WorldWideScience

Sample records for monthly global emission

  1. Monthly, global emissions of carbon dioxide from fossil fuel consumption

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andres, R.J.; Gregg, Jay Sterling; Losey, L.

    2011-01-01

    This paper examines available data, develops a strategy and presents a monthly, global time series of fossil-fuel carbon dioxide emissions for the years 1950–2006. This monthly time series was constructed from detailed study of monthly data from the 21 countries that account for approximately 80...... reproduces monthly patterns in the data and the global monthly pattern of emissions is relatively insensitive to the exact proxy assignments used. The data and results presented here should lead to a better understanding of global and regional carbon cycles, especially when the mass data are combined...... with the stable carbon isotope data in atmospheric transport models....

  2. ASTER Global Emissivity Dataset Monthly 0.05 degree HDF5

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) Global Emissivity Dataset (GED) is a collection of monthly files (see known issues for gaps)...

  3. ASTER Global Emissivity Data Set Monthly 0.05 degree V041 - AG5KMMOH

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) Global Emissivity Dataset (GED) is a collection of monthly files (see known issues for gaps)...

  4. ASTER Global Emissivity Data Set Monthly 0.05 degree V041 - AG5KMMOH

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) Global Emissivity Dataset (GED) is a collection of monthly files (see known issues for gaps)...

  5. ASTER Global Emissivity Dataset Monthly 0.05 degree NetCDF4

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) Global Emissivity Dataset (GED) is a collection of monthly files (see known issues for gaps)...

  6. ASTER Global Emissivity Dataset Monthly 0.05 degree NetCDF4

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) Global Emissivity Dataset (GED) is a collection of monthly files (see known issues for gaps)...

  7. An estimate of monthly global emissions of anthropogenic CO2: Impact on the seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Erickson, D [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL); Mills, R [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL); Gregg, J [University of Maryland; Blasing, T J [ORNL; Hoffman, F [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL); Andres, Robert Joseph [ORNL; Devries, M [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL); Zhu, Z [NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; Kawa, S [NASA Goddard Space Flight Center

    2008-01-01

    Monthly estimates of the global emissions of anthropogenic CO2 are presented. Approximating the seasonal CO2 emission cycle using a 2-harmonic Fourier series with coefficients as a function of latitude, the annual fluxes are decomposed into monthly flux estimates based on data for the United States and applied globally. These monthly anthropogenic CO2 flux estimates are then used to model atmospheric CO2 concentrations using meteorological fields from the NASA GEOS-4 data assimilation system. We find that the use of monthly resolved fluxes makes a significant difference in the seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO2 in and near those regions where anthropogenic CO2 is released to the atmosphere. Local variations of 2-6 ppmv CO2 in the seasonal cycle amplitude are simulated; larger variations would be expected if smaller source-receptor distances could be more precisely specified using a more refined spatial resolution. We also find that in the midlatitudes near the sources, synoptic scale atmospheric circulations are important in the winter and that boundary layer venting and diurnal rectifier effects are more important in the summer. These findings have implications for inverse-modeling efforts that attempt to estimate surface source/sink regions especially when the surface sinks are colocated with regions of strong anthropogenic CO2 emissions.

  8. MODIS/Aqua MYD11C3 Land Surface Temperature/Emissivity Monthly L3 Global 0.05Deg CMG Version 6

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — The MODIS/Aqua Land Surface Temperature and Emissivity (LST/E) products provide per-pixel temperature and emissivity values in a sequence of swath-based global...

  9. MODIS/TERRA MOD11C3 Land Surface Temperature and Emissivity Monthly L3 Global 0.05Deg CMG Version 6

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — The MODIS/Aqua Land Surface Temperature and Emissivity (LST/E) products provide per-pixel temperature and emissivity values in a sequence of swath-based global...

  10. Global Seabird Ammonia Emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riddick, S. N.; Blackall, T. D.; Dragosits, U.; Daunt, F. H.; Braban, C. F.; Tang, Y. S.; Trathan, P.; Wanless, S.; Sutton, M. A.

    2010-12-01

    Seabird colonies represent a major source of atmospheric ammonia (NH3) in remote coastal and marine systems in temperate, tropical and polar regions. Previous studies have shown that NH3 emissions from Scottish seabird colonies were substantial - of similar magnitude to the most intensive agricultural point source emissions. The UK data were used to model global seabird NH3 emissions and suggested that penguins are a major source of emissions on and around the Antarctic continent. The largest seabird colonies are in the order of millions of seabirds. Due to the isolation of these colonies from anthropogenic nitrogen sources, they may play a major role in the nitrogen cycle within these ecosystems. A global seabird database was constructed and used in conjunction with a species-specific seabird bioenergetics model to map the locations of NH3 emissions from seabird colonies. The accuracy of the modelled emissions was validated with field data of NH3 emissions measured at key seabird colonies in different climatic regions of the world: temperate (Isle of May, Scotland), tropical (Ascension Island) and polar (Signy Island, South Georgia). The field data indicated good agreement between modelled and measured NH3 emissions. The measured NH3 emissions also showed the variability of emission with climate. Climate dependence of seabird NH3 emissions may have further implications under a changing global climate. Seabird colonies represent NH3 emission ‘hotspots’, often far from anthropogenic sources, and are likely to be the major source of nitrogen input to these remote coastal ecosystems. The direct manuring by seabirds at colony locations may strongly influence species richness and biodiversity. The subsequent volatilisation and deposition of NH3 increases the spatial extent of seabird influence on nitrogen cycling in their local ecosystem. As many seabird populations are fluctuating due to changing food supply, climate change or anthropogenic pressures, these factors

  11. Rand Corporation Mean Monthly Global Snow Depth

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — All available monthly snow depth climatologies were integrated by the Rand Corporation, in the early 1980s, into one global (excluding Africa and South America)...

  12. Mercury Emissions: The Global Context

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mercury emissions are a global problem that knows no national or continental boundaries. Mercury that is emitted to the air can travel thousands of miles in the atmosphere before it is eventually deposited back to the earth.

  13. MODIS/TERRA MOD11C3 Land Surface Temperature and Emissivity Monthly L3 Global 0.05Deg CMG

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — The MODIS/Terra Land Surface Temperature and Emissivity (LST/E) products provide per-pixel temperature and emissivity values in a sequence of swath-based to...

  14. Towards combined global monthly gravity field solutions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaeggi, Adrian; Meyer, Ulrich; Beutler, Gerhard; Weigelt, Matthias; van Dam, Tonie; Mayer-Gürr, Torsten; Flury, Jakob; Flechtner, Frank; Dahle, Christoph; Lemoine, Jean-Michel; Bruinsma, Sean

    2014-05-01

    Currently, official GRACE Science Data System (SDS) monthly gravity field solutions are generated independently by the Centre for Space Research (CSR) and the German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ). Additional GRACE SDS monthly fields are provided by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) for validation and outside the SDS by a number of other institutions worldwide. Although the adopted background models and processing standards have been harmonized more and more by the various processing centers during the past years, notable differences still exist and the users are more or less left alone with a decision which model to choose for their individual applications. This procedure seriously limits the accessibility of these valuable data. Combinations are well established in the area of other space geodetic techniques, such as the Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS), Satellite Laser Ranging (SLR), and Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI). Regularly comparing and combining space-geodetic products has tremendously increased the usefulness of the products in a wide range of disciplines and scientific applications. Therefore, we propose in a first step to mutually compare the large variety of available monthly GRACE gravity field solutions, e.g., by assessing the signal content over selected regions, by estimating the noise over the oceans, and by performing significance tests. We make the attempt to assign different solution characteristics to different processing strategies in order to identify subsets of solutions, which are based on similar processing strategies. Using these subsets we will in a second step explore ways to generate combined solutions, e.g., based on a weighted average of the individual solutions using empirical weights derived from pair-wise comparisons. We will also assess the quality of such a combined solution and discuss the potential benefits for the GRACE and GRACE-FO user community, but also address minimum processing

  15. Learning from global emissions scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Neill, Brian C.; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa

    2008-10-01

    Scenarios of global greenhouse gas emissions have played a key role in climate change analysis for over twenty years. Currently, several research communities are organizing to undertake a new round of scenario development in the lead-up to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). To help inform this process, we assess a number of past efforts to develop and learn from sets of global greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. We conclude that while emissions scenario exercises have likely had substantial benefits for participating modeling teams and produced insights from individual models, learning from the exercises taken as a whole has been more limited. Model comparison exercises have typically focused on the production of large numbers of scenarios while investing little in assessing the results or the production process, perhaps on the assumption that later assessment efforts could play this role. However, much of this assessment potential remains untapped. Efforts such as scenario-related chapters of IPCC reports have been most informative when they have gone to extra lengths to carry out more specific comparison exercises, but in general these assessments do not have the remit or resources to carry out the kind of detailed analysis of scenario results necessary for drawing the most useful conclusions. We recommend that scenario comparison exercises build-in time and resources for assessing scenario results in more detail at the time when they are produced, that these exercises focus on more specific questions to improve the prospects for learning, and that additional scenario assessments are carried out separately from production exercises. We also discuss the obstacles to better assessment that might exist, and how they might be overcome. Finally, we recommend that future work include much greater emphasis on understanding how scenarios are actually used, as a guide to improving scenario production.

  16. Revisiting global fossil fuel and biofuel emissions of ethane

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tzompa-Sosa, Z. A.; Mahieu, E.; Franco, B.; Keller, C. A.; Turner, A. J.; Helmig, D.; Fried, A.; Richter, D.; Weibring, P.; Walega, J.; Yacovitch, T. I.; Herndon, S. C.; Blake, D. R.; Hase, F.; Hannigan, J. W.; Conway, S.; Strong, K.; Schneider, M.; Fischer, E. V.

    2017-02-01

    Recent measurements over the Northern Hemisphere indicate that the long-term decline in the atmospheric burden of ethane (C2H6) has ended and the abundance increased dramatically between 2010 and 2014. The rise in C2H6 atmospheric abundances has been attributed to oil and natural gas extraction in North America. Existing global C2H6 emission inventories are based on outdated activity maps that do not account for current oil and natural gas exploitation regions. We present an updated global C2H6 emission inventory based on 2010 satellite-derived CH4 fluxes with adjusted C2H6 emissions over the U.S. from the National Emission Inventory (NEI 2011). We contrast our global 2010 C2H6 emission inventory with one developed for 2001. The C2H6 difference between global anthropogenic emissions is subtle (7.9 versus 7.2 Tg yr-1), but the spatial distribution of the emissions is distinct. In the 2010 C2H6 inventory, fossil fuel sources in the Northern Hemisphere represent half of global C2H6 emissions and 95% of global fossil fuel emissions. Over the U.S., unadjusted NEI 2011 C2H6 emissions produce mixing ratios that are 14-50% of those observed by aircraft observations (2008-2014). When the NEI 2011 C2H6 emission totals are scaled by a factor of 1.4, the Goddard Earth Observing System Chem model largely reproduces a regional suite of observations, with the exception of the central U.S., where it continues to underpredict observed mixing ratios in the lower troposphere. We estimate monthly mean contributions of fossil fuel C2H6 emissions to ozone and peroxyacetyl nitrate surface mixing ratios over North America of 1% and 8%, respectively.

  17. Global Summary of the Month, version 1.0

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The global summaries data set contains a monthly (GSOM) resolution of meteorological elements (max temp, snow, etc) from 1763 to present with updates weekly. The...

  18. Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) - Monthly, Version 2.2

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) comprises a total of 27 products with the two primary products being the monthly satellite-gauge and associated...

  19. Global Historical Climatology Network - Monthly (GHCN-M), Version 3

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Since the early 1990s the Global Historical Climatology Network-Monthly (GHCN-M) dataset has been an internationally recognized source of data for the study of...

  20. Determinants and predictability of global wildfire emissions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Knorr

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Biomass burning is one of the largest sources of atmospheric trace gases and aerosols globally. These emissions have a major impact on the radiative balance of the atmosphere and on air quality, and are thus of significant scientific and societal interest. Several datasets have been developed that quantify those emissions on a global grid and offered to the atmospheric modelling community. However, no study has yet attempted to systematically quantify the dependence of the inferred pyrogenic emissions on underlying assumptions and input data. Such a sensitivity study is needed for understanding how well we can currently model those emissions and what the factors are that contribute to uncertainties in those emission estimates.

    Here, we combine various satellite-derived burned area products, a terrestrial ecosystem model to simulate fuel loads and the effect of fire on ecosystem dynamics, a model of fuel combustion, and various emission models that relate combusted biomass to the emission of various trace gases and aerosols. We carry out simulations with varying parameters for combustion completeness and fuel decomposition rates within published estimates, four different emissions models and three different global burned-area products. We find that variations in combustion completeness and simulated fuel loads have the largest impact on simulated global emissions for most species, except for some with highly uncertain emission factors. Variation in burned-area estimates also contribute considerably to emission uncertainties. We conclude that global models urgently need more field-based data for better parameterisation of combustion completeness and validation of simulated fuel loads, and that further validation and improvement of burned area information is necessary for accurately modelling global wildfire emissions. The results are important for chemical transport modelling studies, and for simulations of biomass burning impacts on the

  1. Global biogeochemical modeling of contemporary fire emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Randerson, J. T.; Depaz, J. M.; van der Werf, G. R.; Giglio, L.; Morton, D. C.; Kasibhatla, P.; Defries, R. S.; Jin, Y.; Mu, M.; Collatz, G. J.

    2008-12-01

    Improved estimates of contemporary fire emissions are needed to better understand the effects of a changing fire regime on climate and air quality. At a global scale, uncertainties in fire emissions arise from several sources, including estimates of burned area, aboveground biomass, combustion completeness, and emission factors. The development of long-term time series requires addressing additional sources of uncertainty related to the integration of different satellite fire products, the representation of organic soils and peatlands, and the use of fire in the deforestation process. Here we describe improvements to a global fire emissions time series (Global Fire Emissions Database version 3) that reduce uncertainties associated with many of the factors described above. We then characterized long-term trends in fire emissions for different continental-scale regions during 1996-2007. Using South America as an example, we show how climate and human activity contribute to interannual variability in emissions and how the spatial pattern of emissions has changed over time. In a final step we use atmospheric observations of carbon monoxide (CO) from Measurements Of Pollution In The Troposphere (MOPITT) and Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES) to refine and validate our bottom-up emissions estimates for South America.

  2. Global sulfur emissions from 1850 to 2000.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stern, David I

    2005-01-01

    The ASL database provides continuous time-series of sulfur emissions for most countries in the World from 1850 to 1990, but academic and official estimates for the 1990s either do not cover all years or countries. This paper develops continuous time series of sulfur emissions by country for the period 1850-2000 with a particular focus on developments in the 1990s. Global estimates for 1996-2000 are the first that are based on actual observed data. Raw estimates are obtained in two ways. For countries and years with existing published data I compile and integrate that data. Previously published data covers the majority of emissions and almost all countries have published emissions for at least 1995. For the remaining countries and for missing years for countries with some published data, I interpolate or extrapolate estimates using either an econometric emissions frontier model, an environmental Kuznets curve model, or a simple extrapolation, depending on the availability of data. Finally, I discuss the main movements in global and regional emissions in the 1990s and earlier decades and compare the results to other studies. Global emissions peaked in 1989 and declined rapidly thereafter. The locus of emissions shifted towards East and South Asia, but even this region peaked in 1996. My estimates for the 1990s show a much more rapid decline than other global studies, reflecting the view that technological progress in reducing sulfur based pollution has been rapid and is beginning to diffuse worldwide.

  3. Greenhouse gas emissions intensity of global croplands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlson, Kimberly M.; Gerber, James S.; Mueller, Nathaniel D.; Herrero, Mario; MacDonald, Graham K.; Brauman, Kate A.; Havlik, Petr; O'Connell, Christine S.; Johnson, Justin A.; Saatchi, Sassan; West, Paul C.

    2017-01-01

    Stabilizing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from croplands as agricultural demand grows is a critical component of climate change mitigation. Emissions intensity metrics--including carbon dioxide equivalent emissions per kilocalorie produced (`production intensity’)--can highlight regions, management practices, and crops as potential foci for mitigation. Yet the spatial and crop-wise distribution of emissions intensity has been uncertain. Here, we develop global crop-specific circa 2000 estimates of GHG emissions and GHG intensity in high spatial detail, reporting the effects of rice paddy management, peatland draining, and nitrogen (N) fertilizer on CH4, CO2 and N2O emissions. Global mean production intensity is 0.16 Mg CO2e M kcal-1, yet certain cropping practices contribute disproportionately to emissions. Peatland drainage (3.7 Mg CO2e M kcal-1)--concentrated in Europe and Indonesia--accounts for 32% of these cropland emissions despite peatlands producing just 1.1% of total crop kilocalories. Methane emissions from rice (0.58 Mg CO2e M kcal-1), a crucial food staple supplying 15% of total crop kilocalories, contribute 48% of cropland emissions, with outsized production intensity in Vietnam. In contrast, N2O emissions from N fertilizer application (0.033 Mg CO2e M kcal-1) generate only 20% of cropland emissions. We find that current total GHG emissions are largely unrelated to production intensity across crops and countries. Climate mitigation policies should therefore be directed to locations where crops have both high emissions and high intensities.

  4. Global methane emissions from pit latrines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reid, Matthew C; Guan, Kaiyu; Wagner, Fabian; Mauzerall, Denise L

    2014-01-01

    Pit latrines are an important form of decentralized wastewater management, providing hygienic and low-cost sanitation for approximately one-quarter of the global population. Latrines are also major sources of the greenhouse gas methane (CH4) from the anaerobic decomposition of organic matter in pits. In this study, we develop a spatially explicit approach to account for local hydrological control over the anaerobic condition of latrines and use this analysis to derive a set of country-specific emissions factors and to estimate global pit latrine CH4 emissions. Between 2000 and 2015 we project global emissions to fall from 5.2 to 3.8 Tg y(-1), or from ∼ 2% to ∼ 1% of global anthropogenic CH4 emissions, due largely to urbanization in China. Two and a half billion people still lack improved sanitation services, however, and progress toward universal access to improved sanitation will likely drive future growth in pit latrine emissions. We discuss modeling results in the context of sustainable water, sanitation, and hygiene development and consider appropriate technologies to ensure hygienic sanitation while limiting CH4 emissions. We show that low-CH4 on-site alternatives like composting toilets may be price competitive with other CH4 mitigation measures in organic waste sectors, with marginal abatement costs ranging from 57 to 944 $/ton carbon dioxide equivalents (CO2e) in Africa and 46 to 97 $/ton CO2e in Asia.

  5. Revised spatially distributed global livestock emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asrar, G.; Wolf, J.; West, T. O.

    2015-12-01

    Livestock play an important role in agricultural carbon cycling through consumption of biomass and emissions of methane. Quantification and spatial distribution of methane and carbon dioxide produced by livestock is needed to develop bottom-up estimates for carbon monitoring. These estimates serve as stand-alone international emissions estimates, as input to global emissions modeling, and as comparisons or constraints to flux estimates from atmospheric inversion models. Recent results for the US suggest that the 2006 IPCC default coefficients may underestimate livestock methane emissions. In this project, revised coefficients were calculated for cattle and swine in all global regions, based on reported changes in body mass, quality and quantity of feed, milk production, and management of living animals and manure for these regions. New estimates of livestock methane and carbon dioxide emissions were calculated using the revised coefficients and global livestock population data. Spatial distribution of population data and associated fluxes was conducted using the MODIS Land Cover Type 5, version 5.1 (i.e. MCD12Q1 data product), and a previously published downscaling algorithm for reconciling inventory and satellite-based land cover data at 0.05 degree resolution. Preliminary results for 2013 indicate greater emissions than those calculated using the IPCC 2006 coefficients. Global total enteric fermentation methane increased by 6%, while manure management methane increased by 38%, with variation among species and regions resulting in improved spatial distributions of livestock emissions. These new estimates of total livestock methane are comparable to other recently reported studies for the entire US and the State of California. These new regional/global estimates will improve the ability to reconcile top-down and bottom-up estimates of methane production as well as provide updated global estimates for use in development and evaluation of Earth system models.

  6. Global Commercial Aviation Emissions Inventory for 2004

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilkerson, J.; Balasubramanian, S.; Malwitz, A.; Wayson, R.; Fleming, G.; Jacobson, M. Z.; Naiman, A.; Lele, S.

    2008-12-01

    In 2004, the global commercial aircraft fleet included more than 13,000 aircraft flying over 30 billion km, burning more than 100 million tons of fuel. All this activity incurs substantial amounts of fossil-fuel combustion products at the cruise altitude within the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere that could potentially affect the atmospheric composition and climate. These emissions; such as CO, CO2, PM, NOx, SOx, are not distributed uniformly over the earth, so understanding the temporal and spatial distributions is an important component for modeling aviation climate impacts. Previous studies for specific years have shown that nearly all activity occurs in the northern hemisphere, and most is within mid-latitudes. Simply scaling older data by the annual global industry growth of 3-5 percent may provide emission trends which are not representative of geographically varying growth in aviation sector that has been noted over the past years. India, for example, increased its domestic aviation activity recently by 46 percent in one year. Therefore, it is important that aircraft emissions are best characterized and represented in the atmospheric models for impacts analysis. Data containing all global commercial flights for 2004 was computed using the Federal Aviation Administration's Aviation Environmental Design Tool (AEDT) and provided by the Volpe National Transportation Systems Center. The following is a summary of this data which illustrates the global aviation footprint for 2004, and provides temporal and three-dimensional spatial distribution statistics of several emissions constituents.

  7. Global civil aviation black carbon emissions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stettler, Marc E J; Boies, Adam M; Petzold, Andreas; Barrett, Steven R H

    2013-09-17

    Aircraft black carbon (BC) emissions contribute to climate forcing, but few estimates of BC emitted by aircraft at cruise exist. For the majority of aircraft engines the only BC-related measurement available is smoke number (SN)-a filter based optical method designed to measure near-ground plume visibility, not mass. While the first order approximation (FOA3) technique has been developed to estimate BC mass emissions normalized by fuel burn [EI(BC)] from SN, it is shown that it underestimates EI(BC) by >90% in 35% of directly measured cases (R(2) = -0.10). As there are no plans to measure BC emissions from all existing certified engines-which will be in service for several decades-it is necessary to estimate EI(BC) for existing aircraft on the ground and at cruise. An alternative method, called FOX, that is independent of the SN is developed to estimate BC emissions. Estimates of EI(BC) at ground level are significantly improved (R(2) = 0.68), whereas estimates at cruise are within 30% of measurements. Implementing this approach for global civil aviation estimated aircraft BC emissions are revised upward by a factor of ~3. Direct radiative forcing (RF) due to aviation BC emissions is estimated to be ~9.5 mW/m(2), equivalent to ~1/3 of the current RF due to aviation CO2 emissions.

  8. Monthly and spatially resolved black carbon emission inventory of India: uncertainty analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paliwal, Umed; Sharma, Mukesh; Burkhart, John F.

    2016-10-01

    Black carbon (BC) emissions from India for the year 2011 are estimated to be 901.11 ± 151.56 Gg yr-1 based on a new ground-up, GIS-based inventory. The grid-based, spatially resolved emission inventory includes, in addition to conventional sources, emissions from kerosene lamps, forest fires, diesel-powered irrigation pumps and electricity generators at mobile towers. The emissions have been estimated at district level and were spatially distributed onto grids at a resolution of 40 × 40 km2. The uncertainty in emissions has been estimated using a Monte Carlo simulation by considering the variability in activity data and emission factors. Monthly variation of BC emissions has also been estimated to account for the seasonal variability. To the total BC emissions, domestic fuels contributed most significantly (47 %), followed by industry (22 %), transport (17 %), open burning (12 %) and others (2 %). The spatial and seasonal resolution of the inventory will be useful for modeling BC transport in the atmosphere for air quality, global warming and other process-level studies that require greater temporal resolution than traditional inventories.

  9. Grazing the Commons. Global Carbon Emissions Forever?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Melenberg, B. [CentER and Department of Econometrics and Operations Research, Tilburg University, Tilburg (Netherlands); Vollebergh, H.R.J. [Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency PBL, Bilthoven (Netherlands); Dijkgraaf, E. [SEOR-ECRi and Tinbergen Institute, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Rotterdam (Netherlands)

    2011-02-15

    This paper presents the results from our investigation of the per-capita, long-term relation between carbon dioxide emissions and gross domestic product (GDP) for the world, obtained with the use of a new, flexible estimator. Consistent with simple economic growth models, we find that regional, population-weighted per-capita emissions systematically increase with income (scale effect) and usually decline over time (composition and technology effect). Both our in-sample results and out-of-sample scenarios indicate that this negative time effect is unlikely to compensate for the upward-income effect at a global level, in the near future. In particular, even if China's specialization in carbon-intensive industrial sectors would come to a halt, recent trends outside China make a reversal of the overall global trend very unlikely.

  10. Research on Global Carbon Emission and Sequestration

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2011-01-01

    Prof.Fang Jingyun,member of the Chinese Academy of Science,of Peking University and colleagues published an online article on Science in July,2011 introducing the findings of an international research group about the global carbon emission and sequestration which will produce significant influence on researches on climate change as well as the international climate change policies.The research project was funded by NSFC and MOST.

  11. Global contrail coverage simulated by CAM5 with the inventory of 2006 global aircraft emissions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cheryl Craig

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper documents the incorporation of an inventory of the AEDT (Aviation Environmental Design Tool global commercial aircraft emissions for the year of 2006 into the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Earth System Model (CESM version 1. The original dataset reports aircraft emission mass of ten specieson an hourly basis which is converted to monthly emission mixing ratio tendencies as the released version of the dataset. We also describe how the released aircraft emission dataset is incorporated into CESM.A contrail parameterization is implemented in the CESM in which it isassumed that persistent contrails initially form when aircraft water vapor emissions experience a favorable atmospheric environment. Both aircraft emissions and ambient humidity are attributed to the formation of contrails. The ice water content of contrails is assumed to follow an empirical function of atmospheric temperature which determines the cloud fraction associated with contrails.Our modeling study indicates that the simulated global contrail coverage is sensitive to the vertical resolution of the GCMsin the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere because of modelassumptions about the vertical overlap structure of clouds.Futhermore, the extent of global contrail coverage simulated by CESM exhibits a seasonal cycle which is in broad agreement with observations.

  12. The Role of Global Emission Inventory of Carbonaceous Emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fatima, H.; Sharma, O. P.; Updhyaya, H.

    2010-12-01

    Aerosols - liquid or solid particles suspended in the air - are important constituents of the global atmosphere. They have a direct effect on climate by scattering and/or absorbing solar radiation modifying the radiative balance of the atmosphere and indirect effect by acting as condensation nuclei, their increase in number concentration may give rise to increased number of cloud condensation nuclei, which might increase the droplet concentration with relatively smaller size droplets for fixed liquid water content, making clouds more reflective (Twomey, 1977). Recent measurements show that atmospheric black carbon (BC) and organic carbon (OC) aerosol particles frequently contribute significantly to the total aerosol mass (Novakov et al. 1997). BC is emitted as primary particles from incomplete combustion process, such as fossil fuel and biomass burning, and therefore much atmospheric BC is of anthropogenic origin. OC is emitted as both primary particles and by secondary production from gaseous compounds via condensation or gas phase oxidation of hydrocarbons. Primary organic aerosols come from both anthropogenic sources (fossil fuel and biomass burning) and from natural sources (such as debris, pollen, spores, and algae). Carbonaceous aerosols make up a large but highly variable fraction of the atmospheric aerosol. Black carbon aerosols absorb the solar radiation and induce positive forcing whereas organic matter aerosols reflect solar radiation and produce negative forcing. Various emission inventories have been developed for carbonaceous aerosols. Detailed emission inventories for both BC and OC have been developed (e.g., Penner et al., 1993; Cooke and Wilson, 1996; Liousse et al., 1996; Cooke et al., 1999, Bond et al. 2004) that consider both fossil fuel and biomass components. The inventories of biomass- burning BC and OC particles are more difficult to constrain than fossil fuel emissions, owing to the paucity of data. In the present study we have compared the

  13. Constraining global methane emissions and uptake by ecosystems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Spahni

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Natural methane (CH4 emissions from wet ecosystems are an important part of today's global CH4 budget. Climate affects the exchange of CH4 between ecosystems and the atmosphere by influencing CH4 production, oxidation, and transport in the soil. The net CH4 exchange depends on ecosystem hydrology, soil and vegetation characteristics. Here, the LPJ-WHyMe global dynamical vegetation model is used to simulate global net CH4 emissions for different ecosystems: northern peatlands (45°–90° N, naturally inundated wetlands (60° S–45° N, rice agriculture and wet mineral soils. Mineral soils are a potential CH4 sink, but can also be a source with the direction of the net exchange depending on soil moisture content. The geographical and seasonal distributions are evaluated against multi-dimensional atmospheric inversions for 2003–2005, using two independent four-dimensional variational assimilation systems. The atmospheric inversions are constrained by the atmospheric CH4 observations of the SCIAMACHY satellite instrument and global surface networks. Compared to LPJ-WHyMe the inversions result in a significant reduction in the emissions from northern peatlands and suggest that LPJ-WHyMe maximum annual emissions peak about one month late. The inversions do not put strong constraints on the division of sources between inundated wetlands and wet mineral soils in the tropics. Based on the inversion results we adapt model parameters in LPJ-WHyMe and simulate the surface exchange of CH4 over the period 1990–2008. Over the whole period we infer an increase of global ecosystem CH4 emissions of +1.11 Tg CH4 yr−1, not considering potential additional changes in wetland extent. The increase in simulated CH4 emissions is attributed to enhanced soil respiration resulting from the observed rise in land temperature

  14. Constraining global methane emissions and uptake by ecosystems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Spahni

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Natural methane (CH4 emissions from wet ecosystems are an important part of today's global CH4 budget. Climate affects the exchange of CH4 between ecosystems and the atmosphere by influencing CH4 production, oxidation, and transport in the soil. The net CH4 exchange depends on ecosystem hydrology, soil and vegetation characteristics. Here, the LPJ-WHyMe global dynamical vegetation model is used to simulate global net CH4 emissions for different ecosystems: northern peatlands (45°–90° N, naturally inundated wetlands (60° S–45° N, rice agriculture and wet mineral soils. Mineral soils are a potential CH4 sink, but can also be a source with the direction of the net exchange depending on soil moisture content. The geographical and seasonal distributions are evaluated against multi-dimensional atmospheric inversions for 2003–2005, using two independent four-dimensional variational assimilation systems. The atmospheric inversions are constrained by the atmospheric CH4 observations of the SCIAMACHY satellite instrument and global surface networks. Compared to LPJ-WHyMe the inversions result in a~significant reduction in the emissions from northern peatlands and suggest that LPJ-WHyMe maximum annual emissions peak about one month late. The inversions do not put strong constraints on the division of sources between inundated wetlands and wet mineral soils in the tropics. Based on the inversion results we diagnose model parameters in LPJ-WHyMe and simulate the surface exchange of CH4 over the period 1990–2008. Over the whole period we infer an increase of global ecosystem CH4 emissions of +1.11 Tg CH4 yr−1, not considering potential additional changes in wetland extent. The increase in simulated CH4 emissions is attributed to enhanced soil respiration resulting from the observed rise in land

  15. Global forestry emission projections and abatement costs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Böttcher, H.; Gusti, M.; Mosnier, A.; Havlik, P.; Obersteiner, M.

    2012-04-01

    In this paper we present forestry emission projections and associated Marginal Abatement Cost Curves (MACCs) for individual countries, based on economic, social and policy drivers. The activities cover deforestation, afforestation, and forestry management. The global model tools G4M and GLOBIOM, developed at IIASA, are applied. GLOBIOM uses global scenarios of population, diet, GDP and energy demand to inform G4M about future land and commodity prices and demand for bioenergy and timber. G4M projects emissions from afforestation, deforestation and management of existing forests. Mitigation measures are simulated by introducing a carbon tax. Mitigation activities like reducing deforestation or enhancing afforestation are not independent of each other. In contrast to existing forestry mitigation cost curves the presented MACCs are not developed for individual activities but total forest land management which makes the estimated potentials more realistic. In the assumed baseline gross deforestation drops globally from about 12 Mha in 2005 to below 10 Mha after 2015 and reach 0.5 Mha in 2050. Afforestation rates remain fairly constant at about 7 Mha annually. Although we observe a net area increase of global forest area after 2015 net emissions from deforestation and afforestation are positive until 2045 as the newly afforested areas accumulate carbon rather slowly. About 200 Mt CO2 per year in 2030 in Annex1 countries could be mitigated at a carbon price of 50 USD. The potential for forest management improvement is very similar. Above 200 USD the potential is clearly constrained for both options. In Non-Annex1 countries avoided deforestation can achieve about 1200 Mt CO2 per year at a price of 50 USD. The potential is less constrained compared to the potential in Annex1 countries, achieving a potential of 1800 Mt CO2 annually in 2030 at a price of 1000 USD. The potential from additional afforestation is rather limited due to high baseline afforestation rates assumed

  16. Evaluating Global Emission Inventories of Biogenic Bromocarbons

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hossaini, Ryan; Mantle, H.; Chipperfield, M. P.; Montzka, S. A.; Hamer, P.; Ziska, F.; Quack, B.; Kruger, K.; Tegtmeier, S.; Atlas, E.; Sala, S.; Engel, A.; Bonisch, H.; Keber, T.; Oram, D.; Mills, G.; Ordonez, C.; Saiz-Lopez, A.; Warwick, N.; Liang, Q.; Feng, W.; Moore, F.; Miller, F.; Marecal, V.; Richards, N. A. D.; Dorf, M.; Pfeilsticker, K.

    2013-01-01

    Emissions of halogenated very short-lived substances (VSLS) are poorly constrained. However, their inclusion in global models is required to simulate a realistic inorganic bromine (Bry) loading in both the troposphere, where bromine chemistry perturbs global oxidizing capacity, and in the stratosphere, where it is a major sink for ozone (O3). We have performed simulations using a 3-D chemical transport model (CTM) including three top-down and a single bottom-up derived emission inventory of the major brominated VSLS bromoform (CHBr3) and dibromomethane (CH2Br2). We perform the first concerted evaluation of these inventories, comparing both the magnitude and spatial distribution of emissions. For a quantitative evaluation of each inventory, model output is compared with independent long-term observations at National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) ground-based stations and with aircraft observations made during the NSF (National Science Foundation) HIAPER Pole-to-Pole Observations (HIPPO) project. For CHBr3, the mean absolute deviation between model and surface observation ranges from 0.22 (38 %) to 0.78 (115 %) parts per trillion (ppt) in the tropics, depending on emission inventory. For CH2Br2, the range is 0.17 (24 %) to 1.25 (167 %) ppt. We also use aircraft observations made during the 2011 Stratospheric Ozone: Halogen Impacts in a Varying Atmosphere (SHIVA) campaign, in the tropical western Pacific. Here, the performance of the various inventories also varies significantly, but overall the CTM is able to reproduce observed CHBr3 well in the free troposphere using an inventory based on observed sea-to-air fluxes. Finally, we identify the range of uncertainty associated with these VSLS emission inventories on stratospheric bromine loading due to VSLS (Br(VSLS/y)). Our simulations show Br(VSLS/y) ranges from approximately 4.0 to 8.0 ppt depending on the inventory. We report an optimized estimate at the lower end of this range (approximately 4 ppt

  17. A new method to calculate monthly CO emissions using MOPITT satellite data

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LIN YunPing; ZHAO ChunSheng; PENG Li; FANG YuanYuan

    2007-01-01

    A new method is developed to calculate monthly CO emission data using MOZART modeled and MOPITT observed CO data in 2004. New CO emission data were obtained with budget analysis of the processes controlling CO concentration such as surface emission, transport, chemical transform and dry deposition. MOPITT data were used to constrain the model simulation. New CO emission data agree well with Horowitz's emissions in the spatial distributions. Horowitz's emissions are found to underestimate CO emissions significantly in the industrial areas of Asia and North America, where high CO emissions are mainly due to the anthropogenic activities. New CO emissions can better reflect the more recent CO actual emissions than Horowitz's.

  18. ASTER Global Emissivity Dataset 100-meter V003 - AG100

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — The Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection radiometer Global Emissivity Database (ASTER GED) was developed by the National Aeronautics and Space...

  19. Boreal summer quasi-monthly oscillation in the global tropics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Bin; Kikuchi, Kazuyoshi [University of Hawaii, Department of Meteorology and the International Pacific Research Center (IPRC), Honolulu, HI (United States); Webster, Peter [Georgia Tech University, School of Earth and Atmospheric Science and Civil and Environmental Engineering, Atlanta, GA (United States); Yasunari, Tetsuzo [Nagoya University, Hydrospheric and Atmospheric Research Center, Nagoya (Japan); Qi, Yanjun [Chinese Academy of Science, Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Beijing (China)

    2006-12-15

    The boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) in the global tropics is documented here using a 7-year suite (1998-2004) of satellite measurements. A composite scenario was made of 28 selected events with reference to the oscillation in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean (EIO), where the oscillation is most regular and its intensity is indicative of the strength of the subsequent northward propagation. The average oscillation period is about 32 days, and this quasi-monthly oscillation (QMO) is primarily confined to the tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans. Topics that were investigated are the partition of convective versus stratiform clouds, the vertical structure of precipitation rates, and the evolution of cloud types during the initial organization and the development of intraseasonal convective anomalies in the central Indian Ocean. During the initiation of the convective anomalies, the stratiform and convective rains have comparable rates; the prevailing cloud type experiences a trimodal evolution from shallow to deep convection, and finally to anvil and extended stratiform clouds. A major northwest/southeast-slanted rainband forms as the equatorial rainfall anomalies reach Sumatra, and the rainband subsequently propagates northeastward into the west Pacific Ocean. The enhanced precipitation in the west Pacific then rapidly traverses the Pacific along the Intertropical Convergence Zone, meanwhile migrating northward to the Philippine Sea. A seesaw teleconnection in rainfall anomalies is found between the southern Bay of Bengal (5-15 N, 80-100 E) and the eastern Pacific (5-15 N, 85-105 W). Local sea-surface temperature (SST)-rainfall anomalies display a negative simultaneous correlation in the off-equatorial regions but a zero correlation (quadrature phase relationship) near the equator. We propose that atmosphere-ocean interaction and the vertical monsoon easterly shear are important contributors to the northeastward propagation component of the

  20. Global monthly water stress: 2. Water demand and severity of water stress

    OpenAIRE

    Wada, Yoshihide; Van Beek, L. P. H.; Viviroli, Daniel; Dürr, Hans H.; Weingartner, Rolf; Bierkens, Marc F. P.

    2011-01-01

    This paper assesses global water stress at a finer temporal scale compared to conventional assessments. To calculate time series of global water stress at a monthly time scale, global water availability, as obtained from simulations of monthly river discharge from the companion paper, is confronted with global monthly water demand. Water demand is defined here as the volume of water required by users to satisfy their needs. Water demand is calculated for the benchmark year of 2000 and contras...

  1. Global monthly water stress: 2. Water demand and severity of water stress

    OpenAIRE

    Wada, Yoshihide; Beek, L. P. H.; Viviroli, Daniel; Dürr, Hans H; Weingartner, Rolf; Bierkens, Marc F.P.

    2011-01-01

    This paper assesses global water stress at a finer temporal scale compared to conventional assessments. To calculate time series of global water stress at a monthly time scale, global water availability, as obtained from simulations of monthly river discharge from the companion paper, is confronted with global monthly water demand. Water demand is defined here as the volume of water required by users to satisfy their needs. Water demand is calculated for the benchmark year of 2000 and contras...

  2. Global monthly water stress: II. Water demand and severity of water

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wada, Y.; Beek, L.P.H. van; Viviroli, D.; Dürr, H.H.; Weingartner, R.; Bierkens, M.F.P.

    2011-01-01

    This paper assesses global water stress at a finer temporal scale compared to conventional assessments. To calculate time series of global water stress at a monthly time scale, global water availability, as obtained from simulations of monthly river discharge from the companion paper, is confronted

  3. Global monthly water stress: II. Water demand and severity of water

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wada, Y.; Beek, L.P.H. van; Viviroli, D.; Dürr, H.H.; Weingartner, R.; Bierkens, M.F.P.

    2011-01-01

    This paper assesses global water stress at a finer temporal scale compared to conventional assessments. To calculate time series of global water stress at a monthly time scale, global water availability, as obtained from simulations of monthly river discharge from the companion paper, is confronted

  4. Decoupling of greenhouse gas emissions from global agricultural production

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bennetzen, Eskild Hohlmann; Smith, Pete; Porter, John Roy

    2016-01-01

    Since 1970 global agricultural production has more than doubled; contributing ~1/4 of total anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) burden in 2010. Food production must increase to feed our growing demands, but to address climate change, GHG emissions must decrease. Using an identity approach, we...... estimate and analyse past trends in GHG emission intensities from global agricultural production and land-use change and project potential future emissions. The novel Kaya-Porter identity framework deconstructs the entity of emissions from a mix of multiple sources of GHGs into attributable elements...... allowing not only a combined analysis of the total level of all emissions jointly with emissions per unit area and emissions per unit product. It also allows us to examine how a change in emissions from a given source contributes to the change in total emissions over time. We show that agricultural...

  5. State of the Climate Monthly Overview - Global Snow & Ice

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The State of the Climate is a collection of periodic summaries recapping climate-related occurrences on both a global and national scale. The State of the Climate...

  6. Drivers of the Growth in Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Arto, Inaki; Dietzenbacher, Erik

    2014-01-01

    Greenhouse gas emissions increased by 8.9 Gigatons CO2 equivalent (Gt) in the period 1995-2008. A phenomenon that has received due attention is the upsurge of emission transfers via international trade. A question that has remained unanswered is whether trade changes have affected global emissions.

  7. International Surface Temperature Initiative (ISTI) Global Land Surface Temperature Databank - Stage 2 Monthly

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The global land surface temperature databank contains monthly timescale mean, max, and min temperature for approximately 40,000 stations globally. It was developed...

  8. International Surface Temperature Initiative (ISTI) Global Land Surface Temperature Databank - Stage 3 Monthly

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Global Land Surface Temperature Databank contains monthly timescale mean, maximum, and minimum temperature for approximately 40,000 stations globally. It was...

  9. International Surface Temperature Initiative (ISTI) Global Land Surface Temperature Databank - Stage 1 Monthly

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The global land surface temperature databank contains monthly timescale mean, max, and min temperature for approximately 40,000 stations globally. It was developed...

  10. Smithsonian Institution: Bulletin of the Global Volcanism Network. Monthly report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1990-01-01

    Scientific Event Alert Network is a monthly bulletin reporting timely information on worldwide natural science events such as volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, fireballs, meteorite falls and finds, marine mammal strandings and sightings, discoveries of unusual natural history specimens, and population biology events, including migrations, diseases and afflictions, and mortalities.

  11. Trends in global CO2 emissions. 2013 Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Olivier, J.G.J.; Peters, J.A.H.W. [PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Den Haag (Netherlands); Janssens-Maenhout, G. [Institute for Environment and Sustainability IES, European Commission' s Joint Research Centre JRC, Ispra (Italy); Muntean, M. [Institute for Environment and Sustainability IES, Joint Research Centre JRC, Ispra (Italy)

    2013-10-15

    This report discusses the results of a trend assessment of global CO2 emissions up to 2012 and updates last year's assessment. This assessment focuses on the changes in annual CO2 emissions from 2011 to 2012, and includes not only fossil-fuel combustion on which the BP reports are based, but also incorporates other relevant CO2 emissions sources including flaring of waste gas during gas and oil production, cement clinker production and other limestone uses, feedstock and other non-energy uses of fuels, and several other small sources. The report clarifies the CO2 emission sources covered, and describes the methodology and data sources. More details are provided in Annex 1 over the 2010-2012 period, including a discussion of the degree of uncertainty in national and global CO2 emission estimates. Chapter 2 presents a summary of recent CO2 emission trends, per main country or region, including a comparison between emissions per capita and per unit of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and of the underlying trend in fossil-fuel production and use, non-fossil energy and other CO2 sources. Specific attention is given to developments in shale gas and oil production and oil sands production and their impact on CO2 emissions. To provide a broader context of global emissions trends, international greenhouse gas mitigation targets and agreements are also presented, including different perspectives of emission accounting per country. In particular, annual trends with respect to the Kyoto Protocol target and Cancun agreements and cumulative global CO2 emissions of the last decade are compared with scientific literature that analyses global emissions in relation to the target of 2{sup 0}C maximum global warming in the 21st century, which was adopted in the UN climate negotiations. In addition, we briefly discuss the rapid development and implementation of various emission trading schemes, because of their increasing importance as a cross-cutting policy instrument for mitigating

  12. Development of a Global Historic Monthly Mean Precipitation Dataset

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    杨溯; 徐文慧; 许艳; 李庆祥

    2016-01-01

    Global historic precipitation dataset is the base for climate and water cycle research. There have been several global historic land surface precipitation datasets developed by international data centers such as the US National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), European Climate Assessment & Dataset project team, Met Office, etc., but so far there are no such datasets developed by any research institute in China. In addition, each dataset has its own focus of study region, and the existing global precipitation datasets only contain sparse observational stations over China, which may result in uncertainties in East Asian precipitation studies. In order to take into account comprehensive historic information, users might need to employ two or more datasets. However, the non-uniform data formats, data units, station IDs, and so on add extra difficulties for users to exploit these datasets. For this reason, a complete historic precipitation dataset that takes advantages of various datasets has been developed and produced in the National Meteorological Information Center of China. Precipitation observations from 12 sources are aggregated, and the data formats, data units, and station IDs are unified. Duplicated stations with the same ID are identified, with duplicated observations removed. Consistency test, correlation coefficient test, significance t-test at the 95% confidence level, and significance F-test at the 95% confidence level are conducted first to ensure the data reliability. Only those datasets that satisfy all the above four criteria are integrated to produce the China Meteorological Administration global precipitation (CGP) historic precipitation dataset version 1.0. It contains observations at 31 thousand stations with 1.87 × 107 data records, among which 4152 time series of precipitation are longer than 100 yr. This dataset plays a critical role in climate research due to its advantages in large data volume and high density of station network, compared to

  13. Development of a global historic monthly mean precipitation dataset

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Su; Xu, Wenhui; Xu, Yan; Li, Qingxiang

    2016-04-01

    Global historic precipitation dataset is the base for climate and water cycle research. There have been several global historic land surface precipitation datasets developed by international data centers such as the US National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), European Climate Assessment & Dataset project team, Met Office, etc., but so far there are no such datasets developed by any research institute in China. In addition, each dataset has its own focus of study region, and the existing global precipitation datasets only contain sparse observational stations over China, which may result in uncertainties in East Asian precipitation studies. In order to take into account comprehensive historic information, users might need to employ two or more datasets. However, the non-uniform data formats, data units, station IDs, and so on add extra difficulties for users to exploit these datasets. For this reason, a complete historic precipitation dataset that takes advantages of various datasets has been developed and produced in the National Meteorological Information Center of China. Precipitation observations from 12 sources are aggregated, and the data formats, data units, and station IDs are unified. Duplicated stations with the same ID are identified, with duplicated observations removed. Consistency test, correlation coefficient test, significance t-test at the 95% confidence level, and significance F-test at the 95% confidence level are conducted first to ensure the data reliability. Only those datasets that satisfy all the above four criteria are integrated to produce the China Meteorological Administration global precipitation (CGP) historic precipitation dataset version 1.0. It contains observations at 31 thousand stations with 1.87 × 107 data records, among which 4152 time series of precipitation are longer than 100 yr. This dataset plays a critical role in climate research due to its advantages in large data volume and high density of station network, compared to

  14. Trends in global CO2 emissions. 2012 Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Olivier, J.G.J.; Peters, J.A.H.W. [PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Den Haag (Netherlands); Janssens-Maenhout, G. [Institute for Environment and Sustainability IES, European Commission' s Joint Research Centre JRC, Ispra (Italy)

    2012-07-15

    This report discusses the results of a trend assessment of global CO2 emissions up to 2011 and updates last year's assessment. This assessment focusses on the changes in annual CO2 emissions from 2010 to 2011, and includes not only fossil fuel combustion on which the BP reports are based, but also incorporates all other relevant CO2 emissions sources including flaring of waste gas during oil production, cement clinker production and other limestone uses, feedstock and other non-energy uses of fuels, and several other small sources. After a short description of the methods used (Chapter 2), we first present a summary of recent CO2 emission trends, by region and by country, and of the underlying trend of fossil fuel use, non-fossil energy and of other CO2 sources (Chapter 3). To provide a broader context of the global trends we also assess the cumulative global CO2 emissions of the last decade, i.e. since 2000, and compare it with scientific literature that analyse global emissions in relation to the target of 2C maximum global warming in the 21st century, which was adopted in the UN climate negotiations (Chapter 4). Compared to last year's report, Annex 1 includes a more detailed and updated discussion of the uncertainty in national and global CO2 emission estimates.

  15. Global spatially explicit CO2 emission metrics for forest bioenergy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cherubini, Francesco; Huijbregts, Mark; Kindermann, Georg; van Zelm, Rosalie; van der Velde, Marijn; Stadler, Konstantin; Strømman, Anders Hammer

    2016-02-01

    Emission metrics aggregate climate impacts of greenhouse gases to common units such as CO2-equivalents (CO2-eq.). Examples include the global warming potential (GWP), the global temperature change potential (GTP) and the absolute sustained emission temperature (aSET). Despite the importance of biomass as a primary energy supplier in existing and future scenarios, emission metrics for CO2 from forest bioenergy are only available on a case-specific basis. Here, we produce global spatially explicit emission metrics for CO2 emissions from forest bioenergy and illustrate their applications to global emissions in 2015 and until 2100 under the RCP8.5 scenario. We obtain global average values of 0.49 ± 0.03 kgCO2-eq. kgCO2-1 (mean ± standard deviation) for GWP, 0.05 ± 0.05 kgCO2-eq. kgCO2-1 for GTP, and 2.14·10-14 ± 0.11·10-14 °C (kg yr-1)-1 for aSET. We explore metric dependencies on temperature, precipitation, biomass turnover times and extraction rates of forest residues. We find relatively high emission metrics with low precipitation, long rotation times and low residue extraction rates. Our results provide a basis for assessing CO2 emissions from forest bioenergy under different indicators and across various spatial and temporal scales.

  16. Global carbon dioxide emissions from inland waters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raymond, Peter A.; Hartmann, Jens; Lauerwald, Ronny; Sobek, Sebastian; McDonald, Cory P.; Hoover, Mark; Butman, David; Striegl, Robert G.; Mayorga, Emilio; Humborg, Christoph; Kortelainen, Pirkko; Durr, Hans H.; Meybeck, Michel; Ciais, Philippe; Guth, Peter

    2013-01-01

    Carbon dioxide (CO2) transfer from inland waters to the atmosphere, known as CO2 evasion, is a component of the global carbon cycle. Global estimates of CO2 evasion have been hampered, however, by the lack of a framework for estimating the inland water surface area and gas transfer velocity and by the absence of a global CO2 database. Here we report regional variations in global inland water surface area, dissolved CO2 and gas transfer velocity. We obtain global CO2 evasion rates of 1.8   petagrams of carbon (Pg C) per year from streams and rivers and 0.32  Pg C yr−1 from lakes and reservoirs, where the upper and lower limits are respectively the 5th and 95th confidence interval percentiles. The resulting global evasion rate of 2.1 Pg C yr−1 is higher than previous estimates owing to a larger stream and river evasion rate. Our analysis predicts global hotspots in stream and river evasion, with about 70 per cent of the flux occurring over just 20 per cent of the land surface. The source of inland water CO2 is still not known with certainty and new studies are needed to research the mechanisms controlling CO2 evasion globally.

  17. Compilation of a global inventory of emissions of nitrous oxide.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bouwman, A.F.

    1995-01-01

    A global inventory with 1°x1° resolution was compiled of emissions of nitrous oxide (N 2 O) to the atmosphere, including emissions from soils under natural vegetation, fertilized agricultural land, grasslands and animal excreta, biomass burning, forest clearing, oceans, fossil fuel and bi

  18. Compilation of a global inventory of emissions of nitrous oxide

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bouwman, A.F.

    1995-01-01

    A global inventory with 1°x1° resolution was compiled of emissions of nitrous oxide (N 2 O) to the atmosphere, including emissions from soils under natural vegetation, fertilized agricultural land, grasslands and animal excreta, biomass burning, forest clearing,

  19. Globalization and pollution: tele-connecting local primary PM2.5 emissions to global consumption

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meng, Jing; Liu, Junfeng; Xu, Yuan; Guan, Dabo; Liu, Zhu; Huang, Ye; Tao, Shu

    2016-11-01

    Globalization pushes production and consumption to geographically diverse locations and generates a variety of sizeable opportunities and challenges. The distribution and associated effects of short-lived primary fine particulate matter (PM2.5), a representative of local pollution, are significantly affected by the consumption through global supply chain. Tele-connection is used here to represent the link between production and consumption activity at large distances. In this study, we develop a global consumption-based primary PM2.5 emission inventory to track primary PM2.5 emissions embodied in the supply chain and evaluate the extent to which local PM2.5 emissions are triggered by international trade. We further adopt consumption-based accounting and identify the global original source that produced the emissions. We find that anthropogenic PM2.5 emissions from industrial sectors accounted for 24 Tg globally in 2007; approximately 30% (7.2 Tg) of these emissions were embodied in export of products principally from Brazil, South Africa, India and China (3.8 Tg) to developed countries. Large differences (up to 10 times) in the embodied emissions intensity between net importers and exporters greatly increased total global PM2.5 emissions. Tele-connecting production and consumption activity provides valuable insights with respect to mitigating long-range transboundary air pollution and prompts concerted efforts aiming at more environmentally conscious globalization.

  20. Globalization and pollution: tele-connecting local primary PM2.5 emissions to global consumption

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meng, Jing; Xu, Yuan; Guan, Dabo; Liu, Zhu; Huang, Ye; Tao, Shu

    2016-01-01

    Globalization pushes production and consumption to geographically diverse locations and generates a variety of sizeable opportunities and challenges. The distribution and associated effects of short-lived primary fine particulate matter (PM2.5), a representative of local pollution, are significantly affected by the consumption through global supply chain. Tele-connection is used here to represent the link between production and consumption activity at large distances. In this study, we develop a global consumption-based primary PM2.5 emission inventory to track primary PM2.5 emissions embodied in the supply chain and evaluate the extent to which local PM2.5 emissions are triggered by international trade. We further adopt consumption-based accounting and identify the global original source that produced the emissions. We find that anthropogenic PM2.5 emissions from industrial sectors accounted for 24 Tg globally in 2007; approximately 30% (7.2 Tg) of these emissions were embodied in export of products principally from Brazil, South Africa, India and China (3.8 Tg) to developed countries. Large differences (up to 10 times) in the embodied emissions intensity between net importers and exporters greatly increased total global PM2.5 emissions. Tele-connecting production and consumption activity provides valuable insights with respect to mitigating long-range transboundary air pollution and prompts concerted efforts aiming at more environmentally conscious globalization. PMID:27956874

  1. Globalization and pollution: tele-connecting local primary PM2.5 emissions to global consumption.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meng, Jing; Liu, Junfeng; Xu, Yuan; Guan, Dabo; Liu, Zhu; Huang, Ye; Tao, Shu

    2016-11-01

    Globalization pushes production and consumption to geographically diverse locations and generates a variety of sizeable opportunities and challenges. The distribution and associated effects of short-lived primary fine particulate matter (PM2.5), a representative of local pollution, are significantly affected by the consumption through global supply chain. Tele-connection is used here to represent the link between production and consumption activity at large distances. In this study, we develop a global consumption-based primary PM2.5 emission inventory to track primary PM2.5 emissions embodied in the supply chain and evaluate the extent to which local PM2.5 emissions are triggered by international trade. We further adopt consumption-based accounting and identify the global original source that produced the emissions. We find that anthropogenic PM2.5 emissions from industrial sectors accounted for 24 Tg globally in 2007; approximately 30% (7.2 Tg) of these emissions were embodied in export of products principally from Brazil, South Africa, India and China (3.8 Tg) to developed countries. Large differences (up to 10 times) in the embodied emissions intensity between net importers and exporters greatly increased total global PM2.5 emissions. Tele-connecting production and consumption activity provides valuable insights with respect to mitigating long-range transboundary air pollution and prompts concerted efforts aiming at more environmentally conscious globalization.

  2. Trends in global nitrous oxide emissions from animal production systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oenema, O.; Wrage, N.; Velthof, G.L.; Groenigen, van J.W.; Dolfing, J.; Kuikman, P.J.

    2005-01-01

    Wastes from animal production systems contribute as much as 30-50% to the global N2O emissions from agriculture, but relatively little attention has been given on improving the accuracy of the estimates and on developing mitigation options. This paper discusses trends and uncertainties in global N2O

  3. Influence of travel behavior on global CO2 emissions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Girod, B.; Vuuren, D.P. van; Vries, B. de

    2013-01-01

    Travel demand is rising steeply and its contribution to global CO2 emissions is increasing. Different studies have shown possible mitigation through technological options, but so far few studies have evaluated the implications of changing travel behavior on global travel demand, energy use and CO2 e

  4. The global distribution of ammonia emissions from seabird colonies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riddick, S. N.; Dragosits, U.; Blackall, T. D.; Daunt, F.; Wanless, S.; Sutton, M. A.

    2012-08-01

    Seabird colonies represent a significant source of atmospheric ammonia (NH3) in remote maritime systems, producing a source of nitrogen that may encourage plant growth, alter terrestrial plant community composition and affect the surrounding marine ecosystem. To investigate seabird NH3 emissions on a global scale, we developed a contemporary seabird database including a total seabird population of 261 million breeding pairs. We used this in conjunction with a bioenergetics model to estimate the mass of nitrogen excreted by all seabirds at each breeding colony. The results combined with the findings of mid-latitude field studies of volatilization rates estimate the global distribution of NH3 emissions from seabird colonies on an annual basis. The largest uncertainty in our emission estimate concerns the potential temperature dependence of NH3 emission. To investigate this we calculated and compared temperature independent emission estimates with a maximum feasible temperature dependent emission, based on the thermodynamic dissociation and solubility equilibria. Using the temperature independent approach, we estimate global NH3 emissions from seabird colonies at 404 Gg NH3 per year. By comparison, since most seabirds are located in relatively cold circumpolar locations, the thermodynamically dependent estimate is 136 Gg NH3 per year. Actual global emissions are expected to be within these bounds, as other factors, such as non-linear interactions with water availability and surface infiltration, moderate the theoretical temperature response. Combining sources of error from temperature (±49%), seabird population estimates (±36%), variation in diet composition (±23%) and non-breeder attendance (±13%), gives a mid estimate with an overall uncertainty range of NH3 emission from seabird colonies of 270 [97-442] Gg NH3 per year. These emissions are environmentally relevant as they primarily occur as "hot-spots" in otherwise pristine environments with low anthropogenic

  5. The Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED3) Global Burned Area Data Set

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giglio, L.; van der Werf, G. R.; Randerson, J. T.; Collatz, G. J.; Kasibhatla, P.; Morton, D. C.; Defries, R. S.

    2008-12-01

    We discuss major enhancements to the burned area component of the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED3) over previous versions (GFED1 and GFED2), which now provides global, monthly burned area estimates at 0.5-degree spatial resolution for the time period 1997-2008. Estimates are produced by calibrating Terra MODIS active fire data with 500-m MODIS burned area maps via geographically weighted regression. Cross-calibration with fire observations from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Visible and Infrared Scanner (VIRS) and the Along-Track Scanning Radiometer (ATSR) allows the data set to be extended further back in time. We then discuss the spatially-explicit uncertainty estimates accompanying our data set, and the use of these estimates within atmospheric and biogeochemical models. We compare our GFED3 burned area estimates with other recent global burned area data sets, including GFED2, L3JRC, and GLOBCARBON. We quantify areas and time periods in which the different products diverge, and conclude with explanations for some of the discrepancies.

  6. Grazing the Commons : Global Carbon Emissions Forever?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Melenberg, B.; Vollebergh, H.R.J.; Dijkgraaf, E.

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents the results from our investigation of the per-capita, long- term relation between carbon dioxide emissions and gross domestic product (GDP) for the world, obtained with the use of a new, exible estimator. Consistent with simple economic growth models, we find that regional, popul

  7. Mapping 1995 global anthropogenic emissions of mercury

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pacyna, Jozef M.; Pacyna, Elisabeth G.; Steenhuisen, Frits; Wilson, Simon

    2003-01-01

    This paper presents maps of anthropogenic Hg emissions worldwide within a 1degrees x 1degrees latitude/longitude grid system in 1995. As such, the paper is designed for modelers simulating the Hg transport within air masses and Hg deposition to aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. Maps of total Hg

  8. Global anthropogenic emissions of particulate matter including black carbon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z. Klimont

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a comprehensive assessment of historical (1990–2010 global anthropogenic particulate matter (PM emissions including the consistent and harmonized calculation of mass-based size distribution (PM1, PM2. 5, PM10, as well as primary carbonaceous aerosols including black carbon (BC and organic carbon (OC. The estimates were developed with the integrated assessment model GAINS, where source- and region-specific technology characteristics are explicitly included. This assessment includes a number of previously unaccounted or often misallocated emission sources, i.e. kerosene lamps, gas flaring, diesel generators, refuse burning; some of them were reported in the past for selected regions or in the context of a particular pollutant or sector but not included as part of a total estimate. Spatially, emissions were calculated for 172 source regions (as well as international shipping, presented for 25 global regions, and allocated to 0.5°  ×  0.5° longitude–latitude grids. No independent estimates of emissions from forest fires and savannah burning are provided and neither windblown dust nor unpaved roads emissions are included. We estimate that global emissions of PM have not changed significantly between 1990 and 2010, showing a strong decoupling from the global increase in energy consumption and, consequently, CO2 emissions, but there are significantly different regional trends, with a particularly strong increase in East Asia and Africa and a strong decline in Europe, North America, and the Pacific region. This in turn resulted in important changes in the spatial pattern of PM burden, e.g. European, North American, and Pacific contributions to global emissions dropped from nearly 30 % in 1990 to well below 15 % in 2010, while Asia's contribution grew from just over 50 % to nearly two-thirds of the global total in 2010. For all PM species considered, Asian sources represented over 60 % of the global

  9. Global anthropogenic emissions of particulate matter including black carbon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klimont, Zbigniew; Kupiainen, Kaarle; Heyes, Chris; Purohit, Pallav; Cofala, Janusz; Rafaj, Peter; Borken-Kleefeld, Jens; Schöpp, Wolfgang

    2017-07-01

    This paper presents a comprehensive assessment of historical (1990-2010) global anthropogenic particulate matter (PM) emissions including the consistent and harmonized calculation of mass-based size distribution (PM1, PM2. 5, PM10), as well as primary carbonaceous aerosols including black carbon (BC) and organic carbon (OC). The estimates were developed with the integrated assessment model GAINS, where source- and region-specific technology characteristics are explicitly included. This assessment includes a number of previously unaccounted or often misallocated emission sources, i.e. kerosene lamps, gas flaring, diesel generators, refuse burning; some of them were reported in the past for selected regions or in the context of a particular pollutant or sector but not included as part of a total estimate. Spatially, emissions were calculated for 172 source regions (as well as international shipping), presented for 25 global regions, and allocated to 0.5° × 0.5° longitude-latitude grids. No independent estimates of emissions from forest fires and savannah burning are provided and neither windblown dust nor unpaved roads emissions are included. We estimate that global emissions of PM have not changed significantly between 1990 and 2010, showing a strong decoupling from the global increase in energy consumption and, consequently, CO2 emissions, but there are significantly different regional trends, with a particularly strong increase in East Asia and Africa and a strong decline in Europe, North America, and the Pacific region. This in turn resulted in important changes in the spatial pattern of PM burden, e.g. European, North American, and Pacific contributions to global emissions dropped from nearly 30 % in 1990 to well below 15 % in 2010, while Asia's contribution grew from just over 50 % to nearly two-thirds of the global total in 2010. For all PM species considered, Asian sources represented over 60 % of the global anthropogenic total, and residential combustion

  10. Global time trends in PAH emissions from motor vehicles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Huizhong; Tao, Shu; Wang, Rong; Wang, Bin; Shen, Guofeng; Li, Wei; Su, Shenshen; Huang, Ye; Wang, Xilong; Liu, Wenxin; Li, Bengang; Sun, Kang

    2011-04-01

    Emission from motor vehicles is the most important source of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in urban areas. Emission factors of individual PAHs for motor vehicles reported in the literature varied 4 to 5 orders of magnitude, leading to high uncertainty in emission inventory. In this study, key factors affecting emission factors of PAHs (EF PAH) for motor vehicles were evaluated quantitatively based on thousands of EF PAH measured in 16 countries for over 50 years. The result was used to develop a global emission inventory of PAHs from motor vehicles. It was found that country and vehicle model year are the most important factors affecting EF PAH, which can be quantified using a monovariate regression model with per capita gross domestic production (purchasing power parity) as a sole independent variable. On average, 29% of variation in log-transformed EF PAH could be explained by the model, which was equivalent to 90% reduction in overall uncertainty on arithmetic scale. The model was used to predict EF PAH and subsequently PAH emissions from motor vehicles for various countries in the world during a period from 1971 to 2030. It was estimated that the global emission reached its peak value of approximate 101 Gg in 1978 and decreased afterwards due to emission control in developed countries. The annual emission picked up again since 1990 owing to accelerated energy consumption in China and other developing countries. With more and more rigid control measures taken in the developing world, global emission of PAHs is currently passing its second peak. It was predicted that the emission would decrease from 77 Gg in 2010 to 42 Gg in 2030.

  11. Global Occurrence and Emission of Rotaviruses to Surface Waters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicholas M. Kiulia

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Group A rotaviruses (RV are the major cause of acute gastroenteritis in infants and young children globally. Waterborne transmission of RV and the presence of RV in water sources are of major public health importance. In this paper, we present the Global Waterborne Pathogen model for RV (GloWPa-Rota model to estimate the global distribution of RV emissions to surface water. To our knowledge, this is the first model to do so. We review the literature to estimate three RV specific variables for the model: incidence, excretion rate and removal during wastewater treatment. We estimate total global RV emissions to be 2 × 1018 viral particles/grid/year, of which 87% is produced by the urban population. Hotspot regions with high RV emissions are urban areas in densely populated parts of the world, such as Bangladesh and Nigeria, while low emissions are found in rural areas in North Russia and the Australian desert. Even for industrialized regions with high population density and without tertiary treatment, such as the UK, substantial emissions are estimated. Modeling exercises like the one presented in this paper provide unique opportunities to further study these emissions to surface water, their sources and scenarios for improved management.

  12. Comparison of global inventories of CO emissions from biomass burning derived from remotely sensed data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Stroppiana

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available We compare five global inventories of monthly CO emissions named VGT, ATSR, MODIS, GFED3 and MOPITT based on remotely sensed active fires and/or burned area products for the year 2003. The objective is to highlight similarities and differences by focusing on the geographical and temporal distribution and on the emissions for three broad land cover classes (forest, savanna/grassland and agriculture. Globally, CO emissions for the year 2003 range between 365 Tg CO (GFED3 and 1422 Tg CO (VGT. Despite the large uncertainty in the total amounts, some common spatial patterns typical of biomass burning can be identified in the boreal forests of Siberia, in agricultural areas of Eastern Europe and Russia and in savanna ecosystems of South America, Africa and Australia. Regionally, the largest difference in terms of total amounts (CV > 100% and seasonality is observed at the northernmost latitudes, especially in North America and Siberia where VGT appears to overestimate the area affected by fires. On the contrary, Africa shows the best agreement both in terms of total annual amounts (CV = 31% and of seasonality despite some overestimation of emissions from forest and agriculture observed in the MODIS inventory. In Africa VGT provides the most reliable seasonality. Looking at the broad land cover types, the range of contribution to the global emissions of CO is 64–74%, 23–32% and 3–4% for forest, savanna/grassland and agriculture, respectively. These results suggest that there is still large uncertainty in global estimates of emissions and it increases if the comparison is carried by out taking into account the temporal (month and spatial (0.5° × 0.5° cell dimensions. Besides the area affected by fires, also vegetation characteristics and conditions at the time of burning should also be accurately parameterized since they can greatly influence the global estimates of CO emissions.

  13. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Global Monthly Leaky Bucket Soil Moisture Analysis

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Monthly global soil moisture, runoff, and evaporation data sets produced by the Leaky Bucket model at 0.5? ? 0.5? resolution for the period from 1948 to the present....

  14. Monthly Summaries of the Global Historical Climatology Network - Daily (GHCN-D)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Monthly Summaries of Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN)-Daily is a dataset derived from GHCN-Daily. The data are produced by computing simple averages or...

  15. Dynamic analysis of sulfur dioxide monthly emissions in United States power plants

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Tae-Kyung

    The Clean Air Act Amendments (CAAA) of 1990 marked a moving away from command-and-control air quality regulations towards a market-based approach, whereby polluters are assigned annual emission allowances, and are free to select the minimum-cost approach that will keep their actual annual emissions within this allowance limit. Within this context, the objectives of this research are to better understand (1) the temporal patterns of SO 2 emissions from power plants, and (2) the factors affecting fuel choice and SO2 emissions. Large power plant-related datasets from various sources are collected, processed, and combined for empirical analyses, to explain monthly fuel shipments, fuel consumptions, sulfur shipments, gross and net SO 2 emissions, and fuel choices. Because of the interdependency of these various sulfur dioxide, simultaneous equations estimation techniques are used. The empirical findings are as follows. First, forecasts of electricity demand and fuel prices are the main determinants of the amounts and types of fuel shipments. The relationship between fuel shipments and forecasted fuel needs is very strong for the current month, and gradually weakens over future months, due to forecasting difficulties and the costs of fuel inventories. Second, net SO2 emissions increase with allowances, although not proportionately, because of the likely effects of allowance banking and trading. Third, each plant reduces SO2 emissions gradually over time, to account for the future more stringent Phase II emissions constraints. Fourth, plants emit less in winter, possibly because higher electricity leads to reduced unit SO2 emission abatement costs. Finally, plants with an FGD usually consume more high-sulfur fuels due to their potential abatement capability. An integrated analysis of the effects of changing emission allowances and installing FGD is conducted through a simulation. Reducing allowances by 1% leads to an emissions reduction of 0.15% at the plant level

  16. Act locally, trade globally. Emissions trading for climate policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    none

    2005-07-01

    Climate policy raises a number of challenges for the energy sector, the most significant being the transition from a high to a low-CO2 energy path in a few decades. Emissions trading has become the instrument of choice to help manage the cost of this transition, whether used at international or at domestic level. Act Locally, Trade Globally, offers an overview of existing trading systems, their mechanisms, and looks into the future of the instrument for limiting greenhouse gas emissions. Are current markets likely to be as efficient as the theory predicts? What is, if any, the role of governments in these markets? Can domestic emissions trading systems be broadened to activities other than large stationary energy uses? Can international emissions trading accommodate potentially diverse types of emissions targets and widely different energy realities across countries? Are there hurdles to linking emissions trading systems based on various design features? Can emissions trading carry the entire burden of climate policy, or will other policy instruments remain necessary? In answering these questions, Act Locally, Trade Globally seeks to provide a complete picture of the future role of emissions trading in climate policy and the energy sector.

  17. Global terrestrial isoprene emission models: sensitivity to variability in climate and vegetation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Arneth

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Due to its effects on the atmospheric lifetime of methane, the burdens of tropospheric ozone and growth of secondary organic aerosol, isoprene is central among the biogenic compounds that need to be taken into account for assessment of anthropogenic air pollution-climate change interactions. Lack of process-understanding regarding leaf isoprene production as well as of suitable observations to constrain and evaluate regional or global simulation results add large uncertainties to past, present and future emissions estimates. Focusing on contemporary climate conditions, we compare three global isoprene models that differ in their representation of vegetation and isoprene emission algorithm. We specifically aim to investigate the between- and within model variation that is introduced by varying some of the models' main features, and to determine which spatial and/or temporal features are robust between models and different experimental set-ups. In their individual standard configurations, the models broadly agree with respect to the chief isoprene sources and emission seasonality, with maximum monthly emission rates around 20–25 Tg C, when averaged by 30-degree latitudinal bands. They also indicate relatively small (approximately 5 to 10 % around the mean interannual variability of total global emissions. The models are sensitive to changes in one or more of their main model components and drivers (e.g., underlying vegetation fields, climate input which can yield increases or decreases in total annual emissions of cumulatively by more than 30 %. Varying drivers also strongly alters the seasonal emission pattern. The variable response needs to be interpreted in view of the vegetation emission capacities, as well as diverging absolute and regional distribution of light, radiation and temperature, but the direction of the simulated emission changes was not as uniform as anticipated. Our results highlight the need for modellers to evaluate their

  18. Projections of global emissions of fluorinated greenhouse gases in 2050

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gschrey, Barbara; Schwarz, Winfried [Oeko-Recherche Buero fuer Umweltforschung und -beratung GmbH, Frankfurt/Main (Germany)

    2009-11-15

    Emissions of fluorinated greenhouse gases are currently covered under the Montreal Protocol, which focuses on ozone-depleting substances such as CFCs (chlorofluorocarbons) and HCFCs (hydrochlorofluorocarbons), and under the Kyoto Protocol, which controls emissions of HFCs (hydrofluorocarbons), PFCs (perfluorocarbons) and SF{sub 6} (sulfur hexafluoride). This study bridges the gap between political regimes and their reporting systems by giving an overview of banks and emissions of all fluorinated gases in 2005, and projections of banks and emissions of fluorinated gases in 2050. The Montreal Protocol and its amendments will eventually result in the full phase out of CFCs and HCFCs. Developed countries have already completed the phase out of CFCs and will reach full phase out of HCFCs by 2020. Developing countries, in contrast, will phase out CFCs by 2010 and HCFCs by 2030. Although climate-friendly technology is available for most applications, the risk occurs that substitutes for ozone-depleting substances rely on HFCs, which cause global warming. This study determines global emissions of HFCs, PFCs and SF{sub 6} (Kyoto F-gases) in 2050 in a ''business-as-usual'' scenario. The global population is expected to increase to ca. 8.7 billion people, and high economic growth of 3.5% per year is assumed. Emissions in 2050 are quantified for each sector of application as well as for developed and developing countries based on growth rates of each sector. In 2050, total global emissions of fluorinated greenhouse gases are projected to amount to 4 GT CO{sub 2} eq. which equals ca. 5.9% of the total greenhouse gas emissions at this time. Compared to a relatively small share of F-gas emissions ranging around 1.3% of total greenhouse gas emissions in 2004, this percentage reflects an enormous increase. Relative to projected direct CO{sub 2} emissions alone, the 2050 F-gas emissions will even account for ca. 7.9%. In case of CO{sub 2} mitigation, this share

  19. Global, regional and local health impacts of civil aviation emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yim, Steve H. L.; Lee, Gideon L.; Lee, In Hwan; Allroggen, Florian; Ashok, Akshay; Caiazzo, Fabio; Eastham, Sebastian D.; Malina, Robert; Barrett, Steven R. H.

    2015-03-01

    Aviation emissions impact surface air quality at multiple scales—from near-airport pollution peaks associated with airport landing and take off (LTO) emissions, to intercontinental pollution attributable to aircraft cruise emissions. Previous studies have quantified aviation’s air quality impacts around a specific airport, in a specific region, or at the global scale. However, no study has assessed the air quality and human health impacts of aviation, capturing effects on all aforementioned scales. This study uses a multi-scale modeling approach to quantify and monetize the air quality impact of civil aviation emissions, approximating effects of aircraft plume dynamics-related local dispersion (˜1 km), near-airport dispersion (˜10 km), regional (˜1000 km) and global (˜10 000 km) scale chemistry and transport. We use concentration-response functions to estimate premature deaths due to population exposure to aviation-attributable PM2.5 and ozone, finding that aviation emissions cause ˜16 000 (90% CI: 8300-24 000) premature deaths per year. Of these, LTO emissions contribute a quarter. Our estimate shows that premature deaths due to long-term exposure to aviation-attributable PM2.5 and O3 lead to costs of ˜21 bn per year. We compare these costs to other societal costs of aviation and find that they are on the same order of magnitude as global aviation-attributable climate costs, and one order of magnitude larger than aviation-attributable accident and noise costs.

  20. Emissions and climate forcing from global and Arctic fishing vessels

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKuin, B.; Campbell, J. E.

    2016-12-01

    Fishing vessels were recently found to be the largest source of black carbon ship emissions in the Arctic, suggesting that the fishing sector should be a focus for future studies. Here we developed a global and Arctic emissions inventory for fishing vessel emissions of short-lived and long-lived climate forcers based on data from a wide range of vessel sizes, fuel sulfur contents, engine types, and operational characteristics. We found that previous work generally underestimated emissions of short-lived climate forcers due to a failure to account for small fishing vessels as well as variability in emission factors. In particular, global black carbon emissions were underestimated by an order of magnitude. Furthermore, our order of magnitude estimate of the net climate effect from these fishing vessel emissions suggests that short-lived climate forcing may be particularly important in regions where fuel has a low sulfur content. These results have implications for proposed maritime policies and provide a foundation for future climate simulations to forecast climate change impacts in the Arctic.

  1. Timing of carbon emissions from global forest clearance

    Science.gov (United States)

    J. Mason Earles; Sonia Yeh; Kenneth E. Skog

    2012-01-01

    Land-use change, primarily from conventional agricultural expansion and deforestation, contributes to approximately 17% of global greenhouse-gas emissions1. The fate of cleared wood and subsequent carbon storage as wood products, however, has not been consistently estimated, and is largely ignored or oversimplified by most models estimating...

  2. Global and Regional Drivers of Accelerating CO₂ Emissions

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Michael R. Raupach; Gregg Marland; Philippe Ciais; Corinne Le Quéré; Josep G. Canadell; Gernot Klepper; Christopher B. Field

    2007-01-01

    CO₂ emissions from fossil-fuel burning and industrial processes have been accelerating at a global scale, with their growth rate increasing from 1.1% y⁻¹ for 1990-1999 to >3% y⁻¹ for 2000-2004...

  3. Unconventional Heavy Oil Growth and Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nduagu, Experience I; Gates, Ian D

    2015-07-21

    Enormous global reserves of unconventional heavy oil make it a significant resource for economic growth and energy security; however, its extraction faces many challenges especially on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, water consumption, and recently, social acceptability. Here, we question whether it makes sense to extract and use unconventional heavy oil in spite of these externalities. We place unconventional oils (oil sands and oil shale) alongside shale gas, coal, lignite, wood and conventional oil and gas, and compare their energy intensities and life cycle GHG emissions. Our results reveal that oil shale is the most energy intensive fuel among upgraded primary fossil fuel options followed by in situ-produced bitumen from oil sands. Lignite is the most GHG intensive primary fuel followed by oil shale. Based on future world energy demand projections, we estimate that if growth of unconventional heavy oil production continues unabated, the incremental GHG emissions that results from replacing conventional oil with heavy oil would amount to 4-21 Gt-CO2eq GtCO2eq over four decades (2010 by 2050). However, prevailing socio-economic, regional and global energy politics, environmental and technological challenges may limit growth of heavy oil production and thus its GHG emissions contributions to global fossil fuel emissions may be smaller.

  4. Global negative emissions capacity of ocean macronutrient fertilization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harrison, Daniel P.

    2017-03-01

    In order to meet the goal of limiting global average temperature increase to less than 2 °C, it is increasingly apparent that negative emissions technologies of up to 10 Pg C yr‑1 will be needed before the end of the century. Recent research indicates that fertilization of the ocean with the macronutrients nitrogen and phosphorus where they limit primary production, may have sequestration advantages over fertilizing iron limited regions. Utilizing global datasets of oceanographic field measurements, and output from a high resolution global circulation model, the current study provides the first comprehensive assessment of the global potential for carbon sequestration from ocean macronutrient fertilization (OMF). Sufficient excess phosphate exists outside the iron limited surface ocean to support once-off sequestration of up to 3.6 Pg C by fertilization with nitrogen. Ongoing maximum capacity of nitrogen only fertilization is estimated at 0.7 ± 0.4 Pg C yr‑1. Sequestration capacity is expected to decrease from the upper toward the lower bound over time under continued intense fertilization. If N and P were used in combination the capacity is ultimately limited by societies willingness to utilize phosphate resources. Doubling current phosphate production would allow an additional 0.9 Pg C yr‑1 and consume 0.07% yr‑1 of known global resources. Therefore offsetting up to around 15% (1.5 Pg C yr‑1) of annual global CO2 emissions is assessed as being technically plausible. Environmental risks which to date have received little quantitative evaluation, could also limit the scale of implementation. These results reinforce the need to consider a multi-faceted approach to greenhouse gasses, including a reduction in emissions coupled with further research into negative emissions technologies.

  5. 2002 Monthly Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Mexico at a 10x10k Spatial Resolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mendoza, D. L.; Gurney, K. R.; Geethakumar, S.; Zhou, Y.; Sahni, N.

    2009-12-01

    The contribution of fossil fuel CO2 emissions to the total measured amount of CO2 in the Earth’s atmosphere remains an important component of carbon cycle science, particularly as efforts to understand the net exchange of carbon at the surface move to smaller scales. In order to reduce the uncertainty of this flux, researchers led by Purdue University have built a high-resolution fossil fuel CO2 flux inventory for the United States, called “Vulcan”. The Vulcan inventory quantifies emissions for the United States at 10km resolution every hour for the year 2002 and can be seen as a key component of a national assessment and verification system for greenhouse gas emissions and emissions mitigation. As part of the North American Carbon Project, the 2002 carbon dioxide emissions from Mexico are presented at the monthly temporal and municipality spatial scale. Mexico is of particular importance because of the scientific integration under the North American Carbon Program. Furthermore, Mexico has seen a notable growth in its population as well as migration toward urban centers and increasing energy requirements due in part to industrial intensification. The native resolution of the emissions is geolocated (lat/lon) for point sources, such as power plants, airports, and large industry. The emissions are estimated at the municipality level for residential and commercial sources, and allocated to roads for the mobile transport sector. Data sources include the National Emissions Inventory (NEI), Commission for Environmental Cooperation (CEC), and Carbon Monitoring for Action (CARMA). CO2 emissions are calculated from the 1999 NEI data by converting CO emissions using sector and process-dependent emission factors, and is scaled up to 2002 using statistics obtained from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center CDIAC. CEC and CARMA data, which encompass power plant emissions, are already in units of CO2. Emissions are regridded to 10x10k and 0.1x0.1 deg grids to

  6. Decadal trends in global CO emissions as seen by MOPITT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Yin

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Negative trends of carbon monoxide (CO concentrations are observed in the recent decade by both surface measurements and satellite retrievals over many regions, but they are not well explained by current emission inventories. Here, we attribute the observed CO concentration decline with an atmospheric inversion that simultaneously optimizes the two main CO sources (surface emissions and atmospheric hydrocarbon oxidations and the main CO sink (atmospheric hydroxyl radical OH oxidation by assimilating observations of CO and other chemically related tracers. Satellite CO column retrievals from Measurements of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT, version 6, and surface in-situ measurements of methane and methyl-chloroform mole fractions are assimilated jointly for the period of 2002–2011. Compared to the prior simulation, the optimized CO concentrations show better agreement with independent surface in-situ measurements in terms of both distributions and trends. At the global scale, the atmospheric inversion primarily interprets the CO concentration decline as a decrease in the CO emissions, and finds noticeable trends neither in the chemical oxidation sources of CO, nor in the OH concentrations that regulate CO sinks. The latitudinal comparison of the model state with independent formaldehyde (CH2O columns retrieved from the Ozone Measurement Instrument (OMI confirms the absence of large-scale trends in the atmospheric source of CO. The global CO emission decreased by 17% during the decade, more than twice the negative trend estimated by emission inventories. The spatial distribution of the inferred decrease of CO emissions indicates contributions from both a decrease in fossil- and bio-fuel emissions over Europe, the USA and Asia, and from a decrease in biomass burning emissions in South America, Indonesia, Australia and Boreal regions. An emission decrease of 2% yr−1 is inferred in China, one of the main emitting regions, in contradiction

  7. Development of a forecast model for global air traffic emissions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schaefer, Martin

    2012-07-01

    The thesis describes the methodology and results of a simulation model that quantifies fuel consumption and emissions of civil air traffic. Besides covering historical emissions, the model aims at forecasting emissions in the medium-term future. For this purpose, simulation models of aircraft and engine types are used in combination with a database of global flight movements and assumptions about traffic growth, fleet rollover and operational aspects. Results from an application of the model include emissions of scheduled air traffic for the years 2000 to 2010 as well as forecasted emissions until the year 2030. In a baseline scenario of the forecast, input assumptions (e.g. traffic growth rates) are in line with predictions by the aircraft industry. Considering the effects of advanced technologies of the short-term and medium-term future, the forecast focusses on fuel consumption and emissions of nitric oxides. Calculations for historical air traffic additionally cover emissions of carbon monoxide, unburned hydrocarbons and soot. Results are validated against reference data including studies by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) and simulation results from international research projects. (orig.)

  8. Global and regional emission estimates for HCFC-22

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Saikawa

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available HCFC-22 (CHClF2, chlorodifluoromethane is an ozone-depleting substance (ODS as well as a significant greenhouse gas (GHG. HCFC-22 has been used widely as a refrigerant fluid in cooling and air-conditioning equipment since the 1960s, and it has also served as a traditional substitute for some chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs controlled under the Montreal Protocol. A low frequency record on tropospheric HCFC-22 since the late 1970s is available from measurements of the Southern Hemisphere Cape Grim Air Archive (CGAA and a few Northern Hemisphere air samples (mostly from Trinidad Head using the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE instrumentation and calibrations. Since the 1990s high-frequency, high-precision, in situ HCFC-22 measurements have been collected at these AGAGE stations. Since 1992, the Global Monitoring Division of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Earth System Research Laboratory (NOAA/ESRL has also collected flasks on a weekly basis from remote sites across the globe and analyzed them for a suite of halocarbons including HCFC-22. Additionally, since 2006 flasks have been collected approximately daily at a number of tower sites across the US and analyzed for halocarbons and other gases at NOAA. All results show an increase in the atmospheric mole fractions of HCFC-22, and recent data show a growth rate of approximately 4% per year, resulting in an increase in the background atmospheric mole fraction by a factor of 1.7 from 1995 to 2009. Using data on HCFC-22 consumption submitted to the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP, as well as existing bottom-up emission estimates, we first create globally-gridded a priori HCFC-22 emissions over the 15 yr since 1995. We then use the three-dimensional chemical transport model, Model for Ozone and Related Chemical Tracers version 4 (MOZART v4, and a Bayesian inverse method to estimate global as well as regional annual emissions. Our inversion indicates

  9. Contrasting regional versus global radiative forcing by megacity pollution emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dang, H.; Unger, N.

    2015-10-01

    We assess the regional and global integrated radiative forcing on 20- and 100-year time horizons caused by a one-year pulse of present day pollution emissions from 10 megacity areas: Los Angeles, Mexico City, New York City, Sao Paulo, Lagos, Cairo, New Delhi, Beijing, Shanghai and Manila. The assessment includes well-mixed greenhouse gases: carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrous oxide (N2O), methane (CH4); and short-lived climate forcers: tropospheric ozone (O3) and fine mode aerosol particles (sulfate, nitrate, black carbon, primary and secondary organic aerosol). All megacities contribute net global warming on both time horizons. Most of the 10 megacity areas exert a net negative effect on their own regional radiation budget that is 10-100 times larger in magnitude than their global radiative effects. Of the cities examined, Beijing, New Delhi, Shanghai and New York contribute most to global warming with values ranging from +0.03 to 0.05 Wm-2yr on short timescales and +0.07-0.10 Wm-2yr on long timescales. Regional net 20-year radiative effects are largest for Mexico City (-0.84 Wm-2yr) and Beijing (-0.78 Wm-2yr). Megacity reduction of non-CH4 O3 precursors to improve air quality offers zero co-benefits to global climate. Megacity reduction of aerosols to improve air quality offers co-benefits to the regional radiative budget but minimal or no co-benefits to global climate with the exception of black carbon reductions in a few cities, especially Beijing and New Delhi. Results suggest that air pollution and global climate change mitigation can be treated as separate environmental issues in policy at the megacity level with the exception of CH4 action. Individual megacity reduction of CO2 and CH4 emissions can mitigate global warming and therefore offers climate safety improvements to the entire planet.

  10. Global volcanic emissions: budgets, plume chemistry and impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mather, T. A.

    2012-12-01

    Over the past few decades our understanding of global volcanic degassing budgets, plume chemistry and the impacts of volcanic emissions on our atmosphere and environment has been revolutionized. Global volcanic emissions budgets are needed if we are to make effective use of regional and global atmospheric models in order to understand the consequences of volcanic degassing on global environmental evolution. Traditionally volcanic SO2 budgets have been the best constrained but recent efforts have seen improvements in the quantification of the budgets of other environmentally important chemical species such as CO2, the halogens (including Br and I) and trace metals (including measurements relevant to trace metal atmospheric lifetimes and bioavailability). Recent measurements of reactive trace gas species in volcanic plumes have offered intriguing hints at the chemistry occurring in the hot environment at volcanic vents and during electrical discharges in ash-rich volcanic plumes. These reactive trace species have important consequences for gas plume chemistry and impacts, for example, in terms of the global fixed nitrogen budget, volcanically induced ozone destruction and particle fluxes to the atmosphere. Volcanically initiated atmospheric chemistry was likely to have been particularly important before biological (and latterly anthropogenic) processes started to dominate many geochemical cycles, with important consequences in terms of the evolution of the nitrogen cycle and the role of particles in modulating the Earth's climate. There are still many challenges and open questions to be addressed in this fascinating area of science.

  11. Global simulation of UV atmospheric emissions on Mars

    Science.gov (United States)

    González-Galindo, Francisco; Ángel López-Valverde, Miguel; Forget, Francois; Montmessin, Franck; Stiepen, Arnaud

    2016-04-01

    Mars UV atmospheric emissions such as the CO2+ UV doublet, the CO Cameron bands (both in the dayside) and the NO bands (in the nightside) are systematically observed by SPICAM on board Mars Express and IUVS on board MAVEN. The study of these atmospheric emissions allows the determination of the temperature and density in the Martian upper atmosphere, and helps to constrain the thermospheric circulation. While different models have been developed to study these atmospheric emissions, most of them are one dimensional and make a number of assumptions concerning the underlying neutral atmosphere and ionosphere. Within the H2020 project UPWARDS we aim at including models of these atmospheric emissions into a state-of-the-art Global Climate Model for the Martian atmosphere, the LMD-MGCM. This will allow for a self-consistent description of these atmospheric emissions and for the characterizion of their different variability sources. Comparisons with observations will allow to retrieve information about the temperature and density in the Martian upper atmosphere. Here we will present the first results concerning the simulation of these UV emissions and the first comparisons with observations. Acknowledgemnt: This work is supported by the European Union's Horizon 2020 Programme under grant agreement UPWARDS-633127

  12. Simulating the global transport of nitrogen oxides emissions from aircraft

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sausen, R.; Köhler, I.

    1994-05-01

    With the atmosphere general circulation model ECHAM the passive transport of NOx emitted from global subsonic air traffic and the NOx concentration change due to these emissions are investigated. The source of NOx is prescribed according to an aircraft emission data base. The sink of NOx is parameterized as an exponential decay process with globally constant lifetime. Simulations in perpetual January and July modes are performed. Both the resulting mean and the standard deviation of the NOx mass mixing ratio are analysed. In January horizontal dispersion is more pronounced and vertical mixing is smaller than in July. In both cases the resulting quasi-stationary fields of the mass mixing ratio display a pronounced zonal asymmetry. The variability accounts up to 30% of the mean field.

  13. Global and regional emissions estimates for N2O

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saikawa, E.; Prinn, R. G.; Dlugokencky, E.; Ishijima, K.; Dutton, G. S.; Hall, B. D.; Langenfelds, R.; Tohjima, Y.; Machida, T.; Manizza, M.; Rigby, M.; O'Doherty, S.; Patra, P. K.; Harth, C. M.; Weiss, R. F.; Krummel, P. B.; van der Schoot, M.; Fraser, P. J.; Steele, L. P.; Aoki, S.; Nakazawa, T.; Elkins, J. W.

    2014-05-01

    We present a comprehensive estimate of nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions using observations and models from 1995 to 2008. High-frequency records of tropospheric N2O are available from measurements at Cape Grim, Tasmania; Cape Matatula, American Samoa; Ragged Point, Barbados; Mace Head, Ireland; and at Trinidad Head, California using the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE) instrumentation and calibrations. The Global Monitoring Division of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Earth System Research Laboratory (NOAA/ESRL) has also collected discrete air samples in flasks and in situ measurements from remote sites across the globe and analyzed them for a suite of species including N2O. In addition to these major networks, we include in situ and aircraft measurements from the National Institute of Environmental Studies (NIES) and flask measurements from the Tohoku University and Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) networks. All measurements show increasing atmospheric mole fractions of N2O, with a varying growth rate of 0.1-0.7% per year, resulting in a 7.4% increase in the background atmospheric mole fraction between 1979 and 2011. Using existing emission inventories as well as bottom-up process modeling results, we first create globally gridded a priori N2O emissions over the 37 years since 1975. We then use the three-dimensional chemical transport model, Model for Ozone and Related Chemical Tracers version 4 (MOZART v4), and a Bayesian inverse method to estimate global as well as regional annual emissions for five source sectors from 13 regions in the world. This is the first time that all of these measurements from multiple networks have been combined to determine emissions. Our inversion indicates that global and regional N2O emissions have an increasing trend between 1995 and 2008. Despite large uncertainties, a significant increase is seen from the Asian agricultural sector in recent years, most likely

  14. Global and regional emissions estimates for N2O

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Saikawa

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available We present a comprehensive estimate of nitrous oxide ( N2O emissions using observations and models from 1995 to 2008. High-frequency records of tropospheric N2O are available from measurements at Cape Grim, Tasmania; Cape Matatula, American Samoa; Ragged Point, Barbados; Mace Head, Ireland; and at Trinidad Head, California using the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE instrumentation and calibrations. The Global Monitoring Division of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Earth System Research Laboratory (NOAA/ESRL has also discrete air samples collected in flasks and in situ measurements from remote sites across the globe and analyzed them for a suite of species including N2O. In addition to these major networks, we include in situ and aircraft measurements from the National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES and flask measurements from the Tohoku University and Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO networks. All measurements show increasing atmospheric mole fractions of N2O, with a varying growth rate of 0.1–0.7 % yr-1, resulting in a 7.4% increase in the background atmospheric mole fraction between 1979 and 2011. Using existing emission inventories as well as bottom-up process modeling results, we first create globally-gridded a priori N2O emissions over the 37 yr since 1975. We then use the three-dimensional chemical transport model, Model for Ozone and Related Chemical Tracers version 4 (MOZART v4, and a Bayesian inverse method to estimate global as well as regional annual emissions for five source sectors from 13 regions in the world. This is the first time that all of these measurements from multiple networks have been combined to determine emissions. Our inversion indicates that global and regional N2O emissions have an increasing trend between 1995 and 2008. Despite large uncertainties, a significant increase is seen from the Asian agricultural sector in the recent

  15. Monthly average daily global solar radiation in P. D. R. Yemen

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gadhi, S.M.B.; Megdad, R.S.; Albakri, S.A.A. (Aden Univ. (Yemen). Dept. of Mechanical Engineering)

    1991-01-01

    In this paper a study has been made to estimate average global radiation using hours of bright sunshine and measured solar radiation data available for six locations in P.D.R. Yemen. For Aden, data were obtained from Aden Airport. For other locations in P.D.R. Yemen data were obtained from Agricultural Research Center's meteorological sections. Linear regression analysis of the monthly average global radiation and the sunshine duration data of six locations has been performed using the least squares technique. All the above mentioned data have been used in Angstrom's correlation to find the monthly average daily global solar radiation. Results obtained are useful for any solar energy system application in P.D.R. Yemen. (author).

  16. The improved Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED) version 3: contribution of savanna, forest, deforestation, and peat fires to the global fire emissions budget

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Werf, Guido; Randerson, Jim; Giglio, Louis; Collatz, Jim; Kasibhatla, Prasad; Morton, Doug; Defries, Ruth

    2010-05-01

    Global fire activity is an important contributor to the atmospheric trace gas and aerosol burdens. New burned area datasets and top-down constraints from atmospheric concentration measurements of pyrogenic gases have decreased the large uncertainty in fire emissions estimates, but little is known about the contribution of deforestation, agricultural waste, peat, forest, and savanna fires to total global fire emissions. Here we used a revised version of the CASA biogeochemical model and improved satellite-derived estimates of area burned, fire activity, and plant productivity to calculate fire emissions for the 1997-2008 period on a 0.5°×0.5° spatial resolution with a monthly time step. For November 2000 onwards, estimates were based on burned area, active fire detections, and plant productivity from the MODIS sensor. For this time period we also calculated the breakdown of emissions into different sources. We used TRMM-VIRS and ATSR data to extend our fire time series back in time, combined with AVHRR-derived plant productivity in the pre-MODIS era. Average global fire carbon emissions were 1.9 Pg C / year with significant interannual variability over 1997-2001 (2.6 Pg C / year in 1998 and 1.5 Pg C / year in 2001) while emissions over 2002-2007 were relatively constant (varying between 1.9 and 2.0 Pg C / year), before declining in 2008 (1.6 Pg C / year). Over 2002-2007, interannual variability was still large on regional scales but on a global scale high fire years in some regions were balanced by low fire years in other regions. In the MODIS era (2001 onwards), most carbon losses were the result of fires in (wooded) savannas (68%) with lower contributions from deforestation (13%), forest (12%), agricultural waste (4%), and tropical peat fires (3%). On regional scales, these contributions vary to a large degree, and the contribution of peat fires would increase when including the 1997/1998 El Niño period with record-high fire emissions in Equatorial Asia. For

  17. Time-Series Modeling and Prediction of Global Monthly Absolute Temperature for Environmental Decision Making

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YE Liming; YANG Guixia; Eric VAN RANST; TANG Huajun

    2013-01-01

    A generalized,structural,time series modeling framework was developed to analyze the monthly records of absolute surface temperature,one of the most important environmental parameters,using a deterministicstochastic combined (DSC) approach.Although the development of the framework was based on the characterization of the variation patterns of a global dataset,the methodology could be applied to any monthly absolute temperature record.Deterministic processes were used to characterize the variation patterns of the global trend and the cyclic oscillations of the temperature signal,involving polynomial functions and the Fourier method,respectively,while stochastic processes were employed to account for any remaining patterns in the temperature signal,involving seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) models.A prediction of the monthly global surface temperature during the second decade of the 21st century using the DSC model shows that the global temperature will likely continue to rise at twice the average rate of the past 150 years.The evaluation of prediction accuracy shows that DSC models perform systematically well against selected models of other authors,suggesting that DSC models,when coupled with other ecoenvironmental models,can be used as a supplemental tool for short-term (~10-year) environmental planning and decision making.

  18. COMPILATION OF REGIONAL TO GLOBAL INVENTORIES OF ANTHROPOGENIC EMISSIONS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    BENKOVITZ,C.M.

    2002-11-01

    The mathematical modeling of the transport and transformation of trace species in the atmosphere is one of the scientific tools currently used to assess atmospheric chemistry, air quality, and climatic conditions. From the scientific but also from the management perspectives accurate inventories of emissions of the trace species at the appropriate spatial, temporal, and species resolution are required. There are two general methodologies used to estimate regional to global emissions: bottom-up and top-down (also known as inverse modeling). Bottom-up methodologies to estimate industrial emissions are based on activity data, emission factors (amount of emissions per unit activity), and for some inventories additional parameters (such as sulfur content of fuels). Generally these emissions estimates must be given finer sectoral, spatial (usually gridded), temporal, and for some inventories species resolution. Temporal and spatial resolution are obtained via the use of surrogate information, such as population, land use, traffic counts, etc. which already exists in or can directly be converted to gridded form. Speciation factors have been and are being developed to speciate inventories of NO{sub x}, particulate matter, and hydrocarbons. Top-down (inverse modeling) methodologies directly invert air quality measurements in terms of poorly known but critical parameters to constrain the emissions needed to explain these measurements; values of these parameters are usually computed using atmospheric transport models. Currently there are several strong limitations of inverse modeling, but the continued evolution of top-down estimates will be facilitated by the development of denser monitoring networks and by the massive amounts of data from satellite observations.

  19. An analysis of monthly mean wind stress over the global ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Y.-J.; Lee, S.-W.

    1983-01-01

    The annual mean and four monthly means are calculated for the global ocean wind stress fields. The main data base was gathered by observations along continental coasts and on shipping routes, expressed in terms of the monthly mean speed, eight direction categories, and the rms of the speeds. The stress fields were estimated by assuming a Gaussian distribution for the speed frequency distribution histogram. The resulting data set is concluded useful for general circulation modeling, although the 5 deg resolution could lead to an underestimation of the curl.

  20. Building Trust in Emissions Reporting. Global Trends in Emissions Trading Schemes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kruijd, J.; Walrecht, A.; Laseur, J.; Schoolderman, H.; Gledhill, R.

    2007-02-15

    This report highlights the key characteristics of the world's main emission trading schemes, presents a new vision for compliance in emissions trading and calls for global action to develop this. Climate change is now at the top of the political and business agenda. Al Gore's 'An Inconvenient Truth', the Stern Review and the now almost daily press coverage of climate change science and impacts have engaged many of the global leaders in government and in business. Emissions trading is increasingly seen as a central plank in the response to climate change. But market mechanisms like this depend on trust and confidence. Any widespread or systemic failure, as a result of deficient monitoring and reporting, flawed compliance processes or fraud, could undermine confidence in markets and regulation and jeopardise the crucial policy goals that they are designed to address. Key to this trust are the three central criteria of transparency, accountability and integrity. The PricewaterhouseCoopers report looks at how the patchwork of trading schemes that are emerging around the globe stacks up against these criteria. Despite good intentions across the board, the general picture is one of new and immature markets, inconsistent and complex compliance frameworks and risk. PricewaterhouseCoopers make the case for urgent and coordinated action to develop a framework of generally accepted principles and practice that will underpin trust and efficiency in these new markets - in effect, a new Global Emissions Compliance Language.

  1. Role of anthropogenic direct heat emissions in global warming

    CERN Document Server

    Wang, Fei; Zhao, Guangju; Gao, Peng; Li, Pengfei

    2015-01-01

    The anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) are widely realized as the predominant drivers of global warming, but the huge and increasing anthropogenic direct heat emissions (AHE) has not gained enough attention in terms of its role in the warming of the climate system. Based on two reasonable assumptions of (1) AHE eventually transfers to the Earth energy system and (2) the net warming is only driven by the net radioactive forcing (RF) from either GHG or other causes, we analyzed the role of AHE in global warming. The mean annual total AHE of the four main sources including energy consumption, residual heat of electricity generation, biomass decomposition by land use and cover change (LUCC) and food consumption was estimated to be 4.41*10^20 J in 1970-2010, accounting for 6.23% of the net annual heat increase of the Earth reported by IPCC AR5 for the period. The mean annual radioactive forcing (RF) by AHE was up to 29.94 mW m^(-2) globally in 1981-2010, less than the annual net increase of total GH...

  2. Global fire emissions estimates during 1997–2016

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. R. van der Werf

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Climate, land use, and other anthropogenic and natural drivers have the potential to influence fire dynamics in many regions. To develop a mechanistic understanding of the changing role of these drivers and their impact on atmospheric composition, long-term fire records are needed that fuse information from different satellite and in situ data streams. Here we describe the fourth version of the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED and quantify global fire emissions patterns during 1997–2016. The modeling system, based on the Carnegie–Ames–Stanford Approach (CASA biogeochemical model, has several modifications from the previous version and uses higher quality input datasets. Significant upgrades include (1 new burned area estimates with contributions from small fires, (2 a revised fuel consumption parameterization optimized using field observations, (3 modifications that improve the representation of fuel consumption in frequently burning landscapes, and (4 fire severity estimates that better represent continental differences in burning processes across boreal regions of North America and Eurasia. The new version has a higher spatial resolution (0.25° and uses a different set of emission factors that separately resolves trace gas and aerosol emissions from temperate and boreal forest ecosystems. Global mean carbon emissions using the burned area dataset with small fires (GFED4s were 2.2  ×  1015 grams of carbon per year (Pg C yr−1 during 1997–2016, with a maximum in 1997 (3.0 Pg C yr−1 and minimum in 2013 (1.8 Pg C yr−1. These estimates were 11 % higher than our previous estimates (GFED3 during 1997–2011, when the two datasets overlapped. This net increase was the result of a substantial increase in burned area (37 %, mostly due to the inclusion of small fires, and a modest decrease in mean fuel consumption (−19 % to better match estimates from field studies, primarily in savannas and

  3. Global fire emissions estimates during 1997-2016

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Werf, Guido R.; Randerson, James T.; Giglio, Louis; van Leeuwen, Thijs T.; Chen, Yang; Rogers, Brendan M.; Mu, Mingquan; van Marle, Margreet J. E.; Morton, Douglas C.; Collatz, G. James; Yokelson, Robert J.; Kasibhatla, Prasad S.

    2017-09-01

    Climate, land use, and other anthropogenic and natural drivers have the potential to influence fire dynamics in many regions. To develop a mechanistic understanding of the changing role of these drivers and their impact on atmospheric composition, long-term fire records are needed that fuse information from different satellite and in situ data streams. Here we describe the fourth version of the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED) and quantify global fire emissions patterns during 1997-2016. The modeling system, based on the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach (CASA) biogeochemical model, has several modifications from the previous version and uses higher quality input datasets. Significant upgrades include (1) new burned area estimates with contributions from small fires, (2) a revised fuel consumption parameterization optimized using field observations, (3) modifications that improve the representation of fuel consumption in frequently burning landscapes, and (4) fire severity estimates that better represent continental differences in burning processes across boreal regions of North America and Eurasia. The new version has a higher spatial resolution (0.25°) and uses a different set of emission factors that separately resolves trace gas and aerosol emissions from temperate and boreal forest ecosystems. Global mean carbon emissions using the burned area dataset with small fires (GFED4s) were 2.2 × 1015 grams of carbon per year (Pg C yr-1) during 1997-2016, with a maximum in 1997 (3.0 Pg C yr-1) and minimum in 2013 (1.8 Pg C yr-1). These estimates were 11 % higher than our previous estimates (GFED3) during 1997-2011, when the two datasets overlapped. This net increase was the result of a substantial increase in burned area (37 %), mostly due to the inclusion of small fires, and a modest decrease in mean fuel consumption (-19 %) to better match estimates from field studies, primarily in savannas and grasslands. For trace gas and aerosol emissions, differences between

  4. Global Scale Methane Emissions from On-Site Wastewater Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reid, M. C.; Guan, K.; Mauzerall, D. L.

    2013-12-01

    Pit latrines and other on-site sanitation methods are important forms of wastewater management at the global scale, providing hygienic and low-cost sanitation for more than 1.7 billion people in developing and middle-income regions. Latrines have also been identified as major sources of the greenhouse gas methane (CH4) from the anaerobic decomposition of organic waste in pits. Understanding the greenhouse gas footprint of different wastewater systems is essential for sustainable water resource development and management. Despite this importance, CH4 emissions from decentralized wastewater treatment have received little attention in the scientific literature, and the rough calculations underlying government inventories and integrated assessment models do not accurately capture variations in emissions within and between countries. In this study, we improve upon earlier efforts and develop the first spatially explicit approach to quantifying latrine CH4 emissions, combining a high-resolution geospatial analysis of population, urbanization, and water table (as an indicator of anaerobic decomposition pathways) with CH4 emissions factors from the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories. Country-level health and sanitation surveys were used to determine latrine utilization in 2000 and predict usage in 2015. 18 representative countries in Asia, Africa, and Latin America were selected for this analysis to illustrate regional variations in CH4 emissions and to include the greatest emitting nations. Our analysis confirms that pit latrines are a globally significant anthropogenic CH4 source, emitting 4.7 Tg CH4 yr-1 in the countries considered here. This total is projected to decrease ~25% by 2015, however, driven largely by rapid urbanization in China and decreased reliance on latrines in favor of flush toilets. India has the greatest potential for large growth in emissions in the post-2015 period, since public health campaigns to end open defecation

  5. Update and improvement of the global krypton-85 emission inventory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahlswede, Jochen; Hebel, Simon; Ross, J Ole; Schoetter, Robert; Kalinowski, Martin B

    2013-01-01

    Krypton-85 is mainly produced in nuclear reactors by fission of uranium and plutonium and released during chopping and dissolution of spent fuel rods in nuclear reprocessing facilities. As noble gas it is suited as a passive tracer for evaluation of atmospheric transport models. Furthermore, research is ongoing to assess its quality as an indicator for clandestine reprocessing activities. This paper continues previous efforts to compile a comprehensive historic emission inventory for krypton-85. Reprocessing facilities are the by far largest emitters of krypton-85. Information on sources and calculations used to derive the annual krypton-85 emission is provided for all known reprocessing facilities in the world. In addition, the emission characteristics of two plants, Tokai (Japan) and La Hague (France), are analysed in detail using emission data with high temporal resolution. Other types of krypton-85 sources are power reactors, naval reactors and isotope production facilities. These sources contribute only little or negligible amounts of krypton-85 compared to the large reprocessing facilities. Taking the decay of krypton-85 into account, the global atmospheric inventory is estimated to about 5500 PBq at the end of 2009. The correctness if the inventory has been proven by meteorological simulations and its error is assumed to be in the range of a few percent.

  6. Prediction of monthly mean daily global solar radiation using Artificial Neural Network

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    V Sivamadhavi; R Samuel Selvaraj

    2012-12-01

    In this study, a multilayer feed forward (MLFF) neural network based on back propagation algorithm was developed, trained, and tested to predict monthly mean daily global radiation in Tamil Nadu, India. Various geographical, solar and meteorological parameters of three different locations with diverse climatic conditions were used as input parameters. Out of 565 available data, 530 were used for training and the rest were used for testing the artificial neural network (ANN). A 3-layer and a 4-layer MLFF networks were developed and the performance of the developed models was evaluated based on mean bias error, mean absolute percentage error, root mean squared error and Student’s -test. The 3-layer MLFF network developed in this study did not give uniform results for the three chosen locations. Hence, a 4-layer MLFF network was developed and the average value of the mean absolute percentage error was found to be 5.47%. Values of global radiation obtained using the model were in excellent agreement with measured values. Results of this study show that the designed ANN model can be used to estimate monthly mean daily global radiation of any place in Tamil Nadu where measured global radiation data are not available.

  7. Assessment of the global monthly mean surface insolation estimated from satellite measurements using global energy balance archive data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Zhanqing; Whitlock, Charles H.; Charlock, Thomas P.

    1995-01-01

    Global sets of surface radiation budget (SRB) have been obtained from satellite programs. These satellite-based estimates need validation with ground-truth observations. This study validates the estimates of monthly mean surface insolation contained in two satellite-based SRB datasets with the surface measurements made at worldwide radiation stations from the Global Energy Balance Archive (GEBA). One dataset was developed from the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) using the algorithm of Li et al. (ERBE/SRB), and the other from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) using the algorithm of Pinker and Laszlo and that of Staylor (GEWEX/SRB). Since the ERBE/SRB data contain the surface net solar radiation only, the values of surface insolation were derived by making use of the surface albedo data contained GEWEX/SRB product. The resulting surface insolation has a bias error near zero and a root-mean-square error (RMSE) between 8 and 28 W/sq m. The RMSE is mainly associated with poor representation of surface observations within a grid cell. When the number of surface observations are sufficient, the random error is estimated to be about 5 W/sq m with present satellite-based estimates. In addition to demonstrating the strength of the retrieving method, the small random error demonstrates how well the ERBE derives from the monthly mean fluxes at the top of the atmosphere (TOA). A larger scatter is found for the comparison of transmissivity than for that of insolation. Month to month comparison of insolation reveals a weak seasonal trend in bias error with an amplitude of about 3 W/sq m. As for the insolation data from the GEWEX/SRB, larger bias errors of 5-10 W/sq m are evident with stronger seasonal trends and almost identical RMSEs.

  8. Multispectral Emission of the Sun during the First Whole Sun Month: Magnetohydrodynamic Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lionello, Roberto; Linker, Jon A.; Mikic, Zoran

    2008-01-01

    We demonstrate that a three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulation of the corona can model its global plasma density and temperature structure with sufficient accuracy to reproduce many of the multispectral properties of the corona observed in extreme ultraviolet (EW) and X-ray emission. The key ingredient to this new type of global MHD model is the inclusion of energy transport processes (coronal heating, anisotropic thermal conduction, and radiative losses) in the energy equation. The calculation of these processes has previously been confined to one-dimensional loop models, idealized two-dimensional computations, and three-dimensional active region models. We refer to this as the thermodynamic MHD model, and we apply it to the time period of Carrington rotation 1913 (1996 August 22 to September 18). The form of the coronal heating term strongly affects the plasma density and temperature of the solutions. We perform our calculation for three different empirical heating models: (1) a heating function exponentially decreasing in radius; (2) the model of Schrijver et al.; and (3) a model reproducing the heating properties of the quiet Sun and active regions. We produce synthetic emission images from the density and temperature calculated with these three heating functions and quantitatively compare them with observations from E W Imaging Telescope on the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory and the soft X-ray telescope on Yohkoh. Although none of the heating models provide a perfect match, heating models 2 and 3 provide a reasonable match to the observations.

  9. Global Land Surface Emissivity Retrieved From Satellite Ultraspectral IR Measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, D. K.; Larar, A. M.; Liu, Xu; Smith, W. L.; Strow, L. L.; Yang, Ping; Schlussel, P.; Calbet, X.

    2011-01-01

    Ultraspectral resolution infrared (IR) radiances obtained from nadir observations provide information about the atmosphere, surface, aerosols, and clouds. Surface spectral emissivity (SSE) and surface skin temperature from current and future operational satellites can and will reveal critical information about the Earth s ecosystem and land-surface-type properties, which might be utilized as a means of long-term monitoring of the Earth s environment and global climate change. In this study, fast radiative transfer models applied to the atmosphere under all weather conditions are used for atmospheric profile and surface or cloud parameter retrieval from ultraspectral and/or hyperspectral spaceborne IR soundings. An inversion scheme, dealing with cloudy as well as cloud-free radiances observed with ultraspectral IR sounders, has been developed to simultaneously retrieve atmospheric thermodynamic and surface or cloud microphysical parameters. This inversion scheme has been applied to the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI). Rapidly produced SSE is initially evaluated through quality control checks on the retrievals of other impacted surface and atmospheric parameters. Initial validation of retrieved emissivity spectra is conducted with Namib and Kalahari desert laboratory measurements. Seasonal products of global land SSE and surface skin temperature retrieved with IASI are presented to demonstrate seasonal variation of SSE.

  10. How have both cultivation and warming influenced annual global isoprene and monoterpene emissions since the preindustrial era?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Tanaka

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available To examine the influence of both crop cultivation and surface air temperatures (SATs on annual global isoprene and monoterpene emissions, which can lead to the formation of secondary organic aerosols (SOAs, we simulated, on a monthly basis, the annual emissions of volatile organic compounds (VOCs during the period 1854–2000. The model estimates were based on historical climate data such as SATs, and downward solar radiation (DSR reproduced with an atmospheric-ocean circulation model, as well as a time series of the global distribution of cropland (to test the hypothesis that conversion of forests into croplands lowers emissions. The simulations demonstrated that global SAT, DSR, the combination of SAT and DSR, and the expansion of cropland all affected emissions. The effect of cropland expansion (i.e., forest conversion on annual emissions during this period was larger for isoprene (~7% reduction on a global scale than for monoterpenes (~2% reduction, mainly because of the reduction in broadleaf evergreen forests (BEFs in Southeast Asia, which have the highest and most constant emissions of isoprene and where both temperature and radiation are high all year round. The reduction in the Amazon region and in parts of Africa, which are other primary sources of annual global isoprene emissions, but where the conversion of BEF to cropland has been much smaller than in Southeast Asia, was less remarkable, probably because the broadleaf deciduous forests and C4 grasslands in these areas have lower and seasonal emissions; hence, their conversion has less effect. On the other hand, the difference in the emission factors (ε between cropland and the other vegetation types was much lower for monoterpenes than for isoprene, although the ε for cropland was generally the lowest for both compounds. Thus, the expansion of cropland also contributed to the reduction in monoterpene emissions to some degree, but had less effect. A ~5% increase in emissions due to

  11. Effects of future anthropogenic pollution emissions on global air quality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pozzer, A.; Zimmermann, P.; Doering, U.; van Aardenne, J.; Dentener, F.; Lelieveld, J.

    2012-04-01

    The atmospheric chemistry general circulation model EMAC is used to estimate the impact of anthropogenic emission changes on global and regional air quality in recent and future years (2005, 2010, 2025 and 2050). The emission scenario assumes that population and economic growth largely determine energy consumption and consequent pollution sources ("business as usual"). By comparing with recent observations, it is shown that the model reproduces the main features of regional air pollution distributions though with some imprecision inherent to the coarse horizontal resolution (around 100 km). To identify possible future hot spots of poor air quality, a multi pollutant index (MPI) has been applied. It appears that East and South Asia and the Arabian Gulf regions represent such hotspots due to very high pollutant concentrations. In East Asia a range of pollutant gases and particulate matter (PM2.5) are projected to reach very high levels from 2005 onward, while in South Asia air pollution, including ozone, will grow rapidly towards the middle of the century. Around the Arabian Gulf, where natural PM2.5 concentrations are already high (desert dust), ozone levels will increase strongly. By extending the MPI definition, we calculated a Per Capita MPI (PCMPI) in which we combined population projections with those of pollution emissions. It thus appears that a rapidly increasing number of people worldwide will experience reduced air quality during the first half of the 21st century. It is projected that air quality for the global average citizen in 2050 will be comparable to the average in East Asia in the year 2005.

  12. The Version 2 Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) Monthly Precipitation Analysis (1979-Present)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adler, Robert F.; Huffman, George J.; Chang, Alfred; Ferraro, Ralph; Xie, Ping-Ping; Janowiak, John; Rudolf, Bruno; Schneider, Udo; Curtis, Scott; Bolvin, David

    2003-01-01

    The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) Version 2 Monthly Precipitation Analysis is described. This globally complete, monthly analysis of surface precipitation at 2.5 degrees x 2.5 degrees latitude-longitude resolution is available from January 1979 to the present. It is a merged analysis that incorporates precipitation estimates from low-orbit-satellite microwave data, geosynchronous-orbit-satellite infrared data, and rain gauge observations. The merging approach utilizes the higher accuracy of the low-orbit microwave observations to calibrate, or adjust, the more frequent geosynchronous infrared observations. The data set is extended back into the premicrowave era (before 1987) by using infrared-only observations calibrated to the microwave-based analysis of the later years. The combined satellite-based product is adjusted by the raingauge analysis. This monthly analysis is the foundation for the GPCP suite of products including those at finer temporal resolution, satellite estimate, and error estimates for each field. The 23-year GPCP climatology is characterized, along with time and space variations of precipitation.

  13. New global fire emission estimates and evaluation of volatile organic compounds

    Science.gov (United States)

    C. Wiedinmyer; L. K. Emmons; S. K. Akagi; R. J. Yokelson; J. J. Orlando; J. A. Al-Saadi; A. J. Soja

    2010-01-01

    A daily, high-resolution, global fire emissions model has been built to estimate emissions from open burning for air quality modeling applications: The Fire INventory from NCAR (FINN version 1). The model framework uses daily fire detections from the MODIS instruments and updated emission factors, specifically for speciated non-methane organic compounds (NMOC). Global...

  14. Assessment of the potential forecasting skill of a global hydrological model in reproducing the occurrence of monthly flow extremes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Candogan Yossef, N.A.N.N.; Beek, L.P.H. van; Kwadijk, J.C.J.; Bierkens, M.F.P.

    2012-01-01

    As an initial step in assessing the prospect of using global hydrological models (GHMs) for hydrological forecasting, this study investigates the skill of the GHM PCRGLOBWB in reproducing the occurrence of past extremes in monthly discharge on a global scale. Global terrestrial hydrology from 1958

  15. Estimation of monthly average daily global solar irradiation using artificial neural networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mubiru, J.; Banda, E.J.K.B. [Department of Physics, Makerere University, P.O. Box 7062, Kampala (Uganda)

    2008-02-15

    This study explores the possibility of developing a prediction model using artificial neural networks (ANN), which could be used to estimate monthly average daily global solar irradiation on a horizontal surface for locations in Uganda based on weather station data: sunshine duration, maximum temperature, cloud cover and location parameters: latitude, longitude, altitude. Results have shown good agreement between the estimated and measured values of global solar irradiation. A correlation coefficient of 0.974 was obtained with mean bias error of 0.059 MJ/m{sup 2} and root mean square error of 0.385 MJ/m{sup 2}. The comparison between the ANN and empirical method emphasized the superiority of the proposed ANN prediction model. (author)

  16. Projections of emissions from burning of biomass foruse in studies of global climate and atmospheric chemistry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Darold E. Ward; Weimin Hao

    1991-01-01

    Emissions of trace gases and particulate matter from burning of biomass are generally factored into global climate models. Models for improving the estimates of the global annual release of emissions from biomass fires are presented. Estimates of total biomass consumed on a global basis range from 2 to 10 Pg (1 petagram = 1015 g) per year. New...

  17. Assessment of the consistency among global microwave land surface emissivity products

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Norouzi

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available The goal of this work is to inter-compare a number of global land surface emissivity products over various land-cover conditions to assess their consistency. Ultimately, the discrepancies between the studied emissivity products will help interpreting the divergences among numerical weather prediction models in which land emissivity is a key surface boundary parameter. The intercompared retrieved land emissivity products were generated over five-year period (2003–2007 using observations from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer – Earth Observing System (AMSR-E, Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I, The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI and Windsat. First, all products were reprocessed in the same projection and spatial resolution as they were generated from sensors with various configurations. Then, the mean value and standard deviations of monthly emissivity values were calculated for each product to assess the spatial distribution of the consistencies/inconsistencies among the products across the globe. The emissivity values from four products were also compared to soil moisture estimates and satellite-based vegetation index to assess their sensitivities to the changes in land surface conditions. Results show that systematic differences among products exist and variation of emissivities at each product has similar frequency dependency at any land cover type. Monthly means of emissivity values from AMSR-E in the vertical and horizontal polarizations seem to be systematically lower across various land cover condition which may be attributed to the 1.30 a.m./p.m. overpass time of the sensor and possibly a residual skin temperature effect in the product. The standard deviation of the analysed products was the lowest (less than 0.01 in rain forest regions for all products and the highest in northern latitudes, above 0.04 for AMSR-E and SSM/I and around 0.03 for WindSat. Despite differences in absolute

  18. Prediction of Monthly Summer Monsoon Rainfall Using Global Climate Models Through Artificial Neural Network Technique

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nair, Archana; Singh, Gurjeet; Mohanty, U. C.

    2017-08-01

    The monthly prediction of summer monsoon rainfall is very challenging because of its complex and chaotic nature. In this study, a non-linear technique known as Artificial Neural Network (ANN) has been employed on the outputs of Global Climate Models (GCMs) to bring out the vagaries inherent in monthly rainfall prediction. The GCMs that are considered in the study are from the International Research Institute (IRI) (2-tier CCM3v6) and the National Centre for Environmental Prediction (Coupled-CFSv2). The ANN technique is applied on different ensemble members of the individual GCMs to obtain monthly scale prediction over India as a whole and over its spatial grid points. In the present study, a double-cross-validation and simple randomization technique was used to avoid the over-fitting during training process of the ANN model. The performance of the ANN-predicted rainfall from GCMs is judged by analysing the absolute error, box plots, percentile and difference in linear error in probability space. Results suggest that there is significant improvement in prediction skill of these GCMs after applying the ANN technique. The performance analysis reveals that the ANN model is able to capture the year to year variations in monsoon months with fairly good accuracy in extreme years as well. ANN model is also able to simulate the correct signs of rainfall anomalies over different spatial points of the Indian domain.

  19. ASTER Global Emissivity Dataset 1-kilometer Binary V003 - AG1KMB

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — The Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection radiometer Global Emissivity Database (ASTER GED) was developed by the National Aeronautics and Space...

  20. ASTER Global Emissivity Dataset 100-meter Binary V003 - AG100B

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — The Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection radiometer Global Emissivity Database (ASTER GED) was developed by the National Aeronautics and Space...

  1. ASTER Global Emissivity Dataset 1-kilometer V003 - AG1KM

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — The Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection radiometer Global Emissivity Database (ASTER GED) was developed by the National Aeronautics and Space...

  2. Estimates of global terrestrial isoprene emissions using MEGAN (Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Guenther

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Reactive gases and aerosols are produced by terrestrial ecosystems, processed within plant canopies, and can then be emitted into the above-canopy atmosphere. Estimates of the above-canopy fluxes are needed for quantitative earth system studies and assessments of past, present and future air quality and climate. The Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGAN is described and used to quantify net terrestrial biosphere emission of isoprene into the atmosphere. MEGAN is designed for both global and regional emission modeling and has global coverage with ~1 km2 spatial resolution. Field and laboratory investigations of the processes controlling isoprene emission are described and data available for model development and evaluation are summarized. The factors controlling isoprene emissions include biological, physical and chemical driving variables. MEGAN driving variables are derived from models and satellite and ground observations. Tropical broadleaf trees contribute almost half of the estimated global annual isoprene emission due to their relatively high emission factors and because they are often exposed to conditions that are conducive for isoprene emission. The remaining flux is primarily from shrubs which have a widespread distribution. The annual global isoprene emission estimated with MEGAN ranges from about 500 to 750 Tg isoprene (440 to 660 Tg carbon depending on the driving variables which include temperature, solar radiation, Leaf Area Index, and plant functional type. The global annual isoprene emission estimated using the standard driving variables is ~600 Tg isoprene. Differences in driving variables result in emission estimates that differ by more than a factor of three for specific times and locations. It is difficult to evaluate isoprene emission estimates using the concentration distributions simulated using chemistry and transport models, due to the substantial uncertainties in other model components, but at

  3. Global dataset of biogenic VOC emissions calculated by the MEGAN model over the last 30 years

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Sindelarova

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available The Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGANv2.1 together with the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA meteorological fields were used to create a global emission dataset of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOC available on a monthly basis for the time period of 1980–2010. This dataset is called MEGAN-MACC. The model estimated mean annual total BVOC emission of 760 Tg (C yr−1 consisting of isoprene (70%, monoterpenes (11%, methanol (6%, acetone (3%, sesquiterpenes (2.5% and other BVOC species each contributing less than 2%. Several sensitivity model runs were performed to study the impact of different model input and model settings on isoprene estimates and resulted in differences of up to ±17% of the reference isoprene total. A greater impact was observed for a sensitivity run applying parameterization of soil moisture deficit that led to a 50% reduction of isoprene emissions on a global scale, most significantly in specific regions of Africa, South America and Australia. MEGAN-MACC estimates are comparable to results of previous studies. More detailed comparison with other isoprene inventories indicated significant spatial and temporal differences between the datasets especially for Australia, Southeast Asia and South America. MEGAN-MACC estimates of isoprene, α-pinene and group of monoterpenes showed a reasonable agreement with surface flux measurements at sites located in tropical forests in the Amazon and Malaysia. The model was able to capture the seasonal variation of isoprene emissions in the Amazon forest.

  4. Global Precipitation Variations and Long-term Changes Derived from the GPCP Monthly Product

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adler, Robert F.; Gu, Guojun; Huffman, George; Curtis, Scott

    2005-01-01

    Global and large regional rainfall variations and possible long-term changes are examined using the 25-year (1979-2004) monthly dataset from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). The emphasis is to discriminate among the variations due to ENSO, volcanic events and possible long-term changes. Although the global change of precipitation in the data set is near zero, the data set does indicate an upward trend (0.13 mm/day/25yr) and a downward trend (-0.06 mm/day/25yr) over tropical oceans and lands (25S-25N), respectively. This corresponds to a 4% increase (ocean) and 2% decrease (land) during this time period. Techniques are applied to attempt to eliminate variations due to ENSO and major volcanic eruptions. The impact of the two major volcanic eruptions over the past 25 years is estimated to be about a 5% reduction in tropical rainfall. The modified data set (with ENSO and volcano effect removed) retains the same approximate change slopes, but with reduced variance leading to significance tests with results in the 90-95% range. Inter-comparisons between the GPCP, SSWI (1988-2004), and TRMM (1998-2004) rainfall products are made to increase or decrease confidence in the changes seen in the GPCP analysis.

  5. Estimates of global terrestrial isoprene emissions using MEGAN (Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Guenther

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Reactive gases and aerosols are produced by terrestrial ecosystems, processed within plant canopies, and can then be emitted into the above-canopy atmosphere. Estimates of the above-canopy fluxes are needed for quantitative earth system studies and assessments of past, present and future air quality and climate. The Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGAN is described and used to quantify net terrestrial biosphere emission of isoprene into the atmosphere. MEGAN is designed for both global and regional emission modeling and has global coverage with ~1 km2 spatial resolution. Field and laboratory investigations of the processes controlling isoprene emission are described and data available for model development and evaluation are summarized. The factors controlling isoprene emissions include biological, physical and chemical driving variables. MEGAN driving variables are derived from models and satellite and ground observations. Broadleaf trees, mostly in the tropics, contribute about half of the estimated global annual isoprene emission due to their relatively high emission factors and because they are often exposed to conditions that are conducive for isoprene emission. The remaining flux is primarily from shrubs which are widespread and dominate at higher latitudes. MEGAN estimates global annual isoprene emissions of ~600 Tg isoprene but the results are very sensitive to the driving variables, including temperature, solar radiation, Leaf Area Index, and plant functional type. The annual global emission estimated with MEGAN ranges from about 500 to 750 Tg isoprene depending on the driving variables that are used. Differences in estimated emissions are more than a factor of 3 for specific times and locations. It is difficult to evaluate isoprene emission estimates using the concentration distributions simulated using chemistry and transport models due to the substantial uncertainties in other model components

  6. Technical note: 3-hourly temporal downscaling of monthly global terrestrial biosphere model net ecosystem exchange

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fisher, Joshua B.; Sikka, Munish; Huntzinger, Deborah N.; Schwalm, Christopher; Liu, Junjie

    2016-07-01

    The land surface provides a boundary condition to atmospheric forward and flux inversion models. These models require prior estimates of CO2 fluxes at relatively high temporal resolutions (e.g., 3-hourly) because of the high frequency of atmospheric mixing and wind heterogeneity. However, land surface model CO2 fluxes are often provided at monthly time steps, typically because the land surface modeling community focuses more on time steps associated with plant phenology (e.g., seasonal) than on sub-daily phenomena. Here, we describe a new dataset created from 15 global land surface models and 4 ensemble products in the Multi-scale Synthesis and Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project (MsTMIP), temporally downscaled from monthly to 3-hourly output. We provide 3-hourly output for each individual model over 7 years (2004-2010), as well as an ensemble mean, a weighted ensemble mean, and the multi-model standard deviation. Output is provided in three different spatial resolutions for user preferences: 0.5° × 0.5°, 2.0° × 2.5°, and 4.0° × 5.0° (latitude × longitude). These data are publicly available from doi:10.3334/ORNLDAAC/1315.

  7. Estimating aerosol emissions by assimilating observed aerosol optical depth in a global aerosol model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Huneeus

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This study estimates the emission fluxes of a range of aerosol species and aerosol precursor at the global scale. These fluxes are estimated by assimilating daily total and fine mode aerosol optical depth (AOD at 550 nm from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS into a global aerosol model of intermediate complexity. Monthly emissions are fitted homogenously for each species over a set of predefined regions. The performance of the assimilation is evaluated by comparing the AOD after assimilation against the MODIS observations and against independent observations. The system is effective in forcing the model towards the observations, for both total and fine mode AOD. Significant improvements for the root mean square error and correlation coefficient against both the assimilated and independent datasets are observed as well as a significant decrease in the mean bias against the assimilated observations. The assimilation is more efficient over land than over ocean. The impact of the assimilation of fine mode AOD over ocean demonstrates potential for further improvement by including fine mode AOD observations over continents. The Angström exponent is also improved in African, European and dusty stations. The estimated emission flux for black carbon is 14.5 Tg yr−1, 119 Tg yr−1 for organic matter, 17 Pg yr−1 for sea salt, 82.7 TgS yr−1 for SO2 and 1383 Tg yr−1 for desert dust. They represent a difference of +45%, +40%, +26%, +13% and −39% respectively, with respect to the a priori values. The initial errors attributed to the emission fluxes are reduced for all estimated species.

  8. Estimating aerosol emissions by assimilating observed aerosol optical depth in a global aerosol model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Huneeus

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available This study estimates the emission fluxes of a range of aerosol species and one aerosol precursor at the global scale. These fluxes are estimated by assimilating daily total and fine mode aerosol optical depth (AOD at 550 nm from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS into a global aerosol model of intermediate complexity. Monthly emissions are fitted homogenously for each species over a set of predefined regions. The performance of the assimilation is evaluated by comparing the AOD after assimilation against the MODIS observations and against independent observations. The system is effective in forcing the model towards the observations, for both total and fine mode AOD. Significant improvements for the root mean square error and correlation coefficient against both the assimilated and independent datasets are observed as well as a significant decrease in the mean bias against the assimilated observations. These improvements are larger over land than over ocean. The impact of the assimilation of fine mode AOD over ocean demonstrates potential for further improvement by including fine mode AOD observations over continents. The Angström exponent is also improved in African, European and dusty stations. The estimated emission flux for black carbon is 15 Tg yr−1, 119 Tg yr−1 for particulate organic matter, 17 Pg yr−1 for sea salt, 83 TgS yr−1 for SO2 and 1383 Tg yr−1 for desert dust. They represent a difference of +45 %, +40 %, +26 %, +13 % and −39 % respectively, with respect to the a priori values. The initial errors attributed to the emission fluxes are reduced for all estimated species.

  9. Global isoprene and monoterpene emissions under changing climate, vegetation, CO2 and land use

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hantson, Stijn; Knorr, Wolfgang; Schurgers, Guy

    2017-01-01

    .). It is therefore necessary to know how isoprene and monoterpene emissions have changed over the past and how future changes in climate, land-use and other factors will impact them. Here we present emission estimates of isoprene and monoterpenes over the period 1901–2 100 based on the dynamic global vegetation...... model LPJ-GUESS, including the effects of all known important drivers. We find that both isoprene and monoterpene emissions at the beginning of the 20th century were higher than at present. While anthropogenic land-use change largely drives the global decreasing trend for isoprene over the 20th century......, changes in natural vegetation composition caused a decreasing trend for monoterpene emissions. Future global isoprene and monoterpene emissions depend strongly on the climate and land-use scenarios considered. Over the 21st century, global isoprene emissions are simulated to either remain stable (RCP 4...

  10. On the proportionality between global temperature change and cumulative CO2 emissions during periods of net negative CO2 emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zickfeld, Kirsten; MacDougall, Andrew H.; Damon Matthews, H.

    2016-05-01

    Recent research has demonstrated that global mean surface air warming is approximately proportional to cumulative CO2 emissions. This proportional relationship has received considerable attention, as it allows one to calculate the cumulative CO2 emissions (‘carbon budget’) compatible with temperature targets and is a useful measure for model inter-comparison. Here we use an Earth system model to explore whether this relationship persists during periods of net negative CO2 emissions. Negative CO2 emissions are required in the majority of emissions scenarios limiting global warming to 2 °C above pre-industrial, with emissions becoming net negative in the second half of this century in several scenarios. We find that for model simulations with a symmetric 1% per year increase and decrease in atmospheric CO2, the temperature change (ΔT) versus cumulative CO2 emissions (CE) relationship is nonlinear during periods of net negative emissions, owing to the lagged response of the deep ocean to previously increasing atmospheric CO2. When corrected for this lagged response, or if the CO2 decline is applied after the system has equilibrated with the previous CO2 increase, the ΔT versus CE relationship is close to linear during periods of net negative CO2 emissions. A proportionality constant—the transient climate response to cumulative carbon emissions (TCRE)- can therefore be calculated for both positive and net negative CO2 emission periods. We find that in simulations with a symmetric 1% per year increase and decrease in atmospheric CO2 the TCRE is larger on the upward than on the downward CO2 trajectory, suggesting that positive CO2 emissions are more effective at warming than negative emissions are at subsequently cooling. We also find that the cooling effectiveness of negative CO2 emissions decreases if applied at higher atmospheric CO2 concentrations.

  11. Global Monthly CO2 Flux Inversion Based on Results of Terrestrial Ecosystem Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, F.; Chen, J.; Peters, W.; Krol, M.

    2008-12-01

    Most of our understanding of the sources and sinks of atmospheric CO2 has come from inverse studies of atmospheric CO2 concentration measurements. However, the number of currently available observation stations and our ability to simulate the diurnal planetary boundary layer evolution over continental regions essentially limit the number of regions that can be reliably inverted globally, especially over continental areas. In order to overcome these restrictions, a nested inverse modeling system was developed based on the Bayesian principle for estimating carbon fluxes of 30 regions in North America and 20 regions for the rest of the globe. Inverse modeling was conducted in monthly steps using CO2 concentration measurements of 5 years (2000 - 2005) with the following two models: (a) An atmospheric transport model (TM5) is used to generate the transport matrix where the diurnal variation n of atmospheric CO2 concentration is considered to enhance the use of the afternoon-hour average CO2 concentration measurements over the continental sites. (b) A process-based terrestrial ecosystem model (BEPS) is used to produce hourly step carbon fluxes, which could minimize the limitation due to our inability to solve the inverse problem in a high resolution, as the background of our inversion. We will present our recent results achieved through a combination of the bottom-up modeling with BEPS and the top-down modeling based on TM5 driven by offline meteorological fields generated by the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast (ECMFW).

  12. Global atmospheric emission inventory of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) for 2004

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yanxu; Tao, Shu

    The global atmospheric emissions of the 16 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) listed as the US EPA priority pollutants were estimated using reported emission activity and emission factor data for the reference year 2004. A database for emission factors was compiled, and their geometric means and frequency distributions applied for emission calculation and uncertainty analysis, respectively. The results for 37 countries were compared with other PAH emission inventories. It was estimated that the total global atmospheric emission of these 16 PAHs in 2004 was 520 giga grams per year (Gg y -1) with biofuel (56.7%), wildfire (17.0%) and consumer product usage (6.9%) as the major sources, and China (114 Gg y -1), India (90 Gg y -1) and United States (32 Gg y -1) were the top three countries with the highest PAH emissions. The PAH sources in the individual countries varied remarkably. For example, biofuel burning was the dominant PAH source in India, wildfire emissions were the dominant PAH source in Brazil, while consumer products were the major PAH emission source in the United States. In China, in addition to biomass combustion, coke ovens were a significant source of PAHs. Globally, benzo(a)pyrene accounted for 0.05% to 2.08% of the total PAH emission, with developing countries accounting for the higher percentages. The PAH emission density varied dramatically from 0.0013 kg km -2 y in the Falkland Islands to 360 kg km -2 y in Singapore with a global mean value of 3.98 kg km -2 y. The atmospheric emission of PAHs was positively correlated to the country's gross domestic product and negatively correlated with average income. Finally, a linear bivariate regression model was developed to explain the global PAH emission data.

  13. Comparison of global 3-D aviation emissions datasets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. C. Olsen

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Aviation emissions are unique from other transportation emissions, e.g., from road transportation and shipping, in that they occur at higher altitudes as well as at the surface. Aviation emissions of carbon dioxide, soot, and water vapor have direct radiative impacts on the Earth's climate system while emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx, sulfur oxides, carbon monoxide (CO, and hydrocarbons (HC impact air quality and climate through their effects on ozone, methane, and clouds. The most accurate estimates of the impact of aviation on air quality and climate utilize three-dimensional chemistry-climate models and gridded four dimensional (space and time aviation emissions datasets. We compare five available aviation emissions datasets currently and historically used to evaluate the impact of aviation on climate and air quality: NASA-Boeing 1992, NASA-Boeing 1999, QUANTIFY 2000, Aero2k 2002, and AEDT 2006 and aviation fuel usage estimates from the International Energy Agency. Roughly 90% of all aviation emissions are in the Northern Hemisphere and nearly 60% of all fuelburn and NOx emissions occur at cruise altitudes in the Northern Hemisphere. While these datasets were created by independent methods and are thus not strictly suitable for analyzing trends they suggest that commercial aviation fuelburn and NOx emissions increased over the last two decades while HC emissions likely decreased and CO emissions did not change significantly. The bottom-up estimates compared here are consistently lower than International Energy Agency fuelburn statistics although the gap is significantly smaller in the more recent datasets. Overall the emissions distributions are quite similar for fuelburn and NOx with regional peaks over the populated land masses of North America, Europe, and East Asia. For CO and HC there are relatively larger differences. There are however some distinct differences in the altitude distribution

  14. Comparison of global 3-D aviation emissions datasets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. C. Olsen

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Aviation emissions are unique from other transportation emissions, e.g., from road transportation and shipping, in that they occur at higher altitudes as well as at the surface. Aviation emissions of carbon dioxide, soot, and water vapor have direct radiative impacts on the Earth's climate system while emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx, sulfur oxides, carbon monoxide (CO, and hydrocarbons (HC impact air quality and climate through their effects on ozone, methane, and clouds. The most accurate estimates of the impact of aviation on air quality and climate utilize three-dimensional chemistry-climate models and gridded four dimensional (space and time aviation emissions datasets. We compare five available aviation emissions datasets currently and historically used to evaluate the impact of aviation on climate and air quality: NASA-Boeing 1992, NASA-Boeing 1999, QUANTIFY 2000, Aero2k 2002, and AEDT 2006 and aviation fuel usage estimates from the International Energy Agency. Roughly 90% of all aviation emissions are in the Northern Hemisphere and nearly 60% of all fuelburn and NOx emissions occur at cruise altitudes in the Northern Hemisphere. While these datasets were created by independent methods and are thus not strictly suitable for analyzing trends they suggest that commercial aviation fuelburn and NOx emissions increased over the last two decades while HC emissions likely decreased and CO emissions did not change significantly. The bottom-up estimates compared here are consistently lower than International Energy Agency fuelburn statistics although the gap is significantly lower in the more recent datasets. Overall the emissions distributions are quite similar for fuelburn and NOx while for CO and HC there are relatively larger differences. There are however some distinct differences in the altitude distribution of emissions in certain regions for the Aero2k dataset.

  15. Sensitivity of global biogenic isoprenoid emissions to climate variability and atmospheric CO2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naik, Vaishali; Delire, Christine; Wuebbles, Donald J.

    2004-03-01

    Isoprenoids (isoprene and monoterpenes) are the most dominant class of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) and have been shown to significantly affect global tropospheric chemistry and composition, climate, and the global carbon cycle. In this study we assess the sensitivity of biogenic isoprene and monoterpene emissions to combined and isolated fluctuations in observed global climate and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration during the period 1971-1990. We integrate surface emission algorithms within the framework of a dynamic global ecosystem model, the Integrated Biospheric Simulator (IBIS), to simulate biogenic fluxes of isoprenoids as a component of the climate-vegetation dynamics. IBIS predicts global land surface isoprene emissions of 454 Tg C and monoterpenes of 72 Tg C annually and captures the spatial and temporal patterns well. The combined fluctuations in climate and atmospheric CO2 during 1971-1990 caused significant interannual and seasonal variability in global biogenic isoprenoid fluxes that was somewhat related to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Furthermore, an increasing trend in the simulated emissions was seen during this period that is attributed partly to the warming trend and partly to CO2 fertilization effect. The isolated effect of increasing CO2 during this period was to steadily increase emissions as a result of increases in foliar biomass. These fluctuations in biogenic emissions could have significant impacts on regional and global atmospheric chemistry and the global carbon budget.

  16. The contribution of drained organic soils to the globally emitted greenhouse gases and emission hotspots

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barthelmes, Alexandra; Couwenberg, John; Joosten, Hans

    2016-04-01

    Key words: organic soils, peatlands, drainage, emissions, globally Peatlands cover only 3% of the global land surface. Some 15% of these peatlands have been drained for agriculture, forestry and grazing, which leads to the release of huge amounts of carbon. The '2013 Supplement to the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories: Wetlands' (IPCC 2014) offers up-to-date default emission factors for different land use types on organic soil and thus enables proper reporting. For this, realistic area data of drained organic soils are needed at a national scale. We analysed the drained organic soil areas and related emissions as reported to the UNFCCC in 2014 for several Nordic-Baltic countries . The analysis revealed that the areas often seem to be underestimated and that several countries use outdated emission factors. The re-assessment of the drained area and the application of the IPCC (2014) default emission factors resulted in 5-10 x higher emissions from drained organic soils for some countries. Out of 9 Nordic-Baltic countries only 1 country seems to have overestimated the drainage related organic soil emissions. If adopting the default emission factors from IPCC (2014) globally, the emissions from drained and degrading organic soils (~ 1,600 Mt CO2-eq.) amount to almost double the amount of CO2 emissions from aviation, even when emissions from peat fires are not included . By far the top single emitter of drained peatland related greenhouse gases is Indonesia, followed by the European Union and Russia. 25 countries are together responsible for 95% of global emissions from peatland drainage, excluding fires. Fires raise the importance of particularly Indonesia and Russian Federation. In 25 countries emissions from peatland degradation are over 50% of the emissions from fossil fuels and cement production combined, hence peatland emissions are of national significance.

  17. Origin of path independence between cumulative CO2 emissions and global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seshadri, Ashwin K.

    2017-02-01

    Observations and GCMs exhibit approximate proportionality between cumulative carbon dioxide (CO2 ) emissions and global warming. Here we identify sufficient conditions for the relationship between cumulative CO2 emissions and global warming to be independent of the path of CO2 emissions; referred to as "path independence". Our starting point is a closed form expression for global warming in a two-box energy balance model (EBM), which depends explicitly on cumulative emissions, airborne fraction and time. Path independence requires that this function can be approximated as depending on cumulative emissions alone. We show that path independence arises from weak constraints, occurring if the timescale for changes in cumulative emissions (equal to ratio between cumulative emissions and emissions rate) is small compared to the timescale for changes in airborne fraction (which depends on CO2 uptake), and also small relative to a derived climate model parameter called the damping-timescale, which is related to the rate at which deep-ocean warming affects global warming. Effects of uncertainties in the climate model and carbon cycle are examined. Large deep-ocean heat capacity in the Earth system is not necessary for path independence, which appears resilient to climate modeling uncertainties. However long time-constants in the Earth system carbon cycle are essential, ensuring that airborne fraction changes slowly with timescale much longer than the timescale for changes in cumulative emissions. Therefore path independence between cumulative emissions and warming cannot arise for short-lived greenhouse gases.

  18. Methane emissions from global rice fields: Magnitude, spatiotemporal patterns, and environmental controls

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Bowen; Tian, Hanqin; Ren, Wei; Tao, Bo; Lu, Chaoqun; Yang, Jia; Banger, Kamaljit; Pan, Shufen

    2016-09-01

    Given the importance of the potential positive feedback between methane (CH4) emissions and climate change, it is critical to accurately estimate the magnitude and spatiotemporal patterns of CH4 emissions from global rice fields and better understand the underlying determinants governing the emissions. Here we used a coupled biogeochemical model in combination with satellite-derived contemporary inundation area to quantify the magnitude and spatiotemporal variation of CH4 emissions from global rice fields and attribute the environmental controls of CH4 emissions during 1901-2010. Our study estimated that CH4 emissions from global rice fields varied from 18.3 ± 0.1 Tg CH4/yr (Avg. ±1 SD) under intermittent irrigation to 38.8 ± 1.0 Tg CH4/yr under continuous flooding in the 2000s, indicating that the magnitude of CH4 emissions from global rice fields is largely dependent on different water schemes. Over the past 110 years, our simulated results showed that global CH4 emissions from rice cultivation increased by 85%. The expansion of rice fields was the dominant factor for the increasing trends of CH4 emissions, followed by elevated CO2 concentration, and nitrogen fertilizer use. On the contrary, climate variability had reduced the cumulative CH4 emissions for most of the years over the study period. Our results imply that CH4 emissions from global rice fields could be reduced through optimizing irrigation practices. Therefore, the future magnitude of CH4 emissions from rice fields will be determined by the human demand for rice production as well as the implementation of optimized water management practices.

  19. Rapid growth in CO2 emissions after the 2008-2009 global financial crisis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Peters, Glen P. [Center for International Climate and Energy Research (CICERO), Oslo, Norway; Marland, Gregg [Appalachian State University; Le Quere, Corinne [University of East Anglia, Norwich, United Kingdom; Boden, Thomas A [ORNL; Canadell, Josep [CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research; Raupach, Michael [CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research

    2011-01-01

    Global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil-fuel combustion and cement production grew 5.9% in 2010, surpassed 9 Pg of carbon (Pg C) for the first time, and more than offset the 1.4% decrease in 2009. The impact of the 2008 2009 global financial crisis (GFC) on emissions has been short-lived owing to strong emissions growth in emerging economies, a return to emissions growth in developed economies, and an increase in the fossil-fuel intensity of the world economy.

  20. Keeping the Stars in Our Eyes: Global Astronomy Month's Dark Skies Awareness Programs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walker, Constance E.; Global Astronomy Month's Dark Skies Awareness Working Group

    2012-01-01

    The International Year of Astronomy provided opportunities to experience the beauty of the night sky. Every April since IYA2009, Global Astronomy Month (GAM) carried on the activities with new ones. Its goal is to bring astronomy enthusiasts together to celebrate astronomy and the beauty of observing the sky. Dark Skies Awareness (DSA) is a major program of GAM. Its main "take away" message focuses on reasons and methods for preserving the night sky. With half of the world's population living in cities, many people never experience the wonderment of a pristinely dark sky. "Light pollution” is obscuring people's long-standing natural heritage to view stars. Poorly-aimed and unshielded outdoor lights are the cause of most of the light pollution. They waste more than $2 billion (17 billion kilowatt-hours) of energy in the United States each year. Under unpolluted skies we ought to see more than a couple thousand stars, yet we see less than a hundred from many cities. A number of dark skies events and activities to promote public awareness on how to save energy and save our night sky were held worldwide during GAM2011 and will be held during GAM2012: · International Earth & Sky Photo Contest, April 1-22 · GLOBE at Night, which measures local levels of light pollution over a 10 day period, April 11-20 · International Dark Sky Week, April 14-20 · World Night in Defense of Starlight, April 20 · Dark Sky Rangers, designed to involve young people in preventing light pollution · One Star at a Time, creating accessible public spaces for viewing a dark night sky · Dark Skies Awareness 10 minute audio podcasts and poetry GAM 2012 DSA programs will be presented in terms of lessons learned and plans ahead to redress a disappearing natural heritage-our dark night sky.

  1. Sharing global CO2 emission reductions among one billion high emitters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chakravarty, Shoibal; Chikkatur, Ananth; de Coninck, Heleen; Pacala, Stephen; Socolow, Robert; Tavoni, Massimo

    2009-07-21

    We present a framework for allocating a global carbon reduction target among nations, in which the concept of "common but differentiated responsibilities" refers to the emissions of individuals instead of nations. We use the income distribution of a country to estimate how its fossil fuel CO(2) emissions are distributed among its citizens, from which we build up a global CO(2) distribution. We then propose a simple rule to derive a universal cap on global individual emissions and find corresponding limits on national aggregate emissions from this cap. All of the world's high CO(2)-emitting individuals are treated the same, regardless of where they live. Any future global emission goal (target and time frame) can be converted into national reduction targets, which are determined by "Business as Usual" projections of national carbon emissions and in-country income distributions. For example, reducing projected global emissions in 2030 by 13 GtCO(2) would require the engagement of 1.13 billion high emitters, roughly equally distributed in 4 regions: the U.S., the OECD minus the U.S., China, and the non-OECD minus China. We also modify our methodology to place a floor on emissions of the world's lowest CO(2) emitters and demonstrate that climate mitigation and alleviation of extreme poverty are largely decoupled.

  2. EU effect: Exporting emission standards for vehicles through the global market economy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crippa, M; Janssens-Maenhout, G; Guizzardi, D; Galmarini, S

    2016-12-01

    Emission data from EDGAR (Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research), rather than economic data, are used to estimate the effect of policies and of the global exports of policy-regulated goods, such as vehicles, on global emissions. The results clearly show that the adoption of emission standards for the road transport sector in the two main global markets (Europe and North America) has led to the global proliferation of emission-regulated vehicles through exports, regardless the domestic regulation in the country of destination. It is in fact more economically convenient for vehicle manufacturers to produce and sell a standard product to the widest possible market and in the greatest possible amounts. The EU effect (European Union effect) is introduced as a global counterpart to the California effect. The former is a direct consequence of the penetration of the EURO standards in the global markets by European and Japanese manufacturers, which effectively export the standard worldwide. We analyze the effect on PM2.5 emissions by comparing a scenario of non-EURO standards against the current estimates provided by EDGAR. We find that PM2.5 emissions were reduced by more than 60% since the 1990s worldwide. Similar investigations on other pollutants confirm the hypothesis that the combined effect of technological regulations and their diffusion through global markets can also produce a positive effect on the global environment. While we acknowledge the positive feedback, we also demonstrate that current efforts and standards will be totally insufficient should the passenger car fleets in emerging markets reach Western per capita figures. If emerging countries reach the per capita vehicle number of the USA and Europe under current technological conditions, then the world will suffer pre-1990 emission levels. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Global mercury emissions from combustion in light of international fuel trading.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yilin; Wang, Rong; Shen, Huizhong; Li, Wei; Chen, Han; Huang, Ye; Zhang, Yanyan; Chen, Yuanchen; Su, Shu; Lin, Nan; Liu, Junfeng; Li, Bengang; Wang, Xilong; Liu, Wenxin; Coveney, Raymond M; Tao, Shu

    2014-01-01

    The spatially resolved emission inventory is essential for understanding the fate of mercury. Previous global mercury emission inventories for fuel combustion sources overlooked the influence of fuel trading on local emission estimates of many countries, mostly developing countries, for which national emission data are not available. This study demonstrates that in many countries, the mercury content of coal and petroleum locally consumed differ significantly from those locally produced. If the mercury content in locally produced fuels were used to estimate emission, then the resulting global mercury emissions from coal and petroleum would be overestimated by 4.7 and 72%, respectively. Even higher misestimations would exist in individual countries, leading to strong spatial bias. On the basis of the available data on fuel trading and an updated global fuel consumption database, a new mercury emission inventory for 64 combustion sources has been developed. The emissions were mapped at 0.1° × 0.1° resolution for 2007 and at country resolution for a period from 1960 to 2006. The estimated global total mercury emission from all combustion sources (fossil fuel, biomass fuel, solid waste, and wildfires) in 2007 was 1454 Mg (1232-1691 Mg as interquartile range from Monte Carlo simulation), among which elementary mercury (Hg(0)), divalent gaseous mercury (Hg(2+)), and particulate mercury (Hg(p)) were 725, 548, and 181 Mg, respectively. The total emission from anthropogenic sources, excluding wildfires, was 1040 Mg (886-1248 Mg), with coal combustion contributing more than half. Globally, total annual anthropogenic mercury emission from combustion sources increased from 285 Mg (263-358 Mg) in 1960 to 1040 Mg (886-1248 Mg) in 2007, owing to an increased fuel consumption in developing countries. However, mercury emissions from developed countries have decreased since 2000.

  4. Global Anthropogenic Emissions of Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gases 1990-2020

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The data in these Appendices to the Global Anthropogenic Emissions of Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gases (1990-2020) report provide historical and projected estimates of...

  5. Decoupling of greenhouse gas emissions from global agricultural production: 1970-2050.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennetzen, Eskild H; Smith, Pete; Porter, John R

    2016-02-01

    Since 1970 global agricultural production has more than doubled; contributing ~1/4 of total anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) burden in 2010. Food production must increase to feed our growing demands, but to address climate change, GHG emissions must decrease. Using an identity approach, we estimate and analyse past trends in GHG emission intensities from global agricultural production and land-use change and project potential future emissions. The novel Kaya-Porter identity framework deconstructs the entity of emissions from a mix of multiple sources of GHGs into attributable elements allowing not only a combined analysis of the total level of all emissions jointly with emissions per unit area and emissions per unit product. It also allows us to examine how a change in emissions from a given source contributes to the change in total emissions over time. We show that agricultural production and GHGs have been steadily decoupled over recent decades. Emissions peaked in 1991 at ~12 Pg CO2 -eq. yr(-1) and have not exceeded this since. Since 1970 GHG emissions per unit product have declined by 39% and 44% for crop- and livestock-production, respectively. Except for the energy-use component of farming, emissions from all sources have increased less than agricultural production. Our projected business-as-usual range suggests that emissions may be further decoupled by 20-55% giving absolute agricultural emissions of 8.2-14.5 Pg CO2 -eq. yr(-1) by 2050, significantly lower than many previous estimates that do not allow for decoupling. Beyond this, several additional costcompetitive mitigation measures could reduce emissions further. However, agricultural GHG emissions can only be reduced to a certain level and a simultaneous focus on other parts of the food-system is necessary to increase food security whilst reducing emissions. The identity approach presented here could be used as a methodological framework for more holistic food systems analysis. © 2015 John Wiley

  6. Current emission trends for nitrogen oxides, sulfur dioxide, and volatile organic compounds by month and state: Methodology and results

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kohout, E.J.; Miller, D.J.; Nieves, L.A.; Rothman, D.S.; Saricks, C.L.; Stodolsky, F.; Hanson, D.A.

    1990-08-01

    This report presents estimates of monthly sulfur dioxide (SO{sub 2}), nitrogen oxides (NO{sub x}), and nonmethane voltatile organic compound (VOC) emissions by sector, region, and state in the contiguous United States for the years 1975 through 1988. This work has been funded as part of the National Acid Precipitation Assessment Program`s Emissions and Controls Task Group by the US Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Fossil Energy (FE). The DOE project officer is Edward C. Trexler, DOE/FE Office of Planning and Environment.

  7. Current emission trends for nitrogen oxides, sulfur dioxide, and volatile organic compounds by month and state: Methodology and results

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kohout, E.J.; Miller, D.J.; Nieves, L.A.; Rothman, D.S.; Saricks, C.L.; Stodolsky, F.; Hanson, D.A.

    1990-08-01

    This report presents estimates of monthly sulfur dioxide (SO{sub 2}), nitrogen oxides (NO{sub x}), and nonmethane voltatile organic compound (VOC) emissions by sector, region, and state in the contiguous United States for the years 1975 through 1988. This work has been funded as part of the National Acid Precipitation Assessment Program's Emissions and Controls Task Group by the US Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Fossil Energy (FE). The DOE project officer is Edward C. Trexler, DOE/FE Office of Planning and Environment.

  8. Fire emissions simulated by prescribing burned area observations in a global vegetation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khlystova, Iryna G.; Wilkenskjeld, Stiig; Kloster, Silvia

    2014-05-01

    The emissions of trace gases and aerosols from large vegetation fires into the atmosphere have an important climate impact. In this study we integrate observed burned area into a global vegetation model to derive global fire emissions. A global continuous burned area products provided by GFED (Global Fire Emissions Dataset) were obtained from MODIS (and pre-MODIS) satellites and are available for the time period 1997-2011. We integrate the global burned area product into the global vegetation model JSBACH, a land part of the Earth-System model developed at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. JSBACH simulates land biomass in terms of carbon, which can be combined with the satellite burned area information to derive fire carbon emissions. Some assumptions on fire fuel consumptions have to be made during the integration of satellite burned area into the JSBACH. This includes processes such as tree mortality and combustion completeness, i.e. how much of the vegetation biomass gets combusted during a fire. Partially, this information can be also obtained from measurements. In this study we follow closely the approach of GFED, incorporating also GFED supplemental information, to simulate fuel consumption in JSBACH. And we compare simulated by this approach fire carbon emissions with the fire emissions from GFED. Global vegetation models often use prescribed land cover maps. The simulated in the JSBACH vegetation biomass and thus the simulated fire carbon emissions critically depend on the land cover distribution. In our study we derive fire carbon emissions using two different land cover parameterizations, based on two different satellite datasets. We will present the results obtained from simulations using the JSBACH standard MODIS based vegetation distribution and compare them to the results derived using the recently released ESA CCI land cover satellite product to demonstrate the sensitivity of simulated fire carbon emissions to the underlying land cover

  9. Role of Pakistan in Global Climate Change through Greenhouse Gas Emissions (GHGs)

    OpenAIRE

    Wajeeha Malik; Hajra Shahid; Rabeea Zafar; Zaheer Uddin; Zafar Wazir; Zubair Anwar; Jabar Zaman Khan Khattak; Syed Shahid Ali

    2012-01-01

    The increasing concentration of Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) is warming the earth’s atmosphere and the phenomenon is known as Climate Change or Global Warming. The major factors contributing to the global climate change include polluted emissions by excessive burning of fossil fuels and deforestation. Pakistan contributes very little to the overall Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions however it remains severely impacted by the negative effects of climate change. Pakistan, in particular is estimated to ...

  10. A multiyear, global gridded fossil fuel CO2 emission data product: Evaluation and analysis of results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asefi-Najafabady, S.; Rayner, P. J.; Gurney, K. R.; McRobert, A.; Song, Y.; Coltin, K.; Huang, J.; Elvidge, C.; Baugh, K.

    2014-09-01

    High-resolution, global quantification of fossil fuel CO2 emissions is emerging as a critical need in carbon cycle science and climate policy. We build upon a previously developed fossil fuel data assimilation system (FFDAS) for estimating global high-resolution fossil fuel CO2 emissions. We have improved the underlying observationally based data sources, expanded the approach through treatment of separate emitting sectors including a new pointwise database of global power plants, and extended the results to cover a 1997 to 2010 time series at a spatial resolution of 0.1°. Long-term trend analysis of the resulting global emissions shows subnational spatial structure in large active economies such as the United States, China, and India. These three countries, in particular, show different long-term trends and exploration of the trends in nighttime lights, and population reveal a decoupling of population and emissions at the subnational level. Analysis of shorter-term variations reveals the impact of the 2008-2009 global financial crisis with widespread negative emission anomalies across the U.S. and Europe. We have used a center of mass (CM) calculation as a compact metric to express the time evolution of spatial patterns in fossil fuel CO2 emissions. The global emission CM has moved toward the east and somewhat south between 1997 and 2010, driven by the increase in emissions in China and South Asia over this time period. Analysis at the level of individual countries reveals per capita CO2 emission migration in both Russia and India. The per capita emission CM holds potential as a way to succinctly analyze subnational shifts in carbon intensity over time. Uncertainties are generally lower than the previous version of FFDAS due mainly to an improved nightlight data set.

  11. Estimated HCFC-22 emissions for 1990-2050 in China and the increasing contribution to global emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Zhifang; Bie, Pengju; Wang, Ziyuan; Zhang, Zhaoyang; Jiang, Hanyu; Xu, Weiguang; Zhang, Jianbo; Hu, Jianxin

    2016-05-01

    Chlorodifluoromethane (CHClF2, HCFC-22) is a widely used refrigerant and foaming agent that is not only an ozone-depleting substance (ozone depletion potential (ODP), 0.04) but also a greenhouse gas (global warming potential (GWP), 1780). A comprehensive historical emission inventory for 1990-2014 was produced using a bottom-up method, and a projection through to 2050 was made for China. The results demonstrated that historical emissions increased sharply from 0.2 Gg/yr in 1990 to 127.2 Gg/yr in 2014. Room air-conditioners (RACs), industrial and commercial refrigeration (ICR), and extruded polystyrene (XPS) were three primary emission sources, and accounted for an average of 95.4% of the total emissions over the period studied. The percentage of global HCFC-22 emissions originating from China significantly increased from 0.1% in 1990 to 31.6% in 2012, with an average growth rate of 1.4% per year. Under the Montreal Protocol phasing-out (MPPO) scenario, future emissions were expected to reach a peak of 133.5 Gg/yr in 2016 and then continuously decline to 10.2 Gg/yr in 2050. The accumulative reduction for 2015-2050 would be 5533.8 Gg (equivalent to 221.4 CFC-11-eq Gg and 9850.1 CO2-eq Tg), which is approximately equivalent to the total CO2 emission for China in 2012 (9900 Tg) (Olivier et al., 2013), compared with the no Montreal Protocol scenario (NMP). Under the MPPO scenario, two cases were analyzed to explore the future emission ranges in China. A comparison between the two cases implied that the choice of emission reduction policy will have a considerable impact on HCFC-22 emissions.

  12. The impact of global aviation NOx emissions on tropospheric composition changes from 2005 to 2011

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wasiuk, D. K.; Khan, M. A. H.; Shallcross, D. E.; Lowenberg, M. H.

    2016-09-01

    The impact of aviation NOx emissions from 2005 to 2011 on the chemical composition of the atmosphere has been investigated on the basis of integrations of the 3-D global chemical and transport model, STOCHEM-CRI with the novel CRIv2-R5 chemistry scheme. A base case simulation without aircraft NOx emissions and integrations with NOx emissions from aircraft are inter-compared. The sensitivity of the global atmosphere to varying the quantity and the geographical distribution of the global annual aviation NOx emissions is assessed by performing, for the first time, a series of integrations based on changing the total mass and distribution of aircraft NOx emissions derived from air traffic movements recorded between 2005 and 2011. The emissions of NOx from the global fleet based on actual records of air traffic movements between 2005 and 2011 increased the global tropospheric annual mean burden of O3 by 1.0 Tg and decreased the global tropospheric annual mean burden of CH4 by 2.5 Tg. The net NOy and O3 production increases by 0.5% and 1%, respectively between 2005 and 2011 in total. At cruise altitude, the absolute increase in the modelled O3 mixing ratios is found to be up to 0.7 ppb between 2005 and 2011 at 25°N-50°N.

  13. Deep CO2 emission reductions in a global bottom-up model approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Deetman, Sebastiaan; Hof, Andries; van Vuuren, Detlef P.

    2015-01-01

    Most studies that explore deep GHG emission reduction scenarios assume that climate goals are reached by implementing least-cost emission mitigation options, typically by implementing a global carbon tax. Although such a method provides insight into total mitigation costs, it does not provide much i

  14. Whistlers and audio-frequency emissions monthly summaries of whistlers and emissions for the period July 1957 - December 1958

    CERN Document Server

    Morgan, M G

    1965-01-01

    Annals of the International Geophysical Year, Volume 37: Whistlers and Audio-Frequency Emissions presents the principal results obtained in Whistlers-East synoptic program publications. Although whistlers can be observed at any time of day, it is found that they occur primarily at night. The greatest incidence of whistlers during the International Geophysical Year (IGY) period occurred in both hemispheres in the geomagnetic latitude range 50-60ʻ. The day-to-day correlation of whistler activity at geomagnetically conjugate stations was sometimes very low and sometimes remarkably high. This book

  15. Options for utilizing the CDM for global emission reductions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Butzengeiger-Geyer, Sonja; Castro, Paula; Harthan, Ralph O.; Hayashi, Daisuke; Healy, Sean; Maribu, Karl Magnus; Michaelowa, Axel; Okubo, Yuri; Schneider, Lambert; Storroe, Ingunn [Zuerich Univ. (Switzerland); Oeko-Institut e.V., Berlin (Germany); Perspectives GmbH, Hamburg (Germany); Point Carbon A/S, Oslo (Norway)

    2010-11-15

    The study describes and discusses in detail how four CDM reform alternatives, namely discounting of emission reductions, ambitious baselines, purchase and cancellation of CERs and reinvestment of CER levies, could be integrated in a Post-2012 climate regime. The study assesses these alternatives, according to their impacts on GHG emission reductions, contribution to sustainable development, cost-efficiency, technical feasibility, incentives and distributional effects as well as negotiability. The study shows that the introduction of discounting and ambitious baselines is technically feasible but politically a massive challenge. With the help of an economic model the study shows that the introduction of reform alternatives increases the amount of emission reductions but in comparison to the current CDM the impact is rather limited. But a CDM reform can in any case increase the credibility and improve the environmental integrity of the mechanism. (orig.)

  16. Global emission projections for the transportation sector using dynamic technology modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, F.; Winijkul, E.; Streets, D. G.; Lu, Z.; Bond, T. C.; Zhang, Y.

    2014-06-01

    In this study, global emissions of gases and particles from the transportation sector are projected from the year 2010 to 2050. The Speciated Pollutant Emission Wizard (SPEW)-Trend model, a dynamic model that links the emitter population to its emission characteristics, is used to project emissions from on-road vehicles and non-road engines. Unlike previous models of global emission estimates, SPEW-Trend incorporates considerable detail on the technology stock and builds explicit relationships between socioeconomic drivers and technological changes, such that the vehicle fleet and the vehicle technology shares change dynamically in response to economic development. Emissions from shipping, aviation, and rail are estimated based on other studies so that the final results encompass the entire transportation sector. The emission projections are driven by four commonly-used IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) scenarios (A1B, A2, B1, and B2). With global fossil-fuel use (oil and coal) in the transportation sector in the range of 128-171 EJ across the four scenarios, global emissions are projected to be 101-138 Tg of carbon monoxide (CO), 44-54 Tg of nitrogen oxides (NOx), 14-18 Tg of non-methane total hydrocarbons (THC), and 3.6-4.4 Tg of particulate matter (PM) in the year 2030. At the global level, a common feature of the emission scenarios is a projected decline in emissions during the first one or two decades (2010-2030), because the effects of stringent emission standards offset the growth in fuel use. Emissions increase slightly in some scenarios after 2030, because of the fast growth of on-road vehicles with lax or no emission standards in Africa and increasing emissions from non-road gasoline engines and shipping. On-road vehicles and non-road engines contribute the most to global CO and THC emissions, while on-road vehicles and shipping contribute the most to NOx and PM emissions. At the regional level, Latin America and East Asia are the two

  17. Global emission projections for the transportation sector using dynamic technology modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Yan

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available In this study, global emissions of gases and particles from the transportation sector are projected from the year 2010 to 2050. The Speciated Pollutant Emission Wizard (SPEW-Trend model, a dynamic model that links the emitter population to its emission characteristics, is used to project emissions from on-road vehicles and non-road engines. Unlike previous models of global emission estimates, SPEW-Trend incorporates considerable details on the technology stock and builds explicit relationships between socioeconomic drivers and technological changes, such that the vehicle fleet and the vehicle technology shares change dynamically in response to economic development. Emissions from shipping, aviation, and rail are estimated based on other studies so that the final results encompass the entire transportation sector. The emission projections are driven by four commonly-used IPCC scenarios (A1B, A2, B1, and B2. We project that global fossil-fuel use (oil and coal in the transportation sector will be in the range of 3.0–4.0 Gt across the four scenarios in the year 2030. Corresponding global emissions are projected to be 101–138 Tg of carbon monoxide (CO, 44–54 Tg of nitrogen oxides (NOx, 14–18 Tg of total hydrocarbons (THC, and 3.6–4.4 Tg of particulate matter (PM. At the global level, a common feature of the emission scenarios is a projected decline in emissions during the first one or two decades (2010–2030, because the effects of stringent emission standards offset the growth in fuel use. Emissions increase slightly in some scenarios after 2030, because of the fast growth of on-road vehicles with lax or no emission standards in Africa and increasing emissions from non-road gasoline engines and shipping. On-road vehicles and non-road engines contribute the most to global CO and THC emissions, while on-road vehicles and shipping contribute the most to NOx and PM emissions. At the regional level, Latin America and East Asia are the two

  18. Global Emissions of Terpenoid VOCs from Terrestrial Vegetation in the Last Millennium

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Acosta Navarro, J. C.; Smolander, S.; Struthers, H.; Zorita, E.; Ekman, A. M.; Kaplan, J. O.; Guenther, Alex B.; Arneth, A.; Riipinen, I.

    2014-06-16

    We investigated the millennial variability of global BVOC emissions by using two independent numerical models: The Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGAN), for isoprene, monoterpene and sesquiterpene and Lund-Potsdam-Jena General Ecosystem Simulator (LPJ8 GUESS), for isoprene and monoterpenes. We found the millennial trends of global isoprene emissions to be mostly affected by land cover and atmospheric carbon dioxide changes, whereas monoterpene and sesquiterpene emission were dominated by temperature change. Isoprene emissions declined substantially in regions with large and rapid land cover change. In addition, isoprene emission sensitivity to drought proved to have signicant short term global effects. By the end of the past millennium MEGAN isoprene emissions were 634 TgC yr-1 (13% and 19% less than during during 1750-1850 and 1000- 15 1200, respectively) and LPJ-GUESS emissions were 323 TgC yr-1 (15% and 20% less than during 1750-1850 and 1000-1200, respectively). Monoterpene emissions were 89 TgC yr-1 (10% and 6% higher than during 1750-1850 and 1000-1200, respectively) in MEGAN, and 24 TgC yr-1 (2% higher and 5% 19 20 less than during 1750-1850 and 1000-1200, respectively) in LPJ-GUESS. MEGAN sesquiterpene emissions were 36 TgC yr-1 (10% and 4% higher than during1750-1850 and 1000-1200, respectively). Although both models capture similar We investigated the millennial variability of global BVOC emissions by using two independent numerical models: The Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGAN), for isoprene, monoterpene and sesquiterpene and Lund-Potsdam-Jena General Ecosystem Simulator (LPJ8GUESS), for isoprene and monoterpenes. We found the millennial trends ofglobal isoprene emissions to be mostly a*ected by land cover and atmospheric carbon dioxide changes, whereas monoterpene and sesquiterpene emission were dominated by temperature change. Isoprene emissions declined substantially in regions with large and rapid

  19. Enhanced marine sulphur emissions offset global warming and impact rainfall.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grandey, B S; Wang, C

    2015-08-21

    Artificial fertilisation of the ocean has been proposed as a possible geoengineering method for removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. The associated increase in marine primary productivity may lead to an increase in emissions of dimethyl sulphide (DMS), the primary source of sulphate aerosol over remote ocean regions, potentially causing direct and cloud-related indirect aerosol effects on climate. This pathway from ocean fertilisation to aerosol induced cooling of the climate may provide a basis for solar radiation management (SRM) geoengineering. In this study, we investigate the transient climate impacts of two emissions scenarios: an RCP4.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5) control; and an idealised scenario, based on RCP4.5, in which DMS emissions are substantially enhanced over ocean areas. We use mini-ensembles of a coupled atmosphere-ocean configuration of CESM1(CAM5) (Community Earth System Model version 1, with the Community Atmosphere Model version 5). We find that the cooling effect associated with enhanced DMS emissions beneficially offsets greenhouse gas induced warming across most of the world. However, the rainfall response may adversely affect water resources, potentially impacting human livelihoods. These results demonstrate that changes in marine phytoplankton activity may lead to a mixture of positive and negative impacts on the climate.

  20. Global cost estimates of reducing carbon emissions through avoided deforestation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andrasko, K. [U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC (United States); Beach, R. [RTI International, Research Triangle Park, NC (United States); Kindermann, G. [International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg (Austria); Obersteiner, M. [International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg (Austria); Rametsteiner, E. [International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg (Austria); Sathaye, J. [Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA (United States); Schlamadinger, B. [TerraCarbon, Graz, (Austria); Sohngen, B. [Department of Agricultural, Environmental, and Development Economics, Ohio State University, Columbus, OH (United States); Wunder, S. [Center for International Forestry Research, Belem-PA (Brazil)

    2008-07-15

    Tropical deforestation is estimated to cause about one-quarter of anthropogenic carbon emissions, loss of biodiversity, and other environmental services. United Nations Framework Convention for Climate Change talks are now considering mechanisms for avoiding deforestation (AD), but the economic potential of AD has yet to be addressed. We use three economic models of glboal land use and management to analyze the potential contribution of AD activities to reduced greenhouse gas emissions. AD activities are found to be a competitive, low-cost abatement option. A program providing a 10% reduction in deforestation from 2005 to 2030 could provide 0.3-0.6 Gt (1 Gt = 1 x 105 g) CO2{center_dot}yr-1 in emission reductions and would require $0.4 billion to $1.7 billion{center_dot}yr-1 for 30 years. A 50% reduction in deforestation from 2005 to 2030 could provide 1.5-2.7 Gt CO2{center_dot}yr-1 in emission reductions and would require $17.2 billion to $28.0 billion{center_dot}yr-1. Finally, some caveats to the analysis that could increase costs of AD programs are described.

  1. Atmospheric constraints on global emissions of methane from plants

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Houweling, S.; Rockmann, T.; Aben, I.; Keppler, F.; Krol, M.C.; Meirink, J.F.; Dlugokencky, E.J.; Frankenberg, C.

    2006-01-01

    We investigate whether a recently proposed large source of CH4 from vegetation can be reconciled with atmospheric measurements. Atmospheric transport model simulations with and without vegetation emissions are compared with background CH4, d13C-CH4 and satellite measurements. For present–day CH4 we

  2. Atmospheric constraints on global emissions of methane from plants

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Houweling, S.; Rockmann, T.; Aben, I.; Keppler, F.; Krol, M.; Meirink, J.F.; Dlugokencky, E.J.; Frankenberg, C.

    2006-01-01

    We investigate whether a recently proposed large source of CH4 from vegetation can be reconciled with atmospheric measurements. Atmospheric transport model simulations with and without vegetation emissions are compared with background CH4, delta C-13-CH4 and satellite measurements. For present - day

  3. Enhanced marine sulphur emissions offset global warming and impact rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grandey, B. S.; Wang, C.

    2015-08-01

    Artificial fertilisation of the ocean has been proposed as a possible geoengineering method for removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. The associated increase in marine primary productivity may lead to an increase in emissions of dimethyl sulphide (DMS), the primary source of sulphate aerosol over remote ocean regions, potentially causing direct and cloud-related indirect aerosol effects on climate. This pathway from ocean fertilisation to aerosol induced cooling of the climate may provide a basis for solar radiation management (SRM) geoengineering. In this study, we investigate the transient climate impacts of two emissions scenarios: an RCP4.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5) control; and an idealised scenario, based on RCP4.5, in which DMS emissions are substantially enhanced over ocean areas. We use mini-ensembles of a coupled atmosphere-ocean configuration of CESM1(CAM5) (Community Earth System Model version 1, with the Community Atmosphere Model version 5). We find that the cooling effect associated with enhanced DMS emissions beneficially offsets greenhouse gas induced warming across most of the world. However, the rainfall response may adversely affect water resources, potentially impacting human livelihoods. These results demonstrate that changes in marine phytoplankton activity may lead to a mixture of positive and negative impacts on the climate.

  4. State of the Climate Monthly Overview - Global El Niño/Southern Oscillation

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The State of the Climate is a collection of periodic summaries recapping climate-related occurrences on both a global and national scale. The State of the Climate...

  5. MODIS/TERRA MOD13A3 Vegetation Indices Monthly L3 Global 1km

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Global MODIS vegetation indices are designed to provide consistent spatial and temporal comparisons of vegetation conditions. Blue, red, and near-infrared...

  6. MODIS/AQUA MYD13A3 Vegetation Indices Monthly L3 Global 1km

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Global MODIS vegetation indices are designed to provide consistent spatial and temporal comparisons of vegetation conditions. Blue, red, and near-infrared...

  7. Vegetation Index and Phenology (VIP) Vegetation Indices Monthly Global 0.05Deg CMG

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — The NASA MEaSUREs Vegetation Index and Phenology (VIP) global datasets were created using surface reflectance data from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer...

  8. Global warming and its implication to emission reduction strategies for residential buildings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Xiaoming; Chen, Dong; Ren, Zhengen [CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship and CSIRO Ecosystem Sciences, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), P.O. Box 56, Graham Road, Highett, Victoria 3190 (Australia)

    2011-04-15

    Carbon emission reduction schemes by improving residential building energy performance are often developed and assessed upon the assumption of current or stationary climates. This study investigated the heating and cooling (H-C) energy requirements and corresponding carbon emissions of residential houses in different climatic conditions in relation to global warming. This included assessing and quantifying the efficacy of emission reduction schemes based on emission reduction capacity (ERC). ERC represents the percentage of projected carbon emission reduction under changing climate in a specific year compared to the expected reduction by a scheme at current or stationary climates. It is shown that in a heating-dominated region with a cold climate or temperate climate with cold winter, ERC is projected to increase (or the projected emission reduction is higher than the expected reduction under the emission reduction scheme) in the presence of global warming. In contrast, in a cooling-dominated region with a hot dry or hot humid climate or an H-C balanced temperate climate, ERC is projected to decline. This implies that emission reductions will be lower than those initially targeted by the emission reduction scheme without consideration of global warming. Additionally, to reflect the changing carbon emission over years due to climate change, the average emission reduction capacity (AERC) was also proposed for the assessment of reduction schemes. It was concluded that the design and assessment of carbon emission reduction schemes for residential buildings need to move beyond its assumptions of a current or stationary climate to take into account climate change impacts. (author)

  9. Analysis of emission data from global commercial aviation: 2004 and 2006

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. T. Wilkerson

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available The global commercial aircraft fleet in 2006 flew more than 31 million flights, burned nearly 190 million metric tons of fuel, and covered 38 billion kilometers. This activity emitted substantial amounts of fossil-fuel combustion products within the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere that affect atmospheric composition and climate. The emissions products, such as carbon monoxide, carbon dioxide, oxides of nitrogen, sulfur compounds, and particulate matter, are not emitted uniformly over the Earth, so understanding the temporal and spatial distributions is an important component for modeling aviation climate impacts. Here, we analyze global commercial aircraft emission data for 2004 and 2006. Data, provided by the Volpe National Transportation Systems Center, were computed using the Federal Aviation Administration's Aviation Environmental Design Tool. For both years, analysis of flight data shows 93 percent of fuel was burned in the Northern Hemisphere, 69 percent between 30 N and 60 N latitudes; 77 (75 percent was burned above 7 km in 2004 (2006. This activity led to 177 (162 Tg of carbon from CO2 globally in 2004 (2006, with half being emitted over three dominant regions: United States, Europe, East Asia. The difference between 2004 and 2006 is a result of fewer flights in 2006 and the methodology used to compute fuel burn and emissions from those flights. We also show that despite receiving only a few percent of global emissions, the Arctic receives a concentration of emissions of the same order of magnitude as the global average. The following is a summary of this data which illustrates the global and regional aviation emissions footprints for 2004 and 2006, and provides temporal and spatial distribution statistics of several emissions constituents. Finally, we show that 87 (85 percent of all flights in 2004 (2006 are short-haul missions, yet those flights are responsible for only 38 (39 percent of total emissions.

  10. Upward revision of global fossil fuel methane emissions based on isotope database.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwietzke, Stefan; Sherwood, Owen A; Bruhwiler, Lori M P; Miller, John B; Etiope, Giuseppe; Dlugokencky, Edward J; Michel, Sylvia Englund; Arling, Victoria A; Vaughn, Bruce H; White, James W C; Tans, Pieter P

    2016-10-06

    Methane has the second-largest global radiative forcing impact of anthropogenic greenhouse gases after carbon dioxide, but our understanding of the global atmospheric methane budget is incomplete. The global fossil fuel industry (production and usage of natural gas, oil and coal) is thought to contribute 15 to 22 per cent of methane emissions to the total atmospheric methane budget. However, questions remain regarding methane emission trends as a result of fossil fuel industrial activity and the contribution to total methane emissions of sources from the fossil fuel industry and from natural geological seepage, which are often co-located. Here we re-evaluate the global methane budget and the contribution of the fossil fuel industry to methane emissions based on long-term global methane and methane carbon isotope records. We compile the largest isotopic methane source signature database so far, including fossil fuel, microbial and biomass-burning methane emission sources. We find that total fossil fuel methane emissions (fossil fuel industry plus natural geological seepage) are not increasing over time, but are 60 to 110 per cent greater than current estimates owing to large revisions in isotope source signatures. We show that this is consistent with the observed global latitudinal methane gradient. After accounting for natural geological methane seepage, we find that methane emissions from natural gas, oil and coal production and their usage are 20 to 60 per cent greater than inventories. Our findings imply a greater potential for the fossil fuel industry to mitigate anthropogenic climate forcing, but we also find that methane emissions from natural gas as a fraction of production have declined from approximately 8 per cent to approximately 2 per cent over the past three decades.

  11. Upward revision of global fossil fuel methane emissions based on isotope database

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwietzke, Stefan; Sherwood, Owen A.; Bruhwiler, Lori M. P.; Miller, John B.; Etiope, Giuseppe; Dlugokencky, Edward J.; Michel, Sylvia Englund; Arling, Victoria A.; Vaughn, Bruce H.; White, James W. C.; Tans, Pieter P.

    2016-10-01

    Methane has the second-largest global radiative forcing impact of anthropogenic greenhouse gases after carbon dioxide, but our understanding of the global atmospheric methane budget is incomplete. The global fossil fuel industry (production and usage of natural gas, oil and coal) is thought to contribute 15 to 22 per cent of methane emissions to the total atmospheric methane budget. However, questions remain regarding methane emission trends as a result of fossil fuel industrial activity and the contribution to total methane emissions of sources from the fossil fuel industry and from natural geological seepage, which are often co-located. Here we re-evaluate the global methane budget and the contribution of the fossil fuel industry to methane emissions based on long-term global methane and methane carbon isotope records. We compile the largest isotopic methane source signature database so far, including fossil fuel, microbial and biomass-burning methane emission sources. We find that total fossil fuel methane emissions (fossil fuel industry plus natural geological seepage) are not increasing over time, but are 60 to 110 per cent greater than current estimates owing to large revisions in isotope source signatures. We show that this is consistent with the observed global latitudinal methane gradient. After accounting for natural geological methane seepage, we find that methane emissions from natural gas, oil and coal production and their usage are 20 to 60 per cent greater than inventories. Our findings imply a greater potential for the fossil fuel industry to mitigate anthropogenic climate forcing, but we also find that methane emissions from natural gas as a fraction of production have declined from approximately 8 per cent to approximately 2 per cent over the past three decades.

  12. Global mercury emissions to the atmosphere from anthropogenic and natural sources

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Pirrone

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper provides an up-to-date assessment of global mercury emissions from anthropogenic and natural sources. On an annual basis, natural sources account for 5207 Mg of mercury released to the global atmosphere, including the contribution from re-emission processes, which are emissions of previously deposited mercury originating from anthropogenic and natural sources, and primary emissions from natural reservoirs. Anthropogenic sources, which include a large number of industrial point sources, are estimated to account for 2320 Mg of mercury emitted annually. The major contributions are from fossil-fuel fired power plants (810 Mg yr−1, artisanal small scale gold mining (400 Mg yr−1, non-ferrous metals manufacturing (310 Mg yr−1, cement production (236 Mg yr−1, waste disposal (187 Mg yr−1 and caustic soda production (163 Mg yr−1. Therefore, our current estimate of global mercury emissions suggests that the overall contribution from natural sources (primary emissions+re-emissions and anthropogenic sources is nearly 7527 Mg per year, the uncertainty associated with these estimates are related to the typology of emission sources and source regions.

  13. Global mercury emissions to the atmosphere from anthropogenic and natural sources

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Pirrone

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper provides an up-to-date assessment of global mercury emissions from anthropogenic and natural sources. On an annual basis, natural sources account for 5207 Mg of mercury released to the global atmosphere, including the contribution from re-emission processes, which are emissions of previously deposited mercury originating from anthropogenic and natural sources, and primary emissions from natural reservoirs. Anthropogenic sources, which include a large number of industrial point sources, are estimated to account for 2320 Mg of mercury emitted annually. The major contributions are from fossil-fuel fired power plants (810 Mg yr−1, artisanal small scale gold mining (400 Mg yr−1, non-ferrous metals manufacturing (310 Mg yr−1, cement production (236 Mg yr−1, waste disposal (187 Mg yr−1 and caustic soda production (163 Mg yr−1. Therefore, our current estimate of global mercury emissions suggests that the overall contribution from natural sources (primary emissions + re-emissions and anthropogenic sources is nearly 7527 Mg per year, the uncertainty associated with these estimates are related to the typology of emission sources and source regions.

  14. Global mercury emissions to the atmosphere from anthropogenic and natural sources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pirrone, N.; Cinnirella, S.; Feng, X.; Finkelman, R. B.; Friedli, H. R.; Leaner, J.; Mason, R.; Mukherjee, A. B.; Stracher, G. B.; Streets, D. G.; Telmer, K.

    2010-07-01

    This paper provides an up-to-date assessment of global mercury emissions from anthropogenic and natural sources. On an annual basis, natural sources account for 5207 Mg of mercury released to the global atmosphere, including the contribution from re-emission processes, which are emissions of previously deposited mercury originating from anthropogenic and natural sources, and primary emissions from natural reservoirs. Anthropogenic sources, which include a large number of industrial point sources, are estimated to account for 2320 Mg of mercury emitted annually. The major contributions are from fossil-fuel fired power plants (810 Mg yr-1), artisanal small scale gold mining (400 Mg yr-1), non-ferrous metals manufacturing (310 Mg yr-1), cement production (236 Mg yr-1), waste disposal (187 Mg yr-1) and caustic soda production (163 Mg yr-1). Therefore, our current estimate of global mercury emissions suggests that the overall contribution from natural sources (primary emissions + re-emissions) and anthropogenic sources is nearly 7527 Mg per year, the uncertainty associated with these estimates are related to the typology of emission sources and source regions.

  15. Embodiment Analysis for Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Chinese Economy Based on Global Thermodynamic Potentials

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lijie Wang

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper considers the Global Thermodynamic Potential (GTP indicator to perform a unified assessment of greenhouse gas (GHG emissions, and to systematically reveal the emission embodiment in the production, consumption, and international trade of the Chinese economy in 2007 as the most recent year available with input-output table and updated inventory data. The results show that the estimated total direct GHG emissions by the Chinese economy in 2007 amount to 10,657.5 Mt CO2-eq by the GTPs with 40.6% from CH4 emissions in magnitude of the same importance as CO2 emissions. The five sectors of Electric Power/Steam and Hot Water Production and Supply, Smelting and Pressing of Ferrous and Nonferrous Metals, Nonmetal Mineral Products, Agriculture, and Coal Mining and Dressing, are responsible for 83.3% of the total GHG emissions with different emission structures. The demands of coal and coal-electricity determine the structure of emission embodiment to an essential extent. The Construction sector holds the top GHG emissions embodied in both domestic production and domestic consumption. The GHG emission embodied in gross capital formation is more than those in other components of final demand characterized by extensive investment and limited household consumption. China is a net exporter of embodied GHG emissions, with a remarkable share of direct emission induced by international trade, such as textile products, industrial raw materials, and primary machinery and equipment products exports. The fractions of CH4 in the component of embodied GHG emissions in the final demand are much greater than those fractions calculated by the Global Warming Potentials, which highlight the importance of CH4 emissions for the case of China and indicate the essential effect of CH4 emissions on global climate change. To understand the full context to achieve GHG emission mitigation, this study provides a new insight to address China’s GHG emissions status and

  16. Global fire emissions and the contribution of deforestation, savanna, forest, agricultural, and peat fires (1997–2009

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. R. van der Werf

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available New burned area datasets and top-down constraints from atmospheric concentration measurements of pyrogenic gases have decreased the large uncertainty in fire emissions estimates. However, significant gaps remain in our understanding of the contribution of deforestation, savanna, forest, agricultural waste, and peat fires to total global fire emissions. Here we used a revised version of the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford-Approach (CASA biogeochemical model and improved satellite-derived estimates of area burned, fire activity, and plant productivity to calculate fire emissions for the 1997–2009 period on a 0.5° spatial resolution with a monthly time step. For November 2000 onwards, estimates were based on burned area, active fire detections, and plant productivity from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS sensor. For the partitioning we focused on the MODIS era. We used burned area estimates based on Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM Visible and Infrared Scanner (VIRS and Along-Track Scanning Radiometer (ATSR active fire data prior to MODIS (1997–2000 and Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR derived estimates of plant productivity during the same period. Average global fire carbon emissions were 2.0 Pg yr−1 with significant interannual variability during 1997–2001 (2.8 Pg yr−1 in 1998 and 1.6 Pg yr−1 in 2001. Emissions during 2002–2007 were relatively constant (around 2.1 Pg yr−1 before declining in 2008 (1.7 Pg yr−1 and 2009 (1.5 Pg yr−1 partly due to lower deforestation fire emissions in South America and tropical Asia. During 2002–2007, emissions were highly variable from year-to-year in many regions, including in boreal Asia, South America, and Indonesia, but these regional differences cancelled out at a global level. During the MODIS era (2001–2009, most fire carbon emissions were from fires in grasslands and savannas (44

  17. Global fire emissions and the contribution of deforestation, savanna, forest, agricultural, and peat fires (1997-2009)

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Werf, G.; Randerson, J. T.; Giglio, L.; Collatz, G. J.; Mu, M.; Kasibhatla, P. S.; Morton, D. C.; Defries, R. S.; Jin, Y.; van Leeuwen, T. T.

    2010-12-01

    New burned area datasets and top-down constraints from atmospheric concentration measurements of pyrogenic gases have decreased the large uncertainty in fire emissions estimates. However, significant gaps remain in our understanding of the contribution of deforestation, savanna, forest, agricultural waste, and peat fires to total global fire emissions. Here we used a revised version of the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford-Approach (CASA) biogeochemical model and improved satellite-derived estimates of area burned, fire activity, and plant productivity to calculate fire emissions for the 1997-2009 period on a 0.5° spatial resolution with a monthly time step. For November 2000 onwards, estimates were based on burned area, active fire detections, and plant productivity from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor. For the partitioning we focused on the MODIS era. We used burned area estimates based on Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Visible and Infrared Scanner (VIRS) and Along-Track Scanning Radiometer (ATSR) active fire data prior to MODIS (1997-2000) and Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) derived estimates of plant productivity during the same period. Average global fire carbon emissions were 2.0 Pg yr-1 with significant interannual variability during 1997-2001 (2.8 Pg/yr in 1998 and 1.6 Pg/yr in 2001). Emissions during 2002-2007 were relatively constant (around 2.1 Pg/yr) before declining in 2008 (1.7 Pg/yr) and 2009 (1.5 Pg/yr) partly due to lower deforestation fire emissions in South America and tropical Asia. During 2002-2007, emissions were highly variable from year-to-year in many regions, including in boreal Asia, South America, and Indonesia, but these regional differences cancelled out at a global level. During the MODIS era (2001-2009), most fire carbon emissions were from fires in grasslands and savannas (44%) with smaller contributions from tropical deforestation and degradation fires (20%), woodland fires

  18. Greenhouse-gas emission targets for limiting global warming to 2 degrees C.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meinshausen, Malte; Meinshausen, Nicolai; Hare, William; Raper, Sarah C B; Frieler, Katja; Knutti, Reto; Frame, David J; Allen, Myles R

    2009-04-30

    More than 100 countries have adopted a global warming limit of 2 degrees C or below (relative to pre-industrial levels) as a guiding principle for mitigation efforts to reduce climate change risks, impacts and damages. However, the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions corresponding to a specified maximum warming are poorly known owing to uncertainties in the carbon cycle and the climate response. Here we provide a comprehensive probabilistic analysis aimed at quantifying GHG emission budgets for the 2000-50 period that would limit warming throughout the twenty-first century to below 2 degrees C, based on a combination of published distributions of climate system properties and observational constraints. We show that, for the chosen class of emission scenarios, both cumulative emissions up to 2050 and emission levels in 2050 are robust indicators of the probability that twenty-first century warming will not exceed 2 degrees C relative to pre-industrial temperatures. Limiting cumulative CO(2) emissions over 2000-50 to 1,000 Gt CO(2) yields a 25% probability of warming exceeding 2 degrees C-and a limit of 1,440 Gt CO(2) yields a 50% probability-given a representative estimate of the distribution of climate system properties. As known 2000-06 CO(2) emissions were approximately 234 Gt CO(2), less than half the proven economically recoverable oil, gas and coal reserves can still be emitted up to 2050 to achieve such a goal. Recent G8 Communiqués envisage halved global GHG emissions by 2050, for which we estimate a 12-45% probability of exceeding 2 degrees C-assuming 1990 as emission base year and a range of published climate sensitivity distributions. Emissions levels in 2020 are a less robust indicator, but for the scenarios considered, the probability of exceeding 2 degrees C rises to 53-87% if global GHG emissions are still more than 25% above 2000 levels in 2020.

  19. Decadal changes in global surface NOx emissions from multi-constituent satellite data assimilation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miyazaki, Kazuyuki; Eskes, Henk; Sudo, Kengo; Folkert Boersma, K.; Bowman, Kevin; Kanaya, Yugo

    2017-01-01

    Global surface emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) over a 10-year period (2005-2014) are estimated from an assimilation of multiple satellite data sets: tropospheric NO2 columns from Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI), Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment-2 (GOME-2), and Scanning Imaging Absorption Spectrometer for Atmospheric Chartography (SCIAMACHY), O3 profiles from Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES), CO profiles from Measurement of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT), and O3 and HNO3 profiles from Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) using an ensemble Kalman filter technique. Chemical concentrations of various species and emission sources of several precursors are simultaneously optimized. This is expected to improve the emission inversion because the emission estimates are influenced by biases in the modelled tropospheric chemistry, which can be partly corrected by also optimizing the concentrations. We present detailed distributions of the estimated emission distributions for all major regions, the diurnal and seasonal variability, and the evolution of these emissions over the 10-year period. The estimated regional total emissions show a strong positive trend over India (+29 % decade-1), China (+26 % decade-1), and the Middle East (+20 % decade-1), and a negative trend over the USA (-38 % decade-1), southern Africa (-8.2 % decade-1), and western Europe (-8.8 % decade-1). The negative trends in the USA and western Europe are larger during 2005-2010 relative to 2011-2014, whereas the trend in China becomes negative after 2011. The data assimilation also suggests a large uncertainty in anthropogenic and fire-related emission factors and an important underestimation of soil NOx sources in the emission inventories. Despite the large trends observed for individual regions, the global total emission is almost constant between 2005 (47.9 Tg N yr-1) and 2014 (47.5 Tg N yr-1).

  20. Emission scenarios for a global hydrogen economy and the consequences for global air pollution

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Ruijven, B.J.; Lamarque, J.F.; van Vuuren, D.P.; Kram, T.; Eerens, H.

    2011-01-01

    Hydrogen is named as possible energy carrier for future energy systems. However, the impact of large-scale hydrogen use on the atmosphere is uncertain. Application of hydrogen in clean fuel cells reduces emissions of air pollutants, but emissions from hydrogen production and leakages of molecular

  1. Emission scenarios for a global hydrogen economy and the consequences for global air pollution

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Ruijven, B.J.; Lamarque, J.F.; van Vuuren, D.P.; Kram, T.; Eerens, H.

    2011-01-01

    Hydrogen is named as possible energy carrier for future energy systems. However, the impact of large-scale hydrogen use on the atmosphere is uncertain. Application of hydrogen in clean fuel cells reduces emissions of air pollutants, but emissions from hydrogen production and leakages of molecular hy

  2. A global gas flaring black carbon emission rate dataset from 1994 to 2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Kan; Fu, Joshua S.

    2016-11-01

    Global flaring of associated petroleum gas is a potential emission source of particulate matters (PM) and could be notable in some specific regions that are in urgent need of mitigation. PM emitted from gas flaring is mainly in the form of black carbon (BC), which is a strong short-lived climate forcer. However, BC from gas flaring has been neglected in most global/regional emission inventories and is rarely considered in climate modeling. Here we present a global gas flaring BC emission rate dataset for the period 1994-2012 in a machine-readable format. We develop a region-dependent gas flaring BC emission factor database based on the chemical compositions of associated petroleum gas at various oil fields. Gas flaring BC emission rates are estimated using this emission factor database and flaring volumes retrieved from satellite imagery. Evaluation using a chemical transport model suggests that consideration of gas flaring emissions can improve model performance. This dataset will benefit and inform a broad range of research topics, e.g., carbon budget, air quality/climate modeling, and environmental/human exposure.

  3. Mapping the spatial distribution of global anthropogenic mercury atmospheric emission inventories

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Simon J.; Steenhuisen, Frits; Pacyna, Jozef M.; Pacyna, Elisabeth G.

    This paper describes the procedures employed to spatially distribute global inventories of anthropogenic emissions of mercury to the atmosphere, prepared by Pacyna, E.G., Pacyna, J.M., Steenhuisen, F., Wilson, S. [2006. Global anthropogenic mercury emission inventory for 2000. Atmospheric Environment, this issue, doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2006.03.041], and briefly discusses the results of this work. A new spatially distributed global emission inventory for the (nominal) year 2000, and a revised version of the 1995 inventory are presented. Emissions estimates for total mercury and major species groups are distributed within latitude/longitude-based grids with a resolution of 1×1 and 0.5×0.5°. A key component in the spatial distribution procedure is the use of population distribution as a surrogate parameter to distribute emissions from sources that cannot be accurately geographically located. In this connection, new gridded population datasets were prepared, based on the CEISIN GPW3 datasets (CIESIN, 2004. Gridded Population of the World (GPW), Version 3. Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University and Centro Internacional de Agricultura Tropical (CIAT). GPW3 data are available at http://beta.sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/gpw/index.jsp). The spatially distributed emissions inventories and population datasets prepared in the course of this work are available on the Internet at www.amap.no/Resources/HgEmissions/

  4. A human-scale perspective on global warming: Zero emission year and personal quotas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de la Fuente, Alberto; Rojas, Maisa; Mac Lean, Claudia

    2017-01-01

    This article builds on the premise that human consumption of goods, food and transport are the ultimate drivers of climate change. However, the nature of the climate change problem (well described as a tragedy of the commons) makes it difficult for individuals to recognise their personal duty to implement behavioural changes to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Consequently, this article aims to analyse the climate change issue from a human-scale perspective, in which each of us has a clearly defined personal quota of CO2 emissions that limits our activity and there is a finite time during which CO2 emissions must be eliminated to achieve the "well below 2°C" warming limit set by the Paris Agreement of 2015 (COP21). Thus, this work's primary contribution is to connect an equal per capita fairness approach to a global carbon budget, linking personal levels with planetary levels. Here, we show that a personal quota of 5.0 tons of CO2 yr-1 p-1 is a representative value for both past and future emissions; for this level of a constant per-capita emissions and without considering any mitigation, the global accumulated emissions compatible with the "well below 2°C" and 2°C targets will be exhausted by 2030 and 2050, respectively. These are references years that provide an order of magnitude of the time that is left to reverse the global warming trend. More realistic scenarios that consider a smooth transition toward a zero-emission world show that the global accumulated emissions compatible with the "well below 2°C" and 2°C targets will be exhausted by 2040 and 2080, respectively. Implications of this paper include a return to personal responsibility following equity principles among individuals, and a definition of boundaries to the personal emissions of CO2.

  5. A human-scale perspective on global warming: Zero emission year and personal quotas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rojas, Maisa; Mac Lean, Claudia

    2017-01-01

    This article builds on the premise that human consumption of goods, food and transport are the ultimate drivers of climate change. However, the nature of the climate change problem (well described as a tragedy of the commons) makes it difficult for individuals to recognise their personal duty to implement behavioural changes to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Consequently, this article aims to analyse the climate change issue from a human-scale perspective, in which each of us has a clearly defined personal quota of CO2 emissions that limits our activity and there is a finite time during which CO2 emissions must be eliminated to achieve the “well below 2°C” warming limit set by the Paris Agreement of 2015 (COP21). Thus, this work’s primary contribution is to connect an equal per capita fairness approach to a global carbon budget, linking personal levels with planetary levels. Here, we show that a personal quota of 5.0 tons of CO2 yr-1 p-1 is a representative value for both past and future emissions; for this level of a constant per-capita emissions and without considering any mitigation, the global accumulated emissions compatible with the “well below 2°C” and 2°C targets will be exhausted by 2030 and 2050, respectively. These are references years that provide an order of magnitude of the time that is left to reverse the global warming trend. More realistic scenarios that consider a smooth transition toward a zero-emission world show that the global accumulated emissions compatible with the “well below 2°C” and 2°C targets will be exhausted by 2040 and 2080, respectively. Implications of this paper include a return to personal responsibility following equity principles among individuals, and a definition of boundaries to the personal emissions of CO2. PMID:28628676

  6. Fuji global model simulations of world economy and CO[sub 2] emissions, 1990-2000

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Onishi, A. (Soka University Institute for Systems Science, Tokyo (Japan))

    1992-05-01

    The purpose of this paper is twofold: the one is to introduce the new generation FUGI global model whose design concepts are reflected by the recent advancement of life frontier sciences and AI oriented expert system in computer software technology. The other is to make projections of the world economy under alternative policy scenarios on cutbacks of CO[sub 2] emissions against global warming in order to assess impacts of global changes in environment on the development of the world economy using the new generation FUGI global model 8 refs., 6 tabs.

  7. Uncertainties in global aerosols and climate effects due to biofuel emissions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. K. Kodros

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Aerosol emissions from biofuel combustion impact both health and climate; however, while reducing emissions through improvements to combustion technologies will improve health, the net effect on climate is largely unconstrained. In this study, we examine sensitivities in global aerosol concentration, direct radiative climate effect, and cloud-albedo aerosol indirect climate effect to uncertainties in biofuel emission factors, optical mixing-state, and model nucleation and background SOA. We use the Goddard Earth Observing System global chemical-transport model (GEOS-Chem with TwO Moment Aerosol Sectional (TOMAS microphysics. The emission factors include: amount, composition, size and hygroscopicity, as well as optical mixing-state properties. We also evaluate emissions from domestic coal use, which is not biofuel but is also frequently emitted from homes. We estimate the direct radiative effect assuming different mixing states (internal, core-shell, and external with and without absorptive organic aerosol (brown carbon. We find the global-mean direct radiative effect of biofuel emissions ranges from −0.02 to +0.06 W m−2 across all simulation/mixing state combinations with regional effects in source regions ranging from −0.2 to +1.2 W m−2. The global-mean cloud-albedo aerosol indirect effect ranges from +0.01 to −0.02 W m−2 with regional effects in source regions ranging from −1.0 to −0.05 W m−2. The direct radiative effect is strongly dependent on uncertainties in emissions mass, composition, emissions aerosol size distributions and assumed optical mixing state, while the indirect effect is dependent on the emissions mass, emissions aerosol size distribution and the choice of model nucleation and secondary organic aerosol schemes. The sign and magnitude of these effects have a strong regional dependence. We conclude that the climate effects of biofuel aerosols are largely unconstrained, and the overall sign of the aerosol

  8. Dust emission: small-scale processes with global consequences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okin, Gregory S.; Bullard, Joanna E.; Reynolds, Richard L.; Ballantine, John-Andrew C.; Schepanski, Kerstin; Todd, Martin C.; Belnap, Jayne; Baddock, Matthew C.; Gill, Thomas E.; Miller, Mark E.

    2011-01-01

    Desert dust, both modern and ancient, is a critical component of the Earth system. Atmospheric dust has important effects on climate by changing the atmospheric radiation budget, while deposited dust influences biogeochemical cycles in the oceans and on land. Dust deposited on snow and ice decreases its albedo, allowing more light to be trapped at the surface, thus increasing the rate of melt and influencing energy budgets and river discharge. In the human realm, dust contributes to the transport of allergens and pathogens and when inhaled can cause or aggravate respiratory diseases. Dust storms also represent a significant hazard to road and air travel. Because it affects so many Earth processes, dust is studied from a variety of perspectives and at multiple scales, with various disciplines examining emissions for different purposes using disparate strategies. Thus, the range of objectives in studying dust, as well as experimental approaches and results, has not yet been systematically integrated. Key research questions surrounding the production and sources of dust could benefit from improved collaboration among different research communities. These questions involve the origins of dust, factors that influence dust production and emission, and methods through which dust can be monitored.

  9. Preindustrial nitrous oxide emissions from the land biosphere estimated by using a global biogeochemistry model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Rongting; Tian, Hanqin; Lu, Chaoqun; Pan, Shufen; Chen, Jian; Yang, Jia; Zhang, Bowen

    2017-07-01

    To accurately assess how increased global nitrous oxide (N2O) emission has affected the climate system requires a robust estimation of the preindustrial N2O emissions since only the difference between current and preindustrial emissions represents net drivers of anthropogenic climate change. However, large uncertainty exists in previous estimates of preindustrial N2O emissions from the land biosphere, while preindustrial N2O emissions on the finer scales, such as regional, biome, or sector scales, have not been well quantified yet. In this study, we applied a process-based Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model (DLEM) to estimate the magnitude and spatial patterns of preindustrial N2O fluxes at the biome, continental, and global level as driven by multiple environmental factors. Uncertainties associated with key parameters were also evaluated. Our study indicates that the mean of the preindustrial N2O emission was approximately 6.20 Tg N yr-1, with an uncertainty range of 4.76 to 8.13 Tg N yr-1. The estimated N2O emission varied significantly at spatial and biome levels. South America, Africa, and Southern Asia accounted for 34.12, 23.85, and 18.93 %, respectively, together contributing 76.90 % of global total emission. The tropics were identified as the major source of N2O released into the atmosphere, accounting for 64.66 % of the total emission. Our multi-scale estimates provide a robust reference for assessing the climate forcing of anthropogenic N2O emission from the land biosphere

  10. The Global Historical Climatology Network: Long-term monthly temperature, precipitation, sea level pressure, and station pressure data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vose, R.S. [Tennessee Univ., Knoxville, TN (United States). Energy, Environment and Resources Center; Schmoyer, R.L. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States); Steurer, P.M.; Peterson, T.C.; Heim, R.; Karl, T.R. [National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, NC (United States); Eischeid, J.K. [Colorado Univ., Boulder, CO (United States). Cooperative Inst. for Research in Environmental Sciences

    1992-07-01

    Interest in global climate change has risen dramatically during the last several years. In a similar fashion, the number of data sets available to study global change has also increased. Unfortunately, these data sets have been compiled by many different organizations/researchers, making it confusing and time consuming for individual researchers to acquire the ``best`` data. In response to this rapid growth in the number of global data sets, the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) and the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) commenced the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) project. The purpose of this project is to compile an improved global base-line data set of long-term monthly mean temperature, precipitation, sea level pressure, and station pressure for a dense network. of worldwide meteorological stations. Specifically, the GHCN project seeks to consolidate the numerous preexisting national-, regional-, and global-scale data sets into a single global climate data base that can be updated, enhanced, and distributed at regular intervals. The first version of the GHCN data base was completed during the summer of 1992. It contains 6039 temperature, 7533 precipitation, 1883 sea level pressure, and 1873 station pressure stations. All stations have at least 10 years of data, 40% have more than 50 years of data, and 10% have more than 100 years of data. Spatial coverage is good over most of the globe, particularly for the United States and central Europe. In comparison to other major global data sets, dramatic improvements are evident over South America, Africa, and Asia. The GHCN data base is available as a Numeric Data Package (NDP) from CDIAC. The NDP consists of this document and two magnetic tapes that contain machine-readable data files and accompanying retrieval codes. This document describes, in detail, both the GHCN data base and the contents of the magnetic tap

  11. The Global Historical Climatology Network: Long-term monthly temperature, precipitation, sea level pressure, and station pressure data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vose, R.S. (Tennessee Univ., Knoxville, TN (United States). Energy, Environment and Resources Center); Schmoyer, R.L. (Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States)); Steurer, P.M.; Peterson, T.C.; Heim, R.; Karl, T.R. (National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, NC (United States)); Eischeid, J.K. (Colorado Univ., Boulder, CO (United States). Cooperative Inst. for Research in Environmental Sciences)

    1992-07-01

    Interest in global climate change has risen dramatically during the last several years. In a similar fashion, the number of data sets available to study global change has also increased. Unfortunately, these data sets have been compiled by many different organizations/researchers, making it confusing and time consuming for individual researchers to acquire the best'' data. In response to this rapid growth in the number of global data sets, the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) and the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) commenced the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) project. The purpose of this project is to compile an improved global base-line data set of long-term monthly mean temperature, precipitation, sea level pressure, and station pressure for a dense network. of worldwide meteorological stations. Specifically, the GHCN project seeks to consolidate the numerous preexisting national-, regional-, and global-scale data sets into a single global climate data base that can be updated, enhanced, and distributed at regular intervals. The first version of the GHCN data base was completed during the summer of 1992. It contains 6039 temperature, 7533 precipitation, 1883 sea level pressure, and 1873 station pressure stations. All stations have at least 10 years of data, 40% have more than 50 years of data, and 10% have more than 100 years of data. Spatial coverage is good over most of the globe, particularly for the United States and central Europe. In comparison to other major global data sets, dramatic improvements are evident over South America, Africa, and Asia. The GHCN data base is available as a Numeric Data Package (NDP) from CDIAC. The NDP consists of this document and two magnetic tapes that contain machine-readable data files and accompanying retrieval codes. This document describes, in detail, both the GHCN data base and the contents of the magnetic tap

  12. Assessing historical global sulfur emission patterns for the period 1850--1990

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lefohn, A.S. [A.S.L. and Associates, Helena, MT (United States); Husar, J.D.; Husar, R.B. [Washington Univ., St. Louis, MO (United States). Center for Air Pollution Impact and Trend Analysis; Brimblecombe, P. [Univ. of East Anglia, Norwich (United Kingdom)

    1996-07-19

    Anthropogenic sulfur dioxide emissions from energy-producing and metal production activities have become an important factor in better understanding the relationship between humans and the environment. Concerns about (1) acid rain effects on the environment and (2) anthropogenic aerosols affecting possible global change have prompted interest in the transformation and fate of sulfur in the environment. One step in assessing the importance of sulfur emissions is the development of a reliable regional emission inventory of sulfur as a function of time. The objective of this research effort was to create a homogeneous database for historical sulfur emission estimates for the world. The time from 1850--1990 was selected to include the period of industrialization form the time the main production of fuels and minerals began until the most recent year for which complete production data exist. This research effort attempts to correct some of the deficiencies associated with previous global sulfur emission estimates by (1) identifying those production activities that resulted in sulfur emissions by country and (2) calculating historical emission trends by country across years. An important component of this study was the comparison of the sulfur emission results with those of previous studies.

  13. MODIS/TERRA MOD11A2 Land Surface Temperature & Emissivity 8-Day L3 Global 1km Version 6

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — The MODIS/Aqua Land Surface Temperature and Emissivity (LST/E) products provide per-pixel temperature and emissivity values in a sequence of swath-based global...

  14. Global Change Could Amplify Fire Effects on Soil Greenhouse Gas Emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niboyet, Audrey; Brown, Jamie R.; Dijkstra, Paul; Blankinship, Joseph C.; Leadley, Paul W.; Le Roux, Xavier; Barthes, Laure; Barnard, Romain L.; Field, Christopher B.; Hungate, Bruce A.

    2011-01-01

    Background Little is known about the combined impacts of global environmental changes and ecological disturbances on ecosystem functioning, even though such combined impacts might play critical roles in shaping ecosystem processes that can in turn feed back to climate change, such as soil emissions of greenhouse gases. Methodology/Principal Findings We took advantage of an accidental, low-severity wildfire that burned part of a long-term global change experiment to investigate the interactive effects of a fire disturbance and increases in CO2 concentration, precipitation and nitrogen supply on soil nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions in a grassland ecosystem. We examined the responses of soil N2O emissions, as well as the responses of the two main microbial processes contributing to soil N2O production – nitrification and denitrification – and of their main drivers. We show that the fire disturbance greatly increased soil N2O emissions over a three-year period, and that elevated CO2 and enhanced nitrogen supply amplified fire effects on soil N2O emissions: emissions increased by a factor of two with fire alone and by a factor of six under the combined influence of fire, elevated CO2 and nitrogen. We also provide evidence that this response was caused by increased microbial denitrification, resulting from increased soil moisture and soil carbon and nitrogen availability in the burned and fertilized plots. Conclusions/Significance Our results indicate that the combined effects of fire and global environmental changes can exceed their effects in isolation, thereby creating unexpected feedbacks to soil greenhouse gas emissions. These findings highlight the need to further explore the impacts of ecological disturbances on ecosystem functioning in the context of global change if we wish to be able to model future soil greenhouse gas emissions with greater confidence. PMID:21687708

  15. Global change could amplify fire effects on soil greenhouse gas emissions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Audrey Niboyet

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Little is known about the combined impacts of global environmental changes and ecological disturbances on ecosystem functioning, even though such combined impacts might play critical roles in shaping ecosystem processes that can in turn feed back to climate change, such as soil emissions of greenhouse gases. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We took advantage of an accidental, low-severity wildfire that burned part of a long-term global change experiment to investigate the interactive effects of a fire disturbance and increases in CO(2 concentration, precipitation and nitrogen supply on soil nitrous oxide (N(2O emissions in a grassland ecosystem. We examined the responses of soil N(2O emissions, as well as the responses of the two main microbial processes contributing to soil N(2O production--nitrification and denitrification--and of their main drivers. We show that the fire disturbance greatly increased soil N(2O emissions over a three-year period, and that elevated CO(2 and enhanced nitrogen supply amplified fire effects on soil N(2O emissions: emissions increased by a factor of two with fire alone and by a factor of six under the combined influence of fire, elevated CO(2 and nitrogen. We also provide evidence that this response was caused by increased microbial denitrification, resulting from increased soil moisture and soil carbon and nitrogen availability in the burned and fertilized plots. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our results indicate that the combined effects of fire and global environmental changes can exceed their effects in isolation, thereby creating unexpected feedbacks to soil greenhouse gas emissions. These findings highlight the need to further explore the impacts of ecological disturbances on ecosystem functioning in the context of global change if we wish to be able to model future soil greenhouse gas emissions with greater confidence.

  16. Global combustion: the connection between fossil fuel and biomass burning emissions (1997–2010)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balch, Jennifer K.; Nagy, R. Chelsea; Archibald, Sally; Moritz, Max A.; Williamson, Grant J.

    2016-01-01

    Humans use combustion for heating and cooking, managing lands, and, more recently, for fuelling the industrial economy. As a shift to fossil-fuel-based energy occurs, we expect that anthropogenic biomass burning in open landscapes will decline as it becomes less fundamental to energy acquisition and livelihoods. Using global data on both fossil fuel and biomass burning emissions, we tested this relationship over a 14 year period (1997–2010). The global average annual carbon emissions from biomass burning during this time were 2.2 Pg C per year (±0.3 s.d.), approximately one-third of fossil fuel emissions over the same period (7.3 Pg C, ±0.8 s.d.). There was a significant inverse relationship between average annual fossil fuel and biomass burning emissions. Fossil fuel emissions explained 8% of the variation in biomass burning emissions at a global scale, but this varied substantially by land cover. For example, fossil fuel burning explained 31% of the variation in biomass burning in woody savannas, but was a non-significant predictor for evergreen needleleaf forests. In the land covers most dominated by human use, croplands and urban areas, fossil fuel emissions were more than 30- and 500-fold greater than biomass burning emissions. This relationship suggests that combustion practices may be shifting from open landscape burning to contained combustion for industrial purposes, and highlights the need to take into account how humans appropriate combustion in global modelling of contemporary fire. Industrialized combustion is not only an important driver of atmospheric change, but also an important driver of landscape change through companion declines in human-started fires. This article is part of the themed issue ‘The interaction of fire and mankind’. PMID:27216509

  17. Global combustion: the connection between fossil fuel and biomass burning emissions (1997-2010).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balch, Jennifer K; Nagy, R Chelsea; Archibald, Sally; Bowman, David M J S; Moritz, Max A; Roos, Christopher I; Scott, Andrew C; Williamson, Grant J

    2016-06-05

    Humans use combustion for heating and cooking, managing lands, and, more recently, for fuelling the industrial economy. As a shift to fossil-fuel-based energy occurs, we expect that anthropogenic biomass burning in open landscapes will decline as it becomes less fundamental to energy acquisition and livelihoods. Using global data on both fossil fuel and biomass burning emissions, we tested this relationship over a 14 year period (1997-2010). The global average annual carbon emissions from biomass burning during this time were 2.2 Pg C per year (±0.3 s.d.), approximately one-third of fossil fuel emissions over the same period (7.3 Pg C, ±0.8 s.d.). There was a significant inverse relationship between average annual fossil fuel and biomass burning emissions. Fossil fuel emissions explained 8% of the variation in biomass burning emissions at a global scale, but this varied substantially by land cover. For example, fossil fuel burning explained 31% of the variation in biomass burning in woody savannas, but was a non-significant predictor for evergreen needleleaf forests. In the land covers most dominated by human use, croplands and urban areas, fossil fuel emissions were more than 30- and 500-fold greater than biomass burning emissions. This relationship suggests that combustion practices may be shifting from open landscape burning to contained combustion for industrial purposes, and highlights the need to take into account how humans appropriate combustion in global modelling of contemporary fire. Industrialized combustion is not only an important driver of atmospheric change, but also an important driver of landscape change through companion declines in human-started fires.This article is part of the themed issue 'The interaction of fire and mankind'. © 2016 The Author(s).

  18. Global emission inventory and atmospheric transport of black carbon. Evaluation of the associated exposure

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Rong

    2015-06-01

    This thesis presents research focusing on the improvement of high-resolution global black carbon (BC) emission inventory and application in assessing the population exposure to ambient BC. A particular focus of the thesis is on the construction of a high-resolution (both spatial and sectorial) fuel consumption database, which is used to develop the emission inventory of black carbon. Above all, the author updates the global emission inventory of black carbon, a resource subsequently used to study the atmospheric transport of black carbon over Asia with the help of a high-resolution nested model. The thesis demonstrates that spatial bias in fuel consumption and BC emissions can be reduced by means of the sub-national disaggregation approach. Using the inventory and nested model, ambient BC concentrations can be better validated against observations. Lastly, it provides a complete uncertainty analysis of global black carbon emissions, and this uncertainty is taken into account in the atmospheric modeling, helping to better understand the role of black carbon in regional and global air pollution.

  19. Methane emission from animals: A Global High-Resolution Data Base

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lerner, Jean; Matthews, Elaine; Fung, Inez

    1988-06-01

    We present a high-resolution global data base of animal population densities and associated methane emission. Statistics on animal populations from the Food and Agriculture Organization and other sources have been compiled. Animals were distributed using a 1° resolution data base of countries of the world and a 1° resolution data base of land use. The animals included are cattle and dairy cows, water buffalo, sheep, goats, camels, pigs, horses and caribou. Published estimates of methane production from each type of animal have been applied to the animal populations to yield a global distribution of annual methane emission by animals. There is large spatial variability in the distribution of animal populations and their methane emissions. Emission rates greater than 5000 kg CH4 km-2 yr-1 are found in small regions such as Bangladesh, the Benelux countries, parts of northern India, and New Zealand. Of the global annual emission of 75.8 Tg CH4 for 1984, about 55% is concentrated between 25°N and 55°N, a significant contribution to the observed north-south gradient of atmospheric methane concentration. A magnetic tape of the global data bases is available from the authors.

  20. Impact of mercury emissions from historic gold and silver mining: Global modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strode, Sarah; Jaeglé, Lyatt; Selin, Noelle E.

    We compare a global model of mercury to sediment core records to constrain mercury emissions from the 19th century North American gold and silver mining. We use information on gold and silver production, the ratio of mercury lost to precious metal produced, and the fraction of mercury lost to the atmosphere to calculate an a priory mining inventory for the 1870s, when the historical gold rush was at its highest. The resulting global mining emissions are 1630 Mg yr -1, consistent with previously published studies. Using this a priori estimate, we find that our 1880 simulation over-predicts the mercury deposition enhancements archived in lake sediment records. Reducing the mining emissions to 820 Mg yr -1 improves agreement with observations, and leads to a 30% enhancement in global deposition in 1880 compared to the pre-industrial period. For North America, where 83% of the mining emissions are located, deposition increases by 60%. While our lower emissions of atmospheric mercury leads to a smaller impact of the North American gold rush on global mercury deposition than previously estimated, it also implies that a larger fraction of the mercury used in extracting precious metals could have been directly lost to local soils and watersheds.

  1. Global NOx emission estimates derived from an assimilation of OMI tropospheric NO2 columns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Sudo

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available A data assimilation system has been developed to estimate global nitrogen oxides (NOx emissions using OMI tropospheric NO2 columns (DOMINO product and a global chemical transport model (CTM, the Chemical Atmospheric GCM for Study of Atmospheric Environment and Radiative Forcing (CHASER. The data assimilation system, based on an ensemble Kalman filter approach, was applied to optimize daily NOx emissions with a horizontal resolution of 2.8° during the years 2005 and 2006. The background error covariance estimated from the ensemble CTM forecasts explicitly represents non-direct relationships between the emissions and tropospheric columns caused by atmospheric transport and chemical processes. In comparison to the a priori emissions based on bottom-up inventories, the optimized emissions were higher over eastern China, the eastern United States, southern Africa, and central-western Europe, suggesting that the anthropogenic emissions are mostly underestimated in the inventories. In addition, the seasonality of the estimated emissions differed from that of the a priori emission over several biomass burning regions, with a large increase over Southeast Asia in April and over South America in October. The data assimilation results were validated against independent data: SCIAMACHY tropospheric NO2 columns and vertical NO2 profiles obtained from aircraft and lidar measurements. The emission correction greatly improved the agreement between the simulated and observed NO2 fields; this implies that the data assimilation system efficiently derives NOx emissions from concentration observations. We also demonstrated that biases in the satellite retrieval and model settings used in the data assimilation largely affect the magnitude of estimated emissions. These dependences should be carefully considered for better understanding NOx sources from top-down approaches.

  2. Global warming is driven by anthropogenic emissions: a time series analysis approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verdes, Pablo F

    2007-07-27

    The solar influence on global climate is nonstationary. Processes such as the Schwabe and Gleissberg cycles of the Sun, or the many intrinsic atmospheric oscillation modes, yield a complex pattern of interaction with multiple time scales. In addition, emissions of greenhouse gases, aerosols, or volcanic dust perturb the dynamics of this coupled system to different and still uncertain extents. Here we show, using two independent driving force reconstruction techniques, that the combined effect of greenhouse gases and aerosol emissions has been the main external driver of global climate during the past decades.

  3. Methodological aspects of a pattern-scaling approach to produce global fields of monthly means of daily maximum and minimum temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kremser, S.; Bodeker, G. E.; Lewis, J.

    2014-01-01

    A Climate Pattern-Scaling Model (CPSM) that simulates global patterns of climate change, for a prescribed emissions scenario, is described. A CPSM works by quantitatively establishing the statistical relationship between a climate variable at a specific location (e.g. daily maximum surface temperature, Tmax) and one or more predictor time series (e.g. global mean surface temperature, Tglobal) - referred to as the "training" of the CPSM. This training uses a regression model to derive fit coefficients that describe the statistical relationship between the predictor time series and the target climate variable time series. Once that relationship has been determined, and given the predictor time series for any greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenario, the change in the climate variable of interest can be reconstructed - referred to as the "application" of the CPSM. The advantage of using a CPSM rather than a typical atmosphere-ocean global climate model (AOGCM) is that the predictor time series required by the CPSM can usually be generated quickly using a simple climate model (SCM) for any prescribed GHG emissions scenario and then applied to generate global fields of the climate variable of interest. The training can be performed either on historical measurements or on output from an AOGCM. Using model output from 21st century simulations has the advantage that the climate change signal is more pronounced than in historical data and therefore a more robust statistical relationship is obtained. The disadvantage of using AOGCM output is that the CPSM training might be compromised by any AOGCM inadequacies. For the purposes of exploring the various methodological aspects of the CPSM approach, AOGCM output was used in this study to train the CPSM. These investigations of the CPSM methodology focus on monthly mean fields of daily temperature extremes (Tmax and Tmin). The methodological aspects of the CPSM explored in this study include (1) investigation of the advantage

  4. Global Health Benefits from Reductions in Background Tropospheric Ozone due to Methane Emission Controls

    Science.gov (United States)

    West, J. J.; Mauzerall, D. L.; Fiore, A. M.; Horowitz, L. W.

    2005-05-01

    Increases in background ozone throughout the troposphere are partially attributed to rising anthropogenic methane concentrations, which are projected to continue to increase in the future. Because methane is long-lived and affects background ozone, controls on methane emissions would reduce surface ozone concentrations fairly uniformly around the globe. Epidemiological research indicates that exposure to ozone increases incidence of respiratory ailments and premature mortality. In addition, exposure to ozone reduces agricultural yields and damages natural ecosystems. We use the MOZART-2 global atmospheric chemistry and transport model to estimate the effects on global surface ozone of perturbations in methane emissions. We consider a baseline scenario for 2000 and the 2030 A2 scenario (emissions from the IPCC AR-4 2030 atmospheric chemistry experiments), and examine the impact on ozone of decreasing anthropogenic methane emissions relative to this baseline by 20%. Using the simulated spatially-distributed decreases in surface ozone concentrations resulting from these reductions in methane emissions, we estimate the global benefits to human health in the methane emission reduction scenario. We focus on human mortality, and consider the sensitivity of our estimates to different assumptions of health effect thresholds at low ozone concentrations.

  5. Influence of tropical wind on global temperature from months to decades

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saenko, Oleg A.; Fyfe, John C.; Swart, Neil C.; Lee, Warren G.; England, Matthew H.

    2016-10-01

    Using an Earth System Model and observations we analyze the sequence of events connecting episodes of trade wind strengthening (or weakening) to global mean surface temperature (GMST) cooling (or warming), with tropical ocean wave dynamics partially setting the time scale. In this sequence tropical west Pacific wind stress signals lead equatorial east Pacific thermocline depth signals which lead tropical east Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) signals which lead GMST signals. Using the anthropogenic, natural and tropical wind signals extracted from our simulations in a multivariate linear regression with observed GMST makes clear the balance that exists between anthropogenic warming and tropical wind-induced cooling during the recent warming slowdown, and between volcanic cooling and tropical wind-induced warming during the El Chichón and Pinatubo eruptions. Finally, we find an anticorrelation between global-mean temperatures in the near-surface (upper ˜ 100 m) and subsurface (˜ 100-300 m) ocean layers, linked to wind-driven interannual to decadal variations in the strength of the subtropical cell overturning in the upper Pacific Ocean.

  6. A global catalogue of large SO2 sources and emissions derived from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fioletov, Vitali E.; McLinden, Chris A.; Krotkov, Nickolay; Li, Can; Joiner, Joanna; Theys, Nicolas; Carn, Simon; Moran, Mike D.

    2016-09-01

    Sulfur dioxide (SO2) measurements from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) satellite sensor processed with the new principal component analysis (PCA) algorithm were used to detect large point emission sources or clusters of sources. The total of 491 continuously emitting point sources releasing from about 30 kt yr-1 to more than 4000 kt yr-1 of SO2 per year have been identified and grouped by country and by primary source origin: volcanoes (76 sources); power plants (297); smelters (53); and sources related to the oil and gas industry (65). The sources were identified using different methods, including through OMI measurements themselves applied to a new emission detection algorithm, and their evolution during the 2005-2014 period was traced by estimating annual emissions from each source. For volcanic sources, the study focused on continuous degassing, and emissions from explosive eruptions were excluded. Emissions from degassing volcanic sources were measured, many for the first time, and collectively they account for about 30 % of total SO2 emissions estimated from OMI measurements, but that fraction has increased in recent years given that cumulative global emissions from power plants and smelters are declining while emissions from oil and gas industry remained nearly constant. Anthropogenic emissions from the USA declined by 80 % over the 2005-2014 period as did emissions from western and central Europe, whereas emissions from India nearly doubled, and emissions from other large SO2-emitting regions (South Africa, Russia, Mexico, and the Middle East) remained fairly constant. In total, OMI-based estimates account for about a half of total reported anthropogenic SO2 emissions; the remaining half is likely related to sources emitting less than 30 kt yr-1 and not detected by OMI.

  7. Modelling global methane emissions from livestock: Biological and nutritional controls

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Donald E.

    1992-01-01

    The available observations of methane production from the literature have been compiled into a ruminant methane data base. This data base includes 400 treatment mean observations of methane losses from cattle and sheep, and minor numbers of measurements from other species. Methane loss varied from 2.0 to 11.6 percent of dietary gross energy. Measurements included describe the many different weights and physiological states of the animals fed and diets ranging from all forage to all concentrate diets or mixtures. An auxiliary spreadsheet lists approximately 1000 individual animal observations. Many important concepts have emerged from our query and analysis of this data set. The majority of the world's cattle, sheep, and goats under normal husbandry circumstances likely produce methane very close to 6 percent of their daily diets gross energy (2 percent of the diet by weight). Although individual animals or losses from specific dietary research circumstances can vary considerably, the average for the vast majority of groups of ruminant livestock are likely to fall between 5.5 to 6.5 percent. We must caution, however, that little experimental data is available for two-thirds of the world's ruminants in developing countries. Available evidence suggests similar percentage of emissions, but this supposition needs confirmation. More importantly, data is skimpy or unavailable to describe diet consumption, animal weight, and class distribution.

  8. Scenario and modelling uncertainty in global mean temperature change derived from emission-driven global climate models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. B. B. Booth

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available We compare future changes in global mean temperature in response to different future scenarios which, for the first time, arise from emission-driven rather than concentration-driven perturbed parameter ensemble of a global climate model (GCM. These new GCM simulations sample uncertainties in atmospheric feedbacks, land carbon cycle, ocean physics and aerosol sulphur cycle processes. We find broader ranges of projected temperature responses arising when considering emission rather than concentration-driven simulations (with 10–90th percentile ranges of 1.7 K for the aggressive mitigation scenario, up to 3.9 K for the high-end, business as usual scenario. A small minority of simulations resulting from combinations of strong atmospheric feedbacks and carbon cycle responses show temperature increases in excess of 9 K (RCP8.5 and even under aggressive mitigation (RCP2.6 temperatures in excess of 4 K. While the simulations point to much larger temperature ranges for emission-driven experiments, they do not change existing expectations (based on previous concentration-driven experiments on the timescales over which different sources of uncertainty are important. The new simulations sample a range of future atmospheric concentrations for each emission scenario. Both in the case of SRES A1B and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs, the concentration scenarios used to drive GCM ensembles, lies towards the lower end of our simulated distribution. This design decision (a legacy of previous assessments is likely to lead concentration-driven experiments to under-sample strong feedback responses in future projections. Our ensemble of emission-driven simulations span the global temperature response of the CMIP5 emission-driven simulations, except at the low end. Combinations of low climate sensitivity and low carbon cycle feedbacks lead to a number of CMIP5 responses to lie below our ensemble range. The ensemble simulates a number of high

  9. The Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) after fifteen years: Review of global products

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abrams, Michael; Tsu, Hiroji; Hulley, Glynn; Iwao, Koki; Pieri, David; Cudahy, Tom; Kargel, Jeffrey

    2015-06-01

    The Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) is a 15-channel imaging instrument operating on NASA's Terra satellite. A joint project between the U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration and Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry, ASTER has been acquiring data for 15 years, since March 2000. The archive now contains over 2.8 million scenes; for the majority of them, a stereo pair was collected using nadir and backward telescopes imaging in the NIR wavelength. The majority of users require only a few to a few dozen scenes for their work. Studies have ranged over numerous scientific disciplines, and many practical applications have benefited from ASTER's unique data. A few researchers have been able to mine the entire ASTER archive, that is now global in extent due to the long duration of the mission. Six examples of global products are described in this contribution: the ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model (GDEM), the most complete, highest resolution DEM available to all users; the ASTER Emissivity Database (ASTER GED), a global 5-band emissivity map of the land surface; the ASTER Global Urban Area Map (AGURAM), a 15-m resolution database of over 3500 cities; the ASTER Volcano Archive (AVA), an archive of over 1500 active volcanoes; ASTER Geoscience products of the continent of Australia; and the Global Ice Monitoring from Space (GLIMS) project.

  10. Explaining global surface aerosol number concentrations in terms of primary emissions and particle formation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. V. Spracklen

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available We synthesised observations of total particle number (CN concentration from 36 sites around the world. We found that annual mean CN concentrations are typically 300–2000 cm−3 in the marine boundary layer and free troposphere (FT and 1000–10 000 cm−3 in the continental boundary layer (BL. Many sites exhibit pronounced seasonality with summer time concentrations a factor of 2–10 greater than wintertime concentrations. We used these CN observations to evaluate primary and secondary sources of particle number in a global aerosol microphysics model. We found that emissions of primary particles can reasonably reproduce the spatial pattern of observed CN concentration (R2=0.46 but fail to explain the observed seasonal cycle (R2=0.1. The modeled CN concentration in the FT was biased low (normalised mean bias, NMB=−88% unless a secondary source of particles was included, for example from binary homogeneous nucleation of sulfuric acid and water (NMB=−25%. Simulated CN concentrations in the continental BL were also biased low (NMB=−74% unless the number emission of anthropogenic primary particles was increased or a mechanism that results in particle formation in the BL was included. We ran a number of simulations where we included an empirical BL nucleation mechanism either using the activation-type mechanism (nucleation rate, J, proportional to gas-phase sulfuric acid concentration to the power one or kinetic-type mechanism (J proportional to sulfuric acid to the power two with a range of nucleation coefficients. We found that the seasonal CN cycle observed at continental BL sites was better simulated by BL particle formation (R2=0.3 than by increasing the number emission from primary anthropogenic sources (R2=0.18. The nucleation constants that resulted in best overall match between model and observed CN concentrations were

  11. Global emissions of fluorinated greenhouse gases until 2050: technical mitigation potentials and costs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Purohit, Pallav; Hoglund-Isaksson, Lena

    2016-04-01

    The anthropogenic fluorinated (F-gases) greenhouse gas emissions have increased significantly in recent years and are estimated to rise further in response to increased demand for cooling services and the phase out of ozone-depleting substances (ODS) under the Montreal Protocol. F-gases (HFCs, PFCs and SF6) are potent greenhouse gases, with a global warming effect up to 22,800 times greater than carbon dioxide (CO2). This study presents estimates of current and future global emissions of F-gases, their technical mitigation potential and associated costs for the period 2005 to 2050. The analysis uses the GAINS model framework to estimate emissions, mitigation potentials and costs for all major sources of anthropogenic F-gases for 162 countries/regions, which are aggregated to produce global estimates. For each region, 18 emission source sectors with mitigation potentials and costs were identified. Global F-gas emissions are estimated at 0.7 Gt CO2eq in 2005 with an expected increase to about 3.6 Gt CO2eq in 2050. There are extensive opportunities to reduce emissions by over 95 percent primarily through replacement with existing low GWP substances. The initial results indicate that at least half of the mitigation potential is attainable at a cost of less than 20€ per t CO2eq, while almost 90 percent reduction is attainable at less than 100€ per t CO2eq. Currently, several policy proposals have been presented to amend the Montreal Protocol to substantially curb global HFC use. We analyze the technical potentials and costs associated with the HFC mitigation required under the different proposed Montreal Protocol amendments.

  12. Assessing the Global and Arctic Transport of Polychlorinated Biphenyls Under Present and Future Climate and Emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friedman, C. L.; Selin, N. E.

    2014-12-01

    We simulate the present and potential future atmospheric transport and fate of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), using the global chemical transport model GEOS-Chem. PCBs are toxic, persistent, and bioaccumulative chemicals whose production and use have been banned internationally. PCBs continue to cycle through the global atmosphere, however, because of their persistence, passive emissions from remaining stocks, and release from natural storage reservoirs such as oceans or soils. In particular, PCBs have been shown to transport long distances in the atmosphere to locations remote from emissions, such as the Arctic, where they can accumulate in wildlife and humans, putting health at risk. Previous studies have suggested that PCBs may be remobilized in a changing climate because higher temperatures will cause greater re-emissions from surface reservoirs. Here, we modify GEOS-Chem to simulate atmospheric PCB transport and investigate the relative effects of predicted climate changes and projected declines in primary emissions, especially on transport to the Arctic. We quantify changes in atmospheric concentrations of two PCBs (CB28 and CB 153) under 2050 climate ("FC"); 2050 emissions ("FE"); and 2050 climate and emissions combined ("FCFE"); relative to a 2000 climate, 2000 emissions control scenario, and determine the major processes affecting these changes. In the version of the model presented here, only soil-atmosphere surface interactions are considered, though future versions will include interaction with other surface media. Our results suggest projected 2050 emissions will play a stronger role than 2050 climate in controlling PCB concentrations of different volatilities. Temperature increases under FC cause increases in emissions of only 4% at most, resulting in negligible concentration changes relative to the FE scenario, in which primary emissions are projected to decline to temperature changes under FC.

  13. A new approach for monthly updates of anthropogenic sulfur dioxide emissions from space: Application to China and implications for air quality forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yi; Wang, Jun; Xu, Xiaoguang; Henze, Daven K.; Wang, Yuxuan; Qu, Zhen

    2016-09-01

    SO2 emissions, the largest source of anthropogenic aerosols, can respond rapidly to economic and policy driven changes. However, bottom-up SO2 inventories have inherent limitations owing to 24-48 months latency and lack of month-to-month variation in emissions (especially in developing countries). This study develops a new approach that integrates Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) SO2 satellite measurements and GEOS-Chem adjoint model simulations to constrain monthly anthropogenic SO2 emissions. The approach's effectiveness is demonstrated for 14 months in East Asia; resultant posterior emissions not only capture a 20% SO2 emission reduction in Beijing during the 2008 Olympic Games but also improve agreement between modeled and in situ surface measurements. Further analysis reveals that posterior emissions estimates, compared to the prior, lead to significant improvements in forecasting monthly surface and columnar SO2. With the pending availability of geostationary measurements of tropospheric composition, we show that it may soon be possible to rapidly constrain SO2 emissions and associated air quality predictions at fine spatiotemporal scales.

  14. Global climate impacts of country-level primary carbonaceous aerosol from solid-fuel cookstove emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lacey, Forrest; Henze, Daven

    2015-11-01

    Cookstove use is globally one of the largest unregulated anthropogenic sources of primary carbonaceous aerosol. While reducing cookstove emissions through national-scale mitigation efforts has clear benefits for improving indoor and ambient air quality, and significant climate benefits from reduced green-house gas emissions, climate impacts associated with reductions to co-emitted black (BC) and organic carbonaceous aerosol are not well characterized. Here we attribute direct, indirect, semi-direct, and snow/ice albedo radiative forcing (RF) and associated global surface temperature changes to national-scale carbonaceous aerosol cookstove emissions. These results are made possible through the use of adjoint sensitivity modeling to relate direct RF and BC deposition to emissions. Semi- and indirect effects are included via global scaling factors, and bounds on these estimates are drawn from current literature ranges for aerosol RF along with a range of solid fuel emissions characterizations. Absolute regional temperature potentials are used to estimate global surface temperature changes. Bounds are placed on these estimates, drawing from current literature ranges for aerosol RF along with a range of solid fuel emissions characterizations. We estimate a range of 0.16 K warming to 0.28 K cooling with a central estimate of 0.06 K cooling from the removal of cookstove aerosol emissions. At the national emissions scale, countries’ impacts on global climate range from net warming (e.g., Mexico and Brazil) to net cooling, although the range of estimated impacts for all countries span zero given uncertainties in RF estimates and fuel characterization. We identify similarities and differences in the sets of countries with the highest emissions and largest cookstove temperature impacts (China, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Nepal), those with the largest temperature impact per carbon emitted (Kazakhstan, Estonia, and Mongolia), and those that would provide the

  15. Estimation of the diffuse radiation fraction for hourly, daily and monthly-average global radiation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erbs, D. G.; Klein, S. A.; Duffie, J. A.

    1982-01-01

    Hourly pyrheliometer and pyranometer data from four U.S. locations are used to establish a relationship between the hourly diffuse fraction and the hourly clearness index. This relationship is compared to the relationship established by Orgill and Hollands (1977) and to a set of data from Highett, Australia, and agreement is within a few percent in both cases. The transient simulation program TRNSYS is used to calculate the annual performance of solar energy systems using several correlations. For the systems investigated, the effect of simulating the random distribution of the hourly diffuse fraction is negligible. A seasonally dependent daily diffuse correlation is developed from the data, and this daily relationship is used to derive a correlation for the monthly-average diffuse fraction.

  16. The effect of harmonized emissions on aerosol properties in global models - an AeroCom experiment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Textor, C.; Schulz, M.; Krol, M.C.

    2007-01-01

    The effects of unified aerosol sources on global aerosol fields simulated by different models are examined in this paper. We compare results from two AeroCom experiments, one with different (ExpA) and one with unified emissions, injection heights, and particle sizes at the source (ExpB). Surprisingl

  17. On the Quality of Global Emission Inventories : Approaches, Methodologies, Input Data and Uncertainties

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Olivier, Johannes Gerardus Jozef

    2002-01-01

    This thesis deals with methodological and practical aspects of compiling global emission inventories in relation to their use. The first part of the thesis describes quality aspects from the perspective of the user: i.e. definition, determining factors, practical applications and quantitative

  18. Global trends and uncertainties in terrestrial denitrification and N2O emissions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bouwman, A.F.; Beusen, A.H.W.; Griffioen, J.; Groenigen, J.W. van; Hefting, M.M.; Oenema, O.; Puijenbroek, P.J.T.M. van; Seitzinger, S.; Slomp, C.P.; Stehfest, E.

    2013-01-01

    Soil nitrogen (N) budgets are used in a global, distributed flow-path model with 0.5° × 0.5° resolution, representing denitrification and N2O emissions from soils, groundwater and riparian zones for the period 1900-2000 and scenarios for the period 2000-2050 based on the Millennium Ecosystem As

  19. Global trends and uncertainties in terrestrial denitrification and N2O emissions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bouwman, A.F.; Beusen, A.H.W.; Griffioen, J.; Groenigen, J.W. van; Hefting, M.M.; Oenema, O.; Puijenbroek, P.J.T.M. van; Seitzinger, S.; Slomp, C.P.; Stehfest, E.

    2013-01-01

    Soil nitrogen (N) budgets are used in a global, distributed flow-path model with 0.5° × 0.5° resolution, representing denitrification and N2O emissions from soils, groundwater and riparian zones for the period 1900-2000 and scenarios for the period 2000-2050 based on the Millennium Ecosystem As

  20. Biomass burning emissions estimated with a global fire assimilation system based on observed fire radiative power

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kaiser, J.W.; Heil, A.; Andreae, M.O.; Benedetti, A.; Chubarova, N.; Jones, L.; Morcrette, J.J.; Razinger, M.; Schultz, M.G.; Suttie, M.; Werf, van der G.R.

    2012-01-01

    The Global Fire Assimilation System (GFASv1.0) calculates biomass burning emissions by assimilating Fire Radiative Power (FRP) observations from the MODIS instruments onboard the Terra and Aqua satellites. It corrects for gaps in the observations, which are mostly due to cloud cover, and filters spu

  1. Understanding changes in the UK's CO2 emissions: a global perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baiocchi, Giovanni; Minx, Jan C

    2010-02-15

    The UK appears to be a leading country in curbing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Unlike many other developed countries, it has already met its Kyoto obligations and defined ambitious, legally binding targets for the future. Recently this achievement has been called into question as it ignores rapidly changing patterns of production and international trade. We use structural decomposition analysis (SDA) to investigate the drivers behind annual changes in CO(2) emission from consumption in the UK between 1992 and 2004. In contrast with previous SDA-based studies, we apply the decomposition to a global, multiregional input-output model (MRIO), which accounts for UK imports from all regions and uses region-specific production structures and CO(2) intensities. We find that improvements from "domestic" changes in efficiency and production structure led to a 148 Mt reduction in CO(2) emissions, which only partially offsets emission increases of 217 Mt from changes in the global supply chain and from growing consumer demand. Recent emission reductions achieved in the UK are not merely a reflection of a greening of the domestic supply chain, but also of a change in the international division of labor in the global production of goods and services.

  2. Biomass burning emissions estimated with a global fire assimilation system based on observed fire radiative power

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. W. Kaiser

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available The Global Fire Assimilation System (GFASv1.0 calculates biomass burning emissions by assimilating Fire Radiative Power (FRP observations from the MODIS instruments onboard the Terra and Aqua satellites. It corrects for gaps in the observations, which are mostly due to cloud cover, and filters spurious FRP observations of volcanoes, gas flares and other industrial activity. The combustion rate is subsequently calculated with land cover-specific conversion factors. Emission factors for 40 gas-phase and aerosol trace species have been compiled from a literature survey. The corresponding daily emissions have been calculated on a global 0.5° × 0.5° grid from 2003 to the present. General consistency with the Global Fire Emission Database version 3.1 (GFED3.1 within its accuracy is achieved while maintaining the advantages of an FRP-based approach: GFASv1.0 makes use of the quantitative information on the combustion rate that is contained in the observations, and it detects fires in real time at high spatial and temporal resolution. GFASv1.0 indicates omission errors in GFED3.1 due to undetected small fires. It also exhibits slightly longer fire seasons in South America and North Africa and a slightly shorter fire season in Southeast Asia. GFASv1.0 has already been used for atmospheric reactive gas simulations in an independent study, which found good agreement with atmospheric observations. We have performed simulations of the atmospheric aerosol distribution with and without the assimilation of MODIS aerosol optical depth (AOD. They indicate that the emissions of particulate matter need to be boosted with a factor of 2–4 to reproduce the global distribution of organic matter and black carbon. This discrepancy is also evident in the comparison of previously published top-down and bottom-up estimates. For the time being, a global enhancement of the particulate matter emissions by 3.4 is recommended. Validation with independent AOD and PM10

  3. Modeling global atmospheric CO2 with improved emission inventories and CO2 production from the oxidation of other carbon species

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nassar, Ray [University of Toronto; Jones, DBA [University of Toronto; Suntharalingam, P [University of East Anglia, Norwich, United Kingdom; Chen, j. [University of Toronto; Andres, Robert Joseph [ORNL; Wecht, K. J. [Harvard University; Yantosca, R. M. [Harvard University; Kulawik, SS [Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA; Bowman, K [Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA; Worden, JR [Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA; Machida, T [National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan; Matsueda, H [Meteorological Research Institute, Japan

    2010-01-01

    The use of global three-dimensional (3-D) models with satellite observations of CO2 in inverse modeling studies is an area of growing importance for understanding Earth s carbon cycle. Here we use the GEOS-Chem model (version 8-02-01) CO2 mode with multiple modifications in order to assess their impact on CO2 forward simulations. Modifications include CO2 surface emissions from shipping (0.19 PgC yr 1), 3-D spatially-distributed emissions from aviation (0.16 PgC yr 1), and 3-D chemical production of CO2 (1.05 PgC yr 1). Although CO2 chemical production from the oxidation of CO, CH4 and other carbon gases is recognized as an important contribution to global CO2, it is typically accounted for by conversion from its precursors at the surface rather than in the free troposphere. We base our model 3-D spatial distribution of CO2 chemical production on monthly-averaged loss rates of CO (a key precursor and intermediate in the oxidation of organic carbon) and apply an associated surface correction for inventories that have counted emissions of CO2 precursors as CO2. We also explore the benefit of assimilating satellite observations of CO into GEOS-Chem to obtain an observation-based estimate of the CO2 chemical source. The CO assimilation corrects for an underestimate of atmospheric CO abundances in the model, resulting in increases of as much as 24% in the chemical source during May June 2006, and increasing the global annual estimate of CO2 chemical production from 1.05 to 1.18 Pg C. Comparisons of model CO2 with measurements are carried out in order to investigate the spatial and temporal distributions that result when these new sources are added. Inclusion of CO2 emissions from shipping and aviation are shown to increase the global CO2 latitudinal gradient by just over 0.10 ppm (3%), while the inclusion of CO2 chemical production (and the surface correction) is shown to decrease the latitudinal gradient by about 0.40 ppm (10%) with a complex spatial structure

  4. Modeling global atmospheric CO2 with improved emission inventories and CO2 production from the oxidation of other carbon species

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. W. Bowman

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available The use of global three-dimensional (3-D models with satellite observations of CO2 in inverse modeling studies is an area of growing importance for understanding Earth's carbon cycle. Here we use the GEOS-Chem model (version 8-02-01 CO2 mode with multiple modifications in order to assess their impact on CO2 forward simulations. Modifications include CO2 surface emissions from shipping (~0.19 Pg C yr−1, 3-D spatially-distributed emissions from aviation (~0.16 Pg C yr−1, and 3-D chemical production of CO2 (~1.05 Pg C yr−1. Although CO2 chemical production from the oxidation of CO, CH4 and other carbon gases is recognized as an important contribution to global CO2, it is typically accounted for by conversion from its precursors at the surface rather than in the free troposphere. We base our model 3-D spatial distribution of CO2 chemical production on monthly-averaged loss rates of CO (a key precursor and intermediate in the oxidation of organic carbon and apply an associated surface correction for inventories that have counted emissions of CO2 precursors as CO2. We also explore the benefit of assimilating satellite observations of CO into GEOS-Chem to obtain an observation-based estimate of the CO2 chemical source. The CO assimilation corrects for an underestimate of atmospheric CO abundances in the model, resulting in increases of as much as 24% in the chemical source during May–June 2006, and increasing the global annual estimate of CO2 chemical production from 1.05 to 1.18 Pg C. Comparisons of model CO2 with measurements are carried out in order to investigate the spatial and temporal distributions that result when these new sources are added. Inclusion of CO2 emissions from shipping and aviation are shown to increase the global CO2 latitudinal gradient by just over 0.10 ppm (~3%, while the inclusion of CO2 chemical production (and the surface correction is shown to decrease the latitudinal gradient by about 0.40 ppm (~10% with a complex

  5. Global organic carbon emissions from primary sources from 1960 to 2009

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Ye; Shen, Huizhong; Chen, Yilin; Zhong, Qirui; Chen, Han; Wang, Rong; Shen, Guofeng; Liu, Junfeng; Li, Bengang; Tao, Shu

    2015-12-01

    In an attempt to reduce uncertainty, global organic carbon (OC) emissions from a total of 70 sources were compiled at 0.1° × 0.1° resolution for 2007 (PKU-OC-2007) and country scale from 1960 to 2009. The compilation took advantage of a new fuel-consumption data product (PKU-Fuel-2007) and a series of newly published emission factors (EFOC) in developing countries. The estimated OC emissions were 32.9 Tg (24.1-50.6 Tg as interquartile range), of which less than one third was anthropogenic in origin. Uncertainty resulted primarily from variations in EFOC. Asia, Africa, and South America had high emissions mainly because of residential biomass fuel burning or wildfires. Per-person OC emission in rural areas was three times that of urban areas because of the relatively high EFOC of residential solid fuels. Temporal trend of anthropogenic OC emissions depended on rural population, and was influenced primarily by residential crop residue and agricultural waste burning. Both the OC/PM2.5 ratio and emission intensity, defined as quantity of OC emissions per unit of fuel consumption for all sources, of anthropogenic OC followed a decreasing trend, indicating continuous improvement in combustion efficiency and control measures.

  6. Global mismatch between greenhouse gas emissions and the burden of climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Althor, Glenn; Watson, James E M; Fuller, Richard A

    2016-02-05

    Countries export much of the harm created by their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions because the Earth's atmosphere intermixes globally. Yet, the extent to which this leads to inequity between GHG emitters and those impacted by the resulting climate change depends on the distribution of climate vulnerability. Here, we determine empirically the relationship between countries' GHG emissions and their vulnerability to negative effects of climate change. In line with the results of other studies, we find an enormous global inequality where 20 of the 36 highest emitting countries are among the least vulnerable to negative impacts of future climate change. Conversely, 11 of the 17 countries with low or moderate GHG emissions, are acutely vulnerable to negative impacts of climate change. In 2010, only 28 (16%) countries had an equitable balance between emissions and vulnerability. Moreover, future emissions scenarios show that this inequality will significantly worsen by 2030. Many countries are manifestly free riders causing others to bear a climate change burden, which acts as a disincentive for them to mitigate their emissions. It is time that this persistent and worsening climate inequity is resolved, and for the largest emitting countries to act on their commitment of common but differentiated responsibilities.

  7. Incorrectly Interpreting the Carbon Mass Balance Technique Leads to Biased Emissions Estimates from Global Vegetation Fires

    Science.gov (United States)

    Surawski, N. C.; Sullivan, A. L.; Roxburgh, S. H.; Meyer, M.; Polglase, P. J.

    2016-12-01

    Vegetation fires are a complex phenomenon and have a range of global impacts including influences on climate. Even though fire is a necessary disturbance for the maintenance of some ecosystems, a range of anthropogenically deleterious consequences are associated with it, such as damage to assets and infrastructure, loss of life, as well as degradation to air quality leading to negative impacts on human health. Estimating carbon emissions from fire relies on a carbon mass balance technique which has evolved with two different interpretations in the fire emissions community. Databases reporting global fire emissions estimates use an approach based on `consumed biomass' which is an approximation to the biogeochemically correct `burnt carbon' approach. Disagreement between the two methods occurs because the `consumed biomass' accounting technique assumes that all burnt carbon is volatilized and emitted. By undertaking a global review of the fraction of burnt carbon emitted to the atmosphere, we show that the `consumed biomass' accounting approach overestimates global carbon emissions by 4.0%, or 100 Teragrams, annually. The required correction is significant and represents 9% of the net global forest carbon sink estimated annually. To correctly partition burnt carbon between that emitted to the atmosphere and that remaining as a post-fire residue requires the post-burn carbon content to be estimated, which is quite often not undertaken in atmospheric emissions studies. To broaden our understanding of ecosystem carbon fluxes, it is recommended that the change in carbon content associated with burnt residues be accounted for. Apart from correctly partitioning burnt carbon between the emitted and residue pools, it enables an accounting approach which can assess the efficacy of fire management operations targeted at sequestering carbon from fire. These findings are particularly relevant for the second commitment period for the Kyoto protocol, since improved landscape fire

  8. Fugitive emissions from the Bakken shale illustrate role of shale production in global ethane shift

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kort, E. A.; Smith, M. L.; Murray, L. T.; Gvakharia, A.; Brandt, A. R.; Peischl, J.; Ryerson, T. B.; Sweeney, C.; Travis, K.

    2016-05-01

    Ethane is the second most abundant atmospheric hydrocarbon, exerts a strong influence on tropospheric ozone, and reduces the atmosphere's oxidative capacity. Global observations showed declining ethane abundances from 1984 to 2010, while a regional measurement indicated increasing levels since 2009, with the reason for this subject to speculation. The Bakken shale is an oil and gas-producing formation centered in North Dakota that experienced a rapid increase in production beginning in 2010. We use airborne data collected over the North Dakota portion of the Bakken shale in 2014 to calculate ethane emissions of 0.23 ± 0.07 (2σ) Tg/yr, equivalent to 1-3% of total global sources. Emissions of this magnitude impact air quality via concurrent increases in tropospheric ozone. This recently developed large ethane source from one location illustrates the key role of shale oil and gas production in rising global ethane levels.

  9. Global volcanic aerosol properties derived from emissions, 1990-2014, using CESM1(WACCM): VOLCANIC AEROSOLS DERIVED FROM EMISSIONS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mills, Michael J. [Atmospheric Chemistry Observations and Modeling Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder Colorado USA; Schmidt, Anja [School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds UK; Easter, Richard [Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Solomon, Susan [Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge Massachusetts USA; Kinnison, Douglas E. [Atmospheric Chemistry Observations and Modeling Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder Colorado USA; Ghan, Steven J. [Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Neely, Ryan R. [School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds UK; National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Leeds, Leeds UK; Marsh, Daniel R. [Atmospheric Chemistry Observations and Modeling Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder Colorado USA; Conley, Andrew [Atmospheric Chemistry Observations and Modeling Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder Colorado USA; Bardeen, Charles G. [Atmospheric Chemistry Observations and Modeling Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder Colorado USA; Gettelman, Andrew [Atmospheric Chemistry Observations and Modeling Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder Colorado USA

    2016-03-06

    Accurate representation of global stratospheric aerosol properties from volcanic and non-volcanic sulfur emissions is key to understanding the cooling effects and ozone-loss enhancements of recent volcanic activity. Attribution of climate and ozone variability to volcanic activity is of particular interest in relation to the post-2000 slowing in the apparent rate of global average temperature increases, and variable recovery of the Antarctic ozone hole. We have developed a climatology of global aerosol properties from 1990 to 2014 calculated based on volcanic and non-volcanic emissions of sulfur sources. We have complied a database of volcanic SO2 emissions and plume altitudes for eruptions between 1990 and 2014, and a new prognostic capability for simulating stratospheric sulfate aerosols in version 5 of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model, a component of the Community Earth System Model. Our climatology shows remarkable agreement with ground-based lidar observations of stratospheric aerosol optical depth (SAOD), and with in situ measurements of aerosol surface area density (SAD). These properties are key parameters in calculating the radiative and chemical effects of stratospheric aerosols. Our SAOD climatology represents a significant improvement over satellite-based analyses, which ignore aerosol extinction below 15 km, a region that can contain the vast majority of stratospheric aerosol extinction at mid- and high-latitudes. Our SAD climatology significantly improves on that provided for the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative, which misses 60% of the SAD measured in situ. Our climatology of aerosol properties is publicly available on the Earth System Grid.

  10. Comparison of regional and global land cover products and the implications for biogenic emission modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Ling; McDonald-Buller, Elena; McGaughey, Gary; Kimura, Yosuke; Allen, David T

    2015-10-01

    Accurate estimates of biogenic emissions are required for air quality models that support the development of air quality management plans and attainment demonstrations. Land cover characterization is an essential driving input for most biogenic emissions models. This work contrasted the global Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) land cover product against a regional land cover product developed for the Texas Commissions on Environmental Quality (TCEQ) over four climate regions in eastern Texas, where biogenic emissions comprise a large fraction of the total inventory of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and land cover is highly diverse. The Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGAN) was utilized to investigate the influences of land cover characterization on modeled isoprene and monoterpene emissions through changes in the standard emission potential and emission activity factor, both separately and simultaneously. In Central Texas, forest coverage was significantly lower in the MODIS land cover product relative to the TCEQ data, which resulted in substantially lower estimates of isoprene and monoterpene emissions by as much as 90%. Differences in predicted isoprene and monoterpene emissions associated with variability in land cover characterization were primarily caused by differences in the standard emission potential, which is dependent on plant functional type. Photochemical modeling was conducted to investigate the effects of differences in estimated biogenic emissions associated with land cover characterization on predicted ozone concentrations using the Comprehensive Air Quality Model with Extensions (CAMx). Mean differences in maximum daily average 8-hour (MDA8) ozone concentrations were 2 to 6 ppb with maximum differences exceeding 20 ppb. Continued focus should be on reducing uncertainties in the representation of land cover through field validation. Uncertainties in the estimation of biogenic emissions associated with

  11. Global isoprene emissions estimated using MEGAN, ECMWF analyses and a detailed canopy environment model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J.-F. Müller

    2008-03-01

    Full Text Available The global emissions of isoprene are calculated at 0.5° resolution for each year between 1995 and 2006, based on the MEGAN (Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature version 2 model (Guenther et al., 2006 and a detailed multi-layer canopy environment model for the calculation of leaf temperature and visible radiation fluxes. The calculation is driven by meteorological fields – air temperature, cloud cover, downward solar irradiance, windspeed, volumetric soil moisture in 4 soil layers – provided by analyses of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF. The estimated annual global isoprene emission ranges between 374 Tg (in 1996 and 449 Tg (in 1998 and 2005, for an average of ca. 410 Tg/year over the whole period, i.e. about 30% less than the standard MEGAN estimate (Guenther et al., 2006. This difference is due, to a large extent, to the impact of the soil moisture stress factor, which is found here to decrease the global emissions by more than 20%. In qualitative agreement with past studies, high annual emissions are found to be generally associated with El Niño events. The emission inventory is evaluated against flux measurement campaigns at Harvard forest (Massachussets and Tapajós in Amazonia, showing that the model can capture quite well the short-term variability of emissions, but that it fails to reproduce the observed seasonal variation at the tropical rainforest site, with largely overestimated wet season fluxes. The comparison of the HCHO vertical columns calculated by a chemistry and transport model (CTM with HCHO distributions retrieved from space provides useful insights on tropical isoprene emissions. For example, the relatively low emissions calculated over Western Amazonia (compared to the corresponding estimates in the inventory of Guenther et al., 1995 are validated by the excellent agreement found between the CTM and HCHO data over this region. The parameterized impact of the soil moisture

  12. Fundamental statistical relationships between monthly and daily meteorological variables: Temporal downscaling of weather based on a global observational dataset

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sommer, Philipp; Kaplan, Jed

    2016-04-01

    Accurate modelling of large-scale vegetation dynamics, hydrology, and other environmental processes requires meteorological forcing on daily timescales. While meteorological data with high temporal resolution is becoming increasingly available, simulations for the future or distant past are limited by lack of data and poor performance of climate models, e.g., in simulating daily precipitation. To overcome these limitations, we may temporally downscale monthly summary data to a daily time step using a weather generator. Parameterization of such statistical models has traditionally been based on a limited number of observations. Recent developments in the archiving, distribution, and analysis of "big data" datasets provide new opportunities for the parameterization of a temporal downscaling model that is applicable over a wide range of climates. Here we parameterize a WGEN-type weather generator using more than 50 million individual daily meteorological observations, from over 10'000 stations covering all continents, based on the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) and Synoptic Cloud Reports (EECRA) databases. Using the resulting "universal" parameterization and driven by monthly summaries, we downscale mean temperature (minimum and maximum), cloud cover, and total precipitation, to daily estimates. We apply a hybrid gamma-generalized Pareto distribution to calculate daily precipitation amounts, which overcomes much of the inability of earlier weather generators to simulate high amounts of daily precipitation. Our globally parameterized weather generator has numerous applications, including vegetation and crop modelling for paleoenvironmental studies.

  13. Global projections for anthropogenic reactive nitrogen emissions to the atmosphere: An assessment of scenarios in the scientific literature

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Vuuren, D.P.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/11522016X; Bouwman, L.F.; Smith, S.J.; Dentener, F.

    2011-01-01

    Most long-term scenarios of global reactive nitrogen (Nr) emissions to the atmosphere are produced by Integrated Assessment Models in the context of climate change assessments. These scenarios indicate that these global Nr emissions are likely to increase in the next decades, followed by a

  14. Analysis of emission data from global commercial aviation: 2004 and 2006

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilkerson, J. T.; Jacobson, M. Z.; Malwitz, A.; Balasubramanian, S.; Wayson, R.; Fleming, G.; Naiman, A. D.; Lele, S. K.

    2010-07-01

    The global commercial aircraft fleet in 2006 flew 31.26 million flights, burned 188.20 million metric tons of fuel, and covered 38.68 billion kilometers. This activity emitted substantial amounts of fossil-fuel combustion products within the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere that affect atmospheric composition and climate. The emissions products, such as carbon monoxide, carbon dioxide, oxides of nitrogen, sulfur compounds, and particulate matter, are not emitted uniformly over the Earth, so understanding the temporal and spatial distributions is important for modeling aviation's climate impacts. Global commercial aircraft emission data for 2004 and 2006, provided by the Volpe National Transportation Systems Center, were computed using the Federal Aviation Administration's Aviation Environmental Design Tool (AEDT). Continuous improvement in methodologies, including changes in AEDT's horizontal track methodologies, and an increase in availability of data make some differences between the 2004 and 2006 inventories incomparable. Furthermore, the 2004 inventory contained a significant over-count due to an imperfect data merge and daylight savings error. As a result, the 2006 emissions inventory is considered more representative of actual flight activity. Here, we analyze both 2004 and 2006 emissions, focusing on the latter, and provide corrected totals for 2004. Analysis of 2006 flight data shows that 92.5% of fuel was burned in the Northern Hemisphere, 69.0% between 30N and 60N latitudes, and 74.6% was burned above 7 km. This activity led to 162.25 Tg of carbon from CO2 emitted globally in 2006, more than half over three regions: the United States (25.5%), Europe (14.6), and East Asia (11.1). Despite receiving less than one percent of global emissions, the Arctic receives a uniformly dispersed concentration of emissions with 95.2% released at altitude where they have longer residence time than surface emissions. Finally, 85.2% of all flights by number in 2006

  15. Analysis of emission data from global commercial aviation: 2004 and 2006

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. T. Wilkerson

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available The global commercial aircraft fleet in 2006 flew 31.26 million flights, burned 188.20 million metric tons of fuel, and covered 38.68 billion kilometers. This activity emitted substantial amounts of fossil-fuel combustion products within the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere that affect atmospheric composition and climate. The emissions products, such as carbon monoxide, carbon dioxide, oxides of nitrogen, sulfur compounds, and particulate matter, are not emitted uniformly over the Earth, so understanding the temporal and spatial distributions is important for modeling aviation's climate impacts. Global commercial aircraft emission data for 2004 and 2006, provided by the Volpe National Transportation Systems Center, were computed using the Federal Aviation Administration's Aviation Environmental Design Tool (AEDT. Continuous improvement in methodologies, including changes in AEDT's horizontal track methodologies, and an increase in availability of data make some differences between the 2004 and 2006 inventories incomparable. Furthermore, the 2004 inventory contained a significant over-count due to an imperfect data merge and daylight savings error. As a result, the 2006 emissions inventory is considered more representative of actual flight activity. Here, we analyze both 2004 and 2006 emissions, focusing on the latter, and provide corrected totals for 2004. Analysis of 2006 flight data shows that 92.5% of fuel was burned in the Northern Hemisphere, 69.0% between 30N and 60N latitudes, and 74.6% was burned above 7 km. This activity led to 162.25 Tg of carbon from CO2 emitted globally in 2006, more than half over three regions: the United States (25.5%, Europe (14.6, and East Asia (11.1. Despite receiving less than one percent of global emissions, the Arctic receives a uniformly dispersed concentration of emissions with 95.2% released at altitude where they have longer residence time than surface emissions. Finally, 85.2% of all

  16. Climate, CO2 and human population impacts on global wildfire emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knorr, W.; Jiang, L.; Arneth, A.

    2016-01-01

    Wildfires are by far the largest contributor to global biomass burning and constitute a large global source of atmospheric traces gases and aerosols. Such emissions have a considerable impact on air quality and constitute a major health hazard. Biomass burning also influences the radiative balance of the atmosphere and is thus not only of societal, but also of significant scientific interest. There is a common perception that climate change will lead to an increase in emissions as hot and dry weather events that promote wildfire will become more common. However, even though a few studies have found that the inclusion of CO2 fertilisation of photosynthesis and changes in human population patterns will tend to somewhat lower predictions of future wildfire emissions, no such study has included full ensemble ranges of both climate predictions and population projections, including the effect of different degrees of urbanisation.Here, we present a series of 124 simulations with the LPJ-GUESS-SIMFIRE global dynamic vegetation-wildfire model, including a semi-empirical formulation for the prediction of burned area based on fire weather, fuel continuity and human population density. The simulations use Climate Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) climate predictions from eight Earth system models. These were combined with two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and five scenarios of future human population density based on the series of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) to assess the sensitivity of emissions to the effect of climate, CO2 and humans. In addition, two alternative parameterisations of the semi-empirical burned-area model were applied. Contrary to previous work, we find no clear future trend of global wildfire emissions for the moderate emissions and climate change scenario based on the RCP 4.5. Only historical population change introduces a decline by around 15 % since 1900. Future emissions could either increase for low population growth and

  17. The integrated global temperature change potential (iGTP) and relationships between emission metrics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peters, Glen P.; Aamaas, Borgar; Berntsen, Terje; Fuglestvedt, Jan S.

    2011-12-01

    The Kyoto Protocol compares greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) using the global warming potential (GWP) with a 100 yr time-horizon. The GWP was developed, however, to illustrate the difficulties in comparing GHGs. In response, there have been many critiques of the GWP and several alternative emission metrics have been proposed. To date, there has been little focus on understanding the linkages between, and interpretations of, different emission metrics. We use an energy balance model to mathematically link the absolute GWP, absolute global temperature change potential (AGTP), absolute ocean heat perturbation (AOHP), and integrated AGTP. For pulse emissions, energy conservation requires that AOHP = AGWP - iAGTP/λ and hence AGWP and iAGTP are closely linked and converge as AOHP decays to zero. When normalizing the metrics with CO2 (GWP, GTP, and iGTP), we find that the iGTP and GWP are similar numerically for a wide range of GHGs and time-horizons, except for very short-lived species. The similarity between the iGTPX and GWPX depends on how well a pulse emission of CO2 can substitute for a pulse emission of X across a range of time-horizons. The ultimate choice of emission metric(s) and time-horizon(s) depends on policy objectives. To the extent that limiting integrated temperature change over a specific time-horizon is consistent with the broader objectives of climate policy, our analysis suggests that the GWP represents a relatively robust, transparent and policy-relevant emission metric.

  18. Global health benefits of mitigating ozone pollution with methane emission controls

    Science.gov (United States)

    West, J. Jason; Fiore, Arlene M.; Horowitz, Larry W.; Mauzerall, Denise L.

    2006-03-01

    Methane (CH4) contributes to the growing global background concentration of tropospheric ozone (O3), an air pollutant associated with premature mortality. Methane and ozone are also important greenhouse gases. Reducing methane emissions therefore decreases surface ozone everywhere while slowing climate warming, but although methane mitigation has been considered to address climate change, it has not for air quality. Here we show that global decreases in surface ozone concentrations, due to methane mitigation, result in substantial and widespread decreases in premature human mortality. Reducing global anthropogenic methane emissions by 20% beginning in 2010 would decrease the average daily maximum 8-h surface ozone by 1 part per billion by volume globally. By using epidemiologic ozone-mortality relationships, this ozone reduction is estimated to prevent 30,000 premature all-cause mortalities globally in 2030, and 370,000 between 2010 and 2030. If only cardiovascular and respiratory mortalities are considered, 17,000 global mortalities can be avoided in 2030. The marginal cost-effectiveness of this 20% methane reduction is estimated to be 420,000 per avoided mortality. If avoided mortalities are valued at 1 million each, the benefit is 240 per tonne of CH4 (12 per tonne of CO2 equivalent), which exceeds the marginal cost of the methane reduction. These estimated air pollution ancillary benefits of climate-motivated methane emission reductions are comparable with those estimated previously for CO2. Methane mitigation offers a unique opportunity to improve air quality globally and can be a cost-effective component of international ozone management, bringing multiple benefits for air quality, public health, agriculture, climate, and energy. human health | mortality | tropospheric ozone | air quality

  19. Creating a Global Grid of Distributed Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions from Nighttime Satellite Imagery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benjamin T. Tuttle

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available The potential use of satellite observed nighttime lights for estimating carbon-dioxide (CO2 emissions has been demonstrated in several previous studies. However, the procedures for a moderate resolution (1 km2 grid cells global map of fossil fuel CO2 emissions based on nighttime lights are still in the developmental phase. We report on the development of a method for mapping distributed fossil fuel CO2 emissions (excluding electric power utilities at 30 arc-seconds or approximately 1 km2 resolution using nighttime lights data collected by the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program’s Operational Linescan System (DMSP-OLS. A regression model, Model 1, was initially developed based on carbon emissions from five sectors of the Vulcan data produced by the Purdue University and a nighttime satellite image of the U.S. The coefficient derived through Model 1 was applied to the global nighttime image but it resulted in underestimation of CO2 emissions for most of the world’s countries, and the states of the U.S. Thus, a second model, Model 2 was developed by allocating the distributed CO2 emissions (excluding emissions from utilities using a combination of DMSP-OLS nighttime image and population count data from the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE LandScan grid. The CO2 emissions were distributed in proportion to the brightness of the DMSP nighttime lights in areas where lighting was detected. In areas with no DMSP detected lighting, the CO2 emissions were distributed based on population count, with the assumption that people who live in these areas emit half as much CO2 as people who live in the areas with DMSP detected lighting. The results indicate that the relationship between satellite observed nighttime lights and CO2 emissions is complex, with differences between sectors and variations in lighting practices between countries. As a result it is not possible to make independent estimates of CO2 emissions with currently available coarse

  20. Global top-down smoke aerosol emissions estimation using satellite fire radiative power measurements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Ichoku

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Biomass burning occurs seasonally in most vegetated parts of the world, consuming large amounts of biomass fuel, generating intense heat energy, and emitting corresponding amounts of smoke plumes that comprise different species of aerosols and trace gases. Accurate estimates of these emissions are required as model inputs to evaluate and forecast smoke plume transport and impacts on air quality, human health, clouds, weather, radiation, and climate. Emissions estimates have long been based on bottom-up approaches that are not only complex, but also fraught with compounding uncertainties. Fortunately, a series of recent studies have revealed that both the rate of biomass consumption and the rate of emission of aerosol particulate matter (PM by open biomass burning are directly proportional to the rate of release of fire radiative energy (FRE, which is fire radiative power (FRP that is measurable from satellite. This direct relationship enables the determination of coefficients of emission (Ce, which can be used to convert FRP or FRE to smoke aerosol emissions in the same manner as emission factors (EFs are used to convert burned biomass to emissions. We have leveraged this relationship to generate the first global 1° × 1° gridded Ce product for smoke aerosol or total particulate matter (TPM emissions using coincident measurements of FRP and aerosol optical thickness (AOT from the Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectro-radiometer (MODIS sensors aboard the Terra and Aqua satellites. This new Fire Energetics and Emissions Research version 1.0 (FEER.v1 Ce product has now been released to the community and can be obtained from http://feer.gsfc.nasa.gov/, along with the corresponding 1-to-1 mapping of their quality assurance (QA flags that will enable the Ce values to be filtered by quality for use in various applications. The regional averages of Ce values for different ecosystem types were found to be in the ranges of: 16–21 g MJ−1 for savanna

  1. Global atmospheric emissions and transport of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons: Evaluation of modeling and transboundary pollution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Huizhong; Tao, Shu

    2014-05-01

    Global atmospheric emissions of 16 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) from 69 major sources were estimated for a period from 1960 to 2030. Regression models and a technology split method were used to estimated country and time specific emission factors, resulting in a new estimate of PAH emission factor variation among different countries and over time. PAH emissions in 2007 were spatially resolved to 0.1° × 0.1° grids based on a newly developed global high-resolution fuel combustion inventory (PKU-FUEL-2007). MOZART-4 (The Model for Ozone and Related Chemical Tracers, version 4) was applied to simulate the global tropospheric transport of Benzo(a)pyrene, one of the high molecular weight carcinogenic PAHs, at a horizontal resolution of 1.875° (longitude) × 1.8947° (latitude). The reaction with OH radical, gas/particle partitioning, wet deposition, dry deposition, and dynamic soil/ocean-air exchange of PAHs were considered. The simulation was validated by observations at both background and non-background sites, including Alert site in Canadian High Arctic, EMEP sites in Europe, and other 254 urban/rural sites reported from literatures. Key factors effecting long-range transport of BaP were addressed, and transboundary pollution was discussed.

  2. HTAP_v2.2: a mosaic of regional and global emission grid maps for 2008 and 2010 to study hemispheric transport of air pollution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janssens-Maenhout, G.; Crippa, M.; Guizzardi, D.; Dentener, F.; Muntean, M.; Pouliot, G.; Keating, T.; Zhang, Q.; Kurokawa, J.; Wankmüller, R.; Denier van der Gon, H.; Kuenen, J. J. P.; Klimont, Z.; Frost, G.; Darras, S.; Koffi, B.; Li, M.

    2015-10-01

    The mandate of the Task Force Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (TF HTAP) under the Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution (CLRTAP) is to improve the scientific understanding of the intercontinental air pollution transport, to quantify impacts on human health, vegetation and climate, to identify emission mitigation options across the regions of the Northern Hemisphere, and to guide future policies on these aspects. The harmonization and improvement of regional emission inventories is imperative to obtain consolidated estimates on the formation of global-scale air pollution. An emissions data set has been constructed using regional emission grid maps (annual and monthly) for SO2, NOx, CO, NMVOC, NH3, PM10, PM2.5, BC and OC for the years 2008 and 2010, with the purpose of providing consistent information to global and regional scale modelling efforts. This compilation of different regional gridded inventories - including that of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) for USA, the EPA and Environment Canada (for Canada), the European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme (EMEP) and Netherlands Organisation for Applied Scientific Research (TNO) for Europe, and the Model Inter-comparison Study for Asia (MICS-Asia III) for China, India and other Asian countries - was gap-filled with the emission grid maps of the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGARv4.3) for the rest of the world (mainly South America, Africa, Russia and Oceania). Emissions from seven main categories of human activities (power, industry, residential, agriculture, ground transport, aviation and shipping) were estimated and spatially distributed on a common grid of 0.1° × 0.1° longitude-latitude, to yield monthly, global, sector-specific grid maps for each substance and year. The HTAP_v2.2 air pollutant grid maps are considered to combine latest available regional information within a complete global data set. The disaggregation by sectors, high spatial and

  3. The effects of potential changes in United States beef production on global grazing systems and greenhouse gas emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dumortier, Jerome; Hayes, Dermot J.; Carriquiry, Miguel; Dong, Fengxia; Du, Xiaodong; Elobeid, Amani; Fabiosa, Jacinto F.; Martin, Pamela A.; Mulik, Kranti

    2012-06-01

    We couple a global agricultural production and trade model with a greenhouse gas model to assess leakage associated with modified beef production in the United States. The effects on emissions from agricultural production (i.e., methane and nitrous oxide emissions from livestock and crop management) as well as from land-use change, especially grazing system, are assessed. We find that a reduction of US beef production induces net carbon emissions from global land-use change ranging from 37 to 85 kg CO2-equivalent per kg of beef annualized over 20 years. The increase in emissions is caused by an inelastic domestic demand as well as more land-intensive cattle production systems internationally. Changes in livestock production systems such as increasing stocking rate could partially offset emission increases from pasture expansion. In addition, net emissions from enteric fermentation increase because methane emissions per kilogram of beef tend to be higher globally.

  4. Global atmospheric response to emissions from a proposed reusable space launch system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larson, Erik J. L.; Portmann, Robert W.; Rosenlof, Karen H.; Fahey, David W.; Daniel, John S.; Ross, Martin N.

    2017-01-01

    Modern reusable launch vehicle technology may allow high flight rate space transportation at low cost. Emissions associated with a hydrogen fueled reusable rocket system are modeled based on the launch requirements of developing a space-based solar power system that generates present-day global electric energy demand. Flight rates from 104 to 106 per year are simulated and sustained to a quasisteady state. For the assumed rocket engine, H2O and NOX are the primary emission products; this also includes NOX produced during reentry heating. For a base case of 105 flights per year, global stratospheric and mesospheric water vapor increase by approximately 10 and 100%, respectively. As a result, high-latitude cloudiness increases in the lower stratosphere and near the mesopause by as much as 20%. Increased water vapor also results in global effective radiative forcing of about 0.03 W/m2. NOX produced during reentry exceeds meteoritic production by more than an order of magnitude, and along with in situ stratospheric emissions, results in a 0.5% loss of the globally averaged ozone column, with column losses in the polar regions exceeding 2%.

  5. A review of the global emissions, transport and effects of heavy metals in the environment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Friedman, J.R.; Ashton, W.B.; Rapoport, R.D.

    1993-06-01

    The purpose of this report is to describe the current state of knowledge regarding the sources and quantities of heavy metal emissions, their transport and fate, their potential health and environmental effects, and strategies to control them. The approach is to review the literature on this topic and to consult with experts in the field. Ongoing research activities and research needs are discussed. Estimates of global anthropogenic and natural emissions indicate that anthropogenic emissions are responsible for most of the heavy metals released into the atmosphere and that industrial activities have had a significant impact on the global cycling of trace metals. The largest anthropogenic sources of trace metals are coal combustion and the nonferrous metal industry. Atmospheric deposition is an important pathway by which trace metals enter the environment. Atmospheric deposition varies according to the solubility of the element and the length of time it resides in the atmosphere. Evidence suggests that deposition is influenced by other chemicals in the atmosphere, such as ozone and sulfur dioxide. Trace metals also enter the environment through leaching. Existing emissions-control technologies such as electrostatic precipitators, baghouses, and scrubbers are designed to remove other particulates from the flue gas of coal-fired power plants and are only partially effective at removing heavy metals. Emerging technologies such as flue gas desulfurization, lignite coke, and fluidized bed combustion could further reduce emissions. 108 refs.

  6. Evolution of the global inequality in greenhouse gases emissions using multidimensional generalized entropy measures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Remuzgo, Lorena; Trueba, Carmen; Sarabia, José María

    2016-02-01

    Given the cumulative consequences of climate change, global concentration of greenhouse gases (GHGs) must be reduced; being inequality in per-capita emissions levels a problem to achieve a commitment by all countries. Thus, the evolution of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions inequality has received special attention because CO2 is the most abundant GHG in the atmosphere. However, it is necessary to consider other gases to provide a real illustration of our starting point to achieve a multilateral agreement. In this paper, we study the evolution of global inequality in GHGs emissions during the period 1990-2011, considering the four main gases: CO2, methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O) and fluorinated gases (F-gases). The data used in this analysis is taken from the World Resources Institute (2014) and the groups of countries are constructed according to the quantity of emissions that each country released into the atmosphere in the first year of study. For this purpose we use the multidimensional generalized entropy measures proposed by Maasoumi (1986) that can be decomposable into the between- and within-group inequality components. The biggest fall in inequality is observed when we attach more weight to the emissions transfers between the most polluting countries and assume a low substitution degree among pollutants. Finally, some economic policy implications are commented.

  7. A review of the global emissions, transport and effects of heavy metals in the environment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Friedman, J.R.; Ashton, W.B.; Rapoport, R.D.

    1993-06-01

    The purpose of this report is to describe the current state of knowledge regarding the sources and quantities of heavy metal emissions, their transport and fate, their potential health and environmental effects, and strategies to control them. The approach is to review the literature on this topic and to consult with experts in the field. Ongoing research activities and research needs are discussed. Estimates of global anthropogenic and natural emissions indicate that anthropogenic emissions are responsible for most of the heavy metals released into the atmosphere and that industrial activities have had a significant impact on the global cycling of trace metals. The largest anthropogenic sources of trace metals are coal combustion and the nonferrous metal industry. Atmospheric deposition is an important pathway by which trace metals enter the environment. Atmospheric deposition varies according to the solubility of the element and the length of time it resides in the atmosphere. Evidence suggests that deposition is influenced by other chemicals in the atmosphere, such as ozone and sulfur dioxide. Trace metals also enter the environment through leaching. Existing emissions-control technologies such as electrostatic precipitators, baghouses, and scrubbers are designed to remove other particulates from the flue gas of coal-fired power plants and are only partially effective at removing heavy metals. Emerging technologies such as flue gas desulfurization, lignite coke, and fluidized bed combustion could further reduce emissions. 108 refs.

  8. Global production, use, and emission volumes of short-chain chlorinated paraffins - A minimum scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glüge, Juliane; Wang, Zhanyun; Bogdal, Christian; Scheringer, Martin; Hungerbühler, Konrad

    2016-12-15

    Short-chain chlorinated paraffins (SCCPs) show high persistence, bioaccumulation potential, and toxicity (PBT properties). Consequently, restrictions on production and use have been enforced in several countries/regions. The Stockholm Convention on Persistent Organic Pollutants recognized the PBT properties and long-range transport potential of SCCPs in 2015 and is now evaluating a possible global phase-out or restrictions. In this context, it is relevant to know which countries are producing/using SCCPs and in which amounts, and which applications contribute most to their environmental emissions. To provide a first comprehensive overview, we review and integrate all publicly available data on the global production and use of both chlorinated paraffins (CPs) as a whole and specifically SCCPs. Considerable amount of data on production/use of CPs and SCCPs are missing. Based on the available data and reported emission factors, we estimate the past and current worldwide SCCP emissions from individual applications. Using the available data as a minimum scenario, we conclude: (i) SCCP production and use is increasing, with the current worldwide production volume being 165,000t/year at least, whereas the global production of total CPs exceeds 1milliont/year. (ii) The worldwide release of SCCPs from their production and use to air, surface water, and soil between 1935 and 2012 has been in the range of 1690-41,400t, 1660-105,000t, and 9460-81,000t, respectively. (iii) The SCCP manufacture and use in PVC, the use in metal working applications and sealants/adhesives, and the use in plastics and rubber contribute most to the emissions to air, surface water, and soil. Thus, the decrease in the environmental emissions of SCCPs requires reduction of SCCP use in (almost) all applications. (iv) Emissions due to the disposal of waste SCCPs cannot be accurately estimated, because relevant information is missing. Instead, we conduct a scenario analysis to provide some insights into

  9. Offsetting global warming-induced elevated greenhouse gas emissions from an arable soil by biochar application.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bamminger, Chris; Poll, Christian; Marhan, Sven

    2017-08-17

    Global warming will likely enhance greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from soils. Due to its slow decomposability, biochar is widely recognized as effective in long-term soil carbon (C) sequestration and in mitigation of soil GHG emissions. In a long-term soil warming experiment (+2.5 °C, since July 2008) we studied the effect of applying high-temperature Miscanthus biochar (0, 30 t/ha, since August 2013) on GHG emissions and their global warming potential (GWP) during 2 years in a temperate agroecosystem. Crop growth, physical and chemical soil properties, temperature sensitivity of soil respiration (Rs ), and metabolic quotient (qCO2 ) were investigated to yield further information about single effects of soil warming and biochar as well as on their interactions. Soil warming increased total CO2 emissions by 28% over 2 years. The effect of warming on soil respiration did not level off as has often been observed in less intensively managed ecosystems. However, the temperature sensitivity of soil respiration was not affected by warming. Overall, biochar had no effect on most of the measured parameters, suggesting its high degradation stability and its low influence on microbial C cycling even under elevated soil temperatures. In contrast, biochar × warming interactions led to higher total N2 O emissions, possibly due to accelerated N-cycling at elevated soil temperature and to biochar-induced changes in soil properties and environmental conditions. Methane uptake was not affected by soil warming or biochar. The incorporation of biochar-C into soil was estimated to offset warming-induced elevated GHG emissions for 25 years. Our results highlight the suitability of biochar for C sequestration in cultivated temperate agricultural soil under a future elevated temperature. However, the increased N2 O emissions under warming limit the GHG mitigation potential of biochar. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  10. Impacts of Global Emissions of CO, NOx, and CH4 on China Tropospheric Hydroxyl Free Radicals

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SU Mingfeng; LIN Yunping; FAN Xinqiang; PENG Li; ZHAO Chunsheng

    2012-01-01

    Using the global chemistry and transport model MOZART,the simulated distributions of tropospheric hydroxyl free radicals (OH) over China and its sensitivities to global emissions of carbon monoxide (CO),nitrogen oxide (NOx),and methane (CH4) were investigated in this study.Due to various distributions of OH sources and sinks,the concentrations of tropospheric OH in east China are much greater than in west China.The contribution of NO + perhydroxyl radical (HO2) reaction to OH production in east China is more pronounced than that in west China,and because of the higher reaction activity of non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs),the contributions to OH loss by NMVOCs exceed those of CO and take the dominant position in summer.The results of the sensitivity runs show a significant increase of tropospheric OH in east China from 1990 to 2000,and the trend continues.The positive effect of double emissions of NOx on OH is partly offset by the contrary effect of increased CO and CH4 emissions:the double emissions of NOx will cause an increase of OH of 18.1%-30.1%,while the increases of CO and CH4 will cause a decrease of OH of 12.2%-20.8% and 0.3%-3.0%,respectively.In turn,the lifetimes of CH4,CO,and NOx will increase by 0.3%-3.1% with regard to double emissions of CH4,13.9%-26.3% to double emissions of CO and decrease by 15.3%-23.2% to double emissions of NOx.

  11. Soil organic carbon dust emission: an omitted global source of atmospheric CO2.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chappell, Adrian; Webb, Nicholas P; Butler, Harry J; Strong, Craig L; McTainsh, Grant H; Leys, John F; Viscarra Rossel, Raphael A

    2013-10-01

    Soil erosion redistributes soil organic carbon (SOC) within terrestrial ecosystems, to the atmosphere and oceans. Dust export is an essential component of the carbon (C) and carbon dioxide (CO(2)) budget because wind erosion contributes to the C cycle by removing selectively SOC from vast areas and transporting C dust quickly offshore; augmenting the net loss of C from terrestrial systems. However, the contribution of wind erosion to rates of C release and sequestration is poorly understood. Here, we describe how SOC dust emission is omitted from national C accounting, is an underestimated source of CO(2) and may accelerate SOC decomposition. Similarly, long dust residence times in the unshielded atmospheric environment may considerably increase CO(2) emission. We developed a first approximation to SOC enrichment for a well-established dust emission model and quantified SOC dust emission for Australia (5.83 Tg CO(2)-e yr(-1)) and Australian agricultural soils (0.4 Tg CO(2)-e yr(-1)). These amount to underestimates for CO(2) emissions of ≈10% from combined C pools in Australia (year = 2000), ≈5% from Australian Rangelands and ≈3% of Australian Agricultural Soils by Kyoto Accounting. Northern hemisphere countries with greater dust emission than Australia are also likely to have much larger SOC dust emission. Therefore, omission of SOC dust emission likely represents a considerable underestimate from those nations' C accounts. We suggest that the omission of SOC dust emission from C cycling and C accounting is a significant global source of uncertainty. Tracing the fate of wind-eroded SOC in the dust cycle is therefore essential to quantify the release of CO(2) from SOC dust to the atmosphere and the contribution of SOC deposition to downwind C sinks.

  12. HTAP_v2: a mosaic of regional and global emission gridmaps for 2008 and 2010 to study hemispheric transport of air pollution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Janssens-Maenhout

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available The mandate of the Task Force Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (HTAP under the Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution (CLRTAP is to improve the scientific understanding of the intercontinental air pollution transport, to quantify impacts on human health, vegetation and climate, to identify emission mitigation options across the regions of the Northern Hemisphere, and to guide future policies on these aspects. The harmonization and improvement of regional emission inventories is imperative to obtain consolidated estimates on the formation of global-scale air pollution. An emissions dataset has been constructed using regional emission gridmaps (annual and monthly for SO2, NOx, CO, NMVOC, NH3, PM10, PM2.5, BC and OC for the years 2008 and 2010, with the purpose of providing consistent information to global and regional scale modelling efforts. This compilation of different regional gridded inventories, including the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA's for USA, EPA and Environment Canada's for Canada, the European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme (EMEP and Netherlands Organisation for Applied Scientific Research (TNO's for Europe, and the Model Inter-comparison Study in Asia (MICS-Asia's for China, India and other Asian countries, was gap-filled with the emission gridmaps of the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGARv4.3 for the rest of the world (mainly South-America, Africa, Russia and Oceania. Emissions from seven main categories of human activities (power, industry, residential, agriculture, ground transport, aviation and shipping were estimated and spatially distributed on a common grid of 0.1° × 0.1° longitude–latitude, to yield monthly, global, sector-specific gridmaps for each substance and year. The HTAP_v2.2 air pollutant gridmaps are considered to combine latest available regional information within a complete global dataset. The disaggregation by sectors, high spatial and temporal

  13. HTAP_v2: a mosaic of regional and global emission gridmaps for 2008 and 2010 to study hemispheric transport of air pollution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janssens-Maenhout, G.; Crippa, M.; Guizzardi, D.; Dentener, F.; Muntean, M.; Pouliot, G.; Keating, T.; Zhang, Q.; Kurokawa, J.; Wankmüller, R.; Denier van der Gon, H.; Klimont, Z.; Frost, G.; Darras, S.; Koffi, B.

    2015-04-01

    The mandate of the Task Force Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (HTAP) under the Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution (CLRTAP) is to improve the scientific understanding of the intercontinental air pollution transport, to quantify impacts on human health, vegetation and climate, to identify emission mitigation options across the regions of the Northern Hemisphere, and to guide future policies on these aspects. The harmonization and improvement of regional emission inventories is imperative to obtain consolidated estimates on the formation of global-scale air pollution. An emissions dataset has been constructed using regional emission gridmaps (annual and monthly) for SO2, NOx, CO, NMVOC, NH3, PM10, PM2.5, BC and OC for the years 2008 and 2010, with the purpose of providing consistent information to global and regional scale modelling efforts. This compilation of different regional gridded inventories, including the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)'s for USA, EPA and Environment Canada's for Canada, the European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme (EMEP) and Netherlands Organisation for Applied Scientific Research (TNO)'s for Europe, and the Model Inter-comparison Study in Asia (MICS-Asia)'s for China, India and other Asian countries, was gap-filled with the emission gridmaps of the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGARv4.3) for the rest of the world (mainly South-America, Africa, Russia and Oceania). Emissions from seven main categories of human activities (power, industry, residential, agriculture, ground transport, aviation and shipping) were estimated and spatially distributed on a common grid of 0.1° × 0.1° longitude-latitude, to yield monthly, global, sector-specific gridmaps for each substance and year. The HTAP_v2.2 air pollutant gridmaps are considered to combine latest available regional information within a complete global dataset. The disaggregation by sectors, high spatial and temporal resolution and

  14. 4 km AVHRR Pathfinder v5.0 Global Day-Night Sea Surface Temperature Monthly and Yearly Averages, 1985-2009 (NODC Accession 0077816)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This data set contains a set of monthly and yearly global day-night sea surface temperature averages, derived from the AVHRR Pathfinder Version 5 sea surface...

  15. TOMS/Nimbus-7 UV Reflectivity Monthly L3 Global 1x1.25 deg Lat/Lon Grid V008

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This data product contains TOMS/Nimbus-7 UV Reflectivity Monthly L3 Global 1x1.25 deg Lat/Lon Grid Version 8 data in ASCII format. The Total Ozone Mapping...

  16. Synoptic monthly gridded Global Temperature and Salinity Profile Programme (GTSPP) water temperature and salinity from January 1990 to December 2009 (NCEI Accession 0138647)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The synoptic gridded Global Temperature and Salinity Profile Programme (SG-GTSPP) provides world ocean 3D gridded temperature and salinity data in monthly increment...

  17. Nine years of global hydrocarbon emissions based on source inversion of OMI formaldehyde observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauwens, Maite; Stavrakou, Trissevgeni; Müller, Jean-François; De Smedt, Isabelle; Van Roozendael, Michel; van der Werf, Guido R.; Wiedinmyer, Christine; Kaiser, Johannes W.; Sindelarova, Katerina; Guenther, Alex

    2016-08-01

    As formaldehyde (HCHO) is a high-yield product in the oxidation of most volatile organic compounds (VOCs) emitted by fires, vegetation, and anthropogenic activities, satellite observations of HCHO are well-suited to inform us on the spatial and temporal variability of the underlying VOC sources. The long record of space-based HCHO column observations from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) is used to infer emission flux estimates from pyrogenic and biogenic volatile organic compounds (VOCs) on the global scale over 2005-2013. This is realized through the method of source inverse modeling, which consists in the optimization of emissions in a chemistry-transport model (CTM) in order to minimize the discrepancy between the observed and modeled HCHO columns. The top-down fluxes are derived in the global CTM IMAGESv2 by an iterative minimization algorithm based on the full adjoint of IMAGESv2, starting from a priori emission estimates provided by the newly released GFED4s (Global Fire Emission Database, version 4s) inventory for fires, and by the MEGAN-MOHYCAN inventory for isoprene emissions. The top-down fluxes are compared to two independent inventories for fire (GFAS and FINNv1.5) and isoprene emissions (MEGAN-MACC and GUESS-ES). The inversion indicates a moderate decrease (ca. 20 %) in the average annual global fire and isoprene emissions, from 2028 Tg C in the a priori to 1653 Tg C for burned biomass, and from 343 to 272 Tg for isoprene fluxes. Those estimates are acknowledged to depend on the accuracy of formaldehyde data, as well as on the assumed fire emission factors and the oxidation mechanisms leading to HCHO production. Strongly decreased top-down fire fluxes (30-50 %) are inferred in the peak fire season in Africa and during years with strong a priori fluxes associated with forest fires in Amazonia (in 2005, 2007, and 2010), bushfires in Australia (in 2006 and 2011), and peat burning in Indonesia (in 2006 and 2009), whereas generally increased fluxes

  18. Assessing climate change impacts, benefits of mitigation, and uncertainties on major global forest regions under multiple socioeconomic and emissions scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    John B Kim; Erwan Monier; Brent Sohngen; G Stephen Pitts; Ray Drapek; James McFarland; Sara Ohrel; Jefferson Cole

    2016-01-01

    We analyze a set of simulations to assess the impact of climate change on global forests where MC2 dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) was run with climate simulations from the MIT Integrated Global System Model-Community Atmosphere Model (IGSM-CAM) modeling framework. The core study relies on an ensemble of climate simulations under two emissions scenarios: a...

  19. Modeling Aircraft Emissions for Regional-scale Air Quality: Adapting a New Global Aircraft Emissions Database for the U.S

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arunachalam, S.; Baek, B. H.; Vennam, P. L.; Woody, M. C.; Omary, M.; Binkowski, F.; Fleming, G.

    2012-12-01

    Commercial aircraft emit substantial amounts of pollutants during their complete activity cycle that ranges from landing-and-takeoff (LTO) at airports to cruising in upper elevations of the atmosphere, and affect both air quality and climate. Since these emissions are not uniformly emitted over the earth, and have substantial temporal and spatial variability, it is vital to accurately evaluate and quantify the relative impacts of aviation emissions on ambient air quality. Regional-scale air quality modeling applications do not routinely include these aircraft emissions from all cycles. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has developed the Aviation Environmental Design Tool (AEDT), a software system that dynamically models aircraft performance in space and time to calculate fuel burn and emissions from gate-to-gate for all commercial aviation activity from all airports globally. To process in-flight aircraft emissions and to provide a realistic representation of these for treatment in grid-based air quality models, we have developed an interface processor called AEDTproc that accurately distributes full-flight chorded emissions in time and space to create gridded, hourly model-ready emissions input data. Unlike the traditional emissions modeling approach of treating aviation emissions as ground-level sources or processing emissions only from the LTO cycles in regional-scale air quality studies, AEDTproc distributes chorded inventories of aircraft emissions during LTO cycles and cruise activities into a time-variant 3-D gridded structure. We will present results of processed 2006 global emissions from AEDT over a continental U.S. modeling domain to support a national-scale air quality assessment of the incremental impacts of aircraft emissions on surface air quality. This includes about 13.6 million flights within the U.S. out of 31.2 million flights globally. We will focus on assessing spatio-temporal variability of these commercial aircraft emissions, and

  20. Sub-millimeter to centimeter excess emission from the Magellanic Clouds. I. Global spectral energy distribution

    CERN Document Server

    Israel, F P; Raban, D; Reach, W T; Bot, C; Oonk, J B R; Ysard, N; Bernard, J P

    2010-01-01

    In order to reconstruct the global SEDs of the Magellanic Clouds over eight decades in spectral range, we combined literature flux densities representing the entire LMC and SMC respectively, and complemented these with maps extracted from the WMAP and COBE databases covering the missing the 23--90 GHz (13--3.2 mm) and the poorly sampled 1.25--250 THz (240--1.25 micron). We have discovered a pronounced excess of emission from both Magellanic Clouds, but especially the SMC, at millimeter and sub-millimeter wavelengths. We also determined accurate thermal radio fluxes and very low global extinctions for both LMC and SMC. Possible explanations are briefly considered but as long as the nature of the excess emission is unknown, the total dust masses and gas-to-dust ratios of the Magellanic Clouds cannot reliably be determined.

  1. Present and future impact of aircraft, road traffic and shipping emissions on global tropospheric ozone

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Koffi

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available In this study, the LMDz-INCA climate-chemistry model and up-to-date global emission inventories are used to investigate the "present" (2000 and future (2050 impacts of transport emissions (road traffic, shipping and aircraft on global tropospheric ozone. For the first time, both impacts of emissions and climate changes on transport-induced ozone are investigated. The 2000 transport emissions are shown to mainly affect ozone in the Northern Hemisphere, with a maximum increase of the tropospheric column of up to 5 DU, from the South-Eastern US to Central Europe. The impact is dominated by road traffic in the middle and upper troposphere, north of 40° S, and by shipping in the northern lower troposphere, over oceanic regions. A strong reduction of road emissions and amoderate (B1 scenario to high (A1B scenario increase of the ship and aircraft emissions are expected by the year 2050. As a consequence, LMDz-INCA simulations predict a drastic decrease in the impact of road emissions, whereas aviation would become the major transport perturbation on tropospheric ozone, even in the case of avery optimistic aircraft mitigation scenario. The A1B emission scenario leads to an increase of the impact of transport on zonal mean ozone concentrations in 2050 by up to +30% and +50%, in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, respectively. Despite asimilar total amount of global NOx emissions by the various transport sectors compared to 2000, the overall impact on the tropospheric ozone column is increased everywhere in 2050, due to a sectoral shift in the emissions of the respective transport modes. On the opposite, the B1 mitigation scenario leads to asignificant reduction (by roughly 50% of the ozone perturbation throughout the troposphere compared to 2000.

    Considering climate change, and according to scenario A1B, a decrease of the O3 tropospheric burden is simulated by 2050 due to climate change (−1.2%, whereas an increase

  2. Top-down constraints on atmospheric mercury emissions and implications for global biogeochemical cycling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Song

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available We perform global-scale inverse modeling to constrain present-day atmospheric mercury emissions and relevant physio-chemical parameters in the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model. We use Bayesian inversion methods combining simulations with GEOS-Chem and ground-based Hg0 observations from regional monitoring networks and individual sites in recent years. Using optimized emissions/parameters, GEOS-Chem better reproduces these ground-based observations, and also matches regional over-water Hg0 and wet deposition measurements. The optimized global mercury emission to the atmosphere is ~5.8 Gg yr−1. The ocean accounts for 3.2 Gg yr−1 (55% of the total, and the terrestrial ecosystem is neither a net source nor a net sink of Hg0. The optimized Asian anthropogenic emission of Hg0 (gas elemental mercury is 650–1770 Mg yr−1, higher than its bottom-up estimates (550–800 Mg yr−1. The ocean parameter inversions suggest that dark oxidation of aqueous elemental mercury is faster, and less mercury is removed from the mixed layer through particle sinking, when compared with current simulations. Parameter changes affect the simulated global ocean mercury budget, particularly mass exchange between the mixed layer and subsurface waters. Based on our inversion results, we re-evaluate the long-term global biogeochemical cycle of mercury, and show that legacy mercury becomes more likely to reside in the terrestrial ecosystem than in the ocean. We estimate that primary anthropogenic mercury contributes up to 23% of present-day atmospheric deposition.

  3. Future atmospheric abundances and climate forcings from scenarios of global and regional hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Velders, Guus J. M.; Fahey, David W.; Daniel, John S.; Andersen, Stephen O.; McFarland, Mack

    2015-12-01

    Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) are manufactured for use as substitutes for ozone-depleting substances that are being phased out globally under Montreal Protocol regulations. While HFCs do not deplete ozone, many are potent greenhouse gases that contribute to climate change. Here, new global scenarios show that baseline emissions of HFCs could reach 4.0-5.3 GtCO2-eq yr-1 in 2050. The new baseline (or business-as-usual) scenarios are formulated for 10 HFC compounds, 11 geographic regions, and 13 use categories. The scenarios rely on detailed data reported by countries to the United Nations; projections of gross domestic product and population; and recent observations of HFC atmospheric abundances. In the baseline scenarios, by 2050 China (31%), India and the rest of Asia (23%), the Middle East and northern Africa (11%), and the USA (10%) are the principal source regions for global HFC emissions; and refrigeration (40-58%) and stationary air conditioning (21-40%) are the major use sectors. The corresponding radiative forcing could reach 0.22-0.25 W m-2 in 2050, which would be 12-24% of the increase from business-as-usual CO2 emissions from 2015 to 2050. National regulations to limit HFC use have already been adopted in the European Union, Japan and USA, and proposals have been submitted to amend the Montreal Protocol to substantially reduce growth in HFC use. Calculated baseline emissions are reduced by 90% in 2050 by implementing the North America Montreal Protocol amendment proposal. Global adoption of technologies required to meet national regulations would be sufficient to reduce 2050 baseline HFC consumption by more than 50% of that achieved with the North America proposal for most developed and developing countries.

  4. A new integrated and homogenized global monthly land surface air temperature dataset for the period since 1900

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Wenhui; Li, Qingxiang; Jones, Phil; Wang, Xiaolan L.; Trewin, Blair; Yang, Su; Zhu, Chen; Zhai, Panmao; Wang, Jinfeng; Vincent, Lucie; Dai, Aiguo; Gao, Yun; Ding, Yihui

    2017-06-01

    A new dataset of integrated and homogenized monthly surface air temperature over global land for the period since 1900 [China Meteorological Administration global Land Surface Air Temperature (CMA-LSAT)] is developed. In total, 14 sources have been collected and integrated into the newly developed dataset, including three global (CRUTEM4, GHCN, and BEST), three regional and eight national sources. Duplicate stations are identified, and those with the higher priority are chosen or spliced. Then, a consistency test and a climate outlier test are conducted to ensure that each station series is quality controlled. Next, two steps are adopted to assure the homogeneity of the station series: (1) homogenized station series in existing national datasets (by National Meteorological Services) are directly integrated into the dataset without any changes (50% of all stations), and (2) the inhomogeneities are detected and adjusted for in the remaining data series using a penalized maximal t test (50% of all stations). Based on the dataset, we re-assess the temperature changes in global and regional areas compared with GHCN-V3 and CRUTEM4, as well as the temperature changes during the three periods of 1900-2014, 1979-2014 and 1998-2014. The best estimates of warming trends and there 95% confidence ranges for 1900-2014 are approximately 0.102 ± 0.006 °C/decade for the whole year, and 0.104 ± 0.009, 0.112 ± 0.007, 0.090 ± 0.006, and 0.092 ± 0.007 °C/decade for the DJF (December, January, February), MAM, JJA, and SON seasons, respectively. MAM saw the most significant warming trend in both 1900-2014 and 1979-2014. For an even shorter and more recent period (1998-2014), MAM, JJA and SON show similar warming trends, while DJF shows opposite trends. The results show that the ability of CMA-LAST for describing the global temperature changes is similar with other existing products, while there are some differences when describing regional temperature changes.

  5. Trading Off Global Fuel Supply, CO2 Emissions and Sustainable Development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagner, Liam; Ross, Ian; Foster, John; Hankamer, Ben

    2016-01-01

    The United Nations Conference on Climate Change (Paris 2015) reached an international agreement to keep the rise in global average temperature 'well below 2°C' and to 'aim to limit the increase to 1.5°C'. These reductions will have to be made in the face of rising global energy demand. Here a thoroughly validated dynamic econometric model (Eq 1) is used to forecast global energy demand growth (International Energy Agency and BP), which is driven by an increase of the global population (UN), energy use per person and real GDP (World Bank and Maddison). Even relatively conservative assumptions put a severe upward pressure on forecast global energy demand and highlight three areas of concern. First, is the potential for an exponential increase of fossil fuel consumption, if renewable energy systems are not rapidly scaled up. Second, implementation of internationally mandated CO2 emission controls are forecast to place serious constraints on fossil fuel use from ~2030 onward, raising energy security implications. Third is the challenge of maintaining the international 'pro-growth' strategy being used to meet poverty alleviation targets, while reducing CO2 emissions. Our findings place global economists and environmentalists on the same side as they indicate that the scale up of CO2 neutral renewable energy systems is not only important to protect against climate change, but to enhance global energy security by reducing our dependence of fossil fuels and to provide a sustainable basis for economic development and poverty alleviation. Very hard choices will have to be made to achieve 'sustainable development' goals.

  6. Trading Off Global Fuel Supply, CO2 Emissions and Sustainable Development.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liam Wagner

    Full Text Available The United Nations Conference on Climate Change (Paris 2015 reached an international agreement to keep the rise in global average temperature 'well below 2°C' and to 'aim to limit the increase to 1.5°C'. These reductions will have to be made in the face of rising global energy demand. Here a thoroughly validated dynamic econometric model (Eq 1 is used to forecast global energy demand growth (International Energy Agency and BP, which is driven by an increase of the global population (UN, energy use per person and real GDP (World Bank and Maddison. Even relatively conservative assumptions put a severe upward pressure on forecast global energy demand and highlight three areas of concern. First, is the potential for an exponential increase of fossil fuel consumption, if renewable energy systems are not rapidly scaled up. Second, implementation of internationally mandated CO2 emission controls are forecast to place serious constraints on fossil fuel use from ~2030 onward, raising energy security implications. Third is the challenge of maintaining the international 'pro-growth' strategy being used to meet poverty alleviation targets, while reducing CO2 emissions. Our findings place global economists and environmentalists on the same side as they indicate that the scale up of CO2 neutral renewable energy systems is not only important to protect against climate change, but to enhance global energy security by reducing our dependence of fossil fuels and to provide a sustainable basis for economic development and poverty alleviation. Very hard choices will have to be made to achieve 'sustainable development' goals.

  7. Estimation of monthly global solar radiation in the eastern Mediterranean region in Turkey by using artificial neural networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sahan Muhittin

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In this study, an artificial neural network (ANN model was used to estimate monthly average global solar radiation on a horizontal surface for selected 5 locations in Mediterranean region for period of 18 years (1993-2010. Meteorological and geographical data were taken from Turkish State Meteorological Service. The ANN architecture designed is a feed-forward back-propagation model with one-hidden layer containing 21 neurons with hyperbolic tangent sigmoid as the transfer function and one output layer utilized a linear transfer function (purelin. The training algorithm used in ANN model was the Levenberg Marquand back propagation algorith (trainlm. Results obtained from ANN model were compared with measured meteorological values by using statistical methods. A correlation coefficient of 97.97 (~98% was obtained with root mean square error (RMSE of 0.852 MJ/m2, mean square error (MSE of 0.725 MJ/m2, mean absolute bias error (MABE 10.659MJ/m2, and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE of 4.8%. Results show good agreement between the estimated and measured values of global solar radiation. We suggest that the developed ANN model can be used to predict solar radiation another location and conditions.

  8. Estimation of monthly global solar radiation in the eastern Mediterranean region in Turkey by using artificial neural networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahan, Muhittin; Yakut, Emre

    2016-11-01

    In this study, an artificial neural network (ANN) model was used to estimate monthly average global solar radiation on a horizontal surface for selected 5 locations in Mediterranean region for period of 18 years (1993-2010). Meteorological and geographical data were taken from Turkish State Meteorological Service. The ANN architecture designed is a feed-forward back-propagation model with one-hidden layer containing 21 neurons with hyperbolic tangent sigmoid as the transfer function and one output layer utilized a linear transfer function (purelin). The training algorithm used in ANN model was the Levenberg Marquand back propagation algorith (trainlm). Results obtained from ANN model were compared with measured meteorological values by using statistical methods. A correlation coefficient of 97.97 ( 98%) was obtained with root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.852 MJ/m2, mean square error (MSE) of 0.725 MJ/m2, mean absolute bias error (MABE) 10.659MJ/m2, and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 4.8%. Results show good agreement between the estimated and measured values of global solar radiation. We suggest that the developed ANN model can be used to predict solar radiation another location and conditions.

  9. Impact of H{sub 2} emissions of a global hydrogen economy on the stratosphere

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Grooss, Jens-Uwe; Feck, Thomas; Vogel, Baerbel; Riese, Martin [Forschungszentrum Juelich (Germany)

    2010-07-01

    ''Green'' hydrogen is seen as a major element of the future energy supply to reduce greenhouse gas emissions substantially. However, due to the possible interactions of hydrogen (H{sub 2}) with other atmospheric constituents there is a need to analyse the implications of additional atmospheric H{sub 2} that could result from hydrogen leakage of a global hydrogen infrastructure. Emissions of molecular H{sub 2} can occur along the whole hydrogen process chain which increase the tropospheric H{sub 2} burden. The impact of these emissions is investigated. Figure 1 is a sketch that clarifies the path way and impact of hydrogen in the stratosphere. The air follows the Brewer-Dobson circulation in which air enters the stratosphere through the tropical tropopause, ascends then to the upper stratosphere and finally descends in polar latitudes within a typical transport time frame of 4 to 8 years. (orig.)

  10. Variation of radiative forcings and global warming potentials from regional aviation NOx emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skowron, Agnieszka; Lee, David S.; De León, Ruben R.

    2015-03-01

    The response to hemispherical and regional aircraft NOx emissions is explored by using two climate metrics: radiative forcing (RF) and Global Warming Potential (GWP). The global chemistry transport model, MOZART-3 CTM, is applied in this study for a series of incremental aircraft NOx emission integrations to different regions. It was found that the sensitivity of chemical responses per unit emission rate from regional aircraft NOx emissions varies with size of aircraft NOx emission rate and that climate metric values decrease with increasing aircraft NOx emission rates, except for Southeast Asia. Previous work has recognized that aircraft NOx GWPs may vary regionally. However, the way in which these regional GWPs are calculated are critical. Previous studies have added a fixed amount of NOx to different regions. This approach can heavily bias the results of a regional GWP because of the well-established sensitivity of O3 production to background NOx whereby the Ozone Production Efficiency (OPE) is greater at small background NOx. Thus, even a small addition of NOx in a clean-air area can produce a large O3 response. Using this 'fixed addition' method of 0.035 Tg(N) yr-1, results in the greatest effect observed for North Atlantic and Brazil, ∼10.0 mW m-2/Tg(N) yr-1. An alternative 'proportional approach' is also taken that preserves the subtle balance of local NOx-O3-CH4 systems with the existing emission patterns of aircraft and background NOx, whereby a proportional amount of aircraft NOx, 5% (N) yr-1, is added to each region in order to determine the response. This results in the greatest effect observed for North Pacific that with its net NOx RF of 23.7 mW m-2/Tg(N) yr-1 is in contrast with the 'fixed addition' method. For determining regional NOx GWPs, it is argued that the 'proportional' approach gives more representative results. However, a constraint of both approaches is that the regional GWP determined is dependent on the relative global emission pattern

  11. Estimating global nitrous oxide emissions by lichens and bryophytes with a process-based productivity model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porada, Philipp; Pöschl, Ulrich; Kleidon, Axel; Beer, Christian; Weber, Bettina

    2017-04-01

    Lichens and bryophytes have been shown to release significant amounts of nitrous oxide (N2O), which is a strong greenhouse gas and atmospheric ozone - depleting agent. Relative contributions of lichens and bryophytes to nitrous oxide emissions are largest in dryland and tundra regions, with potential implications for the nitrogen balance of these ecosystems. So far, this estimate is based on large-scale values of net primary productivity of lichens and bryophytes, which are derived from empirical upscaling of field measurements. Productivity is then converted to nitrous oxide emissions by empirical relationships between productivity and respiration, as well as respiration and nitrous oxide release. Alternatively, we quantify nitrous oxide emissions using a global process-based non-vascular vegetation model of lichens and bryophytes. The model simulates photosynthesis and respiration of lichens and bryophytes directly as a function of climatic conditions, such as light and temperature. Nitrous oxide emissions are then derived from simulated respiration, assuming a fixed relationship between the two fluxes, which is based on laboratory experiments under varying environmental conditions. Our approach yields a global estimate of 0.27 (0.19 - 0.35) Tg N2O yr-1 released by lichens and bryophytes. This is at the lower end of the range of a previous, empirical estimate, but corresponds to about 50 % of the atmospheric deposition of nitrous oxide into the oceans or 25 % of the atmospheric deposition on land. We conclude that, while productivity of lichens and bryophytes at large scale is relatively well constrained, improved estimates of their respiration may help to reduce uncertainty of predicted N2O emissions. This is particularly important for quantifying the spatial distribution of N2O emissions by lichens and bryophytes, since simulated respiration shows a different global pattern than productivity. We find that both physiological variation among species as well as

  12. An improved dust emission model with insights into the global dust cycle's climate sensitivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kok, J. F.; Mahowald, N. M.; Albani, S.; Fratini, G.; Gillies, J. A.; Ishizuka, M.; Leys, J. F.; Mikami, M.; Park, M.-S.; Park, S.-U.; Van Pelt, R. S.; Ward, D. S.; Zobeck, T. M.

    2014-03-01

    Simulations of the global dust cycle and its interactions with a changing Earth system are hindered by the empirical nature of dust emission parameterizations in climate models. Here we take a step towards improving global dust cycle simulations by presenting a physically-based dust emission model. The resulting dust flux parameterization depends only on the wind friction speed and the soil's threshold friction speed, and can therefore be readily implemented into climate models. We show that our parameterization's functional form is supported by a compilation of quality-controlled vertical dust flux measurements, and that it better reproduces these measurements than existing parameterizations. Both our theory and measurements indicate that many climate models underestimate the dust flux's sensitivity to soil erodibility. This finding can explain why dust cycle simulations in many models are improved by using an empirical preferential sources function that shifts dust emissions towards the most erodible regions. In fact, implementing our parameterization in a climate model produces even better agreement against aerosol optical depth measurements than simulations that use such a source function. These results indicate that the need to use a source function is at least partially eliminated by the additional physics accounted for by our parameterization. Since soil erodibility is affected by climate changes, our results further suggest that many models have underestimated the climate sensitivity of the global dust cycle.

  13. Scenarios for global emissions from air traffic. The development of regional and gridded (5 degrees x 5 degrees) emissions scenarios for aircraft and for surface sources, based on CPB scenarios and existing emission inventories for aircraft and surface sources

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Olivier JGJ; LAE

    1995-01-01

    An estimate was made of present global emissions from air traffic using statistical information on fuel consumption, aircraft types and applying emission factors for various compounds. To generate scenarios for future emissions from air traffic, assumptions were used regarding the development of the

  14. Parameterization of dust emissions in the global atmospheric chemistry-climate model EMAC: impact of nudging and soil properties

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Astitha

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Airborne desert dust influences radiative transfer, atmospheric chemistry and dynamics, as well as nutrient transport and deposition. It directly and indirectly affects climate on regional and global scales. Two versions of a parameterization scheme to compute desert dust emissions are incorporated into the atmospheric chemistry general circulation model EMAC (ECHAM5/MESSy2.41 Atmospheric Chemistry. One uses a globally uniform soil particle size distribution, whereas the other explicitly accounts for different soil textures worldwide. We have tested these two versions and investigated the sensitivity to input parameters, using remote sensing data from the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET and dust concentrations and deposition measurements from the AeroCom dust benchmark database (and others. The two versions are shown to produce similar atmospheric dust loads in the N-African region, while they deviate in the Asian, Middle Eastern and S-American regions. The dust outflow from Africa over the Atlantic Ocean is accurately simulated by both schemes, in magnitude, location and seasonality. Approximately 70% of the modelled annual deposition data and 70–75% of the modelled monthly aerosol optical depth (AOD in the Atlantic Ocean stations lay in the range 0.5 to 2 times the observations for all simulations. The two versions have similar performance, even though the total annual source differs by ~50%, which underscores the importance of transport and deposition processes (being the same for both versions. Even though the explicit soil particle size distribution is considered more realistic, the simpler scheme appears to perform better in several locations. This paper discusses the differences between the two versions of the dust emission scheme, focusing on their limitations and strengths in describing the global dust cycle and suggests possible future improvements.

  15. Sensitivity of simulated CO2 concentration to regridding of global fossil fuel CO2 emissions

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    X. Zhang

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Errors in the specification or utilization of fossil fuel CO2 emissions within carbon budget or atmospheric CO2 inverse studies can alias the estimation of biospheric and oceanic carbon exchange. A key component in the simulation of CO2 concentrations arising from fossil fuel emissions is the spatial distribution of the emission near coastlines. Finite grid resolution can give rise to mismatches between the emissions and simulated atmospheric dynamics which differ over land or water. We test these mismatches by examining simulated global atmospheric CO2 concentration driven by two different approaches to regridding fossil fuel CO2 emissions. The two approaches are: (1 a commonly-used method that allocates emissions to gridcells with no attempt to ensure dynamical consistency with atmospheric transport; (2 an improved method that reallocates emissions to gridcells to ensure dynamically consistent results. Results show large spatial and temporal differences in the simulated CO2 concentration when comparing these two approaches. The emissions difference ranges from −30.3 Tg C gridcell−1 yr−1 (−3.39 kg C m−2 yr−1 to +30.0 Tg C gridcell−1 yr−1 (+2.6 kg C m−2 yr−1 along coastal margins. Maximum simulated annual mean CO2 concentration differences at the surface exceed ±6 ppm at various locations and times. Examination of the current CO2 monitoring locations during the local afternoon, consistent with inversion modeling system sampling and measurement protocols, finds maximum hourly differences at 38 stations exceed ±0.10 ppm with individual station differences exceeding −32 ppm. The differences implied by not accounting for this dynamical consistency problem are largest at monitoring sites proximal to large coastal urban areas and point sources. These results suggest that studies comparing simulated to observed atmospheric CO2 concentration, such as atmospheric CO2 inversions, must take measures to correct for this potential

  16. Visual Attention to Global and Local Stimulus Properties in 6-Month-Old Infants: Individual Differences and Event-Related Potentials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guy, Maggie W.; Reynolds, Greg D.; Zhang, Dantong

    2013-01-01

    Event-related potentials (ERPs) were utilized in an investigation of 21 six-month-olds' attention to and processing of global and local properties of hierarchical patterns. Overall, infants demonstrated an advantage for processing the overall configuration (i.e., global properties) of local features of hierarchical patterns; however,…

  17. Modeling and evaluation of the global sea-salt aerosol distribution: sensitivity to emission schemes and resolution effects at coastal/orographic sites

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Spada

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available We investigate two of the major sources of uncertainty in the model estimation of the global distribution of sea-salt aerosol, i.e. the sensitivity to the emission parameterization and the influence of model resolution in coastal regions characterized by complex topography and/or steep orographic barriers where some observation sites are located. We evaluate a new sea-salt aerosol lifecycle module implemented within the online chemical transport model NMMB/BSC-CTM. Because of its multiscale core, the model is able to cover a wide range of scales. Global simulations using four state-of-the-art sea-salt emission schemes are evaluated against monthly-averaged aerosol optical depth (AOD from selected AERONET Sun photometers, surface concentration measurements from the University of Miami's Ocean Aerosol Network and measurements from two NOAA/PMEL cruises (AEROINDOEX and ACE1. The model results are highly sensitive to the introduction of SST-dependent emissions and to the accounting of spume particles production. Depending on emission scheme, annual emissions range from 4312.9 Tg to 8979.7 Tg in the 2006. Sea-salt lifetime varies between 7.7 h and 12.0 h and the annual mean column mass load is between 5.9 Tg and 7.9 Tg. Observed coarse AOD monthly averages are reproduced with an overall correlation around 0.8 (a correlation of 0.6 is produced when applying the SST dependent scheme. Although monthly-averaged surface concentrations are overall in good agreement with the observations, there is a subset of coastal sites surrounded by complex topography where the global model overestimates by a factor of 2 or more. Using regional high-resolution simulations, we show that these large errors are mostly due to the global model's inability to capture local scale effects. In New Zeland, the increase in resolution produces a significant decrease of surface concentrations (up to 40% – due to changes in the wind circulation and precipitation driven by the

  18. Impact on aerosol emissions in China and India on local and global climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kühn, Thomas; Partanen, Antti-Ilari; Henriksson, Svante V.; Bergman, Tommi; Laakso, Anton; Kokkola, Harri; Romakkaniemi, Sami; Laaksonen, Ari

    2013-04-01

    Existing surface temperature records show warming in the beginning of last century, followed by cooling starting from 1940 and again strong heating from 1975 until recent years. This behaviour has been attributed to increase in the greenhouse gas and aerosol emission as well as to natural variability of climate. Making a difference between these is crucial as climate predictions and international policy related to emission reductions are based on the models that are mainly evaluated against the historical temperature records. While in Europe and North America the aerosol emissions have decreased since the late 1970s, the emissions in China and India have started to increase dramatically at about the same time and have only recently started to stagnate due to new regulations in China. Here we use emission scenarios from the years 1996 through 2010 to assess the effect that these emissions have on local aerosol properties and climate as well as on the global climate. We use the aerosol-climate model ECHAM5-HAM [Roeckner2003, Roeckner2004] to simulate the local aerosol properties in China and India in the years 1996 through 2010, and their impact on local as well as global climate. For anthropogenic aerosol greenhouse gas emissions we use the ACCMIP-MACCity Aerocom emissions (Aerocom 2) [Lamarque2010] in combination with the emissions for China and India after Lu et. al [Lu2011] for the mentioned period of time. To assess the effect of anthropogenic aerosol emissions on earth's climate is assessed using the ECHAM-HAM model coupled to a mixed layer ocean on a T42L19 grid. The model is run with fixed yearly emissions for several emission scenarios (e.g. for the years 1996 and 2010), with data derived from 100-year averages. Additionally we run a number of transient simulations (i.e. with varying yearly emissions) from 1996 to 2010 in the attempt to extract a climate trend for the given period. References [Roeckner2003] Roeckner, E., Bäuml, R., Bonaventura, L., Brokopf

  19. Atmospheric observations and emissions estimates of methane and nitrous oxide from regional to global scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kort, Eric Adam

    2011-12-01

    Methane (CH4) and Nitrous Oxide (N2O) are the two most significant anthropogenic, long-lived, non-CO2 greenhouse gases, together perturbing the earth's energy balance by an amount comparable to that of CO2. This dissertation will focus on the use of atmospheric observations to quantify emissions of CH4 and N2O. First top-down emissions constraints on the regional scale, covering large areas of the U.S and southern Canada, are derived from airborne observations made in Spring of 2003. Using a receptor-oriented Lagrangian particle dispersion model provides robust validation of bottom-up emission estimates from EDGAR 32FT2000 and GEIA inventories. It is found that EDGAR CH4 emission rates are slightly low by a factor of 1.08 +/- 0.15 (2 sigma), while both EDGAR and GEIA N2O emissions are significantly too low, by factors of 2.62 +/- 0.50 and 3.05 +/- 0.61 respectively. This analysis is then extended over a full calendar year in 2004 with observations from NOAA's tall tower and aircraft profile network. EDGAR 32FT2000 CH 4 emissions are found to be consistent with observations, though the newer EDGAR v4.0 reduces CH4 emissions by 30%, and this reduction is not consistent with this study. Scaling factors found for N2O in May/June of 2003 (2.62 & 3.05) are found to hold for February-May of 2004, suggesting inventories are significantly too low in primary growing season coincident with significant fertilizer inputs. A new instrument for airborne observation of CO2, CH 4, N2O, and CO is introduced, and its operation and in-field performance are highlighted (demonstrated 1-sec precisions of 20 ppb, 0.5 ppb, 0.09 ppb, and 0.15 ppb respectively). Finally, global N2O observations collected with this sensor on the HIPPO (Hlaper Pole to Pole Observations) campaign are assessed. Comparison with a global model and subsequent inversion indicates strong, episodic inputs of nitrous oxide from tropical regions are necessary to bring observations and model in agreement. Findings

  20. Stable isotopes provide revised global limits of aerobic methane emissions from plants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. F. Ferretti

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Recently Keppler et al. (2006 discovered a surprising new source of methane – terrestrial plants under aerobic conditions, with an estimated global production of 62–236 Tg yr−1 by an unknown mechanism. This is ~10–40% of the annual total of methane entering the modern atmosphere and ~30–100% of annual methane entering the pre-industrial (0 to 1700 AD atmosphere. Here we test this reported global production of methane from plants against ice core records of atmospheric methane concentration (CH4 and stable carbon isotope ratios (δ13CH4 over the last 2000 years. Our top-down approach determines that global plant emissions must be much lower than proposed by Keppler et al. (2006 during the last 2000 years and are likely to lie in the range 0–46 Tg yr−1 and 0–176 Tg yr−1 during the pre-industrial and modern eras, respectively.

  1. First space-based derivation of the global atmospheric methanol emission fluxes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stavrakou, T.; Guenther, A.; Razavi, A.; Clarisse, L.; Clerbaux, C.; Coheur, P.-F.; Hurtmans, D.; Karagulian, F.; de Mazière, M.; Vigouroux, C.; Amelynck, C.; Schoon, N.; Laffineur, Q.; Heinesch, B.; Aubinet, M.; Rinsland, C.; Müller, J.-F.

    2011-05-01

    This study provides improved methanol emission estimates on the global scale, in particular for the largest methanol source, the terrestrial biosphere, and for biomass burning. To this purpose, one complete year of spaceborne measurements of tropospheric methanol columns retrieved for the first time by the thermal infrared sensor IASI aboard the MetOp satellite are compared with distributions calculated by the IMAGESv2 global chemistry-transport model. Two model simulations are performed using a priori biogenic methanol emissions either from the new MEGANv2.1 emission model, which is fully described in this work and is based on net ecosystem flux measurements, or from a previous parameterization based on net primary production by Jacob et al. (2005). A significantly better model performance in terms of both amplitude and seasonality is achieved through the use of MEGANv2.1 in most world regions, with respect to IASI data, and to surface- and air-based methanol measurements, even though important discrepancies over several regions are still present. As a second step of this study, we combine the MEGANv2.1 and the IASI column abundances over continents in an inverse modelling scheme based on the adjoint of the IMAGESv2 model to generate an improved global methanol emission source. The global optimized source totals 187 Tg yr-1 with a contribution of 100 Tg yr-1 from plants, only slightly lower than the a priori MEGANv2.1 value of 105 Tg yr-1. Large decreases with respect to the MEGANv2.1 biogenic source are inferred over Amazonia (up to 55 %) and Indonesia (up to 58 %), whereas more moderate reductions are recorded in the Eastern US (20-25 %) and Central Africa (25-35 %). On the other hand, the biogenic source is found to strongly increase in the arid and semi-arid regions of Central Asia (up to a factor of 5) and Western US (factor of 2), probably due to a source of methanol specific to these ecosystems which is unaccounted for in the MEGANv2.1 inventory. The most

  2. High-global warming potential F-gas emissions in California: comparison of ambient-based versus inventory-based emission estimates, and implications of refined estimates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gallagher, Glenn; Zhan, Tao; Hsu, Ying-Kuang; Gupta, Pamela; Pederson, James; Croes, Bart; Blake, Donald R; Barletta, Barbara; Meinardi, Simone; Ashford, Paul; Vetter, Arnie; Saba, Sabine; Slim, Rayan; Palandre, Lionel; Clodic, Denis; Mathis, Pamela; Wagner, Mark; Forgie, Julia; Dwyer, Harry; Wolf, Katy

    2014-01-21

    To provide information for greenhouse gas reduction policies, the California Air Resources Board (CARB) inventories annual emissions of high-global-warming potential (GWP) fluorinated gases, the fastest growing sector of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions globally. Baseline 2008 F-gas emissions estimates for selected chlorofluorocarbons (CFC-12), hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFC-22), and hydrofluorocarbons (HFC-134a) made with an inventory-based methodology were compared to emissions estimates made by ambient-based measurements. Significant discrepancies were found, with the inventory-based emissions methodology resulting in a systematic 42% under-estimation of CFC-12 emissions from older refrigeration equipment and older vehicles, and a systematic 114% overestimation of emissions for HFC-134a, a refrigerant substitute for phased-out CFCs. Initial, inventory-based estimates for all F-gas emissions had assumed that equipment is no longer in service once it reaches its average lifetime of use. Revised emission estimates using improved models for equipment age at end-of-life, inventories, and leak rates specific to California resulted in F-gas emissions estimates in closer agreement to ambient-based measurements. The discrepancies between inventory-based estimates and ambient-based measurements were reduced from -42% to -6% for CFC-12, and from +114% to +9% for HFC-134a.

  3. Impact of transport model errors on the global and regional methane emissions estimated by inverse modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Locatelli

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available A modelling experiment has been conceived to assess the impact of transport model errors on methane emissions estimated in an atmospheric inversion system. Synthetic methane observations, obtained from 10 different model outputs from the international TransCom-CH4 model inter-comparison exercise, are combined with a prior scenario of methane emissions and sinks, and integrated into the three-component PYVAR-LMDZ-SACS (PYthon VARiational-Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique model with Zooming capability-Simplified Atmospheric Chemistry System inversion system to produce 10 different methane emission estimates at the global scale for the year 2005. The same methane sinks, emissions and initial conditions have been applied to produce the 10 synthetic observation datasets. The same inversion set-up (statistical errors, prior emissions, inverse procedure is then applied to derive flux estimates by inverse modelling. Consequently, only differences in the modelling of atmospheric transport may cause differences in the estimated fluxes. In our framework, we show that transport model errors lead to a discrepancy of 27 Tg yr−1 at the global scale, representing 5% of total methane emissions. At continental and annual scales, transport model errors are proportionally larger than at the global scale, with errors ranging from 36 Tg yr−1 in North America to 7 Tg yr−1 in Boreal Eurasia (from 23 to 48%, respectively. At the model grid-scale, the spread of inverse estimates can reach 150% of the prior flux. Therefore, transport model errors contribute significantly to overall uncertainties in emission estimates by inverse modelling, especially when small spatial scales are examined. Sensitivity tests have been carried out to estimate the impact of the measurement network and the advantage of higher horizontal resolution in transport models. The large differences found between methane flux estimates inferred in these different configurations highly

  4. Near-real-time global biomass burning emissions product from geostationary satellite constellation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xiaoyang; Kondragunta, Shobha; Ram, Jessica; Schmidt, Christopher; Huang, Ho-Chun

    2012-07-01

    Near-real-time estimates of biomass burning emissions are crucial for air quality monitoring and forecasting. We present here the first near-real-time global biomass burning emission product from geostationary satellites (GBBEP-Geo) produced from satellite-derived fire radiative power (FRP) for individual fire pixels. Specifically, the FRP is retrieved using WF_ABBA V65 (wildfire automated biomass burning algorithm) from a network of multiple geostationary satellites. The network consists of two Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) which are operated by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the Meteosat second-generation satellites (Meteosat-09) operated by the European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites, and the Multifunctional Transport Satellite (MTSAT) operated by the Japan Meteorological Agency. These satellites observe wildfires at an interval of 15-30 min. Because of the impacts from sensor saturation, cloud cover, and background surface, the FRP values are generally not continuously observed. The missing observations are simulated by combining the available instantaneous FRP observations within a day and a set of representative climatological diurnal patterns of FRP for various ecosystems. Finally, the simulated diurnal variation in FRP is applied to quantify biomass combustion and emissions in individual fire pixels with a latency of 1 day. By analyzing global patterns in hourly biomass burning emissions in 2010, we find that peak fire season varied greatly and that annual wildfires burned 1.33 × 1012 kg dry mass, released 1.27 × 1010 kg of PM2.5 (particulate mass for particles with diameter forest and savanna fires in Africa, South America, and North America. Evaluation of emission result reveals that the GBBEP-Geo estimates are comparable with other FRP-derived estimates in Africa, while the results are generally smaller than most of the other global products that were derived from burned

  5. The impact of reducing car weight on global emissions: the future fleet in Great Britain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serrenho, André Cabrera; Norman, Jonathan B.; Allwood, Julian M.

    2017-05-01

    Current European policies define targets for future direct emissions of new car sales that foster a fast transition to electric drivetrain technologies. However, these targets do not consider the emissions produced in electricity generation and material production, and therefore fail to incentivise car manufacturers to consider the benefits of vehicle weight reduction. In this paper, we examine the potential benefits of limiting the average weight and altering the material composition of new cars in terms of global greenhouse gas emissions produced during the use phase, electricity generation and material production. We anticipate the emissions savings for the future car fleet in Great Britain until 2050 for various alternative futures, using a dynamic material flow analysis of ferrous metals and aluminium, and considering an evolving demand for car use. The results suggest that fostering vehicle weight reduction could produce greater cumulative emissions savings by 2050 than those obtained by incentivising a fast transition to electric drivetrains, unless there is an extreme decarbonization of the electricity grid. Savings promoted by weight reduction are immediate and do not depend on the pace of decarbonization of the electricity grid. Weight reduction may produce the greatest savings when mild steel in the car body is replaced with high-strength steel. This article is part of the themed issue 'Material demand reduction'.

  6. Space-based observations of fire NOx emission coefficients: a global biome-scale comparison

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. K. Mebust

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Biomass burning represents both a significant and highly variable source of NOx to the atmosphere. This variability stems from both the episodic nature of fires, and from fire conditions such as the modified combustion efficiency of the fire, the nitrogen content of the fuel and possibly other factors that have not been identified or evaluated by comparison with observations. Satellite instruments offer an opportunity to observe emissions from wildfires, providing a large suite of measurements which allow us to study mean behavior and variability on the regional scale in a statistically rigorous manner. Here we use space-based measurements of fire radiative power from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer in combination with NO2 tropospheric column densities from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument to measure mean emission coefficients (ECs in g NO MJ−1 from fires for global biomes, and across a wide range of smaller-scale ecoregions, defined as spatially-distinct clusters of fires with similar fuel type. Mean ECs for all biomes fall between 0.250–0.362 g NO MJ−1, a range that is smaller than found in previous studies of biome-scale emission factors. The majority of ecoregion ECs fall within or near this range, implying that under most conditions, mean fire emissions per unit energy are similar between different regions regardless of fuel type or spatial variability. In contrast to these similarities, we find that about 24% of individual ecoregion ECs deviate significantly (p x emissions.

  7. Source attribution of methane emissions from global oil and gas production: results of bottom-up simulations over three decades

    Science.gov (United States)

    Höglund-Isaksson, Lena

    2016-04-01

    Existing bottom-up emission inventories of historical methane and ethane emissions from global oil and gas systems do not well explain year-on-year variations estimated by top-down models from atmospheric measurements. This paper develops a bottom-up methodology which allows for country- and year specific source attribution of methane and ethane emissions from global oil and natural gas production for the period 1980 to 2012. The analysis rests on country-specific simulations of associated gas flows which are converted into methane and ethane emissions. The associated gas flows are constructed from country-specific information on oil and gas production and associated gas generation and recovery, and coupled with generic assumptions to bridge regional information gaps on the fractions of unrecovered associated gas that is vented instead of flared. Summing up emissions from associated gas flows with global estimates of emissions from unintended leakage and natural gas transmission and distribution, the resulting global emissions of methane and ethane from oil and gas systems are reasonably consistent with corresponding estimates from top-down models. Also revealed is that the fall of the Soviet Union in 1990 had a significant impact on methane and ethane emissions from global oil and gas systems.

  8. Simulating the global atmospheric black carbon cycle: a revisit to the contribution of aircraft emissions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Hendricks

    2004-06-01

    Full Text Available The black carbon (BC burden of the upper troposphere and lowermost stratosphere (UTLS is investigated with the general circulation model (GCM ECHAM4. The special focus is the contribution of aircraft emissions to the UTLS BC loading. Previous studies on the role of aircraft emissions in the global BC cycle either neglect BC sources located at the Earth's surface or simplify the BC cycle by assuming pre-defined BC residence times. Here, the global BC cycle including emissions, transport, and removal is explicitly simulated. The BC emissions considered include surface sources as well as BC from aviation. This enables a consistent calculation of the relative contribution of aviation to the global atmospheric BC cycle. As a further extension to the previous studies, the aviation-induced perturbation of the UTLS BC particle number concentration is investigated. Several sensitivity studies were performed to evaluate the uncertainties associated with the model predictions. The simulated UTLS BC concentrations are compared to in-situ observations. The simulations suggest that the large-scale contribution of aviation to the UTLS BC mass budget typically amounts to only a few percent, even in the most frequented flight regions. The aviation impact far away from these regions is negligible. The simulated aircraft contributions to the UTLS BC particle number concentration are much larger compared to the corresponding mass perturbations. The simulations suggest that aviation can cause large-scale increases in the UTLS BC particle number concentration of more than 30% in regions highly frequented by aircraft. The relative effect shows a pronounced annual variation with the largest relative aviation impact occurring during winter.

  9. Simulating the global atmospheric black carbon cycle: a revisit to the contribution of aircraft emissions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Hendricks

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available The black carbon (BC burden of the upper troposphere and lowermost stratosphere (UTLS is investigated with the general circulation model (GCM ECHAM4. The special focus is the contribution of aircraft emissions to the UTLS BC loading. Previous studies on the role of aircraft emissions in the global BC cycle either neglect BC sources located at the Earth's surface or simplify the BC cycle by assuming pre-defined BC residence times. Here, the global BC cycle including emissions, transport, and removal is explicitly simulated. The BC emissions considered include surface sources as well as BC from aviation. This enables a consistent calculation of the relative contribution of aviation to the global atmospheric BC cycle. As a further extension to the previous studies, the aviation-induced perturbation of the UTLS BC particle number concentration is investigated. The uncertainties associated with the model predictions are evaluated by means of several sensitivity studies. Especially, the sensitivity of the results to different assumptions on the BC hygroscopic properties is analysed. The simulated UTLS BC concentrations are compared to in-situ observations. The simulations suggest that the large-scale contribution of aviation to the UTLS BC mass budget typically amounts to only a few percent, even in the most frequented flight regions. The aviation impact far away from these regions is negligible. The simulated aircraft contributions to the UTLS BC particle number concentration are much larger compared to the corresponding mass perturbations. The simulations suggest that aviation can cause large-scale increases in the UTLS BC particle number concentration of more than 30% in regions highly frequented by aircraft. The relative effect shows a pronounced annual variation with the largest relative aviation impact occurring during winter.

  10. Two global data sets of daily fire emission injection heights since 2003

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rémy, Samuel; Veira, Andreas; Paugam, Ronan; Sofiev, Mikhail; Kaiser, Johannes W.; Marenco, Franco; Burton, Sharon P.; Benedetti, Angela; Engelen, Richard J.; Ferrare, Richard; Hair, Jonathan W.

    2017-02-01

    The Global Fire Assimilation System (GFAS) assimilates fire radiative power (FRP) observations from satellite-based sensors to produce daily estimates of biomass burning emissions. It has been extended to include information about injection heights derived from fire observations and meteorological information from the operational weather forecasts of ECMWF. Injection heights are provided by two distinct methods: the Integrated Monitoring and Modelling System for wildland fires (IS4FIRES) parameterisation and the one-dimensional plume rise model (PRM). A global database of daily biomass burning emissions and injection heights at 0.1° resolution has been produced for 2003-2015 and is continuously extended in near-real time with the operational GFAS service of the Copernicus Atmospheric Monitoring Service (CAMS). In this study, the two injection height data sets were compared with the new MPHP2 (MISR Plume Height Project 2) satellite-based plume height retrievals. The IS4FIRES parameterisation showed a better overall agreement than the observations, while the PRM was better at capturing the variability of injection heights. The performance of both parameterisations is also dependent on the type of vegetation. Furthermore, the use of biomass burning emission heights from GFAS in atmospheric composition forecasts was assessed in two case studies: the South AMerican Biomass Burning Analysis (SAMBBA) campaign which took place in September 2012 in Brazil, and a series of large fire events in the western USA in August 2013. For these case studies, forecasts of biomass burning aerosol species by the Composition Integrated Forecasting System (C-IFS) of CAMS were found to better reproduce the observed vertical distribution when using PRM injection heights from GFAS compared to aerosols emissions being prescribed at the surface. The globally available GFAS injection heights introduced and evaluated in this study provide a comprehensive data set for future fire and atmospheric

  11. Greenhouse gas emissions from Swiss agriculture since 1990: implications for environmental policies to mitigate global warming

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Leifeld, Jens [AGROSCOPE, Swiss Federal Research Station for Agroecology and Agriculture, Air Pollution/Climate Group, Reckenholzstrasse 191, 8046 Zurich (Switzerland)]. E-mail: jens.leifeld@fal.admin.ch; Fuhrer, Juerg [AGROSCOPE, Swiss Federal Research Station for Agroecology and Agriculture, Air Pollution/Climate Group, Reckenholzstrasse 191, 8046 Zurich (Switzerland)

    2005-08-01

    Agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions contribute significantly to global warming, and environmental protection strategies have thus to integrate emission reduction measures from this source. In Switzerland, legislation together with monetary incentives has forced primarily integrated, and to a lesser extend organic farming, both covering nowadays more than 95% of the agriculturally useful area. Though reducing greenhouse gas emissions was not a primary intention of this reorganisation, the measures were successful in reducing the overall emissions of nitrous oxide and methane by 10% relative to 1990. A reduction of the animal herd, namely of dairy cattle, non-dairy cattle and swine, and decreasing inputs of mineral N are the main contributors to the achieved emission reduction. Crop productivity was not negatively affected and milk productivity even increased, referring to the ecological potential of agricultural reorganisation that has been tapped. Total meat production declined proportional to the animal herd. Stabilised animal numbers and fertiliser use during the last 4 years refer to an exhaustion of future reduction potentials without further legislative action because this stabilisation is most likely due to the adaptation to the production guidelines. A comparison of emission trends and carbon sequestration potentials in the broader context of the EU15 reveals that nitrous oxide (N{sub 2}O) and methane (CH{sub 4}) have been reduced more efficiently most probably due to the measures taken, but that sequestration potentials are smaller than in the EU15 mainly because of differences in the agricultural structure. The change from an intensified towards a more environmental sound integrated production has a significant reduction potential, but in any case, agriculture will remain a net GHG source in spite of emission mitigation and carbon sequestration.

  12. Global Research Trends Related to C02 Emissions and Their Enlightenment to China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Liu Hongguang; Liu Weidong; Fan Xiaomei; Tang Zhipeng

    2012-01-01

    Given the growing awareness of the likely catastrophic impacts of climate change and close association of climate change with global emissions of greenhouse gases (of which carbon dioxide is more prominent) , considerable research efforts have been devoted to the analysis of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and its relationship to sustainable development. Now GHG reduction programs have been coming into effect in many developed coun- tries that have more responsibility for historical CO2 emissions, and the studies have become mature. First, the GHG emissions accounting system is more all-inclusive and the methods are more rational with the effort of IPCC from 1995 and all other research- ers related. Second, the responsibility allocation is more rational and fair. Along with the clarity of "carbon transfer" and "carbon leakage", the perspective and methodology for allocating regional COz emissions responsibility is turning from production base to consumption base. Third, the decomposition method has become more mature and more complex. For example, the decomposition formulas are including KAYA expression and input-output expres- sion and the decomposition techniques are developed from index analysis to simple average divisia and then adaptive-weighting divisia. Fourth, projection models have become more integrated and long-term. The top-down model and bottom-up model are both inter-embedded and synergetic. Trends above give some advice for the research on CO2 in China, such as emissions factors database construction, deeper-going research on emissions responsibility and structure analysis, promotion of modeling technology and technology-environment database.

  13. Role of Pakistan in Global Climate Change through Greenhouse Gas Emissions (GHGs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wajeeha Malik

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available The increasing concentration of Greenhouse Gases (GHGs is warming the earth’s atmosphere and the phenomenon is known as Climate Change or Global Warming. The major factors contributing to the global climate change include polluted emissions by excessive burning of fossil fuels and deforestation. Pakistan contributes very little to the overall Greenhouse Gas (GHG emissions however it remains severely impacted by the negative effects of climate change. Pakistan, in particular is estimated to have raised carbon emissions from 76 million tons in 1990 to 200 million tons in 2006. It is estimated that CO2 emissions with an average increase of 6.5% annually will grow to 482 million tons by 2020. The transport sector is a significant contributor to GHG emissions with an estimated 15million tons in 1990. With a proportionate increase in GHG emissions with the 100% increase in motor vehicles, the sector will be responsible for the emission of 30 million ton CO2 by 2020. According to data reviewed, the total petroleum consumption of Pakistan was 383 thousand barrels per day in 2008. Natural gas consumption was 1,088 billion cubic feet in 2007. Coal consumption reached 8.583 million short tons in 2007. In 2006, the total Carbon dioxide emissions from consumption of fossil fuels reached 125.59 million metric tons (EIA. Glacier melt in the Himalayas is projected to increase flooding and will affect water resources within the next two to three decades. Freshwater availability is also projected to decrease which will lead to biodiversity loss. Beside that, coastal areas bordering the Arabian Sea in the south of Pakistan will be at greatest risk due to inland intrusion and increased flooding from the sea. Being a predominantly agriculture economy, climate change is estimated to decrease crop yields in Pakistan. The endemic morbidity and mortality due to diseases primarily associated with floods and droughts are expected to rise. The impact of climate change

  14. Global terrestrial isoprene emission models: sensitivity to variability in climate and vegetation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Arneth

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Due to its effects on the atmospheric lifetime of methane, the burdens of tropospheric ozone and growth of secondary organic aerosol, isoprene is central among the biogenic compounds that need to be taken into account for assessment of anthropogenic air pollution. There is a great interest in better understanding the geographic distribution of isoprene emission, and the interaction of the drivers that underlie its seasonal, interannual and long-term variation. Lack of process-understanding on the scale of the leaf as well as of suitable observations to constrain and evaluate regional or even global simulation results add large uncertainties to past, present and future estimates of quantity and variability of isoprene emissions. Model intercomparison experiments, which for isoprene have not been performed before, can help to identify areas of largest uncertainty as well as important commonalities. Focusing on present-day climate conditions, we compare three global isoprene models that differ in their representation of vegetation and isoprene emission algorithm, with the aim to investigate the degree of between- vs. within model variation that is introduced by varying some of the models' main features, and to determine which spatial and/or temporal features are robust between models and different experimental set-ups. In their individual standard configurations, the models broadly agree with respect to the chief isoprene sources, emission seasonality, and interannual variability. However, the models are all quite sensitive to changes in one or more of their main model components and drivers (e.g., underlying vegetation fields, climate input which can yield a strong increase or decrease in total annual emissions and seasonal patterns to a degree that cannot be reconciled with today's understanding of isoprene atmospheric chemistry. A careful adaptation of individual isoprene model components is therefore required when simulations are to be

  15. The global impact of the transport sectors on atmospheric aerosol: simulations for year 2000 emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Righi, M.; Hendricks, J.; Sausen, R.

    2013-10-01

    We use the EMAC (ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry) global model with the aerosol module MADE (Modal Aerosol Dynamics model for Europe, adapted for global applications) to quantify the impact of transport emissions (land transport, shipping and aviation) on the global aerosol. We consider a present-day (2000) scenario according to the CMIP5 (Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) emission data set developed in support of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) Fifth Assessment Report. The model takes into account particle mass and number emissions: The latter are derived from mass emissions under different assumptions on the size distribution of particles emitted by the three transport sectors. Additional sensitivity experiments are performed to quantify the effects of the uncertainties behind such assumptions. The model simulations show that the impact of the transport sectors closely matches the emission patterns. Land transport is the most important source of black carbon (BC) pollution in the USA, Europe and the Arabian Peninsula, contributing up to 60-70% of the total surface-level BC concentration in these regions. Shipping contributes about 40-60% of the total aerosol sulfate surface-level concentration along the most-traveled routes of the northern Atlantic and northern Pacific oceans, with a significant impact (~ 10-20%) along the coastlines. Aviation mostly affects aerosol number, contributing about 30-40% of the particle number concentration in the northern midlatitudes' upper troposphere (7-12 km), although significant effects are also simulated at the ground, due to the emissions from landing and take-off cycles. The transport-induced perturbations to the particle number concentrations are very sensitive to the assumptions on the size distribution of emitted particles, with the largest uncertainties (about one order of magnitude) obtained for the land transport sector. The simulated climate impacts, due to aerosol direct and

  16. Impacts of global, regional, and sectoral black carbon emission reductions on surface air quality and human mortality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anenberg, S. C.; Talgo, K.; Arunachalam, S.; Dolwick, P.; Jang, C.; West, J. J.

    2011-07-01

    As a component of fine particulate matter (PM2.5), black carbon (BC) is associated with premature human mortality. BC also affects climate by absorbing solar radiation and reducing planetary albedo. Several studies have examined the climate impacts of BC emissions, but the associated health impacts have been studied less extensively. Here, we examine the surface PM2.5 and premature mortality impacts of halving anthropogenic BC emissions globally and individually from eight world regions and three major economic sectors. We use a global chemical transport model, MOZART-4, to simulate PM2.5 concentrations and a health impact function to calculate premature cardiopulmonary and lung cancer deaths. We estimate that halving global anthropogenic BC emissions reduces outdoor population-weighted average PM2.5 by 542 ng m-3 (1.8 %) and avoids 157 000 (95 % confidence interval, 120 000-194 000) annual premature deaths globally, with the vast majority occurring within the source region. Most of these avoided deaths can be achieved by halving emissions in East Asia (China; 54 %), followed by South Asia (India; 31 %), however South Asian emissions have 50 % greater mortality impacts per unit BC emitted than East Asian emissions. Globally, halving residential, industrial, and transportation emissions contributes 47 %, 35 %, and 15 % to the avoided deaths from halving all anthropogenic BC emissions. These contributions are 1.2, 1.2, and 0.6 times each sector's portion of global BC emissions, owing to the degree of co-location with population globally. We find that reducing BC emissions increases regional SO4 concentrations by up to 28 % of the magnitude of the regional BC concentration reductions, due to reduced absorption of radiation that drives photochemistry. Impacts of residential BC emissions are likely underestimated since indoor PM2.5 exposure is excluded. We estimate ∼8 times more avoided deaths when BC and organic carbon (OC) emissions are halved together, suggesting

  17. Impacts of global, regional, and sectoral black carbon emission reductions on surface air quality and human mortality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. C. Anenberg

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available As a component of fine particulate matter (PM2.5, black carbon (BC is associated with premature human mortality. BC also affects climate by absorbing solar radiation and reducing planetary albedo. Several studies have examined the climate impacts of BC emissions, but the associated health impacts have been studied less extensively. Here, we examine the surface PM2.5 and premature mortality impacts of halving anthropogenic BC emissions globally and individually from eight world regions and three major economic sectors. We use a global chemical transport model, MOZART-4, to simulate PM2.5 concentrations and a health impact function to calculate premature cardiopulmonary and lung cancer deaths. We estimate that halving global anthropogenic BC emissions reduces outdoor population-weighted average PM2.5 by 542 ng m−3 (1.8 % and avoids 157 000 (95 % confidence interval, 120 000–194 000 annual premature deaths globally, with the vast majority occurring within the source region. Most of these avoided deaths can be achieved by halving emissions in East Asia (China; 54 %, followed by South Asia (India; 31 %, however South Asian emissions have 50 % greater mortality impacts per unit BC emitted than East Asian emissions. Globally, halving residential, industrial, and transportation emissions contributes 47 %, 35 %, and 15 % to the avoided deaths from halving all anthropogenic BC emissions. These contributions are 1.2, 1.2, and 0.6 times each sector's portion of global BC emissions, owing to the degree of co-location with population globally. We find that reducing BC emissions increases regional SO4 concentrations by up to 28 % of the magnitude of the regional BC concentration reductions, due to reduced absorption of radiation that drives photochemistry. Impacts of residential BC emissions are likely underestimated since indoor PM2.5 exposure is excluded. We estimate ∼8 times

  18. Surface Emissivity Retrieved with Satellite Ultraspectral IR Measurements for Monitoring Global Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Daniel K.; Larar, Allen M.; Liu, Xu; Smith, William L.; Schluessel, Peter

    2009-01-01

    Surface and atmospheric thermodynamic parameters retrieved with advanced ultraspectral remote sensors aboard Earth observing satellites are critical to general atmospheric and Earth science research, climate monitoring, and weather prediction. Ultraspectral resolution infrared radiance obtained from nadir observations provide atmospheric, surface, and cloud information. Presented here is the global surface IR emissivity retrieved from Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) measurements under "clear-sky" conditions. Fast radiative transfer models, applied to the cloud-free (or clouded) atmosphere, are used for atmospheric profile and surface parameter (or cloud parameter) retrieval. The inversion scheme, dealing with cloudy as well as cloud-free radiances observed with ultraspectral infrared sounders, has been developed to simultaneously retrieve atmospheric thermodynamic and surface (or cloud microphysical) parameters. Rapidly produced surface emissivity is initially evaluated through quality control checks on the retrievals of other impacted atmospheric and surface parameters. Surface emissivity and surface skin temperature from the current and future operational satellites can and will reveal critical information on the Earth s ecosystem and land surface type properties, which can be utilized as part of long-term monitoring for the Earth s environment and global climate change.

  19. A decade of global volcanic SO2 emissions measured from space

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carn, S. A.; Fioletov, V. E.; McLinden, C. A.; Li, C.; Krotkov, N. A.

    2017-03-01

    The global flux of sulfur dioxide (SO2) emitted by passive volcanic degassing is a key parameter that constrains the fluxes of other volcanic gases (including carbon dioxide, CO2) and toxic trace metals (e.g., mercury). It is also a required input for atmospheric chemistry and climate models, since it impacts the tropospheric burden of sulfate aerosol, a major climate-forcing species. Despite its significance, an inventory of passive volcanic degassing is very difficult to produce, due largely to the patchy spatial and temporal coverage of ground-based SO2 measurements. We report here the first volcanic SO2 emissions inventory derived from global, coincident satellite measurements, made by the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) on NASA’s Aura satellite in 2005-2015. The OMI measurements permit estimation of SO2 emissions from over 90 volcanoes, including new constraints on fluxes from Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, the Aleutian Islands, the Kuril Islands and Kamchatka. On average over the past decade, the volcanic SO2 sources consistently detected from space have discharged a total of ~63 kt/day SO2 during passive degassing, or ~23 ± 2 Tg/yr. We find that ~30% of the sources show significant decadal trends in SO2 emissions, with positive trends observed at multiple volcanoes in some regions including Vanuatu, southern Japan, Peru and Chile.

  20. Optimizing global CO concentrations and emissions based on DART/CAM-CHEM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaubert, B.; Arellano, A. F.; Barre, J.; Worden, H. M.; Emmons, L. K.; Wiedinmyer, C.; Anderson, J. L.; Deeter, M. N.; Mizzi, A. P.; Edwards, D. P.

    2014-12-01

    Atmospheric Carbon Monoxide (CO) is an important trace gas in tropospheric chemistry through its impact on the oxidizing capacity of the troposphere, as precursor of ozone, and as a good tracer of combustion from both anthropogenic sources and wildfires. We will investigate the potential of the assimilation of TERRA/MOPITT observations to constrain the regional to global CO budget using DART (Data assimilation Research Testbed) together with the global Community Atmospheric Model (CAM-Chem). DART/CAM-Chem is based on an ensemble adjustment Kalman filter (EAKF) framework which facilitates statistical estimation of error correlations between chemical states (CO and related species) and parameters (including sources) in the model using the ensemble statistics derived from dynamical and chemical perturbations in the model. Here, we estimate CO emissions within DART/CAM-Chem using a state augmentation approach where CO emissions are added to the CO state vector being analyzed. We compare these optimized emissions to estimates derived from a traditional Bayesian synthesis inversion using the CO analyses (assimilated CO states) as observational constraints. The spatio-temporal distribution of CO and other chemical species will be compared to profile measurements from aircraft and other satellite instruments (e.g., INTEX-B, ARCTAS).

  1. Co-benefits of mitigating global greenhouse gas emissions for future air quality and human health

    Science.gov (United States)

    West, J. Jason; Smith, Steven J.; Silva, Raquel A.; Naik, Vaishali; Zhang, Yuqiang; Adelman, Zachariah; Fry, Meridith M.; Anenberg, Susan; Horowitz, Larry W.; Lamarque, Jean-Francois

    2013-10-01

    Actions to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions often reduce co-emitted air pollutants, bringing co-benefits for air quality and human health. Past studies typically evaluated near-term and local co-benefits, neglecting the long-range transport of air pollutants, long-term demographic changes, and the influence of climate change on air quality. Here we simulate the co-benefits of global GHG reductions on air quality and human health using a global atmospheric model and consistent future scenarios, via two mechanisms: reducing co-emitted air pollutants, and slowing climate change and its effect on air quality. We use new relationships between chronic mortality and exposure to fine particulate matter and ozone, global modelling methods and new future scenarios. Relative to a reference scenario, global GHG mitigation avoids 0.5+/-0.2, 1.3+/-0.5 and 2.2+/-0.8 million premature deaths in 2030, 2050 and 2100. Global average marginal co-benefits of avoided mortality are US$50-380 per tonne of CO2, which exceed previous estimates, exceed marginal abatement costs in 2030 and 2050, and are within the low range of costs in 2100. East Asian co-benefits are 10-70 times the marginal cost in 2030. Air quality and health co-benefits, especially as they are mainly local and near-term, provide strong additional motivation for transitioning to a low-carbon future.

  2. The contribution of China’s emissions to global climate forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Bengang; Gasser, Thomas; Ciais, Philippe; Piao, Shilong; Tao, Shu; Balkanski, Yves; Hauglustaine, Didier; Boisier, Juan-Pablo; Chen, Zhuo; Huang, Mengtian; Li, Laurent Zhaoxin; Li, Yue; Liu, Hongyan; Liu, Junfeng; Peng, Shushi; Shen, Zehao; Sun, Zhenzhong; Wang, Rong; Wang, Tao; Yin, Guodong; Yin, Yi; Zeng, Hui; Zeng, Zhenzhong; Zhou, Feng

    2016-03-01

    Knowledge of the contribution that individual countries have made to global radiative forcing is important to the implementation of the agreement on “common but differentiated responsibilities” reached by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Over the past three decades, China has experienced rapid economic development, accompanied by increased emission of greenhouse gases, ozone precursors and aerosols, but the magnitude of the associated radiative forcing has remained unclear. Here we use a global coupled biogeochemistry-climate model and a chemistry and transport model to quantify China’s present-day contribution to global radiative forcing due to well-mixed greenhouse gases, short-lived atmospheric climate forcers and land-use-induced regional surface albedo changes. We find that China contributes 10% ± 4% of the current global radiative forcing. China’s relative contribution to the positive (warming) component of global radiative forcing, mainly induced by well-mixed greenhouse gases and black carbon aerosols, is 12% ± 2%. Its relative contribution to the negative (cooling) component is 15% ± 6%, dominated by the effect of sulfate and nitrate aerosols. China’s strongest contributions are 0.16 ± 0.02 watts per square metre for CO2 from fossil fuel burning, 0.13 ± 0.05 watts per square metre for CH4, -0.11 ± 0.05 watts per square metre for sulfate aerosols, and 0.09 ± 0.06 watts per square metre for black carbon aerosols. China’s eventual goal of improving air quality will result in changes in radiative forcing in the coming years: a reduction of sulfur dioxide emissions would drive a faster future warming, unless offset by larger reductions of radiative forcing from well-mixed greenhouse gases and black carbon.

  3. Why are estimates of global terrestrial isoprene emissions so similar (and why is this not so for monoterpenes)?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arneth, A.; Monson, R. K.; Schurgers, G.; Niinemets, É.; Palmer, P. I.

    2008-08-01

    Emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOC) are a chief uncertainty in calculating the burdens of important atmospheric compounds like tropospheric ozone or secondary organic aerosol, reflecting either imperfect chemical oxidation mechanisms or unreliable emission estimates, or both. To provide a starting point for a more systematic discussion we review here global isoprene and monoterpene emission estimates to-date. We note a surprisingly small variation in the predictions of global isoprene emission rate that is in stark contrast with our lack of process understanding and the small number of observations for model parameterisation and evaluation. Most of the models are based on similar emission algorithms, using fixed values for the emission capacity of various plant functional types. In some cases, these values are very similar but differ substantially in other models. The similarities with regard to the global isoprene emission rate would suggest that the dominant parameters driving the ultimate global estimate, and thus the dominant determinant of model sensitivity, are the specific emission algorithm and isoprene emission capacity. But the models also differ broadly with regard to their representation of net primary productivity, method of biome coverage determination and climate data. Contrary to isoprene, monoterpene estimates show significantly larger model-to-model variation although variation in terms of leaf algorithm, emission capacities, the way of model upscaling, vegetation cover or climatology used in terpene models are comparable to those used for isoprene. From our summary of published studies there appears to be no evidence that the terrestrial modelling community has been any more successful in "resolving unknowns" in the mechanisms that control global isoprene emissions, compared to global monoterpene emissions. Rather, the proliferation of common parameterization schemes within a large variety of model platforms lends the illusion

  4. Why are estimates of global isoprene emissions so similar (and why is this not so for monoterpenes)?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arneth, A.; Monson, R. K.; Schurgers, G.; Niinemets, Ü.; Palmer, P. I.

    2008-04-01

    Emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOC) are a chief uncertainty in calculating the burdens of important atmospheric compounds like tropospheric ozone or secondary organic aerosol, reflecting either imperfect chemical oxidation mechanisms or unreliable emission estimates, or both. To provide a starting point for a more systematic discussion we review here global isoprene and monoterpene emission estimates to-date. We note a surprisingly small variation in the predictions of global isoprene emission rate that is in stark contrast with our lack of process understanding and the small number of observations for model parameterisation and evaluation. Most of the models are based on similar emission algorithms, using fixed values for the emission capacity of various plant functional types. In some studies these values are very similar, but they differ substantially in others. The models differ also broadly with regard to their representation of net primary productivity, method of biome coverage determination and climate data. Their similarities with regard to the global isoprene emission rate would suggest that the dominant parameters driving the ultimate global estimate, and thus the dominant determinant of model sensitivity, are the specific emission algorithm and isoprene emission capacity. Contrary to isoprene, monoterpene estimates show significantly larger model-to-model variation although variation in terms of leaf algorithm, emission capacities, the way of model upscaling, vegetation cover or climatology used in terpene models are comparable to those used for isoprene. From our summary of published studies there appears to be no evidence that the terrestrial modelling community has been any more successful in "resolving unknowns" in the mechanisms that control global isoprene emissions, compared to global monoterpene emissions. Rather, the proliferation of common parameterization schemes within a large variety of model platforms lends the illusion

  5. Why are estimates of global isoprene emissions so similar (and why is this not so for monoterpenes?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Arneth

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available Emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOC are a chief uncertainty in calculating the burdens of important atmospheric compounds like tropospheric ozone or secondary organic aerosol, reflecting either imperfect chemical oxidation mechanisms or unreliable emission estimates, or both. To provide a starting point for a more systematic discussion we review here global isoprene and monoterpene emission estimates to-date. We note a surprisingly small variation in the predictions of global isoprene emission rate that is in stark contrast with our lack of process understanding and the small number of observations for model parameterisation and evaluation. Most of the models are based on similar emission algorithms, using fixed values for the emission capacity of various plant functional types. In some studies these values are very similar, but they differ substantially in others. The models differ also broadly with regard to their representation of net primary productivity, method of biome coverage determination and climate data. Their similarities with regard to the global isoprene emission rate would suggest that the dominant parameters driving the ultimate global estimate, and thus the dominant determinant of model sensitivity, are the specific emission algorithm and isoprene emission capacity. Contrary to isoprene, monoterpene estimates show significantly larger model-to-model variation although variation in terms of leaf algorithm, emission capacities, the way of model upscaling, vegetation cover or climatology used in terpene models are comparable to those used for isoprene. From our summary of published studies there appears to be no evidence that the terrestrial modelling community has been any more successful in "resolving unknowns" in the mechanisms that control global isoprene emissions, compared to global monoterpene emissions. Rather, the proliferation of common parameterization schemes within a large variety of model platforms

  6. Why are estimates of global terrestrial isoprene emissions so similar (and why is this not so for monoterpenes?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Arneth

    2008-08-01

    Full Text Available Emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOC are a chief uncertainty in calculating the burdens of important atmospheric compounds like tropospheric ozone or secondary organic aerosol, reflecting either imperfect chemical oxidation mechanisms or unreliable emission estimates, or both. To provide a starting point for a more systematic discussion we review here global isoprene and monoterpene emission estimates to-date. We note a surprisingly small variation in the predictions of global isoprene emission rate that is in stark contrast with our lack of process understanding and the small number of observations for model parameterisation and evaluation. Most of the models are based on similar emission algorithms, using fixed values for the emission capacity of various plant functional types. In some cases, these values are very similar but differ substantially in other models. The similarities with regard to the global isoprene emission rate would suggest that the dominant parameters driving the ultimate global estimate, and thus the dominant determinant of model sensitivity, are the specific emission algorithm and isoprene emission capacity. But the models also differ broadly with regard to their representation of net primary productivity, method of biome coverage determination and climate data. Contrary to isoprene, monoterpene estimates show significantly larger model-to-model variation although variation in terms of leaf algorithm, emission capacities, the way of model upscaling, vegetation cover or climatology used in terpene models are comparable to those used for isoprene. From our summary of published studies there appears to be no evidence that the terrestrial modelling community has been any more successful in "resolving unknowns" in the mechanisms that control global isoprene emissions, compared to global monoterpene emissions. Rather, the proliferation of common parameterization schemes within a large variety of model platforms

  7. Global reverse supply chain design for solid waste recycling under uncertainties and carbon emission constraint.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Zhitao; Elomri, Adel; Pokharel, Shaligram; Zhang, Qin; Ming, X G; Liu, Wenjie

    2017-06-01

    The emergence of concerns over environmental protection, resource conservation as well as the development of logistics operations and manufacturing technology has led several countries to implement formal collection and recycling systems of solid waste. Such recycling system has the benefits of reducing environmental pollution, boosting the economy by creating new jobs, and generating income from trading the recyclable materials. This leads to the formation of a global reverse supply chain (GRSC) of solid waste. In this paper, we investigate the design of such a GRSC with a special emphasis on three aspects; (1) uncertainty of waste collection levels, (2) associated carbon emissions, and (3) challenges posed by the supply chain's global aspect, particularly the maritime transportation costs and currency exchange rates. To the best of our knowledge, this paper is the first attempt to integrate the three above-mentioned important aspects in the design of a GRSC. We have used mixed integer-linear programming method along with robust optimization to develop the model which is validated using a sample case study of e-waste management. Our results show that using a robust model by taking the complex interactions characterizing global reverse supply chain networks into account, we can create a better GRSC. The effect of uncertainties and carbon constraints on decisions to reduce costs and emissions are also shown. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Defining the `negative emission' capacity of global agriculture deployed for enhanced rock weathering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beerling, D. J.; Taylor, L.; Banwart, S. A.; Kantzas, E. P.; Lomas, M.; Mueller, C.; Ridgwell, A.; Quegan, S.

    2016-12-01

    Enhanced rock weathering involves application of crushed silicates (e.g. basalt) to the landscape to accelerate their chemical breakdown to release base cations and form bicarbonate that ultimate sequester CO2 in the oceans. Global croplands cover an area of 12 million km2 and might be deployed for long-term removal of anthropogenic CO2 through enhanced rock weathering with a number of co-benefits for food security. This presentation assesses the potential of this strategy to contribute to `negative emissions' as defined by a suite of simulations coupling a detailed model of rock grain weathering by crop root-microbial processes with a managed land dynamic global vegetation model driven by the `business as usual' future climate change scenarios. We calculate potential atmospheric CO2 drawdown over the next century by introducing a strengthened C-sink term into the global carbon cycle model within an intermediate complexity Earth system model. Our simulations indicate agricultural lands deployed in this way constitute a `low tech' biological negative emissions strategy. As part of a wider portfolio of options, this strategy might contribute to limiting future warming to 2oC, subject to economic costs and energy requirements.

  9. Changes in US background ozone due to global anthropogenic emissions from 1970 to 2020

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nopmongcol, Uarporn; Jung, Jaegun; Kumar, Naresh; Yarwood, Greg

    2016-09-01

    Estimates of North American and US Background (NAB and USB) ozone (O3) are critical in setting and implementing the US National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) and therefore influence population exposure to O3 across the US. NAB is defined as the O3 concentration in the absence of anthropogenic O3 precursor emissions from North America whereas USB excludes anthropogenic emissions inside the US alone. NAB and USB vary geographically and with time of year. Analyses of O3 trends at rural locations near the west coast suggest that background O3 is rising in response to increasing non-US emissions. As the O3 NAAQS is lowered, rising background O3 would make attaining the NAAQS more difficult. Most studies of changing US background O3 have inferred trends from observations whereas air quality management decisions tend to rely on models. Thus, it is important that the models used to develop O3 management strategies are able to represent the changes in background O3 in order to increase confidence that air quality management strategies will succeed. We focus on how changing global emissions influence USB rather than the effects of inter-annual meteorological variation or long-term climate change. We use a regional model (CAMx) nested within a global model (GEOS-Chem) to refine our grid resolution over high terrain in the western US and near US borders where USB tends to be higher. We determine USB from CAMx simulations that exclude US anthropogenic emissions. Over five decades, from 1970 to 2020, estimated USB for the annual fourth highest maximum daily 8-h average O3 (H4MDA8) in the western US increased from mostly in the range of 40-55 ppb to 45-60 ppb, but remained below 45 ppb in the eastern US. USB increases in the southwestern US are consistent with rising emissions in Asia and Mexico. USB decreases in the northeast US after 1990 follow declining Canadian emissions. Our results show that the USB increases both for the top 30 MDA8 days and the H4MDA8 (the former

  10. Insolation data manual: long-term monthly averages of solar radiation, temperature, degree-days and global anti K/sub T/ for 248 national weather service stations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Knapp, C L; Stoffel, T L; Whitaker, S D

    1980-10-01

    Monthly averaged data is presented which describes the availability of solar radiation at 248 National Weather Service stations. Monthly and annual average daily insolation and temperature values have been computed from a base of 24 to 25 years of data. Average daily maximum, minimum, and monthly temperatures are provided for most locations in both Celsius and Fahrenheit. Heating and cooling degree-days were computed relative to a base of 18.3/sup 0/C (65/sup 0/F). For each station, global anti K/sub T/ (cloudiness index) were calculated on a monthly and annual basis. (MHR)

  11. The Fire INventory from NCAR (FINN): a high resolution global model to estimate the emissions from open burning

    Science.gov (United States)

    C. Wiedinmyer; S. K. Akagi; R. J. Yokelson; L. K. Emmons; J. A. Al-Saadi; J. J. Orlando; A. J. Soja

    2010-01-01

    The Fire INventory from NCAR version 1.0 (FINNv1) provides daily, 1 km resolution, global estimates of the trace gas and particle emissions from open burning of biomass, which includes wildfire, agricultural fires, and prescribed burning and does not include 5 biofuel use and trash burning. Emission factors used in the calculations have been updated with recent data,...

  12. Methane emissions from a freshwater marsh in response to experimentally simulated global warming and nitrogen enrichment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Flury, Sabine; McGinnis, Daniel Frank; Gessner, Mark O.

    2010-01-01

    We determined methane (CH4) emissions in a field enclosure experiment in a littoral freshwater marsh under the influence of experimentally simulated warming and enhanced nitrogen deposition. Methane emissions by ebullition from the marsh composed of Phragmites australis were measured with funnel ...... to the atmosphere, even when they occupy only relatively small littoral areas. More detailed investigations are clearly needed to assess whether global warming and nitrogen deposition can have climate feedbacks by altering methane fluxes from these wetlands.  ......We determined methane (CH4) emissions in a field enclosure experiment in a littoral freshwater marsh under the influence of experimentally simulated warming and enhanced nitrogen deposition. Methane emissions by ebullition from the marsh composed of Phragmites australis were measured with funnel...... traps deployed in a series of enclosures for two 3 week periods. Diffusive fluxes were estimated on the basis of measured CH4 concentrations and application of Fick's law. Neither diffusive nor ebullitive fluxes of methane were significantly affected by warming or nitrate enrichment, possibly because...

  13. Methane emissions from a freshwater marsh in response to experimentally simulated global warming and nitrogen enrichment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Flury, Sabine; McGinnis, Daniel Frank; Gessner, Mark O.

    2010-01-01

    We determined methane (CH4) emissions in a field enclosure experiment in a littoral freshwater marsh under the influence of experimentally simulated warming and enhanced nitrogen deposition. Methane emissions by ebullition from the marsh composed of Phragmites australis were measured with funnel ...... to the atmosphere, even when they occupy only relatively small littoral areas. More detailed investigations are clearly needed to assess whether global warming and nitrogen deposition can have climate feedbacks by altering methane fluxes from these wetlands.  ......We determined methane (CH4) emissions in a field enclosure experiment in a littoral freshwater marsh under the influence of experimentally simulated warming and enhanced nitrogen deposition. Methane emissions by ebullition from the marsh composed of Phragmites australis were measured with funnel...... traps deployed in a series of enclosures for two 3 week periods. Diffusive fluxes were estimated on the basis of measured CH4 concentrations and application of Fick's law. Neither diffusive nor ebullitive fluxes of methane were significantly affected by warming or nitrate enrichment, possibly because...

  14. Influence Of Aircraft Engine Exhaust Emissions At A Global Level And Preventive Measures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jasna Golubić

    2004-07-01

    Full Text Available The work considers the differences in the aircraft engine exhaustemissions, as well as the impact of the emissions on theenvironment depending on several factors. These include theage of the engine, i. e. technical refinement, engine operating regimesat different thrusts during time periods: takeoff, climb,approach, etc. Also, the exhaust emissions do not have thesame influence on different atmospheric layers. The pollutantsemitted at higher altitudes during cruising have become agreater problem, although the volume of pollutants is smaller,due to the chemical complexity and sensitivity of these layers ascompared to the lower layers of atmosphere. One of the reasonswhy these problems have long remained outside the focus of interestof the environmentalists is that the air transport of goodsand people is performed at high altitudes, so that the pollutionof atmosphere does not present a direct threat to anyone, sincethe environment is being polluted at a global level and thereforeis more difficult to notice at the local level.

  15. Trend analysis from 1970 to 2008 and model evaluation of EDGARv4 global gridded anthropogenic mercury emissions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Muntean, Marilena, E-mail: marilena.muntean@jrc.ec.europa.eu [European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Ispra (Italy); Janssens-Maenhout, Greet [European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Ispra (Italy); Song, Shaojie; Selin, Noelle E. [Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA (United States); Olivier, Jos G.J. [PBL Netherlands Environment Assessment Agency, Bilthoven (Netherlands); Guizzardi, Diego [European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Ispra (Italy); Maas, Rob [RIVM National Institute for Public Health and Environment, Bilthoven (Netherlands); Dentener, Frank [European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Ispra (Italy)

    2014-10-01

    The Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) provides a time-series of man-made emissions of greenhouse gases and short-lived atmospheric pollutants from 1970 to 2008. Mercury is included in EDGARv4.tox1, thereby enriching the spectrum of multi-pollutant sources in the database. With an average annual growth rate of 1.3% since 1970, EDGARv4 estimates that the global mercury emissions reached 1287 tonnes in 2008. Specifically, gaseous elemental mercury (GEM) (Hg{sup 0}) accounted for 72% of the global total emissions, while gaseous oxidised mercury (GOM) (Hg{sup 2+}) and particle bound mercury (PBM) (Hg-P) accounted for only 22% and 6%, respectively. The less reactive form, i.e., Hg{sup 0}, has a long atmospheric residence time and can be transported long distances from the emission sources. The artisanal and small-scale gold production, accounted for approximately half of the global Hg{sup 0} emissions in 2008 followed by combustion (29%), cement production (12%) and other metal industry (10%). Given the local-scale impacts of mercury, special attention was given to the spatial distribution showing the emission hot-spots on gridded 0.1° × 0.1° resolution maps using detailed proxy data. The comprehensive ex-post analysis of the mitigation of mercury emissions by end-of-pipe abatement measures in the power generation sector and technology changes in the chlor-alkali industry over four decades indicates reductions of 46% and 93%, respectively. Combined, the improved technologies and mitigation measures in these sectors accounted for 401.7 tonnes of avoided mercury emissions in 2008. A comparison shows that EDGARv4 anthropogenic emissions are nearly equivalent to the lower estimates of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)'s mercury emissions inventory for 2005 for most sectors. An evaluation of the EDGARv4 global mercury emission inventory, including mercury speciation, was performed using the GEOS-Chem global 3-D mercury model. The

  16. LEDS Global Partnership in Action: Advancing Climate-Resilient Low Emission Development Around the World (Fact Sheet)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2013-11-01

    Many countries around the globe are designing and implementing low emission development strategies (LEDS). These LEDS seek to achieve social, economic, and environmental development goals while reducing long-term greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and increasing resiliency to climate change impacts. The LEDS Global Partnership (LEDS GP) harnesses the collective knowledge and resources of more than 120 countries and international donor and technical organizations to strengthen climate-resilient low emission development efforts around the world.

  17. Interannual variability in global biomass burning emissions from 1997 to 2004

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. R. van der Werf

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Biomass burning represents an important source of atmospheric aerosols and greenhouse gases, yet little is known about its interannual variability or the underlying mechanisms regulating this variability at continental to global scales. Here we investigated fire emissions during the 8 year period from 1997 to 2004 using satellite data and the CASA biogeochemical model. Burned area from 2001–2004 was derived using newly available active fire and 500 m. burned area datasets from MODIS following the approach described by Giglio et al. (2006. ATSR and VIRS satellite data were used to extend the burned area time series back in time through 1997. In our analysis we estimated fuel loads, including organic soil layer and peatland fuels, and the net flux from terrestrial ecosystems as the balance between net primary production (NPP, heterotrophic respiration (Rh, and biomass burning, using time varying inputs of precipitation (PPT, temperature, solar radiation, and satellite-derived fractional absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (fAPAR. For the 1997–2004 period, we found that on average approximately 58 Pg C year−1 was fixed by plants as NPP, and approximately 95% of this was returned back to the atmosphere via Rh. Another 4%, or 2.5 Pg C year−1 was emitted by biomass burning; the remainder consisted of losses from fuel wood collection and subsequent burning. At a global scale, burned area and total fire emissions were largely decoupled from year to year. Total carbon emissions tracked burning in forested areas (including deforestation fires in the tropics, whereas burned area was largely controlled by savanna fires that responded to different environmental and human factors. Biomass burning emissions showed large interannual variability with a range of more than 1 Pg C year−1, with a maximum in 1998 (3.2 Pg C year−1 and a minimum in 2000 (2.0 Pg C year−1.

  18. Model studies on the global impact of aviation emissions on aerosol and climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Righi, M.; Hendricks, J.; Sausen, R.

    2015-12-01

    We use the EMAC global model with the aerosol module MADE to quantify the impact of aviation emissions on the global aerosol. We focus on the year 2000, prescribing the emissions according to the CMIP5 inventory, and on the year 2030, according to the four RCP scenarios. Various sensitivity experiments are performed to further quantify: (i) the uncertainty behind different assumptions on the size distribution of aviation-emitted particles; (ii) the effect of aviation fuel sulfur content on the simulated impacts; (iii) the linearity of the system's response to emission perturbation. The simulations show that the aviation impact on particle mass (black carbon and sulfate) is small, on the order of a few percent, whereas a large effect is found for particle number. In the northern mid-latitudes' upper troposphere (7-12 km), up to 30-40% of the modelled particle number concentration is attributable to aviation. Significant effects are also simulated at the ground, due to the emissions from landing and take-off cycles. The aviation induced perturbations to the particle number concentrations are very sensitive to the assumptions on the size distribution of emitted particles and on the fuel sulfur content. The simulated aviation-induced RF in the year 2000 is in the range of -69.5 to 2.4 mW/m2. The bulk of this RF is due to aerosol-cloud effects, in particular to the perturbation of low clouds. All RCP scenarios project an increase in the aviation impact in 2030, ranging between a factor of 2 to 4 with respect to 2000, albeit with large uncertainties.

  19. Interannual variability in global biomass burning emissions from 1997 to 2004

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Werf, G. R.; Randerson, J. T.; Giglio, L.; Collatz, G. J.; Kasibhatla, P. S.; Arellano, A. F., Jr.

    2006-08-01

    Biomass burning represents an important source of atmospheric aerosols and greenhouse gases, yet little is known about its interannual variability or the underlying mechanisms regulating this variability at continental to global scales. Here we investigated fire emissions during the 8 year period from 1997 to 2004 using satellite data and the CASA biogeochemical model. Burned area from 2001-2004 was derived using newly available active fire and 500 m. burned area datasets from MODIS following the approach described by Giglio et al. (2006). ATSR and VIRS satellite data were used to extend the burned area time series back in time through 1997. In our analysis we estimated fuel loads, including organic soil layer and peatland fuels, and the net flux from terrestrial ecosystems as the balance between net primary production (NPP), heterotrophic respiration (Rh), and biomass burning, using time varying inputs of precipitation (PPT), temperature, solar radiation, and satellite-derived fractional absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (fAPAR). For the 1997-2004 period, we found that on average approximately 58 Pg C year-1 was fixed by plants as NPP, and approximately 95% of this was returned back to the atmosphere via Rh. Another 4%, or 2.5 Pg C year-1 was emitted by biomass burning; the remainder consisted of losses from fuel wood collection and subsequent burning. At a global scale, burned area and total fire emissions were largely decoupled from year to year. Total carbon emissions tracked burning in forested areas (including deforestation fires in the tropics), whereas burned area was largely controlled by savanna fires that responded to different environmental and human factors. Biomass burning emissions showed large interannual variability with a range of more than 1 Pg C year-1, with a maximum in 1998 (3.2 Pg C year-1) and a minimum in 2000 (2.0 Pg C year-1).

  20. Interannual variability of global biomass burning emissions from 1997 to 2004

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Werf, G. R.; Randerson, J. T.; Giglio, L.; Collatz, G. J.; Kasibhatla, P. S.; Arellano, A. F., Jr.

    2006-04-01

    Biomass burning represents an important source of atmospheric aerosols and greenhouse gases, yet little is known about its interannual variability or the underlying mechanisms regulating this variability at continental to global scales. Here we investigated fire emissions during the 8 year period from 1997 to 2004 using satellite data and the CASA biogeochemical model. Burned area from 2001-2004 was derived using newly available active fire and 500 m burned area datasets from MODIS following the approach described by Giglio et al. (2005). ATSR and VIRS satellite data were used to extend the burned area time series back in time through 1997. In our analysis we estimated fuel loads, including peatland fuels, and the net flux from terrestrial ecosystems as the balance between net primary production (NPP), heterotrophic respiration (Rh), and biomass burning, using time varying inputs of precipitation (PPT), temperature, solar radiation, and satellite-derived fractional absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (fAPAR). For the 1997-2004 period, we found that on average approximately 58 Pg C year-1 was fixed by plants, and approximately 95% of this was returned back to the atmosphere via Rh. Another 4%, or 2.5 Pg C year-1 was emitted by biomass burning; the remainder consisted of losses from fuel wood collection and subsequent burning. At a global scale, burned area and total fire emissions were largely decoupled from year to year. Total carbon emissions tracked burning in forested areas (including deforestation fires in the tropics), whereas burned area was largely controlled by savanna fires that responded to different environmental and human factors. Biomass burning emissions showed large interannual variability with a range of more than 1 Pg C year-1, with a maximum in 1998 (3.2 Pg C year-1) and a minimum in 2000 (2.0 Pg C year-1).

  1. Impact of transport model errors on the global and regional methane emissions estimated by inverse modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Locatelli

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available A modelling experiment has been conceived to assess the impact of transport model errors on the methane emissions estimated by an atmospheric inversion system. Synthetic methane observations, given by 10 different model outputs from the international TransCom-CH4 model exercise, are combined with a prior scenario of methane emissions and sinks, and integrated into the PYVAR-LMDZ-SACS inverse system to produce 10 different methane emission estimates at the global scale for the year 2005. The same set-up has been used to produce the synthetic observations and to compute flux estimates by inverse modelling, which means that only differences in the modelling of atmospheric transport may cause differences in the estimated fluxes. In our framework, we show that transport model errors lead to a discrepancy of 27 Tg CH4 per year at the global scale, representing 5% of the total methane emissions. At continental and yearly scales, transport model errors have bigger impacts depending on the region, ranging from 36 Tg CH4 in north America to 7 Tg CH4 in Boreal Eurasian (from 23% to 48%. At the model gridbox scale, the spread of inverse estimates can even reach 150% of the prior flux. Thus, transport model errors contribute to significant uncertainties on the methane estimates by inverse modelling, especially when small spatial scales are invoked. Sensitivity tests have been carried out to estimate the impact of the measurement network and the advantage of higher resolution models. The analysis of methane estimated fluxes in these different configurations questions the consistency of transport model errors in current inverse systems. For future methane inversions, an improvement in the modelling of the atmospheric transport would make the estimations more accurate. Likewise, errors of the observation covariance matrix should be more consistently prescribed in future inversions in order to limit the impact of transport model errors on estimated methane

  2. Governance Mechanism for Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions: A Stochastic Differential Game Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei Yu

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Today developed and developing countries have to admit the fact that global warming is affecting the earth, but the fundamental problem of how to divide up necessary greenhouse gas reductions between developed and developing countries remains. In this paper, we propose cooperative and noncooperative stochastic differential game models to describe greenhouse gas emissions decision makings of developed and developing countries, calculate their feedback Nash equilibrium and the Pareto optimal solution, characterize parameter spaces that developed and developing countries can cooperate, design cooperative conditions under which participants buy the cooperative payoff, and distribute the cooperative payoff with Nash bargaining solution. Lastly, numerical simulations are employed to illustrate the above results.

  3. Stratospheric cooling and polar ozone loss due to H2 emissions of a global hydrogen economy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feck, T.; Grooß, J.-U.; Riese, M.; Vogel, B.

    2009-04-01

    "Green" hydrogen is seen as a major element of the future energy supply to reduce greenhouse gas emissions substantially. However, due to the possible interactions of hydrogen (H2) with other atmospheric constituents there is a need to analyse the implications of additional atmospheric H2 that could result from hydrogen leakage of a global hydrogen infrastructure. Emissions of molecular H2 can occur along the whole hydrogen process chain which increase the tropospheric H2 burden. Across the tropical tropopause H2 reaches the stratosphere where it is oxidised and forms water vapour (H2O). This causes increased IR-emissions into space and hence a cooling of the stratosphere. Both effects, the increase of stratospheric H2O and the cooling, enhances the potential of chlorine activation on liquid sulfate aerosol and polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs), which increase polar ozone destruction. Hence a global hydrogen economy could provoke polar ozone loss and could lead to a substantial delay of the current projected recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer. Our investigations show that even if 90% of the current global fossil primary energy input could be replaced by hydrogen and approximately 9.5% of the product gas would leak to the atmosphere, the ozone loss would be increased between 15 to 26 Dobson Units (DU) if the stratospheric CFC loading would retain unchanged. A consistency check of the used approximation methods with the Chemical Lagrangian Model of the Stratosphere (CLaMS) shows that this additional ozone loss can probably be treated as an upper limit. Towards more realistic future H2 leakage rate assumptions (< 3%) the additional ozone loss would be rather small (? 10 DU). However, in all cases the full damage would only occur if stratospheric CFC-levels would retain unchanged. Due to the CFC-prohibition as a result of the Montreal Protocol the forecasts suggest a decline of the stratospheric CFC loading about 50% until 2050. In this case our calculations

  4. Global Warming: Predicting OPEC Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Petroleum Consumption Using Neural Network and Hybrid Cuckoo Search Algorithm.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haruna Chiroma

    Full Text Available Global warming is attracting attention from policy makers due to its impacts such as floods, extreme weather, increases in temperature by 0.7°C, heat waves, storms, etc. These disasters result in loss of human life and billions of dollars in property. Global warming is believed to be caused by the emissions of greenhouse gases due to human activities including the emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2 from petroleum consumption. Limitations of the previous methods of predicting CO2 emissions and lack of work on the prediction of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC CO2 emissions from petroleum consumption have motivated this research.The OPEC CO2 emissions data were collected from the Energy Information Administration. Artificial Neural Network (ANN adaptability and performance motivated its choice for this study. To improve effectiveness of the ANN, the cuckoo search algorithm was hybridised with accelerated particle swarm optimisation for training the ANN to build a model for the prediction of OPEC CO2 emissions. The proposed model predicts OPEC CO2 emissions for 3, 6, 9, 12 and 16 years with an improved accuracy and speed over the state-of-the-art methods.An accurate prediction of OPEC CO2 emissions can serve as a reference point for propagating the reorganisation of economic development in OPEC member countries with the view of reducing CO2 emissions to Kyoto benchmarks--hence, reducing global warming. The policy implications are discussed in the paper.

  5. Global Warming: Predicting OPEC Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Petroleum Consumption Using Neural Network and Hybrid Cuckoo Search Algorithm.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiroma, Haruna; Abdul-kareem, Sameem; Khan, Abdullah; Nawi, Nazri Mohd; Gital, Abdulsalam Ya'u; Shuib, Liyana; Abubakar, Adamu I; Rahman, Muhammad Zubair; Herawan, Tutut

    2015-01-01

    Global warming is attracting attention from policy makers due to its impacts such as floods, extreme weather, increases in temperature by 0.7°C, heat waves, storms, etc. These disasters result in loss of human life and billions of dollars in property. Global warming is believed to be caused by the emissions of greenhouse gases due to human activities including the emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) from petroleum consumption. Limitations of the previous methods of predicting CO2 emissions and lack of work on the prediction of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) CO2 emissions from petroleum consumption have motivated this research. The OPEC CO2 emissions data were collected from the Energy Information Administration. Artificial Neural Network (ANN) adaptability and performance motivated its choice for this study. To improve effectiveness of the ANN, the cuckoo search algorithm was hybridised with accelerated particle swarm optimisation for training the ANN to build a model for the prediction of OPEC CO2 emissions. The proposed model predicts OPEC CO2 emissions for 3, 6, 9, 12 and 16 years with an improved accuracy and speed over the state-of-the-art methods. An accurate prediction of OPEC CO2 emissions can serve as a reference point for propagating the reorganisation of economic development in OPEC member countries with the view of reducing CO2 emissions to Kyoto benchmarks--hence, reducing global warming. The policy implications are discussed in the paper.

  6. Global Scale Attribution of Anthropogenic and Natural Dust Sources and their Emission Rates Based on MODIS Deep Blue Aerosol Products

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ginoux, Paul; Prospero, Joseph M.; Gill, Thomas E.; Hsu, N. Christina; Zhao, Ming

    2012-01-01

    Our understanding of the global dust cycle is limited by a dearth of information about dust sources, especially small-scale features which could account for a large fraction of global emissions. Here we present a global-scale high-resolution (0.1 deg) mapping of sources based on Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Deep Blue estimates of dust optical depth in conjunction with other data sets including land use. We ascribe dust sources to natural and anthropogenic (primarily agricultural) origins, calculate their respective contributions to emissions, and extensively compare these products against literature. Natural dust sources globally account for 75% of emissions; anthropogenic sources account for 25%. North Africa accounts for 55% of global dust emissions with only 8% being anthropogenic, mostly from the Sahel. Elsewhere, anthropogenic dust emissions can be much higher (75% in Australia). Hydrologic dust sources (e.g., ephemeral water bodies) account for 31% worldwide; 15% of them are natural while 85% are anthropogenic. Globally, 20% of emissions are from vegetated surfaces, primarily desert shrublands and agricultural lands. Since anthropogenic dust sources are associated with land use and ephemeral water bodies, both in turn linked to the hydrological cycle, their emissions are affected by climate variability. Such changes in dust emissions can impact climate, air quality, and human health. Improved dust emission estimates will require a better mapping of threshold wind velocities, vegetation dynamics, and surface conditions (soil moisture and land use) especially in the sensitive regions identified here, as well as improved ability to address small-scale convective processes producing dust via cold pool (haboob) events frequent in monsoon regimes.

  7. Decarbonizing the Global Economy - An Integrated Assessment of Low Carbon Emission Scenarios proposed in Climate Policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hokamp, Sascha; Khabbazan, Mohammad Mohammadi

    2017-04-01

    In 2015, the Conference of the Parties (COP 21) reaffirmed to targeting the global mean temperature rise below 2 °C in 2100 while finding no consent on decarbonizing the global economy, and instead, the final agreement called for enhanced scientific investigation of low carbon emission scenarios (UNFCC, 2015). In addition, the Climate Action Network International (CAN) proposes Special Reports to address decarbonization and low carbon development including 1.5 °C scenarios (IPCC, 2016). In response to these developments, we investigate whether the carbon emission cuts, in accordance with the recent climate policy proposals, may reach the climate target. To tackle this research question, we employ the coupled climate-energy-economy integrated assessment Model of INvestment and endogenous technological Development (MIND, cf. Edenhofer et al., 2005, Neubersch et al. 2014). Extending MIND's climate module to the two-box version used in the Dynamic Integrated model of Climate and the Economy (DICE, cf. Nordhaus and Sztorc, 2013, Nordhaus 2014), we perform a cost-effectiveness analysis with constraints on anthropogenic carbon emissions. We show that a climate policy scenario with early decarbonization complies with the 2° C climate target, even without Carbon Capturing and Storage (CCS) or negative emissions (see van Vuuren et al., 2013, for negative emissions). However, using emission inertia of 3.7 percent annually, reflecting the inflexibility on transforming the energy sector, we find a climate policy with moderately low emissions from 2100 onwards at a cost in terms of Balanced Growth Equivalents (BGE, cf. Anthoff and Tol, 2009) of 0.764 % that requires an early (2035 vs. 2120) peak of investments in renewable energy production compared to a business-as-usual scenario. Hence, decarbonizing the global economy and achieving the 2 °C target might still be possible before 2100, but the window of opportunity is beginning to close. References: Anthoff, D., and Tol, R

  8. Global Xenon-133 Emission Inventory Caused by Medical Isotope Production and Derived from the Worldwide Technetium-99m Demand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalinowski, Martin B.; Grosch, Martina; Hebel, Simon

    2014-03-01

    Emissions from medical isotope production are the most important source of background for atmospheric radioxenon measurements, which are an essential part of nuclear explosion monitoring. This article presents a new approach for estimating the global annual radioxenon emission inventory caused by medical isotope production using the amount of Tc-99m applications in hospitals as the basis. Tc-99m is the most commonly used isotope in radiology and dominates the medical isotope production. This paper presents the first estimate of the global production of Tc-99m. Depending on the production and transport scenario, global xenon emissions of 11-45 PBq/year can be derived from the global isotope demand. The lower end of this estimate is in good agreement with other estimations which are making use of reported releases and realistic process simulations. This proves the validity of the complementary assessment method proposed in this paper. It may be of relevance for future emission scenarios and for estimating the contribution to the global source term from countries and operators that do not make sufficient radioxenon release information available. It depends on sound data on medical treatments with radio-pharmaceuticals and on technical information on the production process of the supplier. This might help in understanding the apparent underestimation of the global emission inventory that has been found by atmospheric transport modelling.

  9. Quantifying the uncertainty in simulating global tropospheric composition due to the variability in global emission estimates of Biogenic Volatile Organic Compounds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. E. Williams

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available The emission of organic compounds from biogenic processes acts as an important source of trace gases in remote regions away from urban conurbations, and is likely to become more important in future decades due to the further mitigation of anthropogenic emissions that affect air quality and climate forcing. In this study we examine the contribution of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs towards global tropospheric composition using the global 3-D chemistry transport model TM5 and the recently developed modified CB05 chemical mechanism. By comparing regional BVOC emission estimates we show that biogenic processes act as dominant sources for many regions and exhibit a large variability in the annually and seasonally integrated emission fluxes. By performing sensitivity studies we find that the contribution of BVOC species containing between 1 to 3 carbon atoms has an impact on the resident mixing ratios of tropospheric O3 and CO, accounting for ~3% and ~11% of the simulated global distribution, respectively. This is approximately a third of the cumulative effect introduced by isoprene and the monoterpenes. By examining an ensemble of 3-D global chemistry-transport simulations which adopt different global BVOC emission inventories we determine the associated uncertainty introduced towards simulating the composition of the troposphere for the year 2000. By comparing the model ensemble values against a~composite of atmospheric measurements we show that the effects on tropospheric O3 are limited to the lower troposphere (with an uncertainty between −2% to 10%, whereas that for tropospheric CO extends up to the upper troposphere (with an uncertainty of between 10 to 45%. Comparing the mixing ratios for low molecular weight alkenes in TM5 against surface measurements taken in Europe implies that the cumulative emission estimates are too low, regardless of the chosen BVOC inventory. This variability in the global

  10. Mitigation potential and global health impacts from emissions pricing of food commodities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Springmann, Marco; Mason-D'Croz, Daniel; Robinson, Sherman; Wiebe, Keith; Godfray, H. Charles J.; Rayner, Mike; Scarborough, Peter

    2017-01-01

    The projected rise in food-related greenhouse gas emissions could seriously impede efforts to limit global warming to acceptable levels. Despite that, food production and consumption have long been excluded from climate policies, in part due to concerns about the potential impact on food security. Using a coupled agriculture and health modelling framework, we show that the global climate change mitigation potential of emissions pricing of food commodities could be substantial, and that levying greenhouse gas taxes on food commodities could, if appropriately designed, be a health-promoting climate policy in high-income countries, as well as in most low- and middle-income countries. Sparing food groups known to be beneficial for health from taxation, selectively compensating for income losses associated with tax-related price increases, and using a portion of tax revenues for health promotion are potential policy options that could help avert most of the negative health impacts experienced by vulnerable groups, whilst still promoting changes towards diets which are more environmentally sustainable.

  11. Trends and inter-annual variability of methane emissions derived from 1979-1993 global CTM simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Dentener

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available The trend and interannual variability of methane sources are derived from multi-annual simulations of tropospheric photochemistry using a 3-D global chemistry-transport model. Our semi-inverse analysis uses the fifteen years (1979--1993 re-analysis of ECMWF meteorological data and annually varying emissions including photo-chemistry, in conjunction with observed CH4 concentration distributions and trends derived from the NOAA-CMDL surface stations. Dividing the world in four zonal regions (45--90 N, 0--45 N, 0--45 S, 45--90 S we find good agreement in each region between (top-down calculated emission trends from model simulations and (bottom-up estimated anthropogenic emission trends based on the EDGAR global anthropogenic emission database, which amounts for the period 1979--1993 2.7 Tg CH4 yr-1. Also the top-down determined total global methane emission compares well with the total of the bottom-up estimates. We use the difference between the bottom-up and top-down determined emission trends to calculate residual emissions. These residual emissions represent the inter-annual variability of the methane emissions. Simulations have been performed in which the year-to-year meteorology, the emissions of ozone precursor gases, and the stratospheric ozone column distribution are either varied, or kept constant. In studies of methane trends it is most important to include the trends and variability of the oxidant fields. The analyses reveals that the variability of the emissions is of the order of 8Tg CH4 yr-1, and likely related to wetland emissions and/or biomass burning.

  12. Climate change impact of livestock CH4 emission in India: Global temperature change potential (GTP) and surface temperature response.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumari, Shilpi; Hiloidhari, Moonmoon; Kumari, Nisha; Naik, S N; Dahiya, R P

    2017-09-12

    Two climate metrics, Global surface Temperature Change Potential (GTP) and the Absolute GTP (AGTP) are used for studying the global surface temperature impact of CH4 emission from livestock in India. The impact on global surface temperature is estimated for 20 and 100 year time frames due to CH4 emission. The results show that the CH4 emission from livestock, worked out to 15.3 Tg in 2012. In terms of climate metrics GTP of livestock-related CH4 emission in India in 2012 were 1030 Tg CO2e (GTP20) and 62 Tg CO2e (GTP100) at the 20 and 100 year time horizon, respectively. The study also illustrates that livestock-related CH4 emissions in India can cause a surface temperature increase of up to 0.7mK and 0.036mK over the 20 and 100 year time periods, respectively. The surface temperature response to a year of Indian livestock emission peaks at 0.9mK in the year 2021 (9 years after the time of emission). The AGTP gives important information in terms of temperature change due to annual CH4 emissions, which is useful when comparing policies that address multiple gases. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. The role of biofuels for transportation in CO{sub 2} emission reduction scenarios with global versus regional carbon caps

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Grahn, Maria; Azar, Christian; Lindgren, Kristian [Department of Energy and Environment, Physical Resource Theory, Chalmers University of Technology, 412 96 Goeteborg (Sweden)

    2009-03-15

    This study analyzes how international climate regimes affect cost-efficiency of fuel choices in the transportation sector. The analysis is carried out with a regionalized version of the Global Energy Transition model, GET-R 6.0. Two different carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) reduction scenarios are applied, both meeting an atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration target of 450 ppm by the year 2100. The first scenario, ''global cap'' (GC), uses a global cap on CO{sub 2} emissions, and global emissions trading is allowed. In the second scenario, ''regional caps'' (RC), industrialized regions start to reduce their CO{sub 2} emissions by 2010 while developing regions may wait several decades and emission reductions are not tradable across regions. In this second scenario, CO{sub 2} emissions are assumed to meet an equal per capita distribution of 1.0 tC/capita, in all six regions, by 2040; emissions then follow a common reduction path, toward approximately 0.2 tC/capita by 2100. Three main results emerge from our analysis: (i) the use of biofuels in the industrialized regions is significantly higher in RC than in GC; (ii) the use of biofuels in RC actually increases the weaker (i.e., higher) the CO{sub 2} concentration target (up to 550 ppm); and (iii) biofuels never play a dominant role in the transportation sector. We find that biofuels may play a more important role in industrialized countries if these take on their responsibilities and reduce their emissions before developing countries start reducing their emissions, compared to the case in which all countries take action under a global cap and trade emission reduction regime. (author)

  14. First space-based derivation of the global atmospheric methanol emission fluxes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Stavrakou

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available This study provides improved methanol emission estimates on the global scale, in particular for the largest methanol source, the terrestrial biosphere, and for biomass burning. To this purpose, one complete year of spaceborne measurements of tropospheric methanol columns retrieved for the first time by the thermal infrared sensor IASI aboard the MetOp satellite are compared with distributions calculated by the IMAGESv2 global chemistry-transport model. Two model simulations are performed using a priori biogenic methanol emissions either from the new MEGANv2.1 emission model, which is fully described in this work and is based on net ecosystem flux measurements, or from a previous parameterization based on net primary production by Jacob et al. (2005. A significantly better model performance in terms of both amplitude and seasonality is achieved through the use of MEGANv2.1 in most world regions, with respect to IASI data, and to surface- and air-based methanol measurements, even though important discrepancies over several regions are still present. As a second step of this study, we combine the MEGANv2.1 and the IASI column abundances over continents in an inverse modelling scheme based on the adjoint of the IMAGESv2 model to generate an improved global methanol emission source. The global optimized source totals 187 Tg yr−1 with a contribution of 100 Tg yr−1 from plants, only slightly lower than the a priori MEGANv2.1 value of 105 Tg yr−1. Large decreases with respect to the MEGANv2.1 biogenic source are inferred over Amazonia (up to 55 % and Indonesia (up to 58 %, whereas more moderate reductions are recorded in the Eastern US (20–25 % and Central Africa (25–35 %. On the other hand, the biogenic source is found to strongly increase in the arid and semi-arid regions of Central Asia (up to a factor of 5 and Western US (factor of 2, probably due to a source of methanol specific to these ecosystems which

  15. A Global Maritime Emissions Trading System. Design and Impacts on the Shipping Sector, Countries and Regions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Faber, J.; Markowska, A.; Eyring, V.; Cionni, I.; Selstad, E. Shipping / Emissions trading / Economy / Costs / Effects / Developing countries Publication number:

    2010-01-15

    This report designs a global cap-and-trade scheme for maritime transport and assesses its impacts on the shipping sector, regions and groups of countries. It shows that it is feasible to implement a cap-and-trade scheme for greenhouse gas emissions in the maritime transport sector. Such a scheme ensures that the environmental target is met, while allowing the sector to grow and ensuring that the target is met in the most cost-effective way. An emissions trading scheme would result in an increase in the costs of shipping of less than 10%, depending on the price of allowances. The increase in import values is likely to be less than 1% for most commodity groups, and the impact on consumer prices even lower. Using new data on emissions of ships sailing to regions and country groups, this report demonstrates that the additional costs of imports for most regions and country groups are estimated to be less than 0.2% of GDP, with a few exceptions. This report demonstrates that it is possible to compensate developing countries for the increased costs of imports by using approximately two thirds of the revenues of the auction. The remainder of the revenues can be used for other aims, such as R and D into fuel-efficiency of ships.

  16. Analysis of the Global Warming Potential of Biogenic CO2 Emission in Life Cycle Assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Weiguo; Zhang, Zhonghui; Xie, Xinfeng; Yu, Zhen; von Gadow, Klaus; Xu, Junming; Zhao, Shanshan; Yang, Yuchun

    2017-01-01

    Biomass is generally believed to be carbon neutral. However, recent studies have challenged the carbon neutrality hypothesis by introducing metric indicators to assess the global warming potential of biogenic CO2 (GWPbio). In this study we calculated the GWPbio factors using a forest growth model and radiative forcing effects with a time horizon of 100 years and applied the factors to five life cycle assessment (LCA) case studies of bioproducts. The forest carbon change was also accounted for in the LCA studies. GWPbio factors ranged from 0.13–0.32, indicating that biomass could be an attractive energy resource when compared with fossil fuels. As expected, short rotation and fast-growing biomass plantations produced low GWPbio. Long-lived wood products also allowed more regrowth of biomass to be accounted as absorption of the CO2 emission from biomass combustion. The LCA case studies showed that the total life cycle GHG emissions were closely related to GWPbio and energy conversion efficiency. By considering the GWPbio factors and the forest carbon change, the production of ethanol and bio-power appeared to have higher GHG emissions than petroleum-derived diesel at the highest GWPbio. PMID:28045111

  17. Analysis of the Global Warming Potential of Biogenic CO2 Emission in Life Cycle Assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Weiguo; Zhang, Zhonghui; Xie, Xinfeng; Yu, Zhen; von Gadow, Klaus; Xu, Junming; Zhao, Shanshan; Yang, Yuchun

    2017-01-01

    Biomass is generally believed to be carbon neutral. However, recent studies have challenged the carbon neutrality hypothesis by introducing metric indicators to assess the global warming potential of biogenic CO2 (GWPbio). In this study we calculated the GWPbio factors using a forest growth model and radiative forcing effects with a time horizon of 100 years and applied the factors to five life cycle assessment (LCA) case studies of bioproducts. The forest carbon change was also accounted for in the LCA studies. GWPbio factors ranged from 0.13–0.32, indicating that biomass could be an attractive energy resource when compared with fossil fuels. As expected, short rotation and fast-growing biomass plantations produced low GWPbio. Long-lived wood products also allowed more regrowth of biomass to be accounted as absorption of the CO2 emission from biomass combustion. The LCA case studies showed that the total life cycle GHG emissions were closely related to GWPbio and energy conversion efficiency. By considering the GWPbio factors and the forest carbon change, the production of ethanol and bio-power appeared to have higher GHG emissions than petroleum-derived diesel at the highest GWPbio.

  18. Analysis of the Global Warming Potential of Biogenic CO2 Emission in Life Cycle Assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Weiguo; Zhang, Zhonghui; Xie, Xinfeng; Yu, Zhen; von Gadow, Klaus; Xu, Junming; Zhao, Shanshan; Yang, Yuchun

    2017-01-03

    Biomass is generally believed to be carbon neutral. However, recent studies have challenged the carbon neutrality hypothesis by introducing metric indicators to assess the global warming potential of biogenic CO2 (GWPbio). In this study we calculated the GWPbio factors using a forest growth model and radiative forcing effects with a time horizon of 100 years and applied the factors to five life cycle assessment (LCA) case studies of bioproducts. The forest carbon change was also accounted for in the LCA studies. GWPbio factors ranged from 0.13-0.32, indicating that biomass could be an attractive energy resource when compared with fossil fuels. As expected, short rotation and fast-growing biomass plantations produced low GWPbio. Long-lived wood products also allowed more regrowth of biomass to be accounted as absorption of the CO2 emission from biomass combustion. The LCA case studies showed that the total life cycle GHG emissions were closely related to GWPbio and energy conversion efficiency. By considering the GWPbio factors and the forest carbon change, the production of ethanol and bio-power appeared to have higher GHG emissions than petroleum-derived diesel at the highest GWPbio.

  19. Modeling and evaluation of the global sea-salt aerosol distribution: sensitivity to emission schemes and resolution effects at coastal/orographic sites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spada, M.; Jorba, O.; Pérez García-Pando, C.; Janjic, Z.; Baldasano, J. M.

    2013-12-01

    One of the major sources of uncertainty in model estimates of the global sea-salt aerosol distribution is the emission parameterization. We evaluate a new sea-salt aerosol life cycle module coupled to the online multiscale chemical transport model NMMB/BSC-CTM. We compare 5 yr global simulations using five state-of-the-art sea-salt open-ocean emission schemes with monthly averaged coarse aerosol optical depth (AOD) from selected AERONET sun photometers, surface concentration measurements from the University of Miami's Ocean Aerosol Network, and measurements from two NOAA/PMEL cruises (AEROINDOEX and ACE1). Model results are highly sensitive to the introduction of sea-surface-temperature (SST)-dependent emissions and to the accounting of spume particles production. Emission ranges from 3888 Tg yr-1 to 8114 Tg yr-1, lifetime varies between 7.3 h and 11.3 h, and the average column mass load is between 5.0 Tg and 7.2 Tg. Coarse AOD is reproduced with an overall correlation of around 0.5 and with normalized biases ranging from +8.8% to +38.8%. Surface concentration is simulated with normalized biases ranging from -9.5% to +28% and the overall correlation is around 0.5. Our results indicate that SST-dependent emission schemes improve the overall model performance in reproducing surface concentrations. On the other hand, they lead to an overestimation of the coarse AOD at tropical latitudes, although it may be affected by uncertainties in the comparison due to the use of all-sky model AOD, the treatment of water uptake, deposition and optical properties in the model and/or an inaccurate size distribution at emission.

  20. Global spatially explicit CO2 emission metrics at 0.25° horizontal resolution for forest bioenergy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cherubini, F.

    2015-12-01

    Bioenergy is the most important renewable energy option in studies designed to align with future RCP projections, reaching approximately 250 EJ/yr in RCP2.6, 145 EJ/yr in RCP4.5 and 180 EJ/yr in RCP8.5 by the end of the 21st century. However, many questions enveloping the direct carbon cycle and climate response to bioenergy remain partially unexplored. Bioenergy systems are largely assessed under the default climate neutrality assumption and the time lag between CO2 emissions from biomass combustion and CO2 uptake by vegetation is usually ignored. Emission metrics of CO2 from forest bioenergy are only available on a case-specific basis and their quantification requires processing of a wide spectrum of modelled or observed local climate and forest conditions. On the other hand, emission metrics are widely used to aggregate climate impacts of greenhouse gases to common units such as CO2-equivalents (CO2-eq.), but a spatially explicit analysis of emission metrics with global forest coverage is today lacking. Examples of emission metrics include the global warming potential (GWP), the global temperature change potential (GTP) and the absolute sustained emission temperature (aSET). Here, we couple a global forest model, a heterotrophic respiration model, and a global climate model to produce global spatially explicit emission metrics for CO2 emissions from forest bioenergy. We show their applications to global emissions in 2015 and until 2100 under the different RCP scenarios. We obtain global average values of 0.49 ± 0.03 kgCO2-eq. kgCO2-1 (mean ± standard deviation), 0.05 ± 0.05 kgCO2-eq. kgCO2-1, and 2.14·10-14 ± 0.11·10-14 °C (kg yr-1)-1, and 2.14·10-14 ± 0.11·10-14 °C (kg yr-1)-1 for GWP, GTP and aSET, respectively. We also present results aggregated at a grid, national and continental level. The metrics are found to correlate with the site-specific turnover times and local climate variables like annual mean temperature and precipitation. Simplified

  1. Hourly model to estimate solar global radiation for all months of the year for Botucatu, Sao Paulo State; Modelos horarios para estimativa da radiacao solar global para todos os meses do ano para Botucatu-SP

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Laperuta Filho, Jayme; Lunardi, Dalva M. Cury [UNESP, Botucatu, SP (Brazil). Faculdade de Ciencias Agronomicas

    1997-12-31

    The objective of this work was establish and daily models for estimate of solar global radiation for the months of the year, in Botucatu-SP 22 deg C 52`S,48 deg C 26`W Grw). The obtention of these models showed be viable high degree of reliability considering that they are specific for hours and months that originated them. The coefficients a and b presented monthly and hourly variations, taking into account that b showed higher relative variability than a. In all months studied, the linear adjustment was not appropriate before 7 a.m and after 5 p.m. (author) 7 refs., 5 tabs.

  2. Cattle ranching intensification in Brazil can reduce global greenhouse gas emissions by sparing land from deforestation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohn, Avery S; Mosnier, Aline; Havlík, Petr; Valin, Hugo; Herrero, Mario; Schmid, Erwin; O'Hare, Michael; Obersteiner, Michael

    2014-05-20

    This study examines whether policies to encourage cattle ranching intensification in Brazil can abate global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by sparing land from deforestation. We use an economic model of global land use to investigate, from 2010 to 2030, the global agricultural outcomes, land use changes, and GHG abatement resulting from two potential Brazilian policies: a tax on cattle from conventional pasture and a subsidy for cattle from semi-intensive pasture. We find that under either policy, Brazil could achieve considerable sparing of forests and abatement of GHGs, in line with its national policy targets. The land spared, particularly under the tax, is far less than proportional to the productivity increased. However, the tax, despite prompting less adoption of semi-intensive ranching, delivers slightly more forest sparing and GHG abatement than the subsidy. This difference is explained by increased deforestation associated with increased beef consumption under the subsidy and reduced deforestation associated with reduced beef consumption under the tax. Complementary policies to directly limit deforestation could help limit these effects. GHG abatement from either the tax or subsidy appears inexpensive but, over time, the tax would become cheaper than the subsidy. A revenue-neutral combination of the policies could be an element of a sustainable development strategy for Brazil and other emerging economies seeking to balance agricultural development and forest protection.

  3. VEM on VERITAS - Retrieval of global infrared surface emissivity maps of Venus and expectable retrieval uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kappel, David; Arnold, Gabriele; Haus, Rainer; Helbert, Jörn; Smrekar, Suzanne; Hensley, Scott

    2016-04-01

    ('Venus Emissivity, Radio Science, InSAR, Topography, and Spectroscopy') comprises two instruments, VEM ('Venus Emissivity Mapper') and VISAR ('Venus Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar'). This mission will yield a vastly improved data basis with respect to both high SNR Venus nightside radiance measurements at all transparency windows around 1 μm as well as topography maps. The new data will enable the derivation of much more complete and reliable global surface emissivity maps that are required to answer fundamental geologic questions. Here, we discuss the selection of the wavelength ranges covered by the spectral filters of VEM as well as improved estimates of expectable emissivity retrieval errors based on this selection. For this purpose, the locations of the relevant spectral transparency windows are studied with detailed line-by-line radiative transfer simulations in dependence on different spectral line databases. Recent work on VIRTIS-M-IR/VEX measurements indicated the presence of interferences due to ever-varying atmospheric parameters that cannot be derived from radiance measurements with limited spectral information content to be a dominant source of surface emissivity retrieval errors. This work is carried over to the configuration of VEM, and the retrieval pipeline is optimized to minimize such errors. A portion of this work was performed at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology under a contract with NASA.

  4. Future energy consumption and emissions in East-, Central- and West-China: Insights from soft-linking two global models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dai, Hancheng; Mischke, Peggy

    2014-01-01

    China's role in the global economy and energy markets is expanding, however many uncertainties with regards to the country's future energy consumption and emissions remain. Large regional disparities between China's provinces exist. Scenario analysis for different sub-regions of China will be use......China's role in the global economy and energy markets is expanding, however many uncertainties with regards to the country's future energy consumption and emissions remain. Large regional disparities between China's provinces exist. Scenario analysis for different sub-regions of China...... will be useful for an improved understanding of China's potential future development and associated global impacts. This study soft-links a global dynamic CGE model and a global technology-rich energy system model. Both models are expanded to include East-, Central-, and West-China. This study shows that soft...

  5. A high-resolution global inventory of fossil fuel CO2 emission derived using a global power plant database and satellite-observed nightlight data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oda, Tomohiro; Maksyutov, Shamil

    2010-05-01

    We developed the Open-source Data Inventory of Anthropogenic CO2 emissions (ODIAC), a global high-resolution fossil fuel CO2 emission inventory for the years 1980-2007, by applying a combination of country-level fuel consumption statistics, a global point source database, and satellite-observed nightlight data. The primary goal of ODIAC is to provide a-priori information of fossil fuel CO2 emission to the flux inversions using observational data of the Japanese Greenhouse Gas Observing Satellite (GOSAT). Fossil fuel CO2 emissions are a critical quantity required by the established flux inversion framework, as it is assumed to be a known quantity. Recent studies have suggested the feasibility of regional flux inversions using satellite-observed CO2 beyond the established global inversion, and thus spatiotemporally detailed information of fossil fuel CO2 emissions will be needed for emerging regional flux inversions. National emissions are often available in the gridded form, and the disaggregation of national emissions have been done using a common surrogate such as population and nightlight data; however, these approaches correlate poorly with sources at a resolution beyond country and city level. In this study, national total emissions were derived from country-level fuel consumption statistics and emissions from point sources were separately calculated. We utilized point source emission and geographic location data available in the global power plant database CARMA (Carbon Monitoring and Action). The individual point source emissions were placed at the exact locations specified by CARMA. Emissions from other sources, the residual of national total emissions minus point source emissions, were distributed using nightlight data obtained by the US Air Force Defense Meteorological Satellite Project-Operational Line Scan (DMSP-OSL) instruments. As DMSP-OSL instruments often meet instrumental saturation over bright regions such as city cores, the single use of normal

  6. TOMS/Earth Probe UV Reflectivity Monthly L3 Global 1x1.25 deg Lat/Lon Grid V008

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This data product contains TOMS/Earth Probe UV Reflectivity Monthly L3 Global 1x1.25 deg Lat/Lon Grid Version 8 data in ASCII format. (The shortname for this Level-3...

  7. A pre-processor of trace gases and aerosols emission fields for regional and global atmospheric chemistry models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. R. Freitas

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available The pre-processor PREP-CHEM-SRC presented in the paper is a comprehensive tool aiming at preparing emissions fields of trace gases and aerosols for use in regional or global transport models. The emissions considered are urban/industrial, biogenic, biomass burning, volcanic, biofuel use and burning from agricultural waste sources from most recent databases or from satellite fire detections for biomass burning. A plumerise model is used to derive the height of smoke emissions from satellite fire products. The pre-processor provides emission fields interpolated onto the transport model grid. Several map projections can be chosen. The way to include these emissions in transport models is also detailed. The pre-processor is coded using Fortran 90 and C and is driven by a namelist allowing the user to choose the type of emissions and the database.

  8. Global standardization of the calculation of CO2 emissions along transport chains-gaps, approaches, perspectives of the global alignment process

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ehrler, V.; Engel, A. van den; Davydenko, I.; Diekmann, D.; Kiel, J.; Lewis, A.; Seidel, S.

    2015-01-01

    The transport industry, consumers, shippers and political bodies are all pressing for a global standard for the calculation of emissions along supply chains. Comparability of the chains’ efficiency, reduction of energy consumption, transparency of the carbon footprint of products and identification

  9. Improvement and evaluation of simulated global biogenic soil NO emissions in an AC-GCM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Steinkamp

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Biogenic NO emissions from soils (SNOx play important direct and indirect roles in tropospheric chemistry. The most widely applied algorithm to calculate SNOx in global models was published 15 years ago by Yienger and Levy (1995, and was based on very few measurements. Since then, numerous new measurements have been published, which we used to build up a compilation of world wide field measurements covering the period from 1978 to 2010. Recently, several satellite-based top-down approaches, which recalculated the different sources of NOx (fossil fuel, biomass burning, soil and lightning, have shown an underestimation of SNOx by the algorithm of Yienger and Levy (1995. Nevertheless, to our knowledge no general improvements of this algorithm, besides suggested scalings of the total source magnitude, have yet been published. Here we present major improvements to the algorithm, which should help to optimize the representation of SNOx in atmospheric-chemistry global climate models, without modifying the underlying principals or mathematical equations. The changes include: (1 using a new landcover map, with twice the number of landcover classes, and using annually varying fertilizer application rates; (2 adopting a fraction of 1.0 % for the applied fertilizer lost as NO, based on our compilation of measurements; (3 using the volumetric soil moisture to distinguish between the wet and dry states; and (4 adjusting the emission factors to reproduce the measured emissions in our compilation (based on either their geometric or arithmetic mean values. These steps lead to increased global annual SNOx, and our total above canopy SNOx source of 8.6 Tg yr−1 (using the geometric mean ends up being close to one of the satellite-based top-down approaches (8.9 Tg yr−1. The above canopy SNOx source using the arithmetic mean is 27.6 Tg yr−1

  10. Methane emissions from global wetlands: An assessment of the uncertainty associated with various wetland extent data sets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Bowen; Tian, Hanqin; Lu, Chaoqun; Chen, Guangsheng; Pan, Shufen; Anderson, Christopher; Poulter, Benjamin

    2017-09-01

    A wide range of estimates on global wetland methane (CH4) fluxes has been reported during the recent two decades. This gives rise to urgent needs to clarify and identify the uncertainty sources, and conclude a reconciled estimate for global CH4 fluxes from wetlands. Most estimates by using bottom-up approach rely on wetland data sets, but these data sets show largely inconsistent in terms of both wetland extent and spatiotemporal distribution. A quantitative assessment of uncertainties associated with these discrepancies among wetland data sets has not been well investigated yet. By comparing the five widely used global wetland data sets (GISS, GLWD, Kaplan, GIEMS and SWAMPS-GLWD), it this study, we found large differences in the wetland extent, ranging from 5.3 to 10.2 million km2, as well as their spatial and temporal distributions among the five data sets. These discrepancies in wetland data sets resulted in large bias in model-estimated global wetland CH4 emissions as simulated by using the Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model (DLEM). The model simulations indicated that the mean global wetland CH4 emissions during 2000-2007 were 177.2 ± 49.7 Tg CH4 yr-1, based on the five different data sets. The tropical regions contributed the largest portion of estimated CH4 emissions from global wetlands, but also had the largest discrepancy. Among six continents, the largest uncertainty was found in South America. Thus, the improved estimates of wetland extent and CH4 emissions in the tropical regions and South America would be a critical step toward an accurate estimate of global CH4 emissions. This uncertainty analysis also reveals an important need for our scientific community to generate a global scale wetland data set with higher spatial resolution and shorter time interval, by integrating multiple sources of field and satellite data with modeling approaches, for cross-scale extrapolation.

  11. Modeling the global emission, transport and deposition of trace elements associated with mineral dust

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Zhang

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Trace element deposition from desert dust has important impacts on ocean primary productivity. In this study, emission inventories for 8 elements, which are primarily of soil origin, Mg, P, Ca, Mn, Fe, K, Al, and Si were determined based on a global mineral dataset and a soils dataset. Datasets of elemental fractions were used to drive the desert dust model in the Community Earth System Model (CESM in order to simulate the elemental concentrations of atmospheric dust. Spatial variability of mineral dust elemental fractions was evident on a global scale, particularly for Ca. Simulations of global variations in the Ca / Al ratio, which typically ranged from around 0.1 to 5.0 in soil sources, were consistent with observations, suggesting this ratio to be a good signature for dust source regions. The simulated variable fractions of chemical elements are sufficiently different that estimates of deposition should include elemental variations, especially for Ca, Al and Fe. The model results have been evaluated with observational elemental aerosol concentration data from desert regions and dust events in non-dust regions, providing insights into uncertainties in the modeling approach. The ratios between modeled and observed elemental fractions ranged from 0.7 to 1.6 except for 3.4 and 3.5 for Mg and Mn, respectivly. Using the soil data base improved the correspondence of the spatial hetereogeneity in the modeling of several elements (Ca, Al and Fe compared to observations. Total and soluble dust associated element fluxes into different ocean basins and ice sheets regions have been estimated, based on the model results. Annual inputs of soluble Mg, P, Ca, Mn, Fe and K associated with dust using mineral dataset were 0.28 Tg, 16.89 Gg, 1.32 Tg, 22.84 Gg, 0.068 Tg, and 0.15 Tg to global oceans and ice sheets.

  12. The influence of future non-mitigated road transport emissions on regional ozone exceedences at global scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, J. E.; Hodnebrog, Ø.; van Velthoven, P. F. J.; Berntsen, T. K.; Dessens, O.; Gauss, M.; Grewe, V.; Isaksen, I. S. A.; Olivié, D.; Prather, M. J.; Tang, Q.

    2014-06-01

    Road Transport emissions (RTE) are a significant anthropogenic global NOx source responsible for enhancing the chemical production of tropospheric ozone (O3) in the lower troposphere. Here we analyse a multi-model ensemble which adopts the realistic SRES A1B emission scenario and a “policy-failure” scenario for RTE (A1B_HIGH) for the years 2000, 2025 and 2050. Analysing the regional trends in RTE NOx estimates shows by 2025 that differences of 0.2-0.3 Tg N yr-1 occur for most of the world regions between the A1B and A1B_HIGH estimates, except for Asia where there is a larger difference of ˜1.4 Tg N yr-1. For 2050 these differences fall to ˜0.1 Tg N yr-1, with shipping emissions becoming as important as RTE. Analysing the seasonality in near-surface O3 from the multi-model ensemble monthly mean values shows a large variability in the projected changes between different regions. For Western Europe and the Eastern US although the peak O3 mixing ratios decrease by ˜10% in 2050, there is an associated degradation during wintertime due to less direct titration from nitric oxide. For regions such as Eastern China, although total anthropogenic NOx emissions are reduced from 2025 to 2050, there is no real improvement in peak O3 levels. By normalizing the seasonal ensemble means of near-surface O3 (0-500 m) with the recommended European Commission (EC) exposure limit to derive an exceedence ratio (ER), we show that ER values greater than 1.0 occur across a wide area in the Northern Hemisphere for boreal summer using the year 2000 emissions. When adopting the future A1B_HIGH estimates, the Middle East exhibits the worst regional air quality, closely followed by Asia. For these regions the area of exceedence (ER > 1.0) for 2025 is ˜40% and ˜25% of the total area of each region, respectively. Comparing simulations employing the various scenarios shows that unmitigated RTE increases the area of exceedence in the Middle East by ˜6% and, for Asia, by ˜2% of the total

  13. Enteric methane emissions and efficiency of use of energy in Holstein heifers and steers at age of six months.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiao, H P; Yan, T; McDowell, D A; Carson, A F; Ferris, C P; Easson, D L; Wills, D

    2013-01-01

    Twenty 5-mo-old Holstein cattle (10 steers and 10 heifers) were selected from a dairy herd for a 28 d study of enteric methane emissions and energy utilization. The cattle were offered a completely mixed diet with grass silage and concentrates (0.45 and 0.55, DM basis, respectively). They were housed as a single group in cubicle accommodation for the first 20 d, transferred to metabolism units for 3 d, and subsequently housed in indirect open-circuit respiration calorimeter chambers for next 5 d with measurements of feed intake, feces and urine outputs, and gaseous exchange. There were no significant differences (P>0.05) between the 2 groups in terms of animal performance (feed intake, BW, or BW gain), energy metabolism (energy intake, energy outputs, or energy use efficiency), or methane emission rates (total methane emissions expressed on feed intake or energy intake basis). Therefore, the data from the 2 groups were pooled to develop a range of relationships between inputs and outputs. The regression of energy balance or heat production against ME intake (r2=0.85; Pcattle. The methane energy output was found to be 0.068 of GE intake when the intercept was omitted from the linear equation (r2=0.73; Pcattle used for development of methane emission inventories for dairy and beef production systems. These data can add useful information, as there is little information available on measurements of maintenance energy requirement or methane emissions in young stock (6 mo old) of the current high-yielding dairy cattle. The use of these data can potentially improve the accuracy of prediction of energy requirement and methane emissions for dairy and beef production systems in these dietary conditions.

  14. Climatic changes: what if the global increase of CO2 emissions cannot be kept under control?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L.A. Barreto de Castro

    Full Text Available Climatic changes threaten the planet. Most articles related to the subject present estimates of the disasters expected to occur, but few have proposed ways to deal with the impending menaces. One such threat is the global warming caused by the continuous increase in CO2 emissions leading to rising ocean levels due to the increasing temperatures of the polar regions. This threat is assumed to eventually cause the death of hundreds of millions of people. We propose to desalinize ocean water as a means to reduce the rise of ocean levels and to use this water for populations that need good quality potable water, precisely in the poorest regions of the planet. Technology is available in many countries to provide desalinated water at a justifiable cost considering the lives threatened both in coastal and desertified areas.

  15. Bottom-up simulations of methane and ethane emissions from global oil and gas systems 1980 to 2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    Höglund-Isaksson, Lena

    2017-02-01

    Existing bottom-up emission inventories of methane from global oil and gas systems do not satisfactorily explain year-on-year variation in atmospheric methane estimated by top-down models. Using a novel bottom-up approach this study quantifies and attributes methane and ethane emissions from global oil and gas production from 1980 to 2012. Country-specific information on associated gas flows from published sources are combined with inter-annual variations in observed flaring of associated gas from satellite images from 1994 to 2010, to arrive at country-specific annual estimates of methane and ethane emissions from flows of associated gas. Results confirm trends from top-down models and indicate considerably higher methane and ethane emissions from oil production than previously shown in bottom-up inventories for this time period.

  16. MODIS/Aqua MYD11C2 Land Surface Temperature/Emissivity 8-Day L3 Global 0.05Deg CMG Version 6

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — The MODIS/Aqua Land Surface Temperature and Emissivity (LST/E) products provide per-pixel temperature and emissivity values in a sequence of swath-based global...

  17. MODIS/TERRA MOD11C2 Land Surface Temperature/Emissivity 8-Day L3 Global 0.05Deg CMG Version 6

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — The MODIS/Aqua Land Surface Temperature and Emissivity (LST/E) products provide per-pixel temperature and emissivity values in a sequence of swath-based global...

  18. MODIS/TERRA MOD11B3 Land Surface Temperature and Emissivity Daily L3 Global 5 km Grid SIN Version 6

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — The MODIS/Aqua Land Surface Temperature and Emissivity (LST/E) products provide per-pixel temperature and emissivity values in a sequence of swath-based global...

  19. MODIS/Aqua MYD11A2 Land Surface Temperature & Emissivity 8-Day L3 Global 1km Gird SIN Version 6

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — The MODIS/Aqua Land Surface Temperature and Emissivity (LST/E) products provide per-pixel temperature and emissivity values in a sequence of swath-based global...

  20. MODIS/TERRA MOD11B2 Land Surface Temperature and Emissivity Daily L3 Global 5 km Grid SIN Version 6

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — The MODIS/Aqua Land Surface Temperature and Emissivity (LST/E) products provide per-pixel temperature and emissivity values in a sequence of swath-based global...

  1. MODIS/Aqua MYD11C1 Land Surface Temperature and Emissivity Daily L3 Global 0.05Deg CMG Version 6

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — The MODIS/Aqua Land Surface Temperature and Emissivity (LST/E) products provide per-pixel temperature and emissivity values in a sequence of swath-based global...

  2. MODIS/TERRA MOD11C1 Land Surface Temperature and Emissivity Daily L3 Global 0.05Deg CMG Version 6

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — The MODIS/Aqua Land Surface Temperature and Emissivity (LST/E) products provide per-pixel temperature and emissivity values in a sequence of swath-based global...

  3. MODIS/Aqua MYD11A1 Land Surface Temperature and Emissivity Daily L3 Global 1 km Grid SIN Version 6

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — The MODIS/Aqua Land Surface Temperature and Emissivity (LST/E) products provide per-pixel temperature and emissivity values in a sequence of swath-based global...

  4. MODIS/COMBINED MOD11A1 Land Surface Temperature and Emissivity Daily L3 Global 1 km Grid SIN Version 6

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — The MODIS/Aqua Land Surface Temperature and Emissivity (LST/E) products provide per-pixel temperature and emissivity values in a sequence of swath-based global...

  5. MODIS/TERRA MOD11B1 Land Surface Temperature and Emissivity Daily L3 Global 5 km Grid SIN Version 6

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — The MODIS/Aqua Land Surface Temperature and Emissivity (LST/E) products provide per-pixel temperature and emissivity values in a sequence of swath-based global...

  6. MODIS/Aqua MYD11B1 Land Surface Temperature and Emissivity Daily L3 Global 5 km Grid SIN Version 6

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — The MODIS/Aqua Land Surface Temperature and Emissivity (LST/E) products provide per-pixel temperature and emissivity values in a sequence of swath-based global...

  7. MODIS/TERRA MYD11B3 Land Surface Temperature and Emissivity Daily L3 Global 5 km Grid SIN Version 6

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — The MODIS/Aqua Land Surface Temperature and Emissivity (LST/E) products provide per-pixel temperature and emissivity values in a sequence of swath-based global...

  8. MODIS/TERRA MYD11B2 Land Surface Temperature and Emissivity Daily L3 Global 5 km Grid SIN Version 6

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — The MODIS/Aqua Land Surface Temperature and Emissivity (LST/E) products provide per-pixel temperature and emissivity values in a sequence of swath-based global...

  9. The limits of bioenergy for mitigating global life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Staples, Mark D.; Malina, Robert; Barrett, Steven R. H.

    2017-01-01

    The size of the global bioenergy resource has been studied extensively; however, the corresponding life-cycle greenhouse gas benefit of bioenergy remains largely unexplored at the global scale. Here we quantify the optimal use of global bioenergy resources to offset fossil fuels in 2050. We find that bioenergy could reduce life-cycle emissions from fossil fuel-derived electricity and heat, and liquid fuels, by a maximum of 4.9-38.7 Gt CO2e, or 9-68%, and that offsetting electricity and heat with bioenergy is on average 1.6-3.9 times more effective for emissions mitigation than offsetting liquid fuels. At the same time, liquid fuels make up 18-49% of the optimal allocation of bioenergy in our results for 2050, indicating that a mix of bioenergy end-uses maximizes life-cycle emissions reductions. Finally, emissions reductions are maximized by limiting deployment of total available primary bioenergy to 29-91% in our analysis, demonstrating that life-cycle emissions are a constraint on the usefulness of bioenergy for mitigating global climate change.

  10. Atmospheric observation-based global SF6 emissions – comparison of top-down and bottom-up estimates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. E. Worthy

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Emissions of sulphur hexafluoride (SF6, one of the strongest greenhouse gases on a per molecule basis, are targeted to be collectively reduced under the Kyoto Protocol. Because of its long atmospheric lifetime (≈3000 years, the accumulation of SF6 in the atmosphere is a direct measure of its global emissions. Examination of our extended data set of globally distributed high-precision SF6 observations shows an increase in SF6 abundance from near zero in the 1970s to a global mean of 6.7 ppt by the end of 2008. In-depth evaluation of our long-term data records shows that the global source of SF6 decreased after 1995, most likely due to SF6 emission reductions in industrialised countries, but increased again after 1998. By subtracting those emissions reported by Annex I countries to the United Nations Framework Convention of Climatic Change (UNFCCC from our observation-inferred SF6 source leaves a surprisingly large gap of more than 70–80% of non-reported SF6 emissions in the last decade.

  11. MODIS/AQUA MYD13C2 Vegetation Indices Monthly L3 Global 0.05Deg CMG

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Global MODIS vegetation indices are designed to provide consistent spatial and temporal comparisons of vegetation conditions. Blue, red, and near-infrared...

  12. MODIS/TERRA MOD13C1 Vegetation Indices Monthly L3 Global 0.05Deg CMG

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Global MODIS vegetation indices are designed to provide consistent spatial and temporal comparisons of vegetation conditions. Blue, red, and near-infrared...

  13. Exploring synergies between climate and air quality policies using long-term global and regional emission scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braspenning Radu, Olivia; van den Berg, Maarten; Klimont, Zbigniew; Deetman, Sebastiaan; Janssens-Maenhout, Greet; Muntean, Marilena; Heyes, Chris; Dentener, Frank; van Vuuren, Detlef P.

    2016-09-01

    In this paper, we present ten scenarios developed using the IMAGE2.4 framework (Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment) to explore how different assumptions on future climate and air pollution policies influence emissions of greenhouse gases and air pollutants. These scenarios describe emission developments in 26 world regions for the 21st century, using a matrix of climate and air pollution policies. For climate policy, the study uses a baseline resulting in forcing levels slightly above RCP6.0 and an ambitious climate policy scenario similar to RCP2.6. For air pollution, the study explores increasingly tight emission standards, ranging from no improvement, current legislation and three variants assuming further improvements. For all pollutants, the results show that more stringent control policies are needed after 2030 to prevent a rise in emissions due to increased activities and further reduce emissions. The results also show that climate mitigation policies have the highest impact on SO2 and NOX emissions, while their impact on BC and OC emissions is relatively low, determined by the overlap between greenhouse gas and air pollutant emission sources. Climate policy can have important co-benefits; a 10% decrease in global CO2 emissions by 2100 leads to a decrease of SO2 and NOX emissions by about 10% and 5%, respectively compared to 2005 levels. In most regions, low levels of air pollutant emissions can also be achieved by solely implementing stringent air pollution policies. The largest differences across the scenarios are found in Asia and other developing regions, where a combination of climate and air pollution policy is needed to bring air pollution levels below those of today.

  14. Impacts of the Minamata Conventionon on Mercury Emissions and Global Deposition from Coal-Fired Power Generation in Asia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Giang, Amanda; Stokes, Leah C.; Streets, David G.; Corbitt, Elizabeth S.; Selin, Noelle E.

    2015-05-05

    We explore implications of the United Nations Minamata Convention on Mercury for emissions from Asian coal-fired power generation, and resulting changes to deposition worldwide by 2050. We use engineering analysis, document analysis, and interviews to construct plausible technology scenarios consistent with the Convention. We translate these scenarios into emissions projections for 2050, and use the GEOS-Chem model to calculate global mercury deposition. Where technology requirements in the Convention are flexibly defined, under a global energy and development scenario that relies heavily on coal, we project similar to 90 and 150 Mg.y(-1) of avoided power sector emissions for China and India, respectively, in 2050, compared to a scenario in which only current technologies are used. Benefits of this avoided emissions growth are primarily captured regionally, with projected changes in annual average gross deposition over China and India similar to 2 and 13 mu g.m(-2) lower, respectively, than the current technology case. Stricter, but technologically feasible, mercury control requirements in both countries could lead to a combined additional 170 Mg.y(-1) avoided emissions. Assuming only current technologies but a global transition away from coal avoids 6% and 36% more emissions than this strict technology scenario under heavy coal use for China and India, respectively.

  15. Investigation of aviation emission impacts on global tropospheric chemistry and climate using a size-resolved aerosol-chemistry model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kapadia, Zarashpe; Spracklen, Dominick; Arnold, Stephen; Borman, Duncan; Mann, Graham; Pringle, Kirsty; Monks, Sarah; Reddington, Carly; Rap, Alexandru; Scott, Catherine

    2014-05-01

    Aviation is responsible for 3% of global anthropogenic CO2 emissions, but 2-14% of anthropogenic induced climate warming due to contributions from short lived climate forcers. The global civil aviation fleet is projected to double by 2026 in relation to a 2006 baseline and so will play a substantial role in future climate change. Uncertainty in the net impact of aviation on climate is largely due to uncertainty in the impacts of aviation emissions on ozone and aerosol. To study the impact of aviation emissions we use the GLOMAP-mode global aerosol microphysics model coupled to the 3-D chemical transport model TOMCAT. GLOMAP-mode has been extended to include treatment of nitrate aerosol. We include a full suite of non-CO2 aviation emissions (including NOX, SO2, HCs, BC and OC) in the model. We combined the simulated changes in ozone and aerosol with a 3D radiative transfer model to quantify the radiative effect due to aviation non-CO2 emissions. We find that aviation emissions increase O3 concentrations by up to 5.3% in the upper troposphere (UT), broadly matching previous studies. Black carbon (BC) and organic carbon (OC) concentrations increase by 26.5% and 14.6% respectively in the UT, whereas nitrate aerosol is reduced in some regions due to co-emission of NOX and SO2 In the UT, aviation emissions increase both total aerosol number as well as the concentration of particles greater than 70 nm diameter (N70). Entrainment of these particles into the free troposphere results in aviation emissions also increasing N70 in the boundary layer, causing a cooling through the first aerosol indirect effect. We explore differences in these responses compared with those simulated when using the recommended aviation emissions from CMIP5 (5th Climate Model Intercomparison Project), which only include NOX and BC emissions. Our results suggest that aviation emissions of SO2 and HCs neglected by CMIP5 produce important effects on ozone, aerosol number, and N70. We suggest CMIP5

  16. An analytical inversion method for determining regional and global emissions of greenhouse gases: Sensitivity studies and application to halocarbons

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Stohl

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available A new analytical inversion method has been developed to determine the regional and global emissions of long-lived atmospheric trace gases. It exploits in situ measurement data from three global networks and builds on backward simulations with a Lagrangian particle dispersion model. The emission information is extracted from the observed concentration increases over a baseline that is itself objectively determined by the inversion algorithm. The method was applied to two hydrofluorocarbons (HFC-134a, HFC-152a and a hydrochlorofluorocarbon (HCFC-22 for the period January 2005 until March 2007. Detailed sensitivity studies with synthetic as well as with real measurement data were done to quantify the influence on the results of the a priori emissions and their uncertainties as well as of the observation and model errors. It was found that the global a posteriori emissions of HFC-134a, HFC-152a and HCFC-22 all increased from 2005 to 2006. Large increases (21%, 16%, 18%, respectively from 2005 to 2006 were found for China, whereas the emission changes in North America (−9%, 23%, 17%, respectively and Europe (11%, 11%, −4%, respectively were mostly smaller and less systematic. For Europe, the a posteriori emissions of HFC-134a and HFC-152a were slightly higher than the a priori emissions reported to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC. For HCFC-22, the a posteriori emissions for Europe were substantially (by almost a factor 2 higher than the a priori emissions used, which were based on HCFC consumption data reported to the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP. Combined with the reported strongly decreasing HCFC consumption in Europe, this suggests a substantial time lag between the reported time of the HCFC-22 consumption and the actual time of the HCFC-22 emission. Conversely, in China where HCFC consumption is increasing rapidly according to the UNEP data, the a posteriori emissions are only about 40% of the a

  17. Two global climatologies of daily fire emission injection heights since 2003

    Science.gov (United States)

    Remy, Samuel; Veira, Andreas; Paugam, Ronan; Sofiev, Mikhail; Kaiser, Johannes; Marenco, Franco; Burton, Sharon P.; Benedetti, Angela

    2016-04-01

    The Global Fire Assimilation System (GFAS) assimilates Fire Radiative Power (FRP) observations from satellite-based MODIS sensors to produce daily estimates of biomass burning emission. It has been extended to include information about injection heights of biomass burning species provided by two distinct algorithms, which also use meteorological information from the operational weather forecasts of ECMWF. Injection heights are provided by the semi-empirical Sofiev parameterization and an analytical one-dimension Plume Rise Model (PRM). The two algorithms provide estimates for injection heights for each satellite pixel. Similarly to FRP observations, these estimates are then gridded, averaged and assimilated, using a simple observation operator, so as to fill the observational gaps. A global database of daily biomass burning emissions and injection heights at 0.1° resolution has thus been produced for 2003-2015. The database is being extended in near-real-time with the operational GFAS service of the Copernicus Atmospheric Monitoring Service (CAMS). The two injection height datasets were compared against a new dataset of satellite-based plume height observations. The Sofiev parameterization showed a better overall agreement against observations, while the PRM was better at capturing the variability of injection heights and at estimating the injection heights of large fires. The results from both also show a differentiation depending on the type of vegetation. A positive trend with time in median injection heights from the PRM was noted, less marked from the Sofiev parameterization. This is provoked by a negative trend in number of small fires, especially in some regions such as South America. The use of biomass burning emission heights in atmospheric composition forecasts was assessed in two case studies: the SAMBBA campaign which took place in September 2012 in Brazil, and a series of large fire events in the Western U.S. in August 2013. For these case studies

  18. New Research Suggests That Emissions Reductions May Be a Risky and Very Expensive Way to Avoid Dangerous Global Climate Changes

    OpenAIRE

    2007-01-01

    Proponents of greenhouse gas emissions reductions have long assumed that such reductions are the best approach to global climate change control and sometimes argued that they are the least risky approach. It is now generally understood that to be effective such reductions would have to involve most of the world and be very extensive and rapidly implemented. This paper examines the question of whether it is feasible to use only this approach to control dangerous global climate changes, the mos...

  19. The 24-Month Results of the Lutonix Global SFA Registry: Worldwide Experience With Lutonix Drug-Coated Balloon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thieme, Marcus; Von Bilderling, Peter; Paetzel, Christian; Karnabatidis, Dimitrios; Perez Delgado, Julio; Lichtenberg, Michael

    2017-08-28

    The Global SFA Registry sought to assess safety, clinical benefit, and outcomes of the Lutonix 035 drug-coated balloon (DCB) in a heterogeneous, real-world patient population at 12 and 24 months. Numerous clinical studies have evaluated the use of angioplasty for revascularization of femoropopliteal arteries in peripheral arterial disease with restenosis rates of 40% to 60% at 6 to 12 months. Data from recent studies document decreased restenosis rates and improvement in patency in patients receiving angioplasty of femoropopliteal arteries with DCBs. The multicenter, prospective study enrolled 691 patients in 38 centers from 10 countries treated with the Lutonix 035 DCB in femoropopliteal lesions. The primary safety endpoint was freedom from a composite of target vessel restenosis, major index limb amputation, and device- or procedure-related death at 30 days. The primary effectiveness endpoint was freedom from target lesion restenosis at 12 months. Secondary endpoints were acute device and procedural success and clinically assessed primary patency. Freedom at 30 days from the composite safety endpoint was 99.4%. Freedom from target lesion restenosis was 93.4%/89.3% for the overall population, 93.2%/88.2% for long lesions up to 500 mm, and 90.7%/84.6% for in-stent restenosis at 12/24 months. Clinically assessed primary patency by Kaplan-Meier estimates was 85.4%/75.6% at 12/24 months. More than 76% of patients showed improvement of at least 1 Rutherford category. The Global SFA Registry 24-month outcomes confirm the Lutonix 035 DCB is a safe and effective long-term treatment option in real-world patients with peripheral arterial disease with superficial femoral artery lesions, also in long lesions and in-stent restenosis. (Lutonix Global SFA Registry; NCT01864278). Copyright © 2017 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Simulation of Nitrous Oxide Emissions and Estimation of Global Warming Potential in Turfgrass Systems Using the DAYCENT Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yao; Qian, Yaling; Bremer, Dale J; Kaye, Jason P

    2013-07-01

    Nitrous oxide (NO) emissions are an important component of the greenhouse gas budget for turfgrasses. To estimate NO emissions and global warming potential, the DAYCENT ecosystem model was parameterized and applied to turfgrass ecosystems. The annual cumulative NO emissions predicted by the DAYCENT model were close to the measured emission rates of Kentucky bluegrass ( L.) sites in Colorado (within 16% of the observed values). For the perennial ryegrass ( L.) site in Kansas, the DAYCENT model initially overestimated the NO emissions for all treatments (urea and ammonium sulfate at 250 kg N ha yr and urea at 50 kg N ha yr) by about 200%. After including the effect of biological nitrification inhibition in the root exudate of perennial ryegrass, the DAYCENT model correctly simulated the NO emissions for all treatments (within 8% of the observed values). After calibration and validation, the DAYCENT model was used to simulate NO emissions and carbon sequestration of a Kentucky bluegrass lawn under a series of management regimes. The model simulation suggested that gradually reducing fertilization as the lawn ages from 0 to 50 yr would significantly reduce long-term NO emissions by approximately 40% when compared with applying N at a constant rate of 150 kg N ha yr. Our simulation indicates that a Kentucky bluegrass lawn in Colorado could change from a sink to a weak source of greenhouse gas emissions 20 to 30 yr after establishment.

  1. Greenhouse gas emissions and global warming potential of traditional and diversified tropical rice rotation systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weller, Sebastian; Janz, Baldur; Jörg, Lena; Kraus, David; Racela, Heathcliff S U; Wassmann, Reiner; Butterbach-Bahl, Klaus; Kiese, Ralf

    2016-01-01

    Global rice agriculture will be increasingly challenged by water scarcity, while at the same time changes in demand (e.g. changes in diets or increasing demand for biofuels) will feed back on agricultural practices. These factors are changing traditional cropping patterns from double-rice cropping to the introduction of upland crops in the dry season. For a comprehensive assessment of greenhouse gas (GHG) balances, we measured methane (CH4 )/nitrous oxide (N2 O) emissions and agronomic parameters over 2.5 years in double-rice cropping (R-R) and paddy rice rotations diversified with either maize (R-M) or aerobic rice (R-A) in upland cultivation. Introduction of upland crops in the dry season reduced irrigation water use and CH4 emissions by 66-81% and 95-99%, respectively. Moreover, for practices including upland crops, CH4 emissions in the subsequent wet season with paddy rice were reduced by 54-60%. Although annual N2 O emissions increased two- to threefold in the diversified systems, the strong reduction in CH4 led to a significantly lower (P < 0.05) annual GWP (CH4  + N2 O) as compared to the traditional double-rice cropping system. Measurements of soil organic carbon (SOC) contents before and 3 years after the introduction of upland crop rotations indicated a SOC loss for the R-M system, while for the other systems SOC stocks were unaffected. This trend for R-M systems needs to be followed as it has significant consequences not only for the GWP balance but also with regard to soil fertility. Economic assessment showed a similar gross profit span for R-M and R-R, while gross profits for R-A were reduced as a consequence of lower productivity. Nevertheless, regarding a future increase in water scarcity, it can be expected that mixed lowland-upland systems will expand in SE Asia as water requirements were cut by more than half in both rotation systems with upland crops.

  2. A global wildfire emission and atmopsheric composition impact in 2000-2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sofiev, Mikhail; Soares, Joana; Hakkarainen, Janne; Ermakova, Tatjana; Vankevich, Roman

    2013-04-01

    A global re-analysis of 2000-2012 of main characteristics of wild-land fires and their impact on air quality is presented: (i) emission fluxes of key atmospheric pollutants; (ii) land-use-specific diurnal variations of the fire intensity; (iii) vertical distribution of the emitted plumes, (iv) atmospheric transport and transformation of the emitted species and their impact on atmospheric chemical composition and optical features. The reanalysis is a product of application of the IS4FIRES system to the Fire Radiative Power (FRP) products of MODIS and SEVIRI, which are combined with land-use information and meteorological parameters. For the system calibration and evaluation we used MODIS AOD observations, MISR plume-top height data, and TRMM VIRS hot-spot counts. The emission fluxes are obtained by scaling FRP to PM emission with further cross-scaling to other species. The calibration distinguished between forest, grass, and mixed vegetation types. Atmospheric transport and transformation are computed by the SILAM modelling system, which takes into account also anthropogenic and natural sources and computes gas-phase transformations and secondary aerosol formation. The model is equipped with the plume-rise algorithm developed specifically for the wild-land fires. The vertical injection profiles are based on semi-empirical formula calculating the plume top height from FRP, boundary layer height, and Brunt-Vaisala frequency. The downside of the FRP data is its instantaneous nature. As a result, compilation of both historical and near-real-time emission inventories requires interpolation of the FRP between the satellite screenshots. This has proven complicated: low-orbit satellites provide just a few screenshots per day, whereas geostationary instruments have insufficient sensitivity and spatial resolution. However, with a help of the hot-spot counts from equatorial-orbit TRMM VIRS instrument, it was possible to obtain the diurnal variation of the fire intensity. It

  3. Speciation of anthropogenic emissions of non-methane volatile organic compounds: a global gridded data set for 1970–2012

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Huang

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs include a large number of chemical species which differ significantly in their chemical characteristics and thus in their impacts on ozone and secondary organic aerosol formation. It is important that chemical transport models (CTMs simulate the chemical transformation of the different NMVOC species in the troposphere consistently. In most emission inventories, however, only total NMVOC emissions are reported, which need to be decomposed into classes to fit the requirements of CTMs. For instance, the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR provides spatially resolved global anthropogenic emissions of total NMVOCs. In this study the EDGAR NMVOC inventory was revised and extended in time and in sectors. Moreover the new version of NMVOC emission data in the EDGAR database were disaggregated on a detailed sector resolution to individual species or species groups, thus enhancing the usability of the NMVOC emission data by the modelling community. Region- and source-specific speciation profiles of NMVOC species or species groups are compiled and mapped to EDGAR processes (detailed resolution of sectors, with corresponding quality codes specifying the quality of the mapping. Individual NMVOC species in different profiles are aggregated to 25 species groups, in line with the common classification of the Global Emissions Initiative (GEIA. Global annual grid maps with a resolution of 0.1°  ×  0.1° for the period 1970–2012 are produced by sector and species. Furthermore, trends in NMVOC composition are analysed, taking road transport and residential sources in Germany and the United Kingdom (UK as examples.

  4. Historical Pattern and Future Trajectories of Terrestrial N2O Emission driven by Multi-factor Global Changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, C.; Tian, H.; Yang, J.; Zhang, B.; Xu, R.

    2015-12-01

    Nitrous oxide (N2O) is among the most important greenhouse gases only next to carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) due to its long life time and high radiative forcing (with a global warming potential 265 times as much as CO2 at 100-year time horizon). The Atmospheric concentration of N2O has increased by 20% since pre-industrial era, and this increase plays a significant role in shaping anthropogenic climate change. However, compared to CO2- and CH4-related research, fewer studies have been performed in assessing and predicting the spatiotemporal patterns of N2O emission from natural and agricultural soils. Here we used a coupled biogeochemical model, DLEM, to quantify the historical and future changes in global terrestrial N2O emissions resulting from natural and anthropogenic perturbations including climate variability, atmospheric CO2 concentration, nitrogen deposition, land use and land cover changes, and agricultural land management practices (i.e., synthetic nitrogen fertilizer use, manure application, and irrigation etc.) over the period 1900-2099. We focused on inter-annual variation and long-term trend of terrestrial N2O emission driven by individual and combined environmental changes during historical and future periods. The sensitivity of N2O emission to climate, atmospheric composition, and human activities has been examined at biome-, latitudinal, continental and global scales. Future projections were conducted to identify the hot spots and hot time periods of global N2O emission under two emission scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). It provides a modeling perspective for understanding human-induced N2O emission growth and developing potential management strategies to mitigate further atmospheric N2O increase and climate warming.

  5. Century-scale patterns and trends of global pyrogenic carbon emissions and fire influences on terrestrial carbon balance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Jia; Tian, Hanqin; Tao, Bo; Ren, Wei; Lu, Chaoqun; Pan, Shufen; Wang, Yuhang; Liu, Yongqiang

    2015-09-01

    Fires have consumed a large amount of terrestrial organic carbon and significantly influenced terrestrial ecosystems and the physical climate system over the past century. Although biomass burning has been widely investigated at a global level in recent decades via satellite observations, less work has been conducted to examine the century-scale changes in global fire regimes and fire influences on the terrestrial carbon balance. In this study, we investigated global pyrogenic carbon emissions and fire influences on the terrestrial carbon fluxes from 1901 to 2010 by using a process-based land ecosystem model. Our results show a significant declining trend in global pyrogenic carbon emissions between the early 20th century and the mid-1980s but a significant upward trend between the mid-1980s and the 2000s as a result of more frequent fires in ecosystems with high carbon storage, such as peatlands and tropical forests. Over the past 110 years, average pyrogenic carbon emissions were estimated to be 2.43 Pg C yr-1 (1 Pg = 1015 g), and global average combustion rate (defined as carbon emissions per unit area burned) was 537.85 g C m-2 burned area. Due to the impacts of fires, the net primary productivity and carbon sink of global terrestrial ecosystems were reduced by 4.14 Pg C yr-1 and 0.57 Pg C yr-1, respectively. Our study suggests that special attention should be paid to fire activities in the peatlands and tropical forests in the future. Practical management strategies, such as minimizing forest logging and reducing the rate of cropland expansion in the humid regions, are in need to reduce fire risk and mitigate fire-induced greenhouse gases emissions.

  6. Effects of IPCC SRES* emissions scenarios on river runoff: a global perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. W. Arnell

    2003-01-01

    mild climates, higher temperatures mean that peak streamflow moves from spring to winter as less winter precipitation falls as snow. The spatial pattern of changes in the 10-year return period maximum monthly runoff follows changes in annual runoff. Keywords: SRES emissions scenarios, climate change impacts on runoff, multi-decadal variability, macro-scale hydrological model, drought frequency, flood frequency

  7. Role of the Earth degassing (the core emission) for the global tectonics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pavlenkova, Ninel

    2014-05-01

    source of the deep fluids advection and the resulting Earth degassing is the Earth's core with the high content of hydrogen and helium. The regular system of rifts and of the global rings of the earthquake epicenters may be a result of the Earth expansion generated by strong core emission. This system is traced now as zones of the higher hydrogen degassing. The data on the movement of paleomagnetic poles was explained in the fluids-rotation model by rotation of the whole mantle around the liquid core. Such interpretation, however, is too problematic. It is more reliable to propose that there were no any large movements of the continents or of the whole mantle and the mobile magnetic fields were created by the irregular convection in the core.

  8. NOAA Climate Data Record (CDR) of AVHRR Daily and Monthly Aerosol Optical Thickness over Global Oceans, Version 2.0

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This NOAA Climate Data Record (CDR) of Aerosol Optical Thickness (AOT) is derived from data taken over global oceans from the PATMOS-x AVHRR level-2b channel 1 (0.63...

  9. Photosynthesis-dependent Isoprene Emission from Leaf to Planet in a Global Carbon-chemistry-climate Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Unger, N.; Harper, K.; Zeng, Y.; Kiang, N. Y.; Alienov, I.; Arneth, A.; Schurgers, G.; Amelynck, C.; Goldstein, A.; Guenther, A.; hide

    2013-01-01

    We describe the implementation of a biochemical model of isoprene emission that depends on the electron requirement for isoprene synthesis into the FarquharBallBerry leaf model of photosynthesis and stomatal conductance that is embedded within a global chemistry-climate simulation framework. The isoprene production is calculated as a function of electron transport-limited photosynthesis, intercellular and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, and canopy temperature. The vegetation biophysics module computes the photosynthetic uptake of carbon dioxide coupled with the transpiration of water vapor and the isoprene emission rate at the 30 min physical integration time step of the global chemistry-climate model. In the model, the rate of carbon assimilation provides the dominant control on isoprene emission variability over canopy temperature. A control simulation representative of the present-day climatic state that uses 8 plant functional types (PFTs), prescribed phenology and generic PFT-specific isoprene emission potentials (fraction of electrons available for isoprene synthesis) reproduces 50 of the variability across different ecosystems and seasons in a global database of 28 measured campaign-average fluxes. Compared to time-varying isoprene flux measurements at 9 select sites, the model authentically captures the observed variability in the 30 min average diurnal cycle (R2 6496) and simulates the flux magnitude to within a factor of 2. The control run yields a global isoprene source strength of 451 TgC yr1 that increases by 30 in the artificial absence of plant water stress and by 55 for potential natural vegetation.

  10. Photosynthesis-dependent isoprene emission from leaf to planet in a global carbon–chemistry–climate model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Unger

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available We describe the implementation of a biochemical model of isoprene emission that depends on the electron requirement for isoprene synthesis into the Farquhar/Ball–Berry leaf model of photosynthesis and stomatal conductance that is embedded within a global chemistry–climate simulation framework. The isoprene production is calculated as a function of electron transport-limited photosynthesis, intercellular carbon dioxide concentration, and canopy temperature. The vegetation biophysics module computes the photosynthetic uptake of carbon dioxide coupled with the transpiration of water vapor and the isoprene emission rate at the 30 min physical integration time step of the global chemistry–climate model. In the model, the rate of carbon assimilation provides the dominant control on isoprene emission variability over canopy temperature. A control simulation representative of the present day climatic state that uses 8 plant functional types (PFTs, prescribed phenology and generic PFT-specific isoprene emission potentials (fraction of electrons available for isoprene synthesis reproduces 50% of the variability across different ecosystems and seasons in a global database of 28 measured campaign-average fluxes. Compared to time-varying isoprene flux measurements at 9 select sites, the model authentically captures the observed variability in the 30 min average diurnal cycle (R2= 64–96% and simulates the flux magnitude to within a factor of 2. The control run yields a global isoprene source strength of 451 Tg C yr-1 that increases by 30% in the artificial absence of plant water stress and by 55% for potential natural vegetation.

  11. Exploring synergies between climate and air quality policies using long-term global and regional emission scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Braspenning Radu, Olivia; van den Berg, Maarten; Klimont, Zbigniew; Deetman, Sebastiaan; Janssens-Maenhout, Greet; Muntean, Marilena; Heyes, Chris; Dentener, Frank; van Vuuren, Detlef P.

    2016-01-01

    Abstract In this paper, we present ten scenarios developed using the IMAGE2.4 framework (Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment) to explore how different assumptions on future climate and air pollution policies influence emissions of greenhouse gases and air pollutants. These scenarios de

  12. Recent trends in global greenhouse gas emissions: regional trends 1970-2000 and spatial distribution of key sources in 2000

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Olivier, J.G.J.; Aardenne, van J.A.; Dentener, F.; Pagliari, V.; Ganzeveld, L.N.; Peters, J.A.H.W.

    2005-01-01

    In 2004, the Joint Research Centre (JRC) of the European Commission, the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (MNP) and the Max Plank Institute for Chemistry (MPIC) started a project to create fast (bi-)annual updates of the EDGAR global emission inventory system, based on the more detailed p

  13. Exploring synergies between climate and air quality policies using long-term global and regional emission scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Braspenning Radu, Olivia; van den Berg, Maarten; Klimont, Zbigniew; Deetman, Sebastiaan; Janssens-Maenhout, Greet; Muntean, Marilena; Heyes, Chris; Dentener, Frank; van Vuuren, Detlef P.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/11522016X

    2016-01-01

    Abstract In this paper, we present ten scenarios developed using the IMAGE2.4 framework (Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment) to explore how different assumptions on future climate and air pollution policies influence emissions of greenhouse gases and air pollutants. These scenarios de

  14. Global biogenic volatile organic compound emissions in the ORCHIDEE and MEGAN models and sensitivity to key parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Messina, Palmira; Lathière, Juliette; Sindelarova, Katerina; Vuichard, Nicolas; Granier, Claire; Ghattas, Josefine; Cozic, Anne; Hauglustaine, Didier A.

    2016-11-01

    A new version of the biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) emission scheme has been developed in the global vegetation model ORCHIDEE (Organizing Carbon and Hydrology in Dynamic EcosystEm), which includes an extended list of biogenic emitted compounds, updated emission factors (EFs), a dependency on light for almost all compounds and a multi-layer radiation scheme. Over the 2000-2009 period, using this model, we estimate mean global emissions of 465 Tg C yr-1 for isoprene, 107.5 Tg C yr-1 for monoterpenes, 38 Tg C yr-1 for methanol, 25 Tg C yr-1 for acetone and 24 Tg C yr-1 for sesquiterpenes. The model results are compared to state-of-the-art emission budgets, showing that the ORCHIDEE emissions are within the range of published estimates. ORCHIDEE BVOC emissions are compared to the estimates of the Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGAN), which is largely used throughout the biogenic emissions and atmospheric chemistry community. Our results show that global emission budgets of the two models are, in general, in good agreement. ORCHIDEE emissions are 8 % higher for isoprene, 8 % lower for methanol, 17 % higher for acetone, 18 % higher for monoterpenes and 39 % higher for sesquiterpenes, compared to the MEGAN estimates. At the regional scale, the largest differences between ORCHIDEE and MEGAN are highlighted for isoprene in northern temperate regions, where ORCHIDEE emissions are higher by 21 Tg C yr-1, and for monoterpenes, where they are higher by 4.4 and 10.2 Tg C yr-1 in northern and southern tropical regions compared to MEGAN. The geographical differences between the two models are mainly associated with different EF and plant functional type (PFT) distributions, while differences in the seasonal cycle are mostly driven by differences in the leaf area index (LAI). Sensitivity tests are carried out for both models to explore the response to key variables or parameters such as LAI and light-dependent fraction (LDF). The ORCHIDEE and

  15. Global Air Quality Predictions of Particulate Matter in the Middle East and Sensitivity to Future Emissions Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Couzo, E. A.; Holmes, C. D.; Paltsev, S.; Alawad, A.; Selin, N. E.

    2014-12-01

    We examine the influence of natural and anthropogenic drivers of future PM in the Middle East region using two future emissions scenarios to drive the GEOS-Chem atmospheric chemistry model. The Arabian Peninsula is a major source of windblown dust as well as anthropogenic aerosols. Future emissions - driven jointly and individually by climate change and anthropogenic emissions from this rapidly growing region - will play an important role in both climate forcing and human health impacts from particulate matter. We use two scenarios to compare their climate and air quality implications. First, we use the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) for four radiative forcing cases. Second, we develop a consistent future greenhouse gas and conventional pollutant emission inventory using the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model, which is a general equilibrium model of the global economy that calculates how economic growth and anthropogenic emissions change as a result of policies and other stressors. With EPPA, we examine three emissions cases, a business-as-usual case and two stabilization cases leading to anthropogenic radiative forcings of 3.7 W/m2 and 4.5 W/m2. We use these scenarios to drive GEOS-Chem for present and future climate, assessing changes in chemical composition of aerosol and drivers, both natural and anthropogenic, out to 2050. We find that projected anthropogenic emissions are strong determinants of future particulate matter air quality in the Middle East region.

  16. Global market integration increases likelihood that a future African Green Revolution could increase crop land use and CO2 emissions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hertel, Thomas W; Ramankutty, Navin; Baldos, Uris Lantz C

    2014-09-23

    There has been a resurgence of interest in the impacts of agricultural productivity on land use and the environment. At the center of this debate is the assertion that agricultural innovation is land sparing. However, numerous case studies and global empirical studies have found little evidence of higher yields being accompanied by reduced area. We find that these studies overlook two crucial factors: estimation of a true counterfactual scenario and a tendency to adopt a regional, rather than a global, perspective. This paper introduces a general framework for analyzing the impacts of regional and global innovation on long run crop output, prices, land rents, land use, and associated CO2 emissions. In so doing, it facilitates a reconciliation of the apparently conflicting views of the impacts of agricultural productivity growth on global land use and environmental quality. Our historical analysis demonstrates that the Green Revolution in Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East was unambiguously land and emissions sparing, compared with a counterfactual world without these innovations. In contrast, we find that the environmental impacts of a prospective African Green Revolution are potentially ambiguous. We trace these divergent outcomes to relative differences between the innovating region and the rest of the world in yields, emissions efficiencies, cropland supply response, and intensification potential. Globalization of agriculture raises the potential for adverse environmental consequences. However, if sustained for several decades, an African Green Revolution will eventually become land sparing.

  17. Methane emissions from floodplains in the Amazon Basin: challenges in developing a process-based model for global applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ringeval, B.; Houweling, S.; van Bodegom, P. M.; Spahni, R.; van Beek, R.; Joos, F.; Röckmann, T.

    2014-03-01

    Tropical wetlands are estimated to represent about 50% of the natural wetland methane (CH4) emissions and explain a large fraction of the observed CH4 variability on timescales ranging from glacial-interglacial cycles to the currently observed year-to-year variability. Despite their importance, however, tropical wetlands are poorly represented in global models aiming to predict global CH4 emissions. This publication documents a first step in the development of a process-based model of CH4 emissions from tropical floodplains for global applications. For this purpose, the LPX-Bern Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (LPX hereafter) was slightly modified to represent floodplain hydrology, vegetation and associated CH4 emissions. The extent of tropical floodplains was prescribed using output from the spatially explicit hydrology model PCR-GLOBWB. We introduced new plant functional types (PFTs) that explicitly represent floodplain vegetation. The PFT parameterizations were evaluated against available remote-sensing data sets (GLC2000 land cover and MODIS Net Primary Productivity). Simulated CH4 flux densities were evaluated against field observations and regional flux inventories. Simulated CH4 emissions at Amazon Basin scale were compared to model simulations performed in the WETCHIMP intercomparison project. We found that LPX reproduces the average magnitude of observed net CH4 flux densities for the Amazon Basin. However, the model does not reproduce the variability between sites or between years within a site. Unfortunately, site information is too limited to attest or disprove some model features. At the Amazon Basin scale, our results underline the large uncertainty in the magnitude of wetland CH4 emissions. Sensitivity analyses gave insights into the main drivers of floodplain CH4 emission and their associated uncertainties. In particular, uncertainties in floodplain extent (i.e., difference between GLC2000 and PCR-GLOBWB output) modulate the simulated emissions by a

  18. Regional and Global Climate Response to Anthropogenic SO2 Emissions from China in Three Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kasoar, M.; Voulgarakis, Apostolos; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Shindell, Drew T.; Bellouin, Nicholas; Collins, William J.; Faluvegi, Greg; Tsigaridis, Kostas

    2016-01-01

    We use the HadGEM3-GA4, CESM1, and GISS ModelE2 climate models to investigate the global and regional aerosol burden, radiative flux, and surface temperature responses to removing anthropogenic sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions from China. We find that the models differ by up to a factor of 6 in the simulated change in aerosol optical depth (AOD) and shortwave radiative flux over China that results from reduced sulfate aerosol, leading to a large range of magnitudes in the regional and global temperature responses. Two of the three models simulate a near-ubiquitous hemispheric warming due to the regional SO2 removal, with similarities in the local and remote pattern of response, but overall with a substantially different magnitude. The third model simulates almost no significant temperature response. We attribute the discrepancies in the response to a combination of substantial differences in the chemical conversion of SO2 to sulfate, translation of sulfate mass into AOD, cloud radiative interactions, and differences in the radiative forcing efficiency of sulfate aerosol in the models. The model with the strongest response (HadGEM3-GA4) compares best with observations of AOD regionally, however the other two models compare similarly (albeit poorly) and still disagree substantially in their simulated climate response, indicating that total AOD observations are far from sufficient to determine which model response is more plausible. Our results highlight that there remains a large uncertainty in the representation of both aerosol chemistry as well as direct and indirect aerosol radiative effects in current climate models, and reinforces that caution must be applied when interpreting the results of modelling studies of aerosol influences on climate. Model studies that implicate aerosols in climate responses should ideally explore a range of radiative forcing strengths representative of this uncertainty, in addition to thoroughly evaluating the models used against

  19. Regional and Global Climate Response to Anthropogenic SO2 Emissions from China in Three Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kasoar, M.; Voulgarakis, Apostolos; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Shindell, Drew T.; Bellouin, Nicholas; Collins, William J.; Faluvegi, Greg; Tsigaridis, Kostas

    2016-01-01

    We use the HadGEM3-GA4, CESM1, and GISS ModelE2 climate models to investigate the global and regional aerosol burden, radiative flux, and surface temperature responses to removing anthropogenic sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions from China. We find that the models differ by up to a factor of 6 in the simulated change in aerosol optical depth (AOD) and shortwave radiative flux over China that results from reduced sulfate aerosol, leading to a large range of magnitudes in the regional and global temperature responses. Two of the three models simulate a near-ubiquitous hemispheric warming due to the regional SO2 removal, with similarities in the local and remote pattern of response, but overall with a substantially different magnitude. The third model simulates almost no significant temperature response. We attribute the discrepancies in the response to a combination of substantial differences in the chemical conversion of SO2 to sulfate, translation of sulfate mass into AOD, cloud radiative interactions, and differences in the radiative forcing efficiency of sulfate aerosol in the models. The model with the strongest response (HadGEM3-GA4) compares best with observations of AOD regionally, however the other two models compare similarly (albeit poorly) and still disagree substantially in their simulated climate response, indicating that total AOD observations are far from sufficient to determine which model response is more plausible. Our results highlight that there remains a large uncertainty in the representation of both aerosol chemistry as well as direct and indirect aerosol radiative effects in current climate models, and reinforces that caution must be applied when interpreting the results of modelling studies of aerosol influences on climate. Model studies that implicate aerosols in climate responses should ideally explore a range of radiative forcing strengths representative of this uncertainty, in addition to thoroughly evaluating the models used against

  20. Regional and global temperature response to anthropogenic SO2 emissions from China in three climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kasoar, Matthew; Voulgarakis, Apostolos; Lamarque, Jean-François; Shindell, Drew T.; Bellouin, Nicolas; Collins, William J.; Faluvegi, Greg; Tsigaridis, Kostas

    2016-08-01

    We use the HadGEM3-GA4, CESM1, and GISS ModelE2 climate models to investigate the global and regional aerosol burden, radiative flux, and surface temperature responses to removing anthropogenic sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions from China. We find that the models differ by up to a factor of 6 in the simulated change in aerosol optical depth (AOD) and shortwave radiative flux over China that results from reduced sulfate aerosol, leading to a large range of magnitudes in the regional and global temperature responses. Two of the three models simulate a near-ubiquitous hemispheric warming due to the regional SO2 removal, with similarities in the local and remote pattern of response, but overall with a substantially different magnitude. The third model simulates almost no significant temperature response. We attribute the discrepancies in the response to a combination of substantial differences in the chemical conversion of SO2 to sulfate, translation of sulfate mass into AOD, cloud radiative interactions, and differences in the radiative forcing efficiency of sulfate aerosol in the models. The model with the strongest response (HadGEM3-GA4) compares best with observations of AOD regionally, however the other two models compare similarly (albeit poorly) and still disagree substantially in their simulated climate response, indicating that total AOD observations are far from sufficient to determine which model response is more plausible. Our results highlight that there remains a large uncertainty in the representation of both aerosol chemistry as well as direct and indirect aerosol radiative effects in current climate models, and reinforces that caution must be applied when interpreting the results of modelling studies of aerosol influences on climate. Model studies that implicate aerosols in climate responses should ideally explore a range of radiative forcing strengths representative of this uncertainty, in addition to thoroughly evaluating the models used against

  1. Comparisons of Monthly Mean 10 M Wind Speeds from Satellites and NWP Products Over the Global Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-10-09

    Resolution QSCAT SSM/I NOGAPS ERA-40 NCEP Sea Winds instrument on the Quick Scatterometer Special Sensor Microwave/Imager Navy Operational...measurements with 25-point smoothing as described earlier. [25] Within the latitudes spanning the Arctic and Antarctic , no ice mask is applied in order to...ET AL.: 10 M WINDS OVER THE GLOBAL OCEAN D16109 egies that blend two or more of these products to produce improved forcing fields. [53

  2. Atmospheric lifetime of caesium-137 as an estimate of aerosol lifetime -quantified from global measurements in the months after the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear accident

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iren Kristiansen, Nina; Stohl, Andreas; Wotawa, Gerhard

    2013-04-01

    Radionuclides like caesium-137 (137Cs) can be emitted to the atmosphere in great quantities during nuclear accidents and are of significant health impact. A global set of radionuclide measurements collected over several months after the accidental release from the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant in March 2011 has been used to estimate the atmospheric lifetime of 137Cs. Lifetime is here defined as the e-folding time scale (the time interval in which the exponential decay of the 137Cs quantity has decreased by factor of e). The estimated atmospheric lifetime of 137Cs can also be used as an estimate of the lifetime of aerosols in the atmosphere. This is based on the fact that 137Cs attaches to the ambient accumulation-mode (AM) aerosols and trace their fate in the atmosphere. The 137Cs "tags" the AM aerosols and both the 137Cs and AM aerosols are removed simultaneously from the atmosphere by scavenging within clouds, precipitation and dry deposition. The 137Cs emitted from Fukushima attached mainly to sulphate aerosols in the size range 0.1-2 μm diameter. Measured 137Cs activity concentrations from several stations spread mostly over the Northern Hemisphere were evaluated, and the decrease in activity concentrations over time (after correction for radioactive decay) reflects the removal of aerosols by wet and dry deposition. Corrections for air mass transport were made using measurements of the noble gas xenon-133 (133Xe) which was also released during the accident. This noble gas does not attach to the aerosols and was thus used as a passive tracer of air mass transport. The atmospheric lifetime of 137Cs was estimated to 10.0-13.9 days during April and May 2011. This represents the atmospheric lifetime of a "background" AM aerosol well mixed in the extratropical northern hemisphere troposphere. It is expected that the lifetime of this vertically mixed background aerosol is longer than the lifetime of fresh AM aerosols directly emitted from surface sources

  3. Analysis of particulate emissions from tropical biomass burning using a global aerosol model and long-term surface observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reddington, Carly L.; Spracklen, Dominick V.; Artaxo, Paulo; Ridley, David A.; Rizzo, Luciana V.; Arana, Andrea

    2016-09-01

    We use the GLOMAP global aerosol model evaluated against observations of surface particulate matter (PM2.5) and aerosol optical depth (AOD) to better understand the impacts of biomass burning on tropical aerosol over the period 2003 to 2011. Previous studies report a large underestimation of AOD over regions impacted by tropical biomass burning, scaling particulate emissions from fire by up to a factor of 6 to enable the models to simulate observed AOD. To explore the uncertainty in emissions we use three satellite-derived fire emission datasets (GFED3, GFAS1 and FINN1). In these datasets the tropics account for 66-84 % of global particulate emissions from fire. With all emission datasets GLOMAP underestimates dry season PM2.5 concentrations in regions of high fire activity in South America and underestimates AOD over South America, Africa and Southeast Asia. When we assume an upper estimate of aerosol hygroscopicity, underestimation of AOD over tropical regions impacted by biomass burning is reduced relative to previous studies. Where coincident observations of surface PM2.5 and AOD are available we find a greater model underestimation of AOD than PM2.5, even when we assume an upper estimate of aerosol hygroscopicity. Increasing particulate emissions to improve simulation of AOD can therefore lead to overestimation of surface PM2.5 concentrations. We find that scaling FINN1 emissions by a factor of 1.5 prevents underestimation of AOD and surface PM2.5 in most tropical locations except Africa. GFAS1 requires emission scaling factor of 3.4 in most locations with the exception of equatorial Asia where a scaling factor of 1.5 is adequate. Scaling GFED3 emissions by a factor of 1.5 is sufficient in active deforestation regions of South America and equatorial Asia, but a larger scaling factor is required elsewhere. The model with GFED3 emissions poorly simulates observed seasonal variability in surface PM2.5 and AOD in regions where small fires dominate, providing

  4. Sector trends and driving forces of global energy use and greenhouse gas emissions: focus in industry and buildings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Price, Lynn; Worrell, Ernst; Khrushch, Marta

    1999-09-01

    Disaggregation of sectoral energy use and greenhouse gas emissions trends reveals striking differences between sectors and regions of the world. Understanding key driving forces in the energy end-use sectors provides insights for development of projections of future greenhouse gas emissions. This report examines global and regional historical trends in energy use and carbon emissions in the industrial, buildings, transport, and agriculture sectors, with a more detailed focus on industry and buildings. Activity and economic drivers as well as trends in energy and carbon intensity are evaluated. The authors show that macro-economic indicators, such as GDP, are insufficient for comprehending trends and driving forces at the sectoral level. These indicators need to be supplemented with sector-specific information for a more complete understanding of future energy use and greenhouse gas emissions.

  5. Principal component analysis of global warming with respect to CO{sub 2} emission in Nigeria: an exploratory study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Igwenagu, C.M. [Enugu State University of Science and Technology (Nigeria). Dept. of Industrial Mathematics, Applied Statistics and Demography

    2011-07-01

    This study has examined the position of Nigeria in relation to carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) emission in readiness for emission trading as proposed in the Kyoto protocol as a measure of reducing global warming. It was discovered that Nigeria emits only 0.4% of the world's total CO{sub 2} emission indicating that they will be possible sellers of emission as contained in the Kyoto protocol. Fifty countries were selected for the analysis and some possible correlates of CO{sub 2} were considered. Correlation analysis and principal component analysis revealed that gross domestic product and industrial output accounted for 93% of the total variation. Based on this, a very low economic activity is being experienced in the country.

  6. Global X-ray emission and central properties of early type galaxies

    CERN Document Server

    Pellegrini, S

    1999-01-01

    Hubble Space Telescope observations revealed that the central surface brightness profiles of early type galaxies can be divided into two types: "core" profiles and featureless power law profiles. On the basis of this and previous results, early type galaxies have been grouped into two families: coreless galaxies, which are also rapidly rotating, nearly isotropic spheroids, and with disky isophotes, and core galaxies, which are slowly rotating and boxy-distorted. Here I investigate the relationship between global X-ray emission and shape of the inner surface brightness profile, for a sample of 59 early type galaxies. I find a clear dicothomy also in the X-ray properties, in the sense that core galaxies span the whole observed range of Lx values, while power law galaxies are confined below log Lx (erg/s)=41. Moreover, the relation between Lx and the shape of the central profile is the strongest among the relations of Lx with the basic properties characterizing the two families of early type galaxies. So, a glob...

  7. Presentation of an Innovative Zero-Emission Cycle for Mitigating the Global Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Philippe Mathieu

    1998-06-01

    Full Text Available In the spectrum of possible options to cope with the global climate change, a novel technology based on the zero CO2 emission MATIANT cycle (contraction of the names of the 2 designers : MATHIEU and IANTOVSKI is presented here. This latter is basically a regenerative gas cycle operating on CO2 as the working fluid and using O2 as the fuel oxidiser in the combustion chambers. The cycle uses the highest temperatures and pressures compatible with the most advanced materials in the steam and gas turbines. In addition, reheat and staged compression with intercooling are used. Therefore the optimized cycle efficiency rises up to around 45% when operating on natural gas. A big asset of the system is its ability to remove totally the CO2 produced in the combustion process in liquid or supercritical state and at high pressure, making it ready for transportation, for reuse or for final storage. It avoids the cost in performance (decrease of efficiency and power output and in money of the CO2 capture by a MEA scrubber. The assets and drawbacks of the cycle are mentioned. The technical issues for the design of a prototype plant are examined.

  8. N2O emissions from the global agricultural nitrogen cycle – current state and future scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Lotze-Campen

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Reactive nitrogen (Nr is not only an important nutrient for plant growth, thereby safeguarding human alimentation, but it also heavily disturbs natural systems. To mitigate air, land, aquatic, and atmospheric pollution caused by the excessive availability of Nr, it is crucial to understand the long-term development of the global agricultural Nr cycle. For our analysis, we combine a material flow model with a land-use optimization model. In a first step we estimate the state of the Nr cycle in 1995. In a second step we create four scenarios for the 21st century in line with the SRES storylines. Our results indicate that in 1995 only half of the Nr applied to croplands was incorporated into plant biomass. Moreover, less than 10 per cent of all Nr in cropland plant biomass and grazed pasture was consumed by humans. In our scenarios a strong surge of the Nr cycle occurs in the first half of the 21st century, even in the environmentally oriented scenarios. Nitrous oxide (N2O emissions rise from 3 Tg N2O-N in 1995 to 7–9 in 2045 and 5–12 Tg in 2095. Reinforced Nr pollution mitigation efforts are therefore required.

  9. The Impact of Individual Anthropogenic Emissions Sectors on the Global Burden of Human Mortality due to Ambient Air Pollution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silva, Raquel A; Adelman, Zachariah; Fry, Meridith M; West, J Jason

    2016-11-01

    Exposure to ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) can cause adverse health effects, including premature mortality due to cardiopulmonary diseases and lung cancer. Recent studies quantify global air pollution mortality but not the contribution of different emissions sectors, or they focus on a specific sector. We estimated the global mortality burden of anthropogenic ozone and PM2.5, and the impact of five emissions sectors, using a global chemical transport model at a finer horizontal resolution (0.67° × 0.5°) than previous studies. We performed simulations for 2005 using the Model for Ozone and Related Chemical Tracers, version 4 (MOZART-4), zeroing out all anthropogenic emissions and emissions from specific sectors (All Transportation, Land Transportation, Energy, Industry, and Residential and Commercial). We estimated premature mortality using a log-linear concentration-response function for ozone and an integrated exposure-response model for PM2.5. We estimated 2.23 (95% CI: 1.04, 3.33) million deaths/year related to anthropogenic PM2.5, with the highest mortality in East Asia (48%). The Residential and Commercial sector had the greatest impact globally-675 (95% CI: 428, 899) thousand deaths/year-and in most regions. Land Transportation dominated in North America (32% of total anthropogenic PM2.5 mortality), and it had nearly the same impact (24%) as Residential and Commercial (27%) in Europe. Anthropogenic ozone was associated with 493 (95% CI: 122, 989) thousand deaths/year, with the Land Transportation sector having the greatest impact globally (16%). The contributions of emissions sectors to ambient air pollution-related mortality differ among regions, suggesting region-specific air pollution control strategies. Global sector-specific actions targeting Land Transportation (ozone) and Residential and Commercial (PM2.5) sectors would particularly benefit human health. Citation: Silva RA, Adelman Z, Fry MM, West JJ. 2016. The impact of individual

  10. Impact of intracoronary injection of mononuclear bone marrow cells in acute myocardial infarction on left ventricular perfusion and function: a 6-month follow-up gated {sup 99m}Tc-MIBI single-photon emission computed tomography study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lipiec, Piotr [Medical University of Lodz, 2nd Department of Cardiology, Lodz (Poland); Medical University of Lodz, 2nd Department of Cardiology, Bieganski Hospital, Lodz (Poland); Krzeminska-Pakula, Maria; Plewka, Michal; Kasprzak, Jaroslaw D. [Medical University of Lodz, 2nd Department of Cardiology, Lodz (Poland); Kusmierek, Jacek; Plachcinska, Anna; Szuminski, Remigiusz [Medical University of Lodz, Department of Nuclear Medicine, Lodz (Poland); Robak, Tadeusz; Korycka, Anna [Medical University of Lodz, Department of Hematology, Lodz (Poland)

    2009-04-15

    We investigated the impact of intracoronary injection of autologous mononuclear bone marrow cells (BMC) in patients with acute ST elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) on left ventricular volumes, global and regional systolic function and myocardial perfusion. The study included 39 patients with first anterior STEMI treated successfully with primary percutaneous coronary intervention. They were randomly assigned to the treatment group or the control group in a 2:1 ratio. The patients underwent baseline gated single-photon emission computed tomography (G-SPECT) 3-10 days after STEMI with quantitative and qualitative analysis of left ventricular perfusion and systolic function. On the following day, patients from the BMC treatment group were subjected to bone marrow aspiration, mononuclear BMC isolation and intracoronary injection. No placebo procedure was performed in the control group. G-SPECT was repeated 6 months after STEMI. Baseline and follow-up G-SPECT studies were available for 36 patients. At 6 months in the BMC group we observed a significantly enhanced improvement in the mean extent of the perfusion defect, the left ventricular perfusion score index, the infarct area perfusion score and the infarct area wall motion score index compared to the control group (p=0.01-0.04). However, the changes in left ventricular volume, ejection fraction and the left ventricular wall motion score index as well as the relative changes in the infarct area wall motion score index did not differ significantly between the groups. Intracoronary injection of autologous mononuclear BMC in patients with STEMI improves myocardial perfusion at 6 months. The benefit in infarct area systolic function is less pronounced and there is no apparent improvement of global left ventricular systolic function. (orig.)

  11. Atmospheric three-dimensional inverse modeling of regional industrial emissions and global oceanic uptake of carbon tetrachloride

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    X. Xiao

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available Carbon tetrachloride (CCl4 has substantial stratospheric ozone depletion potential and its consumption is controlled under the Montreal Protocol and its amendments. We implement a Kalman filter using atmospheric CC14 measurements and a 3-dimensional chemical transport model to estimate the interannual regional industrial emissions and seasonal global oceanic uptake of CCl4 for the period of 1996–2004. The Model of Atmospheric Transport and Chemistry (MATCH, driven by offline National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP reanalysis meteorological fields, is used to simulate CCl4 mole fractions and calculate their sensitivities to regional sources and sinks using a finite difference approach. High frequency observations from the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE and NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL and low frequency flask observations are together used to constrain the source and sink magnitudes, estimated as factors that multiply the a priori fluxes. Although industry data imply that the global industrial emissions were substantially declining with large interannual variations, the optimized results show only small interannual variations and a small decreasing trend. The global surface CCl4 mole fractions were declining in this period because the CCl4 oceanic and stratospheric sinks exceeded the industrial emissions. Compared to the a priori values, the inversion results indicate substantial increases in industrial emissions originating from the South Asian/Indian and Southeast Asian regions, and significant decreases in emissions from the European and North American regions.

  12. The effect of harmonized emissions on aerosol properties in global models – an AeroCom experiment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Textor

    2007-08-01

    Full Text Available The effects of unified aerosol sources on global aerosol fields simulated by different models are examined in this paper. We compare results from two AeroCom experiments, one with different (ExpA and one with unified emissions, injection heights, and particle sizes at the source (ExpB. Surprisingly, harmonization of aerosol sources has only a small impact on the simulated inter-model diversity of the global aerosol burden, and consequently global optical properties, as the results are largely controlled by model-specific transport, removal, chemistry (leading to the formation of secondary aerosols and parameterizations of aerosol microphysics (e.g., the split between deposition pathways and to a lesser extent by the spatial and temporal distributions of the (precursor emissions.

    The burdens of black carbon and especially sea salt become more coherent in ExpB only, because the large ExpA diversities for these two species were caused by a few outliers. The experiment also showed that despite prescribing emission fluxes and size distributions, ambiguities in the implementation in individual models can lead to substantial differences.

    These results indicate the need for a better understanding of aerosol life cycles at process level (including spatial dispersal and interaction with meteorological parameters in order to obtain more reliable results from global aerosol simulations. This is particularly important as such model results are used to assess the consequences of specific air pollution abatement strategies.

  13. Using box models to calculate emissions from long-term observations of the background global atmosphere for nitrous oxide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elkins, J. W.; Dutton, G. S.; Nance, J. D.; Hall, B. D.; Mondeel, D. J.; Butler, J. H.; Dlugokencky, E. J.; Wofsy, S. C.

    2013-12-01

    Atmospheric nitrous oxide (N2O) is an important ozone-depleting gas that continues to rise in concentration even as CFC emissions have virtually ceased. It is also a potent greenhouse gas with a global warming potential of 298 times that of carbon dioxide with 100 years time horizon. NOAA has been monitoring background concentrations of N2O from weekly flask samples since 1977, starting with five remote stations over a broad latitudinal coverage from Pt. Barrow, Alaska to South Pole. This network has expanded to thirteen flask sampling sites and six in situ instrument sites. We have combined data from the collocated, ground-based sites using three different independent instruments all linked to the WMO N2O calibration scale, primarily to assist in quantifying the global burden of atmospheric N2O for international assessments of the state of the science in climate and stratospheric ozone depletion. The growth rate of atmospheric N2O has been essentially constant at 0.78×0.01(3s) parts per billion (ppb) per year over this period, but with important deviations related to ENSO, transport, and changes in patterns of emissions. We will use top down box models to generate emissions and examine the budget of global atmospheric N2O. Global history of atmospheric N2O (in ppb) from the NOAA GMD background sites.

  14. Influence of updating global emission inventory of black carbon on evaluation of the climate and health impact

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Rong; Tao, Shu; Balkanski, Yves; Ciais, Philippe

    2013-04-01

    Black carbon (BC) is an air component of particular concern in terms of air quality and climate change. Black carbon emissions are often estimated based on the fuel data and emission factors. However, large variations in emission factors reported in the literature have led to a high uncertainty in previous inventories. Here, we develop a new global 0.1°×0.1° BC emission inventory for 2007 with full uncertainty analysis based on updated source and emission factor databases. Two versions of LMDz-OR-INCA models, named as INCA and INCA-zA, are run to evaluate the new emission inventory. INCA is built up based on a regular grid system with a resolution of 1.27° in latitude and 2.50° in longitude, while INCA-zA is specially zoomed to 0.51°×0.66° (latitude×longitude) in Asia. By checking against field observations, we compare our inventory with ACCMIP, which is used by IPCC in the 5th assessment report, and also evaluate the influence of model resolutions. With the newly calculated BC air concentrations and the nested model, we estimate the direct radiative forcing of BC and the premature death and mortality rate induced by BC exposure with Asia emphasized. Global BC direct radiative forcing at TOA is estimated to be 0.41 W/m2 (0.2 - 0.8 as inter-quartile range), which is 17% higher than that derived from the inventory adopted by IPCC-AR5 (0.34 W/m2). The estimated premature deaths induced by inhalation exposure to anthropogenic BC (0.36 million in 2007) and the percentage of high risk population are higher than those previously estimated. Ninety percents of the global total anthropogenic PD occur in Asia with 0.18 and 0.08 million deaths in China and India, respectively.

  15. The Impact of Individual Anthropogenic Emissions Sectors on the Global Burden of Human Mortality due to Ambient Air Pollution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silva, Raquel A.; Adelman, Zachariah; Fry, Meridith M.; West, J. Jason

    2016-01-01

    Background: Exposure to ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) can cause adverse health effects, including premature mortality due to cardiopulmonary diseases and lung cancer. Recent studies quantify global air pollution mortality but not the contribution of different emissions sectors, or they focus on a specific sector. Objectives: We estimated the global mortality burden of anthropogenic ozone and PM2.5, and the impact of five emissions sectors, using a global chemical transport model at a finer horizontal resolution (0.67° × 0.5°) than previous studies. Methods: We performed simulations for 2005 using the Model for Ozone and Related Chemical Tracers, version 4 (MOZART-4), zeroing out all anthropogenic emissions and emissions from specific sectors (All Transportation, Land Transportation, Energy, Industry, and Residential and Commercial). We estimated premature mortality using a log-linear concentration–response function for ozone and an integrated exposure–response model for PM2.5. Results: We estimated 2.23 (95% CI: 1.04, 3.33) million deaths/year related to anthropogenic PM2.5, with the highest mortality in East Asia (48%). The Residential and Commercial sector had the greatest impact globally—675 (95% CI: 428, 899) thousand deaths/year—and in most regions. Land Transportation dominated in North America (32% of total anthropogenic PM2.5 mortality), and it had nearly the same impact (24%) as Residential and Commercial (27%) in Europe. Anthropogenic ozone was associated with 493 (95% CI: 122, 989) thousand deaths/year, with the Land Transportation sector having the greatest impact globally (16%). Conclusions: The contributions of emissions sectors to ambient air pollution–related mortality differ among regions, suggesting region-specific air pollution control strategies. Global sector-specific actions targeting Land Transportation (ozone) and Residential and Commercial (PM2.5) sectors would particularly benefit human health. Citation: Silva RA

  16. Optimal Estimation of Sulfuryl Fluoride Emissions on Regional and Global Scales Using Advanced 3D Inverse Modeling and AGAGE Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gressent, A.; Muhle, J.; Rigby, M. L.; Lunt, M. F.; Ganesan, A.; Prinn, R. G.; Krummel, P. B.; Fraser, P. J.; Steele, P.; Weiss, R. F.; Harth, C. M.; O'Doherty, S.; Young, D.; Park, S.; Li, S.; Yao, B.; Reimann, S.; Vollmer, M. K.; Maione, M.; Arduini, I.; Lunder, C. R.

    2016-12-01

    Sulfuryl fluoride (SO2F2) is used increasingly as a fumigant to replace methyl bromide (CH3Br), which was regulated under the Montreal Protocol (1986). Mühle et al., J. Geophys. Res., 2009) showed that SO2F2 had been accumulating in the global atmosphere with a growth rate of 5±1% per year from 1978 to 2007. They also determined, using the 2D AGAGE box model, that SO2F2 has a total atmospheric lifetime of 36±11 years mainly driven by the oceanic uptake. In addition, the global warming potential of SO2F2 has been estimated to be ≈4780 for a 100-year time horizon (Papadimitriou et al., J. Phys. Chem., 2008), which is similar to the CFC-11 (CCl3F) GWP. Thus it is a potent greenhouse gas and its emissions are expected to continue to increase in the future. Here we report the first estimations of the SO2F2 emissions and its ocean sink from January 2006 to the end of 2015 on both the global scale using a 3D Eulerian chemical transport model (MOZART-4) solving a Main Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) inversion, and on the regional scale using a 3D Lagrangian dispersion model (NAME) via the reversible-jump trans-dimensional MCMC approach (Lunt et al., Geosci. Model Dev., 2016). The mole fractions calculated on the global scale are used as boundary conditions for emission calculations over the NAME regions in North America, Europe, East Asia and Australia. For this 10-year inversion we use observations from the AGAGE (Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment) starting with six stations in 2006, which are La Jolla (California), Mace Head (Ireland), Cape Grim (Australia), Ragged Point (Barbados), Trinidad Head (California) and Cape Matatula (Samoa). We then add observations from Gosan (South Korea) in 2007, Jungfraujoch (Switzerland) in 2008, Shandiangzi (China) and Ny-Alesund (Norway) in 2010, and Monte Cimone (Italy) in 2011, reducing the uncertainty associated with the regions located close to these stations. Results are compared to (i) the total global SO2F2 emissions

  17. Impacts of global emissions of CO, NO x , and CH4 on China tropospheric hydroxyl free radicals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, Mingfeng; Lin, Yunping; Fan, Xinqiang; Peng, Li; Zhao, Chunsheng

    2012-07-01

    Using the global chemistry and transport model MOZART, the simulated distributions of tropospheric hydroxyl free radicals (OH) over China and its sensitivities to global emissions of carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxide (NO x ), and methane (CH4) were investigated in this study. Due to various distributions of OH sources and sinks, the concentrations of tropospheric OH in east China are much greater than in west China. The contribution of NO + perhydroxyl radical (HO2) reaction to OH production in east China is more pronounced than that in west China, and because of the higher reaction activity of non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs), the contributions to OH loss by NMVOCs exceed those of CO and take the dominant position in summer. The results of the sensitivity runs show a significant increase of tropospheric OH in east China from 1990 to 2000, and the trend continues. The positive effect of double emissions of NO x on OH is partly offset by the contrary effect of increased CO and CH4 emissions: the double emissions of NO x will cause an increase of OH of 18.1%-30.1%, while the increases of CO and CH4 will cause a decrease of OH of 12.2%-20.8% and 0.3%-3.0%, respectively. In turn, the lifetimes of CH4, CO, and NO x will increase by 0.3%-3.1% with regard to double emissions of CH4, 13.9%-26.3% to double emissions of CO and decrease by 15.3%-23.2% to double emissions of NO x .

  18. Global Partitioning of NOx Sources Using Satellite Observations: Relative Roles of Fossil Fuel Combustion, Biomass Burning and Soil Emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaegle, Lyatt; Steinberger, Linda; Martin, Randall V.; Chance, Kelly

    2005-01-01

    This document contains the following abstract for the paper "Global partitioning of NOx sources using satellite observations: Relative roles of fossil fuel combustion, biomass burning and soil emissions." Satellite observations have been used to provide important new information about emissions of nitrogen oxides. Nitrogen oxides (NOx) are significant in atmospheric chemistry, having a role in ozone air pollution, acid deposition and climate change. We know that human activities have led to a three- to six-fold increase in NOx emissions since pre-industrial times, and that there are three main surface sources of NOx: fuel combustion, large-scale fires, and microbial soil processes. How each of these sources contributes to the total NOx emissions is subject to some doubt, however. The problem is that current NOx emission inventories rely on bottom-up approaches, compiling large quantities of statistical information from diverse sources such as fuel and land use, agricultural data, and estimates of burned areas. This results in inherently large uncertainties. To overcome this, Lyatt Jaegle and colleagues from the University of Washington, USA, used new satellite observations from the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment (GOME) instrument. As the spatial and seasonal distribution of each of the sources of NOx can be clearly mapped from space, the team could provide independent topdown constraints on the individual strengths of NOx sources, and thus help resolve discrepancies in existing inventories. Jaegle's analysis of the satellite observations, presented at the recent Faraday Discussion on "Atmospheric Chemistry", shows that fuel combustion dominates emissions at northern mid-latitudes, while fires are a significant source in the Tropics. Additionally, she discovered a larger than expected role for soil emissions, especially over agricultural regions with heavy fertilizer use. Additional information is included in the original extended abstract.

  19. Global Partitioning of NOx Sources Using Satellite Observations: Relative Roles of Fossil Fuel Combustion, Biomass Burning and Soil Emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaegle, Lyatt; Steinberger, Linda; Martin, Randall V.; Chance, Kelly

    2005-01-01

    This document contains the following abstract for the paper "Global partitioning of NOx sources using satellite observations: Relative roles of fossil fuel combustion, biomass burning and soil emissions." Satellite observations have been used to provide important new information about emissions of nitrogen oxides. Nitrogen oxides (NOx) are significant in atmospheric chemistry, having a role in ozone air pollution, acid deposition and climate change. We know that human activities have led to a three- to six-fold increase in NOx emissions since pre-industrial times, and that there are three main surface sources of NOx: fuel combustion, large-scale fires, and microbial soil processes. How each of these sources contributes to the total NOx emissions is subject to some doubt, however. The problem is that current NOx emission inventories rely on bottom-up approaches, compiling large quantities of statistical information from diverse sources such as fuel and land use, agricultural data, and estimates of burned areas. This results in inherently large uncertainties. To overcome this, Lyatt Jaegle and colleagues from the University of Washington, USA, used new satellite observations from the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment (GOME) instrument. As the spatial and seasonal distribution of each of the sources of NOx can be clearly mapped from space, the team could provide independent topdown constraints on the individual strengths of NOx sources, and thus help resolve discrepancies in existing inventories. Jaegle's analysis of the satellite observations, presented at the recent Faraday Discussion on "Atmospheric Chemistry", shows that fuel combustion dominates emissions at northern mid-latitudes, while fires are a significant source in the Tropics. Additionally, she discovered a larger than expected role for soil emissions, especially over agricultural regions with heavy fertilizer use. Additional information is included in the original extended abstract.

  20. Attribution of changes in global wetland methane emissions from pre-industrial to present using CLM4.5-BGC

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paudel, Rajendra; Mahowald, Natalie M.; Hess, Peter G. M.; Meng, Lei; Riley, William J.

    2016-03-01

    An understanding of potential factors controlling methane emissions from natural wetlands is important to accurately project future atmospheric methane concentrations. Here, we examine the relative contributions of climatic and environmental factors, such as precipitation, temperature, atmospheric CO2 concentration, nitrogen deposition, wetland inundation extent, and land-use and land-cover change, on changes in wetland methane emissions from preindustrial to present day (i.e., 1850-2005). We apply a mechanistic methane biogeochemical model integrated in the Community Land Model version 4.5 (CLM4.5), the land component of the Community Earth System Model. The methane model explicitly simulates methane production, oxidation, ebullition, transport through aerenchyma of plants, and aqueous and gaseous diffusion. We conduct a suite of model simulations from 1850 to 2005, with all changes in environmental factors included, and sensitivity studies isolating each factor. Globally, we estimate that preindustrial methane emissions were higher by 10% than present-day emissions from natural wetlands, with emissions changes from preindustrial to the present of +15%, -41%, and -11% for the high latitudes, temperate regions, and tropics, respectively. The most important change is due to the estimated change in wetland extent, due to the conversion of wetland areas to drylands by humans. This effect alone leads to higher preindustrial global methane fluxes by 33% relative to the present, with the largest change in temperate regions (+80%). These increases were partially offset by lower preindustrial emissions due to lower CO2 levels (10%), shifts in precipitation (7%), lower nitrogen deposition (3%), and changes in land-use and land-cover (2%). Cooler temperatures in the preindustrial regions resulted in our simulations in an increase in global methane emissions of 6% relative to present day. Much of the sensitivity to these perturbations is mediated in the model by changes in

  1. A Full Participation Agreement on Global Emission Reduction through Strategic Investments in R&D

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Uwe Kratzsch

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available If an emission reduction agreement with participation of all players is not enforceable because politicians are too myopic or costs of reducing emissions are too high, strategic investments in research and development (R&D of green technology, for example, sustainable drivetrains, can pave the way for a future treaty. Although no player will rationally reduce emissions on its own, investments in R&D by at least one player can change the strategic situation of negotiations to control emissions: emission abatement costs will decrease so that a treaty with full participation can be achieved in future periods through time consistent sustainable policies.

  2. Global Carbon Emissions in the Coming Decades: The Case of China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Levine, Mark; Levine, Mark D.; Aden, Nathaniel T.

    2008-05-01

    China's annual energy-related carbon emissions surpassed those of the United States in In order to build a more robust understanding of China's energy-related carbon emissions, emissions after 2001? The divergence between actual and forecasted carbon emissions international trade, and central government policies in driving emissions growth. so greatly in error and what drove the rapid growth of China's energy-related carbon this article reviews the role of economic restructuring, urbanization, coal dependence, underscores the rapid changes that have taken place in China's energy system since 2001.

  3. Monthly variations in the atmospheric transmission for cloudless skies as inferred from the correlation of daily global radiation with hours of sunshine for Spain

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Soler, A.

    1986-01-01

    The well known correlation between global radiation and sunshine duration is discussed. The monthly variations of the atmospheric transmission, for cloudless skies for some locations in Spain are discussed. The Spanish solar radiation measurement network is equipped with two types of pyranometers: Kipp and Zonen model CM-5 pyranometers from which hourly values of the global radiation are obtained after evaluating the recorded output, and bimetallic pyranometers of daily rotation. Only the high quality data obtained with Kipp and Zonen pyranometers should be used in scientific study of this nature. However, correlations were also performed for data obtained in locations equipped with SIAP pyranometers because they have been extensively used in research projects where solar radiation data are required, and for making maps of solar radiation.

  4. Methane emissions from floodplains in the Amazon Basin: towards a process-based model for global applications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Ringeval

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Tropical wetlands are estimated to represent about 50% of the natural wetland emissions and explain a large fraction of the observed CH4 variability on time scales ranging from glacial-interglacial cycles to the currently observed year-to-year variability. Despite their importance, however, tropical wetlands are poorly represented in global models aiming to predict global CH4 emissions. This study documents the first regional-scale, process-based model of CH4 emissions from tropical floodplains. The LPX-Bern Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (LPX hereafter was modified to represent floodplain hydrology, vegetation and associated CH4 emissions. The extent of tropical floodplains was prescribed using output from the spatially-explicit hydrology model PCR-GLOBWB. We introduced new Plant Functional Types (PFTs that explicitly represent floodplain vegetation. The PFT parameterizations were evaluated against available remote sensing datasets (GLC2000 land cover and MODIS Net Primary Productivity. Simulated CH4 flux densities were evaluated against field observations and regional flux inventories. Simulated CH4 emissions at Amazon Basin scale were compared to model simulations performed in the WETCHIMP intercomparison project. We found that LPX simulated CH4 flux densities are in reasonable agreement with observations at the field scale but with a~tendency to overestimate the flux observed at specific sites. In addition, the model did not reproduce between-site variations or between-year variations within a site. Unfortunately, site informations are too limited to attest or disprove some model features. At the Amazon Basin scale, our results underline the large uncertainty in the magnitude of wetland CH4 emissions. In particular, uncertainties in floodplain extent (i.e., difference between GLC2000 and PCR-GLOBWB output modulate the simulated emissions by a factor of about 2. Our best estimates, using PCR-GLOBWB in combination with GLC2000, lead to

  5. Scenario analysis on the global carbon emissions reduction goal proposed in the declaration of the 2009 G8 Summit

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    FANG JingYun; WANG ShaoPeng; YUE Chao; ZHU JiangLing; GUO ZhaoDi; HE CanFei; TANG ZhiYao

    2009-01-01

    A goal of a 50% reduction in global greenhouse gases emissions by 2050,with an 80% reduction by developed countries (hereafter referred to as the G8 Goal),was proposed at the G8 Summit held in L'Aquila,Italy,in July 2009.Here we analyze the scientific and political implications of the G8 Goal and its equity and feasibility by examining four greenhouse gas emissions scenarios.Our results show that (1) the goal to keep atmospheric CO_2 concentration of <450 ppmv,stated by G8 nations,can only be achieved under the scenario of a steady,linear emissions reduction by all countries and simultaneously meeting the G8 Goal during the period 2005-2050;(2) under the G8 Goal,the carbon emissions quota for developing countries would not meet their carbon emission demands even if very strict reduction regimes are followed,with a gap of up to>1/3 of emissions demand in the next 45 years;and (3) under the G8 Goal,the cumulative per capita emissions during the period of 2006-2050 for developed and developing countries will be 81 t C and 40-47 t C,respectively,with the former doubling that of the latter,implying that the historical disparity of carbon emissions between developed and developing countries would be widened.Historically,the cumulative per capita emissions from developed countries are 12 times of those from developing countries.We therefore conclude that (1) the G8 Goal seeks to impose binding reduction targets on developing countries that will impede their industrialization process and cause conflicts among developing countries in the allocation of carbon emission rights;(2) the G8 Goal will not only widen the existing disparities of historical carbon emissions between developed and developing countries,but also generate new inequalities in the rights of carbon emissions;and (3) the 450 ppmv threshold of atmospheric CO_2 concentration control,which is the basis for the G8 climate negotiation on carbon emission reduction.In summary,the G8 Goal is clearly against the

  6. Scenario analysis on the global carbon emissions reduction goal proposed in the declaration of the 2009 G8 Summit

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2009-01-01

    A goal of a 50% reduction in global greenhouse gases emissions by 2050, with an 80% reduction by developed countries (hereafter referred to as the G8 Goal), was proposed at the G8 Summit held in L’Aquila, Italy, in July 2009. Here we analyze the scientific and political implications of the G8 Goal and its equity and feasibility by examining four greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Our results show that (1) the goal to keep atmospheric CO2 concentration of <450 ppmv, stated by G8 nations, can only be achieved under the scenario of a steady, linear emissions reduction by all countries and simultaneously meeting the G8 Goal during the period 2005-2050; (2) under the G8 Goal, the carbon emissions quota for developing countries would not meet their carbon emission demands even if very strict reduction regimes are followed, with a gap of up to >1/3 of emissions demand in the next 45 years; and (3) under the G8 Goal, the cumulative per capita emissions during the period of 2006-2050 for developed and developing countries will be 81 t C and 40-47 t C, respectively, with the former doubling that of the latter, implying that the historical disparity of carbon emissions between developed and developing countries would be widened. Historically, the cumulative per capita emissions from developed countries are 12 times of those from developing countries. We therefore conclude that (1) the G8 Goal seeks to impose binding reduction targets on developing countries that will impede their industrialization process and cause conflicts among developing countries in the allocation of carbon emission rights; (2) the G8 Goal will not only widen the existing disparities of historical carbon emissions between developed and developing countries, but also generate new inequalities in the rights of carbon emissions; and (3) the 450 ppmv threshold of atmospheric CO2 concentration control, which is the basis for the G8 Goal, is impractical and impossible, and should not be accepted as the

  7. Enduse Global Emissions Mitigation Scenarios (EGEMS): A New Generation of Energy Efficiency Policy Planning Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McNeil, Michael A.; de la Rue du Can, Stephane; McMahon, James E.

    2009-05-29

    This paper presents efforts to date and prospective goals towards development of a modelling and analysis framework which is comprehensive enough to address the global climate crisis, and detailed enough to provide policymakers with concrete targets and achievable outcomes. In terms of energy efficiency policy, this requires coverage of the entire world, with emphasis on countries and regions with large and/or rapidly growing energy-related emissions, and analysis at the 'technology' level-building end use, transport mode or industrial process. These elements have not been fully addressed by existing modelling efforts, which usually take either a top-down approach, or concentrate on a few fully industrialized countries where energy demand is well-understood. Inclusion of details such as appliance ownership rates, use patterns and efficiency levels throughout the world allows for a deeper understanding of the demand for energy today and, more importantly, over the coming decades. This is a necessary next step for energy analysts and policy makers in assessment of mitigation potentials. The modelling system developed at LBNL over the past 3 years takes advantage of experience in end use demand and in forecasting markets for energy-consuming equipment, in combination with known technology-based efficiency opportunities and policy types. A particular emphasis has been placed on modelling energy growth in developing countries. Experiences to date include analyses covering individual countries (China and India), end uses (refrigerators and air conditioners) and policy types (standards and labelling). Each of these studies required a particular effort in data collection and model refinement--they share, however, a consistent approach and framework which allows comparison, and forms the foundation of a comprehensive analysis system leading to a roadmap to address the greenhouse gas mitigation targetslikely to be set in the coming years.

  8. Interpreting global energy and emission scenarios: Methods for understanding and communicating policy insights

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hummel, Leslie

    Energy scenarios for the 21st century powerfully inform perceptions and expectations in the minds of energy investors, consumers, and policy-makers. Scenarios that stabilize global warming call for large-scale energy technology transitions, fueling debates about the relative roles for a range of technologies including nuclear power, carbon sequestration, biofuels, solar power, and efficient end-use devices. In the last decade, hundreds of scenarios have been published by more than a dozen research teams using different models, baselines and mitigation targets. Despite the efforts to summarize findings in a few major assessments, a gap in understanding remains at a critical science-policy juncture between scenario analysts and the audiences their work is designed to serve. Addressing the issue requires an interdisciplinary approach that incorporates knowledge and methods from the fields of energy engineering, economics, climate science, and policy analysis. This research applies two analytical techniques to investigate the effects of an imposed climate policy on the underlying energy system. The first disentangles the effect of a policy intervention on key demographic and technology drivers of fossil fuel use, and the second decomposes reductions in emissions by specific energy technology types. Because the techniques may be applied to any energy scenario with technology detail, this study demonstrates their application to ten sample stabilization scenarios from three leading models. Revealing the importance of data and assumptions overlooked or not well disclosed in the past, the results highlight an implausibly high pressure on energy supply innovations while the potential for energy efficiency improvements is systematically underestimated. The findings are significant to both scenario analysts and the decision-makers in public policy and private investment who are influenced by their work.

  9. A monthly global paleo-reanalysis of the atmosphere from 1600 to 2005 for studying past climatic variations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franke, Jörg; Brönnimann, Stefan; Bhend, Jonas; Brugnara, Yuri

    2017-06-01

    Climatic variations at decadal scales such as phases of accelerated warming or weak monsoons have profound effects on society and economy. Studying these variations requires insights from the past. However, most current reconstructions provide either time series or fields of regional surface climate, which limit our understanding of the underlying dynamics. Here, we present the first monthly paleo-reanalysis covering the period 1600 to 2005. Over land, instrumental temperature and surface pressure observations, temperature indices derived from historical documents and climate sensitive tree-ring measurements were assimilated into an atmospheric general circulation model ensemble using a Kalman filtering technique. This data set combines the advantage of traditional reconstruction methods of being as close as possible to observations with the advantage of climate models of being physically consistent and having 3-dimensional information about the state of the atmosphere for various variables and at all points in time. In contrast to most statistical reconstructions, centennial variability stems from the climate model and its forcings, no stationarity assumptions are made and error estimates are provided.

  10. Photosynthesis-dependent isoprene emission from leaf to planet in a global carbon-chemistry-climate model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Unger

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available We describe the implementation of a biochemical model of isoprene emission that depends on the electron requirement for isoprene synthesis into the Farquhar–Ball–Berry leaf model of photosynthesis and stomatal conductance that is embedded within a global chemistry-climate simulation framework. The isoprene production is calculated as a function of electron transport-limited photosynthesis, intercellular and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, and canopy temperature. The vegetation biophysics module computes the photosynthetic uptake of carbon dioxide coupled with the transpiration of water vapor and the isoprene emission rate at the 30 min physical integration time step of the global chemistry-climate model. In the model, the rate of carbon assimilation provides the dominant control on isoprene emission variability over canopy temperature. A control simulation representative of the present-day climatic state that uses 8 plant functional types (PFTs, prescribed phenology and generic PFT-specific isoprene emission potentials (fraction of electrons available for isoprene synthesis reproduces 50% of the variability across different ecosystems and seasons in a global database of 28 measured campaign-average fluxes. Compared to time-varying isoprene flux measurements at 9 select sites, the model authentically captures the observed variability in the 30 min average diurnal cycle (R2 = 64–96% and simulates the flux magnitude to within a factor of 2. The control run yields a global isoprene source strength of 451 TgC yr−1 that increases by 30% in the artificial absence of plant water stress and by 55% for potential natural vegetation.

  11. Photosynthesis-dependent isoprene emission from leaf to planet in a global carbon-chemistry-climate model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Unger, N.; Harper, K.; Zheng, Y.; Kiang, N. Y.; Aleinov, I.; Arneth, Almut; Schurgers, G.; Amelynck, C.; Goldstein, Allen H.; Guenther, Alex B.; Heinesch, B.; Hewitt, C. N.; Karl, T.; Laffineur, Q.; Langford, B.; McKinney, Karena A.; Misztal, P.; Potosnak, M.; Rinne, J.; Pressley, S.; Schoon, N.; Serca, D.

    2013-10-22

    We describe the implementation of a biochemical model of isoprene emission that depends on the electron requirement for isoprene synthesis into the Farquhar/Ball- Berry leaf model of photosynthesis and stomatal conductance that is embedded within a global chemistry-climate simulation framework. The isoprene production is calculated as a function of electron transport-limited photosynthesis, intercellular carbon dioxide concentration, and canopy temperature. The vegetation biophysics module computes the photosynthetic uptake of carbon dioxide coupled with the transpiration of water vapor and the isoprene emission rate at the 30 min physical integration time step of the global chemistry-climate model. In the model, the rate of carbon assimilation provides the dominant control on isoprene emission variability over canopy temperature. A control simulation representative of the present day climatic state that uses plant functional types (PFTs), prescribed phenology and generic PFT-specific isoprene emission potentials (fraction of electrons available for isoprene synthesis) reproduces 50% of the variability across different ecosystems and seasons in a global database of measured campaign-average fluxes. Compared to time-varying isoprene flux measurements at select sites, the model authentically captures the observed variability in the 30 min average diurnal cycle (R2 = 64-96 %) and simulates the flux magnitude to within a factor of 2. The control run yields a global isoprene source strength of 451 TgC yr-1 that increases by 30% in the artificial absence of plant water stress and by 55% for potential natural vegetation.

  12. Historic global biomass burning emissions based on merging satellite observations with proxies and fire models (1750–2015)

    OpenAIRE

    Marle, Margreet J. E.; Kloster, Silvia; Magi, Brian I.; Marlon, Jennifer R.; Daniau, Anne-Laure; Field, Robert D.; Arneth, Almut; Forrest, Matthew; Hantson, Stijn; Kehrwald, Natalie M.; Knorr, Wolfgang; Lasslop, Gitta; Li,Fang; Mangeon, Stéphane; Yue, Chao

    2017-01-01

    Fires have influenced atmospheric composition and climate since the rise of vascular plants, and satellite data has shown the overall global extent of fires. Our knowledge of historic fire emissions has progressively improved over the past decades due mostly to the development of new proxies and the improvement of fire models. Currently there is a suite of proxies including sedimentary charcoal records, measurements of fire-emitted trace gases and black carbon stored in ice and firn, and visi...

  13. Natural and Anthropogenic Controls over Global Terrestrial N2O Emission Growth at a Century-Long Time Scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, C.; Tian, H.; Kamaljit, K.; Zhang, B.

    2014-12-01

    The Atmospheric concentration of nitrous oxide (N2O) has increased by 20% relative to pre-industrial level. It has attracted growing attention since N2O has long life time and radiative forcing 265 times higher than CO2 at 100-year time horizon. Global N2O emission from terrestrial ecosystem is among the most important contributors to the increase of atmospheric N2O. However, compared to CO2- and CH4-related research, less intensive studies have been performed in assessing the spatiotemporal patterns of terrestrial N2O emission and attributing its changes to both natural and anthropogenic disturbances across the globe. Here we integrated gridded time-series data of climate variability, atmospheric CO2 concentration, nitrogen deposition, land use and land cover changes, and agricultural land management practices (i.e., synthetic nitrogen fertilizer use, manure application, and irrigation etc.) to a process-based land ecosystem model, DLEM, for answering the above questions. During 1900-2010, the inter-annual variation and long-term trend of terrestrial N2O emission driven by individual and combined environmental changes have been examined. Through this, we distinguished and quantified the relative contributions of changes in climate, atmospheric composition, and human activities to N2O emission growth at biome-, latitudinal, continental and global scales. The impacts of climate variability, and increasing nitrogen input, particularly nitrogen fertilizer use along with enhanced food production, have been paid special attention. Hot spots and hot time periods of global N2O emission are identified in this study. It provides clue for scientific community and policy makers to develop potential management strategies for mitigating atmospheric N2O increase and climate warming.

  14. Global EDGAR greenhouse gas emissions and national emissions reporting under the UN Climate Convention: availability, structure, definitions and role of uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olivier, J. G.; Monni, S.; van Aardenne, J.; Doering, U. M.; Janssens-Maenhout, G.; Peters, J. A.; Pagliari, V.

    2010-12-01

    JRC and PBL have compiled a comprehensive EDGAR v4 dataset for the ‘six’ greenhouse gases included in the Kyoto Protocol (CO2, CH4, N2O, HFCs, PFCs and SF6), which were constructed using consistently the 2006 IPCC methodology and combining activity data (international statistics) from publicly available sources and for the first time - to the extent possible - emission factors as recommended by the IPCC 2006 guidelines for GHG emission inventories. This dataset, that covers all countries, provides independent estimates for all anthropogenic sources from 1970 onwards that are consistent over time and comparable between countries. By using high resolution global grid maps per source category, we also compiled datasets with annual emissions on a 0.1x0.1 degree grid, as input for atmospheric models. Of the 220 UN nations only 43 industrialised countries (‘Annex I’) annually report their national GHG emissions in large detail from 1990 up to (presently) 2008, while most developing countries (‘non-Annex I’) for the UN Climate Convention (UNFCCC) and the Kyoto Protocol only report a summary table with emissions for one or more years (many only for 1994). All emissions in EDGAR 4 are detailed at country level using the same standard IPCC inventory source categories as used by industrialised countries in their report to the Climate Convention. Thus we provide full and up-to-date inventories per country, also for developing countries that go beyond the mostly very aggregated UNFCCC reports of the developing countries. Moreover, the time series back in time to 1970 provides for the UNFCCC trends a historic perspective. As part of our objective to contribute to more reliable inventories by providing a reference emissions database for emission scenarios, inventory comparisons and for atmospheric modellers, we strive to transparently document all data sources used and assumptions made where data was missing, in particular for assumptions made on the shares of

  15. Responding to climate change and the global land crisis: REDD+, market transformation and low-emissions rural development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nepstad, Daniel C; Boyd, William; Stickler, Claudia M; Bezerra, Tathiana; Azevedo, Andrea A

    2013-06-05

    Climate change and rapidly escalating global demand for food, fuel, fibre and feed present seemingly contradictory challenges to humanity. Can greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from land-use, more than one-fourth of the global total, decline as growth in land-based production accelerates? This review examines the status of two major international initiatives that are designed to address different aspects of this challenge. REDD+ is an emerging policy framework for providing incentives to tropical nations and states that reduce their GHG emissions from deforestation and forest degradation. Market transformation, best represented by agricultural commodity roundtables, seeks to exclude unsustainable farmers from commodity markets through international social and environmental standards for farmers and processors. These global initiatives could potentially become synergistically integrated through (i) a shared approach for measuring and favouring high environmental and social performance of land use across entire jurisdictions and (ii) stronger links with the domestic policies, finance and laws in the jurisdictions where agricultural expansion is moving into forests. To achieve scale, the principles of REDD+ and sustainable farming systems must be embedded in domestic low-emission rural development models capable of garnering support across multiple constituencies. We illustrate this potential with the case of Mato Grosso State in the Brazilian Amazon.

  16. Response of Freshwater Systems to Local and Global Changes in Mercury Emissions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Levin L.

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Lakes and other waterways, and the biota in those waterways, receiving their mercury burden primarily via atmospheric deposition can be expected to exhibit responses to changes in deposition over an extended time period. A projected control strategy for power plant emissions of mercury was imposed on modeled U.S. plants, while international emissions were modeled for two Chinese emission scenarios: a “business-as-usual” scenario and an “expedited controls” scenario. Levels of mercury in fish were simulated in a New England lake located close to a large U.S. power plant. Results indicated that fish responses to mercury emissions changes were spread over several years, and that even severe reductions in U.S. emissions were masked by non-U.S. emissions growth.

  17. Global metaanalysis of the nonlinear response of soil nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions to fertilizer nitrogen.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shcherbak, Iurii; Millar, Neville; Robertson, G Philip

    2014-06-24

    Nitrous oxide (N2O) is a potent greenhouse gas (GHG) that also depletes stratospheric ozone. Nitrogen (N) fertilizer rate is the best single predictor of N2O emissions from agricultural soils, which are responsible for ∼ 50% of the total global anthropogenic flux, but it is a relatively imprecise estimator. Accumulating evidence suggests that the emission response to increasing N input is exponential rather than linear, as assumed by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change methodologies. We performed a metaanalysis to test the generalizability of this pattern. From 78 published studies (233 site-years) with at least three N-input levels, we calculated N2O emission factors (EFs) for each nonzero input level as a percentage of N input converted to N2O emissions. We found that the N2O response to N inputs grew significantly faster than linear for synthetic fertilizers and for most crop types. N-fixing crops had a higher rate of change in EF (ΔEF) than others. A higher ΔEF was also evident in soils with carbon >1.5% and soils with pH GHG inventories should improve assessments of fertilizer-derived N2O emissions, help address disparities in the global N2O budget, and refine the accuracy of N2O mitigation protocols. In low-input systems typical of sub-Saharan Africa, for example, modest N additions will have little impact on estimated N2O emissions, whereas equivalent additions (or reductions) in excessively fertilized systems will have a disproportionately major impact.

  18. Downscaling Global Emissions and Its Implications Derived from Climate Model Experiments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fujimori, Shinichiro; Abe, Manabu; Kinoshita, Tsuguki; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Kawase, Hiroaki; Kushida, Kazuhide; Masui, Toshihiko; Oka, Kazutaka; Shiogama, Hideo; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Tatebe, Hiroaki; Yoshikawa, Minoru

    2017-01-01

    In climate change research, future scenarios of greenhouse gas and air pollutant emissions generated by integrated assessment models (IAMs) are used in climate models (CMs) and earth system models to analyze future interactions and feedback between human activities and climate. However, the spatial resolutions of IAMs and CMs differ. IAMs usually disaggregate the world into 10-30 aggregated regions, whereas CMs require a grid-based spatial resolution. Therefore, downscaling emissions data from IAMs into a finer scale is necessary to input the emissions into CMs. In this study, we examined whether differences in downscaling methods significantly affect climate variables such as temperature and precipitation. We tested two downscaling methods using the same regionally aggregated sulfur emissions scenario obtained from the Asian-Pacific Integrated Model/Computable General Equilibrium (AIM/CGE) model. The downscaled emissions were fed into the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC). One of the methods assumed a strong convergence of national emissions intensity (e.g., emissions per gross domestic product), while the other was based on inertia (i.e., the base-year remained unchanged). The emissions intensities in the downscaled spatial emissions generated from the two methods markedly differed, whereas the emissions densities (emissions per area) were similar. We investigated whether the climate change projections of temperature and precipitation would significantly differ between the two methods by applying a field significance test, and found little evidence of a significant difference between the two methods. Moreover, there was no clear evidence of a difference between the climate simulations based on these two downscaling methods.

  19. Downscaling Global Emissions and Its Implications Derived from Climate Model Experiments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abe, Manabu; Kinoshita, Tsuguki; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Kawase, Hiroaki; Kushida, Kazuhide; Masui, Toshihiko; Oka, Kazutaka; Shiogama, Hideo; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Tatebe, Hiroaki; Yoshikawa, Minoru

    2017-01-01

    In climate change research, future scenarios of greenhouse gas and air pollutant emissions generated by integrated assessment models (IAMs) are used in climate models (CMs) and earth system models to analyze future interactions and feedback between human activities and climate. However, the spatial resolutions of IAMs and CMs differ. IAMs usually disaggregate the world into 10–30 aggregated regions, whereas CMs require a grid-based spatial resolution. Therefore, downscaling emissions data from IAMs into a finer scale is necessary to input the emissions into CMs. In this study, we examined whether differences in downscaling methods significantly affect climate variables such as temperature and precipitation. We tested two downscaling methods using the same regionally aggregated sulfur emissions scenario obtained from the Asian-Pacific Integrated Model/Computable General Equilibrium (AIM/CGE) model. The downscaled emissions were fed into the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC). One of the methods assumed a strong convergence of national emissions intensity (e.g., emissions per gross domestic product), while the other was based on inertia (i.e., the base-year remained unchanged). The emissions intensities in the downscaled spatial emissions generated from the two methods markedly differed, whereas the