WorldWideScience

Sample records for monthly temperatures extremes

  1. Temperature extremes and infant mortality in Bangladesh: Hotter months, lower mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Babalola, Olufemi; Razzaque, Abdur; Bishai, David

    2018-01-01

    Our study aims to obtain estimates of the size effects of temperature extremes on infant mortality in Bangladesh using monthly time series data. Data on temperature, child and infant mortality were obtained for Matlab district of rural Bangladesh for January 1982 to December 2008 encompassing 49,426 infant deaths. To investigate the relationship between mortality and temperature, we adopted a regression with Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) errors model of seasonally adjusted temperature and mortality data. The relationship between monthly mean and maximum temperature on infant mortality was tested at 0 and 1 month lags respectively. Furthermore, our analysis was stratified to determine if the results differed by gender (boys versus girls) and by age (neonates (≤ 30 days) versus post neonates (>30days and Bangladesh. Each degree Celsius increase in mean monthly temperature reduced monthly mortality by 3.672 (SE 1.544, pBangladesh. This may reflect a more heightened sensitivity of infants to hypothermia than hyperthermia in this environment.

  2. Global predictability of temperature extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coughlan de Perez, Erin; van Aalst, Maarten; Bischiniotis, Konstantinos; Mason, Simon; Nissan, Hannah; Pappenberger, Florian; Stephens, Elisabeth; Zsoter, Ervin; van den Hurk, Bart

    2018-05-01

    Extreme temperatures are one of the leading causes of death and disease in both developed and developing countries, and heat extremes are projected to rise in many regions. To reduce risk, heatwave plans and cold weather plans have been effectively implemented around the world. However, much of the world’s population is not yet protected by such systems, including many data-scarce but also highly vulnerable regions. In this study, we assess at a global level where such systems have the potential to be effective at reducing risk from temperature extremes, characterizing (1) long-term average occurrence of heatwaves and coldwaves, (2) seasonality of these extremes, and (3) short-term predictability of these extreme events three to ten days in advance. Using both the NOAA and ECMWF weather forecast models, we develop global maps indicating a first approximation of the locations that are likely to benefit from the development of seasonal preparedness plans and/or short-term early warning systems for extreme temperature. The extratropics generally show both short-term skill as well as strong seasonality; in the tropics, most locations do also demonstrate one or both. In fact, almost 5 billion people live in regions that have seasonality and predictability of heatwaves and/or coldwaves. Climate adaptation investments in these regions can take advantage of seasonality and predictability to reduce risks to vulnerable populations.

  3. Seasonal temperature extremes in Potsdam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kundzewicz, Zbigniew; Huang, Shaochun

    2010-12-01

    The awareness of global warming is well established and results from the observations made on thousands of stations. This paper complements the large-scale results by examining a long time-series of high-quality temperature data from the Secular Meteorological Station in Potsdam, where observation records over the last 117 years, i.e., from January 1893 are available. Tendencies of change in seasonal temperature-related climate extremes are demonstrated. "Cold" extremes have become less frequent and less severe than in the past, while "warm" extremes have become more frequent and more severe. Moreover, the interval of the occurrence of frost has been decreasing, while the interval of the occurrence of hot days has been increasing. However, many changes are not statistically significant, since the variability of temperature indices at the Potsdam station has been very strong.

  4. Extreme Maximum Land Surface Temperatures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garratt, J. R.

    1992-09-01

    There are numerous reports in the literature of observations of land surface temperatures. Some of these, almost all made in situ, reveal maximum values in the 50°-70°C range, with a few, made in desert regions, near 80°C. Consideration of a simplified form of the surface energy balance equation, utilizing likely upper values of absorbed shortwave flux (1000 W m2) and screen air temperature (55°C), that surface temperatures in the vicinity of 90°-100°C may occur for dry, darkish soils of low thermal conductivity (0.1-0.2 W m1 K1). Numerical simulations confirm this and suggest that temperature gradients in the first few centimeters of soil may reach 0.5°-1°C mm1 under these extreme conditions. The study bears upon the intrinsic interest of identifying extreme maximum temperatures and yields interesting information regarding the comfort zone of animals (including man).

  5. Mortality impact of extreme winter temperatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Díaz, Julio; García, Ricardo; López, César; Linares, Cristina; Tobías, Aurelio; Prieto, Luis

    2005-01-01

    During the last few years great attention has been paid to the evaluation of the impact of extreme temperatures on human health. This paper examines the effect of extreme winter temperature on mortality in Madrid for people older than 65, using ARIMA and GAM models. Data correspond to 1,815 winter days over the period 1986 1997, during which time a total of 133,000 deaths occurred. The daily maximum temperature (Tmax) was shown to be the best thermal indicator of the impact of climate on mortality. When total mortality was considered, the maximum impact occured 7 8 days after a temperature extreme; for circulatory diseases the lag was between 7 and 14 days. When respiratory causes were considered, two mortality peaks were evident at 4 5 and 11 days. When the impact of winter extreme temperatures was compared with that associated with summer extremes, it was found to occur over a longer term, and appeared to be more indirect.

  6. Extremely low temperature properties of epoxy GFRP

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kadotani, Kenzo; Nagai, Matao; Aki, Fumitake.

    1983-01-01

    The examination of fiber-reinforced plastics, that is, plastics such as epoxy, polyester and polyimide reinforced with high strength fibers such as glass, carbon, boron and steel, for extremely low temperature use began from the fuel tanks of rockets. Therafter, the trial manufacture of superconducting generators and extremely low temperature transformers and the manufacture of superconducting magnets for nuclear fusion experimental setups became active, and high performance FRPs have been adopted, of which the extremely low temperature properties have been sufficiently grasped. Recently, the cryostats made of FRPs have been developed, fully utilizing such features of FRPs as high strength, high rigidity, non-magnetic material, insulation, low heat conductivity, light weight and the freedom of molding. In this paper, the mechanical properties at extremely low temperature of the plastic composite materials used as insulators and structural materials for extremely low temperature superconducting equipment is outlined, and in particular, glass fiber-reinforced epoxy laminates are described somewhat in detail. The fracture strain of GFRP at extremely low temperature is about 1.3 times as large as that at room temperature, but at extremely low temperature, clear cracking occurred at 40% of the fracture strain. The linear thermal contraction of GFRP showed remarkable anisotropy. (Kako, I.)

  7. Betavoltaic performance under extreme temperatures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adams Tom

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Longevity of sensors and portable devices is severely limited by temperature, chemical instability, and electrolyte leakage issues associated with conventional electrochemical batteries. Betavoltaics, which operate similar to photo voltaics, can operate in a wide temperature range safely without permanent degradation. Though not a new concept, which began in the 1950's and peaked in the mid 1970's, research has been minimal and sporadic until recent advancements in ultra-low power electronics and materialization of low power applications. The technology is rapidly maturing, generating research, and development in increasing the beta emitting source and semiconductor efficiencies. This study presents an update on betavoltaic technology, results from temperature evaluation on commercially available General Licensed betavoltaic cells, development of a hybrid system for latent and burst power, modeling and simulation techniques and results, and current and proposed research and development. Betavoltaic performance was successfully demonstrated for a wide temperature range (-30°C to 70°C. Short circuit current and open circuit voltage were used to compare electrical performance. Results indicate that the open-circuit voltage and maximum power decreased as temperature increased due to increases in the semiconductor's intrinsic carrier concentration.

  8. Changing world extreme temperature statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finkel, J. M.; Katz, J. I.

    2018-04-01

    We use the Global Historical Climatology Network--daily database to calculate a nonparametric statistic that describes the rate at which all-time daily high and low temperature records have been set in nine geographic regions (continents or major portions of continents) during periods mostly from the mid-20th Century to the present. This statistic was defined in our earlier work on temperature records in the 48 contiguous United States. In contrast to this earlier work, we find that in every region except North America all-time high records were set at a rate significantly (at least $3\\sigma$) higher than in the null hypothesis of a stationary climate. Except in Antarctica, all-time low records were set at a rate significantly lower than in the null hypothesis. In Europe, North Africa and North Asia the rate of setting new all-time highs increased suddenly in the 1990's, suggesting a change in regional climate regime; in most other regions there was a steadier increase.

  9. Temperature Extremes, Health, and Human Capital

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zivin, Joshua Graff; Shrader, Jeffrey

    2016-01-01

    The extreme temperatures expected under climate change may be especially harmful to children. Children are more vulnerable to heat partly because of their physiological features, but, perhaps more important, because they behave and respond differently than adults do. Children are less likely to manage their own heat risk and may have fewer ways to…

  10. Extreme low temperature tolerance in woody plants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    George Richard Strimbeck

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Woody plants in boreal to arctic environments and high mountains survive prolonged exposure to temperatures below -40˚C and minimum temperatures below -60˚C, and laboratory tests show that many of these species can also survive immersion in liquid nitrogen at -196˚C. Studies of biochemical changes that occur during acclimation, including recent proteomic and metabolomic studies, have identified changes in carbohydrate and compatible solute concentrations, membrane lipid composition, and proteins, notably dehydrins, that may have important roles in survival at extreme low temperature. Consideration of the biophysical mechanisms of membrane stress and strain lead to the following hypotheses for cellular and molecular mechanisms of survival at extreme low temperature: 1. Changes in lipid composition stabilize membranes at temperatures above the lipid phase transition temperature (-20 to 30˚C, preventing phase changes that result in irreversible injury. 2. High concentrations of oligosaccharides promote vitrification or high viscosity in the cytoplasm in freeze-dehydrated cells, which would prevent deleterious interactions between membranes. 3. Dehydrins bind membranes and further promote vitrification or act stearically to prevent membrane-membrane interactions.

  11. Historic and future increase in the global land area affected by monthly heat extremes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coumou, Dim; Robinson, Alexander

    2013-01-01

    Climatic warming of about 0.5 ° C in the global mean since the 1970s has strongly increased the occurrence-probability of heat extremes on monthly to seasonal time scales. For the 21st century, climate models predict more substantial warming. Here we show that the multi-model mean of the CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) climate models accurately reproduces the evolution over time and spatial patterns of the historically observed increase in monthly heat extremes. For the near-term (i.e., by 2040), the models predict a robust, several-fold increase in the frequency of such heat extremes, irrespective of the emission scenario. However, mitigation can strongly reduce the number of heat extremes by the second half of the 21st century. Unmitigated climate change causes most (>50%) continental regions to move to a new climatic regime with the coldest summer months by the end of the century substantially hotter than the hottest experienced today. We show that the land fraction experiencing extreme heat as a function of global mean temperature follows a simple cumulative distribution function, which depends only on natural variability and the level of spatial heterogeneity in the warming. (letter)

  12. Forecasting extreme temperature health hazards in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Napoli, Claudia; Pappenberger, Florian; Cloke, Hannah L.

    2017-04-01

    Extreme hot temperatures, such as those experienced during a heat wave, represent a dangerous meteorological hazard to human health. Heat disorders such as sunstroke are harmful to people of all ages and responsible for excess mortality in the affected areas. In 2003 more than 50,000 people died in western and southern Europe because of a severe and sustained episode of summer heat [1]. Furthermore, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change heat waves are expected to get more frequent in the future thus posing an increasing threat to human lives. Developing appropriate tools for extreme hot temperatures prediction is therefore mandatory to increase public preparedness and mitigate heat-induced impacts. A recent study has shown that forecasts of the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) provide a valid overview of extreme temperature health hazards on a global scale [2]. UTCI is a parameter related to the temperature of the human body and its regulatory responses to the surrounding atmospheric environment. UTCI is calculated using an advanced thermo-physiological model that includes the human heat budget, physiology and clothing. To forecast UTCI the model uses meteorological inputs, such as 2m air temperature, 2m water vapour pressure and wind velocity at body height derived from 10m wind speed, from NWP models. Here we examine the potential of UTCI as an extreme hot temperature prediction tool for the European area. UTCI forecasts calculated using above-mentioned parameters from ECMWF models are presented. The skill in predicting UTCI for medium lead times is also analysed and discussed for implementation to international health-hazard warning systems. This research is supported by the ANYWHERE project (EnhANcing emergencY management and response to extreme WeatHER and climate Events) which is funded by the European Commission's HORIZON2020 programme. [1] Koppe C. et al., Heat waves: risks and responses. World Health Organization. Health and

  13. Considerations upon extreme temperatures on Romanian territory.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. MARINICĂ

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available In this article we analyse the evolution in time of extreme temperatures significant for Romania with a focus on absolute extreme temperatures recorded on the overall present teritory. After thoroughly investigating the credible sources we quoted in our bibliography, we present in chronological order the records for absolute minimum temperatures, and absolute maximum temperatures which were measured at the meteorological stations on the present territory of Romania, according to the availability of the data, i.e. the last two decades of the XIXth century up until 2017. We classify and discuss the sources of climatological data in the form of minimum and maximum temperatures. The measurements of meteorological parameters on the current national territory were recorded since 1770 at Iași (cf. Dissescu 1931 and also http://www.meteoromania.ro/anm2/despre-noi/istoric/ - page in Romanian as of 30.03.2017. For a systematic approach with credible data, at least another century passed, until Ștefan Hepites (1851-1922 founded in 1884 in Bucharest the Central Meteorological Institute of Romania (I.M.C. in Romanian(Dissescu, 1931 and cf. the ANM web page quoted earlier. The newly created Institute did not include the meteorological stations which were present at that time in Transylvania, but only the ones on the official Romanian teritory of 1859-1918 made up of Moldavia and Wallachia. This paper argues in favour of the process of global warming (GW and its effects upon the evolution of extreme temperature values in a certain time interval. The conclusions stemming from the investigation of the dataset in this paper should provide a helpful and necessary point of departure in subsequent research of climatologists in their quest of identitifying the correct model of future climate. Our article should be regarded as part of a series of analyses of the variability of the climate in Romania, the recent influence of global warming on it and on certain

  14. Trends and variation in monthly rainfall and temperature in Suriname

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raid, Nurmohamed

    2004-01-01

    As Surinam lies within the equatorial trough zone, climate is mainly influenced by the movement and intensity of the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone and the El Nino Southern Oscillation. Scientist predict that global climate change will directly effect the hydrological cycle such as rainfall and temperature, and extreme events such as a El Nino and La Nina. The aim of this study is to analyze historical changes in monthly rainfall and temperature and to predict future changes, with respect to climate change (doubling of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) by 2100) and variability. Linear extrapolation and five Global Circulations Models (GCMS) (HadCM2, ECHAM4, GFDL-TR, CSIRO2-EQ, CCSR-NIES) will be used. Results of GCMs have showed that under global climate change by 2100, the monthly rainfall is predicted to change with -82 to 66 mm during January and August, and -36 to 47 mm during September and November. The monthly temperature is predicted to increase with 1.3 to 4.3 C by 2100. El Nino events have showed that along the coastal zone and in the center of Surinam, most months (>50%) during the year are drier than normal (88 to 316 mm), while in the west part of Surinam, most months (>50%) are wetter than normal (110 to 220 mm). La Nina events have showed that over entire Surinam, most of the months are wetter than normal (19 to 122 mm), with respect to the minimum rainfall. It can be concluded that the changes in rainfall due to El Nino and La Nina events may have significant impacts on the design, planning and management of water resources systems in Surinam and should therefore be incorporated in future water resources planning. (Author)

  15. Impact of soil moisture on extreme maximum temperatures in Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kirien Whan

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Land-atmosphere interactions play an important role for hot temperature extremes in Europe. Dry soils may amplify such extremes through feedbacks with evapotranspiration. While previous observational studies generally focused on the relationship between precipitation deficits and the number of hot days, we investigate here the influence of soil moisture (SM on summer monthly maximum temperatures (TXx using water balance model-based SM estimates (driven with observations and temperature observations. Generalized extreme value distributions are fitted to TXx using SM as a covariate. We identify a negative relationship between SM and TXx, whereby a 100 mm decrease in model-based SM is associated with a 1.6 °C increase in TXx in Southern-Central and Southeastern Europe. Dry SM conditions result in a 2–4 °C increase in the 20-year return value of TXx compared to wet conditions in these two regions. In contrast with SM impacts on the number of hot days (NHD, where low and high surface-moisture conditions lead to different variability, we find a mostly linear dependency of the 20-year return value on surface-moisture conditions. We attribute this difference to the non-linear relationship between TXx and NHD that stems from the threshold-based calculation of NHD. Furthermore the employed SM data and the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI are only weakly correlated in the investigated regions, highlighting the importance of evapotranspiration and runoff for resulting SM. Finally, in a case study for the hot 2003 summer we illustrate that if 2003 spring conditions in Southern-Central Europe had been as dry as in the more recent 2011 event, temperature extremes in summer would have been higher by about 1 °C, further enhancing the already extreme conditions which prevailed in that year.

  16. Global Historical Climatology Network - Monthly Temperature, Version 4 (BETA)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Only available as BETA release. The GHCN-Monthly Temperature Version 4 dataset consists of monthly mean temperature - both raw and bias corrected data. A full...

  17. Developmental delay at 12 months in children born extremely preterm

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lando, Ane; Klamer, Anja; Jonsbo, Finn

    2005-01-01

    AIM: To evaluate the feasibility and validity of a structured telephone interview to assess the development of children born extremely preterm. METHODS: The parents of 88 children born with a gestational age below 28 wk admitted to the neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) at Rigshospitalet......, Copenhagen, were interviewed by telephone when their child was 1 y of age, corrected for preterm birth. A fully structured questionnaire on psychomotor function was used (Revised Prescreening Developmental Questionnaire (R-PDQ)). The parents of 30 children born at term without complications were interviewed...... to use by staff and well accepted by parents. The mean score in the preterm group was 14.9+/-3.9 vs 17.7+/-2.7 in the term group (pchildren had developmental scores below-2 SD. The R-PDQ score was associated with the ASQ score 2 y later. CONCLUSION: A structured questionnaire administrated...

  18. Changes in Indices of Daily Temperature and Precipitation Extremes ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    It's a known fact that climate change will bring about increases in the occurrence of weather extreme events such as elevated temperature, drought, and floods; most especially in areas classified as hotspots to climate change – such as northwest Nigeria. This study investigates trends in extreme temperature and ...

  19. Temperature extremes: Effect on plant growth and development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jerry L. Hatfield

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Temperature is a primary factor affecting the rate of plant development. Warmer temperatures expected with climate change and the potential for more extreme temperature events will impact plant productivity. Pollination is one of the most sensitive phenological stages to temperature extremes across all species and during this developmental stage temperature extremes would greatly affect production. Few adaptation strategies are available to cope with temperature extremes at this developmental stage other than to select for plants which shed pollen during the cooler periods of the day or are indeterminate so flowering occurs over a longer period of the growing season. In controlled environment studies, warm temperatures increased the rate of phenological development; however, there was no effect on leaf area or vegetative biomass compared to normal temperatures. The major impact of warmer temperatures was during the reproductive stage of development and in all cases grain yield in maize was significantly reduced by as much as 80−90% from a normal temperature regime. Temperature effects are increased by water deficits and excess soil water demonstrating that understanding the interaction of temperature and water will be needed to develop more effective adaptation strategies to offset the impacts of greater temperature extreme events associated with a changing climate.

  20. Performance of Portable Ventilators Following Storage at Temperature Extremes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blakeman, Thomas C; Rodriquez, Dario; Britton, Tyler J; Johannigman, Jay A; Petro, Michael C; Branson, Richard D

    2016-05-01

    In the current theater of operation, medical devices are often shipped and stored at ambient conditions. The effect of storage at hot and cold temperature extremes on ventilator performance is unknown. We evaluated three portable ventilators currently in use or being evaluated for use by the Department of Defense (731, Impact Instrumentation; T1, Hamilton Medical; and Revel, CareFusion) at temperature extremes in a laboratory setting. The ventilators were stored at temperatures of 60°C and -35°C for 24 hours and were allowed to acclimate to room temperature for 30 minutes before evaluation. The T1 required an extra 15 to 30 minutes of acclimation to room temperature before the ventilator would deliver breaths. All delivered tidal volumes at room temperature and after storage at temperature extremes were less than the ±10% American Society for Testing and Materials standard with the Revel. Delivered tidal volumes at the pediatric settings were less than the ±10% threshold after storage at both temperatures and at room temperature with the 731. Storage at extreme temperature affected the performance of the portable ventilators tested. This study showed that portable ventilators may need an hour or more of acclimation time at room temperature after storage at temperature extremes to operate as intended. Reprint & Copyright © 2016 Association of Military Surgeons of the U.S.

  1. Australia's Unprecedented Future Temperature Extremes Under Paris Limits to Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis, Sophie C.; King, Andrew D.; Mitchell, Daniel M.

    2017-10-01

    Record-breaking temperatures can detrimentally impact ecosystems, infrastructure, and human health. Previous studies show that climate change has influenced some observed extremes, which are expected to become more frequent under enhanced future warming. Understanding the magnitude, as a well as frequency, of such future extremes is critical for limiting detrimental impacts. We focus on temperature changes in Australian regions, including over a major coral reef-building area, and assess the potential magnitude of future extreme temperatures under Paris Agreement global warming targets (1.5°C and 2°C). Under these limits to global mean warming, we determine a set of projected high-magnitude unprecedented Australian temperature extremes. These include extremes unexpected based on observational temperatures, including current record-breaking events. For example, while the difference in global-average warming during the hottest Australian summer and the 2°C Paris target is 1.1°C, extremes of 2.4°C above the observed summer record are simulated. This example represents a more than doubling of the magnitude of extremes, compared with global mean change, and such temperatures are unexpected based on the observed record alone. Projected extremes do not necessarily scale linearly with mean global warming, and this effect demonstrates the significant potential benefits of limiting warming to 1.5°C, compared to 2°C or warmer.

  2. Temperature extremes in a changing climate: Drivers and feedbacks (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seneviratne, S. I.; Davin, E. L.; Hirschi, M.; Mueller, B.; Orlowsky, B.; Orth, R.; Wilhelm, M.

    2013-12-01

    Global warming increases the occurrence probability of hot extremes, and improving the predictability of such events is thus becoming of critical importance (e.g. Seneviratne et al. 2012). This presentation provides an overview of past and projected changes in hot extremes on the global and regional scale, and of the respective drivers and feedbacks responsible for their occurrence. In particular, soil moisture-temperature feedbacks have been identified as major drivers for hot extremes (e.g. Seneviratne et al. 2006, 2010; Hirschi et al. 2011). Recently, a global study (Mueller and Seneviratne 2012) has shown that wide areas of the world display a strong relationship between the number of hot days in the regions' hottest month and preceding precipitation deficits. These findings suggest that effects of soil moisture-temperature coupling are geographically more widespread than commonly assumed, with for instance large hot spots of soil moisture-temperature coupling in the Southern Hemisphere. Further results indicate that this relationship could be better used in the context of seasonal forecasting, allowing an early warning of impending hot summers (Mueller and Seneviratne 2012, Orth and Seneviratne 2013). In addition, the role of soil moisture-climate feedbacks for climate projections will also be discussed (e.g. Orlowsky and Seneviratne 2012; Seneviratne et al., 2013). Finally, we will address the relevance of the identified feedbacks in the context of urban climate, as well as potential relevant impacts of other land-climate interactions (e.g. from modifications in surface albedo). References: Hirschi, M., et al., 2011: Observational evidence for soil-moisture impact on hot extremes in southeastern Europe. Nature Geosci., 4, 17-21, doi:10.1038/ngeo1032. Mueller, B., and S.I. Seneviratne, 2012: Hot days induced by precipitation deficits at the global scale. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci., 109 (31), 12398-12403, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1204330109. Orth, R. and S.I. Seneviratne

  3. Extreme temperature packaging: challenges and opportunities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, R. Wayne

    2016-05-01

    Consumer electronics account for the majority of electronics manufactured today. Given the temperature limits of humans, consumer electronics are typically rated for operation from -40°C to +85°C. Military applications extend the range to -65°C to +125°C while underhood automotive electronics may see +150°C. With the proliferation of the Internet of Things (IoT), the goal of instrumenting (sensing, computation, transmission) to improve safety and performance in high temperature environments such as geothermal wells, nuclear reactors, combustion chambers, industrial processes, etc. requires sensors, electronics and packaging compatible with these environments. Advances in wide bandgap semiconductors (SiC and GaN) allow the fabrication of high temperature compatible sensors and electronics. Integration and packaging of these devices is required for implementation into actual applications. The basic elements of packaging are die attach, electrical interconnection and the package or housing. Consumer electronics typically use conductive adhesives or low melting point solders for die attach, wire bonds or low melting solder for electrical interconnection and epoxy for the package. These materials melt or decompose in high temperature environments. This paper examines materials and processes for high temperature packaging including liquid transient phase and sintered nanoparticle die attach, high melting point wires for wire bonding and metal and ceramic packages. The limitations of currently available solutions will also be discussed.

  4. Extreme Environment High Temperature Communication Systems, Phase I

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The purpose of this project is to develop and demonstrate a communications system capable of operation at extreme temperatures and pressures in hostile and corrosive...

  5. Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes observed in Modena, Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boccolari, M.; Malmusi, S.

    2013-03-01

    Climate changes has become one of the most analysed subjects from researchers community, mainly because of the numerous extreme events that hit the globe. To have a better view of climate changes and trends, long observations time series are needed. During last decade a lot of Italian time series, concerning several surface meteorological variables, have been analysed and published. No one of them includes one of the longest record in Italy, the time series of the Geophysical Observatory of the University of Modena and Reggio Emilia. Measurements, collected since early 19th century, always in the same position, except for some months during the second world war, embrace daily temperature, precipitation amount, relative humidity, pressure, cloudiness and other variables. In this work we concentrated on the analysis of yearly and seasonal trends and climate extremes of temperature, both minimum and maximum, and precipitation time series, for the periods 1861-2010 and 1831-2010 respectively, in which continuous measurements are available. In general, our results confirm quite well those reported by IPCC and in many other studies over Mediterranean area. In particular, we found that minimum temperature has a non significant positive trend of + 0.1 °C per decade considering all the period, the value increases to 0.9 °C per decade for 1981-2010. For maximum temperature we observed a non significant + 0.1 °C trend for all the period, while + 0.8 °C for the last thirty years. On the other hand precipitation is decreasing, -6.3 mm per decade, considering all the analysed period, while the last thirty years are characterised by a great increment of 74.8 mm per decade. For both variables several climate indices have been analysed and they confirm what has been found for minimum and maximum temperatures and precipitation. In particular, during last 30 years frost days and ice days are decreasing, whereas summer days are increasing. During the last 30-year tropical nights

  6. Return levels of temperature extremes in southern Pakistan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zahid, Maida; Blender, Richard; Lucarini, Valerio; Caterina Bramati, Maria

    2017-12-01

    Southern Pakistan (Sindh) is one of the hottest regions in the world and is highly vulnerable to temperature extremes. In order to improve rural and urban planning, it is useful to gather information about the recurrence of temperature extremes. In this work, return levels of the daily maximum temperature Tmax are estimated, as well as the daily maximum wet-bulb temperature TWmax extremes. We adopt the peaks over threshold (POT) method, which has not yet been used for similar studies in this region. Two main datasets are analyzed: temperatures observed at nine meteorological stations in southern Pakistan from 1980 to 2013, and the ERA-Interim (ECMWF reanalysis) data for the nearest corresponding locations. The analysis provides the 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, and 100-year return levels (RLs) of temperature extremes. The 90 % quantile is found to be a suitable threshold for all stations. We find that the RLs of the observed Tmax are above 50 °C at northern stations and above 45 °C at the southern stations. The RLs of the observed TWmax exceed 35 °C in the region, which is considered as a limit of survivability. The RLs estimated from the ERA-Interim data are lower by 3 to 5 °C than the RLs assessed for the nine meteorological stations. A simple bias correction applied to ERA-Interim data improves the RLs remarkably, yet discrepancies are still present. The results have potential implications for the risk assessment of extreme temperatures in Sindh.

  7. Observed and simulated temperature extremes during the recent warming hiatus

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sillmann, Jana; Donat, Markus G; Fyfe, John C; Zwiers, Francis W

    2014-01-01

    The discrepancy between recent observed and simulated trends in global mean surface temperature has provoked a debate about possible causes and implications for future climate change projections. However, little has been said in this discussion about observed and simulated trends in global temperature extremes. Here we assess trend patterns in temperature extremes and evaluate the consistency between observed and simulated temperature extremes over the past four decades (1971–2010) in comparison to the recent 15 years (1996–2010). We consider the coldest night and warmest day in a year in the observational dataset HadEX2 and in the current generation of global climate models (CMIP5). In general, the observed trends fall within the simulated range of trends, with better consistency for the longer period. Spatial trend patterns differ for the warm and cold extremes, with the warm extremes showing continuous positive trends across the globe and the cold extremes exhibiting a coherent cooling pattern across the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes that has emerged in the recent 15 years and is not reproduced by the models. This regional inconsistency between models and observations might be a key to understanding the recent hiatus in global mean temperature warming. (letters)

  8. Forecast of Frost Days Based on Monthly Temperatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castellanos, M. T.; Tarquis, A. M.; Morató, M. C.; Saa-Requejo, A.

    2009-04-01

    Although frost can cause considerable crop damage and mitigation practices against forecasted frost exist, frost forecasting technologies have not changed for many years. The paper reports a new method to forecast the monthly number of frost days (FD) for several meteorological stations at Community of Madrid (Spain) based on successive application of two models. The first one is a stochastic model, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), that forecasts monthly minimum absolute temperature (tmin) and monthly average of minimum temperature (tminav) following Box-Jenkins methodology. The second model relates these monthly temperatures to minimum daily temperature distribution during one month. Three ARIMA models were identified for the time series analyzed with a stational period correspondent to one year. They present the same stational behavior (moving average differenced model) and different non-stational part: autoregressive model (Model 1), moving average differenced model (Model 2) and autoregressive and moving average model (Model 3). At the same time, the results point out that minimum daily temperature (tdmin), for the meteorological stations studied, followed a normal distribution each month with a very similar standard deviation through years. This standard deviation obtained for each station and each month could be used as a risk index for cold months. The application of Model 1 to predict minimum monthly temperatures showed the best FD forecast. This procedure provides a tool for crop managers and crop insurance companies to asses the risk of frost frequency and intensity, so that they can take steps to mitigate against frost damage and estimated the damage that frost would cost. This research was supported by Comunidad de Madrid Research Project 076/92. The cooperation of the Spanish National Meteorological Institute and the Spanish Ministerio de Agricultura, Pesca y Alimentation (MAPA) is gratefully acknowledged.

  9. Towards constraining extreme temperature projections of the CMIP5 ensemble

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vogel, Martha-Marie; Orth, René; Isabelle Seneviratne, Sonia

    2016-04-01

    The frequency and intensity of heat waves is expected to change in future in response to global warming. Given the severe impacts of heat waves on ecosystems and society it is important to understand how and where they will intensify. Projections of extreme hot temperatures in the IPCC AR5 model ensemble show large uncertainties for projected changes of extreme temperatures in particular in Central Europe. In this region land-atmosphere coupling can contribute substantially to the development of heat waves. This coupling is also subject to change in future, while model projections display considerable spread. In this work we link projections of changes in extreme temperatures and of changes in land-atmosphere interactions with a particular focus on Central Europe. Uncertainties in projected extreme temperatures can be partly explained by different projected changes of the interplay between latent heat and temperature as well as soil moisture. Given the considerable uncertainty in land-atmosphere coupling representation already in the current climate, we furthermore employ observational data sets to constrain the model ensemble, and consequently the extreme temperature projections.

  10. Estimating monthly temperature using point based interpolation techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saaban, Azizan; Mah Hashim, Noridayu; Murat, Rusdi Indra Zuhdi

    2013-04-01

    This paper discusses the use of point based interpolation to estimate the value of temperature at an unallocated meteorology stations in Peninsular Malaysia using data of year 2010 collected from the Malaysian Meteorology Department. Two point based interpolation methods which are Inverse Distance Weighted (IDW) and Radial Basis Function (RBF) are considered. The accuracy of the methods is evaluated using Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). The results show that RBF with thin plate spline model is suitable to be used as temperature estimator for the months of January and December, while RBF with multiquadric model is suitable to estimate the temperature for the rest of the months.

  11. Historic and future increase in the global land area affected by monthly heat extremes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Coumou, Dim; Robinson, Alexander

    2013-01-01

    Climatic warming of about 0.5 ° C in the global mean since the 1970s has strongly increased the occurrence-probability of heat extremes on monthly to seasonal time scales. For the 21st century, climate models predict more substantial warming. Here we show that the multi-model mean of the CMIP5

  12. Modulation of extreme temperatures in Europe under extreme values of the North Atlantic Oscillation Index.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beniston, Martin

    2018-03-10

    This paper reports on the influence that extreme values in the tails of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Index probability density function (PDF) can exert on temperatures in Europe. When the NAO Index enters into its lowest (10% quantile or less) and highest (90% quantile or higher) modes, European temperatures often exhibit large negative or positive departures from their mean values, respectively. Analyses of the joint quantiles of the Index and temperatures (i.e., the simultaneous exceedance of particular quantile thresholds by the two variables) show that temperatures enter into the upper or lower tails of their PDF when the NAO Index also enters into its extreme tails, more often that could be expected from random statistics. Studies of this nature help further our understanding of the manner by which mechanisms of decadal-scale climate variability can influence extremes of temperature-and thus perhaps improve the forecasting of extreme temperatures in weather and climate models. © 2018 New York Academy of Sciences.

  13. Daily extreme temperature multifractals in Catalonia (NE Spain)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Burgueño, A. [Departament d' Astronomia i Meteorologia, Universitat de Barcelona, Barcelona (Spain); Lana, X., E-mail: francisco.javier.lana@upc.edu [Departament de Física i Enginyeria Nuclear, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, Barcelona (Spain); Serra, C. [Departament de Física i Enginyeria Nuclear, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, Barcelona (Spain); Martínez, M.D. [Departament de Física Aplicada, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, Barcelona (Spain)

    2014-02-01

    The multifractal character of the daily extreme temperatures in Catalonia (NE Spain) is analyzed by means of the multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) applied to 65 thermometric records covering years 1950–2004. Although no clear spatial patterns of the multifractal spectrum parameters appear, factor scores deduced from Principal Component analysis indicate some signs of spatial gradients. Additionally, the daily extreme temperature series are classified depending on their complex time behavior, through four multifractal parameters (Hurst exponent, Hölder exponent with maximum spectrum, spectrum asymmetry and spectrum width). As a synthesis of the three last parameters, a basic measure of complexity is proposed through a normalized Complexity Index. Its regional behavior is found to be free of geographical dependences. This index represents a new step towards the description of the daily extreme temperatures complexity.

  14. Daily extreme temperature multifractals in Catalonia (NE Spain)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burgueño, A.; Lana, X.; Serra, C.; Martínez, M.D.

    2014-01-01

    The multifractal character of the daily extreme temperatures in Catalonia (NE Spain) is analyzed by means of the multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) applied to 65 thermometric records covering years 1950–2004. Although no clear spatial patterns of the multifractal spectrum parameters appear, factor scores deduced from Principal Component analysis indicate some signs of spatial gradients. Additionally, the daily extreme temperature series are classified depending on their complex time behavior, through four multifractal parameters (Hurst exponent, Hölder exponent with maximum spectrum, spectrum asymmetry and spectrum width). As a synthesis of the three last parameters, a basic measure of complexity is proposed through a normalized Complexity Index. Its regional behavior is found to be free of geographical dependences. This index represents a new step towards the description of the daily extreme temperatures complexity.

  15. Projected Changes in Temperature Extremes in China Using PRECIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yujing Zhang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Temperature extremes can cause disastrous impacts on ecological and social economic systems. China is very sensitive to climate change, as its warming rate exceeds that of the global mean level. This paper focused on the spatial and temporal changes of the temperature extremes characterized by the 95th percentile of maximum temperature (TX95, the 5th percentile of the minimum temperature (TN5, high-temperature days (HTD and low-temperature days (LTD. The daily maximum and minimum temperatures generated by PRECIS under different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs are used in the research. The results show that: (1 Model simulation data can reproduce the spatial distribution features of the maximum temperature (Tmax and minimum temperature (Tmin as well as that of the extreme temperature indices; (2 By the end of the 21st century (2070–2099, both the Tmax and Tmin are warmer than the baseline level (1961–1990 in China and the eight sub-regions. However, there are regional differences in the asymmetrical warming features, as the Tmin warms more than the Tmax in the northern part of China and the Tibetan Plateau, while the Tmax warms more than the Tmin in the southern part of China; (3 The frequency of the warm extremes would become more usual, as the HTD characterized by the present-day threshold would increase by 106%, 196% and 346%, under RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively, while the cold extremes characterized by the LTD would become less frequent by the end of the 21st century, decreasing by 75%, 90% and 98% under RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. The southern and eastern parts of the Tibetan Plateau respond sensitively to changes in both the hot and cold extremes, suggesting its higher likelihood to suffer from climate warming; (4 The intensity of the warm (cold extremes would increase (decrease significantly, characterized by the changes in the TX95 (TN5 by the end of the 21st century, and the magnitude of the

  16. Stationary and non-stationary extreme value modeling of extreme temperature in Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hasan, Husna; Salleh, Nur Hanim Mohd; Kassim, Suraiya

    2014-09-01

    Extreme annual temperature of eighteen stations in Malaysia is fitted to the Generalized Extreme Value distribution. Stationary and non-stationary models with trend are considered for each station and the Likelihood Ratio test is used to determine the best-fitting model. Results show that three out of eighteen stations i.e. Bayan Lepas, Labuan and Subang favor a model which is linear in the location parameter. A hierarchical cluster analysis is employed to investigate the existence of similar behavior among the stations. Three distinct clusters are found in which one of them consists of the stations that favor the non-stationary model. T-year estimated return levels of the extreme temperature are provided based on the chosen models.

  17. International Surface Temperature Initiative (ISTI) Global Land Surface Temperature Databank - Stage 2 Monthly

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The global land surface temperature databank contains monthly timescale mean, max, and min temperature for approximately 40,000 stations globally. It was developed...

  18. International Surface Temperature Initiative (ISTI) Global Land Surface Temperature Databank - Stage 3 Monthly

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Global Land Surface Temperature Databank contains monthly timescale mean, maximum, and minimum temperature for approximately 40,000 stations globally. It was...

  19. International Surface Temperature Initiative (ISTI) Global Land Surface Temperature Databank - Stage 1 Monthly

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The global land surface temperature databank contains monthly timescale mean, max, and min temperature for approximately 40,000 stations globally. It was developed...

  20. The Mediterranean Moisture Contribution to Climatological and Extreme Monthly Continental Precipitation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Danica Ciric

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Moisture transport from its sources to surrounding continents is one of the most relevant topics in hydrology, and its role in extreme events is crucial for understanding several processes such as intense precipitation and flooding. In this study, we considered the Mediterranean Sea as the main water source and estimated its contribution to the monthly climatological and extreme precipitation events over the surrounding continental areas. To assess the effect of the Mediterranean Sea on precipitation, we used the Multi-Source Weighted-Ensemble Precipitation (MSWEP database to characterize precipitation. The Lagrangian dispersion model known as FLEXPART was used to estimate the moisture contribution of this source. This contribution was estimated by tracking particles that leave the Mediterranean basin monthly and then calculating water loss (E − P < 0 over the continental region, which was modelled by FLEXPART. The analysis was conducted using data from 1980 to 2015 with a spatial resolution of 0.25°. The results showed that, in general, the spatial pattern of the Mediterranean source’s contribution to precipitation, unlike climatology, is similar during extreme precipitation years in the regions under study. However, while the Mediterranean Sea is usually not an important source of climatological precipitation for some European regions, it is a significant source during extreme precipitation years.

  1. Trends in extreme temperature and precipitation in Muscat, Oman

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. N. Gunawardhana

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Changes in frequency and intensity of weather events often result in more frequent and intensive disasters such as flash floods and persistent droughts. In Oman, changes in precipitation and temperature have already been detected, although a comprehensive analysis to determine long-term trends is yet to be conducted. We analysed daily precipitation and temperature records in Muscat, the capital city of Oman, mainly focusing on extremes. A set of climate indices, defined in the RClimDex software package, were derived from the longest available daily series (precipitation over the period 1977–2011 and temperature over the period 1986–2011. Results showed significant changes in temperature extremes associated with cooling. Annual maximum value of daily maximum temperature (TX, on average, decreased by 1°C (0.42°C/10 year. Similarly, the annual minimum value of daily minimum temperature (TN decreased by 1.5°C (0.61°C/10 year, which, on average, cooled at a faster rate than the maximum temperature. Consequently, the annual count of days when TX > 45°C (98th percentile decreased from 8 to 3, by 5 days. Similarly, the annual count of days when TN < 15°C (2nd percentile increased from 5 to 15, by 10 days. Annual total precipitation averaged over the period 1977–2011 is 81 mm, which shows a tendency toward wetter conditions with a 6 mm/10 year rate. There is also a significant tendency for stronger precipitation extremes according to many indices. The contribution from very wet days to the annual precipitation totals steadily increases with significance at 75% level. When The General Extreme Value (GEV probability distribution is fitted to annual maximum 1-day precipitation, the return level of a 10-year return period in 1995–2011 was estimated to be 95 mm. This return level in the recent decade is about 70% higher than the return level for the period of 1977–1994. These results indicate that the long-term wetting signal apparent in total

  2. Temperature extremes in Europe: mechanisms and responses to climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cattiaux, Julien

    2010-01-01

    Europe witnessed a spate of record-breaking warm seasons during the 2000's. As illustrated by the devastating heat-wave of the summer 2003, these episodes induced strong societal and environmental impacts. Such occurrence of exceptional events over a relatively short time period raised up many questionings in the present context of climate change. In particular, can recent temperature extremes be considered as 'previews' of future climate conditions? Do they result from an increasing temperature variability? These questions constitute the main motivations of this thesis. Thus, our work aims to contribute to the understanding of physical mechanisms responsible for seasonal temperature extremes in Europe, in order to anticipate their future statistical characteristics. Involved processes are assessed by both statistical data-analysis of observations and climate projections and regional modeling experiments. First we show that while the inter-annual European temperature variability appears driven by disturbances in the North-Atlantic dynamics, the recent warming is likely to be dissociated with potential circulation changes. This inconsistency climaxes during the exceptionally mild autumn of 2006, whose temperature anomaly is only half explained by the atmospheric flow. Recent warm surface conditions in the North-Atlantic ocean seem to substantially contribute to the European warming in autumn-winter, through the establishment of advective and radiative processes. In spring-summer, since both advection by the westerlies and Atlantic warming are reduced, more local processes appear predominant (e.g. soil moisture, clouds, aerosols). Then the issue of future evolution of the relationship between North-Atlantic dynamics and European temperatures is addressed, based on climate projections of the International Panel on Climate Change. Multi-model analysis, using both flow-analogues and weather regimes methods, show that the inconsistency noticed over recent decades is

  3. Modeling annual extreme temperature using generalized extreme value distribution: A case study in Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hasan, Husna; Salam, Norfatin; Kassim, Suraiya

    2013-04-01

    Extreme temperature of several stations in Malaysia is modeled by fitting the annual maximum to the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. The Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) and Phillips Perron (PP) tests are used to detect stochastic trends among the stations. The Mann-Kendall (MK) test suggests a non-stationary model. Three models are considered for stations with trend and the Likelihood Ratio test is used to determine the best-fitting model. The results show that Subang and Bayan Lepas stations favour a model which is linear for the location parameters while Kota Kinabalu and Sibu stations are suitable with a model in the logarithm of the scale parameters. The return level is the level of events (maximum temperature) which is expected to be exceeded once, on average, in a given number of years, is obtained.

  4. Temperature extremes reduce seagrass growth and induce mortality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Collier, C.J.; Waycott, M.

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Temperature extremes occur during low tide in shallow seagrass meadows. • The effects of temperature extremes were tested experimentally at 35 °C, 40 °C and 43 °C. • 40 °C was a critical threshold with a large impact on growth and mortality. • At 43 °C there was complete mortality after 2–3 days. • Lower light conditions (e.g. poor water quality) led to a greater negative impact. - Abstract: Extreme heating (up to 43 °C measured from five-year temperature records) occurs in shallow coastal seagrass meadows of the Great Barrier Reef at low tide. We measured effective quantum yield (ϕ PSII ), growth, senescence and mortality in four tropical seagrasses to experimental short-duration (2.5 h) spikes in water temperature to 35 °C, 40 °C and 43 °C, for 6 days followed by one day at ambient temperature. Increasing temperature to 35 °C had positive effects on ϕ PSII (the magnitude varied between days and was highly correlated with PPFD), with no effects on growth or mortality. 40 °C represented a critical threshold as there were strong species differences and there was a large impact on growth and mortality. At 43 °C there was complete mortality after 2–3 days. These findings indicate that increasing duration (more days in a row) of thermal events above 40 °C is likely to affect the ecological function of tropical seagrass meadows

  5. Climate Change: A New Metric to Measure Changes in the Frequency of Extreme Temperatures using Record Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munasinghe, L.; Jun, T.; Rind, D. H.

    2012-01-01

    Consensus on global warming is the result of multiple and varying lines of evidence, and one key ramification is the increase in frequency of extreme climate events including record high temperatures. Here we develop a metric- called "record equivalent draws" (RED)-based on record high (low) temperature observations, and show that changes in RED approximate changes in the likelihood of extreme high (low) temperatures. Since we also show that this metric is independent of the specifics of the underlying temperature distributions, RED estimates can be aggregated across different climates to provide a genuinely global assessment of climate change. Using data on monthly average temperatures across the global landmass we find that the frequency of extreme high temperatures increased 10-fold between the first three decades of the last century (1900-1929) and the most recent decade (1999-2008). A more disaggregated analysis shows that the increase in frequency of extreme high temperatures is greater in the tropics than in higher latitudes, a pattern that is not indicated by changes in mean temperature. Our RED estimates also suggest concurrent increases in the frequency of both extreme high and extreme low temperatures during 2002-2008, a period when we observe a plateauing of global mean temperature. Using daily extreme temperature observations, we find that the frequency of extreme high temperatures is greater in the daily minimum temperature time-series compared to the daily maximum temperature time-series. There is no such observable difference in the frequency of extreme low temperatures between the daily minimum and daily maximum.

  6. Assessing the Adequacy of Probability Distributions for Estimating the Extreme Events of Air Temperature in Dabaa Region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    El-Shanshoury, Gh.I.

    2015-01-01

    Assessing the adequacy of probability distributions for estimating the extreme events of air temperature in Dabaa region is one of the pre-requisite s for any design purpose at Dabaa site which can be achieved by probability approach. In the present study, three extreme value distributions are considered and compared to estimate the extreme events of monthly and annual maximum and minimum temperature. These distributions include the Gumbel/Frechet distributions for estimating the extreme maximum values and Gumbel /Weibull distributions for estimating the extreme minimum values. Lieblein technique and Method of Moments are applied for estimating the distribution para meters. Subsequently, the required design values with a given return period of exceedance are obtained. Goodness-of-Fit tests involving Kolmogorov-Smirnov and Anderson-Darling are used for checking the adequacy of fitting the method/distribution for the estimation of maximum/minimum temperature. Mean Absolute Relative Deviation, Root Mean Square Error and Relative Mean Square Deviation are calculated, as the performance indicators, to judge which distribution and method of parameters estimation are the most appropriate one to estimate the extreme temperatures. The present study indicated that the Weibull distribution combined with Method of Moment estimators gives the highest fit, most reliable, accurate predictions for estimating the extreme monthly and annual minimum temperature. The Gumbel distribution combined with Method of Moment estimators showed the highest fit, accurate predictions for the estimation of the extreme monthly and annual maximum temperature except for July, August, October and November. The study shows that the combination of Frechet distribution with Method of Moment is the most accurate for estimating the extreme maximum temperature in July, August and November months while t he Gumbel distribution and Lieblein technique is the best for October

  7. Detection of the relationship between peak temperature and extreme precipitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Y.; Liu, J.; Zhiyong, Y.

    2017-12-01

    Under the background of climate change and human activities, the characteristics and pattern of precipitation have changed significantly in many regions. As the political and cultural center of China, the structure and character of precipitation in Jingjinji District has varied dramatically in recent years. In this paper, the daily precipitation data throughout the period 1960-2013 are selected for analyzing the spatial-temporal variability of precipitation. The results indicate that the frequency and intensity of precipitation presents an increasing trend. Based on the precipitation data, the maximum, minimum and mean precipitation in different temporal and spatial scales is calculated respectively. The temporal and spatial variation of temperature is obtained by using statistical methods. The relationship between temperature and precipitation in different range is analyzed. The curve relates daily precipitation extremes with local temperatures has a peak structure, increasing at the low-medium range of temperature variations but decreasing at high temperatures. The relationship between extreme precipitation is stronger in downtown than that in suburbs.

  8. Spatiotemporal trends in extreme rainfall and temperature indices over Upper Tapi Basin, India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharma, Priyank J.; Loliyana, V. D.; S. R., Resmi; Timbadiya, P. V.; Patel, P. L.

    2017-12-01

    The flood risk across the globe is intensified due to global warming and subsequent increase in extreme temperature and precipitation. The long-term trends in extreme rainfall (1944-2013) and temperature (1969-2012) indices have been investigated at annual, seasonal, and monthly time scales using nonparametric Mann-Kendall (MK), modified Mann-Kendall (MMK), and Sen's slope estimator tests. The extreme rainfall and temperature indices, recommended by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection Monitoring Indices (ETCCDMI), have been analyzed at finer spatial scales for trend detection. The results of trend analyses indicate decreasing trend in annual total rainfall, significant decreasing trend in rainy days, and increasing trend in rainfall intensity over the basin. The seasonal rainfall has been found to decrease for all the seasons except postmonsoon, which could affect the rain-fed agriculture in the basin. The 1- and 5-day annual maximum rainfalls exhibit mixed trends, wherein part of the basin experiences increasing trend, while other parts experience a decreasing trend. The increase in dry spells and concurrent decrease in wet spells are also observed over the basin. The extreme temperature indices revealed increasing trends in hottest and coldest days, while decreasing trends in coldest night are found over most parts of the basin. Further, the diurnal temperature range is also found to increase due to warming tendency in maximum temperature (T max) at a faster rate compared to the minimum temperature (T min). The increase in frequency and magnitude of extreme rainfall in the basin has been attributed to the increasing trend in maximum and minimum temperatures, reducing forest cover, rapid pace of urbanization, increase in human population, and thereby increase in the aerosol content in the atmosphere. The findings of the present study would significantly help in sustainable water resource planning, better decision-making for policy framework, and setting up

  9. Interactive Vegetation Phenology, Soil Moisture, and Monthly Temperature Forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koster, R. D.; Walker, G. K.

    2015-01-01

    The time scales that characterize the variations of vegetation phenology are generally much longer than those that characterize atmospheric processes. The explicit modeling of phenological processes in an atmospheric forecast system thus has the potential to provide skill to subseasonal or seasonal forecasts. We examine this possibility here using a forecast system fitted with a dynamic vegetation phenology model. We perform three experiments, each consisting of 128 independent warm-season monthly forecasts: 1) an experiment in which both soil moisture states and carbon states (e.g., those determining leaf area index) are initialized realistically, 2) an experiment in which the carbon states are prescribed to climatology throughout the forecasts, and 3) an experiment in which both the carbon and soil moisture states are prescribed to climatology throughout the forecasts. Evaluating the monthly forecasts of air temperature in each ensemble against observations, as well as quantifying the inherent predictability of temperature within each ensemble, shows that dynamic phenology can indeed contribute positively to subseasonal forecasts, though only to a small extent, with an impact dwarfed by that of soil moisture.

  10. High prevalence of abnormal motor repertoire at 3 months corrected age in extremely preterm infants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fjørtoft, Toril; Evensen, Kari Anne I; Øberg, Gunn Kristin; Songstad, Nils Thomas; Labori, Cathrine; Silberg, Inger Elisabeth; Loennecken, Marianne; Møinichen, Unn Inger; Vågen, Randi; Støen, Ragnhild; Adde, Lars

    2016-03-01

    To compare early motor repertoire between extremely preterm and term-born infants. An association between the motor repertoire and gestational age and birth weight was explored in extremely preterm infants without severe ultrasound abnormalities. In a multicentre study, the early motor repertoire of 82 infants born extremely preterm (ELGAN:<28 weeks) and/or with extremely low birth weight (ELBW:<1000 g) and 87 term-born infants were assessed by the "Assessment of Motor Repertoire - 2 to 5 Months" (AMR) which is part of Prechtl's "General Movement Assessment", at 12 weeks post-term age. Fidgety movements were classified as normal if present and abnormal if absent, sporadic or exaggerated. Concurrent motor repertoire was classified as normal if smooth and fluent and abnormal if monotonous, stiff, jerky and/or predominantly fast or slow. Eight-teen ELBW/ELGAN infants had abnormal fidgety movements (8 absent, 7 sporadic and 3 exaggerated fidgety movements) compared with 2 control infants (OR:12.0; 95%CI:2.7-53.4) and 46 ELBW/ELGAN infants had abnormal concurrent motor repertoire compared with 17 control infants (OR:5.3; 95%CI:2.6-10.5). Almost all detailed aspects of the AMR differed between the groups. Results were the same when three infants with severe ultrasound abnormalities were excluded. In the remaining ELBW/ELGAN infants, there was no association between motor repertoire and gestational age or birth weight. ELBW/ELGAN infants had poorer quality of early motor repertoire than term-born infants.The findings were not explained by severe abnormalities on neonatal ultrasound scans and were not correlated to the degree of prematurity. The consequences of these abnormal movement patterns remain to be seen in future follow-up studies. Copyright © 2015 European Paediatric Neurology Society. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. The GOCF/AWAP system - forecasting temperature extremes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fawcett, Robert; Hume, Timothy

    2010-01-01

    Gridded hourly temperature forecasts from the Bureau of Meteorology's Gridded Operational Consensus Forecasting (GOCF) system are combined in real time with the Australian Water Availability Project (AWAP) gridded daily temperature analyses to produce gridded daily maximum and minimum temperature forecasts with lead times from one to five days. These forecasts are compared against the historical record of AWAP daily temperature analyses (1911 to present), to identify regions where record or near-record temperatures are predicted to occur. This paper describes the GOCF/AWAP system, showing how the daily maximum and minimum temperature forecasts are prepared from the hourly forecasts, and how they are bias-corrected in real time using the AWAP analyses, against which they are subsequently verified. Using monthly climatologies of long-term daily mean, standard deviation and all-time highest and lowest on record, derived forecast products (for both maximum and minimum temperature) include ordinary and standardised anomalies, 'forecast - highest on record' and 'forecast - lowest on record'. Compensation for the climatological variation across the country is achieved in these last two products, which provide the necessary guidance as to whether or not record-breaking temperatures are expected, by expressing the forecast departure from the previous record in both 0 C and standard deviations.

  12. Climate change and the impact of extreme temperatures on aviation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coffel, E.; Horton, R.

    2014-12-01

    Weather is the most significant factor affecting aircraft operations, accounting for 70-80% of passenger delays and costing airlines hundreds of millions of dollars per year in lost revenue. Temperature and airport elevation significantly influence the maximum allowable takeoff weight of an aircraft by changing the surface air density and thus the lift produced at a given speed. For a given runway length, airport elevation, and aircraft type there is a temperature threshold above which the airplane cannot take off at its maximum weight and thus must be weight restricted. The number of summer days necessitating weight restriction has increased since 1980 along with the observed increase in surface temperature. Climate change is projected to increase mean temperatures at all airports and significantly increase the frequency and severity of extreme heat events at some. These changes will negatively affect aircraft performance, leading to increased weight restrictions especially at airports with short runways and little room to expand. For a Boeing 737-800 aircraft, we find that the number of weight restriction days between May and September will increase by 50-100% at four major airports in the United States by 2050-2070 under the RCP8.5 high emissions scenario. These performance reductions may have a significant economic effect on the airline industry, leading to lower profits and higher passenger fares. Increased weight restrictions have previously been identified as potential impacts of climate change, but this study is the first to quantify the effect of higher temperatures on commercial aviation.

  13. A complex autoregressive model and application to monthly temperature forecasts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    X. Gu

    2005-11-01

    Full Text Available A complex autoregressive model was established based on the mathematic derivation of the least squares for the complex number domain which is referred to as the complex least squares. The model is different from the conventional way that the real number and the imaginary number are separately calculated. An application of this new model shows a better forecast than forecasts from other conventional statistical models, in predicting monthly temperature anomalies in July at 160 meteorological stations in mainland China. The conventional statistical models include an autoregressive model, where the real number and the imaginary number are separately disposed, an autoregressive model in the real number domain, and a persistence-forecast model.

  14. Urban climate effects on extreme temperatures in Madison, Wisconsin, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schatz, Jason; Kucharik, Christopher J.

    2015-09-01

    As climate change increases the frequency and intensity of extreme heat, cities and their urban heat island (UHI) effects are growing, as are the urban populations encountering them. These mutually reinforcing trends present a growing risk for urban populations. However, we have limited understanding of urban climates during extreme temperature episodes, when additional heat from the UHI may be most consequential. We observed a historically hot summer and historically cold winter using an array of up to 150 temperature and relative humidity sensors in and around Madison, Wisconsin, an urban area of population 402 000 surrounded by lakes and a rural landscape of agriculture, forests, wetlands, and grasslands. In the summer of 2012 (third hottest since 1869), Madison’s urban areas experienced up to twice as many hours ⩾32.2 °C (90 °F), mean July TMAX up to 1.8 °C higher, and mean July TMIN up to 5.3 °C higher than rural areas. During a record setting heat wave, dense urban areas spent over four consecutive nights above the National Weather Service nighttime heat stress threshold of 26.7 °C (80 °F), while rural areas fell below 26.7 °C nearly every night. In the winter of 2013-14 (coldest in 35 years), Madison’s most densely built urban areas experienced up to 40% fewer hours ⩽-17.8 °C (0 °F), mean January TMAX up to 1 °C higher, and mean January TMIN up to 3 °C higher than rural areas. Spatially, the UHI tended to be most intense in areas with higher population densities. Temporally, both daytime and nighttime UHIs tended to be slightly more intense during more-extreme heat days compared to average summer days. These results help us understand the climates for which cities must prepare in a warming, urbanizing world.

  15. High-Resolution Dynamical Downscaling Ensemble Projections of Future Extreme Temperature Distributions for the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zobel, Zachary; Wang, Jiali; Wuebbles, Donald J.; Kotamarthi, V. Rao

    2017-12-01

    The aim of this study is to examine projections of extreme temperatures over the continental United States (CONUS) for the 21st century using an ensemble of high spatial resolution dynamically downscaled model simulations with different boundary conditions. The downscaling uses the Weather Research and Forecast model at a spatial resolution of 12 km along with outputs from three different Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 global climate models that provide boundary conditions under two different future greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration trajectories. The results from two decadal-length time slices (2045-2054 and 2085-2094) are compared with a historical decade (1995-2004). Probability density functions of daily maximum/minimum temperatures are analyzed over seven climatologically cohesive regions of the CONUS. The impacts of different boundary conditions as well as future GHG concentrations on extreme events such as heat waves and days with temperature higher than 95°F are also investigated. The results show that the intensity of extreme warm temperature in future summer is significantly increased, while the frequency of extreme cold temperature in future winter decreases. The distribution of summer daily maximum temperature experiences a significant warm-side shift and increased variability, while the distribution of winter daily minimum temperature is projected to have a less significant warm-side shift with decreased variability. Using "business-as-usual" scenario, 5-day heat waves are projected to occur at least 5-10 times per year in most CONUS and ≥95°F days will increase by 1-2 months by the end of the century.

  16. Regional amplification of extreme temperatures strongly controlled by soil moisture-temperature feedbacks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vogel, M.; Orth, R.; Seneviratne, S. I.

    2016-12-01

    Land temperatures, and in particular hot extremes, will likely increase by more than 2° C in many regions, even in the case that the global temperature increase with respect to pre-industrial levels can be limited to 2°C. We investigate here the role of soil moisture-temperature feedbacks for projected changes of extreme temperatures by comparing experiments from the GLACE-CMIP5 (Global Land-Atmosphere Coupling Experiment - Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) project. In particular, we consider fully coupled experiments with all 6 involved GCMs and corresponding experiments where soil moisture is fixed to the local present-day seasonal cycle until the end of the 21st century. We consider the yearly hottest days and apply a scaling approach whereby we relate changes of hottest days to global mean temperature increase. We find that soil moisture-temperature coupling significantly contributes to additional future warming of extreme temperatures in many regions: In particular, it can explain more than 70% of the warming amplification of hottest days compared to global mean temperature in Central Europe, Central North America and Northern Australia, and around 50% of this signal in the Amazonian Region and Southern Africa.

  17. Lower extremity revascularization using directional atherectomy: 12-month prospective results of the DEFINITIVE LE study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKinsey, James F; Zeller, Thomas; Rocha-Singh, Krishna J; Jaff, Michael R; Garcia, Lawrence A

    2014-08-01

    The aim of this study was to assess the safety and effectiveness of directional atherectomy (DA) for endovascular treatment of peripheral arterial disease (PAD) in infrainguinal arteries in patients with claudication or critical limb ischemia. To date, no prospective, multicenter, independently-adjudicated study has evaluated the effectiveness and durability of DA in the treatment of PAD. Previous DA studies have not been prospectively powered to evaluate any differences in outcomes in patients with and without diabetes. DEFINITIVE LE (Determination of EFfectiveness of the SilverHawk(®) PerIpheral Plaque ExcisioN System (SIlverHawk Device) for the Treatment of Infrainguinal VEssels / Lower Extremities) prospectively enrolled subjects at 47 multinational centers with an infrainguinal lesion length up to 20 cm. Primary endpoints were defined as primary patency at 12 months for claudicants and freedom from major unplanned amputation for critical limb ischemia (CLI) subjects. A pre-specified statistical hypothesis evaluated noninferiority of primary patency in diabetic versus nondiabetic claudicants. Independent angiographic and sonographic core laboratories assessed outcomes, and events were adjudicated by a clinical events committee. A total of 800 subjects were enrolled. The 12-month primary patency was 78% (95% confidence interval: 74.0% to 80.6%) in claudicants, with a 77% rate in the diabetic subgroup versus 78% in the nondiabetic subgroup (noninferior, p < 0.001). The rate of freedom from major unplanned amputation of the target limb at 12 months in CLI subjects was 95% (95% confidence interval: 90.7% to 97.4%). Periprocedural adverse events included embolization (3.8%), perforation (5.3%), and abrupt closure (2.0%). The bail-out stent rate was 3.2%. The DEFINITIVE LE study demonstrated that DA is a safe and effective treatment modality at 12 months for a diverse patient population with either claudication or CLI. Furthermore, DA was shown to be noninferior for

  18. Temperature extremes reduce seagrass growth and induce mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collier, C J; Waycott, M

    2014-06-30

    Extreme heating (up to 43 °C measured from five-year temperature records) occurs in shallow coastal seagrass meadows of the Great Barrier Reef at low tide. We measured effective quantum yield (ϕPSII), growth, senescence and mortality in four tropical seagrasses to experimental short-duration (2.5h) spikes in water temperature to 35 °C, 40 °C and 43 °C, for 6 days followed by one day at ambient temperature. Increasing temperature to 35 °C had positive effects on ϕPSII (the magnitude varied between days and was highly correlated with PPFD), with no effects on growth or mortality. 40 °C represented a critical threshold as there were strong species differences and there was a large impact on growth and mortality. At 43 °C there was complete mortality after 2-3 days. These findings indicate that increasing duration (more days in a row) of thermal events above 40 °C is likely to affect the ecological function of tropical seagrass meadows. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Qualification of Fiber Optic Cables for Martian Extreme Temperature Environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramesham, Rajeshuni; Lindensmith, Christian A.; Roberts, William T.; Rainen, Richard A.

    2011-01-01

    Means have been developed for enabling fiber optic cables of the Laser Induced Breakdown Spectrometer instrument to survive ground operations plus the nominal 670 Martian conditions that include Martian summer and winter seasons. The purpose of this development was to validate the use of the rover external fiber optic cabling of ChemCam for space applications under the extreme thermal environments to be encountered during the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) mission. Flight-representative fiber optic cables were subjected to extreme temperature thermal cycling of the same diurnal depth (or delta T) as expected in flight, but for three times the expected number of in-flight thermal cycles. The survivability of fiber optic cables was tested for 600 cumulative thermal cycles from -130 to +15 C to cover the winter season, and another 1,410 cumulative cycles from -105 to +40 C to cover the summer season. This test satisfies the required 3 times the design margin that is a total of 2,010 thermal cycles (670 x 3). This development test included functional optical transmission tests during the course of the test. Transmission of the fiber optic cables was performed prior to and after 1,288 thermal cycles and 2,010 thermal cycles. No significant changes in transmission were observed on either of the two representative fiber cables subject through the 3X MSL mission life that is 2,010 thermal cycles.

  20. Spatial distribution of unidirectional trends in temperature and temperature extremes in Pakistan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, Najeebullah; Shahid, Shamsuddin; Ismail, Tarmizi bin; Wang, Xiao-Jun

    2018-06-01

    Pakistan is one of the most vulnerable countries of the world to temperature extremes due to its predominant arid climate and geographic location in the fast temperature rising zone. Spatial distribution of the trends in annual and seasonal temperatures and temperature extremes over Pakistan has been assessed in this study. The gauge-based gridded daily temperature data of Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (BEST) having a spatial resolution of 1° × 1° was used for the assessment of trends over the period 1960-2013 using modified Mann-Kendall test (MMK), which can discriminate the multi-decadal oscillatory variations from secular trends. The results show an increase in the annual average of daily maximum and minimum temperatures in 92 and 99% area of Pakistan respectively at 95% level of confidence. The annual temperature is increasing faster in southern high-temperature region compared to other parts of the country. The minimum temperature is rising faster (0.17-0.37 °C/decade) compared to maximum temperature (0.17-0.29 °C/decade) and therefore declination of diurnal temperature range (DTR) (- 0.15 to - 0.08 °C/decade) in some regions. The annual numbers of both hot and cold days are increasing in whole Pakistan except in the northern sub-Himalayan region. Heat waves are on the rise, especially in the hot Sindh plains and the Southern coastal region, while the cold waves are becoming lesser in the northern cold region. Obtained results contradict with the findings of previous studies on temperature trends, which indicate the need for reassessment of climatic trends in Pakistan using the MMK test to understand the anthropogenic impacts of climate change.

  1. Regional amplification of projected changes in extreme temperatures strongly controlled by soil moisture-temperature feedbacks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vogel, Martha Marie; Orth, René; Cheruy, Frederique; Hagemann, Stefan; Lorenz, Ruth; van den Hurk, Bart; Seneviratne, Sonia Isabelle

    2017-04-01

    Regional hot extremes are projected to increase more strongly than global mean temperature, with substantially larger changes than 2°C even if global warming is limited to this level. We investigate here the role of soil moisture-temperature feedbacks for this response based on multi-model experiments for the 21st century with either interactive or fixed (late 20th century mean seasonal cycle) soil moisture. We analyze changes in the hottest days in each year in both sets of experiments, relate them to the global mean temperature increase, and investigate physical processes leading to these changes. We find that soil moisture-temperature feedbacks significantly contribute to the amplified warming of hottest days compared to that of global mean temperature. This contribution reaches more than 70% in Central Europe and Central North America and between 42%-52% in Amazonia, Northern Australia and Southern Africa. Soil moisture trends (multi-decadal soil moisture variability) are more important for this response than short-term (e.g. seasonal, interannual) soil moisture variability. These results are relevant for reducing uncertainties in regional temperature projections. Vogel, M.M. et al.,2017. Regional amplification of projected changes in extreme temperatures strongly controlled by soil moisture-temperature feedbacks. Geophysical Research Letters, accepted.

  2. Regional amplification of projected changes in extreme temperatures strongly controlled by soil moisture-temperature feedbacks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vogel, M. M.; Orth, R.; Cheruy, F.; Hagemann, S.; Lorenz, R.; Hurk, B. J. J. M.; Seneviratne, S. I.

    2017-02-01

    Regional hot extremes are projected to increase more strongly than global mean temperature, with substantially larger changes than 2°C even if global warming is limited to this level. We investigate the role of soil moisture-temperature feedbacks for this response based on multimodel experiments for the 21st century with either interactive or fixed (late 20th century mean seasonal cycle) soil moisture. We analyze changes in the hottest days in each year in both sets of experiments, relate them to the global mean temperature increase, and investigate processes leading to these changes. We find that soil moisture-temperature feedbacks significantly contribute to the amplified warming of the hottest days compared to that of global mean temperature. This contribution reaches more than 70% in Central Europe and Central North America. Soil moisture trends are more important for this response than short-term soil moisture variability. These results are relevant for reducing uncertainties in regional temperature projections.

  3. Soil response to long-term projections of extreme temperature and precipitation in the southern La Plata Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pántano, Vanesa C.; Penalba, Olga C.

    2017-12-01

    Projected changes were estimated considering the main variables which take part in soil-atmosphere interaction. The analysis was focused on the potential impact of these changes on soil hydric condition under extreme precipitation and evapotranspiration, using the combination of Global Climate Models (GCMs) and observational data. The region of study is the southern La Plata Basin that covers part of Argentine territory, where rainfed agriculture production is one of the most important economic activities. Monthly precipitation and maximum and minimum temperatures were used from high quality-controlled observed data from 46 meteorological stations and the ensemble of seven CMIP5 GCMs in two periods: 1970-2005 and 2065-2100. Projected changes in monthly effective temperature and precipitation were analysed. These changes were combined with observed series for each probabilistic interval. The result was used as input variables for the water balance model in order to obtain consequent soil hydric condition (deficit or excess). Effective temperature and precipitation are expected to increase according to the projections of GCMs, with few exceptions. The analysis revealed increase (decrease) in the prevalence of evapotranspiration over precipitation, during spring (winter). Projections for autumn months show precipitation higher than potential evapotranspiration more frequently. Under dry extremes, the analysis revealed higher projected deficit conditions, impacting on crop development. On the other hand, under wet extremes, excess would reach higher values only in particular months. During December, projected increase in temperatures reduces the impact of extreme high precipitation but favours deficit conditions, affecting flower-fructification stage of summer crops.

  4. Pseudo-radar algorithms with two extremely wet months of disdrometer data in the Paris area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gires, A.; Tchiguirinskaia, I.; Schertzer, D.

    2018-05-01

    Disdrometer data collected during the two extremely wet months of May and June 2016 at the Ecole des Ponts ParisTech are used to get insights on radar algorithms. The rain rate and pseudo-radar quantities (horizontal and vertical reflectivity, specific differential phase shift) are all estimated over several durations with the help of drop size distributions (DSD) collected at 30 s time steps. The pseudo-radar quantities are defined with simplifying hypotheses, in particular on the DSD homogeneity. First it appears that the parameters of the standard radar relations Zh - R, R - Kdp and R - Zh - Zdr for these pseudo-radar quantities exhibit strong variability between events and even within an event. Second an innovative methodology that relies on checking the ability of a given algorithm to reproduce the good scale invariant multifractal behaviour (on scales 30 s - few h) observed on rainfall time series is implemented. In this framework, the classical hybrid model (Zh - R for low rain rates and R - Kdp for great ones) performs best, as well as the local estimates of the radar relations' parameters. However, we emphasise that due to the hypotheses on which they rely these observations cannot be straightforwardly extended to real radar quantities.

  5. Mathematical Analysis of Extremity Immersion Cooling for Brain Temperature Management

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Xu, Xiaojiang; Santee, William; Berglund, Larry; Gonzalez, Richard

    2004-01-01

    .... As blood flow rates and surface-to-volume ratios are generally high in the extremities, heat exchange between the body and the environment through the extremities is an important path for heat exchange...

  6. Evaluation of extreme temperature events in northern Spain based on process control charts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villeta, M.; Valencia, J. L.; Saá, A.; Tarquis, A. M.

    2018-02-01

    Extreme climate events have recently attracted the attention of a growing number of researchers because these events impose a large cost on agriculture and associated insurance planning. This study focuses on extreme temperature events and proposes a new method for their evaluation based on statistical process control tools, which are unusual in climate studies. A series of minimum and maximum daily temperatures for 12 geographical areas of a Spanish region between 1931 and 2009 were evaluated by applying statistical process control charts to statistically test whether evidence existed for an increase or a decrease of extreme temperature events. Specification limits were determined for each geographical area and used to define four types of extreme anomalies: lower and upper extremes for the minimum and maximum anomalies. A new binomial Markov extended process that considers the autocorrelation between extreme temperature events was generated for each geographical area and extreme anomaly type to establish the attribute control charts for the annual fraction of extreme days and to monitor the occurrence of annual extreme days. This method was used to assess the significance of changes and trends of extreme temperature events in the analysed region. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of an attribute control chart for evaluating extreme temperature events. For example, the evaluation of extreme maximum temperature events using the proposed statistical process control charts was consistent with the evidence of an increase in maximum temperatures during the last decades of the last century.

  7. Performance of High Temperature Operational Amplifier, Type LM2904WH, under Extreme Temperatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patterson, Richard; Hammoud, Ahmad; Elbuluk, Malik

    2008-01-01

    Operation of electronic parts and circuits under extreme temperatures is anticipated in NASA space exploration missions as well as terrestrial applications. Exposure of electronics to extreme temperatures and wide-range thermal swings greatly affects their performance via induced changes in the semiconductor material properties, packaging and interconnects, or due to incompatibility issues between interfaces that result from thermal expansion/contraction mismatch. Electronics that are designed to withstand operation and perform efficiently in extreme temperatures would mitigate risks for failure due to thermal stresses and, therefore, improve system reliability. In addition, they contribute to reducing system size and weight, simplifying its design, and reducing development cost through the elimination of otherwise required thermal control elements for proper ambient operation. A large DC voltage gain (100 dB) operational amplifier with a maximum junction temperature of 150 C was recently introduced by STMicroelectronics [1]. This LM2904WH chip comes in a plastic package and is designed specifically for automotive and industrial control systems. It operates from a single power supply over a wide range of voltages, and it consists of two independent, high gain, internally frequency compensated operational amplifiers. Table I shows some of the device manufacturer s specifications.

  8. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) One Month Probabilistic Temperature Outlook for the Contiguous United States and Alaska

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) issues a probabilistic one-month temperature outlook for the United States twice a month. CPC issues an initial monthly outlook...

  9. Temperature-field phase diagram of extreme magnetoresistance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fallah Tafti, Fazel; Gibson, Quinn; Kushwaha, Satya; Krizan, Jason W; Haldolaarachchige, Neel; Cava, Robert Joseph

    2016-06-21

    The recent discovery of extreme magnetoresistance (XMR) in LaSb introduced lanthanum monopnictides as a new platform to study this effect in the absence of broken inversion symmetry or protected linear band crossing. In this work, we report XMR in LaBi. Through a comparative study of magnetotransport effects in LaBi and LaSb, we construct a temperature-field phase diagram with triangular shape that illustrates how a magnetic field tunes the electronic behavior in these materials. We show that the triangular phase diagram can be generalized to other topological semimetals with different crystal structures and different chemical compositions. By comparing our experimental results to band structure calculations, we suggest that XMR in LaBi and LaSb originates from a combination of compensated electron-hole pockets and a particular orbital texture on the electron pocket. Such orbital texture is likely to be a generic feature of various topological semimetals, giving rise to their small residual resistivity at zero field and subject to strong scattering induced by a magnetic field.

  10. Historical and projected trends in temperature and precipitation extremes in Australia in observations and CMIP5

    OpenAIRE

    Alexander, Lisa V.; Arblaster, Julie M.

    2017-01-01

    This study expands previous work on climate extremes in Australia by investigating the simulation of a large number of extremes indices in the CMIP5 multi-model dataset and comparing them to multiple observational datasets over a century of observed data using consistent methods. We calculate 24 indices representing extremes of temperature and precipitation from 1911 to 2010 over Australia and show that there have been significant observed trends in temperature extremes associated with warmin...

  11. Forecast models for urban extreme temperatures : Karachi region as a case study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hussain, M.A.; Abbas, A.; Ansari, M.R.K.

    2010-01-01

    The climatic signature of global warming is both local and global. The forcing by increasing greenhouse gases is global, so there is clearly a global component to the climatic signature. Moreover, the damaging impacts of global warming are manifesting themselves around the world in the form of extreme weather events like storms, tornadoes, floods and droughts, all of which have been escalating in frequency and intensity. Furthermore, it is a well-known fact that there is high degree of uncertainty surrounding projections of basic climate variables, such as temperature and precipitation. However, numerous authors have explored many of these effects individually and have begun exploring the interactions between climate change-induced impacts in different sectors of urban activities. Therefore, it is safe to say that an attempt to conduct a definitive, comprehensive analysis of all the potential impacts of climate change on the urban structure is premature at present. This communication attempts to examine the trends in maximum monthly urban temperature fluctuations. Analysis reveals increasing trends in urban temperature fluctuations showing effect of Karachi industrializations. Forecast models also suggest future scenario with respect to occurrence of extreme temperature. The analysis carried out in this work would be useful for urban planners for sustainable future development, economists and environmentalists etc. (author)

  12. Arctic daily temperature and precipitation extremes: Observed and simulated physical behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glisan, Justin Michael

    Simulations using a six-member ensemble of Pan-Arctic WRF (PAW) were produced on two Arctic domains with 50-km resolution to analyze precipitation and temperature extremes for various periods. The first study used a domain developed for the Regional Arctic Climate Model (RACM). Initial simulations revealed deep atmospheric circulation biases over the northern Pacific Ocean, manifested in pressure, geopotential height, and temperature fields. Possible remedies to correct these large biases, such as modifying the physical domain or using different initial/boundary conditions, were unsuccessful. Spectral (interior) nudging was introduced as a way of constraining the model to be more consistent with observed behavior. However, such control over numerical model behavior raises concerns over how much nudging may affect unforced variability and extremes. Strong nudging may reduce or filter out extreme events, since the nudging pushes the model toward a relatively smooth, large-scale state. The question then becomes---what is the minimum spectral nudging needed to correct biases while not limiting the simulation of extreme events? To determine this, we use varying degrees of spectral nudging, using WRF's standard nudging as a reference point during January and July 2007. Results suggest that there is a marked lack of sensitivity to varying degrees of nudging. Moreover, given that nudging is an artificial forcing applied in the model, an important outcome of this work is that nudging strength apparently can be considerably smaller than WRF's standard strength and still produce reliable simulations. In the remaining studies, we used the same PAW setup to analyze daily precipitation extremes simulated over a 19-year period on the CORDEX Arctic domain for winter and summer. We defined these seasons as the three-month period leading up to and including the climatological sea ice maximum and minimum, respectively. Analysis focused on four North American regions defined using

  13. Object exploration in extremely preterm infants between 6 and 9 months and relation to cognitive and language development at 24 months.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zuccarini, Mariagrazia; Guarini, Annalisa; Savini, Silvia; Iverson, Jana M; Aureli, Tiziana; Alessandroni, Rosina; Faldella, Giacomo; Sansavini, Alessandra

    2017-09-01

    Although early object exploration is considered a key ability for subsequent achievements, very few studies have analyzed its development in extremely low gestational age infants (ELGA- GA language skills. The present study examined developmental change in Motor Object Exploration (MOE) and different types of MOE (Holding, Oral, Manual and Manual Rhythmic Exploration) in 20 ELGA and 20 full term (FT) infants observed during mother-infant play interaction at 6 and 9 months. It also explored whether specific types of MOE were longitudinally related to 24-month language and cognitive abilities (GMDS-R scores). ELGA infants increased MOE duration from 6 to 9 months, eliminating the initial difference with FT infants. In addition, ELGA infants showed a different pattern of Oral Exploration, that did not increase at 6 months and decrease at 9 months. Oral and Manual Exploration durations at 6 months were longitudinally related to 24-month GMDS-R language and cognitive performance scores respectively. We discuss the relevance of assessing early exploratory abilities in ELGA infants in order to implement customized intervention programs for supporting the development of these skills. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Prevalence, incidence and course of lower extremity injuries in runners during a 12-month follow-up period

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Poppel van, D.; Scholten-Peeters, G G M; van Middelkoop, M.; Verhagen, Arianne P

    2014-01-01

    To describe the incidence, 12-month prevalence, and course of lower extremity injuries that occurred during and after the Amgen Singelloop Breda in 2009. The design was based on a prospective cohort study with a population-based setting. In total, 3605 registered runners received a web-based

  15. 1994 Average Monthly Sea Surface Temperature for California

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NOAA/ NASA AVHRR Oceans Pathfinder sea surface temperature data are derived from the 5-channel Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometers (AVHRR) on board the...

  16. 1993 Average Monthly Sea Surface Temperature for California

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NOAA/NASA AVHRR Oceans Pathfinder sea surface temperature data are derived from the 5-channel Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometers (AVHRR) on board the NOAA...

  17. Compound summer temperature and precipitation extremes over central Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sedlmeier, Katrin; Feldmann, H.; Schädler, G.

    2018-02-01

    Reliable knowledge of the near-future climate change signal of extremes is important for adaptation and mitigation strategies. Especially compound extremes, like heat and drought occurring simultaneously, may have a greater impact on society than their univariate counterparts and have recently become an active field of study. In this paper, we use a 12-member ensemble of high-resolution (7 km) regional climate simulations with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM over central Europe to analyze the climate change signal and its uncertainty for compound heat and drought extremes in summer by two different measures: one describing absolute (i.e., number of exceedances of absolute thresholds like hot days), the other relative (i.e., number of exceedances of time series intrinsic thresholds) compound extreme events. Changes are assessed between a reference period (1971-2000) and a projection period (2021-2050). Our findings show an increase in the number of absolute compound events for the whole investigation area. The change signal of relative extremes is more region-dependent, but there is a strong signal change in the southern and eastern parts of Germany and the neighboring countries. Especially the Czech Republic shows strong change in absolute and relative extreme events.

  18. Doxapram and developmental delay at 12 months in children born extremely preterm

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lando, Ane; Klamer, Anja; Jonsbo, Finn

    2005-01-01

    AIM: To examine the relation of doxapram to a developmental score achieved by a structured telephone interview in a group of extremely-preterm-born children. METHODS: Parents of 88 children born extremely preterm were contacted by telephone and interviewed by a structured questionnaire (R-PDQ) wh...... the corrected age of their child was 9-15 mo. RESULTS: We found that doxapram treatment was associated with a deficit in age-adjusted R-PDQ score. CONCLUSION: Doxapram may have a negative effect on neurodevelopmental outcome....

  19. Improving simulated long-term responses of vegetation to temperature and precipitation extremes using the ACME land model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ricciuto, D. M.; Warren, J.; Guha, A.

    2017-12-01

    While carbon and energy fluxes in current Earth system models generally have reasonable instantaneous responses to extreme temperature and precipitation events, they often do not adequately represent the long-term impacts of these events. For example, simulated net primary productivity (NPP) may decrease during an extreme heat wave or drought, but may recover rapidly to pre-event levels following the conclusion of the extreme event. However, field measurements indicate that long-lasting damage to leaves and other plant components often occur, potentially affecting the carbon and energy balance for months after the extreme event. The duration and frequency of such extreme conditions is likely to shift in the future, and therefore it is critical for Earth system models to better represent these processes for more accurate predictions of future vegetation productivity and land-atmosphere feedbacks. Here we modify the structure of the Accelerated Climate Model for Energy (ACME) land surface model to represent long-term impacts and test the improved model against observations from experiments that applied extreme conditions in growth chambers. Additionally, we test the model against eddy covariance measurements that followed extreme conditions at selected locations in North America, and against satellite-measured vegetation indices following regional extreme events.

  20. Monthly Mean Temperature Observation for Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Forecast Divisions

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This ASCII dataset contains monthly mean temperatures for 102 Forecast Divisions within the conterminous U.S. and is derived from the monthly NCDC climate division...

  1. Climate change scenarios of extreme temperatures and atmospheric humidity for Mexico

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tejeda-Martinez, A. [Departamento de Ciencias Atmosfericas, Universidad Veracruzana, Xalapa, Veracruz (Mexico)]. E-mail: atejeda@uv.mx; Conde-Alvarez, C. [Centro de Ciencias de la Atmosfera, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Mexico, D.F. (Mexico); Valencia-Treviso, L.E. [Departamento de Ciencias Atmosfericas, Universidad Veracruzana, Xalapa, Veracruz (Mexico)

    2008-10-15

    The following study explores climatic change scenarios of extreme temperature and atmospheric humidity for the 2020 and 2050 decades. They were created for Mexico through the GFDLR30, ECHAM4 and HadCM2 general circulation models. Base scenario conditions were associated with the normal climatological conditions for the period 1961-1990, with a database of 50 surface observatories. It was necessary to empirically estimate the missing data in approximately half of the pressure measurements. For the period 1961-1990, statistical models of the monthly means of maximum and minimum temperatures and atmospheric humidity (relative and specific) were obtained from the observed data of temperature, solar radiation and precipitation. Based on the simulations of the GFDLR30, ECHAM4 and HADCM2 models, a future scenario of monthly means of maximum and minimum temperatures and humidity in climatic change conditions was created. The results shown are for the representative months of winter (January) and summer (July). [Spanish] En este articulo se presentan escenarios de cambio climatico referidos a temperaturas extremas y humedad atmosferica para las decadas de 2020 y 2050. Fueron generados para Mexico a partir de los modelos de circulacion general GFDLR30, ECHAM4 y HADCM2. El escenario base corresponde a las normales climatologicas del periodo 1961-1990 para 50 observatorios de superficie. Para la mitad de ellos fue necesario estimar empiricamente la presion atmosferica a partir de la altitud y para la totalidad se obtuvieron modelos estadisticos de los promedios mensuales de temperaturas maxima y minima asi como de humedad atmosferica (relativa y especifica). Esos modelos estadisticos, combinados con las salidas de los modelos de circulacion general mencionados, produjeron escenarios futuros de medias mensuales de temperaturas extremas y de humedad bajo condiciones de cambio climatico. Se mostraran los resultados para un mes representativo del invierno (enero) y otro del verano

  2. Evaluation of COTS Electronic Parts for Extreme Temperature Use in NASA Missions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patterson, Richard L.; Hammoud, Ahmad; Elbuluk, Malik

    2008-01-01

    Electronic systems capable of extreme temperature operation are required for many future NASA space exploration missions where it is desirable to have smaller, lighter, and less expensive spacecraft and probes. Presently, spacecraft on-board electronics are maintained at about room temperature by use of thermal control systems. An Extreme Temperature Electronics Program at the NASA Glenn Research Center focuses on development of electronics suitable for space exploration missions. The effects of exposure to extreme temperatures and thermal cycling are being investigated for commercial-off-the-shelf components as well as for components specially developed for harsh environments. An overview of this program along with selected data is presented.

  3. Extreme temperature and oil contamination shape the relative abundance of copepod species in the Arctic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dinh, Khuong Van; Nielsen, Torkel Gissel

    is of north Atlantic origin. Pyrene is one of the most toxic components of crude oil to marine copepods. The temperatures of 2, 6 and 10°C represent the mean sea water temperature, the 4°C increase in mean temperature by 2100 as predicted by IPCC scenario RCP8.5 (2013) and the extreme sea water temperature...

  4. Critical care at extremes of temperature: effects on patients, staff and equipment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hindle, Elise M; Henning, J D

    2014-12-01

    Modern travel and military operations have led to a significant increase in the need to provide medical care in extreme climates. Presently, there are few data on what happens to the doctor, their drugs and equipment when exposed to these extremes. A review was undertaken to find out the effects of 'extreme heat or cold' on anaesthesia and critical care; in addition, subject matter experts were contacted directly. Both extreme heat and extreme cold can cause a marked physiological response in a critically ill patient and the doctor treating these patients may also suffer a decrement in both physical and mental functioning. Equipment can malfunction when exposed to extremes of temperature and should ideally be stored and operated in a climatically controlled environment. Many drugs have a narrow range of temperatures in which they remain useable though some have been shown to remain effective if exposed to extremes of temperature for a short period of time. All personnel embarking on an expedition to an extreme temperature zone should be of sufficient physical robustness and ideally should have a period of acclimatisation which may help mitigate against some of the physiological effects of exposure to extreme heat or extreme cold. Expedition planners should aim to provide climatic control for drugs and equipment and should have logistical plans for replenishment of drugs and medical evacuation of casualties. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  5. Extreme temperatures and out-of-hospital coronary deaths in six large Chinese cities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Renjie; Li, Tiantian; Cai, Jing; Yan, Meilin; Zhao, Zhuohui; Kan, Haidong

    2014-12-01

    The seasonal trend of out-of-hospital coronary death (OHCD) and sudden cardiac death has been observed, but whether extreme temperature serves as a risk factor is rarely investigated. We therefore aimed to evaluate the impact of extreme temperatures on OHCDs in China. We obtained death records of 126,925 OHCDs from six large Chinese cities (Harbin, Beijing, Tianjin, Nanjing, Shanghai and Guangzhou) during the period 2009-2011. The short-term associations between extreme temperature and OHCDs were analysed with time-series methods in each city, using generalised additive Poisson regression models. We specified distributed lag non-linear models in studying the delayed effects of extreme temperature. We then applied Bayesian hierarchical models to combine the city-specific effect estimates. The associations between extreme temperature and OHCDs were almost U-shaped or J-shaped. The pooled relative risks (RRs) of extreme cold temperatures over the lags 0-14 days comparing the 1st and 25th centile temperatures were 1.49 (95% posterior interval (PI) 1.26-1.76); the pooled RRs of extreme hot temperatures comparing the 99th and 75th centile temperatures were 1.53 (95% PI 1.27-1.84) for OHCDs. The RRs of extreme temperature on OHCD were higher if the patients with coronary heart disease were old, male and less educated. This multicity epidemiological study suggested that both extreme cold and hot temperatures posed significant risks on OHCDs, and might have important public health implications for the prevention of OHCD or sudden cardiac death. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  6. Extreme temperature indices analyses: A case study of five meteorological stations in Peninsular Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hasan, Husna; Salleh, Nur Hanim Mohd

    2015-10-01

    Extreme temperature events affect many human and natural systems. Changes in extreme temperature events can be detected and monitored by developing the indices based on the extreme temperature data. As an effort to provide the understanding of these changes to the public, a study of extreme temperature indices is conducted at five meteorological stations in Peninsular Malaysia. In this study, changes in the means and extreme events of temperature are assessed and compared using the daily maximum and minimum temperature data for the period of 2004 to 2013. The absolute extreme temperature indices; TXx, TXn, TXn and TNn provided by Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) are utilized and linear trends of each index are extracted using least square likelihood method. The results indicate that there exist significant decreasing trend in the TXx index for Kota Bharu station and increasing trend in TNn index for Chuping and Kota Kinabalu stations. The comparison between the trend in mean and extreme temperatures show the same significant tendency for Kota Bharu and Kuala Terengganu stations.

  7. Protein stability and enzyme activity at extreme biological temperatures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Feller, Georges

    2010-01-01

    Psychrophilic microorganisms thrive in permanently cold environments, even at subzero temperatures. To maintain metabolic rates compatible with sustained life, they have improved the dynamics of their protein structures, thereby enabling appropriate molecular motions required for biological activity at low temperatures. As a consequence of this structural flexibility, psychrophilic proteins are unstable and heat-labile. In the upper range of biological temperatures, thermophiles and hyperthermophiles grow at temperatures > 100 0 C and synthesize ultra-stable proteins. However, thermophilic enzymes are nearly inactive at room temperature as a result of their compactness and rigidity. At the molecular level, both types of extremophilic proteins have adapted the same structural factors, but in opposite directions, to address either activity at low temperatures or stability in hot environments. A model based on folding funnels is proposed accounting for the stability-activity relationships in extremophilic proteins. (topical review)

  8. Overnight storage of whole blood: cooling and transporting blood at room temperature under extreme temperature conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thibault, L; Beauséjour, A; Jacques, A; Ducas, E; Tremblay, M

    2014-02-01

    Many countries allow the overnight storage of whole blood (WB) at ambient temperature. Some countries, such as Canada, also require a rapid cooling of WB with an active cooling system. Given the significant operational constraints associated with current cooling systems, an alternative method for cooling and transporting WB at 20-24°C was evaluated. Phase 22 cooling packs (TCP Reliable Inc., USA) were used in combination with vacuum-insulated panel (VIP) boxes. Temperature profiles of simulated WB units were studied in extreme temperatures (-35 and 40°C). The quality of blood components prepared using Phase 22 packs and CompoCool-WB (Fresenius HemoCare, Germany) was studied. Phase 22 packs reduced the temperature of simulated WB bags from 37 to 24°C in 1·7 ± 0·2 h. Used in combination with VIP boxes, Phase 22 packs maintain the temperature of bags between 20 and 24°C for 15 and 24 h, compared to 2 and 11 h with CompoCool-WB, when exposed at -35 and 40°C, respectively. The quality of platelet concentrates and plasma was comparable, regardless of the cooling system used. For red blood cell units, per cent haemolysis on day 42 was slightly higher in products prepared after cooling with Phase 22 packs compared to CompoCool-WB (0·33 ± 0·15% vs. 0·21 ± 0·06%; P environmental conditions. © 2013 International Society of Blood Transfusion.

  9. The association of extreme temperatures and the incidence of tuberculosis in Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onozuka, Daisuke; Hagihara, Akihito

    2015-08-01

    Seasonal variation in the incidence of tuberculosis (TB) has been widely assumed. However, few studies have investigated the association between extreme temperatures and the incidence of TB. We collected data on cases of TB and mean temperature in Fukuoka, Japan for 2008-2012 and used time-series analyses to assess the possible relationship of extreme temperatures with TB incident cases, adjusting for seasonal and interannual variation. Our analysis revealed that the occurrence of extreme heat temperature events resulted in a significant increase in the number of TB cases (relative risk (RR) 1.20, 95 % confidence interval (CI) 1.01-1.43). We also found that the occurrence of extreme cold temperature events resulted in a significant increase in the number of TB cases (RR 1.23, 95 % CI 1.05-1.45). Sex and age did not modify the effect of either heat or cold extremes. Our study provides quantitative evidence that the number of TB cases increased significantly with extreme heat and cold temperatures. The results may help public health officials predict extreme temperature-related TB incidence and prepare for the implementation of preventive public health interventions.

  10. Antarctic Temperature Extremes from MODIS Land Surface Temperatures: New Processing Methods Reveal Data Quality Puzzles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grant, G.; Gallaher, D. W.

    2017-12-01

    New methods for processing massive remotely sensed datasets are used to evaluate Antarctic land surface temperature (LST) extremes. Data from the MODIS/Terra sensor (Collection 6) provides a twice-daily look at Antarctic LSTs over a 17 year period, at a higher spatiotemporal resolution than past studies. Using a data condensation process that creates databases of anomalous values, our processes create statistical images of Antarctic LSTs. In general, the results find few significant trends in extremes; however, they do reveal a puzzling picture of inconsistent cloud detection and possible systemic errors, perhaps due to viewing geometry. Cloud discrimination shows a distinct jump in clear-sky detections starting in 2011, and LSTs around the South Pole exhibit a circular cooling pattern, which may also be related to cloud contamination. Possible root causes are discussed. Ongoing investigations seek to determine whether the results are a natural phenomenon or, as seems likely, the results of sensor degradation or processing artefacts. If the unusual LST patterns or cloud detection discontinuities are natural, they point to new, interesting processes on the Antarctic continent. If the data artefacts are artificial, MODIS LST users should be alerted to the potential issues.

  11. Metal-semiconductor interface in extreme temperature conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bulat, L.P.; Erofeeva, I.A.; Vorobiev, Yu.V.; Gonzalez-Hernandez, J.

    2008-01-01

    We present an investigation of electrons' and phonons' temperatures in the volume of a semiconductor (or metal) sample and at the interface between metal and semiconductor. Two types of mismatch between electrons' and phonons' temperatures take place: at metal-semiconductor interfaces and in the volume of the sample. The temperature mismatch leads to nonlinear terms in expressions for heat and electricity transport. The nonlinear effects should be taken into consideration in the study of electrical and heat transport in composites and in electronic chips

  12. Trend Analysis of Monthly and Annual Temperature Series of Quetta, Pakistan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Farhat Iqbal

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The monthly average temperature series of Quetta – Pakistan from 1950 – 2000 is examined. A straight line is fitted to the data and seasonal variation and trend in temperature for each month of the year were obtained. An overall model is constructed as large variations in the monthly slopes were observed. In order to describe the seasonal pattern and trend in temperature, corresponding to the different months, both sine/cosine waves and sine/cosine waves multiplied by the time were included in the model as independent variables. The lag-1 autocorrelation was found in the residual of the model and hence another model was fitted to the pre-whiten series that shows a good fit ( and is free from correlated residuals. Both parametric and non-parametric tests applied to each month temperature show significant trend in all months except February and March.

  13. Extreme Temperature, Rad-Hard Power Management ASIC, Phase I

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Ridgetop Group will design a rad-hard Application Specific Integrated Circuit (ASIC) for spacecraft power management that is functional over a temperature range of...

  14. Extreme temperature sensing using brillouin scattering in optical fibers

    CERN Document Server

    Fellay, Alexandre

    Stimulated Brillouin scattering in silica-based optical fibers may be considered from two different and complementary standpoints. For a physicist, this interaction of light and pressure wave in a material, or equivalently in quantum theory terms between photons and phonons, gives some glimpses of the atomic structure of the solid and of its vibration modes. For an applied engineer, the same phenomenon may be put to good use as a sensing mechanism for distributed measurements, thanks to the dependence of the scattered light on external parameters such as the temperature, the pressure or the strain applied to the fiber. As far as temperature measurements are concerned, Brillouin-based distributed sensors have progressively gained wide recognition as efficient systems, even if their rather high cost still restricts the number of their applications. Yet they are generally used in a relatively narrow temperature range around the usual ambient temperature; in this domain, the frequency of the scattered light incre...

  15. Electronic Modeling and Design for Extreme Temperatures, Phase I

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — We propose to develop electronics for operation at temperatures that range from -230oC to +130oC. This new technology will minimize the requirements for external...

  16. Trends in extremes of temperature, dew point, and precipitation from long instrumental series from central Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kürbis, K.; Mudelsee, M.; Tetzlaff, G.; Brázdil, R.

    2009-09-01

    For the analysis of trends in weather extremes, we introduce a diagnostic index variable, the exceedance product, which combines intensity and frequency of extremes. We separate trends in higher moments from trends in mean or standard deviation and use bootstrap resampling to evaluate statistical significances. The application of the concept of the exceedance product to daily meteorological time series from Potsdam (1893 to 2005) and Prague-Klementinum (1775 to 2004) reveals that extremely cold winters occurred only until the mid-20th century, whereas warm winters show upward trends. These changes were significant in higher moments of the temperature distribution. In contrast, trends in summer temperature extremes (e.g., the 2003 European heatwave) can be explained by linear changes in mean or standard deviation. While precipitation at Potsdam does not show pronounced trends, dew point does exhibit a change from maximum extremes during the 1960s to minimum extremes during the 1970s.

  17. Effects of Extreme Temperatures on Cause-Specific Cardiovascular Mortality in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xuying; Li, Guoxing; Liu, Liqun; Westerdahl, Dane; Jin, Xiaobin; Pan, Xiaochuan

    2015-12-21

    Limited evidence is available for the effects of extreme temperatures on cause-specific cardiovascular mortality in China. We collected data from Beijing and Shanghai, China, during 2007-2009, including the daily mortality of cardiovascular disease, cerebrovascular disease, ischemic heart disease and hypertensive disease, as well as air pollution concentrations and weather conditions. We used Poisson regression with a distributed lag non-linear model to examine the effects of extremely high and low ambient temperatures on cause-specific cardiovascular mortality. For all cause-specific cardiovascular mortality, Beijing had stronger cold and hot effects than those in Shanghai. The cold effects on cause-specific cardiovascular mortality reached the strongest at lag 0-27, while the hot effects reached the strongest at lag 0-14. The effects of extremely low and high temperatures differed by mortality types in the two cities. Hypertensive disease in Beijing was particularly susceptible to both extremely high and low temperatures; while for Shanghai, people with ischemic heart disease showed the greatest relative risk (RRs = 1.16, 95% CI: 1.03, 1.34) to extremely low temperature. People with hypertensive disease were particularly susceptible to extremely low and high temperatures in Beijing. People with ischemic heart disease in Shanghai showed greater susceptibility to extremely cold days.

  18. Effects of Extreme Temperatures on Cause-Specific Cardiovascular Mortality in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xuying Wang

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Objective: Limited evidence is available for the effects of extreme temperatures on cause-specific cardiovascular mortality in China. Methods: We collected data from Beijing and Shanghai, China, during 2007–2009, including the daily mortality of cardiovascular disease, cerebrovascular disease, ischemic heart disease and hypertensive disease, as well as air pollution concentrations and weather conditions. We used Poisson regression with a distributed lag non-linear model to examine the effects of extremely high and low ambient temperatures on cause-specific cardiovascular mortality. Results: For all cause-specific cardiovascular mortality, Beijing had stronger cold and hot effects than those in Shanghai. The cold effects on cause-specific cardiovascular mortality reached the strongest at lag 0–27, while the hot effects reached the strongest at lag 0–14. The effects of extremely low and high temperatures differed by mortality types in the two cities. Hypertensive disease in Beijing was particularly susceptible to both extremely high and low temperatures; while for Shanghai, people with ischemic heart disease showed the greatest relative risk (RRs = 1.16, 95% CI: 1.03, 1.34 to extremely low temperature. Conclusion: People with hypertensive disease were particularly susceptible to extremely low and high temperatures in Beijing. People with ischemic heart disease in Shanghai showed greater susceptibility to extremely cold days.

  19. Projecting changes in regional temperature and precipitation extremes in the United States

    OpenAIRE

    Justin T. Schoof; Scott M. Robeson

    2016-01-01

    Regional and local climate extremes, and their impacts, result from the multifaceted interplay between large-scale climate forcing, local environmental factors (physiography), and societal vulnerability. In this paper, we review historical and projected changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in the United States, with a focus on strengths and weaknesses of (1) commonly used definitions for extremes such as thresholds and percentiles, (2) statistical approaches to quantifying change...

  20. Use of extremity insulation during whole body hyperthermia to reduce temperature nonuniformity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thrall, D.E.; Page, R.L.

    1987-01-01

    The author previously documented during whole body hyperthermia in dogs using a radiant heating device that temperature at superficial sites, including tibial bone marrow, falls below systemic arterial temperature during the plateau phase of heating. This may be due to direct heat loss to the environment. Sites where temperature is lower than systemic arterial temperature during the plateau phase may become sanctuary sites where tumor deposits are spared because they do not receive the prescribed thermal dose. In an attempt to decrease temperature nonuniformity and increase thermal dose delivered to such superficial sites, extremity insulation has been employed during whole body hyperthermia in dogs. The author measured temperature at cutaneous and subcutaneous sites and within tibial bone marrow in insulated and noninsulated extremities of dogs undergoing whole body hyperthermia in the radiant heating device. The author found that extremity insulation is effective in reducing extremity temperature nonuniformity. Specific results are presented. Extremity insulation may be necessary during whole body hyperthermia to assure that extremity tumor deposits receive a thermal dose similar to that prescribed for the entire body

  1. Extreme warm temperatures alter forest phenology and productivity in Europe

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Crabbe, Richard A.; Dash, J.; Rodriguez-Galiano, V. F.; Janouš, Dalibor; Pavelka, Marian; Marek, Michal V.

    563-564, sep (2016), s. 486-495 ISSN 0048-9697 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : land surface phenology * Envisat MTCI * anomalous temperature * climate variability * lagged effect * forest ecology Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 4.900, year: 2016

  2. Photoionization capable, extreme and vacuum ultraviolet emission in developing low temperature plasmas in air

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stephens, J.; Fierro, A.; Beeson, S.; Laity, G.; Trienekens, D.; Joshi, R.P.; Dickens, J.; Neuber, A.

    2016-01-01

    Experimental observation of photoionization capable extreme ultraviolet and vacuum ultraviolet emission from nanosecond timescale, developing low temperature plasmas (i.e. streamer discharges) in atmospheric air is presented. Applying short high voltage pulses enabled the observation of the onset of

  3. Assessment of the potential forecasting skill of a global hydrological model in reproducing the occurrence of monthly flow extremes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Candogan Yossef

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available As an initial step in assessing the prospect of using global hydrological models (GHMs for hydrological forecasting, this study investigates the skill of the GHM PCR-GLOBWB in reproducing the occurrence of past extremes in monthly discharge on a global scale. Global terrestrial hydrology from 1958 until 2001 is simulated by forcing PCR-GLOBWB with daily meteorological data obtained by downscaling the CRU dataset to daily fields using the ERA-40 reanalysis. Simulated discharge values are compared with observed monthly streamflow records for a selection of 20 large river basins that represent all continents and a wide range of climatic zones.

    We assess model skill in three ways all of which contribute different information on the potential forecasting skill of a GHM. First, the general skill of the model in reproducing hydrographs is evaluated. Second, model skill in reproducing significantly higher and lower flows than the monthly normals is assessed in terms of skill scores used for forecasts of categorical events. Third, model skill in reproducing flood and drought events is assessed by constructing binary contingency tables for floods and droughts for each basin. The skill is then compared to that of a simple estimation of discharge from the water balance (PE.

    The results show that the model has skill in all three types of assessments. After bias correction the model skill in simulating hydrographs is improved considerably. For most basins it is higher than that of the climatology. The skill is highest in reproducing monthly anomalies. The model also has skill in reproducing floods and droughts, with a markedly higher skill in floods. The model skill far exceeds that of the water balance estimate. We conclude that the prospect for using PCR-GLOBWB for monthly and seasonal forecasting of the occurrence of hydrological extremes is positive. We argue that this conclusion applies equally to other similar GHMs and

  4. The nonstationary impact of local temperature changes and ENSO on extreme precipitation at the global scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Qiaohong; Miao, Chiyuan; Qiao, Yuanyuan; Duan, Qingyun

    2017-12-01

    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and local temperature are important drivers of extreme precipitation. Understanding the impact of ENSO and temperature on the risk of extreme precipitation over global land will provide a foundation for risk assessment and climate-adaptive design of infrastructure in a changing climate. In this study, nonstationary generalized extreme value distributions were used to model extreme precipitation over global land for the period 1979-2015, with ENSO indicator and temperature as covariates. Risk factors were estimated to quantify the contrast between the influence of different ENSO phases and temperature. The results show that extreme precipitation is dominated by ENSO over 22% of global land and by temperature over 26% of global land. With a warming climate, the risk of high-intensity daily extreme precipitation increases at high latitudes but decreases in tropical regions. For ENSO, large parts of North America, southern South America, and southeastern and northeastern China are shown to suffer greater risk in El Niño years, with more than double the chance of intense extreme precipitation in El Niño years compared with La Niña years. Moreover, regions with more intense precipitation are more sensitive to ENSO. Global climate models were used to investigate the changing relationship between extreme precipitation and the covariates. The risk of extreme, high-intensity precipitation increases across high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere but decreases in middle and lower latitudes under a warming climate scenario, and will likely trigger increases in severe flooding and droughts across the globe. However, there is some uncertainties associated with the influence of ENSO on predictions of future extreme precipitation, with the spatial extent and risk varying among the different models.

  5. Corresponding Relation between Warm Season Precipitation Extremes and Surface Air Temperature in South China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SUN; Wei; LI; Jian; YU; Ru-Cong

    2013-01-01

    Hourly data of 42 rain gauges over South China during 1966–2005 were used to analyze the corresponding relation between precipitation extremes and surface air temperature in the warm season(May to October).The results show that below 25℃,both daily and hourly precipitation extremes in South China increase with rising temperature.More extreme events transit to the two-time Clausius-Clapeyron(CC)relationship at lower temperatures.Daily as well as hourly precipitation extremes have a decreasing tendency nearly above 25℃,among which the decrease of hourly extremes is much more significant.In order to investigate the efects of rainfall durations,hourly precipitation extremes are presented by short duration and long duration precipitation,respectively.Results show that the dramatic decrease of hourly rainfall intensities above 25℃ is mainly caused by short duration precipitation,and long duration precipitation extremes rarely occur in South China when surface air temperature surpasses 28℃.

  6. Extreme Temperature Performance of Automotive-Grade Small Signal Bipolar Junction Transistors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boomer, Kristen; Damron, Benny; Gray, Josh; Hammoud, Ahmad

    2018-01-01

    Electronics designed for space exploration missions must display efficient and reliable operation under extreme temperature conditions. For example, lunar outposts, Mars rovers and landers, James Webb Space Telescope, Europa orbiter, and deep space probes represent examples of missions where extreme temperatures and thermal cycling are encountered. Switching transistors, small signal as well as power level devices, are widely used in electronic controllers, data instrumentation, and power management and distribution systems. Little is known, however, about their performance in extreme temperature environments beyond their specified operating range; in particular under cryogenic conditions. This report summarizes preliminary results obtained on the evaluation of commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) automotive-grade NPN small signal transistors over a wide temperature range and thermal cycling. The investigations were carried out to establish a baseline on functionality of these transistors and to determine suitability for use outside their recommended temperature limits.

  7. Changes of the Temperature and Precipitation Extremes on Homogenized Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    LAKATOS, Mónika

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate indices to detect changes have been defined in several international projects onclimate change. Climate index calculations require at least daily resolution of time series withoutinhomogeneities, such as transfer of stations, changes in observation practice. In many cases thecharacteristics of the estimated linear trends, calculated from the original and from the homogenizedtime series are significantly different. The ECA&D (European Climate Assessment & Dataset indicesand some other special temperature and precipitation indices of own development were applied to theClimate Database of the Hungarian Meteorological Service. Long term daily maximum, minimum anddaily mean temperature data series and daily precipitation sums were examined. The climate indexcalculation processes were tested on original observations and on homogenized daily data fortemperature; in the case of precipitation a complementation process was performed to fill in the gapsof missing data. Experiences of comparing the climate index calculation results, based on original andcomplemented-homogenized data, are reported in this paper. We present the preliminary result ofclimate index calculations also on gridded (interpolated daily data.

  8. Host adaptation and unexpected symbiont partners enable reef-building corals to tolerate extreme temperatures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howells, Emily J; Abrego, David; Meyer, Eli; Kirk, Nathan L; Burt, John A

    2016-08-01

    Understanding the potential for coral adaptation to warming seas is complicated by interactions between symbiotic partners that define stress responses and the difficulties of tracking selection in natural populations. To overcome these challenges, we characterized the contribution of both animal host and symbiotic algae to thermal tolerance in corals that have already experienced considerable warming on par with end-of-century projections for most coral reefs. Thermal responses in Platygyra daedalea corals from the hot Persian Gulf where summer temperatures reach 36°C were compared with conspecifics from the milder Sea of Oman. Persian Gulf corals had higher rates of survival at elevated temperatures (33 and 36°C) in both the nonsymbiotic larval stage (32-49% higher) and the symbiotic adult life stage (51% higher). Additionally, Persian Gulf hosts had fixed greater potential to mitigate oxidative stress (31-49% higher) and their Symbiodinium partners had better retention of photosynthetic performance under elevated temperature (up to 161% higher). Superior thermal tolerance of Persian Gulf vs. Sea of Oman corals was maintained after 6-month acclimatization to a common ambient environment and was underpinned by genetic divergence in both the coral host and symbiotic algae. In P. daedalea host samples, genomewide SNP variation clustered into two discrete groups corresponding with Persian Gulf and Sea of Oman sites. Symbiodinium within host tissues predominantly belonged to ITS2 rDNA type C3 in the Persian Gulf and type D1a in the Sea of Oman contradicting patterns of Symbiodinium thermal tolerance from other regions. Our findings provide evidence that genetic adaptation of both host and Symbiodinium has enabled corals to cope with extreme temperatures in the Persian Gulf. Thus, the persistence of coral populations under continued warming will likely be determined by evolutionary rates in both, rather than single, symbiotic partners. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  9. Analysis of the relationship between the monthly temperatures and weather types in Iberian Peninsula

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peña Angulo, Dhais; Trigo, Ricardo; Nicola, Cortesi; José Carlos, González-Hidalgo

    2016-04-01

    In this study, the relationship between the atmospheric circulation and weather types and the monthly average maximum and minimum temperatures in the Iberian Peninsula is modeled (period 1950-2010). The temperature data used were obtained from a high spatial resolution (10km x 10km) dataset (MOTEDAS dataset, Gonzalez-Hidalgo et al., 2015a). In addition, a dataset of Portuguese temperatures was used (obtained from the Portuguese Institute of Sea and Atmosphere). The weather type classification used was the one developed by Jenkinson and Collison, which was adapted for the Iberian Peninsula by Trigo and DaCamara (2000), using Sea Level Pressure data from NCAR/NCEP Reanalysis dataset (period 1951-2010). The analysis of the behaviour of monthly temperatures based on the weather types was carried out using a stepwise regression procedure of type forward to estimate temperatures in each cell of the considered grid, for each month, and for both maximum and minimum monthly average temperatures. The model selects the weather types that best estimate the temperatures. From the validation model it was obtained the error distribution in the time (months) and space (Iberian Peninsula). The results show that best estimations are obtained for minimum temperatures, during the winter months and in coastal areas. González-Hidalgo J.C., Peña-Angulo D., Brunetti M., Cortesi, C. (2015a): MOTEDAS: a new monthly temperature database for mainland Spain and the trend in temperature (1951-2010). International Journal of Climatology 31, 715-731. DOI: 10.1002/joc.4298

  10. Investigation into boron reaction with titanium at extreme temperature gradients

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Korchagin, M.A.; Gusenko, S.N.; Aleksandrov, V.V.; Neronov, V.A.

    1981-01-01

    The mechanism of self-propagation high-temperature synthesis of titanium boride is studied using the translucent electron microscopy. Titanium interaction with boron film (approximately 1000 A thick) starts with the metal partial melting. A twozone layer of the reaction products, separating the reagents, is formed. In the zone adjacent to B, Ti 3 B 4 and fusible liquid phases are present. The second zone consists of TiB. The subsequent interaction is realized by Means of the dissolving and absorption by titanium of the layer of products during its continuous increase in boron. TiB 2 formation takes place at subsequent stages of interaction inside Ti liquid particles during their saturation by boron from the products absorbed [ru

  11. Climate Prediction Center(CPC)Monthly U.S. Selected Cities Temperature Summary

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Monthly U.S. reported temperature summaries in degrees Fahrenheit generated from the GTS metar(hourly) and synoptic(6-hourly)observations for selected cities based...

  12. Monthly version of HadISST sea surface temperature state-space components

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — State-Space Decomposition of Monthly version of HadISST sea surface temperature component (1-degree). See Rayner, N. A., Parker, D. E., Horton, E. B., Folland, C....

  13. Climate Prediction Center(CPC) Monthly U.S. Precipitation and Temperature Summary

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Monthly U.S. minimum and maximum temperatures in whole degrees Fahrenheit and reported and estimated precipitation amounts in hundredths of inches(ex 100 is 1.00...

  14. Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature (ERSST) Monthly Analysis, Version 3b

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Version 3b (v3b) of the Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature (ERSST) dataset is a monthly SST analysis on a 2-degree global grid based on the International...

  15. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Three Month Probabilistic Temperature Outlook for the Contiguous United States and Alaska

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) issues a series of thirteen probabilistic three-month temperature outlooks for the United States. CPC issues the thirteen...

  16. Effects of land cover change on temperature and rainfall extremes in multi-model ensemble simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. J. Pitman

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available The impact of historical land use induced land cover change (LULCC on regional-scale climate extremes is examined using four climate models within the Land Use and Climate, IDentification of robust impacts project. To assess those impacts, multiple indices based on daily maximum and minimum temperatures and daily precipitation were used. We contrast the impact of LULCC on extremes with the impact of an increase in atmospheric CO2 from 280 ppmv to 375 ppmv. In general, consistent changes in both high and low temperature extremes are similar to the simulated change in mean temperature caused by LULCC and are restricted to regions of intense modification. The impact of LULCC on both means and on most temperature extremes is statistically significant. While the magnitude of the LULCC-induced change in the extremes can be of similar magnitude to the response to the change in CO2, the impacts of LULCC are much more geographically isolated. For most models, the impacts of LULCC oppose the impact of the increase in CO2 except for one model where the CO2-caused changes in the extremes are amplified. While we find some evidence that individual models respond consistently to LULCC in the simulation of changes in rainfall and rainfall extremes, LULCC's role in affecting rainfall is much less clear and less commonly statistically significant, with the exception of a consistent impact over South East Asia. Since the simulated response of mean and extreme temperatures to LULCC is relatively large, we conclude that unless this forcing is included, we risk erroneous conclusions regarding the drivers of temperature changes over regions of intense LULCC.

  17. Extreme temperatures in Southeast Asia caused by El Niño and worsened by global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thirumalai, Kaustubh; DiNezio, Pedro N; Okumura, Yuko; Deser, Clara

    2017-06-06

    In April 2016, southeast Asia experienced surface air temperatures (SATs) that surpassed national records, exacerbated energy consumption, disrupted agriculture and caused severe human discomfort. Here we show using observations and an ensemble of global warming simulations the combined impact of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon and long-term warming on regional SAT extremes. We find a robust relationship between ENSO and southeast Asian SATs wherein virtually all April extremes occur during El Niño years. We then quantify the relative contributions of long-term warming and the 2015-16 El Niño to the extreme April 2016 SATs. The results indicate that global warming increases the likelihood of record-breaking April extremes where we estimate that 29% of the 2016 anomaly was caused by warming and 49% by El Niño. These post-Niño Aprils can potentially be anticipated a few months in advance, and thus, help societies prepare for the projected continued increases in extremes.

  18. Extreme temperatures in Southeast Asia caused by El Niño and worsened by global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thirumalai, Kaustubh; DiNezio, Pedro N.; Okumura, Yuko; Deser, Clara

    2017-01-01

    In April 2016, southeast Asia experienced surface air temperatures (SATs) that surpassed national records, exacerbated energy consumption, disrupted agriculture and caused severe human discomfort. Here we show using observations and an ensemble of global warming simulations the combined impact of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon and long-term warming on regional SAT extremes. We find a robust relationship between ENSO and southeast Asian SATs wherein virtually all April extremes occur during El Niño years. We then quantify the relative contributions of long-term warming and the 2015–16 El Niño to the extreme April 2016 SATs. The results indicate that global warming increases the likelihood of record-breaking April extremes where we estimate that 29% of the 2016 anomaly was caused by warming and 49% by El Niño. These post-Niño Aprils can potentially be anticipated a few months in advance, and thus, help societies prepare for the projected continued increases in extremes. PMID:28585927

  19. Study on extreme high temperature of cooling water in Chinese coastal nuclear power plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yu Fan; Jiang Ziying

    2012-01-01

    In order to protect aquatic life from the harmful effects of thermal discharge, the appropriate water temperature limits or the scope of the mixing zone is a key issue in the regulatory control of the environmental impact of thermal discharge. Based on the sea surface temperature in the Chinese coastal waters, the extreme value of the seawater temperature change was analyzed by using the Gumbel model. The limit of the design temperature rise of cooling water in the outfall is 9 ℃, and the limit of the temperature rise of cooling water in the edge of the mixing zone is 4 ℃. The extreme high temperature of the cooling water in Chinese coastal nuclear power plant is 37 ℃ in the Bohai Sea, Yellow Sea, and is 40 ℃ in East China Sea, South China Sea. (authors)

  20. Extreme Temperature Exceedances Change more Rapidly Under Future Warming in Regions of non-Gaussian Short Temperature Distribution Tails

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loikith, P. C.; Neelin, J. D.; Meyerson, J.

    2017-12-01

    Regions of shorter-than-Gaussian warm and cold side temperature distribution tails are shown to occur in spatially coherent patterns in the current climate. Under such conditions, warming may be manifested in more complex ways than if the underlying distribution were close to Gaussian. For example, under a uniform warm shift, the simplest prototype for future warming, a location with a short warm side tail would experience a greater increase in extreme warm exceedances compared to if the distribution were Gaussian. Similarly, for a location with a short cold side tail, a uniform warm shift would result in a rapid decrease in extreme cold exceedances. Both scenarios carry major societal and environmental implications including but not limited to negative impacts on human and ecosystem health, agriculture, and the economy. It is therefore important for climate models to be able to realistically reproduce short tails in simulations of historical climate in order to boost confidence in projections of future temperature extremes. Overall, climate models contributing to the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project capture many of the principal observed regions of short tails. This suggests the underlying dynamics and physics occur on scales resolved by the models, and helps build confidence in model projections of extremes. Furthermore, most GCMs show more rapid changes in exceedances of extreme temperature thresholds in regions of short tails. Results therefore suggest that the shape of the tails of the underlying temperature distribution is an indicator of how rapidly a location will experience changes to extreme temperature occurrence under future warming.

  1. Evaluation of empirical relationships between extreme rainfall and daily maximum temperature in Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herath, Sujeewa Malwila; Sarukkalige, Ranjan; Nguyen, Van Thanh Van

    2018-01-01

    Understanding the relationships between extreme daily and sub-daily rainfall events and their governing factors is important in order to analyse the properties of extreme rainfall events in a changing climate. Atmospheric temperature is one of the dominant climate variables which has a strong relationship with extreme rainfall events. In this study, a temperature-rainfall binning technique is used to evaluate the dependency of extreme rainfall on daily maximum temperature. The Clausius-Clapeyron (C-C) relation was found to describe the relationship between daily maximum temperature and a range of rainfall durations from 6 min up to 24 h for seven Australian weather stations, the stations being located in Adelaide, Brisbane, Canberra, Darwin, Melbourne, Perth and Sydney. The analysis shows that the rainfall - temperature scaling varies with location, temperature and rainfall duration. The Darwin Airport station shows a negative scaling relationship, while the other six stations show a positive relationship. To identify the trend in scaling relationship over time the same analysis is conducted using data covering 10 year periods. Results indicate that the dependency of extreme rainfall on temperature also varies with the analysis period. Further, this dependency shows an increasing trend for more extreme short duration rainfall and a decreasing trend for average long duration rainfall events at most stations. Seasonal variations of the scale changing trends were analysed by categorizing the summer and autumn seasons in one group and the winter and spring seasons in another group. Most of 99th percentile of 6 min, 1 h and 24 h rain durations at Perth, Melbourne and Sydney stations show increasing trend for both groups while Adelaide and Darwin show decreasing trend. Furthermore, majority of scaling trend of 50th percentile are decreasing for both groups.

  2. Coldest Temperature Extreme Monotonically Increased and Hottest Extreme Oscillated over Northern Hemisphere Land during Last 114 Years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Chunlüe; Wang, Kaicun

    2016-05-13

    Most studies on global warming rely on global mean surface temperature, whose change is jointly determined by anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs) and natural variability. This introduces a heated debate on whether there is a recent warming hiatus and what caused the hiatus. Here, we presented a novel method and applied it to a 5° × 5° grid of Northern Hemisphere land for the period 1900 to 2013. Our results show that the coldest 5% of minimum temperature anomalies (the coldest deviation) have increased monotonically by 0.22 °C/decade, which reflects well the elevated anthropogenic GHG effect. The warmest 5% of maximum temperature anomalies (the warmest deviation), however, display a significant oscillation following the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), with a warming rate of 0.07 °C/decade from 1900 to 2013. The warmest (0.34 °C/decade) and coldest deviations (0.25 °C/decade) increased at much higher rates over the most recent decade than last century mean values, indicating the hiatus should not be interpreted as a general slowing of climate change. The significant oscillation of the warmest deviation provides an extension of previous study reporting no pause in the hottest temperature extremes since 1979, and first uncovers its increase from 1900 to 1939 and decrease from 1940 to 1969.

  3. Stochastic modelling of the monthly average maximum and minimum temperature patterns in India 1981-2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Narasimha Murthy, K. V.; Saravana, R.; Vijaya Kumar, K.

    2018-04-01

    The paper investigates the stochastic modelling and forecasting of monthly average maximum and minimum temperature patterns through suitable seasonal auto regressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model for the period 1981-2015 in India. The variations and distributions of monthly maximum and minimum temperatures are analyzed through Box plots and cumulative distribution functions. The time series plot indicates that the maximum temperature series contain sharp peaks in almost all the years, while it is not true for the minimum temperature series, so both the series are modelled separately. The possible SARIMA model has been chosen based on observing autocorrelation function (ACF), partial autocorrelation function (PACF), and inverse autocorrelation function (IACF) of the logarithmic transformed temperature series. The SARIMA (1, 0, 0) × (0, 1, 1)12 model is selected for monthly average maximum and minimum temperature series based on minimum Bayesian information criteria. The model parameters are obtained using maximum-likelihood method with the help of standard error of residuals. The adequacy of the selected model is determined using correlation diagnostic checking through ACF, PACF, IACF, and p values of Ljung-Box test statistic of residuals and using normal diagnostic checking through the kernel and normal density curves of histogram and Q-Q plot. Finally, the forecasting of monthly maximum and minimum temperature patterns of India for the next 3 years has been noticed with the help of selected model.

  4. Gram stain microbiological pattern of upper extremities suppuration at Baptist Medical Centre, Ogbomoso Nigeria: a fifteen month review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oke, A J; Olaolorun, D A; Meier, D E; Tarpley, J L

    2011-06-01

    Sixty-eight (68) patients with serious upper extremity suppurative infections, presenting within a period of fifteen (15) months, were prospectively studied clinically, Gram stain of aspirates/pus were performed, specimen cultured, planted, and where indicated glucose levels and haemoglobin genotype determined. Half of the patients had hand infections. Staphylococcus aureus was isolated from thirty-nine (39) patients. Gram Negative bacilli, including Salmonella were more isolated from patients with diabetes mellitus or Hgb SS or SC. The Gram stain results correlated with the culture result 90%. When Gram Positive cocci were demonstrated in the primary microscopic examination, cultures were not mandatory. When no organism was demonstrated on primary Gram stain or the patient was diabetic or a sickler, cultures of the specimens were done. The Gram stain, well performed, remains a useful, inexpensive, technologically appropriate laboratory test for abetting decision making in patients with upper extremity suppurative infections. Organisms encountered in this study included: Staphylococcus aureus, Streptococcus pyogenes, Salmonella typhi, Proteus mirabilis, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, and Coliforms.

  5. Observed changes in seasonal heat waves and warm temperature extremes in the Romanian Carpathians

    Science.gov (United States)

    Micu, Dana; Birsan, Marius-Victor; Dumitrescu, Alexandru; Cheval, Sorin

    2015-04-01

    Extreme high temperature have a large impact on environment and human activities, especially in high elevation areas particularly sensitive to the recent climate warming. The climate of the Romanian Carpathians became warmer particularly in winter, spring and summer, exibiting a significant increasing frequency of warm extremes. The paper investigates the seasonal changes in the frequency, duration and intensity of heat waves in relation to the shifts in the daily distribution of maximum temperatures over a 50-year period of meteorological observations (1961-2010). The paper uses the heat wave definition recommended by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) and exploits the gridded daily dataset of maximum temperature at 0.1° resolution (~10 km) developed in the framework of the CarpatClim project (www.carpatclim.eu). The seasonal changes in heat waves behavior were identified using the Mann-Kendall non-parametric trend test. The results suggest an increase in heat wave frequency and a lengthening of intervals affected by warm temperature extremes all over the study region, which are explained by the shifts in the upper (extreme) tail of the daily maximum temperature distribution in most seasons. The trends are consistent across the region and are well correlated to the positive phases of the East Atlantic Oscillation. Our results are in good agreement with the previous temperature-related studies concerning the Carpathian region. This study was realized within the framework of the project GENCLIM, financed by UEFISCDI, code PN-II 151/2014.

  6. Linking increases in hourly precipitation extremes to atmospheric temperature and moisture changes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lenderink, Geert; Van Meijgaard, Erik

    2010-01-01

    Relations between hourly precipitation extremes and atmospheric temperature and moisture derived for the present-day climate are studied with the aim of understanding the behavior (and the uncertainty in predictions) of hourly precipitation extremes in a changing climate. A dependency of hourly precipitation extremes on the daily mean 2 m temperature of approximately two times the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) relation is found for temperatures above 10 deg. C. This is a robust relation obtained in four observational records across western Europe. A dependency following the CC relation can be explained by the observed increase in atmospheric (absolute) humidity with temperature, whereas the enhanced dependency (compared to the CC relation) appears to be caused by dynamical feedbacks owing to excess latent heat release in extreme showers. Integrations with the KNMI regional climate model RACMO2 at 25 km grid spacing show that changes in hourly precipitation extremes may indeed considerably exceed the prediction from the CC relation. The results suggests that increases of + 70% or even more are possible by the end of this century. However, a different regional model (CLM operated at ETHZ) predicts much smaller increases; this is probably caused by a too strong sensitivity of this model to a decrease in relative humidity.

  7. Scaling of precipitation extremes with temperature in the French Mediterranean region: What explains the hook shape?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drobinski, P.; Alonzo, B.; Bastin, S.; Silva, N. Da; Muller, C.

    2016-04-01

    Expected changes to future extreme precipitation remain a key uncertainty associated with anthropogenic climate change. Extreme precipitation has been proposed to scale with the precipitable water content in the atmosphere. Assuming constant relative humidity, this implies an increase of precipitation extremes at a rate of about 7% °C-1 globally as indicated by the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship. Increases faster and slower than Clausius-Clapeyron have also been reported. In this work, we examine the scaling between precipitation extremes and temperature in the present climate using simulations and measurements from surface weather stations collected in the frame of the HyMeX and MED-CORDEX programs in Southern France. Of particular interest are departures from the Clausius-Clapeyron thermodynamic expectation, their spatial and temporal distribution, and their origin. Looking at the scaling of precipitation extreme with temperature, two regimes emerge which form a hook shape: one at low temperatures (cooler than around 15°C) with rates of increase close to the Clausius-Clapeyron rate and one at high temperatures (warmer than about 15°C) with sub-Clausius-Clapeyron rates and most often negative rates. On average, the region of focus does not seem to exhibit super Clausius-Clapeyron behavior except at some stations, in contrast to earlier studies. Many factors can contribute to departure from Clausius-Clapeyron scaling: time and spatial averaging, choice of scaling temperature (surface versus condensation level), and precipitation efficiency and vertical velocity in updrafts that are not necessarily constant with temperature. But most importantly, the dynamical contribution of orography to precipitation in the fall over this area during the so-called "Cevenoles" events, explains the hook shape of the scaling of precipitation extremes.

  8. Acclimation responses to temperature vary with vertical stratification: implications for vulnerability of soil-dwelling species to extreme temperature events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Dooremalen, Coby; Berg, Matty P; Ellers, Jacintha

    2013-03-01

    The occurrence of summer heat waves is predicted to increase in amplitude and frequency in the near future, but the consequences of such extreme events are largely unknown, especially for belowground organisms. Soil organisms usually exhibit strong vertical stratification, resulting in more frequent exposure to extreme temperatures for surface-dwelling species than for soil-dwelling species. Therefore soil-dwelling species are expected to have poor acclimation responses to cope with temperature changes. We used five species of surface-dwelling and four species of soil-dwelling Collembola that habituate different depths in the soil. We tested for differences in tolerance to extreme temperatures after acclimation to warm and cold conditions. We also tested for differences in acclimation of the underlying physiology by looking at changes in membrane lipid composition. Chill coma recovery time, heat knockdown time and fatty acid profiles were determined after 1 week of acclimation to either 5 or 20 °C. Our results showed that surface-dwelling Collembola better maintained increased heat tolerance across acclimation temperatures, but no such response was found for cold tolerance. Concordantly, four of the five surface-dwelling Collembola showed up to fourfold changes in relative abundance of fatty acids after 1 week of acclimation, whereas none of the soil-dwelling species showed a significant adjustment in fatty acid composition. Strong physiological responses to temperature fluctuations may have become redundant in soil-dwelling species due to the relative thermal stability of their subterranean habitat. Based on the results of the four species studied, we expect that unless soil-dwelling species can temporarily retreat to avoid extreme temperatures, the predicted increase in heat waves under climatic change renders these soil-dwelling species more vulnerable to extinction than species with better physiological capabilities. Being able to act under a larger thermal

  9. SOI N-Channel Field Effect Transistors, CHT-NMOS80, for Extreme Temperatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patterson, Richard L.; Hammoud, Almad

    2009-01-01

    Extreme temperatures, both hot and cold, are anticipated in many of NASA space exploration missions as well as in terrestrial applications. One can seldom find electronics that are capable of operation under both regimes. Even for operation under one (hot or cold) temperature extreme, some thermal controls need to be introduced to provide appropriate ambient temperatures so that spacecraft on-board or field on-site electronic systems work properly. The inclusion of these controls, which comprise of heating elements and radiators along with their associated structures, adds to the complexity in the design of the system, increases cost and weight, and affects overall reliability. Thus, it would be highly desirable and very beneficial to eliminate these thermal measures in order to simplify system's design, improve efficiency, reduce development and launch costs, and improve reliability. These requirements can only be met through the development of electronic parts that are designed for proper and efficient operation under extreme temperature conditions. Silicon-on-insulator (SOI) based devices are finding more use in harsh environments due to the benefits that their inherent design offers in terms of reduced leakage currents, less power consumption, faster switching speeds, good radiation tolerance, and extreme temperature operability. Little is known, however, about their performance at cryogenic temperatures and under wide thermal swings. The objective of this work was to evaluate the performance of a new commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) SOI parts over an extended temperature range and to determine the effects of thermal cycling on their performance. The results will establish a baseline on the suitability of such devices for use in space exploration missions under extreme temperatures, and will aid mission planners and circuit designers in the proper selection of electronic parts and circuits. The electronic part investigated in this work comprised of a CHT-NMOS80

  10. The effects of anesthetic technique and ambient temperature on thermoregulation in lower extremity surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ozer, Ayse B; Tosun, Fadime; Demirel, Ismail; Unlu, Serap; Bayar, Mustafa K; Erhan, Omer L

    2013-08-01

    The purpose of our study was to determine the effects of anesthetic technique and ambient temperature on thermoregulation for patients undergoing lower extremity surgery. Our study included 90 male patients aged 18-60 years in American Society of Anesthesiologists Physical Status groups I or II who were scheduled for lower extremity surgery. Patients were randomly divided into three groups according to anesthetic technique: general anesthesia (GA), epidural anesthesia (EA), and femoral-sciatic block (FS). These groups were divided into subgroups according to room temperature: the temperature for group I was 20-22 °C and that for group II was 23-25 °C. Therefore, we labeled the groups as follows: GA I, GA II, EA I, EA II, FS I, and FS II. Probes for measuring tympanic membrane and peripheral temperature were placed in and on the patients, and mean skin temperature (MST) and mean body temperature (MBT) were assessed. Postoperative shivering scores were recorded. During anesthesia, tympanic temperature and MBT decreased whereas MST increased for all patients. There was no significant difference between tympanic temperatures in either the room temperature or anesthetic method groups. MST was lower in group GA I than in group GA II after 5, 10, 15, 20, 60 and 90 min whereas MBT was significantly lower at the basal level (p temperature affected thermoregulation in Group GA.

  11. Operation of SOI P-Channel Field Effect Transistors, CHT-PMOS30, under Extreme Temperatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patterson, Richard; Hammoud, Ahmad

    2009-01-01

    Electronic systems are required to operate under extreme temperatures in NASA planetary exploration and deep space missions. Electronics on-board spacecraft must also tolerate thermal cycling between extreme temperatures. Thermal management means are usually included in today s spacecraft systems to provide adequate temperature for proper operation of the electronics. These measures, which may include heating elements, heat pipes, radiators, etc., however add to the complexity in the design of the system, increases its cost and weight, and affects its performance and reliability. Electronic parts and circuits capable of withstanding and operating under extreme temperatures would reflect in improvement in system s efficiency, reducing cost, and improving overall reliability. Semiconductor chips based on silicon-on-insulator (SOI) technology are designed mainly for high temperature applications and find extensive use in terrestrial well-logging fields. Their inherent design offers advantages over silicon devices in terms of reduced leakage currents, less power consumption, faster switching speeds, and good radiation tolerance. Little is known, however, about their performance at cryogenic temperatures and under wide thermal swings. Experimental investigation on the operation of SOI, N-channel field effect transistors under wide temperature range was reported earlier [1]. This work examines the performance of P-channel devices of these SOI transistors. The electronic part investigated in this work comprised of a Cissoid s CHT-PMOS30, high temperature P-channel MOSFET (metal-oxide semiconductor field-effect transistor) device [2]. This high voltage, medium-power transistor is designed for geothermal well logging applications, aerospace and avionics, and automotive industry, and is specified for operation in the temperature range of -55 C to +225 C. Table I shows some specifications of this transistor [2]. The CHT-PMOS30 device was characterized at various temperatures

  12. Impacts of temperature extremes on cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in the Czech Republic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davídkovová, H.; Kyselý, J.; Plavcová, E.; Urban, A.; Kriz, B.; Kyncl, J.

    2012-04-01

    Elevated mortality associated with high ambient temperatures in summer represents one of the main impacts of weather extremes on human society. Increases in cardiovascular mortality during heat waves have been reported in many European countries; much less is known about which particular cardiovascular disorders are most affected during heat waves, and whether similar patterns are found for morbidity (hospital admissions). Relatively less understood is also cold-related mortality and morbidity in winter, when the relationships between weather and human health are more complex, less direct, and confounded by other factors such as epidemics of influenza/acute respiratory infections. The present study analyses relationships between temperature extremes and cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. We make use of the datasets on hospital admissions and daily mortality in the population of the Czech Republic (about 10.3 million) over 1994-2009. The data have been standardized to remove the effects of the long-term trend and the seasonal and weekly cycles. Periods when the morbidity/mortality data were affected by epidemics of influenza and other acute respiratory infections have been removed from the analysis. We use analogous definitions for hot and cold spells based on quantiles of daily average temperature anomalies, which allows for a comparison of the findings for summer hot spells and winter cold spells. The main aims of the study are (i) to identify deviations of mortality and morbidity from the baseline associated with hot and cold spells, (ii) to compare the hot- and cold-spell effects for individual cardiovascular diseases (e.g. ischaemic heart disease I20-I25, cerebrovascular disease I60-I69, hypertension I10, aterosclerosis I70) and to identify those diagnoses that are most closely linked to temperature extremes, (iii) to identify population groups most vulnerable to temperature extremes, and (iv) to compare the links to temperature extremes for morbidity and

  13. Reply to Stone Et Al.: Human-Made Role in Local Temperature Extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko; Ruedy, Reto A.

    2013-01-01

    Stone et al. find that their analysis is unable to show a causal relation of local temperature anomalies, such as in Texas in 2011, with global warming. It was because of limitations in such local analyses that we reframed the problem in our report, separating the task of attribution of the causes of global warming from the task of quantifying changes in the likelihood of extreme local temperature anomalies.

  14. Analysis model for forecasting extreme temperature using refined rank set pair

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qiao Ling-Xia

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available In order to improve the precision of forecasting extreme temperature time series, a refined rank set pair analysis model with a refined rank transformation function is proposed to improve precision of its prediction. The measured values of the annual highest temperature of two China’s cities, Taiyuan and Shijiazhuang, in July are taken to examine the performance of a refined rank set pair model.

  15. Extreme summer temperatures in Iberia: health impacts and associated synoptic conditions

    OpenAIRE

    Garcia-Herrera , R.; Diaz , J.; Trigo , R. M.; Hernández , E.

    2005-01-01

    This paper examines the effect of extreme summer temperatures on daily mortality in two large cities of Iberia: Lisbon (Portugal) and Madrid (Spain). Daily mortality and meteorological variables are analysed using the same methodology based on Box-Jenkins models. Results reveal that in both cases there is a triggering effect on mortality when maximum daily temperature exceeds a given threshold (34°C in Lisbon and 36°C in Madrid). The impact of most intense heat events is very ...

  16. Maybe Next Month? Temperature Shocks, Climate Change, and Dynamic Adjustments in Birth Rates

    OpenAIRE

    Barreca, Alan I.; Deschenes, Olivier; Guldi, Melanie

    2015-01-01

    Dynamic adjustments could be a useful strategy for mitigating the costs of acute environmental shocks when timing is not a strictly binding constraint. To investigate whether such adjustments could apply to fertility, we estimate the effects of temperature shocks on birth rates in the United States between 1931 and 2010. Our innovative approach allows for presumably random variation in the distribution of daily temperatures to affect birth rates up to 24 months into the future. We find that a...

  17. Probing the local, electronic and magnetic structure of matter under extreme conditions of temperature and pressure

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Torchio, R.; Boccato, S.; Cerantola, V.

    2016-01-01

    In this paper we present recent achievements in the field of investigation of the local, electronic and magnetic structure of the matter under extreme conditions of pressure and temperature. These results were obtained thanks to the coupling of a compact laser heating system to the energy-dispersive...

  18. Understanding of extreme temperature events by environmental health stakeholders in South Africa

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    John, J

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of the work is to understand the potential need and use of extreme temperature forecasting products in the environmental health sector in South Africa by using an online questionnaire. Seven of 19 respondents currently receive hot...

  19. Effects of elevated mean and extremely high temperatures on the physio-ecological characteristics of geographically distinctive populations of Cunninghamia lanceolata

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Ting; Jia, Xiaorong; Liao, Huixuan; Peng, Shijia; Peng, Shaolin

    2016-12-01

    Conventional models for predicting species distribution under global warming scenarios often treat one species as a homogeneous whole. In the present study, we selected Cunninghamia lanceolata (C. lanceolata), a widely distributed species in China, to investigate the physio-ecological responses of five populations under different temperature regimes. The results demonstrate that increased mean temperatures induce increased growth performance among northern populations, which exhibited the greatest germination capacity and largest increase in the overlap between the growth curve and the monthly average temperature. However,tolerance of the southern population to extremely high temperatures was stronger than among the population from the northern region,shown by the best growth and the most stable photosynthetic system of the southern population under extremely high temperature. This result indicates that the growth advantage among northern populations due to increased mean temperatures may be weakened by lower tolerance to extremely high temperatures. This finding is antithetical to the predicted results. The theoretical coupling model constructed here illustrates that the difference in growth between populations at high and low latitudes and altitudes under global warming will decrease because of the frequent occurrence of extremely high temperatures.

  20. Have human activities changed the frequencies of absolute extreme temperatures in eastern China?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jun; Tett, Simon F. B.; Yan, Zhongwei; Feng, Jinming

    2018-01-01

    Extreme temperatures affect populous regions, like eastern China, causing substantial socio-economic losses. It is beneficial to explore whether the frequencies of absolute or threshold-based extreme temperatures have been changed by human activities, such as anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs). In this study, we compared observed and multi-model-simulated changes in the frequencies of summer days, tropical nights, icy days and frosty nights in eastern China for the years 1960-2012 by using an optimal fingerprinting method. The observed long-term trends in the regional mean frequencies of these four indices were +2.36, +1.62, -0.94, -3.02 days decade-1. The models performed better in simulating the observed frequency change in daytime extreme temperatures than nighttime ones. Anthropogenic influences are detectable in the observed frequency changes of these four temperature extreme indices. The influence of natural forcings could not be detected robustly in any indices. Further analysis found that the effects of GHGs changed the frequencies of summer days (tropical nights, icy days, frosty nights) by +3.48 ± 1.45 (+2.99 ± 1.35, -2.52 ± 1.28, -4.11 ± 1.48) days decade-1. Other anthropogenic forcing agents (dominated by anthropogenic aerosols) offset the GHG effect and changed the frequencies of these four indices by -1.53 ± 0.78, -1.49 ± 0.94, +1.84 ± 1.07, +1.45 ± 1.26 days decade-1, respectively. Little influence of natural forcings was found in the observed frequency changes of these four temperature extreme indices.

  1. Skin temperature in the extremities of healthy and neurologically impaired children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Svedberg, Lena E; Stener-Victorin, Elisabet; Nordahl, Gunnar; Lundeberg, Thomas

    2005-01-01

    Little emphasis has been accorded to peripheral skin temperature impairments in children with neurological disorders but attention has been paid to the significance of cold extremities (autonomic failure) for well-being and quality of life in adults stroke patients. Therefore, it seems important to investigate skin temperature in children with neurological disorder, especially when their communication is impaired. In the present study, we wanted to objectively verify any skin temperature differences between pre-school children with and without neurological disorders and also ascertain if any correlation existed between skin temperature and physical activity. Skin temperatures in 25 healthy children and 15 children with cerebral or spinal cord damages were assessed using infrared radiation. The temperatures were recorded on the palm and the dorsal surface of the hands and on the sole and dorsal surface of the feet three times at 15-minute intervals over 30min. A significant lower mean skin temperature in all measurement points was seen in non-walking children with cerebral damages compared to healthy controls. Also, the mean skin temperature was significantly lower in all foot measuring points in the children with cerebral damages that were unable to walk compared to those walking. In conclusion, as cold extremities may result in impaired well-being and hypothetically may be associated with other symptoms born by the child, further investigations of thermal dysfunction and autonomic function are of importance and treatment may be warranted.

  2. Extreme temperature robust optical sensor designs and fault-tolerant signal processing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riza, Nabeel Agha [Oviedo, FL; Perez, Frank [Tujunga, CA

    2012-01-17

    Silicon Carbide (SiC) probe designs for extreme temperature and pressure sensing uses a single crystal SiC optical chip encased in a sintered SiC material probe. The SiC chip may be protected for high temperature only use or exposed for both temperature and pressure sensing. Hybrid signal processing techniques allow fault-tolerant extreme temperature sensing. Wavelength peak-to-peak (or null-to-null) collective spectrum spread measurement to detect wavelength peak/null shift measurement forms a coarse-fine temperature measurement using broadband spectrum monitoring. The SiC probe frontend acts as a stable emissivity Black-body radiator and monitoring the shift in radiation spectrum enables a pyrometer. This application combines all-SiC pyrometry with thick SiC etalon laser interferometry within a free-spectral range to form a coarse-fine temperature measurement sensor. RF notch filtering techniques improve the sensitivity of the temperature measurement where fine spectral shift or spectrum measurements are needed to deduce temperature.

  3. Statistical assessment of changes in extreme maximum temperatures over Saudi Arabia, 1985-2014

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raggad, Bechir

    2018-05-01

    In this study, two statistical approaches were adopted in the analysis of observed maximum temperature data collected from fifteen stations over Saudi Arabia during the period 1985-2014. In the first step, the behavior of extreme temperatures was analyzed and their changes were quantified with respect to the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection Monitoring indices. The results showed a general warming trend over most stations, in maximum temperature-related indices, during the period of analysis. In the second step, stationary and non-stationary extreme-value analyses were conducted for the temperature data. The results revealed that the non-stationary model with increasing linear trend in its location parameter outperforms the other models for two-thirds of the stations. Additionally, the 10-, 50-, and 100-year return levels were found to change with time considerably and that the maximum temperature could start to reappear in the different T-year return period for most stations. This analysis shows the importance of taking account the change over time in the estimation of return levels and therefore justifies the use of the non-stationary generalized extreme value distribution model to describe most of the data. Furthermore, these last findings are in line with the result of significant warming trends found in climate indices analyses.

  4. Extremely Durable, Flexible Supercapacitors with Greatly Improved Performance at High Temperatures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Sung-Kon; Kim, Hae Jin; Lee, Jong-Chan; Braun, Paul V; Park, Ho Seok

    2015-08-25

    The reliability and durability of energy storage devices are as important as their essential characteristics (e.g., energy and power density) for stable power output and long lifespan and thus much more crucial under harsh conditions. However, energy storage under extreme conditions is still a big challenge because of unavoidable performance decays and the inevitable damage of components. Here, we report high-temperature operating, flexible supercapacitors (f-SCs) that can provide reliable power output and extreme durability under severe electrochemical, mechanical, and thermal conditions. The outstanding capacitive features (e.g., ∼40% enhancement of the rate capability and a maximum capacitances of 170 F g(-1) and 18.7 mF cm(-2) at 160 °C) are attributed to facilitated ion transport at elevated temperatures. Under high-temperature operation and/or a flexibility test in both static and dynamic modes at elevated temperatures >100 °C, the f-SCs showed extreme long-term stability of 100000 cycles (>93% of initial capacitance value) and mechanical durability after hundreds of bending cycles (at bend angles of 60-180°). Even at 120 °C, the versatile design of tandem serial and parallel f-SCs was demonstrated to provide both desirable energy and power requirements at high temperatures.

  5. Expected changes in future temperature extremes and their elevation dependency over the Yellow River source region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Hu

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Using the Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM and the outputs from two global climate models, we investigate possible changes in mean and extreme temperature indices and their elevation dependency over the Yellow River source region for the two future periods 2046–2065 and 2081–2100 under the IPCC SRES A2, A1B and B1 emission scenarios. Changes in interannual variability of mean and extreme temperature indices are also analyzed. The validation results show that SDSM performs better in reproducing the maximum temperature-related indices than the minimum temperature-related indices. The projections show that by the middle and end of the 21st century all parts of the study region may experience increases in both mean and extreme temperature in all seasons, along with an increase in the frequency of hot days and warm nights and with a decrease in frost days. By the end of the 21st century, interannual variability increases in all seasons for the frequency of hot days and warm nights and in spring for frost days while it decreases for frost days in summer. Autumn demonstrates pronounced elevation-dependent changes in which around six out of eight indices show significant increasing changes with elevation.

  6. Using Upper Extremity Skin Temperatures to Assess Thermal Comfort in Office Buildings in Changsha, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhibin Wu

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Existing thermal comfort field studies are mainly focused on the relationship between the indoor physical environment and the thermal comfort. In numerous chamber experiments, physiological parameters were adopted to assess thermal comfort, but the experiments’ conclusions may not represent a realistic thermal environment due to the highly controlled thermal environment and few occupants. This paper focuses on determining the relationships between upper extremity skin temperatures (i.e., finger, wrist, hand and forearm and the indoor thermal comfort. Also, the applicability of predicting thermal comfort by using upper extremity skin temperatures was explored. Field studies were performed in office buildings equipped with split air-conditioning (SAC located in the hot summer and cold winter (HSCW climate zone of China during the summer of 2016. Psychological responses of occupants were recorded and physical and physiological factors were measured simultaneously. Standard effective temperature (SET* was used to incorporate the effect of humidity and air velocity on thermal comfort. The results indicate that upper extremity skin temperatures are good indicators for predicting thermal sensation, and could be used to assess the thermal comfort in terms of physiological mechanism. In addition, the neutral temperature was 24.7 °C and the upper limit for 80% acceptability was 28.2 °C in SET*.

  7. Using Upper Extremity Skin Temperatures to Assess Thermal Comfort in Office Buildings in Changsha, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Zhibin; Li, Nianping; Cui, Haijiao; Peng, Jinqing; Chen, Haowen; Liu, Penglong

    2017-09-21

    Existing thermal comfort field studies are mainly focused on the relationship between the indoor physical environment and the thermal comfort. In numerous chamber experiments, physiological parameters were adopted to assess thermal comfort, but the experiments' conclusions may not represent a realistic thermal environment due to the highly controlled thermal environment and few occupants. This paper focuses on determining the relationships between upper extremity skin temperatures (i.e., finger, wrist, hand and forearm) and the indoor thermal comfort. Also, the applicability of predicting thermal comfort by using upper extremity skin temperatures was explored. Field studies were performed in office buildings equipped with split air-conditioning (SAC) located in the hot summer and cold winter (HSCW) climate zone of China during the summer of 2016. Psychological responses of occupants were recorded and physical and physiological factors were measured simultaneously. Standard effective temperature (SET*) was used to incorporate the effect of humidity and air velocity on thermal comfort. The results indicate that upper extremity skin temperatures are good indicators for predicting thermal sensation, and could be used to assess the thermal comfort in terms of physiological mechanism. In addition, the neutral temperature was 24.7 °C and the upper limit for 80% acceptability was 28.2 °C in SET*.

  8. Climate Change and Fetal Health: The Impacts of Exposure to Extreme Temperatures in New York City

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ngo, Nicole S.; Horton, Radley M.

    2015-01-01

    Background: Climate change is projected to increase the frequency, intensity, and duration of heat waves while reducing cold extremes, yet few studies have examined the relationship between temperature and fetal health. Objectives: We estimate the impacts of extreme temperatures on birth weight and gestational age in Manhattan, a borough in New York City, and explore differences by socioeconomic status (SES). Methods: We combine average daily temperature from 1985 to 2010 with birth certificate data in Manhattan for the same time period. We then generate 33 downscaled climate model time series to project impacts on fetal health. Results: We find exposure to an extra day where average temperature 25 F and 85 F during pregnancy is associated with a 1.8 and 1.7 g (respectively) reduction in birth weight, but the impact varies by SES, particularly for extreme heat, where teen mothers seem most vulnerable. We find no meaningful, significant effect on gestational age. Using projections of temperature from these climate models, we project average net reductions in birth weight in the 2070- 2099 period of 4.6 g in the business-as-usual scenario. Conclusions: Results suggest that increasing heat events from climate change could adversely impact birth weight and vary by SES.

  9. Inelastic X-ray scattering experiments at extreme conditions: high temperatures and high pressures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S.Hosokawa

    2008-03-01

    Full Text Available In this article, we review the present status of experimental techniques under extreme conditions of high temperature and high pressure used for inelastic X-ray scattering (IXS experiments of liquid metals, semiconductors, molten salts, molecular liquids, and supercritical water and methanol. For high temperature experiments, some types of single-crystal sapphire cells were designed depending on the temperature of interest and the sample thickness for the X-ray transmission. Single-crystal diamond X-ray windows attached to the externally heated high-pressure vessel were used for the IXS experiment of supercritical water and methanol. Some typical experimental results are also given, and the perspective of IXS technique under extreme conditions is discussed.

  10. EXTREME MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM AIR TEMPERATURE IN MEDİTERRANEAN COASTS IN TURKEY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Barbaros Gönençgil

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In this study, we determined extreme maximum and minimum temperatures in both summer and winter seasons at the stations in the Mediterranean coastal areas of Turkey.In the study, the data of 24 meteorological stations for the daily maximum and minimumtemperatures of the period from 1970–2010 were used. From this database, a set of four extreme temperature indices applied warm (TX90 and cold (TN10 days and warm spells (WSDI and cold spell duration (CSDI. The threshold values were calculated for each station to determine the temperatures that were above and below the seasonal norms in winter and summer. The TX90 index displays a positive statistically significant trend, while TN10 display negative nonsignificant trend. The occurrence of warm spells shows statistically significant increasing trend while the cold spells shows significantly decreasing trend over the Mediterranean coastline in Turkey.

  11. Rising Mediterranean Sea Surface Temperatures Amplify Extreme Summer Precipitation in Central Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Volosciuk, Claudia; Maraun, Douglas; Semenov, Vladimir A.; Tilinina, Natalia; Gulev, Sergey K.; Latif, Mojib

    2016-08-01

    The beginning of the 21st century was marked by a number of severe summer floods in Central Europe associated with extreme precipitation (e.g., Elbe 2002, Oder 2010 and Danube 2013). Extratropical storms, known as Vb-cyclones, cause summer extreme precipitation events over Central Europe and can thus lead to such floodings. Vb-cyclones develop over the Mediterranean Sea, which itself strongly warmed during recent decades. Here we investigate the influence of increased Mediterranean Sea surface temperature (SST) on extreme precipitation events in Central Europe. To this end, we carry out atmosphere model simulations forced by average Mediterranean SSTs during 1970-1999 and 2000-2012. Extreme precipitation events occurring on average every 20 summers in the warmer-SST-simulation (2000-2012) amplify along the Vb-cyclone track compared to those in the colder-SST-simulation (1970-1999), on average by 17% in Central Europe. The largest increase is located southeast of maximum precipitation for both simulated heavy events and historical Vb-events. The responsible physical mechanism is increased evaporation from and enhanced atmospheric moisture content over the Mediterranean Sea. The excess in precipitable water is transported from the Mediterranean Sea to Central Europe causing stronger precipitation extremes over that region. Our findings suggest that Mediterranean Sea surface warming amplifies Central European precipitation extremes.

  12. Significant influences of global mean temperature and ENSO on extreme rainfall over Southeast Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villafuerte, Marcelino, II; Matsumoto, Jun

    2014-05-01

    Along with the increasing concerns on the consequences of global warming, and the accumulating records of disaster related to heavy rainfall events in Southeast Asia, this study investigates whether a direct link can be detected between the rising global mean temperature, as well as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and extreme rainfall over the region. The maximum likelihood modeling that allows incorporating covariates on the location parameter of the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution is employed. The GEV model is fitted to annual and seasonal rainfall extremes, which were taken from a high-resolution gauge-based gridded daily precipitation data covering a span of 57 years (1951-2007). Nonstationarities in extreme rainfall are detected over the central parts of Indochina Peninsula, eastern coasts of central Vietnam, northwest of the Sumatra Island, inland portions of Borneo Island, and on the northeastern and southwestern coasts of the Philippines. These nonstationarities in extreme rainfall are directly linked to near-surface global mean temperature and ENSO. In particular, the study reveals that a kelvin increase in global mean temperature anomaly can lead to an increase of 30% to even greater than 45% in annual maximum 1-day rainfall, which were observed pronouncedly over central Vietnam, southern coast of Myanmar, northwestern sections of Thailand, northwestern tip of Sumatra, central portions of Malaysia, and the Visayas island in central Philippines. Furthermore, a pronounced ENSO influence manifested on the seasonal maximum 1-day rainfall; a northward progression of 10%-15% drier condition over Southeast Asia as the El Niño develops from summer to winter is revealed. It is important therefore, to consider the results obtained here for water resources management as well as for adaptation planning to minimize the potential adverse impact of global warming, particularly on extreme rainfall and its associated flood risk over the region

  13. Characterization of Future Caribbean Rainfall and Temperature Extremes across Rainfall Zones

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natalie Melissa McLean

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available End-of-century changes in Caribbean climate extremes are derived from the Providing Regional Climate for Impact Studies (PRECIS regional climate model (RCM under the A2 and B2 emission scenarios across five rainfall zones. Trends in rainfall, maximum temperature, and minimum temperature extremes from the RCM are validated against meteorological stations over 1979–1989. The model displays greater skill at representing trends in consecutive wet days (CWD and extreme rainfall (R95P than consecutive dry days (CDD, wet days (R10, and maximum 5-day precipitation (RX5. Trends in warm nights, cool days, and warm days were generally well reproduced. Projections for 2071–2099 relative to 1961–1989 are obtained from the ECHAM5 driven RCM. Northern and eastern zones are projected to experience more intense rainfall under A2 and B2. There is less consensus across scenarios with respect to changes in the dry and wet spell lengths. However, there is indication that a drying trend may be manifest over zone 5 (Trinidad and northern Guyana. Changes in the extreme temperature indices generally suggest a warmer Caribbean towards the end of century across both scenarios with the strongest changes over zone 4 (eastern Caribbean.

  14. Mechanical characterization of alloys in extreme conditions of high strain rates and high temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cadoni, Ezio

    2018-03-01

    The aim of this paper is the description of the mechanical characterization of alloys under extreme conditions of temperature and loading. In fact, in the frame of the Cost Action CA15102 “Solutions for Critical Raw Materials Under Extreme Conditions (CRM-EXTREME)” this aspect is crucial and many industrial applications have to consider the dynamic response of materials. Indeed, for a reduction and substitution of CRMs in alloys is necessary to design the materials and understand if the new materials behave better or if the substitution or reduction badly affect their performance. For this reason, a deep knowledge of the mechanical behaviour at high strain-rates of considered materials is required. In general, machinery manufacturing industry or transport industry as well as energy industry have important dynamic phenomena that are simultaneously affected by extended strain, high strain-rate, damage and pressure, as well as conspicuous temperature gradients. The experimental results in extreme conditions of high strain rate and high temperature of an austenitic stainless steel as well as a high-chromium tempered martensitic reduced activation steel Eurofer97 are presented.

  15. Telemetry pill versus rectal and esophageal temperature during extreme rates of exercise-induced core temperature change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Teunissen, L P J; Daanen, H A M; De Haan, A; De Koning, J J

    2012-01-01

    Core temperature measurement with an ingestible telemetry pill has been scarcely investigated during extreme rates of temperature change, induced by short high-intensity exercise in the heat. Therefore, nine participants performed a protocol of rest, (sub)maximal cycling and recovery at 30 °C. The pill temperature (T pill ) was compared with the rectal temperature (T re ) and esophageal temperature (T es ). T pill corresponded well to T re during the entire trial, but deviated considerably from T es during the exercise and recovery periods. During maximal exercise, the average ΔT pill −T re and ΔT pill −T es were 0.13 ± 0.26 and −0.57 ± 0.53 °C, respectively. The response time from the start of exercise, the rate of change during exercise and the peak temperature were similar for T pill and T re. T es responded 5 min earlier, increased more than twice as fast and its peak value was 0.42 ± 0.46 °C higher than T pill . In conclusion, also during considerable temperature changes at a very high rate, T pill is still a representative of T re . The extent of the deviation in the pattern and peak values between T pill and T es (up to >1 °C) strengthens the assumption that T pill is unsuited to evaluate central blood temperature when body temperatures change rapidly. (paper)

  16. Lack of cool, not warm, extremes distinguishes late 20th Century climate in 979-year Tasmanian summer temperature reconstruction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, K. J.; Cook, E. R.; Evans, R.; Francey, R.; Buckley, B. M.; Palmer, J. G.; Peterson, M. J.; Baker, P. J.

    2018-03-01

    Very few annually resolved millennial-length temperature reconstructions exist for the Southern Hemisphere. Here we present four 979-year reconstructions for southeastern Australia for the austral summer months of December-February. Two of the reconstructions are based on the Australian Water Availability Project dataset and two on the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature dataset. For each climate data set, one reconstruction is based solely on Lagarostrobos franklinii (restricted reconstructions) while the other is based on multiple Tasmanian conifer species (unrestricted reconstructions). Each reconstruction calibrates ~50-60% of the variance in the temperature datasets depending on the number of tree-ring records available for the reconstruction. We found little difference in the temporal variability of the reconstructions, although extremes are amplified in the restricted reconstructions relative to the unrestricted reconstructions. The reconstructions highlight the occurrence of numerous individual years, especially in the 15th-17th Centuries, for which temperatures were comparable with those of the late 20th Century. The 1950-1999 period, however, stands out as the warmest 50-year period on average for the past 979 years, with a sustained shift away from relatively low mean temperatures, the length of which is unique in the 979-year record. The reconstructions are strongly and positively related to temperatures across the southeast of the Australian continent, negatively related to temperatures in the north and northeast of the continent, and uncorrelated with temperatures in the west. The lack of a strong relationship with temperatures across the continent highlights the necessity of a sub-regional focus for Australasian temperature reconstructions.

  17. Dynamically-downscaled projections of changes in temperature extremes over China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Junhong; Huang, Guohe; Wang, Xiuquan; Li, Yongping; Lin, Qianguo

    2018-02-01

    In this study, likely changes in extreme temperatures (including 16 indices) over China in response to global warming throughout the twenty-first century are investigated through the PRECIS regional climate modeling system. The PRECIS experiment is conducted at a spatial resolution of 25 km and is driven by a perturbed-physics ensemble to reflect spatial variations and model uncertainties. Simulations of present climate (1961-1990) are compared with observations to validate the model performance in reproducing historical climate over China. Results indicate that the PRECIS demonstrates reasonable skills in reproducing the spatial patterns of observed extreme temperatures over the most regions of China, especially in the east. Nevertheless, the PRECIS shows a relatively poor performance in simulating the spatial patterns of extreme temperatures in the western mountainous regions, where its driving GCM exhibits more uncertainties due to lack of insufficient observations and results in more errors in climate downscaling. Future spatio-temporal changes of extreme temperature indices are then analyzed for three successive periods (i.e., 2020s, 2050s and 2080s). The projected changes in extreme temperatures by PRECIS are well consistent with the results of the major global climate models in both spatial and temporal patterns. Furthermore, the PRECIS demonstrates a distinct superiority in providing more detailed spatial information of extreme indices. In general, all extreme indices show similar changes in spatial pattern: large changes are projected in the north while small changes are projected in the south. In contrast, the temporal patterns for all indices vary differently over future periods: the warm indices, such as SU, TR, WSDI, TX90p, TN90p and GSL are likely to increase, while the cold indices, such as ID, FD, CSDI, TX10p and TN10p, are likely to decrease with time in response to global warming. Nevertheless, the magnitudes of changes in all indices tend to

  18. Plasmonic nanocomposite thin film enabled fiber optic sensors for simultaneous gas and temperature sensing at extreme temperatures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ohodnicki, Paul R; Buric, Michael P; Brown, Thomas D; Matranga, Christopher; Wang, Congjun; Baltrus, John; Andio, Mark

    2013-10-07

    Embedded sensors capable of operation in extreme environments including high temperatures, high pressures, and highly reducing, oxidizing and/or corrosive environments can make a significant impact on enhanced efficiencies and reduced greenhouse gas emissions of current and future fossil-based power generation systems. Relevant technologies can also be leveraged in a wide range of other applications with similar needs including nuclear power generation, industrial process monitoring and control, and aviation/aerospace. Here we describe a novel approach to embedded sensing under extreme temperature conditions by integration of Au-nanoparticle based plasmonic nanocomposite thin films with optical fibers in an evanescent wave absorption spectroscopy configuration. Such sensors can potentially enable simultaneous temperature and gas sensing at temperatures approaching 900-1000 °C in a manner compatible with embedded and distributed sensing approaches. The approach is demonstrated using the Au/SiO2 system deposited on silica-based optical fibers. Stability of optical fibers under relevant high temperature conditions and interactions with changing ambient gas atmospheres is an area requiring additional investigation and development but the simplicity of the sensor design makes it potentially cost-effective and may offer a potential for widespread deployment.

  19. Novel Zero-Heat-Flux Deep Body Temperature Measurement in Lower Extremity Vascular and Cardiac Surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mäkinen, Marja-Tellervo; Pesonen, Anne; Jousela, Irma; Päivärinta, Janne; Poikajärvi, Satu; Albäck, Anders; Salminen, Ulla-Stina; Pesonen, Eero

    2016-08-01

    The aim of this study was to compare deep body temperature obtained using a novel noninvasive continuous zero-heat-flux temperature measurement system with core temperatures obtained using conventional methods. A prospective, observational study. Operating room of a university hospital. The study comprised 15 patients undergoing vascular surgery of the lower extremities and 15 patients undergoing cardiac surgery with cardiopulmonary bypass. Zero-heat-flux thermometry on the forehead and standard core temperature measurements. Body temperature was measured using a new thermometry system (SpotOn; 3M, St. Paul, MN) on the forehead and with conventional methods in the esophagus during vascular surgery (n = 15), and in the nasopharynx and pulmonary artery during cardiac surgery (n = 15). The agreement between SpotOn and the conventional methods was assessed using the Bland-Altman random-effects approach for repeated measures. The mean difference between SpotOn and the esophageal temperature during vascular surgery was+0.08°C (95% limit of agreement -0.25 to+0.40°C). During cardiac surgery, during off CPB, the mean difference between SpotOn and the pulmonary arterial temperature was -0.05°C (95% limits of agreement -0.56 to+0.47°C). Throughout cardiac surgery (on and off CPB), the mean difference between SpotOn and the nasopharyngeal temperature was -0.12°C (95% limits of agreement -0.94 to+0.71°C). Poor agreement between the SpotOn and nasopharyngeal temperatures was detected in hypothermia below approximately 32°C. According to this preliminary study, the deep body temperature measured using the zero-heat-flux system was in good agreement with standard core temperatures during lower extremity vascular and cardiac surgery. However, agreement was questionable during hypothermia below 32°C. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Assessment of extreme value distributions for maximum temperature in the Mediterranean area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beck, Alexander; Hertig, Elke; Jacobeit, Jucundus

    2015-04-01

    Extreme maximum temperatures highly affect the natural as well as the societal environment Heat stress has great effects on flora, fauna and humans and culminates in heat related morbidity and mortality. Agriculture and different industries are severely affected by extreme air temperatures. Even more under climate change conditions, it is necessary to detect potential hazards which arise from changes in the distributional parameters of extreme values, and this is especially relevant for the Mediterranean region which is characterized as a climate change hot spot. Therefore statistical approaches are developed to estimate these parameters with a focus on non-stationarities emerging in the relationship between regional climate variables and their large-scale predictors like sea level pressure, geopotential heights, atmospheric temperatures and relative humidity. Gridded maximum temperature data from the daily E-OBS dataset (Haylock et al., 2008) with a spatial resolution of 0.25° x 0.25° from January 1950 until December 2012 are the predictands for the present analyses. A s-mode principal component analysis (PCA) has been performed in order to reduce data dimension and to retain different regions of similar maximum temperature variability. The grid box with the highest PC-loading represents the corresponding principal component. A central part of the analyses is the model development for temperature extremes under the use of extreme value statistics. A combined model is derived consisting of a Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) model and a quantile regression (QR) model which determines the GPD location parameters. The QR model as well as the scale parameters of the GPD model are conditioned by various large-scale predictor variables. In order to account for potential non-stationarities in the predictors-temperature relationships, a special calibration and validation scheme is applied, respectively. Haylock, M. R., N. Hofstra, A. M. G. Klein Tank, E. J. Klok, P

  1. Predictability of monthly temperature and precipitation using automatic time series forecasting methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papacharalampous, Georgia; Tyralis, Hristos; Koutsoyiannis, Demetris

    2018-02-01

    We investigate the predictability of monthly temperature and precipitation by applying automatic univariate time series forecasting methods to a sample of 985 40-year-long monthly temperature and 1552 40-year-long monthly precipitation time series. The methods include a naïve one based on the monthly values of the last year, as well as the random walk (with drift), AutoRegressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average (ARFIMA), exponential smoothing state-space model with Box-Cox transformation, ARMA errors, Trend and Seasonal components (BATS), simple exponential smoothing, Theta and Prophet methods. Prophet is a recently introduced model inspired by the nature of time series forecasted at Facebook and has not been applied to hydrometeorological time series before, while the use of random walk, BATS, simple exponential smoothing and Theta is rare in hydrology. The methods are tested in performing multi-step ahead forecasts for the last 48 months of the data. We further investigate how different choices of handling the seasonality and non-normality affect the performance of the models. The results indicate that: (a) all the examined methods apart from the naïve and random walk ones are accurate enough to be used in long-term applications; (b) monthly temperature and precipitation can be forecasted to a level of accuracy which can barely be improved using other methods; (c) the externally applied classical seasonal decomposition results mostly in better forecasts compared to the automatic seasonal decomposition used by the BATS and Prophet methods; and (d) Prophet is competitive, especially when it is combined with externally applied classical seasonal decomposition.

  2. Influence of extreme low temperature conditions on the dynamic mechanical properties of carbon fiber reinforced polymers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaoutsos, S. P.; Zilidou, M. C.

    2017-12-01

    In the current study dynamic mechanical analysis (DMA) is performed in CFRPs that have been exposed for certain periods of time to extreme low temperatures. Through experimental data arising from respective DMA tests the influence of low temperature exposure (-40 °C) on the dynamic mechanical properties is studied. DMA tests were conducted in CFRP specimens in three point bending mode at both frequency and thermal scans in order to determine the viscoelastic response of the material in low temperatures. All experimental tests were run both for aged and pristine materials for comparison purposes. The results occurred reveal that there is deterioration both on transition temperature (Tg) and storage modulus values while there is also a moderate increase in the damping ability of the tested material as expressed by the factor tanδ as the period of exposure to low temperature increases.

  3. Extreme temperature events on Greenland in observations and the MAR regional climate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leeson, Amber A.; Eastoe, Emma; Fettweis, Xavier

    2018-03-01

    Meltwater from the Greenland Ice Sheet contributed 1.7-6.12 mm to global sea level between 1993 and 2010 and is expected to contribute 20-110 mm to future sea level rise by 2100. These estimates were produced by regional climate models (RCMs) which are known to be robust at the ice sheet scale but occasionally miss regional- and local-scale climate variability (e.g. Leeson et al., 2017; Medley et al., 2013). To date, the fidelity of these models in the context of short-period variability in time (i.e. intra-seasonal) has not been fully assessed, for example their ability to simulate extreme temperature events. We use an event identification algorithm commonly used in extreme value analysis, together with observations from the Greenland Climate Network (GC-Net), to assess the ability of the MAR (Modèle Atmosphérique Régional) RCM to reproduce observed extreme positive-temperature events at 14 sites around Greenland. We find that MAR is able to accurately simulate the frequency and duration of these events but underestimates their magnitude by more than half a degree Celsius/kelvin, although this bias is much smaller than that exhibited by coarse-scale Era-Interim reanalysis data. As a result, melt energy in MAR output is underestimated by between 16 and 41 % depending on global forcing applied. Further work is needed to precisely determine the drivers of extreme temperature events, and why the model underperforms in this area, but our findings suggest that biases are passed into MAR from boundary forcing data. This is important because these forcings are common between RCMs and their range of predictions of past and future ice sheet melting. We propose that examining extreme events should become a routine part of global and regional climate model evaluation and that addressing shortcomings in this area should be a priority for model development.

  4. Understanding the Impact of Extreme Temperature on Crop Production in Karnataka in India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahato, S.; Murari, K. K.; Jayaraman, T.

    2017-12-01

    The impact of extreme temperature on crop yield is seldom explored in work around climate change impact on agriculture. Further, these studies are restricted mainly to crops such as wheat and maize. Since different agro-climatic zones bear different crops and cropping patterns, it is important to explore the nature of the impact of changes in climate variables in agricultural systems under differential conditions. The study explores the effects of temperature rise on the major crops paddy, jowar, ragi and tur in the state of Karnataka of southern India. The choice of the unit of study to understand impact of climate variability on crop yields is largely restricted to availability of data for the unit. While, previous studies have dealt with this issue by replacing yield with NDVI at finer resolution, the use of an index in place of yield data has its limitations and may not reflect the true estimates. For this study, the unit considered is taluk, i.e. sub-district level. The crop yield for taluk is obtained between the year the 1995 to 2011 by aggregating point yield data from crop cutting experiments for each year across the taluks. The long term temperature data shows significantly increasing trend that ranges between 0.6 to 0.75 C across Karnataka. Further, the analysis suggests a warming trend in seasonal average temperature for Kharif and Rabi seasons across districts. The study also found that many districts exhibit the tendency of occurrence of extreme temperature days, which is of particular concern in terms of crop yield, since exposure of crops to extreme temperature has negative consequences for crop production and productivity. Using growing degree days GDD, extreme degree days EDD and total season rainfall as predictor variables, the fixed effect model shows that EDD is a more influential parameter as compared to GDD and rainfall. Also it has a statistically significant negative effect in most cases. Further, quantile regression was used to evaluate

  5. Daily temperature and precipitation extremes in the Baltic Sea region derived from the BaltAn65+ reanalysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toll, Velle; Post, Piia

    2018-04-01

    Daily 2-m temperature and precipitation extremes in the Baltic Sea region for the time period of 1965-2005 is studied based on data from the BaltAn65 + high resolution atmospheric reanalysis. Moreover, the ability of regional reanalysis to capture extremes is analysed by comparing the reanalysis data to gridded observations. The shortcomings in the simulation of the minimum temperatures over the northern part of the region and in the simulation of the extreme precipitation over the Scandinavian mountains in the BaltAn65+ reanalysis data are detected and analysed. Temporal trends in the temperature and precipitation extremes in the Baltic Sea region, with the largest increases in temperature and precipitation in winter, are detected based on both gridded observations and the BaltAn65+ reanalysis data. However, the reanalysis is not able to capture all of the regional trends in the extremes in the observations due to the shortcomings in the simulation of the extremes.

  6. An 8-month history of meningitis in an extremely low birth weight infant? - Long-lasting Infection with Ureaplasma parvum.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glaser, K; Wohlleben, M; Speer, C P

    2015-02-01

    Ureaplasma spp. have been implicated in the pathogenesis of both preterm labor and neonatal morbidity including pneumonia and sepsis and the development of chronic lung disease of prematurity. Data on Ureaplasma meningitis are limited and partly controversially discussed. We report the unique case of a 9-month-old infant with progressive internal hydrocephalus of unknown origin and developmental delay due to a history of>200 days of inflammation of the central nervous system. The female extremely low birth weight infant had been referred to our hospital for ventriculoperitoneal shunt implantation. She had been born at 26+3 weeks of gestation with a birth weight of 940 g. With the exception of a moderate respiratory distress syndrome, postnatal period had been reported uneventful. However, internal hydrocephalus had become manifest at 4 weeks of postnatal age. Intraventricular hemorrhage had not been documented by cranial ultrasound and magnetic resonance imaging. Cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) analysis had repetitively revealed pronounced inflammation reflected by pleocytosis (50-86 leukocytes/μL, 60% lymphocytes), CSF protein levels of 578-1,026 mg/dL and undetectable CSF glucose. Although suggesting bacterial meningitis, microbial diagnostics had not been indicative, and empirical antibiotics had not affected the CSF findings. On admission to our hospital, CSF analysis still documented significant inflammation (125 leukocytes/μL, CSF protein 565 mg/dL, CSF glucoseUreaplasma spp. and Mycoplasma hominis. U. parvum was detected in CSF by culture and PCR, no other pathogens were isolated. On intravenous treatment with chloramphenicol, CSF profile continuously normalized, and cultures and PCR became negative. Treatment was continued for 3 weeks, and the infant was discharged after uncomplicated ventriculoperitoneal shunt placement. During a 12-month observation period she has shown encouraging recovery. In preterm infants, in particular, internal hydrocephalus of

  7. The dichotomous response of flood and storm extremes to rising global temperatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharma, A.; Wasko, C.

    2017-12-01

    Rising temperature have resulted in increases in short-duration rainfall extremes across the world. Additionally it has been shown (doi:10.1038/ngeo2456) that storms will intensify, causing derived flood peaks to rise even more. This leads us to speculate that flood peaks will increase as a result, complying with the storyline presented in past IPCC reports. This talk, however, shows that changes in flood extremes are much more complex. Using global data on extreme flow events, the study conclusively shows that while the very extreme floods may be rising as a result of storm intensification, the more frequent flood events are decreasing in magnitude. The study argues that changes in the magnitude of floods are a function of changes in storm patterns and as well as pre-storm or antecedent conditions. It goes on to show that while changes in storms dominate for the most extreme events and over smaller, more urbanised catchments, changes in pre-storm conditions are the driving factor in modulating flood peaks in large rural catchments. The study concludes by providing recommendations on how future flood design should proceed, arguing that current practices (or using a design storm to estimate floods) are flawed and need changing.

  8. United States Temperature and Precipitation Extremes: Phenomenology, Large-Scale Organization, Physical Mechanisms and Model Representation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Black, R. X.

    2017-12-01

    We summarize results from a project focusing on regional temperature and precipitation extremes over the continental United States. Our project introduces a new framework for evaluating these extremes emphasizing their (a) large-scale organization, (b) underlying physical sources (including remote-excitation and scale-interaction) and (c) representation in climate models. Results to be reported include the synoptic-dynamic behavior, seasonality and secular variability of cold waves, dry spells and heavy rainfall events in the observational record. We also study how the characteristics of such extremes are systematically related to Northern Hemisphere planetary wave structures and thus planetary- and hemispheric-scale forcing (e.g., those associated with major El Nino events and Arctic sea ice change). The underlying physics of event onset are diagnostically quantified for different categories of events. Finally, the representation of these extremes in historical coupled climate model simulations is studied and the origins of model biases are traced using new metrics designed to assess the large-scale atmospheric forcing of local extremes.

  9. Range of monthly mean hourly land surface air temperature diurnal cycle over high northern latitudes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Aihui; Zeng, Xubin

    2014-05-01

    Daily maximum and minimum temperatures over global land are fundamental climate variables, and their difference represents the diurnal temperature range (DTR). While the differences between the monthly averaged DTR (MDTR) and the range of monthly averaged hourly temperature diurnal cycle (RMDT) are easy to understand qualitatively, their differences have not been quantified over global land areas. Based on our newly developed in situ data (Climatic Research Unit) reanalysis (Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications) merged hourly temperature data from 1979 to 2009, RMDT in January is found to be much smaller than that in July over high northern latitudes, as it is much more affected by the diurnal radiative forcing than by the horizontal advection of temperature. In contrast, MDTR in January is comparable to that in July over high northern latitudes, but it is much larger than January RMDT, as it primarily reflects the movement of lower frequency synoptic weather systems. The area-averaged RMDT trends north of 40°N are near zero in November, December, and January, while the trends of MDTR are negative. These results suggest the need to use both the traditional MDTR and RMDT suggested here in future observational and modeling studies. Furthermore, MDTR and its trend are more sensitive to the starting hour of a 24 h day used in the calculations than those for RMDT, and this factor also needs to be considered in model evaluations using observational data.

  10. Perception, Action, and Cognition of Football Referees in Extreme Temperatures: Impact on Decision Performance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nadia Gaoua

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Different professional domains require high levels of physical performance alongside fast and accurate decision-making. Construction workers, police officers, firefighters, elite sports men and women, the military and emergency medical professionals are often exposed to hostile environments with limited options for behavioral coping strategies. In this (mini review we use football refereeing as an example to discuss the combined effect of intense physical activity and extreme temperatures on decision-making and suggest an explicative model. In professional football competitions can be played in temperatures ranging from -5°C in Norway to 30°C in Spain for example. Despite these conditions, the referee’s responsibility is to consistently apply the laws fairly and uniformly, and to ensure the rules are followed without waning or adversely influencing the competitiveness of the play. However, strenuous exercise in extreme environments imposes increased physiological and psychological stress that can affect decision-making. Therefore, the physical exertion required to follow the game and the thermal strain from the extreme temperatures may hinder the ability of referees to make fast and accurate decisions. Here, we review literature on the physical and cognitive requirements of football refereeing and how extreme temperatures may affect referees’ decisions. Research suggests that both hot and cold environments have a negative impact on decision-making but data specific to decision-making is still lacking. A theoretical model of decision-making under the constraint of intense physical activity and thermal stress is suggested. Future naturalistic studies are needed to validate this model and provide clear recommendations for mitigating strategies.

  11. Perception, Action, and Cognition of Football Referees in Extreme Temperatures: Impact on Decision Performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaoua, Nadia; de Oliveira, Rita F; Hunter, Steve

    2017-01-01

    Different professional domains require high levels of physical performance alongside fast and accurate decision-making. Construction workers, police officers, firefighters, elite sports men and women, the military and emergency medical professionals are often exposed to hostile environments with limited options for behavioral coping strategies. In this (mini) review we use football refereeing as an example to discuss the combined effect of intense physical activity and extreme temperatures on decision-making and suggest an explicative model. In professional football competitions can be played in temperatures ranging from -5°C in Norway to 30°C in Spain for example. Despite these conditions, the referee's responsibility is to consistently apply the laws fairly and uniformly, and to ensure the rules are followed without waning or adversely influencing the competitiveness of the play. However, strenuous exercise in extreme environments imposes increased physiological and psychological stress that can affect decision-making. Therefore, the physical exertion required to follow the game and the thermal strain from the extreme temperatures may hinder the ability of referees to make fast and accurate decisions. Here, we review literature on the physical and cognitive requirements of football refereeing and how extreme temperatures may affect referees' decisions. Research suggests that both hot and cold environments have a negative impact on decision-making but data specific to decision-making is still lacking. A theoretical model of decision-making under the constraint of intense physical activity and thermal stress is suggested. Future naturalistic studies are needed to validate this model and provide clear recommendations for mitigating strategies.

  12. Perception, action and cognition of football referees in extreme temperatures: Impact on decision performance

    OpenAIRE

    Gaoua, N; de Oliveira, RF; Hunter, S

    2017-01-01

    Different professional domains require high levels of physical performance alongside fast and accurate decision-making. Construction workers, police officers, firefighters, elite sports men and women, the military and emergency medical professionals are often exposed to hostile environments with limited options for behavioral coping strategies. In this (mini) review we use football refereeing as an example to discuss the combined effect of intense physical activity and extreme temperatures on...

  13. Perception, Action, and Cognition of Football Referees in Extreme Temperatures: Impact on Decision Performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaoua, Nadia; de Oliveira, Rita F.; Hunter, Steve

    2017-01-01

    Different professional domains require high levels of physical performance alongside fast and accurate decision-making. Construction workers, police officers, firefighters, elite sports men and women, the military and emergency medical professionals are often exposed to hostile environments with limited options for behavioral coping strategies. In this (mini) review we use football refereeing as an example to discuss the combined effect of intense physical activity and extreme temperatures on decision-making and suggest an explicative model. In professional football competitions can be played in temperatures ranging from -5°C in Norway to 30°C in Spain for example. Despite these conditions, the referee’s responsibility is to consistently apply the laws fairly and uniformly, and to ensure the rules are followed without waning or adversely influencing the competitiveness of the play. However, strenuous exercise in extreme environments imposes increased physiological and psychological stress that can affect decision-making. Therefore, the physical exertion required to follow the game and the thermal strain from the extreme temperatures may hinder the ability of referees to make fast and accurate decisions. Here, we review literature on the physical and cognitive requirements of football refereeing and how extreme temperatures may affect referees’ decisions. Research suggests that both hot and cold environments have a negative impact on decision-making but data specific to decision-making is still lacking. A theoretical model of decision-making under the constraint of intense physical activity and thermal stress is suggested. Future naturalistic studies are needed to validate this model and provide clear recommendations for mitigating strategies. PMID:28912742

  14. Refining multi-model projections of temperature extremes by evaluation against land-atmosphere coupling diagnostics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sippel, Sebastian; Zscheischler, Jakob; Mahecha, Miguel D.; Orth, Rene; Reichstein, Markus; Vogel, Martha; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

    2017-05-01

    The Earth's land surface and the atmosphere are strongly interlinked through the exchange of energy and matter. This coupled behaviour causes various land-atmosphere feedbacks, and an insufficient understanding of these feedbacks contributes to uncertain global climate model projections. For example, a crucial role of the land surface in exacerbating summer heat waves in midlatitude regions has been identified empirically for high-impact heat waves, but individual climate models differ widely in their respective representation of land-atmosphere coupling. Here, we compile an ensemble of 54 combinations of observations-based temperature (T) and evapotranspiration (ET) benchmarking datasets and investigate coincidences of T anomalies with ET anomalies as a proxy for land-atmosphere interactions during periods of anomalously warm temperatures. First, we demonstrate that a large fraction of state-of-the-art climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) archive produces systematically too frequent coincidences of high T anomalies with negative ET anomalies in midlatitude regions during the warm season and in several tropical regions year-round. These coincidences (high T, low ET) are closely related to the representation of temperature variability and extremes across the multi-model ensemble. Second, we derive a land-coupling constraint based on the spread of the T-ET datasets and consequently retain only a subset of CMIP5 models that produce a land-coupling behaviour that is compatible with these benchmark estimates. The constrained multi-model simulations exhibit more realistic temperature extremes of reduced magnitude in present climate in regions where models show substantial spread in T-ET coupling, i.e. biases in the model ensemble are consistently reduced. Also the multi-model simulations for the coming decades display decreased absolute temperature extremes in the constrained ensemble. On the other hand, the differences between projected

  15. Refining multi-model projections of temperature extremes by evaluation against land–atmosphere coupling diagnostics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Sippel

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available The Earth's land surface and the atmosphere are strongly interlinked through the exchange of energy and matter. This coupled behaviour causes various land–atmosphere feedbacks, and an insufficient understanding of these feedbacks contributes to uncertain global climate model projections. For example, a crucial role of the land surface in exacerbating summer heat waves in midlatitude regions has been identified empirically for high-impact heat waves, but individual climate models differ widely in their respective representation of land–atmosphere coupling. Here, we compile an ensemble of 54 combinations of observations-based temperature (T and evapotranspiration (ET benchmarking datasets and investigate coincidences of T anomalies with ET anomalies as a proxy for land–atmosphere interactions during periods of anomalously warm temperatures. First, we demonstrate that a large fraction of state-of-the-art climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5 archive produces systematically too frequent coincidences of high T anomalies with negative ET anomalies in midlatitude regions during the warm season and in several tropical regions year-round. These coincidences (high T, low ET are closely related to the representation of temperature variability and extremes across the multi-model ensemble. Second, we derive a land-coupling constraint based on the spread of the T–ET datasets and consequently retain only a subset of CMIP5 models that produce a land-coupling behaviour that is compatible with these benchmark estimates. The constrained multi-model simulations exhibit more realistic temperature extremes of reduced magnitude in present climate in regions where models show substantial spread in T–ET coupling, i.e. biases in the model ensemble are consistently reduced. Also the multi-model simulations for the coming decades display decreased absolute temperature extremes in the constrained ensemble. On the other hand

  16. Trends and periodicity of daily temperature and precipitation extremes during 1960-2013 in Hunan Province, central south China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Ajiao; He, Xinguang; Guan, Huade; Cai, Yi

    2018-04-01

    In this study, the trends and periodicity in climate extremes are examined in Hunan Province over the period 1960-2013 on the basis of 27 extreme climate indices calculated from daily temperature and precipitation records at 89 meteorological stations. The results show that in the whole province, temperature extremes exhibit a warming trend with more than 50% stations being statistically significant for 7 out of 16 temperature indices, and the nighttime temperature increases faster than the daytime temperature at the annual scale. The changes in most extreme temperature indices show strongly coherent spatial patterns. Moreover, the change rates of almost all temperature indices in north Hunan are greater than those of other regions. However, the statistically significant changes in indices of extreme precipitation are observed at fewer stations than in extreme temperature indices, forming less spatially coherent patterns. Positive trends in indices of extreme precipitation show that the amount and intensity of extreme precipitation events are generally increasing in both annual and seasonal scales, whereas the significant downward trend in consecutive wet days indicates that the precipitation becomes more even over the study period. Analysis of changes in probability distributions of extreme indices for 1960-1986 and 1987-2013 also demonstrates a remarkable shift toward warmer condition and increasing tendency in the amount and intensity of extreme precipitation during the past decades. The variations in extreme climate indices exhibit inconstant frequencies in the wavelet power spectrum. Among the 16 temperature indices, 2 of them show significant 1-year periodic oscillation and 7 of them exhibit significant 4-year cycle during some certain periods. However, significant periodic oscillations can be found in all of the precipitation indices. Wet-day precipitation and three absolute precipitation indices show significant 1-year cycle and other seven provide

  17. Using Annual Data to Estimate the Public Health Impact of Extreme Temperatures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goggins, William B; Yang, Chunyuh; Hokama, Tomiko; Law, Lewis S K; Chan, Emily Y Y

    2015-07-01

    Short-term associations between both hot and cold ambient temperatures and higher mortality have been found worldwide. Few studies have examined these associations on longer time scales. Age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) were calculated for 1976-2012 for Hong Kong SAR, People's Republic of China, defining "annual" time periods in 2 ways: from May through April of the following year and from November through October. Annual frequency and severity of extreme temperatures were summarized by using a degree-days approach with extreme heat expressed as annual degree-days >29.3°C and cold as annual degree-days ASMR, with adjustment for long-term trends. Increases of 10 hot or 200 cold degree-days in an annual period, the approximate interquartile ranges for these variables, were significantly (all P's ≤ 0.011) associated with 1.9% or 3.1% increases, respectively, in the annual ASMR for the May-April analyses and with 2.2% or 2.8% increases, respectively, in the November-October analyses. Associations were stronger for noncancer and elderly mortality. Mortality increases associated with extreme temperature are not simply due to short-term forward displacement of deaths that would have occurred anyway within a few weeks. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  18. Extremes temperatures and enthalpy in Finland and Sweden in a changing climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Venaelaeinen, A.; Saku, S.; Jylhae, K. (Finnish Meteorological Institute (Finland)); Nikulin, G.; Kjellstroem, E.; Baerring, L. (Swedish Meteorological Institute (Sweden))

    2009-06-15

    Though risks caused by harsh weather conditions are taken into account in the planning of nuclear power plants, some exceptional weather events or combination of different events may prevent normal power operation and simultaneously endanger safe shutdown of the plant. Extreme weather events could influence, for example, the external power grid connection, emergency diesel generators (blockage of air intakes), ventilation and cooling of electric and electronics equipment rooms and the seawater intake. Due to the influence of an intensified greenhouse effect the climate is changing rapidly during the coming decades and this change is expected to have an influence also on the occurrence of extreme weather events. In this report we have examined extreme temperatures. Enthalpy is a parameter that combines air temperature and air humidity and it is used in the design of air conditioning systems. Therefore, we have included also return levels of enthalpy in our analysis. The influence of climate change on extreme temperatures is analysed based on regional climate model simulations. The reoccurrence times of high temperatures combined with high air humidity was analysed based on measurements made at five Finnish and three Swedish meteorological stations. Based on the observational records we find the 10 year return level of daily maximum temperature to be around 32 deg. C and the 100 year return level around 35 deg. C. If we look the return levels of warm and humid conditions then for example in Helsinki the 10 year return level of one week mean temperature in case mean air humidity is above 80% is 20.1 deg. C. The 10 year return level of daily maximum enthalpy is around 60 kJ/kg and the 100 year return level almost 70 kJ/kg. According to the climate model simulations the largest increase of 50-year return level of daily maximum temperature is found in southern Sweden and south-western Finland. By the end of this century the increase can be 3-5 deg. C. The largest change

  19. Tendencies of extreme values on rainfall and temperature and its relationship with teleconnection patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taboada, J. J.; Cabrejo, A.; Guarin, D.; Ramos, A. M.

    2009-04-01

    It is now very well established that yearly averaged temperatures are increasing due to anthropogenic climate change. In the area of Galicia (NW Spain) this trend has also been determined. Rainfall does not show a clear tendency in its yearly accumulated values. The aim of this work is to study different extreme indices of rainfall and temperatures analysing variability and possible trends associated to climate change. Station data for the study was provided by the CLIMA database of the regional government of Galicia (NW Spain). The definition of the extreme indices was taken from the joint CCl/CLIVAR/JCOMM Expert Team (ET) on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) This group has defined a set of standard extreme values to simplify intercomparison of data from different regions of the world. For the temperatures in the period 1960-2006, results show a significant increase of the number of days with maximum temperatures above the 90th percentile. Furthermore, a significant decrease of the days with maximum temperatures below the 10th percentile has been found. The tendencies of minimum temperatures are reverse: fewer nights with minimum temperatures below 10th percentile, and more with minimum temperatures above 90th percentile. Those tendencies can be observed all over the year, but are more pronounced in summer. This trend is expected to continue in the next decades because of anthropogenic climate change. We have also calculated the relationship between the above mentioned extreme values and different teleconnection patterns appearing in the North Atlantic area. Results show that local tendencies are associated with trends of EA (Eastern Atlantic) and SCA (Scandinavian) patterns. NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) has also some relationship with these tendencies, but only related with cold days and nights in winter. Rainfall index do not show any clear tendency on the annual scale. Nevertheless, the count of days when precipitation is greater than 20mm (R20

  20. Extremes temperatures and enthalpy in Finland and Sweden in a changing climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Venaelaeinen, A.; Saku, S.; Jylhae, K.; Nikulin, G.; Kjellstroem, E.; Baerring, L.

    2009-06-01

    Though risks caused by harsh weather conditions are taken into account in the planning of nuclear power plants, some exceptional weather events or combination of different events may prevent normal power operation and simultaneously endanger safe shutdown of the plant. Extreme weather events could influence, for example, the external power grid connection, emergency diesel generators (blockage of air intakes), ventilation and cooling of electric and electronics equipment rooms and the seawater intake. Due to the influence of an intensified greenhouse effect the climate is changing rapidly during the coming decades and this change is expected to have an influence also on the occurrence of extreme weather events. In this report we have examined extreme temperatures. Enthalpy is a parameter that combines air temperature and air humidity and it is used in the design of air conditioning systems. Therefore, we have included also return levels of enthalpy in our analysis. The influence of climate change on extreme temperatures is analysed based on regional climate model simulations. The reoccurrence times of high temperatures combined with high air humidity was analysed based on measurements made at five Finnish and three Swedish meteorological stations. Based on the observational records we find the 10 year return level of daily maximum temperature to be around 32 deg. C and the 100 year return level around 35 deg. C. If we look the return levels of warm and humid conditions then for example in Helsinki the 10 year return level of one week mean temperature in case mean air humidity is above 80% is 20.1 deg. C. The 10 year return level of daily maximum enthalpy is around 60 kJ/kg and the 100 year return level almost 70 kJ/kg. According to the climate model simulations the largest increase of 50-year return level of daily maximum temperature is found in southern Sweden and south-western Finland. By the end of this century the increase can be 3-5 deg. C. The largest change

  1. Spatiotemporal distribution characteristics and attribution of extreme regional low temperature event

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Feng Tai-Chen; Zhang Ke-Quan; Wang Xiao-Juan; Zhang Wen-Yu; Su Hai-Jing; Gong Zhi-Qiang

    2015-01-01

    Based on an objective identification technique for regional low temperature event (OITRLTE), the daily minimum temperature in China has been detected from 1960 to 2013. During this period, there were 60 regional extreme low temperature events (ERLTEs), which are included in the 690 regional low temperature events (RLTEs). The 60 ERLTEs are analyzed in this paper. The results show that in the last 50 years, the intensity of the ERLTEs has become weak; the number of lasted days has decreased; and, the affected area has become small. However, that situation has changed in this century. In terms of spatial distribution, the high intensity regions are mainly in Northern China while the high frequency regions concentrate in Central and Eastern China. According to the affected area of each event, the 60 ERLTEs are classified into six types. The atmospheric circulation background fields which correspond to these types are also analyzed. The results show that, influenced by stronger blocking highs of Ural and Lake Baikal, as well as stronger southward polar vortex and East Asia major trough at 500-hPa geopotential height, cold air from high latitudes is guided to move southward and abnormal northerly winds at 850 hPa makes the cold air blow into China along diverse paths, thereby forming different types of regional extreme low temperatures in winter. (paper)

  2. Extreme temperature events affecting the electricity distribution system of the metropolitan area of Buenos Aires (1971–2013)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Santágata, Daniela M.; Castesana, Paula; Rössler, Cristina E.; Gómez, Darío R.

    2017-01-01

    We studied the role of cold waves and heat waves on major power outages in the metropolitan area of Buenos Aires. Impacts of events occurring in the tails of distributions were assessed estimating deviations of minimum temperature, maximum temperature and hourly electricity consumption with respect to statistically derived thresholds and using three sets of data: temperature observations (1911–2013); major power outages reported in a disaster database (1971–2013) and hourly electricity consumption (2006–2013). These deviations (exceedances) proved to be adequate indicators of the stress posed by extreme temperature events to the electricity distribution system leading to major blackouts. Based on these indicators, we found that the electricity distribution system was under similar stress during cold waves or heat waves, but it was much more vulnerable to heat waves (three blackouts under cold waves against 20 under heat waves between 2006 and 2013). For heat waves, the results of a binomial regression logistic model provided an adequate description of the probability of disastrous supply interruptions in terms of exceedances in extreme temperatures and electricity consumption stress. This approach may be of use for other cities wishing to evaluate the effects of extreme temperature events on the electricity distribution infrastructure. - Highlights: • The linkage between extreme temperatures and disastrous power outages is analyzed. • Exceedance in extreme temperature and electricity consumption are stress indicators. • Extreme temperatures pose moderate to extreme impacts to electricity distribution. • Electricity distribution is more vulnerable to heat waves than cold waves.

  3. Effects of temperature and copper pollution on soil community--extreme temperature events can lead to community extinction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Menezes-Oliveira, Vanessa B; Scott-Fordsmand, Janeck J; Soares, Amadeu M V M; Amorim, Monica J B

    2013-12-01

    Global warming affects ecosystems and species' diversity. The physiology of individual species is highly influenced by changes in temperature. The effects on species communities are less studied; they are virtually unknown when combining effects of pollution and temperature. To assess the effects of temperature and pollution in the soil community, a 2-factorial soil mesocosms multispecies experiment was performed. Three exposure periods (28 d, 61 d, and 84 d) and 4 temperatures (19 °C, 23 °C, 26 °C, and 29 °C) were tested, resembling the mean annual values for southern Europe countries and extreme events. The soil used was from a field site, clean, or spiked with Cu (100 mg Cu/kg). Results showed clear differences between 29 °C treatment and all other temperature treatments, with a decrease in overall abundance of organisms, further potentiated by the increase in exposure time. Folsomia candida was the most abundant species and Enchytraeus crypticus was the most sensitive to Cu toxicity. Differences in species optimum temperatures were adequately covered: 19 °C for Hypoaspis aculeifer or 26 °C for E. crypticus. The temperature effects were more pronounced the longer the exposure time. Feeding activity decreased with higher temperature and exposure time, following the decrease in invertebrate abundance, whereas for the same conditions the organic matter turnover increased. Hence, negative impacts on ecosystem services because of temperature increase can be expected by changes on soil function and as consequence of biodiversity loss. © 2013 SETAC.

  4. Quality changes of long-life foods during three-month storage at different temperatures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zuzana Bubelová

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study was to describe quality changes of eight long-life foods (instant potato purée with milk, instant goulash soup, canned white-type cheese, pre-baked baguette, szeged goulash meal-ready-to-eat, canned chicken meat, pork pate and canned tuna fish during three-month storage at 4 different temperatures (-18 °C, 5 °C, 23 °C and 40 °C. These temperatures were chosen to simulate various climatic conditions in which these foods could be used to ensure the boarding during crisis situations and military operations to provide high level of sustainability. Foods were assessed in terms of microbiological (total number of aerobic and/or facultative anaerobic mesophilic microorganisms, number of aerobic and anaerobic spore-forming microorganisms, number of enterobacteria, number of yeasts and/or moulds, chemical (pH-values, dry matter, fat, crude protein, ammonia and thiobarbituric acid reactive substances contents, texture profile (hardness and sensory (appearance, consistency, firmness, flavour and off-flavour analyses. Microbiological analyses showed expected results with the exception of szeged goulash, pork pate and tuna fish, which, although being sterilised products, contained some counts of bacteria. The decrease of pH-values and increase of dry matter, ammonia and thiobarbituric acid reactive substances contents were observed during the storage of all foods due to prolonged storage time and/or elevated storage temperature. Furthermore, according to texture profile analysis, hardness of cheese and baguette rose as a result of both storage temperature and time. Finally, the highest storage temperature (40 °C resulted in a deterioration of sensory quality (especially flavour of most foods; the exceptions were pate and tuna fish which retained good sensory quality throughout 3-month storage at all temperatures.

  5. The course of health status and (health-related) quality of life following fracture of the lower extremity : A 6-month follow-up study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Son, Marleen; de Vries, J.; Roukema, J.A.; Gosens, T.; Verhofstad, M. H. J.; den Oudsten, B.L.

    2016-01-01

    Purpose The aim of this prospective study was to describe the course of health status (HS), health-related quality of life, and quality of life (QOL) in patients with lower extremity fractures (LEF) up to 6 months post-fracture. Methods Patients (n = 171; age range 18–100 years) completed the World

  6. The course of health status and (health-related) quality of life following fracture of the lower extremity: a 6-month follow-up study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M.A.C. van Son; J. de Vries (Jolanda); J.A. Roukema; T. Gosens; M.H.J. Verhofstad (Michiel); B.L. den Oudsten (Brenda)

    2016-01-01

    textabstractPurpose: The aim of this prospective study was to describe the course of health status (HS), health-related quality of life, and quality of life (QOL) in patients with lower extremity fractures (LEF) up to 6 months post-fracture. Methods: Patients (n = 171; age range 18–100 years)

  7. Ignition and combustion of pyrotechnics at low pressures and at temperature extremes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Clive Woodley

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Rapid and effective ignition of pyrotechnic countermeasure decoy flares is vitally important to the safety of expensive military platforms such as aircraft. QinetiQ is conducting experimental and theoretical research into pyrotechnic countermeasure decoy flares. A key part of this work is the development and application of improved models to increase the understanding of the ignition processes occurring for these flares. These models have been implemented in a two-dimensional computational model and details are described in this paper. Previous work has conducted experiments and validated the computational model at ambient temperature and pressure. More recently the computational model has been validated at pressures down to that equivalent to 40,000 feet but at ambient temperature (∼290 K. This paper describes further experimental work in which the ignition delays of the priming material in inert countermeasure decoy flares were determined for pressures down to 40,000 feet and at temperature extremes of −40 °C and 100 °C. Also included in this paper is a comparison of the measured and predicted ignition delays at low pressures and temperature extremes. The agreement between the predicted and measured ignition delays is acceptable.

  8. Extreme summer temperatures in Iberia: health impacts and associated synoptic conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. García-Herrera

    2005-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the effect of extreme summer temperatures on daily mortality in two large cities of Iberia: Lisbon (Portugal and Madrid (Spain. Daily mortality and meteorological variables are analysed using the same methodology based on Box-Jenkins models. Results reveal that in both cases there is a triggering effect on mortality when maximum daily temperature exceeds a given threshold (34°C in Lisbon and 36°C in Madrid. The impact of most intense heat events is very similar for both cities, with significant mortality values occurring up to 3 days after the temperature threshold has been surpassed. This impact is measured as the percentual increase of mortality associated to a 1°C increase above the threshold temperature. In this respect, Lisbon shows a higher impact, 31%, as compared with Madrid at 21%. The difference can be attributed to demographic and socio-economic factors. Furthermore, the longer life span of Iberian women is critical to explain why, in both cities, females are more susceptible than males to heat effects, with an almost double mortality impact value.

    The analysis of Sea Level Pressure (SLP, 500hPa geopotential height and temperature fields reveals that, despite being relatively close to each other, Lisbon and Madrid have relatively different synoptic circulation anomalies associated with their respective extreme summer temperature days. The SLP field reveals higher anomalies for Lisbon, but extending over a smaller area. Extreme values in Madrid seem to require a more western location of the Azores High, embracing a greater area over Europe, even if it is not as deep as for Lisbon. The origin of the hot and dry air masses that usually lead to extreme heat days in both cities is located in Northern Africa. However, while Madrid maxima require wind blowing directly from the south, transporting heat from Southern Spain and Northern Africa, Lisbon maxima occur under more easterly

  9. Extreme summer temperatures in Iberia: health impacts and associated synoptic conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. García-Herrera

    2005-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the effect of extreme summer temperatures on daily mortality in two large cities of Iberia: Lisbon (Portugal and Madrid (Spain. Daily mortality and meteorological variables are analysed using the same methodology based on Box-Jenkins models. Results reveal that in both cases there is a triggering effect on mortality when maximum daily temperature exceeds a given threshold (34°C in Lisbon and 36°C in Madrid. The impact of most intense heat events is very similar for both cities, with significant mortality values occurring up to 3 days after the temperature threshold has been surpassed. This impact is measured as the percentual increase of mortality associated to a 1°C increase above the threshold temperature. In this respect, Lisbon shows a higher impact, 31%, as compared with Madrid at 21%. The difference can be attributed to demographic and socio-economic factors. Furthermore, the longer life span of Iberian women is critical to explain why, in both cities, females are more susceptible than males to heat effects, with an almost double mortality impact value. The analysis of Sea Level Pressure (SLP, 500hPa geopotential height and temperature fields reveals that, despite being relatively close to each other, Lisbon and Madrid have relatively different synoptic circulation anomalies associated with their respective extreme summer temperature days. The SLP field reveals higher anomalies for Lisbon, but extending over a smaller area. Extreme values in Madrid seem to require a more western location of the Azores High, embracing a greater area over Europe, even if it is not as deep as for Lisbon. The origin of the hot and dry air masses that usually lead to extreme heat days in both cities is located in Northern Africa. However, while Madrid maxima require wind blowing directly from the south, transporting heat from Southern Spain and Northern Africa, Lisbon maxima occur under more easterly conditions, when Northern African air

  10. Elucidating the impact of temperature variability and extremes on cereal croplands through remote sensing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duncan, John M A; Dash, Jadunandan; Atkinson, Peter M

    2015-04-01

    Remote sensing-derived wheat crop yield-climate models were developed to highlight the impact of temperature variation during thermo-sensitive periods (anthesis and grain-filling; TSP) of wheat crop development. Specific questions addressed are: can the impact of temperature variation occurring during the TSP on wheat crop yield be detected using remote sensing data and what is the impact? Do crop critical temperature thresholds during TSP exist in real world cropping landscapes? These questions are tested in one of the world's major wheat breadbaskets of Punjab and Haryana, north-west India. Warming average minimum temperatures during the TSP had a greater negative impact on wheat crop yield than warming maximum temperatures. Warming minimum and maximum temperatures during the TSP explain a greater amount of variation in wheat crop yield than average growing season temperature. In complex real world cereal croplands there was a variable yield response to critical temperature threshold exceedance, specifically a more pronounced negative impact on wheat yield with increased warming events above 35 °C. The negative impact of warming increases with a later start-of-season suggesting earlier sowing can reduce wheat crop exposure harmful temperatures. However, even earlier sown wheat experienced temperature-induced yield losses, which, when viewed in the context of projected warming up to 2100 indicates adaptive responses should focus on increasing wheat tolerance to heat. This study shows it is possible to capture the impacts of temperature variation during the TSP on wheat crop yield in real world cropping landscapes using remote sensing data; this has important implications for monitoring the impact of climate change, variation and heat extremes on wheat croplands. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  11. Evaluation of trends in high temperature extremes in north-western Europe in regional climate models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Min, E; Hazeleger, W; Van Oldenborgh, G J; Sterl, A

    2013-01-01

    Projections of future changes in weather extremes on the regional and local scale depend on a realistic representation of trends in extremes in regional climate models (RCMs). We have tested this assumption for moderate high temperature extremes (the annual maximum of the daily maximum 2 m temperature, T ann.max ). Linear trends in T ann.max from historical runs of 14 RCMs driven by atmospheric reanalysis data are compared with trends in gridded station data. The ensemble of RCMs significantly underestimates the observed trends over most of the north-western European land surface. Individual models do not fare much better, with even the best performing models underestimating observed trends over large areas. We argue that the inability of RCMs to reproduce observed trends is probably not due to errors in large-scale circulation. There is also no significant correlation between the RCM T ann.max trends and trends in radiation or Bowen ratio. We conclude that care should be taken when using RCM data for adaptation decisions. (letter)

  12. Calibration and combination of monthly near-surface temperature and precipitation predictions over Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodrigues, Luis R. L.; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J.; Coelho, Caio A. S.

    2018-02-01

    A Bayesian method known as the Forecast Assimilation (FA) was used to calibrate and combine monthly near-surface temperature and precipitation outputs from seasonal dynamical forecast systems. The simple multimodel (SMM), a method that combines predictions with equal weights, was used as a benchmark. This research focuses on Europe and adjacent regions for predictions initialized in May and November, covering the boreal summer and winter months. The forecast quality of the FA and SMM as well as the single seasonal dynamical forecast systems was assessed using deterministic and probabilistic measures. A non-parametric bootstrap method was used to account for the sampling uncertainty of the forecast quality measures. We show that the FA performs as well as or better than the SMM in regions where the dynamical forecast systems were able to represent the main modes of climate covariability. An illustration with the near-surface temperature over North Atlantic, the Mediterranean Sea and Middle-East in summer months associated with the well predicted first mode of climate covariability is offered. However, the main modes of climate covariability are not well represented in most situations discussed in this study as the seasonal dynamical forecast systems have limited skill when predicting the European climate. In these situations, the SMM performs better more often.

  13. MOnthly TEmperature DAtabase of Spain 1951-2010: MOTEDAS. (1) Quality control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peña-Angulo, Dhais; Cortesi, Nicola; Simolo, Claudia; Stepanek, Peter; Brunetti, Michele; González-Hidalgo, José Carlos

    2014-05-01

    The HIDROCAES project (Impactos Hidrológicos del Calentamiento Global en España, Spanish Ministery of Research CGL2011-27574-C02-01) is focused on the high resolution in the Spanish continental land of the warming processes during the 1951-2010. To do that the Department of Geography (University of Zaragoza, Spain), the Hydrometeorological Service (Brno Division, Chezck Republic) and the ISAC-CNR (Bologna, Italy) are developing the new dataset MOTEDAS (MOnthly TEmperature DAtabase of Spain), from which we present a collection of poster to show (1) the general structure of dataset and quality control; (2) the analyses of spatial correlation of monthly mean values of maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin temperature; (3) the reconstruction processes of series and high resolution grid developing; (4) the first initial results of trend analyses of annual, seasonal and monthly range mean values. MOTEDAS has been created after exhaustive analyses and quality control of the original digitalized data of the Spanish National Meteorological Agency (Agencia Estatal de Meteorología, AEMET). Quality control was applied without any prior reconstruction, i.e. on original series. Then, from the total amount of series stored at AEMet archives (more than 4680) we selected only those series with at least 10 years of data (i.e. 120 months, 3066 series) to apply a quality control and reconstruction processes (see Poster MOTEDAS 3). Length of series was Tmin, upper and lower thresholds of absolute data, etc), and by comparison with reference series (see Poster MOTEDAS 3, about reconstruction). Anomalous data were considered when difference between Candidate and Reference series were higher than three times the interquartile distance. The total amount of monthly suspicious data recognized and discarded at the end of this analyses was 7832 data for Tmin, and 8063 for Tmax data; they represent less than 0,8% of original total monthly data, for both Tmax and Tmin. No spatial pattern was

  14. Reliability of Ceramic Column Grid Array Interconnect Packages Under Extreme Temperatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramesham, Rajeshuni

    2011-01-01

    A paper describes advanced ceramic column grid array (CCGA) packaging interconnects technology test objects that were subjected to extreme temperature thermal cycles. CCGA interconnect electronic package printed wiring boards (PWBs) of polyimide were assembled, inspected nondestructively, and, subsequently, subjected to ex - treme-temperature thermal cycling to assess reliability for future deep-space, short- and long-term, extreme-temperature missions. The test hardware consisted of two CCGA717 packages with each package divided into four daisy-chained sections, for a total of eight daisy chains to be monitored. The package is 33 33 mm with a 27 27 array of 80%/20% Pb/Sn columns on a 1.27-mm pitch. The change in resistance of the daisy-chained CCGA interconnects was measured as a function of the increasing number of thermal cycles. Several catastrophic failures were observed after 137 extreme-temperature thermal cycles, as per electrical resistance measurements, and then the tests were continued through 1,058 thermal cycles to corroborate and understand the test results. X-ray and optical inspection have been made after thermal cycling. Optical inspections were also conducted on the CCGA vs. thermal cycles. The optical inspections were conclusive; the x-ray images were not. Process qualification and assembly is required to optimize the CCGA assembly, which is very clear from the x-rays. Six daisy chains were open out of seven daisy chains, as per experimental test data reported. The daisy chains are open during the cold cycle, and then recover during the hot cycle, though some of them also opened during the hot thermal cycle..

  15. Microbiological viability of bovine amniotic membrane stored in glycerin 99% at room temperature for 48 months

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kelly Cristine de Sousa Pontes

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT The medium for storing biological tissues is of great importance for their optimal use in surgery. Glycerin has been proven efficient for storing diverse tissues for prolonged time, but the preservation of the bovine amniotic membrane in glycerin 99% at room temperature has never been evaluated to be used safely in surgical procedures. This study evaluated the preservation of 80 bovine amniotic membrane samples stored in glycerin 99% at room temperature. The samples were randomly divided evenly into four groups. Samples were microbiologically tested after 1, 6, 12 and 48 months of storage. The presence of bacteria and fungi in the samples was evaluated by inoculation on blood agar and incubation at 37 ºC for 48 hours and on Sabouraud agar at 25 ºC for 5 to 10 days. No fungal or bacterial growth was detected in any of the samples. It was concluded that glycerin is an efficient medium, regarding microbiology, for preserving pre-prepared bovine amniotic membrane, keeping the tissue free of microorganisms that grow in the media up to 48 months at room temperature.

  16. Cognitive development in 7- to 24-month-old extremely/very-to-moderately/late preterm and full-term born infants: The mediating role of focused attention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reuner, Gitta; Weinschenk, Andrea; Pauen, Sabina; Pietz, Joachim

    2015-01-01

    The present study analyzed the links between prematurity, attention, and global cognitive performance in infancy and early childhood. At 7 months, focused attention (FA) was examined with an object examination task in 93 preterm infants (39 of them born extremely/very preterm, 54 born moderately/late preterm, and 38 infants born full-term). Global cognition was assessed at 7 and 24 months with the Bayley-II cognitive scale. Groups did not differ with respect to global cognitive performance but FA of infants born extremely/very preterm was significantly lower than in infants born moderately/late preterm. FA correlated significantly with both prematurity and cognitive performance at 7 months of age but not with global cognition in childhood. Findings point to a subtle adverse effect of prematurity on early attention and reveal evidence for the mediating role of FA on the effect of prematurity on cognition.

  17. Composite Materials under Extreme Radiation and Temperature Environments of the Next Generation Nuclear Reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simos, N.

    2011-01-01

    In the nuclear energy renaissance, driven by fission reactor concepts utilizing very high temperatures and fast neutron spectra, materials with enhanced performance that exceeds are expected to play a central role. With the operating temperatures of the Generation III reactors bringing the classical reactor materials close to their performance limits there is an urgent need to develop and qualify new alloys and composites. Efforts have been focused on the intricate relations and the high demands placed on materials at the anticipated extreme states within the next generation fusion and fission reactors which combine high radiation fluxes, elevated temperatures and aggressive environments. While nuclear reactors have been in operation for several decades, the structural materials associated with the next generation options need to endure much higher temperatures (1200 C), higher neutron doses (tens of displacements per atom, dpa), and extremely corrosive environments, which are beyond the experience on materials accumulated to-date. The most important consideration is the performance and reliability of structural materials for both in-core and out-of-core functions. While there exists a great body of nuclear materials research and operating experience/performance from fission reactors where epithermal and thermal neutrons interact with materials and alter their physio-mechanical properties, a process that is well understood by now, there are no operating or even experimental facilities that will facilitate the extreme conditions of flux and temperature anticipated and thus provide insights into the behaviour of these well understood materials. Materials, however, still need to be developed and their interaction and damage potential or lifetime to be quantified for the next generation nuclear energy. Based on material development advances, composites, and in particular ceramic composites, seem to inherently possess properties suitable for key functions within the

  18. Synoptic monthly gridded Global Temperature and Salinity Profile Programme (GTSPP) water temperature and salinity from January 1990 to December 2009 (NCEI Accession 0138647)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The synoptic gridded Global Temperature and Salinity Profile Programme (SG-GTSPP) provides world ocean 3D gridded temperature and salinity data in monthly increment...

  19. Actual and future trends of extreme values of temperature for the NW Iberian Peninsula

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taboada, J.; Brands, S.; Lorenzo, N.

    2009-09-01

    It is now very well established that yearly averaged temperatures are increasing due to anthropogenic climate change. In the area of Galicia (NW Spain) this trend has also been determined. The main objective of this work is to assess actual and future trends of different extreme indices of temperature, which are of curcial importance for many impact studies. Station data for the study was provided by the CLIMA database of the regional government of Galicia (NW Spain). As direct GCM-output significantly underestimates the variance of daily surface temperature variables in NW Spain, these variables are obtained by applying a statistical downscaling technique (analog method), using 850hPa temperature and mean sea level pressure as combined predictors. The predictor fields have been extracted from three GCMs participating in the IPCC AR4 under A1, A1B and A2 scenarios. The definitions of the extreme indices have been taken from the joint CCl/CLIVAR/JCOMM Expert Team (ET) on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) This group has defined a set of standard extreme values to simplify intercomparisons of data from different regions of the world. For the temperatures in the period 1960-2006, results show a significant increase of the number of days with maximum temperatures above the 90th percentile. Furthermore, a significant decrease of the days with maximum temperatures below the 10th percentile has been found. The tendencies of minimum temperatures are reverse: less nights with minimum temperatures below 10th percentile, and more with minimum temperatures above 90th percentile. Those tendencies can be observed all over the year, but are more pronounced in summer. We have also calculated the relationship between the above mentioned extreme values and different teleconnection patterns appearing in the North Atlantic area. Results show that local tendencies are associated with trends of EA (Eastern Atlantic) and SCA (Scandinavian) patterns. NAO (North Atlantic

  20. TEMPERATURE AND EXTREME-ULTRAVIOLET INTENSITY IN A CORONAL PROMINENCE CAVITY AND STREAMER

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kucera, T. A. [NASA/GSFC, Code 671, Greenbelt, MD 20771 (United States); Gibson, S. E.; Schmit, D. J. [HAO/NCAR, P.O. Box 3000, Boulder, CO 80307-3000 (United States); Landi, E. [Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Space Science, Space Research Building, University of Michigan, 2455 Hayward St., Ann Arbor, MI 48109-2143 (United States); Tripathi, D. [Inter-University Centre for Astronomy and Astrophysics, Post Bag-4, Ganeshkhind, Pune University Campus, Pune 411 007 (India)

    2012-09-20

    We analyze the temperature and EUV line emission of a coronal cavity and surrounding streamer in terms of a morphological forward model. We use a series of iron line ratios observed with the Hinode Extreme-ultraviolet Imaging Spectrograph (EIS) on 2007 August 9 to constrain temperature as a function of altitude in a morphological forward model of the streamer and cavity. We also compare model predictions to the EIS EUV line intensities and polarized brightness (pB) data from the Mauna Loa Solar Observatory (MLSO) Mark 4 K-coronameter. This work builds on earlier analysis using the same model to determine geometry of and density in the same cavity and streamer. The fit to the data with altitude-dependent temperature profiles indicates that both the streamer and cavity have temperatures in the range 1.4-1.7 MK. However, the cavity exhibits substantial substructure such that the altitude-dependent temperature profile is not sufficient to completely model conditions in the cavity. Coronal prominence cavities are structured by magnetism so clues to this structure are to be found in their plasma properties. These temperature substructures are likely related to structures in the cavity magnetic field. Furthermore, we find that the model overestimates the EUV line intensities by a factor of 4-10, without overestimating pB. We discuss this difference in terms of filling factors and uncertainties in density diagnostics and elemental abundances.

  1. Estimating spatially distributed monthly evapotranspiration rates by linear transformations of MODIS daytime land surface temperature data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Szilagyi

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available Under simplifying conditions catchment-scale vapor pressure at the drying land surface can be calculated as a function of its watershed-representative temperature (<Ts> by the wet-surface equation (WSE, similar to the wet-bulb equation in meteorology for calculating the dry-bulb thermometer vapor pressure of the Complementary Relationship of evaporation. The corresponding watershed ET rate, , is obtained from the Bowen ratio with the help of air temperature, humidity and percent possible sunshine data. The resulting (<Ts>, pair together with the wet-environment surface temperature (<Tws> and ET rate (ETw, obtained by the Priestley-Taylor equation, define a linear transformation on a monthly basis by which spatially distributed ET rates can be estimated as a sole function of MODIS daytime land surface temperature, Ts, values within the watershed. The linear transformation preserves the mean which is highly desirable. <Tws>, in the lack of significant open water surfaces within the study watershed (Elkhorn, Nebraska, was obtained as the mean of the smallest MODIS Ts values each month. The resulting period-averaged (2000–2007 catchment-scale ET rate of 624 mm/yr is very close to the water-balance derived ET rate of about 617 mm/yr. The latter is a somewhat uncertain value due to the effects of (a observed groundwater depletion of about 1m over the study period caused by extensive irrigation, and; (b the uncertain rate of net regional groundwater supply toward the watershed. The spatially distributed ET rates correspond well with soil/aquifer properties and the resulting land use type (i.e. rangeland versus center-pivot irrigated crops.

  2. The relative importance among anthropogenic forcings of land use/land cover change in affecting temperature extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Liang; Dirmeyer, Paul A.

    2018-05-01

    Land use/land cover change (LULCC) exerts significant influence on regional climate extremes, but its relative importance compared with other anthropogenic climate forcings has not been thoroughly investigated. This study compares land use forcing with other forcing agents in explaining the simulated historical temperature extreme changes since preindustrial times in the CESM-Last Millennium Ensemble (LME) project. CESM-LME suggests that the land use forcing has caused an overall cooling in both warm and cold extremes, and has significantly decreased diurnal temperature range (DTR). Due to the competing effects of the GHG and aerosol forcings, the spatial pattern of changes in 1850-2005 climatology of temperature extremes in CESM-LME can be largely explained by the land use forcing, especially for hot extremes and DTR. The dominance of land use forcing is particularly evident over Europe, eastern China, and the central and eastern US. Temporally, the land-use cooling is relatively stable throughout the historical period, while the warming of temperature extremes is mainly influenced by the enhanced GHG forcing, which has gradually dampened the local dominance of the land use effects. Results from the suite of CMIP5 experiments partially agree with the local dominance of the land use forcing in CESM-LME, but inter-model discrepancies exist in the distribution and sign of the LULCC-induced temperature changes. Our results underline the overall importance of LULCC in historical temperature extreme changes, implying land use forcing should be highlighted in future climate projections.

  3. Observed changes in extremes of daily rainfall and temperature in Jemma Sub-Basin, Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Worku, Gebrekidan; Teferi, Ermias; Bantider, Amare; Dile, Yihun T.

    2018-02-01

    Climate variability has been a threat to the socio-economic development of Ethiopia. This paper examined the changes in rainfall, minimum, and maximum temperature extremes of Jemma Sub-Basin of the Upper Blue Nile Basin for the period of 1981 to 2014. The nonparametric Mann-Kendall, seasonal Mann-Kendall, and Sen's slope estimator were used to estimate annual trends. Ten rainfall and 12 temperature indices were used to study changes in rainfall and temperature extremes. The results showed an increasing trend of annual and summer rainfall in more than 78% of the stations and a decreasing trend of spring rainfall in most of the stations. An increase in rainfall extreme events was detected in the majority of the stations. Several rainfall extreme indices showed wetting trends in the sub-basin, whereas limited indices indicated dryness in most of the stations. Annual maximum and minimum temperature and extreme temperature indices showed warming trend in the sub-basin. Presence of extreme rainfall and a warming trend of extreme temperature indices may suggest signs of climate change in the Jemma Sub-Basin. This study, therefore, recommended the need for exploring climate induced risks and implementing appropriate climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies.

  4. Spatiotemporal distribution characteristics and attribution of extreme regional low temperature event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Tai-Chen; Zhang, Ke-Quan; Su, Hai-Jing; Wang, Xiao-Juan; Gong, Zhi-Qiang; Zhang, Wen-Yu

    2015-10-01

    Based on an objective identification technique for regional low temperature event (OITRLTE), the daily minimum temperature in China has been detected from 1960 to 2013. During this period, there were 60 regional extreme low temperature events (ERLTEs), which are included in the 690 regional low temperature events (RLTEs). The 60 ERLTEs are analyzed in this paper. The results show that in the last 50 years, the intensity of the ERLTEs has become weak; the number of lasted days has decreased; and, the affected area has become small. However, that situation has changed in this century. In terms of spatial distribution, the high intensity regions are mainly in Northern China while the high frequency regions concentrate in Central and Eastern China. According to the affected area of each event, the 60 ERLTEs are classified into six types. The atmospheric circulation background fields which correspond to these types are also analyzed. The results show that, influenced by stronger blocking highs of Ural and Lake Baikal, as well as stronger southward polar vortex and East Asia major trough at 500-hPa geopotential height, cold air from high latitudes is guided to move southward and abnormal northerly winds at 850 hPa makes the cold air blow into China along diverse paths, thereby forming different types of regional extreme low temperatures in winter. Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41305075), the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant Nos. 2012CB955203 and 2012CB955902), and the Special Scientific Research on Public Welfare Industry, China (Grant No. GYHY201306049).

  5. Climatological Modeling of Monthly Air Temperature and Precipitation in Egypt through GIS Techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    El Kenawy, A.

    2009-09-01

    This paper describes a method for modeling and mapping four climatic variables (maximum temperature, minimum temperature, mean temperature and total precipitation) in Egypt using a multiple regression approach implemented in a GIS environment. In this model, a set of variables including latitude, longitude, elevation within a distance of 5, 10 and 15 km, slope, aspect, distance to the Mediterranean Sea, distance to the Red Sea, distance to the Nile, ratio between land and water masses within a radius of 5, 10, 15 km, the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), the Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI), the Normalized Difference Temperature Index (NDTI) and reflectance are included as independent variables. These variables were integrated as raster layers in MiraMon software at a spatial resolution of 1 km. Climatic variables were considered as dependent variables and averaged from quality controlled and homogenized 39 series distributing across the entire country during the period of (1957-2006). For each climatic variable, digital and objective maps were finally obtained using the multiple regression coefficients at monthly, seasonal and annual timescale. The accuracy of these maps were assessed through cross-validation between predicted and observed values using a set of statistics including coefficient of determination (R2), root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), mean bias Error (MBE) and D Willmott statistic. These maps are valuable in the sense of spatial resolution as well as the number of observatories involved in the current analysis.

  6. Observed Trends in Indices of Daily Precipitation and Temperature Extremes in Rio de Janeiro State (brazil)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silva, W. L.; Dereczynski, C. P.; Cavalcanti, I. F.

    2013-05-01

    One of the main concerns of contemporary society regarding prevailing climate change is related to possible changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme events. Strong heat and cold waves, droughts, severe floods, and other climatic extremes have been of great interest to researchers because of its huge impact on the environment and population, causing high monetary damages and, in some cases, loss of life. The frequency and intensity of extreme events associated with precipitation and air temperature have been increased in several regions of the planet in recent years. These changes produce serious impacts on human activities such as agriculture, health, urban planning and development and management of water resources. In this paper, we analyze the trends in indices of climatic extremes related to daily precipitation and maximum and minimum temperatures at 22 meteorological stations of the National Institute of Meteorology (INMET) in Rio de Janeiro State (Brazil) in the last 50 years. The present trends are evaluated using the software RClimdex (Canadian Meteorological Service) and are also subjected to statistical tests. Preliminary results indicate that periods of drought are getting longer in Rio de Janeiro State, except in the North/Northwest area. In "Vale do Paraíba", "Região Serrana" and "Região dos Lagos" the increase of consecutive dry days is statistically significant. However, we also detected an increase in the total annual rainfall all over the State (taxes varying from +2 to +8 mm/year), which are statistically significant at "Região Serrana". Moreover, the intensity of heavy rainfall is also growing in most of Rio de Janeiro, except in "Costa Verde". The trends of heavy rainfall indices show significant increase in the "Metropolitan Region" and in "Região Serrana", factor that increases the vulnerability to natural disasters in these areas. With respect to temperature, it is found that the frequency of hot (cold) days and nights is

  7. Extremely high Q-factor mechanical modes in quartz bulk acoustic wave resonators at millikelvin temperature

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Goryachev, M.; Creedon, D. L.; Ivanov, E. N.; Tobar, M. E. [ARC Centre of Excellence for Engineered Quantum Systems, University of Western Australia, 35 Stirling Highway, Crawley WA 6009 (Australia); Galliou, S.; Bourquin, R. [Department of Time and Frequency, FEMTO-ST Institute, ENSMM, 26 Chemin de l' Épitaphe, 25000, Besançon (France)

    2014-12-04

    We demonstrate that Bulk Acoustic Wave (BAW) quartz resonator cooled down to millikelvin temperatures are excellent building blocks for hybrid quantum systems with extremely long coherence times. Two overtones of the longitudinal mode at frequencies of 15.6 and 65.4 MHz demonstrate a maximum f.Q product of 7.8×10{sup 16} Hz. With this result, the Q-factor in such devices near the quantum ground state can be four orders of magnitude better than previously attained in other mechanical systems. Tested quartz resonators possess the ultra low acoustic losses crucial for electromagnetic cooling to the phonon ground state.

  8. Adjusted monthly temperature and precipitation values for Guinea Conakry (1941-2010) using HOMER.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aguilar, Enric; Aziz Barry, Abdoul; Mestre, Olivier

    2013-04-01

    Africa is a data sparse region and there are very few studies presenting homogenized monthly records. In this work, we introduce a dataset consisting of 12 stations spread over Guinea Conakry containing daily values of maximum and minimum temperature and accumulated rainfall for the period 1941-2010. The daily values have been quality controlled using R-Climdex routines, plus other interactive quality control applications, coded by the authors. After applying the different tests, more than 200 daily values were flagged as doubtful and carefully checked against the statistical distribution of the series and the rest of the dataset. Finally, 40 values were modified or set to missing and the rest were validated. The quality controlled daily dataset was used to produce monthly means and homogenized with HOMER, a new R-pacakge which includes the relative methods that performed better in the experiments conducted in the framework of the COST-HOME action. A total number of 38 inhomogeneities were found for temperature. As a total of 788 years of data were analyzed, the average ratio was one break every 20.7 years. The station with a larger number of inhomogeneities was Conakry (5 breaks) and one station, Kissidougou, was identified as homogeneous. The average number of breaks/station was 3.2. The mean value of the monthly factors applied to maximum (minimum) temperature was 0.17 °C (-1.08 °C) . For precipitation, due to the demand of a denser network to correctly homogenize this variable, only two major inhomogeneities in Conakry (1941-1961, -12%) and Kindia (1941-1976, -10%) were corrected. The adjusted dataset was used to compute regional series for the three variables and trends for the 1941-2010 period. The regional mean has been computed by simply averaging anomalies to 1971-2000 of the 12 time series. Two different versions have been obtained: a first one (A) makes use of the missing values interpolation made by HOMER (so all annual values in the regional series

  9. Temperature sensitivity of extreme precipitation events in the south-eastern Alpine forelands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schroeer, Katharina; Kirchengast, Gottfried

    2016-04-01

    How will convective precipitation intensities and patterns evolve in a warming climate on a regional to local scale? Studies on the scaling of precipitation intensities with temperature are used to test observational and climate model data against the hypothesis that the change of precipitation with temperature will essentially follow the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) equation, which corresponds to a rate of increase of the water holding capacity of the atmosphere by 6-7 % per Kelvin (CC rate). A growing number of studies in various regions and with varying approaches suggests that the overall picture of the temperature-precipitation relationship is heterogeneous, with scaling rates shearing off the CC rate in both upward and downward directions. In this study we investigate the temperature scaling of extreme precipitation events in the south-eastern Alpine forelands of Austria (SEA) based on a dense rain gauge net of 188 stations, with sub-daily precipitation measurements since about 1990 used at 10-min resolution. Parts of the study region are European hot-spots for severe hailstorms and the region, which is in part densely populated and intensively cultivated, is generally vulnerable to climate extremes. Evidence on historical extremely heavy short-time and localized precipitation events of several hundred mm of rain in just a few hours, resulting in destructive flash flooding, underline these vulnerabilities. Heavy precipitation is driven by Mediterranean moisture advection, enhanced by the orographic lifting at the Alpine foothills, and hence trends in positive sea surface temperature anomalies might carry significant risk of amplifying future extreme precipitation events. In addition, observations from the highly instrumented subregion of south-eastern Styria indicate a strong and robust long-term warming trend in summer of about 0.7°C per decade over 1971-2015, concomitant with a significant increase in the annual number of heat days. The combination of these

  10. European seasonal and annual temperature variability, trends, and extremes since 1500.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luterbacher, Jürg; Dietrich, Daniel; Xoplaki, Elena; Grosjean, Martin; Wanner, Heinz

    2004-03-05

    Multiproxy reconstructions of monthly and seasonal surface temperature fields for Europe back to 1500 show that the late 20th- and early 21st-century European climate is very likely (>95% confidence level) warmer than that of any time during the past 500 years. This agrees with findings for the entire Northern Hemisphere. European winter average temperatures during the period 1500 to 1900 were reduced by approximately 0.5 degrees C (0.25 degrees C for annual mean temperatures) compared to the 20th century. Summer temperatures did not experience systematic century-scale cooling relative to present conditions. The coldest European winter was 1708/1709; 2003 was by far the hottest summer.

  11. Comparing regional precipitation and temperature extremes in climate model and reanalysis products

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oliver Angélil

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available A growing field of research aims to characterise the contribution of anthropogenic emissions to the likelihood of extreme weather and climate events. These analyses can be sensitive to the shapes of the tails of simulated distributions. If tails are found to be unrealistically short or long, the anthropogenic signal emerges more or less clearly, respectively, from the noise of possible weather. Here we compare the chance of daily land-surface precipitation and near-surface temperature extremes generated by three Atmospheric Global Climate Models typically used for event attribution, with distributions from six reanalysis products. The likelihoods of extremes are compared for area-averages over grid cell and regional sized spatial domains. Results suggest a bias favouring overly strong attribution estimates for hot and cold events over many regions of Africa and Australia, and a bias favouring overly weak attribution estimates over regions of North America and Asia. For rainfall, results are more sensitive to geographic location. Although the three models show similar results over many regions, they do disagree over others. Equally, results highlight the discrepancy amongst reanalyses products. This emphasises the importance of using multiple reanalysis and/or observation products, as well as multiple models in event attribution studies.

  12. Effect of extreme temperatures on battery charging and performance of electric vehicles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindgren, Juuso; Lund, Peter D.

    2016-10-01

    Extreme temperatures pose several limitations to electric vehicle (EV) performance and charging. To investigate these effects, we combine a hybrid artificial neural network-empirical Li-ion battery model with a lumped capacitance EV thermal model to study how temperature will affect the performance of an EV fleet. We find that at -10 °C, the self-weighted mean battery charging power (SWMCP) decreases by 15% compared to standard 20 °C temperature. Active battery thermal management (BTM) during parking can improve SWMCP for individual vehicles, especially if vehicles are charged both at home and at workplace; the median SWMCP is increased by over 30%. Efficiency (km/kWh) of the vehicle fleet is maximized when ambient temperature is close to 20 °C. At low (-10 °C) and high (+40 °C) ambient temperatures, cabin preconditioning and BTM during parking can improve the median efficiency by 8% and 9%, respectively. At -10 °C, preconditioning and BTM during parking can also improve the fleet SOC by 3-6%-units, but this also introduces a ;base; load of around 140 W per vehicle. Finally, we observe that the utility of the fleet can be increased by 5%-units by adding 3.6 kW chargers to workplaces, but further improved charging infrastructure would bring little additional benefit.

  13. Simulation of temperature extremes in the Tibetan Plateau from CMIP5 models and comparison with gridded observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    You, Qinglong; Jiang, Zhihong; Wang, Dai; Pepin, Nick; Kang, Shichang

    2017-09-01

    Understanding changes in temperature extremes in a warmer climate is of great importance for society and for ecosystem functioning due to potentially severe impacts of such extreme events. In this study, temperature extremes defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) from CMIP5 models are evaluated by comparison with homogenized gridded observations at 0.5° resolution across the Tibetan Plateau (TP) for 1961-2005. Using statistical metrics, the models have been ranked in terms of their ability to reproduce similar patterns in extreme events to the observations. Four CMIP5 models have good performance (BNU-ESM, HadGEM2-ES, CCSM4, CanESM2) and are used to create an optimal model ensemble (OME). Most temperature extreme indices in the OME are closer to the observations than in an ensemble using all models. Best performance is given for threshold temperature indices and extreme/absolute value indices are slightly less well modelled. Thus the choice of model in the OME seems to have more influences on temperature extreme indices based on thresholds. There is no significant correlation between elevation and modelled bias of the extreme indices for both the optimal/all model ensembles. Furthermore, the minimum temperature (Tmin) is significanlty positive correlations with the longwave radiation and cloud variables, respectively, but the Tmax fails to find the correlation with the shortwave radiation and cloud variables. This suggests that the cloud-radiation differences influence the Tmin in each CMIP5 model to some extent, and result in the temperature extremes based on Tmin.

  14. Extreme Temperatures and Health in Spain in a Context of Climate Change: Some Lines of Research

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristina Linares

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The heat wave that occurred in Europe in the summer of 2003 led health authorities to develop Prevention Plans to minimize the impacts of heat waves on citizens´ health. Spain developed, based on existing research, a High Temperature Prevention Plan, which was in force until 2015, when it was updated. This paper summarizes studies carried out in our country that led to the updating of this Plan. We also analyze some studies conducted in Spain regarding cold waves and their attributable mortality; the temporal evolution of heat impacts according to age groups; the detection of specially susceptible groups; the geographic variability of the health effects of heat waves and their applicability to the improvement of Prevention Plans; and future lines of research in the field of extreme temperatures and their impact on health.

  15. In-Situ Acoustic Measurements of Temperature Profile in Extreme Environments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Skliar, Mikhail [Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT (United States)

    2015-03-31

    A gasifier’s temperature is the primary characteristic that must be monitored to ensure its performance and the longevity of its refractory. One of the key technological challenges impacting the reliability and economics of coal and biomass gasification is the lack of temperature sensors that are capable of providing accurate, reliable, and long-life performance in an extreme gasification environment. This research has proposed, demonstrated, and validated a novel approach that uses a noninvasive ultrasound method that provides real-time temperature distribution monitoring across the refractory, especially the hot face temperature of the refractory. The essential idea of the ultrasound measurements of segmental temperature distribution is to use an ultrasound propagation waveguide across a refractory that has been engineered to contain multiple internal partial reflectors at known locations. When an ultrasound excitation pulse is introduced on the cold side of the refractory, it will be partially reflected from each scatterer in the US propagation path in the refractory wall and returned to the receiver as a train of partial echoes. The temperature in the corresponding segment can be determined based on recorded ultrasonic waveform and experimentally defined relationship between the speed of sound and temperature. The ultrasound measurement method offers a powerful solution to provide continuous real time temperature monitoring for the occasions that conventional thermal, optical and other sensors are infeasible, such as the impossibility of insertion of temperature sensor, harsh environment, unavailable optical path, and more. Our developed ultrasound system consists of an ultrasound engineered waveguide, ultrasound transducer/receiver, and data acquisition, logging, interpretation, and online display system, which is simple to install on the existing units with minimal modification on the gasifier or use with new units. This system has been successfully tested

  16. Regarding the perturbed operating process of DB propellant rocket motor at extreme initial grain temperatures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ioan ION

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Despite many decades of study, the combustion instability of several DB propellants is still of particular concern, especially at extreme grain temperature conditions of rocket motor operating. The purpose of the first part of the paper is to give an overview of our main experimental results on combustion instabilities and pressure oscillations in DB propellant segmented grain rocket motors (SPRM-01, large L/D ratio, working at extreme initial grain temperatures. Thus, we recorded some particular pressure-time traces with significant perturbed pressure signal that was FFT analysed. An updated mathematical model incorporating transient frequency-dependent combustion response, in conjunction with pressure-dependent burning, is applied to investigate and predict the DB propellant combustion instability phenomenon. The susceptibility of the tested motor SPRM-01 with DB propellant to get a perturbed working and to go unstable with pressure was evidenced and this risk has to be evaluated. In the last part of our paper we evaluated the influence of recorded perturbed thrust on the rocket behaviour on the trajectory. The study revealed that at firing-table initial conditions, this kind of perturbed motor operating may not lead to an unstable rocket flight, but the ballistic parameters would be influenced in an unacceptable manner.

  17. Decoupling of microbial carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus cycling in response to extreme temperature events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mooshammer, Maria; Hofhansl, Florian; Frank, Alexander H.; Wanek, Wolfgang; Hämmerle, Ieda; Leitner, Sonja; Schnecker, Jörg; Wild, Birgit; Watzka, Margarete; Keiblinger, Katharina M.; Zechmeister-Boltenstern, Sophie; Richter, Andreas

    2017-01-01

    Predicted changes in the intensity and frequency of climate extremes urge a better mechanistic understanding of the stress response of microbially mediated carbon (C) and nutrient cycling processes. We analyzed the resistance and resilience of microbial C, nitrogen (N), and phosphorus (P) cycling processes and microbial community composition in decomposing plant litter to transient, but severe, temperature disturbances, namely, freeze-thaw and heat. Disturbances led temporarily to a more rapid cycling of C and N but caused a down-regulation of P cycling. In contrast to the fast recovery of the initially stimulated C and N processes, we found a slow recovery of P mineralization rates, which was not accompanied by significant changes in community composition. The functional and structural responses to the two distinct temperature disturbances were markedly similar, suggesting that direct negative physical effects and costs associated with the stress response were comparable. Moreover, the stress response of extracellular enzyme activities, but not that of intracellular microbial processes (for example, respiration or N mineralization), was dependent on the nutrient content of the resource through its effect on microbial physiology and community composition. Our laboratory study provides novel insights into the mechanisms of microbial functional stress responses that can serve as a basis for field studies and, in particular, illustrates the need for a closer integration of microbial C-N-P interactions into climate extremes research. PMID:28508070

  18. The oxidation behavior of classical thermal barrier coatings exposed to extreme temperature

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alina DRAGOMIRESCU

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Thermal barrier coatings (TBC are designed to protect metal surfaces from extreme temperatures and improve their resistance to oxidation during service. Currently, the most commonly used systems are those that have the TBC structure bond coat (BC / top coat (TC layers. The top coat layer is a ceramic layer. Oxidation tests are designed to identify the dynamics of the thermally oxide layer (TGO growth at the interface of bond coat / top coat layers, delamination mechanism and the TBC structural changes induced by thermal conditions. This paper is a short study on the evolution of aluminum oxide protective layer along with prolonged exposure to the testing temperature. There have been tested rectangular specimens of metal super alloy with four surfaces coated with a duplex thermal barrier coating system. The specimens were microscopically and EDAX analyzed before and after the tests. In order to determine the oxide type, the samples were analyzed using X-ray diffraction. The results of the investigation are encouraging for future studies. The results show a direct relationship between the development of the oxide layer and long exposure to the test temperature. Future research will focus on changing the testing temperature to compare the results.

  19. USING HINODE/EXTREME-ULTRAVIOLET IMAGING SPECTROMETER TO CONFIRM A SEISMOLOGICALLY INFERRED CORONAL TEMPERATURE

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marsh, M. S.; Walsh, R. W.

    2009-01-01

    The Extreme-Ultraviolet Imaging Spectrometer on board the HINODE satellite is used to examine the loop system described in Marsh et al. by applying spectroscopic diagnostic methods. A simple isothermal mapping algorithm is applied to determine where the assumption of isothermal plasma may be valid, and the emission measure locii technique is used to determine the temperature profile along the base of the loop system. It is found that, along the base, the loop has a uniform temperature profile with a mean temperature of 0.89 ± 0.09 MK which is in agreement with the temperature determined seismologically in Marsh et al., using observations interpreted as the slow magnetoacoustic mode. The results further strengthen the slow mode interpretation, propagation at a uniform sound speed, and the analysis method applied in Marsh et al. It is found that it is not possible to discriminate between the slow mode phase speed and the sound speed within the precision of the present observations.

  20. Influence of land-atmosphere feedbacks on temperature and precipitation extremes in the GLACE-CMIP5 ensemble

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lorenz, Ruth; Argueso, Daniel; Donat, Markus G.; Pitman, Andrew J.; van den Hurk, Bart; Berg, Alexis; Lawrence, David M.; Cheruy, Frederique; Ducharne, Agnes; Hagemann, Stefan; Meier, Arndt; Milly, Paul C.D.; Seneviratne, Sonia I

    2016-01-01

    We examine how soil moisture variability and trends affect the simulation of temperature and precipitation extremes in six global climate models using the experimental protocol of the Global Land-Atmosphere Coupling Experiment of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (GLACE-CMIP5). This protocol enables separate examinations of the influences of soil moisture variability and trends on the intensity, frequency, and duration of climate extremes by the end of the 21st century under a business-as-usual (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) emission scenario. Removing soil moisture variability significantly reduces temperature extremes over most continental surfaces, while wet precipitation extremes are enhanced in the tropics. Projected drying trends in soil moisture lead to increases in intensity, frequency, and duration of temperature extremes by the end of the 21st century. Wet precipitation extremes are decreased in the tropics with soil moisture trends in the simulations, while dry extremes are enhanced in some regions, in particular the Mediterranean and Australia. However, the ensemble results mask considerable differences in the soil moisture trends simulated by the six climate models. We find that the large differences between the models in soil moisture trends, which are related to an unknown combination of differences in atmospheric forcing (precipitation, net radiation), flux partitioning at the land surface, and how soil moisture is parameterized, imply considerable uncertainty in future changes in climate extremes.

  1. Manipulation of Samples at Extreme Temperatures for Fast in-situ Synchrotron Measurements

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Weber, Richard [Materials Development, Inc., Arlington Heights, IL (United States)

    2016-04-22

    An aerodynamic sample levitation system with laser beam heating was integrated with the APS beamlines 6 ID-D, 11 ID-C and 20 BM-B. The new capability enables in-situ measurements of structure and XANES at extreme temperatures (300-3500 °C) and in conditions that completely avoid contact with container surfaces. In addition to maintaining a high degree of sample purity, the use of aerodynamic levitation enables deep supercooling and greatly enhanced glass formation from a wide variety of melts and liquids. Development and integration of controlled extreme sample environments and new measurement techniques is an important aspect of beamline operations and user support. Processing and solidifying liquids is a critical value-adding step in manufacturing semiconductors, optical materials, metals and in the operation of many energy conversion devices. Understanding structural evolution is of fundamental importance in condensed materials, geology, and biology. The new capability provides unique possibilities for materials research and helps to develop and maintain a competitive materials manufacturing and energy utilization industry. Test samples were used to demonstrate key features of the capability including experiments on hot crystalline materials, liquids at temperatures from about 500 to 3500 °C. The use of controlled atmospheres using redox gas mixtures enabled in-situ changes in the oxidation states of cations in melts. Significant innovations in this work were: (i) Use of redox gas mixtures to adjust the oxidation state of cations in-situ (ii) Operation with a fully enclosed system suitable for work with nuclear fuel materials (iii) Making high quality high energy in-situ x-ray diffraction measurements (iv) Making high quality in-situ XANES measurements (v) Publishing high impact results (vi) Developing independent funding for the research on nuclear materials This SBIR project work led to a commercial instrument product for the niche market of processing and

  2. Mean and extreme temperatures in a warming climate: EURO CORDEX and WRF regional climate high-resolution projections for Portugal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cardoso, Rita M.; Soares, Pedro M. M.; Lima, Daniela C. A.; Miranda, Pedro M. A.

    2018-02-01

    Large temperature spatio-temporal gradients are a common feature of Mediterranean climates. The Portuguese complex topography and coastlines enhances such features, and in a small region large temperature gradients with high interannual variability is detected. In this study, the EURO-CORDEX high-resolution regional climate simulations (0.11° and 0.44° resolutions) are used to investigate the maximum and minimum temperature projections across the twenty-first century according to RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. An additional WRF simulation with even higher resolution (9 km) for RCP8.5 scenario is also examined. All simulations for the historical period (1971-2000) are evaluated against the available station observations and the EURO-CORDEX model results are ranked in order to build multi-model ensembles. In present climate models are able to reproduce the main topography/coast related temperature gradients. Although there are discernible differences between models, most present a cold bias. The multi-model ensembles improve the overall representation of the temperature. The ensembles project a significant increase of the maximum and minimum temperatures in all seasons and scenarios. Maximum increments of 8 °C in summer and autumn and between 2 and 4 °C in winter and spring are projected in RCP8.5. The temperature distributions for all models show a significant increase in the upper tails of the PDFs. In RCP8.5 more than half of the extended summer (MJJAS) has maximum temperatures exceeding the historical 90th percentile and, on average, 60 tropical nights are projected for the end of the century, whilst there are only 7 tropical nights in the historical period. Conversely, the number of cold days almost disappears. The yearly average number of heat waves increases by seven to ninefold by 2100 and the most frequent length rises from 5 to 22 days throughout the twenty-first century. 5% of the longest events will last for more than one month. The amplitude is overwhelming

  3. United States Historical Climatology Network (US HCN) monthly temperature and precipitation data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Daniels, R.C. [ed.] [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States). Energy, Environment and Resources Center; Boden, T.A. [ed.] [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States); Easterling, D.R.; Karl, T.R.; Mason, E.H.; Hughes, P.Y.; Bowman, D.P. [National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, NC (United States)

    1996-01-11

    This document describes a database containing monthly temperature and precipitation data for 1221 stations in the contiguous United States. This network of stations, known as the United States Historical Climatology Network (US HCN), and the resulting database were compiled by the National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, North Carolina. These data represent the best available data from the United States for analyzing long-term climate trends on a regional scale. The data for most stations extend through December 31, 1994, and a majority of the station records are serially complete for at least 80 years. Unlike many data sets that have been used in past climate studies, these data have been adjusted to remove biases introduced by station moves, instrument changes, time-of-observation differences, and urbanization effects. These monthly data are available free of charge as a numeric data package (NDP) from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center. The NDP includes this document and 27 machine-readable data files consisting of supporting data files, a descriptive file, and computer access codes. This document describes how the stations in the US HCN were selected and how the data were processed, defines limitations and restrictions of the data, describes the format and contents of the magnetic media, and provides reprints of literature that discuss the editing and adjustment techniques used in the US HCN.

  4. Growing season temperature and precipitation variability and extremes in the U.S. Corn Belt from 1981 to 2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dai, S.; Shulski, M.

    2013-12-01

    Climate warming and changes in rainfall patterns and increases in extreme events are resulting in higher risks of crop failures. A greater sense of urgency has been induced to understand the impacts of past climate on crop production in the U.S. As one of the most predominant sources of feed grains, corn is also the main source of U.S. ethanol. In the U.S. Corn Belt, region-scale evaluation on temperature and precipitation variability and extremes during the growing season is not well-documented yet. This study is part of the USDA-funded project 'Useful to Usable: Transforming climate variability and change information for cereal crop producers'. The overall goal of our work is to study the characteristics of average growing season conditions and changes in growing season temperature- and precipitation-based indices that are closely correlated with corn grain yield in the U.S. Corn Belt. The research area is the twelve major Corn Belt states, including IL, IN, IA, KS, MI, MN, MO, NE, OH, SD, ND, and WI. Climate data during 1981-2010 from 132 meteorological stations (elevation ranges from 122 m to 1,202 m) are used in this study, including daily minimum, maximum, and mean temperature, and daily precipitation. From 1981 to 2012, beginning date (BD), ending date (ED), and growing season length (GSL) in the climatological corn growing season are studied. Especially, during the agronomic corn growing season, from Apr to Oct, temperature- and precipitation-based indices are analyzed. The temperature-based indices include: number of days with daily mean temperature below 10°C, number of days with daily mean temperature above 30°C, the sum of growing degree days (GDD) between 10°C to 30°C (GDD10,30, growth range for corn), the sum of growing degree days above 30°C (GDD30+, exposure to harmful warming for corn), the sum of growing degree days between 0°C and 44°C (GDD0,44, survival range limits for corn), the sum of growing degree days between 5°C and 35°C (GDD5

  5. Large-Scale Atmospheric Circulation Patterns Associated with Temperature Extremes as a Basis for Model Evaluation: Methodological Overview and Results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loikith, P. C.; Broccoli, A. J.; Waliser, D. E.; Lintner, B. R.; Neelin, J. D.

    2015-12-01

    Anomalous large-scale circulation patterns often play a key role in the occurrence of temperature extremes. For example, large-scale circulation can drive horizontal temperature advection or influence local processes that lead to extreme temperatures, such as by inhibiting moderating sea breezes, promoting downslope adiabatic warming, and affecting the development of cloud cover. Additionally, large-scale circulation can influence the shape of temperature distribution tails, with important implications for the magnitude of future changes in extremes. As a result of the prominent role these patterns play in the occurrence and character of extremes, the way in which temperature extremes change in the future will be highly influenced by if and how these patterns change. It is therefore critical to identify and understand the key patterns associated with extremes at local to regional scales in the current climate and to use this foundation as a target for climate model validation. This presentation provides an overview of recent and ongoing work aimed at developing and applying novel approaches to identifying and describing the large-scale circulation patterns associated with temperature extremes in observations and using this foundation to evaluate state-of-the-art global and regional climate models. Emphasis is given to anomalies in sea level pressure and 500 hPa geopotential height over North America using several methods to identify circulation patterns, including self-organizing maps and composite analysis. Overall, evaluation results suggest that models are able to reproduce observed patterns associated with temperature extremes with reasonable fidelity in many cases. Model skill is often highest when and where synoptic-scale processes are the dominant mechanisms for extremes, and lower where sub-grid scale processes (such as those related to topography) are important. Where model skill in reproducing these patterns is high, it can be inferred that extremes are

  6. Coldest Temperature Extreme Monotonically Increased and Hottest Extreme Oscillated over Northern Hemisphere Land during Last 114 Years

    OpenAIRE

    Chunlüe Zhou; Kaicun Wang

    2016-01-01

    Most studies on global warming rely on global mean surface temperature, whose change is jointly determined by anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs) and natural variability. This introduces a heated debate on whether there is a recent warming hiatus and what caused the hiatus. Here, we presented a novel method and applied it to a 5????5? grid of Northern Hemisphere land for the period 1900 to 2013. Our results show that the coldest 5% of minimum temperature anomalies (the coldest deviation) ha...

  7. Computing the distribution of return levels of extreme warm temperatures for future climate projections

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pausader, M.; Parey, S.; Nogaj, M. [EDF/R and D, Chatou Cedex (France); Bernie, D. [Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter (United Kingdom)

    2012-03-15

    In order to take into account uncertainties in the future climate projections there is a growing demand for probabilistic projections of climate change. This paper presents a methodology for producing such a probabilistic analysis of future temperature extremes. The 20- and 100-years return levels are obtained from that of the normalized variable and the changes in mean and standard deviation given by climate models for the desired future periods. Uncertainty in future change of these extremes is quantified using a multi-model ensemble and a perturbed physics ensemble. The probability density functions of future return levels are computed at a representative location from the joint probability distribution of mean and standard deviation changes given by the two combined ensembles of models. For the studied location, the 100-years return level at the end of the century is lower than 41 C with an 80% confidence. Then, as the number of model simulations is low to compute a reliable distribution, two techniques proposed in the literature (local pattern scaling and ANOVA) have been used to infer the changes in mean and standard deviation for the combinations of RCM and GCM which have not been run. The ANOVA technique leads to better results for the reconstruction of the mean changes, whereas the two methods fail to correctly infer the changes in standard deviation. As standard deviation change has a major impact on return level change, there is a need to improve the models and the different techniques regarding the variance changes. (orig.)

  8. The course of health status and (health-related) quality of life following fracture of the lower extremity: a 6-month follow-up study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Son, M A C; De Vries, J; Roukema, J A; Gosens, T; Verhofstad, M H J; Den Oudsten, B L

    2016-05-01

    The aim of this prospective study was to describe the course of health status (HS), health-related quality of life, and quality of life (QOL) in patients with lower extremity fractures (LEF) up to 6 months post-fracture. Patients (n = 171; age range 18-100 years) completed the World Health Organization Quality of Life assessment instrument-Bref (WHOQOL-Bref) and the Short Musculoskeletal Function Assessment questionnaire (SMFA) at time of diagnosis (i.e., pre-injury status), 1 week, and 6 months post-fracture. Linear mixed modeling was performed. Interaction effects of time with treatment were detected for the WHOQOL-Bref facet Overall QOL and General health (p = .002) and Physical health (p = .003). Patients did not return to their pre-injury Physical health, Psychological health, and Environment 6 months post-fracture (p choice of the questionnaire influences the derived conclusions. LEF did not affect satisfaction with social relationships.

  9. Monthly Composite Raster Images for Sea Surface Temperature in the Gulf of Maine for Stellwagen Bank NMS

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This personal geodatabase contains raster images of sea surface temperature (SST) in the Gulf of Maine. These raster images are monthly composites, and were...

  10. GOZCARDS Source Data for Temperature Monthly Zonal Averages on a Geodetic Latitude and Pressure Grid V1.00

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The GOZCARDS Source Data for Temperature Monthly Zonal Averages on a Geodetic Latitude and Pressure Grid product (GozSmlpT) contains zonal means and related...

  11. Trends and variability of daily temperature extremes during 1960-2012 in the Yangtze River Basin, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    The variability of temperature extremes has been the focus of attention during the past few decades, and may exert a great influence on the global hydrologic cycle and energy balance through thermal forcing. Based on daily minimum and maximum temperature observed by the China Meteorological Administ...

  12. Retrospectively reported month-to-month variation in sleeping problems of people naturally exposed to high-amplitude annual variation in daylength and/or temperature

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arcady A. Putilov

    Full Text Available Compared to literature on seasonal variation in mood and well-being, reports on seasonality of trouble sleeping are scarce and contradictive. To extend geography of such reports on example of people naturally exposed to high-amplitude annual variation in daylength and/or temperature. Participants were the residents of Turkmenia, West Siberia, South and North Yakutia, Chukotka, and Alaska. Health and sleep-wake adaptabilities, month-to-month variation in sleeping problems, well-being and behaviors were self-assessed. More than a half of 2398 respondents acknowledged seasonality of sleeping problems. Four of the assessed sleeping problems demonstrated three different patterns of seasonal variation. Rate of the problems significantly increased in winter months with long nights and cold days (daytime sleepiness and difficulties falling and staying asleep as well as in summer months with either long days (premature awakening and difficulties falling and staying asleep or hot nights and days (all 4 sleeping problems. Individual differences between respondents in pattern and level of seasonality of sleeping problems were significantly associated with differences in several other domains of individual variation, such as gender, age, ethnicity, physical health, morning-evening preference, sleep quality, and adaptability of the sleep-wake cycle. These results have practical relevance to understanding of the roles playing by natural environmental factors in seasonality of sleeping problems as well as to research on prevalence of sleep disorders and methods of their prevention and treatment in regions with large seasonal differences in temperature and daylength.

  13. Evaluation of COTS SiGe, SOI, and Mixed Signal Electronic Parts for Extreme Temperature Use in NASA Missions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patterson, Richard L.; Hammoud, Ahmad

    2010-01-01

    The NASA Electronic Parts and Packaging (NEPP) Program sponsors a task at the NASA Glenn Research Center titled "Reliability of SiGe, SOI, and Advanced Mixed Signal Devices for Cryogenic Space Missions." In this task COTS parts and flight-like are evaluated by determining their performance under extreme temperatures and thermal cycling. The results from the evaluations are published on the NEPP website and at professional conferences in order to disseminate information to mission planners and system designers. This presentation discusses the task and the 2010 highlights and technical results. Topics include extreme temperature operation of SiGe and SOI devices, all-silicon oscillators, a floating gate voltage reference, a MEMS oscillator, extreme temperature resistors and capacitors, and a high temperature silicon operational amplifier.

  14. Monthly variations of dew point temperature in the coterminous United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, Peter J.

    1998-11-01

    The dew point temperature, Td, data from the surface airways data set of the U.S. National Climatic Data Center were used to develop a basic dew point climatology for the coterminous United States. Quality control procedures were an integral part of the analysis. Daily Td, derived as the average of eight observations at 3-hourly intervals, for 222 stations for the 1961-1990 period were used. The annual and seasonal pattern of average values showed a clear south-north decrease in the eastern portion of the nation, a trend which was most marked in winter. In the west, values decreased inland from the Pacific Coast. Inter-annual variability was generally low when actual mean values were high. A cluster analysis suggested that the area could be divided into six regions, two oriented north-south in the west, four aligned east-west in the area east of the Rocky Mountains. Day-to-day variability was low in all seasons in the two western clusters, but showed a distinct winter maximum in the east. This was explained in broad terms by consideration of air flow regimes, with the Pacific Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico acting as the major moisture sources. Comparison of values for pairs of nearby stations suggested that Td was rather insensitive to local moisture sources. Analysis of the patterns of occurrence of dew points exceeding the 95th percentile threshold indicated that extremes in summer tend to be localized and short-lived, while in winter they are more widespread and persistent.

  15. Hemorrhagic gianotti-crosti syndrome in a one and half month old infant: An extremely unusual presentation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nilendu Sarma

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Gianotti-Crosti syndrome is parainfectious exanthematous disease having unique presentation of small papulovesicular eruptions symmetrically over extensor surface of limbs and face in children. Hemorrhagic lesions are very rare and are always localized. Here, a case of EBV-induced Gianotti-Crosti syndrome with extensive hemorrhagic vesicles in a one and half month old infant, possibly induced by Epstein Barr virus, is reported. Neither the involvement of the disease at this early age nor the extensive hemorrhagic vesicles as the predominant presentation is reported before.

  16. Short-term cropland responses to temperature extreme events during late winter

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Simon, G.; Alberti, G.; Delle Vedove, G.; Peressotti, A.; Zaldei, A.; Miglietta, F.

    2013-08-01

    In recent years, several studies have focused on terrestrial ecosystem response to extreme events. Most of this research has been conducted in natural ecosystems, but few have considered agroecosystems. In this study, we investigated the impact of a manipulated warmer or cooler late winter/early spring on the carbon budget and final harvest of a soybean crop (Glycine max (L.) Merr.). Soil temperature was altered by manipulating soil albedo by covering the soil surface with a layer of inert silica gravel. We tested three treatments - cooling (Co), warming (W), mix (M) - and control (C). An automated system continuously measured soil heterotrophic respiration (Rh), soil temperature profiles, and soil water content across the entire year in each plot. Phenological phases were periodically assessed and final harvest was measured in each plot. Results showed that treatments had only a transient effect on daily Rh rates, which did not result in a total annual carbon budget significantly different from control, even though cooling showed a significant reduction in final harvest. We also observed anticipation in emergence in both W and M treatments and a delay in emergence for Co. Moreover, plant density and growth increased in W and M and decreased in Co. In conclusion, from the results of our experiment we can assert that an increase in the frequency of both heat and cold waves is unlikely to have large effects on the overall annual carbon balance of irrigated croplands.

  17. Extreme Temperature Regimes during the Cool Season and their Associated Large-Scale Circulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Z.

    2015-12-01

    In the cool season (November-March), extreme temperature events (ETEs) always hit the continental United States (US) and provide significant societal impacts. According to the anomalous amplitudes of the surface air temperature (SAT), there are two typical types of ETEs, e.g. cold waves (CWs) and warm waves (WWs). This study used cluster analysis to categorize both CWs and WWs into four distinct regimes respectively and investigated their associated large-scale circulations on intra-seasonal time scale. Most of the CW regimes have large areal impact over the continental US. However, the distribution of cold SAT anomalies varies apparently in four regimes. In the sea level, the four CW regimes are characterized by anomalous high pressure over North America (near and to west of cold anomaly) with different extension and orientation. As a result, anomalous northerlies along east flank of anomalous high pressure convey cold air into the continental US. To the middle troposphere, the leading two groups feature large-scale and zonally-elongated circulation anomaly pattern, while the other two regimes exhibit synoptic wavetrain pattern with meridionally elongated features. As for the WW regimes, there are some patterns symmetry and anti-symmetry with respect to CW regimes. The WW regimes are characterized by anomalous low pressure and southerlies wind over North America. The first and fourth groups are affected by remote forcing emanating from North Pacific, while the others appear mainly locally forced.

  18. The global historical climatology network: Long-term monthly temperature, precipitation, and pressure data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vose, R.S.; Schmoyer, R.L.; Peterson, T.C.; Steurer, P.M.; Heim, R.R. Jr.; Karl, T.R.; Eischeid, J.K.

    1992-01-01

    Interest in global climate change has risen dramatically during the past several decades. In a similar fashion, the number of data sets available to study global change has also increased. Unfortunately, many different organizations and researchers have compiled these data sets, making it confusing and time consuming for individuals to acquire the most comprehensive data. In response to this rapid growth in the number of global data sets, DOE's Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) and NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) established the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) project. The purpose of this project is to compile an improved data set of long-term monthly mean temperature, precipitation, sea level pressure, and station pressure for as dense a network of global stations as possible. Specifically, the GHCN project seeks to consolidate the numerous preexisting national-, regional-, and global-scale data sets into a single global data base; to subject the data to rigorous quality control; and to update, enhance, and distribute the data set at regular intervals. The purpose of this paper is to describe the compilation and contents of the GHCN data base (i.e., GHCN Version 1.0)

  19. Comparison of ArcGIS and SAS Geostatistical Analyst to Estimate Population-Weighted Monthly Temperature for US Counties.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiaopeng, Q I; Liang, Wei; Barker, Laurie; Lekiachvili, Akaki; Xingyou, Zhang

    Temperature changes are known to have significant impacts on human health. Accurate estimates of population-weighted average monthly air temperature for US counties are needed to evaluate temperature's association with health behaviours and disease, which are sampled or reported at the county level and measured on a monthly-or 30-day-basis. Most reported temperature estimates were calculated using ArcGIS, relatively few used SAS. We compared the performance of geostatistical models to estimate population-weighted average temperature in each month for counties in 48 states using ArcGIS v9.3 and SAS v 9.2 on a CITGO platform. Monthly average temperature for Jan-Dec 2007 and elevation from 5435 weather stations were used to estimate the temperature at county population centroids. County estimates were produced with elevation as a covariate. Performance of models was assessed by comparing adjusted R 2 , mean squared error, root mean squared error, and processing time. Prediction accuracy for split validation was above 90% for 11 months in ArcGIS and all 12 months in SAS. Cokriging in SAS achieved higher prediction accuracy and lower estimation bias as compared to cokriging in ArcGIS. County-level estimates produced by both packages were positively correlated (adjusted R 2 range=0.95 to 0.99); accuracy and precision improved with elevation as a covariate. Both methods from ArcGIS and SAS are reliable for U.S. county-level temperature estimates; However, ArcGIS's merits in spatial data pre-processing and processing time may be important considerations for software selection, especially for multi-year or multi-state projects.

  20. Performance of an SOI Boot-Strapped Full-Bridge MOSFET Driver, Type CHT-FBDR, under Extreme Temperatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patterson, Richard; Hammoud, Ahmad

    2009-01-01

    Electronic systems designed for use in deep space and planetary exploration missions are expected to encounter extreme temperatures and wide thermal swings. Silicon-based devices are limited in their wide-temperature capability and usually require extra measures, such as cooling or heating mechanisms, to provide adequate ambient temperature for proper operation. Silicon-On-Insulator (SOI) technology, on the other hand, lately has been gaining wide spread use in applications where high temperatures are encountered. Due to their inherent design, SOI-based integrated circuit chips are able to operate at temperatures higher than those of the silicon devices by virtue of reducing leakage currents, eliminating parasitic junctions, and limiting internal heating. In addition, SOI devices provide faster switching, consume less power, and offer improved radiation-tolerance. Very little data, however, exist on the performance of such devices and circuits under cryogenic temperatures. In this work, the performance of an SOI bootstrapped, full-bridge driver integrated circuit was evaluated under extreme temperatures and thermal cycling. The investigations were carried out to establish a baseline on the functionality and to determine suitability of this device for use in space exploration missions under extreme temperature conditions.

  1. Evolution of extreme temperature events in short term climate projection for Iberian Peninsula.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez, Alfredo; Tarquis, Ana M.; Sanchez, Enrique; Dosio, Alessandro; Ruiz-Ramos, Margarita

    2014-05-01

    Extreme events of maximum and minimum temperatures are a main hazard for agricultural production in Iberian Peninsula. For this purpose, in this study we analyze projections of their evolution that could be valid for the next decade, represented in this study by the 30-year period 2004-2034 (target period). For this purpose two kinds of data were used in this study: 1) observations from the station network of AEMET (Spanish National Meteorological Agency) for five Spanish locations, and 2) simulated data at a resolution of 50 ×50 km horizontal grid derived from the outputs of twelve Regional Climate Models (RCMs) taken from project ENSEMBLES (van der Linden and Mitchell, 2009), with a bias correction (Dosio and Paruolo, 2011; Dosio et al., 2012) regarding the observational dataset Spain02 (Herrera et al., 2012). To validate the simulated climate, the available period of observations was compared to a baseline period (1964-1994) of simulated climate for all locations. Then, to analyze the changes for the present/very next future, probability of extreme temperature events for 2004-2034 were compared to that of the baseline period. Although only minor changes are expected, small variations in variability may have a significant impact in crop performance. The objective of the work is to evaluate the utility of these short term projections for potential users, as for instance insurance companies. References Dosio A. and Paruolo P., 2011. Bias correction of the ENSEMBLES high-resolution climate change projections for use by impact models: Evaluation on the present climate. Journal of Geophysical Research, VOL. 116,D16106, doi:10.1029/2011JD015934 Dosio A., Paruolo P. and Rojas R., 2012. Bias correction of the ENSEMBLES high resolution climate change projections for use by impact models: Analysis of the climate change signal. Journal of Geophysical Research,Volume 117, D17, doi: 0.1029/2012JD017968 Herrera et. al. (2012) Development and Analysis of a 50 year high

  2. Assessment of ENSEMBLES regional climate models for the representation of monthly wind characteristics in the Aegean Sea (Greece): Mean and extremes analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anagnostopoulou, Christina; Tolika, Konstantia; Tegoulias, Ioannis; Velikou, Kondylia; Vagenas, Christos

    2013-04-01

    The main scope of the present study is the assessment of the ability of three of the most updated regional climate models, developed under the frame of the European research project ENSEMBLES (http://www.ensembles-eu.org/), to simulate the wind characteristics in the Aegean Sea in Greece. The examined models are KNMI-RACMO2, MPI-MREMO, and ICTP - RegCM3. They all have the same spatial resolution (25x25km) and for their future projections they are using the A1B SRES emission scenarios. Their simulated wind data (speed and direction) were compared with observational data from several stations over the domain of study for a time period of 25 years, from 1980 to 2004 on a monthly basis. The primer data were available every three or six hours from which we computed the mean daily wind speed and the prevailing daily wind direction. It should be mentioned, that the comparison was made for the grid point that was the closest to each station over land. Moreover, the extreme speed values were also calculated both for the observational and the simulated data, in order to assess the ability of the models in capturing the most intense wind conditions. The first results of the study showed that the prevailing winds during the winter and spring months have a north - northeastern or a south - south western direction in most parts of the Aegean sea. The models under examination seem to capture quite satisfactorily this pattern as well as the general characteristics of the winds in this area. During summer, winds in the Aegean Sea have mainly north direction and the models have quite good agreement both in simulating this direction and the wind speed. Concerning the extreme wind speed (percentiles) it was found that for the stations in the northern Aegean all the models overestimate the extreme wind indices. For the eastern parts of the Aegean the KNMI and the MPI model underestimate the extreme wind speeds while on the other hand the ICTP model overestimates them. Finally for the

  3. Choice of optimal working fluid for binary power plants at extremely low temperature brine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tomarov, G. V.; Shipkov, A. A.; Sorokina, E. V.

    2016-12-01

    The geothermal energy development problems based on using binary power plants utilizing lowpotential geothermal resources are considered. It is shown that one of the possible ways of increasing the efficiency of heat utilization of geothermal brine in a wide temperature range is the use of multistage power systems with series-connected binary power plants based on incremental primary energy conversion. Some practically significant results of design-analytical investigations of physicochemical properties of various organic substances and their influence on the main parameters of the flowsheet and the technical and operational characteristics of heat-mechanical and heat-exchange equipment for binary power plant operating on extremely-low temperature geothermal brine (70°C) are presented. The calculation results of geothermal brine specific flow rate, capacity (net), and other operation characteristics of binary power plants with the capacity of 2.5 MW at using various organic substances are a practical interest. It is shown that the working fluid selection significantly influences on the parameters of the flowsheet and the operational characteristics of the binary power plant, and the problem of selection of working fluid is in the search for compromise based on the priorities in the field of efficiency, safety, and ecology criteria of a binary power plant. It is proposed in the investigations on the working fluid selection of the binary plant to use the plotting method of multiaxis complex diagrams of relative parameters and characteristic of binary power plants. Some examples of plotting and analyzing these diagrams intended to choose the working fluid provided that the efficiency of geothermal brine is taken as main priority.

  4. Compound extremes of summer temperature and precipitation leading to intensified departures from natural variability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahony, C. R.; Cannon, A. J.

    2017-12-01

    Climate change can drive local climates outside the range of their historical year-to-year variability, straining the adaptive capacity of ecological and human communities. We demonstrate that interactions between climate variables can produce larger and earlier departures from natural variability than is detectable in individual variables. For example, summer temperature (Tx) and precipitation (Pr) are negatively correlated in most terrestrial regions, such that interannual variability lies along an axis from warm-and-dry to cool-and-wet conditions. A climate change trend perpendicular to this axis, towards warmer-wetter conditions, can depart more quickly from the range of natural variability than a warmer-drier trend. This multivariate "departure intensification" effect is evident in all six CMIP5 models that we examined: 23% (9-34%) of the land area of each model exhibits a pronounced increase in 2σ extremesin the Tx-Pr regime relative to Tx or Pr alone. Observational data suggest that Tx-Pr correlations are sufficient to produce departure intensification in distinct regions on all continents. Departures from the historical Tx-Pr regime may produce ecological disruptions, such as in plant-pathogen interactions and human diseases, that could offset the drought mitigation benefits of increased precipitation. Our study alerts researchers and adaptation practitioners to the presence of multivariate climate change signals and compound extremes that are not detectable in individual climate variables.

  5. Tolerance to High Temperature Extremes in an Invasive Lace Bug, Corythucha ciliata (Hemiptera: Tingidae), in Subtropical China

    OpenAIRE

    Ju, Rui-Ting; Gao, Lei; Zhou, Xu-Hui; Li, Bo

    2013-01-01

    Biological invasions are predicted to be more frequent as climate change is increasing its positive impact on the prevalence of invasive exotic species. Success of insect invaders in different temperature zones is closely related to their tolerance to temperature extremes. In this study, we used an exotic lace bug (Corythucha ciliata) as the study organism to address the hypotheses that an insect species invading a subtropical zone from temperate regions has a high capacity to survive and ada...

  6. Global observed long-term changes in temperature and precipitation extremes: A review of progress and limitations in IPCC assessments and beyond

    OpenAIRE

    Lisa V. Alexander

    2016-01-01

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) first attempted a global assessment of long-term changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in its Third Assessment Report in 2001. While data quality and coverage were limited, the report still concluded that heavy precipitation events had increased and that there had been, very likely, a reduction in the frequency of extreme low temperatures and increases in the frequency of extreme high temperatures. That overall assessment had ch...

  7. Observed changes of temperature extremes during 1960-2005 in China: natural or human-induced variations?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Qiang; Li, Jianfeng; David Chen, Yongqin; Chen, Xiaohong

    2011-12-01

    The purpose of this study was to statistically examine changes of surface air temperature in time and space and to analyze two factors potentially influencing air temperature changes in China, i.e., urbanization and net solar radiation. Trends within the temperature series were detected by using Mann-Kendall trend test technique. The scientific problem this study expected to address was that what could be the role of human activities in the changes of temperature extremes. Other influencing factors such as net solar radiation were also discussed. The results of this study indicated that: (1) increasing temperature was observed mainly in the northeast and northwest China; (2) different behaviors were identified in the changes of maximum and minimum temperature respectively. Maximum temperature seemed to be more influenced by urbanization, which could be due to increasing urban albedo, aerosol, and air pollutions in the urbanized areas. Minimum temperature was subject to influences of variations of net solar radiation; (3) not significant increasing and even decreasing temperature extremes in the Yangtze River basin and the regions south to the Yangtze River basin could be the consequences of higher relative humidity as a result of increasing precipitation; (4) the entire China was dominated by increasing minimum temperature. Thus, we can say that the warming process of China was reflected mainly by increasing minimum temperature. In addition, consistently increasing temperature was found in the upper reaches of the Yellow River basin, the Yangtze River basin, which have the potential to enhance the melting of permafrost in these areas. This may trigger new ecological problems and raise new challenges for the river basin scale water resource management.

  8. Energy Storage and Generation for Extreme Temperature and Pressure and Directional Measurement While Drilling Applications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Signorelli, Riccardo [FastCAP Systems Corporation, Boston, MA (United States); Cooley, John [FastCAP Systems Corporation, Boston, MA (United States)

    2015-10-14

    FastCAP Systems Corporation has successfully completed all milestones defined by the award DE-EE0005503. Under this program, FastCAP developed three critical subassemblies to TRL3 demonstrating proof of concept of a geothermal MWD power source. This power source includes an energy harvester, electronics and a novel high temperature ultracapacitor (“ultracap”) rechargeable energy storage device suitable for geothermal exploration applications. FastCAP’s ruggedized ultracapacitor (ultracap) technology has been proven and commercialized in oil and gas exploration operating to rated temperatures of 150°C. Characteristics of this technology are that it is rechargeable and relatively high power. This technology was the basis for the advancements in rechargeable energy storage under this project. The ultracap performs reliably at 250°C and beyond and operates over a wide operating temperature range: -5°C to 250°C. The ultracap has significantly higher power density than lithium thionyl chloride batteries, a non-rechargeable incumbent used in oil and gas drilling today. Several hermetically sealed, prototype devices were tested in our laboratories at constant temperatures of 250°C showing no significant degradation over 2000 hours of operation. Other prototypes were tested at Sandia National Lab in the month of April, 2015 for a third party performance validation. These devices showed outstanding performance over 1000 hours of operation at three rated temperatures, 200°C, 225°C and 250°C, with negligible capacitance degradation and minimal equivalent series resistance (ESR) increase. Similarly, FastCAP’s ruggedized electronics have been proven and commercialized in oil and gas exploration operating to rated temperatures of 150°C. This technology was the basis for the advancements in downhole electronics under this project. Principal contributions here focused on design for manufacture innovations that have reduced the prototype build cycle time by a factor

  9. Gridded Mean Monthly Temperature and Precipitation Data for Alaska, British Columbia, and Yukon

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — To aid in better understanding the temperature and precipitation data of the spatially variable climate of Alaska and Northwest Canada, this dataset was created via...

  10. Acclimation responses to temperature vary with vertical stratification: implications for vulnerability of soil-dwelling species to extreme temperature events

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dooremalen, van C.; Berg, M.P.; Ellers, J.

    2013-01-01

    The occurrence of summer heat waves is predicted to increase in amplitude and frequency in the near future, but the consequences of such extreme events are largely unknown, especially for belowground organisms. Soil organisms usually exhibit strong vertical stratification, resulting in more frequent

  11. Systemic Inflammation during the First Postnatal Month and the Risk of Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder Characteristics among 10 year-old Children Born Extremely Preterm.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allred, Elizabeth N; Dammann, Olaf; Fichorova, Raina N; Hooper, Stephen R; Hunter, Scott J; Joseph, Robert M; Kuban, Karl; Leviton, Alan; O'Shea, Thomas Michael; Scott, Megan N

    2017-09-01

    Although multiple sources link inflammation with attention difficulties, the only human study that evaluated the relationship between systemic inflammation and attention problems assessed attention at age 2 years. Parent and/or teacher completion of the Childhood Symptom Inventory-4 (CSI-4) provided information about characteristics that screen for attention deficit hyperactive disorder (ADHD) among 793 10-year-old children born before the 28th week of gestation who had an IQ ≥ 70. The concentrations of 27 proteins in blood spots obtained during the first postnatal month were measured. 151 children with ADHD behaviors were identified by parent report, while 128 children were identified by teacher report. Top-quartile concentrations of IL-6R, TNF-α, IL-8, VEGF, VEFG-R1, and VEGF-R2 on multiple days were associated with increased risk of ADHD symptoms as assessed by a teacher. Some of this increased risk was modulated by top-quartile concentrations of IL-6R, RANTES, EPO, NT-4, BDNF, bFGF, IGF-1, PIGF, Ang-1, and Ang-2. Systemic inflammation during the first postnatal month among children born extremely preterm appears to increase the risk of teacher-identified ADHD characteristics, and high concentrations of proteins with neurotrophic properties appear capable of modulating this increased risk.

  12. Sensitivity of extreme precipitation to temperature: the variability of scaling factors from a regional to local perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schroeer, K.; Kirchengast, G.

    2018-06-01

    Potential increases in extreme rainfall induced hazards in a warming climate have motivated studies to link precipitation intensities to temperature. Increases exceeding the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) rate of 6-7%/°C-1 are seen in short-duration, convective, high-percentile rainfall at mid latitudes, but the rates of change cease or revert at regionally variable threshold temperatures due to moisture limitations. It is unclear, however, what these findings mean in term of the actual risk of extreme precipitation on a regional to local scale. When conditioning precipitation intensities on local temperatures, key influences on the scaling relationship such as from the annual cycle and regional weather patterns need better understanding. Here we analyze these influences, using sub-hourly to daily precipitation data from a dense network of 189 stations in south-eastern Austria. We find that the temperature sensitivities in the mountainous western region are lower than in the eastern lowlands. This is due to the different weather patterns that cause extreme precipitation in these regions. Sub-hourly and hourly intensities intensify at super-CC and CC-rates, respectively, up to temperatures of about 17 °C. However, we also find that, because of the regional and seasonal variability of the precipitation intensities, a smaller scaling factor can imply a larger absolute change in intensity. Our insights underline that temperature precipitation scaling requires careful interpretation of the intent and setting of the study. When this is considered, conditional scaling factors can help to better understand which influences control the intensification of rainfall with temperature on a regional scale.

  13. The effect of extreme cold temperatures on the risk of death in the two major Portuguese cities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Antunes, Liliana; Silva, Susana Pereira; Marques, Jorge; Nunes, Baltazar; Antunes, Sílvia

    2017-01-01

    It is well known that meteorological conditions influence the comfort and human health. Southern European countries, including Portugal, show the highest mortality rates during winter, but the effects of extreme cold temperatures in Portugal have never been estimated. The objective of this study was the estimation of the effect of extreme cold temperatures on the risk of death in Lisbon and Oporto, aiming the production of scientific evidence for the development of a real-time health warning system. Poisson regression models combined with distributed lag non-linear models were applied to assess the exposure-response relation and lag patterns of the association between minimum temperature and all-causes mortality and between minimum temperature and circulatory and respiratory system diseases mortality from 1992 to 2012, stratified by age, for the period from November to March. The analysis was adjusted for over dispersion and population size, for the confounding effect of influenza epidemics and controlled for long-term trend, seasonality and day of the week. Results showed that the effect of cold temperatures in mortality was not immediate, presenting a 1-2-day delay, reaching maximum increased risk of death after 6-7 days and lasting up to 20-28 days. The overall effect was generally higher and more persistent in Lisbon than in Oporto, particularly for circulatory and respiratory mortality and for the elderly. Exposure to cold temperatures is an important public health problem for a relevant part of the Portuguese population, in particular in Lisbon.

  14. [The reaction of human surface and inside body temperature to extreme hypothermia].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panchenko, O A; Onishchenko, V O; Liakh, Iu Ie

    2011-01-01

    The dynamics of changes in the parameters of the surface and core body temperature under the systematic impact of ultra-low temperature is described in this article. As a source of ultra-low temperature was used (Cryo Therapy Chamber) Zimmer Medizin Systeme firm Zimmer Electromedizin (Germany) (-110 degrees C). Surface and internal body temperature was measured by infrared thermometer immediately before visiting cryochamber and immediately after exiting. In the study conducted 47,464 measurements of body temperature. It was established that the internal temperature of the human body under the influence of ultra-low temperatures in the proposed mode of exposure remains constant, and the surface temperature of the body reduces by an average of 11.57 degrees C. The time frame stabilization of adaptive processes of thermoregulation under the systematic impact of ultra-low temperature was defined in the study.

  15. Role of sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Indo-Pacific region in the northeast Asia severe drought in summer 2014: month-to-month perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Zhiqing; Fan, Ke; Wang, HuiJun

    2017-09-01

    The severe drought over northeast Asia in summer 2014 and the contribution to it by sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Indo-Pacific region were investigated from the month-to-month perspective. The severe drought was accompanied by weak lower-level summer monsoon flow and featured an obvious northward movement during summer. The mid-latitude Asian summer (MAS) pattern and East Asia/Pacific teleconnection (EAP) pattern, induced by the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) and western North Pacific summer monsoon (WNPSM) rainfall anomalies respectively, were two main bridges between the SST anomalies in the tropical Indo-Pacific region and the severe drought. Warming in the Arabian Sea induced reduced rainfall over northeast India and then triggered a negative MAS pattern favoring the severe drought in June 2014. In July 2014, warming in the tropical western North Pacific led to a strong WNPSM and increased rainfall over the Philippine Sea, triggering a positive EAP pattern. The equatorial eastern Pacific and local warming resulted in increased rainfall over the off-equatorial western Pacific and triggered an EAP-like pattern. The EAP pattern and EAP-like pattern contributed to the severe drought in July 2014. A negative Indian Ocean dipole induced an anomalous meridional circulation, and warming in the equatorial eastern Pacific induced an anomalous zonal circulation, in August 2014. The two anomalous cells led to a weak ISM and WNPSM, triggering the negative MAS and EAP patterns responsible for the severe drought. Two possible reasons for the northward movement of the drought were also proposed.

  16. Low Frequency Modulation of Extreme Temperature Regimes in a Changing Climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Black, Robert X. [Georgia Inst. of Technology, Atlanta, GA (United States)

    2014-11-24

    The project examines long-term changes in extreme temperature episodes (ETE) associated with planetary climate modes (PCMs) in both the real atmospheric and climate model simulations. The focus is on cold air outbreaks (CAOs) and warm waves (WWs) occurring over the continental US during the past 60 winters. No significant long-term trends in either WWs or CAOs are observed over the US. The annual frequency of CAOs is affected by the (i) North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) over the Southeast US and (ii) Pacific–North American (PNA) pattern over the Northwest US. WW frequency is influenced by the (i) NAO over the eastern US and (ii) combined influence of PNA, Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), and ENSO over the southern US. The collective influence of PCMs accounts for as much as 50% of the regional variability in ETE frequency. During CAO (WW) events occurring over the southeast US, there are low (high) pressure anomalies at higher atmospheric levels over the southeast US with oppositely-signed pressure anomalies in the lower atmosphere over the central US. These patterns lead to anomalous northerly (for CAOs) or southerly (for WWs) flow into the southeast leading to cold or warm surface air temperature anomalies, respectively. One distinction is that CAOs involve substantial air mass transport while WW formation is more local in nature. The primary differences among event categories are in the origin and nature of the pressure anomaly features linked to ETE onset. In some cases, PCMs help to provide a favorable environment for event onset. Heat budget analyses indicate that latitudinal transport in the lower atmosphere is the main contributor to regional cooling during CAO onset. This is partly offset by adiabatic warming associated with subsiding air. Additional diagnoses reveal that this latitudinal transport is partly due to the remote physical influence of a shallow cold pool of air trapped along the east side of the Rocky Mountains. ETE and PCM behavior is also

  17. The Effects of Spectral Nudging on Arctic Temperature and Precipitation Extremes as Produced by the Pan-Arctic WRF

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glisan, J. M.; Gutowski, W. J.; Higgins, M.; Cassano, J. J.

    2011-12-01

    Pan-Arctic WRF (PAW) simulations produced using the 50-km wr50a domain developed for the fully-coupled Regional Arctic Climate Model (RACM) were found to produce deep atmospheric circulation biases over the northern Pacific Ocean, manifested in pressure, geopotential height, and temperature fields. Various remedies were unsuccessfully tested to correct these large biases, such as modifying the physical domain or using different initial/boundary conditions. Spectral (interior) nudging was introduced as a way of constraining the model to be more consistent with observed behavior. However, such control over numerical model behavior raises concerns over how much nudging may affect unforced variability and extremes. Strong nudging may reduce or filter out extreme events, since the nudging pushes the model toward a relatively smooth, large-scale state. The question then becomes - what is the minimum spectral nudging needed to correct the biases occurring on the RACM domain while not limiting PAW simulation of extreme events? To determine this, case studies were devised, using a six-member PAW ensemble on the RACM grid with varying spectral nudging strength. Two simulations were run, one in the cold season (January 2007) and one in a warm season (July 2007). Precipitation and 2-m temperature fields were extracted from the output and analyzed to determine how changing spectral nudging strength impacts both temporal and spatial temperature and precipitation extremes. The maximum and minimum temperatures at each point from among the ensemble members were examined, on the 95th confidence interval. The maximum and minimums over the simulation period will also be considered. Results suggest that there is a marked lack of sensitivity to the degrees of nudging. Moreover, it appears nudging strength can be considerably smaller than the standard strength and still produce reliably good simulations.

  18. Changes in a suite of indicators of extreme temperature and precipitation under 1.5 and 2 degrees warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aerenson, Travis; Tebaldi, Claudia; Sanderson, Ben; Lamarque, Jean-François

    2018-03-01

    Following the 2015 Paris agreement, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was tasked with assessing climate change impacts and mitigation options for a world that limits warming to 1.5 °C in a special report. To aid the scientific assessment process three low-warming ensembles were generated over the 21st century based on the Paris targets using NCAR-DOE community model, CESM1-CAM5. This study used those simulation results and computed ten extreme climate indices, from definitions created by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices, to determine if the three different scenarios cause different intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation or temperature over the 21st century. After computing the indices, statistical tests were used to determine if significant changes affect their characteristics. It was found that at the grid point level significant changes emerge in all scenarios, for nearly all indices. The temperature indices show widespread significant change, while the behavior of precipitation indices reflects the larger role that internal variability plays, even by the end of the century. Nonetheless differences can be assessed, in substantial measure for many of these indices: changes in nearly all indices have a strong correlation to global mean temperature, so that scenarios and times with greater temperature change experience greater index changes for many regions. This is particularly true of the temperature-related indices, but can be assessed for some regions also for the indices related to precipitation intensity. These results thus show that even for scenarios that are separated by only half of a degree in global average temperature, the statistics of extremes are significantly different.

  19. Early working memory as a racially and ethnically neutral measure of outcome in extremely preterm children at 18-22 months.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lowe, Jean R; Duncan, Andrea Freeman; Bann, Carla M; Fuller, Janell; Hintz, Susan R; Das, Abhik; Higgins, Rosemary D; Watterberg, Kristi L

    2013-12-01

    Difficulties with executive function have been found in preterm children, resulting in difficulties with learning and school performance. This study evaluated the relationship of early working memory as measured by object permanence items to the cognitive and language scores on the Bayley Scales-III in a cohort of children born extremely preterm. Logistic regression models were conducted to compare object permanence scores derived from the Bayley Scales-III by race/ethnicity and maternal education, controlling for medical covariates. Extremely preterm toddlers (526), who were part of a Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development Neonatal Research Network's multi-center study, were evaluated at 18-22 months corrected age. Object permanence scores derived from the Bayley Developmental Scales were compared by race/ethnicity and maternal education, controlling for medical covariates. There were no significant differences in object permanence mastery and scores among the treatment groups after controlling for medical and social variables, including maternal education and race/ethnicity. Males and children with intraventricular hemorrhage, retinopathy of prematurity, and bronchopulmonary dysplasia were less likely to demonstrate object permanence mastery and had lower object permanence scores. Children who attained object permanence mastery had significantly higher Bayley Scales-III cognitive and language scores after controlling for medical and socio-economic factors. Our measure of object permanence is free of influence from race, ethnic and socio-economic factors. Adding this simple task to current clinical practice could help detect early executive function difficulties in young children. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

  20. Quantitative PCR Profiling of Escherichia coli in Livestock Feces Reveals Increased Population Resilience Relative to Culturable Counts under Temperature Extremes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oliver, David M; Bird, Clare; Burd, Emmy; Wyman, Michael

    2016-09-06

    The relationship between culturable counts (CFU) and quantitative PCR (qPCR) cell equivalent counts of Escherichia coli in dairy feces exposed to different environmental conditions and temperature extremes was investigated. Fecal samples were collected in summer and winter from dairy cowpats held under two treatments: field-exposed versus polytunnel-protected. A significant correlation in quantified E. coli was recorded between the qPCR and culture-based methods (r = 0.82). Evaluation of the persistence profiles of E. coli over time revealed no significant difference in the E. coli numbers determined as either CFU or gene copies during the summer for the field-exposed cowpats, whereas significantly higher counts were observed by qPCR for the polytunnel-protected cowpats, which were exposed to higher ambient temperatures. In winter, the qPCR returned significantly higher counts of E. coli for the field-exposed cowpats, thus representing a reversal of the findings from the summer sampling campaign. Results from this study suggest that with increasing time post-defecation and with the onset of challenging environmental conditions, such as extremes in temperature, culture-based counts begin to underestimate the true resilience of viable E. coli populations in livestock feces. This is important not only in the long term as the Earth changes in response to climate-change drivers but also in the short term during spells of extremely cold or hot weather.

  1. Extreme Temperatures over India in the 1.5°C and 2°C warmer worlds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thanigachalam, A.; Achutarao, K. M.

    2017-12-01

    n the summer of 2015 a heat wave claimed more than 2500 lives of southeastern India. Wehner et al., (2016) showed that the risk of this heat wave has increased due to anthropogenic forcings. Under the RCP 8.5 scenario, surface temperature over India shows a rate of increase of about 0.2°C/decade during the 21st Century (Basha et al., 2017). The extreme temperatures that have occurred in the recent past and further increases projected for the future have implications for human health and productivity. In light of the Paris accords, future stabilization of global mean temperature at the 1.5°C above pre-industrial aspirational target and the "not to be exceeded" 2°C target (still higher than current temperatures), the possibility of increases in extreme temperatures under these scenarios is very real. In this study we seek to understand the nature of extreme temperatures over India in the 1.5°C and 2°C worlds in comparison to the current climate. We make use of model output contributed under the Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts project (HAPPI; Mitchell et al., 2017). The HAPPI database contains output from many atmospheric GCMs with multiple simulations ( 100 each) of historical (2005-2015), 1.5°C warmer decade, and 2°C warmer decade. The large number of ensembles provides an opportunity to study the extremes in temperature that occur over India and how they may change. In order to provide insights into the future comparable against current operational practices, we make use of definitions of "hot days", "heat waves", and "severe heat waves" used by the India Meteorological Department (IMD). We compare modelled data (and bias corrected model output where available) against observed daily temperatures from the IMD gridded (1°x1°) dataset available for 1951-2015 as also circulation features that lead to such events by comparing against reanalysis products. We also investigate the timing of such events in the future scenarios

  2. The Shifting Seasonal Mean Autoregressive Model and Seasonality in the Central England Monthly Temperature Series, 1772-2016

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    He, Changli; Kang, Jian; Terasvirta, Timo

    In this paper we introduce an autoregressive model with seasonal dummy variables in which coefficients of seasonal dummies vary smoothly and deterministically over time. The error variance of the model is seasonally heteroskedastic and multiplicatively decomposed, the decomposition being similar ...... temperature series. More specifically, the idea is to find out in which way and by how much the monthly temperatures are varying over time during the period of more than 240 years, if they do. Misspecification tests are applied to the estimated model and the findings discussed....

  3. Weather extremes and the Romans - A marine palynological perspective on Italian temperature and precipitation between 200 BC and 500 AD

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zonneveld, Karin; Clotten, Caroline; Chen, Liang

    2015-04-01

    Sediments of a tephra-dated marine sediment core located at the distal part of the Po-river discharge plume (southern Italy) have been studied with a three annual resolution. Based on the variability in the dinoflagellate cyst content detailed reconstructions have been established of variability in precipitation related river discharge rates and local air temperature. Furthermore about the variability in distort water quality has been reconstructed. We show that both precipitation and temperature signals vary in tune with cyclic changes in solar insolation. On top of these cyclic changes, short term extremes in temperature and precipitation can be observed that can be interpreted to reflect periods of local weather extremes. Comparison of our reconstructions with historical information suggest that times of high temperatures and maximal precipitation corresponds to the period of maximal expansion of the Roman Empire. We have strong indications that at this time discharge waters might have contained higher nutrient concentrations compared to previous and later time intervals suggesting anthropogenic influence of the water quality. First pilot-results suggest that the decrease in temperature reconstructed just after the "Roman Optimum" corresponds to an increase in numbers of armored conflicts between the Roman and German cultures. Furthermore we observe a resemblance in timing of short-term intervals with cold weather spells during the early so called "Dark-Age-Period" to correspond to epidemic/pandemic events in Europe.

  4. Modeling monthly meteorological and agronomic frost days, based on minimum air temperature, in Center-Southern Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alvares, Clayton Alcarde; Sentelhas, Paulo César; Stape, José Luiz

    2017-09-01

    Although Brazil is predominantly a tropical country, frosts are observed with relative high frequency in the Center-Southern states of the country, affecting mainly agriculture, forestry, and human activities. Therefore, information about the frost climatology is of high importance for planning of these activities. Based on that, the aims of the present study were to develop monthly meteorological (F MET) and agronomic (F AGR) frost day models, based on minimum shelter air temperature (T MN), in order to characterize the temporal and spatial frost days variability in Center-Southern Brazil. Daily minimum air temperature data from 244 weather stations distributed across the study area were used, being 195 for developing the models and 49 for validating them. Multivariate regression models were obtained to estimate the monthly T MN, once the frost day models were based on this variable. All T MN regression models were statistically significant (p Brazilian region are the first zoning of these variables for the country.

  5. MOnthly TEmperature DAtabase of Spain 1951-2010: MOTEDAS (2): The Correlation Decay Distance (CDD) and the spatial variability of maximum and minimum monthly temperature in Spain during (1981-2010).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cortesi, Nicola; Peña-Angulo, Dhais; Simolo, Claudia; Stepanek, Peter; Brunetti, Michele; Gonzalez-Hidalgo, José Carlos

    2014-05-01

    One of the key point in the develop of the MOTEDAS dataset (see Poster 1 MOTEDAS) in the framework of the HIDROCAES Project (Impactos Hidrológicos del Calentamiento Global en España, Spanish Ministery of Research CGL2011-27574-C02-01) is the reference series for which no generalized metadata exist. In this poster we present an analysis of spatial variability of monthly minimum and maximum temperatures in the conterminous land of Spain (Iberian Peninsula, IP), by using the Correlation Decay Distance function (CDD), with the aim of evaluating, at sub-regional level, the optimal threshold distance between neighbouring stations for producing the set of reference series used in the quality control (see MOTEDAS Poster 1) and the reconstruction (see MOREDAS Poster 3). The CDD analysis for Tmax and Tmin was performed calculating a correlation matrix at monthly scale between 1981-2010 among monthly mean values of maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) temperature series (with at least 90% of data), free of anomalous data and homogenized (see MOTEDAS Poster 1), obtained from AEMEt archives (National Spanish Meteorological Agency). Monthly anomalies (difference between data and mean 1981-2010) were used to prevent the dominant effect of annual cycle in the CDD annual estimation. For each station, and time scale, the common variance r2 (using the square of Pearson's correlation coefficient) was calculated between all neighbouring temperature series and the relation between r2 and distance was modelled according to the following equation (1): Log (r2ij) = b*°dij (1) being Log(rij2) the common variance between target (i) and neighbouring series (j), dij the distance between them and b the slope of the ordinary least-squares linear regression model applied taking into account only the surrounding stations within a starting radius of 50 km and with a minimum of 5 stations required. Finally, monthly, seasonal and annual CDD values were interpolated using the Ordinary Kriging with a

  6. Recent trends in pre-monsoon daily temperature extremes over India

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    e-mail: kotha@tropmet.res.in. Extreme climate and weather events are increasingly being recognized as key aspects of climate change. Pre-monsoon season ... change in day-to-day magnitude of fluctuations of pre-monsoon maximum and minimum tempera- tures. ... by high exceedence counts during drought periods.

  7. Climate change impacts on extreme temperature mortality in select metropolitan areas of the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Projected mortality from climate change-driven impacts on extremely hot and cold days increases significantly over the 21st century in a large group of United States Metropolitan Statistical Areas. Increases in projected mortality from more hot days are greater than decreases in ...

  8. Sudden temperature changes in the Sydney Basin: climatology and case studies during the Olympic months of September and October

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buckley, Bruce W.; Leslie, Lance M.

    2000-03-01

    The accurate prediction of sudden large changes in the maximum temperature from one day to the next remains one of the major challenges for operational forecasters. It is probably the meteorological parameter most commonly verified and used as a measure of the skill of a meteorological service and one that is immediately evident to the general public. Marked temperature changes over a short period of time have widespread social, economic, health and safety effects on the community. The first part of this paper describes a 40-year climatology for Sydney, Australia, of sudden temperature rises and falls, defined as maximum temperature changes of 5°C or more from one day to the next, for the months of September and October. The nature of the forecasting challenge during the period of the Olympic and Paralympic Games to be held in Sydney in the year 2000 will be described as a special application. The international importance of the accurate prediction of all types of significant weather phenomena during this period has been recognized by the World Meteorological Organisation's Commission for Atmospheric Science. The first World Weather Research Program forecast demonstration project is to be established in the Sydney Office of the Bureau of Meteorology over this period in order to test the ability of existing systems to predict such phenomena. The second part of this study investigates two case studies from the Olympic months in which there were both abrupt temperature rises and falls over a 4-day interval. Currently available high resolution numerical weather prediction systems are found to have significant skill several days ahead in predicting a large amount of the detail of these events, provided they are run at an appropriate resolution. The limitations of these systems are also discussed, with areas requiring further development being identified if the desired levels of accuracy of predictions are to be reliably delivered. Differences between the predictability

  9. Extreme temperatures increase the deleterious consequences of inbreeding under laboratory and semi-natural conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kristensen, Torsten Nygård; Barker, J. Stuart F.; Pedersen, Kamilla Sofie

    2008-01-01

    when compared with non-inbred lines of Drosophila melanogaster under different temperature conditions. Egg-to-adult viability, developmental time and sex ratio of emerging adults are studied under low, intermediate and high temperatures under laboratory as well as semi-natural conditions. The results...... show inbreeding depression for egg-to-adult viability. The level of inbreeding depression is highly dependent on test temperature and is observed only at low and high temperatures. Inbreeding did not affect the developmental time or the sex ratio of emerging adults. However, temperature affected...... the sex ratio with more females relative to males emerging at low temperatures, suggesting that selection against males in pre-adult life stages is stronger at low temperatures. The coefficient of variation (CV) of egg-to-adult viability within and among lines is higher for inbred flies and generally...

  10. Large reptiles and cold temperatures: Do extreme cold spells set distributional limits for tropical reptiles in Florida?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mazzotti, Frank J.; Cherkiss, Michael S.; Parry, Mark; Beauchamp, Jeff; Rochford, Mike; Smith, Brian J.; Hart, Kristen M.; Brandt, Laura A.

    2016-01-01

    Distributional limits of many tropical species in Florida are ultimately determined by tolerance to low temperature. An unprecedented cold spell during 2–11 January 2010, in South Florida provided an opportunity to compare the responses of tropical American crocodiles with warm-temperate American alligators and to compare the responses of nonnative Burmese pythons with native warm-temperate snakes exposed to prolonged cold temperatures. After the January 2010 cold spell, a record number of American crocodiles (n = 151) and Burmese pythons (n = 36) were found dead. In contrast, no American alligators and no native snakes were found dead. American alligators and American crocodiles behaved differently during the cold spell. American alligators stopped basking and retreated to warmer water. American crocodiles apparently continued to bask during extreme cold temperatures resulting in lethal body temperatures. The mortality of Burmese pythons compared to the absence of mortality for native snakes suggests that the current population of Burmese pythons in the Everglades is less tolerant of cold temperatures than native snakes. Burmese pythons introduced from other parts of their native range may be more tolerant of cold temperatures. We documented the direct effects of cold temperatures on crocodiles and pythons; however, evidence of long-term effects of cold temperature on their populations within their established ranges remains lacking. Mortality of crocodiles and pythons outside of their current established range may be more important in setting distributional limits.

  11. The role of land-climate interactions for the regional amplification of temperature extremes in climate projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seneviratne, S. I.; Vogel, M.; Zscheischler, J.; Schwingshackl, C.; Davin, E.; Gudmundsson, L.; Guillod, B.; Hauser, M.; Hirsch, A.; Hirschi, M.; Humphrey, V.; Thiery, W.

    2017-12-01

    Regional hot extremes are projected to increase more strongly than the global mean temperature, with substantially larger changes than 2°C even if global warming is limited to this level (Seneviratne et al. 2016). This presentation will highlight the processes underlying this behavior, which is strongly related to land-climate feedbacks (Vogel et al. 2017). The identified feedbacks are also affecting the occurrence probability of compound drought and heat events (Zscheischler and Seneviratne 2017), with high relevance for impacts on forest fire and agriculture production. Moreover, the responsible land processes strongly contribute to the inter-model spread in the projections, and can thus be used to derive observations-based constraints to reduce the uncertainty of projected changes in climate extremes. Finally, we will also discuss the role of soil moisture effects on carbon uptake and their relevance for projections, as well as the role of land use changes in affecting the identified feedbacks and projected changes in climate extremes. References: Seneviratne, S.I., M. Donat, A.J. Pitman, R. Knutti, and R.L. Wilby, 2016: Allowable CO2 emissions based on regional and impact-related climate targets. Nature, 529, 477-483, doi:10.1038/nature16542. Vogel, M.M., R. Orth, F. Cheruy, S. Hagemann, R. Lorenz, B.J.J.M. Hurk, and S.I. Seneviratne, 2017: Regional amplification of projected changes in extreme temperatures strongly controlled by soil moisture-temperature feedbacks. Geophysical Research Letters, 44(3), 1511-1519, doi:10.1002/2016GL071235. Zscheischler, J., and S.I. Seneviratne, 2017: Dependence of drivers affects risks associated with compound events. Science Advances, 3(6), doi: 10.1126/sciadv.1700263

  12. TOPICAL REVIEW: Protein stability and enzyme activity at extreme biological temperatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feller, Georges

    2010-08-01

    Psychrophilic microorganisms thrive in permanently cold environments, even at subzero temperatures. To maintain metabolic rates compatible with sustained life, they have improved the dynamics of their protein structures, thereby enabling appropriate molecular motions required for biological activity at low temperatures. As a consequence of this structural flexibility, psychrophilic proteins are unstable and heat-labile. In the upper range of biological temperatures, thermophiles and hyperthermophiles grow at temperatures > 100 °C and synthesize ultra-stable proteins. However, thermophilic enzymes are nearly inactive at room temperature as a result of their compactness and rigidity. At the molecular level, both types of extremophilic proteins have adapted the same structural factors, but in opposite directions, to address either activity at low temperatures or stability in hot environments. A model based on folding funnels is proposed accounting for the stability-activity relationships in extremophilic proteins.

  13. Detection and Attribution of Climate Change : From global mean temperature change to climate extremes and high impact weather.

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN. Geneva

    2013-01-01

    This talk will describe how evidence has grown in recent years for a human influence on climate and explain how the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded that it is extremely likely (>95% probability) that human influence on climate has been the dominant cause of the observed global-mean warming since the mid-20th century. The fingerprint of human activities has also been detected in warming of the ocean, in changes in the global water cycle, in reductions in snow and ice, and in changes in some climate extremes. The strengthening of evidence for the effects of human influence on climate extremes is in line with long-held basic understanding of the consequences of mean warming for temperature extremes and for atmospheric moisture. Despite such compelling evidence this does not mean that every instance of high impact weather can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change, because climate variability is often a major factor in many locations, especially for rain...

  14. High temperature extremes in the Czech Republic 1961–2010 and their synoptic variants

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Valeriánová, A.; Crhová, L.; Holtanová, E.; Kašpar, Marek; Müller, Miloslav; Pecho, Jozef

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 127, 1-2 (2016), s. 17-29 ISSN 0177-798X R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GAP209/11/1990 Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : weather extreme * heat waves * Central Europe * atmospheric circulation Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 2.640, year: 2016 http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00704-015-1614-8/fulltext.html

  15. Large-strain time-temperature equivalence in high density polyethylene for prediction of extreme deformation and damage

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gray G.T.

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Time-temperature equivalence is a widely recognized property of many time-dependent material systems, where there is a clear predictive link relating the deformation response at a nominal temperature and a high strain-rate to an equivalent response at a depressed temperature and nominal strain-rate. It has been found that high-density polyethylene (HDPE obeys a linear empirical formulation relating test temperature and strain-rate. This observation was extended to continuous stress-strain curves, such that material response measured in a load frame at large strains and low strain-rates (at depressed temperatures could be translated into a temperature-dependent response at high strain-rates and validated against Taylor impact results. Time-temperature equivalence was used in conjuction with jump-rate compression tests to investigate isothermal response at high strain-rate while exluding adiabatic heating. The validated constitutive response was then applied to the analysis of Dynamic-Tensile-Extrusion of HDPE, a tensile analog to Taylor impact developed at LANL. The Dyn-Ten-Ext test results and FEA found that HDPE deformed smoothly after exiting the die, and after substantial drawing appeared to undergo a pressure-dependent shear damage mechanism at intermediate velocities, while it fragmented at high velocities. Dynamic-Tensile-Extrusion, properly coupled with a validated constitutive model, can successfully probe extreme tensile deformation and damage of polymers.

  16. Extreme implanting in Si: A study of ion-induced damage at high temperature and high dose

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holland, O.W.

    1994-01-01

    Ion-solid interactions near room temperature and below have been well studied in single-crystal Si. While this has led to a better understanding of the mechanisms responsible for nucleation and growth of lattice damage during irradiation, these studies have not, in general, been extended to high temperatures (e.g., >200 degrees C). This is the case despite the commercialization of ion beam technologies which utilize high-temperature processing, such as separation by implantation of oxygen (SIMOX). In this process, a silicon-on-insulator (SOI) material is produced by implanting a high dose of oxygen ions into a Si wafer to form a buried, stoichiometric oxide layer. Results will be presented of a study of damage accumulation during high-dose implantation of Si at elevated temperatures. In particular, O + -ions were used because of the potential impact of the results on the SIMOX technology. It will be shown that the nature of the damage accumulation at elevated temperatures is quite distinctive and portends the presence of a new mechanism, one which is only dominant under the extreme conditions encountered during ion beam synthesis (i.e., high temperature and high dose). This mechanism is discussed and shown to be quite general and not dependent on the chemical identity of the ions. Also, techniques for suppressing this mechanism by open-quotes defect engineeringclose quotes are discussed. Such techniques are technologically relevant because they offer the possibility of reducing the defect density of the SOI produced by SIMOX

  17. Temperature and extreme rainfalls on France in a climatic change scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Deque, M.

    2007-01-01

    Impact of an anthropogenic climate change scenario on the frequency distribution of temperature and precipitation over France is studied with a numerical simulation calibrated with observed daily data from the synoptic network. (author)

  18. Extreme Temperature Radiation Tolerant Instrumentation for Nuclear Thermal Propulsion Engines, Phase I

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The objective of this proposal is to develop and commercialize a high reliability, high temperature smart neutron flux sensor for NASA Nuclear Thermal Propulsion...

  19. Percentile-Based ETCCDI Temperature Extremes Indices for CMIP5 Model Output: New Results through Semiparametric Quantile Regression Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, L.; Yang, C.

    2017-12-01

    Climate extremes often manifest as rare events in terms of surface air temperature and precipitation with an annual reoccurrence period. In order to represent the manifold characteristics of climate extremes for monitoring and analysis, the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) had worked out a set of 27 core indices based on daily temperature and precipitation data, describing extreme weather and climate events on an annual basis. The CLIMDEX project (http://www.climdex.org) had produced public domain datasets of such indices for data from a variety of sources, including output from global climate models (GCM) participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Among the 27 ETCCDI indices, there are six percentile-based temperature extremes indices that may fall into two groups: exceedance rates (ER) (TN10p, TN90p, TX10p and TX90p) and durations (CSDI and WSDI). Percentiles must be estimated prior to the calculation of the indices, and could more or less be biased by the adopted algorithm. Such biases will in turn be propagated to the final results of indices. The CLIMDEX used an empirical quantile estimator combined with a bootstrap resampling procedure to reduce the inhomogeneity in the annual series of the ER indices. However, there are still some problems remained in the CLIMDEX datasets, namely the overestimated climate variability due to unaccounted autocorrelation in the daily temperature data, seasonally varying biases and inconsistency between algorithms applied to the ER indices and to the duration indices. We now present new results of the six indices through a semiparametric quantile regression approach for the CMIP5 model output. By using the base-period data as a whole and taking seasonality and autocorrelation into account, this approach successfully addressed the aforementioned issues and came out with consistent results. The new datasets cover the historical and three projected (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP

  20. Studies of nuclei under the extreme conditions of density, temperature, isospin asymmetry and the phase diagram of hadronic matter

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mekjian, Aram [Rutgers Univ., Piscataway, NJ (United States). Dept. of Physics and Astronomy

    2016-10-18

    The main emphasis of the entire project is on issues having to do with medium energy and ultra-relativistic energy and heavy ion collisions. A major goal of both theory and experiment is to study properties of hot dense nuclear matter under various extreme conditions and to map out the phase diagram in density or chemical potential and temperature. My studies in medium energy nuclear collisions focused on the liquid-gas phase transition and cluster yields from such transitions. Here I developed both the statistical model of nuclear multi-fragmentation and also a mean field theory.

  1. Extreme temperature stability of thermally insulating graphene-mesoporous-silicon nanocomposite

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kolhatkar, Gitanjali; Boucherif, Abderraouf; Rahim Boucherif, Abderrahim; Dupuy, Arthur; Fréchette, Luc G.; Arès, Richard; Ruediger, Andreas

    2018-04-01

    We demonstrate the thermal stability and thermal insulation of graphene-mesoporous-silicon nanocomposites (GPSNC). By comparing the morphology of GPSNC carbonized at 650 °C as-formed to that after annealing, we show that this nanocomposite remains stable at temperatures as high as 1050 °C due to the presence of a few monolayers of graphene coating on the pore walls. This does not only make this material compatible with most thermal processes but also suggests applications in harsh high temperature environments. The thermal conductivity of GPSNCs carbonized at temperatures in the 500 °C-800 °C range is determined through Raman spectroscopy measurements. They indicate that the thermal conductivity of the composite is lower than that of silicon, with a value of 13 ± 1 W mK-1 at room temperature, and not affected by the thin graphene layer, suggesting a role of the high concentration of carbon related-defects as indicated by the high intensity of the D-band compared to G-band of the Raman spectra. This morphological stability at high temperature combined with a high thermal insulation make GPSNC a promising candidate for a broad range of applications including microelectromechanical systems and thermal effect microsystems such as flow sensors or IR detectors. Finally, at 120 °C, the thermal conductivity remains equal to that at room temperature, attesting to the potential of using our nanocomposite in devices that operate at high temperatures such as microreactors for distributed chemical conversion, solid oxide fuel cells, thermoelectric devices or thermal micromotors.

  2. Effects of sample size on estimation of rainfall extremes at high temperatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boessenkool, Berry; Bürger, Gerd; Heistermann, Maik

    2017-09-01

    High precipitation quantiles tend to rise with temperature, following the so-called Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) scaling. It is often reported that the CC-scaling relation breaks down and even reverts for very high temperatures. In our study, we investigate this reversal using observational climate data from 142 stations across Germany. One of the suggested meteorological explanations for the breakdown is limited moisture supply. Here we argue that, instead, it could simply originate from undersampling. As rainfall frequency generally decreases with higher temperatures, rainfall intensities as dictated by CC scaling are less likely to be recorded than for moderate temperatures. Empirical quantiles are conventionally estimated from order statistics via various forms of plotting position formulas. They have in common that their largest representable return period is given by the sample size. In small samples, high quantiles are underestimated accordingly. The small-sample effect is weaker, or disappears completely, when using parametric quantile estimates from a generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) fitted with L moments. For those, we obtain quantiles of rainfall intensities that continue to rise with temperature.

  3. Effects of sample size on estimation of rainfall extremes at high temperatures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Boessenkool

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available High precipitation quantiles tend to rise with temperature, following the so-called Clausius–Clapeyron (CC scaling. It is often reported that the CC-scaling relation breaks down and even reverts for very high temperatures. In our study, we investigate this reversal using observational climate data from 142 stations across Germany. One of the suggested meteorological explanations for the breakdown is limited moisture supply. Here we argue that, instead, it could simply originate from undersampling. As rainfall frequency generally decreases with higher temperatures, rainfall intensities as dictated by CC scaling are less likely to be recorded than for moderate temperatures. Empirical quantiles are conventionally estimated from order statistics via various forms of plotting position formulas. They have in common that their largest representable return period is given by the sample size. In small samples, high quantiles are underestimated accordingly. The small-sample effect is weaker, or disappears completely, when using parametric quantile estimates from a generalized Pareto distribution (GPD fitted with L moments. For those, we obtain quantiles of rainfall intensities that continue to rise with temperature.

  4. Trends in extreme daily temperatures and humidex index in the United Arab Emirates over 1948-2014.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, H. W.; Ouarda, T.

    2015-12-01

    This study deals with the analysis of the characteristics of extreme temperature events in the Middle East, using NCEP reanalysis gridded data, for the summer (May-October) and winter (November-April) seasons. Trends in the occurrences of three types of heat spells during 1948-2014 are studied by both Linear Regression (LR) and Mann-Kendall (MK) test. Changes in the diurnal temperature range (DTR) are also investigated. To better understand the effects of heat spells on public health, the Humidex, a combination index of ambient temperature and relative humidity, is also used. Using percentile threshold, temperature (Humidex) Type-A and Type-B heat spells are defined respectively by daily maximum and minimum temperature (Humidex). Type-C heat spells are defined as the joint occurrence of Type-A and Type-B heat spells at the same time. In the Middle East, it is found that no coherent trend in temperature Type-A heat spells is observed. However, the occurrences of temperature Type-B and C heat spells have consistently increased since 1948. For Humidex heat spells, coherently increased activities of all three types of heat spells are observed in the area. During the summer, the magnitude of the positive trends in Humidex heat spells are generally stronger than temperature heat spells. More than half of the locations in the area show significantly negative DTR trends in the summer, but the trends vary according to the region in the winter. Annual mean temperature has increased an average by 0.5°C, but it is mainly associated with the daily minimum temperature which has warmed up by 0.84°C.Daily maximum temperature showed no significant trends. The warming is hence stronger in minimum temperatures than in maximum temperatures resulting in a decrease in DTR by 0.16 °C per decade. This study indicates hence that the UAE has not become hotter, but it has become less cold during 1948 to 2014.

  5. Static reliability of concrete structures under extreme temperature, radiation, moisture and force loading

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stepanek, P.; Stastnik, S.; Salajka, V.; Hradil, P.; Skolar, J.; Chlanda, V.

    2003-01-01

    The contribution presents some aspects of the static reliability of concrete structures under temperature effects and under mechanical loading. The mathematical model of a load-bearing concrete structure was performed using the FEM method. The temperature field and static stress that generated states of stress were taken into account. A brief description of some aspects of evaluation of the reliability within the primary circuit concrete structures is stated. The knowledge of actual physical and mechanical characteristics and chemical composition of concrete were necessary for obtaining correct results of numerical analysis. (author)

  6. The environmental plasticity of diverse body color caused by extremely long photoperiods and high temperature in Saccharosydne procerus (Homoptera: Delphacidae

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haichen Yin

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Melanization reflects not only body color variation but also environmental plasticity. It is a strategy that helps insects adapt to environmental change. Different color morphs may have distinct life history traits, e.g., development time, growth rate, and body weight. The green slender planthopper Saccharosydne procerus (Matsumura is the main pest of water bamboo (Zizania latifolia. This insect has two color morphs. The present study explored the influence of photoperiod and its interaction with temperature in nymph stage on adult melanism. Additionally, the longevity, fecundity, mating rate, and hatching rate of S. procerus were examined to determine whether the fitness of the insect was influenced by melanism under different temperature and photoperiod. The results showed that a greater number of melanic morphs occurred if the photoperiod was extremely long. A two-factor ANOVA showed that temperature and photoperiod both have a significant influence on melanism. The percentages of variation explained by these factors were 45.53% and 48.71%, respectively. Moreover, melanic morphs had greater advantages than non-melanic morphs under an environmental regime of high temperatures and a long photoperiod, whereas non-melanic morphs were better adapted to cold temperatures and a short photoperiod. These results cannot be explained by the thermal melanism hypothesis. Thus, it may be unavailable to seek to explain melanism in terms of only one hypothesis.

  7. In-transit temperature extremes could have negative effects on ladybird (Coleomegilla maculata) hatch rate

    Science.gov (United States)

    The shipment of mass-produced natural enemies for augmentative release is a standard procedure used by the biological control industry. Yet there has been insufficient research on the effects of temperature change, experienced during shipment, on the quality of predators as they arrive at release si...

  8. Sulfate reducing processes at extreme salinity and temperature. extending its application window

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vallero, M.V.G.

    2003-01-01

    The characteristics of various sulfate-rich wastewaters, such as temperature, pH and salinity, are determined by the (industrial) process from which they originate, and can be far from the physiological optima of the sulfur cycle microorganisms. The main goal of the research described in this thesis

  9. Stable, Extreme Temperature, High Radiation, Compact. Low Power Clock Oscillator for Space, Geothermal, Down-Hole & other High Reliability Applications, Phase II

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Efficient and stable clock signal generation requirements at extreme temperatures (-180C to +450C)and radiation (>250 Krad TID) are not met with the current...

  10. Novel spin transition between S = 5/2 and S = 3/2 in highly saddled iron(III) porphyrin complexes at extremely low temperatures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ohgo, Yoshiki; Chiba, Yuya; Hashizume, Daisuke; Uekusa, Hidehiro; Ozeki, Tomoji; Nakamura, Mikio

    2006-05-14

    A novel spin transition between S = 5/2 and S = 3/2 has been observed for the first time in five-coordinate, highly saddled iron(III) porphyrinates by EPR and SQUID measurements at extremely low temperatures.

  11. How Robust Are the Surface Temperature Fingerprints of the Atlantic Overturning Meridional Circulation on Monthly Time Scales?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexander-Turner, R.; Ortega, P.; Robson, J. I.

    2018-04-01

    It has been suggested that changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) can drive sea surface temperature (SST) on monthly time scales (Duchez et al., 2016, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GB005667). However, with only 11 years of continuous observations, the validity of this result over longer, or different, time periods is uncertain. In this study, we use a 120 yearlong control simulation from a high-resolution climate model to test the robustness of the AMOC fingerprints. The model reproduces the observed AMOC seasonal cycle and its variability, and the observed 5-month lagged AMOC-SST fingerprints derived from 11 years of data. However, the AMOC-SST fingerprints are very sensitive to the particular time period considered. In particular, both the Florida current and the upper mid-ocean transport produce highly inconsistent fingerprints when using time periods shorter than 30 years. Therefore, several decades of RAPID observations will be necessary to determine the real impact of the AMOC on SSTs at monthly time scales.

  12. Combination of synoptical-analogous and dynamical methods to increase skill score of monthly air temperature forecasts over Northern Eurasia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, Valentina; Tscepelev, Valery; Vilfand, Roman; Kulikova, Irina; Kruglova, Ekaterina; Tischenko, Vladimir

    2016-04-01

    Long-range forecasts at monthly-seasonal time scale are in great demand of socio-economic sectors for exploiting climate-related risks and opportunities. At the same time, the quality of long-range forecasts is not fully responding to user application necessities. Different approaches, including combination of different prognostic models, are used in forecast centers to increase the prediction skill for specific regions and globally. In the present study, two forecasting methods are considered which are exploited in operational practice of Hydrometeorological Center of Russia. One of them is synoptical-analogous method of forecasting of surface air temperature at monthly scale. Another one is dynamical system based on the global semi-Lagrangian model SL-AV, developed in collaboration of Institute of Numerical Mathematics and Hydrometeorological Centre of Russia. The seasonal version of this model has been used to issue global and regional forecasts at monthly-seasonal time scales. This study presents results of the evaluation of surface air temperature forecasts generated with using above mentioned synoptical-statistical and dynamical models, and their combination to potentially increase skill score over Northern Eurasia. The test sample of operational forecasts is encompassing period from 2010 through 2015. The seasonal and interannual variability of skill scores of these methods has been discussed. It was noticed that the quality of all forecasts is highly dependent on the inertia of macro-circulation processes. The skill scores of forecasts are decreasing during significant alterations of synoptical fields for both dynamical and empirical schemes. Procedure of combination of forecasts from different methods, in some cases, has demonstrated its effectiveness. For this study the support has been provided by Grant of Russian Science Foundation (№14-37-00053).

  13. Impacts of ozone air pollution and temperature extremes on crop yields: Spatial variability, adaptation and implications for future food security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tai, Amos P. K.; Val Martin, Maria

    2017-11-01

    Ozone air pollution and climate change pose major threats to global crop production, with ramifications for future food security. Previous studies of ozone and warming impacts on crops typically do not account for the strong ozone-temperature correlation when interpreting crop-ozone or crop-temperature relationships, or the spatial variability of crop-to-ozone sensitivity arising from varietal and environmental differences, leading to potential biases in their estimated crop losses. Here we develop an empirical model, called the partial derivative-linear regression (PDLR) model, to estimate the spatial variations in the sensitivities of wheat, maize and soybean yields to ozone exposures and temperature extremes in the US and Europe using a composite of multidecadal datasets, fully correcting for ozone-temperature covariation. We find generally larger and more spatially varying sensitivities of all three crops to ozone exposures than are implied by experimentally derived concentration-response functions used in most previous studies. Stronger ozone tolerance is found in regions with high ozone levels and high consumptive crop water use, reflecting the existence of spatial adaptation and effect of water constraints. The spatially varying sensitivities to temperature extremes also indicate stronger heat tolerance in crops grown in warmer regions. The spatial adaptation of crops to ozone and temperature we find can serve as a surrogate for future adaptation. Using the PDLR-derived sensitivities and 2000-2050 ozone and temperature projections by the Community Earth System Model, we estimate that future warming and unmitigated ozone pollution can combine to cause an average decline in US wheat, maize and soybean production by 13%, 43% and 28%, respectively, and a smaller decline for European crops. Aggressive ozone regulation is shown to offset such decline to various extents, especially for wheat. Our findings demonstrate the importance of considering ozone regulation

  14. QCD bound states and their response to extremes of temperature and density

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maris, P.

    1998-01-01

    We describe the application of Dyson-Schwinger equations to the calculation of hadron observable. The studies at zero temperature (T) and quark chemical potential (μ) provide a springboard for the extension to finite-(T, μ). Our exemplars highlight that much of hadronic physics can be understood as simply a manifestation of the nonperturbative, momentum-dependent dressing of the elementary Schwinger functions in QCD

  15. The Effects of Forest Area Changes on Extreme Temperature Indexes between the 1900s and 2010s in Heilongjiang Province, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lijuan Zhang

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Land use and land cover changes (LUCC are thought to be amongst the most important impacts exerted by humans on climate. However, relatively little research has been carried out so far on the effects of LUCC on extreme climate change other than on regional temperatures and precipitation. In this paper, we apply a regional weather research and forecasting (WRF climate model using LUCC data from Heilongjiang Province, that was collected between the 1900s and 2010s, to explore how changes in forest cover influence extreme temperature indexes. Our selection of extreme high, low, and daily temperature indexes for analysis in this study enables the calculation of a five-year numerical integration trail with changing forest space. Results indicate that the total forested area of Heilongjiang Province decreased by 28% between the 1900s and 2010s. This decrease is most marked in the western, southwestern, and northeastern parts of the province. Our results also reveal a remarkable correlation between change in forested area and extreme high and low temperature indexes. Further analysis enabled us to determine that the key factor explaining increases in extreme high temperature indexes (i.e., calculated using the number of warm days, warm nights, as well as tropical nights, and summer days is decreasing forest area; data also showed that this factor caused a decrease in extreme low temperature indexes (i.e., calculated using the number of cold days and cold nights, as well as frost days, and ice days and an increase in the maximum value of daily minimum temperature. Spatial data demonstrated that there is a significant correlation between forest-to-farmland conversion and extreme temperature indexes throughout most of our study period. Spatial data demonstrated that there is a significant correlation between forest-to-farmland conversion and extreme temperature indexes throughout most of our study period. Positive correlations are also present between

  16. Advancements in the Design and Fabrication of Ultrasound Transducers for Extreme Temperatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bosyj, Christopher

    An ultrasound transducer for operation from room temperature to 800 °C is developed. The device includes a lithium niobate piezoelectric crystal, a porous zirconia attenuative backing layer, and a quarter wavelength matching layer. The manufacturing procedure for porous zirconia is optimized by adjusting pore size and forming pressure to yield good acoustic performance and mechanical integrity. Several acoustic coupling methods are evaluated. A novel silver-copper braze and an aluminum-based braze are found to be suitable at elevated temperatures. Several materials are evaluated for their performance as a quarter wavelength matching layer in the transducer stack. The use of either a nickel-chromium or stainless steel matching layer is established in place of ceramic components. Equipment limitations prevent evaluation at 800 °C, though ultrasound transmission is theoretically achievable with the devices established by this study. Reliable high-amplitude, wide-bandwidth ultrasound transmission is achieved from room temperature to 600 °C with two transducer variants.

  17. Ultras-stable Physical Vapor Deposited Amorphous Teflon Films with Extreme Fictive Temperature Reduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKenna, Gregory; Yoon, Heedong; Koh, Yung; Simon, Sindee

    In the present work, we have produced highly stable amorphous fluoropolymer (Teflon AF® 1600) films to study the calorimetric and relaxation behavior in the deep in the glassy regime. Physical vapor deposition (PVD) was used to produce 110 to 700 nm PVD films with substrate temperature ranging from 0.70 Tg to 0.90 Tg. Fictive temperature (Tf) was measured using Flash DSC with 600 K/s heating and cooling rates. Consistent with prior observations for small molecular weight glasses, large enthalpy overshoots were observed in the stable amorphous Teflon films. The Tf reduction for the stable Teflon films deposited in the vicinity of 0.85 Tg was approximately 70 K compared to the Tgof the rejuvenated system. The relaxation behavior of stable Teflon films was measured using the TTU bubble inflation technique and following Struik's protocol in the temperature range from Tf to Tg. The results show that the relaxation time decreases with increasing aging time implying that devitrification is occurring in this regime.

  18. Efficient p-n junction-based thermoelectric generator that can operate at extreme temperature conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chavez, Ruben; Angst, Sebastian; Hall, Joseph; Maculewicz, Franziska; Stoetzel, Julia; Wiggers, Hartmut; Thanh Hung, Le; Van Nong, Ngo; Pryds, Nini; Span, Gerhard; Wolf, Dietrich E.; Schmechel, Roland; Schierning, Gabi

    2018-01-01

    In many industrial processes, a large proportion of energy is lost in the form of heat. Thermoelectric generators can convert this waste heat into electricity by means of the Seebeck effect. However, the use of thermoelectric generators in practical applications on an industrial scale is limited in part because electrical, thermal, and mechanical bonding contacts between the semiconductor materials and the metal electrodes in current designs are not capable of withstanding thermal-mechanical stress and alloying of the metal-semiconductor interface when exposed to the high temperatures occurring in many real-world applications. Here we demonstrate a concept for thermoelectric generators that can address this issue by replacing the metallization and electrode bonding on the hot side of the device by a p-n junction between the two semiconductor materials, making the device robust against temperature induced failure. In our proof-of-principle demonstration, a p-n junction device made from nanocrystalline silicon is at least comparable in its efficiency and power output to conventional devices of the same material and fabrication process, but with the advantage of sustaining high hot side temperatures and oxidative atmosphere.

  19. Water radiolysis in extreme conditions of temperature and LET. Scavenging of HO. by Br- ions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saffre, Dimitri

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this thesis is to contribute to the understanding of the oxidation mechanism of Br - in which the HO . radical is involved. The HO . radiolytic yield is strongly connected with the oxidation yield of Br - , and therefore we have studied the influence of different physical and chemical parameters on this global yield: temperature, LET, dose rate, pH, saturation gas. The solutions have been irradiated with 4 types of ionizing rays: X-rays (from 13 to 18 keV), electrons (from 7 to 10 MeV), C 6+ -ions beam of 975 MeV and He 2+ -ions beam of 70 MeV. The development of an optical autoclave with solution flow, compatible with high LET ionizing rays has allowed us conduct the first experiments at constant high LET and high temperature. This cell has turned out to be compatible with the picosecond pump-probe experiments performed with the ELYSE accelerator. The HO . scavenging yield has been, therefore, estimated at both high LET and high temperature. A better understanding of the Br - oxidation mechanism has been achieved, in acid medium, in particular, by comparing the kinetics results with Monte Carlo Simulations for time scales inferior to the microsecond and with Chemsimul for the stable products (Br 2 .- and Br 3 - formations). (author) [fr

  20. Efficient p-n junction-based thermoelectric generator that can operate at extreme temperature conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chavez, Ruben; Angst, Sebastian; Hall, Joseph

    2017-01-01

    In many industrial processes a large proportion of energy is lost in the form of heat. Thermoelectric generators can convert this waste heat into electricity by means of the Seebeck effect. However, the use of thermoelectric generators in practical applications on an industrial scale is limited...... in part because electrical, thermal, and mechanical bonding contacts between the semiconductor materials and the metal electrodes in current designs are not capable of withstanding thermal-mechanical stress and alloying of the metal-semiconductor interface when exposed to the high temperatures occurring...... in many real-world applications. Here we demonstrate a concept for thermoelectric generators that can address this issue by replacing the metallization and electrode bonding on the hot side of the device by a p-n junction between the two semiconductor materials, making the device robust against...

  1. Extremes of environmental temperature and the transfer of radioiodine into milk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lengemann, F.W.; Wentworth, R.A.

    1979-01-01

    Two goats were kept at 33 0 C and 5 0 C to determine the amount of radioiodine transferred to milk after an oral dose. At 33 0 C, 16.8% of the oral 125 I was in the milk as opposed to 2.6% at 5 0 C. This is a 6.5-fold difference and suggests difficulties for prediction equations based upon actual amounts of radioiodine secreted into milk. Using F values it was judged that the shape of the milk secretion curve was relatively the same between goats and temperatures. This suggests that prediction procedures based on the shape of the milk transfer curve could be more precise. (author)

  2. A new integrated and homogenized global monthly land surface air temperature dataset for the period since 1900

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Wenhui; Li, Qingxiang; Jones, Phil; Wang, Xiaolan L.; Trewin, Blair; Yang, Su; Zhu, Chen; Zhai, Panmao; Wang, Jinfeng; Vincent, Lucie; Dai, Aiguo; Gao, Yun; Ding, Yihui

    2018-04-01

    A new dataset of integrated and homogenized monthly surface air temperature over global land for the period since 1900 [China Meteorological Administration global Land Surface Air Temperature (CMA-LSAT)] is developed. In total, 14 sources have been collected and integrated into the newly developed dataset, including three global (CRUTEM4, GHCN, and BEST), three regional and eight national sources. Duplicate stations are identified, and those with the higher priority are chosen or spliced. Then, a consistency test and a climate outlier test are conducted to ensure that each station series is quality controlled. Next, two steps are adopted to assure the homogeneity of the station series: (1) homogenized station series in existing national datasets (by National Meteorological Services) are directly integrated into the dataset without any changes (50% of all stations), and (2) the inhomogeneities are detected and adjusted for in the remaining data series using a penalized maximal t test (50% of all stations). Based on the dataset, we re-assess the temperature changes in global and regional areas compared with GHCN-V3 and CRUTEM4, as well as the temperature changes during the three periods of 1900-2014, 1979-2014 and 1998-2014. The best estimates of warming trends and there 95% confidence ranges for 1900-2014 are approximately 0.102 ± 0.006 °C/decade for the whole year, and 0.104 ± 0.009, 0.112 ± 0.007, 0.090 ± 0.006, and 0.092 ± 0.007 °C/decade for the DJF (December, January, February), MAM, JJA, and SON seasons, respectively. MAM saw the most significant warming trend in both 1900-2014 and 1979-2014. For an even shorter and more recent period (1998-2014), MAM, JJA and SON show similar warming trends, while DJF shows opposite trends. The results show that the ability of CMA-LAST for describing the global temperature changes is similar with other existing products, while there are some differences when describing regional temperature changes.

  3. Tolerance to high temperature extremes in an invasive lace bug, Corythucha ciliata (Hemiptera: Tingidae, in subtropical China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rui-Ting Ju

    Full Text Available Biological invasions are predicted to be more frequent as climate change is increasing its positive impact on the prevalence of invasive exotic species. Success of insect invaders in different temperature zones is closely related to their tolerance to temperature extremes. In this study, we used an exotic lace bug (Corythucha ciliata as the study organism to address the hypotheses that an insect species invading a subtropical zone from temperate regions has a high capacity to survive and adapt to high temperatures, and that its thermal tolerance plays an important role in determining its seasonal abundance and geographic distribution. To test these hypotheses, the effects of heat shock on the survival and reproduction of C. ciliata adults were assessed in the laboratory. Adults were exposed to 26 (control, 35, 37, 39, 41, 43, and 45°C for 2 h, and then were transferred to 26°C. Heat-shock temperatures ranging from 35 to 41°C did not significantly affect survival pattern, longevity, and fecundity of adults, but heat shock at 43 and 45°C significantly reduced these traits. Exposing parent females to heat-shock treatments from 35 to 41°C did not significantly affect the hatching rate of their eggs, survival of the nymphs, and the proportion of female F(1 progeny, while no progeny were produced with treatments of 43 and 45°C. The results indicate that C. ciliata can tolerate high temperatures less than 41°C, which may contribute to its expansion into the lower latitudes in China where its hosts (Platanus trees are widely planted. Our findings have important implications for predicting seasonal abundance and understanding invasion mechanisms of this important urban invader under climate change.

  4. Tolerance to high temperature extremes in an invasive lace bug, Corythucha ciliata (Hemiptera: Tingidae), in subtropical China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ju, Rui-Ting; Gao, Lei; Zhou, Xu-Hui; Li, Bo

    2013-01-01

    Biological invasions are predicted to be more frequent as climate change is increasing its positive impact on the prevalence of invasive exotic species. Success of insect invaders in different temperature zones is closely related to their tolerance to temperature extremes. In this study, we used an exotic lace bug (Corythucha ciliata) as the study organism to address the hypotheses that an insect species invading a subtropical zone from temperate regions has a high capacity to survive and adapt to high temperatures, and that its thermal tolerance plays an important role in determining its seasonal abundance and geographic distribution. To test these hypotheses, the effects of heat shock on the survival and reproduction of C. ciliata adults were assessed in the laboratory. Adults were exposed to 26 (control), 35, 37, 39, 41, 43, and 45°C for 2 h, and then were transferred to 26°C. Heat-shock temperatures ranging from 35 to 41°C did not significantly affect survival pattern, longevity, and fecundity of adults, but heat shock at 43 and 45°C significantly reduced these traits. Exposing parent females to heat-shock treatments from 35 to 41°C did not significantly affect the hatching rate of their eggs, survival of the nymphs, and the proportion of female F(1) progeny, while no progeny were produced with treatments of 43 and 45°C. The results indicate that C. ciliata can tolerate high temperatures less than 41°C, which may contribute to its expansion into the lower latitudes in China where its hosts (Platanus trees) are widely planted. Our findings have important implications for predicting seasonal abundance and understanding invasion mechanisms of this important urban invader under climate change.

  5. Causes of global mean surface temperature slowdowns, trends and variations from months to a century, 1891-2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Folland, C. K.; Boucher, O.; Colman, A.; Parker, D. E.

    2017-12-01

    The recent slowdown in the warming of global mean surface temperature (GST) has highlighted the influences of natural variability. This talk discusses reconstructions of the variations of GST down to the monthly time scale since 1891 using monthly forcing data. We show that most of the variations in annual, and to some extent sub-annual, GST since 1891 can be reproduced skillfully from known forcing factors external and internal to the climate system. This includes the slowdown in warming over about 1998-2013 where reconstruction skill is particularly high down to the multi-monthly time scale. The relative contributions of the several key forcing factors to GST continually vary, but most of the net warming since 1891 is reconstructed to be attributable to the net forcing due to increasing greenhouse gases and anthropogenic aerosols. Separate analyses are carried out for three periods of GST slowdown:- 1896-1910, 1941-1976, together with 1998-2013 and some of its sub periods. We also study two periods where strong warming occurred, 1911-1940 and 1977-1997. Comparisons are made with the skill of average GST provided by 40 CMIP5 models. In the recent 1998-2013 slowdown, TSI forcing appears to have caused significant cooling, particularly over 2001-2010. This is additional to well documented cooling effects of an increased frequency of La Nina events, a negative Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and some increases in volcanic forcing. Although there are short-term features of the GST curve since 1891 that cannot be fully explained, the most serious disagreements between the reconstructions and observations occur in the Second World War, especially in 1944-1945. Here observed near worldwide SSTs may be biased significantly too warm. Despite this, our generally high reconstruction skill is consistent with a good understanding of the multiple causes of observed GST variations and the general veracity of the GST record since 1891.

  6. Deep Burn: Development of Transuranic Fuel for High-Temperature Helium-Cooled Reactors- Monthly Highlights September 2010

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Snead, Lance Lewis; Besmann, Theodore M.; Collins, Emory D.; Bell, Gary L.

    2010-01-01

    The DB Program monthly highlights report for August 2010, ORNL/TM-2010/184, was distributed to program participants by email on September 17. This report discusses: (1) Core and Fuel Analysis - (a) Core Design Optimization in the HTR (high temperature helium-cooled reactor) Prismatic Design (Logos), (b) Core Design Optimization in the HTR Pebble Bed Design (INL), (c) Microfuel analysis for the DB HTR (INL, GA, Logos); (2) Spent Fuel Management - (a) TRISO (tri-structural isotropic) repository behavior (UNLV), (b) Repository performance of TRISO fuel (UCB); (3) Fuel Cycle Integration of the HTR (high temperature helium-cooled reactor) - Synergy with other reactor fuel cycles (GA, Logos); (4) TRU (transuranic elements) HTR Fuel Qualification - (a) Thermochemical Modeling, (b) Actinide and Fission Product Transport, (c) Radiation Damage and Properties; (5) HTR Spent Fuel Recycle - (a) TRU Kernel Development (ORNL), (b) Coating Development (ORNL), (c) Characterization Development and Support, (d) ZrC Properties and Handbook; and (6) HTR Fuel Recycle - (a) Graphite Recycle (ORNL), (b) Aqueous Reprocessing, (c) Pyrochemical Reprocessing METROX (metal recovery from oxide fuel) Process Development (ANL).

  7. Factors affecting the thermal environment of Agassiz’s Desert Tortoise (Gopherus agassizii) cover sites in the Central Mojave Desert during periods of temperature extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mack, Jeremy S.; Berry, Kristin H.; Miller, David; Carlson, Andrea S.

    2015-01-01

    Agassiz's Desert Tortoises (Gopherus agassizii) spend >95% of their lives underground in cover sites that serve as thermal buffers from temperatures, which can fluctuate >40°C on a daily and seasonal basis. We monitored temperatures at 30 active tortoise cover sites within the Soda Mountains, San Bernardino County, California, from February 2004 to September 2006. Cover sites varied in type and structural characteristics, including opening height and width, soil cover depth over the opening, aspect, tunnel length, and surficial geology. We focused our analyses on periods of extreme temperature: in summer, between July 1 and September 1, and winter, between November 1 and February 15. With the use of multivariate regression tree analyses, we found cover-site temperatures were influenced largely by tunnel length and subsequently opening width and soil cover. Linear regression models further showed that increasing tunnel length increased temperature stability and dampened seasonal temperature extremes. Climate change models predict increased warming for southwestern North America. Cover sites that buffer temperature extremes and fluctuations will become increasingly important for survival of tortoises. In planning future translocation projects and conservation efforts, decision makers should consider habitats with terrain and underlying substrate that sustain cover sites with long tunnels and expanded openings for tortoises living under temperature extremes similar to those described here or as projected in the future.

  8. Extreme cosmos

    CERN Document Server

    Gaensler, Bryan

    2011-01-01

    The universe is all about extremes. Space has a temperature 270°C below freezing. Stars die in catastrophic supernova explosions a billion times brighter than the Sun. A black hole can generate 10 million trillion volts of electricity. And hypergiants are stars 2 billion kilometres across, larger than the orbit of Jupiter. Extreme Cosmos provides a stunning new view of the way the Universe works, seen through the lens of extremes: the fastest, hottest, heaviest, brightest, oldest, densest and even the loudest. This is an astronomy book that not only offers amazing facts and figures but also re

  9. The influence of green areas and roof albedos on air temperatures during extreme heat events in Berlin, Germany

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schubert, Sebastian; Grossmann-Clarke, Susanne [Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam (Germany)

    2013-04-15

    The mesoscale atmospheric model COSMO-CLM (CCLM) with the Double Canyon Effect Parametrization Scheme (DCEP) is applied to investigate possible adaption measures to extreme heat events (EHEs) for the city of Berlin, Germany. The emphasis is on the effects of a modified urban vegetation cover and roof albedo on near-surface air temperatures. Five EHEs with a duration of 5 days or more are identified for the period 2000 to 2009. A reference simulation is carried out for each EHE with current vegetation cover, roof albedo and urban canopy parameters (UCPs), and is evaluated with temperature observations from weather stations in Berlin and its surroundings. The derivation of the UCPs from an impervious surface map and a 3-D building data set is detailed. Characteristics of the simulated urban heat island for each EHE are analysed in terms of these UCPs. In addition, six sensitivity runs are examined with a modified vegetation cover of each urban grid cell by -25%, 5% and 15%, with a roof albedo increased to 0.40 and 0.65, and with a combination of the largest vegetation cover and roof albedo, respectively. At the weather stations' grid cells, the results show a maximum of the average diurnal change in air temperature during each EHE of 0.82 K and -0.48 K for the -25% and 15% vegetation covers, -0.50 K for the roof albedos of 0.65, and -0.63 K for the combined vegetation and albedo case. The largest effects on the air temperature are detected during midday. (orig.)

  10. Human impact parameterizations in global hydrological models improve estimates of monthly discharges and hydrological extremes: a multi-model validation study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Veldkamp, T I E; Zhao, F; Ward, P J; Moel, H de; Aerts, J C J H; Schmied, H Müller; Portmann, F T; Masaki, Y; Pokhrel, Y; Liu, X; Satoh, Yusuke; Gerten, Dieter; Gosling, S N; Zaherpour, J; Wada, Yoshihide

    2018-01-01

    Human activity has a profound influence on river discharges, hydrological extremes and water-related hazards. In this study, we compare the results of five state-of-the-art global hydrological models (GHMs) with observations to examine the role of human impact parameterizations (HIP) in the

  11. The significance of climate change in the Netherlands. An analysis of historical and future trends (1901-2020) in weather conditions, weather extremes and temperature-related impacts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Visser, H.

    2005-07-01

    A rigorous statistical analysis reveals changes in Dutch climate that are statistically significant over the last century. Annually averaged temperatures have increased by 1.5 about 0.5 degrees Centigrade; the number of summer days has roughly doubled from 14 about 5 to 27 about 9 days; annual precipitation has increased by 120 about 100 mm; and the number of extremely wet days has increased by about 40%, from 19 about 3 to 26 about 3 days. Several other changes in Dutch climate, such as spring temperatures rising more rapidly than winter temperatures, the increase of the coldest temperature in each year by 0.9 degrees Centigrade and the annual maximum day sum of precipitation, turn out to be not (yet) statistically significant. The changes in Dutch climate have already led to several statistically significant impacts. The length of the growing season has increased by nearly a month, and the number of heating-degree days, a measure for the energy needed for the heating of houses and buildings, has decreased by 14 about 5%. Projections of future temperature increase in 2020 based on the statistical analysis closely resemble projections based on climate models: temperatures continue to increase from 10.4 about 0.4 degrees Centigrade in 2003 to 10.7 about 0.6 degrees Centigrade in 2010 and 11.1 about 1.0 degrees Centigrade in 2020. The energy needed for heating of houses and buildings is expected to decrease further. This warming effect is expected to lower projections of future Dutch greenhouse-gas emissions by 3.5 Mton CO2 equivalents, which is relevant in the context of commitments under the Kyoto Protocol. Finally, over the course of the 20th century the chance on an 'Elfstedentocht', an outdoor skating event in the Netherlands, has decreased from once every five years to once every ten years. Even though this impact change is not yet statistically significant, it resides 'on the edge' of significance: within a few years more evidence may

  12. The influence of elevation, latitude and Arctic Oscillation on trends in temperature extremes over northeastern China, 1961-2011

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeng, Wei; Yu, Zhen; Li, Xilin

    2018-04-01

    Trend magnitudes of 14 indices of temperature extremes at 70 stations with elevations, latitude and Arctic Oscillation over northeast China during 1960-2011 are examined. There are no significant correlations between elevation and trend magnitudes with the exception of TXn (Min T max), TNn (Min T min), TR20 (tropical nights) and GSL (growing season length). Analysis of trend magnitudes by topographic type has a strong influence, which overrides that of degree of urbanization. By contrast, most of the temperature indices have stronger correlations with the latitude and Arctic Oscillation index. The correlations between the Arctic Oscillation index and percentile indices, including TX10p (cool days), TX90p (warm days), TN10p (cool nights), TN90p (warm nights), are not the same in different areas. To summarize, analysis of trend magnitudes by topographic type, the latitude and the Arctic Oscillation shows three factors to have a strong influence in this dataset, which overrides that of elevation and degree of urbanization.

  13. First-Order SPICE Modeling of Extreme-Temperature 4H-SiC JFET Integrated Circuits

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neudeck, Philip G.; Spry, David J.; Chen, Liang-Yu

    2016-01-01

    A separate submission to this conference reports that 4H-SiC Junction Field Effect Transistor (JFET) digital and analog Integrated Circuits (ICs) with two levels of metal interconnect have reproducibly demonstrated electrical operation at 500 C in excess of 1000 hours. While this progress expands the complexity and durability envelope of high temperature ICs, one important area for further technology maturation is the development of reasonably accurate and accessible computer-aided modeling and simulation tools for circuit design of these ICs. Towards this end, we report on development and verification of 25 C to 500 C SPICE simulation models of first order accuracy for this extreme-temperature durable 4H-SiC JFET IC technology. For maximum availability, the JFET IC modeling is implemented using the baseline-version SPICE NMOS LEVEL 1 model that is common to other variations of SPICE software and importantly includes the body-bias effect. The first-order accuracy of these device models is verified by direct comparison with measured experimental device characteristics.

  14. Effects of anthropogenic heat due to air-conditioning systems on an extreme high temperature event in Hong Kong

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Y.; Li, Y.; Di Sabatino, S.; Martilli, A.; Chan, P. W.

    2018-03-01

    Anthropogenic heat flux is the heat generated by human activities in the urban canopy layer, which is considered the main contributor to the urban heat island (UHI). The UHI can in turn increase the use and energy consumption of air-conditioning systems. In this study, two effective methods for water-cooling air-conditioning systems in non-domestic areas, including the direct cooling system and central piped cooling towers (CPCTs), are physically based, parameterized, and implemented in a weather research and forecasting model at the city scale of Hong Kong. An extreme high temperature event (June 23-28, 2016) in the urban areas was examined, and we assessed the effects on the surface thermal environment, the interaction of sea-land breeze circulation and urban heat island circulation, boundary layer dynamics, and a possible reduction of energy consumption. The results showed that both water-cooled air-conditioning systems could reduce the 2 m air temperature by around 0.5 °C-0.8 °C during the daytime, and around 1.5 °C around 7:00-8:00 pm when the planetary boundary layer (PBL) height was confined to a few hundred meters. The CPCT contributed around 80%-90% latent heat flux and significantly increased the water vapor mixing ratio in the atmosphere by around 0.29 g kg-1 on average. The implementation of the two alternative air-conditioning systems could modify the heat and momentum of turbulence, which inhibited the evolution of the PBL height (a reduction of 100-150 m), reduced the vertical mixing, presented lower horizontal wind speed and buoyant production of turbulent kinetic energy, and reduced the strength of sea breeze and UHI circulation, which in turn affected the removal of air pollutants. Moreover, the two alternative air-conditioning systems could significantly reduce the energy consumption by around 30% during extreme high temperature events. The results of this study suggest potential UHI mitigation strategies and can be extended to

  15. Long-Term Trends, Variability and Extremes of In Situ Sea Surface Temperature Measured Along the Eastern Adriatic Coast and its Relationship to Hemispheric Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grbec, Branka; Matić, Frano; Beg Paklar, Gordana; Morović, Mira; Popović, Ružica; Vilibić, Ivica

    2018-02-01

    This paper examines long-term series of in situ sea surface temperature (SST) data measured at nine coastal and one open sea stations along the eastern Adriatic Sea for the period 1959-2015. Monthly and yearly averages were used to document SST trends and variability, while clustering and connections to hemispheric indices were achieved by applying the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Self-Organizing Maps (SOM) method. Both PCA and SOM revealed the dominance of temporal changes with respect to the effects of spatial differences in SST anomalies, indicating the prevalence of hemispheric processes over local dynamics, such as bora wind spatial inhomogeneity. SST extremes were connected with blocking atmospheric patterns. A substantial warming between 1979 and 2015, in total exceeding 1 °C, was preceded by a period with a negative SST trend, implying strong multidecadal variability in the Adriatic. The strongest connection was found between yearly SST and the East Atlantic (EA) pattern, while North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and East Atlantic/West Russia (EAWR) patterns were found to also affect February SST values. Quantification of the Adriatic SST and their connection to hemispheric indices allow for more precise projections of future SST, considered to be rather important for Adriatic thermohaline circulation, biogeochemistry and fisheries, and sensitive to ongoing climate change.

  16. A binary genetic programing model for teleconnection identification between global sea surface temperature and local maximum monthly rainfall events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Danandeh Mehr, Ali; Nourani, Vahid; Hrnjica, Bahrudin; Molajou, Amir

    2017-12-01

    The effectiveness of genetic programming (GP) for solving regression problems in hydrology has been recognized in recent studies. However, its capability to solve classification problems has not been sufficiently explored so far. This study develops and applies a novel classification-forecasting model, namely Binary GP (BGP), for teleconnection studies between sea surface temperature (SST) variations and maximum monthly rainfall (MMR) events. The BGP integrates certain types of data pre-processing and post-processing methods with conventional GP engine to enhance its ability to solve both regression and classification problems simultaneously. The model was trained and tested using SST series of Black Sea, Mediterranean Sea, and Red Sea as potential predictors as well as classified MMR events at two locations in Iran as predictand. Skill of the model was measured in regard to different rainfall thresholds and SST lags and compared to that of the hybrid decision tree-association rule (DTAR) model available in the literature. The results indicated that the proposed model can identify potential teleconnection signals of surrounding seas beneficial to long-term forecasting of the occurrence of the classified MMR events.

  17. Global observed long-term changes in temperature and precipitation extremes: A review of progress and limitations in IPCC assessments and beyond

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lisa V. Alexander

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC first attempted a global assessment of long-term changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in its Third Assessment Report in 2001. While data quality and coverage were limited, the report still concluded that heavy precipitation events had increased and that there had been, very likely, a reduction in the frequency of extreme low temperatures and increases in the frequency of extreme high temperatures. That overall assessment had changed little by the time of the IPCC Special Report on Extremes (SREX in 2012 and the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5 in 2013, but firmer statements could be added and more regional detail was possible. Despite some substantial progress throughout the IPCC Assessments in terms of temperature and precipitation extremes analyses, there remain major gaps particularly regarding data quality and availability, our ability to monitor these events consistently and our ability to apply the complex statistical methods required. Therefore this article focuses on the substantial progress that has taken place in the last decade, in addition to reviewing the new progress since IPCC AR5 while also addressing the challenges that still lie ahead.

  18. Differential Effects of Temperature Extremes on Hospital Admission Rates for Respiratory Disease between Indigenous and Non-Indigenous Australians in the Northern Territory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, Donna; Bambrick, Hilary; Tait, Peter; Goldie, James; Schultz, Rosalie; Webb, Leanne; Alexander, Lisa; Pitman, Andrew

    2015-01-01

    The health gap between Indigenous and non-Indigenous Australians may be exacerbated by climate change if temperature extremes have disproportionate adverse effects on Indigenous people. To explore this issue, we analysed the effect of temperature extremes on hospital admissions for respiratory diseases, stratified by age, Indigenous status and sex, for people living in two different climates zones in the Northern Territory during the period 1993–2011. We examined admissions for both acute and chronic respiratory diagnoses, controlling for day of the week and seasonality variables. Our analysis showed that: (1) overall, Indigenous hospital admission rates far exceeded non-Indigenous admission rates for acute and chronic diagnoses, and Top End climate zone admission rates exceeded Central Australia climate zone admission rates; (2) extreme cold and hot temperatures were associated with inconsistent changes in admission rates for acute respiratory disease in Indigenous and non-Indigenous children and older adults; and (3) no response to cold or hot temperature extremes was found for chronic respiratory diagnoses. These findings support our two hypotheses, that extreme hot and cold temperatures have a different effect on hospitalisations for respiratory disease between Indigenous and non-Indigenous people, and that these health risks vary between the different climate zones. We did not, however, find that there were differing responses to temperature extremes in the two populations, suggesting that any increased vulnerability to climate change in the Indigenous population of the Northern Territory arises from an increased underlying risk to respiratory disease and an already greater existing health burden. PMID:26633456

  19. Differential Effects of Temperature Extremes on Hospital Admission Rates for Respiratory Disease between Indigenous and Non-Indigenous Australians in the Northern Territory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Donna Green

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The health gap between Indigenous and non-Indigenous Australians may be exacerbated by climate change if temperature extremes have disproportionate adverse effects on Indigenous people. To explore this issue, we analysed the effect of temperature extremes on hospital admissions for respiratory diseases, stratified by age, Indigenous status and sex, for people living in two different climates zones in the Northern Territory during the period 1993–2011. We examined admissions for both acute and chronic respiratory diagnoses, controlling for day of the week and seasonality variables. Our analysis showed that: (1 overall, Indigenous hospital admission rates far exceeded non-Indigenous admission rates for acute and chronic diagnoses, and Top End climate zone admission rates exceeded Central Australia climate zone admission rates; (2 extreme cold and hot temperatures were associated with inconsistent changes in admission rates for acute respiratory disease in Indigenous and non-Indigenous children and older adults; and (3 no response to cold or hot temperature extremes was found for chronic respiratory diagnoses. These findings support our two hypotheses, that extreme hot and cold temperatures have a different effect on hospitalisations for respiratory disease between Indigenous and non-Indigenous people, and that these health risks vary between the different climate zones. We did not, however, find that there were differing responses to temperature extremes in the two populations, suggesting that any increased vulnerability to climate change in the Indigenous population of the Northern Territory arises from an increased underlying risk to respiratory disease and an already greater existing health burden.

  20. Exploiting the atmosphere's memory for monthly, seasonal and interannual temperature forecasting using Scaling LInear Macroweather Model (SLIMM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Del Rio Amador, Lenin; Lovejoy, Shaun

    2016-04-01

    . The corresponding space-time model (the ScaLIng Macroweather Model (SLIMM) is thus only multifractal in space where the spatial intermittency is associated with different climate zones. SLIMM exploits the power law (scaling) behavior in time of the temperature field and uses the long historical memory of the temperature series to improve the skill. The only model parameter is the fluctuation scaling exponent, H (usually in the range -0.5 - 0), which is directly related to the skill and can be obtained from the data. The results predicted analytically by the model have been tested by performing actual hindcasts in different 5° x 5° regions covering the planet using ERA-Interim, 20CRv2 and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis as reference datasets. We report maps of theoretical skill predicted by the model and we compare it with actual skill based on hindcasts for monthly, seasonal and annual resolutions. We also present maps of calibrated probability hindcasts with their respective validations. Comparisons between our results using SLIMM, some other stochastic autoregressive model, and hindcasts from the Canadian Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System (CanSIPS) and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)'s model CFSv2, are also shown. For seasonal temperature forecasts, SLIMM outperforms the GCM based forecasts in over 90% of the earth's surface. SLIMM forecasts can be accessed online through the site: http://www.to_be_announced.mcgill.ca.

  1. Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in western central Africa, Guinea Conakry, and Zimbabwe, 1955-2006

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aguilar, E.; Aziz Barry, A.; Brunet, M.; Ekang, L.; Fernandes, A.; Massoukina, M.; Mbah, J.; Mhanda, A.; Do Nascimento, D. J.; Peterson, T. C.; Thamba Umba, O.; Tomou, M.; Zhang, X.

    2009-01-01

    Understanding how extremes are changing globally, regionally, and locally is an important first step for planning appropriate adaptation measures, as changes in extremes have major impacts. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's synthesis of global extremes was not able to say anything about western central Africa, as no analysis of the region was available nor was there an adequate internationally exchanged long-term daily data set available to use for analysis of extremes. This paper presents the first analysis of extremes in this climatically important region along with analysis of Guinea Conakry and Zimbabwe. As per many other parts of the world, the analysis shows a decrease in cold extremes and an increase in warm extremes. However, while the majority of the analyzed world has shown an increase in heavy precipitation over the last half century, central Africa showed a decrease. Furthermore, the companion analysis of Guinea Conakry and Zimbabwe showed no significant increases.

  2. Effect of Maternal Smoking on Plasma and Urinary Measures of Vitamin E Isoforms in the First Month after Extreme Preterm Birth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stone, Cosby; Qiu, Yunping; Kurland, Irwin J; Slaughter, James C; Moore, Paul; Cook-Mills, Joan; Hartert, Tina; Aschner, Judy L

    2018-06-01

    We examined the effect of maternal smoking on plasma and urinary levels of vitamin E isoforms in preterm infants. Maternal smoking during pregnancy decreased infant plasma alpha- and gamma-tocopherol concentrations at 1 week and 4 weeks, with 45% of infants of smokers deficient in alpha-tocopherol at 1 month after birth. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Advancing of Land Surface Temperature Retrieval Using Extreme Learning Machine and Spatio-Temporal Adaptive Data Fusion Algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yang Bai

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available As a critical variable to characterize the biophysical processes in ecological environment, and as a key indicator in the surface energy balance, evapotranspiration and urban heat islands, Land Surface Temperature (LST retrieved from Thermal Infra-Red (TIR images at both high temporal and spatial resolution is in urgent need. However, due to the limitations of the existing satellite sensors, there is no earth observation which can obtain TIR at detailed spatial- and temporal-resolution simultaneously. Thus, several attempts of image fusion by blending the TIR data from high temporal resolution sensor with data from high spatial resolution sensor have been studied. This paper presents a novel data fusion method by integrating image fusion and spatio-temporal fusion techniques, for deriving LST datasets at 30 m spatial resolution from daily MODIS image and Landsat ETM+ images. The Landsat ETM+ TIR data were firstly enhanced based on extreme learning machine (ELM algorithm using neural network regression model, from 60 m to 30 m resolution. Then, the MODIS LST and enhanced Landsat ETM+ TIR data were fused by Spatio-temporal Adaptive Data Fusion Algorithm for Temperature mapping (SADFAT in order to derive high resolution synthetic data. The synthetic images were evaluated for both testing and simulated satellite images. The average difference (AD and absolute average difference (AAD are smaller than 1.7 K, where the correlation coefficient (CC and root-mean-square error (RMSE are 0.755 and 1.824, respectively, showing that the proposed method enhances the spatial resolution of the predicted LST images and preserves the spectral information at the same time.

  4. Recurrence quantification analysis of extremes of maximum and minimum temperature patterns for different climate scenarios in the Mesochora catchment in Central-Western Greece

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panagoulia, Dionysia; Vlahogianni, Eleni I.

    2018-06-01

    A methodological framework based on nonlinear recurrence analysis is proposed to examine the historical data evolution of extremes of maximum and minimum daily mean areal temperature patterns over time under different climate scenarios. The methodology is based on both historical data and atmospheric General Circulation Model (GCM) produced climate scenarios for the periods 1961-2000 and 2061-2100 which correspond to 1 × CO2 and 2 × CO2 scenarios. Historical data were derived from the actual daily observations coupled with atmospheric circulation patterns (CPs). The dynamics of the temperature was reconstructed in the phase-space from the time series of temperatures. The statistically comparing different temperature patterns were based on some discriminating statistics obtained by the Recurrence Quantification Analysis (RQA). Moreover, the bootstrap method of Schinkel et al. (2009) was adopted to calculate the confidence bounds of RQA parameters based on a structural preserving resampling. The overall methodology was implemented to the mountainous Mesochora catchment in Central-Western Greece. The results reveal substantial similarities between the historical maximum and minimum daily mean areal temperature statistical patterns and their confidence bounds, as well as the maximum and minimum temperature patterns in evolution under the 2 × CO2 scenario. A significant variability and non-stationary behaviour characterizes all climate series analyzed. Fundamental differences are produced from the historical and maximum 1 × CO2 scenarios, the maximum 1 × CO2 and minimum 1 × CO2 scenarios, as well as the confidence bounds for the two CO2 scenarios. The 2 × CO2 scenario reflects the strongest shifts in intensity, duration and frequency in temperature patterns. Such transitions can help the scientists and policy makers to understand the effects of extreme temperature changes on water resources, economic development, and health of ecosystems and hence to proceed to

  5. Cooking quality properties and free and bound phenolics content of brown, black, and red rice grains stored at different temperatures for six months.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ziegler, Valmor; Ferreira, Cristiano Dietrich; Hoffmann, Jessica Fernanda; Chaves, Fábio Clasen; Vanier, Nathan Levien; de Oliveira, Maurício; Elias, Moacir Cardoso

    2018-03-01

    The changes in cooking quality and phenolic composition of whole black and red rice grains stored during six months at different temperatures were evaluated. Brown rice with known cooking quality properties and low phenolic levels was used for purposes comparison. All rice genotypes were stored at 13% moisture content at temperatures of 16, 24, 32, and 40°C. Cooking time, hardness, free and bound phenolics, anthocyanins, proanthocyanidins, and free radical scavenging capacity were analysed. The traditional rice with brown pericarp exhibited an increase in cooking time and free phenolics content, while rice with black pericarp exhibited a reduction in cooking time after six months of storage at the highest studied temperature of 40°C. There as increases in ferulic acid levels occurred as a function of storage temperature. Red pericarp rice grains showed decreased antioxidant capacity against ABTS radical for the soluble phenolic fraction with increased time and storage temperature. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Satellite-derived ice data sets no. 2: Arctic monthly average microwave brightness temperatures and sea ice concentrations, 1973-1976

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parkinson, C. L.; Comiso, J. C.; Zwally, H. J.

    1987-01-01

    A summary data set for four years (mid 70's) of Arctic sea ice conditions is available on magnetic tape. The data include monthly and yearly averaged Nimbus 5 electrically scanning microwave radiometer (ESMR) brightness temperatures, an ice concentration parameter derived from the brightness temperatures, monthly climatological surface air temperatures, and monthly climatological sea level pressures. All data matrices are applied to 293 by 293 grids that cover a polar stereographic map enclosing the 50 deg N latitude circle. The grid size varies from about 32 X 32 km at the poles to about 28 X 28 km at 50 deg N. The ice concentration parameter is calculated assuming that the field of view contains only open water and first-year ice with an ice emissivity of 0.92. To account for the presence of multiyear ice, a nomogram is provided relating the ice concentration parameter, the total ice concentration, and the fraction of the ice cover which is multiyear ice.

  7. Spatiotemporal extremes of temperature and precipitation during 1960-2015 in the Yangtze River Basin (China) and impacts on vegetation dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cui, Lifang; Wang, Lunche; Qu, Sai; Singh, Ramesh P.; Lai, Zhongping; Yao, Rui

    2018-05-01

    Recently, extreme climate variation has been studied in different parts of the world, and the present study aims to study the impacts of climate extremes on vegetation. In this study, we analyzed the spatiotemporal variations of temperature and precipitation extremes during 1960-2015 in the Yangtze River Basin (YRB) using the Mann-Kendall (MK) test with Sen's slope estimator and kriging interpolation method based on daily precipitation (P), maximum temperature (T max), and minimum temperature (T min). We also analyzed the vegetation dynamics in the YRB during 1982-2015 using Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS) normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) datasets and investigated the relationship between temperature and precipitation extremes and NDVI using Pearson correlation coefficients. The results showed a pronounced increase in the annual mean maximum temperature (T nav) and mean minimum temperature (T xav) at the rate of 0.23 °C/10 years and 0.15 °C/10 years, respectively, during 1960-2015. In addition, the occurrence of warm days and warm nights shows increasing trends at the rate of 1.36 days/10 years and 1.70 days/10 years, respectively, while cold days and cold nights decreased at the rate of 1.09 days/10 years and 2.69 days/10 years, respectively, during 1960-2015. The precipitation extremes, such as very wet days (R95, the 95th percentile of daily precipitation events), very wet day precipitation (R95p, the number of days with rainfall above R95), rainstorm (R50, the number of days with rainfall above 50 mm), and maximum 1-day precipitation (RX1day), all show pronounced increasing trends during 1960-2015. In general, annual mean NDVI over the whole YRB increased at the rate of 0.01/10 years during 1982-2015, with an increasing transition around 1994. Spatially, annual mean NDVI increased in the northern, eastern, and parts of southwestern YRB, while it decreased in the YRD and parts of southern YRB during 1982-2015. The correlation

  8. The Effects of Data Gaps on the Calculated Monthly Mean Maximum and Minimum Temperatures in the Continental United States: A Spatial and Temporal Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stooksbury, David E.; Idso, Craig D.; Hubbard, Kenneth G.

    1999-05-01

    Gaps in otherwise regularly scheduled observations are often referred to as missing data. This paper explores the spatial and temporal impacts that data gaps in the recorded daily maximum and minimum temperatures have on the calculated monthly mean maximum and minimum temperatures. For this analysis 138 climate stations from the United States Historical Climatology Network Daily Temperature and Precipitation Data set were selected. The selected stations had no missing maximum or minimum temperature values during the period 1951-80. The monthly mean maximum and minimum temperatures were calculated for each station for each month. For each month 1-10 consecutive days of data from each station were randomly removed. This was performed 30 times for each simulated gap period. The spatial and temporal impact of the 1-10-day data gaps were compared. The influence of data gaps is most pronounced in the continental regions during the winter and least pronounced in the southeast during the summer. In the north central plains, 10-day data gaps during January produce a standard deviation value greater than 2°C about the `true' mean. In the southeast, 10-day data gaps in July produce a standard deviation value less than 0.5°C about the mean. The results of this study will be of value in climate variability and climate trend research as well as climate assessment and impact studies.

  9. Short communication: Changes in body temperature of calves up to 2 months of age as affected by time of day, age, and ambient temperature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, T M; Bateman, H G; Suarez-Mena, F X; Dennis, T S; Schlotterbeck, R L

    2016-11-01

    Extensive measurements of calf body temperature are limited in the literature. In this study, body temperatures were collected by taping a data logger to the skin over the tail vein opposing the rectum of Holstein calves between 4 and 60d of age during 3 different periods of the summer and fall. The summer period was separated into moderate (21-33°C average low to high) and hot (25-37°C) periods, whereas the fall exhibited cool (11-19°C) ambient temperatures. Tail temperatures were compared in a mixed model ANOVA using ambient temperature, age of calf, and time of day (10-min increments) as fixed effects and calf as a random effect. Measures within calf were modeled as repeated effects of type autoregressive 1. Calf temperature increased 0.0325°C (±0.00035) per 1°C increase in ambient temperature. Body temperature varied in a distinct, diurnal pattern with time of day, with body temperatures being lowest around 0800h and highest between 1700 and 2200h. During periods of hot weather, the highest calf temperature was later in the day (~2200h). Calf minimum, maximum, and average body temperatures were all higher in hot than in moderate periods and higher in moderate than in cool periods. Copyright © 2016 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Analysis of monthly, winter, and annual temperatures in Zagreb, Croatia, from 1864 to 2010: the 7.7-year cycle and the North Atlantic Oscillation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sen, Asok K.; Ogrin, Darko

    2016-02-01

    Long instrumental records of meteorological variables such as temperature and precipitation are very useful for studying regional climate in the past, present, and future. They can also be useful for understanding the influence of large-scale atmospheric circulation processes on the regional climate. This paper investigates the monthly, winter, and annual temperature time series obtained from the instrumental records in Zagreb, Croatia, for the period 1864-2010. Using wavelet analysis, the dominant modes of variability in these temperature series are identified, and the time intervals over which these modes may persist are delineated. The results reveal that all three temperature records exhibit low-frequency variability with a dominant periodicity at around 7.7 years. The 7.7-year cycle has also been observed in the temperature data recorded at several other stations in Europe, especially in Northern and Western Europe, and may be linked to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and/or solar/geomagnetic activity.

  11. Assessing the impact of extreme air temperature on fruit trees by modeling weather dependent phenology with variety-specific thermal requirements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alfieri, Silvia Maria; De Lorenzi, Francesca; Missere, Daniele; Buscaroli, Claudio; Menenti, Massimo

    2013-04-01

    Extremely high and extremely low temperature may have a terminal impact on the productivity of fruit tree if occurring at critical phases of development. Notorious examples are frost during flowering or extremely high temperature during fruit setting. The dates of occurrence of such critical phenological stages depend on the weather history from the start of the yearly development cycle in late autumn, thus the impact of climate extremes can only be evaluated correctly if the phenological development is modeled taking into account the weather history of the specific year being evaluated. Climate change impact may lead to a shift in timing of phenological stages and change in the duration of vegetative and reproductive phases. A changing climate can also exhibit a greater climatic variability producing quite large changes in the frequency of extreme climatic events. We propose a two-stage approach to evaluate the impact of predicted future climate on the productivity of fruit trees. The phenological development is modeled using phase - specific thermal times and variety specific thermal requirements for several cultivars of pear, apricot and peach. These requirements were estimated using phenological observations over several years in Emilia Romagna region and scientific literature. We calculated the dates of start and end of rest completion, bud swell, flowering, fruit setting and ripening stages , from late autumn through late summer. Then phase-specific minimum and maximum cardinal temperature were evaluated for present and future climate to estimate how frequently they occur during any critically sensitive phenological phase. This analysis has been done for past climate (1961 - 1990) and fifty realizations of a year representative of future climate (2021 - 2050). A delay in rest completion of about 10-20 days has been predicted for future climate for most of the cultivars. On the other hand the predicted rise in air temperature causes an earlier development of

  12. Extremely Low Birth Weight Preterm Infants Lack Vasomotor Response in Relationship to Cold Body Temperatures at Birth

    OpenAIRE

    Knobel, Robin B.; Holditch-Davis, Diane; Schwartz, Todd A.; Wimmer, John E.

    2009-01-01

    Objective This study evaluated peripheral vasoconstriction in ELBW infants when body temperature decreased during the first 12-hours of life. Design An exploratory, within-subjects design with 10 ELBW infants. Abdominal and foot temperatures were measured every minute. Peripheral vasoconstriction (abdominal > peripheral temperature by 2? C) and abdominal-peripheral temperature difference were also evaluated. Results Abdominal and peripheral temperatures were significantly correlated within ea...

  13. The role of horizontal thermal advection in regulating wintertime mean and extreme temperatures over the central United States during the past and future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, F.; Vavrus, S. J.

    2017-12-01

    Horizontal temperature advection plays an especially prominent role in affecting winter climate over continental interiors, where both climatological conditions and extreme weather are strongly regulated by transport of remote air masses. Central North America is one such region, and it experienced a major cold-air outbreak (CAO) a few years ago that some have related to amplified Arctic warming. Despite the known importance of dynamics in shaping the winter climate of this sector and the potential for climate change to modify heat transport, limited attention has been paid to the regional impact of thermal advection. Here, we use a reanalysis product and output from the Community Earth System Model's Large Ensemble to quantify the roles of zonal and meridional temperature advection over the central U. S. during winter, both in the late 20th and 21st centuries. We frame our findings as a "tug of war" between opposing influences of the two advection components and between these dynamical forcings vs. thermodynamic changes under greenhouse warming. For example, Arctic amplification leads to much warmer polar air masses, causing a moderation of cold-air advection into the central U. S., yet the model also simulates a wavier mean circulation and stronger northerly flow during CAOs, favoring lower regional temperatures. We also compare the predominant warming effect of zonal advection and overall cooling effect of meridional temperature advection as an additional tug of war. During both historical and future periods, zonal temperature advection is stronger than meridional advection over the Central U. S. The model simulates a future weakening of both zonal and meridional temperature advection, such that westerly flow provides less warming and northerly flow less cooling. On the most extreme warm days in the past and future, both zonal and meridional temperature advection have positive (warming) contributions. On the most extreme cold days, meridional cold air advection

  14. Coupled thermo-fluid stress analysis of Kambara Reactor with various anchors in the stirring of molten iron at extremely high temperatures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huang, De-Shau; Huang, Feng-Chi

    2014-01-01

    Kambara Reactors (KR) are commonly used to reduce sulfur content in steel making, achieving efficiency levels exceeding 85% at 1300 °C. Unfortunately, the operational lifespan of the KR impeller is somewhat limited due to fracturing of the refractory material via thermal shock, resulting in the penetration of molten iron into the inner core. Few studies have investigated the coupled thermo-fluid stress of KR impellers at extremely high temperatures. This study employed CFX and FEM to simulate and analyze the molten iron and the resulting thermal stress imposed on the KR impeller. Simulation results including flow field, temperature, and thermal stress under extremely high temperatures are in strong agreement with empirical data. V-type anchors for the KR impeller outperformed Y-type anchors. - Highlights: • A thermo-fluid coupling approach is proposed to analyze the thermal stress. • The temperature and stress of the impeller are 790 °C and 744 MPa at the final stage. • The highest temperatures occur at the tip of anchors, which causes material crack. • The thermal stress in impellers with Y-type anchors is greater than V-type anchors

  15. Impacts of projected maximum temperature extremes for C21 by an ensemble of regional climate models on cereal cropping systems in the Iberian Peninsula

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Ruiz-Ramos

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Crops growing in the Iberian Peninsula may be subjected to damagingly high temperatures during the sensitive development periods of flowering and grain filling. Such episodes are considered important hazards and farmers may take insurance to offset their impact. Increases in value and frequency of maximum temperature have been observed in the Iberian Peninsula during the 20th century, and studies on climate change indicate the possibility of further increase by the end of the 21st century. Here, impacts of current and future high temperatures on cereal cropping systems of the Iberian Peninsula are evaluated, focusing on vulnerable development periods of winter and summer crops. Climate change scenarios obtained from an ensemble of ten Regional Climate Models (multimodel ensemble combined with crop simulation models were used for this purpose and related uncertainty was estimated. Results reveal that higher extremes of maximum temperature represent a threat to summer-grown but not to winter-grown crops in the Iberian Peninsula. The study highlights the different vulnerability of crops in the two growing seasons and the need to account for changes in extreme temperatures in developing adaptations in cereal cropping systems. Finally, this work contributes to clarifying the causes of high-uncertainty impact projections from previous studies.

  16. Impacts of droughts and extreme-temperature events on gross primary production and ecosystem respiration: a systematic assessment across ecosystems and climate zones

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. von Buttlar

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Extreme climatic events, such as droughts and heat stress, induce anomalies in ecosystem–atmosphere CO2 fluxes, such as gross primary production (GPP and ecosystem respiration (Reco, and, hence, can change the net ecosystem carbon balance. However, despite our increasing understanding of the underlying mechanisms, the magnitudes of the impacts of different types of extremes on GPP and Reco within and between ecosystems remain poorly predicted. Here we aim to identify the major factors controlling the amplitude of extreme-event impacts on GPP, Reco, and the resulting net ecosystem production (NEP. We focus on the impacts of heat and drought and their combination. We identified hydrometeorological extreme events in consistently downscaled water availability and temperature measurements over a 30-year time period. We then used FLUXNET eddy covariance flux measurements to estimate the CO2 flux anomalies during these extreme events across dominant vegetation types and climate zones. Overall, our results indicate that short-term heat extremes increased respiration more strongly than they downregulated GPP, resulting in a moderate reduction in the ecosystem's carbon sink potential. In the absence of heat stress, droughts tended to have smaller and similarly dampening effects on both GPP and Reco and, hence, often resulted in neutral NEP responses. The combination of drought and heat typically led to a strong decrease in GPP, whereas heat and drought impacts on respiration partially offset each other. Taken together, compound heat and drought events led to the strongest C sink reduction compared to any single-factor extreme. A key insight of this paper, however, is that duration matters most: for heat stress during droughts, the magnitude of impacts systematically increased with duration, whereas under heat stress without drought, the response of Reco over time turned from an initial increase to a downregulation after about 2 weeks. This confirms

  17. Impacts of droughts and extreme-temperature events on gross primary production and ecosystem respiration: a systematic assessment across ecosystems and climate zones

    Science.gov (United States)

    von Buttlar, Jannis; Zscheischler, Jakob; Rammig, Anja; Sippel, Sebastian; Reichstein, Markus; Knohl, Alexander; Jung, Martin; Menzer, Olaf; Altaf Arain, M.; Buchmann, Nina; Cescatti, Alessandro; Gianelle, Damiano; Kiely, Gerard; Law, Beverly E.; Magliulo, Vincenzo; Margolis, Hank; McCaughey, Harry; Merbold, Lutz; Migliavacca, Mirco; Montagnani, Leonardo; Oechel, Walter; Pavelka, Marian; Peichl, Matthias; Rambal, Serge; Raschi, Antonio; Scott, Russell L.; Vaccari, Francesco P.; van Gorsel, Eva; Varlagin, Andrej; Wohlfahrt, Georg; Mahecha, Miguel D.

    2018-03-01

    Extreme climatic events, such as droughts and heat stress, induce anomalies in ecosystem-atmosphere CO2 fluxes, such as gross primary production (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (Reco), and, hence, can change the net ecosystem carbon balance. However, despite our increasing understanding of the underlying mechanisms, the magnitudes of the impacts of different types of extremes on GPP and Reco within and between ecosystems remain poorly predicted. Here we aim to identify the major factors controlling the amplitude of extreme-event impacts on GPP, Reco, and the resulting net ecosystem production (NEP). We focus on the impacts of heat and drought and their combination. We identified hydrometeorological extreme events in consistently downscaled water availability and temperature measurements over a 30-year time period. We then used FLUXNET eddy covariance flux measurements to estimate the CO2 flux anomalies during these extreme events across dominant vegetation types and climate zones. Overall, our results indicate that short-term heat extremes increased respiration more strongly than they downregulated GPP, resulting in a moderate reduction in the ecosystem's carbon sink potential. In the absence of heat stress, droughts tended to have smaller and similarly dampening effects on both GPP and Reco and, hence, often resulted in neutral NEP responses. The combination of drought and heat typically led to a strong decrease in GPP, whereas heat and drought impacts on respiration partially offset each other. Taken together, compound heat and drought events led to the strongest C sink reduction compared to any single-factor extreme. A key insight of this paper, however, is that duration matters most: for heat stress during droughts, the magnitude of impacts systematically increased with duration, whereas under heat stress without drought, the response of Reco over time turned from an initial increase to a downregulation after about 2 weeks. This confirms earlier theories that

  18. Quality and storage stability of extruded puffed corn-fish snacks during 6-month storage at ambient temperature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaviklo, Gholam Reza; Thorkelsson, Gudjon; Rafipour, Fereidon; Sigurgisladottir, Sjofn

    2011-03-30

    Cereal-based snacks are usually low in protein and other nutrients. Increased health awareness of consumers has led the food industry to develop fortified snacks with functional ingredients. Three types of extruded corn-fish snacks, containing 150 g kg(-1) carp mince and 150 g kg(-1) trout mince, 30 g kg(-1) freeze-dried saithe protein and a regular corn snack (control). were produced to study quality changes and storage stability of the products during 6-month storage at 27±2 °C. All products had the same level of water activity and proximate composition except for protein. Fortified snacks had a protein content of 93-98 g kg(-1) , compared with 65 g kg(-1) in the control. A significant increase was observed for peroxide value during storage (0.0 to 2.8 meq kg(-1)). Scores for attributes describing oxidation and off odors and flavors increased after 5-6 months' storage but attributes describing puffed corn snack odor and flavor did not change during storage of any of the products. Extrusion of corn grits with fish flesh/fish protein can be used to produce high-protein products that would be an option to provide nutrient snacks for consumers and to increase fish consumption. Copyright © 2011 Society of Chemical Industry.

  19. Extreme environment electronics

    CERN Document Server

    Cressler, John D

    2012-01-01

    Unfriendly to conventional electronic devices, circuits, and systems, extreme environments represent a serious challenge to designers and mission architects. The first truly comprehensive guide to this specialized field, Extreme Environment Electronics explains the essential aspects of designing and using devices, circuits, and electronic systems intended to operate in extreme environments, including across wide temperature ranges and in radiation-intense scenarios such as space. The Definitive Guide to Extreme Environment Electronics Featuring contributions by some of the world's foremost exp

  20. Quantitative methods for stochastic high frequency spatio-temporal and non-linear analysis: Assessing health effects of exposure to extreme ambient temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liss, Alexander

    Extreme weather events, such as heat waves and cold spells, cause substantial excess mortality and morbidity in the vulnerable elderly population, and cost billions of dollars. The accurate and reliable assessment of adverse effects of extreme weather events on human health is crucial for environmental scientists, economists, and public health officials to ensure proper protection of vulnerable populations and efficient allocation of scarce resources. However, the methodology for the analysis of large national databases is yet to be developed. The overarching objective of this dissertation is to examine the effect of extreme weather on the elderly population of the Conterminous US (ConUS) with respect to seasonality in temperature in different climatic regions by utilizing heterogeneous high frequency and spatio-temporal resolution data. To achieve these goals the author: 1) incorporated dissimilar stochastic high frequency big data streams and distinct data types into the integrated data base for use in analytical and decision support frameworks; 2) created an automated climate regionalization system based on remote sensing and machine learning to define climate regions for the Conterminous US; 3) systematically surveyed the current state of the art and identified existing gaps in the scientific knowledge; 4) assessed the dose-response relationship of exposure to temperature extremes on human health in relatively homogeneous climate regions using different statistical models, such as parametric and non-parametric, contemporaneous and asynchronous, applied to the same data; 5) assessed seasonal peak timing and synchronization delay of the exposure and the disease within the framework of contemporaneous high frequency harmonic time series analysis and modification of the effect by the regional climate; 6) modeled using hyperbolic functional form non-linear properties of the effect of exposure to extreme temperature on human health. The proposed climate

  1. Recent Intensified Winter Coldness in the Mid-High Latitudes of Eurasia and Its Relationship with Daily Extreme Low Temperature Variability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chuhan Lu

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Observational records in recent decades show a large-scale decrease in the cold-season temperature variance in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes under continuous global warming. However, severe low temperature events in winter frequently occurred in midlatitude Eurasia (MEA in the last decade. Here, we define a new coldness intensity (CI index for the near-surface based on the amplitude of daily anomalously cold temperatures in winter to demonstrate the CI of the variability of low temperature extremes. The results show that a sign-consistent mode dominates the CI variation in MEA, with a marked intensification during the last decade via empirical orthogonal function (EOF analysis. This leading mode is significantly related to the frequency of winter extreme events. The associated circulations are characterized by a remarkable anomalous anticyclone in Northwest Eurasia, which induced substantial cold advection in MEA. The widespread intensified CI in MEA is closely linked with strong surface anticyclones and synoptic blocking in the mid-high latitudes (25°E–85°E. Coincidently, positive phase shifts of the first two leading modes of the extratropical circulation, which feature similar blocking-like anomalies in the northwestern Eurasian subarctic, jointly play an important role in the recent frequency of severe winters.

  2. Taking water-based mud to extremes : new ultra-high temperature water-based mud development and applications in Europe

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Conn, L.; Cullum, D.; Ray, R.; Marinescu, P. [Mi SWACO, Calgary, AB (Canada)

    2008-07-01

    The design, development and field applications of an ultra-high temperature water-based mud used for drilling very deep and hot wells in continental Europe was described. Basin-centred gas production from unconventional tight sands represents a significant resources that may revive exploration and gas production. However, these accumulations lie deep down from normal-pressure reservoirs and the bottom hole static temperatures are greater than 200 degrees C. In addition, they host acid gases such as carbon dioxide and hydrogen sulfide. As such, there are severe limitations on the design and choice of drilling fluids. This paper also described the extensive laboratory work that is needed to optimize the formulation of drilling fluids for high densities and extreme high temperatures. The lessons learned were described with reference to critical engineering guidelines for running a water-based system in such harsh conditions. The effectiveness of new fluids in delivering optimum drilling in extreme high temperature high pressure (HTHP) conditions were demonstrated using a unique software program that predicted the rheological behaviour, pressure losses, equivalent circulating density and equivalent static density. The new water-based system proved to be effective in drilling HTHP wells in areas where invert emulsion drilling fluid systems are not allowed.

  3. Six Month In Situ High-Resolution Carbonate Chemistry and Temperature Study on a Coral Reef Flat Reveals Asynchronous pH and Temperature Anomalies.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David I Kline

    Full Text Available Understanding the temporal dynamics of present thermal and pH exposure on coral reefs is crucial for elucidating reef response to future global change. Diel ranges in temperature and carbonate chemistry parameters coupled with seasonal changes in the mean conditions define periods during the year when a reef habitat is exposed to anomalous thermal and/or pH exposure. Anomalous conditions are defined as values that exceed an empirically estimated threshold for each variable. We present a 200-day time series from June through December 2010 of carbonate chemistry and environmental parameters measured on the Heron Island reef flat. These data reveal that aragonite saturation state, pH, and pCO2 were primarily modulated by biologically-driven changes in dissolved organic carbon (DIC and total alkalinity (TA, rather than salinity and temperature. The largest diel temperature ranges occurred in austral spring, in October (1.5 - 6.6°C and lowest diel ranges (0.9 - 3.2°C were observed in July, at the peak of winter. We observed large diel total pH variability, with a maximum range of 7.7 - 8.5 total pH units, with minimum diel average pH values occurring during spring and maximum during fall. As with many other reefs, the nighttime pH minima on the reef flat were far lower than pH values predicted for the open ocean by 2100. DIC and TA both increased from June (end of Fall to December (end of Spring. Using this high-resolution dataset, we developed exposure metrics of pH and temperature individually for intensity, duration, and severity of low pH and high temperature events, as well as a combined metric. Periods of anomalous temperature and pH exposure were asynchronous on the Heron Island reef flat, which underlines the importance of understanding the dynamics of co-occurrence of multiple stressors on coastal ecosystems.

  4. Six Month In Situ High-Resolution Carbonate Chemistry and Temperature Study on a Coral Reef Flat Reveals Asynchronous pH and Temperature Anomalies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kline, David I; Teneva, Lida; Hauri, Claudine; Schneider, Kenneth; Miard, Thomas; Chai, Aaron; Marker, Malcolm; Dunbar, Rob; Caldeira, Ken; Lazar, Boaz; Rivlin, Tanya; Mitchell, Brian Gregory; Dove, Sophie; Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove

    2015-01-01

    Understanding the temporal dynamics of present thermal and pH exposure on coral reefs is crucial for elucidating reef response to future global change. Diel ranges in temperature and carbonate chemistry parameters coupled with seasonal changes in the mean conditions define periods during the year when a reef habitat is exposed to anomalous thermal and/or pH exposure. Anomalous conditions are defined as values that exceed an empirically estimated threshold for each variable. We present a 200-day time series from June through December 2010 of carbonate chemistry and environmental parameters measured on the Heron Island reef flat. These data reveal that aragonite saturation state, pH, and pCO2 were primarily modulated by biologically-driven changes in dissolved organic carbon (DIC) and total alkalinity (TA), rather than salinity and temperature. The largest diel temperature ranges occurred in austral spring, in October (1.5 - 6.6°C) and lowest diel ranges (0.9 - 3.2°C) were observed in July, at the peak of winter. We observed large diel total pH variability, with a maximum range of 7.7 - 8.5 total pH units, with minimum diel average pH values occurring during spring and maximum during fall. As with many other reefs, the nighttime pH minima on the reef flat were far lower than pH values predicted for the open ocean by 2100. DIC and TA both increased from June (end of Fall) to December (end of Spring). Using this high-resolution dataset, we developed exposure metrics of pH and temperature individually for intensity, duration, and severity of low pH and high temperature events, as well as a combined metric. Periods of anomalous temperature and pH exposure were asynchronous on the Heron Island reef flat, which underlines the importance of understanding the dynamics of co-occurrence of multiple stressors on coastal ecosystems.

  5. Impacts of temperature and lunar day on gene expression profiles during a monthly reproductive cycle in the brooding coral Pocillopora damicornis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crowder, Camerron M; Meyer, Eli; Fan, Tung-Yung; Weis, Virginia M

    2017-08-01

    Reproductive timing in brooding corals has been correlated to temperature and lunar irradiance, but the mechanisms by which corals transduce these environmental variables into molecular signals are unknown. To gain insight into these processes, global gene expression profiles in the coral Pocillopora damicornis were examined (via RNA-Seq) across lunar phases and between temperature treatments, during a monthly planulation cycle. The interaction of temperature and lunar day together had the largest influence on gene expression. Mean timing of planulation, which occurred at lunar days 7.4 and 12.5 for 28- and 23°C-treated corals, respectively, was associated with an upregulation of transcripts in individual temperature treatments. Expression profiles of planulation-associated genes were compared between temperature treatments, revealing that elevated temperatures disrupted expression profiles associated with planulation. Gene functions inferred from homologous matches to online databases suggest complex neuropeptide signalling, with calcium as a central mediator, acting through tyrosine kinase and G protein-coupled receptor pathways. This work contributes to our understanding of coral reproductive physiology and the impacts of environmental variables on coral reproductive pathways. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  6. Extremely low temperature behaviour of the thermodynamical properties of gaseous UF6 under an exact quantum approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Amarante, J.A.A. do.

    1979-10-01

    The thermodynamic functions of molecules of type XF 6 are calculated under an exact quantum-mechanical approach, which also yields general expressions valid for other types of molecules. The formalism is used to analyse the behavior of gaseous UF 6 at very low temperatures (around and below 1 0 K), where symmetry effects due to Pauli principle lead to results which are very markedly different from those obtained with the semi-classical approximation. It is shown that this approximation becomes sufficiently accurate only for temperatures about ten times the rotational temperature. (Author) [pt

  7. Study on Temperature and Synthetic Compensation of Piezo-Resistive Differential Pressure Sensors by Coupled Simulated Annealing and Simplex Optimized Kernel Extreme Learning Machine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Ji; Hu, Guoqing; Zhou, Yonghong; Zou, Chong; Peng, Wei; Alam Sm, Jahangir

    2017-04-19

    As a high performance-cost ratio solution for differential pressure measurement, piezo-resistive differential pressure sensors are widely used in engineering processes. However, their performance is severely affected by the environmental temperature and the static pressure applied to them. In order to modify the non-linear measuring characteristics of the piezo-resistive differential pressure sensor, compensation actions should synthetically consider these two aspects. Advantages such as nonlinear approximation capability, highly desirable generalization ability and computational efficiency make the kernel extreme learning machine (KELM) a practical approach for this critical task. Since the KELM model is intrinsically sensitive to the regularization parameter and the kernel parameter, a searching scheme combining the coupled simulated annealing (CSA) algorithm and the Nelder-Mead simplex algorithm is adopted to find an optimal KLEM parameter set. A calibration experiment at different working pressure levels was conducted within the temperature range to assess the proposed method. In comparison with other compensation models such as the back-propagation neural network (BP), radius basis neural network (RBF), particle swarm optimization optimized support vector machine (PSO-SVM), particle swarm optimization optimized least squares support vector machine (PSO-LSSVM) and extreme learning machine (ELM), the compensation results show that the presented compensation algorithm exhibits a more satisfactory performance with respect to temperature compensation and synthetic compensation problems.

  8. The effect of ambient air temperature and precipitation on monthly counts of salmonellosis in four regions of Kazakhstan, Central Asia, in 2000-2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grjibovski, A M; Kosbayeva, A; Menne, B

    2014-03-01

    We studied associations between monthly counts of laboratory-confirmed cases of salmonellosis, ambient air temperature and precipitation in four settings in Kazakhstan. We observed a linear association between the number of cases of salmonellosis and mean monthly temperature during the same months only in Astana: an increase of 1°C was associated with a 5·5% [95% confidence interval (CI) 2·2-8·8] increase in the number of cases. A similar association, although not reaching the level of significance was observed in the Southern Kazakhstan region (3·5%, 95% CI -2·1 to 9·1). Positive association with precipitation with lag 2 was found in Astana: an increase of 1 mm was associated with a 0·5% (95% CI 0·1-1·0) increase in the number of cases. A similar association, but with lag 0 was observed in Southern Kazakhstan region (0·6%, 95% CI 0·1-1·1). The results may have implications for the future patterns of salmonellosis in Kazakhstan with regard to climate change.

  9. Regional Projections of Extreme Apparent Temperature Days in Africa and the Related Potential Risk to Human Health

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Garland, Rebecca M

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Regional climate modelling was used to produce high resolution climate projections for Africa, under a “business as usual scenario”, that were translated into potential health impacts utilizing a heat index that relates apparent temperature...

  10. Streamline three-dimensional thermal model of a lithium titanate pouch cell battery in extreme temperature conditions with module simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaguemont, Joris; Omar, Noshin; Martel, François; Van den Bossche, Peter; Van Mierlo, Joeri

    2017-11-01

    In this paper, the development of a three-dimensional (3D) lithium titanium oxide (LTO) pouch cell is presented to first better comprehend its thermal behavior within electrified vehicle applications, but also to propose a strong modeling base for future thermal management system. Current 3D-thermal models are based on electrochemical reactions which are in need for elaborated meshing effort and long computational time. There lacks a fast electro-thermal model which can capture voltage, current and thermal distribution variation during the whole process. The proposed thermal model is a reduce-effort temperature simulation approach involving a 0D-electrical model accommodating a 3D-thermal model to exclude electrochemical processes. The thermal model is based on heat-transfer theory and its temperature distribution prediction incorporates internal conduction and heat generation effect as well as convection. In addition, experimental tests are conducted to validate the model. Results show that both the heat dissipation rate and surface temperature uniformity data are in agreement with simulation results, which satisfies the application requirements for electrified vehicles. Additionally, a LTO battery pack sizing and modeling is also designed, applied and displays a non-uniformity of the cells under driving operation. Ultimately, the model will serve as a basis for the future development of a thermal strategy for LTO cells that operate in a large temperature range, which is a strong contribution to the existing body of scientific literature.

  11. Non-Psychrophilic Methanogens Capable of Growth Following Long-Term Extreme Temperature Changes, with Application to Mars

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rebecca L. Mickol

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Although the martian environment is currently cold and dry, geomorphological features on the surface of the planet indicate relatively recent (<4 My freeze/thaw episodes. Additionally, the recent detections of near-subsurface ice as well as hydrated salts within recurring slope lineae suggest potentially habitable micro-environments within the martian subsurface. On Earth, microbial communities are often active at sub-freezing temperatures within permafrost, especially within the active layer, which experiences large ranges in temperature. With warming global temperatures, the effect of thawing permafrost communities on the release of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide and methane becomes increasingly important. Studies examining the community structure and activity of microbial permafrost communities on Earth can also be related to martian permafrost environments, should life have developed on the planet. Here, two non-psychrophilic methanogens, Methanobacterium formicicum and Methanothermobacter wolfeii, were tested for their ability to survive long-term (~4 year exposure to freeze/thaw cycles varying in both temperature and duration, with implications both for climate change on Earth and possible life on Mars.

  12. Non-Psychrophilic Methanogens Capable of Growth Following Long-Term Extreme Temperature Changes, with Application to Mars.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mickol, Rebecca L; Laird, Sarah K; Kral, Timothy A

    2018-04-23

    Although the martian environment is currently cold and dry, geomorphological features on the surface of the planet indicate relatively recent (<4 My) freeze/thaw episodes. Additionally, the recent detections of near-subsurface ice as well as hydrated salts within recurring slope lineae suggest potentially habitable micro-environments within the martian subsurface. On Earth, microbial communities are often active at sub-freezing temperatures within permafrost, especially within the active layer, which experiences large ranges in temperature. With warming global temperatures, the effect of thawing permafrost communities on the release of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide and methane becomes increasingly important. Studies examining the community structure and activity of microbial permafrost communities on Earth can also be related to martian permafrost environments, should life have developed on the planet. Here, two non-psychrophilic methanogens, Methanobacterium formicicum and Methanothermobacter wolfeii , were tested for their ability to survive long-term (~4 year) exposure to freeze/thaw cycles varying in both temperature and duration, with implications both for climate change on Earth and possible life on Mars.

  13. Future weather types and their influence on mean and extreme climate indices for precipitation and temperature in Central Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ulf Riediger

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available In Central Europe, the spatial and temporal distributions of precipitation and temperature are determined by the occurrence of major weather types. In this paper, we examine climate indices (i.e. mean values or hot, cold, wet and dry days for different weather types in a recent (1971–2000 and future climate (2070–2099. The weather types are classified objectively for the control run and for the A1B scenario with an ensemble of eight global climate simulations (GCM to be compared with different reanalyses. To derive climate indices, the high-resolution, regionalized reference dataset HYRAS and an ensemble of nine regional climate simulations (RCM are used. Firstly, the reliability of simulated weather patterns and their climate indices are tested in the control period. The reanalyses circulation climatology can be reproduced well by the GCM ensemble mean. For temperature and precipitation, each climate index is characterized and evaluated in terms of defined weather patterns. The comparison of HYRAS and RCM data show reliable mean temperature values with differences between weather classes by +2$+2$ to -6$-6$ °C during winter (13 to 19 °C in summer. The analysis of observed and simulated precipitation reveal that mean winter precipitation is significantly influenced by the direction of air flow, while in summer, mesoscale atmospheric patterns of cyclonic rotation play a larger role. Secondly, the analysis of potential future changes simulated by the RCM ensemble were able to demonstrate that weather type changes, superior climate trends (such as mean warming and their interaction lead to major changes for precipitation and temperature in Central Europe. While temperature differences between cold and warm weather types are nearly stable over time, the ensemble temperature changes (with a range of +2$+2$ to +4$+4$ °C reinforce warm/hot conditions in the future winter and summer. Milder, wetter winters can be explained by an increased

  14. Projected Changes in Temperature and Precipitation Extremes over China as Measured by 50-yr Return Values and Periods Based on a CMIP5 Ensemble

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Ying; Gao, Xuejie; Giorgi, Filippo; Zhou, Botao; Shi, Ying; Wu, Jie; Zhang, Yongxiang

    2018-04-01

    Future changes in the 50-yr return level for temperature and precipitation extremes over mainland China are investigated based on a CMIP5 multi-model ensemble for RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The following indices are analyzed: TXx and TNn (the annual maximum and minimum of daily maximum and minimum surface temperature), RX5day (the annual maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation) and CDD (maximum annual number of consecutive dry days). After first validating the model performance, future changes in the 50-yr return values and return periods for these indices are investigated along with the inter-model spread. Multi-model median changes show an increase in the 50-yr return values of TXx and a decrease for TNn, more specifically, by the end of the 21st century under RCP8.5, the present day 50-yr return period of warm events is reduced to 1.2 yr, while extreme cold events over the country are projected to essentially disappear. A general increase in RX5day 50-yr return values is found in the future. By the end of the 21st century under RCP8.5, events of the present RX5day 50-yr return period are projected to reduce to China. Changes in CDD-50 show a dipole pattern over China, with a decrease in the values and longer return periods in the north, and vice versa in the south. Our study also highlights the need for further improvements in the representation of extreme events in climate models to assess the future risks and engineering design related to large-scale infrastructure in China.

  15. Early and intensive nutritional strategy combining parenteral and enteral feeding promotes neurodevelopment and growth at 18months of corrected age and 3years of age in extremely low birth weight infants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ohnishi, Satoshi; Ichiba, Hiroyuki; Tanaka, Yuko; Harada, Sayaka; Matsumura, Hisako; Kan, Ayako; Asada, Yuki; Shintaku, Haruo

    2016-09-01

    To evaluate whether aggressive nutrition can improve long-term neurodevelopmental outcomes and growth in extremely low birth weight (ELBW) infants born appropriate for gestational age (AGA). This single-center cohort study included 137 ELBW AGA infants born in two epochs. The first group received standard nutrition (SN; n=79) consisting of amino acids started at 0.5g/kg/day on Day 4 of life and increased to 1.0g/kg/day. The second aggressive nutrition (AN) group received amino acids started at 1.5-2.0g/kg/day within 24h of life and increased to 3.5g/kg/day. Parenteral and enteral feedings were combined in both groups. Neurodevelopmental outcomes by the Kyoto Scale of Psychological Development and growth were followed up to 18months of corrected age or 3years of age and compared by univariate and multivariate analyses. Baseline characteristics were similar between the two groups. At 3years of age, AN children had a significantly greater mean value of head circumference, but not length or weight, than SN children (49.1 vs 48.0cm, p=0.014). The cognitive-adaptive (C-A) score in the AN group was also significantly higher than that in the SN group (98.3 vs 91.9 at 18months, p=0.039 and 89.5 vs 83.1 at 3years, p=0.047). AN infants born ≥26weeks of gestation were less likely to develop borderline disability in C-A, language-social and overall developmental scores compared to gestational age-matched SN infants. Parenteral and enteral AN after birth improved the long-term cognitive neurodevelopment in ELBW AGA infants, especially in those born ≥26weeks of gestational age, however results need to be confirmed in a larger, multi-site randomized trial. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Response to Extreme Temperatures of Mesoporous Silica MCM-41: Porous Structure Transformation Simulation and Modification of Gas Adsorption Properties.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Shenli; Perez-Page, Maria; Guan, Kelly; Yu, Erick; Tringe, Joseph; Castro, Ricardo H R; Faller, Roland; Stroeve, Pieter

    2016-11-08

    Molecular dynamics (MD) and Monte Carlo (MC) simulations were applied together for the first time to reveal the porous structure transformation mechanisms of mesoporous silica MCM-41 subjected to temperatures up to 2885 K. Silica was experimentally characterized to inform the models and enable prediction of changes in gas adsorption/separation properties. MD simulations suggest that the pore closure process is activated by a collective diffusion of matrix atoms into the porous region, accompanied by bond reformation at the surface. Degradation is kinetically limited, such that complete pore closure is postponed at high heating rates. We experimentally observe decreased gas adsorption with increasing temperature in mesoporous silica heated at fixed rates, due to pore closure and structural degradation consistent with simulation predictions. Applying the Kissinger equation, we find a strong correlation between the simulated pore collapse temperatures and the experimental values which implies an activation energy of 416 ± 17 kJ/mol for pore closure. MC simulations give the adsorption and selectivity for thermally treated MCM-41, for N 2 , Ar, Kr, and Xe at room temperature within the 1-10 000 kPa pressure range. Relative to pristine MCM-41, we observe that increased surface roughness due to decreasing pore size amplifies the difference of the absolute adsorption amount differently for different adsorbate molecules. In particular, we find that adsorption of strongly interacting molecules can be enhanced in the low-pressure region while adsorption of weakly interacting molecules is inhibited. This then results in higher selectivity in binary mixture adsorption in mesoporous silica.

  17. Temporal Changes in Mortality Related to Extreme Temperatures for 15 Cities in Northeast Asia: Adaptation to Heat and Maladaptation to Cold.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chung, Yeonseung; Noh, Heesang; Honda, Yasushi; Hashizume, Masahiro; Bell, Michelle L; Guo, Yue-Liang Leon; Kim, Ho

    2017-05-15

    Understanding how the temperature-mortality association worldwide changes over time is crucial to addressing questions of human adaptation under climate change. Previous studies investigated the temporal changes in the association over a few discrete time frames or assumed a linear change. Also, most studies focused on attenuation of heat-related mortality and studied the United States or Europe. This research examined continuous temporal changes (potentially nonlinear) in mortality related to extreme temperature (both heat and cold) for 15 cities in Northeast Asia (1972-2009). We used a generalized linear model with splines to simultaneously capture 2 types of nonlinearity: nonlinear association between temperature and mortality and nonlinear change over time in the association. We combined city-specific results to generate country-specific results using Bayesian hierarchical modeling. Cold-related mortality remained roughly constant over decades and slightly increased in the late 2000s, with a larger increase for cardiorespiratory deaths than for deaths from other causes. Heat-related mortality rates have decreased continuously over time, with more substantial decrease in earlier decades, for older populations and for cardiorespiratory deaths. Our findings suggest that future assessment of health effects of climate change should account for the continuous changes in temperature-related health risk and variations by factors such as age, cause of death, and location. © Crown copyright 2017.

  18. Evaluation of the Effect of Storage Temperature, Atmosphere and Packaging Materials on Some Properties of Carum copticum Fruits during Nine Months Storage

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    gonai baghdadi

    2018-03-01

    (at four levels: 0, 3, 6 and 9 months as sub plots were considered. Seed samples were taken randomly from each package at four times period. Essential oil percentage, seed weight, gas composition in packages with modified atmosphere and seed germination factors (seed germination percentage (SGP, germination rate (GR, mean germination time (MGT, and germination Index (GI were evaluated during this nine months Storage. Results and Discussion: The highest weight loss was 2/43% in the paper bags stored at 30°C at the fourth to sixth months especially in the fifth month. Aluminum foil package under vacuum condition stored at 30°C had the lowest weight and minimum weight changes during nine months of storage, so it was the best packages compared to others. The results show that Polyethylene-polyamide packages and Aluminum foil packages under vacuum condition are almost impermeable to air and moisture. Increasing weight at 20°C may be due to accumulation of water vapor from the respiration during early period of storage. Seed germination test provides an indication about seedling vigor as well as performance of seed in the field. In most cases, performance relates to the ability of seeds to germinate and produce a seedling that will emerge from the soil and development into a healthy vigorous plant. Packages with different combinations of gas (2% and 10% oxygen at 30°C,aluminum foil under vacuum condition and Polyethylene-polyamide packages with a gas composition of [98%N2 + 2%O2] at 20°C were packages with higher germination percentage after nine months storage. Based on this results, it appears that packaging materials and storage temperature did not show any significant difference on essential oil percentage and further changes in the amount of oil related to duration of storage. Kumar et al. (2013 showed that the essential oil content and composition were affected by harvest time and storage conditions. Kazaz et al. (2009 investigated the effect of different storage

  19. Comparison of regional and seasonal changes and trends in daily surface temperature extremes over India and its subregions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dimri, A. P.

    2018-04-01

    Regional changes in surface meteorological variables are one of the key issues affecting the Indian subcontinent especially in recent decades. These changes impact agriculture, health, water, etc., hence important to assess and investigate these changes. The Indian subcontinent is characterized by heterogeneous temperature regimes at regional and seasonal scales. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) observations are limited to recent decades as far as its spatial distribution is concerned. In particular, over Hilly region, these observations are sporadic. Due to variable topography and heterogeneous land use/land cover, it is complex to substantiate impacts. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA-Interim (ERA-I) reanalysis not only covers a larger spatial domain but also provides a greater number of inputs than IMD. This study used ERA-I in conjunction with IMD gridded data to provide a comparative assessment of changing temperature patterns over India and its subregions at both regional and seasonal scales. Warming patterns are observed in both ERA-I and IMD data sets. Cold nights decrease during winter; warm days increase and warm spell duration increased during winter could become a cause of concern for society, agriculture, socio-economic reasons, and health. Increasing warm days over the hilly regions may affect the corresponding snow cover and thus river hydrology and glaciological dynamics. Such changes during monsoon are slower, which could be attributed to moisture availability to dampen the temperature changes. On investigation and comparison thereon, the present study provisions usages of ERA-I-based indices for various impact and adaptation studies.

  20. TiFeCoNi oxide thin film - A new composition with extremely low electrical resistivity at room temperature

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang, Ya-Chu; Tsau, Chun-Huei; Yeh, Jien-Wei

    2011-01-01

    We show the electrical resistivity of a TiFeCoNi oxide thin film. The electrical resistivity of the TiFeCoNi thin film decreased sharply after a suitable period of oxidation at high temperature. The lowest resistivity of the TiFeCoNi oxide film was 35 ± 3 μΩ-cm. The low electrical resistivity of the TiFeCoNi oxide thin film was attributed to Ti, which is more reactive than the other elements, reacting with oxygen at the initial stage of annealing. The low resistivity is caused by the remaining electrons.

  1. Effect of Enhanced Air Temperature (extreme heat, and Load of Non-Linear Against the Use of Electric Power

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I Ketut Wijaya

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Usage Electric power is very easy to do, because the infrastructure for connecting  already available and widely sold. Consumption electric power is not accompanied by the ability to recognize electric power. The average increase of electricity power in Bali in extreme weather reaches 10% in years 2014, so that Bali suffered power shortages and PLN as the manager of electric power to perform scheduling on of electric power usage. Scheduling is done because many people use electric power as the load  of fan and Air Conditioner exceeding the previous time. Load of fan, air conditioning, and computers including non-linear loads which can add heat on the conductor of electricity. Non-linear load and hot weather can lead to heat on conductor so  insulation damaged  and cause electrical short circuit. Data of electric power obtained through questionnaires, surveys, measurement and retrieve data from various parties. Fires that occurred in 2014, namely 109 events, 44 is  event caused by an electric short circuit (approximately 40%. Decrease power factors can cause losses of electricity and hot. Heat can cause and adds heat on the  conductor electric. The analysis showed  understanding electric power of the average  is 27,700 with value between 20 to 40. So an understanding of the electrical power away from the understand so that many errors because of the act own. Installation tool ELCB very necessary but very necessary provide counseling   of electricity to the community.

  2. A novel visualisation tool for climate services: a case study of temperature extremes and human mortality in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lowe, R.; Ballester, J.; Robine, J.; Herrmann, F. R.; Jupp, T. E.; Stephenson, D.; Rodó, X.

    2013-12-01

    Users of climate information often require probabilistic information on which to base their decisions. However, communicating information contained within a probabilistic forecast presents a challenge. In this paper we demonstrate a novel visualisation technique to display ternary probabilistic forecasts on a map in order to inform decision making. In this method, ternary probabilistic forecasts, which assign probabilities to a set of three outcomes (e.g. low, medium, and high risk), are considered as a point in a triangle of barycentric coordinates. This allows a unique colour to be assigned to each forecast from a continuum of colours defined on the triangle. Colour saturation increases with information gain relative to the reference forecast (i.e. the long term average). This provides additional information to decision makers compared with conventional methods used in seasonal climate forecasting, where one colour is used to represent one forecast category on a forecast map (e.g. red = ';dry'). We use the tool to present climate-related mortality projections across Europe. Temperature and humidity are related to human mortality via location-specific transfer functions, calculated using historical data. Daily mortality data at the NUTS2 level for 16 countries in Europe were obtain from 1998-2005. Transfer functions were calculated for 54 aggregations in Europe, defined using criteria related to population and climatological similarities. Aggregations are restricted to fall within political boundaries to avoid problems related to varying adaptation policies between countries. A statistical model is fit to cold and warm tails to estimate future mortality using forecast temperatures, in a Bayesian probabilistic framework. Using predefined categories of temperature-related mortality risk, we present maps of probabilistic projections for human mortality at seasonal to decadal time scales. We demonstrate the information gained from using this technique compared to more

  3. IMFREX impact of the anthropic changes on the frequency of the extreme phenomena of the wind, the temperature and the rainfall. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2007-01-01

    The aim of Imfrex was to evaluate the impact of a climatic change on the frequency of extreme phenomena of wind and rainfall in France. The study is based on an hypothesis proposed by the GIEC and called scenario A2. A first simulation, low resolution 300 km, using a coupled model ocean-atmosphere allowed to provide an evolution scenario for the temperature of the sea surface and the ice field area. A second simulation, high resolution 50 km, provided a daily evolution of the climate during 140 years. Imfrex was organized in five work-packages: the constitution of the data base, the validation of the models, the direct approach the statistical approach and the dynamical approach. (A.L.B.)

  4. Temporal variations of electron density and temperature in Kr/Ne/H2 photoionized plasma induced by nanosecond pulses from extreme ultraviolet source

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saber, I.; Bartnik, A.; Wachulak, P.; Skrzeczanowski, W.; Jarocki, R.; Fiedorowicz, H.

    2017-06-01

    Spectral investigations of low-temperature photoionized plasmas created in a Kr/Ne/H2 gas mixture were performed. The low-temperature plasmas were generated by gas mixture irradiation using extreme ultraviolet pulses from a laser-plasma source. Emission spectra in the ultraviolet/visible range from the photoionized plasmas contained lines that mainly corresponded to neutral atoms and singly charged ions. Temporal variations in the plasma electron temperature and electron density were studied using different characteristic emission lines at various delay times. Results, based on Kr II lines, showed that the electron temperature decreased from 1.7 to 0.9 eV. The electron densities were estimated using different spectral lines at each delay time. In general, except for the Hβ line, in which the electron density decreased from 3.78 × 1016 cm-3 at 200 ns to 5.77 × 1015 cm-3 at 2000 ns, most of the electron density values measured from the different lines were of the order of 1015 cm-3 and decreased slightly while maintaining the same order when the delay time increased. The time dependences of the measured and simulated intensities of a spectral line of interest were also investigated. The validity of the partial or full local thermodynamic equilibrium (LTE) conditions in plasma was explained based on time-resolved electron density measurements. The partial LTE condition was satisfied for delay times in the 200 ns to 1500 ns range. The results are summarized, and the dominant basic atomic processes in the gas mixture photoionized plasma are discussed.

  5. Mandelbrot's Extremism

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beirlant, J.; Schoutens, W.; Segers, J.J.J.

    2004-01-01

    In the sixties Mandelbrot already showed that extreme price swings are more likely than some of us think or incorporate in our models.A modern toolbox for analyzing such rare events can be found in the field of extreme value theory.At the core of extreme value theory lies the modelling of maxima

  6. Extreme High-Temperature Events Over East Asia in 1.5°C and 2°C Warmer Futures: Analysis of NCAR CESM Low-Warming Experiments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Donghuan; Zhou, Tianjun; Zou, Liwei; Zhang, Wenxia; Zhang, Lixia

    2018-02-01

    Extreme high-temperature events have large socioeconomic and human health impacts. East Asia (EA) is a populous region, and it is crucial to assess the changes in extreme high-temperature events in this region under different climate change scenarios. The Community Earth System Model low-warming experiment data were applied to investigate the changes in the mean and extreme high temperatures in EA under 1.5°C and 2°C warming conditions above preindustrial levels. The results show that the magnitude of warming in EA is approximately 0.2°C higher than the global mean. Most populous subregions, including eastern China, the Korean Peninsula, and Japan, will see more intense, more frequent, and longer-lasting extreme temperature events under 1.5°C and 2°C warming. The 0.5°C lower warming will help avoid 35%-46% of the increases in extreme high-temperature events in terms of intensity, frequency, and duration in EA with maximal avoidance values (37%-49%) occurring in Mongolia. Thus, it is beneficial for EA to limit the warming target to 1.5°C rather than 2°C.

  7. Oceanographic Monthly Summary

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Oceanographic Monthly Summary contains sea surface temperature (SST) analyses on both regional and ocean basin scales for the Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian Oceans....

  8. Pulsed Laser Techniques in Laser Heated Diamond Anvil Cells for Studying Methane (CH4) and Water (H2O) at Extreme Pressures and Temperatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holtgrewe, N.; Lobanov, S.; Mahmood, M.; Goncharov, A. F.

    2017-12-01

    Scientific advancement in the fields of high pressure material synthesis and research on planetary interiors rely heavily on a variety of techniques for probing such extreme conditions, such as laser-heating diamond anvil cells (LHDACs) (Goncharov et al., J. Synch. Rad., 2009) and shock compression (Nellis et al., J. Chem. Phys., 2001/ Armstrong et al., Appl. Phys. Lett., 2008). However, certain chemical properties can create complications in the detection of such extreme states, for example the instability of energetic materials, and detection of these dynamic chemical states by time-resolved methods has proven to be valuable in exploring the kinetics of these materials. Current efforts at the Linac Coherent Light Source (LCLS) for exploring the transitions between different phases of condensed matter (Armstrong et. al., APS Mar. Meeting, 2017/ Radousky et al., APS Mar. Meeting, 2017), and X-ray synchrotron pulsed heating are useful techniques but require large facilities and are not always accessible. Instead, optical properties of materials can serve as a window into the state or structure of species through electronic absorption properties. Pump-probe spectroscopy can be used to detect these electronic properties in time and allow the user to develop a picture of complex dynamic chemical events. Here we present data acquired up to 1.5 megabar (Mbar) pressures and temperatures >3000 K using pulsed transmission/reflective spectroscopy combined with a pulsed LHDAC and time-resolved detection (streak camera) (McWilliams et. al., PNAS, 2015/ McWilliams et al., PRL, 2016). Time-resolved optical properties will be presented on methane (CH4) and water (H2O) at P-T conditions found in icy bodies such as Uranus and Neptune (Lee and Scandolo, Nature Comm., 2011). Our results show that the interiors of Uranus and Neptune are optically opaque at P-T conditions corresponding to the mantles of these icy bodies, which has implications for the unusual magnetic fields of these

  9. Stability of Zircon and Its Isotopic Ratios in High-Temperature Fluids: Long-Term (4 months Isotope Exchange Experiment at 850°C and 50 MPa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ilya N. Bindeman

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Stability of zircon in hydrothermal fluids and vanishingly slow rates of diffusion identify zircon as a reliable recorder of its formation conditions in recent and ancient rocks. Debate, however, persists on how rapidly oxygen and key trace elements (e.g., Li, B, Pb diffuse when zircon is exposed to silicate melt or hot aqueous fluids. Here, we report results of a nano- to micrometer-scale investigation of isotopic exchange using natural zircon from Mesa Falls Tuff (Yellowstone treated with quartz-saturated, isotopically (18O, D, 7Li, and 11B labeled water with a nominal δ18O value of +450%0 over 4 months at 850°C and 50 MPa. Frontside (crystal rim inwards δ18O depth profiling of zircon by magnetic sector SIMS shows initially high but decreasing 18O/16O over a ~130 nm non-Fickian profile, with a decay length comparable to the signal from surficial Au coating deposited onto zircon. In contrast, backside (crystal interior outwards depth profiling on a 2-3 μm thick wafer cut and thinned from treated zircon by focused ion beam (FIB milling lacks any significant increase in 18O/16O during penetration of the original surface layer. Near-surface time-of-flight (TOF-SIMS frontside profiles of uncoated zircon from 4-month and 1-day-long experiments as well as untreated zircons display similar enrichments of 18O over a distance of ~20 nm. All frontside 18O profiles are here interpreted as transient surface signals from nm-thick surface enrichment or contamination unrelated to diffusion. Likewise, frontside depth profiling of H, Li, and B isotopes are similar for long- and short-duration experiments. Additionally, surface U-Pb dating of zircon from the 4-month experiment returned U-Pb ages by depth profiling with ~1 μm penetration that were identical to untreated samples. Frontside and backside depth-profiling thus demonstrate that diffusive 18O enrichment in the presence of H2O is much slower than predicted from experiments in Watson and Cherniak

  10. Extreme Temperature Gearhead, Phase I

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — In response to the need for actuators, particularly, gear heads, that can operate in the harsh Venusian environment for extended periods of time, on the order of...

  11. Extreme Temperature Gearhead, Phase II

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — In response to the need for actuators that can operate in the harsh Venusian environment for extended periods of time, Honeybee Robotics conducted extensive research...

  12. Changes in the zonal mean flow, temperature, and planetary waves observed in the Northern Hemisphere mid-winter months during the last decades

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rakushina, E. V.; Ermakova, T. S.; Pogoreltsev, A. I.

    2018-06-01

    Four sets of data: the UK Met Office, Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA), Japanese 55-year Reanalysis data (JRA-55), and ERA-Interim data (ERA) have been used to estimate the climatic variability of the zonal mean flow, temperature, and Stationary Planetary Waves (SPW1, SPW2) from the troposphere up to the lower mesosphere levels. The composites of the meteorological fields during mid-winter month have been averaged over the first (1995-2005) and second (2006-2016) 11 years intervals and have been compared mainly paying attention to interannual and intraseasonal variability. Results show that changes in the mean fields and SPW2 are weaker and statistical significance of these changes is lower in comparison with the changes observed in the intraseasonal variability of these characteristics. All data sets demonstrate a decrease of SPW1 amplitude at the higher-middle latitudes in the lower stratosphere and opposite effect in the upper stratosphere. However, there is an increase of the intraseasonal variability for all meteorological parameters and this rise is statistically significant. The results obtained show that UK Met Office data demonstrate stronger changes and increase of the intraseasonal variability in comparison with other data sets.

  13. Enhancing Extreme Heat Health-Related Intervention and Preparedness Activities Using Remote Sensing Analysis of Daily Surface Temperature, Surface Observation Networks and Ecmwf Reanalysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia, R. L.; Booth, J.; Hondula, D.; Ross, K. W.; Stuyvesant, A.; Alm, G.; Baghel, E.

    2015-12-01

    Extreme heat causes more human fatalities in the United States than any other natural disaster, elevating the concern of heat-related mortality. Maricopa County Arizona is known for its high heat index and its sprawling metropolitan complex which makes this region a perfect candidate for human health research. Individuals at higher risk are unequally spatially distributed, leaving the poor, homeless, non-native English speakers, elderly, and the socially isolated vulnerable to heat events. The Arizona Department of Health Services, Arizona State University and NASA DEVELOP LaRC are working to establish a more effective method of placing hydration and cooling centers in addition to enhancing the heat warning system to aid those with the highest exposure. Using NASA's Earth Observation Systems from Aqua and Terra satellites, the daily spatial variability within the UHI was quantified over the summer heat seasons from 2005 - 2014, effectively establishing a remotely sensed surface temperature climatology for the county. A series of One-way Analysis of Variance revealed significant differences between daily surface temperature averages of the top 30% of census tracts within the study period. Furthermore, synoptic upper tropospheric circulation patterns were classified to relate surface weather types and heat index. The surface weather observation networks were also reviewed for analyzing the veracity of the other methods. The results provide detailed information regarding nuances within the UHI effect and will allow pertinent recommendations regarding the health department's adaptive capacity. They also hold essential components for future policy decision-making regarding appropriate locations for cooling centers and efficient warning systems.

  14. Performance of the THS4302 and the Class V Radiation-Tolerant THS4304-SP Silicon Germanium Wideband Amplifiers at Extreme Temperatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patterson, Richard L.; Elbuluk, Malik; Hammoud, Ahmad; VanKeuls, Frederick W.

    2009-01-01

    This report discusses the performance of silicon germanium, wideband gain amplifiers under extreme temperatures. The investigated devices include Texas Instruments THS4304-SP and THS4302 amplifiers. Both chips are manufactured using the BiCom3 process based on silicon germanium technology along with silicon-on-insulator (SOI) buried oxide layers. The THS4304-SP device was chosen because it is a Class V radiation-tolerant (150 kRad, TID silicon), voltage-feedback operational amplifier designed for use in high-speed analog signal applications and is very desirable for NASA missions. It operates with a single 5 V power supply [1]. It comes in a 10-pin ceramic flatpack package, and it provides balanced inputs, low offset voltage and offset current, and high common mode rejection ratio. The fixed-gain THS4302 chip, which comes in a 16-pin leadless package, offers high bandwidth, high slew rate, low noise, and low distortion [2]. Such features have made the amplifier useful in a number of applications such as wideband signal processing, wireless transceivers, intermediate frequency (IF) amplifier, analog-to-digital converter (ADC) preamplifier, digital-to-analog converter (DAC) output buffer, measurement instrumentation, and medical and industrial imaging.

  15. A comparison of whole body vibration and moist heat on lower extremity skin temperature and skin blood flow in healthy older individuals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lohman, Everett B; Sackiriyas, Kanikkai Steni Balan; Bains, Gurinder S; Calandra, Giovanni; Lobo, Crystal; Nakhro, Daniel; Malthankar, Gauri; Paul, Sherwine

    2012-07-01

    Tissue healing is an intricate process that is regulated by circulation. Heat modalities have been shown to improve skin circulation. Recent research supports that passive vibration increases circulation without risk of burns. Study purpose is to compare and determine effects of short duration vibration, moist heat, and a combination of the two on skin blood flow (SBF) and skin temperature (ST) in elderly, non-diabetic individuals following short-term exposure. Ten subjects, 3 female and 7 male (55-73 years of age), received two interventions over three days: 1--Active vibration, 2--passive vibration, 3--moist heat, 4--moist heat combined with passive vibration (MHPV), 5--a commercial massaging heating pad, and 6--no intervention. SBF and ST were measured using a MOOR Laser Doppler before and after the intervention and the third measurement were taken 10 minutes following. Mean SBF following a ten-minute intervention were significantly different in the combination of moist heat and passive vibration from the control, active vibration, and the commercial massaging heating pad. Compared to baseline measurements, this resulted in mean SBF elevation to 450% (at conclusion of 10 minutes of intervention) and 379% (10 minutes post). MHPV (p=0.02) showed significant changes in ST from the commercial massaging heating pad, passive vibration, and active vibration interventions. SBF in the lower legs showed greatest increase with MHPV. Interventions should be selected that are low risk while increasing lower extremity skin blood flow.

  16. IMFREX impact of the anthropic changes on the frequency of the extreme phenomena of the wind, the temperature and the rainfall. Final report; Imfrex impact des changements anthropiques sur la frequence des phenomenes extremes de vent de temperature et de precipitations. Rapport final

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2007-07-01

    The aim of Imfrex was to evaluate the impact of a climatic change on the frequency of extreme phenomena of wind and rainfall in France. The study is based on an hypothesis proposed by the GIEC and called scenario A2. A first simulation, low resolution 300 km, using a coupled model ocean-atmosphere allowed to provide an evolution scenario for the temperature of the sea surface and the ice field area. A second simulation, high resolution 50 km, provided a daily evolution of the climate during 140 years. Imfrex was organized in five work-packages: the constitution of the data base, the validation of the models, the direct approach the statistical approach and the dynamical approach. (A.L.B.)

  17. Daddy Months

    OpenAIRE

    Volker Meier; Helmut Rainer

    2014-01-01

    We consider a bargaining model in which husband and wife decide on the allocation of time and disposable income. Since her bargaining power would go down otherwise more strongly, the wife agrees to having a child only if the husband also leaves the labor market for a while. The daddy months subsidy enables the couple to overcome a hold-up problem and thereby improves efficiency. However, the same ruling harms cooperative couples and may also reduce welfare in an endogenous taxation framework.

  18. Nutritional stress in Northern gannets during an unprecedented low reproductive success year: can extreme sea surface temperature event and dietary change be the cause?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franci, Cynthia D; Vézina, François; Grégoire, François; Rail, Jean-François; Verreault, Jonathan

    2015-03-01

    Reproductive success of seabirds is tightly associated with availability of their prey for which the spatiotemporal distribution may be influenced by sea surface temperature (SST) fluctuations. The objective of this study was to investigate whether Northern gannets (Morus bassanus) from the largest colony in North America (Bonaventure Island, Quebec, Canada) were in negative nutritional state during the unprecedented low reproductive success year of 2012, and whether this was associated with changes in SST anomalies and diet. The incubation period of gannets in 2012 was characterized by a significant decline, from early to late incubation, in plasma triglyceride levels that was associated with an increase in plasma corticosterone levels. However, no changes in plasma glycerol and β-hydroxybutyrate levels were noted. SST anomalies recorded in this area (south of the Gulf of St. Lawrence) during the breeding period were consistently higher in 2012 compared to the previous year (a better reproductive success year). Based on signatures of stable carbon (δ(13)C) and nitrogen (δ(15)N) isotopes in gannet red blood cells and in whole fish homogenates of three major preys (mackerel, herring, and capelin), a minor dietary shift was noted between those years and incubation periods. In light of these findings, it is suggested that the extreme warm-water perturbation event that prevailed in the Gulf of St. Lawrence during summer 2012 was associated with a rapid deterioration of nutritional condition of Bonaventure Island gannets during the incubation. These suboptimal physiological changes likely contributed to the dramatic decline in reproductive success reported in this colony. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Transition to Pulse-Like Rupture, With and Without Inclusion of Evolving Temperature and Pore Pressure, When Accounting for Extreme Weakening at High Slip Rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noda, H.; Dunham, E. M.; Rice, J. R.

    2007-12-01

    We have conducted rupture propagation simulations incorporating the combined effects of thermal pressurization of pore fluid by distributed heating within a finite width shear zone, and flash heating of microscopic contacts. These are probably the primary weakening mechanisms at high coseismic slip rates. For flash heating, we use a rate- and state-dependent friction law in the slip law formulation, accounting for extreme velocity weakening above a weakening slip rate Vw ~ 0.1 m/s that depends on the background temperature, and a very short state evolution distance, L, of ~ 10 μm, which is comparable to the asperity length. We have also conducted a series of calculations with neglecting evolving change in macroscopic temperature, T, and pore pressure, p, and compared the results. Slip rate, V, at a point on a fault increases when a rupture front approaches, and decreases behind it. In the pulse-like solutions, V decreases below Vw, and the point is eventually locked. On the other hand, in the crack-like solutions, V increases again only if we allow evolving change in T and p. In the cases when we neglect changes in T and p, V continues to decrease behind the rupture front as long as we simulate. Here, a question emerges; is the solution crack-like because of the short calculation time? Zheng and Rice [1998] proposed an intuitive criterion between crack-like and pulse-like solutions as follows: If and only if the background shear stress, τb, is larger than a critical value, τpulse, there are roots of τss(V) = τb - μ V/2 cs, where τss is steady-state strength, μ is shear modulus and cs is shear speed. If TZR = - (μ/2cs)/(dτss/dV) at the largest root is near unity, the solution is pulse-like. Our calculations without T and p changes show that the pulse-like solution regime extends above τpulse, at least up to the point where TZR = 0.176, if a rupture is initiated by a perturbation in shear stress in a certain manner. The transition time to pulse

  20. MERRA 3D IAU Tendency, Temperature, Monthly Mean (1.25x1.25L42) V5.2.0

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The MATMCPTDT or tavgM_3d_tdt_Cp data product is the MERRA Data Assimilation System 3-Dimensional temperature tendencies that is time averaged on pressure levels at...

  1. Monthly and annual mean seawater temperature, salinity and density from 26 tide gauge sites during 1855-1993 (NODC Accession 0000817)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Tidal observers at primary tide gauges of the United States Coast and Geodetic Survey (now the NOAA National Ocean Service) routinely measured seawater temperature...

  2. Acclimatization to extreme heat

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warner, M. E.; Ganguly, A. R.; Bhatia, U.

    2017-12-01

    Heat extremes throughout the globe, as well as in the United States, are expected to increase. These heat extremes have been shown to impact human health, resulting in some of the highest levels of lives lost as compared with similar natural disasters. But in order to inform decision makers and best understand future mortality and morbidity, adaptation and mitigation must be considered. Defined as the ability for individuals or society to change behavior and/or adapt physiologically, acclimatization encompasses the gradual adaptation that occurs over time. Therefore, this research aims to account for acclimatization to extreme heat by using a hybrid methodology that incorporates future air conditioning use and installation patterns with future temperature-related time series data. While previous studies have not accounted for energy usage patterns and market saturation scenarios, we integrate such factors to compare the impact of air conditioning as a tool for acclimatization, with a particular emphasis on mortality within vulnerable communities.

  3. Implications of Climate-enforced Temperature Increases on Freshwater Pico- and Nanoplankton Populations Studied in Artificial Ponds During 16 Months

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christoffersen, K.; Andersen, Nethe; Søndergaard, M.

    2006-01-01

    + with an additional 50% temperature increase. Half of the mesocosms were enriched with nitrogen and phosphorus to simulate increased runoff from terrestrial sources due to the increased precipitation predicted by the A2 scenario. The other half were un-enriched and received only natural nutrient input from...

  4. Extreme value analysis of meterological parameters observed at Narora during the period 1989-2001

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Varakhedkar, V.K.; Dube, B.; Gurg, R.P.

    2002-08-01

    The design of engineering structures requires an understanding of extreme weather conditions that may occur at the site of interest, which is very essential, so that the structures can be designed to withstand weather stresses. In this report an analysis of extreme values of meteorological parameters observed at Narora for the period 1989- 2001 is described. The parameters considered are maximum and minimum air temperature, minimum relative humidity, maximum wind speed, maximum rainfall in a day and month, and annual rainfall. The extreme value analysis reveals that the variables such as annual maximum air temperature, minimum relative humidity and monthly maximum rainfall obey Fisher -Tippet Type -I extreme value distribution where as annual minimum air temperature, maximum hourly wind speed, daily maximum rainfall and maximum and minimum annual rainfall, obey Fisher -Tippet Type -2 extreme value distribution function. Various distribution function parameters for each variable are determined. Extreme values corresponding to return periods of 50 years and 100 years are worked out. These derived extreme values are particularly useful for arriving at suitable design values to ensure the safety of any civil structure in Narora area with respect to stresses due to weather conditions. (author)

  5. Stellar extreme ultraviolet astronomy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cash, W.C. Jr.

    1978-01-01

    The design, calibration, and launch of a rocket-borne imaging telescope for extreme ultraviolet astronomy are described. The telescope, which employed diamond-turned grazing incidence optics and a ranicon detector, was launched November 19, 1976, from the White Sands Missile Range. The telescope performed well and returned data on several potential stellar sources of extreme ultraviolet radiation. Upper limits ten to twenty times more sensitive than previously available were obtained for the extreme ultraviolet flux from the white dwarf Sirius B. These limits fall a factor of seven below the flux predicted for the star and demonstrate that the temperature of Sirius B is not 32,000 K as previously measured, but is below 30,000 K. The new upper limits also rule out the photosphere of the white dwarf as the source of the recently reported soft x-rays from Sirius. Two other white dwarf stars, Feige 24 and G191-B2B, were observed. Upper limits on the flux at 300 A were interpreted as lower limits on the interstellar hydrogen column densities to these stars. The lower limits indicate interstellar hydrogen densitites of greater than .02 cm -3 . Four nearby stars (Sirius, Procyon, Capella, and Mirzam) were observed in a search for intense low temperature coronae or extended chromospheres. No extreme ultraviolet radiation from these stars was detected, and upper limits to their coronal emisson measures are derived

  6. Extreme pressure differences at 0900 NZST and winds across New Zealand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salinger, M. James; Griffiths, Georgina M.; Gosai, Ashmita

    2005-07-01

    Trends in extremes in station daily sea-level pressure differences at 0900 NZST are examined, and extreme daily wind gusts, across New Zealand, since the 1960s. Annual time series were examined (with indices of magnitude and frequency over threshold percentiles) from the daily indices selected. These follow from earlier indices of normalized monthly mean sea-level pressure differences between station pairs, except the daily indices are not normalized. The frequency statistics quantify the number of extreme zonal (westerly and easterly), or extreme meridional (southerly or northerly), pressure gradient events. The frequency and magnitude of extreme westerly episodes has increased slightly over New Zealand, with a significant increase in the westerly extremes to the south of New Zealand. In contrast, the magnitude and frequency of easterly extremes has decreased over New Zealand, but increased to the south, with some trends weakly significant. The frequency and magnitude of daily southerly extremes has decreased significantly in the region.Extreme daily wind gust events at key climate stations in New Zealand and at Hobart, Australia, are highly likely to be associated with an extreme daily pressure difference. The converse was less likely to hold: extreme wind gusts were not always observed on days with extreme daily pressure difference, probably due to the strong influence that topography has on localized station winds. Significant correlations exist between the frequency indices and both annual-average mean sea-level pressures around the Australasian region and annual-average sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the Southern Hemisphere. These correlations are generally stronger for indices of extreme westerly or extreme southerly airflows. Annual-average pressures in the Tasman Sea or Southern Ocean are highly correlated to zonal indices (frequency of extreme westerlies). SST anomalies in the NINO3 region or on either side of the South Island are

  7. Probability assessment for the incidence of extreme events due to the climatic change. Focus Germany; Berechnung der Wahrscheinlichkeiten fuer das Eintreten von Extremereignissen durch Klimaaenderungen. Schwerpunkt Deutschland

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jonas, Martin; Staeger, Tim; Schoenwiese, Christian-Dietrich [Frankfurt Univ. (Germany). Inst. fuer Atmosphaere und Umwelt, Arbeitsgruppe Klimaforschung

    2005-08-15

    The study on the probability of occurrence of extreme weather events in Germany is based on compiled data covering ground-level temperature, precipitation and wind during the time period 1901 to 2000. The data processing approach is based on two methodologies: a time-gliding extreme value analysis and a structure-oriented time-series analysis. The results show a significant increase of very hot months and at the same time a decrease of extreme cold months within the 20th century. In the time period after 1951 the probability of very high daily maximum temperatures increased for all seasons. Concerning the precipitation the increase of extreme values and higher variabilities are observed for the winter period. The results concerning the wind are not so clear. Summarizing the extreme behavior of temperature and precipitation has shown strong variations during the last century.

  8. Clustering of France Monthly Precipitation, Temperature and Discharge Based on their Multiresolution Links with 500mb Geopotential Height from 1968 to 2008

    Science.gov (United States)

    Massei, N.; Fossa, M.; Dieppois, B.; Vidal, J. P.; Fournier, M.; Laignel, B.

    2017-12-01

    In the context of climate change and ever growing use of water resources, identifying how the climate and watershed signature in discharge variability changes with the geographic location is of prime importance. This study aims at establishing how 1968-2008 multiresolution links between 3 local hydrometerological variables (precipitation, temperature and discharge) and 500 mb geopotential height are structured over France. First, a methodology that allows to encode the 3D geopotential height data into its 1D conformal modulus time series is introduced. Then, for each local variable, their covariations with the geopotential height are computed with cross wavelet analysis. Finally, a clustering analysis of each variable cross spectra is done using bootstrap clustering.We compare the clustering results for each local variable in order to untangle the watershed from the climate drivers in France's rivers discharge. Additionally, we identify the areas in the geopotential height field that are responsible for the spatial structure of each local variable.Main results from this study show that for precipitation and discharge, clear spatial zones emerge. Each cluster is characterized either by different different amplitudes and/or time scales of covariations with geopotential height. Precipitation and discharge clustering differ with the later being simpler which indicates a strong low frequency modulation by the watersheds all over France. Temperature on the other hand shows less clearer spatial zones. For precipitation and discharge, we show that the main action path starts at the northern tropical zone then moves up the to central North Atlantic zone which seems to indicates an interaction between the convective cells variability and the reinforcement of the westerlies jets as one of the main control of the precipitation and discharge over France. Temperature shows a main zone of action directly over France hinting at local temperature/pressure interactions.

  9. Extreme-temperature lab on a chip for optogalvanic spectroscopy of ultra small samples - key components and a first integration attempt

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berglund, Martin; Khaji, Zahra; Persson, Anders; Sturesson, Peter; Breivik, Johan Söderberg; Thornell, Greger; Klintberg, Lena

    2016-01-01

    This is a short summary of the authors’ recent R and D on valves, combustors, plasma sources, and pressure and temperature sensors, realized in high-temperature co-fired ceramics, and an account for the first attempt to monolithically integrate them to form a lab on a chip for sample administration, preparation and analysis, as a stage in optogalvanic spectroscopy. (paper)

  10. Effects of electromagnetic radiation (bright light, extremely low-frequency magnetic fields, infrared radiation) on the circadian rhythm of melatonin synthesis, rectal temperature, and heart rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griefahn, Barbara; Künemund, Christa; Blaszkewicz, Meinolf; Lerchl, Alexander; Degen, Gisela H

    2002-10-01

    Electromagnetic spectra reduce melatonin production and delay the nadirs of rectal temperature and heart rate. Seven healthy men (16-22 yrs) completed 4 permuted sessions. The control session consisted of a 24-hours bedrest at infrared radiation (65 degrees C) was applied from 5 pm to 1 am. Salivary melatonin level was determined hourly, rectal temperature and heart rate were continuously recorded. Melatonin synthesis was completely suppressed by light but resumed thereafter. The nadirs of rectal temperature and heart rate were delayed. The magnetic field had no effect. Infrared radiation elevated rectal temperature and heart rate. Only bright light affected the circadian rhythms of melatonin synthesis, rectal temperature, and heart rate, however, differently thus causing a dissociation, which might enhance the adverse effects of shiftwork in the long run.

  11. Summer Temperature Extremes in the Northern Rockies: A Tree-Ring-Based Reconstruction (1670-2014) from the Bighorn Mountains, WY

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hudson, A.; Alfaro-Sanchez, R.; Belmecheri, S.; Moore, D. J.; Trouet, V.

    2017-12-01

    Anthropogenic climate change has caused global temperatures to rise in recent decades. Temperatures at the regional scale are influenced by various factors including topography, atmospheric circulation, and seasonality that superimpose year-to-year variability on this global warming trend. Here, we develop a tree-ring based summer temperature reconstruction for the northern Rockies in order to investigate the drivers of the year-to-year temperature variability in this region. For this purpose, we sampled 10 sites in the semi-arid Bighorn Mountains, WY and developed two tree-ring width chronologies for differing elevations. The high elevation Picea engelmannii chronology (>2,630m) is positively correlated with July temperature variability, whereas the low elevation (<2,580m) chronology - consisting of Pinus contorta, Pseudotsuga menziesii, and Pinus albicaulis - is sensitive to summer precipitation and negatively correlated with June and July temperatures. A reconstruction based on a combination of the two chronologies explains 30% of the variance in regional June and July temperatures over the instrumental period, covers the period 1670-2014, and is representative for the central United States and southern Canada region. Our reconstruction shows significantly lower summer temperatures in the year following the 16 largest tropical eruptions from 1670 to the present. The reconstruction further captures the high summer temperatures during the 1930s dust bowl era and shows a steep increase in variance in the late 20th century. Enhanced late 20th century variance has also been detected in climate and ecosystem dynamics in the Northeast Pacific, which suggests an impact of an amplified meridional flow on northern Rockies summer temperatures.

  12. Biohydrogen production from household solid waste (HSW) at extreme-thermophilic temperature (70 degrees C) - Influence of pH and acetate concentration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Liu, Dawei; Min, Booki; Angelidaki, Irini

    2008-01-01

    Hydrogen production from household solid waste (HSW) was performed via dark fermentation by using an extreme-thermophilic mixed culture, and the effect of pH and acetate on the biohydrogen production was investigated. The highest hydrogen production yield was 257 +/- 25 mL/gVS(added) at the optimum...... pH of 7.0. Acetate was proved to be inhibiting the dark fermentation process at neutral pH, which indicates that the inhibition was caused by total acetate concentration not by undissociated acetate. Initial inhibition was detected at acetate concentration of 50 mM, while the hydrogen fermentation...

  13. Non-stationary Bias Correction of Monthly CMIP5 Temperature Projections over China using a Residual-based Bagging Tree Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, T.; Lee, C.

    2017-12-01

    The biases in the Global Circulation Models (GCMs) are crucial for understanding future climate changes. Currently, most bias correction methodologies suffer from the assumption that model bias is stationary. This paper provides a non-stationary bias correction model, termed Residual-based Bagging Tree (RBT) model, to reduce simulation biases and to quantify the contributions of single models. Specifically, the proposed model estimates the residuals between individual models and observations, and takes the differences between observations and the ensemble mean into consideration during the model training process. A case study is conducted for 10 major river basins in Mainland China during different seasons. Results show that the proposed model is capable of providing accurate and stable predictions while including the non-stationarities into the modeling framework. Significant reductions in both bias and root mean squared error are achieved with the proposed RBT model, especially for the central and western parts of China. The proposed RBT model has consistently better performance in reducing biases when compared to the raw ensemble mean, the ensemble mean with simple additive bias correction, and the single best model for different seasons. Furthermore, the contribution of each single GCM in reducing the overall bias is quantified. The single model importance varies between 3.1% and 7.2%. For different future scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5), the results from RBT model suggest temperature increases of 1.44 ºC, 2.59 ºC, and 4.71 ºC by the end of the century, respectively, when compared to the average temperature during 1970 - 1999.

  14. Climate Extreme Events over Northern Eurasia in Changing Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bulygina, O.; Korshunova, N. N.; Razuvaev, V. N.; Groisman, P. Y.

    2014-12-01

    During the period of widespread instrumental observations in Northern Eurasia, the annual surface air temperature has increased by 1.5°C. Close to the north in the Arctic Ocean, the late summer sea ice extent has decreased by 40% providing a near-infinite source of water vapor for the dry Arctic atmosphere in the early cold season months. The contemporary sea ice changes are especially visible in the Eastern Hemisphere All these factors affect the change extreme events. Daily and sub-daily data of 940 stations to analyze variations in the space time distribution of extreme temperatures, precipitation, and wind over Russia were used. Changing in number of days with thaw over Russia was described. The total seasonal numbers of days, when daily surface air temperatures (wind, precipitation) were found to be above (below) selected thresholds, were used as indices of climate extremes. Changing in difference between maximum and minimum temperature (DTR) may produce a variety of effects on biological systems. All values falling within the intervals ranged from the lowest percentile to the 5th percentile and from the 95th percentile to the highest percentile for the time period of interest were considered as daily extremes. The number of days, N, when daily temperatures (wind, precipitation, DTR) were within the above mentioned intervals, was determined for the seasons of each year. Linear trends in the number of days were calculated for each station and for quasi-homogeneous climatic regions. Regional analysis of extreme events was carried out using quasi-homogeneous climatic regions. Maps (climatology, trends) are presented mostly for visualization purposes. Differences in regional characteristics of extreme events are accounted for over a large extent of the Russian territory and variety of its physical and geographical conditions. The number of days with maximum temperatures higher than the 95% percentile has increased in most of Russia and decreased in Siberia in

  15. Electrical resistivity of YbRh2Si2 and EuT2Ge2 (T=Co,Cu) at extreme conditions of pressure and temperature

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dionicio, G.A.

    2006-01-01

    This investigation addresses the effect that pressure, p, and temperature, T, have on 4f states of the rare-earth elements in the isostructural YbRh 2 Si 2 , EuCo 2 Ge 2 , and EuCu 2 Ge 2 compounds. Upon applying pressure the volume of the unit cell reduces, enforcing either the enhancement of the hybridization of the 4f localized electrons with the ligand or a change in the valence state of the rare-earth ions. Here, we probe the effect of a pressure-induced lattice contraction on these system by means of electrical-resistivity measurements, ρ(T), from room temperature down to 100 mK. (orig.)

  16. Local adaptations to frost in marginal and central populations of the dominant forest tree Fagus sylvatica L. as affected by temperature and extreme drought in common garden experiments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kreyling, Juergen; Buhk, Constanze; Backhaus, Sabrina; Hallinger, Martin; Huber, Gerhard; Huber, Lukas; Jentsch, Anke; Konnert, Monika; Thiel, Daniel; Wilmking, Martin; Beierkuhnlein, Carl

    2014-03-01

    Local adaptations to environmental conditions are of high ecological importance as they determine distribution ranges and likely affect species responses to climate change. Increased environmental stress (warming, extreme drought) due to climate change in combination with decreased genetic mixing due to isolation may lead to stronger local adaptations of geographically marginal than central populations. We experimentally observed local adaptations of three marginal and four central populations of Fagus sylvaticaL., the dominant native forest tree, to frost over winter and in spring (late frost). We determined frost hardiness of buds and roots by the relative electrolyte leakage in two common garden experiments. The experiment at the cold site included a continuous warming treatment; the experiment at the warm site included a preceding summer drought manipulation. In both experiments, we found evidence for local adaptation to frost, with stronger signs of local adaptation in marginal populations. Winter frost killed many of the potted individuals at the cold site, with higher survival in the warming treatment and in those populations originating from colder environments. However, we found no difference in winter frost tolerance of buds among populations, implying that bud survival was not the main cue for mortality. Bud late frost tolerance in April differed between populations at the warm site, mainly because of phenological differences in bud break. Increased spring frost tolerance of plants which had experienced drought stress in the preceding summer could also be explained by shifts in phenology. Stronger local adaptations to climate in geographically marginal than central populations imply the potential for adaptation to climate at range edges. In times of climate change, however, it needs to be tested whether locally adapted populations at range margins can successfully adapt further to changing conditions.

  17. Continuous epitaxial growth of extremely strong Cu6Sn5 textures at liquid-Sn/(111)Cu interface under temperature gradient

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhong, Y.; Zhao, N.; Liu, C. Y.; Dong, W.; Qiao, Y. Y.; Wang, Y. P.; Ma, H. T.

    2017-11-01

    As the diameter of solder interconnects in three-dimensional integrated circuits (3D ICs) downsizes to several microns, how to achieve a uniform microstructure with thousands of interconnects on stacking chips becomes a critical issue in 3D IC manufacturing. We report a promising way for fabricating fully intermetallic interconnects with a regular grain morphology and a strong texture feature by soldering single crystal (111) Cu/Sn/polycrystalline Cu interconnects under the temperature gradient. Continuous epitaxial growth of η-Cu6Sn5 at cold end liquid-Sn/(111)Cu interfaces has been demonstrated. The resultant η-Cu6Sn5 grains show faceted prism textures with an intersecting angle of 60° and highly preferred orientation with their ⟨ 11 2 ¯ 0 ⟩ directions nearly paralleling to the direction of the temperature gradient. These desirable textures are maintained even after soldering for 120 min. The results pave the way for controlling the morphology and orientation of interfacial intermetallics in 3D packaging technologies.

  18. Extreme enhancement of blocking temperature by strong magnetic dipoles interaction of α-Fe nanoparticle-based high-density agglomerate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kura, H; Takahashi, M; Ogawa, T

    2011-01-01

    High-volume fraction α-Fe nanoparticle (NP) agglomerates were prepared using chemically synthesized NPs. In the agglomerate, NPs are separated by surfactant and NP superlattice with a hexagonal close-packed structure is locally realized. Volume fractions of NPs at 20% and 42% were obtained in agglomerates consisting of 2.9 nm and 8.2 nm diameter NPs, respectively. The high saturation magnetization of α-Fe NPs and high volume fraction of NPs in the agglomerate provide strong magnetic dipole-dipole interaction. The interaction energy of the agglomerate became much larger than the anisotropic energy of individual NPs. As a result, the blocking temperature of the 8.2 nm NP agglomerate was significantly enhanced from 52.2 K to around 500 K. (fast track communication)

  19. High-temperature crystallization of the secondary alcohol dehydrogenase from the extreme thermophilic bacteria Thermoanaerobacter ethanolicus, a bifunctional alcohol dehydrogenase-acetyl-CoA thio esterase

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Watanabe, L.; Arni, R.K.

    1996-01-01

    Full text. Ethanol fermentations from Saccharomyces sp. are used in industrial ethanol production and are performed at mesophilic temperatures where final ethanol concentrations must exceed 4% (v/v) to make the process industrially economic. In addition, distillation is required to recover ethanol. Thermophilic fermentations are very attractive since they enable separation of ethanol from continuous cultures at process temperature and reduced pressure. Two different ethanol-production pathways have been identified for thermophilic bacteria; type I from Clostridium thermocellum, which contains only NADH-linked primary-alcohol dehydrogeneases, and type II from Thermoanaerobacter brockii which in addition include NADPH-linked secondary-alcohol dehydrogenases. The thermophilic anaerobic bacterium T ethanolicus 39E produces ethanol as the major end product from starch, pentose and herose substrates. The 2 Adh has a lower catalytic efficiency for the oxidation of 1 alcohols, including ethanol, than for the oxidation of secondary (2) alcohols or the reduction of ketones or aldehydes and possesses a significant acetyl-CoA reductive thioesterase activity. Large single crystals (0.7 x 0.3 x 0.3 mn) of this enzyme have been obtained at 40 0 C and diffraction data to 2.7 A resolution has been collected (R merge = 10.44%). Attempts are currently underway to obtain higher resolution data and a search for heavy atom derivatives is currently underway. The crystals belong to the space group P2 1 2 1 2 with cell constants of a a= 170.0 A, b=125.7 A and c=80.5 A. The asymmetric unit contains a tetramer as in the case of the crystals of the secondary alcohol dehydrogenase from Thermoanaerobacter brockii with a V M of 2.85 A 3 /Da. (author)

  20. Global Historical Climatology Network - Monthly (GHCN-M), Version 3

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Please note, GHCN-Monthly provides climatological observations for four elements; monthly mean maximum temperature, minimum temperature, mean temperature, and...

  1. New insights into the interface between a single-crystalline metal electrode and an extremely pure ionic liquid: slow interfacial processes and the influence of temperature on interfacial dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drüschler, Marcel; Borisenko, Natalia; Wallauer, Jens; Winter, Christian; Huber, Benedikt; Endres, Frank; Roling, Bernhard

    2012-04-21

    Ionic liquids are of high interest for the development of safe electrolytes in modern electrochemical cells, such as batteries, supercapacitors and dye-sensitised solar cells. However, electrochemical applications of ionic liquids are still hindered by the limited understanding of the interface between electrode materials and ionic liquids. In this article, we first review the state of the art in both experiment and theory. Then we illustrate some general trends by taking the interface between the extremely pure ionic liquid 1-butyl-1-methylpyrrolidinium tris(pentafluoroethyl)trifluorophosphate and an Au(111) electrode as an example. For the study of this interface, electrochemical impedance spectroscopy was combined with in situ STM and in situ AFM techniques. In addition, we present new results for the temperature dependence of the interfacial capacitance and dynamics. Since the interfacial dynamics are characterised by different processes taking place on different time scales, the temperature dependence of the dynamics can only be reliably studied by recording and carefully analysing broadband capacitance spectra. Single-frequency experiments may lead to artefacts in the temperature dependence of the interfacial capacitance. We demonstrate that the fast capacitive process exhibits a Vogel-Fulcher-Tamman temperature dependence, since its time scale is governed by the ionic conductivity of the ionic liquid. In contrast, the slower capacitive process appears to be Arrhenius activated. This suggests that the time scale of this process is determined by a temperature-independent barrier, which may be related to structural reorganisations of the Au surface and/or to charge redistributions in the strongly bound innermost ion layer. This journal is © the Owner Societies 2012

  2. Extreme ultraviolet and soft x-ray diagnostics of high-temperature plasmas. Annual progress report, June 1, 1976--May 31, 1977

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moos, H.W.; Armstrong, L. Jr.; Fastie, W.G.

    1977-01-01

    The results of the research program at this laboratory from mid February 1976 until January 31, 1977, are described. The four major research areas of the program: diagnostic studies of magnetically confined high temperature plasmas, supporting laboratory studies, theoretical studies of highly ionized atoms, and instrument development are discussed. Spatially resolved ultraviolet measurements on Elmo Bumpy Torus have determined impurity confinement times. The measured oxygen densities and fluxes are being determined at Alcator; the spectroscopic studies show that hydrogen discharges in this tokamak have an effective Z close to one. A laboratory study of the Penning discharge between 100 and 300 A shows that it is a bright source for evaluation of EUV diagnostic instrumentation. Design of a multispatial element spectrometer system is complete and construction has begun. A spectrophotometer compatible with both types of facilities is available for absolute intensity calibration transfer from the NBS SURF II facility to ERDA plasma facilities. Computer programs needed for relativistic calculation of transition probabilities and wavelengths have been completed and applied to calculations in the Li, Be, Ar, and K isoelectronic sequences

  3. Extremely Preterm Birth

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Events Advocacy For Patients About ACOG Extremely Preterm Birth Home For Patients Search FAQs Extremely Preterm Birth ... Spanish FAQ173, June 2016 PDF Format Extremely Preterm Birth Pregnancy When is a baby considered “preterm” or “ ...

  4. Changing population dynamics and uneven temperature emergence combine to exacerbate regional exposure to heat extremes under 1.5 °C and 2 °C of warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harrington, Luke J.; Otto, Friederike E. L.

    2018-03-01

    Understanding how continuing increases in global mean temperature will exacerbate societal exposure to extreme weather events is a question of profound importance. However, determining population exposure to the impacts of heat extremes at 1.5 °C and 2 °C of global mean warming requires not only (1) a robust understanding of the physical climate system response, but also consideration of (2) projected changes to overall population size, as well as (3) changes to where people will live in the future. This analysis introduces a new framework, adapted from studies of probabilistic event attribution, to disentangle the relative importance of regional climate emergence and changing population dynamics in the exposure to future heat extremes across multiple densely populated regions in Southern Asia and Eastern Africa (SAEA). Our results reveal that, when population is kept at 2015 levels, exposure to heat considered severe in the present decade across SAEA will increase by a factor of 4.1 (2.4-9.6) and 15.8 (5.0-135) under a 1.5°- and 2.0°-warmer world, respectively. Furthermore, projected population changes by the end of the century under an SSP1 and SSP2 scenario can further exacerbate these changes by a factor of 1.2 (1.0-1.3) and 1.5 (1.3-1.7), respectively. However, a large fraction of this additional risk increase is not related to absolute increases in population, but instead attributed to changes in which regions exhibit continued population growth into the future. Further, this added impact of population redistribution will be twice as significant after 2.0 °C of warming, relative to stabilisation at 1.5 °C, due to the non-linearity of increases in heat exposure. Irrespective of the population scenario considered, continued African population expansion will place more people in locations where emergent changes to future heat extremes are exceptionally severe.

  5. Extreme conditions (p, T, H)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mesot, J [Lab. for Neutron Scattering ETH Zurich, Zurich (Switzerland) and Paul Scherrer Institute, Villigen (Switzerland)

    1996-11-01

    The aim of this paper is to summarize the sample environment which will be accessible at the SINQ. In order to illustrate the type of experiments which will be feasible under extreme conditions of temperature, magnetic field and pressure at the SINQ a few selected examples are also given. (author) 7 figs., 14 refs.

  6. Up-to-date probabilistic temperature climatologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krakauer, Nir Y; Devineni, Naresh

    2015-01-01

    With ongoing global warming, climatologies based on average past temperatures are increasingly recognized as imperfect guides for current conditions, yet there is no consensus on alternatives. Here, we compare several approaches to deriving updated expected values of monthly mean temperatures, including moving average, exponentially weighted moving average, and piecewise linear regression. We go beyond most previous work by presenting updated climate normals as probability distributions rather than only point estimates, enabling estimation of the changing likelihood of hot and cold extremes. We show that there is a trade-off between bias and variance in these approaches, but that bias can be mitigated by an additive correction based on a global average temperature series, which has much less interannual variability than a single-station series. Using thousands of monthly temperature time series from the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN), we find that the exponentially weighted moving average with a timescale of 15 years and global bias correction has good overall performance in hindcasting temperatures over the last 30 years (1984–2013) compared with the other methods tested. Our results suggest that over the last 30 years, the likelihood of extremely hot months (above the 99th percentile of the temperature probability distribution as of the early 1980s) has increased more than fourfold across the GHCN stations, whereas the likelihood of very cold months (under the 1st percentile) has decreased by over two-thirds. (letter)

  7. Benchmarking monthly homogenization algorithms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Venema, V. K. C.; Mestre, O.; Aguilar, E.; Auer, I.; Guijarro, J. A.; Domonkos, P.; Vertacnik, G.; Szentimrey, T.; Stepanek, P.; Zahradnicek, P.; Viarre, J.; Müller-Westermeier, G.; Lakatos, M.; Williams, C. N.; Menne, M.; Lindau, R.; Rasol, D.; Rustemeier, E.; Kolokythas, K.; Marinova, T.; Andresen, L.; Acquaotta, F.; Fratianni, S.; Cheval, S.; Klancar, M.; Brunetti, M.; Gruber, C.; Prohom Duran, M.; Likso, T.; Esteban, P.; Brandsma, T.

    2011-08-01

    The COST (European Cooperation in Science and Technology) Action ES0601: Advances in homogenization methods of climate series: an integrated approach (HOME) has executed a blind intercomparison and validation study for monthly homogenization algorithms. Time series of monthly temperature and precipitation were evaluated because of their importance for climate studies and because they represent two important types of statistics (additive and multiplicative). The algorithms were validated against a realistic benchmark dataset. The benchmark contains real inhomogeneous data as well as simulated data with inserted inhomogeneities. Random break-type inhomogeneities were added to the simulated datasets modeled as a Poisson process with normally distributed breakpoint sizes. To approximate real world conditions, breaks were introduced that occur simultaneously in multiple station series within a simulated network of station data. The simulated time series also contained outliers, missing data periods and local station trends. Further, a stochastic nonlinear global (network-wide) trend was added. Participants provided 25 separate homogenized contributions as part of the blind study as well as 22 additional solutions submitted after the details of the imposed inhomogeneities were revealed. These homogenized datasets were assessed by a number of performance metrics including (i) the centered root mean square error relative to the true homogeneous value at various averaging scales, (ii) the error in linear trend estimates and (iii) traditional contingency skill scores. The metrics were computed both using the individual station series as well as the network average regional series. The performance of the contributions depends significantly on the error metric considered. Contingency scores by themselves are not very informative. Although relative homogenization algorithms typically improve the homogeneity of temperature data, only the best ones improve precipitation data

  8. Extreme value analysis of meteorological parameters observed during the period 1994-2001 at Kakrapar Atomic Power Station

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ramkumar, S.; Dole, M.L.; Nankar, D.P.; Rajan, M.P.; Gurg, R.P.

    2003-01-01

    In the design of engineering structures, an understanding of extreme weather conditions that may occur at the site of interest is very essential, so that the structures can be designed to withstand such situations. In this report an analysis of extreme values of meteorological parameters observed at Kakrapar Atomic Power Station site for the period 1994 -2001 is described. The parameters considered are maximum and minimum air temperature, maximum wind speed and gust, and maximum rainfall in a month, in a day, in an hour and annual rainfall. The extreme value analysis reveals that annual rainfall, maximum monthly rainfall, minimum air temperature and maximum wind speed at 10 m obey Fisher-Tippet Type -1 distribution whereas maximum daily rainfall, maximum hourly rainfall, maxinlum air temperature and maximum wind speed at 30 m obey Fisher-Tippet Type -2 distribution function. There is no difference in correlation coefficients and fit both extreme value distribution function. Co-efficients of the distribution functions for each variable are established. Extreme values of parameters corresponding to return periods of 50 and 100 years are derived. These derived extreme values are particularly useful for arriving at suitable design basis values to ensure the safety of any civil structure in and around Kakrapar Atomic Power Station site with respect to stresses due to weather conditions. (author)

  9. Trends in indices for extremes in daily air temperature over Utah, USA Tendências de indices de extremos para temperatura do ar diária sobre Utah, EUA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos Antonio Costa dos Santos

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available The main objective of this study was to obtain analysis of the trends in eleven annual extreme indices of temperature for Utah, United State of America (USA. The analyses have been obtained for 28 meteorological stations, in general, for the period of 1930 to 2006, characterizing a long-term period and with high quality data. The software used to process the data was the RClimdex 1.0. The analysis has identified that the temperature increased in Utah during the last century, evidencing the importance of the ongoing research on climate change in many parts of the world.O principal objetivo desse estudo foi analisar as tendências de onze indices de extremos climáticos baseados em dados diários de temperatura do ar, obtidos a partir de 28 estações meteorológicas localizadas em Utah, Estados Unidos da America (EUA. Em geral, os dados foram coletados entre 1930 e 2006, apresentando coerente resolução temporal e espacial. O software utilizado no processamento dos dados foi o RClimdex 1.0. As análises dos índices extremos mostraram que a temperatura aumentou em Utah durante o último século, evidenciando a importância das pesquisas sobre mudanças climáticas em diferentes partes do mundo.

  10. Automaton Rover for Extreme Environments, Phase II

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Extreme environments abound in the solar system and include the radiation around Jupiter, high surface temperatures on Mercury and Venus, and hot, high pressure...

  11. Synoptic and meteorological drivers of extreme ozone concentrations over Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otero, Noelia Felipe; Sillmann, Jana; Schnell, Jordan L.; Rust, Henning W.; Butler, Tim

    2016-04-01

    The present work assesses the relationship between local and synoptic meteorological conditions and surface ozone concentration over Europe in spring and summer months, during the period 1998-2012 using a new interpolated data set of observed surface ozone concentrations over the European domain. Along with local meteorological conditions, the influence of large-scale atmospheric circulation on surface ozone is addressed through a set of airflow indices computed with a novel implementation of a grid-by-grid weather type classification across Europe. Drivers of surface ozone over the full distribution of maximum daily 8-hour average values are investigated, along with drivers of the extreme high percentiles and exceedances or air quality guideline thresholds. Three different regression techniques are applied: multiple linear regression to assess the drivers of maximum daily ozone, logistic regression to assess the probability of threshold exceedances and quantile regression to estimate the meteorological influence on extreme values, as represented by the 95th percentile. The relative importance of the input parameters (predictors) is assessed by a backward stepwise regression procedure that allows the identification of the most important predictors in each model. Spatial patterns of model performance exhibit distinct variations between regions. The inclusion of the ozone persistence is particularly relevant over Southern Europe. In general, the best model performance is found over Central Europe, where the maximum temperature plays an important role as a driver of maximum daily ozone as well as its extreme values, especially during warmer months.

  12. Indoor Temperatures in Low Cost Housing in Johannesburg, South Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naicker, Nisha; Teare, June; Balakrishna, Yusentha; Wright, Caradee Yael; Mathee, Angela

    2017-11-18

    Ambient and indoor temperature affects thermal comfort and human health. In a changing climate with a predicted change in temperature extremes, understanding indoor temperatures, both hot and cold, of different housing types is important. This study aimed to assess the hourly, daily and monthly variation in indoor temperatures in different housing types, namely formal houses, informal houses, flats, government-built low-cost houses and old, apartheid era low-cost housing, in five impoverished urban communities in Johannesburg, South Africa. During the cross-sectional survey of the Health, Environment and Development study data loggers were installed in 100 homes (20 per suburb) from February to May 2014. Indoor temperature and relative humidity were recorded on an hourly basis. Ambient outdoor temperatures were obtained from the nearest weather station. Indoor and outdoor temperature and relative humidity levels were compared; and an inter-comparison between the different housing types were also made. Apparent temperature was calculated to assess indoor thermal comfort. Data from 59 retrieved loggers showed a significant difference in monthly mean indoor temperature between the five different housing types ( p informal settlement houses had the greatest variation in temperature and experienced temperatures between 4 and 5 °C warmer than outdoor temperatures. Housing types occupied by poor communities experienced indoor temperature fluctuations often greater than that observed for ambient temperatures. Families living in government-built low-cost and informally-constructed homes are the most at risk for indoor temperature extremes. These types of housing should be prioritised for interventions aimed at assisting families to cope with extreme temperatures, gaining optimal thermal comfort and preventing temperature-related health effects.

  13. Indoor Temperatures in Low Cost Housing in Johannesburg, South Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nisha Naicker

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Ambient and indoor temperature affects thermal comfort and human health. In a changing climate with a predicted change in temperature extremes, understanding indoor temperatures, both hot and cold, of different housing types is important. This study aimed to assess the hourly, daily and monthly variation in indoor temperatures in different housing types, namely formal houses, informal houses, flats, government-built low-cost houses and old, apartheid era low-cost housing, in five impoverished urban communities in Johannesburg, South Africa. During the cross-sectional survey of the Health, Environment and Development study data loggers were installed in 100 homes (20 per suburb from February to May 2014. Indoor temperature and relative humidity were recorded on an hourly basis. Ambient outdoor temperatures were obtained from the nearest weather station. Indoor and outdoor temperature and relative humidity levels were compared; and an inter-comparison between the different housing types were also made. Apparent temperature was calculated to assess indoor thermal comfort. Data from 59 retrieved loggers showed a significant difference in monthly mean indoor temperature between the five different housing types (p < 0.0001. Low cost government-built houses and informal settlement houses had the greatest variation in temperature and experienced temperatures between 4 and 5 °C warmer than outdoor temperatures. Housing types occupied by poor communities experienced indoor temperature fluctuations often greater than that observed for ambient temperatures. Families living in government-built low-cost and informally-constructed homes are the most at risk for indoor temperature extremes. These types of housing should be prioritised for interventions aimed at assisting families to cope with extreme temperatures, gaining optimal thermal comfort and preventing temperature-related health effects.

  14. December 2016 pulmonary case of the month

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wesselius LJ

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available No abstract available. Article truncated after 150 words. History of Present Illness: The patient is a 29-year-old man who presented to the emergency room with right-sided pleuritic chest pain, fever, cough, and progressive dyspnea over 2 weeks. Past Medical History, Social History and Family History: He had no prior significant medical issues and had been well until 2 weeks ago. A native of India, he has been in the US for about 5 months and works at American Express. He is a nonsmoker. Family history is noncontributory. Physical Examination: Vitals signs: Temperature 38.0◦ C, Blood Pressure 155/85 mm Hg, Heart Rate 140 beats/min, Respirations 24 breaths/min; General: Appears to be in moderate pain and respiratory distress; Lungs: Decreased breath sounds on the right; Heart: regular rhythm with a tachycardia; Abdomen: unremarkable; Extremities: unremarkable; Neurologic: unremarkable. Radiography: His initial chest x-ray is shown in Figure 1. Which of the following best describes the chest x-ray? 1. Elevated right hemidiaphragm …

  15. Monthly Weather Review

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Supplements to the Monthly Weather Review publication. The Weather Bureau published the Monthly weather review Supplement irregularly from 1914 to 1949. The...

  16. U.S. Monthly Climate Normals (1971-2000)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — U.S. Monthly Climate Normals (1971-2000) (DSI-9641C) include climatological normals based on monthly maximum, minimum, and mean temperature and monthly total...

  17. Global characteristics of extreme winters from a multi-millennial simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hunt, B.G. [CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, PO Box 1, Aspendale (Australia)

    2011-10-15

    Output from a multi-millennial simulation with the CSIRO Mark 2 coupled global climatic model has been analysed to determine the principal characteristics of extreme winters over the globe for ''present conditions''. Thus, this study is not concerned with possible changes in winter conditions associated with anthropogenically induced climatic change. Defining an extreme winter as having a surface temperature anomaly of below -2 standard deviations (sd) revealed a general occurrence rate over the globe of between 100 and 200 over a 6,000-year period of the simulation, with somewhat higher values over northwest North America. For temperature anomalies below -3 sd the corresponding occurrence rate drops to about 10. Spatial correlation studies revealed that extreme winters over regions in Europe, North America or Asia were very limited geographically, with time series of the surface temperature anomalies for these regions having mutual correlation coefficients of about 0.2. The temporal occurrence rates of winters (summers) having sd below -3 (above +3) were very asymmetric and sporadic, suggesting that such events arise from stochastic influences. Multi-year sequences of extreme winters were comparatively rare events. Detailed analysis revealed that the temporal and spatial evolution of the monthly surface temperature anomalies associated with an individual extreme winter were well replicated in the simulation, as were daily time series of such anomalies. Apart from an influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation on extreme winters in Europe, other prominent climatic oscillations were very poorly correlated with such winters. Rather modest winter temperature anomalies were found in the southern hemisphere. (orig.)

  18. Extreme sea level implications of 1.5 °C, 2.0 °C, and 2.5 °C temperature stabilization targets in the 21st and 22nd centuries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rasmussen, D. J.; Bittermann, Klaus; Buchanan, Maya K.; Kulp, Scott; Strauss, Benjamin H.; Kopp, Robert E.; Oppenheimer, Michael

    2018-03-01

    Sea-level rise (SLR) is magnifying the frequency and severity of extreme sea levels (ESLs) that can cause coastal flooding. The rate and amount of global mean sea-level (GMSL) rise is a function of the trajectory of global mean surface temperature (GMST). Therefore, temperature stabilization targets (e.g. 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C of warming above pre-industrial levels, as from the Paris Agreement) have important implications for coastal flood risk. Here, we assess, in a global network of tide gauges, the differences in the expected frequencies of ESLs between scenarios that stabilize GMST warming at 1.5 °C, 2.0 °C, and 2.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. We employ probabilistic, localized SLR projections and long-term hourly tide gauge records to estimate the expected frequencies of historical and future ESLs for the 21st and 22nd centuries. By 2100, under 1.5 °C, 2.0 °C, and 2.5 °C GMST stabilization, the median GMSL is projected to rise 48 cm (90% probability of 28-82 cm), 56 cm (28-96 cm), and 58 cm (37-93 cm), respectively. As an independent comparison, a semi-empirical sea level model calibrated to temperature and GMSL over the past two millennia estimates median GMSL rise within 7-8 cm of these projections. By 2150, relative to the 2.0 °C scenario and based on median sea level projections, GMST stabilization of 1.5 °C spares the inundation of lands currently home to about 5 million people, including 60 000 individuals currently residing in Small Island Developing States. We quantify projected changes to the expected frequency of historical 10-, 100-, and 500-year ESL events using frequency amplification factors that incorporate uncertainty in both local SLR and historical return periods of ESLs. By 2150, relative to a 2.0 °C scenario, the reduction in the frequency amplification of the historical 100 year ESL event arising from a 1.5 °C GMST stabilization is greatest in the eastern United States, with ESL event

  19. Changes in Extreme Maximum Temperature Events and Population Exposure in China under Global Warming Scenarios of 1.5 and 2.0°C: Analysis Using the Regional Climate Model COSMO-CLM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhan, Mingjin; Li, Xiucang; Sun, Hemin; Zhai, Jianqing; Jiang, Tong; Wang, Yanjun

    2018-02-01

    We used daily maximum temperature data (1986-2100) from the COSMO-CLM (COnsortium for Small-scale MOdeling in CLimate Mode) regional climate model and the population statistics for China in 2010 to determine the frequency, intensity, coverage, and population exposure of extreme maximum temperature events (EMTEs) with the intensity-area-duration method. Between 1986 and 2005 (reference period), the frequency, intensity, and coverage of EMTEs are 1330-1680 times yr-1, 31.4-33.3°C, and 1.76-3.88 million km2, respectively. The center of the most severe EMTEs is located in central China and 179.5-392.8 million people are exposed to EMTEs annually. Relative to 1986-2005, the frequency, intensity, and coverage of EMTEs increase by 1.13-6.84, 0.32-1.50, and 15.98%-30.68%, respectively, under 1.5°C warming; under 2.0°C warming, the increases are 1.73-12.48, 0.64-2.76, and 31.96%-50.00%, respectively. It is possible that both the intensity and coverage of future EMTEs could exceed the most severe EMTEs currently observed. Two new centers of EMTEs are projected to develop under 1.5°C warming, one in North China and the other in Southwest China. Under 2.0°C warming, a fourth EMTE center is projected to develop in Northwest China. Under 1.5 and 2.0°C warming, population exposure is projected to increase by 23.2%-39.2% and 26.6%-48%, respectively. From a regional perspective, population exposure is expected to increase most rapidly in Southwest China. A greater proportion of the population in North, Northeast, and Northwest China will be exposed to EMTEs under 2.0°C warming. The results show that a warming world will lead to increases in the intensity, frequency, and coverage of EMTEs. Warming of 2.0°C will lead to both more severe EMTEs and the exposure of more people to EMTEs. Given the probability of the increased occurrence of more severe EMTEs than in the past, it is vitally important to China that the global temperature increase is limited within 1.5°C.

  20. Hidden conformal symmetry of extremal black holes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen Bin; Long Jiang; Zhang Jiaju

    2010-01-01

    We study the hidden conformal symmetry of extremal black holes. We introduce a new set of conformal coordinates to write the SL(2,R) generators. We find that the Laplacian of the scalar field in many extremal black holes, including Kerr(-Newman), Reissner-Nordstrom, warped AdS 3 , and null warped black holes, could be written in terms of the SL(2,R) quadratic Casimir. This suggests that there exist dual conformal field theory (CFT) descriptions of these black holes. From the conformal coordinates, the temperatures of the dual CFTs could be read directly. For the extremal black hole, the Hawking temperature is vanishing. Correspondingly, only the left (right) temperature of the dual CFT is nonvanishing, and the excitations of the other sector are suppressed. In the probe limit, we compute the scattering amplitudes of the scalar off the extremal black holes and find perfect agreement with the CFT prediction.

  1. Extreme value distributions

    CERN Document Server

    Ahsanullah, Mohammad

    2016-01-01

    The aim of the book is to give a through account of the basic theory of extreme value distributions. The book cover a wide range of materials available to date. The central ideas and results of extreme value distributions are presented. The book rwill be useful o applied statisticians as well statisticians interrested to work in the area of extreme value distributions.vmonograph presents the central ideas and results of extreme value distributions.The monograph gives self-contained of theory and applications of extreme value distributions.

  2. Extreme temperature trends in the equatorial region of Brazil: Case study of the state of Ceará Tendência das temperaturas extremas em região equatorial brasileira: estudo de caso do estado do Ceará

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eunice Maia de Andrade

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Despite uncertainties as to the real causes, there is a large amount of evidence of climatic change on Earth. With the objective of investigating changes in extreme air temperatures, as well as the local effects of these changes, eight data sets, collected throughout the State of Ceará in Brazil, were analyzed. Four series of data were obtained from the semi-arid region, three from the coastal zone, and one from a mountainous region. To quantify the changes that occurred during the study period, variations in maximum and minimum temperatures were calculated in relation to the mean of each data series. The annual rates of temperature increase were estimated from the angular coefficients of the best-fit lines. The results showed that although there are differences in trends between stations, there was a systematic increase in the maximum and minimum temperature in the nineties, which was especially evident in the following decade. The highest rates of increase were recorded for the minimum temperatures (from 9.0 to 8.3 °C per century for the stations at Guaramiranga and Crateús respectively. These data provide evidence for a greater retention of energy in the form of sensible heat during the night, possibly due to a more difficult energy exchange between the surface and the atmosphere.Apesar das incertezas sobre as verdadeiras causas, há uma grande quantidade de evidências de mudanças climáticas na Terra. Com o objetivo de investigar as mudanças em temperaturas extremas do ar, bem como os efeitos locais das mudanças, oito conjuntos de dados coletados ao longo do Estado do Ceará, Brasil, foram analisados. Quatro série de dados foram obtidas a partir da região semi-árida, três da zona costeira e uma de uma região montanhosa. Para quantificar as mudanças que ocorreram durante o período do estudo, as variações nas temperaturas máximas e mínimas foram calculadas em relação à média de cada série. As taxas anuais de aumento de

  3. Natural gas monthly

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1998-01-01

    The Natural Gas Monthly highlights activities, events, and analyses of interest to public and private sector organizations associated with the natural gas industry. Volume and price data are presented each month for natural gas production, distribution, consumption, and interstate pipeline activities. Producer-related activities and underground storage data are also reported. From time to time, the Natural Gas Monthly features articles designed to assist readers in using and interpreting natural gas information.

  4. Monthly Climatic Data for the World

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Publication of monthly mean temperature, pressure, precipitation, vapor pressure, and hours of sunshine for approximately 2,000 surface data collection stations...

  5. Moving in extreme environments: what's extreme and who decides?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cotter, James David; Tipton, Michael J

    2014-01-01

    Humans work, rest and play in immensely varied extreme environments. The term 'extreme' typically refers to insufficiency or excess of one or more stressors, such as thermal energy or gravity. Individuals' behavioural and physiological capacity to endure and enjoy such environments varies immensely. Adverse effects of acute exposure to these environments are readily identifiable (e.g. heat stroke or bone fracture), whereas adverse effects of chronic exposure (e.g. stress fractures or osteoporosis) may be as important but much less discernable. Modern societies have increasingly sought to protect people from such stressors and, in that way, minimise their adverse effects. Regulations are thus established, and advice is provided on what is 'acceptable' exposure. Examples include work/rest cycles in the heat, hydration regimes, rates of ascent to and duration of stay at altitude and diving depth. While usually valuable and well intentioned, it is important to realise the breadth and importance of limitations associated with such guidelines. Regulations and advisories leave less room for self-determination, learning and perhaps adaptation. Regulations based on stress (e.g. work/rest cycles relative to WBGT) are more practical but less direct than those based on strain (e.g. core temperature), but even the latter can be substantively limited (e.g. by lack of criterion validation and allowance for behavioural regulation in the research on which they are based). Extreme Physiology & Medicine is publishing a series of reviews aimed at critically examining the issues involved with self- versus regulation-controlled human movement acutely and chronically in extreme environments. These papers, arising from a research symposium in 2013, are about the impact of people engaging in such environments and the effect of rules and guidelines on their safety, enjoyment, autonomy and productivity. The reviews will cover occupational heat stress, sporting heat stress, hydration, diving

  6. How extreme is extreme hourly precipitation?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papalexiou, Simon Michael; Dialynas, Yannis G.; Pappas, Christoforos

    2016-04-01

    The importance of accurate representation of precipitation at fine time scales (e.g., hourly), directly associated with flash flood events, is crucial in hydrological design and prediction. The upper part of a probability distribution, known as the distribution tail, determines the behavior of extreme events. In general, and loosely speaking, tails can be categorized in two families: the subexponential and the hyperexponential family, with the first generating more intense and more frequent extremes compared to the latter. In past studies, the focus has been mainly on daily precipitation, with the Gamma distribution being the most popular model. Here, we investigate the behaviour of tails of hourly precipitation by comparing the upper part of empirical distributions of thousands of records with three general types of tails corresponding to the Pareto, Lognormal, and Weibull distributions. Specifically, we use thousands of hourly rainfall records from all over the USA. The analysis indicates that heavier-tailed distributions describe better the observed hourly rainfall extremes in comparison to lighter tails. Traditional representations of the marginal distribution of hourly rainfall may significantly deviate from observed behaviours of extremes, with direct implications on hydroclimatic variables modelling and engineering design.

  7. Progress report, 24 months

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Juhl, Thomas Winther; Nielsen, Jakob Skov

    The work performed during the past 12 months (months 13 – 24) of the project has included the conclusion of Task 1 – Fundamental Studies and Task 2 – Multimirror Cutting Head Design. Work on Task 3 – Compact Cutting Head Design, and Task 4 – Interface Design has been carried out and the tests...... of the multimirror cutting head have been started....

  8. Progress report, 36 months

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Juhl, Thomas Winther; Nielsen, Jakob Skov

    The work performed during the past 12 months (months 13 – 24) of the project has included the conclusion of Task 1 – Fundamental Studies and Task 2 – Multimirror Cutting Head Design. Work on Task 3 – Compact Cutting Head Design, and Task 4 – Interface Design has been carried out and the tests...... of the multimirror cutting head have been started....

  9. Optimization with Extremal Dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boettcher, Stefan; Percus, Allon G.

    2001-01-01

    We explore a new general-purpose heuristic for finding high-quality solutions to hard discrete optimization problems. The method, called extremal optimization, is inspired by self-organized criticality, a concept introduced to describe emergent complexity in physical systems. Extremal optimization successively updates extremely undesirable variables of a single suboptimal solution, assigning them new, random values. Large fluctuations ensue, efficiently exploring many local optima. We use extremal optimization to elucidate the phase transition in the 3-coloring problem, and we provide independent confirmation of previously reported extrapolations for the ground-state energy of ±J spin glasses in d=3 and 4

  10. Seasonal Cycle in German Daily Precipitation Extremes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Madlen Fischer

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The seasonal cycle of extreme precipitation in Germany is investigated by fitting statistical models to monthly maxima of daily precipitation sums for 2,865 rain gauges. The basis is a non-stationary generalized extreme value (GEV distribution variation of location and scale parameters. The negative log-likelihood serves as the forecast error for a cross validation to select adequate orders of the harmonic functions for each station. For nearly all gauges considered, the seasonal model is more appropriate to estimate return levels on a monthly scale than a stationary GEV used for individual months. The 100-year return-levels show the influence of cyclones in the western, and convective events in the eastern part of Germany. In addition to resolving the seasonality, we use a simulation study to show that annual return levels can be estimated more precisely from a monthly-resolved seasonal model than from a stationary model based on annual maxima.

  11. Sensitivity of European wheat to extreme weather

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mäkinen, H; Kaseva, J; Trnka, M

    2018-01-01

    The frequency and intensity of extreme weather is increasing concomitant with changes in the global climate change. Although wheat is the most important food crop in Europe, there is currently no comprehensive empirical information available regarding the sensitivity of European wheat to extreme...... weather. In this study, we assessed the sensitivity of European wheat yields to extreme weather related to phenology (sowing, heading) in cultivar trials across Europe (latitudes 37.21° to 61.34° and longitudes −6.02° to 26.24°) during the period 1991–2014. All the observed agro-climatic extremes (≥31 °C...... wheat cultivars that responded positively (+10%) to drought after sowing, or frost during winter (−15 °C and −20 °C). Positive responses to extremes were often shown by cultivars associated with specific regions, such as good performance under high temperatures by southern-origin cultivars. Consequently...

  12. Spectral density regression for bivariate extremes

    KAUST Repository

    Castro Camilo, Daniela

    2016-05-11

    We introduce a density regression model for the spectral density of a bivariate extreme value distribution, that allows us to assess how extremal dependence can change over a covariate. Inference is performed through a double kernel estimator, which can be seen as an extension of the Nadaraya–Watson estimator where the usual scalar responses are replaced by mean constrained densities on the unit interval. Numerical experiments with the methods illustrate their resilience in a variety of contexts of practical interest. An extreme temperature dataset is used to illustrate our methods. © 2016 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg

  13. Classifying Returns as Extreme

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christiansen, Charlotte

    2014-01-01

    I consider extreme returns for the stock and bond markets of 14 EU countries using two classification schemes: One, the univariate classification scheme from the previous literature that classifies extreme returns for each market separately, and two, a novel multivariate classification scheme tha...

  14. Temperature, salinity and dissolved oxygen profile data from globally distributed Argo profiling floats through the month of August 2017 for the Global Argo Data Repository, 1995-09-07 to 2017-08-31 (NCEI Accession 0042682)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — These data represent all data collected from Argo profiling floats through the current month (August 2017). The NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information...

  15. TARP Monthly Housing Scorecard

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of the Treasury — Treasury and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) jointly produce a Monthly Housing Scorecard on the health of the nation’s housing market. The...

  16. Molecule of the Month

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Molecule of the Month - Adamantane - A Plastic Piece of Diamond. J Chandrasekhar. Volume 16 Issue 12 ... Keywords. Adamantane; diamondoid systems; plastic crystals. ... Resonance – Journal of Science Education | News. © 2017 Indian ...

  17. RELIGIOUS EXTREMISM AS A CHALLENGE TO TERTIARY ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    IK

    2016-07-01

    Jul 1, 2016 ... agenda and manipulate their gullible followers in order to impose their .... So far 165 children, some of them not up to 9 months old, have been .... If extremism may be easily implemented in the Nigerian soil, with the dire.

  18. Triticale in the years with extreme weather conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nožinić Miloš

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Unlike other grain crops, the area under triticale in the Republic of Srpska has been expanding every year. Since the introduction of this plant species in the broad production began a few years ago, the finding of the optimal variety agrotechnique in different environmental conditions has great importance. This paper deals with the results of the trials from seven locations in two very extreme vegetation seasons (2002/03, 2006/07. High yield of triticale on the location Banja Luka (150 m alt. with five triticale varieties in four sowing rates in the replication trial in very unfavorable weather conditions in 2003, points to emphasized triticale tolerance to high temperatures and drought. High grain yield of triticale in the trials on the locations Banja Luka, Butmir (460 m alt. and Živince (230 m alt. was obtained in 2007 too, when all vegetation months had higher mean temperature than long term average, what is a unique appearance in the entire 'meteorological history'. In the paper the appearance of the earliest triticale heading is described and explained. It happened at one production trial on Manjača (250 m alt. in the first decade of March in 2007. On the another location on Manjača (450 m alt., in the macrotrial, rye showed much higher tolerance to extreme soil acidity, than triticale. Obtained results and unusual appearances on triticale are helpful for the further research of the stability and adaptability of more important triticale traits. .

  19. Thermodynamics of extremal rotating thin shells in an extremal BTZ spacetime and the extremal black hole entropy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lemos, José P. S.; Minamitsuji, Masato; Zaslavskii, Oleg B.

    2017-02-01

    In a (2 +1 )-dimensional spacetime with a negative cosmological constant, the thermodynamics and the entropy of an extremal rotating thin shell, i.e., an extremal rotating ring, are investigated. The outer and inner regions with respect to the shell are taken to be the Bañados-Teitelbom-Zanelli (BTZ) spacetime and the vacuum ground state anti-de Sitter spacetime, respectively. By applying the first law of thermodynamics to the extremal thin shell, one shows that the entropy of the shell is an arbitrary well-behaved function of the gravitational area A+ alone, S =S (A+). When the thin shell approaches its own gravitational radius r+ and turns into an extremal rotating BTZ black hole, it is found that the entropy of the spacetime remains such a function of A+, both when the local temperature of the shell at the gravitational radius is zero and nonzero. It is thus vindicated by this analysis that extremal black holes, here extremal BTZ black holes, have different properties from the corresponding nonextremal black holes, which have a definite entropy, the Bekenstein-Hawking entropy S (A+)=A/+4G , where G is the gravitational constant. It is argued that for extremal black holes, in particular for extremal BTZ black holes, one should set 0 ≤S (A+)≤A/+4G;i.e., the extremal black hole entropy has values in between zero and the maximum Bekenstein-Hawking entropy A/+4 G . Thus, rather than having just two entropies for extremal black holes, as previous results have debated, namely, 0 and A/+4 G , it is shown here that extremal black holes, in particular extremal BTZ black holes, may have a continuous range of entropies, limited by precisely those two entropies. Surely, the entropy that a particular extremal black hole picks must depend on past processes, notably on how it was formed. A remarkable relation between the third law of thermodynamics and the impossibility for a massive body to reach the velocity of light is also found. In addition, in the procedure, it

  20. Prevailing trends of climatic extremes across Indus-Delta of Sindh-Pakistan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abbas, Farhat; Rehman, Iqra; Adrees, Muhammad; Ibrahim, Muhammad; Saleem, Farhan; Ali, Shafaqat; Rizwan, Muhammad; Salik, Muhammad Raza

    2018-02-01

    This study examines the variability and change in the patterns of climatic extremes experienced in Indus-Delta of Sindh province of Pakistan, comprising regions of Karachi, Badin, Mohenjodaro, and Rohri. The homogenized daily minimum and maximum temperature and precipitation data for a 36-year period were used to calculate 13 and 11 indices of temperature and precipitation extremes with the help of RClimDex, a program written in the statistical software package R. A non-parametric Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope estimates were used to determine the statistical significance and magnitude of the calculated trend. Temperatures of summer days and tropical nights increased in the region with overall significant warming trends for monthly maximum temperature as well as for warm days and nights reflecting dry conditions in the study area. The warm extremes and nighttime temperature indices showed greater trends than cold extremes and daytime indices depicting an overall warming trends in the Delta. Historic decrease in the acreage of major crops and over 33% decrease in agriculture credit for Sindh are the indicators of adverse impacts of warmer and drier weather on Sindh agriculture. Trends reported for Karachi and Badin are expected to decrease rice cultivation, hatching of fisheries, and mangroves forest surrounding these cities. Increase in the prevailing temperature trends will lead to increasingly hotter and drier summers resulting to constraints on cotton, wheat, and rice yield in Rohri and Mohenjodaro areas due to increased crop water requirements that may be met with additional groundwater pumping; nonetheless, the depleted groundwater resources would have a direct impact on the region's economy.

  1. Extremal surface barriers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Engelhardt, Netta; Wall, Aron C.

    2014-01-01

    We present a generic condition for Lorentzian manifolds to have a barrier that limits the reach of boundary-anchored extremal surfaces of arbitrary dimension. We show that any surface with nonpositive extrinsic curvature is a barrier, in the sense that extremal surfaces cannot be continuously deformed past it. Furthermore, the outermost barrier surface has nonnegative extrinsic curvature. Under certain conditions, we show that the existence of trapped surfaces implies a barrier, and conversely. In the context of AdS/CFT, these barriers imply that it is impossible to reconstruct the entire bulk using extremal surfaces. We comment on the implications for the firewall controversy

  2. Attribution of climate extreme events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trenberth, Kevin E.; Fasullo, John T.; Shepherd, Theodore G.

    2015-08-01

    There is a tremendous desire to attribute causes to weather and climate events that is often challenging from a physical standpoint. Headlines attributing an event solely to either human-induced climate change or natural variability can be misleading when both are invariably in play. The conventional attribution framework struggles with dynamically driven extremes because of the small signal-to-noise ratios and often uncertain nature of the forced changes. Here, we suggest that a different framing is desirable, which asks why such extremes unfold the way they do. Specifically, we suggest that it is more useful to regard the extreme circulation regime or weather event as being largely unaffected by climate change, and question whether known changes in the climate system's thermodynamic state affected the impact of the particular event. Some examples briefly illustrated include 'snowmaggedon' in February 2010, superstorm Sandy in October 2012 and supertyphoon Haiyan in November 2013, and, in more detail, the Boulder floods of September 2013, all of which were influenced by high sea surface temperatures that had a discernible human component.

  3. Exposure to extreme heat and precipitation events associated with increased risk of hospitalization for asthma in Maryland, U.S.A.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soneja, Sutyajeet; Jiang, Chengsheng; Fisher, Jared; Upperman, Crystal Romeo; Mitchell, Clifford; Sapkota, Amir

    2016-04-27

    Several studies have investigated the association between asthma exacerbations and exposures to ambient temperature and precipitation. However, limited data exists regarding how extreme events, projected to grow in frequency, intensity, and duration in the future in response to our changing climate, will impact the risk of hospitalization for asthma. The objective of our study was to quantify the association between frequency of extreme heat and precipitation events and increased risk of hospitalization for asthma in Maryland between 2000 and 2012. We used a time-stratified case-crossover design to examine the association between exposure to extreme heat and precipitation events and risk of hospitalization for asthma (ICD-9 code 493, n = 115,923). Occurrence of extreme heat events in Maryland increased the risk of same day hospitalization for asthma (lag 0) by 3 % (Odds Ratio (OR): 1.03, 95 % Confidence Interval (CI): 1.00, 1.07), with a considerably higher risk observed for extreme heat events that occur during summer months (OR: 1.23, 95 % CI: 1.15, 1.33). Likewise, summertime extreme precipitation events increased the risk of hospitalization for asthma by 11 % in Maryland (OR: 1.11, 95 % CI: 1.06, 1.17). Across age groups, increase in risk for asthma hospitalization from exposure to extreme heat event during the summer months was most pronounced among youth and adults, while those related to extreme precipitation event was highest among ≤4 year olds. Exposure to extreme heat and extreme precipitation events, particularly during summertime, is associated with increased risk of hospitalization for asthma in Maryland. Our results suggest that projected increases in frequency of extreme heat and precipitation event will have significant impact on public health.

  4. Recent Development on the NOAA's Global Surface Temperature Dataset

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, H. M.; Huang, B.; Boyer, T.; Lawrimore, J. H.; Menne, M. J.; Rennie, J.

    2016-12-01

    Global Surface Temperature (GST) is one of the most widely used indicators for climate trend and extreme analyses. A widely used GST dataset is the NOAA merged land-ocean surface temperature dataset known as NOAAGlobalTemp (formerly MLOST). The NOAAGlobalTemp had recently been updated from version 3.5.4 to version 4. The update includes a significant improvement in the ocean surface component (Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature or ERSST, from version 3b to version 4) which resulted in an increased temperature trends in recent decades. Since then, advancements in both the ocean component (ERSST) and land component (GHCN-Monthly) have been made, including the inclusion of Argo float SSTs and expanded EOT modes in ERSST, and the use of ISTI databank in GHCN-Monthly. In this presentation, we describe the impact of those improvements on the merged global temperature dataset, in terms of global trends and other aspects.

  5. tavgM_3d_tdt_Cp: MERRA 3D IAU Tendency, Temperature, Monthly Mean 1.25 x 1.25 degree V5.2.0 (MATMCPTDT) at GES DISC

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The MATMCPTDT or tavgM_3d_tdt_Cp data product is the MERRA Data Assimilation System 3-Dimensional temperature tendencies that is time averaged on pressure levels at...

  6. Monthly progress report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1975-06-01

    This monthly report of the SCPRI exposes an interpretation of the principal results concerning the surveillance of radioactivity in the environment: atmospheric dusts(air at ground level, high altitude air), rainwater, surface water, underground water, irrigation water, drinking water, food chain (milk, plants, cattle, fish), sea water around nuclear plant sites and other sites. The activities of various radioisotopes are presented in tables ( 7 Be, 95 Zr and 95 Nb, 103 Ru, 131 I, 137 Cs, 140 Ba and 140 La, 90 Sr, 106 Ru and 106 Rh, 226 Ra, 54 Mn, U and T). A monthly bibliographic selection is also presented [fr

  7. Monthly progress report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1975-03-01

    This monthly report of the SCPRI exposes an interpretation of the principal results concerning the surveillance of radioactivity in the environment: atmospheric dusts (air at ground level, high altitude air), rainwater, surface water, underground water, irrigation water, drinking water, food chain (milk, plants, cattle, fish), sea water around nuclear plant sites and other sites. The activities of various radioisotopes are presented in tables ( 7 Be, 95 Zr and 95 Nb, 103 Ru, 131 I, 137 Cs, 140 Ba and 140 La, 90 Sr, 106 Ru and 106 Rh, 226 Ra, 54 Mn, U and T). A monthly bibliographic selection is also presented [fr

  8. 24-month fuel cycles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rosenstein, R.G.; Sipes, D.E.; Beall, R.H.; Donovan, E.J.

    1986-01-01

    Twenty-four month reload cycles can potentially lessen total power generation costs. While 24-month cores increase purchased fuel costs, the longer cycles reduce the number of refueling outages and thus enhance plant availability; men-rem exposure to site personnel and other costs associated with reload core design and licensing are also reduced. At dual unit sites an operational advantage can be realized by refueling each plant alternately on a 1-year offset basis. This results in a single outage per site per year which can be scheduled for off-peak periods or when replacement power costs are low

  9. Monthly progress report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1975-04-01

    This monthly report of the SCPRI exposes an interpretation of the principal results concerning the surveillance of radioactivity in the environment: atmospheric dusts (air at ground level, high altitude air), rainwater, surface water, underground water, irrigation water, drinking water, food chain (milk plants, cattle, fish), seawater around nuclear plant sites and other sites. The activities of various radioisotopes are presented in tables ( 7 Be, 95 Zr and 95 Nb, 103 Ru, 131 I, 137 Cs, 140 Ba and 140 La, 90 Sr, 106 Ru and 106 Rh, 226 Ra, 54 Mn U and T). A monthly bibliographic selection is also presented [fr

  10. Monthly progress report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1975-01-01

    This monthly report of the SCPRI exposes an interpretation of the principal results concerning the surveillance of radioactivity in the environment: atmospheric dusts (air at ground level, high altitude air), rainwater, surface water, underground water, irrigation water, drinking water, food chain (milk, plants, cattle, fish), sea water around nuclear plant sites and other sites. The activities of various radioisotopes are presented in tables ( 7 Be, 95 Zr and 95 Nb, 103 Ru, 131 I, 137 Cs, 140 Ba and 140 La, 90 Sr, 106 Ru and 106 Rh, 226 Ra, 54 Mn, U and T). A monthly bibliographic selection is also presented [fr

  11. Monthly progress report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1975-02-01

    This monthly report of the SCPRI exposes an interpretation of the principal results concerning the surveillance of radioactivity in the environment: atmospheric dusts (air at ground level, high altitude air), rainwater, surface water, underground water, irrigation water, drinking water, food chain (milk, plants, cattle, fish), sea water around nuclear plant sites and other sites. The activities of various radioisotopes are presented in tables ( 7 Be, 95 Zr and 95 Nb, 103 Ru, 131 I, 137 Cs, 140 Ba and 140 La, 90 Sr, 106 Ru and 106 Rh, 226 Ra, 54 Mn, U and T). A monthly bibliographic selection is also presented [fr

  12. Statistics of Extremes

    KAUST Repository

    Davison, Anthony C.; Huser, Raphaë l

    2015-01-01

    Statistics of extremes concerns inference for rare events. Often the events have never yet been observed, and their probabilities must therefore be estimated by extrapolation of tail models fitted to available data. Because data concerning the event

  13. Analysis of extreme events

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Khuluse, S

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available ) determination of the distribution of the damage and (iii) preparation of products that enable prediction of future risk events. The methodology provided by extreme value theory can also be a powerful tool in risk analysis...

  14. Acute lower extremity ischaemia

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Acute lower extremity ischaemia. Acute lower limb ischaemia is a surgical emergency. ... is ~1.5 cases per 10 000 persons per year. Acute ischaemia ... Table 2. Clinical features discriminating embolic from thrombotic ALEXI. Clinical features.

  15. Molecule of the Month

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Resonance – Journal of Science Education; Volume 1; Issue 2. Molecule of the Month Isomers of Benzene - Still Pursuing Dreams. J Chandrasekhar. Feature Article Volume 1 Issue 2 February 1996 pp 80-83. Fulltext. Click here to view fulltext PDF. Permanent link:

  16. Molecule of the Month

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Resonance – Journal of Science Education; Volume 16; Issue 12. Molecule of the Month - A Stable Dibismuthene - A Compound with a Bi-Bi Double Bond. V Chandrasekhar. Volume 16 ... Author Affiliations. V Chandrasekhar1. Department of Chemistry, Indian Institute of Technology, Kanpur 208 016, India.

  17. Monthly energy review

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1997-12-01

    This document presents an overview of the Energy Information Administration`s (EIA) recent monthly energy statistics. The statistics cover the major activities of U.S. production, consumption, trade, stocks, and prices for petroleum, natural gas, coal, electricity, and nuclear energy. Also included are international energy and thermal and metric conversion factors.

  18. Photos of the month

    CERN Multimedia

    Claudia Marcelloni de Oliveira

    Congratulations to Adele Rimoldi, ATLAS physicist from Pavia, who ran her first marathon in New York last month. Adele completed the 42.2 km in a time of 4:49:19. She sure makes it look easy!!! The ATLAS pixel service quarter panel in SR1

  19. Molecule of the Month

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Resonance – Journal of Science Education; Volume 2; Issue 5. Molecule of the Month Molecular–Chameleon: Solvatochromism at its Iridescent Best! Photon Rao. Feature Article Volume 2 Issue 5 May 1997 pp 69-72. Fulltext. Click here to view fulltext PDF. Permanent link:

  20. Soil surface temperatures reveal moderation of the urban heat island effect by trees and shrubs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Edmondson, Jill L; Stott, Iain; Davies, Zoe G

    2016-01-01

    months increased by 0.6 °C over the 5 km from the city outskirts to the centre. Trees and shrubs in non-domestic greenspace reduced mean maximum daily soil surface temperatures in the summer by 5.7 °C compared to herbaceous vegetation, but tended to maintain slightly higher temperatures in winter. Trees...... in domestic gardens, which tend to be smaller, were less effective at reducing summer soil surface temperatures. Our findings reveal that the UHI effects soil temperatures at a city-wide scale, and that in their moderating urban soil surface temperature extremes, trees and shrubs may help to reduce...

  1. Changes in Extremely Hot Summers over the Global Land Area under Various Warming Targets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Lei; Huang, Jianbin; Luo, Yong; Yao, Yao; Zhao, Zongci

    2015-01-01

    Summer temperature extremes over the global land area were investigated by comparing 26 models of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) with observations from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) and the Climate Research Unit (CRU). Monthly data of the observations and models were averaged for each season, and statistics were calculated for individual models before averaging them to obtain ensemble means. The summers with temperature anomalies (relative to 1951-1980) exceeding 3σ (σ is based on the local internal variability) are defined as "extremely hot". The models well reproduced the statistical characteristics evolution, and partly captured the spatial distributions of historical summer temperature extremes. If the global mean temperature increases 2°C relative to the pre-industrial level, "extremely hot" summers are projected to occur over nearly 40% of the land area (multi-model ensemble mean projection). Summers that exceed 5σ warming are projected to occur over approximately 10% of the global land area, which were rarely observed during the reference period. Scenarios reaching warming levels of 3°C to 5°C were also analyzed. After exceeding the 5°C warming target, "extremely hot" summers are projected to occur throughout the entire global land area, and summers that exceed 5σ warming would become common over 70% of the land area. In addition, the areas affected by "extremely hot" summers are expected to rapidly expand by more than 25%/°C as the global mean temperature increases by up to 3°C before slowing to less than 16%/°C as the temperature continues to increase by more than 3°C. The area that experiences summers with warming of 5σ or more above the warming target of 2°C is likely to maintain rapid expansion of greater than 17%/°C. To reduce the impacts and damage from severely hot summers, the global mean temperature increase should remain low.

  2. Global patterns of NDVI-indicated vegetation extremes and their sensitivity to climate extremes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu Guo; Liu Hongyan; Yin Yi

    2013-01-01

    Extremes in climate have significant impacts on ecosystems and are expected to increase under future climate change. Extremes in vegetation could capture such impacts and indicate the vulnerability of ecosystems, but currently have not received a global long-term assessment. In this study, a robust method has been developed to detect significant extremes (low values) in biweekly time series of global normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) from 1982 to 2006 and thus to acquire a global pattern of vegetation extreme frequency. This pattern coincides with vegetation vulnerability patterns suggested by earlier studies using different methods over different time spans, indicating a consistent mechanism of regulation. Vegetation extremes were found to aggregate in Amazonia and in the semi-arid and semi-humid regions in low and middle latitudes, while they seldom occurred in high latitudes. Among the environmental variables studied, extreme low precipitation has the highest slope against extreme vegetation. For the eight biomes analyzed, these slopes are highest in temperate broadleaf forest and temperate grassland, suggesting a higher sensitivity in these environments. The results presented here contradict the hypothesis that vegetation in water-limited semi-arid and semi-humid regions might be adapted to drought and suggest that vegetation in these regions (especially temperate broadleaf forest and temperate grassland) is highly prone to vegetation extreme events under more severe precipitation extremes. It is also suggested here that more attention be paid to precipitation-induced vegetation changes than to temperature-induced events. (letter)

  3. Extreme Programming: Maestro Style

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norris, Jeffrey; Fox, Jason; Rabe, Kenneth; Shu, I-Hsiang; Powell, Mark

    2009-01-01

    "Extreme Programming: Maestro Style" is the name of a computer programming methodology that has evolved as a custom version of a methodology, called extreme programming that has been practiced in the software industry since the late 1990s. The name of this version reflects its origin in the work of the Maestro team at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory that develops software for Mars exploration missions. Extreme programming is oriented toward agile development of software resting on values of simplicity, communication, testing, and aggressiveness. Extreme programming involves use of methods of rapidly building and disseminating institutional knowledge among members of a computer-programming team to give all the members a shared view that matches the view of the customers for whom the software system is to be developed. Extreme programming includes frequent planning by programmers in collaboration with customers, continually examining and rewriting code in striving for the simplest workable software designs, a system metaphor (basically, an abstraction of the system that provides easy-to-remember software-naming conventions and insight into the architecture of the system), programmers working in pairs, adherence to a set of coding standards, collaboration of customers and programmers, frequent verbal communication, frequent releases of software in small increments of development, repeated testing of the developmental software by both programmers and customers, and continuous interaction between the team and the customers. The environment in which the Maestro team works requires the team to quickly adapt to changing needs of its customers. In addition, the team cannot afford to accept unnecessary development risk. Extreme programming enables the Maestro team to remain agile and provide high-quality software and service to its customers. However, several factors in the Maestro environment have made it necessary to modify some of the conventional extreme

  4. The need of the change of the conceptualisation of hydrologic processes under extreme conditions – taking reference evapotranspiration as an example

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Liu

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available What a hydrological model displays is the relationships between the output and input in daily, monthly, yearly and other temporal scales. In the case of climate change or other environment changes, the input of the hydrological model may show a gradual or abrupt change. There have been numerous documented studies to explore the response of output of the hydrological models to the change of the input with scenario simulation. Most of the studies assumed that the conceptualisation of hydrologic processes will remain, which may be true for the gradual change of the input. However, under extreme conditions the conceptualisation of hydrologic processes may be completely changed. Taking an example of the Allen's formula to calculate crop reference evapotranspiration (ET0 as a simple hydrological model, we analyze the alternation of the extreme in ET0 from 1955 to 2012 at the Chongling Experimental Station located in Hebei Province, China. The relationships between ET0 and the meteorological factors for the average values, minimum (maximum values at daily, monthly and annual scales are revealed. It is found the extreme of the output can follow the extreme of the input better when their relationship is more linear. For non-liner relationship, the extreme of the input cannot at all be reflected from the extreme of the output. Relatively, extreme event at daily scale is harder to be shown than that at monthly scale. The result implicates that a routine model may not be able to catch the response to extreme events and it is even more so as we extrapolate models to higher temperature/CO2 conditions in the future. Some possible choices for the improvements are suggested for predicting hydrological extremes.

  5. Nonlinear Impact of Temperature on Mortality in France

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, A. T.

    2016-12-01

    Anthropogenic climate change is posing unprecedented challenges to human welfare, yet there is much uncertainty about the cost of its impact. Accurate quantification of the social cost of carbon is crucial for designing effective climate policies that reduce emissions and mitigate the adverse impact of global warming, and human health is an important component of the calculation. Despite a growing body of literature documenting the relationship between temperature and mortality in the U.S., similar results using nationwide data have not been clearly established in other countries. Using random monthly variations in temperature for over a decade, this paper finds a statistically significant nonlinear relationship between monthly mortality rate and daily temperature in France between 1998 and 2012. Extremely hot days are associated with significantly higher mortality rates: One additional day with a mean temperature above 30°C, relative to a day in the 12°C to 15°C range, leads to 10 extra all-age, all-gender monthly deaths per 100,000. The effect of cold temperatures is milder: An extremely cold day with an average temperature from -9 °C to -6 °C increases all-age, all-gender mortality rate by about 1.2 per 100,000 each month. There is also notable heterogeneity in the observed nonlinear relationship across age groups and gender, in which males and the elderly are generally more susceptible to extreme temperatures than females and the young. This highlights that children and youth may be well protected through adaptive behaviors, such as spending more time indoors in temperature-controlled rooms and staying hydrated. Compared to studies done in the U.S., extremely hot days >30°C leads to considerably more deaths in France. Preliminary evidence suggests that there has been very limited adaptation despite two prominent heat waves in 2003 and 2006, although further analysis of electricity consumption and air conditioning usage is needed to ascertain the extent to

  6. Electric power monthly

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, Sandra R.; Johnson, Melvin; McClevey, Kenneth; Calopedis, Stephen; Bolden, Deborah

    1992-05-01

    The Electric Power Monthly is prepared by the Survey Management Division; Office of Coal, Nuclear, Electric and Alternate Fuels, Energy Information Administration (EIA), Department of Energy. This publication provides monthly statistics at the national, Census division, and State levels for net generation, fuel consumption, fuel stocks, quantity and quality of fuel, cost of fuel, electricity sales, revenue, and average revenue per kilowatthour of electricity sold. Data on net generation, fuel consumption, fuel stocks, quantity and cost of fuel are also displayed for the North American Electric Reliability Council (NERC) regions. Additionally, statistics by company and plant are published in the EPM on capability of new plants, new generation, fuel consumption, fuel stocks, quantity and quality of fuel, and cost of fuel.

  7. Petroleum marketing monthly

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1995-08-01

    The Petroleum Marketing Monthly (PMM) provides information and statistical data on a variety of crude oils and refined petroleum products. The publication presents statistics on crude oil costs and refined petroleum products sales for use by industry, government, private sector analysts, educational institutions, and consumers. Data on crude oil include the domestic first purchase price, the f.o.b. and landed cost of imported crude oil, and the refiners` acquisition cost of crude oil. Refined petroleum product sales data include motor gasoline, distillates, residuals, aviation fuels, kerosene, and propane. The Petroleum Marketing Division, Office of Oil and Gas, Energy Information Administration ensures the accuracy, quality, and confidentiality of the published data in the Petroleum Marketing Monthly.

  8. Petroleum marketing monthly

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1996-07-01

    Petroleum Marketing Monthly (PPM) provides information and statistical data on a variety of crude oils and refined petroleum products. The publication presents statistics on crude oil costs and refined petroleum products sales for use by industry, government, private sector analysts, educational institutions, and consumers. Data on crude oil include the domestic first purchase price, the f.o. b. and landed cost of imported crude oil, and the refiners` acquisition cost of crude oil. Refined petroleum product sales data include motor gasoline, distillates, residuals, aviation fuels, kerosene, and propane. The Petroleum Marketing Division, Office of Oil and Gas, Energy Information Administration ensures the accuracy, quality, and confidentiality of the published data in the Petroleum Marketing Monthly.

  9. Petroleum marketing monthly

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1996-02-01

    The Petroleum Marketing Monthly (PMM) provides information and statistical data on a variety of crude oils and refined petroleum products. The publication presents statistics on crude oil costs and refined petroleum products sales for use by industry, government, private sector analysts, educational institutions, and consumers. Data on crude oil include the domestic first purchase price, the f.o.b. and landed cost of imported crude oil, and the refiners acquisition cost of crude oil. Refined petroleum product sales data include motor gasoline, distillates, residuals, aviation fuels, kerosene, and propane. The Petroleum Marketing Division, Office of Oil and Gas, Energy Information Administration ensures the accuracy, quality, and confidentiality of the published data in the Petroleum Marketing Monthly.

  10. Electric power monthly

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1995-08-01

    The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares the Electric Power Monthly (EPM) for a wide audience including Congress, Federal and State agencies, the electric utility industry, and the general public. This publication provides monthly statistics for net generation, fossil fuel consumption and stocks, quantity and quality of fossil fuels, cost of fossil fuels, electricity sales, revenue, and average revenue per kilowatthour of electricity sold. Data on net generation, fuel consumption, fuel stocks, quantity and cost of fossil fuels are also displayed for the North American Electric Reliability Council (NERC) regions. The EIA publishes statistics in the EPM on net generation by energy source, consumption, stocks, quantity, quality, and cost of fossil fuels; and capability of new generating units by company and plant. The purpose of this publication is to provide energy decisionmakers with accurate and timely information that may be used in forming various perspectives on electric issues that lie ahead.

  11. Medical Surveillance Monthly Report

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-12-01

    Illness Prevention and Sun Safety. “Sun Safety.” https:// phc.amedd.army.mil/ topics /discond/hipss/Pages/ SunSafety.aspx. Accessed on 7 December 2016. 22...febrile illness; however, after its wide- spread introduction into immunologically MSMR Vol. 23 No. 12 December 2016 Page 8 naïve populations, a...October 2016 (data as of 22 November 2016) MSMR’s Invitation to Readers Medical Surveillance Monthly Report (MSMR) invites readers to submit topics for

  12. Extreme meteorological conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Altinger de Schwarzkopf, M.L.

    1983-01-01

    Different meteorological variables which may reach significant extreme values, such as the windspeed and, in particular, its occurrence through tornadoes and hurricanes that necesarily incide and wich must be taken into account at the time of nuclear power plants' installation, are analyzed. For this kind of study, it is necessary to determine the basic phenomenum of design. Two criteria are applied to define the basic values of design for extreme meteorological variables. The first one determines the expected extreme value: it is obtained from analyzing the recurence of the phenomenum in a convened period of time, wich may be generally of 50 years. The second one determines the extreme value of low probability, taking into account the nuclear power plant's operating life -f.ex. 25 years- and considering, during said lapse, the occurrence probabilities of extreme meteorological phenomena. The values may be determined either by the deterministic method, which is based on the acknowledgement of the fundamental physical characteristics of the phenomena or by the probabilistic method, that aims to the analysis of historical statistical data. Brief comments are made on the subject in relation to the Argentine Republic area. (R.J.S.) [es

  13. Risk of hospitalization for fire-related burns during extreme cold weather.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ayoub, Aimina; Kosatsky, Tom; Smargiassi, Audrey; Bilodeau-Bertrand, Marianne; Auger, Nathalie

    2017-10-01

    Environmental factors are important predictors of fires, but no study has examined the association between outdoor temperature and fire-related burn injuries. We sought to investigate the relationship between extremely cold outdoor temperatures and the risk of hospitalization for fire-related burns. We carried out a time-stratified case-crossover study of 2470 patients hospitalized for fire-related burn injuries during cold months between 1989 and 2014 in Quebec, Canada. The main exposure was the minimum outdoor temperature on the day of and the day before the burn. We computed odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) to evaluate the relationship between minimum temperature and fire-related burns, and assessed how associations varied across sex and age. Exposure to extreme cold temperature was associated with a significantly higher risk of hospitalization for fire-related burns. Compared with 0°C, exposure to a minimum temperature of -30°C was associated with an OR of 1.51 (95% CI 1.22-1.87) for hospitalization for fire-related burns. The associations were somewhat stronger for women, youth, and the elderly. Compared with 0°C, a minimum temperature of -30°C was associated with an OR for fire-related burn hospitalization of 1.65 for women (95% CI 1.13-2.40), 1.60 for age fire-related burns. Measures to prevent fires should be implemented prior to the winter season, and enhanced during extreme cold. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Investigating Extreme Lifestyles through Mangrove Transcriptomics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dassanayake, Maheshi

    2009-01-01

    Mangroves represent phylogenetically diverse taxa in tropical coastal terrestrial habitats. They are extremophiles, evolutionarily adapted to tolerate flooding, anoxia, high temperatures, wind, and high and extremely variable salt conditions in typically resource-poor environments. The genetic basis for these adaptations is, however, virtually…

  15. QCD under extreme conditions: an informal discussion

    CERN Document Server

    Fraga, E.S.

    2015-05-22

    We present an informal discussion of some aspects of strong interactions un- der extreme conditions of temperature and density at an elementary level. This summarizes lectures delivered at the 2013 and 2015 CERN – Latin-American Schools of High-Energy Physics and is aimed at students working in experi- mental high-energy physics.

  16. Extremely deformable structures

    CERN Document Server

    2015-01-01

    Recently, a new research stimulus has derived from the observation that soft structures, such as biological systems, but also rubber and gel, may work in a post critical regime, where elastic elements are subject to extreme deformations, though still exhibiting excellent mechanical performances. This is the realm of ‘extreme mechanics’, to which this book is addressed. The possibility of exploiting highly deformable structures opens new and unexpected technological possibilities. In particular, the challenge is the design of deformable and bi-stable mechanisms which can reach superior mechanical performances and can have a strong impact on several high-tech applications, including stretchable electronics, nanotube serpentines, deployable structures for aerospace engineering, cable deployment in the ocean, but also sensors and flexible actuators and vibration absorbers. Readers are introduced to a variety of interrelated topics involving the mechanics of extremely deformable structures, with emphasis on ...

  17. Statistics of Extremes

    KAUST Repository

    Davison, Anthony C.

    2015-04-10

    Statistics of extremes concerns inference for rare events. Often the events have never yet been observed, and their probabilities must therefore be estimated by extrapolation of tail models fitted to available data. Because data concerning the event of interest may be very limited, efficient methods of inference play an important role. This article reviews this domain, emphasizing current research topics. We first sketch the classical theory of extremes for maxima and threshold exceedances of stationary series. We then review multivariate theory, distinguishing asymptotic independence and dependence models, followed by a description of models for spatial and spatiotemporal extreme events. Finally, we discuss inference and describe two applications. Animations illustrate some of the main ideas. © 2015 by Annual Reviews. All rights reserved.

  18. Sexuality in persons with lower extremity amputations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bodenheimer, C; Kerrigan, A J; Garber, S L; Monga, T N

    2000-06-15

    There is a paucity of information regarding sexual functioning in persons with lower extremity amputations. The purpose of this study was to describe sexual and psychological functioning and health status in persons with lower extremity amputation. Self-report surveys assessed sexual functioning (Derogatis Inventory), depression (Beck Depression Inventory, anxiety (State-Trait Anxiety Inventory), and health status (Health Status Questionnaire) in a convenience sample of 30 men with lower extremity amputations. Mean age of the participants was 57 years (range 32-79). Mean duration since amputation was 23 months (range 3-634 months). Twenty one subjects (70%) had trans-tibial and seven subjects (23%) had trans-femoral amputations. A majority of subjects were experiencing problems in several domains of sexual functioning. Fifty three percent (n = 16) of the subjects were engaged in sexual intercourse or oral sex at least once a month. Twenty seven percent (n = 8) were masturbating at least once a month. Nineteen subjects (63%) reported orgasmic problems and 67% were experiencing erectile difficulties. Despite these problems, interest in sex was high in over 90% of the subjects. There was no evidence of increased prevalence of depression or anxiety in these subjects when compared to other outpatient adult populations. Sexual problems were common in the subjects studied. Despite these problems, interest in sex remained high. Few investigations have been directed toward identifying the psychological and social factors that may contribute to these problems and more research with a larger population is needed in this area.

  19. Adventure and Extreme Sports.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gomez, Andrew Thomas; Rao, Ashwin

    2016-03-01

    Adventure and extreme sports often involve unpredictable and inhospitable environments, high velocities, and stunts. These activities vary widely and include sports like BASE jumping, snowboarding, kayaking, and surfing. Increasing interest and participation in adventure and extreme sports warrants understanding by clinicians to facilitate prevention, identification, and treatment of injuries unique to each sport. This article covers alpine skiing and snowboarding, skateboarding, surfing, bungee jumping, BASE jumping, and whitewater sports with emphasis on epidemiology, demographics, general injury mechanisms, specific injuries, chronic injuries, fatality data, and prevention. Overall, most injuries are related to overuse, trauma, and environmental or microbial exposure. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Extremal graph theory

    CERN Document Server

    Bollobas, Bela

    2004-01-01

    The ever-expanding field of extremal graph theory encompasses a diverse array of problem-solving methods, including applications to economics, computer science, and optimization theory. This volume, based on a series of lectures delivered to graduate students at the University of Cambridge, presents a concise yet comprehensive treatment of extremal graph theory.Unlike most graph theory treatises, this text features complete proofs for almost all of its results. Further insights into theory are provided by the numerous exercises of varying degrees of difficulty that accompany each chapter. A

  1. Petroleum marketing monthly

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1995-11-01

    The Petroleum Marketing Monthly (PMM) provides information and statistical data on a variety of crude oils and refined petroleum products. The publication presents statistics on crude oil costs and refined petroleum products sales for use by industry, government, private sector analysts, educational institutions, and consumers. Data on crude oil include the domestic first purchase price, the f.o.b. and landed cost of imported crude oil, and the refiners` acquisition cost of crude oil. Refined petroleum product sales data include motor gasoline, distillates, residuals, aviation fuels, kerosene, and propane. The Petroleum Marketing Division, Office of Oil and Gas, Energy Information Administration ensures the accuracy, quality, and confidentiality of the published data.