Predictability of monthly temperature and precipitation using automatic time series forecasting methods

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Papacharalampous, Georgia; Tyralis, Hristos; Koutsoyiannis, Demetris

2018-02-01

We investigate the predictability of monthly temperature and precipitation by applying automatic univariate time series forecasting methods to a sample of 985 40-year-long monthly temperature and 1552 40-year-long monthly precipitation time series. The methods include a naïve one based on the monthly values of the last year, as well as the random walk (with drift), AutoRegressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average (ARFIMA), exponential smoothing state-space model with Box-Cox transformation, ARMA errors, Trend and Seasonal components (BATS), simple exponential smoothing, Theta and Prophet methods. Prophet is a recently introduced model inspired by the nature of time series forecasted at Facebook and has not been applied to hydrometeorological time series before, while the use of random walk, BATS, simple exponential smoothing and Theta is rare in hydrology. The methods are tested in performing multi-step ahead forecasts for the last 48 months of the data. We further investigate how different choices of handling the seasonality and non-normality affect the performance of the models. The results indicate that: (a) all the examined methods apart from the naïve and random walk ones are accurate enough to be used in long-term applications; (b) monthly temperature and precipitation can be forecasted to a level of accuracy which can barely be improved using other methods; (c) the externally applied classical seasonal decomposition results mostly in better forecasts compared to the automatic seasonal decomposition used by the BATS and Prophet methods; and (d) Prophet is competitive, especially when it is combined with externally applied classical seasonal decomposition.

Atmospheric Simulations Using OGCM-Assimilation SST: Influence of the Wintertime Japan Sea on Monthly Precipitation

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Masaru Yamamoto Naoki Hirose

2010-01-01

Full Text Available Temperature data for the Japan Sea obtained from ocean data assimilation modeling is applied to atmospheric simulations of monthly precipitation for January 2005. Because the volume of flow of the Tsushima Warm Current was large during the winter season, the sea surface temperature (SST and coastal precipitation were higher in comparison with those in 2003. In order to evaluate influence of SST on monthly precipitation, we use surface temperatures of the Japan Sea in 2003 and 2005 for comparative simulations of precipitation for January 2005. The precipitation in experiment C (using cool SST data in 2003 is smaller than that in experiment W (using warm SST data in 2005 in a large part of the sea area, since the small evaporation results from the low SST over the upstream area of northwesterly winter monsoon. In the domain of 33.67 - 45.82°N and 125.89 - 142.9°E, the averaged evaporation and precipitation in experiment C are 10% and 13% smaller than those in experiment W, respectively. About half of the difference between the precipitations observed for January 2003 and 2005 in a heavy snow area is equal to the difference between the two simulations. Our results show that the mesoscale SST difference between 2003 and 2005 is related to the local difference of monthly precipitation.

A global gridded dataset of daily precipitation going back to 1950, ideal for analysing precipitation extremes

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Contractor, S.; Donat, M.; Alexander, L. V.

2017-12-01

Reliable observations of precipitation are necessary to determine past changes in precipitation and validate models, allowing for reliable future projections. Existing gauge based gridded datasets of daily precipitation and satellite based observations contain artefacts and have a short length of record, making them unsuitable to analyse precipitation extremes. The largest limiting factor for the gauge based datasets is a dense and reliable station network. Currently, there are two major data archives of global in situ daily rainfall data, first is Global Historical Station Network (GHCN-Daily) hosted by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the other by Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) part of the Deutsche Wetterdienst (DWD). We combine the two data archives and use automated quality control techniques to create a reliable long term network of raw station data, which we then interpolate using block kriging to create a global gridded dataset of daily precipitation going back to 1950. We compare our interpolated dataset with existing global gridded data of daily precipitation: NOAA Climate Prediction Centre (CPC) Global V1.0 and GPCC Full Data Daily Version 1.0, as well as various regional datasets. We find that our raw station density is much higher than other datasets. To avoid artefacts due to station network variability, we provide multiple versions of our dataset based on various completeness criteria, as well as provide the standard deviation, kriging error and number of stations for each grid cell and timestep to encourage responsible use of our dataset. Despite our efforts to increase the raw data density, the in situ station network remains sparse in India after the 1960s and in Africa throughout the timespan of the dataset. Our dataset would allow for more reliable global analyses of rainfall including its extremes and pave the way for better global precipitation observations with lower and more transparent uncertainties.

Occurrence Probabilities of Wet and Dry Periods in Southern Italy through the SPI Evaluated on Synthetic Monthly Precipitation Series

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Tommaso Caloiero

2018-03-01

Full Text Available The present article investigates dry and wet periods in a large area of the Mediterranean basin. First, a stochastic model was applied to a homogeneous database of monthly precipitation values of 46 rain gauges in five regions of southern Italy. In particular, after estimating the model parameters, a set of 104 years of monthly precipitation for each rain gauge was generated by means of a Monte Carlo technique. Then, dry and wet periods were analyzed through the application of the standardized precipitation index (SPI over 3-month and 6-month timespan (short-term and 12-month and 24-month period (long-term. As a result of the SPI application on the generated monthly precipitation series, higher occurrence probabilities of dry conditions than wet conditions have been detected, especially when long-term precipitation scales are considered.

Climate Prediction Center(CPC) Monthly U.S. Precipitation and Temperature Summary

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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Monthly U.S. minimum and maximum temperatures in whole degrees Fahrenheit and reported and estimated precipitation amounts in hundredths of inches(ex 100 is 1.00...

Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Monthly U.S. Selected Cities Precipitation Summary

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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Monthly U.S. reported precipitation amounts in hundredths of inches (ex 100 is 1.00 inches) generated from the GTS metar(hourly) and synoptic(6-hourly)observations...

Climate Prediction Center(CPC) Monthly Precipitation Reconstruction (PREC)at Spatial Resolution of 0.5 degree.

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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This global monthly precipitation analysis is called the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Precipitation Reconstruction (PREC). This analysis consists of two...

The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) Combined Precipitation Dataset

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Huffman, George J.; Adler, Robert F.; Arkin, Philip; Chang, Alfred; Ferraro, Ralph; Gruber, Arnold; Janowiak, John; McNab, Alan; Rudolf, Bruno; Schneider, Udo

1997-01-01

The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) has released the GPCP Version 1 Combined Precipitation Data Set, a global, monthly precipitation dataset covering the period July 1987 through December 1995. The primary product in the dataset is a merged analysis incorporating precipitation estimates from low-orbit-satellite microwave data, geosynchronous-orbit -satellite infrared data, and rain gauge observations. The dataset also contains the individual input fields, a combination of the microwave and infrared satellite estimates, and error estimates for each field. The data are provided on 2.5 deg x 2.5 deg latitude-longitude global grids. Preliminary analyses show general agreement with prior studies of global precipitation and extends prior studies of El Nino-Southern Oscillation precipitation patterns. At the regional scale there are systematic differences with standard climatologies.

TAO/TRITON, RAMA, and PIRATA Buoys, Monthly, 1997-present, Evaporation Minus Precipitation

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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This dataset has monthly Evaporation Minus Precipitation data from the TAO/TRITON (Pacific Ocean, https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/gtmba/ ), RAMA (Indian Ocean,...

Precipitation Reconstruction over Land (PREC/L)

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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The monthly data set consists files of 3 resolutions of monthly averaged precipitation totals. The global analyses are defined by interpolation of gauge observations...

Evaluation of IMERG and TRMM 3B43 Monthly Precipitation Products over Mainland China

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Fengrui Chen

2016-06-01

Full Text Available As the successor of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM, the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM mission significantly improves the spatial resolution of precipitation estimates from 0.25° to 0.1°. The present study analyzed the error structures of Integrated Multisatellite Retrievals for GPM (IMERG monthly precipitation products over Mainland China from March 2014 to February 2015 using gauge measurements at multiple spatiotemporal scales. Moreover, IMERG products were also compared with TRMM 3B43 products. The results show that: (1 overall, IMERG can capture the spatial patterns of precipitation over China well. It performs a little better than TRMM 3B43 at seasonal and monthly scales; (2 the performance of IMERG varies greatly spatially and temporally. IMERG performs better at low latitudes than at middle latitudes, and shows worse performance in winter than at other times; (3 compared with TRMM 3B43, IMERG significantly improves the estimation accuracy of precipitation over the Xinjiang region and the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, especially over the former where IMERG increases Pearson correlation coefficient by 0.18 and decreases root-mean-square error by 54.47 mm for annual precipitation estimates. However, most IMERG products over these areas are unreliable; and (4 IMERG shows poor performance in winter as TRMM 3B43 even if GPM improved its ability to sense frozen precipitation. Most of them over North China are unreliable during this period.

Climate Prediction Center (CPC) One Month Probabilistic Precipitation Outlook for the Contiguous United States and Alaska

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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) issues a probabilistic one-month precipitation outlook for the United States twice a month. CPC issues an initial monthly outlook...

Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Monthly Precipitation Reconstruction of Ocean(PRECO)at Spatial Resolution of 2.5 degree.

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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This global monthly precipitation analysis is called the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Precipitation Reconstruction (PREC). This analysis consists of two...

Network-derived inhomogeneity in monthly rainfall analyses over western Tasmania

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fawcett, Robert; Trewin, Blair; Barnes-Keoghan, Ian

2010-01-01

Monthly rainfall in the wetter western half of Tasmania was relatively poorly observed in the early to middle parts of the 20th century, and this causes a marked inhomogeneity in the operational gridded monthly rainfall analyses generated by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology up until the end of 2009. These monthly rainfall analyses were generated for the period 1900 to 2009 in two forms; a national analysis at 0.25 0 latitude-longitude resolution, and a southeastern Australia regional analysis at 0.1 0 resolution. For any given month, they used all the monthly data from the standard Bureau rainfall gauge network available in the Australian Data Archive for Meteorology. Since this network has changed markedly since Federation (1901), there is obvious scope for network-derived inhomogeneities in the analyses. In this study, we show that the topography-resolving techniques of the new Australian Water Availability Project analyses, adopted as the official operational analyses from the start of 2010, substantially diminish those inhomogeneities, while using largely the same observation network. One result is an improved characterisation of recent rainfall declines across Tasmania. The new analyses are available at two resolutions, 0.25 0 and 0.05 0 .

Stable isotope analyses of precipitation nitrogen sources in Guiyang, southwestern China.

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Liu, Xue-Yan; Xiao, Hong-Wei; Xiao, Hua-Yun; Song, Wei; Sun, Xin-Chao; Zheng, Xu-Dong; Liu, Cong-Qiang; Koba, Keisuke

2017-11-01

To constrain sources of anthropogenic nitrogen (N) deposition is critical for effective reduction of reactive N emissions and better evaluation of N deposition effects. This study measured δ 15 N signatures of nitrate (NO 3 - ), ammonium (NH 4 + ) and total dissolved N (TDN) in precipitation at Guiyang, southwestern China and estimated contributions of dominant N sources using a Bayesian isotope mixing model. For NO 3 - , the contribution of non-fossil N oxides (NO x , mainly from biomass burning (24 ± 12%) and microbial N cycle (26 ± 5%)) equals that of fossil NO x , to which vehicle exhausts (31 ± 19%) contributed more than coal combustion (19 ± 9%). For NH 4 + , ammonia (NH 3 ) from volatilization sources (mainly animal wastes (22 ± 12%) and fertilizers (22 ± 10%)) contributed less than NH 3 from combustion sources (mainly biomass burning (17 ± 8%), vehicle exhausts (19 ± 11%) and coal combustions (19 ± 12%)). Dissolved organic N (DON) accounted for 41% in precipitation TDN deposition during the study period. Precipitation DON had higher δ 15 N values in cooler months (13.1‰) than in warmer months (-7.0‰), indicating the dominance of primary and secondary ON sources, respectively. These results newly underscored the importance of non-fossil NO x , fossil NH 3 and organic N in precipitation N inputs of urban environments. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cluster Analysis of Monthly Precipitation over the Western Maritime Continent under Climate Change

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Saurabh K Singh

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Changes in climate because of global warming during the 20th and 21st centuries have a direct impact on the hydrological cycle as driven by precipitation. However, studying precipitation over the Western Maritime Continent (WMC is a great challenge, as the WMC has a complex topography and weather system. Understanding changes in precipitation patterns and their groupings is an important aspect of planning mitigation measures to minimize flood and drought risk as well as of understanding the redistribution of precipitation arising from climate change. This paper employs Ward’s hierarchical clustering on regional climate model (RCM-simulated monthly precipitation gridded data over 42 approximately evenly distributed grid stations from the years 2030 to 2060. The aim was to investigate spatial and temporal groupings over the four major landmasses in the WMC and to compare these with historical precipitation groupings. The results showed that the four large-scale islands of Java, Sumatra, Peninsular Malaysia and Borneo would experience a significant spatial redistribution of precipitation over the years 2030 to 2060, as compared to historical patterns from 1980 to 2005. The spatial groups were also compared for two future forcing scenarios, representative concentration pathways (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5, and different groupings over the Borneo region were observed.

Detecting quasi-oscillations in the monthly precipitation regimes of the Iberian Peninsula

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L. Morala

2003-03-01

Full Text Available A spectral analysis of the time series corresponding to the main monthly precipitation regimes of the Iberian Peninsula was performed using two methods, the Multi-Taper Method and Monte Carlo Singular Spectrum Analysis. The Multi-Taper Method gave a preliminary view of the presence of signals in some of the time series. Monte Carlo Singular Spectrum Analysis discriminated between potential oscillations and noise. From the results of the two methods it is concluded that there exist three significant quasi-oscillations at the 95% level of confidence: a 5.0 year quasi-oscillation and a long-term trend in the Atlantic pattern of March, a 3.2 year quasi-oscillation in the Cantabrian pattern of January, and a 4.0 year quasi-oscillation in the Catalonian pattern of February. These quasi-oscillations might be related to climatic variations with similar periodicities over the North Atlantic Ocean. The possible simultaneity of high values of precipitation generated by the significant quasi-oscillations and high sea–level pressures was studied by means of composite maps. It was found that high values of precipitation generated by the oscillations of the Atlantic patterns of January and March exist simultaneously with a specific high pressure structure over the North Atlantic Ocean, that allow cyclonic perturbations to cross the Iberian Peninsula. During the non-wet years, this high pressure structure moves northwards, keeping the track of the low pressure centers to the north, far from the Iberian Peninsula. On the other hand, high values of precipitation generated by the oscillation of the Cantabrian pattern of January exist simultaneously with a high pressure structure over the Galicia region and the Cantabrian Sea, that allow a northerly flow over the region. Also, a positive trend in the NAO index for March has been found, starting in the sixties, which is not evident for other winter months. This trend agrees with the decreasing trend found in the

Flood triggering in Switzerland: the role of daily to monthly preceding precipitation

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Froidevaux, P.; Schwanbeck, J.; Weingartner, R.; Chevalier, C.; Martius, O.

2015-09-01

Determining the role of different precipitation periods for peak discharge generation is crucial for both projecting future changes in flood probability and for short- and medium-range flood forecasting. In this study, catchment-averaged daily precipitation time series are analyzed prior to annual peak discharge events (floods) in Switzerland. The high number of floods considered - more than 4000 events from 101 catchments have been analyzed - allows to derive significant information about the role of antecedent precipitation for peak discharge generation. Based on the analysis of precipitation times series, a new separation of flood-related precipitation periods is proposed: (i) the period 0 to 1 day before flood days, when the maximum flood-triggering precipitation rates are generally observed, (ii) the period 2 to 3 days before flood days, when longer-lasting synoptic situations generate "significantly higher than normal" precipitation amounts, and (iii) the period from 4 days to 1 month before flood days when previous wet episodes may have already preconditioned the catchment. The novelty of this study lies in the separation of antecedent precipitation into the precursor antecedent precipitation (4 days before floods or earlier, called PRE-AP) and the short range precipitation (0 to 3 days before floods, a period when precipitation is often driven by one persistent weather situation like e.g., a stationary low-pressure system). A precise separation of "antecedent" and "peak-triggering" precipitation is not attempted. Instead, the strict definition of antecedent precipitation periods permits a direct comparison of all catchments. The precipitation accumulating 0 to 3 days before an event is the most relevant for floods in Switzerland. PRE-AP precipitation has only a weak and region-specific influence on flood probability. Floods were significantly more frequent after wet PRE-AP periods only in the Jura Mountains, in the western and eastern Swiss plateau, and at

A precipitation database of station-based daily and monthly measurements for West Africa: Overview, quality control and harmonization

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Bliefernicht, Jan; Waongo, Moussa; Annor, Thompson; Laux, Patrick; Lorenz, Manuel; Salack, Seyni; Kunstmann, Harald

2017-04-01

West Africa is a data sparse region. High quality and long-term precipitation data are often not readily available for applications in hydrology, agriculture, meteorology and other needs. To close this gap, we use multiple data sources to develop a precipitation database with long-term daily and monthly time series. This database was compiled from 16 archives including global databases e.g. from the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN), databases from research projects (e.g. the AMMA database) and databases of the national meteorological services of some West African countries. The collection consists of more than 2000 precipitation gauges with measurements dating from 1850 to 2015. Due to erroneous measurements (e.g. temporal offsets, unit conversion errors), missing values and inconsistent meta-data, the merging of this precipitation dataset is not straightforward and requires a thorough quality control and harmonization. To this end, we developed geostatistical-based algorithms for quality control of individual databases and harmonization to a joint database. The algorithms are based on a pairwise comparison of the correspondence of precipitation time series in dependence to the distance between stations. They were tested for precipitation time series from gages located in a rectangular domain covering Burkina Faso, Ghana, Benin and Togo. This harmonized and quality controlled precipitation database was recently used for several applications such as the validation of a high resolution regional climate model and the bias correction of precipitation projections provided the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX). In this presentation, we will give an overview of the novel daily and monthly precipitation database and the algorithms used for quality control and harmonization. We will also highlight the quality of global and regional archives (e.g. GHCN, GSOD, AMMA database) in comparison to the precipitation databases provided by the

Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Three Month Probabilistic Precipitation Outlook for the Contiguous United States and Alaska

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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) issues a series of thirteen probabilistic three-month precipitation outlooks for the United States. CPC issues the thirteen...

Using Multiple Monthly Water Balance Models to Evaluate Gridded Precipitation Products over Peninsular Spain

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Javier Senent-Aparicio

2018-06-01

Full Text Available The availability of precipitation data is the key driver in the application of hydrological models when simulating streamflow. Ground weather stations are regularly used to measure precipitation. However, spatial coverage is often limited in low-population areas and mountain areas. To overcome this limitation, gridded datasets from remote sensing have been widely used. This study evaluates four widely used global precipitation datasets (GPDs: The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM 3B43, the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR, the Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN, and the Multi-Source Weighted-Ensemble Precipitation (MSWEP, against point gauge and gridded dataset observations using multiple monthly water balance models (MWBMs in four different meso-scale basins that cover the main climatic zones of Peninsular Spain. The volumes of precipitation obtained from the GPDs tend to be smaller than those from the gauged data. Results underscore the superiority of the national gridded dataset, although the TRMM provides satisfactory results in simulating streamflow, reaching similar Nash-Sutcliffe values, between 0.70 and 0.95, and an average total volume error of 12% when using the GR2M model. The performance of GPDs highly depends on the climate, so that the more humid the watershed is, the better results can be achieved. The procedures used can be applied in regions with similar case studies to more accurately assess the resources within a system in which there is scarcity of recorded data available.

Spatial and temporal variability of precipitation in Serbia for the period 1961-2010

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Milovanović, Boško; Schuster, Phillip; Radovanović, Milan; Vakanjac, Vesna Ristić; Schneider, Christoph

2017-10-01

Monthly, seasonal and annual sums of precipitation in Serbia were analysed in this paper for the period 1961-2010. Latitude, longitude and altitude of 421 precipitation stations and terrain features in their close environment (slope and aspect of terrain within a radius of 10 km around the station) were used to develop a regression model on which spatial distribution of precipitation was calculated. The spatial distribution of annual, June (maximum values for almost all of the stations) and February (minimum values for almost all of the stations) precipitation is presented. Annual precipitation amounts ranged from 500 to 600 mm to over 1100 mm. June precipitation ranged from 60 to 140 mm and February precipitation from 30 to 100 mm. The validation results expressed as root mean square error (RMSE) for monthly sums ranged from 3.9 mm in October (7.5% of the average precipitation for this month) to 6.2 mm in April (10.4%). For seasonal sums, RMSE ranged from 10.4 mm during autumn (6.1% of the average precipitation for this season) to 20.5 mm during winter (13.4%). On the annual scale, RMSE was 68 mm (9.5% of the average amount of precipitation). We further analysed precipitation trends using Sen's estimation, while the Mann-Kendall test was used for testing the statistical significance of the trends. For most parts of Serbia, the mean annual precipitation trends fell between -5 and +5 and +5 and +15 mm/decade. June precipitation trends were mainly between -8 and +8 mm/decade. February precipitation trends generally ranged from -3 to +3 mm/decade.

Statistical downscaling based on dynamically downscaled predictors: Application to monthly precipitation in Sweden

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Hellström, Cecilia; Chen, Deliang

2003-11-01

A prerequisite of a successful statistical downscaling is that large-scale predictors simulated by the General Circulation Model (GCM) must be realistic. It is assumed here that features smaller than the GCM resolution are important in determining the realism of the large-scale predictors. It is tested whether a three-step method can improve conventional one-step statistical downscaling. The method uses predictors that are upscaled from a dynamical downscaling instead of predictors taken directly from a GCM simulation. The method is applied to downscaling of monthly precipitation in Sweden. The statistical model used is a multiple regression model that uses indices of large-scale atmospheric circulation and 850-hPa specific humidity as predictors. Data from two GCMs (HadCM2 and ECHAM4) and two RCM experiments of the Rossby Centre model (RCA1) driven by the GCMs are used. It is found that upscaled RCA1 predictors capture the seasonal cycle better than those from the GCMs, and hence increase the reliability of the downscaled precipitation. However, there are only slight improvements in the simulation of the seasonal cycle of downscaled precipitation. Due to the cost of the method and the limited improvements in the downscaling results, the three-step method is not justified to replace the one-step method for downscaling of Swedish precipitation.

Calculation code used in criticality analyses for the accident of JCO precipitation tank

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Miyoshi, Yoshinori

2000-01-01

In order to evaluate nuclear features on criticality accident formed at the nuclear fuel processing facility in Tokai Works of the JCO, Ltd. (JCO), in Tokai-mura, Ibaraki prefecture, dynamic analyses to calculate output change after occurring the accident as well as criticality analyses to calculate reactivity added to precipitation tank, were carried out according to scenario on accident formation. For the criticality analyses, a continuous energy Monte Carlo code MCNP was used to carry out calculation of reactivity fed into the precipitation tank as correctly as possible. And, SRAC code system was used for calculation on temperature and void reactivity coefficients, effective delayed neutron ratio beta eff , and instantaneous neutron generation time required for parameters controlling transition features at criticality accident. In addition, for the dynamic analyses, because of necessity of considering on volume expansion of solution fuels used as exothermic body and radiation decomposition gas forming into solution, output behavior, numbers of nuclear fission, and so forth at initial burst portion were calculated by using TRACE and quasi-regular code, at a center of AGNES-2 promoting on its development in JAERI. Here were reported on outlines and an analysis example on calculation code using for the nuclear features evaluation. (G.K.)

Intercomparison of PERSIANN-CDR and TRMM-3B42V7 precipitation estimates at monthly and daily time scales

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Katiraie-Boroujerdy, Pari-Sima; Akbari Asanjan, Ata; Hsu, Kuo-lin; Sorooshian, Soroosh

2017-09-01

can capture the annual mean of the absolute indices (the number of wet days in which daily precipitation > 10 mm, 20 mm) better than PERSIANN-CDR. The results of daily evaluations show that the similarity of Empirical Cumulative Density Function (ECDF) of satellite products and IRIMO gauges daily precipitation, as well as dry spells with different thresholds in some selected pixels (include at least five gauges), are significant. The results also indicate that ECDFs become more significant when threshold increases. In terms of regional analyses, the higher SNR of the products on monthly (based on the GTCH method) and daily evaluations (significant ECDFs) is mostly consistent.

High-resolution Monthly Satellite Precipitation Product over the Conterminous United States

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Hashemi, H.; Fayne, J.; Knight, R. J.; Lakshmi, V.

2017-12-01

We present a data set that enhanced the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) monthly product 3B43 in its accuracy and spatial resolution. For this, we developed a correction function to improve the accuracy of TRMM 3B43, spatial resolution of 25 km, by estimating and removing the bias in the satellite data using a ground-based precipitation data set. We observed a strong relationship between the bias and land surface elevation; TRMM 3B43 tends to underestimate the ground-based product at elevations above 1500 m above mean sea level (m.amsl) over the conterminous United States. A relationship was developed between satellite bias and elevation. We then resampled TRMM 3B43 to the Digital Elevation Model (DEM) data set at a spatial resolution of 30 arc second ( 1 km on the ground). The produced high-resolution satellite-based data set was corrected using the developed correction function based on the bias-elevation relationship. Assuming that each rain gauge represents an area of 1 km2, we verified our product against 9,200 rain gauges across the conterminous United States. The new product was compared with the gauges, which have 50, 60, 70, 80, 90, and 100% temporal coverage within the TRMM period of 1998 to 2015. Comparisons between the high-resolution corrected satellite-based data and gauges showed an excellent agreement. The new product captured more detail in the changes in precipitation over the mountainous region than the original TRMM 3B43.

Exploring the effects of climatic variables on monthly precipitation variation using a continuous wavelet-based multiscale entropy approach.

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Roushangar, Kiyoumars; Alizadeh, Farhad; Adamowski, Jan

2018-08-01

Understanding precipitation on a regional basis is an important component of water resources planning and management. The present study outlines a methodology based on continuous wavelet transform (CWT) and multiscale entropy (CWME), combined with self-organizing map (SOM) and k-means clustering techniques, to measure and analyze the complexity of precipitation. Historical monthly precipitation data from 1960 to 2010 at 31 rain gauges across Iran were preprocessed by CWT. The multi-resolution CWT approach segregated the major features of the original precipitation series by unfolding the structure of the time series which was often ambiguous. The entropy concept was then applied to components obtained from CWT to measure dispersion, uncertainty, disorder, and diversification of subcomponents. Based on different validity indices, k-means clustering captured homogenous areas more accurately, and additional analysis was performed based on the outcome of this approach. The 31 rain gauges in this study were clustered into 6 groups, each one having a unique CWME pattern across different time scales. The results of clustering showed that hydrologic similarity (multiscale variation of precipitation) was not based on geographic contiguity. According to the pattern of entropy across the scales, each cluster was assigned an entropy signature that provided an estimation of the entropy pattern of precipitation data in each cluster. Based on the pattern of mean CWME for each cluster, a characteristic signature was assigned, which provided an estimation of the CWME of a cluster across scales of 1-2, 3-8, and 9-13 months relative to other stations. The validity of the homogeneous clusters demonstrated the usefulness of the proposed approach to regionalize precipitation. Further analysis based on wavelet coherence (WTC) was performed by selecting central rain gauges in each cluster and analyzing against temperature, wind, Multivariate ENSO index (MEI), and East Atlantic (EA) and

Application study of monthly precipitation forecast in Northeast China based on the cold vortex persistence activity index

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Gang, Liu; Meihui, Qu; Guolin, Feng; Qucheng, Chu; Jing, Cao; Jie, Yang; Ling, Cao; Yao, Feng

2018-03-01

This paper introduces three quantitative indicators to conduct research for characterizing Northeast China cold vortex persistence activity: cold vortex persistence, generalized "cold vortex," and cold vortex precipitation. As discussed in the first part of paper, a hindcast is performed by multiple regressions using Northeast China precipitation from 2012 to 2014 combination with the previous winter 144 air-sea system factors. The results show that the mentioned three cold vortex index series can reflect the spatial and temporal distributions of observational precipitation in 2012-2014 and obtain results. The cold vortex factors are then added to the Forecast System on Dynamical and Analogy Skills (FODAS) to carry out dynamic statistical hindcast of precipitation in Northeast China from 2003 to 2012. Based on the characteristics and significance of each index, precipitation hindcast is carried out for Northeast China in May, June, July, August, May-June, and July-August. It turns out that the Northeast Cold Vortex Index Series, as defined in this paper, can make positive corrections to the FODAS forecast system, and most of the index correction results are higher than the system's own correction value. This study provides quantitative index products and supplies a solid technical foundation and support for monthly precipitation forecast in Northeast China.

Monthly hydroclimatology of the continental United States

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Petersen, Thomas; Devineni, Naresh; Sankarasubramanian, A.

2018-04-01

Physical/semi-empirical models that do not require any calibration are of paramount need for estimating hydrological fluxes for ungauged sites. We develop semi-empirical models for estimating the mean and variance of the monthly streamflow based on Taylor Series approximation of a lumped physically based water balance model. The proposed models require mean and variance of monthly precipitation and potential evapotranspiration, co-variability of precipitation and potential evapotranspiration and regionally calibrated catchment retention sensitivity, atmospheric moisture uptake sensitivity, groundwater-partitioning factor, and the maximum soil moisture holding capacity parameters. Estimates of mean and variance of monthly streamflow using the semi-empirical equations are compared with the observed estimates for 1373 catchments in the continental United States. Analyses show that the proposed models explain the spatial variability in monthly moments for basins in lower elevations. A regionalization of parameters for each water resources region show good agreement between observed moments and model estimated moments during January, February, March and April for mean and all months except May and June for variance. Thus, the proposed relationships could be employed for understanding and estimating the monthly hydroclimatology of ungauged basins using regional parameters.

A new precipitation and drought climatology based on weather patterns.

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Richardson, Douglas; Fowler, Hayley J; Kilsby, Christopher G; Neal, Robert

2018-02-01

Weather-pattern, or weather-type, classifications are a valuable tool in many applications as they characterize the broad-scale atmospheric circulation over a given region. This study analyses the aspects of regional UK precipitation and meteorological drought climatology with respect to a new set of objectively defined weather patterns. These new patterns are currently being used by the Met Office in several probabilistic forecasting applications driven by ensemble forecasting systems. Weather pattern definitions and daily occurrences are mapped to Lamb weather types (LWTs), and parallels between the two classifications are drawn. Daily precipitation distributions are associated with each weather pattern and LWT. Standardized precipitation index (SPI) and drought severity index (DSI) series are calculated for a range of aggregation periods and seasons. Monthly weather-pattern frequency anomalies are calculated for SPI wet and dry periods and for the 5% most intense DSI-based drought months. The new weather-pattern definitions and daily occurrences largely agree with their respective LWTs, allowing comparison between the two classifications. There is also broad agreement between weather pattern and LWT changes in frequencies. The new data set is shown to be adequate for precipitation-based analyses in the UK, although a smaller set of clustered weather patterns is not. Furthermore, intra-pattern precipitation variability is lower in the new classification compared to the LWTs, which is an advantage in this context. Six of the new weather patterns are associated with drought over the entire UK, with several other patterns linked to regional drought. It is demonstrated that the new data set of weather patterns offers a new opportunity for classification-based analyses in the UK.

DSC analyses of static and dynamic precipitation of an Al–Mg–Si–Cu aluminum alloy

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Manping Liu

2015-04-01

Full Text Available In the present investigation, both static and dynamic precipitations of an Al–Mg–Si–Cu aluminum alloy after solid-solution treatment (SST were comparatively analyzed using differential scanning calorimetry (DSC. Dynamic aging was performed in the SST alloy through equal channel angular pressing (ECAP at different temperatures of room temperature, 110, 170, 191 and 300 °C. For comparison, static artificial aging was conducted in the SST alloy at 191 °C with two aging times of 4 and 10 h. The DSC analyses reveal that the dynamic precipitation has occurred in the ECAPed samples, while the activation energies associated with the strengthening precipitates in the dynamic samples are considerably higher than the energies in the SST and static aged samples. The higher activation energies are probably attributed to the smaller grains and higher dislocation density developed after ECAP. The results in the present investigation allow the prediction of the type of the dynamic precipitates to influence the strength of the ultrafine grained alloy during ECAP at various temperatures.

Precipitation isoscapes for New Zealand: enhanced temporal detail using precipitation-weighted daily climatology.

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Baisden, W Troy; Keller, Elizabeth D; Van Hale, Robert; Frew, Russell D; Wassenaar, Leonard I

2016-01-01

Predictive understanding of precipitation δ(2)H and δ(18)O in New Zealand faces unique challenges, including high spatial variability in precipitation amounts, alternation between subtropical and sub-Antarctic precipitation sources, and a compressed latitudinal range of 34 to 47 °S. To map the precipitation isotope ratios across New Zealand, three years of integrated monthly precipitation samples were acquired from >50 stations. Conventional mean-annual precipitation δ(2)H and δ(18)O maps were produced by regressions using geographic and annual climate variables. Incomplete data and short-term variation in climate and precipitation sources limited the utility of this approach. We overcome these difficulties by calculating precipitation-weighted monthly climate parameters using national 5-km-gridded daily climate data. This data plus geographic variables were regressed to predict δ(2)H, δ(18)O, and d-excess at all sites. The procedure yields statistically-valid predictions of the isotope composition of precipitation (long-term average root mean square error (RMSE) for δ(18)O = 0.6 ‰; δ(2)H = 5.5 ‰); and monthly RMSE δ(18)O = 1.9 ‰, δ(2)H = 16 ‰. This approach has substantial benefits for studies that require the isotope composition of precipitation during specific time intervals, and may be further improved by comparison to daily and event-based precipitation samples as well as the use of back-trajectory calculations.

Calibration and combination of monthly near-surface temperature and precipitation predictions over Europe

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Rodrigues, Luis R. L.; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J.; Coelho, Caio A. S.

2018-02-01

A Bayesian method known as the Forecast Assimilation (FA) was used to calibrate and combine monthly near-surface temperature and precipitation outputs from seasonal dynamical forecast systems. The simple multimodel (SMM), a method that combines predictions with equal weights, was used as a benchmark. This research focuses on Europe and adjacent regions for predictions initialized in May and November, covering the boreal summer and winter months. The forecast quality of the FA and SMM as well as the single seasonal dynamical forecast systems was assessed using deterministic and probabilistic measures. A non-parametric bootstrap method was used to account for the sampling uncertainty of the forecast quality measures. We show that the FA performs as well as or better than the SMM in regions where the dynamical forecast systems were able to represent the main modes of climate covariability. An illustration with the near-surface temperature over North Atlantic, the Mediterranean Sea and Middle-East in summer months associated with the well predicted first mode of climate covariability is offered. However, the main modes of climate covariability are not well represented in most situations discussed in this study as the seasonal dynamical forecast systems have limited skill when predicting the European climate. In these situations, the SMM performs better more often.

Potential relationships between the river discharge and the precipitation in the Jinsha River basin, China

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Wang, Gaoxu; Zeng, Xiaofan; Zhao, Na; He, Qifang; Bai, Yiran; Zhang, Ruoyu

2018-02-01

The relationships between the river discharge and the precipitation in the Jinsha River basin are discussed in this study. In addition, the future precipitation trend from 2011-2050 and its potential influence on the river discharge are analysed by applying the CCLM-modelled precipitation. According to the observed river discharge and precipitation, the annual river discharge at the two main hydrological stations displays good correlations with the annual precipitation in the Jinsha River basin. The predicted future precipitation tends to change similarly as the change that occurred during the observation period, whereas the monthly distributions over a year could be more uneven, which is unfavourable for water resources management.

A comparison of monthly precipitation point estimates at 6 locations in Iran using integration of soft computing methods and GARCH time series model

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Mehdizadeh, Saeid; Behmanesh, Javad; Khalili, Keivan

2017-11-01

Precipitation plays an important role in determining the climate of a region. Precise estimation of precipitation is required to manage and plan water resources, as well as other related applications such as hydrology, climatology, meteorology and agriculture. Time series of hydrologic variables such as precipitation are composed of deterministic and stochastic parts. Despite this fact, the stochastic part of the precipitation data is not usually considered in modeling of precipitation process. As an innovation, the present study introduces three new hybrid models by integrating soft computing methods including multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), Bayesian networks (BN) and gene expression programming (GEP) with a time series model, namely generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) for modeling of the monthly precipitation. For this purpose, the deterministic (obtained by soft computing methods) and stochastic (obtained by GARCH time series model) parts are combined with each other. To carry out this research, monthly precipitation data of Babolsar, Bandar Anzali, Gorgan, Ramsar, Tehran and Urmia stations with different climates in Iran were used during the period of 1965-2014. Root mean square error (RMSE), relative root mean square error (RRMSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and determination coefficient (R2) were employed to evaluate the performance of conventional/single MARS, BN and GEP, as well as the proposed MARS-GARCH, BN-GARCH and GEP-GARCH hybrid models. It was found that the proposed novel models are more precise than single MARS, BN and GEP models. Overall, MARS-GARCH and BN-GARCH models yielded better accuracy than GEP-GARCH. The results of the present study confirmed the suitability of proposed methodology for precise modeling of precipitation.

Effect of precipitation bias correction on water budget calculation in Upper Yellow River, China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ye Baisheng; Yang Daqing; Ma Lijuan

2012-01-01

This study quantifies the effect of precipitation bias corrections on basin water balance calculations for the Yellow River Source region (YRS). We analyse long-term (1959–2001) monthly and yearly data of precipitation, runoff, and ERA-40 water budget variables and define a water balance regime. Basin precipitation, evapotranspiration and runoff are high in summer and low in winter. The basin water storage change is positive in summer and negative in winter. Monthly precipitation bias corrections, ranging from 2 to 16 mm, do not significantly alter the pattern of the seasonal water budget. The annual bias correction of precipitation is about 98 mm (19%); this increase leads to the same amount of evapotranspiration increase, since yearly runoff remains unchanged and the long-term storage change is assumed to be zero. Annual runoff and evapotranspiration coefficients change, due to precipitation bias corrections, from 0.33 and 0.67 to 0.28 and 0.72, respectively. These changes will impact the parameterization and calibration of land surface and hydrological models. The bias corrections of precipitation data also improve the relationship between annual precipitation and runoff. (letter)

Regional climate change: Precipitation variability in mountainous part of Bulgaria

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Nikolova Nina

2007-01-01

Full Text Available The aim of paper is to analyze temporal and spatial changes in monthly precipitation as well as extremely dry and wet months in mountainous part of Bulgaria. Study precipitation variability in mountainous part is very important because this part is the region where the rivers take its source from. Extreme values of monthly precipitation are important information for better understanding of the whole variability and trends in precipitation time series. The mean investigated period is 1951-2005 and the reference period is so called temporary climate - 1961- 1990. Extreme dry precipitation months are defined as a month whose monthly precipitation is lower than 10% of gamma distribution in the reference period 1961-1990. Extreme wet months are determined with respect to 90% percentiles of gamma distribution (monthly precipitation is higher than 90%. The result of the research show that in mountainous part of Bulgaria during 1950s and 1960s number of extremely wet months is higher than number of dry months. Decreasing of monthly precipitation is a feature for 1980s. This dry period continues till 2004. The years 2000 makes impression as driest year in high mountains with about 7 extremely dry months. The second dry year is 1993. The negative precipitation anomaly is most clearly determined during last decade at study area. The present research points out that fluctuation of precipitation in mountainous part of Bulgaria are coinciding with regional and global climate trends.

Adjusted monthly temperature and precipitation values for Guinea Conakry (1941-2010) using HOMER.

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Aguilar, Enric; Aziz Barry, Abdoul; Mestre, Olivier

2013-04-01

Africa is a data sparse region and there are very few studies presenting homogenized monthly records. In this work, we introduce a dataset consisting of 12 stations spread over Guinea Conakry containing daily values of maximum and minimum temperature and accumulated rainfall for the period 1941-2010. The daily values have been quality controlled using R-Climdex routines, plus other interactive quality control applications, coded by the authors. After applying the different tests, more than 200 daily values were flagged as doubtful and carefully checked against the statistical distribution of the series and the rest of the dataset. Finally, 40 values were modified or set to missing and the rest were validated. The quality controlled daily dataset was used to produce monthly means and homogenized with HOMER, a new R-pacakge which includes the relative methods that performed better in the experiments conducted in the framework of the COST-HOME action. A total number of 38 inhomogeneities were found for temperature. As a total of 788 years of data were analyzed, the average ratio was one break every 20.7 years. The station with a larger number of inhomogeneities was Conakry (5 breaks) and one station, Kissidougou, was identified as homogeneous. The average number of breaks/station was 3.2. The mean value of the monthly factors applied to maximum (minimum) temperature was 0.17 °C (-1.08 °C) . For precipitation, due to the demand of a denser network to correctly homogenize this variable, only two major inhomogeneities in Conakry (1941-1961, -12%) and Kindia (1941-1976, -10%) were corrected. The adjusted dataset was used to compute regional series for the three variables and trends for the 1941-2010 period. The regional mean has been computed by simply averaging anomalies to 1971-2000 of the 12 time series. Two different versions have been obtained: a first one (A) makes use of the missing values interpolation made by HOMER (so all annual values in the regional series

Temporal analyses of Salmonellae in a headwater spring ecosystem reveals the effects of precipitation and runoff events.

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Gaertner, James P; Garres, Tiffany; Becker, Jesse C; Jimenez, Maria L; Forstner, Michael R J; Hahn, Dittmar

2009-03-01

Sediments and water from the spring and slough arm of Spring Lake, the pristine headwaters of the San Marcos River, Texas, were analyzed for Salmonellae by culture and molecular techniques before and after three major precipitation events, each with intermediate dry periods. Polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-assisted analyses of enrichment cultures detected Salmonellae in samples after all three precipitation events, but failed to detect them immediately prior to the rainfall events. Detection among individual locations differed with respect to the precipitation event analyzed, and strains isolated were highly variable with respect to serovars. These results demonstrate that rainwater associated effects, most likely surface runoff, provide an avenue for short-term pollution of aquatic systems with Salmonellae that do not, however, appear to establish for the long-term in water nor sediments.

Global daily precipitation fields from bias-corrected rain gauge and satellite observations. Pt. 1. Design and development

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kottek, M.; Rubel, F. [Univ. of Veterinary Medicine, Vienna (Austria). Biometeorology Group

2007-10-15

Global daily precipitation analyses are mainly based on satellite estimates, often calibrated with monthly ground analyses or merged with model predictions. We argue here that an essential improvement of their accuracy is only possible by incorporation of daily ground measurements. In this work we apply geostatistical methods to compile a global precipitation product based on daily rain gauge measurements. The raw ground measurements, disseminated via Global Telecommunication System (GTS), are corrected for their systematic measurement errors and interpolated onto a global 1 degree grid. For interpolation ordinary block kriging is applied, with precalculated spatial auto-correlation functions (ACFs). This technique allows to incorporate additional climate information. First, monthly ACFs are calculated from the daily data; second, they are regionalised according to the five main climatic zones of the Koeppen-Geiger climate classification. The interpolation error, a by-product of kriging, is used to flag grid points as missing if the error is above a predefined threshold. But for many applications missing values constitute a problem. Due to a combination of the ground analyses with the daily multi-satellite product of the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP-1DD) not only these missing values are replaced but also the spatial structure of the satellite estimates is considered. As merging method bivariate ordinary co-kriging is applied. The ACFs necessary for the gauge and the satellite fields as well as the corresponding spatial cross-correlation functions (CCFs) are again precalculated for each of the five main climatic zones and for each individual month. As a result two new global daily data sets for the period 1996 up to today will be available on the Internet (www.gmes-geoland.info): A precipitation product over land, analysed from ground measurements; and a global precipitation product merged from this and the GPCP-1DD multi-satellite product. (orig.)

Amazon River Basin Precipitation, 1972-1992

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — ABSTRACT: The precipitation data is 0.2 degree gridded monthly precipitation data based upon monthly rain data from Peru and Bolivia and daily rain data from Brazil....

The Day-1 GPM Combined Precipitation Algorithm: IMERG

Science.gov (United States)

Huffman, G. J.; Bolvin, D. T.; Braithwaite, D.; Hsu, K.; Joyce, R.; Kidd, C.; Sorooshian, S.; Xie, P.

2012-12-01

The Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission (IMERG) algorithm will provide the at-launch combined-sensor precipitation dataset being produced by the U.S. GPM Science Team. IMERG is being developed as a unified U.S. algorithm that takes advantage of strengths in three current U.S. algorithms: - the TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA), which addresses inter-satellite calibration of precipitation estimates and monthly scale combination of satellite and gauge analyses; - the CPC Morphing algorithm with Kalman Filtering (KF-CMORPH), which provides quality-weighted time interpolation of precipitation patterns following storm motion; and - the Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks using a Cloud Classification System (PERSIANN-CCS), which provides a neural-network-based scheme for generating microwave-calibrated precipitation estimates from geosynchronous infrared brightness temperatures, and filters out some non-raining cold clouds. The goal is to provide a long-term, fine-scale record of global precipitation from the entire constellation of precipitation-relevant satellite sensors, with input from surface precipitation gauges. The record will begin January 1998 at the start of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and extend as GPM records additional data. Although homogeneity is considered desirable, the use of diverse and evolving data sources works against the strict long-term homogeneity that characterizes a Climate Data Record (CDR). This talk will briefly review the design requirements for IMERG, including multiple runs at different latencies (most likely around 4 hours, 12 hours, and 2 months after observation time), various intermediate data fields as part of the IMERG data file, and the plans to bring up IMERG with calibration by TRMM initially, transitioning to GPM when its individual-sensor precipitation algorithms are fully functional

Spatial Ensemble Postprocessing of Precipitation Forecasts Using High Resolution Analyses

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Lang, Moritz N.; Schicker, Irene; Kann, Alexander; Wang, Yong

2017-04-01

Ensemble prediction systems are designed to account for errors or uncertainties in the initial and boundary conditions, imperfect parameterizations, etc. However, due to sampling errors and underestimation of the model errors, these ensemble forecasts tend to be underdispersive, and to lack both reliability and sharpness. To overcome such limitations, statistical postprocessing methods are commonly applied to these forecasts. In this study, a full-distributional spatial post-processing method is applied to short-range precipitation forecasts over Austria using Standardized Anomaly Model Output Statistics (SAMOS). Following Stauffer et al. (2016), observation and forecast fields are transformed into standardized anomalies by subtracting a site-specific climatological mean and dividing by the climatological standard deviation. Due to the need of fitting only a single regression model for the whole domain, the SAMOS framework provides a computationally inexpensive method to create operationally calibrated probabilistic forecasts for any arbitrary location or for all grid points in the domain simultaneously. Taking advantage of the INCA system (Integrated Nowcasting through Comprehensive Analysis), high resolution analyses are used for the computation of the observed climatology and for model training. The INCA system operationally combines station measurements and remote sensing data into real-time objective analysis fields at 1 km-horizontal resolution and 1 h-temporal resolution. The precipitation forecast used in this study is obtained from a limited area model ensemble prediction system also operated by ZAMG. The so called ALADIN-LAEF provides, by applying a multi-physics approach, a 17-member forecast at a horizontal resolution of 10.9 km and a temporal resolution of 1 hour. The performed SAMOS approach statistically combines the in-house developed high resolution analysis and ensemble prediction system. The station-based validation of 6 hour precipitation sums

Modelled Precipitation Over Greenland

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National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This data set includes the annual total precipitation from 1985 to 1999 and monthly total precipitation from January 1985 to December 1999. The data is derived from...

Neonatal Sleep-Wake Analyses Predict 18-month Neurodevelopmental Outcomes.

Science.gov (United States)

Shellhaas, Renée A; Burns, Joseph W; Hassan, Fauziya; Carlson, Martha D; Barks, John D E; Chervin, Ronald D

2017-11-01

The neurological examination of critically ill neonates is largely limited to reflexive behavior. The exam often ignores sleep-wake physiology that may reflect brain integrity and influence long-term outcomes. We assessed whether polysomnography and concurrent cerebral near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) might improve prediction of 18-month neurodevelopmental outcomes. Term newborns with suspected seizures underwent standardized neurologic examinations to generate Thompson scores and had 12-hour bedside polysomnography with concurrent cerebral NIRS. For each infant, the distribution of sleep-wake stages and electroencephalogram delta power were computed. NIRS-derived fractional tissue oxygen extraction (FTOE) was calculated across sleep-wake stages. At age 18-22 months, surviving participants were evaluated with Bayley Scales of Infant Development (Bayley-III), 3rd edition. Twenty-nine participants completed Bayley-III. Increased newborn time in quiet sleep predicted worse 18-month cognitive and motor scores (robust regression models, adjusted r2 = 0.22, p = .007, and 0.27, .004, respectively). Decreased 0.5-2 Hz electroencephalograph (EEG) power during quiet sleep predicted worse 18-month language and motor scores (adjusted r2 = 0.25, p = .0005, and 0.33, .001, respectively). Predictive values remained significant after adjustment for neonatal Thompson scores or exposure to phenobarbital. Similarly, an attenuated difference in FTOE, between neonatal wakefulness and quiet sleep, predicted worse 18-month cognitive, language, and motor scores in adjusted analyses (each p sleep-as quantified by increased time in quiet sleep, lower electroencephalogram delta power during that stage, and muted differences in FTOE between quiet sleep and wakefulness-may improve prediction of adverse long-term outcomes for newborns with neurological dysfunction. © Sleep Research Society 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Sleep Research Society. All rights reserved

United States Historical Climatology Network (US HCN) monthly temperature and precipitation data

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Daniels, R.C. [ed.] [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States). Energy, Environment and Resources Center; Boden, T.A. [ed.] [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States); Easterling, D.R.; Karl, T.R.; Mason, E.H.; Hughes, P.Y.; Bowman, D.P. [National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, NC (United States)

1996-01-11

This document describes a database containing monthly temperature and precipitation data for 1221 stations in the contiguous United States. This network of stations, known as the United States Historical Climatology Network (US HCN), and the resulting database were compiled by the National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, North Carolina. These data represent the best available data from the United States for analyzing long-term climate trends on a regional scale. The data for most stations extend through December 31, 1994, and a majority of the station records are serially complete for at least 80 years. Unlike many data sets that have been used in past climate studies, these data have been adjusted to remove biases introduced by station moves, instrument changes, time-of-observation differences, and urbanization effects. These monthly data are available free of charge as a numeric data package (NDP) from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center. The NDP includes this document and 27 machine-readable data files consisting of supporting data files, a descriptive file, and computer access codes. This document describes how the stations in the US HCN were selected and how the data were processed, defines limitations and restrictions of the data, describes the format and contents of the magnetic media, and provides reprints of literature that discuss the editing and adjustment techniques used in the US HCN.

Three-dimensional nanometer scale analyses of precipitate structures and local compositions in titanium aluminide engineering alloys

Science.gov (United States)

Gerstl, Stephan S. A.

Titanium aluminide (TiAl) alloys are among the fastest developing class of materials for use in high temperature structural applications. Their low density and high strength make them excellent candidates for both engine and airframe applications. Creep properties of TiAl alloys, however, have been a limiting factor in applying the material to a larger commercial market. In this research, nanometer scale compositional and structural analyses of several TiAl alloys, ranging from model Ti-Al-C ternary alloys to putative commercial alloys with 10 components are investigated utilizing three dimensional atom probe (3DAP) and transmission electron microscopies. Nanometer sized borides, silicides, and carbide precipitates are involved in strengthening TiAl alloys, however, chemical partitioning measurements reveal oxygen concentrations up to 14 at. % within the precipitate phases, resulting in the realization of oxycarbide formation contributing to the precipitation strengthening of TiAl alloys. The local compositions of lamellar microstructures and a variety of precipitates in the TiAl system, including boride, silicide, binary carbides, and intermetallic carbides are investigated. Chemical partitioning of the microalloying elements between the alpha2/gamma lamellar phases, and the precipitate/gamma-matrix phases are determined. Both W and Hf have been shown to exhibit a near interfacial excess of 0.26 and 0.35 atoms nm-2 respectively within ca. 7 nm of lamellar interfaces in a complex TiAl alloy. In the case of needle-shaped perovskite Ti3AlC carbide precipitates, periodic domain boundaries are observed 5.3+/-0.8 nm apart along their growth axis parallel to the TiAl[001] crystallographic direction with concomitant composition variations after 24 hrs. at 800°C.

Long-Term Precipitation Analysis and Estimation of Precipitation Concentration Index Using Three Support Vector Machine Methods

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Milan Gocic

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The monthly precipitation data from 29 stations in Serbia during the period of 1946–2012 were considered. Precipitation trends were calculated using linear regression method. Three CLINO periods (1961–1990, 1971–2000, and 1981–2010 in three subregions were analysed. The CLINO 1981–2010 period had a significant increasing trend. Spatial pattern of the precipitation concentration index (PCI was presented. For the purpose of PCI prediction, three Support Vector Machine (SVM models, namely, SVM coupled with the discrete wavelet transform (SVM-Wavelet, the firefly algorithm (SVM-FFA, and using the radial basis function (SVM-RBF, were developed and used. The estimation and prediction results of these models were compared with each other using three statistical indicators, that is, root mean square error, coefficient of determination, and coefficient of efficiency. The experimental results showed that an improvement in predictive accuracy and capability of generalization can be achieved by the SVM-Wavelet approach. Moreover, the results indicated the proposed SVM-Wavelet model can adequately predict the PCI.

Homogenization of monthly precipitation time series in Croatia

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Zahradníček, Pavel; Rasol, D.; Cindric, K.; Štěpánek, Petr

2014-01-01

Roč. 34, č. 14 (2014), s. 3671-3682 ISSN 0899-8418 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) EE2.3.20.0248; GA MŠk(CZ) EE2.4.31.0056 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : homogenization * Croatia * precipitation * inhomogeneities * break points Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 3.157, year: 2014

Observed changes in extreme precipitation in Poland: 1991-2015 versus 1961-1990

Science.gov (United States)

Pińskwar, Iwona; Choryński, Adam; Graczyk, Dariusz; Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W.

2018-01-01

Several episodes of extreme precipitation excess and extreme precipitation deficit, with considerable economic and social impacts, have occurred in Europe and in Poland in the last decades. However, the changes of related indices exhibit complex variability. This paper analyses changes in indices related to observed abundance and deficit of precipitated water in Poland. Among studied indices are maximum seasonal 24-h precipitation for the winter half-year (Oct.-March) and the summer half-year (Apr.-Sept.), maximum 5-day precipitation, maximum monthly precipitation and number of days with intense or very intense precipitation (respectively, in excess of 10 mm or 20 mm per day). Also, the warm-seasonal maximum number of consecutive dry days (longest period with daily precipitation below 1 mm) was examined. Analysis of precipitation extremes showed that daily maximum precipitation for the summer half-year increased for many stations, and increases during the summer half-year are more numerous than those in the winter half-year. Also, analysis of 5-day and monthly precipitation sums show increases for many stations. Number of days with intense precipitation increases especially in the north-western part of Poland. The number of consecutive dry days is getting higher for many stations in the summer half-year. Comparison of these two periods: colder 1961-1990 and warmer 1991-2015, revealed that during last 25 years most of statistical indices, such as 25th and 75th percentiles, median, mean and maximum are higher. However, many changes discussed in this paper are weak and statistically insignificant. The findings reported in this paper challenge results based on earlier data that do not include 2007-2015.

Trend and change point analyses of annual precipitation in the Souss-Massa Region in Morocco during 1932-2010

Science.gov (United States)

Abahous, H.; Ronchail, J.; Sifeddine, A.; Kenny, L.; Bouchaou, L.

2017-11-01

In the context of an arid area such as Souss Massa Region, the availability of time series analysis of observed local data is vital to better characterize the regional rainfall configuration. In this paper, dataset of monthly precipitation collected from different local meteorological stations during 1932-2010, are quality controlled and analyzed to detect trend and change points. The temporal distribution of outliers shows an annual cycle and a decrease of their number since the 1980s. The results of the standard normal homogeneity test, penalized maximal t test, and Mann-Whitney-Pettit test show that 42% of the series are homogeneous. The analysis of annual precipitation in the region of Souss Massa during 1932-2010 shows wet conditions with a maximum between 1963 and 1965 followed by a decrease since 1973. The latter is identified as a statistically significant regional change point in Western High Atlas and Anti Atlas Mountains highlighting a decline in long-term average precipitation.

Self-organizing map network-based precipitation regionalization for the Tibetan Plateau and regional precipitation variability

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Nini; Yin, Jianchuan

2017-12-01

A precipitation-based regionalization for the Tibetan Plateau (TP) was investigated for regional precipitation trend analysis and frequency analysis using data from 1113 grid points covering the period 1900-2014. The results utilizing self-organizing map (SOM) network suggest that four clusters of precipitation coherent zones can be identified, including the southwestern edge, the southern edge, the southeastern region, and the north central region. Regionalization results of the SOM network satisfactorily represent the influences of the atmospheric circulation systems such as the East Asian summer monsoon, the south Asian summer monsoon, and the mid-latitude westerlies. Regionalization results also well display the direct impacts of physical geographical features of the TP such as orography, topography, and land-sea distribution. Regional-scale annual precipitation trend as well as regional differences of annual and seasonal total precipitation were investigated by precipitation index such as precipitation concentration index (PCI) and Standardized Anomaly Index (SAI). Results demonstrate significant negative long-term linear trends in southeastern TP and the north central part of the TP, indicating arid and semi-arid regions in the TP are getting drier. The empirical mode decomposition (EMD) method shows an evolution of the main cycle with 4 and 12 months for all the representative grids of four sub-regions. The cross-wavelet analysis suggests that predominant and effective period of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) on monthly precipitation is around ˜12 months, except for the representative grid of the northwestern region.

Is convective precipitation increasing? The case of Catalonia

Science.gov (United States)

Llasat, M. C.; Marcos, R.; Turco, M.

2012-04-01

A recent work (Turco and Llasat, 2011) has been performed to analyse the trends of the ETCCDI (Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices) precipitation indices in Catalonia (NE Iberian Peninsula) from 1951 to 2003, calculated from a interpolated dataset of daily precipitation, namely SPAIN02, regular at 0.2° horizontal resolution. This work has showed that no general trends at a regional scale have been observed, considering the annual and the seasonal regional values, and only the consecutive dry days index (CDD) at annual scale shows a locally coherent spatial trend pattern. Simultaneously, Llasat et al (2009, 2010) have showed an important increase of flash-flood events in the same region. Although aspects related with vulnerability, exposure and changes in uses of soil have been found as the main responsible of this increase, a major knowledge on the evolution of high rainfall events is mandatory. Heavy precipitation is usually associated to convective precipitation and therefore the analysis of the latter is a good indicator of it. Particularly, in Catalonia, funding was raised to define a parameter, designated as β, related with the greater or lesser convective character of the precipitation (Llasat, 2001). This parameter estimates the contribution of convective precipitation to total precipitation using 1-min or 5-min rainfall intensities usually estimated by rain gauges and it can be also analysed by means of the meteorological radar (Llasat et al, 2007). Its monthly distribution shows a maximum in August, followed by September, which are the months with the major number of flash-floods in Catalonia. This parameter also allows distinguishing between different kinds of precipitation events taking into account the degree of convective contribution. The main problem is the lack of long rainfall rate series that allow analysing trends in convective precipitation. The second one is related with its heterogeneous spatial and temporal distribution. To

Monthly Rainfall Erosivity Assessment for Switzerland

Science.gov (United States)

Schmidt, Simon; Meusburger, Katrin; Alewell, Christine

2016-04-01

Water erosion is crucially controlled by rainfall erosivity, which is quantified out of the kinetic energy of raindrop impact and associated surface runoff. Rainfall erosivity is often expressed as the R-factor in soil erosion risk models like the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) and its revised version (RUSLE). Just like precipitation, the rainfall erosivity of Switzerland has a characteristic seasonal dynamic throughout the year. This inter-annual variability is to be assessed by a monthly and seasonal modelling approach. We used a network of 86 precipitation gauging stations with a 10-minute temporal resolution to calculate long-term average monthly R-factors. Stepwise regression and Monte Carlo Cross Validation (MCCV) was used to select spatial covariates to explain the spatial pattern of R-factor for each month across Switzerland. The regionalized monthly R-factor is mapped by its individual regression equation and the ordinary kriging interpolation of its residuals (Regression-Kriging). As covariates, a variety of precipitation indicator data has been included like snow height, a combination of hourly gauging measurements and radar observations (CombiPrecip), mean monthly alpine precipitation (EURO4M-APGD) and monthly precipitation sums (Rhires). Topographic parameters were also significant explanatory variables for single months. The comparison of all 12 monthly rainfall erosivity maps showed seasonality with highest rainfall erosivity in summer (June, July, and August) and lowest rainfall erosivity in winter months. Besides the inter-annual temporal regime, a seasonal spatial variability was detectable. Spatial maps of monthly rainfall erosivity are presented for the first time for Switzerland. The assessment of the spatial and temporal dynamic behaviour of the R-factor is valuable for the identification of more susceptible seasons and regions as well as for the application of selective erosion control measures. A combination with monthly vegetation

Tritium Level in Romanian Precipitation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Varlam, C.; Stefanescu, I.; Faurescu, I.; Bogdan, D.; Soare, A. [Institute for Cryogenic and Isotope Technologies, Rm. Valcea (Romania); Duliu, O. G. [Faculty of Physics, University of Bucharest, Magurele (Romania)

2013-07-15

Romania is one of the countries that has no station included in GNIP (Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation) on its territory. This paper presents results regarding the tritium concentration in precipitation for the period 1999-2009. The precipitation fell at the Institute for cryogenic and Isotope technologies (geographical coordinates: altitude 237 m, latitude 45{sup o}02'07' N, longitude 24{sup o}17'03' E) an was collected both individually and as a composite average of each month. It was individually measured and the average was calculated and compared with the tritium concentration measured in the composite sample. tritium concentration levels ranged from 9.9 {+-} 2.1 TU for 2004 and 13.7 {+-} 2.2 TU for 2009. Comparing the arithmetic mean values with the weighted mean for the period of observation, it was noticed that the higher absolute values of the weighted means were constant. It was found that for the calculated monthly average for the period of observation (1999-2009), the months with the maximum tritium concentration are the same as the months with the maximum amount of precipitation. This behaviour is typical for the monitored location. (author)

Improvements to the gridding of precipitation data across Europe under the E-OBS scheme

Science.gov (United States)

Cornes, Richard; van den Besselaar, Else; Jones, Phil; van der Schrier, Gerard; Verver, Ge

2016-04-01

Gridded precipitation data are a valuable resource for analyzing past variations and trends in the hydroclimate. Such data also provide a reference against which model simulations may be driven, compared and/or adjusted. The E-OBS precipitation dataset is widely used for such analyses across Europe, and is particularly valuable since it provides a spatially complete, daily field across the European domain. In this analysis, improvements to the E-OBS precipitation dataset will be presented that aim to provide a more reliable estimate of grid-box precipitation values, particularly in mountainous areas and in regions with a relative sparsity of input station data. The established three-stage E-OBS gridding scheme is retained, whereby monthly precipitation totals are gridded using a thin-plate spline; daily anomalies are gridded using indicator kriging; and the final dataset is produced by multiplying the two grids. The current analysis focuses on improving the monthly thin-plate spline, which has overall control on the final daily dataset. The results from different techniques are compared and the influence on the final daily data is assessed by comparing the data against gridded country-wide datasets produced by various National Meteorological Services

MAP3S precipitation chemistry network: fourth periodic summary report (1980)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1981-12-01

This, the fourth in a series of summary reports, contains complete field and chemical data from the MAP3S/RAINE (Multistate Atmospheric Power Production Pollution Studies) Precipitation Chemistry Network for the year 1980. The 1980 data were added to the previous data base, and an update of the previous statistical summary completed. Included are basic statistics, time trend analyses, and monthly averages.

Soil response to long-term projections of extreme temperature and precipitation in the southern La Plata Basin

Science.gov (United States)

Pántano, Vanesa C.; Penalba, Olga C.

2017-12-01

Projected changes were estimated considering the main variables which take part in soil-atmosphere interaction. The analysis was focused on the potential impact of these changes on soil hydric condition under extreme precipitation and evapotranspiration, using the combination of Global Climate Models (GCMs) and observational data. The region of study is the southern La Plata Basin that covers part of Argentine territory, where rainfed agriculture production is one of the most important economic activities. Monthly precipitation and maximum and minimum temperatures were used from high quality-controlled observed data from 46 meteorological stations and the ensemble of seven CMIP5 GCMs in two periods: 1970-2005 and 2065-2100. Projected changes in monthly effective temperature and precipitation were analysed. These changes were combined with observed series for each probabilistic interval. The result was used as input variables for the water balance model in order to obtain consequent soil hydric condition (deficit or excess). Effective temperature and precipitation are expected to increase according to the projections of GCMs, with few exceptions. The analysis revealed increase (decrease) in the prevalence of evapotranspiration over precipitation, during spring (winter). Projections for autumn months show precipitation higher than potential evapotranspiration more frequently. Under dry extremes, the analysis revealed higher projected deficit conditions, impacting on crop development. On the other hand, under wet extremes, excess would reach higher values only in particular months. During December, projected increase in temperatures reduces the impact of extreme high precipitation but favours deficit conditions, affecting flower-fructification stage of summer crops.

The effect of ambient air temperature and precipitation on monthly counts of salmonellosis in four regions of Kazakhstan, Central Asia, in 2000-2010.

Science.gov (United States)

Grjibovski, A M; Kosbayeva, A; Menne, B

2014-03-01

We studied associations between monthly counts of laboratory-confirmed cases of salmonellosis, ambient air temperature and precipitation in four settings in Kazakhstan. We observed a linear association between the number of cases of salmonellosis and mean monthly temperature during the same months only in Astana: an increase of 1°C was associated with a 5·5% [95% confidence interval (CI) 2·2-8·8] increase in the number of cases. A similar association, although not reaching the level of significance was observed in the Southern Kazakhstan region (3·5%, 95% CI -2·1 to 9·1). Positive association with precipitation with lag 2 was found in Astana: an increase of 1 mm was associated with a 0·5% (95% CI 0·1-1·0) increase in the number of cases. A similar association, but with lag 0 was observed in Southern Kazakhstan region (0·6%, 95% CI 0·1-1·1). The results may have implications for the future patterns of salmonellosis in Kazakhstan with regard to climate change.

Impact of Precipitation Fluctuation on Desert-Grassland ANPP

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Liangxu Liu

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Precipitation change has significantly influenced annual net primary productivity (ANPP at either annual or seasonal scales in desert steppes in arid and semi-arid regions. In order to reveal the process of precipitation driving ANPP at different time scales, responses of different ANPP levels to the inter-annual and intra-annual precipitation fluctuations were analyzed. ANPP was reversed by building a ground reflectance spectrum model, from 2000 to 2015, using the normalized differential vegetation index of the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS-NDVI data at 250 m × 250 m spatial resolution. Since the description of the differently expressing forms of precipitation are not sufficient in former studies in order to overcome the deficiency of former studies, in this study, intra-annual precipitation fluctuations were analyzed not only with precipitation of May–August, June–August, July–August, and August, respectively, which have direct influence on vegetation productivity within the year, but quantitative description, vector precipitation (R, concentration ratio (Cd, and concentration period (D, were also used to describe the overall characteristics of intra-annual precipitation fluctuations. The concentration ratio and the maximum precipitation period of the intra-annual precipitation were represented by using monthly precipitation. The results showed that: (1 in the period from 1971 to 2015, the maximum annual precipitation is 3.76 times that of the minimum in the Urat desert steppe; (2 vector precipitation is more significantly related to ANPP (r = 0.7724, p = 0.000 compared to meteorological annual precipitation and real annual precipitation influence; and (3 annual precipitation is almost concentrated in 5–8 months and monthly precipitation accumulation has significantly effected ANPP, especially in the period of June–August, since the vegetation composition in the study area was mainly sub-shrubs and perennial

Environmental isotope data no.1: World survey of isotope concentration in precipitation (1953-1963)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1969-01-01

This volume reports environmental isotope (tritium, deuterium and oxygen-18) concentrations in monthly samples of precipitation taken by a global network of 155 stations in the period 1953-1963. Selected meteorological data (amount of precipitation, vapour pressure and temperature) are presented to aid the user in hydrological and hydrometerological studies. The collection of the precipitation samples is carried out by the meteorological services of 65 countries and territories. Analyses of the network samples are done in co-operating laboratories in Canada, Denmark, India, Israel, New Zealand, Sweden and the United States of America and in the IAEA laboratory in Vienna. 4 refs, 2 figs

Precipitation from Space: Advancing Earth System Science

Science.gov (United States)

Kucera, Paul A.; Ebert, Elizabeth E.; Turk, F. Joseph; Levizzani, Vicenzo; Kirschbaum, Dalia; Tapiador, Francisco J.; Loew, Alexander; Borsche, M.

2012-01-01

Of the three primary sources of spatially contiguous precipitation observations (surface networks, ground-based radar, and satellite-based radar/radiometers), only the last is a viable source over ocean and much of the Earth's land. As recently as 15 years ago, users needing quantitative detail of precipitation on anything under a monthly time scale relied upon products derived from geostationary satellite thermal infrared (IR) indices. The Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSMI) passive microwave (PMW) imagers originated in 1987 and continue today with the SSMI sounder (SSMIS) sensor. The fortunate longevity of the joint National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) is providing the environmental science community a nearly unbroken data record (as of April 2012, over 14 years) of tropical and sub-tropical precipitation processes. TRMM was originally conceived in the mid-1980s as a climate mission with relatively modest goals, including monthly averaged precipitation. TRMM data were quickly exploited for model data assimilation and, beginning in 1999 with the availability of near real time data, for tropical cyclone warnings. To overcome the intermittently spaced revisit from these and other low Earth-orbiting satellites, many methods to merge PMW-based precipitation data and geostationary satellite observations have been developed, such as the TRMM Multisatellite Precipitation Product and the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) morphing method (CMORPH. The purpose of this article is not to provide a survey or assessment of these and other satellite-based precipitation datasets, which are well summarized in several recent articles. Rather, the intent is to demonstrate how the availability and continuity of satellite-based precipitation data records is transforming the ways that scientific and societal issues related to precipitation are addressed, in ways that would not be

Application of Observed Precipitation in NCEP Global and Regional Data Assimilation Systems, Including Reanalysis and Land Data Assimilation

Science.gov (United States)

Mitchell, K. E.

2006-12-01

The Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) applies several different analyses of observed precipitation in both the data assimilation and validation components of NCEP's global and regional numerical weather and climate prediction/analysis systems (including in NCEP global and regional reanalysis). This invited talk will survey these data assimilation and validation applications and methodologies, as well as the temporal frequency, spatial domains, spatial resolution, data sources, data density and data quality control in the precipitation analyses that are applied. Some of the precipitation analyses applied by EMC are produced by NCEP's Climate Prediction Center (CPC), while others are produced by the River Forecast Centers (RFCs) of the National Weather Service (NWS), or by automated algorithms of the NWS WSR-88D Radar Product Generator (RPG). Depending on the specific type of application in data assimilation or model forecast validation, the temporal resolution of the precipitation analyses may be hourly, daily, or pentad (5-day) and the domain may be global, continental U.S. (CONUS), or Mexico. The data sources for precipitation include ground-based gauge observations, radar-based estimates, and satellite-based estimates. The precipitation analyses over the CONUS are analyses of either hourly, daily or monthly totals of precipitation, and they are of two distinct types: gauge-only or primarily radar-estimated. The gauge-only CONUS analysis of daily precipitation utilizes an orographic-adjustment technique (based on the well-known PRISM precipitation climatology of Oregon State University) developed by the NWS Office of Hydrologic Development (OHD). The primary NCEP global precipitation analysis is the pentad CPC Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP), which blends both gauge observations and satellite estimates. The presentation will include a brief comparison between the CMAP analysis and other global

Tritium time series in precipitation of Rm. Valcea, Romania.

Science.gov (United States)

Varlam, Carmen; Duliu, Octavian G; Faurescu, Ionut; Vagner, Irina; Faurescu, Denisa

2016-01-01

Following tritium concentration records in precipitation for the period 1999-2013 and tritium concentration behaviour during this period for the Ramnicu Valcea (Rm. Valcea) location, the tritium level of individual precipitations of the late spring and summer for the 2009-2013 period was investigated. Despite good correlation between monthly mean tritium concentrations and monthly mean precipitations over the 15-year period of observations (Pearson coefficient 0.87), the individual precipitations had no linear correlation between the tritium concentration and the amount of precipitation.

Seasonal and ENSO Influences on the Stable Isotopic Composition of Galápagos Precipitation

Science.gov (United States)

Martin, N. J.; Conroy, J. L.; Noone, D.; Cobb, K. M.; Konecky, B. L.; Rea, S.

2018-01-01

The origin of stable isotopic variability in precipitation over time and space is critical to the interpretation of stable isotope-based paleoclimate proxies. In the eastern equatorial Pacific, modern stable isotope measurements in precipitation (δ18Op and δDp) are sparse and largely unevaluated in the literature, although insights from such analyses would benefit the interpretations of several regional isotope-based paleoclimate records. Here we present a new 3.5 year record of daily-resolved δ18Op and δDp from Santa Cruz, Galápagos. With a prior 13 year record of monthly δ18Op and δDp from the island, these new data reveal controls on the stable isotopic composition of regional precipitation on event to interannual time scales. Overall, we find Galápagos δ18Op is significantly correlated with precipitation amount on daily and monthly time scales. The majority of Galápagos rain events are drizzle, or garúa, derived from local marine boundary layer vapor, with corresponding high δ18Op values due to the local source and increased evaporation and equilibration of smaller drops with boundary layer vapor. On monthly time scales, only precipitation in very strong, warm season El Niño months has substantially lower δ18Op values, as the sea surface temperature threshold for deep convection (28°C) is only surpassed at these times. The 2015/2016 El Niño event did not produce strong precipitation or δ18Op anomalies due to the short period of warm SST anomalies, which did not extend into the peak of the warm season. Eastern Pacific proxy isotope records may be biased toward periods of high rainfall during strong to very strong El Niño events.

Precipitation Dynamical Downscaling Over the Great Plains

Science.gov (United States)

Hu, Xiao-Ming; Xue, Ming; McPherson, Renee A.; Martin, Elinor; Rosendahl, Derek H.; Qiao, Lei

2018-02-01

Detailed, regional climate projections, particularly for precipitation, are critical for many applications. Accurate precipitation downscaling in the United States Great Plains remains a great challenge for most Regional Climate Models, particularly for warm months. Most previous dynamic downscaling simulations significantly underestimate warm-season precipitation in the region. This study aims to achieve a better precipitation downscaling in the Great Plains with the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model. To this end, WRF simulations with different physics schemes and nudging strategies are first conducted for a representative warm season. Results show that different cumulus schemes lead to more pronounced difference in simulated precipitation than other tested physics schemes. Simply choosing different physics schemes is not enough to alleviate the dry bias over the southern Great Plains, which is related to an anticyclonic circulation anomaly over the central and western parts of continental U.S. in the simulations. Spectral nudging emerges as an effective solution for alleviating the precipitation bias. Spectral nudging ensures that large and synoptic-scale circulations are faithfully reproduced while still allowing WRF to develop small-scale dynamics, thus effectively suppressing the large-scale circulation anomaly in the downscaling. As a result, a better precipitation downscaling is achieved. With the carefully validated configurations, WRF downscaling is conducted for 1980-2015. The downscaling captures well the spatial distribution of monthly climatology precipitation and the monthly/yearly variability, showing improvement over at least two previously published precipitation downscaling studies. With the improved precipitation downscaling, a better hydrological simulation over the trans-state Oologah watershed is also achieved.

Effective Assimilation of Global Precipitation

Science.gov (United States)

Lien, G.; Kalnay, E.; Miyoshi, T.; Huffman, G. J.

2012-12-01

Assimilating precipitation observations by modifying the moisture and sometimes temperature profiles has been shown successful in forcing the model precipitation to be close to the observed precipitation, but only while the assimilation is taking place. After the forecast start, the model tends to "forget" the assimilation changes and lose their extra skill after few forecast hours. This suggests that this approach is not an efficient way to modify the potential vorticity field, since this is the variable that the model would remember. In this study, the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) method is used to effectively change the potential vorticity field by allowing ensemble members with better precipitation to receive higher weights. In addition to using an EnKF, two other changes in the precipitation assimilation process are proposed to solve the problems related to the highly non-Gaussian nature of the precipitation variable: a) transform precipitation into a Gaussian distribution based on its climatological distribution, and b) only assimilate precipitation at the location where some ensemble members have positive precipitation. The idea is first tested by the observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) using SPEEDY, a simplified but realistic general circulation model. When the global precipitation is assimilated in addition to conventional rawinsonde observations, both the analyses and the medium range forecasts are significantly improved as compared to only having rawinsonde observations. The improvement is much reduced when only modifying the moisture field with the same approach, which shows the importance of the error covariance between precipitation and all other model variables. The effect of precipitation assimilation is larger in the Southern Hemisphere than that in the Northern Hemisphere because the Northern Hemisphere analyses are already accurate as a result of denser rawinsonde stations. Assimilation of precipitation using a more comprehensive

461 TIME SERIES ANALYSES OF MEAN MONTHLY RAINFALL ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Osondu

insidious hazard of nature that originated from a deficiency of ... as the main input into the hydrological cycle provides water for .... maritime air mass from the Atlantic Ocean and ... The forest vegetation in some parts of ... neighboring Niger Republic, while river Sokoto ..... basin by using the standardised precipitation index ...

Acidity of Scandinavian precipitation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Barrett, E; Bordin, G

1955-01-01

Data on the pH of the total monthly precipitation at stations of a Swedish network for sampling and chemical analysis of precipitation and atmospheric aerosols during the year July 1953 to June 1954 are presented and discussed, together with the pH data from the first two months of operation of a large pan-Scandinavian net. It is found that well-defined regions of acidity and alkalinity relative to the pH of water in equilibrium with atmospheric carbon dioxide exist, and that these regions persist to such an extent that the monthly deviations from the pattern of the annual mean pH at stations unaffected by local pollution show persistently high acidity, while inland northern stations show equally persistent alkalinity. Some possible reasons for the observed distributions are considered.

Antecedent precipitation index evaluation at chosen climatological stations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Silvie Kozlovská

2010-01-01

Full Text Available The water retention capacity of a landscape, usually measured for a catchment basin, is a very important and decisive characteristic to identify the runoff amount from the catchment area and, in consequence, for antierosion and flood protection measures. Besides, creating water reserves in the landscape and keeping the water in them is also rather important.Soil humidity contributes to the calculation of potential water retention through modelling the runoff amount and peak discharge from the catchment basin within an area not larger than 5–10 km2. This method is based on curve number values (CN, which are tabulated according to hydrological characteristics of soils, land use, vegetation cover, tillage, antierosion measures and soil humidity, estimated as a 5-day sum of preceding precipitation values. This estimation is known as the antecedent precipitation index and it is divided into 3 degrees – I, II, III. Degree I indicates dry soil but still moist enough to till, whereas degree III means that the soil is oversaturated by water from preceding rainfall. Degree II is commonly used in this context as the antecedent precipitation index. The aim of this paper is to obtain real antecedent precipitation index values in given climatological stations (Brno, Dačice, Holešov, Náměšť nad Oslavou, Strážnice, Telč – Kostelní Myslová, Velké Meziříčí, Znojmo – Kuchařovice for the period of years 1961 – 2009. Daily precipitation sums higher than 30 mm were considered to be the best candidate for such precipitation value since this occurs approximately once a year in studied areas. The occurence of these sums was also analysed for each month within the growing season (April to October. The analysed data was tabulated by climatological stations in order to check the real occurence of all antecedent precipitation index degrees within the studied period.Finally, the effects of different antecedent precipitation index values on the

"Cool" vs. "warm" winter precipitation and its effect on streamflow in California

OpenAIRE

Cayan, Daniel R.

1991-01-01

Precipitation is a difficult variable to understand and predict. In this study, monthly precipitation in California is divided into two classes according to the monthly temperature to better diagnose the atmospheric circulation that causes precipitation, and to illustrate how temperature compounds the precipitation to runoff process.

Evaluation of satellite-retrieved extreme precipitation using gauge observations

Science.gov (United States)

Lockhoff, M.; Zolina, O.; Simmer, C.; Schulz, J.

2012-04-01

Precipitation extremes have already been intensively studied employing rain gauge datasets. Their main advantage is that they represent a direct measurement with a relatively high temporal coverage. Their main limitation however is their poor spatial coverage and thus a low representativeness in many parts of the world. In contrast, satellites can provide global coverage and there are meanwhile data sets available that are on one hand long enough to be used for extreme value analysis and that have on the other hand the necessary spatial and temporal resolution to capture extremes. However, satellite observations provide only an indirect mean to determine precipitation and there are many potential observational and methodological weaknesses in particular over land surfaces that may constitute doubts concerning their usability for the analysis of precipitation extremes. By comparing basic climatological metrics of precipitation (totals, intensities, number of wet days) as well as respective characteristics of PDFs, absolute and relative extremes of satellite and observational data this paper aims at assessing to which extent satellite products are suitable for analysing extreme precipitation events. In a first step the assessment focuses on Europe taking into consideration various satellite products available, e.g. data sets provided by the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). First results indicate that satellite-based estimates do not only represent the monthly averaged precipitation very similar to rain gauge estimates but they also capture the day-to-day occurrence fairly well. Larger differences can be found though when looking at the corresponding intensities.

Precipitation variability assessment of northeast China: Songhua ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

Variability in precipitation is critical for the management of water resources. ... applied on precipitation data on a monthly, seasonally, annually, decade scale and the number of rainy ... 2015). As a result, such irregularities in precipitation,. i.e., droughts and floods can affect the ... (January–December), years and decades.

Evaluation of CMIP5 continental precipitation simulations relative to satellite-based gauge-adjusted observations

Science.gov (United States)

Mehran, A.; AghaKouchak, A.; Phillips, T. J.

2014-02-01

The objective of this study is to cross-validate 34 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) historical simulations of precipitation against the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) data, quantifying model pattern discrepancies, and biases for both entire distributions and their upper tails. The results of the volumetric hit index (VHI) analysis of the total monthly precipitation amounts show that most CMIP5 simulations are in good agreement with GPCP patterns in many areas but that their replication of observed precipitation over arid regions and certain subcontinental regions (e.g., northern Eurasia, eastern Russia, and central Australia) is problematical. Overall, the VHI of the multimodel ensemble mean and median also are superior to that of the individual CMIP5 models. However, at high quantiles of reference data (75th and 90th percentiles), all climate models display low skill in simulating precipitation, except over North America, the Amazon, and Central Africa. Analyses of total bias (B) in CMIP5 simulations reveal that most models overestimate precipitation over regions of complex topography (e.g., western North and South America and southern Africa and Asia), while underestimating it over arid regions. Also, while most climate model simulations show low biases over Europe, intermodel variations in bias over Australia and Amazonia are considerable. The quantile bias analyses indicate that CMIP5 simulations are even more biased at high quantiles of precipitation. It is found that a simple mean field bias removal improves the overall B and VHI values but does not make a significant improvement at high quantiles of precipitation.

Average monthly and annual climate maps for Bolivia

KAUST Repository

Vicente-Serrano, Sergio M.

2015-02-24

This study presents monthly and annual climate maps for relevant hydroclimatic variables in Bolivia. We used the most complete network of precipitation and temperature stations available in Bolivia, which passed a careful quality control and temporal homogenization procedure. Monthly average maps at the spatial resolution of 1 km were modeled by means of a regression-based approach using topographic and geographic variables as predictors. The monthly average maximum and minimum temperatures, precipitation and potential exoatmospheric solar radiation under clear sky conditions are used to estimate the monthly average atmospheric evaporative demand by means of the Hargreaves model. Finally, the average water balance is estimated on a monthly and annual scale for each 1 km cell by means of the difference between precipitation and atmospheric evaporative demand. The digital layers used to create the maps are available in the digital repository of the Spanish National Research Council.

TRMM Version 7 Level 3 Gridded Monthly Accumulations of GPROF Precipitation Retrievals

Science.gov (United States)

Stocker, E. F.; Kelley, O. A.

2012-01-01

In July 2011, improved versions of the retrieval algorithms were approved for TRMM. All data starting with June 2011 are produced only with the version 7 code. At the same time, version 7 reprocessing of all TRMM mission data was started. By the end of August 2011, the 14+ years of the reprocessed mission data became available online to users. This reprocessing provided the opportunity to redo and enhance upon an analysis of V7 impacts on L3 data accumulations that was presented at the 2010 EGU General Assembly. This paper will discuss the impact of algorithm changes made in th GPROF retrieval on the Level 2 swath products. Perhaps the most important change in that retrieval was to replacement of a model based a priori database with one created from Precipitation Radar (PR) and TMI brightness temperature (Tb) data. The radar pays a major role in the V7 GPROF (GPROF2010) in determining existence of rain. The level 2 retrieval algorithm also introduced a field providing the probability of rain. This combined use of the PR has some impact on the retrievals and created areas, particularly over ocean, where many areas of low-probability precipitation are retrieved whereas in version 6, these areas contained zero rain rates. This paper will discuss how these impacts get translated to the space/time averaged monthly products that use the GPROF retrievals. The level 3 products discussed are the gridded text product 3G68 and the standard 3A12 and 3B31 products. The paper provides an overview of the changes and explanation of how the level 3 products dealt with the change in the retrieval approach. Using the .25 deg x .25 degree grid, the paper will show that agreement between the swath product and the level 3 remains very high. It will also present comparisons of V6 and V7 GPROF retrievals as seen both at the swath level and the level 3 time/space gridded accumulations. It will show that the various L3 products based on GPROF level 2 retrievals are in close agreement. The

The trend of the multi-scale temporal variability of precipitation in Colorado River Basin

Science.gov (United States)

Jiang, P.; Yu, Z.

2011-12-01

Hydrological problems like estimation of flood and drought frequencies under future climate change are not well addressed as a result of the disability of current climate models to provide reliable prediction (especially for precipitation) shorter than 1 month. In order to assess the possible impacts that multi-scale temporal distribution of precipitation may have on the hydrological processes in Colorado River Basin (CRB), a comparative analysis of multi-scale temporal variability of precipitation as well as the trend of extreme precipitation is conducted in four regions controlled by different climate systems. Multi-scale precipitation variability including within-storm patterns and intra-annual, inter-annual and decadal variabilities will be analyzed to explore the possible trends of storm durations, inter-storm periods, average storm precipitation intensities and extremes under both long-term natural climate variability and human-induced warming. Further more, we will examine the ability of current climate models to simulate the multi-scale temporal variability and extremes of precipitation. On the basis of these analyses, a statistical downscaling method will be developed to disaggregate the future precipitation scenarios which will provide a more reliable and finer temporal scale precipitation time series for hydrological modeling. Analysis results and downscaling results will be presented.

Using GRACE to constrain precipitation amount over cold mountainous basins

Science.gov (United States)

Behrangi, Ali; Gardner, Alex S.; Reager, John T.; Fisher, Joshua B.

2017-01-01

Despite the importance for hydrology and climate-change studies, current quantitative knowledge on the amount and distribution of precipitation in mountainous and high-elevation regions is limited due to instrumental and retrieval shortcomings. Here by focusing on two large endorheic basins in High Mountain Asia, we show that satellite gravimetry (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE)) can be used to provide an independent estimate of monthly accumulated precipitation using mass balance equation. Results showed that the GRACE-based precipitation estimate has the highest agreement with most of the commonly used precipitation products in summer, but it deviates from them in cold months, when the other products are expected to have larger errors. It was found that most of the products capture about or less than 50% of the total precipitation estimated using GRACE in winter. Overall, Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) showed better agreement with GRACE estimate than other products. Yet on average GRACE showed 30% more annual precipitation than GPCP in the study basins. In basins of appropriate size with an absence of dense ground measurements, as is a typical case in cold mountainous regions, we find GRACE can be a viable alternative to constrain monthly and seasonal precipitation estimates from other remotely sensed precipitation products that show large bias.

The global historical climatology network: Long-term monthly temperature, precipitation, and pressure data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vose, R.S.; Schmoyer, R.L.; Peterson, T.C.; Steurer, P.M.; Heim, R.R. Jr.; Karl, T.R.; Eischeid, J.K.

1992-01-01

Interest in global climate change has risen dramatically during the past several decades. In a similar fashion, the number of data sets available to study global change has also increased. Unfortunately, many different organizations and researchers have compiled these data sets, making it confusing and time consuming for individuals to acquire the most comprehensive data. In response to this rapid growth in the number of global data sets, DOE's Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) and NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) established the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) project. The purpose of this project is to compile an improved data set of long-term monthly mean temperature, precipitation, sea level pressure, and station pressure for as dense a network of global stations as possible. Specifically, the GHCN project seeks to consolidate the numerous preexisting national-, regional-, and global-scale data sets into a single global data base; to subject the data to rigorous quality control; and to update, enhance, and distribute the data set at regular intervals. The purpose of this paper is to describe the compilation and contents of the GHCN data base (i.e., GHCN Version 1.0)

Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes observed in Modena, Italy

Science.gov (United States)

Boccolari, M.; Malmusi, S.

2013-03-01

Climate changes has become one of the most analysed subjects from researchers community, mainly because of the numerous extreme events that hit the globe. To have a better view of climate changes and trends, long observations time series are needed. During last decade a lot of Italian time series, concerning several surface meteorological variables, have been analysed and published. No one of them includes one of the longest record in Italy, the time series of the Geophysical Observatory of the University of Modena and Reggio Emilia. Measurements, collected since early 19th century, always in the same position, except for some months during the second world war, embrace daily temperature, precipitation amount, relative humidity, pressure, cloudiness and other variables. In this work we concentrated on the analysis of yearly and seasonal trends and climate extremes of temperature, both minimum and maximum, and precipitation time series, for the periods 1861-2010 and 1831-2010 respectively, in which continuous measurements are available. In general, our results confirm quite well those reported by IPCC and in many other studies over Mediterranean area. In particular, we found that minimum temperature has a non significant positive trend of + 0.1 °C per decade considering all the period, the value increases to 0.9 °C per decade for 1981-2010. For maximum temperature we observed a non significant + 0.1 °C trend for all the period, while + 0.8 °C for the last thirty years. On the other hand precipitation is decreasing, -6.3 mm per decade, considering all the analysed period, while the last thirty years are characterised by a great increment of 74.8 mm per decade. For both variables several climate indices have been analysed and they confirm what has been found for minimum and maximum temperatures and precipitation. In particular, during last 30 years frost days and ice days are decreasing, whereas summer days are increasing. During the last 30-year tropical nights

Regionalization of monthly rainfall erosivity patternsin Switzerland

Science.gov (United States)

Schmidt, Simon; Alewell, Christine; Panagos, Panos; Meusburger, Katrin

2016-10-01

One major controlling factor of water erosion is rainfall erosivity, which is quantified as the product of total storm energy and a maximum 30 min intensity (I30). Rainfall erosivity is often expressed as R-factor in soil erosion risk models like the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) and its revised version (RUSLE). As rainfall erosivity is closely correlated with rainfall amount and intensity, the rainfall erosivity of Switzerland can be expected to have a regional characteristic and seasonal dynamic throughout the year. This intra-annual variability was mapped by a monthly modeling approach to assess simultaneously spatial and monthly patterns of rainfall erosivity. So far only national seasonal means and regional annual means exist for Switzerland. We used a network of 87 precipitation gauging stations with a 10 min temporal resolution to calculate long-term monthly mean R-factors. Stepwise generalized linear regression (GLM) and leave-one-out cross-validation (LOOCV) were used to select spatial covariates which explain the spatial and temporal patterns of the R-factor for each month across Switzerland. The monthly R-factor is mapped by summarizing the predicted R-factor of the regression equation and the corresponding residues of the regression, which are interpolated by ordinary kriging (regression-kriging). As spatial covariates, a variety of precipitation indicator data has been included such as snow depths, a combination product of hourly precipitation measurements and radar observations (CombiPrecip), daily Alpine precipitation (EURO4M-APGD), and monthly precipitation sums (RhiresM). Topographic parameters (elevation, slope) were also significant explanatory variables for single months. The comparison of the 12 monthly rainfall erosivity maps showed a distinct seasonality with the highest rainfall erosivity in summer (June, July, and August) influenced by intense rainfall events. Winter months have the lowest rainfall erosivity. A proportion of 62 % of

Precipitation in a lead calcium tin anode

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pérez-González, Francisco A.; Camurri, Carlos G.; Carrasco, Claudia A.; Colás, Rafael

2012-01-01

Samples from a hot rolled sheet of a tin and calcium bearing lead alloy were solution heat treated at 300 °C and cooled down to room temperature at different rates; these samples were left at room temperature to study natural precipitation of CaSn 3 particles. The samples were aged for 45 days before analysing their microstructure, which was carried out in a scanning electron microscope using secondary and backscattered electron detectors. Selected X-ray spectra analyses were conducted to verify the nature of the precipitates. Images were taken at different magnifications in both modes of observation to locate the precipitates and record their position within the images and calculate the distance between them. Differential scanning calorimeter analyses were conducted on selected samples. It was found that the mechanical properties of the material correlate with the minimum average distance between precipitates, which is related to the average cooling rate from solution heat treatment. - Highlights: ► The distance between precipitates in a lead alloy is recorded. ► The relationship between the distance and the cooling rate is established. ► It is found that the strengthening of the alloy depends on the distance between precipitates.

Effective assimilation of global precipitation: simulation experiments

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Guo-Yuan Lien

2013-07-01

Full Text Available Past attempts to assimilate precipitation by nudging or variational methods have succeeded in forcing the model precipitation to be close to the observed values. However, the model forecasts tend to lose their additional skill after a few forecast hours. In this study, a local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF is used to effectively assimilate precipitation by allowing ensemble members with better precipitation to receive higher weights in the analysis. In addition, two other changes in the precipitation assimilation process are found to alleviate the problems related to the non-Gaussianity of the precipitation variable: (a transform the precipitation variable into a Gaussian distribution based on its climatological distribution (an approach that could also be used in the assimilation of other non-Gaussian observations and (b only assimilate precipitation at the location where at least some ensemble members have precipitation. Unlike many current approaches, both positive and zero rain observations are assimilated effectively. Observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs are conducted using the Simplified Parametrisations, primitivE-Equation DYnamics (SPEEDY model, a simplified but realistic general circulation model. When uniformly and globally distributed observations of precipitation are assimilated in addition to rawinsonde observations, both the analyses and the medium-range forecasts of all model variables, including precipitation, are significantly improved as compared to only assimilating rawinsonde observations. The effect of precipitation assimilation on the analyses is retained on the medium-range forecasts and is larger in the Southern Hemisphere (SH than that in the Northern Hemisphere (NH because the NH analyses are already made more accurate by the denser rawinsonde stations. These improvements are much reduced when only the moisture field is modified by the precipitation observations. Both the Gaussian transformation and

Precipitation Reconstruction (PREC)

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The PREC data set is an analysis of monthly precipitation constructed on a 2.5(o)lat/lon grid over the global for the period from 1948 to the present. The land...

Fluctuations in the large-scale atmospheric circulation and ocean conditions associated with the dominant modes of wintertime precipitation variability for the contiguous United States

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mitchell, T.P.; Blier, W.

1994-01-01

The historical Climatic Division record of monthly- and seasonal-mean wintertime precipitation totals are analyzed to document the dominant patterns of precipitation variability for the contiguous United States. The analysis technique employed is the Rotated Principal Component analysis. Time series for the leading patterns are related to global sea-surface temperatures (SSTs), and to gridded surface and upper-air analyses for the Northern Hemisphere

Identification of relationships between climate indices and long-term precipitation in South Korea using ensemble empirical mode decomposition

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Taereem; Shin, Ju-Young; Kim, Sunghun; Heo, Jun-Haeng

2018-02-01

Climate indices characterize climate systems and may identify important indicators for long-term precipitation, which are driven by climate interactions in atmosphere-ocean circulation. In this study, we investigated the climate indices that are effective indicators of long-term precipitation in South Korea, and examined their relationships based on statistical methods. Monthly total precipitation was collected from a total of 60 meteorological stations, and they were decomposed by ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) to identify the inherent oscillating patterns or cycles. Cross-correlation analysis and stepwise variable selection were employed to select the significant climate indices at each station. The climate indices that affect the monthly precipitation in South Korea were identified based on the selection frequencies of the selected indices at all stations. The NINO12 indices with four- and ten-month lags and AMO index with no lag were identified as indicators of monthly precipitation in South Korea. Moreover, they indicate meaningful physical information (e.g. periodic oscillations and long-term trend) inherent in the monthly precipitation. The NINO12 indices with four- and ten- month lags was a strong indicator representing periodic oscillations in monthly precipitation. In addition, the long-term trend of the monthly precipitation could be explained by the AMO index. A multiple linear regression model was constructed to investigate the influences of the identified climate indices on the prediction of monthly precipitation. Three identified climate indices successfully explained the monthly precipitation in the winter dry season. Compared to the monthly precipitation in coastal areas, the monthly precipitation in inland areas showed stronger correlation to the identified climate indices.

Recent advances in precipitation-bias correction and application

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

无

2009-01-01

Significant progresses have been made in recent years in precipitation data analyses at regional to global scales. This paper re-views and synthesizes recent advances in precipitation-bias corrections and applications in many countries and over the cold re-gions. The main objective of this review is to identify and examine gaps in regional and national precipitation-error analyses. This paper also discusses and recommends future research needs and directions. More effort and coordination are necessary in the determinations of precipitation biases on large regions across national borders. It is important to emphasize that bias cor-rections of precipitation measurements affect both water budget and energy balance calculations, particularly over the cold regions.

On the effects of wildfires on precipitation in Southern Africa

Science.gov (United States)

De Sales, Fernando; Okin, Gregory S.; Xue, Yongkang; Dintwe, Kebonye

2018-03-01

This study investigates the impact of wildfire on the climate of Southern Africa. Moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer derived burned area fraction data was implemented in a set of simulations to assess primarily the role of wildfire-induced surface changes on monthly precipitation. Two post-fire scenarios are examined namely non-recovering and recovering vegetation scenarios. In the former, burned vegetation fraction remains burned until the end of the simulations, whereas in the latter it is allowed to regrow following a recovery period. Control simulations revealed that the model can dependably capture the monthly precipitation and surface temperature averages in Southern Africa thus providing a reasonable basis against which to assess the impacts of wildfire. In general, both wildfire scenarios have a negative impact on springtime precipitation. September and October were the only months with statistically significant precipitation changes. During these months, precipitation in the region decreases by approximately 13 and 9% in the non-recovering vegetation scenario, and by about 10 and 6% in the recovering vegetation wildfire scenario, respectively. The primary cause of precipitation deficit is the decrease in evapotranspiration resulting from a reduction in surface net radiation. Areas impacted by the precipitation reduction includes the Luanda, Kinshasa, and Brazzaville metropolitan areas, The Angolan Highlands, which are the source of the Okavango Rive, and the Okavango Delta region. This study suggests that a probable intensification in wildfire frequency and extent resulting from projected population increase and global warming in Southern Africa could potentially exacerbate the impacts of wildfires in the region's seasonal precipitation.

Precipitation in a lead calcium tin anode

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Perez-Gonzalez, Francisco A., E-mail: fco.aurelio@inbox.com [Facultad de Ingenieria Mecanica y Electrica, Universidad Autonoma de Nuevo Leon (Mexico); Centro de Innovacion, Investigacion y Desarrollo en Ingenieria y Tecnologia, Universidad Autonoma de Nuevo Leon (Mexico); Camurri, Carlos G., E-mail: ccamurri@udec.cl [Departamento de Ingenieria de Materiales, Universidad de Concepcion (Chile); Carrasco, Claudia A., E-mail: ccarrascoc@udec.cl [Departamento de Ingenieria de Materiales, Universidad de Concepcion (Chile); Colas, Rafael, E-mail: rafael.colas@uanl.edu.mx [Facultad de Ingenieria Mecanica y Electrica, Universidad Autonoma de Nuevo Leon (Mexico); Centro de Innovacion, Investigacion y Desarrollo en Ingenieria y Tecnologia, Universidad Autonoma de Nuevo Leon (Mexico)

2012-02-15

Samples from a hot rolled sheet of a tin and calcium bearing lead alloy were solution heat treated at 300 Degree-Sign C and cooled down to room temperature at different rates; these samples were left at room temperature to study natural precipitation of CaSn{sub 3} particles. The samples were aged for 45 days before analysing their microstructure, which was carried out in a scanning electron microscope using secondary and backscattered electron detectors. Selected X-ray spectra analyses were conducted to verify the nature of the precipitates. Images were taken at different magnifications in both modes of observation to locate the precipitates and record their position within the images and calculate the distance between them. Differential scanning calorimeter analyses were conducted on selected samples. It was found that the mechanical properties of the material correlate with the minimum average distance between precipitates, which is related to the average cooling rate from solution heat treatment. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The distance between precipitates in a lead alloy is recorded. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The relationship between the distance and the cooling rate is established. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer It is found that the strengthening of the alloy depends on the distance between precipitates.

Reassessing the role of temperature in precipitation oxygen isotopes across the eastern and central United States through weekly precipitation-day data

Science.gov (United States)

Akers, Pete D.; Welker, Jeffrey M.; Brook, George A.

2017-09-01

Air temperature is correlated with precipitation oxygen isotope (δ18Oprcp) variability for much of the eastern and central United States, but the nature of this δ18Oprcp-temperature relationship is largely based on data coarsely aggregated at a monthly resolution. We constructed a database of 6177 weeks of isotope and precipitation-day air temperature data from 25 sites to determine how more precise data change our understanding of this classic relationship. Because the δ18Oprcp-temperature relationship is not perfectly linear, trends in the regression residuals suggest the influence of additional environmental factors such as moisture recycling and extratropical cyclone interactions. Additionally, the temporal relationships between δ18Oprcp and temperature observed in the weekly data at individual sites can explain broader spatial patterns observed across the study region. For 20 of 25 sites, the δ18Oprcp-temperature relationship slope is higher for colder precipitation than for warmer precipitation. Accordingly, northern and western sites with relatively more cold precipitation events have steeper overall relationships with higher slope values than southeastern sites that have more warm precipitation events. Although the magnitude of δ18Oprcp variability increases to the north and west, the fraction of δ18Oprcp variability explained by temperature increases due to wider annual temperature ranges, producing stronger relationships in these regions. When our δ18Oprcp-temperature data are grouped by month, we observe significant variations in the relationship from month to month. This argues against a principal causative role for temperature and suggests the existence of an alternative environmental control on δ18Oprcp values that simply covaries seasonally with temperature.

Climate change and precipitation: Detecting changes Climate change and precipitation: Detecting changes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Van Boxel, John H

2001-01-01

Precipitation is one of the most, if not the most important climate parameter In most studies on climate change the emphasis is on temperature and sea level rise. Often too little attention is given to precipitation. For a large part this is due to the large spatial en temporal variability of precipitation, which makes the detection of changes difficult. This paper describes methods to detect changes in precipitation. In order to arrive at statistically significant changes one must use long time series and spatial averages containing the information from several stations. In the Netherlands the average yearly precipitation increased by 11% during the 20th century .In the temperate latitudes on the Northern Hemisphere (40-60QN) the average increase was about 7% over the 20th century and the globally averaged precipitation increased by about 3%. During the 20th century 38% of the land surface of the earth became wetter, 42% experienced little change (less than 5% change) and 20% became dryer. More important than the average precipitation is the occurrence of extremes. In the Netherlands there is a tendency to more extreme precipitations, whereas the occurrence of relatively dry months has not changed. Also in many other countries increases in heavy precipitation events are observed. All climate models predict a further increase of mean global precipitation if the carbon dioxide concentration doubles. Nevertheless some areas get dryer, others have little change and consequently there are also areas where the increase is much more than the global average. On a regional scale however there are large differences between the models. Climate models do not yet provide adequate information on changes in extreme precipitations

Variation in the isotopic content of precipitation with altitude

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stowhas, L.; Silva, C.; Moser, H.; Stichler, W.

1975-03-01

Monthly precipitation and single storms have been collected during three years at 12 stations along a W-E profile in Chile, going from Juan Fernandez Islands to Valparaiso, Santiago and Infiernillo in the Andes, and analysed for their deuterium content. The deltaD values are correlated with the altitude of the station, the mean temperature - which also largely depends on the altitude - and the distance from the sea. The correlation parameters show however important variations from year to year and even more from month to month. For instance, in the stretch Santiago (520 m a.s.l.) - La Parva (2680 m) the mean isotopic gradient with altitude were: -1.84 deltaD per mil/100 m in 1970, -1.09 in 1971 and -2.0 in 1972. The low value observed in 1971 could be a consequence of the peculiar weather characteristics of this unusually dry year. In the stretch from the coast to Santiago the trend of the isotopic composition of precipitation is more complicated, because the so-called continental effect is superimposed to the altitude effect. The deuterium content variations have been also determined in snowpack profiles at La Parva station. The results show that snow melting occurs slowly at the bottom during the whole winter, at the expenses of the heat stored during summer in the soil. The melting of the surface snow layers only starts at the end of the winter and then proceeds very fast

Relations between precipitation, groundwater withdrawals, and changes in hydrologic conditions at selected monitoring sites in Volusia County, Florida, 1995--2010

Science.gov (United States)

Murray, Louis C.

2012-01-01

A study to examine the influences of climatic and anthropogenic stressors on groundwater levels, lake stages, and surface-water discharge at selected sites in northern Volusia County, Florida, was conducted in 2009 by the U.S. Geological Survey. Water-level data collected at 20 monitoring sites (17 groundwater and 3 lake sites) in the vicinity of a wetland area were analyzed with multiple linear regression to examine the relative influences of precipitation and groundwater withdrawals on changes in groundwater levels and lake stage. Analyses were conducted across varying periods of record between 1995 and 2010 and included the effects of groundwater withdrawals aggregated from municipal water-supply wells located within 12 miles of the project sites. Surface-water discharge data at the U.S. Geological Survey Tiger Bay canal site were analyzed for changes in flow between 1978 and 2001. As expected, water-level changes in monitoring wells located closer to areas of concentrated groundwater withdrawals were more highly correlated with withdrawals than were water-level changes measured in wells further removed from municipal well fields. Similarly, water-level changes in wells tapping the Upper Floridan aquifer, the source of municipal supply, were more highly correlated with groundwater withdrawals than were water-level changes in wells tapping the shallower surficial aquifer system. Water-level changes predicted by the regression models over precipitation-averaged periods of record were underestimated for observations having large positive monthly changes (generally greater than 1.0 foot). Such observations are associated with high precipitation and were identified as points in the regression analyses that produced large standardized residuals and/or observations of high influence. Thus, regression models produced by multiple linear regression analyses may have better predictive capability in wetland environments when applied to periods of average or below average

The tritium content of precipitation and surface water in Austria in 1984

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rank, D.; Rajner, V.; Lust, G.

1985-01-01

This report includes weighted monthly 3 H-means from 23 precipitation sampling stations, 3 H-concentrations of daily precipitation samples from the station Wien-Arsenal, and 3 H-concentrations of monthly samples from 17 surface water sampling stations. (Author)

Are satellite products good proxies for gauge precipitation over Singapore?

Science.gov (United States)

Hur, Jina; Raghavan, Srivatsan V.; Nguyen, Ngoc Son; Liong, Shie-Yui

2018-05-01

The uncertainties in two high-resolution satellite precipitation products (TRMM 3B42 v7.0 and GSMaP v5.222) were investigated by comparing them against rain gauge observations over Singapore on sub-daily scales. The satellite-borne precipitation products are assessed in terms of seasonal, monthly and daily variations, the diurnal cycle, and extreme precipitation over a 10-year period (2000-2010). Results indicate that the uncertainties in extreme precipitation is higher in GSMaP than in TRMM, possibly due to the issues such as satellite merging algorithm, the finer spatio-temporal scale of high intensity precipitation, and the swath time of satellite. Such discrepancies between satellite-borne and gauge-based precipitations at sub-daily scale can possibly lead to distorting analysis of precipitation characteristics and/or application model results. Overall, both satellite products are unable to capture the observed extremes and provide a good agreement with observations only at coarse time scales. Also, the satellite products agree well on the late afternoon maximum and heavier rainfall of gauge-based data in winter season when the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) is located over Singapore. However, they do not reproduce the gauge-observed diurnal cycle in summer. The disagreement in summer could be attributed to the dominant satellite overpass time (about 14:00 SGT) later than the diurnal peak time (about 09:00 SGT) of gauge precipitation. From the analyses of extreme precipitation indices, it is inferred that both satellite datasets tend to overestimate the light rain and frequency but underestimate high intensity precipitation and the length of dry spells. This study on quantification of their uncertainty is useful in many aspects especially that these satellite products stand scrutiny over places where there are no good ground data to be compared against. This has serious implications on climate studies as in model evaluations and in particular, climate

Radar-Derived Quantitative Precipitation Estimation Based on Precipitation Classification

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lili Yang

2016-01-01

Full Text Available A method for improving radar-derived quantitative precipitation estimation is proposed. Tropical vertical profiles of reflectivity (VPRs are first determined from multiple VPRs. Upon identifying a tropical VPR, the event can be further classified as either tropical-stratiform or tropical-convective rainfall by a fuzzy logic (FL algorithm. Based on the precipitation-type fields, the reflectivity values are converted into rainfall rate using a Z-R relationship. In order to evaluate the performance of this rainfall classification scheme, three experiments were conducted using three months of data and two study cases. In Experiment I, the Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D default Z-R relationship was applied. In Experiment II, the precipitation regime was separated into convective and stratiform rainfall using the FL algorithm, and corresponding Z-R relationships were used. In Experiment III, the precipitation regime was separated into convective, stratiform, and tropical rainfall, and the corresponding Z-R relationships were applied. The results show that the rainfall rates obtained from all three experiments match closely with the gauge observations, although Experiment II could solve the underestimation, when compared to Experiment I. Experiment III significantly reduced this underestimation and generated the most accurate radar estimates of rain rate among the three experiments.

Altered Precipitation and Flow Patterns in the Dunajec River Basin

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mariola Kędra

2017-01-01

Full Text Available This study analyzes changes in long-term patterns of precipitation and river flow, as well as changes in their variability over the most recent 60 years (1956–2015. The study area is situated in the mountain basin of the Dunajec River, encompassing streams draining the Tatra Mountains in southern Poland. The focus of the study was to evaluate how regional warming translates into precipitation changes in the studied mountain region, and how changes in climate affect sub-regional hydrology. Monthly time series of precipitation measured at several sites were compared for two 30-year periods (1986–2015 versus 1956–1985. The significance of the difference between the periods in question was evaluated by means of the Wilcoxon signed rank test with the Bonferroni correction. The identified shifts in precipitation for 6 months are statistically significant and largely consistent with the revealed changes in river flow patterns. Moreover, significant differences in precipitation variability were noted in the study area, resulting in a significant decrease in the repeatability of precipitation over the most recent 30 years (1986–2015. Changes in the variability of the river flow studied were less visible in this particular mountain region (while significant for two months; however, the overall repeatability of river flow decreased significantly at the same rate as for precipitation.

Evaluation of Satellite and Model Precipitation Products Over Turkey

Science.gov (United States)

Yilmaz, M. T.; Amjad, M.

2017-12-01

Satellite-based remote sensing, gauge stations, and models are the three major platforms to acquire precipitation dataset. Among them satellites and models have the advantage of retrieving spatially and temporally continuous and consistent datasets, while the uncertainty estimates of these retrievals are often required for many hydrological studies to understand the source and the magnitude of the uncertainty in hydrological response parameters. In this study, satellite and model precipitation data products are validated over various temporal scales (daily, 3-daily, 7-daily, 10-daily and monthly) using in-situ measured precipitation observations from a network of 733 gauges from all over the Turkey. Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) 3B42 version 7 and European Center of Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) model estimates (daily, 3-daily, 7-daily and 10-daily accumulated forecast) are used in this study. Retrievals are evaluated for their mean and standard deviation and their accuracies are evaluated via bias, root mean square error, error standard deviation and correlation coefficient statistics. Intensity vs frequency analysis and some contingency table statistics like percent correct, probability of detection, false alarm ratio and critical success index are determined using daily time-series. Both ECMWF forecasts and TRMM observations, on average, overestimate the precipitation compared to gauge estimates; wet biases are 10.26 mm/month and 8.65 mm/month, respectively for ECMWF and TRMM. RMSE values of ECMWF forecasts and TRMM estimates are 39.69 mm/month and 41.55 mm/month, respectively. Monthly correlations between Gauges-ECMWF, Gauges-TRMM and ECMWF-TRMM are 0.76, 0.73 and 0.81, respectively. The model and the satellite error statistics are further compared against the gauges error statistics based on inverse distance weighting (IWD) analysis. Both the model and satellite data have less IWD errors (14

Observed precipitation trends in the Yangtze river catchment from 1951 to 2002

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

SUBuda; JIANGTong; SHIYafeng; StefanBECKER; MracoGEMMER

2004-01-01

The monthly, seasonal, and annual precipitation trends in the Yangtze river catchment have been detected through analysis of 51 meteorological stations' data between 1950-2002 provided by National Meteorological Administration. Results reveal that: 1) Summer precipitation in the Yangtze river catchment shows significant increasing tendency. The Poyanghu lake basin, Dongtinghu lake basin and Taihu lake basin in the middle and lower reaches are the places showing significant positive trends. Summer precipitation in the middle and lower reaches experienced an abrupt change in the year 1992; 2) The monthly precipitation in months just adjoining to summer shows decreasing tendency in the Yangtze river catchment. The upper and middle reaches in Jialingjiang river basin and Hanshui river basin are the places showing significant negative trends; 3) Extreme precipitation events show an increasing tendency in most places, especially in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze river catchment.

Effects of undetected data quality issues on climatological analyses

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. Hunziker

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Systematic data quality issues may occur at various stages of the data generation process. They may affect large fractions of observational datasets and remain largely undetected with standard data quality control. This study investigates the effects of such undetected data quality issues on the results of climatological analyses. For this purpose, we quality controlled daily observations of manned weather stations from the Central Andean area with a standard and an enhanced approach. The climate variables analysed are minimum and maximum temperature and precipitation. About 40 % of the observations are inappropriate for the calculation of monthly temperature means and precipitation sums due to data quality issues. These quality problems undetected with the standard quality control approach strongly affect climatological analyses, since they reduce the correlation coefficients of station pairs, deteriorate the performance of data homogenization methods, increase the spread of individual station trends, and significantly bias regional temperature trends. Our findings indicate that undetected data quality issues are included in important and frequently used observational datasets and hence may affect a high number of climatological studies. It is of utmost importance to apply comprehensive and adequate data quality control approaches on manned weather station records in order to avoid biased results and large uncertainties.

The tritium content of precipitation and surface water in Austria in 1986

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rank, D.; Rajner, V.; Lust, G.

1987-01-01

This report includes weighted monthly 3 H-means for 23 precipitation sampling stations, 3 H-concentrations of daily precipitation samples from the station Wien-Arsenal, and 3 H-concentrations of monthly samples from 17 surface water sampling stations. 2 refs., 3 tabs., 18 figs. (Author)

Variations and Trends in Global and Regional Precipitation Based on the 22-year GPCP (Global Precipitation Climatology Project) and Three-year TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) Data Sets

Science.gov (United States)

Adler, R.; Curtis, S.; Huffman, G.; Bolvin, D.; Nelkin, E.

2001-05-01

This paper gives an overview of the analysis of global precipitation over the last few decades and the impact of the new TRMM precipitation observations. The 20+ year, monthly, globally complete precipitation analysis of the World Climate Research Program's (WCRP/GEWEX) Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) is used to study global and regional variations and trends and is compared to the much shorter TRMM(Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) tropical data set. The GPCP data set shows no significant trend in global precipitation over the twenty years, unlike the positive trend in global surface temperatures over the past century. The global trend analysis must be interpreted carefully, however, because the inhomogeneity of the data set makes detecting a small signal very difficult, especially over this relatively short period. The relation of global (and tropical) total precipitation and ENSO events is quantified with no significant signal when land and ocean are combined. Identifying regional trends in precipitation may be more practical. From 1979 to 2000 the tropics have pattern of regional rainfall trends that has an ENSO-like pattern with features of both the El Nino and La Nina. This feature is related to a possible trend in the frequency of ENSO events (either El Nino or La Nina) over the past 20 years. Monthly anomalies of precipitation are related to ENSO variations with clear signals extending into middle and high latitudes of both hemispheres. The El Nino and La Nina mean anomalies are near mirror images of each other and when combined produce an ENSO signal with significant spatial continuity over large distances. A number of the features are shown to extend into high latitudes. Positive anomalies extend in the Southern Hemisphere (S.H.) from the Pacific southeastward across Chile and Argentina into the south Atlantic Ocean. In the Northern Hemisphere (N.H.) the counterpart feature extends across the southern U.S. and Atlantic Ocean into Europe

The Climate Hazards group InfraRed Precipitation (CHIRP) with Stations (CHIRPS): Development and Validation

Science.gov (United States)

Peterson, P.; Funk, C. C.; Husak, G. J.; Pedreros, D. H.; Landsfeld, M.; Verdin, J. P.; Shukla, S.

2013-12-01

climate observations: the monthly Global Historical Climate Network version 2 archive, the daily Global Historical Climate Network archive, the Global Summary of the Day dataset (GSOD), and the daily Global Telecommunication System (GTS) archive provided by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC). A screening procedure was developed to flag and remove potential false zeros from the daily data, since these potentially spurious data can artificially suppress rainfall totals. Validation: Our validation focused on precipitation products with global coverage, long periods of record and near real-time availability: CHIRP, CHIRPS, CPC-Unified, CFS Reanalysis and ECMWF datasets were compared to GPCC and high quality datasets from Uganda, Colombia and the Sahel. The CHIRP and CHIRPS are shown to have low systematic errors (bias) and low mean absolute errors. Analyses in Uganda, Colombia and the Sahel indicate that the ECMWF, CPC-Unified and CFS-Reanalysis have large inhomogeneities, making them unsuitable for drought monitoring. The CHIRPS performance appears quite similar to research quality products like the GPCC and GPCP, but with higher resolution and lower latency.

Climatology of the northern hemisphere stratosphere derived from Berlin analyses. Pt. 1. Monthly means

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pawson, S.; Labitzke, K.; Lenschow, R.; Naujokat, B.; Rajewski, B.; Wiesner, M.; Wohlfart, R.C.

1993-01-01

This work presents a climatology of the northern hemisphere lower and middle stratosphere derived from daily radiosonde observations subjectively analysed in the Stratospheric Research Group of the 'Meteorologisches Institut der Freien Universitaet Berlin'. Previous climatologies from these data were presented by Labitzke (1972), van Loon et al. (1972), and by Labitzke and Goretzki (1982). Although some more recent climatological fields have been presented in several works by members of the group, no complete atlas has been compiled for some time. The work is intended to serve as a reference for people interested in the stratosphere and, particularly, the climate analysis and modelling communities, which require contemporary analyses of the available data in order to interpret their products. In this first part of the climatological atlas, monthly mean data are presented. (orig./KW)

Climatology of the northern hemisphere stratosphere derived from Berlin analyses. Pt. 1. Monthly means

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pawson, S; Labitzke, K; Lenschow, R; Naujokat, B; Rajewski, B; Wiesner, M; Wohlfart, R C

1933-01-01

This work presents a climatology of the northern hemisphere lower and middle stratosphere derived from daily radiosonde observations subjectively analysed in the Stratospheric Research Group of the 'Meteorologisches Institut der Freien Universitaet Berlin'. Previous climatologies from these data were presented by Labitzke (1972), van Loon et al. (1972), and by Labitzke and Goretzki (1982). Although some more recent climatological fields have been presented in several works by members of the group, no complete atlas has been compiled for some time. The work is intended to serve as a reference for people interested in the stratosphere and, particularly, the climate analysis and modelling communities, which require contemporary analyses of the available data in order to interpret their products. In this first part of the climatological atlas, monthly mean data are presented. (orig./KW)

Spatio-Temporal Analysis of the Accuracy of Tropical Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis 3B42 Precipitation Data in Mid-High Latitudes of China

Science.gov (United States)

Cai, Yancong; Jin, Changjie; Wang, Anzhi; Guan, Dexin; Wu, Jiabing; Yuan, Fenghui; Xu, Leilei

2015-01-01

Satellite-based precipitation data have contributed greatly to quantitatively forecasting precipitation, and provides a potential alternative source for precipitation data allowing researchers to better understand patterns of precipitation over ungauged basins. However, the absence of calibration satellite data creates considerable uncertainties for The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) 3B42 product over high latitude areas beyond the TRMM satellites latitude band (38°NS). This study attempts to statistically assess TMPA V7 data over the region beyond 40°NS using data obtained from numerous weather stations in 1998–2012. Comparative analysis at three timescales (daily, monthly and annual scale) indicates that adoption of a monthly adjustment significantly improved correlation at a larger timescale increasing from 0.63 to 0.95; TMPA data always exhibits a slight overestimation that is most serious at a daily scale (the absolute bias is 103.54%). Moreover, the performance of TMPA data varies across all seasons. Generally, TMPA data performs best in summer, but worst in winter, which is likely to be associated with the effects of snow/ice-covered surfaces and shortcomings of precipitation retrieval algorithms. Temporal and spatial analysis of accuracy indices suggest that the performance of TMPA data has gradually improved and has benefited from upgrades; the data are more reliable in humid areas than in arid regions. Special attention should be paid to its application in arid areas and in winter with poor scores of accuracy indices. Also, it is clear that the calibration can significantly improve precipitation estimates, the overestimation by TMPA in TRMM-covered area is about a third as much as that in no-TRMM area for monthly and annual precipitation. The systematic evaluation of TMPA over mid-high latitudes provides a broader understanding of satellite-based precipitation estimates, and these data are

Spatio-temporal analysis of the accuracy of tropical multisatellite precipitation analysis 3B42 precipitation data in mid-high latitudes of China.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yancong Cai

Full Text Available Satellite-based precipitation data have contributed greatly to quantitatively forecasting precipitation, and provides a potential alternative source for precipitation data allowing researchers to better understand patterns of precipitation over ungauged basins. However, the absence of calibration satellite data creates considerable uncertainties for The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA 3B42 product over high latitude areas beyond the TRMM satellites latitude band (38°NS. This study attempts to statistically assess TMPA V7 data over the region beyond 40°NS using data obtained from numerous weather stations in 1998-2012. Comparative analysis at three timescales (daily, monthly and annual scale indicates that adoption of a monthly adjustment significantly improved correlation at a larger timescale increasing from 0.63 to 0.95; TMPA data always exhibits a slight overestimation that is most serious at a daily scale (the absolute bias is 103.54%. Moreover, the performance of TMPA data varies across all seasons. Generally, TMPA data performs best in summer, but worst in winter, which is likely to be associated with the effects of snow/ice-covered surfaces and shortcomings of precipitation retrieval algorithms. Temporal and spatial analysis of accuracy indices suggest that the performance of TMPA data has gradually improved and has benefited from upgrades; the data are more reliable in humid areas than in arid regions. Special attention should be paid to its application in arid areas and in winter with poor scores of accuracy indices. Also, it is clear that the calibration can significantly improve precipitation estimates, the overestimation by TMPA in TRMM-covered area is about a third as much as that in no-TRMM area for monthly and annual precipitation. The systematic evaluation of TMPA over mid-high latitudes provides a broader understanding of satellite-based precipitation estimates, and these

Substantial proportion of global streamflow less than three months old

Science.gov (United States)

Jasechko, Scott; Kirchner, James W.; Welker, Jeffrey M.; McDonnell, Jeffrey J.

2016-02-01

Biogeochemical cycles, contaminant transport and chemical weathering are regulated by the speed at which precipitation travels through landscapes and reaches streams. Streamflow is a mixture of young and old precipitation, but the global proportions of these young and old components are not known. Here we analyse seasonal cycles of oxygen isotope ratios in rain, snow and streamflow compiled from 254 watersheds around the world, and calculate the fraction of streamflow that is derived from precipitation that fell within the past two or three months. This young streamflow accounts for about a third of global river discharge, and comprises at least 5% of discharge in about 90% of the catchments we investigated. We conclude that, although typical catchments have mean transit times of years or even decades, they nonetheless can rapidly transmit substantial fractions of soluble contaminant inputs to streams. Young streamflow is less prevalent in steeper landscapes, which suggests they are characterized by deeper vertical infiltration. Because young streamflow is derived from less than 0.1% of global groundwater storage, we conclude that this thin veneer of aquifer storage will have a disproportionate influence on stream water quality.

Homogenization of long instrumental temperature and precipitation series over the Spanish Northern Coast

Science.gov (United States)

Sigro, J.; Brunet, M.; Aguilar, E.; Stoll, H.; Jimenez, M.

2009-04-01

The Spanish-funded research project Rapid Climate Changes in the Iberian Peninsula (IP) Based on Proxy Calibration, Long Term Instrumental Series and High Resolution Analyses of Terrestrial and Marine Records (CALIBRE: ref. CGL2006-13327-C04/CLI) has as main objective to analyse climate dynamics during periods of rapid climate change by means of developing high-resolution paleoclimate proxy records from marine and terrestrial (lakes and caves) deposits over the IP and calibrating them with long-term and high-quality instrumental climate time series. Under CALIBRE, the coordinated project Developing and Enhancing a Climate Instrumental Dataset for Calibrating Climate Proxy Data and Analysing Low-Frequency Climate Variability over the Iberian Peninsula (CLICAL: CGL2006-13327-C04-03/CLI) is devoted to the development of homogenised climate records and sub-regional time series which can be confidently used in the calibration of the lacustrine, marine and speleothem time series generated under CALIBRE. Here we present the procedures followed in order to homogenise a dataset of maximum and minimum temperature and precipitation data on a monthly basis over the Spanish northern coast. The dataset is composed of thirty (twenty) precipitation (temperature) long monthly records. The data are quality controlled following the procedures recommended by Aguilar et al. (2003) and tested for homogeneity and adjusted by following the approach adopted by Brunet et al. (2008). Sub-regional time series of precipitation, maximum and minimum temperatures for the period 1853-2007 have been generated by averaging monthly anomalies and then adding back the base-period mean, according to the method of Jones and Hulme (1996). Also, a method to adjust the variance bias present in regional time series associated over time with varying sample size has been applied (Osborn et al., 1997). The results of this homogenisation exercise and the development of the associated sub-regional time series

Seasonal Cycle in German Daily Precipitation Extremes

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Madlen Fischer

2018-01-01

Full Text Available The seasonal cycle of extreme precipitation in Germany is investigated by fitting statistical models to monthly maxima of daily precipitation sums for 2,865 rain gauges. The basis is a non-stationary generalized extreme value (GEV distribution variation of location and scale parameters. The negative log-likelihood serves as the forecast error for a cross validation to select adequate orders of the harmonic functions for each station. For nearly all gauges considered, the seasonal model is more appropriate to estimate return levels on a monthly scale than a stationary GEV used for individual months. The 100-year return-levels show the influence of cyclones in the western, and convective events in the eastern part of Germany. In addition to resolving the seasonality, we use a simulation study to show that annual return levels can be estimated more precisely from a monthly-resolved seasonal model than from a stationary model based on annual maxima.

Probabilistic model fitting for spatio-temporal variability studies of precipitation: the Sara-Brut system - a case study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dorado Delgado, Jennifer; Burbano Criollo, Juan Carlos; Molina Tabares, Jose Manuel; Carvajal Escobar, Yesid; Aristizabal, Hector Fabio

2006-01-01

In this study, space and time variability of monthly and annual rainfall was analyzed for the downstream influence zone of a Colombian supply-regulation reservoir, Sara-Brut, located on the Cauca valley department. Monthly precipitation data from 18 gauge stations and for a 29-year record (1975-2003) were used. These data were processed by means of time series completion, consistency analyses and sample statistics computations. Theoretical probabilistic distribution models such as Gumbel, normal, lognormal and wake by, and other empirical distributions such as Weibull and Landwehr were applied in order to fit the historical precipitation data set. The fit standard error (FSE) was used to test the goodness of fit of the theoretical distribution models and to choose the best of this probabilistic function. The wake by approach showed the best goodness of fit in 89% of the total gauges taken into account. Time variability was analyzed by means of wake by estimated values of monthly and annual precipitation associated with return periods of 1,052, 1,25, 2, 10, 20 and 50 years. Precipitation space variability is presents by means of ArcGis v8.3 and using krigging as interpolation method. In general terms the results obtained from this study show significant distribution variability in precipitation over the whole area, and particularity, the formation of dry and humid nucleus over the northeastern strip and microclimates at the southwestern and central zone of the study area were observed, depending on the season of year. The mentioned distribution pattern is likely caused by the influence of pacific wind streams, which come from the Andean western mountain range. It is expected that the results from this work be helpful for future planning and hydrologic project design

Climatological Modeling of Monthly Air Temperature and Precipitation in Egypt through GIS Techniques

Science.gov (United States)

El Kenawy, A.

2009-09-01

This paper describes a method for modeling and mapping four climatic variables (maximum temperature, minimum temperature, mean temperature and total precipitation) in Egypt using a multiple regression approach implemented in a GIS environment. In this model, a set of variables including latitude, longitude, elevation within a distance of 5, 10 and 15 km, slope, aspect, distance to the Mediterranean Sea, distance to the Red Sea, distance to the Nile, ratio between land and water masses within a radius of 5, 10, 15 km, the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), the Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI), the Normalized Difference Temperature Index (NDTI) and reflectance are included as independent variables. These variables were integrated as raster layers in MiraMon software at a spatial resolution of 1 km. Climatic variables were considered as dependent variables and averaged from quality controlled and homogenized 39 series distributing across the entire country during the period of (1957-2006). For each climatic variable, digital and objective maps were finally obtained using the multiple regression coefficients at monthly, seasonal and annual timescale. The accuracy of these maps were assessed through cross-validation between predicted and observed values using a set of statistics including coefficient of determination (R2), root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), mean bias Error (MBE) and D Willmott statistic. These maps are valuable in the sense of spatial resolution as well as the number of observatories involved in the current analysis.

Constraining precipitation amount and distribution over cold regions using GRACE

Science.gov (United States)

Behrangi, A.; Reager, J. T., II; Gardner, A. S.; Fisher, J.

2017-12-01

Current quantitative knowledge on the amount and distribution of precipitation in high-elevation and high latitude regions is limited due to instrumental and retrieval shortcomings. Here we demonstrate how that satellite gravimetry (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment, GRACE) can be used to provide an independent estimate of monthly accumulated precipitation using mass balance. Results showed that the GRACE-based precipitation estimate has the highest agreement with most of the commonly used precipitation products in summer, but it deviates from them in cold months, when the other products are expected to have larger error. We also observed that as near surface temperature decreases products tend to underestimate accumulated precipitation retrieved from GRACE. The analysis performed using various products such as GPCP, GPCC, TRMM, and gridded station data over vast regions in high latitudes and two large endorheic basins in High Mountain Asia. Based on the analysis over High Mountain Asia it was found that most of the products capture about or less than 50% of the total precipitation estimated using GRACE in winter. Overall, GPCP showed better agreement with GRACE estimate than other products. Yet on average GRACE showed 30% more annual precipitation than GPCP in the study basin.

Inorganic nitrogen in precipitation and atmospheric sediments

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Matheson, D H

1951-01-01

In an investigation covering 18 months, daily determinations were made of the inorganic nitrogen contained in precipitation and atmospheric sediments collected at Hamilton, Ont. The nitrogen fall for the whole period averaged 5.8 lb. N per acre per year. Sixty-one per cent of the total nitrogen was collected on 25% of the days when precipitation occurred. The balance, occurring on days without precipitation, is attributable solely to the sedimentation of dust. Ammonia nitrogen averaged 56% of the total, but the proportion for individual days varied widely.

Analysis of Precipitation and Drought Data in Hexi Corridor, Northwest China

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Xinyang Yu

2017-05-01

Full Text Available Precipitation data from nine meteorological stations in arid oases of Hexi Corridor, northwest China during 1970–2012 were analyzed to detect trends in precipitation and Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI at multiple time scales using linear regression, Mann–Kendall and Spearman’s Rho tests. The results found that annual precipitation in the observed stations was rare and fell into the arid region category according to the aridity index analysis. The monthly analysis of precipitation found that three stations showed significant increasing trends in different months, while on the annual level, only Yongchang station had a significant increasing trend. The analysis of SPI-12 found three main drought intervals, i.e., 1984–1987, 1991–1992 and 2008–2011, and an extremely dry year among the stations was recorded in 1986; the southeast and middle portions of the study area are expected to have more precipitation and less dry conditions.

Increased Kawasaki Disease Incidence Associated With Higher Precipitation and Lower Temperatures, Japan, 1991-2004.

Science.gov (United States)

Abrams, Joseph Y; Blase, Jennifer L; Belay, Ermias D; Uehara, Ritei; Maddox, Ryan A; Schonberger, Lawrence B; Nakamura, Yosikazu

2018-06-01

Kawasaki disease (KD) is an acute febrile vasculitis, which primarily affects children. The etiology of KD is unknown; while certain characteristics of the disease suggest an infectious origin, genetic or environmental factors may also be important. Seasonal patterns of KD incidence are well documented, but it is unclear whether these patterns are caused by changes in climate or by other unknown seasonal effects. The relationship between KD incidence and deviations from expected temperature and precipitation were analyzed using KD incidence data from Japanese nationwide epidemiologic surveys (1991-2004) and climate data from 136 weather stations of the Japan Meteorological Agency. Seven separate Poisson-distributed generalized linear regression models were run to examine the effects of temperature and precipitation on KD incidence in the same month as KD onset and the previous 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6 months, controlling for geography as well as seasonal and long-term trends in KD incidence. KD incidence was negatively associated with temperature in the previous 2, 3, 4 and 5 months and positively associated with precipitation in the previous 1 and 2 months. The model that best predicted variations in KD incidence used climate data from the previous 2 months. An increase in total monthly precipitation by 100 mm was associated with increased KD incidence (rate ratio [RR] 1.012, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.005-1.019), and an increase of monthly mean temperature by 1°C was associated with decreased KD incidence (RR 0.984, 95% CI: 0.978-0.990). KD incidence was significantly affected by temperature and precipitation in previous months independent of other unknown seasonal factors. Climate data from the previous 2 months best predicted the variations in KD incidence. Although fairly minor, the effect of temperature and precipitation independent of season may provide additional clues to the etiology of KD.

Harmonic analysis of the precipitation in Greece

Science.gov (United States)

Nastos, P. T.; Zerefos, C. S.

2009-04-01

Greece is a country with a big variety of climates due to its geographical position, to the many mountain ranges and also to the multifarious and long coastline. The mountainous volumes are of such orientation that influences the distribution of the precipitation, having as a result, Western Greece to present great differentiations from Central and Eastern Greece. The application of harmonic analysis to the annual variability of precipitation is the goal of this study, so that the components, which compose the annual variability, be elicited. For this purpose, the mean monthly precipitation data from 30 meteorological stations of National Meteorological Service were used for the time period 1950-2000. The initial target is to reduce the number of variables and to detect structure in the relationships between variables. The most commonly used technique for this purpose is the application of Factor Analysis to a table having as columns the meteorological stations-variables and rows the monthly mean precipitation, so that 2 main factors were calculated, which explain the 98% of total variability of precipitation in Greece. Factor 1, representing the so-called uniform field and interpreting the most of the total variance, refers in fact to the Mediterranean depressions, affecting mainly the West of Greece and also the East Aegean and the Asia Minor coasts. In the process, the Fourier Analysis was applied to the factor scores extracted from the Factor Analysis, so that 2 harmonic components are resulted, which explain above the 98% of the total variability of each main factor, and are due to different synoptic and thermodynamic processes associated with Greece's precipitation construction. Finally, the calculation of the time of occurrence of the maximum precipitation, for each harmonic component of each one of the two main factors, gives the spatial distribution of appearance of the maximum precipitation in the Hellenic region.

Bio-precipitation of uranium by two bacterial isolates recovered from extreme environments as estimated by potentiometric titration, TEM and X-ray absorption spectroscopic analyses.

Science.gov (United States)

Merroun, Mohamed L; Nedelkova, Marta; Ojeda, Jesus J; Reitz, Thomas; Fernández, Margarita López; Arias, José M; Romero-González, María; Selenska-Pobell, Sonja

2011-12-15

This work describes the mechanisms of uranium biomineralization at acidic conditions by Bacillus sphaericus JG-7B and Sphingomonas sp. S15-S1 both recovered from extreme environments. The U-bacterial interaction experiments were performed at low pH values (2.0-4.5) where the uranium aqueous speciation is dominated by highly mobile uranyl ions. X-ray absorption spectroscopy (XAS) showed that the cells of the studied strains precipitated uranium at pH 3.0 and 4.5 as a uranium phosphate mineral phase belonging to the meta-autunite group. Transmission electron microscopic (TEM) analyses showed strain-specific localization of the uranium precipitates. In the case of B. sphaericus JG-7B, the U(VI) precipitate was bound to the cell wall. Whereas for Sphingomonas sp. S15-S1, the U(VI) precipitates were observed both on the cell surface and intracellularly. The observed U(VI) biomineralization was associated with the activity of indigenous acid phosphatase detected at these pH values in the absence of an organic phosphate substrate. The biomineralization of uranium was not observed at pH 2.0, and U(VI) formed complexes with organophosphate ligands from the cells. This study increases the number of bacterial strains that have been demonstrated to precipitate uranium phosphates at acidic conditions via the activity of acid phosphatase. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Gridded Mean Monthly Temperature and Precipitation Data for Alaska, British Columbia, and Yukon

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — To aid in better understanding the temperature and precipitation data of the spatially variable climate of Alaska and Northwest Canada, this dataset was created via...

Climatology and Interannual Variability of Quasi-Global Intense Precipitation Using Satellite Observations

Science.gov (United States)

Ricko, Martina; Adler, Robert F.; Huffman, George J.

2016-01-01

Climatology and variations of recent mean and intense precipitation over a near-global (50 deg. S 50 deg. N) domain on a monthly and annual time scale are analyzed. Data used to derive daily precipitation to examine the effects of spatial and temporal coverage of intense precipitation are from the current Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) 3B42 version 7 precipitation product, with high spatial and temporal resolution during 1998 - 2013. Intense precipitation is defined by several different parameters, such as a 95th percentile threshold of daily precipitation, a mean precipitation that exceeds that percentile, or a fixed threshold of daily precipitation value [e.g., 25 and 50 mm day(exp -1)]. All parameters are used to identify the main characteristics of spatial and temporal variation of intense precipitation. High correlations between examined parameters are observed, especially between climatological monthly mean precipitation and intense precipitation, over both tropical land and ocean. Among the various parameters examined, the one best characterizing intense rainfall is a fraction of daily precipitation Great than or equal to 25 mm day(exp. -1), defined as a ratio between the intense precipitation above the used threshold and mean precipitation. Regions that experience an increase in mean precipitation likely experience a similar increase in intense precipitation, especially during the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. Improved knowledge of this intense precipitation regime and its strong connection to mean precipitation given by the fraction parameter can be used for monitoring of intense rainfall and its intensity on a global to regional scale.

CHARACTERISTICS OF MEI-YU PRECIPITATION AND SVD ANALYSIS OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE YANGTZE-HUAIHE RIVERS VALLEYS AND THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IN THE NORTHERN PACIFIC OCEAN

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

MAO Wen-shu; WANG Qian-qian; PENG Jun; LI Yong-hua

2008-01-01

Based on the precipitation data of Meiyu at 37 stations in the valleys of Yangtze and Huaihe Rivers from 1954 to 2001, the temporal-spatial characteristics of Meiyu precipitation and their relationships with the sea surface temperature in northern Pacific are investigated using such methods as harmonic analysis, empirical orthogonal function (EOF), composite analysis and singular value decomposition (SVD). The results show that the temporal evolution and spatial distribution of Meiyu precipitation are not homogeneous in the Yangtze-Huaihe Rivers basins but with prominent inter-annual and inter-decadal variabilities. The key region between the anomalies of Meiyu precipitation and the monthly sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) lies in the west wind drift of North Pacific, which influences the precipitation anomaly of Meiyu precipitation over a key period of time from January to March in the same year. When the SST in the North Pacific west wind drift is warmer (colder) than average during these months, Meiyu precipitation anomalously increases (decreases) in the concurrent year. Results of SVD are consistent with those of composite analysis which pass the significance test of Monte-Carlo at 0.05.

Global Precipitation Responses to Land Hydrological Processes

Science.gov (United States)

Lo, M.; Famiglietti, J. S.

2012-12-01

Several studies have established that soil moisture increases after adding a groundwater component in land surface models due to the additional supply of subsurface water. However, impacts of groundwater on the spatial-temporal variability of precipitation have received little attention. Through the coupled groundwater-land-atmosphere model (NCAR Community Atmosphere Model + Community Land Model) simulations, this study explores how groundwater representation in the model alters the precipitation spatiotemporal distributions. Results indicate that the effect of groundwater on the amount of precipitation is not globally homogeneous. Lower tropospheric water vapor increases due to the presence of groundwater in the model. The increased water vapor destabilizes the atmosphere and enhances the vertical upward velocity and precipitation in tropical convective regions. Precipitation, therefore, is inhibited in the descending branch of convection. As a result, an asymmetric dipole is produced over tropical land regions along the equator during the summer. This is analogous to the "rich-get-richer" mechanism proposed by previous studies. Moreover, groundwater also increased short-term (seasonal) and long-term (interannual) memory of precipitation for some regions with suitable groundwater table depth and found to be a function of water table depth. Based on the spatial distributions of the one-month-lag autocorrelation coefficients as well as Hurst coefficients, air-land interaction can occur from short (several months) to long (several years) time scales. This study indicates the importance of land hydrological processes in the climate system and the necessity of including the subsurface processes in the global climate models.

An appraisal of precipitation distribution in the high-altitude catchments of the Indus basin.

Science.gov (United States)

Dahri, Zakir Hussain; Ludwig, Fulco; Moors, Eddy; Ahmad, Bashir; Khan, Asif; Kabat, Pavel

2016-04-01

Scarcity of in-situ observations coupled with high orographic influences has prevented a comprehensive assessment of precipitation distribution in the high-altitude catchments of Indus basin. Available data are generally fragmented and scattered with different organizations and mostly cover the valleys. Here, we combine most of the available station data with the indirect precipitation estimates at the accumulation zones of major glaciers to analyse altitudinal dependency of precipitation in the high-altitude Indus basin. The available observations signified the importance of orography in each sub-hydrological basin but could not infer an accurate distribution of precipitation with altitude. We used Kriging with External Drift (KED) interpolation scheme with elevation as a predictor to appraise spatiotemporal distribution of mean monthly, seasonal and annual precipitation for the period of 1998-2012. The KED-based annual precipitation estimates are verified by the corresponding basin-wide observed specific runoffs, which show good agreement. In contrast to earlier studies, our estimates reveal substantially higher precipitation in most of the sub-basins indicating two distinct rainfall maxima; 1st along southern and lower most slopes of Chenab, Jhelum, Indus main and Swat basins, and 2nd around north-west corner of Shyok basin in the central Karakoram. The study demonstrated that the selected gridded precipitation products covering this region are prone to significant errors. In terms of quantitative estimates, ERA-Interim is relatively close to the observations followed by WFDEI and TRMM, while APHRODITE gives highly underestimated precipitation estimates in the study area. Basin-wide seasonal and annual correction factors introduced for each gridded dataset can be useful for lumped hydrological modelling studies, while the estimated precipitation distribution can serve as a basis for bias correction of any gridded precipitation products for the study area

Beyond Precipitation: Physiographic Gradients Dictate the Relative Importance of Environmental Drivers on Savanna Vegetation

Science.gov (United States)

Campo-Bescós, Miguel A.; Muñoz-Carpena, Rafael; Kaplan, David A.; Southworth, Jane; Zhu, Likai; Waylen, Peter R.

2013-01-01

Background Understanding the drivers of large-scale vegetation change is critical to managing landscapes and key to predicting how projected climate and land use changes will affect regional vegetation patterns. This study aimed to improve our understanding of the role, magnitude and spatial distribution of the key environmental factors driving vegetation change in southern African savanna, and how they vary across physiographic gradients. Methodology/Principal Findings We applied Dynamic Factor Analysis (DFA), a multivariate times series dimension reduction technique to ten years of monthly remote sensing data (MODIS-derived normalized difference vegetation index, NDVI) and a suite of environmental covariates: precipitation, mean and maximum temperature, soil moisture, relative humidity, fire and potential evapotranspiration. Monthly NDVI was described by cyclic seasonal variation with distinct spatiotemporal patterns in different physiographic regions. Results support existing work emphasizing the importance of precipitation, soil moisture and fire on NDVI, but also reveal overlooked effects of temperature and evapotranspiration, particularly in regions with higher mean annual precipitation. Critically, spatial distributions of the weights of environmental covariates point to a transition in the importance of precipitation and soil moisture (strongest in grass-dominated regions with precipitation950 mm). Conclusions/Significance We quantified the combined spatiotemporal effects of an available suite of environmental drivers on NDVI across a large and diverse savanna region. The analysis supports known drivers of savanna vegetation but also uncovers important roles of temperature and evapotranspiration. Results highlight the utility of applying the DFA approach to remote sensing products for regional analyses of landscape change in the context of global environmental change. With the dramatic increase in global change research, this methodology augurs well for

Monthly Climatic Data for the World

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Publication of monthly mean temperature, pressure, precipitation, vapor pressure, and hours of sunshine for approximately 2,000 surface data collection stations...

Development and evaluation of climatologically-downscaled AFWA AGRMET precipitation products over the continental U.S.

Science.gov (United States)

Garcia, M.; Peters-Lidard, C. D.; Eylander, J. B.; Daly, C.; Gibson, W.; Tian, Y.; Zeng, J.; Kato, H.

2008-05-01

products over the U.S. using LIS-based methods for downscaling, both with and without climatological factors, are evaluated against high-resolution monthly analyses using the PRISM knowledge- based method (Daly et al. 2002) over a 4-year period. It is demonstrated that the incorporation of climatological information in a downscaling procedure can significantly enhance the accuracy, and potential utility, of AFWA precipitation products for customer applications, especially over mountainous terrain as in the western U.S.

Spatial and temporal variability of precipitation and drought in Portugal

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

D. S. Martins

2012-05-01

Full Text Available The spatial variability of precipitation and drought are investigated for Portugal using monthly precipitation from 74 stations and minimum and maximum temperature from 27 stations, covering the common period of 1941–2006. Seasonal precipitation and the corresponding percentages in the year, as well as the precipitation concentration index (PCI, was computed for all 74 stations and then used as an input matrix for an R-mode principal component analysis to identify the precipitation patterns. The standardized precipitation index at 3 and 12 month time scales were computed for all stations, whereas the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI and the modified PDSI for Mediterranean conditions (MedPDSI were computed for the stations with temperature data. The spatial patterns of drought over Portugal were identified by applying the S-mode principal component analysis coupled with varimax rotation to the drought indices matrices. The result revealed two distinct sub-regions in the country relative to both precipitation regimes and drought variability. The analysis of time variability of the PC scores of all drought indices allowed verifying that there is no linear trend indicating drought aggravation or decrease. In addition, the analysis shows that results for SPI-3, SPI-12, PDSI and MedPDSI are coherent among them.

The assessment of Global Precipitation Measurement estimates over the Indian subcontinent

Science.gov (United States)

Murali Krishna, U. V.; Das, Subrata Kumar; Deshpande, Sachin M.; Doiphode, S. L.; Pandithurai, G.

2017-08-01

Accurate and real-time precipitation estimation is a challenging task for current and future spaceborne measurements, which is essential to understand the global hydrological cycle. Recently, the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) satellites were launched as a next-generation rainfall mission for observing the global precipitation characteristics. The purpose of the GPM is to enhance the spatiotemporal resolution of global precipitation. The main objective of the present study is to assess the rainfall products from the GPM, especially the Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for the GPM (IMERG) data by comparing with the ground-based observations. The multitemporal scale evaluations of rainfall involving subdaily, diurnal, monthly, and seasonal scales were performed over the Indian subcontinent. The comparison shows that the IMERG performed better than the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM)-3B42, although both rainfall products underestimated the observed rainfall compared to the ground-based measurements. The analyses also reveal that the TRMM-3B42 and IMERG data sets are able to represent the large-scale monsoon rainfall spatial features but are having region-specific biases. The IMERG shows significant improvement in low rainfall estimates compared to the TRMM-3B42 for selected regions. In the spatial distribution, the IMERG shows higher rain rates compared to the TRMM-3B42, due to its enhanced spatial and temporal resolutions. Apart from this, the characteristics of raindrop size distribution (DSD) obtained from the GPM mission dual-frequency precipitation radar is assessed over the complex mountain terrain site in the Western Ghats, India, using the DSD measured by a Joss-Waldvogel disdrometer.

Spatio-temporal interpolation of precipitation during monsoon periods in Pakistan

Science.gov (United States)

Hussain, Ijaz; Spöck, Gunter; Pilz, Jürgen; Yu, Hwa-Lung

2010-08-01

Spatio-temporal estimation of precipitation over a region is essential to the modeling of hydrologic processes for water resources management. The changes of magnitude and space-time heterogeneity of rainfall observations make space-time estimation of precipitation a challenging task. In this paper we propose a Box-Cox transformed hierarchical Bayesian multivariate spatio-temporal interpolation method for the skewed response variable. The proposed method is applied to estimate space-time monthly precipitation in the monsoon periods during 1974-2000, and 27-year monthly average precipitation data are obtained from 51 stations in Pakistan. The results of transformed hierarchical Bayesian multivariate spatio-temporal interpolation are compared to those of non-transformed hierarchical Bayesian interpolation by using cross-validation. The software developed by [11] is used for Bayesian non-stationary multivariate space-time interpolation. It is observed that the transformed hierarchical Bayesian method provides more accuracy than the non-transformed hierarchical Bayesian method.

Precipitation Indices Low Countries

Science.gov (United States)

van Engelen, A. F. V.; Ynsen, F.; Buisman, J.; van der Schrier, G.

2009-09-01

Since 1995, KNMI published a series of books(1), presenting an annual reconstruction of weather and climate in the Low Countries, covering the period AD 763-present, or roughly, the last millennium. The reconstructions are based on the interpretation of documentary sources predominantly and comparison with other proxies and instrumental observations. The series also comprises a number of classifications. Amongst them annual classifications for winter and summer temperature and for winter and summer dryness-wetness. The classification of temperature have been reworked into peer reviewed (2) series (AD 1000-present) of seasonal temperatures and temperature indices, the so called LCT (Low Countries Temperature) series, now incorporated in the Millennium databases. Recently we started a study to convert the dryness-wetness classifications into a series of precipitation; the so called LCP (Low Countries Precipitation) series. A brief outline is given here of the applied methodology and preliminary results. The WMO definition for meteorological drought has been followed being that a period is called wet respectively dry when the amount of precipitation is considerable more respectively less than usual (normal). To gain a more quantitative insight for four locations, geographically spread over the Low Countries area (De Bilt, Vlissingen, Maastricht and Uccle), we analysed the statistics of daily precipitation series, covering the period 1900-present. This brought us to the following definition, valid for the Low Countries: A period is considered as (very) dry respectively (very) wet if over a continuous period of at least 60 days (~two months) cq 90 days (~three months) on at least two out of the four locations 50% less resp. 50% more than the normal amount for the location (based on the 1961-1990 normal period) has been measured. This results into the following classification into five drought classes hat could be applied to non instrumental observations: Very wet period

Examine Precipitation Extremes in Terms of Storm Properties

Science.gov (United States)

Jiang, P.; Yu, Z.; Chen, L.; Gautam, M. R.; Acharya, K.

2017-12-01

The increasing potential of the extreme precipitation is of significant societal concern. Changes in precipitation extremes have been mostly examined using extreme precipitation indices or Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) analyses, which often fail to reveal the characteristics of an integrated precipitation event. In this study, we will examine the precipitation extremes in terms of storm properties including storm duration, storm intensity, total storm precipitation, and within storm pattern. Single storm event will be identified and storm properties will be determined based on the hourly precipitation time series in the selected locations in southwest United States. Three types of extreme precipitation event will be recognized using the criteria as (1) longest storm duration; (2) Highest storm intensity; and (3) largest total precipitation over a storm. The trend and variation of extreme precipitation events will be discussed for each criterion. Based on the comparisons of the characteristics of extreme precipitation events identified using different criteria, we will provide guidelines for choosing proper criteria for extreme precipitation analysis in specific location.

pH and its frequency distribution patterns of Acid Precipitation in Japan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kitamura, Moritsugu; Katou, Takunori; Sekiguchi, Kyoichi

1991-01-01

The pH data was collected at the 29 stations in Phase-I study of Acid Precipitation Survey over Japan by Japan Environment Agency in terms of frequency distribution patterns. This study was undertaken from April 1984 to March 1988, which was the first survey of acid precipitation over Japan with identical sampling procedures and subsequent chemical analyses. While the annual mean pH at each station ranged from 4.4 to 5.5, the monthly mean varied more widely, from 4.0 to 7.1. Its frequency distribution pattern was obtained for each station, and further grouped into four classes: class I; a mode at the rank of pH 4.5∼4.9, class II; bimodes above and below this pH region, class III; a mode at a higher pH region, class IV; a mode at a lower pH region. The bimodal pattern was suggestive of precipitation with and without incorporation of significant amounts of basic aerosol of anthropogenic origin during descent of rain droplet. The patterns of the stations were also classified on a basis of summer-winter difference into another four classes. Winter pH values were appreciably lower than summer pHs in western parts of Japan and on Japan Sea coast, we attribute the winter pH to probable contribution of acidic pollutants transported by strong winter monsoon from Eurasian Continent. At most stations in northern and eastern Japan, the pH was higher in winter months reflecting more incorporation of basic materials, e.g., NH 4 + and Ca 2+ . (author)

Bio-precipitation of uranium by two bacterial isolates recovered from extreme environments as estimated by potentiometric titration, TEM and X-ray absorption spectroscopic analyses

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Merroun, Mohamed L., E-mail: merroun@ugr.es [Institute of Radiochemistry, Helmholtz Centre Dresden-Rossendorf, Dresden (Germany); Departamento de Microbiologia, Universidad de Granada, Campus Fuentenueva s/n 18071, Granada (Spain); Nedelkova, Marta [Institute of Radiochemistry, Helmholtz Centre Dresden-Rossendorf, Dresden (Germany); Ojeda, Jesus J. [Cell-Mineral Interface Research Programme, Kroto Research Institute, University of Sheffield, Broad Lane, Sheffield S3 7HQ (United Kingdom); Experimental Techniques Centre, Brunel University, Uxbridge, Middlesex UB8 3PH (United Kingdom); Reitz, Thomas [Institute of Radiochemistry, Helmholtz Centre Dresden-Rossendorf, Dresden (Germany); Fernandez, Margarita Lopez; Arias, Jose M. [Departamento de Microbiologia, Universidad de Granada, Campus Fuentenueva s/n 18071, Granada (Spain); Romero-Gonzalez, Maria [Cell-Mineral Interface Research Programme, Kroto Research Institute, University of Sheffield, Broad Lane, Sheffield S3 7HQ (United Kingdom); Selenska-Pobell, Sonja [Institute of Radiochemistry, Helmholtz Centre Dresden-Rossendorf, Dresden (Germany)

2011-12-15

Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Precipitation of uranium as U phosphates by natural bacterial isolates. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The uranium biomineralization involves the activity of acidic phosphatase. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Uranium bioremediation could be achieved via the biomineralization of U(VI) in phosphate minerals. - Abstract: This work describes the mechanisms of uranium biomineralization at acidic conditions by Bacillus sphaericus JG-7B and Sphingomonas sp. S15-S1 both recovered from extreme environments. The U-bacterial interaction experiments were performed at low pH values (2.0-4.5) where the uranium aqueous speciation is dominated by highly mobile uranyl ions. X-ray absorption spectroscopy (XAS) showed that the cells of the studied strains precipitated uranium at pH 3.0 and 4.5 as a uranium phosphate mineral phase belonging to the meta-autunite group. Transmission electron microscopic (TEM) analyses showed strain-specific localization of the uranium precipitates. In the case of B. sphaericus JG-7B, the U(VI) precipitate was bound to the cell wall. Whereas for Sphingomonas sp. S15-S1, the U(VI) precipitates were observed both on the cell surface and intracellularly. The observed U(VI) biomineralization was associated with the activity of indigenous acid phosphatase detected at these pH values in the absence of an organic phosphate substrate. The biomineralization of uranium was not observed at pH 2.0, and U(VI) formed complexes with organophosphate ligands from the cells. This study increases the number of bacterial strains that have been demonstrated to precipitate uranium phosphates at acidic conditions via the activity of acid phosphatase.

On the spatio-temporal and energy-dependent response of riometer absorption to electron precipitation: drift-time and conjunction analyses in realistic electric and magnetic fields

Science.gov (United States)

Kellerman, Adam; Shprits, Yuri; Makarevich, Roman; Donovan, Eric; Zhu, Hui

2017-04-01

Riometers are low-cost passive radiowave instruments located in both northern and southern hemispheres that capable of operating during quiet and disturbed conditions. Many instruments have been operating continuously for multiple solar cycles, making them a useful tool for long-term statistical studies and for real-time analysis and forecasting of space weather. Here we present recent and new analyses of the relationship between the riometer-measured cosmic noise absorption and electron precipitation into the D-region and lower E-region ionosphere. We utilize two techniques: a drift-time analysis in realistic electric and magnetic field models, where a particle is traced from one location to another, and the energy determined by the time delay between similar observations; and a conjunction analysis, where we directly compare precipitated fluxes from THEMIS and Van Allen Probes with the riometer absorption. In both cases we present a statistical analysis of the response of riometer absorption to electron precipitation as a function of MLAT, MLT, and geomagnetic conditions.

Precipitation reconstruction using ring-width chronology

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

ring samples of two adjacent homogeneous sites, has been used to reconstruct precipitation for the non-monsoon months (previous year October to concurrent May) back to AD 1171. This provides the first record of hydrological conditions for the ...

Quantitative precipitation climatology over the Himalayas by using Precipitation Radar on Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and a dense network of rain-gauges

Science.gov (United States)

Yatagai, A.

2010-09-01

Quantified grid observation data at a reasonable resolution are indispensable for environmental monitoring as well as for predicting future change of mountain environment. However quantified datasets have not been available for the Himalayan region. Hence we evaluate climatological precipitation data around the Himalayas by using Precipitation Radar (PR) data acquired by the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) over 10 years of observation. To validate and adjust these patterns, we used a dense network of rain gauges collected by the Asian Precipitation—Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation of Water Resources (APHRODITE Water Resources) project (http://www.chikyu.ac.jp/precip/). We used more than 2600 stations which have more than 10-year monthly precipitation over the Himalayan region (75E-105E, 20-36N) including country data of Nepal, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Pakistan, India, Myanmar, and China. The region we studied is so topographically complicated that horizontal patterns are not uniform. Therefore, every path data of PR2A25 (near-surface rain) was averaged in a 0.05-degree grid and a 10-year monthly average was computed (hereafter we call PR). On the other hand, for rain-gauge, we first computed cell averages if each 0.05-degree grid cell has 10 years observation or more. Here we refer to the 0.05-degree rain-gauge climatology data as RG data. On the basis of comparisons between the RG and PR composite values, we defined the parameters of the regressions to correct the monthly climatology value based on the rain gauge observations. Compared with the RG, the PR systematically underestimated precipitation by 28-38% in summer (July-September). Significant correlation between TRMM/PR and rain-gauge data was found for all months, but the correlation is relatively low in winter. The relationship is investigated for different elevation zones, and the PR was found to underestimate RG data in most zones, except for certain zones in

African aerosol and large-scale precipitation variability over West Africa

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Huang Jingfeng; Zhang Chidong; Prospero, Joseph M

2009-01-01

We investigated the large-scale connection between African aerosol and precipitation in the West African Monsoon (WAM) region using 8-year (2000-2007) monthly and daily Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) aerosol products (aerosol optical depth, fine mode fraction) and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) precipitation and rain type. These high-quality data further confirmed our previous results that the large-scale link between aerosol and precipitation in this region undergoes distinct seasonal and spatial variability. Previously detected suppression of precipitation during months of high aerosol concentration occurs in both convective and stratiform rain, but not systematically in shallow rain. This suggests the suppression of deep convection due to the aerosol. Based on the seasonal cycle of dust and smoke and their geographical distribution, our data suggest that both dust (coarse mode aerosol) and smoke (fine mode aerosol) contribute to the precipitation suppression. However, the dust effect is evident over the Gulf of Guinea while the smoke effect is evident over both land and ocean. A back trajectory analysis further demonstrates that the precipitation reduction is statistically linked to the upwind aerosol concentration. This study suggests that African aerosol outbreaks in the WAM region can influence precipitation in the local monsoon system which has direct societal impact on the local community. It calls for more systematic investigations to determine the modulating mechanisms using both observational and modeling approaches.

Precipitation data in a mountainous catchment in Honduras: quality assessment and spatiotemporal characteristics

Science.gov (United States)

Westerberg, I.; Walther, A.; Guerrero, J.-L.; Coello, Z.; Halldin, S.; Xu, C.-Y.; Chen, D.; Lundin, L.-C.

2010-08-01

An accurate description of temporal and spatial precipitation variability in Central America is important for local farming, water supply and flood management. Data quality problems and lack of consistent precipitation data impede hydrometeorological analysis in the 7,500 km2 Choluteca River basin in central Honduras, encompassing the capital Tegucigalpa. We used precipitation data from 60 daily and 13 monthly stations in 1913-2006 from five local authorities and NOAA's Global Historical Climatology Network. Quality control routines were developed to tackle the specific data quality problems. The quality-controlled data were characterised spatially and temporally, and compared with regional and larger-scale studies. Two gap-filling methods for daily data and three interpolation methods for monthly and mean annual precipitation were compared. The coefficient-of-correlation-weighting method provided the best results for gap-filling and the universal kriging method for spatial interpolation. In-homogeneity in the time series was the main quality problem, and 22% of the daily precipitation data were too poor to be used. Spatial autocorrelation for monthly precipitation was low during the dry season, and correlation increased markedly when data were temporally aggregated from a daily time scale to 4-5 days. The analysis manifested the high spatial and temporal variability caused by the diverse precipitation-generating mechanisms and the need for an improved monitoring network.

Meat quality of lamb frozen stored up to 21 months: instrumental analyses on thawed meat during display.

Science.gov (United States)

Muela, E; Monge, P; Sañudo, C; Campo, M M; Beltrán, J A

2015-04-01

The study analysed the effect of frozen storage duration (FSD: 0, 1, 9, 15 or 21 months) and display duration (DD: 0-24 h post-slaughter-, 3 and 6 days) in modified atmosphere packaging (MAP) on lamb quality. pH, colour, lipid oxidation, water holding capacity and instrumental texture were performed on Longissimus muscle in displayed fresh and thawed meat. FSD affected all the variables showing lower differences between fresh and 1 month storage than among them and longer FSD. Only cooking losses were not affected by DD in thawed meats. It was observed a general decrease in quality (lower redness and water holding capacity; higher yellowness and lipid oxidation) as FSD or DD increased and only texture was improved over DD being thawed meat more tender. In conclusion, lamb storage at -18°C should not exceed 1 month if thawed meat would be later displayed in MAP while meat would have an acceptable quality up to 21 months without subsequent display. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Joint distribution of temperature and precipitation in the Mediterranean, using the Copula method

Science.gov (United States)

Lazoglou, Georgia; Anagnostopoulou, Christina

2018-03-01

This study analyses the temperature and precipitation dependence among stations in the Mediterranean. The first station group is located in the eastern Mediterranean (EM) and includes two stations, Athens and Thessaloniki, while the western (WM) one includes Malaga and Barcelona. The data was organized in two time periods, the hot-dry period and the cold-wet one, composed of 5 months, respectively. The analysis is based on a new statistical technique in climatology: the Copula method. Firstly, the calculation of the Kendall tau correlation index showed that temperatures among stations are dependant during both time periods whereas precipitation presents dependency only between the stations located in EM or WM and only during the cold-wet period. Accordingly, the marginal distributions were calculated for each studied station, as they are further used by the copula method. Finally, several copula families, both Archimedean and Elliptical, were tested in order to choose the most appropriate one to model the relation of the studied data sets. Consequently, this study achieves to model the dependence of the main climate parameters (temperature and precipitation) with the Copula method. The Frank copula was identified as the best family to describe the joint distribution of temperature, for the majority of station groups. For precipitation, the best copula families are BB1 and Survival Gumbel. Using the probability distribution diagrams, the probability of a combination of temperature and precipitation values between stations is estimated.

HOMPRA Europe - A gridded precipitation data set from European homogenized time series

Science.gov (United States)

Rustemeier, Elke; Kapala, Alice; Meyer-Christoffer, Anja; Finger, Peter; Schneider, Udo; Venema, Victor; Ziese, Markus; Simmer, Clemens; Becker, Andreas

2017-04-01

Reliable monitoring data are essential for robust analyses of climate variability and, in particular, long-term trends. In this regard, a gridded, homogenized data set of monthly precipitation totals - HOMPRA Europe (HOMogenized PRecipitation Analysis of European in-situ data)- is presented. The data base consists of 5373 homogenized monthly time series, a carefully selected subset held by the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC). The chosen series cover the period 1951-2005 and contain less than 10% missing values. Due to the large number of data, an automatic algorithm had to be developed for the homogenization of these precipitation series. In principal, the algorithm is based on three steps: * Selection of overlapping station networks in the same precipitation regime, based on rank correlation and Ward's method of minimal variance. Since the underlying time series should be as homogeneous as possible, the station selection is carried out by deterministic first derivation in order to reduce artificial influences. * The natural variability and trends were temporally removed by means of highly correlated neighboring time series to detect artificial break-points in the annual totals. This ensures that only artificial changes can be detected. The method is based on the algorithm of Caussinus and Mestre (2004). * In the last step, the detected breaks are corrected monthly by means of a multiple linear regression (Mestre, 2003). Due to the automation of the homogenization, the validation of the algorithm is essential. Therefore, the method was tested on artificial data sets. Additionally the sensitivity of the method was tested by varying the neighborhood series. If available in digitized form, the station history was also used to search for systematic errors in the jump detection. Finally, the actual HOMPRA Europe product is produced by interpolation of the homogenized series onto a 1° grid using one of the interpolation schems operationally at GPCC

Few multiyear precipitation-reduction experiments find a shift in the productivity-precipitation relationship.

Science.gov (United States)

Estiarte, Marc; Vicca, Sara; Peñuelas, Josep; Bahn, Michael; Beier, Claus; Emmett, Bridget A; Fay, Philip A; Hanson, Paul J; Hasibeder, Roland; Kigel, Jaime; Kröel-Dulay, Gyorgy; Larsen, Klaus Steenberg; Lellei-Kovács, Eszter; Limousin, Jean-Marc; Ogaya, Romà; Ourcival, Jean-Marc; Reinsch, Sabine; Sala, Osvaldo E; Schmidt, Inger Kappel; Sternberg, Marcelo; Tielbörger, Katja; Tietema, Albert; Janssens, Ivan A

2016-07-01

Well-defined productivity-precipitation relationships of ecosystems are needed as benchmarks for the validation of land models used for future projections. The productivity-precipitation relationship may be studied in two ways: the spatial approach relates differences in productivity to those in precipitation among sites along a precipitation gradient (the spatial fit, with a steeper slope); the temporal approach relates interannual productivity changes to variation in precipitation within sites (the temporal fits, with flatter slopes). Precipitation-reduction experiments in natural ecosystems represent a complement to the fits, because they can reduce precipitation below the natural range and are thus well suited to study potential effects of climate drying. Here, we analyse the effects of dry treatments in eleven multiyear precipitation-manipulation experiments, focusing on changes in the temporal fit. We expected that structural changes in the dry treatments would occur in some experiments, thereby reducing the intercept of the temporal fit and displacing the productivity-precipitation relationship downward the spatial fit. The majority of experiments (72%) showed that dry treatments did not alter the temporal fit. This implies that current temporal fits are to be preferred over the spatial fit to benchmark land-model projections of productivity under future climate within the precipitation ranges covered by the experiments. Moreover, in two experiments, the intercept of the temporal fit unexpectedly increased due to mechanisms that reduced either water loss or nutrient loss. The expected decrease of the intercept was observed in only one experiment, and only when distinguishing between the late and the early phases of the experiment. This implies that we currently do not know at which precipitation-reduction level or at which experimental duration structural changes will start to alter ecosystem productivity. Our study highlights the need for experiments with

Stochastic model for simulating Souris River Basin precipitation, evapotranspiration, and natural streamflow

Science.gov (United States)

Kolars, Kelsey A.; Vecchia, Aldo V.; Ryberg, Karen R.

2016-02-24

The Souris River Basin is a 61,000-square-kilometer basin in the Provinces of Saskatchewan and Manitoba and the State of North Dakota. In May and June of 2011, record-setting rains were seen in the headwater areas of the basin. Emergency spillways of major reservoirs were discharging at full or nearly full capacity, and extensive flooding was seen in numerous downstream communities. To determine the probability of future extreme floods and droughts, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the North Dakota State Water Commission, developed a stochastic model for simulating Souris River Basin precipitation, evapotranspiration, and natural (unregulated) streamflow. Simulations from the model can be used in future studies to simulate regulated streamflow, design levees, and other structures; and to complete economic cost/benefit analyses.Long-term climatic variability was analyzed using tree-ring chronologies to hindcast precipitation to the early 1700s and compare recent wet and dry conditions to earlier extreme conditions. The extended precipitation record was consistent with findings from the Devils Lake and Red River of the North Basins (southeast of the Souris River Basin), supporting the idea that regional climatic patterns for many centuries have consisted of alternating wet and dry climate states.A stochastic climate simulation model for precipitation, temperature, and potential evapotranspiration for the Souris River Basin was developed using recorded meteorological data and extended precipitation records provided through tree-ring analysis. A significant climate transition was seen around1970, with 1912–69 representing a dry climate state and 1970–2011 representing a wet climate state. Although there were some distinct subpatterns within the basin, the predominant differences between the two states were higher spring through early fall precipitation and higher spring potential evapotranspiration for the wet compared to the dry state.A water

Interdecadal variability of winter precipitation in Southeast China

OpenAIRE

Zhang, L.; Zhu, X.; Fraedrich, K.; Sielmann, F.; Zhi, X.

2014-01-01

Interdecadal variability of observed winter precipitation in Southeast China (1961–2010) is characterized by the first empirical orthogonal function of the three-monthly Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) subjected to a 9-year running mean. For interdecadal time scales the dominating spatial modes represent monopole features involving the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. Dynamic composite analysis (based on NCEP/NCAR reanalyzes) reveals the followin...

Two-dimensional and three-dimensional analyses of sigma precipitates and porosity in a superaustenitic stainless steel

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fonda, Richard Warren; Lauridsen Mejdal, Erik; Ludwig, W.

2007-01-01

X-ray micro-tomography revealed not only the true three-dimensional (3-D) distribution, interconnectivity, and morphology of coarse sigma precipitates in an AL-6XN superaustenitic stainless steel, but also the presence of an internal void network associated with these precipitates. The voids were...

Study of variations of stable isotopes in precipitation: case of Antananarivo

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Randrianarivola, M.

2014-01-01

The isotopic signature of precipitation is the input signal in any study of hydrological cycle. The scientific objective of this work is to better understand the isotopic variations in precipitation and identify their processes. We used the network of measurement GNIP (Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation) in which data is acquired by the International Atomic Energy Agency through isotope hydrology laboratory at INSTN-Madagascar. Analyzes stable isotopes ( 18O and 2 H), were performed at a monthly time step. We were able to confirm the relative importance of different mechanisms governing the isotopic composition of precipitation. The spatial distribution of abundance ratios of Antananarivo rain is in fact dictated by the temperature which follow indirectly from the effects of altitude and seasonal variations. At the monthly scale, local meteoric water line δ 2 H versus δ 18 O shows the specificity of Antananarivo (deuterium excess of 17.5‰ ). Additionally, seasonal variations in precipitation is related to the temperature such that in summer (d=15‰) and winter (d=18‰) [fr

High-resolution spatio-temporal analyses of drought episodes in the western Mediterranean basin (Spanish mainland, Iberian Peninsula)

Science.gov (United States)

González-Hidalgo, J. C.; Vicente-Serrano, S. M.; Peña-Angulo, D.; Salinas, C.; Tomas-Burguera, M.; Beguería, S.

2018-04-01

The purpose of this research was to identify major drought events on the Spanish mainland between 1961 and 2014 by means of two drought indices, and analyze the spatial propagation of drought conditions. The indices applied were the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and the standardized evaporation precipitation index (SPEI). The first was calculated as standardized anomalies of precipitation at various temporal intervals, while the second examined the climatic balance normalized at monthly scale, incorporating the relationship between precipitation and the atmospheric water demand. The daily meteorological data from Spanish Meteorological Archives (AEMet) were used in performing the analyses. Within the framework of the DESEMON project, original data were converted into a high spatial resolution grid (1.1 km2) following exhaustive quality control. Values of both indices were calculated on a weekly scale and different timescales (12, 24 and 36 months). The results show that during the first half of the study period, the SPI usually returned a higher identification of drought areas, while the reverse was true from the 1990s, suggesting that the effect from atmospheric evaporative demand could have increased. The temporal propagation from 12- to 24-month and 36-month timescales analyzed in the paper seems to be a far from straightforward phenomenon that does not follow a simple rule of time lag, because events at different temporal scales can overlap in time and space. Spatially, the propagation of drought events affecting more than 25% of the total land indicates the existence of various spatial gradients of drought propagation, mostly east-west or west-east, but also north-south have been found. No generalized episodes were found with a radial pattern, i.e., from inland to the coast.

Modelling the operation of precipitator with vortex effect

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Eysseric-Emile, C.

1994-01-01

In the Purex process which is implemented for the processing of irradiated fuels to eliminate fission products and to recover and valorise uranium and plutonium under the form of end products, a precipitation operation occurs to prepare the plutonium oxalate. This research thesis aims at analysing hydrodynamic characteristics of a specific apparatus used for this precipitation, the precipitator with vortex effect. In a first part, the author presents the problems associated with precipitation operations, their implementation in the processing of irradiated fuels, and compares the considered precipitator with other devices used for the precipitation of radioactive compounds. He proposes a review of literature on the vortex effect in agitated vessel, highlights the key parameter (the forced vortex radius), and reports some preliminary measurements performed on the precipitator. The author then reports the study of liquid phase flows in the precipitator, measurements of rate of suspension, and the study of micro-mixing with reactants. He finally reports attempts to validate trends noticed during flow analysis and a first simple modelling of the precipitator [fr

Atmospheric precipitable water in Jos, Nigeria | Utah | Nigerian ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

... the atmosphere of Jos in the month of August has a value of 4.44±0.47cm, while the minimum of 1.54±0.47cm was found in the month of February. The regression models have been presented and discussed. Keywords: Precipitable water vapour, dew-point temperature, relative humidity. Nigerian Journal of Physics Vol.

United States Historical Climatology Network Daily Temperature and Precipitation Data (1871-1997)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Easterling, D.R.

2002-10-28

This document describes a database containing daily observations of maximum and minimum temperature, precipitation amount, snowfall amount, and snow depth from 1062 observing stations across the contiguous US. This database is an expansion and update of the original 138-station database previously released by the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) as CDIAC numeric data package NDP-042. These 1062 stations are a subset of the 1221-station US Historical Climatology Network (HCN), a monthly database compiled by the National Climatic Data Center (Asheville, North Carolina) that has been widely used in analyzing US climate. Data from 1050 of these daily records extend into the 1990s, while 990 of these extend through 1997. Most station records are essentially complete for at least 40 years; the latest beginning year of record is 1948. Records from 158 stations begin prior to 1900, with that of Charleston, South Carolina beginning the earliest (1871). The daily resolution of these data makes them extremely valuable for studies attempting to detect and monitor long-term climatic changes on a regional scale. Studies using daily data may be able to detect changes in regional climate that would not be apparent from analysis of monthly temperature and precipitation data. Such studies may include analyses of trends in maximum and minimum temperatures, temperature extremes, daily temperature range, precipitation ''event size'' frequency, and the magnitude and duration of wet and dry periods. The data are also valuable in areas such as regional climate model validation and climate change impact assessment. This database is available free of charge from CDIAC as a numeric data package (NDP).

Isotopic composition of precipitation at the station Ljubljana (Reaktor, Slovenia – period 2007–2010

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Polona Vreča

2014-12-01

Full Text Available The stable isotopic composition of hydrogen and oxygen (δ2H and δ18O and the tritium activity (A were monitored in monthly collected precipitation at Ljubljana (Reaktor during the period 2007–2010. Monthly and yearly isotope variations are discussed and compared with those observed over the period 1981–2006 and with the basic meteorological parameters for Ljubljana (Bežigrad and Ljubljana (Hrastje stations for the period 2007−2010. The mean values for δ2H and δ18O, weighted by precipitation amount at Ljubljana (Reaktor, are –59.4 ‰ and –8.71 ‰. The reduced major axis local meteoric water line (LMWLRMA is δ2H = (8.19 ± 0.22×δ18O + (11.52 ± 1.97, while the precipitation weighted least square regression results in LMWLPWLSR-Re δ2H = (7.94 ± 0.21×δ18O + (9.76 ± 1.93. The lack of significant difference in the LMWL slopes indicates a relatively homogeneous distribution of monthly precipitation as well as the small number of low-amount monthly precipitation events with low deuterium excess. The deuterium excess weighted mean value is 10.3 ‰ which indicates the prevailing influence of the Atlantic air masses. The temperature coefficient of δ18O is 0.30 ‰/°C. Tritium activity in monthly precipitation shows typical seasonal variations, with a weighted mean tritium activity in this period of 8.5 TU. No decrease of mean annual activity is observed.

The Advantage of Using International Multimodel Ensemble for Seasonal Precipitation Forecast over Israel

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Amir Givati

2017-01-01

Full Text Available This study analyzes the results of monthly and seasonal precipitation forecasting from seven different global climate forecast models for major basins in Israel within October–April 1982–2010. The six National Multimodel Ensemble (NMME models and the ECMWF seasonal model were used to calculate an International Multimodel Ensemble (IMME. The study presents the performance of both monthly and seasonal predictions of precipitation accumulated over three months, with respect to different lead times for the ensemble mean values, one per individual model. Additionally, we analyzed the performance of different combinations of models. We present verification of seasonal forecasting using real forecasts, focusing on a small domain characterized by complex terrain, high annual precipitation variability, and a sharp precipitation gradient from west to east as well as from south to north. The results in this study show that, in general, the monthly analysis does not provide very accurate results, even when using the IMME for one-month lead time. We found that the IMME outperformed any single model prediction. Our analysis indicates that the optimal combinations with the high correlation values contain at least three models. Moreover, prediction with larger number of models in the ensemble produces more robust predictions. The results obtained in this study highlight the advantages of using an ensemble of global models over single models for small domain.

Characteristics of Spatial Structural Patterns and Temporal Variability of Annual Precipitation in Ningxia

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

无

2011-01-01

[Objective] The aim was to study the characteristics of the spatial structural patterns and temporal variability of annual precipitation in Ningxia.[Method] Using rotated empirical orthogonal function,the precipitation concentration index,wavelet analysis and Mann-Kendall rank statistic method,the characteristics of precipitation on the spatial-temporal variability and trend were analyzed by the monthly precipitation series in Ningxia during 1951-2008.[Result] In Ningxia,the spatial structural patterns of a...

Analysis of the historical precipitation in the South East Iberian Peninsula at different spatio-temporal scale. Study of the meteorological drought

Science.gov (United States)

Fernández-Chacón, Francisca; Pulido-Velazquez, David; Jiménez-Sánchez, Jorge; Luque-Espinar, Juan Antonio

2017-04-01

Precipitation is a fundamental climate variable that has a pronounced spatial and temporal variability on a global scale, as well as at regional and sub-regional scales. Due to its orographic complexity and its latitude the Iberian Peninsula (IP), located to the west of the Mediterranean Basin between the Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea, has a complex climate. Over the peninsula there are strong north-south and east-west gradients, as a consequence of the different low-frequency atmospheric patterns, and he overlap of these over the year will be determinants in the variability of climatic variables. In the southeast of the Iberian Peninsula dominates a dry Mediterranean climate, the precipitation is characterized as being an intermittent and discontinuous variable. In this research information coming from the Spain02 v4 database was used to study the South East (SE) IP for the 1971-2010 period with a spatial resolution of 0.11 x 0.11. We analysed precipitation at different time scale (daily, monthly, seasonal, annual,…) to study the spatial distribution and temporal tendencies. The high spatial, intra-annual and inter-annual climatic variability observed makes it necessary to propose a climatic regionalization. In addition, for the identified areas and subareas of homogeneous climate we have analysed the evolution of the meteorological drought for the same period at different time scales. The standardized precipitation index has been used at 12, 24 and 48 month temporal scale. The climatic complexity of the area determines a high variability in the drought characteristics, duration, intensity and frequency in the different climatic areas. This research has been supported by the GESINHIMPADAPT project (CGL2013-48424-C2-2-R) with Spanish MINECO funds. We would also like to thank Spain02 project for the data provided for this study.

A Global Precipitation Perspective on Persistent Extratropical Flow Anomalies

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Huffman, George J.; Adler, Robert F.; Bolvin, David T.

1999-01-01

Two globally-complete, observation-only precipitation datasets have recently been developed for the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). Both depend heavily on a variety of satellite input, as well as gauge data over land. The first, Version 2 x 79, provides monthly estimates on a 2.5 deg x 2.5 deg lat/long grid for the period 1979 through late 1999 (by the time of the conference). The second, the One-Degree Daily (1DD), provides daily estimates on a 1 deg x 1 deg grid for the period 1997 through late 1999 (by the time of the conference). Both are in beta test preparatory to release as official GPCP products. These datasets provide a unique perspective on the hydrological effects of the various atmospheric flow anomalies that have been identified by meteorologists. In this paper we discuss the regional precipitation effects that result from persistent extratropical flow anomalies. We will focus on the Pacific-North America (PNA) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) patterns. Each characteristically becomes established on synoptic time scales, but then persists for periods that can exceed a month. The onset phase of each appears to have systematic mobile features, while the mature phase tend to be more stationary. Accordingly, composites of monthly data for outstanding positive and negative events (separately) contained in the 20-year record reveal the climatological structure of the precipitation during the mature phase. The climatological anomalies of the positive, negative, and (positive-negative) composites show the expected storm-track-related shifts in precipitation, and provide the advantage of putting the known precipitation effects over land in the context of the total pattern over land and ocean. As well, this global perspective points out some unexpected areas of correlation. Day-by-day composites of daily data anchored to the onset date demonstrate the systematic features during the onset. Although the 1DD has a fairly short record, some

Standardized precipitation index zones for Mexico

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Giddings, L.; Soto, M. [Instituto de Ecologia, A.C., Xalapa, Veracruz (Mexico); Rutherford, B.M.; Maarouf, A. [Faculty of Environmental Studies, York University, Toronto, Ontario (Canada)

2005-01-01

Precipitation zone systems exists for Mexico based on seasonality, quantity of precipitation, climates and geographical divisions, but none are convenient for the study of the relation of precipitation with phenomena such as El nino. An empirical set of seven exclusively Mexican and six shared zones was derived from three series of Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) images, from 1940 through 1989: a whole year series (SPI-12) of 582 monthly images, a six month series (SPI-6) of 50 images for winter months (November through April), and a six month series (SPI-6) of 50 images for summer months (May through October). By examination of principal component and unsupervised classification images, it was found that all three series had similar zones. A set of basic training fields chosen from the principal component images was used to classify all three series. The resulting thirteen zones, presented in this article, were found to be approximately similar, varying principally at zones edges. A set of simple zones defined by just a few vertices can be used for practical operations. In general the SPI zones are homogeneous, with almost no mixture of zones and few outliers of one zone in the area of others. They are compared with a previously published map of climatic regions. Potential applications for SPI zones are discussed. [Spanish] Existen varios sistemas de zonificacion de Mexico basados en la estacionalidad, cantidad de precipitacion, climas y divisiones geograficas, pero ninguno es conveniente para el estudio de la relacion de la precipitacion con fenomenos tales como El Nino. En este trabajo se presenta un conjunto de siete zonas empiricas exclusivamente mexicanas y seis compartidas, derivadas de tres series de imagenes de SPI (Indice Estandarizado de la Precipitacion), desde 1940 a 1989: una serie de 582 imagenes mensuales (SPI-12), una series de 50 imagenes (SPI-6) de meses de invierno (noviembre a abril), y otra de 50 imagenes (SPI-6) de meses de verano

The U.S. Geological Survey Monthly Water Balance Model Futures Portal

Science.gov (United States)

Bock, Andrew R.; Hay, Lauren E.; Markstrom, Steven L.; Emmerich, Christopher; Talbert, Marian

2017-05-03

The U.S. Geological Survey Monthly Water Balance Model Futures Portal (https://my.usgs.gov/mows/) is a user-friendly interface that summarizes monthly historical and simulated future conditions for seven hydrologic and meteorological variables (actual evapotranspiration, potential evapotranspiration, precipitation, runoff, snow water equivalent, atmospheric temperature, and streamflow) at locations across the conterminous United States (CONUS).The estimates of these hydrologic and meteorological variables were derived using a Monthly Water Balance Model (MWBM), a modular system that simulates monthly estimates of components of the hydrologic cycle using monthly precipitation and atmospheric temperature inputs. Precipitation and atmospheric temperature from 222 climate datasets spanning historical conditions (1952 through 2005) and simulated future conditions (2020 through 2099) were summarized for hydrographic features and used to drive the MWBM for the CONUS. The MWBM input and output variables were organized into an open-access database. An Open Geospatial Consortium, Inc., Web Feature Service allows the querying and identification of hydrographic features across the CONUS. To connect the Web Feature Service to the open-access database, a user interface—the Monthly Water Balance Model Futures Portal—was developed to allow the dynamic generation of summary files and plots  based on plot type, geographic location, specific climate datasets, period of record, MWBM variable, and other options. Both the plots and the data files are made available to the user for download 

Statistically extrapolated nowcasting of summertime precipitation over the Eastern Alps

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Min; Bica, Benedikt; Tüchler, Lukas; Kann, Alexander; Wang, Yong

2017-07-01

This paper presents a new multiple linear regression (MLR) approach to updating the hourly, extrapolated precipitation forecasts generated by the INCA (Integrated Nowcasting through Comprehensive Analysis) system for the Eastern Alps. The generalized form of the model approximates the updated precipitation forecast as a linear response to combinations of predictors selected through a backward elimination algorithm from a pool of predictors. The predictors comprise the raw output of the extrapolated precipitation forecast, the latest radar observations, the convective analysis, and the precipitation analysis. For every MLR model, bias and distribution correction procedures are designed to further correct the systematic regression errors. Applications of the MLR models to a verification dataset containing two months of qualified samples, and to one-month gridded data, are performed and evaluated. Generally, MLR yields slight, but definite, improvements in the intensity accuracy of forecasts during the late evening to morning period, and significantly improves the forecasts for large thresholds. The structure-amplitude-location scores, used to evaluate the performance of the MLR approach, based on its simulation of morphological features, indicate that MLR typically reduces the overestimation of amplitudes and generates similar horizontal structures in precipitation patterns and slightly degraded location forecasts, when compared with the extrapolated nowcasting.

Comparing NEXRAD Operational Precipitation Estimates and Raingage Observations of Intense Precipitation in the Missouri River Basin.

Science.gov (United States)

Young, C. B.

2002-05-01

Accurate observation of precipitation is critical to the study and modeling of land surface hydrologic processes. NEXRAD radar-based precipitation estimates are increasingly used in field experiments, hydrologic modeling, and water and energy budget studies due to their high spatial and temporal resolution, national coverage, and perceived accuracy. Extensive development and testing of NEXRAD precipitation algorithms have been carried out in the Southern Plains. Previous studies (Young et al. 2000, Young et al. 1999, Smith et al. 1996) indicate that NEXRAD operational products tend to underestimate precipitation at light rain rates. This study investigates the performance of NEXRAD precipitation estimates of high-intensity rainfall, focusing on flood-producing storms in the Missouri River Basin. NEXRAD estimates for these storms are compared with data from multiple raingage networks, including NWS recording and non-recording gages and ALERT raingage data for the Kansas City metropolitan area. Analyses include comparisons of gage and radar data at a wide range of temporal and spatial scales. Particular attention is paid to the October 4th, 1998, storm that produced severe flooding in Kansas City. NOTE: The phrase `NEXRAD operational products' in this abstract includes precipitation estimates generated using the Stage III and P1 algorithms. Both of these products estimate hourly accumulations on the (approximately) 4 km HRAP grid.

Temporal variation of extreme precipitation events in Lithuania

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Egidijus Rimkus

2011-05-01

Full Text Available Heavy precipitation events in Lithuania for the period 1961-2008 were analysed. The spatial distribution and dynamics of precipitation extremes were investigated. Positive tendencies and in some cases statistically significant trends were determined for the whole of Lithuania. Atmospheric circulation processes were derived using Hess & Brezowski's classification of macrocirculation forms. More than one third of heavy precipitation events (37% were observed when the atmospheric circulation was zonal. The location of the central part of a cyclone (WZ weather condition subtype over Lithuania is the most common synoptic situation (27% during heavy precipitation events. Climatic projections according to outputs of the CCLM model are also presented in this research. The analysis shows that the recurrence of heavy precipitation events in the 21st century will increase significantly (by up to 22% in Lithuania.

Application of extraction replicas and analytical electron microscopy to precipitate phase studies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kenik, E.A.; Maziasz, P.J.

1984-01-01

Extraction replicas provide a powerful extension of AEM techniques for analysis of fine precipitates. In many cases, replicas allow more accurate analyses to be performed and, in some cases, allow unique analyses which cannot be performed in-foil. However, there are limitations to the use of extraction replicas in AEM, of which the analyst must be aware. Many can be eliminated by careful preparation. Often, combined AEM studies of precipitates in-foil and on extraction replicas provide complementary and corroborative information for the fullest analysis of precipitate phases

Microbially-Mediated Precipitation of Calcium Carbonate Nanoparticles.

Science.gov (United States)

Kang, Ser Ku; Roh, Yul

2016-02-01

The objective of this study was to investigate the biomineralization of carbonate minerals using microorganisms (Wu Do-1) enriched from rhodoliths. A 16S rRNA sequence analysis showed that Wu Do-1 mainly contained Proteus mirabilis. The pH decreased from 6.5 to 5.3 over the first 4 days of incubation due to microbial oxidation of organic acids, after which it increased to 7.8 over the remaining incubation period. XRD analysis showed that the precipitates were Mg-rich cal- cite (MgxCa(1-x)CO3), whereas no precipitates were formed without the addition of Wu Do-1 in D-1 medium. SEM-EDS analyses showed that the Mg-rich calcite had a rhombohedron shape and consisted of Ca, Si and Mg with an extracelluar polymeric substance (EPS). In addition, TEM-EDS analyses revealed they were hexagon in shape, 500-700 nm in size, and composed of Ca, Mg, C, and O. These results indicated that Wu Do-1 induced precipitation of Mg-rich calcite on the cell walls and EPS via the accumulation of Ca and/or Mg ions. Therefore, microbial precipitation of carbonate nanoparticles may play an important role in metal and carbon biogeochemistry, as well as in carbon sequestration in natural environments.

Effect of precipitation spatial distribution uncertainty on the uncertainty bounds of a snowmelt runoff model output

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Jacquin, A. P.

2012-04-01

This study analyses the effect of precipitation spatial distribution uncertainty on the uncertainty bounds of a snowmelt runoff model's discharge estimates. Prediction uncertainty bounds are derived using the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) methodology. The model analysed is a conceptual watershed model operating at a monthly time step. The model divides the catchment into five elevation zones, where the fifth zone corresponds to the catchment glaciers. Precipitation amounts at each elevation zone i are estimated as the product between observed precipitation (at a single station within the catchment) and a precipitation factor FPi. Thus, these factors provide a simplified representation of the spatial variation of precipitation, specifically the shape of the functional relationship between precipitation and height. In the absence of information about appropriate values of the precipitation factors FPi, these are estimated through standard calibration procedures. The catchment case study is Aconcagua River at Chacabuquito, located in the Andean region of Central Chile. Monte Carlo samples of the model output are obtained by randomly varying the model parameters within their feasible ranges. In the first experiment, the precipitation factors FPi are considered unknown and thus included in the sampling process. The total number of unknown parameters in this case is 16. In the second experiment, precipitation factors FPi are estimated a priori, by means of a long term water balance between observed discharge at the catchment outlet, evapotranspiration estimates and observed precipitation. In this case, the number of unknown parameters reduces to 11. The feasible ranges assigned to the precipitation factors in the first experiment are slightly wider than the range of fixed precipitation factors used in the second experiment. The mean squared error of the Box-Cox transformed discharge during the calibration period is used for the evaluation of the

Spatial variations of summer precipitation trends in South Korea, 1973-2005

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chang, Heejun; Kwon, Won-Tae

2007-01-01

We have investigated the spatial patterns of trends in summer precipitation amount, intensity, and heavy precipitation for South Korea between 1973 and 2005. All stations show increasing trends in precipitation amount during the summer months, with the highest percentage of significant increase in June precipitation for the northern and central western part of South Korea. There is a significant increase in August precipitation for stations in the southeastern part of South Korea. Only a few stations exhibited significant upward trends in September precipitation. There is a weak to moderate spatial autocorrelation with the highest Moran's I value in June precipitation amount and August precipitation intensity. The number of days with daily precipitation exceeding 50 and 30 mm during the summer has increased at all stations. Observed trends are likely to be associated with changes in large-scale atmospheric circulation, sea surface temperature anomalies, and orography, but detailed causes of these trends need further investigation

Chemical and environmental isotopes study of precipitation in Syria

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Al-Charideh, A.; Abou Zakhem, B.

2009-02-01

Chemical and isotopic compositions of monthly precipitation were monitored at 12 stations distributed over the entire region in Syria for a period of 4 years from December 1999 to April 2003. Amount of precipitation and mean air temperature of rain monthly were also recorded. The conductivity of rain waters varies between 35 μ/cm in the mountainous stations and 336 μ/cm at Deir Az-Zor station. Excepted Tartous station, the mean value of Cl in the rainfall in all station is 3.8 mg/l. The seasonal variations in δ 18 O are smaller at west stations than to the east stations due to low seasonal temperature variations. All stations are characterized by water lines with slopes significantly lower than GMWL, except Bloudan, suggesting the influence of local factors on the isotopic composition of the precipitation. d-excess values decrease from 19% in the western part to 13% in the eastern part of Syria, indicating the influence of the precipitation generated by the air masses coming from the Mediterranean Sea over Syria. A reliable altitude effect represent by depletion of heavy stable isotopes of about -0.21, and -1.47, per 100 m elevation of 18 O and δ 2 H, respectively. Monthly tritium activity and seasonal variations pattern are low in the west stations than at the east stations. The weighted mean tritium values are between 3 to 9 TU during 2000-2003, and it is increasing with distance from the Syrian coast by 1 TU /100 Km. (author)

The impact of Arctic and North Atlantic oscillation on temperature and precipitation anomalies in Serbia

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Pavlović-Berdon Nada

2012-01-01

Full Text Available The impact of the Arctic Oscillations (AO and the North Atlantic Oscillations (NAO is considered as the most prominent of atmospheric oscillations in the area of the northern hemisphere from the United States to Siberia and from the Arctic to the subtropical Atlantic. The aim of this study was to determine how these fluctuations affect the temperature and precipitation in Serbia. This paper explores the impact for the period of 50 years (1958-2007 by months and in 20 synoptic stations. The influence of the AO on temperature anomalies in Serbia can be seen by the correlation coefficient, the largest in the month of January, while its impact on precipitation is the largest in the month of February. After the test of linear correlation between the NAO index and temperature anomalies for the base period 1971-2000 for 20 synoptic stations in Serbia, it has been found that the highest correlation is in the month of January. The correlation between the NAO and the precipitation anomalies for the stations mentioned above is the highest in the month of February. Spatial patterns of the AO and the NAO influence on temperature in January and on precipitation in February were obtained by applying principal component analysis.

Implications of a decrease in the precipitation area for the past and the future

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Benestad, Rasmus E.

2018-04-01

The total area with 24 hrs precipitation has shrunk by 7% between 50°S–50°N over the period 1998–2016, according to the satellite-based Tropical Rain Measurement Mission data. A decrease in the daily precipitation area is an indication of profound changes in the hydrological cycle, where the global rate of precipitation is balanced by the global rate of evaporation. This decrease was accompanied by increases in total precipitation, evaporation, and wet-day mean precipitation. If these trends are real, then they suggest increased drought frequencies and more intense rainfall. Satellite records, however, may be inhomogeneous because they are synthesised from a number of individual missions with improved technology over time. A linear dependency was also found between the global mean temperature and the 50°S–50°N daily precipitation area with a slope value of ‑17 × 106 km 2/°C. This dependency was used with climate model simulations to make future projections which suggested a continued decrease that will strengthen in the future. The precipitation area evolves differently when the precipitation is accumulated over short and long time scales, however, and there has been a slight increase in the monthly precipitation area while the daily precipitation area decreased. An increase on monthly scale may indicate more pronounced variations in the rainfall patterns due to migrating rain-producing phenomena.

Storms over the METER--ORNL Precipitation Network: the first six months

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Miller, R.L.; Patrinos, A.A.N.; Saylor, R.E.

1979-06-01

This report presents the first set of data collected by the METER--ORNL Precipitation Network. This network of 49 recording raingages and 5 recording windsets was installed in February 1978, around the Bowen Electric Generating Plant in northwest Georgia for the purpose of investigating the potential effect of the plant's cooling towers on rainfall. This study is conducted on behalf of the DOE Program on Meteorological Effects of Thermal Energy Releases (METER). Included in this report are the complete descriptions of 98 rainfall events which occurred over the METER--ORNL network during the period February 22--August 31, 1978. These descriptions are augmented by information and data supplied by the National Weather Service (NWS). Several stratifications of the rainfall events are performed for reference purposes

Recent hydrological variability and extreme precipitation events in Moroccan Middle-Atlas mountains: micro-scale analyses of lacustrine sediments

Science.gov (United States)

Jouve, Guillaume; Vidal, Laurence; Adallal, Rachid; Bard, Edouard; Benkaddour, Abdel; Chapron, Emmanuel; Courp, Thierry; Dezileau, Laurent; Hébert, Bertil; Rhoujjati, Ali; Simonneau, Anaelle; Sonzogni, Corinne; Sylvestre, Florence; Tachikawa, Kazuyo; Viry, Elisabeth

2016-04-01

Since the 1990s, the Mediterranean basin undergoes an increase in precipitation events and extreme droughts likely to intensify in the XXI century, and whose origin is attributable to human activities since 1850 (IPCC, 2013). Regional climate models indicate a strengthening of flood episodes at the end of the XXI century in Morocco (Tramblay et al, 2012). To understand recent hydrological and paleohydrological variability in North Africa, our study focuses on the macro- and micro-scale analysis of sedimentary sequences from Lake Azigza (Moroccan Middle Atlas Mountains) covering the last few centuries. This lake is relevant since local site monitoring revealed that lake water table levels were correlated with precipitation regime (Adallal R., PhD Thesis in progress). The aim of our study is to distinguish sedimentary facies characteristic of low and high lake levels, in order to reconstruct past dry and wet periods during the last two hundred years. Here, we present results from sedimentological (lithology, grain size, microstructures under thin sections), geochemical (XRF) and physical (radiography) analyses on short sedimentary cores (64 cm long) taken into the deep basin of Lake Azigza (30 meters water depth). Cores have been dated (radionuclides 210Pb, 137Cs, and 14C dating). Two main facies were distinguished: one organic-rich facies composed of wood fragments, several reworked layers and characterized by Mn peaks; and a second facies composed of terrigenous clastic sediments, without wood nor reworked layers, and characterized by Fe, Ti, Si and K peaks. The first facies is interpreted as a high lake level stand. Indeed, the highest paleoshoreline is close to the vegetation, and steeper banks can increase the current velocity, allowing the transport of wood fragments in case of extreme precipitation events. Mn peaks are interpreted as Mn oxides precipitations under well-oxygenated deep waters after runoff events. The second facies is linked to periods of

Groundwater level responses to precipitation variability in Mediterranean insular aquifers

Science.gov (United States)

Lorenzo-Lacruz, Jorge; Garcia, Celso; Morán-Tejeda, Enrique

2017-09-01

Groundwater is one of the largest and most important sources of fresh water on many regions under Mediterranean climate conditions, which are exposed to large precipitation variability that includes frequent meteorological drought episodes, and present high evapotranspiration rates and water demand during the dry season. The dependence on groundwater increases in those areas with predominant permeable lithologies, contributing to aquifer recharge and the abundance of ephemeral streams. The increasing pressure of tourism on water resources in many Mediterranean coastal areas, and uncertainty related to future precipitation and water availability, make it urgent to understand the spatio-temporal response of groundwater bodies to precipitation variability, if sustainable use of the resource is to be achieved. We present an assessment of the response of aquifers to precipitation variability based on correlations between the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) at various time scales and the Standardized Groundwater Index (SGI) across a Mediterranean island. We detected three main responses of aquifers to accumulated precipitation anomalies: (i) at short time scales of the SPI (24 months). The differing responses were mainly explained by differences in lithology and the percentage of highly permeable rock strata in the aquifer recharge areas. We also identified differences in the months and seasons when aquifer storages are more dependent on precipitation; these were related to climate seasonality and the degree of aquifer exploitation or underground water extraction. The recharge of some aquifers, especially in mountainous areas, is related to precipitation variability within a limited spatial extent, whereas for aquifers located in the plains, precipitation variability influence much larger areas; the topography and geological structure of the island explain these differences. Results indicate large spatial variability in the response of aquifers to precipitation in

Extreme Precipitation in Poland in the Years 1951-2010

Science.gov (United States)

Malinowska, Miroslawa

2017-12-01

The characteristics of extreme precipitation, including the dominant trends, were analysed for eight stations located in different parts of Poland for the period 1951-2010. Five indices enabling the assessment of the intensity and frequency of both extremely dry and wet conditions were applied. The indices included the number of days with precipitation ≥10mm·d-1 (R10), maximum number of consecutive dry days (CDD), maximum 5-day precipitation total (R5d), simple daily intensity index (SDII), and the fraction of annual total precipitation due to events exceeding the 95th percentile calculated for the period 1961-1990. Annual trends were calculated using standard linear regression method, while the fit of the model was assessed with the F-test at the 95% confidence level. The analysed changes in extreme precipitation showed mixed patterns. A significant positive trend in the number of days with precipitation ≥10mm·d-1 (R10) was observed in central Poland, while a significant negative one, in south-eastern Poland. Based on the analysis of maximum 5-day precipitation totals (R5d), statistically significant positive trends in north-western, western and eastern parts of the country were detected, while the negative trends were found in the central and northeastern parts. Daily precipitation, expressed as single daily intensity index (SDII), increased over time in northern and central Poland. In southern Poland, the variation of SDII index showed non-significant negative tendencies. Finally, the fraction of annual total precipitation due to the events exceeding the 1961-1990 95th percentile increased at one station only, namely, in Warsaw. The indicator which refers to dry conditions, i.e. maximum number of consecutive dry days (CDD) displayed negative trends throughout the surveyed area, with the exception of Szczecin that is a representative of north-western Poland.

STAMMEX high resolution gridded daily precipitation dataset over Germany: a new potential for regional precipitation climate research

Science.gov (United States)

Zolina, Olga; Simmer, Clemens; Kapala, Alice; Mächel, Hermann; Gulev, Sergey; Groisman, Pavel

2014-05-01

We present new high resolution precipitation daily grids developed at Meteorological Institute, University of Bonn and German Weather Service (DWD) under the STAMMEX project (Spatial and Temporal Scales and Mechanisms of Extreme Precipitation Events over Central Europe). Daily precipitation grids have been developed from the daily-observing precipitation network of DWD, which runs one of the World's densest rain gauge networks comprising more than 7500 stations. Several quality-controlled daily gridded products with homogenized sampling were developed covering the periods 1931-onwards (with 0.5 degree resolution), 1951-onwards (0.25 degree and 0.5 degree), and 1971-2000 (0.1 degree). Different methods were tested to select the best gridding methodology that minimizes errors of integral grid estimates over hilly terrain. Besides daily precipitation values with uncertainty estimates (which include standard estimates of the kriging uncertainty as well as error estimates derived by a bootstrapping algorithm), the STAMMEX data sets include a variety of statistics that characterize temporal and spatial dynamics of the precipitation distribution (quantiles, extremes, wet/dry spells, etc.). Comparisons with existing continental-scale daily precipitation grids (e.g., CRU, ECA E-OBS, GCOS) which include considerably less observations compared to those used in STAMMEX, demonstrate the added value of high-resolution grids for extreme rainfall analyses. These data exhibit spatial variability pattern and trends in precipitation extremes, which are missed or incorrectly reproduced over Central Europe from coarser resolution grids based on sparser networks. The STAMMEX dataset can be used for high-quality climate diagnostics of precipitation variability, as a reference for reanalyses and remotely-sensed precipitation products (including the upcoming Global Precipitation Mission products), and for input into regional climate and operational weather forecast models. We will present

Compatibility analysis of precipitation and runoff trends over the large Siberian watersheds

OpenAIRE

Berezovskaya, Svetlana; Yang, Daqing; Kane, Douglas L.

2004-01-01

The consistency of long-term yearly precipitation and runoff trends over the largest Arctic watersheds (Ob, Yenisei and Lena Rivers) is examined. Three gridded precipitation datasets (Climatic Research Unit, University of Delaware, NCEP) are used for comparative analyses with runoff data collected at basin outlets. The results generally demonstrate inconsistency in long-term changes of basin precipitation and runoff. The Yenisei River runoff increases significantly, while precipitation data s...

Analysis on Climatic Characteristics of the Precipitation Anomaly in Southwest China in Recent 60 Years

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

ZHANG; Rong; PANG; Jing; QIN; Jun

2012-01-01

[Objective]The research aimed to analyze temporal-spatial distribution characteristics of the precipitation anomaly in southwest China from 1951 to 2010. [Method] Based on monthly precipitation data at 44 stations of southwest China and 160 stations of China from 1951 to 2010, by using EOF analysis, wavelet analysis and composite analysis, monthly and seasonal change rules of the precipitation in southwest China were analyzed. Corresponding spatial-temporal distribution characteristics of the precipitation in drought and flood years were studied. Temporal-spatial distribution characteristics of the precipitation anomaly in southwest China in recent 60 years were revealed. [Result]Seasonal distribution of the precipitation in southwest China was uneven and was typical single-peak type. Precipitation concentrated from May to September, and peak appeared in July. In recent years, rainfall in autumn significantly became less, while that in other seasons had no obvious change. Precipitation in summer had the cycle of 14 years, another for 6 years and 3-4 years of periodic oscillations. In wet years, precipitation in southwest China had same phase with that in southern China, and anti-phase with that in the junction of Qinghai, Gansu, Xinjiang and Tibet. In dry years, precipitation in southwest China had same phase with that in the eastern part of northwest China and northern China. [Conclusion]The research provided reference basis for prediction and pre-warning of the precipitation in the zone.

Fuzzy-logic-based power control system for multifield electrostatic precipitators

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Grass, N. [Siemens AG, Erlangen (Germany)

2002-10-01

The power consumption of large precipitators can be in the range of 1 MW and above. Depending on the dust load properties, the electrical power may be reduced by up to 50% by applying fuzzy logic, without significantly increasing the dust emissions. The new approach uses fuzzy logic for optimization of existing electrostatic precipitators. The software runs on a standard personal computer platform under the, Windows NT operating system. The controllers of the electrostatic precipitator power supplies are linked to the personal computer via an industrial network (e.g., PROFIBUS). The system determines online the differentials of emission versus electrical power of each field. This measurement is difficult because of overlaid events in the other zones, and process changes. The long response time of the resultant dust emission due to electrical power changes in the precipitator is an additional complication. Rules were defined for a coarse, but fast-response power adaptation of all zones. Fine tuning the running system after the coarse optimization increased the accuracy and reliability. When installed on a 4 x 5 zone precipitator in a power station, significant results were obtained. The power savings over three months of operation were in the range of 40%-60% depending on the load and fuel characteristics. Data were recorded over the test period of three months. The results are presented.

Average monthly and annual climate maps for Bolivia

KAUST Repository

Vicente-Serrano, Sergio M.; El Kenawy, Ahmed M.; Azorin-Molina, Cesar; Chura, O.; Trujillo, F.; Aguilar, Enric; Martí n-Herná ndez, Natalia; Ló pez-Moreno, Juan Ignacio; Sanchez-Lorenzo, Arturo; Morá n-Tejeda, Enrique; Revuelto, Jesú s; Ycaza, P.; Friend, F.

2015-01-01

This study presents monthly and annual climate maps for relevant hydroclimatic variables in Bolivia. We used the most complete network of precipitation and temperature stations available in Bolivia, which passed a careful quality control

Microbially Induced Precipitation of Gold(0) Nanoparticles.

Science.gov (United States)

Roh, Yu; Kang, Serku; Park, Bitna; Kim, Yumi

2015-01-01

The objectives of this study were to synthesize gold nanoparticles by biomineralization using metal-reducing bacteria and to characterize their mineralogical properties. The metal-reducing bacteria were able to reduce Au(III) to Au(0) with organic fatty acids as electron donors, as indicated by the color change of the culture solution from colorless gold ions to black precipitates at 25 degrees C. XRD, SEM- and TEM-EDS analyses of the precipitates showed that Au(0) was precipitated and formed at either the cell membrane or extracellularly. The Au(0) nanoparticles were about 200 nm in size and ball-shaped. Biomineralization for elemental Au(0) nanoparticle synthesis may be useful for the recovery of natural gold in natural environments.

Association between Precipitation and Diarrheal Disease in Mozambique.

Science.gov (United States)

Horn, Lindsay M; Hajat, Anjum; Sheppard, Lianne; Quinn, Colin; Colborn, James; Zermoglio, Maria Fernanda; Gudo, Eduardo S; Marrufo, Tatiana; Ebi, Kristie L

2018-04-10

Diarrheal diseases are a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in Africa. Although research documents the magnitude and pattern of diarrheal diseases are associated with weather in particular locations, there is limited quantification of this association in sub-Saharan Africa and no studies conducted in Mozambique. Our study aimed to determine whether variation in diarrheal disease was associated with precipitation in Mozambique. In secondary analyses we investigated the associations between temperature and diarrheal disease. We obtained weekly time series data for weather and diarrheal disease aggregated at the administrative district level for 1997-2014. Weather data include modeled estimates of precipitation and temperature. Diarrheal disease counts are confirmed clinical episodes reported to the Mozambique Ministry of Health ( n = 7,315,738). We estimated the association between disease counts and precipitation, defined as the number of wet days (precipitation > 1 mm) per week, for the entire country and for Mozambique's four regions. We conducted time series regression analyses using an unconstrained distributed lag Poisson model adjusted for time, maximum temperature, and district. Temperature was similarly estimated with adjusted covariates. Using a four-week lag, chosen a priori, precipitation was associated with diarrheal disease. One additional wet day per week was associated with a 1.86% (95% CI: 1.05-2.67%), 1.37% (95% CI: 0.70-2.04%), 2.09% (95% CI: 1.01-3.18%), and 0.63% (95% CI: 0.11-1.14%) increase in diarrheal disease in Mozambique's northern, central, southern, and coastal regions, respectively. Our study indicates a strong association between diarrheal disease and precipitation. Diarrheal disease prevention efforts should target areas forecast to experience increased rainfall. The burden of diarrheal disease may increase with increased precipitation associated with climate change, unless additional health system interventions are undertaken.

Study on the Variation Characteristic of Precipitation in Liaoning Province in Recent 48 Years

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

无

2011-01-01

[Objective] The aim was to study the variation characteristic of precipitation in Liaoning Province in recent 48 years. [Method] According to monthly precipitation data from meteorological observation station in Liaoning Province from 1961 to 2008, the variation characteristic of precipitation in Liaoning was analyzed by means of one-dimensional linear estimation, 5-year moving average and wavelet transform method in our paper. [Result] Annual mean precipitation in Liaoning from 1961 to 2008 showed decrease...

Anomalous precipitation hardening in Al-(1 wt%)Cu thin films

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bergers, L. J. C.; De Hosson, J. Th. M.; Geers, M. G. D.; Hoefnagels, J. P. M.

2018-01-01

This paper concentrates on the precipitation hardening of Al-(1 wt%)Cu thin films. It is shown that in contrast to bulk, the well-known approach of precipitation hardening in confined systems like thin layers and thin films does not operate in the conventional way. This work analyses and discusses

Key drivers of precipitation isotopes in Windhoek, Namibia (2012-2016)

Science.gov (United States)

Kaseke, K. F.; Wang, L.; Wanke, H.

2017-12-01

Southern African climate is characterized by large variability with precipitation model estimates varying by as much as 70% during summer. This difference between model estimates is partly because most models associate precipitation over Southern Africa with moisture inputs from the Indian Ocean while excluding inputs from the Atlantic Ocean. However, growing evidence suggests that the Atlantic Ocean may also contribute significant amounts of moisture to the region. This four-year (2012-2016) study investigates the isotopic composition (δ18O, δ2H and δ17O) of event-scale precipitation events, the key drivers of isotope variations and the origins of precipitation experienced in Windhoek, Namibia. Results indicate large storm-to-storm isotopic variability δ18O (25‰), δ2H (180‰) and δ17O (13‰) over the study period. Univariate analysis showed significant correlations between event precipitation isotopes and local meteorological parameters; lifted condensation level, relative humidity (RH), precipitation amount, average wind speed, surface and air temperature (p < 0.05). The number of significant correlations between local meteorological parameters and monthly isotopes was much lower suggesting loss of information through data aggregation. Nonetheless, the most significant isotope driver at both event and monthly scales was RH, consistent with the semi-arid classification of the site. Multiple linear regression analysis suggested RH, precipitation amount and air temperature were the most significant local drivers of precipitation isotopes accounting for about 50% of the variation implying that about 50% could be attributed to source origins. HYSLPIT trajectories indicated that 78% of precipitation originated from the Indian Ocean while 21% originated from the Atlantic Ocean. Given that three of the four study years were droughts while two of the three drought years were El Niño related, our data also suggests that δ'17O-δ'18O could be a useful tool to

Long-term variability of precipitation in Republic of Macedonia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Slavov, Nikola; Marinova, Tania; Ristevski, Pece

2004-01-01

During the last century a great attention has been spared to the water resources of the territories of different countries in the world. In the last decades investigations were directed towards the long-term variability of precipitation in the basic regions of agricultural production. Among these investigations the results that indicate decreasing of precipitation amounts during the potential crop-growing season are of especially great interest because precipitation decreasing affects harmfully crop production and population feeding. The purpose of the present work is to study the long-term variability of monthly precipitation sums for 5 representative meteorological stations in Republic of Macedonia: Skopje, Bitola, Prilep, Stip and Demir Kapija for the period 1925-2000. The duration and periodicity of precipitation variations are analyzed on the base of 5-years smooth values for different seasons, warm and cold half-year and for year. The tendencies of trend for the period 1925-2000 are found out.(Author)

Chemical and isotopic composition of precipitations in Syria

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Abou Zakhem, B.; Hafez, R.

2008-01-01

13 meteoric stations were selected in syria for cumulative monthly rainfall sampling during two hydrological cycles; 1991-1992 and 1992-1993. The chemical and isotopic compositions of monthly precipitation were studied. The winter and spring rainfall isotopic characteristics were determined, in addition to the syrian or local meteoric line (SMWL) was estimated with a slope of 6.63 and that of both syria and Jordan of 6.73. The effect of climatic factors as temperature and relative air humidity on oxygen-18, deuterium and d-excess were studied and it was found that the relationship between temperature and oxygen-18 and deuterium is a positive linear correlation; however, it is a negative correlation with d-excess. The mean seasonal variation amplitude was determined by 6%, and the amount effect on isotopic content of precipitation was studied. The geographic factors and its affect on isotopic contents of precipitation such as altitude were considered, furthermore, the isotopic gradient with altitude was determined for both oxygen-18 and deuterium (-0.14% and - 0.84%/100 m elevation respectively). The spatial variability of oxygen-18, deuterium, tritium and d-excess indicted the effect of mountain chains and gaps between mountains on the isotopic content of precipitation, the continental effect on tritium build-up by about 33% per 100 Km from the coast. The increase of d-excess values towards the south west proves the eastern mediterranean climate type over this region. (author)

Lessons learned from oxygen isotopes in modern precipitation applied to interpretation of speleothem records of paleoclimate from eastern Asia

Science.gov (United States)

Dayem, Katherine E.; Molnar, Peter; Battisti, David S.; Roe, Gerard H.

2010-06-01

Variability in oxygen isotope ratios collected from speleothems in Chinese caves is often interpreted as a proxy for variability of precipitation, summer precipitation, seasonality of precipitation, and/or the proportion of 18O to 16O of annual total rainfall that is related to a strengthening or weakening of the East Asian monsoon and, in some cases, to the Indian monsoon. We use modern reanalysis and station data to test whether precipitation and temperature variability over China can be related to changes in climate in these distant locales. We find that annual and rainy season precipitation totals in each of central China, south China, and east India have correlation length scales of ∼ 500 km, shorter than the distance between many speleothem records that share similar long-term time variations in δ18O values. Thus the short distances of correlation do not support, though by themselves cannot refute, the idea that apparently synchronous variations in δ18O values at widely spaced (> 500 km) caves in China are due to variations in annual precipitation amounts. We also evaluate connections between climate variables and δ18O values using available instrumental measurements of δ18O values in precipitation. These data, from stations in the Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation (GNIP), show that monthly δ18O values generally do not correlate well with either local precipitation amount or local temperature, and the degree to which monthly δ18O values do correlate with them varies from station to station. For the few locations that do show significant correlations between δ18O values and precipitation amount, we estimate the differences in precipitation amount that would be required to account for peak-to-peak differences in δ18O values in the speleothems from Hulu and Dongge caves, assuming that δ18O scales with the monthly amount of precipitation or with seasonal differences in precipitation. Insofar as the present-day relationship between δ18O

Forecasting Precipitation over the MENA Region: A Data Mining and Remote Sensing Based Approach

Science.gov (United States)

Elkadiri, R.; Sultan, M.; Elbayoumi, T.; Chouinard, K.

2015-12-01

We developed and applied an integrated approach to construct predictive tools with lead times of 1 to 12 months to forecast precipitation amounts over the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. The following steps were conducted: (1) acquire and analyze temporal remote sensing-based precipitation datasets (i.e. Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission [TRMM]) over five main water source regions in the MENA area (i.e. Atlas Mountains in Morocco, Southern Sudan, Red Sea Hills of Yemen, and Blue Nile and White Nile source areas) throughout the investigation period (1998 to 2015), (2) acquire and extract monthly values for all of the climatic indices that are likely to influence the climatic patterns over the MENA region (e.g., Northern Atlantic Oscillation [NOI], Southern Oscillation Index [SOI], and Tropical North Atlantic Index [TNA]); and (3) apply data mining methods to extract relationships between the observed precipitation and the controlling factors (climatic indices) and use predictive tools to forecast monthly precipitation over each of the identified pilot study areas. Preliminary results indicate that by using the period from January 1998 until August 2012 for model training and the period from September 2012 to January 2015 for testing, precipitation can be successfully predicted with a three-months lead over South West Yemen, Atlas Mountains in Morocco, Southern Sudan, Blue Nile sources and White Nile sources with confidence (Pearson correlation coefficient: 0.911, 0.823, 0.807, 0.801 and 0.895 respectively). Future work will focus on applying this technique for prediction of precipitation over each of the climatically contiguous areas of the MENA region. If our efforts are successful, our findings will lead the way to the development and implementation of sound water management scenarios for the MENA countries.

The environmental influence on tropical cyclone precipitation

Science.gov (United States)

Rodgers, Edward B.; Baik, Jong-Jin; Pierce, Harold F.

1994-01-01

The intensity, spatial, and temporal changes in precipitation were examined in three North Atlantic hurricanes during 1989 (Dean, Gabrielle, and Hugo) using precipitation estimates made from Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) measurements. In addition, analyses from a barotropic hurricane forecast model and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast model were used to examine the relationship between the evolution of the precipitation in these tropical cyclones and external forcing. The external forcing parameters examined were (1) mean climatological sea surface temperatures, (2) vertical wind shear, (3) environmental tropospheric water vapor flux, and (4) upper-tropospheric eddy relative angular momentum flux convergence. The analyses revealed that (1) the SSM/I precipitation estimates were able to delineate and monitor convective ring cycles similar to those observed with land-based and aircraft radar and in situ measurements; (2) tropical cyclone intensification was observed to occur when these convective rings propagated into the inner core of these systems (within 111 km of the center) and when the precipitation rates increased; (3) tropical cyclone weakening was observed to occur when these inner-core convective rings dissipated; (4) the inward propagation of the outer convective rings coincided with the dissipation of the inner convective rings when they came within 55 km of each other; (5) in regions with the combined warm sea surface temperatures (above 26 C) and low vertical wind shear (less than 5 m/s), convective rings outside the region of strong lower-tropospheric inertial stability could be initiated by strong surges of tropospheric moisture, while convective rings inside the region of strong lower-tropospheric inertial stability could be enhanced by upper-tropospheric eddy relative angular momentum flux convergence.

Generation of a stochastic precipitation model for the tropical climate

Science.gov (United States)

Ng, Jing Lin; Abd Aziz, Samsuzana; Huang, Yuk Feng; Wayayok, Aimrun; Rowshon, MK

2017-06-01

A tropical country like Malaysia is characterized by intense localized precipitation with temperatures remaining relatively constant throughout the year. A stochastic modeling of precipitation in the flood-prone Kelantan River Basin is particularly challenging due to the high intermittency of precipitation events of the northeast monsoons. There is an urgent need to have long series of precipitation in modeling the hydrological responses. A single-site stochastic precipitation model that includes precipitation occurrence and an intensity model was developed, calibrated, and validated for the Kelantan River Basin. The simulation process was carried out separately for each station without considering the spatial correlation of precipitation. The Markov chains up to the fifth-order and six distributions were considered. The daily precipitation data of 17 rainfall stations for the study period of 1954-2013 were selected. The results suggested that second- and third-order Markov chains were suitable for simulating monthly and yearly precipitation occurrences, respectively. The fifth-order Markov chain resulted in overestimation of precipitation occurrences. For the mean, distribution, and standard deviation of precipitation amounts, the exponential, gamma, log-normal, skew normal, mixed exponential, and generalized Pareto distributions performed superiorly. However, for the extremes of precipitation, the exponential and log-normal distributions were better while the skew normal and generalized Pareto distributions tend to show underestimations. The log-normal distribution was chosen as the best distribution to simulate precipitation amounts. Overall, the stochastic precipitation model developed is considered a convenient tool to simulate the characteristics of precipitation in the Kelantan River Basin.

GPM, GMI Level 3 Monthly GPROF Profiling V03

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — 3GPROF products provide global gridded monthly/daily precipitation averages from multiple satellites that can be used for climate studies. The 3GPROF products are...

Assessment of the Latest GPM-Era High-Resolution Satellite Precipitation Products by Comparison with Observation Gauge Data over the Chinese Mainland

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shaowei Ning

2016-10-01

Full Text Available The Global Precipitation Mission (GPM Core Observatory that was launched on 27 February 2014 ushered in a new era for estimating precipitation from satellites. Based on their high spatial–temporal resolution and near global coverage, satellite-based precipitation products have been applied in many research fields. The goal of this study was to quantitatively compare two of the latest GPM-era satellite precipitation products (GPM IMERG and GSMap-Gauge Ver. 6 with a network of 840 precipitation gauges over the Chinese mainland. Direct comparisons of satellite-based precipitation products with rain gauge observations over a 20 month period from April 2014 to November 2015 at 0.1° and daily/monthly resolutions showed the following results: Both of the products were capable of capturing the overall spatial pattern of the 20 month mean daily precipitation, which was characterized by a decreasing trend from the southeast to the northwest. GPM IMERG overestimated precipitation by approximately 0.09 mm/day while GSMap-Gauge Ver. 6 underestimated precipitation by −0.04 mm/day. The two satellite-based precipitation products performed better over wet southern regions than over dry northern regions. They also showed better performance in summer than in winter. In terms of mean error, root mean square error, correlation coefficient, and probability of detection, GSMap-Gauge was better able to estimate precipitation and had more stable quality results than GPM IMERG on both daily and monthly scales. GPM IMERG was more sensitive to conditions of no rain or light rainfall and demonstrated good capability of capturing the behavior of extreme precipitation events. Overall, the results revealed some limitations of these two latest satellite-based precipitation products when used over the Chinese mainland, helping to characterize some of the error features in these datasets for potential users.

Negative soil moisture-precipitation feedback in dry and wet regions.

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Lingbin; Sun, Guoqing; Zhi, Lu; Zhao, Jianjun

2018-03-05

Soil moisture-precipitation (SM-P) feedback significantly influences the terrestrial water and energy cycles. However, the sign of the feedback and the associated physical mechanism have been debated, leaving a research gap regarding global water and climate changes. Based on Koster's framework, we estimate SM-P feedback using satellite remote sensing and ground observation data sets. Methodologically, the sign of the feedback is identified by the correlation between monthly soil moisture and next-month precipitation. The physical mechanism is investigated through coupling precipitation and soil moisture (P-SM), soil moisture ad evapotranspiration (SM-E) and evapotranspiration and precipitation (E-P) correlations. Our results demonstrate that although positive SM-P feedback is predominant over land, non-negligible negative feedback occurs in dry and wet regions. Specifically, 43.75% and 40.16% of the negative feedback occurs in the arid and humid climate zones. Physically, negative SM-P feedback depends on the SM-E correlation. In dry regions, evapotranspiration change is soil moisture limited. In wet regions, evapotranspiration change is energy limited. We conclude that the complex SM-E correlation results in negative SM-P feedback in dry and wet regions, and the cause varies based on the environmental and climatic conditions.

Study of calcium carbonate and sulfate co-precipitation

KAUST Repository

Zarga, Y.

2013-06-01

Co-precipitation of mineral based salts in scaling is still not well understood and/or thermodynamically well defined in the water industry. This study focuses on investigating calcium carbonate (CaCO3) and sulfate mixed precipitation in scaling which is commonly observed in industrial water treatment processes including seawater desalination either by thermal-based or membrane-based processes. Co-precipitation kinetics were studied carefully by monitoring several parameters simultaneously measured, including: pH, calcium and alkalinity concentrations as well as quartz microbalance responses. The CaCO3 germination in mixed precipitation was found to be different than that of simple precipitation. Indeed, the co-precipitation of CaCO3 germination time was not anymore related to supersaturation as in a simple homogenous precipitation, but was significantly reduced when the gypsum crystals appeared first. On the other hand, the calcium sulfate crystals appear to reduce the energetic barrier of CaCO3 nucleation and lead to its precipitation by activating heterogeneous germination. However, the presence of CaCO3 crystals does not seem to have any significant effect on gypsum precipitation. IR spectroscopy and the Scanning Electronic Microscopy (SEM) were used to identify the nature of scales structures. Gypsum was found to be the dominant precipitate while calcite and especially vaterite were found at lower proportions. These analyses showed also that gypsum crystals promote calcite crystallization to the detriment of other forms. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd.

Reconstruction of March-June precipitation from tree rings in central Liaoning, China

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Yanchao; Liu, Yu

2017-11-01

A dendrochronological profile was generated from Chinese pines ( Pinus tabulaeformis Carr.) in the Qianshan Mountains in northeastern China. Based on correlation analyses, the pattern of precipitation from March to June ( P 36 ) was reconstructed using a simple linear model, which explained 42.7% of the total variance in observed precipitation from 1951 to 2012. The reconstructed P 36 series revealed a consistently increasing trend in precipitation during the twentieth century in the Qianshan Mountains. The reconstructed data showed trends that were similar to those in the variation in trends for March-June precipitation observed at the Shenyang station, the reconstructed January-May precipitation trends in Shenyang City, and the reconstructed average June-September relative humidity for Yiwulü Mountain. The reconstructed data also showed good agreement with the droughts reported in historical documents and recorded by meteorological stations in Liaoning. Spatial correlation analyses show that the reconstructed data reflect the variability in precipitation that occurs over much of northeastern China. In addition, our reconstruction showed a significant periodicity. The significant correlations between the reconstructed P 36 and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and sunspot numbers indicate that precipitation variability in the Qianshan Mountain region is probably driven by extensive atmosphere-sea interactions and solar activities.

Seasonality of runoff and precipitation regimes along transects in Peru and Austria

OpenAIRE

Gaudry Maria M. Cárdenas; Gutknecht Dieter; Parajka Juraj; Perdigão Rui A.P.; Blöschl Günter

2017-01-01

The aim of this study is to understand the seasonalities of runoff and precipitation and their controls along two transects in Peru and one transect in Austria. The analysis is based on daily precipitation data at 111 and 61 stations in Peru and Austria, respectively, and daily discharge data at 51 and 110 stations. The maximum Pardé coefficient is used to quantify the strength of the seasonalities of monthly precipitation and runoff. Circular statistics are used to quantify the seasonalities...

Calcite precipitates in Slovenian bottled waters.

Science.gov (United States)

Stanič, Tamara Ferjan; Miler, Miloš; Brenčič, Mihael; Gosar, Mateja

2017-06-01

Storage of bottled waters in varying ambient conditions affects its characteristics. Different storage conditions cause changes in the initial chemical composition of bottled water which lead to the occurrence of precipitates with various morphologies. In order to assess the relationship between water composition, storage conditions and precipitate morphology, a study of four brands of Slovenian bottled water stored in PET bottles was carried out. Chemical analyses of the main ions and measurements of the physical properties of water samples were performed before and after storage of water samples at different ambient conditions. SEM/EDS analysis of precipitates was performed after elapsed storage time. The results show that the presence of Mg 2+ , SO 4 2- , SiO 2 , Al, Mn and other impurities such as K + , Na + , Ba and Sr in the water controlled precipitate morphology by inhibiting crystal growth and leading to elongated rhombohedral calcite crystal forms which exhibit furrowed surfaces and calcite rosettes. Different storage conditions, however, affected the number of crystallization nuclei and size of calcite crystals. Hollow calcite spheres composed of cleavage rhombohedrons formed in the water with variable storage conditions by a combination of evaporation and precipitation of water droplets during high temperatures or by the bubble templating method.

TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION CHANGES IN TÂRGU-MURES (ROMANIA FROM PERIOD 1951-2010

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

O.Rusz

2012-03-01

Full Text Available Temperature and precipitation changes in Târgu Mures (Romania from period 1951-2010. The analysis was made based upon meteorological data collected at Târgu Mures meteorological station (Romania, Mures county, lat. 46°32’N, lon. 24°32’E, elevation 308 m, between 1951 and 2010. Several climatic parameters were studied (for instance, annual and monthly mean temperature, maximum precipitation in 24 hours, number of summer days, etc. Detected inhomogeneities are not related to instrumental causes or geographical relocation. Positive and statistical significant trends (Mann-Kendall test are indicated for: mean annual temperatures, mean temperatures of warm months, average of the maximum and minimum temperatures (annual and warm months data, number of days with mean temperature between 20.1-25.0 °C, number of days with precipitation ≥0 mm, and for all parameters of precipitation of September. The sequential version of Mann-Kendall test show a beginning of a trend in 1956 in the case of mean temperature (at same, the two and three parts regression denote this year like a moment of change, years 1965 and 1992 in the case of annual amount of precipitation. CUSUM charts indicate occurs of changes points at 1988, 2005, 2009 (mean temperature respectively at 1989, 2004 (precipitation, and at 1968, 1992 (daily temperature range. Tendencies of overlapped time series reveal a more important increase at the end of period (mainly for mean temperature. The analysis with RClimDex show for 5 extreme climate indices a significant trend: positive for summer days, warm nights, warm spell duration indicator and negative for cold nights and cold days.

On Rigorous Drought Assessment Using Daily Time Scale: Non-Stationary Frequency Analyses, Revisited Concepts, and a New Method to Yield Non-Parametric Indices

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Charles Onyutha

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Some of the problems in drought assessments are that: analyses tend to focus on coarse temporal scales, many of the methods yield skewed indices, a few terminologies are ambiguously used, and analyses comprise an implicit assumption that the observations come from a stationary process. To solve these problems, this paper introduces non-stationary frequency analyses of quantiles. How to use non-parametric rescaling to obtain robust indices that are not (or minimally skewed is also introduced. To avoid ambiguity, some concepts on, e.g., incidence, extremity, etc., were revisited through shift from monthly to daily time scale. Demonstrations on the introduced methods were made using daily flow and precipitation insufficiency (precipitation minus potential evapotranspiration from the Blue Nile basin in Africa. Results show that, when a significant trend exists in extreme events, stationarity-based quantiles can be far different from those when non-stationarity is considered. The introduced non-parametric indices were found to closely agree with the well-known standardized precipitation evapotranspiration indices in many aspects but skewness. Apart from revisiting some concepts, the advantages of the use of fine instead of coarse time scales in drought assessment were given. The links for obtaining freely downloadable tools on how to implement the introduced methods were provided.

Monthly Climate Data for Selected USGS HCDN Sites, 1951-1990

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Time series of monthly minimum and maximum temperature, precipitation and potential evapotranspiration were derived for 1337 watersheds in the conterminous United...

Monthly Climate Data for Selected USGS HCDN Sites, 1951-1990

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — ABSTRACT: Time series of monthly minimum and maximum temperature, precipitation and potential evapotranspiration were derived for 1337 watersheds in the conterminous...

The Global Precipitation Patterns Associated with Short-Term Extratropical Climate Fluctuations

Science.gov (United States)

Huffman, George J.; Adler, Robert F.; Bolvin, David T.

1999-01-01

Two globally-complete, observation-only precipitation datasets have recently been developed for the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). Both depend heavily on a variety of satellite input, as well as gauge data over land. The first, Version 2x79, provides monthly estimates on a 2.5 deg. x 2.5 deg. lat/long grid for the period 1979 through late 1999 (by the time of the conference). The second, the One-Degree Daily (1DD), provides daily estimates on a 1 deg. x l deg. grid for the period 1997 through late 1999 (by the time of the conference). Both are in beta test preparatory to release as official GPCP products. These datasets provide a unique perspective on the hydrological effects of the various atmospheric flow anomalies that have been identified by meteorologists. In this paper we discuss the regional precipitation effects that result from persistent extratropical flow anomalies. We will focus on the Pacific-North America (PNA) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) patterns. Each characteristically becomes established on synoptic time scales, but then persists for periods that can exceed a month. The onset phase of each appears to have systematic mobile features, while the mature phase tend to be more stationary. Accordingly, composites of monthly data for outstanding positive and negative events (separately) contained in the 20-year record reveal the climatological structure of the precipitation during the mature phase. The climatological anomalies of the positive, negative, and (positive-negative) composites show the expected storm-track-related shifts in precipitation, and provide the advantage of putting the known precipitation effects over land in the context of the total pattern over land and ocean. As well, this global perspective points out some unexpected areas of correlation. Day-by-day composites of daily data anchored to the onset date demonstrate the systematic features during the onset. Although the 1DD has a fairly short record, some

Towards a probabilistic regional reanalysis system for Europe: evaluation of precipitation from experiments

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Liselotte Bach

2016-11-01

Full Text Available A new development in the field of reanalyses is the incorporation of uncertainty estimation capabilities. We have developed a probabilistic regional reanalysis system for the CORDEX-EUR11 domain that is based on the numerical weather prediction model COSMO at a 12-km grid spacing. The lateral boundary conditions of all ensemble members are provided by the global reanalysis ERA-Interim. In the basic implementation of the system, uncertainties due to observation errors are estimated. Atmospheric assimilation of conventional observations perturbed by means of random samples of observation error yields estimates of the reanalysis uncertainty conditioned to observation errors. The data assimilation employed is a new scheme based on observation nudging that we denote ensemble nudging. The lower boundary of the atmosphere is regularly updated by external snow depth, sea surface temperature and soil moisture analyses. One of the most important purposes of reanalyses is the estimation of so-called essential climate variables. For regional reanalyses, precipitation has been identified as one of the essential climate variables that are potentially better represented than in other climate data sets. For that reason, we assess the representation of precipitation in our system in a pilot study. Based on two experiments, each of which extends over one month, we conduct a preliminary comparison to the global reanalysis ERA-Interim, a dynamical downscaling of the latter and the high-resolution regional reanalysis COSMO-REA6. In a next step, we assess our reanalysis system's probabilistic capabilities versus the ECMWF-EPS in terms of six-hourly precipitation sums. The added value of our probabilistic regional reanalysis system motivates the current production of a 5-year-long test reanalysis COSMO-EN-REA12 in the framework of the FP7-funded project Uncertainties in Ensembles of Regional Re-Analyses (UERRA.

Impact of vegetation feedback at subseasonal & seasonal timescales on precipitation over North America

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Y.; Wang, G.

2006-05-01

Soil moisture-vegetation-precipitation feedbacks tend to enhance soil moisture memory in some areas of the globe, which contributes to the subseasonal and seasonal climate prediction skill. In this study, the impact of vegetation on precipitation over North America is investigated using a coupled land-atmosphere model CAM3- CLM3. The coupled model has been modified to include a predictive vegetation phenology scheme and validated against the MODIS data. Vegetation phenology is modeled by updating the leaf area index (LAI) daily in response to cumulative and concurrent hydrometeorological conditions. First, driven with the climatological SST, a large group of 5-member ensembles of simulations from the late spring and summer to the end of year are generated with the different initial conditions of soil moisture. The impact of initial soil moisture anomalies on subsequent precipitation is examined with the predictive vegetation phenology scheme disabled/enabled ("SM"/"SM_Veg" ensembles). The simulated climate differences between "SM" and "SM_Veg" ensembles represent the role of vegetation in soil moisture-vegetation- precipitation feedback. Experiments in this study focus on how the response of precipitation to initial soil moisture anomalies depends on their characteristics, including the timing, magnitude, spatial coverage and vertical depth, and further how it is modified by the interactive vegetation. Our results, for example, suggest that the impact of late spring soil moisture anomalies is not evident in subsequent precipitation until early summer when local convective precipitation dominates. With the summer wet soil moisture anomalies, vegetation tends to enhance the positive feedback between soil moisture and precipitation, while vegetation tends to suppress such positive feedback with the late spring anomalies. Second, the impact of vegetation feedback is investigated by driving the model with the inter-annually varying monthly SST (1983-1994). With the

Correlation and SVD Analysis of Anomalous Spring Precipitation in Northwest China and Sea Surface Temperature in Key Region in Recent 50 Years

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

无

2011-01-01

[Objective] The aim was to study the relationship between spring precipitation anomaly in Northwest China and sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) in Key region in recent 50 years. [Method] Based on monthly average precipitation in Northwest China and global monthly sea surface temperature (SST) grid data, the effects of SSTA in equatorial central and eastern Pacific on spring precipitation in Northwest China were discussed by means of correlation and SVD analysis. [Result] For spring precipitation in Nor...

Neural network based daily precipitation generator (NNGEN-P)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Boulanger, Jean-Philippe [LODYC, UMR CNRS/IRD/UPMC, Paris (France); University of Buenos Aires, Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmosfera y los Oceanos, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Buenos Aires (Argentina); Martinez, Fernando; Segura, Enrique C. [University of Buenos Aires, Departamento de Computacion, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Buenos Aires (Argentina); Penalba, Olga [University of Buenos Aires, Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmosfera y los Oceanos, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Buenos Aires (Argentina)

2007-02-15

Daily weather generators are used in many applications and risk analyses. The present paper explores the potential of neural network architectures to design daily weather generator models. Focusing this first paper on precipitation, we design a collection of neural networks (multi-layer perceptrons in the present case), which are trained so as to approximate the empirical cumulative distribution (CDF) function for the occurrence of wet and dry spells and for the precipitation amounts. This approach contributes to correct some of the biases of the usual two-step weather generator models. As compared to a rainfall occurrence Markov model, NNGEN-P represents fairly well the mean and standard deviation of the number of wet days per month, and it significantly improves the simulation of the longest dry and wet periods. Then, we compared NNGEN-P to three parametric distribution functions usually applied to fit rainfall cumulative distribution functions (Gamma, Weibull and double-exponential). A data set of 19 Argentine stations was used. Also, data corresponding to stations in the United States, in Europe and in the Tropics were included to confirm the results. One of the advantages of NNGEN-P is that it is non-parametric. Unlike other parametric function, which adapt to certain types of climate regimes, NNGEN-P is fully adaptive to the observed cumulative distribution functions, which, on some occasions, may present complex shapes. On-going works will soon produce an extended version of NNGEN to temperature and radiation. (orig.)

Investigating precipitation changes of anthropic origin: data and methodological issues

Science.gov (United States)

de Lima, Isabel; Lovejoy, Shaun

2017-04-01

from about a month to ≈30 years. We illustrate this using local gauge data and three qualitatively different global scale precipitation products (from gauges, reanalyses and a satellite and gauge hybrid) that allow to investigate precipitation from monthly to centennial scales and in space from planetary down to 5°x5° scales. By systematically characterizing precipitation variability across wide ranges of time and space scales, we show that the anthropogenic signal only exceeded the natural variability at time scales larger than ≈20 years, so that the disagreement in the trends can be traced to these low frequencies.

Influence of Subtropical Jetstream on Arabian Gulf Precipitation

Science.gov (United States)

Sandeep, S.; Pauluis, O.; Ravindran, A. M.; TP, S.

2017-12-01

The Arabian Gulf and surrounding regions are predominantly arid. However, this region hosts a large population due to the intense economic activity that is centered on the exploration of natural resources in and around the Arabian Gulf. Thus, few precipitation events that occur during boreal winter are important for society and ecology of this region. The mechanisms of winter precipitation over the Gulf are not well understood, partly due to a lack of long term meteorological observation. Here we explore the dynamics of Arabian Gulf winter precipitation events using available observations and a high resolution atmospheric model simulation. Our analyses show that the northern Gulf receives about six times more precipitation than the southern Gulf. Often, the southern Gulf precipitation forms as a result of downstream development of northern Gulf disturbance. The southward movement of northern Gulf disturbances is influenced by the location of subtropical jet. The probability of a northern Gulf precipitating weather system to move south is higher when the subtropical jet is located equatorward of 30°N. The equatorward position of jet favors the penetration of mid-latitude weather systems over the Arabian Peninsula, which in turn pushes the Arabian anticyclone eastward and triggers moisture transport from the Arabian Sea that is essential for southern Gulf precipitation events.

Study of a novel agent for TCA precipitated proteins washing - comprehensive insights into the role of ethanol/HCl on molten globule state by multi-spectroscopic analyses.

Science.gov (United States)

Eddhif, Balkis; Lange, Justin; Guignard, Nadia; Batonneau, Yann; Clarhaut, Jonathan; Papot, Sébastien; Geffroy-Rodier, Claude; Poinot, Pauline

2018-02-20

proteins, with the aim to produce high-quality protein extracts which can be directly analyzed by LC-MS. An opening study on standard solutions showed that ethanol/HCl led to reduced losses of proteins compared to usual solvents (i.e. acetone and ethanol). This reagent also enabled a better solubilization of proteins in aqueous buffer that is necessary for their direct trypsin digestion and LC-HRMS analysis. A mechanistic study, performed through several spectroscopic analyses (LC-HRMS, Raman, spectrofluorometry), showed that treatment with ethanol/HCl induced conformational changes of TCA-precipitated proteins. Finally, we compared the efficiency of ethanol/HCl to published protocols for the washing of protein extracts from three different complex samples (i.e. soil, biofilm, and mouse liver). Our results demonstrated that ethanol/HCl is a valuable alternative to previous protein washing methods and, therefore could become a useful tool in mass spectrometry-based proteomics workflows for various applications (e.g. clinical research, chemical biology, environmental metaproteomics…). Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Factors controlling stable isotope composition of European precipitation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rozanski, K.; Sonntag, C.; Muennich, K.O.

1982-01-01

The seasonal and spatial variations of stable isotope ratios in present day European precipitation are simulated with a simple multibox model of the mean west-east horizontal transport of the atmospheric water vapour across the European continent. Isotope fractionation during the formation of precipitation leads to an increasing depletion of heavy isotopes in the residual air moisture as it moves towards the centre of the continent. This isotopic depletion is partly compensated, particularly in summer, by evapotranspiration, which is assumed to transfer soil water into the atmosphere without isotope fractionation. The model estimates are based on horizontal water vapour flux data, varying seasonally between 88 and 130 kg m -1 s -1 for the Atlantic coast region, and on the monthly precipitation, evapotranspiration and surface air temperature data available for various locations in Europe. Both continental and seasonal temperature effects observed in the stable isotope composition of European precipitation are fairly well reproduced by the model. The calculations show that the isotopic composition of local precipitation is primarily controlled by regional scale processes, i.e. by the water vapour transport patterns into the continent, and by the average precipitation-evapotranspiration history of the air masses precipitating at a given place. Local parameters such as the surface and/or cloud base temperature or the amount of precipitation modify the isotope ratios only slightly. Implications of the model predictions for the interpretation of stable isotope ratios in earlier periods as they are preserved in ice cores and in groundwater are also discussed. (Auth.)

Missing data analysis and homogeneity test for Turkish precipitation ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

the monthly and annual total precipitation records at stations operated by Turkish ... used in regional studies; the number of stations representing the area and the quality of the data are also very ..... Water Resources Management 22: 823–841.

Variability and trends of wet season temperature in the Sudano-Sahelian zone and relationships with precipitation

Science.gov (United States)

Oueslati, Boutheina; Camberlin, Pierre; Zoungrana, Joël; Roucou, Pascal; Diallo, Saliou

2018-02-01

The relationships between precipitation and temperature in the central Sudano-Sahelian belt are investigated by analyzing 50 years (1959-2008) of observed temperature (Tx and Tn) and rainfall variations. At daily time-scale, both Tx and Tn show a marked decrease as a response to rainfall occurrence, with a strongest departure from normal 1 day after the rainfall event (-0.5 to -2.5 °C depending on the month). The cooling is slightly larger when heavy rainfall events (>5 mm) are considered. The temperature anomalies weaken after the rainfall event, but are still significant several days later. The physical mechanisms accounting for the temperature response to precipitation are analysed. The Tx drop is accounted for by reduced incoming solar radiation associated with increased cloud cover and increased surface evaporation following surface moistening. The effect of evaporation becomes dominant a few days after the rainfall event. The reduced daytime heat storage and the subsequent sensible heat flux result in a later negative Tn anomaly. The effect of rainfall variations on temperature is significant for long-term warming trends. The rainfall decrease experienced between 1959 and 2008 accounts for a rainy season Tx increase of 0.15 to 0.3 °C, out of a total Tx increase of 1.3 to 1.5 °C. These results have strong implications on the assessment of future temperature changes. The dampening or amplifying effects of precipitation are determined by the sign of future precipitation trends. Confidence on temperature changes under global warming partly depend on the robustness of precipitation projections.

Natural gas monthly

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1998-01-01

The Natural Gas Monthly highlights activities, events, and analyses of interest to public and private sector organizations associated with the natural gas industry. Volume and price data are presented each month for natural gas production, distribution, consumption, and interstate pipeline activities. Producer-related activities and underground storage data are also reported. From time to time, the Natural Gas Monthly features articles designed to assist readers in using and interpreting natural gas information.

Comparing the Palmer Drought Index and the Standardized Precipitation Index for Zagreb-Gric Observatory

Science.gov (United States)

Pandzic, Kreso

2016-04-01

Conventional Palmer Drought Index (PDSI) and recent Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) are compared for Zagreb-Gric weather station. Historical time series of PDSI and SPI are compared. For that purpose monthly precipitation, air temperature and air humidity data for Zagreb-Gric Observatory and period 1862-2012 are used. The results indicate that SPI is simpler for interpretation than PDSI. On the other side, lack of temperature within SPI, make impossible use of it on climate change applications. A comparison of PDSI and SPI for the periods from 1 to 24 months indicate the best agreement between PDSI and SPI for the periods from 6 to 12 months. In addition, correlation coefficients of determination between annual corn crop per hectare and SPI 9- months time scale and PDSI from May to October are shown as significant.

Validation of satellite based precipitation over diverse topography of Pakistan

Science.gov (United States)

Iqbal, Muhammad Farooq; Athar, H.

2018-03-01

This study evaluates the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-Satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) product data with 0.25° × 0.25° spatial and post-real-time 3 h temporal resolution using point-based Surface Precipitation Gauge (SPG) data from 40 stations, for the period 1998-2013, and using gridded Asian Precipitation ˗ Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation of Water Resources (APHRODITE) data abbreviated as APH data with 0.25° × 0.25° spatial and daily temporal resolution for the period 1998-2007, over vulnerable and data sparse regions of Pakistan (24-37° N and 62-75° E). To evaluate the performance of TMPA relative to SPG and APH, four commonly used statistical indicator metrics including Mean Error (ME), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and Correlation Coefficient (CC) are employed on daily, monthly, seasonal as well as on annual timescales. The TMPA slightly overestimated both SPG and APH at daily, monthly, and annual timescales, however close results were obtained between TMPA and SPG as compared to those between TMPA and APH, on the same timescale. The TMPA overestimated both SPG and APH during the Pre-Monsoon and Monsoon seasons, whereas it underestimated during the Post-Monsoon and Winter seasons, with different magnitudes. Agreement between TMPA and SPG was good in plain and medium elevation regions, whereas TMPA overestimated APH in 31 stations. The magnitudes of MAE and RMSE were high at daily timescale as compared to monthly and annual timescales. Relatively large MAE was observed in stations located over high elevation regions, whereas minor MAE was recorded in plain area stations at daily, monthly, and annual timescales. A strong positive linear relationship between TMPA and SPG was established at monthly (0.98), seasonal (0.93 to 0.98) and annual (0.97) timescales. Precipitation increased with the increase of elevation, and not only elevation but latitude also affected the

Chemical and isotopic variations of precipitation in the Los Alamos Region, New Mexico

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Adams, A.I.; Goff, F.; Counce, D.

1995-02-01

Precipitation collectors were installed at 14 locations on the Pajarito Plateau and surrounding areas to study variations in chemistry, stable isotopes and tritium for the years 1990 to 1993. The volume of precipitation was measured and samples were collected and analyzed every three to four months. All precipitation samples contain 18 O) results record seasonal variations in precipitation as the weather patterns shift from sources in the Pacific Ocean to sources in the Gulf of Mexico. The stable isotope results also show isotopic variations due to elevation differences among the collection points. The tritium contents ( 3 H) in rain samples vary from 6.54 T.U. to 141 T.U. Contouring of high tritium values (e.g. >20 T.U.) from each collection period clearly shows that Laboratory activities release some tritium to the atmosphere. The effect of these releases are well below the limits set by the Environmental Protection Agency for drinking water (about 6200 T.U.). The magnitude of the releases is apparently greatest during the summer months. However, anomalous tritium values are detected as far north as Espahola, New Mexico for many collection periods. Tritium releases by the Laboratory are not constant; thus, the actual amount of tritium in each release has been diluted in the composite samples of our three to four month collection periods

Geostatistical Study of Precipitation on the Island of Crete

Science.gov (United States)

Agou, Vasiliki D.; Varouchakis, Emmanouil A.; Hristopulos, Dionissios T.

2015-04-01

Understanding and predicting the spatiotemporal patterns of precipitation in the Mediterranean islands is an important topic of research, which is emphasized by alarming long-term predictions for increased drought conditions [4]. The analysis of records from drought-prone areas around the world has demonstrated that precipitation data are non-Gaussian. Typically, such data are fitted to the gamma distribution function and then transformed into a normalized index, the so-called Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) [5]. The SPI can be defined for different time scales and has been applied to data from various regions [2]. Precipitation maps can be constructed using the stochastic method of Ordinary Kriging [1]. Such mathematical tools help to better understand the space-time variability and to plan water resources management. We present preliminary results of an ongoing investigation of the space-time precipitation distribution on the island of Crete (Greece). The study spans the time period from 1948 to 2012 and extends over an area of 8 336 km2. The data comprise monthly precipitation measured at 56 stations. Analysis of the data showed that the most severe drought occurred in 1950 followed by 1989, whereas the wettest year was 2002 followed by 1977. A spatial trend was observed with the spatially averaged annual precipitation in the West measured at about 450mm higher than in the East. Analysis of the data also revealed strong correlations between the precipitation in the western and eastern parts of the island. In addition to longitude, elevation (masl) was determined to be an important factor that exhibits strong linear correlation with precipitation. The precipitation data exhibit wet and dry periods with strong variability even during the wet period. Thus, fitting the data to specific probability distribution models has proved challenging. Different time scales, e.g. monthly, biannual, and annual have been investigated. Herein we focus on annual

Precipitation regime classification for the Mojave Desert: Implications for fire occurrence

Science.gov (United States)

Tagestad, Jerry; Brooks, Matthew L.; Cullinan, Valerie; Downs, Janelle; McKinley, Randy

2016-01-01

Long periods of drought or above-average precipitation affect Mojave Desert vegetation condition, biomass and susceptibility to fire. Changes in the seasonality of precipitation alter the likelihood of lightning, a key ignition source for fires. The objectives of this study were to characterize the relationship between recent, historic, and future precipitation patterns and fire. Classifying monthly precipitation data from 1971 to 2010 reveals four precipitation regimes: low winter/low summer, moderate winter/moderate summer, high winter/low summer and high winter/high summer. Two regimes with summer monsoonal precipitation covered only 40% of the Mojave Desert ecoregion but contain 88% of the area burned and 95% of the repeat burn area. Classifying historic precipitation for early-century (wet) and mid-century (drought) periods reveals distinct shifts in regime boundaries. Early-century results are similar to current, while the mid-century results show a sizeable reduction in area of regimes with a strong monsoonal component. Such a shift would suggest that fires during the mid-century period would be minimal and anecdotal records confirm this. Predicted precipitation patterns from downscaled global climate models indicate numerous epochs of high winter precipitation, inferring higher fire potential for many multi-decade periods during the next century.

Identifying and Analyzing Uncertainty Structures in the TRMM Microwave Imager Precipitation Product over Tropical Ocean Basins

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Jianbo; Kummerow, Christian D.; Elsaesser, Gregory S.

2016-01-01

Despite continuous improvements in microwave sensors and retrieval algorithms, our understanding of precipitation uncertainty is quite limited, due primarily to inconsistent findings in studies that compare satellite estimates to in situ observations over different parts of the world. This study seeks to characterize the temporal and spatial properties of uncertainty in the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Microwave Imager surface rainfall product over tropical ocean basins. Two uncertainty analysis frameworks are introduced to qualitatively evaluate the properties of uncertainty under a hierarchy of spatiotemporal data resolutions. The first framework (i.e. 'climate method') demonstrates that, apart from random errors and regionally dependent biases, a large component of the overall precipitation uncertainty is manifested in cyclical patterns that are closely related to large-scale atmospheric modes of variability. By estimating the magnitudes of major uncertainty sources independently, the climate method is able to explain 45-88% of the monthly uncertainty variability. The percentage is largely resolution dependent (with the lowest percentage explained associated with a 1 deg x 1 deg spatial/1 month temporal resolution, and highest associated with a 3 deg x 3 deg spatial/3 month temporal resolution). The second framework (i.e. 'weather method') explains regional mean precipitation uncertainty as a summation of uncertainties associated with individual precipitation systems. By further assuming that self-similar recurring precipitation systems yield qualitatively comparable precipitation uncertainties, the weather method can consistently resolve about 50 % of the daily uncertainty variability, with only limited dependence on the regions of interest.

Interdecadal Change in Extreme Precipitation over South China and Its Mechanism

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

NING Liang; QIAN Yongfu

2009-01-01

Based on the daily precipitation data taken from 17 stations over South China during the period of 1961 2003, a sudden change in summer extreme precipitation events over South China in the early 1990s along with the possible mechanism connected with the anomalies of the latent heat flux over the South China Sea and the sensible heat flux over the Indochina peninsula are examined. The results show that both the annual and summer extreme precipitation events have obvious interdecadal variations and have increased significantly since the early 1990s. Moreover, the latent heat flux over the South China Sea and the sensible heat flux over the Indochina peninsula also have obvious interdecadal variations consistent with that of the extreme precipitation, and influence different months' extreme precipitation, respectively. Their effects are achieved by the interdecadal increases of the strengthening convection over South China through the South China Sea Summer Monsoon.

Using a weather generator to downscale spatio-temporal precipitation at urban scale

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørup, Hjalte Jomo Danielsen; Christensen, Ole Bøssing; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

In recent years, urban flooding has occurred in Denmark due to very local extreme precipitation events with very short lifetime. Several of these floods have been among the most severe ever experienced. The current study demonstrates the applicability of the Spatio-Temporal Neyman-Scott Rectangular...... the observed spatio-temporal differences at very fine scale for all measured parameters. For downscaling, perturbation with a climate change signal, precipitation from four different regional climate model simulations has been analysed. The analysed models are two runs from the ENSEMBLES (RACMO...

Online Assessment of Satellite-Derived Global Precipitation Products

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Zhong; Ostrenga, D.; Teng, W.; Kempler, S.

2012-01-01

Precipitation is difficult to measure and predict. Each year droughts and floods cause severe property damages and human casualties around the world. Accurate measurement and forecast are important for mitigation and preparedness efforts. Significant progress has been made over the past decade in satellite precipitation product development. In particular, products' spatial and temporal resolutions as well as timely availability have been improved by blended techniques. Their resulting products are widely used in various research and applications. However biases and uncertainties are common among precipitation products and an obstacle exists in quickly gaining knowledge of product quality, biases and behavior at a local or regional scale, namely user defined areas or points of interest. Current online inter-comparison and validation services have not addressed this issue adequately. To address this issue, we have developed a prototype to inter-compare satellite derived daily products in the TRMM Online Visualization and Analysis System (TOVAS). Despite its limited functionality and datasets, users can use this tool to generate customized plots within the United States for 2005. In addition, users can download customized data for further analysis, e.g. comparing their gauge data. To meet increasing demands, we plan to increase the temporal coverage and expanded the spatial coverage from the United States to the globe. More products have been added as well. In this poster, we present two new tools: Inter-comparison of 3B42RT and 3B42 Inter-comparison of V6 and V7 TRMM L-3 monthly products The future plans include integrating IPWG (International Precipitation Working Group) Validation Algorithms/statistics, allowing users to generate customized plots and data. In addition, we will expand the current daily products to monthly and their climatology products. Whenever the TRMM science team changes their product version number, users would like to know the differences by

Relating ring width of Mediterranean evergreen species to seasonal and annual variations of precipitation and temperature

Science.gov (United States)

Nijland, W.; Jansma, E.; Addink, E. A.; Domínguez Delmás, M.; de Jong, S. M.

2011-05-01

Plant growth in Mediterranean landscapes is limited by the typical summer-dry climate. Forests in these areas are only marginally productive and may be quite susceptible to modern climate change. To improve our understanding of forest sensitivity to annual and seasonal climatic variability, we use tree-ring measurements of two Mediterranean evergreen tree species: Quercus ilex L. and Arbutus unedo L. We sampled 34 stems of these species on three different types of substrates in the Peyne study area in southern France. The resulting chronologies were analysed in combination with 38 yr of monthly precipitation and temperature data to reconstruct the response of stem growth to climatic variability. Results indicate a strong positive response to May and June precipitation, as well as a significant positive influence of early-spring temperatures and a negative growth response to summer heat. Comparison of the data with more detailed productivity measurements in two contrasting years confirms these observations and shows a strong productivity limiting effect of low early-summer precipitation. The results show that tree-ring data from Q.ilex and A.unedo can provide valuable information about the response of these tree species to climate variability, improving our ability to predict the effects of climate change in Mediterranean ecosystems.

Comparative Study of the Effects of ENSO Phenomenon (El Niño, La Niña on Temperature and Precipitation of Mashhad

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

vajiheh mohammadi sabet

2017-03-01

Full Text Available Introduction: The Southern Oscillation is a large scale phenomenon that changes the Normal oscillating air pressure on both sides of the Pacific Ocean. It disrupted the normal conditions and the patterns of temperature and precipitation change in the nearby region and other regions of the world. This phenomenon is caused by changing the water slope in the Pacific Ocean between Peru (northwestern South America and Northern Australia (about Indonesia and Malaysia. ENSO phenomenon is formed of Elnino (warm state and La Niña (cold state. There is high pressure system in the East and low pressure system in the West Pacific Ocean in normal conditions (Walker cycle. The trade winds blow from East to West with high intensity. ENSO start when the trade winds and temperature and pressure balance on both sides of the PacificOcean change. High pressure will form in the west and low pressure will form in the East. As a result, west will have high and east will have low rainfall. Temperature will change at these two locations. Enso longs about 6 to 18 months. This research investigated the impact of ENSO on monthly precipitation and temperature of Mashhad.The results showed that temperature and rainfall have a good relation with ENSO.This relation occurs in 0-5 month lag. Materials and Methods: The severity of ENSO phenomenon is known by an index which is called ENSO index. The index is the anomaly of sea surface temperature in the Pacific. The long-term temperature and precipitation data of Mashhad selected and analyzed. The Rainfall has no trend but temperature has trend. The trend of temperature modeled by MARS regression and trend was removed.The rainfall data changed to standard and temperature changed to anomaly for comparison with ENSO index. The 2016 annual and monthly temperature of Mashhad is not available. The 2016 Annual temperature was forecasted by ARMA (1,1 model. Then this forecast disaggregated to monthly temperature. For each period of

Chemical and isotopic composition of precipitations in Syria

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Abou Zakhem, B.; Hafez, R.

2007-05-01

The objective of this study is to determine isotopic characteristics of precipitation, the climatic and geographical conditions affecting isotopic composition in order to obtain the input function of groundwater to evaluate the water resources.13 meteoric stations were selected in Syria for cumulative monthly rainfall sampling during two hydrological cycles; 1991-1992 and 1992-1993. The chemical and isotopic compositions of monthly precipitation were studied. The winter and spring rainfall isotopic characteristics were determined, in addition to the Syrian meteoric line (SMWL) was estimated with a slope of 6.62 and that of both Syria and Jordan of 6.73. The effect of climatic factors as temperature and relative air humidity on oxygen-18, deuterium and d-excess were studied and it was found that the relationship between temperature and oxygen-18 and deuterium is a positive linear correlation; however, it is a negative correlation with d-excess. The mean seasonal variation amplitude of 18 O was about 6%, and the amount effect on isotopic content of precipitation was studied. The geographic factors and its affect on isotopic contents of precipitation such as altitude were considered, furthermore, the isotopic gradient with altitude was determined for both oxygen-18 and deuterium (-0.14 % and -0.84% /100m respectively). The spatial distribution of oxygen-18, deuterium, tritium and d-excess indicted the effect of mountain chains and gaps between mountains on the isotopic content, the continental effect on tritium build-up by about 33% per 100 Km from the coast. The increase of d-excess values towards the south west proves the eastern Mediterranean climate type over this region.(author)

Precipitation and measurements of precipitation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Schmidt, F.H.; Bruin, H.A.R. de; Attmannspacher, W.; Harrold, T.W.; Kraijenhoff van de Leur, D.A.

1977-01-01

In Western Europe, precipitation is normal phenomenon; it is of importance to all aspects of society, particularly to agriculture, in cattle breeding and, of course, it is a subject of hydrological research. Precipitation is an essential part in the hydrological cycle. How disastrous local

Spatio-temporal trend analysis of precipitation in Guizhou province based on GIS technology

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Jianfeng; Zhang, Fengtai; Pan, Yuanfen; Li, Wei; Cao, Guangjie; An, Youzhi

2018-02-01

Precipitation changes are closely related to human production and life. Based on the data of Guizhou Province from 1998 to 2012, the temporal and spatial characteristics of precipitation in Guizhou Province were analyzed from the annual, seasonal and monthly scales by linear trend analysis and ArcGIS kriging spatial interpolation. The results show that the annual precipitation is mainly concentrated in the summer, accounting for 47.6% of the year, followed by spring accounted for 26.9%, autumn accounted for 18.6% in winter accounted for 6.9%. In the time, the precipitation in the study area shows a decreasing trend in the annual scale, seasonal scale and July. The overall spatial precipitation distribution shows a decreasing trend from the east to the west. The precipitation also in the south is higher than the northern region.

Study of aluminum nitride precipitation in Fe- 3%Si steel

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

F.L. Alcântara

2013-01-01

Full Text Available For good performance of electrical steels it is necessary a high magnetic induction and a low power loss when submitted to cyclic magnetization. A fine dispersion of precipitates is a key requirement in the manufacturing process of Fe- 3%Si grain oriented electrical steel. In the production of high permeability grain oriented steel precipitate particles of copper and manganese sulphides and aluminium nitride delay normal grain growth during primary recrystallization, causing preferential growth of grains with Goss orientation during secondary recrystallization. The sulphides precipitate during the hot rolling process. The aluminium nitride particles are formed during hot rolling and the hot band annealing process. In this work AlN precipitation during hot deformation of a high permeability grain oriented 3%Si steel is examined. In the study, transfer bar samples were submitted to controlled heating, compression and cooling treatments in order to simulate a reversible hot rolling finishing. The samples were analyzed using the transmission electron microscope (TEM in order to identify the precipitates and characterize size distribution. Precipitate extraction by dissolution method and analyses by inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectrometry (ICP-OES were used to quantify the precipitation. The results allowed to describe the precipitation kinetics by a precipitation-time-temperature (PTT diagram for AlN formation during hot rolling.

future changes in seasonal-mean precipitation over west africa

African Journals Online (AJOL)

HOD

agriculture is the main source of economic livelihood in ... surface wind direction distinguishes the rainy season from the dry ... The model has a horizontal grid ... MESSAGE is Model for Energy Supply Strategy Alternatives and their General Environmental Impact ... Project (GPCP) monthly precipitation analysis [18-19].

Influences of large-scale convection and moisture source on monthly precipitation isotope ratios observed in Thailand, Southeast Asia

Science.gov (United States)

Wei, Zhongwang; Lee, Xuhui; Liu, Zhongfang; Seeboonruang, Uma; Koike, Masahiro; Yoshimura, Kei

2018-04-01

Many paleoclimatic records in Southeast Asia rely on rainfall isotope ratios as proxies for past hydroclimatic variability. However, the physical processes controlling modern rainfall isotopic behaviors in the region is poorly constrained. Here, we combined isotopic measurements at six sites across Thailand with an isotope-incorporated atmospheric circulation model (IsoGSM) and the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model to investigate the factors that govern the variability of precipitation isotope ratios in this region. Results show that rainfall isotope ratios are both correlated with local rainfall amount and regional outgoing longwave radiation, suggesting that rainfall isotope ratios in this region are controlled not only by local rain amount (amount effect) but also by large-scale convection. As a transition zone between the Indian monsoon and the western North Pacific monsoon, the spatial difference of observed precipitation isotope among different sites are associated with moisture source. These results highlight the importance of regional processes in determining rainfall isotope ratios in the tropics and provide constraints on the interpretation of paleo-precipitation isotope records in the context of regional climate dynamics.

Development of a daily gridded precipitation data set for the Middle East

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Yatagai

2008-03-01

Full Text Available We show an algorithm to construct a rain-gauge-based analysis of daily precipitation for the Middle East. One of the key points of our algorithm is to construct an accurate distribution of climatology. One possible advantage of this product is to validate high-resolution climate models and/or to diagnose the impact of climate changes on local hydrological resources. Many users are familiar with a monthly precipitation dataset (New et al., 1999 and a satellite-based daily precipitation dataset (Huffman et al., 2001, yet our data set, unlike theirs, clearly shows the effect of orography on daily precipitation and other extreme events, especially over the Fertile Crescent region. Currently the Middle-East precipitation analysis product is consisting of a 25-year data set for 1979–2003 based on more than 1300 stations.

Signature of Nonstationarity in Precipitation Extremes over Urbanizing Regions in India Identified through a Multivariate Frequency Analyses

Science.gov (United States)

Singh, Jitendra; Hari, Vittal; Sharma, Tarul; Karmakar, Subhankar; Ghosh, Subimal

2016-04-01

The statistical assumption of stationarity in hydrologic extreme time/event series has been relied heavily in frequency analysis. However, due to the analytically perceivable impacts of climate change, urbanization and concomitant land use pattern, assumption of stationarity in hydrologic time series will draw erroneous results, which in turn may affect the policy and decision-making. Past studies provided sufficient evidences on changes in the characteristics of Indian monsoon precipitation extremes and further it has been attributed to climate change and urbanization, which shows need of nonstationary analysis on the Indian monsoon extremes. Therefore, a comprehensive multivariate nonstationary frequency analysis has been conducted for the entire India to identify the precipitation characteristics (intensity, duration and depth) responsible for significant nonstationarity in the Indian monsoon. We use 1o resolution of precipitation data for a period of 1901-2004, in a Generalized Additive Model for Location, Scale and Shape (GAMLSS) framework. A cluster of GAMLSS models has been developed by considering nonstationarity in different combinations of distribution parameters through different regression techniques, and the best-fit model is further applied for bivariate analysis. A population density data has been utilized to identify the urban, urbanizing and rural regions. The results showed significant differences in the stationary and nonstationary bivariate return periods for the urbanizing grids, when compared to urbanized and rural grids. A comprehensive multivariate analysis has also been conducted to identify the precipitation characteristics particularly responsible for imprinting signature of nonstationarity.

TREND OF PRECIPITATION VARIATION IN HUBEI PROVINCE SINCE THE 1960S

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

CHEN Zheng-hong; QIN Jun

2003-01-01

Through linear regression analysis to the trend of annual, seasonal and monthly precipitation of 72 meteorological stations in Hubei Province from 1961 to 1995, it is revealed that: l) annual precipitation was increasing by 61.0mm/10a in the eastern part of Hubei (112°E as a dividing line) and decreasing by 34.9mm/10a in the western part; 2) precipitation in winter and summer (January, February, March, June and July) was increasing in almost whole province which usually with non-uniformity of precipitation distribution from the south to the north. The precipitation in spring, autumn and winter (April, September, November and December) was decreasing in most of the areas which usually with non-uniformity of precipitation distribution from the east to the west. March and December were transition periods between two spatial distribution pattems mentioned above; 3) the eastem part of Hubei has beome one of precipitation increasing centers in China. The results was consistent with the trend that more frequent flood and drought events happened in Hubei Province which are more different in spatial and temporal scales.

The Use of Convolutional Neural Network in Relating Precipitation to Circulation

Science.gov (United States)

Pan, B.; Hsu, K. L.; AghaKouchak, A.; Sorooshian, S.

2017-12-01

Precipitation prediction in dynamical weather and climate models depends on 1) the predictability of pressure or geopotential height for the forecasting period and 2) the successive work of interpreting the pressure field in terms of precipitation events. The later task is represented as parameterization schemes in numerical models, where detailed computing inevitably blurs the hidden cause-and-effect relationship in precipitation generation. The "big data" provided by numerical simulation, reanalysis and observation networks requires better causation analysis for people to digest and realize their use. While classic synoptical analysis methods are very-often insufficient for spatially distributed high dimensional data, a Convolutional Neural Network(CNN) is developed here to directly relate precipitation with circulation. Case study carried over west coast United States during boreal winter showed that CNN can locate and capture key pressure zones of different structures to project precipitation spatial distribution with high accuracy across hourly to monthly scales. This direct connection between atmospheric circulation and precipitation offers a probe for attributing precipitation to the coverage, location, intensity and spatial structure of characteristic pressure zones, which can be used for model diagnosis and improvement.

Regional climate scenarios - A study on precipitation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hesselbjerg Christensen, J.; Boessing Christensen, O.

2001-01-01

A set of nested climate change simulations for the Nordic region and Denmark has been revisited. In the present work we have re-examined the results of CCMB and MBC with special emphasis on precipitation intensity frequencies, in particular the more extreme part of the frequency distribution. It has been demonstrated that the role of extreme precipitation events appears to be more realistically described in a high-resolution model, in terms of numerical agreement as well as seasonal variation. This is mainly due to a better simulation of deep low-pressure systems and mesoscale circulation. Generally, the analysis has confirmed the results from CCMB, but furthermore a resolution effect has been identified which seems essential to the understanding of climate change effects on the extreme end of the precipitation intensity distribution. In order to analyse the role of the model resolution we have aggregated both the nested model data and observational records to the GCM grid from the driving AOGCM. It was found that, in spite of changes in absolute numbers, the seasonal behaviour of decay constants does not change appreciably because of the aggregation. The RCM results show a seasonal behaviour very similar to an observed data set. It is therefore concluded that the GCM has an unrealistic simulation of the dependence of heavy precipitation on climate, as manifested in seasonal variation. In contrast, the regional simulations remain close to observation in this respect. Furthermore, they agree on a conclusion that extreme precipitation generally scales with average precipitation (no significant change in decay constants were detected), but that crucial summer season may be an exception, exhibiting an anomalous increase in heavy precipitation due to the anthropogenic greenhouse effect. The analysis has only been performed over Denmark due to lack of daily observational data for other regions. It is, however, necessary to extend the work to other areas, for instance

Terrestrial precipitation and soil moisture: A case study over southern Arizona and data development

Science.gov (United States)

Stillman, Susan

Quantifying climatological precipitation and soil moisture as well as interannual variability and trends requires extensive observation. This work focuses on the analysis of available precipitation and soil moisture data and the development of new ways to estimate these quantities. Precipitation and soil moisture characteristics are highly dependent on the spatial and temporal scales. We begin at the point scale, examining hourly precipitation and soil moisture at individual gauges. First, we focus on the Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed (WGEW), a 150 km2 area in southern Arizona. The watershed has been measuring rainfall since 1956 with a very high density network of approximately 0.6 gauges per km2. Additionally, there are 19 soil moisture probes at 5 cm depth with data starting in 2002. In order to extend the measurement period, we have developed a water balance model which estimates monsoon season (Jul-Sep) soil moisture using only precipitation for input, and calibrated so that the modeled soil moisture fits best with the soil moisture measured by each of the 19 probes from 2002-2012. This observationally constrained soil moisture is highly correlated with the collocated probes (R=0.88), and extends the measurement period from 10 to 56 years and the number of gauges from 19 to 88. Then, we focus on the spatiotemporal variability within the watershed and the ability to estimate area averaged quantities. Spatially averaged precipitation and observationally constrained soil moisture from the 88 gauges is then used to evaluate various gridded datasets. We find that gauge-based precipitation products perform best followed by reanalyses and then satellite-based products. Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models perform the worst and overestimate cold season precipitation while offsetting the monsoon peak precipitation forward or backward by a month. Satellite-based soil moisture is the best followed by land data assimilation systems and

Precipitation patterns during channel flow

Science.gov (United States)

Jamtveit, B.; Hawkins, C.; Benning, L. G.; Meier, D.; Hammer, O.; Angheluta, L.

2013-12-01

Mineral precipitation during channelized fluid flow is widespread in a wide variety of geological systems. It is also a common and costly phenomenon in many industrial processes that involve fluid flow in pipelines. It is often referred to as scale formation and encountered in a large number of industries, including paper production, chemical manufacturing, cement operations, food processing, as well as non-renewable (i.e. oil and gas) and renewable (i.e. geothermal) energy production. We have studied the incipient stages of growth of amorphous silica on steel plates emplaced into the central areas of the ca. 1 meter in diameter sized pipelines used at the hydrothermal power plant at Hellisheidi, Iceland (with a capacity of ca 300 MW electricity and 100 MW hot water). Silica precipitation takes place over a period of ca. 2 months at approximately 120°C and a flow rate around 1 m/s. The growth produces asymmetric ca. 1mm high dendritic structures ';leaning' towards the incoming fluid flow. A novel phase-field model combined with the lattice Boltzmann method is introduced to study how the growth morphologies vary under different hydrodynamic conditions, including non-laminar systems with turbulent mixing. The model accurately predicts the observed morphologies and is directly relevant for understanding the more general problem of precipitation influenced by turbulent mixing during flow in channels with rough walls and even for porous flow. Reference: Hawkins, C., Angheluta, L., Hammer, Ø., and Jamtveit, B., Precipitation dendrites in channel flow. Europhysics Letters, 102, 54001

Observation of the movement of the precipitation by using tritium tracer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jiao, Yurong; Ishida, Sayuri; Takada, Kayoko; Imaizumi, Hiroshi; Kano, Naoki; Saito, Masaaki

2011-01-01

Tracer techniques have proven to be one of the most powerful tools to characterize the movement of air mass and pollutant transport in hydrological systems. In order to clarify the behavior of low-level tritium in the rain water, we have employed the measuring method of tritium applying a distillation process and an electrolytic enrichment process. The activity of tritium (T specific activity) in the obtained water was measured by liquid scintillation counter. This procedure was applied to bulk precipitation, imitative ground infiltrated precipitation and short term precipitation collected in Niigata City. Moreover, we investigated the concentrations of cations (Na + , K + , Ca 2+ , and Mg 2+ ) in the precipitation to associate with air mass transport patterns arriving at the place. From the above mentioned, next matters have been clarified: (1) T specific activity in precipitation was found to have a strong dependence on location and season. (2) The chemical components in precipitation during typhoon have notable character of marine air mass. (3) Associated ions in monthly precipitation showed seasonal variation, in fact, the seasonal variation of Ca 2+ and tritium were very similar. (4) Backward trajectory analysis method is useful for the analysis of the behavior of T specific activity and several ions in short-term precipitation. (author)

An assessment of differences in gridded precipitation datasets in complex terrain

Science.gov (United States)

Henn, Brian; Newman, Andrew J.; Livneh, Ben; Daly, Christopher; Lundquist, Jessica D.

2018-01-01

Hydrologic modeling and other geophysical applications are sensitive to precipitation forcing data quality, and there are known challenges in spatially distributing gauge-based precipitation over complex terrain. We conduct a comparison of six high-resolution, daily and monthly gridded precipitation datasets over the Western United States. We compare the long-term average spatial patterns, and interannual variability of water-year total precipitation, as well as multi-year trends in precipitation across the datasets. We find that the greatest absolute differences among datasets occur in high-elevation areas and in the maritime mountain ranges of the Western United States, while the greatest percent differences among datasets relative to annual total precipitation occur in arid and rain-shadowed areas. Differences between datasets in some high-elevation areas exceed 200 mm yr-1 on average, and relative differences range from 5 to 60% across the Western United States. In areas of high topographic relief, true uncertainties and biases are likely higher than the differences among the datasets; we present evidence of this based on streamflow observations. Precipitation trends in the datasets differ in magnitude and sign at smaller scales, and are sensitive to how temporal inhomogeneities in the underlying precipitation gauge data are handled.

Freezing nucleation apparatus puts new slant on study of biological ice nucleators in precipitation

Science.gov (United States)

Stopelli, E.; Conen, F.; Zimmermann, L.; Alewell, C.; Morris, C. E.

2014-01-01

For decades, drop-freezing instruments have contributed to a better understanding of biological ice nucleation and its likely implications for cloud and precipitation development. Yet, current instruments have limitations. Drops analysed on a cold stage are subject to evaporation and potential contamination. The use of closed tubes provides a partial solution to these problems, but freezing events are still difficult to be clearly detected. Here, we present a new apparatus where freezing in closed tubes is detected automatically by a change in light transmission upon ice development, caused by the formation of air bubbles and crystal facets that scatter light. Risks of contamination and introduction of biases linked to detecting the freezing temperature of a sample are then minimized. To illustrate the performance of the new apparatus we show initial results of two assays with snow samples. In one, we repeatedly analysed the sample (208 tubes) over the course of a month with storage at +4 °C, during which evidence for biological ice nucleation activity emerged through an increase in the number of ice nucleators active around -4 °C. In the second assay, we indicate the possibility of increasingly isolating a single ice nucleator from a precipitation sample, potentially determining the nature of a particle responsible for a nucleation activity measured directly in the sample. These two seminal approaches highlight the relevance of this handy apparatus for providing new points of view in biological ice nucleation research.

Evaluating satellite-derived long-term historical precipitation datasets for drought monitoring in Chile

Science.gov (United States)

Zambrano, Francisco; Wardlow, Brian; Tadesse, Tsegaye; Lillo-Saavedra, Mario; Lagos, Octavio

2017-04-01

these datasets to better understand their similarities and differences in characterizing rainfall patterns across Chile. Monthly analysis showed that all satellite products highly overestimated rainfall in the arid North zone. However, there were no major difference between all three products from North to South-Central zones. Though, in the South zone, PERSIANN-CDR shows the lowest fit with high underestimation, while CHIRPS 2.0 and TMPA 3B43 v7 had better agreement with in situ measurements. The accuracy of satellite products were highly dependent on the amount of monthly rainfall with the best results found during winter seasons and in zones (Central to South) with higher amounts of precipitation. PERSIANN-CDR and CHIRPS 2.0 were used to derive SPI at time-scale of 1, 3 and 6 months, both satellite products presented similar results when it was compared in situ against satellite SPI's. Because of its higher spatial resolution that allows better characterizing of spatial variation in precipitation pattern, the CHIRPS 2.0 was used to mapping the SPI-3 over Chile. The results of this study show that in order to use the CHIRPS 2.0 and PERSIANN-CDR datasets in Chile to monitor spatial patterns in the rainfall and drought intensity conditions, these products should be calibrated to adjust for the overestimation/underestimation of rainfall geographically specially in the North zone and seasonally during the summer and spring months in the other zones.

Daily precipitation extreme events for the Iberian Peninsula and its association with Atmospheric Rivers

Science.gov (United States)

Ramos, Alexandre M.; Trigo, Ricardo M.; Liberato, Margarida LR

2014-05-01

Extreme precipitation events in the Iberian Peninsula during the extended winter months have major socio-economic impacts such as floods, landslides, extensive property damage and life losses. These events are usually associated with low pressure systems with Atlantic origin, although some extreme events in summer/autumn months can be linked to Mediterranean low pressure systems. Quite often these events are evaluated on a casuistic base and making use of data from relatively few stations. An objective method for ranking daily precipitation events is presented here based on the extensive use of the most comprehensive database of daily gridded precipitation available for the Iberian Peninsula (IB02) and spanning from 1950 to 2008, with a resolution of 0.2° (approximately 16 x 22 km at latitude 40°N), for a total of 1673 pixels. This database is based on a dense network of rain gauges, combining two national data sets, 'Spain02' for peninsular Spain and Balearic islands, and 'PT02' for mainland Portugal, with a total of more than two thousand stations over Spain and four hundred stations over Portugal, all quality-controlled and homogenized. Through this objective method for ranking daily precipitation events the magnitude of an event is obtained after considering the area affected as well as its intensity in every grid point and taking into account the daily precipitation normalised departure from climatology. Different precipitation rankings are presented considering the entire Iberian Peninsula, Portugal and also the six largest river basins in the Iberian Peninsula. Atmospheric Rivers (AR) are the water vapour (WV) core section of the broader warm conveyor belt occurring over the oceans along the warm sector of extra-tropical cyclones. They are usually W-E oriented steered by pre-frontal low level jets along the trailing cold front and subsequently feed the precipitation in the extra-tropical cyclones. They are relatively narrow regions of concentrated WV

The impact of moisture sources on the oxygen isotope composition of precipitation at a continental site in central Europe

Science.gov (United States)

Krklec, Kristina; Domínguez-Villar, David; Lojen, Sonja

2018-06-01

The stable isotope composition of precipitation records processes taking place within the hydrological cycle. Potentially, moisture sources are important controls on the stable isotope composition of precipitation, but studies focused on this topic are still scarce. We studied the moisture sources contributing to precipitation at Postojna (Slovenia) from 2009 to 2013. Back trajectory analyses were computed for the days with precipitation at Postojna. The moisture uptake locations were identified along these trajectories using standard hydrometeorological formulation. The moisture uptake locations were integrated in eight source regions to facilitate its comparison to the monthly oxygen isotope composition (δ18O values) of precipitation. Nearly half of the precipitation originated from continental sources (recycled moisture), and >40% was from central and western Mediterranean. Results show that moisture sources do not have a significant impact on the oxygen isotope composition at this site. We suggest that the large proportion of recycled moisture originated from transpiration rather than evaporation, which produced water vapour with less negative δ18O values. Thus the difference between the oceanic and local vapour source was reduced, which prevented the distinction of the moisture sources based on their oxygen isotope signature. Nevertheless, δ18O values of precipitation are partially controlled by climate parameters, which is of major importance for paleoclimate studies. We found that the main climate control on Postojna δ18O values of precipitation is the surface temperature. Amount effect was not recorded at this site, and the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) does not impact the δ18O values of precipitation. The Western Mediterranean Oscillation (WeMO) was correlated to oxygen stable isotope composition, although this atmospheric pattern was not a control. Instead we found that the link to δ18O values results from synoptic scenarios affecting We

Kinetics of niobium carbide precipitation in ferrite; Cinetiques de precipitation du carbure de niobium dans la ferrite

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gendt, D

2001-07-01

The aim of this study is to develop a NbC precipitation modelling in ferrite. This theoretical study is motivated by the fact it considers a ternary system and focus on the concurrence of two different diffusion mechanisms. An experimental study with TEP, SANS and Vickers micro-hardening measurements allows a description of the NbC precipitation kinetics. The mean radius of the precipitates is characterized by TEM observations. To focus on the nucleation stage, we use the Tomographic Atom Probe that analyses, at an atomistic scale, the position of the solute atoms in the matrix. A first model based on the classical nucleation theory and the diffusion-limited growth describes the precipitation of spherical precipitates. To solve the set of equations, we use a numerical algorithm that furnishes an evaluation of the precipitated fraction, the mean radius and the whole size distribution of the particles. The parameters that are the interface energy, the solubility product and the diffusion coefficients are fitted with the data available in the literature and our experimental results. It allows a satisfactory agreement as regards to the simplicity of the model. Monte Carlo simulations are used to describe the evolution of a ternary alloy Fe-Nb-C on a cubic centred rigid lattice with vacancy and interstitial mechanisms. This is realized with an atomistic description of the atoms jumps and their related frequencies. The model parameters are fitted with phase diagrams and diffusion coefficients. For the sake of simplicity, we consider that the precipitation of NbC is totally coherent and we neglect any elastic strain effect. We can observe different kinetic paths: for low supersaturations, we find an expected precipitation of NbC but for higher supersaturations, the very fast diffusivity of carbon atoms conducts to the nucleation of iron carbide particles. We establish that the occurrence of this second phenomenon depends on the vacancy arrival kinetics and can be related

Is southwestern China experiencing more frequent precipitation extremes?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu, Meixian; Xu, Xianli; Wang, Kelin; Sun, Alexander Y; Liu, Wen; Zhang, Xiaoyan

2014-01-01

Climate extremes have and will continue to cause severe damages to buildings and natural environments around the world. A full knowledge of the probability of the climate extremes is important for the management and mitigation of natural hazards. Based on Mann–Kendall trend test and copulas, this study investigated the characteristics of precipitation extremes as well as their implications in southwestern China (Yunnan, Guangxi and Guizhou Province), through analyzing the changing trends and probabilistic characteristics of six indices, including the consecutive dry days, consecutive wet days, annual total wet day precipitation, heavy precipitation days (R25), max 5 day precipitation amount (Rx5) and the rainy days (RDs). Results showed that the study area had generally become drier (regional mean annual precipitation decreased by 11.4 mm per decade) and experienced enhanced precipitation extremes in the past 60 years. Relatively higher risk of drought in Yuanan and flood in Guangxi was observed, respectively. However, the changing trends of the precipitation extremes were not spatially uniform: increasing risk of extreme wet events for Guangxi and Guizhou, and increasing probability of concurrent extreme wet and dry events for Yunnan. Meanwhile, trend analyses of the 10 year return levels of the selected indices implied that the severity of droughts decreased in Yunnan but increased significantly in Guangxi and Guizhou, and the severity of floods increased in Yunnan and Guangxi in the past decades. Hence, the policy-makers need to be aware of the different characterizations and the spatial heterogeneity of the precipitation extremes. (letters)

The Contribution of Extreme Precipitation to the Total Precipitation in China

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

SUN Jian-Qi

2012-01-01

Using daily precipitation data from weather stations in China, the variations in the contribution of extreme precipitation to the total precipitation are analyzed. It is found that extreme precipitation accounts for approximately one third of the total precipitation based on the overall mean for China. Over the past half century, extreme precipitation has played a dominant role in the year-to-year variability of the total precipitation. On the decadal time scale, the extreme precipitation makes different contributions to the wetting and drying regions of China. The wetting trends of particular regions are mainly attributed to increases in extreme precipitation; in contrast, the drying trends of other regions are mainly due to decreases in non-extreme precipitation.

GPM, TRMM, GMI,TMI Level 3 Monthly GPROF Profiling V03

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — 3GPROF products provide global gridded monthly/daily precipitation averages from multiple satellites that can be used for climate studies. The 3GPROF products are...

The record precipitation and flood event in Iberia in December 1876: description and synoptic analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ricardo Machado Trigo

2014-04-01

Full Text Available The first week of December 1876 was marked by extreme weather conditions that affected the south-western sector of the Iberian Peninsula, leading to an all-time record flow in two large international rivers. As a direct consequence, several Portuguese and Spanish towns and villages located in the banks of both rivers suffered serious flood damage on 7 December 1876. These unusual floods were amplified by the preceding particularly autumn wet months, with October 1876 presenting extremely high precipitation anomalies for all western Iberia stations. Two recently digitised stations in Portugal (Lisbon and Evora, present a peak value on 5 December 1876. Furthermore, the values of precipitation registered between 28 November and 7 December were so remarkable that, the episode of 1876 still corresponds to the maximum average daily precipitation values for temporal scales between 2 and 10 days. Using several different data sources, such as historical newspapers of that time, meteorological data recently digitised from several stations in Portugal and Spain and the recently available 20th Century Reanalysis, we provide a detailed analysis on the socio-economic impacts, precipitation values and the atmospheric circulation conditions associated with this event. The atmospheric circulation during these months was assessed at the monthly, daily and sub-daily scales. All months considered present an intense negative NAO index value, with November 1876 corresponding to the lowest NAO value on record since 1865. We have also computed a multivariable analysis of surface and upper air fields in order to provide some enlightening into the evolution of the synoptic conditions in the week prior to the floods. These events resulted from the continuous pouring of precipitation registered between 28 November and 7 December, due to the consecutive passage of Atlantic low-pressure systems fuelled by the presence of an atmospheric-river tropical moisture flow over

Updated precipitation reconstruction (AD 1482-2012) for Huashan, north-central China

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Feng; Zhang, Ruibo; Wang, Huiqin; Qin, Li; Yuan, Yujiang

2016-02-01

We developed a tree-ring width chronology from pine trees ( Pinus tabulaeformis and Pinus armandii) stand near the peaks of Huashan, Shaanxi, north-central China. Growth-climate response analyses showed that the radial growth of pine trees is mainly influenced by April-June precipitation. A model to reconstruct precipitation based on tree widths was constructed, accounting for 55 % of the instrumental variance during the period 1953-2012. Spatial correlation analyses between the reconstruction and observed gridded precipitation data shows that the seasonal precipitation reconstruction captures regional climatic variations over north China. Compared with the historical archives and other tree-ring records in north China, many large-scale drought events, linked to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), were found. Many of these events have had profound impacts on the people of north China over the past several centuries. Composite maps of sea surface temperatures and 500 hPa geopotential heights for selected extremely dry and wet years in Huashan show characteristics similar to those related to the ENSO patterns, particularly with regard to ocean and atmospheric conditions in the equatorial and north Pacific. Our 531-year precipitation reconstruction for Huashan provides a long-term perspective on current and 20th century wet and dry events in north China, and is useful to guide expectations of future variability, and helps us to address climate change.

Effect of humic substances on the precipitation of calcium phosphate

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

SONG Yong-hui; Hermann H. HAHN; Erhard HOFFMANN; Peter G. WEIDLER

2006-01-01

For phosphorus (P) recovery from wastewater, the effect of humic substances (HS) on the precipitation of calcium phosphate was studied. Batch experiments of calcium phosphate precipitation were undertaken with synthetic water that contained 20 mg/L phosphate (as P) and 20 mg/L HS (as dissolved organic carbon, DOC) at a constant pH value in the range of 8.0-10.0. The concentration variations of phosphate, calcium (Ca) and HS were measured in the precipitation process; the crystalline state and compositions of the precipitates were analysed by powder X-ray diffraction (XRD) and chemical methods, respectively. It showed that at solution pH 8.0, the precipitation rate and removal efficiency of phosphate were greatly reduced by HS, but at solution pH ≥9.0,the effect of HS was very small. The Ca consumption for the precipitation of phosphate increased when HS was added; HS was also removed from solution with the precipitation of calcium phosphate. At solution pH 8.0 and HS concentrations ≤ 3.5 mg/L, and at pH ≥ 9.0 and HS concentrations ≤ 10 mg/L, the final precipitates were proved to be hydroxyapatite (HAP) by XRD. The increases of solution pH value and initial Ca/P ratio helped reduce the influence of HS on the precipitation of phosphate.

Spring precipitation in inland Iberia: land-atmosphere interactions and recycling and amplification processes.

Science.gov (United States)

Rios-Entenza, A.; Miguez-Macho, G.

2012-04-01

Inland Iberia, the highest peak of rainfall occurs in May, being critical for agriculture in large water-limited areas. We investigate here the role of the soil moisture - precipitation feedback in the intensification of the water cycle in spring and in the aforementioned maximum of precipitation in the interior of the Iberian Peninsula. We conducted paired, high-resolution simulations with the WRF-ARW model, using a nested grid that covers the Iberian Peninsula at 5km resolution. Eleven months of May (from May 2000 to May 2010) and eleven months of January (from January 2000 to January 2010) were selected. For each month, we performed two simulations: a control one, where all land-atmosphere fluxes are normally set up, and the corresponding experiment, where evapotranspired water over land in the nested domain is not incorporated into the atmosphere, although the corresponding latent heat flux is considered in the surface energy budget. As expected, precipitation is higher in the control runs with respect to the experiments and, furthermore, this fraction of extra rainfall substantially exceeds the value of the analytical recycling ratio. This suggests that amplification processes, and not only direct recycling, may play an important role in the maximum of precipitation observed in the Iberian spring. We estimated the amplification effect to be as large as the recycling with calculations using analytical methods of separation of both contributions. We also develop here a procedure to quantify the amplification impact using the no-ET experiment and results confirm those obtained analytically. These results suggest that in the Iberian spring, under favourable synoptic conditions and given a small supply of external moisture that triggers large-scale convection, land-atmosphere interactions can intensify and sustain convective processes in time. Thus there is a large impact of local land-surface fluxes on precipitation and that alterations of anthropogenic nature can

The Application of Box–Cox Transformation to Determine the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI, the Standardised Discharge Index (SDI and to Identify Drought Events: Case Study in Eastern Kujawy (Central Poland

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bartczak Arkadiusz

2014-10-01

Full Text Available The article presents the results of research into the transformation of series of hydro-meteorological data for determining dry periods with the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI and the Standardised Discharge Index (SDI. Time series from eight precipitation stations and five series of river discharge data in Eastern Kujawy (central Poland were analysed for 1951–2010. The frequency distribution of the series for their convergence with the normal distribution was tested with the Shapiro–Wilk test and homogeneity with the Bartlett's test. The transformation of the series was done with the Box–Cox technique, which made it possible to homogenise the series in terms of variance. In Poland, the technique has never been used to determine the SPI. After the transformation the distributions of virtually all series complied with the normal distribution and were homogeneous. Moreover, a statistically significant correlation between the δ transformation parameter and the skewness of the series of monthly precipitation was observed. It was similar for the series of mean monthly discharges in the winter half-year and the hydrological year. The analysis indicates an alternate occurrence of dry and wet periods both in case of precipitation and run-offs. Drought periods coincided with low flow periods. Thus, the fluctuations tend to affect the development of agriculture more than long-term ones.

Evaluation of Uncertainty in Precipitation Datasets for New Mexico, USA

Science.gov (United States)

Besha, A. A.; Steele, C. M.; Fernald, A.

2014-12-01

Climate change, population growth and other factors are endangering water availability and sustainability in semiarid/arid areas particularly in the southwestern United States. Wide coverage of spatial and temporal measurements of precipitation are key for regional water budget analysis and hydrological operations which themselves are valuable tool for water resource planning and management. Rain gauge measurements are usually reliable and accurate at a point. They measure rainfall continuously, but spatial sampling is limited. Ground based radar and satellite remotely sensed precipitation have wide spatial and temporal coverage. However, these measurements are indirect and subject to errors because of equipment, meteorological variability, the heterogeneity of the land surface itself and lack of regular recording. This study seeks to understand precipitation uncertainty and in doing so, lessen uncertainty propagation into hydrological applications and operations. We reviewed, compared and evaluated the TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) precipitation products, NOAA's (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) monthly precipitation dataset, PRISM (Parameter elevation Regression on Independent Slopes Model) data and data from individual climate stations including Cooperative Observer Program (COOP), Remote Automated Weather Stations (RAWS), Soil Climate Analysis Network (SCAN) and Snowpack Telemetry (SNOTEL) stations. Though not yet finalized, this study finds that the uncertainty within precipitation estimates datasets is influenced by regional topography, season, climate and precipitation rate. Ongoing work aims to further evaluate precipitation datasets based on the relative influence of these phenomena so that we can identify the optimum datasets for input to statewide water budget analysis.

Synoptic Drivers of Precipitation in the Atlantic Sector of the Arctic

Science.gov (United States)

Cohen, L.; Hudson, S.; Graham, R.; Renwick, J. A.

2017-12-01

Precipitation in the Arctic has been shown to be increasing in recent decades, from both observational and modelling studies, with largest trends seen in autumn and winter. This trend is attributed to a combination of the warming atmosphere and reduced sea ice extent. The seasonality of precipitation in the Arctic is important as it largely determines whether the precipitation falls as snow or rain. This study assesses the spatial and temporal variability of the synoptic drivers of precipitation in the Atlantic (European) sector of the Arctic. This region of the Arctic is of particular interest as it has the largest inter-annual variability in sea ice extent and is the primary pathway for moisture transport into the Arctic from lower latitudes. This study uses the ECMWF ERA-I reanalysis total precipitation to compare to long-term precipitation observations from Ny Ålesund, Svalbard to show that the reanalysis captures the synoptic variability of precipitation well and that most precipitation in this region is synoptically driven. The annual variability of precipitation in the Atlantic Arctic shows strong regionality. In the Svalbard and Barents Sea region, most of the annual total precipitation occurs during autumn and winter (Oct-Mar) (>60% of annual total), while the high-Arctic (> 80N) and Kara Sea receives most of the annual precipitation ( 60% of annual total) during summer (July-Sept). Using a synoptic classification developed for this region, this study shows that winter precipitation is driven by winter cyclone occurrence, with strong correlations to the AO and NAO indices. High precipitation over Svalbard is also strongly correlated with the Scandinavian blocking pattern, which produces a southerly flow in the Greenland Sea/Svalbard area. An increasing occurrence of these synoptic patterns are seen for winter months (Nov and Jan), which may explain much of the observed winter increase in precipitation.

Benchmarking homogenization algorithms for monthly data

Science.gov (United States)

Venema, V. K. C.; Mestre, O.; Aguilar, E.; Auer, I.; Guijarro, J. A.; Domonkos, P.; Vertacnik, G.; Szentimrey, T.; Stepanek, P.; Zahradnicek, P.; Viarre, J.; Müller-Westermeier, G.; Lakatos, M.; Williams, C. N.; Menne, M. J.; Lindau, R.; Rasol, D.; Rustemeier, E.; Kolokythas, K.; Marinova, T.; Andresen, L.; Acquaotta, F.; Fratiannil, S.; Cheval, S.; Klancar, M.; Brunetti, M.; Gruber, C.; Prohom Duran, M.; Likso, T.; Esteban, P.; Brandsma, T.; Willett, K.

2013-09-01

The COST (European Cooperation in Science and Technology) Action ES0601: Advances in homogenization methods of climate series: an integrated approach (HOME) has executed a blind intercomparison and validation study for monthly homogenization algorithms. Time series of monthly temperature and precipitation were evaluated because of their importance for climate studies. The algorithms were validated against a realistic benchmark dataset. Participants provided 25 separate homogenized contributions as part of the blind study as well as 22 additional solutions submitted after the details of the imposed inhomogeneities were revealed. These homogenized datasets were assessed by a number of performance metrics including i) the centered root mean square error relative to the true homogeneous values at various averaging scales, ii) the error in linear trend estimates and iii) traditional contingency skill scores. The metrics were computed both using the individual station series as well as the network average regional series. The performance of the contributions depends significantly on the error metric considered. Although relative homogenization algorithms typically improve the homogeneity of temperature data, only the best ones improve precipitation data. Moreover, state-of-the-art relative homogenization algorithms developed to work with an inhomogeneous reference are shown to perform best. The study showed that currently automatic algorithms can perform as well as manual ones.

Comparison of GPM IMERG, TMPA 3B42 and PERSIANN-CDR satellite precipitation products over Malaysia

Science.gov (United States)

Tan, Mou Leong; Santo, Harrif

2018-04-01

The launch of the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission has prompted the assessment of the newly released satellite precipitation products (SPPs) in different parts of the world. This study performed an initial comparison of three GPM IMERG products (IMERG_E, IMERG_L and IMERG_F) with its predecessor, the TMPA 3B42 and 3B42RT products, and a long-term PERSIANN-CDR product over Malaysia. The performance of six SPPs was evaluated using 501 precipitation gauges from 12 March 2014 to 29 February 2016. The annual, seasonal, monthly and daily precipitation measurements were validated using three widely used statistical metrics (CC, RMSE and RB). The precipitation detection capability (POD, FAR and CSI), probability density function (PDF) and the 2014-2015 flood event analysis were also considered in this assessment. The results show that all the SPPs perform well in annual and monthly precipitation measurements. The spatial variability of the total annual precipitation in 2015 is well captured by all six SPPs, with high precipitation amount in southern East Malaysia, and low precipitation amount in the middle part of Peninsular Malaysia. In contrast, all the SPPs show moderate correlation at daily precipitation estimations, with better performance during the northeast monsoon season. The performance of all the SPPs is better in eastern Peninsular Malaysia, but poorer in northern Peninsular Malaysia. All the SPPs have good precipitation detection ability, except the PERSIANN-CDR. All the SPPs underestimate the light (0-1 mm/day) and violent (> 50 mm/day) precipitation classes, but overestimate moderate and heavy (1-50 mm/day) precipitation classes. The IMERG is shown to have a better capability in detecting light precipitation (0-1 mm/day) compared to the other SPPs. The PERSIANN-CDR has the worst performance in capturing all the precipitation classes, with significant underestimation of light precipitation (0-1 mm/day) class and overestimation of moderate and

Supercritical antisolvent co-precipitation of rifampicin and ethyl cellulose.

Science.gov (United States)

Djerafi, Rania; Swanepoel, Andri; Crampon, Christelle; Kalombo, Lonji; Labuschagne, Philip; Badens, Elisabeth; Masmoudi, Yasmine

2017-05-01

Rifampicin-loaded submicron-sized particles were prepared through supercritical anti-solvent process using ethyl cellulose as polymeric encapsulating excipient. Ethyl acetate and a mixture of ethyl acetate/dimethyl sulfoxide (70/30 and 85/15) were used as solvents for both drug and polymeric excipient. When ethyl acetate was used, rifampicin was crystallized separately without being embedded within the ethyl cellulose matrix while by using the ethyl acetate/dimethyl sulfoxide mixture, reduced crystallinity of the active ingredient was observed and a simultaneous precipitation of ethyl cellulose and drug was achieved. The effect of solvent/CO 2 molar ratio and polymer/drug mass ratio on the co-precipitates morphology and drug loading was investigated. Using the solvent mixture, co-precipitates with particle sizes ranging between 190 and 230nm were obtained with drug loading and drug precipitation yield from respectively 8.5 to 38.5 and 42.4 to 77.2% when decreasing the ethyl cellulose/rifampicin ratio. Results show that the solvent nature and the initial drug concentrations affect morphology and drug precipitation yield of the formulations. In vitro dissolution studies revealed that the release profile of rifampicin was sustained when co-precipitation was carried out with the solvent mixture. It was demonstrated that the drug to polymer ratio influenced amorphous content of the SAS co-precipitates. Differential scanning calorimetry thermograms and infrared spectra revealed that there is neither interaction between rifampicin and the polymer nor degradation of rifampicin during co-precipitation. In addition, stability stress tests on SAS co-precipitates were carried out at 75% relative humidity and room temperature in order to evaluate their physical stability. SAS co-precipitates were X-ray amorphous and remained stable after 6months of storage. The SAS co-precipitation process using a mixture of ethyl acetate/dimethyl sulfoxide demonstrates that this strategy can

Validation of Satellite Precipitation (trmm 3B43) in Ecuadorian Coastal Plains, Andean Highlands and Amazonian Rainforest

Science.gov (United States)

Ballari, D.; Castro, E.; Campozano, L.

2016-06-01

Precipitation monitoring is of utmost importance for water resource management. However, in regions of complex terrain such as Ecuador, the high spatio-temporal precipitation variability and the scarcity of rain gauges, make difficult to obtain accurate estimations of precipitation. Remotely sensed estimated precipitation, such as the Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis TRMM, can cope with this problem after a validation process, which must be representative in space and time. In this work we validate monthly estimates from TRMM 3B43 satellite precipitation (0.25° x 0.25° resolution), by using ground data from 14 rain gauges in Ecuador. The stations are located in the 3 most differentiated regions of the country: the Pacific coastal plains, the Andean highlands, and the Amazon rainforest. Time series, between 1998 - 2010, of imagery and rain gauges were compared using statistical error metrics such as bias, root mean square error, and Pearson correlation; and with detection indexes such as probability of detection, equitable threat score, false alarm rate and frequency bias index. The results showed that precipitation seasonality is well represented and TRMM 3B43 acceptably estimates the monthly precipitation in the three regions of the country. According to both, statistical error metrics and detection indexes, the coastal and Amazon regions are better estimated quantitatively than the Andean highlands. Additionally, it was found that there are better estimations for light precipitation rates. The present validation of TRMM 3B43 provides important results to support further studies on calibration and bias correction of precipitation in ungagged watershed basins.

Long term precipitation trends and variability within the Mediterranean region

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C. M. Philandras

2011-12-01

Full Text Available In this study, the trends and variability of annual precipitation totals and annual rain days over land within the Mediterranean region are analyzed. Long term ground-based observations concerning, on one hand, monthly precipitation totals (1900–2010 and rain days (1965–2010 from 40 meteorological stations within the Mediterranean region were obtained from the Hellenic National Meteorological Service and the World Climate Data and Monitoring Programme (WCDMP of the World Meteorological Organization. On the other hand, high spatial resolution (0.5° × 0.5° gridded monthly data CRU TS 3.1 were acquired from the Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, for the period 1901–2009. The two datasets were compared by means of trends and variability, while the influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO in the Mediterranean precipitation was examined. In the process, the climatic changes in the precipitation regime between the period 1961–1990 (reference period and the period 2071–2100 (future climate were presented using climate model simulations (RACMO2.1/KNMI. The future climate projections were based on SRES A1B.

The findings of the analysis showed that statistically significant (95% confidence level negative trends of the annual precipitation totals exist in the majority of Mediterranean regions during the period 1901–2009, with an exception of northern Africa, southern Italy and western Iberian peninsula, where slight positive trends (not statistically significant at 95% CL appear. Concerning the annual number of rain days, a pronounced decrease of 20 %, statistically significant (95% confidence level, appears in representative meteorological stations of east Mediterranean, while the trends are insignificant for west and central Mediterranean. Additionally, NAO index was found to be anticorrelated with the precipitation totals and the number of rain days mainly in Spain, southern France, Italy and Greece. These

Correlation between δ18O in precipitation and surface air temperature on different time-scale in China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang Lin; Chen Zongyu; Nie Zhenlong; Liu Fuliang; Jia Yankun; Zhang Xiangyang

2008-01-01

The relation between isotopic compositions of precipitation and surface air temperature provides a unique tool for paleoclimate studies, among which the relation between long term changes in δ 18 O of precipitation and surface air temperature at different stations or in a given location seems to be the most appropriate to paleoclimatic reconstructions. Analysis was conducted on monthly and annual mean δ 18 O content of precipitation and surface air temperature at spatial and fixed locations by using the data of China (1985-2002) in Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation (GNIP) Database. This study shows that there is a positive correlation between δ 18 O of precipitation and surface air temperature for stations located in north of 34 degree-36 degree N latitudes. The seasonal δ 18 O-temperature gradient derived from the monthly data of 12 stations in northern China is about 0.034% degree C -1 . The δ 18 O-temperature gradient, however, derived from the long term annual mean data of 13 stations, is about 0.052% degree C -1 , which is substantially larger than the seasonal gradient. (authors)

Nonlinear regression and ARIMA models for precipitation chemistry in East Central Florida from 1978 to 1997

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nickerson, David M.; Madsen, Brooks C.

2005-01-01

Continuous monitoring of precipitation in East Central Florida has occurred since 1978 at a sampling site located on the University of Central Florida (UCF) campus. Monthly volume-weighted average (VWA) concentration for several major analytes that are present in precipitation samples was calculated from samples collected daily. Monthly VWA concentration and wet deposition of H + , NH 4 + , Ca 2+ , Mg 2+ , NO 3 - , Cl - and SO 4 2- were evaluated by a nonlinear regression (NLR) model that considered 10-year data (from 1978 to 1987) and 20-year data (from 1978 to 1997). Little change in the NLR parameter estimates was indicated among the 10-year and 20-year evaluations except for general decreases in the predicted trends from the 10-year to the 20-year fits. Box-Jenkins autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models with linear trend were considered as an alternative to the NLR models for these data. The NLR and ARIMA model forecasts for 1998 were compared to the actual 1998 data. For monthly VWA concentration values, the two models gave similar results. For the wet deposition values, the ARIMA models performed considerably better. - Autoregressive integrated moving average models of precipitation data are an improvement over nonlinear models for the prediction of precipitation chemistry composition

Salts-based size-selective precipitation: toward mass precipitation of aqueous nanoparticles.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Chun-Lei; Fang, Min; Xu, Shu-Hong; Cui, Yi-Ping

2010-01-19

Purification is a necessary step before the application of nanocrystals (NCs), since the excess matter in nanoparticles solution usually causes a disadvantage to their subsequent coupling or assembling with other materials. In this work, a novel salts-based precipitation technique is originally developed for the precipitation and size-selective precipitation of aqueous NCs. Simply by addition of salts, NCs can be precipitated from the solution. After decantation of the supernatant solution, the precipitates can be dispersed in water again. By means of adjusting the addition amount of salt, size-selective precipitation of aqueous NCs can be achieved. Namely, the NCs with large size are precipitated preferentially, leaving small NCs in solution. Compared with the traditional nonsolvents-based precipitation technique, the current one is simpler and more rapid due to the avoidance of condensation and heating manipulations used in the traditional precipitation process. Moreover, the salts-based precipitation technique was generally available for the precipitation of aqueous nanoparticles, no matter if there were semiconductor NCs or metal nanoparticles. Simultaneously, the cost of the current method is also much lower than that of the traditional nonsolvents-based precipitation technique, making it applicable for mass purification of aqueous NCs.

Oceanographic Monthly Summary

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Oceanographic Monthly Summary contains sea surface temperature (SST) analyses on both regional and ocean basin scales for the Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian Oceans....

TerraClimate, a high-resolution global dataset of monthly climate and climatic water balance from 1958-2015

Science.gov (United States)

Abatzoglou, John T.; Dobrowski, Solomon Z.; Parks, Sean A.; Hegewisch, Katherine C.

2018-01-01

We present TerraClimate, a dataset of high-spatial resolution (1/24°, ~4-km) monthly climate and climatic water balance for global terrestrial surfaces from 1958-2015. TerraClimate uses climatically aided interpolation, combining high-spatial resolution climatological normals from the WorldClim dataset, with coarser resolution time varying (i.e., monthly) data from other sources to produce a monthly dataset of precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature, wind speed, vapor pressure, and solar radiation. TerraClimate additionally produces monthly surface water balance datasets using a water balance model that incorporates reference evapotranspiration, precipitation, temperature, and interpolated plant extractable soil water capacity. These data provide important inputs for ecological and hydrological studies at global scales that require high spatial resolution and time varying climate and climatic water balance data. We validated spatiotemporal aspects of TerraClimate using annual temperature, precipitation, and calculated reference evapotranspiration from station data, as well as annual runoff from streamflow gauges. TerraClimate datasets showed noted improvement in overall mean absolute error and increased spatial realism relative to coarser resolution gridded datasets.

Relating ring width of Mediterranean evergreen species to seasonal and annual variations of precipitation and temperature

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

W. Nijland

2011-05-01

Full Text Available Plant growth in Mediterranean landscapes is limited by the typical summer-dry climate. Forests in these areas are only marginally productive and may be quite susceptible to modern climate change. To improve our understanding of forest sensitivity to annual and seasonal climatic variability, we use tree-ring measurements of two Mediterranean evergreen tree species: Quercus ilex L. and Arbutus unedo L. We sampled 34 stems of these species on three different types of substrates in the Peyne study area in southern France. The resulting chronologies were analysed in combination with 38 yr of monthly precipitation and temperature data to reconstruct the response of stem growth to climatic variability. Results indicate a strong positive response to May and June precipitation, as well as a significant positive influence of early-spring temperatures and a negative growth response to summer heat. Comparison of the data with more detailed productivity measurements in two contrasting years confirms these observations and shows a strong productivity limiting effect of low early-summer precipitation. The results show that tree-ring data from Q.ilex and A.unedo can provide valuable information about the response of these tree species to climate variability, improving our ability to predict the effects of climate change in Mediterranean ecosystems.

Projections of the Ganges-Brahmaputra precipitation: downscaled from GCM predictors

Science.gov (United States)

Pervez, Md Shahriar; Henebry, Geoffrey M.

2014-01-01

Downscaling Global Climate Model (GCM) projections of future climate is critical for impact studies. Downscaling enables use of GCM experiments for regional scale impact studies by generating regionally specific forecasts connecting global scale predictions and regional scale dynamics. We employed the Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) to downscale 21st century precipitation for two data-sparse hydrologically challenging river basins in South Asia—the Ganges and the Brahmaputra. We used CGCM3.1 by Canadian Center for Climate Modeling and Analysis version 3.1 predictors in downscaling the precipitation. Downscaling was performed on the basis of established relationships between historical Global Summary of Day observed precipitation records from 43 stations and National Center for Environmental Prediction re-analysis large scale atmospheric predictors. Although the selection of predictors was challenging during the set-up of SDSM, they were found to be indicative of important physical forcings in the basins. The precipitation of both basins was largely influenced by geopotential height: the Ganges precipitation was modulated by the U component of the wind and specific humidity at 500 and 1000 h Pa pressure levels; whereas, the Brahmaputra precipitation was modulated by the V component of the wind at 850 and 1000 h Pa pressure levels. The evaluation of the SDSM performance indicated that model accuracy for reproducing precipitation at the monthly scale was acceptable, but at the daily scale the model inadequately simulated some daily extreme precipitation events. Therefore, while the downscaled precipitation may not be the suitable input to analyze future extreme flooding or drought events, it could be adequate for analysis of future freshwater availability. Analysis of the CGCM3.1 downscaled precipitation projection with respect to observed precipitation reveals that the precipitation regime in each basin may be significantly impacted by climate change

Intensification of extreme European summer precipitation in a warmer climate

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christensen, O. B.; Christensen, J. H.

2004-01-01

Heavy and/or extended precipitation episodes with subsequent surface runoff can inflict catastrophic property damage and loss of human life. Thus, it is important to determine how the character of such events could change in response to greenhouse gas-induced global warming. Impacts of climate...... warming on severe precipitation events in Europe on a diurnal time scale were investigated with a high-resolution regional climate model for two of the greenhouse gas emission scenarios constructed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC; Nakicenovic, N., et al., 2000, IPCC special report...... models both originating from fully transient climate change simulations. Here, we show that although the summer time precipitation decreases over a substantial part of Europe in the scenarios analysed, an increase in the amount of precipitation exceeding the present-day 99th and in most cases even the 95...

Evaluating Satellite Products for Precipitation Estimation in Mountain Regions: A Case Study for Nepal

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tarendra Lakhankar

2013-08-01

Full Text Available Precipitation in mountain regions is often highly variable and poorly observed, limiting abilities to manage water resource challenges. Here, we evaluate remote sensing and ground station-based gridded precipitation products over Nepal against weather station precipitation observations on a monthly timescale. We find that the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM 3B-43 precipitation product exhibits little mean bias and reasonable skill in giving precipitation over Nepal. Compared to station observations, the TRMM precipitation product showed an overall Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.49, which is similar to the skill of the gridded station-based product Asian Precipitation-Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation of Water Resources (APHRODITE. The other satellite precipitation products considered (Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (GSMaP, the Climate Prediction Center Morphing technique (CMORPH, Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information Using Artificial Neural Networks-Cloud Classification System (PERSIANN-CCS were less skillful, as judged by Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency, and, on average, substantially underestimated precipitation compared to station observations, despite their, in some cases, higher nominal spatial resolution compared to TRMM. None of the products fully captured the dependence of mean precipitation on elevation seen in the station observations. Overall, the TRMM product is promising for use in water resources applications.

Recent and future extreme precipitation over Ukraine

Science.gov (United States)

Vyshkvarkova, Olena; Voskresenskaya, Elena

2014-05-01

of Atlantic multidecadal oscillation. Typical space distribution of extreme precipitation (R95p) for seasons and for year is characterized by their southward intensity increasing from North-East and North-West. Summer precipitation extremes are characterized by quite homogeneous distribution. Linear trends of indices of precipitation extremes (R95p, R20mm and R30mm) for period 1951 - 2005 are mainly negative in winter season and positive in summer. To analyze the possible changes of extreme precipitation it was calculated the R95p index for recent climate period (1986 - 2005) and for periods 2046 - 2065 and 2081 - 2100 (as it was recommended by IPCC). Its difference between 1986 - 2005 and 2046 - 2065 shows that intensity of extreme precipitation will decrease in the north-east and increase in the south-west regions, especially in summer season. Magnitude of intensity changes of extreme precipitation will be ± 4 - 5 mm/day. The intensity changes of extreme precipitation since the recent climate period till the end of the century will be some less (2 - 3 mm/day) than in previous period, except summer months. Number of cases with precipitation extremes will be increase in southern regions of Ukraine in summer seasons. In other seasons it will be at the recent climate level.

Understanding rapid theoretical change in particle physics: a month-by-month co-citation analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sullivan, D.; Koester, D.; White, D.H.; Kern, R.

1979-01-01

While co-citation analysis has proved a powerful tool in the study of changes in intellectual foci in science, no one has ever used the technique to study very rapid changes in the theoretical structure of a scientific field. This paper presents month-by-month co-citation analyses of key phases in the weak-electromagnetic unification research program within particle physics, and shows that these analyses capture and illuminate very rapid intellectual changes. These data provide yet another illustration of the utility of co-citation analysis for understanding the history of science. 8 figures

On precipitation monitoring with theoretical statistical distributions

Science.gov (United States)

Cindrić, Ksenija; Juras, Josip; Pasarić, Zoran

2018-04-01

A common practice in meteorological drought monitoring is to transform the observed precipitation amounts to the standardised precipitation index (SPI). Though the gamma distribution is usually employed for this purpose, some other distribution may be used, particularly in regions where zero precipitation amounts are recorded frequently. In this study, two distributions are considered alongside with the gamma distribution: the compound Poisson exponential distribution (CPE) and the square root normal distribution (SRN). They are fitted to monthly precipitation amounts measured at 24 stations in Croatia in the 55-year-long period (1961-2015). At five stations, long-term series (1901-2015) are available and they have been used for a more detailed investigation. The accommodation of the theoretical distributions to empirical ones is tested by comparison of the corresponding empirical and theoretical ratios of the skewness and the coefficient of variation. Furthermore, following the common approach to precipitation monitoring (CLIMAT reports), the comparison of the empirical and theoretical quintiles in the two periods (1961-1990 and 1991-2015) is examined. The results from the present study reveal that it would be more appropriate to implement theoretical distributions in such climate reports, since they provide better evaluation for monitoring purposes than the current empirical distribution. Nevertheless, deciding on an optimal theoretical distribution for different climate regimes and for different time periods is not easy to accomplish. With regard to Croatian stations (covering different climate regimes), the CPE or SRN distribution could also be the right choice in the climatological practice, in addition to the gamma distribution.

A long-term variation of chemical composition in precipitation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yoshioka, Ryuma; Okimura, Takashi; Okumura, Takenobu

1991-01-01

Precipitation samples are collected at the six localities in the southwestern Japan weekly or monthly over a long period of time (1978-1989) in order to estimate chemical weathering rates and amount of weathered materials through chemical composition in natural waters. Major chemical composition is determined for the precipitation samples. Together with the data available in the literature, the following characteristics are recognized : 1) Most pH values fall in the narrow range of 4.4 to 5.4, 2) Systematic variations in pH values are observed among the precipitation samples of different geologic environments, 3) pH values become almost constant from 1984 to 1989, 4) NO 3 - concentrations gradually decrease to an almost constant value with time, and 5) ΔSO 4 2- concentrations gradually have a tendency to decrease from 1978 to 1985. The mechanism of phenomena described above is also presented. (author)

Precipitation and synoptic regime in two extreme years 2009 and 2010 at Dome C, Antarctica – implications for ice core interpretation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

E. Schlosser

2016-04-01

Full Text Available At the East Antarctic deep ice core drilling site Dome C, daily precipitation measurements were initiated in 2006 and are being continued until today. The amounts and stable isotope ratios of the precipitation samples as well as crystal types are determined. Within the measuring period, the two years 2009 and 2010 showed striking contrasting temperature and precipitation anomalies, particularly in the winter seasons. The reasons for these anomalies are analysed using data from the mesoscale atmospheric model WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting Model run under the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS. 2009 was relatively warm and moist due to frequent warm air intrusions connected to amplification of Rossby waves in the circumpolar westerlies, whereas the winter of 2010 was extremely dry and cold. It is shown that while in 2010 a strong zonal atmospheric flow was dominant, in 2009 an enhanced meridional flow prevailed, which increased the meridional transport of heat and moisture onto the East Antarctic plateau and led to a number of high-precipitation/warming events at Dome C. This was also evident in a positive (negative SAM (Southern Annular Mode index and a negative (positive ZW3 (zonal wave number three index during the winter months of 2010 (2009. Changes in the frequency or seasonality of such event-type precipitation can lead to a strong bias in the air temperature derived from stable water isotopes in ice cores.

Evaluation of the impact of ENSO on precipitation extremes in southern Brazil considering the ODP phases

Science.gov (United States)

Firpo, M. A.; Sansigolo, C. A.

2011-12-01

One of the most important modes of interannual variability from ocean-atmosphere system is the El Niño/Southern Oscillation - ENSO. The Brazil southern region belongs to the Southeast of South America, where there is a strong signal of ENSO, especially over the precipitation. This phenomenon can be modulated by low frequency climate patterns, especially the dominant pattern of North Pacific, called Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Attempting to better understand these interactions, the objective of this study was to investigate the seasonal impact of ENSO events over the Southern Brazil precipitation, taking into account the PDO phases. The dataset used in this study, consist of monthly precipitation records of six well distributed stations from southern Brazil (Rio Grande do Sul state). From these series it was calculated a unique index, which was categorized in three classes, in order to obtain the extremes: very below normal precipitation (below the percentile 10), normal precipitation (between percentile 10 and 90) and very above normal precipitation (above the percentile 90). To characterize the ENSO events, it was applied the Trenberth (1997) criteria in the index proposed by Bunge and Clarke (2009), which corrects the inconsistencies between the conventional SST index for Niño 3.4 region and the Southern Oscillation Index before 1950, going beyond the incoherence for decadal scale. For PDO, it was used the index proposed by Mantua et al. (1997). Contingency tables were constructed to analyze the seasonal, simultaneous, and 3, 6, 9 and 12 months lagged relationships between ENSO events (El Niño, neutral, La Niña), and extreme precipitation anomalies (categories), also considering the PDO phases during the 1913-1999 period. Moreover, a wavelet analysis was used to check the coherency and phase among these 3 times series during the 1913-2006 period. The Contingency Tables analysis showed that, generally, there were more positive (negative) precipitation

Annual and interannual variation of precipitation over the tropical Indian Ocean

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

RameshKumar, M.R.; Prasad, T.G.

/month, and the lowest amplitudes are found in the western Indian Ocean, especially off the Arabian and east African coasts. The INSAT and GEOS Precipitation Index (GPI) rainfall estimates correlated reasonably well with the island rainfall data, with correlation...

Simulated effects of a seasonal precipitation change on the vegetation in tropical Africa

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

E. S. Gritti

2010-03-01

Full Text Available Pollen data collected in Africa at high (Kuruyange, valley swamp, Burundi and low altitude (Victoria, lake, Uganda; Ngamakala, pond, Congo showed that after 6 ky before present (BP, pollen of deciduous trees increase their relative percentage, suggesting thus the reduction of the annual amount of precipitation and/or an increase of in the length of the dry season. Until now, pollen-climate transfer functions only investigated mean annual precipitation, due to the absence of modern pollen-assemblage analogs under diversified precipitation regimes. Hence these functions omit the potential effect of a change in precipitation seasonality modifying thus the length of the dry season. In the present study, we use an equilibrium biosphere model (i.e. BIOME3.5 to estimate the sensitivity of equatorial African vegetation, at specific sites, to such changes. Climatic scenarios, differing only in the monthly distribution of the current annual amount of precipitation, are examined at the above three locations in equatorial Africa. Soil characteristics, monthly temperatures and cloudiness are kept constant at their present-day values. Good agreement is shown between model simulations and current biomes assemblages, as inferred from pollen data. To date, the increase of the deciduous forest component in the palaeodata around 6 ky BP has been interpreted as the beginning of a drier climate period. However, our results demonstrate that a change in the seasonal distribution of precipitation could also induce the observed changes in vegetation types. This study confirms the importance of taking into account seasonal changes in the hydrological balance. Palaeoecologists can greatly benefit from the use of dynamic process based vegetation models to acccount for modification of the length of the dry season when they wish to reconstruct vegetation composition or to infer quantitative climate parameters, such as temperature and precipitation, from pollen or vegetation

A global satellite assisted precipitation climatology

Science.gov (United States)

Funk, Christopher C.; Verdin, Andrew P.; Michaelsen, Joel C.; Pedreros, Diego; Husak, Gregory J.; Peterson, P.

2015-01-01

Accurate representations of mean climate conditions, especially in areas of complex terrain, are an important part of environmental monitoring systems. As high-resolution satellite monitoring information accumulates with the passage of time, it can be increasingly useful in efforts to better characterize the earth's mean climatology. Current state-of-the-science products rely on complex and sometimes unreliable relationships between elevation and station-based precipitation records, which can result in poor performance in food and water insecure regions with sparse observation networks. These vulnerable areas (like Ethiopia, Afghanistan, or Haiti) are often the critical regions for humanitarian drought monitoring. Here, we show that long period of record geo-synchronous and polar-orbiting satellite observations provide a unique new resource for producing high resolution (0.05°) global precipitation climatologies that perform reasonably well in data sparse regions. Traditionally, global climatologies have been produced by combining station observations and physiographic predictors like latitude, longitude, elevation, and slope. While such approaches can work well, especially in areas with reasonably dense observation networks, the fundamental relationship between physiographic variables and the target climate variables can often be indirect and spatially complex. Infrared and microwave satellite observations, on the other hand, directly monitor the earth's energy emissions. These emissions often correspond physically with the location and intensity of precipitation. We show that these relationships provide a good basis for building global climatologies. We also introduce a new geospatial modeling approach based on moving window regressions and inverse distance weighting interpolation. This approach combines satellite fields, gridded physiographic indicators, and in situ climate normals. The resulting global 0.05° monthly precipitation climatology, the Climate

Inter-Comparison and Evaluation of Remote Sensing Precipitation Products over China from 2005 to 2013

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Qiaolin Zeng

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Precipitation is a key aspect of the climate system. In this paper, the dependability of five satellite precipitation products (TRMM [Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission] 3BV42, PERSIANN [Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks] CDR, GSMaP [Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation] RENALYSIS, CMORPH [Climate Prediction Center’s morphing technique] BLD and CMORPH_RAW were compared with in situ measurements over China for the period of 2005 to 2013. To completely evaluate these precipitation products, the annual, seasonal and monthly precipitation averages were calculated. Overall, the Huaihe River and Qinlin mountains are shown to have heavy precipitation to the southeast and lighter precipitation to the northwest. The comparison results indicate that Gauge correction (CMORPH_BLD improves the quality of the original satellite products (CMORPH_RAW, resulting in the higher correlation coefficient (CC, the low relative bias (BIAS and root mean square error (RMSE. Over China, the GSMaP_RENALYSIS outperforms other products and shows the highest CC (0.91 and lowest RMSE (0.85 mm/day and all products except for PERSIANN_CDR exhibit underestimation. GSMaP_RENALYSIS gives the highest of probability of detection (81%, critical success index (63% and lowest false alarm ratio (36% while TRMM3BV42 gives the highest of frequency bias index (1.00. Over Tibetan Plateau, CMORPH_RAW demonstrates the poorest performance with the biggest BIAS (4.2 mm/month and lowest CC (0.22 in December 2013. GSMaP_RENALYSIS displays quite consistent with in situ measurements in summer. However, GSMaP_RENALYSIS and CMORPH_RAW underestimate precipitation over South China. CMORPH_BLD and TRMM3BV42 show consistent with high CC (>0.8 but relatively large RMSE in summer.

GPM, METOP-A, GMI,MHS Level 3 Monthly GPROF Profiling V03

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — 3GPROF products provide global gridded monthly/daily precipitation averages from multiple satellites that can be used for climate studies. The 3GPROF products are...

GPM, METOP-B, GMI,MHS Level 3 Monthly GPROF Profiling V03

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — 3GPROF products provide global gridded monthly/daily precipitation averages from multiple satellites that can be used for climate studies. The 3GPROF products are...

GPM, F16,GMI,SSMI Level 3 Monthly GPROF Profiling V03

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — 3GPROF products provide global gridded monthly/daily precipitation averages from multiple satellites that can be used for climate studies. The 3GPROF products are...

GPM, F17,GMI,SSMI Level 3 Monthly GPROF Profiling V03

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — 3GPROF products provide global gridded monthly/daily precipitation averages from multiple satellites that can be used for climate studies. The 3GPROF products are...

GPM, F18,GMI,SSMI Level 3 Monthly GPROF Profiling V03

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — 3GPROF products provide global gridded monthly/daily precipitation averages from multiple satellites that can be used for climate studies. The 3GPROF products are...

GPM, NOAA18, GMI,MHS Level 3 Monthly GPROF Profiling V03

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — 3GPROF products provide global gridded monthly/daily precipitation averages from multiple satellites that can be used for climate studies. The 3GPROF products are...

GPM, TRMM, GMI,TMI Level 3 Monthly GPROF Profiling VV03B

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — 3GPROF products provide global gridded monthly/daily precipitation averages from multiple satellites that can be used for climate studies. The 3GPROF products are...

Comparison between weather station data in south-eastern Italy and CRU precipitation datasets

Science.gov (United States)

Miglietta, D.

2009-04-01

Monthly precipitation data in south-eastern Italy from 1920 to 2005 have been extensively analyzed. Data were collected in almost 200 weather stations located 10-20km apart from each other and almost uniformly distributed in Puglia and Basilicata regions. Apart from few years around world war II, time series are mostly complete and allow a reliable reconstruction of climate variability in the considered region. Statistically significant trends have been studied by applying the Mann-Kendall test to annual, seasonal and monthly values. A comparison has been made between observations and precipitation data given by the Climate Research Unit (CRU), University of East Anglia, with both low (30') and high (10') space resolution grid. In particular, rainfall records, time series behaviors and annual cycles at each station have been compared to the corresponding CRU data. CRU time series show a large negative trend for winter since 1970. Trend is not significant if the whole 20th century is considered (both for the whole year and for winter only). This might be considered as an evidence of recent acceleration towards increasingly dry conditions. However correlation between CRU data and observations is not very high and large percent errors are present mainly in the mountains regions, where observations show a large annual cycle, with intense precipitation in winter, which is not present in CRU data. To identify trends, therefore observed data are needed, even at monthly scale. In particular observations confirm the overall trend, but also indicate large spatial variability, with locations where precipitation has even increased since 1970. Daily precipitation data coming from a subset of weather stations have also been studied for the same time period. The distributions of maximum annual rainfalls, wet spells and dry spells were analyzed for each station, together with their time series. The tools of statistical analysis of extremes have been used in order to evaluate

Kinetics modeling of precipitation with characteristic shape during post-implantation annealing

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kun-Dar Li

2015-11-01

Full Text Available In this study, we investigated the precipitation with characteristic shape in the microstructure during post-implantation annealing via a theoretical modeling approach. The processes of precipitates formation and evolution during phase separation were based on a nucleation and growth mechanism of atomic diffusion. Different stages of the precipitation, including the nucleation, growth and coalescence, were distinctly revealed in the numerical simulations. In addition, the influences of ion dose, temperature and crystallographic symmetry on the processes of faceted precipitation were also demonstrated. To comprehend the kinetic mechanism, the simulation results were further analyzed quantitatively by the Kolmogorov-Johnson-Mehl-Avrami (KJMA equation. The Avrami exponents obtained from the regression curves varied from 1.47 to 0.52 for different conditions. With the increase of ion dose and temperature, the nucleation and growth of precipitations were expedited in accordance with the shortened incubation time and the raised coefficient of growth rate. A miscellaneous shape of precipitates in various crystallographic symmetry systems could be simulated through this anisotropic model. From the analyses of the kinetics, more fundamental information about the nucleation and growth mechanism of faceted precipitation during post-implantation annealing was acquired for future application.

Kinetics of niobium carbide precipitation in ferrite

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gendt, D.

2001-01-01

The aim of this study is to develop a NbC precipitation modelling in ferrite. This theoretical study is motivated by the fact it considers a ternary system and focus on the concurrence of two different diffusion mechanisms. An experimental study with TEP, SANS and Vickers micro-hardening measurements allows a description of the NbC precipitation kinetics. The mean radius of the precipitates is characterized by TEM observations. To focus on the nucleation stage, we use the Tomographic Atom Probe that analyses, at an atomistic scale, the position of the solute atoms in the matrix. A first model based on the classical nucleation theory and the diffusion-limited growth describes the precipitation of spherical precipitates. To solve the set of equations, we use a numerical algorithm that furnishes an evaluation of the precipitated fraction, the mean radius and the whole size distribution of the particles. The parameters that are the interface energy, the solubility product and the diffusion coefficients are fitted with the data available in the literature and our experimental results. It allows a satisfactory agreement as regards to the simplicity of the model. Monte Carlo simulations are used to describe the evolution of a ternary alloy Fe-Nb-C on a cubic centred rigid lattice with vacancy and interstitial mechanisms. This is realized with an atomistic description of the atoms jumps and their related frequencies. The model parameters are fitted with phase diagrams and diffusion coefficients. For the sake of simplicity, we consider that the precipitation of NbC is totally coherent and we neglect any elastic strain effect. We can observe different kinetic paths: for low supersaturations, we find an expected precipitation of NbC but for higher supersaturations, the very fast diffusivity of carbon atoms conducts to the nucleation of iron carbide particles. We establish that the occurrence of this second phenomenon depends on the vacancy arrival kinetics and can be related

On the Precipitation and Precipitation Change in Alaska

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gerd Wendler

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Alaska observes very large differences in precipitation throughout the state; southeast Alaska experiences consistently wet conditions, while northern Arctic Alaska observes very dry conditions. The maximum mean annual precipitation of 5727 mm is observed in the southeastern panhandle at Little Port Arthur, while the minimum of 92 mm occurs on the North Slope at Kuparuk. Besides explaining these large differences due to geographic and orographic location, we discuss the changes in precipitation with time. Analyzing the 18 first-order National Weather Service stations, we found that the total average precipitation in the state increased by 17% over the last 67 years. The observed changes in precipitation are furthermore discussed as a function of the observed temperature increase of 2.1 °C, the mean temperature change of the 18 stations over the same period. This observed warming of Alaska is about three times the magnitude of the mean global warming and allows the air to hold more water vapor. Furthermore, we discuss the effect of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO, which has a strong influence on both the temperature and precipitation in Alaska.

Tritium concentration analysis in atmospheric precipitation in Serbia.

Science.gov (United States)

Janković, Marija M; Janković, Bojan Ž; Todorović, Dragana J; Ignjatović, Ljubiša M

2012-01-01

Tritium activity concentration were monitored in monthly precipitation at five locations in Serbia (Meteorological Station of Belgrade at Zeleno Brdo, Vinča Institute of Nuclear Sciences, Smederevska Palanka, Kraljevo and Niš) over 2005, using electrolytic enrichment and liquid scintillation counting. The obtained concentrations ranged from 3.36 to 127.02 TU. The activity values obtained in samples collected at Zeleno Brdo were lower or close to the minimum detectable activity (MDA), which has a value of 3.36 TU. Significantly higher tritium levels were obtained in samples collected in Vinča Institute of Nuclear Sciences compared with samples from the other investigated locations. Amount of precipitation were also recorded. A good linear correlation (r = 0.75) for Zeleno Brdo and VINS between their tritium activity was obtained. It was found that the value of the symmetrical index n (which indicates the magnitude of tritium content changes with time (months) through its second derivative) is the highest for Vinča Institute of Nuclear Sciences compared to other locations, which is in accordance with the fact that the highest concentrations of tritium were obtained in the samples from the cited place.

Optimization of precipitation conditions of thorium oxalate precipitate

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pazukhin, Eh.M.; Smirnova, E.A.; Krivokhatskij, A.S.; Pazukhina, Yu.L.; Kiselev, P.P.

1986-01-01

Thorium precipitation in the form of difficultly soluble oxalate has been investigated. The equation binding the concentration of metal with the nitric acid in the initial solution and quantity of a precipitator necessary for minimization of desired product losses is derived. The graphical solution of this equation for a case, when the oxalic acid with 0.78 mol/l concentration is the precipitator, is presented

An application of sample entropy to precipitation in Paraíba State, Brazil

Science.gov (United States)

Xavier, Sílvio Fernando Alves; da Silva Jale, Jader; Stosic, Tatijana; dos Santos, Carlos Antonio Costa; Singh, Vijay P.

2018-05-01

A climate system is characterized to be a complex non-linear system. In order to describe the complex characteristics of precipitation series in Paraíba State, Brazil, we aim the use of sample entropy, a kind of entropy-based algorithm, to evaluate the complexity of precipitation series. Sixty-nine meteorological stations are distributed over four macroregions: Zona da Mata, Agreste, Borborema, and Sertão. The results of the analysis show that intricacies of monthly average precipitation have differences in the macroregions. Sample entropy is able to reflect the dynamic change of precipitation series providing a new way to investigate complexity of hydrological series. The complexity exhibits areal variation of local water resource systems which can influence the basis for utilizing and developing resources in dry areas.

Quantitative estimation of orographic precipitation over the Himalayas by using TRMM/PR and a dense network of rain gauges

Science.gov (United States)

Yatagai, A.

2009-04-01

Precipitation Radar (PR) data acquired by the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) over 10 years of observation were used to show the monthly rainfall patterns over the Himalayas. To validate and adjust these patterns, we used a dense network of rain gauges to measure daily precipitation over Nepal, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Pakistan, India, Myanmar, and China. We then compared TRMM/PR and rain gauge data in 0.05-degree grid cells (an approximately 5.5-km mesh). Compared with the rain gauge observations, the PR systematically underestimated precipitation by 28-38% in summer (July-September).Significant correlation between TRMM/PR and RG data was found for all months, but the correlation is relatively low in winter. The relationship is investigated for different elevation zones, and the PR was found to underestimate RG data in most zones, except for certain zones in February (250-1000m), March (0-1000m), and April (0-1500m). Monthly PR climatology was adjusted on the basis of monthly regressions between the two sets of data and depicted.

Study of precipitation behaviour of Mo and Zr in nitric acid solution

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lin Cansheng; Wang Xiaoying; Zhang Chonghai

1992-01-01

The precipitation behaviour of Mo and Zr which depends on the concentrations of Mo, Zr, nitric acid and temperature is studied. Precipitation, post-precipitation and ultracentrifugation experiments are made at 100 deg C, 80 deg C, 60 deg C, 40 deg C and room temperatures in the range of 0.6-6.0 mol/1 nitric acid. The experimental feeds are made up of molybdenum labelled with 99 Mo, zirconium labelled with 95 Zr and nitric acid solution. The feed is allowed to stand at constant temperature for some time for the observation of precipitation behaviour. The filtered precipitate and ultracentrifuged liquid is to be measured with HP (Ge)-multichannel analyser in order to determine the content of Mo, Zr and their mole ration in the precipitate and to find out whether there is colloid in the liquid. The results show that the mixed solution of Mo and Zr can produce precipitate and post-precipitate in nitric acid. If the filtrated liquid is allowed to stand for some time, precipitate can be produced again, until the concentration of Mo and Zr in the feed is too low to form precipitate, such as 2.5 x 10 -3 mol/1. If the concentration of nitric acid is less than 4.0 mol/1, the precipitation is produced easily and more precipitate is formed. Precipitation is slower in solutions which are more than 4.0 mol/1 in HNO 3 . The mole-ratio of Mo to Zr in the precipitate is 2 to 1 and it is not dependent on that ratio in the system

Spatial and temporal analysis of drought in greece using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI)

Science.gov (United States)

Livada, I.; Assimakopoulos, V. D.

2007-07-01

In the present study the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) is used to detect drought events in spatial and temporal basis. Using monthly precipitation data from 23 stations well spread over Greece and for a period of 51 years, a classification of drought is performed, based on its intensity and duration. Results indicate that, mild and moderate droughts reduce from north to south and from west to east on the 3- and 6-months time scale, while for the class of severe drought, the frequencies in the southern part of Greece are higher than in the other parts of the country. Furthermore the frequency of occurrence of severe and extreme drought conditions is very low over the whole Greek territory on the 12-month running time scale. Finally SPI was compared to the “de Martonne aridity index (I)” and a satisfactory correlation between them was found.

Characteristics of people with self-reported stress-precipitated seizures.

Science.gov (United States)

Privitera, Michael; Walters, Michael; Lee, Ikjae; Polak, Emily; Fleck, Adrienne; Schwieterman, Donna; Haut, Sheryl R

2014-12-01

Stress is the most common patient-reported seizure precipitant. We aimed to determine mood and epilepsy characteristics of people who report stress-precipitated seizures. Sequential patients at a tertiary epilepsy center were surveyed about stress as a seizure precipitant. We asked whether acute (lasting minutes-hours) or chronic (lasting days-months) stress was a seizure precipitant, whether stress reduction had been tried, and what effect stress reduction had on seizure frequency. We collected information on antiepileptic drugs, history of depression and anxiety disorder, prior or current treatment for depression or anxiety, and scores on the Neurological Disorders Depression Inventory (NDDI-E) and Generalized Anxiety Disorders-7 (GAD-7) instruments, which are administered at every visit in our Epilepsy Center. We also asked whether respondents thought that they could predict their seizures to determine if stress as a seizure precipitant was correlated with seizure self-prediction. Two hundred sixty-six subjects were included: 219 endorsed stress as a seizure precipitant [STRESS (+)] and 47 did not [STRESS (-)]. Among STRESS (+) subjects, 85% endorsed chronic stress as a seizure precipitant, and 68% endorsed acute stress as a seizure precipitant. In STRESS (+) subjects, 57% had used some type of relaxation or stress reduction method (most commonly yoga, exercise and meditation), and, of those who tried, 88% thought that these methods improved seizures. Among STRESS (-) subjects, 25% had tried relaxation or stress reduction, and 71% thought that seizures improved. Although univariate analysis showed multiple associations with stress as a seizure precipitant, in the multivariable logistic regression, only the GAD-7 score was associated with STRESS (+) (OR = 1.18 [1.03-1.35], p = 0.017). Subjects who reported stress as a seizure precipitant were more likely to report an ability to self-predict seizures (p < 0.001). Stress-precipitated seizures are commonly reported

Estimating Climatological Bias Errors for the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP)

Science.gov (United States)

Adler, Robert; Gu, Guojun; Huffman, George

2012-01-01

A procedure is described to estimate bias errors for mean precipitation by using multiple estimates from different algorithms, satellite sources, and merged products. The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) monthly product is used as a base precipitation estimate, with other input products included when they are within +/- 50% of the GPCP estimates on a zonal-mean basis (ocean and land separately). The standard deviation s of the included products is then taken to be the estimated systematic, or bias, error. The results allow one to examine monthly climatologies and the annual climatology, producing maps of estimated bias errors, zonal-mean errors, and estimated errors over large areas such as ocean and land for both the tropics and the globe. For ocean areas, where there is the largest question as to absolute magnitude of precipitation, the analysis shows spatial variations in the estimated bias errors, indicating areas where one should have more or less confidence in the mean precipitation estimates. In the tropics, relative bias error estimates (s/m, where m is the mean precipitation) over the eastern Pacific Ocean are as large as 20%, as compared with 10%-15% in the western Pacific part of the ITCZ. An examination of latitudinal differences over ocean clearly shows an increase in estimated bias error at higher latitudes, reaching up to 50%. Over land, the error estimates also locate regions of potential problems in the tropics and larger cold-season errors at high latitudes that are due to snow. An empirical technique to area average the gridded errors (s) is described that allows one to make error estimates for arbitrary areas and for the tropics and the globe (land and ocean separately, and combined). Over the tropics this calculation leads to a relative error estimate for tropical land and ocean combined of 7%, which is considered to be an upper bound because of the lack of sign-of-the-error canceling when integrating over different areas with a

Statistical models to predict flows at monthly level in Salvajina

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gonzalez, Harold O

1994-01-01

It thinks about and models of lineal regression evaluate at monthly level that they allow to predict flows in Salvajina, with base in predictions variable, like the difference of pressure between Darwin and Tahiti, precipitation in Piendamo Cauca), temperature in Port Chicama (Peru) and pressure in Tahiti

Beryllium-7 and 210Pb atmospheric deposition measured in moss and dependence on cumulative precipitation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Krmar, M.; Mihailović, D.T.; Arsenić, I.; Radnović, D.; Pap, I.

2016-01-01

This paper focuses on analysis of the time series of 7 Be and 210 Pb activity measured in moss, and the amount, as well as duration of precipitation, to gain a better understanding of the possible relationships between airborne radionuclide deposition and precipitation. Here we consider whether the amount of these airborne radionuclides in moss samples is a cumulative measure of radionuclide deposition and decay, and a new approach for analyses of the relationships between precipitation and moss activity concentrations is suggested. Through these analyses it was shown that comparison of cumulative activity measured at one location using moss, normalized by values of cumulative amount or duration of precipitation, showed different regimes of airborne radionuclide deposition. - Graphical abstract: Correlation between cumulative activity of 7 Be and 210 Pb measured in moss samples normalized by the cumulative precipitation. - Highlights: • Use of mosses in measurement of airborne radionuclides deposition was investigated • Prior work indicated 7 Be and 210 Pb activities were not correlated with precipitation • This is unusual since radionuclides moss tissues depends on depositional fluxes. • A new method for study of 7 Be and 210 Pb depositional dynamics was developed • Different seasonal regimes of 7 Be deposition are more noticeable in new technique

Regionalization of precipitation characteristics in Iran's Lake Urmia basin

Science.gov (United States)

Fazel, Nasim; Berndtsson, Ronny; Uvo, Cintia Bertacchi; Madani, Kaveh; Kløve, Bjørn

2018-04-01

Lake Urmia in northwest Iran, once one of the largest hypersaline lakes in the world, has shrunk by almost 90% in area and 80% in volume during the last four decades. To improve the understanding of regional differences in water availability throughout the region and to refine the existing information on precipitation variability, this study investigated the spatial pattern of precipitation for the Lake Urmia basin. Daily rainfall time series from 122 precipitation stations with different record lengths were used to extract 15 statistical descriptors comprising 25th percentile, 75th percentile, and coefficient of variation for annual and seasonal total precipitation. Principal component analysis in association with cluster analysis identified three main homogeneous precipitation groups in the lake basin. The first sub-region (group 1) includes stations located in the center and southeast; the second sub-region (group 2) covers mostly northern and northeastern part of the basin, and the third sub-region (group 3) covers the western and southern edges of the basin. Results of principal component (PC) and clustering analyses showed that seasonal precipitation variation is the most important feature controlling the spatial pattern of precipitation in the lake basin. The 25th and 75th percentiles of winter and autumn are the most important variables controlling the spatial pattern of the first rotated principal component explaining about 32% of the total variance. Summer and spring precipitation variations are the most important variables in the second and third rotated principal components, respectively. Seasonal variation in precipitation amount and seasonality are explained by topography and influenced by the lake and westerly winds that are related to the strength of the North Atlantic Oscillation. Despite using incomplete time series with different lengths, the identified sub-regions are physically meaningful.

Nucleation during gibbsites precipitation with seeds from sodium aluminate solution processed under ultrasound

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

陈国辉; 陈启元; 尹周澜; 张斌

2004-01-01

The secondary nucleation during gibbsite precipitation with seeds from sodium aluminate solution processed by ultrasound was examined by particle size distribution(PSD) analyses. Experiments indicate that at low temperature(＜65 ℃ ) and with low frequency ultrasound, the precipitation efficiency and also the secondary nucleation can be improved. Solution processed by low frequency ultrasound has more nuclei than common liquor does at low temperature. At 55 ℃, precipitation efficiency can he improved by 5.31 %, and the effect promoted by low frequency ultrasound decreases with the increase of temperature.

Clouds, Aerosol, and Precipitation in the Marine Boundary Layer: An ARM Mobile Facility Deployment

Science.gov (United States)

Wood, Robert; Wyant, Matthew; Bretherton, Christopher S.; Remillard, Jasmine; Kollias, Pavlos; Fletcher, Jennifer; Stemmler, Jayson; de Szoeke, Simone; Yuter, Sandra; Miller, Matthew;

Natural gas monthly, August 1995

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1995-08-24

The Natural Gas Monthly (NGM) highlights activities, events, and analyses of interest to public and private sector organizations associated with the natural gas industry. Volume and price data are presented each month for natural gas production, distribution, consumption, and interstate pipeline activities. Producer-related activities and underground storage data are also reported. From time to time, the NGM features articles designed to assist readers in using and interpreting natural gas information. This month`s feature article is on US Natural Gas Imports and Exports 1994.

Topography and Data Mining Based Methods for Improving Satellite Precipitation in Mountainous Areas of China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ting Xia

2015-07-01

Full Text Available Topography is a significant factor influencing the spatial distribution of precipitation. This study developed a new methodology to evaluate and calibrate the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA products by merging geographic and topographic information. In the proposed method, firstly, the consistency rule was introduced to evaluate the fitness of satellite rainfall with measurements on the grids with and without ground gauges. Secondly, in order to improve the consistency rate of satellite rainfall, genetic programming was introduced to mine the relationship between the gauge rainfall and location, elevation and TMPA rainfall. The proof experiment and analysis for the mean annual satellite precipitation from 2001–2012, 3B43 (V7 of TMPA rainfall product, was carried out in eight mountainous areas of China. The result shows that the proposed method is significant and efficient both for the assessment and improvement of satellite precipitation. It is found that the satellite rainfall consistency rates in the gauged and ungauged grids are different in the study area. In addition, the mined correlation of location-elevation-TMPA rainfall can noticeably improve the satellite precipitation, both in the context of the new criterion of the consistency rate and the existing criteria such as Bias and RMSD. The proposed method is also efficient for correcting the monthly and mean monthly rainfall of 3B43 and 3B42RT.

Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) Climate Data Record (CDR), Version 1.3 (Daily)

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The GPCP Daily analysis is a companion to the GPCP Monthly analysis, and provides globally complete precipitation estimates at a spatial resolution of one degree...

Bias correction of daily satellite precipitation data using genetic algorithm

Science.gov (United States)

Pratama, A. W.; Buono, A.; Hidayat, R.; Harsa, H.

2018-05-01

Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) was producted by blending Satellite-only Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation (CHIRP) with Stasion observations data. The blending process was aimed to reduce bias of CHIRP. However, Biases of CHIRPS on statistical moment and quantil values were high during wet season over Java Island. This paper presented a bias correction scheme to adjust statistical moment of CHIRP using observation precipitation data. The scheme combined Genetic Algorithm and Nonlinear Power Transformation, the results was evaluated based on different season and different elevation level. The experiment results revealed that the scheme robustly reduced bias on variance around 100% reduction and leaded to reduction of first, and second quantile biases. However, bias on third quantile only reduced during dry months. Based on different level of elevation, the performance of bias correction process is only significantly different on skewness indicators.

GPM, F17,GMI,SSMI Level 3 Monthly GPROF Profiling VV03B

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — 3GPROF products provide global gridded monthly/daily precipitation averages from multiple satellites that can be used for climate studies. The 3GPROF products are...

GPM, NOAA19, GMI,MHS Level 3 Monthly GPROF Profiling VV03B

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — 3GPROF products provide global gridded monthly/daily precipitation averages from multiple satellites that can be used for climate studies. The 3GPROF products are...

Challenge and opportunities of space-based precipitation radar for spatio-temporal hydrology analysis in tropical maritime influenced catchment: Case study on the hilly tropical watershed of Peninsular Malaysia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mahmud, M R; Numata, S; Matsuyama, H; Hashim, M; Hosaka, T

2014-01-01

This paper highlights two critical issues regarding hilly watershed in Peninsular Malaysia; (1) current status of spatio-temporal condition of rain gauge based measurement, and (2) potential of space-based precipitation radar to study the rainfall dynamics. Two analyses were carried out represent each issue consecutively. First, the spatial distribution and efficiency of rain gauge in hilly watershed Peninsular Malaysia is evaluated with respect to the land use and elevation information using Geographical Information System (GIS) approach. Second, the spatial pattern of rainfall changes is analysed using the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite information. The spatial analysis revealed that the rain gauge distribution had sparse coverage on hilly watershed and possessed inadequate efficiency for effective spatial based assessment. Significant monthly rainfall changes identified by TRMM satellite on the upper part of the watershed had occurred occasionally in 1999, 2000, 2001, 2006, and 2009 went undetected by conventional rain gauge. This study informed the potential and opportunities of space-based precipitation radar to fill the gaps of knowledge on spatio-temporal rainfall patterns for hydrology and related fields in tropical region

Developing precipitation hardenable high entropy alloys

Science.gov (United States)

Gwalani, Bharat

High entropy alloys (HEAs) is a concept wherein alloys are constructed with five or more elements mixed in equal proportions; these are also known as multi-principle elements (MPEs) or complex concentrated alloys (CCAs). This PhD thesis dissertation presents research conducted to develop precipitation-hardenable high entropy alloys using a much-studied fcc-based equi-atomic quaternary alloy (CoCrFeNi). Minor additions of aluminium make the alloy amenable for precipitating ordered intermetallic phases in an fcc matrix. Aluminum also affects grain growth kinetics and Hall-Petch hardenability. The use of a combinatorial approach for assessing composition-microstructure-property relationships in high entropy alloys, or more broadly in complex concentrated alloys; using laser deposited compositionally graded AlxCrCuFeNi 2 (0 mechanically processed via conventional techniques. The phase stability and mechanical properties of these alloys have been investigated and will be presented. Additionally, the activation energy for grain growth as a function of Al content in these complex alloys has also been investigated. Change in fcc grain growth kinetic was studied as a function of aluminum; the apparent activation energy for grain growth increases by about three times going from Al0.1CoCrFeNi (3% Al (at%)) to Al0.3CoCrFeNi. (7% Al (at%)). Furthermore, Al addition leads to the precipitation of highly refined ordered L12 (gamma') and B2 precipitates in Al0.3CoCrFeNi. A detailed investigation of precipitation of the ordered phases in Al0.3CoCrFeNi and their thermal stability is done using atom probe tomography (APT), transmission electron microscopy (TEM) and Synchrotron X-ray in situ and ex situ analyses. The alloy strengthened via grain boundary strengthening following the Hall-Petch relationship offers a large increment of strength with small variation in grain size. Tensile strength of the Al0.3CoFeNi is increased by 50% on precipitation fine-scale gamma' precipitates

The Role of Precipitation Recycling in the Propagation and Intensification of Droughts in North America

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Herrera-Estrada, J. E.; Sheffield, J.; Martinez-Agudelo, J. A.; Dominguez, F.; Wood, E. F.

2017-12-01

Predicting droughts allows stakeholders to mitigate some of the negative impacts of these natural disasters. However, there are still large gaps of knowledge regarding the physical drivers of drought onset, development, and recovery. These gaps have limited our ability to predict some important droughts and to understand how they may be affected by climate change. One physical mechanism that has been linked to the evolution of droughts is precipitation recycling, but its role has not been quantified in detail. Here we use a precipitation recycling model that backtracks the spatial origins of precipitation using vertically integrated moisture fluxes and evapotranspiration data. This allows us to estimate the climatology of moisture sources and sinks, and identify from where moisture fails to arrive when a given region experiences a drought. ERA-Interim data is used to drive this precipitation recycling model from 1980 to 2016 throughout North America and its surrounding oceans. The climatological analysis shows that oceans contribute around 80% of the precipitation over North America during winter, while precipitation that originates from evapotranspiration over land reaches a relative contribution of 60% in the summer. Precipitation contributions from the Pacific Ocean were found to be significantly and positively correlated with ENSO and PDO indices. Furthermore, a regression analysis showed that dry soil moisture in the US Southwest reduces moisture exports to the US Midwest, which in turn can dry soil moisture in the US Midwest. Given that up to 13% of precipitation over the US Midwest was found to be locally recycled, there is a multiplier effect whereby a 10 mm/month reduction in precipitation imports into the region leads to an additional decrease of 0.8 mm/month (on average) from reduced local precipitation recycling, causing a drought to intensify. It was also found that during extensive droughts (e.g. 2011 in Texas and 2012 in the US Midwest

Rapid precipitation of silica (opal-A) disguises evidence of biogenicity in high-temperature geothermal deposits: Case study from Dagunguo hot spring, China

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Peng, Xiaotong; Jones, Brian

2012-06-01

Dagunguo Spring, located in the Tengchong geothermal area in the western part of Yunnan Province, China, is a very active spring with water temperatures of 78 to 97 °C and pH of 7.7 to 8.8. The vent pool, 5.6 m in diameter and up to 1.5 m deep, is lined with opal-A that was precipitated from the near-boiling spring waters. A glass suspended in the pool was coated with opal-A in two months and two PVC pipes that drained water from the pool in late 2010 became lined with opal-A precipitates in less than three months. The opal-A accumulated at rates of 0.5 to 0.75 mm/month in the spring pool and 2.5 to 3.5 mm/month in the PVC pipes. The opal-A precipitates, irrespective of where they developed, are formed primarily of silicified microbes and opal-A spheres along with minor amounts of native sulfur, detrital quartz, and clay (mainly kaolinite). The fabrics in these opal-A deposits were dictated largely by the growth patterns of the filamentous and rod-shaped microbes that dominate this low-diversity biota and the amount of opal-A that was precipitated around them. Many of the microbes were preserved as rapid opal-A was precipitated on and around them before the cells decayed. With continued precipitation, however, the microbes became quickly engulfed in the opal-A precipitates and morphological evidence of their presence was lost. In essence, the process that controls their preservation ultimately disguised them to the point where cannot be seen. Critically, this loss of morphological identity takes places even before opal-A starts its diagenetic transformation towards quartz.

Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis of Regional Precipitation Sequences Based on the CEEMDAN-WPT

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Liu, Dong; Cheng, Chen; Fu, Qiang; Liu, Chunlei; Li, Mo; Faiz, Muhammad Abrar; Li, Tianxiao; Khan, Muhammad Imran; Cui, Song

2018-03-01

In this paper, the complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with the adaptive noise (CEEMDAN) algorithm is introduced into the complexity research of precipitation systems to improve the traditional complexity measure method specific to the mode mixing of the Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) and incomplete decomposition of the ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD). We combined the CEEMDAN with the wavelet packet transform (WPT) and multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) to create the CEEMDAN-WPT-MFDFA, and used it to measure the complexity of the monthly precipitation sequence of 12 sub-regions in Harbin, Heilongjiang Province, China. The results show that there are significant differences in the monthly precipitation complexity of each sub-region in Harbin. The complexity of the northwest area of Harbin is the lowest and its predictability is the best. The complexity and predictability of the middle and Midwest areas of Harbin are about average. The complexity of the southeast area of Harbin is higher than that of the northwest, middle, and Midwest areas of Harbin and its predictability is worse. The complexity of Shuangcheng is the highest and its predictability is the worst of all the studied sub-regions. We used terrain and human activity as factors to analyze the causes of the complexity of the local precipitation. The results showed that the correlations between the precipitation complexity and terrain are obvious, and the correlations between the precipitation complexity and human influence factors vary. The distribution of the precipitation complexity in this area may be generated by the superposition effect of human activities and natural factors such as terrain, general atmospheric circulation, land and sea location, and ocean currents. To evaluate the stability of the algorithm, the CEEMDAN-WPT-MFDFA was compared with the equal probability coarse graining LZC algorithm, fuzzy entropy, and wavelet entropy. The results show

Simulation of a persistent medium-term precipitation event over the western Iberian Peninsula

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S. C. Pereira

2013-10-01

Full Text Available This study evaluated the performance of the WRF-ARW (Weather Research and Forecasting with Advanced Research weather prediction model in simulating the spatial and temporal patterns of an extreme rainfall period over a complex orographic region in north-central Portugal. The analysis was performed during the rainy season and, more specifically, the month of December 2009. In this period, the region of interest was under the influence of a sequential passage of low-pressure systems associated with frontal surfaces. These synoptic weather patterns were responsible for long periods of rainfall, resulting in a high monthly precipitation. The WRF model results during the study period were furthermore evaluated with the specific objective to complement gaps in the precipitation recordings of a reference meteorological station (located in Pousadas, the data of which are fundamental for hydrological studies in nearby experimental catchments. Three distinct WRF model runs were forced with initial fields and boundary conditions obtained from a global domain model: (1 a reference experiment with no nudging (RunRef; (2 observational nudging for a specific location, i.e. the above-mentioned Pousadas reference station (RunObsN; and (3 nudging to the analysed field (RunGridN. Model performance was evaluated, using several statistical parameters, against a dataset of 27 rainfall stations that were grouped by elevation. The three model runs had similar performances, even though RunGridN resulted in a slight improvement. Regarding the other two experiments, this improvement justifies its use for complementing the surface measurements at the Pousadas reference station. Overall model accuracy, expressed in root mean square error (RMSE, of the three runs was comparable for the stations of the different elevations classes. Even so, it was slightly better for stations in the lowlands than the highlands. Furthermore, model predictions tended to be less accurate for

Comparing Evaporative Sources of Terrestrial Precipitation and Their Extremes in MERRA Using Relative Entropy

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Dirmeyer, Paul A.; Wei, Jiangfeng; Bosilovich, Michael G.; Mocko, David M.

2014-01-01

A quasi-isentropic back trajectory scheme is applied to output from the Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications and a land-only replay with corrected precipitation to estimate surface evaporative sources of moisture supplying precipitation over every ice-free land location for the period 1979-2005. The evaporative source patterns for any location and time period are effectively two dimensional probability distributions. As such, the evaporative sources for extreme situations like droughts or wet intervals can be compared to the corresponding climatological distributions using the method of relative entropy. Significant differences are found to be common and widespread for droughts, but not wet periods, when monthly data are examined. At pentad temporal resolution, which is more able to isolate floods and situations of atmospheric rivers, values of relative entropy over North America are typically 50-400 larger than at monthly time scales. Significant differences suggest that moisture transport may be the key to precipitation extremes. Where evaporative sources do not change significantly, it implies other local causes may underlie the extreme events.

Pulse frequency and soil-litter mixing alter the control of cumulative precipitation over litter decomposition.

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Joly, François-Xavier; Kurupas, Kelsey L; Throop, Heather L

2017-09-01

Macroclimate has traditionally been considered the predominant driver of litter decomposition. However, in drylands, cumulative monthly or annual precipitation typically fails to predict decomposition. In these systems, the windows of opportunity for decomposer activity may rather depend on the precipitation frequency and local factors affecting litter desiccation, such as soil-litter mixing. We used a full-factorial microcosm experiment to disentangle the relative importance of cumulative precipitation, pulse frequency, and soil-litter mixing on litter decomposition. Decomposition, measured as litter carbon loss, saturated with increasing cumulative precipitation when pulses were large and infrequent, suggesting that litter moisture no longer increased and/or microbial activity was no longer limited by water availability above a certain pulse size. More frequent precipitation pulses led to increased decomposition at high levels of cumulative precipitation. Soil-litter mixing consistently increased decomposition, with greatest relative increase (+194%) under the driest conditions. Collectively, our results highlight the need to consider precipitation at finer temporal scale and incorporate soil-litter mixing as key driver of decomposition in drylands. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Properties of Extreme Precipitation and Their Uncertainties in 3-year GPM Precipitation Radar Data

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, N.; Liu, C.

2017-12-01

Extreme high precipitation rates are often related to flash floods and have devastating impacts on human society and the environments. To better understand these rare events, 3-year Precipitation Features (PFs) are defined by grouping the contiguous areas with nonzero near-surface precipitation derived using Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Ku band Precipitation Radar (KuPR). The properties of PFs with extreme precipitation rates greater than 20, 50, 100 mm/hr, such as the geographical distribution, volumetric precipitation contribution, seasonal and diurnal variations, are examined. In addition to the large seasonal and regional variations, the rare extreme precipitation rates often have a larger contribution to the local total precipitation. Extreme precipitation rates occur more often over land than over ocean. The challenges in the retrieval of extreme precipitation might be from the attenuation correction and large uncertainties in the Z-R relationships from near-surface radar reflectivity to precipitation rates. These potential uncertainties are examined by using collocated ground based radar reflectivity and precipitation retrievals.

Estimating the Seasonal Importance of Precipitation to Plant Source Water over Time and Space with Water Isotopes

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Nelson, D. B.; Kahmen, A.

2017-12-01

The stable isotopic composition of hydrogen and oxygen are physical properties of water molecules that can carry information on their sources or transport histories. This provides a useful tool for assessing the importance of rainfall at different times of the year for plant growth, provided that rainwater values vary over time and that waters do not partially evaporate after deposition. We tested the viability of this approach using data from samples collected at nineteen sites throughout Europe at monthly intervals over two consecutive growing seasons in 2014 and 2015. We compared isotope measurements of plant xylem water with soil water from multiple depths, and measured and modeled precipitation isotope values. Paired analyses of oxygen and hydrogen isotope values were used to screen out a limited number of water samples that were influenced by evaporation, with the majority of all water samples indicating meteoric sources. The isotopic composition of soil and xylem waters varied over the course of an individual growing season, with many trending towards more enriched values, suggesting integration of the plant-relevant water pool at a timescale shorter than the annual mean. We then quantified how soil water residence times varied at each site by calculating the interval between measured xylem water and the most recently preceding match in modeled precipitation isotope values. Results suggest a generally increasing interval between rainfall and plant uptake throughout each year, with source water corresponding to dates in the spring, likely reflecting a combination of spring rain, and mixing with winter and summer precipitation. The seasonally evolving spatial distribution of source water-precipitation lag values was then modeled as a function of location and climatology to develop continental-scale predictions. This spatial portrait of the average date for filling the plant source water pool provides insights on the seasonal importance of rainfall for plant

A Two-year Record of Daily Rainfall Isotopes from Fiji: Implications for Reconstructing Precipitation from Speleothem δ18O

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Brett, M.; Mattey, D.; Stephens, M.

2015-12-01

Oxygen isotopes in speleothem provide opportunities to construct precisely dated records of palaeoclimate variability, underpinned by an understanding of both the regional climate and local controls on isotopes in rainfall and groundwater. For tropical islands, a potential means to reconstruct past rainfall variability is to exploit the generally high correlation between rainfall amount and δ18O: the 'amount effect'. The GNIP program provides δ18O data at monthly resolution for several tropical Pacific islands but there are few data for precipitation isotopes at daily resolution, for investigating the amount effect over different timescales in a tropical maritime setting. Timescales are important since meteoric water feeding a speleothem has undergone storage and mixing in the aquifer system and understanding how the isotope amount effect is preserved in aquifer recharge has fundamental implications on the interpretation of speleothem δ18O in terms of palaeo-precipitation. The islands of Fiji host speleothem caves. Seasonal precipitation is related to the movement of the South Pacific Convergence Zone, and interannual variations in rainfall are coupled to ENSO behaviour. Individual rainfall events are stratiform or convective, with proximal moisture sources. We have daily resolution isotope data for rainfall collected at the University of the South Pacific in Suva, covering every rain event in 2012 and 2013. δ18O varies between -18‰ and +3‰ with the annual weighted averages at -7.6‰ and -6.8‰ respectively, while total recorded rainfall amount is similar in both years. We shall present analysis of our data compared with GNIP, meteorological data and back trajectory analyses to demonstrate the nature of the relationship between rainfall amount and isotopic signatures over this short timescale. Comparison with GNIP data for 2012-13 will shed light on the origin of the amount effect at monthly and seasonal timescales in convective, maritime, tropical

Precipitation kinetics of a continuous precipitator, with application to the precipitation of ammonium polyuranate

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hoyt, R.C.

1978-04-01

A mathematical model describing the kinetics of continuous precipitation was developed which accounts for crystal nucleation, crystal growth, primary coagulation, and secondary coagulation. Population density distributions, average particle sizes, dominant particle sizes, and suspension density fractions of the crystallites, primary agglomerates, and secondary agglomerates leaving the continuous precipitator can be determined. This kinetic model was applied to the continuous precipitation of ammonium polyuranate, which consists of: (1) elementary crystals, (2) clusters or primary coagulated particles, and (3) agglomerates or secondary coagulated particles. The crystallites are thin, submicron, hexagonal platelets. The clusters had an upper size limit of about 7 μ in diameter and contained numerous small voids (less than 0.3 μm) due to the packing of the crystallites. The agglomerates had an upper size limit of about 40 μm in diameter and contained large voids (approximately 1 μm). The particle size distribution and particle structure of the ammonium polyuranate precipitate can be controlled through proper regulation of the precipitation conditions. The ratio of clusters to agglomerates can be best controlled through the uranium concentration, and the cohesiveness or internal bonding strength of the particles can be controlled with the ammonium to uranium reacting feed mole ratio. These two conditions, in conjunction with the residence time, will determine the nucleation rates, growth rates, and size distributions of the particles leaving the continuous precipitator. With proper control of these physical particle characteristics, the use of pore formers, ball-milling, and powder blending can probably be eliminated from the nuclear fuel fabrication process, substantially reducing the cost

Precipitation kinetics of a continuous precipitator, with application to the precipitation of ammonium polyuranate

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hoyt, R.C.

1978-04-01

A mathematical model describing the kinetics of continuous precipitation was developed which accounts for crystal nucleation, crystal growth, primary coagulation, and secondary coagulation. Population density distributions, average particle sizes, dominant particle sizes, and suspension density fractions of the crystallites, primary agglomerates, and secondary agglomerates leaving the continuous precipitator can be determined. This kinetic model was applied to the continuous precipitation of ammonium polyuranate, which consists of: (1) elementary crystals, (2) clusters or primary coagulated particles, and (3) agglomerates or secondary coagulated particles. The crystallites are thin, submicron, hexagonal platelets. The clusters had an upper size limit of about 7 ..mu.. in diameter and contained numerous small voids (less than 0.3 ..mu..m) due to the packing of the crystallites. The agglomerates had an upper size limit of about 40 ..mu..m in diameter and contained large voids (approximately 1 ..mu..m). The particle size distribution and particle structure of the ammonium polyuranate precipitate can be controlled through proper regulation of the precipitation conditions. The ratio of clusters to agglomerates can be best controlled through the uranium concentration, and the cohesiveness or internal bonding strength of the particles can be controlled with the ammonium to uranium reacting feed mole ratio. These two conditions, in conjunction with the residence time, will determine the nucleation rates, growth rates, and size distributions of the particles leaving the continuous precipitator. With proper control of these physical particle characteristics, the use of pore formers, ball-milling, and powder blending can probably be eliminated from the nuclear fuel fabrication process, substantially reducing the cost.

Spatiotemporal analysis the precipitation extremes affecting rice yield in Jiangsu province, southeast China

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Huang, Jin; Islam, A. R. M. Towfiqul; Zhang, Fangmin; Hu, Zhenghua

2017-10-01

With the increasing risk of meteorological disasters, it is of great importance to analyze the spatiotemporal changes of precipitation extremes and its possible impact on rice productivity, especially in Jiangsu province, southeast China. In this study, we explored the relationships between rice yield and extreme precipitation indices using Mann-Kendall trend test, Pettitt's test, and K-means clustering methods. This study used 10 extreme precipitation indices of the rice growing season (May to October) based on the daily precipitation records and rice yield data at 52 meteorological stations during 1961-2012 in Jiangsu province. The main findings were as follows: (1) correlation results indicated that precipitation extremes occurred in the months of July, August, and October, which had noticeable adverse effects on rice yield; (2) the maximum 7-day precipitation of July and the number of rainy days of August and October should be considered as three key indicators for the precipitation-induced rice meteorological disasters; and (3) most of the stations showed an increasing trends for the maximum 7-day precipitation of July and the number of rainy days of August, while the number of rainy days of October in all the stations demonstrated a decreasing trend. Moreover, Jiangsu province could be divided into two major sub-regions such as north and south areas with different temporal variations in the three key indicators.

Spatiotemporal analysis the precipitation extremes affecting rice yield in Jiangsu province, southeast China.

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Jin; Islam, A R M Towfiqul; Zhang, Fangmin; Hu, Zhenghua

2017-10-01

With the increasing risk of meteorological disasters, it is of great importance to analyze the spatiotemporal changes of precipitation extremes and its possible impact on rice productivity, especially in Jiangsu province, southeast China. In this study, we explored the relationships between rice yield and extreme precipitation indices using Mann-Kendall trend test, Pettitt's test, and K-means clustering methods. This study used 10 extreme precipitation indices of the rice growing season (May to October) based on the daily precipitation records and rice yield data at 52 meteorological stations during 1961-2012 in Jiangsu province. The main findings were as follows: (1) correlation results indicated that precipitation extremes occurred in the months of July, August, and October, which had noticeable adverse effects on rice yield; (2) the maximum 7-day precipitation of July and the number of rainy days of August and October should be considered as three key indicators for the precipitation-induced rice meteorological disasters; and (3) most of the stations showed an increasing trends for the maximum 7-day precipitation of July and the number of rainy days of August, while the number of rainy days of October in all the stations demonstrated a decreasing trend. Moreover, Jiangsu province could be divided into two major sub-regions such as north and south areas with different temporal variations in the three key indicators.

Analysis of the extent of interphase precipitation in V-HSLA steels through in-situ characterization of the γ/α transformation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Clark, Samuel; Janik, Vit; Rijkenberg, Arjan; Sridhar, Seetharaman

2016-01-01

In-situ characterization techniques have been applied to elucidate the influence of γ/α transformation upon the extent of interphase precipitation in a low-carbon, vanadium-HSLA steel. Electron Back-scattered diffraction analyses of the γ/α orientation relationship with continuous cooling at 2 and 10 K/s suggest that the proportion of ferrite likely to hold interphase precipitation varies little with cooling rate. However, TEM analyses show that the interphase precipitation refines with increasing cooling rate in this cooling range. With cooling rates in excess of 20 K/s, interphase precipitation is increasingly suppressed due to the increasingly diffusional-displacive nature of the Widmanstätten γ/α transformation that is activated. The present study illustrates that the extent and dimensions of interphase precipitation can be controlled through controlled cooling. - Highlights: • In-situ characterization of γ/α transformation • EBSD characterization of γ/α transformation orientation relationship • Extent of interphase precipitation can be controlled through controlled cooling

Evaluation of NASA's MERRA Precipitation Product in Reproducing the Observed Trend and Distribution of Extreme Precipitation Events in the United States

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Ashouri, Hamed; Sorooshian, Soroosh; Hsu, Kuo-Lin; Bosilovich, Michael G.; Lee, Jaechoul; Wehner, Michael F.; Collow, Allison

2016-01-01

This study evaluates the performance of NASA's Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) precipitation product in reproducing the trend and distribution of extreme precipitation events. Utilizing the extreme value theory, time-invariant and time-variant extreme value distributions are developed to model the trends and changes in the patterns of extreme precipitation events over the contiguous United States during 1979-2010. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) U.S.Unified gridded observation data are used as the observational dataset. The CPC analysis shows that the eastern and western parts of the United States are experiencing positive and negative trends in annual maxima, respectively. The continental-scale patterns of change found in MERRA seem to reasonably mirror the observed patterns of change found in CPC. This is not previously expected, given the difficulty in constraining precipitation in reanalysis products. MERRA tends to overestimate the frequency at which the 99th percentile of precipitation is exceeded because this threshold tends to be lower in MERRA, making it easier to be exceeded. This feature is dominant during the summer months. MERRA tends to reproduce spatial patterns of the scale and location parameters of the generalized extreme value and generalized Pareto distributions. However, MERRA underestimates these parameters, particularly over the Gulf Coast states, leading to lower magnitudes in extreme precipitation events. Two issues in MERRA are identified: 1) MERRA shows a spurious negative trend in Nebraska and Kansas, which is most likely related to the changes in the satellite observing system over time that has apparently affected the water cycle in the central United States, and 2) the patterns of positive trend over the Gulf Coast states and along the East Coast seem to be correlated with the tropical cyclones in these regions. The analysis of the trends in the seasonal precipitation extremes indicates that

Antecedent precipitation index determined from CST estimates of rainfall

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Martin, David W.

1992-01-01

This paper deals with an experimental calculation of a satellite-based antecedent precipitation index (API). The index is also derived from daily rain images produced from infrared images using an improved version of GSFC's Convective/Stratiform Technique (CST). API is a measure of soil moisture, and is based on the notion that the amount of moisture in the soil at a given time is related to precipitation at earlier times. Four different CST programs as well as the Geostationary Operational Enviroment Satellite (GOES) Precipitation Index developed by Arkin in 1979 are compared to experimental results, for the Mississippi Valley during the month of July. Rain images are shown for the best CST code and the ARK program. Comparisons are made as to the accuracy and detail of the results for the two codes. This project demonstrates the feasibility of running the CST on a synoptic scale. The Mississippi Valley case is well suited for testing the feasibility of monitoring soil moisture by means of CST. Preliminary comparisons of CST and ARK indicate significant differences in estimates of rain amount and distribution.

Preparation and Sintering Behaviour of Alumina Powder by Ammonia Precipitation Method

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Wang Liuyan

2017-01-01

Full Text Available In this paper, alumina precursor was prepared by the ammonia precipitation method which used Al (NO3 3 9H2O as aluminum source and NH4OH as a precipitator, adding a small amount of PEG4000 as the surface active agent. Finally γ-Al2O3 was obtained at 900° for 2h. The stable alumina crystal form of α-Al2O3 was got at 1100° for 2h. The influence of precipitation agent on the precursor was studied by means of TG / DTA and Tem, XRD etc. The effects of the synthesis temperature and time on the phase composition and morphology of the alumina powder were also analysed.

A Bayesian kriging approach for blending satellite and ground precipitation observations

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Verdin, Andrew P.; Rajagopalan, Balaji; Kleiber, William; Funk, Christopher C.

2015-01-01

Drought and flood management practices require accurate estimates of precipitation. Gauge observations, however, are often sparse in regions with complicated terrain, clustered in valleys, and of poor quality. Consequently, the spatial extent of wet events is poorly represented. Satellite-derived precipitation data are an attractive alternative, though they tend to underestimate the magnitude of wet events due to their dependency on retrieval algorithms and the indirect relationship between satellite infrared observations and precipitation intensities. Here we offer a Bayesian kriging approach for blending precipitation gauge data and the Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation satellite-derived precipitation estimates for Central America, Colombia, and Venezuela. First, the gauge observations are modeled as a linear function of satellite-derived estimates and any number of other variables—for this research we include elevation. Prior distributions are defined for all model parameters and the posterior distributions are obtained simultaneously via Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling. The posterior distributions of these parameters are required for spatial estimation, and thus are obtained prior to implementing the spatial kriging model. This functional framework is applied to model parameters obtained by sampling from the posterior distributions, and the residuals of the linear model are subject to a spatial kriging model. Consequently, the posterior distributions and uncertainties of the blended precipitation estimates are obtained. We demonstrate this method by applying it to pentadal and monthly total precipitation fields during 2009. The model's performance and its inherent ability to capture wet events are investigated. We show that this blending method significantly improves upon the satellite-derived estimates and is also competitive in its ability to represent wet events. This procedure also provides a means to estimate a full conditional distribution

The effect of precipitation on contaminant dissolution and transport: Analytic solutions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Light, W.B.; Chambre, P.L.; Pigford, T.H.; Lee, W.W.L.

1988-09-01

We analysed the effect of precipitation on the dissolution and transport rates of a nondecaying contaminant. Precipitation near the waste surface can have a profound effect on dissolution and transport rates. The mass-transfer rate at the waste surface is controlled by the solid-liquid reaction rate to an extent determined by the modified reaction-rate modulus, α. At later times extending to steady state, the mass-transfer rate depends on the location of the precipitation front r/sub p/ and on the solubility ratio C/sub o//C/sub p/. A precipitation front very near the waste surface can change the dissolution mechanism from solubility-diffusion-controlled to chemical-reaction-rate controlled. Precipitation limits the concentration of the contaminant at r > r/sub p/ to C/sub p/, steepening the concentration gradient for dissolution on the waste package side of the front and flattening the gradient for transport in the region outside the front. This increases the rate of contaminant transport from the waste to the front while decreasing the rate of transport away from the front, when compared to the situation without precipitation. The difference in the transport rates at the front is the rate of precipitation. For large changes in solubility, most of the contaminant is immobilized by precipitation, as was observed in a parallel study. The effect of a precipitation front located nearby in surrounding rock is to increase the release rate at the waste surface/rock interface. The increase in release rate at the waste surface is greater the closer the precipitation and the larger the ratio C/sub o//C/sub p/, also observed by others. The release rates of other waste constituents that dissolve congruently with the solubility-controlling matrix can be increased by a local high-solubility region between the waste surface and the precipitation front. 10 refs., 5 figs

Incidence and evolution of subretinal precipitates in optic disc pit maculopathy.

Science.gov (United States)

Chatziralli, Irini; Theodossiadis, George; Brouzas, Dimitrios; Theodossiadis, Panagiotis

2017-06-26

To study the evolution of subretinal precipitates coexistent with optic disc pit (ODP) maculopathy from their appearance at baseline examination until their absorption after successful treatment. Participants in this retrospective, multicenter study were 42 patients with ODP maculopathy, in whom complete ocular examination was performed, including visual acuity (VA) measurement, slit-lamp examination, color or red-free fundus photography, and optical coherence tomography at baseline after surgical treatment. Out of 42 cases, 17 (40.5%) cases of ODP maculopathy, which were examined between 2002 and 2015, were found to have subretinal precipitates associated with multilayer fluid accumulation at baseline. Precipitates were located at the outer part of the photoreceptor layer and remained for 3-6 months after successful treatment and absorption of subretinal fluid. The mean VA was 0.99 ± 0.21 logMAR at baseline and improved to 0.54 ± 0.25 logMAR at the final examination. Macular precipitates in association with signs of disease chronicity, such as multilayer fluid accumulation, became evident at baseline examination. Precipitates' disappearance in 15 out of 17 cases coincided with the absorption of subretinal fluid. The relative low VA at baseline probably could be attributed to the chronicity of the disease.

Dynamical response of Mediterranean precipitation to greenhouse gases and aerosols

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T. Tang

2018-06-01

Full Text Available Atmospheric aerosols and greenhouse gases affect cloud properties, radiative balance and, thus, the hydrological cycle. Observations show that precipitation has decreased in the Mediterranean since the beginning of the 20th century, and many studies have investigated possible mechanisms. So far, however, the effects of aerosol forcing on Mediterranean precipitation remain largely unknown. Here we compare the modeled dynamical response of Mediterranean precipitation to individual forcing agents in a set of global climate models (GCMs. Our analyses show that both greenhouse gases and aerosols can cause drying in the Mediterranean and that precipitation is more sensitive to black carbon (BC forcing than to well-mixed greenhouse gases (WMGHGs or sulfate aerosol. In addition to local heating, BC appears to reduce precipitation by causing an enhanced positive sea level pressure (SLP pattern similar to the North Atlantic Oscillation–Arctic Oscillation, characterized by higher SLP at midlatitudes and lower SLP at high latitudes. WMGHGs cause a similar SLP change, and both are associated with a northward diversion of the jet stream and storm tracks, reducing precipitation in the Mediterranean while increasing precipitation in northern Europe. Though the applied forcings were much larger, if forcings are scaled to those of the historical period of 1901–2010, roughly one-third (31±17 % of the precipitation decrease would be attributable to global BC forcing with the remainder largely attributable to WMGHGs, whereas global scattering sulfate aerosols would have negligible impacts. Aerosol–cloud interactions appear to have minimal impacts on Mediterranean precipitation in these models, at least in part because many simulations did not fully include such processes; these merit further study. The findings from this study suggest that future BC and WMGHG emissions may significantly affect regional water resources, agricultural practices, ecosystems and

Benchmarking a geostatistical procedure for the homogenisation of annual precipitation series

Science.gov (United States)

Caineta, Júlio; Ribeiro, Sara; Henriques, Roberto; Soares, Amílcar; Costa, Ana Cristina

2014-05-01

The European project COST Action ES0601, Advances in homogenisation methods of climate series: an integrated approach (HOME), has brought to attention the importance of establishing reliable homogenisation methods for climate data. In order to achieve that, a benchmark data set, containing monthly and daily temperature and precipitation data, was created to be used as a comparison basis for the effectiveness of those methods. Several contributions were submitted and evaluated by a number of performance metrics, validating the results against realistic inhomogeneous data. HOME also led to the development of new homogenisation software packages, which included feedback and lessons learned during the project. Preliminary studies have suggested a geostatistical stochastic approach, which uses Direct Sequential Simulation (DSS), as a promising methodology for the homogenisation of precipitation data series. Based on the spatial and temporal correlation between the neighbouring stations, DSS calculates local probability density functions at a candidate station to detect inhomogeneities. The purpose of the current study is to test and compare this geostatistical approach with the methods previously presented in the HOME project, using surrogate precipitation series from the HOME benchmark data set. The benchmark data set contains monthly precipitation surrogate series, from which annual precipitation data series were derived. These annual precipitation series were subject to exploratory analysis and to a thorough variography study. The geostatistical approach was then applied to the data set, based on different scenarios for the spatial continuity. Implementing this procedure also promoted the development of a computer program that aims to assist on the homogenisation of climate data, while minimising user interaction. Finally, in order to compare the effectiveness of this methodology with the homogenisation methods submitted during the HOME project, the obtained results

Summer precipitation influences the stable oxygen and carbon isotopic composition of tree-ring cellulose in Pinus ponderosa.

Science.gov (United States)

Roden, John S; Ehleringer, James R

2007-04-01

The carbon and oxygen isotopic composition of tree-ring cellulose was examined in ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Dougl.) trees in the western USA to study seasonal patterns of precipitation inputs. Two sites (California and Oregon) had minimal summer rainfall inputs, whereas a third site (Arizona) received as much as 70% of its annual precipitation during the summer months (North American monsoon). For the Arizona site, both the delta(18)O and delta(13)C values of latewood cellulose increased as the fraction of annual precipitation occurring in the summer (July through September) increased. There were no trends in latewood cellulose delta(18)O with the absolute amount of summer rain at any site. The delta(13)C composition of latewood cellulose declined with increasing total water year precipitation for all sites. Years with below-average total precipitation tended to have a higher proportion of their annual water inputs during the summer months. Relative humidity was negatively correlated with latewood cellulose delta(13)C at all sites. Trees at the Arizona site produced latewood cellulose that was significantly more enriched in (18)O compared with trees at the Oregon or California site, implying a greater reliance on an (18)O-enriched water source. Thus, tree-ring records of cellulose delta(18)O and delta(13)C may provide useful proxy information about seasonal precipitation inputs and the variability and intensity of the North American monsoon.

Functional Connectivity of Precipitation Networks in the Brazilian Rainforest-Savanna Transition Zone

Science.gov (United States)

Adera, S.; Larsen, L.; Levy, M. C.; Thompson, S. E.

2016-12-01

In the Brazilian rainforest-savanna transition zone, vegetation change has the potential to significantly affect precipitation patterns. Deforestation, in particular, can affect precipitation patterns by increasing land surface albedo, increasing aerosol loading to the atmosphere, changing land surface roughness, and reducing transpiration. Understanding land surface-precipitation couplings in this region is important not only for sustaining Amazon and Cerrado ecosystems, but also for cattle ranching and agriculture, hydropower generation, and drinking water management. Simulations suggest complex, scale-dependent interactions between precipitation and land cover. For example, the size and distribution of deforested patches has been found to affect precipitation patterns. We take an empirical approach to ask: (1) what are the dominant spatial and temporal length scales of precipitation coupling in the Brazilian rainforest-savanna transition zone? (2) How do these length scales change over time? (3) How does the connectivity of precipitation change over time? The answers to these questions will help address fundamental questions about the impacts of deforestation on precipitation. We use rain gauge data from 1100 rain gauges intermittently covering the period 1980 - 2013, a period of intensive land cover change in the region. The dominant spatial and temporal length scales of precipitation coupling are resolved using transfer entropy, a metric from information theory. Connectivity of the emergent network of couplings is quantified using network statistics. Analyses using transfer entropy and network statistics reveal the spatial and temporal interdependencies of rainfall events occurring in different parts of the study domain.

Changes of chemistry of precipitation on the area affected by imissions from hard coal power plant in the years 1977-1994

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zablocki, Z.

1996-01-01

The changes of precipitation chemistry was studied on 9 sites in the distance 0.2-13.5 km from Dolna Odra power plant during the years 1977-1994. The results of long-term studies of changes of precipitation reaction and amounts of sulfur in precipitation on the area were shown as chronotoposequences. The results indicated on some positive changes in chemistry of precipitation in 1991-1994 years as compared to the period of 1986-1990 which manifested as decrease as yearly averages of amounts of sulfur and nitrate-nitrogen in precipitation and decrease of percentage of monthly measurements of precipitation with very acid reaction. (author). 11 refs, 2 figs, 1 tab

Natural gas monthly, May 1997

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1997-05-01

The Natural Gas Monthly highlights activities, events, and analyses of interest to public and private sector organizations associated with the natural gas industry. Volume and price data are presented each month for natural gas production, distribution, consumption, and interstate pipeline activities. Producer-related activities and underground storage data are also reported. From time to time, the NGM features articles designed to assist readers in using and interpreting natural gas information. The feature article this month is ``Restructuring energy industries: Lessons from natural gas.`` 6 figs., 26 tabs.

Precipitous Birth

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jennifer Yee

2017-09-01

Full Text Available Audience: This scenario was developed to educate emergency medicine residents on the management of a precipitous birth in the emergency department (ED. The case is also appropriate for teaching of medical students and advanced practice providers, as well as reviewing the principles of crisis resource management, teamwork, and communication. Introduction: Patients with precipitous birth require providers to manage two patients simultaneously with limited time and resources. Crisis resource management skills will be tested once baby is delivered, and the neonate will require assessment for potential neonatal resuscitation. Objectives: At the conclusion of the simulation session, learners will be able to manage women who have precipitous deliveries, as well as perform neonatal assessment and management. Method: This session was conducted using high-fidelity simulation, followed by a debriefing session and lecture on precipitous birth management and neonatal evaluation.

Evaluation of high-resolution satellite precipitation products with surface rain gauge observations from Laohahe Basin in northern China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shan-hu Jiang

2010-12-01

Full Text Available Three high-resolution satellite precipitation products, the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM standard precipitation products 3B42V6 and 3B42RT and the Climate Precipitation Center's (CPC morphing technique precipitation product (CMORPH, were evaluated against surface rain gauge observations from the Laohahe Basin in northern China. Widely used statistical validation indices and categorical statistics were adopted. The evaluations were performed at multiple time scales, ranging from daily to yearly, for the years from 2003 to 2008. The results show that all three satellite precipitation products perform very well in detecting the occurrence of precipitation events, but there are some different biases in the amount of precipitation. 3B42V6, which has a bias of 21%, fits best with the surface rain gauge observations at both daily and monthly scales, while the biases of 3B42RT and CMORPH, with values of 81% and 67%, respectively, are much higher than a normal receivable threshold. The quality of the satellite precipitation products also shows monthly and yearly variation: 3B42RT has a large positive bias in the cold season from September to April, while CMORPH has a large positive bias in the warm season from May to August, and they all attained their best values in 2006 (with 10%, 50%, and −5% biases for 3B42V6, 3B42RT, and CMORPH, respectively. Our evaluation shows that, for the Laohahe Basin, 3B42V6 has the best correspondence with the surface observations, and CMORPH performs much better than 3B42RT. The large errors of 3B42RT and CMORPH remind us of the need for new improvements to satellite precipitation retrieval algorithms or feasible bias adjusting methods.

Disentangling the Effects of Precipitation Amount and Frequency on the Performance of 14 Grassland Species

Science.gov (United States)

Didiano, Teresa J.; Johnson, Marc T. J.; Duval, Tim P.

2016-01-01

Climate change is causing shifts in the amount and frequency of precipitation in many regions, which is expected to have implications for plant performance. Most research has examined the impacts of the amount of precipitation on plants rather than the effects of both the amount and frequency of precipitation. To understand how climate-driven changes in precipitation can affect grassland plants, we asked: (i) How does the amount and frequency of precipitation affect plant performance? (ii) Do plant functional groups vary in their response to variable precipitation? To answer these questions we grew 14 monocot and eudicot grassland species and conducted a factorial manipulation of the amount (70 vs 90mm/month) and frequency (every 3, 15, or 30 days) of precipitation under rainout shelters. Our results show that both the amount and frequency of precipitation impact plant performance, with larger effects on eudicots than monocots. Above- and below-ground biomass were affected by the amount of precipitation and/or the interaction between the amount and frequency of precipitation. Above-ground biomass increased by 21–30% when the amount of precipitation was increased. When event frequency was decreased from 3 to 15 or 30 days, below-ground biomass generally decreased by 18–34% in the 70 mm treatment, but increased by 33–40% in the 90 mm treatment. Changes in stomatal conductance were largely driven by changes in event frequency. Our results show that it is important to consider changes in both the amount and frequency of precipitation when predicting how plant communities will respond to variable precipitation. PMID:27622497

Study of copper precipitation behavior in a Cu-bearing austenitic antibacterial stainless steel

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ren, Ling; Nan, Li; Yang, Ke

2011-01-01

Copper (Cu) precipitation behavior in a type 304 Cu-bearing austenitic antibacterial stainless steel was studied by analyses of variations in micro-hardness, electrical resistivity, electrochemical impedance and lattice constant of the steel, complemented with transmission electron microscopy (TEM) observation, showing more or less changes on these properties of the steel with different aging time. It was found that both micro-hardness and electrical resistivity measurements were relatively sensitive and accurate to reflect the Cu precipitation behavior in the experimental steel, indicating the beginning and finishing points of the precipitation, which are more simple and effective to be used for development of the new type of antibacterial stainless steels.

Predicting Geomorphic and Hydrologic Risks after Wildfire Using Harmonic and Stochastic Analyses

Science.gov (United States)

Mikesell, J.; Kinoshita, A. M.; Florsheim, J. L.; Chin, A.; Nourbakhshbeidokhti, S.

2017-12-01

Wildfire is a landscape-scale disturbance that often alters hydrological processes and sediment flux during subsequent storms. Vegetation loss from wildfires induce changes to sediment supply such as channel erosion and sedimentation and streamflow magnitude or flooding. These changes enhance downstream hazards, threatening human populations and physical aquatic habitat over various time scales. Using Williams Canyon, a basin burned by the Waldo Canyon Fire (2012) as a case study, we utilize deterministic and statistical modeling methods (Fourier series and first order Markov chain) to assess pre- and post-fire geomorphic and hydrologic characteristics, including of precipitation, enhanced vegetation index (EVI, a satellite-based proxy of vegetation biomass), streamflow, and sediment flux. Local precipitation, terrestrial Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) scanning, and satellite-based products are used for these time series analyses. We present a framework to assess variability of periodic and nonperiodic climatic and multivariate trends to inform development of a post-wildfire risk assessment methodology. To establish the extent to which a wildfire affects hydrologic and geomorphic patterns, a Fourier series was used to fit pre- and post-fire geomorphic and hydrologic characteristics to yearly temporal cycles and subcycles of 6, 4, 3, and 2.4 months. These cycles were analyzed using least-squares estimates of the harmonic coefficients or amplitudes of each sub-cycle's contribution to fit the overall behavior of a Fourier series. The stochastic variances of these characteristics were analyzed by composing first-order Markov models and probabilistic analysis through direct likelihood estimates. Preliminary results highlight an increased dependence of monthly post-fire hydrologic characteristics on 12 and 6-month temporal cycles. This statistical and probabilistic analysis provides a basis to determine the impact of wildfires on the temporal dependence of

Cerium oxalate precipitation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chang, T.P.

1987-02-01

Cerium, a nonradioactive, common stand-in for plutonium in development work, has been used to simulate several plutonium precipitation processes at the Savannah River Laboratory. There are similarities between the plutonium trifluoride and the cerium oxalate precipitations in particle size and extent of plating, but not particle morphology. The equilibrium solubility, precipitation kinetics, particle size, extent of plating, and dissolution characteristics of cerium oxalate have been investigated. Interpretations of particle size and plating based on precipitation kinetics (i.e., nucleation and crystal growth) are presented. 16 refs., 7 figs., 6 tabs

Daily temperature and precipitation extremes in the Baltic Sea region derived from the BaltAn65+ reanalysis

Science.gov (United States)

Toll, Velle; Post, Piia

2018-04-01

Daily 2-m temperature and precipitation extremes in the Baltic Sea region for the time period of 1965-2005 is studied based on data from the BaltAn65 + high resolution atmospheric reanalysis. Moreover, the ability of regional reanalysis to capture extremes is analysed by comparing the reanalysis data to gridded observations. The shortcomings in the simulation of the minimum temperatures over the northern part of the region and in the simulation of the extreme precipitation over the Scandinavian mountains in the BaltAn65+ reanalysis data are detected and analysed. Temporal trends in the temperature and precipitation extremes in the Baltic Sea region, with the largest increases in temperature and precipitation in winter, are detected based on both gridded observations and the BaltAn65+ reanalysis data. However, the reanalysis is not able to capture all of the regional trends in the extremes in the observations due to the shortcomings in the simulation of the extremes.

Mercury in precipitation at an urbanized coastal zone of the Baltic Sea (Poland).

Science.gov (United States)

Saniewska, Dominika; Bełdowska, Magdalena; Bełdowski, Jacek; Falkowska, Lucyna

2014-11-01

Wet deposition is an important source of metals to the sea. The temporal variability of Hg concentrations in precipitation, and the impact of air masses of different origins over the Polish coastal zone were assessed. Samples of precipitation were collected (August 2008-May 2009) at an urbanized coastal station in Poland. Hg analyses were conducted using CVAFS. These were the first measurements of Hg concentration in precipitation obtained in the Polish coastal zone. Since Poland was identified as the biggest emitter of Hg to the Baltic, these data are very important. In the heating and non-heating season, Hg concentrations in precipitation were similar. Hg wet deposition flux dominated in summer, when the production of biomass in the aquatic system was able to actively adsorb Hg. Input of metal to the sea was attributed to regional and distant sources. Maritime air masses, through transformation of Hg(0), were an essential vector of mercury in precipitation.

Copper precipitation behavior and mechanical properties of Cu-bearing 316L austenitic stainless steel: A comprehensive cross-correlation study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Xi, Tong; Babar Shahzad, M.; Xu, Dake; Zhao, Jinlong; Yang, Chunguang; Qi, Min; Yang, Ke

2016-01-01

The effect of precipitation hardening on mechanical properties and coarsening behavior of Cu-rich precipitates in a Cu-bearing 316L austenite stainless steel after aging at 700 °C for different time were systematically investigated. The variations of morphology and composition of Cu-rich precipitates as a function of aging time were respectively characterized by electrical resistivity, atom probe tomography (APT) and transmission electron microscopy (TEM). It was found that both hardness and mechanical strength increased to peak value within short aging time, and remained nearly unchanged with prolonged aging time. The TEM observation confirmed a coherent interface between Cu-rich precipitates and austenite matrix, while high number densities of spheroidal Cu-rich precipitates were observed in all aged samples. APT analyses confirmed virtually 100% Cu core composition of Cu-rich precipitates, whereas the average radius was slightly increased from 1.38±0.46 nm to 2.39±0.81 nm with increasing the aging time. The relatively slow growth and coarsening behavior of Cu-rich precipitates was largely attributed to the slower diffusion kinetics of Cu, low interfacial energy and high strain energy of Cu-rich precipitates in the austenite matrix, and was well predicted by the Lifshitz-Slyozov-Wagner theory. The slow increase in average radius of Cu-rich precipitates was consistent with the modest change in hardness and yield strength with extended aging. In addition, the precipitation strengthening effects of Cu-rich precipitates were quantitatively evaluated and analyzed. These cumulative results and analyses could provide a solid foundation for much wider applications of Cu-bearing stainless steels.

Copper precipitation behavior and mechanical properties of Cu-bearing 316L austenitic stainless steel: A comprehensive cross-correlation study

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Xi, Tong [Institute of Metal Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shenyang 110016 (China); School of Materials Science and Engineering, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116024 (China); Babar Shahzad, M.; Xu, Dake; Zhao, Jinlong [Institute of Metal Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shenyang 110016 (China); Yang, Chunguang, E-mail: cgyang@imr.ac.cn [Institute of Metal Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shenyang 110016 (China); Qi, Min [School of Materials Science and Engineering, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116024 (China); Yang, Ke, E-mail: kyang@imr.ac.cn [Institute of Metal Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shenyang 110016 (China)

2016-10-15

The effect of precipitation hardening on mechanical properties and coarsening behavior of Cu-rich precipitates in a Cu-bearing 316L austenite stainless steel after aging at 700 °C for different time were systematically investigated. The variations of morphology and composition of Cu-rich precipitates as a function of aging time were respectively characterized by electrical resistivity, atom probe tomography (APT) and transmission electron microscopy (TEM). It was found that both hardness and mechanical strength increased to peak value within short aging time, and remained nearly unchanged with prolonged aging time. The TEM observation confirmed a coherent interface between Cu-rich precipitates and austenite matrix, while high number densities of spheroidal Cu-rich precipitates were observed in all aged samples. APT analyses confirmed virtually 100% Cu core composition of Cu-rich precipitates, whereas the average radius was slightly increased from 1.38±0.46 nm to 2.39±0.81 nm with increasing the aging time. The relatively slow growth and coarsening behavior of Cu-rich precipitates was largely attributed to the slower diffusion kinetics of Cu, low interfacial energy and high strain energy of Cu-rich precipitates in the austenite matrix, and was well predicted by the Lifshitz-Slyozov-Wagner theory. The slow increase in average radius of Cu-rich precipitates was consistent with the modest change in hardness and yield strength with extended aging. In addition, the precipitation strengthening effects of Cu-rich precipitates were quantitatively evaluated and analyzed. These cumulative results and analyses could provide a solid foundation for much wider applications of Cu-bearing stainless steels.

Statistical analysis of trends in monthly precipitation at the Limbang River Basin, Sarawak (NW Borneo), Malaysia

Science.gov (United States)

Krishnan, M. V. Ninu; Prasanna, M. V.; Vijith, H.

2018-05-01

Effect of climate change in a region can be characterised by the analysis of rainfall trends. In the present research, monthly rainfall trends at Limbang River Basin (LRB) in Sarawak, Malaysia for a period of 45 years (1970-2015) were characterised through the non-parametric Mann-Kendall and Spearman's Rho tests and relative seasonality index. Statistically processed monthly rainfall of 12 well distributed rain gauging stations in LRB shows almost equal amount of rainfall in all months. Mann-Kendall and Spearman's Rho tests revealed a specific pattern of rainfall trend with a definite boundary marked in the months of January and August with positive trends in all stations. Among the stations, Limbang DID, Long Napir and Ukong showed positive (increasing) trends in all months with a maximum increase of 4.06 mm/year (p = 0.01) in November. All other stations showed varying trends (both increasing and decreasing). Significant (p = 0.05) decreasing trend was noticed in Ulu Medalam and Setuan during September (- 1.67 and - 1.79 mm/year) and October (- 1.59 and - 1.68 mm/year) in Mann-Kendall and Spearman's Rho tests. Spatial pattern of monthly rainfall trends showed two clusters of increasing rainfalls (maximas) in upper and lower part of the river basin separated with a dominant decreasing rainfall corridor. The results indicate a generally increasing trend of rainfall in Sarawak, Borneo.

Beryllium-7 and {sup 210}Pb atmospheric deposition measured in moss and dependence on cumulative precipitation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Krmar, M., E-mail: krmar@df.uns.ac.rs [Faculty of Science, Physics Department, Trg Dositeja Obradovića 4, Novi Sad (Serbia); Mihailović, D.T.; Arsenić, I. [Faculty of Agriculture, Trg Dositeja Obradovića 8, Novi Sad (Serbia); Radnović, D. [Faculty of Science, Biology Department, Trg Dositeja Obradovića 4, Novi Sad (Serbia); Pap, I. [Faculty of Agriculture, Trg Dositeja Obradovića 8, Novi Sad (Serbia)

2016-01-15

This paper focuses on analysis of the time series of {sup 7}Be and {sup 210}Pb activity measured in moss, and the amount, as well as duration of precipitation, to gain a better understanding of the possible relationships between airborne radionuclide deposition and precipitation. Here we consider whether the amount of these airborne radionuclides in moss samples is a cumulative measure of radionuclide deposition and decay, and a new approach for analyses of the relationships between precipitation and moss activity concentrations is suggested. Through these analyses it was shown that comparison of cumulative activity measured at one location using moss, normalized by values of cumulative amount or duration of precipitation, showed different regimes of airborne radionuclide deposition. - Graphical abstract: Correlation between cumulative activity of {sup 7}Be and {sup 210}Pb measured in moss samples normalized by the cumulative precipitation. - Highlights: • Use of mosses in measurement of airborne radionuclides deposition was investigated • Prior work indicated {sup 7}Be and {sup 210}Pb activities were not correlated with precipitation • This is unusual since radionuclides moss tissues depends on depositional fluxes. • A new method for study of {sup 7}Be and {sup 210}Pb depositional dynamics was developed • Different seasonal regimes of {sup 7}Be deposition are more noticeable in new technique.

Estimation of the impact of climate change-induced extreme precipitation events on floods

Science.gov (United States)

Hlavčová, Kamila; Lapin, Milan; Valent, Peter; Szolgay, Ján; Kohnová, Silvia; Rončák, Peter

2015-09-01

In order to estimate possible changes in the flood regime in the mountainous regions of Slovakia, a simple physically-based concept for climate change-induced changes in extreme 5-day precipitation totals is proposed in the paper. It utilizes regionally downscaled scenarios of the long-term monthly means of the air temperature, specific air humidity and precipitation projected for Central Slovakia by two regional (RCM) and two global circulation models (GCM). A simplified physically-based model for the calculation of short-term precipitation totals over the course of changing air temperatures, which is used to drive a conceptual rainfall-runoff model, was proposed. In the paper a case study of this approach in the upper Hron river basin in Central Slovakia is presented. From the 1981-2010 period, 20 events of the basin's most extreme average of 5-day precipitation totals were selected. Only events with continual precipitation during 5 days were considered. These 5-day precipitation totals were modified according to the RCM and GCM-based scenarios for the future time horizons of 2025, 2050 and 2075. For modelling runoff under changed 5-day precipitation totals, a conceptual rainfall-runoff model developed at the Slovak University of Technology was used. Changes in extreme mean daily discharges due to climate change were compared with the original flood events and discussed.

[Variations and simulation of stable isotopes in precipitation in the Heihe River basin].

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Jin-Kui; Yang, Qi-Yue; Ding, Yong-Jian; Ye, Bai-Sheng; Zhang, Ming-Quan

2011-07-01

To study the variations of deltaD and delta18O in precipitation, 301 samples were sampled during 2002-2004 in 6 sites in the Heihe River basin, Northwestern China. The deltaD and delta18O values ranged from 59 per thousand to -254 per thousand and 6.5 per thousand to -33.4 per thousand, respectively. This wide range indicated that stable isotopes in precipitation were controlled by different condensation mechanisms as a function of air temperature and varying sources of moisture. delta18O in precipitation had a close positive relationship with the air temperature, i. e., a clear temperature effect existed in this area. At a monthly scale, no precipitation effect existed. On the other hand, a weak precipitation effect still accrued at precipitation events scale. The spatial variation of delta18O showed that the weighted average delta18O values decreased with the increasing altitude of sampling sites at a gradient of -0. 47 per thousand/100m. A regional Meteoric Water Line, deltaD = 7.82 delta18O + 7.63, was nearly identical to the Meteoric Water Line in the Northern China. The results of backward trajectory of each precipitation day at Xishui showed that the moisture of the precipitation in cold season (October to March) mainly originated from the west while the moisture source was more complicated in warm season (April to September). The simulation of seasonal delta18O variation showed that the stable isotope composition of precipitation tended to a clear sine-wave seasonal variation.

Precipitation Depth-Duration-Frequency Analysis for the Nevada National Security Site and Surrounding Areas

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chen, Li [Desert Research Inst. (DRI), Las Vegas, NV (United States). Division of Hydrologic Sciences; Miller, Julianne J. [Desert Research Inst. (DRI), Las Vegas, NV (United States). Division of Hydrologic Sciences

2016-08-01

Accurate precipitation frequency data are important for Environmental Management Soils Activities on the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS). These data are important for environmental assessments performed for regulatory closure of Soils Corrective Action Unit (CAU) Sites, as well as engineering mitigation designs and post-closure monitoring strategies to assess and minimize potential contaminant migration from Soils CAU Sites. Although the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Atlas 14 (Bonnin et al., 2011) provides precipitation frequency data for the NNSS area, the NNSS-specific observed precipitation data were not consistent with the NOAA Atlas 14 predicted data. This is primarily due to the NOAA Atlas 14 products being produced from analyses without including the approximately 30 NNSS precipitation gage records, several of which approach or exceed 50 year of record. Therefore, a study of precipitation frequency that incorporated the NNSS precipitation gage records into the NOAA Atlas 14 dataset, was performed specifically for the NNSS to derive more accurate site-specific precipitation data products. Precipitation frequency information, such as the depth-duration-frequency (DDF) relationships, are required to generate synthetic standard design storm hydrographs and assess actual precipitation events. In this study, the actual long-term NNSS precipitation gage records, some of which are the longest gage records in southern and central Nevada, were analyzed to allow for more accurate precipitation DDF estimates to be developed for the NNSS. Gridded maps of precipitation frequency for the NNSS and surrounding areas were then produced.

Natural gas monthly, June 1994

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1994-06-01

The Natural Gas Monthly (NGM) highlights activities, events, and analyses of interest to public and private sector organizations associated with the natural gas industry. Volume and price data are presented each month for natural gas production, distribution, consumption, and interstate pipeline activities. Producer-related activities and underground storage data are also reported. From time to time, the NGM features articles designed to assist readers in using and interpreting natural gas information. The feature article this month is the executive summary from Natural Gas 1994: Issues and Trends. 6 figs., 31 tabs.

Analysis of precipitation characteristics of South and North China based on the power-law tail exponents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Feng Guolin; Zhang Daquan; Gong Zhiqiang; Zhi Rong

2008-01-01

Precipitation sequence is a typical nonlinear and chaotic observational series, and studies on precipitation forecasts are restricted to the use of traditional linear statistical methods, especially when analysing the regional characteristics of precipitation. In the context of 20 stations' daily precipitation series (from 1956 to 2000) in South China (SC) and North China (NC), we divide each precipitation series into many self-stationary segments by using the heuristic segmentation algorithm (briefly BG algorithm). For each station's precipitation series, we calculate the exponent of power-law tail (EPT) of the cumulative probability distribution of segments with a length larger than l for precipitation and temperature series. Our results show that the power-law decay of the cumulative probability distribution of stationary segments might be a common attribution for precipitation and other nonstationary time series; the EPT somewhat indicates the precipitation duration and its spatial distribution that might be different from area to area. The EPT in NC is larger than in SC; Meanwhile, EPT might be another effective way to study the abrupt changes in nonlinear and nonstationary time series. (geophysics, astronomy and astrophysics)

The effect of a local source on the composition of precipitation in south-central Maine

Science.gov (United States)

Scott D. Boyce; Samuel S. Butcher

1976-01-01

Bulk precipitation samples were collected from ten sites in south-central Maine during the period 18 June to 30 September 1974. Data from the chemical analyses of the precipitation were used to determine regional deposition patterns of the ionic constituents. Acidic pH values ranging from 3.8 to 5.0 are characteristic of the region, but relatively alkaline pH values of...

Clustering of France Monthly Precipitation, Temperature and Discharge Based on their Multiresolution Links with 500mb Geopotential Height from 1968 to 2008

Science.gov (United States)

Massei, N.; Fossa, M.; Dieppois, B.; Vidal, J. P.; Fournier, M.; Laignel, B.

2017-12-01

In the context of climate change and ever growing use of water resources, identifying how the climate and watershed signature in discharge variability changes with the geographic location is of prime importance. This study aims at establishing how 1968-2008 multiresolution links between 3 local hydrometerological variables (precipitation, temperature and discharge) and 500 mb geopotential height are structured over France. First, a methodology that allows to encode the 3D geopotential height data into its 1D conformal modulus time series is introduced. Then, for each local variable, their covariations with the geopotential height are computed with cross wavelet analysis. Finally, a clustering analysis of each variable cross spectra is done using bootstrap clustering.We compare the clustering results for each local variable in order to untangle the watershed from the climate drivers in France's rivers discharge. Additionally, we identify the areas in the geopotential height field that are responsible for the spatial structure of each local variable.Main results from this study show that for precipitation and discharge, clear spatial zones emerge. Each cluster is characterized either by different different amplitudes and/or time scales of covariations with geopotential height. Precipitation and discharge clustering differ with the later being simpler which indicates a strong low frequency modulation by the watersheds all over France. Temperature on the other hand shows less clearer spatial zones. For precipitation and discharge, we show that the main action path starts at the northern tropical zone then moves up the to central North Atlantic zone which seems to indicates an interaction between the convective cells variability and the reinforcement of the westerlies jets as one of the main control of the precipitation and discharge over France. Temperature shows a main zone of action directly over France hinting at local temperature/pressure interactions.

Vegetation anomalies caused by antecedent precipitation in most of the world

Science.gov (United States)

Papagiannopoulou, C.; Miralles, D. G.; Dorigo, W. A.; Verhoest, N. E. C.; Depoorter, M.; Waegeman, W.

2017-07-01

Quantifying environmental controls on vegetation is critical to predict the net effect of climate change on global ecosystems and the subsequent feedback on climate. Following a non-linear Granger causality framework based on a random forest predictive model, we exploit the current wealth of multi-decadal satellite data records to uncover the main drivers of monthly vegetation variability at the global scale. Results indicate that water availability is the most dominant factor driving vegetation globally: about 61% of the vegetated surface was primarily water-limited during 1981-2010. This included semiarid climates but also transitional ecoregions. Intra-annually, temperature controls Northern Hemisphere deciduous forests during the growing season, while antecedent precipitation largely dominates vegetation dynamics during the senescence period. The uncovered dependency of global vegetation on water availability is substantially larger than previously reported. This is owed to the ability of the framework to (1) disentangle the co-linearities between radiation/temperature and precipitation, and (2) quantify non-linear impacts of climate on vegetation. Our results reveal a prolonged effect of precipitation anomalies in dry regions: due to the long memory of soil moisture and the cumulative, non-linear, response of vegetation, water-limited regions show sensitivity to the values of precipitation occurring three months earlier. Meanwhile, the impacts of temperature and radiation anomalies are more immediate and dissipate shortly, pointing to a higher resilience of vegetation to these anomalies. Despite being infrequent by definition, hydro-climatic extremes are responsible for up to 10% of the vegetation variability during the 1981-2010 period in certain areas, particularly in water-limited ecosystems. Our approach is a first step towards a quantitative comparison of the resistance and resilience signature of different ecosystems, and can be used to benchmark Earth

Predictability of Precipitation Over the Conterminous U.S. Based on the CMIP5 Multi-Model Ensemble

Science.gov (United States)

Jiang, Mingkai; Felzer, Benjamin S.; Sahagian, Dork

2016-01-01

Characterizing precipitation seasonality and variability in the face of future uncertainty is important for a well-informed climate change adaptation strategy. Using the Colwell index of predictability and monthly normalized precipitation data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) multi-model ensembles, this study identifies spatial hotspots of changes in precipitation predictability in the United States under various climate scenarios. Over the historic period (1950–2005), the recurrent pattern of precipitation is highly predictable in the East and along the coastal Northwest, and is less so in the arid Southwest. Comparing the future (2040–2095) to the historic period, larger changes in precipitation predictability are observed under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5 than those under RCP 4.5. Finally, there are region-specific hotspots of future changes in precipitation predictability, and these hotspots often coincide with regions of little projected change in total precipitation, with exceptions along the wetter East and parts of the drier central West. Therefore, decision-makers are advised to not rely on future total precipitation as an indicator of water resources. Changes in precipitation predictability and the subsequent changes on seasonality and variability are equally, if not more, important factors to be included in future regional environmental assessment. PMID:27425819

Mesoscale storm and dry period parameters from hourly precipitation data: program documentation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Thorp, J.M.

1984-09-01

Wet deposition of airborne chemical pollutants occurs primarily from precipitation. Precipitation rate, amount, duration, and location are important meteorological factors to be considered when attempting to understand the relationship of precipitation to pollutant deposition. The Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) has conducted studies and experiments in numerous locations to collect data that can be incorporated into theories and models that attempt to describe the complex relationship between precipitation occurrence and chemical wet desposition. Model development often requires the use of average rather than random condition as input. To provide mean values of storm parameters, the task, Climatological Analysis of Mesoscale Storms, was created as a facet of the Environmental Protection Agency's related-service project, Precipitation Scavenging Module Development. Within this task computer programs have been developed at PNL which incorporate hourly precipitation data from National Weather Service stations to calculate mean values and frequency distributions of precipitation periods and of the interspersed dry periods. These programs have been written with a degree of flexibiity that will allow user modification for applications to different, but similar, analyses. This report describes in detail the rationale and operation of the two computer programs which produce the tables of average and frequency distributions of storm and dry period parameters from the precipitation data. A listing of the programs and examples of the generated output are included in the appendices. 3 references, 3 figures, 6 tables.

Atomic mechanisms of γ' precipitate plate growth in the Al-Ag system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Howe, J.M.

1985-03-01

Energy-dispersive x-ray spectroscopy results that the precipitates have the composition Ag 2 Al. High-resolution electron microscopy of γ' precipitates in both // and // orientations shows that all interfaces of the precipitate are largely coherent with the matrix and are faceted along low-energy (111) and (110) matrix plans, due to the influence of surface and elastic strain energies on the transformation. Further comparison between experimental and calculated high-resolution images of the precipitate/matrix interface and of Shockley partial dislocation ledges on the precipitate faces demonstrates that both thickening and lengthening of γ' precipitate plates occurs by the passage of the Shockley partial dislocations along alternate (111) matrix planes by a terrace-ledge-kink mechanism. These images and electron diffraction information also indicate that the γ' precipitates are ordered, where the A-planes in the precipitate contain nearly pure Ag and the B-planes have the composition Al 2 Ag, and that the limiting reaction in the growth process is the substitutional diffusion of Ag cross kinks in the Shockley partial dislocations, which terminate in the Ag-rich A-planes. The terraces between ledges are atomically flat and ledges are uniformly stepped-down from the centers to the edges of isolated precipitates. Convergent-beam electron diffraction (CBED) analyses of γ' precipitates indicate that they have the space group P6 3 /mmc. Effect of specimen thickness on symmetry determinations by CBED was also examined for an α-titanium sample. Results show that the symmetries observed in CBED patterns from thin specimens may be due to the limited thickness of the specimen, rather than to the actual space group of the material

Precipitation behavior and effect of new precipitated β phase in AZ80 magnesium alloy

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

TANG Wei; HAN En-hou; XU Yong-bo; LIU Lu

2006-01-01

Granular precipitate that was a new kind of β-Mg17Al12 phase found in aged AZ80 wrought Mg alloy at all aging temperature was studied. The structure and precipitation behavior of this granular β-Mg17Al12 precipitate were studied by environmental scanning electron microscopy (ESEM) and transmission electron microscopy (TEM). The effect of the granular precipitate on mechanical properties of AZ80 alloy was also studied. The new precipitate that was granular and nucleated both on grain boundaries (GBs) and twin boundaries, has the same crystal structure and lattice parameter as those of the continuous or discontinuous precipitated β-Mg17Al12. And the nucleation and growth of the granular precipitate are faster than those of the other two precipitates at higher temperatures (above 583 K), but are suppressed at lower temperatures (below 423 K). At lower temperatures, the discontinuous β-Mg17Al12 precipitates firstly and the granular β-Mg17Al12 precipitates after aged more than 40 h. The crack is easily nucleated on the phase boundaries of granular phase and matrix because of the weak binding force. As a result, the strength and ductility of AZ80 Mg alloy are decreased by the granular β-Mg17Al12 precipitate.

Natural gas monthly, August 1994

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1994-08-24

The Natural Gas Monthly (NGM) highlights activities, events, and analyses of interest to public and private sector organizations associated with the natural gas industry. Volume and price data are presented each month for natural gas production, distribution, consumption, and interstate pipeline activities. Producer-related activities and underground storage data are also reported. From time to time, the NGM features articles designed to assist readers in using and interpreting natural gas information.

Natural gas monthly, November 1993

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1993-01-01

The Natural Gas Monthly (NGM) highlights activities, events, and analyses of interest to public and private sector organizations associated with the natural gas industry. Volume and price data are presented each month for natural gas production, distribution, consumption, and interstate pipeline activities. Producer-related activities and underground state data are also reported. From time to time, the NGM features articles designed to assist readers in using and interpreting natural gas information

Spring soil moisture-precipitation feedback in the Southern Great Plains: How is it related to large-scale atmospheric conditions?

KAUST Repository

Su, Hua

2014-02-22

The Southern Great Plains (SGP) has been shown as a region of significant soil moisture-precipitation (S-P) coupling. However, how strong evapotranspiration (ET) can affect regional precipitation remains largely unclear, impeding a full grasp of the S-P feedback in that area. The current study seeks to unravel, in a spring month (April), the potential role played by large-scale atmospheric conditions in shaping S (ET)-P feedback. Our regional climate modeling experiments demonstrate that the presence of anomalous low (high) pressure and cyclonic (anticyclonic) flows at the upper/middle troposphere over the relevant areas is associated with strongest (minimum) positive S-P feedback in the SGP. Their impacts are interpreted in terms of large-scale atmospheric dynamical disturbance, including the intensity and location of synoptic eddies. Further analyses of the vertical velocity fields corroborate these interpretations. In addition, the relationship between lower tropospheric moisture conditions (including winds) and feedback composites is evaluated. Key Points The S-P feedback strength in SGP in April varies inter-annually The atmospheric dynamic features affect significantly the feedback strength composite moisture conditions are related to atmospheric circulation structure ©2014. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.

Spring soil moisture-precipitation feedback in the Southern Great Plains: How is it related to large-scale atmospheric conditions?

KAUST Repository

Su, Hua; Yang, Zong-Liang; Dickinson, Robert E.; Wei, Jiangfeng

2014-01-01

The Southern Great Plains (SGP) has been shown as a region of significant soil moisture-precipitation (S-P) coupling. However, how strong evapotranspiration (ET) can affect regional precipitation remains largely unclear, impeding a full grasp of the S-P feedback in that area. The current study seeks to unravel, in a spring month (April), the potential role played by large-scale atmospheric conditions in shaping S (ET)-P feedback. Our regional climate modeling experiments demonstrate that the presence of anomalous low (high) pressure and cyclonic (anticyclonic) flows at the upper/middle troposphere over the relevant areas is associated with strongest (minimum) positive S-P feedback in the SGP. Their impacts are interpreted in terms of large-scale atmospheric dynamical disturbance, including the intensity and location of synoptic eddies. Further analyses of the vertical velocity fields corroborate these interpretations. In addition, the relationship between lower tropospheric moisture conditions (including winds) and feedback composites is evaluated. Key Points The S-P feedback strength in SGP in April varies inter-annually The atmospheric dynamic features affect significantly the feedback strength composite moisture conditions are related to atmospheric circulation structure ©2014. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.

Tritium in Precipitation, Surface and Groundwaters in the Zagreb Area

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Horvatincic, N.; Baresic, J.; Sironic, A.; Krajcar Bronic, I.; Obelic, B.

2011-01-01

Radioactive isotope tritium (3H) and stable isotopes of hydrogen (2H/1H) and oxygen (18O/16O) were measured in Sava River, precipitation and groundwater at 3 monitoring wells (piezometers) and 1 production well of the Petrusevec aquifer, close to the Sava River. Samples were collected monthly during 2010. The investigation is included in the Regional IAEA Project RER/8/016 Using Environmental Isotopes for Evaluation of Streamwater/Groundwater Interactions in Selected Aquifers in the Danube Basin. Sava River is a tributary of Danube River and the aim of the investigation is to determine the influence of surface stream of Sava River to the groundwater of aquifer used for water exploitation. In this work only 3H results were presented. 3H was measured by liquid scintillation counter Quantulus 1220, using electrolytic enrichment for all samples. 3H activity in precipitation showed slight seasonal fluctuation between 4 TU and 14 TU, with higher values in summer. 3H activity of Sava River and groundwater of the Petrusevec aquifer followed 3H of precipitation till May 2010. Significant increase of 3H in Sava River was observed in June, (199 @ 20) TU, and in the next month it fell down at 6 TU. Increase of 3H was also observed in groundwater but with damped response (maximum 60 TU) and with delay of 2 - 3 months related to Sava River. Different response of different piezometers and the well indicated the different infiltration times of surface water of Sava River to groundwater of the Petrusevec aquifer. The increased 3H activity in surface and groundwaters was caused by release of tritiated water from the Krsko Nuclear Power Plant, 30 km upstream from Zagreb. The results of 3H, 2H/1H and 18O/16O measurements will be used to determine the infiltration time of groundwater of the Petrusevec aquifer using conceptual and mathematical models. (author)

Quantification of the impact of precipitation spatial distribution uncertainty on predictive uncertainty of a snowmelt runoff model

Science.gov (United States)

Jacquin, A. P.

2012-04-01

This study is intended to quantify the impact of uncertainty about precipitation spatial distribution on predictive uncertainty of a snowmelt runoff model. This problem is especially relevant in mountain catchments with a sparse precipitation observation network and relative short precipitation records. The model analysed is a conceptual watershed model operating at a monthly time step. The model divides the catchment into five elevation zones, where the fifth zone corresponds to the catchment's glaciers. Precipitation amounts at each elevation zone i are estimated as the product between observed precipitation at a station and a precipitation factor FPi. If other precipitation data are not available, these precipitation factors must be adjusted during the calibration process and are thus seen as parameters of the model. In the case of the fifth zone, glaciers are seen as an inexhaustible source of water that melts when the snow cover is depleted.The catchment case study is Aconcagua River at Chacabuquito, located in the Andean region of Central Chile. The model's predictive uncertainty is measured in terms of the output variance of the mean squared error of the Box-Cox transformed discharge, the relative volumetric error, and the weighted average of snow water equivalent in the elevation zones at the end of the simulation period. Sobol's variance decomposition (SVD) method is used for assessing the impact of precipitation spatial distribution, represented by the precipitation factors FPi, on the models' predictive uncertainty. In the SVD method, the first order effect of a parameter (or group of parameters) indicates the fraction of predictive uncertainty that could be reduced if the true value of this parameter (or group) was known. Similarly, the total effect of a parameter (or group) measures the fraction of predictive uncertainty that would remain if the true value of this parameter (or group) was unknown, but all the remaining model parameters could be fixed

Precipitation in Madeira island and atmospheric rivers in the winter seasons

Science.gov (United States)

Couto, Flavio T.; Salgado, Rui; João Costa, Maria; Prior, Victor

2016-04-01

This study aims to analyse the distribution of the daily accumulated precipitation in the Madeira's highlands over a 10-year period, as well as the main characteristics associated with atmospheric rivers (ARs) affecting the island during 10 winter seasons, and their impact in the rainfall amounts recorded near the mountain crest in the south-eastern part of the island. The period between September 2002 and November 2012 is considered for the analysis. The ARs have been identified from the total precipitable water vapour field extracted from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS). The AIRS observations were downloaded for a domain covering large part of the North Atlantic Ocean. The precipitable water vapour field from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) analysis was also used aiming to support the AIRS data when there was no satellite information over the island. The daily accumulated precipitation at surface showed generally drier summers, while the highest accumulated precipitation are recorded mainly during the winter, although some significant events may occur also in autumn and spring seasons. The patterns of the precipitable water vapour field when ARs reach the island were investigated, and even if great part of the atmospheric rivers reaches the island in a dissipation stage, some rivers are heavy enough to reach the Madeira Island. In this situation, the water vapour transport could be observed in two main configurations and transporting significant water vapour amounts toward the Madeira from the tropical region. This study lead to conclude that the atmospheric rivers, when associated to high values of precipitable water vapour over the island can provide favourable conditions to the development of precipitation, sometimes associated with high amounts. However, it was also found that many cases of high to extreme accumulated precipitation at the surface were not associated to this kind of moisture transport.

Asymmetric responses of primary productivity to precipitation extremes: A synthesis of grassland precipitation manipulation experiments.

Science.gov (United States)

Wilcox, Kevin R; Shi, Zheng; Gherardi, Laureano A; Lemoine, Nathan P; Koerner, Sally E; Hoover, David L; Bork, Edward; Byrne, Kerry M; Cahill, James; Collins, Scott L; Evans, Sarah; Gilgen, Anna K; Holub, Petr; Jiang, Lifen; Knapp, Alan K; LeCain, Daniel; Liang, Junyi; Garcia-Palacios, Pablo; Peñuelas, Josep; Pockman, William T; Smith, Melinda D; Sun, Shanghua; White, Shannon R; Yahdjian, Laura; Zhu, Kai; Luo, Yiqi

2017-10-01

Climatic changes are altering Earth's hydrological cycle, resulting in altered precipitation amounts, increased interannual variability of precipitation, and more frequent extreme precipitation events. These trends will likely continue into the future, having substantial impacts on net primary productivity (NPP) and associated ecosystem services such as food production and carbon sequestration. Frequently, experimental manipulations of precipitation have linked altered precipitation regimes to changes in NPP. Yet, findings have been diverse and substantial uncertainty still surrounds generalities describing patterns of ecosystem sensitivity to altered precipitation. Additionally, we do not know whether previously observed correlations between NPP and precipitation remain accurate when precipitation changes become extreme. We synthesized results from 83 case studies of experimental precipitation manipulations in grasslands worldwide. We used meta-analytical techniques to search for generalities and asymmetries of aboveground NPP (ANPP) and belowground NPP (BNPP) responses to both the direction and magnitude of precipitation change. Sensitivity (i.e., productivity response standardized by the amount of precipitation change) of BNPP was similar under precipitation additions and reductions, but ANPP was more sensitive to precipitation additions than reductions; this was especially evident in drier ecosystems. Additionally, overall relationships between the magnitude of productivity responses and the magnitude of precipitation change were saturating in form. The saturating form of this relationship was likely driven by ANPP responses to very extreme precipitation increases, although there were limited studies imposing extreme precipitation change, and there was considerable variation among experiments. This highlights the importance of incorporating gradients of manipulations, ranging from extreme drought to extreme precipitation increases into future climate change

GPS-based PWV for precipitation forecasting and its application to a typhoon event

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, Qingzhi; Yao, Yibin; Yao, Wanqiang

2018-01-01

The temporal variability of precipitable water vapour (PWV) derived from Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) observations can be used to forecast precipitation events. A number of case studies of precipitation events have been analysed in Zhejiang Province, and a forecasting method for precipitation events was proposed. The PWV time series retrieved from the Global Positioning System (GPS) observations was processed by using a least-squares fitting method, so as to obtain the line tendency of ascents and descents over PWV. The increment of PWV for a short time (two to six hours) and PWV slope for a longer time (a few hours to more than ten hours) during the PWV ascending period are considered as predictive factors with which to forecast the precipitation event. The numerical results show that about 80%-90% of precipitation events and more than 90% of heavy rain events can be forecasted two to six hours in advance of the precipitation event based on the proposed method. 5-minute PWV data derived from GPS observations based on real-time precise point positioning (RT-PPP) were used for the typhoon event that passed over Zhejiang Province between 10 and 12 July, 2015. A good result was acquired using the proposed method and about 74% of precipitation events were predicted at some ten to thirty minutes earlier than their onset with a false alarm rate of 18%. This study shows that the GPS-based PWV was promising for short-term and now-casting precipitation forecasting.

Trends in extreme temperature and precipitation in Muscat, Oman

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

L. N. Gunawardhana

2014-09-01

Full Text Available Changes in frequency and intensity of weather events often result in more frequent and intensive disasters such as flash floods and persistent droughts. In Oman, changes in precipitation and temperature have already been detected, although a comprehensive analysis to determine long-term trends is yet to be conducted. We analysed daily precipitation and temperature records in Muscat, the capital city of Oman, mainly focusing on extremes. A set of climate indices, defined in the RClimDex software package, were derived from the longest available daily series (precipitation over the period 1977–2011 and temperature over the period 1986–2011. Results showed significant changes in temperature extremes associated with cooling. Annual maximum value of daily maximum temperature (TX, on average, decreased by 1°C (0.42°C/10 year. Similarly, the annual minimum value of daily minimum temperature (TN decreased by 1.5°C (0.61°C/10 year, which, on average, cooled at a faster rate than the maximum temperature. Consequently, the annual count of days when TX > 45°C (98th percentile decreased from 8 to 3, by 5 days. Similarly, the annual count of days when TN < 15°C (2nd percentile increased from 5 to 15, by 10 days. Annual total precipitation averaged over the period 1977–2011 is 81 mm, which shows a tendency toward wetter conditions with a 6 mm/10 year rate. There is also a significant tendency for stronger precipitation extremes according to many indices. The contribution from very wet days to the annual precipitation totals steadily increases with significance at 75% level. When The General Extreme Value (GEV probability distribution is fitted to annual maximum 1-day precipitation, the return level of a 10-year return period in 1995–2011 was estimated to be 95 mm. This return level in the recent decade is about 70% higher than the return level for the period of 1977–1994. These results indicate that the long-term wetting signal apparent in total

Seasonal Analysis of Microbial Communities in Precipitation in the Greater Tokyo Area, Japan

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Satoshi Hiraoka

2017-08-01

Full Text Available The presence of microbes in the atmosphere and their transport over long distances across the Earth's surface was recently shown. Precipitation is likely a major path by which aerial microbes fall to the ground surface, affecting its microbial ecosystems and introducing pathogenic microbes. Understanding microbial communities in precipitation is of multidisciplinary interest from the perspectives of microbial ecology and public health; however, community-wide and seasonal analyses have not been conducted. Here, we carried out 16S rRNA amplicon sequencing of 30 precipitation samples that were aseptically collected over 1 year in the Greater Tokyo Area, Japan. The precipitation microbial communities were dominated by Proteobacteria, Firmicutes, Bacteroidetes, and Actinobacteria and were overall consistent with those previously reported in atmospheric aerosols and cloud water. Seasonal variations in composition were observed; specifically, Proteobacteria abundance significantly decreased from summer to winter. Notably, estimated ordinary habitats of precipitation microbes were dominated by animal-associated, soil-related, and marine-related environments, and reasonably consistent with estimated air mass backward trajectories. To our knowledge, this is the first amplicon-sequencing study investigating precipitation microbial communities involving sampling over the duration of a year.

Precipitation variability inferred from the annual growth and isotopic composition of tropical trees

Science.gov (United States)

Ballantyne, A. P.; Baker, P. A.; Chambers, J. Q.; Villalba, R.

2005-12-01

Here we demonstrate that annual growth and isotopic ratios in tropical trees are responsive to seasonal and annual precipitation variability. We identify several regions of tropical South America characterized by significant relationships between oxygen isotopic ratios (δ 18O) in precipitation and precipitation amount (r = -0.82). Many of these regions are also sensitive to inter-annual variability in the South American Monsoon modulated by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The effectiveness of δ 18O and annual growth of tropical trees as a precipitation proxy is validated by high-resolution sampling of a Tachigali vermelho tree growing near Manaus, Brazil (3.1° S, 60.0° S). Growth in Tachigali spp. was highly correlated with both precipitation and cellulose δ 18O (r = 0.60) and precipitation amount was significantly correlated with δ 18O at a lag of approximately one month (r = 0.56). We also report a multi-proxy record spanning 180 years from Cedrela odorata growing in the Peruvian Amazon near Puerto Maldonado (12.6° S, 69.2° W) revealing a significant relationship between cellulose and monsoon precipitation over the region (r = -0.33). A 150-year record obtained from Polylepis tarapacana growing at Volcan Granada in Northern Argentina (22.0° S, 66.0° W) is also reported with a significant relationship between local monsoon precipitation and a regionally derived ring width index (r = 0.38). Although no significant relationship was revealed between cellulose δ 18O and precipitation in this taxa at this location, separate radii within the same tree revealed a significantly coherent δ 18O signal (r = 0.38). We compared our proxy chronologies with monsoon precipitation reanalysis data for tropical South America, which revealed key features of the South American Monsoon and their sensitivity to ENSO variability.

Validation of EURO-CORDEX regional climate models in reproducing the variability of precipitation extremes in Romania

Science.gov (United States)

Dumitrescu, Alexandru; Busuioc, Aristita

2016-04-01

EURO-CORDEX is the European branch of the international CORDEX initiative that aims to provide improved regional climate change projections for Europe. The main objective of this paper is to document the performance of the individual models in reproducing the variability of precipitation extremes in Romania. Here three EURO-CORDEX regional climate models (RCMs) ensemble (scenario RCP4.5) are analysed and inter-compared: DMI-HIRHAM5, KNMI-RACMO2.2 and MPI-REMO. Compared to previous studies, when the RCM validation regarding the Romanian climate has mainly been made on mean state and at station scale, a more quantitative approach of precipitation extremes is proposed. In this respect, to have a more reliable comparison with observation, a high resolution daily precipitation gridded data set was used as observational reference (CLIMHYDEX project). The comparison between the RCM outputs and observed grid point values has been made by calculating three extremes precipitation indices, recommended by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection Indices (ETCCDI), for the 1976-2005 period: R10MM, annual count of days when precipitation ≥10mm; RX5DAY, annual maximum 5-day precipitation and R95P%, precipitation fraction of annual total precipitation due to daily precipitation > 95th percentile. The RCMs capability to reproduce the mean state for these variables, as well as the main modes of their spatial variability (given by the first three EOF patterns), are analysed. The investigation confirms the ability of RCMs to simulate the main features of the precipitation extreme variability over Romania, but some deficiencies in reproducing of their regional characteristics were found (for example, overestimation of the mea state, especially over the extra Carpathian regions). This work has been realised within the research project "Changes in climate extremes and associated impact in hydrological events in Romania" (CLIMHYDEX), code PN II-ID-2011-2-0073, financed by the Romanian

Winter Precipitation in North America and the Pacific-North America Pattern in GEOS-S2Sv2 Seasonal Hindcast

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Zhao; Molod, Andrea; Schubert, Siegfried

2018-01-01

Reliable prediction of precipitation remains one of the most pivotal and complex challenges in seasonal forecasting. Previous studies show that various large-scale climate modes, such as ENSO, PNA and NAO play significant role in winter precipitation variability over the Northern America. The influences are most pronounced in years of strong indices of such climate modes. This study evaluates model bias, predictability and forecast skills of monthly winter precipitation in GEOS5-S2S 2.0 retrospective forecast from 1981 to 2016, with emphasis on the forecast skill of precipitation over North America during the extreme events of ENSO, PNA and NAO by applying EOF and composite analysis.

Precipitation patterns control the distribution and export of large wood at the catchment scale

OpenAIRE

Il Seo, Jung; Nakamura, Futoshi; Chun, Kun Woo; Kim, Suk Woo; Grant, Gordon E.

2015-01-01

Large wood (LW) plays an important role in river ecosystems, but LW-laden floods may cause serious damage to human lives and property. The relationship between precipitation patterns and variations in LW distribution and export at the watershed scale is poorly understood. To explore these linkages, we examined differences in LW distribution as a function of channel morphologies in six watersheds located in southern and northern Japan and analysed the impacts of different precipitation pattern...

Quantitative TEM study of the precipitation microstructure in aluminium alloy Al(MgSiCu) 6056 T6

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Delmas, F.; Casanove, M.J.; Lours, P.; Couret, A.; Coujou, A.

2004-01-01

The precipitate microstructure in the last-generation aluminium alloy 6056 T6 [AlMgSiCu] is investigated using three complementary techniques of transmission electron microscopy (TEM) with a special focus on the density and volume fraction of strengthening particles. High-resolution TEM allows the identification of the precipitates and the measurement of the precipitate sizes to be performed. Conventional TEM is used to evaluate the number of precipitates in the investigated area as well as their distribution in the matrix. In situ TEM straining, via the analysis of the dislocation slip traces, permits to determine precisely the thickness and the volume of the foil in the region where the precipitates are analysed. Taking into account the shape and the dimensions of precipitates with respect to the foil thickness, a novel methodology for measuring the volume density and the volume fraction of precipitates is proposed

Interannual variation of annual precipitation and urban effect on precipitation in the Beijing region

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

无

2007-01-01

The large scale character of the interannual variation of precipitation and the urban effect on local annual precipitation anomaly are investigated in this paper based on the 1960-2000 annual precipitation observations at 20 stations in the Beijing region. The results show that: the annual precipitation in the Beijing region possesses the large scale variation character with the linear trend of - 1.197/10 yr, which corresponds to a total reduction of 27.82 mm in annual precipitation in the 41 years; the local annual precipitation anomalies (percent of the normal 1960-2000) show a positive center near the urban area, i.e. urban precipitation island (UPI), whose intensity increases with the linear trend of 0. 6621%/10 yr, opposite to the interannual trend of large scale precipitation over the Beijing region; changes in the UPI are also associated with the intensity of synoptic processes of precipitation, and when the synoptic processes are strong (wet years), the intensity of UPI strengthens, while the synoptic processes are weak (dry years), and the UPI disappears in the Beijing region.

Effects of extreme precipitation to the distribution of infectious diseases in Taiwan, 1994-2008.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mu-Jean Chen

Full Text Available The incidence of extreme precipitation has increased with the exacerbation of worldwide climate disruption. We hypothesize an association between precipitation and the distribution patterns that would affect the endemic burden of 8 infectious diseases in Taiwan, including water- and vector-borne infectious diseases. A database integrating daily precipitation and temperature, along with the infectious disease case registry for all 352 townships in the main island of Taiwan was analysed for the period from 1994 to 2008. Four precipitation levels, 350 mm, were categorized to represent quantitative differences, and their associations with each specific disease was investigated using the Generalized Additive Mixed Model and afterwards mapped on to the Geographical Information System. Daily precipitation levels were significantly correlated with all 8 mandatory-notified infectious diseases in Taiwan. For water-borne infections, extreme torrential precipitation (>350 mm/day was found to result in the highest relative risk for bacillary dysentery and enterovirus infections when compared to ordinary rain (<130 mm/day. Yet, for vector-borne diseases, the relative risk of dengue fever and Japanese encephalitis increased with greater precipitation only up to 350 mm. Differential lag effects following precipitation were statistically associated with increased risk for contracting individual infectious diseases. This study's findings can help health resource sector management better allocate medical resources and be better prepared to deal with infectious disease outbreaks following future extreme precipitation events.

Benchmarking monthly homogenization algorithms

Science.gov (United States)

Venema, V. K. C.; Mestre, O.; Aguilar, E.; Auer, I.; Guijarro, J. A.; Domonkos, P.; Vertacnik, G.; Szentimrey, T.; Stepanek, P.; Zahradnicek, P.; Viarre, J.; Müller-Westermeier, G.; Lakatos, M.; Williams, C. N.; Menne, M.; Lindau, R.; Rasol, D.; Rustemeier, E.; Kolokythas, K.; Marinova, T.; Andresen, L.; Acquaotta, F.; Fratianni, S.; Cheval, S.; Klancar, M.; Brunetti, M.; Gruber, C.; Prohom Duran, M.; Likso, T.; Esteban, P.; Brandsma, T.

2011-08-01

The COST (European Cooperation in Science and Technology) Action ES0601: Advances in homogenization methods of climate series: an integrated approach (HOME) has executed a blind intercomparison and validation study for monthly homogenization algorithms. Time series of monthly temperature and precipitation were evaluated because of their importance for climate studies and because they represent two important types of statistics (additive and multiplicative). The algorithms were validated against a realistic benchmark dataset. The benchmark contains real inhomogeneous data as well as simulated data with inserted inhomogeneities. Random break-type inhomogeneities were added to the simulated datasets modeled as a Poisson process with normally distributed breakpoint sizes. To approximate real world conditions, breaks were introduced that occur simultaneously in multiple station series within a simulated network of station data. The simulated time series also contained outliers, missing data periods and local station trends. Further, a stochastic nonlinear global (network-wide) trend was added. Participants provided 25 separate homogenized contributions as part of the blind study as well as 22 additional solutions submitted after the details of the imposed inhomogeneities were revealed. These homogenized datasets were assessed by a number of performance metrics including (i) the centered root mean square error relative to the true homogeneous value at various averaging scales, (ii) the error in linear trend estimates and (iii) traditional contingency skill scores. The metrics were computed both using the individual station series as well as the network average regional series. The performance of the contributions depends significantly on the error metric considered. Contingency scores by themselves are not very informative. Although relative homogenization algorithms typically improve the homogeneity of temperature data, only the best ones improve precipitation data

Climatology of extreme daily precipitation in Colorado and its diverse spatial and seasonal variability

Science.gov (United States)

Mahoney, Kelly M.; Ralph, F. Martin; Walter, Klaus; Doesken, Nolan; Dettinger, Michael; Gottas, Daniel; Coleman, Timothy; White, Allen

2015-01-01

The climatology of Colorado’s historical extreme precipitation events shows a remarkable degree of seasonal and regional variability. Analysis of the largest historical daily precipitation totals at COOP stations across Colorado by season indicates that the largest recorded daily precipitation totals have ranged from less than 60 mm day−1 in some areas to more than 250 mm day−1 in others. East of the Continental Divide, winter events are rarely among the top 10 events at a given site, but spring events dominate in and near the foothills; summer events are most common across the lower-elevation eastern plains, while fall events are most typical for the lower elevations west of the Divide. The seasonal signal in Colorado’s central mountains is complex; high-elevation intense precipitation events have occurred in all months of the year, including summer, when precipitation is more likely to be liquid (as opposed to snow), which poses more of an instantaneous flood risk. Notably, the historic Colorado Front Range daily rainfall totals that contributed to the damaging floods in September 2013 occurred outside of that region’s typical season for most extreme precipitation (spring–summer). That event and many others highlight the fact that extreme precipitation in Colorado has occurred historically during all seasons and at all elevations, emphasizing a year-round statewide risk.

Analysis of Precipitation Characteristics during 1957-2012 in the Semi-Arid Loess Plateau, China.

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Weijun Zhao

Full Text Available Precipitation is the only water supply and most important factor affecting vegetation growth on the slopes of semi-arid Loess Plateau of China. Based on precipitation data from 7 synoptic stations in the study area over the period 1957-2012, the trends of precipitation and standardized precipitation index (SPI were analyzed by using linear regression, Mann-Kendall, and Spearman's Rho tests at the 5% significance level. The results show that (1 the precipitation fluctuation of monthly precipitation was intense (coefficients of variation> 100%, and the drier years were recorded as 1965 and 1995 at all stations. (2 The significant change trend of different stations varied on different time scales: the Changwu station had a significant decreasing trend in April (-0.488 mm/year and November (-0.249 mm/year, while Luochuan station was in April (-0.457 mm/year; Changwu station displayed a significant increasing trends in winter (0.220 mm/year and a significant decreasing trends in spring (-0.770 mm/year. The significant decreasing trends in annual precipitation were detected at the Suide (-2.034 mm/year and Yan'an (-2.129 mm/year stations. (3 The SPI-12 series analysis suggests that the drought degree of Yulin and Changwu was the lowest and that of Hengshan was the highest among the 7 synoptic stations.

18O, 2H and 3H isotopic composition of precipitation and shallow groundwater in Olkiluoto

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hendriksson, N.; Karhu, J.; Niinikoski, P.

2014-12-01

The isotopic composition of oxygen and hydrogen in local precipitation is a key parameter in the modelling of local water circulation. This study was initiated in order to provide systematic monthly records of the isotope content of atmospheric precipitation in the Olkiluoto area and to establish the relation between local rainfall and newly formed groundwater. During January 2005 - December 2012, a total of 85 cumulative monthly rainfall samples and 68 shallow groundwater samples were collected and the isotopic composition of oxygen and hydrogen was recorded for all those samples. Tritium values are available for 79 precipitation and 65 groundwater samples. Based on the 8-year monitoring, the long-term weighted annual mean isotope values of precipitation and the mean values of shallow groundwater are -11.59 per mille and -11.27 per mille for δ 18 O, - 82.3 per mille and -80.3 per mille for δ 2 H and 9.8 and 9.1 TU for tritium, respectively. Based on these data, the mean stable isotope ratios of groundwater represent the long-term mean annual isotopic composition of local precipitation. The precipitation data were used to establish the local meteoric water line (LMWL) for the Olkiluoto area. The line is formulated as: δ 2 H = 7.45 star δ 18 O + 3.82. The isotope time series reveal a change in time. The increasing trend for the δ 18 O and δ 2 H values may be related to climatic variability while the gradual decline observed in the 3 H data is attributed to the still continuing decrease in atmospheric 3 H activity in the northern hemisphere. The systematic seasonal and long-term tritium trends suggest that any potential ground-level tritium release from the Olkiluoto nuclear power plants is insignificant. The d-excess values of Olkiluoto precipitation during the summer period indicated that a notable amount of re-cycled Baltic Sea water may have contributed to precipitation in the Finnish southern coast. Preliminary estimates of the evaporated Baltic Sea water

Precipitation phase separation schemes in the Naqu River basin, eastern Tibetan plateau

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Shaohua; Yan, Denghua; Qin, Tianling; Weng, Baisha; Lu, Yajing; Dong, Guoqiang; Gong, Boya

2018-01-01

Precipitation phase has a profound influence on the hydrological processes in the Naqu River basin, eastern Tibetan plateau. However, there are only six meteorological stations with precipitation phase (rainfall/snowfall/sleet) before 1979 within and around the basin. In order to separate snowfall from precipitation, a new separation scheme with S-shaped curve of snowfall proportion as an exponential function of daily mean temperature was developed. The determinations of critical temperatures in the single/two temperature threshold (STT/TTT2) methods were explored accordingly, and the temperature corresponding to the 50 % snowfall proportion (SP50 temperature) is an efficiently critical temperature for the STT, and two critical temperatures in TTT2 can be determined based on the exponential function and SP50 temperature. Then, different separation schemes were evaluated in separating snowfall from precipitation in the Naqu River basin. The results show that the S-shaped curve methods outperform other separation schemes. Although the STT and TTT2 slightly underestimate and overestimate the snowfall when the temperature is higher and colder than SP50 temperature respectively, the monthly and annual separation snowfalls are generally consistent with the observed snowfalls. On the whole, S-shaped curve methods, STT, and TTT2 perform well in separating snowfall from precipitation with the Pearson correlation coefficient of annual separation snowfall above 0.8 and provide possible approaches to separate the snowfall from precipitation for hydrological modelling.

Natural gas monthly, June 1998

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1998-06-01

The Natural Gas Monthly (NGM) highlights activities, events, and analyses of interest to public and private sector organizations associated with the natural gas industry. Volume and price data are presented each month for natural gas production, distribution, consumption, and interstate pipeline activities. Producer-related activities and underground storage data are also reported. From time to time, the NGM features articles designed to assist readers in using and interpreting natural gas information. 6 figs., 27 tabs.