-contact animals. Thus the rescued viruses were highly pathogenic. The availability of the rescued viruses enabled serotyping by antigen ELISA and facilitated genome sequencing. CONCLUSIONS: The procedure described here should improve the characterization of FMDVs circulating in countries where the disease is endemic and thus enhance disease control globally.

  15. Estimating the spatial distribution of a plant disease epidemic from a sample

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sampling is of central importance in plant pathology. It facilitates our understanding of how epidemics develop in space and time and can also be used to inform disease management decisions. Making inferences from a sample is necessary because we rarely have the resources to conduct a complete censu...

  16. Epidemiology of foot-and-mouth disease in Landhi Dairy Colony, Pakistan, the world largest Buffalo colony

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Klein, Jörn; Hussain, M.; Ahmad, M.

    2008-01-01

    , as well as an unknown number of sheep and goats). Each month from April 2006 to April 2007 we collected mouth-swabs from apparently healthy buffaloes and cattle, applying a convenient sampling based on a two-stage random sampling scheme, in conjunction with participatory information from each selected...... farm. Furthermore, we also collected epithelium samples from animals with clinical disease, as well as mouth-swabs samples from those farms. In addition, we analysed a total of 180 serum samples randomly collecting 30 samples each month at the local slaughterhouse, from October 2006 to March 2007...

  17. Rate of Foot-and mouth Disease Virus Transmission by Carriers Quantified from Experimental Data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dekker, A.; Vernooij, J.C.M.; Bouma, A.; Stegeman, J.A.

    2008-01-01

    Upon infection with foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) a considerable number of animals become carriers of the virus. These carriers are considered to be a risk for new outbreaks, but the rate at which these animals can transmit the infection has not been quantified. An analysis was carried out

  18. Serological, hematological, Biochemical and Oxidative Markers During Foot and Mouth Disease Serotype ‘O’ Infection, Egypt

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nasr A.M. NASR EL-DEEN

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Foot and mouth disease (FMD is an extremely grave communicable disease of livestock. It affects all wild and domestic animals with cloven hoof. It is caused by Aphtho virus (Apthous fever or (FMDV foot and mouth disease virus which is originated from family Picornaviridae. 30 adult female water buffaloes, 3-5 years old infected with FMD serotypes, O. These animals were located at Sharkia governorate, Egypt during the period beetwen December 2014 to March 2015. Hematological findings showed no significant change in erythrogram and reduction in total leukocytes in the early stage of FMDV infection. Moreover development of macrocytic normochromic anemia and increase in total leukocytes and lymphocytic counts was reported in the late stage of infection. A significant decrease in cholesterol , progesterone , total proteins, albumin , globulins, calcium and sodium levels in infected groups, while a significant increase in serum activities of ALT ,AST, glucose, total, direct ,indirect bilirubine, phosphorous potassium, NO. MDA, CK-MB, LDH and CTNI. Without alterations in creatinine level.

  19. Foot-and-mouth disease virus capsid proteins; analysis of protein processing, assembly and utility as vaccines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Belsham, Graham

    Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) remains one of the most economically important infectious diseases of production animals globally. The infection is caused by foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV), a member of the picornavirus family. The positive sense RNA genome of the virus includes a single, large......, open reading frame that encodes a polyprotein. The intact polyprotein is never observed as it is processed, both during and after translation, to 15 different mature proteins plus a variety of precursors. The FMDV capsid protein precursor, P1-2A, is cleaved by the virus encoded 3C protease (3Cpro......) to generate VP0, VP3, VP1 and the peptide 2A. Sixty copies of each of the capsid proteins “self-assemble” into empty capsid particles or with the RNA genome into infectious viruses. These particles normally lack 2A but it is possible to construct and isolate mutant FMDVs in which the cleavage of the VP1/2A...

  20. Hepatitis E epidemics in India

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The first well recorded epidemic was in 1955-56 here in Delhi with nearly 30000 cases. Large outbreaks occurred in 1978 in Kashmir. My interest in this disease began in 1991 during investigations into a large epidemic of hepatitis E in Kanpur that my mentor, later Prof SR Naik, and I undertook. I will use this epidemic as an ...

  1. Numerical Analysis of Fractional Order Epidemic Model of Childhood Diseases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fazal Haq

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The fractional order Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR epidemic model of childhood disease is considered. Laplace–Adomian Decomposition Method is used to compute an approximate solution of the system of nonlinear fractional differential equations. We obtain the solutions of fractional differential equations in the form of infinite series. The series solution of the proposed model converges rapidly to its exact value. The obtained results are compared with the classical case.

  2. Global Foot-and-Mouth Disease Research Update and Gap Analysis: 7 - Pathogenesis and Molecular Biology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, L; Knight-Jones, T J D; Charleston, B; Rodriguez, L L; Gay, C G; Sumption, K J; Vosloo, W

    2016-06-01

    We assessed research knowledge gaps in the fields of FMDV (foot-and-mouth disease virus) pathogenesis and molecular biology by performing a literature review (2011-15) and collecting research updates (2014) from 33 institutes from across the world. Findings were used to identify priority areas for future research. There have been important advances in FMDV pathogenesis; FMDV remains in lymph nodes of many recovered animals that otherwise do not appear persistently infected, even in species previously not associated with the carrier state. Whether virus retention helps maintain host immunity and/or virus survival is not known. Studies of FMDV pathogenesis in wildlife have provided insights into disease epidemiology, in endemic and epidemic settings. Many aspects of FMDV infection and virus entry remain unknown; however, at the cellular level, we know that expression level and availability of integrins (that permit viral entry), rate of clearance of infected cells and strength of anti-viral type I IFN (interferon) response are key determinants of tissue tropism. Extending findings to improved understanding of transmission requires a standardized approach and adoption of natural routes of infection during experimental study. There has been recognition of the importance of autophagosomes for FMDV entry into the cytoplasm following cell surface receptor binding, and that distinct internal cellular membranes are exploited for viral replication and immune evasion. New roles for viral proteins in blocking type I IFN production and downstream signalling have been identified facilitating research in anti-viral therapeutics. We know more about how infection affects cell protein expression, and research into molecular determinants of capsid stability has aided the development of stable vaccines. We have an expanding knowledge of viral and host molecular determinates of virulence and infectiousness, and of how phylogenetics may be used to estimate vaccine match and strain

  3. Detection of Foot-and-mouth Disease Serotype O by ELISA Using a Monoclonal Antibody

    OpenAIRE

    Chen, Hao-tai; Peng, Yun-hua; Zhang, Yong-guang; Liu, Xiang-tao

    2012-01-01

    An ELISA assay with monoclonal antibody (MELISA) was used to type serotype O of foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV). All FMDV serotype O reference strains were positive by MELISA, while other viruses such as FMDV serotypes Asia 1, C, and A and classical swine fever virus, swine vesicular disease virus, and porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus remained negative. Furthermore, FMDV serotype O positive samples were able to be detected by MELISA. This assay may be particularly suita...

  4. Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus Serotype SAT 3 in Long-Horned Ankole Calf, Uganda

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dhikusooka, Moses Tefula; Tjørnehøj, Kirsten; Ayebazibwe, Chrisostom

    2015-01-01

    After a 16-year interval, foot-and-mouth disease virus serotype SAT 3 was isolated in 2013 from an apparently healthy long-horned Ankole calf that grazed close to buffalo in Uganda. The emergent virus strain is ≈20% different in nucleotide sequence (encoding VP1 [viral protein 1]) from its closest...

  5. Comparison of complement fixation and ELISA for diagnosis of foot-and-mouth disease

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Caballero, P.H.; Gonzalez, S.; Orue, P.M.; Vergara, N.N.

    1998-01-01

    Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) virus is characterised by its rapid transmission and its great antigenic variability which require a requires a rapid and accurate diagnosis in the laboratory, in order to initiate an immediate response for control. From these studies it is clear that Enzyme linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) has the advantage over the Complement fixation test (CFT) of being a test of high sensitivity and specificity. Therefore, this technique is now used in our laboratory for diagnosis to detect FMD virus (O-A-C) in epithelia from animals affected by the disease. (author)

  6. Parameter Scaling for Epidemic Size in a Spatial Epidemic Model with Mobile Individuals.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chiyori T Urabe

    Full Text Available In recent years, serious infectious diseases tend to transcend national borders and widely spread in a global scale. The incidence and prevalence of epidemics are highly influenced not only by pathogen-dependent disease characteristics such as the force of infection, the latent period, and the infectious period, but also by human mobility and contact patterns. However, the effect of heterogeneous mobility of individuals on epidemic outcomes is not fully understood. Here, we aim to elucidate how spatial mobility of individuals contributes to the final epidemic size in a spatial susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR model with mobile individuals in a square lattice. After illustrating the interplay between the mobility parameters and the other parameters on the spatial epidemic spreading, we propose an index as a function of system parameters, which largely governs the final epidemic size. The main contribution of this study is to show that the proposed index is useful for estimating how parameter scaling affects the final epidemic size. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed index, we show that there is a positive correlation between the proposed index computed with the real data of human airline travels and the actual number of positive incident cases of influenza B in the entire world, implying that the growing incidence of influenza B is attributed to increased human mobility.

  7. Control of foot-and-mouth disease by using replication-defective human adenoviruses to deliver vaccines and biotherapeutics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is one of the most contagious viral diseases that can affect cloven-hoofed livestock and wild animals. Outbreaks of FMD have caused devastating economic losses and the slaughter of millions of animals in many regions of the world affecting the food chain and global devel...

  8. Antiviral activity of ovine interferon tau 4 against foot-and-mouth disease virus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Usharani, Jayaramaiah; Park, Sun Young; Cho, Eun-Ju; Kim, Chungsu; Ko, Young-Joon; Tark, Dongseob; Kim, Su-Mi; Park, Jong-Hyeon; Lee, Kwang-Nyeong; Lee, Myoung-Heon; Lee, Hyang-Sim

    2017-07-01

    Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is an economically important disease in most parts of the world and new therapeutic agents are needed to protect the animals before vaccination can trigger the host immune response. Although several interferons have been used for their antiviral activities against Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV), ovine interferon tau 4 (OvIFN-τ4), with a broad-spectrum of action, cross-species antiviral activity, and lower incidence of toxicity in comparison to other type І interferons, has not yet been evaluated for this indication. This is the first study to evaluate the antiviral activity of OvIFN-τ4 against various strains of FMDV. The effective anti-cytopathic concentration of OvIFN-τ4 and its effectiveness pre- and post-infection with FMDV were tested in vitro in LFBK cells. In vivo activity of OvIFN-τ4 was then confirmed in a mouse model of infection. OvIFN-τ4 at a concentration of 500 ng, protected mice until 5days post-FMDV challenge and provided 90% protection for 10 days following FMDV challenge. These results suggest that OvIFN-τ4 could be used as an alternative to other interferons or antiviral agents at the time of FMD outbreak. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  9. Environmental impacts of the foot and mouth disease outbreak in Great Britain in 2001: the use of risk analysis to manage the risks in the countryside.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, K C

    2002-12-01

    Restrictions imposed for more than ten months throughout Great Britain in 2001 to control and eradicate foot and mouth disease (FMD) had a damaging effect on tourism and rural businesses. Risk assessment can play a valuable role in ensuring that the action taken is proportionate to the risk, and that countryside activities are allowed to resume when this can be done without compromising the objective of controlling and eradicating the disease. A risk assessment unit was established at the commencement of the epidemic to consider the risks posed by particular activities, to identify ways of managing those risks, and to make recommendations which could be used by policy makers when deciding what action to take. The assessments produced by the unit were published and the scientific rationale which supported policy and procedural changes was thereby exposed to public scrutiny and criticism. The author lists the activities subjected to veterinary risk assessments and describes how the process was used to consider public access to the countryside, leading to policy changes which within nine months resulted in the reopening of more than 96% of footpaths and bridleways without causing new outbreaks of FMD. A completed risk assessment is also included.

  10. Two profitless delays for an SEIRS epidemic disease model with vertical transmission and pulse vaccination

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meng Xinzhu; Jiao Jianjun; Chen Lansun

    2009-01-01

    Since the investigation of impulsive delay differential equations is beginning, the literature on delay epidemic models with pulse vaccination is not extensive. In this paper, we propose a new SEIRS epidemic disease model with two profitless delays and vertical transmission, and analyze the dynamics behaviors of the model under pulse vaccination. Using the discrete dynamical system determined by the stroboscopic map, we obtain a 'infection-free' periodic solution, further, show that the 'infection-free' periodic solution is globally attractive when some parameters of the model are under appropriate conditions. Using a new modeling method, we obtain sufficient condition for the permanence of the epidemic model with pulse vaccination. We show that time delays, pulse vaccination and vertical transmission can bring different effects on the dynamics behaviors of the model by numerical analysis. Our results also show the delays are 'profitless'. In this paper, the main feature is to introduce two discrete time delays, vertical transmission and impulse into SEIRS epidemic model and to give pulse vaccination strategies.

  11. Global foot-and-mouth disease research update and gap analysis: 2 - epidemiology, wildlife and economics

    Science.gov (United States)

    In 2014, the Global Foot-and-mouth disease Research ings in the fields of (i) epidemiology, (ii) wildlife and (iii) Alliance (GFRA) conducted a gap analysis of foot-and- economics. Although the three sections, epidemiology, wildlife and economics are presented as separate entities, the fields are ...

  12. Onychomadesis outbreak in Valencia, Spain associated with hand, foot, and mouth disease caused by enteroviruses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davia, Javier López; Bel, Pablo Hernández; Ninet, Violeta Zaragoza; Bracho, María Alma; González-Candelas, Fernando; Salazar, Antonio; Gobernado, Miguel; Bosch, Isabel Febrer

    2011-01-01

    This report evaluates the June 2008 onychomadesis outbreak in Valencia, Spain. The study sample consisted of 221 onychomadesis cases and 77 nonaffected individuals who lived close to those affected. We collected data on dietary variables, hygiene products, and individual pathological histories. Feces and blood specimens were collected from 44 cases and 24 controls to evaluate exposure to infectious agents. Pathological background data revealed a high frequency (61%) of hand, foot, and mouth disease among the onychomadesis cases. Coxsackievirus A10 was the most commonly detected enterovirus in both case and control groups (49%). Other enteroviruses such as coxsackieviruses A5, A6, A16, B1, and B3; echoviruses 3, 4, and 9; and enterovirus 71 were present in low frequencies in the case and control groups (3-9%). The 2008 onychomadesis outbreak in the metropolitan area of Valencia was associated with an outbreak of hand, foot, and mouth disease primarily caused by coxsackievirus A10. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  13. Evaluation of an indirect ELISA for detection and typing of foot-and-mouth disease virus

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prado, J.A.

    1998-01-01

    An indirect enzyme linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) kit was used for diagnosis of foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) types O1, A23, C3 which occurred in Rio Grande do Sul State, Southern Brazil during 1984-1994. The samples were randomly selected and tested by ELISA, Complement Fixation Test (CFT) and in tissue culture. Out of 106 samples 78 (73,5%) were positive by ELISA and 39 (36,8%) were found positive in CFT, when original suspensions were used. Once these samples were inoculated onto tissue culture both tests gave similar results, although ELISA picked up more positive samples during the 1st passage in tissue culture. The negative samples (16) included in this study were negative in all tests. The ELISA was more sensitive than and as specific as CFT. ELISA and tissue culture together were shown to be a better system for detection of foot-and-mouth disease virus antigen than CFT. (author)

  14. Foot-and-mouth disease control in Zambia: A review of the current situation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yona Sinkala

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Zambia has been experiencing low livestock productivity as well as trade restrictions owing to the occurrence of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD and contagious bovine pleura pneumonia (CBPP. Foot-and-mouth disease was first recorded in Zambia in 1933 in the Western Province and since then the country has experienced repeated outbreaks. Bearing in mind the pressure that may be existing on the many risk factors for FMD including climate change, there is need to review our knowledge on FMD control. We present the spatial distribution of the FMD outbreaks that have been recorded in Zambia in the last twenty years, and the effect of the vaccinations and movement control that have been applied. We propose further strain characterisation of previous FMD outbreaks, including full sequence of VP1 gene and the 5’UTR site. The data will be geo-coded and populated with risk factor attributes. We also present preliminary findings of the buffalo and cattle probang sampling that was conducted in Lochnivar and Kafue National Park. We further probang sampled 25 buffalo at each interface area in Sioma Ngwezi, Lukusuzi and Lower Zambezi national parks. Villages in close proximity to the buffalo populations as well as those not in close proximity will be multistage cluster sampled for comparison. The data will be geo-coded and populated with risk factor and foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV characterisation attributes. Data collected using a pre-tested structured questionnaire will be geo-coded and populated with identified risk factors and stored in a database and will be spatially modelled to determine their effect on FMD occurrence and control measures. New outbreaks of FMD that may occur will be investigated to find out if there are new strains involved, species affected and predisposing risk factors. The authors conclude that impacts of FMD on livelihoods if appropriate control measures are not put in place are far more devastating especially at community level

  15. Evaluation of Multiplexed Foot-and-Mouth Disease Nonstructural Protein Antibody Assay Against Standardized Bovine Serum Panel

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Perkins, J; Parida, S; Clavijo, A

    2007-05-14

    Liquid array technology has previously been used to show proof-of-principle of a multiplexed non structural protein serological assay to differentiate foot-and-mouth infected and vaccinated animals. The current multiplexed assay consists of synthetically produced peptide signatures 3A, 3B and 3D and recombinant protein signature 3ABC in combination with four controls. To determine diagnostic specificity of each signature in the multiplex, the assay was evaluated against a naive population (n = 104) and a vaccinated population (n = 94). Subsequently, the multiplexed assay was assessed using a panel of bovine sera generated by the World Reference Laboratory for foot-and-mouth disease in Pirbright, UK. This sera panel has been used to assess the performance of other singleplex ELISA-based non-structural protein antibody assays. The 3ABC signature in the multiplexed assay showed comparative performance to a commercially available non-structural protein 3ABC ELISA (Cedi test{reg_sign}) and additional information pertaining to the relative diagnostic sensitivity of each signature in the multiplex is acquired in one experiment. The encouraging results of the evaluation of the multiplexed assay against a panel of diagnostically relevant samples promotes further assay development and optimization to generate an assay for routine use in foot-and-mouth disease surveillance.

  16. Foot-and-mouth disease in pigs: current epidemiological situation and control methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    León, Emilio A

    2012-03-01

    Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is the paradigm of a transboundary animal disease. Beyond any doubt, it is the most serious challenge for livestock's health. Official Veterinary Services from free countries invest considerable amount of money to prevent its introduction, whereas those from endemic countries invest most of their resources in the control of the disease. A very important volume of scientific production is developed every year in different aspects of FMD, and for that reason, the current knowledge makes the diagnosis of the disease easier to a great extent. However, FMD is still endemic in about two-thirds of the countries, and periodically re-emergent in several countries. This paper is a review of recent publications, focusing mainly on control measures and current world epidemiological situation, emphasizing primarily pigs. © 2012 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

  17. Economic and Social Factors in Designing Disease Control Strategies for Epidemics on Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kleczkowski, A.; Dybiec, B.; Gilligan, C. A.

    2006-11-01

    Models for control of epidemics on local, global and small-world networks are considered, with only partial information accessible about the status of individuals and their connections. The main goal of an effective control measure is to stop the epidemic at a lowest possible cost, including treatment and cost necessary to track the disease spread. We show that delay in detection of infectious individuals and presence of long-range links are the most important factors determining the cost. However, the details of long-range links are usually the least-known element of the social interactions due to their occasional character and potentially short life-span. We show that under some conditions on the probability of disease spread, it is advisable to attempt to track those links, even if this involves additional costs. Thus, collecting some additional knowledge about the network structure might be beneficial to ensure a successful and cost-effective control.

  18. Foot-and-mouth disease virus-associated abortion and vertical transmission following acute infection in cattle under natural conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious and economically important viral disease of cloven-hoofed animals, including domestic as well as more than 70 wild host species. During recent FMD outbreaks in India, spontaneous abortions were reported amongst FMD-affected and asymptomatic cows. T...

  19. Full protection of swine against foot-and-mouth disease by a bivalent B-cell epitope dendrimer peptide

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Blanco, Esther; Guerra, Beatriz; Torre, de la Beatriz; Defaus, Sira; Dekker, A.; Andreu, D.; Sobrino, Francisco

    2016-01-01

    Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) causes a highly contagious disease of cloven-hoofed animals. We have reported (Cubillos et al., 2008) that a synthetic dendrimeric peptide consisting of four copies of a B-cell epitope [VP1(136–154)] linked through thioether bonds to a T-cell epitope [3A(21–35)

  20. The role of African buffalos (Syncerus caffer) in the maintenance of foot-and-mouth disease in Uganda

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ayebazibwe, C.; Mwiine, F. N.; Tjørnehøj, Kirsten

    2010-01-01

    (Alcelaphus buselaphus) and 5 waterbucks (Kobus ellipsiprymnus) from four major National Parks in Uganda between 2005 and 2008. Serum samples were screened to detect antibodies against foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) non-structural proteins (NSP) using the Ceditest FMDV NS ELISA. Solid Phase Blocking......Background To study the role of African buffalos (Syncerus caffer) in the maintenance of foot-and-mouth disease in Uganda, serum samples were collected from 207 African buffalos, 21 impalas (Aepyceros melampus), 1 giraffe (Giraffa camelopardalis), 1 common eland (Taurotragus oryx), 7 hartebeests...... ELISAs (SPBE) were used to determine the serotype-specificity of antibodies against the seven serotypes of FMDV among the positive samples. Virus isolation and sequencing were undertaken to identify circulating viruses and determine relatedness between them. Results Among the buffalo samples tested, 85...

  1. Impact of interventions and the incidence of ebola virus disease in Liberia-implications for future epidemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirsch, Thomas D; Moseson, Heidi; Massaquoi, Moses; Nyenswah, Tolbert G; Goodermote, Rachel; Rodriguez-Barraquer, Isabel; Lessler, Justin; Cumings, Derek A T; Peters, David H

    2017-03-01

    To better understand the impact of national and global efforts to contain the Ebola virus disease epidemic of 2014–15 in Liberia, we provide a detailed timeline of the major interventions and relate them to the epidemic curve.  In addition to personal experience in the response, we systematically reviewed situation reports from the Liberian government, UN, CDC, WHO, UNICEF, IFRC, USAID, and local and international news reports to create the timeline. We extracted data on the timing and nature of activities and compared them to the timeline of the epidemic curve using the reproduction number—the estimate of the average number of new cases caused by a single case.  Interventions were organized around five major strategies, with the majority of resources directed to the creation of treatment beds. We conclude that no single intervention stopped the epidemic; rather, the interventions likely had reinforcing effects, and some were less likely than others to have made a major impact. We find that the epidemic’s turning coincided with a reorganization of the response in August–September 2014, the emergence of community leadership in control efforts, and changing beliefs and practices in the population. Ebola Treatment Units were important for Ebola treatment, but the vast majority of these treatment centre beds became available after the epidemic curve began declining. Similarly, the United Nations Mission for Ebola Emergency Response was launched after the epidemic curve had already turned.  These findings have significant policy implications for future epidemics and suggest that much of the decline in the epidemic curve was driven by critical behaviour changes within local communities, rather than by international efforts that came after the epidemic had turned. Future global interventions in epidemic response should focus on building community capabilities, strengthening local ownership, and dramatically reducing delays in the response.

  2. Dry mouth and older people.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomson, W M

    2015-03-01

    Dry mouth is more common among older people than in any other age group. Appropriate definition and accurate measurement of dry mouth is critical for better understanding, monitoring and treatment of the condition. Xerostomia is the symptom(s) of dry mouth; it can be measured using methods ranging from single questions to multi-item summated rating scales. Low salivary flow (known as salivary gland hypofunction, or SGH) must be determined by measuring that flow. The relationship between SGH and xerostomia is not straightforward, but both conditions are common among older people, and they affect sufferers' day-to-day lives in important ways. The major risk factor for dry mouth is the taking of particular medications, and older people take more of those than any other age group, not only for symptomatic relief of various age-associated chronic diseases, but also in order to reduce the likelihood of complications which may arise from those conditions. The greater the number taken, the greater the associated anticholinergic burden, and the more likely it is that the individual will suffer from dry mouth. Since treating dry mouth is such a challenge for clinicians, there is a need for dentists, doctors and pharmacists to work together to prevent it occurring. © 2015 Australian Dental Association.

  3. Outbreak or Epidemic? How Obama's Language Choice Transformed the Ebola Outbreak Into an Epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gesser-Edelsburg, Anat; Shir-Raz, Yaffa; Bar-Lev, Oshrat Sassoni; James, James J; Green, Manfred S

    2016-08-01

    Our aim was to examine in what terms leading newspapers' online sites described the current Ebola crisis. We employed a quantitative content analysis of terms attributed to Ebola. We found and analyzed 582 articles published between March 23 and September 30, 2014, on the online websites of 3 newspapers: The New York Times, Daily Mail, and Ynet. Our theoretical framework drew from the fields of health communication and emerging infectious disease communication, including such concepts as framing media literacy, risk signatures, and mental models. We found that outbreak and epidemic were used interchangeably in the articles. From September 16, 2014, onward, epidemic predominated, corresponding to when President Barack Obama explicitly referred to Ebola as an epidemic. Prior to Obama's speech, 86.8% of the articles (323) used the term outbreak and only 8.6% (32) used the term epidemic. Subsequently, both terms were used almost the same amount: 53.8% of the articles (113) used the term outbreak and 53.3% (112) used the term epidemic. Effective communication is crucial during public health emergencies such as Ebola, because language framing affects the decision-making process of social judgments and actions. The choice of one term (outbreak) over another (epidemic) can create different conceptualizations of the disease, thereby influencing the risk signature. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2016;10:669-673).

  4. Estimation of the transmission of foot-and-mouth disease virus from infected sheep to cattle

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bravo De Rueda, C.; Jong, de M.C.M.; Eble, P.L.; Dekker, A.

    2014-01-01

    The quantitative role of sheep in the transmission of foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) is not well known. To estimate the role of sheep in the transmission of FMDV, a direct contact transmission experiment with 10 groups of animals each consisting of 2 infected lambs and 1 contact calf was

  5. Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus 2C Is a Hexameric AAA+ Protein with a Coordinated ATP Hydrolysis Mechanism

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sweeney, Trevor; Cisnetto, Valentina; Bose, Daniel

    2010-01-01

    Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV), a positive sense, single-stranded RNA virus, causes a highly contagious disease in cloven-hoofed livestock. Like other picornaviruses, FMDV has a conserved 2C protein assigned to the superfamily 3 helicases a group of AAA+ ATPases that has a predicted N-termin...

  6. Resource Estimations in Contingency Planning for Foot-And-Mouth Disease

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Boklund, Anette; Sten, Mortensen; Holm Johansen, Maren

    Preparedness planning for a veterinary crisis is important to be fast and effective in the eradication of disease. For countries with a large export of animals and animal products, each extra day in an epidemic will cost millions of euros due to the closure of export markets. This is important....... It was estimated that the need for personnel would peak on day 7 with a requirement of approximately 170 veterinarians, 70 technicians and 45 administrative staff. However, the need for personnel in the Danish Emergency Management Agency (responsible for the hygiene barrier and initial cleaning and disinfection...

  7. Molecular characterization of SAT 2 foot-and-mouth disease virus from post-outbreak slaughtered animals: implications for disease control in Uganda

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Balinda, Sheila N; Belsham, Graham; Masembe, Charles

    2010-01-01

    In Uganda, limiting the extent of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) spread during outbreaks involves short term measures such as ring vaccination and restrictions to the movement of livestock and their products to and from the affected areas. In this study, the presence of FMD virus RNA was investigated...

  8. Epidemic as a natural process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koivu-Jolma, Mikko; Annila, Arto

    2018-05-01

    Mathematical epidemiology is a well-recognized discipline to model infectious diseases. It also provides guidance for public health officials to limit outbreaks. Nevertheless, epidemics take societies by surprise every now and then, for example, when the Ebola virus epidemic raged seemingly unrestrained in Western Africa. We provide insight to this capricious character of nature by describing the epidemic as a natural process, i.e., a phenomenon governed by thermodynamics. Our account, based on statistical mechanics of open systems, clarifies that it is impossible to predict accurately epidemic courses because everything depends on everything else. Nonetheless, the thermodynamic theory yields a comprehensive and analytical view of the epidemic. The tenet subsumes various processes in a scale-free manner from the molecular to the societal levels. The holistic view accentuates overarching procedures in arresting and eradicating epidemics. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Strategies for differentiating infection in vaccinated animals (DIVA) for foot-and-mouth disease, classical swine fever and avian influenza

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Uttenthal, Åse; Parida, Satya; Rasmussen, Thomas Bruun

    2010-01-01

    for the presence of infection. This literature review describes the current knowledge on the use of DIVA diagnostic strategies for three important transboundary animal diseases: foot-and-mouth disease in cloven-hoofed animals, classical swine fever in pigs and avian influenza in poultry....

  10. Accuracy of Herdsmen Reporting versus Serologic Testing for Estimating Foot-and-Mouth Disease Prevalence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Handel, Ian G.; Tanya, Vincent N.; Hamman, Saidou M.; Nfon, Charles; Bergman, Ingrid E.; Malirat, Viviana; Sorensen, Karl J.; Bronsvoort, Barend M. de C.

    2014-01-01

    Herdsman-reported disease prevalence is widely used in veterinary epidemiologic studies, especially for diseases with visible external lesions; however, the accuracy of such reports is rarely validated. Thus, we used latent class analysis in a Bayesian framework to compare sensitivity and specificity of herdsman reporting with virus neutralization testing and use of 3 nonstructural protein ELISAs for estimates of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) prevalence on the Adamawa plateau of Cameroon in 2000. Herdsman-reported estimates in this FMD-endemic area were comparable to those obtained from serologic testing. To harness to this cost-effective resource of monitoring emerging infectious diseases, we suggest that estimates of the sensitivity and specificity of herdsmen reporting should be done in parallel with serologic surveys of other animal diseases. PMID:25417556

  11. Patterns, risk factors and characteristics of reported and perceived foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in Uganda

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ayebazibwe, Chrisostom; Tjørnehøj, Kirsten; Mwiine, Frank N.

    2010-01-01

    Patterns of outbreaks of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in Uganda were elucidated from spatial and temporal retrospective data retrieved from monthly reports from District Veterinary Officers (DVOs) to the central administration for the years spanning 2001–2008. An assessment of perceived FMD...

  12. Vaccination of pigs two weeks before infection significantly reduces transmission of foot-and-mouth disease virus

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Eble, P.L.; Bouma, A.; Bruin, de M.G.M.; Hemert-Kluitenberg, van F.; Oirschot, van J.T.; Dekker, A.

    2004-01-01

    The objective of this study was to investigate whether and at what time interval could vaccination reduce transmission of foot-and-Mouth disease virus (FMDV) among pigs. Reduction of virus transmission by vaccination was determined experimentally. Transmission of FMDV was studied in three groups of

  13. Epidemic disease decimates amphibian abundance, species diversity, and evolutionary history in the highlands of central Panama.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crawford, Andrew J; Lips, Karen R; Bermingham, Eldredge

    2010-08-03

    Amphibian populations around the world are experiencing unprecedented declines attributed to a chytrid fungal pathogen, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis. Despite the severity of the crisis, quantitative analyses of the effects of the epidemic on amphibian abundance and diversity have been unavailable as a result of the lack of equivalent data collected before and following disease outbreak. We present a community-level assessment combining long-term field surveys and DNA barcode data describing changes in abundance and evolutionary diversity within the amphibian community of El Copé, Panama, following a disease epidemic and mass-mortality event. The epidemic reduced taxonomic, lineage, and phylogenetic diversity similarly. We discovered that 30 species were lost, including five undescribed species, representing 41% of total amphibian lineage diversity in El Copé. These extirpations represented 33% of the evolutionary history of amphibians within the community, and variation in the degree of population loss and decline among species was random with respect to the community phylogeny. Our approach provides a fast, economical, and informative analysis of loss in a community whether measured by species or phylogenetic diversity.

  14. Foot-and-mouth disease virus : the role of infection routes and species differences in the transmission of FMDV

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bravo De Rueda Cabrera, C.

    2015-01-01

    ÁFoot-and-mouth disease is a contagious viral disease of cloven-hoofed animals (e.g. cattle, sheep, pigs) and can cause severe economic losses to the farm animal industries. The aim of this thesis was to quantify underlying mechanisms regarding transmission of FMDV. With data from past animal

  15. Challenges of Generating and Maintaining Protective Vaccine-Induced Immune Responses for Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus in Pigs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lyons, Nicholas A.; Lyoo, Young S.; King, Donald P.; Paton, David J.

    2016-01-01

    Vaccination can play a central role in the control of outbreaks of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) by reducing both the impact of clinical disease and the extent of virus transmission between susceptible animals. Recent incursions of exotic FMD virus lineages into several East Asian countries have highlighted the difficulties of generating and maintaining an adequate immune response in vaccinated pigs. Factors that impact vaccine performance include (i) the potency, antigenic payload, and formulation of a vaccine; (ii) the antigenic match between the vaccine and the heterologous circulating field strain; and (iii) the regime (timing, frequency, and herd-level coverage) used to administer the vaccine. This review collates data from studies that have evaluated the performance of foot-and-mouth disease virus vaccines at the individual and population level in pigs and identifies research priorities that could provide new insights to improve vaccination in the future. PMID:27965966

  16. Passive immunization of pigs with bispecific llama single-domain antibody fragments against foot-and-mouth disease and porcine immunoglobulin

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Harmsen, M.M.; Fijten, H.P.D.; Dekker, A.; Eble, P.L.

    2008-01-01

    Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a contagious viral disease of cloven-hoofed animals that occasionally causes outbreaks in Europe. We aim to develop an immunotherapy that confers rapid protection against FMD in outbreak situations. For this purpose, we previously isolated llama single-domain antibody

  17. Trench mouth

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... gingivae). The term trench mouth comes from World War I, when this infection was common among soldiers " ... mouth include: Emotional stress Poor oral hygiene Poor nutrition Smoking Throat, tooth, or mouth infections Trench mouth ...

  18. Scenarios for eradicating foot-and-mouth disease

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bos, E.J.; Leeuwen, van M.G.A.; Vlieger, de J.J.

    2001-01-01

    Research project commissioned by the Ministery of Agriculture, Nature Management and Fisheries. With the help of desk-research and input-output analysis quantitative information is assembled about the differences in cost for agribusiness and tourism of two eradication scenarios for foot-and-mouth

  19. Serological response of pigs to a standard and increased dose of foot-and-mouth disease vaccine

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sims, L.D.; Dyrting, K.C.; Wong, K.W.

    2000-01-01

    Two randomly allocated age-matched groups of 17 conventionally reared pigs derived from vaccinated sows were vaccinated at 10 and 14 weeks of age with a commercially available foot-and-mouth disease vaccine, using either a 1 mL dose or a 3 mL dose. A control group of four pigs was left unvaccinated. Pigs were monitored at regular intervals from birth to 26 weeks of age for antibodies to FMD Type O virus using a liquid phase blocking ELISA. At 12 weeks post vaccination, significantly more pigs vaccinated twice with 3 mL of vaccine had developed antibodies against Type O foot-and-mouth disease virus (at an ELISA titre of 90 or greater) than those vaccinated twice with 1 mL of vaccine (chi-squared test, p = 0.006). Overall, the response to vaccination was poor in both groups of pigs. Four weeks after the first dose of vaccine only four pigs had detectable antibody against the virus. Twelve weeks after the second dose of vaccine only 60% of pigs given the 3 mL dose and 15% of pigs given the 1 mL dose had ELISA titres of 90 or greater. Maternal antibody is considered to have played a role in this poor response, as it was present in 27 of the 34 vaccinated pigs at the time of first vaccination. Two pigs in the unvaccinated control group developed a low level antibody response (antibody titre <90). Infection with field virus was considered a highly unlikely cause of this. These results show, that under field conditions using a widely adopted protocol not all pigs vaccinated develop antibody to foot-and-mouth disease. This, in part, may explain why vaccination programmes against this disease in Hong Kong seem to have a limited impact. The results also suggest, that an increased dose of vaccine has a positive effect on the humoral immune response against FMD virus and may improve protection against this disease. Timing of vaccination needs to be re-evaluated to reduce the impact of maternally derived antibodies. (author)

  20. Evaluation of a genetically modified foot-and-mouth disease virus vaccine candidate generated by reverse genetics

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Background Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is the most economically important and highly contagious disease of cloven-hoofed animals worldwide. Control of the disease has been mainly based on large-scale vaccinations with whole-virus inactivated vaccines. In recent years, a series of outbreaks of type O FMD occurred in China (including Chinese Taipei, Chinese Hong Kong) posed a tremendous threat to Chinese animal husbandry. Its causative agent, type O FMDV, has evolved into three topotypes (East–South Asia (ME-SA), Southeast Asia (SEA), Cathay (CHY)) in these regions, which represents an important obstacle to disease control. The available FMD vaccine in China shows generally good protection against ME-SA and SEA topotype viruses infection, but affords insufficient protection against some variants of the CHY topotype. Therefore, the choice of a new vaccine strain is of fundamental importance. Results The present study describes the generation of a full-length infectious cDNA clone of FMDV vaccine strain and a genetically modified virus with some amino acid substitutions in antigenic sites 1, 3, and 4, based on the established infectious clone. The recombinant viruses had similar growth properties to the wild O/HN/CHA/93 virus. All swine immunized with inactivated vaccine prepared from the O/HN/CHA/93 were fully protected from challenge with the viruses of ME-SA and SEA topotypes and partially protected against challenge with the virus of CHY topotype at 28 days post-immunization. In contrast, the swine inoculated with the genetically modified vaccine were completely protected from the infection of viruses of the three topotypes. Conclusions Some amino acid substitutions in the FMDV vaccine strain genome did not have an effect on the ability of viral replication in vitro. The vaccine prepared from genetically modified FMDV by reverse genetics significantly improved the protective efficacy to the variant of the CHY topotype, compared with the wild O/HN/CHA/93 virus

  1. Evaluation of a genetically modified foot-and-mouth disease virus vaccine candidate generated by reverse genetics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li Pinghua

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD is the most economically important and highly contagious disease of cloven-hoofed animals worldwide. Control of the disease has been mainly based on large-scale vaccinations with whole-virus inactivated vaccines. In recent years, a series of outbreaks of type O FMD occurred in China (including Chinese Taipei, Chinese Hong Kong posed a tremendous threat to Chinese animal husbandry. Its causative agent, type O FMDV, has evolved into three topotypes (East–South Asia (ME-SA, Southeast Asia (SEA, Cathay (CHY in these regions, which represents an important obstacle to disease control. The available FMD vaccine in China shows generally good protection against ME-SA and SEA topotype viruses infection, but affords insufficient protection against some variants of the CHY topotype. Therefore, the choice of a new vaccine strain is of fundamental importance. Results The present study describes the generation of a full-length infectious cDNA clone of FMDV vaccine strain and a genetically modified virus with some amino acid substitutions in antigenic sites 1, 3, and 4, based on the established infectious clone. The recombinant viruses had similar growth properties to the wild O/HN/CHA/93 virus. All swine immunized with inactivated vaccine prepared from the O/HN/CHA/93 were fully protected from challenge with the viruses of ME-SA and SEA topotypes and partially protected against challenge with the virus of CHY topotype at 28 days post-immunization. In contrast, the swine inoculated with the genetically modified vaccine were completely protected from the infection of viruses of the three topotypes. Conclusions Some amino acid substitutions in the FMDV vaccine strain genome did not have an effect on the ability of viral replication in vitro. The vaccine prepared from genetically modified FMDV by reverse genetics significantly improved the protective efficacy to the variant of the CHY topotype, compared with the

  2. The epidemic of Tuberculosis on vaccinated population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Syahrini, Intan; Sriwahyuni; Halfiani, Vera; Meurah Yuni, Syarifah; Iskandar, Taufiq; Rasudin; Ramli, Marwan

    2017-09-01

    Tuberculosis is an infectious disease which has caused a large number of mortality in Indonesia. This disease is caused by Mycrobacterium tuberculosis. Besides affecting lung, this disease also affects other organs such as lymph gland, intestine, kidneys, uterus, bone, and brain. This article discusses the epidemic of tuberculosis through employing the SEIR model. Here, the population is divided into four compartments which are susceptible, exposed, infected and recovered. The susceptible population is further grouped into two which are vaccinated group and unvaccinated group. The behavior of the epidemic is investigated through analysing the equilibrium of the model. The result shows that administering vaccine to the susceptible population contributes to the reduction of the tuberculosis epidemic rate.

  3. Characterization of a chimeric foot-and-mouth disease virus bearing bovine rhinitis B virus leader proteinase

    Science.gov (United States)

    Our recent study has shown that bovine rhinovirus type 2 (BRV2), a new member of the Aphthovirus genus, shares many motifs and sequence similarities with foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV). Despite low sequence conservation (36percent amino acid identity) and N- and C-terminus folding differences,...

  4. Characteristics of a foot-and-mouth disease virus with a partial VP1 G-H loop deletion in experimentally infected cattle

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fowler, Veronica; Bashiruddin, John B.; Belsham, Graham

    2014-01-01

    Previous work in cattle illustrated the protective efficacy and negative marker potential of a A serotype foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) vaccine prepared from a virus lacking a significant portion of the VP1 G-H loop (termed A(−)). Since this deletion also includes the arginine-glycine-aspar......Previous work in cattle illustrated the protective efficacy and negative marker potential of a A serotype foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) vaccine prepared from a virus lacking a significant portion of the VP1 G-H loop (termed A(−)). Since this deletion also includes the arginine...

  5. Site-directed mutagenesis of the foot-and-mouth disease virus RNA-polymerase gene

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brindeiro, R.M.; Soares, M.A.; Vianna, A.L.M.; Pontes, O.H.A. de; Pacheco, A.B.F.; Almeida, D.F. de; Tanuri, A.

    1991-01-01

    The foot-and-mouth disease virus RNA-polymerase gene was mutagenised in its active site. Pst I digestion of the polymerase gene (cDNA) generated a 790 bp fragment containing the critical sequence. This fragment was subcloned in M13mp8 for mutagenesis method. The polymerase gene was then reconstructed and subcloned in pUC19. These mutants will be used to study the enzyme structure and activity and to develop intracellular immunization assays in eukaryotic cells. (author)

  6. Management of deer for experimental studies with foor-and-mouth disease virus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gibbs, E P; McDiarmid, A; Rowe, J J

    1975-06-07

    Red, sika, fallow, roe and muntjac deer adapted to captivity in experimental units designed for working with foot-and-mouth disease. The red, sika and fallow deer readily accepted rolled oats and hay as their staple diet. This diet was replaced for the roe and muntjac deer with flaked maize, calf starter pellets and green browse. Etorphine/acepromazine ans xylazine were found to be suitable sedatives for detailed examination of the tongue and oral cavity of the various species of deer and gave adequate analgesia for the inoculation and collection of virus samples.

  7. Disease-induced mortality in density-dependent discrete-time S-I-S epidemic models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franke, John E; Yakubu, Abdul-Aziz

    2008-12-01

    The dynamics of simple discrete-time epidemic models without disease-induced mortality are typically characterized by global transcritical bifurcation. We prove that in corresponding models with disease-induced mortality a tiny number of infectious individuals can drive an otherwise persistent population to extinction. Our model with disease-induced mortality supports multiple attractors. In addition, we use a Ricker recruitment function in an SIS model and obtained a three component discrete Hopf (Neimark-Sacker) cycle attractor coexisting with a fixed point attractor. The basin boundaries of the coexisting attractors are fractal in nature, and the example exhibits sensitive dependence of the long-term disease dynamics on initial conditions. Furthermore, we show that in contrast to corresponding models without disease-induced mortality, the disease-free state dynamics do not drive the disease dynamics.

  8. Mouth and dental disorders

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Baat, C.; van der Waal, I.; Jackson, S.H.D.; Jansen, P.A.F.; Mangoni, A.A.

    2009-01-01

    Summary This chapter contains sections titled: • Introduction • Periodontal disease • Dental caries • Odontogenic infections • Alveolar osteitis • Xerostomia and hyposalivation • Candidiasis • Angular cheilitis • Denture stomatitis • Burning mouth syndrome • Recurrent aphthous stomatitis • Recurrent

  9. Different Epidemic Models on Complex Networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Haifeng; Small, Michael; Fu Xinchu

    2009-01-01

    Models for diseases spreading are not just limited to SIS or SIR. For instance, for the spreading of AIDS/HIV, the susceptible individuals can be classified into different cases according to their immunity, and similarly, the infected individuals can be sorted into different classes according to their infectivity. Moreover, some diseases may develop through several stages. Many authors have shown that the individuals' relation can be viewed as a complex network. So in this paper, in order to better explain the dynamical behavior of epidemics, we consider different epidemic models on complex networks, and obtain the epidemic threshold for each case. Finally, we present numerical simulations for each case to verify our results.

  10. Disease load at conception predicts survival in later epidemics in a historical French-Canadian cohort, suggesting functional trans-generational effects in humans.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kai Willführ

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: Functional trans-generational and parental effects are potentially important determinants of health in several mammals. For humans, the existing evidence is weak. We investigate whether disease exposure triggers functional trans-generational response effects among humans by analyzing siblings who were conceived under different disease loads, and comparing their mortality in later epidemics. Under functional trans-generational response mechanisms, we expect that those who were conceived under high pathogenic stress load will have relatively low mortality during a later epidemic. METHODS: We use data from the Registre de la Population du Québec Ancien, which covers the historical population living in St. Lawrence Valley, Québec, Canada. Children born in 1705-1724 were grouped according to their exposure during conception to the measles 1714-15 epidemic. The 1714-15 epidemic was followed by two mortality crises in 1729-1734. The cause of the first crises in 1729 is not exactly known. The second crisis in 1732 was caused by a smallpox epidemic. Using proportional hazard Cox regression models with multivariate adjustment and with fixed-effects approach that compare siblings, we analyze whether mortality in 1729-1734 is affected by exposure to the 1714-15 epidemic. RESULTS: Children who were conceived during the peak of the measles epidemic of 1714-15 exhibited significantly lower mortality during the 1729-1734 crisis than those who were born before the 1714-15 epidemic (mortality hazard ratio 0.106, p<.05 in multivariate adjusted models; 0.142 p<.1 in sibling comparison models. CONCLUSIONS: The results are consistent with a trans-generational mechanism that functionally responds to pathogen stress and suggest that early disease exposure may be protective later in life. Alternative explanations for the mortality patterns are discussed and shown to be problematic.

  11. Evolutionary analysis of serotype A foot-and-mouth disease viruses circulating in Pakistan and Afghanistan during 2002–2009

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jamal, Syed Muhammad; Ferrari, Giancarlo; Ahmed, Safia

    2011-01-01

    Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is endemic in Pakistan and Afghanistan. Three different serotypes of the virus, namely O, A and Asia-1, are responsible for the outbreaks of this disease in these countries. In the present study, the nucleotide-coding sequences for the VP1 capsid protein (69 samples) ...

  12. Percolation and epidemics in random clustered networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Joel C.

    2009-08-01

    The social networks that infectious diseases spread along are typically clustered. Because of the close relation between percolation and epidemic spread, the behavior of percolation in such networks gives insight into infectious disease dynamics. A number of authors have studied percolation or epidemics in clustered networks, but the networks often contain preferential contacts in high degree nodes. We introduce a class of random clustered networks and a class of random unclustered networks with the same preferential mixing. Percolation in the clustered networks reduces the component sizes and increases the epidemic threshold compared to the unclustered networks.

  13. Predicting extinction rates in stochastic epidemic models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schwartz, Ira B; Billings, Lora; Dykman, Mark; Landsman, Alexandra

    2009-01-01

    We investigate the stochastic extinction processes in a class of epidemic models. Motivated by the process of natural disease extinction in epidemics, we examine the rate of extinction as a function of disease spread. We show that the effective entropic barrier for extinction in a susceptible–infected–susceptible epidemic model displays scaling with the distance to the bifurcation point, with an unusual critical exponent. We make a direct comparison between predictions and numerical simulations. We also consider the effect of non-Gaussian vaccine schedules, and show numerically how the extinction process may be enhanced when the vaccine schedules are Poisson distributed

  14. Proper Quality Control of Formulated Foot-and-Mouth Disease Vaccines in Countries with Prophylactic Vaccination is Necessary

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jamal, S.M.; Shah, S.I.; Ali, Q.; Mehmood, A.; Afzal, M.; Dekker, A.

    2014-01-01

    Vaccination is considered as an important tool to control foot-and-mouth disease (FMD). A good quality vaccine containing relevant serotypes and matching strains is a pre-requisite for vaccination to be effective. The present study investigated the quality of different brands of FMD vaccine

  15. Epidemics in interconnected small-world networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Liu, M.; Li, D.; Qin, P.; Liu, C.; Wang, H.; Wang, F.

    2015-01-01

    Networks can be used to describe the interconnections among individuals, which play an important role in the spread of disease. Although the small-world effect has been found to have a significant impact on epidemics in single networks, the small-world effect on epidemics in interconnected networks

  16. Glyphosate, Hard Water and Nephrotoxic Metals: Are They the Culprits Behind the Epidemic of Chronic Kidney Disease of Unknown Etiology in Sri Lanka?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jayasumana, Channa; Gunatilake, Sarath; Senanayake, Priyantha

    2014-01-01

    The current chronic kidney disease epidemic, the major health issue in the rice paddy farming areas in Sri Lanka has been the subject of many scientific and political debates over the last decade. Although there is no agreement among scientists about the etiology of the disease, a majority of them has concluded that this is a toxic nephropathy. None of the hypotheses put forward so far could explain coherently the totality of clinical, biochemical, histopathological findings, and the unique geographical distribution of the disease and its appearance in the mid-1990s. A strong association between the consumption of hard water and the occurrence of this special kidney disease has been observed, but the relationship has not been explained consistently. Here, we have hypothesized the association of using glyphosate, the most widely used herbicide in the disease endemic area and its unique metal chelating properties. The possible role played by glyphosate-metal complexes in this epidemic has not been given any serious consideration by investigators for the last two decades. Furthermore, it may explain similar kidney disease epidemics observed in Andra Pradesh (India) and Central America. Although glyphosate alone does not cause an epidemic of chronic kidney disease, it seems to have acquired the ability to destroy the renal tissues of thousands of farmers when it forms complexes with a localized geo environmental factor (hardness) and nephrotoxic metals. PMID:24562182

  17. Hand, foot and mouth disease: spatiotemporal transmission and climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jin-feng; Guo, Yan-Sha; Christakos, George; Yang, Wei-Zhong; Liao, Yi-Lan; Li, Zhong-Jie; Li, Xiao-Zhou; Lai, Sheng-Jie; Chen, Hong-Yan

    2011-04-05

    The Hand-Foot-Mouth Disease (HFMD) is the most common infectious disease in China, its total incidence being around 500,000~1,000,000 cases per year. The composite space-time disease variation is the result of underlining attribute mechanisms that could provide clues about the physiologic and demographic determinants of disease transmission and also guide the appropriate allocation of medical resources to control the disease. HFMD cases were aggregated into 1456 counties and during a period of 11 months. Suspected climate attributes to HFMD were recorded monthly at 674 stations throughout the country and subsequently interpolated within 1456 × 11 cells across space-time (same as the number of HFMD cases) using the Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) method while taking into consideration the relevant uncertainty sources. The dimensionalities of the two datasets together with the integrated dataset combining the two previous ones are very high when the topologies of the space-time relationships between cells are taken into account. Using a self-organizing map (SOM) algorithm the dataset dimensionality was effectively reduced into 2 dimensions, while the spatiotemporal attribute structure was maintained. 16 types of spatiotemporal HFMD transmission were identified, and 3-4 high spatial incidence clusters of the HFMD types were found throughout China, which are basically within the scope of the monthly climate (precipitation) types. HFMD propagates in a composite space-time domain rather than showing a purely spatial and purely temporal variation. There is a clear relationship between HFMD occurrence and climate. HFMD cases are geographically clustered and closely linked to the monthly precipitation types of the region. The occurrence of the former depends on the later.

  18. Chest imaging characteristics of hand-foot-mouth disease in children

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ma Bo; Chen Ruigang; Dou Shewei; Zhu Xiaonian; Shi Dapeng

    2010-01-01

    Objective: To study radiological characteristics of hand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD) in children. Methods: The chest X-ray films of 1295 children patients of HFMD were analyzed, for the general X-ray manifestations and the evolution. Results: A total of 1427 films was obtained from all patients, in which 1203 cases were normal and 224 cases were abnormal. The interstitial changes characterized the abnormal group, mainly as increased and vague lung markings, increased hilar shadows (137 cases). The parenchyma changes appeared as patchy exudative shadows(49 cases). Short-term dynamic observation was applied in 62 cases, 38 cases pulmonary disease progression manifested as normal and the interstitial type changing into the parenchyma type and the mixed type, the localized type changing into the diffuse type. Conclusions: Most children patients of' HFMD showed normal chest films, while the abnormal patients were characterized by interstitial and parenchyma pulmonary edema. Serial chest X-ray examination and short-term dynamic observation were important to identify the severe cases and assess patients' condition. (authors)

  19. Urgent epidemic control mechanism for aviation networks

    KAUST Repository

    Peng, Chengbin; Wang, Shengbin; Shi, Meixia; Jin, Xiaogang

    2011-01-01

    In the current century, the highly developed transportation system can not only boost the economy, but also greatly accelerate the spreading of epidemics. While some epidemic diseases may infect quite a number of people ahead of our awareness, the health care resources such as vaccines and the medical staff are usually locally or even globally insufficient. In this research, with the network of major aviation routes as an example, we present a method to determine the optimal locations to allocate the medical service in order to minimize the impact of the infectious disease with limited resources. Specifically, we demonstrate that when the medical resources are insufficient, we should concentrate our efforts on the travelers with the objective of effectively controlling the spreading rate of the epidemic diseases. © 2011 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.

  20. Airborne spread of foot-and-mouth disease - Model intercomparison

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gloster, John; Jones, Andrew; Redington, Alison

    2010-01-01

    Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) spreads by direct contact between animals, by animal products (milk, meat and semen), by mechanical transfer on people or fomites and by the airborne route, with the relative importance of each mechanism depending on the particular outbreak characteristics....... Atmospheric dispersion models have been developed to assess airborne spread of FMDV in a number of countries, including the UK, Denmark, Australia, New Zealand, USA and Canada. These models were compared at a Workshop hosted by the Institute for Animal Health/Met Office in 2008. Each modeller was provided...... with data relating to the 1967 outbreak of FMD in Hampshire, UK, and asked to predict the spread of FMDV by the airborne route. A number of key issues emerged from the Workshop and subsequent modelling work: (1) in general all models predicted similar directions for livestock at risk, with much...

  1. Identification of H-2d Restricted T Cell Epitope of Foot-and-mouth Disease Virus Structural Protein VP1

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhang Zhong-Wang

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD is a highly contagious and devastating disease affecting livestock that causes significant financial losses. Therefore, safer and more effective vaccines are required against Foot-and-mouth disease virus(FMDV. The purpose of this study is to screen and identify an H-2d restricted T cell epitope from the virus structural protein VP1, which is present with FMD. We therefore provide a method and basis for studying a specific FMDV T cell epitope. Results A codon-optimized expression method was adopted for effective expression of VP1 protein in colon bacillus. We used foot-and-mouth disease standard positive serum was used for Western blot detection of its immunogenicity. The VP1 protein was used for immunizing BALB/c mice, and spleen lymphocytes were isolated. Then, a common in vitro training stimulus was conducted for potential H-2Dd, H-2Kd and H-2Ld restricted T cell epitope on VP1 proteins that were predicted and synthesized by using a bioinformatics method. The H-2Kd restricted T cell epitope pK1 (AYHKGPFTRL and the H-2Dd restricted T cell epitope pD7 (GFIMDRFVKI were identified using lymphocyte proliferation assays and IFN-γ ELISPOT experiments. Conclusions The results of this study lay foundation for studying the FMDV immune process, vaccine development, among other things. These results also showed that, to identify viral T cell epitopes, the combined application of bioinformatics and molecular biology methods is effective.

  2. Untangling the Interplay between Epidemic Spread and Transmission Network Dynamics.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christel Kamp

    Full Text Available The epidemic spread of infectious diseases is ubiquitous and often has a considerable impact on public health and economic wealth. The large variability in the spatio-temporal patterns of epidemics prohibits simple interventions and requires a detailed analysis of each epidemic with respect to its infectious agent and the corresponding routes of transmission. To facilitate this analysis, we introduce a mathematical framework which links epidemic patterns to the topology and dynamics of the underlying transmission network. The evolution, both in disease prevalence and transmission network topology, is derived from a closed set of partial differential equations for infections without allowing for recovery. The predictions are in excellent agreement with complementarily conducted agent-based simulations. The capacity of this new method is demonstrated in several case studies on HIV epidemics in synthetic populations: it allows us to monitor the evolution of contact behavior among healthy and infected individuals and the contributions of different disease stages to the spreading of the epidemic. This gives both direction to and a test bed for targeted intervention strategies for epidemic control. In conclusion, this mathematical framework provides a capable toolbox for the analysis of epidemics from first principles. This allows for fast, in silico modeling--and manipulation--of epidemics and is especially powerful if complemented with adequate empirical data for parameterization.

  3. The wisdom of crowds in action: Forecasting epidemic diseases with a web-based prediction market system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Eldon Y; Tung, Chen-Yuan; Chang, Shu-Hsun

    2016-08-01

    The quest for an effective system capable of monitoring and predicting the trends of epidemic diseases is a critical issue for communities worldwide. With the prevalence of Internet access, more and more researchers today are using data from both search engines and social media to improve the prediction accuracy. In particular, a prediction market system (PMS) exploits the wisdom of crowds on the Internet to effectively accomplish relatively high accuracy. This study presents the architecture of a PMS and demonstrates the matching mechanism of logarithmic market scoring rules. The system was implemented to predict infectious diseases in Taiwan with the wisdom of crowds in order to improve the accuracy of epidemic forecasting. The PMS architecture contains three design components: database clusters, market engine, and Web applications. The system accumulated knowledge from 126 health professionals for 31 weeks to predict five disease indicators: the confirmed cases of dengue fever, the confirmed cases of severe and complicated influenza, the rate of enterovirus infections, the rate of influenza-like illnesses, and the confirmed cases of severe and complicated enterovirus infection. Based on the winning ratio, the PMS predicts the trends of three out of five disease indicators more accurately than does the existing system that uses the five-year average values of historical data for the same weeks. In addition, the PMS with the matching mechanism of logarithmic market scoring rules is easy to understand for health professionals and applicable to predict all the five disease indicators. The PMS architecture of this study affords organizations and individuals to implement it for various purposes in our society. The system can continuously update the data and improve prediction accuracy in monitoring and forecasting the trends of epidemic diseases. Future researchers could replicate and apply the PMS demonstrated in this study to more infectious diseases and wider

  4. Stability and disease persistence in an age-structured SIS epidemic model with vertical transmission and proportionate mixing assumption

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    El-Doma, M.

    2001-02-01

    The stability of the endemic equilibrium of an SIS age-structured epidemic model of a vertically as well as horizontally transmitted disease is investigated when the force of infection is of proportionate mixing assumption type. We also investigate the uniform weak disease persistence. (author)

  5. Identification of a novel cell culture adaptation site on the capsid of foot-and-mouth disease virus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chamberlain, Kyle; Fowler, Veronica L; Barnett, Paul V; Gold, Sarah; Wadsworth, Jemma; Knowles, Nick J; Jackson, Terry

    2015-09-01

    Vaccination remains the most effective tool for control of foot-and-mouth disease both in endemic countries and as an emergency preparedness for new outbreaks. Foot-and-mouth disease vaccines are chemically inactivated virus preparations and the production of new vaccines is critically dependent upon cell culture adaptation of field viruses, which can prove problematic. A major driver of cell culture adaptation is receptor availability. Field isolates of foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) use RGD-dependent integrins as receptors, whereas cell culture adaptation often selects for variants with altered receptor preferences. Previously, two independent sites on the capsid have been identified where mutations are associated with improved cell culture growth. One is a shallow depression formed by the three major structural proteins (VP1-VP3) where mutations create a heparan sulphate (HS)-binding site (the canonical HS-binding site). The other involves residues of VP1 and is located at the fivefold symmetry axis. For some viruses, changes at this site result in HS binding; for others, the receptors are unknown. Here, we report the identification of a novel site on VP2 where mutations resulted in an expanded cell tropism of a vaccine variant of A/IRN/87 (called A - ). Furthermore, we show that introducing the same mutations into a different type A field virus (A/TUR/2/2006) resulted in the same expanded cell culture tropism as the A/IRN/87 A -  vaccine variant. These observations add to the evidence for multiple cell attachment mechanisms for FMDV and may be useful for vaccine manufacture when cell culture adaptation proves difficult.

  6. Some models for epidemics of vector-transmitted diseases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fred Brauer

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Vector-transmitted diseases such as dengue fever and chikungunya have been spreading rapidly in many parts of the world. The Zika virus has been known since 1947 and invaded South America in 2013. It can be transmitted not only by (mosquito vectors but also directly through sexual contact. Zika has developed into a serious global health problem because, while most cases are asymptomatic or very light, babies born to Zika - infected mothers may develop microcephaly and other very serious birth defects.We formulate and analyze two epidemic models for vector-transmitted diseases, one appropriate for dengue and chikungunya fever outbreaks and one that includes direct transmission appropriate for Zika virus outbreaks. This is especially important because the Zika virus is the first example of a disease that can be spread both indirectly through a vector and directly (through sexual contact. In both cases, we obtain expressions for the basic reproduction number and show how to use the initial exponential growth rate to estimate the basic reproduction number. However, for the model that includes direct transmission some additional data would be needed to identify the fraction of cases transmitted directly. Data for the 2015 Zika virus outbreak in Barranquilla, Colombia has been used to fit parameters to the model developed here and to estimate the basic reproduction number.

  7. Gender Dependence in Mouth Opening Dimensions in Normal Adult Malaysians Population

    OpenAIRE

    Shaari, Ramizu; Hwa, Teoh Eng; Rahman, Shaifulizan Abdul

    2011-01-01

    While measurement of mouth opening is an important clinica examination in diagnosis and management of oral disease, data on non-Western populations are limited. This study was therefore conducted to determine the range of mouth opening in normal Malaysian male and female adults. A total of 34 dental students of Universiti Sains Malaysia (USM) were chosen randomly and their maximum mouth opening was measured after being asked to open their mouth sufficiently to accommodate three fingers. Measu...

  8. Stochastic analysis of epidemics on adaptive time varying networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kotnis, Bhushan; Kuri, Joy

    2013-06-01

    Many studies investigating the effect of human social connectivity structures (networks) and human behavioral adaptations on the spread of infectious diseases have assumed either a static connectivity structure or a network which adapts itself in response to the epidemic (adaptive networks). However, human social connections are inherently dynamic or time varying. Furthermore, the spread of many infectious diseases occur on a time scale comparable to the time scale of the evolving network structure. Here we aim to quantify the effect of human behavioral adaptations on the spread of asymptomatic infectious diseases on time varying networks. We perform a full stochastic analysis using a continuous time Markov chain approach for calculating the outbreak probability, mean epidemic duration, epidemic reemergence probability, etc. Additionally, we use mean-field theory for calculating epidemic thresholds. Theoretical predictions are verified using extensive simulations. Our studies have uncovered the existence of an “adaptive threshold,” i.e., when the ratio of susceptibility (or infectivity) rate to recovery rate is below the threshold value, adaptive behavior can prevent the epidemic. However, if it is above the threshold, no amount of behavioral adaptations can prevent the epidemic. Our analyses suggest that the interaction patterns of the infected population play a major role in sustaining the epidemic. Our results have implications on epidemic containment policies, as awareness campaigns and human behavioral responses can be effective only if the interaction levels of the infected populace are kept in check.

  9. Symposium: international challenges and perspectives: internationalism and survival of foot-and-mouth disease virus in cattle and food products.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blackwell, J H

    1980-06-01

    Foot-and-mouth disease is a serious world-wide economic disease of livestock and diverse animal species. The closing of borders to infected countries is a frequent aftermath of disease outbreaks. Historically, animals and animal products have been implicated as vehicles for transmission of the disease. Control programs encompass stringent importation policies, vaccination, quarantine, and slaughter. Joint efforts have been instituted successfully in previous control campaigns and would be the logical approach to large-scale eradication schemas.

  10. Detecting internet search activity for mouth cancer in Ireland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murray, G; O'Rourke, C; Hogan, J; Fenton, J E

    2016-02-01

    Mouth Cancer Awareness Day in Ireland was launched in September 2010 by survivors of the disease to promote public awareness of suspicious signs of oral cancer and to provide free dental examinations. To find out whether its introduction had increased public interest in the disease, we used Google Trends to find out how often users in Ireland had searched for "oral cancer" and "mouth cancer" across all Google domains between January 2005 and December 2013. The number of internet searches for these cancers has increased significantly (p increase in public awareness of mouth cancer could result in earlier presentation and better prognosis. Copyright © 2015 The British Association of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Capsid coding sequences of foot-and-mouth disease viruses are determinants of pathogenicity in pigs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lohse, Louise; Jackson, Terry; Bøtner, Anette; Belsham, Graham J

    2012-05-24

    The surface exposed capsid proteins, VP1, VP2 and VP3, of foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) determine its antigenicity and the ability of the virus to interact with host-cell receptors. Hence, modification of these structural proteins may alter the properties of the virus.In the present study we compared the pathogenicity of different FMDVs in young pigs. In total 32 pigs, 7-weeks-old, were exposed to virus, either by direct inoculation or through contact with inoculated pigs, using cell culture adapted (O1K B64), chimeric (O1K/A-TUR and O1K/O-UKG) or field strain (O-UKG/34/2001) viruses. The O1K B64 virus and the two chimeric viruses are identical to each other except for the capsid coding region.Animals exposed to O1K B64 did not exhibit signs of disease, while pigs exposed to each of the other viruses showed typical clinical signs of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD). All pigs infected with the O1K/O-UKG chimera or the field strain (O-UKG/34/2001) developed fulminant disease. Furthermore, 3 of 4 in-contact pigs exposed to the O1K/O-UKG virus died in the acute phase of infection, likely from myocardial infection. However, in the group exposed to the O1K/A-TUR chimeric virus, only 1 pig showed symptoms of disease within the time frame of the experiment (10 days). All pigs that developed clinical disease showed a high level of viral RNA in serum and infected pigs that survived the acute phase of infection developed a serotype specific antibody response. It is concluded that the capsid coding sequences are determinants of FMDV pathogenicity in pigs.

  12. Prevalence of enteroviruses in healthy populations and excretion of pathogens in patients with hand, foot, and mouth disease in a highly endemic area of southwest China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qiang Wu

    Full Text Available Etiological carriers and the excretion of the pathogens causing hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD in healthy persons, patients, and asymptomatic persons infected with HFMD as ongoing infection sources may play an important role in perpetuating and spreading epidemics of HFMD. The aims of this study were to determine the carrier status of EV-A71 and CV-A16 in healthy populations, as well as the duration of EV-A71 and CV-A16 shedding in the stools of HFMD patients in an epidemic area of southwest China. A cross-sectional study and a follow-up study were conducted in three HFMD endemic counties of Yunnan Province. Six hundred sixty-seven healthy subjects were recruited to participate in the cross-sectional study, and two stool specimens were collected from each subject. Among the healthy subjects, 90 (13.5% tested positive for viral isolation, but neither EV-A71 nor CV-A16 was detected in healthy individuals. Of the 150 patients with probable HFMD, 55.3% (83/150 tested positive for viral isolation with presented serotypes such as EV-A71 (51.81%, 43/83, CV-A16 (32.53%, 27/83, other EVs (13.25%, 11/83, and mixed EV-A71 and CV-A16 (2.41%, 2/83. The longest duration of EV-A71 and CV-A16 shedding in stool specimens from patients with HFMD was >46 days after onset. The positive rate of EV-A71 in the stool specimens of confirmed patients dropped to 50% by the end of the third week, and the same occurred with CV-A16 by the end of approximately the seventh week after onset. Although carriers of major causative agents of HFMD in healthy populations are fewer in number, the prolonged shedding of pathogens in patients with HFMD may serve as an important factor in perpetuating and spreading HFMD epidemics.

  13. The foot and mouth disease network in the southern cone of South America: an example of regional governance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corrales Irrazábal, H A

    2012-08-01

    The fact that foot and mouth disease is highly contagious, easily spread and of major commercial importance makes it a redoubtable challenge for animal health in South American countries and the world over. A number of factors impact directly on the effectiveness of national programmes to eradicate foot and mouth disease. Therefore, in order to meet the challenges posed by today's globalised world, it is of the utmost importance that national level eradication programmes be considered state policies and that they be the subject of broad political agreement at the highest level and consolidated as regional programmes between national Veterinary Services. The programmes, agreements and technical cooperation projects established jointly by Member Countries of the Southern Common Market (MERCOSUR) were a key factor in building management capacity to control foot and mouth disease in the area. Another key factor has been a partnership with one of the most sensitive sectors--the private production sector. Its active and responsible participation in operational functions has done much to strengthen and ensure the competitive development of South American countries and consolidate their role as global beef exporters. However, to prevent further outbreaks it is essential to maintain and reinforce the structure of national programmes and to have strong and highly trained Veterinary Services and sufficient funding to ensure efficient and sustainable plans. These plans must enable Veterinary Services, by means of good governance, to implement effective measures in the areas of animal health and international trade in animals and animal products/by-products, thereby achieving rapid and more equitable social and economic development.

  14. [Glossodynia or burning mouth syndrome: equivalence or difference].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Redinova, T L; Redinov, I S; Val'kov, V A; Zlobina, O A; Kozhevnikov, S V

    2014-01-01

    The term "Burning Mouth Syndrome (BMS)" is being used much more often than "Glossodynia", complicating diagnostic and treatment tactic choice. The aim of the study was to determine the difference between "Glossodynia" and "BMS" considering absence or presence of intraoral metal prosthetic devices and burning sensation in the mouth. To establish the frequency of glossodynia and BMS 2355 patient records were analyzed admitting consultation for oral diseases for the last 10 years. Clinically we examined 408 patients aged 40 to 70. The research results showed that 17% of patients complained of "burning mouth": 10.2% of them had these symptoms due to oral mucosa diseases; 58.0% had glossodynia, 27.4% had discomfort because of intolerance to metal prosthodontic materials and 4.4% had combined pathology. Glossodynia and intolerance to metal prosthodontic materials had much in common in terms of clinical features, but the last one may be specified by changes in saliva composition. BMS thus proved to be the common definition corresponding to various diseases of oral mucosa and intolerance to intraoral metal appliances, while glossoldynia is a distinct neurogenic disease which is difficult to treat and requires comprehensive approach involving neurologist and physician.

  15. Communicating risk and promoting disease mitigation measures in epidemics and emerging disease settings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schiavo, Renata; May Leung, May; Brown, Mason

    2014-03-01

    This review aims to identify and assess evidence on interventions to communicate risk and promote disease mitigation measures in epidemics and emerging disease outbreak settings. The study focuses on data that are relevant to low and middle-income country (LMIC) settings. We conducted a comprehensive literature search using five major electronic databases (Pubmed Medline, Biomed Central, EMBASE, Science of Citation Index, and Cochrane Library) and other sources to identify relevant studies published from January 2002 to July 2013. The review was guided by the socio-ecological model/perspective of public health and the ideation theory and focused on interventions at the community, healthcare, and multi-sectoral settings, which also reflect key intervention levels of the Ottawa Charter for Health Promotion. Eligible quantitative studies were selected according to specific study criteria and assessed using the Critical Appraisal Skills Program (CASP) framework. Conversely, qualitative studies, reviews, case studies, and editorials were not included. Studies were selected by two independent reviewers. Twenty-nine relevant studies from 16 countries were included. Most studies focused on a single intervention or intervention level, rather than multi-sectoral interventions. The majority of the evidence relates to programs aimed at behavioral and social results (or relevant intermediate steps) within a specific population group. Two studies included implications for improvements in health service delivery, two studies examined the intervention's impact on health systems-related outcomes, and three had also implications for environmental health outcomes. Cost- and health equity-related implications for select evidence were also discussed. The paucity of well-designed quantitative evaluations of interventions to communicate health risk and promote disease control measures in LMICs does not allow for any definitive conclusions. Yet, the review identified several promising

  16. The development of a massive open online course during the 2014-15 Ebola virus disease epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, Dabney P; Luffy, Samantha M; Parisi, Stephanie; Del Rio, Carlos

    2017-09-01

    Timely training was urgently needed at the onset of the 2014 Ebola virus disease epidemic. Massive open online courses (MOOCs) have grown in popularity, though little is known about their utility in time-sensitive situations, including infectious disease outbreaks. We created the first English language massive open online course on Ebola virus disease. Designed by a team representing various units of Emory University and six partner institutions, the six module course was aimed at a global general audience but also relevant for health care professionals. Over 7,000 learners from 170 countries participated in the initial course offering. More than a third of learners were from emerging economies, including seven percent from Africa, and another 13% from countries outside the United States who received individuals requiring treatment for Ebola virus disease. Creating and producing the first English language MOOC on EVD in a short time period required effective collaboration and strong coordination between subject matter and course development experts from Emory. Through these collaborative efforts, the development team was able to provide urgently needed training and educational materials while the epidemic of EVD continued to radiate through West Africa. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. New England Foot and Mouth Disease Tabletop Exercise

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hullinger, P

    2008-09-30

    The Multiscale Epidemiologic/Economic Simulation and Analysis (MESA) Decision Support System (DSS) is the product of investments that began in FY05 by the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Science and Technology Directorate and continue today with joint funding by both DHS and the US Department of Agriculture (USDA). The DSS consists of a coupled epidemiologic/economic model, a standalone graphical user interface (GUI) that supports both model setup and post-analysis, and a Scenario Bank archive to store all content related to foreign animal disease (FAD) studies (Figure 1). The MESA epi model is an object-oriented, agent-based, stochastic, spatio-temporal simulator that parametrically models FAD outbreaks and response strategies from initial disease introduction to conclusion over local, regional, and national scales. Through its output database, the epi model couples to an economic model that calculates farm-level impacts from animal infections, responsive control strategies and loss of trade. The MESA architecture contains a variety of internal models that implement the major components of the epi simulation, including disease introduction, intra-herd spread, inter-herd spread (direct and indirect), detection, and various control strategies (movement restrictions, culling, vaccination) in a highly configurable and extensible fashion. MESA will produce both overall and daily summary statistics for the outbreak, epidemic curves, and costs associated with the outbreak. This information can be used to reconstruct and analyze the course of the outbreak. Geographical information produced by MESA can be used to produce maps and movies as visual aids to understand the distribution characteristics of a simulated outbreak.

  18. Alzheimer Disease and Its Growing Epidemic: Risk Factors, Biomarkers, and the Urgent Need for Therapeutics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hickman, Richard A; Faustin, Arline; Wisniewski, Thomas

    2016-11-01

    Alzheimer disease (AD) represents one of the greatest medical challenges of this century; the condition is becoming increasingly prevalent worldwide and no effective treatments have been developed for this terminal disease. Because the disease manifests at a late stage after a long period of clinically silent neurodegeneration, knowledge of the modifiable risk factors and the implementation of biomarkers is crucial in the primary prevention of the disease and presymptomatic detection of AD, respectively. This article discusses the growing epidemic of AD and antecedent risk factors in the disease process. Disease biomarkers are discussed, and the implications that this may have for the treatment of this currently incurable disease. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Differences in the susceptibility of dromedary and Bactrian camels to foot-and-mouth disease virus

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larska, M.; Wernery, U.; Kinne, J.

    2009-01-01

    In this study, two sheep, eight dromedary camels and two Bactrian camels were inoculated with foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) type A SAU 22/92. Five naive dromedary camels and four sheep were kept in direct or indirect contact with the inoculated camels. The inoculated sheep, which served...... as positive controls, displayed typical moderate clinical signs of FMD and developed viraemia and high antibody titres. The presence of the virus was also detected in probang and mouth-swab samples for several days after inoculation. In contrast, the inoculated dromedary camels were not susceptible to FMDV...... type A infection. None of them showed clinical signs of FMD or developed viraemia or specific anti-FMDV antibodies despite the high dose of virus inoculated. All the contact sheep and contact dromedaries that were kept together with the inoculated camels remained virus-negative and did not seroconvert...

  20. Predicting the outbreak of hand, foot, and mouth disease in Nanjing, China: a time-series model based on weather variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Sijun; Chen, Jiaping; Wang, Jianming; Wu, Zhuchao; Wu, Weihua; Xu, Zhiwei; Hu, Wenbiao; Xu, Fei; Tong, Shilu; Shen, Hongbing

    2017-10-01

    Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is a significant public health issue in China and an accurate prediction of epidemic can improve the effectiveness of HFMD control. This study aims to develop a weather-based forecasting model for HFMD using the information on climatic variables and HFMD surveillance in Nanjing, China. Daily data on HFMD cases and meteorological variables between 2010 and 2015 were acquired from the Nanjing Center for Disease Control and Prevention, and China Meteorological Data Sharing Service System, respectively. A multivariate seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model was developed and validated by dividing HFMD infection data into two datasets: the data from 2010 to 2013 were used to construct a model and those from 2014 to 2015 were used to validate it. Moreover, we used weekly prediction for the data between 1 January 2014 and 31 December 2015 and leave-1-week-out prediction was used to validate the performance of model prediction. SARIMA (2,0,0)52 associated with the average temperature at lag of 1 week appeared to be the best model (R 2 = 0.936, BIC = 8.465), which also showed non-significant autocorrelations in the residuals of the model. In the validation of the constructed model, the predicted values matched the observed values reasonably well between 2014 and 2015. There was a high agreement rate between the predicted values and the observed values (sensitivity 80%, specificity 96.63%). This study suggests that the SARIMA model with average temperature could be used as an important tool for early detection and prediction of HFMD outbreaks in Nanjing, China.

  1. Prevalence of multiple enteroviruses associated with hand, foot, and mouth disease in Shijiazhuang City, Hebei province, China: outbreaks of coxsackieviruses a10 and b3.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huifang Tian

    Full Text Available Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD has been one of the most common infectious diseases in Shijiazhuang City, as is the situation in China overall. In the National HFMD surveillance system, the pathogen detection was focused on EV-A71 and CVA16, and therefore, information on the other EVs is very limited. In order to identify the circulating EV serotypes in the HFMD outbreaks in Shijiazhuang City during 2010-2012, 4045 patients presented with HFMD were recruited in the study, and clinical samples were investigated. Typing of EV serotypes was performed using the molecular typing methods, and phylogenetic analyses based on entire VP1 sequences of human enterovirus 71 (EV-A71, coxsackievirus A16 (CVA16, CVA10 and CVB3 was performed. The results revealed that EV-A71 and CVA16 were the 2 most important pathogens but the circulating trends of the 2 viruses showed a shift, the spread of EV-A71 became increasingly weak, whereas the spread of CVA16 became increasingly stronger. CVA10 and CVB3 were the third and fourth most prevalent pathogens, respectively. Co-infection of two viruses at the same time was not found in these samples. Based on entire VP1 region sequences, the phylogenetic analysis revealed that C4a subgenotype EV-A71, B1a and B1b subgenotype CVA16 continued to evolve. The CVA10 strains were assigned to 4 genotypes (A-D, whereas the CVB3 strains were assigned to 5 genotypes (A-E, with clear geographical and temporal-specific distributions. The Shijiazhuang CVA10 sequences belonged to 4 epidemic lineages within genotype C, whereas the Shijiazhuang CVB3 sequences belonged to 2 epidemic lineages within genotype E, which may have the same origins as the strains reported in other part of China. CVA10 and CVB3, 2 pathogens that were previously infrequently detected, were identified as pathogens causing the HFMD outbreaks. This study underscores the need for detailed laboratory-based surveillances of HFMD in mainland China.

  2. Household demographic determinants of Ebola epidemic risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adams, Ben

    2016-03-07

    A salient characteristic of Ebola, and some other infectious diseases such as Tuberculosis, is intense transmission among small groups of cohabitants and relatively limited indiscriminate transmission in the wider population. Here we consider a mathematical model for an Ebola epidemic in a population structured into households of equal size. We show that household size, a fundamental demographic unit, is a critical factor that determines the vulnerability of a community to epidemics, and the effort required to control them. Our analysis is based on the household reproduction number, but we also consider the basic reproduction number, intrinsic growth rate and final epidemic size. We show that, when other epidemiological parameters are kept the same, all of these quantifications of epidemic growth and size are increased by larger households and more intense within-household transmission. We go on to model epidemic control by case detection and isolation followed by household quarantine. We show that, if household quarantine is ineffective, the critical probability with which cases must be detected to halt an epidemic increases significantly with each increment in household size and may be a very challenging target for communities composed of large households. Effective quarantine may, however, mitigate the detrimental impact of large household sizes. We conclude that communities composed of large households are fundamentally more vulnerable to epidemics of infectious diseases primarily transmitted by close contact, and any assessment of control strategies for these epidemics should take into account the demographic structure of the population. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Bayesian inference in an extended SEIR model with nonparametric disease transmission rate: an application to the Ebola epidemic in Sierra Leone.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frasso, Gianluca; Lambert, Philippe

    2016-10-01

    SummaryThe 2014 Ebola outbreak in Sierra Leone is analyzed using a susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed (SEIR) epidemic compartmental model. The discrete time-stochastic model for the epidemic evolution is coupled to a set of ordinary differential equations describing the dynamics of the expected proportions of subjects in each epidemic state. The unknown parameters are estimated in a Bayesian framework by combining data on the number of new (laboratory confirmed) Ebola cases reported by the Ministry of Health and prior distributions for the transition rates elicited using information collected by the WHO during the follow-up of specific Ebola cases. The time-varying disease transmission rate is modeled in a flexible way using penalized B-splines. Our framework represents a valuable stochastic tool for the study of an epidemic dynamic even when only irregularly observed and possibly aggregated data are available. Simulations and the analysis of the 2014 Sierra Leone Ebola data highlight the merits of the proposed methodology. In particular, the flexible modeling of the disease transmission rate makes the estimation of the effective reproduction number robust to the misspecification of the initial epidemic states and to underreporting of the infectious cases. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  4. Spatial statistical analysis of basal stem root disease under natural field epidemic of oil palm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamu, Assis; Phin, Chong Khim; Seman, Idris Abu; Wan, Hoong Hak; Mun, Ho Chong

    2015-02-01

    Oil palm or scientifically known as Elaeis guineensis Jacq. is the most important commodity crop in Malaysia and has greatly contributed to the economy growth of the country. As far as disease is concerned in the industry, Basal Stem Rot (BSR) caused by Ganoderma boninence remains the most important disease. BSR disease is the most widely studied with information available for oil palm disease in Malaysia. However, there is still limited study on the spatial as well as temporal pattern or distribution of the disease especially under natural field epidemic condition in oil palm plantation. The objective of this study is to spatially identify the pattern of BSR disease under natural field epidemic using two geospatial analytical techniques, which are quadrat analysis for the first order properties of partial pattern analysis and nearest-neighbor analysis (NNA) for the second order properties of partial pattern analysis. Two study sites were selected with different age of tree. Both sites are located in Tawau, Sabah and managed by the same company. The results showed that at least one of the point pattern analysis used which is NNA (i.e. the second order properties of partial pattern analysis) has confirmed the disease is complete spatial randomness. This suggests the spread of the disease is not from tree to tree and the age of palm does not play a significance role in determining the spatial pattern of the disease. From the spatial pattern of the disease, it would help in the disease management program and for the industry in the future. The statistical modelling is expected to help in identifying the right model to estimate the yield loss of oil palm due to BSR disease in the future.

  5. Hand, foot and mouth disease: spatiotemporal transmission and climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li Xiao-Zhou

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The Hand-Foot-Mouth Disease (HFMD is the most common infectious disease in China, its total incidence being around 500,000 ~1,000,000 cases per year. The composite space-time disease variation is the result of underlining attribute mechanisms that could provide clues about the physiologic and demographic determinants of disease transmission and also guide the appropriate allocation of medical resources to control the disease. Methods and Findings HFMD cases were aggregated into 1456 counties and during a period of 11 months. Suspected climate attributes to HFMD were recorded monthly at 674 stations throughout the country and subsequently interpolated within 1456 × 11 cells across space-time (same as the number of HFMD cases using the Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME method while taking into consideration the relevant uncertainty sources. The dimensionalities of the two datasets together with the integrated dataset combining the two previous ones are very high when the topologies of the space-time relationships between cells are taken into account. Using a self-organizing map (SOM algorithm the dataset dimensionality was effectively reduced into 2 dimensions, while the spatiotemporal attribute structure was maintained. 16 types of spatiotemporal HFMD transmission were identified, and 3-4 high spatial incidence clusters of the HFMD types were found throughout China, which are basically within the scope of the monthly climate (precipitation types. Conclusions HFMD propagates in a composite space-time domain rather than showing a purely spatial and purely temporal variation. There is a clear relationship between HFMD occurrence and climate. HFMD cases are geographically clustered and closely linked to the monthly precipitation types of the region. The occurrence of the former depends on the later.

  6. Disinfection of foot-and-mouth disease and African swine fever viruses with citric acid and sodium hypochlorite on birch wood carriers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Transboundary animal disease viruses such as foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) and African swine fever virus (ASFV) are highly contagious and cause severe morbidity and mortality in livestock. Proper disinfection during an outbreak can help prevent virus spread and will shorten the time for contam...

  7. Update on epidemiology and control of Foot and Mouth Disease - A menace to international trade and global animal enterprise

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. M. Depa

    Full Text Available Foot and mouth disease (FMD is one of the most economically and socially devastating disease affecting animal agriculture throughout the world. This review describes economic impact of disease outbreaks, an update of recent findings in epidemiology of FMD both at International and national level and control of this disease. The etiological agent (FMD virus is examined in detail at genetic and molecular characterization level and in terms of antigenic diversity. [Vet World 2012; 5(11.000: 694-704

  8. Summer epidemics of apple scab : The relationship between measurements and their implications for the development of predictive models and threshold levels under different disease control regimes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Holb, I.J.; Heijne, B.; Jeger, M.J.

    2003-01-01

    A 2-year study on epidemic progress of apple scab was conducted at Randwijk, the Netherlands, in 1998 and 1999. The summer epidemic caused by conidia was studied instead of the well-described spring season epidemic originating from ascospores. The aim was to investigate relationships between disease

  9. How to analytically characterize the epidemic threshold within the coupled disease-behavior systems?. Comment on "Coupled disease-behavior dynamics on complex networks: A review" by Z. Wang et al.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xia, Cheng-Yi; Ding, Shuai; Sun, Shi-Wen; Wang, Li; Gao, Zhong-Ke; Wang, Juan

    2015-12-01

    As is well known, outbreak of epidemics may drive the human population to take some necessary measures to protect themselves from not being infected by infective ones, these precautions in turn will also keep from the further spreading of infectious diseases among the population. Thus, to fully comprehend the epidemic spreading behavior within real-world systems, the interplay between disease dynamics and human behavioral and social dynamics needs to be considered simultaneously, such that some effective containment-measures can be successfully developed [1-3].

  10. Epidemic spreading in time-varying community networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ren, Guangming; Wang, Xingyuan

    2014-06-01

    The spreading processes of many infectious diseases have comparable time scale as the network evolution. Here, we present a simple networks model with time-varying community structure, and investigate susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic spreading processes in this model. By both theoretic analysis and numerical simulations, we show that the efficiency of epidemic spreading in this model depends intensively on the mobility rate q of the individuals among communities. We also find that there exists a mobility rate threshold qc. The epidemic will survive when q > qc and die when q epidemic spreading in complex networks with community structure.

  11. Epidemic spreading on dual-structure networks with mobile agents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yao, Yiyang; Zhou, Yinzuo

    2017-02-01

    The rapid development of modern society continually transforms the social structure which leads to an increasingly distinct dual structure of higher population density in urban areas and lower density in rural areas. Such structure may induce distinctive spreading behavior of epidemics which does not happen in a single type structure. In this paper, we study the epidemic spreading of mobile agents on dual structure networks based on SIRS model. First, beyond the well known epidemic threshold for generic epidemic model that when the infection rate is below the threshold a pertinent infectious disease will die out, we find the other epidemic threshold which appears when the infection rate of a disease is relatively high. This feature of two thresholds for the SIRS model may lead to the elimination of infectious disease when social network has either high population density or low population density. Interestingly, however, we find that when a high density area is connected to a low density may cause persistent spreading of the infectious disease, even though the same disease will die out when it spreads in each single area. This phenomenon indicates the critical role of the connection between the two areas which could radically change the behavior of spreading dynamics. Our findings, therefore, provide new understanding of epidemiology pertinent to the characteristic modern social structure and have potential to develop controlling strategies accordingly.

  12. Prevalence of foot-and-mouth disease antibodies in dairy herds in the Netherlands four years after vaccination

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dekker, A.; Terpstra, C.

    1996-01-01

    A total of 298 serum samples were collected from Dutch cattle born in 1988 or before, and examined in the virus neutralisation test for antibodies against foot-and-mouth disease virus types A10Holland, O1BFS, and C1Detmold. All the cattle had been vaccinated at least twice during the annual

  13. A simple model for behaviour change in epidemics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brauer Fred

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background People change their behaviour during an epidemic. Infectious members of a population may reduce the number of contacts they make with other people because of the physical effects of their illness and possibly because of public health announcements asking them to do so in order to decrease the number of new infections, while susceptible members of the population may reduce the number of contacts they make in order to try to avoid becoming infected. Methods We consider a simple epidemic model in which susceptible and infectious members respond to a disease outbreak by reducing contacts by different fractions and analyze the effect of such contact reductions on the size of the epidemic. We assume constant fractional reductions, without attempting to consider the way in which susceptible members might respond to information about the epidemic. Results We are able to derive upper and lower bounds for the final size of an epidemic, both for simple and staged progression models. Conclusions The responses of uninfected and infected individuals in a disease outbreak are different, and this difference affects estimates of epidemic size.

  14. Drought and Epidemic Typhus, Central Mexico, 1655–1918

    Science.gov (United States)

    Acuna-Soto, Rudofo; Stahle, David W.

    2014-01-01

    Epidemic typhus is an infectious disease caused by the bacterium Rickettsia prowazekii and transmitted by body lice (Pediculus humanus corporis). This disease occurs where conditions are crowded and unsanitary. This disease accompanied war, famine, and poverty for centuries. Historical and proxy climate data indicate that drought was a major factor in the development of typhus epidemics in Mexico during 1655–1918. Evidence was found for 22 large typhus epidemics in central Mexico, and tree-ring chronologies were used to reconstruct moisture levels over central Mexico for the past 500 years. Below-average tree growth, reconstructed drought, and low crop yields occurred during 19 of these 22 typhus epidemics. Historical documents describe how drought created large numbers of environmental refugees that fled the famine-stricken countryside for food relief in towns. These refugees often ended up in improvised shelters in which crowding encouraged conditions necessary for spread of typhus. PMID:24564928

  15. Transmission of foot-and-mouth disease virus during the incubation period in pigs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carolina Stenfeldt

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Understanding the quantitative characteristics of a pathogen’s capability to transmit during distinct phases of infection is important to enable accurate predictions of the spread and impact of a disease outbreak. In the current investigation, the potential for transmission of foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV during the incubation (preclinical phase of infection was investigated in seven groups of pigs that were sequentially exposed to a group of donor pigs that were infected by simulated-natural inoculation. Contact-exposed pigs were co-mingled with infected donors through successive eight-hour time slots spanning from 8 to 64 hours post inoculation (hpi of the donor pigs. The transition from latent to infectious periods in the donor pigs was clearly defined by successful transmission of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD to all contact pigs that were exposed to the donors from 24 hpi and later. This onset of infectiousness occurred concurrent with detection of viremia, but approximately 24 hours prior to the first appearance of clinical signs of FMD in the donors.Thus, the latent period of infection ended approximately 24 hours earlier than the end of the incubation period. There were significant differences between contact-exposed groups in the time elapsed from virus exposure to the first detection of FMDV shedding, viremia and clinical lesions. Specifically, the onset and progression of clinical FMD was more rapid in pigs that had been exposed to the donor pigs during more advanced phases of disease, suggesting that these animals had received a higher effective challenge dose. These results demonstrate transmission and dissemination of FMD within groups of pigs during the incubation period of infection. Furthermore, the findings suggest that under current conditions, shedding of FMDV in oropharyngeal fluids is a more precise proxy for FMDV infectiousness than clinical signs of infection. These findings may impact modeling of the propagation of

  16. SAT2 Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus Structurally Modified for Increased Thermostability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott, Katherine A; Kotecha, Abhay; Seago, Julian; Ren, Jingshan; Fry, Elizabeth E; Stuart, David I; Charleston, Bryan; Maree, Francois F

    2017-05-15

    Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV), particularly strains of the O and SAT serotypes, is notoriously unstable. Consequently, vaccines derived from heat-labile SAT viruses have been linked to the induction of immunity with a poor duration and hence require more frequent vaccinations to ensure protection. In silico calculations predicted residue substitutions that would increase interactions at the interpentamer interface, supporting increased stability. We assessed the stability of the 18 recombinant mutant viruses in regard to their growth kinetics, antigenicity, plaque morphology, genetic stability, and temperature, ionic, and pH stability by using Thermofluor and inactivation assays in order to evaluate potential SAT2 vaccine candidates with improved stability. The most stable mutant for temperature and pH stability was the S2093Y single mutant, while other promising mutants were the E3198A, L2094V, and S2093H single mutants and the F2062Y-H2087M-H3143V triple mutant. Although the S2093Y mutant had the greatest stability, it exhibited smaller plaques, a reduced growth rate, a change in monoclonal antibody footprint, and poor genetic stability properties compared to those of the wild-type virus. However, these factors affecting production can be overcome. The addition of 1 M NaCl was found to further increase the stability of the SAT2 panel of viruses. The S2093Y and S2093H mutants were selected for future use in stabilizing SAT2 vaccines. IMPORTANCE Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) causes a highly contagious acute vesicular disease in cloven-hoofed livestock and wildlife. The control of the disease by vaccination is essential, especially at livestock-wildlife interfaces. The instability of some serotypes, such as SAT2, affects the quality of vaccines and therefore the duration of immunity. We have shown that we can improve the stability of SAT2 viruses by mutating residues at the capsid interface through predictive modeling. This is an important finding for

  17. Enhanced sensitivity in detection of antiviral antibody responses using biotinylation of foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) capsids

    Science.gov (United States)

    Analysis of the immune response to infection of livestock by foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) is most often reported as the serum antibody response to the virus. While measurement of neutralizing antibody has been sensitive and specific, measurements of the quality of the antibody response are le...

  18. Cell culture adaptation mutations in foot-and-mouth disease virus serotype A capsid proteins: implications for receptor interactions

    Science.gov (United States)

    In this study we describe the adaptive changes fixed on the capsid of several foot-and-mouth disease virus serotype A strains during propagation in cell monolayers. Viruses passaged extensively in three cell lines (BHK-21, LFBK and IB-RS-2), consistently gained several positively charged amino acids...

  19. Novel chimeric foot-and-mouth disease virus-like particles harboring serotype O VP1 protect guinea pigs against challenge.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Haitao; Li, Zhiyong; Xie, Yinli; Qin, Xiaodong; Qi, Xingcai; Sun, Peng; Bai, Xingwen; Ma, Youji; Zhang, Zhidong

    2016-02-01

    Foot-and-mouth disease is a highly contagious, acute viral disease of cloven-hoofed animal species causing severe economic losses worldwide. Among the seven serotypes of foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV), serotype O is predominant, but its viral capsid is more acid sensitive than other serotypes, making it more difficult to produce empty serotype O VLPs in the low pH insect hemolymph. Therefore, a novel chimeric virus-like particle (VLP)-based candidate vaccine for serotype O FMDV was developed and characterized in the present study. The chimeric VLPs were composed of antigenic VP1 from serotype O and segments of viral capsid proteins from serotype Asia1. These VLPs elicited significantly higher FMDV-specific antibody levels in immunized mice than did the inactivated vaccine. Furthermore, the chimeric VLPs protected guinea pigs from FMDV challenge with an efficacy similar to that of the inactivated vaccine. These results suggest that chimeric VLPs have the potential for use in vaccines against serotype O FMDV infection. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. Implementation of an HACCP model in foot and mouth disease control programmes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Gelderen, C J; Durrieu, M; Schudel, A A

    2015-12-01

    The organisation and structure of the official Veterinary Services (OVS) are designed to meet a specific aim--the health certification of animal health, welfare and food safety in the production and processing stage. Disease prevention and control calls for programmes and projects that, depending on the characteristics of each disease, may involve any branch of the OVS, from the laboratory to field activities. For the purpose of this work, the model used is that of a country that is 'free from foot and mouth disease with vaccination' in accordance with the conditions stipulated in Chapter 8.8. of the World Organisation for Animal Health Terrestrial Animal Health Code. These conditions state that, to maintain this health status, a programme of monitoring and continuous control of the relevant variables must be implemented. This is achieved by applying good practice and identifying the critical control points in all processes, using a checklist that simplifies the task. The system that is developed can also serve as a guide for internal or external programme audits.

  1. Proper Timing of Foot-and-Mouth Disease Vaccination of Piglets with Maternally Derived Antibodies Will Maximize Expected Protection Levels

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dekker, A.; Chénard, G.; Stockhofe, N.; Eble, P.L.

    2016-01-01

    We investigated to what extent maternally derived antibodies interfere with foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) vaccination in order to determine the factors that influence the correct vaccination for piglets. Groups of piglets with maternally derived antibodies were vaccinated at different time points

  2. Impacts of clustering on interacting epidemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Bing; Cao, Lang; Suzuki, Hideyuki; Aihara, Kazuyuki

    2012-07-07

    Since community structures in real networks play a major role for the epidemic spread, we therefore explore two interacting diseases spreading in networks with community structures. As a network model with community structures, we propose a random clique network model composed of different orders of cliques. We further assume that each disease spreads only through one type of cliques; this assumption corresponds to the issue that two diseases spread inside communities and outside them. Considering the relationship between the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model and the bond percolation theory, we apply this theory to clique random networks under the assumption that the occupation probability is clique-type dependent, which is consistent with the observation that infection rates inside a community and outside it are different, and obtain a number of statistical properties for this model. Two interacting diseases that compete the same hosts are also investigated, which leads to a natural generalization of analyzing an arbitrary number of infectious diseases. For two-disease dynamics, the clustering effect is hypersensitive to the cohesiveness and concentration of cliques; this illustrates the impacts of clustering and the composition of subgraphs in networks on epidemic behavior. The analysis of coexistence/bistability regions provides significant insight into the relationship between the network structure and the potential epidemic prevalence. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Burning mouth syndrome: a discussion of a complex pathology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zur, Eyal

    2012-01-01

    Burning mouth syndrome is a complex pathology for which there is very little information about the etiology and pathogenesis. This lack of knowledge leaves patients with suboptimal treatments. This article discusses the existing scientific evidence about this disease. Since topical oral use of clonazepam have been shown to be effective and safe to treat some patients suffering with burning mouth syndrome, formulations including clonazepam are included with this article. Compounding topical preparations of clonazepam offers opportunities for compounding pharmacists to be more involved in improving the quality of life of burning mouth syndrome patients.

  4. The Obesity Epidemic

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2011-07-18

    Learn about obesity and the community initiatives taking place to prevent and reduce this epidemic.  Created: 7/18/2011 by National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion, Division of Nutrition, Physical Activity and Obesity.   Date Released: 7/18/2011.

  5. Challenges and prospects for the control of foot-and-mouth disease: an African perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maree FF

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Francois F Maree,1,2 Christopher J Kasanga,3, Katherine A Scott,1 Pamela A Opperman,1,2 Melanie Chitray,1,2, Abraham K Sangula,4 Raphael Sallu,3 Yona Sinkala,5 Philemon N Wambura,3 Donald P King,6 David J Paton,6 Mark M Rweyemamu,3 1Transboundary Animal Diseases Programme, Onderstepoort Veterinary Institute, Agricultural Research Council, Onderstepoort, Pretoria, South Africa; 2Department of Microbiology and Plant Pathology, Faculty of Agricultural and Natural Sciences, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa; 3Southern African Centre for Infectious Diseases Surveillance, Sokoine University of Agriculture, Morogoro, Tanzania; 4Foot-and-Mouth Disease Laboratory, Embakasi, Nairobi, Kenya; 5Department of Disease Control, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of Zambia, Lusaka, Zambia; 6The Pirbright Institute, Pirbright, Surrey, UK Abstract: The epidemiology of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD in Africa is unique in the sense that six of the seven serotypes of FMD viruses (Southern African Territories [SAT] 1, SAT2, SAT3, A, O, and C, with the exception of Asia-1, have occurred in the last decade. Due to underreporting of FMD, the current strains circulating throughout sub-Saharan Africa are in many cases unknown. For SAT1, SAT2, and serotype A viruses, the genetic diversity is reflected in antigenic variation, and indications are that vaccine strains may be needed for each topotype. This has serious implications for control using vaccines and for choice of strains to include in regional antigen banks. The epidemiology is further complicated by the fact that SAT1, SAT2, and SAT3 viruses are maintained and spread by wildlife, persistently infecting African buffalo in particular. Although the precise mechanism of transmission of FMD from buffalo to cattle is not well understood, it is facilitated by direct contact between these two species. Once cattle are infected they may maintain SAT infections without the further involvement of buffalo. No

  6. Epidemiological profile of elderly women with burning mouth symptoms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Vieira de Lima Saintrain

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Objective: To determine the epidemiological profile of elderly women with burning mouth symptoms. Methods: A cross sectional, quantitative, exploratory and descriptive study conducted in two phases: a determining the prevalence of burning mouth symptoms among 263 elderly women aged between 60 and 83 years who attended six public municipal community centers in Fortaleza-CE, Brazil, b defining the epidemiological profile of respondents with burning mouth symptoms, through the variables: self-reported diseases, salivary flow, use of medications, dental prosthesis and oral hygiene habits. Data were organized by the Statistical Package for Social Sciences - SPSS version 15. Results: The prevalence of burning mouth symptoms in the group was 19% (n=50. Of these, 41 (82.0% reported the manifestation of the symptoms as a scalding sensation. Regarding the occurrence, the most referred sites were: tongue (48%; n=24 and gums (22%; n=11. Among elderly women, 24 (48.0% had daily symptoms. Regarding self-reported diseases and habits: 80.0% cited cardiovascular diseases, 74.0% (n=37 musculoskeletal illness and 62.0% (n=31 neurological disorders, besides 56.0% (n=28 present reduction of salivary flow; 70.0% (n=35 took medication, 66.0% (n=33 were users of dental prosthesis and 18.0% (n=9 did not brush their teeth. Conclusions: The prevalence of burning mouth symptoms in this group was 19%; scalding sensation was the main manifestation of the symptom and the tongue was the site of major symptomatology. The epidemiological profile of symptomatic elderly was distinguished by self-reported diseases and habits such as cardiovascular, musculoskeletal and neurological disorders, in addition to reduced salivary flow, as well as the use of medications and dental prosthesis.

  7. Epidemics in interconnected small-world networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Meng; Li, Daqing; Qin, Pengju; Liu, Chaoran; Wang, Huijuan; Wang, Feilong

    2015-01-01

    Networks can be used to describe the interconnections among individuals, which play an important role in the spread of disease. Although the small-world effect has been found to have a significant impact on epidemics in single networks, the small-world effect on epidemics in interconnected networks has rarely been considered. Here, we study the susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model of epidemic spreading in a system comprising two interconnected small-world networks. We find that the epidemic threshold in such networks decreases when the rewiring probability of the component small-world networks increases. When the infection rate is low, the rewiring probability affects the global steady-state infection density, whereas when the infection rate is high, the infection density is insensitive to the rewiring probability. Moreover, epidemics in interconnected small-world networks are found to spread at different velocities that depend on the rewiring probability.

  8. Epidemics in interconnected small-world networks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meng Liu

    Full Text Available Networks can be used to describe the interconnections among individuals, which play an important role in the spread of disease. Although the small-world effect has been found to have a significant impact on epidemics in single networks, the small-world effect on epidemics in interconnected networks has rarely been considered. Here, we study the susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS model of epidemic spreading in a system comprising two interconnected small-world networks. We find that the epidemic threshold in such networks decreases when the rewiring probability of the component small-world networks increases. When the infection rate is low, the rewiring probability affects the global steady-state infection density, whereas when the infection rate is high, the infection density is insensitive to the rewiring probability. Moreover, epidemics in interconnected small-world networks are found to spread at different velocities that depend on the rewiring probability.

  9. The hidden epidemic: confronting sexually transmitted diseases

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Eng, Thomas R; Butler, William T

    .... In addition, STDs increase the risk of HIV transmission. The Hidden Epidemic examines the scope of sexually transmitted infections in the United States and provides a critical assessment of the nation's response to this public health crisis...

  10. Epidemic spread in bipartite network by considering risk awareness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, She; Sun, Mei; Ampimah, Benjamin Chris; Han, Dun

    2018-02-01

    Human awareness plays an important role in the spread of infectious diseases and the control of propagation patterns. Exploring the interplay between human awareness and epidemic spreading is a topic that has been receiving increasing attention. Considering the fact, some well-known diseases only spread between different species we propose a theoretical analysis of the Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) epidemic spread from the perspective of bipartite network and risk aversion. Using mean field theory, the epidemic threshold is calculated theoretically. Simulation results are consistent with the proposed analytic model. The results show that, the final infection density is negative linear with the value of individuals' risk awareness. Therefore, the epidemic spread could be effectively suppressed by improving individuals' risk awareness.

  11. Dynamics of cholera epidemics with impulsive vaccination and disinfection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sisodiya, Omprakash Singh; Misra, O P; Dhar, Joydip

    2018-04-01

    Waterborne diseases have a tremendous influence on human life. The contaminated drinking water causes water-borne disease like cholera. Pulse vaccination is an important and effective strategy for the elimination of infectious diseases. A waterborne disease like cholera can also be controlled by using impulse technique. In this paper, we have proposed a delayed SEIRB epidemic model with impulsive vaccination and disinfection. We have studied the pulse vaccination strategy and sanitation to control the cholera disease. The existence and stability of the disease-free and endemic periodic solution are investigated both analytically and numerically. It is shown that there exists an infection-free periodic solution, using the impulsive dynamical system defined by the stroboscopic map. It is observed that the infection-free periodic solution is globally attractive when the impulse period is less than some critical value. From the analysis of the model, we have obtained a sufficient condition for the permanence of the epidemic with pulse vaccination. The main highlight of this paper is to introduce impulse technique along with latent period into the SEIRB epidemic model to investigate the role of pulse vaccination and disinfection on the dynamics of the cholera epidemics. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. Quantification of foot and mouth disease virus excretion and transmission within groups of lambs with and without vaccination

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Orsel, K.; Dekker, A.; Bouma, A.; Stegeman, J.A.; Jong, de M.C.M.

    2007-01-01

    Sheep are well known to be susceptible for foot and mouth disease virus (FMDV), but it is unknown whether the infection can spread and persist in a sheep population. We therefore quantified virus transmission by performing experiments with FMD virus strain O/NET/2001 in groups of lambs. We used six

  13. Inferring epidemic network topology from surveillance data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiang Wan

    Full Text Available The transmission of infectious diseases can be affected by many or even hidden factors, making it difficult to accurately predict when and where outbreaks may emerge. One approach at the moment is to develop and deploy surveillance systems in an effort to detect outbreaks as timely as possible. This enables policy makers to modify and implement strategies for the control of the transmission. The accumulated surveillance data including temporal, spatial, clinical, and demographic information, can provide valuable information with which to infer the underlying epidemic networks. Such networks can be quite informative and insightful as they characterize how infectious diseases transmit from one location to another. The aim of this work is to develop a computational model that allows inferences to be made regarding epidemic network topology in heterogeneous populations. We apply our model on the surveillance data from the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in Hong Kong. The inferred epidemic network displays significant effect on the propagation of infectious diseases.

  14. Are we prepared for emerging and re-emerging diseases? Experience and lessons from epidemics that occurred in Tanzania during the last five decades.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karimuribo, Esron D; Mboera, Leonard E G; Mbugi, Erasto; Simba, Azma; Kivaria, Fredrick M; Mmbuji, Peter; Rweyemamu, Mark M

    2011-12-01

    This paper reviews preparedness for containing and controlling emerging and re-emerging diseases drawing lessons from disease events that occurred in animal and human populations in the last five decades (1961-2011). A comprehensive analysis based on retrieval and analysis of grey and published literature as well as reported cases was carried out to document type and trend of occurrence of emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases in different parts of Tanzania. Overall, the majority of diseases reported in the country were viral in nature followed by bacterial diseases. The trend for the occurrence shows a number of new emerging diseases as well as re-occurrence of old diseases in both animal (domestic and wild) and human populations. In humans, the major disease epidemics reported in the last five decades include cholera, influenza A H1N1, plague and rubella. In animals, the major epidemic diseases reported were Contagious Bovine Pleuropneumonia, Contagious Caprine Pleuropneumonia, Peste des petits ruminants and Giraffe Ear and Skin Diseases. Some epidemics have been reported in both human and animal populations including Rift Valley fever and anthrax. The emergence of the 'fit-for purpose' approaches and technologies such as the discipline of One Health, use of participatory epidemiology and disease surveillance and mobile technologies offers opportunity for optimal use of limited resources to improve early detection, diagnosis and response to disease events and consequently reduced impact of such diseases in animal and human populations.

  15. [Hippocrates. Aphorisms and Epidemics III. Two clinical texts].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frøland, Anders

    2015-01-01

    The two Hippocratic texts, Aphorisms and Epidemics III, have not been translated into Danish previously. The Aphorisms are 412 short, pithy statements, mostly on the prognosis in relation to certain symptoms in the course of the diseases, very often febrile. The Aphorisms begin with the famous words: "Life is short, the Art long, opportunity fleeting, experiment treacherous, judgment difficult." (Transl. W H S Jones [22]). Epidemics III consists of 28 case histories, again mostly of febrile patients, but also of observations on the connection of the seasons with general morbidity and mortality. The author describes an epidemic, which in some respects resembles Thucydides' report on the plague in Athens in 430 BC. It is suggested, that observations as have been recorded in the seven Hippocratic texts on epidemic diseases are the material on which prognostic statements as those collected in the Aphorisms are founded.

  16. Ebola epidemic--Liberia, March-October 2014.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nyenswah, Tolbert; Fahnbulleh, Miatta; Massaquoi, Moses; Nagbe, Thomas; Bawo, Luke; Falla, James Dorbor; Kohar, Henry; Gasasira, Alex; Nabeth, Pierre; Yett, Sheldon; Gergonne, Bernadette; Casey, Sean; Espinosa, Benjamin; McCoy, Andrea; Feldman, Heinz; Hensley, Lisa; Baily, Mark; Fields, Barry; Lo, Terrence; Lindblade, Kim; Mott, Josh; Boulanger, Lucy; Christie, Athalia; Wang, Susan; Montgomery, Joel; Mahoney, Frank

    2014-11-21

    On March 21, 2014, the Guinea Ministry of Health reported the outbreak of an illness characterized by fever, severe diarrhea, vomiting and a high fatality rate (59%), leading to the first known epidemic of Ebola virus disease (Ebola) in West Africa and the largest and longest Ebola epidemic in history. As of November 2, Liberia had reported the largest number of cases (6,525) and deaths (2,697) among the three affected countries of West Africa with ongoing transmission (Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone). The response strategy in Liberia has included management of the epidemic through an incident management system (IMS) in which the activities of all partners are coordinated. Within the IMS, key strategies for epidemic control include surveillance, case investigation, laboratory confirmation, contact tracing, safe transportation of persons with suspected Ebola, isolation, infection control within the health care system, community engagement, and safe burial. This report provides a brief overview of the progression of the epidemic in Liberia and summarizes the interventions implemented.

  17. Abrupt transition to heightened poliomyelitis epidemicity in England and Wales, 1947-1957, associated with a pronounced increase in the geographical rate of disease propagation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smallman-Raynor, M R; Cliff, A D

    2014-03-01

    The abrupt transition to heightened poliomyelitis epidemicity in England and Wales, 1947-1957, was associated with a profound change in the spatial dynamics of the disease. Drawing on the complete record of poliomyelitis notifications in England and Wales, we use a robust method of spatial epidemiological analysis (swash-backwash model) to evaluate the geographical rate of disease propagation in successive poliomyelitis seasons, 1940-1964. Comparisons with earlier and later time periods show that the period of heightened poliomyelitis epidemicity corresponded with a sudden and pronounced increase in the spatial rate of disease propagation. This change was observed for both urban and rural areas and points to an abrupt enhancement in the propensity for the geographical spread of polioviruses. Competing theories of the epidemic emergence of poliomyelitis in England and Wales should be assessed in the light of this evidence.

  18. Epidemic spreading on contact networks with adaptive weights.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Guanghu; Chen, Guanrong; Xu, Xin-Jian; Fu, Xinchu

    2013-01-21

    The heterogeneous patterns of interactions within a population are often described by contact networks, but the variety and adaptivity of contact strengths are usually ignored. This paper proposes a modified epidemic SIS model with a birth-death process and nonlinear infectivity on an adaptive and weighted contact network. The links' weights, named as 'adaptive weights', which indicate the intimacy or familiarity between two connected individuals, will reduce as the disease develops. Through mathematical and numerical analyses, conditions are established for population extermination, disease extinction and infection persistence. Particularly, it is found that the fixed weights setting can trigger the epidemic incidence, and that the adaptivity of weights cannot change the epidemic threshold but it can accelerate the disease decay and lower the endemic level. Finally, some corresponding control measures are suggested. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Vaccination intervention on epidemic dynamics in networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Xiao-Long; Xu, Xin-Jian; Fu, Xinchu; Zhou, Tao

    2013-02-01

    Vaccination is an important measure available for preventing or reducing the spread of infectious diseases. In this paper, an epidemic model including susceptible, infected, and imperfectly vaccinated compartments is studied on Watts-Strogatz small-world, Barabási-Albert scale-free, and random scale-free networks. The epidemic threshold and prevalence are analyzed. For small-world networks, the effective vaccination intervention is suggested and its influence on the threshold and prevalence is analyzed. For scale-free networks, the threshold is found to be strongly dependent both on the effective vaccination rate and on the connectivity distribution. Moreover, so long as vaccination is effective, it can linearly decrease the epidemic prevalence in small-world networks, whereas for scale-free networks it acts exponentially. These results can help in adopting pragmatic treatment upon diseases in structured populations.

  20. The impact of movements and animal density on continental scale cattle disease outbreaks in the United States.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael G Buhnerkempe

    Full Text Available Globalization has increased the potential for the introduction and spread of novel pathogens over large spatial scales necessitating continental-scale disease models to guide emergency preparedness. Livestock disease spread models, such as those for the 2001 foot-and-mouth disease (FMD epidemic in the United Kingdom, represent some of the best case studies of large-scale disease spread. However, generalization of these models to explore disease outcomes in other systems, such as the United States's cattle industry, has been hampered by differences in system size and complexity and the absence of suitable livestock movement data. Here, a unique database of US cattle shipments allows estimation of synthetic movement networks that inform a near-continental scale disease model of a potential FMD-like (i.e., rapidly spreading epidemic in US cattle. The largest epidemics may affect over one-third of the US and 120,000 cattle premises, but cattle movement restrictions from infected counties, as opposed to national movement moratoriums, are found to effectively contain outbreaks. Slow detection or weak compliance may necessitate more severe state-level bans for similar control. Such results highlight the role of large-scale disease models in emergency preparedness, particularly for systems lacking comprehensive movement and outbreak data, and the need to rapidly implement multi-scale contingency plans during a potential US outbreak.

  1. Virological investigation of hand, foot, and mouth disease in a tertiary care center in South India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pavithra M Vijayaraghavan

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Context: Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD remains a common problem in India, yet its etiology is largely unknown as diagnosis is based on clinical characteristics. There are very few laboratory-based molecular studies on HFMD outbreaks. Aim: The aim of this study was to characterize HFMD-related isolates by molecular techniques. Settings and Design: Between 2005 and 2008, during two documented HFMD outbreaks, 30 suspected HFMD cases presented at the Outpatient Unit of the Department of Dermatology, Christian Medical College (CMC, Vellore. Seventy-eight clinical specimens (swabs from throat, mouth, rectum, anus, buttocks, tongue, forearm, sole, and foot were received from these patients at the Department of Clinical Virology, CMC, for routine diagnosis of hand, foot, and mouth disease. Materials and Methods: Samples from these patients were cultured in Vero and rhabdomyosarcoma (RD cell lines. Isolates producing enterovirus-like cytopathogenic effect (CPE in cell culture were identified by a nested reverse transcription-based polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR and sequenced. The nucleotide sequences were analyzed using the BioEdit sequence program. Homology searches were performed using the Basic Local Alignment Search Tool (BLAST algorithm. Statistical Analysis used: The statistical analysis was performed using Epi Info version 6.04b and Microsoft Excel 2002 (Microsoft Office XP. Results: Of the 30 suspected HFMD cases, only 17 (57% were laboratory confirmed and Coxsackievirus A16 (CVA16 was identified as the etiological agent in all these cases. Conclusions: Coxsackievirus A16 (CVA16 was identified as the virus that caused the HFMD outbreaks in Vellore between 2005 and 2008. Early confirmation of HFMD helps to initiate control measures to interrupt virus transmission. In the laboratory, classical diagnostic methods, culture and serological tests are being replaced by molecular techniques. Routine surveillance systems will help understand the

  2. Intercontinental spread of a genetically distinctive complex of clones of Neisseria meningitidis causing epidemic disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caugant, D A; Frøholm, L O; Bøvre, K; Holten, E; Frasch, C E; Mocca, L F; Zollinger, W D; Selander, R K

    1986-07-01

    Strains of Neisseria meningitidis responsible for an epidemic of meningococcal disease occurring in Norway since the mid-1970s and for recent increases in the incidence of disease in several other parts of Europe have been identified by multilocus enzyme electrophoresis as members of a distinctive group of 22 closely related clones (the ET-5 complex). Clones of this complex have also colonized South Africa, Chile, Cuba, and Florida, where they have been identified as the causative agents of recent outbreaks of meningococcal disease. There is strong circumstantial evidence that outbreaks of disease occurring in Miami in 1981 and 1982 were caused in large part by bacteria that reached Florida via human immigrants from Cuba.

  3. Epidemic cholera spreads like wildfire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roy, Manojit; Zinck, Richard D.; Bouma, Menno J.; Pascual, Mercedes

    2014-01-01

    Cholera is on the rise globally, especially epidemic cholera which is characterized by intermittent and unpredictable outbreaks that punctuate periods of regional disease fade-out. These epidemic dynamics remain however poorly understood. Here we examine records for epidemic cholera over both contemporary and historical timelines, from Africa (1990-2006) and former British India (1882-1939). We find that the frequency distribution of outbreak size is fat-tailed, scaling approximately as a power-law. This pattern which shows strong parallels with wildfires is incompatible with existing cholera models developed for endemic regions, as it implies a fundamental role for stochastic transmission and local depletion of susceptible hosts. Application of a recently developed forest-fire model indicates that epidemic cholera dynamics are located above a critical phase transition and propagate in similar ways to aggressive wildfires. These findings have implications for the effectiveness of control measures and the mechanisms that ultimately limit the size of outbreaks.

  4. Epidemic spreading in time-varying community networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ren, Guangming, E-mail: wangxy@dlut.edu.cn, E-mail: ren-guang-ming@163.com [School of Electronic and Information, Guangdong Polytechnic Normal University, Guangzhou 510665 (China); Faculty of Electronic Information and Electrical Engineering, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116024 (China); Wang, Xingyuan, E-mail: wangxy@dlut.edu.cn, E-mail: ren-guang-ming@163.com [Faculty of Electronic Information and Electrical Engineering, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116024 (China)

    2014-06-15

    The spreading processes of many infectious diseases have comparable time scale as the network evolution. Here, we present a simple networks model with time-varying community structure, and investigate susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic spreading processes in this model. By both theoretic analysis and numerical simulations, we show that the efficiency of epidemic spreading in this model depends intensively on the mobility rate q of the individuals among communities. We also find that there exists a mobility rate threshold q{sub c}. The epidemic will survive when q > q{sub c} and die when q < q{sub c}. These results can help understanding the impacts of human travel on the epidemic spreading in complex networks with community structure.

  5. Epidemic spreading in time-varying community networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ren, Guangming; Wang, Xingyuan

    2014-01-01

    The spreading processes of many infectious diseases have comparable time scale as the network evolution. Here, we present a simple networks model with time-varying community structure, and investigate susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic spreading processes in this model. By both theoretic analysis and numerical simulations, we show that the efficiency of epidemic spreading in this model depends intensively on the mobility rate q of the individuals among communities. We also find that there exists a mobility rate threshold q c . The epidemic will survive when q > q c and die when q  c . These results can help understanding the impacts of human travel on the epidemic spreading in complex networks with community structure

  6. Foot-and-mouth disease virus typing from foot-and-mouth outbreaks in the central provinces of Viet Nam

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nguyen Luong Hien

    2000-01-01

    A total of 167 tissue samples were collected from Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) infected animals from 57 FMD outbreaks to detect the sero-type of the FMD virus by the ELISA technique. The ELISA kit has been prepared and standardised by the World Reference Laboratory (WRL), UK and supplied under a Research Contract as part of an FAO/IAEA Co-ordinated Research Project. Eight tissue samples from cattle and one tissue sample from pig were sent to WRL for further study on the sero-type and to characterize the FMD viruses present in Viet Nam. The study was carried out from March 1996 to May 1998 in the central region of Viet Nam and the FMD type O virus was detected in these outbreaks only. The FMD type O virus from cattle and the FMD type O virus from pig are two distinct FMD type O viruses in Viet Nam. (author)

  7. Comparing effectiveness of regional and circular intervention zones in case of a foot-and-mouth disease outbreak

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christiansen, Lasse Engbo; Dickey, Bradley F; Carpenter, Tim E

    In case of a foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) or other exotic disease outbreak, surveillance zones and infected areas are conventionally created as circles with their centroids at the known infected premises. Given the availability of geographic information systems (GIS), it is no longer difficult...... model originally applied to a 3-county area in California and the available information about the state’s livestock demographics to compare these two control strategies. The comparisons included the simulated duration of outbreaks, number of herds and animals affected, and manpower issues...

  8. Evolving perception on the benefits of vaccination as a foot and mouth disease control policy: contributions of South America.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bergmann, Ingrid E; Malirat, Viviana; Falczuk, Abraham J

    2005-12-01

    Within the past decade, changes in perceptions on the benefits of vaccination as an appropriate tool to achieve complete foot and mouth disease eradication have become evident. The former negative view was derived from misconceptions, resulting mainly from the belief that vaccines are not entirely effective and that vaccination masks asymptomatic viral circulation. The advent in the 1990s of vaccination policies implemented within a strategic eradication plan in South America, and during recurrence of the disease in disease-free regions contributed towards generating more reliable and visible outcomes of vaccination programs, paving the way towards a new perception. Particularly relevant was the development and application of novel serodiagnostic approaches to assess silent viral circulation, irrespective of vaccination. The use in South America of vaccination allied to serosurveys to accompany viral clarification during eradication campaigns and after emergencies clearly established the importance of this control tool to stop the spread of viral infection. This alliance gave input to break many myths associated with the use of vaccines, including the belief that immunized carrier animals pose an epidemiologic risk. This experience launched new concepts that supported the internationally recognized status of foot and mouth disease-free regions with vaccination and the 'vaccination to live' policy as an alternative to 'stamping out'.

  9. Recovery of viral RNA and infectious foot-and-mouth disease virus from positive lateral-flow devices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fowler, Veronica L; Bankowski, Bartlomiej M; Armson, Bryony; Di Nardo, Antonello; Valdazo-Gonzalez, Begoña; Reid, Scott M; Barnett, Paul V; Wadsworth, Jemma; Ferris, Nigel P; Mioulet, Valérie; King, Donald P

    2014-01-01

    Foot-and-mouth disease Virus (FMDV) is an economically important, highly contagious picornavirus that affects both wild and domesticated cloven hooved animals. In developing countries, the effective laboratory diagnosis of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is often hindered by inadequate sample preservation due to difficulties in the transportation and storage of clinical material. These factors can compromise the ability to detect and characterise FMD virus in countries where the disease is endemic. Furthermore, the high cost of sending infectious virus material and the biosecurity risk it presents emphasises the need for a thermo-stable, non-infectious mode of transporting diagnostic samples. This paper investigates the potential of using FMDV lateral-flow devices (LFDs) for dry transportation of clinical samples for subsequent nucleic acid amplification, sequencing and recovery of infectious virus by electroporation. FMDV positive samples (epithelial suspensions and cell culture isolates) representing four FMDV serotypes were applied to antigen LFDs: after which it was possible to recover viral RNA that could be detected using real-time RT-PCR. Using this nucleic acid, it was also possible to recover VP1 sequences and also successfully utilise protocols for amplification of complete FMD virus genomes. It was not possible to recover infectious FMDV directly from the LFDs, however following electroporation into BHK-21 cells and subsequent cell passage, infectious virus could be recovered. Therefore, these results support the use of the antigen LFD for the dry, non-hazardous transportation of samples from FMD endemic countries to international reference laboratories.

  10. Prevention of foot-and-mouth disease in cattle using a prime-boot-vaccination strategy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gullberg, Maria; Lohse, Louise; Bøtner, Anette

    Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is one of the most economically important infectious diseases of production animals globally. Vaccination can help to control this disease, however, current vaccines are imperfect. They are made using chemically inactivated FMD virus (FMDV) that is produced in mammalian...... cell culture under high containment. Here, we have expressed the FMDV capsid protein precursor (P1-2A) of strain O1 Manisa alone or with the FMDV 3C protease (3Cpro) using a “single cycle” packaged alphavirus self-replicating RNA based on Semliki Forest virus (SFV). When the FMDV P1-2A was expressed...... with 3Cpro then processing of the FMDV capsid precursor protein is observed within cells and the proteins assemble into empty capsid particles. In cattle vaccinated once with these rSFV-FMDV vectors alone, anti-FMDV antibodies were elicited but the immune response was insufficient to give protection...

  11. Venezuelan Equine Encephalitis Replicon Particles Can Induce Rapid Protection against Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus

    OpenAIRE

    Diaz-San Segundo, Fayna; Dias, Camila C. A.; Moraes, Mauro P.; Weiss, Marcelo; Perez-Martin, Eva; Owens, Gary; Custer, Max; Kamrud, Kurt; de los Santos, Teresa; Grubman, Marvin J.

    2013-01-01

    We have previously shown that delivery of the porcine type I interferon gene (poIFN-α/β) with a replication-defective human adenovirus vector (adenovirus 5 [Ad5]) can sterilely protect swine challenged with foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) 1 day later. However, the need of relatively high doses of Ad5 limits the applicability of such a control strategy in the livestock industry. Venezuelan equine encephalitis virus (VEE) empty replicon particles (VRPs) can induce rapid protection of mice a...

  12. Comparison of immune responses after intra-typic heterologous and homologous vaccination against foot-and-mouth disease virus infection in pigs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Eble, P.L.; Bruin, de M.G.M.; Bouma, A.; Hemert-Kluitenberg, van F.; Dekker, A.

    2006-01-01

    This study compares the immune responses and protection induced by intra-typic heterologous vaccination with that induced by homologous vaccination against challenge with foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV). Humoral and cell-mediated immune responses and protection against challenge with FMDV O

  13. Topology dependent epidemic spreading velocity in weighted networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duan, Wei; Qiu, Xiaogang; Quax, Rick; Lees, Michael; Sloot, Peter M A

    2014-01-01

    Many diffusive processes occur on structured networks with weighted links, such as disease spread by airplane transport or information diffusion in social networks or blogs. Understanding the impact of weight-connectivity correlations on epidemic spreading in weighted networks is crucial to support decision-making on disease control and other diffusive processes. However, a real understanding of epidemic spreading velocity in weighted networks is still lacking. Here we conduct a numerical study of the velocity of a Reed–Frost epidemic spreading process in various weighted network topologies as a function of the correlations between edge weights and node degrees. We find that a positive weight-connectivity correlation leads to a faster epidemic spreading compared to an unweighted network. In contrast, we find that both uncorrelated and negatively correlated weight distributions lead to slower spreading processes. In the case of positive weight-connectivity correlations, the acceleration of spreading velocity is weak when the heterogeneity of weight distribution increases. (paper)

  14. The diagnostic utility of stabilized blood for detection of foot-and-mouth disease virus RNA by RT-qPCR

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    S. Fontél, Kristina; Bøtner, Anette; Belsham, Graham

    In Europe, clinical signs indicative of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD), would immediately lead to collection of blood and relevant organ material for further laboratory examination for this vesicular disease virus. Today, the first line system for detection of virus in the sample material is real t...... time RT-PCR (RT-qPCR). The aim of this study was to investigate the diagnostic utility of stabilized blood for detection of FMDV RNA in this system....

  15. Management of burning mouth syndrome taking into consideration various etiologic factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kenchadze, R L; Ivereli, M B; Geladze, N M; Khachapuridze, N S; Bakhtadze, S Z

    2013-05-01

    The aim of the research was to detect the stomatologic, endocrine and psycho-neurologic status in patients with burning mouth syndrome, elaborate different diagnostic criteria and effective therapy for the patients with burning mouth syndrome. 92 patients with burning mouth syndrome were studied. Patients ranged in age from 28 to 72 years. The conducted studies gave the possibility to make conclusions, the most important of which are: burning mouth syndrome (BMS) is not only stomatologic problem; this psychosomatic syndrome belongs to gerontologic disease and tendency of its "rejuvenation" was revealed as well (in the current study --2 women (28 and 32 year old, and 38 year old man); degree of revelation of the symptoms of depression, anxiety, obsession and somatization is closely related with duration of the diseases. These symptoms are progressing together with aging and reach the peak at 60-70 years old. Individual scheme of therapy was developed on the background of clinico-paraclinical study.

  16. Molecular characterization of foot-and-mouth disease virus: implications for disease control in Bangladesh.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loth, L; Osmani, M G; Kalam, M A; Chakraborty, R K; Wadsworth, J; Knowles, N J; Hammond, J M; Benigno, C

    2011-06-01

    Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is endemic in Bangladesh, and to implement an effective FMD control programme, it is essential to understand the complex epidemiology of the disease. Here, we report on the characterization of FMD virus (FMDV) recovered from FMD outbreaks in Bangladesh in late 2009. All isolated viruses belonged to the FMDV serotype O. The phylogenetic reconstruction showed that all isolates belonged to the Middle East-South Asia (ME-SA) topotype, but fell into two distinct sublineages, one named Ind-2001 (the other has not been named). Within both sublineages, the 2009 Bangladesh isolates were most closely related to viruses from Nepal collected during 2008 and 2009. Additionally, both sublineages contained older viruses from India collected in 2000 and 2001. In South Asia, there is extensive cross-border cattle movement from Nepal and India to Bangladesh. Both these findings have implications for the control of FMD in Bangladesh. Because of the porous borders, a regional FMD control strategy should be developed. Further, animal identification and monitoring animal movements are necessary to identify the cross-border movements and market chain interactions of ruminants, leading to improved border and movement controls. Additionally, a vaccination strategy should be developed with the initial objective of protecting small-scale dairy herds from disease. For any successful FMD control programme, long-term Government commitment and adequate resources are necessary. A sustainable programme will also need farmer education, commitment and financial contributions. © 2011 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

  17. Burning Mouth Syndrome

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Care Home Health Info Health Topics Burning Mouth Burning Mouth Syndrome (BMS) is a painful, complex condition often described ... or other symptoms. Read More Publications Cover image Burning Mouth Syndrome Publication files Download Language English PDF — Number of ...

  18. Construction of stabilized and tagged foot-and-mouth disease virus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Jeong-Nam; Ko, Mi-Kyeong; Kim, Rae-Hyung; Park, Min-Eun; Lee, Seo-Yong; Yoon, Ji-Eun; Choi, Joo-Hyung; You, Su-Hwa; Park, Jung-Won; Lee, Kwang-Nyeong; Chun, Ji-Eun; Kim, Su-Mi; Tark, Dongseob; Lee, Hyang-Sim; Ko, Young-Joon; Kim, Byounghan; Lee, Myoung-Heon; Park, Jong-Hyeon

    2016-11-01

    Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious and economically devastating disease that affects cloven-hoofed animals worldwide. Construction and purification of stable antigen for vaccine are necessary but technically difficult and laborious. Here, we have tried to investigate an alternative method by inserting a hexa-histidine tag (6xHIS) in the VP1 C-terminal for easy purification and replacing two amino acids of VP1/VP2 to enhance the stability of the capsid of the FMD virus (FMDV) Asia1/MOG/05. In addition, infectious 6xHIS-tagged stable (S/T) FMDVs were maintained under acidic conditions (pH 6.0) and were readily purified from small-scale cultures using a commercial metal-affinity column. The groups vaccinated with the S/T FMDV antigen showed complete protection comparing to low survival rate in the group vaccinated with non-S/T FMDV against lethal challenge with Asia1 Shamir in mice. Therefore, the present findings indicate that the stabilized and tagged antigen offers an alternative to using the current methods for antigen purification and enhancement of stability and has potential for the development of a new FMD vaccine. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  19. Serotype Diversity of Foot-and-Mouth-Disease Virus in Livestock without History of Vaccination in the Far North Region of Cameroon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ludi, A; Ahmed, Z; Pomeroy, L W; Pauszek, S J; Smoliga, G R; Moritz, M; Dickmu, S; Abdoulkadiri, S; Arzt, J; Garabed, R; Rodriguez, L L

    2016-02-01

    Little information is available about the natural cycle of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in the absence of control measures such as vaccination. Cameroon presents a unique opportunity for epidemiological studies because FMD vaccination is not practiced. We carried out a prospective study including serological, antigenic and genetic aspects of FMD virus (FMDV) infections among different livestock production systems in the Far North of Cameroon to gain insight into the natural ecology of the virus. We found serological evidence of FMDV infection in over 75% of the animals sampled with no significant differences of prevalence observed among the sampled groups (i.e. market, sedentary, transboundary trade and mobile). We also found antibodies reactive to five of the seven FMDV serotypes (A, O, SAT1, SAT2 and SAT3) among the animals sampled. Finally, we were able to genetically characterize viruses obtained from clinical and subclinical FMD infections in Cameroon. Serotype O viruses grouped into two topotypes (West and East Africa). SAT2 viruses grouped with viruses from Central and Northern Africa, notably within the sublineage causing the large epidemic in Northern Africa in 2012, suggesting a common origin for these viruses. This research will guide future interventions for the control of FMD such as improved diagnostics, guidance for vaccine formulation and epidemiological understanding in support of the progressive control of FMD in Cameroon. Published 2014. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

  20. Modeling Estimated Personnel Needs for a Potential Foot and Mouth Disease Outbreak

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Simmons, K; Hullinger, P

    2008-01-29

    Foot and Mouth disease (FMD) is a highly infectious and contagious viral disease affecting cloven-hoofed livestock that was last detected in the United States (US) in 1929. The prevalence of FMD in other countries, as well as the current potential for this virus to be used as a form of agroterrorism, has made preparations for a potential FMD outbreak a national priority. To assist in the evaluation of national preparedness, all 50 states were surveyed via e-mail, telephone and web search to obtain emergency response plans for FMD or for foreign animal diseases in general. Information from 33 states was obtained and analyzed for estimates of personnel resources needed to respond to an outbreak. These estimates were consolidated and enhanced to create a tool that could be used by individual states to better understand the personnel that would be needed to complete various tasks over time during an outbreak response. The estimates were then coupled, post-processing, to the output from FMD outbreaks simulated in California using the Multiscale Epidemiological/Economic Simulation and Analysis (MESA) model at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory to estimate the personnel resource demands, by task, over the course of an outbreak response.

  1. [Chronic non-communicable diseases: a global epidemic of the 21st century].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andersen, Karl; Gudnason, Vilmundur

    2012-11-01

    Chronic non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are the cause of 86% of all deaths in the EU and 65% of deaths worldwide. A third of these deaths occur before the age of sixty years. The NCDs affect 40% of the adult population of the EU and two thirds of the population reaching retirement age suffers from two or more NCDs. The NCDs are a global epidemic challenging economic growth in most countries. According to the WHO, NCDs are one of the major threats to worldwide social and economic development in the 21st century. The problem is of great concern to the international community and was discussed at a High level meeting at the UN General Assembly in September 2011. In this paper we review the epidemic of NCDs both from a national and international perspective. We discuss the causes and consequences. In a second review paper we reflect on the political health policy issues raised by the international community in order to respond to the problem. These issues will become a major challenge for social and economic development in most countries of the world in the coming decades.

  2. A novel Enterovirus 96 circulating in China causes hand, foot, and mouth disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Yi; Sun, Yisuo; Ma, Jinmin; Zhou, Shuru; Fang, Wei; Ye, Jiawei; Tan, Limei; Ji, Jingkai; Luo, Dan; Li, Liqiang; Li, Jiandong; Fang, Chunxiao; Pei, Na; Shi, Shuo; Liu, Xin; Jiang, Hui; Gong, Sitang; Xu, Xun

    2017-06-01

    Enterovirus 96 (EV-96) is a recently described member of the species Enterovirus C and is associated with paralysis and myelitis. In this study, using metagenomic sequencing, we identified a new enterovirus 96 strain (EV-96-SZ/GD/CHN/2014) as the sole pathogen causing hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD). A genomic comparison showed that EV-96-SZ/GD/CHN/2014 is most similar to the EV-96-05517 strain (85% identity), which has also been detected in Guangdong Province. This is the first time that metagenomic sequencing has been used to identify an EV-96 strain shown to be associated with HFMD.

  3. Temporal and spatial mapping of hand, foot and mouth disease in Sarawak, Malaysia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sham, Noraishah M; Krishnarajah, Isthrinayagy; Ibrahim, Noor Akma; Lye, Munn-Sann

    2014-05-01

    Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is endemic in Sarawak, Malaysia. In this study, a geographical information system (GIS) was used to investigate the relationship between the reported HFMD cases and the spatial patterns in 11 districts of Sarawak from 2006 to 2012. Within this 7-years period, the highest number of reported HFMD cases occurred in 2006, followed by 2012, 2008, 2009, 2007, 2010 and 2011, in descending order. However, while there was no significant distribution pattern or clustering in the first part of the study period (2006 to 2011) based on Moran's I statistic, spatial autocorrelation (P = 0.068) was observed in 2012.

  4. Characterization of foot-and-mouth disease virus's viral peptides with LC-ESI-MS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pzdemir, Z.O.; Bulut, E.K.; Mustafeva, Z.; Karahan, M.

    2010-01-01

    Peptides and proteins play a central role in numerous biological and physiological processes in living organisms. Viral capsid peptides are part of the viruses' outer shell of genetic materials. Viruses are recognized by immune system via capsid peptides. Depending on this property of capsid peptides, prototypes synthetic peptide-based vaccine can be developed. In this work, we synthesized three different viral peptide sequences of foot-and-mouth disease virus with microwave enhanced solid phase synthesis method. These peptides were characterized by using liquid chromatography electro spray interface mass spectrometry (LC-ESI-MS) with electro spray ionization. We briefly describe the essential facts for peptide characterization. (author)

  5. Lifestyle Choices Fuel Epidemics of Diabetes and Cardiovascular Disease Among Asian Indians.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Keefe, Evan L; DiNicolantonio, James J; Patil, Harshal; Helzberg, John H; Lavie, Carl J

    2016-01-01

    Within the next 15years, India is projected to overtake China as the world's most populous nation. Due to the rapid pace of urbanization and modernization fueling population growth, in conjunction with a genetic predisposition to insulin resistance, India is suffering a rising epidemic of non-communicable diseases (NCDs), including coronary artery disease (CAD), type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), and stroke. In addition to the genetic predisposition, major negative lifestyle factors are contributing to the alarming outbreak of cardiovascular disease (CVD) among the Asian Indian population; these factors include: 1) a diet high in added sugar, refined grains and other processed foods, 2) physical inactivity, 3) vitamin D deficiency (VDD), and 4) smoking/pollution. These risk factors are all highly modifiable, and steps to improve these issues should be taken urgently to avoid a worsening NCD crisis among the inhabitants of the South Asian subcontinent as well as for people with Asian Indian ethnicity worldwide. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Theoretical basis to measure the impact of short-lasting control of an infectious disease on the epidemic peak

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Omori Ryosuke

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background While many pandemic preparedness plans have promoted disease control effort to lower and delay an epidemic peak, analytical methods for determining the required control effort and making statistical inferences have yet to be sought. As a first step to address this issue, we present a theoretical basis on which to assess the impact of an early intervention on the epidemic peak, employing a simple epidemic model. Methods We focus on estimating the impact of an early control effort (e.g. unsuccessful containment, assuming that the transmission rate abruptly increases when control is discontinued. We provide analytical expressions for magnitude and time of the epidemic peak, employing approximate logistic and logarithmic-form solutions for the latter. Empirical influenza data (H1N1-2009 in Japan are analyzed to estimate the effect of the summer holiday period in lowering and delaying the peak in 2009. Results Our model estimates that the epidemic peak of the 2009 pandemic was delayed for 21 days due to summer holiday. Decline in peak appears to be a nonlinear function of control-associated reduction in the reproduction number. Peak delay is shown to critically depend on the fraction of initially immune individuals. Conclusions The proposed modeling approaches offer methodological avenues to assess empirical data and to objectively estimate required control effort to lower and delay an epidemic peak. Analytical findings support a critical need to conduct population-wide serological survey as a prior requirement for estimating the time of peak.

  7. U.K. Foot and Mouth Disease: A Systemic Risk Assessment of Existing Controls.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delgado, João; Pollard, Simon; Pearn, Kerry; Snary, Emma L; Black, Edgar; Prpich, George; Longhurst, Phil

    2017-09-01

    This article details a systemic analysis of the controls in place and possible interventions available to further reduce the risk of a foot and mouth disease (FMD) outbreak in the United Kingdom. Using a research-based network analysis tool, we identify vulnerabilities within the multibarrier control system and their corresponding critical control points (CCPs). CCPs represent opportunities for active intervention that produce the greatest improvement to United Kingdom's resilience to future FMD outbreaks. Using an adapted 'features, events, and processes' (FEPs) methodology and network analysis, our results suggest that movements of animals and goods associated with legal activities significantly influence the system's behavior due to their higher frequency and ability to combine and create scenarios of exposure similar in origin to the U.K. FMD outbreaks of 1967/8 and 2001. The systemic risk assessment highlights areas outside of disease control that are relevant to disease spread. Further, it proves to be a powerful tool for demonstrating the need for implementing disease controls that have not previously been part of the system. © 2016 The Authors Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.

  8. Evaluation of FTA(®) card for the rescue of infectious foot-and-mouth disease virus by chemical transfection of extracted RNA in cultured cells.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biswal, Jitendra K; Subramaniam, Saravanan; Ranjan, Rajeev; Pattnaik, Bramhadev

    2016-08-01

    Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious epidemic disease of transboundary importance. Inadequate storage and shipment of suspected clinical samples can compromise the ability to detect and characterise FMD virus (FMDV) in endemic countries, thereby, leading to the loss of valuable virological and epidemiological data. This study, investigates the potential of using FTA(®) cards for dry transportation of clinical samples and subsequent recovery of infectious FMDV by chemical transfection of FTA(®) card fixed RNA as an alternative to the conventional cell culture based virus isolation method. A higher proportion of infectious FMDV was rescued from clinical samples (cell culture isolates, tongue epithelial suspension and impression smears) by the FTA(®) card fixed RNA transfection method (76%) compared to the conventional cell culture based virus isolation (56%), suggesting a better performance of the current RNA transfection procedure. Furthermore, it was possible to rescue live virus by the transfection of RNA extracted from FTA(®) card impregnated with clinical samples that had been stored at varying temperature (4-37 °C) up to a period of six weeks. The VP1 sequence data and antigenic relationships with the vaccine strains, between viruses rescued by FTA(®) card fixed RNA transfection and conventional cell culture, were comparable. Therefore, these results support the use of the FTA(®) card for the economic, dry, non-hazardous transport of FMD suspected clinical samples from the site of collection to national/international reference laboratories. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Does Oral Vaccination Protect Rainbow Trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) Against Enteric Red Mouth Disease?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Neumann, Lukas; Villumsen, Kasper Rømer; Kragelund Strøm, Helene

    . ruckeri bacteria are need in order to obtain significantly increased immunity against the disease. These results suggest that a high amount of the vaccine is digested in the stomach of the rainbow trout and therefore did not reach the intestine as immunogenic antigens. The project is still ongoing....... The objective for this project is to investigate whether oral vaccination of rainbow trout against Yersinia ruckeri O1 (biotype 1) causing Enteric Red Mouth disease (ERM) can protect rainbow trout against a subsequent experimental bath challenge with Y. ruckeri. The rainbow trout were given oral vaccinations...... primary vaccination), 5) AquaVac ERM (as a primary vaccine), 6) AquaVac w/ booster, and 7) one group with 10 fold increase (w/ booster) of the experimental vaccine in the feed. The rainbow trout were bath challenged with 6.3 x108 CFU/ml Y. ruckeri 6 month post the primary oral vaccination. The challenge...

  10. Dry Mouth (Xerostomia)

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... mouth Trouble chewing, swallowing, tasting, or speaking A burning feeling in the mouth A dry feeling in the throat Cracked lips ... Food and Drug Administration provides information on dry mouth and offers advice for ... Syndrome Clinic NIDCR Sjogren’s Syndrome Clinic develops new therapies ...

  11. Data on the irradiation of liquid manure artificially infected with foot-and mouth disease virus

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simon, J.; Solyom, F.; Felkai, V.; Oroszlany, P.

    1976-01-01

    Research on the application of an ionizing radiation treatment to liquid manure infected with Foot- and Mouth disease virus is described. Virus suspensions diluted with a phosphate buffer solution showed a considerable decrease of virulence already at an exposure to 0.4 - 0.8 Mrad at low initial titre. 1.2 Mrad proved to be effective also against high concentrations of the virus. However, with liquid manure used as diluent, a certain protective effect was noted against the destructive influence of radiation on the virus. (author)

  12. Relationship between serologic response and clinical symptoms in children with enterovirus 71-infected hand-foot-mouth disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Jun; Zhao, Chao; Cao, Ping; Shi, Peng; Cao, Lingfeng; Zhu, Qirong

    2015-01-01

    This study aimed to explore the correlation between clinical symptoms, including rash and fever, and serum antibody reaction to enterovirus 71 (EV71) infection in children hospitalized due to hand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD). From May 2014 to July 2014, a total of 547 children hospitalized due to HFMD in Children's Hospital of Fudan University were enrolled retrospectively. RNA levels of EV71 and CA16 in fecal, serum, and cerebrospinal fluid specimens were measured using quantitative real-time RT-PCR, and EV71-IgM antibody in the serum was detected using immune colloidal gold assays. Of the 547 fecal specimens, 296 were EV71 RNA positive, 109 were CA16 RNA positive, and 8 were positive for both EV71 RNA and CA16 RNA. The total positive rate for either EV71 or CA16 in feces was 72.58% (397/547). Additionally, 544 serum specimens were collected, and 409 were EV71-IgM positive (75.18%). The duration of rash and fever was found to be correlated to the positive rate of serum EV71-IgM, and the positive rate of serum EV71-IgM plus EV71 RNA in feces. The positive rates of serum EV71-IgM and serum EV71-IgM plus EV71 RNA in fecal collected at day 3 of fever were 79.7% and 52.8%, respectively. In conclusion, EV71 and CA16 were found to be the major pathogens responsible for the epidemics of HFMD in children during May to July 2014 in Shanghai, China. There is a close relationship between the positive rate of serum EV71-IgM and the duration of fever and rash.

  13. Epidemics on interconnected networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dickison, Mark; Havlin, S.; Stanley, H. E.

    2012-06-01

    Populations are seldom completely isolated from their environment. Individuals in a particular geographic or social region may be considered a distinct network due to strong local ties but will also interact with individuals in other networks. We study the susceptible-infected-recovered process on interconnected network systems and find two distinct regimes. In strongly coupled network systems, epidemics occur simultaneously across the entire system at a critical infection strength βc, below which the disease does not spread. In contrast, in weakly coupled network systems, a mixed phase exists below βc of the coupled network system, where an epidemic occurs in one network but does not spread to the coupled network. We derive an expression for the network and disease parameters that allow this mixed phase and verify it numerically. Public health implications of communities comprising these two classes of network systems are also mentioned.

  14. Hybrid epidemic spreading - from Internet worms to HIV infection

    OpenAIRE

    Zhang, C.

    2015-01-01

    Epidemic phenomena are ubiquitous, ranging from infectious diseases, computer viruses, to information dissemination. Epidemics have traditionally been studied as a single spreading process, either in a fully mixed population or on a network. Many epidemics, however, are hybrid, employing more than one spreading mechanism. For example, the Internet worm Conficker spreads locally targeting neighbouring computers in local networks as well as globally by randomly probing any computer on the Inter...

  15. Elevated levels of circulating histones indicate disease activity in patients with hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Xiuhui; Li, Qin; Li, Junhong; Li, Ying; Chen, Yuping; Lv, Aiping; Zhang, Jian; Ding, Jianbo; Von Maltzan, Kristine; Wen, Tao

    2014-12-01

    Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is a common infectious disease in children, characterized by acute viral infection accompanying acute inflammatory responses. Circulating histones are leading mediators of the inflammatory processes. This study aimed to elucidate whether circulating histones play a contributory role during HFMD. We measured plasma levels of histones, myeloperoxidase (MPO), lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), and cytokines in HFMD patients (n = 126) and compared the results with those of a control group (n = 30). Circulating histone levels were significantly increased in HFMD patients (3.794 ± 0.156 μg/ml) compared with healthy controls (0.238 ± 0.023 μg/ml, p histones correlated positively with plasma IL-6 and IL-10, whereas in severe HFMD, histones were associated with elevated IL-6 and TNF-ɑ levels. These data demonstrate that circulating histones are excessively released in patients with HFMD, which may indicate disease severity and contribute to systemic inflammation by promoting cytokine production (e.g. IL-6). We suggest that in mild HFMD, circulating histones may originate largely from neutrophil activation, whereas in severe HFMD, dying tissue cells and neutrophil activation may be synergistically involved in the increased levels of histones.

  16. Foot-and-mouth disease virus: A first inter-laboratory comparison trial to evaluate virus isolation and RT-PCR detection methods.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ferris, N.P.; King, D.P.; Reid, S.M.; Hutchings, G.H.; Shawa, A.E.; Paton, D.J.; Goris, N.; Haas, B.; Hoffmann, B.; Brocchi, E.; Bugnetti, M.; Dekker, A.; Clerq, De K.

    2006-01-01

    Five European reference laboratories participated in an exercise to evaluate the sensitivity and specificity of their routinely employed RT-PCR tests and cell cultures for the detection and isolation of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) virus. Five identical sets of 20 coded samples were prepared from 10

  17. Modulation of Cytokine mRNA Expression in Pharyngeal Epithelial Samples obtained from Cattle Infected with Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stenfeldt, Anna Carolina; Heegaard, Peter M. H.; Stockmarr, Anders

    2012-01-01

    A novel technique of endoscopical collection of small tissue samples was used to obtain sequential tissue samples from the dorsal soft palate (DSP) of individual cattle infected with foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) at different phases of the infection. Levels of mRNA encoding interferon (IFN)...

  18. Toward a generalized theory of epidemic awareness in social networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Qingchu; Zhu, Wenfang

    We discuss the dynamics of a susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model with local awareness in networks. Individual awareness to the infectious disease is characterized by a general function of epidemic information in its neighborhood. We build a high-accuracy approximate equation governing the spreading dynamics and derive an approximate epidemic threshold above which the epidemic spreads over the whole network. Our results extend the previous work and show that the epidemic threshold is dependent on the awareness function in terms of one infectious neighbor. Interestingly, when a pow-law awareness function is chosen, the epidemic threshold can emerge in infinite networks.

  19. Control of foot and mouth disease: the experience of the Americas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Correa Melo, E; López, A

    2002-12-01

    Foot and mouth disease (FMD) was first recognised in South America in 1870, almost simultaneously in the province of Buenos Aires (Argentina), in the central region of Chile, in Uruguay, in southern Brazil and coincidentally, on the northeastern coast of the United States of America. The epidemiology of the disease was unknown and no government action was taken following the initial outbreaks. This resulted in the disease spreading to other areas of Chile, as well as to Peru, Bolivia and Paraguay, reaching Venezuela and Colombia in the 1950s, and Ecuador in 1961. The entire continent was affected in the 1960s when national FMD control programmes were initiated, with the exception of Guyana, Surinam, French Guiana and Patagonia. In the 1970s, steps were taken to implement a regional control and eradication strategy in view of the impact of production and trade on the persistence of the virus. The Plan Hemisférico de Erradicación de la Fiebre Aftosa (PHEFA: Hemispheric FMD Eradication Plan), public- and private-sector policies, new diagnostic tools, the oil-adjuvanted FMD vaccine and regional strategies played a part in improving the epidemiological situation during the 1990s. A setback was encountered in 2000 and 2001, with outbreaks due to virus types A and 0 recorded in Argentina, Uruguay and Brazil.

  20. Clinical features for 89 deaths of hand, foot and mouth disease in Guangxi, China, 2014

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei Lin

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Objectives: The aim of this study is to summarize the risk factors of severe Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD and explore the clinical characteristics of pulmonary edema (PE and non-PE in the deceased patients with HFMD. Methods: We identified 89 HFMD deaths which were separated into the PE group or non-PE group. Next, patients were divided based on their initial admission to hospitals as stage 1, 2, 3, or 4; at this point, their clinical manifestations were compared. Results: There were 87 cases in the PE group, and 2 cases in the non-PE group. In the PE group, the difference in median time for patients at different stages from onset to symptoms, showed no significant difference (p > 0.05. The etiology was detected as a positive rate for enterovirus 71 (EV71 of 89.19%, which showed a more severe course than other etiologies. The white blood cell (WBC counts, lymphocyte (LYM counts and creatine kinase MB (CK-MB counts of patients admitted in different stages increased significantly with severity (p < 0.05. Conclusions: There may be two clinical subtypes, mostly PE and rarely non-PE, in the deceased patients with HMFD. EV71 and risk factors such as an increased WBC count are associated with a severe course of HMFD. Keywords: Hand, foot, and mouth disease, Pulmonary edema, Non-pulmonary edema, Death cases

  1. Epidemic processes in complex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pastor-Satorras, Romualdo; Castellano, Claudio; Van Mieghem, Piet; Vespignani, Alessandro

    2015-07-01

    In recent years the research community has accumulated overwhelming evidence for the emergence of complex and heterogeneous connectivity patterns in a wide range of biological and sociotechnical systems. The complex properties of real-world networks have a profound impact on the behavior of equilibrium and nonequilibrium phenomena occurring in various systems, and the study of epidemic spreading is central to our understanding of the unfolding of dynamical processes in complex networks. The theoretical analysis of epidemic spreading in heterogeneous networks requires the development of novel analytical frameworks, and it has produced results of conceptual and practical relevance. A coherent and comprehensive review of the vast research activity concerning epidemic processes is presented, detailing the successful theoretical approaches as well as making their limits and assumptions clear. Physicists, mathematicians, epidemiologists, computer, and social scientists share a common interest in studying epidemic spreading and rely on similar models for the description of the diffusion of pathogens, knowledge, and innovation. For this reason, while focusing on the main results and the paradigmatic models in infectious disease modeling, the major results concerning generalized social contagion processes are also presented. Finally, the research activity at the forefront in the study of epidemic spreading in coevolving, coupled, and time-varying networks is reported.

  2. Recovery of viral RNA and infectious foot-and-mouth disease virus from positive lateral-flow devices.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Veronica L Fowler

    Full Text Available Foot-and-mouth disease Virus (FMDV is an economically important, highly contagious picornavirus that affects both wild and domesticated cloven hooved animals. In developing countries, the effective laboratory diagnosis of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD is often hindered by inadequate sample preservation due to difficulties in the transportation and storage of clinical material. These factors can compromise the ability to detect and characterise FMD virus in countries where the disease is endemic. Furthermore, the high cost of sending infectious virus material and the biosecurity risk it presents emphasises the need for a thermo-stable, non-infectious mode of transporting diagnostic samples. This paper investigates the potential of using FMDV lateral-flow devices (LFDs for dry transportation of clinical samples for subsequent nucleic acid amplification, sequencing and recovery of infectious virus by electroporation. FMDV positive samples (epithelial suspensions and cell culture isolates representing four FMDV serotypes were applied to antigen LFDs: after which it was possible to recover viral RNA that could be detected using real-time RT-PCR. Using this nucleic acid, it was also possible to recover VP1 sequences and also successfully utilise protocols for amplification of complete FMD virus genomes. It was not possible to recover infectious FMDV directly from the LFDs, however following electroporation into BHK-21 cells and subsequent cell passage, infectious virus could be recovered. Therefore, these results support the use of the antigen LFD for the dry, non-hazardous transportation of samples from FMD endemic countries to international reference laboratories.

  3. Detection of foot-and-mouth disease virus rna by reverse transcription loop-mediated isothermal amplification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chen Hao-tai

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract A reverse transcription loop-mediated isothermal amplification (RT-LAMP assay was developed for foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV RNA. The amplification was able to finish in 45 min under isothermal condition at 64°C by employing a set of four primers targeting FMDV 2B. The assay showed higher sensitivity than RT-PCR. No cross reactivity was observed from other RNA viruses including classical swine fever virus, swine vesicular disease, porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus, Japanese encephalitis virus. Furthermore, the assay correctly detected 84 FMDV positive samples but not 65 FMDV negative specimens. The result indicated the potential usefulness of the technique as a simple and rapid procedure for the detection of FMDV infection.

  4. Spatial pattern of foot-and-mouth disease virus serotypes in North Central Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yiltawe Simwal Wungak

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Aim: This study aimed to determine the foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV serotypes circulating, the prevalence of FMDV serotypes, and the spatial distribution of FMDV among sedentary and pastoral cattle herds in the North-Central Nigeria. Materials and Methods: A cross-sectional study was undertaken, during which a total of 155 sera that tested positive for foot-and-mouth disease (FMD 3ABC non-structural protein antibodies were selected and screened for FMD structural protein serotypes, A, O, SAT 1, and SAT 2 using a solid-phase competitive enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA. Epithelial tissue specimens were collected during outbreak investigations which were tested for FMD using an antigen capture ELISA for serotype A, O, SAT 1, and SAT 2. Results: An overall serotype-specific prevalence of 79.35 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 72.4-85.18 was recorded for serotype O, 65.2% (95% CI: 57.41-72.3 for serotype A, 52.9% (95% CI: 45.03-60.67 for SAT-2, and 33.55% (95% CI: 26.45-41.26 for SAT-1. Evidence of exposure to multiple FMDV serotypes showed that 12.26% of the sera samples had antibodies against four serotypes circulating, 30.97% had antibodies against three serotypes circulating, 22.58% had antibodies against two serotypes, and 17% showed exposure to only one serotype. Clinical specimens (epithelial tissue collected during outbreak investigations showed that serotype O has the highest proportion of 50% with serotype A - 25%; SAT 2 - 20.8%; and SAT 1 - 4.1%. Conclusion: The study detected diffuse and co-circulation of serotypes A, O, SAT1, and SAT2 within the study area, and hence the need for the appropriately matched multivalent vaccine is strongly advocated for FMD control in Nigeria.

  5. Foot-and-Mouth Disease in the Middle East Caused by an A/ASIA/G-VII Virus Lineage, 2015-2016.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bachanek-Bankowska, Katarzyna; Di Nardo, Antonello; Wadsworth, Jemma; Henry, Elisabeth K M; Parlak, Ünal; Timina, Anna; Mischenko, Alexey; Qasim, Ibrahim Ahmad; Abdollahi, Darab; Sultana, Munawar; Hossain, M Anwar; King, Donald P; Knowles, Nick J

    2018-06-01

    Phylogenetic analyses of foot-and-mouth disease type A viruses in the Middle East during 2015-2016 identified viruses belonging to the A/ASIA/G-VII lineage, which originated in the Indian subcontinent. Changes in a critical antigenic site within capsid viral protein 1 suggest possible evolutionary pressure caused by an intensive vaccination program.

  6. Flexible Modeling of Epidemics with an Empirical Bayes Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brooks, Logan C.; Farrow, David C.; Hyun, Sangwon; Tibshirani, Ryan J.; Rosenfeld, Roni

    2015-01-01

    Seasonal influenza epidemics cause consistent, considerable, widespread loss annually in terms of economic burden, morbidity, and mortality. With access to accurate and reliable forecasts of a current or upcoming influenza epidemic’s behavior, policy makers can design and implement more effective countermeasures. This past year, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention hosted the “Predict the Influenza Season Challenge”, with the task of predicting key epidemiological measures for the 2013–2014 U.S. influenza season with the help of digital surveillance data. We developed a framework for in-season forecasts of epidemics using a semiparametric Empirical Bayes framework, and applied it to predict the weekly percentage of outpatient doctors visits for influenza-like illness, and the season onset, duration, peak time, and peak height, with and without using Google Flu Trends data. Previous work on epidemic modeling has focused on developing mechanistic models of disease behavior and applying time series tools to explain historical data. However, tailoring these models to certain types of surveillance data can be challenging, and overly complex models with many parameters can compromise forecasting ability. Our approach instead produces possibilities for the epidemic curve of the season of interest using modified versions of data from previous seasons, allowing for reasonable variations in the timing, pace, and intensity of the seasonal epidemics, as well as noise in observations. Since the framework does not make strict domain-specific assumptions, it can easily be applied to some other diseases with seasonal epidemics. This method produces a complete posterior distribution over epidemic curves, rather than, for example, solely point predictions of forecasting targets. We report prospective influenza-like-illness forecasts made for the 2013–2014 U.S. influenza season, and compare the framework’s cross-validated prediction error on historical data to

  7. Immunogenicity evaluation of MS2 phage-mediated chimeric nanoparticle displaying an immunodominant B cell epitope of foot-and-mouth disease virus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guoqiang Wang

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD is a highly contagious disease of cloven-hoofed animals that has caused tremendous economic losses worldwide. In this study, we designed a chimeric nanoparticles (CNPs vaccine that displays the predominant epitope of the serotype O foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV VP1 131-160 on the surface of MS2 phage. The recombinant protein was expressed in Escherichia Coli and can self-assemble into CNPs with diameter at 25–30 nm in vitro. A tandem repeat peptide epitopes (TRE was prepared as control. Mice were immunized with CNPs, TRE and commercialized synthetic peptide vaccines (PepVac, respectively. The ELISA results showed that CNPs stimulated a little higher specific antibody levels to PepVac, but was significantly higher than the TRE groups. Moreover, the results from specific IFN-γ responses and lymphocyte proliferation test indicated that CNP immunized mice exhibited significantly enhanced cellular immune response compared to TRE. These results suggested that the CNPs constructed in current study could be a potential alternative vaccine in future FMDV control.

  8. Inferring epidemic contact structure from phylogenetic trees.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriel E Leventhal

    Full Text Available Contact structure is believed to have a large impact on epidemic spreading and consequently using networks to model such contact structure continues to gain interest in epidemiology. However, detailed knowledge of the exact contact structure underlying real epidemics is limited. Here we address the question whether the structure of the contact network leaves a detectable genetic fingerprint in the pathogen population. To this end we compare phylogenies generated by disease outbreaks in simulated populations with different types of contact networks. We find that the shape of these phylogenies strongly depends on contact structure. In particular, measures of tree imbalance allow us to quantify to what extent the contact structure underlying an epidemic deviates from a null model contact network and illustrate this in the case of random mixing. Using a phylogeny from the Swiss HIV epidemic, we show that this epidemic has a significantly more unbalanced tree than would be expected from random mixing.

  9. [Observations on the 1348 plague epidemic. Measures taken to combat its tragic effects and avoid epidemic recrudescence].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sabbatani, Sergio

    2003-03-01

    When the "Black Death" swept through Europe from southern France in 1348, in the short space of two years the Europeans were hit by one of the most serious epidemics ever recorded in human history. Yersinia pestis reached Europe by sea, its contamination propagated by the Genoese ships coming from the Crimean port of Jaffa. For the first time the world experienced microbiological unification: East and West were equally involved in the tragedy that spread, and no town remained unscathed during the various epidemic waves which succeeded one another in the following three centuries. The authors of this article describe how and why the epidemic spread, as well as the factors that led to the swift, and often fatal, involment of millions of Europeans. The second part of the article deals with the measures taken by the healthcare authorities of European towns and countries in order to halt the proliferation of the disease. According to the data and observations by authoritative authors, selected among the many who studied the disease that from the 14th century spread like a scourge throughout the known world at the time, the epidemic could have been even more serious, in terms of mortality and morbidity, without the disciplinary and provisional health measures taken. The experience gained in Italy and all over Europe at the time proved useful not only to better manage the epidemics which cyclically broke out, but also to efficiently combat the cholera epidemics of the 19th century. With the 14th century plague epidemic, the Europeans and their political and administrative representatives may well have realized for the very first time that contamination could be combatted by adopting a set of rational, scientific norms - although in practice such rules were mostly inspired by misguided scientific theories. Humankind was no longer alone. A new society was emerging, one that was not going to passively accept the more or less mysterious ways of a superior being of fate. The

  10. How heterogeneous susceptibility and recovery rates affect the spread of epidemics on networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei Gou

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, an extended heterogeneous SIR model is proposed, which generalizes the heterogeneous mean-field theory. Different from the traditional heterogeneous mean-field model only taking into account the heterogeneity of degree, our model considers not only the heterogeneity of degree but also the heterogeneity of susceptibility and recovery rates. Then, we analytically study the basic reproductive number and the final epidemic size. Combining with numerical simulations, it is found that the basic reproductive number depends on the mean of distributions of susceptibility and disease course when both of them are independent. If the mean of these two distributions is identical, increasing the variance of susceptibility may block the spread of epidemics, while the corresponding increase in the variance of disease course has little effect on the final epidemic size. It is also shown that positive correlations between individual susceptibility, course of disease and the square of degree make the population more vulnerable to epidemic and avail to the epidemic prevalence, whereas the negative correlations make the population less vulnerable and impede the epidemic prevalence. Keywords: Networks, Heterogeneity, Susceptibility, Recovery rates, Correlation, The basic reproductive number, The final epidemic size

  11. Efficient production of foot-and-mouth disease virus empty capsids in insect cells following down regulation of 3C protease activity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Porta, Claudine; Xu, Xiaodong; Loureiro, Silvia

    2013-01-01

    Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) is a significant economically and distributed globally pathogen of Artiodactyla. Current vaccines are chemically inactivated whole virus particles that require large-scale virus growth in strict bio-containment with the associated risks of accidental release or...

  12. Differential replication of Foot-and-mouth disease viruses in mice determine lethality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cacciabue, Marco; García-Núñez, María Soledad; Delgado, Fernando; Currá, Anabella; Marrero, Rubén; Molinari, Paula; Rieder, Elizabeth; Carrillo, Elisa; Gismondi, María Inés

    2017-09-01

    Adult C57BL/6J mice have been used to study Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) biology. In this work, two variants of an FMDV A/Arg/01 strain exhibiting differential pathogenicity in adult mice were identified and characterized: a non-lethal virus (A01NL) caused mild signs of disease, whereas a lethal virus (A01L) caused death within 24-48h independently of the dose used. Both viruses caused a systemic infection with pathological changes in the exocrine pancreas. Virus A01L reached higher viral loads in plasma and organs of inoculated mice as well as increased replication in an ovine kidney cell line. Complete consensus sequences revealed 6 non-synonymous changes between A01L and A10NL genomes that might be linked to replication differences, as suggested by in silico prediction studies. Our results highlight the biological significance of discrete genomic variations and reinforce the usefulness of this animal model to study viral determinants of lethality. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. Influence of Media on Seasonal Influenza Epidemic Curves.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saito, Satoshi; Saito, Norihiro; Itoga, Masamichi; Ozaki, Hiromi; Kimura, Toshiyuki; Okamura, Yuji; Murakami, Hiroshi; Kayaba, Hiroyuki

    2016-09-01

    Theoretical investigations predicting the epidemic curves of seasonal influenza have been demonstrated so far; however, there is little empirical research using ever accumulated epidemic curves. The effects of vaccine coverage and information distribution on influenza epidemics were evaluated. Four indices for epidemics (i.e., onset-peak duration, onset-end duration, ratio of the onset-peak duration to onset-end duration and steepness of epidemic curves) were defined, and the correlations between these indices and anti-flu drug prescription dose, vaccine coverage, the volume of media and search trend on influenza through internet were analyzed. Epidemiological data on seasonal influenza epidemics from 2002/2003 to 2013/2014 excluding 2009/2010 season were collected from National Institute of Infectious Diseases of Japan. The onset-peak duration and its ratio to onset-end duration correlated inversely with the volume of anti-flu drug prescription. Onset-peak duration correlated positively with media information volume on influenza. The steepness of the epidemic curve, and anti-flu drug prescription dose inversely correlated with the volume of media information. Pre-epidemic search trend and media volume on influenza correlated with the vaccine coverage in the season. Vaccine coverage had no strong effect on epidemic curve. Education through media has an effect on the epidemic curve of seasonal influenza. Copyright © 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  14. Antigenic heterogeneity of capsid protein VP1 in foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV serotype Asia1

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alam SM

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available SM Sabbir Alam,1 Ruhul Amin,1 Mohammed Ziaur Rahman,2 M Anwar Hossain,1 Munawar Sultana11Department of Microbiology, University of Dhaka, Dhaka, Bangladesh; 2International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Dhaka, BangladeshAbstract: Foot and mouth disease virus (FMDV, with its seven serotypes, is a highly contagious virus infecting mainly cloven-hoofed animals. The serotype Asia1 occurs mainly in Asian regions. An in-silico approach was taken to reveal the antigenic heterogeneities within the capsid protein VP1 of Asia1. A total of 47 VP1 sequences of Asia1 isolates from different countries of South Asian regions were selected, retrieved from database, and were aligned. The structure of VP1 protein was modeled using a homology modeling approach. Several antigenic sites were identified and mapped onto the three-dimensional protein structure. Variations at these antigenic sites were analyzed by calculating the protein variability index and finding mutation combinations. The data suggested that vaccine escape mutants have derived from only few mutations at several antigenic sites. Five antigenic peptides have been identified as the least variable epitopes, with just fewer amino acid substitutions. Only a limited number of serotype Asia1 antigenic variants were found to be circulated within the South Asian region. This emphasizes a possibility of formulating synthetic vaccines for controlling foot-and-mouth disease by Asia1 serotypes.Keywords: protein modeling, antigenic sites, sequence variation

  15. Estimating Coextinction Risks from Epidemic Tree Death: Affiliate Lichen Communities among Diseased Host Tree Populations of Fraxinus excelsior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jönsson, Mari T.; Thor, Göran

    2012-01-01

    At least 10% of the world’s tree species are threatened with extinction and pathogens are increasingly implicated in tree threats. Coextinction and threats to affiliates as a consequence of the loss or decline of their host trees is a poorly understood phenomenon. Ash dieback is an emerging infectious disease causing severe dieback of common ash Fraxinus excelsior throughout Europe. We utilized available empirical data on affiliate epiphytic lichen diversity (174 species and 17,800 observations) among 20 ash dieback infected host tree populations of F. excelsior on the island Gotland in the Baltic Sea, Sweden. From this, we used structured scenario projections scaled with empirical data of ash dieback disease to generate probabilistic models for estimating local and regional lichen coextinction risks. Average coextinction probabilities (Ā) were 0.38 (95% CI ±0.09) for lichens occurring on F. excelsior and 0.14 (95% CI ±0.03) when considering lichen persistence on all tree species. Ā was strongly linked to local disease incidence levels and generally increasing with lichen host specificity to F. excelsior and decreasing population size. Coextinctions reduced affiliate community viability, with significant local reductions in species richness and shifts in lichen species composition. Affiliates were projected to become locally extirpated before their hosts, illuminating the need to also consider host tree declines. Traditionally managed open wooded meadows had the highest incidence of ash dieback disease and significantly higher proportions of affiliate species projected to go extinct, compared with unmanaged closed forests and semi-open grazed sites. Most cothreatened species were not previously red-listed, which suggest that tree epidemics cause many unforeseen threats to species. Our analysis shows that epidemic tree deaths represent an insidious, mostly overlooked, threat to sessile affiliate communities in forested environments. Current conservation and

  16. The Foot-and-Mouth Disease Carrier State Divergence in Cattle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eschbaumer, Michael; Rekant, Steven I.; Pacheco, Juan M.; Smoliga, George R.; Hartwig, Ethan J.; Rodriguez, Luis L.

    2016-01-01

    ABSTRACT The pathogenesis of persistent foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) infection was investigated in 46 cattle that were either naive or had been vaccinated using a recombinant, adenovirus-vectored vaccine 2 weeks before challenge. The prevalence of FMDV persistence was similar in both groups (62% in vaccinated cattle, 67% in nonvaccinated cattle), despite vaccinated cattle having been protected from clinical disease. Analysis of antemortem infection dynamics demonstrated that the subclinical divergence between FMDV carriers and animals that cleared the infection had occurred by 10 days postinfection (dpi) in vaccinated cattle and by 21 dpi in nonvaccinated animals. The anatomic distribution of virus in subclinically infected, vaccinated cattle was restricted to the pharynx throughout both the early and the persistent phases of infection. In nonvaccinated cattle, systemically disseminated virus was cleared from peripheral sites by 10 dpi, while virus selectively persisted within the nasopharynx of a subset of animals. The quantities of viral RNA shed in oropharyngeal fluid during FMDV persistence were similar in vaccinated and nonvaccinated cattle. FMDV structural and nonstructural proteins were localized to follicle-associated epithelium of the dorsal soft palate and dorsal nasopharynx in persistently infected cattle. Host transcriptome analysis of tissue samples processed by laser capture microdissection indicated suppression of antiviral host factors (interferon regulatory factor 7, CXCL10 [gamma interferon-inducible protein 10], gamma interferon, and lambda interferon) in association with persistent FMDV. In contrast, during the transitional phase of infection, the level of expression of IFN-λ mRNA was higher in follicle-associated epithelium of animals that had cleared the infection. This work provides novel insights into the intricate mechanisms of FMDV persistence and contributes to further understanding of this critical aspect of FMDV pathogenesis

  17. Improving the Efficacy of Conventional Therapy by Adding Andrographolide Sulfonate in the Treatment of Severe Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease: A Randomized Controlled Trial

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiuhui Li

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Herb-derived compound andrographolide sulfonate (called Xiyanping injection recommended control measure for severe hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD by the Ministry of Health (China during the 2010 epidemic. However, there is a lack of good quality evidence directly comparing the efficacy of Andrographolide Sulfonate combination therapy with conventional therapy. Methods. 230 patients were randomly assigned to 7–10 days of Andrographolide Sulfonate 5–10 mg/Kg/day and conventional therapy, or conventional therapy alone. Results. The major complications occurred less often after Andrographolide Sulfonate (2.6% versus 12.1%; risk difference [RD], 0.94; 95% CI, 0.28–1.61; P=0.006. Median fever clearance times were 96 hours (CI, 80 to 126 for conventional therapy recipients and 48 hours (CI, 36 to 54 for Andrographolide Sulfonate combination-treated patients (χ2=16.57, P<0.001. The two groups did not differ in terms of HFMD-cause mortality (P=1.00 and duration of hospitalization (P=0.70. There was one death in conventional therapy group. No important adverse event was found in Andrographolide Sulfonate combination therapy group. Conclusions. The addition of Andrographolide Sulfonate to conventional therapy reduced the occurrence of major complications, fever clearance time, and the healing time of typical skin or oral mucosa lesions in children with severe HFMD.

  18. Enterovirus co-infections and onychomadesis after hand, foot, and mouth disease, Spain, 2008.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bracho, Maria A; González-Candelas, Fernando; Valero, Ana; Córdoba, Juan; Salazar, Antonio

    2011-12-01

    Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD), a common disease caused by enteroviruses (EVs), usually affects children. Clustered and sporadic HFMD cases, followed by onychomadesis (nail shedding), occurred during summer and fall 2008 in Valencia, Spain. Fecal samples from onychomadesis patients, who did or did not have previous HFMD, and from healthy children exposed to onychomadesis patients tested positive for EV. The complete viral protein 1 capsid gene sequence was obtained for typing and phylogenetic analysis. Two EV serotypes, coxsackievirus A10 and coxsackievirus B1 (CVB1), were mainly detected as a monoinfection or co-infection in a childcare center where an onychomadesis outbreak occurred. On the basis of our results, and detection of CVB1 in 2 other contemporary onychomadesis outbreaks in childcare centers in Spain, we propose that mixed infection of an EV serotype that causes HFMD, plus the serotype CVB1, could explain the emergence after HFMD of onychomadesis, a rare and late complication.

  19. Clinical study of foot and mouth disease in feedlot calves in Mosul region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. A. Abd- Alhameed

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The affected calves showed clinical signs including presence of vesicles at the bucal cavity and hoof (90.7%, fever (36%, salivation (32.9%, depression (20.5%, Anorexia (19.6%, loss of body weight (7.94%, lamness (15.9%, lesions at the muzzle (15.3%, presence of the lesions at the feet (6.0%, prostration (4.7%, diarrhea (3.3%, presence of the lesion at the mouth cavity (3.0%, paralysis of hind quarters (2.2% and sudden death (1.6%. There was significant increase in the rectal temperature, respiration rates, and heart rates in the infected animals compared with control group. Recovered animals appeared some diseases including theileriosis (40.4%, tympany (22.8%, pneumonia (19.9%, foot abscess (14.7%, and babesiosis (2.2 %. The mortality rate varied between 3.4% to 27.9% in different herds and the mean was 3.3 % in all herds. There was significant relationship between age of animals and the incidence of the disease.

  20. Mouth ulcers

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Gingivostomatitis Herpes simplex ( fever blister ) Leukoplakia Oral cancer Oral lichen planus Oral thrush A skin sore caused by histoplasmosis may ... mouth Images Oral thrush Canker sore (aphthous ulcer) Lichen planus on the oral mucosa Mouth sores References Daniels TE, Jordan RC. ...

  1. Meta-analysis on the efficacy of foot-and-mouth disease emergency vaccination

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hisham Beshara Halasa, Tariq; Boklund, Anette; Cox, S.

    2012-01-01

    The objectives of this study were to provide a summary quantification of the efficacy of FMD emergency vaccination based on a systematic review and a meta-analysis of available literature, and to further discuss the suitability of this review and meta-analysis to summarize and further interpret...... of clinical signs including FMD lesions and fever, while the virological protection parameter was estimated based on the outcome of laboratory tests that were used to diagnose FMD infection. A meta-analysis relative risk was calculated per protection parameter. Results of the meta-analyses were examined using...... vaccine. Fortunately, no significant bias that would alter the conclusions was encountered in the analysis. Meta-analysis showed to be a useful tool to summarize literature results from a systematic review of the efficacy of foot and mouth disease emergency vaccination....

  2. Oral and Anal vaccination against enteric red mouth disease protection against yersiniosis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Neumann, Lukas; Villumsen, Kasper Rømer; Kragelund Strøm, Helene

    dose of ERM bacterin fully protected rainbow trout when they are vaccinated anally. Oral vaccination can also induce full protection but the dose of the bacterin has to be 100 times higher than if the fish was to be vaccinated anally. This indicates that much of the oral feed bacteria is digested...... in the stomach of rainbow trout. This work has shown that it is possible to vaccinated orally against ERM, but the bacteria has to be coated in order to avoid digestion. Protection mechanisms will be discussed....... fish. The objective for this project is to investigate whether oral and anal vaccination of rainbow trout against Yersinia ruckeri O1 (biotype 1) causing Enteric Red Mouth disease (ERM) can protect rainbow trout against a subsequent experimental bath challenge.The rainbow trout were given oral...

  3. Quantification of transmission of foot-and-mouth disease virus caused by an environment contaminated with secretions and excretions from infected calves

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bravo De Rueda, C.; Jong, de M.; Eblé, P.L.; Dekker, A.

    2015-01-01

    Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) infected animals can contaminate the environment with their secretions and excretions. To quantify the contribution of a contaminated environment to the transmission of FMDV, this study used calves that were not vaccinated and calves that were vaccinated 1 week

  4. Modeling and Analysis of Epidemic Diffusion within Small-World Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ming Liu

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available To depict the rule of epidemic diffusion, two different models, the Susceptible-Exposure-Infected-Recovered-Susceptible (SEIRS model and the Susceptible-Exposure-Infected-Quarantine-Recovered-Susceptible (SEIQRS model, are proposed and analyzed within small-world network in this paper. Firstly, the epidemic diffusion models are constructed with mean-filed theory, and condition for the occurrence of disease diffusion is explored. Then, the existence and global stability of the disease-free equilibrium and the endemic equilibrium for these two complex epidemic systems are proved by differential equations knowledge and Routh-Hurwiz theory. At last, a numerical example which includes key parameters analysis and critical topic discussion is presented to test how well the proposed two models may be applied in practice. These works may provide some guidelines for decision makers when coping with epidemic diffusion controlling problems.

  5. Could the Recent Zika Epidemic Have Been Predicted?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vecchi, G. A.; Munoz, A. G.; Thomson, M. C.; Stewart-Ibarra, A. M.; Chourio, X.; Nájera, P.; Moran, Z.; Yang, X.

    2017-12-01

    Given knowledge at the time, the recent 2015-2016 zika virus (ZIKV) epidemic probably could not have been predicted. Without the prior knowledge of ZIKV being already present in South America, and given the lack of understanding of key epidemiologic processes and long-term records of ZIKV cases in the continent, the best related prediction could be carried out for the potential risk of a generic Aedes-borne disease epidemic. Here we use a recently published two-vector basic reproduction number model to assess the predictability of the conditions conducive to epidemics of diseases like zika, chikungunya, or dengue, transmitted by the independent or concurrent presence of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. We compare the potential risk of transmission forcing the model with the observed climate and with state-of-the-art operational forecasts from the North American Multi Model Ensemble (NMME), finding that the predictive skill of this new seasonal forecast system is highest for multiple countries in Latin America and the Caribbean during the December-February and March-May seasons, and slightly lower—but still of potential use to decision-makers—for the rest of the year. In particular, we find that above-normal suitable conditions for the occurrence of the zika epidemic at the beginning of 2015 could have been successfully predicted at least 1 month in advance for several zika hotspots, and in particular for Northeast Brazil: the heart of the epidemic. Nonetheless, the initiation and spread of an epidemic depends on the effect of multiple factors beyond climate conditions, and thus this type of approach must be considered as a guide and not as a formal predictive tool of vector-borne epidemics.

  6. Genetic stability of foot-and-mouth disease virus during long-term infections in natural hosts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramirez-Carvajal, Lisbeth; Pauszek, Steven J; Ahmed, Zaheer; Farooq, Umer; Naeem, Khalid; Shabman, Reed S; Stockwell, Timothy B; Rodriguez, Luis L

    2018-01-01

    Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a severe infection caused by a picornavirus that affects livestock and wildlife. Persistence in ruminants is a well-documented feature of Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) pathogenesis and a major concern for disease control. Persistently infected animals harbor virus for extended periods, providing a unique opportunity to study within-host virus evolution. This study investigated the genetic dynamics of FMDV during persistent infections of naturally infected Asian buffalo. Using next-generation sequencing (NGS) we obtained 21 near complete FMDV genome sequences from 12 sub-clinically infected buffalo over a period of one year. Four animals yielded only one virus isolate and one yielded two isolates of different serotype suggesting a serial infection. Seven persistently infected animals yielded more than one virus of the same serotype showing a long-term intra-host viral genetic divergence at the consensus level of less than 2.5%. Quasi-species analysis showed few nucleotide variants and non-synonymous substitutions of progeny virus despite intra-host persistence of up to 152 days. Phylogenetic analyses of serotype Asia-1 VP1 sequences clustered all viruses from persistent animals with Group VII viruses circulating in Pakistan in 2011, but distinct from those circulating on 2008-2009. Furthermore, signature amino acid (aa) substitutions were found in the antigenically relevant VP1 of persistent viruses compared with viruses from 2008-2009. Intra-host purifying selective pressure was observed, with few codons in structural proteins undergoing positive selection. However, FMD persistent viruses did not show a clear pattern of antigenic selection. Our findings provide insight into the evolutionary dynamics of FMDV populations within naturally occurring subclinical and persistent infections that may have implications to vaccination strategies in the region.

  7. Genetic stability of foot-and-mouth disease virus during long-term infections in natural hosts.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lisbeth Ramirez-Carvajal

    Full Text Available Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD is a severe infection caused by a picornavirus that affects livestock and wildlife. Persistence in ruminants is a well-documented feature of Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV pathogenesis and a major concern for disease control. Persistently infected animals harbor virus for extended periods, providing a unique opportunity to study within-host virus evolution. This study investigated the genetic dynamics of FMDV during persistent infections of naturally infected Asian buffalo. Using next-generation sequencing (NGS we obtained 21 near complete FMDV genome sequences from 12 sub-clinically infected buffalo over a period of one year. Four animals yielded only one virus isolate and one yielded two isolates of different serotype suggesting a serial infection. Seven persistently infected animals yielded more than one virus of the same serotype showing a long-term intra-host viral genetic divergence at the consensus level of less than 2.5%. Quasi-species analysis showed few nucleotide variants and non-synonymous substitutions of progeny virus despite intra-host persistence of up to 152 days. Phylogenetic analyses of serotype Asia-1 VP1 sequences clustered all viruses from persistent animals with Group VII viruses circulating in Pakistan in 2011, but distinct from those circulating on 2008-2009. Furthermore, signature amino acid (aa substitutions were found in the antigenically relevant VP1 of persistent viruses compared with viruses from 2008-2009. Intra-host purifying selective pressure was observed, with few codons in structural proteins undergoing positive selection. However, FMD persistent viruses did not show a clear pattern of antigenic selection. Our findings provide insight into the evolutionary dynamics of FMDV populations within naturally occurring subclinical and persistent infections that may have implications to vaccination strategies in the region.

  8. Dromedaries (Camelus dromedarius) are of Low Susceptibility to Inoculation with Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus Serotype O

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Alexandersen, Søren; Wernery, U.; Nagy, P.

    2008-01-01

    Two sheep and five dromedaries were inoculated with a highdose of a cattle-passaged type O strain of foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV). The sheep developed typical FMD. The inoculated camels, which were placed in contact with five further dromedaries and four sheep, showed no visible sign......,,; of illness or vesicular lesions. However, one of them had a raised body temperature at 3 days post-inoculation (pi) and a viraemia from days 2 to 10; probang samples from this animal were negative for infections virus, but a low level of FMDV RNA was detected in a sample taken on day 6 pi, five other samples...... taken front days 3 to 28 being negative. Examination of mouth swabs indicated a low level of FMDV RNA at days 1-5 pi in four of the five inoculated camels, but no infectious FMDN7 or FMDV RNA was detected in serum, probang or month swab samples front contact-exposed animals (camels and sheep). All...

  9. Association of Drought with Typhus Epidemics in Central Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Acuna-Soto, R.; Stahle, D.; Villanueva Diaz, J.; Therrell, M.

    2007-05-01

    Typhus is an acute infectious disease caused by the bacteria Rickettsia prowazekii, which is transmitted among humans by the body lice (Pediculus humanus corporis). The disease is highly contagious and transmission is favored in populations living in crowded conditions. Under these circumstances, typhus transmission is facilitated by factors that favor the colonization and proliferation of body lice such as absence of personal hygiene and wearing the same clothes for long periods of time. Historically, periods of war and famine were associated with devastating epidemics with high mortality rates in many parts of the world. Central Mexico has a long record of typhus epidemics. In this region, at > 2000 meters above sea level, the disease was endemic and occurred with a seasonal pattern in winter, with occasional large epidemics. Recently, we completed a chronology of epidemics in Mexico. A total of 22 well-defined major typhus epidemics were identified between 1650 and 1920. All of them caused periods of increased mortality that lasted 2 - 4 years (more than one standard deviation from the previous ten year period). The record of typhus epidemics was evaluated against the tree-ring record of Cuauhtmoc La Fragua, Puebla. This chronology, based on Douglas fir, has demonstrated to be a faithful record of precipitation in central Mexico. The results indicate that a statistically significant drought (t test, p first year of all 22 large outbreaks of typhus in recent Mexican history. No distinction is made between times of peace and war. This indicates that drought alone was capable of inducing the social conditions for increased transmission of typhus in pre-industrial central Mexico.

  10. Foot-and-mouth disease virus, but not bovine enterovirus, targets the host cell cytoskeleton, via the non-structural protein 3Cpro

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Armer, Hannah; Moffat, Katy; Wileman, Thomas

    2008-01-01

    Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV), a member of the Picornaviridae, is a pathogen of cloven-hoofed animals and causes a disease of major economic importance. Picornavirus-infected cells show changes in cell morphology and rearrangement of cytoplasmic membranes, which are a consequence of virus r....... In contrast, infection of cells with another picornavirus, bovine enterovirus, did not affect -tubulin distribution, and the microtubule network remained relatively unaffected....

  11. Limited Mouth Opening Secondary to Diffuse Systemic Sclerosis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomoko Wada

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Systemic sclerosis (SSc is a relatively rare condition with an immunologically mediated pathogenesis. For reasons that are not clearly understood, dense collagen is deposited in the connective tissues of the body in extraordinary amounts. Although its dramatic effects are seen in association with the skin, the disease is often quite serious with visceral organ involvement. We describe a case of limited mouth opening secondary to diffuse SSc, improvement in mouth opening with passive jaw stretch exercises, and the challenges involved in performing dental procedures for such patients.

  12. Incorporation of the ELISA technique to determine antibody levels against foot-and-mouth disease

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vergara, N.N.; Caballero, P.H.; Santiago Gonzalez Patino, S.; Orue, P.M.

    1998-01-01

    Two groups of sera were evaluated by a liquid phase blocking ELISA (LPBE) for the detection and quantification of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) antibodies to serotypes O, A and C to assess the sensitivity and specificity of the assay. The first group consisted of 120 sera from non-infected and non-vaccinated cattle, which were tested by a screening assay at a fix dilution of 1/32. The second group consisted of 120 sera from cattle vaccinated with a trivalent (O, A and C) vaccine. Sera from this group were titrated in a five fold dilution range: 1/10, 1/50, 1/250 and 1/1250. (author)

  13. Analysis of Recent Serotype O Foot‐and‐Mouth Disease Viruses from Livestock in Kenya: Evidence of Four Independently Evolving Lineages

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wekesa, S. N.; Muwanika, V. B.; Siegismund, H. R.

    2015-01-01

    Foot‐and‐mouth disease (FMD) is endemic in Kenya where four serotypes (O, A, SAT 1 and SAT 2) of the virus are currently in circulation. Within 2010 and 2011, the National Laboratory recorded an increase in the number of FMD outbreaks caused by serotype O virus. The characteristics of these virus...

  14. Unsynchronized influenza epidemics in two neighboring subtropical cities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiujuan Tang

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Objective: The aim of this study was to examine the synchrony of influenza epidemics between Hong Kong and Shenzhen, two neighboring subtropical cities in South China. Methods: Laboratory-confirmed influenza data for the period January 2006 to December 2016 were obtained from the Shenzhen Center for Disease Control and Prevention and the Department of Health in Hong Kong. The population data were retrieved from the 2011 population censuses. The weekly rates of laboratory-confirmed influenza cases were compared between Shenzhen and Hong Kong. Results: Unsynchronized influenza epidemics between Hong Kong and Shenzhen were frequently observed during the study period. Influenza A/H1N1 caused a more severe pandemic in Hong Kong in 2009, but the subsequent seasonal epidemics showed similar magnitudes in both cities. Two influenza A/H3N2 dominant epidemic waves were seen in Hong Kong in 2015, but these epidemics were very minor in Shenzhen. More influenza B epidemics occurred in Shenzhen than in Hong Kong. Conclusions: Influenza epidemics appeared to be unsynchronized between Hong Kong and Shenzhen most of the time. Given the close geographical locations of these two cities, this could be due to the strikingly different age structures of their populations. Keywords: Influenza epidemics, Synchrony, Shenzhen, Hong Kong

  15. Comparative evaluation of six ELISAs for the detection of antibodies to the non-structural proteins of foot-and-mouth disease virus

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brocchi, E.; Bergmann, I.E.; Dekker, A.

    2006-01-01

    To validate the use of serology in substantiating freedom from infection after foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) outbreaks have been controlled by measures that include vaccination, 3551 sera were tested with six assays that detect antibodies to the non-structural proteins of FMD virus. The sera came...

  16. Word of Mouth Marketing in Mouth and Dental Health Centers towards Consumers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aykut Ekiyor

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Influencing the shopping style of others by passing on the experiences of goods purchased or services received is a way of behavior that has its roots in history. The main objective of th is research is to analyze the effects of demographic factors within the scope of word of mouth marketing on the choices of mouth and dental health services. Consumers receiving service from mouth and dental health centers of the Turkish Republic Ministry o f Health constitute the environment of the research. The research conducted in order to determine the mouth and dental health center selection of consumers within the scope of word of mouth marketing. The research has been conducted in Ankara through simpl e random sampling. The sample size has been determined as 400. In terms of word of mouth marketing which has been determined as the third hypothesis of the study, as a result of the analysis of the statistical relationship between mouth and dental health c enter preference and demographic factor groups, it has been determined that there is a meaningful difference in terms of age, level of education, level of income and some dimensions of marital status and that no meaningful difference has been found in term s of gender. It has been attempted to determine the importance of word of mouth marketing in healthcare services

  17. Planning horizon affects prophylactic decision-making and epidemic dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nardin, Luis G; Miller, Craig R; Ridenhour, Benjamin J; Krone, Stephen M; Joyce, Paul; Baumgaertner, Bert O

    2016-01-01

    The spread of infectious diseases can be impacted by human behavior, and behavioral decisions often depend implicitly on a planning horizon-the time in the future over which options are weighed. We investigate the effects of planning horizons on epidemic dynamics. We developed an epidemiological agent-based model (along with an ODE analog) to explore the decision-making of self-interested individuals on adopting prophylactic behavior. The decision-making process incorporates prophylaxis efficacy and disease prevalence with the individuals' payoffs and planning horizon. Our results show that for short and long planning horizons individuals do not consider engaging in prophylactic behavior. In contrast, individuals adopt prophylactic behavior when considering intermediate planning horizons. Such adoption, however, is not always monotonically associated with the prevalence of the disease, depending on the perceived protection efficacy and the disease parameters. Adoption of prophylactic behavior reduces the epidemic peak size while prolonging the epidemic and potentially generates secondary waves of infection. These effects can be made stronger by increasing the behavioral decision frequency or distorting an individual's perceived risk of infection.

  18. Epidemic spreading and immunization strategy in multiplex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alvarez Zuzek, Lucila G.; Buono, Camila; Braunstein, Lidia A.

    2015-09-01

    A more connected world has brought major consequences such as facilitate the spread of diseases all over the world to quickly become epidemics, reason why researchers are concentrated in modeling the propagation of epidemics and outbreaks in multilayer networks. In this networks all nodes interact in different layers with different type of links. However, in many scenarios such as in the society, a multiplex network framework is not completely suitable since not all individuals participate in all layers. In this paper, we use a partially overlapped, multiplex network where only a fraction of the individuals are shared by the layers. We develop a mitigation strategy for stopping a disease propagation, considering the Susceptible-Infected- Recover model, in a system consisted by two layers. We consider a random immunization in one of the layers and study the effect of the overlapping fraction in both, the propagation of the disease and the immunization strategy. Using branching theory, we study this scenario theoretically and via simulations and find a lower epidemic threshold than in the case without strategy.

  19. Epidemic spreading on adaptively weighted scale-free networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Mengfeng; Zhang, Haifeng; Kang, Huiyan; Zhu, Guanghu; Fu, Xinchu

    2017-04-01

    We introduce three modified SIS models on scale-free networks that take into account variable population size, nonlinear infectivity, adaptive weights, behavior inertia and time delay, so as to better characterize the actual spread of epidemics. We develop new mathematical methods and techniques to study the dynamics of the models, including the basic reproduction number, and the global asymptotic stability of the disease-free and endemic equilibria. We show the disease-free equilibrium cannot undergo a Hopf bifurcation. We further analyze the effects of local information of diseases and various immunization schemes on epidemic dynamics. We also perform some stochastic network simulations which yield quantitative agreement with the deterministic mean-field approach.

  20. Monitoring linked epidemics: the case of tuberculosis and HIV.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    María S Sánchez

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The tight epidemiological coupling between HIV and its associated opportunistic infections leads to challenges and opportunities for disease surveillance. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We review efforts of WHO and collaborating agencies to track and fight the TB/HIV co-epidemic, and discuss modeling--via mathematical, statistical, and computational approaches--as a means to identify disease indicators designed to integrate data from linked diseases in order to characterize how co-epidemics change in time and space. We present R(TB/HIV, an index comparing changes in TB incidence relative to HIV prevalence, and use it to identify those sub-Saharan African countries with outlier TB/HIV dynamics. R(TB/HIV can also be used to predict epidemiological trends, investigate the coherency of reported trends, and cross-check the anticipated impact of public health interventions. Identifying the cause(s responsible for anomalous R(TB/HIV values can reveal information crucial to the management of public health. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: We frame our suggestions for integrating and analyzing co-epidemic data within the context of global disease monitoring. Used routinely, joint disease indicators such as R(TB/HIV could greatly enhance the monitoring and evaluation of public health programs.

  1. Travelling Wave Solutions in Multigroup Age-Structured Epidemic Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ducrot, Arnaut; Magal, Pierre; Ruan, Shigui

    2010-01-01

    Age-structured epidemic models have been used to describe either the age of individuals or the age of infection of certain diseases and to determine how these characteristics affect the outcomes and consequences of epidemiological processes. Most results on age-structured epidemic models focus on the existence, uniqueness, and convergence to disease equilibria of solutions. In this paper we investigate the existence of travelling wave solutions in a deterministic age-structured model describing the circulation of a disease within a population of multigroups. Individuals of each group are able to move with a random walk which is modelled by the classical Fickian diffusion and are classified into two subclasses, susceptible and infective. A susceptible individual in a given group can be crisscross infected by direct contact with infective individuals of possibly any group. This process of transmission can depend upon the age of the disease of infected individuals. The goal of this paper is to provide sufficient conditions that ensure the existence of travelling wave solutions for the age-structured epidemic model. The case of two population groups is numerically investigated which applies to the crisscross transmission of feline immunodeficiency virus (FIV) and some sexual transmission diseases.

  2. Susceptible-infected-recovered epidemics in random networks with population awareness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Qingchu; Chen, Shufang

    2017-10-01

    The influence of epidemic information-based awareness on the spread of infectious diseases on networks cannot be ignored. Within the effective degree modeling framework, we discuss the susceptible-infected-recovered model in complex networks with general awareness and general degree distribution. By performing the linear stability analysis, the conditions of epidemic outbreak can be deduced and the results of the previous research can be further expanded. Results show that the local awareness can suppress significantly the epidemic spreading on complex networks via raising the epidemic threshold and such effects are closely related to the formulation of awareness functions. In addition, our results suggest that the recovered information-based awareness has no effect on the critical condition of epidemic outbreak.

  3. The cholera epidemic in South Africa, 1980 - 1987 Epidemiological ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    During the cholera epidemic in South Africa, 1980-1987, 25251 cases of cholera were bacteriologically proven. The case-fatality rate was 1,4%. Outbreaks occurred in the summer rainfall season. Age-specific aUack rates followed the pattern typically found during the 'epidemic phase' of the disease in most years. The vast ...

  4. Could the Recent Zika Epidemic Have Been Predicted?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ángel G. Muñoz

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Given knowledge at the time, the recent 2015–2016 zika virus (ZIKV epidemic probably could not have been predicted. Without the prior knowledge of ZIKV being already present in South America, and given the lack of understanding of key epidemiologic processes and long-term records of ZIKV cases in the continent, the best related prediction could be carried out for the potential risk of a generic Aedes-borne disease epidemic. Here we use a recently published two-vector basic reproduction number model to assess the predictability of the conditions conducive to epidemics of diseases like zika, chikungunya, or dengue, transmitted by the independent or concurrent presence of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. We compare the potential risk of transmission forcing the model with the observed climate and with state-of-the-art operational forecasts from the North American Multi Model Ensemble (NMME, finding that the predictive skill of this new seasonal forecast system is highest for multiple countries in Latin America and the Caribbean during the December-February and March-May seasons, and slightly lower—but still of potential use to decision-makers—for the rest of the year. In particular, we find that above-normal suitable conditions for the occurrence of the zika epidemic at the beginning of 2015 could have been successfully predicted at least 1 month in advance for several zika hotspots, and in particular for Northeast Brazil: the heart of the epidemic. Nonetheless, the initiation and spread of an epidemic depends on the effect of multiple factors beyond climate conditions, and thus this type of approach must be considered as a guide and not as a formal predictive tool of vector-borne epidemics.

  5. Mechanistic movement models to understand epidemic spread.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fofana, Abdou Moutalab; Hurford, Amy

    2017-05-05

    An overlooked aspect of disease ecology is considering how and why animals come into contact with one and other resulting in disease transmission. Mathematical models of disease spread frequently assume mass-action transmission, justified by stating that susceptible and infectious hosts mix readily, and foregoing any detailed description of host movement. Numerous recent studies have recorded, analysed and modelled animal movement. These movement models describe how animals move with respect to resources, conspecifics and previous movement directions and have been used to understand the conditions for the occurrence and the spread of infectious diseases when hosts perform a type of movement. Here, we summarize the effect of the different types of movement on the threshold conditions for disease spread. We identify gaps in the literature and suggest several promising directions for future research. The mechanistic inclusion of movement in epidemic models may be beneficial for the following two reasons. Firstly, the estimation of the transmission coefficient in an epidemic model is possible because animal movement data can be used to estimate the rate of contacts between conspecifics. Secondly, unsuccessful transmission events, where a susceptible host contacts an infectious host but does not become infected can be quantified. Following an outbreak, this enables disease ecologists to identify 'near misses' and to explore possible alternative epidemic outcomes given shifts in ecological or immunological parameters.This article is part of the themed issue 'Opening the black box: re-examining the ecology and evolution of parasite transmission'. © 2017 The Author(s).

  6. Diagnostic evaluation of a multiplexed RT-PCR microsphere array assay for the detection of foot-and-mouth disease virus and look-alike disease viruses

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hindson, B J; Reid, S M; Baker, B R; Ebert, K; Ferris, N P; Bentley Tammero, L F; Lenhoff, R J; Naraghi-Arani, P; Vitalis, E A; Slezak, T R; Hullinger, P J; King, D P

    2007-07-26

    A high-throughput multiplexed assay was developed for the differential laboratory diagnosis of foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) from viruses which cause clinically similar diseases of livestock. This assay simultaneously screens for five RNA and two DNA viruses using multiplexed reverse transcription PCR (mRT-PCR) amplification coupled with a microsphere hybridization array and flow-cytometric detection. Two of the seventeen primer-probe sets included in this multiplex assay were adopted from previously characterized real-time RT-PCR (rRT-PCR) assays for FMDV. The diagnostic accuracy of the mRT-PCR was evaluated using 287 field samples, including 248 (true positive n= 213, true negative n=34) from suspect cases of foot-and-mouth disease collected from 65 countries between 1965 and 2006 and 39 true negative samples collected from healthy animals. The mRT-PCR assay results were compared with two singleplex rRT-PCR assays, using virus isolation with antigen-ELISA as the reference method. The diagnostic sensitivity of the mRT-PCR assay for FMDV was 93.9% [95% C.I. 89.8-96.4%], compared to 98.1% [95% C.I. 95.3-99.3%] for the two singleplex rRT-PCR assays used in combination. In addition, the assay could reliably differentiate between FMDV and other vesicular viruses such as swine vesicular disease virus and vesicular exanthema of swine virus. Interestingly, the mRT-PCR detected parapoxvirus (n=2) and bovine viral diarrhea virus (n=2) in clinical samples, demonstrating the screening potential of this mRT-PCR assay to identify viruses in FMDV-negative material not previously recognized using focused single-target rRT-PCR assays.

  7. Foot-and-Mouth Disease (FMD) Virus 3C Protease Mutant L127P: Implications for FMD Vaccine Development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Puckette, Michael; Clark, Benjamin A; Smith, Justin D; Turecek, Traci; Martel, Erica; Gabbert, Lindsay; Pisano, Melia; Hurtle, William; Pacheco, Juan M; Barrera, José; Neilan, John G; Rasmussen, Max

    2017-11-15

    The foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) afflicts livestock in more than 80 countries, limiting food production and global trade. Production of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) vaccines requires cytosolic expression of the FMDV 3C protease to cleave the P1 polyprotein into mature capsid proteins, but the FMDV 3C protease is toxic to host cells. To identify less-toxic isoforms of the FMDV 3C protease, we screened 3C mutants for increased transgene output in comparison to wild-type 3C using a Gaussia luciferase reporter system. The novel point mutation 3C(L127P) increased yields of recombinant FMDV subunit proteins in mammalian and bacterial cells expressing P1-3C transgenes and retained the ability to process P1 polyproteins from multiple FMDV serotypes. The 3C(L127P) mutant produced crystalline arrays of FMDV-like particles in mammalian and bacterial cells, potentially providing a practical method of rapid, inexpensive FMD vaccine production in bacteria. IMPORTANCE The mutant FMDV 3C protease L127P significantly increased yields of recombinant FMDV subunit antigens and produced virus-like particles in mammalian and bacterial cells. The L127P mutation represents a novel advancement for economical FMD vaccine production. Copyright © 2017 Puckette et al.

  8. Coxsackievirus A6 and enterovirus 71 causing hand, foot and mouth disease in Cuba, 2011-2013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fonseca, Magilé C; Sarmiento, Luis; Resik, Sonia; Martínez, Yenisleidys; Hung, Lai Heng; Morier, Luis; Piñón, Alexander; Valdéz, Odalys; Kourí, Vivian; González, Guelsys

    2014-09-01

    Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is usually caused by coxsackievirus A16 or enterovirus 71 (EV71). Between 2011 and 2013, HFMD cases were reported from different Cuban provinces. A total of 42 clinical specimens were obtained from 23 patients. Detection, identification and phylogenetic analysis of enterovirus-associated HFMD were carried out by virus isolation, specific enterovirus PCR and partial VP1 sequences. HEV was detected in 11 HFMD cases. Emerging genetic variants of coxsackievirus A6 and EV71 were identified as the causative agents of the Cuban HFMD cases.

  9. Epidemic disease decimates amphibian abundance, species diversity, and evolutionary history in the highlands of central Panama

    OpenAIRE

    Crawford, Andrew J.; Lips, Karen R.; Bermingham, Eldredge

    2010-01-01

    Amphibian populations around the world are experiencing unprecedented declines attributed to a chytrid fungal pathogen, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis. Despite the severity of the crisis, quantitative analyses of the effects of the epidemic on amphibian abundance and diversity have been unavailable as a result of the lack of equivalent data collected before and following disease outbreak. We present a community-level assessment combining long-term field surveys and DNA barcode data describing...

  10. Temporal prediction of epidemic patterns in community networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peng, Xiao-Long; Xu, Xin-Jian; Fu, Xinchu; Small, Michael

    2013-01-01

    Most previous studies of epidemic dynamics on complex networks suppose that the disease will eventually stabilize at either a disease-free state or an endemic one. In reality, however, some epidemics always exhibit sporadic and recurrent behaviour in one region because of the invasion from an endemic population elsewhere. In this paper we address this issue and study a susceptible–infected–susceptible epidemiological model on a network consisting of two communities, where the disease is endemic in one community but alternates between outbreaks and extinctions in the other. We provide a detailed characterization of the temporal dynamics of epidemic patterns in the latter community. In particular, we investigate the time duration of both outbreak and extinction, and the time interval between two consecutive inter-community infections, as well as their frequency distributions. Based on the mean-field theory, we theoretically analyse these three timescales and their dependence on the average node degree of each community, the transmission parameters and the number of inter-community links, which are in good agreement with simulations, except when the probability of overlaps between successive outbreaks is too large. These findings aid us in better understanding the bursty nature of disease spreading in a local community, and thereby suggesting effective time-dependent control strategies. (paper)

  11. Environmental Factors Influencing Epidemic Cholera

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jutla, Antarpreet; Whitcombe, Elizabeth; Hasan, Nur; Haley, Bradd; Akanda, Ali; Huq, Anwar; Alam, Munir; Sack, R. Bradley; Colwell, Rita

    2013-01-01

    Cholera outbreak following the earthquake of 2010 in Haiti has reaffirmed that the disease is a major public health threat. Vibrio cholerae is autochthonous to aquatic environment, hence, it cannot be eradicated but hydroclimatology-based prediction and prevention is an achievable goal. Using data from the 1800s, we describe uniqueness in seasonality and mechanism of occurrence of cholera in the epidemic regions of Asia and Latin America. Epidemic regions are located near regional rivers and are characterized by sporadic outbreaks, which are likely to be initiated during episodes of prevailing warm air temperature with low river flows, creating favorable environmental conditions for growth of cholera bacteria. Heavy rainfall, through inundation or breakdown of sanitary infrastructure, accelerates interaction between contaminated water and human activities, resulting in an epidemic. This causal mechanism is markedly different from endemic cholera where tidal intrusion of seawater carrying bacteria from estuary to inland regions, results in outbreaks. PMID:23897993

  12. Community Size Effects on Epidemic Spreading in Multiplex Social Networks

    OpenAIRE

    Liu, Ting; Li, Ping; Chen, Yan; Zhang, Jie

    2016-01-01

    The dynamical process of epidemic spreading has drawn much attention of the complex network community. In the network paradigm, diseases spread from one person to another through the social ties amongst the population. There are a variety of factors that govern the processes of disease spreading on the networks. A common but not negligible factor is people's reaction to the outbreak of epidemics. Such reaction can be related information dissemination or self-protection. In this work, we explo...

  13. Large-scale application of highly-diluted bacteria for Leptospirosis epidemic control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bracho, Gustavo; Varela, Enrique; Fernández, Rolando; Ordaz, Barbara; Marzoa, Natalia; Menéndez, Jorge; García, Luis; Gilling, Esperanza; Leyva, Richard; Rufín, Reynaldo; de la Torre, Rubén; Solis, Rosa L; Batista, Niurka; Borrero, Reinier; Campa, Concepción

    2010-07-01

    Leptospirosis is a zoonotic disease of major importance in the tropics where the incidence peaks in rainy seasons. Natural disasters represent a big challenge to Leptospirosis prevention strategies especially in endemic regions. Vaccination is an effective option but of reduced effectiveness in emergency situations. Homeoprophylactic interventions might help to control epidemics by using highly-diluted pathogens to induce protection in a short time scale. We report the results of a very large-scale homeoprophylaxis (HP) intervention against Leptospirosis in a dangerous epidemic situation in three provinces of Cuba in 2007. Forecast models were used to estimate possible trends of disease incidence. A homeoprophylactic formulation was prepared from dilutions of four circulating strains of Leptospirosis. This formulation was administered orally to 2.3 million persons at high risk in an epidemic in a region affected by natural disasters. The data from surveillance were used to measure the impact of the intervention by comparing with historical trends and non-intervention regions. After the homeoprophylactic intervention a significant decrease of the disease incidence was observed in the intervention regions. No such modifications were observed in non-intervention regions. In the intervention region the incidence of Leptospirosis fell below the historic median. This observation was independent of rainfall. The homeoprophylactic approach was associated with a large reduction of disease incidence and control of the epidemic. The results suggest the use of HP as a feasible tool for epidemic control, further research is warranted. 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Emergence of epidemics in rapidly varying networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kohar, Vivek; Sinha, Sudeshna

    2013-01-01

    We describe a simple model mimicking disease spreading on a network with dynamically varying connections, and investigate the dynamical consequences of switching links in the network. Our central observation is that the disease cycles get more synchronized, indicating the onset of epidemics, as the underlying network changes more rapidly. This behavior is found for periodically switched links, as well as links that switch randomly in time. We find that the influence of changing links is more pronounced in networks where the nodes have lower degree, and the disease cycle has a longer infective stage. Further, when the switching of links is periodic we observe finer dynamical features, such as beating patterns in the emergent oscillations and resonant enhancement of synchronization, arising from the interplay between the time-scales of the connectivity changes and that of the epidemic outbreaks

  15. Predicting distribution of Aedes aegypti and Culex pipiens complex, potential vectors of Rift Valley fever virus in relation to disease epidemics in East Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Clement Nyamunura Mweya

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Background: The East African region has experienced several Rift Valley fever (RVF outbreaks since the 1930s. The objective of this study was to identify distributions of potential disease vectors in relation to disease epidemics. Understanding disease vector potential distributions is a major concern for disease transmission dynamics. Methods: Diverse ecological niche modelling techniques have been developed for this purpose: we present a maximum entropy (Maxent approach for estimating distributions of potential RVF vectors in un-sampled areas in East Africa. We modelled the distribution of two species of mosquitoes (Aedes aegypti and Culex pipiens complex responsible for potential maintenance and amplification of the virus, respectively. Predicted distributions of environmentally suitable areas in East Africa were based on the presence-only occurrence data derived from our entomological study in Ngorongoro District in northern Tanzania. Results: Our model predicted potential suitable areas with high success rates of 90.9% for A. aegypti and 91.6% for C. pipiens complex. Model performance was statistically significantly better than random for both species. Most suitable sites for the two vectors were predicted in central and northwestern Tanzania with previous disease epidemics. Other important risk areas include western Lake Victoria, northern parts of Lake Malawi, and the Rift Valley region of Kenya. Conclusion: Findings from this study show distributions of vectors had biological and epidemiological significance in relation to disease outbreak hotspots, and hence provide guidance for the selection of sampling areas for RVF vectors during inter-epidemic periods.

  16. Predicting distribution of Aedes aegypti and Culex pipiens complex, potential vectors of Rift Valley fever virus in relation to disease epidemics in East Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mweya, Clement Nyamunura; Kimera, Sharadhuli Iddi; Kija, John Bukombe; Mboera, Leonard E G

    2013-01-01

    The East African region has experienced several Rift Valley fever (RVF) outbreaks since the 1930s. The objective of this study was to identify distributions of potential disease vectors in relation to disease epidemics. Understanding disease vector potential distributions is a major concern for disease transmission dynamics. DIVERSE ECOLOGICAL NICHE MODELLING TECHNIQUES HAVE BEEN DEVELOPED FOR THIS PURPOSE: we present a maximum entropy (Maxent) approach for estimating distributions of potential RVF vectors in un-sampled areas in East Africa. We modelled the distribution of two species of mosquitoes (Aedes aegypti and Culex pipiens complex) responsible for potential maintenance and amplification of the virus, respectively. Predicted distributions of environmentally suitable areas in East Africa were based on the presence-only occurrence data derived from our entomological study in Ngorongoro District in northern Tanzania. Our model predicted potential suitable areas with high success rates of 90.9% for A. aegypti and 91.6% for C. pipiens complex. Model performance was statistically significantly better than random for both species. Most suitable sites for the two vectors were predicted in central and northwestern Tanzania with previous disease epidemics. Other important risk areas include western Lake Victoria, northern parts of Lake Malawi, and the Rift Valley region of Kenya. Findings from this study show distributions of vectors had biological and epidemiological significance in relation to disease outbreak hotspots, and hence provide guidance for the selection of sampling areas for RVF vectors during inter-epidemic periods.

  17. Rapid typing of foot-and-mouth disease serotype Asia 1 by reverse transcription loop-mediated isothermal amplification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chen Hao-tai

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract A reverse transcriptase loop-mediated isothermal amplification (RT-LAMP assay was rapidly used to detect serotype Asia 1 of foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV within 45 min at 61°C. All FMDV serotype Asia 1 reference strains were positive by RT-LAMP, while other viruses such as FMDV serotypes O, C, A and classical swine fever virus, swine vesicular disease virus, porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus and Japanese encephalitis virus remained negative. Furthermore, FMDV sreotype Asia 1 positive samples were able to detect by RT-LAMP assay. This RT-LAMP assay may be suitable particularly for diagnosis of FMDV serotype Asia 1 infection in field stations.

  18. Oral hygiene and mouth care for older people in acute hospitals: part 1.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steel, Ben J

    2017-10-31

    The oral health of older people in acute hospitals has rarely been studied. Hospital admission provides a prime opportunity for identification and rectification of problems, and oral health promotion. This two-part article explores oral hygiene and mouth care provision for older adults in acute hospitals. The first article presents the findings of a literature review exploring oral and dental disease in older adults, the importance of good oral health and mouth care, and the current situation. Searches of electronic databases and the websites of relevant professional health service bodies in the UK were undertaken to identify articles and guidelines. The literature shows a high prevalence of oro-dental disease in this population, with many known detrimental effects, combined with suboptimal oral hygiene and mouth care provision in acute hospitals. Several guidelines exist, although the emphasis on oral health is weaker than other aspects of hospital care. Older adults admitted to acute hospitals have a high burden of oro-dental disease and oral and mouth care needs, but care provision tends to be suboptimal. The literature is growing, but this area is still relatively neglected. Great potential exists to develop oral and mouth care in this context. The second part of this article explores clinical recommendations. ©2012 RCN Publishing Company Ltd. All rights reserved. Not to be copied, transmitted or recorded in any way, in whole or part, without prior permission of the publishers.

  19. Recalibrating disease parameters for increasing realism in modeling epidemics in closed settings

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    Livio Bioglio

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The homogeneous mixing assumption is widely adopted in epidemic modelling for its parsimony and represents the building block of more complex approaches, including very detailed agent-based models. The latter assume homogeneous mixing within schools, workplaces and households, mostly for the lack of detailed information on human contact behaviour within these settings. The recent data availability on high-resolution face-to-face interactions makes it now possible to assess the goodness of this simplified scheme in reproducing relevant aspects of the infection dynamics. Methods We consider empirical contact networks gathered in different contexts, as well as synthetic data obtained through realistic models of contacts in structured populations. We perform stochastic spreading simulations on these contact networks and in populations of the same size under a homogeneous mixing hypothesis. We adjust the epidemiological parameters of the latter in order to fit the prevalence curve of the contact epidemic model. We quantify the agreement by comparing epidemic peak times, peak values, and epidemic sizes. Results Good approximations of the peak times and peak values are obtained with the homogeneous mixing approach, with a median relative difference smaller than 20 % in all cases investigated. Accuracy in reproducing the peak time depends on the setting under study, while for the peak value it is independent of the setting. Recalibration is found to be linear in the epidemic parameters used in the contact data simulations, showing changes across empirical settings but robustness across groups and population sizes. Conclusions An adequate rescaling of the epidemiological parameters can yield a good agreement between the epidemic curves obtained with a real contact network and a homogeneous mixing approach in a population of the same size. The use of such recalibrated homogeneous mixing approximations would enhance the accuracy and

  20. Recalibrating disease parameters for increasing realism in modeling epidemics in closed settings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bioglio, Livio; Génois, Mathieu; Vestergaard, Christian L; Poletto, Chiara; Barrat, Alain; Colizza, Vittoria

    2016-11-14

    The homogeneous mixing assumption is widely adopted in epidemic modelling for its parsimony and represents the building block of more complex approaches, including very detailed agent-based models. The latter assume homogeneous mixing within schools, workplaces and households, mostly for the lack of detailed information on human contact behaviour within these settings. The recent data availability on high-resolution face-to-face interactions makes it now possible to assess the goodness of this simplified scheme in reproducing relevant aspects of the infection dynamics. We consider empirical contact networks gathered in different contexts, as well as synthetic data obtained through realistic models of contacts in structured populations. We perform stochastic spreading simulations on these contact networks and in populations of the same size under a homogeneous mixing hypothesis. We adjust the epidemiological parameters of the latter in order to fit the prevalence curve of the contact epidemic model. We quantify the agreement by comparing epidemic peak times, peak values, and epidemic sizes. Good approximations of the peak times and peak values are obtained with the homogeneous mixing approach, with a median relative difference smaller than 20 % in all cases investigated. Accuracy in reproducing the peak time depends on the setting under study, while for the peak value it is independent of the setting. Recalibration is found to be linear in the epidemic parameters used in the contact data simulations, showing changes across empirical settings but robustness across groups and population sizes. An adequate rescaling of the epidemiological parameters can yield a good agreement between the epidemic curves obtained with a real contact network and a homogeneous mixing approach in a population of the same size. The use of such recalibrated homogeneous mixing approximations would enhance the accuracy and realism of agent-based simulations and limit the intrinsic biases of

  1. [Analysis on the change of genotype of enteroviruses associated hand, foot and mouth disease in Beijing during 2013 to 2014].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Qinwei; Huang, Hui; Deng, Jie; Zhao, Linqing; Deng, Li; Sun, Yu; Wang, Fang; Oian, Yuan; Zhu, Runan

    2015-08-01

    To analyze the genotype, epidemic pattern and the characteristics of the disease of enteroviruses during the epidemic season of hand, foot and mouth disease (HMFD) in children from 2013 to 2014 in Beijing to provide the scientific evidence for prevention and treatment of HFMD. During April to September in 2013 and March to October in 2014, a total of 977 throat swabs were collected from children who visited the Children's Hospital Affiliated to Capital Institute of Pediatrics, including 147 from patients with HFMD in 2013, 343 with HFMD, 201 with atypical HFMD, 83 with herpangina, 25 with fever with convulsions, 64 fever with rash and 114 with rash in 2014. Enteroviruses universal type (EV), Enteroviruses type 71 (EV71) and Coxsackievirus group A 16 (CA16) were detected by real-time RT-PCR respectively. The nucleic acid of specimens which were identified with non-EV71, non-CA16 was tested by nested PCR and analyzed by VP1 sequencing. The detection rate and epidemic pattern of different genotypes of enterovirus were analyzed among different age groups and between 2013 and 2014. Of 977 throat swabs, 80. 1% samples were detected positive for enteroviruses. The positive rates of CA16, EV71, CA6, CA10, CA4 and other EVs were 25. 6% (250/977), 18. 9% (185/977), 20. 0% (195/977), 5. 0% (49/977), 1.5% (15/977) and 9.1% (89/977), respectively. Twenty six of the 89 other EVs included CA2, CA5, CA8, CA9, CA12, CA14, CB2, CB5, E6, E9 and E25, each genotype of which was no more than 3. The nucleotide homologies shared among CA6, CA10 and CA4 strains between 2013 and 2014 were 94. 3% - 100%, 93. 8% - 99. 1% and 92.7% - 99. 8%, respectively. The positive rates of ≤1 year group were 71. 1% (106/149), which was lower than that of other age groups (all P 5 year group (χ2 =1. 181,P = 0. 277). In 2013, the positive rate of EV was 85. 7% (126/147) and the predominant genotype was CA6 54. 8% (69/126), followed by CA16 20. 6% (26/126) and EV71 11. 9% (15/126). In 2014, the positive

  2. Prediction of meningococcal meningitis epidemics in western Africa by using climate information

    Science.gov (United States)

    YAKA, D. P.; Sultan, B.; Tarbangdo, F.; Thiaw, W. M.

    2013-12-01

    The variations of certain climatic parameters and the degradation of ecosystems, can affect human's health by influencing the transmission, the spatiotemporal repartition and the intensity of infectious diseases. It is mainly the case of meningococcal meningitis (MCM) whose epidemics occur particularly in Sahelo-Soudanian climatic area of Western Africa under quite particular climatic conditions. Meningococcal Meningitis (MCM) is a contagious infection disease due to the bacteria Neisseria meningitis. MCM epidemics occur worldwide but the highest incidence is observed in the "meningitis belt" of sub-Saharan Africa, stretching from Senegal to Ethiopia. In spite of standards, strategies of prevention and control of MCS epidemic from World Health Organization (WHO) and States, African Sahelo-Soudanian countries remain frequently afflicted by disastrous epidemics. In fact, each year, during the dry season (February-April), 25 to 250 thousands of cases are observed. Children under 15 are particularly affected. Among favourable conditions for the resurgence and dispersion of the disease, climatic conditions may be important inducing seasonal fluctuations in disease incidence and contributing to explain the spatial pattern of the disease roughly circumscribed to the ecological Sahelo-Sudanian band. In this study, we tried to analyse the relationships between climatic factors, ecosystems degradation and MCM for a better understanding of MCM epidemic dynamic and their prediction. We have shown that MCM epidemics, whether at the regional, national or local level, occur in a specific period of the year, mainly from January to May characterised by a dry, hot and sandy weather. We have identified both in situ (meteorological synoptic stations) and satellitales climatic variables (NCEP reanalysis dataset) whose seasonal variability is dominating in MCM seasonal transmission. Statistical analysis have measured the links between seasonal variation of certain climatic parameters

  3. Azañón's disease. A 19th century epidemic of neurolathyrism in Spain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giménez-Roldán, S; Spencer, P S

    2016-12-01

    The cultivation and consumption of grasspea (Lathyrus sativus) in Spain probably dates back centuries, especially during times of famine when the neurotoxic potential of this legume was expressed in the form of a spastic paraparesis known as neurolathyrism. Little known outside the country, the epidemic of neurolathyrism in the years following the Spanish Civil War (1936-1939) came to affect more than a thousand people. In late 1872, during the Six Years Revolutionary Term, young Alejandro San Martín Satrústegui (1847-1908), then editor of the popular weekly El Siglo Médico, travelled to Azañón, a remote village in the province of Guadalajara, to clarify a so-far unknown disease. We analysed the original article published in 1873 by San Martin, as well as communications sent by El Siglo Médico readers reporting similar cases in many other Castilian provinces. San Martín's neurological findings in seven personally examined cases were astonishingly accurate; he concluded the subjects' neurological deficits resulted from injury to the lateral columns in the lower portion of the spinal cord. Description of the clinical findings provided both by San Martín, and by the readers of El Siglo Médico, leave no doubt as to the diagnosis of neurolathyrism. However, none suspected the patient's staple food was the determinant cause of the disease. San Martín proposed the eponym Azañón's disease for lack of a better name the same year (1873) in which Cantani in Italy introduced the term lathyrism. The epidemic of neurolathyrism that affected many Castilian towns represents one of the best-documented in Europe during the last third of the 19th century. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  4. Promising MS2 mediated virus-like particle vaccine against foot-and-mouth disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Yan-mei; Zhang, Guo-guang; Huang, Xiao-jun; Chen, Liang; Chen, Hao-tai

    2015-05-01

    Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) has caused severe economic losses to millions of farmers worldwide. In this work, the coding genes of 141-160 epitope peptide (EP141-160) of VP1 were inserted into the coat protein (CP) genes of MS2 in prokaryotic expression vector, and the recombinant protein self-assembled into virus-like particles (VLP). Results showed that the CP-EP141-160 VLP had a strong immunoreaction with the FMD virus (FMDV) antigen in vitro, and also had an effective immune response in mice. Further virus challenge tests were carried out on guinea pigs and swine, high-titer neutralizing antibodies were produced and the CP-EP141-160 VLP vaccine could protect most of the animals against FMDV. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  5. Differential Persistence of Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus in African Buffalo Is Related to Virus Virulence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maree, Francois; de Klerk-Lorist, Lin-Mari; Gubbins, Simon; Zhang, Fuquan; Seago, Julian; Pérez-Martín, Eva; Reid, Liz; Scott, Katherine; van Schalkwyk, Louis; Bengis, Roy; Charleston, Bryan; Juleff, Nicholas

    2016-05-15

    Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) virus (FMDV) circulates as multiple serotypes and strains in many regions of endemicity. In particular, the three Southern African Territories (SAT) serotypes are maintained effectively in their wildlife reservoir, the African buffalo, and individuals may harbor multiple SAT serotypes for extended periods in the pharyngeal region. However, the exact site and mechanism for persistence remain unclear. FMD in buffaloes offers a unique opportunity to study FMDV persistence, as transmission from carrier ruminants has convincingly been demonstrated for only this species. Following coinfection of naive African buffaloes with isolates of three SAT serotypes from field buffaloes, palatine tonsil swabs were the sample of choice for recovering infectious FMDV up to 400 days postinfection (dpi). Postmortem examination identified infectious virus for up to 185 dpi and viral genomes for up to 400 dpi in lymphoid tissues of the head and neck, focused mainly in germinal centers. Interestingly, viral persistence in vivo was not homogenous, and the SAT-1 isolate persisted longer than the SAT-2 and SAT-3 isolates. Coinfection and passage of these SAT isolates in goat and buffalo cell lines demonstrated a direct correlation between persistence and cell-killing capacity. These data suggest that FMDV persistence occurs in the germinal centers of lymphoid tissue but that the duration of persistence is related to virus replication and cell-killing capacity. Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) causes a highly contagious acute vesicular disease in domestic livestock and wildlife species. African buffaloes (Syncerus caffer) are the primary carrier hosts of FMDV in African savannah ecosystems, where the disease is endemic. We have shown that the virus persists for up to 400 days in buffaloes and that there is competition between viruses during mixed infections. There was similar competition in cell culture: viruses that killed cells quickly persisted more

  6. IMPACTS OF THE 2005 FOOT AND MOUTH DISEASE OUTBREAK ON BRAZILIAN BEEF EXPORTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diana Cortes Carvalho Garcia

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD can lead to sanitary barriers to international trade and involves high investments for control and great losses in the event of an outbreak. This study investigated the impacts caused by FMD on the exports of fresh beef from Brazil after the 2005 outbreak and the observance of the regionalization principle of the Agreement on the Application of Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures (SPS by countries member of the WTO that were listed as the top 10 beef importing countries in 2004. The FMD outbreak that began in 2005 did not limit the increase in exports of fresh beef from Brazil, but impacted negatively on exports from Mato Grosso do Sul and Paraná States. The disease did not impact exports to the United States, Japan or Mexico, since these markets were closed to Brazil. Saudi Arabia, Russia and Iran were not members of the WTO in October 2005 and therefore had no obligation to respect the principle of regionalization, though Russia respected it. Among the other major importers of 2004, the Netherlands, Egypt, Italy, United Kingdom, France, Germany and Spain respected the principle of regionalization of the SPS Agreement. Chile did not respect the principle and the occurrence of the disease closed the market to Brazilian fresh beef.

  7. 2,500-year Evolution of the Term Epidemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin-Granel, Estelle

    2006-01-01

    The term epidemic (from the Greek epi [on] plus demos [people]), first used by Homer, took its medical meaning when Hippocrates used it as the title of one of his famous treatises. At that time, epidemic was the name given to a collection of clinical syndromes, such as coughs or diarrheas, occurring and propagating in a given period at a given location. Over centuries, the form and meaning of the term have changed. Successive epidemics of plague in the Middle Ages contributed to the definition of an epidemic as the propagation of a single, well-defined disease. The meaning of the term continued to evolve in the 19th-century era of microbiology. Its most recent semantic evolution dates from the last quarter of the 20th century, and this evolution is likely to continue in the future. PMID:16707055

  8. Dry Mouth (Xerostomia)

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Finding Dental Care Home Health Info Health Topics Dry Mouth Saliva, or spit, is made by the salivary ... help keep teeth strong and fight tooth decay. Dry mouth, also called xerostomia (ZEER-oh-STOH-mee-ah), ...

  9. An epidemic model for the future progression of the current Haiti cholera epidemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertuzzo, E.; Mari, L.; Righetto, L.; Casagrandi, R.; Gatto, M.; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.; Rinaldo, A.

    2012-04-01

    As a major cholera epidemic progresses in Haiti, and the figures of the infection, up to December 2011, climb to 522,000 cases and 7,000 deaths, the development of general models to track and predict the evolution of the outbreak, so as to guide the allocation of medical supplies and staff, is gaining notable urgency. We propose here a spatially explicit epidemic model that accounts for the dynamics of susceptible and infected individuals as well as the redistribution of Vibrio cholera, the causative agent of the disease, among different human communities. In particular, we model two spreading pathways: the advection of pathogens through hydrologic connections and the dissemination due to human mobility described by means of a gravity-like model. To this end the country has been divided into hydrologic units based on drainage directions derived from a digital terrain model. Moreover the population of each unit has been estimated from census data downscaled to 1 km x 1 km resolution via remotely sensed geomorphological information (LandScan project). The model directly accounts for the role of rainfall patterns in driving the seasonality of cholera outbreaks. The two main outbreaks in fact occurred during the rainy seasons (October and May) when extensive floodings severely worsened the sanitation conditions and, in turn, raised the risk of infection. The model capability to reproduce the spatiotemporal features of the epidemic up to date grants robustness to the foreseen future development. To this end, we generate realistic scenario of future precipitation in order to forecast possible epidemic paths up to the end of the 2013. In this context, the duration of acquired immunity, a hotly debated topic in the scientific community, emerges as a controlling factor for progression of the epidemic in the near future. The framework presented here can straightforwardly be used to evaluate the effectiveness of alternative intervention strategies like mass vaccinations

  10. Characteristic properties of carrying out anti-epidemic arrangements during liquidation of radiation accident after-effects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shaposhnikov, A.A.; Konyshev, I.S.

    1995-01-01

    During liquidation of the after-effects of technogenic accidents it is necessary to maintain satisfactory sanitary and epidemiological conditions in the emergency zone and in the regions of temporary accommodation of the evacuated population, to secure epidemic safety of drinking water, edible raw materials and prepared foods, communal and other establishments. The volume and trend of anti-epidemic measures are planned depending on the type of epidemic situation. In the course of sanitary-epidemiological survey should be ascertained the prevalence of diseases among the population, epizootic among domestic animals and synanthropous rodents, the existence of natural foci of infectious diseases and their activity, the conditions of epidemically important establishments in the emergency zone, sanitary conditions of places of residence of population, the presence of transmitters of infectious diseases, the system of organization of anti-epidemic control of population and rescuers. The rehabilitation of immunological reactivity of human body up to adequate response to the antigen irritation is observed within various periods of time after recovery from radial disease (1-3 months). 17 refs.; 2 tabs

  11. Evaluation of Strategies to Control a Potential Outbreak of Foot-and-Mouth Disease in Sweden

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fernanda C. Dórea

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available To minimize the potential consequences of an introduction of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD in Europe, European Union (EU member states are required to present a contingency plan. This study used a simulation model to study potential outbreak scenarios in Sweden and evaluate the best control strategies. The model was informed by the Swedish livestock structure using herd information from cattle, pig, and small ruminant holdings in the country. The contact structure was based on animal movement data and studies investigating the movements between farms of veterinarians, service trucks, and other farm visitors. All scenarios of outbreak control included depopulation of detected herds, 3 km protection and 10 km surveillance zones, movement tracing, and 3 days national standstill. The effect of availability of surveillance resources, i.e., number of field veterinarians per day, and timeliness of enforcement of interventions, was assessed. With the estimated currently available resources, an FMD outbreak in Sweden is expected to be controlled (i.e., last infected herd detected within 3 weeks of detection in any evaluated scenario. The density of farms in the area where the epidemic started would have little impact on the time to control the outbreak, but spread in high density areas would require more surveillance resources, compared to areas of lower farm density. The use of vaccination did not result in a reduction in the expected number of infected herds. Preemptive depopulation was able to reduce the number of infected herds in extreme scenarios designed to test a combination of worst-case conditions of virus introduction and spread, but at the cost of doubling the number of herds culled. This likely resulted from a combination of the small outbreaks predicted by the spread model, and the high efficacy of the basic control measures evaluated, under the conditions of the Swedish livestock industry, and considering the assumed control

  12. Characterization of severe hand, foot, and mouth disease in Shenzhen, China, 2009-2013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Yun; Zhou, Yuanping; Lu, Hong; Yang, Hong; Feng, Qianjin; Dai, Yingchun; Chen, Long; Yu, Shouyi; Yao, Xiangjie; Zhang, Hailong; Jiang, Ming; Wang, Yujie; Han, Ning; Hu, Guifang; He, Yaqing

    2015-09-01

    Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is caused by human enteroviruses, especially by enterovirus 71 (EV71) and coxsackievirus A16 (CA16). Patients infected with different enteroviruses show varied clinical symptoms. The aim of this study was to determine whether the etiological spectrum of mild and severe HFMD changed, and the association between pathogens and clinical features. From 2009 to 2013, a total of 2,299 stool or rectal specimens were collected with corresponding patient data. A dynamic view of the etiological spectrum of mild and severe HFMD in Shenzhen city of China was provided. EV71 accounted for the majority proportion of severe HFMD cases and fatalities during 2009-2013. CA16 and EV71 were gradually replaced by coxsackievirus A6 (CA6) as the most common serotype for mild HFMD since 2010. Myoclonic jerk and vomiting were the most frequent severe symptoms. Nervous system complications, including aseptic encephalitis and aseptic meningitis were observed mainly in patients infected by EV71. Among EV71, CA16, CA6, and CA10 infection, fever and pharyngalgia were more likely to develop, vesicles on the hand, foot, elbow, knee and buttock were less likely to develop in patients infected with CA10. Vesicles on the mouth more frequently occurred in the patients with CA6, but less in the patient with EV71. Associations between diverse enterovirus serotypes and various clinical features were discovered in the present study, which may offer further insight into early detection, diagnosis and treatment of HFMD. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  13. Deep sequencing of foot-and-mouth disease virus reveals RNA sequences involved in genome packaging.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Logan, Grace; Newman, Joseph; Wright, Caroline F; Lasecka-Dykes, Lidia; Haydon, Daniel T; Cottam, Eleanor M; Tuthill, Tobias J

    2017-10-18

    Non-enveloped viruses protect their genomes by packaging them into an outer shell or capsid of virus-encoded proteins. Packaging and capsid assembly in RNA viruses can involve interactions between capsid proteins and secondary structures in the viral genome as exemplified by the RNA bacteriophage MS2 and as proposed for other RNA viruses of plants, animals and human. In the picornavirus family of non-enveloped RNA viruses, the requirements for genome packaging remain poorly understood. Here we show a novel and simple approach to identify predicted RNA secondary structures involved in genome packaging in the picornavirus foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV). By interrogating deep sequencing data generated from both packaged and unpackaged populations of RNA we have determined multiple regions of the genome with constrained variation in the packaged population. Predicted secondary structures of these regions revealed stem loops with conservation of structure and a common motif at the loop. Disruption of these features resulted in attenuation of virus growth in cell culture due to a reduction in assembly of mature virions. This study provides evidence for the involvement of predicted RNA structures in picornavirus packaging and offers a readily transferable methodology for identifying packaging requirements in many other viruses. Importance In order to transmit their genetic material to a new host, non-enveloped viruses must protect their genomes by packaging them into an outer shell or capsid of virus-encoded proteins. For many non-enveloped RNA viruses the requirements for this critical part of the viral life cycle remain poorly understood. We have identified RNA sequences involved in genome packaging of the picornavirus foot-and-mouth disease virus. This virus causes an economically devastating disease of livestock affecting both the developed and developing world. The experimental methods developed to carry out this work are novel, simple and transferable to the

  14. MRI findings of spine: acute flaccid paralysis associated with enterovirus 71 infected hand-foot-mouth disease

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cheng Hua; Peng Yun; Duan Xiaomin; Wang Xu; Zeng Jinjin; Sun Guoqiang

    2008-01-01

    Objective: To investigate the characteristics of spinal MR images in acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) associated with enterovirus 71 infected hand-foot-mouth disease. Methods: The spinal MR images of eight infants with AFP and positive EV71 cultures were analyzed during an outbreak of hand-foot-mouth disease in China in 2008. Results: Acute paralysis was observed in one lower limb in 4 of the 8 patients, in four limbs in 2 patients, in one upper limb and both lower limbs in 1 patient, 2 of the 8 patients also had brain stem encephalitis. Lesions were identified in anterior horn regions of spinal cord with hyperintensity on T 2 -weighted images and hypointensity on T 1 -weighted images. Location of the lesions included C3 to C7 (1 case), T10 extending to conus medullaris (5 cases) and a combination of the above (2 cases). Five of the 8 patients presented with unilateral paralysis. Two of the 5 cases showed unilateral hyperintense lesions in anterior horn regions and the remaining 3 cases showed bilateral hyperintense lesions in anterior horn regions with a unilateral predominance. One of the 3 patients with bilateral lesions showed slight enhancement of anterior horn with prominent enhancement of ventral roots after intravenous injections of contrast medium. Three of the 8 patients with bilateral paralysis showed bilateral hyperintensity in both anterior horn regions. Conclusion: MR is the imaging modality of choice for the detection of radiculomyelitis of AFP associated with EV71 infection. (authors)

  15. Attenuation of Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus by Engineered Viral Polymerase Fidelity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rai, Devendra K; Diaz-San Segundo, Fayna; Campagnola, Grace; Keith, Anna; Schafer, Elizabeth A; Kloc, Anna; de Los Santos, Teresa; Peersen, Olve; Rieder, Elizabeth

    2017-08-01

    Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (RdRp) (3D pol ) catalyzes viral RNA synthesis. Its characteristic low fidelity and absence of proofreading activity allow FMDV to rapidly mutate and adapt to dynamic environments. In this study, we used the structure of FMDV 3D pol in combination with previously reported results from similar picornaviral polymerases to design point mutations that would alter replication fidelity. In particular, we targeted Trp237 within conserved polymerase motif A because of the low reversion potential inherent in the single UGG codon. Using biochemical and genetic tools, we show that the replacement of tryptophan 237 with phenylalanine imparts higher fidelity, but replacements with isoleucine and leucine resulted in lower-fidelity phenotypes. Viruses containing these W237 substitutions show in vitro growth kinetics and plaque morphologies similar to those of the wild-type (WT) A 24 Cruzeiro strain in BHK cells, and both high- and low-fidelity variants retained fitness during coinfection with the wild-type virus. The higher-fidelity W237F (W237F HF ) mutant virus was more resistant to the mutagenic nucleoside analogs ribavirin and 5-fluorouracil than the WT virus, whereas the lower-fidelity W237I (W237I LF ) and W237L LF mutant viruses exhibited lower ribavirin resistance. Interestingly, the variant viruses showed heterogeneous and slightly delayed growth kinetics in primary porcine kidney cells, and they were significantly attenuated in mouse infection experiments. These data demonstrate, for a single virus, that either increased or decreased RdRp fidelity attenuates virus growth in animals, which is a desirable feature for the development of safer and genetically more stable vaccine candidates. IMPORTANCE Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is the most devastating disease affecting livestock worldwide. Here, using structural and biochemical analyses, we have identified FMDV 3D pol mutations that affect polymerase

  16. The threshold of a stochastic SIQS epidemic model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xiao-Bing; Huo, Hai-Feng; Xiang, Hong; Shi, Qihong; Li, Dungang

    2017-09-01

    In this paper, we present the threshold of a stochastic SIQS epidemic model which determines the extinction and persistence of the disease. Furthermore, we find that noise can suppress the disease outbreak. Numerical simulations are also carried out to confirm the analytical results.

  17. Low diversity of foot-and-mouth disease serotype C virus in Kenya: evidence for probable vaccine strain re-introductions in the field

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sangula, Abraham; Siegismund, Hans; Belsham, Graham

    2011-01-01

    Most viruses are maintained by complex processes of evolution that enable them to survive but also complicate efforts to achieve their control. In this paper, we study patterns of evolution in foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) serotype C virus isolates from Kenya, one of the few places in the world wh...

  18. Dynamical behavior of an epidemic model for a vector-borne disease with direct transmission

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cai Liming; Li Xuezhi; Li Zhaoqiang

    2013-01-01

    An epidemic model of a vector-borne disease with direct transmission is investigated. The reproduction number (R 0 ) of the model is obtained. Rigorous qualitative analysis of the model reveals the presence of the phenomenon of backward bifurcation (where the stable disease-free equilibrium (DFE) coexists with a stable endemic equilibrium when the reproduction number of the disease is less than unity) in the standard incidence model. The phenomenon shows that the classical epidemiological requirement of having the reproduction number less than unity is no longer sufficient, although necessary, for effectively controlling the spread of some vector-borne diseases in a community. The backward bifurcation phenomenon can be removed by substituting the standard incidence with a bilinear mass action incidence. By using Lyapunov function theory and LaSalle invariance principle, it is shown that the unique endemic equilibrium for the model with a mass action incidence is globally stable if the reproduction number R mass is greater than one in feasible region. This suggests that the use of standard incidence in modelling some vector-borne diseases with direct transmission results in the presence of backward bifurcation. Numerical simulations analyze the effect of the direct transmission and the disease-induced death rate on dynamics of the disease transmission, and also verify our analyzed results.

  19. The impact of awareness on epidemic spreading in networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Qingchu; Fu, Xinchu; Small, Michael; Xu, Xin-Jian

    2012-03-01

    We explore the impact of awareness on epidemic spreading through a population represented by a scale-free network. Using a network mean-field approach, a mathematical model for epidemic spreading with awareness reactions is proposed and analyzed. We focus on the role of three forms of awareness including local, global, and contact awareness. By theoretical analysis and simulation, we show that the global awareness cannot decrease the likelihood of an epidemic outbreak while both the local awareness and the contact awareness can. Also, the influence degree of the local awareness on disease dynamics is closely related with the contact awareness.

  20. Epidemics: Lessons from the past and current patterns of response

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Paul

    2008-09-01

    Hippocrates gave the term 'epidemic' its medical meaning. From antiquity to modern times, the meaning of the word epidemic has continued to evolve. Over the centuries, researchers have reached an understanding of the varying aspects of epidemics and have tried to combat them. The role played by travel, trade, and human exchanges in the propagation of epidemic infectious diseases has been understood. In 1948, the World Health Organization was created and given the task of advancing ways of combating epidemics. An early warning system to combat epidemics has been implemented by the WHO. The Global Outbreak Alert and Response Network (GOARN) is collaboration between existing institutions and networks that pool their human and technical resources to fight outbreaks. Avian influenza constitutes currently the most deadly epidemic threat, with fears that it could rapidly reach pandemic proportions and put several thousands of lives in jeopardy. Thanks to the WHO's support, most of the world's countries have mobilised and implemented an 'Action Plan for Pandemic Influenza'. As a result, most outbreaks of the H5N1 avian flu virus have so far been speedily contained. Cases of dengue virus introduction in countries possessing every circumstance required for its epidemic spread provide another example pertinent to the prevention of epidemics caused by vector-borne pathogens.

  1. Global Changes in Food Supply and the Obesity Epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zobel, Emilie H; Hansen, Tine W; Rossing, Peter; von Scholten, Bernt Johan

    2016-12-01

    We explore how a global shift in the food system caused by global economic growth, increase in available food per capita and in food processing is a driver of the obesity epidemic. Economic development in most areas of the world has resulted in increased purchasing power and available per capita food. Supermarkets and a growing fast-food industry have transformed our dietary pattern. Ultra-processed food rich on sugars and saturated fat is now the major source of energy in most countries. The shift in food supply is considered a major driver of the obesity epidemic and the increasing prevalence of accompanying complications, such as type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease and cancer. However, the global shift might also have direct effects on the increase in type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease and cancer, independently of overweight and obesity. The shift in the food supply is a major driver of the obesity epidemic.

  2. [Epidemic situation and prevention and control strategy of clonorchiasis in Guangdong Province, China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhuo-Hui, Deng; Yue-Yi, Fang

    2016-05-24

    Clonorchiasis is one of the food-borne parasitic diseases. Adult parasites live in the human liver and gallbladder tube system, causing serious complications, such as gallstones, cholecystitis and cholangitis, and even bile duct cancer. The disease is very popular in our country, and the population infection rate is high. It is an important public health problem. Guangdong Province is the earliest province being found of clonorchiasis and with serious epidemic. In the second national human parasitic diseases distribution survey, the results showed that the average infection rate of Clonorchis sinensis in the epidemic areas in Guangdong was 16.42%. It is estimated that the population of C. sinensis infection is over 6 million. The prevention and control of clonorchiasis in China is still in the initial stage currently and we face many challenges such as unclear epidemic characteristics and transmission mode, and lack of long-term prevention and control mechanism. This article introduces the epidemic situation of clonorchiasis and prevention and control strategies and measures in Guangdong.

  3. Viroses confundíveis com febre aftosa Viral diseases to be differentiated from foot-and-mouth disease

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Franklin Riet-Correa

    1996-08-01

    Full Text Available Revisam-se as doenças que devem ser consideradas no diagnóstico diferencial de febre aftosa. Dentre as doenças vesiculares ou erosivas, descrevem-se os principais aspectos relacionados ao diagnóstico da estomatite vesicular, diarréia viral bovina, febre catarral maligna, infecções por herpesvírus bovino 1 e 5, e uma estomatite ulcerativa associada a parvovírus bovino, que ocorreu no Rio Grande do Sul; língua azul, para a qual tem sido detectados anticorpos em bovinos e ovinos do Rio Grande do Sul; mamilite herpética que ocorre em outros Estados do País;peste bovina, que foi diagnosticada e erradicada no Estado de São Paulo em 1921; estomatite popular; e duas doenças exóticas:exantema vesicular e doença vesicular do suíno.Diseases to be considered in the differential diagnosis of foot-and-mouth disease are reviewed. The main aspects relating to the diagnosis of vesicular stomatitis, bovine virus diarrhea, malignant catarrhal fever, bovine herpesvirus 1 and 5, andem ulcerative stomatitis associated with bovine parvovirus are described. Bluetongue, that probably occurs in Rio Grande do Sul because antibodies to the virus have been detected in cattle and sheep; is refered. Bovine ulcerative mammilitis, reported in other Brazilian States, rinderpest, reported and eradicated in the State of São Paulo in 1921, and popular stomatitis are also cited, and so are two exotic diseases: vesicular exanthema and swine vesicular disease.

  4. Retrospective Analysis of the 2014-2015 Ebola Epidemic in Liberia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atkins, Katherine E; Pandey, Abhishek; Wenzel, Natasha S; Skrip, Laura; Yamin, Dan; Nyenswah, Tolbert G; Fallah, Mosoka; Bawo, Luke; Medlock, Jan; Altice, Frederick L; Townsend, Jeffrey; Ndeffo-Mbah, Martial L; Galvani, Alison P

    2016-04-01

    The 2014-2015 Ebola epidemic has been the most protracted and devastating in the history of the disease. To prevent future outbreaks on this scale, it is imperative to understand the reasons that led to eventual disease control. Here, we evaluated the shifts of Ebola dynamics at national and local scales during the epidemic in Liberia. We used a transmission model calibrated to epidemiological data between June 9 and December 31, 2014, to estimate the extent of community and hospital transmission. We found that despite varied local epidemic patterns, community transmission was reduced by 40-80% in all the counties analyzed. Our model suggests that the tapering of the epidemic was achieved through reductions in community transmission, rather than accumulation of immune individuals through asymptomatic infection and unreported cases. Although the times at which this transmission reduction occurred in the majority of the Liberian counties started before any large expansion in hospital capacity and the distribution of home protection kits, it remains difficult to associate the presence of interventions with reductions in Ebola incidence. © The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.

  5. [Scabies epidemic in a sheltered workshop--what should be done?].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mayer, J; Wever, S; Lurz, C; Bröcker, E B

    2000-02-01

    Scabies is an infectious parasitic skin disease with a notable rising incidence in Germany. The disease is usually transmitted by close physical contact, but indirect spread e.g. by bedding is also possible. Due to its contagiousness, introduction of scabies into crowding living facilities, such as dormitories or kindergartens, can easily cause an epidemic outbreak. We describe an epidemic of scabies in a workshop for handicapped people in February 1998. A worker with severe scabies reported that numerous colleagues in both workshop and the associated hostel had complained of pruritus for months and that some of them already had undergone scabicide treatment. The number of contacts (staff, colleagues, friends, attendants, family) of our patient and the other already affected people was more than 460. The management of the workshop asked for help in handling the epidemic. We describe the cooperative efforts of the management, as well as hospital and private dermatologists, to evaluate all potential contacts and present a concept of treatment for the termination of such an epidemic outbreak of scabies.

  6. Information Spreading in Epidemics and in Communication Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Uekermann, Florian Philipp

    The PhD thesis revolves mainly around models of disease spreading and human behavior. We present models for different epidemic patterns of infectious diseases. This includes investigations of the trajectory of the 2014 Ebola outbreak in West-Africa, influenza evolution and the seasonal dynamics...

  7. Epidemics and Frequent Recombination within Species in Outbreaks of Human Enterovirus B-Associated Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease in Shandong China in 2010 and 2011.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ting Zhang

    Full Text Available The epidemiology and molecular characteristics of human enterovirus B (HEV-B associated with hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD outbreaks in China are not well known. In the present study, we tested 201 HEV isolates from 233 clinical specimens from patients with severe HFMD during 2010-2011 in Linyi, Shandong, China. Of the 201 isolates, 189 were fully typed and 18 corresponded to HEV-B species (six serotypes CVA9, CVB1, CVB4, Echo 6, Echo 25 and Echo 30 using sensitive semi-nested polymerase chain reaction analysis of VP1 gene sequences. Phylogenetic analysis based on the VP1 region showed that eight E30SD belonged to a novel sub-genogroup D2; E25SD belonged to a novel sub-genogroup D6; E6SD belonged to sub-lineage C6 and five CVB1SD belonged to subgroup 4C; and B4SD belonged sub-lineage D2. The full viral genomes of the CVB1SD, E6SD, E25SD and E30SD isolates were sequenced. Analysis of phylogenetic and similarity plots indicated that E25SD recombined with E25-HN-2, E30FDJS03 and E4AUS250 at noncontiguous P2A-P3D regions, while E30SD, E30FDJ03, E25-HN-2 and E9 DM had shared sequences in discrete regions of P2 and P3. Both E6SD and B1SD shared sequences with E1-HN, B4/GX/10, B5-HN, and A9-Alberta in contiguous regions of most of P2 and P3. Genetic algorithm recombination detection analysis further confirmed the existence of multiple potential recombination points. In conclusion, analysis of the complete genomes of E25SD, E30SD, CVB1SD and E6SD isolated from HFMD patients revealed that they formed novel subgenogroup. Given the prevalence and recombination of these viruses in outbreaks of HFMD, persistent surveillance of HFMD-associated HEV-B pathogens is required to predict potential emerging viruses and related disease outbreaks.

  8. Defining epidemics in computer simulation models: How do definitions influence conclusions?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carolyn Orbann

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Computer models have proven to be useful tools in studying epidemic disease in human populations. Such models are being used by a broader base of researchers, and it has become more important to ensure that descriptions of model construction and data analyses are clear and communicate important features of model structure. Papers describing computer models of infectious disease often lack a clear description of how the data are aggregated and whether or not non-epidemic runs are excluded from analyses. Given that there is no concrete quantitative definition of what constitutes an epidemic within the public health literature, each modeler must decide on a strategy for identifying epidemics during simulation runs. Here, an SEIR model was used to test the effects of how varying the cutoff for considering a run an epidemic changes potential interpretations of simulation outcomes. Varying the cutoff from 0% to 15% of the model population ever infected with the illness generated significant differences in numbers of dead and timing variables. These results are important for those who use models to form public health policy, in which questions of timing or implementation of interventions might be answered using findings from computer simulation models.

  9. Homo-psychologicus: Reactionary behavioural aspects of epidemics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alhaji Cherif

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available We formulate an in silico model of pathogen avoidance mechanism and investigate its impact on defensive behavioural measures (e.g., spontaneous social exclusions and distancing, crowd avoidance and voluntary vaccination adaptation. In particular, we use SIR(BS (e.g., susceptible-infected-recovered with additional behavioural component model to investigate the impact of homo-psychologicus aspects of epidemics. We focus on reactionary behavioural changes, which apply to both social distancing and voluntary vaccination participations. Our analyses reveal complex relationships between spontaneous and uncoordinated behavioural changes, the emergence of its contagion properties, and mitigation of infectious diseases. We find that the presence of effective behavioural changes can impede the persistence of disease. Furthermore, it was found that under perfect effective behavioural change, there are three regions in the response factor (e.g., imitation and/or reactionary and behavioural scale factor (e.g., global/local factors ρ–α behavioural space. Mainly, (1 disease is always endemic even in the presence of behavioural change, (2 behavioural-prevalence plasticity is observed and disease can sometimes be eradication, and (3 elimination of endemic disease under permanence of permanent behavioural change is achieved. These results suggest that preventive behavioural changes (e.g., non-pharmaceutical prophylactic measures, social distancing and exclusion, crowd avoidance are influenced by individual differences in perception of risks and are a salient feature of epidemics. Additionally, these findings indicates that care needs to be taken when considering the effect of adaptive behavioural change in predicting the course of epidemics, and as well as the interpretation and development of the public health measures that account for spontaneous behavioural changes.

  10. Homo-psychologicus: Reactionary behavioural aspects of epidemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cherif, Alhaji; Barley, Kamal; Hurtado, Marcel

    2016-03-01

    We formulate an in silico model of pathogen avoidance mechanism and investigate its impact on defensive behavioural measures (e.g., spontaneous social exclusions and distancing, crowd avoidance and voluntary vaccination adaptation). In particular, we use SIR(B)S (e.g., susceptible-infected-recovered with additional behavioural component) model to investigate the impact of homo-psychologicus aspects of epidemics. We focus on reactionary behavioural changes, which apply to both social distancing and voluntary vaccination participations. Our analyses reveal complex relationships between spontaneous and uncoordinated behavioural changes, the emergence of its contagion properties, and mitigation of infectious diseases. We find that the presence of effective behavioural changes can impede the persistence of disease. Furthermore, it was found that under perfect effective behavioural change, there are three regions in the response factor (e.g., imitation and/or reactionary) and behavioural scale factor (e.g., global/local) factors ρ-α behavioural space. Mainly, (1) disease is always endemic even in the presence of behavioural change, (2) behavioural-prevalence plasticity is observed and disease can sometimes be eradication, and (3) elimination of endemic disease under permanence of permanent behavioural change is achieved. These results suggest that preventive behavioural changes (e.g., non-pharmaceutical prophylactic measures, social distancing and exclusion, crowd avoidance) are influenced by individual differences in perception of risks and are a salient feature of epidemics. Additionally, these findings indicates that care needs to be taken when considering the effect of adaptive behavioural change in predicting the course of epidemics, and as well as the interpretation and development of the public health measures that account for spontaneous behavioural changes. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. Porcine epidemic diarrhea virus infection: Etiology, epidemiology, pathogenesis and immunoprophylaxis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jung, Kwonil; Saif, Linda J

    2015-05-01

    Porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV), a member of the genera Alphacoronavirus in the family Coronaviridae, causes acute diarrhea/vomiting, dehydration and high mortality in seronegative neonatal piglets. For the last three decades, PEDV infection has resulted in significant economic losses in the European and Asian pig industries, but in 2013-2014 the disease was also reported in the US, Canada and Mexico. The PED epidemic in the US, from April 2013 to the present, has led to the loss of more than 10% of the US pig population. The disappearance and re-emergence of epidemic PED indicates that the virus is able to escape from current vaccination protocols, biosecurity and control systems. Endemic PED is a significant problem, which is exacerbated by the emergence (or potential importation) of multiple PEDV variants. Epidemic PEDV strains spread rapidly and cause a high number of pig deaths. These strains are highly enteropathogenic and acutely infect villous epithelial cells of the entire small and large intestines although the jejunum and ileum are the primary sites. PEDV infections cause acute, severe atrophic enteritis accompanied by viremia that leads to profound diarrhea and vomiting, followed by extensive dehydration, which is the major cause of death in nursing piglets. A comprehensive understanding of the pathogenic characteristics of epidemic or endemic PEDV strains is needed to prevent and control the disease in affected regions and to develop an effective vaccine. This review focuses on the etiology, epidemiology, disease mechanisms and pathogenesis as well as immunoprophylaxis against PEDV infection. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Modeling the Effects of Multiple Intervention Strategies on Controlling Foot-and-Mouth Disease

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steady Mushayabasa

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD is a threat to economic security and infrastructure as well as animal health, in both developed and developing countries. We propose and analyze an optimal control problem where the control system is a mathematical model for FMD that incorporates vaccination and culling of infectious animals. The control functions represent the fraction of animals that are vaccinated during an outbreak, infectious symptomatic animals that are detected and culled, and infectious nonsymptomatic animals that are detected and culled. Our aim was to study how these control measures should be implemented for a certain time period, in order to reduce or eliminate FMD in the community, while minimizing the interventions implementation costs. A cost-effectiveness analysis is carried out, to compare the application of each one of the control measures, separately or in combination.

  13. Burning mouth syndrome: Evaluation of clinical and laboratory findings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halac, Gulistan; Tekturk, Pinar; Eroglu, Saliha; Cikrikcioglu, Mehmet Ali; Cimendur, Ozlem; Kilic, Elif; Asil, Talip

    2016-07-30

    Burning mouth syndrome is a chronic and persistent painful condition characterized by burning sensation in the oral mucosa. We investigated the etiological factors of patients presented with the history of burning in the mouth who admitted our outpatient clinics over the 8-years period and who had no underlying identifiable local factors. We also tried to determine their demographic and clinical characteristics. Our aim was to investigate the association between burning mouth and psychiatric disorders such as depression and anxiety, chronic diseases like diabetes mellitus (DM) and other laboratory studies in patients complaining of solely burning in the mouth. The study included patients with the history of burning in mouth who presented in our outpatient clinic between 2005 and 2012. They were evaluated by a neurologist, a psychiatrist, an internist, and a dentist. Complete blood counts, biochemical analysis and cranial magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) were performed for all patients. A total of 26 (22 (84%) females, 4 (15%) males; mean age 55.9 years) patients were enrolled in this study. Five (19.2%) of the patients had depression, 2 (7.7%) had anxiety disorder, 2 (7.7%) had diabetes mellitus, 8 (30%) had B12 vitamin deficiency, 3 (11.5%) had decreased ferritin levels in blood, and 1 (3.8%) had folic acid deficiency. Cranial MRI of all patients were normal. Nine patients (34.6%) had no etiological causes. A multidisciplinary approach in the management of burning mouth and establishment of common criteria for the diagnosis would provide insight into the underlying pathophysiological mechanism.

  14. Rainfall-driven epidemic cholera: hydrologic controls on water-borne disease and multi-season projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Righetto, L.; Bertuzzo, E.; Mari, L.; Casagrandi, R.; Gatto, M.; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.; Rinaldo, A.

    2012-12-01

    Following the acknowledgement of a clear correlation between rainfall events and cholera resurgence, that was observed in Haiti starting from May 2011, we use a multi-variate Poisson generator to produce rainfall inputs, with which we force spatially explicit models of cholera spreading. Our models consist of ODE systems of equations, describing a network of human communities (divided in Susceptible, Infected and Recovered individuals) connected by river transport of pathogens and human mobility. We perform an a posteriori analysis -- from the beginning of the epidemic until December 2011 -- to assess the model reliability in predicting cholera cases and in testing control measures -- involving vaccination and sanitation campaigns. We then run a multi-seasonal prediction of the course of the epidemic until December 2015, to investigate further resurgences of cholera in the region and to evaluate, again, the effect of policies which may bring to the eradication of the disease in Haiti. We conclude that mathematical models may represent a key information tool for policy makers, as a way to preliminarly assess the possible future course of an epidemic and to test intervention policies to be deployed. Effect of intervention policies on the predicted course of the epidemic between 28/05-31/12/2011 (blue lines: simulations with the observed rainfall pattern; red lines/shaded range: median/25th-75th percentile range of simulations with generated rainfall). A) Effect of a reduction of the 20% of the contact rate , applied in one month starting from the 1st of June (dashed blue/red lines) or the 1st of July (dotted blue/red lines). B) A) Effect of a vaccination of 4 million individuals, implemented in one month starting from the 1st of June (dashed blue/red lines) or the 1st of July (dotted blue/red lines). C) Number of new cases in the period 28/05-31/12/2011 as a function of the reduction of the contact rate . D) Number of new cases in the period 28/05-31/12/2011 as a

  15. Amphioxus mouth after dorso-ventral inversion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaji, Takao; Reimer, James D; Morov, Arseniy R; Kuratani, Shigeru; Yasui, Kinya

    2016-01-01

    Deuterostomes (animals with 'secondary mouths') are generally accepted to develop the mouth independently of the blastopore. However, it remains largely unknown whether mouths are homologous among all deuterostome groups. Unlike other bilaterians, in amphioxus the mouth initially opens on the left lateral side. This peculiar morphology has not been fully explained in the evolutionary developmental context. We studied the developmental process of the amphioxus mouth to understand whether amphioxus acquired a new mouth, and if so, how it is related to or differs from mouths in other deuterostomes. The left first somite in amphioxus produces a coelomic vesicle between the epidermis and pharynx that plays a crucial role in the mouth opening. The vesicle develops in association with the amphioxus-specific Hatschek nephridium, and first opens into the pharynx and then into the exterior as a mouth. This asymmetrical development of the anterior-most somites depends on the Nodal-Pitx signaling unit, and the perturbation of laterality-determining Nodal signaling led to the disappearance of the vesicle, producing a symmetric pair of anterior-most somites that resulted in larvae lacking orobranchial structures. The vesicle expressed bmp2/4, as seen in ambulacrarian coelomic pore-canals, and the mouth did not open when Bmp2/4 signaling was blocked. We conclude that the amphioxus mouth, which uniquely involves a mesodermal coelomic vesicle, shares its evolutionary origins with the ambulacrarian coelomic pore-canal. Our observations suggest that there are at least three types of mouths in deuterostomes, and that the new acquisition of chordate mouths was likely related to the dorso-ventral inversion that occurred in the last common ancestor of chordates.

  16. Epidemiology of Epidemic Ebola Virus Disease in Conakry and Surrounding Prefectures, Guinea, 2014-2015.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rico, Adriana; Brody, Debra; Coronado, Fátima; Rondy, Marc; Fiebig, Lena; Carcelen, Andrea; Deyde, Varough M; Mesfin, Samuel; Retzer, Kyla D; Bilivogui, Pepe; Keita, Sakoba; Dahl, Benjamin A

    2016-02-01

    In 2014, Ebola virus disease (EVD) in West Africa was first reported during March in 3 southeastern prefectures in Guinea; from there, the disease rapidly spread across West Africa. We describe the epidemiology of EVD cases reported in Guinea's capital, Conakry, and 4 surrounding prefectures (Coyah, Dubreka, Forecariah, and Kindia), encompassing a full year of the epidemic. A total of 1,355 EVD cases, representing ≈40% of cases reported in Guinea, originated from these areas. Overall, Forecariah had the highest cumulative incidence (4× higher than that in Conakry). Case-fatality percentage ranged from 40% in Conakry to 60% in Kindia. Cumulative incidence was slightly higher among male than female residents, although incidences by prefecture and commune differed by sex. Over the course of the year, Conakry and neighboring prefectures became the EVD epicenter in Guinea.

  17. Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus Serotype O Phylodynamics: Genetic Variability Associated with Epidemiological Factors in Pakistan

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brito, B. P.; Perez, A. M.; Jamal, S. M.

    2013-01-01

    One of the most challenging aspects of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) control is the high genetic variability of the FMD virus (FMDV). In endemic settings such as the Indian subcontinent, this variability has resulted in the emergence of pandemic strains that have spread widely and caused devastating...... outbreaks in disease-free areas. In countries trying to control and eradicate FMD using vaccination strategies, the constantly evolving and wide diversity of field FMDV strains is an obstacle for identifying vaccine strains that are successful in conferring protection against infection with field viruses....... Consequently, quantitative knowledge on the factors that are associated with variability of the FMDV is prerequisite for preventing and controlling FMD in the Indian subcontinent. A hierarchical linear model was used to assess the association between time, space, host species and the genetic variability...

  18. Epidemics after Natural Disasters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gayer, Michelle; Connolly, Maire A.

    2007-01-01

    The relationship between natural disasters and communicable diseases is frequently misconstrued. The risk for outbreaks is often presumed to be very high in the chaos that follows natural disasters, a fear likely derived from a perceived association between dead bodies and epidemics. However, the risk factors for outbreaks after disasters are associated primarily with population displacement. The availability of safe water and sanitation facilities, the degree of crowding, the underlying health status of the population, and the availability of healthcare services all interact within the context of the local disease ecology to influence the risk for communicable diseases and death in the affected population. We outline the risk factors for outbreaks after a disaster, review the communicable diseases likely to be important, and establish priorities to address communicable diseases in disaster settings. PMID:17370508

  19. Kit-of-parts for use in a prime-boost vaccination strategy to protect cloven-footed animals against foot-and-mouth disease virus infection

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    2017-01-01

    The present invention relates to a kit-of-parts for use in immunizing an animal against foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) infection. In particular, the present invention relates to a kit-of-parts containing a priming composition and a boosting composition for use in a prime-boost FMDV...

  20. Hub nodes inhibit the outbreak of epidemic under voluntary vaccination

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang Haifeng; Wang Binghong [Department of Modern Physics, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026 (China)], E-mail: bhwang@ustc.edu.cn; Zhang Jie; Small, Michael [Department of Electronic and Information Engineering, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hung Hom, Kowloon, Hong Kong (China)], E-mail: ensmall@polyu.edu.hk; Zhou Changsong [Department of Physics, Centre for Nonlinear Studies, and Beijing-Hong Kong-Singapore Joint Centre for Nonlinear and Complex Systems (Hong Kong), Hong Kong Baptist University, Kowloon Tong, Hong Kong (China)

    2010-02-15

    It is commonly believed that epidemic spreading on scale-free networks is difficult to control and that the disease can spread even with a low infection rate, lacking an epidemic threshold. In this paper, we study epidemic spreading on complex networks under the framework of game theory, in which a voluntary vaccination strategy is incorporated. In particular, individuals face the 'dilemma' of vaccination: they have to decide whether or not to vaccinate according to the trade-off between the risk and the side effects or cost of vaccination. Remarkably and quite excitingly, we find that disease outbreak can be more effectively inhibited on scale-free networks than on random networks. This is because the hub nodes of scale-free networks are more inclined to take self-vaccination after balancing the pros and cons. This result is encouraging as it indicates that real-world networks, which are often claimed to be scale free, can be favorably and easily controlled under voluntary vaccination. Our work provides a way of understanding how to prevent the outbreak of diseases under voluntary vaccination, and is expected to provide valuable information on effective disease control and appropriate decision-making.

  1. Hub nodes inhibit the outbreak of epidemic under voluntary vaccination

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Haifeng; Wang Binghong; Zhang Jie; Small, Michael; Zhou Changsong

    2010-01-01

    It is commonly believed that epidemic spreading on scale-free networks is difficult to control and that the disease can spread even with a low infection rate, lacking an epidemic threshold. In this paper, we study epidemic spreading on complex networks under the framework of game theory, in which a voluntary vaccination strategy is incorporated. In particular, individuals face the 'dilemma' of vaccination: they have to decide whether or not to vaccinate according to the trade-off between the risk and the side effects or cost of vaccination. Remarkably and quite excitingly, we find that disease outbreak can be more effectively inhibited on scale-free networks than on random networks. This is because the hub nodes of scale-free networks are more inclined to take self-vaccination after balancing the pros and cons. This result is encouraging as it indicates that real-world networks, which are often claimed to be scale free, can be favorably and easily controlled under voluntary vaccination. Our work provides a way of understanding how to prevent the outbreak of diseases under voluntary vaccination, and is expected to provide valuable information on effective disease control and appropriate decision-making.

  2. Feeder density enhances house finch disease transmission in experimental epidemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moyers, Sahnzi C; Adelman, James S; Farine, Damien R; Thomason, Courtney A; Hawley, Dana M

    2018-05-05

    Anthropogenic food provisioning of wildlife can alter the frequency of contacts among hosts and between hosts and environmental sources of pathogens. Despite the popularity of garden bird feeding, few studies have addressed how feeders influence host contact rates and disease dynamics. We experimentally manipulated feeder density in replicate aviaries containing captive, pathogen-naive, groups of house finches ( Haemorhous mexicanus ) and continuously tracked behaviours at feeders using radio-frequency identification devices. We then inoculated one bird per group with Mycoplasma gallisepticum (Mg), a common bacterial pathogen for which feeders are fomites of transmission, and assessed effects of feeder density on house finch behaviour and pathogen transmission. We found that pathogen transmission was significantly higher in groups with the highest density of bird feeders, despite a significantly lower rate of intraspecific aggressive interactions relative to the low feeder density groups. Conversely, among naive group members that never showed signs of disease, we saw significantly higher concentrations of Mg-specific antibodies in low feeder density groups, suggesting that birds in low feeder density treatments had exposure to subclinical doses of Mg. We discuss ways in which the density of garden bird feeders could play an important role in mediating the intensity of Mg epidemics.This article is part of the theme issue 'Anthropogenic resource subsidies and host-parasite dynamics in wildlife'. © 2018 The Author(s).

  3. Horizontal antimicrobial resistance transfer drives epidemics of multiple Shigella species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, Kate S; Dallman, Timothy J; Field, Nigel; Childs, Tristan; Mitchell, Holly; Day, Martin; Weill, François-Xavier; Lefèvre, Sophie; Tourdjman, Mathieu; Hughes, Gwenda; Jenkins, Claire; Thomson, Nicholas

    2018-04-13

    Horizontal gene transfer has played a role in developing the global public health crisis of antimicrobial resistance (AMR). However, the dynamics of AMR transfer through bacterial populations and its direct impact on human disease is poorly elucidated. Here, we study parallel epidemic emergences of multiple Shigella species, a priority AMR organism, in men who have sex with men to gain insight into AMR emergence and spread. Using genomic epidemiology, we show that repeated horizontal transfer of a single AMR plasmid among Shigella enhanced existing and facilitated new epidemics. These epidemic patterns contrasted with slighter, slower increases in disease caused by organisms with vertically inherited (chromosomally encoded) AMR. This demonstrates that horizontal transfer of AMR directly affects epidemiological outcomes of globally important AMR pathogens and highlights the need for integration of genomic analyses into all areas of AMR research, surveillance and management.

  4. Application of non-structural protein antibody tests in substantiating freedom from foot-and-mouth disease virus infection after emergency vaccination of cattle.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Paton, D.J.; Clerq, De K.; Greiner, M.; Dekker, A.; Brocchi, E.; Bergmann, I.E.; Sammin, D.J.; Gubbins, S.; Parida, S.

    2006-01-01

    There has been much debate about the use of the so-called ¿vaccinate-to-live¿ policy for the control of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in Europe, according to which, spread of the FMD virus (FMDV) from future outbreaks could be controlled by a short period of ¿emergency¿ vaccination of surrounding

  5. KAJIAN LITERATUR: MANAKAH YANG LEBIH EFEKTIF? TRADITIONAL WORD OF MOUTH ATAU ELECTRONIC WORD OF MOUTH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Putu Adriani Prayustika

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Word of Mouth telah diakui sebagai salah satu strategi komunikasi yang paling efektif dalam transisi informasi perusahaan kepada konsumen. Perusahaan memanfaatkan komunikasi word of mouth untuk kepentingan pemasaran produk dan layanan. Namun, komunikasi WOM konvensional hanya efektif dalam batasan kontak sosial terbatas. Kemajuan teknologi informasi dan munculnya situs jaringan sosial online telah mengubah cara informasi ditransmisikan dan telah melampaui keterbatasan tradisional WOM. Komunikasi word of mouth dengan memanfaatkan teknologi ini sering disebut electronic word of mouth (eWOM, dimana komunikasi ini memanfaatkan media baru, seperti misalnya media sosial. Makalah ini akan membahas kajian literatur dari beberapa penelitian yang telah dilakukan sebelumnya dalam membandingkan efektivitas traditional word of mouth dan electronic word of mouth. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa secara umum dapat dikatakan dengan perkembangan teknologi seperti sekarang, eWOM jauh lebih efektif daripada traditional WOM.

  6. Molecular Mechanisms of Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus Targeting the Host Antiviral Response.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodríguez Pulido, Miguel; Sáiz, Margarita

    2017-01-01

    Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) is the causative agent of an acute vesicular disease affecting pigs, cattle and other domestic, and wild animals worldwide. The aim of the host interferon (IFN) response is to limit viral replication and spread. Detection of the viral genome and products by specialized cellular sensors initiates a signaling cascade that leads to a rapid antiviral response involving the secretion of type I- and type III-IFNs and other antiviral cytokines with antiproliferative and immunomodulatory functions. During co-evolution with their hosts, viruses have acquired strategies to actively counteract host antiviral responses and the balance between innate response and viral antagonism may determine the outcome of disease and pathogenesis. FMDV proteases Lpro and 3C have been found to antagonize the host IFN response by a repertoire of mechanisms. Moreover, the putative role of other viral proteins in IFN antagonism is being recently unveiled, uncovering sophisticated immune evasion strategies different to those reported to date for other members of the Picornaviridae family. Here, we review the interplay between antiviral responses induced by FMDV infection and viral countermeasures to block them. Research on strategies used by viruses to modulate immunity will provide insights into the function of host pathways involved in defense against pathogens and will also lead to development of new therapeutic strategies to fight virus infections.

  7. Invited review: Epidemics on social networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. N. Kuperman

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Since its first formulations almost a century ago, mathematical models fordisease spreading contributed to understand, evaluate and control the epidemic processes.They promoted a dramatic change in how epidemiologists thought of the propagation of infectious diseases.In the last decade, when the traditional epidemiological models seemed to be exhausted, new types of models were developed.These new models incorporated concepts from graph theory to describe and model the underlying social structure.Many of these works merely produced a more detailed extension of the previous results, but some otherstriggered a completely new paradigm in the mathematical study of epidemic processes. In this review, we will introduce the basicconcepts of epidemiology, epidemic modeling and networks, to finally provide a brief description of the mostrelevant results in the field.Received: 6 April 2013, Accepted: 3 June 2013; Edited by: G. Mindlin; DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.4279/PIP.050003Cite as: M N Kuperman, Papers in Physics 5, 050003 (2013

  8. Climate drives the meningitis epidemics onset in west Africa.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benjamin Sultan

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Every year West African countries within the Sahelo-Sudanian band are afflicted with major meningococcal meningitis (MCM disease outbreaks, which affect up to 200,000 people, mainly young children, in one of the world's poorest regions. The timing of the epidemic year, which starts in February and ends in late May, and the spatial distribution of disease cases throughout the "Meningitis Belt" strongly indicate a close linkage between the life cycle of the causative agent of MCM and climate variability. However, mechanisms responsible for the observed patterns are still not clearly identified. METHODS AND FINDINGS: By comparing the information on cases and deaths of MCM from World Health Organization weekly reports with atmospheric datasets, we quantified the relationship between the seasonal occurrence of MCM in Mali, a West African country, and large-scale atmospheric circulation. Regional atmospheric indexes based on surface wind speed show a clear link between population dynamics of the disease and climate: the onset of epidemics and the winter maximum defined by the atmospheric index share the same mean week (sixth week of the year; standard deviation, 2 wk and are highly correlated. CONCLUSIONS: This study is the first that provides a clear, quantitative demonstration of the connections that exist between MCM epidemics and regional climate variability in Africa. Moreover, this statistically robust explanation of the MCM dynamics enables the development of an Early Warning Index for meningitis epidemic onset in West Africa. The development of such an index will undoubtedly help nationwide and international public health institutions and policy makers to better control MCM disease within the so-called westward-eastward pan-African Meningitis Belt.

  9. Equal Graph Partitioning on Estimated Infection Network as an Effective Epidemic Mitigation Measure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hadidjojo, Jeremy; Cheong, Siew Ann

    2011-01-01

    Controlling severe outbreaks remains the most important problem in infectious disease area. With time, this problem will only become more severe as population density in urban centers grows. Social interactions play a very important role in determining how infectious diseases spread, and organization of people along social lines gives rise to non-spatial networks in which the infections spread. Infection networks are different for diseases with different transmission modes, but are likely to be identical or highly similar for diseases that spread the same way. Hence, infection networks estimated from common infections can be useful to contain epidemics of a more severe disease with the same transmission mode. Here we present a proof-of-concept study demonstrating the effectiveness of epidemic mitigation based on such estimated infection networks. We first generate artificial social networks of different sizes and average degrees, but with roughly the same clustering characteristic. We then start SIR epidemics on these networks, censor the simulated incidences, and use them to reconstruct the infection network. We then efficiently fragment the estimated network by removing the smallest number of nodes identified by a graph partitioning algorithm. Finally, we demonstrate the effectiveness of this targeted strategy, by comparing it against traditional untargeted strategies, in slowing down and reducing the size of advancing epidemics. PMID:21799777

  10. Epidemic cholera in Latin America: spread and routes of transmission.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guthmann, J P

    1995-12-01

    In the most recent epidemic of cholera in Latin America, nearly a million cases were reported and almost 9000 people died between January 1991 and December 1993. The epidemic spread rapidly from country to country, affecting in three years all the countries of Latin America except Uruguay and the Caribbean. Case-control studies carried out in Peru showed a significant association between drinking water and risk of disease. Cholera was associated with the consumption of unwashed fruit and vegetables, with eating food from street vendors and with contaminated crabmeat transported in travellers' luggage. This article documents the spread of the epidemic and its routes of transmission and discusses whether the introduction of the epidemic to Peru and its subsequent spread throughout the continent could have been prevented.

  11. Parameter values for epidemiological models of foot-and-mouth disease in swine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amy C Kinsley

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available In the event of a foot-and-mouth disease (FMD incursion, response strategies are required to control, contain and eradicate the pathogen as efficiently as possible. Infectious disease simulation models are widely used tools that mimic disease dispersion in a population and that can be useful in the design and support of prevention and mitigation activities. However, there are often gaps in evidence-based research to supply models with quantities that are necessary to accurately reflect the system of interest. The objective of this study was to quantify values associated with the duration of the stages of FMD infection (latent period, subclinical period, incubation period, and duration of infection, probability of transmission (within-herd and between-herd via spatial spread, and diagnosis of a vesicular disease within a herd using a meta-analysis of the peer-reviewed literature and expert opinion. The latent period ranged from 1 to 7 days and incubation period ranged from 1 to 9 day; both were influenced by strain. In contrast, the subclinical period ranged from 0 to 6 days and was influenced by sampling method only. The duration of infection ranged from 1 to 10 days. The probability of spatial spread between an infected and fully susceptible swine farm was estimated as greatest within 5 km of the infected farm, highlighting the importance of possible long-range transmission through the movement of infected animals. Lastly, while most swine practitioners are confident in their ability to detect a vesicular disease in an average sized swine herd, a small proportion expect that up to half of the herd would need to show clinical signs before detection via passive surveillance would occur. The results of this study will be useful in within- and between-herd simulation models to develop efficient response strategies in the event an FMD in swine populations of disease-free countries or regions.

  12. Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Epidemic Phenomena Using the R Package surveillance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sebastian Meyer

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available The availability of geocoded health data and the inherent temporal structure of communicable diseases have led to an increased interest in statistical models and software for spatio-temporal data with epidemic features. The open source R package surveillance can handle various levels of aggregation at which infective events have been recorded: individual-level time-stamped geo-referenced data (case reports in either continuous space or discrete space, as well as counts aggregated by period and region. For each of these data types, the surveillance package implements tools for visualization, likelihoood inference and simulation from recently developed statistical regression frameworks capturing endemic and epidemic dynamics. Altogether, this paper is a guide to the spatio-temporal modeling of epidemic phenomena, exemplified by analyses of public health surveillance data on measles and invasive meningococcal disease.

  13. Computational algebraic geometry of epidemic models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodríguez Vega, Martín.

    2014-06-01

    Computational Algebraic Geometry is applied to the analysis of various epidemic models for Schistosomiasis and Dengue, both, for the case without control measures and for the case where control measures are applied. The models were analyzed using the mathematical software Maple. Explicitly the analysis is performed using Groebner basis, Hilbert dimension and Hilbert polynomials. These computational tools are included automatically in Maple. Each of these models is represented by a system of ordinary differential equations, and for each model the basic reproductive number (R0) is calculated. The effects of the control measures are observed by the changes in the algebraic structure of R0, the changes in Groebner basis, the changes in Hilbert dimension, and the changes in Hilbert polynomials. It is hoped that the results obtained in this paper become of importance for designing control measures against the epidemic diseases described. For future researches it is proposed the use of algebraic epidemiology to analyze models for airborne and waterborne diseases.

  14. On the Use of Human Mobility Proxies for Modeling Epidemics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tizzoni, Michele; Bajardi, Paolo; Decuyper, Adeline; Kon Kam King, Guillaume; Schneider, Christian M.; Blondel, Vincent; Smoreda, Zbigniew; González, Marta C.; Colizza, Vittoria

    2014-01-01

    Human mobility is a key component of large-scale spatial-transmission models of infectious diseases. Correctly modeling and quantifying human mobility is critical for improving epidemic control, but may be hindered by data incompleteness or unavailability. Here we explore the opportunity of using proxies for individual mobility to describe commuting flows and predict the diffusion of an influenza-like-illness epidemic. We consider three European countries and the corresponding commuting networks at different resolution scales, obtained from (i) official census surveys, (ii) proxy mobility data extracted from mobile phone call records, and (iii) the radiation model calibrated with census data. Metapopulation models defined on these countries and integrating the different mobility layers are compared in terms of epidemic observables. We show that commuting networks from mobile phone data capture the empirical commuting patterns well, accounting for more than 87% of the total fluxes. The distributions of commuting fluxes per link from mobile phones and census sources are similar and highly correlated, however a systematic overestimation of commuting traffic in the mobile phone data is observed. This leads to epidemics that spread faster than on census commuting networks, once the mobile phone commuting network is considered in the epidemic model, however preserving to a high degree the order of infection of newly affected locations. Proxies' calibration affects the arrival times' agreement across different models, and the observed topological and traffic discrepancies among mobility sources alter the resulting epidemic invasion patterns. Results also suggest that proxies perform differently in approximating commuting patterns for disease spread at different resolution scales, with the radiation model showing higher accuracy than mobile phone data when the seed is central in the network, the opposite being observed for peripheral locations. Proxies should therefore be

  15. The spatiotemporal trajectory of a dengue epidemic in a medium-sized city

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniela G Morato

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Understanding the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases is important to allow for improvements of control measures. To investigate the spatiotemporal pattern of an epidemic dengue occurred at a medium-sized city in the Northeast Region of Brazil in 2009, we conducted an ecological study of the notified dengue cases georeferenced according to epidemiological week (EW and home address. Kernel density estimation and space-time interaction were analysed using the Knox method. The evolution of the epidemic was analysed using an animated projection technique. The dengue incidence was 6.918.7/100,000 inhabitants; the peak of the epidemic occurred from 8 February-1 March, EWs 6-9 (828.7/100,000 inhabitants. There were cases throughout the city and was identified space-time interaction. Three epicenters were responsible for spreading the disease in an expansion and relocation diffusion pattern. If the health services could detect in real time the epicenters and apply nimbly control measures, may possibly reduce the magnitude of dengue epidemics.

  16. Characterization of foot- and mouth disease virus antigen by surface-enhanced laser desorption ionization-time of flight-mass spectrometry in aqueous and oil-emulsion formulations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Harmsen, M.M.; Jansen, J.; Westra, D.F.; Coco-Martin, J.M.

    2010-01-01

    We have used a novel method, surface-enhanced laser desorption ionization-time of flight-mass spectrometry (SELDI-TOF-MS), to characterize foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) vaccine antigens. Using specific capture with FMDV binding recombinant antibody fragments and tryptic digestion of FMDV

  17. Novel reverse transcription loop-mediated isothermal amplification for rapid detection of foot-and-mouth disease virus

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dukes, J.P.; King, D.P.; Alexandersen, Søren

    2006-01-01

    Speed is paramount in the diagnosis of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) and simplicity is required if a test is to be deployed in the field. The development of a one-step, reverse transcription loop-mediated amplification (RT-LAMP) assay enables FMD virus (FMDV) to be detected in under an hour...... in a single tube without thermal cycling. A fragment of the 3D RNA polymerase gene of the virus is amplified at 65 degrees C in the presence of a primer mixture and both reverse transcriptase and Bst DNA polymerase. Compared with real-time RT-PCR, RT-LAMP was consistently faster, and ten copies of FMDV...... vesicular diseases and from that of genetically related picornaviruses. Diagnostic sensitivity was validated by the amplification of reference FMDV strains and archival material from field cases of FMD. In comparison with the performance of the established diagnostic TaqMan (R) assay, RT-LAMP appears...

  18. Rainfall mediations in the spreading of epidemic cholera

    Science.gov (United States)

    Righetto, L.; Bertuzzo, E.; Mari, L.; Schild, E.; Casagrandi, R.; Gatto, M.; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.; Rinaldo, A.

    2013-10-01

    Following the empirical evidence of a clear correlation between rainfall events and cholera resurgence that was observed in particular during the recent outbreak in Haiti, a spatially explicit model of epidemic cholera is re-examined. Specifically, we test a multivariate Poisson rainfall generator, with parameters varying in space and time, as a driver of enhanced disease transmission. The relevance of the issue relates to the key insight that predictive mathematical models may provide into the course of an ongoing cholera epidemic aiding emergency management (say, in allocating life-saving supplies or health care staff) or in evaluating alternative management strategies. Our model consists of a set of dynamical equations (SIRB-like i.e. subdivided into the compartments of Susceptible, Infected and Recovered individuals, and including a balance of Bacterial concentrations in the water reservoir) describing a connected network of human communities where the infection results from the exposure to excess concentrations of pathogens in the water. These, in turn, are driven by rainfall washout of open-air defecation sites or cesspool overflows, hydrologic transport through waterways and by mobility of susceptible and infected individuals. We perform an a posteriori analysis (from the beginning of the epidemic in October 2010 until December 2011) to test the model reliability in predicting cholera cases and in testing control measures, involving vaccination and sanitation campaigns, for the ongoing epidemic. Even though predicting reliably the timing of the epidemic resurgence proves difficult due to rainfall inter-annual variability, we find that the model can reasonably quantify the total number of reported infection cases in the selected time-span. We then run a multi-seasonal prediction of the course of the epidemic until December 2015, to investigate conditions for further resurgences and endemicity of cholera in the region with a view to policies which may bring to

  19. The SIS Model of Epidemic Spreading in a Hierarchical Social Network

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grabowski, A.; Kosinski, R.A.

    2005-01-01

    The phenomenon of epidemic spreading in a population with a hierarchical structure of interpersonal interactions is described and investigated numerically. The SIS model with temporal immunity to a disease and a time of incubation is used. In our model spatial localization of individuals belonging to different social groups, effectiveness of different interpersonal interactions and the mobility of a contemporary community are taken into account. The structure of interpersonal connections is based on a scale-free network. The influence of the structure of the social network on typical relations characterizing the spreading process, like a range of epidemic and epidemic curves, is discussed. The probability that endemic state occurs is also calculated. Surprisingly it occurs, that less contagious diseases has greater chance to survive. The influence of preventive vaccinations on the spreading process is investigated and critical range of vaccinations that is sufficient for the suppression of an epidemic is calculated. Our results of numerical calculations are compared with the solutions of the master equation for the spreading process, and good agreement is found. (author)

  20. Retrospective Analysis of the 2014–2015 Ebola Epidemic in Liberia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atkins, Katherine E.; Pandey, Abhishek; Wenzel, Natasha S.; Skrip, Laura; Yamin, Dan; Nyenswah, Tolbert G.; Fallah, Mosoka; Bawo, Luke; Medlock, Jan; Altice, Frederick L.; Townsend, Jeffrey; Ndeffo-Mbah, Martial L.; Galvani, Alison P.

    2016-01-01

    The 2014–2015 Ebola epidemic has been the most protracted and devastating in the history of the disease. To prevent future outbreaks on this scale, it is imperative to understand the reasons that led to eventual disease control. Here, we evaluated the shifts of Ebola dynamics at national and local scales during the epidemic in Liberia. We used a transmission model calibrated to epidemiological data between June 9 and December 31, 2014, to estimate the extent of community and hospital transmission. We found that despite varied local epidemic patterns, community transmission was reduced by 40–80% in all the counties analyzed. Our model suggests that the tapering of the epidemic was achieved through reductions in community transmission, rather than accumulation of immune individuals through asymptomatic infection and unreported cases. Although the times at which this transmission reduction occurred in the majority of the Liberian counties started before any large expansion in hospital capacity and the distribution of home protection kits, it remains difficult to associate the presence of interventions with reductions in Ebola incidence. PMID:26928839

  1. Epidemic spreading in weighted scale-free networks with community structure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chu, Xiangwei; Guan, Jihong; Zhang, Zhongzhi; Zhou, Shuigeng

    2009-01-01

    Many empirical studies reveal that the weights and community structure are ubiquitous in various natural and artificial networks. In this paper, based on the SI disease model, we investigate the epidemic spreading in weighted scale-free networks with community structure. Two exponents, α and β, are introduced to weight the internal edges and external edges, respectively; and a tunable probability parameter q is also introduced to adjust the strength of community structure. We find the external weighting exponent β plays a much more important role in slackening the epidemic spreading and reducing the danger brought by the epidemic than the internal weighting exponent α. Moreover, a novel result we find is that the strong community structure is no longer helpful for slackening the danger brought by the epidemic in the weighted cases. In addition, we show the hierarchical dynamics of the epidemic spreading in the weighted scale-free networks with communities which is also displayed in the famous BA scale-free networks

  2. Combined treatments of heat, irradiation, and pH effects on infectivity of foot-and-mouth disease virus in bovine tissues

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lasta, J.; Blackwell, J.H.; Sadir, A.; Gallinger, M.; Marcoveccio, F.; Zamorano, M.; Ludden, B.; Rodriguez, R.

    1992-01-01

    Various traditional methods for processing meat products were examined for their virucidal effects on the A, O, and C serotypes of foot-and-mouth disease virus. Aging, curing, heating at 78 degrees C for 20 min or irradiation (1.5 Mrad, 2.4 Mrad) that did not alter the sensory characteristics of the product were used singly or in combination. The only processing treatment that was virucidal was the combination of heat and gamma irradiation

  3. Modeling sheep pox disease from the 1994-1998 epidemic in Evros Prefecture, Greece.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malesios, C; Demiris, N; Abas, Z; Dadousis, K; Koutroumanidis, T

    2014-10-01

    Sheep pox is a highly transmissible disease which can cause serious loss of livestock and can therefore have major economic impact. We present data from sheep pox epidemics which occurred between 1994 and 1998. The data include weekly records of infected farms as well as a number of covariates. We implement Bayesian stochastic regression models which, in addition to various explanatory variables like seasonal and environmental/meteorological factors, also contain serial correlation structure based on variants of the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. We take a predictive view in model selection by utilizing deviance-based measures. The results indicate that seasonality and the number of infected farms are important predictors for sheep pox incidence. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Steady States in SIRS Epidemical Model of Mobile Individuals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Duanming; He Minhua; Yu Xiaoling; Pan Guijun; Sun Hongzhang; Su Xiangying; Sun Fan; Yin Yanping; Li Rui; Liu Dan

    2006-01-01

    We consider an epidemical model within socially interacting mobile individuals to study the behaviors of steady states of epidemic propagation in 2D networks. Using mean-field approximation and large scale simulations, we recover the usual epidemic behavior with critical thresholds δ c and p c below which infectious disease dies out. For the population density δ far above δ c , it is found that there is linear relationship between contact rate λ and the population density δ in the main. At the same time, the result obtained from mean-field approximation is compared with our numerical result, and it is found that these two results are similar by and large but not completely the same.

  5. Steady States in SIRS Epidemical Model of Mobile Individuals

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHANG Duan-Ming; LIU Dan; HE Min-Hua; YU Xiao-Ling; PAN Gui-Jun; SUN Hong-Zhang; SU Xiang-Ying; SUN Fan; YIN Yan-Ping; LI Rui

    2006-01-01

    We consider an epidemical model within socially interacting mobile individuals to study the behaviors of steady statesof epidemic propagation in 2D networks. Using mean-field approximation and large scale simulations, we recover the usual epidemic behavior with critical thresholds δc and pc below which infectious disease dies out. For the population density δ far above δc, it is found that there is linear relationship between contact rate λ and the population density δ in the main. At the same time, the result obtained from mean-field approximation is compared with our numerical result, and it is found that these two results are similar by and large but not completely the same.

  6. Multidimensional epidemic thresholds in diffusion processes over interdependent networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salehi, Mostafa; Siyari, Payam; Magnani, Matteo; Montesi, Danilo

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: •We propose a new concept of multidimensional epidemic threshold for interdependent networks. •We analytically derive and numerically illustrate the conditions for multilayer epidemics. •We study the evolution of infection density and diffusion dynamics. -- Abstract: Several systems can be modeled as sets of interdependent networks where each network contains distinct nodes. Diffusion processes like the spreading of a disease or the propagation of information constitute fundamental phenomena occurring over such coupled networks. In this paper we propose a new concept of multidimensional epidemic threshold characterizing diffusion processes over interdependent networks, allowing different diffusion rates on the different networks and arbitrary degree distributions. We analytically derive and numerically illustrate the conditions for multilayer epidemics, i.e., the appearance of a giant connected component spanning all the networks. Furthermore, we study the evolution of infection density and diffusion dynamics with extensive simulation experiments on synthetic and real networks

  7. Community Size Effects on Epidemic Spreading in Multiplex Social Networks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ting Liu

    Full Text Available The dynamical process of epidemic spreading has drawn much attention of the complex network community. In the network paradigm, diseases spread from one person to another through the social ties amongst the population. There are a variety of factors that govern the processes of disease spreading on the networks. A common but not negligible factor is people's reaction to the outbreak of epidemics. Such reaction can be related information dissemination or self-protection. In this work, we explore the interactions between disease spreading and population response in terms of information diffusion and individuals' alertness. We model the system by mapping multiplex networks into two-layer networks and incorporating individuals' risk awareness, on the assumption that their response to the disease spreading depends on the size of the community they belong to. By comparing the final incidence of diseases in multiplex networks, we find that there is considerable mitigation of diseases spreading for full phase of spreading speed when individuals' protection responses are introduced. Interestingly, the degree of community overlap between the two layers is found to be critical factor that affects the final incidence. We also analyze the consequences of the epidemic incidence in communities with different sizes and the impacts of community overlap between two layers. Specifically, as the diseases information makes individuals alert and take measures to prevent the diseases, the effective protection is more striking in small community. These phenomena can be explained by the multiplexity of the networked system and the competition between two spreading processes.

  8. Community Size Effects on Epidemic Spreading in Multiplex Social Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Ting; Li, Ping; Chen, Yan; Zhang, Jie

    2016-01-01

    The dynamical process of epidemic spreading has drawn much attention of the complex network community. In the network paradigm, diseases spread from one person to another through the social ties amongst the population. There are a variety of factors that govern the processes of disease spreading on the networks. A common but not negligible factor is people's reaction to the outbreak of epidemics. Such reaction can be related information dissemination or self-protection. In this work, we explore the interactions between disease spreading and population response in terms of information diffusion and individuals' alertness. We model the system by mapping multiplex networks into two-layer networks and incorporating individuals' risk awareness, on the assumption that their response to the disease spreading depends on the size of the community they belong to. By comparing the final incidence of diseases in multiplex networks, we find that there is considerable mitigation of diseases spreading for full phase of spreading speed when individuals' protection responses are introduced. Interestingly, the degree of community overlap between the two layers is found to be critical factor that affects the final incidence. We also analyze the consequences of the epidemic incidence in communities with different sizes and the impacts of community overlap between two layers. Specifically, as the diseases information makes individuals alert and take measures to prevent the diseases, the effective protection is more striking in small community. These phenomena can be explained by the multiplexity of the networked system and the competition between two spreading processes.

  9. Social epidemics in the aftermath of disasters.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    IJzermans, C.J.

    2002-01-01

    Issue/problem: After disasters, terrorist attacks and wars social epidemics of medically unexplained physical symptoms/syndromes (ups) are often seen. In modern times people feel more vulnerable and especially under pressure of those incidents, everyday symptoms are interpreted as disease and

  10. GENERAL: Epidemic spreading on networks with vaccination

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Hong-Jing; Duan, Zhi-Sheng; Chen, Guan-Rong; Li, Rong

    2009-08-01

    In this paper, a new susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model on complex networks with imperfect vaccination is proposed. Two types of epidemic spreading patterns (the recovered individuals have or have not immunity) on scale-free networks are discussed. Both theoretical and numerical analyses are presented. The epidemic thresholds related to the vaccination rate, the vaccination-invalid rate and the vaccination success rate on scale-free networks are demonstrated, showing different results from the reported observations. This reveals that whether or not the epidemic can spread over a network under vaccination control is determined not only by the network structure but also by the medicine's effective duration. Moreover, for a given infective rate, the proportion of individuals to vaccinate can be calculated theoretically for the case that the recovered nodes have immunity. Finally, simulated results are presented to show how to control the disease prevalence.

  11. Capsid coding sequences of foot-and-mouth disease viruses are determinants of pathogenicity in pigs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lohse, Louise; Jackson, Terry; Bøtner, Anette

    2012-01-01

    The surface exposed capsid proteins, VP1, VP2 and VP3, of foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) determine its antigenicity and the ability of the virus to interact with host-cell receptors. Hence, modification of these structural proteins may alter the properties of the virus. In the present study we...... compared the pathogenicity of different FMDVs in young pigs. In total 32 pigs, 7-weeks-old, were exposed to virus, either by direct inoculation or through contact with inoculated pigs, using cell culture adapted (O1K B64), chimeric (O1K/A-TUR and O1K/O-UKG) or field strain (O-UKG/34/2001) viruses. The O1K...... coding sequences are determinants of FMDV pathogenicity in pigs....

  12. Interplay between the local information based behavioral responses and the epidemic spreading in complex networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Can; Xie, Jia-Rong; Chen, Han-Shuang; Zhang, Hai-Feng; Tang, Ming

    2015-10-01

    The spreading of an infectious disease can trigger human behavior responses to the disease, which in turn plays a crucial role on the spreading of epidemic. In this study, to illustrate the impacts of the human behavioral responses, a new class of individuals, S(F), is introduced to the classical susceptible-infected-recovered model. In the model, S(F) state represents that susceptible individuals who take self-initiate protective measures to lower the probability of being infected, and a susceptible individual may go to S(F) state with a response rate when contacting an infectious neighbor. Via the percolation method, the theoretical formulas for the epidemic threshold as well as the prevalence of epidemic are derived. Our finding indicates that, with the increasing of the response rate, the epidemic threshold is enhanced and the prevalence of epidemic is reduced. The analytical results are also verified by the numerical simulations. In addition, we demonstrate that, because the mean field method neglects the dynamic correlations, a wrong result based on the mean field method is obtained-the epidemic threshold is not related to the response rate, i.e., the additional S(F) state has no impact on the epidemic threshold.

  13. Understanding the power of word-of-mouth.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suzana Z. Gildin

    2003-06-01

    Full Text Available Word-of-mouth has been considered one of the most powerful forms of communication in the market today. Understanding what makes word-of-mouth such a persuasive and powerful communication tool is important to organizations that intend to build strong relationships with consumers. For this reason, organizations are concerned about promoting positive word-of-mouth and retarding negative word-of-mouth, which can be harmful to the image of the company or a brand. This work focuses on the major aspects involving word-of-mouth communication. Recommendations to generate positive word-of-mouth and retard negative word-of-mouth are also highlighted.

  14. The use of gamification in the teaching of disease epidemics and pandemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, L A; Turner, I J; Sweet, M J

    2018-06-01

    With the launch of the teaching excellence framework, teaching in higher education (HE) is under greater scrutiny than ever before. Didactic lecture delivery is still a core element of many HE programmes but there is now a greater expectation for academics to incorporate alternative approaches into their practice to increase student engagement. These approaches may include a large array of techniques from group activities, problem-based learning, practical experience and mock scenarios to newly emerging approaches such as flipped learning practices and the use of gamification. These participatory forms of learning encourage students to become more absorbed within a topic that may otherwise be seen as rather 'dry' and reduce students engagement with, and therefore retention of, material. Here we use participatory-based teaching approaches in microbiology as an example to illustrate to University undergraduate students the potentially devastating effects that a disease can have on a population. The 'threat' that diseases may pose and the manner in which they may spread and/or evolve can be challenging to communicate, especially in relation to the timescales associated with these factors in the case of an epidemic or pandemic.

  15. Knowledge and disease management skills of cattle owners on East Coast Fever and Foot and Mouth Disease in Kazungula and Livingstone Districts of Zambia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chisembele, C.

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Effective animal disease control and prevention should be based on accurate information from the field. Part of this field information can be obtained from the cattle owners. In order to assess their disease knowledge, a survey focusing on East Coast Fever (ECF and Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD was organised among 302 cattle owners from the Kazungula and Livingstone Districts of the Southern Province of Zambia. The cattle owners' level of knowledge of ECF was low (34% with most of those able to describe the disease belonging to the endemic zone where ECF caused high death rates in cattle. A larger proportion of the cattle owners (46% were able to give an adequate description of FMD symptoms. It reached up to 61% in the FMD high-risk zone. Reporting to the animal health service providers appeared to be low. The results of the survey showed that attempts should be made to improve the cattle owners' knowledge and response to important diseases by carrying out more extension and sensitization activities. This is especially so in areas of low infection or where the disease was experienced long time ago.

  16. Efficient local behavioral-change strategies to reduce the spread of epidemics in networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bu, Yilei; Gregory, Steve; Mills, Harriet L.

    2013-10-01

    It has recently become established that the spread of infectious diseases between humans is affected not only by the pathogen itself but also by changes in behavior as the population becomes aware of the epidemic, for example, social distancing. It is also well known that community structure (the existence of relatively densely connected groups of vertices) in contact networks influences the spread of disease. We propose a set of local strategies for social distancing, based on community structure, that can be employed in the event of an epidemic to reduce the epidemic size. Unlike most social distancing methods, ours do not require individuals to know the disease state (infected or susceptible, etc.) of others, and we do not make the unrealistic assumption that the structure of the entire contact network is known. Instead, the recommended behavior change is based only on an individual's local view of the network. Each individual avoids contact with a fraction of his/her contacts, using knowledge of his/her local network to decide which contacts should be avoided. If the behavior change occurs only when an individual becomes ill or aware of the disease, these strategies can substantially reduce epidemic size with a relatively small cost, measured by the number of contacts avoided.

  17. Sequences outside that of residues 93-102 of 3A protein can contribute to the ability of foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) to replicate in bovine-derived cells.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Xueqing; Li, Pinghua; Bai, Xingwen; Sun, Pu; Bao, Huifang; Lu, Zengjun; Cao, Yimei; Li, Dong; Chen, Yingli; Qiao, Zilin; Liu, Zaixin

    2014-10-13

    Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious and economically devastating disease of cloven-hoofed animals. During 2010 and 2011, there was an epidemic of the Mya-98 lineage of the Southeast Asia (SEA) topotype in East Asia, including China. Changes in the FMDV 3A protein have been previously reported to be associated with the inability of FMDV to grow in bovine cells and cause disease in cattle. In this paper, we report the generation of a full-length infectious cDNA clone of FMDV O/SEA/Mya-98 strain O/GZSB/2011 for the first time along with two genetically modified viruses with deletion at positions 93-102 and 133-143 in 3A based on the established infectious clone. All the recombinant viruses grew well and displayed growth properties and plaque phenotypes similar to those of the parental virus in baby hamster kidney (BHK-21) cells, porcine kidney (PK-15) cells, and primary fetal porcine kidney (FPK) cells. While the recombinant viruses rvGZSB and rvSBΔ133-143 exhibited similar growth properties and plaque phenotypes with the parental virus in primary fetal bovine kidney (FBK) cells, the recombinant virus rvSBΔ93-102, containing deletion at positions 93-102 in 3A, grew at a slower rate and had a smaller plaque size phenotype in FBK cells than that of the parental virus. Therefore, the results suggest that the deletion at positions 93-102 of 3A protein does not affect FMDV replication efficiency in BHK-21, PK-15 and FPK cells, but affects virus replication efficiency in FBK cells, although, cannot alone account for the inability to replicate in bovine cells. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Stochastic Processes in Epidemic Theory

    CERN Document Server

    Lefèvre, Claude; Picard, Philippe

    1990-01-01

    This collection of papers gives a representative cross-selectional view of recent developments in the field. After a survey paper by C. Lefèvre, 17 other research papers look at stochastic modeling of epidemics, both from a theoretical and a statistical point of view. Some look more specifically at a particular disease such as AIDS, malaria, schistosomiasis and diabetes.

  19. Evolution of scaling emergence in large-scale spatial epidemic spreading.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Lin; Li, Xiang; Zhang, Yi-Qing; Zhang, Yan; Zhang, Kan

    2011-01-01

    Zipf's law and Heaps' law are two representatives of the scaling concepts, which play a significant role in the study of complexity science. The coexistence of the Zipf's law and the Heaps' law motivates different understandings on the dependence between these two scalings, which has still hardly been clarified. In this article, we observe an evolution process of the scalings: the Zipf's law and the Heaps' law are naturally shaped to coexist at the initial time, while the crossover comes with the emergence of their inconsistency at the larger time before reaching a stable state, where the Heaps' law still exists with the disappearance of strict Zipf's law. Such findings are illustrated with a scenario of large-scale spatial epidemic spreading, and the empirical results of pandemic disease support a universal analysis of the relation between the two laws regardless of the biological details of disease. Employing the United States domestic air transportation and demographic data to construct a metapopulation model for simulating the pandemic spread at the U.S. country level, we uncover that the broad heterogeneity of the infrastructure plays a key role in the evolution of scaling emergence. The analyses of large-scale spatial epidemic spreading help understand the temporal evolution of scalings, indicating the coexistence of the Zipf's law and the Heaps' law depends on the collective dynamics of epidemic processes, and the heterogeneity of epidemic spread indicates the significance of performing targeted containment strategies at the early time of a pandemic disease.

  20. Epidemiology and vaccine of porcine epidemic diarrhea virus in China: a mini-review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Dongbo; Wang, Xinyu; Wei, Shan; Chen, Jianfei; Feng, Li

    2016-03-01

    Porcine epidemic diarrhea (PED) is an intestinal infectious disease caused by porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV); manifestations of the disease are diarrhea, vomiting and dehydration. Starting from the end of 2010, a PED outbreak occurred in several pig-producing provinces in southern China. Subsequently, the disease spread throughout the country and caused enormous economic losses to the pork industry. Accumulating studies demonstrated that new PEDV variants that appeared in China were responsible for the PED outbreak. In the current mini-review, we summarize PEDV epidemiology and vaccination in China.