Revisiting Asian monsoon formation and change associated with Tibetan Plateau forcing: I. Formation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wu, Guoxiong; Liu, Yimin; Duan, Anmin; Bao, Qing [Chinese Academy of Sciences, State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Beijing (China); Dong, Buwen [University of Reading, Department of Meteorology, National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Reading (United Kingdom); Liang, Xiaoyun [China Meteorological Administration, National Climate Center, Beijing (China); Yu, Jingjing [China Meteorological Administration, National Meteorological Information Center, Beijing (China)

2012-09-15

Numerical experiments with different idealized land and mountain distributions are carried out to study the formation of the Asian monsoon and related coupling processes. Results demonstrate that when there is only extratropical continent located between 0 and 120 E and between 20/30 N and the North Pole, a rather weak monsoon rainband appears along the southern border of the continent, coexisting with an intense intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). The continuous ITCZ surrounds the whole globe, prohibits the development of near-surface cross-equatorial flow, and collects water vapor from tropical oceans, resulting in very weak monsoon rainfall. When tropical lands are integrated, the ITCZ over the longitude domain where the extratropical continent exists disappears as a consequence of the development of a strong surface cross-equatorial flow from the winter hemisphere to the summer hemisphere. In addition, an intense interaction between the two hemispheres develops, tropical water vapor is transported to the subtropics by the enhanced poleward flow, and a prototype of the Asian monsoon appears. The Tibetan Plateau acts to enhance the coupling between the lower and upper tropospheric circulations and between the subtropical and tropical monsoon circulations, resulting in an intensification of the East Asian summer monsoon and a weakening of the South Asian summer monsoon. Linking the Iranian Plateau to the Tibetan Plateau substantially reduces the precipitation over Africa and increases the precipitation over the Arabian Sea and the northern Indian subcontinent, effectively contributing to the development of the South Asian summer monsoon. (orig.)

Wind profiler observations of a monsoon low-level jet over a tropical Indian station

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. C. R. Kalapureddy

2007-11-01

Full Text Available Three-year high-resolution wind observations of the wind profiler have been utilized to characterize the diurnal and seasonal features of the monsoon Low-Level Jet (LLJ over a tropical station, Gadanki (13.5° N, 79.2° E, with a focus on the diurnal variability of low-level winds. The Boreal summer monsoon winds show a conspicuously strong westerly LLJ with average wind speed exceeding 20 m s⁻¹. The L-band wind profiler measurements have shown an advantage of better height and time resolutions over the conventional radiosonde method for diurnal wind measurements. An interesting diurnal oscillation of LLJ core has been observed. It is varying in the height range of 1.8±0.6 km with the maximum and minimum intensity noticed during the early morning and afternoon hours, respectively. The jet core (wind maxima height is observed to coincide with the inversion height. Strong wind shears are normally located beneath the LLJ core. The sole wind profiler observations are capable of identifying the monsoon phases, such as onset, break and active spells, etc. The mutual influence between the LLJ and the boundary layer has been discussed. One notices that the observed LLJ diurnal structures depend on the local convective activity, wind shears and turbulence activity associated with boundary layer winds. The day-to-day change in the LLJ structure depends on the latitudinal position of the LLJ core.

Quantifying pollution transport from the Asian monsoon anticyclone into the lower stratosphere

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

F. Ploeger

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Pollution transport from the surface to the stratosphere within the Asian monsoon circulation may cause harmful effects on stratospheric chemistry and climate. Here, we investigate air mass transport from the monsoon anticyclone into the stratosphere using a Lagrangian chemistry transport model. We show how two main transport pathways from the anticyclone emerge: (i into the tropical stratosphere (tropical pipe, and (ii into the Northern Hemisphere (NH extratropical lower stratosphere. Maximum anticyclone air mass fractions reach around 5 % in the tropical pipe and 15 % in the extratropical lowermost stratosphere over the course of a year. The anticyclone air mass fraction correlates well with satellite hydrogen cyanide (HCN and carbon monoxide (CO observations, confirming that pollution is transported deep into the tropical stratosphere from the Asian monsoon anticyclone. Cross-tropopause transport occurs in a vertical chimney, but with the pollutants transported quasi-horizontally along isentropes above the tropopause into the tropics and NH.

Monsoon Convective During the South China Sea Monsoon Experiment: Observations from Ground-Based Radar and the TRMM Satellite

Science.gov (United States)

Cifelli, Rob; Rickenbach, Tom; Halverson, Jeff; Keenan, Tom; Kucera, Paul; Atkinson, Lester; Fisher, Brad; Gerlach, John; Harris, Kathy; Kaufman, Cristina

1999-01-01

A main goal of the recent South China Sea Monsoon Experiment (SCSMEX) was to study convective processes associated with the onset of the Southeast Asian summer monsoon. The NASA TOGA C-band scanning radar was deployed on the Chinese research vessel Shi Yan #3 for two 20 day cruises, collecting dual-Doppler measurements in conjunction with the BMRC C-Pol dual-polarimetric radar on Dongsha Island. Soundings and surface meteorological data were also collected with an NCAR Integrated Sounding System (ISS). This experiment was the first major tropical field campaign following the launch of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite. These observations of tropical oceanic convection provided an opportunity to make comparisons between surface radar measurements and the Precipitation Radar (PR) aboard the TRMM satellite in an oceanic environment. Nearly continuous radar operations were conducted during two Intensive Observing Periods (IOPS) straddling the onset of the monsoon (5-25 May 1998 and 5-25 June 1998). Mesoscale lines of convection with widespread regions of both trailing and forward stratiform precipitation were observed following the onset of the active monsoon in the northern South China Sea region. The vertical structure of the convection during periods of strong westerly flow and relatively moist environmental conditions in the lower to mid-troposphere contrasted sharply with convection observed during periods of low level easterlies, weak shear, and relatively dry conditions in the mid to upper troposphere. Several examples of mesoscale convection will be shown from the ground (ship)-based and spaceborne radar data during times of TRMM satellite overpasses. Examples of pre-monsoon convection, characterized by isolated cumulonimbus and shallow, precipitating congestus clouds, will also be discussed.

Sensible climates in monsoon Asia.

Science.gov (United States)

Ono, H S; Kawamura, T

1991-06-01

This study identifies characteristics of the geographical distribution of sensible climates and their diurnal and annual variations, and presents a classification of bioclimates in monsoon Asia by using Kawamura's discomfort index formula. During the hottest month, tropical areas and areas in central and South China are uncomfortable for humans throughout the day and night, and temperate zones in lowlands are uncomfortable during the daytime. Tropical zones are uncomfortable all year long and temperate zones in lowlands are uncomfortable during summer. Four climatic types were distinguished in monsoon Asia. Climatic type I, hyperthermal throughout the year, occurs in the tropics south of latitude 20 degrees N. Climatic type II, hyperthermal in the hottest month and comfortable in the coldest month, extends over latitudes from 20 degrees to 30 degrees N except in the highlands. Climatic type III, hyperthermal in the hottest month and hypothermal in the coldest month, encompasses temperate zones of East Asia and subtropical arid areas of northwestern India. Climatic type V, comfortable in the hottest month and hypothermal in coldest month, occurs near the southeast coast of the Soviet Union and in the highlands of the Himalayas.

Relação dos sistemas de monção com as variabilidades tropical interanual e multi-decenal Relations of the monsoon systems to the tropical multi-decadal and interannual variabilities

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Sâmia Regina Garcia

2009-03-01

Full Text Available A variabilidade da circulação tropical, com ênfase nos sistemas monçônicos, é examinada usando diversas variáveis para o período de 1948-1999. A componente monçônica do potencial de velocidade em 200 hPa (χ-transiente, o desvio da média anual do desvio da média zonal, é o parâmetro chave usado para obter os modos monçônicos. A análise de Funções Ortogonais Empíricas (EOF do χ-transiente fornece dois modos separados. O primeiro modo descreve a variabilidade multi-decenal dos sistemas monçônicos da América do Sul e do Pacífico oeste. Esse modo, chamado monçônico multi-decenal (MMD, ocorre por todo o ano e contém a variabilidade multi-decenal relacionada à dinâmica da Oscilação Decenal do Pacífico (ODP. O segundo modo descreve as variações interanuais opostas entre a Ásia, África e oceano Índico e a região do oeste dos Estados Unidos, México e Pacífico leste. Esse modo, chamado modo interanual (MIA apresenta algumas similaridades com o modo tropical interanual El Niño - Oscilação Sul. Alguns aspectos desses modos, incluindo sua circulação e características termodinâmicas são discutidas aqui. Finalmente, índices baseados nos padrões das configurações espaciais desses modos são construídos. A eficiência desses índices para fins de monitoramento é analisada. Logo, trata-se de um novo aspecto não proposto em trabalhos anteriores.Tropical circulation variability, with emphasis on the monsoon systems is examined using several variables for the 1948-1999 period. The monsoon component in the 200 hPa velocity potential (transient-χ, the deviation from the annual mean of the zonal deviation field, is the key parameter used here to obtain the monsoon modes. The Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF analysis of the transient-χ yields two separate modes. The first mode describes the multi-decadal variability of the monsoon systems in South America and in the western Pacific. This mode, called the multi

Budgeting suspended sediment fluxes in tropical monsoonal watersheds with limited data: the Lake Tana basin

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Zimale Fasikaw A.

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Soil erosion decreases soil fertility of the uplands and causes siltation of lakes and reservoirs; the lakes and reservoirs in tropical monsoonal African highlands are especially affected by sedimentation. Efforts in reducing loads by designing management practices are hampered by lack of quantitative data on the relationship of erosion in the watersheds and sediment accumulation on flood plains, lakes and reservoirs. The objective of this study is to develop a prototype quantitative method for estimating sediment budget for tropical monsoon lakes with limited observational data. Four watersheds in the Lake Tana basin were selected for this study. The Parameter Efficient Distributed (PED model that has shown to perform well in the Ethiopian highlands is used to overcome the data limitations and recreate the missing sediment fluxes. PED model parameters are calibrated using daily discharge data and the occasionally collected sediment concentration when establishing the sediment rating curves for the major rivers. The calibrated model parameters are then used to predict the sediment budget for the 1994-2009 period. Sediment retained in the lake is determined from two bathymetric surveys taken 20 years apart whereas the sediment leaving the lake is calculated based on measured discharge and observed sediment concentrations. Results show that annually on average 34 t/ha/year of sediment is removed from the gauged part of the Lake Tana watersheds. Depending on the up-scaling method from the gauged to the ungauged part, 21 to 32 t/ha/year (equivalent to 24-38 Mt/year is transported from the upland watersheds of which 46% to 65% is retained in the flood plains and 93% to 96% is trapped on the flood plains and in the lake. Thus, only 4-7% of all sediment produced in the watersheds leaves the Lake Tana Basin.

Indian monsoon variability on millennial-orbital timescales.

Science.gov (United States)

Kathayat, Gayatri; Cheng, Hai; Sinha, Ashish; Spötl, Christoph; Edwards, R Lawrence; Zhang, Haiwei; Li, Xianglei; Yi, Liang; Ning, Youfeng; Cai, Yanjun; Lui, Weiguo Lui; Breitenbach, Sebastian F M

2016-04-13

The Indian summer monsoon (ISM) monsoon is critical to billions of people living in the region. Yet, significant debates remain on primary ISM drivers on millennial-orbital timescales. Here, we use speleothem oxygen isotope (δ(18)O) data from Bittoo cave, Northern India to reconstruct ISM variability over the past 280,000 years. We find strong coherence between North Indian and Chinese speleothem δ(18)O records from the East Asian monsoon domain, suggesting that both Asian monsoon subsystems exhibit a coupled response to changes in Northern Hemisphere summer insolation (NHSI) without significant temporal lags, supporting the view that the tropical-subtropical monsoon variability is driven directly by precession-induced changes in NHSI. Comparisons of the North Indian record with both Antarctic ice core and sea-surface temperature records from the southern Indian Ocean over the last glacial period do not suggest a dominant role of Southern Hemisphere climate processes in regulating the ISM variability on millennial-orbital timescales.

Primary production of tropical marine ecosystems

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Bhattathiri, P.M.A.

Among tropical marine ecosystems estuaries are one of the highly productive areas and act as a nursery to large number of organisms. The primary production in most of the estuaries is less during the monsoon period. Post-monsoon period shows...

Glacial-interglacial water cycle, global monsoon and atmospheric methane changes

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Guo, Zhengtang; Wu, Haibin [Chinese Academy of Sciences, Key Laboratory of Cenozoic Geology and Environment, Institute of Geology and Geophysics, Beijing (China); Zhou, Xin [Chinese Academy of Sciences, Key Laboratory of Cenozoic Geology and Environment, Institute of Geology and Geophysics, Beijing (China); University of Science and Technology of China, School of Earth and Space Sciences and Institute of Polar Environment, Hefei (China)

2012-09-15

The causes of atmospheric methane (CH{sub 4}) changes are still a major contention, in particular with regards to the relative contributions of glacial-interglacial cycles, monsoons in both hemispheres and the late Holocene human intervention. Here, we explore the CH{sub 4} signals in the Antarctic EPICA Dome C and Vostok ice records using the methods of timeseries analyses and correlate them with insolation and geological records to address these issues. The results parse out three distinct groups of CH{sub 4} signals attributable to different drivers. The first group ({proportional_to}80% variance), well tracking the marine {delta}{sup 18}O record, is attributable to glacial-interglacial modulation on the global water cycle with the effects shared by wetlands at all latitudes, from monsoonal and non-monsoonal regions in both hemispheres. The second group ({proportional_to}15% variance), centered at the {proportional_to}10-kyr semi-precession frequency, is linkable with insolation-driven tropical monsoon changes in both hemispheres. The third group ({proportional_to}5% variance), marked by millennial frequencies, is seemingly related with the combined effect of ice-volume and bi-hemispheric insolation changes at the precession bands. These results indicate that bi-hemispheric monsoon changes have been a constant driver of atmospheric CH{sub 4}. This mechanism also partially explains the Holocene CH{sub 4} reversal since {proportional_to}5 kyr BP besides the human intervention. In the light of these results, we propose that global monsoon can be regarded as a system consisting of two main integrated components, one primarily driven by the oscillations of Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in response to the low-latitude summer insolation changes, anti-phase between the two hemispheres (i.e. the ITCZ monsoon component); and another modulated by the glacial-interglacial cycles, mostly synchronous at the global scale (i.e. the glacial-interglacial monsoon

Monsoon oscillations regulate fertility of the Red Sea

KAUST Repository

Raitsos, Dionysios E.

2015-02-16

Tropical ocean ecosystems are predicted to become warmer, more saline, and less fertile in a future Earth. The Red Sea, one of the warmest and most saline environments in the world, may afford insights into the function of the tropical ocean ecosystem in a changing planet. We show that the concentration of chlorophyll and the duration of the phytoplankton growing season in the Red Sea are controlled by the strength of the winter Arabian monsoon (through horizontal advection of fertile waters from the Indian Ocean). Furthermore, and contrary to expectation, in the last decade (1998-2010) the winter Red Sea phytoplankton biomass has increased by 75% during prolonged positive phases of the Multivariate El Niño-Southern Oscillation Index. A new mechanism is reported, revealing the synergy of monsoon and climate in regulating Red Sea greenness. © 2015 The Authors.

Monsoon oscillations regulate fertility of the Red Sea

KAUST Repository

Raitsos, Dionysios E.; Yi, Xing; Platt, Trevor; Racault, Marie-Fanny; Brewin, Robert J. W.; Pradhan, Yaswant; Papadopoulos, Vassilis P.; Sathyendranath, Shubha; Hoteit, Ibrahim

2015-01-01

Tropical ocean ecosystems are predicted to become warmer, more saline, and less fertile in a future Earth. The Red Sea, one of the warmest and most saline environments in the world, may afford insights into the function of the tropical ocean ecosystem in a changing planet. We show that the concentration of chlorophyll and the duration of the phytoplankton growing season in the Red Sea are controlled by the strength of the winter Arabian monsoon (through horizontal advection of fertile waters from the Indian Ocean). Furthermore, and contrary to expectation, in the last decade (1998-2010) the winter Red Sea phytoplankton biomass has increased by 75% during prolonged positive phases of the Multivariate El Niño-Southern Oscillation Index. A new mechanism is reported, revealing the synergy of monsoon and climate in regulating Red Sea greenness. © 2015 The Authors.

Cyclone trends constrain monsoon variability during late Oligocene sea level highstands (Kachchh Basin, NW India)

Science.gov (United States)

Reuter, M.; Piller, W. E.; Harzhauser, M.; Kroh, A.

2013-09-01

Climate change has an unknown impact on tropical cyclones and the Asian monsoon. Herein we present a sequence of fossil shell beds from the shallow-marine Maniyara Fort Formation (Kachcch Basin) as a recorder of tropical cyclone activity along the NW Indian coast during the late Oligocene warming period (~ 27-24 Ma). Proxy data providing information about the atmospheric circulation dynamics over the Indian subcontinent at this time are important since it corresponds to a major climate reorganization in Asia that ends up with the establishment of the modern Asian monsoon system at the Oligocene-Miocene boundary. The vast shell concentrations are comprised of a mixture of parautochthonous and allochthonous assemblages indicating storm-generated sediment transport from deeper to shallow water during third-order sea level highstands. Three distinct skeletal assemblages were distinguished, each recording a relative storm wave base. (1) A shallow storm wave base is shown by nearshore molluscs, reef corals and Clypeaster echinoids; (2) an intermediate storm wave base depth is indicated by lepidocyclinid foraminifers, Eupatagus echinoids and corallinacean algae; and (3) a deep storm wave base is represented by an Amussiopecten bivalve-Schizaster echinoid assemblage. These wave base depth estimates were used for the reconstruction of long-term tropical storm intensity during the late Oligocene. The development and intensification of cyclones over the recent Arabian Sea is primarily limited by the atmospheric monsoon circulation and strength of the associated vertical wind shear. Therefore, since the topographic boundary conditions for the Indian monsoon already existed in the late Oligocene, the reconstructed long-term cyclone trends were interpreted to reflect monsoon variability during the initiation of the Asian monsoon system. Our results imply an active monsoon over the Eastern Tethys at ~ 26 Ma followed by a period of monsoon weakening during the peak of the late

Mediterranean climate and some tropical teleconnections

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alpert, P.; Price, C.; Krichak, S.; Saaroni, H.; Osetinsky, I.; Barkan, J.; Kishcha, P.; Ziv, B.

2006-01-01

Some strong natural fluctuations of climate in the Eastern Mediterranean (EM) region are shown to be connected to the major tropical systems, e.g., El Ni no Southern Oscillation, South Asian Monsoon and hurricanes. Modelling of the severe floods suggests a relation to tropical hurricanes. For a specific event, high-resolution modelling of the severe flood on December 3-5, 2001 in Israel suggests a relation to hurricane Olga. In order to understand the factors governing the Eastern Mediterranean climate variability in the summer season, the relationship between extreme summer temperatures and the South Asian Monsoon was examined. Other tropical factors, like the Red Sea Trough system and the Saharan dust, also contribute to the Mediterranean climate variability

Decoupling of monsoon activity across the northern and southern Indo-Pacific during the Late Glacial

Science.gov (United States)

Denniston, R. F.; Asmerom, Y.; Polyak, V. J.; Wanamaker, A. D.; Ummenhofer, C. C.; Humphreys, W. F.; Cugley, J.; Woods, D.; Lucker, S.

2017-11-01

Recent studies of stalagmites from the Southern Hemisphere tropics of Indonesia reveal two shifts in monsoon activity not apparent in records from the Northern Hemisphere sectors of the Austral-Asian monsoon system: an interval of enhanced rainfall at ∼19 ka, immediately prior to Heinrich Stadial 1, and a sharp increase in precipitation at ∼9 ka. Determining whether these events are site-specific or regional is important for understanding the full range of sensitivities of the Austral-Asian monsoon. We present a discontinuous 40 kyr carbon isotope record of stalagmites from two caves in the Kimberley region of the north-central Australian tropics. Heinrich stadials are represented by pronounced negative carbon isotopic anomalies, indicative of enhanced rainfall associated with a southward shift of the intertropical convergence zone and consistent with hydroclimatic changes observed across Asia and the Indo-Pacific. Between 20 and 8 ka, however, the Kimberley stalagmites, like the Indonesian record, reveal decoupling of monsoon behavior from Southeast Asia, including the early deglacial wet period (which we term the Late Glacial Pluvial) and the abrupt strengthening of early Holocene monsoon rainfall.

Prediction of monthly rainfall on homogeneous monsoon regions of India based on large scale circulation patterns using Genetic Programming

Science.gov (United States)

Kashid, Satishkumar S.; Maity, Rajib

2012-08-01

SummaryPrediction of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) is of vital importance for Indian economy, and it has been remained a great challenge for hydro-meteorologists due to inherent complexities in the climatic systems. The Large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns from tropical Pacific Ocean (ENSO) and those from tropical Indian Ocean (EQUINOO) are established to influence the Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall. The information of these two large scale atmospheric circulation patterns in terms of their indices is used to model the complex relationship between Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall and the ENSO as well as EQUINOO indices. However, extracting the signal from such large-scale indices for modeling such complex systems is significantly difficult. Rainfall predictions have been done for 'All India' as one unit, as well as for five 'homogeneous monsoon regions of India', defined by Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology. Recent 'Artificial Intelligence' tool 'Genetic Programming' (GP) has been employed for modeling such problem. The Genetic Programming approach is found to capture the complex relationship between the monthly Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall and large scale atmospheric circulation pattern indices - ENSO and EQUINOO. Research findings of this study indicate that GP-derived monthly rainfall forecasting models, that use large-scale atmospheric circulation information are successful in prediction of All India Summer Monsoon Rainfall with correlation coefficient as good as 0.866, which may appears attractive for such a complex system. A separate analysis is carried out for All India Summer Monsoon rainfall for India as one unit, and five homogeneous monsoon regions, based on ENSO and EQUINOO indices of months of March, April and May only, performed at end of month of May. In this case, All India Summer Monsoon Rainfall could be predicted with 0.70 as correlation coefficient with somewhat lesser Correlation Coefficient (C.C.) values for different

Diatom community dynamics in a tropical, monsoon-influenced environment: West coast of India

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

DeCosta, P.M.; Anil, A.C.

Diatom communities are influenced by environmental perturbations, such as the monsoon system that impact the niche opportunities of species. To discern the influence of the monsoon system on diatom community structure, we sampled during two...

Response of the Asian summer monsoons to idealized precession and obliquity forcing in a set of GCMs

Science.gov (United States)

Bosmans, J. H. C.; Erb, M. P.; Dolan, A. M.; Drijfhout, S. S.; Tuenter, E.; Hilgen, F. J.; Edge, D.; Pope, J. O.; Lourens, L. J.

2018-05-01

We examine the response of the Indian and East Asian summer monsoons to separate precession and obliquity forcing, using a set of fully coupled high-resolution models for the first time: EC-Earth, GFDL CM2.1, CESM and HadCM3. We focus on the effect of insolation changes on monsoon precipitation and underlying circulation changes, and find strong model agreement despite a range of model physics, parameterization, and resolution. Our results show increased summer monsoon precipitation at times of increased summer insolation, i.e. minimum precession and maximum obliquity, accompanied by a redistribution of precipitation and convection from ocean to land. Southerly monsoon winds over East Asia are strengthened as a consequence of an intensified land-sea pressure gradient. The response of the Indian summer monsoon is less straightforward. Over south-east Asia low surface pressure is less pronounced and winds over the northern Indian Ocean are directed more westward. An Indian Ocean Dipole pattern emerges, with increased precipitation and convection over the western Indian Ocean. Increased temperatures occur during minimum precession over the Indian Ocean, but not during maximum obliquity when insolation is reduced over the tropics and southern hemisphere during northern hemisphere summer. Evaporation is reduced over the northern Indian Ocean, which together with increased precipitation over the western Indian Ocean dampens the increase of monsoonal precipitation over the continent. The southern tropical Indian Ocean as well as the western tropical Pacific (for precession) act as a moisture source for enhanced monsoonal precipitation. The models are in closest agreement for precession-induced changes, with more model spread for obliquity-induced changes, possibly related to a smaller insolation forcing. Our results indicate that a direct response of the Indian and East Asian summer monsoons to insolation forcing is possible, in line with speleothem records but in

Asian summer monsoon prediction in ECMWF System 4 and NCEP CFSv2 retrospective seasonal forecasts

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, Hye-Mi; Webster, Peter J.; Curry, Judith A.; Toma, Violeta E. [Georgia Institute of Technology, School of Earth and Atmospheric Science, Atlanta, GA (United States)

2012-12-15

The seasonal prediction skill of the Asian summer monsoon is assessed using retrospective predictions (1982-2009) from the ECMWF System 4 (SYS4) and NCEP CFS version 2 (CFSv2) seasonal prediction systems. In both SYS4 and CFSv2, a cold bias of sea-surface temperature (SST) is found over the equatorial Pacific, North Atlantic, Indian Oceans and over a broad region in the Southern Hemisphere relative to observations. In contrast, a warm bias is found over the northern part of North Pacific and North Atlantic. Excessive precipitation is found along the ITCZ, equatorial Atlantic, equatorial Indian Ocean and the maritime continent. The southwest monsoon flow and the Somali Jet are stronger in SYS4, while the south-easterly trade winds over the tropical Indian Ocean, the Somali Jet and the subtropical northwestern Pacific high are weaker in CFSv2 relative to the reanalysis. In both systems, the prediction of SST, precipitation and low-level zonal wind has greatest skill in the tropical belt, especially over the central and eastern Pacific where the influence of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is dominant. Both modeling systems capture the global monsoon and the large-scale monsoon wind variability well, while at the same time performing poorly in simulating monsoon precipitation. The Asian monsoon prediction skill increases with the ENSO amplitude, although the models simulate an overly strong impact of ENSO on the monsoon. Overall, the monsoon predictive skill is lower than the ENSO skill in both modeling systems but both systems show greater predictive skill compared to persistence. (orig.)

Glacial to Holocene swings of the Australian-Indonesian monsoon

Science.gov (United States)

Mohtadi, Mahyar; Oppo, Delia W.; Steinke, Stephan; Stuut, Jan-Berend W.; de Pol-Holz, Ricardo; Hebbeln, Dierk; Lückge, Andreas

2011-08-01

The Australian-Indonesian monsoon is an important component of the climate system in the tropical Indo-Pacific region. However, its past variability, relation with northern and southern high-latitude climate and connection to the other Asian monsoon systems are poorly understood. Here we present high-resolution records of monsoon-controlled austral winter upwelling during the past 22,000 years, based on planktic foraminiferal oxygen isotopes and faunal composition in a sedimentary archive collected offshore southern Java. We show that glacial-interglacial variations in the Australian-Indonesian winter monsoon were in phase with the Indian summer monsoon system, consistent with their modern linkage through cross-equatorial surface winds. Likewise, millennial-scale variability of upwelling shares similar sign and timing with upwelling variability in the Arabian Sea. On the basis of element composition and grain-size distribution as precipitation-sensitive proxies in the same archive, we infer that (austral) summer monsoon rainfall was highest during the Bølling-Allerød period and the past 2,500 years. Our results indicate drier conditions during Heinrich Stadial 1 due to a southward shift of summer rainfall and a relatively weak Hadley cell south of the Equator. We suggest that the Australian-Indonesian summer and winter monsoon variability were closely linked to summer insolation and abrupt climate changes in the northern hemisphere.

What drives the global summer monsoon over the past millennium?

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Liu, Jian [Chinese Academy of Sciences, State Key Laboratory of Lake Science and Environment, Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Nanjing (China); Wang, Bin [University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Meteorology, Honolulu, HI (United States); University of Hawaii at Manoa, International Pacific Research Center, Honolulu, HI (United States); Yim, So-Young; Lee, June-Yi [University of Hawaii at Manoa, International Pacific Research Center, Honolulu, HI (United States); Jhun, Jong-Ghap [Seoul National University, School of Earth and Environmental Sciences/Research Institute of Oceanography, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Ha, Kyung-Ja [Pusan National University, Division of Earth Environmental System, Busan (Korea, Republic of)

2012-09-15

The global summer monsoon precipitation (GSMP) provides a fundamental measure for changes in the annual cycle of the climate system and hydroclimate. We investigate mechanisms governing decadal-centennial variations of the GSMP over the past millennium with a coupled climate model's (ECHO-G) simulation forced by solar-volcanic (SV) radiative forcing and greenhouse gases (GHG) forcing. We show that the leading mode of GSMP is a forced response to external forcing on centennial time scale with a globally uniform change of precipitation across all monsoon regions, whereas the second mode represents internal variability on multi-decadal time scale with regional characteristics. The total amount of GSMP varies in phase with the global mean temperature, indicating that global warming is accompanied by amplification of the annual cycle of the climate system. The northern hemisphere summer monsoon precipitation (NHSMP) responds to GHG forcing more sensitively, while the southern hemisphere summer monsoon precipitation (SHSMP) responds to the SV radiative forcing more sensitively. The NHSMP is enhanced by increased NH land-ocean thermal contrast and NH-minus-SH thermal contrast. On the other hand, the SHSMP is strengthened by enhanced SH subtropical highs and the east-west mass contrast between Southeast Pacific and tropical Indian Ocean. The strength of the GSMP is determined by the factors controlling both the NHSMP and SHSMP. Intensification of GSMP is associated with (a) increased global land-ocean thermal contrast, (b) reinforced east-west mass contrast between Southeast Pacific and tropical Indian Ocean, and (c) enhanced circumglobal SH subtropical highs. The physical mechanisms revealed here will add understanding of future change of the global monsoon. (orig.)

The Glacial-Interglacial summer monsoon recorded in southwest Sulawesi speleothems: Evidence for sea level thresholds driving tropical monsoon strength

Science.gov (United States)

Kimbrough, A. K.; Gagan, M. K.; Dunbar, G. B.; Krause, C.; Di Nezio, P. N.; Hantoro, W. S.; Cheng, H.; Edwards, R. L.; Shen, C. C.; Sun, H.; Cai, B.; Rifai, H.

2016-12-01

Southwest Sulawesi lies within the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool (IPWP), at the center of atmospheric convection for two of the largest circulation cells on the planet, the meridional Hadley Cell and zonal Indo-Pacific Walker Circulation. Due to the geographic coincidence of these circulation cells, southwest Sulawesi serves as a hotspot for changes in tropical Pacific climate variability and Australian-Indonesian summer monsoon (AISM) strength over glacial-interglacial (G-I) timescales. The work presented here spans 386 - 127 ky BP, including glacial terminations IV ( 340 ky BP) and both phases of TIII (TIII 248 ky BP and TIIIa 217 ky BP). This record, along with previous work from southwest Sulawesi spanning the last 40 kyr, reveals coherent climatic features over three complete G-I cycles. The multi-stalagmite Sulawesi speleothem δ18O record demonstrates that on G-I timescales, the strength of the AISM is most sensitive to changes in sea level and its impact on the regional distribution of land and shallow ocean. Stalagmite δ18O and trace element (Mg/Ca) data indicate a rapid increase in rainfall at glacial terminations and wet interglacials. TIV, TIII, TIIIa, and TI are each characterized by an abrupt 3‰ decrease in δ18O that coincides with sea level rise and flooding of the Sunda and Sahul shelves. Strong evidence for a sea level (flooding/exposure) threshold is found throughout the southwest Sulawesi record. This is most clearly demonstrated over the period 230 - 212 ky BP (MIS 7d-7c), when a sea level fall to only -80 to -60 m for 10 kyr results in a weakened AISM and glacial conditions, followed by a full termination. Taken together, both glaciations and glacial terminations imply a sea level threshold driving the AISM between two primary levels of intensity (`interglacial' & `glacial'). These massive, sea-level driven shifts in AISM strength are superimposed on precession-scale variability associated with boreal fall insolation at the equator, indicating

Asian Eocene monsoons as revealed by leaf architectural signatures

Science.gov (United States)

Spicer, Robert A.; Yang, Jian; Herman, Alexei B.; Kodrul, Tatiana; Maslova, Natalia; Spicer, Teresa E. V.; Aleksandrova, Galina; Jin, Jianhua

2016-09-01

The onset and development of the Asian monsoon systems is a topic that has attracted considerable research effort but proxy data limitations, coupled with a diversity of definitions and metrics characterizing monsoon phenomena, have generated much debate. Failure of geological proxies to yield metrics capable of distinguishing between rainfall seasonality induced by migrations of the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) from that attributable to topographically modified seasonal pressure reversals has frustrated attempts to understand mechanisms underpinning monsoon development and dynamics. Here we circumvent the use of such single climate parameter metrics in favor of detecting directly the distinctive attributes of different monsoon regimes encoded in leaf fossils. Leaf form adapts to the prevailing climate, particularly under the extreme seasonal stresses imposed by monsoons, so it is likely that fossil leaves carry a unique signature of past monsoon regimes. Leaf form trait spectra obtained from fossils from Eocene basins in southern China were compared with those seen in modern leaves growing under known climate regimes. The fossil leaf trait spectra, including those derived from previously published fossil floras from northwestern India, were most similar to those found in vegetation exposed to the modern Indonesia-Australia Monsoon (I-AM), which is largely a product of seasonal migrations of the ITCZ. The presence of this distinctive leaf physiognomic signature suggests that although a monsoon climate existed in Eocene time across southern Asia the characteristics of the modern topographically-enhanced South Asia Monsoon had yet to develop. By the Eocene leaves in South Asia had become well adapted to an I-AM type regime across many taxa and points to the existence of a pervasive monsoon climate prior to the Eocene. No fossil trait spectra typical of exposure to the modern East Asia monsoon were seen, suggesting the effects of this system in southern

Dynamical linkage of tropical and subtropical weather systems to the intraseasonal oscillations of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall. Part II: Simulations in the ENSEMBLES project

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ma, Shujie [Institut Catala de Ciencies del Clima (IC3), Barcelona, Catalonia (Spain); Rodo, Xavier [Institut Catala de Ciencies del Clima (IC3), Barcelona, Catalonia (Spain); Institut Catala de Recerca i Estudis Avancats (ICREA), Barcelona, Catalonia (Spain); Song, Yongjia [Georgia Institute of Technology, School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Atlanta, GA (United States); Cash, Benjamin A. [Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, MD (United States)

2012-09-15

We assess the ability of individual models (single-model ensembles) and the multi-model ensemble (MME) in the European Union-funded ENSEMBLES project to simulate the intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs; specifically in 10-20-day and 30-50-day frequency bands) of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) over the Western Ghats (WG) and the Bay of Bengal (BoB), respectively. This assessment is made on the basis of the dynamical linkages identified from the analysis of observations in a companion study to this work. In general, all models show reasonable skill in simulating the active and break cycles of the 30-50-day ISOs over the Indian summer monsoon region. This skill is closely associated with the proper reproduction of both the northward propagation of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and the variations of monsoon circulation in this band. However, the models do not manage to correctly simulate the eastward propagation of the 30-50-day ISOs in the western/central tropical Pacific and the eastward extension of the ITCZ in a northwest to southeast tilt. This limitation is closely associated with a limited capacity of models to accurately reproduce the magnitudes of intraseasonal anomalies of both the ITCZ in the Asian tropical summer monsoon regions and trade winds in the tropical Pacific. Poor reproduction of the activity of the western Pacific subtropical high on intraseasonal time scales also amplify this limitation. Conversely, the models make good reproduction of the WG 10-20-day ISOs. This success is closely related to good performance of the models in the representation of the northward propagation of the ITCZ, which is partially promoted by local air-sea interactions in the Indian Ocean in this higher-frequency band. Although the feature of westward propagation is generally represented in the simulated BoB 10-20-day ISOs, the air-sea interactions in the Indian Ocean are spuriously active in the models. This leads to active WG rainfall, which is not

Variations in phytoplankton community in a monsoon-influenced tropical estuary

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Patil, J.S.; Anil, A.C.

. The break period in monsoon altered the phytoplankton community leading to mixed species bloom of large-sized diatoms and harmful dinoflagellates (Gymnodinium catenatum and Cochlodinium polykrikoides) under high-saline, nutrient-poor, non...

The crucial role of ocean-atmosphere coupling on the Indian monsoon anomalous response during dipole events

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Krishnan, R.; Swapna, P.; Ayantika, D.C.; Mujumdar, M. [Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Climate and Global Modelling Division, Pune (India); Sundaram, Suchithra [Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Climate and Global Modelling Division, Pune (India); Universite Catholique de Louvain, Institut d' Astronomie de Geophysique G. Lemaitre, Louvain-La-Neuve (Belgium); Kumar, Vinay [Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Climate and Global Modelling Division, Pune (India); Florida State University, Department of Meteorology, Tallahassee, FL (United States)

2011-07-15

This paper examines an issue concerning the simulation of anomalously wet Indian summer monsoons like 1994 which co-occurred with strong positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions in the tropical Indian Ocean. Contrary to observations it has been noticed that standalone atmospheric general circulation models (AGCM) forced with observed SST boundary condition, consistently depicted a decrease of the summer monsoon rainfall during 1994 over the Indian region. Given the ocean-atmosphere coupling during IOD events, we have examined whether the failure of standalone AGCM simulations in capturing wet Indian monsoons like 1994 can be remedied by including a simple form of coupling that allows the monsoon circulation to dynamically interact with the IOD anomalies. With this view, we have performed a suite of simulations by coupling an AGCM to a slab-ocean model with spatially varying mixed-layer-depth (MLD) specified from observations for the 1994 IOD; as well as four other cases (1983, 1997, 2006, 2007). The specification of spatially varying MLD from observations allows us to constrain the model to observed IOD conditions. It is seen that the inclusion of coupling significantly improves the large-scale circulation response by strengthening the monsoon cross-equatorial flow; leading to precipitation enhancement over the subcontinent and rainfall decrease over south-eastern tropical Indian Ocean - in a manner broadly consistent with observations. A plausible physical mechanism is suggested to explain the monsoonal response in the coupled frame-work. These results warrant the need for improved monsoon simulations with fully coupled models to be able to better capture the observed monsoon interannual variability. (orig.)

Seasonally asymmetric transition of the Asian monsoon in response to ice age boundary conditions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ueda, Hiroaki; Kuroki, Harumitsu; Kamae, Youichi [University of Tsukuba, Graduate School of Life and Environmental Sciences, Tsukuba, Ibaraki (Japan); Ohba, Masamichi [Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry, Environmental Science Research Laboratory, Abiko (Japan)

2011-12-15

Modulation of a monsoon under glacial forcing is examined using an atmosphere-ocean coupled general circulation model (AOGCM) following the specifications established by Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project phase 2 (PMIP2) to understand the air-sea-land interaction under different climate forcing. Several sensitivity experiments are performed in response to individual changes in the continental ice sheet, orbital parameters, and sea surface temperature (SST) in the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM: 21 ka) to evaluate the driving mechanisms for the anomalous seasonal evolution of the monsoon. Comparison of the model results in the LGM with the pre-industrial (PI) simulation shows that the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal are characterized by enhancement of pre-monsoon convection despite a drop in the SST encompassing the globe, while the rainfall is considerably suppressed in the subsequent monsoon period. In the LGM winter relative to the PI, anomalies in the meridional temperature gradient (MTG) between the Asian continents minus the tropical oceans become positive and are consistent with the intensified pre-monsoon circulation. The enhanced MTG anomalies can be explained by a decrease in the condensation heating relevant to the suppressed tropical convection as well as positive insolation anomalies in the higher latitude, showing an opposing view to a warmer future climate. It is also evident that a latitudinal gradient in the SST across the equator plays an important role in the enhancement of pre-monsoon rainfall. As for the summer, the sensitivity experiments imply that two ice sheets over the northern hemisphere cools the air temperature over the Asian continent, which is consistent with the reduction of MTG involved in the attenuated monsoon. The surplus pre-monsoon convection causes a decrease in the SST through increased heat loss from the ocean surface; in other words, negative ocean feedback is also responsible for the subsequent weakening of summer

Water vapor stable isotope observations from tropical Australia

KAUST Repository

Parkes, Stephen; Deutscher, Nicholas; Griffith, David; McCabe, Matthew

2015-01-01

retrievals from the co-located Total Column Carbon Observing Network (TCCON) site at Darwin in Tropical Australia. The Darwin site is interestingly placed within the tropical western pacific region and is impacted upon by a clear monsoonal climate, and key

Difference in the influence of Indo-Pacific Ocean heat content on South Asian Summer Monsoon intensity before and after 1976/1977

Science.gov (United States)

Dong, Yujie; Feng, Junqiao; Hu, Dunxin

2016-05-01

Monthly ocean temperature from ORAS4 datasets and atmospheric data from NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis I/II were used to analyze the relationship between the intensity of the South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) and upper ocean heat content (HC) in the tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean. The monsoon was differentiated into a Southwest Asian Summer Monsoon (SWASM) (2.5°-20°N, 35°-70°E) and Southeast Asian Summer Monsoon (SEASM) (2.5°-20°N, 70°-110°E). Results show that before the 1976/77 climate shift, the SWASM was strongly related to HC in the southern Indian Ocean and tropical Pacific Ocean. The southern Indian Ocean affected SWASM by altering the pressure gradient between southern Africa and the northern Indian Ocean and by enhancing the Somali cross-equatorial flow. The tropical Pacific impacted the SWASM through the remote forcing of ENSO. After the 1976/77 shift, there was a close relationship between equatorial central Pacific HC and the SEASM. However, before that shift, their relationship was weak.

Strong carbon sink of monsoon tropical seasonal forest in Southern Vietnam

Science.gov (United States)

Deshcherevskaya, Olga; Anichkin, Alexandr; Avilov, Vitaly; Duy Dinh, Ba; Luu Do, Phong; Huan Tran, Cong; Kurbatova, Julia

2014-05-01

Comparison between anthropogenic emission of carbon dioxide and atmospheric carbon pool change displays that only half of emitted CO2 remains in air, leaving so-called 'missing sink' of carbon. Terrestrial biosphere and ocean accumulate each about a half of this value (Gifford, 1994). Forest biomes play the decisive role in 'missing sink' because of high primary production flux and large carbon pool. Almost all the sink belongs to boreal forests, because warming and wetting coupled with increasing CO2 concentration and N deposition gives more favorable conditions for boreal ecosystems. On the contrary, tropical climate changes effect on forests is not obvious, probably cause more drought conditions; tropical forests suffer from 1.2 % per year area reduction and disturbance. Whether primary tropical forests act as carbon sink is still unclear. Biomass inventories at 146 forest plots across all the tropics in 1987-1997 revealed low carbon sink in humid forests biomass of 49 (29-66; 95% C.I.) g C m-2 year-1 on average (Malhi, 2010). Estimates for undisturbed African forests are close to global (Ciais et al., 2008). Eddy covariance (EC) observations with weak-turbulence correction in Amazonia reveal near-zero or small negative (i.e. sink) balance (Clark, 2004). Three EC sites in SE Asia primary forests give near-zero balance again (Saigusa et al., 2008; Kosugi et al., 2012). There are two main groups of explanations of moderate tropical carbon sink: (a) recovering of large-disturbance in the past or (b) response to current atmospheric changes: increase of CO2 concentration and/or climate change. So, strong carbon accumulation is not common for primary tropical forests. In this context sink of 402 g C m-2 in 2012 at EC station of Nam Cat Tien (NCT), Southern Vietnam (N 11°27', E 107°24', 134 m a.s.l.) in primary monsoon tropical forest looks questionably. EC instrument set at NCT consists of CSAT3 sonic anemometer and LI-7500A open-path gas analyzer. All the standard

Teleconnections of the tropical Atlantic to the tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans. A review of recent findings

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wang Chunzai [NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Lab., Miami, FL (United States); Kucharski, Fred; Barimalala, Rondrotiana [The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Earth System Physics, Section Trieste (Italy); Bracco, Annalisa [School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Georgia, Inst. of Tech., Atlanta, GA (United States)

2009-08-15

Recent studies found that tropical Atlantic variability may affect the climate in both the tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean basins, possibly modulating the Indian summer monsoon and Pacific ENSO events. A warm tropical Atlantic Ocean forces a Gill-Matsuno-type quadrupole response with a low-level anticyclone located over India that weakens the Indian monsoon circulation, and vice versa for a cold tropical Atlantic Ocean. The tropical Atlantic Ocean can also induce changes in the Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures (SSTs). especially along the coast of Africa and in the western side of the Indian basin. Additionally, it can influence the tropical Pacific Ocean via an atmospheric teleconnection that is associated with the Atlantic Walker circulation. Although the Pacific El Nino does not contemporaneously correlate with the Atlantic Nino, anomalous warming or cooling of the two equatorial oceans can form an inter-basin SST gradient that induces surface zonal wind anomalies over equatorial South America and other regions in both ocean basins. The zonal wind anomalies act as a bridge linking the two ocean basins, and in turn reinforce the inter-basin SST gradient through the atmospheric Walker circulation and oceanic processes. Thus, a positive feedback seems to exist for climate variability of the tropical Pacific-Atlantic Oceans and atmospheric system, in which the inter-basin SST gradient is coupled to the overlying atmospheric wind. (orig.)

Tropical tele-connections to the Mediterranean climate and weather

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

P. Alpert

2005-01-01

Full Text Available Some strong natural fluctuations of climate in the Eastern Mediterranean (EM region are shown to be connected to the major tropical systems. Potential relations between EM rainfall extremes to tropical systems, e.g. El Niño, Indian Monsoon and hurricanes, are demonstrated. For a specific event, high resolution modelling of the severe flood on 3-5 December 2001 in Israel suggests a relation to hurricane Olga. In order to understand the factors governing the EM climate variability in the summer season, the relationship between extreme summer temperatures and the Indian Monsoon was examined. Other tropical factors like the Red-Sea Trough system and the Saharan dust are also likely to contribute to the EM climate variability.

The effect of El-Niño on South Asian Monsoon and agricultural production

Science.gov (United States)

Mukherjee, A.

2015-12-01

Mukherjee A, Wang S.Y.Abstract:The South Asian Monsoon has a prominent and significant impact on South Asian countries like India, Bangladesh, Nepal, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and it is one of the most studied phenomena in the world. The monsoon is historically known to be influenced by El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The inter-annual and inter-decadal variability of seasonal precipitation over India strongly depends upon the ENSO phasing. The average southwest monsoon rainfall received during the years with El Niño was found to be less compared to normal years and the average rainfall during the northeast monsoon is higher in coastal Andhra Pradesh. ENSO is anti-correlated with Indian summer monsoon (ISM). The last prominent effect of ENSO on India's monsoon occurred in 2009 with 23% reduction in annual rainfall, reducing summer sown crops such as rice, sugar cane etc. and pushing up food prices. Climatic resources endowment plays a major role in planning agricultural production in tropical and sub-tropical environment especially under rain-fed agriculture, and so contingent crop planning drawn on this relationship would help to mitigate the effects of ENSO episodes in the region. The unexplored area in this domain of research is the changes in the frequency and intensity of ENSO due to global warming and its impact on ENSO prediction and agricultural management practices. We analyze the last 30 years datasets of Pacific SST, and precipitation and air temperature over Southeast Asia to examine the evolution of ENSO teleconnections with ISM, as well as making estimates of drought indices such as Palmer Drought Severity Index. This research can lead toward better crop management strategies in the South Asian monsoon region.

Future projection of mean and variability of the Asian Summer Monsoon and Indian Ocean Climate systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Annamalai, H. [Univ. of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI (United States)

2014-09-15

The overall goal of this project is to assess the ability of the CMIP3/5 models to simulate the Indian-Ocean monsoon systems. The PI along with post-docs investigated research issues ranging from synoptic systems to long-term trends over the Asian monsoon region. The PI applied diagnostic tools such as moist static energy (MSE) to isolate: the moist and radiative processes responsible for extended monsoon breaks over South Asia, precursors in the ENSO-monsoon association, reasons for the drying tendency over South Asia and the possible effect on tropical Indian Ocean climate anomalies influencing certain aspects of ENSO characteristics. By diagnosing various observations and coupled model simulations, we developed working hypothesis and tested them by carrying out sensitivity experiments with both linear and nonlinear models. Possible physical and dynamical reasons for model sensitivities were deduced. On the teleconnection front, the ability of CMIP5 models in representing the monsoon-desert mechanism was examined recently. Further more, we have applied a suite of diagnostics and have performed an in depth analysis on CMIP5 integrations to isolate the possible reasons for the ENSO-monsoon linkage or lack thereof. The PI has collaborated with Dr. K.R. Sperber of PCMDI and other CLIVAR Asian-Australian monsoon panel members in understanding the ability of CMIP3/5 models in capturing monsoon and its spectrum of variability. The objective and process-based diagnostics aided in selecting models that best represent the present-day monsoon and its variability that are then employed for future projections. Two major highlights were an invitation to write a review on present understanding monsoons in a changing climate in Nature Climate Change, and identification of an east-west shift in observed monsoon rainfall (more rainfall over tropical western Pacific and drying tendency over South Asia) in the last six decades and attributing that shift to SST rise over the tropical

Global warming and South Indian monsoon rainfall-lessons from the Mid-Miocene.

Science.gov (United States)

Reuter, Markus; Kern, Andrea K; Harzhauser, Mathias; Kroh, Andreas; Piller, Werner E

2013-04-01

Precipitation over India is driven by the Indian monsoon. Although changes in this atmospheric circulation are caused by the differential seasonal diabatic heating of Asia and the Indo-Pacific Ocean, it is so far unknown how global warming influences the monsoon rainfalls regionally. Herein, we present a Miocene pollen flora as the first direct proxy for monsoon over southern India during the Middle Miocene Climate Optimum. To identify climatic key parameters, such as mean annual temperature, warmest month temperature, coldest month temperature, mean annual precipitation, mean precipitation during the driest month, mean precipitation during the wettest month and mean precipitation during the warmest month the Coexistence Approach is applied. Irrespective of a ~ 3-4 °C higher global temperature during the Middle Miocene Climate Optimum, the results indicate a modern-like monsoonal precipitation pattern contrasting marine proxies which point to a strong decline of Indian monsoon in the Himalaya at this time. Therefore, the strength of monsoon rainfall in tropical India appears neither to be related to global warming nor to be linked with the atmospheric conditions over the Tibetan Plateau. For the future it implies that increased global warming does not necessarily entail changes in the South Indian monsoon rainfall.

Relevance of Indian Summer Monsoon and its Tropical Indo-Pacific Climate Drivers for the Kharif Crop Production

Science.gov (United States)

Amat, Hemadri Bhusan; Karumuri, Ashok

2017-12-01

While the Indian agriculture has earlier been dependent on the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR), a multifold increase in irrigation and storage facilities raise a question whether the ISMR is still as relevant. We revisit this question using the latest observational climate datasets as well as the crop production data and find that the ISMR is still relevant for the Kharif crop production (KCP). In addition, in the recent changes in the tropical Indo-Pacific driver evolutions and frequency, particularly more frequent occurrence of the ENSO Modokis in place of the canonical ENSOs, we carry out a correlation analysis to estimate the impact of the various Indo-Pacific climate drivers on the rainfall of individual Indian states for the period 1998-2013, for which crop production data for the most productive Indian states, namely West Bengal, Odisha, United Andhra Pradesh (UAP), Haryana, Punjab, Karnataka, Kerala, Madhya Pradesh, Bihar and Uttar Pradesh are available. The results suggest that the KCP of the respective states are significantly correlated with the summer monsoon rainfall at the 95-99% confidence levels. Importantly, we find that the NINO 3.4 and ENSO Modoki indices have a statistically significant correlation with the KCP of most of the Indian states, particularly in states such as UAP and Karnataka, through induction of anomalous local convergence/divergence, well beyond the equatorial Indian Ocean. The KCP of districts in UAP also has a significant response to all the climate drivers, having implication for prediction of local crop yield.

A lidar study of atmospheric aerosols during two contrasting monsoon seasons

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Devara, P.C.S.; Raj, P.E. [Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (India)

1998-10-01

The vertical profiles of the boundary-layer aerosols obtained with a bistatic argon ion lidar system at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune, India, during two contrasting, successive south-west (summer) monsoon seasons of 1987 (weak monsoon year) and 1988 (active monsoon year) have been examined. The concurrent meteorological parameters such as temperature, relative humidity and rainfall over Pune have also been studied. It is noticed that the aerosol columnar content (integration of vertical profile throughout the height range) is greater during the active monsoon months and less during the weak monsoon months. Thus the monsoon season total rainfall during 1987 and 1988, apart from other meteorological parameters, shows close correspondence with the aerosol columnar content over the experimental station. A brief description of the lidar experimental setup and the database is given. The observed association between the aerosol columnar content and the monsoon activity is explained in terms of the environmental and meteorological conditions prevailing over Pune. [Spanish] Los perfiles verticales de los aerosoles de la capa fronteriza obtenidos mediante un sistema de Lidar biestatico de iones de argon en el Instituto de Meteorologia Tropical (IITM) en Pune, India, durante dos estaciones contrastantes y suscesivas del monzon del SW (verano) de 1987 (ano de monzon debil) y 1988 (ano activo de monzon) han sido estudiados. Los parametros meteorologicos concurrentes tales como temperatura, humedad relativa y lluvia en Pune, han sido tambien estudiados. Se observa que el contenido columnar de aerosoles (integracion del perfil vertical en toda la gama de alturas) es mayor durante los meses del monzon activo y menor en los meses del monzon debil. De manera que, el total de la lluvia monzonica durante 1987 y 1988, aparte de otros parametros meteorologicos, muestran una correspondencia intima con el contenido columnar de a erosoles sobre la estacion

Response of the Asian summer monsoon to changes in El Niño properties

Science.gov (United States)

Annamalai, H.; Liu, P.

2005-04-01

Diagnostics from observed precipitation and National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research re-analysis products reveal that after the 1976-77 climate shift in the Pacific there was a dramatic change in the response of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) to El Niño, particularly during the months of July and August. Based on 1950-75 (PRE76) and 1977-2001 (POST76) El Niño composites: the western North Pacific monsoon (WNPM) was stronger than normal in both periods; the ISM was weaker than normal during the entire monsoon season in PRE76, but in POST76 was weaker only during the onset and withdrawal phases. In terms of observed sea surface temperature (SST) during July-August, the major differences between the two periods are the presence of cold SST anomalies over the Indo-Pacific warm pool and the intensity of warm SST anomalies in the central Pacific in POST76. The effect of these differences on the ISM is investigated in a suite of experiments with an Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) that has a realistic monsoon precipitation climatology.Separate ten-member ensemble simulations with the AGCM were conducted for PRE76 and POST76 El Niño events with SST anomalies inserted as follows: (i) tropical Indo-Pacific (TIP), (ii) tropical Pacific only (TPO), and (iii) tropical Indian Ocean only (TIO). Qualitatively, TPO solutions reproduce the observed differences in the monsoon response in both periods. Specifically, during July-August of POST76 the cold SST anomalies in conjunction with remote subsidence suppress precipitation (3-5 mm day-1) over the maritime continent and equatorial central Indian Ocean. Inclusion of Indian Ocean SST anomalies in the TIP runs further suppresses precipitation over the entire equatorial Indian Ocean. The low-level anticyclonic circulation anomalies that develop as a Rossby-wave response to these convective anomalies increase the south-westerlies over the northern Indian Ocean, and favour a

Congruent biogeographical disjunctions at a continent-wide scale: Quantifying and clarifying the role of biogeographic barriers in the Australian tropics

Science.gov (United States)

Crisp, Michael D.; Cook, Dianne H.; Cook, Lyn G.

2017-01-01

Aim To test whether novel and previously hypothesized biogeogaphic barriers in the Australian Tropics represent significant disjunction points or hard barriers, or both, to the distribution of plants. Location Australian tropics: Australian Monsoon Tropics and Australian Wet Tropics. Methods The presence or absence of 6,861 plant species was scored across 13 putative biogeographic barriers in the Australian Tropics, including two that have not previously been recognised. Randomizations of these data were used to test whether more species showed disjunctions (gaps in distribution) or likely barriers (range limits) at these points than expected by chance. Results Two novel disjunctions in the Australian Tropics flora are identified in addition to eleven putative barriers previously recognized for animals. Of these, eleven disjunction points (all within the Australian Monsoon Tropics) were found to correspond to range-ending barriers to a significant number of species, while neither of the two disjunctions found within the Australian Wet Tropics limited a significant number of species’ ranges. Main conclusions Biogeographic barriers present significant distributional limits to native plant species in the Australian Monsoon Tropics but not in the Australian Wet Tropics. PMID:28376094

Atmospheric circulation characteristics associated with the onset of Asian summer monsoon

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Chongyin; Pan, Jing

2006-12-01

The onset of the Asian summer monsoon has been a focus in the monsoon study for many years. In this paper, we study the variability and predictability of the Asian summer monsoon onset and demonstrate that this onset is associated with specific atmospheric circulation characteristics. The outbreak of the Asian summer monsoon is found to occur first over the southwestern part of the South China Sea (SCS) and the Malay Peninsula region, and the monsoon onset is closely related to intra-seasonal oscillations in the lower atmosphere. These intra-seasonal oscillations consist of two low-frequency vortex pairs, one located to the east of the Philippines and the other over the tropical eastern Indian Ocean. Prior to the Asian summer monsoon onset, a strong low-frequency westerly emerges over the equatorial Indian Ocean and the low-frequency vortex pair develops symmetrically along the equator. The formation and evolution of these low-frequency vortices are important and serve as a good indicator for the Asian summer monsoon onset. The relationship between the northward jumps of the westerly jet over East Asia and the Asian summer monsoon onset over SCS is investigated. It is shown that the northward jump of the westerly jet occurs twice during the transition from winter to summer and these jumps are closely related to the summer monsoon development. The first northward jump (from 25° 28°N to around 30°N) occurs on 8 May on average, about 7 days ahead of the summer monsoon onset over the SCS. It is found that the reverse of meridional temperature gradient in the upper-middle troposphere (500 200 hPa) and the enhancement and northward movement of the subtropical jet in the Southern Hemispheric subtropics are responsible for the first northward jump of the westerly jet.

Fine particulate matter in the tropical environment: monsoonal effects, source apportionment, and health risk assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Khan, M. F.; Latif, M. T.; Saw, W. H.; Amil, N.; Nadzir, M. S. M.; Sahani, M.; Tahir, N. M.; Chung, J. X.

2016-01-01

The health implications of PM2.5 in the tropical region of Southeast Asia (SEA) are significant as PM2.5 can pose serious health concerns. PM2.5 concentration and sources here are strongly influenced by changes in the monsoon regime from the south-west quadrant to the north-east quadrant in the region. In this work, PM2.5 samples were collected at a semi-urban area using a high-volume air sampler at different seasons on 24 h basis. Analysis of trace elements and water-soluble ions was performed using inductively coupled plasma mass spectroscopy (ICP-MS) and ion chromatography (IC), respectively. Apportionment analysis of PM2.5 was carried out using the United States Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA) positive matrix factorization (PMF) 5.0 and a mass closure model. We quantitatively characterized the health risks posed to human populations through the inhalation of selected heavy metals in PM2.5. 48 % of the samples collected exceeded the World Health Organization (WHO) 24 h PM2.5 guideline but only 19 % of the samples exceeded 24 h US EPA National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS). The PM2.5 concentration was slightly higher during the north-east monsoon compared to south-west monsoon. The main trace metals identified were As, Pb, Cd, Ni, Mn, V, and Cr while the main ions were SO42-, NO3-, NH4+, and Na. The mass closure model identified four major sources of PM2.5 that account for 55 % of total mass balance. The four sources are mineral matter (MIN) (35 %), secondary inorganic aerosol (SIA) (11 %), sea salt (SS) (7 %), and trace elements (TE) (2 %). PMF 5.0 elucidated five potential sources: motor vehicle emissions coupled with biomass burning (31 %) were the most dominant, followed by marine/sulfate aerosol (20 %), coal burning (19 %), nitrate aerosol (17 %), and mineral/road dust (13 %). The hazard quotient (HQ) for four selected metals (Pb, As, Cd, and Ni) in PM2.5 mass was highest in PM2.5 mass from the coal burning source and least in PM2.5 mass

On the shortening of Indian summer monsoon season in a warming scenario

Science.gov (United States)

Sabeerali, C. T.; Ajayamohan, R. S.

2018-03-01

Assessing the future projections of the length of rainy season (LRS) has paramount societal impact considering its potential to alter the seasonal mean rainfall over the Indian subcontinent. Here, we explored the projections of LRS using both historical and Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 (RCP8.5) simulations of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase5 (CMIP5). RCP8.5 simulations project shortening of the LRS of Indian summer monsoon by altering the timing of onset and withdrawal dates. Most CMIP5 RCP8.5 model simulations indicate a faster warming rate over the western tropical Indian Ocean compared to other regions of the Indian Ocean. It is found that the pronounced western Indian Ocean warming and associated increase in convection results in warmer upper troposphere over the Indian Ocean compared to the Indian subcontinent, reducing the meridional gradient in upper tropospheric temperature (UTT) over the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) domain. The weakening of the meridional gradient in UTT induces weakening of easterly vertical wind shear over the ASM domain during first and last phase of monsoon, facilitate delayed (advanced) monsoon onset (withdrawal) dates, ensues the shortening of LRS of the Indian summer monsoon in a warming scenario.

Recent change of the global monsoon precipitation (1979-2008)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wang, Bin [University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Meteorology, Honolulu, HI (United States); University of Hawaii at Manoa, International Pacific Research Center, Honolulu, HI (United States); Liu, Jian [Chinese Academy of Sciences, State Key Laboratory of Lake Science and Environment, Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Nanjing (China); Kim, Hyung-Jin [Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Research Institute for Global Change, Yokohama, Kanagawa (Japan); Webster, Peter J. [Georgia Institute of Technology, School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Atlanta, GA (United States); Yim, So-Young [University of Hawaii at Manoa, International Pacific Research Center, Honolulu, HI (United States)

2012-09-15

The global monsoon (GM) is a defining feature of the annual variation of Earth's climate system. Quantifying and understanding the present-day monsoon precipitation change are crucial for prediction of its future and reflection of its past. Here we show that regional monsoons are coordinated not only by external solar forcing but also by internal feedback processes such as El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). From one monsoon year (May to the next April) to the next, most continental monsoon regions, separated by vast areas of arid trade winds and deserts, vary in a cohesive manner driven by ENSO. The ENSO has tighter regulation on the northern hemisphere summer monsoon (NHSM) than on the southern hemisphere summer monsoon (SHSM). More notably, the GM precipitation (GMP) has intensified over the past three decades mainly due to the significant upward trend in NHSM. The intensification of the GMP originates primarily from an enhanced east-west thermal contrast in the Pacific Ocean, which is coupled with a rising pressure in the subtropical eastern Pacific and decreasing pressure over the Indo-Pacific warm pool. While this mechanism tends to amplify both the NHSM and SHSM, the stronger (weaker) warming trend in the NH (SH) creates a hemispheric thermal contrast, which favors intensification of the NHSM but weakens the SHSM. The enhanced Pacific zonal thermal contrast is largely a result of natural variability, whilst the enhanced hemispherical thermal contrast is likely due to anthropogenic forcing. We found that the enhanced global summer monsoon not only amplifies the annual cycle of tropical climate but also promotes directly a ''wet-gets-wetter'' trend pattern and indirectly a ''dry-gets-drier'' trend pattern through coupling with deserts and trade winds. The mechanisms recognized in this study suggest a way forward for understanding past and future changes of the GM in terms of its driven mechanisms. (orig.)

Diversification and persistence at the arid-monsoonal interface: australia-wide biogeography of the Bynoe's gecko (Heteronotia binoei; Gekkonidae).

Science.gov (United States)

Fujita, Matthew K; McGuire, Jimmy A; Donnellan, Stephen C; Moritz, Craig

2010-08-01

Late Neogene aridification in the Southern Hemisphere caused contractions of mesic biota to refugia, similar to the patterns established by glaciation in the Northern Hemisphere, but these episodes also opened up new adaptive zones that spurred range expansion and diversification in arid-adapted lineages. To understand these dynamics, we present a multilocus (nine nuclear introns, one mitochondrial gene) phylogeographic analysis of the Bynoe's gecko (Heteronotia binoei), a widely distributed complex spanning the tropical monsoon, coastal woodland, and arid zone biomes in Australia. Bayesian phylogenetic analyses, estimates of divergence times, and demographic inferences revealed episodes of diversification in the Pliocene, especially in the tropical monsoon biome, and range expansions in the Pleistocene. Ancestral habitat reconstructions strongly support recent and independent invasions into the arid zone. Our study demonstrates the varied responses to aridification in Australia, including localized persistence of lineages in the tropical monsoonal biome, and repeated invasion of and expansion through newly available arid-zone habitats. These patterns are consistent with those found in other arid environments in the Southern Hemisphere, including the South African succulent karoo and the Chilean lowlands, and highlight the diverse modes of diversification and persistence of Earth's biota during the glacial cycles of the Pliocene and Pleistocene.

Indian Ocean and Indian summer monsoon: relationships without ENSO in ocean-atmosphere coupled simulations

Science.gov (United States)

Crétat, Julien; Terray, Pascal; Masson, Sébastien; Sooraj, K. P.; Roxy, Mathew Koll

2017-08-01

The relationship between the Indian Ocean and the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) and their respective influence over the Indo-Western North Pacific (WNP) region are examined in the absence of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in two partially decoupled global experiments. ENSO is removed by nudging the tropical Pacific simulated sea surface temperature (SST) toward SST climatology from either observations or a fully coupled control run. The control reasonably captures the observed relationships between ENSO, ISM and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). Despite weaker amplitude, IODs do exist in the absence of ENSO and are triggered by a boreal spring ocean-atmosphere coupled mode over the South-East Indian Ocean similar to that found in the presence of ENSO. These pure IODs significantly affect the tropical Indian Ocean throughout boreal summer, inducing a significant modulation of both the local Walker and Hadley cells. This meridional circulation is masked in the presence of ENSO. However, these pure IODs do not significantly influence the Indian subcontinent rainfall despite overestimated SST variability in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean compared to observations. On the other hand, they promote a late summer cross-equatorial quadrupole rainfall pattern linking the tropical Indian Ocean with the WNP, inducing important zonal shifts of the Walker circulation despite the absence of ENSO. Surprisingly, the interannual ISM rainfall variability is barely modified and the Indian Ocean does not force the monsoon circulation when ENSO is removed. On the contrary, the monsoon circulation significantly forces the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal SSTs, while its connection with the western tropical Indian Ocean is clearly driven by ENSO in our numerical framework. Convection and diabatic heating associated with above-normal ISM induce a strong response over the WNP, even in the absence of ENSO, favoring moisture convergence over India.

Origins of the Asian-Australian monsoons related to Cenozoic plate movement and Tibetan Plateau uplift - A modeling study

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, X.; Dong, B.; Yin, Z. Y.; Smith, R. S.; Guo, Q.

2017-12-01

The origin of monsoon is a subject that has attracted much attention in the scientific community and even today it is still controversial. According to geological records, there is conflicting evidence regarding the timings of establishment of the monsoon climates in South Asia, East Asia, and northern Australia. Additionally, different explanations for the monsoon origins have been derived from various numerical simulations. To further investigate the origin and evolution of the Asian and Australian monsoons, we designed a series of numerical experiments using a coupled atmospheric-oceanic general circulation model. Since the Indian-Australian plate has shifted its position significantly during the Cenozoic, together with the large-scale uplift of the Tibetan Plateau (TP), in these experiments we considered the configurations of ocean-land masses and large topographic features based on geological evidence of plate motion and TP uplift in 5 typical Cenozoic geological periods: mid-Paleocene ( 60Ma), late-Eocene ( 40Ma), late-Oligocene ( 25Ma), late-Miocene ( 10Ma), and present day. These experiments allowed us to examine the combined effects of the changes in the land-ocean configuration due to plate movement and TP uplift, they also provided insight into the effects of the high CO2 levels during the Eocene. The simulations revealed that during the Paleocene, the Indian Subcontinent was still positioned in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) and, therefore, its climate behaved as the SH tropical monsoon. By the late Eocene, it moved into the tropical Northern Hemisphere, which allowed the establishment of the South Asian monsoon. In contrast, the East Asian and Australian monsoon did not exist in the late Oligocene. These monsoon systems were established in the Miocene and then enhanced thereafter. Establishments of the low-latitude monsoons in South Asia and Australia were entirely determined by the position of the Indian-Australian plate and not related to the TP uplift

Breeding in the monsoon : semi-annual reproduction in the Seychelles warbler (Acrocephalus sechellensis)

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Komdeur, Jan; Daan, Serge

2005-01-01

Despite the absence of pronounced changes in day length, there is considerable climatological seasonality in the tropics. Its expression can be complex like in the monsoon climate of the Indian Ocean Islands. The land mass distribution on both sides of the equator leads to seasonal changes in

Precipitation variability inferred from the annual growth and isotopic composition of tropical trees

Science.gov (United States)

Ballantyne, A. P.; Baker, P. A.; Chambers, J. Q.; Villalba, R.

2005-12-01

Here we demonstrate that annual growth and isotopic ratios in tropical trees are responsive to seasonal and annual precipitation variability. We identify several regions of tropical South America characterized by significant relationships between oxygen isotopic ratios (δ 18O) in precipitation and precipitation amount (r = -0.82). Many of these regions are also sensitive to inter-annual variability in the South American Monsoon modulated by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The effectiveness of δ 18O and annual growth of tropical trees as a precipitation proxy is validated by high-resolution sampling of a Tachigali vermelho tree growing near Manaus, Brazil (3.1° S, 60.0° S). Growth in Tachigali spp. was highly correlated with both precipitation and cellulose δ 18O (r = 0.60) and precipitation amount was significantly correlated with δ 18O at a lag of approximately one month (r = 0.56). We also report a multi-proxy record spanning 180 years from Cedrela odorata growing in the Peruvian Amazon near Puerto Maldonado (12.6° S, 69.2° W) revealing a significant relationship between cellulose and monsoon precipitation over the region (r = -0.33). A 150-year record obtained from Polylepis tarapacana growing at Volcan Granada in Northern Argentina (22.0° S, 66.0° W) is also reported with a significant relationship between local monsoon precipitation and a regionally derived ring width index (r = 0.38). Although no significant relationship was revealed between cellulose δ 18O and precipitation in this taxa at this location, separate radii within the same tree revealed a significantly coherent δ 18O signal (r = 0.38). We compared our proxy chronologies with monsoon precipitation reanalysis data for tropical South America, which revealed key features of the South American Monsoon and their sensitivity to ENSO variability.

A vigorous Mesoamerican monsoon during the Last Glacial Maximum driven by orbital and oceanic forcing

Science.gov (United States)

Lachniet, M. S.; Asmerom, Y.; Bernal, J. P.; Polyak, V.; Vazquez-Selem, L. V.

2012-12-01

The external forcings on global monsoon strength include summer orbital insolation and ocean circulation changes, both of which are key control knobs on Earth's climate. However, few records of the North American Monsoon (NAM) are available to test its sensitivity to variations in the precession-dominated insolation signal and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; 21 ± 3 cal ka BP) and deglacial periods. In particular, well-dated and high-resolution records from the southern sector of the NAM, referred to informally as the Mesoamerican monsoon to distinguish it from the more northerly 'core' NAM, are needed to better elucidate paleoclimate change in North America. Here, we present a 22 ka (ka = kilo years) rainfall history from absolutely-dated speleothems from tropical southwestern Mexico that documents a vigorous LGM summer monsoon, in contradiction to previous interpretations, and that the monsoon collapsed during the Heinrich stadial 1 and Younger Dryas cold events. We conclude that a strong Mesoamerican monsoon requires both a large ocean-to-land temperature contrast, driven as today by summer insolation, and a proximal latitudinal position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone, forced by active AMOC.

Simulated sensitivity of tropical cyclone track to the moisture in an idealized monsoon gyre

Science.gov (United States)

Yan, Ziyu; Ge, Xuyang; Guo, Bingyao

2017-12-01

In this study, the sensitivity of tropical cyclone (TC) track to the moisture condition in a nearby monsoon gyre (MG) is investigated. Numerical simulations reveal that TC track is highly sensitive to the spatial distribution of relative humidity (RH). In an experiment conducted with higher (lower) RH in the eastern (western) semicircle of an MG, the TC experiences a sharp northward turning. In contrast, when the RH pattern is reversed, the simulated TC does not show a sharp northward turning. The RH distribution modulates the intensity and structure of both the TC and MG, so that when the TC is initially embedded in a moister environment, convection is enhanced in the outer core, which favors an expansion of the outer core size. A TC with a larger outer size has greater beta-effect propagation, favoring a faster westward translational speed. Meanwhile, higher RH enhances the vorticity gradient within the MG and promotes a quicker attraction between the TC and MG centers through vorticity segregation process. These cumulative effects cause the TC to collocate with the MG center. Once the coalescence process takes place, the energy dispersion associated with the TC and MG is enhanced, which rapidly strengthens southwesterly flows on the eastern flanks. The resulting steering flow leads the TC to take a sharp northward track.

Fine particulate matter in the tropical environment: monsoonal effects, source apportionment, and health risk assessment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. F. Khan

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The health implications of PM2.5 in the tropical region of Southeast Asia (SEA are significant as PM2.5 can pose serious health concerns. PM2.5 concentration and sources here are strongly influenced by changes in the monsoon regime from the south-west quadrant to the north-east quadrant in the region. In this work, PM2.5 samples were collected at a semi-urban area using a high-volume air sampler at different seasons on 24 h basis. Analysis of trace elements and water-soluble ions was performed using inductively coupled plasma mass spectroscopy (ICP-MS and ion chromatography (IC, respectively. Apportionment analysis of PM2.5 was carried out using the United States Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA positive matrix factorization (PMF 5.0 and a mass closure model. We quantitatively characterized the health risks posed to human populations through the inhalation of selected heavy metals in PM2.5. 48 % of the samples collected exceeded the World Health Organization (WHO 24 h PM2.5 guideline but only 19 % of the samples exceeded 24 h US EPA National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS. The PM2.5 concentration was slightly higher during the north-east monsoon compared to south-west monsoon. The main trace metals identified were As, Pb, Cd, Ni, Mn, V, and Cr while the main ions were SO42−, NO3−, NH4+, and Na. The mass closure model identified four major sources of PM2.5 that account for 55 % of total mass balance. The four sources are mineral matter (MIN (35 %, secondary inorganic aerosol (SIA (11 %, sea salt (SS (7 %, and trace elements (TE (2 %. PMF 5.0 elucidated five potential sources: motor vehicle emissions coupled with biomass burning (31 % were the most dominant, followed by marine/sulfate aerosol (20 %, coal burning (19 %, nitrate aerosol (17 %, and mineral/road dust (13 %. The hazard quotient (HQ for four selected metals (Pb, As, Cd, and Ni in PM2.5 mass was highest in PM2.5 mass from the coal burning

Dynamics of size-fractionated phytoplankton biomass in a monsoonal estuary: Patterns and drivers for seasonal and spatial variability

Science.gov (United States)

Rajaneesh, K. M.; Mitbavkar, Smita; Anil, Arga Chandrashekar

2018-07-01

Phytoplankton size-fractionated biomass is an important determinant of the type of food web functioning in aquatic ecosystems. Knowledge about the effect of seasonal salinity gradient on the size-fractionated biomass dynamics is still lacking, especially in tropical estuaries experiencing monsoon. The phytoplankton size-fractionated chlorophyll a biomass (>3 μm and 3 μm size-fraction was the major contributor to the total phytoplankton chlorophyll a biomass with the ephemeral dominance of biomass concentration of both size-fractions showed signs of recovery with increasing salinity downstream towards the end of the monsoon season. In contrast, the chlorophyll a biomass response was size-dependent during the non-monsoon seasons with the sporadic dominance (>50%) of biomass during high water temperature episodes from downstream to middle estuary during pre-monsoon and at low salinity and high nutrient conditions upstream during post-monsoon. These conditions also influenced the picophytoplankton community structure with picoeukaryotes dominating during the pre-monsoon, phycoerythrin containing Synechococcus during the monsoon and phycocyanin containing Synechococcus during the post-monsoon. This study highlights switching over of dominance in size-fractionated phytoplankton chlorophyll a biomass at intra, inter-seasonal and spatial scales which will likely govern the estuarine trophodynamics.

Effects of increased CO{sub 2} levels on monsoons

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cherchi, Annalisa; Masina, Simona; Navarra, Antonio [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici and Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Bologna (Italy); Alessandri, Andrea [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici, Bologna (Italy)

2011-07-15

Increased atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration provided warmer atmospheric temperature and higher atmospheric water vapor content, but not necessarily more precipitation. A set of experiments performed with a state-of-the-art coupled general circulation model forced with increased atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration (2, 4 and 16 times the present-day mean value) were analyzed and compared with a control experiment to evaluate the effect of increased CO{sub 2} levels on monsoons. Generally, the monsoon precipitation responses to CO{sub 2} forcing are largest if extreme concentrations of carbon dioxide are used, but they are not necessarily proportional to the forcing applied. In fact, despite a common response in terms of an atmospheric water vapor increase to the atmospheric warming, two out of the six monsoons studied simulate less or equal summer mean precipitation in the 16 x CO{sub 2} experiment compared to the intermediate sensitivity experiments. The precipitation differences between CO{sub 2} sensitivity experiments and CTRL have been investigated specifying the contribution of thermodynamic and purely dynamic processes. As a general rule, the differences depending on the atmospheric moisture content changes (thermodynamic component) are large and positive, and they tend to be damped by the dynamic component associated with the changes in the vertical velocity. However, differences are observed among monsoons in terms of the role played by other terms (like moisture advection and evaporation) in shaping the precipitation changes in warmer climates. The precipitation increase, even if weak, occurs despite a weakening of the mean circulation in the monsoon regions (''precipitation-wind paradox''). In particular, the tropical east-west Walker circulation is reduced, as found from velocity potential analysis. The meridional component of the monsoon circulation is changed as well, with larger (smaller) meridional (vertical) scales. (orig.)

Regional simulation of Indian summer monsoon intraseasonal oscillations at gray-zone resolution

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Xingchao; Pauluis, Olivier M.; Zhang, Fuqing

2018-01-01

Simulations of the Indian summer monsoon by the cloud-permitting Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model at gray-zone resolution are described in this study, with a particular emphasis on the model ability to capture the monsoon intraseasonal oscillations (MISOs). Five boreal summers are simulated from 2007 to 2011 using the ERA-Interim reanalysis as the lateral boundary forcing data. Our experimental setup relies on a horizontal grid spacing of 9 km to explicitly simulate deep convection without the use of cumulus parameterizations. When compared to simulations with coarser grid spacing (27 km) and using a cumulus scheme, the 9 km simulations reduce the biases in mean precipitation and produce more realistic low-frequency variability associated with MISOs. Results show that the model at the 9 km gray-zone resolution captures the salient features of the summer monsoon. The spatial distributions and temporal evolutions of monsoon rainfall in the WRF simulations verify qualitatively well against observations from the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM), with regional maxima located over Western Ghats, central India, Himalaya foothills, and the west coast of Myanmar. The onset, breaks, and withdrawal of the summer monsoon in each year are also realistically captured by the model. The MISO-phase composites of monsoon rainfall, low-level wind, and precipitable water anomalies in the simulations also agree qualitatively with the observations. Both the simulations and observations show a northeastward propagation of the MISOs, with the intensification and weakening of the Somali Jet over the Arabian Sea during the active and break phases of the Indian summer monsoon.

Termites as a factor of spatial differentiation of CO2 fluxes from the soils of monsoon tropical forests in Southern Vietnam

Science.gov (United States)

Lopes de Gerenyu, Valentin; Anichkin, Alexander

2016-04-01

Termites play the key role in biogeochemical transformation of organic matter acting as "moderators" of fluxes of carbon and other nutrients. They destroy not only leave litter but also coarse woody debris. Termites translocate considerable masses of dead organic materials into their houses, which leads to significant accumulations of organic matter in termite mounds. We studied the impact of termite mounds on redistribution of CO2 fluxes from soils in semi-deciduous monsoon tropical forests of southern Vietnam. Field study was performed in the Cat Tien National Park (11°21'-11°48'N, 107°10'-107°34'E). The spatial and temporary dynamics of CO2 fluxes from soils (Andosols) populated by termites were studied in plain lagerstroemia (Lagerstroemia calyculata Kurz) monsoon tropical forests. The rate of CO2 emission from the soil surface was measured by closed chamber method two-three times per month from November 2010 to December 2011. Permanent cylindrical PVC chambers (9 cm in diameter and 15 cm in height) were installed beyond the areas occupied by termite mounds (5 replications). Litter was not removed from the soil surface before the measurements. To estimate the spatial heterogeneity of the CO2 emission fluxes from soils populated by termites, a special 'termite' plot (TerPl) was equipped. It was 10×10 m in size and included three termite mounds: one mound built up by Globitermes sulphureus and two mounds populated by termites of the Odontotermes genus. Overall, 52 PVC chambers were installed permanently on the 'termite' plot (ca. 1 m apart from one another). The CO2 emission rate from TerPl was also measured by chamber closed method once in the dry season (April) and twice through the wet season (July and August). The average rate of CO2 emission from termite mounds was two times higher than that from the surrounding area (SurAr). In the dry season, it comprised 91±7 mg C/m2/h from the surrounding soils and 196±16 mg C/m2/h from the termite mounds. In the

A Holocene Record of Monsoon Intensity From Speleothems in Flores, Indonesia

Science.gov (United States)

Griffiths, M. L.; Drysdale, R.; Gagan, M.; Ayliffe, L.; Zhao, J.; St. Pierre, E.; Hantoro, W.; Suwargadi, B.

2007-12-01

The Australasian monsoon is among the largest monsoon systems on Earth. The affected region experiences a marked seasonal cycle in winds and precipitation, similar to its Northern Hemisphere counterparts (e.g., Asian monsoons). The Australasian monsoon is the life blood of the millions of people of the Indonesian archipelago. Since the climate is the dominating factor controlling food production, it is of great significance and urgency that we gain a firmer grasp on the parameters that control variations in monsoon intensity. Precise uranium series dating of two actively growing speleothems measuring ~1.25 (LR06-B1) and ~1.61 (LR06-B3) meters in length from Liang Luar cave (Flores, eastern Indonesia), reveal basal ages of ~12,846±103 and 23,605±171 years respectively. In previous studies, stable isotope ratios (δ18O and δ13C) and trace element concentrations in speleothems have revealed past environmental change (e.g., Burns et al., 2001; Wang et al., 2001; Fleitmann et al., 2004; Drysdale et al., 2004).In monsoon-affected regions, the δ18O signal recorded in stalagmites seems to be dominated by the amount of precipitation (so-called `amount effect'), whereby more negative (positive) δ18O values indicate enhanced (diminished) precipitation. Preliminary results from LR06-B1 indicate that δ18O values show a general increase in monsoon intensity from the beginning of the record to ~2000 years BP: this more or less follows insolation changes over the Australian continent.Comparison of our record with D4 from Dongge Cave reveals an anticorrelation during the Holocene, further supporting the hypothesis that tropical monsoon intensity is largely controlled by changes in insolation in both the Northern and Southern Hemisphere. Examination of our δ13C record demonstrates a high-frequency signal superimposed on low- frequency variability which correlates with the reconstructed sunspot cycle: higher (lower) sunspot numbers, and hence increased solar activity

Monsoon onset over Kerala and pre monsoon rainfall peak

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

RameshKumar, M.R.; Shenoi, S.S.C.; Shankar, D.

and the monsoon onset date over Kerala was found to be 0.72, which was statistically significant. Thus, as is felt that the pre monsoon rainfall estimate from the satellite data can be used for predicting the monsoon onset over Kerala coast. The results...

Large-Scale Control of the Arabian Sea Summer Monsoon Inversion and Low Clouds: A New Perspective

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, C. H.; Wang, S. Y.; Hsu, H. H.; Hsu, P. C.

2016-12-01

The Arabian Sea undergoes a so-called summer monsoon inversion that reaches the maximum intensity in August associated with a large amount of low-level clouds. The formation of inversion and low clouds was generally thought to be a local system influenced by the India-Pakistan monsoon advancement. New empirical and numerical evidence suggests that, rather than being a mere byproduct of the nearby monsoon, the Arabian Sea monsoon inversion is coupled with a broad-scale monsoon evolution connected across the Africa Sahel, South Asia, and the East Asia-western North Pacific (WNP). Several subseasonal variations occur in tandem: The eastward expansion of the Asian-Pacific monsoonal heating likely suppresses the India-Pakistan monsoon while enhancing low-level thermal inversion of Arabian Sea; the upper-tropospheric anticyclone in South Asia weakens in August smoothing zonal contrast in geopotential heights (10°N-30°N); the subtropical WNP monsoon trough in the lower troposphere that signals the revival of East Asian summer monsoon matures in August; the Sahel rainfall peaks in August accompanied by an intensified tropical easterly jet. The occurrence of the latter two processes enhances upper-level anticyclones over Africa and WNP and this, in turn, induces subsidence in between over the Arabian Sea. Numerical experiments demonstrate the combined effect of the African and WNP monsoonal heating on the enhancement of the Arabian Sea monsoon inversion. Connection is further found in the interannual and decadal variations between the East Asian-WNP monsoon and the Arabian Sea monsoon inversion. In years with reduced low clouds of Arabian Sea, the East Asian midlatitude jet stream remains strong in August while the WNP monsoon trough appears to be weakened. The Arabian Sea inversion (ridge) and WNP trough pattern which forms a dipole structure, is also found to have intensified since the 21st century.

Monsoonal response to mid-holocene orbital forcing in a high resolution GCM

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. H. C. Bosmans

2012-04-01

Full Text Available In this study, we use a sophisticated high-resolution atmosphere-ocean coupled climate model, EC-Earth, to investigate the effect of Mid-Holocene orbital forcing on summer monsoons on both hemispheres. During the Mid-Holocene (6 ka, there was more summer insolation on the Northern Hemisphere than today, which intensified the meridional temperature and pressure gradients. Over North Africa, monsoonal precipitation is intensified through increased landward monsoon winds and moisture advection as well as decreased moisture convergence over the oceans and more convergence over land compared to the pre-industrial simulation. Precipitation also extends further north as the ITCZ shifts northward in response to the stronger poleward gradient of insolation. This increase and poleward extent is stronger than in most previous ocean-atmosphere GCM simulations. In north-westernmost Africa, precipitation extends up to 35° N. Over tropical Africa, internal feedbacks completely overcome the direct warming effect of increased insolation. We also find a weakened African Easterly Jet. Over Asia, monsoonal precipitation during the Mid-Holocene is increased as well, but the response is different than over North-Africa. There is more convection over land at the expense of convection over the ocean, but precipitation does not extend further northward, monsoon winds over the ocean are weaker and the surrounding ocean does not provide more moisture. On the Southern Hemisphere, summer insolation and the poleward insolation gradient were weaker during the Mid-Holocene, resulting in a reduced South American monsoon through decreased monsoon winds and less convection, as well as an equatorward shift in the ITCZ. This study corroborates the findings of paleodata research as well as previous model studies, while giving a more detailed account of Mid-Holocene monsoons.

Fine particulate matter associated with monsoonal effect and the responses of biomass fire hotspots in the tropical environment

Science.gov (United States)

Khan, M. F.; Latif, M. T.; Saw, W. H.; Amil, N.; Nadzir, M. S. M.; Sahani, M.; Tahir, N. M.; Chung, J. X.

2015-08-01

The health implications of PM2.5 in tropical regions of Southeast Asia are significant as PM2.5 can pose serious health concerns. PM2.5 is strongly influenced by the monsoon. We quantitatively characterize the health risks posed to human populations by selected heavy metals in PM2.5. Monsoonal effects as well as factors influencing the sources of PM2.5 were also determined. Apportionment analysis of PM2.5 was undertaken using US EPA positive matrix factorization (PMF) 5.0 and a mass closure model. Overall, 48 % of the samples exceeded the World Health Organization (WHO) 24 h guideline. The mass closure model identified four sources of PM2.5: (a) mineral matter (MIN) (35 %), (b) secondary inorganic aerosol (SIA) (11 %), (c) sea salt (SS) (7 %), (d) trace elements (TE) (2 %) and (e) undefined (UD) (45 %). PMF 5.0 identified five potential sources and motor vehicle emissions and biomass burning were dominant followed by marine and sulfate aerosol, coal burning, nitrate aerosol, and mineral and road dust. The non-carcinogenic risk level for four selected metals (Pb, As, Cd and Ni) in PM2.5 and in the identified major sources by PMF > 5.0, with respect to inhalation follows the order of PM2.5 > coal burning > motor vehicle emissions/biomass burning > mineral/road dust. The lifetime cancer risk follows the order of As > Ni > Pb > Cd for mineral/road dust, coal burning and overall of PM2.5 concentration and As > Pb > Ni > Cd for motor vehicle/biomass burning. Overall, the associated cancer risk posed by the exposure of toxic metals in PM2.5 is three to four in 1 000 000 people in this location.

Copepod carcasses in a tropical estuary during different hydrographical settings

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Jyothibabu, R.; Jagadeesan, L.; Lallu, K.R.

at the other end determines the salinity and other physicochemical characteristics of the Cochin backwaters (Madhupratap 1987; Jyothibabu et al. 2006; Balachandran et al. 2008). Since the CBW is geographically located in the tropical region, seasonal...-interval locations were sampled along the salinity gradients in the Cochin backwaters (Fig. 1). First sampling was conducted on May 26, 2011 (Pre-Monsoon) to represent typical stratified/high saline conditions of the Pre-Southwest Monsoon. The second sampling...

Delivery of halogenated very short-lived substances from the west Indian Ocean to the stratosphere during the Asian summer monsoon

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A. Fiehn

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Halogenated very short-lived substances (VSLSs are naturally produced in the ocean and emitted to the atmosphere. When transported to the stratosphere, these compounds can have a significant influence on the ozone layer and climate. During a research cruise on RV Sonne in the subtropical and tropical west Indian Ocean in July and August 2014, we measured the VSLSs, methyl iodide (CH3I and for the first time bromoform (CHBr3 and dibromomethane (CH2Br2, in surface seawater and the marine atmosphere to derive their emission strengths. Using the Lagrangian particle dispersion model FLEXPART with ERA-Interim meteorological fields, we calculated the direct contribution of observed VSLS emissions to the stratospheric halogen burden during the Asian summer monsoon. Furthermore, we compare the in situ calculations with the interannual variability of transport from a larger area of the west Indian Ocean surface to the stratosphere for July 2000–2015. We found that the west Indian Ocean is a strong source for CHBr3 (910 pmol m−2 h−1, very strong source for CH2Br2 (930 pmol m−2 h−1, and an average source for CH3I (460 pmol m−2 h−1. The atmospheric transport from the tropical west Indian Ocean surface to the stratosphere experiences two main pathways. On very short timescales, especially relevant for the shortest-lived compound CH3I (3.5 days lifetime, convection above the Indian Ocean lifts oceanic air masses and VSLSs towards the tropopause. On a longer timescale, the Asian summer monsoon circulation transports oceanic VSLSs towards India and the Bay of Bengal, where they are lifted with the monsoon convection and reach stratospheric levels in the southeastern part of the Asian monsoon anticyclone. This transport pathway is more important for the longer-lived brominated compounds (17 and 150 days lifetime for CHBr3 and CH2Br2. The entrainment of CHBr3 and CH3I from the west Indian Ocean to the stratosphere during the

Changes in the in-phase relationship between the Indian and subsequent Australian summer monsoons during the past five decades

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J.-Y. Yu

2007-10-01

Full Text Available This study examines the decadal changes in the in-phase relationship between Indian summer monsoon and the subsequent Australian summer monsoon using observational data from 1950–2005. The in-phase relationship is the tendency for a strong Indian summer monsoon to be followed by a strong Australian summer monsoon and vice versa. It is found that the in-phase relationship was weak during the late 1950s and early 1960s, strengthened to a maximum in the early 1970s just before the 1976/77 Pacific climate shift, then declined until the late 1990s. Pacific SST anomalies are noticed to have strong persistence from boreal to austral summer, providing the memory to connect the Indian and subsequent Australian summer monsoon. The simultaneous correlation between the Pacific SST anomalies and the Indian summer monsoon is always strong. It is the weakening and strengthening of the simultaneous correlation between the Australian summer monsoon and the Pacific SST anomalies that contributes to the decadal variations of the in-phase monsoon relation. This study suggests that the interaction between the Australian monsoon and the Pacific Ocean is crucial to tropical climate variability and has experienced significant changes over the past five decades.

The Monsoon Erosion Pump and the Indian Monsoon since Eocene

Science.gov (United States)

Giosan, L.

2017-12-01

Lack of consensus on the Neogene establishment and evolution of the Indian Monsoon is remarkable after half a century of research. Conflicting interpretations point toward the possibility of periodic decoupling between monsoon winds and monsoon precipitation. Here I introduce the concept of a monsoon erosion pump based on terrestrial and oceanic records reconstructed from recent NGHP and IODP drilling and spanning the last 34 million years in the Bay of Bengal, Arabian and Andaman Seas. From millennial to orbital to tectonic timescales, these records suggest that vegetation land cover interacts and modulates the regime of erosion and weathering under perennial but variable monsoonal rain conditions. Under this new proposed paradigm the Indian monsoon exhibits two distinct flavours during the Neogene that can be largely explained by its heartbeat, or astronomical forcing, mediated by the global glacial state and interacting with the paleogeography of South Asia.

Monsoon rainfall over India in June and link with northwest tropical pacific - June ISMR and link with northwest tropical pacific

Science.gov (United States)

Surendran, Sajani; Gadgil, Sulochana; Rajendran, Kavirajan; Varghese, Stella Jes; Kitoh, Akio

2018-03-01

Recent years have witnessed large interannual variation of all-India rainfall (AIR) in June, with intermittent large deficits and excesses. Variability of June AIR is found to have the strongest link with variation of rainfall over northwest tropical Pacific (NWTP), with AIR deficit (excess) associated with enhancement (suppression) of NWTP rainfall. This association is investigated using high-resolution Meteorological Research Institute model which shows high skill in simulating important features of Asian summer monsoon, its variability and the inverse relationship between NWTP rainfall and AIR. Analysis of the variation of NWTP rainfall shows that it is associated with a change in the latitudinal position of subtropical westerly jet over the region stretching from West of Tibetan Plateau (WTP) to NWTP and the phase of Rossby wave steered in it with centres over NWTP and WTP. In years with large rainfall excess/deficit, the strong link between AIR and NWTP rainfall exists through differences in Rossby wave phase steered in the jet. The positive phase of the WTP-NWTP pattern, with troughs over WTP and west of NWTP, tends to be associated with increased rainfall over NWTP and decreased AIR. This scenario is reversed in the opposite phase. Thus, the teleconnection between NWTP rainfall and AIR is a manifestation of the difference in the phase of Rossby wave between excess and deficit years, with centres over WTP and NWTP. This brings out the importance of prediction of phase of Rossby waves over WTP and NWTP in advance, for prediction of June rainfall over India.

Multifaceted intra-seasonal modes over the East Asia-western North Pacific summer monsoon region

Science.gov (United States)

Ha, K. J.; Oh, H.

2017-12-01

Intra-seasonal monsoon prediction is the most imperative task due to high impact on 2/3 of world populations' daily life, but there remains an enduring challenge in climate science. The present study aims to provide a physical understanding of the sources for prediction of dominant intra-seasonal modes in the East Asian-western North Pacific summer monsoon (EA-WNPSM): preMeiyu&Baiu, Changma&Meiyu, WNPSM, and monsoon gyre modes classified by the self-organizing map analysis. The preMeiyu-Baiu mode is strongly linked to both the anomalous low-level convergence and vertical wind shear through baroclinic instability, and the Changma&Meiyu mode has a strengthened tropic-subtropics connection along the western north Pacific subtropical high, which induces vertical destabilization and strong convective instability. The WNPSM and monsoon gyre modes are characterized by anomalous southeasterly flow of warm and moist air from western north Pacific monsoon, and low-level easterly flow, respectively. Prominent difference in response to the ENSO leads to different effects of the Indian Ocean and western Pacific thermal state, and consequently, the distinct moisture supply and instability variations for the EASM intra-seasonal modes. We attempt to determine the predictability sources for the four modes in the EA-WNPSM using physical-empirical model. The selected predictors are based on the persistent and tendency signals of the SST/2m air temperature and sea level pressure fields, which reflect the asymmetric response to the ENSO and the ocean and land surface anomalous conditions. For the preMeiyu&Baiu mode, the SST cooling tendency over the WNP, which persists into summer, is the distinguishing contributor which is causative of north-south thermal contrast. Since the Changma&Meiyu mode is strongly related to the WNP subtropical high, a major precursor is the persistent SST difference between the Indian Ocean and the western Pacific. The WNPSM mode is mostly affected by the

Transport of regional pollutions to UTLS during Asian Summer Monsoon - A CTM study

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Li, Qian; Bian, Jianchun; Lu, Daren

2013-04-01

We use a 3-D global Chemical Transport Model (CTM) GEOS-Chem to simulate the observed Asian Summer Monsoon transport of biomass burning tracers HCN and CO from local emissions to UTLS. By analyzing the satellite observations, we focus on the distribution and spatial-temporal variation of HCN and CO concentration in UTLS. The model simulations capture well the main features of distribution of HCN and CO compared with satellite observations. Recent studies (Li et al., 2009; Randel et al., 2010) indicated that regional emissions may play an important role controlling the distribution and variation of HCN in tropical UTLS during Asian Summer Monsoon seasons, mainly due to the local dynamical uplift of Asian Summer Monsoon. By using GEOS-Chem simulations, we will analyze the UTLS distribution and variation of HCN and CO from emissions of different regions including S.E. Asia, Boreal Asia, Indonesia and Australia, Africa, Europe, Northern America and Southern America. According to the amount and seasonal variability of emissions, the contribution of biomass burning and biofuel burning emissions of different regions to the highly concentrated HCN and CO in UTLS during Asian Summer Monsoon seasons will be discussed, individually.

A high-resolved record of the Asian Summer Monsoon from Dongge Cave, China for the past 1200 years

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, Kan; Wang, Yongjin; Edwards, R. Lawrence; Cheng, Hai; Liu, Dianbing; Kong, Xinggong

2015-08-01

Two annually-laminated and 230Th-dated stalagmite oxygen isotope (δ18O) records from Dongge Cave, China, provided a high-resolution Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM) history for the past 1200 years. A close similarity between annual band thickness and stable isotope analyses (δ13C and δ18O) suggests the calcite δ18O is most likely a proxy associated with ASM precipitation. The two duplicated stalagmite δ18O records show that the ASM varies at a periodicity of ∼220 years, concordant with a dominant cycle of solar activity. A period of strong ASM activity occurred during the Spörer Minimum (1450-1550 A.D.), followed by a striking drop circa 1580 A.D., potentially consistent with the social unrest in the final decades of China's Ming Dynasty (1368-1644 A.D.). Centennial-scale changes in ASM precipitation over the last millennium match well with changes in tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and South American summer monsoon precipitation. Our findings suggest that variations in low-latitude monsoon precipitation are probably driven by shifts in the mean position of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), which is further mediated by solar activity and tropical SSTs.

Upper ocean physical processes in the Tropical Indian Ocean

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Rao, L.V.G.; Ram, P.S.

This monograph is the outcome of an attempt by the authors to present a synthesis of the studies on physical processes in the Tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) in relation to air-sea interaction, monsoon/climate variability and biological productivity...

Regime shift of Indian summer monsoon rainfall to a persistent arid state: external forcing versus internal variability

Science.gov (United States)

Srivastava, Ankur; Pradhan, Maheswar; Goswami, B. N.; Rao, Suryachandra A.

2017-11-01

The high propensity of deficient monsoon rainfall over the Indian sub-continent in the recent 3 decades (seven deficient monsoons against 3 excess monsoon years) compared to the prior 3 decades has serious implications on the food and water resources in the country. Motivated by the need to understand the high occurrence of deficient monsoon during this period, we examine the change in predictability of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) and its teleconnections with Indo-Pacific sea surface temperatures between the two periods. The shift in the tropical climate in the late 1970s appears to be one of the major reasons behind this. We find an increased predictability of the ISM in the recent 3 decades owing to reduced `internal' interannual variability (IAV) due to the high-frequency modes, while the `external' IAV arising from the low-frequency modes has remained largely the same. The Indian Ocean Dipole-ISM teleconnection has become positive during the monsoon season in the recent period thereby compensating for the weakened ENSO-ISM teleconnection. The central Pacific El-Niño and the Indian Ocean (IO) warming during the recent 3 decades are working together to realise enhanced ascending motion in the equatorial IO between 70°E and 100°E, preconditioning the Indian monsoon system prone to a deficient state.

The Indian Monsoon

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

The word 'monsoon' is derived from the Arabic word 'mausam' for season and the distinguishing attribute of ... lance, the word monsoon is used for the rainfall in the rainy season. In this article, I discuss the ..... [1] C S Ramage, Monsoon meteorology, International Geophysics Series,. Academic Press, San Diego, California ...

Comparison of East Asian winter monsoon indices

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Gao Hui

2007-01-01

Full Text Available Four East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM indices are compared in this paper. In the research periods, all the indices show similar interannual and decadal-interdecadal variations, with predominant periods centering in 3–4 years, 6.5 years and 9–15 years, respectively. Besides, all the indices show remarkable weakening trends since the 1980s. The correlation coefficient of each two indices is positive with a significance level of 99%. Both the correlation analyses and the composites indicate that in stronger EAWM years, the Siberian high and the higher-level subtropical westerly jet are stronger, and the Aleutian low and the East Asia trough are deeper. This circulation pattern is favorable for much stronger northwesterly wind and lower air temperature in the subtropical regions of East Asia, while it is on the opposite in weaker EAWM years. Besides, EAWM can also exert a remarkable leading effect on the summer monsoon. After stronger (weaker EAWM, less (more summer precipitation is seen over the regions from the Yangtze River valley of China to southern Japan, while more (less from South China Sea to the tropical western Pacific.

The East Asian Atmospheric Water Cycle and Monsoon Circulation in the Met Office Unified Model

Science.gov (United States)

Rodríguez, José M.; Milton, Sean F.; Marzin, Charline

2017-10-01

In this study the low-level monsoon circulation and observed sources of moisture responsible for the maintenance and seasonal evolution of the East Asian monsoon are examined, studying the detailed water budget components. These observational estimates are contrasted with the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM) climate simulation performance in capturing the circulation and water cycle at a variety of model horizontal resolutions and in fully coupled ocean-atmosphere simulations. We study the role of large-scale circulation in determining the hydrological cycle by analyzing key systematic errors in the model simulations. MetUM climate simulations exhibit robust circulation errors, including a weakening of the summer west Pacific Subtropical High, which leads to an underestimation of the southwesterly monsoon flow over the region. Precipitation and implied diabatic heating biases in the South Asian monsoon and Maritime Continent region are shown, via nudging sensitivity experiments, to have an impact on the East Asian monsoon circulation. By inference, the improvement of these tropical biases with increased model horizontal resolution is hypothesized to be a factor in improvements seen over East Asia with increased resolution. Results from the annual cycle of the hydrological budget components in five domains show a good agreement between MetUM simulations and ERA-Interim reanalysis in northern and Tibetan domains. In simulations, the contribution from moisture convergence is larger than in reanalysis, and they display less precipitation recycling over land. The errors are closely linked to monsoon circulation biases.

Impact of maintenance dredging on macrobenthic community structure of a tropical estuary

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Rehitha, T.V.; Ullas, N.; Vineetha, G.; Benny, P.Y.; Madhu, N.V.; Revichandran, C.

This paper demonstrates the impact of maintenance dredging activities on the macrobenthic community structure of a tropical monsoonal estuary (Cochin estuary), located in the southwest coast of India for three consecutive years. The results...

Lower tropospheric ozone over India and its linkage to the South Asian monsoon

Science.gov (United States)

Lu, Xiao; Zhang, Lin; Liu, Xiong; Gao, Meng; Zhao, Yuanhong; Shao, Jingyuan

2018-03-01

Lower tropospheric (surface to 600 hPa) ozone over India poses serious risks to both human health and crops, and potentially affects global ozone distribution through frequent deep convection in tropical regions. Our current understanding of the processes controlling seasonal and long-term variations in lower tropospheric ozone over this region is rather limited due to spatially and temporally sparse observations. Here we present an integrated process analysis of the seasonal cycle, interannual variability, and long-term trends of lower tropospheric ozone over India and its linkage to the South Asian monsoon using the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) satellite observations for years 2006-2014 interpreted with a global chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem) simulation for 1990-2010. OMI observed lower tropospheric ozone over India averaged for 2006-2010, showing the highest concentrations (54.1 ppbv) in the pre-summer monsoon season (May) and the lowest concentrations (40.5 ppbv) in the summer monsoon season (August). Process analyses in GEOS-Chem show that hot and dry meteorological conditions and active biomass burning together contribute to 5.8 Tg more ozone being produced in the lower troposphere in India in May than January. The onset of the summer monsoon brings ozone-unfavorable meteorological conditions and strong upward transport, which all lead to large decreases in the lower tropospheric ozone burden. Interannually, we find that both OMI and GEOS-Chem indicate strong positive correlations (r = 0.55-0.58) between ozone and surface temperature in pre-summer monsoon seasons, with larger correlations found in high NOx emission regions reflecting NOx-limited production conditions. Summer monsoon seasonal mean ozone levels are strongly controlled by monsoon strengths. Lower ozone concentrations are found in stronger monsoon seasons mainly due to less ozone net chemical production. Furthermore, model simulations over 1990-2010 estimate a mean annual trend of 0

Sustainable Ecosystem Services Framework for Tropical Catchment Management: A Review

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N. Zafirah

2017-04-01

Full Text Available The monsoon season is a natural phenomenon that occurs over the Asian continent, bringing extra precipitation which causes significant impact on most tropical watersheds. The tropical region’s countries are rich with natural rainforests and the economies of the countries situated within the region are mainly driven by the agricultural industry. In order to fulfill the agricultural demand, land clearing has worsened the situation by degrading the land surface areas. Rampant land use activities have led to land degradation and soil erosion, resulting in implications on water quality and sedimentation of the river networks. This affects the ecosystem services, especially the hydrological cycles. Intensification of the sedimentation process has resulted in shallower river systems, thus increasing their vulnerability to natural hazards (i.e., climate change, floods. Tropical forests which are essential in servicing their benefits have been depleted due to the increase in human exploitation. This paper provides an overview of the impact of land erosion caused by land use activities within tropical rainforest catchments, which lead to massive sedimentation in tropical rivers, as well as the effects of monsoon on fragile watersheds which can result in catastrophic floods. Forest ecosystems are very important in giving services to regional biogeochemical processes. Balanced ecosystems therefore, play a significant role in servicing humanity and ultimately, may create a new way of environmental management in a cost-effective manner. Essentially, such an understanding will help stakeholders to come up with better strategies in restoring the ecosystem services of tropical watersheds.

Impact of East Asian Winter and Australian Summer Monsoons on the Enhanced Surface Westerlies over the Western Tropical Pacific Ocean Preceding the El Niño Onset

Science.gov (United States)

Zheng, Y.; Zhang, R.; Bourassa, M. A.

2014-12-01

Composite analysis from NCEP-NCAR reanalysis datasets over the period 1948-2007 indicates that stronger East Asian winter monsoons (EAWM) and stronger Australian summer monsoons (ASM) generally co-exist in boreal winters preceding the onset of El Niño, although the EAWM tend to be weak after 1990, probably because of the decadal shift of EAWM and the change in El Niño events from cold-tongue type to warm-pool type. The anomalous EAWM and ASM enhance surface westerlies over the western tropical Pacific Ocean (WTP). It is proposed that the enhanced surface westerlies over the WTP prior to El Niño onset are generally associated with the concurrent anomalous EAWM and ASM. A simple analytical atmospheric model is constructed to test the hypothesis that the emergence of enhanced surface westerlies over the WTP can be linked to concurrent EAWM and ASM anomalies. Model results indicate that when anomalous northerlies from the EAWM converge with anomalous southerlies from the ASM, westerly anomalies over the WTP are enhanced. This result provides a possible explanation of the co-impact of the EAWM and the ASM on the onset of El Niño through enhancing the surface westerly over the WTP.

Emission of carbon dioxide from a tropical estuarine system, Goa, India

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Sarma, V.V.S.S.; DileepKumar, M.; Manerikar, M.

Carbon dioxide species were studied in Mandovi-Zuari system, a tropical estuarine complex influenced by strong monsoonal run-off, with implications to build up and air-water exchange of CO sub(2) . Total carbon dioxide (TOC sub(2)) behaved...

Water vapor stable isotope observations from tropical Australia

KAUST Repository

Parkes, Stephen

2015-04-01

The response of the tropical hydrological cycle to anthropogenically induced changes in radiative forcing is one of the largest discrepancies between climate models. Paleoclimate archives of the stable isotopic composition of precipitation in the tropics indicate a relationship with precipitation amount that could be exploited to study past hydroclimate and improve our knowledge of how this region responds to changes in climate forcing. Recently modelling studies of convective parameterizations fitted with water isotopes and remote sensing of water vapor isotopes in the tropics have illustrated uncertainty in the assumed relationship with rainfall amount. Therefore there is a need to collect water isotope data in the tropics that can be used to evaluate these models and help identify the relationships between the isotopic composition of meteoric waters and rainfall intensity. However, data in this region is almost non-existent. Here we present in-situ water vapor isotopic measurements and the HDO retrievals from the co-located Total Column Carbon Observing Network (TCCON) site at Darwin in Tropical Australia. The Darwin site is interestingly placed within the tropical western pacific region and is impacted upon by a clear monsoonal climate, and key climate cycles including ENSO and Madden Julian Oscillations. The analysis of the data illustrated relationships between water vapor isotopes and humidity which demonstrated the role of precipitation processes in the wet season and air mass mixing during the dry season. Further the wet season observations show complex relationships between humidity and isotopes. A simple Rayleigh distillation model was not obeyed, instead the importance of rainfall re-evaporation in generating the highly depleted signatures was demonstrated. These data potentially provide a useful tool for evaluating model parameterizations in monsoonal regions as they demonstrate relationships with precipitation processes that cannot be observed with

Evaluation of NCMRWF unified model vertical cloud structure with CloudSat over the Indian summer monsoon region

Science.gov (United States)

Jayakumar, A.; Mamgain, Ashu; Jisesh, A. S.; Mohandas, Saji; Rakhi, R.; Rajagopal, E. N.

2016-05-01

Representation of rainfall distribution and monsoon circulation in the high resolution versions of NCMRWF Unified model (NCUM-REG) for the short-range forecasting of extreme rainfall event is vastly dependent on the key factors such as vertical cloud distribution, convection and convection/cloud relationship in the model. Hence it is highly relevant to evaluate the vertical structure of cloud and precipitation of the model over the monsoon environment. In this regard, we utilized the synergy of the capabilities of CloudSat data for long observational period, by conditioning it for the synoptic situation of the model simulation period. Simulations were run at 4-km grid length with the convective parameterization effectively switched off and on. Since the sample of CloudSat overpasses through the monsoon domain is small, the aforementioned methodology may qualitatively evaluate the vertical cloud structure for the model simulation period. It is envisaged that the present study will open up the possibility of further improvement in the high resolution version of NCUM in the tropics for the Indian summer monsoon associated rainfall events.

Methyl chloride in the UT/LS observed by CARIBIC: global distribution, Asian summer monsoon outflow, and use as a tracer for tropical air

Science.gov (United States)

Baker, A. K.; Umezawa, T.; Oram, D.; Sauvage, C.; Rauthe-Schoech, A.; Montzka, S. A.; Zahn, A.; Brenninkmeijer, C. A. M.

2014-12-01

We present spatiotemporal variations of methyl chloride (CH3Cl) in the UT/LS observed mainly by the CARIBIC passenger aircraft for the years 2005-2011. The CH3Cl mixing ratio in the UT over Europe was higher than that observed at a European surface baseline station year-round, indicative of a persistent positive vertical gradient at NH mid latitudes. A series of flights over Africa and South Asia show that CH3Cl mixing ratios increase toward tropical latitudes, and the observed UT CH3Cl level over these two regions and the Atlantic was higher than that measured at remote surface sites. Strong emissions of CH3Cl in the tropics combined with meridional transport through the UT may explain such vertical and latitudinal gradients. Comparisons with CO data indicate that non-combustion sources in the tropics dominantly contribute to forming the latitudinal gradient of CH3Cl in the UT. We also observed elevated CH3Cl and CO in air influenced by biomass burning in South America and Africa, and the enhancement ratios derived for CH3Cl to CO in those regions agree with previous observations. In contrast, correlations indicate a high CH3Cl to CO ratio of 2.9±0.5 ppt ppb-1 in the Asian summer monsoon anticyclone and domestic biofuel emissions in South Asia are inferred to be responsible. We estimated CH3Cl emissions from South Asia to be 134±23 Gg Cl yr-1, which is higher than a previous estimate due to the higher CH3Cl to CO ratio observed in this study. We also examine the use of CH3Cl as a tracer of tropical tropospheric air in the LMS, where we identified air masses with elevated CH3Cl that were however stratospheric in terms of N2O. Back trajectories suggest recent low-latitude origins of such air masses in early summer. In this season, high CH3Cl LMS air shows a clear branch connecting stratospheric and tropical tropospheric air on N2O-CH3Cl scatterplots. This distinct feature vanishes in late summer when the LMS is ventilated by tropospheric air.

Tropical impacts of SST forcing: A case study for 1987 versus 1988

Science.gov (United States)

Druyan, Leonard M.; Hastenrath, Stefan

1994-01-01

The response of the NASA/Goddard Institute for Space Studies general circulation model (GCM) to large tropical sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies is investigated by evaluating model simulations of the particularly contrasting summer monsoon seasons 1987 and 1988. These years are representative of the warm and cold phases, respectively, of a recent El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event. An ensemble averaging the results of three simulations was considered for each season, using monthly mean observed SST anomalies for June-August 1987 and 1988 as lower boundary forcing. Consistent with the European Center for Medium Weather Forecast (ECMWF)-analyzed winds, the simulations based on 1988 as compared to 1987 SST exhibit stronger upper-tropospheric irrotational circulation between the monsoon regions and the Southern Hemispheric sub-tropical anticyclones, a stronger Pacific Walker cell and a weaker subtropical westerly jet over the South Pacific. In the same vein, the modeled precipitation, indicating a more northerly position of the Pacific Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in 1988 compared with 1987, is supported by satellite observations of outgoing longwave radiation and highly reflective clouds.

Fine-scale responses of phytoplankton to freshwater influx in a tropical monsoonal estuary following the onset of southwest monsoon

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Pednekar, S.M.; Matondkar, S.G.P.; Gomes, H.R.; Goes, J.I.; Parab, S.G.; Kerkar, V.

of seawater which have a significant impact on circulation, salinity (Shetye et al 2007; Vijith et al 2009) as well as water column turbidity caused by the dis- turbance of bottom sediments (Devassy and Goes 1988). On account of this free mixing of coastal.... By the first week of October (PostM Influence of SW monsoon in phytoplankton–freshwater influx 549 phase), rainfall had reduced to occasional and spo- radic showers and salinity values began rising to between3and7psu. 3.3 Nitrate Nitrate variation across...

ENSO, IOD and Indian Summer Monsoon in NCEP climate forecast system

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pokhrel, Samir; Chaudhari, H.S.; Saha, Subodh K.; Dhakate, Ashish; Yadav, R.K.; Salunke, Kiran; Mahapatra, S.; Rao, Suryachandra A. [Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pashan, Pune (India)

2012-11-15

El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and Indian Summer Monsoon rainfall features are explored statistically and dynamically using National Centers for Environment Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System (CFSv1) freerun in relation to observations. The 100 years of freerun provides a sufficiently long homogeneous data set to find out the mean state, periodicity, coherence among these climatic events and also the influence of ENSO and IOD on the Indian monsoon. Differences in the occurrence of seasonal precipitation between the observations and CFS freerun are examined as a coupled ocean-atmosphere system. CFS simulated ENSO and IOD patterns and their associated tropical Walker and regional Hadley circulation in pure ENSO (PEN), pure IOD (PIO) and coexisting ENSO-IOD (PEI) events have some similarity to the observations. PEN composites are much closer to the observation as compared to PIO and PEI composites, which suggest a better ENSO prediction and its associated teleconnections as compared to IOD and combined phenomenon. Similar to the observation, the model simulation also show that the decrease in the Indian summer monsoon rainfall during ENSO phases is associated with a descending motion of anomalous Walker circulation and the increase in the Indian summer monsoon rainfall during IOD phase is associated with the ascending branch of anomalous regional Hadley circulation. During co-existing ENSO and IOD years, however, the fate of Indian summer monsoon is dictated by the combined influence of both of them. The shift in the anomalous descending and ascending branches of the Walker and Hadley circulation may be somewhat attributed to the cold (warm) bias over eastern (western) equatorial Indian Ocean basin, respectively in the model. This study will be useful for identifying some of the limitations of the CFS model and consequently it will be helpful in improving the model to unravel the realistic coupled ocean-atmosphere interactions

Reanalysis of the Indian summer monsoon: four dimensional data assimilation of AIRS retrievals in a regional data assimilation and modeling framework

Science.gov (United States)

Attada, Raju; Parekh, Anant; Chowdary, J. S.; Gnanaseelan, C.

2018-04-01

This work is the first attempt to produce a multi-year downscaled regional reanalysis of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) operational analyses and Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) version 5 temperature and moisture retrievals in a regional model. Reanalysis of nine monsoon seasons (2003-2011) are produced in two parallel setups. The first set of experiments simply downscale the original NCEP operational analyses, whilst the second one assimilates the AIRS temperature and moisture profiles. The results show better representation of the key monsoon features such as low level jet, tropical easterly jet, subtropical westerly jet, monsoon trough and the spatial pattern of precipitation when AIRS profiles are assimilated (compared to those without AIRS data assimilation). The distribution of temperature, moisture and meridional gradients of dynamical and thermodynamical fields over the monsoon region are better represented in the reanalysis that assimilates AIRS profiles. The change induced by AIRS data on the moist and thermodynamic conditions results in more realistic rendering of the vertical shear associated with the monsoon, which in turn leads to a proper moisture transport and the moist convective feedback. This feedback benefits the representation of the regional monsoon characteristics, the monsoon dynamics and the moist convective processes on the seasonal time scale. This study emphasizes the use of AIRS soundings for downscaling of ISM representation in a regional reanalysis.

Reanalysis of the Indian summer monsoon: four dimensional data assimilation of AIRS retrievals in a regional data assimilation and modeling framework

KAUST Repository

Attada, Raju

2017-07-04

This work is the first attempt to produce a multi-year downscaled regional reanalysis of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) operational analyses and Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) version 5 temperature and moisture retrievals in a regional model. Reanalysis of nine monsoon seasons (2003–2011) are produced in two parallel setups. The first set of experiments simply downscale the original NCEP operational analyses, whilst the second one assimilates the AIRS temperature and moisture profiles. The results show better representation of the key monsoon features such as low level jet, tropical easterly jet, subtropical westerly jet, monsoon trough and the spatial pattern of precipitation when AIRS profiles are assimilated (compared to those without AIRS data assimilation). The distribution of temperature, moisture and meridional gradients of dynamical and thermodynamical fields over the monsoon region are better represented in the reanalysis that assimilates AIRS profiles. The change induced by AIRS data on the moist and thermodynamic conditions results in more realistic rendering of the vertical shear associated with the monsoon, which in turn leads to a proper moisture transport and the moist convective feedback. This feedback benefits the representation of the regional monsoon characteristics, the monsoon dynamics and the moist convective processes on the seasonal time scale. This study emphasizes the use of AIRS soundings for downscaling of ISM representation in a regional reanalysis.

Aerosol and monsoon climate interactions over Asia: AEROSOL AND MONSOON CLIMATE INTERACTIONS

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Li, Zhanqing [State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology and College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing China; Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science and ESSIC, University of Maryland, College Park Maryland USA; Lau, W. K. -M. [Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science and ESSIC, University of Maryland, College Park Maryland USA; Ramanathan, V. [Department of Atmospheric and Climate Sciences, University of California, San Diego California USA; Wu, G. [Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing China; Ding, Y. [National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing China; Manoj, M. G. [Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science and ESSIC, University of Maryland, College Park Maryland USA; Liu, J. [Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science and ESSIC, University of Maryland, College Park Maryland USA; Qian, Y. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Li, J. [State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology and College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing China; Zhou, T. [Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing China; Fan, J. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Rosenfeld, D. [Institute of Earth Sciences, Hebrew University, Jerusalem Israel; Ming, Y. [Geophysical Fluid Dynamic Laboratory, NOAA, Princeton New Jersey USA; Wang, Y. [Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena California USA; Huang, J. [College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou China; Wang, B. [Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Hawaii, Honolulu Hawaii USA; School of Atmospheric Physics, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing China; Xu, X. [Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing China; Lee, S. -S. [Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science and ESSIC, University of Maryland, College Park Maryland USA; Cribb, M. [Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science and ESSIC, University of Maryland, College Park Maryland USA; Zhang, F. [State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology and College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing China; Yang, X. [State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology and College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing China; Zhao, C. [State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology and College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing China; Takemura, T. [Research Institute for Applied Mechanics, Kyushu University, Fukuoka Japan; Wang, K. [State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology and College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing China; Xia, X. [Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing China; Yin, Y. [School of Atmospheric Physics, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing China; Zhang, H. [National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing China; Guo, J. [Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing China; Zhai, P. M. [Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing China; Sugimoto, N. [National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba Japan; Babu, S. S. [Space Physics Laboratory, Vikram Sarabhai Space Centre, Thiruvananthapuram India; Brasseur, G. P. [Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg Germany

2016-11-15

Asian monsoons and aerosols have been studied extensively which are intertwined in influencing the climate of Asia. This paper provides a comprehensive review of ample studies on Asian aerosol, monsoon and their interactions. The region is the primary source of aerosol emissions of varies species, influenced by distinct weather and climatic regimes. On continental scale, aerosols reduce surface insolation and weaken the land-ocean thermal contrast, thus inhibiting the development of monsoons. Locally, aerosol radiative effects alter the thermodynamic stability and convective potential of the lower atmosphere leading to reduced temperatures, increased atmospheric stability, and weakened wind and atmospheric circulation. The atmospheric thermodynamic state may also be altered by the aerosol serving as cloud condensation nuclei or ice nuclei. Many mechanisms have been put forth regarding how aerosols modulate the amplitude, frequency, intensity, and phase of numerous monsoon climate variables. A wide range of theoretical, observational, and modeling findings on the Asian monsoon, aerosols, and their interactions are synthesized. A new paradigm is proposed on investigating aerosol-monsoon interactions, in which natural aerosols such as desert dust, black carbon from biomass burning, and biogenic aerosols from vegetation are considered integral components of an intrinsic aerosol-monsoon climate system, subject to external forcings of global warming, anthropogenic aerosols, and land use and change. Future research on aerosol-monsoon interactions calls for an integrated approach and international collaborations based on long-term sustained observations, process measurements, and improved models, as well as using observations to constrain model simulations and projections.

Multi-Satellite Synergy for Aerosol Analysis in the Asian Monsoon Region

Science.gov (United States)

Ichoku, Charles; Petrenko, Maksym

2012-01-01

Atmospheric aerosols represent one of the greatest uncertainties in environmental and climate research, particularly in tropical monsoon regions such as the Southeast Asian regions, where significant contributions from a variety of aerosol sources and types is complicated by unstable atmospheric dynamics. Although aerosols are now routinely retrieved from multiple satellite Sensors, in trying to answer important science questions about aerosol distribution, properties, and impacts, researchers often rely on retrievals from only one or two sensors, thereby running the risk of incurring biases due to sensor/algorithm peculiarities. We are conducting detailed studies of aerosol retrieval uncertainties from various satellite sensors (including Terra-/ Aqua-MODIS, Terra-MISR, Aura-OMI, Parasol-POLDER, SeaWiFS, and Calipso-CALIOP), based on the collocation of these data products over AERONET and other important ground stations, within the online Multi-sensor Aerosol Products Sampling System (MAPSS) framework that was developed recently. Such analyses are aimed at developing a synthesis of results that can be utilized in building reliable unified aerosol information and climate data records from multiple satellite measurements. In this presentation, we will show preliminary results of. an integrated comparative uncertainly analysis of aerosol products from multiple satellite sensors, particularly focused on the Asian Monsoon region, along with some comparisons from the African Monsoon region.

Model study of the impacts of emissions, chemical and dynamical processes on the CO variability in the tropical upper troposphere and lower stratosphere

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chunxiao Wang

2015-07-01

Full Text Available The Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM is used to investigate the relative importance of CO emissions, chemical and dynamical processes on temporal variations of CO in the tropical upper troposphere (UT and the lower stratosphere (LS. The semi-annual oscillation (SAO in the tropical UT and the annual oscillation (AO in the tropical LS detected in the MLS CO observations can be well captured by the model. The model simulations reveal that the CO surface emissions explain most of the SAO signals in the tropical UT, with the remainder being attributed to dynamical and chemical processes. The CO AO in the LS primarily results from combined effects of dynamical and chemical processes while the dynamical and chemical processes make opposite contributions to the CO AO signals, consistent with the previous findings. Our analysis further reveals that CO surface emissions tend to weaken the amplitude of the CO annual cycle in the tropical LS, while the annual variations in the meridional component of the Brewer–Dobson (BD circulation can amplify the annual variations of CO above 30 hPa. The model simulations also indicate that the CO annual cycle in the LS has a mixed behaviour with the annual variations of tropical upwelling reflected in CO between ~70 and ~50 hPa and a standard tape-recorder signal above 50 hPa. Moreover, the AO signals of CO exist up to 10 hPa when the chemical processes are switched off. The temporal and spatial variations of CO in the UT and near the tropopause are mainly driven by the upward transport of CO by tropical deep convection and the Asian summer monsoon circulation. In the early stage of the South Asian summer monsoon over the Bay of Bengal and the South China in the late spring and early summer, the transport of the CO surface emissions over Southeast Asia by the South Asian summer monsoon leads to an increase in the tropical CO, but the horizontal transport from the extratropics into the tropics (termed in

Global energetics and local physics as drivers of past, present and future monsoons

Science.gov (United States)

Biasutti, Michela; Voigt, Aiko; Boos, William R.; Braconnot, Pascale; Hargreaves, Julia C.; Harrison, Sandy P.; Kang, Sarah M.; Mapes, Brian E.; Scheff, Jacob; Schumacher, Courtney; Sobel, Adam H.; Xie, Shang-Ping

2018-06-01

Global constraints on momentum and energy govern the variability of the rainfall belt in the intertropical convergence zone and the structure of the zonal mean tropical circulation. The continental-scale monsoon systems are also facets of a momentum- and energy-constrained global circulation, but their modern and palaeo variability deviates substantially from that of the intertropical convergence zone. The mechanisms underlying deviations from expectations based on the longitudinal mean budgets are neither fully understood nor simulated accurately. We argue that a framework grounded in global constraints on energy and momentum yet encompassing the complexities of monsoon dynamics is needed to identify the causes of the mismatch between theory, models and observations, and ultimately to improve regional climate projections. In a first step towards this goal, disparate regional processes must be distilled into gross measures of energy flow in and out of continents and between the surface and the tropopause, so that monsoon dynamics may be coherently diagnosed across modern and palaeo observations and across idealized and comprehensive simulations. Accounting for zonal asymmetries in the circulation, land/ocean differences in surface fluxes, and the character of convective systems, such a monsoon framework would integrate our understanding at all relevant scales: from the fine details of how moisture and energy are lifted in the updrafts of thunderclouds, up to the global circulations.

Stalagmite-derived Last Glacial Maximum - Mid Holocene Indian Monsoon Record from Krem Mawmluh, Meghalaya, NE India

Science.gov (United States)

Lone, M. A.; Routh, J.; Kumar, V.; Mangini, A.; Rangarajan, R.; Ghosh, P.; Munnuru Singamshetty, K.; Shen, C. C.; Ahmad, S. M.; Mii, H. S.

2016-12-01

Seasonal reversals in monsoon winds strongly influence rainfall patterns on the Indian sub-continent regulating the socio-economy of south Asian region. High-resolution centennial-millennial scale records of climate change from the core zone of the monsoon impacted region are nonetheless very few. Here, we report Indian summer monsoon (ISM) variability record from an 87-cm long stalagmite (KM-1) from Krem Mawmluh in the Khasi Hills, Meghalaya. The absolute dated stalagmite record ranges from 22.7 (LGM) to 6.7 ka (Mid Holocene), revealing last glacial-interglacial paleoclimatic changes over the Indian sub-continent. A sharp change in δ18O ( 5‰) and growth rate post Younger Dryas (YD) is marked by continued rapid speleogenesis in KM-1 and coincides with monsoon intensification during the early Holocene. Prominent multi-centennial to millennial scale dry phases in ISM activity are observed from LGM to YD. During early to mid-Holocene, the record shows significant multi-decadal to centennial scale changes. The high frequency δ18O variations referring to abrupt changes in ISM activity are believed to be driven by changes in temperature and shifting of Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone.

The Summer Monsoon of 1987.

Science.gov (United States)

Krishnamurti, T. N.; Bedi, H. S.; Subramaniam, M.

1989-04-01

In this paper we have examined the evolution of a number of parameters we believe were important for our understanding of the drought over India during the summer of 1987. The list of parameters includes monthly means or anomalies of the following fields: sea surface temperatures, divergent circulations, outgoing longwave radiation, streamfunction of the lower and upper troposphere, and monthly precipitation (expressed as a percentage departure from a long-term mean). The El Niño related warm sea surface temperature anomaly and a weaker warm sea surface temperature anomaly over the equatorial Indian Ocean provide sustained convection, as reflected by the negative values of the outgoing longwave radiation. With the seasonal heating, a pronounced planetary-scale divergent circulation evolved with a center along the western Pacific Ocean. The monsoonal divergent circulation merged with that related to the El Niño, maintaining most of the heavy rainfall activity between the equatorial Pacific Ocean and east Asia. Persistent convective activity continued south of India during the entire monsoon season. Strong Hadley type overturnings with rising motions over these warm SST anomaly regions and descent roughly near 20° to 25°S was evident as early as April 1987. The subtropical high pressure areas near 20° to 25°S showed stronger than normal circulations. This was revealed by the presence of a counterclockwise streamfunction anomaly at 850 mb during April 1987. With the seasonal heating, this anomaly moved northwards and was located over the Arabian Sea and India. This countermonsoon circulation anomaly at the low levels was associated with a weaker than normal Somali jet and Arabian Sea circulation throughout this summer. The monsoon remained active along northeast India, Bangladesh, northern lndochina, and central China during the summer monsoon season. This was related to the eastward shift of the divergent circulation. An eastward shift of the upper tropospheric

Decoding the drivers of bank erosion on the Mekong river: The roles of the Asian monsoon, tropical storms, and snowmelt.

Science.gov (United States)

Darby, Stephen E; Leyland, Julian; Kummu, Matti; Räsänen, Timo A; Lauri, Hannu

2013-04-01

We evaluate links between climate and simulated river bank erosion for one of the world's largest rivers, the Mekong. We employ a process-based model to reconstruct multidecadal time series of bank erosion at study sites within the Mekong's two main hydrological response zones, defining a new parameter, accumulated excess runoff (AER), pertinent to bank erosion. We employ a hydrological model to isolate how snowmelt, tropical storms and monsoon precipitation each contribute to AER and thus modeled bank erosion. Our results show that melt (23.9% at the upstream study site, declining to 11.1% downstream) and tropical cyclones (17.5% and 26.4% at the upstream and downstream sites, respectively) both force significant fractions of bank erosion on the Mekong. We also show (i) small, but significant, declines in AER and hence assumed bank erosion during the 20th century, and; (ii) that significant correlations exist between AER and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Of these modes of climate variability, we find that IOD events exert a greater control on simulated bank erosion than ENSO events; but the influences of both ENSO and IOD when averaged over several decades are found to be relatively weak. However, importantly, relationships between ENSO, IOD, and AER and hence inferred river bank erosion are not time invariant. Specifically, we show that there is an intense and prolonged epoch of strong coherence between ENSO and AER from the early 1980s to present, such that in recent decades derived Mekong River bank erosion has been more strongly affected by ENSO.

Identification of tipping elements of the Indian Summer Monsoon using climate network approach

Science.gov (United States)

Stolbova, Veronika; Surovyatkina, Elena; Kurths, Jurgen

2015-04-01

Spatial and temporal variability of the rainfall is a vital question for more than one billion of people inhabiting the Indian subcontinent. Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) rainfall is crucial for India's economy, social welfare, and environment and large efforts are being put into predicting the Indian Summer Monsoon. For predictability of the ISM, it is crucial to identify tipping elements - regions over the Indian subcontinent which play a key role in the spatial organization of the Indian monsoon system. Here, we use climate network approach for identification of such tipping elements of the ISM. First, we build climate networks of the extreme rainfall, surface air temperature and pressure over the Indian subcontinent for pre-monsoon, monsoon and post-monsoon seasons. We construct network of extreme rainfall event using observational satellite data from 1998 to 2012 from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM 3B42V7) and reanalysis gridded daily rainfall data for a time period of 57 years (1951-2007) (Asian Precipitation Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards the Evaluation of Water Resources, APHRODITE). For the network of surface air temperature and pressure fields, we use re-analysis data provided by the National Center for Environmental Prediction and National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR). Second, we filter out data by coarse-graining the network through network measures, and identify tipping regions of the ISM. Finally, we compare obtained results of the network analysis with surface wind fields and show that occurrence of the tipping elements is mostly caused by monsoonal wind circulation, migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and Westerlies. We conclude that climate network approach enables to select the most informative regions for the ISM, providing realistic description of the ISM dynamics with fewer data, and also help to identify tipping regions of the ISM. Obtained tipping elements deserve a

Seasonal Scale Convective-Stratiform Pricipitation Variabilities at Tropics

Science.gov (United States)

S, Sreekanth T.

begin{center} Large Seasonal Scale Convective-Stratiform Pricipitation Variabilities at Tropics Sreekanth T S*, Suby Symon*, G. Mohan Kumar (1) and V Sasi Kumar (2) *Centre for Earth Science Studies, Akkulam, Thiruvananthapuram (1) D-330, Swathi Nagar, West Fort, Thiruvananthapuram 695023 (2) 32. NCC Nagar Peroorkada, Thiruvananthapuram ABSTRACT This study investigates the variabilities of convective and stratiform rainfall from 2011 to 2013 at a tropical coastal station in three seasons viz Pre-Monsoon (March-May), Monsoon (June-September) and Post-Monsoon (October-December). Understanding the climatological variability of these two dominant forms of precipitation and their implications in the total rainfall were the main objectives of this investigation. Variabilities in the frequency & duration of events, rain rate & total number of rain drops distribution in different events and the accumulated amount of rain water were analysed. Based on the ground & radar observations from optical & impact disdrometers, Micro Rain Radar and Atmospheric Electric Field Mill, precipitation events were classified into convective and stratiform in three seasons. Classification was done by the method followed by Testud et al (2001) and as an additional information electrical behaviour of clouds from Atmospheric Electric Field Mill is also used. Events which could not be included in both types were termed as 'mixed precipitation' and were included separately. Diurnal variability of the total rainfall in each seasons were also examined. For both convective and stratiform rainfall there exist distinct day-night differences. During nocturnal hours convective rain draged more attention. In all seasons almost 70% of rain duration and 60% of rain events of convective origin were confined to nocturnal hours. But stratiform rain was not affected by diurnal variations greatly because night time occurrences of stratiform duration and events were less than 50%. Also in Monsoon above 35% of

Enhancement of vegetation-rainfall feedbacks on the Australian summer monsoon by the Madden-Julian Oscillation

Science.gov (United States)

Notaro, Michael

2018-01-01

A regional climate modeling analysis of the Australian monsoon system reveals a substantial modulation of vegetation-rainfall feedbacks by the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), both of which operate at similar sub-seasonal time scales, as evidence that the intensity of land-atmosphere interactions is sensitive to the background atmospheric state. Based on ensemble experiments with imposed modification of northern Australian leaf area index (LAI), the atmospheric responses to LAI anomalies are composited for negative and positive modes of the propagating MJO. In the regional climate model (RCM), northern Australian vegetation feedbacks are characterized by evapotranspiration (ET)-driven rainfall responses, with the moisture feedback mechanism dominating over albedo and roughness feedback mechanisms. During November-April, both Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission and RCM data reveal MJO's pronounced influence on rainfall patterns across northern Australia, tropical Indian Ocean, Timor Sea, Arafura Sea, and Gulf of Carpentaria, with the MJO dominating over vegetation feedbacks in terms of regulating monsoon rainfall variability. Convectively-active MJO phases support an enhancement of positive vegetation feedbacks on monsoon rainfall. While the MJO imposes minimal regulation of ET responses to LAI anomalies, the vegetation feedback-induced responses in precipitable water, cloud water, and rainfall are greatly enhanced during convectively-active MJO phases over northern Australia, which are characterized by intense low-level convergence and efficient precipitable water conversion. The sub-seasonal response of vegetation-rainfall feedback intensity to the MJO is complex, with significant enhancement of rainfall responses to LAI anomalies in February during convectively-active MJO phases compared to minimal modulation by the MJO during prior and subsequent calendar months.

Impact of the intraseasonal variability of large-scale circulation over the Western North Pacific on the characteristics of tropical cyclone track

OpenAIRE

Chen, T. C.; Wang, Shih-Yu (Simon); Yen, M. C.; Clark, A. J.

2009-01-01

The life cycle of the Southeast Asian–western North Pacific monsoon circulation is established by the northward migrations of the monsoon trough and the western Pacific subtropical anticyclone, and is reflected by the intraseasonal variations of mo nsoon westerlies and trad e easterlies in the form of an east–west seesaw oscillation. In this paper, an effort is made to disclose the influence of this monsoon circulation on tropical cyclone tracks during its different ph ases using composite ch...

Monsoonal impact on planktonic standing stock and abundance in a tropical estuary (Cochin backwaters - India)

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Madhu, N.V.; Jyothibabu, R; Balachandran, K.K.; Honey, U.K.; Martin, G.D.; Vijay, J.G.; Shiyas, C.A.; Gupta, G.V.M.; Achuthankutty, C.T.

and post monsoon seasons, but became low during premonsoon season (<5). Hence, it is suggested that during the periods of fresh water dominance, the trophic food web of Cochin estuarine system is characterized by substantial amount of unconsumed carbon...

Atmospheric polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) and Pb isotopes at a remote site in Southwestern China: Implications for monsoon-associated transport

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Xu, Yue; Zhang, Gan; Li, Jun; Liu, Xiang; Li, Xiangdong

2011-01-01

A 13-month sampling campaign was conducted at a remote site in southwestern China from October, 2005 to December, 2006. An integrated approach with lead isotopes and air back trajectory analysis was used to investigate the monsoon-associated atmospheric transport of PBDEs in tropical/subtropical Asia regions. The air concentration of PBDEs ranged from 1.6 to 57.5 pg m -3 (15.9 ± 12.0 pg m -3 ), comparable to reported levels at other remote sites in the world. BDE-209, followed by BDE-47 and -99 dominated the PBDE compositions, indicating a mixed deca- and penta-BDE source. Air mass back trajectory analysis revealed that the major potential source regions of BDE-47 and -99 could be southern China and Thailand, while those of BDE-209 are widely distributed in industrialized and urbanized areas in tropical Asia. The different lead isotope compositions of aerosols between trajectory clusters further substantiated the observation that the South Asian monsoon from spring to summer could penetrate deep into southwestern China, and facilitate long-range transport of airborne pollutants from South Asia. - Highlights: →The atmospheric levels of PBDEs and Pb isotopic ratios at a remote site were reported. →Significant high concentrations of BDE-47 and -99 were observed when air masses came from China and Southeast Asia. →High concentrations of BDE-209 and low Pb isotopic ratios were associated with Indian monsoon. →The onset of monsoon could facilitate long-range transport of airborne pollutants from South Asia.

Radiative effects of black carbon aerosols on Indian monsoon: a study using WRF-Chem model

Science.gov (United States)

Soni, Pramod; Tripathi, Sachchida Nand; Srivastava, Rajesh

2018-04-01

The Weather Research and Forecasting model with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) is utilized to examine the radiative effects of black carbon (BC) aerosols on the Indian monsoon, for the year 2010. Five ensemble simulations with different initial conditions (1st to 5th December, 2009) were performed and simulation results between 1st January, 2010 to 31st December, 2010 were used for analysis. Most of the BC which stays near the surface during the pre-monsoon season gets transported to higher altitudes with the northward migration of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) during the monsoon season. In both the seasons, strong negative SW anomalies are present at the surface along with positive anomalies in the atmosphere, which results in the surface cooling and lower tropospheric heating, respectively. During the pre-monsoon season, lower troposphere heating causes increased convection and enhanced meridional wind circulation, bringing moist air from Indian Ocean and Bay of Bengal to the North-East India, leading to increased rainfall there. However, during the monsoon season, along with cooling over the land regions, a warming over the Bay of Bengal is simulated. This differential heating results in an increased westerly moisture flux anomaly over central India, leading to increased rainfall over northern parts of India but decreased rainfall over southern parts. Decreased rainfall over southern India is also substantiated by the presence of increased evaporation over Bay of Bengal and decrease over land regions.

Quasi-biweekly oscillations of the South Asian monsoon and its co-evolution in the upper and lower troposphere

Science.gov (United States)

Ortega, Sebastián; Webster, Peter J.; Toma, Violeta; Chang, Hai-Ru

2017-11-01

The Upper Tropospheric Quasi-Biweekly Oscillation (UQBW) of the South Asian monsoon is studied using the potential vorticity field on the 370 K isentrope. The UQBW is shown to be a common occurrence in the upper troposphere during the monsoon, and its typical evolution is described. We suggest that the UQBW is a phenomenon of both the middle and tropical latitudes, owing its existence to the presence of the planetary-scale upper-tropospheric monsoon anticyclone. The UQBW is first identified as Rossby waves originating in the northern flank of the monsoon anticyclone. These Rossby waves break when reaching the Pacific Ocean, and their associated cyclonic PV anomalies move southward to the east of Asia and then westward across the Indian Ocean and Africa advected by the monsoon anticyclone. A strong correlation, or co-evolution, between the UQBW and quasi-biweekly oscillations in the lower troposphere (QBW) is also found. In particular, analysis of vertically-integrated horizontal moisture transport, 850 hPa geopotential, and outgoing long-wave radiation show that the UQBW is usually observed at the same time as, and co-evolves with, the lower tropospheric QBW over South Asia. We discuss the nature of the UQBW, and its possible physical link with the QBW.

Summer monsoon rainfall variability over North East regions of India and its association with Eurasian snow, Atlantic Sea Surface temperature and Arctic Oscillation

Science.gov (United States)

Prabhu, Amita; Oh, Jaiho; Kim, In-won; Kripalani, R. H.; Mitra, A. K.; Pandithurai, G.

2017-10-01

This observational study during the 29-year period from 1979 to 2007 evaluates the potential role of Eurasian snow in modulating the North East-Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall with a lead time of almost 6 months. This link is manifested by the changes in high-latitude atmospheric winter snow variability over Eurasia associated with Arctic Oscillation (AO). Excessive wintertime Eurasian snow leads to an anomalous cooling of the overlying atmosphere and is associated with the negative mode of AO, inducing a meridional wave-train descending over the tropical north Atlantic and is associated with cooling of this region. Once the cold anomalies are established over the tropical Atlantic, it persists up to the following summer leading to an anomalous zonal wave-train further inducing a descending branch over NE-India resulting in weak summer monsoon rainfall.

Realism of modelled Indian summer monsoon correlation with the tropical Indo-Pacific affects projected monsoon changes.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Ziguang; Lin, Xiaopei; Cai, Wenju

2017-07-10

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) tend to exert an offsetting impact on Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR), with an El Niño event tending to lower, whereas a positive IOD tending to increase ISMR. Simulation of these relationships in Phase Five of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project has not been fully assessed, nor is their impact on the response of ISMR to greenhouse warming. Here we show that the majority of models simulate an unrealistic present-day IOD-ISMR correlation due to an overly strong control by ENSO. As such, a positive IOD is associated with an ISMR reduction in the simulated present-day climate. This unrealistic present-day correlation is relevant to future ISMR projection, inducing an underestimation in the projected ISMR increase. Thus uncertainties in ISMR projection can be in part induced by present-day simulation of ENSO, the IOD, their relationship and their rainfall correlations.

On the relationship between Indian monsoon withdrawal and Iran's fall precipitation onset

Science.gov (United States)

Babaeian, Iman; Rezazadeh, Parviz

2017-09-01

Indian monsoon is the most prominent of the world's monsoon systems which primarily affects synoptic patterns of India and adjacent countries such as Iran in interaction with large-scale weather systems. In this article, the relationship between the withdrawal date of the Indian monsoon and the onset of fall precipitation in Iran has been studied. Data included annual time series of withdrawal dates of the Indian monsoon prepared by the Indian Institute for Tropical Meteorology, and time series of the first date of 25 mm accumulated precipitation over Iran's synoptic weather stations in a 10-day period which is the basis for the cultivation date. Both time series were considered in Julian calendar with the starting date on August 1. The studied period is 1960-2014 which covers 55 years of data from 36 meteorological stations in Iran. By classifying the withdrawal dates of the Indian monsoon in three stages of late, normal, and early withdrawals, its relation with the onset of fall precipitation in western, southwestern, southern, eastern, central, and northern regions of Iran was studied. Results demonstrated that in four out of the six mentioned regions, the late withdrawal of the Indian monsoon postpones the onset of fall precipitation over Iran. No significant relation was found between the onset of fall precipitation in central region of Iran and the monsoon's withdrawal date. In the western, southwestern, southern, and eastern regions of Iran, the late monsoon delays the onset of fall's precipitation; while in the south Caspian Sea coastal area, it causes the early onset of autumnal precipitation. The lag in onset of fall precipitation in Iran which is coordinated with the late withdrawal of monsoon is accompanied with prolonged subtropical high settling over Iran's plateau that prevents the southward movement of polar jet frontal systems. Such conditions enhance northerly wind currents over the Caspian Sea which, in turn, increase the precipitation in Caspian

Monsoon signatures in trace gas records from Cape Rama, India

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bhattacharya, S.K.; Jani, R.A.; Borole, D.V.; Francey, R.J.; Allison, C.E.; Masarie, K.A.

2002-01-01

Concentrations of trace gases CO 2 , CH 4 , CO, N 2 O and H 2 , and the stable carbon and oxygen isotopic composition of CO 2 have been measured in air samples collected from Cape Rama, a coastal station on the west coast of India, since 1993. The data show clear signatures of continental and oceanic air mass resulting in complex seasonal variation of trace gas characteristics. The regional atmospheric circulation in the Indian Ocean and Arabian Sea undergoes biannual reversal in low-level winds associated with the yearly migration of the inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ). From June to September, the wind is from the equatorial Indian Ocean to the Indian subcontinent (southwest monsoon) and brings in pristine marine air. From December to February, dry continental winds blow from the northeast and transport continental emissions to the ocean (northeast monsoon). Detailed transport and chemical modelling will be necessary to interpret these records, however the potential to identify and constrain the regional trace gas emissions appears to be high. (author)

Hybrid insolation forcing of Pliocene monsoon dynamics in West Africa

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. R. Kuechler

2018-01-01

Full Text Available The Pliocene is regarded as a potential analogue for future climate with conditions generally warmer-than-today and higher-than-preindustrial atmospheric CO2 levels. Here we present the first orbitally resolved records of continental hydrology and vegetation changes from West Africa for two Pliocene time intervals (5.0–4.6 Ma, 3.6–3.0 Ma, which we compare with records from the last glacial cycle (Kuechler et al., 2013. Our results indicate that changes in local insolation alone are insufficient to explain the full degree of hydrologic variations. Generally two modes of interacting insolation forcings are observed: during eccentricity maxima, when precession was strong, the West African monsoon was driven by summer insolation; during eccentricity minima, when precession-driven variations in local insolation were minimal, obliquity-driven changes in the summer latitudinal insolation gradient became dominant. This hybrid monsoonal forcing concept explains orbitally controlled tropical climate changes, incorporating the forcing mechanism of latitudinal gradients for the Pliocene, which probably increased in importance during subsequent Northern Hemisphere glaciations.

Macrofouling community development at tropical coastal environment (New Mangalore Port, West Coast of India)

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Venkat, K.; Anil, A.C.; Wagh, A.B.

Recruitment of macrofouling community in tropical waters is generalised as an year round phenomenon. Of course localities which are influenced by seasonal variation in fresh water run-off, mainly during monsoon could be exceptions. In order...

Wet tropical climate in SE Tibet during the Late Eocene.

Science.gov (United States)

Sorrel, Philippe; Eymard, Ines; Leloup, Philippe-Herve; Maheo, Gweltaz; Olivier, Nicolas; Sterb, Mary; Gourbet, Loraine; Wang, Guocan; Jing, Wu; Lu, Haijian; Li, Haibing; Yadong, Xu; Zhang, Kexin; Cao, Kai; Chevalier, Marie-Luce; Replumaz, Anne

2017-08-10

Cenozoic climate cooling at the advent of the Eocene-Oligocene transition (EOT), ~33.7 Ma ago, was stamped in the ocean by a series of climatic events albeit the impact of this global climatic transition on terrestrial environments is still fragmentary. Yet archival constraints on Late Eocene atmospheric circulation are scarce in (tropical) monsoonal Asia, and the paucity of terrestrial records hampers a meaningful comparison of the long-term climatic trends between oceanic and continental realms. Here we report new sedimentological data from the Jianchuan basin (SE Tibet) arguing for wetter climatic conditions in monsoonal Asia at ~35.5 Ma almost coevally to the aridification recognized northwards in the Xining basin. We show that the occurrence of flash-flood events in semi-arid to sub-humid palustrine-sublacustrine settings preceded the development of coal-bearing deposits in swampy-like environments, thus paving the way to a more humid climate in SE Tibet ahead from the EOT. We suggest that this moisture redistribution possibly reflects more northern and intensified ITCZ-induced tropical rainfall in monsoonal Asia around 35.5 Ma, in accordance with recent sea-surface temperature reconstructions from equatorial oceanic records. Our findings thus highlight an important period of climatic upheaval in terrestrial Asian environments ~2-4 millions years prior to the EOT.

Role of changed Indo-Pacific atmospheric circulation in the recent disconnect between the Indian summer monsoon and ENSO

Science.gov (United States)

Feba, F.; Ashok, K.; Ravichandran, M.

2018-04-01

We explore the decadal variability of teleconnection from tropical Pacific to the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) using various observational and Reanalysis datasets for the period 1958-2008. In confirmation with the earlier findings, we find that the interannual correlations between the various SST indices of ENSO and ISMR have continued to weaken. Interestingly, we find that even the robust lead correlations of the tropical pacific warm-water-volume with ISMR have weakened since late 1970s. Our analysis suggests that there is a relative intensification of the cross-equatorial flow from the southern hemisphere into the equatorial Indian Ocean associated with ISMR due to strenghtening of Mascarene High. Further, a shift in the surface wind circulation associated with monsoon over the northern pacific since late 1970s has resulted in a strenghtened cyclonic seasonal circulation south-east of Japan. These changed circulation features are a shift from the known circulation-signatures that efficiently teleconnect El Niño forcing to South Asia. These recent changes effectively weakened the teleconnection of the El Niño to ISMR.

The Indian Monsoon

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

Pacific Oceans, on subseasonal scales of a few days and on an interannual scale. ... over the Indian monsoon zone2 (Figure 3) during the summer monsoon .... each 500 km ×500 km grid over the equatorial Indian Ocean, Bay of Bengal and ...

Spring Arctic Oscillation-East Asian summer monsoon connection through circulation changes over the western North Pacific

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gong, Dao-Yi; Yang, Jing; Hu, Miao [Beijing Normal University, State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing (China); Kim, Seong-Joong [Korea Polar Research Institute, Incheon (Korea, Republic of); Gao, Yongqi [Nansen-Zhu International Research Center, IAP/CAS, Beijing (China); Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center/Bjerknes Center for Climate Research, Bergen (Norway); Guo, Dong [Beijing Normal University, State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing (China); Nansen-Zhu International Research Center, IAP/CAS, Beijing (China); Zhou, Tianjun [State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), IAP/CAS, Beijing (China)

2011-12-15

In the present study the links between spring Arctic Oscillation (AO) and East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) was investigated with focus on the importance of the North Pacific atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperature (SST). To reduce the statistical uncertainty, we analyzed high-pass filtered data with the inter-annual time scales, and excluded the El Nino/Southern Oscillation signals in the climate fields using a linear fitting method. The significant relationship between spring AO and EASM are supported by the changes of multi-monsoon components, including monsoon indices, precipitation, and three-dimensional atmospheric circulations. Following a stronger positive spring AO, an anomalous cyclonic circulation at 850 hPa appears in southeastern Asia and the western North Pacific in summer, with the easterly anomalies spanning from the Pacific to Asian continent along 25 N-30 N and the westerly anomalies south of 15 N. At the same time, the summer western North Pacific subtropical high becomes weaker. Consistently, the positive precipitation anomalies are developed over a broad region south of 30 N stretching from southern China to the western Pacific and the negative precipitation anomalies appear in the lower valley of the Yangtze River and southern Japan. The anomalous cyclone in the western North Pacific persisting from spring to summer plays a key role in modulating EASM and monsoon precipitation by a positive air-sea feedback mechanism. During spring the AO-associated atmospheric circulation change produces warmer SSTs between 150 E-180 near the equator. The anomalous sensible and latent heating, in turn, intensifies the cyclone through a Gill-type response of the atmosphere. Through this positive feedback, the tropical atmosphere and SST patterns sustain their strength from spring to summer, that consequently modifies the monsoon trough and the western North Pacific subtropical high and eventually the EASM precipitation. Moreover, the SST response to

Tropical influence on boreal summer mid-latitude stationary waves

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Douville, Herve [Meteo-France/CNRM-GAME, Toulouse (France); CNRM/GMGEC/VDR, Toulouse (France); Bielli, S.; Deque, M.; Tyteca, S.; Voldoire, A. [Meteo-France/CNRM-GAME, Toulouse (France); Cassou, C. [CNRS-Cerfacs, Toulouse (France); Hall, N.M.J. [CNES/LEGOS, Toulouse (France)

2011-11-15

While organized tropical convection is a well-known source of extratropical planetary waves, state-of-the-art climate models still show serious deficiencies in simulating accurately the atmospheric response to tropical sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies and the associated teleconnections. In the present study, the remote influence of the tropical atmospheric circulation is evaluated in ensembles of global boreal summer simulations in which the Arpege-Climat atmospheric General Circulation Model (GCM) is nudged towards 6-h reanalyses. The nudging is applied either in the whole tropical band or in a regional summer monsoon domain. Sensitivity tests to the experimental design are first conducted using prescribed climatological SST. They show that the tropical relaxation does not improve the zonal mean extratropical climatology but does lead to a significantly improved representation of the mid-latitude stationary waves in both hemispheres. Low-pass filtering of the relaxation fields has no major effect on the model response, suggesting that high-frequency tropical variability is not responsible for extratropical biases. Dividing the nudging strength by a factor 10 only decreases the magnitude of the response. Model errors in each monsoon domain contribute to deficiencies in the model's mid-latitude climatology, although an exaggerated large-scale subsidence in the central equatorial Pacific appears as the main source of errors for the representation of stationary waves in the Arpege-Climat model. Case studies are then conducted using either climatological or observed SST. The focus is first on summer 2003 characterized by a strong and persistent anticyclonic anomaly over western Europe. This pattern is more realistic in nudging experiments than in simulations only driven by observed SST, especially when the nudging domain is centred over Central America. Other case studies also show a significant tropical forcing of the summer mid-latitude stationary waves

Deglaciation in the tropical Indian Ocean driven by interplay between the regional monsoon and global teleconnections

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Saraswat, R.; Lea, D.W.; Nigam, R.; Mackensen, A.; Naik, Dinesh K.

High resolution climate records of the ice age terminations from monsoon-dominated regions reveal the interplay of regional and global driving forces. Speleothem records from Chinese caves indicate that glacial terminations were interrupted...

The Asian-Australian Monsoon and El Niño-Southern Oscillation in the NCAR Climate System Model*.

Science.gov (United States)

Meehl, Gerald A.; Arblaster, Julie M.

1998-06-01

Features associated with the Asian-Australian monsoon system and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are described in the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) global coupled Climate System Model (CSM). Simulation characteristics are compared with a version of the atmospheric component of the CSM, the NCAR CCM3, run with time-evolving SSTs from 1950 to 1994, and with observations. The CSM is shown to represent most major features of the monsoon system in terms of mean climatology, interannual variability, and connections to the tropical Pacific. This includes a representation of the Southern Oscillation links between strong Asian-Australian monsoons and associated negative SST anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific. The equatorial SST gradient across the Pacific in the CSM is shown to be similar to the observed with somewhat cooler mean SSTs across the entire Pacific by about 1°-2°C. The seasonal cycle of SSTs in the eastern equatorial Pacific has the characteristic signature seen in the observations of relatively warmer SSTs propagating westward in the first half of the year followed by the reestablishment of the cold tongue with relatively colder SSTs propagating westward in the second half of the year. Like other global coupled models, the propagation is similar to the observed but with the establishment of the relatively warmer water in the first half of the year occurring about 1-2 months later than observed. The seasonal cycle of precipitation in the tropical eastern Pacific is also similar to other global coupled models in that there is a tendency for a stronger-than-observed double ITCZ year round, particularly in northern spring, but with a well-reproduced annual maximum of ITCZ strength north of the equator in the second half of the year. Time series of area-averaged SSTs for the NINO3 region in the eastern equatorial Pacific show that the CSM is producing about 60% of the amplitude of the observed variability in that region, consistent

Nutrient biogeochemistry of the eastern Arabian Sea during the southwest monsoon retreat

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

George, R; Muraleedharan, K.R; Martin, G.D.; Sabu, P.; Gerson, V.J.; Dineshkumar, P.K.; Nair, S.M.; Chandramohanakumar, N.; Nair, K.K.C.

and adjoining southeastern Arabian Sea. Curr Sci 96:364–375 Jyothibabu R, Madhu NV, Jayalakshmi KV, Balachandran KK, Shiyas CA, Martin GD, Nair KKC (2006) Impact of freshwater influx on microzooplankton mediated food web in a tropical estuary (Cochin backwaters... ARTICLE Nutrient biogeochemistry of the eastern Arabian Sea during the southwest monsoon retreat Rejomon George • K. R. Muraleedharan • G. D. Martin • P. Sabu • Vijay John Gerson • P. K. Dineshkumar • S. M. Nair • N. Chandramohanakumar • K. K. C. Nair...

Decreasing Asian summer monsoon intensity after 1860 AD in the global warming epoch

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Xu, Hai [Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology, Xi' an, Shaanxi Province (China); Hong, Yetang; Hong, Bin [Institute of Geochemistry, Chinese Academy of Sciences, State Key Laboratory of Environmental Geochemistry, Guiyang (China)

2012-10-15

The trend of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) intensity and its nature during the past 100 and 200 years still remain unclear. In this study we reconstructed the ISM intensity during the past 270 years from tree ring {delta}{sup 18}O at Hongyuan, eastern edge of the Tibet Plateau. The monsoon failures inferred from {delta}{sup 18}O{sub tree} {sub ring} correlate well with those recorded in ice cores, speleothem, and historical literature sources. 22.6, 59.0, and 110.9-years frequency components in the Hongyuan {delta}{sup 18}O{sub tree} {sub ring} series, which may be the responses to solar activities, synchronize well with those recorded in other ISM indices. A notable feature of the reconstructed ISM intensity is the gradually decreasing trend from about 1860 to the present, which is inversely related to the increasing temperature trend contemporaneously. Such ''decreasing ISM intensity-increasing temperature'' tendency can also be supported by ice core records and meteorological records over a wide geographic extension. The decrease in sea surface temperature gradient between tropical and north Indian Ocean, and the decrease in land-sea thermal contrast between tropical Indian Ocean and ''Indian sub-continent-western Himalaya'' are possibly responsible for the observed decreasing ISM trend. (orig.)

Orbital-scale nonlinear response of East Asian summer monsoon to its potential driving forces in the late Quaternary

Science.gov (United States)

Yi, Liang; Shi, Zhengguo; Tan, Liangcheng; Deng, Chenglong

2018-03-01

We conducted a statistical study to characterize the nonlinear response of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) to its potential forcing factors over the last 260 ka on orbital timescales. We find that both variation in solar insolation and global ice volume were responsible for the nonlinear forcing of orbital-scale monsoonal variations, accounting for 80% of the total variance. Specifically, EASM records with dominated precession variance exhibit a more sensitive response to changes in solar insolation during intervals of enhanced monsoon strength, but are less sensitive during intervals of reduced monsoon strength. In the case of global ice volume with 100-ka variance, this difference is not one of sensitivity but rather a difference in baseline conditions, such as the relative areas of land and sea which affected the land-sea thermal gradient. We therefore suggest that EASM records with dominated precession variance recorded the signal of a shift in the location of the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone, and the associated changes in the incidence of torrential rainfall; while for proxies with dominated 100-ka variance, it recorded changes in the land-sea thermal gradient via its effects on non-torrential precipitation.

An Intrathermocline Eddy and a tropical cyclone in the Bay of Bengal

OpenAIRE

Gordon, Arnold L.; Shroyer, Emily; Murty, V. S. N.

2017-01-01

The Bay of Bengal, subjected to monsoonal forcing and tropical cyclones, displays a complex field of ocean eddies. On 5 December 2013 a sub-surface vortex or Intrathermocline Eddy (ITE) composed of water characteristic of the Andaman Sea was observed within the thermocline of the western Bay of Bengal. We propose that the ITE was the product of Tropical Cyclone Lehar interaction on 27 November 2013 with a westward propagating surface eddy from the eastern Bay of Bengal. While Lehar?s interact...

The Diurnal Cycle of the Boundary Layer, Convection, Clouds, and Surface Radiation in a Coastal Monsoon Environment (Darwin Australia)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

May, Peter T.; Long, Charles N.; Protat, Alain

2012-08-01

The diurnal variation of convection and associated cloud and radiative properties remains a significant issue in global NWP and climate models. This study analyzes observed diurnal variability of convection in a coastal monsoonal environment examining the interaction of convective rain clouds, their associated cloud properties, and the impact on the surface radiation and corresponding boundary layer structure during periods where convection is suppressed or active on the large scale. The analysis uses data from the Tropical Warm Pool International Cloud Experiment (TWP-ICE) as well as routine measurements from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program. Both active monsoonal and large-scale suppressed (buildup and break) conditions are examined and demonstrate that the diurnal variation of rainfall is much larger during the break periods and the spatial distribution of rainfall is very different between the monsoon and break regimes. During the active monsoon the total net radiative input to the surface is decreased by more than 3 times the amount than during the break regime - this total radiative cloud forcing is found to be dominated by the shortwave (SW) cloud effects because of the much larger optical thicknesses and persistence of long-lasting anvils and cirrus cloud decks associated with the monsoon regime. These differences in monsoon versus break surface radiative energy contribute to low-level air temperature differences in the boundary layer over the land surfaces.

Energetics and monsoon bifurcations

Science.gov (United States)

Seshadri, Ashwin K.

2017-01-01

Monsoons involve increases in dry static energy (DSE), with primary contributions from increased shortwave radiation and condensation of water vapor, compensated by DSE export via horizontal fluxes in monsoonal circulations. We introduce a simple box-model characterizing evolution of the DSE budget to study nonlinear dynamics of steady-state monsoons. Horizontal fluxes of DSE are stabilizing during monsoons, exporting DSE and hence weakening the monsoonal circulation. By contrast latent heat addition (LHA) due to condensation of water vapor destabilizes, by increasing the DSE budget. These two factors, horizontal DSE fluxes and LHA, are most strongly dependent on the contrast in tropospheric mean temperature between land and ocean. For the steady-state DSE in the box-model to be stable, the DSE flux should depend more strongly on the temperature contrast than LHA; stronger circulation then reduces DSE and thereby restores equilibrium. We present conditions for this to occur. The main focus of the paper is describing conditions for bifurcation behavior of simple models. Previous authors presented a minimal model of abrupt monsoon transitions and argued that such behavior can be related to a positive feedback called the `moisture advection feedback'. However, by accounting for the effect of vertical lapse rate of temperature on the DSE flux, we show that bifurcations are not a generic property of such models despite these fluxes being nonlinear in the temperature contrast. We explain the origin of this behavior and describe conditions for a bifurcation to occur. This is illustrated for the case of the July-mean monsoon over India. The default model with mean parameter estimates does not contain a bifurcation, but the model admits bifurcation as parameters are varied.

Seasonal variation in the incidence of preeclampsia and eclampsia in tropical climatic conditions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Subramaniam Vidya

2007-10-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Observational studies have demonstrated various correlations between hypertensive disorders of pregnancy and different weather parameters. We aim to study if a correlation exists between the incidence of eclampsia and pre-eclampsia and various weather parameters in the tropical coastal city of Mumbai which has the distinction of having relatively uniform meteorological variables all throughout the year, except for the monsoon season. Methods We retrospectively analysed data from a large maternity centre in Mumbai, India over a period of 36 months from March 1993 to February 1996, recording the incidence of preeclampsia and eclampsia. Meteorological data was acquired from the regional meteorological centre recording the monthly average temperature, humidity, barometric pressure and rainfall during the study period. Study period was then divided into two climate conditions: monsoon season (June to August and dry season September to May. The incidence of preeclampsia and eclampsia and the meteorological differences between the two seasons were compared. Results Over a 36-month period, a total of 29562 deliveries were recorded, of which 1238 patients developed preeclampsia (4.18% and 34 developed eclampsia (0.11%. The incidence of preeclampsia did not differ between the monsoon and the dry season (4.3% vs. 4.15%, p = 0.5. The incidence of eclampsia was significantly higher in the monsoon (0.2% vs. 0.08%, p = 0.01. The monsoon was significantly cooler (median maximum temperature 30.7°C vs. 32.3°C, p = 0.01, more humid (median relative humidity 85% vs. 70%, p = 0.0008, and received higher rainfall (median 504.9 mm vs. 0.3 mm, p = 0.0002 than the rest of the year. The median barometric pressure (1005 mb during the monsoon season was significantly lower than the rest of the year (1012 mb, p Conclusion In the tropical climate of Mumbai, the incidence of eclampsia is significantly higher in monsoon, when the weather is cooler and

The Indian Monsoon

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

user

and led to the expectation that the impact of the monsoon on the ... a lead time of 10 days to a month for rainfall, temperature, etc., ... trying to predict, such as clouds or a monsoon depression (in ... occur because (i) the models are not perfect (involving many ... ally at many centres in the world, long-range predictions are.

Summer monsoon circulation and precipitation over the tropical Indian Ocean during ENSO in the NCEP climate forecast system

Science.gov (United States)

Chowdary, J. S.; Chaudhari, H. S.; Gnanaseelan, C.; Parekh, Anant; Suryachandra Rao, A.; Sreenivas, P.; Pokhrel, S.; Singh, P.

2014-04-01

This study investigates the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections to tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) and their relationship with the Indian summer monsoon in the coupled general circulation model climate forecast system (CFS). The model shows good skill in simulating the impact of El Niño over the Indian Oceanic rim during its decay phase (the summer following peak phase of El Niño). Summer surface circulation patterns during the developing phase of El Niño are more influenced by local Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies in the model unlike in observations. Eastern TIO cooling similar to that of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is a dominant model feature in summer. This anomalous SST pattern therefore is attributed to the tendency of the model to simulate more frequent IOD events. On the other hand, in the model baroclinic response to the diabatic heating anomalies induced by the El Niño related warm SSTs is weak, resulting in reduced zonal extension of the Rossby wave response. This is mostly due to weak eastern Pacific summer time SST anomalies in the model during the developing phase of El Niño as compared to observations. Both eastern TIO cooling and weak SST warming in El Niño region combined together undermine the ENSO teleconnections to the TIO and south Asia regions. The model is able to capture the spatial patterns of SST, circulation and precipitation well during the decay phase of El Niño over the Indo-western Pacific including the typical spring asymmetric mode and summer basin-wide warming in TIO. The model simulated El Niño decay one or two seasons later, resulting long persistent warm SST and circulation anomalies mainly over the southwest TIO. In response to the late decay of El Niño, Ekman pumping shows two maxima over the southern TIO. In conjunction with this unrealistic Ekman pumping, westward propagating Rossby waves display two peaks, which play key role in the long-persistence of the TIO warming in the model (for more than a

The Global Monsoon as Seen through the Divergent Atmospheric Circulation.

Science.gov (United States)

Trenberth, Kevin E.; Stepaniak, David P.; Caron, Julie M.

2000-11-01

20% of the variance, features relatively shallow but vigorous overturning with the maximum vertical velocities near 800 mb, outflow from 750 to 350 mb, and inflow peaking at 925 mb. It is especially strong over Africa where the shallow, mostly meridional overturning migrates back and forth across the equator with the seasons. It influences the Middle East, has a signature over Australia, and is also an important component of the overturning in the tropical eastern Pacific and Atlantic, and thus of the convergence zones in these regions.The relationship of the global monsoon to the regional monsoons is described over six zonal sectors: Africa, Australia-Asia, North America, South America, and the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. Only the two ocean areas do not undergo a seasonal reversal required for monsoons, although they have direct overturning cells and they nevertheless participate in the global monsoon through the changes in large-scale overturning. The regional meridional cross sections highlight the importance of the shallow overturning cell in lower-troposphere monsoon activity. The steadiness of the overturning circulation is determined by comparing the signal of the seasonal mean vertical motions at 500 mb with the standard deviation of the transient daily variations. Locations where this signal exceeds 60% of the daily noise correspond closely with the regional centers of the monsoon.

Effects of volcanic eruptions on China's monsoon precipitation over the past 700 years

Science.gov (United States)

Zhuo, Z.; Gao, C.

2013-12-01

Tropical volcanic eruptions were found to affect precipitation especially in Asia and Africa monsoon region. However, studies with different types of eruptions suggested different impacts as well as the spatial patterns. In this study, we combined the Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas (MADA, [Cook et al., 2010]) and the Chinese Historical Drought Disaster Index (CHDDI) compiled from the historic meteorological records to study the effect of volcanic eruptions on China's monsoon precipitation over the past 700 years. Histories of past volcanism were compiled from the IVI2[Gao et al., 2008] and Crowley2013[Crowley and Unterman, 2013] reconstructions. Volcanic events were classified into 2×Pinatubo, 1×Pinatubo , ≥5 Tg sulfate aerosols injection in the northern hemisphere (NH) stratosphere for IVI2; and NH sulfate flux more than 20/15/10/5 kg km-2 for Crowley2013. In both cases, average MADA show a drying trend over mainland China from year zero(0) to year three(+3) after the eruption; and the more sulfate aerosol injected into the NH stratosphere or the larger the sulfate flux, the more severe this drying trend seem to reveal. In comparison, a wetting trend was found in the eruption year with Southern Hemisphere (SH) only injections. Superposed epoch analysis with a 10,000 Monte Carlo resampling procedure showed that 97.9% (96.9%) of the observed MADA values are statistically significant at the 95% (99%) confidence level. The drying is probably caused by a reduction of the latent heat flux due to volcanic aerosol' cooling effect, leading to the weakening of south Asian monsoon and decrease of moisture vapor over tropical oceans, which contribute to a reduced moisture flux over china. Spatial distribution of the average MADA show a southward movement of the driest areas in eastern China from year zero to year three after the 1×Pinatubo and 2×Pinatubo eruptions, whereas part of north china experienced unusual wetting condition. This is in good agreement with CHDDI, which

Tropical Hydroclimate Change during Heinrich Stadial 1: An Integrative Proxy-Model Synthesis

Science.gov (United States)

Lawman, A. E.; Sun, T.; Shanahan, T. M.; Di Nezio, P. N.; Gomez, K.; Piatrunia, N.; Sun, C.; Wu, X.; Kageyama, M.; Merkel, U.; Otto-Bliesner, B. L.; Abe-Ouchi, A.; Lohmann, G.; Singarayer, J. S.

2017-12-01

We explore the response of tropical climate to abrupt cooling of the North Atlantic (NA) during Heinrich Stadial 1 (HS1) combining paleoclimate proxies with model simulations. A total of 146 published paleoclimate records from tropical locations are used to categorize whether HS1 was wetter, drier, or unchanged relative to a deglacial baseline state. Only records with sufficient resolution to resolve HS1 and sufficient length to characterize the deglacial trend are considered. This synthesis reveals large-scale patterns of hydroclimate change relative to glacial conditions, confirming previously reported weaker Indian summer monsoon, a wetter southern Africa, and drying over the Caribbean. Our synthesis also reveals large-scale drying over the Maritime continent as well as wetter conditions in northern Australia and southern tropical South America. Our reinterpretation of the available proxy data reveals far more complexity and uncertainties for equatorial East Africa, a region that appears to straddle a pattern of dryer conditions to the north and wetter conditions to the south. Overall, these patterns of hydroclimate change depart from a southward shift of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), particularly outside the tropical Atlantic. We explore mechanisms driving these changes using a multi-model ensemble of "hosing" simulations performed relative to glacial conditions. The models show robust weakening of the Afro-Asian Monsoon, which we attribute to ventilation of colder mid-latitude air. Not all models simulate the remaining patterns inferred from the proxy data. The best-agreeing models indicate that cooling over the tropical NA and the Caribbean may be essential to communicate the response to the global tropics. This response can induce warming over the tropical South Atlantic via the wind-evaporation-SST feedback, driving wetter conditions in South Africa and tropical South America. Cooling over the Caribbean is communicated to the Pacific over the

Relationship between summer monsoon rainfall and cyclogenesis over Bay of Bengal during post-monsoon (October-December) season

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Sadhuram, Y; Maneesha, K.

peak monsoon (October–November) season and concluded that the frequency of cyclones is modulated by negative and positive IOD rather than El-Nino and La-Nina. In this study, the relationship between southwest monsoon rainfall (June–September) and TNDC... Relationship between summer monsoon rainfall and cyclogenesis over Bay of Bengal during post-monsoon (October–December) season Y Sadhuram∗ and K Maneesha CSIR–National Institute of Oceanography, 176, Lawsons Bay Colony, Visakhapatnam 530 017, India...

On the relationship between the Indian summer monsoon rainfall and the EQUINOO in the CFSv2

Science.gov (United States)

Vishnu, S.; Francis, P. A.; Ramakrishna, S. S. V. S.; Shenoi, S. S. C.

2018-03-01

Several recent studies have shown that positive (negative) phase of Equatorial Indian Ocean Oscillation (EQUINOO) is favourable (unfavourable) to the Indian summer monsoon. However, many ocean-atmosphere global coupled models, including the state-of-the-art Climate Forecast System (CFS) version 2 have difficulty in reproducing this link realistically. In this study, we analyze the retrospective forecasts by the CFS model for the period 1982-2010 with an objective to identify the reasons behind the failure of the model to simulate the observed links between Indian summer monsoon and EQUINOO. It is found that, in the model hindcasts, the rainfall in the core monsoon region was mainly due to westward propagating synoptic scale systems, that originated from the vicinity of the tropical convergence zone (TCZ). Our analysis shows that unlike in observations, in the CFS, majority of positive (negative) EQUINOO events are associated with El Niño (La Niña) events in the Pacific. In addition to this, there is a strong link between EQUINOO and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) in the model. We show that, during the negative phase of EQUINOO/IOD, northward propagating TCZs remained stationary over the Bay of Bengal for longer period compared to the positive phase of EQUINOO/IOD. As a result, compared to the positive phase of EQUINOO/IOD, during a negative phase of EQUINOO/IOD, more westward propagating synoptic scale systems originated from the vicinity of TCZ and moved on to the core monsoon region, which resulted in higher rainfall over this region in the CFS. We further show that frequent, though short-lived, westward propagating systems, generated near the vicinity of TCZ over the Bay moved onto the mainland were responsible for less number of break monsoon spells during the negative phase of EQUINOO/IOD in the model hindcasts. This study underlines the necessity for improving the skill of the coupled models, particularly CFS model, to simulate the links between EQUINOO/IOD and

Regionally heterogeneous paleoenvironmental responses in the West African and South American monsoon systems on glacial to millennial timescales

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Shanahan, T. M.; Hughen, K. A.; van Mooy, B.; Overpeck, J. T.; Baker, P. A.; Fritz, S.; Peck, J. A.; Scholz, C. A.; King, J. W.

2008-12-01

Although millennial-scale paleoenvironmental changes have been well characterized for high latitude sites, short-term climate variability in the tropics is less well understood. While the Intertropical Convergence Zone may act as an integrator of tropical climate changes, regional factors also play an important role in controlling the tropical response to climate forcing. Understanding these influences, and how they modulate the response to global climate forcing under different mean climate states is thus important for assessing how the tropics may respond to future climate change. Here, we examine new centennial-resolution records of paleoenvironmental change from isotopic and relative abundance data from molecular biomarkers in sediment cores from Lake Bosumtwi and Lake Titicaca. We assess the relative response of the West African and South American monsoon systems to millennial and suborbital-scale climate variability over the last ca. 30,000 years. While there is evidence for synchronous climate variability in the two systems, the dominant paleoenvironmental changes appear largely decoupled, highlighting the importance of regional climatology in controlling the response to climate forcing in tropical regions.

The distribution of the annual and semiannual cycles in the tropics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sumathipala, W.L.

1992-06-01

The distributions of annual and semiannual cycles in the tropics are studied using outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR), and FGGE level III b wind data. Amplitudes and variances of first and second harmonics (in the time domain) of low level zonal wind (U) are largest over monsoon regions of the eastern hemisphere and account for more than 80% of the variance. The first harmonic of OLR shows largest amplitudes over the continental regions between 10-15 degrees from the equator. The first harmonics of both low-level wind and OLR show standing character. The second and third harmonics of U are characterized by cross equatorial and clockwise phase propagation. All three harmonics are ''phase locked'' in the monsoon region of the eastern hemisphere during summer. Amplitude of the first harmonic of low level meridonal wind (V) is prominent at the Somalia coast and Malaysia. Amplitude variations of first and second harmonics of upper level zonal wind exhibit the response of subtropical jet streams to monsoon and inter-monsoon convective activity. Fairly strong amplitudes of OLR are found over the equatorial land areas where rainfall is maximum during the transition periods. (author). 15 refs, 7 figs

Global monsoons in the mid-Holocene and oceanic feedback

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Liu, Z.; Kutzbach, J. [Center for Climatic Research, University of Wisconsin-Madison, 1225 W. Dayton Street, Madison, WI 53706 (United States); Harrison, S.P. [Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, P.O. Box 100164, 07701 Jena (Germany); Otto-Bliesner, B. [National Center for Atmospheric Research, PO Box 3000, Boulder, CO 80307 (United States)

2004-03-01

The response of the six major summer monsoon systems (the North American monsoon, the northern Africa monsoon, the Asia monsoon, the northern Australasian monsoon, the South America monsoon and the southern Africa monsoon) to mid-Holocene orbital forcing has been investigated using a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (FOAM), with the focus on the distinct roles of the direct insolation forcing and oceanic feedback. The simulation result is also found to compare well with the NCAR CSM. The direct effects of the change in insolation produce an enhancement of the Northern Hemisphere monsoons and a reduction of the Southern Hemisphere monsoons. Ocean feedbacks produce a further enhancement of the northern Africa monsoon and the North American monsoon. However, ocean feedbacks appear to weaken the Asia monsoon, although the overall effect (direct insolation forcing plus ocean feedback) remains a strengthened monsoon. The impact of ocean feedbacks on the South American and southern African monsoons is relatively small, and therefore these regions, especially the South America, experienced a reduced monsoon regime compared to present. However, there is a strong ocean feedback on the northern Australian monsoon that negates the direct effects of orbital changes and results in a strengthening of austral summer monsoon precipitation in this region. A new synthesis is made for mid-Holocene paleoenvironmental records and is compared with the model simulations. Overall, model simulations produce changes in regional climates that are generally consistent with paleoenvironmental observations. (orig.)

Asian monsoon variability, cyclicities, and forcing mechanisms

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Naidu, P.D.

in monsoonal intensity from 5 to 2Ma. Uplift of the Himalayas and the Tibetan Plateau occurred coeval with the increase in strength of the Asian Monsoon between 9.5 and 5Ma. Variability of monsoon on glacial and interglacial time scale Multi proxy based... in the Western Ghats of India 131 Fig. 3. Multi proxy monsoon reconstructions show that summer monsoon strength was stronger during interglacials (shaded intervals) as compared to glacials 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 0 100 200 300 400 0 50...

Interannual Variability, Global Teleconnection, and Potential Predictability Associated with the Asian Summer Monsoon

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Lau, K. M.; Kim, K. M.; Li, J. Y.

2001-01-01

In this Chapter, aspects of global teleconnections associated with the interannual variability of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) are discussed. The basic differences in the basic dynamics of the South Asian Monsoon and the East Asian monsoon, and their implications on global linkages are discussed. Two teleconnection modes linking ASM variability to summertime precipitation over the continental North America were identified. These modes link regional circulation and precipitation anomalies over East Asia and continental North America, via coupled atmosphere-ocean variations over the North Pacific. The first mode has a large zonally symmetrical component and appears to be associated with subtropical jetstream variability and the second mode with Rossby wave dispersion. Both modes possess strong sea surface temperature (SST) expressions in the North Pacific. Results show that the two teleconnection modes may have its origin in intrinsic modes of sea surface temperature variability in the extratropical oceans, which are forced in part by atmospheric variability and in part by air-sea interaction. The potential predictability of the ASM associated with SST variability in different ocean basins is explored using a new canonical ensemble correlation prediction scheme. It is found that SST anomalies in tropical Pacific, i.e., El Nino, is the most dominant forcing for the ASM, especially over the maritime continent and eastern Australia. SST anomalies in the India Ocean may trump the influence from El Nino in western Australia and western maritime continent. Both El Nino, and North Pacific SSTs contribute to monsoon precipitation anomalies over Japan, southern Korea, northern and central China. By optimizing SST variability signals from the world ocean basins using CEC, the overall predictability of ASM can be substantially improved.

Water vapour source impacts on oxygen isotope variability in tropical precipitation during Heinrich events

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S. C. Lewis

2010-06-01

Full Text Available Water isotope records such as speleothems provide extensive evidence of past tropical hydrological changes. During Heinrich events, isotopic changes in monsoon regions have been interpreted as implying a widespread drying through the Northern Hemisphere tropics and an anti-phased precipitation response in the south. Here, we examine the sources of this variability using a water isotope-enabled general circulation model, Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE. We incorporate a new suite of vapour source distribution tracers to help constrain the impact of precipitation source region changes on the isotopic composition of precipitation and to identify nonlocal amount effects. We simulate a collapse of the North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation with a large freshwater input to the region as an idealised analogue to iceberg discharge during Heinrich events. An increase in monsoon intensity, defined by vertical wind shear, is modelled over the South American domain, with small decreases simulated over Asia. Simulated isotopic anomalies agree well with proxy climate records, with lighter isotopic values simulated over South America and enriched values across East Asia. For this particular abrupt climate event, we identify which climatic change is most likely linked to water isotope change – changes in local precipitation amount, monsoon intensity, water vapour source distributions or precipitation seasonality. We categorise individual sites according to the climate variability that water isotope changes are most closely associated with, and find that the dominant isotopic controls are not consistent across the tropics – simple local explanations, in particular, fall short of explaining water isotope variability at all sites. Instead, the best interpretations appear to be site specific and often regional in scale.

The tropospheric biennial oscillation defined by a biennial mode of sea surface temperature and its impact on the atmospheric circulation and precipitation in the tropical eastern Indo-western Pacific region

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Kim, Jinju; Kim, Kwang-Yul

2016-10-01

Temporal and spatial patterns of anomalous atmospheric circulation and precipitation over the Indo-Pacific region are analyzed in conjunction with the Tropospheric Biennial Oscillation as represented by the biennial mode of sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA). The biennial components of key variables are identified independently of other variability via CSEOF analysis. Then, its impact on the Asian-Australian monsoon is examined. The biennial mode exhibits a seasonally distinctive atmospheric response over the tropical eastern Indo-western Pacific (EIWP) region (90°-150°E, 20°S-20°N). In boreal summer, local meridional circulation is a distinguishing characteristic over the tropical EIWP region, whereas a meridionally expanded branch of intensified zonal circulation develops in austral summer. Temporally varying evolution and distinct timing of SSTA phase transition in the Indian and Pacific Oceans is considered a main factor for this variation of circulation in the tropical EIWP region. The impact of the biennial mode is not the same between the two seasons, with different impacts over ocean areas in Asian monsoon and Australian monsoon regions.

The response of East Asian Summer Monsoon to a Global Warming Scenario

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Stan, C.; Jin, Y.

2016-12-01

The response of East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) to the abrupt quadrupling of atmospheric CO2 concentration is investigated using the Super-Parameterized Community Climate Model, version 4 (SP-CCSM4). The EASM precipitation and circulation intensify in response to global warming and these changes are related to the westward extension of the Western North Pacific Subtropical High (WNPSH). The displacement of WNPSH is caused by two mechanisms: i) the increase of sea surface temperature and ii) the reduction of latent heat flux over the South China Sea and adjacent western Pacific Ocean. The changes in the surface fluxes over the tropics induce a Gill-type anti-cyclonic circulation to the north of the heating anomaly and a Rossy wave train from the tropics into the midlatitude Pacific Ocean. The westerly anomalies on the northern side of the anticyclone strengthen the southwesterly flow on the western edge of WNPSH. This flow further affects the wind anomalies and moisture transport over East Asia.

Potential regulation on the climatic effect of Tibetan Plateau heating by tropical air-sea coupling in regional models

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Ziqian; Duan, Anmin; Yang, Song

2018-05-01

Based on the conventional weather research and forecasting (WRF) model and the air-sea coupled mode WRF-OMLM, we investigate the potential regulation on the climatic effect of Tibetan Plateau (TP) heating by the air-sea coupling over the tropical Indian Ocean and western Pacific. Results indicate that the TP heating significantly enhances the southwesterly monsoon circulation over the northern Indian Ocean and the South Asia subcontinent. The intensified southwesterly wind cools the sea surface mainly through the wind-evaporation-SST (sea surface temperature) feedback. Cold SST anomaly then weakens monsoon convective activity, especially that over the Bay of Bengal, and less water vapor is thus transported into the TP along its southern slope from the tropical oceans. As a result, summer precipitation decreases over the TP, which further weakens the TP local heat source. Finally, the changed TP heating continues to influence the summer monsoon precipitation and atmospheric circulation. To a certain extent, the air-sea coupling over the adjacent oceans may weaken the effect of TP heating on the mean climate in summer. It is also implied that considerations of air-sea interaction are necessary in future simulation studies of the TP heating effect.

Failure of CMIP5 climate models in simulating post-1950 decreasing trend of Indian monsoon

Science.gov (United States)

Saha, Anamitra; Ghosh, Subimal; Sahana, A. S.; Rao, E. P.

2014-10-01

Impacts of climate change on Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) and the growing population pose a major threat to water and food security in India. Adapting to such changes needs reliable projections of ISMR by general circulation models. Here we find that, majority of new generation climate models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase5 (CMIP5) fail to simulate the post-1950 decreasing trend of ISMR. The weakening of monsoon is associated with the warming of Southern Indian Ocean and strengthening of cyclonic formation in the tropical western Pacific Ocean. We also find that these large-scale changes are not captured by CMIP5 models, with few exceptions, which is the reason of this failure. Proper representation of these highlighted geophysical processes in next generation models may improve the reliability of ISMR projections. Our results also alert the water resource planners to evaluate the CMIP5 models before using them for adaptation strategies.

Marine protected areas increase temporal stability of community structure, but not density or diversity, of tropical seagrass fish communities.

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Elisa Alonso Aller

Full Text Available Marine protected areas (MPAs have been shown to increase long-term temporal stability of fish communities and enhance ecosystem resilience to anthropogenic disturbance. Yet, the potential ability of MPAs to buffer effects of environmental variability at shorter time scales remains widely unknown. In the tropics, the yearly monsoon cycle is a major natural force affecting marine organisms in tropical regions, and its timing and severity are predicted to change over the coming century, with potentially severe effects on marine organisms, ecosystems and ecosystem services. Here, we assessed the ability of MPAs to buffer effects of monsoon seasonality on seagrass-associated fish communities, using a field survey in two MPAs (no-take zones and two unprotected (open-access sites around Zanzibar (Tanzania. We assessed the temporal stability of fish density and community structure within and outside MPAs during three monsoon seasons in 2014-2015, and investigated several possible mechanisms that could regulate temporal stability. Our results show that MPAs did not affect fish density and diversity, but that juvenile fish densities were temporally more stable within MPAs. Second, fish community structure was more stable within MPAs for juvenile and adult fish, but not for subadult fish or the total fish community. Third, the observed effects may be due to a combination of direct and indirect (seagrass-mediated effects of seasonality and, potentially, fluctuating fishing pressure outside MPAs. In summary, these MPAs may not have the ability to enhance fish density and diversity and to buffer effects of monsoon seasonality on the whole fish community. However, they may increase the temporal stability of certain groups, such as juvenile fish. Consequently, our results question whether MPAs play a general role in the maintenance of biodiversity and ecosystem functioning under changing environmental conditions in tropical seagrass fish communities.

CCN characteristics over a tropical coastal station during south-west monsoon: observations and closure studies

Science.gov (United States)

Jayachandran, V.; Nair, Vijayakumar S.; Babu, S. Suresh

2017-09-01

Number concentration measurements of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) at five supersaturation values between 0.2 and 1.0% were made from a coastal site (Thiruvananthapuram) of peninsular India using a single column CCN counter during the summer monsoon period (June-September) of 2013 and 2014. The CCN concentration over this site showed diurnal variations of high values during nighttime and low values during daytime in association with the change in mesoscale circulation patterns. The inter-annual variations of CCN (CCN0.4% = 2,232 ± 672 cm-3 during August 2013 and CCN0.4% = 941 ± 325 cm-3 during August 2014) are mostly associated with the varying intensity of monsoon rainfall. The variation of CCN number concentration with supersaturation is found to be steeper during nighttime (indicating a less CCN active aerosol system) than during daytime (CCN active system). The CCN activation ratio estimated using simultaneous measurements of CCN and aerosol number (CN) concentration clearly depict the role of land-sea breeze circulations with higher values during daytime than the nighttime. The CCN number concentration predicted for different supersaturations, from measured aerosol number size distribution using Kohler theory, indicate the importance of the change in aerosol composition associated with different airmasses in a coastal environment.

Indian summer monsoon rainfall variability during 2014 and 2015 and associated Indo-Pacific upper ocean temperature patterns

Science.gov (United States)

Kakatkar, Rashmi; Gnanaseelan, C.; Chowdary, J. S.; Parekh, Anant; Deepa, J. S.

2018-02-01

In this study, factors responsible for the deficit Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) rainfall in 2014 and 2015 and the ability of Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology-Global Ocean Data Assimilation System (IITM-GODAS) in representing the oceanic features are examined. IITM-GODAS has been used to provide initial conditions for seasonal forecast in India during 2014 and 2015. The years 2014 and 2015 witnessed deficit ISM rainfall but were evolved from two entirely different preconditions over Pacific. This raises concern over the present understanding of the role of Pacific Ocean on ISM variability. Analysis reveals that the mechanisms associated with the rainfall deficit over the Indian Subcontinent are different in the two years. It is found that remote forcing in summer of 2015 due to El Niño is mostly responsible for the deficit monsoon rainfall through changes in Walker circulation and large-scale subsidence. In the case of the summer of 2014, both local circulation with anomalous anticyclone over central India and intrusion of mid-latitude dry winds from north have contributed for the deficit rainfall. In addition to the above, Tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) sea surface temperature (SST) and remote forcing from Pacific Ocean also modulated the ISM rainfall. It is observed that Pacific SST warming has extended westward in 2014, making it a basin scale warming unlike the strong El Niño year 2015. The eastern equatorial Indian Ocean is anomalously warmer than west in summer of 2014, and vice versa in 2015. These differences in SST in both tropical Pacific and TIO have considerable impact on ISM rainfall in 2014 and 2015. The study reveals that initializing coupled forecast models with proper upper ocean temperature over the Indo-Pacific is therefore essential for improved model forecast. It is important to note that the IITM-GODAS which assimilates only array for real-time geostrophic oceanography (ARGO) temperature and salinity profiles could capture most of the

Pleistocene Indian Monsoon Rainfall Variability

Science.gov (United States)

Yirgaw, D. G.; Hathorne, E. C.; Giosan, L.; Collett, T. S.; Sijingeo, A. V.; Nath, B. N.; Frank, M.

2014-12-01

The past variability of the Indian Monsoon is mostly known from records of wind strength over the Arabian Sea. Here we investigate proxies for fresh water input and runoff in a region of strong monsoon precipitation that is a major moisture source for the east Asian Monsoon. A sediment core obtained by the IODP vessel JOIDES Resolution and a gravity core from the Alcock Seamount complex in the Andaman Sea are used to examine the past monsoon variability on the Indian sub-continent and directly over the ocean. The current dataset covers the last glacial and deglacial but will eventually provide a Pleistocene record. We utilise the ecological habitats of G. sacculifer and N. dutertrei to investigate the freshwater-induced stratification with paired Mg/Ca and δ18O analyses to estimate seawater δ18O (δ18Osw). During the last 60 kyrs, Ba/Ca ratios and δ18Osw values generally agree well between the two cores and suggest the weakest surface runoff and monsoon during the LGM and strongest monsoon during the Holocene. The difference in δ18O between the species, interpreted as a proxy for upper ocean stratification, implies stratification developed around 37 ka and remained relatively constant during the LGM, deglacial and Holocene. To investigate monsoon variability for intervals in the past, single shell Mg/Ca and δ18O analyses have been conducted. Mg/Ca ratios from individual shells of N. dutertrei suggest relatively small changes in temperature. However, individual N. dutertrei δ18O differ greatly between the mid-Holocene and samples from the LGM and a nearby core top. The mid-Holocene individuals have a greater range and large skew towards negative values indicating greater fresh water influence.

The Aerosol-Monsoon Climate System of Asia

Science.gov (United States)

Lau, William K. M.; Kyu-Myong, Kim

2012-01-01

In Asian monsoon countries such as China and India, human health and safety problems caused by air-pollution are worsening due to the increased loading of atmospheric pollutants stemming from rising energy demand associated with the rapid pace of industrialization and modernization. Meanwhile, uneven distribution of monsoon rain associated with flash flood or prolonged drought, has caused major loss of human lives, and damages in crop and properties with devastating societal impacts on Asian countries. Historically, air-pollution and monsoon research are treated as separate problems. However a growing number of recent studies have suggested that the two problems may be intrinsically intertwined and need to be studied jointly. Because of complexity of the dynamics of the monsoon systems, aerosol impacts on monsoons and vice versa must be studied and understood in the context of aerosol forcing in relationship to changes in fundamental driving forces of the monsoon climate system (e.g. sea surface temperature, land-sea contrast etc.) on time scales from intraseasonal variability (weeks) to climate change ( multi-decades). Indeed, because of the large contributions of aerosols to the global and regional energy balance of the atmosphere and earth surface, and possible effects of the microphysics of clouds and precipitation, a better understanding of the response to climate change in Asian monsoon regions requires that aerosols be considered as an integral component of a fully coupled aerosol-monsoon system on all time scales. In this paper, using observations and results from climate modeling, we will discuss the coherent variability of the coupled aerosol-monsoon climate system in South Asia and East Asia, including aerosol distribution and types, with respect to rainfall, moisture, winds, land-sea thermal contrast, heat sources and sink distributions in the atmosphere in seasonal, interannual to climate change time scales. We will show examples of how elevated

Boreal summer sub-seasonal variability of the South Asian monsoon in the Met Office GloSea5 initialized coupled model

Science.gov (United States)

Jayakumar, A.; Turner, A. G.; Johnson, S. J.; Rajagopal, E. N.; Mohandas, Saji; Mitra, A. K.

2017-09-01

Boreal summer sub-seasonal variability in the Asian monsoon, otherwise known as the monsoon intra-seasonal oscillation (MISO), is one of the dominant modes of intraseasonal variability in the tropics, with large impacts on total monsoon rainfall and India's agricultural production. However, our understanding of the mechanisms involved in MISO is incomplete and its simulation in various numerical models is often flawed. In this study, we focus on the objective evaluation of the fidelity of MISO simulation in the Met Office Global Seasonal forecast system version 5 (GloSea5), an initialized coupled model. We analyze a series of nine-member hindcasts from GloSea5 over 1996-2009 during the peak monsoon period (July-August) over the South-Asian monsoon domain focusing on aspects of the time-mean background state and air-sea interaction processes pertinent to MISO. Dominant modes during this period are evident in power spectrum analysis, but propagation and evolution characteristics of the MISO are not realistic. We find that simulated air-sea interactions in the central Indian Ocean are not supportive of MISO initiation in that region, likely a result of the low surface wind variance there. As a consequence, the expected near-quadrature phase relationship between SST and convection is not represented properly over the central equatorial Indian Ocean, and northward propagation from the equator is poorly simulated. This may reinforce the equatorial rainfall mean state bias in GloSea5.

Progress in tropical isotope dendroclimatology

Science.gov (United States)

Evans, M. N.; Schrag, D. P.; Poussart, P. F.; Anchukaitis, K. J.

2005-12-01

The terrestrial tropics remain an important gap in the growing high resolution proxy network used to characterize the mean state and variability of the hydrological cycle. Here we review early efforts to develop a new class of proxy paleorainfall/humidity indicators using intraseasonal to interannual-resolution stable isotope data from tropical trees. The approach invokes a recently published model of oxygen isotopic composition of alpha-cellulose, rapid methods for cellulose extraction from raw wood, and continuous flow isotope ratio mass spectrometry to develop proxy chronological, rainfall and growth rate estimates from tropical trees, even those lacking annual rings. Isotopically-derived age models may be confirmed for modern intervals using trees of known age, radiocarbon measurements, direct measurements of tree diameter, and time series replication. Studies are now underway at a number of laboratories on samples from Costa Rica, northwestern coastal Peru, Indonesia, Thailand, New Guinea, Paraguay, Brazil, India, and the South American Altiplano. Improved sample extraction chemistry and online pyrolysis techniques should increase sample throughput, precision, and time series replication. Statistical calibration together with simple forward modeling based on the well-observed modern period can provide for objective interpretation of the data. Ultimately, replicated data series with well-defined uncertainties can be entered into multiproxy efforts to define aspects of tropical hydrological variability associated with ENSO, the meridional overturning circulation, and the monsoon systems.

Convective environment in pre-monsoon and monsoon conditions over the Indian subcontinent: the impact of surface forcing

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L. Thomas

2018-05-01

Full Text Available Thermodynamic soundings for pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons from the Indian subcontinent are analysed to document differences between convective environments. The pre-monsoon environment features more variability for both near-surface moisture and free-tropospheric temperature and moisture profiles. As a result, the level of neutral buoyancy (LNB and pseudo-adiabatic convective available potential energy (CAPE vary more for the pre-monsoon environment. Pre-monsoon soundings also feature higher lifting condensation levels (LCLs. LCL heights are shown to depend on the availability of surface moisture, with low LCLs corresponding to high surface humidity, arguably because of the availability of soil moisture. A simple theoretical argument is developed and showed to mimic the observed relationship between LCLs and surface moisture. We argue that the key element is the partitioning of surface energy flux into its sensible and latent components, that is, the surface Bowen ratio, and the way the Bowen ratio affects surface buoyancy flux. We support our argument with observations of changes in the Bowen ratio and LCL height around the monsoon onset, and with idealized simulations of cloud fields driven by surface heat fluxes with different Bowen ratios.

Equatorially/globally conditioned meteorological analysis of heaviest monsoon rains over India during 23-28 July 2005

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Ranade, Ashwini; Singh, Nityanand

2018-06-01

The heaviest monsoon rainstorm of the period 1951-2007 over India occurred during 23-28 July 2005, mostly the peninsula received rainfall, and each day the rainwater over the country was 40.0 bcm (billion cubic meter) or more, highest 98.4 bcm fell on 25 July 2005. Present premise of monsoon genesis is that it evolves in association with spreading and intensification of equatorial atmospheric condition over Afro-Eurasian landmass and adjoining Indian and Pacific Oceans during boreal summer. Robust natural criteria have been applied to demarcate monsoon and other global weather regimes (GWRs) at standard levels (1000‒100 hPa). Global atmospheric (1000‒100 hPa) thermal condition and monsoon and general circulations during 23-28 July 2005 have been compared with normal features of respective parameters. Over tropics-subtropics (45°S-45°N), troposphere (1000‒250 hPa) was warmer-thicker and pressure lower than normal and mixed conditions of positive/negative departures in temperature, height/thickness and pressure over northern and southern mid-high latitudes. Noticeable changes in 3D monsoon structure were: horizontally spread and eastward-southward shifted over western North Pacific and stretched further southeastward across equatorial Pacific; intense warm-low lower tropospheric confluence-convergence across Asia-Pacific with vertical depth extending beyond 400 hPa; and intense warm-high upper tropospheric anticyclonic circulation zonally stretched and divided into three interconnected cells. Outflows from anticyclonic cells over Tibetan plateau and western North Pacific were mostly directed westward/southwestward/southward. Troposphere was warmer-thicker and pressure higher over eastern part of both subpolars-polars and cooler-thinner and pressure lower over western part. During the period, a deep cyclonic circulation moved from Bay of Bengal through central India while near-stationary atmospheric condition prevailed across the globe.

Flood moderation by large reservoirs in the humid tropics of Western ghat region of Kerala, India

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Abe, George [Centre for Water Resources Development and Management, Sub Centre, Kottayam South P.O, Kottayam-686 039, Kerala (India); James, E.J. [Water Institute and Dean (Research), Karunya University, Coimbatore-641 114, Tamil Nadu (India)

2013-07-01

Kerala State located in the humid tropics receives an average rainfall of 2810 mm. On an average 85% of this rainfall is received during the two monsoons spread from June to November. Midland and lowland regions of several of the river basins of Kerala experience severe flood events during the monsoons. Idamalayar hydro-electric project (1987) in Periyar River basin envisages flood control apart from power generation. This paper analyzes the flood moderation by Idamalayar reservoir considering the storage regime (inflow and outflow) which is subjected to a strong inter annual variability. The role of Idamalayar reservoir in controlling the monsoon floods is analyzed using daily data (1987-2010). The results of analysis show that the flood moderation by the reservoir is 92% when water storage is less than 50%. The reduction is 87% when reservoir storage is between 50 to 90% and moderation reduces to 62% when the reservoir storage is above 90%. Non-parametric trend analysis of fifty years of hydrologic data shows a reducing trend in inflow and storage during south-west monsoon which reduced spill and subsequent flood events during north-east monsoon.

A climate model study of an intense Asian Monsoon in a La Niña-like climate of MIS-13

Science.gov (United States)

Karami, M. P.; Berger, A.; Herold, N.; Yin, Q. Z.

2012-04-01

Studying the paleo-monsoon during past interglacials is a valuable approach to improve our understanding of the monsoon system in present-day and future climates. We focus on Marine Isotopic stage 13 (MIS-13; ~0.5 Ma) which was a relatively cool interglacial, but with a paradoxically intense monsoonal precipitation over eastern and southern Asia. Our main goal is to understand the physics-based mechanism driving the intense monsoon, specifically the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM), during MIS-13. We applied both an intermediate complexity model (LOVECLIM) as well as fully coupled general circulation models (HadCM3 and CCSM3) to simulate pre-industrial and MIS-13 climates. The boundary conditions for MIS-13 were chosen for 506 ka with Northern-Hemisphere (NH) summer at perihelion and a CO2 concentration of 240 ppm. For pre-industrial, NH-winter occurring at perihelion and a CO2 concentration of 280 ppm were prescribed. Preliminary analysis of the model results shows different atmospheric and oceanic features in MIS-13 compared to the pre-industrial which could affect the EASM. The Northern Pacific Subtropical High (NPSH), which is an important factor in controlling the EASM, strengthened and extended to the northwest in MIS-13 partially due to cooling of the central Pacific Ocean. This in turn brought more moisture from the Central Pacific to the EASM-region and caused a northwestward shift and bending of the low-level jet along East Asia. The change in the low-level jet subsequently increased the meridional wind velocity at 850 mbar in the EASM-region providing more moisture from the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans. In addition, higher sea-surface temperature in the Indian Ocean during MIS-13 further increased the source of moisture for the EASM. The Asian low, which is another component of the EASM-system, also shifted eastward moving the rain band northward. Moreover, it was found that MIS-13 had a dominant La Niña condition in the tropical Pacific. La Ni

Evidence of Himalayan uplift as seen in Neogene records of Indian monsoon variability from ODP Hole 722B, NW Arabian Sea

Science.gov (United States)

Muthusamy, Prakasam; Gupta, Anil K.; Saini, Naresh K.

2013-04-01

The Indian monsoon is one of the most interesting climatic features on Earth impacting most populous countries of South and East Asia. It is marked by seasonal reversals of wind direction with southwesterly winds in summer (June-September) and northeasterly winds in winter (December-February). The monsoon not only impacts socioeconomic conditions of Asia but also brings important changes in fauna and flora, ocean upwelling and primary productivity in the Arabian Sea. The Himalaya has undergone several phases of rapid uplift and exhumation since the early Miocene which led to major intensification of the Indian monsoon. The monsoon is driven by the thermal contrast between land and sea, and is intimately linked with the latitudinal movement of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). The effect of Indian monsoon variability and the Himalayan uplift can be seen in numerous proxy records across the region. In this study we discussed about the Indian monsoon intensification and the Himalayan uplift since the early Miocene based on multi proxy records such as planktic foraminiferal relative abundances (Globigerina bulloides, Globigerinita glutinata and mixed layer species), total organic carbon (TOC), CaCO3 and elemental data from ODP Hole 722B (2028 mbsf), northwestern Arabian Sea. The TOC, CaCO3 and elemental variations of the ODP Hole 722B suggest multi phase of monsoonal intensification and Himalayan uplifts. Our results suggest that in the early Miocene (23.03 Ma) to ~15Ma, the wind strength and productivity were low. A major change is observed at ~15 Ma, during which time numerous proxies show abrupt changes. TOC, CaCO3 and Elemental analyses results reveal that a major change in the productivity, wind strength and chemical weathering starts around 15 Ma and extends up to 10 Ma. This suggests that a major Himalayan uplift occurred during ~15-10 Ma that drove Indian monsoon intensification. A similar change is also observed during 5 to 1 Ma. These long

IMPACT OF JUTE RETTING ON PHYTOPLANKTON DIVERSITY AND AQUATIC HEALTH: BIOMONITORING IN A TROPICAL OXBOW LAKE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dipankar Ghosh

2015-11-01

Full Text Available Phytoplankton acts as a primary producer and biological filter of aquatic ecosystem. Jute retting during monsoon is a common anthropological activity in the rural Bengal. Quantitative seasonal bio-monitoring of phytoplankton community composition with relative abundance and its diversity indices was carried out in this study from April 2013 to March 2014 to assess water quality and the impact of jute retting on phytoplankton diversity of a tropical fresh water oxbow lake in Nadia district of India. We recorded a total of 34 genera of 5 distinct classes, Chlorophyceae (15, Bacillariophyceae (13, Cyanophyceae (4, Dinophyceae (1 and Euglenophyceae (1. Members of Chlorophyceae dominated throughout the year. Unlike Cyanophyceae, Bacillariophyceae was found to be significantly increased during monsoon when compared to the rest of the year. Average phytoplankton density was highest in post-monsoon (8760/L followed by monsoon (4680/L and pre-monsoon (3650/L. Owing to the dominance of class Chlorophyceae and Bacillariophyceae we found this lake to be oligotrophic to mesotrophic. Indices values of genera richness, Shannon-Wiener, evenness and Simpson’s diversity reached their lowest 14, 1.61, 0.61 and 0.68 in monsoon and highest 23, 2.42, 0.77 and 0.86 in post monsoon respectively. The lowest diversity values during monsoon clearly suggested that the selected lake has highest anthropogenic pollution due to jute retting which impacted significantly on phytoplankton diversity. Therefore, the lake is not conducive for fish growth especially during monsoon and we opine that there is a need to regulate jute retting process, intensity and its density in the lake during the monsoon to ensure enhanced biodiversity for sustainable management and conservation of aquatic environment of this Oxbow lake.

Rivers turned to rock: Late Quaternary alluvial induration influencing the behaviour and morphology of an anabranching river in the Australian monsoon tropics

Science.gov (United States)

Nanson, Gerald C.; Jones, Brian G.; Price, David M.; Pietsch, Timothy J.

2005-09-01

Late Quaternary alluvial induration has greatly influenced contemporary channel morphology on the anabranching Gilbert River in the monsoon tropics of the Gulf of Carpentaria. The Gilbert, one of a number of rivers in this region, has contributed to an extensive system of coalescing low-gradient and partly indurated riverine plains. Extensive channel sands were deposited by enhanced flow conditions during marine oxygen isotope (OI) Stage 5. Subsequent flow declined, probably associated with increased aridity, however, enhanced runoff recurred again in OI Stages 4-3 (˜65-50 ka). Aridity then capped these plains with 4-7 m of mud. A widespread network of sandy distributary channels was incised into this muddy surface from sometime after the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to the mid Holocene during a fluvial episode more active than the present but less so than those of OI Stages 5 and 3. This network is still partly active but with channel avulsion and abandonment now occurring largely proximal to the main Gilbert flow path. A tropical climate and reactive catchment lithology have enhanced chemical weathering and lithification of alluvium along the river resulting in the formation of small rapids, waterfalls and inset gorges, features characteristic more of bedrock than alluvial systems. Thermoluminescence (TL) and comparative optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) ages of the sediments are presented along with U/Th ages of pedogenic calcrete and Fe/Mn oxyhydroxide/ oxide accumulations. They show that calcrete precipitated during the Late Quaternary at times similar to those that favoured ferricrete formation, possibly because of an alternating wet-dry climate. Intense chemical alteration of the alluvium leading to induration appears to have prevailed for much of the Late Quaternary but, probably due to exceptional dryness, not during the LGM. The result has been restricted channel migration and a reduced capacity for the channel to adjust and accommodate sudden

The monsoon system: Land-sea breeze or the ITCZ?

Science.gov (United States)

Gadgil, Sulochana

2018-02-01

For well over 300 years, the monsoon has been considered to be a gigantic land-sea breeze driven by the land-ocean contrast in surface temperature. In this paper, this hypothesis and its implications for the variability of the monsoon are discussed and it is shown that the observations of monsoon variability do not support this popular theory of the monsoon. An alternative hypothesis (whose origins can be traced to Blanford's (1886) remarkably perceptive analysis) in which the basic system responsible for the Indian summer monsoon is considered to be the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) or the equatorial trough, is then examined and shown to be consistent with the observations. The implications of considering the monsoon as a manifestation of the seasonal migration of the ITCZ for the variability of the Indian summer monsoon and for identification of the monsoonal regions of the world are briefly discussed.

Observational Analysis of Two Contrasting Monsoon Years

Science.gov (United States)

Karri, S.; Ahmad, R.; Sujata, P.; Jose, S.; Sreenivas, G.; Maurya, D. K.

2014-11-01

The Indian summer monsoon rainfall contributes about 75 % of the total annual rainfall and exhibits considerable interannual variations. The agricultural economy of the country depends mainly on the monsoon rainfall. The long-range forecast of the monsoon rainfall is, therefore of significant importance in agricultural planning and other economic activities of the country. There are various parameters which influence the amount of rainfall received during the monsoon. Some of the important parameters considered by the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) for the study of monsoon are Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR), moisture content of the atmosphere, zonal wind speed, low level vorticity, pressure gradient etc. Compared to the Long Period Average (LPA) value of rain fall, the country as a whole received higher amount of rainfall in June, 2013 (34 % more than LPA). The same month showed considerable decrease next year as the amount of rainfall received was around 43 % less compared to LPA. This drastic difference of monsoon prompted to study the behaviour of some of the monsoon relevant parameters. In this study we have considered five atmospheric parameters as the indicators of monsoon behaviour namely vertical relative humidity, OLR, aerosol optical depth (AOD), wind at 850 hPa and mean sea level pressure (MSLP). In the initial analysis of weekly OLR difference for year 2013 and 2014 shows positive values in the month of May over north-western parts of India (region of heat low). This should result in a weaker monsoon in 2014. This is substantiated by the rainfall data received for various stations over India. Inference made based on the analysis of RH profiles coupled with AOD values is in agreement with the rainfall over the corresponding stations.

Differential impact of lytic viruses on prokaryotic morphopopulations in a tropical estuarine system (Cochin estuary, India).

Science.gov (United States)

Jasna, Vijayan; Pradeep Ram, Angia Sriram; Parvathi, Ammini; Sime-Ngando, Telesphore

2018-01-01

Our understanding on the importance of viral lysis in the functioning of tropical estuarine ecosystem is limited. This study examines viral infection of prokaryotes and subsequent lysis of cells belonging to different morphotypes across a salinity gradient in monsoon driven estuarine ecosystem (Cochin estuary, India). High standing stock of viruses and prokaryotes accompanied by lytic infection rates in the euryhaline/mesohaline region of the estuary suggests salinity to have an influential role in driving interactions between prokaryotes and viruses. High prokaryotic mortality rates, up to 42% of prokaryote population in the pre-monsoon season is further substantiated by a high virus to prokaryote ratio (VPR), suggesting that maintenance of a high number of viruses is dependent on the most active fraction of bacterioplankton. Although myoviruses were the dominant viral morphotype (mean = 43%) throughout the study period, there was significant variation among prokaryotic morphotypes susceptible to viral infection. Among them, the viral infected short rod prokaryote morphotype with lower burst estimates (mean = 18 viruses prokaryote-1) was dominant (35%) in the dry seasons whereas a substantial increase in cocci forms (30%) infected by viruses with high burst size (mean = 31 viruses prokaryote-1) was evident during the monsoon season. Such preferential infections of prokaryotic morphopopulations with respect to seasons can have a strong and variable impact on the carbon and energy flow in this tropical ecosystem.

Tibet, the Himalaya, Asian monsoons and biodiversity – In what ways are they related?

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Robert A. Spicer

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Prevailing dogma asserts that the uplift of Tibet, the onset of the Asian monsoon system and high biodiversity in southern Asia are linked, and that all occurred after 23 million years ago in the Neogene. Here, spanning the last 60 million years of Earth history, the geological, climatological and palaeontological evidence for this linkage is reviewed. The principal conclusions are that: 1 A proto-Tibetan highland existed well before the Neogene and that an Andean type topography with surface elevations of at least 4.5 km existed at the start of the Eocene, before final closure of the Tethys Ocean that separated India from Eurasia. 2 The Himalaya were formed not at the start of the India–Eurasia collision, but after much of Tibet had achieved its present elevation. The Himalaya built against a pre-existing proto-Tibetan highland and only projected above the average height of the plateau after approximately 15 Ma. 3 Monsoon climates have existed across southern Asia for the whole of the Cenozoic, and probably for a lot longer, but that they were of the kind generated by seasonal migrations of the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone. 4 The projection of the High Himalaya above the Tibetan Plateau at about 15 Ma coincides with the development of the modern South Asia Monsoon. 5 The East Asia monsoon became established in its present form about the same time as a consequence of topographic changes in northern Tibet and elsewhere in Asia, the loss of moisture sources in the Asian interior and the development of a strong winter Siberian high as global temperatures declined. 6 New radiometric dates of palaeontological finds point to southern Asia's high biodiversity originating in the Paleogene, not the Neogene.

Early forecasting of Indian Summer Monsoon: case study 2016

Science.gov (United States)

Surovyatkina, Elena; Stolbova, Veronika; Kurths, Jurgen

2017-04-01

The prior knowledge of dates of onset and withdrawal of monsoon is of vital importance for the population of the Indian subcontinent. In May 2016 before monsoon season, India recorded its highest-ever temperature of 51C. Hot waves have decimated crops, killed livestock and left 330 million people without enough water. At the end of monsoon season the floods in Indian this year have also broken previous records. Severe and devastating rainfall poured down, triggering dams spilling and floods. Such extreme conditions pose the vital questions such as: When will the monsoon come? When will the monsoon withdraw? More lead time in monsoon forecast warning is crucial for taking appropriate decisions at various levels - from the farmer's field (e.g. plowing day, seeding) to the central government (e.g. managing water and energy resources, food procurement policies). The Indian Meteorological Department issues forecasts of onset of monsoon for Kerala state in South India on May 15-th. It does not give such predictions for the other 28 states of the country. Our study concerns the central part of India. We made the monsoon forecast using our recently developed method which focuses on Tipping elements of the Indian monsoon [1]. Our prediction relies on observations of near-surface air temperature and relative humidity from both the ERA-40 and NCEP/NCAR reanalyses. We performed both of our forecasts for the onset and withdrawal of monsoon for the central part of India, the Eastern Ghats (20N,80E). We predicted the monsoon arrival to the Eastern Ghats (20N,80E) on the 13th of June with a deviation of +/-4 days. The prediction was made on May 6-th, 2016 [2], that is 40 days in advance of the date of the forecast. The actual monsoon arrival was June 17-th. In this day near-surface air temperature and relative humidity overcame the critical values and the monsoon season started, that was confirmed by observations of meteorological stations located around the EG-region. We

Water vapor increase in the northern hemispheric lower stratosphere by the Asian monsoon anticyclone observed during TACTS campaign in 2012

Science.gov (United States)

Rolf, Christian; Vogel, Bärbel; Hoor, Peter; Günther, Gebhard; Krämer, Martina; Müller, Rolf; Müller, Stephan; Riese, Martin

2017-04-01

Water vapor plays a key role in determining the radiative balance in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) and thus the climate of the Earth (Forster and Shine, 2002; Riese et al., 2012). Therefore a detailed knowledge about transport pathways and exchange processes between troposphere and stratosphere is required to understand the variability of water vapor in this region. The Asian monsoon anticyclone caused by deep convection over and India and east Asia is able to transport air masses from the troposphere into the nothern extra-tropical stratosphere (Müller et al. 2016, Vogel et al. 2016). These air masses contain pollution but also higher amounts of water vapor. An increase in water vapor of about 0.5 ppmv in the extra-tropical stratosphere above a potential temperature of 380 K was detected between August and September 2012 by in-situ instrumentation above the European northern hemisphere during the HALO aircraft mission TACTS. Here, we investigated the origin of this water vapor increase with the help of the 3D Lagrangian chemistry transport model CLaMS (McKenna et al., 2002). We can assign an origin of the moist air masses in the Asian region (North and South India and East China) with the help of model origin tracers. Additionally, back trajectories of these air masses with enriched water vapor are used to differentiate between transport from the Asia monsoon anticyclone and the upwelling of moister air in the tropics particularly from the Pacific and Southeast Asia.

Environmental status of groundwater affected by chromite ore processing residue (COPR) dumpsites during pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons.

Science.gov (United States)

Matern, Katrin; Weigand, Harald; Singh, Abhas; Mansfeldt, Tim

2017-02-01

Chromite ore processing residue (COPR) is generated by the roasting of chromite ores for the extraction of chromium. Leaching of carcinogenic hexavalent chromium (Cr(VI)) from COPR dumpsites and contamination of groundwater is a key environmental risk. The objective of the study was to evaluate Cr(VI) contamination in groundwater in the vicinity of three COPR disposal sites in Uttar Pradesh, India, in the pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons. Groundwater samples (n = 57 pre-monsoon, n = 70 monsoon) were taken in 2014 and analyzed for Cr(VI) and relevant hydrochemical parameters. The site-specific ranges of Cr(VI) concentrations in groundwater were Rania), <0.005 to 115 mg L -1 (Chhiwali), and <0.005 to 2.0 mg L -1 (Godhrauli). Maximum levels of Cr(VI) were found close to the COPR dumpsites and significantly exceeded safe drinking water limits (0.05 mg L -1 ). No significant dependence of Cr(VI) concentration on monsoons was observed.

Primary sand-dune plant community and soil properties during the west-coast India monsoon

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Willis A.

2016-06-01

Full Text Available A seven-station interrupted belt transect was established that followed a previously observed plant zonation pattern across an aggrading primary coastal dune system in the dry tropical region of west-coast India. The dominant weather pattern is monsoon from June to November, followed by hot and dry winter months when rainfall is scarce. Physical and chemical soil characteristics in each of the stations were analysed on five separate occasions, the first before the onset of monsoon, three during and the last post-monsoon. The plant community pattern was confirmed by quadrat survey. A pH gradient decreased with distance from the shoreline. Nutrient concentrations were deficient, increasing only in small amounts until the furthest station inland. At that location, there was a distinct and abrupt pedological transition zone from psammite to humic soils. There was a significant increase over previous stations in mean organic matter, ammonium nitrate and soil-water retention, although the increase in real terms was small. ANOVA showed significant variation in electrical conductivity, phosphorus, calcium, magnesium and sodium concentrations over time. There was no relationship between soil chemistry characteristics and plant community structure over the transect. Ipomoea pes-caprae and Spinifex littoreus were restricted to the foredunes, the leguminous forb Alysicarpus vaginalis and Perotis indica to the two stations furthest from the strand. Ischaemum indicum, a C4 perennial grass species adopting an ephemeral strategy was, in contrast, ubiquitous to all stations.

Empirical studies of the microwave radiometric response to rainfall in the tropics and midlatitudes

Science.gov (United States)

Petty, Grant W.; Katsaros, Kristina B.

1989-01-01

Results are presented from quantitative comparisons between satellite microwave radiometer observations and digital radar observations of equatorial convective cloud clusters and midlatitude frontal precipitation. Simultaneous data from the Winter Monsoon Experiment digital radar and the SMMR for December 1978 are analyzed. It is found that the most important differences between the microwave response to rainfall in the equatorial tropics and to stratiform rain in oceanic midlatitude fronts is caused by the different spatial characteristics of stratiform and convective rainfall and by the different background brightness temperature fields associated with tropical and midlatitude levels of atmospheric water vapor.

On breaks of the Indian monsoon

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

R. Narasimhan (Krishtel eMaging) 1461 1996 Oct 15 13:05:22

quadrapole is a basic feature of weak spells of the intraseasonal variation over the Asia-west Pacific region. ... (Earth Planet. Sci.), 112 .... be useful to define the break monsoon (and active ... monsoon zone, different scientists have used the.

Reconciling societal and scientific definitions for the monsoon

Science.gov (United States)

Reeve, Mathew; Stephenson, David

2014-05-01

Science defines the monsoon in numerous ways. We can apply these definitions to forecast data, reanalysis data, observations, GCMs and more. In a basic research setting, we hope that this work will advance science and our understanding of the monsoon system. In an applied research setting, we often hope that this work will benefit a specific stakeholder or community. We may want to inform a stakeholder when the monsoon starts, now and in the future. However, what happens if the stakeholders cannot relate to the information because their perceptions do not align with the monsoon definition we use in our analysis? We can resolve this either by teaching the stakeholders or learning from them about how they define the monsoon and when they perceive it to begin. In this work we reconcile different scientific monsoon definitions with the perceptions of agricultural communities in Bangladesh. We have developed a statistical technique that rates different scientific definitions against the people's perceptions of when the monsoon starts and ends. We construct a probability mass function (pmf) around each of the respondent's answers in a questionnaire survey. We can use this pmf to analyze the time series of monsoon onsets and withdrawals from the different scientific definitions. We can thereby quantitatively judge which definition may be most appropriate for a specific applied research setting.

Impact of tropical convection and ENSO variability in vertical distributions of CO and O3 over an urban site of India

Science.gov (United States)

Sahu, L. K.; Sheel, Varun; Kajino, M.; Deushi, M.; Gunthe, Sachin S.; Sinha, P. R.; Yadav, Ravi; Pal, Devendra; Nedelec, P.; Thouret, Valérie; Smit, Herman G.

2017-07-01

This study is based on the analysis of the measurement of ozone and water vapor by airbus in-service aircraft (MOZAIC) data of vertical ozone (O3) and carbon monoxide (CO) over Hyderabad during November 2005-March 2009. Measurements in the upper troposphere show highest values of O3 (53-75 ppbv) and CO (80-110 ppbv) during the pre-monsoon and post-monsoon seasons, respectively. The episodes of strong wind shears (>20 ms-1) were frequent during the monsoon/post-monsoon months, while weak shear conditions (Hack/Zhang-McFarlane schemes for both O3 and CO during the monsoon season. The difference between observation and simulations were particularly large during transition from El Niño to La Niña phases. The different convection scheme and horizontal resolution in the MOZART-4 and CCM2 seem to be the major causes of disagreement between these models. Vertical profiles of both O3 and CO during extreme events such a tropical cyclones (TCs) show strong influence of the convective-dynamics over Bay of Bengal (BOB).

Variation in the Asian monsoon intensity and dry-wet conditions since the Little Ice Age in central China revealed by an aragonite stalagmite

Science.gov (United States)

Yin, J.-J.; Yuan, D.-X.; Li, H.-C.; Cheng, H.; Li, T.-Y.; Edwards, R. L.; Lin, Y.-S.; Qin, J.-M.; Tang, W.; Zhao, Z.-Y.; Mii, H.-S.

2014-10-01

This paper focuses on the climate variability in central China since AD 1300, involving: (1) a well-dated, 1.5-year resolution stalagmite δ18O record from Lianhua Cave, central China (2) links of the δ18O record with regional dry-wet conditions, monsoon intensity, and temperature over eastern China (3) correlations among drought events in the Lianhua record, solar irradiation, and ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) variation. We present a highly precise, 230Th / U-dated, 1.5-year resolution δ18O record of an aragonite stalagmite (LHD1) collected from Lianhua Cave in the Wuling Mountain area of central China. The comparison of the δ18O record with the local instrumental record and historical documents indicates that (1) the stalagmite δ18O record reveals variations in the summer monsoon intensity and dry-wet conditions in the Wuling Mountain area. (2) A stronger East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) enhances the tropical monsoon trough controlled by ITCZ (Intertropical Convergence Zone), which produces higher spring quarter rainfall and isotopically light monsoonal moisture in the central China. (3) The summer quarter/spring quarter rainfall ratio in central China can be a potential indicator of the EASM strength: a lower ratio corresponds to stronger EASM and higher spring rainfall. The ratio changed from 1 after 1950, reflecting that the summer quarter rainfall of the study area became dominant under stronger influence of the Northwestern Pacific High. Eastern China temperatures varied with the solar activity, showing higher temperatures under stronger solar irradiation, which produced stronger summer monsoons. During Maunder, Dalton and 1900 sunspot minima, more severe drought events occurred, indicating a weakening of the summer monsoon when solar activity decreased on decadal timescales. On an interannual timescale, dry conditions in the study area prevailed under El Niño conditions, which is also supported by the spectrum analysis. Hence, our record

Relative role of pre-monsoon conditions and intraseasonal oscillations in determining early-vs-late indian monsoon intensity in a GCM

Science.gov (United States)

Ghosh, Rohit; Chakraborty, Arindam; Nanjundiah, Ravi S.

2018-01-01

The aim of this paper is to identify relative roles of different land-atmospheric conditions, apart from sea surface temperature (SST), in determining early vs. late summer monsoon intensity over India in a high resolution general circulation model (GCM). We find that in its early phase (June-July; JJ), pre-monsoon land-atmospheric processes play major role to modulate the precipitation over Indian region. These effects of pre-monsoon conditions decrease substantially during its later phase (August-September; AS) for which the interannual variation is mainly governed by the low frequency northward propagating intraseasonal oscillations. This intraseasonal variability which is related to mean vertical wind shear has a significant role during the early phase of monsoon as well. Further, using multiple linear regression, we show that interannual variation of early and late monsoon rainfall over India is best explained when all these land-atmospheric parameters are taken together. Our study delineates the relative role of different processes affecting early versus later summer monsoon rainfall over India that can be used for determining its subseasonal predictability.

Phylogenetic diversity of archaeal 16S rRNA and ammonia monooxygenase genes from tropical estuarine sediments on the central west coast of India

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Singh, S.K.; Verma, P.; Ramaiah, N.; Anil, A.C.; Shouche, Y.S.

of Euryarchaeota. Our results indicate that archaeal diversity in tropical estuarine sediments is influenced by the mangrove vegetation bordering the lower stretches of both estuaries. Higher diversity may be related to elevated land drainage during the monsoon...

Onset, active and break periods of the Australian monsoon

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shaik, Hakeem A; Cleland, Samuel J

2010-01-01

Four operational techniques of monsoon monitoring the Australian monsoon at Darwin have been developed in the Darwin Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre. Two techniques used the rainfall only criteria and look into the onset of wet season rainfall/monsoon rainfall. The other two techniques are based purely on Darwin wind data. The data used for the study ranges from 14 to 21 years. The main purpose of the study is to develop near-real time monitoring tools for the Australian monsoon at Darwin. The average date of onset of the monsoon ranges from 19 December to 30 December. The average date of monsoon onset is 28 December. In eleven out of twenty-one years the onset date remained within three days range between the two rainfall techniques, whereas it is eleven out of fourteen years between the wind techniques. The median number of active monsoon spells in a wet season is 3 for the rainfall techniques and 6 for the wind techniques. The average length of each active monsoon spell is around 4 days for all of the techniques. The date of onset of the monsoon has shown negative correlation with the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) that is late onset is found to occur in El Nino years while early onset is more likely in La Nina years.

Tropical explosive volcanic eruptions can trigger El Niño by cooling tropical Africa.

Science.gov (United States)

Khodri, Myriam; Izumo, Takeshi; Vialard, Jérôme; Janicot, Serge; Cassou, Christophe; Lengaigne, Matthieu; Mignot, Juliette; Gastineau, Guillaume; Guilyardi, Eric; Lebas, Nicolas; Robock, Alan; McPhaden, Michael J

2017-10-03

Stratospheric aerosols from large tropical explosive volcanic eruptions backscatter shortwave radiation and reduce the global mean surface temperature. Observations suggest that they also favour an El Niño within 2 years following the eruption. Modelling studies have, however, so far reached no consensus on either the sign or physical mechanism of El Niño response to volcanism. Here we show that an El Niño tends to peak during the year following large eruptions in simulations of the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Targeted climate model simulations further emphasize that Pinatubo-like eruptions tend to shorten La Niñas, lengthen El Niños and induce anomalous warming when occurring during neutral states. Volcanically induced cooling in tropical Africa weakens the West African monsoon, and the resulting atmospheric Kelvin wave drives equatorial westerly wind anomalies over the western Pacific. This wind anomaly is further amplified by air-sea interactions in the Pacific, favouring an El Niño-like response.El Niño tends to follow 2 years after volcanic eruptions, but the physical mechanism behind this phenomenon is unclear. Here the authors use model simulations to show that a Pinatubo-like eruption cools tropical Africa and drives westerly wind anomalies in the Pacific favouring an El Niño response.

Anomalous behaviour of the Indian summer monsoon 2009

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

The Indian subcontinent witnessed a severe monsoon drought in the year 2009. India as a whole received. 77% of its long period average during summer monsoon season (1 June to 30 September) of 2009, which is the third highest deficient all India monsoon season rainfall year during the period 1901–2009. Therefore,.

Transient coupling relationships of the Holocene Australian monsoon

Science.gov (United States)

McRobie, F. H.; Stemler, T.; Wyrwoll, K.-H.

2015-08-01

The northwest Australian summer monsoon owes a notable degree of its interannual variability to interactions with other regional monsoon systems. Therefore, changes in the nature of these relationships may contribute to variability in monsoon strength over longer time scales. Previous attempts to evaluate how proxy records from the Indonesian-Australian monsoon region correspond to other records from the Indian and East Asian monsoon regions, as well as to El Niño-related proxy records, have been qualitative, relying on 'curve-fitting' methods. Here, we seek a quantitative approach for identifying coupling relationships between paleoclimate proxy records, employing statistical techniques to compute the interdependence of two paleoclimate time series. We verify the use of complex networks to identify coupling relationships between modern climate indices. This method is then extended to a set of paleoclimate proxy records from the Asian, Australasian and South American regions spanning the past 9000 years. The resulting networks demonstrate the existence of coupling relationships between regional monsoon systems on millennial time scales, but also highlight the transient nature of teleconnections during this period. In the context of the northwest Australian summer monsoon, we recognise a shift in coupling relationships from strong interhemispheric links with East Asian and ITCZ-related proxy records in the mid-Holocene to significantly weaker coupling in the later Holocene. Although the identified links cannot explain the underlying physical processes leading to coupling between regional monsoon systems, this method provides a step towards understanding the role that changes in teleconnections play in millennial-to orbital-scale climate variability.

Effect of climate change on seasonal monsoon in Asia and its impact on the variability of monsoon rainfall in Southeast Asia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yen Yi Loo

2015-11-01

Full Text Available Global warming and climate change is one of the most extensively researched and discussed topical issues affecting the environment. Although there are enough historical evidence to support the theory that climate change is a natural phenomenon, many research scientists are widely in agreement that the increase in temperature in the 20th century is anthropologically related. The associated effects are the variability of rainfall and cyclonic patterns that are being observed globally. In Southeast Asia the link between global warming and the seasonal atmospheric flow during the monsoon seasons shows varying degree of fuzziness. This study investigates the impact of climate change on the seasonality of monsoon Asia and its effect on the variability of monsoon rainfall in Southeast Asia. The comparison of decadal variation of precipitation and temperature anomalies before the 1970s found general increases which were mostly varying. But beyond the 1970s, global precipitation anomalous showed increases that almost corresponded with increases in global temperature anomalies for the same period. There are frequent changes and a shift westward of the Indian summer monsoon. Although precipitation is observed to be 70% below normal levels, in some areas the topography affects the intensity of rainfall. These shifting phenomenon of other monsoon season in the region are impacting on the variability of rainfall and the onset of monsoons in Southeast Asia and is predicted to delay for 15 days the onset of the monsoon in the future. The variability of monsoon rainfall in the SEA region is observed to be decadal and the frequency and intensity of intermittent flooding of some areas during the monsoon season have serious consequences on the human, financial, infrastructure and food security of the region.

Detecting causal drivers and empirical prediction of the Indian Summer Monsoon

Science.gov (United States)

Di Capua, G.; Vellore, R.; Raghavan, K.; Coumou, D.

2017-12-01

The Indian summer monsoon (ISM) is crucial for the economy, society and natural ecosystems on the Indian peninsula. Predict the total seasonal rainfall at several months lead time would help to plan effective water management strategies, improve flood or drought protection programs and prevent humanitarian crisis. However, the complexity and strong internal variability of the ISM circulation system make skillful seasonal forecasting challenging. Moreover, to adequately identify the low-frequency, and far-away processes which influence ISM behavior novel tools are needed. We applied a Response-Guided Causal Precursor Detection (RGCPD) scheme, which is a novel empirical prediction method which unites a response-guided community detection scheme with a causal discovery algorithm (CEN). These tool allow us to assess causal pathways between different components of the ISM circulation system and with far-away regions in the tropics, mid-latitudes or Arctic. The scheme has successfully been used to identify causal precursors of the Stratospheric polar vortex enabling skillful predictions at (sub) seasonal timescales (Kretschmer et al. 2016, J.Clim., Kretschmer et al. 2017, GRL). We analyze observed ISM monthly rainfall over the monsoon trough region. Applying causal discovery techniques, we identify several causal precursor communities in the fields of 2m-temperature, sea level pressure and snow depth over Eurasia. Specifically, our results suggest that surface temperature conditions in both tropical and Arctic regions contribute to ISM variability. A linear regression prediction model based on the identified set of communities has good hindcasting skills with 4-5 months lead times. Further we separate El Nino, La Nina and ENSO-neutral years from each other and find that the causal precursors are different dependent on ENSO state. The ENSO-state dependent causal precursors give even higher skill, especially for La Nina years when the ISM is relatively strong. These

Meteorological results of monsoon-88 Expedition (pre-monsoon period)

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Sadhuram, Y.; Krishnamurthy, L.; Babu, M.T.

Mean atmospheric circulation, moisture budget and net heat exchange were studied during a pre-monsoon period (18th March to 3rd May, 1988), making use of the data collected on board "Akademik Korolev" in the central equatorial and southern Arabian...

High carbon dioxide uptake by subtropical forest ecosystems in the East Asian monsoon region

Science.gov (United States)

Yu, Guirui; Chen, Zhi; Piao, Shilong; Peng, Changhui; Ciais, Philippe; Wang, Qiufeng; Li, Xuanran; Zhu, Xianjin

2014-01-01

Temperate- and high-latitude forests have been shown to contribute a carbon sink in the Northern Hemisphere, but fewer studies have addressed the carbon balance of the subtropical forests. In the present study, we integrated eddy covariance observations established in the 1990s and 2000s to show that East Asian monsoon subtropical forests between 20°N and 40°N represent an average net ecosystem productivity (NEP) of 362 ± 39 g C m−2 yr−1 (mean ± 1 SE). This average forest NEP value is higher than that of Asian tropical and temperate forests and is also higher than that of forests at the same latitudes in Europe–Africa and North America. East Asian monsoon subtropical forests have comparable NEP to that of subtropical forests of the southeastern United States and intensively managed Western European forests. The total NEP of East Asian monsoon subtropical forests was estimated to be 0.72 ± 0.08 Pg C yr−1, which accounts for 8% of the global forest NEP. This result indicates that the role of subtropical forests in the current global carbon cycle cannot be ignored and that the regional distributions of the Northern Hemisphere's terrestrial carbon sinks are needed to be reevaluated. The young stand ages and high nitrogen deposition, coupled with sufficient and synchronous water and heat availability, may be the primary reasons for the high NEP of this region, and further studies are needed to quantify the contribution of each underlying factor. PMID:24639529

Assessment of two versions of regional climate model in simulating the Indian Summer Monsoon over South Asia CORDEX domain

Science.gov (United States)

Pattnayak, K. C.; Panda, S. K.; Saraswat, Vaishali; Dash, S. K.

2018-04-01

This study assess the performance of two versions of Regional Climate Model (RegCM) in simulating the Indian summer monsoon over South Asia for the period 1998 to 2003 with an aim of conducting future climate change simulations. Two sets of experiments were carried out with two different versions of RegCM (viz. RegCM4.2 and RegCM4.3) with the lateral boundary forcings provided from European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecast Reanalysis (ERA-interim) at 50 km horizontal resolution. The major updates in RegCM4.3 in comparison to the older version RegCM4.2 are the inclusion of measured solar irradiance in place of hardcoded solar constant and additional layers in the stratosphere. The analysis shows that the Indian summer monsoon rainfall, moisture flux and surface net downward shortwave flux are better represented in RegCM4.3 than that in the RegCM4.2 simulations. Excessive moisture flux in the RegCM4.2 simulation over the northern Arabian Sea and Peninsular India resulted in an overestimation of rainfall over the Western Ghats, Peninsular region as a result of which the all India rainfall has been overestimated. RegCM4.3 has performed well over India as a whole as well as its four rainfall homogenous zones in reproducing the mean monsoon rainfall and inter-annual variation of rainfall. Further, the monsoon onset, low-level Somali Jet and the upper level tropical easterly jet are better represented in the RegCM4.3 than RegCM4.2. Thus, RegCM4.3 has performed better in simulating the mean summer monsoon circulation over the South Asia. Hence, RegCM4.3 may be used to study the future climate change over the South Asia.

Coherent response of the Indo-African boreal summer monsoon to Pacific SST captured in Ethiopian rain δ18O

Science.gov (United States)

Madhavan, M.; Palliyil, L. R.; Ramesh, R.

2017-12-01

Pacific Sea Surface Temperature (SST) plays an important role in the inter-annual to inter-decadal variability of boreal monsoons. We identified a common mode of inter annual variability in the Indian and African boreal summer monsoon (June to September) rainfalls, which is linked to Pacific SSTs, using Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis. Temporal coefficients (Principle component: PC1) of the leading mode of variability (EOF-1) is well correlated with the Indian summer monsoon rainfall and Sahel rainfall. About forty year long monthly observations of δ18O (and δD) at Addis Ababa, Ethiopia show a strong association with PC1 (r=0.69 for δ18O and r=0.75 for δD). Analysis of SST, sea level pressure and lower tropospheric winds suggest that 18O depletion in Ethiopian rainfall (and wet phases of PC1) is associated with cooler eastern tropical Pacific and warmer western Pacific and strengthening of Pacific subtropical high in both the hemispheres. Associated changes in the trade winds cause enhanced westerly moisture transport into the Indian subcontinent and northern Africa and cause enhanced rainfall. The intrusion of Atlantic westerly component of moisture transport at Addis Ababa during wet phases of PC1 is clearly recorded in δ18O of rain. We also observe the same common mode of variability (EOF1) of Indo-African boreal summer monsoon rain on decadal time scales. A 100 year long δ18O record of actively growing speleothem from the Mechara cave, Ethiopia, matches very well with the PC1 on the decadal time scale. This highlights the potential of speleothem δ18O and leaf wax δD from Ethiopia to investigate the natural variability and teleconnections of Indo-African boreal monsoon.

Large-scale control of the Arabian Sea monsoon inversion in August

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Chi-Hua; Wang, S.-Y. Simon; Hsu, Huang-Hsiung

2017-12-01

The summer monsoon inversion in the Arabian Sea is characterized by a large amount of low clouds and August as the peak season. Atmospheric stratification associated with the monsoon inversion has been considered a local system influenced by the advancement of the India-Pakistan monsoon. Empirical and numerical evidence from this study suggests that the Arabian Sea monsoon inversion is linked to a broader-scale monsoon evolution across the African Sahel, South Asia, and East Asia-Western North Pacific (WNP), rather than being a mere byproduct of the India-Pakistan monsoon progression. In August, the upper-tropospheric anticyclone in South Asia extends sideways corresponding with the enhanced precipitation in the subtropical WNP, equatorial Indian Ocean, and African Sahel while the middle part of this anticyclone weakens over the Arabian Sea. The increased heating in the adjacent monsoon systems creates a suppression effect on the Arabian Sea, suggesting an apparent competition among the Africa-Asia-WNP monsoon subsystems. The peak Sahel rainfall in August, together with enhanced heating in the equatorial Indian Ocean, produces a critical effect on strengthening the Arabian Sea thermal inversion. By contrast, the WNP monsoon onset which signifies the eastward expansion of the subtropical Asian monsoon heating might play a secondary or opposite role in the Arabian Sea monsoon inversion.

Dirtier Air from a Weaker Monsoon

Science.gov (United States)

Chin, Mian

2012-01-01

The level of air pollution in China has much increased in the past decades, causing serious health problems. Among the main pollutants are aerosols, also known as particulate matter: tiny, invisible particles that are suspended in the air. These particles contribute substantially to premature mortality associated with cardiopulmonary diseases and lung cancer1. The increase of the aerosol level in China has been commonly attributed to the fast rise in pollutant emissions from the rapid economic development in the region. However, writing in Geophysical Research Letters, Jianlei Zhu and colleagues2 tell a different side of the story: using a chemical transport model and observation data, they show that the decadal scale weakening of the East Asian summer monsoon has also contributed to the increase of aerosol concentrations in China. The life cycle of atmospheric aerosols starts with its emission or formation in the atmosphere. Some aerosol components such as dust, soot and sea salt are emitted directly as particles to the atmosphere, but others are formed there by way of photochemical reactions. For example, sulphate and nitrate aerosols are produced from their respective precursor gases, sulphur dioxide and nitrogen oxides. Aerosol particles can be transported away from their source locations by winds or vertical motion of the air. Eventually, they are removed from the atmosphere by means of dry deposition and wet scavenging by precipitation. Measurements generally show that aerosol concentrations over Asia are lowest during the summer monsoon season3, because intense rainfall efficiently removes them from the air. The East Asian summer monsoon extends over subtropics and mid-latitudes. Its rainfall tends to concentrate in rain belts that stretch out for many thousands of kilometres and affect China, Korea, Japan and the surrounding area. Observations suggest that the East Asian summer monsoon circulation and precipitation have been in decline since the 1970s4. In

Circulation characteristics of a monsoon depression during ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

M. Senthilkumar (Newgen Imaging) 1461 1996 Oct 15 13:05:22

ciated with organized convective processes in a monsoon depression. The objective is to ..... the errors are large and the performance of the high-resolution ... Ramage C S 1971 Monsoon meteorology (London: Academic. Press) 45–46.

The sensitivity of the Indian summer monsoon to a global warming of 2 C with respect to pre-industrial times

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

May, Wilhelm [Danish Meteorological Institute, Danish Climate Centre, Copenhagen (Denmark)

2011-11-15

In this study the potential future changes in different aspects of the Indian summer monsoon associated with a global warming of 2 C with respect to pre-industrial times are assessed, focussing on the role of the different mechanisms leading to these changes. In addition, these changes as well as the underlying mechanisms are compared to the corresponding changes associated with a markedly stronger global warming exceeding 4.5 C, associated with the widely used SRES A1B scenario. The study is based on two sets of four ensemble simulations with the ECHAM5/MPI-OM coupled climate model, each starting from different initial conditions. In one set of simulations (2020-2200), greenhouse gas concentrations and sulphate aerosol load have been prescribed in such a way that the simulated global warming does not exceed 2 C with respect to pre-industrial times. In the other set of simulations (1860-2200), greenhouse gas concentrations and sulphate aerosol load have been prescribed according to observations until 2000 and according to the SRES A1B scenario after 2000. The study reveals marked changes in the Indian summer monsoon associated with a global warming of 2 C with respect to pre-industrial conditions, namely an intensification of the summer monsoon precipitation despite a weakening of the large-scale monsoon circulation. The increase in the monsoon rainfall is related to a variety of different mechanisms, with the intensification of the atmospheric moisture transport into the Indian region as the most important one. The weakening of the large-scale monsoon circulation is mainly caused by changes in the Walker circulation with large-scale divergence (convergence) in the lower (upper) troposphere over the Indian Ocean in response to enhanced convective activity over the Indian Ocean and the central and eastern Pacific and reduced convective activity over the western tropical Pacific. These changes in the Walker circulation induce westerly (easterly) wind anomalies at

Latitudinal Change of Tropical Cyclone Maximum Intensity in the Western North Pacific

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Jae-Won Choi

2016-01-01

Full Text Available This study obtained the latitude where tropical cyclones (TCs show maximum intensity and applied statistical change-point analysis on the time series data of the average annual values. The analysis results found that the latitude of the TC maximum intensity increased from 1999. To investigate the reason behind this phenomenon, the difference of the average latitude between 1999 and 2013 and the average between 1977 and 1998 was analyzed. In a difference of 500 hPa streamline between the two periods, anomalous anticyclonic circulations were strong in 30°–50°N, while anomalous monsoon trough was located in the north of South China Sea. This anomalous monsoon trough was extended eastward to 145°E. Middle-latitude region in East Asia is affected by the anomalous southeasterlies due to these anomalous anticyclonic circulations and anomalous monsoon trough. These anomalous southeasterlies play a role of anomalous steering flows that make the TCs heading toward region in East Asia middle latitude. As a result, TCs during 1999–2013 had higher latitude of the maximum intensity compared to the TCs during 1977–1998.

Prediction of summer monsoon rainfall over India using the NCEP climate forecast system

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pattanaik, D.R. [India Meteorological Department (IMD), New Delhi (India); Kumar, Arun [Climate Prediction Center, National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/NWS/NOAA, Camp Springs, MD (United States)

2010-03-15

The performance of a dynamical seasonal forecast system is evaluated for the prediction of summer monsoon rainfall over the Indian region during June to September (JJAS). The evaluation is based on the National Centre for Environmental Prediction's (NCEP) climate forecast system (CFS) initialized during March, April and May and integrated for a period of 9 months with a 15 ensemble members for 25 years period from 1981 to 2005. The CFS's hindcast climatology during JJAS of March (lag-3), April (lag-2) and May (lag-1) initial conditions show mostly an identical pattern of rainfall similar to that of verification climatology with the rainfall maxima (one over the west-coast of India and the other over the head Bay of Bengal region) well simulated. The pattern correlation between verification and forecast climatology over the global tropics and Indian monsoon region (IMR) bounded by 50 E-110 E and 10 S-35 N shows significant correlation coefficient (CCs). The skill of simulation of broad scale monsoon circulation index (Webster and Yang; WY index) is quite good in the CFS with highly significant CC between the observed and predicted by the CFS from the March, April and May forecasts. High skill in forecasting El Nino event is also noted for the CFS March, April and May initial conditions, whereas, the skill of the simulation of Indian Ocean Dipole is poor and is basically due to the poor skill of prediction of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean. Over the IMR the skill of monsoon rainfall forecast during JJAS as measured by the spatial Anomaly CC between forecast rainfall anomaly and the observed rainfall anomaly during 1991, 1994, 1997 and 1998 is high (almost of the order of 0.6), whereas, during the year 1982, 1984, 1985, 1987 and 1989 the ACC is only around 0.3. By using lower and upper tropospheric forecast winds during JJAS over the regions of significant CCs as predictors for the All India Summer Monsoon

Weakening of the North American monsoon with global warming

Science.gov (United States)

Pascale, Salvatore; Boos, William R.; Bordoni, Simona; Delworth, Thomas L.; Kapnick, Sarah B.; Murakami, Hiroyuki; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Zhang, Wei

2017-11-01

Future changes in the North American monsoon, a circulation system that brings abundant summer rains to vast areas of the North American Southwest, could have significant consequences for regional water resources. How this monsoon will change with increasing greenhouse gases, however, remains unclear, not least because coarse horizontal resolution and systematic sea-surface temperature biases limit the reliability of its numerical model simulations. Here we investigate the monsoon response to increased atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations using a 50-km-resolution global climate model which features a realistic representation of the monsoon climatology and its synoptic-scale variability. It is found that the monsoon response to CO2 doubling is sensitive to sea-surface temperature biases. When minimizing these biases, the model projects a robust reduction in monsoonal precipitation over the southwestern United States, contrasting with previous multi-model assessments. Most of this precipitation decline can be attributed to increased atmospheric stability, and hence weakened convection, caused by uniform sea-surface warming. These results suggest improved adaptation measures, particularly water resource planning, will be required to cope with projected reductions in monsoon rainfall in the American Southwest.

Water vapor increase in the lower stratosphere of the Northern Hemisphere due to the Asian monsoon anticyclone observed during the TACTS/ESMVal campaigns

Science.gov (United States)

Rolf, Christian; Vogel, Bärbel; Hoor, Peter; Afchine, Armin; Günther, Gebhard; Krämer, Martina; Müller, Rolf; Müller, Stefan; Spelten, Nicole; Riese, Martin

2018-03-01

The impact of air masses originating in Asia and influenced by the Asian monsoon anticyclone on the Northern Hemisphere stratosphere is investigated based on in situ measurements. A statistically significant increase in water vapor (H2O) of about 0.5 ppmv (11 %) and methane (CH4) of up to 20 ppbv (1.2 %) in the extratropical stratosphere above a potential temperature of 380 K was detected between August and September 2012 during the HALO aircraft missions Transport and Composition in the UT/LMS (TACTS) and Earth System Model Validation (ESMVal). We investigate the origin of the increased water vapor and methane using the three-dimensional Chemical Lagrangian Model of the Stratosphere (CLaMS). We assign the source of the moist air masses in the Asian region (northern and southern India, eastern China, southeast Asia, and the tropical Pacific) based on tracers of air mass origin used in CLaMS. The water vapor increase is correlated with an increase of the simulated Asian monsoon air mass contribution from about 10 % in August to about 20 % in September, which corresponds to a doubling of the influence from the Asian monsoon region. Additionally, back trajectories starting at the aircraft flight paths are used to differentiate transport from the Asian monsoon anticyclone and other source regions by calculating the Lagrangian cold point (LCP). The geographic location of the LCPs, which indicates the region where the set point of water vapor mixing ratio along these trajectories occurs, can be predominantly attributed to the Asian monsoon region.

Final Scientific Report for "The Interhemispheric Pattern in 20th Century and Future Abrupt Change in Regional Tropical Rainfall"

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chiang, John C. H. [University of California, Berkeley, CA (United States); Wehner, Michael F. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

2012-10-29

This is the final scientific report for grant DOE-FG02-08ER64588, "The Interhemispheric Pattern in 20th Century and Future Abrupt Change in Regional Tropical Rainfall."The project investigates the role of the interhemispheric pattern in surface temperature – i.e. the contrast between the northern and southern temperature changes – in driving rapid changes to tropical rainfall changes over the 20th century and future climates. Previous observational and modeling studies have shown that the tropical rainband – the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) over marine regions, and the summer monsoonal rainfall over land – are sensitive to the interhemispheric thermal contrast; but that the link between the two has not been applied to interpreting long-term tropical rainfall changes over the 20th century and future.The specific goals of the project were to i) develop dynamical mechanisms to explain the link between the interhemispheric pattern to abrupt changes of West African and Asian monsoonal rainfall; ii) Undertake a formal detection and attribution study on the interhemispheric pattern in 20th century climate; and iii) assess the likelihood of changes to this pattern in the future. In line with these goals, our project has produced the following significant results: 1.We have developed a case that suggests that the well-known abrupt weakening of the West African monsoon in the late 1960s was part of a wider co-ordinated weakening of the West African and Asian monsoons, and driven from an abrupt cooling in the high latitude North Atlantic sea surface temperature at the same time. Our modeling work suggests that the high-latitude North Atlantic cooling is effective in driving monsoonal weakening, through driving a cooling of the Northern hemisphere that is amplified by positive radiative feedbacks. 2.We have shown that anthropogenic sulfate aerosols may have partially contributed to driving a progressively southward displacement of the Atlantic Intertropical

Understanding the Asian summer monsoon response to greenhouse warming: the relative roles of direct radiative forcing and sea surface temperature change

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Xiaoqiong; Ting, Mingfang

2017-10-01

Future hydroclimate projections from state-of-the-art climate models show large uncertainty and model spread, particularly in the tropics and over the monsoon regions. The precipitation and circulation responses to rising greenhouse gases involve a fast component associated with direct radiative forcing and a slow component associated with sea surface temperature (SST) warming; the relative importance of the two may contribute to model discrepancies. In this study, regional hydroclimate responses to greenhouse warming are assessed using output from coupled general circulation models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-Phase 5 (CMIP5) and idealized atmospheric general circulation model experiments from the Atmosphere Model Intercomparison Project. The thermodynamic and dynamic mechanisms causing the rainfall changes are examined using moisture budget analysis. Results show that direct radiative forcing and SST change exert significantly different responses both over land and ocean. For most part of the Asian monsoon region, the summertime rainfall changes are dominated by the direct CO2 radiative effect through enhanced monsoon circulation. The response to SST warming shows a larger model spread compared to direct radiative forcing, possibly due to the cancellation between the thermodynamical and dynamical components. While the thermodynamical response of the Asian monsoon is robust across the models, there is a lack of consensus for the dynamical response among the models and weak multi-model mean responses in the CMIP5 ensemble, which may be related to the multiple physical processes evolving on different time scales.

Impact of seasonal changes in nutrient loading on distribution and activity of nitrifiers in a tropical estuary

Science.gov (United States)

Vipindas, P. V.; Anas, Abdulaziz; Jayalakshmy, K. V.; Lallu, K. R.; Benny, P. Y.; Shanta, Nair

2018-02-01

Estuaries are ecologically important environments, which function as the reception point of nitrogenous inputs of terrestrial and anthropogenic origin. In the present study, we discuss the influence of nutrient characteristics on the distribution and activity of nitrifiers in the water column of Cochin Estuary (CE), a tropical estuary along the southeast Arabian Sea (SEAS). Nitrifying bacteria (i.e. Ammonia- (AOB) and nitrite- (NOB) -oxidizing bacteria), which were enumerated using fluorescent in situ hybridization (FISH), showed marked seasonality while maintaining the abundance within an order of 107 cells L-1. Denaturing Gradient Gel Electrophoresis (DGGE) analysis of AOB exhibited spatio-temporal adaptability without much variation. Nitrification rate in the CE ranged from 2.25 to 426.17 nmol N L-1 h-1 and it was 10-40 fold higher during the pre-monsoon compared with the monsoon. We attributed this increase to high nutrient availability during pre-monsoon due to low flushing rate of the estuary. The study shows that the distribution and activities of nitrifiers in the CE are modulated by the changes in nutrient concentration imparted by the monsoon-driven seasonal variation in river-water discharge and flushing.

Potential modulations of pre-monsoon aerosols during El Niño: impact on Indian summer monsoon

Science.gov (United States)

Fadnavis, S.; Roy, Chaitri; Sabin, T. P.; Ayantika, D. C.; Ashok, K.

2017-10-01

The potential role of aerosol loading on the Indian summer monsoon rainfall during the El Niño years are examined using satellite-derived observations and a state of the art fully interactive aerosol-chemistry-climate model. The Aerosol Index (AI) from TOMS (1978-2005) and Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) from MISR spectroradiometer (2000-2010) indicate a higher-than-normal aerosol loading over the Indo-Gangetic plain (IGP) during the pre-monsoon season with a concurrent El Niño. Sensitivity experiments using ECHAM5-HAMMOZ climate model suggests that this enhanced loading of pre-monsoon absorbing aerosols over the Indo-Gangetic plain can reduce the drought during El Niño years by invoking the `Elevated-Heat-Pump' mechanism through an anomalous aerosol-induced warm core in the atmospheric column. This anomalous heating upshot the relative strengthening of the cross-equatorial moisture inflow associated with the monsoon and eventually reduces the severity of drought during El Niño years. The findings are subject to the usual limitations such as the uncertainties in observations, and limited number of El Niño years (during the study period).

Asian monsoons in a late Eocene greenhouse world.

Science.gov (United States)

Licht, A; van Cappelle, M; Abels, H A; Ladant, J-B; Trabucho-Alexandre, J; France-Lanord, C; Donnadieu, Y; Vandenberghe, J; Rigaudier, T; Lécuyer, C; Terry, D; Adriaens, R; Boura, A; Guo, Z; Soe, Aung Naing; Quade, J; Dupont-Nivet, G; Jaeger, J-J

2014-09-25

The strong present-day Asian monsoons are thought to have originated between 25 and 22 million years (Myr) ago, driven by Tibetan-Himalayan uplift. However, the existence of older Asian monsoons and their response to enhanced greenhouse conditions such as those in the Eocene period (55-34 Myr ago) are unknown because of the paucity of well-dated records. Here we show late Eocene climate records revealing marked monsoon-like patterns in rainfall and wind south and north of the Tibetan-Himalayan orogen. This is indicated by low oxygen isotope values with strong seasonality in gastropod shells and mammal teeth from Myanmar, and by aeolian dust deposition in northwest China. Our climate simulations support modern-like Eocene monsoonal rainfall and show that a reinforced hydrological cycle responding to enhanced greenhouse conditions counterbalanced the negative effect of lower Tibetan relief on precipitation. These strong monsoons later weakened with the global shift to icehouse conditions 34 Myr ago.

Characteristics of monsoon low level jet (MLLJ)

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

Temperature and wind data are used to describe variation in the strength of the Monsoon Low Level Jet (MLLJ) from an active phase of the monsoon to a break phase. Also estimated are the characteristics of turbulence above and below MLLJ.

Simulation of the Onset of the Southeast Asian Monsoon during 1997 and 1998: The Impact of Surface Processes

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Yansen; Tao, W.-K.; Lau, K.-M.; Wetzel, Peter J.

2004-01-01

The onset of the southeast Asian monsoon during 1997 and 1998 was simulated by coupling a mesoscale atmospheric model (MM5) and a detailed, land surface model, PLACE (the Parameterization for Land-Atmosphere-Cloud Exchange). The rainfall results from the simulations were compared with observed satellite data from the TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) TMI (TRMM Microwave Imager) and GPCP (Global Precipitation Climatology Project). The control simulation with the PLACE land surface model and variable sea surface temperature captured the basic signatures of the monsoon onset processes and associated rainfall statistics. Sensitivity tests indicated that simulations were sigmficantly improved by including the PLACE land surface model. The mechanism by which the land surface processes affect the moisture transport and the convection during the onset of the southeast Asian monsoon were analyzed. The results indicated that land surface processes played an important role in modifying the low-level wind field over two major branches of the circulation: the southwest low-level flow over the Indo-china peninsula and the northern, cold frontal intrusion from southern China. The surface sensible and latent heat fluxes modified the low-level temperature distribution and gradient, and therefore the low-level wind due to the thermal wind effect. The more realistic forcing of the sensible and latent heat fluxes from the detailed, land surface model improved the low-level wind simulation apd associated moisture transport and convection.

Evolution of the Large Scale Circulation, Cloud Structure and Regional Water Cycle Associated with the South China Sea Monsoon During May-June, 1998

Science.gov (United States)

Lau, William K.-M.; Li, Xiao-Fan

2001-01-01

In this paper, changes in the large-scale circulation, cloud structures and regional water cycle associated with the evolution of the South China Sea (SCS) monsoon in May-June 1998 were investigated using data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and field data from the South China Sea Monsoon Experiment (SCSMEX). Results showed that both tropical and extratropical processes strongly influenced the onset and evolution of the SCS monsoon. Prior to the onset of the SCS monsoon, enhanced convective activities associated with the Madden and Julian Oscillation were detected over the Indian Ocean, and the SCS was under the influence of the West Pacific Anticyclone (WPA) with prevailing low level easterlies and suppressed convection. Establishment of low-level westerlies across Indo-China, following the development of a Bay of Bengal depression played an important role in building up convective available potential energy over the SCS. The onset of SCS monsoon appeared to be triggered by the equatorward penetration of extratropical frontal system, which was established over the coastal region of southern China and Taiwan in early May. Convective activities over the SCS were found to vary inversely with those over the Yangtze River Valley (YRV). Analysis of TRMM microwave and precipitation radar data revealed that during the onset phase, convection over the northern SCS consisted of squall-type rain cell embedded in meso-scale complexes similar to extratropical systems. The radar Z-factor intensity indicated that SCS clouds possessed a bimodal distribution, with a pronounced signal (less than 30dBz) at a height of 2-3 km, and another one (less than 25 dBz) at the 8-10 km level, separated by a well-defined melting level indicated by a bright band at around 5-km level. The stratiform-to-convective cloud ratio was approximately 1:1 in the pre-onset phase, but increased to 5:1 in the active phase. Regional water budget calculations indicated that during the

Predictor-Year Subspace Clustering Based Ensemble Prediction of Indian Summer Monsoon

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Moumita Saha

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Forecasting the Indian summer monsoon is a challenging task due to its complex and nonlinear behavior. A large number of global climatic variables with varying interaction patterns over years influence monsoon. Various statistical and neural prediction models have been proposed for forecasting monsoon, but many of them fail to capture variability over years. The skill of predictor variables of monsoon also evolves over time. In this article, we propose a joint-clustering of monsoon years and predictors for understanding and predicting the monsoon. This is achieved by subspace clustering algorithm. It groups the years based on prevailing global climatic condition using statistical clustering technique and subsequently for each such group it identifies significant climatic predictor variables which assist in better prediction. Prediction model is designed to frame individual cluster using random forest of regression tree. Prediction of aggregate and regional monsoon is attempted. Mean absolute error of 5.2% is obtained for forecasting aggregate Indian summer monsoon. Errors in predicting the regional monsoons are also comparable in comparison to the high variation of regional precipitation. Proposed joint-clustering based ensemble model is observed to be superior to existing monsoon prediction models and it also surpasses general nonclustering based prediction models.

Tropical/Subtropical Peatland Development and Global CH4 during the Last Glaciation.

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Hai; Lan, Jianghu; Sheng, Enguo; Liu, Yong; Liu, Bin; Yu, Keke; Ye, Yuanda; Cheng, Peng; Qiang, Xiaoke; Lu, Fengyan; Wang, Xulong

2016-07-28

Knowledge of peatland development over the tropical/subtropical zone during the last glaciation is critical for understanding the glacial global methane cycle. Here we present a well-dated 'peat deposit-lake sediment' alternate sequence at Tengchong, southwestern China, and discuss the peatland development and its linkage to the global glacial methane cycle. Peat layers were formed during the cold Marine Isotope Stage (MIS)-2 and -4, whereas lake sediments coincided with the relatively warm MIS-3, which is possibly related to the orbital/suborbital variations in both temperature and Asian summer monsoon intensity. The Tengchong peatland formation pattern is broadly synchronous with those over subtropical southern China and other tropical/subtropical areas, but it is clearly in contrast to those over the mid-high Northern Hemisphere. The results of this work suggest that the shifts of peatland development between the tropical/subtropical zone and mid-high Northern Hemisphere may have played important roles in the glacial/interglacial global atmospheric CH4 cycles.

Monsoonal Responses to External Forcings over the Past Millennium: A Model Study (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, J.; Wang, B.

2009-12-01

understanding the latitudinal differences of the monsoonal responses to external forcings and internal feedback processes. The strength of the forced response depends on latitude. On centennial-millennial time scales, the variation of the extratropical and subtropical rainfall tends to follow the effective solar radiation forcing closely; the tropical rainfall is less sensitive to the effective solar radiation forcing but responds significantly to the modern anthropogenic CO2 forcing. The spatial patterns and structures of the forced response differ from the internal mode (i.e., interannual variability that arises primarily from the internal feedback processes within the climate system). Further, the behavior of the internal mode is effectively modulated by changes in the mean state on the centennial to millennial time scales. These findings have important ramification in understanding the differences and linkages between the forced and internal modes of variability as well as in promoting communication between scientists studying modern- and paleo-monsoon variations.

Skill of Global Raw and Postprocessed Ensemble Predictions of Rainfall over Northern Tropical Africa

Science.gov (United States)

Vogel, Peter; Knippertz, Peter; Fink, Andreas H.; Schlueter, Andreas; Gneiting, Tilmann

2018-04-01

Accumulated precipitation forecasts are of high socioeconomic importance for agriculturally dominated societies in northern tropical Africa. In this study, we analyze the performance of nine operational global ensemble prediction systems (EPSs) relative to climatology-based forecasts for 1 to 5-day accumulated precipitation based on the monsoon seasons 2007-2014 for three regions within northern tropical Africa. To assess the full potential of raw ensemble forecasts across spatial scales, we apply state-of-the-art statistical postprocessing methods in form of Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) and Ensemble Model Output Statistics (EMOS), and verify against station and spatially aggregated, satellite-based gridded observations. Raw ensemble forecasts are uncalibrated, unreliable, and underperform relative to climatology, independently of region, accumulation time, monsoon season, and ensemble. Differences between raw ensemble and climatological forecasts are large, and partly stem from poor prediction for low precipitation amounts. BMA and EMOS postprocessed forecasts are calibrated, reliable, and strongly improve on the raw ensembles, but - somewhat disappointingly - typically do not outperform climatology. Most EPSs exhibit slight improvements over the period 2007-2014, but overall have little added value compared to climatology. We suspect that the parametrization of convection is a potential cause for the sobering lack of ensemble forecast skill in a region dominated by mesoscale convective systems.

The Plio-Pleistocene Evolution of the Indian Ocean Monsoonal System: Evidence from the Arabian Sea and East Africa

Science.gov (United States)

Wilson, K. E.; Maslin, M. A.; Mackay, A. W.; Leng, M. J.; Kingston, J.; Deino, A.

2011-12-01

It is important to identify the teleconnections between high latitude forcing and tropical monsoonal circulation in order to understand climate change in East Africa during the Plio-Pleistocene. Here we present a record of aeolian dust transport to the Arabian Sea between approximately 2.9 and 2.3 million years ago (Ma), constructed from the high-resolution XRF scanning of sediment cores from ODP Sites 721 and 722. Variations in the delivery of aeolian dust to the Arabian Sea, reflected in normalised flux of titanium, show that monsoonal circulation prior to 2.6 Ma, and after 2.5 Ma, was highly variable and primarily driven by orbitally-forced changes in tropical summer insolation, strongly modulated by the 400,000 year cycle of orbital eccentricity. This is confirmed by the presence of lakes in the East African Rift Valley during key eccentricity maxima. The dust record is coupled with the analysis of a well-dated series of diatomite units from the Baringo-Bogoria Basin which document the rhythmic cycling of large, precessionally-driven freshwater lakes which periodically occupied the Central Kenyan Rift Valley between 2.7 and 2.58 Ma. Analysis of one of these lake sequences using stable oxygen isotope measurements of diatom silica, combined with the XRF analysis of whole-sample geochemistry, reveals that the deep lake phase was characterised by fluctuations in rainfall and lake depth over cycles lasting, on average, 1,400 years. The presence of these millennial-scale fluctuations is confirmed by evidence of abrupt climate cycles in the oceanic dust record from the Arabian Sea.

A climate change-induced threat to the ecological resilience of a subtropical monsoon evergreen broad-leaved forest in Southern China.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhou, Guoyi; Peng, Changhui; Li, Yuelin; Liu, Shizhong; Zhang, Qianmei; Tang, Xuli; Liu, Juxiu; Yan, Junhua; Zhang, Deqiang; Chu, Guowei

2013-04-01

Recent studies have suggested that tropical forests may not be resilient against climate change in the long term, primarily owing to predicted reductions in rainfall and forest productivity, increased tree mortality, and declining forest biomass carbon sinks. These changes will be caused by drought-induced water stress and ecosystem disturbances. Several recent studies have reported that climate change has increased tree mortality in temperate and boreal forests, or both mortality and recruitment rates in tropical forests. However, no study has yet examined these changes in the subtropical forests that account for the majority of China's forested land. In this study, we describe how the monsoon evergreen broad-leaved forest has responded to global warming and drought stress using 32 years of data from forest observation plots. Due to an imbalance in mortality and recruitment, and changes in diameter growth rates between larger and smaller trees and among different functional groups, the average DBH of trees and forest biomass have decreased. Sap flow measurements also showed that larger trees were more stressed than smaller trees by the warming and drying environment. As a result, the monsoon evergreen broad-leaved forest community is undergoing a transition from a forest dominated by a cohort of fewer and larger individuals to a forest dominated by a cohort of more and smaller individuals, with a different species composition, suggesting that subtropical forests are threatened by their lack of resilience against long-term climate change. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Role of sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Indo-Pacific region in the northeast Asia severe drought in summer 2014: month-to-month perspective

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Zhiqing; Fan, Ke; Wang, HuiJun

2017-09-01

The severe drought over northeast Asia in summer 2014 and the contribution to it by sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Indo-Pacific region were investigated from the month-to-month perspective. The severe drought was accompanied by weak lower-level summer monsoon flow and featured an obvious northward movement during summer. The mid-latitude Asian summer (MAS) pattern and East Asia/Pacific teleconnection (EAP) pattern, induced by the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) and western North Pacific summer monsoon (WNPSM) rainfall anomalies respectively, were two main bridges between the SST anomalies in the tropical Indo-Pacific region and the severe drought. Warming in the Arabian Sea induced reduced rainfall over northeast India and then triggered a negative MAS pattern favoring the severe drought in June 2014. In July 2014, warming in the tropical western North Pacific led to a strong WNPSM and increased rainfall over the Philippine Sea, triggering a positive EAP pattern. The equatorial eastern Pacific and local warming resulted in increased rainfall over the off-equatorial western Pacific and triggered an EAP-like pattern. The EAP pattern and EAP-like pattern contributed to the severe drought in July 2014. A negative Indian Ocean dipole induced an anomalous meridional circulation, and warming in the equatorial eastern Pacific induced an anomalous zonal circulation, in August 2014. The two anomalous cells led to a weak ISM and WNPSM, triggering the negative MAS and EAP patterns responsible for the severe drought. Two possible reasons for the northward movement of the drought were also proposed.

Causal evidence between monsoon and evolution of rhizomyine rodents.

Science.gov (United States)

López-Antoñanzas, Raquel; Knoll, Fabien; Wan, Shiming; Flynn, Lawrence J

2015-03-11

The modern Asian monsoonal systems are currently believed to have originated around the end of the Oligocene following a crucial step of uplift of the Tibetan-Himalayan highlands. Although monsoon possibly drove the evolution of many mammal lineages during the Neogene, no evidence thereof has been provided so far. We examined the evolutionary history of a clade of rodents, the Rhizomyinae, in conjunction with our current knowledge of monsoon fluctuations over time. The macroevolutionary dynamics of rhizomyines were analyzed within a well-constrained phylogenetic framework coupled with biogeographic and evolutionary rate studies. The evolutionary novelties developed by these rodents were surveyed in parallel with the fluctuations of the Indian monsoon so as to evaluate synchroneity and postulate causal relationships. We showed the existence of three drops in biodiversity during the evolution of rhizomyines, all of which reflected elevated extinction rates. Our results demonstrated linkage of monsoon variations with the evolution and biogeography of rhizomyines. Paradoxically, the evolution of rhizomyines was accelerated during the phases of weakening of the monsoons, not of strengthening, most probably because at those intervals forest habitats declined, which triggered extinction and progressive specialization toward a burrowing existence.

Modelling Monsoons: Understanding and Predicting Current and Future Behaviour

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Turner, A; Sperber, K R; Slingo, J M; Meehl, G A; Mechoso, C R; Kimoto, M; Giannini, A

2008-09-16

The global monsoon system is so varied and complex that understanding and predicting its diverse behaviour remains a challenge that will occupy modellers for many years to come. Despite the difficult task ahead, an improved monsoon modelling capability has been realized through the inclusion of more detailed physics of the climate system and higher resolution in our numerical models. Perhaps the most crucial improvement to date has been the development of coupled ocean-atmosphere models. From subseasonal to interdecadal timescales, only through the inclusion of air-sea interaction can the proper phasing and teleconnections of convection be attained with respect to sea surface temperature variations. Even then, the response to slow variations in remote forcings (e.g., El Nino-Southern Oscillation) does not result in a robust solution, as there are a host of competing modes of variability that must be represented, including those that appear to be chaotic. Understanding the links between monsoons and land surface processes is not as mature as that explored regarding air-sea interactions. A land surface forcing signal appears to dominate the onset of wet season rainfall over the North American monsoon region, though the relative role of ocean versus land forcing remains a topic of investigation in all the monsoon systems. Also, improved forecasts have been made during periods in which additional sounding observations are available for data assimilation. Thus, there is untapped predictability that can only be attained through the development of a more comprehensive observing system for all monsoon regions. Additionally, improved parameterizations - for example, of convection, cloud, radiation, and boundary layer schemes as well as land surface processes - are essential to realize the full potential of monsoon predictability. Dynamical considerations require ever increased horizontal resolution (probably to 0.5 degree or higher) in order to resolve many monsoon features

Seasonal Precipitation Variability Effects on Carbon Exchange in a Tropical Dry Forest of Northwest Mexico

Science.gov (United States)

Verduzco, V.; Garatuza-Payan, J.; Yépez, E. A.; Watts, C. J.; Rodriguez, J. C.; Robles-Morua, A.; Vivoni, E. R.

2015-12-01

The Tropical Dry Forest (TDF) cover a large area in tropical and subtropical regions in the Americas and its productivity is thought to have an important contribution to the atmospheric carbon fluxes. However, due to this ecosystem complex dynamics, our understanding about the mechanisms controlling net ecosystem exchange is limited. In this study, five years of continue water and carbon fluxes measurements from eddy covariance complemented with remotely sensed vegetation greenness were used to investigate the ecosystem carbon balance of a TDF in the North American Monsoon region under different hydro climatic conditions. We identified a large CO2 efflux at the start of the summer season that is strongly related to the preceding winter precipitation and greenness. Since this CO2 efflux occurs prior to vegetation green-up, we infer a predominant heterotrophic control owed to high decomposition of accumulated labile soil organic matter from prior growing season. Overall, ecosystem respiration has an important effect on the net ecosystem production over the year, but can be overwhelmed by the strength of the primary productivity during the monsoon season. Precipitation characteristics during the monsoon have significant controls on sustaining carbon fixation in the TDF ecosystem into the fall season. A threshold of ~350 to 400 mm of summer precipitation was identify to switch the annual carbon balance in the TDF ecosystem from a net source (+102 g C/m2/yr) to a net sink (-249 g C/m2/yr). This research points at the needs for understanding the potential effects of changing seasonal precipitation patterns on ecosystem dynamics and carbon sequestration in subtropical regions.

A 400-year tree-ring chronology from the tropical treeline of North America.

Science.gov (United States)

Biondi, F

2001-05-01

High-elevation sites in the tropics may be particularly sensitive to rapid climate change. By sampling treeline populations, I have developed the first extensive (> 300 years) tree-ring chronology in tropical North America. The site is Nevado de Colima, at the western end of the Mexican Neovolcanic Belt, and the species studied is Mexican mountain pine (Pinus hartwegii). Despite past logging in the area, 300 to 500-year old pines were found at 3600-3700 m elevation, about 300 m below the present treeline. The Nevado de Colima tree-ring chronology is well replicated from 1600 to 1997. Calibration with Colima climatic records points to summer monsoon precipitation as the strongest dendroclimatic signal. Most trees also exhibit extremely low growth in 1913 and 1914, following the January 1913 Plinian eruption of the Volcan de Colima. Because P. hartwegii is found on top of high mountains from Mexico to Guatemala, there is potential for developing a network of tropical treeline chronologies.

Relation between century-scale Holocene arid intervals in tropical and temperate zones

Science.gov (United States)

Lamb, H. F.; Gasse, F.; Benkaddour, A.; El Hamouti, N.; van der Kaars, S.; Perkins, W. T.; Pearce, N. J.; Roberts, C. N.

1995-01-01

CLIMATE records from lake sediments in tropical Africa, Central America and west Asia show several century-scale arid intervals during the Holocene1-10. These may have been caused by temporary weakening of the monsoonal circulation associated with reduced northward heat transport by the oceans7 or by feedback processes stimulated by changes in tropical land-surface conditions10. Here we use a lake-sediment record from the montane Mediterranean zone of Morocco to address the question of whether these events were also felt in temperate continental regions. We find evidence of arid intervals of similar duration, periodicity and possibly timing to those in the tropics. But our pollen data show that the forest vegetation was not substantially affected by these events, indicating that precipitation remained adequate during the summer growing season. Thus, the depletion of the groundwater aquifer that imprinted the dry events in the lake record must have resulted from reduced winter precipitation. We suggest that the occurrence of arid events during the summer in the tropics but during the winter at temperate latitudes can be rationalized if they are both associated with cooler sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic.

Global monsoon precipitation responses to large volcanic eruptions.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Fei; Chai, Jing; Wang, Bin; Liu, Jian; Zhang, Xiao; Wang, Zhiyuan

2016-04-11

Climate variation of global monsoon (GM) precipitation involves both internal feedback and external forcing. Here, we focus on strong volcanic forcing since large eruptions are known to be a dominant mechanism in natural climate change. It is not known whether large volcanoes erupted at different latitudes have distinctive effects on the monsoon in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and the Southern Hemisphere (SH). We address this issue using a 1500-year volcanic sensitivity simulation by the Community Earth System Model version 1.0 (CESM1). Volcanoes are classified into three types based on their meridional aerosol distributions: NH volcanoes, SH volcanoes and equatorial volcanoes. Using the model simulation, we discover that the GM precipitation in one hemisphere is enhanced significantly by the remote volcanic forcing occurring in the other hemisphere. This remote volcanic forcing-induced intensification is mainly through circulation change rather than moisture content change. In addition, the NH volcanic eruptions are more efficient in reducing the NH monsoon precipitation than the equatorial ones, and so do the SH eruptions in weakening the SH monsoon, because the equatorial eruptions, despite reducing moisture content, have weaker effects in weakening the off-equatorial monsoon circulation than the subtropical-extratropical volcanoes do.

Influence of cloud radiative effects on tropical circulation and hydrological cycle in the Mid-Holocene

Science.gov (United States)

Izumi, Kenji; Kageyama, Masa; Bony, Sandrine; Braconnot, Pascale

2016-04-01

Paleoenvironmental data in particular, vegetation and lake-status at mid-Holocene (6,000 years ago) in Sahara shows that African monsoon extended much further north than today. Much of this change results from the changes in insolation driven by precession of the Earth's orbit, but in the state-of-the-art climate models, this factor alone is insufficient to explain the magnitude of the change. Previous studies showed that ocean and vegetation feedbacks affect the mid-Holocene monsoon and that the incorporation of these feedbacks in models improves the simulation of the hydrological cycle. However, it is not sufficient to reduce the discrepancies between simulated and reconstructed surface climates. In this study, we investigate the extent to which the simulation of cloud-radiative effects matters for the simulation of paleo-climatic changes, and past changes in the position and strength of the tropical rain belts in particular. This is done by running a general circulation model with and without clouds-radiation interactions using the IPSL model. The impact of cloud -radiative effects, which prevents the precipitation band to move north, on the tropical circulation and precipitation changes in mid-Holocene experiments will be discussed. Additionally, we will show the simulated effects of land cover change over Sahara.

Seed dormancy and persistent sediment seed banks of ephemeral freshwater rock pools in the Australian monsoon tropics.

Science.gov (United States)

Cross, Adam T; Turner, Shane R; Renton, Michael; Baskin, Jerry M; Dixon, Kingsley W; Merritt, David J

2015-04-01

Rock pools are small, geologically stable freshwater ecosystems that are both hydrologically and biologically isolated. They harbour high levels of plant endemism and experience environmental unpredictability driven by the presence of water over variable temporal scales. This study examined the hypothesis that the sediment seed bank in monsoon tropical freshwater rock pools would persist through one or more periods of desiccation, with seed dormancy regulating germination timing in response to rock pool inundation and drying events. Seeds were collected from seven dominant rock pool species, and germination biology and seed dormancy were assessed under laboratory conditions in response to light, temperature and germination stimulators (gibberellic acid, karrikinolide and ethylene). Field surveys of seedling emergence from freshwater rock pools in the Kimberley region of Western Australia were undertaken, and sediment samples were collected from 41 vegetated rock pools. Seedling emergence and seed bank persistence in response to multiple wetting and drying cycles were determined. The sediment seed bank of individual rock pools was large (13 824 ± 307 to 218 320 ± 42 412 seeds m(-2) for the five species investigated) and spatially variable. Seedling density for these same species in the field ranged from 13 696 to 87 232 seedlings m(-2). Seeds of rock pool taxa were physiologically dormant, with germination promoted by after-ripening and exposure to ethylene or karrikinolide. Patterns of seedling emergence varied between species and were finely tuned to seasonal temperature and moisture conditions, with the proportions of emergent seedlings differing between species through multiple inundation events. A viable seed bank persisted after ten consecutive laboratory inundation events, and seeds retained viability in dry sediments for at least 3 years. The persistent seed bank in freshwater rock pools is likely to provide resilience to plant

Daily variations in pathogenic bacterial populations in a monsoon influenced tropical environment

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Khandeparker, L.; Anil, A.C.; Naik, S.D.; Gaonkar, C.C.

and an assessment of the health of such an ecosystem benefits from high resolution observations. Virulent pathogenic Vibrio species are expected more frequently in tropical marine environments, since the virulence gene expression seems to increase at elevated... cells ml−1 (July 2009) to 5.9 x 107 cells ml−1 (February 2011) (Fig. 2b). Inter annual variations point out that the total bacterial abundance increased 5 from 2009 to 2011, while the viable bacterial numbers decreased. Complex physical, chemical...

The classification of PM10 concentrations in Johor Based on Seasonal Monsoons

Science.gov (United States)

Hamid, Hazrul Abdul; Hanafi Rahmat, Muhamad; Aisyah Sapani, Siti

2018-04-01

Air is the most important living resource in life. Contaminated air could adversely affect human health and the environment, especially during the monsoon season. Contamination occurs as a result of human action and haze. There are several pollutants present in the air where one of them is PM10. Secondary data was obtained from the Department of Environment from 2010 until 2014 and was analyzed using the hourly average of PM10 concentrations. This paper examined the relation between PM10 concentrations and the monsoon seasons (Northeast Monsoon and Southwest Monsoon) in Larkin and Pasir Gudang. It was expected that the concentration of PM10 would be higher during the Southwest Monsoon as it is a dry season. The data revealed that the highest PM10 concentrations were recorded between 2010 to 2014 during this particular monsoon season. The characteristics of PM10 concentration were compared using descriptive statistics based on the monsoon seasons and classified using the hierarchical cluster analysis (Ward Methods). The annual average of PM10 concentration during the Southwest Monsoon had exceeded the standard set by the Malaysia Ambient Air Quality Guidelines (50 μg/m3) while the PM10 concentration during the Northeast Monsoon was below the acceptable level for both stations. The dendrogram displayed showed two clusters for each monsoon season for both stations excepted for the PM10 concentration during the Northeast Monsoon in Larkin which was classified into three clusters due to the haze in 2010. Overall, the concentration of PM10 in 2013 was higher based on the clustering shown for every monsoon season at both stations according to the characteristics in the descriptive statistics.

Holocene precipitation changes in the deep tropics recorded by Speleothems (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, X.; Auler, A. S.; Edwards, R.; Kong, X.; Cheng, H.; Cruz, F. W.; Wang, Y.; Broecker, W. S.

2010-12-01

We have obtained a high-resolution oxygen isotope (δ18O) record of cave calcite from Paraiso Cave, eastern Amazon, which covers most of the Holocene. Its chronology was determined by U-Th ages from three column-shaped stalagmites. Their δ18O profiles replicate among their contemporaneous growth periods. Therefore, the samples were likely precipitated under equilibrium conditions and their oxygen isotopic variations are primarily caused by climate change. We find that the δ18O decreases steadily from ~11.0 to 5.0 thousand years ago, with a growth gap between ~8.4 to 6.3 thousand years ago, and then gradually increases until the present. The large amplitude of the δ18O change (up to 4 per mil) suggests that the variation in δ18O value is dominated by meteoric precipitation change at this equatorial site. In order to investigate the interactions between the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), monsoons and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) activity during the Holocene, we compare the Paraiso record to speleothem records from other locations in the deep tropics, namely, cave sites from Flores, Borneo and Peru. We find that all these speleothem records are consistent, with a progressive δ18O decrease (rainfall increase) during the early Holocene, probably in response to the southward retreat of the ITCZ from its northernmost location in the early Holocene. This is evident from the strong anti-correlation between the speleothem monsoonal records from China and southern Brazil. However, our record is distinct from the others during the last 4 thousand years, when it switches to a continuous δ18O increase (rainfall decrease) trend, while the others flatten out. We propose that, during the late Holocene, the strengthened South American Summer Monsoon may override the ENSO influence and cause the discrepancy in precipitation between eastern Amazon and other deep tropical cave sites.

An intrathermocline eddy and a tropical cyclone in the Bay of Bengal

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Gordon, A.L.; Shroyer, E.; Murty, V.S.N.

RepoRts | 7:46218 | DOI: 10.1038/srep46218 www.nature.com/scientificreports An Intrathermocline Eddy and a tropical cyclone in the Bay of Bengal Arnold L. Gordon1, Emily Shroyer2 & V. S. N. Murty3 The Bay of Bengal, subjected to monsoonal forcing..., India. Correspondence and requests for materials should be addressed to A.L.G. (email: agordon@ldeo.columbia.edu) Received: 17 October 2016 Accepted: 13 March 2017 Published: 12 April 2017 OPEN www.nature.com/scientificreports/ 2Scientific RepoRts | 7...

Seasonal and interannual variability of the Mid-Holocene East Asian monsoon in coral δ18O records from the South China Sea

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, Donghuai; Gagan, Michael K.; Cheng, Hai; Scott-Gagan, Heather; Dykoski, Carolyn A.; Edwards, R. Lawrence; Su, Ruixia

2005-08-01

Understanding the full range of past monsoon variability, with reference to specific monsoon seasons, is essential to test coupled climate models and improve their predictive capabilities. We present a 54-year long, high-resolution skeletal oxygen isotope (δ18O) record extracted from a well-preserved, massive Porites sp. coral at Hainan Island, South China Sea, to investigate East Asian monsoon variability during summer and winter ∼4400 calendar yr ago. Analysis of modern coral δ18O confirms that Porites from Hainan Island are well positioned to record winter monsoon forcing of sea surface temperature (SST), as well as the influence of summer monsoon rainfall on sea surface salinity (SSS). The coral record for ∼4400 yr ago shows ∼9% amplification of the annual cycle of δ18O, in good agreement with coupled ocean-atmosphere models showing higher summer rainfall (lower coral δ18O) and cooler winter SSTs (higher coral δ18O) in response to greater Northern Hemisphere insolation seasonality during the Middle Holocene. Mean SSTs in the South China Sea during the Mid-Holocene were within 0.5 °C of modern values, yet the mean δ18O for the fossil coral is ∼0.6‰ higher than that for the modern coral, suggesting that the δ18O of surface seawater was higher by at least ∼0.5‰, relative to modern values. The 18O-enrichment is likely to be driven by greater advection of moisture towards the Asian landmass, enhanced monsoon wind-induced evaporation and vertical mixing, and/or invigorated advection of saltier 18O-enriched Pacific water into the relatively fresh South China Sea. The 18O-enrichment of the northern South China Sea ∼4400 yr ago contributes to mounting evidence for recent freshening of the tropical Western Pacific. Today, winter SST and summer SSS variability in the South China Sea reflect the interannual influence of ENSO and the biennial variability inherent to monsoon precipitation. Spectral analysis of winter SSTs ∼4400 yr ago reveals a

Why the Australian Monsoon Strengthened During the Cold Last Glacial Maximum?

Science.gov (United States)

Yan, M.; Wang, B.; Liu, J.; Ning, L.

2017-12-01

The multi-model ensemble simulation suggests that the global monsoon and most sub-monsoons are weakened during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) due to the lower green-house gases concentration, the presence of the ice-sheets and the weakened seasonal distribution of insolation. In contrast, the Australian monsoon is strengthened during the LGM. The precipitation there increases in austral summer and decreases in austral winter, so that the annual range or monsoonality increases. The strengthened monsoonality is mainly due to the decreased precipitation in austral winter, which is primarily caused by circulation changes, although the reduced atmospheric water vapor also has a moderate contribution. On the other hand, the strengthened Australian summer monsoon rainfall is likely caused by the change of land-sea thermal contrast due to the alteration of land-sea configuration and by the asymmetric change in sea surface temperature (SST) over Indo-Pacific warm pool region. The strengthened land-sea thermal contrast and Western Pacific-Eastern Indian Ocean thermal gradients in the pre-summer monsoon season triggers a cyclonic wind anomaly that is maintained to the monsoon season, thereby increasing summer precipitation. The increased summer precipitation is associated with the increased cloud cover over the land and decreased cloud cover over the ocean. This may weaken the land-sea thermal contrast, which agrees with the paleoclimate reconstruction. The biases between different models are likely related to the different responses of SST over the North Atlantic Ocean in the pre-summer monsoon season.

Winter/Summer Monsoon Experiment

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Winter/Summer Monsoon Experiment (MONEX) was conducted during the First Global GARP (Global Atmospheric Research Program) Experiment (FGGE). An international...

Stable isotopic characteristic of Taiwan's precipitation: A case study of western Pacific monsoon region

Science.gov (United States)

Peng, Tsung-Ren; Wang, Chung-Ho; Huang, Chi-Chao; Fei, Li-Yuan; Chen, Chen-Tung Arthur; Hwong, Jeen-Lian

2010-01-01

The stable oxygen and hydrogen isotopic features of precipitation in Taiwan, an island located at the western Pacific monsoon area, are presented from nearly 3,500 samples collected during the past decade for 20 stations. Results demonstrate that moisture sources from diverse air masses with different isotopic signals are the main parameter in controlling the precipitation's isotope characteristics. The air mass from polar continental (Pc) region contributes the precipitation with high deuterium excess values (up to 23‰) and relatively enriched isotope compositions (e.g., - 3.2‰ for δ 18O) during the winter with prevailing northeasterly monsoon. By contrast, air masses from equatorial maritime (Em) and tropical maritime (Tm) supply the precipitation with low deuterium excess values (as low as about 7‰) and more depleted isotope values (e.g., - 8.9‰ and - 6.0‰ for δ 18O of Tm and Em, respectively) during the summer with prevailing southwesterly monsoon. Thus seasonal differences in terms of δ 18O, δD, and deuterium excess values are primarily influenced by the interactions among various precipitation sources. While these various air masses travel through Taiwan, secondary evaporation effects further modify the isotope characteristics of the inland precipitation, such as raindrop evaporation (reduces the deuterium excess of winter precipitation) and moisture recycling (increases the deuterium excess of summer precipitation). The semi-quantitative estimations in terms of evaluation for changes in the deuterium excess suggest that the raindrop evaporation fractions for winter precipitation range 7% to 15% and the proportions of recycling moisture in summer precipitation are less than 5%. Additionally, the isotopic altitude gradient in terms of δ 18O for summer precipitation is - 0.22‰/100 m, greater than - 0.17‰/100 m of winter precipitation. The greater isotopic gradient in summer can be attributed to a higher temperature vs. altitude gradient

Global monsoon precipitation responses to large volcanic eruptions

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Fei; Chai, Jing; Wang, Bin; Liu, Jian; Zhang, Xiao; Wang, Zhiyuan

2016-01-01

Climate variation of global monsoon (GM) precipitation involves both internal feedback and external forcing. Here, we focus on strong volcanic forcing since large eruptions are known to be a dominant mechanism in natural climate change. It is not known whether large volcanoes erupted at different latitudes have distinctive effects on the monsoon in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and the Southern Hemisphere (SH). We address this issue using a 1500-year volcanic sensitivity simulation by the Community Earth System Model version 1.0 (CESM1). Volcanoes are classified into three types based on their meridional aerosol distributions: NH volcanoes, SH volcanoes and equatorial volcanoes. Using the model simulation, we discover that the GM precipitation in one hemisphere is enhanced significantly by the remote volcanic forcing occurring in the other hemisphere. This remote volcanic forcing-induced intensification is mainly through circulation change rather than moisture content change. In addition, the NH volcanic eruptions are more efficient in reducing the NH monsoon precipitation than the equatorial ones, and so do the SH eruptions in weakening the SH monsoon, because the equatorial eruptions, despite reducing moisture content, have weaker effects in weakening the off-equatorial monsoon circulation than the subtropical-extratropical volcanoes do. PMID:27063141

Measuring the monsoon

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Ramaswamy, V.; Nair, R.R.

that are constant enough to be used for navigation. But the monsoon also acts as a sign of the climatic times. Although its timing is remarkably regular, the intensity of its effects varies considerably from year to year. On top of natural variations in the strength...

Turbulence characteristics of surface boundary layer over the Kalpakkam tropical coastal station, India

Science.gov (United States)

Prasad, K. B. R. R. Hari; Srinivas, C. V.; Singh, A. Bagavth; Naidu, C. V.; Baskaran, R.; Venkatraman, B.

2018-05-01

In this study turbulent fluxes and their intensity features are studied in different seasons at the tropical Indian coastal station, Kalpakkam. Measurements from Ultrasonic anemometer at 10 m agl over 30-day period of four seasons (winter 1-30 January; summer/spring 1-30 April; SW monsoon 1-30 July; NE monsoon 1-30 October) in 2013 and 2014 are used for this work. Various surface layer parameters viz, friction velocity (u *), Obukhov length (L), momentum flux (M), turbulent heat flux (H), turbulence kinetic energy (TKE) are computed using eddy correlation method. Results indicate that the study region is highly turbulent in summer followed by NE monsoon, winter and SW monsoon seasons. Derived parameters indicate that shear is the main contributing mechanism for TKE generation during SW monsoon and both shear and buoyancy contributed for the generation of TKE in other seasons. Site specific turbulent intensity relationships were developed by analyzing second order moments of 3D wind components as a function of stability parameter (z/L). The turbulent components of wind followed 1/3 power law in the unstable regime and - 1 power law in the stable regime. Comparisons with previous studies indicate that the turbulent intensity for horizontal winds at the coastal station is relatively less especially in the unstable conditions. The derived relationships are found to be unique and vary seasonally and suggest their application for improved modeling of atmospheric dispersion in the study domain. Rate of dissipation of TKE (ϕ ɛ) for stable and unstable conditions at the observation site is different from the earlier proposed relationships in the literature. Thus, a new relationship is proposed for the better fit of the data at this site.

Testing a flexible method to reduce false monsoon onsets.

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Mathew Alexander Stiller-Reeve

Full Text Available To generate information about the monsoon onset and withdrawal we have to choose a monsoon definition and apply it to data. One problem that arises is that false monsoon onsets can hamper our analysis, which is often alleviated by smoothing the data in time or space. Another problem is that local communities or stakeholder groups may define the monsoon differently. We therefore aim to develop a technique that reduces false onsets for high-resolution gridded data, while also being flexible for different requirements that can be tailored to particular end-users. In this study, we explain how we developed our technique and demonstrate how it successfully reduces false onsets and withdrawals. The presented results yield improved information about the monsoon length and its interannual variability. Due to this improvement, we are able to extract information from higher resolution data sets. This implies that we can potentially get a more detailed picture of local climate variations that can be used in more local climate application projects such as community-based adaptations.

Contribution of Tropical Cyclones to the North Pacific Climatological Rainfall as Observed from Satellites.

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Rodgers, Edward B.; Adler, Robert F.; Pierce, Harold F.

2000-10-01

Tropical cyclone monthly rainfall amounts are estimated from passive microwave satellite observations for an 11-yr period. These satellite-derived rainfall amounts are used to assess the impact of tropical cyclone rainfall in altering the geographical, seasonal, and interannual distribution of the North Pacific Ocean total rainfall during June-November when tropical cyclones are most important.To estimate these tropical cyclone rainfall amounts, mean monthly rain rates are derived from passive microwave satellite observations within 444-km radius of the center of those North Pacific tropical cyclones that reached storm stage and greater. These rain-rate observations are converted to monthly rainfall amounts and then compared with those for nontropical cyclone systems.The main results of this study indicate that 1) tropical cyclones contribute 7% of the rainfall to the entire domain of the North Pacific during the tropical cyclone season and 12%, 3%, and 4% when the study area is limited to, respectively, the western, central, and eastern third of the ocean; 2) the maximum tropical cyclone rainfall is poleward (5°-10° latitude depending on longitude) of the maximum nontropical cyclone rainfall; 3) tropical cyclones contribute a maximum of 30% northeast of the Philippine Islands and 40% off the lower Baja California coast; 4) in the western North Pacific, the tropical cyclone rainfall lags the total rainfall by approximately two months and shows seasonal latitudinal variation following the Intertropical Convergence Zone; and 5) in general, tropical cyclone rainfall is enhanced during the El Niño years by warm SSTs in the eastern North Pacific and by the monsoon trough in the western and central North Pacific.

Comparative Study of Monsoon Rainfall Variability over India and the Odisha State

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K C Gouda

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Indian summer monsoon (ISM plays an important role in the weather and climate system over India. The rainfall during monsoon season controls many sectors from agriculture, food, energy, and water, to the management of disasters. Being a coastal province on the eastern side of India, Odisha is one of the most important states affected by the monsoon rainfall and associated hydro-meteorological systems. The variability of monsoon rainfall is highly unpredictable at multiple scales both in space and time. In this study, the monsoon variability over the state of Odisha is studied using the daily gridded rainfall data from India Meteorological Department (IMD. A comparative analysis of the behaviour of monsoon rainfall at a larger scale (India, regional scale (Odisha, and sub-regional scale (zones of Odisha is carried out in terms of the seasonal cycle of monsoon rainfall and its interannual variability. It is seen that there is no synchronization in the seasonal monsoon category (normal/excess/deficit when analysed over large (India and regional (Odisha scales. The impact of El Niño, La Niña, and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD on the monsoon rainfall at both scales (large scale and regional scale is analysed and compared. The results show that the impact is much more for rainfall over India, but it has no such relation with the rainfall over Odisha. It is also observed that there is a positive (negative relation of the IOD with the seasonal monsoon rainfall variability over Odisha (India. The correlation between the IAV of monsoon rainfall between the large scale and regional scale was found to be 0.46 with a phase synchronization of 63%. IAV on a sub-regional scale is also presented.

Hydrography of the Wadge bank - premonsoon and monsoon seasons

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

RamaRaju, V.S.; Rao, T.V.N.; RameshBabu, V.; Anto, A.F.

The hydrography of the Wadge Bank during premonsoon and monsoon seasons is presented. The thermocline slopes downward towards the central region. Upwelling is prominent in the entire region during monsoon and is observed only in the western...

The role of the Asian winter monsoon in the rapid propagation of abrupt climate changes during the last deglaciation

Science.gov (United States)

Chu, Guoqiang; Sun, Qing; Zhu, Qingzeng; Shan, Yabing; Shang, Wenyu; Ling, Yuan; Su, Youliang; Xie, Manman; Wang, Xishen; Liu, Jiaqi

2017-12-01

High-resolution temperature records spanning the last deglaciation from low latitudes are scarce; however, they are important for understanding the rapid propagation of abrupt climate events throughout the Northern Hemisphere and the tropics. Here, we present a branched GDGTs-based temperature reconstruction from the sediments of Maar Lake Huguangyan in tropical China. The record reveals that the mean temperature during the Oldest Dryas was 17.8 °C, which was followed by a two-step increase of 2-3 °C to the Bølling-Allerød, a decrease to 19.8 °C during the Younger Dryas, and a rapid warming at the onset of the Holocene. The Oldest Dryas was about 2 °C warmer than the Younger Dryas. The reconstructed temperature was weighted towards the wintertime since the lake is monomictic and the mixing process in winter supplies nutrients from the lake bottom to the entire water column, greatly promoting biological productivity. In addition, the winter-biased temperature changes observed in the study are more distinctive than the summer-biased temperature records from extra-tropical regions of East Asia. This implies that the temperature decreases during abrupt climatic events were mainly a winter phenomenon. Within the limits of the dating uncertainties, the broadly similar pattern of winter-weighted temperature change observed in both tropical Lake Huguangyan and in Greenland ice cores indicates the occurrence of tightly-coupled interactions between high latitude ice sheets and land areas in the tropics. We suggest that the winter monsoon (especially cold surges) could play an important role in the rapid transmission of the temperature signal from the Arctic to the tropics.

SPATIO-TEMPORAL ESTIMATION OF INTEGRATED WATER VAPOUR OVER THE MALAYSIAN PENINSULA DURING MONSOON SEASON

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S. Salihin

2017-10-01

Full Text Available This paper provides the precise information on spatial-temporal distribution of water vapour that was retrieved from Zenith Path Delay (ZPD which was estimated by Global Positioning System (GPS processing over the Malaysian Peninsular. A time series analysis of these ZPD and Integrated Water Vapor (IWV values was done to capture the characteristic on their seasonal variation during monsoon seasons. This study was found that the pattern and distribution of atmospheric water vapour over Malaysian Peninsular in whole four years periods were influenced by two inter-monsoon and two monsoon seasons which are First Inter-monsoon, Second Inter-monsoon, Southwest monsoon and Northeast monsoon.

Monsoon signatures in recent corals from the Laccadive Islands

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Naqvi, S.A.S.

X-radiographs of the coral (Porites sp.) collected from several atolls of Lakshadweep show alternate bands of low and high density, formed in non-monsoon period and monsoon period, respectively. The results reveal annual density variations as well...

Environmental controls on the speciation and distribution of mercury in surface sediments of a tropical estuary, India

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chakraborty, Parthasarathi; Babu, P.V. Raghunadh

2015-01-01

Highlights: • Physico-chemical parameters of water column control Hg speciation in sediments. • Sediments from the middle of the estuary were contaminated by Hg. • Concentrations of Hg were less during the monsoon and post monsoon period. • Salinity, pH of water column may change Hg speciation of the bottom sediments. • TOC in sediments control Hg partitioning in the system. - Abstract: Distribution and speciation of mercury (Hg) in the sediments from a tropical estuary (Godavari estuary) was influenced by the changing physico-chemical parameters of the overlying water column. The sediments from the upstream and downstream of the estuary were uncontaminated but the sediments from the middle of the estuary were contaminated by Hg. The concentrations of Hg became considerably less during the monsoon and post monsoon period. Total Hg concentrations and its speciation (at the middle of the estuary) were dependent on the salinity of the overlying water column. However, salinity had little or no effect on Hg association with organic phases in the sediments at downstream. Increasing pH of the overlying water column corresponded with an increase in the total Hg content in the sediments. Total organic carbon in the sediments played an important role in controlling Hg partitioning in the system. Uncomplexed Hg binding ligands were available in the sediments

Development of summer monsoon and onset of continuous rains over central west coast of India

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Varkey, M.J.

rains happening during the last phase of monsoon development as a consequence of and after (2-5 weeks) the establishment of monsoon circulation or monsoon front. Summer monsoon front, as the term 'monsoon' originally meant, is to be delineated from...

Variations of trace gases over the Bay of Bengal during the summer monsoon

Science.gov (United States)

Girach, I. A.; Ojha, Narendra; Nair, Prabha R.; Tiwari, Yogesh K.; Kumar, K. Ravi

2018-02-01

In situ measurements of near-surface ozone (O3), carbon monoxide (CO), and methane (CH4) were carried out over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) as a part of the Continental Tropical Convergence Zone (CTCZ) campaign during the summer monsoon season of 2009. O3, CO and CH4 mixing ratios varied in the ranges of 8-54 ppbv, 50-200 ppbv and 1.57-2.15 ppmv, respectively during 16 July-17 August 2009. The spatial distribution of mean tropospheric O3 from satellite retrievals is found to be similar to that in surface O3 observations, with higher levels over coastal and northern BoB as compared to central BoB. The comparison of in situ measurements with the Monitoring Atmospheric Composition & Climate (MACC) global reanalysis shows that MACC simulations reproduce the observations with small mean biases of 1.6 ppbv, -2.6 ppbv and 0.07 ppmv for O3, CO and CH4, respectively. The analysis of diurnal variation of O3 based on observations and the simulations from Weather Research and Forecasting coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) at a stationary point over the BoB did not show a net photochemical build up during daytime. Satellite retrievals show limitations in capturing CH4 variations as measured by in situ sample analysis highlighting the need of more shipborne in situ measurements of trace gases over this region during monsoon.

VHF radar observation of atmospheric winds, associated shears and C2n at a tropical location: interdependence and seasonal pattern

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A. R. Jain

Full Text Available The turbulence refractivity structure constant (C2n is an important parameter of the atmosphere. VHF radars have been used extensively for the measurements of C2n. Presently, most of such observations are from mid and high latitudes and only very limited observations are available for equatorial and tropical latitudes. Indian MST radar is an excellent tool for making high-resolution measurements of atmospheric winds, associated shears and turbulence refractivity structure constant (C2n. This radar is located at Gadanki (13.45° N, 79.18° E, a tropical station in India. The objective of this paper is to bring out the height structure of C2n for different seasons using the long series of data (September 1995 – August 1999 from Indian MST radar. An attempt is also made to understand such changes in the height structure of C2n in relation to background atmospheric parameters such as horizontal winds and associated shears. The height structure of C2n, during the summer monsoon and post-monsoon season, shows specific height features that are found to be related to Tropical Easterly Jet (TEJ winds. It is important to examine the nature of the radar back-scatterers and also to understand the causative mechanism of such scatterers. Aspect sensitivity of the received radar echo is examined for this purpose. It is observed that radar back-scatterers at the upper tropospheric and lower stratospheric heights are more anisotropic, with horizontal correlation length of 10–20 m, as compared to those observed at lower and middle tropospheric heights.Key words. Meteorology and atmospheric dynamics (climatology; tropical meteorology; turbulence

Modelling the Asian summer monsoon using CCAM

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nguyen, Kim Chi; McGregor, John L. [CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Aspendale, VIC (Australia)

2009-02-15

A ten-year mean (1989-1998) climatology of the Asian summer monsoon is studied using the CSIRO Conformal-Cubic Atmospheric Model (CCAM) to downscale NCEP reanalyses. The aim of the current study is to validate the model results against previous work on this topic, in order to identify model strengths and weaknesses in simulating the Asian summer monsoon. The model results are compared with available observations and are presented in two parts. In the first part, the mean summer rainfall, maximum and minimum temperatures and winds are compared with the observations. The second part focuses on validation of the monsoon onset. The model captures the mean characteristics such as the cross-equatorial flow of low-level winds over the Indian Ocean and near the Somali coast, rainfall patterns, onset indices, northward movements, active-break and revival periods. (orig.)

Foretelling the Monsoon

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

Relation between the continental TCZ and the TCZ over Equatorial Indian Ocean · Understanding year-to year (interannual) variation of the monsoon · Slide 40 · IMPACT OF EL NINO/LA NINA · Slide 42 · Variation of ISMR anomalies ( i.e. difference from the average value) normalized by std. deviation from 1979-2004.

Aerosol Meteorology of the Maritime Continent for the 2012 7SEAS Southwest Monsoon Intensive Study - Part 1: Regional-scale Phenomena

Science.gov (United States)

Reid, Jeffrey S.; Xian, Peng; Holben, Brent N.; Hyer, Edward J.; Reid, Elizabeth A.; Salinas, Santo V.; Zhang, Jianglong; Campbell, James R.; Chew, Boon Ning; Holz, Robert E.;

Variations of net ecosystem production due to seasonal precipitation differences in a tropical dry forest of northwest Mexico

Science.gov (United States)

Verduzco, Vivian S.; Garatuza-Payán, Jaime; Yépez, Enrico A.; Watts, Christopher J.; Rodríguez, Julio C.; Robles-Morua, Agustin; Vivoni, Enrique R.

2015-10-01

Due to their large extent and high primary productivity, tropical dry forests (TDF) are important contributors to atmospheric carbon exchanges in subtropical and tropical regions. In northwest Mexico, a bimodal precipitation regime that includes winter precipitation derived from Pacific storms and summer precipitation from the North American monsoon (NAM) couples water availability with ecosystem processes. We investigated the net ecosystem production of a TDF ecosystem using a 4.5 year record of water and carbon fluxes obtained from the eddy covariance method complemented with remotely sensed data. We identified a large CO2 efflux at the start of the summer season that is strongly related to the preceding winter precipitation and greenness. Since this CO2 efflux occurs prior to vegetation green-up, we infer that respiration is mainly due to decomposition of soil organic matter accumulated from the prior growing season. Overall, ecosystem respiration has an important effect on the net ecosystem production but can be overwhelmed by the strength of the primary productivity during the NAM. Precipitation characteristics during NAM have significant controls on sustaining carbon fixation in the TDF into the fall season. We identified that a threshold of ~350 to 400 mm of monsoon precipitation leads to a switch in the annual carbon balance in the TDF ecosystem from a net source (+102 g C/m2/yr) to a net sink (-249 g C/m2/yr). This monsoonal precipitation threshold is typically exceeded one out of every 2 years. The close coupling of winter and summer periods with respect to carbon fluxes suggests that the annual carbon balance is dependent on precipitation amounts in both seasons in TDF ecosystems.

Monsoon Rainfall and Landslides in Nepal

Science.gov (United States)

Dahal, R. K.; Hasegawa, S.; Bhandary, N. P.; Yatabe, R.

2009-12-01

A large number of human settlements on the Nepal Himalayas are situated either on old landslide mass or on landslide-prone areas. As a result, a great number of people are affected by large- and small-scale landslides all over the Himalayas especially during monsoon periods. In Nepal, only in the half monsoon period (June 10 to August 15), 70, 50 and 68 people were killed from landslides in 2007, 2008 and 2009, respectively. In this context, this paper highlights monsoon rainfall and their implications in the Nepal Himalaya. In Nepal, monsoon is major source of rainfall in summer and approximately 80% of the annual total rainfall occurs from June to September. The measured values of mean annual precipitation in Nepal range from a low of approximately 250 mm at area north of the Himalaya to many areas exceeding 6,000 mm. The mean annual rainfall varying between 1500 mm and 2500 mm predominate over most of the country. In Nepal, the daily distribution of precipitation during rainy season is also uneven. Sometime 10% of the total annual precipitation can occur in a single day. Similarly, 50% total annual rainfall also can occur within 10 days of monsoon. This type of uneven distribution plays an important role in triggering many landslides in Nepal. When spatial distribution of landslides was evaluated from record of more than 650 landslides, it is found that more landslides events were concentrated at central Nepal in the area of high mean annual rainfall. When monsoon rainfall and landslide relationship was taken into consideration, it was noticed that a considerable number of landslides were triggered in the Himalaya by continuous rainfall of 3 to 90 days. It has been noticed that continuous rainfall of few days (5 days or 7 days or 10 days) are usually responsible for landsliding in the Nepal Himalaya. Monsoon rains usually fall with interruptions of 2-3 days and are generally characterized by low intensity and long duration. Thus, there is a strong role of

Predicting summer monsoon of Bhutan based on SST and teleconnection indices

Science.gov (United States)

Dorji, Singay; Herath, Srikantha; Mishra, Binaya Kumar; Chophel, Ugyen

2018-02-01

The paper uses a statistical method of predicting summer monsoon over Bhutan using the ocean-atmospheric circulation variables of sea surface temperature (SST), mean sea-level pressure (MSLP), and selected teleconnection indices. The predictors are selected based on the correlation. They are the SST and MSLP of the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea and the MSLP of Bangladesh and northeast India. The Northern Hemisphere teleconnections of East Atlantic Pattern (EA), West Pacific Pattern (WP), Pacific/North American Pattern, and East Atlantic/West Russia Pattern (EA/WR). The rainfall station data are grouped into two regions with principal components analysis and Ward's hierarchical clustering algorithm. A support vector machine for regression model is proposed to predict the monsoon. The model shows improved skills over traditional linear regression. The model was able to predict the summer monsoon for the test data from 2011 to 2015 with a total monthly root mean squared error of 112 mm for region A and 33 mm for region B. Model could also forecast the 2016 monsoon of the South Asia Monsoon Outlook of World Meteorological Organization (WMO) for Bhutan. The reliance on agriculture and hydropower economy makes the prediction of summer monsoon highly valuable information for farmers and various other sectors. The proposed method can predict summer monsoon for operational forecasting.

Electron impact ionization technique on the study of terpenes and related species in French Guiana tropical forest

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lopes, Paula Regina Corain; Bustillos, Oscar W.V.; Guenther, Alex B.; Turnipseed, Andrew A.; Emmons, Louisa; Bonal, Damien; Burban, Benoit; Siebicke, Lukas; Serca, Dominique

2013-01-01

The electron impact ionization is, originally, a mass spectrometry ionization method and still the most widely used of all ionization methods.In this technique, a beam of electrons passes through the gas phase sample. An electron that collides with a neutral analyte molecule can knock off another electron, resulting in a positively charged ion. The fragmentation process dependent sup on many qualities including primary structure, electron energy and ion source temperature. This paper presents a study on the seasonal variation of isoprene and some other significant biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOC) such as α-pinene, β-pinene, limonene, e-βocimene and longifolene, measured at the Guyaflux Tower located in a wet tropical forest in French Guiana using the Relaxed Eddy Accumulation technique and analyzed by a mass spectrometer coupled to a gas chromatograph, a thermo desorption unit and a flame ionization detector (TD-GC-MS-FID). The results showed that isoprene was by far the biogenic volatile organic compound with the highest concentration and flux, followed by alpha-pinene. Previous limited studies in Amazonia and the Congo suggested that a higher concentration and flux rate of isoprene and alpha-pinene should be expected during the dry season with lower emissions during the wet season, which is in relative agreement with what was observed at this tropical forest site in French Guiana. The exceptions were observed in a long wet period in which the concentration of isoprene and alpha-pinene increased more than it was expected to, for this time of the year. (author)

Electron impact ionization technique on the study of terpenes and related species in French Guiana tropical forest

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lopes, Paula Regina Corain; Bustillos, Oscar W.V., E-mail: paulinhacorain@usp.br, E-mail: ovega@ipen.br [Instituto de Pesquisa Energeticas e Nucleares (IPEN/CNEN-SP), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil); Guenther, Alex B.; Turnipseed, Andrew A.; Emmons, Louisa, E-mail: guenther@ucar.edu [Biosphere Atmosphere Interaction Group, Atmosphere Chemistry Division of National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO (United States); Bonal, Damien; Burban, Benoit; Siebicke, Lukas, E-mail: lukas.siebicke@ecofog.gf [Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA-UMR EEF), Nancy (France); Serca, Dominique, E-mail: dominique.serca@aero.obs-mip.fr [Universite Paul Sabatier (UPS), Toulouse (France). Laboratoire d' Aerologie

2013-07-01

The electron impact ionization is, originally, a mass spectrometry ionization method and still the most widely used of all ionization methods.In this technique, a beam of electrons passes through the gas phase sample. An electron that collides with a neutral analyte molecule can knock off another electron, resulting in a positively charged ion. The fragmentation process dependent sup on many qualities including primary structure, electron energy and ion source temperature. This paper presents a study on the seasonal variation of isoprene and some other significant biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOC) such as α-pinene, β-pinene, limonene, e-βocimene and longifolene, measured at the Guyaflux Tower located in a wet tropical forest in French Guiana using the Relaxed Eddy Accumulation technique and analyzed by a mass spectrometer coupled to a gas chromatograph, a thermo desorption unit and a flame ionization detector (TD-GC-MS-FID). The results showed that isoprene was by far the biogenic volatile organic compound with the highest concentration and flux, followed by alpha-pinene. Previous limited studies in Amazonia and the Congo suggested that a higher concentration and flux rate of isoprene and alpha-pinene should be expected during the dry season with lower emissions during the wet season, which is in relative agreement with what was observed at this tropical forest site in French Guiana. The exceptions were observed in a long wet period in which the concentration of isoprene and alpha-pinene increased more than it was expected to, for this time of the year. (author)

Evaporation over the Arabian Sea during two contrasting monsoons

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

RameshKumar, M.R.; Sadhuram, Y.

monsoon rainfall. It is noticed that in general, the sea surface temperatures are higher in 1983 throughout the monsoon season than in 1979 in the Arabian Sea excepting western region. The mean rates of evaporation on a seasonal scale are found to be equal...

Future changes in Asian summer monsoon precipitation extremes as inferred from 20-km AGCM simulations

Science.gov (United States)

Lui, Yuk Sing; Tam, Chi-Yung; Lau, Ngar-Cheung

2018-04-01

This study examines the impacts of climate change on precipitation extremes in the Asian monsoon region during boreal summer, based on simulations from the 20-km Meteorological Research Institute atmospheric general circulation model. The model can capture the summertime monsoon rainfall, with characteristics similar to those from Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission and Asian Precipitation-Highly-Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation. By comparing the 2075-2099 with the present-day climate simulations, there is a robust increase of the mean rainfall in many locations due to a warmer climate. Over southeastern China, the Baiu rainband, Bay of Bengal and central India, extreme precipitation rates are also enhanced in the future, which can be inferred from increases of the 95th percentile of daily precipitation, the maximum accumulated precipitation in 5 consecutive days, the simple daily precipitation intensity index, and the scale parameter of the fitted gamma distribution. In these regions, with the exception of the Baiu rainband, most of these metrics give a fractional change of extreme rainfall per degree increase of the lower-tropospheric temperature of 5 to 8.5% K-1, roughly consistent with the Clausius-Clapeyron relation. However, over the Baiu area extreme precipitation change scales as 3.5% K-1 only. We have also stratified the rainfall data into those associated with tropical cyclones (TC) and those with other weather systems. The AGCM gives an increase of the accumulated TC rainfall over southeastern China, and a decrease in southern Japan in the future climate. The latter can be attributed to suppressed TC occurrence in southern Japan, whereas increased accumulated rainfall over southeastern China is due to more intense TC rain rate under global warming. Overall, non-TC weather systems are the main contributor to enhanced precipitation extremes in various locations. In the future, TC activities over southeastern China tend to further

Late Holocene anti-phase change in the East Asian summer and winter monsoons

Science.gov (United States)

Kang, Shugang; Wang, Xulong; Roberts, Helen M.; Duller, Geoff A. T.; Cheng, Peng; Lu, Yanchou; An, Zhisheng

2018-05-01

Changes in East Asian summer and winter monsoon intensity have played a pivotal role in the prosperity and decline of society in the past, and will be important for future climate scenarios. However, the phasing of changes in the intensity of East Asian summer and winter monsoons on millennial and centennial timescales during the Holocene is unclear, limiting our ability to understand the factors driving past and future changes in the monsoon system. Here, we present a high resolution (up to multidecadal) loess record for the last 3.3 ka from the southern Chinese Loess Plateau that clearly demonstrates the relationship between changes in the intensity of the East Asian summer and winter monsoons, particularly at multicentennial scales. At multimillennial scales, the East Asian summer monsoon shows a steady weakening, while the East Asian winter monsoon intensifies continuously. At multicentennial scales, a prominent ∼700-800 yr cycle in the East Asian summer and winter monsoon intensity is observed, and here too the two monsoons are anti-phase. We conclude that multimillennial changes are driven by Northern Hemisphere summer insolation, while multicentennial changes can be correlated with solar activity and changing strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation.

Predicting onset and withdrawal of Indian Summer Monsoon in 2016: results of Tipping elements approach

Science.gov (United States)

Surovyatkina, Elena; Stolbova, Veronika; Kurths, Jurgen

2017-04-01

The monsoon is the season of rain caused by a global seasonal reverse in winds direction and a change in pressure distribution. The Southwest winds bring summer monsoon to India. The economy of India is able to maintain its GDP in the wake of a good monsoon. However, if monsoon gets delayed by even two weeks, it can spell disaster because the high population depending on agriculture - 70% of its people directly related to farming. Agriculture, in turn, is dependent on the monsoon. Although the rainy season happens annually between June and September, the time of monsoon season's onset and withdrawal varies within a month from year to year. The important feature of the monsoon is that it starts and ends suddenly. Hence, despite enormous progress having been made in predicting monsoon since 1886, it remains a significant scientific challenge. To make predictions of monsoon timing in 2016, we applied our recently developed method [1]. Our approach is based on a teleconnection between the Eastern Ghats (EG) and North Pakistan (NP) - Tipping Elements of Indian Summer Monsoon. Both our predictions - for monsoon onset and withdrawal - were made for the Eastern Ghats region (EG-20N,80E) in the central part of India, while the Indian Meteorological Department forecasts monsoon over Kerala - a state at the southern tip of the Indian subcontinent. Our prediction for monsoon onset was published on May 6-th, 2016 [2]. We predicted the monsoon arrival to the EG on the 13th of June with a deviation of +/-4 days. In fact, monsoon onset was on June 17-th, that was confirmed by information from meteorological stations located around the EG-region. Hence, our prediction of monsoon onset (made 40 days in advance) was correct. We delivered the prediction of monsoon withdrawal on July 27, 2016 [3], announcing the monsoon withdrawal from the EG on October 5-th with a deviation of +/-5 days. The actual monsoon withdrawal started on October 10-th when the relative humidity in the region

South Asian Summer Monsoon Rainfall Variability and Trend: Its Links to Indo-Pacific SST Anomalies and Moist Processes

Science.gov (United States)

Prasanna, V.

2016-06-01

The warm (cold) phase of El Niño (La Niña) and its impact on all Indian Summer Monsoon rainfall (AISMR) relationship is explored for the past 100 years. The 103-year (1901-2003) data from the twentieth century reanalysis datasets (20CR) and other major reanalysis datasets for southwest monsoon season (JJAS) is utilized to find out the simultaneous influence of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-AISMR relationship. Two cases such as wet, dry monsoon years associated with ENSO(+) (El Niño), ENSO(-) (La Niña) and Non-ENSO (neutral) events have been discussed in detail using observed rainfall and three-dimensional 20CR dataset. The dry and wet years associated with ENSO and Non-ENSO periods show significant differences in the spatial pattern of rainfall associated with three-dimensional atmospheric composite, the 20CR dataset has captured the anomalies quite well. During wet (dry) years, the rainfall is high (low), i.e. 10 % above (below) average from the long-term mean and this wet or dry condition occur both during ENSO and Non-ENSO phases. The Non-ENSO year dry or wet composites are also focused in detail to understand, where do the anomalous winds come from unlike in the ENSO case. The moisture transport is coherent with the changes in the spatial pattern of AISMR and large-scale feature in the 20CR dataset. Recent 50-year trend (1951-2000) is also analyzed from various available observational and reanalysis datasets to see the influence of Indo-Pacific SST and moist processes on the South Asian summer monsoon rainfall trend. Apart from the Indo-Pacific sea surface temperatures (SST), the moisture convergence and moisture transport among India (IND), Equatorial Indian Ocean (IOC) and tropical western pacific (WNP) is also important in modifying the wet or dry cycles over India. The mutual interaction among IOC, WNP and IND in seasonal timescales is significant in modifying wet and dry cycles over the Indian region and the seasonal anomalies.

Influence of inland aerosol loading on the monsoon over Indian subcontinent

Science.gov (United States)

Satyanarayana, M.; Krishnakumar, V.; Mahadevan Pillai, V. P.; Radhakrishnan, S. R.; Raghunath, K.

2008-12-01

The monsoon water cycle is the lifeline to over 60% of the world's population. The study on the behavioral change of Indian monsoon due to aerosol loading will help for the better understanding of Indian Monsoon. Aerosol system influences the atmosphere in two ways; it affects directly the radiation budget and indirectly provides condensation nuclei required for the clouds. The precipitation of the clouds in the monsoon season depends on the microphysical properties of the clouds. The effect of aerosol on cirrus clouds is being looked into through this work as an effort to study the role of aerosol on Indian Monsoon. The microphysical properties of high altitude clouds were obtained from the ground based lidar experiments at a low latitude station in the Indian subcontinent. Measurements during the Indian monsoon period from the inland station National Atmospheric Research Laboratory (NARL) Gadanki (13.5_ N, 79.2_ E), Tirupati, India were used for the investigation. The depolarization characteristics of the cirrus clouds were measured and the correlation between the depolarization and the precipitation characteristics were studied. The results obtained over a period of one year from January 1998 to December 1998 were presented.

Prediction of Indian Summer-Monsoon Onset Variability: A Season in Advance.

Science.gov (United States)

Pradhan, Maheswar; Rao, A Suryachandra; Srivastava, Ankur; Dakate, Ashish; Salunke, Kiran; Shameera, K S

2017-10-27

Monsoon onset is an inherent transient phenomenon of Indian Summer Monsoon and it was never envisaged that this transience can be predicted at long lead times. Though onset is precipitous, its variability exhibits strong teleconnections with large scale forcing such as ENSO and IOD and hence may be predictable. Despite of the tremendous skill achieved by the state-of-the-art models in predicting such large scale processes, the prediction of monsoon onset variability by the models is still limited to just 2-3 weeks in advance. Using an objective definition of onset in a global coupled ocean-atmosphere model, it is shown that the skillful prediction of onset variability is feasible under seasonal prediction framework. The better representations/simulations of not only the large scale processes but also the synoptic and intraseasonal features during the evolution of monsoon onset are the comprehensions behind skillful simulation of monsoon onset variability. The changes observed in convection, tropospheric circulation and moisture availability prior to and after the onset are evidenced in model simulations, which resulted in high hit rate of early/delay in monsoon onset in the high resolution model.

Aerosol and rainfall variability over the Indian monsoon region: distributions, trends and coupling

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. Gautam

2009-09-01

Full Text Available Aerosol solar absorption over the Indian monsoon region has a potential role of modulating the monsoon circulation and rainfall distribution as suggested by recent studies based on model simulations. Prior to the onset of the monsoon, northern India is influenced by significant dust transport that constitutes the bulk of the regional aerosol loading over the Gangetic-Himalayan region. In this paper, a multi-sensor characterization of the increasing pre-monsoon aerosol loading over northern India, in terms of their spatial, temporal and vertical distribution is presented. Aerosol transport from the northwestern arid regions into the Indo-Gangetic Plains and over the foothills of the Himalayas is found to be vertically extended to elevated altitudes (up to 5 km as observed from the space-borne lidar measurements (CALIPSO. In relation with the enhanced pre-monsoon aerosol loading and the associated solar absorption effects on tropospheric temperature anomalies, this paper investigates the monsoon rainfall variability over India in recent past decades from an observational viewpoint. It is found that the early summer monsoon rainfall over India is on the rise since 1950s, as indicated by historical rainfall data, with over 20% increase for the period 1950–2004. This large sustained increase in the early summer rainfall is led by the observed strengthening of the pre-monsoon tropospheric land-sea thermal gradient over the Indian monsoon region as indicated by microwave satellite measurements (MSU of tropospheric temperatures from 1979–2007. Combined analysis of changes in tropospheric temperatures and summer monsoon rainfall in the past three decades, suggest a future possibility of an emerging rainfall pattern of a wetter monsoon over South Asia in early summer followed by a drier period.

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons over a tropical urban and a high altitude Himalayan Station in India: Temporal variation and source apportionment

Science.gov (United States)

Ray, Debajyoti; Chatterjee, Abhijit; Majumdar, Dipanjali; Ghosh, Sanjay K.; Raha, Sibaji

2017-11-01

The temporal variations and major sources of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) intrinsic to PM10 were investigated over a tropical urban atmosphere on the Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP) and for the first time over a high altitude urban atmosphere at eastern Himalaya in India. Samples were collected over Kolkata, a megacity and Darjeeling, a high altitude (2200 m asl) hill station in eastern India during the dry season (October 2015-May 2016). Fourteen PAHs were detected and quantified over Kolkata and Darjeeling during three consecutive seasons, viz., post-monsoon, winter and pre-monsoon. The total-PAHs concentrations were in the order of winter (78.08-146.71 ngm- 3) > post-monsoon (83.42-113.52 ngm- 3) > pre-monsoon (37.65-109.27 ngm- 3) at Kolkata, whereas post-monsoon (22.72-36.60 ngm- 3) > winter (8.52-28.43 ngm- 3) > pre-monsoon (5.45-13.34 ngm- 3) at Darjeeling. The observed seasonality of PAHs at Kolkata vis-a-vis Darjeeling has been explored in the light of anthropogenic activities, boundary layer dynamics and meteorological parameters such as temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and solar radiation. Negative correlation was observed between total-PAHs and temperature, wind speed and solar radiation over Kolkata and Darjeeling. The positive matrix factorization (PMF) model calculations suggested that coal (26%), petrol (24%) and diesel (17%) combustion, commercial and household kitchens (18%) and municipal solid waste incineration (15%) are the possible contributors to the PM10 associated PAHs over Kolkata whereas diesel (37%), commercial and household kitchens (23%), coal (21%) and petrol (20%) are the possible PM10 associated PAH sources over Darjeeling.

Did Aboriginal vegetation burning affect the Australian summer monsoon?

Science.gov (United States)

Balcerak, Ernie

2011-08-01

For thousands of years, Aboriginal Australians burned forests, creating grasslands. Some studies have suggested that in addition to changing the landscape, these burning practices also affected the timing and intensity of the Australian summer monsoon. Different vegetation types can alter evaporation, roughness, and surface reflectivity, leading to changes in the weather and climate. On the basis of an ensemble of experiments with a global climate model, Notaro et al. conducted a comprehensive evaluation of the effects of decreased vegetation cover on the summer monsoon in northern Australia. They found that although decreased vegetation cover would have had only minor effects during the height of the monsoon season, during the premonsoon season, burning-induced vegetation loss would have caused significant decreases in precipitation and increases in temperature. Thus, by burning forests, Aboriginals altered the local climate, effectively extending the dry season and delaying the start of the monsoon season. (Geophysical Research Letters, doi:10.1029/2011GL047774, 2011)

Validation of the HIRHAM-Simulated Indian Summer Monsoon Circulation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stefan Polanski

2010-01-01

Full Text Available The regional climate model HIRHAM has been applied over the Asian continent to simulate the Indian monsoon circulation under present-day conditions. The model is driven at the lateral and lower boundaries by European reanalysis (ERA40 data for the period from 1958 to 2001. Simulations with a horizontal resolution of 50 km are carried out to analyze the regional monsoon patterns. The focus in this paper is on the validation of the long-term summer monsoon climatology and its variability concerning circulation, temperature, and precipitation. Additionally, the monsoonal behavior in simulations for wet and dry years has been investigated and compared against several observational data sets. The results successfully reproduce the observations due to a realistic reproduction of topographic features. The simulated precipitation shows a better agreement with a high-resolution gridded precipitation data set over the central land areas of India and in the higher elevated Tibetan and Himalayan regions than ERA40.

Vegetation Response and Landscape Dynamics of Indian Summer Monsoon Variations during Holocene: An Eco-Geomorphological Appraisal of Tropical Evergreen Forest Subfossil Logs

Science.gov (United States)

Kumaran, Navnith K. P.; Padmalal, Damodaran; Nair, Madhavan K.; Limaye, Ruta B.; Guleria, Jaswant S.; Srivastava, Rashmi; Shukla, Anumeha

2014-01-01

The high rainfall and low sea level during Early Holocene had a significant impact on the development and sustenance of dense forest and swamp-marsh cover along the southwest coast of India. This heavy rainfall flooded the coastal plains, forest flourishing in the abandoned river channels and other low-lying areas in midland.The coastline and other areas in lowland of southwestern India supply sufficient evidence of tree trunks of wet evergreen forests getting buried during the Holocene period under varying thickness of clay, silty-clay and even in sand sequences. This preserved subfossil log assemblage forms an excellent proxy for eco-geomorphological and palaeoclimate appraisal reported hitherto from Indian subcontinent, and complements the available palynological data. The bulk of the subfossil logs and partially carbonized wood remains have yielded age prior to the Holocene transgression of 6.5 k yrs BP, suggesting therein that flooding due to heavy rainfall drowned the forest cover, even extending to parts of the present shelf. These preserved logs represent a unique palaeoenvironmental database as they contain observable cellular structure. Some of them can even be compared to modern analogues. As these woods belong to the Late Pleistocene and Holocene, they form a valuable source of climate data that alleviates the lack of contemporaneous meteorological records. These palaeoforests along with pollen proxies depict the warmer environment in this region, which is consistent with a Mid Holocene Thermal Maximum often referred to as Holocene Climate Optimum. Thus, the subfossil logs of tropical evergreen forests constitute new indices of Asian palaeomonsoon, while their occurrence and preservation are attributed to eco-geomorphology and hydrological regimes associated with the intensified Asian Summer Monsoon, as recorded elsewhere. PMID:24727672

Characteristics of cirrus clouds and tropical tropopause layer: Seasonal variation and long-term trends

Science.gov (United States)

Pandit, Amit Kumar; Gadhavi, Harish; Ratnam, M. Venkat; Jayaraman, A.; Raghunath, K.; Rao, S. Vijaya Bhaskara

2014-12-01

In the present study, characteristics of tropical cirrus clouds observed during 1998-2013 using a ground-based lidar located at Gadanki (13.5°N, 79.2°E), India, are presented. Altitude occurrences of cirrus clouds as well as its top and base heights are estimated using the advanced mathematical tool, wavelet covariance transform (WCT). The association of observed cirrus cloud properties with the characteristics of tropical tropopause layer (TTL) is investigated using co-located radiosonde measurements available since 2006. In general, cirrus clouds occurred for about 44% of the total lidar observation time (6246 h). The most probable altitude at which cirrus clouds occurr is 14.5 km. The occurrence of cirrus clouds exhibited a strong seasonal dependence with maximum occurrence during monsoon season (76%) and minimum occurrence during winter season (33%) which is consistent with the results reported recently using space-based lidar measurements. Most of the time, cirrus top was located within the TTL (between cold point and convective outflow level) while cirrus base occurred near the convective outflow level. The geometrical thickness of the cirrus cloud is found to be higher during monsoon season compared to winter and there exists a weak inverse relation with TTL thickness. During the observation period the percentage occurrence of cirrus clouds near the tropopause showed an 8.4% increase at 70% confidence level. In the last 16 years, top and base heights of cirrus cloud increased by 0.56 km and 0.41 km, respectively.

Gridded daily Indian monsoon rainfall for 14 seasons: Merged ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

Indian monsoon is an important component of earth's climate system. Daily rainfall data for longer period is vital to study components and processes related to Indian monsoon. Daily observed gridded rainfall data covering both land and adjoining oceanic regions are required for numerical model vali- dation and model ...

Observations of barrier layer formation in the Bay of Bengal during summer monsoon

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Vinayachandran, P.N.; Murty, V.S.N.; RameshBabu, V.

monsoon, J. Geophys. Res., 107(C12), 8018, doi:10.1029/2001JC000831, 2002. 1. Introduction [2] Several monsoon lows and depressions, that contrib- ute substantially to the summer monsoon rainfall of the Indian subcontinent, form over the Bay of Bengal... August–September, 1990,Murtyetal.[1996]foundthatthemixedlayerbasedon a temperature criterion is deeper than that using density. The regionwithrelativelyfreshwaterwithhighSSTappearstobe an excellent breeding ground for the formation of monsoon depressions...

Distribution and sources of particulate organic matter in the Indian monsoonal estuaries during monsoon

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Sarma, V.V.S.S.; Krishna, M.S.; Prasad, V.R.; Kumar, B.S.K.; Naidu, S.A.; Rao, G.D.; Viswanadham, R.; Sridevi, T.; Kumar, P.P.; Reddy, N.P.C.

The distribution and sources of particulate organic carbon (POC) and nitrogen (PN) in 27 Indian estuaries were examined during the monsoon using the content and isotopic composition of carbon and nitrogen. Higher phytoplankton biomass was noticed...

Community level perceptions of the monsoon onset, withdrawal and climatic trends in Bangladesh

Science.gov (United States)

Reeve, M. A.; Abu Syed, M. D.; Hossain, P. R.; Maainuddi, G.; Mamnun, N.

2012-04-01

A structured questionnaire study was carried out in 6 different regions in Bangladesh in order to give insight into how the different communities define the monsoon. The respondents were asked how they define the monsoon onset and withdrawal, and by how much these can vary from year to year. They were also asked about how they perceive changes in onset and withdrawal dates and total monsoonal rainfall during the past 20 years. Bangladesh is a developing country with a large proportion of the population living in rural areas and employed in the agricultural sector. It is foreseen that these communities will be most affected by changes in the climate. These groups were considered to be the main stakeholders when considering climate change, due to the direct influence the monsoon has on their livelihood and the food supply for the entire nation. Agricultural workers were therefore the main group targeted in this study. The main aim of the study was to create a framework for defining the monsoon in order to increase the usability of results in future impact-related studies. Refining definitions according to the perceptions of the main stakeholders helps to achieve this goal. Results show that rainfall is the main parameter used in defining the monsoon onset and withdrawal. This is possibly intuitive, however the monsoon onset was considered to be considerably earlier than previous scientific studies. This could be due to pre-monsoonal rainfall, however the respondents defined this type of rainfall separately to what they called the monsoon. The monsoon is considered to start earliest in the Sylhet region in northeast Bangladesh.

The monsoon system: Land–sea breeze or the ITCZ?

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

Sulochana Gadgil

2018-01-27

Jan 27, 2018 ... ocean contrast is one of the main drivers of the monsoon rainfall, in the 5th Assessment Report of the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change. (IPCC Climate Change 2013), the likely enhance- ment of monsoon rainfall has been attributed to increased land–sea contrast, and more abundant.

Impact of Climate Change on India's Monsoonal Climate: Present ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

Expected Future Changes in Rainfall and Temperature over India under IPCC SRES A1B GHG Scenarios · Expected Future Change in Monsoon Rainfall and Annual Surface Temp for 2020's, 2050's and 2080's · Likely Future Paradox of Monsoon-ENSO Links · High-Resolution Regional Climate Change Scenarios.

Recent predictors of Indian summer monsoon based on Indian and Pacific Ocean SST

Science.gov (United States)

Shahi, Namendra Kumar; Rai, Shailendra; Mishra, Nishant

2018-02-01

This study investigates the relationship between sea surface temperature (SST) of various geographical locations of Indian and Pacific Ocean with the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) to identify possible predictors of ISMR. We identified eight SST predictors based on spatial patterns of correlation coefficients between ISMR and SST of the regions mentioned above during the time domain 1982-2013. The five multiple linear regression (MLR) models have been developed by these predictors in various combinations. The stability and performance of these MLR models are verified using cross-validation method and other statistical methods. The skill of forecast to predict observed ISMR from these MLR models is found to be substantially better based on various statistical verification measures. It is observed that the MLR models constructed using the combination of SST indices in tropical and extra tropical Indian and Pacific is able to predict ISMR accurately for almost all the years during the time domain of our study. We tried to propose the physical mechanism of the teleconnection through regression analysis with wind over Indian subcontinent and the eight predictors and the results are in the conformity with correlation coefficient analysis. The robustness of these models is seen by predicting the ISMR during recent independent years of 2014-2017 and found the model 5 is able to predict ISMR accurately in these years also.

Seasonal and size-dependent variations in the phytoplankton growth and microzooplankton grazing in the southern South China Sea under the influence of the East Asian monsoon

Science.gov (United States)

Zhou, L.; Tan, Y.; Huang, L.; Hu, Z.; Ke, Z.

2015-11-01

To examine seasonal and size-dependent variations in the phytoplankton growth and microzooplankton grazing in oligotrophic tropical waters under the influence of seasonal reversing monsoon, dilution experiments were conducted during the summer of 2009 (21 May to 9 June) and winter 2010 (9 to 18 November) in the southern South China Sea (SSCS). The results showed that environmental variables, phytoplankton biomass, phytoplankton growth rate (μ), microzooplankton grazing rate (m), and correlationship (coupling) between the μ and m, rather than the microzooplankton grazing impact on phytoplankton (m/μ) significantly varied between the two seasons. Higher relative preference index (RPI) for the larger-sized (> 3 μm) phytoplankton than pico-phytoplankton (intermittent arrivals of the northeast winter monsoon could lead to the low μ and m, and the decoupling between the μ and m in the SSCS, through influencing nutrient supply to the surface water, and inducing surface seawater salinity decrease. The low m/μ (waters such as that of the SSCS.

Monsoon rainfall behaviour in recent times on local/regional scale in India

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Singh, Surender; Rao, V.U.M.; Singh, Diwan

2002-08-01

An attempt has been made here to investigate the local/regional monsoon rainfall behaviour in the meteorological sub-division no. 13 comprising the areas of Haryana, Delhi and Chandigarh in India. The monthly monsoon rainfall data of 30 years (1970-99) of different locations in the region were used for the investigation. All locations except Delhi received more rainfall in monsoon season during the decade (1990-99) showing general increasing trend in the rainfall behaviour in recent times. The mean monsoon rainfall at various locations ranged between 324.8 mm at Sirsa and 974.9 mm at Chandigarh. The major amount of monsoon rainfall occurred during the month of July and August in the entire region. Monthly mean rainfall ranged between 37.5 to 144.9 mm (June), 130.6 to 298.2 mm (July), 92.6 to 313.6 mm (August) and 44.0 to 149.4mm (September) at different locations. All the locations in the region exhibited overall increasing trend in monsoon rainfall over the period under study. All locations in the region received their lowest monsoon rainfall in the year 1987 which was a drought year and the season's rainfall ranged between 56.1 mm (Sirsa) and 290.0 mm (Delhi) during this year. Many of the locations observed clusters of fluctuations in their respective monsoon rainfall. The statistical summaries of historical data series (1970-99) gave rainfall information on various time scale. Such information acquires value through its influence on the decision making of the ultimate users. (author)

Decadal scale droughts over northwestern Thailand over the past 448 years: links to the tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean sectors

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Buckley, Brendan M. [Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Tree-Ring Laboratory, Palisades, NY (United States); Palakit, Kritsadapan; Duangsathaporn, Khwanchai [Kasetsart University Faculty of Forestry, Laboratory of Tropical Dendrochronology, Bangkok (Thailand); Sanguantham, Prasong; Prasomsin, Patsi [Kasetsart University Faculty of Forestry, Department of Forest Management, Bangkok (Thailand)

2007-07-15

A 448-year teak chronology from northwestern Thailand is used to assess past changes in the strength of the summer monsoon. The chronology is based on 30 living trees that extend from 1604 to 2005, and a 47-stump chronology that spans from 1558 to 1903. We used methods of cross dating and chronology building that address problems specifically found in teak. The result is a robust chronology with strong signal strength back to 1600 ad, and with variability retained at the multi-decadal scale. Variability in annual growth in teak from this area is dependent on rainfall and soil moisture availability at both the beginning and end of the monsoon season as confirmed by comparisons with temperature, rainfall and PDSI data. These correlation analyses confirm that our record is a proxy for summer monsoon strength and/or duration, and highlight the importance of soil moisture availability in the seasons of transition. The chronology reveals two prominent periods of decadal-scale drought in the early and mid 1700s that correspond to persistently warm sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Pacific as derived from Galapagos Island coral records. Speleothem data from central India also indicate protracted periods of drought for the 1700s. While these broad-scale eighteenth-century persistent droughts may be related to protracted El Nino-like conditions in the tropical Pacific, regional climate forcing over the Indian Ocean and western Pacific sectors appears to be a strong contributor as well. Spectral analyses reveal power in the ENSO range of variability from 2.2 to 4 years, and at the multi-decadal scale at 48.5 years. (orig.)

An Intrathermocline Eddy and a tropical cyclone in the Bay of Bengal

Science.gov (United States)

Gordon, Arnold L.; Shroyer, Emily; Murty, V. S. N.

2017-04-01

The Bay of Bengal, subjected to monsoonal forcing and tropical cyclones, displays a complex field of ocean eddies. On 5 December 2013 a sub-surface vortex or Intrathermocline Eddy (ITE) composed of water characteristic of the Andaman Sea was observed within the thermocline of the western Bay of Bengal. We propose that the ITE was the product of Tropical Cyclone Lehar interaction on 27 November 2013 with a westward propagating surface eddy from the eastern Bay of Bengal. While Lehar’s interaction with the ocean initially removes heat from the upper layers of the eddy, air-sea flux is limited as the deeper portions of the eddy was subducted into the stratified thermocline, inhibiting further interaction with the atmosphere. The ITE core from 30 to 150 m is thus isolated from local air-sea fluxes by strong stratification at the mixed layer base, and its periphery is stable to shear instability, suggestive of longevity and the ability to carry water far distances with minimal modification.

Impact of spectral nudging on the downscaling of tropical cyclones in regional climate simulations

Science.gov (United States)

Choi, Suk-Jin; Lee, Dong-Kyou

2016-06-01

This study investigated the simulations of three months of seasonal tropical cyclone (TC) activity over the western North Pacific using the Advanced Research WRF Model. In the control experiment (CTL), the TC frequency was considerably overestimated. Additionally, the tracks of some TCs tended to have larger radii of curvature and were shifted eastward. The large-scale environments of westerly monsoon flows and subtropical Pacific highs were unreasonably simulated. The overestimated frequency of TC formation was attributed to a strengthened westerly wind field in the southern quadrants of the TC center. In comparison with the experiment with the spectral nudging method, the strengthened wind speed was mainly modulated by large-scale flow that was greater than approximately 1000 km in the model domain. The spurious formation and undesirable tracks of TCs in the CTL were considerably improved by reproducing realistic large-scale atmospheric monsoon circulation with substantial adjustment between large-scale flow in the model domain and large-scale boundary forcing modified by the spectral nudging method. The realistic monsoon circulation took a vital role in simulating realistic TCs. It revealed that, in the downscaling from large-scale fields for regional climate simulations, scale interaction between model-generated regional features and forced large-scale fields should be considered, and spectral nudging is a desirable method in the downscaling method.

Fluvial hydrology and geomorphology of Monsoon-dominated Indian rivers

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vishwas S. Kale

2005-11-01

Full Text Available The Indian rivers are dominantly monsoon rainfed. As a result, their regime characteristics are dictated by the spatio-temporal variations in the monsoon rainfall. Although the rivers carry out most of the geomorphic work during 4-5 months of the monsoon season, the nature and magnitude of response to variations in the discharge and sediment load varies with the basin size and relief characteristics. Large monsoon floods play a role of great importance on all the rivers. This paper describes the hydrological and geomorphological characteristics of the two major fluvial systems of the Indian region, namely the Himalayan fluvial system and the Peninsular fluvial system. Large number of studies published so far indicate that there are noteworthy differences between the two river systems, with respect to river hydrology, channel morphology, sediment load and behaviour. The nature of alterations in the fluvial system due to increased human interference is also briefly mentioned. This short review demonstrates that there is immense variety of rivers in India. This makes India one of the best places to study rivers and their forms and processes.

8000-year monsoonal record from Himalaya revealing reinforcement of tropical and global climate systems since mid-Holocene.

Science.gov (United States)

Srivastava, Pradeep; Agnihotri, Rajesh; Sharma, Deepti; Meena, Narendra; Sundriyal, Y P; Saxena, Anju; Bhushan, Ravi; Sawlani, R; Banerji, Upasana S; Sharma, C; Bisht, P; Rana, N; Jayangondaperumal, R

2017-11-06

We provide the first continuous Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) climate record for the higher Himalayas (Kedarnath, India) by analyzing a 14 C-dated peat sequence covering the last ~8000 years, with ~50 years temporal resolution. The ISM variability inferred using various proxies reveal striking similarity with the Greenland ice core (GISP2) temperature record and rapid denitrification changes recorded in the sediments off Peru. The Kedarnath record provides compelling evidence for a reorganization of the global climate system taking place at ~5.5 ka BP possibly after sea level stabilization and the advent of inter-annual climate variability governed by the modern ENSO phenomenon. The ISM record also captures warm-wet and cold-dry conditions during the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age, respectively.

Changing circulation structure and precipitation characteristics in Asian monsoon regions: greenhouse warming vs. aerosol effects

Science.gov (United States)

Lau, William K. M.; Kim, Kyu-Myong; Ruby Leung, L.

2017-12-01

Using model outputs from CMIP5 historical integrations, we have investigated the relative roles of anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) and aerosols in changing the characteristics of the large-scale circulation and rainfall in Asian summer monsoon (ASM) regions. Under GHG warming, a strong positive trend in low-level moist static energy (MSE) is found over ASM regions, associated with increasing large-scale land-sea thermal contrast from 1870s to present. During the same period, a mid-tropospheric convective barrier (MCB) due to widespread reduction in relative humidity in the mid- and lower troposphere is strengthening over the ASM regions, in conjunction with expanding areas of anomalous subsidence associated with the Deep Tropical Squeeze (Lau and Kim in Proc Natl Acad Sci 12:3630-3635, 2015). The opposing effects of MSE and MCB lead to enhanced total ASM rainfall, but only a partial strengthening of the southern portion of the monsoon meridional circulation, coupled to anomalous multi-cellular overturning motions over ASM land. Including anthropogenic aerosol emissions strongly masks MSE but enhances MCB via increased stability in the lower troposphere, resulting in an overall weakened ASM circulation with suppressed rainfall. Analyses of rainfall characteristics indicate that under GHG, overall precipitation efficiency over the ASM region is reduced, manifesting in less moderate but more extreme heavy rain events. Under combined effects of GHG and aerosols, precipitation efficiency is unchanged, with more moderate, but less extreme rainfall.

Recent trends in pre-monsoon daily temperature extremes over India

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

e-mail: kotha@tropmet.res.in. Extreme climate and weather events are increasingly being recognized as key aspects of climate change. Pre-monsoon season ... change in day-to-day magnitude of fluctuations of pre-monsoon maximum and minimum tempera- tures. ... by high exceedence counts during drought periods.

Heavy Rainfall Associated with a Monsoon Depression in South China: Structure Analysis

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

JIANG Jianying; JIANG Jixi; BU Yalin; LIU Nianqing

2008-01-01

A heavy rainfall associated with the deepening of a monsoon depression happened in the summer of 2005.This process was first diagnostically analyzed and the 3D structure of the monsoon depression was discussed,then this structure was compared with those of the monsoon depression in South Asia and the low vortex in the Meiyu front. The results showed that the heavy rainfall directly resulted from a monsoon depression in South China, and the large-scale environment provided a favorable background for the deepening of the monsoon depression. The 3D structure of the monsoon depression was as follows. In the horizontal direction,there existed a convective cloud band to the south of the monsoon depression, which lay in a convectively instable area, with a relatively strong ascending motion in the mid and low levels of the troposphere, and the ascending motion matched well with a moist tongue, a convergence area, and a band of positive vorticity in the mid and low levels of the troposphere. In the vertical direction, the depression had an obviously cyclonic circulation in the mid and low levels of the troposphere, but no circulation from above 300 hPa. The monsoon depression corresponded to convergence and positive vorticity in the low levels, but to divergence and negative vortieity in the upper levels. The upward draft of the depression could reach the upper levels of the troposphere in the west of the depression, while the descending motion lay in the east. There was a low-level jet to the south of the depression, while the upper-level jet was not obvious. The depression was vertically warm in the upper levels and cold in the low levels, and the axis of the depression tilted southeastward with height, whose characteristics were different not only from the monsoon depression in South Asia but also from the low vortex in the Meiyu front.

An Assessment of Monsoon Triggered Landslides in Western Nepal

Science.gov (United States)

Sudan Acharya, Madhu

2010-05-01

Due to heavy monsoon rain, rugged topography and very young mountains, frequent slope failures and soil erosion are very common in Nepal but in most of cases the natural slopes are disturbed by men to construct a road through it and the situation further aggravated by the Monsoon rain. Summer usually tests the disaster response capacity of Nepal, when the monsoons trigger water induced disasters. This year Nepal's Western regions were most severely affected by floods and landslides. Every year, sadly, it is the same story of mostly poor people living in remote villages succumbing to landslides and flooding and those who survive facing hardships brought on by the disaster. The tail end of the monsoon in October has triggered flood and landslides in Nepal which affected a total of 14 districts in the mid and far-west regions, of which Kailali, Bardiya, Banke, Dadeldhura, Accham and Kanchapur district are most affected. The affected areas are geographically scattered and remote, and are therefore difficult to access. In this year (2009), flood and landslides have claimed 62 lives, affecting more than 152,000 individuals from 27,000 families. More than 4,000 families are displaced and are taking shelter in schools, open space and forest areas with no protection from the external elements. In the above context the prevention and mitigation measures for landslides is a great challenge for Nepal. Nepal has been investing its huge amount of resources to stabilize landslides and roadside slope failures, still then it has become unmanageable during Monsoon time. Considering the above facts, an assessment of landslides which were occurred during the Monsoon (July-October 2009), along Khodpe - Jhota - Chainpur road in far western region of Nepal has been carried out based on the field observation of various landslides. The paper presents the causes and mechanisms of failures of different landslides which are mostly triggered by Monsoon rain. It also suggests some low cost

Deep learning for predicting the monsoon over the homogeneous regions of India

Science.gov (United States)

Saha, Moumita; Mitra, Pabitra; Nanjundiah, Ravi S.

2017-06-01

Indian monsoon varies in its nature over the geographical regions. Predicting the rainfall not just at the national level, but at the regional level is an important task. In this article, we used a deep neural network, namely, the stacked autoencoder to automatically identify climatic factors that are capable of predicting the rainfall over the homogeneous regions of India. An ensemble regression tree model is used for monsoon prediction using the identified climatic predictors. The proposed model provides forecast of the monsoon at a long lead time which supports the government to implement appropriate policies for the economic growth of the country. The monsoon of the central, north-east, north-west, and south-peninsular India regions are predicted with errors of 4.1%, 5.1%, 5.5%, and 6.4%, respectively. The identified predictors show high skill in predicting the regional monsoon having high variability. The proposed model is observed to be competitive with the state-of-the-art prediction models.

20th century intraseasonal Asian monsoon dynamics viewed from Isomap

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Hannachi

2013-10-01

Full Text Available The Asian summer monsoon is a high-dimensional and highly nonlinear phenomenon involving considerable moisture transport towards land from the ocean, and is critical for the whole region. We have used daily ECMWF reanalysis (ERA-40 sea-level pressure (SLP anomalies on the seasonal cycle, over the region 50–145° E, 20° S–35° N, to study the nonlinearity of the Asian monsoon using Isomap. We have focused on the two-dimensional embedding of the SLP anomalies for ease of interpretation. Unlike the unimodality obtained from tests performed in empirical orthogonal function space, the probability density function, within the two-dimensional Isomap space, turns out to be bimodal. But a clustering procedure applied to the SLP data reveals support for three clusters, which are identified using a three-component bivariate Gaussian mixture model. The modes are found to appear similar to active and break phases of the monsoon over South Asia in addition to a third phase, which shows active conditions over the western North Pacific. Using the low-level wind field anomalies, the active phase over South Asia is found to be characterised by a strengthening and an eastward extension of the Somali jet. However during the break phase, the Somali jet is weakened near southern India, while the monsoon trough in northern India also weakens. Interpretation is aided using the APHRODITE gridded land precipitation product for monsoon Asia. The effect of large-scale seasonal mean monsoon and lower boundary forcing, in the form of ENSO, is also investigated and discussed. The outcome here is that ENSO is shown to perturb the intraseasonal regimes, in agreement with conceptual ideas.

Monsoon effect simulation on typhoon rainfall potential - Typhoon Morakot (2009

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yi-Ling Chang

2017-01-01

Full Text Available A record breaking extreme precipitation event produced 3000 mm day-1 of accumulated rainfall over southern Taiwan in August 2009. The interactions between Typhoon Morakot and the prevailing southwesterly (SW monsoon are the primary mechanism for this heavy precipitation during 5 - 13 August 2009. This extreme precipitation could be produced by the abundant moisture from the SW monsoon associated with the interaction between typhoon and monsoon wind fields, leading to severe property damage. The accurate mapping of extreme precipitation caused from the interaction between a monsoon and typhoon is critical for early warning in Taiwan. This study simulates the heavy rainfall event is based on the Weather Research and Forecast system model (WRF using the three nested domain configuration. Using data assimilation with a virtual meteorological field using the 3D-Var system, such as wind field to alter the SW monsoon strength in the initial condition, the impacts of intensified convergence and water vapor content on the accumulated rainfall are analyzed to quantize the intensification of typhoon rainfall potential. The results showed a positive correlation between the enhanced precipitation and the intensity of low-level wind speed convergence as well as water vapor content. For the Typhoon Morakot case study the rainfall for could attain approximately 2 × 104 mm at 6 hours interval in the southern Taiwan area when 10 × 10-6 s-1 convergence intensified at 850 hPa level around the southern part of the Taiwan Strait. These results suggest that low-level wind speed, convergence and water vapor content play key roles in the typhoon rainfall potential coupled with the SW monsoon.

Mapping forests in monsoon Asia with ALOS PALSAR 50-m mosaic images and MODIS imagery in 2010.

Science.gov (United States)

Qin, Yuanwei; Xiao, Xiangming; Dong, Jinwei; Zhang, Geli; Roy, Partha Sarathi; Joshi, Pawan Kumar; Gilani, Hammad; Murthy, Manchiraju Sri Ramachandra; Jin, Cui; Wang, Jie; Zhang, Yao; Chen, Bangqian; Menarguez, Michael Angelo; Biradar, Chandrashekhar M; Bajgain, Rajen; Li, Xiangping; Dai, Shengqi; Hou, Ying; Xin, Fengfei; Moore, Berrien

2016-02-11

Extensive forest changes have occurred in monsoon Asia, substantially affecting climate, carbon cycle and biodiversity. Accurate forest cover maps at fine spatial resolutions are required to qualify and quantify these effects. In this study, an algorithm was developed to map forests in 2010, with the use of structure and biomass information from the Advanced Land Observation System (ALOS) Phased Array L-band Synthetic Aperture Radar (PALSAR) mosaic dataset and the phenological information from MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MOD13Q1 and MOD09A1) products. Our forest map (PALSARMOD50 m F/NF) was assessed through randomly selected ground truth samples from high spatial resolution images and had an overall accuracy of 95%. Total area of forests in monsoon Asia in 2010 was estimated to be ~6.3 × 10(6 )km(2). The distribution of evergreen and deciduous forests agreed reasonably well with the median Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) in winter. PALSARMOD50 m F/NF map showed good spatial and areal agreements with selected forest maps generated by the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA F/NF), European Space Agency (ESA F/NF), Boston University (MCD12Q1 F/NF), Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO FRA), and University of Maryland (Landsat forests), but relatively large differences and uncertainties in tropical forests and evergreen and deciduous forests.

Micro-Physical characterisation of Convective & Stratiform Rainfall at Tropics

Science.gov (United States)

Sreekanth, T. S.

Large Micro-Physical characterisation of Convective & Stratiform Rainfall at Tropics begin{center} begin{center} Sreekanth T S*, Suby Symon*, G. Mohan Kumar (1) , and V Sasi Kumar (2) *Centre for Earth Science Studies, Akkulam, Thiruvananthapuram (1) D-330, Swathi Nagar, West Fort, Thiruvananthapuram 695023 (2) 32. NCC Nagar, Peroorkada, Thiruvananthapuram ABSTRACT Micro-physical parameters of rainfall such as rain drop size & fall speed distribution, mass weighted mean diameter, Total no. of rain drops, Normalisation parameters for rain intensity, maximum & minimum drop diameter from different rain intensity ranges, from both stratiform and convective rain events were analysed. Convective -Stratiform classification was done by the method followed by Testud et al (2001) and as an additional information electrical behaviour of clouds from Atmospheric Electric Field Mill was also used. Events which cannot be included in both types are termed as 'mixed precipitation' and identified separately. For the three years 2011, 2012 & 2013, rain events from both convective & stratiform origin are identified from three seasons viz Pre-Monsoon (March-May), Monsoon (June-September) and Post-Monsoon (October-December). Micro-physical characterisation was done for each rain events and analysed. Ground based and radar observations were made and classification of stratiform and convective rainfall was done by the method followed by Testud et al (2001). Radar bright band and non bright band analysis was done for confimation of stratifom and convective rain respectievely. Atmospheric electric field data from electric field mill is also used for confirmation of convection during convective events. Statistical analyses revealed that the standard deviation of rain drop size in higher rain rates are higher than in lower rain rates. Normalised drop size distribution is ploted for selected events from both forms. Inter relations between various precipitation parameters were analysed in three

Regional trends in early-monsoon rainfall over Vietnam and CCSM4 attribution

Science.gov (United States)

Li, R.; Wang, S. S.-Y.; Gillies, R. R.; Buckley, B. M.; Yoon, J.-H.; Cho, C.

2018-04-01

The analysis of precipitation trends for Vietnam revealed that early-monsoon precipitation has increased over the past three decades but to varying degrees over the northern, central and southern portions of the country. Upon investigation, it was found that the change in early-monsoon precipitation is associated with changes in the low-level cyclonic airflow over the South China Sea and Indochina that is embedded in the large-scale atmospheric circulation associated with a "La Niña-like" anomalous sea surface temperature pattern with warming in the western Pacific and Indian Oceans and cooling in the eastern Pacific. The Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4) was subsequently used for an attribution analysis. Over northern Vietnam an early-monsoon increase in precipitation is attributed to changes in both greenhouse gases and natural forcing. For central Vietnam, the observed increase in early-monsoon precipitation is reproduced by the simulation forced with greenhouse gases. However, over southern Vietnam the early-monsoon precipitation increase is less definitive where aerosols were seen to be preponderant but natural forcing through the role of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation may well be a factor that is not resolved by CCSM4. Increased early-monsoonal precipitation over the coastal lowland and deltas has the potential to amplify economic and human losses.

Efficient transport of tropospheric aerosol into the stratosphere via the Asian summer monsoon anticyclone

Science.gov (United States)

Yu, Pengfei; Rosenlof, Karen H.; Liu, Shang; Telg, Hagen; Thornberry, Troy D.; Rollins, Andrew W.; Portmann, Robert W.; Bai, Zhixuan; Ray, Eric A.; Duan, Yunjun; Pan, Laura L.; Toon, Owen B.; Bian, Jianchun; Gao, Ru-Shan

2017-07-01

An enhanced aerosol layer near the tropopause over Asia during the June-September period of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) was recently identified using satellite observations. Its sources and climate impact are presently not well-characterized. To improve understanding of this phenomenon, we made in situ aerosol measurements during summer 2015 from Kunming, China, then followed with a modeling study to assess the global significance. The in situ measurements revealed a robust enhancement in aerosol concentration that extended up to 2 km above the tropopause. A climate model simulation demonstrates that the abundant anthropogenic aerosol precursor emissions from Asia coupled with rapid vertical transport associated with monsoon convection leads to significant particle formation in the upper troposphere within the ASM anticyclone. These particles subsequently spread throughout the entire Northern Hemispheric (NH) lower stratosphere and contribute significantly (˜15%) to the NH stratospheric column aerosol surface area on an annual basis. This contribution is comparable to that from the sum of small volcanic eruptions in the period between 2000 and 2015. Although the ASM contribution is smaller than that from tropical upwelling (˜35%), we find that this region is about three times as efficient per unit area and time in populating the NH stratosphere with aerosol. With a substantial amount of organic and sulfur emissions in Asia, the ASM anticyclone serves as an efficient smokestack venting aerosols to the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. As economic growth continues in Asia, the relative importance of Asian emissions to stratospheric aerosol is likely to increase.

Air pollution episodes associated with East Asian winter monsoons

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hien, P.D., E-mail: pdhien@gmail.com [Vietnam Atomic Energy Agency, 59 Ly Thuong Kiet str. Hanoi (Viet Nam); Loc, P.D.; Dao, N.V. [National Hydro-Meteorological Center, 62-A2 Nguyen Chi Thanh str. Hanoi (Viet Nam)

2011-11-01

A dozen multi-day pollution episodes occur from October to February in Hanoi, Vietnam due to prolonged anticyclonic conditions established after the northeast monsoon surges (cold surges). These winter pollution episodes (WPEs) account for most of the 24-h PM{sub 10} exceedances and the highest concentrations of gaseous pollutants in Hanoi. In this study, WPEs were investigated using continuous air quality monitoring data and information on upper-air soundings and air mass trajectories. The 24-h pollutant concentrations are lowest during cold surges; concurrently rise thereafter reaching the highest levels toward the middle of a monsoon cycle, then decline ahead of the next cold surge. Each monsoon cycle usually proceeds through a dry phase and a humid phase as Asiatic continental cold air arrives in Hanoi through inland China then via the East China Sea. WPEs are associated with nighttime radiation temperature inversions (NRTIs) in the dry phase and subsidence temperature inversions (STIs) in the humid phase. In NRTI periods, the rush hour pollution peak is more pronounced in the evening than in the morning and the pollution level is about two times higher at night than in daytime. In STI periods, broad morning and evening traffic peaks are observed and pollution is as high at night as in daytime. The close association between pollution and winter monsoon meteorology found in this study for the winter 2003-04 may serve as a basis for advance warning of WPEs and for forecasting the 24-h pollutant concentrations. - Highlights: {yields} Dozen pollution episodes from Oct. to Feb in Hanoi associated with anticyclones after monsoon surges. {yields} 24-h concentrations of PM{sub 10}, SO{sub 2}, NO{sub 2}, CO rise after surge and decline ahead of the next. {yields} Episodes caused by nighttime radiation and subsidence inversions in dry and humid monsoon phases. {yields} Distinct diurnal variations of pollutant concentrations observed in the two periods. {yields} Close

Species delimitation in the Gehyra nana (Squamata: Gekkonidae) complex: cryptic and divergent morphological evolution in the Australian Monsoonal Tropics, with the description of four new species.

Science.gov (United States)

Doughty, Paul; Bourke, Gayleen; Tedeschi, Leonardo G; Pratt, Renae C; Oliver, Paul M; Palmer, Russell A; Moritz, Craig

2018-04-04

Recent advances in molecular genetic techniques and increased fine scale sampling in the Australian Monsoonal Tropics (AMT) have provided new impetus to reassess species boundaries in the Gehyra nana species complex, a clade of small-bodied, saxicolous geckos which are widely distributed across northern Australia. A recent phylogenomic analysis revealed eight deeply divergent lineages that occur as a series of overlapping distributions across the AMT and which, as a whole, are paraphyletic with four previously described species. Several of these lineages currently included in G. nana are phenotypically distinct, while others are highly conservative morphologically. Here we use an integrated approach to explore species delimitation in this complex. We redefine G. nana as a widespread taxon with complex genetic structure across the Kimberley of Western Australia and Top End of the Northern Territory, including a lineage with mtDNA introgressed from the larger-bodied G. multiporosa. We describe four new species with more restricted distributions within the G. nana complex. The new species are phylogenetically divergent and morphologically diagnosable, and include the relatively cryptic G. paranana sp. nov. from the western Northern Territory, the large-bodied G. pseudopunctata sp. nov. from the southern Kimberley ranges, G. granulum sp. nov., a small-bodied form with granules on the proximal lamellae from the north-west and southern Kimberley ranges and the small-bodied G. pluraporosa sp. nov. restricted to the northern Kimberley. Our revision largely stabilises the taxonomy of the G. nana complex, although further analyses of species limits among the remaining mostly parapatric lineages of G. nana sensu stricto are warranted.

Convective sources of trajectories traversing the tropical tropopause layer

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A.-S. Tissier

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Transit properties across the tropical tropopause layer are studied using extensive forward and backward Lagrangian diabatic trajectories between cloud tops and the reference surface 380 K. After dividing the tropical domain into 11 subregions according to the distribution of land and convection, we estimate the contribution of each region to the upward mass flux across the 380 K surface and to the vertical distribution of convective sources and transit times over the period 2005–2008. The good agreement between forward and backward statistics is the basis of the results presented here. It is found that about 85 % of the tropical parcels at 380 K originate from convective sources throughout the year. From November to April, the sources are dominated by the warm pool which accounts for up to 70 % of the upward flux. During boreal summer, the Asian monsoon region is the largest contributor with similar contributions from the maritime and continental parts of the region; however, the vertical distributions and transit times associated with these two subregions are very different. Convective sources are generally higher over the continental part of the Asian monsoon region, with shorter transit times. We estimate the monthly averaged upward mass flux on the 380 K surface and show that the contribution from convective outflow accounts for 80 % on average and explains most of its seasonal variations. The largest contributor to the convective flux is the South Asian Pacific region (warm pool at 39 % throughout the year followed by oceanic regions surrounding continental Asia at 18 % and Africa at 10.8 %. Continental Asian lowlands account for 8 %. The Tibetan Plateau is a minor overall contributor (0.8 %, but transport from convective sources in this region is very efficient due to its central location beneath the Asian upper level anticyclone. The core results are robust to uncertainties in data and methods, but the vertical source

Modelling the impacts of deforestation on monsoon rainfall in West Africa

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Abiodun, B J; Pal, J S; Afiesimama, E A; Gutowski, W J; Adedoyin, A

2010-01-01

The study found that deforestation causes more monsoon moisture to be retained in the mid-troposphere, thereby reducing the northward transport of moisture needed for rainfall over West Africa. Hence, deforestation has dynamical impacts on the West African monsoon and rainfall.

Coastal rainforest boundary dynamics during the late Holocene in monsoonal Australia: evidence from radiocarbon dates of abandoned nests of Orange-footed Scrubfowl

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bowman, D M.J.S.; Panton, W J [Parks and Wildlife Commission of the Northern Territory, Darwin, NT (Australia); Head, J [Australian National Univ, Canberra, ACT (Australia). Quaternary Dating Research Centre

1998-12-31

The late Holocene history of monsoon rainforest retreat was explored by radiocarbon dating abandoned Orange-footed Scrubfowl (Megapodius reinwardt Gaimard) nests in coastal savannas in the Northern Territory of Australia. Previous work has demonstrated that in savanna environments this rainforest bird can not build nor maintain the large heaps of soil and leaf litter that it uses for nests. Excavations of two earthen mounds in a savanna habitat verified that they were abandoned Scrubfowl nests, and not Aboriginal middens, given their lack of stratigraphy, non-sequential dating of charcoal in a vertical profile, and absence of archaeological material. Radiocarbon dates of material taken from the surface of abandoned nests were determined for three sites on the coast of the Northern Territory. These analyses revealed that for all three sites, rainforests have contracted within the last 1800 years BP. On Elcho Island an abandoned nest was found to contain the land snail Xanthomelon spheroidea Le Guillou (known to prefer rainforest habitat) with a modern radiocarbon age, suggesting recent contraction of rainforest. The results of this study further weaken the theory that Aboriginal burning was a major cause of rain forest fragmentation in the monsoon tropics, and possibly elsewhere in Australia.

Coastal rainforest boundary dynamics during the late Holocene in monsoonal Australia: evidence from radiocarbon dates of abandoned nests of Orange-footed Scrubfowl

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bowman, D.M.J.S.; Panton, W.J. [Parks and Wildlife Commission of the Northern Territory, Darwin, NT (Australia); Head, J. [Australian National Univ, Canberra, ACT (Australia). Quaternary Dating Research Centre

1997-12-31

The late Holocene history of monsoon rainforest retreat was explored by radiocarbon dating abandoned Orange-footed Scrubfowl (Megapodius reinwardt Gaimard) nests in coastal savannas in the Northern Territory of Australia. Previous work has demonstrated that in savanna environments this rainforest bird can not build nor maintain the large heaps of soil and leaf litter that it uses for nests. Excavations of two earthen mounds in a savanna habitat verified that they were abandoned Scrubfowl nests, and not Aboriginal middens, given their lack of stratigraphy, non-sequential dating of charcoal in a vertical profile, and absence of archaeological material. Radiocarbon dates of material taken from the surface of abandoned nests were determined for three sites on the coast of the Northern Territory. These analyses revealed that for all three sites, rainforests have contracted within the last 1800 years BP. On Elcho Island an abandoned nest was found to contain the land snail Xanthomelon spheroidea Le Guillou (known to prefer rainforest habitat) with a modern radiocarbon age, suggesting recent contraction of rainforest. The results of this study further weaken the theory that Aboriginal burning was a major cause of rain forest fragmentation in the monsoon tropics, and possibly elsewhere in Australia.

New spatial and temporal indices of Indian summer monsoon rainfall

Science.gov (United States)

Dwivedi, Sanjeev; Uma, R.; Lakshmi Kumar, T. V.; Narayanan, M. S.; Pokhrel, Samir; Kripalani, R. H.

2018-02-01

The overall yearly seasonal performance of Indian southwest monsoon rainfall (ISMR) for the whole Indian land mass is presently expressed by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) by a single number, the total quantum of rainfall. Any particular year is declared as excess/deficit or normal monsoon rainfall year on the basis of this single number. It is well known that monsoon rainfall also has high interannual variability in spatial and temporal scales. To account for these aspects in ISMR, we propose two new spatial and temporal indices. These indices have been calculated using the 115 years of IMD daily 0.25° × 0.25° gridded rainfall data. Both indices seem to go in tandem with the in vogue seasonal quantum index. The anomaly analysis indicates that the indices during excess monsoon years behave randomly, while for deficit monsoon years the phase of all the three indices is the same. Evaluation of these indices is also studied with respect to the existing dynamical indices based on large-scale circulation. It is found that the new temporal indices have better link with circulation indices as compared to the new spatial indices. El Nino and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) especially over the equatorial Pacific Ocean still have the largest influence in both the new indices. However, temporal indices have much better remote influence as compared to that of spatial indices. Linkages over the Indian Ocean regions are very different in both the spatial and temporal indices. Continuous wavelet transform (CWT) analysis indicates that the complete spectrum of oscillation of the QI is shared in the lower oscillation band by the spatial index and in the higher oscillation band by the temporal index. These new indices may give some extra dimension to study Indian summer monsoon variability.

Sea surface temperature variability over North Indian Ocean - A study of two contrasting monsoon seasons

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

RameshKumar, M.R.; Sathyendranath, S.; Viswambharan, N.K.; Rao, L.V.G.

Using the satellite derived sea surface temperature (SST) data for 1979 (bad monsoon) and 1983 (good monsoon), the SST variability for two contrasting monsoon seasons is studied. The study indicates that large negative anomalies off the Somali...

Variability in rainfall over tropical Australia during summer and relationships with the Bilybara High

Science.gov (United States)

Reason, C. J. C.

2018-04-01

Variability in summer rainfall over tropical Australia, defined here as that part of the continent north of 25° S, and its linkages with regional circulation are examined. In particular, relationships with the mid-level anticyclone (termed the Bilybara High) that exists over the northwestern Australia/Timor Sea region between August and April are considered. This High forms to the southwest of the upper-level anticyclone via a balance between the upper-level divergence over the region of tropical precipitation maximum and planetary vorticity advection and moves south and strengthens during the spring and summer. It is shown that variations in the strength and position of the Bilybara High are related to anomalies in precipitation and temperature over large parts of tropical Australia as well as some areas in the south and southeast of the landmass. Some of the interannual variations in the High are related to ENSO, but there are also a number of neutral years with large anomalies in the High and hence in rainfall. On decadal time scales, a strong relationship exists between the leading mode of tropical Australian rainfall and the Bilybara High. On both interannual and decadal scales, the relationships between the High and the regional rainfall involve changes in the monsoonal northwesterlies blowing towards northern Australia, and further south, in the easterly trade winds over the region.

Rethinking Indian monsoon rainfall prediction in the context of recent global warming

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Bin; Xiang, Baoqiang; Li, Juan; Webster, Peter J.; Rajeevan, Madhavan N.; Liu, Jian; Ha, Kyung-Ja

2015-01-01

Prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) is at the heart of tropical climate prediction. Despite enormous progress having been made in predicting ISMR since 1886, the operational forecasts during recent decades (1989–2012) have little skill. Here we show, with both dynamical and physical–empirical models, that this recent failure is largely due to the models' inability to capture new predictability sources emerging during recent global warming, that is, the development of the central-Pacific El Nino-Southern Oscillation (CP–ENSO), the rapid deepening of the Asian Low and the strengthening of North and South Pacific Highs during boreal spring. A physical–empirical model that captures these new predictors can produce an independent forecast skill of 0.51 for 1989–2012 and a 92-year retrospective forecast skill of 0.64 for 1921–2012. The recent low skills of the dynamical models are attributed to deficiencies in capturing the developing CP–ENSO and anomalous Asian Low. The results reveal a considerable gap between ISMR prediction skill and predictability. PMID:25981180

Multi-decadal modulation of the El Nino-Indian monsoon relationship by Indian Ocean variability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ummenhofer, Caroline C; Sen Gupta, Alexander; Li Yue; Taschetto, Andrea S; England, Matthew H

2011-01-01

The role of leading modes of Indo-Pacific climate variability is investigated for modulation of the strength of the Indian summer monsoon during the period 1877-2006. In particular, the effect of Indian Ocean conditions on the relationship between the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian monsoon is explored. Using an extended classification for ENSO and Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) events for the past 130 years and reanalyses, we have expanded previous interannual work to show that variations in Indian Ocean conditions modulate the ENSO-Indian monsoon relationship also on decadal timescales. El Nino events are frequently accompanied by a significantly reduced Indian monsoon and widespread drought conditions due to anomalous subsidence associated with a shift in the descending branch of the zonal Walker circulation. However, for El Nino events that co-occur with positive IOD (pIOD) events, Indian Ocean conditions act to counter El Nino's drought-inducing subsidence by enhancing moisture convergence over the Indian subcontinent, with an average monsoon season resulting. Decadal modulations of the frequency of independent and combined El Nino and pIOD events are consistent with a strengthened El Nino-Indian monsoon relationship observed at the start of the 20th century and the apparent recent weakening of the El Nino-Indian monsoon relationship.

Multi-decadal modulation of the El Nino-Indian monsoon relationship by Indian Ocean variability

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ummenhofer, Caroline C; Sen Gupta, Alexander; Li Yue; Taschetto, Andrea S; England, Matthew H, E-mail: c.ummenhofer@unsw.edu.au [Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney (Australia)

2011-07-15

The role of leading modes of Indo-Pacific climate variability is investigated for modulation of the strength of the Indian summer monsoon during the period 1877-2006. In particular, the effect of Indian Ocean conditions on the relationship between the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian monsoon is explored. Using an extended classification for ENSO and Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) events for the past 130 years and reanalyses, we have expanded previous interannual work to show that variations in Indian Ocean conditions modulate the ENSO-Indian monsoon relationship also on decadal timescales. El Nino events are frequently accompanied by a significantly reduced Indian monsoon and widespread drought conditions due to anomalous subsidence associated with a shift in the descending branch of the zonal Walker circulation. However, for El Nino events that co-occur with positive IOD (pIOD) events, Indian Ocean conditions act to counter El Nino's drought-inducing subsidence by enhancing moisture convergence over the Indian subcontinent, with an average monsoon season resulting. Decadal modulations of the frequency of independent and combined El Nino and pIOD events are consistent with a strengthened El Nino-Indian monsoon relationship observed at the start of the 20th century and the apparent recent weakening of the El Nino-Indian monsoon relationship.

Characteristics of monsoonal circulation over the western Pacific

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Shen, J; Chen, E

1980-01-01

In this article the meteorological observations on ships four times daily in the area between 0 to 46/sup 0/N, 90 to 155/sup 0/E has been utilized. The grid 2 x 2 degrees along coastal waters, and 5 x 5 degrees over the open sea have been used. Here the monsoon currents over the western Pacific are calculated and analyzed and a brief discussion is given. The following three criteria were obtained: (1) The monsoon current over the western Pacific between winter and summer changed almost in opposite directions with April and October being the transitional months. In general the wind direction change from summer to winter went from the coastal waters to the open sea. (2) After the discussion about the duration and the prevailing wind directions, the following was determined: during the winter monsoon period, the 25/sup 0/N latitudinal line may be regarded as the boundary from October to March when the winter wind directions inclined N (NW or N) to the north of that line; but to the south of it NE winds prevailed. However, the durations were quite different in different regions, ranging from five to nine months. Owing to the topographic influence of the Taiwan Strait, the duration of the NE wind lasted nine months. The 25/sup 0/N line may also be applied for summer monsoons; over the eastern open ocean from the Gulf of the Bohai Sea and the Japanese islands the southerly winds lasted about nine months, but in the Taiwan Strait they lasted only two months. (3) During the winter monsoon period, the region of strong winds which encircled the continent was over the open ocean to the east of the Japanese islands and the Philippines. However, it was not as near to the shore line as in the winter season, and the frequency of strong winds was somewhat more on the southern side of the 25/sup 0/N line.

Evaluation of CFSV2 Forecast Skill for Indian Summer Monsoon Sub-Seasonal Characteristics

Science.gov (United States)

S, S. A.; Ghosh, S.

2015-12-01

Prediction of sub seasonal monsoon characteristics of Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) is highly crucial for agricultural planning and water resource management. The Climate forecast System version 2 (CFS V2), the state of the art coupled climate model developed by NCEP, is currently being employed for the seasonal and extended range forecasts of ISM. Even though CFSV2 is a fully coupled ocean- atmosphere- land model with advanced physics, increased resolution and refined initialisation, its ISM forecasts, in terms of seasonal mean and variability needs improvement. Numerous works have been done for verifying the CFSV2 forecasts in terms of the seasonal mean, its mean and variability, active and break spells, and El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) - monsoon interactions. Most of these works are based on either rain fall strength or rainfall based indices. Here we evaluate the skill of CFS v2 model in forecasting the various sub seasonal features of ISM, viz., the onset and withdrawal days of monsoon that are determined using circulation based indices, the Monsoon Intra Seasonal Oscillations (MISO), and Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures. The MISO index, we use here, is based on zonal wind at 850 hPa and Outgoing Long wave Radiation (OLR) anomalies. With this work, we aim at assessing the skill of the model in simulating the large scale circulation patterns and their variabilities within the monsoon season. Variabilities in these large scale circulation patterns are primarily responsible for the variabilities in the seasonal monsoon strength and its temporal distribution across the season. We find that the model can better forecast the large scale circulation and than the actual precipitation. Hence we suggest that seasonal rainfall forecasts can be improved by the statistical downscaling of CFSV2 forecasts by incorporating the established relationships between the well forecasted large scale variables and monsoon precipitation.

Ecological partitioning and diversity in tropical planktonic foraminifera

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Seears Heidi A

2012-04-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Ecological processes are increasingly being viewed as an important mode of diversification in the marine environment, where the high dispersal potential of pelagic organisms, and a lack of absolute barriers to gene flow may limit the occurrence of allopatric speciation through vicariance. Here we focus on the potential role of ecological partitioning in the diversification of a widely distributed group of marine protists, the planktonic foraminifera. Sampling was conducted in the tropical Arabian Sea, during the southwest (summer monsoon, when pronounced environmental conditions result in a strong disparity in temperature, salinity and productivity between distinct northern and southern water masses. Results We uncovered extensive genetic diversity within the Arabian Sea planktonic foraminifera, identifying 13 morphospecies, represented by 20 distinct SSU rRNA genetic types. Several morphospecies/genetic types displayed non-random biogeographical distributions, partitioning between the northern and southern water masses, giving a strong indication of independent ecological adaptations. Conclusions We propose sea-surface primary productivity as the main factor driving the geographical segregation of Arabian Sea planktonic foraminifera, during the SW monsoon, with variations in symbiotic associations possibly playing a role in the specific ecological adaptations observed. Our findings suggest that ecological partitioning could be contributing to the high levels of 'cryptic' genetic diversity observed within the planktonic foraminifera, and support the view that ecological processes may play a key role in the diversification of marine pelagic organisms.

Tropical easterly jet located using TOMS data

Science.gov (United States)

Bolhofer, William C.

1987-01-01

The formative stages of the onset of the 1979 southwest monsoon was marked by a WNW-ESE oriented band of marine convection over the South Arabian Sea. This convection was first observed on June 10, 1979 using satellite cloud imagery. The marine convection appeared during a major acceleration of the upper troposphere easterly wind field. A composite vertical meridional cross-section of upper level winds for June 11, revealed the core of the Tropical Easterly Jet (TEJ) at 115 mb, 9.5 deg N. Time analysis of the upper level wind field over the Tropical Wind Observing Ship (TWOS) polygon show a lowering of both the pressure level of maximum wind and tropopause level with acceleration of the upper level easterlies. The tropopause was as much as 20 mb lower on the equatorial side of the TEJ. Streamline analysis of the maximum observed easterly winds over India did not reveal the horizontal position of the TEJ. Careful analysis of Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) data for June 11, 1979 showed relatively high values of ozone south of India. It was observed that the latitudinal position of the TEJ on June 11, at approximately 70 deg E coincided with the northern edge of relatively high ozone values. Using this as a reference, the TEJ core was identified as far as NE Bay of Bengal (the limits of the available TOMS data).

Vertical structure of atmospheric boundary layer over Ranchi during the summer monsoon season

Science.gov (United States)

Chandra, Sagarika; Srivastava, Nishi; Kumar, Manoj

2018-04-01

Thermodynamic structure and variability in the atmospheric boundary layer have been investigated with the help of balloon-borne GPS radiosonde over a monsoon trough station Ranchi (Lat. 23°45'N, Long. 85°43'E, India) during the summer monsoon season (June-September) for a period of 2011-2013. Virtual potential temperature gradient method is used for the determination of mixed layer height (MLH). The MLH has been found to vary in the range of 1000-1300 m during the onset, 600-900 m during the active and 1400-1750 m during the break phase of monsoon over this region. Inter-annual variations noticed in MLH could be associated with inter-annual variability in convection and rainfall prevailing over the region. Along with the MLH, the cloud layer heights are also derived from the thermodynamic profiles for the onset, active and break phases of monsoon. Cloud layer height varied a lot during different phases of the monsoon. For the determination of boundary-layer convection, thermodynamic parameter difference (δθ = θ es- θ e) between saturated equivalent potential temperature (θ es ) and equivalent potential temperature (θ e) is used. It is a good indicator of convection and indicates the intense and suppressed convection during different phases of monsoon.

Interaction of Convective Organization and Monsoon Precipitation, Atmosphere, Surface and Sea (INCOMPASS)

Science.gov (United States)

Turner, A. G.; Bhat, G. S.; Evans, J. G.; Madan, R.; Marsham, J. H.; Martin, G.; Mitra, A. K.; Mrudula, G.; Parker, D. J.; Pattnaik, S.; Rajagopal, E. N.; Taylor, C.; Tripathi, S. N.

2016-12-01

INCOMPASS will build on a field and aircraft measurement campaign from the 2016 monsoon onset to better understand and predict monsoon rainfall. The monsoon supplies the majority of water in South Asia, however modelling and forecasting the monsoon from days to the season ahead is limited by large model errors that develop quickly. Likely problems lie in physical parametrizations such as convection, the boundary layer and land surface. At the same time, lack of detailed observations prevents more thorough understanding of monsoon circulation and its interaction with the land surface; a process governed by boundary layer and convective cloud dynamics. From May to July 2016, INCOMPASS used a modified BAe-146 jet aircraft operated by the UK Facility for Airborne Atmospheric Measurements (FAAM), for the first project of this scale in India. The India and UK team flew around 100 hours of science sorties from bases in northern and southern India. Flights from Lucknow in the northern plains took measurements to the west and southeast to allow sampling of the complete contrast from dry desert air to the humid environment over the north Bay of Bengal. These routes were repeated in the pre-monsoon and monsoon phases, measuring contrasting surface and boundary layer structures. In addition, flights from the southern base in Bengaluru measured contrasts from the Arabian Sea, across the intense rains of the Western Ghats mountains, over the rain shadow in southeast India and over the southern Bay of Bengal. Flight planning was performed with the aid of forecasts from a new UK Met Office 4km limited area model. INCOMPASS also installed a network of surface flux towers, as well as operating a cloud-base ceilometer and performing intensive radiosonde launches from a supersite in Kanpur. This presentation will outline preliminary results from the field campaign including new observations of the surface, boundary layer structure and atmospheric profiles together with detailed

Effect of Floodplain Inundation on River Pollution in Taiwan's Strong Monsoonal Climate

Science.gov (United States)

Hester, E. T.; Lin, A. Y. C.

2017-12-01

River-floodplain interaction provides important benefits such as flood mitigation, provision of ecological habitat, and improved water quality. Human actions have historically reduced such interaction and associated benefits by diking, floodplain fill, and river regulation. In response, floodplain restoration has become popular in North America and Europe, but is less practiced in Asia. In Taiwan, unusually strong monsoons and steep terrain alter floodplain dynamics relative to elsewhere around the world, and provide a unique environment for floodplain management. We used numerical models of flow, transport, and reaction in river channels and floodplains to quantify the effect of river-floodplain interaction on water quality in Taiwan's strong monsoon and high topographic relief. We conducted sensitivity analyses of parameters such as river slope, monsoon severity, reservoir operation mode, degree of floodplain reconnection, contaminant reaction rate, and contaminant reaction type on floodplain connectivity and contaminant mitigation. We found significant differences in floodplain hydraulics and residence times in Taiwan's steep monsoonal environment relative to the shallower non-monsoonal environment typical of the eastern USA, with significant implications for water quality. For example, greater flashiness of floodplain inundation in Taiwan provides greater challenges for reconnecting sufficient floodplain volume to handle monsoonal runoff. Yet longer periods when floodplains are reliably dry means that such lands may have greater value for seasonal use such as parks or agriculture. The potential for floodplain restoration in Taiwan is thus significant, but qualitatively different than in the eastern USA.

Influence of ENSO on Regional Indian Summer Monsoon Precipitation—Local Atmospheric Influences or Remote Influence from Pacific

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Indrani Roy

2016-02-01

Full Text Available Using CMIP5 model outputs in different El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO phases, this work investigates the indicator that could be used as an Index to characterise regional Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM precipitation. Dividing the Indian subcontinent into five arbitrarily chosen regions, viz. Central North East (CNE (18°N–31°N, 86°E–75°E, Hilly (H (28°N–38°N, 85°E–70°E, North West (NW (21°N–31°N, 79°E–67°E, North East (NE (21°N–31°N, 86°E–97°E and Southern India (S (18°N–7°N, 73°E–85°E, local wind field and remote influences from the tropical Pacific are considered to improve understanding of regional monsoon rainfall. Results are also compared with observations/reanalysis data to pinpoint areas of shortcomings and agreements. Model results suggest that regional wind velocity, viz. meridional wind component (V at 850 mb level (V850 and zonal component at 200 mb (U200 and 850 mb (U850 can yield better estimation of local precipitation in regions CNE, H and NW, agreeing well with earlier proposed monsoon Indices. Such observations are independent of different subcategories of ENSO phases and models show good correspondence with observations. Analyses with V at 200 mb (V200 indicate circulation of the upper branch of Hadley cells in regions CNE and S, though suggest the best agreement among models in comparison with other fields, but there are some deviations from observations, indicating a missing mechanism in the models. Using models, this study identified the best parameter in different regions that could be used for the regional monsoon Index, irrespective of various ENSO subcategories; for CNE it is the U200, for H it is U200 and U850, and for NW it is U850. The current analysis, however, fails to indicate anything clearly about the NE region. When focusing on the remote influence from the eastern Pacific region, it is found that atmospheric contribution to regional ISM precipitation fails to indicate

Dynamics and composition of the Asian summer monsoon anticyclone

Science.gov (United States)

Gottschaldt, Klaus-Dirk; Schlager, Hans; Baumann, Robert; Sinh Cai, Duy; Eyring, Veronika; Graf, Phoebe; Grewe, Volker; Jöckel, Patrick; Jurkat-Witschas, Tina; Voigt, Christiane; Zahn, Andreas; Ziereis, Helmut

2018-04-01

This study places HALO research aircraft observations in the upper-tropospheric Asian summer monsoon anticyclone (ASMA) into the context of regional, intra-annual variability by hindcasts with the ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) model. The observations were obtained during the Earth System Model Validation (ESMVal) campaign in September 2012. Observed and simulated tracer-tracer relations reflect photochemical O3 production as well as in-mixing from the lower troposphere and the tropopause layer. The simulations demonstrate that tropospheric trace gas profiles in the monsoon season are distinct from those in the rest of the year, and the measurements reflect the main processes acting throughout the monsoon season. Net photochemical O3 production is significantly enhanced in the ASMA, where uplifted precursors meet increased NOx, mainly produced by lightning. An analysis of multiple monsoon seasons in the simulation shows that stratospherically influenced tropopause layer air is regularly entrained at the eastern ASMA flank and then transported in the southern fringe around the interior region. Radial transport barriers of the circulation are effectively overcome by subseasonal dynamical instabilities of the anticyclone, which occur quite frequently and are of paramount importance for the trace gas composition of the ASMA. Both the isentropic entrainment of O3-rich air and the photochemical conversion of uplifted O3-poor air tend to increase O3 in the ASMA outflow.

Effects of large-scale deforestation on precipitation in the monsoon regions: remote versus local effects.

Science.gov (United States)

Devaraju, N; Bala, Govindasamy; Modak, Angshuman

2015-03-17

In this paper, using idealized climate model simulations, we investigate the biogeophysical effects of large-scale deforestation on monsoon regions. We find that the remote forcing from large-scale deforestation in the northern middle and high latitudes shifts the Intertropical Convergence Zone southward. This results in a significant decrease in precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere monsoon regions (East Asia, North America, North Africa, and South Asia) and moderate precipitation increases in the Southern Hemisphere monsoon regions (South Africa, South America, and Australia). The magnitude of the monsoonal precipitation changes depends on the location of deforestation, with remote effects showing a larger influence than local effects. The South Asian Monsoon region is affected the most, with 18% decline in precipitation over India. Our results indicate that any comprehensive assessment of afforestation/reforestation as climate change mitigation strategies should carefully evaluate the remote effects on monsoonal precipitation alongside the large local impacts on temperatures.

Late Holocene monsoon climate as evidenced by proxy records from a lacustrine sediment sequence in western Guangdong, South China

Science.gov (United States)

Zhong, Wei; Cao, jiayuan; Xue, Jibin; Ouyang, Jun; Tang, Xiaohong; Yin, Huanling; Liao, Congyun; Long, Kun

2014-02-01

The study of a 300-cm-thick exposed lacustrine sediment section in the Hedong village in Zhaoqing area which is located in sub-tropical west Guangdong Province in South China, demonstrates that the lacustrine sedimentary sequence possibly contains evidence for exploring variation of Asian monsoon climate. Multi-proxy records, including the humification intensity, total organic carbon, and grain size fractions, reveal a general trend towards dry and cold conditions in the late Holocene that this is because of a decrease in solar insolation on an orbital scale. Three intensified Asian summer monsoon (ASM) intervals (˜3300-3000 cal yr BP, ˜2600-1600 cal yr BP, and ˜900-600 cal yr BP), and three weakened ASM intervals (˜4000-3300 cal yr BP, ˜3000-2600 cal yr BP, and ˜1600-900 cal yr BP) are identified. Our humification record (HDcal) shows a good correlation on multi-centennial scale with the tree ring Δ14C record, a proxy of solar activity. A spectral analysis of HDcal reveals four significant cycles, i.e., ˜1250 yr, 300 yr, 110 yr, and 70 yr, and most of these cycles are related to the solar activity. Our findings indicate that solar output and oceanic-atmospheric circulation probably have influenced the late Holocene climate variability in the study region.

Detecting human impacts on the flora, fauna, and summer monsoon of Pleistocene Australia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

G. H. Miller

2007-08-01

Full Text Available The moisture balance across northern and central Australia is dominated by changes in the strength of the Australian Summer Monsoon. Lake-level records that record changes in monsoon strength on orbital timescales are most consistent with a Northern Hemisphere insolation control on monsoon strength, a result consistent with recent modeling studies. A weak Holocene monsoon relative to monsoon strength 65–60 ka, despite stronger forcing, suggests a changed monsoon regime after 60 ka. Shortly after 60 ka humans colonized Australia and all of Australia's largest mammals became extinct. Between 60 and 40 ka Australian climate was similar to present and not changing rapidly. Consequently, attention has turned toward plausible human mechanisms for the extinction, with proponents for over-hunting, ecosystem change, and introduced disease. To differentiate between these options we utilize isotopic tracers of diet preserved in eggshells of two large, flightless birds to track the status of ecosystems before and after human colonization. More than 800 dated eggshells of the Australian emu (Dromaius novaehollandiae, an opportunistic, dominantly herbivorous feeder, provide a 140-kyr dietary reconstruction that reveals unprecedented reduction in the bird's food resources about 50 ka, coeval in three distant regions. These data suggest a tree/shrub savannah with occasionally rich grasslands was converted abruptly to the modern desert scrub. The diet of the heavier, extinct Genyornis newtoni, derived from >550 dated eggshells, was more restricted than in co-existing Dromaius, implying a more specialized feeding strategy. We suggest that generalist feeders, such as Dromaius, were able to adapt to a changed vegetation regime, whereas more specialized feeders, such as Genyornis, became extinct. We speculate that ecosystem collapse across arid and semi-arid zones was a consequence of systematic burning by early humans

Nuclear electronic instruments in tropical countries. Technical specifications for the ordering by the IAEA of nuclear electronic instruments to be used in tropical countries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1963-01-01

This book comes from work carried out at the International Atomic Energy Agency. It includes suggestions and recommendations of consultants from eleven countries made during a meeting at Agency headquarters in Vienna on 18 - 20 December 1961, and comments received afterwards on a draft recommendation. It is intended to serve as a guide for the Agency in purchasing equipment for use in tropical countries but not as a strict regulation to be followed in all cases. Suitable alternative materials and techniques are not precluded, but they shall be used only with the consent of the Agency. Before making its purchases the Agency will examine nuclear electronic equipment to find what is best and most suitable to meet difficult environmental conditions of tropical countries (Appendix B). Wherever possible it will recommend suitable air-conditioning systems. An attempt is made in this book to base recommendations on the accepted international procedures (technology and terminology) that are published by the International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC). Because rapidly advancing technology and the large amount of work being done in this field will very quickly make this book obsolete, an effort will be made to revise it in the future. Emphasis is made on the need to maintain requirements at limits that are restrictive. The purpose is to avoid abnormally high fabrication costs and to allow the Agency to select commercially manufactured instruments that best meet severe environmental conditions because of sound engineering design and use of first-quality materials and components. The section called 'Climatic conditions' has two purposes. The first is to tell manufacturers of the severity of conditions. The second is to describe conditions in particular locations. So that the manufacturer will be even more precisely informed of exact climatic conditions in which his products must perform, he will be provided with information from a questionnaire sent by the Agency to each

Initial results from the StratoClim aircraft campaign in the Asian Monsoon in summer 2017

Science.gov (United States)

Rex, M.

2017-12-01

The Asian Monsoon System is one of the Earth's largest and most energetic weather systems. Monsoon rainfall is critical to feeding over a billion people in Asia and the monsoon circulation affects weather patterns over the entire northern hemisphere. The Monsoon also acts like an enormous elevator, pumping vast amounts of air and pollutants from the surface up to the tropopause region at levels above 16km altitude, from where air can ascend into the stratosphere, where it spreads globally. Thus the monsoon affects the chemical composition of the global tropopause region and the stratosphere, and hence plays a key role for the composition of the UTS. Dynamically the monsoon circulation leads to the formation of a large anticyclone at tropopause levels above South Asia - the Asian Monsoon Anticyclone (AMA). Satellite images show a large cloud of aerosols directly above the monsoon, the Asian Tropopause Aerosol Layer (ATAL). In July to August 2017 the international research project StratoClim carried out the first in-situ aircraft measurements in the AMA and the ATAL with the high altitude research aircraft M55-Geophysica. Around 8 scientific flights took place in the airspaces of Nepal, India and Bangladesh and have horizontally and vertically probed the AMA and have well characterized the ATAL along flight patterns that have been carefully designed by a theory, modelling and satellite data analysing team in the field. The aircraft campaign has been complemented by launches of research balloons from ground stations in Nepal, Bangladesh, China and Palau. The presentation will give an overview of the StratoClim project, the aircraft and balloon activities and initial results from the StratoClim Asian Monsoon campaign in summer 2017.

The northwestern Indian Ocean during the monsoons of 1979: distribution, abundance, and feeding of zooplankton

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Smith, S.L.

1982-01-01

Upwelling induced by the separation of the Somali Current from the coast of east Africa is associated with low surface temperatures, high concentrations of nitrate, and blooms of phytoplankton. Coefficients of concordance, based upon 17 taxa of zooplankton collected at 33 stations in the southwest monsoon and 15 stations in the northeast monsoon, were consistently larger for the southwest monsoon and indicative of a general response of the zooplankton in the northwestern Indian Ocean. The largest coefficients of concordance in the southwest monsoon were among adult females of Paracalanus denudatus, Paracalanus parvus, and Paracalanus aculeatus and of Calanoides carinatus and Eucalanus spp. Coefficients of concordance among copepodids of six taxa had a trend similar to adult females in the southwest monsoon. During the southwest monsoon, total biomass of zooplankton was significantly greater within areas of upwelling than outside; adult females and copepodids of C. carinatus and Eucalanus spp. were significantly more abundant within the upwelling regions, along with adult females of Clausocalanus furcatus and Clausocalanus minor. The upwelling regions, which are associated with a reproductively active population of the large-bodied C. carinatus, are the primary features affecting distributions of zooplankton during the southwest monsoon and the main difference between monsoons. The ontogenetic migration of C. carinatus is essentially an annual life-history strategy and therefore on the same temporal scale as the reversals in the monsoonal winds and associated upwelling. The ability of C. carinatus to ingest readily the diatoms that dominate the upwelling regions and to store lipid is crucial to its dominance of the areas of upwelling both in numbers and biomass.

A mechanism for land-ocean contrasts in global monsoon trends in a warming climate

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fasullo, J. [National Center for Atmospheric Research, CAS/NCAR, Boulder, CO (United States)

2012-09-15

A central paradox of the global monsoon record involves reported decreases in rainfall over land during an era in which the global hydrologic cycle is both expected and observed to intensify. It is within this context that this work develops a physical basis for both interpreting the observed record and anticipating changes in the monsoons in a warming climate while bolstering the concept of the global monsoon in the context of shared feedbacks. The global-land monsoon record across multiple reanalyses is first assessed. Trends that in other studies have been taken as real are shown to likely be spurious as a result of changes in the assimilated data streams both prior to and during the satellite era. Nonetheless, based on satellite estimates, robust increases in monsoon rainfall over ocean do exist and a physical basis for this land-ocean contrast remains lacking. To address the contrast's causes, simulated trends are therefore assessed. While projections of total rainfall are inconsistent across models, the robust land-ocean contrast identified in observations is confirmed. A feedback mechanism is proposed rooted in the facts that land areas warm disproportionately relative to ocean, and onshore flow is the chief source of monsoonal moisture. Reductions in lower tropospheric relative humidity over land domains are therefore inevitable and these have direct consequences for the monsoonal convective environment including an increase in the lifting condensation level and a shift in the distribution of convection generally towards less frequent and potentially more intense events. The mechanism is interpreted as an important modulating influence on the ''rich-get-richer'' mechanism. Caveats for regional monsoons exist and are discussed. (orig.)

GMMIP (v1.0) contribution to CMIP6: Global Monsoons Model Inter-comparison Project

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zhou, Tianjun; Turner, Andrew G.; Kinter, James L.; Wang, Bin; Qian, Yun; Chen, Xiaolong; Wu, Bo; Wang, Bin; Liu, Bo; Zou, Liwei; He, Bian

2016-10-10

The Global Monsoons Model Inter-comparison Project (GMMIP) has been endorsed by the panel of Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP) as one of the participating model inter-comparison projects (MIPs) in the sixth phase of CMIP (CMIP6). The focus of GMMIP is on monsoon climatology, variability, prediction and projection, which is relevant to four of the “Grand Challenges” proposed by the World Climate Research Programme. At present, 21 international modeling groups are committed to joining GMMIP. This overview paper introduces the motivation behind GMMIP and the scientific questions it intends to answer. Three tiers of experiments, of decreasing priority, are designed to examine (a) model skill in simulating the climatology and interannual-to-multidecadal variability of global monsoons forced by the sea surface temperature during historical climate period; (b) the roles of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation in driving variations of the global and regional monsoons; and (c) the effects of large orographic terrain on the establishment of the monsoons. The outputs of the CMIP6 Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima experiments (DECK), “historical” simulation and endorsed MIPs will also be used in the diagnostic analysis of GMMIP to give a comprehensive understanding of the roles played by different external forcings, potential improvements in the simulation of monsoon rainfall at high resolution and reproducibility at decadal timescales. The implementation of GMMIP will improve our understanding of the fundamental physics of changes in the global and regional monsoons over the past 140 years and ultimately benefit monsoons prediction and projection in the current century.

GIS development to monitor climate change and its geohydrological consequences on non-monsoon crop pattern in Himalaya

Science.gov (United States)

Rawat, Pradeep K.

2014-09-01

The main objective of the study was to assess climate change and its geohydrological impacts on non-monsoon crop pattern at watershed level through GIS development on climate informatics, land use informatics, hydro-informatics and agro-informatics. The Dabka watershed constitutes a part of the Kosi Basin in densely populated Lesser Himalaya, India in district Nainital has been selected for the case illustration. This reconnaissance study analyzed the climatic database for last three decades (1982-2012) and estimates that the average temperature and evaporation loss have been rising with the rate of 0.07 °C/yr and 4.03 mm/yr respectively whereas the average rainfall has been decreasing with the rate of 0.60 mm/yr. These rates of climate change increasing with mounting elevations. Consequently the existing microclimatic zones (sub-tropical, temperate and moist temperate) shifting towards higher altitudes and affecting the favorable conditions of the land use pattern and decreased the eco-friendly forest and vegetation cover. The land use degradation and high rate of deforestation (0.22 km2 or 1.5%/yr) leads to accelerate several hydrological problems during non-monsoon period (i.e. decreasing infiltration capacity of land surface, declining underground water level, drying up natural perennial springs and streams, decreasing irrigation water availability etc.). In order to that the non-monsoon crops yield has been decreasing with the rate of 0.60% each year as the results suggest that the average crop yield is just about 58 q/ha whereas twenty five to thirty year back it was recorded about 66 q/ha which is about 12% higher (8 q/ha) than existing yield. On the other hand the population increasing with the growth rate of 2% each year. Therefore, decreasing crop yield and increasing population raised food deficiency problem and the people adopting other occupations which ultimately affecting rural livelihood of the Himalaya.

Evaluation of global climate models for Indian monsoon climatology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kodra, Evan; Ganguly, Auroop R; Ghosh, Subimal

2012-01-01

The viability of global climate models for forecasting the Indian monsoon is explored. Evaluation and intercomparison of model skills are employed to assess the reliability of individual models and to guide model selection strategies. Two dominant and unique patterns of Indian monsoon climatology are trends in maximum temperature and periodicity in total rainfall observed after 30 yr averaging over India. An examination of seven models and their ensembles reveals that no single model or model selection strategy outperforms the rest. The single-best model for the periodicity of Indian monsoon rainfall is the only model that captures a low-frequency natural climate oscillator thought to dictate the periodicity. The trend in maximum temperature, which most models are thought to handle relatively better, is best captured through a multimodel average compared to individual models. The results suggest a need to carefully evaluate individual models and model combinations, in addition to physical drivers where possible, for regional projections from global climate models. (letter)

Model Interpretation of Climate Signals: Application to the Asian Monsoon Climate

Science.gov (United States)

Lau, William K. M.

2002-01-01

This is an invited review paper intended to be published as a Chapter in a book entitled "The Global Climate System: Patterns, Processes and Teleconnections" Cambridge University Press. The author begins with an introduction followed by a primer of climate models, including a description of various modeling strategies and methodologies used for climate diagnostics and predictability studies. Results from the CLIVAR Monsoon Model Intercomparison Project (MMIP) were used to illustrate the application of the strategies to modeling the Asian monsoon. It is shown that state-of-the art atmospheric GCMs have reasonable capability in simulating the seasonal mean large scale monsoon circulation, and response to El Nino. However, most models fail to capture the climatological as well as interannual anomalies of regional scale features of the Asian monsoon. These include in general over-estimating the intensity and/or misplacing the locations of the monsoon convection over the Bay of Bengal, and the zones of heavy rainfall near steep topography of the Indian subcontinent, Indonesia, and Indo-China and the Philippines. The intensity of convection in the equatorial Indian Ocean is generally weaker in models compared to observations. Most important, an endemic problem in all models is the weakness and the lack of definition of the Mei-yu rainbelt of the East Asia, in particular the part of the Mei-yu rainbelt over the East China Sea and southern Japan are under-represented. All models seem to possess certain amount of intraseasonal variability, but the monsoon transitions, such as the onset and breaks are less defined compared with the observed. Evidences are provided that a better simulation of the annual cycle and intraseasonal variability is a pre-requisite for better simulation and better prediction of interannual anomalies.

Sensible and latent heat forced divergent circulations in the West African Monsoon System

Science.gov (United States)

Hagos, S.; Zhang, C.

2008-12-01

Field properties of divergent circulation are utilized to identify the roles of various diabatic processes in forcing moisture transport in the dynamics of the West African Monsoon and its seasonal cycle. In this analysis, the divergence field is treated as a set of point sources and is partitioned into two sub-sets corresponding to latent heat release and surface sensible heat flux at each respective point. The divergent circulation associated with each set is then calculated from the Poisson's equation using Gauss-Seidel iteration. Moisture transport by each set of divergent circulation is subsequently estimated. The results show different roles of the divergent circulations forced by surface sensible and latent heating in the monsoon dynamics. Surface sensible heating drives a shallow meridional circulation, which transports moisture deep into the continent at the polar side of the monsoon rain band and thereby promotes the seasonal northward migration of monsoon precipitation during the monsoon onset season. In contrast, the circulation directly associated with latent heating is deep and the corresponding moisture convergence is within the region of precipitation. Latent heating also induces dry air advection from the north. Neither effect promotes the seasonal northward migration of precipitation. The relative contributions of the processes associated with latent and sensible heating to the net moisture convergence, and hence the seasonal evolution of monsoon precipitation, depend on the background moisture.

Influence of monsoon upwelling on the planktonic foraminifera off Oman during Late Quaternary

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Naidu, P.D.

Planktonic foraminifer abundances, fluxes, test sizes, and coiling properties are influenced in various ways by the southwest monsoon winds and associated upwelling in the western Arabian Sea. The influence of monsoon driven upwelling...

On the link between extreme floods and excess monsoon epochs in South Asia

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kale, Vishwas [University of Pune, Department of Geography, Pune (India)

2012-09-15

This paper provides a synoptic view of extreme monsoon floods on all the nine large rivers of South Asia and their association with the excess (above-normal) monsoon rainfall periods. Annual maximum flood series for 18 gauging stations spread over four countries (India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Nepal) and long-term monsoon rainfall data were analyzed to ascertain whether the extreme floods were clustered in time and whether they coincided with multi-decade excess monsoon rainfall epochs at the basin level. Simple techniques, such as the Cramer's t-test, regression and Mann-Kendall (MK) tests and Hurst method were used to evaluate the trends and patterns of the flood and rainfall series. MK test reveals absence of any long-term tendency in all the series. However, the Cramer's t test and Hurst-Mandelbrot rescaled range statistic provide evidence that both rainfall and flood time series are persistent. Using the Cramer's t-test the excess monsoon epochs for each basin were identified. The excess monsoon periods for different basins were found to be highly asynchronous with respect to duration as well as the beginning and end. Three main conclusions readily emerge from the analyses. Extreme floods (>90th percentile) in South Asia show a tendency to cluster in time. About three-fourth of the extreme floods have occurred during the excess monsoon periods between {proportional_to}1840 and 2000 AD, implying a noteworthy link between the two. The frequency of large floods was higher during the post-1940 period in general and during three decades (1940s, 1950s and 1980s) in particular. (orig.)

Automated software configuration in the MONSOON system

Science.gov (United States)

Daly, Philip N.; Buchholz, Nick C.; Moore, Peter C.

2004-09-01

MONSOON is the next generation OUV-IR controller project being developed at NOAO. The design is flexible, emphasizing code re-use, maintainability and scalability as key factors. The software needs to support widely divergent detector systems ranging from multi-chip mosaics (for LSST, QUOTA, ODI and NEWFIRM) down to large single or multi-detector laboratory development systems. In order for this flexibility to be effective and safe, the software must be able to configure itself to the requirements of the attached detector system at startup. The basic building block of all MONSOON systems is the PAN-DHE pair which make up a single data acquisition node. In this paper we discuss the software solutions used in the automatic PAN configuration system.

Impacts of Aerosol-Monsoon Interaction on Rainfall and Circulation over Northern India and the Himalaya Foothills

Science.gov (United States)

Lau, William K. M.; Kim, Kyu-Myong; Shi, Jainn-Jong; Matsui, T.; Chin, M.; Tan, Qian; Peters-Lidard, C.; Tao, W. K.

2016-01-01

The boreal summer of 2008 was unusual for the Indian monsoon, featuring exceptional heavy loading of dust aerosols over the Arabian Sea and northern-central India, near normal all- India rainfall, but excessive heavy rain, causing disastrous flooding in the Northern Indian Himalaya Foothills (NIHF) regions, accompanied by persistent drought conditions in central and southern India. Using NASA Unified-physics Weather Research Forecast (NUWRF) model with fully interactive aerosol physics and dynamics, we carried out three sets of 7-day ensemble model forecast experiments: 1) control with no aerosol, 2) aerosol radiative effect only and 3) aerosol radiative and aerosol-cloud-microphysics effects, to study the impacts of aerosol monsoon interactions on monsoon variability over the NIHF during the summer of 2008. Results show that aerosol-radiation interaction (ARI), i.e., dust aerosol transport, and dynamical feedback processes induced by aerosol-radiative heating, plays a key role in altering the large scale monsoon circulation system, reflected by an increased north-south tropospheric temperature gradient, a northward shift of heavy monsoon rainfall, advancing the monsoon onset by 1-5 days over the HF, consistent with the EHP hypothesis (Lau et al. 2006). Additionally, we found that dust aerosols, via the semi-direct effect, increase atmospheric stability, and cause the dissipation of a developing monsoon onset cyclone over northeastern India northern Bay of Bengal. Eventually, in a matter of several days, ARI transforms the developing monsoon cyclone into mesoscale convective cells along the HF slopes. Aerosol-Cloud-microphysics Interaction (ACI) further enhances the ARI effect in invigorating the deep convection cells and speeding up the transformation processes. Results indicate that even in short-term (up to weekly) numerical forecasting of monsoon circulation and rainfall, effects of aerosol-monsoon interaction can be substantial and cannot be ignored.

Monsoon and primary acute angle closure in malaysia.

Science.gov (United States)

Ch'ng, T W; Mosavi, S A A; Noor Azimah, A A; Azlan, N Z; Azhany, Y; Liza-Sharmini, A T

2013-10-01

Acute angle closure (AAC) without prompt treatment may lead to optic neuropathy. Environmental factor such as climate change may precipitate pupillary block, the possible mechanism of AAC. To determine the association of northeast monsoon and incidence of AAC in Malaysia. A retrospective study was conducted on AAC patients admitted to two main tertiary hospitals in Kelantan, Malaysia between January 2001 and December 2011. The cumulative number of rainy day, amount of rain, mean cloud cover and 24 hours mean humidity at the estimated day of attack were obtained from the Department of Meteorology, Malaysia. A total 73 cases of AAC were admitted with mean duration of 4.1SD 2.0 days. More than half have previous history of possibility of AAC. There was higher incidence of AAC during the northeast monsoon (October to March). There was also significant correlation of number of rainy day (r=0.718, pclimate as the potential risk factor. Prompt treatment to arrest pupillary block and reduction of the intraocular pressure is important to prevent potential glaucomatous damage. Public awareness of AAC and accessibility to treatment should be part of preparation to face the effect of northeast monsoon.

Predictability experiments for the Asian summer monsoon: impact of SST anomalies on interannual and intraseasonal variability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Molteni, Franco; Corti, Susanna; Ferranti, Laura; Slingo, Julia M.

2003-07-01

The effects of SST anomalies on the interannual and intraseasonal variability of the Asian summer monsoon have been studied by multivariate statistical analyses of 850-hPa wind and rainfall fields simulated in a set of ensemble integrations of the ECMWF atmospheric GCM, referred to as the PRISM experiments. The simulations used observed SSTs (PRISM-O), covering 9 years characterised by large variations of the ENSO phenomenon in the 1980's and the early 1990's. A parallel set of simulations was also performed with climatological SSTs (PRISM-C), thus enabling the influence of SST forcing on the modes of interannual and intraseasonal variability to be investigated. As in observations, the model's interannual variability is dominated by a zonally-oriented mode which describes the north-south movement of the tropical convergence zone (TCZ). This mode appears to be independent of SST forcing and its robustness between the PRISM-O and PRISM-C simulations suggests that it is driven by internal atmospheric dynamics. On the other hand, the second mode of variability, which again has a good correspondence with observed patterns, shows a clear relationship with the ENSO cycle. Since the mode related to ENSO accounts for only a small part of the total variance, the notion of a quasi-linear superposition of forced and unforced modes of variability may not provide an appropriate interpretation of monsoon interannual variability. Consequently, the possibility of a non-linear influence has been investigated by exploring the relationship between interannual and intraseasonal variability. As in other studies, a common mode of interannual and intraseasonal variability has been found, in this case describing the north-south transition of the TCZ associated with monsoon active/break cycles. Although seasonal-mean values of the Principal Component (PC) timeseries associated with the leading intraseasonal mode shows no significant correlation with ENSO, the 2-dimensional probability

Predictability experiments for the Asian summer monsoon: Impact of SST anomalies on interannual and intraseasonal variability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Molteni, F.; Corti, S.; Ferranti, L.; Slingo, J.M.

2002-04-01

The effects of SST anomalies on the interannual and intraseasonal variability of the Asian summer monsoon have been studied by multivariate statistical analyses of 850-hPa wind and rainfall yields simulated in a set of ensemble integrations of the ECMWF atmospheric GCM, referred to as the PRISM experiments. The simulations used observed SSTs (PRISM-O), covering 9 years characterised by large variations of the ENSO phenomenon in the 1980's and the early 1990's. A parallel set of simulations was also performed with climatological SSTs (PRISM-C), thus enabling the influence of SST forcing on the modes of interannual and intraseasonal variability to be investigated. As in observations, the model's interannual variability is dominated by a zonally-oriented mode which describes the north-south movement of the tropical convergence zone (TCZ). This mode appears to be independent of SST forcing and its robustness between the PRISM-O and PRISM-C simulations suggests that it is driven by internal atmospheric dynamics. On the other hand, the second mode of variability, which again has a good correspondence with observed patterns, shows a clear relationship with the ENSO cycle. Since the mode related to ENSO accounts for only a small part of the total variance, the notion of a quasi-linear superposition of forced and unforced modes of variability may not provide an appropriate interpretation of monsoon interannual variability. Consequently, the possibility of a non-linear influence has been investigated by exploring the relationship between interannual and intraseasonal variability. As in other studies, a common mode of interannual and intraseasonal variability has been found, in this case describing the north-south transition of the TCZ associated with monsoon active/break cycles. Although seasonal-mean values of the Principal Component (PC) timeseries associated with the leading intraseasonal mode shows no significant correlation with ENSO, the 2-dimensional probability

The detection of post-monsoon tropospheric ozone variability over south Asia using IASI data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

B. Barret

2011-09-01

Full Text Available The ozone (O₃ variability over south Asia during the 2008 post-monsoon season has been assessed using measurements from the MetOP-A/IASI instrument and O₃ profiles retrieved with the SOftware for a Fast Retrieval of IASI Data (SOFRID. The information content study and error analyses carried out in this paper show that IASI Level 1 data can be used to retrieve tropospheric O₃ columns (TOC, surface-225 hPa and UTLS columns (225–70 hPa with errors smaller than 20%. Validation with global radiosonde O₃ profiles obtained during a period of 6 months show the excellent agreement between IASI and radiosonde for the UTLS with correlation coefficient R > 0.91 and good agreement in the troposphere with correlation coefficient R > 0.74. For both the UTLS and the troposphere Relative Standard Deviations (RSD are lower than 23%. Comparison with in-situ measurements from the MOZAIC program around Hyderabad demonstrates that IASI is able to capture the TOC inter and intra-seasonal variability in central India. Nevertheless, the agreement is mitigated by the fact that the smoothing of the true O₃ profiles by the retrieval results in a reduction of the TOC variability detected by IASI relative to the variability observed by in situ instruments. The post-monsoon temporal variability of the vertical profile of O₃ around Hyderabad has been investigated with MOZAIC observations. These observations from airborne instruments show that tropospheric O₃ is steadily elevated during most of the studied period with the exception of two sharp drops following the crossing of tropical storms over India. Lagrangian simulations with the FLEXPART model indicate that elevated O₃ concentrations in the middle troposphere near Hyderabad are associated with the transport of UTLS air-masses that have followed the Subtropical Westerly Jet (SWJ and subsided over northern India together

Role of Ocean Initial Conditions to Diminish Dry Bias in the Seasonal Prediction of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall: A Case Study Using Climate Forecast System

Science.gov (United States)

Koul, Vimal; Parekh, Anant; Srinivas, G.; Kakatkar, Rashmi; Chowdary, Jasti S.; Gnanaseelan, C.

2018-03-01

Coupled models tend to underestimate Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall over most of the Indian subcontinent. Present study demonstrates that a part of dry bias is arising from the discrepancies in Oceanic Initial Conditions (OICs). Two hindcast experiments are carried out using Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) for summer monsoons of 2012-2014 in which two different OICs are utilized. With respect to first experiment (CTRL), second experiment (AcSAL) differs by two aspects: usage of high-resolution atmospheric forcing and assimilation of only ARGO observed temperature and salinity profiles for OICs. Assessment of OICs indicates that the quality of OICs is enhanced due to assimilation of actual salinity profiles. Analysis reveals that AcSAL experiment showed 10% reduction in the dry bias over the Indian land region during the ISM compared to CTRL. This improvement is consistently apparent in each month and is highest for June. The better representation of upper ocean thermal structure of tropical oceans at initial stage supports realistic upper ocean stability and mixing. Which in fact reduced the dominant cold bias over the ocean, feedback to air-sea interactions and land sea thermal contrast resulting better representation of monsoon circulation and moisture transport. This reduced bias of tropospheric moisture and temperature over the Indian land mass and also produced better tropospheric temperature gradient over land as well as ocean. These feedback processes reduced the dry bias in the ISM rainfall. Study concludes that initializing the coupled models with realistic OICs can reduce the underestimation of ISM rainfall prediction.

Influence of the monsoon trough on air-sea interaction in the head of the Bay of Bengal during the southwest monsoon of 1990 (monsoon trough boundary layer experiment - 90)

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Sarma, Y.V.B.; Seetaramayya, P.; Murty, V.S.N.; Rao, D.P.

programme reveals considerable temporal variability in sea-level pressure, sea-surface temperature (SST) and the fluxes of heat and momentum at the air-sea interface. This variability is related closely to the north-south movement of the monsoon trough...

Seasonal and Intraseasonal Variability of Mesoscale Convective Systems over the South Asian Monsoon Region

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Virts, Katrina S.; Houze, Robert A.

2016-12-01

Seasonal and intraseasonal differences in mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) over South Asia are examined using A-Train satellites, a ground-based lightning network, and reanalysis fields. Pre-monsoon (April-May) MCSs occur primarily over Bangladesh and the eastern Bay of Bengal. During the monsoon (June-September), small MCSs occur over the Meghalaya Plateau and northeast Himalayan notch, while large and connected MCSs are most widespread over the Bay of Bengal. Monsoon MCSs produce less lightning and exhibit more extensive stratiform and anvil reflectivity structures in CloudSat observations than do pre-monsoon MCSs. During the monsoon season, Bay of Bengal and Meghalaya Plateau MCSs vary with the 30-60 day northward-propagating intraseasonal oscillation, while northeast Himalayan notch MCSs are associated with weak large-scale anomalies but locally enhanced CAPE. During intraseasonal active periods, a zone of enhanced large and connected MCSs, precipitation, and lightning extends from the northeastern Arabian Sea southeast over India and the Bay of Bengal, flanked by suppressed anomalies. Spatial variability is observed within this enhancement zone: lightning is most enhanced where MCSs are less enhanced, and vice versa. Reanalysis composites indicate that Bay of Bengal MCSs are associated with monsoon depressions, which are frequent during active monsoon periods, while Meghalaya Plateau MCSs are most frequent at the end of break periods, as anomalous southwesterly winds strengthen moist advection toward the terrain. Over both regions, MCSs exhibit more extensive stratiform and anvil regions and less lightning when the large-scale environment is moister, and vice versa.

Forecasting Monsoon Precipitation Using Artificial Neural Networks

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

无

2001-01-01

This paper explores the application of Artificial Intelligent (AI) techniques for climate forecast. It pres ents a study on modelling the monsoon precipitation forecast by means of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs). Using the historical data of the total amount of summer rainfall over the Delta Area of Yangtze River in China, three ANNs models have been developed to forecast the monsoon precipitation in the corre sponding area one year, five-year, and ten-year forward respectively. Performances of the models have been validated using a ＇new＇ data set that has not been exposed to the models during the processes of model development and test. The experiment results are promising, indicating that the proposed ANNs models have good quality in terms of the accuracy, stability and generalisation ability.

Using automated point dendrometers to analyze tropical treeline stem growth at Nevado de Colima, Mexico.

Science.gov (United States)

Biondi, Franco; Hartsough, Peter

2010-01-01

The relationship between wood growth and environmental variability at the tropical treeline of North America was investigated using automated, solar-powered sensors (a meteorological station and two dendrometer clusters) installed on Nevado de Colima, Mexico (19° 35' N, 103° 37' W, 3,760 m a.s.l.). Pure stands of Pinus hartwegii Lindl. (Mexican mountain pine) were targeted because of their suitability for tree-ring analysis in low-latitude, high-elevation, North American Monsoon environments. Stem size and hydroclimatic variables recorded at half-hour intervals were summarized on a daily timescale. Power outages, insect outbreaks, and sensor failures limited the analysis to non-consecutive months during 2001-2003 at one dendrometer site, and during 2002-2005 at the other. Combined data from the two sites showed that maximum radial growth rates occur in late spring (May), as soil temperature increases, and incoming short-wave radiation reaches its highest values. Early season (April-May) radial increment correlated directly with temperature, especially of the soil, and with solar radiation. Stem expansion at the start of the summer monsoon (June-July) was mostly influenced by moisture, and revealed a drought signal, while late season relationships were more varied.

The representation of low-level clouds during the West African monsoon in weather and climate models

Science.gov (United States)

Kniffka, Anke; Hannak, Lisa; Knippertz, Peter; Fink, Andreas

2016-04-01

The West African monsoon is one of the most important large-scale circulation features in the tropics and the associated seasonal rainfalls are crucial to rain-fed agriculture and water resources for hundreds of millions of people. However, numerical weather and climate models still struggle to realistically represent salient features of the monsoon across a wide range of scales. Recently it has been shown that substantial errors in radiation and clouds exist in the southern parts of West Africa (8°W-8°E, 5-10°N) during summer. This area is characterised by strong low-level jets associated with the formation of extensive ultra-low stratus clouds. Often persisting long after sunrise, these clouds have a substantial impact on the radiation budget at the surface and thus the diurnal evolution of the planetary boundary layer (PBL). Here we present some first results from a detailed analysis of the representation of these clouds and the associated PBL features across a range of weather and climate models. Recent climate model simulations for the period 1991-2010 run in the framework of the Year of Tropical Convection (YOTC) offer a great opportunity for this analysis. The models are those used for the latest Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, but for YOTC the model output has a much better temporal resolution, allowing to resolve the diurnal cycle, and includes diabatic terms, allowing to much better assess physical reasons for errors in low-level temperature, moisture and thus cloudiness. These more statistical climate model analyses are complemented by experiments using ICON (Icosahedral non-hydrostatic general circulation model), the new numerical weather prediction model of the German Weather Service and the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. ICON allows testing sensitivities to model resolution and numerical schemes. These model simulations are validated against (re-)analysis data, satellite observations (e.g. CM SAF cloud and

Seasonal, annual and inter-annual features of turbulence parameters over the tropical station Pune (18°32' N, 73°51' E observed with UHF wind profiler

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

N. Singh

2008-11-01

Full Text Available The present study is specifically focused on the seasonal, annual and inter-annual variations of the refractive index structure parameter (Cn2 using three years of radar observations. Energy dissipation rates (ε during different seasons for a particular year are also computed over a tropical station, Pune. Doppler spectral width measurements made by the Wind Profiler, under various atmospheric conditions, are utilized to estimate the turbulence parameters. The refractive index structure parameter varies from 10−17.5 to 10−13 m−2/3 under clear air to precipitation conditions in the height region of 1.05 to 10.35 km. During the monsoon months, observed Cn2 values are up to 1–2 orders of magnitude higher than those during pre-monsoon and post-monsoon seasons. Spectral width correction for various non-turbulent spectral broadenings such as beam broadening and shear broadening are made in the observed spectral width for reliable estimation of ε under non-precipitating conditions. It is found that in the lower tropospheric height region, values of ε are in the range of 10−6 to 10−3 m2 s−3. In summer and monsoon seasons the observed values of ε are larger than those in post-monsoon and winter seasons in the lower troposphere. A comparison of Cn2 observed with the wind profiler and that estimated using Radio Sonde/Radio Wind (RS/RW data of nearby Met station Chikalthana has been made for the month of July 2003.

Importance of monsoon rainfall in mass fluxes of filtered and unfiltered mercury in Gwangyang Bay, Korea

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jang, Jiyi; Han, Seunghee

2011-01-01

We investigated the effects of the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM), which brings approximately half of Korea's annual rainfall in July, on the concentration and particle-water partitioning, and sources of Hg in coastal waters. Surface seawater samples were collected from eight sites in Gwangyang Bay, Korea, during the monsoon (July, 2009) and non-monsoon dry (April and November, 2009) seasons and the concentrations of suspended particulate matter, chlorophyll-a, and unfiltered and filtered Hg were determined. We found significant (p 0.05) between the monsoon (459 ± 141 pmol g -1 ) and the dry season (346 ± 30 pmol g -1 ), which resulted in decreased particle-water partition coefficients of Hg in the monsoon season compared to the values in the dry season: 5.7 ± 0.1 in April, 5.3 ± 0.1 in July, and 5.8 ± 0.1 in November. The annual Hg input to Gwangyang Bay was estimated at 64 ± 6.6 mol yr -1 and 27 ± 1.9 mol yr -1 for unfiltered and filtered Hg, respectively. The Hg discharged from rivers was a major source of Hg in Gwangyang Bay: the river input contributed 83 ± 13% of total input of unfiltered and 73 ± 6.0% of filtered Hg. On a monthly basis, unfiltered Hg input was 17 ± 11 mol month -1 in the monsoon season and 3.2 ± 0.70 mol month -1 in the dry season, while filtered Hg input was 7.1 ± 4.1 mol month -1 in the monsoon and 1.3 ± 0.26 mol month -1 in the dry. Consequently, the EASM resulted in an unfiltered Hg input 5.3 times greater than the mean dry month input and a filtered Hg input 5.5 times greater than the mean dry month input, which is mainly attributable to enhanced river water discharge during the monsoon season. - Research Highlights: → Filtered mercury concentration increased in the monsoon month in coastal water. → The monsoon rain increased unfiltered Hg input 5.5 times greater than the dry month. → The monsoon rain increased filtered Hg input 5.3 times greater than the dry month.

On the role of convective systems over the northwest Pacific and monsoon activity over the Indian subcontinent

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

RameshKumar, M.R.; Babu, A; Reason, C.

been examined in relation to breaks in monsoon conditions over the Indian sub-continent during contrasting monsoon years. A see-saw nature of convection between the NWP and north Indian Ocean was found during the years with excess monsoon rainfall...

Predictability experiments for the Asian summer monsoon impact of SST anomalies on interannual and intraseasonal variability

CERN Document Server

Molteni, F; Ferranti, L; Slingo, J M

2003-01-01

The effects of SST anomalies on the interannual and intraseasonal variability of the Asian summer monsoon have been studied by multivariate statistical analyses of 850-hPa wind and rainfall fields simulated in a set of ensemble integrations of the ECMWF atmospheric GCM, referred to as the PRISM experiments. The simulations used observed SSTs (PRISM-O), covering 9 years characterised by large variations of the ENSO phenomenon in the 1980's and the early 1990's. A parallel set of simulations was also performed with climatological SSTs (PRISM-C), thus enabling the influence of SST forcing on the modes of interannual and intraseasonal variability to be investigated. As in observations, the model's interannual variability is dominated by a zonally-oriented mode which describes the north-south movement of the tropical convergence zone (TCZ). This mode appears to be independent of SST forcing and its robustness between the PRISM-O and PRISM-C simulations suggests that it is driven by internal atmospheric dynamics. O...

Why is Bay of Bengal warmer than Arabian Sea during the summer monsoon?

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Shenoi, S.S.C.; Shankar, D.; Shetye, S.R.

the summer monsoon. In the Arabian Sea, the winds associated with the summer monsoon are stronger and favour the transfer of heat to deeper layers owing to overturning and turbulent mixing. In contrast, the weaker winds over the bay force a relatively...

Interactions Between Asian Air Pollution and Monsoon System: South Asia (ROSES-2014 ACMAP)

Science.gov (United States)

Pan, Xiaohua; Chin, Mian; Tao, Zhining; Kim, Dongchul; Bian, Huisheng; Kucsera, Tom

2018-01-01

Asia's rapid economic growth over the past several decades has brought a remarkable increase in air pollution levels in that region. High concentrations of aerosols (also known as particulate matter or PM) from pollution sources pose major health hazards to half of the world population in Asia including South Asia. How do pollution and dust aerosols regulate the monsoon circulation and rainfall via scattering and absorbing solar radiation, changing the atmospheric heating rates, and modifying the cloud properties? We conducted a series of regional model experiments with NASA-Unified Weather Research and Forecast (NUWRF) regional model with coupled aerosol-chemistry-radiation-microphysics processes over South Asia for winter, pre-monsoon, and monsoon seasons to address this question. This study investigates the worsening air quality problem in South Asia by focusing on the interactions between pollution and South Asian monsoon, not merely focusing on the increase of pollutant emissions.

Relationship between summer monsoon rainfall and cyclogenesis ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

relationship between Indian Ocean Dipole Mode. Index (IODMI) and the ... 2013) in the cyclogenesis over north Indian Ocean ..... Indian summer monsoon; J. Climate 17 3141–3155. ... Murakami H, Wang B and Kitoh A 2011 Future change.

International Conference on Aerosols, Clouds and the Indian Monsoon

Science.gov (United States)

Singh, Ramesh P.; Tare, Vinod; Tripathi, S. N.

2005-06-01

In recent years, dense haze and fog problems in the northern parts of India have affected the 460 million people living in the Indo-Gangetic basin. Substantial Indian research activities related to aerosols, clouds, and monsoon are taking place in the central and southern parts of India. To attract attention to the problems, a three-day International Conference on Aerosols, Clouds and Indian Monsoon was recently held at the Indian Institute of Technology, Kanpur, in the central part of the Indo-Gangetic basin. About 120 delegates from India, Germany, Greece, Japan, Taiwan, and the United States attended the conference.

The value of C sub(e) for the Arabian Sea during summer monsoon

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Rao, A.S.; Sadhuram, Y.; Krishna, V.V.G.

We estimate, from the moisture budget the bulk aerodynamic coefficient for latent heat flux (C sub(e)) during the monsoon season over the central Arabian Sea. The average value of C sub(e) under active monsoon conditions was found to be 2.25 x 10...

Diagnosis of the Asian summer monsoon variability and the climate prediction of monsoon precipitation via physical decomposition

Science.gov (United States)

Lim, Young-Kwon

This study investigates the space-time evolution of the dominant modes that constitute the Asian summer monsoon (ASM), and, as an ultimate goal, the climate prediction of the ASM rainfall. Precipitation and other synoptic variables during the prominent life cycle of the ASM (May 21 to September 17) are used to show the detailed features of dominant modes, which are identified as the seasonal cycle, the ISO defined by the 40--50 day intraseasonal oscillation including the Madden-Julian oscillation, and the El Nino mode. The present study reveals that the ISO is the second largest component of the ASM rainfall variation. Correlation analysis indicates that ISO explains a larger fraction of the variance of the observed precipitation (without climatology) than the ENSO mode. The dominant ISO signal faithfully explains the northward propagation of the ISO toward the Asian continent causing intraseasonal active/break periods. The interannual variation of the ISO strength suggests that the ENSO exerts some influence on the ISO. The composite convective ISO anomaly and Kelvin-Rossby wave response over the Indian Ocean shows that the ISO tends to be stronger during the early stage of the ASM than normal in El Nino (La Nina) years, indicating greater (smaller) possibility of ISO-related extreme rainfall over India, Bangladesh, and the Bay of Bengal. The ENSO mode reveals that the following factors affect the evolution of the ASM system in El Nino (La Nina) years. (1) The anomalous sea surface temperature and sea level pressure over the Indian Ocean during the early stage of the ASM weaken (enhance) the meridional pressure gradient. (2) As a result, the westerly jet and the ensuing moisture transport toward India and the Bay of Bengal become weak (strong) and delayed (expedited), providing a less (more) favorable condition for regional monsoon onsets. (3) The Walker circulation anomaly results in an enhanced subsidence (ascent) and drought (flood) over the Maritime continent

Organized convection over southwest peninsular India during the pre-monsoon season

Science.gov (United States)

Sreelekha, P. N.; Babu, C. A.

2018-03-01

The paper addresses observational aspects of widespread rain associated with the organized convection that forms over the southwest peninsular India during the pre-monsoon season. The evolution of the cloud band over the equatorial region, its northward propagation, development of cross equatorial flow near the Somalia coast, and appearance of equatorial westerly wind resemble closely to that of the monsoon organized convection. Low-level convergence, cyclonic vorticity, and ascending motion are other major characteristics of the cloud bands associated with the pre-monsoon organized convection which exhibits similarity with that of monsoon. The ascending motion plays vital role on the formation of cloud band that produces widespread rainfall persisting for more than a week. The vertical shear of meridional winds is found to co-exist with precipitation over the Arabian Sea off the southwest peninsular India. The velocity potential values derived from the winds at 850 and 200 hPa levels confirm the rising motion on the basis of low-level convergence and upper level divergence. Also, shifting of ascending limb of the local Hadley circulation to the north of the equator is observed during the days of the presence of organized convection over the southwest peninsular region. Noticeable shift in the Walker circulation rising limb is also identified during the same time.

Transport pathways of CO in the African upper troposphere during the monsoon season: a study based upon the assimilation of spaceborne observations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

B. Barret

2008-06-01

Full Text Available The transport pathways of carbon monoxide (CO in the African Upper Troposphere (UT during the West African Monsoon (WAM is investigated through the assimilation of CO observations by the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS in the MOCAGE Chemistry Transport Model (CTM. The assimilation setup, based on a 3-D First Guess at Assimilation Time (3-D-FGAT variational method is described. Comparisons between the assimilated CO fields and in situ airborne observations from the MOZAIC program between Europe and both Southern Africa and Southeast Asia show an overall good agreement around the lowermost pressure level sampled by MLS (~215 hPa. The 4-D assimilated fields averaged over the month of July 2006 have been used to determine the main dynamical processes responsible for the transport of CO in the African UT. The studied period corresponds to the second AMMA (African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analyses aircraft campaign. At 220 hPa, the CO distribution is characterized by a latitudinal maximum around 5° N mostly driven by convective uplift of air masses impacted by biomass burning from Southern Africa, uplifted within the WAM region and vented predominantly southward by the upper branch of the winter hemisphere Hadley cell. Above 150 hPa, the African CO distribution is characterized by a broad maximum over northern Africa. This maximum is mostly controlled by the large scale UT circulation driven by the Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM and characterized by the Asian Monsoon Anticyclone (AMA centered at 30° N and the Tropical Easterly Jet (TEJ on the southern flank of the anticyclone. Asian pollution uplifted to the UT over large region of Southeast Asia is trapped within the AMA and transported by the anticyclonic circulation over Northeast Africa. South of the AMA, the TEJ is responsible for the tranport of CO-enriched air masses from India and Southeast Asia over Africa. Using the high time resolution provided by the 4-D assimilated fields, we give evidence

Impact assessment of El Nino and La Nina episodes on local/regional monsoon rainfall in India

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Singh, Sureuder; Rao, V.U.M.; Shigh, Diwan

2002-08-01

Large scale atmospheric circulation's and climatic anomalies have been shown to have a significant impact on seasonal weather over many parts of the world. In the present paper an attempt has been made to examine regional monsoon dynamics in relation with El Nino and La Nina episodes. The investigation was earned out for the meteorological sub- division's comprising the areas of Haryana, Delhi and Chandigarh in India. The monthly monsoon rainfall data of different locations in the region and corresponding data on El Nino and La Nina episodes for the period of 30 years (1970-99) were used for this investigation. During the El Nino episodes, various locations experienced excess rainfall in monsoon ranged between 11 and 22 percent. Under the influence of La Nina episodes, the probability of excess monsoon rainfall at different locations in the sub-division ranged between 13 and 25 percent. However, many locations viz., Hisar, Bhiwani, Gurgaon, Delhi and Chandigarh received deficient monsoon rainfall which was contrary to the global belief of the association between SST anomalies and rainfall distribution. No significant association was observed between El Nino and La Nina and monsoon rainfall at different locations in the entire sub-division. However, there was a strong relationship between these SST anomalies and all India monsoon rainfall over the period under study (1970-99). (author)

Clouds vertical properties over the Northern Hemisphere monsoon regions from CloudSat-CALIPSO measurements

Science.gov (United States)

Das, Subrata Kumar; Golhait, R. B.; Uma, K. N.

2017-01-01

The CloudSat spaceborne radar and Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO) space-borne lidar measurements, provide opportunities to understand the intriguing behavior of the vertical structure of monsoon clouds. The combined CloudSat-CALIPSO data products have been used for the summer season (June-August) of 2006-2010 to present the statistics of cloud macrophysical (such as cloud occurrence frequency, distribution of cloud top and base heights, geometrical thickness and cloud types base on occurrence height), and microphysical (such as ice water content, ice water path, and ice effective radius) properties of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) monsoon region. The monsoon regions considered in this work are the North American (NAM), North African (NAF), Indian (IND), East Asian (EAS), and Western North Pacific (WNP). The total cloud fraction over the IND (mostly multiple-layered cloud) appeared to be more frequent as compared to the other monsoon regions. Three distinctive modes of cloud top height distribution are observed over all the monsoon regions. The high-level cloud fraction is comparatively high over the WNP and IND. The ice water content and ice water path over the IND are maximum compared to the other monsoon regions. We found that the ice water content has little variations over the NAM, NAF, IND, and WNP as compared to their macrophysical properties and thus give an impression that the regional differences in dynamics and thermodynamics properties primarily cause changes in the cloud frequency or coverage and only secondary in the cloud ice properties. The background atmospheric dynamics using wind and relative humidity from the ERA-Interim reanalysis data have also been investigated which helps in understanding the variability of the cloud properties over the different monsoon regions.

Bacterioplankton activity in the surface waters of the Arabian Sea during and after the 1994 SW monsoon

Science.gov (United States)

Pomroy, Alan; Joint, Ian

1999-03-01

Bacterial biomass and production were measured on two cruises to the northwestern Arabian Sea in 1994; the first cruise took place towards the end of the SW monsoon in September, and the second cruise during the inter-monsoon period in November and December. Although phytoplankton production was significantly higher during the monsoon, bacterial numbers showed little difference. Bacteria were most abundant in the euphotic zone and highest bacterial numbers were measured during the monsoon period in the Gulf of Oman and the shelf waters off southern Oman; in these regions, numbers ranged from 0.9 to 1.6×10 9 bacteria l -1. On both cruises, bacteria were less abundant in the euphotic zone of the central Arabian Sea and typically ca 0.8×10 9 cells l -1 were present. The majority of bacteria (80-95%) were small cocci that were larger (median diameter 0.40 μm) during the monsoon period than the inter-monsoon, when the cells had a diameter of 0.36 μm; there was no comparable change in cell dimensions of bacteria present as rods. Bacterial production was measured by the incorporation of 3H-thymidine and 3H-leucine. On both cruises, uptake rates were highest on the Omani shelf and decreased offshore. In the central Arabian Sea, thymidine incorporation rates were similar in the monsoon and inter-monsoon periods, but higher rates of leucine incorporation were measured during the monsoon period. Bacterial production was a relatively small proportion of phytoplankton production in both periods sampled; bacterial production was equivalent to between 10 and 30% of the daily primary production in the Arabian Sea.

Late Pleistocene and Holocene Hydroclimate Variability in the Tropical Andes from Alpine Lake Sediments, Cordillera de Mérida, Venezuela

Science.gov (United States)

Larsen, D. J.; Abbott, M. B.; Polissar, P. J.

2014-12-01

The tropics play a major role in the global hydrologic cycle and changes to tropical rainfall patterns have critical implications for water resources and ecosystem dynamics over large geographic scales. In tropical South America, late Pleistocene and Holocene precipitation variability has been documented in geologic records and associated with numerous external and internal variables, including changes in summer insolation, South American summer monsoon strength, Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures, continental moisture recycling, and other climate processes. However, there are few records from the northern hemisphere tropical Americas, a key region for understanding interhemispheric linkages and the drivers of tropical hydroclimate variability. Here, we present a ~13 ka record of coupled hydroclimate and environmental changes from Laguna Brava, a small (~0.07 km2), hydrologically closed lake basin situated at 2400 m asl in the Cordillera de Mérida, Venezuela. Sediment cores collected from varying water depths and proximity to shore are placed in a chronologic framework using radiocarbon ages from terrestrial macrofossils, and analyzed for a suite of physical, bulk geochemical, and stable isotopic parameters. Compound specific hydrogen isotope (D/H) measurements of terrestrial plant waxes (long-chain n-alkanes) show a sharp increase in the late Pleistocene, followed by a long-term trend toward more negative values that suggest a ~20‰ decrease in the D/H ratios of South American tropical precipitation during the Holocene. This pattern is consistent in sign and magnitude to other South American precipitation reconstructions from both hemispheres, indicating interhemispheric similarities in tropical hydroclimate variability. Superimposed on this continent-scale trend are changes in moisture balance and environmental conditions in the Venezuelan Andes. We reconstruct these parameters at Laguna Brava at multidecadal and centennial resolution and evaluate this

Niger River Discharge and the Connection to the West African Monsoon Over the Last 25 kyr

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Patten, J.; Marcantonio, F.; Slowey, N. C.; Schmidt, M. W.; Parker, A. O.; Thomas, D. J.

2016-12-01

The intensity of the West African monsoon is directly tied to the shifting of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone and global-scale climate variability. As the West African monsoon varies through time, it affects the precipitation that occurs within the Niger River basin and the Niger River's discharge into the eastern equatorial Atlantic Ocean. The accumulation of marine sediments on the continental slope offshore of the Niger Delta reflects these processes. We seek to better understand how related environmental processes have varied as climate and sea level changed during the latter part of the last glacial-interglacial cycle. Here we present results from our ongoing investigation of sediments collected offshore of the Niger Delta that reflect such changes. The concentrations of 230Th, 232Th, and 234U in the sediments have been measured and combined with ages from radiocarbon dates and planktonic foraminiferal δ18O stratigraphies to estimate how the rate of sediment accumulation has varied through time. This record is considered together with measurements of sediment CaCO3 content and grain-size distribution to better understand the relative importance of environmental processes that control the flux of sediments and thorium to the seafloor - scavenging by particles settling through the water column versus the transport of sediments downslope by turbidity flows. We present xs230Th-derived 232Th fluxes that we suggest approximate the amount of fine-grained detrital material delivered from the Niger River to our sites. We anticipate that the importance of these competing processes will vary as climate/sea-level change influences the flux of sediments from the Niger River and the transport of these sediments to the slope.

Large-scale overview of the summer monsoon over West Africa during the AMMA field experiment in 2006

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S. Janicot

2008-09-01

Full Text Available The AMMA (African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis program is dedicated to providing a better understanding of the West African monsoon and its influence on the physical, chemical and biological environment regionally and globally, as well as relating variability of this monsoon system to issues of health, water resources, food security and demography for West African nations. Within this framework, an intensive field campaign took place during the summer of 2006 to better document specific processes and weather systems at various key stages of this monsoon season. This campaign was embedded within a longer observation period that documented the annual cycle of surface and atmospheric conditions between 2005 and 2007. The present paper provides a large and regional scale overview of the 2006 summer monsoon season, that includes consideration of of the convective activity, mean atmospheric circulation and synoptic/intraseasonal weather systems, oceanic and land surface conditions, continental hydrology, dust concentration and ozone distribution. The 2006 African summer monsoon was a near-normal rainy season except for a large-scale rainfall excess north of 15° N. This monsoon season was also characterized by a 10-day delayed onset compared to climatology, with convection becoming developed only after 10 July. This onset delay impacted the continental hydrology, soil moisture and vegetation dynamics as well as dust emission. More details of some less-well-known atmospheric features in the African monsoon at intraseasonal and synoptic scales are provided in order to promote future research in these areas.

quantitative precipitation forecasts during the Indian Summer Monsoon

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

65

the Indian Summer Monsoon: Contiguous Rain Area (CRA) Approach ... 1Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Melbourne, Australia ... are evaluated over India using the Contiguous Rainfall Area (CRA) verification technique.

Possible Influences of Air Pollution, Dust and Sandstorms on the Indian Monsoon

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Lau, William K. M.; Kim, Kyu-Myong; Hsu, Christina N.; Holben, Brent N.

2010-01-01

In Asian monsoon countries, such as China and India, human health and safety problems caused by air pollution are becoming increasingly serious, due to the increased loading of atmospheric pollutants from waste gas emissions and from rising energy demand associated with the rapid pace of industrialization and modernization. Meanwhile, uneven distribution of monsoon rain associated with flash floods or prolonged drought, has caused major loss of human life and damage to crops and.property with devastating societal impacts. Historically, air-pollution and monsoons research are treated as separate problems. However recent studies have suggested that the two problems may be intrinsically linked and need to be studied jointly. Fundamentally, aerosols can affect precipitation through radiative effects cif suspended particles in the atmosphere (direct effect) and/or by interfering and changing: the cloud and precipitation formation processes (indirect effect). Based on their optical properties, aerosols can be classified into two types.: those that absorb solar radiation, and those that do not. Both types of aerosols scatter sunlight and reduce the amount of solar radiation from reaching the Earth's surface, causing it to cool. The surface cooling increases atmospheric stability and reduces convection potential, Absorbing aerosols, however, in addition to cooling the surface, can heat the atmosphere. The heating of the atmosphere may reduce the amount of low clouds by increased evaporation in cloud drops. The heating, however, may induce rising motion, enhance low-level moisture, convergence and, hence, increases rainfall, The latent heating from enhanced rainfall may excite feedback processes in the large-scale circulation, further amplify.the initial response to aerosol heating and producing more rain. Additionally, aerosols can increase the concentration of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), increase cloud amount and decrease coalescence and collision rates, leading to

Quaternary glaciation and hydrologic variation in the South American tropics as reconstructed from the Lake Titicaca drilling project

Science.gov (United States)

Fritz, Sherilyn C.; Baker, Paul A.; Seltzer, Geoffrey O.; Ballantyne, Ashley; Tapia, Pedro; Cheng, Hai; Edwards, R. Lawrence

2007-11-01

A 136-m-long drill core of sediments was recovered from tropical high-altitude Lake Titicaca, Bolivia-Peru, enabling a reconstruction of past climate that spans four cycles of regional glacial advance and retreat and that is estimated to extend continuously over the last 370,000 yr. Within the errors of the age model, the periods of regional glacial advance and retreat are concordant respectively with global glacial and interglacial stages. Periods of ice advance in the southern tropical Andes generally were periods of positive water balance, as evidenced by deeper and fresher conditions in Lake Titicaca. Conversely, reduced glaciation occurred during periods of negative water balance and shallow closed-basin conditions in the lake. The apparent coincidence of positive water balance of Lake Titicaca and glacial growth in the adjacent Andes with Northern Hemisphere ice sheet expansion implies that regional water balance and glacial mass balance are strongly influenced by global-scale temperature changes, as well as by precessional forcing of the South American summer monsoon.

Is the negative IOD during 2016 the reason for monsoon failure over southwest peninsular India?

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Sreelekha, P. N.; Babu, C. A.

2018-01-01

The study investigates the mechanism responsible for the deficit rainfall over southwest peninsular India during the 2016 monsoon season. Analysis shows that the large-scale variation in circulation pattern due to the strong, negative Indian Ocean Dipole phenomenon was the reason for the deficit rainfall. Significant reduction in the number of northward-propagating monsoon-organized convections together with fast propagation over the southwest peninsular India resulted in reduction in rainfall. On the other hand, their persistence for longer time over the central part of India resulted in normal rainfall. It was found that the strong convection over the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean creates strong convergence over that region. The combined effect of the sinking due to the well-developed Walker circulation originated over the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean and the descending limb of the monsoon Hadley cell caused strong subsidence over the western equatorial Indian Ocean. The tail of this large-scale sinking extended up to the southern parts of India. This hinders formation of monsoon-organized convections leading to a large deficiency of rainfall during monsoon 2016 over the southwest peninsular India.

The role of the intra-daily SST variability in the Indian monsoon variability and monsoon-ENSO-IOD relationships in a global coupled model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Terray, Pascal; Kamala, Kakitha; Masson, Sebastien; Madec, Gurvan [Universite Pierre et Marie Curie, LOCEAN/IPSL, CNRS/IRD/UPMC/MNHN, Paris Cedex 05 (France); Sahai, A.K. [Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune (India); Luo, Jing-Jia; Yamagata, Toshio [RIGC, Yokohama (Japan)

2012-08-15

The impact of diurnal SST coupling and vertical oceanic resolution on the simulation of the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) and its relationships with El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events are studied through the analysis of four integrations of a high resolution Coupled General Circulation Model (CGCM), but with different configurations. The only differences between the four integrations are the frequency of coupling between the ocean and atmosphere for the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) parameter (2 vs. 24 h coupling) and/or the vertical oceanic resolution (31 vs. 301 levels) in the CGCM. Although the summer mean tropical climate is reasonably well captured with all the configurations of the CGCM and is not significantly modified by changing the frequency of SST coupling from once to twelve per day, the ISM-ENSO teleconnections are rather poorly simulated in the two simulations in which SST is exchanged only once per day, independently of the vertical oceanic resolution used in the CGCM. Surprisingly, when 2 h SST coupling is implemented in the CGCM, the ISM-ENSO teleconnection is better simulated, particularly, the complex lead-lag relationships between the two phenomena, in which a weak ISM occurs during the developing phase of an El Nino event in the Pacific, are closely resembling the observed ones. Evidence is presented to show that these improvements are related to changes in the characteristics of the model's El Nino which has a more realistic evolution in its developing and decaying phases, a stronger amplitude and a shift to lower frequencies when a 2-hourly SST coupling strategy is implemented without any significant changes in the basic state of the CGCM. As a consequence of these improvements in ENSO variability, the lead relationships between Indo-Pacific SSTs and ISM rainfall resemble the observed patterns more closely, the ISM-ENSO teleconnection is strengthened during boreal summer and ISM rainfall power spectrum

Nutrient Removal Vis-à-Vis Change in Partial Pressure of CO2 During Post-Monsoon Season in a Tropical Lentic and Lotic Aquatic Body: A Comparative Study

Science.gov (United States)

Bhattacharyya, Sourav; Chanda, Abhra; Das, Sourav; Akhand, Anirban; Pattanaik, Suchismita; Choudhury, S. B.; Dutta, Dibyendu; Hazra, Sugata

2018-04-01

The rate of nutrient removal and changes in pCO2 (water) were compared between a lentic aquaculture pond [East Kolkata Wetlands (EKW), India] and a lotic estuarine system [Diamond Harbor (DH) in Hugli Estuary, India] during the post-monsoon season (experiencing a similar tropical climate) by means of ex situ microcosm experiment. Though the DH waters were found to be substantial source of CO2 towards atmosphere and EKW waters to be sink for CO2 (according to the initial concentration of CO2), the eight consecutive days microcosm experiment revealed that the nutrient removal and pCO2 reduction efficiency were significantly higher in DH (ΔpCO2—90%) compared to EKW (ΔpCO2—78%). Among the five nutrients studied [dissolved nitrate-nitrogen (NO3-N), dissolved ammonium nitrogen (NH4-N), silicate, phosphate and iron], dissolved NO3-N followed by NH4-N was the most utilized in both EKW and DH. Except silicate, the other nutrients reduced to 78-91% in EKW and 84-99% in DH samples of their initial concentrations. Chlorophyll-a concentration steadily depleted in EKW ( 68-26 mg m-3) during the experiment indicating intense zooplankton grazing, whereas in DH it increased rapidly ( 3.4-23 mg m-3) with decreasing pCO2 (water). The present observations further indicated that regular flushing of EKW aquaculture ponds is required to avoid stagnation of water column which would enhance the zooplankton grazing and hamper the primary production of an otherwise sink of CO2. In DH, controlled freshwater discharge from Farakka and reduction of untreated organic waste might allow the existing phytoplankton community to enhance their photosynthetic activity.

African monsoon multidisciplinary analysis - An international research project and field campaign

OpenAIRE

Redelsperger, J. L.; Thorncroft, C. D.; Diedhiou, Arona; Lebel, Thierry; Parker, D. J.; Polcher, J.

2006-01-01

African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA) is an international project to improve our knowledge and understanding of the West African monsoon (WAM) and its variability with an emphasis on daily-to-interannual time scales. AMMA is motivated by an interest in fundamental scientific issues and by the societal need for improved prediction of the WAM and its impacts on West African nations. Recognizing the societal need to develop strategies that reduce the socioeconomic impacts of the vari...

Tropical Atlantic Hurricanes, Easterly Waves, and West African Mesoscale Convective Systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yves K. Kouadio

2010-01-01

Full Text Available The relationship between tropical Atlantic hurricanes (Hs, atmospheric easterly waves (AEWs, and West African mesoscale convective systems (MCSs is investigated. It points out atmospheric conditions over West Africa before hurricane formation. The analysis was performed for two periods, June–November in 2004 and 2005, during which 12 hurricanes (seven in 2004, five in 2005 were selected. Using the AEW signature in the 700 hPa vorticity, a backward trajectory was performed to the African coast, starting from the date and position of each hurricane, when and where it was catalogued as a tropical depression. At this step, using the Meteosat-7 satellite dataset, we selected all the MCSs around this time and region, and tracked them from their initiation until their dissipation. This procedure allowed us to relate each of the selected Hs with AEWs and a succession of MCSs that occurred a few times over West Africa before initiation of the hurricane. Finally, a dipole in sea surface temperature (SST was observed with a positive SST anomaly within the region of H generation and a negative SST anomaly within the Gulf of Guinea. This SST anomaly dipole could contribute to enhance the continental convergence associated with the monsoon that impacts on the West African MCSs formation.

Non-linear regime shifts in Holocene Asian monsoon variability: potential impacts on cultural change and migratory patterns

Science.gov (United States)

Donges, J. F.; Donner, R. V.; Marwan, N.; Breitenbach, S. F. M.; Rehfeld, K.; Kurths, J.

2015-05-01

The Asian monsoon system is an important tipping element in Earth's climate with a large impact on human societies in the past and present. In light of the potentially severe impacts of present and future anthropogenic climate change on Asian hydrology, it is vital to understand the forcing mechanisms of past climatic regime shifts in the Asian monsoon domain. Here we use novel recurrence network analysis techniques for detecting episodes with pronounced non-linear changes in Holocene Asian monsoon dynamics recorded in speleothems from caves distributed throughout the major branches of the Asian monsoon system. A newly developed multi-proxy methodology explicitly considers dating uncertainties with the COPRA (COnstructing Proxy Records from Age models) approach and allows for detection of continental-scale regime shifts in the complexity of monsoon dynamics. Several epochs are characterised by non-linear regime shifts in Asian monsoon variability, including the periods around 8.5-7.9, 5.7-5.0, 4.1-3.7, and 3.0-2.4 ka BP. The timing of these regime shifts is consistent with known episodes of Holocene rapid climate change (RCC) and high-latitude Bond events. Additionally, we observe a previously rarely reported non-linear regime shift around 7.3 ka BP, a timing that matches the typical 1.0-1.5 ky return intervals of Bond events. A detailed review of previously suggested links between Holocene climatic changes in the Asian monsoon domain and the archaeological record indicates that, in addition to previously considered longer-term changes in mean monsoon intensity and other climatic parameters, regime shifts in monsoon complexity might have played an important role as drivers of migration, pronounced cultural changes, and the collapse of ancient human societies.

Distributional patterns of anemophilous tree pollen indicating the pathways of Indian monsoon through Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhi-Yong Zhang

2017-10-01

Full Text Available The distribution pattern of vegetation on Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau is fundamentally influenced by the plateau climate, which is mainly controlled by Indian monsoon during summer. The long distance transportation of pollen (mostly anemophilous taxa produced by trees on the plateau has been recorded by modern pollen samples in previous studies, and hypothesized to be a good indicator of monsoon dynamics. Here we use 270 surface pollen samples from Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau to test the distribution patterns of the anemophilous tree pollen. Meanwhile factors related to Indian monsoon affecting pollen transportation are simulated and analyzed. Results show that depositional patterns of anemophilous tree pollen, especially Abies, Pinus, Quercus and Betula are completely controlled by the pathways of Indian monsoon. This is reflected by climatic indicators of the atmospheric pressure pattern over June–July–August, by the precipitation pattern over June–July–August and by the topographic feature of the plateau. The spatial interpolation of thin plate spline results also display two depositional centers (ca. 30°N, 95°E and 30°N, 105°E of the anemophilous tree pollen. In contrast to previous conclusion that pollen distributional pattern is determined by mean annual precipitation, we argue that Indian monsoon is the essential controller because of the synchronization between timing of monsoon wind and timing of plants flowering. Our finding strongly suggests that distributional pattern of anemophilous tree pollen on the plateau is a good proxy of Indian monsoon.

Ocean-atmosphere forcing of South American tropical paleoclimate, LGM to present

Science.gov (United States)

Baker, P. A.; Fritz, S. C.; Dwyer, G. S.; Rigsby, C. A.; Silva, C. G.; Burns, S. J.

2012-12-01

Because of many recent terrestrial paleoclimatic and marine paleoceanographic records, late Quaternary South American tropical paleoclimate is as well understood as that anywhere in the world. While lessons learned from the recent instrumental record of climate are informative, this record is too short to capture much of the lower frequency variability encountered in the paleoclimate records and much of the observed paleoclimate is without modern analogue. This paleoclimate is known to be regionally variable with significant differences both north and south of the equator and between the western high Andes and eastern lowlands of the Amazon and Nordeste Brazil. Various extrinsic forcing mechanisms affected climate throughout the period, including global concentrations of GHGs, Northern Hemisphere ice sheet forcing, seasonal insolation forcing of the South American summer monsoon (SASM), millennial-scale Atlantic forcing, and Pacific forcing of the large-scale Walker circulation. The magnitude of the climate response to these forcings varied temporally, largely because of the varying amplitude of the forcing itself. For example, during the last glacial, large-amplitude north Atlantic forcing during Heinrich 1 and the LGM itself, led to wet (dry) conditions south (north) of the equator. During the Holocene, Atlantic forcing was lower amplitude, thus seasonal insolation forcing generally predominated with a weaker-than-normal SASM during the early Holocene resulting in dry conditions in the south-western tropics and wet conditions in the eastern lowlands and Nordeste; in the late Holocene seasonal insolation reached a maximum in the southern tropics and climate conditions reversed.

The impact of monsoon intraseasonal variability on renewable power generation in India

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dunning, C M; Turner, A G; Brayshaw, D J

2015-01-01

India is increasingly investing in renewable technology to meet rising energy demands, with hydropower and other renewables comprising one-third of current installed capacity. Installed wind-power is projected to increase 5-fold by 2035 (to nearly 100GW) under the International Energy Agency's New Policies scenario. However, renewable electricity generation is dependent upon the prevailing meteorology, which is strongly influenced by monsoon variability. Prosperity and widespread electrification are increasing the demand for air conditioning, especially during the warm summer. This study uses multi-decadal observations and meteorological reanalysis data to assess the impact of intraseasonal monsoon variability on the balance of electricity supply from wind-power and temperature-related demand in India. Active monsoon phases are characterized by vigorous convection and heavy rainfall over central India. This results in lower temperatures giving lower cooling energy demand, while strong westerly winds yield high wind-power output. In contrast, monsoon breaks are characterized by suppressed precipitation, with higher temperatures and hence greater demand for cooling, and lower wind-power output across much of India. The opposing relationship between wind-power supply and cooling demand during active phases (low demand, high supply) and breaks (high demand, low supply) suggests that monsoon variability will tend to exacerbate fluctuations in the so-called demand-net-wind (i.e., electrical demand that must be supplied from non-wind sources). This study may have important implications for the design of power systems and for investment decisions in conventional schedulable generation facilities (such as coal and gas) that are used to maintain the supply/demand balance. In particular, if it is assumed (as is common) that the generated wind-power operates as a price-taker (i.e., wind farm operators always wish to sell their power, irrespective of price) then investors

The impact of monsoon intraseasonal variability on renewable power generation in India

Science.gov (United States)

Dunning, C. M.; Turner, A. G.; Brayshaw, D. J.

2015-06-01

India is increasingly investing in renewable technology to meet rising energy demands, with hydropower and other renewables comprising one-third of current installed capacity. Installed wind-power is projected to increase 5-fold by 2035 (to nearly 100GW) under the International Energy Agency's New Policies scenario. However, renewable electricity generation is dependent upon the prevailing meteorology, which is strongly influenced by monsoon variability. Prosperity and widespread electrification are increasing the demand for air conditioning, especially during the warm summer. This study uses multi-decadal observations and meteorological reanalysis data to assess the impact of intraseasonal monsoon variability on the balance of electricity supply from wind-power and temperature-related demand in India. Active monsoon phases are characterized by vigorous convection and heavy rainfall over central India. This results in lower temperatures giving lower cooling energy demand, while strong westerly winds yield high wind-power output. In contrast, monsoon breaks are characterized by suppressed precipitation, with higher temperatures and hence greater demand for cooling, and lower wind-power output across much of India. The opposing relationship between wind-power supply and cooling demand during active phases (low demand, high supply) and breaks (high demand, low supply) suggests that monsoon variability will tend to exacerbate fluctuations in the so-called demand-net-wind (i.e., electrical demand that must be supplied from non-wind sources). This study may have important implications for the design of power systems and for investment decisions in conventional schedulable generation facilities (such as coal and gas) that are used to maintain the supply/demand balance. In particular, if it is assumed (as is common) that the generated wind-power operates as a price-taker (i.e., wind farm operators always wish to sell their power, irrespective of price) then investors in

Impact of Tropical Volcanic Eruptions on Hadley Circulation Using a High-Resolution AGCM

KAUST Repository

Dogar, Muhammad Mubashar

2018-03-31

The direct radiative effects of volcanic eruptions resulting in solar dimming, stratospheric warming, global surface cooling and reduction in rainfall are well documented. However, eruptions also cause indirect climatic impacts that are not well understood. For example, solar dimming induced by volcanic aerosols could cause changes in tropical Hadley circulation that in turn largely affect evaporation and precipitation patterns. Therefore, understanding the sensitivity of HC to volcanism is essential, as this circulation is directly related to precipitation changes in the tropics and with other large-scale circulations. Hence, to better understand the post-eruption sensitivity of HC and associated changes in the hydrologic cycle, simulations for the El Chichón and Pinatubo tropical eruptions were conducted using a high-resolution atmospheric model (HIRAM), effectively at 25 and 50 km grid spacing. The model simulated results are then compared with observational and reanalysis products. Both the model and observational analysis show posteruption weakening, shrinking and equatorward displacement of the updraft branch of HC caused by the equatorward shift of midlatitude jets and hemispheric land-sea thermal gradient. The Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) is tightly coupled to the rising branch of HC, hence, post-eruption weakening and equatorward displacement of HC cause weakening of ITCZ that adversely affects rainfall distribution in the monsoon-fed regions, especially the South Asian and African tropical rain-belt regions. The modelproduced post-eruption distribution of cloud contents suggests a southward shift of ITCZ. The HIRAM results are largely in agreement with the reanalysis, observations and previous studies indicating that this model performs reasonably well in reproducing the global and regional-scale dynamic changes caused by volcanic radiative forcing.

Impact of Tropical Volcanic Eruptions on Hadley Circulation Using a High-Resolution AGCM

KAUST Repository

Dogar, Muhammad Mubashar

2018-01-01

The direct radiative effects of volcanic eruptions resulting in solar dimming, stratospheric warming, global surface cooling and reduction in rainfall are well documented. However, eruptions also cause indirect climatic impacts that are not well understood. For example, solar dimming induced by volcanic aerosols could cause changes in tropical Hadley circulation that in turn largely affect evaporation and precipitation patterns. Therefore, understanding the sensitivity of HC to volcanism is essential, as this circulation is directly related to precipitation changes in the tropics and with other large-scale circulations. Hence, to better understand the post-eruption sensitivity of HC and associated changes in the hydrologic cycle, simulations for the El Chichón and Pinatubo tropical eruptions were conducted using a high-resolution atmospheric model (HIRAM), effectively at 25 and 50 km grid spacing. The model simulated results are then compared with observational and reanalysis products. Both the model and observational analysis show posteruption weakening, shrinking and equatorward displacement of the updraft branch of HC caused by the equatorward shift of midlatitude jets and hemispheric land-sea thermal gradient. The Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) is tightly coupled to the rising branch of HC, hence, post-eruption weakening and equatorward displacement of HC cause weakening of ITCZ that adversely affects rainfall distribution in the monsoon-fed regions, especially the South Asian and African tropical rain-belt regions. The modelproduced post-eruption distribution of cloud contents suggests a southward shift of ITCZ. The HIRAM results are largely in agreement with the reanalysis, observations and previous studies indicating that this model performs reasonably well in reproducing the global and regional-scale dynamic changes caused by volcanic radiative forcing.

Atmospheric water budget over the South Asian summer monsoon region

Science.gov (United States)

Unnikrishnan, C. K.; Rajeevan, M.

2018-04-01

High resolution hybrid atmospheric water budget over the South Asian monsoon region is examined. The regional characteristics, variability, regional controlling factors and the interrelations of the atmospheric water budget components are investigated. The surface evapotranspiration was created using the High Resolution Land Data Assimilation System (HRLDAS) with the satellite-observed rainfall and vegetation fraction. HRLDAS evapotranspiration shows significant similarity with in situ observations and MODIS satellite-observed evapotranspiration. Result highlights the fundamental importance of evapotranspiration over northwest and southeast India on atmospheric water balance. The investigation shows that the surface net radiation controls the annual evapotranspiration over those regions, where the surface evapotranspiration is lower than 550 mm. The rainfall and evapotranspiration show a linear relation over the low-rainfall regions (forcing (like surface net radiation). The lead and lag correlation of water budget components show that the water budget anomalies are interrelated in the monsoon season even up to 4 months lead. These results show the important regional interrelation of water budget anomalies on south Asian monsoon.

Monsoon wind and maritime trade: A case study of historical evidence from Orissa, India

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Tripati, S.; Raut, L.N.

Monsoon plays a predominant role in the daily life of the people of South Asia. The use of monsoon wind in the Indian Ocean for maritime trade was a boon to the sailing ships to reach overseas countries. It is believed that Hippalus discovered...

Residual estuarine circulation in the Mandovi, a monsoonal estuary: A three-dimensional model study

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Vijith, V.; Shetye, S.R.; Baetens, K.; Luyten, P.; Michael, G.S.

-dependence is forced by the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) and hence the estuary is referred to as a monsoonal estuary. In this paper, we use a three-dimensional, open source, hydrodynamic, numerical model to reproduce the observed annual salinity field in the Mandovi. We...

Dynamics and Composition of the Asian Summer Monsoon Anticyclone

Science.gov (United States)

Gottschaldt, K. D.; Schlager, H.; Baumann, R.; Bozem, H.; Cai, D. S.; Eyring, V.; Hoor, P. M.; Graf, P.; Joeckel, P.; Jurkat, T.; Voigt, C.; Grewe, V.; Zahn, A.; Ziereis, H.

2017-12-01

This study places trace gas observations in the upper-tropospheric Asian summer monsoon anticyclone (ASMA) obtained with the HALO research aircraft during the ESMVal campaign into the context of regional, intra-annual variability by hindcasts with the EMAC model. The simulations demonstrate that tropospheric trace gas profiles in the monsoon season are distinct from the rest of the year. Air uplifted from the lower troposphere to the tropopause layer dominates the eastern part of the ASMA's interior, while the western part is characterized by subsidence down to the mid-troposphere. Soluble compounds are being washed out when uplifted by convection in the eastern part, where lightning simultaneously replenishes reactive nitrogen in the upper troposphere. Net photochemical ozone production is significantly enhanced in the ASMA, contrasted by an ozone depleting regime in the mid-troposphere and more neutral conditions in autumn and winter. An analysis of multiple monsoon seasons in the simulation shows that stratospherically influenced tropopause layer air is regularly entrained at the eastern ASMA flank, and then transported in the southern fringe around the interior region. Observed and simulated tracer-tracer relations reflect photochemical O3 production, as well as in-mixing from the lower troposphere and the tropopause layer. The simulation additionally shows entrainment of clean air from the equatorial region by northerly winds at the western ASMA flank. Although the in situ measurements were performed towards the end of summer, the main ingredients needed for their interpretation are present throughout the monsoon season.Subseasonal dynamical instabilities of the ASMA effectively overcome horizontal transport barriers, occur quite frequently, and are of paramount importance for the trace gas composition of the ASMA and its outflow into regions around the world.

Tropical Indo-Pacific hydroclimate response to North Atlantic forcing during the last deglaciation as recorded by a speleothem from Sumatra, Indonesia

Science.gov (United States)

Wurtzel, Jennifer B.; Abram, Nerilie J.; Lewis, Sophie C.; Bajo, Petra; Hellstrom, John C.; Troitzsch, Ulrike; Heslop, David

2018-06-01

Abrupt changes in Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation are known to have affected the strength of the Indian and Asian Monsoons during glacial and deglacial climate states. However, there is still much uncertainty around the hydroclimate response of the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool (IPWP) region to abrupt climate changes in the North Atlantic. Many studies suggest a mean southward shift in the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) in the IPWP region during phases of reduced Atlantic meridional overturning, however, existing proxies have seasonal biases and conflicting responses, making it difficult to determine the true extent of North Atlantic forcing in this climatically important region. Here we present a precisely-dated, high-resolution record of eastern Indian Ocean hydroclimate variability spanning the last 16 ky (thousand years) from δ18O measurements in an aragonite-calcite speleothem from central Sumatra. This represents the western-most speleothem record from the IPWP region. Precipitation arrives year-round at this site, with the majority sourced from the local tropical eastern Indian Ocean and two additional long-range seasonal sources associated with the boreal and austral summer monsoons. The Sumatran speleothem demonstrates a clear deglacial structure that includes 18O enrichment during the Younger Dryas and 18O depletion during the Bølling-Allerød, similar to the pattern seen in speleothems of the Asian and Indian monsoon realms. The speleothem δ18O changes at this site are best explained by changes in rainfall amount and changes in the contributions from different moisture pathways. Reduced rainfall in Sumatra during the Younger Dryas is most likely driven by reductions in moisture transport along the northern or southern monsoon transport pathways to Sumatra. Considered with other regional proxies, the record from Sumatra suggests the response of the IPWP to North Atlantic freshwater forcing is not solely driven by southward shifts of the

Using Automated Point Dendrometers to Analyze Tropical Treeline Stem Growth at Nevado de Colima, Mexico

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Franco Biondi

2010-06-01

Full Text Available The relationship between wood growth and environmental variability at the tropical treeline of North America was investigated using automated, solar-powered sensors (a meteorological station and two dendrometer clusters installed on Nevado de Colima, Mexico (19° 35’ N, 103° 37’ W, 3,760 m a.s.l.. Pure stands of Pinus hartwegii Lindl. (Mexican mountain pine were targeted because of their suitability for tree-ring analysis in low-latitude, high-elevation, North American Monsoon environments. Stem size and hydroclimatic variables recorded at half-hour intervals were summarized on a daily timescale. Power outages, insect outbreaks, and sensor failures limited the analysis to non-consecutive months during 2001–2003 at one dendrometer site, and during 2002–2005 at the other. Combined data from the two sites showed that maximum radial growth rates occur in late spring (May, as soil temperature increases, and incoming short-wave radiation reaches its highest values. Early season (April–May radial increment correlated directly with temperature, especially of the soil, and with solar radiation. Stem expansion at the start of the summer monsoon (June–July was mostly influenced by moisture, and revealed a drought signal, while late season relationships were more varied.

Predicting Indian Summer Monsoon onset through variations of surface air temperature and relative humidity

Science.gov (United States)

Stolbova, Veronika; Surovyatkina, Elena; Kurths, Jurgen

2015-04-01

Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) rainfall has an enormous effect on Indian agriculture, economy, and, as a consequence, life and prosperity of more than one billion people. Variability of the monsoonal rainfall and its onset have a huge influence on food production, agricultural planning and GDP of the country, which on 22% is determined by agriculture. Consequently, successful forecasting of the ISM onset is a big challenge and large efforts are being put into it. Here, we propose a novel approach for predictability of the ISM onset, based on critical transition theory. The ISM onset is defined as an abrupt transition from sporadious rainfall to spatially organized and temporally sustained rainfall. Taking this into account, we consider the ISM onset as is a critical transition from pre-monsoon to monsoon, which take place in time and also in space. It allows us to suggest that before the onset of ISM on the Indian subcontinent should be areas of critical behavior where indicators of the critical transitions can be detected through an analysis of observational data. First, we identify areas with such critical behavior. Second, we use detected areas as reference points for observation locations for the ISM onset prediction. Third, we derive a precursor for the ISM onset based on the analysis of surface air temperature and relative humidity variations in these reference points. Finally, we demonstrate the performance of this precursor on two observational data sets. The proposed approach allows to determine ISM onset in advance in 67% of all considered years. Our proposed approach is less effective during the anomalous years, which are associated with weak/strong monsoons, e.g. El-Nino, La-Nina or positive Indian Ocean Dipole events. The ISM onset is predicted for 23 out of 27 normal monsoon years (85%) during the past 6 decades. In the anomalous years, we show that time series analysis in both areas during the pre-monsoon period reveals indicators whether the

The Red Sea outflow regulated by the Indian monsoon

Science.gov (United States)

Aiki, Hidenori; Takahashi, Keiko; Yamagata, Toshio

2006-08-01

To investigate why the Red Sea water overflows less in summer and more in winter, we have developed a locally high-resolution global OGCM with transposed poles in the Arabian peninsula and India. Based on a series of sensitivity experiments with different sets of idealized atmospheric forcing, the present study shows that the summer cessation of the strait outflow is remotely induced by the monsoonal wind over the Indian Ocean, in particular that over the western Arabian Sea. During the southwest monsoon (May-September), thermocline in the Gulf of Aden shoals as a result of coastal Ekman upwelling induced by the predominantly northeastward wind in the Gulf of Aden and the Arabian Sea. Because this shoaling is maximum during the southwest summer monsoon, the Red Sea water is blocked at the Bab el Mandeb Strait by upwelling of the intermediate water of the Gulf of Aden in late summer. The simulation also shows the three-dimensional evolution of the Red Sea water tongue at the mid-depths in the Gulf of Aden. While the tongue meanders, the discharged Red Sea outflow water (RSOW) (incoming Indian Ocean intermediate water (IOIW)) is always characterized by anticyclonic (cyclonic) vorticity, as suggested from the potential vorticity difference.

Interannual Variability of the Tropical Water Cycle: Capabilities in the TRMM Era and Challenges for GPM

Science.gov (United States)

Robertson, Franklin R.

2003-01-01

closely with the TMI time series, yet the PR rainfall interannual variability (and attenuation derived predominantly from reflectivity) differs even in sign. We will explore these apparent inconsistencies and detail their impact on estimates of how ENSO events perturb the tropical rainfall. We will place these results in perspective by considering requirements for precipitation accuracy for global climate variability and change studies involving ENSO, monsoon dynamics and variations, and climate model improvement and validation. The discussion will conclude with an assessment of the implications of these findings for Global Precipitation Mission (GPM) requirements.

Simulation of the anthropogenic aerosols over South Asia and their effects on Indian summer monsoon

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ji, Zhenming [Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Key Laboratory of Tibetan Environment Changes and Land Surface Processes, Beijing (China); National Climate Center, Beijing (China); Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing (China); Kang, Shichang [Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Key Laboratory of Tibetan Environment Changes and Land Surface Processes, Beijing (China); Chinese Academy of Sciences, State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science, Lanzhou (China); Zhang, Dongfeng [Shanxi Meteorological Bureau, Taiyuan (China); Zhu, Chunzi [Nanjing University of Information Science Technology, College of Atmospheric Science, Nanjing (China); Wu, Jia; Xu, Ying [National Climate Center, Beijing (China)

2011-05-15

A regional climate model coupled with a chemistry-aerosol model is employed to simulate the anthropogenic aerosols including sulfate, black carbon and organic carbon and their direct effect on climate over South Asia. The model is driven by the NCAR/NCEP re-analysis data. Multi-year simulations with half, normal and double emission fluxes are conducted. Results show that the model performs well in reproducing present climate over the region. Simulations of the aerosol optical depth and surface concentration of aerosols are also reasonable although to a less extent. The negative radiative forcing is found at the top of atmosphere and largely depended on emission concentration. Surface air temperature decreases by 0.1-0.5 C both in pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons. The range and intensity of cooling areas enlarge while aerosol emission increases. Changes in precipitation are between -25 and 25%. Different diversifications of rainfall are showed with three emission scenarios. The changes of precipitation are consistent with varieties of monsoon onset dates in pre-monsoon season. In the regions of increasing precipitation, monsoon onset is advanced and vice versa. In northeast India and Myanmar, aerosols lead the India summer monsoon onset advancing 1-2 pentads, and delaying by 1-2 pentads in central and southeast India. These changes are mainly caused by the anomaly of local Hadley circulations and enhancive precipitation. Tibetan Plateau played a crucial role in the circulation changes. (orig.)

Stratospheric Influence on Summer Monsoon and Associated Planetary Wave Breaking and Mixing in the Subtropical Tropopause Region

Science.gov (United States)

Lubis, S. W.; Nakamura, N.

2017-12-01

Previous studies have shown that the monsoonal circulation plays an important role in planetary wave breaking (PWB). The highest frequency of breaking events occurs just downstream (east) of the monsoon region in summer. PWB induces mixing of potential vorticity (PV) and hence, alter the horizontal mixing in the atmosphere. Here, the authors hypothesize that the stratospheric easterlies in the boreal summer also play a significant role in the PWB and mixing associated with the summer monsoon. If the stratospheric winds were westerly in boreal summer, the frequency of PWB would be decreased due to more waves penetrating in the stratosphere, resulting in less horizontal PWB and thus reduced mixing in the subtropical tropopause region. The hypothesis is examined by using a set of idealized moist GFDL simulations. The monsoon circulation is produced by adding a land-sea contrast with a Gaussian-shaped mountains positioned in the midlatitudes. Other key ingredients for the monsoon, including albedo, oceanic warm pool, and Q-flux, were also ideally imposed in all simulations. Our control simulation produces a summer monsoon-like circulation similar to the observation. In particular, the thermally forced monsoonal circulation forms a prominent closed upper-level anticyclone that dominates the summertime upper-level flow. Associated with this circulation is an upward-bulging tropopause that forms a large reservoir of anomalously low PV. Consistent with previous studies, the well-defined tropospheric jet lies just poleward of the upper-level anticyclone, and acts as a dynamical barrier between the low-PV reservoir over the monsoonal region and the high-PV reservoir in the extratropics. This barrier disappears just northeast of the monsoon area in the jet exit region, allowing more quasi-planetary waves to break in this region. Repetitive wave breaking further weakens the PV gradient, leading to the formation of the surf zone and stronger mixing in this region. To quantify

Impact of geographic variations of the convective and dehydration center on stratospheric water vapor over the Asian monsoon region

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K. Zhang

2016-06-01

Full Text Available The Asian monsoon region is the most prominent moisture center of water vapor in the lower stratosphere (LS during boreal summer. Previous studies have suggested that the transport of water vapor to the Asian monsoon LS is controlled by dehydration temperatures and convection mainly over the Bay of Bengal and Southeast Asia. However, there is a clear geographic variation of convection associated with the seasonal and intra-seasonal variations of the Asian monsoon circulation, and the relative influence of such a geographic variation of convection vs. the variation of local dehydration temperatures on water vapor transport is still not clear. Using satellite observations from the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS and a domain-filling forward trajectory model, we show that almost half of the seasonal water vapor increase in the Asian monsoon LS are attributable to geographic variations of convection and resultant variations of the dehydration center, of which the influence is comparable to the influence of the local dehydration temperature increase. In particular, dehydration temperatures are coldest over the southeast and warmest over the northwest Asian monsoon region. Although the convective center is located over Southeast Asia, an anomalous increase of convection over the northwest Asia monsoon region increases local diabatic heating in the tropopause layer and air masses entering the LS are dehydrated at relatively warmer temperatures. Due to warmer dehydration temperatures, anomalously moist air enters the LS and moves eastward along the northern flank of the monsoon anticyclonic flow, leading to wet anomalies in the LS over the Asian monsoon region. Likewise, when convection increases over the Southeast Asia monsoon region, dry anomalies appear in the LS. On a seasonal scale, this feature is associated with the monsoon circulation, convection and diabatic heating marching towards the northwest Asia monsoon region from June to August. The

Changes of extreme precipitation and nonlinear influence of climate variables over monsoon region in China

KAUST Repository

Gao, Tao; Wang, Huixia Judy; Zhou, Tianjun

2017-01-01

of precipitation extremes over monsoon regions in China (MRC). However, research on monsoon extremes in China and their associations with climate variables is limited. In this study, we examine the space-time variations of extreme precipitation across the MRC

Variations in some environmental characteristics including C and N stable isotopic composition of suspended organic matter in the Mandovi estuary

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Maya, M.V.; Soares, M.A.; Agnihotri, R.; Pratihary, A.K.; Karapurkar, S.; Naik, H.; Naqvi, S.W.A.

) of suspended organic matter produced/transported during the monsoon and post-monsoon seasons of year 2007 provides a baseline dataset for future isotopic studies in such type of tropical estuaries...

Rainfall variations over the Bay of Bengal and southern Tibetan Plateau and their connections with different tropical forcing during the early and middle summer

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Z.; Yang, S.

2016-12-01

Strong rainfall always occurs in the South Asia region during the summer monsoon time (May-September), especially over the Bay of Bengal (BOB) and southern Tibetan Plateau (STP). The latent heating associated with such rainfall drives large-scale circulation and further influences weather and climate anomalies over the world. Few studies have focused on the intraseasonal difference of the rainfall interannual variations. Generally, two precipitation centers appear over the BOB and STP respectively, which are corresponding to the southern and northern upward branches of the South Asian summer monsoon. Our results indicate that the interannual variability of precipitation over the BOB is consistent with that over the STP during the early summer (May-June), but it is contrary during the midsummer (July-August). In early summer, precipitation over the BOB and STP is mainly regulated by the sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in tropical eastern Pacific (corresponding to the ENSO). Warm SST anomalies in the eastern Pacific weaken upward motion and further precipitation over the BOB and STP through the modulation of zonal walker circulation. However, the tropical forcing exists over the western Maritime Continent (WMC) during midsummer, which induces the contrary variations of rainfall over the BOB and STP. Warm WMC SST anomalies lead to an anticyclone over the BOB, which is unfavourable to the BOB rainfall. While the southwesterlies at the northwest of that anticyclone favor moisture transport to the Tibetan Plateau and thus an enhancement in rainfall over the STP.

Study on the association of green house gas (CO2) with monsoon rainfall using AIRS and TRMM satellite observations

Science.gov (United States)

Singh, R. B.; Janmaijaya, M.; Dhaka, S. K.; Kumar, V.

Monsoon water cycle is the lifeline to over 60 per cent of the world's population. Throughout history, the monsoon-related calamities of droughts and floods have determined the life pattern of people. The association of Green House Gases (GHGs) particularly Carbon dioxide (CO2) with monsoon has been greatly debated amongst the scientific community in the past. The effect of CO2 on the monsoon rainfall over the Indian-Indonesian region (8-30°N, 65°-100°E) is being investigated using satellite data. The correlation coefficient (Rxy) between CO2 and monsoon is analysed. The Rxy is not significantly positive over a greater part of the study region, except a few regions. The inter-annual anomalies of CO2 is identified for playing a secondary role to influencing monsoon while other phenomenon like ENSO might be exerting a much greater influence.

Arctic and Antarctic Oscillation signatures in tropical coral proxies over the South China Sea

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D.-Y. Gong

2009-05-01

Full Text Available Arctic Oscillation (AO and Antarctic Oscillation (AAO are the leading modes of atmospheric circulation in mid-high latitudes. Previous studies have revealed that the climatic influences of the two modes are dominant in extra-tropical regions. This study finds that AO and AAO signals are also well recorded in coral proxies in the tropical South China Sea. There are significant interannual signals of AO and AAO in the strontium (Sr content, which represents the sea surface temperature (SST. Among all the seasons, the most significant correlation occurs during winter in both hemispheres: the strongest AO-Sr and AAO-Sr coral correlations occur in January and August, respectively. This study also determined that the Sr content lags behind AO and AAO by 1–3 months. Large-scale anomalies in sea level pressure and horizontal wind at 850 hPa level support the strength of AO/AAO-coral teleconnections. In addition, a comparison with oxygen isotope records from two coral sites in neighboring oceans yields significant AO and AAO signatures with similar time lags. These results help to better understand monsoon climates and their teleconnection to high-latitude climate changes.

Distribution of coccolithophores as a potential proxy in paleoceanography: The case of the Oman Sea monsoonal pattern

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Mojtahedin Elham

2015-02-01

Full Text Available High abundances of coccoliths have been observed in surface sediment samples from near the coasts of the Oman Sea in February 2011. At the end of the NE monsoon, the locally observed high Gephyrocapsa oceanica production is hypothesized to respond to local injections of nutrient-rich deep water into the surface water due to sea-surface cooling leading to convection. The most abundant coccolithophore species are G. oceanica followed by Emiliania huxleyi, Helicosphaera carteri, Calcidiscus leptoporus. Some species, such as Gephyrocapsa muellerae, Gephyrocapsa ericsonii, Umbilicosphaera sibogae, Umbellosphaera tenuis and Florisphaera profunda, are rare. The G. oceanica suggested a prevalence of upwelling conditions or high supply of nutrients in the Oman Sea (especially West Jask at the end of the NE monsoon. E. huxleyi showed low relative abundances at the end of the NE monsoon. Due to the location of the Oman Sea in low latitudes with high temperatures, we have observed low abundances of G. muellerae in the study area. Additionally, we have identified low abundances of G. ericsonii at the end of the NE monsoon. Helicosphaera carteri showed a clear negative response with decreasing amounts (relative abundances at the end of the NE monsoon. C. leptoporus, U. sibogae and U. tenuis have very low relative abundances in the NE monsoon and declined extremely at the end of the NE monsoon. F. profunda, which is known to inhabit the lower photic zone (<100 m depht was rarely observed in the samples.

Distribution of coccolithophores as a potential proxy in paleoceanography: The case of the Oman Sea monsoonal pattern

Science.gov (United States)

Mojtahedin, Elham; Hadavi, Fatemeh; Lak, Razyeh

2015-02-01

High abundances of coccoliths have been observed in surface sediment samples from near the coasts of the Oman Sea in February 2011. At the end of the NE monsoon, the locally observed high Gephyrocapsa oceanica production is hypothesized to respond to local injections of nutrient-rich deep water into the surface water due to sea-surface cooling leading to convection. The most abundant coccolithophore species are G. oceanica followed by Emiliania huxleyi, Helicosphaera carteri, Calcidiscus leptoporus. Some species, such as Gephyrocapsa muellerae, Gephyrocapsa ericsonii, Umbilicosphaera sibogae, Umbellosphaera tenuis and Florisphaera profunda, are rare. The G. oceanica suggested a prevalence of upwelling conditions or high supply of nutrients in the Oman Sea (especially West Jask) at the end of the NE monsoon. E. huxleyi showed low relative abundances at the end of the NE monsoon. Due to the location of the Oman Sea in low latitudes with high temperatures, we have observed low abundances of G. muellerae in the study area. Additionally, we have identified low abundances of G. ericsonii at the end of the NE monsoon. Helicosphaera carteri showed a clear negative response with decreasing amounts (relative abundances) at the end of the NE monsoon. C. leptoporus, U. sibogae and U. tenuis have very low relative abundances in the NE monsoon and declined extremely at the end of the NE monsoon. F. profunda, which is known to inhabit the lower photic zone (<100 m depht) was rarely observed in the samples.

Impact of West African Monsoon convective transport and lightning NOx production upon the upper tropospheric composition: a multi-model study

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H. Schlager

2010-06-01

Full Text Available Within the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA, we investigate the impact of nitrogen oxides produced by lightning (LiNOx and convective transport during the West African Monsoon (WAM upon the composition of the upper troposphere (UT in the tropics. For this purpose, we have performed simulations with 4 state-of-the-art chemistry transport models involved within AMMA, namely MOCAGE, TM4, LMDz-INCA and p-TOMCAT. The model intercomparison is complemented with an evaluation of the simulations based on both spaceborne and airborne observations. The baseline simulations show important differences between the UT CO and O3 distributions simulated by each of the 4 models when compared to measurements from the MOZAIC program and fom the Aura/MLS spaceborne sensor. We show that such model discrepancies can be explained by differences in the convective transport parameterizations and, more particularly, the altitude reached by convective updrafts (ranging between ~200–125 hPa. Concerning UT O3, the models exhibit a good agreement with the main observed features. Nevertheless the majority of models simulate low O3 concentrations compared to both MOZAIC and Aura/MLS observations south of the equator, and rather high concentrations in the Northern Hemisphere. Sensitivity studies are performed to quantify the effect of deep convective transport and the influence of LiNOx production on the UT composition. These clearly indicate that the CO maxima and the elevated O3 concentrations south of the equator are due to convective uplift of air masses impacted by Southern African biomass burning, in agreement with previous studies. Moreover, during the WAM, LiNOx from Africa are responsible for the highest UT O3 enhancements (10–20 ppbv over the tropical Atlantic between 10° S–20° N. Differences between models are primarily due to the performance of the parameterizations used to simulate lightning activity which are evaluated using spaceborne

Remote sensing for conservation of tropical moist forests: A study in Indonesia

Science.gov (United States)

Warwick-Smith, Robert Myles

The Indonesian archipelago extends in a great 6000km arc from the northern tip of Sumatra to the eastern border of Irian Jaya. It includes a wide diversity of ecosystems ranging from the floristically rich and economically important lowland tropical rain forests to the 'moss' and sub-alpine meadows of the higher mountains and from fresh-water swamp forest to the dry monsoon forest and savanna woodlands of the lesser Sunda islands. These forests are of importance for the protection of watersheds and catchment areas, for the maintenance of water supplies, and for their general and local influence upon climate. They are the habitat of a large number of rare, endangered and endemic plant and animal species; also many other birds, mammals, reptiles and insects which form a colourful, scientifically valuable and irreplaceable part of the national heritage and world genetic resources. This study examines an area of great ecological importance in Sulawesi, and an attempt is made to map a number of ecosystems in the area. Landsat multispectral imagery (1972) was the basis of the mapping and field work was completed in 1980. The satellite imagery proved to be a satisfactory mapping tool in these tropical moist forest conditions.

Mechanism of ENSO influence on the South Asian monsoon rainfall in global model simulations

Science.gov (United States)

Joshi, Sneh; Kar, Sarat C.

2018-02-01

Coupled ocean atmosphere global climate models are increasingly being used for seasonal scale simulation of the South Asian monsoon. In these models, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) evolve as coupled air-sea interaction process. However, sensitivity experiments with various SST forcing can only be done in an atmosphere-only model. In this study, the Global Forecast System (GFS) model at T126 horizontal resolution has been used to examine the mechanism of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forcing on the monsoon circulation and rainfall. The model has been integrated (ensemble) with observed, climatological and ENSO SST forcing to document the mechanism on how the South Asian monsoon responds to basin-wide SST variations in the Indian and Pacific Oceans. The model simulations indicate that the internal variability gets modulated by the SSTs with warming in the Pacific enhancing the ensemble spread over the monsoon region as compared to cooling conditions. Anomalous easterly wind anomalies cover the Indian region both at 850 and 200 hPa levels during El Niño years. The locations and intensity of Walker and Hadley circulations are altered due to ENSO SST forcing. These lead to reduction of monsoon rainfall over most parts of India during El Niño events compared to La Niña conditions. However, internally generated variability is a major source of uncertainty in the model-simulated climate.

A numerical study of the South China Sea Warm Current during winter monsoon relaxation

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Cong; Ding, Yang; Bao, Xianwen; Bi, Congcong; Li, Ruixiang; Zhang, Cunjie; Shen, Biao; Wan, Kai

2018-03-01

Using a Finite-Volume Community Ocean Model, we investigated the dynamic mechanism of the South China Sea Warm Current (SCSWC) in the northern South China Sea (NSCS) during winter monsoon relaxation. The model reproduces the mean surface circulation of the NSCS during winter, while model-simulated subtidal currents generally capture its current pattern. The model shows that the current over the continental shelf is generally southwestward, under a strong winter monsoon condition, but a northeastward counter-wind current usually develops between 50-and 100-m isobaths, when the monsoon relaxes. Model experiments, focusing on the wind relaxation process, show that sea level is elevated in the northwestern South China Sea (SCS), related to the persistent northeasterly monsoon. Following wind relaxation, a high sea level band builds up along the mid-shelf, and a northeastward current develops, having an obvious vertical barotropic structure. Momentum balance analysis indicates that an along-shelf pressure gradient provides the initial driving force for the SCSWC during the first few days following wind relaxation. The SCSWC subsequently reaches a steady quasi-geostrophic balance in the cross-shelf direction, mainly linked to sea level adjustment over the shelf. Lagrangian particle tracking experiments show that both the southwestward coastal current and slope current contribute to the northeastward movement of the SCSWC during winter monsoon relaxation.

Understanding the Unusual 2017 Monsoon and Floods in South Asia

Science.gov (United States)

Akanda, A. S.; Palash, W.; Hasan, M. A.; Nusrat, F.

2017-12-01

Driven primarily by the South Asian Monsoon, the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) river basin system collectively drains intense precipitation for an area of more than 1.5 million square kilometers during the wet summer season. Bangladesh, being the lowest riparian country in the system, experiences recurrent floods and immense suffering to its population. The 2017 monsoon season was quite unusual in terms of the characteristics of the precipitation received in the basin. The monsoon was spread out over a much larger time span (April-October) compared to the average monsoon season (June-September). Although the monsoon does not typically start until June in Bangladesh, the 2017 season started much earlier in April with unusually heavy precipitation in the Meghna basin region and caused major damage to agriculture in northeastern Bangladesh. The rainfall continued in several record-breaking pulses, compared to the typical one or two large waves. One of the largest pulses occurred in early August with very high in intensity and volume, causing ECMWF to issue a major warning about widespread flooding in Bangladesh, Northern India, and Eastern Nepal. This record flood event impacted over 40 million people in the above regions, causing major damage to life and infrastructure. Although the Brahmaputra rose above the danger level several times this season, the Ganges was unusually low, thus sparing downstream areas from disastrous floods. However, heavy precipitation continued until October, causing urban flooding in Dhaka and Chittagong - and worsening sanitation and public health conditions in southern Bangladesh - currently undergoing a terrible humanitarian crisis involving Rohingya refugees from the Myanmar. Despite marked improvement in flood forecasting systems in recent years, the 2017 floods identified critical gaps in our understanding of the flooding phenomena and limitations of dissemination in these regions. In this study, we investigate 1) the unusual

The Indian summer monsoon rainfall: interplay of coupled dynamics, radiation and cloud microphysics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

P. K. Patra

2005-01-01

Full Text Available The Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR, which has a strong connection to agricultural food production, has been less predictable by conventional models in recent times. Two distinct years 2002 and 2003 with lower and higher July rainfall, respectively, are selected to help understand the natural and anthropogenic influences on ISMR. We show that heating gradients along the meridional monsoon circulation are reduced due to aerosol radiative forcing and the Indian Ocean Dipole in 2002. An increase in the dust and biomass-burning component of the aerosols through the zonal monsoon circulation resulted in reduction of cloud droplet growth in July 2002. These conditions were opposite to those in July 2003 which led to an above average ISMR. In this study, we have utilized NCEP/NCAR reanalyses for meteorological data (e.g. sea-surface temperature, horizontal winds, and precipitable water, NOAA interpolated outgoing long-wave radiation, IITM constructed all-India rainfall amounts, aerosol parameters as observed from the TOMS and MODIS satellites, and ATSR fire count maps. Based on this analysis, we suggest that monsoon rainfall prediction models should include synoptic as well as interannual variability in both atmospheric dynamics and chemical composition.

Changes in the Asian monsoon climate during 1700-1850 induced by preindustrial cultivation.

Science.gov (United States)

Takata, Kumiko; Saito, Kazuyuki; Yasunari, Tetsuzo

2009-06-16

Preindustrial changes in the Asian summer monsoon climate from the 1700s to the 1850s were estimated with an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) using historical global land cover/use change data reconstructed for the last 300 years. Extended cultivation resulted in a decrease in monsoon rainfall over the Indian subcontinent and southeastern China and an associated weakening of the Asian summer monsoon circulation. The precipitation decrease in India was marked and was consistent with the observational changes derived from examining the Himalayan ice cores for the concurrent period. Between the 1700s and the 1850s, the anthropogenic increases in greenhouse gases and aerosols were still minor; also, no long-term trends in natural climate variations, such as those caused by the ocean, solar activity, or volcanoes, were reported. Thus, we propose that the land cover/use change was the major source of disturbances to the climate during that period. This report will set forward quantitative examination of the actual impacts of land cover/use changes on Asian monsoons, relative to the impact of greenhouse gases and aerosols, viewed in the context of global warming on the interannual, decadal, and centennial time scales.

Moisture source for summer monsoon rainfall over India

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Sadhuram, Y.; Rao, D.P.

Southwest monsoon plays a vital role in India's economy as the major income comes from agriculture. What could be the moisture source for this copious amount of rainfall over the Indian sub-continent?. This has been studied in detail and noticed...

Seasonal forecasting of Bangladesh summer monsoon rainfall using ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

In this paper, the development of a statistical forecasting method for summer ... 2008 summer monsoon rainfall based on the model were also found to be in good agreement with the ..... nificant on the basis of a one-tailed test of Student's.

Summer monsoon intraseasonal oscillation over eastern Arabian Sea

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

Significant power is seen in the 8–15-day time scale in TWV during onset and retreat of the summer ... Intraseasonal oscillation; wavelet analysis; Indian summer monsoon. J. Earth .... be caused by synoptic scale systems, in conformity with the ...

Study on coral annual banding for the investigation of Asian monsoon; Asian monsoon to sango nenrin kenkyu

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Suzuki, A. [Geological Survey of Japan, Tsukuba (Japan); Kawabata, H. [Tohoku University, Sendai (Japan)

1998-07-01

A coral skeleton is sampled at Kenya`s Malindi National Marine Park situated west of the Seychelles, and it offers information about the Afro-Asian monsoon. An X-ray profile of the specimen discloses the seasonal variation in the density of the coral skeleton. The oxygen isotopic ratio, which is generally affected by the seawater oxygen isotopic ratio composition which is dependent on the surface layer water temperature and fresh water, is found dominated, in the coral skeleton, practically by the surface layer water temperature. Accordingly, the oxygen isotopic ratio represents the seasonal and annual variations in the surface layer water temperature. It is inferred that the emergence of Ba/Ca ratio peaks in December into January reflects the presence of Ba from rivers, and there are indications that the Somali current has transported water to the coral sampling area from the Galana River which is the greatest river in Kenya. Five of the Ba/Ca ratio peaks coincide with peaks in the UV fluorescent band, which is attributed to the presence of terrigenous organic matters. The ENSO and Asian monsoon phenomena are estimated on the basis of the findings described above. 11 refs., 6 figs.

Seasonal prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall in NCEP CFSv2: forecast and predictability error

Science.gov (United States)

Pokhrel, Samir; Saha, Subodh Kumar; Dhakate, Ashish; Rahman, Hasibur; Chaudhari, Hemantkumar S.; Salunke, Kiran; Hazra, Anupam; Sujith, K.; Sikka, D. R.

2016-04-01

A detailed analysis of sensitivity to the initial condition for the simulation of the Indian summer monsoon using retrospective forecast by the latest version of the Climate Forecast System version-2 (CFSv2) is carried out. This study primarily focuses on the tropical region of Indian and Pacific Ocean basin, with special emphasis on the Indian land region. The simulated seasonal mean and the inter-annual standard deviations of rainfall, upper and lower level atmospheric circulations and Sea Surface Temperature (SST) tend to be more skillful as the lead forecast time decreases (5 month lead to 0 month lead time i.e. L5-L0). In general spatial correlation (bias) increases (decreases) as forecast lead time decreases. This is further substantiated by their averaged value over the selected study regions over the Indian and Pacific Ocean basins. The tendency of increase (decrease) of model bias with increasing (decreasing) forecast lead time also indicates the dynamical drift of the model. Large scale lower level circulation (850 hPa) shows enhancement of anomalous westerlies (easterlies) over the tropical region of the Indian Ocean (Western Pacific Ocean), which indicates the enhancement of model error with the decrease in lead time. At the upper level circulation (200 hPa) biases in both tropical easterly jet and subtropical westerlies jet tend to decrease as the lead time decreases. Despite enhancement of the prediction skill, mean SST bias seems to be insensitive to the initialization. All these biases are significant and together they make CFSv2 vulnerable to seasonal uncertainties in all the lead times. Overall the zeroth lead (L0) seems to have the best skill, however, in case of Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR), the 3 month lead forecast time (L3) has the maximum ISMR prediction skill. This is valid using different independent datasets, wherein these maximum skill scores are 0.64, 0.42 and 0.57 with respect to the Global Precipitation Climatology Project

Improved simulation of precipitation in the tropics using a modified BMJ scheme in the WRF model

Science.gov (United States)

Fonseca, R. M.; Zhang, T.; Yong, K.-T.

2015-09-01

The successful modelling of the observed precipitation, a very important variable for a wide range of climate applications, continues to be one of the major challenges that climate scientists face today. When the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used to dynamically downscale the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) over the Indo-Pacific region, with analysis (grid-point) nudging, it is found that the cumulus scheme used, Betts-Miller-Janjić (BMJ), produces excessive rainfall suggesting that it has to be modified for this region. Experimentation has shown that the cumulus precipitation is not very sensitive to changes in the cloud efficiency but varies greatly in response to modifications of the temperature and humidity reference profiles. A new version of the scheme, denoted "modified BMJ" scheme, where the humidity reference profile is more moist, was developed. In tropical belt simulations it was found to give a better estimate of the observed precipitation as given by the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B42 data set than the default BMJ scheme for the whole tropics and both monsoon seasons. In fact, in some regions the model even outperforms CFSR. The advantage of modifying the BMJ scheme to produce better rainfall estimates lies in the final dynamical consistency of the rainfall with other dynamical and thermodynamical variables of the atmosphere.

Continuous and simultaneous measurements of precipitation and vapor isotopes over two monsoon seasons during 2016-2017 in Singapore

Science.gov (United States)

Jackisch, D.; He, S.; Ong, M. R.; Goodkin, N.

2017-12-01

Water isotopes are important tracers of climate dynamics and their measurement can provide valuable insights into the relationship between isotopes and atmospheric parameters and overall convective activities. While most studies provide data on daily or even monthly time scales, high-temporal in-situ stable isotope measurements are scarce, especially in the tropics. In this study, we presented δ18O and δ2H values in precipitation and vapor continuously and simultaneously measured using laser spectroscopy in Singapore during the 2016/2017 Northeast (NE) Asian monsoon and 2017 Southwest (SW) Asian monsoon. We found that δ-values of precipitation and vapor exhibit quite different patterns during individual events, although there is a significant correlation between the δ-values of precipitation and of vapor. δ-values in precipitation during individual precipitation events show a distinct V-shape pattern, with the lowest isotope values observed in the middle of the event. However, isotopes in water vapor mostly show an L-shape and are characterized by a gradual decrease with the onset of rainfall. The difference in δ-values of precipitation and vapor is generally constant during the early stage of the events but gradually increases near the end. It is likely that vapor and precipitation are closer to equilibrium at the early stage of a rain event, but diverge at the later stages. This divergence can be largely attributed to the evaporation of raindrops. We notice a frequent drop in d-excess of precipitation, whereas d-excess in vapor increases. In addition, a significant correlation exists between outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and isotopes in both precipitation and vapor, suggesting an influence of regional convective activity.

Planetary boundary layer height over the Indian subcontinent: Variability and controls with respect to monsoon

Science.gov (United States)

Sathyanadh, Anusha; Prabhakaran, Thara; Patil, Chetana; Karipot, Anandakumar

2017-10-01

Planetary boundary layer (PBL) height characteristics over the Indian sub-continent at diurnal to seasonal scales and its controlling factors in relation to monsoon are investigated. The reanalysis (Modern Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, MERRA) PBL heights (PBLH) used for the study are validated against those derived from radiosonde observations and radio occultation air temperature and humidity profiles. The radiosonde observations include routine India Meteorological Department observations at two locations (coastal and an inland) for one full year and campaign based early afternoon radiosonde observations at six inland locations over the study region for selected days from May-September 2011. The temperature and humidity profiles from radio occultations spread over the sub-continent at irregular timings during the year 2011. The correlations and root mean square errors are in the range 0.74-0.83 and 407 m-643 m, respectively. Large pre-monsoon, monsoon and post-monsoon variations in PBL maximum height (1000 m-4000 m), time of occurrence of maximum height (11:00 LST-17:00 LST) and growth rate (100 to 400 m h- 1) are noted over the land, depending on geographical location and more significantly on the moisture availability which influences the surface sensible and latent heat fluxes. The PBLH variations associated with active-break intra-seasonal monsoon oscillations are up to 1000 m over central Indian locations. Inter relationship between the PBLH and the controlling factors, i.e. Evaporative Fraction, net radiation, friction velocity, surface Richardson number, and scalar diffusivity fraction, show significant variation between dry and wet PBL regimes, which also varies with geographical location. Evaporative fraction has dominant influence on the PBLH over the region. Enhanced entrainment during monsoon contributes to reduction in PBLH, whereas the opposite effect is noted during dry period. Linear regression, cross wavelet and

Effect of increasing greenhouse gases on Indian monsoon rainfall as downscaled from the ECHAM coupled model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Singh, S.V.; Storch, H.V.

1994-01-01

It is more or less accepted that the increasing anthropogenic gases will result in global warming through the greenhouse effect. The major influence of this will be felt in the form of ice melts and rising sea levels. The influence on regional climates like monsoons is not very clear. Since the monsoons arise due to surface heating, one would expect that global warming will lead to more vigorous monsoons. The expected change in a climate parameter can be studied by analyzing the historical data and then extrapolating in time. Alternatively, one can use the state-of-the-art coupled GCMs which are able to simulate the earth's climate with reasonable accuracy. Both methods have some limitations. The first method cannot adequately consider the nonlinearity, and the second method may not be efficient for regional scales. So that the projections can be trusted, the regional features should be well simulated. None of the current models are able to simulate the Indian monsoon satisfactorily. Therefore it is desirable to infer the expected change in monsoons from other large and near global scale features which are better simulated. This approach, which depends on the concurrent association between a large-scale modeled feature and a regional scale, is known as downscaling, after Storch et al., and is adopted here to project the Indian monsoon rainfall for the next 100 years from the ECHAM T21 coupled model

Annual monsoon rains recorded by Jurassic dunes.

Science.gov (United States)

Loope, D B; Rowe, C M; Joeckel, R M

2001-07-05

Pangaea, the largest landmass in the Earth's history, was nearly bisected by the Equator during the late Palaeozoic and early Mesozoic eras. Modelling experiments and stratigraphic studies have suggested that the supercontinent generated a monsoonal atmospheric circulation that led to extreme seasonality, but direct evidence for annual rainfall periodicity has been lacking. In the Mesozoic era, about 190 million years ago, thick deposits of wind-blown sand accumulated in dunes of a vast, low-latitude desert at Pangaea's western margin. These deposits are now situated in the southwestern USA. Here we analyse slump masses in the annual depositional cycles within these deposits, which have been described for some outcrops of the Navajo Sandstone. Twenty-four slumps, which were generated by heavy rainfall, appear within one interval representing 36 years of dune migration. We interpret the positions of 20 of these masses to indicate slumping during summer monsoon rains, with the other four having been the result of winter storms. The slumped lee faces of these Jurassic dunes therefore represent a prehistoric record of yearly rain events.

Spatio-temporal variation in δ13CDIC of a tropical eutrophic estuary (Cochin estuary, India) and adjacent Arabian Sea

Science.gov (United States)

Bhavya, P. S.; Kumar, Sanjeev; Gupta, G. V. M.; Sudharma, K. V.; Sudheesh, V.

2018-02-01

Carbon isotopic composition of dissolved inorganic carbon (δ13CDIC) in the Cochin estuary, a tropical eutrophic estuary along the southwest coast of India, and the adjacent coastal Arabian Sea was measured to understand spatio-temporal variability in sources and processes controlling inorganic carbon (C) dynamics in this estuarine-coastal system. δ13CDIC in the Cochin estuary showed wide variation during three different seasons (premonsoon: - 12.2 to - 3.26‰; monsoon: - 13.6 to - 5.69‰; and postmonsoon: - 6.34 to + 0.79‰). Detailed mixing curve approximation modeling along with relationships of δ13CDIC with dissolved oxygen and nutrients suggest dominant role of freshwater mixing and degassing of CO2 on DIC dynamics during wet seasons (premonsoon and monsoon). Excess CO2 brought in by rivers and in situ production due to respiration in the Cochin estuary result into one of the highest pCO2 observed in estuarine systems, leading to its degassing. During postmonsoon, a relatively dry period with high salinity, calcite precipitation was a major process with calcite saturation index > 1 at few locations. Relatively lower average surface values of δ13CDIC in the coastal Arabian Sea (premonsoon: + 0.95‰; monsoon: + 0.88‰; and postmonsoon: + 0.66‰) compared to the predicted open ocean value along with mixing curve modeling suggest dominance of respiration/organic matter (OM) degradation over primary productivity. Estuarine influence on coastal DIC dynamics was observed in nearshore region ( 10 km), whereas evidence of upwelling was found at farther locations.

Interdecadal modulation of El Niño teleconnection on monsoon Asia climate over the past five centuries

Science.gov (United States)

Li, J.; Xie, S. P.

2017-12-01

The El Niño influence on monsoon Asia climate weakened during the mid-20th century and strenthened substantially after the late 1970s. Exploring the nature of such an interdecadal variation is constrained by short instrumental records. Here we synthesize the Indo-Pacific tree-rings and coral records to reconstruct monsoon Asia temperature and moisture change during the past five centuries, and show that the interdecadal modulation of El Niño teleconnection on monsoon Asia climate is a robust feature beyond the instrumenal era. Comparison with proxy El Niño records indicates that the El Niño-monsoon Asia climate teleconnection is controlled by interdecadal changes in ENSO variance, with strong (weak) teleconnection in periods of high (low) variance, respectively.

Retrieval of vertical wind profiles during monsoon from satellite ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

Complex EOF analysis; cloud motion vector winds; wind profiles; retrieval; monsoon. Proc. Indian Acad. Sci. .... The data gaps are removed using simple linear interpolation .... retrieved via standard linear regression using the two independent ...

Seasonal prediction of Indian summer monsoon: Sensitivity to ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

In the present study, the assessment of the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) developed at National Centre for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) for seasonal forecasting of Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) with different persistent SST is reported. Towards achieving the objective, 30-year model climatology has been ...

Recent Progresses in Impacts of Indo-Western Pacific Ocean on East Asian Monsoon

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Jianping

2016-04-01

tropical Indian Ocean (TIO). A significant wetting trend over the MLY in winter during the three decades since the late 1970s, forming a ''mid-eastChina winter wetting'' pattern, which has become an important feature of precipitation change under the weakening East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM). It is found that the increasing TIO SST is the dominant factor responsible for recent increases in precipitation over the MLY. The thermal forcing driven bythe TIO SST warming gives rise to an anomalous cyclonic circulation along the coast of eastern China, which transports more water vapor onto the Chinese mainland, shifts and causes anomalous convergence over the MLY, and generates the increase in precipitation there. As such, the increasing SST in the TIO induces over 80% of the observed wetting trend over the MLY.

Millennial-scale climate variability during the Last Glacial period in the tropical Andes

Science.gov (United States)

Fritz, S. C.; Baker, P. A.; Ekdahl, E.; Seltzer, G. O.; Stevens, L. R.

2010-04-01

Millennial-scale climate variation during the Last Glacial period is evident in many locations worldwide, but it is unclear if such variation occurred in the interior of tropical South America, and, if so, how the low-latitude variation was related to its high-latitude counterpart. A high-resolution record, derived from the deep drilling of sediments on the floor of Lake Titicaca in the southern tropical Andes, is presented that shows clear evidence of millennial-scale climate variation between ˜60 and 20 ka BP. This variation is manifested by alternations of two interbedded sedimentary units. The two units have distinctive sedimentary, geochemical, and paleobiotic properties that are controlled by the relative abundance of terrigenous or nearshore components versus pelagic components. The sediments of more terrigenous or nearshore nature likely were deposited during regionally wetter climates when river transport of water and sediment was higher, whereas the sediments of more pelagic character were deposited during somewhat drier climates regionally. The majority of the wet periods inferred from the Lake Titicaca sediment record are correlated with the cold events in the Greenland ice cores and North Atlantic sediment cores, indicating that increased intensity of the South American summer monsoon was part of near-global scale climate excursions.

Use of Sr isotopes as a tool to decipher the soil weathering processes in a tropical river catchment, southwestern India

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gurumurthy, G.P.; Balakrishna, K.; Tripti, M.; Riotte, Jean; Audry, Stéphane; Braun, Jean-Jacques; Udaya Shankar, H.N.

2015-01-01

River water composition (major ion and "8"7Sr/"8"6Sr ratio) was monitored on a monthly basis over a period of three years from a mountainous river (Nethravati River) of southwestern India. The total dissolved solid (TDS) concentration is relatively low (46 mg L"−"1) with silica being the dominant contributor. The basin is characterised by lower dissolved Sr concentration (avg. 150 nmol L"−"1), with radiogenic "8"7Sr/"8"6Sr isotopic ratios (avg. 0.72041 at outlet). The composition of Sr and "8"7Sr/"8"6Sr and their correlation with silicate derived cations in the river basin reveal that their dominant source is from the radiogenic silicate rock minerals. Their composition in the stream is controlled by a combination of physical and chemical weathering occurring in the basin. The molar ratio of SiO_2/Ca and "8"7Sr/"8"6Sr isotopic ratio show strong seasonal variation in the river water, i.e., low SiO_2/Ca ratio with radiogenic isotopes during non-monsoon and higher SiO_2/Ca with less radiogenic isotopes during monsoon season. Whereas, the seasonal variation of Rb/Sr ratio in the stream water is not significant suggesting that change in the mineral phase being involved in the weathering reaction could be unlikely for the observed molar SiO_2/Ca and "8"7Sr/"8"6Sr isotope variation in river water. Therefore, the shift in the stream water chemical composition could be attributed to contribution of ground water which is in contact with the bedrock (weathering front) during non-monsoon and weathering of secondary soil minerals in the regolith layer during monsoon. The secondary soil mineral weathering leads to limited silicate cation and enhanced silica fluxes in the Nethravati river basin. - Highlights: • Systematic monthly geochemical monitoring of a mountainous tropical river. • Soil weathering has dominant control on the surface water chemistry in the basin. • Soil redox process plays a dominant role in leaching of soil minerals. • Soil mineral weathering in

Soil Microbial Activity Responses to Fire in a Semi-arid Savannah Ecosystem Pre- and Post-Monsoon Season

Science.gov (United States)

Jimenez, J. R.; Raub, H. D.; Jong, E. L.; Muscarella, C. R.; Smith, W. K.; Gallery, R. E.

2017-12-01

Extracellular enzyme activities (EEA) of soil microorganisms can act as important proxies for nutrient limitation and turnover in soil and provide insight into the biochemical requirements of microbes in terrestrial ecosystems. In semi-arid ecosystems, microbial activity is influenced by topography, disturbances such as fire, and seasonality from monsoon rains. Previous studies from forest ecosystems show that microbial communities shift to similar compositions after severe fires despite different initial conditions. In semi-arid ecosystems with high spatial heterogeniety, we ask does fire lead to patch intensification or patch homogenization and how do monsoon rains influence the successional trajectories of microbial responses? We analyzed microbial activity and soil biogeochemistry throughout the monsoon season in paired burned and unburned sites in the Santa Rita Experimental Range, AZ. Surface soil (5cm) from bare-ground patches, bole, canopy drip line, and nearby grass patches for 5 mesquite trees per site allowed tests of spatiotemporal responses to fire and monsoon rain. Microbial activity was low during the pre-monsoon season and did not differ between the burned and unburned sites. We found greater activity near mesquite trees that reflects soil water and nutrient availability. Fire increased soil alkalinity, though soils near mesquite trees were less affected. Soil water content was significantly higher in the burned sites post-monsoon, potentially reflecting greater hydrophobicity of burned soils. Considering the effects of fire in these semi-arid ecosystems is especially important in the context of the projected changing climate regime in this region. Assessing microbial community recovery pre-, during, and post-monsoon is important for testing predictions about whether successional pathways post-fire lead to recovery or novel trajectories of communities and ecosystem function.

Functional ecology of tropical forest recovery

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lohbeck, M.W.M.

2014-01-01

Electronic abstract of the thesis for the library for the acquisitions department of Wageningen UR library (published as a html file so hyperlinks may be included)

In English, one or 2 pages.

Functional ecology of tropical forest recovery

Currently in the

Carbon dioxide and water vapour exchange in a tropical dry forest as influenced by the North American Monsoon System (NAMS)

Science.gov (United States)

To better understand the effects and relationship between precipitation, net ecosystem carbon dioxide (NEE) and water vapor exchange (ET), we report a study conducted in the tropical dry forest (TDF) in the northwest of Mexico. Ecosystem gas exchange was measured using the eddy correlation technique...

Wet scavenging of organic and elemental carbon during summer monsoon and winter monsoon seasons

Science.gov (United States)

Sonwani, S.; Kulshrestha, U. C.

2017-12-01

In the era of rapid industrialization and urbanization, atmospheric abundance of carbonaceous aerosols is increasing due to more and more fossil fuel consumption. Increasing levels of carbonaceous content have significant adverse effects on air quality, human health and climate. The present study was carried out at Delhi covering summer monsoon (July -Sept) and winter monsoon (Dec-Jan) seasons as wind and other meteorological factors affect chemical composition of precipitation in different manner. During the study, the rainwater and PM10 aerosols were collected in order to understand the scavenging process of elemental and organic carbon. The Rain water samples were collected on event basis. PM10 samples were collected before rain (PR), during rain (DR) and after rain (AR) during 2016-2017. The collected samples were analysed by the thermal-optical reflectance method using IMPROVE-A protocol. In PM10, the levels of organic carbon (OC) and its fractions (OC1, OC2, OC3 and OC4) were found significantly lower in the AR samples as compared to PR and DR samples. A significant positive correlation was noticed between scavenging ratios of organic carbon and rain intensity indicating an efficient wet removal of OC. In contrast to OCs, the levels of elemental carbon and its fractions (EC1, EC2, and EC3) in AR were not distinct during PR and DR. The elemental carbon showed very week correlation with rain intensity in Delhi region which could be explained on the basis of hydrophobic nature of freshly emitted carbon soot. The detailed results will be discussed during the conference.

Impacts of interannual variation of the East Asian winter monsoon on aerosol concentrations over eastern China

Science.gov (United States)

Zhu, J.; Liao, H.; Li, J.; Feng, J.

2012-04-01

China has been experiencing increased concentrations of aerosols, commonly attributed to the large increases in emissions associated with the rapid economic development. We apply a global three-dimensional Goddard Earth Observing System chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem) driven by the NASA/GEOS-4 assimilated meteorological data to quantify the impacts of East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) on the aerosol concentrations over eastern China. We found that the simulated aerosol concentrations over eastern China have strong interannual variation and negative correlations with the strength of EAWM. Model results show that, accounting for sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, black carbon, and organic carbon aerosols, the winter surface layer PM2.5 concentration averaged over eastern China (110°-125°E, 20°-45°N) can be 17.97% (4.78 µg m-3) higher in the weak monsoon years than that in the strong monsoon years. Regionally, the weakening of EAWM is shown to be able to increase PM2.5 concentration in the middle and lower reach of the Yellow River by 12 µg m-3. This point indicates that climate change associated with variation of EAWM has an essential influence on worsening air quality over eastern China. The possible causes of higher aerosol concentrations in the weak monsoon years may be attributed to the changing in wind fields and planetary boundary layer height between the weak and strong monsoon years. Sensitivity studies are performed to identify the role of chemical reaction associated with temperature and humidity on the higher aerosol concentrations in the weak monsoon years over eastern China.

Air sea interaction during summer monsoon period of 1979

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

RameshKumar, M.R.

The present study highlights the utility of satellite derived parameters like SST, precipitation, CMV winds in the lower troposphere etc. in supplementing the in-situ observations. This information can lead to a better understanding of the monsoon...

Spatio-temporal variability of summer monsoon rainfall over Orissa ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

decreasing trends in rainfall and number of rainy days over some parts of southwest Orissa during. June and ..... the recent trends and associated physical processes. 3. Results and ... depends on the activity of the monsoon trough. To.

Impact of East Asian Summer Monsoon on Surface Ozone Pattern in China

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Shu; Wang, Tijian; Huang, Xing; Pu, Xi; Li, Mengmeng; Chen, Pulong; Yang, Xiu-Qun; Wang, Minghuai

2018-01-01

Tropospheric ozone plays a key role in regional and global atmospheric and climate systems. In East Asia, ozone can be affected both in concentration level and spatial pattern by typical monsoon climate. This paper uses three different indices to identify the strength of East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and explores the possible impact of EASM intensity on the ozone pattern through synthetic and process analysis. The difference in ozone between three strong and three weak monsoon years was analyzed using the simulations from regional climate model RegCM4-Chem. It was found that EASM intensity can significantly influence the spatial distribution of ozone in the lower troposphere. When EASM is strong, ozone in the eastern part of China (28°N - 42° N) is reduced, but the inverse is detected in the north and south. The surface ozone difference ranges from -7 to 7 ppbv during the 3 months (June to August) of the EASM, with the most obvious difference in August. Difference of the 3 months' average ozone ranges from -3.5 to 4 ppbv. Process analysis shows that the uppermost factor controlling ozone level during summer monsoon seasons is the chemistry process. Interannual variability of EASM can impact the spatial distribution of ozone through wind in the lower troposphere, cloud cover, and downward shortwave radiation, which affect the transport and chemical formation of ozone. The phenomenon should be addressed when considering the interaction between ozone and the climate in East Asia region.

Improvement of Statistical Typhoon Rainfall Forecasting with ANN-Based Southwest Monsoon Enhancement

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tsung-Yi Pan

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Typhoon Morakot 2009, with significant southwest monsoon flow, produced a record-breaking rainfall of 2361 mm in 48 hours. This study hopes to improve a statistical typhoon rainfall forecasting method used over the mountain region of Taiwan via an artificial neural network based southwest monsoon enhancement (ANNSME model. Rainfall data collected at two mountain weather stations, ALiShan and YuShan, are analyzed to establish the relation to the southwest monsoon moisture flux which is calculated at a designated sea area southwest of Taiwan. The results show that the moisture flux, with southwest monsoon flow, transported water vapor during the landfall periods of Typhoons Mindulle, Bilis, Fungwong, Kalmaegi, Haitaing and Morakot. Based on the moisture flux, a linear regression is used to identify an effective value of moisture flux as the threshold flux which can enhance mountain rainfall in southwestern Taiwan. In particular, a feedforward neural network (FNN is applied to estimate the residuals from the linear model to the differences between simulated rainfalls by a typhoon rainfall climatology model (TRCM and observations. Consequently, the ANNSME model integrates the effective moisture flux, linear rainfall model and the FNN for residuals. Even with very limited training cases, our results indicate that the ANNSME model is robust and suitable for improvement of TRCM rainfall prediction. The improved prediction of the total rainfall and of the multiple rainfall peaks is important for emergency operation.

The multidecadal variations of the interannual relationship between the East Asian summer monsoon and ENSO in a coupled model

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Bo; Huang, Gang; Hu, Kaiming; Wu, Renguang; Gong, Hainan; Wang, Pengfei; Zhao, Guijie

2017-10-01

This study investigates the multidecadal variations of the interannual relationship between the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in 1000-year simulation of a coupled climate model. The interannual relationship between ENSO and EASM has experienced pronounced changes throughout the 1000-year simulation. During the periods with significant ENSO-EASM relationship, the ENSO-related circulation anomalies show a Pacific-Japan (PJ)-like pattern with significant wave-activity flux propagating from the tropics to the north in lower troposphere and from the mid-latitudes to the south in upper troposphere. The resultant ENSO-related precipitation anomalies are more (less) than normal over the East Asia (western North Pacific) in the decaying summers of El Niño events. In contrast, the circulation and precipitation anomalies are weak over East Asia-western North Pacific during the periods with weak ENSO-EASM relationship. Based on the energy conversion analysis, the related anomalies achieve barotropic and baroclinic energy from the mean flow during the periods with strong ENSO-EASM relationship. On the contrary, during the low-correlation periods, the energy conversion is too weak to form the link between the tropics and mid-latitudes. The main reason for the multidecadal variations of ENSO-EASM relationship is the amplitude discrepancy of SST anomalies over the Indo-western Pacific Ocean which, in turn, leads to the intensity difference of the western North Pacific anomalous anticyclone (WPAC) and related climate anomalies.

The role of potential vorticity anomalies in the Somali Jet on Indian Summer Monsoon Intraseasonal Variability

Science.gov (United States)

Rai, P.; Joshi, M.; Dimri, A. P.; Turner, A. G.

2018-06-01

The climate of the Indian subcontinent is dominated by rainfall arising from the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) during June to September. Intraseasonal variability during the monsoon is characterized by periods of heavy rainfall interspersed by drier periods, known as active and break events respectively. Understanding and predicting such events is of vital importance for forecasting human impacts such as water resources. The Somali Jet is a key regional feature of the monsoon circulation. In the present study, we find that the spatial structure of Somali Jet potential vorticity (PV) anomalies varies considerably during active and break periods. Analysis of these anomalies shows a mechanism whereby sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies propagate north/northwestwards through the Arabian Sea, caused by a positive feedback loop joining anomalies in SST, convection, modification of PV by diabatic heating and mixing in the atmospheric boundary layer, wind-stress curl, and ocean upwelling processes. The feedback mechanism is consistent with observed variability in the coupled ocean-atmosphere system on timescales of approximately 20 days. This research suggests that better understanding and prediction of monsoon intraseasonal variability in the South Asian monsoon may be gained by analysis of the day-to-day dynamical evolution of PV in the Somali Jet.

The role of potential vorticity anomalies in the Somali Jet on Indian Summer Monsoon Intraseasonal Variability

Science.gov (United States)

Rai, P.; Joshi, M.; Dimri, A. P.; Turner, A. G.

2017-08-01

The climate of the Indian subcontinent is dominated by rainfall arising from the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) during June to September. Intraseasonal variability during the monsoon is characterized by periods of heavy rainfall interspersed by drier periods, known as active and break events respectively. Understanding and predicting such events is of vital importance for forecasting human impacts such as water resources. The Somali Jet is a key regional feature of the monsoon circulation. In the present study, we find that the spatial structure of Somali Jet potential vorticity (PV) anomalies varies considerably during active and break periods. Analysis of these anomalies shows a mechanism whereby sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies propagate north/northwestwards through the Arabian Sea, caused by a positive feedback loop joining anomalies in SST, convection, modification of PV by diabatic heating and mixing in the atmospheric boundary layer, wind-stress curl, and ocean upwelling processes. The feedback mechanism is consistent with observed variability in the coupled ocean-atmosphere system on timescales of approximately 20 days. This research suggests that better understanding and prediction of monsoon intraseasonal variability in the South Asian monsoon may be gained by analysis of the day-to-day dynamical evolution of PV in the Somali Jet.

Seasonal nutrient chemistry in mountainous river systems of tropical Western Peninsular India

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Pradhan, U.K.; Wu, Y.; Shirodkar, P.V.; Zhang, J.

Nutrient chemistry was studied in three mountainous rivers (Mandovi, Zuari and Netravati), across western peninsular India (WPI) during south-west monsoon (SWM), post-monsoon and pre-monsoon seasons of year 2011-2012. Nutrients in rainwater were...

Tropospheric biennial oscillation and South Asian summer monsoon ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

20

suggested that the Indo-Pacific SST displays strong impact on TBO as compared to .... and model display clear biennial signals with above 95% confidence level .... Ascending motion and low level convergence over the monsoon core ..... Indian and western Pacific oceans during the northern winter as revealed by a self-.

From monsoon to marine productivity in the Arabian Sea: insights from glacial and interglacial climates

Science.gov (United States)

Le Mézo, Priscilla; Beaufort, Luc; Bopp, Laurent; Braconnot, Pascale; Kageyama, Masa

2017-07-01

The current-climate Indian monsoon is known to boost biological productivity in the Arabian Sea. This paradigm has been extensively used to reconstruct past monsoon variability from palaeo-proxies indicative of changes in surface productivity. Here, we test this paradigm by simulating changes in marine primary productivity for eight contrasted climates from the last glacial-interglacial cycle. We show that there is no straightforward correlation between boreal summer productivity of the Arabian Sea and summer monsoon strength across the different simulated climates. Locally, productivity is fuelled by nutrient supply driven by Ekman dynamics. Upward transport of nutrients is modulated by a combination of alongshore wind stress intensity, which drives coastal upwelling, and by a positive wind stress curl to the west of the jet axis resulting in upward Ekman pumping. To the east of the jet axis there is however a strong downward Ekman pumping due to a negative wind stress curl. Consequently, changes in coastal alongshore stress and/or curl depend on both the jet intensity and position. The jet position is constrained by the Indian summer monsoon pattern, which in turn is influenced by the astronomical parameters and the ice sheet cover. The astronomical parameters are indeed shown to impact wind stress intensity in the Arabian Sea through large-scale changes in the meridional gradient of upper-tropospheric temperature. However, both the astronomical parameters and the ice sheets affect the pattern of wind stress curl through the position of the sea level depression barycentre over the monsoon region (20-150° W, 30° S-60° N). The combined changes in monsoon intensity and pattern lead to some higher glacial productivity during the summer season, in agreement with some palaeo-productivity reconstructions.

Spatial monsoon variability with respect to NAO and SO

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

the negative phase of ESI tendency, almost all subdivisions of India show ... to affect the Indian summer monsoon rainfall indi- ... Monthly composite picture of ESI during (a) positive (28 years) and (b) negative (25 years) tendency of ESI.

Role of aerosols on the Indian Summer Monsoon variability, as simulated by state-of-the-art global climate models

Science.gov (United States)

Cagnazzo, Chiara; Biondi, Riccardo; D'Errico, Miriam; Cherchi, Annalisa; Fierli, Federico; Lau, William K. M.

2016-04-01

Recent observational and modeling analyses have explored the interaction between aerosols and the Indian summer monsoon precipitation on seasonal-to-interannual time scales. By using global scale climate model simulations, we show that when increased aerosol loading is found on the Himalayas slopes in the premonsoon period (April-May), intensification of early monsoon rainfall over India and increased low-level westerly flow follow, in agreement with the elevated-heat-pump (EHP) mechanism. The increase in rainfall during the early monsoon season has a cooling effect on the land surface that may also be amplified through solar dimming (SD) by more cloudiness and aerosol loading with subsequent reduction in monsoon rainfall over India. We extend this analyses to a subset of CMIP5 climate model simulations. Our results suggest that 1) absorbing aerosols, by influencing the seasonal variability of the Indian summer monsoon with the discussed time-lag, may act as a source of predictability for the Indian Summer Monsoon and 2) if the EHP and SD effects are operating also in a number of state-of-the-art climate models, their inclusion could potentially improve seasonal forecasts.

On the unstable ENSO-Western North Pacific Monsoon relation during the 20th Century

Science.gov (United States)

Vega Martín, Inmaculada; Gallego Puyol, David; Ribera Rodriguez, Pedro; Gómez Delgado, Francisco de Paula; Peña-Ortiz, Cristina

2017-04-01

The concept of the Western North Pacific Summer Monsoon (WNPSM) appeared for the first time in 1987. Unlike the Indian Summer Monsoon and the East Asian summer monsoon, the WNPSM is an oceanic monsoon driven essentially by the meridional gradient of sea surface temperature. Its circulation is characterized by a northwest-southeast oriented monsoon trough with intense precipitation and low-level southwesterlies and upper-tropospheric easterlies in the region [100°-130° E, 5°-15°N]. Although this monsoon is mainly oceanic, it modulates the precipitation of densely populated areas such as the Philippines. To date, the WNPSM has been quantified by the so-called Western North Pacific Monsoon Index (WNPMI), an index based on wind anomalies over large domains of the Western Pacific. The requirement of continuous observed wind over remote oceanic areas to compute the WNPMI has limited its availability to the 1949-2014 period. In this work we have extended the index by almost 100 years by using historical observations of wind direction taken aboard ships. Our Western North Pacific Directional Index (WNPDI), is defined as the sum of the persistence of the low-level westerly winds in [5°-15°N, 100°-130°E] and easterly winds in [20°-30°N, 110°-140°E]. The new WNPDI index is highly correlated to the existent WNPMI for the concurrent period (1948-2014). (r=+0.88, p<0.01), indicating that the new approach based in the use of wind direction alone (a variable that can be considered instrumental even before the 20th Century), captures most of the monsoonal signal. Previous studies found that, during the second part of the 20th Century the WNPSM exhibited two basic characteristics: first a large interannual variability and second, a significant relation between the WNPSM and the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in a way in which a strong (weak) WNPSM tends to occur during the El Niño (La Niña) developing year or/and La Niña (El Niño) decaying year. The analysis of

Indian monsoon variations during three contrasting climatic periods: the Holocene, Heinrich Stadial 2 and the last interglacial-glacial transition

Science.gov (United States)

Zorzi, Coralie; Fernanda Sanchez Goñi, Maria; Anupama, Krishnamurthy; Prasad, Srinivasan; Hanquiez, Vincent; Johnson, Joel; Giosan, Liviu

2016-04-01

In contrast to the East Asian and African monsoons the Indian monsoon is still poorly documented throughout the last climatic cycle (last 135,000 years). Pollen analysis from two marine sediment cores (NGHP-01-16A and NGHP-01-19B) collected from the offshore Godavari and Mahanadi basins, both located in the Core Monsoon Zone (CMZ) reveals changes in Indian summer monsoon variability and intensity during three contrasting climatic periods: the Holocene, the Heinrich Stadial (HS) 2 and the Marine Isotopic Stage (MIS) 5/4 during the ice sheet growth transition. During the first part of the Holocene between 11,300 and 4,200 cal years BP, characterized by high insolation (minimum precession, maximum obliquity), the maximum extension of the coastal forest and mangrove reflects high monsoon rainfall. This climatic regime contrasts with that of the second phase of the Holocene, from 4,200 cal years BP to the present, marked by the development of drier vegetation in a context of low insolation (maximum precession, minimum obliquity). The historical period in India is characterized by an alternation of strong and weak monsoon centennial phases that may reflect the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age, respectively. During the HS 2, a period of low insolation and extensive iceberg discharge in the North Atlantic Ocean, vegetation was dominated by grassland and dry flora indicating pronounced aridity as the result of a weak Indian summer monsoon. The MIS 5/4 glaciation, also associated with low insolation but moderate freshwater fluxes, was characterized by a weaker reduction of the Indian summer monsoon and a decrease of seasonal contrast as recorded by the expansion of dry vegetation and the development of Artemisia, respectively. Our results support model predictions suggesting that insolation changes control the long term trend of the Indian monsoon precipitation, but its millennial scale variability and intensity are instead modulated by atmospheric

Simulation of Indian summer monsoon using the Japan ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

Simulation of Indian summer monsoon using the Japan Meteorological Agency's seasonal ensemble prediction system. Kailas Sonawane1,∗. , O P Sreejith1, D R Pattanaik1,. Mahendra Benke1, Nitin Patil2 and D S Pai1. 1India Meteorological Department, Pune 411 005, India. 2Interdisciplinary Programme in Climate ...

Two millennia of Mesoamerican monsoon variability driven by Pacific and Atlantic synergistic forcing

Science.gov (United States)

Lachniet, Matthew S.; Asmerom, Yemane; Polyak, Victor; Bernal, Juan Pablo

2017-01-01

The drivers of Mesoamerican monsoon variability over the last two millennia remain poorly known because of a lack of precisely-dated and climate-calibrated proxy records. Here, we present a new high resolution (∼2 yrs) and precisely-dated (± 4 yr) wet season hydroclimate reconstruction for the Mesoamerican sector of the North American Monsoon over the past 2250 years based on two aragonite stalagmites from southwestern Mexico which replicate oxygen isotope variations over the 950-1950 CE interval. The reconstruction is quantitatively calibrated to instrumental rainfall variations in the Basin of Mexico. Comparisons to proxy indices of ocean-atmosphere circulation show a synergistic forcing by the North Atlantic and El Niño/Southern Oscillations, whereby monsoon strengthening coincided with a La Niña-like mode and a negative North Atlantic Oscillation, and vice versa for droughts. Our data suggest that weak monsoon intervals are associated with a strong North Atlantic subtropical high pressure system and a weak Intertropical convergence zone in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Population expansions at three major highland Mexico civilization of Teotihuacan, Tula, and Aztec Tenochtitlan were all associated with drought to pluvial transitions, suggesting that urban population growth was favored by increasing freshwater availability in the semi-arid Mexican highlands, and that this hydroclimatic change was controlled by Pacific and Atlantic Ocean forcing.

Simulation of monsoon intraseasonal variability in NCEP CFSv2 and its role on systematic bias

Science.gov (United States)

Goswami, Bidyut B.; Deshpande, Medha; Mukhopadhyay, P.; Saha, Subodh K.; Rao, Suryachandra A.; Murthugudde, Raghu; Goswami, B. N.

2014-11-01

We have evaluated the simulation of Indian summer monsoon and its intraseasonal oscillations in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction climate forecast system model version 2 (CFSv2). The dry bias over the Indian landmass in the mean monsoon rainfall is one of the major concerns. In spite of this dry bias, CFSv2 shows a reasonable northward propagation of convection at intraseasonal (30-60 day) time scale. In order to document and understand this dry bias over the Indian landmass in CFSv2 simulations, a two pronged investigation is carried out on the two major facets of Indian summer monsoon: one, the air-sea interactions and two, the large scale vertical heating structure in the model. Our analysis shows a possible bias in the co-evolution of convection and sea surface temperature in CFSv2 over the equatorial Indian Ocean. It is also found that the simulated large scale vertical heat source (Q1) and moisture sink (Q2) over the Indian region are biased relative to observational estimates. Finally, this study provides a possible explanation for the dry precipitation bias over the Indian landmass in the simulated mean monsoon on the basis of the biases associated with the simulated ocean-atmospheric processes and the vertical heating structure. This study also throws some light on the puzzle of CFSv2 exhibiting a reasonable northward propagation at the intraseasonal time scale (30-60 day) despite a drier monsoon over the Indian land mass.

Changes of extreme precipitation and nonlinear influence of climate variables over monsoon region in China

KAUST Repository

Gao, Tao

2017-07-19

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) are well understood to be major drivers for the variability of precipitation extremes over monsoon regions in China (MRC). However, research on monsoon extremes in China and their associations with climate variables is limited. In this study, we examine the space-time variations of extreme precipitation across the MRC, and assess the time-varying influences of the climate drivers using Bayesian dynamic linear regression and their combined nonlinear effects through fitting generalized additive models. Results suggest that the central-east and south China is dominated by less frequent but more intense precipitation. Extreme rainfalls show significant positive trends, coupled with a significant decline of dry spells, indicating an increasing chance of occurrence of flood-induced disasters in the MRC during 1960–2014. Majority of the regional indices display some abrupt shifts during the 1990s. The influences of climate variables on monsoon extremes exhibit distinct interannual or interdecadal variations. IOD, ENSO and AMO have strong impacts on monsoon and extreme precipitation, especially during the 1990s, which is generally consistent with the abrupt shifts in precipitation regimes around this period. Moreover, ENSO mainly affects moderate rainfalls and dry spells, while IOD has a more significant impact on precipitation extremes. These findings could be helpful for improving the forecasting of monsoon extremes in China and the evaluations of climate models.

Ganges Valley Aerosol Experiment (GVAX) Final Campaign Report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kotamarthi, VR [Argonne National Laboratory

2013-12-01

In general, the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) as well as the and the tropical monsoon climate is influenced by a wide range of factors. Under various climate change scenarios, temperatures over land and into the mid troposphere are expected to increase, intensifying the summer pressure gradient differential between land and ocean and thus strengthening the ISM. However, increasing aerosol concentration, air pollution, and deforestation result in changes to surface albedo and insolation, potentially leading to low monsoon rainfall. Clear evidence points to increasing aerosol concentrations over the Indian subcontinent with time, and several hypotheses regarding the effect on monsoons have been offered. The Ganges Valley Aerosol Experiment (GVAX) field study aimed to provide critical data to address these hypotheses and contribute to developing better parameterizations for tropical clouds, convection, and aerosol-cloud interactions. The primary science questions for the mission were as follows:

North-East monsoon rainfall extremes over the southern peninsular India and their association with El Niño

Science.gov (United States)

Singh, Prem; Gnanaseelan, C.; Chowdary, J. S.

2017-12-01

The present study investigates the relationship between extreme north-east (NE) monsoon rainfall (NEMR) over the Indian peninsula region and El Niño forcing. This turns out to be a critical science issue especially after the 2015 Chennai flood. The puzzle being while most El Niños favour good NE monsoon, some don't. In fact some El Niño years witnessed deficit NE monsoon. Therefore two different cases (or classes) of El Niños are considered for analysis based on standardized NEMR index and Niño 3.4 index with case-1 being both Niño-3.4 and NEMR indices greater than +1 and case-2 being Niño-3.4 index greater than +1 and NEMR index less than -1. Composite analysis suggests that SST anomalies in the central and eastern Pacific are strong in both cases but large differences are noted in the spatial distribution of SST over the Indo-western Pacific region. This questions our understanding of NEMR as mirror image of El Niño conditions in the Pacific. It is noted that the favourable excess NEMR in case-1 is due to anomalous moisture transport from Bay of Bengal and equatorial Indian Ocean to southern peninsular India. Strong SST gradient between warm western Indian Ocean (and Bay of Bengal) and cool western Pacific induced strong easterly wind anomalies during NE monsoon season favour moisture transport towards the core NE monsoon region. Further anomalous moisture convergence and convection over the core NE monsoon region supported positive rainfall anomalies in case-1. While in case-2, weak SST gradients over the Indo-western Pacific and absence of local low level convergence over NE monsoon region are mainly responsible for deficit rainfall. The ocean dynamics in the Indian Ocean displayed large differences during case-1 and case-2, suggesting the key role of Rossby wave dynamics in the Indian Ocean on NE monsoon extremes. Apart from the large scale circulation differences the number of cyclonic systems land fall for case-1 and case-2 have also contributed for

Pleistocene climatic changes drive diversification across a tropical savanna.

Science.gov (United States)

Potter, Sally; Xue, Alexander T; Bragg, Jason G; Rosauer, Dan F; Roycroft, Emily J; Moritz, Craig

2018-01-01

Spatial responses of species to past climate change depend on both intrinsic traits (climatic niche breadth, dispersal rates) and the scale of climatic fluctuations across the landscape. New capabilities in generating and analysing population genomic data, along with spatial modelling, have unleashed our capacity to infer how past climate changes have shaped populations, and by extension, complex communities. Combining these approaches, we uncover lineage diversity across four codistributed lizards from the Australian Monsoonal Tropics and explore how varying climatic tolerances interact with regional climate history to generate common vs. disparate responses to late Pleistocene change. We find more divergent spatial structuring and temporal demographic responses in the drier Kimberley region compared to the more mesic and consistently suitable Top End. We hypothesize that, in general, the effects of species' traits on sensitivity to climate fluctuation will be more evident in climatically marginal regions. If true, this points to the need in climatically marginal areas to craft more species-(or trait)-specific strategies for persistence under future climate change. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Tropical Glaciers

Science.gov (United States)

Fountain, Andrew

The term "tropical glacier" calls to mind balmy nights and palm trees on one hand and cold, blue ice on the other. Certainly author Gabriel Garcia Marqez exploited this contrast in One Hundred Years of Solitude. We know that tropical fish live in warm, Sun-kissed waters and tropical plants provide lush, dense foliage populated by colorful tropical birds. So how do tropical glaciers fit into this scene? Like glaciers everywhere, tropical glaciers form where mass accumulation—usually winter snow—exceeds mass loss, which is generally summer melt. Thus, tropical glaciers exist at high elevations where precipitation can occur as snowfall exceeds melt and sublimation losses, such as the Rwenzori Mountains in east Africa and the Maoke Range of Irian Jaya.

Hydrographic Conditions in the Gulf of Carpentaria During Australian Monsoon Experiment

Science.gov (United States)

Inoue, M.; Steinberg, C.; Wolanski, E.; Ridd, P.

2002-12-01

Gulf of Carpentaria located in the northern Australia, is a shallow wide basin with the deepest bottom depths of approximately 60 m. It is connected to Arafura Sea to the north and west, and to the Torres Strait to the east. Hydrographic surveys of the Gulf of Carpentaria were carried out in January and March, 1987 as part of Australian Monsoon Experiment. During the January survey, Tropical Cyclone (TC) Irma was formed in the Gulf of Carpentaria. An east-west CTD section at 13o52'S was occupied twice, one prior to and during, and the other after the formation of TC Irma. In addition, two post-Irma east-west sections were occupied at 12o40'S and 11o30'S. The pre-cyclone section indicates a well-defined stratified two-layer system, while the post-cyclone sections show deepening of the surface warm layer due to significant mixing by TC Irma. Overall, significant cooling of near surface warm water on the order of more than 1oC was observed. Significant heat loss estimated for the water column has presumably contributed toward the development of TC Irma. In February 1987, TC Jason was formed in the gulf. During the March survey, two east-west CTD sections were occupied at 11o30'S and 13o52'S. The March survey reveals notable warming of the bottom water. Detailed discussion of the CTD data from the two cruises will be presented.

Variability of mixed layer depth in the northern Indian Ocean during 1977 and 1979 summer monsoon seasons

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Gopalakrishna, V.V.; Sadhuram, Y.; RameshBabu, V.

quantitatively making use of time-series data collected during MONSOON-77 and MONEX-79 programmes. After the onset of monsoon (June/July 1977) over the central Arabian Sea, wind stress together with possible sinking processes on account of negative wind stress...

Different orbital rhythms in the Asian summer monsoon records from North and South China during the Pleistocene

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ao, H.; Dekkers, M.J.; Xiao, G.; Yang, X.; Qin, L.; Liu, X; Qiang, X.; Chang, H.; Zhao, H.

2012-01-01

Here we construct a Pleistocene astronomical timescale for the Nihewan fluvio–lacustrine sediments (North China), via tuning a stacked summer monsoon index generated from grain size and low-field magnetic susceptibility records to orbital obliquity and precession. Combining the summer monsoon

Role of the Indian Ocean on the southern oscillation, atmospheric circulation indices and monsoon rainfall over India

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Sadhuram, Y.; Wells, N.C.

Oscillation and ENSO is also examined. Indian monsoon rainfall is strongly and positively correlated with the SST of November month (0.77; statistically significant at 99% level) of the preceding calendar year. Monsoon indices (M1, U200) are strongly...

Mineral dust transport toward Hurricane Helene (2006)

Science.gov (United States)

Schwendike, Juliane; Jones, Sarah C.; Vogel, Bernhard; Vogel, Heike

2016-05-01

This study investigates the transport of mineral dust from its source regions in West Africa toward the developing tropical cyclone Helene (2006) and diagnoses the resulting properties of the air influencing the tropical cyclonegenesis. The model system COSMO-ART (Consortium for Small-Scale Modelling-Aerosols and Reactive Trace gases) in which the emission and transport of mineral dust as well as the radiation feedback are taken into account, was used. The emission of mineral dust between 9 and 14 September 2006 occurred in association with the relatively strong monsoon flow and northeasterly trade winds, with gust fronts of convective systems over land, and with the Atlantic inflow. Additionally, increased surface wind speed was linked to orographical effects at the Algerian Mountains, Atlas Mountains, and the Hoggar. The dust, as part of the Saharan air layer, is transported at low levels by the monsoon flow, the Harmattan, the northeasterly trade winds, and the monsoon trough, and is transported upward in the convergence zone between Harmattan and monsoon flow, in the baroclinic zone along the West African coastline, and by convection. At around 700 hPa the dust is transported by the African easterly jet. Dry and dust-free air is found to the north-northwest of the developing tropical depression due to descent in an anticyclone. Based on the model data, it was possible to distinguish between dry (from the anticyclone), dry and dusty (from the Harmattan and northeasterly trade winds), and dusty and moist air (from the monsoon flow and in the tropical depression due to convection).

Increases in aerosol concentrations over eastern China due to the decadal-scale weakening of the East Asian summer monsoon

Science.gov (United States)

Zhu, Jianlei; Liao, Hong; Li, Jianping

2012-05-01

China has been experiencing increased concentrations of aerosols, commonly attributed to the large increases in emissions associated with the rapid economic development. We show by using a chemical transport model driven by the assimilated meteorological fields that the observed decadal-scale weakening of the East Asian summer monsoon also contributed to the increases in aerosols in China. We find that the simulated aerosol concentrations have strong negative correlations with the strength of the East Asian Summer monsoon. Accounting for sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, black carbon, and organic carbon aerosols, the summer surface-layer PM2.5 concentration averaged over eastern China (110°-125°E, 20°-45°N) can be 17.7% higher in the weakest monsoon years than in the strongest monsoon years. The weakening of the East Asian Summer monsoon increases aerosol concentrations mainly by the changes in atmospheric circulation (the convergence of air pollutants) in eastern China.

Aerosol meteorology of Maritime Continent for the 2012 7SEAS southwest monsoon intensive study - Part 2: Philippine receptor observations of fine-scale aerosol behavior

Science.gov (United States)

Reid, Jeffrey S.; Lagrosas, Nofel D.; Jonsson, Haflidi H.; Reid, Elizabeth A.; Atwood, Samuel A.; Boyd, Thomas J.; Ghate, Virendra P.; Xian, Peng; Posselt, Derek J.; Simpas, James B.; Uy, Sherdon N.; Zaiger, Kimo; Blake, Donald R.; Bucholtz, Anthony; Campbell, James R.; Chew, Boon Ning; Cliff, Steven S.; Holben, Brent N.; Holz, Robert E.; Hyer, Edward J.; Kreidenweis, Sonia M.; Kuciauskas, Arunas P.; Lolli, Simone; Oo, Min; Perry, Kevin D.; Salinas, Santo V.; Sessions, Walter R.; Smirnov, Alexander; Walker, Annette L.; Wang, Qing; Yu, Liya; Zhang, Jianglong; Zhao, Yongjing

2016-11-01

The largest 7 Southeast Asian Studies (7SEAS) operations period within the Maritime Continent (MC) occurred in the August-September 2012 biomass burning season. Data included were observations aboard the M/Y Vasco, dispatched to the Palawan Archipelago and Sulu Sea of the Philippines for September 2012. At these locations, the Vasco observed MC smoke and pollution entering the southwest monsoon (SWM) monsoonal trough. Here we describe the research cruise findings and the finer-scale aerosol meteorology of this convectively active region. This 2012 cruise complemented a 2-week cruise in 2011 and was generally consistent with previous findings in terms of how smoke emission and transport related to monsoonal flows, tropical cyclones (TC), and the covariance between smoke transport events and the atmosphere's thermodynamic structure. Biomass burning plumes were usually mixed with significant amounts of anthropogenic pollution. Also key to aerosol behavior were squall lines and cold pools propagating across the South China Sea (SCS) and scavenging aerosol particles in their path. However, the 2012 cruise showed much higher modulation in aerosol frequency than its 2011 counterpart. Whereas in 2011 large synoptic-scale aerosol events transported high concentrations of smoke into the Philippines over days, in 2012 measured aerosol events exhibited a much shorter-term variation, sometimes only 3-12 h. Strong monsoonal flow reversals were also experienced in 2012. Nucleation events in cleaner and polluted conditions, as well as in urban plumes, were observed. Perhaps most interestingly, several cases of squall lines preceding major aerosol events were observed, as opposed to 2011 observations where these lines largely scavenged aerosol particles from the marine boundary layer. Combined, these observations indicate pockets of high and low particle counts that are not uncommon in the region. These perturbations are difficult to observe by satellite and very difficult to model

Aerosol Meteorology of Maritime Continent for the 2012 7SEAS Southwest Monsoon Intensive Study - Part 2: Philippine Receptor Observations of Fine-Scale Aerosol Behavior

Science.gov (United States)

Reid, Jeffrey S.; Lagrosas, Nofel D.; Jonsson, Haflidi H.; Reid, Elizabeth A.; Atwood, Samuel A.; Boyd, Thomas J.; Ghate, Virendra P.; Xian, Peng; Posselt, Derek J.; Simpas, James B.;

Extended Range Prediction of Indian Summer Monsoon: Current status

Science.gov (United States)

Sahai, A. K.; Abhilash, S.; Borah, N.; Joseph, S.; Chattopadhyay, R.; S, S.; Rajeevan, M.; Mandal, R.; Dey, A.

2014-12-01

The main focus of this study is to develop forecast consensus in the extended range prediction (ERP) of monsoon Intraseasonal oscillations using a suit of different variants of Climate Forecast system (CFS) model. In this CFS based Grand MME prediction system (CGMME), the ensemble members are generated by perturbing the initial condition and using different configurations of CFSv2. This is to address the role of different physical mechanisms known to have control on the error growth in the ERP in the 15-20 day time scale. The final formulation of CGMME is based on 21 ensembles of the standalone Global Forecast System (GFS) forced with bias corrected forecasted SST from CFS, 11 low resolution CFST126 and 11 high resolution CFST382. Thus, we develop the multi-model consensus forecast for the ERP of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) using a suite of different variants of CFS model. This coordinated international effort lead towards the development of specific tailor made regional forecast products over Indian region. Skill of deterministic and probabilistic categorical rainfall forecast as well the verification of large-scale low frequency monsoon intraseasonal oscillations has been carried out using hindcast from 2001-2012 during the monsoon season in which all models are initialized at every five days starting from 16May to 28 September. The skill of deterministic forecast from CGMME is better than the best participating single model ensemble configuration (SME). The CGMME approach is believed to quantify the uncertainty in both initial conditions and model formulation. Main improvement is attained in probabilistic forecast which is because of an increase in the ensemble spread, thereby reducing the error due to over-confident ensembles in a single model configuration. For probabilistic forecast, three tercile ranges are determined by ranking method based on the percentage of ensemble members from all the participating models falls in those three categories. CGMME further

The link between Tibetan Plateau monsoon and Indian summer precipitation: a linear diagnostic perspective

Science.gov (United States)

Ge, Fei; Sielmann, Frank; Zhu, Xiuhua; Fraedrich, Klaus; Zhi, Xiefei; Peng, Ting; Wang, Lei

2017-12-01

The thermal forcing of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) is analyzed to investigate the formation and variability of Tibetan Plateau Summer Monsoon (TPSM), which affects the climates of the surrounding regions, in particular the Indian summer monsoon precipitation. Dynamic composites and statistical analyses indicate that the Indian summer monsoon precipitation is less/greater than normal during the strong/weak TPSM. Strong (weak) TPSM is associated with an anomalous near surface cyclone (anticyclone) over the western part of the Tibetan Plateau, enhancing (reducing) the westerly flow along its southern flank, suppressing (favoring) the meridional flow of warm and moist air from the Indian ocean and thus cutting (providing) moisture supply for the northern part of India and its monsoonal rainfall. These results are complemented by a dynamic and thermodynamic analysis: (i) A linear thermal vorticity forcing primarily describes the influence of the asymmetric heating of TP generating an anomalous stationary wave flux. Composite analysis of anomalous stationary wave flux activity (after Plumb in J Atmos Sci 42:217-229, 1985) strongly indicate that non-orographic effects (diabatic heating and/or interaction with transient eddies) of the Tibetan Plateau contribute to the generation of an anomalous cyclone (anti-cyclone) over the western TP. (ii) Anomalous TPSM generation shows that strong TPSM years are related to the positive surface sensible heating anomalies over the eastern TP favoring the strong diabatic heating in summer. While negative TPSM years are associated with the atmospheric circulation anomalies during the preceding spring, enhancing northerly dry-cold air intrusions into TP, which may weaken the condensational heat release in the middle and upper troposphere, leading to a weaker than normal summer monsoon over the TP in summer.

Dynamics and composition of the Asian summer monsoon anticyclone

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Gottschaldt, Klaus Dirk; Schlager, Hans; Baumann, Robert; Sinh Cai, Duy; Eyring, Veronika; Graf, Phoebe; Grewe, V.; Jöckel, Patrick; Jurkat-Witschas, Tina; Voigt, Christiane; Zahn, Andreas; Ziereis, Helmut

2018-01-01

This study places HALO research aircraft observations in the upper-tropospheric Asian summer monsoon anticyclone (ASMA) into the context of regional, intra-annual variability by hindcasts with the ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) model. The observations were obtained during the Earth

Monsoon regime in the Indian Ocean and zooplankton variability

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Nair, V.R.

and the estuaries in order to show how the monsoon exerts its influence on zooplankton from different types of environment. In the open ocean, the semi-annually reversing system of currents exert profound influence on the shifting of zooplankton populations and its...

Evaporation-precipitation changes in the eastern Arabian Sea for the last 68 ka: Implications on monsoon variability

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Govil, P.; Naidu, P.D.

from MIS 4 to MIS 3 was marked with a conspicuous shift from higher to lower delta sup(18)Ow values, which reflects a decrease in the evaporation precipitation budget in the EAS, perhaps due to the strengthening of southwest monsoon. Monsoon...

Summer cooling in the east central Arabian Sea - a process of dynamic response to the southwest monsoon

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

RameshBabu, V.; Sastry, J.S.

The cooling of the east central Arabian Sea during summer monsoon season is examined using data sets of MONEX '79 and MONSOON '77 programmes. These studies have revealed that downward transfer of heat due to the mixing of warm surface and cold sub...