WorldWideScience

Sample records for monthly peak demand

  1. Forecasting monthly peak demand of electricity in India—A critique

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rallapalli, Srinivasa Rao; Ghosh, Sajal

    2012-01-01

    The nature of electricity differs from that of other commodities since electricity is a non-storable good and there have been significant seasonal and diurnal variations of demand. Under such condition, precise forecasting of demand for electricity should be an integral part of the planning process as this enables the policy makers to provide directions on cost-effective investment and on scheduling the operation of the existing and new power plants so that the supply of electricity can be made adequate enough to meet the future demand and its variations. Official load forecasting in India done by Central Electricity Authority (CEA) is often criticized for being overestimated due to inferior techniques used for forecasting. This paper tries to evaluate monthly peak demand forecasting performance predicted by CEA using trend method and compare it with those predicted by Multiplicative Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (MSARIMA) model. It has been found that MSARIMA model outperforms CEA forecasts both in-sample static and out-of-sample dynamic forecast horizons in all five regional grids in India. For better load management and grid discipline, this study suggests employing sophisticated techniques like MSARIMA for peak load forecasting in India. - Highlights: ► This paper evaluates monthly peak demand forecasting performance by CEA. ► Compares CEA forecasts it with those predicted by MSARIMA model. ► MSARIMA model outperforms CEA forecasts in all five regional grids in India. ► Opportunity exists to improve the performance of CEA forecasts.

  2. Climate change and peak demand for electricity: Evaluating policies for reducing peak demand under different climate change scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anthony, Abigail Walker

    This research focuses on the relative advantages and disadvantages of using price-based and quantity-based controls for electricity markets. It also presents a detailed analysis of one specific approach to quantity based controls: the SmartAC program implemented in Stockton, California. Finally, the research forecasts electricity demand under various climate scenarios, and estimates potential cost savings that could result from a direct quantity control program over the next 50 years in each scenario. The traditional approach to dealing with the problem of peak demand for electricity is to invest in a large stock of excess capital that is rarely used, thereby greatly increasing production costs. Because this approach has proved so expensive, there has been a focus on identifying alternative approaches for dealing with peak demand problems. This research focuses on two approaches: price based approaches, such as real time pricing, and quantity based approaches, whereby the utility directly controls at least some elements of electricity used by consumers. This research suggests that well-designed policies for reducing peak demand might include both price and quantity controls. In theory, sufficiently high peak prices occurring during periods of peak demand and/or low supply can cause the quantity of electricity demanded to decline until demand is in balance with system capacity, potentially reducing the total amount of generation capacity needed to meet demand and helping meet electricity demand at the lowest cost. However, consumers need to be well informed about real-time prices for the pricing strategy to work as well as theory suggests. While this might be an appropriate assumption for large industrial and commercial users who have potentially large economic incentives, there is not yet enough research on whether households will fully understand and respond to real-time prices. Thus, while real-time pricing can be an effective tool for addressing the peak load

  3. Assessment of end-use electricity consumption and peak demand by Townsville's housing stock

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ren, Zhengen; Paevere, Phillip; Grozev, George; Egan, Stephen; Anticev, Julia

    2013-01-01

    We have developed a comprehensive model to estimate annual end-use electricity consumption and peak demand of housing stock, considering occupants' use of air conditioning systems and major appliances. The model was applied to analyse private dwellings in Townsville, Australia's largest tropical city. For the financial year (FY) 2010–11 the predicted results agreed with the actual electricity consumption with an error less than 10% for cooling thermostat settings at the standard setting temperature of 26.5 °C and at 1.0 °C higher than the standard setting. The greatest difference in monthly electricity consumption in the summer season between the model and the actual data decreased from 21% to 2% when the thermostat setting was changed from 26.5 °C to 27.5 °C. Our findings also showed that installation of solar panels in Townville houses could reduce electricity demand from the grid and would have a minor impact on the yearly peak demand. A key new feature of the model is that it can be used to predict probability distribution of energy demand considering (a) that appliances may be used randomly and (b) the way people use thermostats. The peak demand for the FY estimated from the probability distribution tracked the actual peak demand at 97% confidence level. - Highlights: • We developed a model to estimate housing stock energy consumption and peak demand. • Appliances used randomly and thermostat settings for space cooling were considered. • On-site installation of solar panels was also considered. • Its' results agree well with the actual electricity consumption and peak demand. • It shows the model could provide the probability distribution of electricity demand

  4. Scheduling Non-Preemptible Jobs to Minimize Peak Demand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sean Yaw

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines an important problem in smart grid energy scheduling; peaks in power demand are proportionally more expensive to generate and provision for. The issue is exacerbated in local microgrids that do not benefit from the aggregate smoothing experienced by large grids. Demand-side scheduling can reduce these peaks by taking advantage of the fact that there is often flexibility in job start times. We focus attention on the case where the jobs are non-preemptible, meaning once started, they run to completion. The associated optimization problem is called the peak demand minimization problem, and has been previously shown to be NP-hard. Our results include an optimal fixed-parameter tractable algorithm, a polynomial-time approximation algorithm, as well as an effective heuristic that can also be used in an online setting of the problem. Simulation results show that these methods can reduce peak demand by up to 50% versus on-demand scheduling for household power jobs.

  5. Demand Side Management: An approach to peak load smoothing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gupta, Prachi

    A preliminary national-level analysis was conducted to determine whether Demand Side Management (DSM) programs introduced by electric utilities since 1992 have made any progress towards their stated goal of reducing peak load demand. Estimates implied that DSM has a very small effect on peak load reduction and there is substantial regional and end-user variability. A limited scholarly literature on DSM also provides evidence in support of a positive effect of demand response programs. Yet, none of these studies examine the question of how DSM affects peak load at the micro-level by influencing end-users' response to prices. After nearly three decades of experience with DSM, controversy remains over how effective these programs have been. This dissertation considers regional analyses that explore both demand-side solutions and supply-side interventions. On the demand side, models are estimated to provide in-depth evidence of end-user consumption patterns for each North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) region, helping to identify sectors in regions that have made a substantial contribution to peak load reduction. The empirical evidence supports the initial hypothesis that there is substantial regional and end-user variability of reductions in peak demand. These results are quite robust in rapidly-urbanizing regions, where air conditioning and lighting load is substantially higher, and regions where the summer peak is more pronounced than the winter peak. It is also evident from the regional experiences that active government involvement, as shaped by state regulations in the last few years, has been successful in promoting DSM programs, and perhaps for the same reason we witness an uptick in peak load reductions in the years 2008 and 2009. On the supply side, we estimate the effectiveness of DSM programs by analyzing the growth of capacity margin with the introduction of DSM programs. The results indicate that DSM has been successful in offsetting the

  6. Energy Saving by Chopping off Peak Demand Using Day Light

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ashok Kumar Maitra

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available An artificial intelligent technique has been implemented in this research using real time datas to calculate how much energy can be chopped from peak load demand. The results are based on real time data that are taken from power delivering centers. These datas do reflect the present condition of power and a solution to those critical conditions during the peak period. These are done in such a way such that helps in judicious scheduling of load. The time based load scheduling has been done so as to understand the basic criteria for solving power crisis during morning peak and early evening peak. The sunray availability and percentage of load that will use day light saving (DLS technique has been taken into account in this work. The results shows that about 0.5% to 1% of load can be shedded off from the peak load period which otherwise is reduction of power. Thus it otherwise also means that an equivalent amount of energy is saved which amounts to a large saving of national money. This result is obtained on monthly and even daily basis. Thus this paper justifies DLS gives a new renewable technique to save energy.

  7. Reducing Electricity Demand Peaks by Scheduling Home Appliances Usage

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rossello Busquet, Ana; Kardaras, Georgios; Iversen, Villy Bæk

    2011-01-01

    Nowadays there is a tendency to consume electricity during the same period of the day leading to demand peaks. Regular energy consumption habits lead to demand peaks at specific temporal intervals, because users consume power at the same time. In order to avoid demand peaks, users’ appliances...... should consume electricity in a more temporarily distributed way. A new methodology to schedule the usage of home appliances is proposed and analyzed in this paper. The main concept behind this approach is the aggregation of home appliances into priority classes and the definition of a maximum power...... consumption limit, which is not allowed to be exceeded during peak hours. The scenario simulated describes a modern household, where the electrical devices are classified in low and high priority groups. The high priority devices are always granted power in order to operate without temporal restrictions...

  8. Extreme daily increases in peak electricity demand: Tail-quantile estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sigauke, Caston; Verster, Andréhette; Chikobvu, Delson

    2013-01-01

    A Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) is used to model extreme daily increases in peak electricity demand. The model is fitted to years 2000–2011 recorded data for South Africa to make a comparative analysis with the Generalized Pareto-type (GP-type) distribution. Peak electricity demand is influenced by the tails of probability distributions as well as by means or averages. At times there is a need to depart from the average thinking and exploit information provided by the extremes (tails). Empirical results show that both the GP-type and the GPD are a good fit to the data. One of the main advantages of the GP-type is the estimation of only one parameter. Modelling of extreme daily increases in peak electricity demand helps in quantifying the amount of electricity which can be shifted from the grid to off peak periods. One of the policy implications derived from this study is the need for day-time use of electricity billing system similar to the one used in the cellular telephone/and fixed line-billing technology. This will result in the shifting of electricity demand on the grid to off peak time slots as users try to avoid high peak hour charges. - Highlights: ► Policy makers should design demand response strategies to save electricity. ► Peak electricity demand is influenced by tails of probability distributions. ► Both the GSP and the GPD are a good fit to the data. ► Accurate assessment of level and frequency of extreme load forecasts is important.

  9. Reducing electricity demand peaks by scheduling home appliances usage

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rossello-Busquet, A.; Kardaras, G.; Baek Iversen, V.; Soler, J.; Dittmann, L.

    2011-05-15

    Nowadays there is a tendency to consume electricity during the same period of the day leading to demand peaks. Regular energy consumption habits lead to demand peaks at specific temporal intervals, because users consume power at the same time. In order to avoid demand peaks, users' appliances should consume electricity in a more temporarily distributed way. A new methodology to schedule the usage of home appliances is proposed and analyzed in this paper. The main concept behind this approach is the aggregation of home appliances into priority classes and the definition of a maximum power consumption limit, which is not allowed to be exceeded during peak hours. The scenario simulated describes a modern household, where the electrical devices are classified in low and high priority groups. The high priority devices are always granted power in order to operate without temporal restrictions. On the contrary, the low priority devices have to pause their operation, when the algorithm dictates it, and resume it in the future. This can become beneficial for both energy companies and users. The electricity suppliers companies will be capable of regulating power generation during demand peaks periods. Moreover, users can be granted lower electricity bill rates for accepting delaying the operation of some of their appliances. In order to analyze this scenario, teletraffic engineering theory, which is used in evaluating the performance of telecommunication networks, is used. A reversible fair scheduling (RFS) algorithm, which was originally developed for telecommunication networks, is applied. The purpose is to analyze how a power consumption limit and priorities for home appliances will affect the demand peak and the users' everyday life. Verification of the effectiveness of the RFS algorithm is done by means of simulation and by using real data for power consumption and operation hours. The defined maximum power limit of 750 and 1000 Watt was not exceeded during

  10. Peak load demand forecasting using two-level discrete wavelet decomposition and neural network algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bunnoon, Pituk; Chalermyanont, Kusumal; Limsakul, Chusak

    2010-02-01

    This paper proposed the discrete transform and neural network algorithms to obtain the monthly peak load demand in mid term load forecasting. The mother wavelet daubechies2 (db2) is employed to decomposed, high pass filter and low pass filter signals from the original signal before using feed forward back propagation neural network to determine the forecasting results. The historical data records in 1997-2007 of Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT) is used as reference. In this study, historical information of peak load demand(MW), mean temperature(Tmean), consumer price index (CPI), and industrial index (economic:IDI) are used as feature inputs of the network. The experimental results show that the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) is approximately 4.32%. This forecasting results can be used for fuel planning and unit commitment of the power system in the future.

  11. A Framework for Understanding and Generating Integrated Solutions for Residential Peak Energy Demand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buys, Laurie; Vine, Desley; Ledwich, Gerard; Bell, John; Mengersen, Kerrie; Morris, Peter; Lewis, Jim

    2015-01-01

    Supplying peak energy demand in a cost effective, reliable manner is a critical focus for utilities internationally. Successfully addressing peak energy concerns requires understanding of all the factors that affect electricity demand especially at peak times. This paper is based on past attempts of proposing models designed to aid our understanding of the influences on residential peak energy demand in a systematic and comprehensive way. Our model has been developed through a group model building process as a systems framework of the problem situation to model the complexity within and between systems and indicate how changes in one element might flow on to others. It is comprised of themes (social, technical and change management options) networked together in a way that captures their influence and association with each other and also their influence, association and impact on appliance usage and residential peak energy demand. The real value of the model is in creating awareness, understanding and insight into the complexity of residential peak energy demand and in working with this complexity to identify and integrate the social, technical and change management option themes and their impact on appliance usage and residential energy demand at peak times. PMID:25807384

  12. Problems of peak demands in the gas industry

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Haeberlin, A

    1979-01-01

    After a brief explanation of the demands made on gas supply enterprises, a discussion of the possibilities of optimization for meeting the demand follows. There are in principle two possibilities for this: the interruption of deliveries which should be made legal in a contract and the use of peak supply plants, especially in the form of gas storages. The procedure is chosen according to the special situation of each gas supply enterprise.

  13. Price, environment and security: Exploring multi-modal motivation in voluntary residential peak demand response

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gyamfi, Samuel; Krumdieck, Susan

    2011-01-01

    Peak demand on electricity grids is a growing problem that increases costs and risks to supply security. Residential sector loads often contribute significantly to seasonal and daily peak demand. Demand response projects aim to manage peak demand by applying price signals and automated load shedding technologies. This research investigates voluntary load shedding in response to information about the security of supply, the emission profile and the cost of meeting critical peak demand in the customers' network. Customer willingness to change behaviour in response to this information was explored through mail-back survey. The diversified demand modelling method was used along with energy audit data to estimate the potential peak load reduction resulting from the voluntary demand response. A case study was conducted in a suburb of Christchurch, New Zealand, where electricity is the main source for water and space heating. On this network, all water heating cylinders have ripple-control technology and about 50% of the households subscribe to differential day/night pricing plan. The survey results show that the sensitivity to supply security is on par with price, with the emission sensitivity being slightly weaker. The modelling results show potential 10% reduction in critical peak load for aggregate voluntary demand response. - Highlights: → Multiple-factor behaviour intervention is necessarily for effective residential demand response. → Security signals can achieve result comparable to price. → The modelling results show potential 10% reduction in critical peak load for aggregate voluntary demand response. → New Zealand's energy policy should include innovation and development of VDR programmes and technologies.

  14. Reduction of peak energy demand based on smart appliances energy consumption adjustment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Powroźnik, P.; Szulim, R.

    2017-08-01

    In the paper the concept of elastic model of energy management for smart grid and micro smart grid is presented. For the proposed model a method for reducing peak demand in micro smart grid has been defined. The idea of peak demand reduction in elastic model of energy management is to introduce a balance between demand and supply of current power for the given Micro Smart Grid in the given moment. The results of the simulations studies were presented. They were carried out on real household data available on UCI Machine Learning Repository. The results may have practical application in the smart grid networks, where there is a need for smart appliances energy consumption adjustment. The article presents a proposal to implement the elastic model of energy management as the cloud computing solution. This approach of peak demand reduction might have application particularly in a large smart grid.

  15. Impact of peak electricity demand in distribution grids: a stress test

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoogsteen, Gerwin; Molderink, Albert; Hurink, Johann L.; Smit, Gerardus Johannes Maria; Schuring, Friso; Kootstra, Ben

    2015-01-01

    The number of (hybrid) electric vehicles is growing, leading to a higher demand for electricity in distribution grids. To investigate the effects of the expected peak demand on distribution grids, a stress test with 15 electric vehicles in a single street is conducted and described in this paper.

  16. The Risk of Residential Peak Electricity Demand: A Comparison of Five European Countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jacopo Torriti

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The creation of a Europe-wide electricity market combined with the increased intermittency of supply from renewable sources calls for an investigation into the risk of aggregate peak demand. This paper makes use of a risk model to assess differences in time-use data from residential end-users in five different European electricity markets. Drawing on the Multinational Time-Use Survey database, it assesses risk in relation to the probability of electrical appliance use within households for five European countries. Findings highlight in which countries and for which activities the risk of aggregate peak demand is higher and link smart home solutions (automated load control, dynamic pricing and smart appliances to different levels of peak demand risk.

  17. Residential demand response reduces air pollutant emissions on peak electricity demand days in New York City

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gilbraith, Nathaniel; Powers, Susan E.

    2013-01-01

    Many urban areas in the United States have experienced difficulty meeting the National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS), partially due to pollution from electricity generating units. We evaluated the potential for residential demand response to reduce pollutant emissions on days with above average pollutant emissions and a high potential for poor air quality. The study focused on New York City (NYC) due to non-attainment with NAAQS standards, large exposed populations, and the existing goal of reducing pollutant emissions. The baseline demand response scenario simulated a 1.8% average reduction in NYC peak demand on 49 days throughout the summer. Nitrogen oxide and particulate matter less than 2.5 μm in diameter emission reductions were predicted to occur (−70, −1.1 metric tons (MT) annually), although, these were not likely to be sufficient for NYC to meet the NAAQS. Air pollution mediated damages were predicted to decrease by $100,000–$300,000 annually. A sensitivity analysis predicted that substantially larger pollutant emission reductions would occur if electricity demand was shifted from daytime hours to nighttime hours, or the total consumption decreased. Policies which incentivize shifting electricity consumption away from periods of high human and environmental impacts should be implemented, including policies directed toward residential consumers. - Highlights: • The impact of residential demand response on air emissions was modeled. • Residential demand response will decrease pollutant emissions in NYC. • Emissions reductions occur during periods with high potential for poor air quality. • Shifting demand to nighttime hours was more beneficial than to off-peak daytime hours

  18. Households' hourly electricity consumption and peak demand in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller Andersen, Frits; Baldini, Mattia; Hansen, Lars Gårn

    2017-01-01

    consumption, we analyse the contribution of appliances and new services, such as individual heat pumps and electric vehicles, to peak consumption and the need for demand response incentives to reduce the peak.Initially, the paper presents a new model that represents the hourly electricity consumption profile...... of households in Denmark. The model considers hourly consumption profiles for different household appliances and their contribution to annual household electricity consumption. When applying the model to an official scenario for annual electricity consumption, assuming non-flexible consumption due...... to a considerable introduction of electric vehicles and individual heat pumps, household consumption is expected to increase considerably, especially peak hour consumption is expected to increase.Next the paper presents results from a new experiment where household customers are given economic and/or environmental...

  19. Impact of roof integrated PV orientation on the residential electricity peak demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sadineni, Suresh B.; Atallah, Fady; Boehm, Robert F.

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► A study to demonstrate peak load reductions at the substation. ► A new residential energy efficient community named Villa Trieste is being developed. ► The peak demand from the homes has decreased by 38% through energy efficiency. ► Orientation of roof integrated PV has less influence on the summer peak demand. ► Increasing thermostat temperature during peak by 1 °C can significantly reduce peaks. -- Abstract: Peak electricity demand has been an issue in the Desert Southwest region of the US, due to extreme summer temperatures. To address this issue, a consortium was formed between the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, Pulte Homes, and NV Energy. An energy efficient residential community was developed by the team in Las Vegas with approximately 200 homes to study substation-level peak reduction strategies. A summer peak reduction of more than 65%, between 1:00 PM and 7:00 PM, compared to code standard housing developments is the targeted goal of the project. Approximately 50 homes are already built and some are occupied. The energy performances of the homes have been monitored and are presented in this paper. Several peak electric load reduction strategies such as energy efficiency in buildings, roof integrated photovoltaics (PV) and direct load control have been applied. Though all the homes in the developed community are installed with 1.8 kW p PV systems, the orientation of the PV system depends on the building orientation. Focus of this paper is to find the impact of PV orientation on the peak load from a building. In addition, different time-of-use (TOU) energy pricing options are offered by the local electrical utility company. Hence it is important to find an optimal pricing option for each building. A computer model has been developed for one of the homes in the new development using building energy simulation code, ENERGY-10. Calculations on the PV orientations have shown that a south and 220° (i.e. 40° west of due south

  20. 'Peak oil' or 'peak demand'?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chevallier, Bruno; Moncomble, Jean-Eudes; Sigonney, Pierre; Vially, Rolland; Bosseboeuf, Didier; Chateau, Bertrand

    2012-01-01

    This article reports a workshop which addressed several energy issues like the objectives and constraints of energy mix scenarios, the differences between the approaches in different countries, the cost of new technologies implemented for this purposes, how these technologies will be developed and marketed, which will be the environmental and societal acceptability of these technical choices. Different aspects and issues have been more precisely presented and discussed: the peak oil, development of shale gases and their cost (will non conventional hydrocarbons modify the peak oil and be socially accepted?), energy efficiency (its benefits, its reality in France and other countries, its position in front of the challenge of energy transition), and strategies in the transport sector (challenges for mobility, evolution towards a model of sustainable mobility)

  1. Modeling of GE Appliances in GridLAB-D: Peak Demand Reduction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fuller, Jason C.; Vyakaranam, Bharat GNVSR; Prakash Kumar, Nirupama; Leistritz, Sean M.; Parker, Graham B.

    2012-04-29

    The widespread adoption of demand response enabled appliances and thermostats can result in significant reduction to peak electrical demand and provide potential grid stabilization benefits. GE has developed a line of appliances that will have the capability of offering several levels of demand reduction actions based on information from the utility grid, often in the form of price. However due to a number of factors, including the number of demand response enabled appliances available at any given time, the reduction of diversity factor due to the synchronizing control signal, and the percentage of consumers who may override the utility signal, it can be difficult to predict the aggregate response of a large number of residences. The effects of these behaviors can be modeled and simulated in open-source software, GridLAB-D, including evaluation of appliance controls, improvement to current algorithms, and development of aggregate control methodologies. This report is the first in a series of three reports describing the potential of GE's demand response enabled appliances to provide benefits to the utility grid. The first report will describe the modeling methodology used to represent the GE appliances in the GridLAB-D simulation environment and the estimated potential for peak demand reduction at various deployment levels. The second and third reports will explore the potential of aggregated group actions to positively impact grid stability, including frequency and voltage regulation and spinning reserves, and the impacts on distribution feeder voltage regulation, including mitigation of fluctuations caused by high penetration of photovoltaic distributed generation and the effects on volt-var control schemes.

  2. Regulating electricity demand peaks for home appliances using reversible fair scheduling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kardaras, Georgios; Rossello Busquet, Ana; Iversen, Villy Bæk

    2010-01-01

    This paper describes a novel methodology for regulating electricity demand peaks for home appliances. To achieve this objective, we will make use of the reversible fair scheduling algorithm originally developed for telecommunication networks. The main concept behind this approach is the aggregati...

  3. Interdependent demands, regulatory constraint, and peak-load pricing. [Assessment of Bailey's model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nguyen, D T; Macgregor-Reid, G J

    1977-06-01

    A model of a regulated firm which includes an analysis of peak-load pricing has been formulated by E. E. Bailey in which three alternative modes of regulation on a profit-maximizing firm are considered. The main conclusion reached is that under a regulation limiting the rate of return on capital investment, price reductions are received solely by peak-users and that when regulation limiting the profit per unit of output or the return on costs is imposed, there are price reductions for all users. Bailey has expressly assumed that the demands in different periods are interdependent but has somehow failed to derive the correct price and welfare implications of this empirically highly relevant assumption. Her conclusions would have been perfectly correct for marginal revenues but are quite incorrect for prices, even if her assumption that price exceeds marginal revenues in every period holds. This present paper derives fully and rigorously the implications of regulation for prices, outputs, capacity, and social welfare for a profit-maximizing firm with interdependent demands. In section II, Bailey's model is reproduced and the optimal conditions are given. In section III, it is demonstrated that under the conditions of interdependent demands assumed by Bailey herself, her often-quoted conclusion concerning the effects of the return-on-investment regulation on the off-peak price is invalid. In section IV, the effects of the return-on-investment regulation on the optimal prices, outputs, capacity, and social welfare both for the case in which the demands in different periods are substitutes and for the case in which they are complements are examined. In section V, the pricing and welfare implications of the return-on-investment regulation are compared with the two other modes of regulation considered by Bailey. Section VI is a summary of all sections. (MCW)

  4. BENEFITS OF WILDERNESS EXPANSION WITH EXCESS DEMAND FOR INDIAN PEAKS

    OpenAIRE

    Walsh, Richard G.; Gilliam, Lynde O.

    1982-01-01

    The contingent valuation approach was applied to the problem of estimating the recreation benefits from alleviating congestion at Indian Peaks wilderness area, Colorado. A random sample of 126 individuals were interviewed while hiking and backpacking at the study site in 1979. The results provide an empirical test and confirmation of the Cesario and Freeman proposals that under conditions of excess recreational demand for existing sites, enhanced opportunities to substitute newly designated s...

  5. Forecasting Strategies for Predicting Peak Electric Load Days

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saxena, Harshit

    Academic institutions spend thousands of dollars every month on their electric power consumption. Some of these institutions follow a demand charges pricing structure; here the amount a customer pays to the utility is decided based on the total energy consumed during the month, with an additional charge based on the highest average power load required by the customer over a moving window of time as decided by the utility. Therefore, it is crucial for these institutions to minimize the time periods where a high amount of electric load is demanded over a short duration of time. In order to reduce the peak loads and have more uniform energy consumption, it is imperative to predict when these peaks occur, so that appropriate mitigation strategies can be developed. The research work presented in this thesis has been conducted for Rochester Institute of Technology (RIT), where the demand charges are decided based on a 15 minute sliding window panned over the entire month. This case study makes use of different statistical and machine learning algorithms to develop a forecasting strategy for predicting the peak electric load days of the month. The proposed strategy was tested for a whole year starting May 2015 to April 2016 during which a total of 57 peak days were observed. The model predicted a total of 74 peak days during this period, 40 of these cases were true positives, hence achieving an accuracy level of 70 percent. The results obtained with the proposed forecasting strategy are promising and demonstrate an annual savings potential worth about $80,000 for a single submeter of RIT.

  6. Peak electricity demand and social practice theories: Reframing the role of change agents in the energy sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Strengers, Yolande

    2012-01-01

    Demand managers currently draw on a limited range of psychology and economic theories in order to shift and shed peak electricity demand. These theories place individual consumers and their attitudes, behaviours and choices at the centre of the problem. This paper reframes the issue of peak electricity demand using theories of social practices, contending that the ‘problem’ is one of transforming, technologically-mediated social practices. It reflects on how this body of theory repositions and refocuses the roles and practices of professions charged with the responsibility and agency for affecting and managing energy demand. The paper identifies three areas where demand managers could refocus their attention: (i) enabling co-management relationships with consumers; (ii) working beyond their siloed roles with a broader range of human and non-human actors; and (iii) promoting new practice ‘needs’ and expectations. It concludes by critically reflecting on the limited agency attributed to ‘change agents’ such as demand managers in dominant understandings of change. Instead, the paper proposes the need to identify and establish a new group of change agents who are actively but often unwittingly involved in reconfiguring the elements of problematic peaky practices. - Highlights: ► I reframe peak electricity demand as a problem of changing social practices. ► Micro-grids, and dynamic pricing reorient household routines and enable co-management. ► Infrastructures inside and outside the home configure peaky practices. ► Demand managers are encouraged to promote and challenge consumer ‘needs’. ► I identify a new group of change agents implicated in peaky practices.

  7. An Auto Tuning Substation Peak Shaving Controller for Congestion Management Using Flexible Demand

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sossan, Fabrizio; Marinelli, Mattia

    2013-01-01

    A closed loop substation peak shaving/congestion management controller for radial distribution networks is presented. The controller it uses an individual control signal in order to shift the consumption of a population of demand side resources, DSRs. The controller auto tunes its parameters on...

  8. Monthly Electrical Energy Overview January 2017

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2017-02-01

    This publication presents the electricity characteristics and noteworthy developments in France every month: consumption, generation, renewable energies, cross-border trades and transmission system developments, along with feedback on the highlights affecting this data. This issue presents the key figures for January 2017. The cold spell of January 2017 caused a strong increase in gross electricity demand (+14.3%) compared to January 2016. The French exchange balance was in favour of imports for the second consecutive month. Demand recorded a peak on 20/01/2017 at 94.2 GW. It is the highest peak since February 2012. Corrected electricity demand trend stabilised in January 2017. Fossil fuel thermal generation was 8.3 TWh up by 71% compared to January 2016. Solar production grew significantly compared to last year with a 37.7% increase. The balance of exchanges was in favour of imports for the second consecutive month with a total of 0.95 TWh of electricity imported. 4 new installations went into service in January 2017

  9. Opportunities for peak shaving the energy demand of ship-to-shore quay cranes at container terminals

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    H. Geerlings; Robert Heij; dr. J.H.R. van Duin

    2018-01-01

    This paper presents the results of both a qualitative and a quantitative study on the possibilities for peak shaving the energy demand of ship-to-shore (STS) cranes at container terminals. The objective is to present an energy consumption model that visualizes the energy demand of STS cranes and to

  10. Opportunities for peak shaving the energy demand of ship-to-shore quay cranes at container terminals

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Geerlings, Harry; van Duin, Ron

    2018-01-01

    This paper presents the results of both a qualitative and a quantitative study on
    the possibilities for peak shaving the energy demand of ship-to-shore (STS) cranes at container terminals. The objective is to present an energy consumption model that visualizes the energy demand of STS cranes and

  11. Pay for load demand - electricity pricing with load demand component

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pyrko, Jurek; Sernhed, Kerstin; Abaravicius, Juozas

    2003-01-01

    This publication is part of a project called Direct and Indirect Load Control in Buildings. Peak load problems have attracted considerable attention in Sweden during last three winters, caused by a significant decrease in available reserve power, which is a consequence of political decisions and liberalisation of the electricity market. A possible way to lower peak loads, avoiding electricity shortages and reducing electricity costs both for users and utilities, is to make customers experience the price difference during peak load periods and, in this way, become more aware of their energy consumption pattern and load demand. As of January 1st 2001, one of the Swedish energy utilities - Sollentuna Energi - operating in the Stockholm area, introduced a new electricity tariff with differentiated grid fees based on a mean value of the peak load every month. This tariff was introduced for all residential customers in the service area. The objective of this study is to investigate the extent to which a Load Demand Component, included in electricity pricing, can influence energy use and load demand in residential buildings. What are the benefits and disadvantages for customers and utilities? This paper investigates the impact of the new tariff on the utility and different types of typical residential customers, making comparisons with previous tariff. Keywords Load demand, electricity pricing, tariff, residential customers, energy behaviour

  12. Early Detection of Peak Demand Days of Chronic Respiratory Diseases Emergency Department Visits Using Artificial Neural Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khatri, Krishan L; Tamil, Lakshman S

    2018-01-01

    Chronic respiratory diseases, mainly asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), affect the lives of people by limiting their activities in various aspects. Overcrowding of hospital emergency departments (EDs) due to respiratory diseases in certain weather and environmental pollution conditions results in the degradation of quality of medical care, and even limits its availability. A useful tool for ED managers would be to forecast peak demand days so that they can take steps to improve the availability of medical care. In this paper, we developed an artificial neural network based classifier using multilayer perceptron with back propagation algorithm that predicts peak event (peak demand days) of patients with respiratory diseases, mainly asthma and COPD visiting EDs in Dallas County of Texas in the United States. The precision and recall for peak event class were 77.1% and 78.0%, respectively, and those for nonpeak events were 83.9% and 83.2%, respectively. The overall accuracy of the system is 81.0%.

  13. Energy Management in Smart Cities Based on Internet of Things: Peak Demand Reduction and Energy Savings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahapatra, Chinmaya; Moharana, Akshaya Kumar; Leung, Victor C M

    2017-12-05

    Around the globe, innovation with integrating information and communication technologies (ICT) with physical infrastructure is a top priority for governments in pursuing smart, green living to improve energy efficiency, protect the environment, improve the quality of life, and bolster economy competitiveness. Cities today faces multifarious challenges, among which energy efficiency of homes and residential dwellings is a key requirement. Achieving it successfully with the help of intelligent sensors and contextual systems would help build smart cities of the future. In a Smart home environment Home Energy Management plays a critical role in finding a suitable and reliable solution to curtail the peak demand and achieve energy conservation. In this paper, a new method named as Home Energy Management as a Service (HEMaaS) is proposed which is based on neural network based Q -learning algorithm. Although several attempts have been made in the past to address similar problems, the models developed do not cater to maximize the user convenience and robustness of the system. In this paper, authors have proposed an advanced Neural Fitted Q -learning method which is self-learning and adaptive. The proposed method provides an agile, flexible and energy efficient decision making system for home energy management. A typical Canadian residential dwelling model has been used in this paper to test the proposed method. Based on analysis, it was found that the proposed method offers a fast and viable solution to reduce the demand and conserve energy during peak period. It also helps reducing the carbon footprint of residential dwellings. Once adopted, city blocks with significant residential dwellings can significantly reduce the total energy consumption by reducing or shifting their energy demand during peak period. This would definitely help local power distribution companies to optimize their resources and keep the tariff low due to curtailment of peak demand.

  14. Energy Management in Smart Cities Based on Internet of Things: Peak Demand Reduction and Energy Savings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chinmaya Mahapatra

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Around the globe, innovation with integrating information and communication technologies (ICT with physical infrastructure is a top priority for governments in pursuing smart, green living to improve energy efficiency, protect the environment, improve the quality of life, and bolster economy competitiveness. Cities today faces multifarious challenges, among which energy efficiency of homes and residential dwellings is a key requirement. Achieving it successfully with the help of intelligent sensors and contextual systems would help build smart cities of the future. In a Smart home environment Home Energy Management plays a critical role in finding a suitable and reliable solution to curtail the peak demand and achieve energy conservation. In this paper, a new method named as Home Energy Management as a Service (HEMaaS is proposed which is based on neural network based Q-learning algorithm. Although several attempts have been made in the past to address similar problems, the models developed do not cater to maximize the user convenience and robustness of the system. In this paper, authors have proposed an advanced Neural Fitted Q-learning method which is self-learning and adaptive. The proposed method provides an agile, flexible and energy efficient decision making system for home energy management. A typical Canadian residential dwelling model has been used in this paper to test the proposed method. Based on analysis, it was found that the proposed method offers a fast and viable solution to reduce the demand and conserve energy during peak period. It also helps reducing the carbon footprint of residential dwellings. Once adopted, city blocks with significant residential dwellings can significantly reduce the total energy consumption by reducing or shifting their energy demand during peak period. This would definitely help local power distribution companies to optimize their resources and keep the tariff low due to curtailment of peak demand.

  15. A fuzzy-stochastic simulation-optimization model for planning electric power systems with considering peak-electricity demand: A case study of Qingdao, China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yu, L.; Li, Y.P.; Huang, G.H.

    2016-01-01

    In this study, a FSSOM (fuzzy-stochastic simulation-optimization model) is developed for planning EPS (electric power systems) with considering peak demand under uncertainty. FSSOM integrates techniques of SVR (support vector regression), Monte Carlo simulation, and FICMP (fractile interval chance-constrained mixed-integer programming). In FSSOM, uncertainties expressed as fuzzy boundary intervals and random variables can be effectively tackled. In addition, SVR coupled Monte Carlo technique is used for predicting the peak-electricity demand. The FSSOM is applied to planning EPS for the City of Qingdao, China. Solutions of electricity generation pattern to satisfy the city's peak demand under different probability levels and p-necessity levels have been generated. Results reveal that the city's electricity supply from renewable energies would be low (only occupying 8.3% of the total electricity generation). Compared with the energy model without considering peak demand, the FSSOM can better guarantee the city's power supply and thus reduce the system failure risk. The findings can help decision makers not only adjust the existing electricity generation/supply pattern but also coordinate the conflict interaction among system cost, energy supply security, pollutant mitigation, as well as constraint-violation risk. - Highlights: • FSSOM (Fuzzy-stochastic simulation-optimization model) is developed for planning EPS. • It can address uncertainties as fuzzy-boundary intervals and random variables. • FSSOM can satisfy peak-electricity demand and optimize power allocation. • Solutions under different probability levels and p-necessity levels are analyzed. • Results create tradeoff among system cost and peak-electricity demand violation risk.

  16. Demand side management program evaluation based on industrial and commercial field data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eissa, M.M.

    2011-01-01

    Demand Response is increasingly viewed as an important tool for use by the electric utility industry in meeting the growing demand for electricity. There are two basic categories of demand response options: time varying retail tariffs and incentive Demand Response Programs. is applying the time varying retail tariffs program, which is not suitable according to the studied load curves captured from the industrial and commercial sectors. Different statistical studies on daily load curves for consumers connected to 22 kV lines are classified. The load curve criteria used for classification is based on peak ratio and night ratio. The data considered here is a set of 120 annual load curves corresponding to the electric power consumption (the western area in the King Saudi Arabia (KSA)) of many clients in winter and some months in the summer (peak period). The study is based on real data from several Saudi customer sectors in many geographical areas with larger commercial and industrial customers. The study proved that the suitable Demand Response for the ESC is the incentive program. - Highlights: → Study helps in selecting the proper demand side program. → A credit will be given for the customers during summer months. → Reduction in the electric bill. → Monthly bill credit is decreased based on customers' peak load reduction. → Guide for applying the proper demand side program suitable for the utility and customers.

  17. High Electricity Demand in the Northeast U.S.: PJM Reliability Network and Peaking Unit Impacts on Air Quality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farkas, Caroline M; Moeller, Michael D; Felder, Frank A; Henderson, Barron H; Carlton, Annmarie G

    2016-08-02

    On high electricity demand days, when air quality is often poor, regional transmission organizations (RTOs), such as PJM Interconnection, ensure reliability of the grid by employing peak-use electric generating units (EGUs). These "peaking units" are exempt from some federal and state air quality rules. We identify RTO assignment and peaking unit classification for EGUs in the Eastern U.S. and estimate air quality for four emission scenarios with the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model during the July 2006 heat wave. Further, we population-weight ambient values as a surrogate for potential population exposure. Emissions from electricity reliability networks negatively impact air quality in their own region and in neighboring geographic areas. Monitored and controlled PJM peaking units are generally located in economically depressed areas and can contribute up to 87% of hourly maximum PM2.5 mass locally. Potential population exposure to peaking unit PM2.5 mass is highest in the model domain's most populated cities. Average daily temperature and national gross domestic product steer peaking unit heat input. Air quality planning that capitalizes on a priori knowledge of local electricity demand and economics may provide a more holistic approach to protect human health within the context of growing energy needs in a changing world.

  18. Modelling and short-term forecasting of daily peak power demand in Victoria using two-dimensional wavelet based SDP models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Truong, Nguyen-Vu; Wang, Liuping; Wong, Peter K.C.

    2008-01-01

    Power demand forecasting is of vital importance to the management and planning of power system operations which include generation, transmission, distribution, as well as system's security analysis and economic pricing processes. This paper concerns the modeling and short-term forecast of daily peak power demand in the state of Victoria, Australia. In this study, a two-dimensional wavelet based state dependent parameter (SDP) modelling approach is used to produce a compact mathematical model for this complex nonlinear dynamic system. In this approach, a nonlinear system is expressed by a set of linear regressive input and output terms (state variables) multiplied by the respective state dependent parameters that carry the nonlinearities in the form of 2-D wavelet series expansions. This model is identified based on historical data, descriptively representing the relationship and interaction between various components which affect the peak power demand of a certain day. The identified model has been used to forecast daily peak power demand in the state of Victoria, Australia in the time period from the 9th of August 2007 to the 24th of August 2007. With a MAPE (mean absolute prediction error) of 1.9%, it has clearly implied the effectiveness of the identified model. (author)

  19. Monthly electric energy demand forecasting with neural networks and Fourier series

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gonzalez-Romera, E.; Jaramillo-Moran, M.A.; Carmona-Fernandez, D.

    2008-01-01

    Medium-term electric energy demand forecasting is a useful tool for grid maintenance planning and market research of electric energy companies. Several methods, such as ARIMA, regression or artificial intelligence, have been usually used to carry out those predictions. Some approaches include weather or economic variables, which strongly influence electric energy demand. Economic variables usually influence the general series trend, while weather provides a periodic behavior because of its seasonal nature. This work investigates the periodic behavior of the Spanish monthly electric demand series, obtained by rejecting the trend from the consumption series. A novel hybrid approach is proposed: the periodic behavior is forecasted with a Fourier series while the trend is predicted with a neural network. Satisfactory results have been obtained, with a lower than 2% MAPE, which improve those reached when only neural networks or ARIMA were used for the same purpose. (author)

  20. Secular trends in monthly heating and cooling demands in Croatia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cvitan, Lidija; Sokol Jurković, Renata

    2016-08-01

    This paper analyzes long-term heating and cooling trends for five locations in Croatia from 1901 to 2008 to assist in the revision of Croatia's heating and cooling energy policy. Trends in monthly heating degree-days (HDD) and cooling degree-days (CDD) were determined for three related temperature threshold values each and analyzed to provide insight into the influence of desired thermal comfort on the extent of changes in energy consumption. Monthly trends in the corresponding number of heating days (HD) and cooling days (CD) were also analyzed. A basic investigation of HDD, HD, CDD, and CD trends proved to be essential to the development of a complete description of important climate-related conditions that impact energy demands associated with heating and cooling. In a few cases, the dependence of the trends on the implemented temperature thresholds was rather pronounced and was reflected in great spatial and temporal variations in monthly trends. The statistical significance of the detected monthly trends illustrated a diverse range of possible impacts of climate changes on heating and cooling energy consumption both across and within three main climate regions in Croatia (continental, mountainous, and maritime). It is confirmed that the applied monthly scale for analyses is suitable for assessing heating and cooling practices.

  1. Impacts of Climate Change on Energy Consumption and Peak Demand in Buildings: A Detailed Regional Approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dirks, James A.; Gorrissen, Willy J.; Hathaway, John E.; Skorski, Daniel C.; Scott, Michael J.; Pulsipher, Trenton C.; Huang, Maoyi; Liu, Ying; Rice, Jennie S.

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents the results of numerous commercial and residential building simulations, with the purpose of examining the impact of climate change on peak and annual building energy consumption over the portion of the Eastern Interconnection (EIC) located in the United States. The climate change scenario considered (IPCC A2 scenario as downscaled from the CASCaDE data set) has changes in mean climate characteristics as well as changes in the frequency and duration of intense weather events. This investigation examines building energy demand for three annual periods representative of climate trends in the CASCaDE data set at the beginning, middle, and end of the century--2004, 2052, and 2089. Simulations were performed using the Building ENergy Demand (BEND) model which is a detailed simulation platform built around EnergyPlus. BEND was developed in collaboration with the Platform for Regional Integrated Modeling and Analysis (PRIMA), a modeling framework designed to simulate the complex interactions among climate, energy, water, and land at decision-relevant spatial scales. Over 26,000 building configurations of different types, sizes, vintages, and, characteristics which represent the population of buildings within the EIC, are modeled across the 3 EIC time zones using the future climate from 100 locations within the target region, resulting in nearly 180,000 spatially relevant simulated demand profiles for each of the 3 years. In this study, the building stock characteristics are held constant based on the 2005 building stock in order to isolate and present results that highlight the impact of the climate signal on commercial and residential energy demand. Results of this analysis compare well with other analyses at their finest level of specificity. This approach, however, provides a heretofore unprecedented level of specificity across multiple spectrums including spatial, temporal, and building characteristics. This capability enables the ability to

  2. Introducing a demand-based electricity distribution tariff in the residential sector: Demand response and customer perception

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bartusch, Cajsa; Wallin, Fredrik; Odlare, Monica; Vassileva, Iana; Wester, Lars

    2011-01-01

    Increased demand response is essential to fully exploit the Swedish power system, which in turn is an absolute prerequisite for meeting political goals related to energy efficiency and climate change. Demand response programs are, nonetheless, still exceptional in the residential sector of the Swedish electricity market, one contributory factor being lack of knowledge about the extent of the potential gains. In light of these circumstances, this empirical study set out with the intention of estimating the scope of households' response to, and assessing customers' perception of, a demand-based time-of-use electricity distribution tariff. The results show that households as a whole have a fairly high opinion of the demand-based tariff and act on its intrinsic price signals by decreasing peak demand in peak periods and shifting electricity use from peak to off-peak periods. - Highlights: → Households are sympathetic to demand-based tariffs, seeing as they relate to environmental issues. → Households adjust their electricity use to the price signals of demand-based tariffs. → Demand-based tariffs lead to a shift in electricity use from peak to off-peak hours. → Demand-based tariffs lead to a decrease in maximum demand in peak periods. → Magnitude of these effects increases over time.

  3. Climate change is projected to have severe impacts on the frequency and intensity of peak electricity demand across the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Auffhammer, Maximilian; Baylis, Patrick; Hausman, Catherine H

    2017-02-21

    It has been suggested that climate change impacts on the electric sector will account for the majority of global economic damages by the end of the current century and beyond [Rose S, et al. (2014) Understanding the Social Cost of Carbon: A Technical Assessment ]. The empirical literature has shown significant increases in climate-driven impacts on overall consumption, yet has not focused on the cost implications of the increased intensity and frequency of extreme events driving peak demand, which is the highest load observed in a period. We use comprehensive, high-frequency data at the level of load balancing authorities to parameterize the relationship between average or peak electricity demand and temperature for a major economy. Using statistical models, we analyze multiyear data from 166 load balancing authorities in the United States. We couple the estimated temperature response functions for total daily consumption and daily peak load with 18 downscaled global climate models (GCMs) to simulate climate change-driven impacts on both outcomes. We show moderate and heterogeneous changes in consumption, with an average increase of 2.8% by end of century. The results of our peak load simulations, however, suggest significant increases in the intensity and frequency of peak events throughout the United States, assuming today's technology and electricity market fundamentals. As the electricity grid is built to endure maximum load, our findings have significant implications for the construction of costly peak generating capacity, suggesting additional peak capacity costs of up to 180 billion dollars by the end of the century under business-as-usual.

  4. Program Design Analysis using BEopt Building Energy Optimization Software: Defining a Technology Pathway Leading to New Homes with Zero Peak Cooling Demand; Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anderson, R.; Christensen, C.; Horowitz, S.

    2006-08-01

    An optimization method based on the evaluation of a broad range of different combinations of specific energy efficiency and renewable-energy options is used to determine the least-cost pathway to the development of new homes with zero peak cooling demand. The optimization approach conducts a sequential search of a large number of possible option combinations and uses the most cost-effective alternatives to generate a least-cost curve to achieve home-performance levels ranging from a Title 24-compliant home to a home that uses zero net source energy on an annual basis. By evaluating peak cooling load reductions on the least-cost curve, it is then possible to determine the most cost-effective combination of energy efficiency and renewable-energy options that both maximize annual energy savings and minimize peak-cooling demand.

  5. Chapter 10: Peak Demand and Time-Differentiated Energy Savings Cross-Cutting Protocol. The Uniform Methods Project: Methods for Determining Energy Efficiency Savings for Specific Measures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kurnik, Charles W [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Stern, Frank [Navigant, Boulder, CO (United States); Spencer, Justin [Navigant, Boulder, CO (United States)

    2017-10-03

    Savings from electric energy efficiency measures and programs are often expressed in terms of annual energy and presented as kilowatt-hours per year (kWh/year). However, for a full assessment of the value of these savings, it is usually necessary to consider the measure or program's impact on peak demand as well as time-differentiated energy savings. This cross-cutting protocol describes methods for estimating the peak demand and time-differentiated energy impacts of measures implemented through energy efficiency programs.

  6. Electricity demand and storage dispatch modeling for buildings and implications for the smartgrid

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Menglian; Meinrenken, Christoph

    2013-04-01

    As an enabler for demand response (DR), electricity storage in buildings has the potential to lower costs and carbon footprint of grid electricity while simultaneously mitigating grid strain and increasing its flexibility to integrate renewables (central or distributed). We present a stochastic model to simulate minute-by-minute electricity demand of buildings and analyze the resulting electricity costs under actual, currently available DR-enabling tariffs in New York State, namely a peak/offpeak tariff charging by consumed energy (monthly total kWh) and a time of use tariff charging by power demand (monthly peak kW). We then introduce a variety of electrical storage options (from flow batteries to flywheels) and determine how DR via temporary storage may increase the overall net present value (NPV) for consumers (comparing the reduced cost of electricity to capital and maintenance costs of the storage). We find that, under the total-energy tariff, only medium-term storage options such as batteries offer positive NPV, and only at the low end of storage costs (optimistic scenario). Under the peak-demand tariff, however, even short-term storage such as flywheels and superconducting magnetic energy offer positive NPV. Therefore, these offer significant economic incentive to enable DR without affecting the consumption habits of buildings' residents. We discuss implications for smartgrid communication and our future work on real-time price tariffs.

  7. A fresh look at weather impact on peak electricity demand and energy use of buildings using 30-year actual weather data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hong, Tianzhen; Chang, Wen-Kuei; Lin, Hung-Wen

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: • Weather has a significant impact on both the peak electricity demand and energy use. • Weather impact varies with building type, building efficiency level, and location. • Simulated results using TMY3 weather data can under or over estimate those of AMY. • It is crucial to assess performance of buildings using long-term actual weather data. • Findings enable building stakeholders to make better decisions on weather impact. - Abstract: Buildings consume more than one third of the world’s total primary energy. Weather plays a unique and significant role as it directly affects the thermal loads and thus energy performance of buildings. The traditional simulated energy performance using Typical Meteorological Year (TMY) weather data represents the building performance for a typical year, but not necessarily the average or typical long-term performance as buildings with different energy systems and designs respond differently to weather changes. Furthermore, the single-year TMY simulations do not provide a range of results that capture yearly variations due to changing weather, which is important for building energy management, and for performing risk assessments of energy efficiency investments. This paper employs large-scale building simulation (a total of 3162 runs) to study the weather impact on peak electricity demand and energy use with the 30-year (1980–2009) Actual Meteorological Year (AMY) weather data for three types of office buildings at two design efficiency levels, across all 17 ASHRAE climate zones. The simulated results using the AMY data are compared to those from the TMY3 data to determine and analyze the differences. Besides further demonstration, as done by other studies, that actual weather has a significant impact on both the peak electricity demand and energy use of buildings, the main findings from the current study include: (1) annual weather variation has a greater impact on the peak electricity demand than it does

  8. Peak oil demand: the role of fuel efficiency and alternative fuels in a global oil production decline.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brandt, Adam R; Millard-Ball, Adam; Ganser, Matthew; Gorelick, Steven M

    2013-07-16

    Some argue that peak conventional oil production is imminent due to physical resource scarcity. We examine the alternative possibility of reduced oil use due to improved efficiency and oil substitution. Our model uses historical relationships to project future demand for (a) transport services, (b) all liquid fuels, and (c) substitution with alternative energy carriers, including electricity. Results show great increases in passenger and freight transport activity, but less reliance on oil. Demand for liquids inputs to refineries declines significantly after 2070. By 2100 transport energy demand rises >1000% in Asia, while flattening in North America (+23%) and Europe (-20%). Conventional oil demand declines after 2035, and cumulative oil production is 1900 Gbbl from 2010 to 2100 (close to the U.S. Geological Survey median estimate of remaining oil, which only includes projected discoveries through 2025). These results suggest that effort is better spent to determine and influence the trajectory of oil substitution and efficiency improvement rather than to focus on oil resource scarcity. The results also imply that policy makers should not rely on liquid fossil fuel scarcity to constrain damage from climate change. However, there is an unpredictable range of emissions impacts depending on which mix of substitutes for conventional oil gains dominance-oil sands, electricity, coal-to-liquids, or others.

  9. Generation Mix Study Focusing on Nuclear Power by Practical Peak Forecast

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shin, Jung Ho; Roh, Myung Sub

    2013-01-01

    The excessive underestimation can lead to a range of problem; expansion of LNG plant requiring short construction period, the following increase of electricity price, low reserve margin and inefficient configuration of power source. With regard to nuclear power, the share of the stable and economic base load plant, nuclear power, can reduce under the optimum level. Amongst varied factors which contribute to the underestimate, immoderate target for demand side management (DSM) including double deduction of the constraint amount by DSM from peak demand forecast is one of the causes. The hypothesis in this study is that the better optimum generation mix including the adequate share of nuclear power can be obtained under the condition of the peak demand forecast without deduction of DSM target because this forecast is closer to the actual peak demand. In this study, the hypothesis is verified with comparison between peak demand forecast before (or after) DSM target application and the actual peak demand in the 3 rd through 5 th BPE from 2006 to 2010. Furthermore, this research compares and analyzes several generation mix in 2027 focusing on the nuclear power by a few conditions using the WASP-IV program on the basis of the 6 th BPE in 2013. According to the comparative analysis on the peak demand forecast and actual peak demand from 2006 to 2010, the peak demand forecasts without the deduction of the DSM target is closer to the actual peak demand than the peak demand forecasts considering the DSM target in the 3 th , 4 th , 5 th entirely. In addition, the generation mix until 2027 is examined by the WASP-IV. As a result of the program run, when considering the peak demand forecast without DSM reflection, since the base load plants including nuclear power take up adequate proportion, stable and economic supply of electricity can be achieved. On the contrary, in case of planning based on the peak demand forecast with DSM reflected and then compensating the shortage by

  10. Demand response in energy markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Skytte, K.; Birk Mortensen, J.

    2004-11-01

    Improving the ability of energy demand to respond to wholesale prices during critical periods of the spot market can reduce the total costs of reliably meeting demand, and the level and volatility of the prices. This fact has lead to a growing interest in the short-run demand response. There has especially been a growing interest in the electricity market where peak-load periods with high spot prices and occasional local blackouts have recently been seen. Market concentration at the supply side can result in even higher peak-load prices. Demand response by shifting demand from peak to base-load periods can counteract the market power in the peak-load. However, demand response has so far been modest since the current short-term price elasticity seems to be small. This is also the case for related markets, for example, green certificates where the demand is determined as a percentage of the power demand, or for heat and natural gas markets. This raises a number of interesting research issues: 1) Demand response in different energy markets, 2) Estimation of price elasticity and flexibility, 3) Stimulation of demand response, 4) Regulation, policy and modelling aspects, 5) Demand response and market power at the supply side, 6) Energy security of supply, 7) Demand response in forward, spot, ancillary service, balance and capacity markets, 8) Demand response in deviated markets, e.g., emission, futures, and green certificate markets, 9) Value of increased demand response, 10) Flexible households. (BA)

  11. Generation Mix Study Focusing on Nuclear Power by Practical Peak Forecast

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shin, Jung Ho; Roh, Myung Sub [KEPCO International Nuclear Graduate School, Ulsan (Korea, Republic of)

    2013-10-15

    The excessive underestimation can lead to a range of problem; expansion of LNG plant requiring short construction period, the following increase of electricity price, low reserve margin and inefficient configuration of power source. With regard to nuclear power, the share of the stable and economic base load plant, nuclear power, can reduce under the optimum level. Amongst varied factors which contribute to the underestimate, immoderate target for demand side management (DSM) including double deduction of the constraint amount by DSM from peak demand forecast is one of the causes. The hypothesis in this study is that the better optimum generation mix including the adequate share of nuclear power can be obtained under the condition of the peak demand forecast without deduction of DSM target because this forecast is closer to the actual peak demand. In this study, the hypothesis is verified with comparison between peak demand forecast before (or after) DSM target application and the actual peak demand in the 3{sup rd} through 5{sup th} BPE from 2006 to 2010. Furthermore, this research compares and analyzes several generation mix in 2027 focusing on the nuclear power by a few conditions using the WASP-IV program on the basis of the 6{sup th} BPE in 2013. According to the comparative analysis on the peak demand forecast and actual peak demand from 2006 to 2010, the peak demand forecasts without the deduction of the DSM target is closer to the actual peak demand than the peak demand forecasts considering the DSM target in the 3{sup th}, 4{sup th}, 5{sup th} entirely. In addition, the generation mix until 2027 is examined by the WASP-IV. As a result of the program run, when considering the peak demand forecast without DSM reflection, since the base load plants including nuclear power take up adequate proportion, stable and economic supply of electricity can be achieved. On the contrary, in case of planning based on the peak demand forecast with DSM reflected and then

  12. Managing peak loads in energy grids: Comparative economic analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhuk, A.; Zeigarnik, Yu.; Buzoverov, E.; Sheindlin, A.

    2016-01-01

    One of the key issues in modern energy technology is managing the imbalance between the generated power and the load, particularly during times of peak demand. The increasing use of renewable energy sources makes this problem even more acute. Various existing technologies, including stationary battery energy storage systems (BESS), can be employed to provide additional power during peak demand times. In the future, integration of on-board batteries of the growing fleet of electric vehicles (EV) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) into the grid can provide power during peak demand hours (vehicle-to-grid, or V2G technology). This work provides cost estimates of managing peak energy demands using traditional technologies, such as maneuverable power plants, conventional hydroelectric, pumped storage plants and peaker generators, as well as BESS and V2G technologies. The derived estimates provide both per kWh and kW year of energy supplied to the grid. The analysis demonstrates that the use of battery storage is economically justified for short peak demand periods of <1 h. For longer durations, the most suitable technology remains the use of maneuverable steam gas power plants, gas turbine,reciprocating gas engine peaker generators, conventional hydroelectric, pumped storage plants. - Highlights: • Cost of managing peak energy demand employing different technologies are estimated. • Traditional technologies, stationary battery storage and V2G are compared. • Battery storage is economically justified for peak demand periods of <1 h. • V2G appears to have better efficiency than stationary battery storage in low voltage power grids.

  13. Demand oriented biogas production to cover peak load; Bedarfsorientierte Biogasproduktion zur Erzeugung von Spitzenlaststrom. Weiterentwicklung der Biogastechnologie von Grundlast- zur Regelenergieerzeugung

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wallmann, Rainer; Ganagin, Waldemar; Loewe, Kirsten; Loewen, Achim [HAWK - Hochschule fuer angewandte Wissenschaft und Kunst, Fachhochschule Hildesheim, Holzminden, Goettingen (Germany)

    2010-08-15

    In contrast to solar and wind energy, biogas production is independent from environmental influences. The better part of biogas plants provide almost constant power and, thus, cover base load. However, it is possible to match biogas production with changing demand in different ways. Besides installing sufficiently dimensioned storages, a flexible generation of gas is possible by adjusting the digestion processes and installing appropriate control technologies. This enables flexible biogas production oriented towards customer demand. Peak load energy can be produced and marketed even without the advantage of reimbursement guaranteed by the renewable energy law. The Department of Sustainable Energy and Environmental Technology NEUTec at the University of Applied Science and Arts HAWK in Goettingen has carried out a research project to prove this concept of flexible biogas production. Operating a two-stage digestion plant, the capability to cover peak load was investigated by digesting energyrich liquid substrate in fixed bed reactors that represented the methanogenesis stage. These reactors showed extreme stability and flexibility. The promising results let expect a great potential of fixed bed reactors for on-demand biogas production from liquid substrates. In addition, with up to 80 % very high methane contents could be achieved in the produced gas. (orig.)

  14. A Fresh Look at Weather Impact on Peak Electricity Demand and Energy Use of Buildings Using 30-Year Actual Weather Data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hong, Tianzhen; Chang, Wen-Kuei; Lin, Hung-Wen

    2013-05-01

    Buildings consume more than one third of the world?s total primary energy. Weather plays a unique and significant role as it directly affects the thermal loads and thus energy performance of buildings. The traditional simulated energy performance using Typical Meteorological Year (TMY) weather data represents the building performance for a typical year, but not necessarily the average or typical long-term performance as buildings with different energy systems and designs respond differently to weather changes. Furthermore, the single-year TMY simulations do not provide a range of results that capture yearly variations due to changing weather, which is important for building energy management, and for performing risk assessments of energy efficiency investments. This paper employs large-scale building simulation (a total of 3162 runs) to study the weather impact on peak electricity demand and energy use with the 30-year (1980 to 2009) Actual Meteorological Year (AMY) weather data for three types of office buildings at two design efficiency levels, across all 17 ASHRAE climate zones. The simulated results using the AMY data are compared to those from the TMY3 data to determine and analyze the differences. Besides further demonstration, as done by other studies, that actual weather has a significant impact on both the peak electricity demand and energy use of buildings, the main findings from the current study include: 1) annual weather variation has a greater impact on the peak electricity demand than it does on energy use in buildings; 2) the simulated energy use using the TMY3 weather data is not necessarily representative of the average energy use over a long period, and the TMY3 results can be significantly higher or lower than those from the AMY data; 3) the weather impact is greater for buildings in colder climates than warmer climates; 4) the weather impact on the medium-sized office building was the greatest, followed by the large office and then the small

  15. Practical load management - Peak shaving using photovoltaics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berger, W.

    2009-01-01

    This article takes a look at how photovoltaic (PV) power generation can be used in a practical way to meet peak demands for electricity. Advice is provided on how photovoltaics can provide peak load 'shaving' through the correlation between its production and the peak loads encountered during the day. The situation regarding feed-in tariffs in Italy is discussed, as are further examples of installations in Germany and Austria. Further, an initiative of the American Southern California Edison utility is discussed which foresees the installation of large PV plant on the roofs of commercial premises to provide local generation of peak energy and thus relieve demands on their power transportation network.

  16. Using Hydrated Salt Phase Change Materials for Residential Air Conditioning Peak Demand Reduction and Energy Conservation in Coastal and Transitional Climates in the State of California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Kyoung Ok

    The recent rapid economic and population growth in the State of California have led to a significant increase in air conditioning use, especially in areas of the State with coastal and transitional climates. This fact makes that the electric peak demand be dominated by air conditioning use of residential buildings in the summer time. This extra peak demand caused by the use of air conditioning equipment lasts only a few days out of the year. As a result, unavoidable power outages have occurred when electric supply could not keep up with such electric demand. This thesis proposed a possible solution to this problem by using building thermal mass via phase change materials to reduce peak air conditioning demand loads. This proposed solution was tested via a new wall called Phase Change Frame Wall (PCFW). The PCFW is a typical residential frame wall in which Phase Change Materials (PCMs) were integrated to add thermal mass. The thermal performance of the PCFWs was first evaluated, experimentally, in two test houses, built for this purpose, located in Lawrence, KS and then via computer simulations of residential buildings located in coastal and transitional climates in California. In this thesis, a hydrated salt PCM was used, which was added in concentrations of 10% and 20% by weight of the interior sheathing of the walls. Based on the experimental results, under Lawrence, KS weather, the PCFWs at 10% and 20% of PCM concentrations reduced the peak heat transfer rates by 27.0% and 27.3%, on average, of all four walls, respectively. Simulated results using California climate data indicated that PCFWs would reduce peak heat transfer rates by 8% and 19% at 10% PCM concentration and 12.2% and 27% at 20% PCM concentration for the coastal and transitional climates, respectively. Furthermore, the PCFWs, at 10% PCM concentration, would reduce the space cooling load and the annual energy consumption by 10.4% and 7.2%, on average in both climates, respectively.

  17. Environmental impacts of public transport. Why peak-period travellers cause a greater environmental burden than off-peak travellers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rietveld, P.

    2002-01-01

    Given the difference between peak and off-peak occupancy rates in public transport, emissions per traveller kilometre are lower in the peak than in the off-peak period, whereas the opposite pattern is observed for cars. It is argued that it is much more fruitful to analyse environmental effects in marginal terms. This calls for a careful analysis of capacity management policies of public transport suppliers that are facing increased demand during both peak and off-peak periods. A detailed analysis of capacity management by the Netherlands Railways (NS) revealed that off-peak capacity supply is mainly dictated by the demand levels during the peak period. The analysis included the effects of increased frequency and increased vehicle size on environmental impacts, while environmental economies of vehicle size were also taken into account. The main conclusion is that the marginal environmental burden during the peak hours is much higher than is usually thought, whereas it is almost zero during the off-peak period. This implies a pattern that is the precise opposite of the average environmental burden. Thus, an analysis of environmental effects of public transport based on average performance would yield misleading conclusions [nl

  18. Electric peak power forecasting by year 2025

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alsayegh, O.A.; Al-Matar, O.A.; Fairouz, F.A.; Al-Mulla Ali, A.

    2005-01-01

    Peak power demand in Kuwait up to the year 2025 was predicted using an artificial neural network (ANN) model. The aim of the study was to investigate the effect of air conditioning (A/C) units on long-term power demand. Five socio-economic factors were selected as inputs for the simulation: (1) gross national product, (2) population, (3) number of buildings, (4) imports of A/C units, and (5) index of industrial production. The study used socio-economic data from 1978 to 2000. Historical data of the first 10 years of the studied time period were used to train the ANN. The electrical network was then simulated to forecast peak power for the following 11 years. The calculated error was then used for years in which power consumption data were not available. The study demonstrated that average peak power rates increased by 4100 MW every 5 years. Various scenarios related to changes in population, the number of buildings, and the quantity of A/C units were then modelled to estimate long-term peak power demand. Results of the study demonstrated that population had the strongest impact on future power demand, while the number of buildings had the smallest impact. It was concluded that peak power growth can be controlled through the use of different immigration policies, increased A/C efficiency, and the use of vertical housing. 7 refs., 2 tabs., 6 figs

  19. Electric peak power forecasting by year 2025

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alsayegh, O.A.; Al-Matar, O.A.; Fairouz, F.A.; Al-Mulla Ali, A. [Kuwait Inst. for Scientific Research, Kuwait City (Kuwait). Div. of Environment and Urban Development

    2005-07-01

    Peak power demand in Kuwait up to the year 2025 was predicted using an artificial neural network (ANN) model. The aim of the study was to investigate the effect of air conditioning (A/C) units on long-term power demand. Five socio-economic factors were selected as inputs for the simulation: (1) gross national product, (2) population, (3) number of buildings, (4) imports of A/C units, and (5) index of industrial production. The study used socio-economic data from 1978 to 2000. Historical data of the first 10 years of the studied time period were used to train the ANN. The electrical network was then simulated to forecast peak power for the following 11 years. The calculated error was then used for years in which power consumption data were not available. The study demonstrated that average peak power rates increased by 4100 MW every 5 years. Various scenarios related to changes in population, the number of buildings, and the quantity of A/C units were then modelled to estimate long-term peak power demand. Results of the study demonstrated that population had the strongest impact on future power demand, while the number of buildings had the smallest impact. It was concluded that peak power growth can be controlled through the use of different immigration policies, increased A/C efficiency, and the use of vertical housing. 7 refs., 2 tabs., 6 figs.

  20. Sensitivity analysis of energy demands on performance of CCHP system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, C.Z.; Shi, Y.M.; Huang, X.H.

    2008-01-01

    Sensitivity analysis of energy demands is carried out in this paper to study their influence on performance of CCHP system. Energy demand is a very important and complex factor in the optimization model of CCHP system. Average, uncertainty and historical peaks are adopted to describe energy demands. The mix-integer nonlinear programming model (MINLP) which can reflect the three aspects of energy demands is established. Numerical studies are carried out based on energy demands of a hotel and a hospital. The influence of average, uncertainty and peaks of energy demands on optimal facility scheme and economic advantages of CCHP system are investigated. The optimization results show that the optimal GT's capacity and economy of CCHP system mainly lie on the average energy demands. Sum of capacities of GB and HE is equal to historical heating demand peaks, and sum of capacities of AR and ER are equal to historical cooling demand peaks. Maximum of PG is sensitive with historical peaks of energy demands and not influenced by uncertainty of energy demands, while the corresponding influence on DH is adverse

  1. System dynamics model of Hubbert Peak for China's oil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tao Zaipu; Li Mingyu

    2007-01-01

    American geophysicist M. King Hubbert in 1956 first introduced a logistic equation to estimate the peak and lifetime production for oil of USA. Since then, a fierce debate ensued on the so-called Hubbert Peak, including also its methodology. This paper proposes to use the generic STELLA model to simulate Hubbert Peak, particularly for the Chinese oil production. This model is demonstrated as being robust. We used three scenarios to estimate the Chinese oil peak: according to scenario 1 of this model, the Hubbert Peak for China's crude oil production appears to be in 2019 with a value of 199.5 million tonnes, which is about 1.1 times the 2005 output. Before the peak comes, Chinese oil output will grow by about 1-2% annually, after the peak, however, the output will fall. By 2040, the annual production of Chinese crude oil would be equivalent to the level of 1990. During the coming 20 years, the crude oil demand of China will probably grow at the rate of 2-3% annually, and the gap between domestic supply and total demand may be more than half of this demand

  2. An analysis of a demand charge electricity grid tariff in the residential sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stokke, A. V.; Doorman, G.L.; Ericson, T.

    2010-01-01

    This paper analyzes the demand response from residential electricity consumers to a demand charge grid tariff. The tariff charges the maximum hourly peak consumption in each of the winter months Dec, Jan, and Feb, thus giving incentives to reduce peak consumption. We use hourly electricity consumption data from 443 households, as well as data on their grid and power prices, the local temperature, wind speed, and hours of daylight. The panel data set is analyzed with a fixed effects regression model. The estimates indicate average demand reductions up to 0.37 kWh/h per household in response to the tariff. This is on average a 5% reduction, with a maximum reduction of 12% in hour 8 in Dec. The consumers did not receive any information on their continuous consumption or any reminders when the tariff was in effect. It is likely that the consumption reductions would have been even higher with more information to the consumers.

  3. Communication technologies for demand side management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Uuspaeae, P [VTT Energy, Espoo (Finland)

    1998-08-01

    The scope of this research is data communications for electric utilities, specifically for the purposes of Demand Side Management (DSM). Demand Side Management has the objective to change the customer`s end use of energy in a manner that benefits both the customer and the utility. For example, peak demand may be reduced, and the peak demand may be relocated to off peak periods. Thus additional investments in generation and network may be avoided. A number of Demand Side Management functions can be implemented if a communication system is available between the Electric Utility and the Customer. The total communication capacity that is needed, will depend on several factors, such as the functions that are chosen for DSM, and on the number and type of customers. Some functions may be handled with one-way communications, while some other functions need to have two-way communication

  4. Variability of electricity load patterns and its effect on demand response: A critical peak pricing experiment on Korean commercial and industrial customers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jang, Dongsik; Eom, Jiyong; Jae Park, Min; Jeung Rho, Jae

    2016-01-01

    To the extent that demand response represents an intentional electricity usage adjustment to price changes or incentive payments, consumers who exhibit more-variable load patterns on normal days may be capable of altering their loads more significantly in response to dynamic pricing plans. This study investigates the variation in the pre-enrollment load patterns of Korean commercial and industrial electricity customers and their impact on event-day loads during a critical peak pricing experiment in the winter of 2013. Contrary to conventional approaches to profiling electricity loads, this study proposes a new clustering technique based on variability indices that collectively represent the potential demand–response resource that these customers would supply. Our analysis reveals that variability in pre-enrollment load patterns does indeed have great predictive power for estimating their impact on demand–response loads. Customers in relatively low-variability clusters provided limited or no response, whereas customers in relatively high-variability clusters consistently presented large load impacts, accounting for most of the program-level peak reductions. This study suggests that dynamic pricing programs themselves may not offer adequate motivation for meaningful adjustments in load patterns, particularly for customers in low-variability clusters. - Highlights: • A method of clustering customers by variability indices is developed. • Customers in high-variability clusters provide substantial peak reductions. • Low-variability clusters exhibit limited reductions. • For low-variability customers, alternative policy instruments is well advised. • A model of discerning customer's demand response potential is suggested.

  5. Demand response scheme based on lottery-like rebates

    KAUST Repository

    Schwartz, Galina A.; Tembine, Hamidou; Amin, Saurabh; Sastry, S. Shankar

    2014-01-01

    In this paper, we develop a novel mechanism for reducing volatility of residential demand for electricity. We construct a reward-based (rebate) mechanism that provides consumers with incentives to shift their demand to off-peak time. In contrast to most other mechanisms proposed in the literature, the key feature of our mechanism is its modest requirements on user preferences, i.e., it does not require exact knowledge of user responsiveness to rewards for shifting their demand from the peak to the off-peak time. Specifically, our mechanism utilizes a probabilistic reward structure for users who shift their demand to the off-peak time, and is robust to incomplete information about user demand and/or risk preferences. We approach the problem from the public good perspective, and demonstrate that the mechanism can be implemented via lottery-like schemes. Our mechanism permits to reduce the distribution losses, and thus improve efficiency of electricity distribution. Finally, the mechanism can be readily incorporated into the emerging demand response schemes (e.g., the time-of-day pricing, and critical peak pricing schemes), and has security and privacy-preserving properties.

  6. Demand response scheme based on lottery-like rebates

    KAUST Repository

    Schwartz, Galina A.

    2014-08-24

    In this paper, we develop a novel mechanism for reducing volatility of residential demand for electricity. We construct a reward-based (rebate) mechanism that provides consumers with incentives to shift their demand to off-peak time. In contrast to most other mechanisms proposed in the literature, the key feature of our mechanism is its modest requirements on user preferences, i.e., it does not require exact knowledge of user responsiveness to rewards for shifting their demand from the peak to the off-peak time. Specifically, our mechanism utilizes a probabilistic reward structure for users who shift their demand to the off-peak time, and is robust to incomplete information about user demand and/or risk preferences. We approach the problem from the public good perspective, and demonstrate that the mechanism can be implemented via lottery-like schemes. Our mechanism permits to reduce the distribution losses, and thus improve efficiency of electricity distribution. Finally, the mechanism can be readily incorporated into the emerging demand response schemes (e.g., the time-of-day pricing, and critical peak pricing schemes), and has security and privacy-preserving properties.

  7. Automated Critical Peak Pricing Field Tests: Program Descriptionand Results

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Piette, Mary Ann; Watson, David; Motegi, Naoya; Kiliccote, Sila; Xu, Peng

    2006-04-06

    California utilities have been exploring the use of critical peak prices (CPP) to help reduce needle peaks in customer end-use loads. CPP is a form of price-responsive demand response (DR). Recent experience has shown that customers have limited knowledge of how to operate their facilities in order to reduce their electricity costs under CPP (Quantum 2004). While the lack of knowledge about how to develop and implement DR control strategies is a barrier to participation in DR programs like CPP, another barrier is the lack of automation of DR systems. During 2003 and 2004, the PIER Demand Response Research Center (DRRC) conducted a series of tests of fully automated electric demand response (Auto-DR) at 18 facilities. Overall, the average of the site-specific average coincident demand reductions was 8% from a variety of building types and facilities. Many electricity customers have suggested that automation will help them institutionalize their electric demand savings and improve their overall response and DR repeatability. This report focuses on and discusses the specific results of the Automated Critical Peak Pricing (Auto-CPP, a specific type of Auto-DR) tests that took place during 2005, which build on the automated demand response (Auto-DR) research conducted through PIER and the DRRC in 2003 and 2004. The long-term goal of this project is to understand the technical opportunities of automating demand response and to remove technical and market impediments to large-scale implementation of automated demand response (Auto-DR) in buildings and industry. A second goal of this research is to understand and identify best practices for DR strategies and opportunities. The specific objectives of the Automated Critical Peak Pricing test were as follows: (1) Demonstrate how an automated notification system for critical peak pricing can be used in large commercial facilities for demand response (DR). (2) Evaluate effectiveness of such a system. (3) Determine how customers

  8. Monthly Electrical Energy Overview February 2017

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2017-03-01

    This publication presents the electricity characteristics and noteworthy developments in France every month: consumption, generation, renewable energies, cross-border trades and transmission system developments, along with feedback on the highlights affecting this data. This issue presents the key figures for February 2017. The monthly balance of French exchanges once again passed back in favour of exports in February 2017, despite a fall in nuclear and hydraulic generation. Gross demand was down compared to February 2016, due to milder temperatures. Fossil fuel thermal generation totalled 6.1 TWh, up by 65% compared to February 2016. Due to fluctuating winds, February 2017 recorded both an instantaneous generation peak for the wind and solar sectors (11.3 GW), and a fall in monthly wind generation compared to February 2016. The fall in wind power generation was not uniform over the country: the Southwest experienced stormy episodes boosting generation whereas that in the North-East fell sharply. Market prices were sharply lower Europe-wide. The balance in favour of exports totalled 3.4 TWh in February 2017. 11 installations went into service in this month

  9. Measurements and simulations for peak electrical load reduction in cooling dominated climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sadineni, Suresh B.; Boehm, Robert F.

    2012-01-01

    Peak electric demand due to cooling load in the Desert Southwest region of the US has been an issue for the electrical energy suppliers. To address this issue, a consortium has been formed between the University of Nevada Las Vegas, Pulte Homes (home builder) and NV Energy (local utility) in order to reduce the peak load by more than 65%. The implemented strategies that were used to accomplish that goal consist of energy efficiency in homes, onsite electricity generation through roof integrated PV, direct load control, and battery storage at the substation level. The simulation models developed using building energy analysis software were validated against measured data. The electrical energy demand for the upgraded home during peak period (1:00–7:00 PM) decreased by approximately 37% and 9% compared to a code standard home of the same size, due to energy efficiency and PV generation, respectively. The total decrease in electrical demand due to energy efficiency and PV generation during the peak period is 46%. Additionally, a 2.2 °C increase in thermostat temperature from 23.9 °C to 26.1 °C between 4:00 PM and 7:00 PM has further decreased the average demand during the peak period by 69% of demand from a standard home. -- Highlights: ► A study to demonstrate peak load reductions of 65% at the substation. ► A new residential energy efficient community named Villa Trieste is being developed. ► The peak demand from the homes has decreased by 37% through energy efficiency. ► A 1.8 kWp system along with energy efficiency measures decreased peak by 46%.

  10. Demand side management for commercial buildings using an in line heat pump water heating methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rankin, Riaan; Rousseau, Pieter G.; Eldik, Martin van

    2004-01-01

    Most of the sanitary hot water used in South African buildings is heated by means of direct electrical resistance heaters. This is one of the major contributors to the undesirably high morning and afternoon peaks imposed on the national electricity supply grid. For this reason, water heating continues to be of concern to the electricity supplier, ESCOM. Previous studies, conducted by the Potchefstroom University for Christian Higher Education in South Africa, indicated that extensive application of the so called inline heat pump water heating methodology in commercial buildings could result in significant demand side management savings to ESKOM. Furthermore, impressive paybacks can be obtained by building owners who choose to implement the design methodology on existing or new systems. Currently, a few examples exist where the design methodology has been successfully implemented. These installations are monitored with a fully web centric monitoring system that allows 24 h access to data from each installation. Based on these preliminary results, a total peak demand reduction of 108 MW can be achieved, which represents 18% of the peak load reduction target set by ESKOM until the year 2015. This represents an avoided cost of approximately MR324 (ZAR) [Int J Energy Res 25(4) (1999) 2000]. Results based on actual data from the monitored installations shows a significant peak demand reduction for each installation. In one installation, a hotel with an occupancy of 220 people, the peak demand contribution of the hot water installation was reduced by 86%, realizing a 36% reduction in peak demand for the whole building. The savings incurred by the building owner also included significant energy consumption savings due to the superior energy efficiency of the heat pump water heater. The combined savings result in a conservatively calculated straight payback period of 12.5 months, with an internal rate of return of 98%. The actual cost of water heating is studied by

  11. Ontario demand forecast from January 2004 to December 2013

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2003-01-01

    This document examined the demand forecast for electricity on the Independent Market Operator (IMO)-controlled grid in Ontario for the period 2004-2013. It serves as an assessment tool to determine whether existing and proposed generation and transmission facilities in the province will be sufficient to meet future electricity needs. Changes in methodology have been made to allow for an hourly peak versus the previously reported 20-minute peak value. Actual data through to the end of October 2002 was used to re-estimate energy demand. Compared to other developed countries, the outlook for the Canadian economy is optimistic. In addition, the economic forecast is better than that which formed the basis of the last ten-year forecast. Energy demand in the median growth scenario is increasing at an annual rate of 1.1 per cent rather than 0.9 per cent for the forecasted period of 2003-2012. The combination of a higher growth rate and a higher starting point results in a 2010 forecast of 168 TWh. It is expected that peak demand will grow faster than in the previous forecast. Summer peak demand averaging an annual growth of 1.3 per cent is forecasted for the period 2003-2012, with winter peak demand averaging a growth of 0.8 per cent. Under normal weather conditions, the electricity system is expected to peak in the summer of 2005 due to the continued demand for cooling load. However, under an extreme weather scenario, the system is already summer peaking. The improved economic outlook and higher starting point resulted in a higher forecast for energy. The electricity system is expected to winter peak during the first years of the forecasted period. The heating load is not expected to experience rapid growth in the next few years. 15 tabs., 14 figs

  12. Operation of Dokan Reservoir under Stochastic Conditions as Regards the Inflows and the Energy Demands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rashed, G. I.

    2018-02-01

    This paper presented a way of obtaining certain operating rules on time steps for the management of a large reservoir operation with a peak hydropower plant associated to it. The rules were allowed to have the form of non-linear regression equations which link a decision variable (here the water volume in the reservoir at the end of the time step) by several parameters influencing it. This paper considered the Dokan hydroelectric development KR-Iraq, which operation data are available for. It was showing that both the monthly average inflows and the monthly power demands are random variables. A model of deterministic dynamic programming intending the minimization of the total amount of the squares differences between the demanded energy and the generated energy is run with a multitude of annual scenarios of inflows and monthly required energies. The operating rules achieved allow the efficient and safe management of the operation and it is quietly and accurately known the forecast of the inflow and of the energy demand on the next time step.

  13. Dokan Hydropower Reservoir Operation under Stochastic Conditions as Regards the Inflows and the Energy Demands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Izat Rashed, Ghamgeen

    2018-03-01

    This paper presented a way of obtaining certain operating rules on time steps for the management of a large reservoir operation with a peak hydropower plant associated to it. The rules were allowed to have the form of non-linear regression equations which link a decision variable (here the water volume in the reservoir at the end of the time step) by several parameters influencing it. This paper considered the Dokan hydroelectric development KR-Iraq, which operation data are available for. It was showing that both the monthly average inflows and the monthly power demands are random variables. A model of deterministic dynamic programming intending the minimization of the total amount of the squares differences between the demanded energy and the generated energy is run with a multitude of annual scenarios of inflows and monthly required energies. The operating rules achieved allow the efficient and safe management of the operation and it is quietly and accurately known the forecast of the inflow and of the energy demand on the next time step.

  14. Electricity demand forecasting techniques

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gnanalingam, K.

    1994-01-01

    Electricity demand forecasting plays an important role in power generation. The two areas of data that have to be forecasted in a power system are peak demand which determines the capacity (MW) of the plant required and annual energy demand (GWH). Methods used in electricity demand forecasting include time trend analysis and econometric methods. In forecasting, identification of manpower demand, identification of key planning factors, decision on planning horizon, differentiation between prediction and projection (i.e. development of different scenarios) and choosing from different forecasting techniques are important

  15. Temperature Effect on Energy Demand

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Young Duk [Korea Energy Economics Institute, Euiwang (Korea)

    1999-03-01

    We provide various estimates of temperature effect for accommodating seasonality in energy demand, particularly natural gas demand. We exploit temperature response and monthly temperature distribution to estimate the temperature effect on natural gas demand. Both local and global smoothed temperature responses are estimated from empirical relationship between hourly temperature and hourly energy consumption data during the sample period (1990 - 1996). Monthly temperature distribution estimates are obtained by kernel density estimation from temperature dispersion within a month. We integrate temperature response and monthly temperature density over all the temperatures in the sample period to estimate temperature effect on energy demand. Then, estimates of temperature effect are compared between global and local smoothing methods. (author). 15 refs., 14 figs., 2 tabs.

  16. UK Nuclear Workforce Demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roberts, John

    2017-01-01

    UK Nuclear Sites: DECOMMISSIONING - 26 Magnox Reactors, 2 Fast Reactors; OPERATIONAL - 14 AGRs, 1 PWR; 9.6 GWe Total Capacity. Nuclear Workforce Demand • Total workforce demand is expected to grow from ~88,000 in 2017 to ~101,000 in 2021 • Average “inflow” is ~7,000 FTEs per annum • 22% of the workforce is female (28% in civil, 12% in defence) • 81% generic skills, 18% nuclear skills, 1% subject matter experts • 3300 trainees total in SLCs and Defence Enterprise (16% graduate trainees) • At peak demand on Civils Construction, over 4,000 workers will be required on each nuclear new build site • Manufacturing workforce is expected to rise from around 4,000 in 2014 to 8,500 at the peak of onsite activity in 2025

  17. Province gets serious about demand management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon

    2003-01-01

    Directives from the Minister to the Ontario Energy Board to review options for demand-side management and demand reduction activities, and discussion papers describing the policy framework needed to implement demand management, are indications of renewed interest by the provincial government in demand-side management of Ontario's electric power supply. This renewed interest comes on the hills of a 5.5 per cent increase in electricity use, a 33 per cent increase in imports, and consumption records broken in 10 of the last 12 months. A 117-page study was released in April by Navigant Consulting, entitled 'Demand response blueprint for Ontario' which estimates that if the Ontario market had 250 MW of additional demand response, customers providing the demand response would have saved $20 million by reducing their demand when HOEP was greater than $120/MWh, while other customers would have saved $170 million due to lower HOEP, and would have enjoyed greater reliability as a result of the increase in reserve margins. Other than price signals to induce customers to save, the Navigant report suggest paying customers not to consume during peak periods. The report estimates that such a policy could generate a total demand response of 350 MW and a $235 million reduction in revenue to generators. The Navigan report also includes a large number of detailed analysis and recommendations. One among them is for the extensive use of interval meters for customers with loads over 200 kW. The report tends to be critical of the recent price freeze ordered by the Ontario government, claiming that the freeze could increase consumption, making prices more volatile and increasing the cost to the government even more. Successful demand response programs from California, New York and the New England states are cited as examples for Ontario to emulate

  18. Dynamic linear modeling of monthly electricity demand in Japan: Time variation of electricity conservation effect.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Honjo, Keita; Shiraki, Hiroto; Ashina, Shuichi

    2018-01-01

    After the severe nuclear disaster in Fukushima, which was triggered by the Great East Japan earthquake in March 2011, nuclear power plants in Japan were temporarily shut down for mandatory inspections. To prevent large-scale blackouts, the Japanese government requested companies and households to reduce electricity consumption in summer and winter. It is reported that the domestic electricity demand had a structural decrease because of the electricity conservation effect (ECE). However, quantitative analysis of the ECE is not sufficient, and especially time variation of the ECE remains unclear. Understanding the ECE is important because Japan's NDC (nationally determined contribution) assumes the reduction of CO2 emissions through aggressive energy conservation. In this study, we develop a time series model of monthly electricity demand in Japan and estimate time variation of the ECE. Moreover, we evaluate the impact of electricity conservation on CO2 emissions from power plants. The dynamic linear model is used to separate the ECE from the effects of other irrelevant factors (e.g. air temperature, economic production, and electricity price). Our result clearly shows that consumers' electricity conservation behavior after the earthquake was not temporary but became established as a habit. Between March 2011 and March 2016, the ECE on industrial electricity demand ranged from 3.9% to 5.4%, and the ECE on residential electricity demand ranged from 1.6% to 7.6%. The ECE on the total electricity demand was estimated at 3.2%-6.0%. We found a seasonal pattern that the residential ECE in summer is higher than that in winter. The emissions increase from the shutdown of nuclear power plants was mitigated by electricity conservation. The emissions reduction effect was estimated at 0.82 MtCO2-2.26 MtCO2 (-4.5% on average compared to the zero-ECE case). The time-varying ECE is necessary for predicting Japan's electricity demand and CO2 emissions after the earthquake.

  19. Dynamic linear modeling of monthly electricity demand in Japan: Time variation of electricity conservation effect.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Keita Honjo

    Full Text Available After the severe nuclear disaster in Fukushima, which was triggered by the Great East Japan earthquake in March 2011, nuclear power plants in Japan were temporarily shut down for mandatory inspections. To prevent large-scale blackouts, the Japanese government requested companies and households to reduce electricity consumption in summer and winter. It is reported that the domestic electricity demand had a structural decrease because of the electricity conservation effect (ECE. However, quantitative analysis of the ECE is not sufficient, and especially time variation of the ECE remains unclear. Understanding the ECE is important because Japan's NDC (nationally determined contribution assumes the reduction of CO2 emissions through aggressive energy conservation. In this study, we develop a time series model of monthly electricity demand in Japan and estimate time variation of the ECE. Moreover, we evaluate the impact of electricity conservation on CO2 emissions from power plants. The dynamic linear model is used to separate the ECE from the effects of other irrelevant factors (e.g. air temperature, economic production, and electricity price. Our result clearly shows that consumers' electricity conservation behavior after the earthquake was not temporary but became established as a habit. Between March 2011 and March 2016, the ECE on industrial electricity demand ranged from 3.9% to 5.4%, and the ECE on residential electricity demand ranged from 1.6% to 7.6%. The ECE on the total electricity demand was estimated at 3.2%-6.0%. We found a seasonal pattern that the residential ECE in summer is higher than that in winter. The emissions increase from the shutdown of nuclear power plants was mitigated by electricity conservation. The emissions reduction effect was estimated at 0.82 MtCO2-2.26 MtCO2 (-4.5% on average compared to the zero-ECE case. The time-varying ECE is necessary for predicting Japan's electricity demand and CO2 emissions after the

  20. Dynamic linear modeling of monthly electricity demand in Japan: Time variation of electricity conservation effect

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shiraki, Hiroto; Ashina, Shuichi

    2018-01-01

    After the severe nuclear disaster in Fukushima, which was triggered by the Great East Japan earthquake in March 2011, nuclear power plants in Japan were temporarily shut down for mandatory inspections. To prevent large-scale blackouts, the Japanese government requested companies and households to reduce electricity consumption in summer and winter. It is reported that the domestic electricity demand had a structural decrease because of the electricity conservation effect (ECE). However, quantitative analysis of the ECE is not sufficient, and especially time variation of the ECE remains unclear. Understanding the ECE is important because Japan’s NDC (nationally determined contribution) assumes the reduction of CO2 emissions through aggressive energy conservation. In this study, we develop a time series model of monthly electricity demand in Japan and estimate time variation of the ECE. Moreover, we evaluate the impact of electricity conservation on CO2 emissions from power plants. The dynamic linear model is used to separate the ECE from the effects of other irrelevant factors (e.g. air temperature, economic production, and electricity price). Our result clearly shows that consumers’ electricity conservation behavior after the earthquake was not temporary but became established as a habit. Between March 2011 and March 2016, the ECE on industrial electricity demand ranged from 3.9% to 5.4%, and the ECE on residential electricity demand ranged from 1.6% to 7.6%. The ECE on the total electricity demand was estimated at 3.2%–6.0%. We found a seasonal pattern that the residential ECE in summer is higher than that in winter. The emissions increase from the shutdown of nuclear power plants was mitigated by electricity conservation. The emissions reduction effect was estimated at 0.82 MtCO2–2.26 MtCO2 (−4.5% on average compared to the zero-ECE case). The time-varying ECE is necessary for predicting Japan’s electricity demand and CO2 emissions after the

  1. Water use demand in the Crans-Montana-Sierre region (Switzerland)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonriposi, M.; Reynard, E.

    2012-04-01

    Crans-Montana-Sierre is an Alpine touristic region located in the driest area of Switzerland (Rhone River Valley, Canton of Valais), with both winter (ski) and summer (e.g. golf) tourist activities. Climate change as well as societal and economic development will in future significantly modify the supply and consumption of water and, consequently, may fuel conflicts of interest. Within the framework of the MontanAqua project (www.montanaqua.ch), we are researching more sustainable water management options based on the co-ordination and adaptation of water demand to water availability under changing biophysical and socioeconomic conditions. This work intends to quantify current water uses in the area and consider future scenarios (around 2050). We have focused upon the temporal and spatial characteristics of resource demand, in order to estimate the spatial footprint of water use (drinking water, hydropower production, irrigation and artificial snowmaking), in terms of system, infrastructure, and organisation of supply. We have then quantified these as precisely as possible (at the monthly temporal scale and at the municipality spatial scale). When the quantity of water was not measurable for practical reasons or for lack of data, as for the case for irrigation or snowmaking, an alternative approach was applied. Instead of quantifying how much water was used, the stress was put on the water needs for irrigating agricultural land or on the optimal meteorological conditions necessary to produce artificial snow. A huge summer peak and a smaller winter peak characterize the current regional water consumption estimation. The summer peak is mainly caused by irrigation and secondly by drinking water demand. The winter peak is essentially due to drinking water and snowmaking. Other consumption peaks exist at the municipality scale but they cannot be observed at the regional scale. The results show a major variation in water demand between the 11 concerned municipalities and

  2. Open Automated Demand Response for Small Commerical Buildings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dudley, June Han; Piette, Mary Ann; Koch, Ed; Hennage, Dan

    2009-05-01

    This report characterizes small commercial buildings by market segments, systems and end-uses; develops a framework for identifying demand response (DR) enabling technologies and communication means; and reports on the design and development of a low-cost OpenADR enabling technology that delivers demand reductions as a percentage of the total predicted building peak electric demand. The results show that small offices, restaurants and retail buildings are the major contributors making up over one third of the small commercial peak demand. The majority of the small commercial buildings in California are located in southern inland areas and the central valley. Single-zone packaged units with manual and programmable thermostat controls make up the majority of heating ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) systems for small commercial buildings with less than 200 kW peak electric demand. Fluorescent tubes with magnetic ballast and manual controls dominate this customer group's lighting systems. There are various ways, each with its pros and cons for a particular application, to communicate with these systems and three methods to enable automated DR in small commercial buildings using the Open Automated Demand Response (or OpenADR) communications infrastructure. Development of DR strategies must consider building characteristics, such as weather sensitivity and load variability, as well as system design (i.e. under-sizing, under-lighting, over-sizing, etc). Finally, field tests show that requesting demand reductions as a percentage of the total building predicted peak electric demand is feasible using the OpenADR infrastructure.

  3. An exploratory analysis of California residential customer response to critical peak pricing of electricity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Herter, Karen; McAuliffe, Patrick; Rosenfeld, Arthur

    2007-01-01

    This paper summarizes the results from an exploratory analysis of residential customer response to a critical peak pricing (CPP) experiment in California, in which 15 times per year participating customers received high price signals dispatched by a local electricity distribution company. The high prices were about three times the on-peak price for the otherwise applicable time-of-use rate. Using hourly load data collected during the 15-month experiment, we find statistically significant load reduction for participants both with and without automated end-use control technologies. During 5-h critical peak periods, participants without control technology used up to 13% less energy than they did during normal peak periods. Participants equipped with programmable communicating thermostats used 25% and 41% less for 5 and 2h critical events, respectively. Thus, this paper offers convincing evidence that the residential sector can provide substantial contributions to retail demand response, which is considered a potential tool for mitigating market power, stabilizing wholesale market prices, managing system reliability, and maintaining system resource adequacy. (author)

  4. A Novel Technique to Enhance Demand Responsiveness

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Farashbashi-Astaneh, Seyed-Mostafa; Bhattarai, Bishnu Prasad; Bak-Jensen, Birgitte

    2015-01-01

    In this study, a new pricing approach is proposed to increase demand responsiveness. The proposed approach considers two well-known demand side management techniques, namely peak shaving and valley filling. This is done by incentivising consumers by magnifying price difference between peak and off......-peak hours. The usefulness of the suggested method is then investigated by its combination with an electric vehicle optimal scheduling methodology which captures both economic valuation and grid technical constraints. This case is chosen in this study to address network congestion issues, namely under...

  5. Price responsive load programs: U.S. experience in creating markets for peak demand reductions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goldberg, Miriam L.; Michelman, Thomas; Rosenberg, Mitchell

    2003-01-01

    Demand response programs use a variety of pricing mechanisms to induce end-use customers to reduce demand at specified periods. U.S. distribution utilities, regional market operators, and their regulators have implemented demand response programs with the objectives of improving electric system reliability, avoiding price spikes, and relieving local transmission congestion. This paper reviews the design and performance of market-linked demand response programs operated in 2001 and 2002, focusing on the relationship between program design and customer participation and the development of accurate and feasible methods to measure demand response at the facility level

  6. Survey of Models on Demand, Customer Base-Line and Demand Response and Their Relationships in the Power Market

    OpenAIRE

    Heshmati, Almas

    2012-01-01

    The increasing use of demand-side management as a tool to reliably meet electricity demand at peak time has stimulated interest among researchers, consumers and producer organizations, managers, regulators and policymakers, This research reviews the growing literature on models used to study demand, consumer baseline (CBL) and demand response in the electricity market. After characterizing the general demand models, it reviews consumer baseline based on which further study the demand response...

  7. Higher balance task demands are associated with an increase in individual alpha peak frequency

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thorben eHülsdünker

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Balance control is fundamental for most daily motor activities, and its impairment is associated with an increased risk of falling. Growing evidence suggests the human cortex is essentially contributing to the control of standing balance. However, the exact mechanisms remain unclear and need further investigation. In a previous study we introduced a new protocol to identify electrocortical activity associated with performance of different continuous balance tasks with the eyes opened. The aim of this study was to extend our previous results by investigating the individual alpha peak frequency (iAPF, a neurophysiological marker of thalamo-cortical information transmission, which remained unconsidered so far in balance research. Thirty-seven subjects completed nine balance tasks varying in surface stability and base of support. Electroencephalography (EEG was recorded from 32 scalp locations throughout balancing with the eyes closed to ensure reliable identification of the iAPF. Balance performance was quantified as the sum of anterior-posterior and medio-lateral movements of the supporting platform. The iAPF, as well as power in the theta, lower alpha and upper alpha frequency bands were determined for each balance task after applying an ICA-based artifact rejection procedure. Higher demands on balance control were associated with a global increase in iAPF and a decrease in lower alpha power. These results may indicate increased thalamo-cortical information transfer and general cortical activation, respectively. In addition, a significant increase in upper alpha activity was observed in the fronto-central region whereas it decreased in the centro-parietal region. Furthermore, midline theta increased with higher task demands probably indicating activation of error detection/processing mechanisms. IAPF as well as theta and alpha power were correlated with platform movements. The results provide new insights into spectral and spatial characteristics

  8. Non-residential water demand model validated with extensive measurements and surveys

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pieterse-Quirijns, I.; Blokker, E.J.M.; van der Blom, E.C.; Vreeburg, J.H.G.

    2013-01-01

    Existing Dutch guidelines for the design of the drinking water and hot water system of nonresidential buildings are based on outdated assumptions on peak water demand or on unfounded assumptions on hot water demand. They generally overestimate peak demand values required for the design of an

  9. The duration of pubertal growth peak among three skeletal classes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Waqar Jeelani

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Introduction: Pubertal growth peak is closely associated with a rapid increase in mandibular length and offers a wide range of therapeutic modifiability. Objective: The aim of the present study was to determine and compare the mean ages of onset and duration of pubertal growth peak among three skeletal classes. Methods: A retrospective cross-sectional study was conducted using lateral cephalograms of 230 subjects with growth potential (110 males, 120 females. Subjects were categorized into three classes (Class I = 81, Class II = 82, Class III = 67, according to the sagittal relationship established between the maxilla and the mandible. The cervical vertebral maturation stage was recorded by means of Baccetti's method. The mean ages at CS3 and CS4 and the CS3-CS4 age interval were compared between boys and girls and among three skeletal classes. Results: Pubertal growth peak occurred on average four months earlier in girls than boys (p = 0.050. The average duration of pubertal growth peak was 11 months in Class I, seven months in Class II and 17 months in Class III subjects. Interclass differences were highly significant (Cohen's d > 0.08. However, no significant difference was found in the timing of pubertal growth peak onset among three skeletal classes (p = 0.126 in boys, p = 0.262 in girls. Conclusions: Girls enter pubertal growth peak on average four months earlier than boys. Moreover, the duration of pubertal growth peak is on average four months shorter in Class II and six months longer in Class III subjects as compared to Class I subjects.

  10. Cut Electric Bills by Controlling Demand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grumman, David L.

    1974-01-01

    Electric bills can be reduced by lowering electric consumption and by controlling demand -- the amount of electricity used at a certain point in time. Gives tips to help reduce electric demand at peak power periods. (Author/DN)

  11. Financial incentive approaches for reducing peak electricity demand, experience from pilot trials with a UK energy provider

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bradley, Peter; Coke, Alexia; Leach, Matthew

    2016-01-01

    Whilst tariff-based approaches to load-shifting are common in the residential sector, incentive-based approaches are rare. This is so, even though providing customers incentives to shape their power consumption patterns has substantial potential. This paper presents findings from an exploratory UK pilot study that trials financial payments and detailed energy feedback to incentivise load-shifting of residential electricity consumption. An intervention study was implemented measuring actual energy use by individual households as well as conducting surveys and interviews. From the trials it was found that the approaches resulted in reductions in peak time energy use. Evidence from the study found that the incentives-based approaches were able to overcome some of the barriers to response experienced in Time-of-Use studies, though less good on others. Interestingly, the height of the barriers varied by the electricity-using practice and the incentivising approach applied. The height of the barriers also varied by participant. The study concludes by identifying that broad participation in demand response is likely to require a suite of incentivising approaches that appeal to different people, a key policy finding of interest to international agencies, government, public and private sector entities. - Highlights: • Novel study of financial incentive approaches for shifting residential energy. • First academic paper comprehensively identifying barriers to time of use tariffs. • First study reporting barriers to financial incentive approaches for demand response. • Incentive study design can be applied by government and energy companies.

  12. Customers` response to residential peak-activated pricing. Evidence from a Japanese experiment; Peak taio ryokinka ni okeru kateiyo juyoka no fuka chosei kodo no bunseki. Kansetsu fuka seigyo jikken data wo mochiita kakaku koka no sokutei

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Asano, H. [Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry, Tokyo (Japan)

    1997-10-01

    Demand side management through a pricing mechanism, that is the indirect load control was experimented to analyze the pricing effect. When power consumption in indirect load control groups is compared between peak time band in weekdays in summer and off-the-peak time band, the power is less consumed when price gap is set than in a uniform charge time. When more number of persons is in home in daytime, room cooling is used in daytime including the peak band to adjust the demand. The substitution elasticity in price between demands in the peak time band and the off-the-peak time band is from about 0.06 to 0.07, which cannot be ignored. If the peak price is increased by four times, the demand in the peak band can be reduced by about 0.15 kW (when average power demand per household is assumed 0.75 kW). For room cooling devices, the first device is often installed in a living room and the second and further units in individual rooms such as bed rooms. The more the number of device, the higher the possibility that the use time band is outside the peak time band. This indirect load control experiment is a field test related to the peak-activated pricing for small power users, by which the users` behavior against the pricing effect was identified quantitatively. 5 refs., 1 fig., 8 tabs.

  13. Estimating demand for alternatives to cigarettes with online purchase tasks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Connor, Richard J; June, Kristie M; Bansal-Travers, Maansi; Rousu, Matthew C; Thrasher, James F; Hyland, Andrew; Cummings, K Michael

    2014-01-01

    To explore how advertising affects demand for cigarettes and potential substitutes, including snus, dissolvable tobacco, and medicinal nicotine. A Web-based experiment randomized 1062 smokers to see advertisements for alternative nicotine products or soft drinks, then complete a series of purchase tasks, which were used to estimate demand elasticity, peak consumption, and cross-price elasticity (CPE) for tobacco products. Lower demand elasticity and greater peak consumption were seen for cigarettes compared to all alternative products (p demand. These findings suggest significantly lower demand for alternative nicotine sources among smokers than previously revealed.

  14. 18-month outlook : an assessment of the reliability of the Ontario Electricity System

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2005-01-01

    This paper provides an 18 month forecast of the Ontario electricity system, as well as an outline of activities and recent developments relating to the issue of reliability. An additional aim of the paper was to identify potentially adverse conditions that may require adjustment or coordination of maintenance plans for generation and transmission equipment. Requests for proposals (RFPs) for renewable generation within the specified time-frame were also discussed, as well as the return to service of Ontario Power Generation's Pickering Unit 1. Reduced reserve levels for the summer of 2005 were anticipated, and details of forecasted peak demand, generator maintenance, new generation and price-responsive demand adjustments and forced outage rates were presented. It was suggested that adequate market mechanisms were in place to manage reserve levels. Developments concerning the new Parkway Transformer station were reviewed. A resource outlook was provided. Available resources were expected to exceed planning requirements with the exception of 6 weeks in the summer of 2005. A projected capacity increase was also anticipated, due to the return of Pickering 1 and an additional 515 MW in the fall of 2005. Price-responsive demands were forecasted to exceed 650 MW due to increases in dispatchable load. It was suggested that in order to ensure power demand during peak periods, imports may be required under extreme weather conditions, combined with the possible deferral or cancellation of generation maintenance. Transmission impacts due to shutdowns were discussed. Voltage system requirements were reviewed, along with details of the installation of additional shunt capacitors and transformer controls. The electricity market was reviewed in the context of current overall economic conditions. Data forecasting normal peak demand was presented for the entire outlook period. 19 tabs., 10 figs

  15. Analytical optimization of demand management strategies across all urban water use sectors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friedman, Kenneth; Heaney, James P.; Morales, Miguel; Palenchar, John

    2014-07-01

    An effective urban water demand management program can greatly influence both peak and average demand and therefore long-term water supply and infrastructure planning. Although a theoretical framework for evaluating residential indoor demand management has been well established, little has been done to evaluate other water use sectors such as residential irrigation in a compatible manner for integrating these results into an overall solution. This paper presents a systematic procedure to evaluate the optimal blend of single family residential irrigation demand management strategies to achieve a specified goal based on performance functions derived from parcel level tax assessor's data linked to customer level monthly water billing data. This framework is then generalized to apply to any urban water sector, as exponential functions can be fit to all resulting cumulative water savings functions. Two alternative formulations are presented: maximize net benefits, or minimize total costs subject to satisfying a target water savings. Explicit analytical solutions are presented for both formulations based on appropriate exponential best fits of performance functions. A direct result of this solution is the dual variable which represents the marginal cost of water saved at a specified target water savings goal. A case study of 16,303 single family irrigators in Gainesville Regional Utilities utilizing high quality tax assessor and monthly billing data along with parcel level GIS data provide an illustrative example of these techniques. Spatial clustering of targeted homes can be easily performed in GIS to identify priority demand management areas.

  16. Short- and long-run time-of-use price elasticities in Swiss residential electricity demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Filippini, Massimo

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents an empirical analysis on the residential demand for electricity by time-of-day. This analysis has been performed using aggregate data at the city level for 22 Swiss cities for the period 2000-2006. For this purpose, we estimated two log-log demand equations for peak and off-peak electricity consumption using static and dynamic partial adjustment approaches. These demand functions were estimated using several econometric approaches for panel data, for example LSDV and RE for static models, and LSDV and corrected LSDV estimators for dynamic models. The attempt of this empirical analysis has been to highlight some of the characteristics of the Swiss residential electricity demand. The estimated short-run own price elasticities are lower than 1, whereas in the long-run these values are higher than 1. The estimated short-run and long-run cross-price elasticities are positive. This result shows that peak and off-peak electricity are substitutes. In this context, time differentiated prices should provide an economic incentive to customers so that they can modify consumption patterns by reducing peak demand and shifting electricity consumption from peak to off-peak periods. - Highlights: → Empirical analysis on the residential demand for electricity by time-of-day. → Estimators for dynamic panel data. → Peak and off-peak residential electricity are substitutes.

  17. Coordination of Energy Efficiency and Demand Response

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Goldman, Charles; Reid, Michael; Levy, Roger; Silverstein, Alison

    2010-01-29

    This paper reviews the relationship between energy efficiency and demand response and discusses approaches and barriers to coordinating energy efficiency and demand response. The paper is intended to support the 10 implementation goals of the National Action Plan for Energy Efficiency's Vision to achieve all cost-effective energy efficiency by 2025. Improving energy efficiency in our homes, businesses, schools, governments, and industries - which consume more than 70 percent of the nation's natural gas and electricity - is one of the most constructive, cost-effective ways to address the challenges of high energy prices, energy security and independence, air pollution, and global climate change. While energy efficiency is an increasingly prominent component of efforts to supply affordable, reliable, secure, and clean electric power, demand response is becoming a valuable tool in utility and regional resource plans. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) estimated the contribution from existing U.S. demand response resources at about 41,000 megawatts (MW), about 5.8 percent of 2008 summer peak demand (FERC, 2008). Moreover, FERC recently estimated nationwide achievable demand response potential at 138,000 MW (14 percent of peak demand) by 2019 (FERC, 2009).2 A recent Electric Power Research Institute study estimates that 'the combination of demand response and energy efficiency programs has the potential to reduce non-coincident summer peak demand by 157 GW' by 2030, or 14-20 percent below projected levels (EPRI, 2009a). This paper supports the Action Plan's effort to coordinate energy efficiency and demand response programs to maximize value to customers. For information on the full suite of policy and programmatic options for removing barriers to energy efficiency, see the Vision for 2025 and the various other Action Plan papers and guides available at www.epa.gov/eeactionplan.

  18. Oil demand asymmetry in the OECD

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shealy, M.T.

    1990-01-01

    Oil demand asymmetry exists, is significant, and can be captured with a simple demand equation using a Pmax term. The unstable parameters of the original symmetric equations suggest misspecification. Addition of a Pmax term to represent asymmetry yields stable parameters from 1982 through 1989 and so suggests proper specification. Asymmetry is significant because the short-run (and long-run) price elasticity is less than half as large when oil price falls as when price rises beyond the past peak. The lower elasticity applies both to price decreases and also to price increases for which price remains below the past peak. As long as the real oil price remains well below the 1981 peak, asymmetry implies that OECD oil demand should be less sensitive to oil price variations than in 1981. More specifically, the results shown suggest that today's oil demand elasticity should be less than half as large as the elasticity for a price increase in 1981. Forecasts from the asymmetric equations are significantly higher than the DOE base-case forecast. DOE's lower forecast is due to greater price asymmetry through 1995 and to higher long-run price elasticity beyond 1995. One reason for the higher long-run price elasticity might be greater assumed improvements in energy-efficiency than implied by the historical data

  19. Demand Side Management for the European Supergrid: Occupancy variances of European single-person households

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Torriti, Jacopo

    2012-01-01

    The prospect of a European Supergrid calls for research on aggregate electricity peak demand and Europe-wide Demand Side Management. No attempt has been made as yet to represent a time-related demand curve of residential electricity consumption at the European level. This article assesses how active occupancy levels of single-person households vary in single-person household in 15 European countries. It makes use of occupancy time-series data from the Harmonised European Time Use Survey database to build European occupancy curves; identify peak occupancy periods; construct time-related electricity demand curves for TV and video watching activities and assess occupancy variances of single-person households. - Highlights: ► Morning peak occupancies of European single households tale place between 7h30 and 7h40. ► Evening peaks take place between 20h10 and 20h20. ► TV and video activities during evening peaks make up about 3.1 GWh of European peak electricity load. ► Baseline and peak occupancy variances vary across countries. ► Baseline and peak occupancy variances can be used as input for Demand Side Management choices.

  20. Analysis of electric vehicle driver recharging demand profiles and subsequent impacts on the carbon content of electric vehicle trips

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Robinson, A.P.; Blythe, P.T.; Bell, M.C.; Hübner, Y.; Hill, G.A.

    2013-01-01

    This paper quantifies the recharging behaviour of a sample of electric vehicle (EV) drivers and evaluates the impact of current policy in the north east of England on EV driver recharging demand profiles. An analysis of 31,765 EV trips and 7704 EV recharging events, constituting 23,805 h of recharging, were recorded from in-vehicle loggers as part of the Switch EV trials is presented. Altogether 12 private users, 21 organisation individuals and 32 organisation pool vehicles were tracked over two successive six month trial periods. It was found that recharging profiles varied between the different user types and locations. Private users peak demand was in the evening at home recharging points. Organisation individual vehicles were recharged primarily upon arrival at work. Organisation pool users recharged at work and public recharging points throughout the working day. It is recommended that pay-as-you-go recharging be implemented at all public recharging locations, and smart meters be used to delay recharging at home and work locations until after 23:00 h to reduce peak demand on local power grids and reduce carbon emissions associated with EV recharging. - Highlights: • Study of EV driver recharging habits in the north east of England. • 7704 electric vehicle recharging events, comprising 23,805 h were collected. • There was minimal recharging during off- peak hours. • Free parking and electricity at point of use encouraged daytime recharging. • Need for financial incentives and smart solutions to better manage recharging demand peaks

  1. Evidence is growing on demand side of an oil peak

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2009-07-15

    After years of continued growth, the number of miles driven by Americans started falling in December 2007. Not only are the number of miles driven falling, but as cars become more fuel efficient, they go further on fewer gallons - further reducing demand for gasoline. This trend is expected to accelerate. Drivers include, along with higher-efficiency cars, mass transit, reversal in urban sprawl, biofuels, and plug-in hybrid vehicles.

  2. A novel microgrid demand-side management system for manufacturing facilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harper, Terance J.

    Thirty-one percent of annual energy consumption in the United States occurs within the industrial sector, where manufacturing processes account for the largest amount of energy consumption and carbon emissions. For this reason, energy efficiency in manufacturing facilities is increasingly important for reducing operating costs and improving profits. Using microgrids to generate local sustainable power should reduce energy consumption from the main utility grid along with energy costs and carbon emissions. Also, microgrids have the potential to serve as reliable energy generators in international locations where the utility grid is often unstable. For this research, a manufacturing process that had approximately 20 kW of peak demand was matched with a solar photovoltaic array that had a peak output of approximately 3 KW. An innovative Demand-Side Management (DSM) strategy was developed to manage the process loads as part of this smart microgrid system. The DSM algorithm managed the intermittent nature of the microgrid and the instantaneous demand of the manufacturing process. The control algorithm required three input signals; one from the microgrid indicating the availability of renewable energy, another from the manufacturing process indicating energy use as a percent of peak production, and historical data for renewable sources and facility demand. Based on these inputs the algorithm had three modes of operation: normal (business as usual), curtailment (shutting off non-critical loads), and energy storage. The results show that a real-time management of a manufacturing process with a microgrid will reduce electrical consumption and peak demand. The renewable energy system for this research was rated to provide up to 13% of the total manufacturing capacity. With actively managing the process loads with the DSM program alone, electrical consumption from the utility grid was reduced by 17% on average. An additional 24% reduction was accomplished when the microgrid

  3. National energy peak leveling program (NEPLP). Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    1977-12-01

    This three-volume report is responsive to the requirements of Contract E (04-3)-1152 to provide a detailed methodology, to include management, technology, and socio-economic aspects, of a voluntary community program of computer-assisted peak load leveling and energy conservation in commercial community facilities. The demonstration project established proof-of-concept in reducing the kW-demand peak by the unofficial goal of 10%, with concurrent kWh savings. This section of the three volume report is a final report appendix with information on the National Energy Peak Leveling Program (NEPLP).

  4. What is the Impact of Utility Demand Charges on a DCFC host

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Francfort, James Edward

    2015-01-01

    The PEV Electric Vehicle Supply Equipment (EVSE) delivered by The EV Project included both AC Level 2 and DCFC units. Over 100 of these dual-port Blink DC fast chargers were deployed by The EV Project. These DCFCs were installed in workplaces and in publicly accessible locations near traffic hubs, retail centers, parking lots, restaurants, and similar locations. The Blink DCFC is capable of charging at power up to 60 kW. Its dual-port design sequences the charge from one port to the other, delivering power to only one of two vehicles connected at a time. The actual power delivered through a port is determined by the PEV's on-board battery management system (BMS). Both the power and the total energy used to recharge a PEV can represent a significant cost for the charging site host. Many electric utilities impose fees for power demand as part of their commercial rate structure. The demand charge incurred by a customer is related to the peak power used during a monthly billing cycle. This is in contrast to the cumulative total energy usage that is the more familiar utility charge seen for most residential services. A demand charge is typically assessed for the highest average power over any 15 minute interval during the monthly billing cycle. One objective of The EV Project was to identify and elucidate the motivations and barriers to potential DCFC site hosts. The application of electric utility demand charges is one such potential barrier. This subject was introduced in the paper: DC Fast Charge - Demand Charge Reduction1. It discussed demand charge impact in general terms in order to focus on potential mitigation actions. This paper identifies specific cases in order to quantify the impact of demand charges on EV Project DCFC hosts.

  5. What is the Impact of Utility Demand Charges on a DCFC host

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Francfort, James Edward [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2015-06-01

    The PEV Electric Vehicle Supply Equipment (EVSE) delivered by The EV Project included both AC Level 2 and DCFC units. Over 100 of these dual-port Blink DC fast chargers were deployed by The EV Project. These DCFCs were installed in workplaces and in publicly accessible locations near traffic hubs, retail centers, parking lots, restaurants, and similar locations. The Blink DCFC is capable of charging at power up to 60 kW. Its dual-port design sequences the charge from one port to the other, delivering power to only one of two vehicles connected at a time. The actual power delivered through a port is determined by the PEV’s on-board battery management system (BMS). Both the power and the total energy used to recharge a PEV can represent a significant cost for the charging site host. Many electric utilities impose fees for power demand as part of their commercial rate structure. The demand charge incurred by a customer is related to the peak power used during a monthly billing cycle. This is in contrast to the cumulative total energy usage that is the more familiar utility charge seen for most residential services. A demand charge is typically assessed for the highest average power over any 15 minute interval during the monthly billing cycle. One objective of The EV Project was to identify and elucidate the motivations and barriers to potential DCFC site hosts. The application of electric utility demand charges is one such potential barrier. This subject was introduced in the paper: DC Fast Charge - Demand Charge Reduction1. It discussed demand charge impact in general terms in order to focus on potential mitigation actions. This paper identifies specific cases in order to quantify the impact of demand charges on EV Project DCFC hosts.

  6. Integrated Platform for Automated Sustainable Demand Response in Smart Grids

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zois, Vassilis [Univ. of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA (United States). Dept. of Computer Science; Frincu, Marc [Univ. of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA (United States). Dept. of Electrical Engineering; Prasanna, Viktor K. [Univ. of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA (United States). Dept. of Electrical Engineering

    2014-10-08

    Demand Response(DR) is a common practice used by utility providers to regulate energy demand. It is used at periods of high demand to minimize the peak to average consumption ratio. Several methods have been Demand Response(DR) is a common praon using information about the baseline consumption and the consumption during DR. Our goal is to provide a sustainable reduction to ensure the elimination of peaks in demand. The proposed system includes an adaptation mechanism for when the provided solution does not meet the DR requirements. We conducted a series of experiments using consumption data from a real life micro grid to evaluate the efficiency as well as the robustness of our solution.

  7. Peak loads and network investments in sustainable energy transitions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Blokhuis, Erik, E-mail: e.g.j.blokhuis@tue.nl [Eindhoven University of Technology, Department of Architecture, Building and Planning, Vertigo 8.11, P.O. Box 513, 5600MB Eindhoven (Netherlands); Brouwers, Bart [Eindhoven University of Technology, Department of Architecture, Building and Planning, Vertigo 8.11, P.O. Box 513, 5600MB Eindhoven (Netherlands); Putten, Eric van der [Endinet, Gas and Electricity Network Operations, P.O. Box 2005, 5600CA Eindhoven (Netherlands); Schaefer, Wim [Eindhoven University of Technology, Department of Architecture, Building and Planning, Vertigo 8.11, P.O. Box 513, 5600MB Eindhoven (Netherlands)

    2011-10-15

    Current energy distribution networks are often not equipped for facilitating expected sustainable transitions. Major concerns for future electricity networks are the possibility of peak load increases and the expected growth of decentralized energy generation. In this article, we focus on peak load increases; the effects of possible future developments on peak loads are studied, together with the consequences for the network. The city of Eindhoven (the Netherlands) is used as reference city, for which a scenario is developed in which the assumed future developments adversely influence the maximum peak loads on the network. In this scenario, the total electricity peak load in Eindhoven is expected to increase from 198 MVA in 2009 to 591-633 MVA in 2040. The necessary investments for facilitating the expected increased peak loads are estimated at 305-375 million Euros. Based upon these projections, it is advocated that - contrary to current Dutch policy - choices regarding sustainable transitions should be made from the viewpoint of integral energy systems, evaluating economic implications of changes to generation, grid development, and consumption. Recently applied and finished policies on energy demand reduction showed to be effective; however, additional and connecting policies on energy generation and distribution should be considered on short term. - Highlights: > Sustainable energy transitions can result in major electricity peak load increases. > Introduction of heat pumps and electrical vehicles requires network expansion. > Under worst case assumptions, peak loads in Eindhoven increase with 200% until 2040. > The necessary investment for facilitating this 2040 peak demand is Euro 305-375 million. > Future policy choices should be made from the viewpoint of the integral energy system.

  8. Peak loads and network investments in sustainable energy transitions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blokhuis, Erik; Brouwers, Bart; Putten, Eric van der; Schaefer, Wim

    2011-01-01

    Current energy distribution networks are often not equipped for facilitating expected sustainable transitions. Major concerns for future electricity networks are the possibility of peak load increases and the expected growth of decentralized energy generation. In this article, we focus on peak load increases; the effects of possible future developments on peak loads are studied, together with the consequences for the network. The city of Eindhoven (the Netherlands) is used as reference city, for which a scenario is developed in which the assumed future developments adversely influence the maximum peak loads on the network. In this scenario, the total electricity peak load in Eindhoven is expected to increase from 198 MVA in 2009 to 591-633 MVA in 2040. The necessary investments for facilitating the expected increased peak loads are estimated at 305-375 million Euros. Based upon these projections, it is advocated that - contrary to current Dutch policy - choices regarding sustainable transitions should be made from the viewpoint of integral energy systems, evaluating economic implications of changes to generation, grid development, and consumption. Recently applied and finished policies on energy demand reduction showed to be effective; however, additional and connecting policies on energy generation and distribution should be considered on short term. - Highlights: → Sustainable energy transitions can result in major electricity peak load increases. → Introduction of heat pumps and electrical vehicles requires network expansion. → Under worst case assumptions, peak loads in Eindhoven increase with 200% until 2040. → The necessary investment for facilitating this 2040 peak demand is Euro 305-375 million. → Future policy choices should be made from the viewpoint of the integral energy system.

  9. Peak Running Intensity of International Rugby: Implications for Training Prescription.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delaney, Jace A; Thornton, Heidi R; Pryor, John F; Stewart, Andrew M; Dascombe, Ben J; Duthie, Grant M

    2017-09-01

    To quantify the duration and position-specific peak running intensities of international rugby union for the prescription and monitoring of specific training methodologies. Global positioning systems (GPS) were used to assess the activity profile of 67 elite-level rugby union players from 2 nations across 33 international matches. A moving-average approach was used to identify the peak relative distance (m/min), average acceleration/deceleration (AveAcc; m/s 2 ), and average metabolic power (P met ) for a range of durations (1-10 min). Differences between positions and durations were described using a magnitude-based network. Peak running intensity increased as the length of the moving average decreased. There were likely small to moderate increases in relative distance and AveAcc for outside backs, halfbacks, and loose forwards compared with the tight 5 group across all moving-average durations (effect size [ES] = 0.27-1.00). P met demands were at least likely greater for outside backs and halfbacks than for the tight 5 (ES = 0.86-0.99). Halfbacks demonstrated the greatest relative distance and P met outputs but were similar to outside backs and loose forwards in AveAcc demands. The current study has presented a framework to describe the peak running intensities achieved during international rugby competition by position, which are considerably higher than previously reported whole-period averages. These data provide further knowledge of the peak activity profiles of international rugby competition, and this information can be used to assist coaches and practitioners in adequately preparing athletes for the most demanding periods of play.

  10. The effect of utility time-varying pricing and load control strategies on residential summer peak electricity use. A review

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Newsham, Guy R.; Bowker, Brent G.

    2010-01-01

    Peak demand for electricity in North America is expected to grow, challenging electrical utilities to supply this demand in a cost-effective, reliable manner. Therefore, there is growing interest in strategies to reduce peak demand by eliminating electricity use, or shifting it to non-peak times. This strategy is commonly called 'demand response'. In households, common strategies are time-varying pricing, which charge more for energy use on peak, or direct load control, which allows utilities to curtail certain loads during high demand periods. We reviewed recent North American studies of these strategies. The data suggest that the most effective strategy is a critical peak price (CPP) program with enabling technology to automatically curtail loads on event days. There is little evidence that this causes substantial hardship for occupants, particularly if they have input into which loads are controlled and how, and have an override option. In such cases, a peak load reduction of at least 30% is a reasonable expectation. It might be possible to attain such load reductions without enabling technology by focusing on household types more likely to respond, and providing them with excellent support. A simple time-of-use (TOU) program can only expect to realise on-peak reductions of 5%. (author)

  11. Two-Stage Electricity Demand Modeling Using Machine Learning Algorithms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krzysztof Gajowniczek

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Forecasting of electricity demand has become one of the most important areas of research in the electric power industry, as it is a critical component of cost-efficient power system management and planning. In this context, accurate and robust load forecasting is supposed to play a key role in reducing generation costs, and deals with the reliability of the power system. However, due to demand peaks in the power system, forecasts are inaccurate and prone to high numbers of errors. In this paper, our contributions comprise a proposed data-mining scheme for demand modeling through peak detection, as well as the use of this information to feed the forecasting system. For this purpose, we have taken a different approach from that of time series forecasting, representing it as a two-stage pattern recognition problem. We have developed a peak classification model followed by a forecasting model to estimate an aggregated demand volume. We have utilized a set of machine learning algorithms to benefit from both accurate detection of the peaks and precise forecasts, as applied to the Polish power system. The key finding is that the algorithms can detect 96.3% of electricity peaks (load value equal to or above the 99th percentile of the load distribution and deliver accurate forecasts, with mean absolute percentage error (MAPE of 3.10% and resistant mean absolute percentage error (r-MAPE of 2.70% for the 24 h forecasting horizon.

  12. Peaking of world oil production: Impacts, mitigation, & risk management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hirsch, R.L. (SAIC); Bezdek, Roger (MISI); Wendling, Robert (MISI)

    2005-02-01

    The peaking of world oil production presents the U.S. and the world with an unprecedented risk management problem. As peaking is approached, liquid fuel prices and price volatility will increase dramatically, and, without timely mitigation, the economic, social, and political costs will be unprecedented. Viable mitigation options exist on both the supply and demand sides, but to have substantial impact, they must be initiated more than a decade in advance of peaking.... The purpose of this analysis was to identify the critical issues surrounding the occurrence and mitigation of world oil production peaking. We simplified many of the complexities in an effort to provide a transparent analysis. Nevertheless, our study is neither simple nor brief. We recognize that when oil prices escalate dramatically, there will be demand and economic impacts that will alter our simplified assumptions. Consideration of those feedbacks will be a daunting task but one that should be undertaken. Our aim in this study is to-- • Summarize the difficulties of oil production forecasting; • Identify the fundamentals that show why world oil production peaking is such a unique challenge; • Show why mitigation will take a decade or more of intense effort; • Examine the potential economic effects of oil peaking; • Describe what might be accomplished under three example mitigation scenarios. • Stimulate serious discussion of the problem, suggest more definitive studies, and engender interest in timely action to mitigate its impacts.

  13. Time-of-use based electricity demand response for sustainable manufacturing systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Yong; Li, Lin

    2013-01-01

    As required by the Energy Policy Act of 2005, utility companies across the U.S. are offering TOU (time-of-use) based electricity demand response programs. The TOU rate gives consumers opportunities to manage their electricity bill by shifting use from on-peak periods to mid-peak and off-peak periods. Reducing the amount of electricity needed during the peak load times makes it possible for the power grid to meet consumers' needs without building more costly backup infrastructures and help reduce GHG (greenhouse gas) emissions. Previous research on the applications of TOU and other electricity demand response programs has been mainly focused on residential and commercial buildings while largely neglected industrial manufacturing systems. This paper proposes a systems approach for TOU based electricity demand response for sustainable manufacturing systems under the production target constraint. Key features of this approach include: (i) the electricity related costs including both consumption and demand are integrated into production system modeling; (ii) energy-efficient and demand-responsive production scheduling problems are formulated and the solution technique is provided; and (iii) the effects of various factors on the near-optimal scheduling solutions are examined. The research outcome is expected to enhance the energy efficiency, electricity demand responsiveness, and cost effectiveness of modern manufacturing systems. - Highlights: • We propose a TOU based demand response approach for manufacturing systems. • Both electricity consumption and demand are integrated into the system modeling. • Energy-efficient and demand-responsive production scheduling problems are formulated. • The meta-heuristic solution technique is provided. • The effects of various factors on the scheduling solutions are examined

  14. Automated Critical PeakPricing Field Tests: 2006 Pilot ProgramDescription and Results

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Piette, Mary Ann; Watson, David; Motegi, Naoya; Kiliccote, Sila

    2007-06-19

    During 2006 Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) and the Demand Response Research Center (DRRC) performed a technology evaluation for the Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PG&E) Emerging Technologies Programs. This report summarizes the design, deployment, and results from the 2006 Automated Critical Peak Pricing Program (Auto-CPP). The program was designed to evaluate the feasibility of deploying automation systems that allow customers to participate in critical peak pricing (CPP) with a fully-automated response. The 2006 program was in operation during the entire six-month CPP period from May through October. The methodology for this field study included site recruitment, control strategy development, automation system deployment, and evaluation of sites' participation in actual CPP events through the summer of 2006. LBNL recruited sites in PG&E's territory in northern California through contacts from PG&E account managers, conferences, and industry meetings. Each site contact signed a memorandum of understanding with LBNL that outlined the activities needed to participate in the Auto-CPP program. Each facility worked with LBNL to select and implement control strategies for demand response and developed automation system designs based on existing Internet connectivity and building control systems. Once the automation systems were installed, LBNL conducted communications tests to ensure that the Demand Response Automation Server (DRAS) correctly provided and logged the continuous communications of the CPP signals with the energy management and control system (EMCS) for each site. LBNL also observed and evaluated Demand Response (DR) shed strategies to ensure proper commissioning of controls. The communication system allowed sites to receive day-ahead as well as day-of signals for pre-cooling, a DR strategy used at a few sites. Measurement of demand response was conducted using two different baseline models for estimating peak load savings. One

  15. Peak-load management, the security of supply warranty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2010-01-01

    Even if France owns an efficient power generation park, largely exporting and clean (90% with no CO 2 emission), it encounters some difficulties during peak-load periods. The successive peak power demand records which are recorded each year represent as many alerts about a possible collapse of the power system. In order to warrant the electricity supply, the present day regulatory framework must be changed to allow the industrial players to carry out the necessary investments

  16. Dramatic Demand Reduction In The Desert Southwest

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boehm, Robert [Univ. of Nevada, Las Vegas, NV (United States); Hsieh, Sean [Univ. of Nevada, Las Vegas, NV (United States); Lee, Joon [Univ. of Nevada, Las Vegas, NV (United States); Baghzouz, Yahia [Univ. of Nevada, Las Vegas, NV (United States); Cross, Andrew [Univ. of Nevada, Las Vegas, NV (United States); Chatterjee, Sarah [NV Energy, Las Vegas, NV (United States)

    2015-07-06

    This report summarizes a project that was funded to the University of Nevada Las Vegas (UNLV), with subcontractors Pulte Homes and NV Energy. The project was motivated by the fact that locations in the Desert Southwest portion of the US demonstrate very high peak electrical demands, typically in the late afternoons in the summer. These high demands often require high priced power to supply the needs, and the large loads can cause grid supply problems. An approach was proposed through this contact that would reduce the peak electrical demands to an anticipated 65% of what code-built houses of the similar size would have. It was proposed to achieve energy reduction through four approaches applied to a development of 185 homes in northwest part of Las Vegas named Villa Trieste. First, the homes would all be highly energy efficient. Secondly, each house would have a PV array installed on it. Third, an advanced demand response technique would be developed to allow the resident to have some control over the energy used. Finally, some type of battery storage would be used in the project. Pulte Homes designed the houses. The company considered initial cost vs. long-term savings and chose options that had relatively short paybacks. HERS (Home Energy Rating Service) ratings for the homes are approximately 43 on this scale. On this scale, code-built homes rate at 100, zero energy homes rate a 0, and Energy Star homes are 85. In addition a 1.764 Wp (peak Watt) rated PV array was used on each house. This was made up of solar shakes that were in visual harmony with the roofing material used. A demand response tool was developed to control the amount of electricity used during times of peak demand. While demand response techniques have been used in the utility industry for some time, this particular approach is designed to allow the customer to decide the degree of participation in the response activity. The temperature change in the residence can be decided by the residents by

  17. Demand Shifting With Thermal Mass in Large Commercial Buildings:Field Tests, Simulation and Audits

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xu, Peng; Haves, Philip; Piette, Mary Ann; Zagreus, Leah

    2005-09-01

    The principle of pre-cooling and demand limiting is to pre-cool buildings at night or in the morning during off-peak hours, storing cooling in the building thermal mass and thereby reducing cooling loads and reducing or shedding related electrical demand during the peak periods. Cost savings are achieved by reducing on-peak energy and demand charges. The potential for utilizing building thermal mass for load shifting and peak demand reduction has been demonstrated in a number of simulation, laboratory, and field studies (Braun 1990, Ruud et al. 1990, Conniff 1991, Andresen and Brandemuehl 1992, Mahajan et al. 1993, Morris et al. 1994, Keeney and Braun 1997, Becker and Paciuk 2002, Xu et al. 2003). This technology appears to have significant potential for demand reduction if applied within an overall demand response program. The primary goal associated with this research is to develop information and tools necessary to assess the viability of and, where appropriate, implement demand response programs involving building thermal mass in buildings throughout California. The project involves evaluating the technology readiness, overall demand reduction potential, and customer acceptance for different classes of buildings. This information can be used along with estimates of the impact of the strategies on energy use to design appropriate incentives for customers.

  18. Retail Demand Response in Southwest Power Pool

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bharvirkar, Ranjit; Heffner, Grayson; Goldman, Charles

    2009-01-30

    among SPP members. For these entities, investment in DR is often driven by the need to reduce summer peak demand that is used to set demand charges for each distribution cooperative. o About 65-70percent of the interruptible/curtailable tariffs and DLC programs are routinely triggered based on market conditions, not just for system emergencies. Approximately, 53percent of the DR resources are available with less than two hours advance notice and 447 MW can be dispatched with less than thirty minutes notice. o Most legacy DR programs offered a reservation payment ($/kW) for participation; incentive payment levels ranged from $0.40 to $8.30/kW-month for interruptible rate tariffs and $0.30 to $4.60/kW-month for DLC programs. A few interruptible programs offered incentive payments which were explicitly linkedto actual load reductions during events; payments ranged from 2 to 40 cents/kWh for load curtailed.

  19. Evaluation of automated residential demand response with flat and dynamic pricing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Swisher, Joel; Wang, Kitty; Stewart, Stewart

    2005-01-01

    This paper reviews the performance of two recent automated load management programs for residential customers of electric utilities in two American states. Both pilot programs have been run with about 200 participant houses each, and both programs have control populations of similar customers without the technology or program treatment. In both cases, the technology used in the pilot is GoodWatts, an advanced, two-way, real-time, comprehensive home energy management system. The purpose of each pilot is to determine the household kW reduction in coincident peak electric load from the energy management technology. Nevada Power has conducted a pilot program for Air-Conditioning Load Management (ACLM), in which customers are sent an electronic curtailment signal for three-hour intervals during times of maximum peak demand. The participating customers receive an annual incentive payment, but otherwise they are on a conventional utility tariff. In California, three major utilities are jointly conducting a pilot demonstration of an Automated Demand Response System (ADRS). Customers are on a time-of-use (ToU) tariff, which includes a critical peak pricing (CPP) element. During times of maximum peak demand, customers are sent an electronic price signal that is three times higher than the normal on-peak price. Houses with the automated GoodWatts technology reduced their demand in both the ACLM and the ADRS programs by about 50% consistently across the summer curtailment or super peak events, relative to homes without the technology or any load management program or tariff in place. The absolute savings were greater in the ACLM program, due to the higher baseline air conditioning loads in the hotter Las Vegas climate. The results suggest that either automated technology or dynamic pricing can deliver significant demand response in low-consumption houses. However, for high-consumption houses, automated technology can reduce load by a greater absolute kWh difference. Targeting

  20. Air-conditioning Australian households: The impact of dynamic peak pricing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Strengers, Yolande

    2010-01-01

    International mandates for smart metering are enabling variable and real-time pricing regimes such as dynamic peak pricing (DPP), which charges 10-40 times the off-peak rate for electricity during short periods. This regime aims to reduce peak electricity demand (predominantly due to increase in residential air-conditioning usage) and curb greenhouse gas emissions. Although trials indicate that DPP can achieve significant demand reductions, particularly in summer, little is known about how or why households change their cooling practices in response to this strategy. This paper discusses the outcomes of a small qualitative study assessing the impact of a DPP trial on household cooling practices in the Australian state of New South Wales. The study challenges common assumptions about the necessity of air-conditioning and impact of price signals. It finds that DPP engages households as co-managers of their cooling practices through a series of notification signals (SMS, phone, in-home display, email, etc.). Further, by linking the price signal to air-conditioning, some householders consider this practice discretionary for short periods of time. The paper concludes by warning that policy makers and utilities may serve to legitimise air-conditioning usage and/or negate demand reductions by failing to acknowledge the non-rational dynamics of DPP and household cooling practices. - Research highlights: →Most householders consider air-conditioning discretionary during DPP events →DPP engages householders as co-managers of their demand →Notification of an upcoming DPP event is significant to the response →Householders feel obligated to respond to DPP for a range of non-financial reasons

  1. Superoxide dismutase levels and peak expiratory flow in asthmatic children

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arie Kurniasih

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Background Asthma is a chronic inflammatory process which involve variety of cells such as inflammatory mediators, reactive oxygen species (ROS, and cytokines. The inflammatory process would be exacerbated in the presence of oxidative stress. Superoxide dismutase (SOD is the first important enzyme to protect the respiratory tract against oxidative stress. The decreased of SOD has a correlation with increased of airway obstruction and bronchospasm. Objective To assess for a correlation between superoxide dismutase (SOD levels and peak expiratory flow, as well as to determine the impact of SOD levels for predicting asthma attacks. Methods We conducted a prospective cohort study at Dr. Sardjito Hospital, Yogyakarta, between February and April 2011 involving asthmatic children aged 5-18 years. Subjects’ serum SOD levels and peak expiratory flow were measured at the same time point. We then performed a prospective study following up on the same subjects to find out if they had a recurrent asthma attack within one month of the tests. We also reassessed their peak expiratory flow one month after blood specimens were obtained. Results Thirty-nine patients were enrolled in this study. There was no significant correlation between SOD level and peak expiratory flow [r=0.289; 95%CI -0.025 to 0.47; P=0.074]. However, older age was significantly associated with higher peak expiratory flow (=0.5; 95%CI 3.10 to 11.57; P=0.01. Lower levels of SOD increased the risk of asthma attacks in a month following the initial measurements (RR=5.5; 95%CI 1.6 to 18.9; P=0.009. Conclusion Superoxide dismutase (SOD level is not significantly associated with peak expiratory flow. However, we find a relationship between older age and higher peak expiratory flow and a relationship between lower SOD levels and risk of asthma attacks within one month following the tests.

  2. National energy peak leveling program (NEPLP). Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    1977-12-01

    This multisectioned three-Volume report is responsive to the requirements of Contract E (04-3)-1152 to provide a detailed methodology, to include management, technology, and socio-economic aspects, of a voluntary community program of computer-assisted peak load leveling and energy conservation in commercial community facilities. The demonstration project established proof-of-concept in reducing the kW-demand peak by the unofficial goal of 10%, with concurrent kWh savings. This section of volume III contains appendixes of information on load shedding determination, analysis, socio-economic study, contractual cross references, and definitions.

  3. National energy peak leveling program (NEPLP). Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    1977-12-01

    This three-volume report is responsive to the requirements of contract E (04-3)-1152 to provide a detailed methodology, to include management, technology, and socio-economic aspects, of a voluntary community program for computer-assisted peak load leveling and energy conservation in commercial community facilities. The demonstration project established proof-of-concept in reducing the kW-demand peak by the unofficial goal of 10%, with concurrent kWh savings. The report consists of the following three volumes: Volume I: management overview; Volume II: methodology and technology; and Volume III; appendices.

  4. Demand for power in Calcutta Electricity Supply Corporation area

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Banerjee, N

    1980-07-01

    Since the early 1970's there has been a continuous crisis of power supply to the Calcutta industrial region. Historical records show that only the peak demand has grown and has a potential for growth, which, with an unchanging base demand, results in a low load factor and consequently inefficient power system operation. Attempts to shift industrial loads by operating industrial plants during non-peak hours are described. Adverse economic conditions eliminated the need for extra working shifts. It is concluded that the power system supplying the Calcutta region has an insufficient peak load generating capacity and an uneconomic load curve and that stricter hourly schedules for power use by industries should be adhered to in order to minimize these problems. (LCL)

  5. Economic effects of peak oil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lutz, Christian; Lehr, Ulrike; Wiebe, Kirsten S.

    2012-01-01

    Assuming that global oil production peaked, this paper uses scenario analysis to show the economic effects of a possible supply shortage and corresponding rise in oil prices in the next decade on different sectors in Germany and other major economies such as the US, Japan, China, the OPEC or Russia. Due to the price-inelasticity of oil demand the supply shortage leads to a sharp increase in oil prices in the second scenario, with high effects on GDP comparable to the magnitude of the global financial crises in 2008/09. Oil exporting countries benefit from high oil prices, whereas oil importing countries are negatively affected. Generally, the effects in the third scenario are significantly smaller than in the second, showing that energy efficiency measures and the switch to renewable energy sources decreases the countries' dependence on oil imports and hence reduces their vulnerability to oil price shocks on the world market. - Highlights: ► National and sectoral economic effects of peak oil until 2020 are modelled. ► The price elasticity of oil demand is low resulting in high price fluctuations. ► Oil shortage strongly affects transport and indirectly all other sectors. ► Global macroeconomic effects are comparable to the 2008/2009 crisis. ► Country effects depend on oil imports and productivity, and economic structures.

  6. A Distributed Intelligent Automated Demand Response Building Management System

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Auslander, David [Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States); Culler, David [Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States); Wright, Paul [Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States); Lu, Yan [Siemens Corporate Research Inc., Princeton, NJ (United States); Piette, Mary [Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2013-03-31

    The goal of the 2.5 year Distributed Intelligent Automated Demand Response (DIADR) project was to reduce peak electricity load of Sutardja Dai Hall at UC Berkeley by 30% while maintaining a healthy, comfortable, and productive environment for the occupants. We sought to bring together both central and distributed control to provide “deep” demand response1 at the appliance level of the building as well as typical lighting and HVAC applications. This project brought together Siemens Corporate Research and Siemens Building Technology (the building has a Siemens Apogee Building Automation System (BAS)), Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (leveraging their Open Automated Demand Response (openADR), Auto-­Demand Response, and building modeling expertise), and UC Berkeley (related demand response research including distributed wireless control, and grid-­to-­building gateway development). Sutardja Dai Hall houses the Center for Information Technology Research in the Interest of Society (CITRIS), which fosters collaboration among industry and faculty and students of four UC campuses (Berkeley, Davis, Merced, and Santa Cruz). The 141,000 square foot building, occupied in 2009, includes typical office spaces and a nanofabrication laboratory. Heating is provided by a district heating system (steam from campus as a byproduct of the campus cogeneration plant); cooling is provided by one of two chillers: a more typical electric centrifugal compressor chiller designed for the cool months (Nov-­ March) and a steam absorption chiller for use in the warm months (April-­October). Lighting in the open office areas is provided by direct-­indirect luminaries with Building Management System-­based scheduling for open areas, and occupancy sensors for private office areas. For the purposes of this project, we focused on the office portion of the building. Annual energy consumption is approximately 8053 MWh; the office portion is estimated as 1924 MWh. The maximum peak load

  7. A bi-level integrated generation-transmission planning model incorporating the impacts of demand response by operation simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Ning; Hu, Zhaoguang; Springer, Cecilia; Li, Yanning; Shen, Bo

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • We put forward a novel bi-level integrated power system planning model. • Generation expansion planning and transmission expansion planning are combined. • The effects of two sorts of demand response in reducing peak load are considered. • Operation simulation is conducted to reflect the actual effects of demand response. • The interactions between the two levels can guarantee a reasonably optimal result. - Abstract: If all the resources in power supply side, transmission part, and power demand side are considered together, the optimal expansion scheme from the perspective of the whole system can be achieved. In this paper, generation expansion planning and transmission expansion planning are combined into one model. Moreover, the effects of demand response in reducing peak load are taken into account in the planning model, which can cut back the generation expansion capacity and transmission expansion capacity. Existing approaches to considering demand response for planning tend to overestimate the impacts of demand response on peak load reduction. These approaches usually focus on power reduction at the moment of peak load without considering the situations in which load demand at another moment may unexpectedly become the new peak load due to demand response. These situations are analyzed in this paper. Accordingly, a novel approach to incorporating demand response in a planning model is proposed. A modified unit commitment model with demand response is utilized. The planning model is thereby a bi-level model with interactions between generation-transmission expansion planning and operation simulation to reflect the actual effects of demand response and find the reasonably optimal planning result.

  8. Climate change and energy demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hengeveld, H.G.

    1991-01-01

    Climate and weather events affect energy demand in most economic sectors. Linear relationships exist between consumption and heating degree days, and peak electricity demand increases significantly during heat waves. The relative magnitudes of demand changes for a two times carbon dioxide concentration scenario are tabulated, illustrating heating degree days and cooling degree days for 5 Prairie locations. Irrigation, water management, crop seeding and harvesting and weed control are examples of climate-dependent agricultural activities involving significant energy use. The variability of summer season liquid fuel use in the agricultural sector in the Prairie provinces from 1984-1989 shows a relationship between agricultural energy use and regional climate fluctuations. 4 refs., 2 figs., 1 tab

  9. Monthly Electrical Energy Overview October 2017

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2017-11-01

    This publication presents the electricity characteristics and noteworthy developments in France every month: consumption, generation, renewable energies, cross-border trades and transmission system developments, along with feedback on the highlights affecting this data. This issue presents the key figures for Monthly gross domestic demand fell by 5.2% compared to October 2016, due to above-normal temperatures. The monthly trade balance was in favour of exports. Total demand corrected for climate contingencies remained stable. Demand by heavy industry continued its upward trend. Monthly nuclear generation fell by 3.3% compared to October 2016. The rainfall deficit resulted in a reduction of almost 11% in hydropower production compared to October 2016. Wind power production rose 46.7% compared to October 2016. Photovoltaic production fell by 2.2% compared to October 2016. The solar load factor fell in almost all French regions compared to October 2016. Market prices continued to increase, in particular in Belgium and in France where nuclear availability was strongly reduced. The monthly balance of trade for France was once again positive in October 2017. 15 new installations went into service in October

  10. Ontario demand response scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rowlands, I.H.

    2005-09-01

    Strategies for demand management in Ontario were examined via 2 scenarios for a commercial/institutional building with a normal summertime peak load of 300 kW between 14:00 and 18:00 during a period of high electricity demand and high electricity prices. The first scenario involved the deployment of a 150 kW on-site generator fuelled by either diesel or natural gas. The second scenario involved curtailing load by 60 kW during the same periods. Costs and benefits of both scenarios were evaluated for 3 groups: consumers, system operators and society. Benefits included electricity cost savings, deferred transmission capacity development, lower system prices for electricity, as well as environmental changes, economic development, and a greater sense of corporate social responsibility. It was noted that while significant benefits were observed for all 3 groups, they were not substantial enough to encourage action, as the savings arising from deferred generation capacity development do not accrue to individual players. The largest potential benefit was identified as lower prices, spread across all users of electricity in Ontario. It was recommended that representative bodies cooperate so that the system-wide benefits can be reaped. It was noted that if 10 municipal utilities were able to have 250 commercial or institutional customers engaged in distributed response, then a total peak demand reduction of 375 MW could be achieved, representing more than 25 per cent of Ontario's target for energy conservation. It was concluded that demand response often involves the investment of capital and new on-site procedures, which may affect reactions to various incentives. 78 refs., 10 tabs., 5 figs

  11. Enhancement of building operations: A successful approach towards national electrical demand management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Al-Mulla, A.; Maheshwari, G.P.; Al-Nakib, D.; ElSherbini, A.; Alghimlas, F.; Al-Taqi, H.; Al-Hadban, Y.

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: • Enhanced building operations were applied for eight large government buildings in Kuwait. • The enhanced building operations led to demand savings of 8.90 MW during the national peak hour. • Nationwide guidelines were developed for implementing the enhanced operations in similar government buildings in Kuwait. • The peak electrical demand reduction is likely to be 488 MW by the year 2030. - Abstract: An approach for managing electrical demand through enhanced building operations in hot climates is evaluated and demonstrated in this paper. The approach focuses on implementing enhanced operations in government buildings, since they are easier to implement and administer. These enhanced operations included early reduction of cooling supply before the end of the occupancy period, improved time-of-day control after occupancy period and reduced lighting. A total of eight government buildings with different construction and system characteristics were selected for implementing these enhanced operations. These buildings have a total air-conditioning area of 4.39 × 10 5 m 2 and a combined peak electrical demand of 29.3 MW. The enhanced operations resulted in demand savings of 8.90 MW during the national peak hour. Temperatures build up inside the buildings were monitored and found to be within acceptable ranges. Guidelines for nationwide implementation in similar buildings were developed based on the results of this work. Implementation is estimated to reduce demand by 488 MW by the year 2030, which amounts to capital savings of $585 million. These projected values would be important to adopt energy efficient policies for the country. Additional reductions in energy and fuel consumption are added benefits, which would result in large financial and environmental savings to the country. Moreover, the enhanced building operations would be an important tool to avoid any blackouts by properly reducing the peak electrical demand as well as operating the

  12. The influence of wheelchair propulsion technique on upper extremity muscle demand: a simulation study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rankin, Jeffery W; Kwarciak, Andrew M; Richter, W Mark; Neptune, Richard R

    2012-11-01

    The majority of manual wheelchair users will experience upper extremity injuries or pain, in part due to the high force requirements, repetitive motion and extreme joint postures associated with wheelchair propulsion. Recent studies have identified cadence, contact angle and peak force as important factors for reducing upper extremity demand during propulsion. However, studies often make comparisons between populations (e.g., able-bodied vs. paraplegic) or do not investigate specific measures of upper extremity demand. The purpose of this study was to use a musculoskeletal model and forward dynamics simulations of wheelchair propulsion to investigate how altering cadence, peak force and contact angle influence individual muscle demand. Forward dynamics simulations of wheelchair propulsion were generated to emulate group-averaged experimental data during four conditions: 1) self-selected propulsion technique, and while 2) minimizing cadence, 3) maximizing contact angle, and 4) minimizing peak force using biofeedback. Simulations were used to determine individual muscle mechanical power and stress as measures of muscle demand. Minimizing peak force and cadence had the lowest muscle power requirements. However, minimizing peak force increased cadence and recovery power, while minimizing cadence increased average muscle stress. Maximizing contact angle increased muscle stress and had the highest muscle power requirements. Minimizing cadence appears to have the most potential for reducing muscle demand and fatigue, which could decrease upper extremity injuries and pain. However, altering any of these variables to extreme values appears to be less effective; instead small to moderate changes may better reduce overall muscle demand. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Smart households: Dispatch strategies and economic analysis of distributed energy storage for residential peak shaving

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zheng, Menglian; Meinrenken, Christoph J.; Lackner, Klaus S.

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Cost-effectiveness of building-based storage for peak shaving has hitherto not been well understood. • Several existing storage technologies are shown to provide cost-effective peak shaving. • Setting grid demand targets rather than hard demand limits improves economics. • Accounting for seasonal demand variations in storage dispatch strategy improves economics further. • Total-energy-throughput approach is used to determine storage lifetimes. - Abstract: Meeting time-varying peak demand poses a key challenge to the U.S. electricity system. Building-based electricity storage – to enable demand response (DR) without curtailing actual appliance usage – offers potential benefits of lower electricity production cost, higher grid reliability, and more flexibility to integrate renewables. DR tariffs are currently available in the U.S. but building-based storage is still underutilized due to insufficiently understood cost-effectiveness and dispatch strategies. Whether DR schemes can yield a profit for building operators (i.e., reduction in electricity bill that exceeds levelized storage cost) and which particular storage technology yields the highest profit is yet to be answered. This study aims to evaluate the economics of providing peak shaving DR under a realistic tariff (Con Edison, New York), using a range of storage technologies (conventional and advanced batteries, flywheel, magnetic storage, pumped hydro, compressed air, and capacitors). An agent-based stochastic model is used to randomly generate appliance-level demand profiles for an average U.S. household. We first introduce a levelized storage cost model which is based on a total-energy-throughput lifetime. We then develop a storage dispatch strategy which optimizes the storage capacity and the demand limit on the grid. We find that (i) several storage technologies provide profitable DR; (ii) annual profit from such DR can range from 1% to 39% of the household’s non-DR electricity

  14. Addressing Energy Demand through Demand Response. International Experiences and Practices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shen, Bo [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Ghatikar, Girish [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Ni, Chun Chun [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Dudley, Junqiao [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Martin, Phil [Enernoc, Inc., Boston, MA (United States); Wikler, Greg

    2012-06-01

    Demand response (DR) is a load management tool which provides a cost-effective alternative to traditional supply-side solutions to address the growing demand during times of peak electrical load. According to the US Department of Energy (DOE), demand response reflects “changes in electric usage by end-use customers from their normal consumption patterns in response to changes in the price of electricity over time, or to incentive payments designed to induce lower electricity use at times of high wholesale market prices or when system reliability is jeopardized.” 1 The California Energy Commission (CEC) defines DR as “a reduction in customers’ electricity consumption over a given time interval relative to what would otherwise occur in response to a price signal, other financial incentives, or a reliability signal.” 2 This latter definition is perhaps most reflective of how DR is understood and implemented today in countries such as the US, Canada, and Australia where DR is primarily a dispatchable resource responding to signals from utilities, grid operators, and/or load aggregators (or DR providers).

  15. Contribution to performing gas solutions and the complementarity of energies to address electric peak consumptions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2015-01-01

    This article aims at outlining the contribution that gas-based solutions may have for the reduction of the seasonal electricity peak consumption. After having recalled the principles related to electricity peak consumption (daily peak in summer and in winter due to the use of various equipment which lasts few hours, seasonal peak in winter due to the use of electric heating which may last several weeks) and the associated evolution of electricity consumptions over the last years, this article describes the main challenges related to the electric peak consumption: how to maintain the balance in real time between production and consumption. In France, the network manager must use, beside nuclear power stations, thermal productions (gas or coal-based) which result in higher CO 2 emissions. Electricity imports from Germany also degrade the French carbon footprint. Thus, the management of daily and seasonal peaks can be based on three levers of action: to act on supply by developing capacities to face the residual peak, to act on demand by smoothing the load curve by controlling the load of electric equipment, or to act on demand by a global reduction of the thermo-sensitive consumption of electricity

  16. Roadway network productivity assessment : system-wide analysis under variant travel demand

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-11-01

    The analysis documented in this report examines the hypothesis that the system-wide productivity of a metropolitan freeway system in peak periods is higher in moderate travel demand conditions than in excessive travel demand conditions. The approach ...

  17. Feasibility of a 12-month-exercise intervention during and after radiation and chemotherapy in cancer patients: impact on quality of life, peak oxygen consumption, and body composition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grabenbauer, Alexander; Grabenbauer, Andrea J; Lengenfelder, Rosa; Grabenbauer, Gerhard G; Distel, Luitpold V

    2016-03-16

    Accumulating evidence suggests that exercise is effective in treating many of the acute and chronic side effects of anti-cancer therapy. A recent meta-analysis supported the use of exercise to prevent or treat fatigue and lymphoedema and to improve functional status in breast cancer patients. This trial was intended as a controlled, prospective feasibility study evaluating the impact of physical exercise (PE) in cancer patients during and after treatment with radio- and chemotherapy. Inclusion criteria were previous or ongoing treatment for cancer, motivation for PE of 0.5-1hour duration at least twice weekly for at least 3 months. Continuation of PE was encouraged thereafter. Every three months the following endpoints were assessed: Peak oxygen consumption as measured by supervised cardiopulmonary exercise test, body composition and quality of life. A total of 45 patients were included with a median age of 49 years. Forty were female and five male. Cancer types were: Breast cancer (n = 30/67 %), gastrointestinal cancer (n = 5/12 %), other types (n = 10/22 %). Thirty-eight (84 %) of the patients were included during curative treatment of their disease. Seven (16 %) were considered palliative. Adherence to the PE-programme longer than 6 months was noted for 41/45 (91 %) of the patients. Intensity of PE was thrice weekly in 32/45 (71 %), twice weekly in 11/45 (24 %). Two of 45 patients (5 %) had no PE. Mean peak oxygen consumption increased from 18.8 ± 5.6 ml/min/kg to 20.5 ± 3 ml/min/kg and 19.9 ± 4.7 ml/min/kg at 3 months (p = 0.005) and 12 months (p = 0.003), respectively. Median fat mass decreased from 30.7 ± 15 kg to 28.9 ± 15 kg and 29.5 ± 13 kg at 3 months (p = 0.001) and 12 months (p = 0.017), respectively. Global health status scores increased from a median baseline value of 54.9 ± 16.3 to 66.4 ± 14 % and 68.0 ± 20.3 % at 3 months (p = 0.001) and 12 months (p = 0.002), respectively. This exercise programme in cancer patients with 2-3 weekly

  18. Measuring the financial impact of demand response for electricity retailers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Feuerriegel, Stefan; Neumann, Dirk

    2014-01-01

    Due to the integration of intermittent resources of power generation such as wind and solar, the amount of supplied electricity will exhibit unprecedented fluctuations. Electricity retailers can partially meet the challenge of matching demand and volatile supply by shifting power demand according to the fluctuating supply side. The necessary technology infrastructure such as Advanced Metering Infrastructures for this so-called Demand Response (DR) has advanced. However, little is known about the economic dimension and further effort is strongly needed to realistically quantify the financial impact. To succeed in this goal, we derive an optimization problem that minimizes procurement costs of an electricity retailer in order to control Demand Response usage. The evaluation with historic data shows that cost volatility can be reduced by 7.74%; peak costs drop by 14.35%; and expenditures of retailers can be significantly decreased by 3.52%. - Highlights: • Ex post simulation to quantify financial impacts of demand response. • Effects of Demand Response are simulated based on real-world data. • Procurement costs of an average electricity retailer decrease by 3.4%. • Retailers can cut hourly peak expenditures by 12.1%. • Cost volatility is reduced by 12.2%

  19. Spatial peak-load pricing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arellano, M. Soledad; Serra, Pablo

    2007-01-01

    This article extends the traditional electricity peak-load pricing model to include transmission costs. In the context of a two-node, two-technology electric power system, where suppliers face inelastic demand, we show that when the marginal plant is located at the energy-importing center, generators located away from that center should pay the marginal capacity transmission cost; otherwise, consumers should bear this cost through capacity payments. Since electric power transmission is a natural monopoly, marginal-cost pricing does not fully cover costs. We propose distributing the revenue deficit among users in proportion to the surplus they derive from the service priced at marginal cost. (Author)

  20. Participation through Automation: Fully Automated Critical PeakPricing in Commercial Buildings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Piette, Mary Ann; Watson, David S.; Motegi, Naoya; Kiliccote,Sila; Linkugel, Eric

    2006-06-20

    California electric utilities have been exploring the use of dynamic critical peak prices (CPP) and other demand response programs to help reduce peaks in customer electric loads. CPP is a tariff design to promote demand response. Levels of automation in DR can be defined as follows: Manual Demand Response involves a potentially labor-intensive approach such as manually turning off or changing comfort set points at each equipment switch or controller. Semi-Automated Demand Response involves a pre-programmed demand response strategy initiated by a person via centralized control system. Fully Automated Demand Response does not involve human intervention, but is initiated at a home, building, or facility through receipt of an external communications signal. The receipt of the external signal initiates pre-programmed demand response strategies. They refer to this as Auto-DR. This paper describes the development, testing, and results from automated CPP (Auto-CPP) as part of a utility project in California. The paper presents the project description and test methodology. This is followed by a discussion of Auto-DR strategies used in the field test buildings. They present a sample Auto-CPP load shape case study, and a selection of the Auto-CPP response data from September 29, 2005. If all twelve sites reached their maximum saving simultaneously, a total of approximately 2 MW of DR is available from these twelve sites that represent about two million ft{sup 2}. The average DR was about half that value, at about 1 MW. These savings translate to about 0.5 to 1.0 W/ft{sup 2} of demand reduction. They are continuing field demonstrations and economic evaluations to pursue increasing penetrations of automated DR that has demonstrated ability to provide a valuable DR resource for California.

  1. Impact of Smart Grid Technologies on Peak Load to 2050

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2011-07-01

    The IEA's Smart Grids Technology Roadmap identified five global trends that could be effectively addressed by deploying smart grids. These are: increasing peak load (the maximum power that the grid delivers during peak hours), rising electricity consumption, electrification of transport, deployment of variable generation technologies (e.g. wind and solar PV) and ageing infrastructure. Along with this roadmap, a new working paper -- Impact of Smart Grid Technologies on Peak Load to 2050 -- develops a methodology to estimate the evolution of peak load until 2050. It also analyses the impact of smart grid technologies in reducing peak load for four key regions; OECD North America, OECD Europe, OECD Pacific and China. This working paper is a first IEA effort in an evolving modelling process of smart grids that is considering demand response in residential and commercial sectors as well as the integration of electric vehicles.

  2. Health care demand elasticities by type of service.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellis, Randall P; Martins, Bruno; Zhu, Wenjia

    2017-09-01

    We estimate within-year price elasticities of demand for detailed health care services using an instrumental variable strategy, in which individual monthly cost shares are instrumented by employer-year-plan-month average cost shares. A specification using backward myopic prices gives more plausible and stable results than using forward myopic prices. Using 171 million person-months spanning 73 employers from 2008 to 2014, we estimate that the overall demand elasticity by backward myopic consumers is -0.44, with higher elasticities of demand for pharmaceuticals (-0.44), specialists visits (-0.32), MRIs (-0.29) and mental health/substance abuse (-0.26), and lower elasticities for prevention visits (-0.02) and emergency rooms (-0.04). Demand response is lower for children, in larger firms, among hourly waged employees, and for sicker people. Overall the method appears promising for estimating elasticities for highly disaggregated services although the approach does not work well on services that are very expensive or persistent. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Forecasting Monthly Electricity Demands by Wavelet Neuro-Fuzzy System Optimized by Heuristic Algorithms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeng-Fung Chen

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Electricity load forecasting plays a paramount role in capacity planning, scheduling, and the operation of power systems. Reliable and accurate planning and prediction of electricity load are therefore vital. In this study, a novel approach for forecasting monthly electricity demands by wavelet transform and a neuro-fuzzy system is proposed. Firstly, the most appropriate inputs are selected and a dataset is constructed. Then, Haar wavelet transform is utilized to decompose the load data and eliminate noise. In the model, a hierarchical adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (HANFIS is suggested to solve the curse-of-dimensionality problem. Several heuristic algorithms including Gravitational Search Algorithm (GSA, Cuckoo Optimization Algorithm (COA, and Cuckoo Search (CS are utilized to optimize the clustering parameters which help form the rule base, and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS optimize the parameters in the antecedent and consequent parts of each sub-model. The proposed approach was applied to forecast the electricity load of Hanoi, Vietnam. The constructed models have shown high forecasting performances based on the performance indices calculated. The results demonstrate the validity of the approach. The obtained results were also compared with those of several other well-known methods including autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA and multiple linear regression (MLR. In our study, the wavelet CS-HANFIS model outperformed the others and provided more accurate forecasting.

  4. Robust peak-shaving for a neighborhood with electric vehicles

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gerards, Marco Egbertus Theodorus; Hurink, Johann L.

    2016-01-01

    Demand Side Management (DSM) is a popular approach for grid-aware peak-shaving. The most commonly used DSM methods either have no look ahead feature and risk deploying flexibility too early, or they plan ahead using predictions, which are in general not very reliable. To counter this, a DSM approach

  5. 18 month outlook : an assessment of the adequacy of the Ontario electricity system from October 2001 to March 2003

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-01-01

    One of the responsibilities of Ontario's Independent Electricity Market Operator (IMO) is to make sure that existing and proposed generation and transmission facilities can meet the province's energy needs. This report presents an assessment of the adequacy of resources and transmission for Ontario's electricity system for the 18 month period from October 2001 to March 2003. It is also meant to advise the Ontario Energy Board of any adverse conditions that might be avoided through adjustment or coordination of maintenance plans for generation and transmission equipment. The assessment is based on forecasts of electricity demand, available supply and capability of the existing transmission system. Outage plans of generators and transmitters were based on information as of August 3, 2001. An 18 month forecast of electricity demand for Ontario was presented along with the resources and transmission systems that are expected to be available during the study period. The overall assessment is that there will be sufficient resources and transmission available in Ontario to supply the predicted energy demand and to meet the specified reserve margins under the forecasted conditions. The report included graphs which depicted how the weekly peak Ontario demand plus a weekly reserve requirement can be met for each week of the Outlook timeframe. The resource adequacy assessment takes into account all types of weather conditions on a probabilistic basis. 16 tabs., 8 figs

  6. Measurement of biological oxygen demand sandy beaches

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Measurements of biological oxygen demand in a sandy beach using conventional .... counting the cells present in a sample of aged seawater and comparing this with .... This activity peaked at 71 % above the undisturbed level after 16 hours.

  7. Exploring Demand Charge Savings from Commercial Solar

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Darghouth, Naim [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Barbose, Galen [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Mills, Andrew [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Wiser, Ryan [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Gagnon, Pieter [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Bird, Lori [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2017-07-31

    Commercial retail electricity rates commonly include a demand charge component, based on some measure of the customer’s peak demand. Customer-sited solar PV can potentially reduce demand charges, but the magnitude of these savings can be difficult to predict, given variations in demand charge designs, customer loads, and PV generation profiles. Moreover, depending on the circumstances, demand charges from solar may or may not align well with associated utility cost savings. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab) and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) are collaborating in a series of studies to understand how solar PV can reduce demand charge levels for a variety of customer types and demand charges designs. Previous work focused on residential customs with solar. This study, instead, focuses on commercial customers and seeks to understand the extent and conditions under which rooftop can solar reduce commercial demand charges. To answer these questions, we simulate demand charge savings for a broad range of commercial customer types, demand charge designs, locations, and PV system characteristics. This particular analysis does not include storage, but a subsequent analysis in this series will evaluate demand charge savings for commercial customers with solar and storage.

  8. Duration of the pubertal peak in skeletal Class I and Class III subjects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuc-Michalska, Małgorzata; Baccetti, Tiziano

    2010-01-01

    To estimate and compare the duration of the pubertal growth peak in Class I and Class III subjects. The data examined consisted of pretreatment lateral cephalometric records of 218 skeletal Class I or Class III subjects (93 female and 125 male subjects) of white ancestry. The duration of the pubertal peak was calculated from the average chronological age intervals between stages CS3 and CS4 of the cervical vertebral maturation in Class I vs Class III groups (t-test). In skeletal Class I subjects, the pubertal peak had a mean duration of 11 months, whereas in Class III subjects it lasted 16 months. The average difference (5 months) was statistically significant (P < .001). The growth interval corresponding to the pubertal growth spurt (CS3-CS4) was longer in Class III subjects than in subjects with normal skeletal relationships; the larger increases in mandibular length during the pubertal peak reported in the literature for Class III subjects may be related to the longer duration of the pubertal peak.

  9. Opportunities and Challenges of Demand Response in Active Distribution Grids

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ponnaganti, Pavani; Pillai, Jayakrishnan Radhakrishna; Bak-Jensen, Birgitte

    2018-01-01

    In power systems the installed generation capacity must exceed the annual peak demand, even though some capacity is kept idle most of the time. However, if it is uneconomical or not feasible to augment a sufficient capacity, the demand might exceed the available capacity. This mandates the system...

  10. An asthma patient with steroid-resistant decrease in peak expiratory flow after the Great East Japan earthquake showing spontaneous recovery after 1 month.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yanagimoto, Shintaro; Haida, Michiko; Suko, Matsunobu

    2012-01-01

    People living in Japan were affected in various ways after the Great East Japan earthquake of March 11, 2011. A 52-year-old female asthma patient not directly affected by the disaster experienced a decrease in peak expiratory flow (PEF) immediately after the earthquake. Despite increasing the inhaled and oral corticosteroid doses, her PEF did not recover. One month later, her PEF level abruptly returned to normal with minimal medications, which were previously ineffective, and the asthma-related symptoms vanished. The stabilization of her state of mind and actual social state seemed to be a part of the reason for the patient's recovery.

  11. Implementing peak load reduction algorithms for household electrical appliances

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dlamini, Ndumiso G.; Cromieres, Fabien

    2012-01-01

    Considering household appliance automation for reduction of household peak power demand, this study explored aspects of the interaction between household automation technology and human behaviour. Given a programmable household appliance switching system, and user-reported appliance use times, we simulated the load reduction effectiveness of three types of algorithms, which were applied at both the single household level and across all 30 households. All three algorithms effected significant load reductions, while the least-to-highest potential user inconvenience ranking was: coordinating the timing of frequent intermittent loads (algorithm 2); moving period-of-day time-flexible loads to off-peak times (algorithm 1); and applying short-term time delays to avoid high peaks (algorithm 3) (least accommodating). Peak reduction was facilitated by load interruptibility, time of use flexibility and the willingness of users to forgo impulsive appliance use. We conclude that a general factor determining the ability to shift the load due to a particular appliance is the time-buffering between the service delivered and the power demand of an appliance. Time-buffering can be ‘technologically inherent’, due to human habits, or realised by managing user expectations. There are implications for the design of appliances and home automation systems. - Highlights: ► We explored the interaction between appliance automation and human behaviour. ► There is potential for considerable load shifting of household appliances. ► Load shifting for load reduction is eased with increased time buffering. ► Design, human habits and user expectations all influence time buffering. ► Certain automation and appliance design features can facilitate load shifting.

  12. Air pollution impacts from demand-side management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hall, D.C.; Sandii Win, M.; Hall, J.V.

    1995-01-01

    Air-polluting emission rates and energy-efficiency ratings vary widely among power plants, depending on location, age and whether the power plant is repowered. Traditional regulations require installation of specified emission control equipment that varies among power plants. These regulations do not specify that utilities first dispatch the cleanest power plants as demand varies from peak to off-peak periods. This empirical analysis shows, for 2 years out of 20, that demand-side management (DSM) programs increase air pollution. One reason for this result is that regulations require installation of specific emission-control technology but do not provide the incentive to take actual emissions or their air quality impacts into account when operating the system. For certain types of air pollutants and in some regions, regulatory programs now include markets for tradable emission credits. Such programs may alter this incentive. (author)

  13. Monthly Electrical Energy Overview August 2016

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2016-09-01

    This publication presents the electricity characteristics and noteworthy developments in France every month: consumption, generation, renewable energies, cross-border trades and transmission system developments, along with feedback on the highlights affecting this data. This issue presents the key figures for July and August 2016. Demand increased by +1.8% compared to August 2015 due in particular to the heat wave that occurred at the end of the month. Corrected for weather effects, total demand increased, led by the demand from households, professionals and small businesses. To respond to the increased demand resulting from the heat wave, thermal generation using fossil fuel was used (up 145% compared to August 2015). For the first time, solar production broke the 1 TWh threshold in July and August. During the week of the start of the academic year, on Monday, 29 August, the balance of French electricity exchanges was in favour of imports for over 8 hrs. The July/August period was used to put 33 new installations into service

  14. Monthly Electrical Energy Overview Mars 2017

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2017-04-01

    This publication presents the electricity characteristics and noteworthy developments in France every month: consumption, generation, renewable energies, cross-border trades and transmission system developments, along with feedback on the highlights affecting this data. This issue presents the key figures for March 2017. With 2 deg. C over the normal average temperature, March 2017 was the hottest March recorded over the period 1900-2017. Therefore, gross French power demand fell by 9.4% compared to March 2016. A new record instantaneous balance in favour of exports was reached at over 17 GW. Gross demand was down compared to March 2016, due to milder temperatures. RE generation excluding hydraulic rose after 4 months of falls, driven by favourable weather conditions. The maximum coverage rate of demand by wind power generation reached a new record (18.2%) benefiting from the presence of windy conditions over the country in March. The monthly regional coverage rate of demand by generation of renewable origin exceeded 23% in the Occitanie, Auvergne-Rhone-Alpes, Grand-Est, Provence-Alpes-Cote d'Azur and Nouvelle-Aquitaine regions. The fall in prices continued throughout Europe. On 30 March at 19.30 a new record instantaneous balance in favour of exports was recorded at over 17 GW. 1 new installation went into service in March 2017

  15. Gas inventory charges and peak-load reliability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lyon, T.P.; Hackett, S.C.

    1990-01-01

    The natural gas industry has historically been organized through a vertical sequence of long-term contracts, the first between wellhead producer and pipeline, and the second between pipeline and local distribution company (LDC). These long-term contracts contained provisions, variously called take-or-pay (TOP) clauses or minimum bills, that required buyers to pay for a minimum level of supply in all later time periods, regardless of the buyers' actual demand requirements. As a result, the pipeline's purchase obligation was typically offset by the distributor's purchase obligation, so that the pipeline essentially passed the minimum purchase requirement directly from producer to distributor. The authors focus on the role GICs (Gas Inventory Charges) can play in the provision of peak-load reliability, and the effects of GICs and their treatment by regulators on pipeline system design. In particular, they compare the various options available to local distribution companies (LDCs) for providing peak-load reliability, emphasizing the alternative downstream storage. They find that the ratemaking decisions of state regulators may distort LDC choices between different gas supply options, inducing what may be an inefficient demand for new storage facilities. GICs, when competitively prices, offer state regulators a means of circumventing these distortions

  16. Global monthly water stress: II. Water demand and severity of water

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wada, Y.; Beek, L.P.H. van; Viviroli, D.; Dürr, H.H.; Weingartner, R.; Bierkens, M.F.P.

    2011-01-01

    This paper assesses global water stress at a finer temporal scale compared to conventional assessments. To calculate time series of global water stress at a monthly time scale, global water availability, as obtained from simulations of monthly river discharge from the companion paper, is confronted

  17. Feasibility of a 12-month-exercise intervention during and after radiation and chemotherapy in cancer patients: impact on quality of life, peak oxygen consumption, and body composition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grabenbauer, Alexander; Grabenbauer, Andrea J.; Lengenfelder, Rosa; Grabenbauer, Gerhard G.; Distel, Luitpold V.

    2016-01-01

    Accumulating evidence suggests that exercise is effective in treating many of the acute and chronic side effects of anti-cancer therapy. A recent meta-analysis supported the use of exercise to prevent or treat fatigue and lymphoedema and to improve functional status in breast cancer patients. This trial was intended as a controlled, prospective feasibility study evaluating the impact of physical exercise (PE) in cancer patients during and after treatment with radio- and chemotherapy. Inclusion criteria were previous or ongoing treatment for cancer, motivation for PE of 0.5-1hour duration at least twice weekly for at least 3 months. Continuation of PE was encouraged thereafter. Every three months the following endpoints were assessed: Peak oxygen consumption as measured by supervised cardiopulmonary exercise test, body composition and quality of life. A total of 45 patients were included with a median age of 49 years. Forty were female and five male. Cancer types were: Breast cancer (n = 30/67 %), gastrointestinal cancer (n = 5/12 %), other types (n = 10/22 %). Thirty-eight (84 %) of the patients were included during curative treatment of their disease. Seven (16 %) were considered palliative. Adherence to the PE-programme longer than 6 months was noted for 41/45 (91 %) of the patients. Intensity of PE was thrice weekly in 32/45 (71 %), twice weekly in 11/45 (24 %). Two of 45 patients (5 %) had no PE. Mean peak oxygen consumption increased from 18.8 ± 5.6 ml/min/kg to 20.5 ± 3 ml/min/kg and 19.9 ± 4.7 ml/min/kg at 3 months (p = 0.005) and 12 months (p = 0.003), respectively. Median fat mass decreased from 30.7 ± 15 kg to 28.9 ± 15 kg and 29.5 ± 13 kg at 3 months (p = 0.001) and 12 months (p = 0.017), respectively. Global health status scores increased from a median baseline value of 54.9 ± 16.3 to 66.4 ± 14 % and 68.0 ± 20.3 % at 3 months (p = 0.001) and 12 months (p = 0.002), respectively. This exercise programme in cancer patients with 2–3 weekly

  18. Reducing Demand Charges and Onsite Generation Variability Using Behind-the-Meter Energy Storage

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bhattarai, Bishnu P.; Myers, Kurt S.; Bush, Jason W.

    2017-04-01

    Electric utilities in the United States are increasingly employing demand charges and/or real-time pricing. This directive is bringing potential opportunities in deploying behindthe-meter energy storage (BMES) systems for various grid functionalities. This study quantifies techno-economic benefits of BMES in reducing demand charge and smoothing load/generation intermittencies, and determines how those benefits vary with onsite distributed photovoltaic. We proposed a two-stage control algorithm, whereby the first stage proactively determines costoptimal BMES configuration for reducing peak-demands and demand charges, and the second stage adaptively compensates intermittent generations and short load spikes that may otherwise increase the demand charges. The performance of the proposed algorithm is evaluated through a 24 hours time sweep simulation performed using data from smart microgrid testbed at Idaho National Laboratory (INL). The simulation results demonstrated that this research provides a simple but effective solution for peak shaving, demand charge reductions, and smoothing onsite PV variability.

  19. Transportation cost of nuclear off-peak power for hydrogen production based on water electrolysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shimizu, Saburo; Ueno, Shuichi

    2004-01-01

    The paper describes transportation cost of the nuclear off-peak power for a hydrogen production based on water electrolysis in Japan. The power could be obtainable by substituting hydropower and/or fossil fueled power supplying peak and middle demands with nuclear power. The transportation cost of the off-peak power was evaluated to be 1.42 yen/kWh when an electrolyser receives the off-peak power from a 6kV distribution wire. Marked reduction of the cost was caused by the increase of the capacity factor. (author)

  20. Revisiting the Correlations of Peak Luminosity with Spectral Lag and Peak Energy of the Observed Gamma-ray Bursts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yun-A Jo

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available An analysis of light curves and spectra of observed gamma-ray bursts in gamma-ray ranges is frequently demanded because the prompt emission contains immediate details regarding the central engine of gamma-ray bursts (GRBs. We have revisited the relationship between the collimation-corrected peak luminosity and the spectral lag, investigating the lag-luminosity relationships in great detail by focusing on spectral lags resulting from all possible combinations of channels. Firstly, we compiled the opening angle data and demonstrated that the distribution of opening angles of 205 long GRBs is represented by a double Gaussian function having maxima at ~ 0.1 and ~ 0.3 radians. We confirmed that the peak luminosity and the spectral lag are anti-correlated, both in the observer frame and in the source frame. We found that, in agreement with our previous conclusion, the correlation coefficient improves significantly in the source frame. It should be noted that spectral lags involving channel 2 (25-50 keV yield high correlation coefficients, where Swift/Burst Alert Telescope (BAT has four energy channels (channel 1: 15-25 keV, channel 2: 25-50 keV, channel 3: 50-100 keV, channel 4: 100-200 keV. We also found that peak luminosity is positively correlated with peak energy.

  1. Mechanical demands of kettlebell swing exercise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lake, Jason P; Lauder, Mike A

    2012-12-01

    The aims of this study were to establish mechanical demands of kettlebell swing exercise and provide context by comparing them to mechanical demands of back squat and jump squat exercise. Sixteen men performed 2 sets of 10 swings with 16, 24, and 32 kg, 2 back squats with 20, 40, 60, and 80% 1-repetition maximum (1RM), and 2 jump squats with 0, 20, 40, and 60% 1RM. Sagittal plane motion and ground reaction forces (GRFs) were recorded during swing performance, and GRFs were recorded during back and jump squat performances. Net impulse, and peak and mean propulsion phase force and power applied to the center of mass (CM) were obtained from GRF data and kettlebell displacement and velocity from motion data. The results of repeated measures analysis of variance showed that all swing CM measures were maximized during the 32-kg condition but that velocity of the kettlebell was maximized during the 16-kg condition; displacement was consistent across different loads. Peak and mean force tended to be greater during back and jump squat performances, but swing peak and mean power were greater than back squat power and largely comparable with jump squat power. However, the highest net impulse was recorded during swing exercise with 32 kg (276.1 ± 45.3 N·s vs. 60% 1RM back squat: 182.8 ± 43.1 N·s, and 40% jump squat: 231.3 ± 47.1 N·s). These findings indicate a large mechanical demand during swing exercise that could make swing exercise a useful addition to strength and conditioning programs that aim to develop the ability to rapidly apply force.

  2. Demand management through centralized control system using power line communication for existing buildings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Al-Mulla, A.; ElSherbini, A.

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • A pilot system was developed for demand management of equipment in buildings. • The networking was based on LonWorks platform and power line communication. • Demand strategies led to load reductions up to 74% and energy savings up to 25%. • The peak load reduction is expected to reach 3.44 GW by the year 2030. - Abstract: Managing peak demand efficiently is vital for maintaining uninterrupted supply of electrical power by utility providers. In this work, a pilot system was developed for managing and controlling the demand of major power consuming equipment in buildings from a central server, while relying mostly on existing infrastructure and maintaining consumer comfort. The system was successfully demonstrated on a selected group of buildings using the LonWorks networking platform. At the building level, the system utilized power line and twisted pair communication to control the thermostats of air-conditioning (A/C) units. The higher level communication was executed through extensible markup language (XML) and simple object access protocol (SOAP). The system provided control capabilities based on A/C unit priority, thermostat temperature, building type and geographic location. The development and execution of demand management strategies for selected buildings led to peak load reductions up to 74%, in addition to energy savings up to 25%. Implementing such a system at a national level in Kuwait is estimated to reduce peak demand by 3.44 GW, amounting to capital savings of $4.13 billion. The use of existing infrastructure reduced the cost and installation time of the system. Based on the successful testing of this pilot system, a larger-scale system is being developed

  3. Effects of demand elasticity and price variation on load profile

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Maqbool, S.D.; Babar, M.; Al-Ammar, E.A.

    2011-01-01

    Optimizing the operation of power generation systems is one of the core objectives of Smart Grid. The area of Smart Grid focuses on this issue is Demand Response (DR). DR is an essential tool to limit the demand to flatten spikes. This can reduce the need of peak power generation units which

  4. Monthly Electrical Energy Overview September 2017

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2017-10-01

    This publication presents the electricity characteristics and noteworthy developments in France every month: consumption, generation, renewable energies, cross-border trades and transmission system developments, along with feedback on the highlights affecting this data. This issue presents the key figures for September 2017. Gross domestic demand increased slightly compared to September 2016, despite a monthly average temperature of less than 3.4 deg. C. The monthly balance of trade was positive (i.e. France was a net exporter) and increased by 73% compared to September 2016. Total demand corrected for climate contingencies remained stable. Demand by large industry continued its upward trend. Nuclear generation was up 11% compared to September 2016 and reached 29.3 TWh. Wind power production increased 66% compared to September 2016. The Greoux-les-Bains photovoltaic plant was connected to the public electricity transmission network. The plant has a generating power of 70 MW. The Grand-Est and Hauts-de-France regions really benefited from the strong winds observed across France. They thus contributed the most to the record levels of solar and wind generation recorded in September. Market prices were up in most European countries despite a notable decline in week 37. The monthly balance of trade remained exporter. 15 new installations went into service in September

  5. A future Demand Side Management (DSM) opportunity for utility as variable renewable penetrate scale up using agriculture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ines, A.; Bhattacharjee, A.; Modi, V.; Robertson, A. W.; Lall, U.; Kocaman Ayse, S.; Chaudhary, S.; Kumar, A.; Ganapathy, A.; Kumar, A.; Mishra, V.

    2015-12-01

    Energy demand management, also known as demand side management (DSM), is the modification of consumer demand for energy through various methods such as smart metering, incentive based schemes, payments for turning off loads or rescheduling loads. Usually, the goal of demand side management is to encourage the consumer to use less power during periods of peak demand, or to move the time of energy use to off-peak times. Peak demand management does not necessarily decrease total energy consumption, but could be expected to reduce the need for investments in networks and/or power plants for meeting peak demands. Electricity use can vary dramatically on short and medium time frames, and the pricing system may not reflect the instantaneous cost as additional higher-cost that are brought on-line. In addition, the capacity or willingness of electricity consumers to adjust to prices by altering elasticity of demand may be low, particularly over short time frames. In the scenario of Indian grid setup, the retail customers do not follow real-time pricing and it is difficult to incentivize the utility companies for continuing the peak demand supply. A question for the future is how deeper penetration of renewable will be handled? This is a challenging problem since one has to deal with high variability, while managing loss of load probabilities. In the case of managing the peak demand using agriculture, in the future as smart metering matures with automatic turn on/off for a pump, it will become possible to provide an ensured amount of water or energy to the farmer while keeping the grid energized for 24 hours. Supply scenarios will include the possibility of much larger penetration of solar and wind into the grid. While, in absolute terms these sources are small contributors, their role will inevitably grow but DSM using agriculture could help reduce the capital cost. The other option is of advancing or delaying pump operating cycle even by several hours, will still ensure

  6. Demand side resource operation on the Irish power system with high wind power penetration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Keane, A.; Tuohy, A.; Meibom, P.; Denny, E.; Flynn, D.; Mullane, A.; O'Malley, M.

    2011-01-01

    The utilisation of demand side resources is set to increase over the coming years with the advent of advanced metering infrastructure, home area networks and the promotion of increased energy efficiency. Demand side resources are proposed as an energy resource that, through aggregation, can form part of the power system plant mix and contribute to the flexible operation of a power system. A model for demand side resources is proposed here that captures its key characteristics for commitment and dispatch calculations. The model is tested on the all island Irish power system, and the operation of the model is simulated over one year in both a stochastic and deterministic mode, to illustrate the impact of wind and load uncertainty. The results illustrate that demand side resources can contribute to the efficient, flexible operation of systems with high penetrations of wind by replacing some of the functions of conventional peaking plant. Demand side resources are also shown to be capable of improving the reliability of the system, with reserve capability identified as a key requirement in this respect. - Highlights: → Demand side resource model presented for use in unit commitment and dispatch calculations. → Benefits of demand side aggregation demonstrated specifically as a peaking unit and provider of reserve. → Potential to displace or defer construction of conventional peaking units.

  7. Demand response offered by households with direct electric heating

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kofod, C.; Togeby, M.

    2004-01-01

    The peak power balance in the Nordic power system is gradually turning to be very tight, especially in the electric area of southern Sweden and eastern Denmark. Power stations are closed and hardly any investments in new production are carried out. Demand response is considered essential when the formation of spot prices shall send the signal of needed investments in new capacity. Demand response which are based on individual preferences, and carried out automatically, can be one way to increase the volume of price elastic demand. Demand response need hourly metering for calculation and documentation of the decrease in demand, and controllability in order to meet the timing requirements. Within the EU SAVE project EFFLOCOM (2002 - 2004), a Danish demand response pilot project was established in 2003 including 25 single family homes with direct electrical heating. The system has been tested during the winter 2003/2004. The tested technologies include hourly metering, communication by GRPS as well as the Internet. GPRS is used for daily remote meter reading and automatic control of the electric heating including individual control of up to five zones. The system is designed for automatic activation when the Nord Pool hourly Elspot prices exceed preset levels. The system can also be used as regulating power. The EFFLOCOM Web Bite includes an interactive demonstrator of the system. The developed customer Web Bite is including the services: 1) Access to setting the limits for the maximum duration of interruption for up to five different control zones for two periods of the day and for three price levels. 2) Access to stop an actual interruption. 3) A report on the hourly, daily, weekly and monthly use of electricity and the saved bonus by demand response control. The report is updated daily. The goals of up to 5 kW controlled per house were fulfilled. Besides the demand response bonus the customers have also saved electricity. A customer survey did show that the

  8. Stochastic–multiobjective market equilibrium analysis of a demand response program in energy market under uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hu, Ming-Che; Lu, Su-Ying; Chen, Yen-Haw

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • Analyze the impact of a demand response program under uncertainty. • Stochastic Nash–Cournot competition model is formulated. • Case study of the Taiwanese electric power market is conducted. • Demand response decreases power price, generation, and emissions. • Demand uncertainty increases energy price and supply risk in the results. - Abstract: In the electricity market, demand response programs are designed to shift peak demand and enhance system reliability. A demand response program can reduce peak energy demand, power transmission congestion, or high energy-price conditions by changing consumption patterns. The purpose of this research is to analyze the impact of a demand response program in the energy market, under demand uncertainty. A stochastic–multiobjective Nash–Cournot competition model is formulated to simulate demand response in an uncertain energy market. Then, Karush–Kuhn–Tucker optimality conditions and a linear complementarity problem are derived for the stochastic Nash–Cournot model. Accordingly, the linear complementarity problem is solved and its stochastic market equilibrium solution is determined by using a general algebraic modeling system. Additionally, the case of the Taiwanese electric power market is taken up here, and the results show that a demand response program is capable of reducing peak energy consumption, energy price, and carbon dioxide emissions. The results show that demand response program decreases electricity price by 2–10%, total electricity generation by 0.5–2%, and carbon dioxide emissions by 0.5–2.5% in the Taiwanese power market. In the simulation, demand uncertainty leads to an 2–7% increase in energy price and supply risk in the market. Additionally, tradeoffs between cost and carbon dioxide emissions are presented.

  9. IDENTIFICATIONS PEAK HOURS ON INTERSECTIONS SET IN BIELSKO-BIAŁA CITY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcin KŁOS

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Traffic flow in cities is usually examined locally. This method is not effective for through traffic analysis. The paper discusses the problem of determining peak traffic hours taking into account vehicle distributions. Peak hours represent time periods of traffic flow which demand special treatment by traffic control systems. This is particularly important in the case of ITS. High values of traffic flow require relieving actions not only at the junctions but preferably along the transit routes. The north-south transit route in Bielsko-Biała was chosen for analysis. Instead of the usual two distinct peaks it is determined that the traffic flow is characterised by five peaks. This pattern is the result of specific location of the route, which links residential areas, industrial zones and shopping centres besides carrying through traffic. This multi peak graph more accurately models the traffic flow.

  10. US EPA's photovoltaic demand-side management project. Report for September 1992-July 1993

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kern, E.C.; Spiegel, R.J.

    1993-01-01

    The paper discusses an investigation of how photovoltaics (PV) may be used as both a pollution-mitigating energy replacement for fossil fuels and a demand-side management (DSM) option to reduce peak electrical demands of commercial and residential buildings. Eleven electric utilities are partners in this first nationwide demonstration of PV DSM. The approach is to install and monitor standardized PV systems in diverse geographic areas with varying solar energy resource and electric power demand, production, and cost conditions. The systems are being monitored for a year to record direct and diffuse irradiance, ambient air temperature, PV power generation, and building loads. Utilities are providing the electric system operations data needed to determine the pollution mitigation and peak demand reduction that can result from the PV electrical power generation

  11. The Potential for Energy Storage to Provide Peaking Capacity in California under Increased Penetration of Solar Photovoltaics: Report Summary

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Denholm, Paul L [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Margolis, Robert M [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2018-03-12

    Opportunities to provide peaking capacity with low-cost energy storage are emerging. But adding storage changes the ability of subsequent storage additions to meet peak demand. Increasing photovoltaic (PV) deployment also affects storage's ability to provide peak capacity. This study examines storage's potential to replace conventional peak capacity in California.

  12. SUPERVISORY CONTROL FOR PEAK REDUCTION IN COMMERCIAL BUILDINGS WHILE MAINTAINING COMFORT

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nutaro, James J [ORNL; Olama, Mohammed M [ORNL; Kuruganti, Teja [ORNL

    2016-01-01

    This paper describes a supervisory control strategy for limiting peak power demand by small and medium commercial buildings while still meeting the business needs of the occupants. This control strategy has two features that make it relevant to new and existing buildings. First, it is designed to operate with building equipment, such as air conditioning and refrigeration systems, as they are presently installed in most small and medium commercial buildings. Because of this, the supervisory control could be realized as a software-only retrofit to existing building management systems. Second, the proposed control acts as a supervisory management layer over existing control systems, rather than replacing them outright. The primary idea of this approach is that the controls for individual building equipment request energy resources for a control action and the supervisory control examines the requests and decides which control actions to allow while satisfying a limit on peak power demand.

  13. Findings from Seven Years of Field Performance Data for Automated Demand Response in Commercial Buildings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kiliccote, Sila; Piette, Mary Ann; Mathieu, Johanna; Parrish, Kristen

    2010-05-14

    California is a leader in automating demand response (DR) to promote low-cost, consistent, and predictable electric grid management tools. Over 250 commercial and industrial facilities in California participate in fully-automated programs providing over 60 MW of peak DR savings. This paper presents a summary of Open Automated DR (OpenADR) implementation by each of the investor-owned utilities in California. It provides a summary of participation, DR strategies and incentives. Commercial buildings can reduce peak demand from 5 to 15percent with an average of 13percent. Industrial facilities shed much higher loads. For buildings with multi-year savings we evaluate their load variability and shed variability. We provide a summary of control strategies deployed, along with costs to install automation. We report on how the electric DR control strategies perform over many years of events. We benchmark the peak demand of this sample of buildings against their past baselines to understand the differences in building performance over the years. This is done with peak demand intensities and load factors. The paper also describes the importance of these data in helping to understand possible techniques to reach net zero energy using peak day dynamic control capabilities in commercial buildings. We present an example in which the electric load shape changed as a result of a lighting retrofit.

  14. Monthly Electrical Energy Overview October 2016

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2016-11-01

    This publication presents the electricity characteristics and noteworthy developments in France every month: consumption, generation, renewable energies, cross-border trades and transmission system developments, along with feedback on the highlights affecting this data. This issue presents the key figures for October 2016. French gross electricity demand fell by 1.9%. The monthly balance of cross-border exchanges remain in favour of exports but dropped to its historically lowest point since February 2012. Corrected for climate factors, overall demand remained stable compared with October 2015. The fall in nuclear and hydraulic generation was offset by thermal fossil fuel generation that reached, with 5 TWh, its highest level since February 2015. Renewable generation excluding hydraulic increased in October, after the sharp fall of the previous month. Over the whole of the month, French exchanges remained in favour of exports although they fell by 89% compared to October 2015. 20 new installations went into service in October

  15. Electrolytic hydrogen production at off-peak consumption and his utilization as energy vector at peak consumption through use of fuel cells; Producao de hidrogenio eletrolitico nos horarios fora de ponta e sua utilizacao como vetor energetico nos horarios de ponta atraves do uso de celulas a combustivel

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gambetta, Francielle [Universidade Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP), SP (Brazil). Faculdade de Engenharia Mecanica. Dept. de Energia]. E-mail: fgambetta@fem.unicamp.br; Silva, Ennio Peres da [Universidade Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP), SP (Brazil). Inst. de Fisica. Lab. de Hidrogenio

    2008-07-01

    Due the fact that consumers have different demand, depending on the pace of economic activities and their daily habits of consumption, there is a different electrical demand throughout the day. Demand, in general, is minimal during the morning and it grows with the move for hours to reach peak consumption between 18:00 and 22:00, then turning to fall. It is old the idea of storing electricity produced in off-peak for its consumption in peak hours. To store large amounts of electrical power is required its conversion into some other form of energy, since it is impossible to store electrical energy as such in large quantities. One way of storing electricity is in the form of hydrogen produced by electrolysis of water which then can be stored, purified and converted into electricity through fuel cells. When there is an increase in demand for electricity, there is a need to expand the supply of energy, which means investments in generation, transmission and distribution. This work was performed a preliminary analysis of the production of electrolytic hydrogen in hours of low demand and its use in the generation of electricity in peak hours, making use of the fuel cells, so that to a certain limit value of increased electricity demand, there is no need for expansion of supply of Foz do Iguacu/PR. Moreover, at this work, the ability to harness the heat generated in fuel cells for heating water in homes was considered. (author)

  16. Load Reduction, Demand Response and Energy Efficient Technologies and Strategies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boyd, Paul A.; Parker, Graham B.; Hatley, Darrel D.

    2008-11-19

    The Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) was tasked by the DOE Office of Electricity (OE) to recommend load reduction and grid integration strategies, and identify additional demand response (energy efficiency/conservation opportunities) and strategies at the Forest City Housing (FCH) redevelopment at Pearl Harbor and the Marine Corps Base Hawaii (MCBH) at Kaneohe Bay. The goal was to provide FCH staff a path forward to manage their electricity load and thus reduce costs at these FCH family housing developments. The initial focus of the work was at the MCBH given the MCBH has a demand-ratchet tariff, relatively high demand (~18 MW) and a commensurate high blended electricity rate (26 cents/kWh). The peak demand for MCBH occurs in July-August. And, on average, family housing at MCBH contributes ~36% to the MCBH total energy consumption. Thus, a significant load reduction in family housing can have a considerable impact on the overall site load. Based on a site visit to the MCBH and meetings with MCBH installation, FCH, and Hawaiian Electric Company (HECO) staff, recommended actions (including a "smart grid" recommendation) that can be undertaken by FCH to manage and reduce peak-demand in family housing are made. Recommendations are also made to reduce overall energy consumption, and thus reduce demand in FCH family housing.

  17. Decentralized planning of energy demand for the management of robustness and discomfort

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pournaras, E.; Vasirani, M.; Kooij, R.E.; Aberer, K.

    2014-01-01

    The robustness of smart grids is challenged by unpredictable power peaks or temporal demand oscillations that can cause blackouts and increase supply costs. Planning of demand can mitigate these effects and increase robustness. However, the impact on consumers in regards to the discomfort they

  18. Do psychological job demands, decision control and social support predictreturn to work three months after a return-to-work (RTW) programme? The rapid-RTW cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haveraaen, Lise A; Skarpaas, Lisebet S; Berg, John E; Aas, Randi W

    2015-01-01

    Long-term sickness absence is a considerable health and economic problem in the industrialised world. Factors that might predict return to work (RTW) are therefore of interest. To examine the impact of psychosocial work characteristics on RTW three months after the end of a RTW programme. A cohort study of 251 sick-listed employees from 40 different treatment and rehabilitation services in Norway recruited from February to December 2012. The Job Content Questionnaire was used to gather information on the psychosocial work conditions. Full or partial RTW was measured three months after the end of the RTW programme, using data from the national sickness absence register. Logistic regression analyses were performed to investigate the association between the psychosocial work characteristics and RTW. Having low psychological job demands (OR = 0.4, 95% CI: 0.2-0.9), high co-worker- (OR = 3.4, 95% CI: 1.5-5.8), and supervisor support (OR = 3.4, 95% CI: 1.6-7.3), and being in a low-strain job (low job demands and high control) (OR = 4.6, 95% CI: 1.1-18.6) were predictive of being in work three months after the end of the RTW programme, after adjusting for several potential prognostic factors. Interventions aimed at returning people to work might benefit from putting more emphasise on psychosocial work characteristics in the future.

  19. Monthly Electrical Energy Overview June 2017

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2017-07-01

    This publication presents the electricity characteristics and noteworthy developments in France every month: consumption, generation, renewable energies, cross-border trades and transmission system developments, along with feedback on the highlights affecting this data. This issue presents the key figures for June 2017. Average temperatures in June increased by +2.7 deg. compared to June 2016. Demand in June increased by +1.76% compared to June 2016. Demand in June increased by 1.76% compared to June 2016, due in particular to the heat wave that occurred between 19 and 22. Hydraulic generation was again penalized by the lack of rainfall with a fall of 28.6% compared to June 2016. Solar generation was up by 26.7%, driven by the high amount of sunlight in the month. The heat wave had a strong impact on demand in the regions most affected by the high temperatures: Champagne-Ardenne, Pays de la Loire, Midi-Pyrenees. Market prices increased in the south of Europe. France imported more than it exported via Switzerland. Overall, French exchanges remained in favour of exports in the month. 14 new installations went into service in June

  20. Predicting residential energy and water demand using publicly available data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoşgör, Enes; Fischbeck, Paul S.

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • We built regression models using publicly available data as independent variables. • These models were used to predict monthly utility usage. • Such models can empower demand-side management program design, implementation and evaluation. • As well as planning for changes in energy and water demand. - Abstract: The overarching objective behind this work is to merge publicly available data with utility consumption histories and extract statistically significant insight on utility usage for a group of houses (n = 7022) in Gainesville, USA. This study investigates the statistical descriptive power of publicly available information for modeling utility usage. We first examine the deviations that arise from monthly utility usage reading dates as reading dates tend to shift and reading periods tend to vary across different months. Then we run regression models for individual months which in turn we compare to a yearly regression model which accounts for months as a dummy variable to understand whether a monthly model or a yearly model has a larger statistical power. It is shown that publicly available data can be used to model residential utility usage in the absence of highly private utility data. The obtained results are helpful for utilities for two reasons: (1) using the models to predict the monthly changes in demand; and (2) predicting utility usage can be translated into energy-use intensity as a first-cut metric for energy efficiency targeting in their service territory to meet their state demand reduction targets

  1. Home Network Technologies and Automating Demand Response

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McParland, Charles

    2009-12-01

    Over the past several years, interest in large-scale control of peak energy demand and total consumption has increased. While motivated by a number of factors, this interest has primarily been spurred on the demand side by the increasing cost of energy and, on the supply side by the limited ability of utilities to build sufficient electricity generation capacity to meet unrestrained future demand. To address peak electricity use Demand Response (DR) systems are being proposed to motivate reductions in electricity use through the use of price incentives. DR systems are also be design to shift or curtail energy demand at critical times when the generation, transmission, and distribution systems (i.e. the 'grid') are threatened with instabilities. To be effectively deployed on a large-scale, these proposed DR systems need to be automated. Automation will require robust and efficient data communications infrastructures across geographically dispersed markets. The present availability of widespread Internet connectivity and inexpensive, reliable computing hardware combined with the growing confidence in the capabilities of distributed, application-level communications protocols suggests that now is the time for designing and deploying practical systems. Centralized computer systems that are capable of providing continuous signals to automate customers reduction of power demand, are known as Demand Response Automation Servers (DRAS). The deployment of prototype DRAS systems has already begun - with most initial deployments targeting large commercial and industrial (C & I) customers. An examination of the current overall energy consumption by economic sector shows that the C & I market is responsible for roughly half of all energy consumption in the US. On a per customer basis, large C & I customers clearly have the most to offer - and to gain - by participating in DR programs to reduce peak demand. And, by concentrating on a small number of relatively

  2. Technical Potential for Peak Load Management Programs in New Jersey

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kirby, B.J.

    2002-12-13

    Restructuring is attempting to bring the economic efficiency of competitive markets to the electric power industry. To at least some extent it is succeeding. New generation is being built in most areas of the country reversing the decades-long trend of declining reserve margins. Competition among generators is typically robust, holding down wholesale energy prices. Generators have shown that they are very responsive to price signals in both the short and long term. But a market that is responsive only on the supply side is only half a market. Demand response (elasticity) is necessary to gain the full economic advantages that restructuring can offer. Electricity is a form of energy that is difficult to store economically in large quantities. However, loads often have some ability to (1) conveniently store thermal energy and (2) defer electricity consumption. These inherent storage and control capabilities can be exploited to help reduce peak electric system consumption. In some cases they can also be used to provide system reliability reserves. Fortunately too, technology is helping. Advances in communications and control technologies are making it possible for loads ranging from residential through commercial and industrial to respond to economic signals. When we buy bananas, we don't simply take a dozen and wait a month to find out what the price was. We always ask about the price before we decide how many bananas we want. Technology is beginning to allow at least some customers to think about their electricity consumption the same way they think about most of their other purchases. And power system operators and regulators are beginning to understand that customers need to remain in control of their own destinies. Many customers (residential through industrial) are willing to respond to price signals. Most customers are not able to commit to specific responses months or years in advance. Electricity is a fluid market commodity with a volatile value to both

  3. An analysis of China's CO2 emission peaking target and pathways

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jian-Kun He

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available China has set the goal for its CO2 emissions to peak around 2030, which is not only a strategic decision coordinating domestic sustainable development and global climate change mitigation but also an overarching target and a key point of action for China's resource conservation, environmental protection, shift in economic development patterns, and CO2 emission reduction to avoid climate change. The development stage where China maps out the CO2 emission peak target is earlier than that of the developed countries. It is a necessity that the non-fossil energy supplies be able to meet all the increased energy demand for achieving CO2 emission peaking. Given that China's potential GDP annual increasing rate will be more than 4%, and China's total energy demand will continue to increase by approximately 1.0%–1.5% annually around 2030, new and renewable energies will need to increase by 6%–8% annually to meet the desired CO2 emission peak. The share of new and renewable energies in China's total primary energy supply will be approximately 20% by 2030. At that time, the energy consumption elasticity will decrease to around 0.3, and the annual decrease in the rate of CO2 intensity will also be higher than 4% to ensure the sustained growth of GDP. To achieve the CO2 emission peaking target and substantially promote the low-carbon development transformation, China needs to actively promote an energy production and consumption revolution, the innovation of advanced energy technologies, the reform of the energy regulatory system and pricing mechanism, and especially the construction of a national carbon emission cap and trade system.

  4. Distributed Demand Side Management with Battery Storage for Smart Home Energy Scheduling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Omowunmi Mary Longe

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The role of Demand Side Management (DSM with Distributed Energy Storage (DES has been gaining attention in recent studies due to the impact of the latter on energy management in the smart grid. In this work, an Energy Scheduling and Distributed Storage (ESDS algorithm is proposed to be installed into the smart meters of Time-of-Use (TOU pricing consumers possessing in-home energy storage devices. Source of energy supply to the smart home appliances was optimized between the utility grid and the DES device depending on energy tariff and consumer demand satisfaction information. This is to minimize consumer energy expenditure and maximize demand satisfaction simultaneously. The ESDS algorithm was found to offer consumer-friendly and utility-friendly enhancements to the DSM program such as energy, financial, and investment savings, reduced/eliminated consumer dissatisfaction even at peak periods, Peak-to-Average-Ratio (PAR demand reduction, grid energy sustainability, socio-economic benefits, and other associated benefits such as environmental-friendliness.

  5. Opportunities for Automated Demand Response in California Agricultural Irrigation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Olsen, Daniel [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Aghajanzadeh, Arian [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); McKane, Aimee [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2015-08-01

    Pumping water for agricultural irrigation represents a significant share of California’s annual electricity use and peak demand. It also represents a large source of potential flexibility, as farms possess a form of storage in their wetted soil. By carefully modifying their irrigation schedules, growers can participate in demand response without adverse effects on their crops. This report describes the potential for participation in demand response and automated demand response by agricultural irrigators in California, as well as barriers to widespread participation. The report first describes the magnitude, timing, location, purpose, and manner of energy use in California. Typical on-­farm controls are discussed, as well as common impediments to participation in demand response and automated demand response programs. Case studies of demand response programs in California and across the country are reviewed, and their results along with overall California demand estimates are used to estimate statewide demand response potential. Finally, recommendations are made for future research that can enhance the understanding of demand response potential in this industry.

  6. Battery Peak Power Shaving Strategy to Prolong Battery Life for Electric Buses

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pham, T.H.; Rosea, B.; Wilkins, S.

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents a battery peak power shaving strategy for battery electric buses. The developed strategy restricts the battery charge/discharge power when the propulsion power demand is high to avoid high deterioration of the battery capacity during operation. Without reducing the propulsion

  7. Impact of Demand Side Management in Active Distribution Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ponnaganti, Pavani; Bak-Jensen, Birgitte; Pillai, Jayakrishnan Radhakrishna

    2017-01-01

    Demand Side Management (DSM) is an efficient flexible program which helps distribution network operators to meet the future critical peak demand. It is executed in cases of not only technical issues like voltage sag or swell, transformer burdening, cable congestions, but also to increase the degree...... of visibility in the electricity markets. The aim of this paper is to find the optimal flexible demands that can be shifted to another time in order to operate the active distribution system within secure operating limits. A simple mechanism is proposed for finding the flexibility of the loads where electric...

  8. Average monthly and annual climate maps for Bolivia

    KAUST Repository

    Vicente-Serrano, Sergio M.

    2015-02-24

    This study presents monthly and annual climate maps for relevant hydroclimatic variables in Bolivia. We used the most complete network of precipitation and temperature stations available in Bolivia, which passed a careful quality control and temporal homogenization procedure. Monthly average maps at the spatial resolution of 1 km were modeled by means of a regression-based approach using topographic and geographic variables as predictors. The monthly average maximum and minimum temperatures, precipitation and potential exoatmospheric solar radiation under clear sky conditions are used to estimate the monthly average atmospheric evaporative demand by means of the Hargreaves model. Finally, the average water balance is estimated on a monthly and annual scale for each 1 km cell by means of the difference between precipitation and atmospheric evaporative demand. The digital layers used to create the maps are available in the digital repository of the Spanish National Research Council.

  9. The end of Peak Oil? Why this topic is still relevant despite recent denials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chapman, Ian

    2014-01-01

    Up until recently Peak Oil was a major discussion point crossing from academic research into mainstream journalism, yet it now attracts far less interest. This paper evaluates the reasons for this and on-going relevance of Peak Oil, considering variations in predictive dates for the phenomenon supported by technological, economic and political issues. Using data from agencies, the validity of each position is assessed looking at reserves, industrial developments and alternative fuels. The complicating issue of demand is also considered. The conclusions are that, supported by commercial interests, an unsubstantiated belief in market and technical solutions, and a narrow paradigmatic focus, critics of Peak Oil theory have used unreliable reserve data, optimistic assumptions about utilisation of unconventional supplies and unrealistic predictions for alternative energy production to discredit the evidence that the resource-limited peak in the world's production of conventional oil has arrived, diverting discussion from what should be a serious topic for energy policy: how we respond to decreasing supplies of one of our most important energy sources. - Highlights: • Key advocates/opponents of Peak Oil reveal their biases. • Reserve calculation methods are considered, showing flaws. • Non-conventional oils’ viability is critiqued and found wanting. • Alternative fuels are found to be unsuitable substitutes for oil. • Demand increases add to the potential for fuel shortages

  10. Ice Storage Air-Conditioning System Simulation with Dynamic Electricity Pricing: A Demand Response Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chi-Chun Lo

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an optimal dispatch model of an ice storage air-conditioning system for participants to quickly and accurately perform energy saving and demand response, and to avoid the over contact with electricity price peak. The schedule planning for an ice storage air-conditioning system of demand response is mainly to transfer energy consumption from the peak load to the partial-peak or off-peak load. Least Squares Regression (LSR is used to obtain the polynomial function for the cooling capacity and the cost of power consumption with a real ice storage air-conditioning system. Based on the dynamic electricity pricing, the requirements of cooling loads, and all technical constraints, the dispatch model of the ice-storage air-conditioning system is formulated to minimize the operation cost. The Improved Ripple Bee Swarm Optimization (IRBSO algorithm is proposed to solve the dispatch model of the ice storage air-conditioning system in a daily schedule on summer. Simulation results indicate that reasonable solutions provide a practical and flexible framework allowing the demand response of ice storage air-conditioning systems to demonstrate the optimization of its energy savings and operational efficiency and offering greater energy efficiency.

  11. The World Demand for Catfish Pangasius

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nguyen, Thong Tien; Roth, Eva; Nielsen, Max

    2014-01-01

    flexibilities are less than 1. While there are many demand studies for other whitefish species and salmon, which are strongly competed by catfish in many markets, there is a lack of demand study for Pangasius catfish. Therefore, this study will supplement seafood demand literature and be meaningful for seafood......In this paper we present a world demand system for Pangasius catfish products. We use solely exporting data from Vietnam for estimating a non-linear Almost Ideal Demand System because Vietnam accounts for more than 90% catfish export value of the world and the products exported are mostly...... in filleted form. The demand system includes seven equations representing for most important markets that are ASEAN & EAST ASIA, NORTH AMERICA, OCEANIA, RUSIAN & EASTERN EU, SOUTH & CENTRAL AMERICA, WESTERN EU, and ROW (rest of the world) markets. The monthly data are updating from January 2007 to March 2014...

  12. Experimental determination of demand side management potential of wet appliances in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Staats, M. R.; de Boer-Meulman, P. D M; van Sark, W. G J H M

    2017-01-01

    The potential of demand side management (DSM) of wet appliances (washing machine, dishwasher and tumble dryer) in households with photovoltaic (PV) systems is studied experimentally focusing on evening peak demand reduction and increase in PV self-consumption. In a sample of 100 Dutch households the

  13. Monthly Electrical Energy Overview May 2017

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2017-06-01

    This publication presents the electricity characteristics and noteworthy developments in France every month: consumption, generation, renewable energies, cross-border trades and transmission system developments, along with feedback on the highlights affecting this data. This issue presents the key figures for May 2017. Demand increased slightly versus May 2016 with higher average temperatures (+1.6 deg.) over this period. Demand rose by 0.9% compared with May 2016. Hydraulic generation was again impacted by the lack of rain with a fall of 12,6% compared with May 2016. Solar generation increased by 20%, driven by the growth of the park and the high amounts of sunshine observed over the month. It is in Auvergne-Rhone-Alpes, Grand-Est, Hauts-de-France, Ile-de-France and Provence-Alpes-Cote d'Azur (PACA) that annual final demand from heavy industry was at its highest for 2016. In these regions, except for Ile-de-France, the chemicals, para-chemicals, metallurgy and steel sectors consumed the most energy. Market prices were relatively stable in most European countries. France had an export balance with all countries outside its borders. With 1.85 TWh, the export balance for monthly trades with Spain reached a new record. 7 new installations went into service in May

  14. Optimization of Occupancy Based Demand Controlled Ventilation in Residences

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mortensen, Dorthe Kragsig; Walker, Iain; Sherman, Max

    2011-01-01

    Although it has been used for many years in commercial buildings, the application of demand controlled ventilation in residences is limited. In this study we used occupant exposure to pollutants integrated over time (referred to as "dose") as the metric to evaluate the effectiveness and air quality...... implications of demand controlled ventilation in residences. We looked at air quality for two situations. The first is that typically used in ventilation standards: the exposure over a long term. The second is to look at peak exposures that are associated with time variations in ventilation rates and pollutant...... when occupied. We used analytical solutions to the continuity equation to determine the ventilation effectiveness and the long-term chronic dose and peak acute exposure for a representative range of occupancy periods, pollutant generation rates and airflow rates. The results of the study showed that we...

  15. Association between Infancy BMI Peak and Body Composition and Blood Pressure at Age 5–6 Years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hof, Michel H. P.; Vrijkotte, Tanja G. M.; de Hoog, Marieke L. A.; van Eijsden, Manon; Zwinderman, Aeilko H.

    2013-01-01

    Introduction The development of overweight is often measured with the body mass index (BMI). During childhood the BMI curve has two characteristic points: the adiposity rebound at 6 years and the BMI peak at 9 months of age. In this study, the associations between the BMI peak and body composition measures and blood pressure at age 5–6 years were investigated. Methods Measurements from the Amsterdam Born Children and their Development (ABCD) study were available for this study. Blood pressure (systolic and diastolic) and body composition measures (BMI, waist-to-height ratio, fat percentage) were gathered during a health check at about 6 years of age (n = 2822). All children had multiple BMI measurements between the 0–4 years of age. For boys and girls separately, child-specific BMI peaks were extracted from mixed effect models. Associations between the estimated BMI peak and the health check measurements were analysed with linear models. In addition, we investigated the potential use of the BMI at 9 months as a surrogate measure for the magnitude of the BMI peak. Results After correction for the confounding effect of fetal growth, both timing and magnitude of the BMI peak were significantly and positively associated (pBMI peak showed no direct association with blood pressure at the age 5–6 year, but was mediated by the current BMI. The correlation between the magnitude of the BMI peak and BMI at 9 months was approximately 0.93 and similar associations with the measures at 5–6 years were found. Conclusion The magnitude of the BMI peak was associated with body composition measures at 5–6 years of age. Moreover, the BMI at 9 months could be used as surrogate measure for the magnitude of the BMI peak. PMID:24324605

  16. Monthly Electrical Energy Overview November 2016

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2016-12-01

    This publication presents the electricity characteristics and noteworthy developments in France every month: consumption, generation, renewable energies, cross-border trades and transmission system developments, along with feedback on the highlights affecting this data. This issue presents the key figures for November 2016. The cool weather in November caused an increase in demand (+8% compared with November 2015). The monthly French exports balance dropped to its historically lowest point since February 2012. The trend in adjusted electricity demand was slightly down. The nuclear generation deficit was offset by the rise in thermal fossil fuel generation that, at 6.7 TWh, reached its highest level since February 2012. The average wind load factor reached almost 30%, the highest level since March 2016. Over the whole of the month, French exchanges remained slightly in favour of exports as they fell by 92% compared to November 2015. 33 new installations went into service in November 2016

  17. Climate change and electricity demand in Brazil: A stochastic approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Trotter, Ian M.; Bolkesjø, Torjus Folsland; Féres, José Gustavo; Hollanda, Lavinia

    2016-01-01

    We present a framework for incorporating weather uncertainty into electricity demand forecasting when weather patterns cannot be assumed to be stable, such as in climate change scenarios. This is done by first calibrating an econometric model for electricity demand on historical data, and subsequently applying the model to a large number of simulated weather paths, together with projections for the remaining determinants. Simulated weather paths are generated based on output from a global circulation model, using a method that preserves the trend and annual seasonality of the first and second moments, as well as the spatial and serial correlations. The application of the framework is demonstrated by creating long-term, probabilistic electricity demand forecasts for Brazil for the period 2016–2100 that incorporates weather uncertainty for three climate change scenarios. All three scenarios indicate steady growth in annual average electricity demand until reaching a peak of approximately 1071–1200 TWh in 2060, then subsequently a decline, largely reflecting the trajectory of the population projections. The weather uncertainty in all scenarios is significant, with up to 400 TWh separating the 10th and the 90th percentiles, or approximately ±17% relative to the mean. - Highlights: • Large number of realistic weather paths generated based on output from a single GCM. • Simulated weather paths used to include weather uncertainty in demand forecasting. • We present a probabilistic electricity demand forecast for Brazil 2016–2100. • Annual Brazilian electricity demand will peak around 2060 at about 1071–1200 TWh. • Significant weather uncertainty, ∼400 TWh separating the 10th and 90th percentiles.

  18. Real-Time Demand Side Management Algorithm Using Stochastic Optimization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Moses Amoasi Acquah

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available A demand side management technique is deployed along with battery energy-storage systems (BESS to lower the electricity cost by mitigating the peak load of a building. Most of the existing methods rely on manual operation of the BESS, or even an elaborate building energy-management system resorting to a deterministic method that is susceptible to unforeseen growth in demand. In this study, we propose a real-time optimal operating strategy for BESS based on density demand forecast and stochastic optimization. This method takes into consideration uncertainties in demand when accounting for an optimal BESS schedule, making it robust compared to the deterministic case. The proposed method is verified and tested against existing algorithms. Data obtained from a real site in South Korea is used for verification and testing. The results show that the proposed method is effective, even for the cases where the forecasted demand deviates from the observed demand.

  19. A critical review of IEA's oil demand forecast for China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nel, Willem P.; Cooper, Christopher J.

    2008-01-01

    China has a rapidly growing economy with a rapidly increasing demand for oil. The International Energy Agency (IEA) investigated possible future oil demand scenarios for China in the 2006 World Energy Outlook. The debate on whether oil supplies will be constrained in the near future, because of limited new discoveries, raises the concern that the oil industry may not be able to produce sufficient oil to meet this demand. This paper examines the historical relationship between economic growth and oil consumption in a number of countries. Logistic curve characteristics are observed in the relationship between per capita economic activity and oil consumption. This research has determined that the minimum statistical (lower-bound) annual oil consumption for developed countries is 11 barrels per capita. Despite the increase reported in total energy efficiency, no developed country has been able to reduce oil consumption below this lower limit. Indeed, the IEA projections to 2030 for the OECD countries show no reduction in oil demand on a per capita basis. If this lower limit is applied to China, it is clear that the IEA projections for China are under-estimating the growth in demand for oil. This research has determined that this under-estimation could be as high as 10 million barrels per day by 2025. If proponents of Peak Oil such as Laherrere, Campbell and Deffeyes are correct about the predicted peak in oil production before 2020 then the implications of this reassessment of China's oil demand will have profound implications for mankind

  20. Including dynamic CO2 intensity with demand response

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stoll, Pia; Brandt, Nils; Nordström, Lars

    2014-01-01

    Hourly demand response tariffs with the intention of reducing or shifting loads during peak demand hours are being intensively discussed among policy-makers, researchers and executives of future electricity systems. Demand response rates have still low customer acceptance, apparently because the consumption habits requires stronger incentive to change than any proposed financial incentive. An hourly CO 2 intensity signal could give customers an extra environmental motivation to shift or reduce loads during peak hours, as it would enable co-optimisation of electricity consumption costs and carbon emissions reductions. In this study, we calculated the hourly dynamic CO 2 signal and applied the calculation to hourly electricity market data in Great Britain, Ontario and Sweden. This provided a novel understanding of the relationships between hourly electricity generation mix composition, electricity price and electricity mix CO 2 intensity. Load shifts from high-price hours resulted in carbon emission reductions for electricity generation mixes where price and CO 2 intensity were positively correlated. The reduction can be further improved if the shift is optimised using both price and CO 2 intensity. The analysis also indicated that an hourly CO 2 intensity signal can help avoid carbon emissions increases for mixes with a negative correlation between electricity price and CO 2 intensity. - Highlights: • We present a formula for calculating hybrid dynamic CO 2 intensity of electricity generation mixes. • We apply the dynamic CO 2 Intensity on hourly electricity market prices and generation units for Great Britain, Ontario and Sweden. • We calculate the spearman correlation between hourly electricity market price and dynamic CO 2 intensity for Great Britain, Ontario and Sweden. • We calculate carbon footprint of shifting 1 kWh load daily from on-peak hours to off-peak hours using the dynamic CO 2 intensity. • We conclude that using dynamic CO 2 intensity for

  1. Decreasing fuel cost weight in electric utility business. ; Urged peak measures and management constitution improvement. Denki jigyo no nenryohi weight wa gensho. ; Isogareru peak taisaku to keiei taishitsu kaizen

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1993-09-01

    The electric power industry has made stable and economic power supply possible by advancing diversification in power sources and shifting the petroleum supply sources to southern countries and China. The cost constitution of the electric utility business in the fiscal year 1992 was such that the ratio of fuel cost is 15.9% against the total cost amount of 13 trillion 399.3 billion yen. As opposed, the fuel cost percent in the fiscal 1980 was 37.7%. This means that the effect of the fuel cost on the total cost has become smaller even if the fuel cost varies as a result of external factors including fluctuation in foreign exchange rates. Peaks in the power demand have been recorded in day time in high summer when air conditioning demand increases, which have been growing year after year. Expenses to maintain facilities and functions to deal with this demand increase have been increasing. The owned capital ratio in the electric power business was 15.7% in the fiscal 1992, which is by far lower than the average of whole industry of 28%. Execution of measures against the power peaks and improvement of the management constitution are the problems posed on the electric power industry. 4 figs., 1 tab.

  2. Monthly Electrical Energy Overview April 2017

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2017-05-01

    This publication presents the electricity characteristics and noteworthy developments in France every month: consumption, generation, renewable energies, cross-border trades and transmission system developments, along with feedback on the highlights affecting this data. This issue presents the key figures for April 2017. Despite lower than normal temperatures (-0.8 deg. C), April remained milder than that of the previous year, resulting in a slight fall in demand. For the third month in a row, demand fell compared to the same month in the previous year (-6.2%). Hydraulic generation suffered from the dry weather in April with a fall of 35% compared to April 2016. The good amount of sunlight this month as well as the increase in the installed photovoltaic base allowed solar generation to jump by more than 36%. The rainfall deficit over the country affected hydraulic generation with falls of as much as -80% in the Centre-Val de Loire region. Variations in market prices were mixed depending on the countries. The balance of exports was in France's favour on all its borders, with a national export balance greater than 5 TWh. 9 new installations went into service in April

  3. Genetic and Dynamic Analyses of Murine Peak Bone Density

    Science.gov (United States)

    1999-10-01

    bone density in mice. Femurs from young adult B6, C3H, and CAST females at 4 months of age were measured by pQCT (XCT-960M, Norland Med Sys., Ft...progenitor strains - B6, C3H, and CAST - showed that adult skeletal peak BMD was established at 4 months. Therefore, F2 mice were necropsied at 4...calcium depletion causes hypocalcemia , which leads to secondary hyperparathyroidism, subsequently resulting in increased bone resorption. Conversely

  4. Demand-controlling marketing of electric utilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Raffee, H; Fritz, W

    1980-01-01

    In situations like the shortage of energy resources the particular autonomy of the users concerning energy demand raises more and more aggravating problems for the electric utilities (EU) and, last not least, for society (i.e. the peak-load problem, threatening bottlenecks in the supply situation). Thus the requirement for a demand-controlling marketing strategy of the EU with the help of which the individual demand should be influenced in the following manner is legitimate. The article discusses the targets, strategies, and instruments of marketing performed by the EU under the aspect of their efficiency concerning demand control. The discussion leads to e.g. the following results: that a marketing strategy for the sensible, responsible, and efficent use of energy, in the long-term, serves both the interests of the users and the interests of the EU; that such a marketing programme can have the required controlling effects especially with the help of strategies like market segmentation and cooperation. The discussion makes also clear that a demand-controlling marketing strategy of the EU can hardly be realized without a considerable change within the organization of the EU on one hand and, on the other, without expanding the marketing programme toward a marketing strategy of balance.

  5. Electric energy demand and supply prospects for California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, H. G. M.

    1978-01-01

    A recent history of electricity forecasting in California is given. Dealing with forecasts and regulatory uncertainty is discussed. Graphs are presented for: (1) Los Angeles Department of Water and Power and Pacific Gas and Electric present and projected reserve margins; (2) California electricity peak demand forecast; and (3) California electricity production.

  6. Impacts of demand response and renewable generation in electricity power market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Zhechong

    This thesis presents the objective of the research which is to analyze the impacts of uncertain wind power and demand response on power systems operation and power market clearing. First, in order to effectively utilize available wind generation, it is usually given the highest priority by assigning zero or negative energy bidding prices when clearing the day-ahead electric power market. However, when congestion occurs, negative wind bidding prices would aggravate locational marginal prices (LMPs) to be negative in certain locations. A load shifting model is explored to alleviate possible congestions and enhance the utilization of wind generation, by shifting proper amount of load from peak hours to off peaks. The problem is to determine proper amount of load to be shifted, for enhancing the utilization of wind generation, alleviating transmission congestions, and making LMPs to be non-negative values. The second piece of work considered the price-based demand response (DR) program which is a mechanism for electricity consumers to dynamically manage their energy consumption in response to time-varying electricity prices. It encourages consumers to reduce their energy consumption when electricity prices are high, and thereby reduce the peak electricity demand and alleviate the pressure to power systems. However, it brings additional dynamics and new challenges on the real-time supply and demand balance. Specifically, price-sensitive DR load levels are constantly changing in response to dynamic real-time electricity prices, which will impact the economic dispatch (ED) schedule and in turn affect electricity market clearing prices. This thesis adopts two methods for examining the impacts of different DR price elasticity characteristics on the stability performance: a closed-loop iterative simulation method and a non-iterative method based on the contraction mapping theorem. This thesis also analyzes the financial stability of DR load consumers, by incorporating

  7. Analysis of the same day of the week increases in peak electricity ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Modelling of the same day of the week increases in peak electricity demand improves the reliability of a power network if an accurate assessment of the level and frequency of future extreme load forecasts is carried out. Key words: Gibbs sampling, generalized single pareto, generalized pareto distribution, pareto quantile ...

  8. Reducing electricity consumption peaks with parametrised dynamic pricing strategies given maximal unit prices

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    N.F. Höning (Nicolas); J.A. La Poutré (Han); F. Lopes; Z. Vale; J. Sousa; H. Coelho

    2013-01-01

    htmlabstractDemand response is a crucial mechanism for flattening of peak loads. For its implementation, we not only require consumers who react to price changes, but also intelligent strategies to select prices. We propose a parametrised meta-strategy for dynamic pricing and identify suitable

  9. The impact of job crafting on job demands, job resources, and well-being.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tims, Maria; Bakker, Arnold B; Derks, Daantje

    2013-04-01

    This longitudinal study examined whether employees can impact their own well-being by crafting their job demands and resources. Based on the job demands-resources model, we hypothesized that employee job crafting would have an impact on work engagement, job satisfaction, and burnout through changes in job demands and job resources. Data was collected in a chemical plant at three time points with one month in between the measurement waves (N = 288). The results of structural equation modeling showed that employees who crafted their job resources in the first month of the study showed an increase in their structural and social resources over the course of the study (2 months). This increase in job resources was positively related to employee well-being (increased engagement and job satisfaction, and decreased burnout). Crafting job demands did not result in a change in job demands, but results revealed direct effects of crafting challenging demands on increases in well-being. We conclude that employee job crafting has a positive impact on well-being and that employees therefore should be offered opportunities to craft their own jobs.

  10. Electricity demand profile with high penetration of heat pumps in Nordic area

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Liu, Zhaoxi; Wu, Qiuwei; Nielsen, Arne Hejde

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents the heat pump (HP) demand profile with high HP penetration in the Nordic area in order to achieve the carbon neutrality power system. The calculation method in the European Standard EN14825 was used to estimate the HP electricity demand profile. The study results show...... there will be high power demand from HPs and the selection of supplemental heating for heat pumps has a big impact on the peak electrical power load of heating. The study in this paper gives an estimate of the scale of the electricity demand with high penetration of heat pumps in the Nordic area....

  11. Peak Operation of Cascaded Hydropower Plants Serving Multiple Provinces

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jianjian Shen

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available The bulk hydropower transmission via trans-provincial and trans-regional power networks in China provides great operational flexibility to dispatch power resources between multiple power grids. This is very beneficial to alleviate the tremendous peak load pressure of most provincial power grids. This study places the focus on peak operations of cascaded hydropower plants serving multiple provinces under a regional connected AC/DC network. The objective is to respond to peak loads of multiple provincial power grids simultaneously. A two-stage search method is developed for this problem. In the first stage, a load reconstruction strategy is proposed to combine multiple load curves of power grids into a total load curve. The purpose is to deal with different load features in load magnitudes, peaks and valleys. A mutative-scale optimization method is then used to determine the generation schedules of hydropower plants. In the second stage, an exterior point search method is established to allocate the generation among multiple receiving power grids. This method produces an initial solution using the load shedding algorithm, and further improves it by iteratively coordinating the generation among different power grids. The proposed method was implemented to the operations of cascaded hydropower plants on Xin-Fu River and another on Hongshui River. The optimization results in two cases satisfied the peak demands of receiving provincial power grids. Moreover, the maximum load difference between peak and valley decreased 12.67% and 11.32% in Shanghai Power Grid (SHPG and Zhejiang Power Grid (ZJPG, exceeding by 4.85% and 6.72% those of the current operational method, respectively. The advantage of the proposed method in alleviating peak-shaving pressure is demonstrated.

  12. 24-month fuel cycles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rosenstein, R.G.; Sipes, D.E.; Beall, R.H.; Donovan, E.J.

    1986-01-01

    Twenty-four month reload cycles can potentially lessen total power generation costs. While 24-month cores increase purchased fuel costs, the longer cycles reduce the number of refueling outages and thus enhance plant availability; men-rem exposure to site personnel and other costs associated with reload core design and licensing are also reduced. At dual unit sites an operational advantage can be realized by refueling each plant alternately on a 1-year offset basis. This results in a single outage per site per year which can be scheduled for off-peak periods or when replacement power costs are low

  13. Providing Reliability Services through Demand Response: A Prelimnary Evaluation of the Demand Response Capabilities of Alcoa Inc.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Starke, Michael R [ORNL; Kirby, Brendan J [ORNL; Kueck, John D [ORNL; Todd, Duane [Alcoa; Caulfield, Michael [Alcoa; Helms, Brian [Alcoa

    2009-02-01

    Demand response is the largest underutilized reliability resource in North America. Historic demand response programs have focused on reducing overall electricity consumption (increasing efficiency) and shaving peaks but have not typically been used for immediate reliability response. Many of these programs have been successful but demand response remains a limited resource. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) report, 'Assessment of Demand Response and Advanced Metering' (FERC 2006) found that only five percent of customers are on some form of demand response program. Collectively they represent an estimated 37,000 MW of response potential. These programs reduce overall energy consumption, lower green house gas emissions by allowing fossil fuel generators to operate at increased efficiency and reduce stress on the power system during periods of peak loading. As the country continues to restructure energy markets with sophisticated marginal cost models that attempt to minimize total energy costs, the ability of demand response to create meaningful shifts in the supply and demand equations is critical to creating a sustainable and balanced economic response to energy issues. Restructured energy market prices are set by the cost of the next incremental unit of energy, so that as additional generation is brought into the market, the cost for the entire market increases. The benefit of demand response is that it reduces overall demand and shifts the entire market to a lower pricing level. This can be very effective in mitigating price volatility or scarcity pricing as the power system responds to changing demand schedules, loss of large generators, or loss of transmission. As a global producer of alumina, primary aluminum, and fabricated aluminum products, Alcoa Inc., has the capability to provide demand response services through its manufacturing facilities and uniquely through its aluminum smelting facilities. For a typical aluminum smelter

  14. Enrichment demand boosts SWU prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1993-01-01

    The enrichment market is picking up significantly on very brisk demand. US utilities, which normally purchase material nine months to a year ahead of time, are already hitting the market to fill their 1996 requirements. In June, two non-US utilities, one European entity and a US utility bought SWUs, the entity in an off-market deal. But that doesn't tell the whole story. Three other US utilities entered the market during the month. Meanwhile, we count 13 more utilities getting ready to hit the market for more than 4 million SWUs. Why the surge in demand? Utilities, uncertain of the role to be played by the new US Enrichment Corp. and seeking to take advantage of low interest rates, are implementing buy and hold strategies. As a result, the upper end of NUKEM's SWU price range inched up to $78. The lower end dipped to $67 based on the European deal

  15. Maximizing utilization of sport halls during peak hours

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Iversen, Evald Bundgård; Forsberg, Peter

    the number of participants 7.5 persons higher pr. activity compared to club activities. This implies that clubs during peak hours could include more participants. Another possibility to increase utilization is if the management of sport facilities forced sport clubs and other organisers to adapt...... their activities to a smaller amount of floor space, which would make it possible to have more than one activity on the floor at the same time. Hence, to achieve better utilization during prime time, further analysis and research could focus on how activities in sport halls can be adapted to include more......BACKGROUNDDuring peak hours (4.30pm-8pm) demand for timeslots in sport halls in Denmark are high and there are few timeslots available. Further, focus on how public resources are spent most efficient is increasing (Iversen, 2013). This makes it interesting to analyse how utilization could...

  16. An assessment of the potential contribution from waste-to-energy facilities to electricity demand in Saudi Arabia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ouda, Omar K.M.; Cekirge, Huseyin M.; Raza, Syed A.R.

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: • This research evaluates the potential contribution of WTE to Saudi power demand. • Two scenarios were developed: Mass Burn and Mass Burn with recycling to year 2032. • Mass Burn will generate 2073 Megawatts (MW) about 1.73% of 2032 peak power demand. • Mass Burn with recycling will generate 166 MW about 0.14% of 2032 peak power demand. - Abstract: The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) is the largest crude oil producer in the world and possesses the largest oil reserves. The crude oil revenue has resulted in a massive socio-economic development over the last four decades. This situation has resulted in rapid growth of the country’s electricity demand and municipal solid waste (MSW) generation. The KSA is proposing an impressive plan towards renewable energy utilization that includes waste-to-energy (WTE) facilities. This research assesses the potential contribution of WTE facilities to total Saudi peak power demand up to the year 2032 based on two scenarios: Mass Burn and Mass Burn with recycling for the entire country and for six major cities in the KSA. The analysis shows a potential to produce about 2073 Megawatts (MW) based on a Mass Burn scenario and about 166 MW based on Mass Burn with recycling scenario. These values amount to about 1.73% and 0.14% of the projected 2032 peak electricity demand of 120 Gigawatt. The forecasted results of each city from the two scenarios can be used to design future WTE facilities in the main cities of Saudi Arabia. Further investigations are recommended to evaluate the two scenarios based on financial, social, technical, and environmental criteria

  17. Electric demand and the antinuclear movement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Studness, C.M.

    1984-01-01

    The author feels that, with electric demand growth of 4.5 to 5% per year expected, it will be only a matter of time before stepping-up the stream of utility capacity additions becomes an important issue. If demand grows 4.5% per year instead of 2.8% as projected by NERC, demand will be 10% higher and peak reserve margins about 12 percentage points lower than envisioned by the NERC projections after five years. By 1988 or 1989, little or no excess capacity will remain, and the utilities will be faced with adding twice as much capacity annually as now planned to avoid service deterioration. As questions about the adequacy of current utility capacity plans and concerns about service quality move toward center stage, the antinuclear movement should find it increasingly difficult to garner the broad support it now enjoys. Capacity represented by any uncompleted nuclear plants will appear increasingly beneficial, and those who do not have strong antinuclear sentiments should become increasingly hesitant about lending support to the movement. Accordingly, electric demand growth in due course can be expected to drain marginal supporters from the antinuclear movement and thereby erode the movement's vitality

  18. In demand

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Coleman, B. [Bridgestone Ltd. (United Kingdom)

    2005-11-01

    The paper explains how good relationships can help alleviate potential tyre shortages. Demand for large dump truck tyres (largely for China) has increased by 50% within 12 months. Bridgestone's manufacturing plants are operating at maximum capacity. The company supplies tyres to all vehicles at Scottish Coal's opencast coal mines. Its Tyre Management System (TMS) supplied free of charge to customers helps maximise tyre life and minimise downtime from data on pressure, tread and general conditions fed into the hand-held TMS computer. 3 photos.

  19. Agent-based model for electricity consumption and storage to evaluate economic viability of tariff arbitrage for residential sector demand response

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zheng, Menglian; Meinrenken, Christoph J.; Lackner, Klaus S.

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Storage-based demand response (loadshifting) is underutilized in residential sector. • Economics (arbitrage savings versus equipment cost) are not well understood. • Stochastic demand models and real-life tariffs can illuminate economic viability. • A range of available storage options provide economically viable DR. • Daily/seasonal stochastic demand variations crucial to understanding optimum capacity. - Abstract: Demand response (DR) is one of many approaches to address temporal mismatches in demand and supply of grid electricity. More common in the commercial sector, DR usually refers to reducing consumption at certain hours or seasons, thus reducing peak demand from the grid. In the residential sector, where sophisticated appliance-level controls such as automatic dimming of lights or on-demand lowering of air conditioning are less common, building-based electricity storage to shift grid consumption from peak to off-peak times could provide DR without requiring consumers to operate their appliances on shifted or reduced schedules: Storage would be dispatched to appliances as needed while still shaving peaks on the grid. Technologically, storage and two-way-inverters are readily available to enable such residential DR. Economically, however, the situation is less clear. Specifically, are time-varying electricity tariffs available such that electricity cost reduction via arbitrage could offset manufacturing, financing, and installation costs of the required storage? To address this question we (i) devise an agent-based appliance-level stochastic model to simulate the electricity demand of an average U.S. household; (ii) loadshift the demand via simple dispatch strategies; and (iii) determine potential profits to the building owner, i.e. reduced electricity cost of the modified demand with realistic tariffs (Con Edison, NY) minus storage cost. We determine the economic viability for a range of traditional and advanced storage technologies

  20. Automated Demand Response Approaches to Household Energy Management in a Smart Grid Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adika, Christopher Otieno

    The advancement of renewable energy technologies and the deregulation of the electricity market have seen the emergence of Demand response (DR) programs. Demand response is a cost-effective load management strategy which enables the electricity suppliers to maintain the integrity of the power grid during high peak periods, when the customers' electrical load is high. DR programs are designed to influence electricity users to alter their normal consumption patterns by offering them financial incentives. A well designed incentive-based DR scheme that offer competitive electricity pricing structure can result in numerous benefits to all the players in the electricity market. Lower power consumption during peak periods will significantly enhance the robustness of constrained networks by reducing the level of power of generation and transmission infrastructure needed to provide electric service. Therefore, this will ease the pressure of building new power networks as we avoiding costly energy procurements thereby translating into huge financial savings for the power suppliers. Peak load reduction will also reduce the inconveniences suffered by end users as a result of brownouts or blackouts. Demand response will also drastically lower the price peaks associated with wholesale markets. This will in turn reduce the electricity costs and risks for all the players in the energy market. Additionally, DR is environmentally friendly since it enhances the flexibility of the power grid through accommodation of renewable energy resources. Despite its many benefits, DR has not been embraced by most electricity networks. This can be attributed to the fact that the existing programs do not provide enough incentives to the end users and, therefore, most electricity users are not willing to participate in them. To overcome these challenges, most utilities are coming up with innovative strategies that will be more attractive to their customers. Thus, this dissertation presents various

  1. Estimating Reduced Consumption for Dynamic Demand Response

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chelmis, Charalampos [Univ. of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA (United States); Aman, Saima [Univ. of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA (United States); Saeed, Muhammad Rizwan [Univ. of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA (United States); Frincu, Marc [Univ. of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA (United States); Prasanna, Viktor K. [Univ. of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA (United States)

    2015-01-30

    Growing demand is straining our existing electricity generation facilities and requires active participation of the utility and the consumers to achieve energy sustainability. One of the most effective and widely used ways to achieve this goal in the smart grid is demand response (DR), whereby consumers reduce their electricity consumption in response to a request sent from the utility whenever it anticipates a peak in demand. To successfully plan and implement demand response, the utility requires reliable estimate of reduced consumption during DR. This also helps in optimal selection of consumers and curtailment strategies during DR. While much work has been done on predicting normal consumption, reduced consumption prediction is an open problem that is under-studied. In this paper, we introduce and formalize the problem of reduced consumption prediction, and discuss the challenges associated with it. We also describe computational methods that use historical DR data as well as pre-DR conditions to make such predictions. Our experiments are conducted in the real-world setting of a university campus microgrid, and our preliminary results set the foundation for more detailed modeling.

  2. Efficient Power Scheduling in Smart Homes Using Hybrid Grey Wolf Differential Evolution Optimization Technique with Real Time and Critical Peak Pricing Schemes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muqaddas Naz

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available With the emergence of automated environments, energy demand by consumers is increasing rapidly. More than 80% of total electricity is being consumed in the residential sector. This brings a challenging task of maintaining the balance between demand and generation of electric power. In order to meet such challenges, a traditional grid is renovated by integrating two-way communication between the consumer and generation unit. To reduce electricity cost and peak load demand, demand side management (DSM is modeled as an optimization problem, and the solution is obtained by applying meta-heuristic techniques with different pricing schemes. In this paper, an optimization technique, the hybrid gray wolf differential evolution (HGWDE, is proposed by merging enhanced differential evolution (EDE and gray wolf optimization (GWO scheme using real-time pricing (RTP and critical peak pricing (CPP. Load shifting is performed from on-peak hours to off-peak hours depending on the electricity cost defined by the utility. However, there is a trade-off between user comfort and cost. To validate the performance of the proposed algorithm, simulations have been carried out in MATLAB. Results illustrate that using RTP, the peak to average ratio (PAR is reduced to 53.02%, 29.02% and 26.55%, while the electricity bill is reduced to 12.81%, 12.012% and 12.95%, respectively, for the 15-, 30- and 60-min operational time interval (OTI. On the other hand, the PAR and electricity bill are reduced to 47.27%, 22.91%, 22% and 13.04%, 12%, 11.11% using the CPP tariff.

  3. Control for large scale demand response of thermostatic loads

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Totu, Luminita Cristiana; Leth, John; Wisniewski, Rafal

    2013-01-01

    appliances with on/off operation. The objective is to reduce the consumption peak of a group of loads composed of both flexible and inflexible units. The power flexible units are the thermostat-based appliances. We discuss a centralized, model predictive approach and a distributed structure with a randomized......Demand response is an important Smart Grid concept that aims at facilitating the integration of volatile energy resources into the electricity grid. This paper considers a residential demand response scenario and specifically looks into the problem of managing a large number thermostatbased...

  4. Financial treatment of demand management expenditures at Ontario Hydro

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ariss, D.G.

    1990-01-01

    Ontario Hydro's demand side management (DSM) plan comprises reduction of load, load shifting, and peak shaving. It includes an accounting policy applied only to measures which reduce demand by the increase in the efficiency of electricity of utilization or by the shifting of load from peak periods to off-peak periods. In order to choose the pertinent periods for which the DSM expenditures should be recovered, the utility has considered three accounting options: expensing all DSM expenditures as incurred; deferring all DSM expenditures; or deferring only those DSM expenditures that meet specified criteria. Ontario Hydro has chosen the last option, since it is in conformity with generally accepted accounting principles. This option is based on the matching principle, under which costs and revenues that are linked to each other in a cause-and-effect relationship should be recognized in the same accounting period. It has also been judged advantageous to amortize the deferred expenses corresponding to each measure over appropriate periods. It has also been established that the amortization period should begin immediately after each measure has been put into operation. This accounting policy ensures that expenses relating to DSM are accounted in a pertinent and uniform manner. 6 refs

  5. Dispatchable Hydrogen Production at the Forecourt for Electricity Demand Shaping

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdulla Rahil

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Environmental issues and concerns about depletion of fossil fuels have driven rapid growth in the generation of renewable energy (RE and its use in electricity grids. Similarly, the need for an alternative to hydrocarbon fuels means that the number of fuel cell vehicles is also expected to increase. The ability of electricity networks to balance supply and demand is greatly affected by the variable, intermittent output of RE generators; however, this could be relieved using energy storage and demand-side response (DSR techniques. One option would be production of hydrogen by electrolysis powered from wind and solar sources. The use of tariff structures would provide an incentive to operate electrolysers as dispatchable loads. The aim of this paper is to compare the cost of hydrogen production by electrolysis at garage forecourts in Libya, for both dispatchable and continuous operation, without interruption of fuel supply to vehicles. The coastal city of Derna was chosen as a case study, with the renewable energy being produced via a wind turbine farm. Wind speed was analysed in order to determine a suitable turbine, then the capacity was calculated to estimate how many turbines would be needed to meet demand. Finally, the excess power was calculated, based on the discrepancy between supply and demand. The study looked at a hydrogen refueling station in both dispatchable and continuous operation, using an optimisation algorithm. The following three scenarios were considered to determine whether the cost of electrolytic hydrogen could be reduced by a lower off-peak electricity price. These scenarios are: Standard Continuous, in which the electrolyser operates continuously on a standard tariff of 12 p/kWh; Off-peak Only, in which the electrolyser operates only during off-peak periods at the lower price of 5 p/kWh; and 2-Tier Continuous, in which the electrolyser operates continuously on a low tariff at off-peak times and a high tariff at other

  6. Peak load arrangements : Assessment of Nordel guidelines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2009-07-01

    Two Nordic countries, Sweden and Finland, have legislation that empowers the TSO to acquire designated peak load resources to mitigate the risk for shortage situations during the winter. In Denmark, the system operator procures resources to maintain a satisfactory level of security of supply. In Norway the TSO has set up a Regulation Power Option Market (RKOM) to secure a satisfactory level of operational reserves at all times, also in winter with high load demand. Only the arrangements in Finland and Sweden fall under the heading of Peak Load Arrangements defined in Nordel Guidelines. NordREG has been invited by the Electricity Market Group (EMG) to evaluate Nordel's proposal for 'Guidelines for transitional Peak Load Arrangements'. The EMG has also financed a study made by EC Group to support NordREG in the evaluation of the proposal. The study has been taken into account in NordREG's evaluation. In parallel to the EMG task, the Swedish regulator, the Energy Markets Inspectorate, has been given the task by the Swedish government to investigate a long term solution of the peak load issue. The Swedish and Finnish TSOs have together with Nord Pool Spot worked on finding a harmonized solution for activation of the peak load reserves in the market. An agreement accepted by the relevant authorities was reached in early January 2009, and the arrangement has been implemented since 19th January 2009. NordREG views that the proposed Nordel guidelines have served as a starting point for the presently agreed procedure. However, NordREG does not see any need to further develop the Nordel guidelines for peak load arrangements. NordREG agrees with Nordel that the market should be designed to solve peak load problems through proper incentives to market players. NordREG presumes that the relevant authorities in each country will take decisions on the need for any peak load arrangement to ensure security of supply. NordREG proposes that such decisions should be

  7. Air-conditioning and antibiotics: Demand management insights from problematic health and household cooling practices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nicholls, Larissa; Strengers, Yolande

    2014-01-01

    Air-conditioners and antibiotics are two technologies that have both been traditionally framed around individual health and comfort needs, despite aspects of their use contributing to social health problems. The imprudent use of antibiotics is threatening the capacity of the healthcare system internationally. Similarly, in Australia the increasing reliance on air-conditioning to maintain thermal comfort is contributing to rising peak demand and electricity prices, and is placing an inequitable health and financial burden on vulnerable heat-stressed households. This paper analyses policy responses to these problems through the lens of social practice theory. In the health sector, campaigns are attempting to emphasise the social health implications of antibiotic use. In considering this approach in relation to the problem of air-conditioned cooling and how to change the ways in which people keep cool during peak times, our analysis draws on interviews with 80 Australian households. We find that the problem of peak electricity demand may be reduced through attention to the social health implications of air-conditioned cooling on very hot days. We conclude that social practice theory offers a fruitful analytical route for identifying new avenues for research and informing policy responses to emerging health and environmental problems. - Highlights: • Over-use of antibiotics and air-conditioning has social health implications. • Focusing on financial incentives limits the potential of demand management programs. • Explaining peak demand to households shifts the meanings of cooling practices. • Emphasising the social health implications of antibiotics and air-conditioning may resurrect alternative practices. • Analysing policy with social practice theory offers insights into policy approaches

  8. Electricity demand in France: what's at stake for the energy transition?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berghmans, Nicolas

    2017-02-01

    This study identifies five key issues linked to electricity consumption to be taken into consideration in the management of the French power system transition: articulating the building stock renovation strategy and electricity consumption; integrating demand for electricity stemming from the development of electric vehicles; addressing winter 'peak' demand with specific demand-side policies; establishing energy demand management economic models as a flexible solution for the power system; identifying the impact of the emergence of a power system that is decentralised, balanced locally and connected with other energy carriers on the nature of demand for power from the grid. In the context of weak economic and demographic growth, the recent stabilization of electricity demand in France can be attributed to 'structural' factors, i.e. the continued expansion of the tertiary sector in the economy and the acceleration in energy efficiency gains. This evolution was poorly anticipated by stakeholders in the sector, which contributed to an imbalance between electricity demand and supply in Europe. In the absence of a major disruption, planning for transition in the electrical system should be made assuming relatively stable demand. However, major transformations will change the nature of the requirements placed on the electricity system: the times at which energy is consumed, the ability to manage the demand side of the system, and the geographical location of electricity demand within the network. Five key challenges are identified to anticipate the development of electricity consumption patterns: the role of electricity in satisfying building sector heating requirements, the integration of electric vehicle charging, the evolution of the winter demand peak, the development of demand-side management, and the emergence of an electric system based on local-level balancing. Too often considered an exogenous factor, the development in electricity consumption is in fact central

  9. Can Evolution Supply What Ecology Demands?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kokko, Hanna; Chaturvedi, Anurag; Croll, Daniel; Fischer, Martin C; Guillaume, Frédéric; Karrenberg, Sophie; Kerr, Ben; Rolshausen, Gregor; Stapley, Jessica

    2017-03-01

    A simplistic view of the adaptive process pictures a hillside along which a population can climb: when ecological 'demands' change, evolution 'supplies' the variation needed for the population to climb to a new peak. Evolutionary ecologists point out that this simplistic view can be incomplete because the fitness landscape changes dynamically as the population evolves. Geneticists meanwhile have identified complexities relating to the nature of genetic variation and its architecture, and the importance of epigenetic variation is under debate. In this review, we highlight how complexity in both ecological 'demands' and the evolutionary 'supply' influences organisms' ability to climb fitness landscapes that themselves change dynamically as evolution proceeds, and encourage new synthetic effort across research disciplines towards ecologically realistic studies of adaptation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Infant BMI peak as a predictor of overweight and obesity at age 2 years in a Chinese community-based cohort

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Jie; Nwaru, Bright I; Hua, Jing; Li, Xiaohong; Wu, Zhuochun

    2017-01-01

    Objectives Infant body mass index (BMI) peak has proven to be a useful indicator for predicting childhood obesity risk in American and European populations. However, it has not been assessed in China. We characterised infant BMI trajectories in a Chinese longitudinal cohort and evaluated whether BMI peak can predict overweight and obesity at age 2 years. Methods Serial measurements (n=6–12) of weight and length were taken from healthy term infants (n=2073) in a birth cohort established in urban Shanghai. Measurements were used to estimate BMI growth curves from birth to 13.5 months using a polynomial regression model. BMI peak characteristics, including age (in months) and magnitude (BMI, in kg/m2) at peak and prepeak velocities (in kg/m2/month), were estimated. The relationship between infant BMI peak and childhood BMI at age 2 years was examined using binary logistic analysis. Results Mean age at peak BMI was 7.61 months, with a magnitude of 18.33 kg/m2. Boys (n=1022) had a higher average peak BMI (18.60 vs 18.07 kg/m2, pBMI and 1 month increase in peak time, the risk of overweight at age 2 years increased by 2.11 times (OR 3.11; 95% CI 2.64 to 3.66) and 35% (OR 1.35; 95% CI 1.21 to 1.50), respectively. Similarly, higher BMI magnitude (OR 2.69; 95% CI 2.00 to 3.61) and later timing of infant BMI peak (OR 1.35; 95% CI 1.08 to 1.68) were associated with an increased risk of childhood obesity at age 2 years. Conclusions We have shown that infant BMI peak is valuable for predicting early childhood overweight and obesity in urban Shanghai. Because this is the first Chinese community-based cohort study of this nature, future research is required to examine infant populations in other areas of China. PMID:28988164

  11. Global search demand for varicose vein information on the internet.

    Science.gov (United States)

    El-Sheikha, Joseph

    2015-09-01

    Changes in internet search trends can provide healthcare professionals detailed information on prevalence of disease and symptoms. Chronic venous disease, more commonly known as varicose veins, is a common symptomatic disease among the adult population. This study aims to measure the change in global search demand for varicose vein information using Google over the past 8 years. The Google Trends instrument was used to measure the change in demand for the use of the local name for varicose veins in several countries across the world between January 2006 and December 2012. The measurements were normalised onto a scale relative to the largest volume of search requests received during a designated time and geographical location. Comparison of national levels of private healthcare and healthcare spending per capita to search demand was also undertaken using Organisation for Economic Co-operation and development economic measurements. Global interest has increased significantly, with linear regression demonstrating a 3.72% year-on-year increase in demand over the 8-year time period (r(2 )= 0.385, p demand significantly increased in the northern hemisphere (p demand compared to cooler winter months (demand (r(2 )= 0.120 p = 0.306). Healthcare spending per capita did not relate to search demand (r(2 )= 0.450 p = 0.077). There is increasing demand for information about varicose veins on the internet, especially during the warmer months of the year. Online search demand does not appear to be related to healthcare spending. © The Author(s) 2014.

  12. Four methodologies to improve healthcare demand forecasting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Côté, M J; Tucker, S L

    2001-05-01

    Forecasting demand for health services is an important step in managerial decision making for all healthcare organizations. This task, which often is assumed by financial managers, first requires the compilation and examination of historical information. Although many quantitative forecasting methods exist, four common methods of forecasting are percent adjustment, 12-month moving average, trendline, and seasonalized forecast. These four methods are all based upon the organization's recent historical demand. Healthcare financial managers who want to project demand for healthcare services in their facility should understand the advantages and disadvantages of each method and then select the method that will best meet the organization's needs.

  13. Cognitive Demands Influence Lower Extremity Mechanics During a Drop Vertical Jump Task in Female Athletes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Almonroeder, Thomas Gus; Kernozek, Thomas; Cobb, Stephen; Slavens, Brooke; Wang, Jinsung; Huddleston, Wendy

    2018-05-01

    Study Design Cross-sectional study. Background The drop vertical jump task is commonly used to screen for anterior cruciate ligament injury risk; however, its predictive validity is limited. The limited predictive validity of the drop vertical jump task may be due to not imposing the cognitive demands that reflect sports participation. Objectives To investigate the influence of additional cognitive demands on lower extremity mechanics during execution of the drop vertical jump task. Methods Twenty uninjured women (age range, 18-25 years) were required to perform the standard drop vertical jump task, as well as drop vertical jumps that included additional cognitive demands. The additional cognitive demands were related to attending to an overhead goal (ball suspended overhead) and/or temporal constraints on movement selection (decision making). Three-dimensional ground reaction forces and lower extremity mechanics were compared between conditions. Results The inclusion of the overhead goal resulted in higher peak vertical ground reaction forces and lower peak knee flexion angles in comparison to the standard drop vertical jump task. In addition, participants demonstrated greater peak knee abduction angles when trials incorporated temporal constraints on decision making and/or required participants to attend to an overhead goal, in comparison to the standard drop vertical jump task. Conclusion Imposing additional cognitive demands during execution of the drop vertical jump task influenced lower extremity mechanics in a manner that suggested increased loading of the anterior cruciate ligament. Tasks utilized in anterior cruciate ligament injury risk screening may benefit from more closely reflecting the cognitive demands of the sports environment. J Orthop Sports Phys Ther 2018;48(5):381-387. Epub 10 Jan 2018. doi:10.2519/jospt.2018.7739.

  14. Optimal real time cost-benefit based demand response with intermittent resources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zareen, N.; Mustafa, M.W.; Sultana, U.; Nadia, R.; Khattak, M.A.

    2015-01-01

    Ever-increasing price of conventional energy resources and related environmental concern enforced to explore alternative energy sources. Inherent uncertainty of power generation and demand being strongly influenced by the electricity market has posed severe challenges for DRPs (Demand Response Programs). Definitely, the success of such uncertain energy systems under new market structures is critically decided by the advancement of innovative technical and financial tools. Recent exponential growth of DG (distributed generations) demanded both the grid reliability and financial cost–benefits analysis for deregulated electricity market stakeholders. Based on the SGT (signaling game theory), the paper presents a novel user-aware demand-management approach where the price are colligated with grid condition uncertainties to manage the peak residential loads. The degree of information disturbances are considered as a key factor for evaluating electricity bidding mechanisms in the presence of independent multi-generation resources and price-elastic demand. A correlation between the cost–benefit price and variable reliability of grid is established under uncertain generation and demand conditions. Impacts of the strategies on load shape, benefit of customers and the reduction of energy consumption are inspected and compared with Time-of-Used based DRPs. Simulation results show that the proposed DRP can significantly reduce or even eliminate peak-hour energy consumption, leading to a substantial raise of revenues with 18% increase in the load reduction and a considerable improvement in system reliability is evidenced. - Highlights: • Proposed an optimal real time cost-benefit based demand response model. • Used signaling game theory for the information disturbances in deregulated market. • Introduced a correlation between the cost–benefit price and variable grid reliability. • Derive robust bidding strategies for utility/customers successful participation.

  15. Peak Oil, Peak Coal and Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murray, J. W.

    2009-05-01

    Research on future climate change is driven by the family of scenarios developed for the IPCC assessment reports. These scenarios create projections of future energy demand using different story lines consisting of government policies, population projections, and economic models. None of these scenarios consider resources to be limiting. In many of these scenarios oil production is still increasing to 2100. Resource limitation (in a geological sense) is a real possibility that needs more serious consideration. The concept of 'Peak Oil' has been discussed since M. King Hubbert proposed in 1956 that US oil production would peak in 1970. His prediction was accurate. This concept is about production rate not reserves. For many oil producing countries (and all OPEC countries) reserves are closely guarded state secrets and appear to be overstated. Claims that the reserves are 'proven' cannot be independently verified. Hubbert's Linearization Model can be used to predict when half the ultimate oil will be produced and what the ultimate total cumulative production (Qt) will be. US oil production can be used as an example. This conceptual model shows that 90% of the ultimate US oil production (Qt = 225 billion barrels) will have occurred by 2011. This approach can then be used to suggest that total global production will be about 2200 billion barrels and that the half way point will be reached by about 2010. This amount is about 5 to 7 times less than assumed by the IPCC scenarios. The decline of Non-OPEC oil production appears to have started in 2004. Of the OPEC countries, only Saudi Arabia may have spare capacity, but even that is uncertain, because of lack of data transparency. The concept of 'Peak Coal' is more controversial, but even the US National Academy Report in 2007 concluded only a small fraction of previously estimated reserves in the US are actually minable reserves and that US reserves should be reassessed using modern methods. British coal production can be

  16. Peak MSC—Are We There Yet?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Timothy R. Olsen

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available Human mesenchymal stem cells (hMSCs are a critical raw material for many regenerative medicine products, including cell-based therapies, engineered tissues, or combination products, and are on the brink of radically changing how the world of medicine operates. Their unique characteristics, potential to treat many indications, and established safety profile in more than 800 clinical trials have contributed to their current consumption and will only fuel future demand. Given the large target patient populations with typical dose sizes of 10's to 100's of millions of cells per patient, and engineered tissues being constructed with 100's of millions to billions of cells, an unprecedented demand has been created for hMSCs. The fulfillment of this demand faces an uphill challenge in the limited availability of large quantities of pharmaceutical grade hMSCs for the industry—fueling the need for parallel rapid advancements in the biomanufacturing of this living critical raw material. Simply put, hMSCs are no different than technologies like transistors, as they are a highly technical and modular product that requires stringent control over manufacturing that can allow for high quality and consistent performance. As hMSC manufacturing processes are optimized, it predicts a future time of abundance for hMSCs, where scientists and researchers around the world will have access to a consistent and readily available supply of high quality, standardized, and economical pharmaceutical grade product to buy off the shelf for their applications and drive product development—this is “Peak MSC.”

  17. [A peak recognition algorithm designed for chromatographic peaks of transformer oil].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ou, Linjun; Cao, Jian

    2014-09-01

    In the field of the chromatographic peak identification of the transformer oil, the traditional first-order derivative requires slope threshold to achieve peak identification. In terms of its shortcomings of low automation and easy distortion, the first-order derivative method was improved by applying the moving average iterative method and the normalized analysis techniques to identify the peaks. Accurate identification of the chromatographic peaks was realized through using multiple iterations of the moving average of signal curves and square wave curves to determine the optimal value of the normalized peak identification parameters, combined with the absolute peak retention times and peak window. The experimental results show that this algorithm can accurately identify the peaks and is not sensitive to the noise, the chromatographic peak width or the peak shape changes. It has strong adaptability to meet the on-site requirements of online monitoring devices of dissolved gases in transformer oil.

  18. Optimal stochastic short-term thermal and electrical operation of fuel cell/photovoltaic/battery/grid hybrid energy system in the presence of demand response program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Majidi, Majid; Nojavan, Sayyad; Zare, Kazem

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • On-grid photovoltaic/battery/fuel cell system is considered as hybrid system. • Thermal and electrical operation of hybrid energy system is studied. • Hybrid energy system is used to reduce dependency on upstream grid for load serving. • Demand response program is proposed to manage the electrical load. • Demand response program is proposed to reduce hybrid energy system’s operation cost. - Abstract: In this paper, cost-efficient operation problem of photovoltaic/battery/fuel cell hybrid energy system has been evaluated in the presence of demand response program. Each load curve has off-peak, mid and peak time periods in which the energy prices are different. Demand response program transfers some amount of load from peak periods to other periods to flatten the load curve and minimize total cost. So, the main goal is to meet the energy demand and propose a cost-efficient approach to minimize system’s total cost including system’s electrical cost and thermal cost and the revenue from exporting power to the upstream grid. A battery has been utilized as an electrical energy storage system and a heat storage tank is used as a thermal energy storage system to save energy in off-peak and mid-peak hours and then supply load in peak hours which leads to reduction of cost. The proposed cost-efficient operation problem of photovoltaic/battery/fuel cell hybrid energy system is modeled by a mixed-integer linear program and solved by General algebraic modeling system optimization software under CPLEX solver. Two case studies are investigated to show the effects of demand response program on reduction of total cost.

  19. Demand for electrical energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bergougnoux, J.; Fouquet, D.

    1983-01-01

    The different utilizations of electric energy are reviewed in the residential and tertiary sectors, in the industry. The competitive position of electricity in regard to other fuels has been strengthned by the sudden rise in the price of oil in 1973-1974 and 1979-1980. The evolution of electricity prices depended on the steps taken to adjust the electricity generation system. The substitution of electricity applications for hydro-carbons is an essential point of energy policy. The adjustment at all times, at least cost and most reliability, of the supply of electricity to the demand for it is a major problem in the design and operation of electric systems. National demand for power at a given moment is extremely diversified. Electricity consumption presents daily and seasonal variations, and variations according to the different sectors. Forecasting power requirements is for any decision on operation or investment relating to an electrical system. Load management is desirable (prices according to the customers, optional tariffs for ''peak-day withdrawal''). To conclude, prospects for increased electricity consumption are discussed [fr

  20. An electricity system : 18-month outlook from Oct 2004 to March 2006

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2004-01-01

    This report presents a resource assessment by the Independent Electricity Market Operator (IMO) for the 18-month period from October 2004 to March 2006. It is based on the IMO's forecast of electricity demand. The information was provided by power generators in Ontario. The outlook for the electricity system has improved due to new resource additions in 2004 which have improved the general supply situation. The Brighton Beach (580 MW) and Kirkland Lake (32 MW) facilities have completed commissioning since the last quarterly outlook. Plans have also been announced to return the nuclear Pickering Unit 1 to service for a projected capacity increase of 515 MW by the fall of 2005. The impending shutdown of 1150 MW of coal-fired generation at Lakeview Thermal Generating Station in Mississauga in April 2005 emphasizes the importance of improving transmission and generation capacity in the Toronto area. Requests for Proposals for 300 MW of renewable energy supply have been issued by the Ontario government along with requests for 2,500 MW of new clean generation and demand-side projects. This report also includes updated values for existing resource scenarios and planned resource scenarios. The reliability of Ontario's transmission system was also assessed along with the adequacy of the existing resource to meet the forecast demand. The existing installed generation resources include 5 nuclear stations generating 10,850 MW of electricity, 5 coal stations generating 7,564 MW of electricity, 23 oil and gas fired stations generating 4,976 MW of electricity, 61 hydroelectric stations generating 7,676 MW of electricity, and 2 other stations generating 66 MW of electricity. Although the existing resource scenario is better than in previous reports, imports will be required under extreme weather conditions to help meet electricity demand in Ontario during peak periods. 19 tabs., 10 figs

  1. Impacts of rising air temperatures on electric transmission ampacity and peak electricity load in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartos, Matthew; Chester, Mikhail; Johnson, Nathan; Gorman, Brandon; Eisenberg, Daniel; Linkov, Igor; Bates, Matthew

    2016-11-01

    Climate change may constrain future electricity supply adequacy by reducing electric transmission capacity and increasing electricity demand. The carrying capacity of electric power cables decreases as ambient air temperatures rise; similarly, during the summer peak period, electricity loads typically increase with hotter air temperatures due to increased air conditioning usage. As atmospheric carbon concentrations increase, higher ambient air temperatures may strain power infrastructure by simultaneously reducing transmission capacity and increasing peak electricity load. We estimate the impacts of rising ambient air temperatures on electric transmission ampacity and peak per-capita electricity load for 121 planning areas in the United States using downscaled global climate model projections. Together, these planning areas account for roughly 80% of current peak summertime load. We estimate climate-attributable capacity reductions to transmission lines by constructing thermal models of representative conductors, then forcing these models with future temperature projections to determine the percent change in rated ampacity. Next, we assess the impact of climate change on electricity load by using historical relationships between ambient temperature and utility-scale summertime peak load to estimate the extent to which climate change will incur additional peak load increases. We find that by mid-century (2040-2060), increases in ambient air temperature may reduce average summertime transmission capacity by 1.9%-5.8% relative to the 1990-2010 reference period. At the same time, peak per-capita summertime loads may rise by 4.2%-15% on average due to increases in ambient air temperature. In the absence of energy efficiency gains, demand-side management programs and transmission infrastructure upgrades, these load increases have the potential to upset current assumptions about future electricity supply adequacy.

  2. Influencing Factors and Development Trend Analysis of China Electric Grid Investment Demand Based on a Panel Co-Integration Model

    OpenAIRE

    Jinchao Li; Lin Chen; Yuwei Xiang; Jinying Li; Dong Peng

    2018-01-01

    Electric grid investment demand analysis is significant to reasonably arranging construction funds for the electric grid and reduce costs. This paper used the panel data of electric grid investment from 23 provinces of China between 2004 and 2016 as samples to analyze the influence between electric grid investment demand and GDP, population scale, social electricity consumption, installed electrical capacity, and peak load based on co-integration tests. We find that GDP and peak load have pos...

  3. Impacts of Using Distributed Energy Resources to Reduce Peak Loads in Vermont

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ruth, Mark F. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Lunacek, Monte S. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Jones, Birk [Univ. of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM (United States); Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-11-28

    To help the United States develop a modern electricity grid that provides reliable power from multiple resources as well as resiliency under extreme conditions, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is leading the Grid Modernization Initiative (GMI) to help shape the future of the nation's grid. Under the GMI, DOE funded the Vermont Regional Initiative project to provide the technical support and analysis to utilities that need to mitigate possible impacts of increasing renewable generation required by statewide goals. Advanced control of distributed energy resources (DER) can both support higher penetrations of renewable energy by balancing controllable loads to wind and photovoltaic (PV) solar generation and reduce peak demand by shedding noncritical loads. This work focuses on the latter. This document reports on an experiment that evaluated and quantified the potential benefits and impacts of reducing the peak load through demand response (DR) using centrally controllable electric water heaters (EWHs) and batteries on two Green Mountain Power (GMP) feeders. The experiment simulated various hypothetical scenarios that varied the number of controllable EWHs, the amount of distributed PV systems, and the number of distributed residential batteries. The control schemes were designed with several objectives. For the first objective, the primary simulations focused on reducing the load during the independent system operator (ISO) peak when capacity charges were the primary concern. The second objective was to mitigate DR rebound to avoid new peak loads and high ramp rates. The final objective was to minimize customers' discomfort, which is defined by the lack of hot water when it is needed. We performed the simulations using the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL's) Integrated Energy System Model (IESM) because it can simulate both electric power distribution feeder and appliance end use performance and it includes the ability to simulate

  4. Peak Oil profiles through the lens of a general equilibrium assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Waisman, Henri; Rozenberg, Julie; Sassi, Olivier; Hourcade, Jean-Charles

    2012-01-01

    This paper disentangles the interactions between oil production profiles, the dynamics of oil prices and growth trends. We do so through a general equilibrium model in which Peak Oil endogenously emerges from the interplay between the geological, technical, macroeconomic and geopolitical determinants of supply and demand under non-perfect expectations. We analyze the macroeconomic effects of oil production profiles and demonstrate that Peak Oil dates that differ only slightly may lead to very different time profiles of oil prices, exportation flows and economic activity. We investigate Middle-East's trade-off between different pricing trajectories in function of two alternative objectives (maximisation of oil revenues or households’ welfare) and assess its impact on OECD growth trajectories. A sensitivity analysis highlights the respective roles of the amount of resources, inertia on the deployment of non conventional oil and short-term oil price dynamics on Peak Oil dates and long-term oil prices. It also examines the effects of these assumptions on OECD growth and Middle-East strategic tradeoffs. - Highlights: ► Geological determinants behind Hubbert curves in a general equilibrium framework. ► We endogenize the interactions between Peak Oil dates, oil prices and growth trends. ► Close Peak Oil dates lead to different trends of oil prices, exportation and growth. ► Low short-term prices benefit to the long-term macroeconomy of oil exporters. ► High short-term prices hedge oil importers against economic tensions after Peak Oil.

  5. Aerobic capacity and peak power output of elite quadriplegic games players

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goosey‐Tolfrey, V; Castle, P; Webborn, N

    2006-01-01

    Background Participation in wheelchair sports such as tennis and rugby enables people with quadriplegia to compete both individually and as a team at the highest level. Both sports are dominated by frequent, intermittent, short term power demands superimposed on a background of aerobic activity. Objective To gain physiological profiles of highly trained British quadriplegic athletes, and to examine the relation between aerobic and sprint capacity. Methods Eight male quadriplegic athletes performed an arm crank exercise using an ergometer fitted with a Schoberer Rad Messtechnik (SRM) powermeter. The sprint test consisted of three maximum‐effort sprints of five seconds duration against a resistance of 2%, 3%, and 4% of body mass. The highest power output obtained was recorded (PPO). Peak oxygen consumption (V̇o2peak), peak heart rate (HRpeak), and maximal power output (POaer) were determined. Results Mean POaer was 67.7 (16.2) W, mean V̇o2peak was 0.96 (0.17) litres/min, and HRpeak was 134 (19) beats/min for the group. There was high variability among subjects. Peak power over the five second sprint for the group was 220 (62) W. There was a significant correlation between V̇o2peak (litres/min) and POaer (W) (r  =  0.74, p<0.05). Conclusions These British quadriplegic athletes have relatively high aerobic fitness when compared with the available literature. Moreover, the anaerobic capacity of these athletes appeared to be relatively high compared with paraplegic participants. PMID:16611721

  6. Refrigerated Warehouse Demand Response Strategy Guide

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Scott, Doug [VaCom Technologies, San Luis Obispo, CA (United States); Castillo, Rafael [VaCom Technologies, San Luis Obispo, CA (United States); Larson, Kyle [VaCom Technologies, San Luis Obispo, CA (United States); Dobbs, Brian [VaCom Technologies, San Luis Obispo, CA (United States); Olsen, Daniel [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2015-11-01

    This guide summarizes demand response measures that can be implemented in refrigerated warehouses. In an appendix, it also addresses related energy efficiency opportunities. Reducing overall grid demand during peak periods and energy consumption has benefits for facility operators, grid operators, utility companies, and society. State wide demand response potential for the refrigerated warehouse sector in California is estimated to be over 22.1 Megawatts. Two categories of demand response strategies are described in this guide: load shifting and load shedding. Load shifting can be accomplished via pre-cooling, capacity limiting, and battery charger load management. Load shedding can be achieved by lighting reduction, demand defrost and defrost termination, infiltration reduction, and shutting down miscellaneous equipment. Estimation of the costs and benefits of demand response participation yields simple payback periods of 2-4 years. To improve demand response performance, it’s suggested to install air curtains and another form of infiltration barrier, such as a rollup door, for the passageways. Further modifications to increase efficiency of the refrigeration unit are also analyzed. A larger condenser can maintain the minimum saturated condensing temperature (SCT) for more hours of the day. Lowering the SCT reduces the compressor lift, which results in an overall increase in refrigeration system capacity and energy efficiency. Another way of saving energy in refrigerated warehouses is eliminating the use of under-floor resistance heaters. A more energy efficient alternative to resistance heaters is to utilize the heat that is being rejected from the condenser through a heat exchanger. These energy efficiency measures improve efficiency either by reducing the required electric energy input for the refrigeration system, by helping to curtail the refrigeration load on the system, or by reducing both the load and required energy input.

  7. U.S. electric utility demand-side management 1995

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1997-01-01

    The US Electric Utility Demand-Side Management report is prepared by the Coal and Electric Data and Renewables Division; Office of Coal, Nuclear, Electric and Alternative Fuels; Energy Information Administration (EIA); US Department of Energy. The report presents comprehensive information on electric power industry demand-side management (DSM) activities in the US at the national, regional, and utility levels. The objective of the publication is to provide industry decision makers, government policy makers, analysts, and the general public with historical data that may be used in understanding DSM as it relates to the US electric power industry. The first chapter, ''Profile: US Electric Utility Demand-Side Management'', presents a general discussion of DSM, its history, current issues, and a review of key statistics for the year. Subsequent chapters present discussions and more detailed data on energy savings, peak load reductions and costs attributable to DSM. 9 figs., 24 tabs

  8. Peak expiratory flow as a predictor for the effectiveness of sport for patients with COPD.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jungblut, S; Frickmann, H; Klingler, J; Zimmermann, B; Bargon, Joachim

    2006-01-31

    This study intended to find simple parameters that were able to determine the increase in physical performance as a result of sport in a group of patients with COPD (lung sport). We regularly investigated pulse, oxygenation and peak expiratory flow in participants with COPD of a "lung sport group", who participated in a structured weekly training program under professional supervision. Ten volunteers (7 females, 3 males, median of age = 69) with COPD (grade II-III) took part in the study. - The relative changes after 3 and 6 months were compared with the values of the first month of exercise. Measurements were carried out before exercise, after stamina training and at the end of the program. - Pulse and oxygenation did not show any changes. However, there was a significant improvement of peak flow after 6 months. - These peak flow changes represent further evidence of positive effects of sport in COPD and provide a parameter which allows the patients themselves to measure and evaluate the success of their physical activity.

  9. Future demand in electrical power and meeting this demand, in particular with the aid of nuclear energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1976-07-01

    As a part of the research program in question, the study deals with meeting the electrical power demand in the FRG until the year 2000 in the best possible way with regard to costs, and evaluating the long-term technical, ecological, and economical effects resulting thereof. With the aid of a model, the construction of additional plants and the use of the FRG's power plant network, always applying economical criteria, are investigated while allowing for adequate assurance of supply. It becomes obvious that the power plants and fuels available influence a 25-year planning period. In the year 2000, nuclear energy will play a dominating role in meeting the demand, the conventional thermal power plants will be used more for coping with the above-average medium laods, while peak loads will be met, above all, by pump storage stations. (UA) [de

  10. Demand response concepts in the German industry; Konzepte zur Lastreaktion in der deutschen Industrie

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Roon, Serafin von; Gobmaier, Thomas [Forschungsstelle fuer Energiewirtschaft (FfE) e.V., Muenchen (Germany)

    2011-07-01

    In the German industry the concept of load management for peak shaving is well established. Pooling these reserve power enables reliable power supply at short notice. In the U.S. this business concept - called Demand Response - is already quite successful. The article summarizes findings on the status quo and the technical and economic potential of implementing Demand Response in the German industry. (orig.)

  11. Peak Electric Load Relief in Northern Manhattan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hildegaard D. Link

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available The aphorism “Think globally, act locally,” attributed to René Dubos, reflects the vision that the solution to global environmental problems must begin with efforts within our communities. PlaNYC 2030, the New York City sustainability plan, is the starting point for this study. Results include (a a case study based on the City College of New York (CCNY energy audit, in which we model the impacts of green roofs on campus energy demand and (b a case study of energy use at the neighborhood scale. We find that reducing the urban heat island effect can reduce building cooling requirements, peak electricity loads stress on the local electricity grid and improve urban livability.

  12. A Novel approach for predicting monthly water demand by combining singular spectrum analysis with neural networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zubaidi, Salah L.; Dooley, Jayne; Alkhaddar, Rafid M.; Abdellatif, Mawada; Al-Bugharbee, Hussein; Ortega-Martorell, Sandra

    2018-06-01

    Valid and dependable water demand prediction is a major element of the effective and sustainable expansion of municipal water infrastructures. This study provides a novel approach to quantifying water demand through the assessment of climatic factors, using a combination of a pretreatment signal technique, a hybrid particle swarm optimisation algorithm and an artificial neural network (PSO-ANN). The Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) technique was adopted to decompose and reconstruct water consumption in relation to six weather variables, to create a seasonal and stochastic time series. The results revealed that SSA is a powerful technique, capable of decomposing the original time series into many independent components including trend, oscillatory behaviours and noise. In addition, the PSO-ANN algorithm was shown to be a reliable prediction model, outperforming the hybrid Backtracking Search Algorithm BSA-ANN in terms of fitness function (RMSE). The findings of this study also support the view that water demand is driven by climatological variables.

  13. Responsive demand to mitigate slow recovery voltage sags

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Garcia-Valle, Rodrigo; da Silva, Luiz Carlos Pereira; Xu, Zhao

    2012-01-01

    , and reactive power reserve for peak load management through price responsive methods and also as energy providers through embedded generation technologies. This article introduces a new technology, called demand as voltagecontrolled reserve, which can help mitigation of momentary voltage sags. The technology...... faults. This article presents detailed models, discussion, and simulation tests to demonstrate the technical viability and effectiveness of the demand as voltage-controlled reserve technology for mitigating voltage sags....... can be provided by thermostatically controlled loads as well as other types of load. This technology has proven to be effective in distribution systems with a large composition of induction motors, when voltage sags present slow recovery characteristics because of the deceleration of the motors during...

  14. A Novel Prosumer-Based Energy Sharing and Management (PESM) Approach for Cooperative Demand Side Management (DSM) in Smart Grid

    OpenAIRE

    Sohail Razzaq; Rehman Zafar; Naveed Ahmed Khan; Asif Raza Butt; Anzar Mahmood

    2016-01-01

    Increasing population and modern lifestyle have raised energy demands globally. Demand Side Management (DSM) is one important tool used to manage energy demands. It employs an advanced power infrastructure along with bi-directional information flow among utilities and users in order to achieve a balanced load curve and minimize demand-supply mismatch. Traditionally, this involves shifting the electricity demand from peak hours to other times of the day in an optimized manner. Multiple users e...

  15. Elasticities of electricity demand in urban Indian households

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Filippini, Massimo; Pachauri, Shonali

    2004-01-01

    In the past, several electricity demand studies have been published for India based on aggregate macro data at the country or sub-national/state level. Since the underlying theory of consumer demand is based on the behaviour of individual agents, the use of micro data, which reflects individual and household behaviour, more closely, can shed greater light on the nature of consumer responses. In this paper, seasonal price and income elasticities of electricity demand in the residential sector of all urban areas of India are estimated for the first time using disaggregate level survey data for about 30,000 households. Three electricity demand functions have been econometrically estimated using monthly data for the winter, monsoon and summer season in order to understand the extent to which factors like income, prices, household size and other household specific characteristics, influence variations observed in individual households' electricity demand. The results show electricity demand is income and price inelastic in all three seasons, and that household, demographic and geographical variables are significant in determining electricity demand

  16. A grid-tied PV system for commercial load and peak load reduction: South African case study

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Senatla, Mamahloko

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available -peak periods could be useful in reducing peak demand [1], battery life (if cycled every day), efficiency and cost may limit its usage. Also the TOU charges may not be high enough to justify the added expense of adding battery storage. Most of the research... work in various research communities analyse financial benefits for residential customers as opposed to commercial and industrial customers [2] [3]. For instance, the usage pattern of residential customers collected from a pilot project in India...

  17. Ethanol demand in Brazil: Regional approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Freitas, Luciano Charlita de; Kaneko, Shinji

    2011-01-01

    Successive studies attempting to clarify national aspects of ethanol demand have assisted policy makers and producers in defining strategies, but little information is available on the dynamic of regional ethanol markets. This study aims to analyze the characteristics of ethanol demand at the regional level taking into account the peculiarities of the developed center-south and the developing north-northeast regions. Regional ethanol demand is evaluated based on a set of market variables that include ethanol price, consumer's income, vehicle stock and prices of substitute fuels; i.e., gasoline and natural gas. A panel cointegration analysis with monthly observations from January 2003 to April 2010 is employed to estimate the long-run demand elasticity. The results reveal that the demand for ethanol in Brazil differs between regions. While in the center-south region the price elasticity for both ethanol and alternative fuels is high, consumption in the north-northeast is more sensitive to changes in the stock of the ethanol-powered fleet and income. These, among other evidences, suggest that the pattern of ethanol demand in the center-south region most closely resembles that in developed nations, while the pattern of demand in the north-northeast most closely resembles that in developing nations. - Research highlights: → Article consists of a first insight on regional demand for ethanol in Brazil. → It proposes a model with multiple fuels, i.e., hydrous ethanol, gasohol and natural gas. → Results evidence that figures for regional demand for ethanol differ amongst regions and with values reported for national demand. → Elasticities for the center-south keep similarities to patterns for fuel demand in developed nations while coefficients for the north-northeast are aligned to patterns on developing countries.

  18. Ethanol demand in Brazil: Regional approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Freitas, Luciano Charlita de, E-mail: lucianofreitas@hiroshima-u.ac.j [Graduate School for International Development and Cooperation, Development Policy, Hiroshima University 1-5-1 Kagamiyama, Higashi-Hiroshima, Hiroshima 739-8529 (Japan); Kaneko, Shinji [Graduate School for International Development and Cooperation, Development Policy, Hiroshima University 1-5-1 Kagamiyama, Higashi-Hiroshima, Hiroshima 739-8529 (Japan)

    2011-05-15

    Successive studies attempting to clarify national aspects of ethanol demand have assisted policy makers and producers in defining strategies, but little information is available on the dynamic of regional ethanol markets. This study aims to analyze the characteristics of ethanol demand at the regional level taking into account the peculiarities of the developed center-south and the developing north-northeast regions. Regional ethanol demand is evaluated based on a set of market variables that include ethanol price, consumer's income, vehicle stock and prices of substitute fuels; i.e., gasoline and natural gas. A panel cointegration analysis with monthly observations from January 2003 to April 2010 is employed to estimate the long-run demand elasticity. The results reveal that the demand for ethanol in Brazil differs between regions. While in the center-south region the price elasticity for both ethanol and alternative fuels is high, consumption in the north-northeast is more sensitive to changes in the stock of the ethanol-powered fleet and income. These, among other evidences, suggest that the pattern of ethanol demand in the center-south region most closely resembles that in developed nations, while the pattern of demand in the north-northeast most closely resembles that in developing nations. - Research highlights: {yields} Article consists of a first insight on regional demand for ethanol in Brazil. {yields} It proposes a model with multiple fuels, i.e., hydrous ethanol, gasohol and natural gas. {yields} Results evidence that figures for regional demand for ethanol differ amongst regions and with values reported for national demand. {yields} Elasticities for the center-south keep similarities to patterns for fuel demand in developed nations while coefficients for the north-northeast are aligned to patterns on developing countries.

  19. Stopping coal-fired electricity imports on smog days : a review of the OPA's proposed 250 MW demand response program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gibbons, J.

    2006-01-01

    This paper proposed an alternative to importing coal-fired electricity from the Ohio Valley on smog alert days in Ontario. It was suggested that the Ontario Power Authority (OPA) should pay large electricity consumers to shift some of their consumption from peak to off-peak hours. It was observed that demand response programs which pay consumers to shift demands to off-peak hours can provide multiple benefits to Ontario, including reduced air pollution on smog-alert days, a reduction in the spot price of electricity and reduced price volatility. In addition, demand response programs reduce the risk of blackouts and brownouts, as well as the need for new electricity generation and transmission infrastructure. It was noted that the Independent Electricity System Operator (IESO) and the OPA are planning to introduce demand response programs for the summer of 2006. However, the IESO's emergency load reduction program will be operated only during emergency situations to avoid the need for voltage reductions, while the OPA proposes to introduce a non-emergency demand response program which will be activated during most smog-alert days. Various amendments to the proposed program were suggested in this paper, including the establishment of price parity with coal-fired electricity imports; the provision of notification by 3 PM of the need for demand reductions the following day; no capping on the quantity of demand reductions that the OPA will purchase at a lower cost than electricity imports; and that the OPA's proposed Capacity Building Demand Response Program should proceed as quickly as possible without a pre-determined MW cap. 4 refs., 6 figs

  20. Development of reader for the demand data from compound demand meter for power supply/demand (CDM). Development of recommended tools for load leveling in existing works; Denryoku jukyuyo fukugo keiki kara no demand data yomitori sochi no kaihatsu. Kisetsu kojo no fuka heijunka suisho tool no kaihatsu

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sakamoto, S. [Kansai Electric Power Co. Inc., Osaka (Japan)

    1997-10-10

    Kansai Electric Power has developed a system which reads the demand data for 30min. stored in the compound demand meter for power supply/demand (CDM), and prints the load curves. It is for customers of high-voltage power of less than 500kW, where load management is less extensive than that in larger users, for initial consulting on improvement of load factor (recommendation of heat storage contracts). It is to be installed on the spot to display the load curves, to allow the expert visiting the site to issue initial proposals immediately. It displays `daily demands by time zone` instead of `monthly power consumption` previously provided, and makes the graph of demands by time zone. It is designed to be compact, light, and easily and safely handled. The field test results indicate that the system can be sufficiently practical with the major performance items. 4 figs., 1 tab.

  1. Application of cold thermal energy storage (CTES) for building demand management in hot climates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Comodi, Gabriele; Carducci, Francesco; Nagarajan, Balamurugan; Romagnoli, Alessandro

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • A new index, Savings per energy unit, is defined to assess the effectiveness of CTES. • CTES systems were used to perform demand management strategies, removing partial load operations and shaving peak loads. • CTES was used to perform price arbitrage, exploiting the difference between peak and off peak electricity rates in Singapore. • Results showed that it is possible to enhance the efficiency of the whole system, achieving both energy and economic savings. • Depending on the sizing scenario, the pay back periods ranged from a minimum of 8.9 years to a maximum of 16 years. - Abstract: This paper investigates the feasibility of Cold Thermal Energy Storage (CTES) for building demand management applications in hot climate characterized by a cooling season lasting all year long. An existing office building, located in Singapore, serves as case study. The CTES is coupled to the existing cooling systems in order to address the opportunity of improving overall energy efficiency and to perform price arbitrage, exploiting the spread between peak and off-peak energy tariffs. Six different sizes for the CTES are analyzed, addressing different percentage of the daily cooling energy demand. A new index, Savings per energy unit, is defined to assess the effectiveness of CTES. Results indicate that it is possible to enhance the efficiency of the whole cooling system, achieving both energy and economic savings. The payback periods of the different solutions range from a minimum of 8.9 years to a maximum of 16 years. All these aspects make CTES applications a viable option. However, a large amount of space in direct proximity to the building is necessary and, especially in largely urban environment, this is not always available.

  2. Demand response evaluation and forecasting — Methods and results from the EcoGrid EU experiment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Emil Mahler; Pinson, Pierre; Leimgruber, Fabian

    2017-01-01

    Understanding electricity consumers participating in new demand response schemes is important for investment decisions and the design and operation of electricity markets. Important metrics include peak response, time to peak response, energy delivered, ramping, and how the response changes...... with respect to external conditions. Such characteristics dictate the services DR is capable of offering, like primary frequency reserves, peak load shaving, and system balancing. In this paper, we develop methods to characterise price-responsive demand from the EcoGrid EU demonstration in a way that was bid...... into a real-time market. EcoGrid EU is a smart grid experiment with 1900 residential customers who are equipped with smart meters and automated devices reacting to five-minute electricity pricing. Customers are grouped and analysed according to the manufacturer that controlled devices. A number of advanced...

  3. The impact of small scale cogeneration on the gas demand at distribution level

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vandewalle, J.; D’haeseleer, W.

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Impact on the gas network of a massive implementation of cogeneration. • Distributed energy resources in a smart grid environment. • Optimisation of cogeneration scheduling. - Abstract: Smart grids are often regarded as an important step towards the future energy system. Combined heat and power (CHP) or cogeneration has several advantages in the context of the smart grid, which include the efficient use of primary energy and the reduction of electrical losses through transmission. However, the role of the gas network is often overlooked in this context. Therefore, this work presents an analysis of the impact of a massive implementation of small scale (micro) cogeneration units on the gas demand at distribution level. This work shows that using generic information in the simulations overestimates the impact of CHP. Furthermore, the importance of the thermal storage tank capacity on the impact on the gas demand is shown. Larger storage tanks lead to lower gas demand peaks and hence a lower impact on the gas distribution network. It is also shown that the use of an economically led controller leads to similar results compared to classical heat led control. Finally, it results that a low sell back tariff for electricity increases the impact of cogeneration on the gas demand peak

  4. Demand response in Indian electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Siddiqui, Md Zakaria; Maere d'Aertrycke, Gauthier de; Smeers, Yves

    2012-01-01

    This paper outlines a methodology for implementing cost of service regulation in retail market for electricity in India when wholesale market is liberalised and operates through an hourly spot market. As in a developing country context political considerations make tariff levels more important than supply security, satisfying the earmarked level of demand takes a back seat. Retail market regulators are often forced by politicians to keep the retail tariff at suboptimal level. This imposes budget constraint on distribution companies to procure electricity that it requires to meet the earmarked level of demand. This is the way demand response is introduced in the system and has its impact on spot market prices. We model such a situation of not being able to serve the earmarked demand as disutility to the regulator which has to be minimised and we compute associated equilibrium. This results in systematic mechanism for cutting loads. We find that even a small cut in ability of the distribution companies to procure electricity from the spot market has profound impact on the prices in the spot market. - Highlights: ► Modelling the impact of retail tariff in different states on spot prices of electricity in India. ► Retail tariffs are usually fixed below appropriate levels by states due to political reasons. ► Due to revenue constraint distribution utility withdraws demand from spot market in peak hours. ► This adversely affects the scarcity rent of generators and subsequently future investment. ► We show possibility of strategic behaviour among state level regulators in setting retail tariff.

  5. Climate Change Impacts on Peak Electricity Consumption: US vs. Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Auffhammer, M.

    2016-12-01

    It has been suggested that climate change impacts on the electric sector will account for the majority of global economic damages by the end of the current century and beyond. This finding is at odds with the relatively modest increase in climate driven impacts on consumption. Comprehensive high frequency load balancing authority level data have not been used previously to parameterize the relationship between electric demand and temperature for any major economy. Using statistical models we analyze multi-year data from load balancing authorities in the United States of America and the European Union, which are responsible for more than 90% of the electricity delivered to residential, industrial, commercial and agricultural customers. We couple the estimated response functions between total daily consumption and daily peak load with an ensemble of downscaled GCMs from the CMIP5 archive to simulate climate change driven impacts on both outcomes. We show moderate and highly spatially heterogeneous changes in consumption. The results of our peak load simulations, however, suggest significant changes in the intensity and frequency of peak events throughout the United States and Europe. As the electricity grid is built to endure maximum load, which usually occurs on the hottest day of the year, our findings have significant implications for the construction of costly peak generating and transmission capacity.

  6. Smart Demand Response Based on Smart Homes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jingang Lai

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Smart homes (SHs are crucial parts for demand response management (DRM of smart grid (SG. The aim of SHs based demand response (DR is to provide a flexible two-way energy feedback whilst (or shortly after the consumption occurs. It can potentially persuade end-users to achieve energy saving and cooperate with the electricity producer or supplier to maintain balance between the electricity supply and demand through the method of peak shaving and valley filling. However, existing solutions are challenged by the lack of consideration between the wide application of fiber power cable to the home (FPCTTH and related users’ behaviors. Based on the new network infrastructure, the design and development of smart DR systems based on SHs are related with not only functionalities as security, convenience, and comfort, but also energy savings. A new multirouting protocol based on Kruskal’s algorithm is designed for the reliability and safety of the SHs distribution network. The benefits of FPCTTH-based SHs are summarized at the end of the paper.

  7. Global Energy Trends - 2016 report. Towards a Peak in Energy Demand and CO2 Emissions?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2016-06-01

    Celebrating the 20. anniversary of this yearly publication, Enerdata has newly released its annual Global Energy Trends publication for 2016. The full report presents in-depth information on the energy markets as well as upcoming trends for all energies in the G20. With over 400 premium sources, Enerdata analysts highlight major developments in 2015 concerning global demand, supply and key indicators across the globe. The main trends outlined in the report are: - Economic slowdown: the lowest growth since 2002; - Almost no growth in energy consumption; - New decrease of energy intensity; - Stabilization of CO 2 -energy emissions; - INDC targets achievement requires a double breakthrough. The Global Energy Trends Analysis also provides additional graphs about trends by energy: - Coal: most consumed energy source in G20 countries; - Oil: fall in prices to around 40-50 US$/bbl; - Oil production: USA overtake Russia and catch up with Saudi Arabia; - Gas: Stabilisation of gas demand for the 2. consecutive year; - Electricity: Stagnation of electricity consumption; - Wind Power and Solar PV: Asia engine of development. Growth in energy consumption (%/year) for G20 countries: - Second consecutive year of decline: low growth and decrease in energy intensity; - India drives the energy consumption growth; - Near stagnation in China (after a first sharp slowdown in 2014); - Economic recession in Brazil and Russia; - USA: decrease primarily linked to the industrial sector (energy efficiency + less energy-intensive industry); - Rebound in Europe: economic growth + climate effect 2015/2014

  8. The analysis of Taiwan's residential electricity demand under the electricity tariff policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Po-Jui

    In October 2013, the Taiwan Power Company (Taipower), the monopolized state utility service in Taiwan, implemented an electricity tariff adjustment policy to reduce residential electricity demand. Using bi-monthly billing data from 6,932 electricity consumers, this study examine how consumers respond to an increase in electricity prices. This study employs an empirical approach that takes advantage of quasi-random variation over a period of time when household bills were affected by a change in electricity price. The study found that this price increase caused a 1.78% decline in residential electricity consumption, implying a price elasticity of -0.19 for summer-season months and -0.15 for non-summer-season months. The demand for electricity is therefore relatively inelastic, likely because it is hard for people to change their electricity consumption behavior in the short-term. The results of this study highlight that demand-side management cannot be the only lever used to address Taiwan's forecasted decrease in electricity supply.

  9. Peak Wind Tool for General Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barrett, Joe H., III

    2010-01-01

    The expected peak wind speed of the day is an important forecast element in the 45th Weather Squadron's (45 WS) daily 24-Hour and Weekly Planning Forecasts. The forecasts are used for ground and space launch operations at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS). The 45 WS also issues wind advisories for KSC/CCAFS when they expect wind gusts to meet or exceed 25 kt, 35 kt and 50 kt thresholds at any level from the surface to 300 ft. The 45 WS forecasters have indicated peak wind speeds are challenging to forecast, particularly in the cool season months of October - April. In Phase I of this task, the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) developed a tool to help the 45 WS forecast non-convective winds at KSC/CCAFS for the 24-hour period of 0800 to 0800 local time. The tool was delivered as a Microsoft Excel graphical user interface (GUI). The GUI displayed the forecast of peak wind speed, 5-minute average wind speed at the time of the peak wind, timing of the peak wind and probability the peak speed would meet or exceed 25 kt, 35 kt and 50 kt. For the current task (Phase II ), the 45 WS requested additional observations be used for the creation of the forecast equations by expanding the period of record (POR). Additional parameters were evaluated as predictors, including wind speeds between 500 ft and 3000 ft, static stability classification, Bulk Richardson Number, mixing depth, vertical wind shear, temperature inversion strength and depth and wind direction. Using a verification data set, the AMU compared the performance of the Phase I and II prediction methods. Just as in Phase I, the tool was delivered as a Microsoft Excel GUI. The 45 WS requested the tool also be available in the Meteorological Interactive Data Display System (MIDDS). The AMU first expanded the POR by two years by adding tower observations, surface observations and CCAFS (XMR) soundings for the cool season months of March 2007 to April 2009. The POR was expanded

  10. Opportunities for Automated Demand Response in California’s Dairy Processing Industry

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Homan, Gregory K. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Aghajanzadeh, Arian [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); McKane, Aimee [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2015-08-30

    During periods of peak electrical demand on the energy grid or when there is a shortage of supply, the stability of the grid may be compromised or the cost of supplying electricity may rise dramatically, respectively. Demand response programs are designed to mitigate the severity of these problems and improve reliability by reducing the demand on the grid during such critical times. In 2010, the Demand Response Research Center convened a group of industry experts to suggest potential industries that would be good demand response program candidates for further review. The dairy industry was suggested due to the perception that the industry had suitable flexibility and automatic controls in place. The purpose of this report is to provide an initial description of the industry with regard to demand response potential, specifically automated demand response. This report qualitatively describes the potential for participation in demand response and automated demand response by dairy processing facilities in California, as well as barriers to widespread participation. The report first describes the magnitude, timing, location, purpose, and manner of energy use. Typical process equipment and controls are discussed, as well as common impediments to participation in demand response and automated demand response programs. Two case studies of demand response at dairy facilities in California and across the country are reviewed. Finally, recommendations are made for future research that can enhance the understanding of demand response potential in this industry.

  11. Northwest Open Automated Demand Response Technology Demonstration Project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kiliccote, Sila; Dudley, Junqiao Han; Piette, Mary Ann

    2009-08-01

    Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) and the Demand Response Research Center (DRRC) performed a technology demonstration and evaluation for Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) in Seattle City Light's (SCL) service territory. This report summarizes the process and results of deploying open automated demand response (OpenADR) in Seattle area with winter morning peaking commercial buildings. The field tests were designed to evaluate the feasibility of deploying fully automated demand response (DR) in four to six sites in the winter and the savings from various building systems. The project started in November of 2008 and lasted 6 months. The methodology for the study included site recruitment, control strategy development, automation system deployment and enhancements, and evaluation of sites participation in DR test events. LBNL subcontracted McKinstry and Akuacom for this project. McKinstry assisted with recruitment, site survey collection, strategy development and overall participant and control vendor management. Akuacom established a new server and enhanced its operations to allow for scheduling winter morning day-of and day-ahead events. Each site signed a Memorandum of Agreement with SCL. SCL offered each site $3,000 for agreeing to participate in the study and an additional $1,000 for each event they participated. Each facility and their control vendor worked with LBNL and McKinstry to select and implement control strategies for DR and developed their automation based on the existing Internet connectivity and building control system. Once the DR strategies were programmed, McKinstry commissioned them before actual test events. McKinstry worked with LBNL to identify control points that can be archived at each facility. For each site LBNL collected meter data and trend logs from the energy management and control system. The communication system allowed the sites to receive day-ahead as well as day-of DR test event signals. Measurement of DR was

  12. What is demand response? Contributing to secure security-of-supply at the electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grenaa Jensen, Stine; Skytte, Klaus; Togeby, Mikael

    2004-01-01

    There is a common understanding that demand response can reduce the total costs of electricity reliability. There has especially been a growing interest in the electricity market where high spot prices in peak periods and blackouts have recently been seen. It is not easy from the existing literature to find a common definition of demands response. Often the term demand response is used broadly without looking at the time dimension. However, it does not make sense to talk about demand response without talking about when, for how long the energy is used or saved, and at which costs. This paper surveys these subjects and set up a systematic grouping of the different characteristics of demand response. It especially looks at the time dimension. (au)

  13. Association between infancy BMI peak and body composition and blood pressure at age 5-6 years

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hof, Michel H. P.; Vrijkotte, Tanja G. M.; de Hoog, Marieke L. A.; van Eijsden, Manon; Zwinderman, Aeilko H.

    2013-01-01

    The development of overweight is often measured with the body mass index (BMI). During childhood the BMI curve has two characteristic points: the adiposity rebound at 6 years and the BMI peak at 9 months of age. In this study, the associations between the BMI peak and body composition measures and

  14. Supply and demand elasticities in the U.S. ethanol fuel market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Luchansky, Matthew S.; Monks, James

    2009-01-01

    The market for ethanol has grown from approximately 1.2 billion gallons in 1997 to almost 5 billion gallons in 2006. With the huge increase in ethanol demand in recent years, the growth in derived demand for corn has driven up many food prices. This paper uses monthly data from 1997-2006 to estimate the market supply and demand for ethanol at the national level. The simultaneous determination of the supply and demand curves using two-stage least squares allows for the calculation of supply and demand-side elasticities, which are important results in light of the tremendous growth in this market and recent legislation concerning ethanol. (author)

  15. Supply and demand elasticities in the U.S. ethanol fuel market

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Luchansky, Matthew S. [University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign49 Roger Adams Lab, 81-5600 S. Mathews Ave., Urbana, IL 61801 (United States); Monks, James [Robins School of Business, University of Richmond, Richmond, VA 23173 (United States)

    2009-05-15

    The market for ethanol has grown from approximately 1.2 billion gallons in 1997 to almost 5 billion gallons in 2006. With the huge increase in ethanol demand in recent years, the growth in derived demand for corn has driven up many food prices. This paper uses monthly data from 1997-2006 to estimate the market supply and demand for ethanol at the national level. The simultaneous determination of the supply and demand curves using two-stage least squares allows for the calculation of supply and demand-side elasticities, which are important results in light of the tremendous growth in this market and recent legislation concerning ethanol. (author)

  16. Impact of energy storage in buildings on electricity demand side management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Qureshi, Waqar A.; Nair, Nirmal-Kumar C.; Farid, Mohammad M.

    2011-01-01

    Research highlights: → Phase change material (PCM) application for space heating has been implemented and assessed for built environment. → Real-Time Pricing (RTP) is assessed as tool to implement Demand Side Management programs effectively. → Two buildings, with and without PCM, have been compared for space heating using RTP in functional electricity market. → PCM found to offer peak load shifting, energy conservation, and reduction in price of electricity. -- Abstract: This paper assesses impact of using phase change materials (PCM) in buildings to leverage its thermal energy storage capability. The emphasis is from an electricity demand side perspective with case studies that incorporates wholesale electricity market data of New Zealand. The results presented in this paper show that for space heating application significant advantages could be obtained using PCM built structures. These positive impacts include peak load shifting, energy conservation and reduction in peak demand for network line companies and potential reduction in electricity consumption and savings for residential customers. This paper uses a testing facility that consists of two identically designed and shaped offices built at Tamaki Campus location of the University of Auckland, New Zealand. The walls and ceilings of one office are finished with ordinary gypsum boards while the interior of the other office is finished with PCM impregnated gypsum boards. Controlled heating facility is provided in both the offices for maintaining temperature within the range of human comfort. This facility is equipped with advanced data acquisition equipment for data monitoring and archiving both locally within the offices and also remotely. Through actual observations and analysis this paper demonstrates two major impacts of DSM. First, the application of phase change material (PCM) in building environment enabling efficient thermal storage to achieve some reduction in the overall electrical energy

  17. Assessment of demand for natural gas from the electricity sector in India

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shukla, P.R.; Dhar, Subash; Victor, David G.

    2009-01-01

    Electricity sector is among the key users of natural gas. The sustained electricity deficit and environment policies have added to an already rising demand for gas. This paper tries to understand gas demand in future from electricity sector. This paper models the future demand for gas in India from...... the electricity sector under alternative scenarios for the period 2005–2025, using bottom-up ANSWER MARKAL model. The scenarios are differentiated by alternate economic growth projections and policies related to coal reforms, infrastructure choices and local environment. The results across scenarios show that gas...... competes with coal as a base-load option if price difference is below US $ 4 per MBtu. At higher price difference gas penetrates only the peak power market. Gas demand is lower in the high economic growth scenario, since electricity sector is more flexible in substitution of primary energy. Gas demand...

  18. Peak-interviewet

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Raalskov, Jesper; Warming-Rasmussen, Bent

    Peak-interviewet er en særlig effektiv metode til at gøre ubevidste menneskelige ressourcer bevidste. Fokuspersonen (den interviewede) interviewes om en selvvalgt, personlig succesoplevelse. Terapeuten/coachen (intervieweren) spørger ind til processen, som ledte hen til denne succes. Herved afdæk...... fokuspersonen ønsker at tage op (nye mål eller nye processer). Nærværende workingpaper beskriver, hvad der menes med et peak-interview, peakinterviwets teoretiske fundament samt metodikken til at foretage et tillidsfuldt og effektiv peak-interview....

  19. Demand-side management pricing options in electric utilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sardana, P.; Herman, P.

    1990-01-01

    In 1989 Ontario Hydro implemented optional time-of-use (TOU) rates at the wholesale level for all municipal utilities in the province. At the same time, mandatory TOU rates were implemented for large users (customers with loads in excess of 5 MW) served by municipal utilities and Ontario Hydro's direct customers. To fully explore the potential of rate structures as demand-side management (DSM) tools, Ontario Hydro retained a consulting firm to carry out a survey of innovative rate structures in other jurisdications. The survey was intended to identify: the status quo of rate structures in other jurisdictions that were designed specifically to encourage DSM; a profile of the cost basis of the rate structures, for example whether traditional embedded cost of service analyses or contentious methods such as marginal cost pricing were used; whether innovative rates have been successful, and customer reactions and attitudes; and how innovative rates fit into the overall strategy of the utilities. It was found that TOU, interruptible and end-use targeted rates are the rate structures of choice for many utilities. Most are concerned with deferring capacity, reducing peak demand, and shifting load out of peak periods. Most utilities report success with their programs and satisfaction with the present form of the programs. 5 tabs

  20. Demand-side management: The perspective of a combination utility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Packard, C.P.

    1993-01-01

    During the 1980's, Baltimore Gas ampersand Electric (BG ampersand E) met part of the rapid growth in demand for electricity in its service territory by implementing cost-effective demand-side management (DSM) programs--specifically, peak shaving and load shifting strategies. BG ampersand E's focus in the 1990's has been expanded to include all DSM options with an increasing emphasis on those which promote overall 1 energy efficiency or strategic conservation. This change in focus is being driven by Federal legislation, state regulatory requirements and the perceived potential benefits for both the customer and the Company. Current activities related to DSM include involvement in a Collaborative Process to design cost-effective electric and gas conservation programs for all customer classes--low-income, residential, commercial and industrial. Program design consists of four steps: (1) data gathering and technology assessment; (2) development of program concepts; (3) detailed program design and (4) monitoring and evaluation. Significant reductions in the projected peaks as well as in sales in future years are the anticipated results of our efforts. As a combination utility, unique opportunities and challenges face BG ampersand E: fuel switching, eligibility of non-full requirements customers, and energy options for customers

  1. Automated Peak Picking and Peak Integration in Macromolecular NMR Spectra Using AUTOPSY

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koradi, Reto; Billeter, Martin; Engeli, Max; Güntert, Peter; Wüthrich, Kurt

    1998-12-01

    A new approach for automated peak picking of multidimensional protein NMR spectra with strong overlap is introduced, which makes use of the program AUTOPSY (automatedpeak picking for NMRspectroscopy). The main elements of this program are a novel function for local noise level calculation, the use of symmetry considerations, and the use of lineshapes extracted from well-separated peaks for resolving groups of strongly overlapping peaks. The algorithm generates peak lists with precise chemical shift and integral intensities, and a reliability measure for the recognition of each peak. The results of automated peak picking of NOESY spectra with AUTOPSY were tested in combination with the combined automated NOESY cross peak assignment and structure calculation routine NOAH implemented in the program DYANA. The quality of the resulting structures was found to be comparable with those from corresponding data obtained with manual peak picking.

  2. Empirical estimation of per capita brandy demand in Armenia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S.A. Movsisyan

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The empirical estimations were based on linear and double-log regression models, which identified the factors influencing the average per capita brandy demand in Armenia. The model was estimated using quarterly time-series data on per capita brandy consumption, disposable income, prices of various alcoholic beverages for 1997–2015 periods. This is quantitative study based on secondary annual, quarterly and monthly data, and 5% significance level. The average annual per capita brandy consumption data for 1997–2007 periods was obtained from WHO's website, whereas the 2008–2015 data was extracted from the National Statistical Service of the Republic of Armenia. For annual, quarterly and monthly periods from 1997 through 2015, the price data related to various alcoholic beverages, consumer price index were provided in NSS statistical publications of “Socio-Economic Situation of RA”, ”Consumer price indexes (prices in the Republic of Armenia”, “Prices and tariffs in the Republic of Armenia”. For 1997–2015 periods, the average monthly per capita monetary income data was obtained from “Living Standards of Population and Social Sphere” section of statistical yearbooks. The latter substituted the average per capita monthly disposable income data, since these data were unavailable. Meantime, since the data included numerous years, therefore, the nominal price and income data were adjusted for inflation using consumer price index with 2005 as base year. In conclusion, the average real prices of wine and vodka were statistically significant determinants of the average per capita brandy demand in Armenia, and the demand for brandy was inelastic.

  3. Automated Dynamic Demand Response Implementation on a Micro-grid

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kuppannagari, Sanmukh R.; Kannan, Rajgopal; Chelmis, Charalampos; Prasanna, Viktor K.

    2016-11-16

    In this paper, we describe a system for real-time automated Dynamic and Sustainable Demand Response with sparse data consumption prediction implemented on the University of Southern California campus microgrid. Supply side approaches to resolving energy supply-load imbalance do not work at high levels of renewable energy penetration. Dynamic Demand Response (D2R) is a widely used demand-side technique to dynamically adjust electricity consumption during peak load periods. Our D2R system consists of accurate machine learning based energy consumption forecasting models that work with sparse data coupled with fast and sustainable load curtailment optimization algorithms that provide the ability to dynamically adapt to changing supply-load imbalances in near real-time. Our Sustainable DR (SDR) algorithms attempt to distribute customer curtailment evenly across sub-intervals during a DR event and avoid expensive demand peaks during a few sub-intervals. It also ensures that each customer is penalized fairly in order to achieve the targeted curtailment. We develop near linear-time constant-factor approximation algorithms along with Polynomial Time Approximation Schemes (PTAS) for SDR curtailment that minimizes the curtailment error defined as the difference between the target and achieved curtailment values. Our SDR curtailment problem is formulated as an Integer Linear Program that optimally matches customers to curtailment strategies during a DR event while also explicitly accounting for customer strategy switching overhead as a constraint. We demonstrate the results of our D2R system using real data from experiments performed on the USC smartgrid and show that 1) our prediction algorithms can very accurately predict energy consumption even with noisy or missing data and 2) our curtailment algorithms deliver DR with extremely low curtailment errors in the 0.01-0.05 kWh range.

  4. The management of the household demand for electricity: a review of 30 years of experiments around the world

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lesgards, V.; Frachet, L.

    2012-01-01

    Since the end of 1970's, experiments to test the impact of providing information, then of variable pricing, on the demand for electricity by households have developed considerably around the world. Initially undertaken in the USA and in the UK, where they analysed the impact of consumer information on overall demand, after the year 2000 these pilot efforts have been extended to most OECD member countries and aim too to reduce peak demand with appropriate price incentives. In recent years methodological improvements have been made in establishing the cause and effect relationship between these stimuli and the induced modification in consumption (internal validity). On top of methodological gains, the analysis of these experiments reveals some salient characteristics of the residential consumers' behaviour: the absence of any tangible and durable impact of solely using information on demand, the lasting incentive effect of variable pricing on reducing consumption at peak times, often creating a trend, as well as a strong heterogeneity of household reactions to these different stimuli. (authors)

  5. Monthly Electrical Energy Overview December 2016

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2017-01-01

    This publication presents the electricity characteristics and noteworthy developments in France every month: consumption, generation, renewable energies, cross-border trades and transmission system developments, along with feedback on the highlights affecting this data. This issue presents the key figures for December 2016. Demand in December 2016 was higher by more than 13% compared to December 2015, due to the significantly lower temperatures. The balance of exchanges was in favour of imports for the first time since February 2012. The December overview is published in the same time as the 2016 annual electricity report (http://bilan-electrique-2016.rte-france.com/). You will find there the analysis of the whole year. Adjusted electricity demand remained unchanged. Fossil fuel thermal generation reached 7.4 TWh, its highest level since February 2012. Wind power production was low, with an average wind load factor of around 17%. The monthly balance of French exchanges was in favour of imports, which had not happened since February 2012. 25 new installations went into service in December 2016

  6. An assessment of the reliability of the Ontario electricity system : 18-month outlook from April 2004 to September 2005

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2004-01-01

    This report presents a resource assessment by the Independent Electricity Market Operator (IMO) for the 18-month period from April 2004 to September 2005. It is based on the IMO's forecast of electricity demand. The information was provided by power generators in Ontario. The outlook for the electricity system has improved due to the return to service of 3 nuclear units and the addition of more than 700 MW of generation. The return to service of the nuclear units has decreased Ontario's reliance on imports to help meet energy demand in the province. The shutdown of 1150 MW of coal-fired generation at Lakeview Thermal Generating Station in Mississauga emphasizes the importance of improving transmission and generation capacity in the Toronto area. This report also includes updated values for existing resource scenarios and planned resource scenarios. The reliability of Ontario's transmission system was also assessed along with the adequacy of the existing resource to meet the forecast demand. The existing installed generation resources include 5 nuclear stations generating 10,831 MW of electricity, 5 coal stations generating 7,564 MW of electricity, 22 oil and gas fired stations generating 4,364 MW of electricity, 61 hydroelectric stations generating 7,676 MW of electricity, and 2 other stations generating 66 MW of electricity. Although the existing resource scenario is better than in previous reports, imports will be required under extreme weather conditions to help meet electricity demand in Ontario during peak periods. 21 tabs., 10 figs

  7. Impact of Scheduling Flexibility on Demand Profile Flatness and User Inconvenience in Residential Smart Grid System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Naveed Ul Hassan

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this paper is to study the impact of scheduling flexibility on both demand profile flatness and user inconvenience in residential smart grid systems. Temporal variations in energy consumption by end users result in peaks and troughs in the aggregated demand profile. In a residential smart grid, some of these peaks and troughs can be eliminated through appropriate load balancing algorithms. However, load balancing requires user participation by allowing the grid to re-schedule some of their loads. In general, more scheduling flexibility can result in more demand profile flatness, however the resulting inconvenience to users would also increase. In this paper, our objective is to help the grid determine an appropriate amount of scheduling flexibility that it should demand from users, based on which, proper incentives can be designed. We consider three different types of scheduling flexibility (delay, advance scheduling and flexible re-scheduling in flexible loads and develop both optimal and sub-optimal scheduling algorithms. We discuss their implementation in centralized and distributed manners. We also identify the existence of a saturation point. Beyond this saturation point, any increase in scheduling flexibility does not significantly affect the flatness of the demand profile while user inconvenience continues to increase. Moreover, full participation of all the households is not required since increasing user participation only marginally increases demand profile flatness.

  8. A new record peak luminosity for the LHC

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN Bulletin

    2010-01-01

    Two weeks of dedicated machine development paid off last weekend when the LHC ran for physics with three nominal intensity (∼1011 protons) bunches in each beam.   This brought a new record peak luminosity of around 8×1029 cm-2 s-1, and allowed the LHC to double the integrated luminosity delivered to the experiments since 30 March from 16 to 32 inverse nanobarns over the weekend. After a few more fills in this configuration, the number of bunches will be raised to six per beam, which will in turn allow the peak luminosity to break the 1030 cm-2 s-1 barrier for the first time, well on the way to achieving the 2010 objective of 1032 cm-2 s-1. This peak luminosity goal requires 800 nominal bunches per beam squeezed to a beta of 3.5 metres. The plan for 2011 is to run the LHC in this configuration over about 10 months, thus achieving the objective of recording one inverse femtobarn of data in total. The machine development period also allowed the TOTEM detectors to be set up with 45...

  9. Maximizing the peak production rate in off-line comprehensive two-dimensional liquid chromatography with mass spectrometry detection

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Eeltink, S.; Dolman, S.; Ursem, M.; Swart, R.; McLeod, F.; Schoenmakers, P.J.

    2009-01-01

    This article describes an optimization strategy to obtain the best possible performance in the shortest analysis time—called the peak production rate—for comprehensive off-line two-dimensional liquid chromatography. The demands on column technology (particle size and column length) and LC conditions

  10. On the relation between the mean and variance of delay in dynamic queues with random capacity and demand

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fosgerau, Mogens

    2010-01-01

    This paper investigates the distribution of delays during a repeatedly occurring demand peak in a congested facility with random capacity and demand, such as an airport or an urban road. Congestion is described in the form of a dynamic queue using the Vickrey bottleneck model and assuming Nash...

  11. Assessing the suitability of input-output analysis for enhancing our understanding of potential economic effects of Peak Oil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kerschner, Christian; Hubacek, Klaus

    2009-01-01

    Given recent developments on energy markets and skyrocketing oil prices, we argue for an urgent need to study the potential effects of world oil production reaching a maximum (Peak Oil) in order to facilitate the development of adaptation policies. We consider input-output (IO) modelling as a powerful tool for this purpose. However, the standard Leontief type model implicitly assumes that all necessary inputs to satisfy a given demand can and will be supplied. This is problematic if the availability of certain key inputs becomes restricted and it is therefore only of limited usefulness for the study of the phenomenon of Peak Oil. Hence this paper firstly reviews two alternative modelling tools within the IO framework: supply-driven and mixed models. The former has been severely criticised for its problematic assumption of perfect factor substitution and perfect elasticity of demand as revealed by Oosterhaven [Oosterhaven J. On the plausibility of the supply-driven IO model. J Reg Sci 1988; 28:203-17. ]. The supply-constrained model on the other hand proved well suited to analyse the quantity dimension of Peak Oil and is therefore applied empirically in the second part of the paper, using data for the UK, Japanese and Chilean economy. Results show how differences in net-oil exporting and net-oil importing countries are clearly visible in terms of final demand. Industries, most affected in all countries, include transportation, electricity production and financial and trade services. (author)

  12. Demand elasticity of oil in Barbados

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moore, Alvon, E-mail: armoore@centralbank.org.bb [Economist, Central Bank of Barbados, Toms Adams Financial Centre, Bridgetown (Barbados)

    2011-06-15

    The importation of oil is a significant component of Barbados' imports, rising from 7% of imports in 1998 to over 20% in 2009. This increase has impacted greatly on the level of foreign reserves. As a price-taker, relying entirely on imported oil for our energy needs could prove a continuous drain on the economy. With a view to formulating an appropriate energy policy for Barbados, this paper analyses the demand for oil using monthly data from 1998 to 2009. The paper estimates the elasticities of demand for oil by employing single equation cointegration approach and comparing the results with countries that rely heavily on imported oil and whose policy objective are to alter their energy structure to rely less on imported oil. The results show that the demand for oil imports is price inelastic in the long run. The consumption of oil is responsive to past consumption, prices, income, electricity consumption and the number of appliances imported in the short-run. A policy framework to reduce the use of oil for electricity consumption via alternative energy sources should be considered and the taxation of oil imports given its elasticity is a good source of revenue. - Highlights: > Demand for oil is price inelastic in the long-run (-0.552). > The relationship between oil demand and income is insignificant in the long run. > As electricity consumption increases by 1%, the demand for oil rises by 1.43%. > Need to determine if investments in alternative sources can offset demand for oil. > Investment in alternative resources may be required before gains are realised.

  13. Analysis of PG&E`s residential end-use metered data to improve electricity demand forecasts -- final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eto, J.H.; Moezzi, M.M.

    1993-12-01

    This report summarizes findings from a unique project to improve the end-use electricity load shape and peak demand forecasts made by the Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PG&E) and the California Energy Commission (CEC). First, the direct incorporation of end-use metered data into electricity demand forecasting models is a new approach that has only been made possible by recent end-use metering projects. Second, and perhaps more importantly, the joint-sponsorship of this analysis has led to the development of consistent sets of forecasting model inputs. That is, the ability to use a common data base and similar data treatment conventions for some of the forecasting inputs frees forecasters to concentrate on those differences (between their competing forecasts) that stem from real differences of opinion, rather than differences that can be readily resolved with better data. The focus of the analysis is residential space cooling, which represents a large and growing demand in the PG&E service territory. Using five years of end-use metered, central air conditioner data collected by PG&E from over 300 residences, we developed consistent sets of new inputs for both PG&E`s and CEC`s end-use load shape forecasting models. We compared the performance of the new inputs both to the inputs previously used by PG&E and CEC, and to a second set of new inputs developed to take advantage of a recently added modeling option to the forecasting model. The testing criteria included ability to forecast total daily energy use, daily peak demand, and demand at 4 P.M. (the most frequent hour of PG&E`s system peak demand). We also tested the new inputs with the weather data used by PG&E and CEC in preparing their forecasts.

  14. Psychopathology and tobacco demand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farris, Samantha G; Aston, Elizabeth R; Zvolensky, Michael J; Abrantes, Ana M; Metrik, Jane

    2017-08-01

    Behavioral economic measurement of the relative value of tobacco (Cigarette Purchase Task; CPT) is used to examine individual differences in motivation for tobacco under certain contexts. Smokers with psychopathology, relative to those without, may demonstrate stronger demand for tobacco following a period of smoking deprivation, which could account for disparate rates of smoking and cessation among this subgroup. Participants (n=111) were community-recruited adult daily smokers who completed the CPT after a deprivation period of approximately 60min. Presence of psychopathology was assessed via clinical interview; 40.5% (n=45) of the sample met criteria for past-year psychological diagnosis. Specifically, 31.5% (n=35) had an emotional disorder (anxiety/depressive disorder), 17.1% (n=19) had a substance use disorder, and 19.1% of the sample had more than one disorder. Smokers with any psychopathology showed significantly higher intensity (demand at unrestricted cost; $0) and O max (peak expenditure for a drug) relative to smokers with no psychopathology. Intensity was significantly higher among smokers with an emotional disorder compared to those without. Smokers with a substance use disorder showed significantly higher intensity and O max , and lower elasticity, reflecting greater insensitivity to price increases. Having≥2 disorders was associated with higher intensity relative to having 1 or no disorders. Findings suggest that presence of psychopathology may be associated with greater and more persistent motivation to smoke. Future work is needed to explore the mechanism linking psychopathology to tobacco demand. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Impact of Uncoordinated Plug-in Electric Vehicle Charging on Residential Power Demand

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Muratori, Matteo [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2018-01-22

    Electrification of transport offers opportunities to increase energy security, reduce carbon emissions, and improve local air quality. Plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) are creating new connections between the transportation and electric sectors, and PEV charging will create opportunities and challenges in a system of growing complexity. Here, I use highly resolved models of residential power demand and PEV use to assess the impact of uncoordinated in-home PEV charging on residential power demand. While the increase in aggregate demand might be minimal even for high levels of PEV adoption, uncoordinated PEV charging could significantly change the shape of the aggregate residential demand, with impacts for electricity infrastructure, even at low adoption levels. Clustering effects in vehicle adoption at the local level might lead to high PEV concentrations even if overall adoption remains low, significantly increasing peak demand and requiring upgrades to the electricity distribution infrastructure. This effect is exacerbated when adopting higher in-home power charging.

  16. Impact of uncoordinated plug-in electric vehicle charging on residential power demand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muratori, Matteo

    2018-03-01

    Electrification of transport offers opportunities to increase energy security, reduce carbon emissions, and improve local air quality. Plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) are creating new connections between the transportation and electric sectors, and PEV charging will create opportunities and challenges in a system of growing complexity. Here, I use highly resolved models of residential power demand and PEV use to assess the impact of uncoordinated in-home PEV charging on residential power demand. While the increase in aggregate demand might be minimal even for high levels of PEV adoption, uncoordinated PEV charging could significantly change the shape of the aggregate residential demand, with impacts for electricity infrastructure, even at low adoption levels. Clustering effects in vehicle adoption at the local level might lead to high PEV concentrations even if overall adoption remains low, significantly increasing peak demand and requiring upgrades to the electricity distribution infrastructure. This effect is exacerbated when adopting higher in-home power charging.

  17. How does economic theory explain the Hubbert peak oil model?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reynes, F.; Okullo, S.; Hofkes, M.

    2010-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to provide an economic foundation for bell shaped oil extraction trajectories, consistent with Hubbert's peak oil model. There are several reasons why it is important to get insight into the economic foundations of peak oil. As production decisions are expected to depend on economic factors, a better comprehension of the economic foundations of oil extraction behaviour is fundamental to predict production and price over the coming years. The investigation made in this paper helps us to get a better understanding of the different mechanisms that may be at work in the case of OPEC and non-OPEC producers. We show that profitability is the main driver behind production plans. Changes in profitability due to divergent trajectories between costs and oil price may give rise to a Hubbert production curve. For this result we do not need to introduce a demand or an exploration effect as is generally assumed in the literature.

  18. Coping with unexpected oil demand movements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    2004-01-01

    Continuous upward revisions to world oil demand projections for 2003 and 2004 are compared with the downward revisions that took place in 1998 and 1999, following the 1997 Asian economic crisis. Demand leads supply, in the current case, resulting in a time-lag in the whole supply chain, while supply led demand half a decade ago, with the OECD's commercial stocks reaching record highs. Recent months have seen a reversal of the longstanding inverse relationship between the United States of America's commercial crude oil stock levels and crude prices, and they are now moving in parallel. The fact that the US market is now adequately or even well supplied means that factors other than inventory levels are causing the present high prices. These factors are briefly outlined. OPEC is doing everything it can to maintain market stability, with prices at levels acceptable to producers and consumers. The agreement reached in Beirut on 3 June is the latest example of this. (Author)

  19. Impact of Month of Birth on the Risk of Development of Autoimmune Addison's Disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pazderska, Agnieszka; Fichna, Marta; Mitchell, Anna L; Napier, Catherine M; Gan, Earn; Ruchała, Marek; Santibanez-Koref, Mauro; Pearce, Simon H

    2016-11-01

    The pathogenesis of autoimmune Addison's disease (AAD) is thought to be due to interplay of genetic, immune, and environmental factors. A month-of-birth effect, with increased risk for those born in autumn/winter months, has been described in autoimmune conditions such as type 1 diabetes and autoimmune thyroid disease. Month-of-birth effect was investigated in 2 independent cohorts of AAD subjects. The monthly distribution of birth in AAD patients was compared with that of the general population using the cosinor test. A total of 415 AAD subjects from the United Kingdom cohort were compared with 8 180 180 United Kingdom births, and 231 AAD subjects from the Polish cohort were compared with 2 421 384 Polish births. Association between month of birth and the susceptibility to AAD. In the entire cohort of AAD subjects, month-of-birth distribution analysis showed significant periodicity with peak of births in December and trough in May (P = .028). Analysis of the odds ratio distribution based on month of birth in 2 cohorts of patients with AAD versus the general population revealed a December peak and May trough, and January peak and July trough, in the United Kingdom and Polish cohorts, respectively. For the first time, we demonstrate that month of birth exerts an effect on the risk of developing AAD, with excess risk in individuals born in winter months and a protective effect when born in the summer. Exposure to seasonal viral infections in the perinatal period, coupled with vitamin D deficiency, could lead to dysregulation of innate immunity affecting the risk of developing AAD.

  20. Minimization of Impact from Electric Vehicle Supply Equipment to the Electric Grid Using a Dynamically Controlled Battery Bank for Peak Load Shaving

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Castello, Charles C [ORNL

    2013-01-01

    This research presents a comparison of two control systems for peak load shaving using local solar power generation (i.e., photovoltaic array) and local energy storage (i.e., battery bank). The purpose is to minimize load demand of electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE) on the electric grid. A static and dynamic control system is compared to decrease demand from EVSE. Static control of the battery bank is based on charging and discharging to the electric grid at fixed times. Dynamic control, with 15-minute resolution, forecasts EVSE load based on data analysis of collected data. In the proposed dynamic control system, the sigmoid function is used to shave peak loads while limiting scenarios that can quickly drain the battery bank. These control systems are applied to Oak Ridge National Laboratory s (ORNL) solar-assisted electric vehicle (EV) charging stations. This installation is composed of three independently grid-tied sub-systems: (1) 25 EVSE; (2) 47 kW photovoltaic (PV) array; and (3) 60 kWh battery bank. The dynamic control system achieved the greatest peak load shaving, up to 34% on a cloudy day and 38% on a sunny day. The static control system was not ideal; peak load shaving was 14.6% on a cloudy day and 12.7% on a sunny day. Simulations based on ORNL data shows solar-assisted EV charging stations combined with the proposed dynamic battery control system can negate up to 89% of EVSE load demand on sunny days.

  1. Demand response from the non-domestic sector: Early UK experiences and future opportunities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grünewald, Philipp; Torriti, Jacopo

    2013-01-01

    Demand response is believed by some to become a major contributor towards system balancing in future electricity networks. Shifting or reducing demand at critical moments can reduce the need for generation capacity, help with the integration of renewables, support more efficient system operation and thereby potentially lead to cost and carbon reductions for the entire energy system. In this paper we review the nature of the response resource of consumers from different non-domestic sectors in the UK, based on extensive half hourly demand profiles and observed demand responses. We further explore the potential to increase the demand response capacity through changes in the regulatory and market environment. The analysis suggests that present demand response measures tend to stimulate stand-by generation capacity in preference to load shifting and we propose that extended response times may favour load based demand response, especially in sectors with significant thermal loads. - Highlights: • Empirical demand response data from non-domestic sector evaluated. • Load profiles suggest strong sector dependence on availability response at system peak. • Majority of aggregated demand response still stems from stand-by generation, not from demand turn down. • Scope for substantial increase in demand response capacity if response times were extended

  2. EIA sees US gas grid meeting demand in 2000

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1992-01-01

    This paper reports that interstate natural gas pipelines should be able to meet record US natural gas demand by 2000, Energy Information Administration predicts in a new study. The EIA study examined the capacity of 42 long lines, average utilization of the pipeline grid, and recently completed or planned capacity expansions. EIA the significant additional volumes could be transported into some major consuming areas during off-peak periods

  3. Asset Substitution, Money Demand, and the Inflation Process in Brazil.

    OpenAIRE

    Calomiris, Charles W; Domowitz, Ian

    1989-01-01

    Various domestic financial assets in Brazil have provided relatively liquid nonmonetary alternatives. Monthly money demand estimates, which include domestic asset opportunity costs and take account of T-bill repurchase agreements in a dynamic error-correction model, demonstrate the importance of domestic substitutes in explaining money holdings. Money demand appears responsive and stable. Moreover, T-bills and indexed bonds have acted as an alternative to central bank liabilities as a source ...

  4. How Tobacco Control Measures and Smuggling Influence Demand ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    How Tobacco Control Measures and Smuggling Influence Demand in Panama. Panama's tobacco epidemic demonstrates ... Their goal: establish a new threshold for increasing the luxury tax on tobacco products, including cigarettes, based on the monthly evolution of cigarette sales. The researchers will survey brands in ...

  5. Ultrasonic Transducer Peak-to-Peak Optical Measurement

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pavel Skarvada

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Possible optical setups for measurement of the peak-to-peak value of an ultrasonic transducer are described in this work. The Michelson interferometer with the calibrated nanopositioner in reference path and laser Doppler vibrometer were used for the basic measurement of vibration displacement. Langevin type of ultrasonic transducer is used for the purposes of Electro-Ultrasonic Nonlinear Spectroscopy (EUNS. Parameters of produced mechanical vibration have to been well known for EUNS. Moreover, a monitoring of mechanical vibration frequency shift with a mass load and sample-transducer coupling is important for EUNS measurement.

  6. Further examination of the temporal stability of alcohol demand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Acuff, Samuel F; Murphy, James G

    2017-08-01

    Demand, or the amount of a substance consumed as a function of price, is a central dependent measure in behavioral economic research and represents the relative valuation of a substance. Although demand is often utilized as an index of substance use severity and is assumed to be relatively stable, recent experimental and clinical research has identified conditions in which demand can be manipulated, such as through craving and stress inductions, and treatment. Our study examines the 1-month reliability of the alcohol purchase task in a sample of heavy drinking college students. We also analyzed reliability in subgroup of individuals whose consumption decreased, increased, or stayed the same over the 1-month period, and in individuals with moderate/severe Alcohol Use Disorder (AUD) vs. those with no/mild AUD. Reliability was moderate in the full sample, high in the group with stable consumption, and did not differ appreciably between AUD groups. Observed indices and indices derived from an exponentiated equation (Koffarnus et al., 2015) were generally comparable, although P max observed had very low reliability. Area under the curve, O max derived, and essential value showed the greatest reliability in the full sample (rs=0.75-0.77). These results provide evidence for the relative stability over time of demand and across AUD groups, particularly in those whose consumption remains stable. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. How to Estimate Demand Charge Savings from PV on Commercial Buildings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gagnon, Pieter J [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Bird, Lori A [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2017-09-28

    Rooftop photovoltaic (PV) systems are compensated through retail electricity tariffs - and for commercial and industrial customers, these are typically comprised of three components: a fixed monthly charge, energy charges, and demand charges. Of these, PV's ability to reduce demand charges has traditionally been the most difficult to estimate. In this fact sheet we explain the basics of demand charges, and provide a new method that a potential customer or PV developer can use to estimate a range of potential demand charge savings for a proposed PV system. These savings can then be added to other project cash flows, in assessing the project's financial performance.

  8. Demand elasticity of oil in Barbados

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moore, Alvon

    2011-01-01

    The importation of oil is a significant component of Barbados' imports, rising from 7% of imports in 1998 to over 20% in 2009. This increase has impacted greatly on the level of foreign reserves. As a price-taker, relying entirely on imported oil for our energy needs could prove a continuous drain on the economy. With a view to formulating an appropriate energy policy for Barbados, this paper analyses the demand for oil using monthly data from 1998 to 2009. The paper estimates the elasticities of demand for oil by employing single equation cointegration approach and comparing the results with countries that rely heavily on imported oil and whose policy objective are to alter their energy structure to rely less on imported oil. The results show that the demand for oil imports is price inelastic in the long run. The consumption of oil is responsive to past consumption, prices, income, electricity consumption and the number of appliances imported in the short-run. A policy framework to reduce the use of oil for electricity consumption via alternative energy sources should be considered and the taxation of oil imports given its elasticity is a good source of revenue. - Highlights: → Demand for oil is price inelastic in the long-run (-0.552). → The relationship between oil demand and income is insignificant in the long run. → As electricity consumption increases by 1%, the demand for oil rises by 1.43%. → Need to determine if investments in alternative sources can offset demand for oil. → Investment in alternative resources may be required before gains are realised.

  9. An Airline-Based Multilevel Analysis of Airfare Elasticity for Passenger Demand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castelli, Lorenzo; Ukovich, Walter; Pesenti, Raffaele

    2003-01-01

    Price elasticity of passenger demand for a specific airline is estimated. The main drivers affecting passenger demand for air transportation are identified. First, an Ordinary Least Squares regression analysis is performed. Then, a multilevel analysis-based methodology to investigate the pattern of variation of price elasticity of demand among the various routes of the airline under study is proposed. The experienced daily passenger demands on each fare-class are grouped for each considered route. 9 routes were studied for the months of February and May in years from 1999 to 2002, and two fare-classes were defined (business and economy). The analysis has revealed that the airfare elasticity of passenger demand significantly varies among the different routes of the airline.

  10. High fat diet promotes achievement of peak bone mass in young rats

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Malvi, Parmanand; Piprode, Vikrant; Chaube, Balkrishna; Pote, Satish T. [National Centre for Cell Science, Savitribai Phule Pune University Campus, Ganeshkhind, Pune 411 007 (India); Mittal, Monika; Chattopadhyay, Naibedya [Division of Endocrinology and Center for Research in Anabolic Skeletal Targets in Health and Illness (ASTHI), CSIR-Central Drug Research Institute, Jankipuram Extension, Sitapur Road, Lucknow 226 031 (India); Wani, Mohan R. [National Centre for Cell Science, Savitribai Phule Pune University Campus, Ganeshkhind, Pune 411 007 (India); Bhat, Manoj Kumar, E-mail: manojkbhat@nccs.res.in [National Centre for Cell Science, Savitribai Phule Pune University Campus, Ganeshkhind, Pune 411 007 (India)

    2014-12-05

    Highlights: • High fat diet helps in achieving peak bone mass at younger age. • Shifting from high fat to normal diet normalizes obese parameters. • Bone parameters are sustained even after withdrawal of high fat diet. - Abstract: The relationship between obesity and bone is complex. Epidemiological studies demonstrate positive as well as negative correlation between obesity and bone health. In the present study, we investigated the impact of high fat diet-induced obesity on peak bone mass. After 9 months of feeding young rats with high fat diet, we observed obesity phenotype in rats with increased body weight, fat mass, serum triglycerides and cholesterol. There were significant increases in serum total alkaline phosphatase, bone mineral density and bone mineral content. By micro-computed tomography (μ-CT), we observed a trend of better trabecular bones with respect to their microarchitecture and geometry. This indicated that high fat diet helps in achieving peak bone mass and microstructure at younger age. We subsequently shifted rats from high fat diet to normal diet for 6 months and evaluated bone/obesity parameters. It was observed that after shifting rats from high fat diet to normal diet, fat mass, serum triglycerides and cholesterol were significantly decreased. Interestingly, the gain in bone mineral density, bone mineral content and trabecular bone parameters by HFD was retained even after body weight and obesity were normalized. These results suggest that fat rich diet during growth could accelerate achievement of peak bone mass that is sustainable even after withdrawal of high fat diet.

  11. High fat diet promotes achievement of peak bone mass in young rats

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Malvi, Parmanand; Piprode, Vikrant; Chaube, Balkrishna; Pote, Satish T.; Mittal, Monika; Chattopadhyay, Naibedya; Wani, Mohan R.; Bhat, Manoj Kumar

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • High fat diet helps in achieving peak bone mass at younger age. • Shifting from high fat to normal diet normalizes obese parameters. • Bone parameters are sustained even after withdrawal of high fat diet. - Abstract: The relationship between obesity and bone is complex. Epidemiological studies demonstrate positive as well as negative correlation between obesity and bone health. In the present study, we investigated the impact of high fat diet-induced obesity on peak bone mass. After 9 months of feeding young rats with high fat diet, we observed obesity phenotype in rats with increased body weight, fat mass, serum triglycerides and cholesterol. There were significant increases in serum total alkaline phosphatase, bone mineral density and bone mineral content. By micro-computed tomography (μ-CT), we observed a trend of better trabecular bones with respect to their microarchitecture and geometry. This indicated that high fat diet helps in achieving peak bone mass and microstructure at younger age. We subsequently shifted rats from high fat diet to normal diet for 6 months and evaluated bone/obesity parameters. It was observed that after shifting rats from high fat diet to normal diet, fat mass, serum triglycerides and cholesterol were significantly decreased. Interestingly, the gain in bone mineral density, bone mineral content and trabecular bone parameters by HFD was retained even after body weight and obesity were normalized. These results suggest that fat rich diet during growth could accelerate achievement of peak bone mass that is sustainable even after withdrawal of high fat diet

  12. A stochastic method for battery sizing with uninterruptible-power and demand shift capabilities in PV (photovoltaic) systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tan, Chee Wei; Green, Tim C.; Hernandez-Aramburo, Carlos A.

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents a stochastic simulation using Monte Carlo technique to size a battery to meet dual objectives of demand shift at peak electricity cost times and outage protection in BIPV (building integrated photovoltaic) systems. Both functions require battery storage and the sizing of battery using numerical optimization is popularly used. However, the weather conditions, outage events and demand peaks are not deterministic in nature. Therefore, the sizing of battery storage capacity should also be based on a probabilistic approach. The Monte Carlo simulation is a rigorous method to sizing BIPV system as it takes into account a real building load profiles, the weather information and the local historical outage distribution. The simulation is split into seasonal basis for the analysis of demand shifting and outage events in order to match the seasonal weather conditions and load profiles. Five configurations of PV (photovoltaic) are assessed that cover different areas and orientations. The simulation output includes the predicted PV energy yield, the amount of energy required for demand management and outage event. Therefore, consumers can base sizing decisions on the historical data and local risk of outage statistics and the success rate of meeting the demand shift required. Finally, the economic evaluations together with the sensitivity analysis and the assessment of customers' outage cost are discussed.

  13. Prediction on the Peak of the CO2 Emissions in China Using the STIRPAT Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li Li

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate change has threatened our economic, environmental, and social sustainability seriously. The world has taken active measures in dealing with climate change to mitigate carbon emissions. Predicting the carbon emissions peak has become a global focus, as well as a leading target for China’s low carbon development. China has promised its carbon emissions will have peaked by around 2030, with the intention of peaking earlier. Scholars generally have studied the influencing factors of carbon emissions. However, research on carbon emissions peaks is not extensive. Therefore, by setting a low scenario, a middle scenario, and a high scenario, this paper predicts China’s carbon emissions peak from 2015 to 2035 based on the data from 1998 to 2014 using the Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence, and Technology (STIRPAT model. The results show that in the low, middle, and high scenarios China will reach its carbon emissions peak in 2024, 2027, and 2030, respectively. Thus, this paper puts forward the large-scale application of technology innovation to improve energy efficiency and optimize energy structure and supply and demand. China should use industrial policy and human capital investment to stimulate the rapid development of low carbon industries and modern agriculture and service industries to help China to reach its carbon emissions peak by around 2030 or earlier.

  14. THE COMPETITIVE DEMANDS OF ELITE MALE RINK HOCKEY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aladino Fernández

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study was to simulate the activity pattern of rink hockey by designing a specific skate test (ST to study the energy expenditure and metabolic responses to this intermittent high-intensity exercise and extrapolate the results from the test to competition. Six rink hockey players performed, in three phases, the 20-metre multi-stage shuttle roller skate test, a tournament match and the ST. Heart rate was monitored in all three phases. Blood lactate, oxygen consumption, ventilation and respiratory exchange ratio were also recorded during the ST. Peak HR was 190.7±7.2 beats · min-1. There were no differences in peak HR between the three tests. Mean HR was similar between the ST and the match (86% and 87% of HRmax, respectively. Peak and mean ventilation averaged 111.0±8.8 L · min-1 and 70.3±14.0 L · min-1 (60% of VEmax, respectively. VO2max was 56.3±8.4 mL · kg-1 · min-1, and mean oxygen consumption was 40.9±7.9 mL · kg-1 · min-1 (70% of VO2max. Maximum blood lactate concentration was 7.2±1.3 mmol · L-1. ST yielded an energy expenditure of 899.1±232.9 kJ, and energy power was 59.9±15.5 kJ · min-1. These findings suggest that the ST is suitable for estimating the physiological demands of competitive rink hockey, which places a heavy demand on the aerobic and anaerobic systems, and requires high energy consumption.

  15. Storage coordination and peak-shaving operation in urban areas with high renewable penetration

    OpenAIRE

    Voulis, N.; Warnier, Martijn; Brazier, F.M.

    2017-01-01

    As renewable power generation gains importance, balancing of power demand and supply becomes more and more challenging. This paper addresses this challenge by exploring the potential of individually-owned storage units in decentralised power systems with a high share of renewables. The focus is on the influence of coordination and peak-shaving operation of these individual units in realistic urban areas. Currently extensive amount of research exits on specific applications related to storage ...

  16. Responses of Lower-Body Power and Match Running Demands Following Long-Haul Travel in International Rugby Sevens Players.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitchell, John A; Pumpa, Kate L; Pyne, David B

    2017-03-01

    Mitchell, JA, Pumpa, KL, and Pyne, DB. Responses of lowerbody power and match running demands after long-haul travel in international rugby sevens players. J Strength Cond Res 31(3): 686-695, 2017-This study determined the effect of long-haul (>5 hours) travel on lower-body power and match running demands in international rugby sevens players. Lower-body power was assessed in 22 male international rugby sevens players (age 21.7 ± 2.7 years, mass 89.0 ± 6.7 kg, stature 180.5 ± 6.2 cm; mean ± SD) monitored over 17 rugby sevens tournaments. A countermovement jump was used to monitor lower-body power (peak and mean power) over repeated three week travel and competition periods (pretravel, posttravel, and posttournament). Small decreases were evident in peak power after both short and long-haul travel (-4.0%, ±3.2%; mean, ±90% confidence limits) with further reductions in peak and mean power posttournament (-4.5%, ±2.3% and -3.8%, ±1.5%) culminating in a moderate decrease in peak power overall (-7.4%, ±4.0%). A subset of 12 players (completing a minimum of 8 tournaments) had the effects of match running demands assessed with lower-body power. In this subset, long-haul travel elicited a large decrease in lower-body peak (-9.4%, ±3.5%) and mean power (-5.6%, ±2.9%) over the monitoring period, with a small decrease (-4.3%, ±3.0% and -2.2%, ±1.7%) posttravel and moderate decrease (-5.4%, ±2.5% and -3.5%, ±1.9%) posttournament, respectively. Match running demands were monitored through global positioning system. In long-haul tournaments, the 12 players covered ∼13%, ±13% greater total distance (meter) and ∼11%, ±10% higher average game meters >5 m·s when compared with short-haul (rugby sevens tournaments after long-haul travel.

  17. Milton Hydro's Energy Drill Program : demand response based on behavioural responses to price signals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thorne, D.; Heeney, D.

    2006-01-01

    The Energy Drill Program is a demand response tool and economic instrument based on a fire drill protocol. The aim of the program is to reduce peak demand and emissions and improve system reliability and price volatility. This presentation provided details of an Energy Drill pilot program, conducted in Milton, Ontario. Customized approaches were used in the buildings partaking in the drill, which included the Milton Hydro Headquarters, the Robert Baldwin Public School, and a leisure centre. Building assessments inventoried building systems and equipment usage patterns. Pilot monitoring and evaluation was conducted through the use of checklists completed by marshals and building coordinators. Energy use data was tracked by Milton Hydro, and report cards were sent after each drill. A short-term drop in demand was observed in all the buildings, as well as overall reductions in peak period demand. Energy consumption data for all the buildings were provided. Results of the pilot program suggested that rotating the drills among participating buildings may prove to be a more effective strategy for the program to adopt in future. A greater emphasis on energy efficiency was also recommended. It was concluded that the eventual roll-out strategy should carefully consider the number and types of buildings involved in the program; internal commitment to the program; available resources; and timing for implementation. refs., tabs., figs

  18. Cut down the peak daytime demand for electricity at the residence; Jutaku ni okeru denryoku fuka heijunka

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ishihara, O. [Kumamoto University, Kumamoto (Japan). Faculty of Engineering

    1996-09-05

    For leveling of power load in small-scale buildings and houses, a test house with actual size was constructed in order to examine soil heat storage system using photovoltaic power generation system and nighttime power. A hundred of polycrystal silicone solar cells with about 5 kW and twenty of amorphous ones were fixed on the roof, to connect with commercial power source by the system interconnection having inverse power flow. For leveling of power load in the periods of heating and cooling, soil heat storage system was applied using nighttime power. Pipes for circulating cooling and heating water were embedded. Heat pump was operated only in the time zone of nighttime power, to obtain cooling and heating source for fan coil unit in the daytime. The sold power was larger than purchased power under continuous cooling condition for twelve hours in summer. Since cooling load was supplied from nighttime power with lower price, there was a large peak cut effect in the daytime. As a result of the tests using a house with actual size, the system was found to be applied practically both in summer and in winter. Effectiveness of peak cut of power load in summer was also provided. 7 refs., 10 figs., 2 tabs.

  19. Designing a Profit-Maximizing Critical Peak Pricing Scheme Considering the Payback Phenomenon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sung Chan Park

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Critical peak pricing (CPP is a demand response program that can be used to maximize profits for a load serving entity in a deregulated market environment. Like other such programs, however, CPP is not free from the payback phenomenon: a rise in consumption after a critical event. This payback has a negative effect on profits and thus must be appropriately considered when designing a CPP scheme. However, few studies have examined CPP scheme design considering payback. This study thus characterizes payback using three parameters (duration, amount, and pattern and examines payback effects on the optimal schedule of critical events and on the optimal peak rate for two specific payback patterns. This analysis is verified through numerical simulations. The results demonstrate the need to properly consider payback parameters when designing a profit-maximizing CPP scheme.

  20. A sizing method for stand-alone PV installations with variable demand

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Posadillo, R. [Grupo de Investigacion en Energias y Recursos Renovables, Dpto. de Fisica Aplicada, E.P.S., Universidad de Cordoba, Avda. Menendez Pidal s/n, 14004 Cordoba (Spain); Lopez Luque, R. [Grupo de Investigacion de Fisica Para las Energias y Recursos Renovables, Dpto. de Fisica Aplicada, Edificio C2 Campus de Rabanales, 14071 Cordoba (Spain)

    2008-05-15

    The practical applicability of the considerations made in a previous paper to characterize energy balances in stand-alone photovoltaic systems (SAPV) is presented. Given that energy balances were characterized based on monthly estimations, the method is appropriate for sizing installations with variable monthly demands and variable monthly panel tilt (for seasonal estimations). The method presented is original in that it is the only method proposed for this type of demand. The method is based on the rational utilization of daily solar radiation distribution functions. When exact mathematical expressions are not available, approximate empirical expressions can be used. The more precise the statistical characterization of the solar radiation on the receiver module, the more precise the sizing method given that the characterization will solely depend on the distribution function of the daily global irradiation on the tilted surface H{sub g{beta}}{sub i}. This method, like previous ones, uses the concept of loss of load probability (LLP) as a parameter to characterize system design and includes information on the standard deviation of this parameter ({sigma}{sub LLP}) as well as two new parameters: annual number of system failures (f) and the standard deviation of annual number of system failures ({sigma}{sub f}). This paper therefore provides an analytical method for evaluating and sizing stand-alone PV systems with variable monthly demand and panel inclination. The sizing method has also been applied in a practical manner. (author)

  1. California DREAMing: The design of residential demand responsive technology with people in mind

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peffer, Therese Evelyn

    Electrical utilities worldwide are exploring "demand response" programs to reduce electricity consumption during peak periods. Californian electrical utilities would like to pass the higher cost of peak demand to customers to offset costs, increase reliability, and reduce peak consumption. Variable pricing strategies require technology to communicate a dynamic price to customers and respond to that price. However, evidence from thermostat and energy display studies as well as research regarding energy-saving behaviors suggests that devices cannot effect residential demand response without the sanction and participation of people. This study developed several technologies to promote or enable residential demand response. First, along with a team of students and professors, I designed and tested the Demand Response Electrical Appliance Manager (DREAM). This wireless network of sensors, actuators, and controller with a user interface provides information to intelligently control a residential heating and cooling system and to inform people of their energy usage. We tested the system with computer simulation and in the laboratory and field. Secondly, as part of my contribution to the team, I evaluated machine-learning to predict a person's seasonal temperature preferences by analyzing existing data from office workers. The third part of the research involved developing an algorithm that generated temperature setpoints based on outdoor temperature. My study compared the simulated energy use using these setpoints to that using the setpoints of a programmable thermostat. Finally, I developed and tested a user interface for a thermostat and in-home energy display. This research tested the effects of both energy versus price information and the context of sponsorship on the behavior of subjects. I also surveyed subjects on the usefulness of various displays. The wireless network succeeded in providing detailed data to enable an intelligent controller and provide feedback to

  2. Deployment of Behind-The-Meter Energy Storage for Demand Charge Reduction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Neubauer, J. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Simpson, M. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2015-01-01

    This study investigates how economically motivated customers will use energy storage for demand charge reduction, as well as how this changes in the presence of on-site photovoltaic power generation, to investigate the possible effects of incentivizing increased quantities of behind-the-meter storage. It finds that small, short-duration batteries are most cost effective regardless of solar power levels, serving to reduce short load spikes on the order of 2.5% of peak demand. While profitable to the customer, such action is unlikely to adequately benefit the utility as may be desired, thus highlighting the need for modified utility rate structures or properly structured incentives.

  3. World uranium production and demand: A review

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tauchid, M.; Mueller Kahle, E.

    1993-01-01

    Despite the growing public concern on the use of nuclear energy, nuclear power generation capacity in the world is expected to follow a modest, but positive growth at least during the next two decades. Uranium production needed to fuel these reactors has been below demand since 1985. The WOCA production figure for 1991 is in the order of 27,000 tonnes U which is 39% below the peak production of 1980. With the exception of Australia, all other countries produced less uranium than in the previous year. It is expected that the production figure for 1992 will shrink even further to about 23,000 tonnes U. In-situ leaching uranium production contributed about 16% to the 1991 world production figure, most of which came from Eastern Europe and Central Asia. With the closing of a number of production facilities the relative contribution of in-situ leaching to the world uranium production is expected to grow. Only about 60% of WOCA's reactor related uranium demand for 1991 was supplied from its own production. The remaining 40% was filled from existing inventories and imports from the Russian Federation and China. The estimated gap between the world uranium production and reactor related demand for 1991 is in the order 10,900 tones U or 19.7%. The cumulative requirement for the world reactor related demand to the year 2010 has been estimated to be about 1,270,000 tonnes U. (author). 6 refs, 10 figs

  4. Effects of dynamic-demand-control appliances on the power grid frequency

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tchuisseu, E. B. Tchawou; Gomila, D.; Brunner, D.; Colet, P.

    2017-08-01

    Power grid frequency control is a demanding task requiring expensive idle power plants to adapt the supply to the fluctuating demand. An alternative approach is controlling the demand side in such a way that certain appliances modify their operation to adapt to the power availability. This is especially important to achieve a high penetration of renewable energy sources. A number of methods to manage the demand side have been proposed. In this work we focus on dynamic demand control (DDC), where smart appliances can delay their switchings depending on the frequency of the system. We introduce a simple model to study the effects of DDC on the frequency of the power grid. The model includes the power plant equations, a stochastic model for the demand that reproduces, adjusting a single parameter, the statistical properties of frequency fluctuations measured experimentally, and a generic DDC protocol. We find that DDC can reduce small and medium-size fluctuations but it can also increase the probability of observing large frequency peaks due to the necessity of recovering pending task. We also conclude that a deployment of DDC around 30-40% already allows a significant reduction of the fluctuations while keeping the number of pending tasks low.

  5. Electricity Portfolio Management: Optimal Peak / Off-Peak Allocations

    OpenAIRE

    Huisman, Ronald; Mahieu, Ronald; Schlichter, Felix

    2007-01-01

    textabstractElectricity purchasers manage a portfolio of contracts in order to purchase the expected future electricity consumption profile of a company or a pool of clients. This paper proposes a mean-variance framework to address the concept of structuring the portfolio and focuses on how to allocate optimal positions in peak and off-peak forward contracts. It is shown that the optimal allocations are based on the difference in risk premiums per unit of day-ahead risk as a measure of relati...

  6. Peak regulation right

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gao, Z. |; Ren, Z.; Li, Z.; Zhu, R.

    2005-01-01

    A peak regulation right concept and corresponding transaction mechanism for an electricity market was presented. The market was based on a power pool and independent system operator (ISO) model. Peak regulation right (PRR) was defined as a downward regulation capacity purchase option which allowed PRR owners to buy certain quantities of peak regulation capacity (PRC) at a specific price during a specified period from suppliers. The PRR owner also had the right to decide whether or not they would buy PRC from suppliers. It was the power pool's responsibility to provide competitive and fair peak regulation trading markets to participants. The introduction of PRR allowed for unit capacity regulation. The PRR and PRC were rated by the supplier, and transactions proceeded through a bidding process. PRR suppliers obtained profits by selling PRR and PRC, and obtained downward regulation fees regardless of whether purchases are made. It was concluded that the peak regulation mechanism reduced the total cost of the generating system and increased the social surplus. 6 refs., 1 tab., 3 figs

  7. Energy demand on dairy farms in Ireland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Upton, J; Humphreys, J; Groot Koerkamp, P W G; French, P; Dillon, P; De Boer, I J M

    2013-10-01

    Reducing electricity consumption in Irish milk production is a topical issue for 2 reasons. First, the introduction of a dynamic electricity pricing system, with peak and off-peak prices, will be a reality for 80% of electricity consumers by 2020. The proposed pricing schedule intends to discourage energy consumption during peak periods (i.e., when electricity demand on the national grid is high) and to incentivize energy consumption during off-peak periods. If farmers, for example, carry out their evening milking during the peak period, energy costs may increase, which would affect farm profitability. Second, electricity consumption is identified in contributing to about 25% of energy use along the life cycle of pasture-based milk. The objectives of this study, therefore, were to document electricity use per kilogram of milk sold and to identify strategies that reduce its overall use while maximizing its use in off-peak periods (currently from 0000 to 0900 h). We assessed, therefore, average daily and seasonal trends in electricity consumption on 22 Irish dairy farms, through detailed auditing of electricity-consuming processes. To determine the potential of identified strategies to save energy, we also assessed total energy use of Irish milk, which is the sum of the direct (i.e., energy use on farm) and indirect energy use (i.e., energy needed to produce farm inputs). On average, a total of 31.73 MJ was required to produce 1 kg of milk solids, of which 20% was direct and 80% was indirect energy use. Electricity accounted for 60% of the direct energy use, and mainly resulted from milk cooling (31%), water heating (23%), and milking (20%). Analysis of trends in electricity consumption revealed that 62% of daily electricity was used at peak periods. Electricity use on Irish dairy farms, therefore, is substantial and centered around milk harvesting. To improve the competitiveness of milk production in a dynamic electricity pricing environment, therefore, management

  8. Modelling demand for crude oil products in Spain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pedregal, D.J.; Dejuan, O.; Gomez, N.; Tobarra, M.A.

    2009-01-01

    This paper develops an econometric model for the five most important crude oil products demand in Spain. The aim is the estimation of a range of elasticities of such demands that would serve as the basis for an applied general equilibrium model used for forecasting energy demand in a broader framework. The main distinctive features of the system with respect to previous literature are (1) it takes advantage of monthly information coming from very different information sources and (2) multivariate unobserved components (UC) models are implemented allowing for a separate analysis of long- and short-run relations. UC models decompose time series into a number of unobserved though economic meaningful components mainly trend, seasonal and irregular. A module is added to such structure to take into account the influence of exogenous variables necessary to compute price, cross and income elasticities. Since all models implemented are multivariate in nature, the demand components are allowed to interact among them through the system noises (similar to a seemingly unrelated equations model). The results show unambiguously that the main factor driving demand is real income with prices having little impact on energy consumption. (author)

  9. Modelling demand for crude oil products in Spain

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pedregal, D.J. [Escuela Tecnica Superior de Ingenieros Industriales and Instituto de Matematica Aplicada a la Ciencia y la Ingenieria (IMACI), Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha (UCLM), Avenida Camilo Jose Cela s/n, 13071 Ciudad Real (Spain); Dejuan, O.; Gomez, N.; Tobarra, M.A. [Facultad de Ciencias Economicas y Empresariales, Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha (UCLM) (Spain)

    2009-11-15

    This paper develops an econometric model for the five most important crude oil products demand in Spain. The aim is the estimation of a range of elasticities of such demands that would serve as the basis for an applied general equilibrium model used for forecasting energy demand in a broader framework. The main distinctive features of the system with respect to previous literature are (1) it takes advantage of monthly information coming from very different information sources and (2) multivariate unobserved components (UC) models are implemented allowing for a separate analysis of long- and short-run relations. UC models decompose time series into a number of unobserved though economic meaningful components mainly trend, seasonal and irregular. A module is added to such structure to take into account the influence of exogenous variables necessary to compute price, cross and income elasticities. Since all models implemented are multivariate in nature, the demand components are allowed to interact among them through the system noises (similar to a seemingly unrelated equations model). The results show unambiguously that the main factor driving demand is real income with prices having little impact on energy consumption. (author)

  10. Efficient Customer Selection for Sustainable Demand Response in Smart Grids

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zois, Vasileios; Frincu, Marc; Chelmis, Charalambos; Saeed, Muhammad Rizwan; Prasanna, Viktor K.

    2014-11-03

    Regulating the power consumption to avoid peaks in demand is a common practice. Demand Response(DR) is being used by utility providers to minimize costs or ensure system reliability. Although it has been used extensively there is a shortage of solutions dealing with dynamic DR. Past attempts focus on minimizing the load demand without considering the sustainability of the reduced energy. In this paper an efficient algorithm is presented which solves the problem of dynamic DR scheduling. Data from the USC campus micro grid were used to evaluate the efficiency as well as the robustness of the proposed solution. The targeted energy reduction is achieved with a maximum average approximation error of ≈ 0.7%. Sustainability of the reduced energy is achieved with respect to the optimal available solution providing a maximum average error less than 0.6%. It is also shown that a solution is provided with a low computational cost fulfilling the requirements of dynamic DR.

  11. Engineering economics applied to supply and demand strategy in the gas industry

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gibson, G H

    1978-10-01

    A discussion covers some general aspects of long-term strategy in the gas industry, including the requirement of at least six years to develop storage facilities and gas plant; planning to meet all demands except those in the most severe winter occurring once in 50 yr; forecasting six years ahead (the 50 yr winter, the severe one-day demand, regional demands); development of a plant investment program to meet demands; the Cost Polygon method of determining the best plant mix; the mathematical model approach with which to examine every possible combination of plants available in any one year; the example of construction restraints for LNG storage; orientation of this model toward correct balance in peak shaving for say LNG, SNG, and salt cavities; a second, more powerful model for evaluating a least-cost investment program among the longer term plant options including LNG, SNG from oil or coal, and storage in salt cavities, disused coal mines, aquifers, or spent gas fields.

  12. A Price-Based Demand Response Scheme for Discrete Manufacturing in Smart Grids

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhe Luo

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Demand response (DR is a key technique in smart grid (SG technologies for reducing energy costs and maintaining the stability of electrical grids. Since manufacturing is one of the major consumers of electrical energy, implementing DR in factory energy management systems (FEMSs provides an effective way to manage energy in manufacturing processes. Although previous studies have investigated DR applications in process manufacturing, they were not conducted for discrete manufacturing. In this study, the state-task network (STN model is implemented to represent a discrete manufacturing system. On this basis, a DR scheme with a specific DR algorithm is applied to a typical discrete manufacturing—automobile manufacturing—and operational scenarios are established for the stamping process of the automobile production line. The DR scheme determines the optimal operating points for the stamping process using mixed integer linear programming (MILP. The results show that parts of the electricity demand can be shifted from peak to off-peak periods, reducing a significant overall energy costs without degrading production processes.

  13. The Potential for Energy Storage to Provide Peaking Capacity in California Under Increased Penetration of Solar Photovoltaics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Denholm, Paul L [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Margolis, Robert M [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2018-03-14

    In this report, we examine the potential for replacing conventional peaking capacity in California with energy storage, including analysis of the changing technical potential with increased storage deployment and the effect of PV deployment. We examine nine years of historic load data, a range of storage durations (2-8 hours), and a range of PV penetration levels (0%-30%). We demonstrate how PV increases the ability of storage to reduce peak net demand. In the scenarios analyzed, the expected penetration of PV in California in 2020 could more than double the potential for 4-hour energy storage to provide capacity services.

  14. Meeting India's growing energy demand with nuclear power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matzie, R.

    2009-01-01

    Full text: With world energy demand expected to nearly double by 2030, the need for safe, reliable and clean energy is imperative. In India, energy demand has outpaced the increase in energy production, with the country experiencing as much as a 12 percent gap between peak demand and availability. To meet demand, nuclear power is the ideal solution for providing baseload electricity, and as much as 40-60 GWe of nuclear capacity will need to be added throughout the county over the next 20 years. This presentation will describe the benefits of nuclear power compared to other energy sources, provide an overview of new nuclear power plant construction projects worldwide, and explain the benefits and advantages of the Westinghouse AP1000 nuclear power plant. The presentation will also outline the steps that Westinghouse is taking to help facilitate new nuclear construction in India, and how the company's 'Buy Where We Build' approach to supply chain management will positively impact the Indian economy through continued in-country supplier agreements, job creation, and the exporting of materials and components to support AP1000 projects outside of India. Finally, the presentation will show that the experience Westinghouse is gaining in constructing AP1000 plants in both China and the United States will help ensure the success of projects in India

  15. Optimal household appliances scheduling under day-ahead pricing and load-shaping demand response strategies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Paterakis, N.G.; Erdinç, O.; Bakirtzis, A.G.; Catalao, J.P.S.

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, a detailed home energy management system structure is developed to determine the optimal dayahead appliance scheduling of a smart household under hourly pricing and peak power-limiting (hard and soft power limitation)-based demand response strategies. All types of controllable assets

  16. Who will feed China in the 21st century ? income growth and food demand and supply in China

    OpenAIRE

    Fukase, Emiko; Martin, Will

    2014-01-01

    This paper uses resource-based cereal equivalent measures to explore the evolution of China's demand and supply for food. Although demand for food calories is probably close to its peak level in China, the ongoing dietary shift to animal-based foods, induced by income growth, is likely to impose considerable pressure on agricultural resources. Estimating the relationship between income gro...

  17. Demand dynamic bio-girdling in heart failure: improved efficacy of dynamic cardiomyoplasty by LD contraction during aortic out-flow.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carraro, U; Rigatelli, G; Rossini, K; Barbiero, M; Rigatelli, G

    2003-03-01

    The value of dynamic cardiomyoplasty has been brought into question by the disappointing results produced by slow contraction-relaxation cycle and possibly degeneration of the latissimus dorsi muscle (LD) secondary to temporary tenotomy and chronic daily electrical stimulation. Objective of our study is to determine whether daily periods of rest introduced by demand stimulation in the continuous contraction protocol produce systolic assistance and improve clinical results. Twelve dynamic cardiomyoplasty patients (mean age 58.2 +/- 5.8 years, M/F=11/1, sinus rhythm/atrial fibrillation=11/1) with dilated myocardiopathy were enrolled in an unrandomized trial of Demand Dynamic Heart Bio-Girdling in a public regional teaching hospital. Periods of LD inactivity, each lasting several hours, were introduced daily on a heart rate-based demand regime. To avoid full transformation of LD, fewer impulses per day were delivered, daily providing the LD with long periods of rest (Demand light stimulation). The contractile properties were measured by transcutaneous non-invasive LD tensiomyogram interrogation (LD tensiomyogram). Bio-Girdle activation was synchronized to heart beat by combining tensiomyogram and echocardiography. Clinical, echocardiographic and hemodynamic records, as well as aortic flow measurements by Doppler aortic flow wire were taken during the follow-up. Mean duration of the demand stimulation follow-up was 40.2+13.8 months. At five years, "Demand stimulation" shows: 1) no operative death; 2) 83% actuarial survival; 3) highly significant 47.4% decrease of the NYHA class (from 3.17 +/- 0.38 to 1.67 +/- 0.77, p=0.0001); 4) 41.6% improvement of LVEF (from 22.6 +/- 4.38 to 32.0 +/- 7.0, p=0.001); 5) 7.5 +/- 3.0% increase in aortic flow velocity peak in assisted vs. unassisted beats, and 6) preservation of LD from slowness (TFF value 33 +/- 7.86 at follow-up versus 15.8 +/- 11.1 Hz just before switching from continuous to demand stimulation, p=0.0001) and muscle

  18. A demand response modeling for residential consumers in smart grid environment using game theory based energy scheduling algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Sofana Reka

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, demand response modeling scheme is proposed for residential consumers using game theory algorithm as Generalized Tit for Tat (GTFT Dominant Game based Energy Scheduler. The methodology is established as a work flow domain model between the utility and the user considering the smart grid framework. It exhibits an algorithm which schedules load usage by creating several possible tariffs for consumers such that demand is never raised. This can be done both individually and among multiple users of a community. The uniqueness behind the demand response proposed is that, the tariff is calculated for all hours and the load during the peak hours which can be rescheduled is shifted based on the Peak Average Ratio. To enable the vitality of the work simulation results of a general case of three domestic consumers are modeled extended to a comparative performance and evaluation with other algorithms and inference is analyzed.

  19. Study of tensions on network- and grid-based energies during the winter consumption peak

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lemaignan, Benoit; Wilmotte, Jean-Yves; Gault, Nicolas

    2014-01-01

    This document first proposes an analysis of an historical example of a consumption peak (8 February 2012) and of its impacts. It indicates temperatures and consumptions, discusses the level of supply safety on that day (shares of different available energy sources), outlines some peculiarities of a grid-based (electricity) or network-based (gas) energy system and issues related to supply safety, and describes how energy demand varies during the day and with respect to the season. The second part addresses the issue of thermal sensitivity, i.e. an analysis of the relationship between the energy system and the temperature: usages depend on the outdoor temperature; as far as heating is concerned, this sensitivity depends on thermal characteristics of heated buildings; housing heating with fixed equipment represents less than a half of this electrical thermal-sensitivity; electricity demand peak increased of several GW while the share of thermal sensitivity of housing heating decreased; thermal sensitivity of gas increased during the last four years. The third part addresses heating modes, outlines the challenges in terms of CO_2 emissions, notices the benefits of the present energy mix in terms of hydrocarbon use, trade balance and emissions, outlines that households using electric heating do not pay more and are less represented in households suffering of energy poverty

  20. The replacement principle in networked economies with single-peaked preferences

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Szwagrzak, Karol

    2016-01-01

    disequilibrium prices, etc. In these contexts suppliers and demanders naturally have single-peaked preferences. We evaluate transfer rules on the basis of the “replacement principle” (Thomson, J Econ Theory 76(1):145–168 1997; Moulin, Q J Econ 102:769–783 1987), the requirement that a change in an agent......’s preferences affects all other agents in the same direction in terms of welfare. We find that the only Pareto-efficient, participation-compatible, replication-invariant, and envy-free rule satisfying an appropriate formulation of the replacement principle is the “egalitarian rule” introduced by Bochet et al....... (Theor Econ 7:395–423 2012)....

  1. Modelling and Forecasting Cruise Tourism Demand to İzmir by Different Artificial Neural Network Architectures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Murat Cuhadar

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Cruise ports emerged as an important sector for the economy of Turkey bordered on three sides by water. Forecasting cruise tourism demand ensures better planning, efficient preparation at the destination and it is the basis for elaboration of future plans. In the recent years, new techniques such as; artificial neural networks were employed for developing of the predictive models to estimate tourism demand. In this study, it is aimed to determine the forecasting method that provides the best performance when compared the forecast accuracy of Multi-layer Perceptron (MLP, Radial Basis Function (RBF and Generalized Regression neural network (GRNN to estimate the monthly inbound cruise tourism demand to İzmir via the method giving best results. We used the total number of foreign cruise tourist arrivals as a measure of inbound cruise tourism demand and monthly cruise tourist arrivals to İzmir Cruise Port in the period of January 2005 ‐December 2013 were utilized to appropriate model. Experimental results showed that radial basis function (RBF neural network outperforms multi-layer perceptron (MLP and the generalised regression neural networks (GRNN in terms of forecasting accuracy. By the means of the obtained RBF neural network model, it has been forecasted the monthly inbound cruise tourism demand to İzmir for the year 2014.

  2. Panorama 2009 - oil supply and demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2008-01-01

    The year 2008 will probably go down in the annals of the oil industry along with the oil shocks of 1973 and 1980, the counter-shock of 1986 and the demand surge of 2004. The price spikes observed until the month of July were unusually high, followed by an unusually abrupt, steep decrease. This is the result of the short-sightedness shown by all market players, most of whom failed to anticipate the economic downturn

  3. Limitation of peak fitting and peak shape methods for determination of activation energy of thermoluminescence glow peaks

    CERN Document Server

    Sunta, C M; Piters, T M; Watanabe, S

    1999-01-01

    This paper shows the limitation of general order peak fitting and peak shape methods for determining the activation energy of the thermoluminescence glow peaks in the cases in which retrapping probability is much higher than the recombination probability and the traps are filled up to near saturation level. Right values can be obtained when the trap occupancy is reduced by using small doses or by post-irradiation partial bleaching. This limitation in the application of these methods has not been indicated earlier. In view of the unknown nature of kinetics in the experimental samples, it is recommended that these methods of activation energy determination should be applied only at doses well below the saturation dose.

  4. Make peak flow a habit

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asthma - make peak flow a habit; Reactive airway disease - peak flow; Bronchial asthma - peak flow ... 2014:chap 55. National Asthma Education and Prevention Program website. How to use a peak flow meter. ...

  5. Experimental Evaluation of Simple Thermal Storage Control Strategies in Low-Energy Solar Houses to Reduce Electricity Consumption during Grid On-Peak Periods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kyoung-Ho Lee

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available There is growing interest in zero-energy and low-energy buildings, which have a net energy consumption (on an annual basis of almost zero. Because they can generate both electricity and thermal energy through the use of solar photovoltaic (PV and solar thermal collectors, and with the help of reduced building thermal demand, low-energy buildings can not only make a significant contribution to energy conservation on an annual basis, but also reduce energy consumption and peak demand. This study focused on electricity consumption during the on-peak period in a low-energy residential solar building and considers the use of a building’s thermal mass and thermal storage to reduce electricity consumption in summer and winter by modulation of temperature setpoints for heat pump and indoor thermostats in summer and additional use of a solar heating loop in winter. Experiments were performed at a low-energy solar demonstration house that has solar collectors, hot water storage, a ground-coupled heat pump, and a thermal storage tank. It was assumed that the on-peak periods were from 2 pm to 5 pm on hot summer days and from 5 pm to 8 pm on cold winter days. To evaluate the potential for utilizing the building’s thermal storage capacity in space cooling and heating, the use of simple control strategies on three test days in summer and two test days in the early spring were compared in terms of net electricity consumption and peak demand, which also considered the electricity generation from solar PV modules on the roof of the house.

  6. Peak tree: a new tool for multiscale hierarchical representation and peak detection of mass spectrometry data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Peng; Li, Houqiang; Wang, Honghui; Wong, Stephen T C; Zhou, Xiaobo

    2011-01-01

    Peak detection is one of the most important steps in mass spectrometry (MS) analysis. However, the detection result is greatly affected by severe spectrum variations. Unfortunately, most current peak detection methods are neither flexible enough to revise false detection results nor robust enough to resist spectrum variations. To improve flexibility, we introduce peak tree to represent the peak information in MS spectra. Each tree node is a peak judgment on a range of scales, and each tree decomposition, as a set of nodes, is a candidate peak detection result. To improve robustness, we combine peak detection and common peak alignment into a closed-loop framework, which finds the optimal decomposition via both peak intensity and common peak information. The common peak information is derived and loopily refined from the density clustering of the latest peak detection result. Finally, we present an improved ant colony optimization biomarker selection method to build a whole MS analysis system. Experiment shows that our peak detection method can better resist spectrum variations and provide higher sensitivity and lower false detection rates than conventional methods. The benefits from our peak-tree-based system for MS disease analysis are also proved on real SELDI data.

  7. Relative Economic Merits of Storage and Combustion Turbines for Meeting Peak Capacity Requirements under Increased Penetration of Solar Photovoltaics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Denholm, Paul [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Diakov, Victor [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Margolis, Robert [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2015-09-01

    Batteries with several hours of capacity provide an alternative to combustion turbines for meeting peak capacity requirements. Even when compared to state-of-the-art highly flexible combustion turbines, batteries can provide a greater operational value, which is reflected in a lower system-wide production cost. By shifting load and providing operating reserves, batteries can reduce the cost of operating the power system to a traditional electric utility. This added value means that, depending on battery life, batteries can have a higher cost than a combustion turbine of equal capacity and still produce a system with equal or lower overall life-cycle cost. For a utility considering investing in new capacity, the cost premium for batteries is highly sensitive to a variety of factors, including lifetime, natural gas costs, PV penetration, and grid generation mix. In addition, as PV penetration increases, the net electricity demand profile changes, which may reduce the amount of battery energy capacity needed to reliably meet peak demand.

  8. Forecasted electric power demands for the Baltimore Gas and Electric Company. Volume 1 and Volume 2. Documentation manual

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Estomin, S.L.; Beach, J.E.; Goldsmith, J.V.

    1991-05-01

    The two-volume report presents the results of an econometric forecast of peak load and electric power demand for the Baltimore Gas and Electric Company (BG ampersand E) through the year 2009. Separate energy sales models were estimated for residential sales in Baltimore City, residential sales in the BG ampersand E service area excluding Baltimore City, commercial sales, industrial sales, streetlighting sales, and Company use plus losses. Econometric equations were also estimated for electric space heating and air conditioning saturation in Baltimore City and in the remainder of the BG ampersand E service territory. In addition to the energy sales models and the electric space conditioning saturation models, econometric models of summer and winter peak demand on the BG ampersand E system were estimated

  9. Hydrogen or Fossil Combustion Nuclear Combined Cycle Systems for Baseload and Peak Load Electricity Production. Annex X

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2013-12-15

    A combined cycle power plant is described that uses: (i) heat from a high temperature nuclear reactor to meet baseload electrical demands; and (ii) heat from the same high temperature reactor and burning natural gas, jet fuel or hydrogen to meet peak load electrical demands. For baseload electricity production, fresh air is compressed, then flows through a heat exchanger, where it is heated to between 700 and 900{sup o}C by using heat provided by a high temperature nuclear reactor via an intermediate heat transport loop, and finally exits through a high temperature gas turbine to produce electricity. The hot exhaust from the Brayton cycle gas turbine is then fed to a heat recovery steam generator that provides steam to a steam turbine for added electrical power production. To meet peak electricity demand, the air is first compressed and then heated with the heat from a high temperature reactor. Natural gas, jet fuel or hydrogen is then injected into the hot air in a combustion chamber, combusts and heats the air to 1300{sup o}C - the operating conditions for a standard natural gas fired combined cycle plant. The hot gas then flows through a gas turbine and a heat recovery steam generator before being sent to the exhaust stack. The higher temperatures increase the plant efficiency and power output. If hydrogen is used, it can be produced at night using energy from the nuclear reactor and stored until required. With hydrogen serving as the auxiliary fuel for peak power production, the electricity output to the electrical grid can vary from zero (i.e. when hydrogen is being produced) to the maximum peak power while the nuclear reactor operates at constant load. As nuclear heat raises air temperatures above the auto-ignition temperatures of the various fuels and powers the air compressor, the power output can be varied rapidly (compared with the capabilities of fossil fired turbines) to meet spinning reserve requirements and stabilize the electrical grid. This combined

  10. Peak Experience Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott, Daniel G.; Evans, Jessica

    2010-01-01

    This paper emerges from the continued analysis of data collected in a series of international studies concerning Childhood Peak Experiences (CPEs) based on developments in understanding peak experiences in Maslow's hierarchy of needs initiated by Dr Edward Hoffman. Bridging from the series of studies, Canadian researchers explore collected…

  11. Demand side management—A simulation of household behavior under variable prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gottwalt, Sebastian; Ketter, Wolfgang; Block, Carsten; Collins, John; Weinhardt, Christof

    2011-01-01

    Within the next years, consumer households will be increasingly equipped with smart metering and intelligent appliances. These technologies are the basis for households to better monitor electricity consumption and to actively control loads in private homes. Demand side management (DSM) can be adopted to private households. We present a simulation model that generates household load profiles under flat tariffs and simulates changes in these profiles when households are equipped with smart appliances and face time-based electricity prices. We investigate the impact of smart appliances and variable prices on electricity bills of a household. We show that for households the savings from equipping them with smart appliances are moderate compared to the required investment. This finding is quite robust with respect to variation of tariff price spreads and to different types of appliance utilization patterns. Finally, our results indicate that electric utilities may face new demand peaks when day-ahead hourly prices are applied. However, a considerable amount of residential load is available for shifting, which is interesting for the utilities to balance demand and supply. - Highlights: ► Our model generates residential load profiles that are based on real world data. ► We simulate changes in load profiles when smart appliances and time-of-use tariffs are applied. ► The economic incentive for households to invest in smart appliances is low. ► Time-of-use tariffs create new, even higher peaks. ► Electric utilities have a large amount of the hourly load available for shifting.

  12. End-user comfort oriented day-ahead planning for responsive residential HVAC demand aggregation considering weather forecasts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Erdinç, O.; Taşcikaraogυlu, A.; Paterakis, N.G.; Eren, Y.; Catalão, J.P.S.

    2017-01-01

    There is a remarkable potential for implementing demand response (DR) strategies for several purposes, such as peak load reduction, frequency regulation, etc., by using thermostatically controllable appliances. In this paper, an end-user comfort violation minimization oriented DR strategy for

  13. Modeling and forecasting of electrical power demands for capacity planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Al-Shobaki, S.; Mohsen, M.

    2007-01-01

    Jordan imports oil from neighboring countries for use in power production. As such, the cost of electricity production is high compared to oil producing countries. It is anticipated that Jordan will face major challenges in trying to meet the growing energy and electricity demands while also developing the energy sector in a way that reduces any adverse impacts on the economy, the environment and social life. This paper described the development of forecasting models to predict future generation and sales loads of electrical power in Jordan. Two models that could be used for the prediction of electrical energy demand in Amman, Jordan were developed and validated. An analysis of the data was also presented. The first model was based on the levels of energy generated by the National Electric Power Company (NEPCO) and the other was based on the levels of energy sold by the company in the same area. The models were compared and the percent error was presented. Energy demand was also forecasted across the next 60 months for both models. Results were then compared with the output of the in-house forecast model used by NEPCO to predict the levels of generated energy needed across the 60 months time period. It was concluded that the NEPCO model predicted energy demand higher than the validated generated data model by an average of 5.25 per cent. 8 refs., 5 tabs., 15 figs

  14. Modeling and forecasting of electrical power demands for capacity planning

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Al-Shobaki, S. [Hashemite Univ., Zarka (Jordan). Dept. of Industrial Engineering; Mohsen, M. [Hashemite Univ., Zarka (Jordan). Dept. of Mechanical Engineering

    2007-07-01

    Jordan imports oil from neighboring countries for use in power production. As such, the cost of electricity production is high compared to oil producing countries. It is anticipated that Jordan will face major challenges in trying to meet the growing energy and electricity demands while also developing the energy sector in a way that reduces any adverse impacts on the economy, the environment and social life. This paper described the development of forecasting models to predict future generation and sales loads of electrical power in Jordan. Two models that could be used for the prediction of electrical energy demand in Amman, Jordan were developed and validated. An analysis of the data was also presented. The first model was based on the levels of energy generated by the National Electric Power Company (NEPCO) and the other was based on the levels of energy sold by the company in the same area. The models were compared and the percent error was presented. Energy demand was also forecasted across the next 60 months for both models. Results were then compared with the output of the in-house forecast model used by NEPCO to predict the levels of generated energy needed across the 60 months time period. It was concluded that the NEPCO model predicted energy demand higher than the validated generated data model by an average of 5.25 per cent. 8 refs., 5 tabs., 15 figs.

  15. Balancing food security and water demand for freshwater ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pastor, Amandine; Palazzo, Amanda; Havlik, Petr; Obersteiner, Michael; Biemans, Hester; Wada, Yoshihide; Kabat, Pavel; Ludwig, Fulco

    2017-04-01

    Water is not an infinite resource and demand from irrigation, household and industry is constantly increasing. This study focused on including global water availability including environmental flow requirements with water withdrawal from irrigation and other sectors at a monthly time-step in the GLOBIOM model. This model allows re-adjustment of land-use allocation, crop management, consumption and international trade. The GLOBIOM model induces an endogenous change in water price depending on water supply and demand. In this study, the focus was on how the inclusion of water resources affects land-use and, in particular, how global change will influence repartition of irrigated and rainfed lands at global scale. We used the climate change scenario including a radiative forcing of 8.5 W/m2 (RCP8.5), the socio-economic scenario (SSP2: middle-of-road), and the environmental flow method based on monthly flow allocation (the Variable Monthly Flow method) with high and low restrictions. Irrigation withdrawals were adjusted to a monthly time-step to account for biophysical water limitations at finer time resolution. Our results show that irrigated land might decrease up to 40% on average depending on the choice of EFR restrictions. Several areas were identified as future hot-spots of water stress such as the Mediterranean and Middle-East regions. Other countries were identified to be in safe position in terms of water stress such as North-European countries. Re-allocation of rainfed and irrigated land might be useful information for land-use planners and water managers at an international level to decide on appropriate legislations on climate change mitigation/adaptation when exposure and sensitivity to climate change is high and/or on adaptation measures to face increasing water demand. For example, some countries are likely to adopt measures to increase their water use efficiencies (irrigation system, soil and water conservation practices) to face water shortages, while

  16. Research on Double Price Regulations and Peak Shaving Reserve Mechanism in Coal-Electricity Supply Chain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hongjun Peng

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The game models were used to study the mechanism of coal-electricity price conflict under conditions of double price regulations of coal and electricity. Based on this, the peak shaving reserve mechanism was designed to probe into the countermeasures against the coal-electricity price conflicts. The study revealed that in the boom seasons of coal demand, the initiatives of the coal enterprises to supply thermal coal and the electricity enterprises to order thermal coal are reduced under conditions of double price regulations. However, under the circumstances of coal price marketization, in the boom seasons of coal demand the thermal coal price may go up obviously, the initiatives of the coal enterprises to supply thermal coal are increased, and meanwhile the initiatives of the power enterprises to order thermal coal are decreased dramatically. The transportation capacity constraint of coal supply leads to the evident decrease of the initiatives of coal enterprises for the thermal coal supply. The mechanism of peak shaving reserve of thermal coal may not only reduce the price of coal market but also increase the enthusiasm of the power enterprises to order more thermal coal and the initiatives of the coal enterprises to supply more thermal coal.

  17. The optimization of demand response programs in smart grids

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Derakhshan, Ghasem; Shayanfar, Heidar Ali; Kazemi, Ahad

    2016-01-01

    The potential to schedule portion of the electricity demand in smart energy systems is clear as a significant opportunity to enhance the efficiency of the grids. Demand response is one of the new developments in the field of electricity which is meant to engage consumers in improving the energy consumption pattern. We used Teaching & Learning based Optimization (TLBO) and Shuffled Frog Leaping (SFL) algorithms to propose an optimization model for consumption scheduling in smart grid when payment costs of different periods are reduced. This study conducted on four types residential consumers obtained in the summer for some residential houses located in the centre of Tehran city in Iran: first with time of use pricing, second with real-time pricing, third one with critical peak pricing, and the last consumer had no tariff for pricing. The results demonstrate that the adoption of demand response programs can reduce total payment costs and determine a more efficient use of optimization techniques. - Highlights: •An optimization model for the demand response program is made. •TLBO and SFL algorithms are applied to reduce payment costs in smart grid. •The optimal condition is provided for the maximization of the social welfare problem. •An application to some residential houses located in the centre of Tehran city in Iran is demonstrated.

  18. Open Source Tools for Assessment of Global Water Availability, Demands, and Scarcity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, X.; Vernon, C. R.; Hejazi, M. I.; Link, R. P.; Liu, Y.; Feng, L.; Huang, Z.; Liu, L.

    2017-12-01

    Water availability and water demands are essential factors for estimating water scarcity conditions. To reproduce historical observations and to quantify future changes in water availability and water demand, two open source tools have been developed by the JGCRI (Joint Global Change Research Institute): Xanthos and GCAM-STWD. Xanthos is a gridded global hydrologic model, designed to quantify and analyze water availability in 235 river basins. Xanthos uses a runoff generation and a river routing modules to simulate both historical and future estimates of total runoff and streamflows on a monthly time step at a spatial resolution of 0.5 degrees. GCAM-STWD is a spatiotemporal water disaggregation model used with the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) to spatially downscale global water demands for six major enduse sectors (irrigation, domestic, electricity generation, mining, and manufacturing) from the region scale to the scale of 0.5 degrees. GCAM-STWD then temporally downscales the gridded annual global water demands to monthly results. These two tools, written in Python, can be integrated to assess global, regional or basin-scale water scarcity or water stress. Both of the tools are extensible to ensure flexibility and promote contribution from researchers that utilize GCAM and study global water use and supply.

  19. Power Peaking Effect of OTTO Fuel Scheme Pebble Bed Reactor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Setiadipura, T.; Suwoto; Zuhair; Bakhri, S.; Sunaryo, G. R.

    2018-02-01

    Pebble Bed Reactor (PBR) type of Hight Temperature Gas-cooled Reactor (HTGR) is a very interesting nuclear reactor design to fulfill the growing electricity and heat demand with a superior passive safety features. Effort to introduce the PBR design to the market can be strengthen by simplifying its system with the Once-through-then-out (OTTO) cycle PBR in which the pebble fuel only pass the core once. Important challenge in the OTTO fuel scheme is the power peaking effect which limit the maximum nominal power or burnup of the design. Parametric survey is perform in this study to investigate the contribution of different design parameters to power peaking effect of OTTO cycle PBR. PEBBED code is utilized in this study to perform the equilibrium PBR core analysis for different design parameter and fuel scheme. The parameters include its core diameter, height-per-diameter (H/D), power density, and core nominal power. Results of this study show that diameter and H/D effectsare stronger compare to the power density and nominal core power. Results of this study might become an importance guidance for design optimization of OTTO fuel scheme PBR.

  20. Predicting summer residential electricity demand across the U.S.A using climate information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, X.; Wang, S.; Lall, U.

    2017-12-01

    We developed a Bayesian Hierarchical model to predict monthly residential per capita electricity consumption at the state level across the USA using climate information. The summer period was selected since cooling requirements may be directly associated with electricity use, while for winter a mix of energy sources may be used to meet heating needs. Historical monthly electricity consumption data from 1990 to 2013 were used to build a predictive model with a set of corresponding climate and non-climate covariates. A clustering analysis was performed first to identify groups of states that had similar temporal patterns for the cooling degree days of each state. Then, a partial pooling model was applied to each cluster to assess the sensitivity of monthly per capita residential electricity demand to each predictor (including cooling-degree-days, gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, per capita electricity demand of previous month and previous year, and the residential electricity price). The sensitivity of residential electricity to cooling-degree-days has an identifiable geographic distribution with higher values in northeastern United States.

  1. Peak Oil and other threatening peaks-Chimeras without substance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Radetzki, Marian

    2010-01-01

    The Peak Oil movement has widely spread its message about an impending peak in global oil production, caused by an inadequate resource base. On closer scrutiny, the underlying analysis is inconsistent, void of a theoretical foundation and without support in empirical observations. Global oil resources are huge and expanding, and pose no threat to continuing output growth within an extended time horizon. In contrast, temporary or prolonged supply crunches are indeed plausible, even likely, on account of growing resource nationalism denying access to efficient exploitation of the existing resource wealth.

  2. Analysis of neutronic parameters of AP1000 core for 18 month and 16/20 month cycle schemes using CASMO4E and SIMULATE-3 codes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nawaz Amjad; Yoshikawa, Hidekazu; Ming Yang

    2015-01-01

    AP1000 reactor is designed for 18 month of operating cycle. The core can also be used for 16/20 months of operating cycle. This study is performed to analyze and compare the neutronic parameters of typical AP1000 reactor core for 18 month and 16/20 month alternate cycle lengths. CASMO4E and SIMULATE-3 code package is used for the analysis of initial and equilibrium cores. The key reactor physics safety parameters were analyzed including power peaking factors, core radial and axial power distribution and core reactivity feedback coefficients. Moreover, the analysis of fuel depletion, fission product buildup and burnable poison behaviour with burnup is also analyzed. Full 2-D fuel assembly model in CASMO4E and full 3-D core model in SIMULATE-3 is employed to examine core performance and safety parameters. In order to evaluate the equilibrium core neutronic parameters, the equilibrium core model is attained by performing burnup analysis from initial to equilibrium cycle, where optimized transition core design is obtained so that the power peaking factors remain within designed limits. The MTC for higher concentration of critical boron concentrations is slightly positive at lower moderator temperatures. However, it remains negative at operating temperature ranges. The radial core relative power distribution indicates that low leakage capability of initial and equilibrium cores is reduced at EOC. (author)

  3. Using vehicle-to-grid technology for frequency regulation and peak-load reduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, Corey D.; Zhang, K. Max

    This paper explores the potential financial return for using plug-in hybrid electric vehicles as a grid resource. While there is little financial incentive for individuals when the vehicle-to-grid (V2G) service is used exclusively for peak reduction, there is a significant potential for financial return when the V2G service is used for frequency regulation. We propose that these two uses for V2G technology are not mutually exclusive, and that there could exist a "dual-use" program that utilizes V2G for multiple uses simultaneously. In our proposition, V2G could be used for regulation on a daily basis to ensure profits, and be used for peak reduction on days with high electricity demand and poor ambient air quality in order to reap the greatest environmental benefits. The profits for the individual in this type of dual-use program are close to or even higher than the profits experienced in either of the single-use programs. More importantly, we argue that the external benefits of this type of program are much greater as well. At higher V2G participation rates, our analysis shows that the market for regulation capacity could become saturated by V2G-based regulation providers. At the same time, there is plenty of potential for widespread use of V2G technology, especially if the demand for regulation, reserves, and storage grows as more intermittent renewable resources are being incorporated into the power systems.

  4. Forward-looking report of the electricity supply-demand balance in France. 2011

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2011-01-01

    After an introduction presenting the objective of this report and the method used for its predictions, this document proposes an analysis of energy consumption: past trends, context of predictions, building up of predictions, global predictions, impact of demand control, comparison with a previous forward-looking assessment, comparison with other scenarios and other European countries. It analyses and discusses power consumption predictions (electricity consumption time variations, load curve evolution perspectives, peak power), production supply (current stock, thermal nuclear, thermal fossil, thermal decentralized, hydroelectric, wind energy, and photovoltaic production), the evolution of the supply-demand balance on a medium term for France and for two French regions. It finally proposes a long term prospective vision regarding energy

  5. Analysis of AC and DC Lighting Systems with 150-Watt Peak Solar Panel in Denpasar Based on NASA Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Narottama, A. A. N. M.; Amerta Yasa, K.; Suwardana, I. W.; Sapteka, A. A. N. G.; Priambodo, P. S.

    2018-01-01

    Solar energy on the Earth’s surface has different magnitudes on every longitude and latitude. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) provides surface meteorology and solar energy database which can be accessed openly online. This database delivers information about Monthly Averaged Insolation Incident On A Horizontal Surface, Monthly Averaged Insolation Incident On A Horizontal Surface At Indicated GMT Times and also data about Equivalent Number Of No-Sun Or Black Days for any latitude and longitude. Therefore, we investigate the lighting systems with 150-Watt peak solar panel in Denpasar City, the capital province of Bali. Based on NASA data, we analyse the received wattage by a unit of 150-Watt peak solar panel in Denpasar City and the sustainability of 150-Watt peak solar panel to supply energy for 432-Watt hour/day AC and 360-Watt hour/day DC lighting systems using 1.2 kWh battery. The result shows that the maximum received wattage by a unit of 150-Watt peak solar panel is 0.76 kW/day in October. We concluded that the 1.2 kWh installed battery has higher capacity than the battery capacity needed in March, the month with highest no-sun days, for both AC and DC lighting systems. We calculate that the installed battery can be used to store the sustainable energy from sun needed by AC and DC lighting system for about 2.78 days and 3.51 days, consecutively.

  6. Demand Uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nguyen, Daniel Xuyen

    This paper presents a model of trade that explains why firms wait to export and why many exporters fail. Firms face uncertain demands that are only realized after the firm enters the destination. The model retools the timing of uncertainty resolution found in productivity heterogeneity models....... This retooling addresses several shortcomings. First, the imperfect correlation of demands reconciles the sales variation observed in and across destinations. Second, since demands for the firm's output are correlated across destinations, a firm can use previously realized demands to forecast unknown demands...... in untested destinations. The option to forecast demands causes firms to delay exporting in order to gather more information about foreign demand. Third, since uncertainty is resolved after entry, many firms enter a destination and then exit after learning that they cannot profit. This prediction reconciles...

  7. Demand side resource operation on the Irish power system with high wind power penetration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Keane, A.; Tuohy, A.; Meibom, Peter

    2011-01-01

    part of the power system plant mix and contribute to the flexible operation of a power system. A model for demand side resources is proposed here that captures its key characteristics for commitment and dispatch calculations. The model is tested on the all island Irish power system, and the operation...... of the functions of conventional peaking plant. Demand side resources are also shown to be capable of improving the reliability of the system, with reserve capability identified as a key requirement in this respect....... of the model is simulated over one year in both a stochastic and deterministic mode, to illustrate the impact of wind and load uncertainty. The results illustrate that demand side resources can contribute to the efficient, flexible operation of systems with high penetrations of wind by replacing some...

  8. Prices dip on slow demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1993-01-01

    The Restricted Uranium Spot Market Price Range slipped to $9.90-$10.35, mostly due to lackluster demand. Only three transactions took place during the month. Two of the purchases, accounting for 98% of the month's volume, were by European utilities; the other was made by a US utility. One of the European purchases was made in the unrestricted market, but since it included a host of fuel cycle services, the U3O8 price could not be determined. Hence, NUKEM's Unrestricted Uranium Spot Market Price Range stays the same, at $7.90-$8.00. The other European deal, concluded in the restricted market, represents the low end of the restricted market price range. The US deal was based on bids that were made at the beginning of November and therefore does not reflect market conditions in December. Looking ahead, we see four utilities ready to enter the market for nearly 1 million lbs U3O8 equivalent

  9. Peak power ratio generator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moyer, R.D.

    A peak power ratio generator is described for measuring, in combination with a conventional power meter, the peak power level of extremely narrow pulses in the gigahertz radio frequency bands. The present invention in a preferred embodiment utilizes a tunnel diode and a back diode combination in a detector circuit as the only high speed elements. The high speed tunnel diode provides a bistable signal and serves as a memory device of the input pulses for the remaining, slower components. A hybrid digital and analog loop maintains the peak power level of a reference channel at a known amount. Thus, by measuring the average power levels of the reference signal and the source signal, the peak power level of the source signal can be determined.

  10. Multi-model comparison of CO2 emissions peaking in China: Lessons from CEMF01 study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oleg Lugovoy

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The paper summarizes results of the China Energy Modeling Forum's (CEMF first study. Carbon emissions peaking scenarios, consistent with China's Paris commitment, have been simulated with seven national and industry-level energy models and compared. The CO2 emission trends in the considered scenarios peak from 2015 to 2030 at the level of 9–11 Gt. Sector-level analysis suggests that total emissions pathways before 2030 will be determined mainly by dynamics of emissions in the electric power industry and transportation sector. Both sectors will experience significant increase in demand, but have low-carbon alternative options for development. Based on a side-by-side comparison of modeling input and results, conclusions have been drawn regarding the sources of emissions projections differences, which include data, views on economic perspectives, or models' structure and theoretical framework. Some suggestions have been made regarding energy models' development priorities for further research. Keywords: Carbon emissions projections, Climate change, CO2 emissions peak, China's Paris commitment, Top-Down energy models, Bottom-Up energy models, Multi model comparative study, China Energy Modeling Forum (CEMF

  11. Cranial Indicators Identified for Peak Incidence of Otitis Media.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pagano, Anthony S; Wang, Eugene; Yuan, Derek; Fischer, Daniel; Bluestone, Charles; Marquez, Samuel; Laitman, Jeffrey

    2017-10-01

    Acute otitis media (AOM) is one of the most common pediatric conditions worldwide. Peak age of occurrence for AOM has been identified within the first postnatal year and it remains frequent until approximately six postnatal years. Morphological differences between adults and infants in the cartilaginous Eustachian tube (CET) and associated structures may be responsible for development of this disease yet few have investigated normal growth trajectories. We tested hypotheses on coincidence of skeletal growth changes and known ages of peak AOM occurrence. Growth was divided into five dental eruption stages ranging from edentulous neonates (Stage 1) to adults with erupted third maxillary molars (Stage 5). A total of 32 three-dimensional landmarks were used and Generalized Procrustes Analysis was performed. Next, we performed principal components analysis and calculated univariate measures. It was found that growth change in Stage 1 was the most rapid and comprised the largest amount of overall growth in upper respiratory tract proportions (where time is represented by the natural logarithmic transformation of centroid size). The analysis of univariate measures showed that Stage 1 humans did indeed possess the relatively shortest and most horizontally oriented CET's with the greatest amount of growth change occurring at the transition to Stage 2 (eruption of deciduous dentition at five postnatal months, commencing peak AOM incidence) and ceasing by Stage 3 (approximately six postnatal years). Skeletal indicators appear related to peak ages of AOM incidence and may contribute to understanding of a nearly ubiquitous human disease. Anat Rec, 2017. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Anat Rec, 300:1721-1740, 2017. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  12. Modeling of demand response in electricity markets : effects of price elasticity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Banda, E.C.; Tuan, L.A.

    2007-01-01

    A design mechanism for the optimal participation of customer load in electricity markets was presented. In particular, this paper presented a modified market model for the optimal procurement of interruptible loads participating in day-ahead electricity markets. The proposed model considers the effect of price elasticity and demand-response functions. The objective was to determine the role that price elasticity plays in electricity markets. The simulation model can help the Independent System Operator (ISO) identify customers offering the lowest price of interruptible loads and load flow patterns that avoid problems associated with transmission congestion and transmission losses. Various issues associated with procurement of demand-response offerings such as advance notification, locational aspect of load, and power factor of the loads, were considered. It was shown that demand response can mitigate price volatility by allowing the ISO to maintain operating reserves during peak load periods. It was noted that the potential benefits of the demand response program would be reduced when price elasticity of demand is taken into account. This would most likely occur in actual developed open electricity markets, such as Nordpool. This study was based on the CIGRE 32-bus system, which represents the Swedish high voltage power system. It was modified for this study to include a broad range of customer characteristics. 18 refs., 2 tabs., 14 figs

  13. Physical and Physiological Demands of Recreational Team Handball for Adult Untrained Men.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Póvoas, Susana C A; Castagna, Carlo; Resende, Carlos; Coelho, Eduardo Filipe; Silva, Pedro; Santos, Rute; Seabra, André; Tamames, Juan; Lopes, Mariana; Randers, Morten Bredsgaard; Krustrup, Peter

    2017-01-01

    Lack of motivation to exercise was reported as a major cause of sedentary behavior in adulthood. This descriptive study examines the acute physical and physiological demands of recreational team handball and evaluates whether it could be suggested as an exercise mode for fitness and health enhancement in 33-55-year-old untrained men. Time-motion, heart rate (HR), and blood lactate analyses were obtained from 4 recreational matches. Mean distance covered during the 60 min matches was 6012 ± 428 m. The players changed match activity 386 ± 70 times, of which high-intensity runs and unorthodox movements amounted to 59 ± 18 and 26 ± 26 per match, respectively. The most frequent highly demanding playing actions were jumps and throws. Match average and peak HR were 82 ± 6% and 93 ± 5%  HR max , respectively. Players exercised at intensities between 81 and 90%  HR max for 47% (28 ± 14 min) and >90%  HR max for 24% (14 ± 15 min) of total match time. Match average and peak blood lactate values were 3.6 ± 1.3 and 4.2 ± 1.2 mM, respectively. Recreational team handball is an intermittent high-intensity exercise mode with physical and physiological demands in the range of those found to have a positive effect on aerobic, anaerobic, and musculoskeletal fitness in adult individuals. Training studies considering recreational team handball as a health enhancing intervention are warranted.

  14. Physical and Physiological Demands of Recreational Team Handball for Adult Untrained Men

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Susana C. A. Póvoas

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Lack of motivation to exercise was reported as a major cause of sedentary behavior in adulthood. This descriptive study examines the acute physical and physiological demands of recreational team handball and evaluates whether it could be suggested as an exercise mode for fitness and health enhancement in 33–55-year-old untrained men. Time-motion, heart rate (HR, and blood lactate analyses were obtained from 4 recreational matches. Mean distance covered during the 60 min matches was 6012±428 m. The players changed match activity 386±70 times, of which high-intensity runs and unorthodox movements amounted to 59±18 and 26±26 per match, respectively. The most frequent highly demanding playing actions were jumps and throws. Match average and peak HR were 82±6% and 93±5%  HRmax, respectively. Players exercised at intensities between 81 and 90%  HRmax for 47% (28±14 min and >90%  HRmax for 24% (14±15 min of total match time. Match average and peak blood lactate values were 3.6±1.3 and 4.2±1.2 mM, respectively. Recreational team handball is an intermittent high-intensity exercise mode with physical and physiological demands in the range of those found to have a positive effect on aerobic, anaerobic, and musculoskeletal fitness in adult individuals. Training studies considering recreational team handball as a health enhancing intervention are warranted.

  15. Size-corrected BMD decreases during peak linear growth: implications for fracture incidence during adolescence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faulkner, Robert A; Davison, K Shawn; Bailey, Donald A; Mirwald, Robert L; Baxter-Jones, Adam D G

    2006-12-01

    Peak adolescent fracture incidence at the distal end of the radius coincides with a decline in size-corrected BMD in both boys and girls. Peak gains in bone area preceded peak gains in BMC in a longitudinal sample of boys and girls, supporting the theory that the dissociation between skeletal expansion and skeletal mineralization results in a period of relative bone weakness. The high incidence of fracture in adolescence may be related to a period of relative skeletal fragility resulting from dissociation between bone expansion and bone mineralization during the growing years. The aim of this study was to examine the relationship between changes in size-corrected BMD (BMDsc) and peak distal radius fracture incidence in boys and girls. Subjects were 41 boys and 46 girls measured annually (DXA; Hologic 2000) over the adolescent growth period and again in young adulthood. Ages of peak height velocity (PHV), peak BMC velocity (PBMCV), and peak bone area (BA) velocity (PBAV) were determined for each child. To control for maturational differences, subjects were aligned on PHV. BMDsc was calculated by first regressing the natural logarithms of BMC and BA. The power coefficient (pc) values from this analysis were used as follows: BMDsc = BMC/BA(pc). BMDsc decreased significantly before the age of PHV and then increased until 4 years after PHV. The peak rates in radial fractures (reported from previous work) in both boys and girls coincided with the age of negative velocity in BMDsc; the age of peak BA velocity (PBAV) preceded the age of peak BMC velocity (PBMCV) by 0.5 years in both boys and girls. There is a clear dissociation between PBMCV and PBAV in boys and girls. BMDsc declines before age of PHV before rebounding after PHV. The timing of these events coincides directly with reported fracture rates of the distal end of the radius. Thus, the results support the theory that there is a period of relative skeletal weakness during the adolescent growth period caused, in

  16. Analysis of the need for intermediate and peaking technologies in the year 2000. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barrager, S.M.; Campbell, G.L.

    1980-04-01

    This analysis was conducted to assess the impact of load management on the future need for intermediate- and peak-generating technologies (IPTs) such as combustion turbines, pumped storage, and cycling coal plants. There would be a reduced need for IPTs if load-management activities such as time-of-use pricing, together with customer-owned energy-storage devices, hot-water-heater controls, and interruptible service can economically remove most of the variation from electric power demands. The objective of this analysis is to assess the need for IPTs in an uncertain future, which will probably include load management and time-differentiated electricity prices. The analysis is exploratory in nature and broad in scope. It does not attempt to predict the future or to model precisely the technical characteristics or economic desirability of load management. Rather, its purpose is to provide research and development planners with some basic insights into the order of magnitude of possible hourly demand shifts on a regional basis and to determine the impact of load management on daily and seasonal variations in electricity demand.

  17. The impact of peak oil on tourism in Spain: An input-output analysis of price, demand and economy-wide effects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Logar, I.; van den Bergh, J.C.J.M.

    2013-01-01

    This article examines the potential effects of peak oil on Spanish tourism and indirectly on the rest of the economy. We construct several scenarios of price increases in oil, related fossil fuels and their inflationary effects. These scenarios provide the context for an input-output (I/O) analysis

  18. Year Ahead Demand Forecast of City Natural Gas Using Seasonal Time Series Methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mustafa Akpinar

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Consumption of natural gas, a major clean energy source, increases as energy demand increases. We studied specifically the Turkish natural gas market. Turkey’s natural gas consumption increased as well in parallel with the world‘s over the last decade. This consumption growth in Turkey has led to the formation of a market structure for the natural gas industry. This significant increase requires additional investments since a rise in consumption capacity is expected. One of the reasons for the consumption increase is the user-based natural gas consumption influence. This effect yields imbalances in demand forecasts and if the error rates are out of bounds, penalties may occur. In this paper, three univariate statistical methods, which have not been previously investigated for mid-term year-ahead monthly natural gas forecasting, are used to forecast natural gas demand in Turkey’s Sakarya province. Residential and low-consumption commercial data is used, which may contain seasonality. The goal of this paper is minimizing more or less gas tractions on mid-term consumption while improving the accuracy of demand forecasting. In forecasting models, seasonality and single variable impacts reinforce forecasts. This paper studies time series decomposition, Holt-Winters exponential smoothing and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA methods. Here, 2011–2014 monthly data were prepared and divided into two series. The first series is 2011–2013 monthly data used for finding seasonal effects and model requirements. The second series is 2014 monthly data used for forecasting. For the ARIMA method, a stationary series was prepared and transformation process prior to forecasting was done. Forecasting results confirmed that as the computation complexity of the model increases, forecasting accuracy increases with lower error rates. Also, forecasting errors and the coefficients of determination values give more consistent results. Consequently

  19. Predicting rheological behavior and baking quality of wheat flour using a GlutoPeak test.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rakita, Slađana; Dokić, Ljubica; Dapčević Hadnađev, Tamara; Hadnađev, Miroslav; Torbica, Aleksandra

    2018-06-01

    The purpose of this research was to gain an insight into the ability of the GlutoPeak instrument to predict flour functionality for bread making, as well as to determine which of the GlutoPeak parameters show the best potential in predicting dough rheological behavior and baking performance. Obtained results showed that GlutoPeak parameters correlated better with the indices of extensional rheological tests which consider constant dough hydration than with those which were performed at constant dough consistency. The GlutoPeak test showed that it is suitable for discriminating wheat varieties of good quality from those of poor quality, while the most discriminating index was maximum torque (MT). Moreover, MT value of 50 BU and aggregation energy value of 1,300 GPU were set as limits of wheat flour quality. The backward stepwise regression analysis revealed that a high-level prediction of indices which are highly affected by protein content (gluten content, flour water absorption, and dough tenacity) was achieved by using the GlutoPeak indices. Concerning bread quality, a moderate prediction of specific loaf volume and an intense level prediction of breadcrumb textural properties were accomplished by using the GlutoPeak parameters. The presented results indicated that the application of this quick test in wheat transformation chain for the assessment of baking quality would be useful. Baking test is considered as the most reliable method for assessing wheat-baking quality. However, baking test requires trained stuff, time, and large sample amount. These disadvantages have led to a growing demand to develop new rapid tests which would enable prediction of baked product quality with a limited flour size. Therefore, we tested the possibility of using a GlutoPeak tester to predict loaf volume and breadcrumb textural properties. Discrimination of wheat varieties according to quality with a restricted flour amount was also examined. Furthermore, we proposed the limit

  20. Demand for Agricultural Land in Slovakia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dirgasová Katarína

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available In general, soil is perceived as an unreplaceable and unrenewable natural resource that allows plants, animals and man to live. It is significant in several ways out of which the most important is the production of food for population, the production of fodder for livestock and the production of raw materials for food and light industry. Due to these as well as the other reasons, land becomes the object of competition between different subjects which are trying to get it and use it. The aim of the paper is to map and to characterise the demand for agricultural land at the agricultural land market based on the certificates on fulfilment of the requirements on purchase of agricultural land. Based on the data collected throughout 31 months, it was proved that the demand for agricultural land is influenced by price, land quality, area, fragmentation of land ownership, distance of the offered plot from a county seat and localisation of a given land plot.

  1. Mathematic simulation of mining company’s power demand forecast (by example of “Neryungri” coal strip mine)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Antonenkov, D. V.; Solovev, D. B.

    2017-10-01

    The article covers the aspects of forecasting and consideration of the wholesale market environment in generating the power demand forecast. Major mining companies that operate in conditions of the present day power market have to provide a reliable energy demand request for a certain time period ahead, thus ensuring sufficient reduction of financial losses associated with deviations of the actual power demand from the expected figures. Normally, under the power supply agreement, the consumer is bound to provide a per-month and per-hour request annually. It means that the consumer has to generate one-month-ahead short-term and medium-term hourly forecasts. The authors discovered that empiric distributions of “Yakutugol”, Holding Joint Stock Company, power demand belong to the sustainable rank parameter H-distribution type used for generating forecasts based on extrapolation of such distribution parameters. For this reason they justify the need to apply the mathematic rank analysis in short-term forecasting of the contracted power demand of “Neryungri” coil strip mine being a component of the technocenosis-type system of the mining company “Yakutugol”, Holding JSC.

  2. Modelling seasonal farm labour demand: What can we learn from rural Kakamega district, western Kenya?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vincent Canwat

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Seasonality of agricultural activities causes fluctuation in the quantity of labour consumed by these activities, and yet many rural labour studies in developing countries still treat labour demand in agriculture as if it is the same across different farm operations. To unearth the amount of information hidden by this aggregated analysis, labour demand for specific farm operations was estimated based on data collected from Kakamega District. This analysis shows that increasing household size increases labour demand for planting, weeding and harvesting. Increasing the share of elderly household members has a negligible effect on labour demand for farm activities except for land preparation, with which it is positively related. Participation of primary school-going children in farm activities is the highest in planting and harvesting. Participation in off-farm employment seems to increase labour demand only during peak seasons. The area planted appears to have an insignificant effect on labour demand for land preparation. Planting sugar cane appears to reduce labour demand for weeding and primary processing, but planting tea increases labour demand for planting. Mechanising land preparation only reduces labour demand for land preparation, but it seems to be offset by other labour-intensive farm operations. The distance from water source is positively related to labour demand for land preparation, but the distance to the market is negatively related to labour demand for weeding and harvesting. These observations point to the need for supporting and investing in technological and organisational innovations in agriculture.

  3. Forecasted electric power demands for the Delmarva Power and Light Company. Volume 1 and Volume 2. Documentation manual

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Estomin, S.L.; Beach, J.E.

    1990-10-01

    The two-volume report presents the results of an econometric forecast of peak load and electric power demands for the Delmarva Power and Light Company (DP ampersand L) through the year 2008. Separate sets of models were estimated for the three jurisdictions served by DP ampersand L: Delaware, Maryland and Virginia. For both Delaware and Maryland, econometric equations were estimated for residential, commercial, industrial, and streetlighting sales. For Virginia, equations were estimated for residential, commercial plus industrial, and streetlighting sales; separate industrial and commercial equations were not estimated for Virginia due to the relatively small size of DP ampersand L's Virginia Industrial load. Wholesale sales were econometrically estimated for the DP ampersand L system as a whole. In addition to the energy sales models, an econometric model of annual (summer) peak demand was estimated for the Company

  4. DSM [demand-side management] opportunities in Alberta: An economist's perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Woodward, R.S.

    1990-01-01

    In Alberta, utility companies are placing increasing attention on demand-side management (DSM) as one option for meeting future demand. Some basic economic principles are provided to yield a guideline on how much a utility should be spending on DSM initiatives. For the case of financial incentives to customers, it is shown that subsidies based on sound economic principles will enable the utility to charge lower overall rates to customers receiving the subsidy without raising other customers' rates. Moving outside of a well-understood market-based system and into a fully centralized planning approach to DSM eliminates a critical link between utilities and their customers. In Alberta, DSM measures appropriate in other regions will not be appropriate due to the province's unique supply and demand characteristics. Most of Alberta's electricity supply comes from low-cost coal-fired plants. On the demand-side, there is a significant concentration of large industrial and commercial consumers, notably in the oil and gas industry, and there is essentially no demand for electric heating in homes since natural gas is very abundant. The Alberta integrated power system currently operates at a load factor of ca 77%, reflecting the large industrial demand and the absence of a winter peaking effect associated with electrical heating requirements. A relatively small difference in embedded and incremental electricity supply costs means that utilities have little to spend on DSM programs. The identification of cost-effective DSM opportunities, most of which are likely to be found in the industrial sector, requires a considerable amount of detailed information on consumer behavior and close collaboration between utility and customer

  5. Relationship between alpine tourism demand and hot summer air temperatures associated with climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rebetez, M.; Serquet, G.

    2010-09-01

    We quantified the impacts of hot summer air temperatures on tourism in the Swiss Alps by analyzing the relationship between temperature and overnight stays in 40 Alpine resorts. Several temperature and insolation thresholds were tested to detect their relationship to summer tourism. Our results reveal significant correlations between the number of nights spent in mountain resorts and hot temperatures at lower elevations. Alpine resorts nearest to cities are most sensitive to hot temperatures. This is probably because reactions to hot episodes take place on a short-term basis as heat waves remain relatively rare. The correlation in June is stronger compared to the other months, probably because school holidays and the peak domestic tourist demand in summer usually takes place in July and August. Our results suggest that alpine tourist resorts could benefit from hotter temperatures at lower elevations under future climates. Tourists already react on a short-term basis to hot days and spend more nights in hotels in mountain resorts. If heat waves become more regular, it seems likely that tourists choose to stay at alpine resorts more frequently and for longer periods.

  6. Seasonal spring peaks of suicide in victims with and without prior history of hospitalization for mood disorders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Postolache, Teodor T; Mortensen, Preben B; Tonelli, Leonardo H; Jiao, Xiaolong; Frangakis, Constantin; Soriano, Joseph J; Qin, Ping

    2010-02-01

    Seasonal spring peaks of suicide are highly replicated, but their origin is poorly understood. As the peak of suicide in spring could be a consequence of decompensation of mood disorders in spring, we hypothesized that prior history of mood disorders is predictively associated with suicide in spring. We analyzed the monthly rates of suicide based upon all 37,987 suicide cases in the Danish Cause of Death Registry from 1970 to 2001. History of mood disorder was obtained from the Danish Psychiatric Central Register and socioeconomical data from the Integrated Database for Labour Market Research. The monthly rate ratio of suicide relative to December was estimated using a Poisson regression. Seasonality of suicide between individuals with versus without hospitalization for mood disorders was compared using conditional logistic regression analyses with adjustment for income, marital status, place of residence, and method of suicide. A statistically significant spring peak in suicide was observed in both groups. A history of mood disorders was associated with an increased risk of suicide in spring (for males: RR=1.18, 95% CI 1.07-1.31; for females: RR=1.20, 95% CI 1.10-1.32). History of axis II disorders was not analyzed. Danish socioeconomical realities have only limited generalizability. The results support the need to further investigate if exacerbation of mood disorders in spring triggers seasonal peaks of suicide. Identifying triggers for seasonal spring peaks in suicide may lead to uncovering novel risk factors and therapeutic targets for suicide prevention. 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. The impacts of weather variations on energy demand and carbon emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Considine, T.J.

    2000-01-01

    This paper examines the impacts of climate fluctuations on carbon emissions using monthly models of US energy demand. The econometric analysis estimates price, income, and weather elasticities of short-run energy demand. Our model simulations suggest that warmer climate conditions in the US since 1982 slightly reduced carbon emissions in the US. Lower energy use associated with reduced heating requirements offsets higher fuel consumption to meet increased air-conditioning needs. The analysis also suggests that climate change policies should allow some variance in carbon emissions due to short-term weather variations

  8. Changes in knee joint load indices from before to 12 months after arthroscopic partial meniscectomy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorlund, Jonas Bloch; Holsgaard-Larsen, Anders; Creaby, M W

    2016-01-01

    with the contra-lateral leg. METHODS: We estimated indices of knee joint loading (external peak knee adduction moment (KAM), KAM impulse and peak knee flexion moment (KFM)) normalized to body size (i.e., body mass (BM) and height (HT)) using 3D gait analysis in 23 patients (17 men, mean (SD) 46.2 (6.4) years, BMI...... 25.8 (3.4) kg/m(2)) without radiographic knee OA before and 12 months after medial APM. Static alignment was assessed by radiography and self-reported outcomes by Knee injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score (KOOS). RESULTS: Peak KAM and KAM impulse increased in the APM leg compared to the contra......-lateral leg from before to 12 months after surgery (change difference: 0.38 Nm/BM*HT% 95% CI 0.01 to 0.76 (P = 0.049) and 0.20 Nm*s/BM*HT% 95% CI 0.10 to 0.30 (P

  9. The composition of demand for newly launched vaccines: results from the pneumococcal and rotavirus vaccine introductions in Ethiopia and Malawi.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, B Adam; Kidane, Teklay; Chirwa, Geoffrey; Tesfaye, Neghist; Prescott, Marta R; Scotney, Soleine T; Valle, Moussa; Abebe, Sintayehu; Tambuli, Adija; Malewezi, Bridget; Mohammed, Tahir; Kobayashi, Emily; Wootton, Emily; Wong, Renee; Dosani, Rahima; Subramaniam, Hamsa; Joseph, Jessica; Yavuz, Elif; Apple, Aliza; Le Tallec, Yann; Kang'ethe, Alice

    2016-06-01

    Understanding post-launch demand for new vaccines can help countries maximize the benefits of immunization programmes. In particular, low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) should ensure adequate resource planning with regards to stock consumption and service delivery for new vaccines, whereas global suppliers must produce enough vaccines to meet demand. If a country underestimates the number of children seeking vaccination, a stock-out of commodities will create missed opportunities for saving lives. We describe the post-launch demand for the first dose of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV1) in Ethiopia and Malawi and the first dose of rotavirus vaccine (Rota1) in Malawi, with focus on the new birth cohort and the 'backlog cohort', comprised of older children who are still eligible for vaccination at the time of launch. PCV1 and Rota1 uptake were compared with the demand for the first dose of pentavalent vaccine (Penta1), a routine immunization that targets the same age group and immunization schedule. In the first year, the total demand for PCV1 was 37% greater than that of Penta1 in Ethiopia and 59% greater in Malawi. In the first 6 months, the demand of Rota1 was only 5.9% greater than Penta1 demand in Malawi. Over the first three post-introduction months, 70.7% of PCV1 demand in Ethiopia and 71.5% of demand in Malawi came from children in the backlog cohort, whereas only 28.0% of Rota1 demand in Malawi was from the backlog cohort. The composition of demand was impacted by time elapsed since vaccine introduction and age restrictions. Evidence suggests that countries' plans should account for the impact of backlog demand, especially in the first 3 months post-introduction. LMICs should request for higher stock volumes when compared with routine needs, plan social mobilization activities to reach the backlog cohort and allocate human resources and cold chain capacity to accommodate high demand following vaccine introduction. © The Author 2016. Published by

  10. Modeling Ontario regional electricity system demand using a mixed fixed and random coefficients approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hsiao, C.; Mountain, D.C.; Chan, M.W.L.; Tsui, K.Y. (University of Southern California, Los Angeles (USA) McMaster Univ., Hamilton, ON (Canada) Chinese Univ. of Hong Kong, Shatin)

    1989-12-01

    In examining the municipal peak and kilowatt-hour demand for electricity in Ontario, the issue of homogeneity across geographic regions is explored. A common model across municipalities and geographic regions cannot be supported by the data. Considered are various procedures which deal with this heterogeneity and yet reduce the multicollinearity problems associated with regional specific demand formulations. The recommended model controls for regional differences assuming that the coefficients of regional-seasonal specific factors are fixed and different while the coefficients of economic and weather variables are random draws from a common population for any one municipality by combining the information on all municipalities through a Bayes procedure. 8 tabs., 41 refs.

  11. Considering supply and demand of electric energy in life cycle assessments - a review of current methodologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rehberger, M.; Hiete, M.

    2015-01-01

    A stable power grid requires a balance between electricity supply and demand. To compensate for changes in the demand the network operator puts on or takes off power plants from the net. Peak load plants operate only at times of high electricity demand. As levels for air pollutants emissions are typically lower for peak load plants for reasons of cost-effectiveness, one could argue that a unit of electric energy consumed during peak load has always been associated with a higher environmental impact than at other times. Furthermore, renewable energy technologies, smart approaches for improving the matching between electricity consumption and supply and new products such as electric vehicles or net zero emission buildings gain in importance. In life cycle assessment (LCA) environmental impacts associated with the production and possibly transmission of electricity are most often assessed based on temporally averaged national electricity mixes as electricity flows cannot be traced back to their origin. Neither fluctuations in the supply structure nor the composition of energy supply at a certain moment or regional differences are accounted for. A literature review of approaches for handling electricity in LCA is carried out to compare strengths and weaknesses of the approaches. A better understanding and knowledge about the source of electricity at a given time and place might be valuable information for further reducing environmental impacts, e.g. by shifting electricity consumption to times with ample supply of renewables. Integrating such information into LCA will allow a fairer assessment of a variety of new products which accept a lower energy efficiency to achieve a better integration of renewables into the grid. (authors)

  12. PolyaPeak: Detecting Transcription Factor Binding Sites from ChIP-seq Using Peak Shape Information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Hao; Ji, Hongkai

    2014-01-01

    ChIP-seq is a powerful technology for detecting genomic regions where a protein of interest interacts with DNA. ChIP-seq data for mapping transcription factor binding sites (TFBSs) have a characteristic pattern: around each binding site, sequence reads aligned to the forward and reverse strands of the reference genome form two separate peaks shifted away from each other, and the true binding site is located in between these two peaks. While it has been shown previously that the accuracy and resolution of binding site detection can be improved by modeling the pattern, efficient methods are unavailable to fully utilize that information in TFBS detection procedure. We present PolyaPeak, a new method to improve TFBS detection by incorporating the peak shape information. PolyaPeak describes peak shapes using a flexible Pólya model. The shapes are automatically learnt from the data using Minorization-Maximization (MM) algorithm, then integrated with the read count information via a hierarchical model to distinguish true binding sites from background noises. Extensive real data analyses show that PolyaPeak is capable of robustly improving TFBS detection compared with existing methods. An R package is freely available. PMID:24608116

  13. Peak-to-average power ratio reduction in interleaved OFDMA systems

    KAUST Repository

    Al-Shuhail, Shamael; Ali, Anum; Al-Naffouri, Tareq Y.

    2015-01-01

    Orthogonal frequency division multiple access (OFDMA) systems suffer from several impairments, and communication system engineers use powerful signal processing tools to combat these impairments and to keep up with the capacity/rate demands. One of these impairments is high peak-to-average power ratio (PAPR) and clipping is the simplest peak reduction scheme. However, in general, when multiple users are subjected to clipping, frequency domain clipping distortions spread over the spectrum of all users. This results in compromised performance and hence clipping distortions need to be mitigated at the receiver. Mitigating these distortions in multiuser case is not simple and requires complex clipping mitigation procedures at the receiver. However, it was observed that interleaved OFDMA presents a special structure that results in only self-inflicted clipping distortions (i.e., the distortions of a particular user do not interfere with other users). In this work, we prove analytically that distortions do not spread over multiple users (while utilizing interleaved carrier assignment in OFDMA) and construct a compressed sensing system that utilizes the sparsity of the clipping distortions and recovers it on each user. We provide numerical results that validate our analysis and show promising performance for the proposed clipping recovery scheme.

  14. Peak-to-average power ratio reduction in interleaved OFDMA systems

    KAUST Repository

    Al-Shuhail, Shamael

    2015-12-07

    Orthogonal frequency division multiple access (OFDMA) systems suffer from several impairments, and communication system engineers use powerful signal processing tools to combat these impairments and to keep up with the capacity/rate demands. One of these impairments is high peak-to-average power ratio (PAPR) and clipping is the simplest peak reduction scheme. However, in general, when multiple users are subjected to clipping, frequency domain clipping distortions spread over the spectrum of all users. This results in compromised performance and hence clipping distortions need to be mitigated at the receiver. Mitigating these distortions in multiuser case is not simple and requires complex clipping mitigation procedures at the receiver. However, it was observed that interleaved OFDMA presents a special structure that results in only self-inflicted clipping distortions (i.e., the distortions of a particular user do not interfere with other users). In this work, we prove analytically that distortions do not spread over multiple users (while utilizing interleaved carrier assignment in OFDMA) and construct a compressed sensing system that utilizes the sparsity of the clipping distortions and recovers it on each user. We provide numerical results that validate our analysis and show promising performance for the proposed clipping recovery scheme.

  15. Tim Peake and Britain's road to space

    CERN Document Server

    Seedhouse, Erik

    2017-01-01

    This book puts the reader in the flight suit of Britain’s first male astronaut, Tim Peake. It chronicles his life, along with the Principia mission and the down-to-the-last-bolt descriptions of life aboard the ISS, by way of the hurdles placed by the British government and the rigors of training at Russia’s Star City military base. In addition, this book discusses the learning curves required in astronaut and mission training and the complexity of the technologies required to launch an astronaut and keep them alive for months on end. This book underscores the fact that technology and training, unlike space, do not exist in a vacuum; complex technical systems, like the ISS, interact with the variables of human personality, and the cultural background of the astronauts. .

  16. Can reserve additions in mature crude oil provinces attenuate supply-side peak oil?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Okullo, Samuel; Reynes, Frederic

    2010-09-15

    More often, oil supply has been modeled on the basis of resource availability and demand. The impact of strategy between oil producers has largely been ignored or overly simplified. In this paper, we formulate a model that embodies a weak and strong OPEC for varied rates of reserve additions. With this economic equilibrium model which has the capability to generate a supply side peak in oil production, we show that although reserves of conventional crude oil may seem abundant. OPEC has the ability to lead to substantial crude oil reserve depletion in non-OPEC countries by 2050 given likely depletion rates.

  17. Duration of the peak of adolescent growth spurt in class i and ii malocclusion subjects using a cervical vertebrae maturation analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salazar-Lazo, Rodrigo; Arriola-Guillén, Luis E; Flores-Mir, Carlos

    2014-01-01

    The aim of the present work was to determine the duration of the adolescent peak growth spurt using cervical vertebral maturation analysis in class I and II malocclusion subjects. The study was conducted on a sample which consisted of 154 lateral cephalograms of children and adolescents aged 9-15 years (84 females and 70 males). The evaluation of skeletal maturation stage was performed using a visual morphological analysis of CS3 and CS4 cervical vertebrae. The sagittal skeletal relation was evaluated according to Steiner analysis. Descriptive statistics were used to summarize chronological age in each malocclusion group and for each CS3 and CS4 skeletal maturation stage. Due to a lack of normal distribution, comparisons of CS3 and CS4 age intervals on class I and II subjects were compared using the Mann-Whitney U test for independent samples. The results show that the mean duration of the adolescent peak growth spurt was 10 months between CS3 and CS4 stages in class I malocclusion subjects, whereas in class II malocclusion patients the duration was 6 months. This difference of 4 months was statistically significant (p<0.001). Finally, a clinically significant difference of 4 months in the duration of the adolescent peak growth spurt for class I and II malocclusion subjects was identified.

  18. Intra-Seasonal Monthly Oscillations in Stratospheric NCEP Data and Model Results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mayr, H. G.; Mengel, J. G.; Huang, F. T.; Nash, E. R.

    2009-01-01

    Intra-seasonal oscillations (ISO) are observed in the zonal-mean of mesospheric wind and temperature measurements-and the numerical spectral model (NSM) generates such oscillations. Relatively large temperature ISO are evident also in stratospheric CPC (NCEP) data at high latitudes, where the NSM produces amplitudes around 3 K at 30 km. Analyzing the NCEP data for the years 1996-2006, we find in Fourier spectra signatures of oscillations with periods between 1.7 and 3 months. With statistical confidence levels exceeding 70%, the spectral features are induced by nonlinear interactions involving the annual and semi-annual variations. The synthesized data show for the 10-year average that the temperature ISO peak in winter, having amplitudes close to 4 K. The synthesized complete spectrum for periods around 2 months produces oscillations, varying from year to year, which can reach peak amplitudes of 15 and 5 K respectively at northern and southern polar latitudes.

  19. PVC makers study expansions to meet demand growth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hunter, D.; Coeyman, M.

    1993-01-01

    As prospects for the polyvinyl chloride (PVC) industry continue to improve, the next batch of capacity increases is being studied. Vista Chemical (Houston) sees an opportunity to achieve what company president James R. Ball calls the lowest-cost capacity addition in the market, by debottlenecking its PVC plants at Aberdeen, MS and Oklahoma City. That would increase capacity 40%, adding 300 million lbs/year to Vista's 830 million lbs/year. US demand for PVC grew 12.5% through the first 10 months of 1992, to 7.3 billion lbs, according to the latest figures available from the Society of the Plastics Industry. Alan Bailey, Oxy-Chem's executive v.p./polymers and plastics, predicts a good demand year in 1993 - better even than 1992, driven by an upward trend in housing starts and a recovering economy

  20. Application of battery-based storage systems in household-demand smoothening in electricity-distribution grids

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Purvins, Arturs; Papaioannou, Ioulia T.; Debarberis, Luigi

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: ► Battery system application in demand smoothening in distribution grids is analysed. ► Five European countries are studied with and without high photovoltaic deployment. ► A sensitivity analysis for different battery system parameters is performed. ► A simple battery system management is sufficient for low demand smoothening. ► More elaborate management is required for high demand smoothening. - Abstract: This article analyses in technical terms the application of battery-based storage systems for household-demand smoothening in electricity-distribution grids. The analysis includes case studies of Denmark, Portugal, Greece, France and Italy. A high penetration of photovoltaic systems in distribution grids is considered as an additional scenario. A sensitivity analysis is performed in order to examine the smoothening effect of daily demand profiles for different configurations of the battery system. In general, battery-storage systems with low rated power and low battery capacity can smooth the demand sufficiently with the aid of a simple management process. For example, with 1 kW of peak demand, a 30–45% decrease in the variability of the daily demand profile can be achieved with a battery system of 0.1 kW rated power and up to 0.6 kW h battery capacity. However, further smoothening requires higher battery-system capacity and power. In this case, more elaborate management is also needed to use the battery system efficiently.

  1. Peak capacity and peak capacity per unit time in capillary and microchip zone electrophoresis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foley, Joe P; Blackney, Donna M; Ennis, Erin J

    2017-11-10

    The origins of the peak capacity concept are described and the important contributions to the development of that concept in chromatography and electrophoresis are reviewed. Whereas numerous quantitative expressions have been reported for one- and two-dimensional separations, most are focused on chromatographic separations and few, if any, quantitative unbiased expressions have been developed for capillary or microchip zone electrophoresis. Making the common assumption that longitudinal diffusion is the predominant source of zone broadening in capillary electrophoresis, analytical expressions for the peak capacity are derived, first in terms of migration time, diffusion coefficient, migration distance, and desired resolution, and then in terms of the remaining underlying fundamental parameters (electric field, electroosmotic and electrophoretic mobilities) that determine the migration time. The latter expressions clearly illustrate the direct square root dependence of peak capacity on electric field and migration distance and the inverse square root dependence on solute diffusion coefficient. Conditions that result in a high peak capacity will result in a low peak capacity per unit time and vice-versa. For a given symmetrical range of relative electrophoretic mobilities for co- and counter-electroosmotic species (cations and anions), the peak capacity increases with the square root of the electric field even as the temporal window narrows considerably, resulting in a significant reduction in analysis time. Over a broad relative electrophoretic mobility interval [-0.9, 0.9], an approximately two-fold greater amount of peak capacity can be generated for counter-electroosmotic species although it takes about five-fold longer to do so, consistent with the well-known bias in migration time and resolving power for co- and counter-electroosmotic species. The optimum lower bound of the relative electrophoretic mobility interval [μ r,Z , μ r,A ] that provides the maximum

  2. Modelling Per Capita Water Demand Change to Support System Planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia, M. E.; Islam, S.

    2016-12-01

    Water utilities have a number of levers to influence customer water usage. These include levers to proactively slow demand growth over time such as building and landscape codes as well as levers to decrease demands quickly in response to water stress including price increases, education campaigns, water restrictions, and incentive programs. Even actions aimed at short term reductions can result in long term water usage declines when substantial changes are made in water efficiency, as in incentives for fixture replacement or turf removal, or usage patterns such as permanent lawn watering restrictions. Demand change is therefore linked to hydrological conditions and to the effects of past management decisions - both typically included in water supply planning models. Yet, demand is typically incorporated exogenously using scenarios or endogenously using only price, though utilities also use rules and incentives issued in response to water stress and codes specifying standards for new construction to influence water usage. Explicitly including these policy levers in planning models enables concurrent testing of infrastructure and policy strategies and illuminates interactions between the two. The City of Las Vegas is used as a case study to develop and demonstrate this modeling approach. First, a statistical analysis of system data was employed to rule out alternate hypotheses of per capita demand decrease such as changes in population density and economic structure. Next, four demand sub-models were developed including one baseline model in which demand is a function of only price. The sub-models were then calibrated and tested using monthly data from 1997 to 2012. Finally, the best performing sub-model was integrated with a full supply and demand model. The results highlight the importance of both modeling water demand dynamics endogenously and taking a broader view of the variables influencing demand change.

  3. Modeling and forecasting of electrical power demands for capacity planning

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Al-Shobaki, Salman [Department of Industrial Engineering, Hashemite University, Zarka 13115 (Jordan); Mohsen, Mousa [Department of Mechanical Engineering, Hashemite University, Zarka 13115 (Jordan)

    2008-11-15

    This paper describes the development of forecasting models to predict future generation and electrical power consumption in Jordan. This is critical to production cost since power is generated by burning expensive imported oil. Currently, the National Electric Power Company (NEPCO) is using regression models that only accounts for trend dynamics in their planning of loads and demand levels. The models are simplistic and are based on generated energy historical levels. They produce results on yearly bases and do not account for monthly variability in demand levels. The paper presents two models, one based on the generated energy data and the other is based on the consumed energy data. The models account for trend, monthly seasonality, and cycle dynamics. Both models are compared to NEPCO's model and indicate that NEPCO is producing energy at levels higher than needed (5.25%) thus increasing the loss in generated energy. The developed models also show a 13% difference between the generated energy and the consumed energy that is lost due to transmission line and in-house consumption. (author)

  4. Modeling and forecasting of electrical power demands for capacity planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Al-Shobaki, Salman; Mohsen, Mousa

    2008-01-01

    This paper describes the development of forecasting models to predict future generation and electrical power consumption in Jordan. This is critical to production cost since power is generated by burning expensive imported oil. Currently, the National Electric Power Company (NEPCO) is using regression models that only accounts for trend dynamics in their planning of loads and demand levels. The models are simplistic and are based on generated energy historical levels. They produce results on yearly bases and do not account for monthly variability in demand levels. The paper presents two models, one based on the generated energy data and the other is based on the consumed energy data. The models account for trend, monthly seasonality, and cycle dynamics. Both models are compared to NEPCO's model and indicate that NEPCO is producing energy at levels higher than needed (5.25%) thus increasing the loss in generated energy. The developed models also show a 13% difference between the generated energy and the consumed energy that is lost due to transmission line and in-house consumption

  5. Aggregated Demand Modelling Including Distributed Generation, Storage and Demand Response

    OpenAIRE

    Marzooghi, Hesamoddin; Hill, David J.; Verbic, Gregor

    2014-01-01

    It is anticipated that penetration of renewable energy sources (RESs) in power systems will increase further in the next decades mainly due to environmental issues. In the long term of several decades, which we refer to in terms of the future grid (FG), balancing between supply and demand will become dependent on demand actions including demand response (DR) and energy storage. So far, FG feasibility studies have not considered these new demand-side developments for modelling future demand. I...

  6. Changes in Peak Flow Value during Immunotherapy Administration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saporta, D.

    2012-01-01

    Nasal allergies are prevalent affecting a large percentage of the population. Not only the upper respiratory tract but the whole body is involved. Allergies produce morbidity (and even occasional mortality) as they can lead to asthma development, and increased number of accidents. Immunotherapy results can be evaluated by following symptom scores, medication use, and objective measurements. Using a Peak Flow Meter (Pf) to evaluate immunotherapy results, it became evident that patients with and without asthma exhibited an improvement in the Peak Flow (PF) value, suggesting that lower airway involvement in allergic patients could be more prevalent than assumed. A consecutive chart review was performed including patients of any age with nasal allergies (with or without asthma) treated with immunotherapy for at least 6 months that had at least 2 complete evaluations. When immunotherapy was successful, most patients exhibited an increase in the PF value regardless of asthma status. A very significant finding was that most allergy sufferers may have lower airway inflammation. The use of the PF value to assess immunotherapy results and the potential failure to diagnose asthma in allergy sufferers are discussed. A better diagnosis of lower airway inflammation could be substantial in the management of these patients pulmonary function

  7. Load kick-back effects due to activation of demand response in view of distribution grid operation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Han, Xue; Sossan, Fabrizio; Bindner, Henrik W.

    2014-01-01

    . The paper has shown how aggregated consumption dynamics introduce new peaks in the system due to the synchronous behaviors of a portfolio of homogeneous DSRs, which is instructed by the flexibility management system. This dynamic effect is recognized as load kick-back effect. The impact of load kick......-back effects onto the distribution grid is analysed in this paper by establishing scenarios based on the estimation of DSR penetration levels from the system operator. The results indicate some risks that the activation of demand response may create critical peaks in the local grid due to kick-back effects....

  8. Study on reduction of consumption and peak demand of electric power used in residential houses with solar heating and PV systems; Solar house no fuka heijunka to energy sakugen koka ni kansuru kenkyu

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Udagawa, M.; Endo, T. [Kogakuin University, Tokyo (Japan)

    1994-12-08

    A model house was simulated to reduce the consumption and peak demand for the photovoltaic power generation system, and solar heat air heating and hot water supply system in the solar house. As a type of construction, both wooden construction and reinforced concrete (RC) construction were selected with a total floor area of 125m{sup 2}. All the rooms were equipped with an air conditioner by heat pump from the air thermal source. A solar heat floor heater was simultaneously installed on the first floor. The hot water supply load was 4.8MWh per year. A commercial grid-connected on-site system was applied to the photovoltaic power generation with a 20m{sup 2} wide monocrystalline Si solar cell panel. As for the fluctuation in power load, the peak at the time of rising is more reduced in the RC house than in the wooden house, because the former is smaller in temperature fluctuation than the latter during the intermittence of air conditioning (as per the specified operational schedule). Therefore, the power is more leveled off in the former than in the latter. Between both, difference was hardly made in energy consumption per year. The ratio of dependency was 47% upon the photovoltaic power generation system, while it was 50% and 77%, under the air heating power load and hot water supply power load, respectively, upon the solar heat air heating and hot water supply system, so that both systems were considerably effective in saving the energy. 5 refs., 7 figs., 1 tab.

  9. 2015 California Demand Response Potential Study - Charting California’s Demand Response Future. Interim Report on Phase 1 Results

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alstone, Peter; Potter, Jennifer; Piette, Mary Ann; Schwartz, Peter; Berger, Michael A.; Dunn, Laurel N.; Smith, Sarah J.; Sohn, Michael D.; Aghajanzadeh, Arian; Stensson, Sofia; Szinai, Julia

    2016-04-01

    Demand response (DR) is an important resource for keeping the electricity grid stable and efficient; deferring upgrades to generation, transmission, and distribution systems; and providing other customer economic benefits. This study estimates the potential size and cost of the available DR resource for California’s three investor-owned utilities (IOUs), as the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) evaluates how to enhance the role of DR in meeting California’s resource planning needs and operational requirements. As the state forges a clean energy future, the contributions of wind and solar electricity from centralized and distributed generation will fundamentally change the power grid’s operational dynamics. This transition requires careful planning to ensure sufficient capacity is available with the right characteristics – flexibility and fast response – to meet reliability needs. Illustrated is a snapshot of how net load (the difference between demand and intermittent renewables) is expected to shift. Increasing contributions from renewable generation introduces steeper ramps and a shift, into the evening, of the hours that drive capacity needs. These hours of peak capacity need are indicated by the black dots on the plots. Ultimately this study quantifies the ability and the cost of using DR resources to help meet the capacity need at these forecasted critical hours in the state.

  10. Peak-by-peak correction of Ge(Li) gamma-ray spectra for photopeaks from background

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cutshall, N H; Larsen, I L [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (USA)

    1980-12-01

    Background photopeaks can interfere with accurate measurement of low levels of radionuclides by gamma-ray spectrometry. A flowchart for peak-by-peak correction of sample spectra to produce accurate results is presented.

  11. Physical and Physiological Demands of Recreational Team Handball for Adult Untrained Men

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Póvoas, Susana C A; Castagna, Carlo; Resende, Carlos

    2017-01-01

    Lack of motivation to exercise was reported as a major cause of sedentary behavior in adulthood. This descriptive study examines the acute physical and physiological demands of recreational team handball and evaluates whether it could be suggested as an exercise mode for fitness and health......%  HRmax for 24% (14 ± 15 min) of total match time. Match average and peak blood lactate values were 3.6 ± 1.3 and 4.2 ± 1.2 mM, respectively. Recreational team handball is an intermittent high-intensity exercise mode with physical and physiological demands in the range of those found to have a positive...... effect on aerobic, anaerobic, and musculoskeletal fitness in adult individuals. Training studies considering recreational team handball as a health enhancing intervention are warranted....

  12. Peaking-factor of PWR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morioka, Noboru; Kato, Yasuji; Yokoi, M.

    1975-01-01

    Output peaking factor often plays an important role in the safety and operation of nuclear reactors. The meaning of the peaking factor of PWRs is categorized into two features or the peaking factor in core (FQ-core) and the peaking factor on the basis of accident analysis (or FQ-limit). FQ-core is the actual peaking factor realized in nuclear core at the time of normal operation, and FQ-limit should be evaluated from loss of coolant accident and other abnormal conditions. If FQ-core is lower than FQ-limit, the reactor may be operated at full load, but if FQ-core is larger than FQ-limit, reactor output should be controlled lower than FQ-limit. FQ-core has two kinds of values, or the one on the basis of nuclear design, and the other actually measured in reactor operation. The first FQ-core should be named as FQ-core-design and the latter as FQ-core-measured. The numerical evaluation of FQ-core-design is as follows; FQ-core-design of three-dimensions is synthesized with FQ-core horizontal value (X-Y) and FQ-core vertical value, the former one is calculated with ASSY-CORE code, and the latter one with one dimensional diffusion code. For the evaluation of FQ-core-measured, on-site data observation from nuclear reactor instrumentation or off-site data observation is used. (Iwase, T.)

  13. Peak-by-peak correction of Ge(Li) gamma-ray spectra for photopeaks from background

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cutshall, N.H.; Larsen, I.L.

    1980-01-01

    Background photopeaks can interfere with accurate measurement of low levels of radionuclides by gamma-ray spectrometry. A flowchart for peak-by-peak correction of sample spectra to produce accurate results is presented. (orig.)

  14. Electric Car Users’ Time of Charging Problem under Peak Load Pricing When Delay in Charging Time Involves Uncertain Cost

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fetene, Gebeyehu Manie

    The problem of peak load arises when demand fluctuates over time while the pro- duction technology is not flexible (or making it flexible is economically inefficient) and/or when a product is non-storable (or storage cost is huge). Peak load is a com- mon problem in consumption of public utilities......, on the one hand, observed cost saving benefit of postponing the time of charging to off-peak lower fee of charging and, on the other hand, the cost of delay in departure time for planned trips and uncertain cost of late charging associated with likelihood occur- rence of unanticipated trip before the car...... of electricity. The electric vehicle (EV) users choice of time of charging problem under PLP is different from that of general households using energy for house appliances since there is uncertain cost to the former as- sociated with likelihood occurrence of unanticipated trips such as visiting hospital...

  15. Price elasticity of demand for psychiatric consultation in a Nigerian psychiatric service.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Esan, Oluyomi

    2016-12-01

    This paper addresses price elasticity of demand (PED) in a region where most patients make payments for consultations out of pocket. PED is a measure of the responsiveness of the quantity demanded of goods or services to changes in price. The study was done in the context of an outpatient psychiatric clinic in a sub -Saharan African country. The study was performed at the University College Hospital (UCH), Ibadan, Nigeria. Aggregate data were collected on weekly clinic attendance over a 24-month period October 2008 - September 2010 representing 12 months before, to 12months after a 67% increase in price of outpatient psychiatric consultation. The average weekly clinic attendance prior to the increase was compared to the average clinic attendance after the price increase. Arc-PED for consultation was also estimated. Clinic attendance dropped immediately and significantly in the weeks following the price increase. There was a 34.4% reduction in average weekly clinic attendance. Arc-PED for psychiatric consultation was -0.85. In comparison to reported PED on health care goods and services, this study finds a relatively high PED in psychiatric consultation following an increase in price of user fees of psychiatric consultation.

  16. Evaluation of different time domain peak models using extreme learning machine-based peak detection for EEG signal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adam, Asrul; Ibrahim, Zuwairie; Mokhtar, Norrima; Shapiai, Mohd Ibrahim; Cumming, Paul; Mubin, Marizan

    2016-01-01

    Various peak models have been introduced to detect and analyze peaks in the time domain analysis of electroencephalogram (EEG) signals. In general, peak model in the time domain analysis consists of a set of signal parameters, such as amplitude, width, and slope. Models including those proposed by Dumpala, Acir, Liu, and Dingle are routinely used to detect peaks in EEG signals acquired in clinical studies of epilepsy or eye blink. The optimal peak model is the most reliable peak detection performance in a particular application. A fair measure of performance of different models requires a common and unbiased platform. In this study, we evaluate the performance of the four different peak models using the extreme learning machine (ELM)-based peak detection algorithm. We found that the Dingle model gave the best performance, with 72 % accuracy in the analysis of real EEG data. Statistical analysis conferred that the Dingle model afforded significantly better mean testing accuracy than did the Acir and Liu models, which were in the range 37-52 %. Meanwhile, the Dingle model has no significant difference compared to Dumpala model.

  17. Generation adequacy report on the electricity supply-demand balance in France - 2012 edition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2012-01-01

    After an introduction presenting the objective of this report and the method used for the forecasts, this document proposes, first, an analysis of the medium-term evolution of: 1 - electricity consumption (past trends, medium-term perspectives, medium-term consumption scenarios); 2 - electricity supply (nuclear production, centralised and decentralised production from fossil-fueled power plants, hydro-power, wind-power and photovoltaic production, peak-load management); 3 - supply and demand balance (probabilistic approach, reference scenario, scenario sensitivity with respect to the demand). Then it presents the long-term determining factors (socio-economic context, energy efficiency, energy mix, interconnected grids development) and the long-term prospective scenarios (medium- and strong-consumption, new-mix, low growth). Finally, a summary and a comparison with the 2011 report is made

  18. Influencing Factors and Development Trend Analysis of China Electric Grid Investment Demand Based on a Panel Co-Integration Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jinchao Li

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Electric grid investment demand analysis is significant to reasonably arranging construction funds for the electric grid and reduce costs. This paper used the panel data of electric grid investment from 23 provinces of China between 2004 and 2016 as samples to analyze the influence between electric grid investment demand and GDP, population scale, social electricity consumption, installed electrical capacity, and peak load based on co-integration tests. We find that GDP and peak load have positive influences on electric grid investment demand, but the impact of population scale, social electricity consumption, and installed electrical capacity on electric grid investment is not remarkable. We divide different regions in China into the eastern region, central region, and western region to analyze influence factors of electric grid investment, finally obtaining key factors in the eastern, central, and western regions. In the end, according to the analysis of key factors, we make a prediction about China’s electric grid investment for 2020 in different scenarios. The results offer a certain understanding for the development trend of China’s electric grid investment and contribute to the future development of electric grid investment.

  19. Modelling Commodity Demands and Labour Supply with m-Demands

    OpenAIRE

    Browning, Martin

    1999-01-01

    In the empirical modelling of demands and labour supply we often lack data on a full set of goods. The usual response is to invoke separability assumptions. Here we present an alternative based on modelling demands as a function of prices and the quantity of a reference good rather than total expenditure. We term such demands m-demands. The advantage of this approach is that we make maximum use of the data to hand without invoking implausible separability assumptions. In the theory section qu...

  20. Multiscale peak detection in wavelet space.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Zhi-Min; Tong, Xia; Peng, Ying; Ma, Pan; Zhang, Ming-Jin; Lu, Hong-Mei; Chen, Xiao-Qing; Liang, Yi-Zeng

    2015-12-07

    Accurate peak detection is essential for analyzing high-throughput datasets generated by analytical instruments. Derivatives with noise reduction and matched filtration are frequently used, but they are sensitive to baseline variations, random noise and deviations in the peak shape. A continuous wavelet transform (CWT)-based method is more practical and popular in this situation, which can increase the accuracy and reliability by identifying peaks across scales in wavelet space and implicitly removing noise as well as the baseline. However, its computational load is relatively high and the estimated features of peaks may not be accurate in the case of peaks that are overlapping, dense or weak. In this study, we present multi-scale peak detection (MSPD) by taking full advantage of additional information in wavelet space including ridges, valleys, and zero-crossings. It can achieve a high accuracy by thresholding each detected peak with the maximum of its ridge. It has been comprehensively evaluated with MALDI-TOF spectra in proteomics, the CAMDA 2006 SELDI dataset as well as the Romanian database of Raman spectra, which is particularly suitable for detecting peaks in high-throughput analytical signals. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves show that MSPD can detect more true peaks while keeping the false discovery rate lower than MassSpecWavelet and MALDIquant methods. Superior results in Raman spectra suggest that MSPD seems to be a more universal method for peak detection. MSPD has been designed and implemented efficiently in Python and Cython. It is available as an open source package at .

  1. Automated asteroseismic peak detections

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    de Montellano, Andres Garcia Saravia Ortiz; Hekker, S.; Themessl, N.

    2018-01-01

    Space observatories such as Kepler have provided data that can potentially revolutionize our understanding of stars. Through detailed asteroseismic analyses we are capable of determining fundamental stellar parameters and reveal the stellar internal structure with unprecedented accuracy. However......, such detailed analyses, known as peak bagging, have so far been obtained for only a small percentage of the observed stars while most of the scientific potential of the available data remains unexplored. One of the major challenges in peak bagging is identifying how many solar-like oscillation modes are visible...... of detected oscillation modes. The algorithm presented here opens the possibility for detailed and automated peak bagging of the thousands of solar-like oscillators observed by Kepler....

  2. The evaluation of team lifting on physical work demands and workload in ironworkers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Molen, Henk F; Visser, Steven; Kuijer, P Paul F M; Faber, Gert; Hoozemans, Marco J M; van Dieën, Jaap H; Frings-Dresen, Monique H W

    2012-01-01

    Lifting and carrying heavy loads occur frequently among ironworkers and result in high prevalence and incidence rates of low back complaints, injuries and work-disability. From a health perspective, little information is available on the effect of team lifting on work demands and workload. Therefore, the objective of this study was to compare the effects of team lifting of maximally 50 kg by two ironworkers (T50) with team lifting of maximally 100 kg by four ironworkers (T100). This study combined a field and laboratory study with the following outcome measures: duration and frequency of tasks and activities, energetic workload, perceived discomfort and maximal compression forces (Fc peak) on the low back. The physical work demands and workload of an individual iron worker during manual handling of rebar materials of 100 kg with four workers did not differ from the manual handling of rebar materials of 50 kg with two workers, with the exception of low back discomfort and Fc peak. The biomechanical workload of the low back exceeded for both T50 and T100 the NIOSH threshold limit of 3400N. Therefore, mechanical transport or other effective design solutions should be considered to reduce the biomechanical workload of the low back and the accompanying health risks among iron workers.

  3. Assessment of conditions of service to maximum demand in decennial horizon; Avaliacao das condicoes de atendimento a demanda maxima em horizonte decenal

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Guimaraes, Flavio Borsato; Nasser, Ivana Costa [Wise Systems, Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil); Andrade, Danielle Bueno de; Machado, Renato Simoes; Morozowski Filho, Marciano [Empresa de Pesquisa Energetica (EPE), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2010-07-01

    Planning the future hydro capacity in Brazil includes considering power reinforcements in the peak hours due to the increasing numbers of run-of-river plants. It means that the Brazilian's reservoir profile has been changing over the years from five years regularization to monthly regularization. This article presents a deterministic methodology to evaluate the capacity reserve of the Brazilian power system. It is based on the 'capacity reserve margin' calculation done by a monthly comparison between peak availability and maximum peak load. This methodology was applied to the Decennial Energy Expansion Plan 2019 (PDE 2019) and its final results are shown here through Peak Balances considering different operation conditions and the whole inflows historical records. Additionally, it is presented a suggestion about the evolution of peak evaluation criteria to be applied to the Brazilian power system on its expansion planning. (author)

  4. Analysis of the need for intermediate and peaking technologies in the year 2000

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barrager, S.M.; Campbell, G.L.

    1980-04-01

    This analysis was conducted to assess the impact of load management on the future need for intermediate- and peak-generating technologies (IPTs) such as combustion turbines, pumped storage, and cycling coal plants. There will be a reduced need for IPTs if load-management activities such as time-of-use pricing, together with customer-owned energy-storage devices, hot-water-heater controls, and interruptible service, can economically remove most of the variation from electric-power demands. Therefore, the analysis assesses the need for IPTs in an uncertain future, which will probably include load management and time-differentiated electricity prices. Section 2 provides a condensed description of the models used in the analysis. (Details and data sets are contained in the appendixes.) Results of sensitivities on growth rates, model parameters, and appliance saturations are discussed in Section 3, which also contains the analysis of the potential impacts of customer energy storage, appliance control, and time-of-use pricing. The future need for intermediate and peaking technologies is analyzed in Section 4.

  5. Demand response modeling considering Interruptible/Curtailable loads and capacity market programs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aalami, H.A.; Moghaddam, M. Parsa; Yousefi, G.R.

    2010-01-01

    Recently, a massive focus has been made on demand response (DR) programs, aimed to electricity price reduction, transmission lines congestion resolving, security enhancement and improvement of market liquidity. Basically, demand response programs are divided into two main categories namely, incentive-based programs and time-based programs. The focus of this paper is on Interruptible/Curtailable service (I/C) and capacity market programs (CAP), which are incentive-based demand response programs including penalties for customers in case of no responding to load reduction. First, by using the concept of price elasticity of demand and customer benefit function, economic model of above mentioned programs is developed. The proposed model helps the independent system operator (ISO) to identify and employ relevant DR program which both improves the characteristics of the load curve and also be welcome by customers. To evaluate the performance of the model, simulation study has been conducted using the load curve of the peak day of the Iranian power system grid in 2007. In the numerical study section, the impact of these programs on load shape and load level, and benefit of customers as well as reduction of energy consumption are shown. In addition, by using strategy success indices the results of simulation studies for different scenarios are analyzed and investigated for determination of the scenarios priority. (author)

  6. A Midwest utility's perspective of DSM [demand-side management]: Balancing the needs of customers, shareholders and the environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Collins, G.F.

    1990-01-01

    PSI Energy, a predominately coal-burning Indiana electric utility, is very concerned about the environment and is using demand-side management (DSM) as part of a strategy to balance the sometimes conflicting interests of the environment, the economy, customers and shareholders. Faced with slow growth within its service territory, an abundance of low-cost, high sulfur coal burning baseload capacity, massive future expenditures for acid rain mitigation and a weakened financial state due to a cancelled nuclear project, PSI Energy has taken a novel approach to preserving value for customers, shareholders, the economy and environment. To accomodate Indiana's goal of least cost utility planning, PSI initiated an all-source bidding program in which it solicited bids for peaking capacity or the equivalent. Four parallel but separate solicitations were pursued: combustion turbine manufacturers for PSI owned and operated capacity, other utilities and non-utility generators for purchased power and third parties for demand-side management. PSI's philosophy with respect to bidding can be expressed as: simplicity, flexibility, creativity, partnerships, expeditious and fairness. There is a minimum bid of 5 MW of summer peak demand reduction, and the minimum contract length is 10 years. The entire 550 MW capacity block available to be filled in the program is open to demand-side resources. The ten major evaluation criteria involved in the program are: price, sponsor qualifications, operational impact, marketing plan, technology, financing plan, verification and measurement, form of security, project management plan, and project cost estimates

  7. Sources and Dynamic Processes Controlling Background and Peak Concentrations of TGM in Nanjing, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Casey B. Hall

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Total gaseous mercury (TGM data from urban Nanjing, at the western edge of the Yangtze River Delta (YRD region in China, over nine months, were analyzed for peak and background mercury concentrations. The background concentration of TGM was found to be 2.2 ng∙m−3. In examining episodic influences of free tropospheric air masses on the surface TGM concentrations in Nanjing, we hypothesize heterogeneity in the global distribution of TGM concentrations in the free troposphere. The nine-month averaged diurnal cycles of TGM indicate a strong co-emission with SO2 and an underestimation of greater than 80% TGM emissions in current inventories. Regular peak concentrations of mercury were investigated and the major causes were YRD emissions, transport from rural areas, and monsoonal transport. Transport of rural emissions is hypothesized to be from illegal artisanal small-scale gold mining that are currently missing in the emission inventories. Enhancement of TGM associated with summer monsoon contributed to a maximum TGM concentration in mid-May–early June, an inverse seasonality in comparison to most other observations in China, North America, and Europe.

  8. Pigeons' demand and preference for specific and generalized conditioned reinforcers in a token economy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Lavinia; Hackenberg, Timothy D

    2015-11-01

    Pigeons' demand and preference for specific and generalized tokens was examined in a token economy. Pigeons could produce and exchange different colored tokens for food, for water, or for food or water. Token production was measured across three phases, which examined: (1) across-session price increases (typical demand curve method); (2) within-session price increases (progressive-ratio, PR, schedule); and (3) concurrent pairwise choices between the token types. Exponential demand curves were fitted to the response data and accounted for over 90% total variance. Demand curve parameter values, Pmax , Omax and α showed that demand was ordered in the following way: food tokens, generalized tokens, water tokens, both in Phase 1 and in Phase 3. This suggests that the preferences were predictable on the basis of elasticity and response output from the demand analysis. Pmax and Omax values failed to consistently predict breakpoints and peak response rates in the PR schedules in Phase 2, however, suggesting limits on a unitary conception of reinforcer efficacy. The patterns of generalized token production and exchange in Phase 3 suggest that the generalized tokens served as substitutes for the specific food and water tokens. Taken together, the present findings demonstrate the utility of behavioral economic concepts in the analysis of generalized reinforcement. © Society for the Experimental Analysis of Behavior.

  9. Top-down workforce demand extrapolation based on an EC energy road-map scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roelofs, F.; Von Estorff, U.

    2014-01-01

    The EHRO-N team of JRC-IET provides the EC with essential data related to supply and demand for nuclear experts based on bottom-up information from the nuclear industry. The current paper deals with an alternative approach to derive figures for the demand side information of the nuclear workforce. Complementary to the bottom-up approach, a top-down modelling approach extrapolation of an EC Energy road-map nuclear energy demand scenario is followed here in addition to the survey information. In this top-down modelling approach, the number of nuclear power plants that are in operation and under construction is derived as a function of time from 2010 up to 2050 assuming that the current reactor park will be replaced by generic third generation reactors of 1400 MWe or 1000 MWe. Depending on the size of new build reactors, the analysis shows the number of new reactors required to fulfil the demand for nuclear energy. Based on workforce models for operation and construction of nuclear power plants, the model allows an extrapolation of these respective work-forces. Using the nuclear skills pyramid, the total workforce employed at a plant is broken down in a nuclear (experts), nuclearized, and nuclear aware workforce. With retirement profiles for nuclear power plants derived from the bottom-up EHRO-N survey, the replacement of the current workforce is taken into account. The peak of the new workforce (partly replacing the retiring workforce and additionally keeping up with the growing total workforce demand) for nuclear experts and nuclearized employees is to be expected at the end of the considered period (2050). However, the peak workforce for nuclear aware employees is to be expected around 2020. When comparing to historical data for the nuclear capacity being installed at the same time in Europe, it is clear that the expected future capacity to be installed at the same time in Europe is significantly lower (factor of 2) than in the early 1980's. However, it should

  10. Drivers of peak sales for pharmaceutical brands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fischer, Marc; Leeflang, Peter S. H.; Verhoef, Peter C.

    2010-01-01

    Peak sales are an important metric in the pharmaceutical industry. Specifically, managers are focused on the height-of-peak-sales and the time required achieving peak sales. We analyze how order of entry and quality affect the level of peak sales and the time-to-peak-sales of pharmaceutical brands.

  11. Seasonal variations of neuromotor development by 14 months of age: Hamamatsu Birth Cohort for mothers and children (HBC Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kenji J Tsuchiya

    Full Text Available The present study aimed at investigating whether neuromotor development, from birth to 14 months of age, shows seasonal, cyclic patterns in association with months of birth. Study participants were 742 infants enrolled in the Hamamatsu Birth Cohort (HBC Study and followed-up from birth to the 14th month of age. Gross motor skills were assessed at the ages of 6, 10, and 14 months, using Mullen Scales of Early Learning. The score at each assessment was regressed onto a trigonometric function of months of birth, with an adjustment for potential confounders. Gross motor scores at the 6th and 10th months showed significant 1-year-cycle variations, peaking among March- and April-born infants, and among February-born infants, respectively. Changes in gross motor scores between the 10th and 14th months also showed a cyclic variation, peaking among July- and August-born infants. Due to this complementary effect, gross motor scores at the 14th month did not show seasonality. Neuromotor development showed cyclic seasonality during the first year of life. The effects brought about by month of birth disappeared around 1 year of age, and warmer months seemed to accelerate the neuromotor development.

  12. Analysis of Peak-to-Peak Current Ripple Amplitude in Seven-Phase PWM Voltage Source Inverters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriele Grandi

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Multiphase systems are nowadays considered for various industrial applications. Numerous pulse width modulation (PWM schemes for multiphase voltage source inverters with sinusoidal outputs have been developed, but no detailed analysis of the impact of these modulation schemes on the output peak-to-peak current ripple amplitude has been reported. Determination of current ripple in multiphase PWM voltage source inverters is important for both design and control purposes. This paper gives the complete analysis of the peak-to-peak current ripple distribution over a fundamental period for multiphase inverters, with particular reference to seven-phase VSIs. In particular, peak-to-peak current ripple amplitude is analytically determined as a function of the modulation index, and a simplified expression to get its maximum value is carried out. Although reference is made to the centered symmetrical PWM, being the most simple and effective solution to maximize the DC bus utilization, leading to a nearly-optimal modulation to minimize the RMS of the current ripple, the analysis can be readily extended to either discontinuous or asymmetrical modulations, both carrier-based and space vector PWM. A similar approach can be usefully applied to any phase number. The analytical developments for all different sub-cases are verified by numerical simulations.

  13. Impact of Demand Side Response on a Commercial Retail Refrigeration System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ibrahim M. Saleh

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available The UK National Grid has placed increased emphasis on the development of Demand Side Response (DSR tariff mechanisms to manage load at peak times. Refrigeration systems, along with HVAC, are estimated to consume 14% of the UK’s electricity and could have a significant role for DSR application. However, characterized by relatively low individual electrical loads and massive asset numbers, multiple low power refrigerators need aggregation for inclusion in these tariffs. In this paper, the impact of the Demand Side Response (DSR control mechanisms on food retailing refrigeration systems is investigated. The experiments are conducted in a test-rig built to resemble a typical small supermarket store. The paper demonstrates how the temperature and pressure profiles of the system, the active power and the drawn current of the compressors are affected following a rapid shut down and subsequent return to normal operation as a response to a DSR event. Moreover, risks and challenges associated with primary and secondary Firm Frequency Response (FFR mechanisms, where the load is rapidly shed at high speed in response to changes in grid frequency, is considered. For instance, measurements are included that show a significant increase in peak inrush currents of approx. 30% when the system returns to normal operation at the end of a DSR event. Consideration of how high inrush currents after a DSR event can produce voltage fluctuations of the supply and we assess risks to the local power supply system.

  14. Aligning PEV Charging Times with Electricity Supply and Demand

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hodge, Cabell [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2017-06-05

    Plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) are a growing source of electricity consumption that could either exacerbate supply shortages or smooth electricity demand curves. Extensive research has explored how vehicle-grid integration (VGI) can be optimized by controlling PEV charging timing or providing vehicle-to-grid (V2G) services, such as storing energy in vehicle batteries and returning it to the grid at peak times. While much of this research has modeled charging, implementation in the real world requires a cost-effective solution that accounts for consumer behavior. To function across different contexts, several types of charging administrators and methods of control are necessary to minimize costs in the VGI context.

  15. How to use your peak flow meter

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... meter - how to use; Asthma - peak flow meter; Reactive airway disease - peak flow meter; Bronchial asthma - peak ... 2014:chap 55. National Asthma Education and Prevention Program website. How to use a peak flow meter. ...

  16. Sensitivity of peak positions to flight-path parameters in a deep-inelastic scattering neutron TOF spectrometer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gray, E.MacA.; Chatzidimitriou-Dreismann, C.A.; Blach, T.P.

    2012-01-01

    The effects of small changes in flight-path parameters (primary and secondary flight paths, detector angles), and of displacement of the sample along the beam axis away from its ideal position, are examined for an inelastic time-of-flight (TOF) neutron spectrometer, emphasising the deep-inelastic regime. The aim was to develop a rational basis for deciding what measured shifts in the positions of spectral peaks could be regarded as reliable in the light of the uncertainties in the calibrated flight-path parameters. Uncertainty in the length of the primary or secondary flight path has the least effect on the positions of the peaks of H, D and He, which are dominated by the accuracy of the calibration of the detector angles. This aspect of the calibration of a TOF spectrometer therefore demands close attention to achieve reliable outcomes where the position of the peaks is of significant scientific interest and is discussed in detail. The corresponding sensitivities of the position of peak of the Compton profile, J(y), to flight-path parameters and sample position are also examined, focusing on the comparability across experiments of results for H, D and He. We show that positioning the sample to within a few mm of the ideal position is required to ensure good comparability between experiments if data from detectors at high forward angles are to be reliably interpreted.

  17. The effect of a 6-month cardiac rehabilitation programme on serum ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    One hundred and forty-two cardiac rehabilitation patients were followed up over a p.eriod of 6 months and the percentage change over time was recorded for various lipid fractions including apoprotein AI (apo AI), apoprotein B (apo B) and lipoprotein a (Lp(a)). Data were analysed to see if improvement in peak oxygen ...

  18. Domestic demand-side management (DSM): Role of heat pumps and thermal energy storage (TES) systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arteconi, A.; Hewitt, N.J.; Polonara, F.

    2013-01-01

    Heat pumps are seen as a promising technology for load management in the built environment, in combination with the smart grid concept. They can be coupled with thermal energy storage (TES) systems to shift electrical loads from high-peak to off-peak hours, thus serving as a powerful tool in demand-side management (DSM). This paper analyzes heat pumps with radiators or underfloor heating distribution systems coupled with TES with a view to showing how a heat pump system behaves and how it influences the building occupants' thermal comfort under a DSM strategy designed to flatten the shape of the electricity load curve by switching off the heat pump during peak hours (16:00–19:00). The reference scenario for the analysis was Northern Ireland (UK). The results showed that the heat pump is a good tool for the purposes of DSM, also thanks to the use of TES systems, in particular with heating distribution systems that have a low thermal inertia, e.g. radiators. It proved possible to achieve a good control of the indoor temperature, even if the heat pump was turned off for 3 h, and to reduce the electricity bill if a “time of use” tariff structure was adopted. -- Highlights: ► Heat pump heating systems with thermal energy storage are considered. ► System behavior is investigated during a DSM strategy for reducing peak energy demand. ► Heat pump heating systems demonstrate to be able to have an active role in DSM programs. ► A TES system must be coupled with the heat pump in presence of low thermal inertia heating distribution systems. ► Central role played by incentives schemes to promote this technology

  19. Meeting India's energy demand to the year 2020: the role of coal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sen, J.L.; Bhattacharya, B.C.

    1997-01-01

    The role of coal in Indian economy is undisputed. Coal occupies a dominating position right from the days of its commercial production and use and has reached its peak these days. Attempt has been made in this article to show that although lignite, oil, natural gas, hydro and nuclear power has prominent places in the energy scenario in India but these are of small significance compared to coal. The paper makes an in depth study of the resources of different fuels and demand there of estimated by different consuming sectors as also projection on production of coal till XIth Plan (2011-12) estimated by Planning Commission. A rough estimate has also been made on availability of coal by 2020. Demand projections made by different agencies shown in the article varies depending on the exercise done by them. (author)

  20. Market integration of responsive customers : application to energy and balancing markets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alvarez, C.; Valencia, I.; Alcazar, M. [Univ. Politecnica de Valencia, Valencia (Spain). Inst. of Energy Engineering; Gabaldon, A.; Escriva, G. [Univ. Politecnica de Cartagena, Cartagena (Spain). Dept. of Electrical Engineering

    2009-07-01

    Demand response management methods are now being adopted by many deregulated electric utilities. This article presented details of a method designed to create offers and bids for large electricity customers. The method was developed to analyze daily and monthly energy consumption rates and participation in energy and ancillary service markets in Spain. A simulation was used to analyze day-ahead, inter-daily, and balancing scenarios. Peak demand in winter and summer months was characterized. Energy consumption was analyzed for different demand packages related to air conditioning, outdoor lighting, indoor lighting, and other domestic loads. Prices for each package were calculated in order to assess demand reduction capabilities. Differences between real consumption levels and energy prices bought at real-time prices were compared. An overview of Spanish electricity market structures was provided. Results of the study showed that electricity customers may benefit from participating in demand response programs. It was concluded that lower prices obtained during periods of low electricity production outweighed the higher costs of peak electricity periods. 13 refs., 3 tabs., 9 figs.

  1. Market integration of responsive customers : application to energy and balancing markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alvarez, C.; Valencia, I.; Alcazar, M.; Gabaldon, A.; Escriva, G.

    2009-01-01

    Demand response management methods are now being adopted by many deregulated electric utilities. This article presented details of a method designed to create offers and bids for large electricity customers. The method was developed to analyze daily and monthly energy consumption rates and participation in energy and ancillary service markets in Spain. A simulation was used to analyze day-ahead, inter-daily, and balancing scenarios. Peak demand in winter and summer months was characterized. Energy consumption was analyzed for different demand packages related to air conditioning, outdoor lighting, indoor lighting, and other domestic loads. Prices for each package were calculated in order to assess demand reduction capabilities. Differences between real consumption levels and energy prices bought at real-time prices were compared. An overview of Spanish electricity market structures was provided. Results of the study showed that electricity customers may benefit from participating in demand response programs. It was concluded that lower prices obtained during periods of low electricity production outweighed the higher costs of peak electricity periods. 13 refs., 3 tabs., 9 figs

  2. Data-Driven Optimization of Incentive-based Demand Response System with Uncertain Responses of Customers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jimyung Kang

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Demand response is nowadays considered as another type of generator, beyond just a simple peak reduction mechanism. A demand response service provider (DRSP can, through its subcontracts with many energy customers, virtually generate electricity with actual load reduction. However, in this type of virtual generator, the amount of load reduction includes inevitable uncertainty, because it consists of a very large number of independent energy customers. While they may reduce energy today, they might not tomorrow. In this circumstance, a DSRP must choose a proper set of these uncertain customers to achieve the exact preferred amount of load curtailment. In this paper, the customer selection problem for a service provider that consists of uncertain responses of customers is defined and solved. The uncertainty of energy reduction is fully considered in the formulation with data-driven probability distribution modeling and stochastic programming technique. The proposed optimization method that utilizes only the observed load data provides a realistic and applicable solution to a demand response system. The performance of the proposed optimization is verified with real demand response event data in Korea, and the results show increased and stabilized performance from the service provider’s perspective.

  3. Field demonstration of automated demand response for both winter and summer events in large buildings in the Pacific Northwest

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Piette, M.A.; Kiliccote, S.; Dudley, J.H. [Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2013-11-15

    There are growing strains on the electric grid as cooling peaks grow and equipment ages. Increased penetration of renewables on the grid is also straining electricity supply systems and the need for flexible demand is growing. This paper summarizes results of a series of field test of automated demand response systems in large buildings in the Pacific Northwest. The objective of the research was twofold. One objective was to evaluate the use demand response automation technologies. A second objective was to evaluate control strategies that could change the electric load shape in both winter and summer conditions. Winter conditions focused on cold winter mornings, a time when the electric grid is often stressed. The summer test evaluated DR strategies in the afternoon. We found that we could automate both winter and summer control strategies with the open automated demand response communication standard. The buildings were able to provide significant demand response in both winter and summer events.

  4. Statistical Short-Range Guidance for Peak Wind Speed Forecasts on Kennedy Space Center/Cape Canaveral Air Force Station: Phase I Results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lambert, Winifred C.; Merceret, Francis J. (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    This report describes the results of the ANU's (Applied Meteorology Unit) Short-Range Statistical Forecasting task for peak winds. The peak wind speeds are an important forecast element for the Space Shuttle and Expendable Launch Vehicle programs. The Keith Weather Squadron and the Spaceflight Meteorology Group indicate that peak winds are challenging to forecast. The Applied Meteorology Unit was tasked to develop tools that aid in short-range forecasts of peak winds at tower sites of operational interest. A 7 year record of wind tower data was used in the analysis. Hourly and directional climatologies by tower and month were developed to determine the seasonal behavior of the average and peak winds. In all climatologies, the average and peak wind speeds were highly variable in time. This indicated that the development of a peak wind forecasting tool would be difficult. Probability density functions (PDF) of peak wind speed were calculated to determine the distribution of peak speed with average speed. These provide forecasters with a means of determining the probability of meeting or exceeding a certain peak wind given an observed or forecast average speed. The climatologies and PDFs provide tools with which to make peak wind forecasts that are critical to safe operations.

  5. Impacts of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake on electricity demand in Japan. State space approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Honjo, Keita; Ashina, Shuichi

    2017-01-01

    Some papers report that consumers' electricity saving behavior (Setsuden) after the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake resulted in the reduction of the domestic electricity demand. However, time variation of the electricity saving effect (ESE) has not yet been sufficiently investigated. In this study, we develop a state space model of monthly electricity demand using long-term data, and estimate time variation of the ESE. We also estimate time variation of CO_2 emissions caused by Setsuden. Our result clearly indicates that Setsuden after the earthquake was not temporary but became established as a habit. Between March 2011 and October 2015, the ESE on power demand ranged from 2.9% to 6.9%, and the ESE on light demand ranged from 2.6% to 9.0%. The ESE on the total electricity demand was 3.2%-7.5%. Setsuden also contributed to the reduction of CO_2 emissions, but it could not offset the emissions increase caused by the shutdown of nuclear power plants. (author)

  6. Base-Load and Peak Electricity from a Combined Nuclear Heat and Fossil Combined-Cycle Plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Conklin, Jim; Forsberg, Charles W.

    2007-01-01

    A combined-cycle power plant is proposed that uses heat from a high-temperature reactor and fossil fuel to meet base-load and peak electrical demands. The high-temperature gas turbine produces shaft power to turn an electric generator. The hot exhaust is then fed to a heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) that provides steam to a steam turbine for added electrical power production. A simplified computational model of the thermal power conversion system was developed in order to parametrically investigate two different steady-state operation conditions: base load nuclear heat only from an Advanced High Temperature Reactor (AHTR), and combined nuclear heat with fossil heat to increase the turbine inlet temperature. These two cases bracket the expected range of power levels, where any intermediate power level can result during electrical load following. The computed results indicate that combined nuclear-fossil systems have the potential to offer both low-cost base-load electricity and lower-cost peak power relative to the existing combination of base-load nuclear plants and separate fossil-fired peak-electricity production units. In addition, electric grid stability, reduced greenhouse gases, and operational flexibility can also result with using the conventional technology presented here for the thermal power conversion system coupled with the AHTR

  7. Analysis of the electricity supply-demand balance for the winter period 2009-2010

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2009-10-01

    Every year, RTE conducts a prospective study of the balance between supply and demand for electricity for the coming winter period, covering the whole of mainland France. This period of the year is looked at closely, primarily due to the high levels of electricity demand seen during cold snaps. The study by RTE is used to identify periods where the supply-demand balance comes under strain; it explores the measures that can be taken by electricity market players and RTE to avoid any interruption in supply during peak demand periods in France. RTE is responsible for managing the balance between supply and demand for electricity in mainland France, in real time. To do this, it anticipates potential risks that may supply may come under strain - well in advance - and informs market players. If periods are identified where the supply-demand balance comes under strain, RTE works with the electricity generators to look at possible ways of altering the schedules for shutting down generating units, and takes account of the possibilities for demand response (load reduction) reported by suppliers. As a last resort, if these preemptive measures prove insufficient and the situation becomes critical, RTE alerts the government of the risk that supply will be interrupted, and takes action in real time to limit the impact on the power system. For temperatures close to seasonal norms, the forecast outlook for the electricity supply-demand balance appears significantly less favourable than last winter until the end of January. Imports could be required between mid-November 2009 and the end of January 2010, to cover electricity demand in France and satisfy the technical security margin stipulated by RTE. To do this, suppliers would have to look to the European markets, in addition to activating demand response (load reduction) possibilities with their customer portfolios. In the event of an intense and sustained spell of cold weather, the technical limit for imports into the French

  8. Security of supply, energy spillage control and peaking options within a 100% renewable electricity system for New Zealand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mason, I.G.; Page, S.C.; Williamson, A.G.

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, issues of security of supply, energy spillage control, and peaking options, within a fully renewable electricity system, are addressed. We show that a generation mix comprising 49% hydro, 23% wind, 13% geothermal, 14% pumped hydro energy storage peaking plant, and 1% biomass-fuelled generation on an installed capacity basis, was capable of ensuring security of supply over an historic 6-year period, which included the driest hydrological year on record in New Zealand since 1931. Hydro spillage was minimised, or eliminated, by curtailing a proportion of geothermal generation. Wind spillage was substantially reduced by utilising surplus generation for peaking purposes, resulting in up to 99.8% utilisation of wind energy. Peaking requirements were satisfied using 1550 MW of pumped hydro energy storage generation, with a capacity factor of 0.76% and an upper reservoir storage equivalent to 8% of existing hydro storage capacity. It is proposed that alternative peaking options, including biomass-fuelled gas turbines and demand-side measures, should be considered. As a transitional policy, the use of fossil-gas–fuelled gas turbines for peaking would result in a 99.8% renewable system on an energy basis. Further research into whether a market-based system is capable of delivering such a renewable electricity system is suggested. - Highlights: • A 100% renewable electricity system was modelled over a 6-year period. • Security of supply was demonstrated, including for the driest year since 1931. • Stored energy spillage was controlled by using flexible base-load generation. • Wind energy utilisation of 99.8% was obtained. • Transitional use of fossil gas for peaking resulted in a 99.8% renewable system

  9. Main Determinants of Supplementary Health Insurance Demand: (Case of Iran)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Motlagh, Soraya Nouraei; Gorji, Hassan Abolghasem; Mahdavi, Ghadir; Ghaderi, Hossein

    2015-01-01

    Introduction: In the majority of developing countries, the volume of medical insurance services, provided by social insurance organizations is inadequate. Thus, supplementary medical insurance is proposed as a means to address inadequacy of medical insurance. Accordingly, in this article, we attempted to provide the context for expansion of this important branch of insurance through identification of essential factors affecting demand for supplementary medical insurance. Method: In this study, two methods were used to identify essential factors affecting choice of supplementary medical insurance including Classification and Regression Trees (CART) and Bayesian logit. To this end, Excel® software was used to refine data and R® software for estimation. The present study was conducted during 2012, covering all provinces in Iran. Sample size included 18,541 urban households, selected by Statistical Center of Iran using 3-stage cluster sampling approach. In this study, all data required were collected from the Statistical Center of Iran. Results: In 2012, an overall 8.04% of the Iranian population benefited from supplementary medical insurance. Demand for supplementary insurance is a concave function of age of the household head, and peaks in middle-age when savings and income are highest. The present study results showed greater likelihood of demand for supplementary medical insurance in households with better economic status, higher educated heads, female heads, and smaller households with greater expected medical expenses, and household income is the most important factor affecting demand for supplementary medical insurance. Conclusion: Since demand for supplementary medical insurance is hugely influenced by households’ economic status, policy-makers in the health sector should devise measures to improve households’ economic or financial access to supplementary insurance services, by identifying households in the lower economic deciles, and increasing their

  10. Automated asteroseismic peak detections

    Science.gov (United States)

    García Saravia Ortiz de Montellano, Andrés; Hekker, S.; Themeßl, N.

    2018-05-01

    Space observatories such as Kepler have provided data that can potentially revolutionize our understanding of stars. Through detailed asteroseismic analyses we are capable of determining fundamental stellar parameters and reveal the stellar internal structure with unprecedented accuracy. However, such detailed analyses, known as peak bagging, have so far been obtained for only a small percentage of the observed stars while most of the scientific potential of the available data remains unexplored. One of the major challenges in peak bagging is identifying how many solar-like oscillation modes are visible in a power density spectrum. Identification of oscillation modes is usually done by visual inspection that is time-consuming and has a degree of subjectivity. Here, we present a peak-detection algorithm especially suited for the detection of solar-like oscillations. It reliably characterizes the solar-like oscillations in a power density spectrum and estimates their parameters without human intervention. Furthermore, we provide a metric to characterize the false positive and false negative rates to provide further information about the reliability of a detected oscillation mode or the significance of a lack of detected oscillation modes. The algorithm presented here opens the possibility for detailed and automated peak bagging of the thousands of solar-like oscillators observed by Kepler.

  11. Hysteresis in Mental Workload and Task Performance: The Influence of Demand Transitions and Task Prioritization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jansen, Reinier J; Sawyer, Ben D; van Egmond, René; de Ridder, Huib; Hancock, Peter A

    2016-12-01

    We examine how transitions in task demand are manifested in mental workload and performance in a dual-task setting. Hysteresis has been defined as the ongoing influence of demand levels prior to a demand transition. Authors of previous studies predominantly examined hysteretic effects in terms of performance. However, little is known about the temporal development of hysteresis in mental workload. A simulated driving task was combined with an auditory memory task. Participants were instructed to prioritize driving or to prioritize both tasks equally. Three experimental conditions with low, high, and low task demands were constructed by manipulating the frequency of lane changing. Multiple measures of subjective mental workload were taken during experimental conditions. Contrary to our prediction, no hysteretic effects were found after the high- to low-demand transition. However, a hysteretic effect in mental workload was found within the high-demand condition, which degraded toward the end of the high condition. Priority instructions were not reflected in performance. Online assessment of both performance and mental workload demonstrates the transient nature of hysteretic effects. An explanation for the observed hysteretic effect in mental workload is offered in terms of effort regulation. An informed arrival at the scene is important in safety operations, but peaks in mental workload should be avoided to prevent buildup of fatigue. Therefore, communication technologies should incorporate the historical profile of task demand. © 2016, Human Factors and Ergonomics Society.

  12. Innovation and Demand

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Esben Sloth

    2007-01-01

    the demand-side of markets in the simplest possible way. This strategy has allowed a gradual increase in the sophistication of supply-side aspects of economic evolution, but the one-sided focus on supply is facing diminishing returns. Therefore, demand-side aspects of economic evolution have in recent years...... received increased attention. The present paper argues that the new emphasis on demand-side factors is quite crucial for a deepened understanding of economic evolution. The major reasons are the following: First, demand represents the core force of selection that gives direction to the evolutionary process....... Second, firms' innovative activities relate, directly or indirectly, to the structure of expected and actual demand. Third, the demand side represents the most obvious way of turning to the much-needed analysis of macro-evolutionary change of the economic system....

  13. Randomized, multicenter study: on-demand versus continuous maintenance treatment with esomeprazole in patients with non-erosive gastroesophageal reflux disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bayerdörffer, Ekkehard; Bigard, Marc-Andre; Weiss, Werner; Mearin, Fermín; Rodrigo, Luis; Dominguez Muñoz, Juan Enrique; Grundling, Hennie; Persson, Tore; Svedberg, Lars-Erik; Keeling, Nanna; Eklund, Stefan

    2016-04-14

    Most patients with gastroesophageal reflux disease experience symptomatic relapse after stopping acid-suppressive medication. The aim of this study was to compare willingness to continue treatment with esomeprazole on-demand versus continuous maintenance therapy for symptom control in patients with non-erosive reflux disease (NERD) after 6 months. This multicenter, open-label, randomized, parallel-group study enrolled adults with NERD who were heartburn-free after 4 weeks' treatment with esomeprazole 20 mg daily. Patients received esomeprazole 20 mg daily continuously or on-demand for 6 months. The primary variable was discontinuation due to unsatisfactory treatment. On-demand treatment was considered non-inferior if the upper limit of the one-sided 95 % confidence interval (CI) for the difference between treatments was reflux esophagitis versus none in the continuous group (P Reflux dimension was also improved for continuous versus on-demand treatment. Esomeprazole was well tolerated. In terms of willingness to continue treatment, on-demand treatment with esomeprazole 20 mg was non-inferior to continuous maintenance treatment and reduced medication usage in patients with NERD who had achieved symptom control with initial esomeprazole treatment. ClinicalTrials.gov identifier (NCT number): NCT02670642 ; Date of registration: December 2015.

  14. Validation of inverse seasonal peak mortality in medieval plagues, including the Black Death, in comparison to modern Yersinia pestis-variant diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Welford, Mark R; Bossak, Brian H

    2009-12-22

    Recent studies have noted myriad qualitative and quantitative inconsistencies between the medieval Black Death (and subsequent "plagues") and modern empirical Y. pestis plague data, most of which is derived from the Indian and Chinese plague outbreaks of A.D. 1900+/-15 years. Previous works have noted apparent differences in seasonal mortality peaks during Black Death outbreaks versus peaks of bubonic and pneumonic plagues attributed to Y. pestis infection, but have not provided spatiotemporal statistical support. Our objective here was to validate individual observations of this seasonal discrepancy in peak mortality between historical epidemics and modern empirical data. We compiled and aggregated multiple daily, weekly and monthly datasets of both Y. pestis plague epidemics and suspected Black Death epidemics to compare seasonal differences in mortality peaks at a monthly resolution. Statistical and time series analyses of the epidemic data indicate that a seasonal inversion in peak mortality does exist between known Y. pestis plague and suspected Black Death epidemics. We provide possible explanations for this seasonal inversion. These results add further evidence of inconsistency between historical plagues, including the Black Death, and our current understanding of Y. pestis-variant disease. We expect that the line of inquiry into the disputed cause of the greatest recorded epidemic will continue to intensify. Given the rapid pace of environmental change in the modern world, it is crucial that we understand past lethal outbreaks as fully as possible in order to prepare for future deadly pandemics.

  15. Simultaneous collection method of on-peak window image and off-peak window image in Tl-201 imaging

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murakami, Tomonori; Noguchi, Yasushi; Kojima, Akihiro; Takagi, Akihiro; Matsumoto, Masanori

    2007-01-01

    Tl-201 imaging detects the photopeak (71 keV, in on-peak window) of characteristic X-rays of Hg-201 formed from Tl-201 decay. The peak is derived from 4 rays of different energy and emission intensity and does not follow in Gaussian distribution. In the present study, authors made an idea for the method in the title to attain the more effective single imaging, which was examined for its accuracy and reliability with phantoms and applied clinically to Tl-201 scintigraphy in a patient. The authors applied the triple energy window method for data acquisition: the energy window setting was made on Hg-201 X-rays photopeak in three of the lower (3%, L), main (72 keV, M) and upper (14%, U) windows with the gamma camera with 2-gated detector (Toshiba E. CAM/ICON). L, M and U images obtained simultaneously were then constructed to images of on-peak (L+M, Mock on-peak) and off-peak (M+U) window settings for evaluation. Phantoms for line source with Tl-201-containing swab and for multi-defect with acrylic plate containing Tl-201 solution were imaged in water. The female patient with thyroid cancer was subjected to preoperative scintigraphy under the defined conditions. Mock on-, off-peak images were found to be equivalent to the true (ordinary, clinical) on-, off-peak ones, and the present method was thought usable for evaluation of usefulness of off-peak window data. (R.T.)

  16. Peak Load Regulation and Cost Optimization for Microgrids by Installing a Heat Storage Tank and a Portable Energy System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hong Zhang

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available With the rapid growth of electricity demands, many traditional distributed networks cannot cover their peak demands, especially in the evening. Additionally, with the interconnection of distributed electrical and thermal grids, system operational flexibility and energy efficiency can be affected as well. Therefore, by adding a portable energy system and a heat storage tank to the traditional distributed system, this paper proposes a newly defined distributed network to deal with the aforementioned problems. Simulation results show that by adding a portable energy system, fossil fuel energy consumption and daily operation cost can be reduced by 8% and 28.29%, respectively. Moreover, system peak load regulating capacity can be significantly improved. However, by introducing the portable energy system to the grid, system uncertainty can be increased to some extent. Therefore, chance constrained programming is proposed to control the system while considering system uncertainty. By applying Particle Swarm Optimization—Monte Carlo to solve the chance constrained programming, results show that power system economy and uncertainty can be compromised by selecting appropriate confidence levels α and β. It is also reported that by installing an extra heat storage tank, combined heat and power energy efficiency can be significantly improved and the installation capacity of the battery can be reduced.

  17. PHYSIOLOGICAL DEMANDS OF YOUNG WOMEN’S COMPETITIVE GYMNASTIC ROUTINES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Marina

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study was to investigate the physiological indices of competitive routines in women’s artistic gymnastics by characterizing post-exercise heart rate (HR, oxygen uptake (VO2 and peak blood lactate concentration (Lmax in a group of eight young elite-oriented female gymnasts. HR was continuously monitored with Polar RS400 monitors during the test event simulating a competition environment. Within 5 s of the end of each routine, the breath-by-breath gas analyser mask was placed on the face to record VO2. VO2max was calculated by the backward extrapolation method of the VO2 recovery curve. Lmax was obtained during recovery (min 1, 3, 5, 7 and 10 subsequent to each event. One week later, HR, VO2 and Lmax were measured during an incremental continuous treadmill test. The treadmill test was confirmed as the assessment with the highest physiological demand. The gymnasts reached their highest values of HR (183-199 beats · min- 1, VO2/Bm (33-44 ml · kg-1 · min-1 and Lmax (7-9 mmol · l-1 in the floor and uneven bars exercises. The vault was the event with the lowest HR (154-166 beats · min-1 and Lmax (2.4-2.6 mmol · l-1, and the balance beam had the lowest VO2 (27-35 ml · kg-1 · min-1. The mean relative peak intensities attained in the different events, which ranged from 65 to 85% of the individual VO2max and HRmax recorded in the laboratory, suggest that cardiorespiratory and metabolic demands are higher than previously indicated. The high percentage of VO2 measured, particularly after the floor event, suggests that aerobic power training should not be neglected in women’s artistic gymnastics.

  18. Holidays in lights: Tracking cultural patterns in demand for energy services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Román, Miguel O.; Stokes, Eleanor C.

    2015-06-01

    Successful climate change mitigation will involve not only technological innovation, but also innovation in how we understand the societal and individual behaviors that shape the demand for energy services. Traditionally, individual energy behaviors have been described as a function of utility optimization and behavioral economics, with price restructuring as the dominant policy lever. Previous research at the macro-level has identified economic activity, power generation and technology, and economic role as significant factors that shape energy use. However, most demand models lack basic contextual information on how dominant social phenomenon, the changing demographics of cities, and the sociocultural setting within which people operate, affect energy decisions and use patterns. Here we use high-quality Suomi-NPP VIIRS nighttime environmental products to: (1) observe aggregate human behavior through variations in energy service demand patterns during the Christmas and New Year's season and the Holy Month of Ramadan and (2) demonstrate that patterns in energy behaviors closely track sociocultural boundaries at the country, city, and district level. These findings indicate that energy decision making and demand is a sociocultural process as well as an economic process, often involving a combination of individual price-based incentives and societal-level factors. While nighttime satellite imagery has been used to map regional energy infrastructure distribution, tracking daily dynamic lighting demand at three major scales of urbanization is novel. This methodology can enrich research on the relative importance of drivers of energy demand and conservation behaviors at fine scales. Our initial results demonstrate the importance of seating energy demand frameworks in a social context.

  19. Holiday in Lights: Tracking Cultural Patterns in Demand for Energy Services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roman, Miguel O.; Stokes, Eleanor C.

    2015-01-01

    Successful climate change mitigation will involve not only technological innovation, but also innovation in how we understand the societal and individual behaviors that shape the demand for energy services. Traditionally, individual energy behaviors have been described as a function of utility optimization and behavioral economics, with price restructuring as the dominant policy lever. Previous research at the macro-level has identified economic activity, power generation and technology, and economic role as significant factors that shape energy use. However, most demand models lack basic contextual information on how dominant social phenomenon, the changing demographics of cities, and the sociocultural setting within which people operate, affect energy decisions and use patterns. Here we use high-quality Suomi-NPP VIIRS nighttime environmental products to: (1) observe aggregate human behavior through variations in energy service demand patterns during the Christmas and New Year's season and the Holy Month of Ramadan and (2) demonstrate that patterns in energy behaviors closely track sociocultural boundaries at the country, city, and district level. These findings indicate that energy decision making and demand is a sociocultural process as well as an economic process, often involving a combination of individual price-based incentives and societal-level factors. While nighttime satellite imagery has been used to map regional energy infrastructure distribution, tracking daily dynamic lighting demand at three major scales of urbanization is novel. This methodology can enrich research on the relative importance of drivers of energy demand and conservation behaviors at fine scales. Our initial results demonstrate the importance of seating energy demand frameworks in a social context.

  20. Demonstrating demand response from water distribution system through pump scheduling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Menke, Ruben; Abraham, Edo; Parpas, Panos; Stoianov, Ivan

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • Water distribution systems can profitably provide demand response energy. • STOR and FFR are financially viable under a wide range of operating conditions. • Viability depends on the pump utilisation and peak price of the electricity tariff. • Total GHG emissions caused by the provision of reserve energy are <300 gCO_2/kW h. • These are lower than those from the major reserve energy provision technologies. - Abstract: Significant changes in the power generation mix are posing new challenges for the balancing systems of the grid. Many of these challenges are in the secondary electricity grid regulation services and could be met through demand response (DR) services. We explore the opportunities for a water distribution system (WDS) to provide balancing services with demand response through pump scheduling and evaluate the associated benefits. Using a benchmark network and demand response mechanisms available in the UK, these benefits are assessed in terms of reduced green house gas (GHG) emissions from the grid due to the displacement of more polluting power sources and additional revenues for water utilities. The optimal pump scheduling problem is formulated as a mixed-integer optimisation problem and solved using a branch and bound algorithm. This new formulation finds the optimal level of power capacity to commit to the provision of demand response for a range of reserve energy provision and frequency response schemes offered in the UK. For the first time we show that DR from WDS can offer financial benefits to WDS operators while providing response energy to the grid with less greenhouse gas emissions than competing reserve energy technologies. Using a Monte Carlo simulation based on data from 2014, we demonstrate that the cost of providing the storage energy is less than the financial compensation available for the equivalent energy supply. The GHG emissions from the demand response provision from a WDS are also shown to be smaller than

  1. Albedo and vegetation demand-side management options for warm climates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hall, Darwin C.

    1997-01-01

    For electric utilities, demand-side management (DSM) can reduce electric load and shift load from peak to off-peak periods. In general, the investor in DSM collects the reward with lower electric bills, excepting a positive externality because of reduced tropospheric and stratospheric air pollution from fossil fuel power plants. In warm climates, DSM options include increasing albedo and vegetation, respectively, by painting surfaces white and planting trees; these DSM options are distinguished from all other DSM options because of ecosystem effects. Ambient temperature falls, mitigating the urban 'heat island', which reduces electric load and ozone formation. The investor in albedo and vegetation DSM options does not collect all of the reward from lower electric bills, since the lower ambient temperature provides savings to all customers who use electricity for air conditioning and refrigeration. Similar to other DSM options, air pollution is also reduced as a result of lower power plant emissions. Complex airshed models and electric utility system dispatch models are applied in this paper to account for some of these ecosystem effects. Unaccounted ecosystem effects remain, stymieing cost effectiveness analysis

  2. Daily Peak Load Forecasting of Next Day using Weather Distribution and Comparison Value of Each Nearby Date Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ito, Shigenobu; Yukita, Kazuto; Goto, Yasuyuki; Ichiyanagi, Katsuhiro; Nakano, Hiroyuki

    By the development of industry, in recent years; dependence to electric energy is growing year by year. Therefore, reliable electric power supply is in need. However, to stock a huge amount of electric energy is very difficult. Also, there is a necessity to keep balance between the demand and supply, which changes hour after hour. Consequently, to supply the high quality and highly dependable electric power supply, economically, and with high efficiency, there is a need to forecast the movement of the electric power demand carefully in advance. And using that forecast as the source, supply and demand management plan should be made. Thus load forecasting is said to be an important job among demand investment of electric power companies. So far, forecasting method using Fuzzy logic, Neural Net Work, Regression model has been suggested for the development of forecasting accuracy. Those forecasting accuracy is in a high level. But to invest electric power in higher accuracy more economically, a new forecasting method with higher accuracy is needed. In this paper, to develop the forecasting accuracy of the former methods, the daily peak load forecasting method using the weather distribution of highest and lowest temperatures, and comparison value of each nearby date data is suggested.

  3. Statistical analysis of the low-temperature dislocation peak of internal friction (Bordoni peak) in nanostructured copper

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vatazhuk, E.N.; Natsik, V.D.

    2011-01-01

    The temperature-frequency dependence of internal friction in the nanostructured samples of Cu and fibred composite C-32 vol.%Nb with the sizes of structure fragments approx 200 nm is analyzed. Experiments are used as initial information for such analysis. The characteristic for the heavily deformed copper Bordoni peak, located nearby a temperature 90 K, was recorded on temperature dependence of vibration decrement (frequencies 73-350 kHz) in previous experiments. The peak is due to the resonance interaction of sound with the system of thermal activated relaxators, and its width considerably greater in comparison with the width of standard internal friction peak with the single relaxation time. Statistical analysis of the peak is made in terms of assumption that the reason of broadening is random activation energy dispersion of relaxators as a result of intense distortion of copper crystal structure. Good agreement of experimental data and Seeger theory considers thermal activated paired kinks at linear segments of dislocation lines, placed in potential Peierls relief valley, as relaxators of Bordoni peak, was established. It is shown that the registered peak height in experiment correspond to presence at the average one dislocation segment in the interior of crystalline grain with size of 200 nm. Empirical estimates for the critical Peierls stress σp ∼ 2x10 7 Pa and integrated density of the interior grain dislocations ρ d ∼ 10 13 m -2 are made. Nb fibers in the composite Cu-Nb facilitate to formation of nanostructured copper, but do not influence evidently on the Bordoni peak.

  4. A novel complex air supply model for indoor air quality control via the occupant micro-environment demand ventilation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang, Jie; Zhou, Bo; Jin, Maozhu; Wang, Jun; Xiong, Feng

    2016-01-01

    Protection of indoor air quality and human health can be achieved via ventilation, which has becomes one of the most important tasks for sustainable buildings. This approach also requires highly efficient and energy saving methods for modern building ventilations consisting of a set of parameters of the complex indoor system. Therefore, the advancement in understanding the characteristics of various ventilation methods is highly necessary. This study presents one novel air supply model for the complex occupant micro-environment demand control ventilations, to analyze the efficiency of various ventilation types. This model is established primarily according to the momentum and mass conservations, and goal of occupant micro-environment demand, which is a complex system with the characteristics of diversity and dynamic variation. As for different occupant densities, characteristics of outdoor air supply for controlling gaseous pollutant and three basic features of outdoor airflow supply reaching occupant micro-environment were obtained. This research shows that for various types of occupant density and storey height, the rising and descending rates of the demand outdoor airflow in mixing ventilation are higher than those under displacement ventilation conditions. In addition, since the structure is better designed and sewage flow is more efficient, the mixing ventilation also requires a much higher peak demand outdoor airflow than its counterpart. The increase of storey height will lead to a decline of pollutants in the breathing zone and the demand outdoor airflow. Fluctuations of air flow diffusion caused by the change of occupant density in architectural space, will lead to variations of outdoor airflow reaching occupant micro-environment. Accordingly, it would lead to the different peak values of demand outdoor airflow, and the difference becomes even significant if the occupant density increases. The variations of the air supply and fraction of air reaching the

  5. Interrole conflict and self-efficacy to manage work and family demands mediate the relationships of job and family demands with stress in the job and family domains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smoktunowicz, Ewelina; Cieslak, Roman; Demerouti, Evangelia

    2017-09-01

    This study derives from Work-Home Resources model (ten Brummelhuis, L. L., & Bakker, A. B. (2012). A resource perspective on the work-home interface: The work-home resources model. American Psychologist, 67(7), 545-556. doi: 10.1037/a0027974 ) and Social Cognitive Theory (Bandura, A. (1986). Social foundations of thought and action: A social cognitive theory. Englewood Cliffs, NJ, US: Prentice-Hall, Inc.) to investigate mechanisms responsible for the effect of job and family demands on work- and family-related perceived stress. We hypothesized that interrole conflict and self-efficacy to manage work and family demands operate either independently or sequentially transmitting the effects of demands on perceived stress. A sample of 100 employees of various occupations participated in the study conducted online in two waves: Time 1 (T1) and Time 2 (T2) with a three-month interval. Regression analysis with bootstrapping was applied. Interrole conflict (T1) did not mediate the relationships between demands (T1) and perceived stress (T2), whereas self-efficacy (T1) mediated only those between family demands (T1) and stress (T2). However, data supported the sequential mediation hypotheses: Demands (T1) were associated with increased interrole conflict (T1) which in turn decreased self-efficacy (T1) and ultimately resulted in the elevated perceived stress at work and in the family (T2). Demands originating in one domain can impact stress both in the same and other life areas through the sequence of interrole conflict and context-specific self-efficacy.

  6. Monitoring biofouling communities could reduce impacts to mussel aquaculture by allowing synchronisation of husbandry techniques with peaks in settlement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sievers, Michael; Dempster, Tim; Fitridge, Isla; Keough, Michael J

    2014-02-01

    Fouling organisms in bivalve aquaculture cause significant economic losses for the industry. Managing biofouling is typically reactive, and involves time- and labour-intensive removal techniques. Mussel spat settlement and biofouling were documented over 20 months at three mussel farms within Port Phillip Bay (PPB), Australia to determine if knowledge of settlement patterns could assist farmers in avoiding biofouling. Mussel spat settlement was largely confined to a 2-month period at one farm. Of the problematic foulers, Ectopleura crocea settlement varied in space and time at all three farms, whilst Ciona intestinalis and Pomatoceros taeniata were present predominantly at one farm and exhibited more distinct settlement periods. Within PPB, complete avoidance of biofouling is impossible. However, diligent monitoring may help farmers avoid peaks in detrimental biofouling species and allow them to implement removal strategies such as manual cleaning, and postpone grading and re-socking practices, until after these peaks.

  7. The peak in neutron powder diffraction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Laar, B. van; Yelon, W.B.

    1984-01-01

    For the application of Rietveld profile analysis to neutron powder diffraction data a precise knowledge of the peak profile, in both shape and position, is required. The method now in use employs a Gaussian shaped profile with a semi-empirical asymmetry correction for low-angle peaks. The integrated intensity is taken to be proportional to the classical Lorentz factor calculated for the X-ray case. In this paper an exact expression is given for the peak profile based upon the geometrical dimensions of the diffractometer. It is shown that the asymmetry of observed peaks is well reproduced by this expression. The angular displacement of the experimental profile with respect to the nominal Bragg angle value is larger than expected. Values for the correction to the classical Lorentz factor for the integrated intensity are given. The exact peak profile expression has been incorporated into a Rietveld profile analysis refinement program. (Auth.)

  8. Associations of maternal macronutrient intake during pregnancy with infant BMI peak characteristics and childhood BMI.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Ling-Wei; Aris, Izzuddin M; Bernard, Jonathan Y; Tint, Mya-Thway; Colega, Marjorelee; Gluckman, Peter D; Tan, Kok Hian; Shek, Lynette Pei-Chi; Chong, Yap-Seng; Yap, Fabian; Godfrey, Keith M; van Dam, Rob M; Chong, Mary Foong-Fong; Lee, Yung Seng

    2017-03-01

    Background: Infant body mass index (BMI) peak characteristics and early childhood BMI are emerging markers of future obesity and cardiometabolic disease risk, but little is known about their maternal nutritional determinants. Objective: We investigated the associations of maternal macronutrient intake with infant BMI peak characteristics and childhood BMI in the Growing Up in Singapore Towards healthy Outcomes study. Design: With the use of infant BMI data from birth to age 18 mo, infant BMI peak characteristics [age (in months) and magnitude (BMI peak ; in kg/m 2 ) at peak and prepeak velocities] were derived from subject-specific BMI curves that were fitted with the use of mixed-effects model with a natural cubic spline function. Associations of maternal macronutrient intake (assessed by using a 24-h recall during late gestation) with infant BMI peak characteristics ( n = 910) and BMI z scores at ages 2, 3, and 4 y were examined with the use of multivariable linear regression. Results: Mean absolute maternal macronutrient intakes (percentages of energy) were 72 g protein (15.6%), 69 g fat (32.6%), and 238 g carbohydrate (51.8%). A 25-g (∼100-kcal) increase in maternal carbohydrate intake was associated with a 0.01/mo (95% CI: 0.0003, 0.01/mo) higher prepeak velocity and a 0.04 (95% CI: 0.01, 0.08) higher BMI peak These associations were mainly driven by sugar intake, whereby a 25-g increment of maternal sugar intake was associated with a 0.02/mo (95% CI: 0.01, 0.03/mo) higher infant prepeak velocity and a 0.07 (95% CI: 0.01, 0.13) higher BMI peak Higher maternal carbohydrate and sugar intakes were associated with a higher offspring BMI z score at ages 2-4 y. Maternal protein and fat intakes were not consistently associated with the studied outcomes. Conclusion: Higher maternal carbohydrate and sugar intakes are associated with unfavorable infancy BMI peak characteristics and higher early childhood BMI. This trial was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT

  9. Asian oil demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fesharaki, F.

    2005-01-01

    This conference presentation examined global oil market development and the role of Asian demand. It discussed plateau change versus cyclical movement in the global oil market; supply and demand issues of OPEC and non-OPEC oil; if high oil prices reduce demand; and the Asian oil picture in the global context. Asian oil demand has accounted for about 50 per cent of the global incremental oil market growth. The presentation provided data charts in graphical format on global and Asia-Pacific incremental oil demand from 1990-2005; Asia oil demand growth for selected nations; real GDP growth in selected Asian countries; and, Asia-Pacific oil production and net import requirements. It also included charts in petroleum product demand for Asia-Pacific, China, India, Japan, and South Korea. Other data charts included key indicators for China's petroleum sector; China crude production and net oil import requirements; China's imports and the share of the Middle East; China's oil exports and imports; China's crude imports by source for 2004; China's imports of main oil products for 2004; India's refining capacity; India's product balance for net-imports and net-exports; and India's trade pattern of oil products. tabs., figs

  10. Demand Response Potential for California SubLAPs and Local Capacity Planning Areas: An Addendum to the 2025 California Demand Response Potential Study – Phase 2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alstone, Peter [Humboldt State Univ., Arcata, CA (United States). Schatz Energy Research Center; Potter, Jennifer [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Piette, Mary Ann [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Schwartz, Peter [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Berger, Michael A. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Dunn, Laurel N. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Smith, Sarah J. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Sohn, Michael D. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Aghajanzadeh, Arian [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Stensson, Sofia [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Szinai, Julia [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2017-04-01

    The 2025 California Demand Response Potential Study Phase 2 Report1 was released on March 1, 2017, and described a range of pathways for Demand Response (DR) to support a clean, stable, and cost-effective electric grid for California. One of the Report’s key findings was that while there appears to be very low future value for untargeted DR Shed aimed at system-wide peak load conditions, there could be significant value for locally focused Shed resources. Although the dynamics of renewable capacity expansion have reduced the pressure to build new thermal generation in general, there are still transmission-constrained areas of the state where load growth needs to be managed with the addition of new local capacity, which could include DERs and/or DR. This Addendum to the Phase 2 Report presents a breakdown of the expected future “Local Shed” DR potential at a finer geographic resolution than what is available in the original report, with results summarized by SubLAP and Local Capacity Area (LCA).

  11. Biochemical markers of cartilage metabolism are associated with walking biomechanics 6-months following anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pietrosimone, Brian; Loeser, Richard F; Blackburn, J Troy; Padua, Darin A; Harkey, Matthew S; Stanley, Laura E; Luc-Harkey, Brittney A; Ulici, Veronica; Marshall, Stephen W; Jordan, Joanne M; Spang, Jeffery T

    2017-10-01

    The purpose of our study was to determine the association between biomechanical outcomes of walking gait (peak vertical ground reaction force [vGRF], vGRF loading rate [vGRF-LR], and knee adduction moment [KAM]) 6 months following anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction (ACLR) and biochemical markers of serum type-II collagen turnover (collagen type-II cleavage product to collagen type-II C-propeptide [C2C:CPII]), plasma degenerative enzymes (matrix metalloproteinase-3 [MMP-3]), and a pro-inflammatory cytokine (interleukin-6 [IL-6]). Biochemical markers were evaluated within the first 2 weeks (6.5 ± 3.8 days) following ACL injury and again 6 months following ACLR in eighteen participants. All peak biomechanical outcomes were extracted from the first 50% of the stance phase of walking gait during a 6-month follow-up exam. Limb symmetry indices (LSI) were used to normalize the biomechanical outcomes in the ACLR limb to that of the contralateral limb (ACLR/contralateral). Bivariate correlations were used to assess associations between biomechanical and biochemical outcomes. Greater plasma MMP-3 concentrations after ACL injury and at the 6-month follow-up exam were associated with lesser KAM LSI. Lesser KAM was associated with greater plasma IL-6 at the 6-month follow-up exam. Similarly, lesser vGRF-LR LSI was associated with greater plasma MMP-3 concentrations at the 6-month follow-up exam. Lesser peak vGRF LSI was associated with higher C2C:CPII after ACL injury, yet this association was not significant after accounting for walking speed. Therefore, lesser biomechanical loading in the ACLR limb, compared to the contralateral limb, 6 months following ACLR may be related to deleterious joint tissue metabolism that could influence future cartilage breakdown. © 2017 Orthopaedic Research Society. Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Orthop Res 35:2288-2297, 2017. © 2017 Orthopaedic Research Society. Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  12. Method and apparatus for current-output peak detection

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Geronimo, Gianluigi

    2017-01-24

    A method and apparatus for a current-output peak detector. A current-output peak detector circuit is disclosed and works in two phases. The peak detector circuit includes switches to switch the peak detector circuit from the first phase to the second phase upon detection of the peak voltage of an input voltage signal. The peak detector generates a current output with a high degree of accuracy in the second phase.

  13. Sensor-based demand controlled ventilation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    De Almeida, A.T. [Universidade de Coimbra (Portugal). Dep. Eng. Electrotecnica; Fisk, W.J. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab., CA (United States)

    1997-07-01

    In most buildings, occupancy and indoor pollutant emission rates vary with time. With sensor-based demand-controlled ventilation (SBDCV), the rate of ventilation (i.e., rate of outside air supply) also varies with time to compensate for the changes in pollutant generation. In other words, SBDCV involves the application of sensing, feedback and control to modulate ventilation. Compared to ventilation without feedback, SBDCV offers two potential advantages: (1) better control of indoor pollutant concentrations; and (2) lower energy use and peak energy demand. SBDCV has the potential to improve indoor air quality by increasing the rate of ventilation when indoor pollutant generation rates are high and occupants are present. SBDCV can also save energy by decreasing the rate of ventilation when indoor pollutant generation rates are low or occupants are absent. After providing background information on indoor air quality and ventilation, this report provides a relatively comprehensive discussion of SBDCV. Topics covered in the report include basic principles of SBDCV, sensor technologies, technologies for controlling air flow rates, case studies of SBDCV, application of SBDCV to laboratory buildings, and research needs. SBDCV appears to be an increasingly attractive technology option. Based on the review of literature and theoretical considerations, the application of SBDCV has the potential to be cost-effective in applications with the following characteristics: (a) a single or small number of dominant pollutants, so that ventilation sufficient to control the concentration of the dominant pollutants provides effective control of all other pollutants; (b) large buildings or rooms with unpredictable temporally variable occupancy or pollutant emission; and (c) climates with high heating or cooling loads or locations with expensive energy.

  14. Evaluation of the Effects of Nationwide Conservation Voltage Reduction on Peak-Load Shaving Using SOMAS Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Soon-Ryul Nam

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we propose a new method to evaluate the effects of nationwide conservation voltage reduction (CVR on peak-load shaving, using substation operating results management system (SOMAS data. Its evaluation is based on a national CVR factor, which is defined as the weighted average of CVR factors associated with all transformer banks and weighting coefficients are determined by the reconstructed loads corresponding to each transformer bank. To make use of the data resulting from nationwide CVR without installing additional measuring devices, we adopt a linearized static-load model with a linearizing parameter. SOMAS data are used to evaluate the effects of nationwide CVR on peak-load shaving in the Korean power system. Evaluation results show that the national CVR factor of the Korean power system has small values in the summer season and large values in the winter season. This means that the effect of nationwide CVR on peak-load shaving in the Korean power system presents stronger benefits during winter months.

  15. Gamma-Ray Peak Integration: Accuracy and Precision

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Richard M. Lindstrom

    2000-01-01

    The accuracy of singlet gamma-ray peak areas obtained by a peak analysis program is immaterial. If the same algorithm is used for sample measurement as for calibration and if the peak shapes are similar, then biases in the integration method cancel. Reproducibility is the only important issue. Even the uncertainty of the areas computed by the program is trivial because the true standard uncertainty can be experimentally assessed by repeated measurements of the same source. Reproducible peak integration was important in a recent standard reference material certification task. The primary tool used for spectrum analysis was SUM, a National Institute of Standards and Technology interactive program to sum peaks and subtract a linear background, using the same channels to integrate all 20 spectra. For comparison, this work examines other peak integration programs. Unlike some published comparisons of peak performance in which synthetic spectra were used, this experiment used spectra collected for a real (though exacting) analytical project, analyzed by conventional software used in routine ways. Because both components of the 559- to 564-keV doublet are from 76 As, they were integrated together with SUM. The other programs, however, deconvoluted the peaks. A sensitive test of the fitting algorithm is the ratio of reported peak areas. In almost all the cases, this ratio was much more variable than expected from the reported uncertainties reported by the program. Other comparisons to be reported indicate that peak integration is still an imperfect tool in the analysis of gamma-ray spectra

  16. Examining demand response, renewable energy and efficiencies to meet growing electricity needs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Elliot, N.; Eldridge, M.; Shipley, A.M.; Laitner, J.S.; Nadel, S.; Silverstein, A.; Hedman, B.; Sloan, M.

    2007-01-01

    While Texas has already taken steps to improve its renewable energy portfolio (RPS), and its energy efficiency improvement program (EEIP), the level of savings that utilities can achieve through the EEIP can be greatly increased. This report estimated the size of energy efficiency and renewable energy resources in Texas, and suggested a range of policy options that might be adopted to further extend EEIP. Current forecasts suggest that peak demand in Texas will increase by 2.3 per cent annually from 2007-2012, a level of growth which is threatening the state's ability to maintain grid reliability at reasonable cost. Almost 70 per cent of installed generating capacity is fuelled by natural gas in Texas. Recent polling has suggested that over 70 per cent of Texans are willing support increased spending on energy efficiency. Demand response measures that may be implemented in the state include incentive-based programs that pay users to reduce their electricity consumption during specific times and pricing programs, where customers are given a price signal and are expected to moderate their electricity usage. By 2023, the widespread availability of time-varying retail electric rates and complementary communications and control methods will permanently change the nature of electricity demand in the state. At present, the integrated utilities in Texas offer a variety of direct load control and time-of-use, curtailable, and interruptible rates. However, with the advent of retail competition now available as a result of the structural unbundling of investor-owned utilities, there is less demand response available in Texas. It was concluded that energy efficiency, demand response, and renewable energy resources can meet the increasing demand for electricity in Texas over the next 15 years. 4 figs

  17. Historical effects of CO2 and climate trends on global crop water demand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urban, Daniel W.; Sheffield, Justin; Lobell, David B.

    2017-12-01

    A critical question for agricultural production and food security is how water demand for staple crops will respond to climate and carbon dioxide (CO2) changes1, especially in light of the expected increases in extreme heat exposure2. To quantify the trade-offs between the effects of climate and CO2 on water demand, we use a `sink-strength' model of demand3,4 which relies on the vapour-pressure deficit (VPD), incident radiation and the efficiencies of canopy-radiation use and canopy transpiration; the latter two are both dependent on CO2. This model is applied to a global data set of gridded monthly weather data over the cropping regions of maize, soybean, wheat and rice during the years 1948-2013. We find that this approach agrees well with Penman-Monteith potential evapotranspiration (PM) for the C3 crops of soybean, wheat and rice, where the competing CO2 effects largely cancel each other out, but that water demand in maize is significantly overstated by a demand measure that does not include CO2, such as the PM. We find the largest changes in wheat, for which water demand has increased since 1981 over 86% of the global cropping area and by 2.3-3.6 percentage points per decade in different regions.

  18. Persistent high job demands and reactivity to mental stress predict future ambulatory blood pressure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steptoe, A; Cropley, M

    2000-05-01

    To test the hypothesis that work stress (persistent high job demands over 1 year) in combination with high reactivity to mental stress predict ambulatory blood pressure. Assessment of cardiovascular responses to standardized behavioural tasks, job demands, and ambulatory blood pressure over a working day and evening after 12 months. We studied 81 school teachers (26 men, 55 women), 36 of whom experienced persistent high job demands over 1 year, while 45 reported lower job demands. Participants were divided on the basis of high and low job demands, and high and low systolic pressure reactions to an uncontrollable stress task. Blood pressure and concurrent physical activity were monitored using ambulatory apparatus from 0900 to 2230 h on a working day. Cardiovascular stress reactivity was associated with waist/hip ratio. Systolic and diastolic pressure during the working day were greater in high job demand participants who were stress reactive than in other groups, after adjustment for age, baseline blood pressure, body mass index and negative affectivity. The difference was not accounted for by variations in physical activity. Cardiovascular stress reactivity and sustained psychosocial stress may act in concert to increase cardiovascular risk in susceptible individuals.

  19. Time series modelling to forecast prehospital EMS demand for diabetic emergencies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villani, Melanie; Earnest, Arul; Nanayakkara, Natalie; Smith, Karen; de Courten, Barbora; Zoungas, Sophia

    2017-05-05

    Acute diabetic emergencies are often managed by prehospital Emergency Medical Services (EMS). The projected growth in prevalence of diabetes is likely to result in rising demand for prehospital EMS that are already under pressure. The aims of this study were to model the temporal trends and provide forecasts of prehospital attendances for diabetic emergencies. A time series analysis on monthly cases of hypoglycemia and hyperglycemia was conducted using data from the Ambulance Victoria (AV) electronic database between 2009 and 2015. Using the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) modelling process, different models were evaluated. The most parsimonious model with the highest accuracy was selected. Forty-one thousand four hundred fifty-four prehospital diabetic emergencies were attended over a seven-year period with an increase in the annual median monthly caseload between 2009 (484.5) and 2015 (549.5). Hypoglycemia (70%) and people with type 1 diabetes (48%) accounted for most attendances. The SARIMA (0,1,0,12) model provided the best fit, with a MAPE of 4.2% and predicts a monthly caseload of approximately 740 by the end of 2017. Prehospital EMS demand for diabetic emergencies is increasing. SARIMA time series models are a valuable tool to allow forecasting of future caseload with high accuracy and predict increasing cases of prehospital diabetic emergencies into the future. The model generated by this study may be used by service providers to allow appropriate planning and resource allocation of EMS for diabetic emergencies.

  20. Relationships between electroencephalographic spectral peaks across frequency bands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sacha Jennifer Van Albada

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available The degree to which electroenencephalographic (EEG spectral peaks are independent, and the relationships between their frequencies have been debated. A novel fitting method was used to determine peak parameters in the range 2–35 Hz from a large sample of eyes-closed spectra, and their interrelationships were investigated. Findings were compared with a mean-field model of thalamocortical activity, which predicts near-harmonic relationships between peaks. The subject set consisted of 1424 healthy subjects from the Brain Resource International Database. Peaks in the theta range occurred on average near half the alpha peak frequency, while peaks in the beta range tended to occur near twice and three times the alpha peak frequency on an individual-subject basis. Moreover, for the majority of subjects, alpha peak frequencies were significantly positively correlated with frequencies of peaks in the theta and low and high beta ranges. Such a harmonic progression agrees semiquantitatively with theoretical predictions from the mean-field model. These findings indicate a common or analogous source for different rhythms, and help to define appropriate individual frequency bands for peak identification.

  1. Relationships between Electroencephalographic Spectral Peaks Across Frequency Bands

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Albada, S. J.; Robinson, P. A.

    2013-01-01

    The degree to which electroencephalographic spectral peaks are independent, and the relationships between their frequencies have been debated. A novel fitting method was used to determine peak parameters in the range 2–35 Hz from a large sample of eyes-closed spectra, and their interrelationships were investigated. Findings were compared with a mean-field model of thalamocortical activity, which predicts near-harmonic relationships between peaks. The subject set consisted of 1424 healthy subjects from the Brain Resource International Database. Peaks in the theta range occurred on average near half the alpha peak frequency, while peaks in the beta range tended to occur near twice and three times the alpha peak frequency on an individual-subject basis. Moreover, for the majority of subjects, alpha peak frequencies were significantly positively correlated with frequencies of peaks in the theta and low and high beta ranges. Such a harmonic progression agrees semiquantitatively with theoretical predictions from the mean-field model. These findings indicate a common or analogous source for different rhythms, and help to define appropriate individual frequency bands for peak identification. PMID:23483663

  2. Hubbert's Peak -- A Physicist's View

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDonald, Richard

    2011-04-01

    Oil, as used in agriculture and transportation, is the lifeblood of modern society. It is finite in quantity and will someday be exhausted. In 1956, Hubbert proposed a theory of resource production and applied it successfully to predict peak U.S. oil production in 1970. Bartlett extended this work in publications and lectures on the finite nature of oil and its production peak and depletion. Both Hubbert and Bartlett place peak world oil production at a similar time, essentially now. Central to these analyses are estimates of total ``oil in place'' obtained from engineering studies of oil reservoirs as this quantity determines the area under the Hubbert's Peak. Knowing the production history and the total oil in place allows us to make estimates of reserves, and therefore future oil availability. We will then examine reserves data for various countries, in particular OPEC countries, and see if these data tell us anything about the future availability of oil. Finally, we will comment on synthetic oil and the possibility of carbon-neutral synthetic oil for a sustainable future.

  3. The geomorphic structure of the runoff peak

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Rigon

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper develops a theoretical framework to investigate the core dependence of peak flows on the geomorphic properties of river basins. Based on the theory of transport by travel times, and simple hydrodynamic characterization of floods, this new framework invokes the linearity and invariance of the hydrologic response to provide analytical and semi-analytical expressions for peak flow, time to peak, and area contributing to the peak runoff. These results are obtained for the case of constant-intensity hyetograph using the Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF curves to estimate extreme flow values as a function of the rainfall return period. Results show that, with constant-intensity hyetographs, the time-to-peak is greater than rainfall duration and usually shorter than the basin concentration time. Moreover, the critical storm duration is shown to be independent of rainfall return period as well as the area contributing to the flow peak. The same results are found when the effects of hydrodynamic dispersion are accounted for. Further, it is shown that, when the effects of hydrodynamic dispersion are negligible, the basin area contributing to the peak discharge does not depend on the channel velocity, but is a geomorphic propriety of the basin. As an example this framework is applied to three watersheds. In particular, the runoff peak, the critical rainfall durations and the time to peak are calculated for all links within a network to assess how they increase with basin area.

  4. Validation of inverse seasonal peak mortality in medieval plagues, including the Black Death, in comparison to modern Yersinia pestis-variant diseases.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark R Welford

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Recent studies have noted myriad qualitative and quantitative inconsistencies between the medieval Black Death (and subsequent "plagues" and modern empirical Y. pestis plague data, most of which is derived from the Indian and Chinese plague outbreaks of A.D. 1900+/-15 years. Previous works have noted apparent differences in seasonal mortality peaks during Black Death outbreaks versus peaks of bubonic and pneumonic plagues attributed to Y. pestis infection, but have not provided spatiotemporal statistical support. Our objective here was to validate individual observations of this seasonal discrepancy in peak mortality between historical epidemics and modern empirical data. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We compiled and aggregated multiple daily, weekly and monthly datasets of both Y. pestis plague epidemics and suspected Black Death epidemics to compare seasonal differences in mortality peaks at a monthly resolution. Statistical and time series analyses of the epidemic data indicate that a seasonal inversion in peak mortality does exist between known Y. pestis plague and suspected Black Death epidemics. We provide possible explanations for this seasonal inversion. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: These results add further evidence of inconsistency between historical plagues, including the Black Death, and our current understanding of Y. pestis-variant disease. We expect that the line of inquiry into the disputed cause of the greatest recorded epidemic will continue to intensify. Given the rapid pace of environmental change in the modern world, it is crucial that we understand past lethal outbreaks as fully as possible in order to prepare for future deadly pandemics.

  5. Daily disaggregation of simulated monthly flows using different rainfall datasets in southern Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D.A. Hughes

    2015-09-01

    New hydrological insights for the region: There are substantial regional differences in the success of the monthly hydrological model, which inevitably affects the success of the daily disaggregation results. There are also regional differences in the success of using global rainfall data sets (Climatic Research Unit (CRU datasets for monthly, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration African Rainfall Climatology, version 2 (ARC2 satellite data for daily. The overall conclusion is that the disaggregation method presents a parsimonious approach to generating daily flow simulations from existing monthly simulations and that these daily flows are likely to be useful for some purposes (e.g. water quality modelling, but less so for others (e.g. peak flow analysis.

  6. Inclusion of climatic and touristic factors in the analysis and modelling of the municipal water demand in a Mediterranean region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toth, Elena; Bragalli, Cristiana; Neri, Mattia

    2017-04-01

    In Mediterranean regions, inherently affected by water scarcity conditions, the gap between water availability and demand may further increase in the near future due to both climatic and anthropogenic drivers. In particular, the high degree of urbanization and the concentration of population and activities in coastal areas is often severely impacting the water availability also for the residential sector. It is therefore crucial analysing the importance of both climatic and touristic factors as drivers for the water demand in such areas, to better understand and model the expected consumption in order to improve the water management policies and practices. The study presents an analysis referred to a large number of municipalities, covering almost the whole Romagna region, in Northern Italy, representing one of the most economically developed areas in Europe and characterized by an extremely profitable tourist industry, especially in the coastal cities. For this region it is therefore extremely important to assess the significance of the drivers that may influence the demand in the different periods of the year, that is climatic factors (rainfall depths and occurrence, temperature averages and extremes), but also the presence of tourists, in both official tourist accommodation structures and in holidays homes (and the latter are very difficult to estimate). Analyses on the Italian water industry at seasonal or monthly time scale has been so far, extremely limited in the literature by the scarce availability of data on the water demands, that are made public only as annual volumes. All the study municipalities are supplied by the same water company, who provided monthly consumption volumes data at the main inlet points of the entire distribution network for a period of 7 years (2009-2015). For the same period, precipitation and temperature data have been collected and summarised in indexes representing monthly averages, days of occurrence and over threshold values

  7. An Enhanced System Architecture for Optimized Demand Side Management in Smart Grid

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anzar Mahmood

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Demand Side Management (DSM through optimization of home energy consumption in the smart grid environment is now one of the well-known research areas. Appliance scheduling has been done through many different algorithms to reduce peak load and, consequently, the Peak to Average Ratio (PAR. This paper presents a Comprehensive Home Energy Management Architecture (CHEMA with integration of multiple appliance scheduling options and enhanced load categorization in a smart grid environment. The CHEMA model consists of six layers and has been modeled in Simulink with an embedded MATLAB code. A single Knapsack optimization technique is used for scheduling and four different cases of cost reduction are modeled at the second layer of CHEMA. Fault identification and electricity theft control have also been added in CHEMA. Furthermore, carbon footprint calculations have been incorporated in order to make the users aware of environmental concerns. Simulation results prove the effectiveness of the proposed model.

  8. Impact on energy requirements and emissions of heat pumps and micro-cogenerators participating in demand side management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cooper, Samuel J.G.; Hammond, Geoffrey P.; McManus, Marcelle C.; Rogers, John G.

    2014-01-01

    The potential impacts of participating in demand side management (DSM) on the performance of air source heat pumps (ASHP) and micro-combined heat and power (mCHP) units are considered by this study. As significant consumers and generators of electricity at the distribution level, large numbers of heat pumps and micro-cogenerators would provide considerable scope for participation in DSM systems. However, it is possible that operating regimes which are optimised for grid considerations will not achieve the maximum performance that is possible from the units. Modelling has been conducted to investigate the significance of this effect, considering the case where local distribution constraints are the main driver for demand side interventions. A model of domestic electrical demand has been adapted to consider a neighbourhood of 128 dwellings in order to identify when interventions are necessary. This has been combined with dynamic models of two combustion engine micro-cogenerators, a solid oxide fuel cell micro-cogenerator and two ASHPs. A simple thermal model of each building is combined with a range of user preferences in order to determine the preferred operating profiles of the heating units. The DSM scheme analysed here is likely to have minimal impact on the emissions and energy requirements associated with each heating unit. Its effect is similar to that which occurs without DSM if the control system gain is relaxed such that equivalent thermal comfort is achieved. DSM can reduce the peak electrical demand of the neighbourhood. However, in the scenarios investigated, it is unlikely that the peaks can be reduced sufficiently such that they do not exceed the capacity of the local distribution transformer if ASHPs are used in all dwellings. By using a combination of mCHP units with ASHPs, it is possible to supply heating to all dwellings without exceeding this capacity. In this case, the use of DSM can increase the ratio of ASHPs used. In the context of a low

  9. PERFECT DEMAND ILLUSION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexander Yu. Sulimov

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The article is devoted to technique «Perfect demand illusion», which allows to strengthen the competitive advantageof retailers. Also in the paper spells out the golden rules of visual merchandising.The definition of the method «Demand illusion», formulated the conditions of its functioning, and is determined by the mainhypothesis of the existence of this method.Furthermore, given the definition of the «Perfect demand illusion», and describes its additional conditions. Also spells out the advantages of the «Perfect demandillusion», before the «Demand illusion».

  10. Renewable generation versus demand-side management. A comparison for the Spanish market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roldán Fernández, Juan Manuel; Burgos Payán, Manuel; Riquelme Santos, Jesús Manuel; Trigo García, Ángel Luis

    2016-01-01

    Conventionally the required instantaneous balance generation-load is achieved by adjusting production to fit variable consumer demand. Nowadays, a significant and increasing segment of generation is renewable. But renewable production cannot be scheduled on request since its generation is dependent on nature (wind, sun, …). In this context, demand-side management (DSM) would help since it would be advisable for part of the flexibility to be provided by the demand. The integration of renewable production and demand-side management (DSM), are compared in this work for Spain throughout 2008–2014. First a qualitative model, based on the linearization of the wholesale market, is employed to explore some hypotheses. A set of scenarios are then examined to quantify the main effects on the market. The results show that DSM exhibits the best performance in terms of economic efficiency and environmental sustainability, as well as for the reduction of load peaks and losses in the system, what suggests the convenience of promoting plans for the replacement of equipment with other more efficient as well as the implementation of real-time tariffs. - Highlights: •The impact of the integration of renewable production versus DSM has been compared. •Merit-order effect related to energy efficiency and to load-shifting is identified. •Large industries achieve energy efficiency with less CAPEX than renewable generation. •Load-shifting cycle yields a reduction of the traded energy and the economic volume.

  11. Smart grids and power systems efficiency: regulatory tools and demand-side management impacts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bergaentzle, Claire

    2015-01-01

    The physical architecture of electricity grids and the organizational structure of power systems implemented after the reforms have traditionally be achieved according to the characteristics of the transmission infrastructures and power mixes. However, the new challenges related to energy transition favor a greater participation of decentralized generation and final consumers to system exploitation and competitive markets. This latter participation is made possible thanks to recent innovations in the fields of communication and remote control technologies. Significant evolutions are expected in power industries that share common characteristics. First, these evolutions suppose massive capital investments to modernize and adapt current power distribution grids. Second, it is expected the activation of distribution grids and final consumers will unleash substantial unexploited economic efficiency gains as well as impose new constraints. Taking these simple facts as a starting point, the objective of the thesis is twofold. In the first place, we provide a theoretical analysis of the regulatory instruments that monitor the system operators' expenses. Relying on the literature, we aim at characterizing what regulatory tools and incitation are suitable for investing in smart grids technologies. Since it is necessary to compare theoretical formulation to facts, we use an empirical approach that allows us to designate key benefits pursued by the development of smart grids and to compare our theoretical results with practical regulatory applications. Our findings eventually allow us to formulate recommendations. In the second place, the thesis focuses on the impacts of demand-side management during peak periods. We structure our approach around two general observations. Large benefits should be generated in lowering substantially peak demand. However, such situation also creates losses of profit for generators. We provide an estimation of efficiency gains and revenue losses

  12. Managing energy demand through transport policy: What can South Africa learn from Europe?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vanderschuren, Marianne; Lane, T.E.; Korver, W.

    2010-01-01

    For years, the world has enjoyed the luxury of inexpensive transport fuels, resulting in the continuous expansion of transport demand and vast improvements in mobility levels. The threat of peak oil and other environmental concerns, however, are forcing a paradigm shift in terms of transport planning. In recent times, many developed nations have been investigating alternative ways and means of weaning themselves off oil as the main transport energy source and managing transport energy demand. South Africa is a developing nation that, in terms of transportation technology and policy, lags behind developed countries. This presents South Africa with the opportunity to learn from other countries' triumphs and mistakes and to skip over obsolete investment patterns and ineffective policy. It needs to be determined what South Africa can do to bend the stream of continuously growing transport (energy) demand, without hampering growth in mobility. Solutions can potentially be found by looking at the European Union's past and present situation and responses. This paper summarises various European energy management transport policies. These policies are translated into a South African context-pros, cons and implementation viability are identified.

  13. Managing energy demand through transport policy. What can South Africa learn from Europe?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vanderschuren, Marianne [Centre for Transport Studies, Faculty of Engineering and the Built Environment, University of Cape Town, Private Bag, 7701 Rondebosch (South Africa); Lane, T.E. [Centre for Transport Studies, University of Cape Town (South Africa); Korver, W. [Goudappel Coffeng BV (Netherlands)

    2010-02-15

    For years, the world has enjoyed the luxury of inexpensive transport fuels, resulting in the continuous expansion of transport demand and vast improvements in mobility levels. The threat of peak oil and other environmental concerns, however, are forcing a paradigm shift in terms of transport planning. In recent times, many developed nations have been investigating alternative ways and means of weaning themselves off oil as the main transport energy source and managing transport energy demand. South Africa is a developing nation that, in terms of transportation technology and policy, lags behind developed countries. This presents South Africa with the opportunity to learn from other countries' triumphs and mistakes and to skip over obsolete investment patterns and in effective policy. It needs to be determined what South Africa can do to bend the stream of continuously growing transport (energy) demand, without hampering growth in mobility. Solutions can potentially be found by looking at the European Union's past and present situation and responses. This paper summarises various European energy management transport policies. These policies are translated into a South African context - pros, cons and implementation viability are identified. (author)

  14. Managing energy demand through transport policy: What can South Africa learn from Europe?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vanderschuren, Marianne, E-mail: marianne.vanderschuren@uct.ac.z [Centre for Transport Studies, Faculty of Engineering and the Built Environment, University of Cape Town, Private Bag, 7701 Rondebosch (South Africa); Lane, T.E., E-mail: lane.tanya@gmail.co [Centre for Transport Studies, University of Cape Town (South Africa); Korver, W., E-mail: WKorver@goudappel.n [Goudappel Coffeng BV (Netherlands)

    2010-02-15

    For years, the world has enjoyed the luxury of inexpensive transport fuels, resulting in the continuous expansion of transport demand and vast improvements in mobility levels. The threat of peak oil and other environmental concerns, however, are forcing a paradigm shift in terms of transport planning. In recent times, many developed nations have been investigating alternative ways and means of weaning themselves off oil as the main transport energy source and managing transport energy demand. South Africa is a developing nation that, in terms of transportation technology and policy, lags behind developed countries. This presents South Africa with the opportunity to learn from other countries' triumphs and mistakes and to skip over obsolete investment patterns and ineffective policy. It needs to be determined what South Africa can do to bend the stream of continuously growing transport (energy) demand, without hampering growth in mobility. Solutions can potentially be found by looking at the European Union's past and present situation and responses. This paper summarises various European energy management transport policies. These policies are translated into a South African context-pros, cons and implementation viability are identified.

  15. Future demand for electricity in Nigeria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ibitoye, F.I.; Adenikinju, A.

    2007-01-01

    Availability and reliability of electricity supplies have always been vexed issue in Nigeria. With an estimated population of 130 million people in AD 2005, Nigeria is the most populous country in Africa and belongs to the group of countries with the lowest electricity consumption per capita in the continent. Nigeria is also ranked among the poorest countries in the world. This paper examines the likely trend in the demand for electricity over the next 25 years under the assumptions that (i) there is a rapid economic development such that Nigeria transforms from low- to middle-income economy during this period, (ii) Nigeria meets the millennium development goals (MDG) in AD 2015, and (iii) the country achieves the status of an industrializing nation. For these to happen, this paper projects that electric-power generation will have to rise from the current capacity of 6500 MW to over 160 GW in AD 2030. This level of supply will be significant enough to increase the per capita electricity consumption to about 5000 kWh per capita by the year 2030. Even then, this just compares with the AD 2003 per capital consumption of some industrializing countries. Analysis of the level of investment required to meet the projected power demand indicates that annual investment cost will rise from US3.8 billion in AD 2006 to a peak of US21 billion in AD 2028. The total investment stream over the 25 year period comes to US262 billion or roughly US10 billion per annum. (author)

  16. Evaporative demand and water requirements of the principal crops of the Guadalentin valley (SE Spain) in drought periods

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sanchez-Toribio, M. I.; Garcia-Marin, R.; Conesa-Garcia, C.; Lopez-Bermudez, F.

    2010-07-01

    The drought periods that affect the province of Murcia, especially the Guadalentin Valley, are aggravated by an increase in evaporative demand. The aim of the present study was to characterize the increased water demand of woody and herbaceous crops during drought periods in the Guadalentin Valley, an agricultural zone with an excellent climate for specialty crops, which is of great economic importance for Murcia. After defining the drought periods of the last three decades in time and space by means of the standard index of rainfall drought (IESP), several methods were used to determine the reference evapotranspiration (ETo): the Penman-Monteith model (ASCE and FAO models for grass), the Hargreaves method (ETo-ASCE for alfalfa), and ETo using the FAO Radiation method. Finally, the crop water requirements for each to crop type and area of cultivation were estimated using monthly crop coefficients (K{sub c}) and the mean monthly evaporative demand values were obtained by the best fitting method. The increase in the evaporative demand reflected the increased water deficits that occur in the drought years, both in summer and winter (1.23 hm{sup 3} yr{sup -}1). Drought periods are also responsible for reducing the areas dedicated to horticultural crops, because of their high water demands and the additional costs involved, resulting an aggravated socioeconomic position and increased unemployment. (Author) 25 refs.

  17. Incentive-based demand response programs designed by asset-light retail electricity providers for the day-ahead market

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fotouhi Ghazvini, Mohammad Ali; Faria, Pedro; Ramos, Sergio

    2015-01-01

    how a REP with light physical assets, such as DG (distributed generation) units and ESS (energy storage systems), can survive in a competitive retail market. The paper discusses the effective risk management strategies for the REPs to deal with the uncertainties of the DAM (day-ahead market) and how...... to hedge the financial losses in the market. A two-stage stochastic programming problem is formulated. It aims to establish the financial incentive-based DR programs and the optimal dispatch of the DG units and ESSs. The uncertainty of the forecasted day-ahead load demand and electricity price is also...... taken into account with a scenario-based approach. The principal advantage of this model for REPs is reducing the risk of financial losses in DAMs, and the main benefit for the whole system is market power mitigation by virtually increasing the price elasticity of demand and reducing the peak demand....

  18. Electricity demand in Kazakhstan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Atakhanova, Zauresh; Howie, Peter

    2007-01-01

    Properties of electricity demand in transition economies have not been sufficiently well researched mostly due to data limitations. However, information on the properties of electricity demand is necessary for policy makers to evaluate effects of price changes on different consumers and obtain demand forecasts for capacity planning. This study estimates Kazakhstan's aggregate demand for electricity as well as electricity demand in the industrial, service, and residential sectors using regional data. Firstly, our results show that price elasticity of demand in all sectors is low. This fact suggests that there is considerable room for price increases necessary to finance generation and distribution system upgrading. Secondly, we find that income elasticity of demand in the aggregate and all sectoral models is less than unity. Of the three sectors, electricity demand in the residential sector has the lowest income elasticity. This result indicates that policy initiatives to secure affordability of electricity consumption to lower income residential consumers may be required. Finally, our forecast shows that electricity demand may grow at either 3% or 5% per year depending on rates of economic growth and government policy regarding price increases and promotion of efficiency. We find that planned supply increases would be sufficient to cover growing demand only if real electricity prices start to increase toward long-run cost-recovery levels and policy measures are implemented to maintain the current high growth of electricity efficiency

  19. Pulp and paper markets peaking amid slow economy, rising input costs, and erosion of profits : markets for paper, paperboard and woodpulp, 2007-2008

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peter J. Ince; Eduard L. Akim; Bernard Lombard; Tomas Parik

    2008-01-01

    In mid-2008, pulp and paper prices were at or near historic peak levels, but global demand conditions were weakening. Industry profits were eroded in 2007 and 2008 as sharply higher energy costs led to higher prices for fuel, freight, pulpwood, recovered paper, chemicals, and other inputs. Expanding pulp and paper capacity in China is having a huge impact on paper and...

  20. Passive radio frequency peak power multiplier

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farkas, Zoltan D.; Wilson, Perry B.

    1977-01-01

    Peak power multiplication of a radio frequency source by simultaneous charging of two high-Q resonant microwave cavities by applying the source output through a directional coupler to the cavities and then reversing the phase of the source power to the coupler, thereby permitting the power in the cavities to simultaneously discharge through the coupler to the load in combination with power from the source to apply a peak power to the load that is a multiplication of the source peak power.