WorldWideScience

Sample records for monsoon rainfall processes

  1. Detailed Analysis of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall Processes with Modern/High-Quality Satellite Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Eric A.; Kuo, Kwo-Sen; Mehta, Amita V.; Yang, Song

    2007-01-01

    We examine, in detail, Indian Summer Monsoon rainfall processes using modernhigh quality satellite precipitation measurements. The focus here is on measurements derived from three NASA cloud and precipitation satellite missionslinstruments (TRMM/PR&TMI, AQUNAMSRE, and CLOUDSATICPR), and a fourth TRMM Project-generated multi-satellite precipitation measurement dataset (viz., TRMM standard algorithm 3b42) -- all from a period beginning in 1998 up to the present. It is emphasized that the 3b42 algorithm blends passive microwave (PMW) radiometer-based precipitation estimates from LEO satellites with infi-ared (IR) precipitation estimates from a world network of CEO satellites (representing -15% of the complete space-time coverage) All of these observations are first cross-calibrated to precipitation estimates taken from standard TRMM combined PR-TMI algorithm 2b31, and second adjusted at the large scale based on monthly-averaged rain-gage measurements. The blended approach takes advantage of direct estimates of precipitation from the PMW radiometerequipped LEO satellites -- but which suffer fi-om sampling limitations -- in combination with less accurate IR estimates from the optical-infrared imaging cameras on GEO satellites -- but which provide continuous diurnal sampling. The advantages of the current technologies are evident in the continuity and coverage properties inherent to the resultant precipitation datasets that have been an outgrowth of these stable measuring and retrieval technologies. There is a wealth of information contained in the current satellite measurements of precipitation regarding the salient precipitation properties of the Indian Summer Monsoon. Using different datasets obtained from the measuring systems noted above, we have analyzed the observations cast in the form of: (1) spatially distributed means and variances over the hierarchy of relevant time scales (hourly I diurnally, daily, monthly, seasonally I intra-seasonally, and inter

  2. Tropical stratospheric circulation and monsoon rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sikder, A. B.; Patwardhan, S. K.; Bhalme, H. N.

    1993-09-01

    Interannual variability of both SW monsoon (June September) and NE monsoon (October December) rainfall over subdivisions of Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema and Tamil Nadu have been examined in relation to monthly zonal wind anomaly for 10 hPa, 30 hPa and 50 hPa at Balboa (9°N, 80°W) for the 29 year period (1958 1986). Correlations of zonal wind anomalies to SW monsoon rainfall ( r=0.57, significant at 1% level) is highest with the longer lead time (August of the previous year) at 10 hPa level suggesting some predictive value for Coastal Andhra Pradesh. The probabilities estimated from the contingency table reveal non-occurrence of flood during easterly wind anomalies and near non-occurrence of drought during westerly anomalies for August of the previous year at 10 hPa which provides information for forecasting of performance of SW monsoon over Coastal Andhra Pradesh. However, NE monsoon has a weak relationship with zonal wind anomalies of 10 hPa, 30 hPa and 50 hPa for Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema and Tamil Nadu. Tracks of the SW monsoon storms and depressions in association with the stratospheric wind were also examined to couple with the fluctuations in SW monsoon rainfall. It is noted that easterly / westerly wind at 10 hPa, in some manner, suppresses / enhances monsoon storms and depressions activity affecting their tracks.

  3. Modeling and forecasting rainfall patterns of southwest monsoons in North-East India as a SARIMA process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Narasimha Murthy, K. V.; Saravana, R.; Vijaya Kumar, K.

    2017-02-01

    Weather forecasting is an important issue in the field of meteorology all over the world. The pattern and amount of rainfall are the essential factors that affect agricultural systems. India experiences the precious Southwest monsoon season for four months from June to September. The present paper describes an empirical study for modeling and forecasting the time series of Southwest monsoon rainfall patterns in the North-East India. The Box-Jenkins Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) methodology has been adopted for model identification, diagnostic checking and forecasting for this region. The study has shown that the SARIMA (0, 1, 1) (1, 0, 1)4 model is appropriate for analyzing and forecasting the future rainfall patterns. The Analysis of Means (ANOM) is a useful alternative to the analysis of variance (ANOVA) for comparing the group of treatments to study the variations and critical comparisons of rainfall patterns in different months of the season.

  4. Role of low level flow on the summer monsoon rainfall over the Indian subcontinent during two contrasting monsoon years

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Swapna, P.; RameshKumar, M.R.

    The summer monsoon rainfall over the Indian subcontinent shows 1 large inter-annual variability in three important aspects, namely, the onset date, quantum of monsoon rainfall and the monsoon activity within the monsoon (June - September) period...

  5. Summer monsoon rainfall prediction for India - Some new ideas

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Varkey, M.J.

    Present methods of forecasting of mean Indian rainfall for summer monsoon season are critically examined. Considering the wide variations in mean seasonal rainfalls (more than 5 to less than 400 cm) and crops in various regions of India...

  6. Gridded daily Indian monsoon rainfall for 14 seasons: Merged TRMM and IMD gauge analyzed values

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Ashis K Mitra; I M Momin; E N Rajagopal; S Basu; M N Rajeevan; T N Krishnamurti

    2013-10-01

    Indian monsoon is an important component of earth’s climate system. Daily rainfall data for longer period is vital to study components and processes related to Indian monsoon. Daily observed gridded rainfall data covering both land and adjoining oceanic regions are required for numerical model validation and model development for monsoon. In this study, a new gridded daily Indian rainfall dataset at 1° × 1° latitude/longitude resolution covering 14 monsoon seasons (1998–2011) are described. This merged satellite gauge rainfall dataset (NMSG) combines TRMM TMPA rainfall estimates with gauge information from IMD gridded data. Compared to TRMM and GPCP daily rainfall data, the current NMSG daily data has more information due to inclusion of local gauge analysed values. In terms of bias and skill scores this dataset is superior to other daily rainfall datasets. In a mean climatological sense and also for anomalous monsoon seasons, this merged satellite gauge data brings out more detailed features of monsoon rainfall. The difference of NMSG and GPCP looks significant. This dataset will be useful to researchers for monsoon intraseasonal studies and monsoon model development research.

  7. Investigation of summer monsoon rainfall variability in Pakistan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hussain, Mian Sabir; Lee, Seungho

    2016-08-01

    This study analyzes the inter-annual and intra-seasonal rainfall variability in Pakistan using daily rainfall data during the summer monsoon season (June to September) recorded from 1980 to 2014. The variability in inter-annual monsoon rainfall ranges from 20 % in northeastern regions to 65 % in southwestern regions of Pakistan. The analysis reveals that the transition of the negative and positive anomalies was not uniform in the investigated dataset. In order to acquire broad observations of the intra-seasonal variability, an objective criterion, the pre-active period, active period and post-active periods of the summer monsoon rainfall have demarcated. The analysis also reveals that the rainfall in June has no significant contribution to the increase in intra-seasonal rainfall in Pakistan. The rainfall has, however, been enhanced in the summer monsoon in August. The rainfall of September demonstrates a sharp decrease, resulting in a high variability in the summer monsoon season. A detailed examination of the intra-seasonal rainfall also reveals frequent amplitude from late July to early August. The daily normal rainfall fluctuates significantly with its maximum in the Murree hills and its minimum in the northwestern Baluchistan.

  8. Analysis of spatial and temporal extreme monsoonal rainfall over South Asia using complex networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Malik, Nishant [Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, P.O. Box 60 12 03, Potsdam (Germany); University of Potsdam, Institute of Physics, Potsdam-Golm (Germany); Bookhagen, Bodo [University of California Santa Barbara, Department of Geography, Santa Barbara, CA (United States); Marwan, Norbert [Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, P.O. Box 60 12 03, Potsdam (Germany); Kurths, Juergen [Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, P.O. Box 60 12 03, Potsdam (Germany); Humboldt University, Department of Physics, Berlin (Germany)

    2012-08-15

    We present a detailed analysis of summer monsoon rainfall over the Indian peninsular using nonlinear spatial correlations. This analysis is carried out employing the tools of complex networks and a measure of nonlinear correlation for point processes such as rainfall, called event synchronization. This study provides valuable insights into the spatial organization, scales, and structure of the 90th and 94th percentile rainfall events during the Indian summer monsoon (June-September). We furthermore analyse the influence of different critical synoptic atmospheric systems and the impact of the steep Himalayan topography on rainfall patterns. The presented method not only helps us in visualising the structure of the extreme-event rainfall fields, but also identifies the water vapor pathways and decadal-scale moisture sinks over the region. Furthermore a simple scheme based on complex networks is presented to decipher the spatial intricacies and temporal evolution of monsoonal rainfall patterns over the last 6 decades. (orig.)

  9. Asian Summer Monsoon and its Associated Rainfall Variability in Thailand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Atsamon Limsakul

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available The Asian monsoon is an important component of the Earth's climate. Its associated rainfall variability is a crucial fac¬tor for Thailand's socio-economic development, water resources and agricultural management. An analysis shows that the Thailand rainfall annual cycle is in phase with the Indian summer monsoon (ISM and the western North Pacific summer monsoon (WNPSM. On the basis of the Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF analysis, the dominant spatial-temporal interannual variability in summer monsoon rainfall (Jun.-Sep. during 1975-2006 could be explained by the first two EOF modes, accounting for 34% of the total variance. The EOF1 was spatially dominated by strong positive signals in the central and east, whereas the EOF2 exhibited dipole variability. The coefficient time series of EOF1 significantly correlated posi¬tively with ISM index, but negatively with WNPSM index. The results suggest that summer monsoon rainfall in Thailand is higher (lower than normal during the strengthening (weakening of ISM. In contrast, rainfall in the north-east (central is surplus (deficit during the strengthening (weakening of WNPSM. These findings imply that, on an interannual time scale, ISM and WNPSM exert their influence to a different extent on summer monsoon rainfall in Thailand. A clear picture of linking mechanisms and interactions with another climate mode in the Indo-Pacific sector needs to be understood. This knowledge is essential for effectively adapting to climate-related hazards and rainfall extremes and for better management of water resource and agriculture in Thailand, especially under current/future warming conditions.

  10. Evaluation of multi-satellite rainfall products over India during monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitra, Ashis K.; Prakash, Satya; Pai, D. S.; Srivastava, A. K.

    2016-05-01

    Simulation and prediction of Indian monsoon rainfall at scales from days-to-season is a challenging task for numerical modelling community worldwide. Gridded estimates of daily rainfall data are required for both land and oceanic regions for model validation, process studies and in turn for model development. Due to recent developments in satellite meteorology, it has become possible to produce realistic near real-time gridded rainfall datasets at operational basis by combining satellite estimates with rain gauge values and other available in-situ observations. Microwave and space based radar based estimates of rainfall has revolutionised the preparation of rainfall datasets especially for tropics. However, a variety of multi-satellite products are available over Indian monsoon region from a variety of sources. Popular products like TRMM TMPA3B42 (RT and V7), GsMaP, CPC/RFE, GPCP and GPM are available to end users in various space/time scales for applications and model validation. In this study, we show the representation and skill of monsoon rainfall from a variety of multi-satellite products over the Indian region. The bias and skill of multi-satellite rainfall are evaluated against gauge based observations. It was found that the TRMM based TMPA was one of the best dataset for Indian monsoon region. Attempt is made to compare the latest GPM based data with other products. The GPM based rainfall product is seen to be superior compared to TRMM.

  11. Rainfall analysis for Indian monsoon region using the merged rain gauge observations and satellite estimates: Evaluation of monsoon rainfall features

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    S K Roy Bhowmik; Ananda K Das

    2007-06-01

    Objective analysis of daily rainfall at the resolution of 1° grid for the Indian monsoon region has been carried out merging dense land rainfall observations and INSAT derived precipitation estimates. This daily analysis, being based on high dense rain gauge observations was found to be very realistic and able to reproduce detailed features of Indian summer monsoon. The inter-comparison with the observations suggests that the new analysis could distinctly capture characteristic features of the summer monsoon such as north–south oriented belt of heavy rainfall along the Western Ghats with sharp gradient of rainfall between the west coast heavy rain region and the rain shadow region to the east, pockets of heavy rainfall along the location of monsoon trough/low, over the east central parts of the country, over north–east India, along the foothills of Himalayas and over the north Bay of Bengal. When this product was used to assess the quality of other available standard climate products (CMAP and ECMWF reanalysis) at the grid resolution of 2.5°, it was found that the orographic heavy rainfall along Western Ghats of India was poorly identified by them. However, the GPCC analysis (gauge only) at the resolution of 1° grid closely discerns the new analysis. This suggests that there is a need for a higher resolution analysis with adequate rain gauge observations to retain important aspects of the summer monsoon over India. The case studies illustrated show that the daily analysis is able to capture large-scale as well as mesoscale features of monsoon precipitation systems. This study with data of two seasons (2001 and 2003) has shown sufficiently promising results for operational application, particularly for the validation of NWP models.

  12. Predicting monsoon rainfall and pressure indices from sea surface temperature

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Sadhuram, Y.

    The relationship between the sea surface temperature (SST) in the Indian Ocean and monsoon rainfall has been examined by using 21 years data set (1967-87) of MOHSST.6 (Met. Office Historical Sea Surface Temperature data set, obtained from U.K. Met...

  13. Moisture source for summer monsoon rainfall over India

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Sadhuram, Y.; Rao, D.P.

    Southwest monsoon plays a vital role in India's economy as the major income comes from agriculture. What could be the moisture source for this copious amount of rainfall over the Indian sub-continent?. This has been studied in detail and noticed...

  14. Teleconnections between Indian monsoon and Sahel rainfall and the Mediterranean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raicich, Fabio; Pinardi, Nadia; Navarra, Antonio

    2003-02-01

    The teleconnections with Indian monsoon and Sahel rainfall indices are investigated here on an interannual time scale in terms of meteorological and marine dynamics over the Mediterranean area. Sea-level pressure from gridded data sets and from individual stations, together with sea-level data from stations all around the Mediterranean coastlines, are used.In summer (July-August-September, JAS) the sea-level pressure field over the eastern Mediterranean anticorrelates with the Indian monsoon index (correlation coefficient C = -0.5 on average). A Mediterranean pressure index (MPI), defined as the standardized difference between sea-level atmospheric pressure at Mersa Matruh (southeastern Mediterranean) and Marseille (northwestern Mediterranean) stations, anticorrelates with Indian monsoon index even more (C = -0.68). The MPI is proportional to the mean geostrophic surface flow field across an imaginary line joining the two stations and turns out to be significantly correlated with the meridional wind component over the eastern Mediterranean, known as the low-level Etesian wind regime. This wind regime represents the inflow surface field into the African inter-tropical convergence zone and, therefore, has an association with the Indian monsoon regime. The ocean response, evident by sea-level anomalies at coastal stations, shows a maximum anticorrelation with Indian monsoon index in late summer and autumn (September-October-November, SON).The Sahel index anticorrelates with sea-level pressure, with the maximum absolute value in June-July-August. This may be interpreted as a tendency of the Mediterranean sea-level pressure anomalies to precede those of Sahel precipitation, which is characterized by maximum rainfall in July-September. The MPI anticorrelates with Sahel index during and before JAS, indicating that the Etesian wind regime intensity is connected to Sahel rainfall. The sea level again anticorrelates with the Sahel index, with the maximum absolute value in

  15. Heavy Rainfall Associated with a Monsoon Depression in South China: Structure Analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    JIANG Jianying; JIANG Jixi; BU Yalin; LIU Nianqing

    2008-01-01

    A heavy rainfall associated with the deepening of a monsoon depression happened in the summer of 2005.This process was first diagnostically analyzed and the 3D structure of the monsoon depression was discussed,then this structure was compared with those of the monsoon depression in South Asia and the low vortex in the Meiyu front. The results showed that the heavy rainfall directly resulted from a monsoon depression in South China, and the large-scale environment provided a favorable background for the deepening of the monsoon depression. The 3D structure of the monsoon depression was as follows. In the horizontal direction,there existed a convective cloud band to the south of the monsoon depression, which lay in a convectively instable area, with a relatively strong ascending motion in the mid and low levels of the troposphere, and the ascending motion matched well with a moist tongue, a convergence area, and a band of positive vorticity in the mid and low levels of the troposphere. In the vertical direction, the depression had an obviously cyclonic circulation in the mid and low levels of the troposphere, but no circulation from above 300 hPa. The monsoon depression corresponded to convergence and positive vorticity in the low levels, but to divergence and negative vortieity in the upper levels. The upward draft of the depression could reach the upper levels of the troposphere in the west of the depression, while the descending motion lay in the east. There was a low-level jet to the south of the depression, while the upper-level jet was not obvious. The depression was vertically warm in the upper levels and cold in the low levels, and the axis of the depression tilted southeastward with height, whose characteristics were different not only from the monsoon depression in South Asia but also from the low vortex in the Meiyu front.

  16. Long range prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    A A Munot; K Krishna Kumar

    2007-02-01

    The search for new parameters for predicting the all India summer monsoon rainfall (AISMR) has been an important aspect of long range prediction of AISMR. In recent years NCEP/NCAR reanalysis has improved the geographical coverage and availability of the data and this can be easily updated. In this study using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data on temperature, zonal and meridional wind at different pressure levels, few predictors are identified and a prediction scheme is developed for predicting AISMR. The regression coeffcients are computed by stepwise multiple regression procedure. The final equation explained 87% of the variance with multiple correlation coeffcient (MCC), 0.934. The estimated rainfall in the El-Nino year of 1997 was -1.7% as against actual of 4.4%. The estimated rainfall deficiency in both the recent deficient years of 2002 and 2004 were -19.5% and -8.5% as against observed -20.4% and -11.5% respectively.

  17. Mechanism of ENSO influence on the South Asian monsoon rainfall in global model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joshi, Sneh; Kar, Sarat C.

    2017-02-01

    Coupled ocean atmosphere global climate models are increasingly being used for seasonal scale simulation of the South Asian monsoon. In these models, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) evolve as coupled air-sea interaction process. However, sensitivity experiments with various SST forcing can only be done in an atmosphere-only model. In this study, the Global Forecast System (GFS) model at T126 horizontal resolution has been used to examine the mechanism of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forcing on the monsoon circulation and rainfall. The model has been integrated (ensemble) with observed, climatological and ENSO SST forcing to document the mechanism on how the South Asian monsoon responds to basin-wide SST variations in the Indian and Pacific Oceans. The model simulations indicate that the internal variability gets modulated by the SSTs with warming in the Pacific enhancing the ensemble spread over the monsoon region as compared to cooling conditions. Anomalous easterly wind anomalies cover the Indian region both at 850 and 200 hPa levels during El Niño years. The locations and intensity of Walker and Hadley circulations are altered due to ENSO SST forcing. These lead to reduction of monsoon rainfall over most parts of India during El Niño events compared to La Niña conditions. However, internally generated variability is a major source of uncertainty in the model-simulated climate.

  18. Comparative Study of Monsoon Rainfall Variability over India and the Odisha State

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K C Gouda

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Indian summer monsoon (ISM plays an important role in the weather and climate system over India. The rainfall during monsoon season controls many sectors from agriculture, food, energy, and water, to the management of disasters. Being a coastal province on the eastern side of India, Odisha is one of the most important states affected by the monsoon rainfall and associated hydro-meteorological systems. The variability of monsoon rainfall is highly unpredictable at multiple scales both in space and time. In this study, the monsoon variability over the state of Odisha is studied using the daily gridded rainfall data from India Meteorological Department (IMD. A comparative analysis of the behaviour of monsoon rainfall at a larger scale (India, regional scale (Odisha, and sub-regional scale (zones of Odisha is carried out in terms of the seasonal cycle of monsoon rainfall and its interannual variability. It is seen that there is no synchronization in the seasonal monsoon category (normal/excess/deficit when analysed over large (India and regional (Odisha scales. The impact of El Niño, La Niña, and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD on the monsoon rainfall at both scales (large scale and regional scale is analysed and compared. The results show that the impact is much more for rainfall over India, but it has no such relation with the rainfall over Odisha. It is also observed that there is a positive (negative relation of the IOD with the seasonal monsoon rainfall variability over Odisha (India. The correlation between the IAV of monsoon rainfall between the large scale and regional scale was found to be 0.46 with a phase synchronization of 63%. IAV on a sub-regional scale is also presented.

  19. Long-range prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall using data mining and statistical approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    H, Vathsala; Koolagudi, Shashidhar G.

    2016-07-01

    This paper presents a hybrid model to better predict Indian summer monsoon rainfall. The algorithm considers suitable techniques for processing dense datasets. The proposed three-step algorithm comprises closed itemset generation-based association rule mining for feature selection, cluster membership for dimensionality reduction, and simple logistic function for prediction. The application of predicting rainfall into flood, excess, normal, deficit, and drought based on 36 predictors consisting of land and ocean variables is presented. Results show good accuracy in the considered study period of 37years (1969-2005).

  20. Modelling the impacts of deforestation on monsoon rainfall in West Africa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Abiodun, B J [Department of Environmental and Geographical Science, University of Cape Town (South Africa); Pal, J S [Department of Civil Engineering and Environmental Science, Loyola Marymount University, California (United States); Afiesimama, E A [WMO Regional Research and Training Institute, Lagos (Nigeria); Gutowski, W J [Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences, Iowa State University, Iowa (United States); Adedoyin, A, E-mail: babiodun@csag.uct.ac.z [Department of Physics, University of Botswana, Gaborone (Botswana)

    2010-08-15

    The study found that deforestation causes more monsoon moisture to be retained in the mid-troposphere, thereby reducing the northward transport of moisture needed for rainfall over West Africa. Hence, deforestation has dynamical impacts on the West African monsoon and rainfall.

  1. Impacts of aerosol-monsoon interaction on rainfall and circulation over Northern India and the Himalaya Foothills

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, William K. M.; Kim, Kyu-Myong; Shi, Jainn-Jong; Matsui, T.; Chin, M.; Tan, Qian; Peters-Lidard, C.; Tao, W. K.

    2016-11-01

    The boreal summer of 2008 was unusual for the Indian monsoon, featuring exceptional heavy loading of dust aerosols over the Arabian Sea and northern-central India, near normal all-India rainfall, but excessive heavy rain, causing disastrous flooding in the Northern Indian Himalaya Foothills (NIHF) regions, accompanied by persistent drought conditions in central and southern India. Using the NASA Unified-physics Weather Research Forecast (NUWRF) model with fully interactive aerosol physics and dynamics, we carried out three sets of 7-day ensemble model forecast experiments: (1) control with no aerosol, (2) aerosol radiative effect only and (3) aerosol radiative and aerosol-cloud-microphysics effects, to study the impacts of aerosol-monsoon interactions on monsoon variability over the NIHF during the summer of 2008. Results show that aerosol-radiation interaction (ARI), i.e., dust aerosol transport, and dynamical feedback processes induced by aerosol-radiative heating, plays a key role in altering the large-scale monsoon circulation system, reflected by an increased north-south tropospheric temperature gradient, a northward shift of heavy monsoon rainfall, advancing the monsoon onset by 1-5 days over the HF, consistent with the EHP hypothesis (Lau et al. in Clim Dyn 26(7-8):855-864, 2006). Additionally, we found that dust aerosols, via the semi-direct effect, increase atmospheric stability, and cause the dissipation of a developing monsoon onset cyclone over northeastern India/northern Bay of Bengal. Eventually, in a matter of several days, ARI transforms the developing monsoon cyclone into meso-scale convective cells along the HF slopes. Aerosol-Cloud-microphysics Interaction (ACI) further enhances the ARI effect in invigorating the deep convection cells and speeding up the transformation processes. Results indicate that even in short-term (up to weekly) numerical forecasting of monsoon circulation and rainfall, effects of aerosol-monsoon interaction can be

  2. Impacts of aerosol-monsoon interaction on rainfall and circulation over Northern India and the Himalaya Foothills

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, William K. M.; Kim, Kyu-Myong; Shi, Jainn-Jong; Matsui, T.; Chin, M.; Tan, Qian; Peters-Lidard, C.; Tao, W. K.

    2017-09-01

    The boreal summer of 2008 was unusual for the Indian monsoon, featuring exceptional heavy loading of dust aerosols over the Arabian Sea and northern-central India, near normal all-India rainfall, but excessive heavy rain, causing disastrous flooding in the Northern Indian Himalaya Foothills (NIHF) regions, accompanied by persistent drought conditions in central and southern India. Using the NASA Unified-physics Weather Research Forecast (NUWRF) model with fully interactive aerosol physics and dynamics, we carried out three sets of 7-day ensemble model forecast experiments: (1) control with no aerosol, (2) aerosol radiative effect only and (3) aerosol radiative and aerosol-cloud-microphysics effects, to study the impacts of aerosol-monsoon interactions on monsoon variability over the NIHF during the summer of 2008. Results show that aerosol-radiation interaction (ARI), i.e., dust aerosol transport, and dynamical feedback processes induced by aerosol-radiative heating, plays a key role in altering the large-scale monsoon circulation system, reflected by an increased north-south tropospheric temperature gradient, a northward shift of heavy monsoon rainfall, advancing the monsoon onset by 1-5 days over the HF, consistent with the EHP hypothesis (Lau et al. in Clim Dyn 26(7-8):855-864, 2006). Additionally, we found that dust aerosols, via the semi-direct effect, increase atmospheric stability, and cause the dissipation of a developing monsoon onset cyclone over northeastern India/northern Bay of Bengal. Eventually, in a matter of several days, ARI transforms the developing monsoon cyclone into meso-scale convective cells along the HF slopes. Aerosol-Cloud-microphysics Interaction (ACI) further enhances the ARI effect in invigorating the deep convection cells and speeding up the transformation processes. Results indicate that even in short-term (up to weekly) numerical forecasting of monsoon circulation and rainfall, effects of aerosol-monsoon interaction can be

  3. Characteristics of Summertime Circulation Patterns for Southern Taiwan's Monsoon Rainfall from July to September

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ken-Chung Ko and Yi-Shuan Tzeng

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This study documents the circulation features associated with summer monsoon rainfall over southern Taiwan from July through September over the period 1974 - 2001. Four types of monsoon systems, Monsoon I, I-TC, II and II-TC, are identified based on the daily rainfall data of 4 observational stations over southern Taiwan and the daily wind direction data of Lanyu. The total rainfall amount of Monsoon I and I-TC is much greater than that for Monsoon II and II-TC because the former two have more moisture. Monsoon I is characterized by a strong southwesterly flow over southern Taiwan due to the tightening of the pressure gradient between the monsoon trough and subtropical high over the western North Pacific. The Monsoon I-TC pattern exhibits a deep monsoon trough along with an anomalous cyclone near the East China Sea; this pattern drives a large volume of moisture that causes heavy rainfall over southern Taiwan. The circulation patterns of Monsoon I and I-TC resemble the flow pattern during the Mei-Yu or _ _ season from May through mid-July. The Monsoon II pattern reveals a trough south of Taiwan and accompanied by a strong ridge north to it. The convection is located near the southern flank of the monsoon trough. The circulation pattern of Monsoon II-TC yields a deep trough south of the westward protruding subtropical ridge. Additionally, the Monsoon II-TC is less significant because of the wide variety of the TC locations. The Monsoon II and II-TC patterns are similar to the Pacific-Japan (PJ pattern that can affect weather in the East Asian summer monsoon area.

  4. Contribution of Monthly and Regional Rainfall to the Strength of Indian Summer Monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Y.; Ali, M.; Bourassa, M. A.

    2015-12-01

    Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR: June-September) has both temporal and spatial variability causing floods/droughts in different seasons/locations leading to a strong or weak monsoon. Here, we present the contribution of all-India monthly, seasonal and regional rainfall to the ISMR, with special reference to the strong and weak monsoons. For this purpose, rainfall data provided by the India Meteorological Department (IMD: http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/Monsoon_frame.htm) for 1901-2013 have been used. The IMD divided the Indian sub-continent into four homogeneous regions of northwest India (NWI), northeast India (NEI), central India (CI), and south peninsula India (SPIN). Rainfall during July-August contributes the most to the total seasonal rainfall, whether it is a strong or weak monsoon. Although the NEI has the maximum area-weighted rainfall, its contribution is the least toward a strong or weak monsoon. The rainfall in the remaining three regions (NWI, CI, and SPIN) controls whether an ISMR is strong or weak. Compared to the monthly rainfall, the regional rainfall dominates the strong or weak rainfall periods.

  5. An Indian Ocean precursor for Indian summer monsoon rainfall variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sreejith, O. P.; Panickal, S.; Pai, S.; Rajeevan, M.

    2015-11-01

    The Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) depicts large interannual variability strongly linked with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, many of the El Niño years were not accompanied by deficient ISMR. The results from the study reveal the significant role of coupled air-sea interaction over the tropical Indian Ocean (IO) in modifying the ENSO-ISMR association. The IO warm water volume (WWV), a measure of heat content variations in the equatorial IO has strong influence on ISMR. A deepening (shoaling) of thermocline in the eastern equatorial IO (EEIO) during late boreal spring (April-May) accompanied by increase (decrease) in WWV anomalies weaken (enhance) the ISMR by enhancing (suppressing) the convection over EEIO resulting in the below (above) normal ISMR. Thus, the changes in the WWV anomalies in the EEIO along with ENSO conditions during boreal spring can be considered as a precursor for the performance of subsequent ISMR.

  6. Aerosol and rainfall variability over the Indian monsoon region. Distributions, trends and coupling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gautam, R. [Maryland Univ., Baltimore County, MD (United States). Goddard Earth Science and Technology Center; NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD (United States). Lab. for Atmospheres; Hsu, N.C.; Lau, K.M. [NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD (United States). Lab. for Atmospheres; Kafatos, M. [Chapman Univ., Orange, CA (United States). Center of Excellence in Earth Observing

    2009-07-01

    Aerosol solar absorption over the Indian monsoon region has a potential role of modulating the monsoon circulation and rainfall distribution as suggested by recent studies based on model simulations. Prior to the onset of the monsoon, northern India is influenced by significant dust transport that constitutes the bulk of the regional aerosol loading over the Gangetic-Himalayan region. In this paper, a multi-sensor characterization of the increasing pre-monsoon aerosol loading over northern India, in terms of their spatial, temporal and vertical distribution is presented. Aerosol transport from the northwestern arid regions into the Indo-Gangetic Plains and over the foothills of the Himalayas is found to be vertically extended to elevated altitudes (up to 5 km) as observed from the space-borne lidar measurements (CALIPSO). In relation with the enhanced pre-monsoon aerosol loading and the associated solar absorption effects on tropospheric temperature anomalies, this paper investigates the monsoon rainfall variability over India in recent past decades from an observational viewpoint. It is found that the early summer monsoon rainfall over India is on the rise since 1950s, as indicated by historical rainfall data, with over 20% increase for the period 1950-2004. This large sustained increase in the early summer rainfall is led by the observed strengthening of the pre-monsoon tropospheric land-sea thermal gradient over the Indian monsoon region as indicated by microwave satellite measurements (MSU) of tropospheric temperatures from 1979-2007. Combined analysis of changes in tropospheric temperatures and summer monsoon rainfall in the past three decades, suggest a future possibility of an emerging rainfall pattern of a wetter monsoon over South Asia in early summer followed by a drier period. (orig.)

  7. Mountain Heavy Rainfall Measurement Experiments in a Subtropical Monsoon Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jong-Dao Jou, Ben; Chi-June Jung, Ultimate; Lai, Hsiao-Wei; Feng, Lei

    2014-05-01

    Quantitative rainfall measurement experiments have been conducted in Taiwan area for the past 5 years (since 2008), especially over the complex terrain region. In this paper, results from these experiments will be analyzed and discussed, especially those associated with heavy rain events in the summer monsoon season. Observations from s-band polarimetric radar (SPOL of NCAR) and also x-band vertically-pointing radar are analyzed to reveal the high resolution temporal and spatial variation of precipitation structure. May and June, the Meiyu season in the area, are months with subtropical frontal rainfall events. Mesoscale convective systems, i.e., pre-frontal squall lines and frontal convective rainbands, are very active and frequently produce heavy rain events over mountain areas. Accurate quantitative precipitation measurements are needed in order to meet the requirement for landslide and flood early warning purpose. Using ground-based disdrometers and vertically-pointing radar, we have been trying to modify the quantitative precipitation estimation in the mountain region by using coastal operational radar. In this paper, the methodology applied will be presented and the potential of its application will be discussed. *corresponding author: Ben Jong-Dao Jou, jouben43@gmail.com

  8. Impacts of Urbanization on Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shastri, H. K.; Ghosh, S.; Karmakar, S.

    2013-12-01

    Rapid urbanisation all around the world is a matter of concern to the scientific community. The fast growing urban areas carries out huge anthropogenic activities that burdens natural environment and its resources like air-water quality and space, thus have different climatology to their rural surroundings. World Urbanization Prospects 2005 annual report described 20th century as witnessing a rapid urbanization of the world's population. Though urbanization is a worldwide phenomenon, it is especially prevalent in India, where urban areas have experienced an unprecedented rate of growth with level of urbanization increased from 17.23 % to 31.16% in year 1951 to 2011and the number of cities with population more than one million has grown from 5 to 53 over the same time. We take up an observational study to understand influence of urbanisation on mesoscale circulations and resulting convection, thus nature of precipitation around urban areas. The spatially distributed analysis of gridded daily precipitation data over the country is carried out to identify nature of trends in selected statistics of Indian summer monsoon precipitation and examine its association with urban land cover to have an impact on precipitation statistics. We evaluate explicit changes around urban land use in context of 40 large Indian urban areas. Further we assess local-urban climatic signals in the point level rainfall observations with model based analysis of two nearby locations under similar climatic conditions but differing largely in terms of urbanisation. The results of gridded data analysis indicate an overall tendency towards decrease in mean precipitation however, rainfall activities are enhanced around urban areas across different climate zones of the country. Though trends observed in selected climatic parameters revealed great degree of spatial inter variability in selected precipitation statistics over the country, they accounts a greater degree of inclination for occurrence under

  9. Prediction of Monthly Summer Monsoon Rainfall Using Global Climate Models Through Artificial Neural Network Technique

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nair, Archana; Singh, Gurjeet; Mohanty, U. C.

    2017-08-01

    The monthly prediction of summer monsoon rainfall is very challenging because of its complex and chaotic nature. In this study, a non-linear technique known as Artificial Neural Network (ANN) has been employed on the outputs of Global Climate Models (GCMs) to bring out the vagaries inherent in monthly rainfall prediction. The GCMs that are considered in the study are from the International Research Institute (IRI) (2-tier CCM3v6) and the National Centre for Environmental Prediction (Coupled-CFSv2). The ANN technique is applied on different ensemble members of the individual GCMs to obtain monthly scale prediction over India as a whole and over its spatial grid points. In the present study, a double-cross-validation and simple randomization technique was used to avoid the over-fitting during training process of the ANN model. The performance of the ANN-predicted rainfall from GCMs is judged by analysing the absolute error, box plots, percentile and difference in linear error in probability space. Results suggest that there is significant improvement in prediction skill of these GCMs after applying the ANN technique. The performance analysis reveals that the ANN model is able to capture the year to year variations in monsoon months with fairly good accuracy in extreme years as well. ANN model is also able to simulate the correct signs of rainfall anomalies over different spatial points of the Indian domain.

  10. Influence of cosmic-ray variability on the monsoon rainfall and temperature

    CERN Document Server

    Badruddin,

    2014-01-01

    We study the role of galactic cosmic ray (GCR) variability in influencing the rainfall variability in Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) season. We find that on an average during 'drought' (low ISMR) periods in India, GCR flux is decreasing, and during 'flood' (high ISMR) periods, GCR flux is increasing. The results of our analysis suggest for a possibility that the decreasing GCR flux during the summer monsoon season in India may suppress the rainfall. On the other hand, increasing GCR flux may enhance the rainfall. We suspect that in addition to real environmental conditions, significant levitation/dispersion of low clouds and hence reduced possibility of collision/coalescence to form raindrops suppresses the rainfall during decreasing GCR flux in monsoon season. On the other hand, enhanced collision/coalescence efficiency during increasing GCR flux due to electrical effects may contribute to enhancing the rainfall. Based on the observations, we put forward the idea that, under suitable environmental con...

  11. The contrasting features of Asian summer monsoon during surplus and deficient rainfall over India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raju, P. V. S.; Mohanty, U. C.; Rao, P. L. S.; Bhatla, R.

    2002-12-01

    An endeavour is made to distinguish the mean summer monsoon features during surplus and deficient monsoon seasons. Based on all-India summer monsoon rainfall, over 42 years (1958-99), seven surplus and ten deficient monsoon seasons are identified. Making use of daily averaged (00 Z and 12 Z) reanalysis data sets from the National Center for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research for the corresponding surplus and deficient monsoon seasons, the mean circulation characteristics and large-scale energetics are examined.The circulation features denote that the cross equatorial flow, low-level jet and tropical easterly jet are stronger during a surplus monsoon. Further, strong Tibetan anticyclonic flow characterizes a surplus monsoon. The large-scale balances of kinetic energy, heat and moisture show a significantly large quantity of diabatic heating, adiabatic generation of kinetic energy, and horizontal convergence of heat and moisture during the surplus monsoon season compared with the deficient state. The regions with statistically significant difference between surplus and deficient monsoon seasons are delineated by a Student's t-test at the 95% confidence level. The remarkable aspect noticed in this study is that the Arabian Sea branch of the monsoon circulation is more vigorous during a surplus monsoon season, whereas the eastern Bay of Bengal branch is stronger during a deficient monsoon. The various large-scale budget terms of kinetic energy, heat and moisture are found to be consistent and in agreement with the seasonal monsoon activity over India.

  12. Eurasian Snow Conditions and Summer Monsoon Rainfall over South and Southeast Asia:Assessment and Comparison

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2005-01-01

    This study reveals the complex nature of the connection between Eurasian snow and the following summer season's monsoon rainfall by using four different indicators of snow conditions and correlating each of them to summer monsoon rainfall. Using 46 years of historical records of mean winter snow depth,maximum snow depth, and snow starting dates, and 27 years of snow area coverage from remote sensing observations over Eurasia, the authors found diverse correlation patterns between snow conditions and the following warm season's rainfall over South and Southeast Asia. Some of the results contradict the well-known inverse relationships between snow and the summer monsoon. This study provides an easy comparison of results in that it shows the connections between Eurasian snow and monsoon rainfall by using different Eurasian snow indicators based on the best available historical records without discrimination of regional variations in snow conditions.

  13. Relationships between Indian summer monsoon rainfall and ice cover over selected oceanic regions

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Gopinathan, C.K.

    The variations in oceanic ice cover at selected polar regions during 1973 to 1987 have been analysed in relation to the seasonal Indian summer monsoon rainfall. The ice cover over the Arctic regions in June has negative relationship (correlation...

  14. On Winning the Race for Predicting the Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goswami, Bhupendra

    2013-03-01

    Skillful prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) one season in advance remains a ``grand challenge'' for the climate science community even though such forecasts have tremendous socio-economic implications over the region. Continued poor skill of the ocean-atmosphere coupled models in predicting ISMR is an enigma in the backdrop when these models have high skill in predicting seasonal mean rainfall over the rest of the Tropics. Here, I provide an overview of the fundamental processes responsible for limited skill of climate models and outline a framework for achieving the limit on potential predictability within a reasonable time frame. I also show that monsoon intra-seasonal oscillations (MISO) act as building blocks of the Asian monsoon and provide a bridge between the two problems, the potential predictability limit and the simulation of seasonal mean climate. The correlation between observed ISMR and ensemble mean of predicted ISMR (R) can still be used as a metric for forecast verification. Estimate of potential limit of predictability of Asian monsoon indicates that the highest achievable R is about 0.75. Improvements in climate models and data assimilation over the past one decade has slowly improved R from near zero a decade ago to about 0.4 currently. The race for achieving useful prediction can be won, if we can push this skill up to about 0.7. It requires focused research in improving simulations of MISO, monsoon seasonal cycle and ENSO-monsoon relationship by the climate models. In order to achieve this goal by 2015-16 timeframe, IITM is leading a Program called Monsoon Mission supported by the Ministry of Earth Sciences, Govt. of India (MoES). As improvement in skill of forecasts can come only if R & D is carried out on an operational modeling system, the Climate Forecast System of National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) of NOAA, U.S.A has been selected as our base system. The Mission envisages building partnership between

  15. Validation of Seasonal Forecast of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Das, Sukanta Kumar; Deb, Sanjib Kumar; Kishtawal, C. M.; Pal, Pradip Kumar

    2015-06-01

    The experimental seasonal forecast of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall during June through September using Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) version 3 has been carried out at the Space Applications Centre Ahmedabad since 2009. The forecasts, based on a number of ensemble members (ten minimum) of CAM, are generated in several phases and updated on regular basis. On completion of 5 years of experimental seasonal forecasts in operational mode, it is required that the overall validation or correctness of the forecast system is quantified and that the scope is assessed for further improvements of the forecast over time, if any. The ensemble model climatology generated by a set of 20 identical CAM simulations is considered as the model control simulation. The performance of the forecast has been evaluated by assuming the control simulation as the model reference. The forecast improvement factor shows positive improvements, with higher values for the recent forecasted years as compared to the control experiment over the Indian landmass. The Taylor diagram representation of the Pearson correlation coefficient (PCC), standard deviation and centered root mean square difference has been used to demonstrate the best PCC, in the order of 0.74-0.79, recorded for the seasonal forecast made during 2013. Further, the bias score of different phases of experiment revealed the fact that the ISM rainfall forecast is affected by overestimation in predicting the low rain-rate (less than 7 mm/day), but by underestimation in the medium and high rain-rate (higher than 11 mm/day). Overall, the analysis shows significant improvement of the ISM forecast over the last 5 years, viz. 2009-2013, due to several important modifications that have been implemented in the forecast system. The validation exercise has also pointed out a number of shortcomings in the forecast system; these will be addressed in the upcoming years of experiments to improve the quality of the ISM prediction.

  16. Investigation of the aerosol-cloud-rainfall association over the Indian summer monsoon region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarangi, Chandan; Nand Tripathi, Sachchida; Kanawade, Vijay P.; Koren, Ilan; Sivanand Pai, D.

    2017-04-01

    Monsoonal rainfall is the primary source of surface water in India. Using 12 years of in situ and satellite observations, we examined the association of aerosol loading with cloud fraction, cloud top pressure, cloud top temperature, and daily surface rainfall over the Indian summer monsoon region (ISMR). Our results showed positive correlations between aerosol loading and cloud properties as well as rainfall. A decrease in outgoing longwave radiation and an increase in reflected shortwave radiation at the top of the atmosphere with an increase in aerosol loading further indicates a possible seminal role of aerosols in the deepening of cloud systems. Significant perturbation in liquid- and ice-phase microphysics was also evident over the ISMR. For the polluted cases, delay in the onset of collision-coalescence processes and an enhancement in the condensation efficiency allows for more condensate mass to be lifted up to the mixed colder phases. This results in the higher mass concentration of larger-sized ice-phase hydrometeors and, therefore, implies that the delayed rain processes eventually lead to more surface rainfall. A numerical simulation of a typical rainfall event case over the ISMR using a spectral bin microphysical scheme coupled with the Weather Research Forecasting (WRF-SBM) model was also performed. Simulated microphysics also illustrated that the initial suppression of warm rain coupled with an increase in updraft velocity under high aerosol loading leads to enhanced super-cooled liquid droplets above freezing level and ice-phase hydrometeors, resulting in increased accumulated surface rainfall. Thus, both observational and numerical analysis suggest that high aerosol loading may induce cloud invigoration, thereby increasing surface rainfall over the ISMR. While the meteorological variability influences the strength of the observed positive association, our results suggest that the persistent aerosol-associated deepening of cloud systems and an

  17. Impact of monsoon rainfall on the total food grain yield over India

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    V Prasanna

    2014-07-01

    The study focuses on understanding the variations of precipitation during summer monsoon season and its impact on Kharif and Rabi foodgrain yield over India. Total foodgrain yield over India during Kharif (summer) season is directly affected by variations in the summer monsoon precipitation (June–September). An increase (decrease) in rainfall is generally associated with an increase (decrease) in foodgrain yield. A similar correspondence during the Rabi (winter) foodgrain yield is not evident. The Rabi crop is not directly affected by variations in the post-monsoon precipitation (October–December) alone, also the summer season precipitation influences the Rabi crop through water and soil moisture availability over many parts of India. Though the reduction of rainfall activity during the entire summer monsoon season leads to reduction in crop yields, the occurrence of prolonged rainfall breaks also causes adverse effect on the crop growth resulting in reduced crop yields.

  18. Intraseasonal Variability of Summer Monsoon Rainfall and Droughts over Central India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shrivastava, Sourabh; Kar, Sarat C.; Sharma, Anu Rani

    2017-02-01

    Rainfall over Madhya Pradesh (MP) in central India has large intra-seasonal variability causing droughts and floods in many years. In this study, rainfall variability in daily and monthly scale over central India has been examined using observed data. Consistency among various datasets such as rainfall, surface temperature, soil moisture and evapotranspiration has been examined. These parameters are from various different sources and critical for drought monitoring and prediction. It is found that during weak phases of monsoon, central India receives deficit rainfall with weaker monsoon circulation. This phase is characterized by an anticyclonic circulation at 850 hPa centered on MP. The EOF analysis of daily rainfall suggests that the two leading modes explain about 23-24% of rainfall variability in intraseasonal timescale. These two modes represent drought/flood conditions over MP. Relationship of weak phases of rainfall over central India with real-time multivariate (RMM) indices of Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) has been examined. It is found that RMM-6, RMM-7, RMM-1 and RMM-2 describe the weak monsoon conditions over central India. However, frequency of drought occurrence over MP is more during RMM-7 phase. Surface temperature increases by about 0.5°-1° during weak phases of rainfall over this region. Soil moisture and evapotranspiration gradually reduce when rainfall reduces over the study region. Soil moisture and evapotranspiration anomalies have positive pattern during good rainfall events over central India and gradually reduce and become negative anomalies during weak phases.

  19. ON THE PROCESS OF SUMMER MONSOON ONSET OVER EAST ASIA

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    陈隆勋; 李薇; 赵平; 陶诗言

    2001-01-01

    Using daily observational rainfall data covered 194 stations of China from 1961 to 1995 and NCEP model analyzed pentad precipitation data of global grid point from 1979 to 1997, the distribution of onset date of rainy season over Asian area from spring to summer is studied in this paper. The analyzed results show that there exist two stages of rainy season onset over East Asian region from spring to summer rainy season onset accompanying subtropical monsoon and tropical monsoon respectively. The former rain belt is mainly formed by the convergence of cold air and the recurved southwesterly flow from western part of subtropical high and westerly flow from the so-called western trough of subtropical region occurring during winter to spring over South Asia. The latter is formed in the process of subtropical monsoon rain belt over inshore regions of South China Sea originally coming from south of Changjiang (Yangtze) River Basin advancing with northward shift of subtropical high after the onset of tropical monsoon over South China Sea. The pre-flood rainy season over South China region then came into mature period and the second peak of rainfall appeared. Meiyu, the rainy season over Changjiang-Huaihe River Basin and North China then formed consequently. The process of summer tropical monsoon onset over South China Sea in 1998 is also discussed in this paper. It indicated that the monsoon during summer tropical monsoon onset over South China Sea is the result of the westerly flow over middle part of South China Sea,which is from the new generated cyclone formed in north subtropical high entering into South China Sea, converged with the tropical southwesterly flow recurved by the intensified cross-equatorial flow.

  20. Seasonal forecasting of Bangladesh summer monsoon rainfall using simple multiple regression model

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Md Mizanur Rahman; M Rafiuddin; Md Mahbub Alam

    2013-04-01

    In this paper, the development of a statistical forecasting method for summer monsoon rainfall over Bangladesh is described. Predictors for Bangladesh summer monsoon (June–September) rainfall were identified from the large scale ocean–atmospheric circulation variables (i.e., sea-surface temperature, surface air temperature and sea level pressure). The predictors exhibited a significant relationship with Bangladesh summer monsoon rainfall during the period 1961–2007. After carrying out a detailed analysis of various global climate datasets; three predictors were selected. The model performance was evaluated during the period 1977–2007. The model showed better performance in their hindcast seasonal monsoon rainfall over Bangladesh. The RMSE and Heidke skill score for 31 years was 8.13 and 0.37, respectively, and the correlation between the predicted and observed rainfall was 0.74. The BIAS of the forecasts (% of long period average, LPA) was −0.85 and Hit score was 58%. The experimental forecasts for the year 2008 summer monsoon rainfall based on the model were also found to be in good agreement with the observation.

  1. Precipitation top heights of orographic heavy rainfall in the Asian monsoon regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shige, Shoichi; Kummerow, Christian

    2016-04-01

    In contrast to the dominant view that heavy rainfall results from deep clouds, the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) precipitation radar (PR) frequently observed heavy, but shallow orographic rainfall over coastal mountain ranges of the Asian monsoon regions. The low-level horizontal winds, leading to topographic forced upward motion on the windward slopes, are dynamically important for its occurrence. This paper focuses on the thermodynamic character of the atmospheric environment associated with shallow orographic heavy rainfall. The precipitation-top heights of orographic heavy rainfall generally decrease with low- and mid-level relative humidity especially for coastal mesoscale mountain ranges during summer monsoon. This differs from what has been observed for convection over the tropical ocean in previous studies, but is consistent with abundant shallow convection during the moist summer monsoon season. In contrast, the precipitation-top heights over Annam Cordillera during the transition phase from boreal summer to winter monsoon seasons, facing the prevailing northeasterly, increase with low-level and mid-level relative humidity, demonstrating that convection depth is not a simple function of humidity. The precipitation-top heights of orographic heavy rainfall decrease with the low-level stability for all regions considered in this study as well as Annam Cordillera during the transition phase from boreal summer to winter monsoon seasons. Therefore, low-level static stability, which inhibits cloud growth and promotes cloud detrainment, is inferred to be an equally important parameter in determining the precipitation-top heights.

  2. Competing influences of greenhouse warming and aerosols on Asian summer monsoon circulation and rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, William Ka-Ming; Kim, Kyu-Myong

    2017-05-01

    In this paper, we have compared and contrasted competing influences of greenhouse gases (GHG) warming and aerosol forcing on Asian summer monsoon circulation and rainfall based on CMIP5 historical simulations. Under GHG-only forcing, the land warms much faster than the ocean, magnifying the pre-industrial climatological land-ocean thermal contrast and hemispheric asymmetry, i.e., warmer northern than southern hemisphere. A steady increasing warm-ocean-warmer-land (WOWL) trend has been in effect since the 1950's substantially increasing moisture transport from adjacent oceans, and enhancing rainfall over the Asian monsoon regions. However, under GHG warming, increased atmospheric stability due to strong reduction in mid-tropospheric and near surface relative humidity coupled to an expanding subsidence areas, associated with the Deep Tropical Squeeze (DTS, Lau and Kim, 2015b) strongly suppress monsoon convection and rainfall over subtropical and extratropical land, leading to a weakening of the Asian monsoon meridional circulation. Increased anthropogenic aerosol emission strongly masks WOWL, by over 60% over the northern hemisphere, negating to a large extent the rainfall increase due to GHG warming, and leading to a further weakening of the monsoon circulation, through increasing atmospheric stability, most likely associated with aerosol solar dimming and semi-direct effects. Overall, we find that GHG exerts stronger positive rainfall sensitivity, but less negative circulation sensitivity in SASM compared to EASM. In contrast, aerosols exert stronger negative impacts on rainfall, but less negative impacts on circulation in EASM compared to SASM.

  3. Consistent increase in Indian monsoon rainfall and its variability across CMIP-5 models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Menon

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The possibility of an impact of global warming on the Indian monsoon is of critical importance for the large population of this region. Future projections within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP-3 showed a wide range of trends with varying magnitude and sign across models. Here the Indian summer monsoon rainfall is evaluated in 20 CMIP-5 models for the period 1850 to 2100. In the new generation of climate models a consistent increase in seasonal mean rainfall during the summer monsoon periods arises. All models simulate stronger seasonal mean rainfall in the future compared to the historic period under the strongest warming scenario RCP-8.5. Increase in seasonal mean rainfall is the largest for the RCP-8.5 scenario compared to other RCPs. The interannual variability of the Indian monsoon rainfall also shows a consistent positive trend under unabated global warming. Since both the long-term increase in monsoon rainfall as well as the increase in interannual variability in the future is robust across a wide range of models, some confidence can be attributed to these projected trends.

  4. On the recent strengthening of the relationship between ENSO and northeast monsoon rainfall over South Asia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kumar, Pankaj; Rupa Kumar, K.; Sahai, A.K. [Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune (India); Rajeevan, M. [India Meteorological Department, Pune (India)

    2007-05-15

    The southeastern parts of India and Sri Lanka receive substantial rainfall from the northeast monsoon (NEM) during October through December. The interannual variability in NEM rainfall is known to be significantly influenced by the El-Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Unlike the southwest monsoon (SWM), the NEM rainfall is enhanced during the warm ENSO events, and vice versa. In the context of the recent weakening of the inverse relationship between Southwest Monsoon (SWM) and ENSO, we examine the secular variations in the positive relationship between ENSO and NEM rainfall over South Asia, showing that their relationship has strengthened over the recent years. Based on the analysis of GISST, IMD/CRU precipitation and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, we suggest that this secular variation of the relationship is due to epochal changes in the tropospheric circulation associated with ENSO over the region. (orig.)

  5. Global warming and South Indian monsoon rainfall-lessons from the Mid-Miocene.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reuter, Markus; Kern, Andrea K; Harzhauser, Mathias; Kroh, Andreas; Piller, Werner E

    2013-04-01

    Precipitation over India is driven by the Indian monsoon. Although changes in this atmospheric circulation are caused by the differential seasonal diabatic heating of Asia and the Indo-Pacific Ocean, it is so far unknown how global warming influences the monsoon rainfalls regionally. Herein, we present a Miocene pollen flora as the first direct proxy for monsoon over southern India during the Middle Miocene Climate Optimum. To identify climatic key parameters, such as mean annual temperature, warmest month temperature, coldest month temperature, mean annual precipitation, mean precipitation during the driest month, mean precipitation during the wettest month and mean precipitation during the warmest month the Coexistence Approach is applied. Irrespective of a ~ 3-4 °C higher global temperature during the Middle Miocene Climate Optimum, the results indicate a modern-like monsoonal precipitation pattern contrasting marine proxies which point to a strong decline of Indian monsoon in the Himalaya at this time. Therefore, the strength of monsoon rainfall in tropical India appears neither to be related to global warming nor to be linked with the atmospheric conditions over the Tibetan Plateau. For the future it implies that increased global warming does not necessarily entail changes in the South Indian monsoon rainfall.

  6. Relationship between summer monsoon rainfall and cyclogenesis over Bay of Bengal during post-monsoon (October–December) season

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Y Sadhuram; K Maneesha

    2016-10-01

    In this study, an attempt has been made to examine the relationship between summer monsoon rainfall (June–September) and the total number of depressions, cyclones and severe cyclones (TNDC) over Bay of Bengal during the post-monsoon (October–December) season. The seasonal rainfall of the subdivisions (located in south India) (referred as rainfall index – RI), is positively and significantly correlated(r = 0.59; significant at >99% level) with the TNDC during the period, 1984–2013. By using the first differences (current season minus previous season), the correlations are enhanced and a remarkably high correlation of 0.87 is observed between TNDC and RI for the recent period, 1993–2013. The average seasonalgenesis potential parameter (GPP) showed a very high correlation of 0.84 with the TNDC. A very high correlation of 0.83 is observed between GPP and RI for the period, 1993–2013. The relative vorticity and mid-tropospheric relative humidity are found to be the dominant terms in GPP. The GPP was 3.5 times higher in above (below) normal RI in which TNDC was 4 (2). It is inferred that RI is playing a keyrole in TNDC by modulating the environmental conditions (low level vorticity and relative humidity) over Bay of Bengal during post-monsoon season which could be seen from the very high correlation of 0.87 (which explains 76% variability in TNDC). For the first time, we show that RI is a precursor for the TNDC over Bay of Bengal during post-monsoon season. Strong westerlies after the SW monsoon seasontransport moisture over the subdivisions towards Bay of Bengal due to cyclonic circulation. This circulation favours upward motion and hence transport moisture vertically to mid-troposphere which causes convective instability and this in turn favour more number of TNDC, under above-normal RI year.

  7. Relationship between summer monsoon rainfall and cyclogenesis over Bay of Bengal during post-monsoon (October-December) season

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sadhuram, Y.; Maneesha, K.

    2016-10-01

    In this study, an attempt has been made to examine the relationship between summer monsoon rainfall (June-September) and the total number of depressions, cyclones and severe cyclones (TNDC) over Bay of Bengal during the post-monsoon (October-December) season. The seasonal rainfall of the subdivisions (located in south India) (referred as rainfall index - RI), is positively and significantly correlated ( r=0.59; significant at >99% level) with the TNDC during the period, 1984-2013. By using the first differences (current season minus previous season), the correlations are enhanced and a remarkably high correlation of 0.87 is observed between TNDC and RI for the recent period, 1993-2013. The average seasonal genesis potential parameter (GPP) showed a very high correlation of 0.84 with the TNDC. A very high correlation of 0.83 is observed between GPP and RI for the period, 1993-2013. The relative vorticity and mid-tropospheric relative humidity are found to be the dominant terms in GPP. The GPP was 3.5 times higher in above (below) normal RI in which TNDC was 4 (2). It is inferred that RI is playing a key role in TNDC by modulating the environmental conditions (low level vorticity and relative humidity) over Bay of Bengal during post-monsoon season which could be seen from the very high correlation of 0.87 (which explains 76% variability in TNDC). For the first time, we show that RI is a precursor for the TNDC over Bay of Bengal during post-monsoon season. Strong westerlies after the SW monsoon season transport moisture over the subdivisions towards Bay of Bengal due to cyclonic circulation. This circulation favours upward motion and hence transport moisture vertically to mid-troposphere which causes convective instability and this in turn favour more number of TNDC, under above-normal RI year.

  8. Relationship between summer monsoon rainfall and cyclogenesis over Bay of Bengal during post-monsoon (October-December) season

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sadhuram, Y.; Maneesha, K.

    2016-09-01

    In this study, an attempt has been made to examine the relationship between summer monsoon rainfall (June-September) and the total number of depressions, cyclones and severe cyclones (TNDC) over Bay of Bengal during the post-monsoon (October-December) season. The seasonal rainfall of the subdivisions (located in south India) (referred as rainfall index - RI), is positively and significantly correlated (r=0.59; significant at >99% level) with the TNDC during the period, 1984-2013. By using the first differences (current season minus previous season), the correlations are enhanced and a remarkably high correlation of 0.87 is observed between TNDC and RI for the recent period, 1993-2013. The average seasonal genesis potential parameter (GPP) showed a very high correlation of 0.84 with the TNDC. A very high correlation of 0.83 is observed between GPP and RI for the period, 1993-2013. The relative vorticity and mid-tropospheric relative humidity are found to be the dominant terms in GPP. The GPP was 3.5 times higher in above (below) normal RI in which TNDC was 4 (2). It is inferred that RI is playing a key role in TNDC by modulating the environmental conditions (low level vorticity and relative humidity) over Bay of Bengal during post-monsoon season which could be seen from the very high correlation of 0.87 (which explains 76% variability in TNDC). For the first time, we show that RI is a precursor for the TNDC over Bay of Bengal during post-monsoon season. Strong westerlies after the SW monsoon season transport moisture over the subdivisions towards Bay of Bengal due to cyclonic circulation. This circulation favours upward motion and hence transport moisture vertically to mid-troposphere which causes convective instability and this in turn favour more number of TNDC, under above-normal RI year.

  9. Observed and Forecasted Intraseasonal Activity of Southwest Monsoon Rainfall over India During 2010, 2011 and 2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pattanaik, D. R.; Rathore, L. S.; Kumar, Arun

    2013-12-01

    The monsoon seasons of 2010 and 2011, with almost identical seasonal total rainfall over India from June to September, are associated with slightly different patterns of intraseasonal rainfall fluctuations. Similarly, the year 2012, with relatively less rainfall compared to 2010 and 2011, also witnessed different intraseasonal rainfall fluctuations, leading to drought-like situations over some parts of the country. The present article discusses the forecasting aspect of monsoon activity over India during these 3 years on an extended range time scale (up to 3 weeks) by using the multimodel ensemble (MME), based on operational coupled model outputs from the ECMWF monthly forecasting system and the NCEP's Climate Forecast System (CFS). The average correlation coefficient (CC) of weekly observed all-India rainfall (AIR) and the corresponding MME forecast AIR is found to be significant, above the 98 % level up to 2 weeks (up to 18 days) with a slight positive CC for the week 3 (days 19-25) forecast. However, like the variation of observed intraseasonal rainfall fluctuations during 2010, 2011 and 2012 monsoon seasons, the MME forecast skills of weekly AIR are also found to be different from one another, with the 2012 monsoon season indicating significant CC (above 99 % level) up to week 2 (12-18 days), and also a comparatively higher CC (0.45) during the week 3 forecast (days 19-25). The average CC between observed and forecasted weekly AIR rainfall over four homogeneous regions of India is found to be the lowest over the southern peninsula of India (SPI), and northeast India (NEI) is found to be significant only for the week 1 (days 5-11) forecast. However, the CC is found to be significant over northwest India (NWI) and central India (CEI), at least above the 90 % level up to 18 days, with NWI having slightly better skill compared to the CEI. For the individual monsoon seasons of 2010, 2011 and 2012, there is some variation in CC and other skill scores over the four

  10. The asymmetry of rainfall process

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YU RuCong; YUAN WeiHua; LI Jian

    2013-01-01

    Using hourly station rain gauge data in the warm season (May-October) during 1961-2006,the climatological features of the evolution of the rainfall process are analyzed by compositing rainfall events centered on the maximum hourly rainfall amount of each event.The results reveal that the rainfall process is asymmetric,which means rainfall events usually reach the maximum in a short period and then experience a relatively longer retreat to the end of the event.The effects of rainfall intensity,duration and peak time,as well as topography,are also considered.It is found that the asymmetry is more obvious in rainfall events with strong intensity and over areas with complex terrain,such as the eastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau,the Hengduan Mountains,and the Yungui Plateau.The asymmetry in short-duration rainfall is more obvious than that in long-duration rainfall,but the regional differences are weaker.The rainfall events that reach the maximum during 14:00-02:00 LST exhibit the strongest asymmetry and those during 08:00-14:00 LST show the weakest asymmetry.The rainfall intensity at the peak time stands out,which means that the rainfall intensity increases and decreases quickly both before and after the peak.These results can improve understanding of the rainfall process and provide metrics for the evaluation of climate models.Moreover,the strong asymmetry of the rainfall process should be highly noted when taking measures to defending against geological hazards,such as collapses,landslides and debris flows throughout southwestern China.

  11. Some characteristics of very heavy rainfall over Orissa during summer monsoon season

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    M Mohapatra; U C Mohanty

    2005-02-01

    Orissa is one of the most flood prone states of India. The floods in Orissa mostly occur during monsoon season due to very heavy rainfall caused by synoptic scale monsoon disturbances. Hence a study is undertaken to find out the characteristic features of very heavy rainfall (24 hours rainfall ≥ 125mm) over Orissa during summer monsoon season (June-September) by analysing 20 years (1980-1999) daily rainfall data of different stations in Orissa. The principal objective of this study is to find out the role of synoptic scale monsoon disturbances in spatial and temporal variability of very heavy rainfall over Orissa. Most of the very heavy rainfall events occur in July and August. The region, extending from central part of coastal Orissa in the southeast towards Sambalpur district in the northwest, experiences higher frequency and higher intensity of very heavy rainfall with less interannual variability. It is due to the fact that most of the causative synoptic disturbances like low pressure systems (LPS) develop over northwest (NW) Bay of Bengal with minimum interannual variation and the monsoon trough extends in west-northwesterly direction from the centre of the system. The very heavy rainfall occurs more frequently with less interannual variability on the western side of Eastern Ghat during all the months and the season except September. It occurs more frequently with less interannual variability on the eastern side of Eastern Ghat during September. The NW Bay followed by Gangetic West Bengal/Orissa is the most favourable region of LPS to cause very heavy rainfall over different parts of Orissa except eastern side of Eastern Ghat. The NW Bay and west central (WC) Bay are equally favourable regions of LPS to cause very heavy rainfall over eastern side of Eastern Ghat. The frequency of very heavy rain-fall does not show any significant trend in recent years over Orissa except some places in north-east Orissa which exhibit significant rising trend in all the

  12. Meso-scale distribution of summer monsoon rainfall near the Western Ghats (India)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patwardhan, S. K.; Asnani, G. C.

    2000-04-01

    The spatial distribution of southwest monsoon rainfall is studied over Maharashtra State (India), which includes part of the well-known Western Ghats mountain range, near its western boundary, running almost from north to south, perpendicular to the summer monsoon current in the lower troposphere. Meso-scale analysis of daily rainfall is performed for Maharashtra State, including the Western Ghats, for the two mid-monsoon months of July and August, during the 10-year period of 1971-1980. Strong and weak monsoon days were identified for the 5-year period of 1976-1980. The meso-scale pattern of average daily rainfall is obtained separately for strong and for weak monsoon conditions.All these average patterns show the following features: (i) the rainfall increases rapidly from the Arabian Sea coast close to the line of maximum height of the Western Ghats; (ii) there are two rainfall maxima corresponding to the two mountain peaks parallel to the coast line; (iii) between the two mountain peaks, there is a valley which is narrow at the western end (upwind end), broadening towards the east (on the downwind side). Ground contour height of the valley rises eastwards and ends as a part of the Deccan Plateau east of the Ghats. Here the valley opens out like a funnel with higher mountains flanking its two sides. In the valley, the rainfall increases from the coast up to the line of maximum height of the Ghats, and then decreases eastwards towards the plateau. The rainfall isopleths also take a funnel-shaped configuration. An interesting feature is that near the wider section of the valley funnel, there is a rainfall minimum and then the rainfall increases further eastwards on the downwind side. This feature of rainfall minimum is somewhat similar to the rainfall minimum reported by Asnani and Kinuthia (personal communication); Asnani (Asnani GC. 1993. Tropical Meteorology, Vol. I. Prof. G.C. Asnani: Pune, India; 603) attributed the rainfall minimum to the Bernoulli effect. A

  13. Spatio-temporal variability of summer monsoon rainfall over Orissa in relation to low pressure systems

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    M Mohapatra; U C Mohanty

    2006-04-01

    The summer monsoon rainfall over Orissa occurs mostly due to low pressure systems (LPS)developing over the Bay of Bengal and moving along the monsoon trough.A study is hence undertaken to find out characteristic features of the relationship between LPS over different regions and rainfall over Orissa during the summer monsoon season (June-September).For this purpose,rainfall and rainy days over 31 selected stations in Orissa and LPS days over Orissa and adjoining land and sea regions during different monsoon months and the season as a whole over a period of 20 years (1980-1999)are analysed.The principal objective of this study is to find out the role of LPS on spatial and temporal variability of summer monsoon rainfall over Orissa. The rainfall has been significantly less than normal over most parts of Orissa except the eastern side of Eastern Ghats during July and hence during the season as a whole due to a significantly less number of LPS days over northwest Bay in July over the period of 1980-1999.The seasonal rainfall shows higher interannual variation (increase in coefficient of variation by about 5%)during 1980-1999 than that during 1901-1990 over most parts of Orissa except northeast Orissa.Most parts of Orissa,especially the region extending from central part of coastal Orissa to western Orissa (central zone)and western side of the Eastern Ghats get more seasonal monsoon rainfall with the development and persistence of LPS over northwest Bay and their subsequent movement and persistence over Orissa.The north Orissa adjoining central zone also gets more seasonal rainfall with development and persistence of LPS over northwest Bay.While the seasonal rainfall over the western side of the Eastern Ghats is adversely affected due to increase in LPS days over west central Bay,Jharkhand and Bangladesh,that over the eastern side of the Eastern Ghats is adversely affected due to increase in LPS days over all the regions to the north of Orissa.There are signi

  14. Propagation and effects of monsoonal seasonally intense rainfall signal in river strata

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plink-Bjorklund, P.

    2014-12-01

    Climatic forcing signals in river systems tend to be modified on different temporal and spatial scales due to inherent signal buffering, re-routing, and a complex mixing of multiple autogenic and allogenic signals. Thus climate forcing response is generally assumed inherently non-linear with significant hysteresis effects. This paper explores propagation and effects of monsoonal, seasonally intense rainfall signal in river strata in the monsoonal and bordering subtropical domains. Some such rivers occur completely within the monsoon climate zone. Others have parts of their drainages in temperate climate zones, or on high elevations and receive some of their water discharge from other sources. Yet others, have their upstream drainages in the tropical monsoon climates, but flow through bordering subtropical drylands. Yet, all these rivers characteristically experience seasonal high magnitude floods as the effect of intense monsoon precipitation. Many rivers in the bordering subtropical zone receive monsoon rain and transmit discharge only during abnormal or strengthened monsoon seasons and associated cyclonic flow. Field datasets, comparison to modern river deposits and a literature review of monsoonal and bordering subtropical domain rivers reveal that the effects of the intense seasonal monsoon rain and the resultant flooding are readily recognizable in modern and ancient fluvial strata. This paper argues that this distinct and dominant climate signal propagation occurs because it is the monsoon discharge that is commonly responsible for up to 100% of sediment erosion, transport and deposition, creating a system wide flushing or splash effect on a single season to multi-million year time scale. The distinct monsoon flood deposits are interbedded with other types of fluvial strata in systems where significant deposition also occurs from low-magnitude flood or non-flood discharges.

  15. Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall: Implications of Contrasting Trends in the Spatial Variability of Means and Extremes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Subimal Ghosh

    Full Text Available India's agricultural output, economy, and societal well-being are strappingly dependent on the stability of summer monsoon rainfall, its variability and extremes. Spatial aggregate of intensity and frequency of extreme rainfall events over Central India are significantly increasing, while at local scale they are spatially non-uniform with increasing spatial variability. The reasons behind such increase in spatial variability of extremes are poorly understood and the trends in mean monsoon rainfall have been greatly overlooked. Here, by using multi-decadal gridded daily rainfall data over entire India, we show that the trend in spatial variability of mean monsoon rainfall is decreasing as exactly opposite to that of extremes. The spatial variability of extremes is attributed to the spatial variability of the convective rainfall component. Contrarily, the decrease in spatial variability of the mean rainfall over India poses a pertinent research question on the applicability of large scale inter-basin water transfer by river inter-linking to address the spatial variability of available water in India. We found a significant decrease in the monsoon rainfall over major water surplus river basins in India. Hydrological simulations using a Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC model also revealed that the water yield in surplus river basins is decreasing but it is increasing in deficit basins. These findings contradict the traditional notion of dry areas becoming drier and wet areas becoming wetter in response to climate change in India. This result also calls for a re-evaluation of planning for river inter-linking to supply water from surplus to deficit river basins.

  16. Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall: Implications of Contrasting Trends in the Spatial Variability of Means and Extremes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghosh, Subimal; Vittal, H; Sharma, Tarul; Karmakar, Subhankar; Kasiviswanathan, K S; Dhanesh, Y; Sudheer, K P; Gunthe, S S

    2016-01-01

    India's agricultural output, economy, and societal well-being are strappingly dependent on the stability of summer monsoon rainfall, its variability and extremes. Spatial aggregate of intensity and frequency of extreme rainfall events over Central India are significantly increasing, while at local scale they are spatially non-uniform with increasing spatial variability. The reasons behind such increase in spatial variability of extremes are poorly understood and the trends in mean monsoon rainfall have been greatly overlooked. Here, by using multi-decadal gridded daily rainfall data over entire India, we show that the trend in spatial variability of mean monsoon rainfall is decreasing as exactly opposite to that of extremes. The spatial variability of extremes is attributed to the spatial variability of the convective rainfall component. Contrarily, the decrease in spatial variability of the mean rainfall over India poses a pertinent research question on the applicability of large scale inter-basin water transfer by river inter-linking to address the spatial variability of available water in India. We found a significant decrease in the monsoon rainfall over major water surplus river basins in India. Hydrological simulations using a Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model also revealed that the water yield in surplus river basins is decreasing but it is increasing in deficit basins. These findings contradict the traditional notion of dry areas becoming drier and wet areas becoming wetter in response to climate change in India. This result also calls for a re-evaluation of planning for river inter-linking to supply water from surplus to deficit river basins.

  17. The Indian summer monsoon rainfall: interplay of coupled dynamics, radiation and cloud microphysics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. K. Patra

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available The Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR, which has a strong connection to agricultural food production, has been less predictable by conventional models in recent times. Two distinct years 2002 and 2003 with lower and higher July rainfall, respectively, are selected to help understand the natural and anthropogenic influences on ISMR. We show that heating gradients along the meridional monsoon circulation are reduced due to aerosol radiative forcing and the Indian Ocean Dipole in 2002. An increase in the dust and biomass-burning component of the aerosols through the zonal monsoon circulation resulted in reduction of cloud droplet growth in July 2002. These conditions were opposite to those in July 2003 which led to an above average ISMR. In this study, we have utilized NCEP/NCAR reanalyses for meteorological data (e.g. sea-surface temperature, horizontal winds, and precipitable water, NOAA interpolated outgoing long-wave radiation, IITM constructed all-India rainfall amounts, aerosol parameters as observed from the TOMS and MODIS satellites, and ATSR fire count maps. Based on this analysis, we suggest that monsoon rainfall prediction models should include synoptic as well as interannual variability in both atmospheric dynamics and chemical composition.

  18. The Indian summer monsoon rainfall: interplay of coupled dynamics, radiation and cloud microphysics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patra, P. K.; Behera, S. K.; Herman, J. R.; Maksyutov, S.; Akimoto, H.; Yamagata, Y.

    2005-08-01

    The Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR), which has a strong connection to agricultural food production, has been less predictable by conventional models in recent times. Two distinct years 2002 and 2003 with lower and higher July rainfall, respectively, are selected to help understand the natural and anthropogenic influences on ISMR. We show that heating gradients along the meridional monsoon circulation are reduced due to aerosol radiative forcing and the Indian Ocean Dipole in 2002. An increase in the dust and biomass-burning component of the aerosols through the zonal monsoon circulation resulted in reduction of cloud droplet growth in July 2002. These conditions were opposite to those in July 2003 which led to an above average ISMR. In this study, we have utilized NCEP/NCAR reanalyses for meteorological data (e.g. sea-surface temperature, horizontal winds, and precipitable water), NOAA interpolated outgoing long-wave radiation, IITM constructed all-India rainfall amounts, aerosol parameters as observed from the TOMS and MODIS satellites, and ATSR fire count maps. Based on this analysis, we suggest that monsoon rainfall prediction models should include synoptic as well as interannual variability in both atmospheric dynamics and chemical composition.

  19. Long range forecasting of summer monsoon rainfall from SST in the central equatorial Indian Ocean

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Sadhuram, Y.; Murthy, T.V.R.

    relationshipbetweenEasternEquatorialPacificSea surface temperature and rainfall over India and Sri Lanka', Mon. Wea.Rev., Vol. 111, pp.517-528. 7. Goswami, B.N., 1998, 'Interannual variations of Indian summer monsoon in GCM: External Conditionsversus InternalFeedbacks...

  20. Impact of 1990-'95 ENSO/WEPO event on Indian monsoon rainfall

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Gopinathan, C.K.

    years. In case of earlier 11 ENSO events, the Indian South West Monsoon Rainfall (ISWMR) was below normal in 73% cases and above normal only 9% of the cases during the starting year of the negative epoch. The ISWMR was slightly above normal in 1990...

  1. Sea breeze Initiated Rainfall over the east Coast of India during the Indian Southwest Monsoon

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Simpson, M; Warrior, H; Raman, S; Aswathanarayana, P A; Mohanty, U C; Suresh, R

    2006-09-05

    Sea breeze initiated convection and precipitation is investigated along the east coast of India during the Indian southwest monsoon season. The sea breeze circulations are observed approximately 70 to 80% of the days during the summer months (June to August) along the Chennai coast. Observations of average sea breeze wind speeds are stronger at a rural location as compared to the wind speeds observed inside the urban region of Chennai. The sea breeze circulation is shown to be the dominant mechanism for initiating rainfall during the Indian southwest monsoon season. Roughly 80% of the total rainfall observed during the southwest monsoon over Chennai is directly related to the convection initiated by sea breeze circulation.

  2. The possible influence of solar activity on Indian summer monsoon rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lihua, Ma; Yanben, Han; Zhiqiang, Yin

    2007-09-01

    The Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) plays an important role in the climate system of South Asia. Recently, studies about ISMR variations have been going into more depth. In this present paper, we mainly use the Scargle periodogram and wavelet transform methods to study the periodicity of ISMR changes between 1871 and 2004 and review the possible influence of solar activity on the rainfall. Analysis results show complicated ISMR variations have periodicities with remarkable time-variable characteristics. Investigating a possible connection between the rainfall and solar variations, we believe that solar activity affects the ISMR variations to some extent.

  3. Pleistocene Indian Monsoon rainfall variability dominated by obliquity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gebregiorgis, D.; Hathorne, E. C.; Giosan, L.; Collett, T. S.; Nuernberg, D.; Frank, M.

    2015-12-01

    The past variability of the Indian Monsoon is mostly known from records of wind strength over the Arabian Sea while Quaternary proxy records of Indian monsoon precipitation are still lacking. Here we utilize scanning x-ray fluorescence (XRF) data from a sediment core obtained by the IODP vessel JOIDES Resolution in the Andaman Sea (Site 17) to investigate changes in sediment supply from the peak monsoon precipitation regions to the core site. We use Ti/Ca and K/Rb ratios to trace changes in terrigenous flux and weathering regime, respectively, while Zr/Rb ratios suggest grain size variations. The age model of Site 17 is based on correlation of benthic C. wuellerstorfi/C. mundulus δ18O data to the LR04 global benthic δ18O stack at a resolution of ~3 kyr (Lisiecki and Raymo, 2005) for the last 2 Myrs. In its youngest part the age model is supported by five 14C ages on planktic foraminifera and the youngest Toba ash layer (Ali et al., 2015) resulting in a nearly constant sedimentation rate of ~6.5 cm/kyr. Frequency analysis of the 4 mm resolution Ti/Ca, K/Rb, and Zr/Rb time series using the REDFIT program (Schulz and Mudelsee, 2002), reveals the three main Milankovitch orbital cycles above the 90% confidence level. Depth domain spectral analysis reveals the presence of significant cyclicity at wavelengths of 28.5 and 2.8 m corresponding to the ~400 kyr and ~41 kyr cycles, respectively, during the last 2 Myr. These records suggest that Indian monsoon variability has varied in the obliquity and eccentricity bands, the latter in particular after the mid Pleistocene transition (MPT), while strong precession forcing is lacking in this super-high resolution record. Northern summer insolation and Southern Hemisphere latent heat export are out of phase during precessional cycles, but in phase in the obliquity band, which indicates that Indian monsoon precipitation has likely been more sensitive to both NH pull and SH push mechanisms (Clemens and Prell, 2003). References Ali

  4. Local and remote impacts of aerosol species on Indian summer monsoon rainfall in a GCM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Liang; Turner, Andrew; Highwood, Eleanor

    2016-04-01

    The HadGEM2 AGCM is used to determine the most important anthropogenic aerosols in the Indian monsoon using experiments in which observed trends in individual aerosol species are imposed. Sulphur dioxide (SD) emissions are shown to impact rainfall more strongly than black carbon (BC) aerosols, causing reduced rainfall especially over northern India. Significant perturbations due to BC are not noted until its emissions are scaled up in a sensitivity test, in which rainfall increases over northern India as a result of the Elevated Heat Pump mechanism, enhancing convection during the pre-monsoon and bringing forward the monsoon onset. Secondly, the impact of anthropogenic aerosols is compared to that of increasing greenhouse-gas concentrations and observed sea-surface temperature (SST) warming. The tropospheric temperature gradient driving the monsoon shows weakening when forced by either SD or imposed SST trends. However the observed SST trend is dominated by warming in the deep tropics; when the component of SST trend related to aerosol emissions is removed, further warming is found in the extratropical northern hemisphere that tends to offset monsoon weakening. This suggests caution is needed when using SST forcing as a proxy for greenhouse warming. Finally, aerosol emissions are decomposed into those from the Indian region and those elsewhere, in pairs of experiments with SD and BC. Both local and remote aerosol emissions are found to lead to rainfall changes over India; for SD, remote aerosols contribute around 75% of the rainfall decrease over India, while for BC the remote forcing is even more dominant.

  5. Fingerprinting the Impacts of Aerosols on Long-Term Trends of the Indian Summer Monsoon Regional Rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laul, K. M.; Kim, K. M.

    2010-01-01

    In this paper, we present corroborative observational evidences from satellites, in-situ observations, and re-analysis data showing possible impacts of absorbing aerosols (black carbon and dust) on subseasonal and regional summer monsoon rainfall over India. We find that increased absorbing aerosols in the Indo-Gangetic Plain in recent decades may have lead to long-term warming of the upper troposphere over northern India and the Tibetan Plateau, enhanced rainfall in northern India and the Himalayas foothill regions in the early part (may-June) of the monsoon season, followed by diminished rainfall over central and southern India in the latter part (July-August) of the monsoon season. These signals which are consistent with current theories of atmospheric heating and solar dimming by aerosol and induced cloudiness in modulating the Indian monsoon, would have been masked by conventional method of using al-India rainfall averaged over the entire monsoon season.

  6. Prediction model for peninsular Indian summer monsoon rainfall using data mining and statistical approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vathsala, H.; Koolagudi, Shashidhar G.

    2017-01-01

    In this paper we discuss a data mining application for predicting peninsular Indian summer monsoon rainfall, and propose an algorithm that combine data mining and statistical techniques. We select likely predictors based on association rules that have the highest confidence levels. We then cluster the selected predictors to reduce their dimensions and use cluster membership values for classification. We derive the predictors from local conditions in southern India, including mean sea level pressure, wind speed, and maximum and minimum temperatures. The global condition variables include southern oscillation and Indian Ocean dipole conditions. The algorithm predicts rainfall in five categories: Flood, Excess, Normal, Deficit and Drought. We use closed itemset mining, cluster membership calculations and a multilayer perceptron function in the algorithm to predict monsoon rainfall in peninsular India. Using Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology data, we found the prediction accuracy of our proposed approach to be exceptionally good.

  7. Long Range Forecast on South West Monsoon Rainfall using Artificial Neural Networks based on Clustering Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maya L. Pai

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study is to forecast Southwest Indian Monsoon rainfall based on sea surface temperature, sea level pressure, humidity and zonal (u and meridional (v winds. With the aforementioned parameters given as input to an Artificial Neural Network (ANN, the rainfall within 10x10 grids of southwest Indian regions is predicted by means of one of the most efficient clustering methods, namely the Kohonen Self-Organizing Maps (SOM. The ANN is trained with input parameters spanning for 36 years (1960-1995 and tested and validated for a period of 9 years (1996-2004. It is further used to predict the rainfall for 6 years (2005-2010. The results show reasonably good accuracy for the summer monsoon periods June, July, August and September (JJAS of the validation years.

  8. Prediction of seasonal summer monsoon rainfall over homogenous regions of India using dynamical prediction system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramu, Dandi A.; Rao, Suryachadra A.; Pillai, Prasanth A.; Pradhan, M.; George, G.; Rao, D. Nagarguna; Mahapatra, S.; Pai, D. S.; Rajeevan, M.

    2017-03-01

    Seasonal prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall is a challenging task for the modeling community and predicting seasonal mean rainfall at smaller regional scale is much more difficult than predicting all India averaged seasonal mean rainfall. The regional scale prediction of summer monsoon mean rainfall at longer lead time (e.g., predicting 3-4 months in advance) can play a vital role in planning of hydrological and agriculture aspects of the society. Previous attempts for predicting seasonal mean rainfall at regional level (over 5 Homogeneous regions) have resulted with limited success (anomaly correlation coefficient is low, ACC ≈ 0.1-0.4, even at a short lead time of one month). The high resolution Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2) model, with spectral resolution of T382 (∼38 km), can predict the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) at lead time of 3-4 months, with a reasonably good prediction skill (ACC ≈ 0.55). In the present study, we have investigated whether the seasonal mean rainfall over different homogenous regions is predictable using the same model, at 3-4 months lead time? Out of five homogeneous regions of India three regions have shown moderate prediction skill, even at 3 months lead time. Compared to lower resolution model, high resolution model has good skill for all the regions except south peninsular India. High resolution model is able to capture the extreme events and also the teleconnections associated with large scale features at four months lead time and hence shows better skill (ACC ≈ 0.45) in predicting the seasonal mean rainfall over homogeneous regions.

  9. Seasonal prediction of summer monsoon rainfall over cluster regions of India

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    S B Kakade; Ashwini Kulkarni

    2017-04-01

    Shared nearest neighbour (SNN) cluster algorithm has been applied to seasonal (June–September) rainfall departures over 30 sub-divisions of India to identify the contiguous homogeneous cluster regions over India. Five cluster regions are identified. Rainfall departure series for these cluster regions are prepared by area weighted average rainfall departures over respective sub-divisions in each cluster. The interannual and decadal variability in rainfall departures over five cluster regions is discussed. In order to consider the combined effect of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Southern Oscillation (SO), an index called effective strength index (ESI) has been defined. It has been observed that the circulation is drastically different in positive and negative phases of ESI-tendency from January to April. Hence, for each phaseof ESI-tendency (positive and negative), separate prediction models have been developed for predicting summer monsoon rainfall over identified clusters. The performance of these models have been tested and found to be encouraging.

  10. Multiscale characteristics of the rainy season rainfall and interdecadal decaying of summer monsoon in North China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    DAI Xingang; WANG Ping; CHOU Jifan

    2003-01-01

    This paper focuses on the rainfall spectrum and its evolution of North China in rainy season with summer monsoon decaying in interdecadal time scale. The interannual component of the rainfall is the dominant part, accounting for 85% of the total variance, and has been changed significantly during the last 30 years. According to wavelet analysis its 5a periodic spectrum suddenly disappeared in the late 1960s, and its biennial oscillation gradually become weaker and weaker since 1970, accompanied by the summer monsoon decaying. Contrarily, the interdecadal component is principal in the summer monsoon over North China and is very similar to the counterpart of the rainfall. Their interdecadal parts are significantly correlated, and the correlation coefficient is nearly equal to the one of the original sequences. Besides, the dry and wet climate alternated with the monsoon abrupt changes in the 1960s and the 1970s over East Asia, apart from North China, climate drifted from a light drought to a severe drought during the past 30 years.

  11. A prominent pattern of year-to-year variability in Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mishra, Vimal; Smoliak, Brian V; Lettenmaier, Dennis P; Wallace, John M

    2012-05-08

    The dominant patterns of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) and their relationships with the sea surface temperature and 850-hPa wind fields are examined using gridded datasets from 1900 on. The two leading empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) of ISMR over India are used as basis functions for elucidating these relationships. EOF1 is highly correlated with all India rainfall and El Niño-Southern Oscillation indices. EOF2 involves rainfall anomalies of opposing polarity over the Gangetic Plain and peninsular India. The spatial pattern of the trends in ISMR from 1950 on shows drying over the Gangetic Plain projects onto EOF2, with an expansion coefficient that exhibits a pronounced trend during this period. EOF2 is coupled with the dominant pattern of sea surface temperature variability over the Indian Ocean sector, which involves in-phase fluctuations over the Arabian Sea, the Bay of Bengal, and the South China Sea, and it is correlated with the previous winter's El Niño-Southern Oscillation indices. The circulation anomalies observed in association with fluctuations in the time-varying indices of EOF1 and EOF2 both involve distortions of the low-level monsoon flow. EOF1 in its positive polarity represents a southward deflection of moist, westerly monsoon flow from the Arabian Sea across India, resulting in a smaller flux of moisture to the Himalayas. EOF2 in its positive polarity represents a weakening of the monsoon trough over northeastern India and the westerly monsoon flow across southern India, reminiscent of the circulation anomalies observed during break periods within the monsoon season.

  12. Effect of climate change on seasonal monsoon in Asia and its impact on the variability of monsoon rainfall in Southeast Asia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yen Yi Loo

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Global warming and climate change is one of the most extensively researched and discussed topical issues affecting the environment. Although there are enough historical evidence to support the theory that climate change is a natural phenomenon, many research scientists are widely in agreement that the increase in temperature in the 20th century is anthropologically related. The associated effects are the variability of rainfall and cyclonic patterns that are being observed globally. In Southeast Asia the link between global warming and the seasonal atmospheric flow during the monsoon seasons shows varying degree of fuzziness. This study investigates the impact of climate change on the seasonality of monsoon Asia and its effect on the variability of monsoon rainfall in Southeast Asia. The comparison of decadal variation of precipitation and temperature anomalies before the 1970s found general increases which were mostly varying. But beyond the 1970s, global precipitation anomalous showed increases that almost corresponded with increases in global temperature anomalies for the same period. There are frequent changes and a shift westward of the Indian summer monsoon. Although precipitation is observed to be 70% below normal levels, in some areas the topography affects the intensity of rainfall. These shifting phenomenon of other monsoon season in the region are impacting on the variability of rainfall and the onset of monsoons in Southeast Asia and is predicted to delay for 15 days the onset of the monsoon in the future. The variability of monsoon rainfall in the SEA region is observed to be decadal and the frequency and intensity of intermittent flooding of some areas during the monsoon season have serious consequences on the human, financial, infrastructure and food security of the region.

  13. Effect of climate change on seasonal monsoon in Asia and its impact on the variability of monsoon rainfall in Southeast Asia

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yen Yi Loo; Lawal Billa; Ajit Singh

    2015-01-01

    Global warming and climate change is one of the most extensively researched and discussed topical issues affecting the environment. Although there are enough historical evidence to support the theory that climate change is a natural phenomenon, many research scientists are widely in agreement that the increase in temperature in the 20th century is anthropologically related. The associated effects are the variability of rainfall and cyclonic patterns that are being observed globally. In Southeast Asia the link between global warming and the seasonal atmospheric flow during the monsoon seasons shows varying degree of fuzziness. This study investigates the impact of climate change on the seasonality of monsoon Asia and its effect on the variability of monsoon rainfall in Southeast Asia. The comparison of decadal variation of precipitation and temperature anomalies before the 1970s found general increases which were mostly varying. But beyond the 1970s, global precipitation anomalous showed increases that almost corresponded with increases in global temperature anomalies for the same period. There are frequent changes and a shift westward of the Indian summer monsoon. Although precipitation is observed to be 70%below normal levels, in some areas the topography affects the intensity of rainfall. These shifting phenomenon of other monsoon season in the region are impacting on the variability of rainfall and the onset of monsoons in Southeast Asia and is predicted to delay for 15 days the onset of the monsoon in the future. The variability of monsoon rainfall in the SEA region is observed to be decadal and the frequency and intensity of intermittent flooding of some areas during the monsoon season have serious consequences on the human, financial, infrastructure and food security of the region.

  14. Meta-heuristic ant colony optimization technique to forecast the amount of summer monsoon rainfall: skill comparison with Markov chain model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaudhuri, Sutapa; Goswami, Sayantika; Das, Debanjana; Middey, Anirban

    2014-05-01

    Forecasting summer monsoon rainfall with precision becomes crucial for the farmers to plan for harvesting in a country like India where the national economy is mostly based on regional agriculture. The forecast of monsoon rainfall based on artificial neural network is a well-researched problem. In the present study, the meta-heuristic ant colony optimization (ACO) technique is implemented to forecast the amount of summer monsoon rainfall for the next day over Kolkata (22.6°N, 88.4°E), India. The ACO technique belongs to swarm intelligence and simulates the decision-making processes of ant colony similar to other adaptive learning techniques. ACO technique takes inspiration from the foraging behaviour of some ant species. The ants deposit pheromone on the ground in order to mark a favourable path that should be followed by other members of the colony. A range of rainfall amount replicating the pheromone concentration is evaluated during the summer monsoon season. The maximum amount of rainfall during summer monsoon season (June—September) is observed to be within the range of 7.5-35 mm during the period from 1998 to 2007, which is in the range 4 category set by the India Meteorological Department (IMD). The result reveals that the accuracy in forecasting the amount of rainfall for the next day during the summer monsoon season using ACO technique is 95 % where as the forecast accuracy is 83 % with Markov chain model (MCM). The forecast through ACO and MCM are compared with other existing models and validated with IMD observations from 2008 to 2012.

  15. Detecting the influence of anthropogenic forcings on changes in the South Asian Monsoon subseasonal rainfall characteristics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, D.; Bollasina, M. A.; Ting, M.; Diffenbaugh, N. S.

    2016-12-01

    Subseasonal variability of the South Asian summer monsoon leads to wet and dry spells that cause acute agricultural and societal impacts. Previous studies have documented changes in several subseasonal precipitation characteristics, including increases in dry-day frequency, dry-spell frequency, and wet-spell intensity. However, the causes of these historical changes remain poorly understood. We use rainfall observations and climate model simulations to identify the influence of individual natural and anthropogenic forcing agents on historical trends in wet and dry spells over the core-monsoon region during the peak-monsoon season (July-August). We show that aerosol forcing is not only the primary driver of seasonal rainfall trends, but also of changes in total number of dry days, dry-spell frequency and intensity, and wet-spell frequency. By suppressing mean seasonal rainfall but increasing daily variability, aerosol forcing leads to fewer wet spells, along with fewer, shorter, less-intense dry spells. Although greenhouse gases (GHGs) largely oppose the aerosol-induced changes, the aerosol imprint dominates the spatial changes in seasonal and subseasonal rainfall characteristics during the late 20th century. The dominant influence of aerosols on subseasonal wet and dry spells has important implications for efforts to simultaneously manage global GHGs and regional air quality and adapt to changes in climate in coming decades.

  16. Rainfall Trends over the Indo-Pak Summer Monsoon and Related Large-Scale Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Latif, Muhammad; Syed, Faisal; Hannachi, Abdel

    2016-04-01

    The study of regional rainfall trends over South Asia is critically important for food security and infrastructure. This study investigates the presence of trends in seasonal and sub-seasonal (June through September-JJAS) rainfall obtained from multiple observed datasets. The obtained results identified a dipole-type structure in rainfall trends over the region north of the Indo-Pak subcontinent, where significant increasing trends are seen over the core monsoon region of Pakistan and significant decreasing trends are observed over the central-north India and adjacent areas. The study strongly suggests that strengthening of Vertically Integrated Meridional Moisture Transport (VIMMT) over the Arabian Sea is likely reason for the trend of rainfall in the core monsoon region of Pakistan. In contrast, over the central-north India region, the rainfall trends are significantly decreasing due to the weakening of IMT over the Bay of Bengal. The leading EOF clearly shows the strengthening (weakening) patterns of VIMMT over the Arabian Sea (Bay of Bengal) in seasonal and sub-seasonal interannual time-scales. The regression analysis between the principal components and rainfall confirms the dipole pattern over the region. Our results also suggest that the Circumglobal Teleconnection in upper troposphere influence in maintaining the mean rainfall over Pakistan via cross-equatorial flow of moisture into the Arabian Sea. We also investigate seasonal JJAS rainfall trends using historical and climate change (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) simulations from a set of regional climate models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Trends and asymmetry of seasonal rainfall show great variability across models. Meridional moisture transport and associated large-scale dynamics will also be discussed.

  17. Study of snow-monsoon relationship and changes in rainfall and temperature characteristics in India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mamgain, Ashu

    In the recent past, there are indications of changes in the surface air temperature, extreme weather events, snow and Indian summer monsoon. This thesis analyses the above weather phenomena based on observed data and climate model simulations for the present as well as the near future. Earlier studies show a strong negative relationship between Eurasian snow cover/depth and Indian summer monsoon rainfall. Limitations of such studies are that both the parameters snow and rainfall were seasonally averaged over large areas. Indian summer monsoon has its own characteristics of evolution such as onset, active, break and withdrawal phases which have been studied extensively. However, the evolution of Eurasian snow is yet to be examined. Further, it is interesting to explore the characteristics of evolution of snow over the different regions of Eurasia and their relationship with the evolution characteristics of summer monsoon. In this thesis, a detailed examination has been done on the starting and the ending dates of snowfall over different regions of Eurasia and attempts have been made to explore any relationship with onset of Indian summer monsoon. It is observed that the regions where snowfall starts early, it ends late. Further, in those regions maximum snow depth also occurs late. In some years, more snowfall in East Eurasia is followed by less snowfall in West Eurasia. Also snow depths particularly in the northernmost and southwest regions of East Eurasia are opposite in phase. The results of this study indicate a weak relationship between snow starting dates in Eurasia and summer monsoon onset dates in the Kerala coast. However, the relationship between the northernmost Eurasian snow depth and the summer monsoon precipitation in the Peninsular India is significant. Today, regional weather/climate models are increasingly used to study several atmospheric phenomena. The Regional Climate Model, RegCM3 has been successfully integrated to simulate the salient features

  18. Prediction of monsoon rainfall with a nested grid mesoscale limited area model

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    S K Roy Bhowmik

    2003-12-01

    At the India Meteorological Department (IMD), New Delhi, a 12-level limited area model with 100km horizontal resolution has been in use for weather forecasting. The present study uses this model together with a higher horizontal resolution (50 km) and vertical resolution (16-levels) model to examine the impact of increased resolution to simulate mesoscale features of rainfall during monsoon disturbances. The model was run for 22 days in the month of August 1997 and one week in September 1997 during three monsoon depressions and one cyclonic storm in the Bay of Bengal. The model results are compared with observations. The study shows that the model can capture mesoscale convective organization associated with monsoon depression.

  19. A monsoon-like Southwest Australian circulation and its relation with rainfall in Southwest Western Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Juan; Li, Jianping; Li, Yun

    2010-05-01

    Using the NCEP/NCAR, ERA-40 reanalysis, and precipitation data from CMAP and Australian Bureau of Meteorology, the variability and circulation features influencing the southwest Western Australia (SWWA) winter rainfall are investigated. It is found that the climate of southwest Australia bears a strong seasonality in the annual cycle and exhibits a monsoon-like atmospheric circulation, which is termed as the southwest Australian circulation (SWAC) for its several distinct features characterizing a monsoonal circulation: the seasonal reversal of winds, alternate wet and dry seasons, and an evident land-sea thermal contrast. The seasonal march of the SWAC in extended winter (May to October) is demonstrated by pentad data. An index based on the dynamics normalized seasonality was introduced to describe the behavior and variation of the winter SWAC. It is found that the winter rainfall over SWWA has a significant positive correlation with the SWAC index in both early (May to July) and late (August to October) winter. In weaker winter SWAC years there is an anti-cyclonic anomaly over southern Indian Ocean resulting in weaker westerlies and northerlies which are not favorable for more rainfall over SWWA, and the opposite combination is true in the stronger winter SWAC years. The SWAC explains not only a large portion of the interannual variability of SWWA rainfall in both early and late winter, but also the long term drying trend over SWWA in early winter. The well-coupled SWAC-SWWA rainfall relationship seems to be largely independent of the well-known effects of large-scale atmospheric circulations such as the Southern Hemisphere Annular Mode (SAM), El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and ENSO Modoki (EM). The result offers qualified support for the argument that the monsoon-like circulation may contribute to the rainfall decline in early winter over SWWA.

  20. Long-range forecast of monthly rainfall over India during summer monsoon season using SST in the north Indian Ocean

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Sadhuram, Y.

    Long-range forecasting of summer monsoon rainfall was reported through linear models by Delsole and Shukla3. They showed that minimum number of predictors are sufficient for accurate forecasts. Recent studies4,5 reported long-range prediction...

  1. Multi-model ensemble schemes for predicting northeast monsoon rainfall over peninsular India

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Nachiketa Acharya; S C Kar; Makarand A Kulkarni; U C Mohanty; L N Sahoo

    2011-10-01

    The northeast (NE) monsoon season (October, November and December) is the major period of rainfall activity over south peninsular India. This study is mainly focused on the prediction of northeast monsoon rainfall using lead-1 products (forecasts for the season issued in beginning of September) of seven general circulation models (GCMs). An examination of the performances of these GCMs during hindcast runs (1982–2008) indicates that these models are not able to simulate the observed interannual variability of rainfall. Inaccurate response of the models to sea surface temperatures may be one of the probable reasons for the poor performance of these models to predict seasonal mean rainfall anomalies over the study domain. An attempt has been made to improve the accuracy of predicted rainfall using three different multi-model ensemble (MME) schemes, viz., simple arithmetic mean of models (EM), principal component regression (PCR) and singular value decomposition based multiple linear regressions (SVD). It is found out that among these three schemes, SVD based MME has more skill than other MME schemes as well as member models.

  2. All India summer monsoon rainfall prediction using an artificial neural network

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sahai, A.K.; Soman, M.K.; Satyan, V. [Indian Inst. of Tropical Meteorol., Pune (India). Climate and Global Modelling Div.

    2000-04-01

    The prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) on a seasonal time scales has been attempted by various research groups using different techniques including artificial neural networks. The prediction of ISMR on monthly and seasonal time scales is not only scientifically challenging but is also important for planning and devising agricultural strategies. This article describes the artificial neural network (ANN) technique with error- back-propagation algorithm to provide prediction (hindcast) of ISMR on monthly and seasonal time scales. The ANN technique is applied to the five time series of June, July, August, September monthly means and seasonal mean (June+July+August+September) rainfall from 1871 to 1994 based on Parthasarathy data set. The previous five years values from all the five time-series were used to train the ANN to predict for the next year. The details of the models used are discussed. Various statistics are calculated to examine the performance of the models and it is found that the models could be used as a forecasting tool on seasonal and monthly time scales. It is observed by various researchers that with the passage of time the relationships between various predictors and Indian monsoon are changing, leading to changes in monsoon predictability. This issue is discussed and it is found that the monsoon system inherently has a decadal scale variation in predictability. (orig.)

  3. EAST ASIA SUMMER MONSOON ONSET DATE CALCULATED FROM OBSERVED, REANALYZED AND COMBINED DAILY RAINFALL

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2000-01-01

    In this paper, the East Asia summer monsoon onset date lines in East China are calculated by the definition similar to the traditional one, with the ECMWF reanalyzed 850 hPa daily wind and observed, reanalyzed and combined daily rainfall during 1980 ~ 1993. To make the onset date line as close as possible to the previous work, the earliest onset date limits have to be applied for the regions with different latitude and the daily mean datasets have to be smoothed by space before calculation, therefore their space-resolution is reduced to about 3° longitude ×1° latitude. The results show that the multiyear mean summer monsoon onset date lines are quite similar to each other. Compared with the one from the reanalysis, the 14-year average onset date line form combination is obviously improved in the southern Sichuan Basin and the correlation between observed and combined onset date is also slightly higher over the Huaihe valley and Northeast China. Since daily rainfall combination also improved the long term daily mean and standard deviation through the pentad CMAP, if no better daily dataset is available, such a kind of daily rainfall combination can be used to get reasonable result in the Indian monsoon region without sufficient observatories or over the North Pacific without any ground observation at all in future study.

  4. A climatological analysis of the southwest monsoon rainfall in the Philippines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cruz, F. T.; Narisma, G. T.; Villafuerte, M. Q.; Cheng Chua, K. U.; Olaguera, L. M.

    2013-03-01

    The historical behavior of the southwest monsoon (SWM) rainfall in the Philippines is described using observed rainfall during the months of June to September from 1961 to 2010. Data are obtained from meteorological stations situated in the western half of the country where the impact of SWM is well pronounced. Time series analysis indicates significant decreasing trends from 0.026% to 0.075% per decade in the total SWM rainfall in six of the nine stations (Ambulong, Baguio, Coron, Dagupan, Iba and Vigan) in the past 50 years. A rainfall anomaly index is derived to characterize the inter-annual variability and the influence of the El Niño Southern Oscillation on the SWM rainfall. Results show no above normal rainfall events associated with La Niña years and few occurrences of below normal rainfall associated with El Niño events. Years where the SWM rainfall significantly deviates from its climate mean are also identified. Furthermore, an examination of the rainfall extremes indicate an increasing trend in the number of days without rain, which can be detected with statistical confidence in Ambulong (2.9% per decade), Baguio (5.9% per decade) and Dagupan (4.0% per decade), as well as a decreasing trend in the heavy rainfall days. These findings suggest a climatic change towards a prolonged dry period and an overall decreasing trend in rainfall during the SWM season over western Philippines in the recent decades, which can have serious implications on the country's agricultural sector.

  5. Impact of MJO on the intraseasonal variation of summer monsoon rainfall over India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pai, D. S.; Bhate, Jyoti; Sreejith, O. P.; Hatwar, H. R.

    2011-01-01

    The summer monsoon rainfall over India exhibits strong intraseasonal variability. Earlier studies have identified Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) as one of the most influencing factors of the intraseasonal variability of the monsoon rainfall. In this study, using India Meteorological Department (IMD) high resolution daily gridded rainfall data and Wheeler-Hendon MJO indices, the intra-seasonal variation of daily rainfall distribution over India associated with various Phases of eastward propagating MJO life cycle was examined to understand the mechanism linking the MJO to the intraseasonal variability. During MJO Phases of 1 and 2, formation of MJO associated positive convective anomaly over the equatorial Indian Ocean activated the oceanic tropical convergence zone (OTCZ) and the resultant changes in the monsoon circulation caused break monsoon type rainfall distribution. Associated with this, negative convective anomalies over monsoon trough zone region extended eastwards to date line indicating weaker than normal northern hemisphere inter tropical convergence zone (ITCZ). The positive convective anomalies over OTCZ and negative convective anomalies over ITCZ formed a dipole like pattern. Subsequently, as the MJO propagated eastwards to west equatorial Pacific through the maritime continent, a gradual northward shift of the OTCZ was observed and negative convective anomalies started appearing over equatorial Indian Ocean. During Phase 4, while the eastwards propagating MJO linked positive convective anomalies activated the eastern part of the ITCZ, the northward propagating OTCZ merged with monsoon trough (western part of the ITCZ) and induced positive convective anomalies over the region. During Phases 5 and 6, the dipole pattern in convective anomalies was reversed compared to that during Phases 1 and 2. This resulted active monsoon type rainfall distribution over India. During the subsequent Phases (7 and 8), the convective and lower tropospheric anomaly

  6. Impact of MJO on the intraseasonal variation of summer monsoon rainfall over India

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pai, D.S.; Sreejith, O.P.; Hatwar, H.R. [India Meteorological Department, Pune (India); Bhate, Jyoti [National Atmospheric Research Laboratory, Gadnki (India)

    2011-01-15

    The summer monsoon rainfall over India exhibits strong intraseasonal variability. Earlier studies have identified Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) as one of the most influencing factors of the intraseasonal variability of the monsoon rainfall. In this study, using India Meteorological Department (IMD) high resolution daily gridded rainfall data and Wheeler-Hendon MJO indices, the intra-seasonal variation of daily rainfall distribution over India associated with various Phases of eastward propagating MJO life cycle was examined to understand the mechanism linking the MJO to the intraseasonal variability. During MJO Phases of 1 and 2, formation of MJO associated positive convective anomaly over the equatorial Indian Ocean activated the oceanic tropical convergence zone (OTCZ) and the resultant changes in the monsoon circulation caused break monsoon type rainfall distribution. Associated with this, negative convective anomalies over monsoon trough zone region extended eastwards to date line indicating weaker than normal northern hemisphere inter tropical convergence zone (ITCZ). The positive convective anomalies over OTCZ and negative convective anomalies over ITCZ formed a dipole like pattern. Subsequently, as the MJO propagated eastwards to west equatorial Pacific through the maritime continent, a gradual northward shift of the OTCZ was observed and negative convective anomalies started appearing over equatorial Indian Ocean. During Phase 4, while the eastwards propagating MJO linked positive convective anomalies activated the eastern part of the ITCZ, the northward propagating OTCZ merged with monsoon trough (western part of the ITCZ) and induced positive convective anomalies over the region. During Phases 5 and 6, the dipole pattern in convective anomalies was reversed compared to that during Phases 1 and 2. This resulted active monsoon type rainfall distribution over India. During the subsequent Phases (7 and 8), the convective and lower tropospheric anomaly

  7. An East Asian Subtropical Summer Monsoon Index and Its Relationship to Summer Rainfall in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHAO Ping; ZHOU Zijiang

    2009-01-01

    Using the monthly mean NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and the monthly rainfall observations at 160 rain gauge stations of China during 1961-1999, and based on major characteristics of the atmospheric circulation over East Asia and the western Pacific, a simple index for the East Asian subtropical summer monsoon (EASSM) is defined. The relationship between this index and summer rainfall in China and associated circulation features are examined. A comparison is made between this index and other monsoon indices. The results indicate that the index defined herein is reflective of variations of both the thermal low pressure centered in Siberia and the subtropical ridge over the western Pacific. It epitomizes the intensity of the EASSM and the variability of summer rainfall along the Yangtze River. Analysis shows that the Siberian low has a greater effect on the rainfall than the subtropical ridge, suggesting that the summer rainfall variability over the eastern parts of China is to a large extent affected by anomalies of the atmospheric circulation and cold air development in the midlatitudes. Taking into account of the effects of both the Siberian low and the subtropical ridge can better capture the summer rainfall anomalies of China. The index exhibits interannual and decadai variabilities, with high-index values occurring mainly in the 1960s and 1970s and low-index values in the 1980s and 1990s. When the EASSM index is low, the Siberian low and the subtropical ridge are weaker, and northerly wind anomalies appear at low levels over the midlatitudes and subtropics of East Asia, whereas southwesterly wind anomalies dominate in the upper troposphere over the tropics and subtropics of Asia and the western Pacific. The northerly wind anomalies bring about frequent cold air disturbances from the midlatitudes of East Asia, strengthening the convergence and ascending motions along the Meiyu front, and result in an increase of summer rainfall over the Yangtze River.

  8. Elucidating the role of topological pattern discovery and support vector machine in generating predictive models for Indian summer monsoon rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chattopadhyay, Manojit; Chattopadhyay, Surajit

    2016-10-01

    The present paper reports a study, where growing hierarchical self-organising map (GHSOM) has been applied to achieve a visual cluster analysis to the Indian rainfall dataset consisting of 142 years of Indian rainfall data so that the yearly rainfall can be segregated into small groups to visualise the pattern of clustering behaviour of yearly rainfall due to changes in monthly rainfall for each year. Also, through support vector machine (SVM), it has been observed that generation of clusters impacts positively on the prediction of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall. Results have been presented through statistical and graphical analyses.

  9. Simulation of the Indian summer monsoon onset-phase rainfall using a regional model

    KAUST Repository

    Srinivas, C. V.

    2015-09-11

    This study examines the ability of the Advanced Research WRF (ARW) regional model to simulate Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall climatology in different climate zones during the monsoon onset phase in the decade 2000–2009. The initial and boundary conditions for ARW are provided from the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis Project (NNRP) global reanalysis. Seasonal onset-phase rainfall is compared with corresponding values from 0.25° IMD (India Meteorological Department) rainfall and NNRP precipitation data over seven climate zones (perhumid, humid, dry/moist, subhumid, dry/moist, semiarid and arid) of India to see whether dynamical downscaling using a regional model yields advantages over just using large-scale model predictions. Results show that the model could simulate the onset phase in terms of progression and distribution of rainfall in most zones (except over the northeast) with good correlations and low error metrics. The observed mean onset dates and their variability over different zones are well reproduced by the regional model over most climate zones. It has been found that the ARW performed similarly to the reanalysis in most zones and improves the onset time by 1 to 3 days in zones 4 and 7, in which the NNRP shows a delayed onset compared to the actual IMD onset times. The variations in the onset-phase rainfall during the below-normal onset (June negative) and above-normal onset (June positive) phases are well simulated. The slight underestimation of onset-phase rainfall in the northeast zone could be due to failure in resolving the wide extent of topographic variations and the associated multiscale interactions in that zone. Spatial comparisons showed improvement of pentad rainfall in both space and quantity in ARW simulations over NNRP data, as evident from a wider eastward distribution of pentad rainfall over the Western Ghats, central and eastern India, as in IMD observations. While NNRP under-represented the high pentad rainfall over northeast, east and

  10. The impacts of the summer plateau monsoon over the Tibetan Plateau on the rainfall in the Tarim Basin, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Yong; Huang, Anning; Zhou, Yang; Yang, Qing

    2016-10-01

    The impacts of the summer plateau monsoon (PM) over the Tibetan Plateau on summer rainfall over the Tarim Basin in northwest China are investigated, based on the observed rainfall data at 34 stations and the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data during 1961 to 2007. Results showed that the PM is well correlated to the summer rainfall over the Tarim Basin. Process analysis shows that strong PM corresponds to an anomalous cyclone over the Tibetan Plateau in the middle troposphere and an anomalous anticyclone in the upper troposphere over northwest part of Tibetan Plateau. They result in cold air moving from high latitudes into Central Asia over the western part of Tibetan Plateau. The concurrences of the cooling in the middle-upper troposphere over Central Asia leads to an anomalous cyclone over Central Asia at 500 hPa and the anomalous descending motions prevailing over the cooling region. Associated with this anomaly, there are enhanced southerly winds and corresponding ascending motion over the Tarim Basin located in the east of the cooling region. These processes lead to more summer rainfall over the Tarim Basin.

  11. Study on the association of green house gas (CO2) with monsoon rainfall using AIRS and TRMM satellite observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, R. B.; Janmaijaya, M.; Dhaka, S. K.; Kumar, V.

    Monsoon water cycle is the lifeline to over 60 per cent of the world's population. Throughout history, the monsoon-related calamities of droughts and floods have determined the life pattern of people. The association of Green House Gases (GHGs) particularly Carbon dioxide (CO2) with monsoon has been greatly debated amongst the scientific community in the past. The effect of CO2 on the monsoon rainfall over the Indian-Indonesian region (8-30°N, 65°-100°E) is being investigated using satellite data. The correlation coefficient (Rxy) between CO2 and monsoon is analysed. The Rxy is not significantly positive over a greater part of the study region, except a few regions. The inter-annual anomalies of CO2 is identified for playing a secondary role to influencing monsoon while other phenomenon like ENSO might be exerting a much greater influence.

  12. On the role of the cross equatorial flow on summer monsoon rainfall over India using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    RameshKumar, M.R.; Shenoi, S.S.C.; Schluessel, P.

    monsoon using satellite data. Bound.- Layer Meteorl., 51, 199–209. Webster, P. J., Magana, V. O., Palmer, T. N., Shukla, J., Tomas, R. A., Yanai, M., Yasunari, T., 1998: Monsoons: Processes, Predictability and Prospects for prediction. J. Geophys. Res...

  13. The Influence of the East Asian Winter Monsoon on Indonesian Rainfall During the Past 60,000 Years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Konecky, B. L.; Russell, J. M.; Vogel, H.; Bijaksana, S.; Huang, Y.

    2013-12-01

    The Indo-Pacific Warm Pool (IPWP) invigorates the oceanic-atmospheric circulation in the tropics, with far-reaching climate impacts that extend into the high latitudes. A growing number of deglacial proxy reconstructions from the Maritime Continent and its surrounding seas have revealed the importance of both high- and low-latitude climate processes to IPWP rainfall during the deglaciation and the Holocene. However, few records extend beyond the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), making it difficult to assess regional rainfall characteristics and monsoon interactions under the glacial/interglacial boundary conditions of the Pleistocene. Proxy reconstructions of the oxygen and hydrogen isotopic composition of rainfall (δ18O/δDprecip) have proven useful in understanding millennial to orbital scale changes in the climate of the Maritime Continent, but the tendency for δ18O/δDprecip in this region to reflect regional and/or remote climate processes has highlighted the need to reconstruct δ18O/δDprecip alongside independent proxies for continental rainfall amount. Here we present a reconstruction of δDprecip using leaf wax compounds preserved in the sediments of Lake Towuti, Central Sulawesi, from 60,000 years before present (kyr BP) to today. Our δDprecip reconstruction provides a precipitation isotopic counterpart to multi-proxy geochemical reconstructions of surface hydrology and vegetation characteristics from the same sediment cores, enabling for the first time an independent assessment of both continental rainfall intensity and δDprecip from this region on glacial/interglacial timescales. We find that orbital-scale variations in δDprecip and rainfall intensity are strongly tied to the East Asian Winter Monsoon (EAWM), which is an important contributor to the band of convection over the Maritime Continent during austral summer. Unlike today, however, severely dry conditions in Central Sulawesi during the Last Glacial Maximum were accompanied by a strengthened

  14. Multivariate forecast of winter monsoon rainfall in India using SST anomaly as a predictor: Neurocomputing and statistical approaches

    CERN Document Server

    Chattopadhyay, Goutami; Jain, Rajni

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, the complexities in the relationship between rainfall and sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies during the winter monsoon (November-January) over India were evaluated statistically using scatter plot matrices and autocorrelation functions.Linear as well as polynomial trend equations were obtained and it was observed that the coefficient of determination for the linear trend was very low and it remained low even when polynomial trend of degree six was used. An exponential regression equation and an artificial neural network with extensive variable selection were generated to forecast the average winter monsoon rainfall of a given year using the rainfall amounts and the sea surface temperature anomalies in the winter monsoon months of the previous year as predictors. The regression coefficients for the multiple exponential regression equation were generated using Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm. The artificial neural network was generated in the form of a multiplayer perceptron with sigmoid non-l...

  15. Occurrence of heavy rainfall around the confluence line in monsoon disturbances and its importance in causing floods

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    G Nageswara Rao

    2001-03-01

    It is well known that heavy rainfall occurs in the southwestern sector of the monsoon depressions due to strong convergence in that sector. By examining the rainfall distribution associated with the monsoon disturbances (lows and depressions) in one of the central Indian river basins, `Godavari', the author found that when the disturbance-centre is away from the basin, heavy rainfall may also occur in the basin area close to the confluence line and cause severe floods in the river. The confluence line is the zone of convergence between the northeasterlies to the west of the disturbance centre and the monsoon westerlies. This study further reveals the importance of the position and movement of the confluence line with respect to the basin, on which the intensity and the raising period of the resulting flood depend.

  16. Has influence of extratropical waves in modulating Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) increased?

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    A K Srivastava; Somenath Dutta; S R Kshirsagar; Kavita Srivastava

    2014-04-01

    In the paper, influence of extratropical circulation features on Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) is examined. Energetics of extra tropics, north of Indian subcontinent for deficient and nondeficient ISMR years, during two periods 1951–1978 and 1979–2005, are calculated and critically analyzed. It is observed that for the period 1951–1978, only two out of the 10 energetic parameters, viz., the zonal available potential energy (high) and conversion of zonal available potential with kinetic energy to eddy kinetic energy (low) differed significantly in JJA months of the deficient years from that of the nondeficient years. However, during the 1979–2005 period, as many as six out of the 10 energetic parameters, viz., eddy available potential energy, zonal available potential energy, eddy kinetic energy, generation of zonal available potential energy, conversion of zonal available potential energy to zonal kinetic energy and conversion of zonal kinetic energy to eddy kinetic energy differed significantly in JJA months of the deficient years from that of the nondeficient years. These results confirm growing influence of the transient stationary waves in deficient years after the climate shift year, 1979. Analysis of energetic parameters of the pre-monsoon season of the two periods also reveals similar results. This suggests that forcings apparently responsible for energetics in JJA months of the deficient years of the later period were present even before the advent of Indian summer monsoon season.

  17. A study on the decreasing trend in tropical easterly jet stream (TEJ) and its impact on Indian summer monsoon rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sreekala, P. P.; Bhaskara Rao, S. V.; Arunachalam, M. S.; Harikiran, C.

    2014-10-01

    Using the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis wind and temperature data (1948-2011) and India Meteorological Department (IMD) rainfall data, a long-term trend in the tropical easterly jet stream and its effect on Indian summer monsoon rainfall has been explained in the present study. A decreasing trend in zonal wind speed at 100 mb (maximum decrease), 150 mb, and 200 mb (minimum) is observed. The upper-level (100, 150, and 200 mb) zonal wind speed has been correlated with the surface air temperature anomaly index (ATAI) in the month of May, which is taken as the difference in temperature anomaly over land (22.5°N-27.5°N, 80°E-90°E) and Ocean (5°S-0°S, 75°E-85°E). Significant high correlation is observed between May ATAI and tropical easterly jet stream (TEJ) which suggests that the decreasing land-sea temperature contrast could be one major reason behind the decreasing trend in TEJ. The analysis of spatial distribution of rainfall over India shows a decreasing trend in rainfall over Jammu and Kashmir, Arunachal Pradesh, central Indian region, and western coast of India. Increasing trend in rainfall is observed over south peninsular and northeastern part of India. From the spatial correlation analysis of zonal wind with gridded rainfall, it is observed that the correlation of rainfall is found to be high with the TEJ speed over the regions where the decreasing trend in rainfall is observed. Similarly, from the analysis of spatial correlation between rainfall and May ATAI, positive spatial correlation is observed between May ATAI and summer monsoon rainfall over the regions such as south peninsular India where the rainfall trend is positive, and negative correlation is observed over the places such as Jammu and Kashmir where negative rainfall trend is observed. The decreased land-sea temperature contrast in the pre-monsoon month could be one major reason behind the decreased trend in TEJ as well as the observed spatial variation in the summer monsoon rainfall trend. Thus

  18. Understanding spatio-temporal variation of vegetation phenology and rainfall seasonality in the monsoon Southeast Asia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suepa, Tanita; Qi, Jiaguo; Lawawirojwong, Siam; Messina, Joseph P

    2016-05-01

    The spatio-temporal characteristics of remote sensing are considered to be the primary advantage in environmental studies. With long-term and frequent satellite observations, it is possible to monitor changes in key biophysical attributes such as phenological characteristics, and relate them to climate change by examining their correlations. Although a number of remote sensing methods have been developed to quantify vegetation seasonal cycles using time-series of vegetation indices, there is limited effort to explore and monitor changes and trends of vegetation phenology in the Monsoon Southeast Asia, which is adversely affected by changes in the Asian monsoon climate. In this study, MODIS EVI and TRMM time series data, along with field survey data, were analyzed to quantify phenological patterns and trends in the Monsoon Southeast Asia during 2001-2010 period and assess their relationship with climate change in the region. The results revealed a great regional variability and inter-annual fluctuation in vegetation phenology. The phenological patterns varied spatially across the region and they were strongly correlated with climate variations and land use patterns. The overall phenological trends appeared to shift towards a later and slightly longer growing season up to 14 days from 2001 to 2010. Interestingly, the corresponding rainy season seemed to have started earlier and ended later, resulting in a slightly longer wet season extending up to 7 days, while the total amount of rainfall in the region decreased during the same time period. The phenological shifts and changes in vegetation growth appeared to be associated with climate events such as EL Niño in 2005. Furthermore, rainfall seemed to be the dominant force driving the phenological changes in naturally vegetated areas and rainfed croplands, whereas land use management was the key factor in irrigated agricultural areas.

  19. Changing characteristics of extreme wet and dry spells of Indian monsoon rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vinnarasi, R.; Dhanya, C. T.

    2016-03-01

    Modeling of extreme events and its dynamic behavior have always been an intriguing topic. Increase in the magnitude and frequency of extreme events has widely been reported in recent decades, which is attributed to abrupt changes in climate. Numerous studies on extreme Indian monsoon characteristics, using a coarse-resolution data set, have pointed out significant changes in heavy precipitation pattern over India. However, these studies differ in their conclusions, emphasizing the need for a fine-resolution analysis. The present study aims to analyze the spatiotemporal variations and trends in the extreme (wet and dry) Indian monsoon precipitation, using 0.25° × 0.25° high-resolution gridded data for a period of 113 years (1901-2013). Significant increase in the maximum intensity of rainfall and spatial heterogeneity is observed over the past half century. In addition, significant negative trends in wet spell durations and positive trends in dry spell durations are observed over wet regions; whereas contrasting trends are observed over dry regions. A shift in the frequency distribution of extreme events during the monsoon period is also noticed. The 50 year return level of maximum intensity clearly shows positive trends over the past century. Though characteristics of extremes are observed to be highly localized, apparent signs of wet regions turning drier and dry regions turning wetter are obtained. A comprehensive insight into different characteristics (intensity, spell, onset, and frequency) of Indian monsoon extremes is provided, which will help in effective water resources management and flood/drought hazard preparedness.

  20. Simulation skill of APCC set of global climate models for Asian summer monsoon rainfall variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, U. K.; Singh, G. P.; Singh, Vikas

    2015-04-01

    The performance of 11 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Climate Center (APCC) global climate models (coupled and uncoupled both) in simulating the seasonal summer (June-August) monsoon rainfall variability over Asia (especially over India and East Asia) has been evaluated in detail using hind-cast data (3 months advance) generated from APCC which provides the regional climate information product services based on multi-model ensemble dynamical seasonal prediction systems. The skill of each global climate model over Asia was tested separately in detail for the period of 21 years (1983-2003), and simulated Asian summer monsoon rainfall (ASMR) has been verified using various statistical measures for Indian and East Asian land masses separately. The analysis found a large variation in spatial ASMR simulated with uncoupled model compared to coupled models (like Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia, National Centers for Environmental Prediction and Japan Meteorological Agency). The simulated ASMR in coupled model was closer to Climate Prediction Centre Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP) compared to uncoupled models although the amount of ASMR was underestimated in both models. Analysis also found a high spread in simulated ASMR among the ensemble members (suggesting that the model's performance is highly dependent on its initial conditions). The correlation analysis between sea surface temperature (SST) and ASMR shows that that the coupled models are strongly associated with ASMR compared to the uncoupled models (suggesting that air-sea interaction is well cared in coupled models). The analysis of rainfall using various statistical measures suggests that the multi-model ensemble (MME) performed better compared to individual model and also separate study indicate that Indian and East Asian land masses are more useful compared to Asia monsoon rainfall as a whole. The results of various statistical measures like skill of multi-model ensemble, large spread

  1. A case study on a strong tropical disturbance and record heavy rainfall in Hat Yai, Thailand during the winter monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wangwongchai, Angkool; Zhao, Sixiong; Zeng, Qingcun

    2005-06-01

    The evolutionary process and structural characteristics of the atmospheric circulation and synoptic situation which caused the record heavy rainfall with a precipitation amount of 550 mm in Hat Yai, Thailand from 20 to 23 November 2000 is studied. In the study, the modern three dimensional observational data were collected as completely as possible, and detailed analyses were made. It is revealed that the cold surges of the Asian winter monsoon that originate from Siberia can arrive at the lower latitudes, including South Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, cause strong heavy rainfall there, and interact with weather systems in the near-equatorial regions of the Southern Hemisphere. This is strongly supported by Chinese scientist’s original finding in 1930s. The strong convective cloud clusters in the above areas are generated by the direct influence of the cold surges, and are related with the South China Sea disturbances in the lower troposphere. The maximum of the convergence of total moisture flux near South Thailand in the situation under study implies that the water vapour supply is abundant and very favorable to the occurrence of the heavy rainfall. The release of latent heat enhances the Hadley Circulation also. The feedback of the strong severe weather on climate indeed exists, and there are pronounced interactions between the multi-scale systems and between both hemispheres.

  2. A Case Study on a Strong Tropical Disturbance and Record Heavy Rainfall in Hat Yai, Thailand during the Winter Monsoon

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Angkool WANGWONGCHAI; ZHAO Sixiong; ZENG Qingcun

    2005-01-01

    The evolutionary process and structural characteristics of the atmospheric circulation and synoptic situation which caused the record heavy rainfall with a precipitation amount of 550 mm in Hat Yai,Thailand from 20 to 23 November 2000 is studied. In the study, the modern three dimensional observational data were collected as completely as possible, and detailed analyses were made. It is revealed that the cold surges of the Asian winter monsoon that originate from Siberia can arrive at the lower latitudes, including South Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, cause strong heavy rainfall there, and interact with weather systems in the near-equatorial regions of the Southern Hemisphere. This is strongly supported by Chinese scientist's original finding in 1930s. The strong convective cloud clusters in the above areas are generated by the direct influence of the cold surges, and are related with the South China Sea disturbances in the lower troposphere. The maximum of the convergence of total moisture flux near South Thailand in the situation under study implies that the water vapour supply is abundant and very favorable to the occurrence of the heavy rainfall. The release of latent heat enhances the Hadley Circulation also. The feedback of the strong severe weather on climate indeed exists, and there are pronounced interactions between the multi-scale systems and between both hemispheres.

  3. Lack of Dependence of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall Extremes on Temperature: An Observational Evidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vittal, H.; Ghosh, Subimal; Karmakar, Subhankar; Pathak, Amey; Murtugudde, Raghu

    2016-08-01

    The intensification of precipitation extremes in a warming world has been reported on a global scale and is traditionally explained with the Clausius-Clapeyron (C-C) relation. The relationship is observed to be valid in mid-latitudes; however, the debate persists in tropical monsoon regions, with the extremes of the Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) being a prime example. Here, we present a comprehensive study on the dependence of ISMR extremes on both the 2 m surface air temperature over India and on the sea surface temperature over the tropical Indian Ocean. Remarkably, the ISMR extremes exhibit no significant association with temperature at either spatial scale: neither aggregated over the entire India/Tropical Indian Ocean area nor at the grid levels. We find that the theoretical C-C relation overestimates the positive changes in precipitation extremes, which is also reflected in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) simulations. We emphasize that the changing patterns of extremes over the Indian subcontinent need a scientific re-evaluation, which is possible due to availability of the unique long-term in-situ data. This can aid bias correction of model projections of extremes whose value for climate adaptation can hardly be overemphasized, especially for the developing tropical countries.

  4. Weakening of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall due to Changes in Land Use Land Cover.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paul, Supantha; Ghosh, Subimal; Oglesby, Robert; Pathak, Amey; Chandrasekharan, Anita; Ramsankaran, Raaj

    2016-08-24

    Weakening of Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) is traditionally linked with large-scale perturbations and circulations. However, the impacts of local changes in land use and land cover (LULC) on ISMR have yet to be explored. Here, we analyzed this topic using the regional Weather Research and Forecasting model with European Center for Medium range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) reanalysis data for the years 2000-2010 as a boundary condition and with LULC data from 1987 and 2005. The differences in LULC between 1987 and 2005 showed deforestation with conversion of forest land to crop land, though the magnitude of such conversion is uncertain because of the coarse resolution of satellite images and use of differential sources and methods for data extraction. We performed a sensitivity analysis to understand the impacts of large-scale deforestation in India on monsoon precipitation and found such impacts are similar to the observed changes in terms of spatial patterns and magnitude. We found that deforestation results in weakening of the ISMR because of the decrease in evapotranspiration and subsequent decrease in the recycled component of precipitation.

  5. Weakening of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall due to Changes in Land Use Land Cover

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paul, Supantha; Ghosh, Subimal; Oglesby, Robert; Pathak, Amey; Chandrasekharan, Anita; Ramsankaran, Raaj

    2016-08-01

    Weakening of Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) is traditionally linked with large-scale perturbations and circulations. However, the impacts of local changes in land use and land cover (LULC) on ISMR have yet to be explored. Here, we analyzed this topic using the regional Weather Research and Forecasting model with European Center for Medium range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) reanalysis data for the years 2000–2010 as a boundary condition and with LULC data from 1987 and 2005. The differences in LULC between 1987 and 2005 showed deforestation with conversion of forest land to crop land, though the magnitude of such conversion is uncertain because of the coarse resolution of satellite images and use of differential sources and methods for data extraction. We performed a sensitivity analysis to understand the impacts of large-scale deforestation in India on monsoon precipitation and found such impacts are similar to the observed changes in terms of spatial patterns and magnitude. We found that deforestation results in weakening of the ISMR because of the decrease in evapotranspiration and subsequent decrease in the recycled component of precipitation.

  6. Long-lead prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall from global SST evolution

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sahai, A.K.; Grimm, A.M. [Dept. de Fisica, Universidade Federal do Parana, Centro Politecnico, Jardim das Americas, Caixa Postal 19044, CEP 81531-990, Curitiba-PR (Brazil); Satyan, V.; Pant, G.B. [Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune (India)

    2003-05-01

    Heading Abstract. A methodology is presented for making optimum use of the global sea surface temperature (SST) field for long lead prediction of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR). To avoid the node phase of the biennial oscillation of El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-monsoon system and also to include the multiyear ENSO variability, the ISMR-SST relationship was examined from three seasons lag prior to the start of the monsoon season up to four years lag. First, a correlation analysis is used to identify the regions and seasonal lags for which SST is highly correlated with ISMR. The correlation patterns show a slow and consistent temporal evolution, suggesting the existence of SST oscillations that produce significant correlation even when no direct physical relationship between SST and ISMR, at such long lags, is plausible. As a second step, a strategy for selecting the best 14 predictors (hot spots of the global oceans) is investigated. An experimental prediction of ISMR is made using the SST anomalies in these 14 hot spots. The prediction is consistent for the 105 years (1875 to 1979) of the model development and the 22 years (1980 to 2001) of the model verification period (these last years were not included in the correlation analysis or in the computation of the regression model). The predicted values explain about 80% of the observed variance of ISMR in the model verification period. It is shown that, to a large extent, the behavior of the ensuing ISMR can be determined nine months in advance using SST only. The consistent and skillful prediction for more than a century is not a product of chance. Thus the anomalously strong and weak monsoon seasons are parts of longer period and broader scale circulation patterns, which result from interactions in the ocean-atmosphere coupled system over many seasons in the past. It is argued that despite the weakening of the ENSO-ISMR relationship in recent years, most of the variability of ISMR can still be

  7. Intraseasonal to interannual variability of summer monsoon rainfall and its influence on the Agricultural corps in mountainous Kashmir

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hussain, Z.; Saeed, S.

    2012-04-01

    By using high resolution APHRODITE precipitation and meteorological station data (1961-2007) the present study examines the intraseasonal to interannual variability of the monsoon rainfall over mountainous Kashmir and its influence on the agricultural crops such as Maiz and Wheat. It is found that an intraseasonal to interannual variability of the monsoon rainfall can severely affect the crop production in the hilly areas of Kashmir. We found an increasing trend in the extreme precipitation events over Kashmir and adjacent areas in the recent years. The associated crop production shows significant decreasing trend especially over the hilly areas in Kashmir. The enhanced rainfall can result in the soil erosion that impose a major threat to sustainable agriculture in the mountainous areas of Kashmir. The heavy rainfall associated with the orographic uplifitng removes the uppermost fertile layer of soil, depleting fertility and leaving the soil in poor physical condition. This further causes severe deficiency of most important nutrients required for plant growth and crop yield. We further analysed the IPCC AR4 ECHAM5/MPIOM climate model simulations to examine the future interannual variability of monsoon rainfall over Kashmir and adjoining areas. In the following we analysed the transient run with a 1% per year increase in CO2 until reaching double concentrations and held constant thereafter. We found enhanced interannual variability of the summer monsoon rainfall (July-August) with increasing drought like conditions over Kashmir and adjoining northern parts of Pakistan in future climate. The enhanced interannual variability of precipitation in future could further affect severely growth of various agricultural crops in mountainous parts of Kashmir.

  8. Systematic errors in Monsoon simulation: importance of the equatorial Indian Ocean processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Annamalai, H.; Taguchi, B.; McCreary, J. P., Jr.; Nagura, M.; Miyama, T.

    2015-12-01

    H. Annamalai1, B. Taguchi2, J.P. McCreary1, J. Hafner1, M. Nagura2, and T. Miyama2 International Pacific Research Center, University of Hawaii, USA Application Laboratory, JAMSTEC, Japan In climate models, simulating the monsoon precipitation climatology remains a grand challenge. Compared to CMIP3, the multi-model-mean (MMM) errors for Asian-Australian monsoon (AAM) precipitation climatology in CMIP5, relative to GPCP observations, have shown little improvement. One of the implications is that uncertainties in the future projections of time-mean changes to AAM rainfall may not have reduced from CMIP3 to CMIP5. Despite dedicated efforts by the modeling community, the progress in monsoon modeling is rather slow. This leads us to wonder: Has the scientific community reached a "plateau" in modeling mean monsoon precipitation? Our focus here is to better understanding of the coupled air-sea interactions, and moist processes that govern the precipitation characteristics over the tropical Indian Ocean where large-scale errors persist. A series idealized coupled model experiments are performed to test the hypothesis that errors in the coupled processes along the equatorial Indian Ocean during inter-monsoon seasons could potentially influence systematic errors during the monsoon season. Moist static energy budget diagnostics has been performed to identify the leading moist and radiative processes that account for the large-scale errors in the simulated precipitation. As a way forward, we propose three coordinated efforts, and they are: (i) idealized coupled model experiments; (ii) process-based diagnostics and (iii) direct observations to constrain model physics. We will argue that a systematic and coordinated approach in the identification of the various interactive processes that shape the precipitation basic state needs to be carried out, and high-quality observations over the data sparse monsoon region are needed to validate models and further improve model physics.

  9. Possible Impacts of the Arctic Oscillation on the Interdecadal Variation of Summer Monsoon Rainfall in East Asia

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    JU Jianhua; L(U) Junmei; CAO Jie; REN Juzhang

    2005-01-01

    The influences of the wintertime AO (Arctic Oscillation) on the interdecadal variation of summer monsoon rainfall in East Asia were examined. An interdecadal abrupt change was found by the end of the 1970s in the variation of the AO index and the leading principal component time series of the summer rainfall in East Asia. The rainfall anomaly changed from below normal to above normal in central China, the southern part of northeastern China and the Korean peninsula around 1978. However,the opposite interdecadal variation was found in the rainfall anomaly in North China and South China.The interdecadal variation of summer rainfall is associated with the weakening of the East Asia summer monsoon circulation. It is indicated that the interdecadal variation of the AO exerts an influence on the weakening of the monsoon circulation. The recent trend in the AO toward its high-index polarity during the past two decades plays important roles in the land-sea contrast anomalies and wintertime precipitation anomaly. The mid- and high-latitude regions of the Asian continent are warming, while the low-latitude regions are cooling in winter and spring along with the AO entering its high-index polarity after the late 1970s. In the meantime, the precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau and South China is excessive, implying an increase of soil moisture. The cooling tendency of the land in the southern part of Asia will persist until summer because of the memory of soil moisture. So the warming of the Asian continent is relatively slow in summer. Moreover, the Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean, which are located southward and eastward of the Asian land, are warming from winter to summer. This suggests that the contrast between the land and sea is decreased in summer. The interdecadal decrease of the land-sea heat contrast finally leads to the weakening of the East Asia summer monsoon circulation.

  10. Potential impact of the May Southern Hemisphere annular mode on the Indian summer monsoon rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dou, Juan; Wu, Zhiwei; Zhou, Yefan

    2016-10-01

    El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is probably a most important external forcing to Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall (ISMR), yet the observed ENSO-ISMR relationship has become weak in recent years. It's essential to explore other predominant modes of variability which can contribute to the ISMR. As the leading mode of the variability in Southern Hemisphere (SH) extratropical atmospheric circulation, the SH annular mode (SAM) has potential influence both on the northern and southern hemispheric climate. The present study investigates the relationship between the SAM and ISMR. It is found that the May SAM exhibits a significant positive correlation with the monsoon precipitation over the Indian sub-continent and the adjacent areas in June-July (JJ). Observational and numerical evidences indicate that the May SAM anomaly can trigger a South Indian Ocean dipole (SIOD) sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) through air-sea interactions. The SIOD SSTA persisting into the following months of JJ excites abnormal meridional circulation and modulates the low-level cross-equatorial flow. Accordingly, the ascending (or descending) motion and water vapor transportation are enhanced (or suppressed), which favors more (or less) precipitation over the Indian sub-continent and the adjacent areas. In fact, the SIOD SSTA plays an "ocean bridge" role to "prolong" the influence of the May SAM to the subsequent season and in turn impacts on the ISMR. Moreover, an empirical model is established to forecast the JJ ISMR strength based on the ENSO, Indian Ocean Dipole and May SAM. The hindcast is carried out for the period 1979-2014, and performs better than the multimodel ensemble mean (MME) obtained from the Development of a European MME system for seasonal to interannual prediction (DEMETER) project. Since all these predictors can be monitored in real time before the early boreal summer, the empirical model might provide a practical real-time forecast tool for predicting ISMR

  11. Potential impact of the May Southern Hemisphere annular mode on the Indian summer monsoon rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dou, Juan; Wu, Zhiwei; Zhou, Yefan

    2017-08-01

    El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is probably a most important external forcing to Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall (ISMR), yet the observed ENSO-ISMR relationship has become weak in recent years. It's essential to explore other predominant modes of variability which can contribute to the ISMR. As the leading mode of the variability in Southern Hemisphere (SH) extratropical atmospheric circulation, the SH annular mode (SAM) has potential influence both on the northern and southern hemispheric climate. The present study investigates the relationship between the SAM and ISMR. It is found that the May SAM exhibits a significant positive correlation with the monsoon precipitation over the Indian sub-continent and the adjacent areas in June-July (JJ). Observational and numerical evidences indicate that the May SAM anomaly can trigger a South Indian Ocean dipole (SIOD) sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) through air-sea interactions. The SIOD SSTA persisting into the following months of JJ excites abnormal meridional circulation and modulates the low-level cross-equatorial flow. Accordingly, the ascending (or descending) motion and water vapor transportation are enhanced (or suppressed), which favors more (or less) precipitation over the Indian sub-continent and the adjacent areas. In fact, the SIOD SSTA plays an "ocean bridge" role to "prolong" the influence of the May SAM to the subsequent season and in turn impacts on the ISMR. Moreover, an empirical model is established to forecast the JJ ISMR strength based on the ENSO, Indian Ocean Dipole and May SAM. The hindcast is carried out for the period 1979-2014, and performs better than the multimodel ensemble mean (MME) obtained from the Development of a European MME system for seasonal to interannual prediction (DEMETER) project. Since all these predictors can be monitored in real time before the early boreal summer, the empirical model might provide a practical real-time forecast tool for predicting ISMR

  12. Factors affecting the inter-annual to centennial timescale variability of Indian summer monsoon rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malik, Abdul; Brönnimann, Stefan

    2017-09-01

    The Modes of Ocean Variability (MOV) namely Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) can have significant impacts on Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) on different timescales. The timescales at which these MOV interacts with ISMR and the factors which may perturb their relationship with ISMR need to be investigated. We employ De-trended Cross-Correlation Analysis (DCCA), and De-trended Partial-Cross-Correlation Analysis (DPCCA) to study the timescales of interaction of ISMR with AMO, PDO, and ENSO using observational dataset (AD 1854-1999), and atmosphere-ocean-chemistry climate model simulations with SOCOL-MPIOM (AD 1600-1999). Further, this study uses De-trended Semi-Partial Cross-Correlation Analysis (DSPCCA) to address the relation between solar variability and the ISMR. We find statistically significant evidence of intrinsic correlations of ISMR with AMO, PDO, and ENSO on different timescales, consistent between model simulations and observations. However, the model fails to capture modulation in intrinsic relationship between ISRM and MOV due to external signals. Our analysis indicates that AMO is a potential source of non-stationary relationship between ISMR and ENSO. Furthermore, the pattern of correlation between ISMR and Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) is inconsistent between observations and model simulations. The observational dataset indicates statistically insignificant negative intrinsic correlation between ISMR and TSI on decadal-to-centennial timescales. This statistically insignificant negative intrinsic correlation is transformed to statistically significant positive extrinsic by AMO on 61-86-year timescale. We propose a new mechanism for Sun-monsoon connection which operates through AMO by changes in summer (June-September; JJAS) meridional gradient of tropospheric temperatures (ΔTTJJAS). There is a negative (positive) intrinsic correlation between ΔTTJJAS (AMO) and

  13. Summer Asian-Pacific Oscillation and Its Relationship with Atmospheric Circulation and Monsoon Rainfall

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHAO Ping; CHEN Junming; XIAO Dong; NAN Sulan; ZOU Yan; ZHOU Botao

    2008-01-01

    Using the ERA-40 data and numerical simulations, this study investigated the teleconnection over the extratropical Asian-Pacific region and its relationship with the Asian monsoon rainfall and the climatological characteristics of tropical cyclones over the western North Pacific, and analyzed impacts of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) heating and Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) on the teleconnection. The Asian-Pacific oscillation (APO) is defined as a zonal seesaw of the tropospheric temperature in the midlatitudes of the Asian-Pacific region. When the troposphere is cooling in the midlatitudes of the Asian continent, it is warming in the midlatitudes of the central and eastern North Pacific; and vice versa. The APO also appears in the stratosphere, but with a reversed phase. Used as an index of the thermal contrast between Asia and the North Pacific, it provides a new way to explore interactions between the Asian and Pacific atmospheric circulations. The APO index exhibits the interannual and interdecadal variability. It shows a downward trend during 1958-2001, indicating a weakening of the thermal contrast, and shows a 5.5-yr oscillation period. The formation of the APO is associated with the zonal vertical circulation caused by a difference in the solar radiative heating between the Asian continent and the North Pacific. The numerical simulations further reveal that the summer TP heating enhances the local tropospheric temperature and upward motion, and then strengthens downward motion and decreases the tropospheric temperature over the central and eastern North Pacific. This leads to the formation of the APO. The Pacific decadal oscillation and El Nino/La Nina over the tropical eastern Pacific do not exert strong influences on the APO. When there is an anomaly in the summer APO, the South Asian high, the westerly jet over Eurasia, the tropical easterly jet over South Asia, and the subtropical high over the North Pacific change significantly, with anomalous Asian

  14. Subseasonal to multidecadal variability of northeast monsoon daily rainfall over Peninsular Malaysia using a hidden Markov model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Wei Lun; Yusof, Fadhilah; Yusop, Zulkifli

    2017-07-01

    This study involves the modelling of a homogeneous hidden Markov model (HMM) on the northeast rainfall monsoon using 40 rainfall stations in Peninsular Malaysia for the period of 1975 to 2008. A six hidden states HMM was selected based on Bayesian information criterion (BIC), and every hidden state has distinct rainfall characteristics. Three of the states were found to correspond by wet conditions; while the remaining three states were found to correspond to dry conditions. The six hidden states were found to correspond with the associated atmospheric composites. The relationships between El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the sea surface temperatures (SST) in the Pacific Ocean are found regarding interannual variability. The wet (dry) states were found to be well correlated with a Niño 3.4 index which was used to characterize the intensity of an ENSO event. This model is able to assess the behaviour of the rainfall characteristics with the large scale atmospheric circulation; the monsoon rainfall is well correlated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation in Peninsular Malaysia.

  15. Subseasonal to multidecadal variability of northeast monsoon daily rainfall over Peninsular Malaysia using a hidden Markov model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Wei Lun; Yusof, Fadhilah; Yusop, Zulkifli

    2016-04-01

    This study involves the modelling of a homogeneous hidden Markov model (HMM) on the northeast rainfall monsoon using 40 rainfall stations in Peninsular Malaysia for the period of 1975 to 2008. A six hidden states HMM was selected based on Bayesian information criterion (BIC), and every hidden state has distinct rainfall characteristics. Three of the states were found to correspond by wet conditions; while the remaining three states were found to correspond to dry conditions. The six hidden states were found to correspond with the associated atmospheric composites. The relationships between El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the sea surface temperatures (SST) in the Pacific Ocean are found regarding interannual variability. The wet (dry) states were found to be well correlated with a Niño 3.4 index which was used to characterize the intensity of an ENSO event. This model is able to assess the behaviour of the rainfall characteristics with the large scale atmospheric circulation; the monsoon rainfall is well correlated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation in Peninsular Malaysia.

  16. Intra-seasonal oscillations associated with Indian Ocean warm pool and summer monsoon rainfall and their inter-annual variability

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Muraleedharan, P.M.; Nisha, P.G.; Sathe, P.V.; Sivakumar, K.U.

    is found to be propagating northward and their link to the Indian summer monsoon rainfall has been well documented (Yasunari, 1979; Krishnamurti and Subramanium, 1982; Gautier and Di Julio, 1990) Western equatorial Pacific and eastern equatorial Indian... been reported by Yasunary (1979, 1980) using satellite mosaic pictures of cloudiness over South Asia. Krishnamurty and Subramanium (1982) documented meridional propagation of a train of troughs and ridges from the equator to about 30 N over the Indian...

  17. Association between premonsoonal SST anomaly field in the eastern Arabian Sea and subsequent monsoon rainfall over the west coast of India

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Sadhuram, Y.; RameshBabu, V.; Gopalakrishna, V.V.; Sarma, M.S.S.

    -September) summer monsoon rainfall over the central west coast of India. Premonsoonal warm SST anomaly seems to be mainly the result of higher atmospheric subsidence over the ocean and may not be considered as predictor for a good ensuing monsoon, emphasizing...

  18. Global surface temperature in relation to northeast monsoon rainfall over Tamil Nadu

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    S Balachandran; R Asokan; S Sridharan

    2006-06-01

    The local and teleconnective association between Northeast Monsoon Rainfall (NEMR)over Tamil Nadu and global Surface Temperature Anomalies (STA)is examined using the monthly grid-ded STA data for the period 1901-2004.Various geographical regions which have significant tele-connective signals associated with NEMR are identi fied.During excess (deficient)NEMR years,it is observed that the meridional gradient in surface air temperature anomalies between Europe and north Africa,in the month of September is directed from the subtropics (higher latitudes)to higher latitudes (subtropics).It is also observed that North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)during September in fluences the surface air temperature distribution over north Africa and Europe.Also,the NAO index in January shows significant inverse relationship with NEMR since recent times.The central and eastern equatorial Pacific oceanic regions have signi ficant and consistent positive correlation with NEMR while the western equatorial region has significant negative correlation with NEMR. A zonal temperature anomaly gradient index (ZTAGI)de fined between eastern equatorial Pacific and western equatorial Pacific shows stable significant inverse relationship with NEMR.

  19. Maritime Continent rainfall variability during the TRMM era: The role of monsoon, topography and El Niño Modoki

    Science.gov (United States)

    As-syakur, Abd. Rahman; Osawa, Takahiro; Miura, Fusanori; Nuarsa, I. Wayan; Ekayanti, Ni Wayan; Dharma, I. Gusti Bagus Sila; Adnyana, I. Wayan Sandi; Arthana, I. Wayan; Tanaka, Tasuku

    2016-09-01

    Rainfall is among the most important climatic elements of the Maritime Continent. The Maritime Continent rainfall climate is uniquely located in the world's most active convective area. Satellite data measured by the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B43 based high-resolution rainfall products represent monthly Maritime Continent rainfall characteristics over 16 years. Several statistical scores were employed to analyse annual means, linear trends, seasonal means, and anomalous Maritime Continent rainfall characteristic percentages. The effects of land and topography on rainfall quantities were also studied and compared with the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) gridded precipitation estimates which has low-resolution. Comparison also applied on linear correlation and partial correlation techniques to determine the relationship between rainfall and the El Niño Modoki and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO; hereafter conventional El Niño). The results show that north-south Maritime Continent precipitation is associated with and generated by the northwest and southeast monsoon patterns. In addition, the large-scale circulations are linked with heavy rainfall over this land-ocean region due to large-scale island-topography-induced convective organization. The rainfall responses to El Niño Modoki and conventional El Niño clearly indicated the times at which the conventional El Niño had a higher impact than El Niño Modoki, especially during northern winter and spring, and vice versa during northern fall, and similarly affect during northern summer. Furthermore, the dynamic movements of rainfall anomaly that are caused by El Niño Modoki and the conventional El Niño events spanned from the southwest during June-July-August (JJA) to throughout the northeast ending in March-April-May (MAM).

  20. Spatial and Temporal Variations in Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall and Temperature: An Analysis Based on RegCM3 Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dash, S. K.; Mamgain, Ashu; Pattnayak, K. C.; Giorgi, F.

    2013-04-01

    Regional climate models are important tools to examine the spatial and temporal characteristics of rainfall and temperature at high resolutions. Such information has potential applications in sectors like agriculture and health. In this study, the Regional Climate Model Version 3 (RegCM3) has been integrated in the ensemble mode at 55 km resolution over India for the summer monsoon season during the years 1982-2009. Emphasis has been given on the validation of the model simulation at the regional level. In Central India, both rainfall and temperature show the best correlations with respective observed values. The model gives rise to large wet biases over Northwest and Peninsular India. RegCM3 slightly underestimates the summer monsoon precipitation over the Central and Northeast India. Nevertheless, over these regions, RegCM3 simulated rainfall is closer to the observations when compared to the other regions where rainfall is overestimated. The position of the monsoon trough simulated by the model lies to the north of its original observed position. This is similar to the usual monsoon break conditions leading to less rainfall over Central India. RegCM3 simulated surface maximum temperature shows a large negative bias over the country while the surface minimum temperature is close to the observation. Nevertheless, there is a strong correlation between the all India weighted average surface temperature simulated by RegCM3 and IMD observed values. While examining the extreme weather conditions in Central India, it is found that RegCM3 simulated frequencies of occurrence of very wet days, extremely wet days, warm days and warm nights more often as compared to those in IMD observed values. However, these are systematic biases. The model biases in the frequencies of distribution of rainfall extremes explain the wet and dry biases in different regions in the country. Overall, the inter-annual characteristics of both the rainfall and temperature extremes simulated by Reg

  1. Influence of upper ocean on Indian summer monsoon rainfall: studies by observation and NCEP climate forecast system (CFSv2)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaudhari, Hemantkumar S.; Pokhrel, Samir; Rahman, H.; Dhakate, A.; Saha, Subodh K.; Pentakota, S.; Gairola, R. M.

    2016-08-01

    This study explores the role played by ocean processes in influencing Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) and compares the observed findings with National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)-coupled model Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2). The excess and deficit ISMR clearly brings out the distinct signatures in sea surface height (SSH) anomaly, thermocline and mixed layer depth over north Indian Ocean. CFSv2 is successful in simulating SSH anomalies, especially over Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal region. CFSv2 captures observed findings of SSH anomalies during flood and drought (e.g., Rossby wave propagation which reaches western Bay of Bengal (BoB) during flood years, Rossby wave propagation which did not reach western BoB during drought). It highlights the ability of CFSv2 to simulate the basic ocean processes which governs the SSH variability. These differences are basically generated by upwelling and downwelling caused by the equatorial and coastal Kelvin and Rossby waves, thereby causing difference in SSH anomaly and thermocline, and subsequently modifying the convection centers, which dictates precipitation over the Indian subcontinent region. Since the observed SSH anomaly and thermal structure show distinct characteristic features with respect to strong and weak ISMR variability, the assimilation of real ocean data in terms of satellite products (like SSHA from AVISO/SARAL) bestow great promise for the future improvement.

  2. Impact of vegetation on the simulation of seasonal monsoon rainfall over the Indian subcontinent using a regional model

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Surya K Dutta; Someshwar Das; S C Kar; U C Mohanty; P C Joshi

    2009-10-01

    The change in the type of vegetation fraction can induce major changes in the local effects such as local evaporation,surface radiation,etc.,that in turn induces changes in the model simulated outputs.The present study deals with the effects of vegetation in climate modeling over the Indian region using the MM5 mesoscale model.The main objective of the present study is to investigate the impact of vegetation dataset derived from SPOT satellite by ISRO (Indian Space Research Organization)versus that of USGS (United States Geological Survey)vegetation dataset on the simulation of the Indian summer monsoon.The present study has been conducted for five monsoon seasons (1998 –2002),giving emphasis over the two contrasting southwest monsoon seasons of 1998 (normal)and 2002 (deficient). The study reveals mixed results on the impact of vegetation datasets generated by ISRO and USGS on the simulations of the monsoon.Results indicate that the ISRO data has a positive impact on the simulations of the monsoon over northeastern India and along the western coast.The MM5- USGS has greater tendency of overestimation of rainfall.It has higher standard deviation indicating that it induces a dispersive effect on the rainfall simulation.Among the five years of study,it is seen that the RMSE of July and JJAS (June –July –August –September)for All India Rainfall is mostly lower for MM5-ISRO.Also,the bias of July and JJAS rainfall is mostly closer to unity for MM5-ISRO.The wind fields at 850 hPa and 200 hPa are also better simulated by MM5 using ISRO vegetation.The synoptic features like Somali jet and Tibetan anticyclone are simulated closer to the veri fication analysis by ISRO vegetation.The 2 m air temperature is also better simulated by ISRO vegetation over the northeastern India,showing greater spatial variability over the region. However,the JJAS total rainfall over north India and Deccan coast is better simulated using the USGS vegetation.Sensible heat flux over

  3. Indian summer monsoon rainfall variability in response to differences in the decay phase of El Niño

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chowdary, Jasti S.; Harsha, H. S.; Gnanaseelan, C.; Srinivas, G.; Parekh, Anant; Pillai, Prasanth; Naidu, C. V.

    2016-06-01

    In general the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall is near normal or excess during the El Niño decay phase. Nevertheless the impact of large variations in decaying El Niño on the ISM rainfall and circulation is not systematically examined. Based on the timing of El Niño decay with respect to boreal summer season, El Niño decay phases are classified into three types in this study using 142 years of sea surface temperature (SST) data, which are as follows: (1) early-decay (ED; decay during spring), (2) mid-summer decay (MD; decay by mid-summer) and (3) no-decay (ND; no decay in summer). It is observed that ISM rainfall is above normal/excess during ED years, normal during MD years and below normal/deficit in ND years, suggesting that the differences in El Niño decay phase display profound impact on the ISM rainfall. Tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) SST warming, induced by El Niño, decays rapidly before the second half of the monsoon season (August and September) in ED years, but persists up to the end of the season in MD years, whereas TIO warming maintained up to winter in ND case. Analysis reveals the existence of strong sub-seasonal ISM rainfall variations in the summer following El Niño years. During ED years, strong negative SST anomalies develop over the equatorial central-eastern Pacific by June and are apparent throughout the summer season accompanied by anomalous moisture divergence and high sea level pressure (SLP). The associated moisture convergence and low SLP over ISM region favour excess rainfall (mainly from July onwards). This circulation and rainfall anomalies are highly influenced by warm TIO SST and Pacific La Niña conditions in ED years. Convergence of southwesterlies from Arabian Sea and northeasterlies from Bay of Bengal leads to positive rainfall over most part of the Indian subcontinent from August onwards in MD years. ND years are characterized by negative rainfall anomaly spatial pattern and weaker circulation over India throughout the

  4. Indian summer monsoon rainfall variability during 2014 and 2015 and associated Indo-Pacific upper ocean temperature patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kakatkar, Rashmi; Gnanaseelan, C.; Chowdary, J. S.; Parekh, Anant; Deepa, J. S.

    2017-01-01

    In this study, factors responsible for the deficit Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) rainfall in 2014 and 2015 and the ability of Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology-Global Ocean Data Assimilation System (IITM-GODAS) in representing the oceanic features are examined. IITM-GODAS has been used to provide initial conditions for seasonal forecast in India during 2014 and 2015. The years 2014 and 2015 witnessed deficit ISM rainfall but were evolved from two entirely different preconditions over Pacific. This raises concern over the present understanding of the role of Pacific Ocean on ISM variability. Analysis reveals that the mechanisms associated with the rainfall deficit over the Indian Subcontinent are different in the two years. It is found that remote forcing in summer of 2015 due to El Niño is mostly responsible for the deficit monsoon rainfall through changes in Walker circulation and large-scale subsidence. In the case of the summer of 2014, both local circulation with anomalous anticyclone over central India and intrusion of mid-latitude dry winds from north have contributed for the deficit rainfall. In addition to the above, Tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) sea surface temperature (SST) and remote forcing from Pacific Ocean also modulated the ISM rainfall. It is observed that Pacific SST warming has extended westward in 2014, making it a basin scale warming unlike the strong El Niño year 2015. The eastern equatorial Indian Ocean is anomalously warmer than west in summer of 2014, and vice versa in 2015. These differences in SST in both tropical Pacific and TIO have considerable impact on ISM rainfall in 2014 and 2015. The study reveals that initializing coupled forecast models with proper upper ocean temperature over the Indo-Pacific is therefore essential for improved model forecast. It is important to note that the IITM-GODAS which assimilates only array for real-time geostrophic oceanography (ARGO) temperature and salinity profiles could capture most of the

  5. 18O depletion in monsoon rain relates to large scale organized convection rather than the amount of rainfall.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lekshmy, P R; Midhun, M; Ramesh, R; Jani, R A

    2014-07-11

    Oxygen isotopic variations in rainfall proxies such as tree rings and cave calcites from South and East Asia have been used to reconstruct past monsoon variability, mainly through the amount effect: the observed (18)O depletion of rain with increasing amount, manifested as a negative correlation of the monthly amount of tropical rain with its δ(18)O, both measured at the same station. This relation exhibits a significant spatial variability, and at some sites (especially North-East and peninsular India), the rainfall proxies are not interpretable by this effect. We show here that relatively higher (18)O-depletion in monsoon rain is not related necessarily to its amount, but rather, to large scale organized convection. Presenting δ(18)O analyses of ~654 samples of daily rain collected during summer 2012 across 9 stations in Kerala, southern India, we demonstrate that although the cross correlations between the amounts of rainfall in different stations is insignificant, the δ(18)O values of rain exhibit highly coherent variations (significant at P = 0.05). Significantly more (18)O-depletion in the rain is caused by clouds only during events with a large spatial extent of clouds observable over in the south eastern Arabian Sea.

  6. North Atlantic and orbital controls on North American Monsoon rainfall for the past 25,000 years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lachniet, M. S.; Bernal-Uruchurtu, J. P.; Asmerom, Y.; Polyak, V.; Vazquez-Selem, L.

    2011-12-01

    The paleoclimate controls on Mexican rainfall remain poorly understood, making it difficult to test hypotheses of late Quaternary climate changes in the North American Monsoon region. A high-resolution and chronologically robust integrative paleoclimate history for central and southwestern Mexico is required to evaluate the climate context associated with the late glacial peopling of Mesoamerica, the Holocene domestication of maize, and climate's influence on several advanced pre-Colombian civilizations. Herein, we combine new and previously published precipitation- and temperature-sensitive proxy records to delineate the paleoclimatic history of the "Mesoamerican Monsoon" region since ca. 25,000 yr BP, from stalagmite, glacial, and lacustrine paleoclimatic data. Our results demonstrate a wet last glacial maximum (23 to 18 ka) in southwestern Mexico at 17.4 degrees N, a region that today is outside the influence of nortes or the westerlies. Wet conditions may be attributed to a moderately strong summer monsoon due to near-modern summer insolation values and a cooler eastern tropical Pacific Ocean akin to a modern La Niña-like state. We also document Heinrich stadial 1 and Younger Dryas monsoon weakening coincident with reduced North Atlantic thermohaline circulation, which implicates reduced onshore moisture flux due to a weaker and more southerly position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. Mesoamerican rainfall was greatest during the early Holocene, and decreased non-linearly to the present in concert with decreasing local summer insolation. Following a relative mid-Holocene wet period, the last 4.5 ka are characterized by increasingly dry conditions, likely related to decreasing summer insolation and a greater El Niño frequency.

  7. Modeling the Influences of Aerosols on Pre-Monsoon Circulation and Rainfall over Southeast Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, D.; Sud, Y. C.; Oreopoulos, L.; Kim, K.-M.; Lau, W. K.; Kang, I.-S.

    2014-01-01

    We conduct several sets of simulations with a version of NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System, version 5, (GEOS-5) Atmospheric Global Climate Model (AGCM) equipped with a two-moment cloud microphysical scheme to understand the role of biomass burning aerosol (BBA) emissions in Southeast Asia (SEA) in the pre-monsoon period of February-May. Our experiments are designed so that both direct and indirect aerosol effects can be evaluated. For climatologically prescribed monthly sea surface temperatures, we conduct sets of model integrations with and without biomass burning emissions in the area of peak burning activity, and with direct aerosol radiative effects either active or inactive. Taking appropriate differences between AGCM experiment sets, we find that BBA affects liquid clouds in statistically significantly ways, increasing cloud droplet number concentrations, decreasing droplet effective radii (i.e., a classic aerosol indirect effect), and locally suppressing precipitation due to a deceleration of the autoconversion process, with the latter effect apparently also leading to cloud condensate increases. Geographical re-arrangements of precipitation patterns, with precipitation increases downwind of aerosol sources are also seen, most likely because of advection of weakly precipitating cloud fields. Somewhat unexpectedly, the change in cloud radiative effect (cloud forcing) at surface is in the direction of lesser cooling because of decreases in cloud fraction. Overall, however, because of direct radiative effect contributions, aerosols exert a net negative forcing at both the top of the atmosphere and, perhaps most importantly, the surface, where decreased evaporation triggers feedbacks that further reduce precipitation. Invoking the approximation that direct and indirect aerosol effects are additive, we estimate that the overall precipitation reduction is about 40% due to the direct effects of absorbing aerosols, which stabilize the atmosphere and reduce

  8. The 20th century transitions in basic and extreme monsoon rainfall indices in India: Comparison of the ETCCDI indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panda, Dileep K.; Panigrahi, P.; Mohanty, S.; Mohanty, R. K.; Sethi, R. R.

    2016-11-01

    The mean and extreme matrices of the monsoon rainfall in India not only play an important role in depicting the global monsoon climate, but also their spatiotemporal patterns influence the socio-economic profile of a major proportion of the country's huge population. Given the reported conflicting trends at the global and national scales, the present study investigates the 20th century (1901-2004) changes in monsoon rainfall of India, particularly focusing the indices developed by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) to facilitate a global comparison. Result of this comprehensive analysis, which includes the response of fifteen indices over two study periods (i.e., 1901-1940 and 1961-2004), indicates clear signals of change with respect to the period and region of study and the choice of the ETCCDI indices. While wet day frequency, low-to-moderate events and consecutive wet days (CWD) exhibit a prominent transition from a pre-1940 wetting to a post-1960 drying tendency over a large part of the central-north India (CNI), both the wet and dry extremes have occurred in a spatially less consistent manner during the recent decades. For consecutive dry days (CDD), the reported less clear global signals could be related to the timescale of analysis, as our sub-seasonal scale results display consistent changes compared to that of the seasonal and annual scales. The Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) provides clear indications of a post-1960 non-stationarity, showing changes in the mean as well as variance. Based on the partial Mann-Kendall test (PMK), some of the identified rainfall trends during 1961-2004 are found to be influenced more by the tropical Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures than the El Niño-Southern Oscillation index. These results have important implications for formulating the water resource management strategy, particularly over the drying central and northern parts of the country.

  9. Multi-ensemble regional simulation of Indian monsoon during contrasting rainfall years: role of convective schemes and nested domain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Devanand, Anjana; Ghosh, Subimal; Paul, Supantha; Karmakar, Subhankar; Niyogi, Dev

    2017-08-01

    Regional simulations of the seasonal Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) require an understanding of the model sensitivities to physics and resolution, and its effect on the model uncertainties. It is also important to quantify the added value in the simulated sub-regional precipitation characteristics by a regional climate model (RCM), when compared to coarse resolution rainfall products. This study presents regional model simulations of ISMR at seasonal scale using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with the synoptic scale forcing from ERA-interim reanalysis, for three contrasting monsoon seasons, 1994 (excess), 2002 (deficit) and 2010 (normal). Impact of four cumulus schemes, viz., Kain-Fritsch (KF), Betts-Janjić-Miller, Grell 3D and modified Kain-Fritsch (KFm), and two micro physical parameterization schemes, viz., WRF Single Moment Class 5 scheme and Lin et al. scheme (LIN), with eight different possible combinations are analyzed. The impact of spectral nudging on model sensitivity is also studied. In WRF simulations using spectral nudging, improvement in model rainfall appears to be consistent in regions with topographic variability such as Central Northeast and Konkan Western Ghat sub-regions. However the results are also dependent on choice of cumulus scheme used, with KF and KFm providing relatively good performance and the eight member ensemble mean showing better results for these sub-regions. There is no consistent improvement noted in Northeast and Peninsular Indian monsoon regions. Results indicate that the regional simulations using nested domains can provide some improvements on ISMR simulations. Spectral nudging is found to improve upon the model simulations in terms of reducing the intra ensemble spread and hence the uncertainty in the model simulated precipitation. The results provide important insights regarding the need for further improvements in the regional climate simulations of ISMR for various sub-regions and contribute

  10. Dust load and rainfall characteristics and their relationship over the South Asian monsoon region under various warming scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Charu; Ganguly, Dilip; Dash, S. K.

    2017-08-01

    Present study investigates the similarities and differences in the pattern of dust load and rainfall and their relationship over the South Asian monsoon region under various future warming scenarios with respect to the historical period using multiple coupled climate model runs that participated in Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Based on statistically robust significance tests, we unravel several likely changes in the pattern of the dust load and rainfall over the South Asia under different future warming scenarios by the end of 21st century compared to the historical period. Kolmogorov-Smirnov test results reveal a significant change (at 5% significance level) in the amount of dust and rainfall under different warming scenarios over the study region. Northern part of the Indian subcontinent is likely to witness increased dust loading in future, and regions with increase in dust load are also likely to be the regions of increased rainfall over North India. Positive correlation between rainfall over the Indian region and dust over the Arabian region is also likely to strengthen in future. Considerable changes in the spatial correlation pattern between dust and rainfall are noted under different representative concentration pathways; however, no noteworthy changes are recorded in their temporal relationship. Notable intermodel differences in the patterns of dust load and rainfall relationship over South Asia are possibly caused by variations in the dust emission schemes among the CMIP5 models as well as the parameterization of aerosol indirect effect in addition to the differences in the meteorology simulated by various models under identical forcing scenarios.

  11. Influence of eastern Arabian Sea on summer monsoon rainfall over west coast of India

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    RameshBabu, V.; Rao, M.S.; Rao, M.V.

    anomaly field in the eastern Arabian Sea where larger atmospheric convection as compared to that over other parts of the water body normally takes place during the summer monsoon season. The present results based on observations during ten years' period...

  12. A Diagnostic Study of Heavy Rainfall in Karachi Due to Merging of a Mesoscale Low and a Diffused Tropical Depression during South Asian Summer Monsoon

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Ghulam RASUL; Qamar-uz-Zaman CHAUDHRY; ZHAO Sixiong; ZENG Qingcun; QI Linlin; ZHANG Gaoying

    2005-01-01

    This paper presents the results of a diagnostic study of a typical case of very heavy rainfall during the South Asian summer monsoon when a mesoscale low in a desert climate merged with a diffused tropical depression. The former low was located over Pakistan's desert region and the latter depression originated over the Bay of Bengal. Surface and NCEP reanalysis data supported by satellite and radar images were incorporated in the diagnosis. The relationship between the heavy precipitation process and large-scale circulations such as monsoon trough, subtropical high, westerly jet, low level jet and water vapor transport were investigated to further understand the mechanism of this peculiar interaction. It was found that: (1)the mesoscale low developed as a result of cold air advection aloft from northern latitudes and strong convection over the region of humidity convergence on 24 July 2003 over the Indian Rajistan area. (2) On the same day, a low that formed over the Bay of Bengal was transformed into a monsoon depression and moved westward to the mesoscale low which existed over southwest India and the adjoining southeastern parts of Pakistan. (3) Initially, the mesoscale low received moisture supply from both the Bay of Bengal as well as the Arabian Sea, whereas the Bay of Bengal maintained the continuous supply of moisture to the monsoon depression. (4) After the depression crossed central India, the Bay's moisture supply was cut off and the Arabian Sea became the only source of moisture to both the closely located systems. On 27July, both of the systems merged together and the merger resulted in a heavy downpour in the Karachi metropolitan and in its surroundings. (5) With the intensification as well as the southeastward extension of the subtropical high and the shift of the monsoon trough axis from southwest-west to northeast-east,the monsoon depression moved southwestward. In this situation, there existed a very favourable condition for a merger of the two

  13. Evapotranspiration of rubber (Hevea brasiliensis) under the highly seasonal rainfall regime of the Asian monsoon in mainland Southeast Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giambelluca, T. W.; Mudd, R. G.; Liu, W.; Kobayashi, N.; Ziegler, A. D.; Miyazawa, Y.; Kumagai, T.; Huang, M.

    2012-12-01

    The Asian Monsoon dominates the climate of the mainland Southeast Asia (MSEA) region, characterized by a highly seasonal rainfall regime in which 80-90% of annual rainfall occurs during the 6-month (May-October) wet season. The accompanying extremes in soil moisture, solar radiation, and vapor pressure deficit exert strong controls on ecosystem fluxes, including evapotranspiration (ET). Rubber (Hevea brasiliensis), the major commercial crop currently replacing traditional agriculture and secondary forests in MSEA is a native of the equatorial Amazon rainforest, and differs physiologically from the dominant native SE Asian forest tree species. It sheds its leaves in the middle of the dry season and flushes new leaves before the onset of the wet season. In some areas, rubber cultivation is suspected of having caused changes in local climate and watershed processes, including a dramatic downward trend in fog frequency and large increases in surface runoff and soil erosion (Wu et al., 2001, Int. J. Sust. Dev. World Ecol. 8:337-345). Guardiola-Claramonte et al. (2008, Ecohydrology 1:13-22; 2010, Ecohydrology 3:306-314) noted striking differences in the timing and rate of dry season root-water extraction under rubber as compared with other vegetation types. To investigate the environmental impacts of rubber, eddy covariance flux towers were installed to monitor energy, water, and carbon exchange at rubber plantation sites in northeastern Thailand and Cambodia. Results of the first two years of observations at the sites indicate that controls on ET differ between wet and dry seasons, with varying responses to energy, soil moisture, canopy wetness, and leaf area. Despite the long dry season and loss of leaves for several weeks, rubber accumulates exceptionally high annual ET totals, exceeding those of natural forest and other plant functional types in the region. The phenology of rubber represents a disruption of the land-atmosphere interactions of native and other non

  14. Prediction of a thermodynamic wave train from the monsoon to the Arctic following extreme rainfall events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krishnamurti, T. N.; Kumar, Vinay

    2016-06-01

    This study addresses numerical prediction of atmospheric wave trains that provide a monsoonal link to the Arctic ice melt. The monsoonal link is one of several ways that heat is conveyed to the Arctic region. This study follows a detailed observational study on thermodynamic wave trains that are initiated by extreme rain events of the northern summer south Asian monsoon. These wave trains carry large values of heat content anomalies, heat transports and convergence of flux of heat. These features seem to be important candidates for the rapid melt scenario. This present study addresses numerical simulation of the extreme rains, over India and Pakistan, and the generation of thermodynamic wave trains, simulations of large heat content anomalies, heat transports along pathways and heat flux convergences, potential vorticity and the diabatic generation of potential vorticity. We compare model based simulation of many features such as precipitation, divergence and the divergent wind with those evaluated from the reanalysis fields. We have also examined the snow and ice cover data sets during and after these events. This modeling study supports our recent observational findings on the monsoonal link to the rapid Arctic ice melt of the Canadian Arctic. This numerical modeling suggests ways to interpret some recent episodes of rapid ice melts that may require a well-coordinated field experiment among atmosphere, ocean, ice and snow cover scientists. Such a well-coordinated study would sharpen our understanding of this one component of the ice melt, i.e. the monsoonal link, which appears to be fairly robust.

  15. Prediction of a thermodynamic wave train from the monsoon to the Arctic following extreme rainfall events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krishnamurti, T. N.; Kumar, Vinay

    2017-04-01

    This study addresses numerical prediction of atmospheric wave trains that provide a monsoonal link to the Arctic ice melt. The monsoonal link is one of several ways that heat is conveyed to the Arctic region. This study follows a detailed observational study on thermodynamic wave trains that are initiated by extreme rain events of the northern summer south Asian monsoon. These wave trains carry large values of heat content anomalies, heat transports and convergence of flux of heat. These features seem to be important candidates for the rapid melt scenario. This present study addresses numerical simulation of the extreme rains, over India and Pakistan, and the generation of thermodynamic wave trains, simulations of large heat content anomalies, heat transports along pathways and heat flux convergences, potential vorticity and the diabatic generation of potential vorticity. We compare model based simulation of many features such as precipitation, divergence and the divergent wind with those evaluated from the reanalysis fields. We have also examined the snow and ice cover data sets during and after these events. This modeling study supports our recent observational findings on the monsoonal link to the rapid Arctic ice melt of the Canadian Arctic. This numerical modeling suggests ways to interpret some recent episodes of rapid ice melts that may require a well-coordinated field experiment among atmosphere, ocean, ice and snow cover scientists. Such a well-coordinated study would sharpen our understanding of this one component of the ice melt, i.e. the monsoonal link, which appears to be fairly robust.

  16. Regional Frequency Analysis of Annual Maximum Rainfall in Monsoon Region of Pakistan using L-moments

    OpenAIRE

    Amina Shahzadi; Ahmad Saeed Akhter; Betul Saf

    2013-01-01

    The estimation of magnitude and frequency of extreme rainfall has immense importance to make decisions about hydraulic structures like spillways, dikes and dams etc The main objective of this study is to get the best fit distributions for annual maximum rainfall data on regional basis in order to estimate the extreme rainfall events (quantiles) for various return periods. This study is carried out using index flood method using L-moments by Hosking and wallis (1997). The study is based on 23 ...

  17. Intra-Seasonal Oscillation (ISO) of south Kerala rainfall during the summer monsoons of 1901-1995

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    P V Joseph; Anu Simon; Venu G Nair; Aype Thomas

    2004-06-01

    Time series of daily averaged rainfall of about 40 rain gauge stations of south Kerala, situated at the southern-most part of peninsular India between latitudes about 8°N and 10°N were subjected to Wavelet Analysis to study the Intra Seasonal Oscillation (ISO) in the rainfall and its interannual variability. Of the 128 days, 29th May to 3rd October of each of the 95 years 1901-1995 were analysed. We find that the period of ISO does not vary during a monsoon season in most of the years, but it has large inter-annual variability in the range 23 to 64 days. Period-wise, the years cluster into two groups of ISO, the SHORT consisting of periods 23, 27 and 32 days and the LONG with a single period of 64 days, both the sets at a significance level of 99%. During the 95 years at this level of significance there are 44 years with SHORT and 20 years with LONG periods. 11 years have no ISO even at the 90% level of significance. We composited NCEP SST anomalies of the summer monsoon season June to September for two groups of years during the period 1965-1993. The first group is of 5 years with a LONG ISO period of 64 days for south Kerala rainfall at significance level of 99% and the second group is of 12 years with SHORT ISO periods of 23, 27 and 32 days at the same level of significance. The SST anomaly for the LONG (SHORT) ISO resembles that for an El Nino (La Nina).

  18. Similarity-based multi-model ensemble approach for 1-15-day advance prediction of monsoon rainfall over India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaiswal, Neeru; Kishtawal, C. M.; Bhomia, Swati

    2017-04-01

    The southwest (SW) monsoon season (June, July, August and September) is the major period of rainfall over the Indian region. The present study focuses on the development of a new multi-model ensemble approach based on the similarity criterion (SMME) for the prediction of SW monsoon rainfall in the extended range. This approach is based on the assumption that training with the similar type of conditions may provide the better forecasts in spite of the sequential training which is being used in the conventional MME approaches. In this approach, the training dataset has been selected by matching the present day condition to the archived dataset and days with the most similar conditions were identified and used for training the model. The coefficients thus generated were used for the rainfall prediction. The precipitation forecasts from four general circulation models (GCMs), viz. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), United Kingdom Meteorological Office (UKMO), National Centre for Environment Prediction (NCEP) and China Meteorological Administration (CMA) have been used for developing the SMME forecasts. The forecasts of 1-5, 6-10 and 11-15 days were generated using the newly developed approach for each pentad of June-September during the years 2008-2013 and the skill of the model was analysed using verification scores, viz. equitable skill score (ETS), mean absolute error (MAE), Pearson's correlation coefficient and Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency index. Statistical analysis of SMME forecasts shows superior forecast skill compared to the conventional MME and the individual models for all the pentads, viz. 1-5, 6-10 and 11-15 days.

  19. Decadal variability in snow depth anomaly over Eurasia and its association with all India summer monsoon rainfall and seasonal circulations

    CERN Document Server

    Singh, G P

    2003-01-01

    The Historical Soviet Daily Snow Depth (HSDSD) version II data set has been used in the computation of winter and spring snow depth anomalies over west (25 deg. E to 70 deg. E, 35 deg. N to 65 deg. N) and east (70 deg. E to 160 deg. E, 35 deg. N to 65 deg. N) Eurasia. It is noticed that winter snow depth anomaly over east Eurasia is positively correlated while west Eurasia is negatively correlated with subsequent Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR). The DJF snow depth anomaly shows highest and inverse correlation coefficient (CC) with ISMR over a large area of west Eurasia in a recent period of study i.e. 1975-1995. On the basis of standardised winter (mean of December, January and February) snow depth anomaly over west Eurasia, the years 1966, 1968, 1979 and 1986 are identified as high snow years and the years 1961 and 1975 as low snow years. The characteristics of seasonal monsoon circulation features have been studied in detail during contrasting years of less (more) snow depth in winter/spring seasons f...

  20. Influence of southern oscillation and SSTs over Nino-3.4 region on the winter monsoon rainfall over coastal Andhra Pradesh

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    O S R U Bhanu Kumar; C V Naidu; S R L Rao

    2004-09-01

    An analysis of the mean monthly data of 124 years reveals that the relationship between the Southern Oscillation Index in September and the winter monsoon rainfall (WMR) over Coastal Andhra Pradesh (CAP) is variable and non-stationary. In the recent four decades, however, SOI (Sept) is negatively and significantly correlated with CAP WMR. A similar analysis is performed using 50 years of mean monthly SSTs over Nino-3.4 region in August and September and CAP WMR to detect a possible relationship and there is a striking positive relation between them. In both of the above cases, the September signal is more significant in the recent four decades than for the other months and seasons for probable prediction of CAP WMR. Finally, to examine the influence of SO on the winter monsoon rainfall, a non-parametric test "Mann-Whitney Rank Statistics" test has been applied to the rainfall associated with extreme positive and negative SOI events.

  1. Regional Frequency Analysis of Annual Maximum Rainfall in Monsoon Region of Pakistan using L-moments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amina Shahzadi

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available The estimation of magnitude and frequency of extreme rainfall has immense importance to make decisions about hydraulic structures like spillways, dikes and dams etc The main objective of this study is to get the best fit distributions for annual maximum rainfall data on regional basis in order to estimate the extreme rainfall events (quantiles for various return periods. This study is carried out using index flood method using L-moments by Hosking and wallis (1997. The study is based on 23 sites of rainfall which are divided into three homogeneous regions. The collective results of L-moment ratio diagram, Z-statistic and AWD values show the GLO, GEV and GNO to be best fit for all three regions and in addition PE3 for region 3. On the basis of relative RMSE, for region 1 and region 2, GLO, GEV and GNO are producing approximately the same relative RMSE for return periods upto 100. While GNO is producing less relative RMSE for large return periods of 500 and 1000. So for large return periods GNO could be best distribution. For region 3 GLO, GEV, GNO and PE3 are having approximately the same relative RMSE for return periods upto 100. While for large return periods of 500 and 1000 PE3 could be best on basis of less relative RMSE.

  2. The Effects of Rainfall Pulses on Soil Nitrogen Availability in a Chihuahuan Desert Grassland During the Summer Monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, R. F.; Collins, S. L.; White, C. S.; Sinsabaugh, R. L.

    2015-12-01

    Nitrogen (N) is an essential but limiting nutrient in most terrestrial environments. While numerous studies have demonstrated a tight coupling between soil N availability and soil volumetric water content, this relationship is not well understood in desert ecosystems where rain events create pulses of biological activity, such as microbial secretion of extracellular enzymes that enable nutrient acquisition. Moreover, climate models are projecting shifts in the size and frequency of rain events across semi-arid ecosystems as a result of anthropogenic activities; therefore these changes are expected to have consequences for soil N availability in these regions. The goals of this study were to determine (1) if soil N availability pulses in response to monsoon rain events of differing size and frequency, and (2) how soil N availability varies over the course of a monsoon season in a semi-arid grassland. To answer these questions, we analyzed soils collected from a northern Chihuahuan Desert grassland during the 2014 summer monsoon. Soils were collected monthly over a period of eight days in conjunction with experimentally manipulated irrigation treatments that varied in both size (small=5mm and large=20mm) and frequency (small=weekly (n=12) and large=monthly (n=3)). Using KCl extraction, soils were processed for their inorganic plant-available nitrogen content (NH4+-N and NO3--N). We found that while soil N availability increased over the monsoon season across all treatment types, large events appeared to saturate soils, creating anaerobic conditions that stimulated nitrogen loss most likely through the denitrification pathway. Soils were also assayed for nitrogen specific extracellular enzyme activities, specifically leucine aminopeptidase (LAP), which breaks down the bond in leucine amino acids to mobilize nitrogen, and N-acetylglucosaminidase (NAG), which breaks down amino sugars in microbial cell walls. Preliminary results suggest that by mid-monsoon, LAP activity

  3. Experimental real-time multi-model ensemble (MME) prediction of rainfall during Monsoon 2008: Large-scale medium-range aspects

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    A K Mitra; G R Iyengar; V R Durai; J Sanjay; T N Krishnamurti; A Mishra; D R Sikka

    2011-02-01

    Realistic simulation/prediction of the Asian summer monsoon rainfall on various space–time scales is a challenging scientific task. Compared to mid-latitudes, a proportional skill improvement in the prediction of monsoon rainfall in the medium range has not happened in recent years. Global models and data assimilation techniques are being improved for monsoon/tropics. However, multi-model ensemble (MME) forecasting is gaining popularity, as it has the potential to provide more information for practical forecasting in terms of making a consensus forecast and handling model uncertainties. As major centers are exchanging model output in near real-time, MME is a viable inexpensive way of enhancing the forecasting skill and information content. During monsoon 2008, on an experimental basis, an MME forecasting of large-scale monsoon precipitation in the medium range was carried out in real-time at National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF), India. Simple ensemble mean (EMN) giving equal weight to member models, bias-corrected ensemble mean (BCEMn) and MME forecast, where different weights are given to member models, are the products of the algorithm tested here. In general, the aforementioned products from the multi-model ensemble forecast system have a higher skill than individual model forecasts. The skill score for the Indian domain and other sub-regions indicates that the BCEMn produces the best result, compared to EMN and MME. Giving weights to different models to obtain an MME product helps to improve individual member models only marginally. It is noted that for higher rainfall values, the skill of the global model rainfall forecast decreases rapidly beyond day-3, and hence for day-4 and day-5, the MME products could not bring much improvement over member models. However, up to day-3, the MME products were always better than individual member models.

  4. Multi-scale field investigation of water flow pathways and residence times in mountainous catchments during monsoon rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Troch, P. A.; Lyon, S. W.; Desilets, S.

    2007-05-01

    The "sky islands" of Arizona and New Mexico in the southwestern United States form a unique complex of about 27 mountain ranges whose ecosystems support many perennial and ephemeral streams in an arid climate. Among these sky islands are the Santa Catalina Mountains near Tucson, AZ, with a peak elevation of 9157 ft at Mt. Lemmon. Sabino Canyon Creek is the main stream which runs on the south face of the mountain range. It usually flows from July through April with an average daily flow of approximately 0.28 m3/s (10 cfs). However, flash floods are common both during summer as a result of intense monsoon rains and during spring because of rapid snowmelt. During these events, flow increases drastically, reaching peak flows up to 480 m3/s (15,984 cfs, July 2006). Characterizing water flow pathways and residence times in these complex catchments is important for improving flash flood warning systems, estimating mountain front recharge, managing forest and wild fires, and understanding ecosystem functions. In the summer of 2006, we set up an extensive hydrometrical and hydro- chemical monitoring network in Sabino Canyon Creek, comprising 40 tipping bucket rain gauges (two of which were equipped to automatically collect rainwater samples), 5 automatic surface water level stations (three of which were equipped with auto samplers), and 8 manual soil lysimeters. In addition, several rain and stream water grab samples were collected manually during intensive rain events. Water samples are analyzed for major ions and liquid water isotopic concentration (2H and 18O) in rain, soil, ground and surface water. The data allows for a detailed reconstruction of water flow pathways and residence times at 3 different catchment scales (2 km2, 8 km2, and 91 km2) during the recorded flow events, including the highest monsoon rainfall-runoff event ever recorded in these mountains.

  5. Changes in extreme rainfall over South-East Asia and their link to the monsoon system in 21th century from CMIP5 simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freychet, N.; Chou, C.; Hsu, H.; Wu, C.

    2013-12-01

    The South-East Asia is well known for its recurrent heavy rainfall, either due to typhoons or monsoon systems. In a global warming scenario, extreme rainfall are expected to increase, both in intensity and frequency, because of the increase in air moisture. This increase often comes along with an augmentation of dry days frequency, indicating that the atmospheric water is released less frequently but more intensively. This can be explained by a rise of mid-level troposphere temperature, which increase the required CAPE for convection. Several studies already pointed out this aspect with the CMIP3 results. Here we investigate the change in extreme rainfall (i.e. the 99th percentile of precipitation) over South-East Asia, using the CMIP5 daily results. We compare the mean long term trend (i.e. the mean of 30 years at the end of the 21th century forecast), with the average of 30 years from historical runs. We do not only perform global statistical analysis, but we mainly look at the spatial pattern of changes, along with the modification of the monsoon system in this region. We also investigate the seasonal and monthly signal of changes. This study focus on rainfall over lands only, because of their possible social and economic impacts. The results show first a wild range between models regarding their sensitivity to the global warming. In the mean, they all show an increase in extreme rainfall. But the range of the change in intensity goes from 0 to 50 percent (increase), which point out great uncertainties. In all the models, the extreme rainfall increase much faster than the average precipitation. This increase is weaker during winter (about 10%) and stronger during summer (30%), characterizing an intensification in the monsoon system. This also means that the inter-seasonal signal should increase by the end of the century. The monsoon is not affected uniformly. We observe intra-seasonal variation, with enhance or decrease in winds velocities, and also differences

  6. Environmental status of groundwater affected by chromite ore processing residue (COPR) dumpsites during pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matern, Katrin; Weigand, Harald; Singh, Abhas; Mansfeldt, Tim

    2017-02-01

    Chromite ore processing residue (COPR) is generated by the roasting of chromite ores for the extraction of chromium. Leaching of carcinogenic hexavalent chromium (Cr(VI)) from COPR dumpsites and contamination of groundwater is a key environmental risk. The objective of the study was to evaluate Cr(VI) contamination in groundwater in the vicinity of three COPR disposal sites in Uttar Pradesh, India, in the pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons. Groundwater samples (n = 57 pre-monsoon, n = 70 monsoon) were taken in 2014 and analyzed for Cr(VI) and relevant hydrochemical parameters. The site-specific ranges of Cr(VI) concentrations in groundwater were <0.005 to 34.8 mg L(-1) (Rania), <0.005 to 115 mg L(-1) (Chhiwali), and <0.005 to 2.0 mg L(-1) (Godhrauli). Maximum levels of Cr(VI) were found close to the COPR dumpsites and significantly exceeded safe drinking water limits (0.05 mg L(-1)). No significant dependence of Cr(VI) concentration on monsoons was observed.

  7. The effect of regional changes in anthropogenic aerosols on rainfall of the East Asian Summer Monsoon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Guo

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available The response of East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM precipitation to long term changes in regional anthropogenic aerosols (sulphate and black carbon is explored in an atmospheric general circulation model, the atmospheric component of the UK High-Resolution Global Environment Model v1.2 (HiGAM. Separately, sulphur dioxide (SO2 and black carbon (BC emissions in 1950 and 2000 over East Asia are used to drive model simulations, while emissions are kept constant at year 2000 level outside this region. The response of the EASM is examined by comparing simulations driven by aerosol emissions representative of 1950 and 2000. The aerosol radiative effects are also determined using an off-line radiative transfer model. During June, July and August, the EASM was not significantly changed as either SO2 or BC emissions increased from 1950 to 2000 levels. However, in September, precipitation is significantly decreased by 26.4% for sulphate aerosol and 14.6% for black carbon when emissions are at the 2000 level. Over 80% of the decrease is attributed to changes in convective precipitation. The cooler land surface temperature over China in September (0.8 °C for sulphate and 0.5 °C for black carbon due to increased aerosols reduces the surface thermal contrast that supports the EASM circulation. However, mechanisms causing the surface temperature decrease in September are different between sulphate and BC experiments. In the sulphate experiment, the sulphate direct and the 1st indirect radiative effects contribute to the surface cooling. In the BC experiment, the BC direct effect is the main driver of the surface cooling, however, a decrease in low cloud cover due to the increased heating by BC absorption partially counteracts the direct effect. This results in a weaker land surface temperature response to BC changes than to sulphate changes. The resulting precipitation response is also weaker, and the responses of the monsoon circulation

  8. Summer monsoon rainfall variability over North East regions of India and its association with Eurasian snow, Atlantic Sea Surface temperature and Arctic Oscillation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prabhu, Amita; Oh, Jaiho; Kim, In-won; Kripalani, R. H.; Mitra, A. K.; Pandithurai, G.

    2016-11-01

    This observational study during the 29-year period from 1979 to 2007 evaluates the potential role of Eurasian snow in modulating the North East-Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall with a lead time of almost 6 months. This link is manifested by the changes in high-latitude atmospheric winter snow variability over Eurasia associated with Arctic Oscillation (AO). Excessive wintertime Eurasian snow leads to an anomalous cooling of the overlying atmosphere and is associated with the negative mode of AO, inducing a meridional wave-train descending over the tropical north Atlantic and is associated with cooling of this region. Once the cold anomalies are established over the tropical Atlantic, it persists up to the following summer leading to an anomalous zonal wave-train further inducing a descending branch over NE-India resulting in weak summer monsoon rainfall.

  9. Simulation of the variability and extremes of daily rainfall during the Indian summer monsoon for present and future times in a global time-slice experiment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    May, W. [Danish Meteorological Institute, Lyngbyvej 100, 2100 Copenhagen (Denmark)

    2004-03-01

    In this study the simulation of the variability and extremes of daily rainfall during the Indian summer monsoon for the present-day and the future climate is investigated. This is done on the basis of a global time-slice experiment (TSL) with the ECHAM4 atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) at a high horizontal resolution of T106. The first time-slice (period: 1970-1999) represents the present-day climate and the second (2060-2089) the future climate. Moreover, observational rainfall data from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP, 1997-2002) and rainfall data from the ECMWF re-analysis (ERA, 1958-2001) are considered. ERA reveals serious deficiencies in its representation of the variability and extremes of daily rainfall during the Indian summer monsoon. These are mainly a severe overestimation of the frequency of wet days over the oceans and in the Himalayas, where also the rainfall intensity is overestimated. Further, ERA shows unrealistically heavy rainfall events over the tropical Indian Ocean. The ECHAM4 atmospheric GCM at a horizontal resolution of T106, on the other hand, simulates the variability and extremes of daily rainfall in good agreement with the observations. The only marked deficiencies are an underestimation of the rainfall intensity on the west coast of the Indian peninsula and in Bangladesh, an overestimation over the tropical Indian Ocean, due to an erroneous northwestward extension of the tropical convergence zone, and an overestimation of the frequency of wet days in Tibet. Further, heavy rainfall events are relatively strong in the centre of the Indian peninsula. For the future, TSL predicts large increases in the rainfall intensity over the tropical Indian Ocean as well as in northern Pakistan and northwest India, but decreases in southern Pakistan, in the centre of the Indian peninsula, and over the western part of the Bay of Bengal. The frequency of wet days is markedly increased over the tropical Indian Ocean and

  10. The spatio-temporal structures and role of low- and high-frequency intraseasonal modes in Indian Summer monsoon rainfall observed in TRMM data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karmakar, Nirupam; Chakraborty, Arindam; Nanjundiah, Ravi S.

    2016-05-01

    This study uses precipitation estimates from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission to estimate the intensity and examine the spatiotemporal patterns in the modes found in intraseasonal timescale over the Indian monsoon region during boreal summer. Here, using multichannel singular spectrum analysis, two dominant modes of oscillations are found in the intraseasonal timescale with periodicity of 10-20-days and 20-60-days, respectively. 20-60-days mode shows northward propagation from the equatorial Indian Ocean linked with the eastward propagating modes of convective systems over the tropics. 10-20-days mode shows very complex structure with a northwestward propagating anomaly pattern emanating from the Indonesian coast moving towards central India. This pattern is found to have a possible interaction with a structure emerging from higher latitudes propagating southeastwards. The two intraseasonal modes contribute comparable amount to the total rainfall variability. The intensity of the 20-60-days (10-20-days) mode show significantly strong inverse (direct) relationship with all- India June-September rainfall and both the modes exhibit profound variability in their intensity in interannual scale. This study also establishes that the probability of getting good amount of rainfall (no rainfall) over central India increases significantly if the two intraseasonal modes exhibit positive (negative) anomalies over the region. Relation between the ISO intensities and sea surface temperature is also discussed. This study points towards the fact that the knowledge of ISO phases can increase the skill in the probabilistic forecasting of rainfall over India.

  11. Evaluation of soil moisture data products over Indian region and analysis of spatio-temporal characteristics with respect to monsoon rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sathyanadh, Anusha; Karipot, Anandakumar; Ranalkar, Manish; Prabhakaran, Thara

    2016-11-01

    Soil moisture (SM) is an essential climate variable of greater relevance in the monsoon scenario, hence validation and understanding of its spatio-temporal variability over the Indian region is of high significance. In the present study, five SM products are evaluated against in situ SM measurements conducted by India Meteorological Department and the selected data product is used for spatio-temporal characterization of SM in relation to monsoon rainfall. The data products evaluated are: European Space Agency's merged satellite SM, Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) Land SM, ECMWF's ERA interim SM, Climate Forecast System Reanalysis SM, and Global Land Data Assimilation System Noah Land Surface Model SM. Comparisons show that seasonal SM patterns in all products generally follow the characteristics of rainfall, even though there are certain differences in details. The statistical estimates indicate fairly good agreement between in situ and the five products, with some variations among them and over the homogeneous rainfall regions. On comparison, MERRA SM is found appropriate for further analyses on spatio-temporal characteristics, which are then carried out with the 20 year (1993-2012) SM data. Stability analyses revealed SM patterns indicative of relative SM variability as well as persistence. The spatial stability analysis depicts dry and wet patterns and their seasonal variations over different geographical locations in relation to all India spatial average. Large temporal variations are found over central, western and northern Indian regions caused by large intraseasonal variability in rainfall. In brief, intraseasonal and interannual soil moisture variations broadly follow the rainfall pattern, with long-term influences attributed to SM memory effects. The soil moisture persistence and dominant scales of variability are explored with autocorrelation and wavelet transform techniques. Seasonal persistence is large over

  12. Flavoring components of raw monsooned arabica coffee and their changes during radiation processing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Variyar, Prasad S; Ahmad, Rasheed; Bhat, Rajeev; Niyas, Zareena; Sharma, Arun

    2003-12-31

    Volatile aroma principles, nonvolatile taste constituents (caffeine and chlorogenic and caffeic acids), and glycosidically bound aroma compounds of monsooned and nonmonsooned raw arabica coffee were analyzed using gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS) and high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC). Among the most potent odor active constituents known to contribute to the aroma of the green beans, 3-isopropyl-2-methoxypyrazine, 3-isobutyl-2-methoxypyrazine, 4-vinylguaiacol, beta-damascenone, (E)-2-nonenal, trans,trans-2,4-decadienal, phenylacetaldehyde, and 3-methylbutyric acid were detected by GC-MS in both samples. A decrease in content of methoxypyrazines and an increase in 4-vinylguaiacol and isoeugenol resulted in a dominant spicy note of monsooned coffee. These phenolic compounds exist partly as their glycosides, and their release from the bound precursors during monsooning accounted for their higher content in monsooned coffee. A considerable decrease in astringent chlorogenic acid as a consequence of hydrolysis to bitter caffeic acid was noted in monsooned coffee. Radiation processing of nonmonsooned beans at a dose of 5 kGy resulted in an increased rate of monsooning. At this dose a quantitative increase in most of the aroma active components could be observed in all samples studied. Hydrolysis of chlorogenic acid to caffeic acid was noted in radiation-processed monsooned coffee beans irrespective of whether the treatment was carried out before or after monsooning. These changes were, however, not observed in irradiated, nonmonsooned coffee beans, suggesting an enzymatic rather than a radiolytic cleavage of chlorogenic acid. A rationale behind the mechanism of monsooning and radiation-induced enhancement of the monsooning process is discussed.

  13. Development of an artificial neural network based multi-model ensemble to estimate the northeast monsoon rainfall over south peninsular India: an application of extreme learning machine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Acharya, Nachiketa; Shrivastava, Nitin Anand; Panigrahi, B. K.; Mohanty, U. C.

    2014-09-01

    The south peninsular part of India gets maximum amount of rainfall during the northeast monsoon (NEM) season [October to November (OND)] which is the primary source of water for the agricultural activities in this region. A nonlinear method viz., Extreme learning machine (ELM) has been employed on general circulation model (GCM) products to make the multi-model ensemble (MME) based estimation of NEM rainfall (NEMR). The ELM is basically is an improved learning algorithm for the single feed-forward neural network (SLFN) architecture. The 27 year (1982-2008) lead-1 (using initial conditions of September for forecasting the mean rainfall of OND) hindcast runs (1982-2008) from seven GCM has been used to make MME. The improvement of the proposed method with respect to other regular MME (simple arithmetic mean of GCMs (EM) and singular value decomposition based multiple linear regressions based MME) has been assessed through several skill metrics like Spread distribution, multiplicative bias, prediction errors, the yield of prediction, Pearson's and Kendal's correlation coefficient and Wilmort's index of agreement. The efficiency of ELM estimated rainfall is established by all the stated skill scores. The performance of ELM in extreme NEMR years, out of which 4 years are characterized by deficit rainfall and 5 years are identified as excess, is also examined. It is found that the ELM could expeditiously capture these extremes reasonably well as compared to the other MME approaches.

  14. Investigation of dominant hydrological processes in a tropical catchment in a monsoonal climate via the downward approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montanari, L.; Sivapalan, M.; Montanari, A.

    2006-10-01

    This study explores the dominant processes that may be responsible for the observed streamflow response in Seventeen Mile Creek, a tropical catchment located in a monsoonal climate in Northern Territory, Australia. The hydrology of this vast region of Australia is poorly understood due to the low level of information and gauging that are available. Any insights that can be gained from the few well gauged catchments that do exist can be valuable for predictions and water resource assessments in other poorly gauged or ungauged catchments in the region. To this end, the available rainfall and runoff data from Seventeen Mile Creek catchment are analyzed through the systematic and progressive development and testing of rainfall-runoff models of increasing complexity, by following the "downward" or "top-down" approach. This procedure resulted in a multiple bucket model (4 buckets in parallel). Modelling results suggest that the catchment's soils and the landscape in general have a high storage capacity, generating a significant fraction of delayed runoff, whereas saturation excess overland flow occurs only after heavy rainfall events. The sensitivity analyses carried out with the model with regard to soil depth and temporal rainfall variability revealed that total runoff from the catchment is more sensitive to rainfall variations than to soil depth variations, whereas the partitioning into individual components of runoff appears to be more influenced by soil depth variations. The catchment exhibits considerable inter-annual variability in runoff volumes and the greatest determinant of this variability turns out to be the seasonality of the climate, the timing of the wet season, and temporal patterns of the rainfall. The water balance is also affected by the underlying geology, nature of the soils and the landforms, and the type, density and dynamics of vegetation, although information pertaining to these is lacking.

  15. Investigation of dominant hydrological processes in a tropical catchment in a monsoonal climate via the downward approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Montanari

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available This study explores the dominant processes that may be responsible for the observed streamflow response in Seventeen Mile Creek, a tropical catchment located in a monsoonal climate in Northern Territory, Australia. The hydrology of this vast region of Australia is poorly understood due to the low level of information and gauging that are available. Any insights that can be gained from the few well gauged catchments that do exist can be valuable for predictions and water resource assessments in other poorly gauged or ungauged catchments in the region. To this end, the available rainfall and runoff data from Seventeen Mile Creek catchment are analyzed through the systematic and progressive development and testing of rainfall-runoff models of increasing complexity, by following the "downward" or "top-down" approach. This procedure resulted in a multiple bucket model (4 buckets in parallel. Modelling results suggest that the catchment's soils and the landscape in general have a high storage capacity, generating a significant fraction of delayed runoff, whereas saturation excess overland flow occurs only after heavy rainfall events. The sensitivity analyses carried out with the model with regard to soil depth and temporal rainfall variability revealed that total runoff from the catchment is more sensitive to rainfall variations than to soil depth variations, whereas the partitioning into individual components of runoff appears to be more influenced by soil depth variations. The catchment exhibits considerable inter-annual variability in runoff volumes and the greatest determinant of this variability turns out to be the seasonality of the climate, the timing of the wet season, and temporal patterns of the rainfall. The water balance is also affected by the underlying geology, nature of the soils and the landforms, and the type, density and dynamics of vegetation, although information pertaining to these is lacking.

  16. An Objective Approach for Prediction of Daily Summer Monsoon Rainfall over Orissa (India) due to Interaction of Mesoscale and Large-scale Synoptic Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohapatra, M.; Mohanty, U. C.

    2007-09-01

    Orissa State, a meteorological subdivision of India, lies on the east coast of India close to north Bay of Bengal and to the south of the normal position of the monsoon trough. The monsoon disturbances such as depressions and cyclonic storms mostly develop to the north of 15° N over the Bay of Bengal and move along the monsoon trough. As Orissa lies in the southwest sector of such disturbances, it experiences very heavy rainfall due to the interaction of these systems with mesoscale convection sometimes leading to flood. The orography due to the Eastern Ghat and other hill peaks in Orissa and environs play a significant role in this interaction. The objective of this study is to develop an objective statistical model to predict the occurrence and quantity of precipitation during the next 24 hours over specific locations of Orissa, due to monsoon disturbances over north Bay and adjoining west central Bay of Bengal based on observations to up 0300 UTC of the day. A probability of precipitation (PoP) model has been developed by applying forward stepwise regression with available surface and upper air meteorological parameters observed in and around Orissa in association with monsoon disturbances during the summer monsoon season (June-September). The PoP forecast has been converted into the deterministic occurrence/non-occurrence of precipitation forecast using the critical value of PoP. The parameters selected through stepwise regression have been considered to develop quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) model using multiple discriminant analysis (MDA) for categorical prediction of precipitation in different ranges such as 0.1 10, 11 25, 26 50, 51 100 and >100 mm if the occurrence of precipitation is predicted by PoP model. All the above models have been developed based on data of summer monsoon seasons of 1980 1994, and data during 1995 1998 have been used for testing the skill of the models. Considering six representative stations for six homogeneous regions

  17. Retrospective seasonal prediction of summer monsoon rainfall over West Central and Peninsular India in the past 142 years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Juan; Wang, Bin; Yang, Young-Min

    2016-06-01

    Prediction of Indian summer (June-September) rainfall on regional scales remains an open issue. The operational predictions of West Central Indian summer rainfall (WCI-R) and Peninsular Indian summer rainfall (PI-R) made by the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) had no skills during 2004-2012. This motivates the present study aiming at better understanding the predictability sources and physical processes governing summer rainfall variability over these two regions. Analysis of 133 year data reveal that although the lower boundary forcing that associated with enhanced WCI-R and PI-R featured a similar developing La-Nina and "east high west low" sea-level pressure (SLP) dipole pattern across the Indo-Pacific, the anomalous high sea surface temperature (SST) over the northern Indian Ocean and weak low pressure over northern Asia tended to enhance PI-R but reduce WCI-R. Based on our understanding of physical linkages with the predictands, we selected four and two causative predictors for predictions of the WCI-R and PI-R, respectively. The intensified summer WCI-R is preceded by (a) Indian Ocean zonal dipole-like SST tendency (west-warming and east-cooling), (b) tropical Pacific zonal dipole SST tendency (west-warming and east-cooling), (c) central Pacific meridional dipole SST tendency (north-cooling and south-warming), and (d) decreasing SLP tendency over northern Asia in the previous season. The enhanced PI-R was lead by the central-eastern Pacific cooling and 2-m temperature cooling tendency east of Lake Balkhash in the previous seasons. These causative processes linking the predictors and WCI-R and PI-R are supported by ensemble numerical experiments using a coupled climate model. For the period of 1871-2012, the physics-based empirical (P-E) prediction models built on these predictors result in cross-validated forecast temporal correlation coefficient skills of 0.55 and 0.47 for WCI-R and PI-R, respectively. The independent forecast skill is significantly

  18. Investigating the impact of land-use land-cover change on Indian summer monsoon daily rainfall and temperature during 1951–2005 using a regional climate model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Halder

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Daily moderate rainfall events, that constitute a major portion of seasonal summer monsoon rainfall over central India, have decreased significantly during the period 1951 till 2005. Mean and extreme near surface daily temperature during the monsoon season have also increased by a maximum of 1–1.5 °C. Using simulations made with a high-resolution regional climate model (RegCM4 with prescribed vegetation cover of 1950 and 2005, it is demonstrated that part of the above observed changes in moderate rainfall events and temperature have been caused by land-use land-cover change (LULCC which is mostly anthropogenic. Model simulations show that the increase in seasonal mean and extreme temperature over central India coincides with the region of decreased (increased forest (crop cover. The results also show that land-use land-cover alone causes warming in the extremes of daily mean and maximum temperatures by maximum of 1–1.2 °C, that is comparable with the observed increasing trend in the extremes. Decrease (increase in forest (crop cover reduces the evapotranspiration over land and large-scale convective instability, apart from decreasing the moisture convergence. These factors act together not only in reducing the moderate rainfall events over central India but also the amount of rainfall in that category, significantly. This is the most interesting result of this study. Additionally, the model simulations are repeated by removing the warming trend in sea surface temperatures. As a result, there is enhanced warming at the surface and decrease in moderate rainfall events over central India. Results from the additional experiments corroborate our initial findings and confirm the contribution of land-use land-cover change on increase in daily mean and extreme temperature and decrease in moderate rainfall events. This study not only demonstrates the important implications of LULCC over India, but also shows the necessity for inclusion of projected

  19. A time fractional model to represent rainfall process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jacques GOLDER

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with a stochastic representation of the rainfall process. The analysis of a rainfall time series shows that cumulative representation of a rainfall time series can be modeled as a non-Gaussian random walk with a log-normal jump distribution and a time-waiting distribution following a tempered α-stable probability law. Based on the random walk model, a fractional Fokker-Planck equation (FFPE with tempered α-stable waiting times was obtained. Through the comparison of observed data and simulated results from the random walk model and FFPE model with tempered α-stable waiting times, it can be concluded that the behavior of the rainfall process is globally reproduced, and the FFPE model with tempered α-stable waiting times is more efficient in reproducing the observed behavior.

  20. Simulation of radar rainfall errors and their propagation into rainfall-runoff processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aghakouchak, A.; Habib, E.

    2008-05-01

    Radar rainfall data compared with rain gauge measurements provide higher spatial and temporal resolution. However, radar data obtained form reflectivity patterns are subject to various errors such as errors in Z-R relationship, vertical profile of reflectivity, spatial and temporal sampling, etc. Characterization of such uncertainties in radar data and their effects on hydrologic simulations (e.g., streamflow estimation) is a challenging issue. This study aims to analyze radar rainfall error characteristics empirically to gain information on prosperities of random error representativeness and its temporal and spatial dependency. To empirically analyze error characteristics, high resolution and accurate rain gauge measurements are required. The Goodwin Creek watershed located in the north part of Mississippi is selected for this study due to availability of a dense rain gauge network. A total of 30 rain gauge measurement stations within Goodwin Creak watershed and the NWS Level II radar reflectivity data obtained from the WSR-88dD Memphis radar station with temporal resolution of 5min and spatial resolution of 1 km2 are used in this study. Radar data and rain gauge measurements comparisons are used to estimate overall bias, and statistical characteristics and spatio-temporal dependency of radar rainfall error fields. This information is then used to simulate realizations of radar error patterns with multiple correlated variables using Monte Calro method and the Cholesky decomposition. The generated error fields are then imposed on radar rainfall fields to obtain statistical realizations of input rainfall fields. Each simulated realization is then fed as input to a distributed physically based hydrological model resulting in an ensemble of predicted runoff hydrographs. The study analyzes the propagation of radar errors on the simulation of different rainfall-runoff processes such as streamflow, soil moisture, infiltration, and over-land flooding.

  1. A Modeling Study of Surface Rainfall Processes Associated with a Torrential Rainfall Event over Hubei, China, during July 2007

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHOU Yushu; CUI Chunguang

    2011-01-01

    The surface rainfall processes associated with the torrential rainfall event over Hubei,China,during July 2007 were investigated using a two-dimensional cloud-resolving model.The model integrated the large-scale vertical velocity and zonal wind data from National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS) for 5 days.The time and model domain mean surface rain rate was used to identify the onset,mature,and decay periods of rainfall.During the onset period,the descending motion data imposed in the lower troposphere led to a large contribution of stratiform rainfall to the model domain mean surface rainfall.The local atmospheric drying and transport of rain from convective regions mainly contributes to the stratiform rainfall.During the mature periods,the ascending motion data integrated into the model was so strong that water vapor convergence was the dominant process for both convective and stratiform rainfall.Both convective and stratiform rainfalls made important contributions to the model domain mean surface rainfall. During the decay period,descending motion data input into the model prevailed,making stratiform rainfall dominant.Stratiform rainfall was mainly caused by the water vapor convergence over raining stratiform regions.

  2. Markov modulated Poisson process models incorporating covariates for rainfall intensity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thayakaran, R; Ramesh, N I

    2013-01-01

    Time series of rainfall bucket tip times at the Beaufort Park station, Bracknell, in the UK are modelled by a class of Markov modulated Poisson processes (MMPP) which may be thought of as a generalization of the Poisson process. Our main focus in this paper is to investigate the effects of including covariate information into the MMPP model framework on statistical properties. In particular, we look at three types of time-varying covariates namely temperature, sea level pressure, and relative humidity that are thought to be affecting the rainfall arrival process. Maximum likelihood estimation is used to obtain the parameter estimates, and likelihood ratio tests are employed in model comparison. Simulated data from the fitted model are used to make statistical inferences about the accumulated rainfall in the discrete time interval. Variability of the daily Poisson arrival rates is studied.

  3. The role of low-frequency intraseasonal oscillations in the anomalous Indian summer monsoon rainfall of 2002

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    S Sajani; S Naseema Beegum; K Krishna Moorthy

    2007-04-01

    We analyze the dynamical features and responsible factors of the low-frequency intraseasonal time scales which influenced the nature of onset, intensity and duration of active/break phases and withdrawal of the monsoon during the anomalous Indian summer monsoon of 2002 – the most severe drought recorded in recent times. During that season, persistent warm sea surface temperature anomalies over the equatorial Indian Ocean played a significant role in modulating the strength of the monsoon Hadley circulation. This in turn affected the onset and intense break spells especially the long break during the peak monsoon month of July. Strong low-frequency intraseasonal modulations with significant impact on the onset and active/break phases occurred in 2002 which were manifested as a good association between low-frequency intraseasonal oscillations and the onset and active/break spells. Further, SST anomalies over the equatorial Indo-Pacific region on low-frequency intraseasonal time scales were found to affect the equatorial eastward and thereby off-equatorial northward propagations of enhanced convection over the Indian region. These propagations in turn modulated the active/break cycle deciding the consequent severity of the 2002 drought.

  4. Non-stationary and non-linear influence of ENSO and Indian Ocean Dipole on the variability of Indian monsoon rainfall and extreme rain events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krishnaswamy, Jagdish; Vaidyanathan, Srinivas; Rajagopalan, Balaji; Bonell, Mike; Sankaran, Mahesh; Bhalla, R. S.; Badiger, Shrinivas

    2015-07-01

    The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are widely recognized as major drivers of inter-annual variability of the Indian monsoon (IM) and extreme rainfall events (EREs). We assess the time-varying strength and non-linearity of these linkages using dynamic linear regression and Generalized Additive Models. Our results suggest that IOD has evolved independently of ENSO, with its influence on IM and EREs strengthening in recent decades when compared to ENSO, whose relationship with IM seems to be weakening and more uncertain. A unit change in IOD currently has a proportionately greater impact on IM. ENSO positively influences EREs only below a threshold of 100 mm day-1. Furthermore, there is a non-linear and positive relationship between IOD and IM totals and the frequency of EREs (>100 mm day-1). Improvements in modeling this complex system can enhance the forecasting accuracy of the IM and EREs.

  5. Atmospheric circulation processes contributing to a multidecadal variation in reconstructed and modeled Indian monsoon precipitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Qianru; Hu, Qi

    2015-01-01

    analysis of the recently reconstructed gridded May-September total precipitation in the Indian monsoon region for the past half millennium discloses significant variations at multidecadal timescales. Meanwhile, paleo-climate modeling outputs from the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model 4.0 show similar multidecadal variations in the monsoon precipitation. One of those variations at the frequency of 40-50 years per cycle is examined in this study. Major results show that this variation is a product of the processes in that the meridional gradient of the atmospheric enthalpy is strengthened by radiation loss in the high-latitude and polar region. Driven by this gradient and associated baroclinicity in the atmosphere, more heat/energy is generated in the tropical and subtropical (monsoon) region and transported poleward. This transport relaxes the meridional enthalpy gradient and, subsequently, the need for heat production in the monsoon region. The multidecadal timescale of these processes results from atmospheric circulation-radiation interactions and the inefficiency in generation of kinetic energy from the potential energy in the atmosphere to drive the eddies that transport heat poleward. This inefficiency creates a time delay between the meridional gradient of the enthalpy and the poleward transport. The monsoon precipitation variation lags that in the meridional gradient of enthalpy but leads that of the poleward heat transport. This phase relationship, and underlining chasing process by the transport of heat to the need for it driven by the meridional enthalpy gradient, sustains this multidecadal variation. This mechanism suggests that atmospheric circulation processes can contribute to multidecadal timescale variations. Interactions of these processes with other forcing, such as sea surface temperature or solar irradiance anomalies, can result in resonant or suppressed variations in the Indian monsoon precipitation.

  6. Weakening of Indian Summer Monsoon in Recent Decades

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WU Bingyi

    2005-01-01

    The analysis of 43 years of NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data and station observations reveals the connections between tropospheric temperature variations and the weakening of the Indian summer monsoon circulation. The Indian summer monsoon variation is strongly linked to tropospheric temperature over East Asia, showing significant positive correlations of mean tropospheric temperature with all-Indian summer rainfall and the monsoon circulation intensity. The result shows that Indian summer monsoon circulation underwent two weakening processes in recent decades. The first occurred in circa the mid-1960s, and the other occurred in circa the late 1970s. The finding indicates that the mean tropospheric temperature may play a crucial role in the weakening of the Indian summer monsoon intensity via changing land-sea thermal contrast. The role of the tropospheric temperature contrast between East Asia and the tropical area from the eastern Indian Ocean to the tropical western Pacific is to weaken the Indian summer monsoon circulation.

  7. Torrential Rainfall Responses to Ice Microphysical Processes during Pre-Summer Heavy Rainfall over Southern China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SHEN Xinyong; LIU Jia; Xiaofan LI

    2012-01-01

    In this study,the effects of key ice microphysical processes on the pre-summer heavy rainfall over southern China during 3-8 June 2008 were investigated.A series of two-dimensional sensitivity cloud-resolving model simulations were forced with zonally uniform vertical velocity,zonal wind,horizontal temperature,and water vapor advection data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS).The effects of key ice microphysical processes on the responses of rainfall to large-scale forcing were analyzed by comparing two sensitivity experiments with a control experiment.In one sensitivity experiment,ice crystal radius,associated with depositional growth of snow from cloud ice,was reduced from 100 μm in the control experiment to 50 μm,and in the other sensitivity experiment the efficiency of the growth of graupel from the accretion of snow was reduced to 50% from 100% in the control experiment.The results show that the domain-mean rainfall responses to these ice microphysical processes are stronger during the decay phase than during the onset and mature phases.During the decay phase,the increased mean rain rate resulting from the decrease in ice crystal radius is associated with the enhanced mean local atmospheric drying,the increased mean local hydrometeor loss,and the suppressed mean water vapor divergence.The increased mean rain rate caused by the reduction in accretion efficiency is related to the reduced mean water vapor divergence and the enhanced mean local hydrometeor loss.

  8. COMPOSITE ANALYSIS OF SUMMER MONSOON ONSET PROCESS OVER SOUTH CHINA SEA

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    徐海明; 何金海; 周兵

    2001-01-01

    Based on the method of composite analysis, the onset process and preceding signs of summer monsoon over the South China Sea (SCS) is investigated. The result indicates that convection activities appear first over the Indo-China Peninsula prior to the onset of the monsoon, then around the Philippines just at the point of onset, implying that the convection activities around the Philippines serve as one of the reasons leading to the SCS monsoon onset. Before the SCS monsoon onset, the equatorial westerly over the Indian Ocean (75°E ~ 95°E ) experiences noticeable enhancement and plays an important role on the SCS monsoon onset. It propagates eastward rapidly and causes the establishment and strengthening of equatorial westerly in the southern SCS, on the one hand, it results in the migration southward of the westerly on south side of the south-China stationary front by means of shift northeastward of the westerly and convection over the Bay of Bengal, on the other. Further study also shows that the intensification of equatorial westerly in the Indian Ocean (75°E ~ 95°E) and the southern SCS is closely related to the reinforcement of the Southern-Hemisphere Mascarene high and Australian high, and cross-equatorial flow northward around Somali, at 85°E and 105°E, respectively.

  9. Statistical Inference for Point Process Models of Rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, James A.; Karr, Alan F.

    1985-01-01

    In this paper we develop maximum likelihood procedures for parameter estimation and model selection that apply to a large class of point process models that have been used to model rainfall occurrences, including Cox processes, Neyman-Scott processes, and renewal processes. The statistical inference procedures are based on the stochastic intensity λ(t) = lims→0,s>0 (1/s)E[N(t + s) - N(t)|N(u), u process is shown to have a simple expression in terms of the stochastic intensity. The main result of this paper is a recursive procedure for computing stochastic intensities; the procedure is applicable to a broad class of point process models, including renewal Cox process with Markovian intensity processes and an important class of Neyman-Scott processes. The model selection procedure we propose, which is based on likelihood ratios, allows direct comparison of two classes of point processes to determine which provides a better model for a given data set. The estimation and model selection procedures are applied to two data sets of simulated Cox process arrivals and a data set of daily rainfall occurrences in the Potomac River basin.

  10. Ocean-atmosphere processes driving Indian summer monsoon biases in CFSv2 hindcasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Narapusetty, Balachandrudu; Murtugudde, Raghu; Wang, Hui; Kumar, Arun

    2016-09-01

    This paper analyzes the role of the Indian Ocean (IO) and the atmosphere biases in generating and sustaining large-scale precipitation biases over Central India (CI) during the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) in the climate forecast system version 2 (CFSv2) hindcasts that are produced by initializing the system each month from January 1982 to March 2011. The CFSv2 hindcasts are characterized by a systematic dry monsoon bias over CI that deteriorate with forecast lead-times and coexist with a wet bias in the tropical IO suggesting a large-scale interplay between coupled ocean-atmosphere and land biases. The biases evolving from spring-initialized forecasts are analyzed in detail to understand the evolution of summer biases. The northward migration of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) that typically crosses the equator in the IO sector during April in nature is delayed in the hindcasts when the forecast system is initialized in early spring. Our analyses show that the delay in the ITCZ coexists with wind and SST biases and the associated processes project onto the seasonal evolution of the coupled ocean-atmosphere features. This delay in conjunction with the SST and the wind biases during late spring and early summer contributes to excessive precipitation over the ocean and leading to a deficit in rainfall over CI throughout the summer. Attribution of bias to a specific component in a coupled forecast system is particularly challenging as seemingly independent biases from one component affect the other components or are affected by their feedbacks. In the spring-initialized forecasts, the buildup of deeper thermocline in association with warmer SSTs due to the enhanced Ekman pumping in the southwest IO inhibits the otherwise typical northward propagation of ITCZ in the month of April. Beyond this deficiency in the forecasts, two key ocean-atmosphere coupled mechanisms are identified; one in the Arabian Sea, where a positive windstress curl bias in conjunction

  11. The First Pan-WCRP Workshop on Monsoon Climate Systems: Toward Better Prediction of the Monsoons

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sperber, K R; Yasunari, T

    2005-07-27

    In 2004 the Joint Scientific Committee (JSC) that provides scientific guidance to the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) requested an assessment of (1) WCRP monsoon related activities and (2) the range of available observations and analyses in monsoon regions. The purpose of the assessment was to (a) define the essential elements of a pan-WCRP monsoon modeling strategy, (b) identify the procedures for producing this strategy, and (c) promote improvements in monsoon observations and analyses with a view toward their adequacy, and addressing any undue redundancy or duplication. As such, the WCRP sponsored the ''1st Pan-WCRP Workshop on Monsoon Climate Systems: Toward Better Prediction of the Monsoons'' at the University of California, Irvine, CA, USA from 15-17 June 2005. Experts from the two WCRP programs directly relevant to monsoon studies, the Climate Variability and Predictability Programme (CLIVAR) and the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX), gathered to assess the current understanding of the fundamental physical processes governing monsoon variability and to highlight outstanding problems in simulating the monsoon that can be tackled through enhanced cooperation between CLIVAR and GEWEX. The agenda with links to the presentations can be found at: http://www.clivar.org/organization/aamon/WCRPmonsoonWS/agenda.htm. Scientific motivation for a joint CLIVAR-GEWEX approach to investigating monsoons includes the potential for improved medium-range to seasonal prediction through better simulation of intraseasonal (30-60 day) oscillations (ISO's). ISO's are important for the onset of monsoons, as well as the development of active and break periods of rainfall during the monsoon season. Foreknowledge of the active and break phases of the monsoon is important for crop selection, the determination of planting times and mitigation of potential flooding and short-term drought. With a few exceptions simulations of ISO are

  12. Investigation of Rainfall-Runoff Processes and Soil Moisture Dynamics in Grassland Plots under Simulated Rainfall Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nana Zhao

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available The characteristics of rainfall-runoff are important aspects of hydrological processes. In this study, rainfall-runoff processes and soil moisture dynamics at different soil depths and slope positions of grassland with two different row spacings (5 cm and 10 cm, respectively, referred to as R5 and R10 were analyzed, by means of a solution of rainfall simulation experiments. Bare land was also considered as a comparison. The results showed that the mechanism of runoff generation was mainly excess infiltration overland flow. The surface runoff amount of R5 plot was greater than that of R10, while the interflow amount of R10 was larger than that of R5 plot, although the differences of the subsurface runoff processes between plots R5 and R10 were little. The effects of rainfall intensity on the surface runoff were significant, but not obvious on the interflow and recession curve, which can be described as a simple exponential equation, with a fitting degree of up to 0.854–0.996. The response of soil moisture to rainfall and evapotranspiration was mainly in the 0–20 cm layer, and the response at the 40 cm layer to rainfall was slower and generally occurred after the rainfall stopped. The upper slope generally responded fastest to rainfall, and the foot of the slope was the slowest. The results presented here could provide insights into understanding the surface and subsurface runoff processes and soil moisture dynamics for grasslands in semi-arid regions.

  13. Responses of diatom communities to hydrological processes during rainfall events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Naicheng; Faber, Claas; Ulrich, Uta; Fohrer, Nicola

    2015-04-01

    The importance of diatoms as a tracer of hydrological processes has been recently recognized (Pfister et al. 2009, Pfister et al. 2011, Tauro et al. 2013). However, diatom variations in a short-term scale (e.g., sub-daily) during rainfall events have not been well documented yet. In this study, rainfall event-based diatom samples were taken at the outlet of the Kielstau catchment (50 km2), a lowland catchment in northern Germany. A total of nine rainfall events were caught from May 2013 to April 2014. Non-metric multidimensional scaling (NMDS) revealed that diatom communities of different events were well separated along NMDS axis I and II, indicating a remarkable temporal variation. By correlating water level (a proxy of discharge) and different diatom indices, close relationships were found. For example, species richness, biovolume (μm3), Shannon diversity and moisture index01 (%, classified according to van Dam et al. 1994) were positively related with water level at the beginning phase of the rainfall (i.e. increasing limb of discharge peak). However, in contrast, during the recession limb of the discharge peak, diatom indices showed distinct responses to water level declines in different rainfall events. These preliminary results indicate that diatom indices are highly related to hydrological processes. The next steps will include finding out the possible mechanisms of the above phenomena, and exploring the contributions of abiotic variables (e.g., hydrologic indices, nutrients) to diatom community patterns. Based on this and ongoing studies (Wu et al. unpublished data), we will incorporate diatom data into End Member Mixing Analysis (EMMA) and select the tracer set that is best suited for separation of different runoff components in our study catchment. Keywords: Diatoms, Rainfall event, Non-metric multidimensional scaling, Hydrological process, Indices References: Pfister L, McDonnell JJ, Wrede S, Hlúbiková D, Matgen P, Fenicia F, Ector L, Hoffmann L

  14. Rainfall variability in the Himalayan orogen and its relevance to erosion processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deal, Eric; Favre, Anne-Catherine; Braun, Jean

    2017-05-01

    Rainfall is an important driver of erosion processes. The mean rainfall rate is often used to account for the erosive impact of a particular climate. However, for some erosion processes, erosion rate is a nonlinear function of rainfall, e.g., due to a threshold for erosion. When this is the case, it is important to take into account the full distribution of rainfall, instead of just the mean. In light of this, we have characterized the variability of daily rainfall over the Himalayan orogen using high spatial and temporal resolution rainfall data sets. We find significant variations in rainfall variability over the Himalayan orogen, with increasing rainfall variability to the west and north of the orogen. By taking into account variability of rainfall in addition to mean rainfall rate, we find a pattern of rainfall that, from a geomorphological perspective, is significantly different from mean rainfall rate alone. Using these findings, we argue that short-term rainfall variability may help explain observed short and long-term erosion rates in the Himalayan orogen.

  15. Characteristics, processes, and causes of the spatio-temporal variabilities of the East Asian monsoon system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Ronghui; Chen, Jilong; Wang, Lin; Lin, Zhongda

    2012-09-01

    Recent advances in the study of the characteristics, processes, and causes of spatio-temporal variabilities of the East Asian monsoon (EAM) system are reviewed in this paper. The understanding of the EAM system has improved in many aspects: the basic characteristics of horizontal and vertical structures, the annual cycle of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) system and the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) system, the characteristics of the spatio-temporal variabilities of the EASM system and the EAWM system, and especially the multiple modes of the EAM system and their spatio-temporal variabilities. Some new results have also been achieved in understanding the atmosphere-ocean interaction and atmosphere-land interaction processes that affect the variability of the EAM system. Based on recent studies, the EAM system can be seen as more than a circulation system, it can be viewed as an atmosphere-ocean-land coupled system, namely, the EAM climate system. In addition, further progress has been made in diagnosing the internal physical mechanisms of EAM climate system variability, especially regarding the characteristics and properties of the East Asia-Pacific (EAP) teleconnection over East Asia and the North Pacific, the "Silk Road" teleconnection along the westerly jet stream in the upper troposphere over the Asian continent, and the dynamical effects of quasi-stationary planetary wave activity on EAM system variability. At the end of the paper, some scientific problems regarding understanding the EAM system variability are proposed for further study.

  16. Modeling of the Monthly Rainfall-Runoff Process Through Regressions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Campos-Aranda Daniel Francisco

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available To solve the problems associated with the assessment of water resources of a river, the modeling of the rainfall-runoff process (RRP allows the deduction of runoff missing data and to extend its record, since generally the information available on precipitation is larger. It also enables the estimation of inputs to reservoirs, when their building led to the suppression of the gauging station. The simplest mathematical model that can be set for the RRP is the linear regression or curve on a monthly basis. Such a model is described in detail and is calibrated with the simultaneous record of monthly rainfall and runoff in Ballesmi hydrometric station, which covers 35 years. Since the runoff of this station has an important contribution from the spring discharge, the record is corrected first by removing that contribution. In order to do this a procedure was developed based either on the monthly average regional runoff coefficients or on nearby and similar watershed; in this case the Tancuilín gauging station was used. Both stations belong to the Partial Hydrologic Region No. 26 (Lower Rio Panuco and are located within the state of San Luis Potosi, México. The study performed indicates that the monthly regression model, due to its conceptual approach, faithfully reproduces monthly average runoff volumes and achieves an excellent approximation in relation to the dispersion, proved by calculation of the means and standard deviations.

  17. Post Processing Numerical Weather Prediction Model Rainfall Forecasts for Use in Ensemble Streamflow Forecasting in Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shrestha, D. L.; Robertson, D.; Bennett, J.; Ward, P.; Wang, Q. J.

    2012-12-01

    Through the water information research and development alliance (WIRADA) project, CSIRO is conducting research to improve flood and short-term streamflow forecasting services delivered by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. WIRADA aims to build and test systems to generate ensemble flood and short-term streamflow forecasts with lead times of up to 10 days by integrating rainfall forecasts from Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models and hydrological modelling. Here we present an overview of the latest progress towards developing this system. Rainfall during the forecast period is a major source of uncertainty in streamflow forecasting. Ensemble rainfall forecasts are used in streamflow forecasting to characterise the rainfall uncertainty. In Australia, NWP models provide forecasts of rainfall and other weather conditions for lead times of up to 10 days. However, rainfall forecasts from Australian NWP models are deterministic and often contain systematic errors. We use a simplified Bayesian joint probability (BJP) method to post-process rainfall forecasts from the latest generation of Australian NWP models. The BJP method generates reliable and skilful ensemble rainfall forecasts. The post-processed rainfall ensembles are then used to force a semi-distributed conceptual rainfall runoff model to produce ensemble streamflow forecasts. The performance of the ensemble streamflow forecasts is evaluated on a number of Australian catchments and the benefits of using post processed rainfall forecasts are demonstrated.

  18. Atmospheric processes sustaining a multidecadal variation in reconstructed and model-simulated Indian monsoon precipitation during the past half millennium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Qianru

    Analyses of recently reconstructed and model-simulated Indian May-September precipitation disclose a statistically significant multidecadal variation at the frequency of 40-50 year per cycle during the last half millennium. To understand the mechanism of this variation, we examined the energy and dynamic processes in the atmosphere, and the potential forcings from the sea surface temperature (SST) variations around the globe. Comparisons of paleo-SST and the paleo-precipitation simulations suggest that the SST is not a significant forcing of the multidecadal variation found in the Indian monsoon precipitation. Instead, analyses suggest that atmospheric processes characterized by phase differences between the meridional enthalpy gradient and poleward eddy enthalpy transport are important to sustain this variation. In this phase relationship, the meridional enthalpy gradient is strengthened by radiative loss in high latitudes. Driven by this enlarged gradient and associated changes in baroclinicity in the mid-latitude atmosphere, more energy is generated in the tropical and subtropical (monsoon) regions and transported poleward. The monsoon is strengthened to allow more energy being transported poleward. The increased enthalpy transport, in turn, weakens the meridional enthalpy gradient and, subsequently, softens the demand for energy production in the monsoon region. The monsoon weakens and the transport decreases. The variation in monsoon precipitation lags that in the meridional enthalpy gradient, but leads that in the poleward heat transport. This phase relationship and underlining chasing process by the heat transport to the gradient sustain this variation at the multidecadal timescale. This mechanism suggests that atmospheric circulation processes can contribute to multidecadal timescale variations in the Indian monsoon precipitation.

  19. Contribution of cloud condensate to surface rainfall process

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHOU Yushu; CUI Xiaopeng; LI Xiaofan

    2006-01-01

    Contribution of cloud condensate to surface rainfall processes is investigated in a life span of tropical convection based on hourly data from a two-dimensional cloud resolving simulation. The model is forced by the large-scale vertical velocity, zonal wind and horizontal advections obtained from tropical ocean global atmosphere coupled ocean-atmosphere response experiment (TOGA COARE). The results show that during the genesis, development, and decay of tropical convection, calculations with water vapor overestimate surface rain rate, and cloud condensate plays an important role in correcting overestimation in surface rain rates. The analysis is carried out in deep convective clouds and anvil clouds during the development of tropical convection. The surface rain rates calculated with water vapor in deep convective clouds and anvil clouds have similar magnitudes, the large surface rain rate appears in deep convective clouds due to the consumption of water hydrorneteors whereas the small surface rain rate occurs in anvil clouds because of the gain of ice hydrometeors. Further analysis of the grid data shows that the surface rain rates calculated with water vapor and with cloud condensate are negatively correlated with the correlation coefficient of - 0.85, and the surface rain rate calculated with cloud condensate is mainly contributed to the water hydrometeors in the tropical deep convective regime.

  20. Modeling rainfall-runoff processes using smoothed particle hydrodynamics with mass-varied particles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Tsang-Jung; Chang, Yu-Sheng; Chang, Kao-Hua

    2016-12-01

    In this study, a novel treatment of adopting mass-varied particles in smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) is proposed to solve the shallow water equations (SWEs) and model the rainfall-runoff process. Since SWEs have depth-averaged or cross-section-averaged features, there is no sufficient dimension to add rainfall particles. Thus, SPH-SWE methods have focused on modeling discharge flows in open channels or floodplains without rainfall. With the proposed treatment, the application of SPH-SWEs can be extended to rainfall-runoff processes in watersheds. First, the numerical procedures associated with using mass-varied particles in SPH-SWEs are introduced and derived. Then, numerical validations are conducted for three benchmark problems, including uniform rainfall over a 1D flat sloping channel, nonuniform rain falling over a 1D three-slope channel with different rainfall durations, and uniform rainfall over a 2D plot with complex topography. The simulated results indicate that the proposed treatment can avoid the necessity of a source term function of mass variation, and no additional particles are needed for the increase of mass. Rainfall-runoff processes can be well captured in the presence of hydraulic jumps, dry/wet bed flows, and supercritical/subcritical/transcritical flows. The proposed treatment using mass-varied particles was proven robust and reliable for modeling rainfall-runoff processes. It can provide a new alternative for investigating practical hydrological problems.

  1. Workshop on Monsoon Climate Systems: Toward Better Prediction of the Monsoon

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sperber, K R; Yasunari, T

    2005-12-20

    The Earth's monsoon systems are the life-blood of more than two-thirds of the world's population through the rainfall they provide to the mainly agrarian societies they influence. More than 60 experts gathered to assess the current understanding of monsoon variability and to highlight outstanding problems simulating the monsoon.

  2. DOMINANT PHYSICAL PROCESSES ASSOCIATED WITH PHASE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN SURFACE RAINFALL AND CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xiaofan LI

    2009-01-01

    A lag correlation analysis is conducted with a 21-day TOGA COARE cloud-resolving model simulation data to identify the phase relation between surface rainfall and convective available potential energy (CAPE) and associated physical processes. The analysis shows that the maximum negative lag correlations between the model domain mean CAPE and rainfall occurs around lag hour 6. The minimum mean CAPE lags mean and convective rainfall through the vapor condensation and depositions, water vapor convergence, and heat divergence whereas it lags stratiform rainfall via the transport of hydrometeor concentration from convective regions to raining stratiform regions, vapor condensation and depositions, water vapor storage, and heat divergence over raining stratiform regions.

  3. Long-range forecast of all India summer monsoon rainfall using adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system: skill comparison with CFSv2 model simulation and real-time forecast for the year 2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaudhuri, S.; Das, D.; Goswami, S.; Das, S. K.

    2016-02-01

    All India summer monsoon rainfall (AISMR) characteristics play a vital role for the policy planning and national economy of the country. In view of the significant impact of monsoon system on regional as well as global climate systems, accurate prediction of summer monsoon rainfall has become a challenge. The objective of this study is to develop an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) for long range forecast of AISMR. The NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data of temperature, zonal and meridional wind at different pressure levels have been taken to construct the input matrix of ANFIS. The membership of the input parameters for AISMR as high, medium or low is estimated with trapezoidal membership function. The fuzzified standardized input parameters and the de-fuzzified target output are trained with artificial neural network models. The forecast of AISMR with ANFIS is compared with non-hybrid multi-layer perceptron model (MLP), radial basis functions network (RBFN) and multiple linear regression (MLR) models. The forecast error analyses of the models reveal that ANFIS provides the best forecast of AISMR with minimum prediction error of 0.076, whereas the errors with MLP, RBFN and MLR models are 0.22, 0.18 and 0.73 respectively. During validation with observations, ANFIS shows its potency over the said comparative models. Performance of the ANFIS model is verified through different statistical skill scores, which also confirms the aptitude of ANFIS in forecasting AISMR. The forecast skill of ANFIS is also observed to be better than Climate Forecast System version 2. The real-time forecast with ANFIS shows possibility of deficit (65-75 cm) AISMR in the year 2015.

  4. Long-range forecast of all India summer monsoon rainfall using adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system: skill comparison with CFSv2 model simulation and real-time forecast for the year 2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaudhuri, S.; Das, D.; Goswami, S.; Das, S. K.

    2016-11-01

    All India summer monsoon rainfall (AISMR) characteristics play a vital role for the policy planning and national economy of the country. In view of the significant impact of monsoon system on regional as well as global climate systems, accurate prediction of summer monsoon rainfall has become a challenge. The objective of this study is to develop an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) for long range forecast of AISMR. The NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data of temperature, zonal and meridional wind at different pressure levels have been taken to construct the input matrix of ANFIS. The membership of the input parameters for AISMR as high, medium or low is estimated with trapezoidal membership function. The fuzzified standardized input parameters and the de-fuzzified target output are trained with artificial neural network models. The forecast of AISMR with ANFIS is compared with non-hybrid multi-layer perceptron model (MLP), radial basis functions network (RBFN) and multiple linear regression (MLR) models. The forecast error analyses of the models reveal that ANFIS provides the best forecast of AISMR with minimum prediction error of 0.076, whereas the errors with MLP, RBFN and MLR models are 0.22, 0.18 and 0.73 respectively. During validation with observations, ANFIS shows its potency over the said comparative models. Performance of the ANFIS model is verified through different statistical skill scores, which also confirms the aptitude of ANFIS in forecasting AISMR. The forecast skill of ANFIS is also observed to be better than Climate Forecast System version 2. The real-time forecast with ANFIS shows possibility of deficit (65-75 cm) AISMR in the year 2015.

  5. Physically based modelling of rainfall-runoff processes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Diermanse, F.L.M.

    2001-01-01

    This PhD. research was set up to investigate the use of rainfall-runoff models for simulation of high water events in hillslope areas. First, dominant parameters for runoff production during high water events have been identified. Subsequently, the influence of antecedent conditions on runoff percen

  6. [Monitoring and analysis on evolution process of rainfall runoff water quality in urban area].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Wen; Li, Huai-En; Li, Jia-Ke

    2013-02-01

    In order to find the water quality evolution law and pollution characteristics of the rainfall runoff from undisturbed to the neighborhood exit, 6 times evolution process of rainfall runoff water quality were monitored and analyzed from July to October in 2011, and contrasted the clarification efficiency of the grassland to the roof runoff rudimentarily at the same time. The research showed: 1. the results of the comparison from "undisturbed, rainfall-roof, rainfall runoff-road, rainfall-runoff the neighborhood exit runoff " showed that the water quality of the undisturbed rain was better than that from the roof and the neighborhood exist, but the road rainfall runoff water quality was the worst; 2. the average concentrations of the parameters such as COD, ammonia nitrogen and total nitrogen all exceeded the Fifth Class of the Surface Water Quality Standard except for the soluble total phosphorus from undisturbed rainfall to the neighborhood exit; 3. the runoff water quality of the short early fine days was better than that of long early fine days, and the last runoff water quality was better than that of the initial runoff in the same rainfall process; 4. the concentration reduction of the grassland was notable, and the reduction rate of the grassland which is 1.0 meter wide of the roof runoff pollutants such as COD and nitrogen reached 30%.

  7. Estimating impact of rainfall change on hydrological processes in Jianfengling rainforest watershed, China using BASINS-HSPF-CAT modeling system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang Zhou; Ying Ouyang; Yide Li; Zhijun Qiu; Matt Moran

    2017-01-01

    Climate change over the past several decades has resulted in shifting rainfall pattern and modifying rain-fall intensity, which has exacerbated hydrological processes and added the uncertainty and instability tothese processes. This study ascertained impacts of potential future rainfall change on hydrological pro-cesses at the Jianfengling (JFL) tropical mountain...

  8. Post processing rainfall forecasts from numerical weather prediction models for short term streamflow forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. E. Robertson

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Sub-daily ensemble rainfall forecasts that are bias free and reliably quantify forecast uncertainty are critical for flood and short-term ensemble streamflow forecasting. Post processing of rainfall predictions from numerical weather prediction models is typically required to provide rainfall forecasts with these properties. In this paper, a new approach to generate ensemble rainfall forecasts by post processing raw NWP rainfall predictions is introduced. The approach uses a simplified version of the Bayesian joint probability modelling approach to produce forecast probability distributions for individual locations and forecast periods. Ensemble forecasts with appropriate spatial and temporal correlations are then generated by linking samples from the forecast probability distributions using the Schaake shuffle. The new approach is evaluated by applying it to post process predictions from the ACCESS-R numerical weather prediction model at rain gauge locations in the Ovens catchment in southern Australia. The joint distribution of NWP predicted and observed rainfall is shown to be well described by the assumed log-sinh transformed multivariate normal distribution. Ensemble forecasts produced using the approach are shown to be more skilful than the raw NWP predictions both for individual forecast periods and for cumulative totals throughout the forecast periods. Skill increases result from the correction of not only the mean bias, but also biases conditional on the magnitude of the NWP rainfall prediction. The post processed forecast ensembles are demonstrated to successfully discriminate between events and non-events for both small and large rainfall occurrences, and reliably quantify the forecast uncertainty. Future work will assess the efficacy of the post processing method for a wider range of climatic conditions and also investigate the benefits of using post processed rainfall forecast for flood and short term streamflow forecasting.

  9. Post-processing rainfall forecasts from numerical weather prediction models for short-term streamflow forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. E. Robertson

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Sub-daily ensemble rainfall forecasts that are bias free and reliably quantify forecast uncertainty are critical for flood and short-term ensemble streamflow forecasting. Post-processing of rainfall predictions from numerical weather prediction models is typically required to provide rainfall forecasts with these properties. In this paper, a new approach to generate ensemble rainfall forecasts by post-processing raw numerical weather prediction (NWP rainfall predictions is introduced. The approach uses a simplified version of the Bayesian joint probability modelling approach to produce forecast probability distributions for individual locations and forecast lead times. Ensemble forecasts with appropriate spatial and temporal correlations are then generated by linking samples from the forecast probability distributions using the Schaake shuffle. The new approach is evaluated by applying it to post-process predictions from the ACCESS-R numerical weather prediction model at rain gauge locations in the Ovens catchment in southern Australia. The joint distribution of NWP predicted and observed rainfall is shown to be well described by the assumed log-sinh transformed bivariate normal distribution. Ensemble forecasts produced using the approach are shown to be more skilful than the raw NWP predictions both for individual forecast lead times and for cumulative totals throughout all forecast lead times. Skill increases result from the correction of not only the mean bias, but also biases conditional on the magnitude of the NWP rainfall prediction. The post-processed forecast ensembles are demonstrated to successfully discriminate between events and non-events for both small and large rainfall occurrences, and reliably quantify the forecast uncertainty. Future work will assess the efficacy of the post-processing method for a wider range of climatic conditions and also investigate the benefits of using post-processed rainfall forecasts for flood and short

  10. Qualitative assessment of PMIP3 rainfall simulations across the eastern African monsoon domains during the mid-Holocene and the Last Glacial Maximum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chevalier, Manuel; Brewer, Simon; Chase, Brian M.

    2017-01-01

    In this paper we compare a compilation of multiproxy records spanning the eastern African margin with general circulation model simulations of seasonal precipitation fields for the mid-Holocene and the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) carried out as part of the third phase of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP3). Results show good agreement during the mid-Holocene (the '6K experiment'), with palaeodata and model outputs correlating well and indicating that changes in insolation drove a stronger northern African monsoon (north of ∼0-5°S) during the terminal "African Humid Period" and a weaker southeast African monsoon. For the LGM (the '21K experiment'), however, significant discrepancies exist both between model simulations, and between existing palaeodata and simulated conditions, both in terms of direction and amplitude of change. None of the PMIP3 simulations reflect the pattern inferred from the palaeodata. Two major discrepancies have been identified to explain this: 1) the limited sensitivity of the southern monsoon domain to the colder temperatures of the Indian Ocean (-2 °C), and 2) the absence of changes in the dynamic of the Indian Ocean Walker circulation over the entire basin, despite the exposure of the Sahul and Sunda shelves that weakened convection over the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool during the LGM. These results indicate that some major features of the atmospheric and oceanic teleconnections between the different monsoon regions require further consideration as models evolve.

  11. A combined Pòlya process and mixture distribution approach to rainfall modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Todini

    1997-01-01

    Full Text Available A new probabilistic interpretation of at site rainfall sequences is introduced for the development of a stochastic model of rain. The model, is divided into two sub models; the first one describing the total number of rainfall spells within a window of time is described by a Pòlya process in order to reproduce better the variable probability of occurrence of rainfall during storm events (due to the presence of different numbers of rainfall cells; the second sub model, conditional on the first one, describes the total quantity of rainfall in the time window, given a number of rainfall spells. The probabilistic rainfall model, which has shown interesting properties in reproducing the probability distribution of observed data at time scales ranging from one hour to twenty-four hours, may be the basis for a number of applications which include the development of a conditional stochastic generator of rain, within the frame of real-time flood forecasting, and the derivation of a probabilistic distribution of rainfall extremes at the various time scales.

  12. parameterrization of microphysical and dynamical processes of rainfall in thunderstorm cloud model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. J.

    2002-12-01

    Full Text Available   In this research parameterization of the precipitation process in Ogura & Takahashi (O-T thunderstorm model was improved in microphysical processes, specially in the autoconversion process to form raindrops, in the glaciation process and in the terminal velocities of rain and hail. The rainfall intensity became much heavier with Kesslers parameterization, the second peak of the rainfall intensity disappeared with Biggs freezing probability, and the rainfall intensity became much heavier and sharper with Lin et als terminal velocities of rain and hail than in the O-T original model. Finally, the derived rainfall pattern based on the improved model has much similarities to the observation data. This paper expresses the basic research for studying the physical treatment in clouds. The modified O-T model has different applications in analyzing radar observation data, estimate the potential of soil erosion, parameteriztion of shower in mesoscale numerical weather prediction and eta.

  13. Coastal processes at the southern tip of India during summer monsoon 2005

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Smitha, B.R.; VimalKumar, K.G.; Sanjeevan, V.N.

    In situ temperature and wind data, during summer monsoon 2005, bring out some interesting features like, the existence of a purely wind driven upweiling system at the southern tip (ST), very adjacent to another remotely forced upweiling system...

  14. On the atmospheric dynamical responses to land-use change in East Asian monsoon region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Huqiang; Gao, Xuejie

    2009-08-01

    This study aims at (1) exploring dominant atmospheric dynamical processes which are responsible for climate model-simulated land-use impacts on Asian monsoon; and (2) assessing uncertainty in such model simulations due to their skills in simulating detailed monsoon circulations in the region. Firstly, results from a series of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre (BMRC) global model simulations of land-use vegetation changes (LUC) in China are analysed. The model showed consistent signals of changes in atmospheric low-level vertical profile and regional circulations responding to LUC. In northern winter, the model-simulated rainfall reduction and surface cooling are associated with an enhanced southward penetration of dry and cold air mass, which impedes warm and humid air reaching the region for generating cold-front rainfall. In its summer, an enhanced cyclonic circulation responding to LUC further blocks the northeast penetration of southwestly summer monsoon flow into the region and results in rainfall decreases and a surface warming. Secondly, we have explored uncertainties in the proposed mechanism operating in the global model. By comparing its results with a set of high-resolution regional model simulations using the same vegetation datasets, it reveals similar changes in winter rainfall but opposite features in summer rainfall responses. In the global model, there is a cyclonic low-level circulation pattern over the South China Sea and adjacent region, an unsatisfactory feature commonly seen in other global climate models. With the reduction in surface roughness following LUC, such a deficiency becomes more prominent which further results in a weakened south/southwestly summer monsoon flow and rainfall reduction. In contrast, in the regional model, its southwestly summer monsoon flow is further enhanced due to the same process as reduced surface roughness. The enhanced monsoon flow further pushes the East Asian monsoon rainfall belt more

  15. A new criterion for identifying breaks in monsoon conditions over the Indian subcontinent

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    RameshKumar, M.R.; Dessai, U.R.P.

    of July. The quantum of monsoon rainfall also varies from year to year. The monsoon rainfall is not continuous within the life cycle of a monsoon; there are several spells of active, weak and break in monsoon conditions. The summer monsoon months...? to refer different features such as convection and circulation etc. over different regions. Further, the authors have used different durations to refer the break as well as looked them in different months. [4] By analyzing 80 years (1888...

  16. Improved radar data processing algorithms for quantitative rainfall estimation in real time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krämer, S; Verworn, H R

    2009-01-01

    This paper describes a new methodology to process C-band radar data for direct use as rainfall input to hydrologic and hydrodynamic models and in real time control of urban drainage systems. In contrast to the adjustment of radar data with the help of rain gauges, the new approach accounts for the microphysical properties of current rainfall. In a first step radar data are corrected for attenuation. This phenomenon has been identified as the main cause for the general underestimation of radar rainfall. Systematic variation of the attenuation coefficients within predefined bounds allows robust reflectivity profiling. Secondly, event specific R-Z relations are applied to the corrected radar reflectivity data in order to generate quantitative reliable radar rainfall estimates. The results of the methodology are validated by a network of 37 rain gauges located in the Emscher and Lippe river basins. Finally, the relevance of the correction methodology for radar rainfall forecasts is demonstrated. It has become clearly obvious, that the new methodology significantly improves the radar rainfall estimation and rainfall forecasts. The algorithms are applicable in real time.

  17. Processes influencing rainfall features in the Amazonian region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerken, T.; Chamecki, M.; Fuentes, J. D.; Katul, G. G.; Fitzjarrald, D. R.; Manzi, A. O.; Nascimento dos Santos, R. M.; von Randow, C.; Stoy, P. C.; Tota, J.; Trowbridge, A.; Schumacher, C.; Machado, L.

    2014-12-01

    The Amazon is globally unique as it experiences the deepest atmospheric convection with important teleconnections to other parts of the Earth's climate system. In the Amazon Basin a large fraction of the local evapotranspiration is recycled through the formation of deep convective precipitating storms. Deep convection occurs due to moist thermodynamic conditions associated with elevated amounts of convective available potential energy. Aerosols invigorate the formation of convective storms in the Amazon via their unique concentrations, physical size, and chemical composition to activate into cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), but important aspects of aerosol/precipitation feedbacks remain unresolved. During the wet season, low atmospheric aerosol concentrations prevail in the pristine tropical air masses. These conditions have led to the Green Ocean hypothesis, which compares the clean tropical air to maritime air-masses and emphasizes biosphere-atmosphere feedbacks, to explain the features of the convective-type rainfall events in the Amazon. Field studies have been designed to investigate these relationships and the development of mesoscale convective systems through the Green Ocean Amazon project and the GOAmazon Boundary Layer Experiment. From March to October 2014 a field experiment was conducted at the Cuieiras Biological Reserve (2°51' S, 54°58' W), 80 km north of the city of Manaus, Brazil. This investigation spans the biological, chemical, and physical conditions influencing emissions and reactions of precursors (biogenic and anthropogenic volatile organic compounds, VOCs), formation of aerosols and CCNs and transport out of the ABL, and their role in cloud formation and precipitation triggers. In this presentation we will show results on the magnitude turbulent fluxes of latent and sensible heat, CCN concentrations, and rain droplet size distribution for both the wet and dry season. Such influencing factors on precipitation, will be contrasted with the

  18. Forecasting Monsoon Precipitation Using Artificial Neural Networks

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    This paper explores the application of Artificial Intelligent (AI) techniques for climate forecast. It pres ents a study on modelling the monsoon precipitation forecast by means of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs). Using the historical data of the total amount of summer rainfall over the Delta Area of Yangtze River in China, three ANNs models have been developed to forecast the monsoon precipitation in the corre sponding area one year, five-year, and ten-year forward respectively. Performances of the models have been validated using a 'new' data set that has not been exposed to the models during the processes of model development and test. The experiment results are promising, indicating that the proposed ANNs models have good quality in terms of the accuracy, stability and generalisation ability.

  19. Beyond Rainfall Multipliers: Describing Input Uncertainty as an Autocorrelated Stochastic Process Improves Inference in Hydrology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Del Giudice, D.; Albert, C.; Reichert, P.; Rieckermann, J.

    2015-12-01

    Rainfall is the main driver of hydrological systems. Unfortunately, it is highly variable in space and time and therefore difficult to observe accurately. This poses a serious challenge to correctly estimate the catchment-averaged precipitation, a key factor for hydrological models. As biased precipitation leads to biased parameter estimation and thus to biased runoff predictions, it is very important to have a realistic description of precipitation uncertainty. Rainfall multipliers (RM), which correct each observed storm with a random factor, provide a first step into this direction. Nevertheless, they often fail when the estimated input has a different temporal pattern from the true one or when a storm is not detected by the raingauge. In this study we propose a more realistic input error model, which is able to overcome these challenges and increase our certainty by better estimating model input and parameters. We formulate the average precipitation over the watershed as a stochastic input process (SIP). We suggest a transformed Gauss-Markov process, which is estimated in a Bayesian framework by using input (rainfall) and output (runoff) data. We tested the methodology in a 28.6 ha urban catchment represented by an accurate conceptual model. Specifically, we perform calibration and predictions with SIP and RM using accurate data from nearby raingauges (R1) and inaccurate data from a distant gauge (R2). Results show that using SIP, the estimated model parameters are "protected" from the corrupting impact of inaccurate rainfall. Additionally, SIP can correct input biases during calibration (Figure) and reliably quantify rainfall and runoff uncertainties during both calibration (Figure) and validation. In our real-word application with non-trivial rainfall errors, this was not the case with RM. We therefore recommend SIP in all cases where the input is the predominant source of uncertainty. Furthermore, the high-resolution rainfall intensities obtained with this

  20. Statistical Downscaling for Multi-Model Ensemble Prediction of Summer Monsoon Rainfall in the Asia-Pacific Region Using Geopotential Height Field

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHU Congwen; Chung-Kyu PARK; Woo-Sung LEE; Won-Tae YUN

    2008-01-01

    The 21-yr ensemble predictions of model precipitation and circulation in the East Asian and western North Pacific(Asia-Pacific)summer monsoon region(0°-50°N,100°-150°E)were evaluated in nine different AGCM,used in the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Climate Center(APCCl multi.model ensemble seasonal prediction system.The analysis indicates that the precipitation anomaly patterns of model ensemble predictions are substantially difierent from the observed counterparts in this region.but the summer monsoon circulations are reasonably predicted.For example,all models can well produce the interannual variability of the western North Pacific monsoon index(WNPMI)defined by 850 hPa winds,but they failed to predict the relationship between WNPMI and precipitation anomalies.The interannual variability of the 500 hPa geopotential height(GPH)can be well predicted by the models in contrast to precipitation anomalies.On the basis of such model performances and the relationship between the interannual variations of 500 hPa GPH and precipitation anomalies.we developed a statistical scheme used to downscale the summer monsoon precipitation anomaly Oll the basis of EOF and singular value decomposition(SVD).In this scheme,the three leading EOF modes of 500 hPa GPH anomaly fields predicted by the models are firstly corrected by the linear regression between the principal components in each model and observation.respectively.Then. the corrected model GPH is chosen as the predictor to downscale the precipitation anomaly field,which is assembled by the forecasted expansion toeffcients of model 500 hPa GPH and the three leading SVD modes of observed precipitation anomaly corresponding to the prediction of model 500 hPa GPH during a 19-year training period.The cross-validated forecasts suggest that this dowuscaling scheme may have a potential to improve the forecast skill of the precipitation anomaly in the South China Sea,western North Pacific and the East Asia Pacific regions

  1. Revisiting Asian monsoon formation and change associated with Tibetan Plateau forcing: I. Formation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wu, Guoxiong; Liu, Yimin; Duan, Anmin; Bao, Qing [Chinese Academy of Sciences, State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Beijing (China); Dong, Buwen [University of Reading, Department of Meteorology, National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Reading (United Kingdom); Liang, Xiaoyun [China Meteorological Administration, National Climate Center, Beijing (China); Yu, Jingjing [China Meteorological Administration, National Meteorological Information Center, Beijing (China)

    2012-09-15

    Numerical experiments with different idealized land and mountain distributions are carried out to study the formation of the Asian monsoon and related coupling processes. Results demonstrate that when there is only extratropical continent located between 0 and 120 E and between 20/30 N and the North Pole, a rather weak monsoon rainband appears along the southern border of the continent, coexisting with an intense intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). The continuous ITCZ surrounds the whole globe, prohibits the development of near-surface cross-equatorial flow, and collects water vapor from tropical oceans, resulting in very weak monsoon rainfall. When tropical lands are integrated, the ITCZ over the longitude domain where the extratropical continent exists disappears as a consequence of the development of a strong surface cross-equatorial flow from the winter hemisphere to the summer hemisphere. In addition, an intense interaction between the two hemispheres develops, tropical water vapor is transported to the subtropics by the enhanced poleward flow, and a prototype of the Asian monsoon appears. The Tibetan Plateau acts to enhance the coupling between the lower and upper tropospheric circulations and between the subtropical and tropical monsoon circulations, resulting in an intensification of the East Asian summer monsoon and a weakening of the South Asian summer monsoon. Linking the Iranian Plateau to the Tibetan Plateau substantially reduces the precipitation over Africa and increases the precipitation over the Arabian Sea and the northern Indian subcontinent, effectively contributing to the development of the South Asian summer monsoon. (orig.)

  2. Contrasting influences of aerosols on cloud properties during deficient and abundant monsoon years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patil, Nitin; Dave, Prashant; Venkataraman, Chandra

    2017-03-24

    Direct aerosol radiative forcing facilitates the onset of Indian monsoon rainfall, based on synoptic scale fast responses acting over timescales of days to a month. Here, we examine relationships between aerosols and coincident clouds over the Indian subcontinent, using observational data from 2000 to 2009, from the core monsoon region. Season mean and daily timescales were considered. The correlation analyses of cloud properties with aerosol optical depth revealed that deficient monsoon years were characterized by more frequent and larger decreases in cloud drop size and ice water path, but increases in cloud top pressure, with increases in aerosol abundance. The opposite was observed during abundant monsoon years. The correlations of greater aerosol abundance, with smaller cloud drop size, lower evidence of ice processes and shallower cloud height, during deficient rainfall years, imply cloud inhibition; while those with larger cloud drop size, greater ice processes and a greater cloud vertical extent, during abundant rainfall years, suggest cloud invigoration. The study establishes that continental aerosols over India alter cloud properties in diametrically opposite ways during contrasting monsoon years. The mechanisms underlying these effects need further analysis.

  3. Scale dependence of Hortonian rainfall-runoff processes in a semiarid environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, L.; Sela, S.; Svoray, T.; Assouline, S.

    2016-07-01

    Scale dependence of Hortonian rainfall-runoff processes has received much attention in the literature but has not been fully resolved. To further explore this issue, a recently developed model was applied to simulate rainfall-infiltration-runoff processes at multiple spatial scales. The model consists of the coupling between a two-dimensional runoff routing module and a two-layer infiltration module, thus accounting for spatial variability in soil properties, soil surface sealing, topography, and partial vegetation cover. A 76 m2 semiarid experimental plot with sparse cover of vegetation patches and a sealed soil surface in inter-patch bare areas was used as a representative elementary area (REA). A series of four larger artificial plots of different areas was created based on this REA to examine the scale dependence of rainfall-runoff relationships in the case of stationary heterogeneity. Results show that runoff depth (or runoff coefficient) decreases with increasing scale. This trend is more prominent at scales less than 10 times the REA length. Power law relationships can quantitatively describe the scaling law. The major mechanism of the scale effect is run-on infiltration. However, rainfall intensity and soil properties can both affect the scaling trend through their interaction with run-on. Higher intensity and less temporal variability of rainfall can both reduce the scale effect. Temporally intermittent rainfall may produce spatially oscillating infiltration rates at large scales. Vegetation patterns are another factor that may affect the scaling. Random-vegetation patterns, compared with regular patterns with similar statistical properties, change the spatial distributions, but do not significantly change either the total amount and statistical properties of infiltration and runoff or the scale dependence of the rainfall-runoff process.

  4. Hybrid wavelet-support vector machine approach for modelling rainfall-runoff process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komasi, Mehdi; Sharghi, Soroush

    2016-01-01

    Because of the importance of water resources management, the need for accurate modeling of the rainfall-runoff process has rapidly grown in the past decades. Recently, the support vector machine (SVM) approach has been used by hydrologists for rainfall-runoff modeling and the other fields of hydrology. Similar to the other artificial intelligence models, such as artificial neural network (ANN) and adaptive neural fuzzy inference system, the SVM model is based on the autoregressive properties. In this paper, the wavelet analysis was linked to the SVM model concept for modeling the rainfall-runoff process of Aghchai and Eel River watersheds. In this way, the main time series of two variables, rainfall and runoff, were decomposed to multiple frequent time series by wavelet theory; then, these time series were imposed as input data on the SVM model in order to predict the runoff discharge one day ahead. The obtained results show that the wavelet SVM model can predict both short- and long-term runoff discharges by considering the seasonality effects. Also, the proposed hybrid model is relatively more appropriate than classical autoregressive ones such as ANN and SVM because it uses the multi-scale time series of rainfall and runoff data in the modeling process.

  5. Modelling Monsoons: Understanding and Predicting Current and Future Behaviour

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Turner, A; Sperber, K R; Slingo, J M; Meehl, G A; Mechoso, C R; Kimoto, M; Giannini, A

    2008-09-16

    The global monsoon system is so varied and complex that understanding and predicting its diverse behaviour remains a challenge that will occupy modellers for many years to come. Despite the difficult task ahead, an improved monsoon modelling capability has been realized through the inclusion of more detailed physics of the climate system and higher resolution in our numerical models. Perhaps the most crucial improvement to date has been the development of coupled ocean-atmosphere models. From subseasonal to interdecadal timescales, only through the inclusion of air-sea interaction can the proper phasing and teleconnections of convection be attained with respect to sea surface temperature variations. Even then, the response to slow variations in remote forcings (e.g., El Nino-Southern Oscillation) does not result in a robust solution, as there are a host of competing modes of variability that must be represented, including those that appear to be chaotic. Understanding the links between monsoons and land surface processes is not as mature as that explored regarding air-sea interactions. A land surface forcing signal appears to dominate the onset of wet season rainfall over the North American monsoon region, though the relative role of ocean versus land forcing remains a topic of investigation in all the monsoon systems. Also, improved forecasts have been made during periods in which additional sounding observations are available for data assimilation. Thus, there is untapped predictability that can only be attained through the development of a more comprehensive observing system for all monsoon regions. Additionally, improved parameterizations - for example, of convection, cloud, radiation, and boundary layer schemes as well as land surface processes - are essential to realize the full potential of monsoon predictability. Dynamical considerations require ever increased horizontal resolution (probably to 0.5 degree or higher) in order to resolve many monsoon features

  6. Influence of orographically enhanced SW monsoon flux on coastal processes along the SE Arabian Sea

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Chauhan, O.S.; Raghavan, B.R.; Singh, K.; Rajawat, A.S.; Ajai; Kader, U.S.A.; Nayak, S.

    , 501-511. Chauhan, O. S., E. Vogelsang, N. Basavaiah, and U. S. A. Kader (2010), Reconstruction of the variability of the southwest monsoon during the past 3 ka, from the continental margin of the southeastern Arabian Sea, J. Quaternary Sci., 25...

  7. Reply to 'Influence of cosmic ray variability on the monsoon rainfall and temperature': a false-positive in the field of solar-terrestrial research

    CERN Document Server

    Laken, Benjamin A

    2015-01-01

    A litany of research has been published claiming strong solar influences on the Earth's weather and climate. Much of this work includes documented errors and false-positives, yet is still frequently used to substantiate arguments of global warming denial. This manuscript reports on a recent study by Badruddin & Aslam (2014), hereafter BA14, which claimed a highly significant ($p=1.4\\times10^{-5}$) relationship between extremes in the intensity of the Indian monsoon and the cosmic ray flux. They further speculated that the relationship they observed may apply across the entire tropical and sub-tropical belt, and be of global importance. However, their statistical analysis---and consequently their conclusions---were wrong. Specifically, their error resulted from an assumption that their data's underlying distribution was Gaussian. But, as demonstrated in this work, their data closely follow an ergodic chaotic distribution biased towards extreme values. From a probability density function, calculated using a...

  8. Type-segregated aerosol effects on regional monsoon activity: A study using ground-based experiments and model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vijayakumar, K.; Devara, P. C. S.; Sonbawne, S. M.

    2014-12-01

    Classification of observed aerosols into key types [e.g., clean-maritime (CM), desert-dust (DD), urban-industrial/biomass-burning (UI/BB), black carbon (BC), organic carbon (OC) and mixed-type aerosols (MA)] would facilitate to infer aerosol sources, effects, and feedback mechanisms, not only to improve the accuracy of satellite retrievals but also to quantify the assessment of aerosol radiative impacts on climate. In this paper, we report the results of a study conducted in this direction, employing a Cimel Sun-sky radiometer at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune, India during 2008 and 2009, which represent two successive contrasting monsoon years. The study provided an observational evidence to show that the local sources are subject to heavy loading of absorbing aerosols (dust and black carbon), with strong seasonality closely linked to the monsoon annual rainfall cycle over Pune, a tropical urban station in India. The results revealed the absence of CM aerosols in the pre-monsoon as well as in the monsoon seasons of 2009 as opposed to 2008. Higher loading of dust aerosols is observed in the pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons of 2009; majority may be coated with fine BC aerosols from local emissions, leading to reduction in regional rainfall. Further, significant decrease in coarse-mode AOD and presence of carbonaceous aerosols, affecting the aerosol-cloud interaction and monsoon-rain processes via microphysics and dynamics, is considered responsible for the reduction in rainfall during 2009. Additionally, we discuss how optical depth, contributed by different types of aerosols, influences the distribution of monsoon rainfall over an urban region using the Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate (MACC) aerosol reanalysis. Furthermore, predictions of the Dust REgional Atmospheric Model (DREAM) simulations combined with HYSPLIT (HYbrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory) cluster model are also discussed in support of the

  9. Tropical Indian Ocean response to the decay phase of El Niño in a coupled model and associated changes in south and east-Asian summer monsoon circulation and rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chowdary, Jasti S.; Parekh, Anant; Kakatkar, Rashmi; Gnanaseelan, C.; Srinivas, G.; Singh, Prem; Roxy, M. K.

    2016-08-01

    This study investigates the response of tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) sea surface temperature (SST) to El Niño decay phase and its impacts on South and East Asian summer monsoon in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System version 2 free run. The TIO basin-wide warming induced by El Niño at its peak phase (winter; DJF) and next spring (MAM + 1) are reasonably well captured by the model but with weak magnitude. This TIO basin-wide SST warming persists until summer (JJA + 1) and exert strong impact on summer monsoon rainfall and circulation as revealed in the observations. However, TIO SST anomalies are very weak in the model during the El Niño decaying summers. Though El Niño decay is delayed by 2 months in the model, decay of TIO SST warming is faster than the observations. Anomalous latent heat loss from ocean and a feeble southern TIO Rossby waves associated with weak wind response to El Niño are mainly accountable for rapid decay of TIO SST warming by mid-summer in the model. This suggests that JJA + 1 TIO SST response to El Niño decay phase in the model is poorly represented. The model is able to capture the SST anomalies associated with the northwest Pacific anticyclone at the peak phase of El Niño but fail to maintain that during the decay phase in MAM + 1 and JJA + 1. It is found that precipitation and circulation anomalies associated with TIO SST warming over the South and East Asian regions are disorganized in the model during the decay phase of El Niño. Rainfall anomalies over the southwest TIO, west coast of India, northern flank of northwest Pacific anticyclone and over Japan in JJA + 1 are poorly represented by the model. Analysis of lower troposphere stream function and rotational wind component reveals that northwest Pacific anticyclone shifted far eastward to the date line in the model during JJA + 1 unlike in the observations. Anomalous divergence observed over the western TIO and convergence in the northwest

  10. Mathematical Models of Mass Transfer Processes in Soils with Account for Their Interaction with Rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galiullina, N. E.; Khramchenkov, M. G.

    2017-07-01

    Equations of physicochemical mechanics for swelling soils interacting with rainfall in the course of the process of surface discharge are obtained. The behavior of unsaturated swelling soils in anomalous conditions of surface discharge has been analyzed. A comparison with the data of normal conditions of the surface discharge regime has been carried out.

  11. Modelling the embedded rainfall process using tipping bucket data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thyregod, Peter; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Madsen, Henrik;

    1998-01-01

    A new method for modelling the dynamics of rain measurement processes is suggested. The method takes the discrete nature and autocorrelation of measurements from the tipping bucket rain gauge into consideration. The considered model is a state space model with a Poisson marginal distribution....... In the model there is only one parameter, a thinning parameter. The model is tested on 39 rain events. The estimated value for the various rain events is reflecting a subjective classification of rain events into frontal and convective rain. Finally, it is demonstrated how the model can be used for simulation...

  12. Rare earth elements tracing the soil erosion processes on slope surface under natural rainfall

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhu Mingyong [Key Laboratory of Aquatic Botany and Watershed Ecology, Wuhan Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan 430074 (China); Graduate School of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049 (China); Tan Shuduan [College of Bioscience and Biotechnology, Hunan Agricultural University, Changsha 410128 (China); Dang Haishan [Key Laboratory of Aquatic Botany and Watershed Ecology, Wuhan Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan 430074 (China); Zhang Quanfa, E-mail: qzhang@wbgcas.cn [Key Laboratory of Aquatic Botany and Watershed Ecology, Wuhan Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan 430074 (China)

    2011-12-15

    A field experiment using rare earth elements (REEs) as tracers was conducted to investigate soil erosion processes on slope surfaces during rainfall events. A plot of 10 m x 2 m x 0.16 m with a gradient of 20{sup o} (36.4%) was established and the plot was divided into two layers and four segments. Various REE tracers were applied to the different layers and segments to determine sediment dynamics under natural rainfall. Results indicated that sheet erosion accounted for more than 90% of total erosion when the rainfall amount and density was not large enough to generate concentrated flows. Sediment source changed in different sections on the slope surface, and the primary sediment source area tended to move upslope as erosion progressed. In rill erosion, sediment discharge mainly originated from the toe-slope and moved upwards as erosion intensified. The results obtained from this study suggest that multi-REE tracer technique is valuable in understanding the erosion processes and determining sediment sources. - Highlights: > Soil erosion processes with rare earth elements was conducted under natural rainfall. > Experimental setup developed here has seldom implemented in the world. > Sheet erosion is the main erosion type and main contributor to sediment loss. > Sediment source changed in different sections on the slope surface. > The primary sediment source area tended to move upslope as erosion progressed.

  13. Impact of the Thermal State of the Tropical Western Pacific on Onset Date and Process of the South China Sea Summer Monsoon

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2006-01-01

    Since the early or late onset of the South China Sea summer monsoon (SCSM) has a large impact on summer monsoon rainfall in East Asia, the mechanism and process of early or late onset of the SCSM are an worthy issue to study. In this paper, the results analyzed by using the observed data show that the onset date and process of the SCSM are closely associated with the thermal state of the tropical western Pacific in spring. When the tropical western Pacific is in a warming state in spring, the western Pacific subtropical high shifts eastward, and twin cyclones are early caused over the Bay of Bengal and Sumatra before the SCSM onset. In this case, the cyclonic circulation located over the Bay of Bengal can be early intensified and become into a strong trough. Thus, the westerly flow and convective activity can be intensified over Sumatra, the Indo-China Peninsula and the South China Sea (SCS) in mid-May. This leads to early onset of the SCSM. In contrast, when the tropical western Pacific is in a cooling state, the western Pacific subtropical high anomalously shifts westward, the twin cyclones located over the equatorial eastern Indian Ocean and Sumatra are weakened, and the twin anomaly anticyclones appear over these regions from late April to mid-May. Thus, the westerly flow and convective activity cannot be early intensified over the Indo-China Peninsula and the SCS. Only when the western Pacific subtropical high moves eastward, the weak trough located over the Bay of Bengal can be intensified and become into a strong trough, the strong southwesterly wind and convective activity can be intensified over the Indo-China Peninsula and the SCS in late May. Thus, this leads to late onset of the SCSM. Moreover, in this paper, the influencing mechanism of the thermal state of the tropical western Pacific on the SCSM onset is discussed further from the Walker circulation anomalies in the different thermal states of the tropical western Pacific.

  14. Arabian Peninsula-North Pacific Oscillation and its association with the Asian summer monsoon

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2008-01-01

    Using correlation and EOF analyses on sea level pressure from 57-year NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data, the Arabian Peninsula-North Pacific Oscillation (APNPO) is identified. The APNPO reflects the co-variability between the North Pacific high and South Asian summer monsoon low. This teleconnec- tion pattern is closely related to the Asian summer monsoon. On interannual timescale, it co-varies with both the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and South Asian summer monsoon (SASM); on decadal timescale, it co-varies with the EASM: both exhibit two abrupt climate changes in the middle 1960s and the late 1970s respectively. The possible physical process for the connections between the APNPO and Asian summer monsoon is then explored by analyzing the APNPO-related atmospheric circulations. The results show that with a strong APNPO, the Somali Jet, SASM flow, EASM flow, and South Asian high are all enhanced, and an anomalous anticyclone is produced at the upper level over northeast China via a zonal wave train. Meanwhile, the moisture transportation to the Asian monsoon regions is also strengthened in a strong APNPO year, leading to a strong moisture convergence over India and northern China. All these changes of circulations and moisture conditions finally result in an anoma- lous Asian summer monsoon and monsoon rainfall over India and northern China. In addition, the APNPO has a good persistence from spring to summer. The spring APNPO is also significantly corre- lated with Asian summer monsoon variability. The spring APNPO might therefore provide valuable in- formation for the prediction of Asian summer monsoon.

  15. Onset, active and break periods of the Australian monsoon

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shaik, Hakeem A [Northern Territory Regional Office, Australian Bureau of Meteorology, PO Box 40050, NT Regional Office, Bureau of Meteorology, Casuarina NT 0811, Darwin (Australia); Cleland, Samuel J, E-mail: h.shaik@bom.gov.a [Bureau of Meteorology, Cape Grim BAPS, Smithton Tasmania TAS 7300 (Australia)

    2010-08-15

    Four operational techniques of monsoon monitoring the Australian monsoon at Darwin have been developed in the Darwin Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre. Two techniques used the rainfall only criteria and look into the onset of wet season rainfall/monsoon rainfall. The other two techniques are based purely on Darwin wind data. The data used for the study ranges from 14 to 21 years. The main purpose of the study is to develop near-real time monitoring tools for the Australian monsoon at Darwin. The average date of onset of the monsoon ranges from 19 December to 30 December. The average date of monsoon onset is 28 December. In eleven out of twenty-one years the onset date remained within three days range between the two rainfall techniques, whereas it is eleven out of fourteen years between the wind techniques. The median number of active monsoon spells in a wet season is 3 for the rainfall techniques and 6 for the wind techniques. The average length of each active monsoon spell is around 4 days for all of the techniques. The date of onset of the monsoon has shown negative correlation with the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) that is late onset is found to occur in El Nino years while early onset is more likely in La Nina years.

  16. Spatial variability and rainfall characteristics of Kerala

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Anu Simon; K Mohankumar

    2004-06-01

    Geographical regions of covariability in precipitation over the Kerala state are exposed using factor analysis. The results suggest that Kerala can be divided into three unique rainfall regions, each region having a similar covariance structure of annual rainfall. Stations north of 10°N (north Kerala) fall into one group and they receive more rainfall than stations south of 10°N (south Kerala). Group I stations receive more than 65% of the annual rainfall during the south-west monsoon period, whereas stations falling in Group II receive 25-30% of annual rainfall during the pre-monsoon and the north-east monsoon periods. The meteorology of Kerala is profoundly influenced by its orographical features, however it is difficult to make out a direct relationship between elevation and rainfall. Local features of the state as reflected in the rainfall distribution are also clearly brought out by the study.

  17. Revised cloud processes to improve the mean and intraseasonal variability of Indian summer monsoon in climate forecast system: Part 1

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abhik, S.; Krishna, R. P. M.; Mahakur, M.; Ganai, Malay; Mukhopadhyay, P.; Dudhia, J.

    2017-06-01

    The National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System (CFS) is being used for operational monsoon prediction over the Indian region. Recent studies indicate that the moist convective process in CFS is one of the major sources of uncertainty in monsoon predictions. In this study, the existing simple cloud microphysics of CFS is replaced by the six-class Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) single moment (WSM6) microphysical scheme. Additionally, a revised convective parameterization is employed to improve the performance of the model in simulating the boreal summer mean climate and intraseasonal variability over the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) region. The revised version of the model (CFSCR) exhibits a potential to improve shortcomings in the seasonal mean precipitation distribution relative to the standard CFS (CTRL), especially over the ISM region. Consistently, notable improvements are also evident in other observed ISM characteristics. These improvements are found to be associated with a better simulation of spatial and vertical distributions of cloud hydrometeors in CFSCR. A reasonable representation of the subgrid-scale convective parameterization along with cloud hydrometeors helps to improve the convective and large-scale precipitation distribution in the model. As a consequence, the simulated low-frequency boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) exhibits realistic propagation and the observed northwest-southeast rainband is well reproduced in CFSCR. Additionally, both the high and low-frequency BSISOs are better captured in CFSCR. The improvement of low and high-frequency BSISOs in CFSCR is shown to be related to a realistic phase relationship of clouds.type="synopsis">type="main">Plain Language SummaryThis study attempts to demonstrate the impact of better representation of cloud processes on simulating the mean and intraseasonal variability of Indian summer monsoon in a revised version of CFSv2 called CFSCR. The CFSCR shows

  18. Large-scale overview of the summer monsoon over West Africa during the AMMA field experiment in 2006

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Janicot

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available The AMMA (African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis program is dedicated to providing a better understanding of the West African monsoon and its influence on the physical, chemical and biological environment regionally and globally, as well as relating variability of this monsoon system to issues of health, water resources, food security and demography for West African nations. Within this framework, an intensive field campaign took place during the summer of 2006 to better document specific processes and weather systems at various key stages of this monsoon season. This campaign was embedded within a longer observation period that documented the annual cycle of surface and atmospheric conditions between 2005 and 2007. The present paper provides a large and regional scale overview of the 2006 summer monsoon season, that includes consideration of of the convective activity, mean atmospheric circulation and synoptic/intraseasonal weather systems, oceanic and land surface conditions, continental hydrology, dust concentration and ozone distribution. The 2006 African summer monsoon was a near-normal rainy season except for a large-scale rainfall excess north of 15° N. This monsoon season was also characterized by a 10-day delayed onset compared to climatology, with convection becoming developed only after 10 July. This onset delay impacted the continental hydrology, soil moisture and vegetation dynamics as well as dust emission. More details of some less-well-known atmospheric features in the African monsoon at intraseasonal and synoptic scales are provided in order to promote future research in these areas.

  19. Large-scale overview of the summer monsoon over West Africa during the AMMA field experiment in 2006

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janicot, S.; Thorncroft, C. D.; Ali, A.; Asencio, N.; Berry, G.; Bock, O.; Bourles, B.; Caniaux, G.; Chauvin, F.; Deme, A.; Kergoat, L.; Lafore, J.-P.; Lavaysse, C.; Lebel, T.; Marticorena, B.; Mounier, F.; Nedelec, P.; Redelsperger, J.-L.; Ravegnani, F.; Reeves, C. E.; Roca, R.; de Rosnay, P.; Schlager, H.; Sultan, B.; Tomasini, M.; Ulanovsky, A.; Acmad Forecasters Team

    2008-09-01

    The AMMA (African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis) program is dedicated to providing a better understanding of the West African monsoon and its influence on the physical, chemical and biological environment regionally and globally, as well as relating variability of this monsoon system to issues of health, water resources, food security and demography for West African nations. Within this framework, an intensive field campaign took place during the summer of 2006 to better document specific processes and weather systems at various key stages of this monsoon season. This campaign was embedded within a longer observation period that documented the annual cycle of surface and atmospheric conditions between 2005 and 2007. The present paper provides a large and regional scale overview of the 2006 summer monsoon season, that includes consideration of of the convective activity, mean atmospheric circulation and synoptic/intraseasonal weather systems, oceanic and land surface conditions, continental hydrology, dust concentration and ozone distribution. The 2006 African summer monsoon was a near-normal rainy season except for a large-scale rainfall excess north of 15° N. This monsoon season was also characterized by a 10-day delayed onset compared to climatology, with convection becoming developed only after 10 July. This onset delay impacted the continental hydrology, soil moisture and vegetation dynamics as well as dust emission. More details of some less-well-known atmospheric features in the African monsoon at intraseasonal and synoptic scales are provided in order to promote future research in these areas.

  20. Forecasting of monsoon heavy rains: challenges in NWP

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharma, Kuldeep; Ashrit, Raghavendra; Iyengar, Gopal; Bhatla, R.; Rajagopal, E. N.

    2016-05-01

    Last decade has seen a tremendous improvement in the forecasting skill of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. This is attributed to increased sophistication in NWP models, which resolve complex physical processes, advanced data assimilation, increased grid resolution and satellite observations. However, prediction of heavy rains is still a challenge since the models exhibit large error in amounts as well as spatial and temporal distribution. Two state-of-art NWP models have been investigated over the Indian monsoon region to assess their ability in predicting the heavy rainfall events. The unified model operational at National Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCUM) and the unified model operational at the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (Australian Community Climate and Earth-System Simulator -- Global (ACCESS-G)) are used in this study. The recent (JJAS 2015) Indian monsoon season witnessed 6 depressions and 2 cyclonic storms which resulted in heavy rains and flooding. The CRA method of verification allows the decomposition of forecast errors in terms of error in the rainfall volume, pattern and location. The case by case study using CRA technique shows that contribution to the rainfall errors come from pattern and displacement is large while contribution due to error in predicted rainfall volume is least.

  1. 2013年5月华南强降水与中国南海夏季风爆发%Severe rainfalls in South China during May 2013 and its relation to the onset of the South China Sea summer monsoon

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    赵欢; 张人禾; 温敏

    2015-01-01

    .The South China Sea (SCS)sum-mer monsoon established in the third pentad of May 2013,just in between two severe rainy stages.There exist significant differences between two events in the major circulation systems,e.g.the South Asia High (SAH)and the subtropical high westerly jet at the higher levels,the circulation pattern at 500 hPa,the water vapor transportation,etc.It indicates typical va-riances of the effects of the large scale circulation on severe rainfalls before and after the onset of SCS monsoon.During 7-12 May,influenced mainly by both the southward invasion of cold front and the convergence of warm moist airflow from the tropi-cal region,the two rain-bands appeared in northern and southern South China.Differently,due to the vigorous convective ac-tivity over South China caused by the strong warm and moist air after the onset of monsoon,the rain-band was formed in the north of Guangdong Province during 14-17 May,with more concentrated and convective precipitation than the former event. The underlying physical mechanisms for the two severe rainfall events are quasi-balanced thermal adjustment process,which is better reflected during the second event because of heavier precipitation.The sounding data in Guangdong are also applied to re-veal differences of the atmosphere dynamic and thermodynamic effects between the two warm sector rainstorms.The warm sec-tor rainstorm during 7-12 May occurred under the condition of the atmospheric baroclinic instability induced by the strong low-levels vertical wind shear.However,the strong coupling between the high-level and low-level jet streams caused the warm sector rainstorm during 14-17 May after the onset of the SCS summer monsoon.

  2. The Effect of Higher Resolution and Improved Formulation of Surface Fluxes, Cloudiness, and Other Physical Parameters on a Simple Simulated Monsoon System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fang, Lie-Shieu

    1985-12-01

    Many general circulation modelers have identified the key factors influencing the Indian southwest monsoon. Although the land-sea distribution and moist adiabatic processes are diagnosed as being the key factors in generating the monsoon, the interrelationship of these processes was not properly clarified so far by the existing models. In the following study the simple Webster and Chou model was employed to diagnose important monsoon events or disturbances such as the shock (suddenness of the monsoon burst), onset vortex, organized precipitation cells etc. and to resolve the near equatorial disturbances that develop on the Southern Equatorial Trough (SET). A two degree resolution in stead of the original four degree resolution was adopted in this study. A noteworthy result of the HR (High Resolution) experiment is the generation of a shock signalling the onset of monsoon. The results of CS (climatologically derived surface winds) case show a weakening of the shock but a stronger development of westerlies at 750 mb agreeing better with observation. The precipitation in association with the onset in CS is less compared to HR but is prolonged. The CA (climatologically derived albedos) experiment affected the timing of the monsoon onset, reduced the intensity of the shock and developed less rainfall than HR. A combination of the CS and CA experiments eliminated the shock, advanced the monsoon onset and increased the rainfall over the land area. The SET experiment demonstrates that SET can influence the monsoon activity by decreasing rainfall particularly north of 25(DEGREES)N. This means that SET can initiate break conditions over northern India. The land-sea boundary experiments dealing with the movement of the land-sea boundary from 10(DEGREES)N to 30(DEGREES)N show that the timing of the monsoon onset is thus dependent on the land-sea distribution while the vigor is dependent on the air-sea exchange.

  3. Land-sea heating contrast in an idealized Asian summer monsoon

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chou, C. [Environmental Change Research Project, Institute of Earth Sciences, Academia Sinica, Taipei, 115 (Taiwan)

    2003-07-01

    Mechanisms determining the tropospheric temperature gradient that is related to the intensity of the Asian summer monsoon are examined in an intermediate atmospheric model coupled with a mixed-layer ocean and a simple land surface model with an idealized Afro-Eurasian continent and no physical topography. These include processes involving in the influence of the Eurasian continent, thermal effects of the Tibetan Plateau and effects of sea surface temperature. The mechanical effect on the large-scale flow induced by the Plateau is not included in this study. The idealized land-sea geometry without topography induces a positive meridional tropospheric temperature gradient thus a weak Asian summer monsoon circulation. Higher prescribed heating and weaker surface albedo over Eurasia and the Tibetan Plateau, which mimic effects of different land surface processes and the thermal effect of the uplift of the Tibetan Plateau, strengthens the meridional temperature gradient, and so as cold tropical SST anomalies. The strengthened meridional temperature gradient enhances the Asian summer monsoon circulation and favors the strong convection. The corresponding monsoon rainbelt extends northward and northeastward and creates variations of the monsoon rainfall anomalies in different subregions. The surface albedo over the Tibetan Plateau has a relatively weak inverse relation with the intensity of the Asian summer monsoon. The longitudinal gradient of ENSO-like SST anomalies induces a more complicated pattern of the tropospheric temperature anomalies. First, the positive (negative) longitudinal gradient induced by the El Nino (La Nina)-like SST anomalies weakens (strengthens) the Walker circulation and the circulation between South Asia and northern Africa and therefore the intensity of the Asian summer monsoon, while the corresponding monsoon rainbelt extends northward (southward). The El Nino (La Nina)-like SST anomalies also induces colder (warmer) tropospheric temperature

  4. Late Holocene (~ 2 ka) East Asian Monsoon variations inferred from river discharge and climate interrelationships in the Pearl River Estuary

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Nan, Q.; Li, T.; Chen, J.; Nigam, R.

    -size distributions, TOC contents, and δ13Corg variations appear to be directly related to monsoon precipitation in the sediment source area. An increased East Asian summer monsoon rainfall (EASM) and/or an enhanced East Asian winter monsoon rainfall could...

  5. Dynamics of monthly rainfall-runoff process at the Gota basin: A search for chaos

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sivakumar, B.; Berndtsson, R.; Olsson, J.; Jinno, K.; Kawamura, A.

    Sivakumar et al. (2000a), by employing the correlation dimension method, provided preliminary evidence of the existence of chaos in the monthly rainfall-runoff process at the Gota basin in Sweden. The present study verifies and supports the earlier results and strengthens such evidence. The study analyses the monthly rainfall, runoff and runoff coefficient series using the nonlinear prediction method, and the presence of chaos is investigated through an inverse approach, i.e. identifying chaos from the results of the prediction. The presence of an optimal embedding dimension (the embedding dimension with the best prediction accuracy) for each of the three series indicates the existence of chaos in the rainfall-runoff process, providing additional support to the results obtained using the correlation dimension method. The reasonably good predictions achieved, particularly for the runoff series, suggest that the dynamics of the rainfall-runoff process could be understood from a chaotic perspective. The predictions are also consistent with the correlation dimension results obtained in the earlier study, i.e. higher prediction accuracy for series with a lower dimension and vice-versa, so that the correlation dimension method can indeed be used as a preliminary indicator of chaos. However, the optimal embedding dimensions obtained from the prediction method are considerably less than the minimum dimensions essential to embed the attractor, as obtained by the correlation dimension method. A possible explanation for this could be the presence of noise in the series, since the effects of noise at higher embedding dimensions could be significantly greater than that at lower embedding dimensions.

  6. The role of potential vorticity anomalies in the Somali Jet on Indian Summer Monsoon Intraseasonal Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rai, P.; Joshi, M.; Dimri, A. P.; Turner, A. G.

    2017-08-01

    The climate of the Indian subcontinent is dominated by rainfall arising from the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) during June to September. Intraseasonal variability during the monsoon is characterized by periods of heavy rainfall interspersed by drier periods, known as active and break events respectively. Understanding and predicting such events is of vital importance for forecasting human impacts such as water resources. The Somali Jet is a key regional feature of the monsoon circulation. In the present study, we find that the spatial structure of Somali Jet potential vorticity (PV) anomalies varies considerably during active and break periods. Analysis of these anomalies shows a mechanism whereby sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies propagate north/northwestwards through the Arabian Sea, caused by a positive feedback loop joining anomalies in SST, convection, modification of PV by diabatic heating and mixing in the atmospheric boundary layer, wind-stress curl, and ocean upwelling processes. The feedback mechanism is consistent with observed variability in the coupled ocean-atmosphere system on timescales of approximately 20 days. This research suggests that better understanding and prediction of monsoon intraseasonal variability in the South Asian monsoon may be gained by analysis of the day-to-day dynamical evolution of PV in the Somali Jet.

  7. Rare earth elements tracing the soil erosion processes on slope surface under natural rainfall.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Mingyong; Tan, Shuduan; Dang, Haishan; Zhang, Quanfa

    2011-12-01

    A field experiment using rare earth elements (REEs) as tracers was conducted to investigate soil erosion processes on slope surfaces during rainfall events. A plot of 10m×2m×0.16m with a gradient of 20° (36.4%) was established and the plot was divided into two layers and four segments. Various REE tracers were applied to the different layers and segments to determine sediment dynamics under natural rainfall. Results indicated that sheet erosion accounted for more than 90% of total erosion when the rainfall amount and density was not large enough to generate concentrated flows. Sediment source changed in different sections on the slope surface, and the primary sediment source area tended to move upslope as erosion progressed. In rill erosion, sediment discharge mainly originated from the toe-slope and moved upwards as erosion intensified. The results obtained from this study suggest that multi-REE tracer technique is valuable in understanding the erosion processes and determining sediment sources.

  8. Monsoon Country

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2008-01-01

    Heavy rains have battered areas of south China this year,causing death and destruction For most areas south of the Yangtze River,this year’s monsoon season has come early, with heavy rains triggering floods,damaging crops,threatening reservoirs and causing deaths.

  9. Contemporary processes of environmental information in the atmosphere-glacier-runoff system in an area of typical monsoon temperate glacier

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    何元庆; 姚檀栋; 张晓君; 陈拓; 杨梅学; 孙维贞; 李凤霞

    2001-01-01

    Sampling was carried out at Baishui No.1, the largest glacier on Mt. Yulong, China, during the summers of 1999 and 2000, to investigate the spatial variations of oxygen isotopes in the atmosphere-glacier-river system. The results confirm that there is an inverse relation between the oxygen isotopic composition of precipitation and air temperature/precipitation amount. This suggests that a strong "precipitation amount effect" exists in this typical monsoon temperate-glacier region. There are marked differences of the δ18O values of winter-accumulated snow, glacial meltwater, summer precipitation and the glacier-fed river water. Spatial and temporal variations of isotopic composition are controlled by climatic conditions. Isotopic fractionation and differentiation occur during phase changes, snow-to-ice and ice-to-meltwater transformations, and runoff processes. Variations of stable isotopes in glacier runoff can indicate variations of sources of supply, as well as different discharge-related processes. I

  10. Process-based characterization of evapotranspiration sources over the North American monsoon region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bohn, Theodore J.; Vivoni, Enrique R.

    2016-01-01

    Evapotranspiration (ET) is a poorly constrained flux in the North American monsoon (NAM) region, leading to potential errors in land-atmosphere feedbacks. We quantified the spatiotemporal variations of ET using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, modified to account for soil evaporation (Esoil), irrigated agriculture, and the variability of land surface properties derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer during 2000-2012. Simulated ET patterns were compared to field observations at 59 eddy covariance towers, water balance estimates in nine basins, and six available gridded ET products. The modified VIC model performed well at eddy covariance towers representing the natural and agricultural land covers in the region. Simulations revealed that major sources of ET were forested mountain areas during the summer season and irrigated croplands at peak times of growth in the winter and summer, accounting for 22% and 9% of the annual ET, respectively. Over the NAM region, Esoil was the largest component (60%) of annual ET, followed by plant transpiration (T, 32%) and evaporation of canopy interception (8%). Esoil and T displayed different relationships with P in natural land covers, with Esoil tending to peak earlier than T by up to 1 month, while only a weak correlation between ET and P was found in irrigated croplands. Based on the model performance, the VIC-based estimates are the most realistic to date for this region. Furthermore, spatiotemporal patterns reveal new information on the magnitudes, locations, and timing of ET in the North American monsoon region with implications on land-atmosphere feedbacks.

  11. Indoor imitation experimental study on driving factors of rainfall-runoff process

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHANG Shifeng; LIU Changming; XIA Jun; TAN Ge; LI Lin; LIU Caitang; ZHOU Changqing; GUO Lei

    2005-01-01

    The driving actions of rainfall-runoff process can be attributed to two aspects. The first is the influence of precipitation process, and the second is that of the ground pad. The research results of 179 indoor experiments conducted to imitate rainfall-runoff process indicate that both precipitation duration and intensity play important roles in affecting confluence lag time,which is obviously inconsistent with the traditional hypotheses. The nonlinear relationship is of great significance to the confluence curve especially when the precipitation duration is less than the total confluence time or the precipitation intensity is small. Therefore it can be concluded that the unit hydrograph (UH) can be applied to rainfall-runoff process imitation in the humid areas in the south China region. However, the UH application should be strictly modified in accordance with precipitation conditions in the arid and semiarid region of north China where the precipitation duration is short and the intensity is unstable. It will be hard to get ideal imitation results if the UH is applied blindly without considering specific conditions in the north China region. This also explains the unsatisfactory imitation results caused by using various hydrological models in the north China region. When the precipitation duration is short, and the watershed has not reached total watershed concentration, the characteristics of confluence change greatly, which reflects the actual situation in the north China region. Therefore necessary nonlinear corrections should be made when UH is applied. If the duration is longer than the total confluence time and the balance between pondage and discharge is stricken, the imitation research results will be applicable to both rainfall-runoff relation with longer duration in the south China region and the basic theoretical research on runoff generation and concentration. On conditions of adequate rainfall, peak discharge is in linear relationship with intensity

  12. [Runoff and sediment yielding processes on red soil engineering accumulation containing gravels by a simulated rainfall experiment].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Qian-hua; Wang, Wen-long; Guo, Ming-ming; Bai, Yun; Deng, Li-qiang; Li, Jian-ming; Li, Yao-lin

    2015-09-01

    Engineering accumulation formed in production and construction projects is characterized by unique structure and complex material composition. Characteristics of soil erosion on the engineering accumulation significantly differ from those on farmland. An artificially simulated rainfall experiment was carried out to investigate the effects of rainfall intensity on the processes of runoff and sediment yielding on the engineering accumulation of different gravel contents (0%, 10%, 20% and 30%) in red soil regions. Results showed that the initial time of runoff generation decreased with increases in rainfall intensity and gravel content, the decreased amplitudes being about 48.5%-77.9% and 4.2%-34.2%, respectively. The initial time was found to be a power function of rainfall intensity. Both runoff velocity and runoff rate manifested a trend of first rising and then in a steady state with runoff duration. Rainfall intensity was found to be the main factor influencing runoff velocity and runoff rate, whereas the influence of gravel content was not significant. About 10% of gravel content was determined to be a critical value in the influence of gravel content on runoff volume. For the underlying surface of 10% gravel content, the runoff volume was least at rainfall intensity of 1.0 mm · min(-1) and maximum at rainfall intensity of greater than 1.0 mm · min(-1). The runoff volume in- creased 10%-60% with increase in rainfall intensity. Sediment concentration showed a sharp decline in first 6 min and then in a stable state in rest of time. Influence of rainfall intensity on sediment concentration decreased as gravel content increased. Gravels could reduce sediment yield significantly at rainfall intensity of greater than 1.0 mm · min(-1). Sediment yield was found to be a linear function of rainfall intensity and gravel content.

  13. Imaging Rainfall Infiltration Processes with the Time-Lapse Electrical Resistivity Imaging Method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Gang; Zhang, Gui-Bin; Chen, Chien-chih; Chang, Ping-Yu; Wang, Tzu-Pin; Yen, Horng-Yuan; Dong, Jia-Jyun; Ni, Chuen-Fa; Chen, Su-Chin; Chen, Chao-Wei; Jia, Zheng-yuan

    2016-06-01

    Electrical Resistivity Imaging (ERI) was carried out continuously for 10 days to map the subsurface resistivity distribution along a potentially hazardous hillslope at the Jieshou Junior High School in Taoyuan, Taiwan. The reliability of the inverted resistivity structures down to about 25 m depth was examined with synthetic modeling using the same electrode arrangements installed on land surface as in field surveys, together with a DOI (depth-of-investigation) index calculated from the ERI data. The subsurface resistivity distribution is consistent with results from well logging. These ERI recordings were taken daily and provided highly resolved imagery of the resistivity distribution underground and illustrated the dynamical fluid-flow behavior due to heavy rainfall infiltration. Using Archie's law, the resistivity distribution was transformed into a map of relative water saturation (RWS), which is strongly correlated with the rainfall infiltration process. We then found that the averaged RWS is significantly correlated with daily precipitation. Our observations indicate that time-lapse ERI is effective in monitoring subterraneous rainfall infiltration; moreover, the preferential flow paths can be delineated according to the changes in averaged RWS derived from the ERI data.

  14. Transport mechanisms of soil-bound mercury in the erosion process during rainfall-runoff events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Yi; Luo, Xiaolin; Zhang, Wei; Wu, Xin; Zhang, Juan; Han, Feng

    2016-08-01

    Soil contamination by mercury (Hg) is a global environmental issue. In watersheds with a significant soil Hg storage, soil erosion during rainfall-runoff events can result in nonpoint source (NPS) Hg pollution and therefore, can extend its environmental risk from soils to aquatic ecosystems. Nonetheless, transport mechanisms of soil-bound Hg in the erosion process have not been explored directly, and how different fractions of soil organic matter (SOM) impact transport is not fully understood. This study investigated transport mechanisms based on rainfall-runoff simulation experiments. The experiments simulated high-intensity and long-duration rainfall conditions, which can produce significant soil erosion and NPS pollution. The enrichment ratio (ER) of total mercury (THg) was the key variable in exploring the mechanisms. The main study findings include the following: First, the ER-sediment flux relationship for Hg depends on soil composition, and no uniform ER-sediment flux function exists for different soils. Second, depending on soil composition, significantly more Hg could be released from a less polluted soil in the early stage of large rainfall events. Third, the heavy fraction of SOM (i.e., the remnant organic matter coating on mineral particles) has a dominant influence on the enrichment behavior and transport mechanisms of Hg, while clay mineral content exhibits a significant, but indirect, influence. The study results imply that it is critical to quantify the SOM composition in addition to total organic carbon (TOC) for different soils in the watershed to adequately model the NPS pollution of Hg and spatially prioritize management actions in a heterogeneous watershed.

  15. Adaptability of Irrigation to a Changing Monsoon in India: How far can we go?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaveri, E.; Grogan, D. S.; Fisher-Vanden, K.; Frolking, S. E.; Wrenn, D. H.; Nicholas, R.

    2014-12-01

    Agriculture and the monsoon are inextricably linked in India. A large part of the steady rise in agricultural production since the onset of the Green Revolution in the 1960's has been attributed to irrigation. Irrigation is used to supplement and buffer crops against precipitation shocks, but water availability for such use is itself sensitive to the erratic, seasonal and spatially heterogeneous nature of the monsoon. We provide new evidence on the relationship between monsoon changes, irrigation variability and water availability by linking a process based hydrology model with an econometric model for one of the world's most water stressed countries. India uses more groundwater for irrigation than any other country, and there is substantial evidence that this has led to depletion of groundwater aquifers. First, we build an econometric model of historical irrigation decisions using detailed agriculture and weather data spanning 35 years. Multivariate regression models reveal that for crops grown in the wet season, irrigation is sensitive to distribution and total monsoon rainfall but not to ground or surface water availability. For crops grown in the dry season, total monsoon rainfall matters most, and its effect is sensitive to groundwater availability. The historical estimates from the econometric model are used to calculate future irrigated areas under three different climate model predictions of monsoon climate for the years 2010 - 2050. These projections are then used as input to a physical hydrology model, which quantifies supply of irrigation water from sustainable sources such as rechargeable shallow groundwater, rivers and reservoirs, to unsustainable sources such as non- rechargeable groundwater. We find that the significant variation in monsoon projections lead to very different results. Crops grown in the dry season show particularly divergent trends between model projections, leading to very different groundwater resource requirements.

  16. Indian summer monsoon rainfall characteristics during contrasting monsoon years.

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Varikoden, H.; RameshKumar, M.R.; Babu, C.A.

    , Vinayachandran P, and Yamagata T, 1999. A dipole mode in the tropical Indian Ocean, Nature, 401 , 360–363. Shepard D, 1968. A two-dimensional interpolation function for irregularly- spaced data, in Proceedings of the 1968 23rd ACM National Conference, pp. 517...

  17. Monsoon onset over Kerala and pre monsoon rainfall peak

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    RameshKumar, M.R.; Shenoi, S.S.C.; Shankar, D.

    In the present study the pentad Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) estimate have been used, which is a blended product of microwave, infrared and in-situ gauge data for the region bounded by 8 degrees - 13 degrees N; 70 degrees - 95...

  18. Summer cooling in the east central Arabian Sea - a process of dynamic response to the southwest monsoon

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    RameshBabu, V.; Sastry, J.S.

    The cooling of the east central Arabian Sea during summer monsoon season is examined using data sets of MONEX '79 and MONSOON '77 programmes. These studies have revealed that downward transfer of heat due to the mixing of warm surface and cold sub...

  19. Post-processing GCM daily rainfall and temperature forecasts for applications in water management and agriculture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schepen, Andrew; Wang, Qj; Everingham, Yvette; Zhao, Tongtiegang

    2017-04-01

    Ensemble time series forecasts of rainfall and temperature up to six months ahead are sought for applications in water management and agricultural production. Raw GCM forecasts are generally not suitable for direct use in hydrological models or agricultural production simulators and must be post-processed first, to ensure they are reliable, as skilful as possible, and have realistic temporal patterns. In this study, we test two post-processing approaches to produce daily forecasts for cropping regions and water supply catchments in Australia. In the first approach, we apply the calibration, bridging and merging (CBaM) method to produce statistically reliable monthly forecasts based on GCM outputs of rainfall, temperature and sea surface temperatures. We then disaggregate the monthly forecasts to obtain realistic daily time series forecasts that can be used as inputs to crop and hydrological models. In the second approach, we develop a method for directly post-processing daily GCM forecasts using a Bayesian joint probability (BJP) model. We demonstrate and evaluate the two approaches through a case study for the Tully sugar region in north-eastern Australia. The daily post-processed forecasts will benefit applications in streamflow forecasting and crop yield forecasting.

  20. A geomorphology-based ANFIS model for multi-station modeling of rainfall-runoff process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nourani, Vahid; Komasi, Mehdi

    2013-05-01

    This paper demonstrates the potential use of Artificial Intelligence (AI) techniques for predicting daily runoff at multiple gauging stations. Uncertainty and complexity of the rainfall-runoff process due to its variability in space and time in one hand and lack of historical data on the other hand, cause difficulties in the spatiotemporal modeling of the process. In this paper, an Integrated Geomorphological Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (IGANFIS) model conjugated with C-means clustering algorithm was used for rainfall-runoff modeling at multiple stations of the Eel River watershed, California. The proposed model could be used for predicting runoff in the stations with lack of data or any sub-basin within the watershed because of employing the spatial and temporal variables of the sub-basins as the model inputs. This ability of the integrated model for spatiotemporal modeling of the process was examined through the cross validation technique for a station. In this way, different ANFIS structures were trained using Sugeno algorithm in order to estimate daily discharge values at different stations. In order to improve the model efficiency, the input data were then classified into some clusters by the means of fuzzy C-means (FCMs) method. The goodness-of-fit measures support the gainful use of the IGANFIS and FCM methods in spatiotemporal modeling of hydrological processes.

  1. Evaporation over the Arabian Sea during two contrasting monsoons

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    RameshKumar, M.R.; Sadhuram, Y.

    monsoon rainfall. It is noticed that in general, the sea surface temperatures are higher in 1983 throughout the monsoon season than in 1979 in the Arabian Sea excepting western region. The mean rates of evaporation on a seasonal scale are found to be equal...

  2. Impact of land surface conditions on the predictability of hydrologic processes and mountain-valley circulations in the North American Monsoon region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiang, T.; Vivoni, E. R.; Gochis, D. J.; Mascaro, G.

    2015-12-01

    Heterogeneous land surface conditions are essential components of land-atmosphere interactions in regions of complex terrain and have the potential to affect convective precipitation formation. Yet, due to their high complexity, hydrologic processes over mountainous regions are not well understood, and are usually parameterized in simple ways within coupled land-atmosphere modeling frameworks. With the improving model physics and spatial resolution of numerical weather prediction models, there is an urgent need to understand how land surface processes affect local and regional meteorological processes. In the North American Monsoon (NAM) region, the summer rainy season is accompanied by a dramatic greening of mountain ecosystems that adds spatiotemporal variability in vegetation which is anticipated to impact the conditions leading to convection, mountain-valley circulations and mesoscale organization. In this study, we present results from a detailed analysis of a high-resolution (1 km) land surface model, Noah-MP, in a large, mountainous watershed of the NAM region - the Rio Sonora (21,264 km2) in Mexico. In addition to capturing the spatial variations in terrain and soil distributions, recently-developed features in Noah-MP allow the model to read time-varying vegetation parameters derived from remotely-sensed vegetation indices; however, this new implementation has not been fully evaluated. Therefore, we assess the simulated spatiotemporal fields of soil moisture, surface temperature and surface energy fluxes through comparisons to remote sensing products and results from coarser land surface models obtained from the North American Land Data Assimilation System. We focus attention on the impact of vegetation changes along different elevation bands on the diurnal cycle of surface energy fluxes to provide a baseline for future analyses of mountain-valley circulations using a coupled land-atmosphere modeling system. Our study also compares limited streamflow

  3. Stable Isotopes Indicate Within-Canopy Processes During Interception of Rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, S. T.; Keim, R.; Barnard, H. R.; Brooks, J. R.; McDonnell, J.

    2015-12-01

    Stable isotopes of water have been used to gain process-level understand of mixing, storage, and transport in all components of the hydrological cycle. Canopy interception processes remain some of the least understood because of the relatively small storage pool, rapid turnover, and variability at short intervals relative to, for example, soils. Stable isotopes provide a look into the 'black box' of canopy processes that control interception storage and throughfall generation. Several recent studies have compared throughfall isotopic composition to open rainfall; canopy effects vary in direction and magnitude but are ubiquitous. We present findings from three studies using isotopes of throughfall. In all cases, common patterns and persistence of patterns in variability of throughfall amount (e.g., correlation with canopy characteristics, correlations with precipitation characteristics, and geostatistical relationships) were infrequently apparent for isotopic composition. Data consistently support the so called 'selection' effect, that throughfall composition is a product of spatially and temporally varying transmission of rainfall that has temporally varying isotopic composition. There is little evidence of isotopic fractionation by wet-canopy evaporation. Additionally, isotopic composition of storm-total throughfall is generally less variable than is amount or solute content, suggesting two possibilities: (1) high spatial homogeneity in the selection effect, or (2) rapid exchange and equilibration of droplets with vapor in the canopy airspace, lending support to the hypothesized role of splash droplet evaporation. These results suggest a need to re-examine conceptual models of the progression from interception to evaporation and throughfall generation.

  4. Changing Rainfall and its Impact on Landslides in Sri Lanka

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Uditha Ratnayake; Srikantha Herath

    2005-01-01

    During the recent past the rainfall pattern in Sri Lanka has shown a noticeable change. This paper describes the effect of this change on the occurrence of landslides and their impacts to eco systems. This study shows that most of the landslides occurring in Sri Lanka during northeast monsoons,southwest monsoons and second inter-monsoon were located in three distinctively separated areas. Analysis of rainfall time series shows a trend of increased lengths of dry periods along with an increasing trend of rainfall intensity, especially after the late seventies.A strong relation is obtained between the location of landslides and the spatial distribution of areas where rainfall intensity is increased.

  5. Impacts of Land Process on the Onset and Evolution of Asian Summer Monsoon in the NCEP Climate Forecast System

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Song YANG; WEN Min; Rongqian YANG; Wayne HIGGINS; ZHANG Renhe

    2011-01-01

    Impacts of land models and initial land conditions (ICs) on the Asian summer monsoon,especially its onset,were investigated using the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS).Two land models,the Oregon State University (OSU) land model and the NCEP,OSU,Air Force,and Hydrologic Research Laboratory (Noah) land model,were used to get parallel experiments.The experiments also used land ICs from the NCEP/Department of Energy (DOE) Global Reanalysis 2 (GR2) and the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS).Previous studies have demonstrated that,a systematic weak bias appears in the modeled monsoon,and this bias may be related to a cold bias over the Asian land mass.Results of the current study show that replacement of the OSU land model by the Noah land model improved the model's cold bias and produced improved monsoon precipitation and circulation patterns.The CFS predicted monsoon with greater proficiency in El Ni(n)o years,compared to La Ni(n)a years,and the Noah model performed better than the OSU model in monsoon predictions for individual years.These improvements occurred not only in relation to monsoon onset in late spring but also to monsoon intensity in summer.Our analysis of the monsoon features over the India peninsula,the Indo-China peninsula,and the South Chinese Sea indicates different degrees of improvement.Furthermore,a change in the land models led to more remarkable improvement in monsoon prediction than did a change from the GR2 land ICs to the GLDAS land ICs.

  6. On the role of convective systems over the northwest Pacific and monsoon activity over the Indian subcontinent

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    RameshKumar, M.R.; Babu, A.K.; Reason, C.

    .e. years with well below average rainfall) as compared to excess monsoon years (years with well above average rainfall). Based on these previously found associations involving various characteristics of convective activity in the region, this study seeks... and also on the quantum of monsoon rainfall for several contrasting monsoon years. 2. Data Data for convective systems in the northwest Pacific Ocean (NWP) were acquired from the UNISYS website (http://weather.unisys.com) and originate from the Joint...

  7. Analysis of seasonal and annual rainfall trends in the northern region of Bangladesh

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bari, Sheikh Hefzul; Rahman, M. Tauhid Ur; Hoque, Muhammad Azizul; Hussain, Md. Manjurul

    2016-07-01

    The aim of the present study was to investigate 50 years (1964-2013) of seasonal and annual rainfall trends and their fluctuation over time in northern Bangladesh. After testing the autocorrelation, non-parametric Mann-Kendall test along with Sen Slope estimator was used to examine rainfall trends and their magnitudes. The sequential Mann-Kendall test was used to identify any fluctuations in the trends over time and to detect the possible points of change in the rainfall series. We found that pre-monsoon and post-monsoon rainfall is increasing in most of the rainfall stations. The only decrement in pre-monsoon rainfall was found for Ishurdi (1.28 mm/year). However, the sequential Mann-Kendall test detected decreasing pre-monsoon rainfall trend after early the 1990s. Monsoon rainfall showed a decreasing trend in the majority of the area studied. The maximum decrement in monsoon rainfall was found for Sylhet station (8.10 mm/year) and minimum in Mymensingh (1.53 mm/year). An upward monsoon rainfall trend was found for Rangpur (2.02 mm/year). Annual rainfall followed the monsoon rainfall trend. However, all of the positive and negative trends were found statistically non-significant at 95% confidence limit with the only exception for monsoon and annual rainfall at Rajshahi station. Rajshahi station was the only region where the monsoon and annual rainfall has a significant negative trend at 95% confidence limit. The sequential Mann-Kendall test detected several non-significant points of change for seasonal and annual rainfall at most of the stations. Periodic fluctuations were also detected. We observed that there were decreasing seasonal rainfall trend after early the 1990s for the majority of the stations.

  8. Active and break events of Indian summer monsoon during 1901-2014

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Pai, D.S.; Sridhar, L.; RameshKumar, M.R.

    The study lists active and break monsoon events over India over a very long period (1901-2014) identified using criteria based on a rainfall index derived over a critical high rainfall region called core monsoon zone. The break and active spells...

  9. Foraminifera and changing pattern of monsoon rainfall

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Nigam, R.

    The palaeomonsoonal history can be reconstructed utilizing climatically sensitive properties of marine microorganisms; foraminifera. The results show a major boundary at 3500 years B.P. and periods of rather low precipitation approximately at 420...

  10. Describing rainfall in northern Australia using multiple climate indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilks Rogers, Cassandra Denise; Beringer, Jason

    2017-02-01

    Savanna landscapes are globally extensive and highly sensitive to climate change, yet the physical processes and climate phenomena which affect them remain poorly understood and therefore poorly represented in climate models. Both human populations and natural ecosystems are highly susceptible to precipitation variation in these regions due to the effects on water and food availability and atmosphere-biosphere energy fluxes. Here we quantify the relationship between climate phenomena and historical rainfall variability in Australian savannas and, in particular, how these relationships changed across a strong rainfall gradient, namely the North Australian Tropical Transect (NATT). Climate phenomena were described by 16 relevant climate indices and correlated against precipitation from 1900 to 2010 to determine the relative importance of each climate index on seasonal, annual and decadal timescales. Precipitation trends, climate index trends and wet season characteristics have also been investigated using linear statistical methods. In general, climate index-rainfall correlations were stronger in the north of the NATT where annual rainfall variability was lower and a high proportion of rainfall fell during the wet season. This is consistent with a decreased influence of the Indian-Australian monsoon from the north to the south. Seasonal variation was most strongly correlated with the Australian Monsoon Index, whereas yearly variability was related to a greater number of climate indices, predominately the Tasman Sea and Indonesian sea surface temperature indices (both of which experienced a linear increase over the duration of the study) and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation indices. These findings highlight the importance of understanding the climatic processes driving variability and, subsequently, the importance of understanding the relationships between rainfall and climatic phenomena in the Northern Territory in order to project future rainfall patterns in the

  11. An Analysis of the Characteristics of Monsoon Onset over the Bay of Bengal and the South China Sea in 2010

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    DING Xuan-Ru; WANG Dong-Xiao; LI Wei-Biao; GUAN Zhao-Yong

    2012-01-01

    Based on NCEP/NCAR daily reanalysis and the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission data, the back- ground atmospheric circulation and the characteristics of meteorological elements during the period of the Bay of Bengal monsoon (BOBM) and the South China Sea (SCS) monsoon (SCSM) in 2010 are studied. The impacts of the BOBM onset on the SCSM onset and the relationship between the two monsoons are also analyzed. The two main results are as follows: (l) The BOBM onset obvi- ously occurs earlier than the SCSM onset in 2010, which is a typical onset process of the Asian monsoon. During the BOBM's onset, northward jump, and eastward expansion, convective precipitation and southwest winds occurred over the SCS, which resulted in the onset of the SCSM. (2) The relationship among strong convection, heavy rainfall, and vertical circulation configuration is obtained during the monsoon onsets over the BOB and SCS, and it is concluded that the South Asian High plays an important role in this period.

  12. Dominant cloud microphysical processes of a torrential rainfall event in Sichuan, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Yongjie; Cui, Xiaopeng

    2015-03-01

    High-resolution numerical simulation data of a rainstorm triggering debris flow in Sichuan Province of China simulated by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model were used to study the dominant cloud microphysical processes of the torrential rainfall. The results showed that: (1) In the strong precipitation period, particle sizes of all hydrometeors increased, and mean-mass diameters of graupel increased the most significantly, as compared with those in the weak precipitation period; (2) The terminal velocity of raindrops was the strongest among all hydrometeors, followed by graupel's, which was much smaller than that of raindrops. Differences between various hydrometeors' terminal velocities in the strong precipitation period were larger than those in the weak precipitation period, which favored relative motion, collection interaction and transformation between the particles. Absolute terminal velocity values of raindrops and graupel were significantly greater than those of air upward velocity, and the stronger the precipitation was, the greater the differences between them were; (3) The orders of magnitudes of the various hydrometeors' sources and sinks in the strong precipitation period were larger than those in the weak precipitation period, causing a difference in the intensity of precipitation. Water vapor, cloud water, raindrops, graupel and their exchange processes played a major role in the production of the torrential rainfall, and there were two main processes via which raindrops were generated: abundant water vapor condensed into cloud water and, on the one hand, accretion of cloud water by rain water formed rain water, while on the other hand, accretion of cloud water by graupel formed graupel, and then the melting of graupel formed rain water.

  13. Asian monsoons in a late Eocene greenhouse world

    Science.gov (United States)

    Licht, A.; van Cappelle, M.; Abels, H. A.; Ladant, J.-B.; Trabucho-Alexandre, J.; France-Lanord, C.; Donnadieu, Y.; Vandenberghe, J.; Rigaudier, T.; Lécuyer, C.; Terry, D., Jr.; Adriaens, R.; Boura, A.; Guo, Z.; Soe, Aung Naing; Quade, J.; Dupont-Nivet, G.; Jaeger, J.-J.

    2014-09-01

    The strong present-day Asian monsoons are thought to have originated between 25 and 22 million years (Myr) ago, driven by Tibetan-Himalayan uplift. However, the existence of older Asian monsoons and their response to enhanced greenhouse conditions such as those in the Eocene period (55-34 Myr ago) are unknown because of the paucity of well-dated records. Here we show late Eocene climate records revealing marked monsoon-like patterns in rainfall and wind south and north of the Tibetan-Himalayan orogen. This is indicated by low oxygen isotope values with strong seasonality in gastropod shells and mammal teeth from Myanmar, and by aeolian dust deposition in northwest China. Our climate simulations support modern-like Eocene monsoonal rainfall and show that a reinforced hydrological cycle responding to enhanced greenhouse conditions counterbalanced the negative effect of lower Tibetan relief on precipitation. These strong monsoons later weakened with the global shift to icehouse conditions 34 Myr ago.

  14. New approaches for rainfall ensemble post-processing with a focus on extreme and rare events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taillardat, Maxime; Mestre, Olivier; Fougères, Anne-Laure; Naveau, Philippe

    2017-04-01

    Ensemble forecasts of rainfall are very important for decision making such as storm warnings or flood risk downstream watersheds. We present a statistical post-processing method based on an extension of Quantile Regression Forests (QRF) for heavy-tailed distributions. Our proposed method is applied to daily 51-h forecasts of 6-h accumulated precipitation from 2012 to 2015 over France using the Météo-France ensemble prediction system called PEARP. It provides calibrated predictive distributions and competes favourably with methods like Analog method or EMOS, which we try to improve using some new predictors and distributions derived from hydrology. We also discuss about evaluation of ensemble forecasts for extreme and rare events. Our goal is to improve drastically ensemble quality for these events subject to a good overall performance.

  15. Effects of wildfire, rainfall and region on desert lizard assemblages: the importance of multi-scale processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pastro, Louise A; Dickman, Christopher R; Letnic, Mike

    2013-10-01

    Vertebrate populations are influenced by environmental processes that operate at a range of spatial and temporal scales. Wildfire is a disturbance that can affect vertebrate populations across large spatial scales, although vertebrate responses are frequently influenced by processes operating at smaller spatial scales such as topography, interspecific interactions and regional history. Here, we investigate the effects of a broad-scale wildfire on lizard assemblages in a desert region. We predicted that a rainfall gradient within the region affected by the wildfire would influence lizard responses to the fire by encouraging post-fire succession to proceed more rapidly in high-rainfall areas, and would be enabled in turn by more rapid vegetation recovery. To test our prediction, we censused lizards, measured rainfall, undertook vegetation surveys and sampled invertebrate abundance across burnt and unburnt habitat ecotones within three regional areas situated along a gradient of long-term annual rainfall. Lizard diversity was not affected by fire or region and lizard abundance was influenced only by region. Lizard assemblage composition was also only influenced by region, but this did not relate to differences in rainfall or habitat as we had predicted. Regional differences in lizard assemblages related instead to food availability. The observed differences also likely reflected regional differences in the strength of biotic interactions with predators and changes in land use. Our study shows that assemblage responses to a disturbance were not uniform within a large desert region and instead were influenced by other environmental processes operating simultaneously at multiple temporal and spatial scales.

  16. Future projection of mean and variability of the Asian Summer Monsoon and Indian Ocean Climate systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Annamalai, H [IPRC, University of Hawaii

    2014-09-15

    The overall goal of this project is to assess the ability of the CMIP3/5 models to simulate the Indian-Ocean monsoon systems. The PI along with post-docs investigated research issues ranging from synoptic systems to long-term trends over the Asian monsoon region. The PI applied diagnostic tools such as moist static energy (MSE) to isolate: the moist and radiative processes responsible for extended monsoon breaks over South Asia, precursors in the ENSO-monsoon association, reasons for the drying tendency over South Asia and the possible effect on tropical Indian Ocean climate anomalies influencing certain aspects of ENSO characteristics. By diagnosing various observations and coupled model simulations, we developed working hypothesis and tested them by carrying out sensitivity experiments with both linear and nonlinear models. Possible physical and dynamical reasons for model sensitivities were deduced. On the teleconnection front, the ability of CMIP5 models in representing the monsoon-desert mechanism was examined recently. Further more, we have applied a suite of diagnostics and have performed an in depth analysis on CMIP5 integrations to isolate the possible reasons for the ENSO-monsoon linkage or lack thereof. The PI has collaborated with Dr. K.R. Sperber of PCMDI and other CLIVAR Asian-Australian monsoon panel members in understanding the ability of CMIP3/5 models in capturing monsoon and its spectrum of variability. The objective and process-based diagnostics aided in selecting models that best represent the present-day monsoon and its variability that are then employed for future projections. Two major highlights were an invitation to write a review on present understanding monsoons in a changing climate in Nature Climate Change, and identification of an east-west shift in observed monsoon rainfall (more rainfall over tropical western Pacific and drying tendency over South Asia) in the last six decades and attributing that shift to SST rise over the tropical

  17. On breaks of the Indian monsoon

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Sulochana Gadgil; P V Joseph

    2003-12-01

    For over a century, the term break has been used for spells in which the rainfall over the Indian monsoon zone is interrupted. The phenomenon of `break monsoon' is of great interest because long intense breaks are often associated with poor monsoon seasons. Such breaks have distinct circulation characteristics (heat trough type circulation) and have a large impact on rainfed agriculture.Although interruption of the monsoon rainfall is considered to be the most important feature of the break monsoon, traditionally breaks have been identified on the basis of the surface pressure and wind patterns over the Indian region. We have defined breaks (and active spells) on the basis of rainfall over the monsoon zone. The rainfall criteria are chosen so as to ensure a large overlap with the traditional breaks documented by Ramamurthy (1969) and De et al (1998). We have identified these rainbreaks for 1901-89. We have also identified active spells on the basis of rainfall over the Indian monsoon zone. We have shown that the all-India summer monsoon rainfall is significantly negatively correlated with the number of rainbreak days (correlation coefficient −0.56) and significantly positively correlated with the number of active days (correlation coefficient 0.47).Thus the interannual variation of the all-India summer monsoon rainfall is shown to be related to the number of days of rainbreaks and active spells identified here. There have been several studies of breaks (and also active spells in several cases) identified on the basis of different criteria over regions differing in spatial scales (e.g., Webster et al 1998; Krishnan et al 2000; Goswami and Mohan 2000; and Annamalai and Slingo 2001). We find that there is considerable overlap between the rainbreaks we have identified and breaks based on the traditional definition. There is some overlap with the breaks identified by Krishnan et al (2000) but little overlap with breaks identified by Webster et al (1998). Further

  18. Effect of the summer monsoon on aerosols at two measurement stations in Northern India – Part 1: PM and BC concentrations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A.-P. Hyvärinen

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Particulate matter (PM and black carbon (BC concentrations were measured at two locations in Northern India during 2006–2010. The first measurement station is a background site in Mukteshwar, about 350 km northeast of New Delhi, in the foothills of the Indian Himalayas. The second measurement site was located in Gual Pahari, about 25 km south of New Delhi. Here we focused on resolving the effects of the Indian summer monsoon on the particulate matter and black carbon concentrations at the two stations. The average monsoon time concentrations were decreased by 55–70% compared to the pre-monsoon average concentrations at both stations, having a linear relationship with the total local rainfall during the monsoon season. In Mukteshwar during the monsoon, the 24 h PM2.5 concentrations were always below the Indian National Air Quality Standard of 60 μgm−3. In Gual Pahari, 13% of days exceeded this level during the monsoon season. However, the 24 h guideline of 25 μgm−3 given by the World Health Organization was more difficult to meet. In addition to loss processes, aerosol concentrations during the early monsoon were found to be affected by primary emissions, most likely dust event from the Thar Desert. This resulted in elevated fractions of the coarse mode, PM2.5−10 at both stations. In Mukteshwar, additional dust contribution came from the arid regions on the southern slopes of Himalayas. We also determined the characteristic transition times between the pre-monsoon, monsoon and post-monsoon. The onset and withdrawal transitions occurred faster in Mukteshwar than in Gual Pahari, both being typically less than 10 days. Transition periods in Gual Pahari took between 17 and 31 days. The shorter transition times in Mukteshwar were probably related to the more intense rains due to the mountain location.

  19. Warm Indian Ocean, Weak Asian Monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koll Roxy, Mathew; Ritika, Kapoor; Terray, Pascal; Murtugudde, Raghu; Ashok, Karumuri; Nath Goswami, Buphendra

    2015-04-01

    There are large uncertainties looming over the status and fate of the South Asian monsoon in a changing climate. Observations and climate models have suggested that anthropogenic warming in the past century has increased the moisture availability and the land-sea thermal contrast in the tropics, favoring an increase in monsoon rainfall. In contrast, we notice that South Asian subcontinent experienced a relatively subdued warming during this period. At the same time, the tropical Indian Ocean experienced a nearly monotonic warming, at a rate faster than the other tropical oceans. Using long-term observations and coupled model experiments, we suggest that the enhanced Indian Ocean warming along with the suppressed warming of the subcontinent weaken the land-sea thermal contrast throughout the troposphere, dampen the monsoon Hadley circulation, and reduce the rainfall over South Asia. As a result, the summer monsoon rainfall during 1901-2012 shows a significant weakening trend over South Asia, extending from Pakistan through central India to Bangladesh.

  20. Anomalous behaviour of the Indian summer monsoon 2009

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    B Preethi; J V Revadekar; R H Kripalani

    2011-10-01

    The Indian subcontinent witnessed a severe monsoon drought in the year 2009. India as a whole received 77% of its long period average during summer monsoon season (1 June to 30 September) of 2009, which is the third highest deficient all India monsoon season rainfall year during the period 1901–2009. Therefore, an attempt is made in this paper to study the characteristic features of summer monsoon rainfall of 2009 over the country and to investigate some of the possible causes behind the anomalous behaviour of the monsoon. Presence of El Niño like conditions in the Pacific and warming over the equatorial Indian Ocean altered the circulation patterns and produced an anomalous low level convergence and ascending motion over the Indian Ocean region and large scale subsidence over the Indian landmass. Furthermore, the crossequatorial flow was weak, the monsoon was dominated by the slower 30–60 day mode, and the synoptic systems, which formed over the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea, did not move inland. All the above features resulted in less moisture supply over the Indian landmass, resulting in subdued rainfall activity leading to a severe monsoon drought during 2009.

  1. A statistically predictive model for future monsoon failure in India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schewe, Jacob; Levermann, Anders

    2012-12-01

    Indian monsoon rainfall is vital for a large share of the world’s population. Both reliably projecting India’s future precipitation and unraveling abrupt cessations of monsoon rainfall found in paleorecords require improved understanding of its stability properties. While details of monsoon circulations and the associated rainfall are complex, full-season failure is dominated by large-scale positive feedbacks within the region. Here we find that in a comprehensive climate model, monsoon failure is possible but very rare under pre-industrial conditions, while under future warming it becomes much more frequent. We identify the fundamental intraseasonal feedbacks that are responsible for monsoon failure in the climate model, relate these to observational data, and build a statistically predictive model for such failure. This model provides a simple dynamical explanation for future changes in the frequency distribution of seasonal mean all-Indian rainfall. Forced only by global mean temperature and the strength of the Pacific Walker circulation in spring, it reproduces the trend as well as the multidecadal variability in the mean and skewness of the distribution, as found in the climate model. The approach offers an alternative perspective on large-scale monsoon variability as the result of internal instabilities modulated by pre-seasonal ambient climate conditions.

  2. Features of Tree Canopy Rainfall Initial Distribution and Analysis of Its Main Driving Factors in Monsoon Climate%季风气候下林冠降雨初次分配特征及其主效驱动因子分析

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    陈健果; 方秦华; 胡宏友

    2013-01-01

    运用调查统计和偏冗余方法分析中国温带至亚热带季风气候下的针、阔叶林冠层降雨初次分配特征,并对该生态过程的影响因子进行分析。结果表明:季风气候下,林冠降雨初次分配总体呈现平均透雨率>截留率>茎流率的趋势;不同林型、气候带的林冠降雨初次分配差异明显,林冠降雨平均截留率呈现温带>亚热带、针叶林>阔叶林的趋势。不同林型间(针叶和阔叶林)主效驱动因子相似,均以森林结构类因子为主,气候类因子居次;不同气候带间主效驱动因子不同,温带为气候类因子,亚热带为森林结构类因子。说明,大尺度下总体呈现气候类因子、森林结构类因子>地理地形类因子。研究结果可为评估和合理干预森林生态水文过程提供参考。%This paper applied investigation statistics and partial redundancy analysis to analyze the history data related rainfall parti -tioning from temperate zone to subtropical zone of China.It analysed the effect factors of the ecological course.Results obtained dem-onstrated that ,in monsoon climate ,canopy rainfall primary distribution showed that average saturating rain rate >intercept flow rate>stem flow rate.the canopy rainfall initial distribution such as interception loss presented a trend that temperate zone >subtropical zone;coniferous forests >broadleaf forests.And the dominated driving factors of coniferous and broadleaf forests were vegetation structures,meteorological conditions took the second place;different temperate and subtropical zones had different main driving fac-tors,meteorological conditions for temperate zone and vegetation structures for subtropical zone respectively .It showed that meteoro-logical conditions and vegetation structures >geographical and topographical characters.The above results could provide reference for evaluating and intervening reasonably the eco-hydrological process of

  3. Wetlands sediment record from the upper Yarlung Tsangpo valley, southwest Tibetan Plateau, reveals mid-Holocene Epipaleolithic human occupation coincident with increased early and mid-Holocene wetness driven by enhanced Indian Monsoon rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hudson, A. M.; Olsen, J. W.; Quade, J.; Lei, G.; Huth, T.; Zhang, H.; Perreault, C.

    2016-12-01

    The headwaters of the Yarlung Tsangpo river valley, located in the southwestern Tibetan Plateau, are characterized by a cold and dry climate, but contain abundant river-marginal wetlands environments, which fluctuate in extent in response to changes in local water table elevation. This region receives 80% of precipitation from the Indian Monsoon, which forms the dominant control on moisture availability, and hence wetlands extent. Our paleowetlands record, based on 14C dating of organic-rich paleowetlands deposits, provides a novel record of Holocene monsoon intensity. The wetlands deposits consist of four sedimentary units that indicate decreasing wetlands extent and monsoon intensity since 10.4 ka BP. Wet conditions occurred at ˜10.4 ka BP, ˜9.6 ka BP and ˜7.9-4.8 ka BP, with similar-to-modern conditions from ˜4.6-2.0 ka BP, and drier-than-modern conditions from ˜2.0 ka BP to present. Wetland changes correlate with monsoon intensity changes identified in nearby records, with weak monsoon intervals corresponding to desiccation and erosion of wetlands deposits. Dating of in situ ceramic and microlithic artifacts in wetlands sediments at multiple sites indicates Epipaleolithic human occupation of the YT valley after 6.6 ka BP. Artifact typology study reveals a similar microlithic technology was employed across the high plateau interior, but XRF obsidian provenance reveals separate northeast and southwest lithic conveyance zones. This indicates widespread colonization of the high, arid Tibetan Plateau interior by one or more highly mobile human populations during the early and mid-Holocene, coincident with favorable warm, wet climate conditions.

  4. The Joint Aerosol-Monsoon Experiment: A New Challenge to Monsoon Climate Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, William K. M.

    2008-01-01

    Aerosol and monsoon related droughts and floods are two of the most serious environmental hazards confronting more than 60% of the population of the world living in the Asian monsoon countries. In recent years, thanks to improved satellite and in-situ observations, and better models, great strides have been made in aerosol, and monsoon research respectively. There is now a growing body of evidence suggesting that interaction of aerosol forcing with water cycle dynamics in monsoon regions may substantially alter the redistribution of energy at the earth surface and in the atmosphere, and therefore significantly impact monsoon rainfall variability and long term trends. In this talk, I will describe issues related to societal needs, scientific background, and challenges in studies of aerosol-water cycle interaction in Asian monsoon regions. As a first step towards addressing these issues, the authors call for an integrated observation and modeling research approach aimed at the interactions between aerosol chemistry and radiative effects and monsoon dynamics of the coupled ocean-atmosphere-land system. A Joint Aerosol-Monsoon Experiment (JAMEX) is proposed for 2007-2011, with an enhanced observation period during 2008-09, encompassing diverse arrays of observations from surface, aircraft, unmanned aerial vehicles, and satellites of physical and chemical properties of aerosols, long range aerosol transport as well as meteorological and oceanographic parameters in the Indo-Pacific Asian monsoon region. JAMEX will leverage on coordination among many ongoing and planned national programs on aerosols and monsoon research in China, India, Japan, Nepal, Italy, US, as well as international research programs of the World Climate Research Program (WCRP) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

  5. An Emotional ANN (EANN) approach to modeling rainfall-runoff process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nourani, Vahid

    2017-01-01

    This paper presents the first hydrological implementation of Emotional Artificial Neural Network (EANN), as a new generation of Artificial Intelligence-based models for daily rainfall-runoff (r-r) modeling of the watersheds. Inspired by neurophysiological form of brain, in addition to conventional weights and bias, an EANN includes simulated emotional parameters aimed at improving the network learning process. EANN trained by a modified version of back-propagation (BP) algorithm was applied to single and multi-step-ahead runoff forecasting of two watersheds with two distinct climatic conditions. Also to evaluate the ability of EANN trained by smaller training data set, three data division strategies with different number of training samples were considered for the training purpose. The overall comparison of the obtained results of the r-r modeling indicates that the EANN could outperform the conventional feed forward neural network (FFNN) model up to 13% and 34% in terms of training and verification efficiency criteria, respectively. The superiority of EANN over classic ANN is due to its ability to recognize and distinguish dry (rainless days) and wet (rainy days) situations using hormonal parameters of the artificial emotional system.

  6. A new index to describe the tropical Asian summer monsoon

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    XU ZhongFeng; FU CongBin; QIAN YongFu

    2009-01-01

    We define a new monsoon index (MV) as the product of relative vorticity and equivalent potential tem-perature using the long-term NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data.The MV index provides new insights into the intraseasonal and interannual variabilities of the broad-scale tropical Asian summer monsoon (TASM),including the South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) and the South China Sea summer monsoon (SCSSM).On the intraseasonal timescale,the pentad-to-pentad MV index bears a close relationship to the broad-scale rainfall in the TASM regions.Among 29 summers from 1979 to 2007,in 23/27 summers the correlation coefficients are higher than 0.7 in the SASM/SCSSM region.However,in fewer than 9 summers,the correlations between the broad-scale rainfall and the existing circulation indices are higher than 0.7.On the interannual timescale,various existing SASM circulation indices are moderately or well correlated with all-India summer monsoon rainfall,whereas their correlations with broad-scale SASM rainfall are weak.In contrast,the summer mean MV index correlates well with the broad-scale SASM rainfall and all-India summer monsoon rainfall (correlation of 0.73 and 0.65,respectively).In the SCSSM region,the summer mean MV index also bears a close relationship to the SCSSM rainfall,al-though some discrepancies exist during certain years.The composite strong TASM shows a stronger low-tropospheric low pressure in association with the enhanced westerly winds and moisture transfer,stronger convection,and upper-tropospheric easterly winds,which indicate that the MV index can well capture the features of TASM.

  7. A new index to describe the tropical Asian summer monsoon

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2009-01-01

    We define a new monsoon index (MV) as the product of relative vorticity and equivalent potential temperature using the long-term NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. The MV index provides new insights into the intraseasonal and interannual variabilities of the broad-scale tropical Asian summer monsoon (TASM), including the South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) and the South China Sea summer monsoon (SCSSM). On the intraseasonal timescale, the pentad-to-pentad MV index bears a close relationship to the broad-scale rainfall in the TASM regions. Among 29 summers from 1979 to 2007, in 23/27 summers the correlation coefficients are higher than 0.7 in the SASM/SCSSM region. However, in fewer than 9 summers, the correlations between the broad-scale rainfall and the existing circulation indices are higher than 0.7. On the interannual timescale, various existing SASM circulation indices are moderately or well correlated with all-India summer monsoon rainfall, whereas their correlations with broad-scale SASM rainfall are weak. In contrast, the summer mean MV index correlates well with the broad-scale SASM rainfall and all-India summer monsoon rainfall (correlation of 0.73 and 0.65, respectively). In the SCSSM region, the summer mean MV index also bears a close relationship to the SCSSM rainfall, although some discrepancies exist during certain years. The composite strong TASM shows a stronger low-tropospheric low pressure in association with the enhanced westerly winds and moisture transfer, stronger convection, and upper-tropospheric easterly winds, which indicate that the MV index can well capture the features of TASM.

  8. A hemispheric climatology of monsoon depressions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hurley, J. V.; Boos, W.

    2012-12-01

    Monsoon depressions are large (1000-2000 km diameter) cyclonic low pressure systems having organized deep convection, best known for forming in the Bay of Bengal and migrating northwest over northern India in the monsoon trough. About 3 to 5 of these systems occur during each monsoon season, contributing about half of the Indian summer rainfall. Despite their importance as a precipitation source, their dynamics are poorly constrained. Furthermore, although they do occur elsewhere, such as around Australia and in the southern Indian Ocean, there does not exist a collective inventory of these systems outside of the Bay of Bengal region. Here we present a climatology of monsoon depressions produced from the ERA-Interim Reanalysis. Feature tracks are identified using an automated tracking algorithm (K. Hodges' TRACK code) applied to the 850 hPa relative vorticity field for local summer, 1989 to 2003. Using criteria based on relative vorticity and sea level pressure, cyclonic low pressure systems are separated into different intensity categories, one of which corresponds to the definition for monsoon depressions used by the India Meteorological Department. The resultant distribution of storms obtained for the Bay of Bengal region compares well with a previously compiled climatology of monsoon depressions that was limited to the region surrounding India. Having validated our ability to identify monsoon depressions in their classic genesis region near India, we then extend the methods to include the western Pacific, Australia, and the southern Indian Ocean. Track distributions and composite structures of monsoon depressions for these different regions will be presented.

  9. Structured teleconnections reveal the South American monsoon onset: A network approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ciemer, Catrin; Ekhtiari, Nikoo; Barbosa, Henrique; Boers, Niklas; Donner, Reik; Kurths, Jürgen; Rammig, Anja; Winkelmann, Ricarda

    2017-04-01

    The regional onset dates of the global monsoon systems are, to first order, determined by the seasonal shift of the intertropical convergence zone. However, precise onset dates vary substantially from year to year due to the complexity of the involved mechanisms. In this study, we investigate processes determining the onset of the South American monsoon system (SAMS). In recent years, a trend towards later onset dates of the SAMS has been observed. A later onset of the monsoon can have severe impacts on agriculture and infrastructure such as farming, water transport routes, and the stability of the Amazon rainforest in the long term. Possible reasons for this shift involve a multitude of climatic phenomena and variables relevant for the SAMS. To account for the highly interactive nature of the SAMS, we here investigate it with the help of complex networks. By studying the temporal changes of the correlation structure in spatial rainfall networks, we are able to determine coherent areas of similar precipitation patterns, spot teleconnections in terms of strongly correlated areas, detect key regions for precipitation correlations, and finally reveal the monsoon onset by an abrupt shift from an unordered to an ordered correlation structure of the network. To further evaluate the shift in the monsoon onset, we couple our rainfall network to a network of climate networks using sea surface temperature as a second variable. We are thereby able to emphasize oceanic regions that are particularly important for the SAMS and anticipate the influence of future changes of sea-surface temperature on the SAMS.

  10. THE EAST ASIAN SUBTROPICAL SUMMER MONSOON INDEX AND ITS RELATION WITH THE CLIMATE ANOMALIES IN CHINA

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LIU Xuan-fei; WANG-Jing

    2007-01-01

    A new East Asian subtropical summer monsoon circulation index is defined, where the barotropic and baroclinic components of circulation are included. Results show that this index can well indicate the interannual variability of summer precipitation and temperature anomalies in China. A strong monsoon is characterized by more rainfall in the Yellow River basin and northern China, less rainfall in the Yangtze River basin, and more rainfall in south and southeast China, in association with higher temperature in most areas of China. Furthermore, comparison is made between the index proposed in this paper and other monsoon indexes in representing climate anomalies in China.

  11. Increasing trend of `Break-Monsoon` conditions over India — Role of ocean–atmosphere processes in the Indian Ocean

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    RameshKumar, M.R.; Krishnan, R.; Sankar, S.; Unnikrishnan, A.S.; Pai, D.S.

    -scales can force prolonged monsoon-breaks leading to drought conditions over the sub-continent. This coupling involves a wind-thermocline feedback which maintains warmer-than-normal sea surface temperature (SST) and enhanced convection over eastern... pointed out that the positive SST gradient along the equator, which results from the anomalous warming of the eastern IO, can help sustain anomalous equatorial westerly winds through a Bjerknes-type wind- thermocline feedback mechanism. It can be noted...

  12. Spatial monsoon variability with respect to NAO and SO

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    S B Kakade; S S Dugam

    2006-10-01

    In this paper, the simultaneous effect of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Southern Oscillation (SO) on monsoon rainfall over different homogeneous regions/subdivisions of India is studied. The simultaneous effect of both NAO and SO on Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) is more important than their individual impact because both the oscillations exist simultaneously throughout the year. To represent the simultaneous impact of NAO and SO, an index called effective strength index (ESI) has been defined on the basis of monthly NAO and SO indices. The variation in the tendency of ESI from January through April has been analyzed and reveals that when this tendency is decreasing, then the ESI value throughout the monsoon season (June-September) of the year remains negative and vice versa. This study further suggests that during the negative phase of ESI tendency, almost all subdivisions of India show above-normal rainfall and vice versa. The correlation analysis indicates that the ESI-tendency is showing an inverse and statistically significant relationship with rainfall over 14 subdivisions of India. Area wise, about 50% of the total area of India shows statistically significant association. Moreover, the ESI-tendency shows a significant relationship with rainfall over north west India, west central India, central north east India, peninsular India and India as a whole. Thus, ESI-tendency can be used as a precursor for the prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall on a smaller spatial scale.

  13. The use of simulated rainfall to study the discharge process and the influence factors of urban surface runoff pollution loads.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qinqin, Li; Qiao, Chen; Jiancai, Deng; Weiping, Hu

    2015-01-01

    An understanding of the characteristics of pollutants on impervious surfaces is essential to estimate pollution loads and to design methods to minimize the impacts of pollutants on the environment. In this study, simulated rainfall equipment was constructed to investigate the pollutant discharge process and the influence factors of urban surface runoff (USR). The results indicated that concentrations of total suspended solids (TSS), total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP) and chemical oxygen demand (COD) appeared to be higher in the early period and then decreased gradually with rainfall duration until finally stabilized. The capacity and particle size of surface dust, rainfall intensity and urban surface slopes affected runoff pollution loads to a variable extent. The loads of TP, TN and COD showed a positive relationship with the surface dust capacity, whereas the maximum TSS load appeared when the surface dust was 0.0317 g·cm⁻². Smaller particle sizes (rainfall intensity and surface slope enhanced the pollution carrying capacity of runoff, leading to higher pollution loads. Knowledge of the influence factors could assist in the management of USR pollution loads.

  14. Boreal summer sub-seasonal variability of the South Asian monsoon in the Met Office GloSea5 initialized coupled model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jayakumar, A.; Turner, A. G.; Johnson, S. J.; Rajagopal, E. N.; Mohandas, Saji; Mitra, A. K.

    2017-09-01

    Boreal summer sub-seasonal variability in the Asian monsoon, otherwise known as the monsoon intra-seasonal oscillation (MISO), is one of the dominant modes of intraseasonal variability in the tropics, with large impacts on total monsoon rainfall and India's agricultural production. However, our understanding of the mechanisms involved in MISO is incomplete and its simulation in various numerical models is often flawed. In this study, we focus on the objective evaluation of the fidelity of MISO simulation in the Met Office Global Seasonal forecast system version 5 (GloSea5), an initialized coupled model. We analyze a series of nine-member hindcasts from GloSea5 over 1996-2009 during the peak monsoon period (July-August) over the South-Asian monsoon domain focusing on aspects of the time-mean background state and air-sea interaction processes pertinent to MISO. Dominant modes during this period are evident in power spectrum analysis, but propagation and evolution characteristics of the MISO are not realistic. We find that simulated air-sea interactions in the central Indian Ocean are not supportive of MISO initiation in that region, likely a result of the low surface wind variance there. As a consequence, the expected near-quadrature phase relationship between SST and convection is not represented properly over the central equatorial Indian Ocean, and northward propagation from the equator is poorly simulated. This may reinforce the equatorial rainfall mean state bias in GloSea5.

  15. Atmospheric nitrate leached from small forested watersheds during rainfall events: Processes and quantitative evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osaka, Ken'ichi; Kugo, Tatsuro; Komaki, Naoto; Nakamura, Takashi; Nishida, Kei; Nagafuchi, Osamu

    2016-08-01

    To determine the availability of atmospheric NO3- deposition on forested ecosystems and to understand the interaction between the nitrogen cycle in a forest ecosystem and atmospheric nitrogen input/output, we quantitatively evaluated the atmospheric NO3- passing through forested watersheds by measuring δ18ONO3 leaching during rainfall events in two forest ecosystems (Su-A and Ab-S). Atmospheric NO3- leaching in rainfall events was clearly higher in Ab-S than in Su-A, even for a similar amount of rainfall, which demonstrated that atmospheric NO3- leaching differs among forested watersheds. Our observations suggest that a large part of the atmospheric NO3- leached from the watersheds was derived from surface soil, which was deposited before rainfall events occurred; however, direct atmospheric NO3- leaching via throughfall discharge also contributed, especially at the beginning of rainfall events. In Ab-S, 2.9-37.8% (average = 15.5%) of atmospheric NO3- deposition passed through the watershed, accounting for 3.1-49.8% (average, 26.4%) of the total NO3- leached during rainfall events. The NO3- input was not large, and the NO3- pool and net nitrification rate were small; therefore, nitrogen was not saturated in the soil at Ab-S. Nevertheless, some of the atmospheric NO3- deposition was not assimilated and was leached immediately. Moreover, our observations suggest that the hydrological characteristics of the watersheds, which control the ease of rainwater discharge, strongly influenced the rate of atmospheric NO3- leaching. This suggests that the hydrological characteristics of watersheds influence the availability of atmospheric NO3- deposition in forested ecosystems and the progression of nitrogen saturation.

  16. Autoencoder-based identification of predictors of Indian monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saha, Moumita; Mitra, Pabitra; Nanjundiah, Ravi S.

    2016-10-01

    Prediction of Indian summer monsoon uses a number of climatic variables that are historically known to provide a high skill. However, relationships between predictors and predictand could be complex and also change with time. The present work attempts to use a machine learning technique to identify new predictors for forecasting the Indian monsoon. A neural network-based non-linear dimensionality reduction technique, namely, the sparse autoencoder is used for this purpose. It extracts a number of new predictors that have prediction skills higher than the existing ones. Two non-linear ensemble prediction models of regression tree and bagged decision tree are designed with identified monsoon predictors and are shown to be superior in terms of prediction accuracy. Proposed model shows mean absolute error of 4.5 % in predicting the Indian summer monsoon rainfall. Lastly, geographical distribution of the new monsoon predictors and their characteristics are discussed.

  17. Impact of Anthropogenic Climate Change on the East Asian Summer Monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burke, Claire; Stott, Peter

    2017-07-01

    The East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) is important for bringing rainfall to large areas of China. Historically, variations in the EASM have had major impacts including flooding and drought. We present an analysis of the impact of anthropogenic climate change on EASM rainfall in Eastern China using a newly updated attribution system. Our results suggest that anthropogenic climate change has led to an overall decrease in total monsoon rainfall over the past 65 years, and an increased number of dry days. However the model also predicts that anthropogenic forcings have caused the most extreme heavy rainfall events to become shorter in duration and more intense. With the potential for future changes in aerosol and greenhouse gas emissions, historical trends in monsoon rainfall may not be indicative of future changes, although extreme rainfall is projected to increase over East Asia with continued warming in the region.

  18. Model Interpretation of Climate Signals: Application to the Asian Monsoon Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, William K. M.

    2002-01-01

    This is an invited review paper intended to be published as a Chapter in a book entitled "The Global Climate System: Patterns, Processes and Teleconnections" Cambridge University Press. The author begins with an introduction followed by a primer of climate models, including a description of various modeling strategies and methodologies used for climate diagnostics and predictability studies. Results from the CLIVAR Monsoon Model Intercomparison Project (MMIP) were used to illustrate the application of the strategies to modeling the Asian monsoon. It is shown that state-of-the art atmospheric GCMs have reasonable capability in simulating the seasonal mean large scale monsoon circulation, and response to El Nino. However, most models fail to capture the climatological as well as interannual anomalies of regional scale features of the Asian monsoon. These include in general over-estimating the intensity and/or misplacing the locations of the monsoon convection over the Bay of Bengal, and the zones of heavy rainfall near steep topography of the Indian subcontinent, Indonesia, and Indo-China and the Philippines. The intensity of convection in the equatorial Indian Ocean is generally weaker in models compared to observations. Most important, an endemic problem in all models is the weakness and the lack of definition of the Mei-yu rainbelt of the East Asia, in particular the part of the Mei-yu rainbelt over the East China Sea and southern Japan are under-represented. All models seem to possess certain amount of intraseasonal variability, but the monsoon transitions, such as the onset and breaks are less defined compared with the observed. Evidences are provided that a better simulation of the annual cycle and intraseasonal variability is a pre-requisite for better simulation and better prediction of interannual anomalies.

  19. Interaction of Convective Organization and Monsoon Precipitation, Atmosphere, Surface and Sea (INCOMPASS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, A. G.; Bhat, G. S.; Evans, J. G.; Madan, R.; Marsham, J. H.; Martin, G.; Mitra, A. K.; Mrudula, G.; Parker, D. J.; Pattnaik, S.; Rajagopal, E. N.; Taylor, C.; Tripathi, S. N.

    2016-12-01

    INCOMPASS will build on a field and aircraft measurement campaign from the 2016 monsoon onset to better understand and predict monsoon rainfall. The monsoon supplies the majority of water in South Asia, however modelling and forecasting the monsoon from days to the season ahead is limited by large model errors that develop quickly. Likely problems lie in physical parametrizations such as convection, the boundary layer and land surface. At the same time, lack of detailed observations prevents more thorough understanding of monsoon circulation and its interaction with the land surface; a process governed by boundary layer and convective cloud dynamics. From May to July 2016, INCOMPASS used a modified BAe-146 jet aircraft operated by the UK Facility for Airborne Atmospheric Measurements (FAAM), for the first project of this scale in India. The India and UK team flew around 100 hours of science sorties from bases in northern and southern India. Flights from Lucknow in the northern plains took measurements to the west and southeast to allow sampling of the complete contrast from dry desert air to the humid environment over the north Bay of Bengal. These routes were repeated in the pre-monsoon and monsoon phases, measuring contrasting surface and boundary layer structures. In addition, flights from the southern base in Bengaluru measured contrasts from the Arabian Sea, across the intense rains of the Western Ghats mountains, over the rain shadow in southeast India and over the southern Bay of Bengal. Flight planning was performed with the aid of forecasts from a new UK Met Office 4km limited area model. INCOMPASS also installed a network of surface flux towers, as well as operating a cloud-base ceilometer and performing intensive radiosonde launches from a supersite in Kanpur. This presentation will outline preliminary results from the field campaign including new observations of the surface, boundary layer structure and atmospheric profiles together with detailed

  20. Spatial and Temporal Variability of Rainfall in the Gandaki River Basin of Nepal Himalaya

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeeban Panthi

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Landslides, floods, and droughts are recurring natural disasters in Nepal related to too much or too little water. The summer monsoon contributes more than 80% of annual rainfall, and rainfall spatial and inter-annual variation is very high. The Gandaki River, one of the three major rivers of Nepal and one of the major tributaries of the Ganges River, covers all agro-ecological zones in the central part of Nepal. Time series tests were applied for different agro-ecological zones of the Gandaki River Basin (GRB for rainfall trends of four seasons (pre-monsoon, monsoon, post-monsoon and winter from 1981 to 2012. The non-parametric Mann-Kendall and Sen’s methods were used to determine the trends. Decadal anomalies relative to the long-term average were analyzed using the APHRODITE precipitation product. Trends in number of rainy days and timing of the monsoon were also analyzed. We found that the post-monsoon, pre-monsoon and winter rainfalls are decreasing significantly in most of the zones but monsoon rainfall is increasing throughout the basin. In the hill region, the annual rainfall is increasing but the rainy days do not show any trend. There is a tendency toward later departure of monsoon from Nepal, indicating an increase in its duration. These seasonally and topographically variable trends may have significant impacts for the agriculture and livestock smallholders that form the majority of the population in the GRB.

  1. Analysis of flash flood-triggering rainfall for a process-oriented hydrological model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garambois, P. A.; Larnier, K.; Roux, H.; Labat, D.; Dartus, D.

    2014-02-01

    We propose an extended study of recent flood-triggering storms and resulting hydrological responses for catchments in the Pyrenean foothills up to the Aude region. For hydrometeorological sciences, it appears relevant to characterize flash floods and the storm that triggered them over various temporal and spatial scales. There are very few studies of extreme storm-caused floods in the literature covering the Mediterranean and highlighting, for example, the quickness and seasonality of this natural phenomenon. The present analysis is based on statistics that clarify the dependence between the spatial and temporal distributions of rainfall at catchment scale, catchment morphology and runoff response. Given the specific space and time scales of rainfall cell development, we show that the combined use of radar and a rain gauge network appears pertinent. Rainfall depth and intensity are found to be lower for catchments in the Pyrenean foothills than for the nearby Corbières or Montagne Noire regions. We highlight various hydrological behaviours and show that an increase in initial soil saturation tends to foster quicker catchment flood response times, of around 3 to 10 h. The hydrometeorological data set characterized in this paper constitutes a wealth of information to constrain a physics-based distributed model for regionalization purposes in the case of flash floods. Moreover, the use of diagnostic indices for rainfall distribution over catchment drainage networks highlights a unimodal trend in spatial temporal storm distributions for the entire flood dataset. Finally, it appears that floods in mountainous Pyrenean catchments are generally triggered by rainfall near the catchment outlet, where the topography is lower.

  2. Global monsoon in a geological perspective

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG PinXian

    2009-01-01

    Monsoon is now considered as a global system rather than regional phenomena only. For over 300 years, monsoon has been viewed as a gigantic land-sea breeze, but now satellite and conventional observations support an alternative hypothesis which considers monsoon as a manifestation of sea-sonal migration of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and, hence, a climate system of the global scale. As a low-latitude climate system, monsoon exists over all continents but Antarctica, and through all the geological history at least since the Phenorozoic. The time is ripe for systematical studies of monsoon variations in space and time.As evidenced by the geological records, the global monsoon is controlled by the Wilson cycle on the tectonic time scale (106-108a). A "Mega-continent" produces "Mega-monsoon", and its breakdown leads to weakening of the monsoon Intensity. On the time scales of 104-105 a, the global monsoon displays the precessional cycles of~20 ka and eccentricity cycles of 100- and 400-ka, i.e. the orbital cycles. On the time scales of 103 a and below, the global monsoon intensity is modulated by solar cy-cles and other factors. The cyclicity of global monsoon represents one of the fundamental factors re-sponsible for variations in the Earth surface system as well as for the environmental changes of the human society. The 400-ka long eccentricity cycles of the global monsoon is likened to "heartbeat" of the Earth system, and the precession cycle of the global monsoon was responsible for the collapse of several Asian and African ancient cultures at~4000 years ago, whereas the Solar cycles led to the de-mise of the Maya civilization about a thousand years ago. Therefore, paleoclimatology should be fo-cused not only on the high-latitude processes centered at ice cap variations, but also on the low-latitude processes such as monsoons, as the latter are much more common in the geological history compared to the glaciations.

  3. Aerosol and monsoon climate interactions over Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Zhanqing; Lau, W. K.-M.; Ramanathan, V.; Wu, G.; Ding, Y.; Manoj, M. G.; Liu, J.; Qian, Y.; Li, J.; Zhou, T.; Fan, J.; Rosenfeld, D.; Ming, Y.; Wang, Y.; Huang, J.; Wang, B.; Xu, X.; Lee, S.-S.; Cribb, M.; Zhang, F.; Yang, X.; Zhao, C.; Takemura, T.; Wang, K.; Xia, X.; Yin, Y.; Zhang, H.; Guo, J.; Zhai, P. M.; Sugimoto, N.; Babu, S. S.; Brasseur, G. P.

    2016-12-01

    The increasing severity of droughts/floods and worsening air quality from increasing aerosols in Asia monsoon regions are the two gravest threats facing over 60% of the world population living in Asian monsoon regions. These dual threats have fueled a large body of research in the last decade on the roles of aerosols in impacting Asian monsoon weather and climate. This paper provides a comprehensive review of studies on Asian aerosols, monsoons, and their interactions. The Asian monsoon region is a primary source of emissions of diverse species of aerosols from both anthropogenic and natural origins. The distributions of aerosol loading are strongly influenced by distinct weather and climatic regimes, which are, in turn, modulated by aerosol effects. On a continental scale, aerosols reduce surface insolation and weaken the land-ocean thermal contrast, thus inhibiting the development of monsoons. Locally, aerosol radiative effects alter the thermodynamic stability and convective potential of the lower atmosphere leading to reduced temperatures, increased atmospheric stability, and weakened wind and atmospheric circulations. The atmospheric thermodynamic state, which determines the formation of clouds, convection, and precipitation, may also be altered by aerosols serving as cloud condensation nuclei or ice nuclei. Absorbing aerosols such as black carbon and desert dust in Asian monsoon regions may also induce dynamical feedback processes, leading to a strengthening of the early monsoon and affecting the subsequent evolution of the monsoon. Many mechanisms have been put forth regarding how aerosols modulate the amplitude, frequency, intensity, and phase of different monsoon climate variables. A wide range of theoretical, observational, and modeling findings on the Asian monsoon, aerosols, and their interactions are synthesized. A new paradigm is proposed on investigating aerosol-monsoon interactions, in which natural aerosols such as desert dust, black carbon from

  4. Diagnosing potential changes in Asian summer monsoon onset and duration in IPCC AR4 model simulations using moisture and wind indices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, Huqiang; Moise, A.; Hanson, L. [Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, A Partnership between the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO, GPO Box 1289k, Melbourne, VIC (Australia); Liang, Ping [China Meteorological Administration, Shanghai Regional Climate Center, Shanghai (China)

    2012-11-15

    Using daily precipitable water (PW) and 850 hPa monsoon wind, which represent large-scale moisture and dynamic conditions for monsoon development, we analyze potential changes in Asian monsoon onset, retreat and duration simulated by 13 IPCC AR4 models. Most models are able to reproduce the observed temporal and spatial evolution patterns of the Asian monsoon system. Nevertheless, there are significant model biases and some models fail in reproducing the broad structure. Under a warmed climate, changes in onset and duration days are only moderate (about 3-10 days), with significant discrepancies among the models, particularly over the East Asia land area where the models are almost equally divided. In the tropical Indian Ocean, maritime continent and Indochina Peninsula, the majority of the models tend to simulate delayed onset and shortened duration while in the western North Pacific most models exhibit an early onset and longer duration. There are two reasons leading to such uncertainties: (1) the key processes determining the Asian monsoon onset/retreat are different among the models. Some are more influenced by ENSO-like processes. But in some models, monsoon onset/retreat is more significantly correlated to circulations in the tropics. (2) The model-simulated changes in these dominant processes are different. In some models, surface warming is more intense in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean with El Nino-like patterns, while others do not show such features. If the model-simulated monsoon onset/retreat is correlated to the central and eastern Pacific warming and at the same time the model simulates much larger warming of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, then it is very likely that these models will show significant delay of south Asian monsoon onset and shortened duration. In some models, the delayed onsets are more related to the reduction of westerlies in the west of the warm pool region. The patterns of anomalous SST and wind conditions

  5. Precipitation Isotopes Reveal Intensified Indonesian Monsoon Circulation During the Dry Last Glacial Maximum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Konecky, B. L.; Russell, J. M.; Vogel, H.; Bijaksana, S.; Huang, Y.

    2014-12-01

    The Indo-Pacific Warm Pool (IPWP) invigorates the oceanic-atmospheric circulation in the tropics, with far-reaching climate impacts that extend into the high latitudes. A growing number of deglacial proxy reconstructions from the region have revealed the importance of both high- and low-latitude climate processes to IPWP rainfall during the late Pleistocene. Many of these proxies reconstruct the oxygen and hydrogen isotopic composition of rainfall (δ18Oprecip, δDprecip), a powerful tool for understanding changes in climate. However, an increasing number of studies from the region have highlighted the tendency for δ18Oprecip and δDprecip to reflect regional and/or remote circulation processes rather than local rainfall amounts, complicating the reconstruction of IPWP hydroclimate. To better understand high- and low-latitude drivers of late Pleistocene hydroclimate in the IPWP, precipitation isotopic reconstructions must be constrained with both modern observations and independent proxies for rainfall amount. We present a reconstruction of δDprecip using leaf wax compounds preserved in the sediments of Lake Towuti, Sulawesi, from 60,000 years before present to today. We interpret our proxy record with the aid of a new precipitation isotopic dataset from our study site, with daily rainfall isotope measurements to constrain the processes controlling δDprecip. Our Lake Towuti δDwax record is strikingly similar to a speleothem δ18O record from southern Indonesia (Ayliffe et al., 2013) and shares features with other nearby records spanning the Last Glacial Maximum to present. Together, these records indicate that monsoon circulation was intensified in central and southern Indonesia during the glacial period. However, other independent rainfall proxies from Lake Towuti indicate that dry conditions accompanied the intensified monsoon. Regional-scale isotopic depletion during the dry glacial period may have arisen from dynamical and other fractionating processes that

  6. Stable isotopes in monsoon precipitation and water vapour in Nagqu, Tibet, and their implications for monsoon moisture

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Siyuan; Richards, Keith

    2016-09-01

    Understanding climate variations over the Qinghai-Tibetan plateau has become essential because the high plateau sustains various ecosystems and water sources, and impacts on the Asian monsoon system. This paper provides new information from isotopic signals in meteoric water and atmospheric water vapour on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau using high frequency observation data over a relatively short period. The aim is to explore temporal moisture changes and annual variations at the onset and during the summer monsoon season at a transitional site with respect to the monsoon influence. Data show that high frequency and short period observations can reveal typical moisture changes from the pre-monsoon to the monsoon seasons (2010), and the large variation in isotopic signals in different years with respect to active/inactive periods during a mature phase of the monsoon (2011), especially inferring from the temporal changes in the d-excess of precipitation and its relationship with δ18O values, when higher d-excess is found in the pre-monsoon precipitation. In this transition zone on a daily basis, δ18O values in precipitation are controlled mainly by the amount of rainfall during the monsoon season, while temperature seems more important before the onset of monsoon. Furthermore, the "amount effect" is significant for night-time rain events. From comparison of signals in both the precipitation and water vapour, an inconsistent relationship between d-excess values suggests various moisture fluxes are active in a short period. The temporal pattern of isotopic signal change from the onset of the monsoon to the mature monsoon phase provides information about the larger circulation dynamics of the Asian monsoon.

  7. Observed daily large-scale rainfall patterns during BOBMEX-1999

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    A K Mitra; M Das Gupta; R K Paliwal; S V Singh

    2003-06-01

    A daily rainfall dataset and the corresponding rainfall maps have been produced by objective analysis of rainfall data. The satellite estimate of rainfall and the raingauge values are merged to form the final analysis. Associated with epochs of monsoon these rainfall maps are able to show the rainfall activities over India and the Bay of Bengal region during the BOBMEX period. The intra-seasonal variations of rainfall during BOBMEX are also seen using these data. This dataset over the oceanic region compares well with other available popular datasets like GPCP and CMAP. Over land this dataset brings out the features of monsoon in more detail due to the availability of more local raingauge stations.

  8. Impact of convection over the equatorial trough on the summer monsoon activity over India

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    RameshKumar, M.R.; Shenoi, S.S.C.; Schulz, J.

    Project (GPCP). Most (about 73%) of the break in monsoon (BM) events were associated with the convective activity (rainfall more than 30 mm/pentad) over the equatorial trough (ET) region. The association between these events and the convective activity...

  9. Interannual variability of South American monsoon circulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alonso Gan, Manoel; Rafaele Araújo Lima, Jeane

    2016-04-01

    The South America Monsoon System (SAMS) is responsible for influencing the atmospheric circulation and precipitation over most of tropical South America (SA) during the summer season. Studies for aiming to understand the temporal variability of this system have great value to the scientific community, because the processes that control the monsoon climate are not totally clear. Thus, the main objective of this research is to investigate the possible large-scale climatic factors and the remote interaction mechanisms, which may be associated with summer season interannual variability focusing on identifying the main differences between dry and wet extremes rainy season in the South-eastern Amazon Basin (SAB), Central-West (WC) and Southeast (SE) of Brazil, which are areas influenced by the summer monsoon regime. For such analyzes, Pearson correlations, quantile method and composite analysis were used during the period from 1979 to 2014. The correlation between precipitation anomaly in SAB and the sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) and wind at 850hPa and 300hPa indicate El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influence. Precipitation anomalies in WC did not show significant correlation with SSTA. However, a pattern similar to ENSO Modoki type was observed in the composite analysis. At 850 hPa, the presence of an anomalous cyclonic (anticyclonic) circulation was observed over the central region of SA during wet (dry) summers seasons. Over SE region of Brazil, a dipole SSTA pattern over the South Atlantic was identified, as well the presence of anomalous circulations with an equivalent barotropic structure over these SSTA areas. This pattern is more evident in case of dry summer on the SE. At 300 hPa, the wave train between 30°S-60°S was observed presenting a feature curvature from 120°W reaching SA, similar to the Pacific-South American pattern (PSA). Analysis of the summer interannual variability indicated the manifestation of wet summers more frequently than dry

  10. Hydrological processes obtained on the plot scale under four simulated rainfall tests during the cycle of different crop systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ildegardis Bertol

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available The cropping system influences the interception of water by plants, water storage in depressions on the soil surface, water infiltration into the soil and runoff. The aim of this study was to quantify some hydrological processes under no tillage cropping systems at the edge of a slope, in 2009 and 2010, in a Humic Dystrudept soil, with the following treatments: corn, soybeans, and common beans alone; and intercropped corn and common bean. Treatments consisted of four simulated rainfall tests at different times, with a planned intensity of 64 mm h-1 and 90 min duration. The first test was applied 18 days after sowing, and the others at 39, 75 and 120 days after the first test. Different times of the simulated rainfall and stages of the crop cycle affected soil water content prior to the rain, and the time runoff began and its peak flow and, thus, the surface hydrological processes. The depth of the runoff and the depth of the water intercepted by the crop + soil infiltration + soil surface storage were affected by the crop systems and the rainfall applied at different times. The corn crop was the most effective treatment for controlling runoff, with a water loss ratio of 0.38, equivalent to 75 % of the water loss ratio exhibited by common bean (0.51, the least effective treatment in relation to the others. Total water loss by runoff decreased linearly with an increase in the time that runoff began, regardless of the treatment; however, soil water content on the gravimetric basis increased linearly from the beginning to the end of the rainfall.

  11. Physical modelling of the rainfall infiltration processes and related landslide behaviour.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capparelli, Giovanna; Damiano, Emilia; Olivares, Lucio; Spolverino, Gennaro; Versace, Pasquale

    2016-04-01

    The prediction of natural processes, such as weather-induced landslide, an issue that is of great importance. Were held numerous research to understand the processes underlying the triggering of a landslide, and to improve the forecasting systems. A valid prediction model can allow the implementation of an equally valid announcement and warning system, thus reducing the risk caused by such phenomena. The hydraulic and hydrologic modeling of the process that takes place in an unstable slope subjected to rainfall, can be performed using two approaches: through mathematical models or physical models. Our research uses an integrated approach, making system data of experimental sites, with both the results and interpretations of physical models, both with simulations of mathematical models. The intent is to observe and interpret laboratory experiments to reproduce and simulate the phenomenon with mathematical models. The research aims to obtain interpretations of hydrological and hydraulic processes, which occur in the slopes as a result of rain, more and more accurate. For our research we use a scaled-down physical model and a mathematical model FEM. The physical model is a channel with transparent walls composed of two floors at a variable angle (ignition and propagation) 1 meter wide and 3 meters long each. The model is instrumented with sensors that control the hydraulic and geotechnical parameters within the slopes and devices that simulate natural events. The model is equipped with a monitoring system able to keep under observation the physical quantities of interest. In particular, the apparatus is equipped with tensiometers miniaturized, that can be installed in different positions and at different depths, for the measurement of suction within the slope, miniaturized pressure transducers on the bottom of the channel for the measurement of any pressure neutral positive , TDR system for the measurement of the volumetric water content, and displacement transducers

  12. Differences and links between the East Asian and South Asian summer monsoon systems: Characteristics and Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Ronghui; Liu, Yong; Du, Zhencai; Chen, Jilong; Huangfu, Jingliang

    2017-10-01

    This paper analyzes the differences in the characteristics and spatio-temporal variabilities of summertime rainfall and water vapor transport between the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) systems. The results show obvious differences in summertime rainfall characteristics between these two monsoon systems. The summertime rainfall cloud systems of the EASM show a mixed stratiform and cumulus cloud system, while cumulus cloud dominates the SASM. These differences may be caused by differences in the vertical shear of zonal and meridional circulations and the convergence of water vapor transport fluxes. Moreover, the leading modes of the two systems' summertime rainfall anomalies also differ in terms of their spatiotemporal features on the interannual and interdecadal timescales. Nevertheless, several close links with respect to the spatiotemporal variabilities of summertime rainfall and water vapor transport exist between the two monsoon systems. The first modes of summertime rainfall in the SASM and EASM regions reveal a significant negative correlation on the interannual and the interdecadal timescales. This close relationship may be linked by a meridional teleconnection in the regressed summertime rainfall anomalies from India to North China through the southeastern part over the Tibetan Plateau, which we refer to as the South Asia/East Asia teleconnection pattern of Asian summer monsoon rainfall. The authors wish to dedicate this paper to Prof. Duzheng YE, and commemorate his 100th anniversary and his great contributions to the development of atmospheric dynamics.

  13. Entropy of stable seasonal rainfall distribution in Kelantan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azman, Muhammad Az-zuhri; Zakaria, Roslinazairimah; Satari, Siti Zanariah; Radi, Noor Fadhilah Ahmad

    2017-05-01

    Investigating the rainfall variability is vital for any planning and management in many fields related to water resources. Climate change can gives an impact of water availability and may aggravate water scarcity in the future. Two statistics measurements which have been used by many researchers to measure the rainfall variability are variance and coefficient of variation. However, these two measurements are insufficient since rainfall distribution in Malaysia especially in the East Coast of Peninsular Malaysia is not symmetric instead it is positively skewed. In this study, the entropy concept is used as a tool to measure the seasonal rainfall variability in Kelantan and ten rainfall stations were selected. In previous studies, entropy of stable rainfall (ESR) and apportionment entropy (AE) were used to describe the rainfall amount variability during years for Australian rainfall data. In this study, the entropy of stable seasonal rainfall (ESSR) is suggested to model rainfall amount variability during northeast monsoon (NEM) and southwest monsoon (SWM) seasons in Kelantan. The ESSR is defined to measure the long-term average seasonal rainfall amount variability within a given year (1960-2012). On the other hand, the AE measures the rainfall amounts variability across the months. The results of ESSR and AE values show that stations in east coastline are more variable as compared to other stations inland for Kelantan rainfall. The contour maps of ESSR for Kelantan rainfall stations are also presented.

  14. Rainfall and temperature scenarios for Bangladesh for the middle of 21st century using RegCM

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Md Mizanur Rahman; Md Nazrul Islam; Ahsan Uddin Ahmed; F Georgi

    2012-04-01

    Regional Climate Model of version 3 (RegCM3) was driven with Emissions Scenarios A2 of ECHAM4 at 0.54° × 0.54° horizontal grid resolution in two parameterizations: Grell scheme with Arakawa–Schubert (GAS) and Fritch–Chappell (GFC) assumptions. The simulated rainfall and mean surface air temperature were calibrated and validated against ground-based observed data in Bangladesh during the period 1961–1990. The Climate Research Unit (CRU) data is also used for understanding the model performance. Better performance of RegCM3 obtained through validation process, made it confident in utilizing it in rainfall and temperature projection for Bangladesh in the middle of 21st century. Rainfall and mean surface air temperature projection for Bangladesh is experimentally obtained for 2050 and 2060. This work discloses that simulated rainfall and temperature are not directly useful in application-oriented tasks. However, after calibration and validation, reasonable performance can be obtained in estimating seasonal and annual rainfall, and mean surface air temperature in Bangladesh. The projected change of rainfall for Bangladesh is about +35% for monsoon season (JJAS), −67% for pre-monsoon (MAM), −12% for post-monsoon (ON) and 107% for winter (DJF) for 2050. On an average, rainfall may be less by more than 50% for all seasons for the year 2060. Similarly, change of mean surface air temperature in different months is projected about 0.5°–2.1°C and 0.9°–3.5°C for the year 2050 and 2060, respectively.

  15. Himalayan River Terraces as A Landscape Response to Quaternary Summer Monsoon Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jonell, T. N.; Clift, P. D.

    2013-12-01

    In order to interpret marine sedimentary archives as records of the erosional response to Asian monsoon variability, we must first recognize how transport processes affect the storage and release of sediment to the ocean. River terraces, such as found in the Greater Himalaya, provide a pivotal role in the source-to-sink story, because this is where sediment storage occurs and is likely modulated. We investigate the role that climate plays in controlling erosion and sediment flux to the Indus delta and fan by looking at the Indus River system, which is dominated by the strong forcing of the Asian monsoon, as well as winter Westerly winds. Paleoceanographic, speleothem, and lacustrine records indicate that summer monsoon intensity was strong from 29 to 37 ka, decreased after that time until ~16 ka, reached maximum intensity from 8 to 10 ka, and then weakened until ~3 ka. Some lacustrine records, however, indicate a more complex pattern of monsoon variability in the Greater Himalaya, which contrasts with monsoonal forcing in central India. This disagreement suggests that floodplains of major river systems may not experience the same climatic conditions as their mountain sources, resulting in contrasting landscape responses to climate change. High altitude river valleys, at least north ofthe Greater Himalaya, appear to be sensitive to monsoon strength because they lie on the periphery of the present rainfall maximum, in the Himalayan rain shadow. These steep river valleys may be affected by landslide damming during periods of increase moisture transport and strong monsoonal precipitation, where damming provides sediment storage through valley-filling and later sediment release through gradual incision or dam-bursting. The Zanskar River, a major tributary to the upper Indus River, provides a record of the erosional response of mountain river valleys to these extreme phases through river terracing. New OSL ages from alluvial terraces indicate reworking of sediment and

  16. Asian Eocene monsoons as revealed by leaf architectural signatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spicer, Robert A.; Yang, Jian; Herman, Alexei B.; Kodrul, Tatiana; Maslova, Natalia; Spicer, Teresa E. V.; Aleksandrova, Galina; Jin, Jianhua

    2016-09-01

    The onset and development of the Asian monsoon systems is a topic that has attracted considerable research effort but proxy data limitations, coupled with a diversity of definitions and metrics characterizing monsoon phenomena, have generated much debate. Failure of geological proxies to yield metrics capable of distinguishing between rainfall seasonality induced by migrations of the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) from that attributable to topographically modified seasonal pressure reversals has frustrated attempts to understand mechanisms underpinning monsoon development and dynamics. Here we circumvent the use of such single climate parameter metrics in favor of detecting directly the distinctive attributes of different monsoon regimes encoded in leaf fossils. Leaf form adapts to the prevailing climate, particularly under the extreme seasonal stresses imposed by monsoons, so it is likely that fossil leaves carry a unique signature of past monsoon regimes. Leaf form trait spectra obtained from fossils from Eocene basins in southern China were compared with those seen in modern leaves growing under known climate regimes. The fossil leaf trait spectra, including those derived from previously published fossil floras from northwestern India, were most similar to those found in vegetation exposed to the modern Indonesia-Australia Monsoon (I-AM), which is largely a product of seasonal migrations of the ITCZ. The presence of this distinctive leaf physiognomic signature suggests that although a monsoon climate existed in Eocene time across southern Asia the characteristics of the modern topographically-enhanced South Asia Monsoon had yet to develop. By the Eocene leaves in South Asia had become well adapted to an I-AM type regime across many taxa and points to the existence of a pervasive monsoon climate prior to the Eocene. No fossil trait spectra typical of exposure to the modern East Asia monsoon were seen, suggesting the effects of this system in southern

  17. Reduction of uncertainty associated with future changes in Indian summer monsoon projected by climate models and assessment of monsoon teleconnections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajendran, Kavirajan; Surendran, Sajani; Kitoh, Akio; Varghese, Stella Jes

    2016-05-01

    Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) coupled global climate model (CGCM) Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) simulations project clear future temperature increase but diverse changes in Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) with substantial inter-model spread. Robust signals of projected changes are derived based on objective criteria and the physically consistent simulations with the highest reliability suggest future reduction in the frequency of light rainfall but increase in high to extreme rainfall. The role of equatorial Indian and Pacific Oceans on the projected changes in monsoon rainfall is investigated. The results of coupled model projections are also compared with the corresponding projections from high resolution AGCM time-slice, multi-physics and multi-forcing ensemble experiments.

  18. Impacts of intraseasonal oscillation on the onset and interannual variation of the Indian summer monsoon

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    QI YanJun; ZHANG RenHe; LI Tim; WEN Min

    2009-01-01

    The role of the intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) on the seasonal and interannual variations of the Indian summer monsoon is investigated based on the analysis of observational data. It is shown that the ISO significantly contributes to the establishment of low-level westerlies during the monsoon onset and developing periods. The effect of the ISO on the annual cycle of the monsoon is through nonlinear eddy momentum transport. On the interannual timescale, the Indian summer monsoon rainfall exhibits a significant out-of-phase relationship with the ISO intensity over the Indian monsoon region. In strong ISO years it appears the weak monsoon when there is an abnormal high over the India subcontinent in the lower troposphere. In weak ISO years there exists an abnormal low and the strong monsoon ap-pears.

  19. Spatio-temporal variability of rainfall regime in the Brahmaputra valley of North East India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deka, R. L.; Mahanta, C.; Nath, K. K.; Dutta, M. K.

    2016-05-01

    Monthly rainfall data, spanning over 110 years (1901-2010), were utilized for trend analysis at different spatial and temporal scales over the Brahmaputra valley, India. The Mann-Kendall statistic and Sen's slope model were used to identify the trends and estimate the magnitude of change, respectively. Statistical significance of the decadal shifts in rainfall from the overall mean was estimated by using Cramer's test. The analysis revealed decrease in annual as well as monsoon rainfall in the Brahmaputra valley during the last 110 years with large spatial and temporal variations. These decreasing trends of rainfall in the eastern part of the valley were statistically significant. Significant decreasing trend of monsoon rainfall during the recent 30-year period was due to significant decrease of July and September rainfall, and this trend was found to be consistent at different spatial scales. In the last decade (2001-2010) in particular, monsoon rainfall exhibited significant negative deviation from the normal due to three deficient years and absence of excess rainfall years. On the contrary, contribution of pre-monsoon and post-monsoon rainfall to annual total in the Brahmaputra valley increased during the recent 30-year period. Winter rainfall in the valley decreased during the last 30 years due to significant decrease of December rainfall in the eastern and central parts.

  20. Dynamics of Projected Changes in South Asian Summer Monsoon Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kulkarni, A.; Sabade, S.; Kripalani, R.

    2011-12-01

    South Asian summer monsoon (June through September) rainfall simulation and its potential future changes are evaluated in a multi-model ensemble of global coupled climate models outputs under World Climate Research Program Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (WCRP CMIP3) data set. The response of South Asian summer monsoon to a transient increase in future anthropogenic radiative forcing is investigated for two time slices , middle (2031-2050) and end of the 21st century (2081-2100) in the non-mitigated Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) B1, A1B and A2 .There is large inter-model variability in simulation of spatial characteristics of seasonal monsoon precipitation. Ten out of 25 models are able to simulate space-time characteristics of South Asian monsoon precipitation reasonably well. The response of these selected 10 models have been examined for projected changes in seasonal monsoon rainfall. The multi-model ensemble of these 10 models project significant increase in monsoon precipitation with global warming. The substantial increase in precipitation is observed over western equatorial Indian Ocean and southern parts of India. However the monsoon circulation weakens significantly under all the three climate change experiments. Possible mechanisms for projected increase in precipitation and for precipitation-wind paradox have been discussed. The surface temperature over Asian landmass increases in pre-monsoon months due to global warming and heat low over north-west India intensifies. The dipole snow configuration over Eurasian continent strengthens in warmer atmosphere which is conducive for enhancement in precipitation over Indian landmass. The increase in precipitation is mainly contributed by the substantial increase in water vapor content in the atmosphere. No notable changes have been projected in the El Nino-Monsoon relationship.

  1. Meteorological fields variability over the Indian seas in pre and summer monsoon months during extreme monsoon seasons

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    U C Mohanty; R Bhatla; P V S Raju; O P Madan; A Sarkar

    2002-09-01

    In this study, the possible linkage between summer monsoon rainfall over India and surface meteorological fields (basic fields and heat budget components) over monsoon region (30° E-120°E, 30°S-30°N) during the pre-monsoon month of May and summer monsoon season (June to September) are examined. For this purpose, monthly surface meteorological fields anomaly are analyzed for 42 years (1958-1999) using reanalysis data of NCEP/NCAR (National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research). The statistical significance of the anomaly (difference) between the surplus and deficient monsoon years in the surface meteorological fields are also examined by Student's t-test at 95% confidence level. Significant negative anomalies of mean sea level pressure are observed over India, Arabian Sea and Arabian Peninsular in the pre-monsoon month of May and monsoon season. Significant positive anomalies in the zonal and meridional wind (at 2m) in the month of May are observed in the west Arabian Sea off Somali coast and for monsoon season it is in the central Arabian Sea that extends up to Somalia. Significant positive anomalies of the surface temperature and air temperature (at 2m) in the month of May are observed over north India and adjoining Pakistan and Afghanistan region. During monsoon season this region is replaced by significant negative anomalies. In the month of May, significant positive anomalies of cloud amount are observed over Somali coast, north Bay of Bengal and adjoining West Bengal and Bangladesh. During monsoon season, cloud amount shows positive anomalies over NW India and north Arabian Sea. There is overall reduction in the incoming shortwave radiation flux during surplus monsoon years. A higher magnitude of latent heat flux is also found in surplus monsoon years for the month of May as well as the monsoon season. The significant positive anomaly of latent heat flux in May, observed over southwest Arabian Sea, may be considered

  2. Sub-seasonal behaviour of Asian summer monsoon under a changing climate: assessments using CMIP5 models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sooraj, K. P.; Terray, Pascal; Xavier, Prince

    2016-06-01

    Numerous global warming studies show the anticipated increase in mean precipitation with the rising levels of carbon dioxide concentration. However, apart from the changes in mean precipitation, the finer details of daily precipitation distribution, such as its intensity and frequency (so called daily rainfall extremes), need to be accounted for while determining the impacts of climate changes in future precipitation regimes. Here we examine the climate model projections from a large set of Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project 5 models, to assess these future aspects of rainfall distribution over Asian summer monsoon (ASM) region. Our assessment unravels a north-south rainfall dipole pattern, with increased rainfall over Indian subcontinent extending into the western Pacific region (north ASM region, NASM) and decreased rainfall over equatorial oceanic convergence zone over eastern Indian Ocean region (south ASM region, SASM). This robust future pattern is well conspicuous at both seasonal and sub-seasonal time scales. Subsequent analysis, using daily rainfall events defined using percentile thresholds, demonstrates that mean rainfall changes over NASM region are mainly associated with more intense and more frequent extreme rainfall events (i.e. above 95th percentile). The inference is that there are significant future changes in rainfall probability distributions and not only a uniform shift in the mean rainfall over the NASM region. Rainfall suppression over SASM seems to be associated with changes involving multiple rainfall events and shows a larger model spread, thus making its interpretation more complex compared to NASM. Moisture budget diagnostics generally show that the low-level moisture convergence, due to stronger increase of water vapour in the atmosphere, acts positively to future rainfall changes, especially for heaviest rainfall events. However, it seems that the dynamic component of moisture convergence, associated with vertical motion, shows a

  3. Aerosols and contrasting monsoon conditions over the Himalayan region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Charu; Ganguly, Dilip; Dash, S. K.

    2016-05-01

    Impact of aerosols on the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) variability is well documented; however there are limited studies which have quantified the role of aerosols in modifying the amount of rainfall. To address this research problem, we make use of the remotely sensed data set of precipitation and aerosols from different observations. In the present study remotely sensed precipitation data set has been utilised to define contrasting monsoon conditions over the Himalayan region. As per the classical definition, active and break spells are defined over the central part of the Indian land region, and during the break spells over the central Indian region, the Himalayan region receives substantial amount of rainfall. It is found that accumulation of more dust over the Uttarakhand region significantly (negative correlation with rainfall; significant at 5% significance level) suppresses the rainfall during break spells. We propose that the substantial aerosol loading and its associated dynamical feedback over the Himalayan foothills may have considerable impact on the amount of rainfall over the mountainous regions of the Indian subcontinent. Results presented in this paper are supported by the statistically robust significance test and would be useful to develop the understanding of the role of aerosols in modulating the rainfall intensity during the summer monsoon season.

  4. Asian summer monsoon anomalies induced by aerosol direct forcing: the role of the Tibetan Plateau

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lau, K.M. [NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Laboratory for Atmospheres, Greenbelt, MD (United States); Kim, M.K. [Kongju National University, Department of Atmospheric Science, Gongju (Korea); Kim, K.M. [Science Systems and Applications, Inc, Lanham, MD (United States)

    2006-06-15

    In this paper we present results of a numerical study using the NASA finite-volume GCM to elucidate a plausible mechanism for aerosol impact on the Asian summer monsoon involving interaction with physical processes over the Tibetan Plateau (TP). During the pre-monsoon season of March-April, dusts from the deserts of western China, Afghanistan/Pakistan, and the Middle East are transported into and stacked up against the northern and southern slopes of the TP. The absorption of solar radiation by dust heats up the elevated surface air over the slopes. On the southern slopes, the atmospheric heating is reinforced by black carbon from local emission. The heated air rises via dry convection, creating a positive temperature anomaly in the mid-to-upper troposphere over the TP relative to the region to the south. In May through early June in a manner akin to an ''elevated heat pump'', the rising hot air forced by the increasing heating in the upper troposphere, draws in warm and moist air over the Indian subcontinent, setting the stage for the onset of the South Asia summer monsoon. Our results suggest that increased dust loading coupled with black carbon emission from local sources in northern India during late spring may lead to an advance of the rainy periods and subsequently an intensification of the Indian summer monsoon. The enhanced rainfall over India is associated with the development of an aerosol-induced large-scale sea level pressure anomaly pattern, which causes the East Asia (Mei-yu) rain belt to shift northwestward, suppressing rainfall over East Asia and the adjacent oceanic regions. (orig.)

  5. Rainfall generation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharma, Ashish; Mehrotra, Raj

    This chapter presents an overview of methods for stochastic generation of rainfall at annual to subdaily time scales, at single- to multiple-point locations, and in a changing climatic regime. Stochastic rainfall generators are used to provide inputs for risk assessment of natural or engineering systems that can undergo failure under sustained (high or low) extremes. As a result, generation of rainfall has evolved to provide options that adequately represent such conditions, leading to sequences that exhibit low-frequency variability of a nature similar to the observed rainfall. The chapter consists of three key sections: the first two outlining approaches for rainfall generation using endogenous predictor variables and the third highlighting approaches for generation using exogenous predictors often simulated to represent future climatic conditions. The first section presents approaches for generation of annual and seasonal rainfall and daily rainfall, both at single-point locations and multiple sites, with an emphasis on alternatives that ensure appropriate representation of low-frequency variability in the generated rainfall sequences. The second section highlights advancements in the subdaily rainfall generation procedures including commonly used approaches for daily to subdaily rainfall generation. The final section (generation using exogenous predictors) presents a range of alternatives for stochastic downscaling of rainfall for climate change impact assessments of natural and engineering systems. We conclude the chapter by outlining some of the key challenges that remain to be addressed, especially in generation under climate change conditions, with an emphasis on the importance of incorporating uncertainty present in both measurements and models, in the rainfall sequences that are generated.

  6. Monsoons, history of

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Niitsuma, N.; Naidu, P.D.

    The evolution of the Asian monsoon started at around 9.5 Ma, in response to the uplift of the Himalayas. The monsoonal intensity reached its maximum at around 5 Ma, and from that time the associated easterly trade winds caused intense upwelling...

  7. Temporal Variation of Rainfall Intensity, Rainfall Partitioning and its Correlation with Meteorological Elements of Eastern India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tripathi, P.; Chaturvedi, A.

    2007-07-01

    Rainfall plays a vital role in Indian agriculture hence economy of the country, but very crucial and risky due to its erratic/ unpredictable behavior and uneven distribution. Since monsoonal vagaries in eastern India are very frequent hence involve a great risk in Argil. Production and quality of atmosphere at desired level. Though prediction of onset of monsoon with total quantum of rainfall is available through different agencies but still not accurate and not in consonance of observed behavior. Therefore, surface weather data of meteorological elements needs to be critically examined for prediction of onset of monsoon, rainfall rate and its variability with space and time and strategy to cope the uncertainty of risk (drought and flood etc) needs to be evolved. In the present study an analysis of rainfall of Eastern India (Eastern U.P., Bihar and Jharkhand) has been made for rainfall partitioning, rate of rainfall and its variation with space and time. A location specific six parameter model were developed with multiple correlation technique to predict the medium and long range rainfall forecast and found 65% accurate for long range and 79% accurate to medium range. This will not only help to predict the accurate rainfall but also provides a clue for assessment of quality of rainfall under different aerosol levels of atmosphere which ultimately led to link designers with radio wave propagation. In addition, correlation of physical variables of atmosphere like vapor pressure deficit, dew point and relative humidity were also made with quantum of rainfall, rate of rainfall and its quantitative characteristics in the study area as to understand the mechanism behavior of atmosphere for space research.

  8. Investigation of dominant modes of monsoon ISO in the northwest and eastern Himalayan region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mukherjee, Sandipan; Ballav, Srabanti; Soni, Sandeep; Kumar, Kireet; Kumar De, Utpal

    2016-08-01

    This study investigates the altitudinal variation of dominant modes of summer monsoon intra-seasonal oscillation (ISO) over the Northwest (NWH) and Eastern Himalayan (EH) region using (i) spatially scattered 133 number of station rainfall observations and (ii) latitudinal transect-wise (LT) rainfall variation, obtained from an observed interpolated gridded rainfall data for the period 1995-2004. The altitudinal variation of dominant modes of monsoon ISO were investigated by exploring the strong and weak phases of the principal components of 10-90 days bandpass rainfall data of June to September with respect to location specific station height. Investigation of frequency of days for light and moderate rainfall along with the occurrence of total seasonal rainy days has revealed existence of a rainfall maximum around 2100 m height for the NWH region. Similarly, the total seasonal rainy days of EH region was found to have maxima between 1100 and 1400 m height. Analyses of the spatially scattered station rainfall observation for the NWH region showed that the strong periods of ISO modes exist around 747.9 (±131.7) m and 2227.2 (±100.2) m heights. Over the EH region, the dominant modes of the monsoon ISO were found to be centred around 1200 m. Significant alterations of strong and weak phases of monsoon ISO as a response to altitudinal variation in the mountain surface were observed when latitudinal transect-wise variation of monsoon ISO modes were investigated.

  9. Simulation of High Impact Rainfall Events Over Southeastern Hilly Region of Bangladesh Using MM5 Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. N. Ahasan

    2013-01-01

    biases in the rainfall pattern. The model suggests that the highly localized high impact rainfall was the result of an interaction of the mesoscale severe convective processes with the large scale active monsoon system.

  10. Sensitivity of North Patagonian temperate rainforests to changes in rainfall regimes: a process-based, dynamic forest model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gutiérrez, A. G.; Armesto, J. J.; Díaz, M. F.; Huth, A.

    2012-06-01

    Rainfall changes due to climate change and their potential impacts on forests demand the development of predictable tools coupling vegetation dynamics to hydrologic processes. Such tools need to be accurate at local scales (i.e. forest management strategies for climate change adaptation. In this study, we developed and tested a dynamic forest model to predict hydrological balance of North Patagonian temperate rainforests on Chiloé Island, Chile (42° S). The developed model includes detailed calculations of forest water fluxes and incorporates the dynamical linkage of rainfall regimes to soil moisture, and individual tree growth. We confronted model results with detailed field measurements of water fluxes in a young secondary stand (YS). We used the model to compare forest sensitivity in the YS and an old-growth stand (OG, > 500 yr-old), i.e. changes in forest evapotranspiration, soil moisture and forest structure (biomass and basal area). We evaluated sensitivity using changes in rainfall regimes comparable to future climatic scenarios for this century in the study region. The model depicted well the hydrological balance of temperate rainforests. We found a higher evapotranspiration in OG than YS under current climatic conditions. Dryer climatic conditions predicted for this century in the study area led to changes in the hydrological balance that impacted forest structure, with stronger impacts in OG. Changes in climatic parameters decreased evapotranspiration (up to 15 % in OG compared to current values) and soil moisture to 32 % . These changes in water fluxes induced decreases in above-ground biomass in OG (up to 27 %). Our results support the use of the model for detailed analyses of climate change impacts on hydrological balance of forests. Also, it provides a tool suitable for analyses of the impacts of multiple drivers of global change on forest processes (e.g., climate change, fragmentation, forest management).

  11. Surface temperature pattern of the Indian Ocean before summer monsoon

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Gopinathan, C.K.; Rao, D.P.

    , suggests that the position of the warmer areas in the Bay of Bengal in May is an indicator of the subsequent summer rainfall over India. The statistical method adopted for the long range forcasting of the Indian summer monsoon gives very little...

  12. Aerosol and monsoon climate interactions over Asia: AEROSOL AND MONSOON CLIMATE INTERACTIONS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Li, Zhanqing [State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology and College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing China; Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science and ESSIC, University of Maryland, College Park Maryland USA; Lau, W. K. -M. [Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science and ESSIC, University of Maryland, College Park Maryland USA; Ramanathan, V. [Department of Atmospheric and Climate Sciences, University of California, San Diego California USA; Wu, G. [Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing China; Ding, Y. [National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing China; Manoj, M. G. [Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science and ESSIC, University of Maryland, College Park Maryland USA; Liu, J. [Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science and ESSIC, University of Maryland, College Park Maryland USA; Qian, Y. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Li, J. [State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology and College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing China; Zhou, T. [Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing China; Fan, J. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Rosenfeld, D. [Institute of Earth Sciences, Hebrew University, Jerusalem Israel; Ming, Y. [Geophysical Fluid Dynamic Laboratory, NOAA, Princeton New Jersey USA; Wang, Y. [Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena California USA; Huang, J. [College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou China; Wang, B. [Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Hawaii, Honolulu Hawaii USA; School of Atmospheric Physics, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing China; Xu, X. [Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing China; Lee, S. -S. [Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science and ESSIC, University of Maryland, College Park Maryland USA; Cribb, M. [Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science and ESSIC, University of Maryland, College Park Maryland USA; Zhang, F. [State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology and College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing China; Yang, X. [State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology and College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing China; Zhao, C. [State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology and College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing China; Takemura, T. [Research Institute for Applied Mechanics, Kyushu University, Fukuoka Japan; Wang, K. [State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology and College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing China; Xia, X. [Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing China; Yin, Y. [School of Atmospheric Physics, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing China; Zhang, H. [National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing China; Guo, J. [Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing China; Zhai, P. M. [Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing China; Sugimoto, N. [National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba Japan; Babu, S. S. [Space Physics Laboratory, Vikram Sarabhai Space Centre, Thiruvananthapuram India; Brasseur, G. P. [Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg Germany

    2016-11-15

    Asian monsoons and aerosols have been studied extensively which are intertwined in influencing the climate of Asia. This paper provides a comprehensive review of ample studies on Asian aerosol, monsoon and their interactions. The region is the primary source of aerosol emissions of varies species, influenced by distinct weather and climatic regimes. On continental scale, aerosols reduce surface insolation and weaken the land-ocean thermal contrast, thus inhibiting the development of monsoons. Locally, aerosol radiative effects alter the thermodynamic stability and convective potential of the lower atmosphere leading to reduced temperatures, increased atmospheric stability, and weakened wind and atmospheric circulation. The atmospheric thermodynamic state may also be altered by the aerosol serving as cloud condensation nuclei or ice nuclei. Many mechanisms have been put forth regarding how aerosols modulate the amplitude, frequency, intensity, and phase of numerous monsoon climate variables. A wide range of theoretical, observational, and modeling findings on the Asian monsoon, aerosols, and their interactions are synthesized. A new paradigm is proposed on investigating aerosol-monsoon interactions, in which natural aerosols such as desert dust, black carbon from biomass burning, and biogenic aerosols from vegetation are considered integral components of an intrinsic aerosol-monsoon climate system, subject to external forcings of global warming, anthropogenic aerosols, and land use and change. Future research on aerosol-monsoon interactions calls for an integrated approach and international collaborations based on long-term sustained observations, process measurements, and improved models, as well as using observations to constrain model simulations and projections.

  13. Rainfall simulation in education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peters, Piet; Baartman, Jantiene; Gooren, Harm; Keesstra, Saskia

    2016-04-01

    Rainfall simulation has become an important method for the assessment of soil erosion and soil hydrological processes. For students, rainfall simulation offers an year-round, attractive and active way of experiencing water erosion, while not being dependent on (outdoors) weather conditions. Moreover, using rainfall simulation devices, they can play around with different conditions, including rainfall duration, intensity, soil type, soil cover, soil and water conservation measures, etc. and evaluate their effect on erosion and sediment transport. Rainfall simulators differ in design and scale. At Wageningen University, both BSc and MSc student of the curriculum 'International Land and Water Management' work with different types of rainfall simulation devices in three courses: - A mini rainfall simulator (0.0625m2) is used in the BSc level course 'Introduction to Land Degradation and Remediation'. Groups of students take the mini rainfall simulator with them to a nearby field location and test it for different soil types, varying from clay to more sandy, slope angles and vegetation or litter cover. The groups decide among themselves which factors they want to test and they compare their results and discuss advantage and disadvantage of the mini-rainfall simulator. - A medium sized rainfall simulator (0.238 m2) is used in the MSc level course 'Sustainable Land and Water Management', which is a field practical in Eastern Spain. In this course, a group of students has to develop their own research project and design their field measurement campaign using the transportable rainfall simulator. - Wageningen University has its own large rainfall simulation laboratory, in which a 15 m2 rainfall simulation facility is available for research. In the BSc level course 'Land and Water Engineering' Student groups will build slopes in the rainfall simulator in specially prepared containers. Aim is to experience the behaviour of different soil types or slope angles when (heavy) rain

  14. Role of physical processes in the distribution of chlorophyll a in the northwest Bay of Bengal during pre and post-monsoon seasons

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Sarma, V.V.; Sadhuram, Y.; Sravanthi, N.A; Tripathy, S.C.

    Distribution of Chlorophyll–a (Chl–a) in the north west Bay of Bengal during pre-monsoon (4-15th and 21-28th March) and post-monsoon (5-12th and 13-19th October) seasons of 2000 has been reported from MODIS. These are compared with the in situ...

  15. Rainfall variability modelling in Rwanda

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nduwayezu, E.; Kanevski, M.; Jaboyedoff, M.

    2012-04-01

    Support to climate change adaptation is a priority in many International Organisations meetings. But is the international approach for adaptation appropriate with field reality in developing countries? In Rwanda, the main problems will be heavy rain and/or long dry season. Four rainfall seasons have been identified, corresponding to the four thermal Earth ones in the south hemisphere: the normal season (summer), the rainy season (autumn), the dry season (winter) and the normo-rainy season (spring). The spatial rainfall decreasing from West to East, especially in October (spring) and February (summer) suggests an «Atlantic monsoon influence» while the homogeneous spatial rainfall distribution suggests an «Inter-tropical front » mechanism. The torrential rainfall that occurs every year in Rwanda disturbs the circulation for many days, damages the houses and, more seriously, causes heavy losses of people. All districts are affected by bad weather (heavy rain) but the costs of such events are the highest in mountains districts. The objective of the current research is to proceed to an evaluation of the potential rainfall risk by applying advanced geospatial modelling tools in Rwanda: geostatistical predictions and simulations, machine learning algorithm (different types of neural networks) and GIS. The research will include rainfalls variability mapping and probabilistic analyses of extreme events.

  16. Large scale features and assessment of spatial scale correspondence between TMPA and IMD rainfall datasets over Indian landmass

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    R Uma; T V Lakshmi Kumar; M S Narayanan; M Rajeevan; Jyoti Bhate; K Niranjan Kumar

    2013-06-01

    Daily rainfall datasets of 10 years (1998–2007) of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) version 6 and India Meteorological Department (IMD) gridded rain gauge have been compared over the Indian landmass, both in large and small spatial scales. On the larger spatial scale, the pattern correlation between the two datasets on daily scales during individual years of the study period is ranging from 0.4 to 0.7. The correlation improved significantly (∼0.9) when the study was confined to specific wet and dry spells each of about 5–8 days. Wavelet analysis of intraseasonal oscillations (ISO) of the southwest monsoon rainfall show the percentage contribution of the major two modes (30–50 days and 10–20 days), to be ranging respectively between ∼30–40% and 5–10% for the various years. Analysis of inter-annual variability shows the satellite data to be underestimating seasonal rainfall by ∼110 mm during southwest monsoon and overestimating by ∼150 mm during northeast monsoon season. At high spatio-temporal scales, viz., 1° × 1° grid, TMPA data do not correspond to ground truth. We have proposed here a new analysis procedure to assess the minimum spatial scale at which the two datasets are compatible with each other. This has been done by studying the contribution to total seasonal rainfall from different rainfall rate windows (at 1 mm intervals) on different spatial scales (at daily time scale). The compatibility spatial scale is seen to be beyond 5° × 5° average spatial scale over the Indian landmass. This will help to decide the usability of TMPA products, if averaged at appropriate spatial scales, for specific process studies, e.g., cloud scale, meso scale or synoptic scale.

  17. Understanding the Asian summer monsoon response to greenhouse warming: the relative roles of direct radiative forcing and sea surface temperature change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Xiaoqiong; Ting, Mingfang

    2016-12-01

    Future hydroclimate projections from state-of-the-art climate models show large uncertainty and model spread, particularly in the tropics and over the monsoon regions. The precipitation and circulation responses to rising greenhouse gases involve a fast component associated with direct radiative forcing and a slow component associated with sea surface temperature (SST) warming; the relative importance of the two may contribute to model discrepancies. In this study, regional hydroclimate responses to greenhouse warming are assessed using output from coupled general circulation models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-Phase 5 (CMIP5) and idealized atmospheric general circulation model experiments from the Atmosphere Model Intercomparison Project. The thermodynamic and dynamic mechanisms causing the rainfall changes are examined using moisture budget analysis. Results show that direct radiative forcing and SST change exert significantly different responses both over land and ocean. For most part of the Asian monsoon region, the summertime rainfall changes are dominated by the direct CO2 radiative effect through enhanced monsoon circulation. The response to SST warming shows a larger model spread compared to direct radiative forcing, possibly due to the cancellation between the thermodynamical and dynamical components. While the thermodynamical response of the Asian monsoon is robust across the models, there is a lack of consensus for the dynamical response among the models and weak multi-model mean responses in the CMIP5 ensemble, which may be related to the multiple physical processes evolving on different time scales.

  18. AN EAST ASIAN SUBTROPICAL SUMMER MONSOON INDEX DEFINED BY MOISTURE TRANSPORT

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LIANG Ping; TANG Xu; HE Jin-hai; CHEN Long-xun

    2008-01-01

    Using daily NCEP/NCAR reanalysis dataset and observation rainfall data in China for the 1971- 2000 period, a subtropical summer monsoon index has been defined by meridional moisture transport of the total atmosphere column. Results show that the subtropical summer monsoon index defined by the difference of meridional moisture transport between South China and North China can be used to describe the intensity of the subtropical summer monsoon. High (low) index is corresponding to strong (weak) subtropical summer monsoon. And the new index is well related to the summer rainfall over the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River. In addition, the convergence of moisture transport from the west Pacific via the South China Sea and that from the North China may be responsible for the anomalously excessive summer rainfall over the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River.

  19. The Indian summer monsoon as revealed by NCMRWF system

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    P L S Rao; U C Mohanty; P V S Raju; Gopal Iyengar

    2003-03-01

    In this study, we present the mean seasonal features of the Indian summer monsoon circulation in the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) global data assimilation and forecast system. The large-scale budgets of heat and moisture are examined in the analyzed and model atmosphere. The daily operational analyses and forecasts (day 1 through day 5) produced for the summer seasons comprising June, July and August of 1995 and 1993 have been considered for the purpose. The principal aim of the study is two-fold. Primarily, to comprehend the influence of the systematic errors over the Indian summer monsoon, secondarily, to analyze the performance of the model in capturing the interseasonal variability. The heat and moisture balances show reduction in the influx of heat and moisture in the model forecasts compared to the analyzed atmosphere over the monsoon domain. Consequently, the diabatic heating also indicates reducing trend with increase in the forecast period. In effect, the strength of Indian summer monsoon, which essentially depends on these parameters, weakens considerably in the model forecasts. Despite producing feeble monsoon circulation, the model captures interseasonal variability realistically. Although, 1995 and 1993 are fairly normal monsoon seasons, the former received more rainfall compared to the latter in certain pockets of the monsoon domain. This is clearly indicated by the analyzed and model atmosphere in terms of energetics.

  20. The relationship between the Guinea Highlands and the West African offshore rainfall maximum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamilton, H. L.; Young, G. S.; Evans, J. L.; Fuentes, J. D.; Núñez Ocasio, K. M.

    2017-01-01

    Satellite rainfall estimates reveal a consistent rainfall maximum off the West African coast during the monsoon season. An analysis of 16 years of rainfall in the monsoon season is conducted to explore the drivers of such copious amounts of rainfall. Composites of daily rainfall and midlevel meridional winds centered on the days with maximum rainfall show that the day with the heaviest rainfall follows the strongest midlevel northerlies but coincides with peak low-level moisture convergence. Rain type composites show that convective rain dominates the study region. The dominant contribution to the offshore rainfall maximum is convective development driven by the enhancement of upslope winds near the Guinea Highlands. The enhancement in the upslope flow is closely related to African easterly waves propagating off the continent that generate low-level cyclonic vorticity and convergence. Numerical simulations reproduce the observed rainfall maximum and indicate that it weakens if the African topography is reduced.

  1. The Aerosol-Monsoon Climate System of Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, William K. M.; Kyu-Myong, Kim

    2012-01-01

    In Asian monsoon countries such as China and India, human health and safety problems caused by air-pollution are worsening due to the increased loading of atmospheric pollutants stemming from rising energy demand associated with the rapid pace of industrialization and modernization. Meanwhile, uneven distribution of monsoon rain associated with flash flood or prolonged drought, has caused major loss of human lives, and damages in crop and properties with devastating societal impacts on Asian countries. Historically, air-pollution and monsoon research are treated as separate problems. However a growing number of recent studies have suggested that the two problems may be intrinsically intertwined and need to be studied jointly. Because of complexity of the dynamics of the monsoon systems, aerosol impacts on monsoons and vice versa must be studied and understood in the context of aerosol forcing in relationship to changes in fundamental driving forces of the monsoon climate system (e.g. sea surface temperature, land-sea contrast etc.) on time scales from intraseasonal variability (weeks) to climate change ( multi-decades). Indeed, because of the large contributions of aerosols to the global and regional energy balance of the atmosphere and earth surface, and possible effects of the microphysics of clouds and precipitation, a better understanding of the response to climate change in Asian monsoon regions requires that aerosols be considered as an integral component of a fully coupled aerosol-monsoon system on all time scales. In this paper, using observations and results from climate modeling, we will discuss the coherent variability of the coupled aerosol-monsoon climate system in South Asia and East Asia, including aerosol distribution and types, with respect to rainfall, moisture, winds, land-sea thermal contrast, heat sources and sink distributions in the atmosphere in seasonal, interannual to climate change time scales. We will show examples of how elevated

  2. Rainfall Distributions in Sri Lanka in Time and Space: An Analysis Based on Daily Rainfall Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. P. Burt

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Daily rainfall totals are analyzed for the main agro-climatic zones of Sri Lanka for the period 1976–2006. The emphasis is on daily rainfall rather than on longer-period totals, in particular the number of daily falls exceeding given threshold totals. For one station (Mapalana, where a complete daily series is available from 1950, a longer-term perspective on changes over half a century is provided. The focus here is particularly on rainfall in March and April, given the sensitivity of agricultural decisions to early southwest monsoon rainfall at the beginning of the Yala cultivation season but other seasons are also considered, in particular the northeast monsoon. Rainfall across Sri Lanka over three decades is investigated in relation to the main atmospheric drivers known to affect climate in the region: sea surface temperatures in the Pacific and Indian Oceans, of which the former are shown to be more important. The strong influence of El Niño and La Niña phases on various aspects of the daily rainfall distribution in Sri Lanka is confirmed: positive correlations with Pacific sea-surface temperatures during the north east monsoon and negative correlations at other times. It is emphasized in the discussion that Sri Lanka must be placed in its regional context and it is important to draw on regional-scale research across the Indian subcontinent and the Bay of Bengal.

  3. Experimental research on the influence of two cultivation practices on rainfall runoff- and (sandy and muddy) sediment-generating processes in purple soil environment

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    XU Pei; WANG Yukuan; FU Bin

    2008-01-01

    Rainfall simulations have been conducted to study the soil erosion process of purple soil in two cultivation practices-contour cultivation and downslope cultivation. Results showed that under the two cultivation practices, the surface runoff can be described by the logarithmic function formula. In the initial period of rainfall, the amount of runoff increased with the rainfall duration and 20 minutes later it became relatively constant. The changing process of soil erosion rate may be described by the logarithmic function formula. The erosion rate increased with the rainfall duration and 20 minutes later it also became constant. Under downslope cultivation condition, the soil erosion rate increased more significantly than that under contour cultivation condition in the case of of gentle rainfall intensity, and there is no obvious difference in erosion rate for downslope cultivation and contour cultivation practices. However, with increasing rainfall intensity the soil erosion rate under the downslope cultivation condition could be more than 30 times that under the contour cultivation condition. But this kind of difference would be reduced to some extent in the case of heavy rain.

  4. An assessment of Indian monsoon seasonal forecasts and mechanisms underlying monsoon interannual variability in the Met Office GloSea5-GC2 system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Stephanie J.; Turner, Andrew; Woolnough, Steven; Martin, Gill; MacLachlan, Craig

    2017-03-01

    We assess Indian summer monsoon seasonal forecasts in GloSea5-GC2, the Met Office fully coupled subseasonal to seasonal ensemble forecasting system. Using several metrics, GloSea5-GC2 shows similar skill to other state-of-the-art seasonal forecast systems. The prediction skill of the large-scale South Asian monsoon circulation is higher than that of Indian monsoon rainfall. Using multiple linear regression analysis we evaluate relationships between Indian monsoon rainfall and five possible drivers of monsoon interannual variability. Over the time period studied (1992-2011), the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) are the most important of these drivers in both observations and GloSea5-GC2. Our analysis indicates that ENSO and its teleconnection with Indian rainfall are well represented in GloSea5-GC2. However, the relationship between the IOD and Indian rainfall anomalies is too weak in GloSea5-GC2, which may be limiting the prediction skill of the local monsoon circulation and Indian rainfall. We show that this weak relationship likely results from a coupled mean state bias that limits the impact of anomalous wind forcing on SST variability, resulting in erroneous IOD SST anomalies. Known difficulties in representing convective precipitation over India may also play a role. Since Indian rainfall responds weakly to the IOD, it responds more consistently to ENSO than in observations. Our assessment identifies specific coupled biases that are likely limiting GloSea5-GC2 Indian summer monsoon seasonal prediction skill, providing targets for model improvement.

  5. An assessment of Indian monsoon seasonal forecasts and mechanisms underlying monsoon interannual variability in the Met Office GloSea5-GC2 system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Stephanie J.; Turner, Andrew; Woolnough, Steven; Martin, Gill; MacLachlan, Craig

    2016-06-01

    We assess Indian summer monsoon seasonal forecasts in GloSea5-GC2, the Met Office fully coupled subseasonal to seasonal ensemble forecasting system. Using several metrics, GloSea5-GC2 shows similar skill to other state-of-the-art seasonal forecast systems. The prediction skill of the large-scale South Asian monsoon circulation is higher than that of Indian monsoon rainfall. Using multiple linear regression analysis we evaluate relationships between Indian monsoon rainfall and five possible drivers of monsoon interannual variability. Over the time period studied (1992-2011), the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) are the most important of these drivers in both observations and GloSea5-GC2. Our analysis indicates that ENSO and its teleconnection with Indian rainfall are well represented in GloSea5-GC2. However, the relationship between the IOD and Indian rainfall anomalies is too weak in GloSea5-GC2, which may be limiting the prediction skill of the local monsoon circulation and Indian rainfall. We show that this weak relationship likely results from a coupled mean state bias that limits the impact of anomalous wind forcing on SST variability, resulting in erroneous IOD SST anomalies. Known difficulties in representing convective precipitation over India may also play a role. Since Indian rainfall responds weakly to the IOD, it responds more consistently to ENSO than in observations. Our assessment identifies specific coupled biases that are likely limiting GloSea5-GC2 Indian summer monsoon seasonal prediction skill, providing targets for model improvement.

  6. The impact of soil moisture on the spin up of 1-D Noah land surface model at a site in monsoonal region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhattacharya, A.; Mandal, M.

    2014-12-01

    Model spin-up is the process through which the model is adequately equilibrated to ensure balance between the mass fields and velocity fields. In this study, an offline 1-D Noah land surface model (LSM) has been used to investigate the impact of soil moisture on the model spin up at Kharagpur, India which is a site in monsoonal region. The model is integrated recursively for 3-years to assess its spin-up behavior. Several numerical experiments are performed to investigate the impact of initial soil moisture and subsequent dry or wet condition on model spin-up. These include simulations with different initial soil moisture content (observed soil moisture; dry soil; moderately wet soil; saturated soil), simulations initialized before different rain conditions (no rain; infrequent rain; continuous rain) and simulations initialized in different seasons (Winter, Spring, Summer/Pre-Monsoon, Monsoon and Autumn). It is noted that the model has significantly longer spin-up when initialized with very low initial soil moisture content than with higher soil moisture content. It is also seen that in general, simulations initialized just before a continuous rainfall event have the least spin-up time. In a region affected by the monsoon, such as Kharagpur, this observation is reinforced by the results from the simulations initialized in different seasons. It is seen that for monsoonal region, the model spin-up time is least for simulations initialized during Summer/Pre-monsoon. Model initialized during the Monsoon has a longer spin-up than that initialized in any other season. It appears that the model has shorter spin-up if it reaches the equilibrium state predominantly via drying process. It is also observed that the spin-up of offline 1-D Noah LSM may be as low as two months under quasi-equilibrium condition if the initial soil moisture content and time of start of simulations are chosen carefully.

  7. The impacts of Middle East dust on Indian summer rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Q.; Yang, Z. L.; Wei, J.

    2014-12-01

    Using the Weather Research and Forecasting model with online chemistry (WRF-Chem), the impact of Middle East dust aerosols on the Indian summer monsoon rainfall was studied. Eight numerical experiments were conducted to take into account uncertainties related to dust-absorbing properties, various assumptions used in calculating aerosol optical depth (AOD), and various radiation schemes. In order to obtain reasonable dust emission, model-simulated AOD and radiation forcing at the top of the atmosphere were compared with multiple satellite- and surface-based observations. Consistent with observations, modeled results show heavy dust loadings in the Arabian Peninsula and Pakistan, which can be transported through long distance to the Arabian Sea and the Indian Peninsula. By heating the atmosphere in the lower troposphere over the Iranian Plateau, these dust aerosols result in strengthened Indian summer monsoon circulations, which in turn transport more water vapor to the Indian Peninsula. The model shows that northern India becomes wetter during the monsoon season in dust cases than non-dust cases. Further observational analyses show an increasing trend in AOD over the Arabian Peninsula, which corresponds to an increasing trend of rainfall in northern India during summer monsoon seasons from 2000 to 2013. These observed trends of AOD and rainfall are consistent with the model-simulated positive relationship between Middle East dust and Indian summer monsoon rainfall. Our results highlight long-term (decadal) impacts of Middle East dust aerosols on the Indian summer rainfall.

  8. Possible Influences of Air Pollution, Dust and Sandstorms on the Indian Monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, William K. M.; Kim, Kyu-Myong; Hsu, Christina N.; Holben, Brent N.

    2010-01-01

    In Asian monsoon countries, such as China and India, human health and safety problems caused by air pollution are becoming increasingly serious, due to the increased loading of atmospheric pollutants from waste gas emissions and from rising energy demand associated with the rapid pace of industrialization and modernization. Meanwhile, uneven distribution of monsoon rain associated with flash floods or prolonged drought, has caused major loss of human life and damage to crops and.property with devastating societal impacts. Historically, air-pollution and monsoons research are treated as separate problems. However recent studies have suggested that the two problems may be intrinsically linked and need to be studied jointly. Fundamentally, aerosols can affect precipitation through radiative effects cif suspended particles in the atmosphere (direct effect) and/or by interfering and changing: the cloud and precipitation formation processes (indirect effect). Based on their optical properties, aerosols can be classified into two types.: those that absorb solar radiation, and those that do not. Both types of aerosols scatter sunlight and reduce the amount of solar radiation from reaching the Earth's surface, causing it to cool. The surface cooling increases atmospheric stability and reduces convection potential, Absorbing aerosols, however, in addition to cooling the surface, can heat the atmosphere. The heating of the atmosphere may reduce the amount of low clouds by increased evaporation in cloud drops. The heating, however, may induce rising motion, enhance low-level moisture, convergence and, hence, increases rainfall, The latent heating from enhanced rainfall may excite feedback processes in the large-scale circulation, further amplify.the initial response to aerosol heating and producing more rain. Additionally, aerosols can increase the concentration of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), increase cloud amount and decrease coalescence and collision rates, leading to

  9. Early forecasting of Indian Summer Monsoon: case study 2016

    Science.gov (United States)

    Surovyatkina, Elena; Stolbova, Veronika; Kurths, Jurgen

    2017-04-01

    The prior knowledge of dates of onset and withdrawal of monsoon is of vital importance for the population of the Indian subcontinent. In May 2016 before monsoon season, India recorded its highest-ever temperature of 51C. Hot waves have decimated crops, killed livestock and left 330 million people without enough water. At the end of monsoon season the floods in Indian this year have also broken previous records. Severe and devastating rainfall poured down, triggering dams spilling and floods. Such extreme conditions pose the vital questions such as: When will the monsoon come? When will the monsoon withdraw? More lead time in monsoon forecast warning is crucial for taking appropriate decisions at various levels - from the farmer's field (e.g. plowing day, seeding) to the central government (e.g. managing water and energy resources, food procurement policies). The Indian Meteorological Department issues forecasts of onset of monsoon for Kerala state in South India on May 15-th. It does not give such predictions for the other 28 states of the country. Our study concerns the central part of India. We made the monsoon forecast using our recently developed method which focuses on Tipping elements of the Indian monsoon [1]. Our prediction relies on observations of near-surface air temperature and relative humidity from both the ERA-40 and NCEP/NCAR reanalyses. We performed both of our forecasts for the onset and withdrawal of monsoon for the central part of India, the Eastern Ghats (20N,80E). We predicted the monsoon arrival to the Eastern Ghats (20N,80E) on the 13th of June with a deviation of +/-4 days. The prediction was made on May 6-th, 2016 [2], that is 40 days in advance of the date of the forecast. The actual monsoon arrival was June 17-th. In this day near-surface air temperature and relative humidity overcame the critical values and the monsoon season started, that was confirmed by observations of meteorological stations located around the EG-region. We

  10. Measuring the monsoon

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Ramaswamy, V.; Nair, R.R.

    of the monsoons, there are also fluctuations arising from human activities. Most scientists believe that large-scale deforestation and burning of fossil fuels will alter global climatic patterns significantly. For the sake of those people whose lives...

  11. Rainfall interception by maize canopy: Development and application of a process-based model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frasson, Renato Prata de Moraes; Krajewski, Witold F.

    2013-05-01

    The interaction between rain drops and crop canopies changes the microphysical characteristics of precipitation. Understanding the mechanisms driving these changes is a key step towards unveiling the mechanics of soil water recharge, soil erosion under crop canopies, and evaporation of intercepted rainfall. The latter caused by, for example, the reduced aerodynamic resistance to evaporation of splashed droplets. We propose a model that uses drop-size and velocity distributions as well as the three-dimensional geometry of the maize canopy to simulate the movement of raindrops on the surface of the leaves. The model accounts for the interception, redirection, retention, coalescence, and re-interception of drops to predict the location, size, and velocity of throughfall drops beneath the canopy. The throughfall results are presented as two-dimensional matrices, in which each term corresponds to the accumulated volume of drops that dripped in that location, which offers insight into its spatial distribution under the foliage. We examine the modification of the drop-size distribution by the maize canopy by recalculating the drop velocity based on their size and detachment height. They built the three-dimensional digital canopy that is employed in the simulation by creating modified copies of one photogrammetry-generated digital model of a plant located inside their experimental site. The canopy model accounts for the projected overlap of the single plant leaves. We evaluate the results against measurements obtained during 10 storms that occurred between 14 July 2009 and 28 August 2009 in Shueyville, Iowa. The comparison between observations and simulations corroborates the drop detachment threshold of 3.75 mm and indicates that splashing, as opposed to considering solely the rolling or bouncing of droplets that lack the kinetic energy to attach to the foliage, is the likely source of throughfall drops with diameters smaller than 1 mm. The predicted throughfall spatial

  12. Non-linear intensification of Sahel rainfall as a possible dynamic response to future warming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Schewe

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Projections of the response of Sahel rainfall to future global warming diverge significantly. Meanwhile, paleoclimatic records suggest that Sahel rainfall is capable of abrupt transitions in response to gradual forcing. Here we present climate modeling evidence for the possibility of an abrupt intensification of Sahel rainfall under future climate change. Analyzing 30 coupled global climate model simulations, we identify seven models where central Sahel rainfall increases by 40 to 300 % over the 21st century, owing to a northward expansion of the West African monsoon domain. Rainfall in these models is non-linearly related to sea surface temperature (SST in the tropical Atlantic and Mediterranean moisture source regions, intensifying abruptly beyond a certain SST warming level. We argue that this behavior is consistent with a self-amplifying dynamic–thermodynamical feedback, implying that the gradual increase in oceanic moisture availability under warming could trigger a sudden intensification of monsoon rainfall far inland of today's core monsoon region.

  13. Non-linear intensification of Sahel rainfall as a possible dynamic response to future warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schewe, Jacob; Levermann, Anders

    2017-07-01

    Projections of the response of Sahel rainfall to future global warming diverge significantly. Meanwhile, paleoclimatic records suggest that Sahel rainfall is capable of abrupt transitions in response to gradual forcing. Here we present climate modeling evidence for the possibility of an abrupt intensification of Sahel rainfall under future climate change. Analyzing 30 coupled global climate model simulations, we identify seven models where central Sahel rainfall increases by 40 to 300 % over the 21st century, owing to a northward expansion of the West African monsoon domain. Rainfall in these models is non-linearly related to sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Atlantic and Mediterranean moisture source regions, intensifying abruptly beyond a certain SST warming level. We argue that this behavior is consistent with a self-amplifying dynamic-thermodynamical feedback, implying that the gradual increase in oceanic moisture availability under warming could trigger a sudden intensification of monsoon rainfall far inland of today's core monsoon region.

  14. Positive response of Indian summer rainfall to Middle East dust

    KAUST Repository

    Jin, Qinjian

    2014-06-02

    Using observational and reanalyses data, we investigated the impact of dust aerosols over the Middle East and the Arabian Sea (AS) on the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall. Satellite and aerosol reanalysis data show extremely heavy aerosol loading, mainly mineral dust, over the Middle East and AS during the ISM season. Multivariate empirical orthogonal function analyses suggest an aerosol-monsoon connection. This connection may be attributed to dust-induced atmospheric heating centered over the Iranian Plateau (IP), which enhances the meridional thermal contrast and strengthens the ISM circulation and rainfall. The enhanced circulation further transports more dust to the AS and IP, heating the atmosphere (positive feedback). The aerosols over the AS and the Arabian Peninsula have a significant correlation with rainfall over central and eastern India about 2 weeks later. This finding highlights the nonlocal radiative effect of dust on the ISM circulation and rainfall and may improve ISM rainfall forecasts. © 2014. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.

  15. Asian Monsoon Failure and Megadrought During the Last Millennium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cook, Edward R.; Anchukaitis, Kevin J.; Buckley, Brendan M.; D'Arrigo, Rosanne D.; Jacoby, Gordon C.; Wright, William E.

    2010-04-01

    The Asian monsoon system affects more than half of humanity worldwide, yet the dynamical processes that govern its complex spatiotemporal variability are not sufficiently understood to model and predict its behavior, due in part to inadequate long-term climate observations. Here we present the Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas (MADA), a seasonally resolved gridded spatial reconstruction of Asian monsoon drought and pluvials over the past millennium, derived from a network of tree-ring chronologies. MADA provides the spatiotemporal details of known historic monsoon failures and reveals the occurrence, severity, and fingerprint of previously unknown monsoon megadroughts and their close linkages to large-scale patterns of tropical Indo-Pacific sea surface temperatures. MADA thus provides a long-term context for recent monsoon variability that is critically needed for climate modeling, prediction, and attribution.

  16. Sensitivity of the Indian Monsoon to Human Activities

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    B. KNOPF; K. ZICKFELD; M. FLECHSIG; V. PETOUKHOV

    2008-01-01

    In this paper the authors perform an extensive sensitivity analysis of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall to changes in parameters and boundary conditions which are influenced by human activities. For this study, the authors use a box model of the Indian monsoon which reproduces key features of the observed monsoon dynamics such as the annual course of precipitation and the transitions between winter and summer regimes. Because of its transparency and computational efficiency, this model is highly suitable for exploring the effects of anthropogenic perturbations such as emissions of greenhouse gases and sulfur dioxide, and land cover changes, on the Indian monsoon. Results of a systematic sensitivity analysis indicate that changes in those parameters which are related to emissions of greenhouse gases lead to an increase in Indian summer rainfall. In contrast, all parameters related to higher atmospheric aerosol concentrations lead to a decrease in Indian rainfall. Similarly, changes in parameters which can be related to forest conversion or desertification, act to decrease the summer precipitation. The results indicate that the sign of precipitation changes over India will be dependent on the direction and relative magnitude of different human perturbations.

  17. Comparison of ensemble post-processing approaches, based on empirical and dynamical error modelisation of rainfall-runoff model forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chardon, J.; Mathevet, T.; Le Lay, M.; Gailhard, J.

    2012-04-01

    In the context of a national energy company (EDF : Electricité de France), hydro-meteorological forecasts are necessary to ensure safety and security of installations, meet environmental standards and improve water ressources management and decision making. Hydrological ensemble forecasts allow a better representation of meteorological and hydrological forecasts uncertainties and improve human expertise of hydrological forecasts, which is essential to synthesize available informations, coming from different meteorological and hydrological models and human experience. An operational hydrological ensemble forecasting chain has been developed at EDF since 2008 and is being used since 2010 on more than 30 watersheds in France. This ensemble forecasting chain is characterized ensemble pre-processing (rainfall and temperature) and post-processing (streamflow), where a large human expertise is solicited. The aim of this paper is to compare 2 hydrological ensemble post-processing methods developed at EDF in order improve ensemble forecasts reliability (similar to Monatanari &Brath, 2004; Schaefli et al., 2007). The aim of the post-processing methods is to dress hydrological ensemble forecasts with hydrological model uncertainties, based on perfect forecasts. The first method (called empirical approach) is based on a statistical modelisation of empirical error of perfect forecasts, by streamflow sub-samples of quantile class and lead-time. The second method (called dynamical approach) is based on streamflow sub-samples of quantile class and streamflow variation, and lead-time. On a set of 20 watersheds used for operational forecasts, results show that both approaches are necessary to ensure a good post-processing of hydrological ensemble, allowing a good improvement of reliability, skill and sharpness of ensemble forecasts. The comparison of the empirical and dynamical approaches shows the limits of the empirical approach which is not able to take into account hydrological

  18. Catchment process affecting drinking water quality, including the significance of rainfall events, using factor analysis and event mean concentrations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cinque, Kathy; Jayasuriya, Niranjali

    2010-12-01

    To ensure the protection of drinking water an understanding of the catchment processes which can affect water quality is important as it enables targeted catchment management actions to be implemented. In this study factor analysis (FA) and comparing event mean concentrations (EMCs) with baseline values were techniques used to asses the relationships between water quality parameters and linking those parameters to processes within an agricultural drinking water catchment. FA found that 55% of the variance in the water quality data could be explained by the first factor, which was dominated by parameters usually associated with erosion. Inclusion of pathogenic indicators in an additional FA showed that Enterococcus and Clostridium perfringens (C. perfringens) were also related to the erosion factor. Analysis of the EMCs found that most parameters were significantly higher during periods of rainfall runoff. This study shows that the most dominant processes in an agricultural catchment are surface runoff and erosion. It also shows that it is these processes which mobilise pathogenic indicators and are therefore most likely to influence the transport of pathogens. Catchment management efforts need to focus on reducing the effect of these processes on water quality.

  19. Determination of summer monsoon onset and its related large-scale circulation characteristics over Pakistan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Latif, M.; Syed, F. S.

    2016-08-01

    The onset of summer monsoon over the Core Monsoon Region of Pakistan (CMRP) has been investigated in this study using observational daily rainfall and Precipitable Water (PW) data sets. An objective criterion is proposed to define monsoon onset dates by employing Precipitation Index and Normalized Precipitable Water Index techniques. The climatological mean summer monsoon onset dates over CMRP based on daily rainfall data sets are observed to be 1 July and 30 June in the station and gridded data sets, respectively. Whereas the daily PW-based climatological mean onset date is 30 June. The year-wise onset dates determined through station and gridded rainfall data sets are very similar but these dates differ in case of PW-based onsets. The evolution of large-scale circulation anomalies and thermodynamic structure leading monsoon onset over Pakistan shows that a strong positive temperature and geopotential height anomalies appear over the northwestern part of the core region in the upper atmosphere. This warm geopotential height anomaly gets strengthen as the monsoon onset approaches. The temperature anomalies are barotropic whereas the geopotential height anomalies are baroclinic with the presence of low level anticyclone over the Tibetan Plateau. A moisture convergence zone along the foothill of Himalayas and low level moisture convergence zone over the north Arabian Sea set the stage for the moisture carrying monsoon winds to blow inland towards CMRP. The moisture is mainly supplied from the Arabian Sea, as the low pressure system approaches CMRP from the Bay of Bengal.

  20. Sea surface height anomaly and upper ocean temperature over the Indian Ocean during contrasting monsoons

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gera, Anitha; Mitra, A. K.; Mahapatra, D. K.; Momin, I. M.; Rajagopal, E. N.; Basu, Swati

    2016-09-01

    Recent research emphasizes the importance of the oceanic feedback to monsoon rainfall over the Asian landmass. In this study, we investigate the differences in the sea surface height anomaly (SSHA) and upper ocean temperature over the tropical Indian Ocean during multiple strong and weak monsoons. Analysis of satellite derived SSHA, sea surface temperature (SST) and ocean reanalysis data reveals that patterns of SSHA, SST, ocean temperature, upper ocean heat content (UOHC) and propagations of Kelvin and Rossby waves differ during strong and weak monsoon years. During strong monsoons positive SSH, SST and UOHC anomalies develop over large parts of north Indian Ocean whereas during weak monsoons much of the north Indian Ocean is covered with negative anomalies. These patterns can be used as a standard tool for evaluating the performance of coupled and ocean models in simulating & forecasting strong and weak monsoons. The rainfall over central India is found to be significantly correlated with SSHA over the regions (Arabian Sea and West central Indian Ocean and Bay of Bengal) where SSHA is positively large during strong monsoons. The SST-SSHA correlation is also very strong over the same area. The study reveals that much convection takes place over these regions during strong monsoons. In contrast during weak monsoons, convection takes place over eastern equatorial region. These changes in SST are largely influenced by oceanic Kelvin and Rossby waves. The Rossby waves initiated in spring at the eastern boundary propagate sub-surface heat content in the ocean influencing SST in summer. The SST anomalies modulate the Hadley circulation and the moisture transport thereby contributing to rainfall over central India. Therefore oceanic Kelvin and Rossby waves influence the rainfall over central India.

  1. Climatology of monsoon precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau from 13-year TRMM observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aijuan, Bai; Guoping, Li

    2016-10-01

    Based on the 13-year data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite during 2001-2013, the influencing geographical location of the Tibetan Plateau (Plateau) monsoon is determined. It is found that the domain of the Plateau monsoon is bounded by the latitude between 27° N and 37° N and the longitude between 60° E and 103° E. According to the annual relative precipitation, the Plateau monsoon can be divided into three sections: the Plateau winter monsoon (PWM) over Iran and Afghanistan, the Plateau summer monsoon (PSM) over the central Plateau, and the transiting zone of the Plateau monsoon (TPM) over the south, west, and east edges of the Plateau. In PWM and PSM, the monsoon climatology has a shorter rainy season with the mean annual rainfall of less than 800 mm. In TPM, it has a longer rainy season with the mean annual rainfall of more than 1800 mm. PWM experiences a single-peak monthly rainfall with the peak during January to March; PSM usually undergoes a multi-peak pattern with peaks in the warm season; TPM presents a double-peak pattern, with a strong peak in late spring to early summer and a secondary peak in autumn. The Plateau monsoon also characterizes an asymmetrical seasonal advance of the rain belt. In the east of the Plateau, the rain belt migrates in a south-north orientation under the impact of the tropical and subtropical systems' oscillation. In the west of the Plateau, the rain belt advances in an east-west direction, which is mainly controlled by the regional Plateau monsoon.

  2. Precipitation variability over the South Asian monsoon heat low and associated teleconnections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saeed, Sajjad; Müller, Wolfgang A.; Hagemann, Stefan; Jacob, Daniela; Mujumdar, M.; Krishnan, R.

    2011-04-01

    The present study examines the precipitation variability over the South Asian monsoon heat low region and associated teleconnections using high resolution (T106L31) climate simulations performed with the ECHAM5 model. It is found that an intensification of the heat low in response to enhanced precipitation/convection over northwestern India-Pakistan (NWIP) can induce large-scale circulation anomalies that resemble the northern summer circumglobal teleconnection (CGT) wave-like pattern extending well into the Asian monsoon region. Accordingly the wave-like response to rainfall increase over the heat low region is associated with anomalous ascent over northern China and descent over the South China Sea. Additionally, small but statistically significant lead-lag correlations between the heat low and precipitation over northern China further suggest that the detected signal pertains to the true features of the process. On the other hand, suppressed convection and rainfall over the heat low region do not reveal any significant large-scale circulation anomalies.

  3. Effect of the summer monsoon on aerosols at two measurement stations in Northern India – Part 1: PM and BC concentrations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A.-P. Hyvärinen

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Particulate matter (PM and equivalent black carbon (BCe concentrations were measured at two locations in northern India during 2006–2010. The first measurement station was a background site in Mukteshwar, about 350 km northeast of New Delhi, in the foothills of the Indian Himalayas. The second measurement site was located in Gual Pahari, about 25 km south of New Delhi. Here we focused on resolving the effects of the Indian summer monsoon on the particulate matter and equivalent black carbon concentrations at two stations. The average monsoon time concentrations were decreased by 55–70 % compared to the pre-monsoon average concentrations at both stations, decreasing as a function of the total local rainfall during the monsoon season. In Mukteshwar during the monsoon, the 24 h PM2.5 concentrations were nearly always below the Indian National Air Quality Standard of 60 μg m−3. In Gual Pahari, 13 % of days exceeded this level during the monsoon season. However, the 24 h guideline of 25 μg m−3 given by the World Health Organization was more difficult to meet. In addition to loss processes, aerosol concentrations during the early monsoon were found to be affected by primary emissions, most likely from dust events from the Thar Desert. This resulted in elevated fractions of the coarse mode, PM2.5–10 at both stations. In Mukteshwar, additional dust contribution came from east of the station, from the Himalayan region. We also determined the characteristic transition times between the pre-monsoon, monsoon and post-monsoon. The onset and withdrawal transitions occurred faster in Mukteshwar than in Gual Pahari, both being typically less than 10 days. Transition periods in Gual Pahari took between 17 and 31 days. The shorter transition times in Mukteshwar were probably related to the more intense rains due to the mountain location, and the fact that the station was most of the time in the free

  4. Variations of characteristics of consecutive rainfall days over northern Thailand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klongvessa, P.; Lu, M.; Chotpantarat, S.

    2017-07-01

    The Chao Phraya basin, Thailand, is frequently inundated by flooding during the southwest monsoon period. Most floods coincide with consecutive rainfall days. This study investigated consecutive rainfall days during the southwest monsoon period at 11 stations over northern Thailand, the upstream area of this basin. The Markov chain probability model was used to study the consecutiveness of days with at least 0.1, 10.1, and 35.1 mm of rainfall. The consecutive length of rainfall days from the model showed good agreement with the observed value. A chi-square test of independence was applied to assess the significance of the consecutiveness, and it was found that days with at least 10.1 mm of rainfall tend to be consecutive over the entire area. Moreover, days with at least 35.1 mm of rainfall were found to be consecutive over the joint area where the mountainous region meets the plain area. However, the consecutiveness of days with less than 10.1 mm of rainfall was not obvious. The rainfall amount on days with at least 10.1 mm of rainfall was also calculated and it showed lower values over the mountainous region than over the plain. Hence, this study established the characteristics of consecutive rainfall days over the plain, mountainous region, and joint area.

  5. Effects of sea surface temperature, cloud radiative and microphysical processes, and diurnal variations on rainfall in equilibrium cloud-resolving model simulations

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Jiang Zhe; Li Xiao-Fan; Zhou Yu-Shu; Gao Shou-Ting

    2012-01-01

    The effects of sea surface temperature(SST),cloud radiative and microphysical processes,and diurnal variations on rainfall statistics are documented with grid data from the two-dimensional equilibrium cloud-resolving model simulations.For a rain rate of higher than 3 mm.h-1,water vapor convergence prevails.The rainfall amount decreases with the decrease of SST from 29℃ to 27 ℃,the inclusion of diurnal variation of SST,or the exclusion of microphysical effects of ice clouds and radiative effects of water clouds,which are primarily associated with the decreases in water vapor convergence.However,the amount of rainfall increases with the increase of SST from 29 ℃ to 31 ℃,the exclusion of diurnal variation of solar zenith angle,and the exclusion of the radiative effects of ice clouds,which are primarily related to increases in water vapor convergence.For a rain rate of less than 3 mm·h-1,water vapor divergence prevails.Unlike rainfall statistics for rain rates of higher than 3 mm.h-1,the decrease of SST from 29 ℃ to 27 ℃ and the exclusion of radiative effects of water clouds in the presence of radiative effects of ice clouds increase the rainfall amount,which corresponds to the suppression in water vapor divergence.The exclusion of microphysical effects of ice clouds decreases the amount of rainfall,which corresponds to the enhancement in water vapor divergence.The amount of rainfall is less sensitive to the increase of SST from 29℃ to 31℃ and to the radiative effects of water clouds in the absence of the radiative effects of ice clouds.

  6. Stable isotopic signature of Australian monsoon controlled by regional convection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zwart, C.; Munksgaard, N. C.; Kurita, N.; Bird, M. I.

    2016-11-01

    The aim of this study was to identify the main meteorological drivers of rainfall isotopic variation in north Australia in order to improve the interpretation of isotopic proxy records in this region. An intense monitoring program was conducted during two monsoonal events that showed significant and systematic isotopic change over time. The results showed a close link between isotopic variation in precipitation and variability in monsoon conditions, associated with the presence of large convective envelopes propagating through the study site. The largest negative amplitudes in the isotopic signal were observed when eastward and westward moving precipitation systems within the convective envelope merged over the measurement site. This suggests that the amplitude of the isotopic signal is related to the size and activity of the convective envelope. The strong correlation between rainfall isotopic variation, regional outgoing longwave radiation and regional rainfall amount supports this conclusion. This is further strengthened by the strong relationship between isotopic variation and the integrated rainfall history of air masses prior to arriving at the measurement locations. A local amount effect was not significant and these findings support the interpretation of δ18O as proxy for regional climatic conditions rather than local rainfall amount. Meteorological parameters that characterize intra-seasonal variability of monsoon conditions were also found to be strongly linked to inter-seasonal variability of the monthly based δ18O values in the Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation (GNIP) database. This leads to the conclusion that information about the Australian monsoon variability can likely be inferred from the isotopic proxy record in North Australia on short (intra seasonal) and long (inter seasonal or longer) timescales.

  7. Monsoon variability, crop water requirement, and crop planning for kharif rice in Sagar Island, India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mandal, S.; Choudhury, B. U.; Satpati, L. N.

    2015-12-01

    In the Sagar Island of Bay of Bengal, rainfed lowland rice is the major crop, grown solely depending on erratic distribution of southwest monsoon (SM) rainfall. Lack of information on SM rainfall variability and absence of crop scheduling accordingly results in frequent occurrence of intermittent water stress and occasional crop failure. In the present study, we analyzed long period (1982-2010) SM rainfall behavior (onset, withdrawal, rainfall and wetness indices, dry and wet spells), crop water requirement (CWR, by Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) 56), and probability of weekly rainfall occurrence (by two-parameter gamma distribution) to assess the variability and impact on water availability, CWR, and rice productivity. Finally, crop planning was suggested to overcome monsoon uncertainties on water availability and rice productivity. Study revealed that the normal onset and withdrawal weeks for SM rainfall were 22nd ± 1 and 43rd ± 2 meteorological weeks (MW), respectively. However, effective monsoon rainfall started at 24th MW (rainfall 92.7 mm, p > 56.7 % for 50 mm rainfall) and was terminated by the end of 40th MW (rainfall 90.7 mm, p spell frequency during panicle initiation and heading stage was computed as 40 of which 6 dry spells were >7 days in duration and reflected a significant ( p < 0.05) increasing trend (at 0.22 days year-1) over the years (1982-2010). The present study highlights the adaptive capacity of crop planning including abiotic stress-tolerant cultivars to monsoon rainfall variability for sustaining rainfed rice production vis-à-vis food and livelihood security in vulnerable islands of coastal ecosystem.

  8. Effects of Intraseasonal Oscillation on the Anomalous East Asian Summer Monsoon During 1999

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SUN Ying; DING Yihui

    2008-01-01

    The 1999 East Asian summer monsoon was very unusual for its weak northward advance and remarkably anomalous climate conditions.The monsoonal southwesterly airflow and related rain belt in East Asia were blocked south of the Yangtze River Valley.The monsoonal airflow and major moisture transport conduct shifted eastward and turned northward to Japan from the tropical western Pacific rather than to East China from the South China Sea(SCS)as in normal years.Severe and prolonged drought occurred over extensive areas of North China and heavy precipitation in South China and Japan.The investigation on the possible intrinsic mechanisms related to such an anomalous monsoon year has shown that the unique behavior of intraseasonal oscillation may play an essential role during this process.During this year,the northward propagation of 30-60-day anomalous low-level cyclone/anticyclone collapsed in the region around 20℃N and did not extend beyond the latitudes of the Yangtze River basin due to the barrier of strong cold air intrusion from the mid-latitudes.The southwesterly moisture flux on the northwestern flank of the anticyclonic moisture transport system in the western North Pacific,which was regulated by the northward shift of 30-60-day cyclonic/anticyclonic moisture transport.also did not reach the region north of 30℃N as well.Under this circumstance,the weak northward advance of the monsoon westerlies and associated northward moisture transport could not arrive in North China and led to the severe droughts there in 1999.The SCS and South China were mostly affected by the alrflow in the southern and northern flanks of the same 30-60-day cyclones or anticyclones.respectively,and thus controlled by the nearly reverse zonal wind and moisture convergent/divergent conditions.The rainfall in the SCS and South China showed out-of-phase oscillation through the transient local Hadley circulation.with the rainfall maximum occurring in the SCS (South China)when the 30-60-day

  9. The INCOMPASS project field and modelling campaign: Interaction of Convective Organization and Monsoon Precipitation, Atmosphere, Surface and Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, Andrew; Bhat, Ganapati; Evans, Jonathan; Madan, Ranju; Marsham, John; Martin, Gill; Mitra, Ashis; Mrudula, Gm; Parker, Douglas; Pattnaik, Sandeep; Rajagopal, En; Taylor, Christopher; Tripathi, Sachchida

    2017-04-01

    The INCOMPASS project uses data from a field and aircraft measurement campaign during the 2016 monsoon onset to better understand and predict monsoon rainfall. The monsoon supplies the majority of water in South Asia, however modelling and forecasting the monsoon from days to the season ahead is limited by large model errors that develop quickly. Likely problems lie in physical parametrizations such as convection, the boundary layer and land surface. At the same time, lack of detailed observations prevents more thorough understanding of monsoon circulation and its interaction with the land surface; a process governed by boundary layer and convective cloud dynamics. From May to July 2016, INCOMPASS used a modified BAe-146 jet aircraft operated by the UK Facility for Airborne Atmospheric Measurements (FAAM), for the first project of this scale in India. The India and UK team flew around 100 hours of science sorties from bases in northern and southern India. Flights from Lucknow in the northern plains took measurements to the west and southeast to allow sampling of the complete contrast from dry desert air to the humid environment over the north Bay of Bengal. These routes were repeated in the pre-monsoon and monsoon phases, measuring contrasting surface and boundary layer structures. In addition, flights from the southern base in Bengaluru measured contrasts from the Arabian Sea, across the intense rains of the Western Ghats mountains, over the rain shadow in southeast India and over the southern Bay of Bengal. Flight planning was performed with the aid of forecasts from a new UK Met Office 4km limited area model. INCOMPASS also installed a network of surface flux towers, as well as operating a cloud-base ceilometer and performing intensive radiosonde launches from a supersite in Kanpur. Here we will outline preliminary results from the field campaign including new observations of the surface, boundary layer structure and atmospheric profiles from aircraft data. We

  10. Trends in rainfall and rainfall-related extremes in the east coast of peninsular Malaysia

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Olaniya Olusegun Mayowa; Sahar Hadi Pour; Shamsuddin Shahid; Morteza Mohsenipour; Sobri Bin Harun; Arien Heryansyah; Tarmizi Ismail

    2015-12-01

    The coastlines have been identified as the most vulnerable regions with respect to hydrological hazards as a result of climate change and variability. The east of peninsular Malaysia is not an exception for this, considering the evidence of heavy rainfall resulting in floods as an annual phenomenon and also water scarcity due to long dry spells in the region. This study examines recent trends in rainfall and rainfallrelated extremes such as, maximum daily rainfall, number of rainy days, average rainfall intensity, heavy rainfall days, extreme rainfall days, and precipitation concentration index in the east coast of peninsular Malaysia. Recent 40 years (1971–2010) rainfall records from 54 stations along the east coast of peninsular Malaysia have been analyzed using the non-parametric Mann–Kendall test and the Sen's slope method. The Monte Carlo simulation technique has been used to determine the field significance of the regional trends. The results showed that there was a substantial increase in the annual rainfall as well as the rainfall during the monsoon period. Also, there was an increase in the number of heavy rainfall days during the past four decades.

  11. Rainfall Analyses of Coonoor Hill Station of Nilgiris District for Landslide Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramani Sujatha, Evangelin; Suribabu, C. R.

    2017-07-01

    The most common triggering factor of landslides in a hill terrain is rainfall. Assessment of the extreme and antecedent rainfall events and its quantum is imperative to evaluate the temporal occurrence of landslides. It also plays a vital role in the choice of the preventive measures to be adopted. This study focuses on an in-depth rainfall analysis of Coonoor hill station. The analysis includes the study of monthly, seasonal and annual rainfall patterns for a period of 80 years, between 1935 and 2013. Further, one day maximum, 5 day and more antecedent rainfall and its amount is calculated for the years between 2007-2012, 2014 and 2015.The result of the study indicates an increase in the normal rainfall based on the mean of 30 years of data (for the recent decades) and erratic pattern of rainfall during pre-monsoon, post-monsoon south-west monsoon periods. A detailed analysis of daily rainfall for the selected period indicates that extreme highest daily rainfall of more than 300 mm above occurred after consecutive rainfall trigged massive landslides comparing highest rainfall amount around 100 to 180 mm rainfall events.

  12. Hydrological changes of DOM composition and biodegradability of rivers in temperate monsoon climates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shin, Yera; Lee, Eun-Ju; Jeon, Young-Joon; Hur, Jin; Oh, Neung-Hwan

    2016-09-01

    The spatial and hydrological dynamics of dissolved organic matter (DOM) composition and biodegradability were investigated for the five largest rivers in the Republic of Korea (South Korea) during the years 2012-2013 using incubation experiments and spectroscopic measurements, which included parallel factor analysis (PARAFAC). The lower reaches of the five rivers were selected as windows showing the integrated effects of basin biogeochemistry of different land use under Asian monsoon climates, providing an insight on consistency of DOM dynamics across multiple sites which could be difficult to obtain from a study on an individual river. The mean dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations of the five rivers were relatively low, ranging from 1.4 to 3.4 mg L-1, due to the high slope and low percentage of wetland cover in the basin. Terrestrial humic- and fulvic-like components were dominant in all the rivers except for one, where protein-like compounds were up to ∼80%. However, terrestrial components became dominant in all five of the rivers after high precipitation during the summer monsoon season, indicating the strong role of hydrology on riverine DOM compositions for the basins under Asian monsoon climates. Considering that 64% of South Korea is forested, our results suggest that the forests could be a large source of riverine DOM, elevating the DOM loads during monsoon rainfall. Although more DOM was degraded when DOM input increased, regardless of its sources, the percent biodegradability was reduced with increased proportions of terrestrially derived aromatic compounds. The shift in DOM quality towards higher percentages of aromatic terrestrial compounds may alter the balance of the carbon cycle of coastal ecosystems by changing microbial metabolic processes if climate extremes such as heavy storms and typhoons become more frequent due to climate change.

  13. The influence of soil type, vegetation cover and soil moisture on spin up behaviour of a land surface model in a monsoonal region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhattacharya, Anwesha; Mandal, Manabottam

    2015-04-01

    Model spin-up is the process through which the model is adequately equilibrated to ensure balance between the mass fields and velocity fields. In this study, an offline one dimensional Noah land surface model is integrated recursively for three years to assess its spin-up behavior at different sites over the Indian Monsoon domain. Several numerical experiments are performed to investigate the impact of soil category, vegetation cover, initial soil moisture and subsequent dry or wet condition on model spin-up. These include simulations with the dominant soil and vegetation covers of this region, different initial soil moisture content (observed soil moisture; dry soil; moderately wet soil; saturated soil), simulations initialized at different rain conditions (no rain; infrequent rain; continuous rain) and different seasons (Winter, Spring, Summer/Pre-Monsoon, Monsoon and Autumn). It is seen that the spin-up behavior of the model depends on the soil type and vegetation cover with soil characteristics having the larger influence. Over India, the model has the longest spin-up in the case of simulations with loamy soil covered with mixed-shrub. It is noted that the model has a significantly longer spin-up when initialized with very low initial soil moisture content than with higher soil moisture content. It is also seen that in general, simulations initialized just before a continuous rainfall event have the least spin-up time. This observation is reinforced by the results from the simulations initialized in different seasons. It is seen that for monsoonal region, the model spin-up time is least for simulations initialized just before the Monsoon. Model initialized during the Monsoon rain episodes has a longer spin-up than that initialized in any other season. Furthermore, it is seen that the model has a shorter spin-up if it reaches the equilibrium state predominantly via drying process and could be as low as two months under quasi-equilibrium condition depending on

  14. Comparison of Two Stochastic Daily Rainfall Models and their Ability to Preserve Multi-year Rainfall Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamal Chowdhury, AFM; Lockart, Natalie; Willgoose, Garry; Kuczera, George; Kiem, Anthony; Parana Manage, Nadeeka

    2016-04-01

    Stochastic simulation of rainfall is often required in the simulation of streamflow and reservoir levels for water security assessment. As reservoir water levels generally vary on monthly to multi-year timescales, it is important that these rainfall series accurately simulate the multi-year variability. However, the underestimation of multi-year variability is a well-known issue in daily rainfall simulation. Focusing on this issue, we developed a hierarchical Markov Chain (MC) model in a traditional two-part MC-Gamma Distribution modelling structure, but with a new parameterization technique. We used two parameters of first-order MC process (transition probabilities of wet-to-wet and dry-to-dry days) to simulate the wet and dry days, and two parameters of Gamma distribution (mean and standard deviation of wet day rainfall) to simulate wet day rainfall depths. We found that use of deterministic Gamma parameter values results in underestimation of multi-year variability of rainfall depths. Therefore, we calculated the Gamma parameters for each month of each year from the observed data. Then, for each month, we fitted a multi-variate normal distribution to the calculated Gamma parameter values. In the model, we stochastically sampled these two Gamma parameters from the multi-variate normal distribution for each month of each year and used them to generate rainfall depth in wet days using the Gamma distribution. In another study, Mehrotra and Sharma (2007) proposed a semi-parametric Markov model. They also used a first-order MC process for rainfall occurrence simulation. But, the MC parameters were modified by using an additional factor to incorporate the multi-year variability. Generally, the additional factor is analytically derived from the rainfall over a pre-specified past periods (e.g. last 30, 180, or 360 days). They used a non-parametric kernel density process to simulate the wet day rainfall depths. In this study, we have compared the performance of our

  15. The once and future pulse of Indian monsoonal climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kumar, K.K.; Patwardhan, S.K.; Goswami, B.N. [Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune (India); Kamala, K. [Universiti Pierre et Marie Curie, LOCEAN-IPSL, Paris (France); Rajagopalan, Balaji [University of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States); Hoerling, Martin P.; Eischeid, Jon K. [NOAA/ESRL/PSD, Boulder, CO (United States); Srinivasan, G. [RIMES, Pathunthani (Thailand); Nemani, Ramakrishna [NASA-Ames Research Center, Moffett Field, CA (United States)

    2011-06-15

    We present a comprehensive assessment of the present and expected future pulse of the Indian monsoon climate based on observational and global climate model projections. The analysis supports the view that seasonal Indian monsoon rains in the latter half of the 21th century may not be materially different in abundance to that experienced today although their intensity and duration of wet and dry spells may change appreciably. Such an assessment comes with considerable uncertainty. With regard to temperature, however, we find that the Indian temperatures during the late 21st Century will very likely exceed the highest values experienced in the 130-year instrumental record of Indian data. This assessment comes with higher confidence than for rainfall because of the large spatial scale driving the thermal response of climate to greenhouse gas forcing. We also find that monsoon climate changes, especially temperature, could heighten human and crop mortality posing a socio-economic threat to the Indian subcontinent. (orig.)

  16. Towards Understanding Planetary Boundary Layer Regimes in Relation to Indian Summer Monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sathyanadh, A.

    2015-12-01

    Atmospheric boundary layer processes play crucial role in modulating weather and climate of the earth. Information on the planetary boundary layer characteristics are important in various aspects. Analyses presented in the study are mainly carried out using Modern Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) reanalysis data products. Hourly values of PBL height, soil moisture, fluxes, cloud cover, and atmospheric stability in the region 5-38° N, 60 - 100o E are used. The MERRA PBL heights are validated with PBL heights calculated using GPS RO atmospheric profiles during 2007-09 and radiosonde observations in order to assess the suitability of MERRA data for the PBL analysis. The radiosonde data used are from two sources: (i) routine radiosonde observations conducted by India Meteorological Department over the Indian subcontinent and (ii) additional radiosonde observations conducted by the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology as a part of the Cloud Aerosol Interaction and Precipitation Enhancement Experiment during theSW monsoon, 2009. Spatio-temporal variations of PBL height in relation to different phases of monsoon and intra-seasonal variations are investigated in detail. Seasonal variations show a deeper premonsoon boundary layer and a shallower monsoon boundary layer, with large spatial variations. The PBLH variations over inland locations are found to be in good agreement with onset and progress of monsoon rainfall and associated soil moisture variations. The active and break spell monsoon PBL heights analyzed using 20-year PBL data showed deeper PBLHs during break periods compared to active period. Based on the maximum PBLH and growth characteristics, different regimes are identified which are mainly controlled by soil moisture/ evaporative fraction, but further influenced by stability of the surface, cloudiness, wind shear, etc. resulting in complex PBL regimes in relation to monsoon. The maximum PBLH, growth rate, time of occurrence

  17. A diagnostic study of monsoon energetics for two contrasting years

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. S. V. S. Ramakrishna

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available In the present study we made an attempt to explain the behavior of the southwest monsoon for two contrasting years, from the view point of energetics. As a test case we selected 2002 and 2003, which were weak and strong monsoon years, respectively, based on rainfall. The energy terms Kψ, Kχ and APE and the conversion terms f∇ψ. ∇χ, −ω'T' are calculated at 850 hPa level and also vertically integrated from 1000 hPa to 100 hPa. The results indicate that, the year of high energy (both KΨ, Kχ i.e. 2002, does not give a good amount of rainfall compared to the good year i.e. 2003. The break period during the year 2002 has been clearly explained using the block diagrams. Periods of highest rainfall coincide with the positive conversions of f∇ψ. ∇χ and −ω'T'. Vertically integrated moisture fluxes during the break period of 2002, 2003 are also analyzed. The main reservoirs (sources and sinks for the monsoon energy are also identified using block diagrams. Negative correlation between daily rainfall and energy terms in the year 2002 indicates its unusual behavior both in terms of energetics as well as precipitation. Positive correlations in the year 2003 represent strong monsoonal behavior. We calculated the climatology of the total kinetic energy at 850 hPa, vertically integrated (1000–100 hPa for 30 years (1980–2009 and rainfall for 103 years (1901–2003 which clearly indicates that the monsoon is indeed a season of high energy for the South Asian region.

    Also the east- west direct thermal circulations are strongly related to the good and bad monsoon years.

  18. On the link between extreme floods and excess monsoon epochs in South Asia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kale, Vishwas [University of Pune, Department of Geography, Pune (India)

    2012-09-15

    This paper provides a synoptic view of extreme monsoon floods on all the nine large rivers of South Asia and their association with the excess (above-normal) monsoon rainfall periods. Annual maximum flood series for 18 gauging stations spread over four countries (India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Nepal) and long-term monsoon rainfall data were analyzed to ascertain whether the extreme floods were clustered in time and whether they coincided with multi-decade excess monsoon rainfall epochs at the basin level. Simple techniques, such as the Cramer's t-test, regression and Mann-Kendall (MK) tests and Hurst method were used to evaluate the trends and patterns of the flood and rainfall series. MK test reveals absence of any long-term tendency in all the series. However, the Cramer's t test and Hurst-Mandelbrot rescaled range statistic provide evidence that both rainfall and flood time series are persistent. Using the Cramer's t-test the excess monsoon epochs for each basin were identified. The excess monsoon periods for different basins were found to be highly asynchronous with respect to duration as well as the beginning and end. Three main conclusions readily emerge from the analyses. Extreme floods (>90th percentile) in South Asia show a tendency to cluster in time. About three-fourth of the extreme floods have occurred during the excess monsoon periods between {proportional_to}1840 and 2000 AD, implying a noteworthy link between the two. The frequency of large floods was higher during the post-1940 period in general and during three decades (1940s, 1950s and 1980s) in particular. (orig.)

  19. Impact of urbanization on rainfall-runoff processes: case study in the Liangshui River Basin in Beijing, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Zongxue; Zhao, Gang

    2016-05-01

    China is undergoing rapid urbanization during the past decades. For example, the proportion of urban population in Beijing has increased from 57.6 % in 1980 to 86.3 % in 2013. Rapid urbanization has an adverse impact on the urban rainfall-runoff processes, which may result in the increase of urban flood risk. In the present study, the major purpose is to investigate the impact of land use/cover change on hydrological processes. The intensive human activities, such as the increase of impervious area, changes of river network morphology, construction of drainage system and water transfer, were considered in this study. Landsat TM images were adopted to monitor urbanization process based on Urban Land-use Index (ULI). The SWMM model considering different urbanized scenarios and anthropogenic disturbance was developed. The measured streamflow data was used for model calibration and validation. Precipitation with different return periods was taken as model input to analyse the changes of flood characteristics under different urbanized scenarios. The results indicated that SWMM provided a good estimation for storms under different urbanized scenarios. The volume of surface runoff after urbanization was 3.5 times greater than that before urbanization; the coefficient of runoff changed from 0.12 to 0.41, and the ratio of infiltration decreased from 88 to 60 %. After urbanization, the time of overland flow concentration increased while the time of river concentration decreased; the peak time did not show much difference in this study. It was found that the peak flow of 20-year return-period after urbanization is greater than that of 100-year return-period before urbanization. The amplification effect of urbanization on flood is significant, resulting in an increase of the flooding risk. These effects are especially noticeable for extreme precipitation. The results in this study will provide technical support for the planning and management of urban storm water and the

  20. Upper Ocean Mixing Processes and Circulation in the Arabian Sea during Monsoons using Remote Sensing, Hydrographic Observations and HYCOM Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-09-30

    1 DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. Upper Ocean Mixing Processes and Circulation in the...3° degree resolution will be used to study the western boundary currents and circulation pattern in the Arabian Sea National Oceanic and Atmospheric...System 3.0 (HYCOM Version 2.2.19). 3 3.4 SODA Reanalysis The SODA reanalysis is produced from a general ocean circulation model, driven by surface

  1. Connectivity of rainfall and human activity impacts on soil erosion processes in Mediterranean vineyards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodrigo-Comino, Jesús; Terol Esparza, Enric; Damián Ruiz-Sinoga, José; Cerdà, Artemi

    2017-04-01

    Soils are recognized as one of the most important components characterizing a terroir (Vaudour et al., 2015). However, the soils of vineyards are one of the most degraded in comparison to other cultivated context due to traditional tillage management (Prosdocimi et al., 2016). The key factor to understand the connectivity between topsoil redistribution and overland flow is the human activity as the management, who can reduce or increase these geomorphological interchanges (sediment and runoff) and changes the soil properties such it was found in different regions and under different crops (Parras-Alcántara et al., 2016). In order to assess this topsoil redistribution in vineyards, the Stock Unearthing Method (SUM) has been accepted to be a reliable method to assess erosion rates and spatial evolution and interchanging of the topsoil, sediments and water flux directions at long-term time scales in vineyards (Brenot et al., 2008; Paroissien et al., 2010; Rodrigo Comino et al., 2016). The SUM is based on the measurement of the distance from the topsoil to the grafted vine stock, confirmed as a passive indicator of topsoil movements since the initial planting of vine stocks. Therefore, the aims of this work are: i) to quantify the soil erosion rates by means of Stock Unearthing Method; ii) to measure the impact of plantation of new vineyards; iii) to compare sediment transport, water flux directions and topsoil redistributions between different soil types, land management (bare soil, amendments, straw mulch…) and soil tillage practices; iv) to assess sediment budgets and water flux direction conditioned by the micro-topographical variations; and, v) to detect key factors and impact on the surface features within the detected connectivity processes (rills and inter-rills…) using cartography. Acknowledgements The research leading to these results has received funding from the COST Action (Connecting European Connectivity Research): ES1306 and the European Union

  2. A Study of the Teleconnections in the Asian-Pacific Monsoon Region

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    DING Yihui; LIU Yunyun

    2008-01-01

    The interactions among the Asian-Pacific monsoon subsystems have significant impacts on the climatic regimes in the monsoon region and even the whole world. Based on the domestic and foreign related research, an analysis is made of four different teleconnection modes found in the Asian-Pacific monsoon region, which reveal clearly the interactions among the Indian summer monsoon (ISM), the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM), and the western North Pacific summer monsoon (WNPSM). The results show that: (1) In the period of the Asian monsoon onset, the date of ISM onset is two weeks earlier than the beginning of the Meiyu over the Yangtze River Basin, and a teleconnection mode is set up from the southwestern India via the Bay of Bengal (BOB) to the Yangtze River Basin and southern Japan, I.e., the "southern" teleconnection of the Asian summer monsoon. (2) In the Asian monsoon culmination period, the precipitation of the Yangtze River Basin is influenced significantly by the WNPSM through their teleconnection relationship, and is negatively related to the WNPSM rainfall, that is, when the WNPSM is weaker than normal, the precipitation of the Yangtze River Basin is too.re than normal. (3) In contrast to the rainfall over the Yangtze River Basin, the precipitation of northern China (from the 4th pentad of July to the 3rd pentad of August) is positively related to the WNPSM. When the WNPSM is stronger than normal, the position of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) becomes farther northeast than normal, the anomalous northeastward water vapor transport along the southwestern flank of WPSH is converged over northern China, providing adequate moisture for more rainfalls than normal there. (4) The summer rainfall in northern China has also a positive correlation with the ISM. During the peak period of ISM, a teleconnection pattern is formed from Northwest India via the Tibetan Plateau to northern China, I.e., the "northern" teleconnection of the Asian summer monsoon

  3. Coupling between SW monsoon-related surface and deep ocean processes as discerned from continuous particle flux measurements and correlated satellite data

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Rixen, T.; Haake, B.; Ittekkot, V.; Guptha, M.V.S.; Nair, R.R.; Schlussel, P.

    as well as open ocean upwelling at the beginning of the SW monsoon. Both open ocean upwelling and coastal upwelling off Oman cause a cooling of surface waters at our western and central Arabian Sea stations. When SSTs fall below their long-term average...

  4. The influence of dynamic vegetation on the present-day simulation and future projections of the South Asian summer monsoon in the HadGEM2 family

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, G. M.; Levine, R. C.

    2012-11-01

    Various studies have shown the importance of Earth System feedbacks in the climate system and the necessity of including these in models used for making climate change projections. The HadGEM2 family of Met Office Unified Model configurations combines model components which facilitate the representation of many different processes within the climate system, including atmosphere, ocean and sea ice, and Earth System components including the terrestrial and oceanic carbon cycle and tropospheric chemistry. We examine the climatology of the Asian summer monsoon in present-day simulations and in idealised climate change experiments. Members of the HadGEM2 family are used, with a common physical framework (one of which includes tropospheric chemistry and an interactive terrestrial and oceanic carbon cycle), to investigate whether such components affect the way in which the monsoon changes. We focus particularly on the role of interactive vegetation in the simulations from these model configurations. Using an atmosphere-only HadGEM2 configuration, we investigate how the changes in land cover which result from the interaction between the dynamic vegetation and the model systematic rainfall biases affect the Asian summer monsoon, both in the present-day and in future climate projections. We demonstrate that the response of the dynamic vegetation to biases in regional climate, such as lack of rainfall over tropical dust-producing regions, can affect both the present-day simulation and the response to climate change forcing scenarios.

  5. Examining Impact of Global warming on the summer monsoon system using regional Climate Model (PRECIS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patwardhan, S. K.; Kundeti, K.; Krishna Kumar, K.

    2011-12-01

    Every year, southwest monsoon arrives over Indian region with remarkable regularity. It hits the southern state of Kerala first by the end of May or the early June. More than 70% of the annual precipitation is received during the four monsoon months viz. June to September. This monsoon rainfall is vital for the agriculture as well as for the yearly needs of Indian population. The performance of the monsoon depends on the timely onset over southern tip of India and its progress along the entire country. This northward progression of monsoon to cover the entire Indian landmass, many times, is associated with the formation of synoptic scale system in the Bay of Bengal region and their movement along the monsoon trough region. The analysis of the observed cyclonic disturbances show that their frequency has reduced in recent decades. It is, therefore, necessary to assess the effect of global warming on the monsoon climate of India. A state-of-art regional climate modelling system, known as PRECIS (Providing REgional Climates for Impacts Studies) developed by the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, U.K. is applied over the South Asian domain to investigate the impact of global warming on the cyclonic disturbances. The PRECIS simulations at 50 km x 50 km horizontal resolution are made for two time slices, present (1961-1990) and the future (2071-2100), for two socio-economic scenarios A2 and B2. The model skills are evaluated using observed precipitation and surface air temperature. The model has shown reasonably good skill in simulating seasonal monsoon rainfall, whereas cold bias is seen in surface air temperature especially in post-monsoon months. The typical monsoon features like monsoon trough, precipitation maxima over west coast and northeast India are well simulated by the model. The model simulations under the scenarios of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations and sulphate aerosols are analysed to study the likely changes in the quasi

  6. Monsoonal Responses to External Forcings over the Past Millennium: A Model Study (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, J.; Wang, B.

    2009-12-01

    understanding the latitudinal differences of the monsoonal responses to external forcings and internal feedback processes. The strength of the forced response depends on latitude. On centennial-millennial time scales, the variation of the extratropical and subtropical rainfall tends to follow the effective solar radiation forcing closely; the tropical rainfall is less sensitive to the effective solar radiation forcing but responds significantly to the modern anthropogenic CO2 forcing. The spatial patterns and structures of the forced response differ from the internal mode (i.e., interannual variability that arises primarily from the internal feedback processes within the climate system). Further, the behavior of the internal mode is effectively modulated by changes in the mean state on the centennial to millennial time scales. These findings have important ramification in understanding the differences and linkages between the forced and internal modes of variability as well as in promoting communication between scientists studying modern- and paleo-monsoon variations.

  7. Projected changes in South Asian summer monsoon by multi-model global warming experiments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sabade, S. S.; Kulkarni, Ashwini; Kripalani, R. H.

    2011-03-01

    South Asian summer monsoon (June through September) rainfall simulation and its potential future changes are evaluated in a multi-model ensemble of global coupled climate models outputs under World Climate Research Program Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (WCRP CMIP3) dataset. The response of South Asian summer monsoon to a transient increase in future anthropogenic radiative forcing is investigated for two time slices, middle (2031-2050) and end of the twenty-first century (2081-2100), in the non-mitigated Special Report on Emission Scenarios B1, A1B and A2 .There is large inter-model variability in the simulation of spatial characteristics of seasonal monsoon precipitation. Ten out of the 25 models are able to simulate space-time characteristics of the South Asian monsoon precipitation reasonably well. The response of these selected ten models has been examined for projected changes in seasonal monsoon rainfall. The multi-model ensemble of these ten models projects a significant increase in monsoon precipitation with global warming. The substantial increase in precipitation is observed over western equatorial Indian Ocean and southern parts of India. However, the monsoon circulation weakens significantly under all the three climate change experiments. Possible mechanisms for the projected increase in precipitation and for precipitation-wind paradox have been discussed. The surface temperature over Asian landmass increases in pre-monsoon months due to global warming and heat low over northwest India intensifies. The dipole snow configuration over Eurasian continent strengthens in warmer atmosphere, which is conducive for the enhancement in precipitation over Indian landmass. No notable changes have been projected in the El Niño-Monsoon relationship, which is useful for predicting interannual variations of the monsoon.

  8. Dynamical downscaling simulation and future projection of summer rainfall in Taiwan: Contributions from different types of rain events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Wan-Ru; Chang, Ya-Hui; Hsu, Huang-Hsiung; Cheng, Chao-Tzuen; Tu, Chia-Ying

    2016-12-01

    Summer rainfall in Taiwan is composed of four types of rain events: tropical cyclone (TC), frontal convection (FC), diurnal convection (DC), and other southerly convection (SC) that propagates from the nearby ocean. In this study, we accessed the present-day simulation (1979-2003) and future projection (2075-2099, the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario) of rainfall in Taiwan by using the regional Weather Research and Forecasting model driven by the global High Resolution Atmospheric Model. The results indicated that the dynamical downscaling process adds value to the present-day simulation of summer rainfall in Taiwan and the contribution of different types of rain events. It was found that summer rainfall in Taiwan will increase in a warmer future and that this change was mainly due to an increase in SC rainfall (i.e., light rainfall event). The following trends in Taiwan rainfall were also predicted in a warmer future: (1) SC rainy days will increase because the intensified monsoonal flow facilitates the propagation of more SC toward Taiwan, (2) TC rainy days will decrease as the Western North Pacific subtropical high extends southwestward and prevents TC systems from passing over Taiwan, (3) DC rainy days will decrease in response to the increased local thermal stability, and (4) FC rainy days will show no significant changes. Moreover, all types of rainfall are projected to become more intense in the future due to the increased moisture supply in a warmer climate. These findings highlight how the rainfall characteristics in East Asia may change in response to climate change.

  9. Long-term changes in the within-season temporal profile of southwest monsoon over western India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhandari, Satyendra; Srivastava, Rohit; Mehta, Vikram

    2016-09-01

    This paper presents results of a study of long term trends in the characteristics of the within-season temporal profile of southwest monsoon rainfall over western India during the last five decades in relation to global warming induced regional climate change. In contrast to recent climate change analyses and projections, no significant long-term trends have been observed in this study. Slow decadal scale variations observed are analysed in relation to Pacific Decadal Oscillations (PDO). Daily variations in rainfall anomaly show opposite characteristics during negative and positive phases of PDO. The above-normal rainfall (>25%) is found during the starting phase of monsoon in negative PDO. Over the last decade, i.e., during 2000-2007, the seasonal rainfall amount, as well as seasonal span of southwest monsoon over western India is indicative of a gradual increase.

  10. Long-term changes in the within-season temporal profile of southwest monsoon over western India

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Satyendra Bhandari; Rohit Srivastava; Vikram Mehta

    2016-10-01

    This paper presents results of a study of long term trends in the characteristics of the within-season temporal profile of southwest monsoon rainfall over western India during the last five decades in relation to global warming induced regional climate change. In contrast to recent climate change analyses and projections, no significant long-term trends have been observed in this study. Slow decadal scale variations observed are analysed in relation to Pacific Decadal Oscillations (PDO). Daily variations in rainfall anomaly show opposite characteristics during negative and positive phases of PDO. The above-normal rainfall (>25%) is found during the starting phase of monsoon in negative PDO. Over the last decade, i.e., during 2000–2007, the seasonal rainfall amount, as well as seasonal span of southwest monsoon over western India is indicative of a gradual increase.

  11. Towards understanding the unusual Indian monsoon in 2009

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    P A Francis; Sulochana Gadgil

    2010-08-01

    The Indian summer monsoon season of 2009 commenced with a massive deficit in all-India rainfallof 48% of the average rainfall in June. The all-India rainfall in July was close to the normal but that in August was deficit by 27%. In this paper, we first focus on June 2009, elucidating the special features and attempting to identify the factors that could have led to the large deficit in rainfall. In June 2009, the phase of the two important modes, viz., El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the equatorial Indian Ocean Oscillation (EQUINOO) was unfavourable. Also, the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean (EEIO) was warmer than in other years and much warmer than the Bay. In almost all the years, the opposite is true, i.e., the Bay is warmer than EEIO in June. It appears that this SST gradient gave an edge to the tropical convergence zone over the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean, in competition with the organized convection over the Bay. Thus, convection was not sustained for more than three or four days over the Bay and no northward propagations occurred. We suggest that the reversal of the sea surface temperature (SST) gradient between the Bay of Bengal and EEIO, played a critical role in the rainfall deficit over the Bay and hence the Indian region. We also suggest that suppression of convection over EEIO in association with the El Niño led to a positive phase of EQUINOO in July and hence revival of the monsoon despite the El Niño. It appears that the transition to a negative phase of EQUINOO in August and the associated large deficit in monsoon rainfall can also be attributed to the El Niño.

  12. Seasonal prediction of Indian summer monsoon: Sensitivity to persistent SST

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Sukanta Kumar Das; Sanjib Kumar Deb; C M Kishtawal; Pradip Kumar Pal

    2013-10-01

    In the present study, the assessment of the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) developed at National Centre for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) for seasonal forecasting of Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) with different persistent SST is reported. Towards achieving the objective, 30-year model climatology has been generated using observed SST. Upon successful simulation of climatological features of ISM, the model is tested for the simulation of ISM 2011 in forecast mode. Experiments have been conducted in three different time-phases, viz., April, May and June; using different sets of initial conditions (ICs) and the persistent SSTs of the previous months of the time-phases. The spatial as well as temporal distribution of model simulated rainfall suggest a below normal monsoon condition throughout the season in all the experiments. However, the rainfall anomaly shows some positive signature over north-east part of India in the month of June and August whereas the central Indian landmass had positive anomaly during August and September. The monthly accumulated All-India rainfall (AIR) over land for June to September 2011 are predicted to be 101% (17.6 cm), 86% (24.3 cm), 83% (21.0 cm) and 95% (15.5 cm) of normal AIR, respectively. This makes the seasonal accumulated AIR 78.4 cm which is 11% below the normal rainfall of 87.6 cm. The model prediction for the months of June and July is comparable with the observation; however, the simulation would not be able to capture the high rainfall during August and September. The intention behind this work is to assess the shortcomings in the CAM model prediction, which can later be improved for future monsoon forecast experiments.

  13. Active and break spells of the Indian summer monsoon

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    M Rajeevan; Sulochana Gadgil; Jyoti Bhate

    2010-06-01

    In this paper, we suggest criteria for the identification of active and break events of the Indian summer monsoon on the basis of recently derived high resolution daily gridded rainfall dataset over India (1951–2007). Active and break events are defined as periods during the peak monsoon months of July and August, in which the normalized anomaly of the rainfall over a critical area, called the monsoon core zone exceeds 1 or is less than −1.0 respectively, provided the criterion is satisfied for at least three consecutive days. We elucidate the major features of these events. We consider very briefly the relationship of the intraseasonal fluctuations between these events and the interannual variation of the summer monsoon rainfall. We find that breaks tend to have a longer life-span than active spells. While, almost 80% of the active spells lasted 3–4 days, only 40% of the break spells were of such short duration. A small fraction (9%) of active spells and 32% of break spells lasted for a week or longer. While active events occurred almost every year, not a single break occurred in 26% of the years considered. On an average, there are 7 days of active and break events from July through August. There are no significant trends in either the days of active or break events. We have shown that there is a major difference between weak spells and long intense breaks. While weak spells are characterized by weak moist convective regimes, long intense break events have a heat trough type circulation which is similar to the circulation over the Indian subcontinent before the onset of the monsoon. The space-time evolution of the rainfall composite patterns suggests that the revival from breaks occurs primarily from northward propagations of the convective cloud zone. There are important differences between the spatial patterns of the active/break spells and those characteristic of interannual variation, particularly those associated with the link to ENSO. Hence, the

  14. Effects of slope gradient on hydro-erosional processes on an aeolian sand-covered loess slope under simulated rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, F. B.; Yang, M. Y.; Li, B. B.; Li, Z. B.; Shi, W. Y.

    2017-10-01

    The aeolian sand-covered loess slope of the Wind-Water Erosion Crisscross Region of the Loess Plateau in China may play a key role in contributing excessive sediment to the Yellow River. Understanding its hydro-erosional processes is crucial to assessing, controlling and predicting soil and water losses in this region and maintaining the ecological sustainability of the Yellow River. Simulated rainfall (intensity 90 mm h-1) was used to investigate the runoff and soil loss from loess slopes with different slope gradients (18%, 27%, 36%, 47%, and 58%) and overlying sand layer thicknesses (0, 5 and 10 cm). As compared with uncovered loess slopes, an overlying sand layer delayed runoff production, reduced cumulative runoff and increased cumulative soil loss, as well as enhancing variations among slope gradients. Cumulative runoff and soil loss from the sand-covered loess slopes increased with increasing slope gradients and then slightly decreased, with a peak at about 47% gradient; they both were greater from the 10-cm sand-covered loess slope than from the 5-cm except for with 18% slope gradient. In general, differences in cumulative runoff between sand layer thicknesses became smaller, while those in cumulative soil loss became larger, with increasing slope gradient. Runoff and soil loss rates on the sand-covered loess slopes exhibited unimodal distributions during the rainstorms. Maximum values tended to occur at the same rain duration, and increased considerably with increasing slope gradient and sand layer thickness on slopes that were less than 47%. Liquefaction process might occur on the lower loess slopes covered with thinner sand layers but failures similar to shallow landslides might occur when the sand layer was thicker on steeper slopes. The presence of an overlying sand layer changed the relationship between runoff and soil loss rates during intense rainstorms and this change varied with different slope gradients. Our results demonstrated that the effects

  15. Three centuries of Myanmar monsoon climate variability inferred from teak tree rings

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Arrigo, Rosanne; Palmer, Jonathan; Ummenhofer, Caroline C.; Kyaw, Nyi Nyi; Krusic, Paul

    2011-12-01

    Asian monsoon extremes critically impact much of the globe’s population. Key gaps in our understanding of monsoon climate remain due to sparse coverage of paleoclimatic information, despite intensified recent efforts. Here we describe a ring width chronology of teak, one of the first high-resolution proxy records for the nation of Myanmar. Based on 29 samples from 20 living trees and spanning from 1613-2009, this record, from the Maingtha forest reserve north of Mandalay, helps fill a substantial gap in spatial coverage of paleoclimatic records for monsoon Asia. Teak growth is positively correlated with rainfall and Palmer Drought Severity Index variability over Myanmar, during and prior to the May-September monsoon season (e.g., r = 0.38 with Yangon rainfall, 0.001, n 68). Importantly, this record also correlates significantly with larger-scale climate indices, including core Indian rainfall (23°N, 76°E a particularly sensitive index of the monsoon), and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The teak ring width value following the so-called 1997-98 El Niño of the Century suggests that this was one of the most severe droughts in the past ˜300 years in Myanmar. Evidence for past dry conditions inferred for Myanmar is consistent with tree-ring records of decadal megadroughts developed for Thailand and Vietnam. These results confirm the climate signature related to monsoon rainfall in the Myanmar teak record and the considerable potential for future development of climate-sensitive chronologies from Myanmar and the broader region of monsoon Asia.

  16. Aerosol-Water Cycle Interaction: A New Challenge in Monsoon Climate Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, William K. M.

    2006-01-01

    Long recognized as a major environmental hazard, aerosol is now known to have strong impacts on both regional and global climate. It has been estimated that aerosol may reduce by up to 10% of the seasonal mean solar radiation reaching the earth surface, producing a global cooling effect that opposes global warming (Climate Change 2001). This means that the potential perils that humans have committed to global warming may be far greater than what we can detect at the present. As a key component of the Earth climate system, the water cycle is profoundly affected by the presence of aerosols in the atmosphere. Through the so-called "direct effect", aerosol scatters and/or absorbs solar radiation, thus cooling the earth surface and changing the horizontal and vertical radiational heating contrast in the atmosphere. The heating contrast drives anomalous atmospheric circulation, resulting in changes in convection, clouds, and rainfall. Another way aerosol can affect the water cycle is through the so-called "indirect effects", whereby aerosol increases the number of cloud condensation nuclei, prolongs life time of clouds, and inhibits the growth of cloud drops to raindrops. This leads to more clouds, and increased reflection of solar radiation, and further cooling at the earth surface. In monsoon regions, the response of the water cycle to aerosol forcing is especially complex, not only because of presence of diverse mix of aerosol species with vastly different radiative properties, but also because the monsoon is strongly influenced by ocean and land surface processes, land use, land change, as well as regional and global greenhouse warming effects. Thus, sorting out the impacts of aerosol forcing, and interaction with the monsoon water cycle is a very challenging problem. In this talk, I will offer some insights into how aerosols may impact the Asian monsoon based on preliminary results from satellite observations and climate model experiments. Specifically, I will

  17. Spatial dependence of extreme rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Radi, Noor Fadhilah Ahmad; Zakaria, Roslinazairimah; Satari, Siti Zanariah; Azman, Muhammad Az-zuhri

    2017-05-01

    This study aims to model the spatial extreme daily rainfall process using the max-stable model. The max-stable model is used to capture the dependence structure of spatial properties of extreme rainfall. Three models from max-stable are considered namely Smith, Schlather and Brown-Resnick models. The methods are applied on 12 selected rainfall stations in Kelantan, Malaysia. Most of the extreme rainfall data occur during wet season from October to December of 1971 to 2012. This period is chosen to assure the available data is enough to satisfy the assumption of stationarity. The dependence parameters including the range and smoothness, are estimated using composite likelihood approach. Then, the bootstrap approach is applied to generate synthetic extreme rainfall data for all models using the estimated dependence parameters. The goodness of fit between the observed extreme rainfall and the synthetic data is assessed using the composite likelihood information criterion (CLIC). Results show that Schlather model is the best followed by Brown-Resnick and Smith models based on the smallest CLIC's value. Thus, the max-stable model is suitable to be used to model extreme rainfall in Kelantan. The study on spatial dependence in extreme rainfall modelling is important to reduce the uncertainties of the point estimates for the tail index. If the spatial dependency is estimated individually, the uncertainties will be large. Furthermore, in the case of joint return level is of interest, taking into accounts the spatial dependence properties will improve the estimation process.

  18. A mechanism for land-ocean contrasts in global monsoon trends in a warming climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fasullo, J. [National Center for Atmospheric Research, CAS/NCAR, Boulder, CO (United States)

    2012-09-15

    A central paradox of the global monsoon record involves reported decreases in rainfall over land during an era in which the global hydrologic cycle is both expected and observed to intensify. It is within this context that this work develops a physical basis for both interpreting the observed record and anticipating changes in the monsoons in a warming climate while bolstering the concept of the global monsoon in the context of shared feedbacks. The global-land monsoon record across multiple reanalyses is first assessed. Trends that in other studies have been taken as real are shown to likely be spurious as a result of changes in the assimilated data streams both prior to and during the satellite era. Nonetheless, based on satellite estimates, robust increases in monsoon rainfall over ocean do exist and a physical basis for this land-ocean contrast remains lacking. To address the contrast's causes, simulated trends are therefore assessed. While projections of total rainfall are inconsistent across models, the robust land-ocean contrast identified in observations is confirmed. A feedback mechanism is proposed rooted in the facts that land areas warm disproportionately relative to ocean, and onshore flow is the chief source of monsoonal moisture. Reductions in lower tropospheric relative humidity over land domains are therefore inevitable and these have direct consequences for the monsoonal convective environment including an increase in the lifting condensation level and a shift in the distribution of convection generally towards less frequent and potentially more intense events. The mechanism is interpreted as an important modulating influence on the ''rich-get-richer'' mechanism. Caveats for regional monsoons exist and are discussed. (orig.)

  19. Evaluation of cloud properties in the NCEP CFSv2 model and its linkage with Indian summer monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hazra, Anupam; Chaudhari, Hemantkumar S.; Dhakate, Ashish

    2016-04-01

    Cloud fraction, which varies greatly among general circulation models, plays a crucial role in simulation of Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR). The NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) model is evaluated in terms of its simulation of cloud fraction, cloud condensate, outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), and tropospheric temperature (TT). Biases in these simulated quantities are computed using observations from CALIPSO and reanalysis data from MERRA. It is shown that CFSv2 underestimates (overestimates) high- (mid-) level clouds. The cloud condensate is also examined to see its impact on different types of clouds. The upper-level cloud condensate is underestimated, particularly during the summer monsoon period, which leads to a cold TT and a dry precipitation bias. The unrealistically weak TT gradient between ocean and land is responsible for the underestimation of ISMR. The model-simulated OLR is overestimated which depicts the weaker convective activity. A large underestimate of precipitable water is also seen along the cross-equatorial flow and particularly over the Indian land region collocated with a dry precipitation bias. The linkages among cloud microphysical, thermodynamical, and dynamical processes are identified here. Thus, this study highlights the importance of cloud properties, a major cause of uncertainty in CFSv2, and also proposes a pathway for improvements in its simulation of the Indian summer monsoon.

  20. Ocean-atmosphere interaction and synoptic weather conditions in association with the two contrasting phases of monsoon during BOBMEX-1999

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    S P Ghanekar; V R Mujumdar; P Seetaramayya; U V Bhide

    2003-06-01

    Surface meteorological parameters acquired during the field phase experiment, BOBMEX-99, for the stationary periods (SP I and II) of the ship ORV Sagar Kanya over Bay of Bengal have been analysed. Active and weak monsoon conditions were observed during the first and the second phase of the experiment respectively over India as well as over the stationary ship location. The phase mean sea surface temperature (SST) is found to be the same in both the phases, however large differences have been observed in the phase mean values of wind speed, mean sea level pressure, latent heat and momentum fluxes at air-sea interface. Synoptic scale monsoon disturbances formed only during the period of strong north-south pressure gradient over the Bay region. Events of prominent fall in SST and in the upper 15m ocean layer mean temperature and salinity values during typical rainfall events are cited. The impact of monsoon disturbances on ocean-atmosphere interface transfer processes has been investigated.

  1. Rainfall-triggered lahars at Volcán de Colima, Mexico: Surface hydro-repellency as initiation process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capra, L.; Borselli, L.; Varley, N.; Gavilanes-Ruiz, J. C.; Norini, G.; Sarocchi, D.; Caballero, L.; Cortes, A.

    2010-01-01

    Volcán de Colima is currently the most active volcano in Mexico. Since 1998 intermittent activity has been observed with vulcanian eruptions, lava flows and growing domes that have collapsed producing several block-and-ash flow deposits. During the period of heightened activity since 1998 at Volcán de Colima, pyroclastic flows from dome or column collapse have not reached long distances, most of the time less than 6 km from the crater. In contrast, rain-induced lahars were more frequent and have reached relatively long distances, up to 15 km, causing damage to infrastructure and affecting small villages. In 2007 two rain gauge stations were installed on the southern flank of the volcano registering events from June through to October, the period when rains are intense and lahars frequent. By comparing lahar frequency with rainfall intensity and the rainfall accumulated during the previous 3 days, lahars more frequently occur at the beginning of the rainfall season, with low rain accumulation (debris flows, with alternations between these two flow types. A hydro-repellency mechanism in highly vegetated areas (i.e. evergreen tree types with considerable amount of resins and waxes such as pines) with sandy soils can probably explain the high frequency of lahars at the beginning of the rain season during low rainfall events. Under hydrophobic conditions, infiltration is inhibited and runoff is facilitated at more highly peaked discharges that are more likely to initiate lahars.

  2. See-saw relationship of the Holocene East Asian-Australian summer monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eroglu, Deniz; McRobie, Fiona H.; Ozken, Ibrahim; Stemler, Thomas; Wyrwoll, Karl-Heinz; Breitenbach, Sebastian F. M.; Marwan, Norbert; Kurths, Jürgen

    2016-09-01

    The East Asian-Indonesian-Australian summer monsoon (EAIASM) links the Earth's hemispheres and provides a heat source that drives global circulation. At seasonal and inter-seasonal timescales, the summer monsoon of one hemisphere is linked via outflows from the winter monsoon of the opposing hemisphere. Long-term phase relationships between the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and the Indonesian-Australian summer monsoon (IASM) are poorly understood, raising questions of long-term adjustments to future greenhouse-triggered climate change and whether these changes could `lock in' possible IASM and EASM phase relationships in a region dependent on monsoonal rainfall. Here we show that a newly developed nonlinear time series analysis technique allows confident identification of strong versus weak monsoon phases at millennial to sub-centennial timescales. We find a see-saw relationship over the last 9,000 years--with strong and weak monsoons opposingly phased and triggered by solar variations. Our results provide insights into centennial- to millennial-scale relationships within the wider EAIASM regime.

  3. See–saw relationship of the Holocene East Asian–Australian summer monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eroglu, Deniz; McRobie, Fiona H.; Ozken, Ibrahim; Stemler, Thomas; Wyrwoll, Karl-Heinz; Breitenbach, Sebastian F. M.; Marwan, Norbert; Kurths, Jürgen

    2016-01-01

    The East Asian–Indonesian–Australian summer monsoon (EAIASM) links the Earth's hemispheres and provides a heat source that drives global circulation. At seasonal and inter-seasonal timescales, the summer monsoon of one hemisphere is linked via outflows from the winter monsoon of the opposing hemisphere. Long-term phase relationships between the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and the Indonesian–Australian summer monsoon (IASM) are poorly understood, raising questions of long-term adjustments to future greenhouse-triggered climate change and whether these changes could ‘lock in' possible IASM and EASM phase relationships in a region dependent on monsoonal rainfall. Here we show that a newly developed nonlinear time series analysis technique allows confident identification of strong versus weak monsoon phases at millennial to sub-centennial timescales. We find a see–saw relationship over the last 9,000 years—with strong and weak monsoons opposingly phased and triggered by solar variations. Our results provide insights into centennial- to millennial-scale relationships within the wider EAIASM regime. PMID:27666662

  4. See-saw relationship of the Holocene East Asian-Australian summer monsoon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eroglu, Deniz; McRobie, Fiona H; Ozken, Ibrahim; Stemler, Thomas; Wyrwoll, Karl-Heinz; Breitenbach, Sebastian F M; Marwan, Norbert; Kurths, Jürgen

    2016-09-26

    The East Asian-Indonesian-Australian summer monsoon (EAIASM) links the Earth's hemispheres and provides a heat source that drives global circulation. At seasonal and inter-seasonal timescales, the summer monsoon of one hemisphere is linked via outflows from the winter monsoon of the opposing hemisphere. Long-term phase relationships between the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and the Indonesian-Australian summer monsoon (IASM) are poorly understood, raising questions of long-term adjustments to future greenhouse-triggered climate change and whether these changes could 'lock in' possible IASM and EASM phase relationships in a region dependent on monsoonal rainfall. Here we show that a newly developed nonlinear time series analysis technique allows confident identification of strong versus weak monsoon phases at millennial to sub-centennial timescales. We find a see-saw relationship over the last 9,000 years-with strong and weak monsoons opposingly phased and triggered by solar variations. Our results provide insights into centennial- to millennial-scale relationships within the wider EAIASM regime.

  5. THE CLIMATIC CHARACTERISTICS OF SUMMER MONSOON ONSET OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA I.40-YEAR AVERAGE

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    冯瑞权; 王安宇; 吴池胜; 林建恒; 古志明; 林文实; 谭志文

    2002-01-01

    By using 40-year NCEP reanalysis daily data (1958-1997),we have analyzed the climatic characteristics of summer monsoon onset in the South China Sea (105(E ~120(E,5(N~20(N,to be simplified as SCS in the text followed) pentad by pentad (5 days).According to our new definition,in the monsoon area of the SCS two of the following conditions should be satisfied:1) At 850hPa,the southwest winds should be greater than 2m/s.2) At 850 hPa,should be greater than 335(K.The new definition means that the summer monsoon is the southwest winds with high temperature and high moisture.The onset of the SCS summer monsoon is defined to start when one half of the SCS area (105(E~120(E,5(N~20(N) is controlled by the summer monsoon.The analyzed results revealed the following:1) The summer monsoon in the SCS starts to build up abruptly in the 4th pentad in May.2) The summer monsoon onset in the SCS is resulted from the development and intensification of southwesterly monsoon in the Bay of Bengal.3) The onset of the summer monsoon and establishment of the summer monsoon rainfall season in the SCS occur simultaneously.4) During the summer monsoon onset in the SCS,troughs deepen and widen quickly in the lower troposphere of the India;the subtropical high in the Western Pacific moves eastward off the SCS in the middle troposphere;the easterly advances northward over the SCS in the upper troposphere.

  6. Simulating the complex output of rainfall and hydrological processes using the information contained in large data sets: the Direct Sampling approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oriani, Fabio

    2017-04-01

    The unpredictable nature of rainfall makes its estimation as much difficult as it is essential to hydrological applications. Stochastic simulation is often considered a convenient approach to asses the uncertainty of rainfall processes, but preserving their irregular behavior and variability at multiple scales is a challenge even for the most advanced techniques. In this presentation, an overview on the Direct Sampling technique [1] and its recent application to rainfall and hydrological data simulation [2, 3] is given. The algorithm, having its roots in multiple-point statistics, makes use of a training data set to simulate the outcome of a process without inferring any explicit probability measure: the data are simulated in time or space by sampling the training data set where a sufficiently similar group of neighbor data exists. This approach allows preserving complex statistical dependencies at different scales with a good approximation, while reducing the parameterization to the minimum. The straights and weaknesses of the Direct Sampling approach are shown through a series of applications to rainfall and hydrological data: from time-series simulation to spatial rainfall fields conditioned by elevation or a climate scenario. In the era of vast databases, is this data-driven approach a valid alternative to parametric simulation techniques? [1] Mariethoz G., Renard P., and Straubhaar J. (2010), The Direct Sampling method to perform multiple-point geostatistical simulations, Water. Rerous. Res., 46(11), http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2008WR007621 [2] Oriani F., Straubhaar J., Renard P., and Mariethoz G. (2014), Simulation of rainfall time series from different climatic regions using the direct sampling technique, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3015-3031, http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3015-2014 [3] Oriani F., Borghi A., Straubhaar J., Mariethoz G., Renard P. (2016), Missing data simulation inside flow rate time-series using multiple-point statistics, Environ. Model

  7. A Comparison of Pre-monsoonal and Monsoonal Radiative Forcing by Anthropogenic Aerosols over South Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, S.; Cohen, J. B.; Wang, C.

    2012-12-01

    Radiative forcing by anthropogenic aerosols after monsoon onset is often considered unimportant compared to forcing during the pre-monsoonal period, due to precipitation scavenging. We tested this assumption for the South Asian monsoon using three model runs with forcing prescribed during the pre-monsoonal period (March-May), monsoon period (June-September) and both periods. The forcing represents the direct radiative effects of sulfate, organic carbon and black carbon. It was derived from a set of Kalman filter-optimised black carbon emissions from a modelling system based on the CAM3 GCM, a two-moment multi-scheme aerosol and radiation model, and a coupled urban scale processing package; we expect it to be reliable within its given error bounds. The monthly climatological forcing values were prescribed over South Asia every year for 100 years to CESM 1.0.4, a coupled atmosphere-ocean model. We shall compare the three resultant climatologies with climatologies from a no aerosol model and a full aerosol model.

  8. Rainfall statistics changes in Sicily

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Arnone

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Changes in rainfall characteristics are one of the most relevant signs of current climate alterations. Many studies have demonstrated an increase in rainfall intensity and a reduction of frequency in several areas of the world, including Mediterranean areas. Rainfall characteristics may be crucial for vegetation patterns formation and evolution in Mediterranean ecosystems, with important implications, for example, in vegetation water stress or coexistence and competition dynamics. At the same time, characteristics of extreme rainfall events are fundamental for the estimation of flood peaks and quantiles which can be used in many hydrological applications, such as design of the most common hydraulic structures, or planning and management of flood prone areas.

    In the past, Sicily has been screened for several signals of possible climate change. Annual, seasonal and monthly rainfall data in the entire Sicilian region have been analyzed, showing a global reduction of total annual rainfall. Moreover, annual maximum rainfall series for different durations have been rarely analyzed in order to detect the presence of trends. Results indicated that for short durations, historical series generally exhibit increasing trends while for longer durations the trends are mainly negative.

    Starting from these premises, the aim of this study is to investigate and quantify changes in rainfall statistics in Sicily, during the second half of the last century. Time series of about 60 stations over the region have been processed and screened by using the non parametric Mann–Kendall test.

    Particularly, extreme events have been analyzed using annual maximum rainfall series at 1, 3, 6, 12 and 24 h duration while daily rainfall properties have been analyzed in term of frequency and intensity, also characterizing seasonal rainfall features. Results of extreme events analysis confirmed an increasing trend for rainfall of short durations

  9. Rainfall statistics changes in Sicily

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Arnone

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Changes in rainfall characteristics are one of the most relevant signs of current climate alterations. Many studies have demonstrated an increase in rainfall intensity and a reduction of frequency in several areas of the world, including Mediterranean areas. Rainfall characteristics may be crucial for vegetation patterns formation and evolution in Mediterranean ecosystems, with important implications, for example, in vegetation water stress or coexistence and competition dynamics. At the same time, characteristics of extreme rainfall events are fundamental for the estimation of flood peaks and quantiles that can be used in many hydrological applications, such as design of the most common hydraulic structures, or planning and management of flood-prone areas. In the past, Sicily has been screened for several signals of possible climate change. Annual, seasonal and monthly rainfall data in the entire Sicilian region have been analyzed, showing a global reduction of total annual rainfall. Moreover, annual maximum rainfall series for different durations have been rarely analyzed in order to detect the presence of trends. Results indicated that for short durations, historical series generally exhibit increasing trends, while for longer durations the trends are mainly negative. Starting from these premises, the aim of this study is to investigate and quantify changes in rainfall statistics in Sicily, during the second half of the last century. Time series of about 60 stations over the region have been processed and screened by using the nonparametric Mann–Kendall test. In particular, extreme events have been analyzed using annual maximum rainfall series at 1, 3, 6, 12 and 24 h duration, while daily rainfall properties have been analyzed in terms of frequency and intensity, also characterizing seasonal rainfall features. Results of extreme events analysis confirmed an increasing trend for rainfall of short durations, especially for 1 h rainfall

  10. Toward a 530,000-year Hydroclimate History for the Southern Half of the Australasian Monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gagan, M. K.; Scroxton, N. G.; Kimbrough, A. K.; Krause, C.; Hantoro, W. S.; Ayliffe, L. K.; Dunbar, G. B.; Cheng, H.; Edwards, R. L.; Hellstrom, J. C.; Shen, C. C.; Scott-Gagan, H.; Suwargadi, B. W.; Rifai, H.

    2015-12-01

    Speleothem 18O/16O records have revealed key aspects of past hydroclimates in the northern Australasian monsoon domain on orbital to millennial scales, but much less is known about the southern half of the monsoon system. We aim to develop a hydroclimate history for the southern Australasian monsoon based on speleothems from southwest Sulawesi and Flores, Indonesia (latitudes 5-9oS), which extend back to ~530 kyr BP and 90 kyr BP, respectively. To date, the 18O/16O record for Sulawesi covers glacial terminations TIV (~340 kyr BP), TIII (~245 kyr BP) and TI (~18 kyr BP). The details of each termination are different, however two important hydroclimate patterns are emerging. First, the 18O/16O record shows sharp weakening of the monsoon immediately before each termination. This surprisingly robust pattern marks a southern extension of the northern 'weak monsoon interval', and reinforces the idea that southward monsoon displacement is a fundamental feature of terminations. Second, monsoon intensification around Sulawesi lags the rise in atmospheric CO2 and Antarctic temperature by several thousand years, but parallels the 18O/16O decrease in atmospheric O2. Our finding extends that of Wang et al. (2008) and Cheng et al. (2009) who noted the influence of the low-latitude hydrological cycle on the 18O/16O of tropical transpiration, and its potential for correlating ice core and paleomonsoon records. Further south, the 90-kyr 18O/16O record for Flores shows clear precession-scale antiphasing with China, and southerly positioning of the summer monsoon rainfall belt during Heinrich stadials. Heinrich stadials 5, 4, 2 and 1 occur during wetter intervals in Flores that accompanied relatively high southern summer insolation. Intriguingly, these events are associated with abrupt atmospheric CH4 signals that may be due to increased Southern Hemisphere CH4 production related to intensification of monsoon rainfall over southern tropical land areas (Rhodes et al., 2014).

  11. Heterogeneity of Dutch rainfall

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Witter, J.V.

    1984-01-01

    Rainfall data for the Netherlands have been used in this study to investigate aspects of heterogeneity of rainfall, in particular local differences in rainfall levels, time trends in rainfall, and local differences in rainfall trend. The possible effect of urbanization and industrialization on the

  12. High resolution land surface response of inland moving Indian monsoon depressions over Bay of Bengal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajesh, P. V.; Pattnaik, S.

    2016-05-01

    During Indian summer monsoon (ISM) season, nearly about half of the monsoonal rainfall is brought inland by the low pressure systems called as Monsoon Depressions (MDs). These systems bear large amount of rainfall and frequently give copious amount of rainfall over land regions, therefore accurate forecast of these synoptic scale systems at short time scale can help in disaster management, flood relief, food safety. The goal of this study is to investigate, whether an accurate moisture-rainfall feedback from land surface can improve the prediction of inland moving MDs. High Resolution Land Data Assimilation System (HRLDAS) is used to generate improved land state .i.e. soil moisture and soil temperature profiles by means of NOAH-MP land-surface model. Validation of the model simulated basic atmospheric parameters at surface layer and troposphere reveals that the incursion of high resolution land state yields least Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) with a higher correlation coefficient and facilitates accurate depiction of MDs. Rainfall verification shows that HRLDAS simulations are spatially and quantitatively in more agreement with the observations and the improved surface characteristics could result in the realistic reproduction of the storm spatial structure, movement as well as intensity. These results signify the necessity of investigating more into the land surface-rainfall feedbacks through modifications in moisture flux convergence within the storm.

  13. Efficient Processing of a Rainfall Simulation Watershed on an FPGA-Based Architecture with Fast Access to Neighbourhood Pixels

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yeong LeeSeng

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes a hardware architecture to implement the watershed algorithm using rainfall simulation. The speed of the architecture is increased by utilizing a multiple memory bank approach to allow parallel access to the neighbourhood pixel values. In a single read cycle, the architecture is able to obtain all five values of the centre and four neighbours for a 4-connectivity watershed transform. The storage requirement of the multiple bank implementation is the same as a single bank implementation by using a graph-based memory bank addressing scheme. The proposed rainfall watershed architecture consists of two parts. The first part performs the arrowing operation and the second part assigns each pixel to its associated catchment basin. The paper describes the architecture datapath and control logic in detail and concludes with an implementation on a Xilinx Spartan-3 FPGA.

  14. Efficient Processing of a Rainfall Simulation Watershed on an FPGA-Based Architecture with Fast Access to Neighbourhood Pixels

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kah Phooi Seng

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes a hardware architecture to implement the watershed algorithm using rainfall simulation. The speed of the architecture is increased by utilizing a multiple memory bank approach to allow parallel access to the neighbourhood pixel values. In a single read cycle, the architecture is able to obtain all five values of the centre and four neighbours for a 4-connectivity watershed transform. The storage requirement of the multiple bank implementation is the same as a single bank implementation by using a graph-based memory bank addressing scheme. The proposed rainfall watershed architecture consists of two parts. The first part performs the arrowing operation and the second part assigns each pixel to its associated catchment basin. The paper describes the architecture datapath and control logic in detail and concludes with an implementation on a Xilinx Spartan-3 FPGA.

  15. Interdecadal change of the controlling mechanisms for East Asian early summer rainfall variation around the mid-1990s

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yim, So-Young; Wang, Bin; Kwon, MinHo

    2014-03-01

    East Asian (EA) summer monsoon shows considerable differences in the mean state and principal modes of interannual variation between early summer (May-June, MJ) and late summer (July-August, JA). The present study focuses on the early summer (MJ) precipitation variability. We find that the interannual variation of the MJ precipitation and the processes controlling the variation have been changed abruptly around the mid-1990s. The rainfall anomaly represented by the leading empirical orthogonal function has changed from a dipole-like pattern in pre-95 epoch (1979-1994) to a tripole-like pattern in post-95 epoch (1995-2010); the prevailing period of the corresponding principal component has also changed from 3-5 to 2-3 years. These changes are concurrent with the changes of the corresponding El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) evolutions. During the pre-95 epoch, the MJ EA rainfall anomaly is coupled to a slow decay of canonical ENSO events signified by an eastern Pacific warming, which induces a dipole rainfall feature over EA. On the other hand, during the post-95 epoch the anomalous MJ EA rainfall is significantly linked to a rapid decay of a central Pacific warming and a distinct tripolar sea surface temperature (SST) in North Atlantic. The central Pacific warming-induced Philippine Sea anticyclone induces an increased rainfall in southern China and decreased rainfall in central eastern China. The North Atlantic Oscillation-related tripolar North Atlantic SST anomaly induces a wave train that is responsible for the increase northern EA rainfall. Those two impacts form the tripole-like rainfall pattern over EA. Understanding such changes is important for improving seasonal to decadal predictions and long-term climate change in EA.

  16. Searching for a fingerprint of global warming in the Asian summer monsoon

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stephenson, D.B.; Douville, H.; Kumar, K.R. [University of Reading, Reading (United Kingdom). Dept. of Meteorology

    2001-07-01

    This study investigates possible trends in several large-scale indices that describe the Asian summer monsoon. Results from recent atmospheric general circulating experiments are used to provide clues as to how the monsoon might be changing due to the effects of global warming. Interestingly, this study has found that the large-scale wind shear monsoon indices have been decreasing at a rate of 0.1-0.3% per year (based on NCEP/NCAR (National Centre for Atmospheric Research) analyses 1958-98) in quantitative agreement with recent results from doubled CO{sub 2} simulations made using several state-of-the-art climate models. Nevertheless, despite the weakening of the monsoon circulation, all-India rainfall shows no clear trend in either the model results or in the observation re-analyses from 1958-98. Multiple regression is used to separte out the dynamical contribution from the observed all-India rainfall index, and a clear increasing trend then emerges in the non-dynamical residual. A simple dimensionless multivariate monsoon index is proposed that could be of use in monitoring global warming changes in the monsoon. 31 refs., 2 figs., 3 tabs.

  17. An improved south Asian summer monsoon index with Monte Carlo test

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Shi Neng; Gu Jun-Qiang; Yi Yan-Ming; Lin Zhen-Min

    2005-01-01

    The Indian monsoon intensity index suggested by Webster and Yang (WY index) is optimized and improved in this paper. At first, the area (40°E-110°E, 0°-20°N) for calculating the zonal wind-shear between 850hPa and 200hPa in the WY index is optimized and adjusted according to the significance test of differences of wind fields. Then the regionally averaged zonal wind is computed over the optimized area. Finally, the optimal linear combination of the zonal winds at the two levels is performed using the regression method, thus defining a new broad-scale circulation index for the interannual variability of the south Asian summer monsoon, i.e. the improved south Asian summer monsoon index. Results indicate that the improved south Asian summer monsoon index has two advantages: its correlation with the All Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall index is higher than that of WY index, and its computational domain of circulation is also larger than that of WY index. The computational results based on the 1948-98 NCAR/NCEP wind data indicate that the correlation of the improved SASM index with the All Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall index is higher than that of WY index by 0.27.

  18. Simulation of the Indian monsoon and its variability during the last millennium

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Polanski

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available The general circulation model ECHAM5 has been used to simulate the Indian monsoon and its variability during the Medieval Warm Period (MWP; 900–1100 AD, the Little Ice Age (LIA; 1515–1715 AD and for recent climate (REC; 1800–2000 AD. The focus is on the analysis of external drivers and internal feedbacks leading to extreme rainfall events over India from interannual to multidecadal time scale. An evaluation of spatiotemporal monsoon patterns with present-day observation data is in agreement with other state-of-the-art monsoon modeling studies. The simulated monsoon intensity on multidecadal time scale is weakened (enhanced in summer (winter due to colder (warmer SSTs in the Indian Ocean. Variations in solar insolation are the main drivers for these SST anomalies, verified by very strong temporal anticorrelations between Total Solar Irradiance and All-India-Monsoon-Rainfall in summer monsoon months. The external solar forcing is coupled and overlain by internal climate modes of the ocean (ENSO and IOD with asynchronous intensities and lengths of periods.

    In addition, the model simulations have been compared with a relative moisture index derived from paleoclimatic reconstructions based on various proxies and archives in India. In this context, the Lonar record in Central India has been highlighted and evaluated the first time. The simulated relative annual rainfall anomalies in comparison to present-day climate are in agreement (disagreement with the reconstructed moisture index for MWP (LIA climate.

    In order to investigate the interannual monsoon variability with respect to monsoon failures, dry summer monsoon composites for 30-yr-long periods of MWP, LIA and REC have been further analysed. Within dry years of LIA, the summer rainfall over India and surrounding oceans is less than in MWP indicating stronger drying conditions due to a stronger summer solar insolation forcing coupled with variations in ENSO. To quantify the

  19. Air-sea interaction over the Indian Ocean during the two contrasting monsoon years 1987 and 1988 studied with satellite data

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    RameshKumar, M.R.; Schluessel, P.

    interannual variability in three important aspects. These are The onset date over the Kerala coast, The total quantum of monsoon rainfall, and The duration of the active/break periods within the monsoon life cycle (onset – active – weak – break – active... of the moisture required for the monsoon rainfall. Studies by Hastenarath and Lamb (1980), Cadet and Reverdin (1981a,b), Cadet and Greco (1987) as well as Sadhuram and Ramesh Kumar (1988) stressed the importance of the interhemispheric moisture transport. Sad...

  20. The quest for consistent representation of rainfall and realistic simulation of process interactions in flood risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Efstratiadis, Andreas; Papalexiou, Simon-Michael

    2010-05-01

    We present a methodological framework for the estimation of flood risk in the Boeoticos Kephisos river basin, in Greece, draining an area of 1850 km2. This is a challenging task since the basin has many peculiarities. Due to the dominance of highly-permeable geologic formations, significant portion of runoff derives from karst springs, which rapidly contribute to the streamflow, in contrast to the unusually low contribution of direct (flood) runoff. In addition, due to the combined abstractions from surface and groundwater recourses and the existence of an artificial drainage network in the lower part of the basin (where slopes are noticeably low), the system is heavily modified. To evaluate the probability of extreme floods, especially in such complex basins, it is essential to provide both a statistically consistent description of forcing (precipitation) and a realistic simulation of the runoff mechanisms. Typically, flood modelling is addressed through event-based tools that use deterministic design storms and empirical formulas for the estimation of the "effective" rainfall and its transformation to runoff. Yet, there are several shortcomings in such approaches, especially when employed to large-scale systems. First, the widely-used methodologies for constructing design storms fail to properly represent the variability of rainfall, since they do not account for the temporal and spatial correlations of the historical records. For instance, it is assumed that the input storms to all sub-basins correspond to the same return period. On the other hand, "event-based" models do not allow for interpreting flood risk as joint probabilities of all hydrological variables that interrelate in runoff generation (rainfall, stream-aquifer interactions, soil moisture accounting). Finally, for the estimation of model parameters, the typical approach is to calibrate them against normally few historical flood events, which is at least questionable - the information embedded within

  1. Sensitivity of convective precipitation to soil moisture and vegetation during break spell of Indian summer monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kutty, Govindan; Sandeep, S.; Vinodkumar; Nhaloor, Sreejith

    2017-07-01

    Indian summer monsoon rainfall is characterized by large intra-seasonal fluctuations in the form of active and break spells in rainfall. This study investigates the role of soil moisture and vegetation on 30-h precipitation forecasts during the break monsoon period using Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model. The working hypothesis is that reduced rainfall, clear skies, and wet soil condition during the break monsoon period enhance land-atmosphere coupling over central India. Sensitivity experiments are conducted with modified initial soil moisture and vegetation. The results suggest that an increase in antecedent soil moisture would lead to an increase in precipitation, in general. The precipitation over the core monsoon region has increased by enhancing forest cover in the model simulations. Parameters such as Lifting Condensation Level, Level of Free Convection, and Convective Available Potential Energy indicate favorable atmospheric conditions for convection over forests, when wet soil conditions prevail. On spatial scales, the precipitation is more sensitive to soil moisture conditions over northeastern parts of India. Strong horizontal gradient in soil moisture and orographic uplift along the upslopes of Himalaya enhanced rainfall over the east of Indian subcontinent.

  2. Daily variations in pathogenic bacterial populations in a monsoon influenced tropical environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khandeparker, Lidita; Anil, Arga Chandrashekar; Naik, Sneha D; Gaonkar, Chetan C

    2015-07-15

    Changing climatic conditions have influenced the monsoon pattern in recent years. Variations in bacterial population in one such tropical environment were observed everyday over two years and point out intra and inter annual changes driven by the intensity of rainfall. Vibrio spp. were abundant during the monsoon and so were faecal coliforms. Vibrio alginolyticus were negatively influenced by nitrate, whereas, silicate and rainfall positively influenced Vibrio parahaemolyticus numbers. It is also known that pathogenic bacteria are associated with the plankton. Changes in the abundance of plankton, which are governed mainly by environmental changes, could be responsible for variation in pathogenic bacterial abundance during monsoon, other than the land runoff due to precipitation and influx of fresh water.

  3. Statistical Analysis of 30 Years Rainfall Data: A Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arvind, G.; Ashok Kumar, P.; Girish Karthi, S.; Suribabu, C. R.

    2017-07-01

    Rainfall is a prime input for various engineering design such as hydraulic structures, bridges and culverts, canals, storm water sewer and road drainage system. The detailed statistical analysis of each region is essential to estimate the relevant input value for design and analysis of engineering structures and also for crop planning. A rain gauge station located closely in Trichy district is selected for statistical analysis where agriculture is the prime occupation. The daily rainfall data for a period of 30 years is used to understand normal rainfall, deficit rainfall, Excess rainfall and Seasonal rainfall of the selected circle headquarters. Further various plotting position formulae available is used to evaluate return period of monthly, seasonally and annual rainfall. This analysis will provide useful information for water resources planner, farmers and urban engineers to assess the availability of water and create the storage accordingly. The mean, standard deviation and coefficient of variation of monthly and annual rainfall was calculated to check the rainfall variability. From the calculated results, the rainfall pattern is found to be erratic. The best fit probability distribution was identified based on the minimum deviation between actual and estimated values. The scientific results and the analysis paved the way to determine the proper onset and withdrawal of monsoon results which were used for land preparation and sowing.

  4. Shift in Indian summer monsoon onset during 1976/1977

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahana, A. S.; Ghosh, Subimal; Ganguly, Auroop; Murtugudde, Raghu

    2015-05-01

    The Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) contributes nearly 80% of the annual rainfall over India and has a significant influence on the country’s gross domestic product through the agricultural sector. Onset of the ISMR displays substantial interannual variability and controls the crop calendar and hence the agricultural output. This variability is traditionally linked to sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the tropical Pacific Ocean. The tropical Pacific SST underwent a regime shift during 1976/77. We report a prominent delay in the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) onset following the regime shift. The onset dates are computed with the Hydrologic Onset and Withdrawal Index, based on vertically integrated moisture transport over the Arabian Sea (AS). The shift in onset is found to be due to the change in moisture availability over the AS. A delay in the development of easterly vertical shear reduces northward-propagating intraseasonal variability during May-June, limiting the moisture supply from the equatorial Indian Ocean (IO) to the AS. This, along with enhanced precipitation over the IO during the pre-monsoon, drives a reduction in moisture availability over the AS region from pre- to post-1976/77, delaying the ISM onset in recent decades. Our findings highlight the need for the re-assessment of the crop calendar in India, which is now based on the mean onset date computed from long-term data, without considering the regime shift or trends in onset.

  5. Evaluation of NCEP TIGGE short-range forecast for Indian summer monsoon intraseasonal oscillation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tirkey, Snehlata; Mukhopadhyay, P.

    2017-08-01

    This study focuses on the short-range prediction of Monsoon Intraseasonal Oscillations (MISOs) using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction(NCEP) Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) data from The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) archive. The Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR), which plays an important role in the socio-economic growth of the country, is highly variable and is mostly governed by the MISOs. In addition to this, deterministic forecasts of ISMR are not very reliable. Hence, a probabilistic approach at daily scale is required. Keeping this in mind, the present analysis is done by using daily forecast data for up to 7-day lead time and compared with observations. The analysis shows that the ensemble forecast well captures the variability as compared to observations even up to 7 days. The spatial characteristics and the northward propagation of MISO are observed thoroughly in the EPS. The evolution of dynamical and thermodynamical parameters such as specific humidity, moist static energy, moisture divergence, and vorticity is also captured well but show deviation from the observation from 96 h lead time onwards. The tropospheric temperature forecast captures the observed gradient but with certain bias in magnitude whereas the wind shear is simulated quite well both in pattern and magnitude. These analyses bring out the biases in TIGGE EPS forecast and also point out the possible moist processes which needs to be improved.

  6. Comparative Hydrology Over Monsoonal Regions Using Seasonal Distributions of Stable Water Isotopes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, D. P.; Worden, J.; Noone, D. C.

    2007-12-01

    The hydrologic regimes of monsoonal regions contain complex balances of large-scale advective supply of water, surface exchange and atmospheric condensation, which are important for the regional energy balance and climate. Stable water isotopes are powerful tools for studying such processes, as isotopic fractionations occurring during evaporation and condensation give rise to measurable variations in the isotopic composition that reflects the history of moist processes for each observed air parcel. The HDO/H2O data set from the Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES) on NASA's Aura spacecraft offers a unique global view of the isotopic composition of water vapor. The TES data set, and the analysis here, is complimentary to previous work using isotopic ratios in precipitation; however it need not be that the simple relationships found in the precipitation data hold for the atmospheric vapor case because of the variability induced by atmospheric mixing and convection. Over tropical continents, the intensity of water vapor recycling, precipitation rates and circulation patterns are thought to dominate the seasonal isotopic composition of water vapor and rainfall. By examining and contrasting the isotopic budgets of the Amazon, north Australia, and Asian monsoon regions, we gain insight into these hydrological processes, show which processes are regionally robust, and expose those processes that are regionally unique. To establish the importance of local processes on the regional isotopic composition, we first examine the relationship between the measured isotopic composition and meteorological parameters that capture the strength of the local processes. Secondly, we use the history of condensation, evaporation and air mass mixing during transport from five-day origin locations to the local TES observations, and the isotopic ratios of vapor at both locations, to examine isotopic changes that occur upstream. Using this information, as well as a simple isotopic exchange

  7. East China Sea δ18O Record Detects Millennial-Scale Changes in the East Asian Summer Monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gleeman, E.; Clemens, S. C.; Lawman, A. E.; Kubota, Y.; Holbourn, A. E.; Martin, A.

    2015-12-01

    The East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) brings heavy summer rainfall to some of Asia's most densely-populated areas, impacting agricultural production and water resources. Sediment cores were recovered from International Ocean Drilling Program Site U1429 in the East China Sea (31° 37.04' N, 128° 59.50' E, 732 mbsl). This location receives runoff from the Yangtze River, which serves as a major drainage system for monsoon-induced precipitation. Hence, the δ18O record of planktonic foraminifera at Site U1429 reflects changes in regional, monsoon-driven salinity. The top 100 meters of core at Site U1429 were sampled at a preliminary resolution of 15 cm and processed to isolate the planktonic foraminifer Globigerinoides ruber for δ18O mass spectrometry analyses. Abrupt, millennial-scale regional climate variability in the EASM and its linkage to orbital forcings have been reconstructed using stratigraphic analysis of δ18O. The sub-orbital scale structure of the δ18O record over the past 400 kyr matches the structures of both the composite speleothem δ18O from eastern China (Sanbao and Hulu caves) and the planktonic δ18O record from northern South China Sea Site 1146. The similarities between these δ18O records indicate a strong regional response to monsoon forcing. Removal of the temperature component of the δ18O signal by using Mg/Ca (G. ruber) paleothermometry will provide a record of changes in the δ18O composition of seawater in response to Yangtze River runoff.

  8. Soil moisture initialization effects in the Indian monsoon system

    OpenAIRE

    Asharaf, S.; A. Dobler; Ahrens, B.

    2011-01-01

    Towards the goal to understand the role of land-surface processes over the Indian sub-continent, a series of soil-moisture sensitivity simulations have been performed using a non-hydrostatic regional climate model COSMO-CLM. The experiments were driven by the lateral boundary conditions provided by the ERA-Interim (ECMWF) reanalysis. The simulation results show that the pre-monsoonal soil moisture has a significant influence on the monsoonal precipitation. Both, positive and negative soil-moi...

  9. Long term spatial and temporal rainfall trends and homogeneity analysis in Wainganga basin, Central India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arun Kumar Taxak

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Gridded rainfall data of 0.5×0.5° resolution (CRU TS 3.21 was analysed to study long term spatial and temporal trends on annual and seasonal scales in Wainganga river basin located in Central India during 1901–2012. After testing the presence of autocorrelation, Mann–Kendall (Modified Mann–Kendall test was applied to non-auto correlated (auto correlated series to detect the trends in rainfall data. Theil and Sen׳s slope estimator test was used for finding the magnitude of change over a time period. For detecting the most probable change year, Pettitt–Mann–Whitney test was applied. The Rainfall series was then divided into two partial duration series for finding changes in trends before and after the change year. Arc GIS was used to explore spatial patterns of the trends over the entire basin. Though most of the grid points shows a decreasing trend in annual rainfall, only seven grids has a significant decreasing trend during 1901–2012. On the basis of seasonal trend analysis, non-significant increasing trend is observed only in post monsoon season while seven grid points show significant decreasing trend in monsoon rainfall and non-significant in pre-monsoon and winter rainfall over the last 112 years. During the study period, overall a 8.45% decrease in annual rainfall is estimated. The most probable year of change was found to be 1948 in annual and monsoonal rainfall. There is an increasing rainfall trend in the basin during the period 1901–1948, which is reversed during the period 1949–2012 resulting in decreasing rainfall trend in the basin. Homogeneous trends in annual and seasonal rainfall over a grid points is exhibited in the basin by van Belle and Hughes׳ homogeneity trend test.

  10. Energetics of lower tropospheric ultra-long waves: A key to intra-seasonal variability of Indian monsoon

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    S M Bawiskar; M D Chipade; P V Puranik

    2009-04-01

    Analysis of fifty four (1951-2004)years of daily energetics of zonal waves derived from NCEP/ NCAR wind ( and data and daily rainfall received over the Indian landmass (real time data) during southwest monsoon season (1 June-30 September)indicate that energetics (momentum transport and kinetic energy)of lower tropospheric ultra-long waves (waves 1 and 2)of low latitudes hold a key to intra-seasonal variability of monsoon rainfall over India. Correlation coefficient between climatology of daily (122 days)energetics of ultra-long waves and climatology of daily rainfall over Indian landmass is 0.9.The relation is not only significant but also has a predictive potential.The normalised plot of both the series clearly indicates that the response period of rainfall to the energetics is of 5-10 days during the onset phase and 4-7 days during the withdrawal phase of monsoon over India.During the established phase of monsoon, both the series move hand-in-hand.Normalised plot of energetics of ultra-long waves and rainfall for individual year do not show marked deviation with respect to climatology.These results are first of its kind and are useful for the short range forecast of rainfall over India.

  11. Cloud Radiative Forcing in Asian Monsoon Region Simulated by IPCC AR4 AMIP Models

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI Jiandong; LIU Yimin; WU Guoxiong

    2009-01-01

    This study examines cloud radiative forcing (CRF) in the Asian monsoon region (0°-50°N,60°-150°E)simulated by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) AMIP models.During boreal winter,no model realistically reproduces the larger long-wave cloud radiative forcing (LWCF) over the Tibet Plateau (TP) and only a couple of models reasonably capture the larger short-wave CRF (SWCF) to the east of the TP.During boreal summer,there are larger biases for central location and intensity of simulated CRF in active convective regions.The CRF biases are closely related to the rainfall biases in the models.Quantitative analysis further indicates that the correlation between simulated CRF and observations are not high,and that the biases and diversity in SWCF are larger than that in LWCF.The annual cycle of simulated CRF over East Asia (0°-50°N,100°-145°E) is also examined.Though many models capture the basic annual cycle in tropics,strong LWCF and SWCF to the east of the TP beginning in early spring are underestimated by most models.As a whole,GFDL-CM2.1,MPI-ECHAM5,UKMO-HadGAM1,and MIROC3.2 (medres) perform well for CRF simulation in the Asian monsoon region,and the multi-model ensemble (MME) has improved results over the individual simulations. It is suggested that strengthening the physical parameterizations involved over the TP,and improving cumulus convection processes and model experiment design are crucial to CRF simulation in the Asian monsoon region.

  12. Evaluation of MODIS Vegetation Products in Regions of Complex Terrain and Monsoon Climates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gebremichael, M.; Barros, A. P.

    2004-12-01

    An evaluation of the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) vegetation products through comparison against independent surface observations is essential to establish quantitative measures of uncertainty and the confidence level of these satellite-based products for use in land-data assimilation models, for land-use change detection and attribution studies, and for process oriented research. Here, we focus specifically on Photosynthesis and Primary Productivity, Leaf Area Index (LAI) and Fraction of Photosynthetically Active Radiation (FPAR), Land Surface Temperature and Emissivity, and Evapotranspiration data sets. Our objective is to perform extensive quantitative assessment of the accuracy and statistical properties of these products against independent estimates in tropical mountainous regions at two climatologically distinct sites. The first site, the Sonora river basin in northern Mexico, is a semi-arid region characterized by complex topography and highly heterogeneous vegetation cover, which exhibits dramatic and fast response to rainfall forcing at the onset of the North-American Monsoon. The second site, the Marsyandi river basin in central Nepal, is a humid region characterized by strong ecohydrological gradients on steep orography, which remain generally stable subsequent to the onset of the Indian Monsoon. Atmospheric soundings, flux tower measurements, and raingauge observations are available for both sites. We evaluate the MODIS products in two ways: 1) comparison with tower-based observations, and 2) evaluation of hydrological response and diurnal cycles of surface water and energy budgets prior, during and post monsoon onset as simulated by a 3D hydroecological model with assimilation of MODIS data. Statistical analysis of the scaling behavior of the variables, both in space and time, is also performed to address the scale discrepancy between flux tower observations and the resolution of MODIS data.

  13. The effect of El-Niño on South Asian Monsoon and agricultural production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mukherjee, A.

    2015-12-01

    Mukherjee A, Wang S.Y.Abstract:The South Asian Monsoon has a prominent and significant impact on South Asian countries like India, Bangladesh, Nepal, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and it is one of the most studied phenomena in the world. The monsoon is historically known to be influenced by El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The inter-annual and inter-decadal variability of seasonal precipitation over India strongly depends upon the ENSO phasing. The average southwest monsoon rainfall received during the years with El Niño was found to be less compared to normal years and the average rainfall during the northeast monsoon is higher in coastal Andhra Pradesh. ENSO is anti-correlated with Indian summer monsoon (ISM). The last prominent effect of ENSO on India's monsoon occurred in 2009 with 23% reduction in annual rainfall, reducing summer sown crops such as rice, sugar cane etc. and pushing up food prices. Climatic resources endowment plays a major role in planning agricultural production in tropical and sub-tropical environment especially under rain-fed agriculture, and so contingent crop planning drawn on this relationship would help to mitigate the effects of ENSO episodes in the region. The unexplored area in this domain of research is the changes in the frequency and intensity of ENSO due to global warming and its impact on ENSO prediction and agricultural management practices. We analyze the last 30 years datasets of Pacific SST, and precipitation and air temperature over Southeast Asia to examine the evolution of ENSO teleconnections with ISM, as well as making estimates of drought indices such as Palmer Drought Severity Index. This research can lead toward better crop management strategies in the South Asian monsoon region.

  14. Atlantic effects on recent decadal trends in global monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamae, Youichi; Li, Xichen; Xie, Shang-Ping; Ueda, Hiroaki

    2017-01-01

    Natural climate variability contributes to recent decadal climate trends. Specifically the trends during the satellite era since 1979 include Atlantic and Indian Ocean warming and Pacific cooling associated with phase shifts of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and enhanced global monsoon (GM) circulation and rainfall especially in the Northern Hemisphere. Here we evaluate effects of the oceanic changes on the global and regional monsoon trends by partial ocean temperature restoring experiments in a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model. Via trans-basin atmosphere-ocean teleconnections, the Atlantic warming drives a global pattern of sea surface temperature change that resembles observations, giving rise to the enhanced GM. The tropical Atlantic warming and the resultant Indian Ocean warming favor subtropical deep-tropospheric warming in both hemispheres, resulting in the enhanced monsoon circulations and precipitation over North America, South America and North Africa. The extratropical North Atlantic warming makes an additional contribution to the monsoon enhancement via Eurasian continent warming and resultant land-sea thermal gradient over Asia. The results of this study suggest that the Atlantic multidecadal variability can explain a substantial part of global climate variability including the recent decadal trends of GM.

  15. Global association of the Madden-Julian Oscillation with monsoon lows and depressions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haertel, Patrick; Boos, William R.

    2017-08-01

    Previous research has revealed that monsoon lows and depressions are modulated on intraseasonal time scales in a few regions, including India, Australia, and the East Pacific. This study examines whether such modulation occurs on a global scale and, in particular, how the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is associated with changes in synoptic-scale vortices across all monsoon regions. The spatial climatology of monsoon disturbances is largely insensitive to MJO amplitude. However, monsoon disturbance frequency (MDF) varies substantially with MJO phase, with regional perturbations of 25 to 90% of the seasonal mean value across the tropics. In off-equatorial locations, MDF maxima occur in locations where the MJO enhances low level cyclonic vorticity, typically near the western edge of midlevel moisture perturbations. In contrast, equatorial MDF perturbations are in phase with MJO moisture and rainfall anomalies, with maxima in regions with strong low level zonal wind convergence.

  16. The influence of land cover change in the Asian monsoon region on present-day and mid-Holocene climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Dallmeyer

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Using the general circulation model ECHAM5/JSBACH, we investigate the biogeophysical effect of large-scale afforestation and deforestation in the Asian monsoon domain on present-day and mid-Holocene climate. We demonstrate that the applied land cover change does not only modify the local climate but also change the climate in North Africa and the Middle East via teleconnections. Deforestation in the Asian monsoon domain enhances the rainfall in North Africa. In parts of the Sahara summer precipitation is more than doubled. In contrast, afforestation strongly decreases summer rainfall in the Middle East and even leads to the cessation of the rainfall-activity in some parts of this region.

    Regarding the local climate, deforestation results in a reduction of precipitation and a cooler climate as grass mostly has a higher albedo than forests. However, in the core region of the Asian monsoon the decrease of evaporative cooling in the monsoon season overcompensates this signal and results in a net warming. Afforestation has mainly the opposite effect, although the pattern of change is less clear. It leads to more precipitation in most parts of the Asian monsoon domain and a warmer climate except for the southern regions where a stronger evaporation decreases near-surface temperatures in the monsoon season.

    When prescribing mid-Holocene insolation, the pattern of local precipitation change differs. Afforestation particularly increases monsoon rainfall in the region along the Yellow River which was the settlement area of major prehistoric cultures. In this region, the effect of land cover change on precipitation is half as large as the orbitally-induced precipitation change. Thus, our model results reveal that mid- to late-Holocene land cover change could strongly have contributed to the decreasing Asian monsoon precipitation during the Holocene known from reconstructions.

  17. The influence of land cover change in the Asian monsoon region on present-day and mid-Holocene climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dallmeyer, A.; Claussen, M.

    2011-06-01

    Using the general circulation model ECHAM5/JSBACH, we investigate the biogeophysical effect of large-scale afforestation and deforestation in the Asian monsoon domain on present-day and mid-Holocene climate. We demonstrate that the applied land cover change does not only modify the local climate but also change the climate in North Africa and the Middle East via teleconnections. Deforestation in the Asian monsoon domain enhances the rainfall in North Africa. In parts of the Sahara summer precipitation is more than doubled. In contrast, afforestation strongly decreases summer rainfall in the Middle East and even leads to the cessation of the rainfall-activity in some parts of this region. Regarding the local climate, deforestation results in a reduction of precipitation and a cooler climate as grass mostly has a higher albedo than forests. However, in the core region of the Asian monsoon the decrease in evaporative cooling in the monsoon season overcompensates this signal and results in a net warming. Afforestation has mainly the opposite effect, although the pattern of change is less clear. It leads to more precipitation in most parts of the Asian monsoon domain and a warmer climate except for the southern regions where a stronger evaporation decreases near-surface temperatures in the monsoon season. When prescribing mid-Holocene insolation, the pattern of local precipitation change differs. Afforestation particularly increases monsoon rainfall in the region along the Yellow River which was the settlement area of major prehistoric cultures. In this region, the effect of land cover change on precipitation is half as large as the orbitally-induced precipitation change. Thus, our model results reveal that mid- to late-Holocene land cover change could strongly have contributed to the decreasing Asian monsoon precipitation during the Holocene known from reconstructions.

  18. The Glacial-Interglacial Monsoon Recorded by Speleothems from Sulawesi, Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kimbrough, A. K.; Gagan, M. K.; Dunbar, G. B.; Krause, C.; Hantoro, W. S.; Cheng, H.; Edwards, R. L.; Shen, C. C.; Sun, H.; Cai, B.; Hellstrom, J. C.; Rifai, H.

    2015-12-01

    The Indo-Pacific Warm Pool is a primary source of heat and moisture to the global atmosphere and a key player in tropical and global climate variability. There is mounting evidence that atmospheric convection and oceanic processes in the tropics can modulate global climate on orbital and sub-orbital timescales. Glacial-interglacial cycles represent the largest natural climate changes over the last 800 kyr with each cycle terminated by rapid global warming and sea level rise. Our understanding of the role and response of tropical atmospheric convection during these periods of dramatic warming is limited. We present the first speleothem paleomonsoon record for southwest Sulawesi (5ºS, 119ºE), spanning two glacial-interglacial cycles, including glacial termination IV (~340 kyr BP) and both phases of termination III (~248 and ~220 kyr BP). This unique record is constructed from multiple stalagmites from two separate caves and is based on a multi-proxy approach (δ18O, δ13C, Mg/Ca, Sr/Ca) that provides insight into the mechanisms controlling Australian-Indonesian summer monsoon variability. Speleothem δ18O and trace element data indicate a rapid increase in rainfall at glacial terminations and wet interglacials. Terminations IV, III, and I are each characterized by an abrupt 3‰ decrease in δ18O. Variability in δ18O leading-in to glacial terminations is also similar, and corresponds to October insolation. Prior to deglaciation, there is a distinct shift to higher δ18O that is synchronized with weak monsoon intervals in Chinese speleothem records. The remarkably consistent pattern among terminations implies that the response of tropical convection to changing background climates is well regulated. Furthermore, we find that speleothem δ13C leads δ18O by ~5 kyr during glacial terminations. The early decrease in speleothem δ13C may reflect the response of tropical vegetation to rising atmospheric CO2 and temperature, rather than regional changes in rainfall.

  19. Enhanced Orographic Tropical Rainfall: An Study of the Colombia's rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peñaranda, V. M.; Hoyos Ortiz, C. D.; Mesa, O. J.

    2015-12-01

    Convection in tropical regions may be enhanced by orographic barriers. The orographic enhancement is an intensification of rain rates caused by the forced lifting of air over a mountainous structure. Orographic heavy rainfall events, occasionally, comes along by flooding, debris flow and substantial amount of looses, either economics or human lives. Most of the heavy convective rainfall events, occurred in Colombia, have left a lot of victims and material damages by flash flooding. An urgent action is required by either scientific communities or society, helping to find preventive solutions against these kind of events. Various scientific literature reports address the feedback process between the convection and the local orographic structures. The orographic enhancement could arise by several physical mechanism: precipitation transport on leeward side, convection triggered by the forcing of air over topography, the seeder-feeder mechanism, among others. The identification of the physical mechanisms for orographic enhancement of rainfall has not been studied over Colombia. As far as we know, orographic convective tropical rainfall is just the main factor for the altitudinal belt of maximum precipitation, but the lack of detailed hydro-meteorological measurements have precluded a complete understanding of the tropical rainfall in Colombia and its complex terrain. The emergence of the multifractal theory for rainfall has opened a field of research which builds a framework for parsimonious modeling of physical process. Studies about the scaling behavior of orographic rainfall have found some modulating functions between the rainfall intensity probability distribution and the terrain elevation. The overall objective is to advance in the understanding of the orographic influence over the Colombian tropical rainfall based on observations and scaling-analysis techniques. We use rainfall maps, weather radars scans and ground-based rainfall data. The research strategy is

  20. A multiple threshold method for fitting the generalized Pareto distribution and a simple representation of the rainfall process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deidda, R.

    2010-07-01

    Previous studies indicate the generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) as a suitable distribution function to reliably describe the exceedances of daily rainfall records above a proper optimum threshold, which should be selected as small as possible to retain the largest sample while assuring an acceptable fitting. Such an optimum threshold may differ from site to site, affecting consequently not only the GPD scale parameter, but also the probability of threshold exceedance. Thus a first objective of this paper is to derive some expressions to parameterize a simple threshold-invariant three-parameter distribution function which is able to describe zero and non zero values of rainfall time series by assuring a perfect overlapping with the GPD fitted on the exceedances of any threshold larger than the optimum one. Since the proposed distribution does not depend on the local thresholds adopted for fitting the GPD, it will only reflect the on-site climatic signature and thus appears particularly suitable for hydrological applications and regional analyses. A second objective is to develop and test the Multiple Threshold Method (MTM) to infer the parameters of interest on the exceedances of a wide range of thresholds using again the concept of parameters threshold-invariance. We show the ability of the MTM in fitting historical daily rainfall time series recorded with different resolutions. Finally, we prove the supremacy of the MTM fit against the standard single threshold fit, often adopted for partial duration series, by evaluating and comparing the performances on Monte Carlo samples drawn by GPDs with different shape and scale parameters and different discretizations.

  1. Monsoonal precipitation variation in the East Asia since A.D. 1840--Tree-ring evidences from China and Korea

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LIU; Yu(刘禹); Won-Kyu; Park; CAI; Qiufang(蔡秋芳); Jung-Wook; Seo; Hyun-Sook; Jung

    2003-01-01

    Three tree-ring rainfall reconstructions from China and Korea are used in this paper to investigate the East Asian summer monsoon-related precipitation variation over the past 160 years. Statistically, there is no linear correlation on a year-by-year basis between Chinese and Korean monsoon rainfall, but region-wide synchronous variation on a decadal-scale was observed. More rainfall intervals were 1860-1890, 1910-1925, and 1940-1960, and dry or even drought periods were 1890-1910, 1925-1940, and 1960-present. Reconstructions also display that the East Asian summer monsoon precipitation suddenly changed from more into less around mid-1920. These tree-ring precipitation records were also confirmed by Chinese historical dryness/wetness index and Korean historical rain gauge data.

  2. Potential modulations of pre-monsoon aerosols during El Niño: impact on Indian summer monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fadnavis, S.; Roy, Chaitri; Sabin, T. P.; Ayantika, D. C.; Ashok, K.

    2016-11-01

    The potential role of aerosol loading on the Indian summer monsoon rainfall during the El Niño years are examined using satellite-derived observations and a state of the art fully interactive aerosol-chemistry-climate model. The Aerosol Index (AI) from TOMS (1978-2005) and Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) from MISR spectroradiometer (2000-2010) indicate a higher-than-normal aerosol loading over the Indo-Gangetic plain (IGP) during the pre-monsoon season with a concurrent El Niño. Sensitivity experiments using ECHAM5-HAMMOZ climate model suggests that this enhanced loading of pre-monsoon absorbing aerosols over the Indo-Gangetic plain can reduce the drought during El Niño years by invoking the `Elevated-Heat-Pump' mechanism through an anomalous aerosol-induced warm core in the atmospheric column. This anomalous heating upshot the relative strengthening of the cross-equatorial moisture inflow associated with the monsoon and eventually reduces the severity of drought during El Niño years. The findings are subject to the usual limitations such as the uncertainties in observations, and limited number of El Niño years (during the study period).

  3. Climate change impacts on the seasonality and generation processes of floods in catchments with mixed snowmelt/rainfall regimes: projections and uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vormoor, K.; Lawrence, D.; Heistermann, M.; Bronstert, A.

    2014-06-01

    Climate change is likely to impact the seasonality and generation processes of floods in the Nordic countries, which has direct implications for flood risk assessment, design flood estimation, and hydropower production management. Using a multi-model/multi-parameter approach, we analysed the projected changes in flood seasonality and its underlying generation processes in six catchments with mixed snowmelt/rainfall regimes in Norway. We found that autumn/winter events become more frequent in all catchments considered which leads to an intensification of the current autumn/winter flood regime for the coastal catchments, a reduction of the dominance of spring/summer flood regimes in a high-mountain catchment, and a possible systematic shift in the current flood regimes from spring/summer to autumn/winter in catchments in northern and south-eastern Norway. The changes in flood regimes results from increasing event magnitudes or frequencies, or a combination of both during autumn and winter. Changes towards more dominant autumn/winter events correspond to an increasing relevance of rainfall as a flood generating process (FGP) which is most pronounced in those catchments with the largest shifts in flood seasonality. Here, rainfall replaces snowmelt as the dominant FGP. We further analysed the ensemble components in contributing to overall uncertainty in the projected changes and found that the climate projections and the methods for downscaling or bias-correction tend to be the largest contributors. The relative role of hydrological parameter uncertainty, however, is highest for those catchments showing the largest changes in flood seasonality which confirms the lack of robustness in hydrological model parameterization for simulations under transient hydrometeorological conditions.

  4. Deciphering the desiccation trend of the South Asian monsoon hydroclimate in a warming world

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krishnan, R.; Sabin, T. P.; Vellore, R.; Mujumdar, M.; Sanjay, J.; Goswami, B. N.; Hourdin, F.; Dufresne, J.-L.; Terray, P.

    2016-08-01

    Rising propensity of precipitation extremes and concomitant decline of summer-monsoon rains are amongst the most distinctive hydroclimatic signals that have emerged over South Asia since 1950s. A clear understanding of the underlying causes driving these monsoon hydroclimatic signals has remained elusive. Using a state-of-the-art global climate model with high-resolution zooming over South Asia, we demonstrate that a juxtaposition of regional land-use changes, anthropogenic-aerosol forcing and the rapid warming signal of the equatorial Indian Ocean is crucial to produce the observed monsoon weakening in recent decades. Our findings also show that this monsoonal weakening significantly enhances occurrence of localized intense precipitation events, as compared to the global-warming response. A 21st century climate projection using the same high-resolution model indicates persistent decrease of monsoonal rains and prolongation of soil drying. Critical value-additions from this study include (1) realistic simulation of the mean and long-term historical trends in the Indian monsoon rainfall (2) robust attributions of changes in moderate and heavy precipitation events over Central India (3) a 21st century projection of drying trend of the South Asian monsoon. The present findings have profound bearing on the regional water-security, which is already under severe hydrological-stress.

  5. Simulation of Asian Monsoon Seasonal Variations with Climate Model R42L9/LASG

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王在志; 吴国雄; 吴统文; 宇如聪

    2004-01-01

    The seasonal variations of the Asian monsoon were explored by applying the atmospheric general circulation model R42L9 that was developed recently at the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (LASG/IAP/CAS). The 20-yr (1979-1998) simulation was done using the prescribed20-yr monthly SST and sea-ice data as required by Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP)Ⅱ in the model. The monthly precipitation and monsoon circulations were analyzed and compared with the observations to validate the model's performance in simulating the climatological mean and seasonal variations of the Asian monsoon. The results show that the model can capture the main features of the spatial distribution and the temporal evolution of precipitation in the Indian and East Asian monsoon areas. The model also reproduced the basic patterns of monsoon circulation. However, some biases exist in this model. The simulation of the heating over the Tibetan Plateau in summer was too strong. The overestimated heating caused a stronger East Asian monsoon and a weaker Indian monsoon than the observations. In the circulation fields, the South Asia high was stronger and located over the Tibetan Plateau. The western Pacific subtropical high was extended westward, which is in accordance with the observational results when the heating over the Tibetan Plateau is stronger. Consequently, the simulated rainfall around this area and in northwest China was heavier than in observations, but in the Indian monsoon area and west Pacific the rainfall was somewhat deficient.

  6. Seasonally asymmetric transition of the Asian