WorldWideScience

Sample records for monsoon intraseasonal variability

  1. Seasonal and Intraseasonal Variability of Mesoscale Convective Systems over the South Asian Monsoon Region

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Virts, Katrina S.; Houze, Robert A.

    2016-12-01

    Seasonal and intraseasonal differences in mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) over South Asia are examined using A-Train satellites, a ground-based lightning network, and reanalysis fields. Pre-monsoon (April-May) MCSs occur primarily over Bangladesh and the eastern Bay of Bengal. During the monsoon (June-September), small MCSs occur over the Meghalaya Plateau and northeast Himalayan notch, while large and connected MCSs are most widespread over the Bay of Bengal. Monsoon MCSs produce less lightning and exhibit more extensive stratiform and anvil reflectivity structures in CloudSat observations than do pre-monsoon MCSs. During the monsoon season, Bay of Bengal and Meghalaya Plateau MCSs vary with the 30-60 day northward-propagating intraseasonal oscillation, while northeast Himalayan notch MCSs are associated with weak large-scale anomalies but locally enhanced CAPE. During intraseasonal active periods, a zone of enhanced large and connected MCSs, precipitation, and lightning extends from the northeastern Arabian Sea southeast over India and the Bay of Bengal, flanked by suppressed anomalies. Spatial variability is observed within this enhancement zone: lightning is most enhanced where MCSs are less enhanced, and vice versa. Reanalysis composites indicate that Bay of Bengal MCSs are associated with monsoon depressions, which are frequent during active monsoon periods, while Meghalaya Plateau MCSs are most frequent at the end of break periods, as anomalous southwesterly winds strengthen moist advection toward the terrain. Over both regions, MCSs exhibit more extensive stratiform and anvil regions and less lightning when the large-scale environment is moister, and vice versa.

  2. The role of potential vorticity anomalies in the Somali Jet on Indian Summer Monsoon Intraseasonal Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rai, P.; Joshi, M.; Dimri, A. P.; Turner, A. G.

    2017-08-01

    The climate of the Indian subcontinent is dominated by rainfall arising from the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) during June to September. Intraseasonal variability during the monsoon is characterized by periods of heavy rainfall interspersed by drier periods, known as active and break events respectively. Understanding and predicting such events is of vital importance for forecasting human impacts such as water resources. The Somali Jet is a key regional feature of the monsoon circulation. In the present study, we find that the spatial structure of Somali Jet potential vorticity (PV) anomalies varies considerably during active and break periods. Analysis of these anomalies shows a mechanism whereby sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies propagate north/northwestwards through the Arabian Sea, caused by a positive feedback loop joining anomalies in SST, convection, modification of PV by diabatic heating and mixing in the atmospheric boundary layer, wind-stress curl, and ocean upwelling processes. The feedback mechanism is consistent with observed variability in the coupled ocean-atmosphere system on timescales of approximately 20 days. This research suggests that better understanding and prediction of monsoon intraseasonal variability in the South Asian monsoon may be gained by analysis of the day-to-day dynamical evolution of PV in the Somali Jet.

  3. Intraseasonal variability of the Indian summer monsoon: wet and dry events in COSMO-CLM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Befort, Daniel J.; Leckebusch, G. C.; Cubasch, U.

    2016-10-01

    This study aims to validate the widely used regional climate model COSMO-CLM driven by ERA-Interim reanalysis data with a spatial resolution of 55 km with respect to observed features of the intraseasonal variability of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) during the period 1979 until 2011. One of these features is the northward propagation of the ISM intraseasonal oscillations. We find, that the temporal evolution between model and observation is in good agreement, while less agreement with respect to the strength is found. Furthermore, the model's capability to simulate observed dry and wet events on a weekly time-scale is investigated using the standardized precipitation index. In general, the model is capable to simulate these events with a similar magnitude at the same time. Observational based analyses show, that the coupling between atmospheric circulation anomalies and rainfall anomalies over India on the intraseasonal time scale is well represented by the model. The most important circulation anomalies for dry events are a lower tropospheric anti-cyclonic vortex over India and partly an upper tropospheric cyclonic vortex over the Pakistan region and vice versa for wet events. The model shows a slightly higher ability to simulate dry compared to wet events. Overall, this study shows that the current configuration of COSMO-CLM is able to simulate the key features of the intraseasonal variability of the Indian summer monsoon. Being aware of its limitation, COSMO-CLM is suitable to investigate possible changes of the intraseasonal variability of ISM under changed climate conditions in the past or in the future.

  4. Intraseasonal Variability of the Indian Summer Monsoon in the Regional Climate Model COSMO-CLM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Befort, Daniel J.; Leckebusch, Gregor C.; Cubasch, Ulrich

    2015-04-01

    The regional climate model COSMO-CLM driven by ERA-Interim reanalysis data with a spatial resolution of 55km is used to simulate observed features of the intraseasonal variability of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) during the period 1979 until 2011. One of these features is the northward propagation of the monsoon intraseasonal oscillations. We find, that the temporal evolution of this oscillation between model and observation is in good agreement, but the strength is less well simulated. Additionally, the models capability to simulate observed dry and wet events on a weekly time scale is investigated using the standardized precipitation index. In general, the model is capable to simulate these events with a similar magnitude at the same time, but we find a higher ability for dry compared to wet events. We hypothesize this is related to differences in the atmospheric circulation during dry and wet events. Analyses show, that dry events are characterized by a cyclonic vortex over India as well as an anti-cyclonic vortex over Pakistan region in 500hPa, whereas wet events are characterized by an anti-cyclonic vortex over India, only. It is found that COSMO-CLM has a higher ability to simulate the observed anomalous circulation over Pakistan region compared to observed anomalous circulation patterns over India. Overall, this study shows that the current configuration of COSMO-CLM is able to simulate key features of the intraseasonal variability of the Indian summer monsoon. Thus, under consideration of its limitations, COSMO-CLM is suitable to investigate possible changes of the intraseasonal variability of ISM under changed climate conditions.

  5. Intraseasonal Variability of Summer Monsoon Rainfall and Droughts over Central India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shrivastava, Sourabh; Kar, Sarat C.; Sharma, Anu Rani

    2017-02-01

    Rainfall over Madhya Pradesh (MP) in central India has large intra-seasonal variability causing droughts and floods in many years. In this study, rainfall variability in daily and monthly scale over central India has been examined using observed data. Consistency among various datasets such as rainfall, surface temperature, soil moisture and evapotranspiration has been examined. These parameters are from various different sources and critical for drought monitoring and prediction. It is found that during weak phases of monsoon, central India receives deficit rainfall with weaker monsoon circulation. This phase is characterized by an anticyclonic circulation at 850 hPa centered on MP. The EOF analysis of daily rainfall suggests that the two leading modes explain about 23-24% of rainfall variability in intraseasonal timescale. These two modes represent drought/flood conditions over MP. Relationship of weak phases of rainfall over central India with real-time multivariate (RMM) indices of Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) has been examined. It is found that RMM-6, RMM-7, RMM-1 and RMM-2 describe the weak monsoon conditions over central India. However, frequency of drought occurrence over MP is more during RMM-7 phase. Surface temperature increases by about 0.5°-1° during weak phases of rainfall over this region. Soil moisture and evapotranspiration gradually reduce when rainfall reduces over the study region. Soil moisture and evapotranspiration anomalies have positive pattern during good rainfall events over central India and gradually reduce and become negative anomalies during weak phases.

  6. Moisture transport and intraseasonal variability in the South America monsoon system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carvalho, Leila M.V. [University of California Santa Barbara, Department of Geography, Santa Barbara, CA (United States); University of Sao Paulo, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Sao Paulo (Brazil); University of California Santa Barbara, Institute for Computational Earth System Sciences, Santa Barbara, CA (United States); Silva, Ana E.; Rocha, Humberto R. [University of Sao Paulo, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Sao Paulo (Brazil); Jones, Charles [University of California Santa Barbara, Institute for Computational Earth System Sciences, Santa Barbara, CA (United States); Liebmann, Brant [CIRES Climate Diagnostics Center, Boulder, CO (United States); Silva Dias, Pedro L. [University of Sao Paulo, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Sao Paulo (Brazil); National Laboratory for Scientific Computing, Petropolis (Brazil)

    2011-05-15

    This paper examines moisture transport on intraseasonal timescales over the continent and over the South Atlantic convergence zone (SACZ) during the South America (SA) summer monsoon. Combined Empirical Orthogonal Function analysis (EOFc) of Global Precipitation Climatology Project pentad precipitation, specific humidity, air temperature, zonal and meridional winds at 850 hPa (NCEP/NCAR reanalysis) are performed to identify the large-scale variability of the South America monsoon system and the SACZ. The first EOFc was used as a large-scale index for the South American monsoon (LISAM), whereas the second EOFc characterized the SACZ. LISAM (SACZ) index showed spectral variance on 30-90 (15-20) days and were both band filtered (10-100 days). Intraseasonal wet anomalies were defined when LISAM and SACZ anomalies were above the 75th percentile of their respective distribution. LISAM and SACZ wet events were examined independently of each other and when they occur simultaneously. LISAM wet events were observed with the amplification of wave activity in the Northern Hemisphere and the enhancement of northwesterly cross-equatorial moisture transport over tropical continental SA. Enhanced SACZ was observed with moisture transport from the extratropics of the Southern Hemisphere. Simultaneous LISAM and SACZ wet events are associated with cross-equatorial moisture transport along with moisture transport from Subtropical Southwestern Atlantic. (orig.)

  7. Predictability experiments for the Asian summer monsoon impact of SST anomalies on interannual and intraseasonal variability

    CERN Document Server

    Molteni, F; Ferranti, L; Slingo, J M

    2003-01-01

    The effects of SST anomalies on the interannual and intraseasonal variability of the Asian summer monsoon have been studied by multivariate statistical analyses of 850-hPa wind and rainfall fields simulated in a set of ensemble integrations of the ECMWF atmospheric GCM, referred to as the PRISM experiments. The simulations used observed SSTs (PRISM-O), covering 9 years characterised by large variations of the ENSO phenomenon in the 1980's and the early 1990's. A parallel set of simulations was also performed with climatological SSTs (PRISM-C), thus enabling the influence of SST forcing on the modes of interannual and intraseasonal variability to be investigated. As in observations, the model's interannual variability is dominated by a zonally-oriented mode which describes the north-south movement of the tropical convergence zone (TCZ). This mode appears to be independent of SST forcing and its robustness between the PRISM-O and PRISM-C simulations suggests that it is driven by internal atmospheric dynamics. O...

  8. Intra-seasonal variability of atmospheric CO2 concentrations over India during summer monsoons

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ravi Kumar, K.; Valsala, Vinu; Tiwari, Yogesh K.; Revadekar, J. V.; Pillai, Prasanth; Chakraborty, Supriyo; Murtugudde, Raghu

    2016-10-01

    In a study based on a data assimilation product of the terrestrial biospheric fluxes of CO2 over India, the subcontinent was hypothesized to be an anomalous source (sink) of CO2 during the active (break) spells of rain in the summer monsoon from June to September (Valsala et al., 2013). We test this hypothesis here by investigating intraseasonal variability in the atmospheric CO2 concentrations over India by utilizing a combination of ground-based and satellite observations and model outputs. The results show that the atmospheric CO2 concentration also varies in synchrony with the active and break spells of rainfall with amplitude of ±2 ppm which is above the instrumental uncertainty of the present day techniques of atmospheric CO2 measurements. The result is also consistent with the signs of the Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE) flux anomalies estimated in our earlier work. The study thus offers the first observational affirmation of the above hypothesis although the data gap in the satellite measurements during monsoon season and the limited ground-based stations over India still leaves some uncertainty in the robust assertion of the hypothesis. The study highlights the need to capture these subtle variabilities and their responses to climate variability and change since it has implications for inverse estimates of terrestrial CO2 fluxes.

  9. The impact of monsoon intraseasonal variability on renewable power generation in India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunning, C. M.; Turner, A. G.; Brayshaw, D. J.

    2015-06-01

    India is increasingly investing in renewable technology to meet rising energy demands, with hydropower and other renewables comprising one-third of current installed capacity. Installed wind-power is projected to increase 5-fold by 2035 (to nearly 100GW) under the International Energy Agency's New Policies scenario. However, renewable electricity generation is dependent upon the prevailing meteorology, which is strongly influenced by monsoon variability. Prosperity and widespread electrification are increasing the demand for air conditioning, especially during the warm summer. This study uses multi-decadal observations and meteorological reanalysis data to assess the impact of intraseasonal monsoon variability on the balance of electricity supply from wind-power and temperature-related demand in India. Active monsoon phases are characterized by vigorous convection and heavy rainfall over central India. This results in lower temperatures giving lower cooling energy demand, while strong westerly winds yield high wind-power output. In contrast, monsoon breaks are characterized by suppressed precipitation, with higher temperatures and hence greater demand for cooling, and lower wind-power output across much of India. The opposing relationship between wind-power supply and cooling demand during active phases (low demand, high supply) and breaks (high demand, low supply) suggests that monsoon variability will tend to exacerbate fluctuations in the so-called demand-net-wind (i.e., electrical demand that must be supplied from non-wind sources). This study may have important implications for the design of power systems and for investment decisions in conventional schedulable generation facilities (such as coal and gas) that are used to maintain the supply/demand balance. In particular, if it is assumed (as is common) that the generated wind-power operates as a price-taker (i.e., wind farm operators always wish to sell their power, irrespective of price) then investors in

  10. Understanding the Dynamic and Thermodynamic Causes of Historical Trends in the Intraseasonal Variability of the South Asian Summer Monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, D.; Horton, D. E.; Diffenbaugh, N. S.

    2014-12-01

    The Indian Summer Monsoon directly affects the lives of over 1/6th of the world's population, being critical for agriculture (>50% of the agricultural lands are still rainfed) and water availability in the subcontinent. The summer monsoon is characterized by a dominant 30-60 day mode of intraseasonal variability causing the occurrence of wet and dry spells over a substantial portion of India during the peak-monsoon months (July-August). We use a 1°x1° gridded rainfall dataset (1951-2011) from the Indian Meteorological Department to quantify changes in the mean and intraseasonal variability of daily summer monsoon rainfall across India. Using a non-parametric statistical methodology to account for temporal correlation in the time-series, we find a statistically significant decreasing trend in rainfall and increasing trend in variability in many regions, and changes in the characteristics of wet and dry spells.Using geopotential heights from the NCEP reanalysis dataset, we apply the Self-Organizing Maps (SOMs) approach (cluster analysis) to define typical upper (200mb) and lower-level (850mb) atmospheric patterns associated with extreme wet and dry conditions in the different sub-regions within India. We identify the extreme wet and dry spell patterns from the precipitation composites associated with the SOM patterns. Next, we link the contribution of the changing frequency of occurrence of the associated atmospheric patterns and increasing moisture availability in response to atmospheric warming to observed trends in these extremes. Lastly, we compare the changes in the frequency of occurrence of these atmospheric patterns in the historical and pre-industrial simulations from a single GCM to examine the influence of global warming on these extremes. Understanding the causes of these observed changes in wet and dry extremes during the monsoon season and responses to increasing global warming are relevant for managing climate-related risks, with particular relevance

  11. Intraseasonal to interannual variability of summer monsoon rainfall and its influence on the Agricultural corps in mountainous Kashmir

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hussain, Z.; Saeed, S.

    2012-04-01

    By using high resolution APHRODITE precipitation and meteorological station data (1961-2007) the present study examines the intraseasonal to interannual variability of the monsoon rainfall over mountainous Kashmir and its influence on the agricultural crops such as Maiz and Wheat. It is found that an intraseasonal to interannual variability of the monsoon rainfall can severely affect the crop production in the hilly areas of Kashmir. We found an increasing trend in the extreme precipitation events over Kashmir and adjacent areas in the recent years. The associated crop production shows significant decreasing trend especially over the hilly areas in Kashmir. The enhanced rainfall can result in the soil erosion that impose a major threat to sustainable agriculture in the mountainous areas of Kashmir. The heavy rainfall associated with the orographic uplifitng removes the uppermost fertile layer of soil, depleting fertility and leaving the soil in poor physical condition. This further causes severe deficiency of most important nutrients required for plant growth and crop yield. We further analysed the IPCC AR4 ECHAM5/MPIOM climate model simulations to examine the future interannual variability of monsoon rainfall over Kashmir and adjoining areas. In the following we analysed the transient run with a 1% per year increase in CO2 until reaching double concentrations and held constant thereafter. We found enhanced interannual variability of the summer monsoon rainfall (July-August) with increasing drought like conditions over Kashmir and adjoining northern parts of Pakistan in future climate. The enhanced interannual variability of precipitation in future could further affect severely growth of various agricultural crops in mountainous parts of Kashmir.

  12. Revised cloud processes to improve the mean and intraseasonal variability of Indian summer monsoon in climate forecast system: Part 1

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abhik, S.; Krishna, R. P. M.; Mahakur, M.; Ganai, Malay; Mukhopadhyay, P.; Dudhia, J.

    2017-06-01

    The National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System (CFS) is being used for operational monsoon prediction over the Indian region. Recent studies indicate that the moist convective process in CFS is one of the major sources of uncertainty in monsoon predictions. In this study, the existing simple cloud microphysics of CFS is replaced by the six-class Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) single moment (WSM6) microphysical scheme. Additionally, a revised convective parameterization is employed to improve the performance of the model in simulating the boreal summer mean climate and intraseasonal variability over the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) region. The revised version of the model (CFSCR) exhibits a potential to improve shortcomings in the seasonal mean precipitation distribution relative to the standard CFS (CTRL), especially over the ISM region. Consistently, notable improvements are also evident in other observed ISM characteristics. These improvements are found to be associated with a better simulation of spatial and vertical distributions of cloud hydrometeors in CFSCR. A reasonable representation of the subgrid-scale convective parameterization along with cloud hydrometeors helps to improve the convective and large-scale precipitation distribution in the model. As a consequence, the simulated low-frequency boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) exhibits realistic propagation and the observed northwest-southeast rainband is well reproduced in CFSCR. Additionally, both the high and low-frequency BSISOs are better captured in CFSCR. The improvement of low and high-frequency BSISOs in CFSCR is shown to be related to a realistic phase relationship of clouds.type="synopsis">type="main">Plain Language SummaryThis study attempts to demonstrate the impact of better representation of cloud processes on simulating the mean and intraseasonal variability of Indian summer monsoon in a revised version of CFSv2 called CFSCR. The CFSCR shows

  13. Energetics of lower tropospheric ultra-long waves: A key to intra-seasonal variability of Indian monsoon

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    S M Bawiskar; M D Chipade; P V Puranik

    2009-04-01

    Analysis of fifty four (1951-2004)years of daily energetics of zonal waves derived from NCEP/ NCAR wind ( and data and daily rainfall received over the Indian landmass (real time data) during southwest monsoon season (1 June-30 September)indicate that energetics (momentum transport and kinetic energy)of lower tropospheric ultra-long waves (waves 1 and 2)of low latitudes hold a key to intra-seasonal variability of monsoon rainfall over India. Correlation coefficient between climatology of daily (122 days)energetics of ultra-long waves and climatology of daily rainfall over Indian landmass is 0.9.The relation is not only significant but also has a predictive potential.The normalised plot of both the series clearly indicates that the response period of rainfall to the energetics is of 5-10 days during the onset phase and 4-7 days during the withdrawal phase of monsoon over India.During the established phase of monsoon, both the series move hand-in-hand.Normalised plot of energetics of ultra-long waves and rainfall for individual year do not show marked deviation with respect to climatology.These results are first of its kind and are useful for the short range forecast of rainfall over India.

  14. Intraseasonal Variability of the Summer Monsoon over the North Indian Ocean as Revealed by the BOBMEX and ARMEX Field Programs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rao, P. Sanjeeva; Sikka, D. R.

    2005-08-01

    During the summer monsoon season over India a range of intraseasonal modulations of the monsoon rains occur due to genesis of weather disturbances over the Bay of Bengal (BOB) and the east Arabian Sea. The amplitudes of the fluctuations in the surface state of the ocean (sea-surface temperature and salinity) and atmosphere are quite large due to these monsoonal modulations on the intraseasonal scale as shown by the data collected during the field programs under Bay of Bengal Monsoon Experiment (BOBMEX) and Arabian Sea Monsoon Experiments (ARMEX). The focus of BOBMEX was to understand the role of ocean-atmospheric processes in organizing convection over the BOB on intra-seasonal scale. ARMEX-I was aimed at understanding the coupled processes in the development of deep convection off the West Coast of India. ARMEX-II was focused on the formation of the mini-warm pool across the southeast Arabian Sea in April-May and its role in the abrupt onset of the monsoon along the Southwest Coast of India and its further progress along the West Coast of India. The paper attempts to integrate the results of the observational studies and brings out an important finding that atmospheric instability is prominently responsible for convective organization whereas the upper ocean parameters regulate the episodes of the intraseasonal oscillations.

  15. Evaluation of mean and intraseasonal variability of Indian summer monsoon simulation in ECHAM5: identification of possible source of bias

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abhik, S.; Mukhopadhyay, P.; Goswami, B. N.

    2014-07-01

    The performance of ECHAM5 atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) is evaluated to simulate the seasonal mean and intraseasonal variability of Indian summer monsoon (ISM). The model is simulated at two different vertical resolutions, with 19 and 31 levels (L19 and L31, respectively), using observed monthly mean sea surface temperature and compared with the observation. The analyses examine the biases present in the internal dynamics of the model in simulating the mean monsoon and the evolution of the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) and attempts to unveil the reason behind them. The model reasonably simulates the seasonal mean-state of the atmosphere during ISM. However, some notable discrepancies are found in the simulated summer mean moisture and rainfall distribution. Both the vertical resolutions, overestimate the seasonal mean precipitation over the oceanic regions, but underestimate the precipitation over the Indian landmass. The performance of the model improves with the increment of the vertical resolution. The AGCM reasonably simulates some salient features of BSISO, but fails to show the eastward propagation of the convection across the Maritime Continent in L19 simulation. The propagation across the Maritime Continent and tilted rainband structure improve as one moves from L19 to L31. The model unlikely shows prominent westward propagation that originates over the tropical western Pacific region. L31 also produces some of the observed characteristics of the northward propagating BSISOs. However, the northward propagating convection becomes stationary in phase 5-7. The simulation of shallow diabatic heating structure and the heavy rainfall activity over the Bay of Bengal indicate the abundance of the premature convection-generated precipitation events in the model. It is found that the moist physics is responsible for the poor simulation of the northward propagating convection anomalies.

  16. Teleconnections associated with Northern Hemisphere summer monsoon intraseasonal oscillation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moon, Ja-Yeon; Wang, Bin; Ha, Kyung-Ja; Lee, June-Yi

    2013-06-01

    The boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) has strong convective activity centers in Indian (I), Western North Pacific (WNP), and North American (NA) summer monsoon (SM) regions. The present study attempts to reveal BSISO teleconnection patterns associated with these dominant intraseasonal variability centers. During the active phase of ISM, a zonally elongated band of enhanced convection extends from India via the Bay of Bengal and Philippine Sea to tropical central Pacific with suppressed convection over the eastern Pacific near Mexico. The corresponding extratropical circulation anomalies occur along the waveguides generated by the North African-Asian jet and North Atlantic-North European jet. When the tropical convection strengthens over the WNPSM sector, a distinct great circle-like Rossby wave train emanates from the WNP to the western coast of United States (US) with an eastward shift of enhanced meridional circulation. In the active phase of NASM, large anticyclonic anomalies anchor over the western coast of US and eastern Canada and the global teleconnection pattern is similar to that during a break phase of the ISM. Examination of the evolution of the BSISO teleconnection reveals quasi-stationary patterns with preferred centers of teleconnection located at Europe, Russia, central Asia, East Asia, western US, and eastern US and Canada, respectively. Most centers are embedded in the waveguide along the westerly jet stream, but the centers at Europe and Russia occur to the north of the jet-induced waveguide. Eastward propagation of the ISO teleconnection is evident over the Pacific-North America sector. The rainfall anomalies over the elongated band near the monsoon domain over the Indo-western Pacific sector have an opposite tendency with that over the central and southern China, Mexico and southern US, providing a source of intraseasonal predictability to extratropical regions. The BSISO teleconnection along and to the north of the subtropical jet

  17. Intraseasonal variability of the subsurface temperature observed in the South China Sea (SCS)

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2002-01-01

    Using Morlet wavelet transform we investigated the intraseasonal variability of the subsurface temperature in the SCS by analyzing ATLAS mooring data obtained during the South China Sea Monsoon Experiment (SCSMEX). It is found for the first time that subsurface temperature in the SCS exists intraseasonal variability, particularly in winter. The strongest intraseasonal variability ranges from 50 to 100 m with its maximum amplitude about 1.0--2.0℃. The subsurface temperature intraseasonal variability in the SCS is primarily induced by local wind stress curl via adjusting the vertical displacement of thermocline. It reveals the important characteristic of intraseasonal variations in the SCS upper ocean vertically.

  18. Intra-seasonal oscillations associated with Indian Ocean warm pool and summer monsoon rainfall and their inter-annual variability

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Muraleedharan, P.M.; Nisha, P.G.; Sathe, P.V.; Sivakumar, K.U.

    is found to be propagating northward and their link to the Indian summer monsoon rainfall has been well documented (Yasunari, 1979; Krishnamurti and Subramanium, 1982; Gautier and Di Julio, 1990) Western equatorial Pacific and eastern equatorial Indian... been reported by Yasunary (1979, 1980) using satellite mosaic pictures of cloudiness over South Asia. Krishnamurty and Subramanium (1982) documented meridional propagation of a train of troughs and ridges from the equator to about 30 N over the Indian...

  19. Understanding and prediction of Monsoon Intraseasonal Oscillation (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, B.

    2013-12-01

    Compared with the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), which prevails in boreal winter, the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) has a more complex propagation pattern and spatial- temporal evolution, with prominent northward propagation and a shift of the variability center from the equatorial region to the Asian-western North Pacific and North American monsoon regions. Understanding the origin and perpetuation of BSISO has eluded scientists for decades. Improved understanding of the physical mechanisms is a prerequisite for improvement of BSISO prediction. An account of essential aspects of BSISO is presented, including (a) what sustains it or why a new rainy phase is initiated in the western equatorial Indian Ocean, (b) How a titled BSISO rain band is formed, (c) why its rain bands move northeastward in the Asian-Pacific monsoon regions, (d) how its interaction with mixed layer-ocean can play an important role in its dynamics, and (e) how it interacts with mid-latitude wave trains. Practical useful BSISO indices are proposed for monitoring and prediction purpose based on multivariate empirical orthogonal function (MV-EOF) analysis of daily anomalies of outgoing longwave radiation and zonal wind at 850 hPa in the region 10oS-40oN, 40o-160oE, for the extended boreal summer (May-October) season over the 30-year period 1981-2010. The prediction skill and predictability of the BSISO are also examined in terms of predictable modes identified form observation and multi-model ensemble (MME) hindcasts obtained from ten coupled models participated in the IntraSeasonal Variability Hindcast Experiment (ISVHE) project. It is noted that the first two MV-EOF modes are predictable using the coupled models and the bivariate temporal correlation coefficient skill for the two modes reaches 0.5 at 22-day forecast lead for the best model but at 5-day for the worst model. As a phenomenon bridging synoptic weather and seasonal variability, BSISO predictability is strongly

  20. Boreal summer intraseasonal oscillations and seasonal Indian monsoon prediction in DEMETER coupled models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Joseph, Susmitha; Sahai, A.K.; Goswami, B.N. [Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Climate and Global Modeling Division, Pune (India)

    2010-09-15

    Even though multi-model prediction systems may have better skill in predicting the interannual variability (IAV) of Indian summer monsoon (ISM), the overall performance of the system is limited by the skill of individual models (single model ensembles). The DEMETER project aimed at seasonal-to-interannual prediction is not an exception to this case. The reasons for the poor skill of the DEMETER individual models in predicting the IAV of monsoon is examined in the context of the influence of external and internal components and the interaction between intraseasonal variability (ISV) and IAV. Recently it has been shown that the ISV influences the IAV through very long breaks (VLBs; breaks with duration of more than 10 days) by generating droughts. Further, all VLBs are associated with an eastward propagating Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) in the equatorial region, facilitated by air-sea interaction on intraseasonal timescales. This VLB-drought-MJO relationship is analyzed here in detail in the DEMETER models. Analyses indicate that the VLB-drought relationship is poorly captured by almost all the models. VLBs in observations are generated through air-sea interaction on intraseasonal time scale and the models' inability to simulate VLB-drought relationship is shown to be linked to the models' inability to represent the air-sea interaction on intraseasonal time scale. Identification of this particular deficiency of the models provides a direction for improvement of the model for monsoon prediction. (orig.)

  1. Impact of MJO on the intraseasonal variation of summer monsoon rainfall over India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pai, D. S.; Bhate, Jyoti; Sreejith, O. P.; Hatwar, H. R.

    2011-01-01

    The summer monsoon rainfall over India exhibits strong intraseasonal variability. Earlier studies have identified Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) as one of the most influencing factors of the intraseasonal variability of the monsoon rainfall. In this study, using India Meteorological Department (IMD) high resolution daily gridded rainfall data and Wheeler-Hendon MJO indices, the intra-seasonal variation of daily rainfall distribution over India associated with various Phases of eastward propagating MJO life cycle was examined to understand the mechanism linking the MJO to the intraseasonal variability. During MJO Phases of 1 and 2, formation of MJO associated positive convective anomaly over the equatorial Indian Ocean activated the oceanic tropical convergence zone (OTCZ) and the resultant changes in the monsoon circulation caused break monsoon type rainfall distribution. Associated with this, negative convective anomalies over monsoon trough zone region extended eastwards to date line indicating weaker than normal northern hemisphere inter tropical convergence zone (ITCZ). The positive convective anomalies over OTCZ and negative convective anomalies over ITCZ formed a dipole like pattern. Subsequently, as the MJO propagated eastwards to west equatorial Pacific through the maritime continent, a gradual northward shift of the OTCZ was observed and negative convective anomalies started appearing over equatorial Indian Ocean. During Phase 4, while the eastwards propagating MJO linked positive convective anomalies activated the eastern part of the ITCZ, the northward propagating OTCZ merged with monsoon trough (western part of the ITCZ) and induced positive convective anomalies over the region. During Phases 5 and 6, the dipole pattern in convective anomalies was reversed compared to that during Phases 1 and 2. This resulted active monsoon type rainfall distribution over India. During the subsequent Phases (7 and 8), the convective and lower tropospheric anomaly

  2. Impact of MJO on the intraseasonal variation of summer monsoon rainfall over India

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pai, D.S.; Sreejith, O.P.; Hatwar, H.R. [India Meteorological Department, Pune (India); Bhate, Jyoti [National Atmospheric Research Laboratory, Gadnki (India)

    2011-01-15

    The summer monsoon rainfall over India exhibits strong intraseasonal variability. Earlier studies have identified Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) as one of the most influencing factors of the intraseasonal variability of the monsoon rainfall. In this study, using India Meteorological Department (IMD) high resolution daily gridded rainfall data and Wheeler-Hendon MJO indices, the intra-seasonal variation of daily rainfall distribution over India associated with various Phases of eastward propagating MJO life cycle was examined to understand the mechanism linking the MJO to the intraseasonal variability. During MJO Phases of 1 and 2, formation of MJO associated positive convective anomaly over the equatorial Indian Ocean activated the oceanic tropical convergence zone (OTCZ) and the resultant changes in the monsoon circulation caused break monsoon type rainfall distribution. Associated with this, negative convective anomalies over monsoon trough zone region extended eastwards to date line indicating weaker than normal northern hemisphere inter tropical convergence zone (ITCZ). The positive convective anomalies over OTCZ and negative convective anomalies over ITCZ formed a dipole like pattern. Subsequently, as the MJO propagated eastwards to west equatorial Pacific through the maritime continent, a gradual northward shift of the OTCZ was observed and negative convective anomalies started appearing over equatorial Indian Ocean. During Phase 4, while the eastwards propagating MJO linked positive convective anomalies activated the eastern part of the ITCZ, the northward propagating OTCZ merged with monsoon trough (western part of the ITCZ) and induced positive convective anomalies over the region. During Phases 5 and 6, the dipole pattern in convective anomalies was reversed compared to that during Phases 1 and 2. This resulted active monsoon type rainfall distribution over India. During the subsequent Phases (7 and 8), the convective and lower tropospheric anomaly

  3. Investigation of summer monsoon rainfall variability in Pakistan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hussain, Mian Sabir; Lee, Seungho

    2016-08-01

    This study analyzes the inter-annual and intra-seasonal rainfall variability in Pakistan using daily rainfall data during the summer monsoon season (June to September) recorded from 1980 to 2014. The variability in inter-annual monsoon rainfall ranges from 20 % in northeastern regions to 65 % in southwestern regions of Pakistan. The analysis reveals that the transition of the negative and positive anomalies was not uniform in the investigated dataset. In order to acquire broad observations of the intra-seasonal variability, an objective criterion, the pre-active period, active period and post-active periods of the summer monsoon rainfall have demarcated. The analysis also reveals that the rainfall in June has no significant contribution to the increase in intra-seasonal rainfall in Pakistan. The rainfall has, however, been enhanced in the summer monsoon in August. The rainfall of September demonstrates a sharp decrease, resulting in a high variability in the summer monsoon season. A detailed examination of the intra-seasonal rainfall also reveals frequent amplitude from late July to early August. The daily normal rainfall fluctuates significantly with its maximum in the Murree hills and its minimum in the northwestern Baluchistan.

  4. Impacts of intraseasonal oscillation on the onset and interannual variation of the Indian summer monsoon

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    QI YanJun; ZHANG RenHe; LI Tim; WEN Min

    2009-01-01

    The role of the intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) on the seasonal and interannual variations of the Indian summer monsoon is investigated based on the analysis of observational data. It is shown that the ISO significantly contributes to the establishment of low-level westerlies during the monsoon onset and developing periods. The effect of the ISO on the annual cycle of the monsoon is through nonlinear eddy momentum transport. On the interannual timescale, the Indian summer monsoon rainfall exhibits a significant out-of-phase relationship with the ISO intensity over the Indian monsoon region. In strong ISO years it appears the weak monsoon when there is an abnormal high over the India subcontinent in the lower troposphere. In weak ISO years there exists an abnormal low and the strong monsoon ap-pears.

  5. Evaluation of NCEP TIGGE short-range forecast for Indian summer monsoon intraseasonal oscillation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tirkey, Snehlata; Mukhopadhyay, P.

    2017-08-01

    This study focuses on the short-range prediction of Monsoon Intraseasonal Oscillations (MISOs) using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction(NCEP) Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) data from The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) archive. The Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR), which plays an important role in the socio-economic growth of the country, is highly variable and is mostly governed by the MISOs. In addition to this, deterministic forecasts of ISMR are not very reliable. Hence, a probabilistic approach at daily scale is required. Keeping this in mind, the present analysis is done by using daily forecast data for up to 7-day lead time and compared with observations. The analysis shows that the ensemble forecast well captures the variability as compared to observations even up to 7 days. The spatial characteristics and the northward propagation of MISO are observed thoroughly in the EPS. The evolution of dynamical and thermodynamical parameters such as specific humidity, moist static energy, moisture divergence, and vorticity is also captured well but show deviation from the observation from 96 h lead time onwards. The tropospheric temperature forecast captures the observed gradient but with certain bias in magnitude whereas the wind shear is simulated quite well both in pattern and magnitude. These analyses bring out the biases in TIGGE EPS forecast and also point out the possible moist processes which needs to be improved.

  6. West African monsoon intraseasonal activity and its daily precipitation indices in regional climate models: diagnostics and challenges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poan, E. D.; Gachon, P.; Dueymes, G.; Diaconescu, E.; Laprise, R.; Seidou Sanda, I.

    2016-11-01

    The West African monsoon intraseasonal variability has huge socio-economic impacts on local populations but understanding and predicting it still remains a challenge for the weather prediction and climate scientific community. This paper analyses an ensemble of simulations from six regional climate models (RCMs) taking part in the coordinated regional downscaling experiment, the ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalysis (ERAI) and three satellite-based and observationally-constrained daily precipitation datasets, to assess the performance of the RCMs with regard to the intraseasonal variability. A joint analysis of seasonal-mean precipitation and the total column water vapor (also called precipitable water— PW) suggests the existence of important links at different timescales between these two variables over the Sahel and highlights the relevance of using PW to follow the monsoon seasonal cycle. RCMs that fail to represent the seasonal-mean position and amplitude of the meridional gradient of PW show the largest discrepancies with respect to seasonal-mean observed precipitation. For both ERAI and RCMs, spectral decompositions of daily PW as well as rainfall show an overestimation of low-frequency activity (at timescales longer than 10 days) at the expense of the synoptic (timescales shorter than 10 days) activity. Consequently, the effects of the African Easterly Waves and the associated mesoscale convective systems are substantially underestimated, especially over continental regions. Finally, the study investigates the skill of the models with respect to hydro-climatic indices related to the occurrence, intensity and frequency of precipitation events at the intraseasonal scale. Although most of these indices are generally better reproduced with RCMs than reanalysis products, this study indicates that RCMs still need to be improved (especially with respect to their subgrid-scale parameterization schemes) to be able to reproduce the intraseasonal variance spectrum adequately.

  7. Surface fluxes and tropical intraseasonal variability: a reassessment

    CERN Document Server

    Sobel, Adam H; Bellon, Gilles; Frierson, Dargan M

    2008-01-01

    The authors argue for the hypothesis that interactive feedbacks involving surface enthalpy fluxes are important to the dynamics of tropical intraseasonal variability. These include cloud-radiative feedbacks as well as surface turbulent flux feedbacks; the former effectively act to transport enthalpy from the ocean to the atmosphere, as do the latter. Evidence in favor of this hypothesis includes the observed spatial distribution of intraseasonal variance in precipitation and outgoing longwave radiation, the observed relationship between intraseasonal latent heat flux and precipitation anomalies in regions where intraseasonal variability is strong, and sensitivity experiments performed with a small number of general circulation and idealized models. The authors argue that it would be useful to assess the importance of surface fluxes to intraseasonal variability in a larger number of comprehensive numerical models. Such an assessment could provide insight into the relevance of interactive surface fluxes to real...

  8. Observed and Forecasted Intraseasonal Activity of Southwest Monsoon Rainfall over India During 2010, 2011 and 2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pattanaik, D. R.; Rathore, L. S.; Kumar, Arun

    2013-12-01

    The monsoon seasons of 2010 and 2011, with almost identical seasonal total rainfall over India from June to September, are associated with slightly different patterns of intraseasonal rainfall fluctuations. Similarly, the year 2012, with relatively less rainfall compared to 2010 and 2011, also witnessed different intraseasonal rainfall fluctuations, leading to drought-like situations over some parts of the country. The present article discusses the forecasting aspect of monsoon activity over India during these 3 years on an extended range time scale (up to 3 weeks) by using the multimodel ensemble (MME), based on operational coupled model outputs from the ECMWF monthly forecasting system and the NCEP's Climate Forecast System (CFS). The average correlation coefficient (CC) of weekly observed all-India rainfall (AIR) and the corresponding MME forecast AIR is found to be significant, above the 98 % level up to 2 weeks (up to 18 days) with a slight positive CC for the week 3 (days 19-25) forecast. However, like the variation of observed intraseasonal rainfall fluctuations during 2010, 2011 and 2012 monsoon seasons, the MME forecast skills of weekly AIR are also found to be different from one another, with the 2012 monsoon season indicating significant CC (above 99 % level) up to week 2 (12-18 days), and also a comparatively higher CC (0.45) during the week 3 forecast (days 19-25). The average CC between observed and forecasted weekly AIR rainfall over four homogeneous regions of India is found to be the lowest over the southern peninsula of India (SPI), and northeast India (NEI) is found to be significant only for the week 1 (days 5-11) forecast. However, the CC is found to be significant over northwest India (NWI) and central India (CEI), at least above the 90 % level up to 18 days, with NWI having slightly better skill compared to the CEI. For the individual monsoon seasons of 2010, 2011 and 2012, there is some variation in CC and other skill scores over the four

  9. Prediction and Monitoring of Monsoon Intraseasonal Oscillations over Indian Monsoon Region in an Ensemble Prediction System using CFSv2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borah, Nabanita; Sukumarpillai, Abhilash; Sahai, Atul Kumar; Chattopadhyay, Rajib; Joseph, Susmitha; De, Soumyendu; Nath Goswami, Bhupendra; Kumar, Arun

    2014-05-01

    An ensemble prediction system (EPS) is devised for the extended range prediction (ERP) of monsoon intraseasonal oscillations (MISO) of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) using NCEP Climate Forecast System model version2 at T126 horizontal resolution. The EPS is formulated by producing 11 member ensembles through the perturbation of atmospheric initial conditions. The hindcast experiments were conducted at every 5-day interval for 45 days lead time starting from 16th May to 28th September during 2001-2012. The general simulation of ISM characteristics and the ERP skill of the proposed EPS at pentad mean scale are evaluated in the present study. Though the EPS underestimates both the mean and variability of ISM rainfall, it simulates the northward propagation of MISO reasonably well. It is found that the signal-to-noise ratio becomes unity by about18 days and the predictability error saturates by about 25 days. Though useful deterministic forecasts could be generated up to 2nd pentad lead, significant correlations are observed even up to 4th pentad lead. The skill in predicting large-scale MISO, which is assessed by comparing the predicted and observed MISO indices, is found to be ~17 days. It is noted that the prediction skill of actual rainfall is closely related to the prediction of amplitude of large scale MISO as well as the initial conditions related to the different phases of MISO. Categorical prediction skills reveals that break is more skillfully predicted, followed by active and then normal. The categorical probability skill scores suggest that useful probabilistic forecasts could be generated even up to 4th pentad lead.

  10. On the dominant intra-seasonal modes over the East Asia-western North Pacific summer monsoon region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ha, Kyung-Ja; Oh, Hyoeun

    2017-04-01

    Intra-seasonal monsoon prediction is the most imperative task due to high impact on 2/3 of world populations' daily life, but there remains an enduring challenge in climate science. The present study aims to provide a physical understanding of the sources for prediction of dominant intra-seasonal modes in the East Asian-western North Pacific summer monsoon (EA-WNPSM): preMeiyu&Baiu, Changma&Meiyu, WNPSM, and monsoon gyre modes classified by the self-organizing map analysis. The major modes tend to be dominated by the moisture convergence of the moisture budget equation along the rain-band. The preMeiyu-Baiu mode is strongly linked to both the anomalous low-level convergence and vertical wind shear through baroclinic instability, and the Changma&Meiyu mode has a strengthened tropic-subtropics connection along the western north Pacific subtropical high, which induces vertical destabilization and strong convective instability. The WNPSM and monsoon gyre modes are characterized by anomalous southeasterly flow of warm and moist air from western north Pacific monsoon, and low-level easterly flow, respectively. Prominent difference in response to the ENSO leads to different effects of the Indian Ocean and western Pacific thermal state, and consequently, the distinct moisture supply and instability variations for the EASM intra-seasonal modes. We discuss the major driving forces of sub-seasonal variability over EA-WNPSM regions. Lastly we attempted to determine the predictability sources for the four modes in the EA-WNPSM. The selected predictors are based on the persistent and tendency signals of the SST/2m air temperature and sea level pressure fields, which reflect the asymmetric response to the ENSO and the ocean and land surface anomalous conditions. For the preMeiyu&Baiu mode, the SST cooling tendency over the WNP, which persists into summer, is the distinguishing contributor that results in strong baroclinic instability. A major precursor for the Changma&Meiyu mode

  11. Intraseasonal Variability in an Aquaplanet General Circulation Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adam H Sobel

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available An aquaplanet atmospheric general circulation model simulation with a robust intraseasonal oscillation is analyzed. The SST boundary condition resembles the observed December-April average with continents omitted, although with the meridional SST gradient reduced to be one-quarter of that observed poleward of 10 ̊ latitude. Slow, regular eastward propagation at 5 m s21 in winds and precipitation with amplitude greater than that in the observed MJO is clearly identified in unfiltered fields. Local precipitation rate is a strongly non-linear and increasing function of column precipitable water, as in observations. The model intraseasonal oscillation resembles a moisture mode that is destabilized by wind-evaporation feedback, and that propagates eastward through advection of anomalous humidity by the sum of perturbation winds and mean westerly flow. A series of sensitivity experiments are conducted to test hypothesized mechanisms. A mechanism denial experiment in which intraseasonal latent heat flux variability is removed largely eliminates intraseasonal wind and precipitation variability. Reducing the lower-troposphere westerly flow in the warm pool by reducing the zonal SST gradient slows eastward propagation, supporting the importance of horizontal advection by the low-level wind to eastward propagation. A zonally symmetric SST basic state produces weak and unrealistic intraseasonal variability between 30 and 90 day timescales, indicating the importance of mean low-level westerly winds and hence a realistic phase relationship between precipitation and surface flux anomalies for producing realistic tropical intraseasonal variability.

  12. Processes of India's offshore summer intraseasonal sea surface temperature variability

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Kurian, N.; Lengaigne, M.; Gopalakrishna, V.V.; Vialard, J.; Pous, S.; Peter, A-C.; Durand; Naik, Shweta

    ., vol.63; 2013; 329-346 Processes of India’s offshore summer intraseasonal sea surface temperature variability K. Nisha1, M. Lengaigne1,2, V.V. Gopalakrishna,1 J. Vialard2, S. Pous2, A.-C. Peter2, F. Durand3, S.Naik1 1. NIO, CSIR, Goa, India 2...

  13. The spatio-temporal structures and role of low- and high-frequency intraseasonal modes in Indian Summer monsoon rainfall observed in TRMM data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karmakar, Nirupam; Chakraborty, Arindam; Nanjundiah, Ravi S.

    2016-05-01

    This study uses precipitation estimates from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission to estimate the intensity and examine the spatiotemporal patterns in the modes found in intraseasonal timescale over the Indian monsoon region during boreal summer. Here, using multichannel singular spectrum analysis, two dominant modes of oscillations are found in the intraseasonal timescale with periodicity of 10-20-days and 20-60-days, respectively. 20-60-days mode shows northward propagation from the equatorial Indian Ocean linked with the eastward propagating modes of convective systems over the tropics. 10-20-days mode shows very complex structure with a northwestward propagating anomaly pattern emanating from the Indonesian coast moving towards central India. This pattern is found to have a possible interaction with a structure emerging from higher latitudes propagating southeastwards. The two intraseasonal modes contribute comparable amount to the total rainfall variability. The intensity of the 20-60-days (10-20-days) mode show significantly strong inverse (direct) relationship with all- India June-September rainfall and both the modes exhibit profound variability in their intensity in interannual scale. This study also establishes that the probability of getting good amount of rainfall (no rainfall) over central India increases significantly if the two intraseasonal modes exhibit positive (negative) anomalies over the region. Relation between the ISO intensities and sea surface temperature is also discussed. This study points towards the fact that the knowledge of ISO phases can increase the skill in the probabilistic forecasting of rainfall over India.

  14. The role of low-frequency intraseasonal oscillations in the anomalous Indian summer monsoon rainfall of 2002

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    S Sajani; S Naseema Beegum; K Krishna Moorthy

    2007-04-01

    We analyze the dynamical features and responsible factors of the low-frequency intraseasonal time scales which influenced the nature of onset, intensity and duration of active/break phases and withdrawal of the monsoon during the anomalous Indian summer monsoon of 2002 – the most severe drought recorded in recent times. During that season, persistent warm sea surface temperature anomalies over the equatorial Indian Ocean played a significant role in modulating the strength of the monsoon Hadley circulation. This in turn affected the onset and intense break spells especially the long break during the peak monsoon month of July. Strong low-frequency intraseasonal modulations with significant impact on the onset and active/break phases occurred in 2002 which were manifested as a good association between low-frequency intraseasonal oscillations and the onset and active/break spells. Further, SST anomalies over the equatorial Indo-Pacific region on low-frequency intraseasonal time scales were found to affect the equatorial eastward and thereby off-equatorial northward propagations of enhanced convection over the Indian region. These propagations in turn modulated the active/break cycle deciding the consequent severity of the 2002 drought.

  15. Assessment of intraseasonal variabilities in China Ocean Reanalysis (CORA)

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHANG Min; ZHOU Lei; FU Hongli; JIANG Lianghong; ZHANG Xiangming

    2016-01-01

    A regional reanalysis product—China Ocean Reanalysis (CORA)—has been developed for the China's seas and the adjacent areas. In this study, the intraseasonal variabilities (ISVs) in CORA are assessed by comparing with observations and two other reanalysis products (ECCO2 and SODA). CORA shows a better performance in capturing the intraseasonal sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and the intraseasonal sea surface heights (SSHs) than ECCO2 and SODA do, probably due to its high resolution, stronger response to the intraseasonal forcing in the atmosphere (especially the Madden-Julian Oscillation), and more available regional data for assimilation. But at the subsurface, the ISVs in CORA are likely to be weaker than reality, which is probably attributed to rare observational data for assimilation and weak diapycnal eddy diffusivity in the CORA model. According to the comparison results, CORA is a good choice for the study related to variabilities at the surface, but cares have to be taken for the study focusing on the subsurface processes.

  16. Summer monsoon intraseasonal oscillation over eastern Arabian Sea – as revealed by TRMM microwave imager products

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    S H Rahman; B Simon

    2006-10-01

    The time evolution of atmospheric parameters on intraseasonal time scale in the eastern Arabian Sea (EAS) is studied during the summer monsoon seasons of 1998–2003 using Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Microwave Imager (TMI) data. This is done using the spectral and wavelet analysis. Analysis shows that over EAS, total precipitable water vapour (TWV) and sea surface wind speed (SWS) have a periodicity of 8–15 days, 15–30 days and 30–60 days during the monsoon season. Significant power is seen in the 8–15-day time scale in TWV during onset and retreat of the summer monsoon. Analysis indicates that the timings of the intensification of 8–15, 15–30, and 30–60 days oscillations have a profound effect on the evolution of the daily rainfall over west coast of India. The positive and negative phases of these oscillations are directly related to the active and dry spells of rainfall along the west coast of India. The spectral analysis shows interannual variation of TWV and SWS. Heavy rainfall events generally occur over the west coast of India when positive phases of both 30–60 days and 15–30 days modes of TWV and SWS are simultaneously present.

  17. Causes of intraseasonal diabatic heating variability over and near the Tibetan Plateau in boreal summer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Shuangyan; Li, Tim

    2016-11-01

    The structure and evolution features of the first two leading modes of the intraseasonal diabatic heating variability over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) during northern summer are investigated using reanalysis and observational data. Both of the leading modes present a dominant 10-30-day intraseasonal oscillation (ISO). The first mode is characterized by a perturbation center over the southern TP (STP), which remains quasi-stationary and is closely related to the low-latitude ISO. The associated low-latitude ISO is originated from the tropical western Pacific (WP) and propagates westward/northwestward toward northwestern India along the mean monsoon trough. The westward propagation near the South China Sea is mainly attributed to anomalous meridional vorticity advection and the advection of the planetary vorticity by ISO flow. The stationary feature of the perturbation over the STP is ascribed to the topographical features around the STP. The intraseasonal heating variability over the STP is attributed to the alternation of anticyclonic and cyclonic flow associated with the westward-propagating ISO perturbation originated from the tropical WP. The second leading mode is characterized by an east-west asymmetric structure over the TP. The intraseasonal diabatic heating anomaly propagates clockwise from the northwestern to eastern TP, while a heating anomaly with an opposite sign propagates from the southeastern to western TP. The mid-latitude Rossby wave trains play an essential role in forming the dipole structure. The wave trains propagate southeastward before reaching the TP and then eastward as they cross the TP. The source of anomalous water vapor over the TP is originated from lower latitudes. The upper- and lower-level wave trains are well coupled over the TP, exhibiting a baroclinic structure.

  18. Daily atmospheric variability in the South American monsoon system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Krishnamurthy, V. [Institute of Global Environment and Society (IGES), Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies (COLA), Calverton, MD (United States); George Mason University, Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Earth Sciences, Fairfax, VA (United States); Misra, Vasubandhu [Florida State University, Department of Meteorology and Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies, Tallahassee, FL (United States)

    2011-08-15

    The space-time structure of the daily atmospheric variability in the South American monsoon system has been studied using multichannel singular spectrum analysis of daily outgoing longwave radiation. The three leading eigenmodes are found to have low-frequency variability while four other modes form higher frequency oscillations. The first mode has the same time variability as that of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and exhibits strong correlation with the Pacific sea surface temperature (SST). The second mode varies on a decadal time scale with significant correlation with the Atlantic SST suggesting an association with the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO). The third mode also has decadal variability but shows an association with the SST of the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO). The fourth and fifth modes describe an oscillation that has a period of about 165 days and is associated with the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO). The sixth and seventh modes describe an intraseasonal oscillation with a period of 52 days which shows strong relation with the Madden-Julian oscillation. There exists an important difference in the variability of convection between Amazon River Basin (ARB) and central-east South America (CESA). Both regions have similar variations due to ENSO though with higher magnitude in ARB. The AMO-related mode has almost identical variations in the two regions, whereas the PDO-related mode has opposite variations. The interseasonal NAO-related mode also has variations of opposite sign with comparable magnitudes in the two regions. The intraseasonal variability over the CESA is robust while it is very weak over the ARB region. The relative contributions from the low-frequency modes mainly determine the interannual variability of the seasonal mean monsoon although the interseasonal oscillation may contribute in a subtle way during certain years. The intraseasonal variability does not seem to influence the interannual variability in either region

  19. Impact of satellite data assimilation on the predictability of monsoon intraseasonal oscillations in a regional model

    KAUST Repository

    Parekh, Anant

    2017-04-07

    This study reports the improvement in the predictability of circulation and precipitation associated with monsoon intraseasonal oscillations (MISO) when the initial state is produced by assimilating Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) retrieved temperature and water vapour profiles in Weather Research Forecast (WRF) model. Two separate simulations are carried out for nine years (2003 to 2011) . In the first simulation, forcing is from National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP, CTRL) and in the second, apart from NCEP forcing, AIRS temperature and moisture profiles are assimilated (ASSIM). Ten active and break cases are identified from each simulation. Three dimensional temperature states of identified active and break cases are perturbed using twin perturbation method and carried out predictability tests. Analysis reveals that the limit of predictability of low level zonal wind is improved by four (three) days during active (break) phase. Similarly the predictability of upper level zonal wind (precipitation) is enhanced by four (two) and two (four) days respectively during active and break phases. This suggests that the initial state using AIRS observations could enhance predictability limit of MISOs in WRF. More realistic baroclinic response and better representation of vertical state of atmosphere associated with monsoon enhance the predictability of circulation and rainfall.

  20. Representation of monsoon intraseasonal oscillations in regional climate model: sensitivity to convective physics

    KAUST Repository

    Umakanth, U.

    2015-11-07

    The aim of the study is to evaluate the performance of regional climate model (RegCM) version 4.4 over south Asian CORDEX domain to simulate seasonal mean and monsoon intraseasonal oscillations (MISOs) during Indian summer monsoon. Three combinations of Grell (G) and Emanuel (E) cumulus schemes namely, RegCM-EG, RegCM-EE and RegCM-GE have been used. The model is initialized at 1st January, 2000 for a 13-year continuous simulation at a spatial resolution of 50 km. The models reasonably simulate the seasonal mean low level wind pattern though they differ in simulating mean precipitation pattern. All models produce dry bias in precipitation over Indian land region except in RegCM-EG where relatively low value of dry bias is observed. On seasonal scale, the performance of RegCM-EG is more close to observation though it fails at intraseasonal time scales. In wave number-frequency spectrum, the observed peak in zonal wind (850 hPa) at 40–50 day scale is captured by all models with a slight change in amplitude, however, the 40–50 day peak in precipitation is completely absent in RegCM-EG. The space–time characteristics of MISOs are well captured by RegCM-EE over RegCM-GE, however it fails to show the eastward propagation of the convection across the Maritime Continent. Except RegCM-EE all other models completely underestimates the moisture advection from Equatorial Indian Ocean onto Indian land region during life-cycle of MISOs. The characteristics of MISOs are studied for strong (SM) and weak (WM) monsoon years and the differences in model performances are analyzed. The wavelet spectrum of rainfall over central India denotes that, the SM years are dominated by high frequency oscillations (period <20 days) whereas little higher periods (>30 days) along with dominated low periods (<20 days) observed during WM years. During SM, RegCM-EE is dominated with high frequency oscillations (period <20 days) whereas in WM, RegCM-EE is dominated with periods >20

  1. Representation of monsoon intraseasonal oscillations in regional climate model: sensitivity to convective physics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Umakanth, U.; Kesarkar, Amit P.; Raju, Attada; Vijaya Bhaskar Rao, S.

    2016-08-01

    The aim of the study is to evaluate the performance of regional climate model (RegCM) version 4.4 over south Asian CORDEX domain to simulate seasonal mean and monsoon intraseasonal oscillations (MISOs) during Indian summer monsoon. Three combinations of Grell (G) and Emanuel (E) cumulus schemes namely, RegCM-EG, RegCM-EE and RegCM-GE have been used. The model is initialized at 1st January, 2000 for a 13-year continuous simulation at a spatial resolution of 50 km. The models reasonably simulate the seasonal mean low level wind pattern though they differ in simulating mean precipitation pattern. All models produce dry bias in precipitation over Indian land region except in RegCM-EG where relatively low value of dry bias is observed. On seasonal scale, the performance of RegCM-EG is more close to observation though it fails at intraseasonal time scales. In wave number-frequency spectrum, the observed peak in zonal wind (850 hPa) at 40-50 day scale is captured by all models with a slight change in amplitude, however, the 40-50 day peak in precipitation is completely absent in RegCM-EG. The space-time characteristics of MISOs are well captured by RegCM-EE over RegCM-GE, however it fails to show the eastward propagation of the convection across the Maritime Continent. Except RegCM-EE all other models completely underestimates the moisture advection from Equatorial Indian Ocean onto Indian land region during life-cycle of MISOs. The characteristics of MISOs are studied for strong (SM) and weak (WM) monsoon years and the differences in model performances are analyzed. The wavelet spectrum of rainfall over central India denotes that, the SM years are dominated by high frequency oscillations (period 30 days) along with dominated low periods (20 days. Except RegCM-EE, all other models fail to capture the observed spectral features for SM and WM years.

  2. Effects of Intraseasonal Oscillation on the Anomalous East Asian Summer Monsoon During 1999

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SUN Ying; DING Yihui

    2008-01-01

    The 1999 East Asian summer monsoon was very unusual for its weak northward advance and remarkably anomalous climate conditions.The monsoonal southwesterly airflow and related rain belt in East Asia were blocked south of the Yangtze River Valley.The monsoonal airflow and major moisture transport conduct shifted eastward and turned northward to Japan from the tropical western Pacific rather than to East China from the South China Sea(SCS)as in normal years.Severe and prolonged drought occurred over extensive areas of North China and heavy precipitation in South China and Japan.The investigation on the possible intrinsic mechanisms related to such an anomalous monsoon year has shown that the unique behavior of intraseasonal oscillation may play an essential role during this process.During this year,the northward propagation of 30-60-day anomalous low-level cyclone/anticyclone collapsed in the region around 20℃N and did not extend beyond the latitudes of the Yangtze River basin due to the barrier of strong cold air intrusion from the mid-latitudes.The southwesterly moisture flux on the northwestern flank of the anticyclonic moisture transport system in the western North Pacific,which was regulated by the northward shift of 30-60-day cyclonic/anticyclonic moisture transport.also did not reach the region north of 30℃N as well.Under this circumstance,the weak northward advance of the monsoon westerlies and associated northward moisture transport could not arrive in North China and led to the severe droughts there in 1999.The SCS and South China were mostly affected by the alrflow in the southern and northern flanks of the same 30-60-day cyclones or anticyclones.respectively,and thus controlled by the nearly reverse zonal wind and moisture convergent/divergent conditions.The rainfall in the SCS and South China showed out-of-phase oscillation through the transient local Hadley circulation.with the rainfall maximum occurring in the SCS (South China)when the 30-60-day

  3. Observed intraseasonal and seasonal variability of the West India Coastal Current on the continental slope

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    P Amol; D Shankar; V Fernando; A Mukherjee; S G Aparna; R Fernandes; G S Michael; S T Khalap; N P Satelkar; Y Agarvadekar; M G Gaonkar; A P Tari; A Kankonkar; S P Vernekar

    2014-07-01

    We present current data from acoustic Doppler current profilers (ADCPs) moored on the continental slope off the west coast of India. The data were collected at four locations (roughly at Kanyakumari, Kollam, Goa, and Mumbai) extending from ∼7° to ∼20° N during 2008–2012. The observations show that a seasonal cycle, including an annual cycle, is present in the West India Coastal Current (WICC); this seasonal cycle, which strengthens northward, shows considerable interannual variability and is not as strongly correlated along the coast as in climatologies based on ship drifts or the altimeter. The alongshore decorrelation of theWICC is much stronger at intraseasonal periods, which are evident during the winter monsoon all along the coast. This intraseasonal variability is stronger in the south. A striking feature of the WICC is upward phase propagation, which implies an undercurrent whose depth becomes shallower as the season progresses. There are also instances when the phase propagates downward. At the two southern mooring locations off Kollam and Kanyakumari, the cross-shore current, which is usually associated with eddy-like circulations, is comparable to the alongshore current on occasions. A comparison with data from the OSCAR (Ocean Surface Currents Analyses Real-time) data product shows not only similarities, but also significant differences, particularly in the phase. One possible reason for this phase mismatch between the ADCP current at 48 m and the OSCAR current, which represents the current in the 0–30 m depth range, is the vertical phase propagation. Current products based on Ocean General Circulation Models like ECCO2 (Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean, Phase II) and GODAS (Global Ocean Data Assimilation System) show a weaker correlation with the ADCP current, and ECCO2 does capture some of the observed variability.

  4. Observed intraseasonal and seasonal variability of the West India Coastal Current on the continental slope

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amol, P.; Shankar, D.; Fernando, V.; Mukherjee, A.; Aparna, S. G.; Fernandes, R.; Michael, G. S.; Khalap, S. T.; Satelkar, N. P.; Agarvadekar, Y.; Gaonkar, M. G.; Tari, A. P.; Kankonkar, A.; Vernekar, S. P.

    2014-06-01

    We present current data from acoustic Doppler current profilers (ADCPs) moored on the continental slope off the west coast of India. The data were collected at four locations (roughly at Kanyakumari, Kollam, Goa, and Mumbai) extending from ˜ 7° to ˜ 20°N during 2008-2012. The observations show that a seasonal cycle, including an annual cycle, is present in the West India Coastal Current (WICC); this seasonal cycle, which strengthens northward, shows considerable interannual variability and is not as strongly correlated along the coast as in climatologies based on ship drifts or the altimeter. The alongshore decorrelation of the WICC is much stronger at intraseasonal periods, which are evident during the winter monsoon all along the coast. This intraseasonal variability is stronger in the south. A striking feature of the WICC is upward phase propagation, which implies an undercurrent whose depth becomes shallower as the season progresses. There are also instances when the phase propagates downward. At the two southern mooring locations off Kollam and Kanyakumari, the cross-shore current, which is usually associated with eddy-like circulations, is comparable to the alongshore current on occasions. A comparison with data from the OSCAR (Ocean Surface Currents Analyses Real-time) data product shows not only similarities, but also significant differences, particularly in the phase. One possible reason for this phase mismatch between the ADCP current at 48 m and the OSCAR current, which represents the current in the 0-30 m depth range, is the vertical phase propagation. Current products based on Ocean General Circulation Models like ECCO2 (Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean, Phase II) and GODAS (Global Ocean Data Assimilation System) show a weaker correlation with the ADCP current, and ECCO2 does capture some of the observed variability.

  5. CHARACTERISTICS OF FREQUENCY SPECTRUM VARIATION OF INTRASEASONAL OSCILLATION OF CONVECTION DURING SOUTH CHINA SEA SUMMER MONSOON

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LIN Ai-lan; LIANG Jian-yin; LI Chun-hui

    2006-01-01

    Datasets of equivalent temperature of black body (TBB) and sea surface temperature (SST) ranging from 1980 to 1997 are used to diagnose and analyze the characteristics of frequency spectrum and strength of intraseasonal variation of convection. The relationship between the strength of intraseasonal oscillation of convection, strength of convection itself and SST in the South China Sea (SCS) is studied. It is shown that, there are distinguishable annual, interannual and interdecadal variations in both strength and frequency spectrum of intraseasonal variation of convection in SCS. There are connections between strength of convection, strength of ISO1 in the summer half (s.h.) year and SST in ensuing winter half (w.h.) year in SCS.The strong (weak) convection and strong (weak) ISO1 are associated with negative (positive) bias of SST in ensuing w.h. year in SCS.

  6. Intraseasonal and Interannual Variability of Mars Present Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hollingsworth, Jeffery L.; Bridger, Alison F. C.; Haberle, Robert M.

    1996-01-01

    This is a Final Report for a Joint Research Interchange (JRI) between NASA Ames Research Center and San Jose State University, Department of Meteorology. The focus of this JRI has been to investigate the nature of intraseasonal and interannual variability of Mars'present climate. We have applied a three-dimensional climate model based on the full hydrostatic primitive equations to determine the spatial, but primarily, the temporal structures of the planet's large-scale circulation as it evolves during a given seasonal advance, and, over multi-annual cycles. The particular climate model applies simplified physical parameterizations and is computationally efficient. It could thus easily be integrated in a perpetual season or advancing season configuration, as well as over many Mars years. We have assessed both high and low-frequency components of the circulation (i.e., motions having periods of Omicron(2-10 days) or greater than Omicron(10 days), respectively). Results from this investigation have explored the basic issue whether Mars' climate system is naturally 'chaotic' associated with nonlinear interactions of the large-scale circulation-regardless of any allowance for year-to-year variations in external forcing mechanisms. Titles of papers presented at scientific conferences and a manuscript to be submitted to the scientific literature are provided. An overview of a areas for further investigation is also presented.

  7. Rainfall Intra-Seasonal Variability and Vegetation Growth in the Ferlo Basin (Senegal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Soukèye Cissé

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available During the monsoon season, the spatiotemporal variability of rainfall impacts the growth of vegetation in the Sahel. This study evaluates this effect for the Ferlo basin in central northern Senegal. Relationships between rainfall, soil moisture (SM, and vegetation are assessed using remote sensing data (TRMM3B42 and RFE 2.0 for rainfall, ESA-CCI.SM for soil moisture and MODIS Leaf Area Index (LAI. The principal objective was to analyze the response of vegetation growth to water availability during the rainy season using statistical criteria at the scale of homogeneous vegetation-soil zones. The study covers the period from June to September for the years 2000 to 2010. The surface SM is well correlated with both rainfall products. On ferruginous soils, better correlation of intra-seasonal variations and stronger sensitivity of the vegetation to rainfall are found compared to lithosols soils. LAI responds, on average, two to three weeks after a rainfall anomaly. Moreover, dry spells (negative anomalies of seven days’ length (three days for SM anomaly significantly affect vegetation growth (maximum LAI within the season. A strong and significant link is also found between total precipitation and the number of dry spells. These datasets proved to be sufficiently reliable to assess the impacts of rainfall variability on vegetation dynamics.

  8. The sensitivity of subannual and intraseasonal tropical variability to model ocean mixed layer depth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watterson, I. G.

    2002-01-01

    The influence of air-sea interaction on subannual and intraseasonal tropical variability is explored through analysis of three long simulations of the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) with differing ocean specifications: a coupled ocean GCM, a simple 50-m mixed layer model, or climatological sea surface temperatures (SST); together with 50-year simulations with mixed layer depths of 10 m and 20 m. The analysis focuses initially on a signal similar to a Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) contained in the first two empirical orthogonal functions (EOF) of monthly anomalies of tropical 807-hPa winds in January in the coupled model. Time-lag regression is used to demonstrate that these patterns propagate eastward, although at only half the speed of the MJO, and induce perturbations to the Australian monsoon. The specified SST model shows no such propagation. Similar results are then obtained using daily data filtered to retain subannual periods. The eastward propagation speed is faster in the shallower mixed layer cases, with the 10-m case producing speeds close to observations. In the interactive models, surface energy fluxes force SST anomalies propagating ahead of the EOF convergence. These fluxes are largely consistent with evaporation perturbed by wind anomalies to the monsoon westerlies, augmented by solar radiation. The SST anomalies then further perturb the winds, as is confirmed by a separate SST perturbation experiment. From the examination of other seasons, it is seen that air-sea interaction generally enhances the amplitude of the MJO-like patterns. It also enhances their eastward propagation along westerly wind bands. Analysis of zonal wave number one winds confirms the strong sensitivity to mixed layer depth in the amplitude and period of the eastward propagating component, particularly during September through February. The results suggest that air-sea interaction may be important to the

  9. Impact of freshwater plumes on intraseasonal upper ocean variability from moored observations in the Bay of Bengal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prend, C.; Seo, H.; Weller, R. A.; Farrar, J. T.

    2016-12-01

    The Monsoon Intraseasonal Oscillations (MISO) is strongly coupled to upper ocean variability in the Bay of Bengal (BoB). Past studies suggest that net heat flux drives changes in sea surface temperature (SST) in the BoB during the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM). Here, we use high-resolution mooring observations from the northern BoB (18°N, 90°E) to examine temperature and salinity variability during the 2015 ISM season. The mixed layer heat budget analysis shows that intraseasonal temperature variability deviated greatly from the simple 1-D balance in late summer (August and September). Examination of moored mixed layer salinity and satellite sea surface salinity (SSS) fields suggests that this is due to episodic intrusions of river discharge to the northern BoB driven by southward Ekman drift. Freshwater plumes and associated salinity fronts caused shoaling of the mixed layer to less than 1 meter at times. The presence of this shallow mixed layer led to amplified SST response to MISO-driven surface heat flux. Analysis of satellite SST data and the Price-Weller-Pinkel (PWP) 1-D ocean model are then used to estimate horizontal advection and vertical entrainment, respectively. Accounting for entrainment significantly improved the temperature balance in late summer via barrier layer dynamics, while advection was of secondary importance due to weak lateral SST gradients. Analysis of long-term SSS fields suggests that freshwater plumes arrive to the northern bay in late summer each year, but the exact timing and extent of the individual intrusion event depends highly on synoptic wind conditions. Overall, these results indicate the critical importance of river water intrusions to improved prediction of upper ocean variability and air-sea interaction in the BoB in relation to MISO and ISM rainfall.

  10. Extraction and prediction of indices for monsoon intraseasonal oscillations: an approach based on nonlinear Laplacian spectral analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sabeerali, C. T.; Ajayamohan, R. S.; Giannakis, Dimitrios; Majda, Andrew J.

    2017-01-01

    An improved index for real-time monitoring and forecast verification of monsoon intraseasonal oscillations (MISOs) is introduced using the recently developed nonlinear Laplacian spectral analysis (NLSA) technique. Using NLSA, a hierarchy of Laplace-Beltrami (LB) eigenfunctions are extracted from unfiltered daily rainfall data from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project over the south Asian monsoon region. Two modes representing the full life cycle of the northeastward-propagating boreal summer MISO are identified from the hierarchy of LB eigenfunctions. These modes have a number of advantages over MISO modes extracted via extended empirical orthogonal function analysis including higher memory and predictability, stronger amplitude and higher fractional explained variance over the western Pacific, Western Ghats, and adjoining Arabian Sea regions, and more realistic representation of the regional heat sources over the Indian and Pacific Oceans. Real-time prediction of NLSA-derived MISO indices is demonstrated via extended-range hindcasts based on NCEP Coupled Forecast System version 2 operational output. It is shown that in these hindcasts the NLSA MISO indices remain predictable out to ˜ 3 weeks.

  11. Seminal role of stratiform clouds in large-scale aggregation of tropical rain in boreal summer monsoon intraseasonal oscillations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Siddharth; Arora, Anika; Chattopadhyay, R.; Hazra, Anupam; Rao, Suryachandra A.; Goswami, B. N.

    2017-02-01

    Modification of the vertical structure of non-adiabatic heating by significant abundance of the stratiform rain in the tropics has been known to influence the large-scale circulation. However, the role of the stratiform rain on the space-time evolution of the observed Boreal summer monsoon intraseasonal oscillations (MISO) has so far been ignored. In the present study, we unravel a feedback mechanism through which the stratiform component of the rain leads to aggregation (organization) of rain on the MISO scale, making it an indispensable component of the MISO evolution dynamics. Using TRMM 3A25 monthly mean data (between 1998 and 2013), the ratio between convective and stratiform rain (RCS) is shown to be strongly related to the total rainfall. Further, composites of rainfall and circulation anomalies corresponding to high (low) values of RCS over the Central India or over the Equatorial Indian Ocean show spatial structures remarkably similar to that associated with the MISOs. Analyzing lead-lag relationship between the convective rain, the stratiform rain and the large scale moisture convergence with respect to peak active (break) spells from daily modern era retrospective-analysis for research and applications data, we unravel that the initial isolated convective elements spawn the stratiform rain which in turn modifies the vertical distribution of heating and leads to stronger large scale moisture convergence thereby producing more convective elements and more stratiform rain ultimately leading to aggregation of rain on the MISO scale. Our finding indicates that large and persisting systematic biases in simulating the summer monsoon rainfall over the Asian monsoon region by climate models are likely to be related to the systematic biases in simulating the MISOs which in turn are related to the serious underestimation of stratiform rain in most climate models.

  12. Intraseasonal variability of mixed layer depth in the tropical Indian Ocean

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Keerthi, M.G.; Lengaigne, M.; Drushka, K.; Vialard, J.; de Boyer, M.C.; Pous, S.; Levy, M.; Muraleedharan, P.M.

    of the Findlater jet intensity. During winter, the Madden–Julian Oscillation drives most of the intraseasonal MLD variability in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean. Large winter MLD signals in northern Arabian Sea can, on the other hand, be related to advection...

  13. Regional Heat Sources and the Active and Break Phases of Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Variability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Annamalai, H; Sperber, K R

    2003-12-15

    The boreal summer intraseasonal variability (BSISV) associated with the 30-50 day mode is represented by the co-existence of three components, poleward propagation of convection over the Indian and tropical west Pacific longitudes and eastward propagation along the equator. The hypothesis that the three components influence each other has been investigated using observed OLR, NCEP-NCAR reanalysis, and solutions from an idealized linear model. The null hypothesis is that the three components are mutually independent. Cyclostationary EOF (CsEOF) analysis is applied on filtered OLR to extract the life-cycle of the BSISV. The dominant mode of CsEOF is significantly tied to observed rainfall over the Indian subcontinent. The components of the heating patterns from CsEOF analysis serve as prescribed forcings for the linear model. This allows us to ascertain which heat sources and sinks are instrumental in driving the large-scale monsoon circulation during the BSISV life-cycle. We identify three new findings: (1) the circulation anomalies that develop as a Rossby wave response to suppressed convection over the equatorial Indian Ocean associated with the previous break phase of the BSISV precondition the ocean-atmosphere system in the western Indian Ocean and trigger the next active phase of the BSISV, (2) the development of convection over the tropical west Pacific forces descent anomalies to the west. This, in conjunction with the weakened cross-equatorial flow due to suppressed convective anomalies over the equatorial Indian Ocean reduce the tropospheric moisture over the Arabian Sea, and promote westerly wind anomalies that do not recurve over India. As a result the low-level cyclonic vorticity shifts from India to southeast Asia and break conditions are initiated over India, and (3) the circulation anomalies forced by equatorial Indian Ocean convective anomalies significantly influence the active/break phases over the tropical west Pacific. Our model solutions support

  14. Observed seasonal and intraseasonal variability of the East India Coastal Current on the continental slope

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    A Mukherjee; D Shankar; V Fernando; P Amol; S G Aparna; R Fernandes; G S Michael; S T Khalap; N P Satelkar; Y Agarvadekar; M G Gaonkar; A P Tari; A Kankonkar; S Vernekar

    2014-08-01

    We present data from three acoustic Doppler current profilers (ADCPs) moored off Cuddalore (12°N), Kakinada (16.5°N), and Gopalpur (19°N) on the continental slope of the western Bay of Bengal and one mooring on the slope of the northern bay (89°E, 19°N; referred to as being located at Paradip). The data were collected during May 2009 to March 2013 and the observations show that the seasonal cycle, which includes the annual cycle, the semi-annual cycle, and a peak around 120 days, dominates the observed variability of the East India Coastal Current (EICC). Spectral analysis suggests that the 120-day peak dominates the seasonal variability at Paradip and is strong at Gopalpur and Kakinada. The annual cycle is coherent along the western boundary of the bay, i.e., the east coast of India, but with significant phase differences between moorings. At the semi-annual and 120-day periods, the alongshore coherence is weaker. Intraseasonal variability is weaker than the seasonal cycle, particularly at Cuddalore and Paradip, and it exhibits seasonality: the strongest intraseasonal variation is during spring (February–April). Peaks around 12 and 20–22 days are also seen at Gopalpur, Kakinada, and Cuddalore. A striking feature of the currents is the upward phase propagation, but there are also instances when phase propagates downward. The much lower vertical phase speed in the top ∼100 m at Cuddalore leads to a distinct undercurrent at this location; at other locations, the undercurrent, though it exists often, is not as striking. During spring, however, the EICC tends to flow poleward (eastward) at Cuddalore, Kakinada, and Gopalpur (Paradip) over the top ∼300 m, which is the maximum depth to which observations were made. The cross-shore component of the EICC is much weaker than the alongshore component at Cuddalore and, except for a few bursts during spring, at Kakinada and Gopalpur. It is only at Paradip, on the slope of the northern boundary, that significant

  15. Observed seasonal and intraseasonal variability of the East India Coastal Current on the continental slope

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mukherjee, A.; Shankar, D.; Fernando, V.; Amol, P.; Aparna, S. G.; Fernandes, R.; Michael, G. S.; Khalap, S. T.; Satelkar, N. P.; Agarvadekar, Y.; Gaonkar, M. G.; Tari, A. P.; Kankonkar, A.; Vernekar, S.

    2014-08-01

    We present data from three acoustic Doppler current profilers (ADCPs) moored off Cuddalore (12∘N), Kakinada (16.5∘N), and Gopalpur (19∘N) on the continental slope of the western Bay of Bengal and one mooring on the slope of the northern bay (89∘E, 19∘N; referred to as being located at Paradip). The data were collected during May 2009 to March 2013 and the observations show that the seasonal cycle, which includes the annual cycle, the semi-annual cycle, and a peak around 120 days, dominates the observed variability of the East India Coastal Current (EICC). Spectral analysis suggests that the 120-day peak dominates the seasonal variability at Paradip and is strong at Gopalpur and Kakinada. The annual cycle is coherent along the western boundary of the bay, i.e., the east coast of India, but with significant phase differences between moorings. At the semi-annual and 120-day periods, the alongshore coherence is weaker. Intraseasonal variability is weaker than the seasonal cycle, particularly at Cuddalore and Paradip, and it exhibits seasonality: the strongest intraseasonal variation is during spring (February-April). Peaks around 12 and 20-22 days are also seen at Gopalpur, Kakinada, and Cuddalore. A striking feature of the currents is the upward phase propagation, but there are also instances when phase propagates downward. The much lower vertical phase speed in the top ˜100 m at Cuddalore leads to a distinct undercurrent at this location; at other locations, the undercurrent, though it exists often, is not as striking. During spring, however, the EICC tends to flow poleward (eastward) at Cuddalore, Kakinada, and Gopalpur (Paradip) over the top ˜300 m, which is the maximum depth to which observations were made. The cross-shore component of the EICC is much weaker than the alongshore component at Cuddalore and, except for a few bursts during spring, at Kakinada and Gopalpur. It is only at Paradip, on the slope of the northern boundary, that significant

  16. A local index of Maritime Continent intraseasonal variability based on rain rates over the land and sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vincent, C. L.; Lane, T. P.; Wheeler, M. C.

    2016-09-01

    A local index for describing intraseasonal variability over the Maritime Continent is developed. The index is based on the ratio of area-averaged rain rate over the land to that over the sea. It takes advantage of the fact that the main convective envelope of intraseasonal variability events tends to modulate the diurnal precipitation cycle over the land over the entire Maritime Continent. Lagged analysis is used to create composite intraseasonal variability events, where "day 0" is chosen according to when the normalized rain rate over the sea becomes greater than that over the land. The index identifies intraseasonal variability events associated with the Madden Julian Oscillation as well as equatorial Kelvin waves and westward propagating equatorial Rossby waves. The results suggest a similar local impact of all such events in suppressing the rain rate over land relative to that over the sea when the main convective envelope approaches.

  17. Continental-scale impacts of intra-seasonal rainfall variability on simulated ecosystem responses in Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Guan

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is expected to result in an increase of intra-seasonal rainfall variability, which has arisen from concurrent shifts in rainfall frequency, intensity and seasonality. Changes in intra-seasonal rainfall variability are likely to have important ecological impacts for terrestrial ecosystems, and quantifying these impacts across biomes and large climate gradients is required for a better prediction of ecosystem services and their responses to climate change. Here we use a synthetic weather generator and an advanced vegetation dynamic model (SEIB-DGVM to virtually conduct a series of "rainfall manipulation experiments" to study how changes in the intra-seasonal rainfall variability affect continent-scale ecosystem responses across Africa. We generated different rainfall scenarios with fixed total annual rainfall but shifts in: (i frequency vs. intensity, (ii seasonality vs. frequency, (iii intensity vs. seasonality. These scenarios were fed into the SEIB-DGVM to investigate changes in biome distributions and ecosystem productivity. We find a loss of ecosystem productivity with increased rainfall frequency and decreased intensity at very low rainfall regimes (−1 and low frequency (−1; beyond these very dry regimes, most ecosystems benefit from increasing frequency and decreasing intensity, except in the wet tropics (>1800 mm year−1 where radiation limitation prevents further productivity gains. This finding reconciles seemingly contradictory findings in previous field studies on the direction of rainfall frequency/intensity impacts on ecosystem productivity. We also find that changes in rainy season length can yield more dramatic ecosystem responses compared with similar percentage changes in rainfall frequency or intensity, with the largest impacts in semi-arid woodlands. This study demonstrates that not all rainfall regimes are ecologically equivalent, and that intra-seasonal rainfall characteristics play a significant role in

  18. Continental-scale impacts of intra-seasonal rainfall variability on simulated ecosystem responses in Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guan, K.; Good, S. P.; Caylor, K. K.; Sato, H.; Wood, E. F.; Li, H.

    2014-12-01

    Climate change is expected to modify intra-seasonal rainfall variability, arising from shifts in rainfall frequency, intensity and seasonality. These intra-seasonal changes are likely to have important ecological impacts on terrestrial ecosystems. Yet, quantifying these impacts across biomes and large climate gradients is largely missing. This gap hinders our ability to better predict ecosystem services and their responses to climate change, especially for arid and semi-arid ecosystems. Here we use a synthetic weather generator and an independently validated vegetation dynamic model (SEIB-Dynamic Global Vegetation Model, DGVM) to virtually conduct a series of "rainfall manipulation experiments" to study how changes in the intra-seasonal rainfall variability affect continent-scale ecosystem responses across Africa. We generate different rainfall scenarios with fixed total annual rainfall but shifts in (i) frequency vs. intensity, (ii) rainy season length vs. frequency, (iii) intensity vs. rainy season length. These scenarios are fed into SEIB-DGVM to investigate changes in biome distributions and ecosystem productivity. We find a loss of ecosystem productivity with increased rainfall frequency and decreased intensity at very low rainfall regimes (year-1) and low frequency (benefit from increased frequency and decreased intensity, except in the wet tropics (>1800 mm year-1) where radiation limitation prevents further productivity gains. This result reconciles seemingly contradictory findings in previous field studies on the impact of rainfall frequency/intensity on ecosystem productivity. We also find that changes in rainy season length can yield more dramatic ecosystem responses compared with similar percentage changes in rainfall frequency or intensity, with the largest impacts in semi-arid woodlands. This study demonstrates that intra-seasonal rainfall characteristics play a significant role in influencing ecosystem function and structure through controls on

  19. Intraseasonal variability and atmospheric controls on daily dust occurrence frequency over the central and western Sahara during the boreal summer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ashpole, Ian; Washington, Richard

    2013-12-01

    classify satellite-derived maps of daily dust occurrence frequency over the central and western Sahara (CWS) during the boreal summer in order to identify typical patterns using the neural network based system of self-organized maps. Resulting dust states vary in terms of the frequency of dust occurrence and its location. The most commonly occurring dust states are those of relatively low dust detection frequency. On days with relatively high dust occurrence, dust tends to favor either a location close to the Algeria-Mali-Niger border triple point (TP) or further to the northwest across the western half of the Mali-Algeria border (MAB). States in which dust is detected at both locations simultaneously are rare. There is a distinct intraseasonal progression in preferred dust location from the TP in the early season to the MAB later in the season. The evolution of dust states reveals a one-way transition from dust at the TP to dust at the MAB and then to reduced daily dust occurrence frequency. There is a distinct degree of interannual variability in the occurrence frequency of the different states, dominated by the extremes of high and low dust detection frequency. Analysis of climatological composites demonstrates that monsoon surges into the Saharan heat low are associated with days of high dust detection frequency, while a strong Harmattan into the CWS is linked to days with less frequent dust presence. The CWS atmospheric dust budget for June-August is thus strongly linked to the dynamics of the West African monsoon.

  20. Interannual variability of South American monsoon circulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alonso Gan, Manoel; Rafaele Araújo Lima, Jeane

    2016-04-01

    The South America Monsoon System (SAMS) is responsible for influencing the atmospheric circulation and precipitation over most of tropical South America (SA) during the summer season. Studies for aiming to understand the temporal variability of this system have great value to the scientific community, because the processes that control the monsoon climate are not totally clear. Thus, the main objective of this research is to investigate the possible large-scale climatic factors and the remote interaction mechanisms, which may be associated with summer season interannual variability focusing on identifying the main differences between dry and wet extremes rainy season in the South-eastern Amazon Basin (SAB), Central-West (WC) and Southeast (SE) of Brazil, which are areas influenced by the summer monsoon regime. For such analyzes, Pearson correlations, quantile method and composite analysis were used during the period from 1979 to 2014. The correlation between precipitation anomaly in SAB and the sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) and wind at 850hPa and 300hPa indicate El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influence. Precipitation anomalies in WC did not show significant correlation with SSTA. However, a pattern similar to ENSO Modoki type was observed in the composite analysis. At 850 hPa, the presence of an anomalous cyclonic (anticyclonic) circulation was observed over the central region of SA during wet (dry) summers seasons. Over SE region of Brazil, a dipole SSTA pattern over the South Atlantic was identified, as well the presence of anomalous circulations with an equivalent barotropic structure over these SSTA areas. This pattern is more evident in case of dry summer on the SE. At 300 hPa, the wave train between 30°S-60°S was observed presenting a feature curvature from 120°W reaching SA, similar to the Pacific-South American pattern (PSA). Analysis of the summer interannual variability indicated the manifestation of wet summers more frequently than dry

  1. Imprint of Historical Anthropogenic Emissions on the Subseasonal Variability of the Indian Summer Monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, D.; Bollasina, M. A.; Diffenbaugh, N. S.

    2015-12-01

    The Indian Summer Monsoon system affects the lives of over a billion people, the majority of whom who depend on agricultural activities for their livelihood. During the monsoon season, the region experiences wet and dry spells associated with multiple modes of intraseasonal variability. Such subseasonal hydroclimatic extremes have important socio-economic implications. Based on 60 years of observational data, we will present evidence to show that the characteristics of these wet and dry spells have changed significantly over the historical period. We use targeted single forcing experiments with the NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory CM3 coupled model to investigate the separate effect of aerosols and greenhouse gases on the observed long-term trends. The simulations consist of three-member ensemble experiments forced only by time-evolving anthropogenic aerosols, greenhouse gases, and natural forcings, and a five-member experiment with all forcings (natural and anthropogenic). Using these simulations, we show that anthropogenic aerosols and greenhouse gases have had a substantial effect on total rainfall and subseasonal variability during the peak monsoon season, respectively. We will also discuss how increasing aerosols and greenhouse gas concentrations have influenced the wet and dry spell characteristics, and explain the physical mechanisms responsible for such changes.

  2. Monsoon oscillations of the Findlater Jet and coastal winds of India

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Pankajakshan, T.; Zhao, C.; Muraleedharan, P.M.; Rao, G.S.P.; Sugimori, Y.

    Intraseasonal variability (ISV) of the Low Level Jet (LLJ) and its effects on coastal winds during the Indian summer monsoon are examined using National Centre for Environmental Prediction / National Centre for Atmospheric Research (NCEP) reanalyses...

  3. Intra-Seasonal Oscillation (ISO) of south Kerala rainfall during the summer monsoons of 1901-1995

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    P V Joseph; Anu Simon; Venu G Nair; Aype Thomas

    2004-06-01

    Time series of daily averaged rainfall of about 40 rain gauge stations of south Kerala, situated at the southern-most part of peninsular India between latitudes about 8°N and 10°N were subjected to Wavelet Analysis to study the Intra Seasonal Oscillation (ISO) in the rainfall and its interannual variability. Of the 128 days, 29th May to 3rd October of each of the 95 years 1901-1995 were analysed. We find that the period of ISO does not vary during a monsoon season in most of the years, but it has large inter-annual variability in the range 23 to 64 days. Period-wise, the years cluster into two groups of ISO, the SHORT consisting of periods 23, 27 and 32 days and the LONG with a single period of 64 days, both the sets at a significance level of 99%. During the 95 years at this level of significance there are 44 years with SHORT and 20 years with LONG periods. 11 years have no ISO even at the 90% level of significance. We composited NCEP SST anomalies of the summer monsoon season June to September for two groups of years during the period 1965-1993. The first group is of 5 years with a LONG ISO period of 64 days for south Kerala rainfall at significance level of 99% and the second group is of 12 years with SHORT ISO periods of 23, 27 and 32 days at the same level of significance. The SST anomaly for the LONG (SHORT) ISO resembles that for an El Nino (La Nina).

  4. Intraseasonal variability of air temperature over the mid-high latitude Eurasia in boreal winter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Shuangyan; Li, Tim

    2016-10-01

    The intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) of air temperature over the mid- and high-latitude Eurasia in boreal winter was investigated by NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data. It is found that the intraseasonal temperature disturbances exhibit maximum variability near the surface in the region of 50°-75°N, 80°‒120°E and they propagate southeastwards at average zonal and meridional phase speeds of 3.2 and 2.5 m s-1, respectively. The low-level temperature signal is tightly coupled with upper-tropospheric height anomalies, and both propagate southeastward in a similar phase speed. A diagnosis of the temperature budget reveals that the southeastward propagation is primarily attributed to the advection of the temperature anomaly by the mean wind. A wave activity flux analysis indicates that the southeastward propagating wave train is likely a result of Rossby wave energy propagation. The source of the Rossby wave train appears at the high latitude Europe/Atlantic sector, where maximum wave activity flux convergence resides. During its southeastward journey, the ISO perturbation gains energy from the mean flow through both kinetic and potential energy conversions. A physics-based empirical model was constructed to predict the intraseasonal temperature anomaly over southeast China. The major predictability source is the southeastward-propagating ISO signal. The data for 1979‒2003 were used as a training period to construct the empirical model. A 10-yr (2004‒2013) independent forecast shows that the model attains a useful skill of up to 25 days.

  5. Low-frequency intraseasonal variability in a zonally symmetric aquaplanet model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Das, Surajit; Sengupta, Debasis; Chakraborty, A.; Sukhatme, Jai; Murtugudde, Raghu

    2016-12-01

    waves comprise a large portion of tropical intra-seasonal variability.

  6. Regional Heat Sources and the Active and Break Phases of Boreal Summer Intraseasonal (30-50 Day) Variability(.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Annamalai, H.; Sperber, K. R.

    2005-08-01

    The boreal summer intraseasonal variability (BSISV) associated with the 30-50-day mode is represented by the coexistence of three components: poleward propagation of convection over the Indian and tropical west Pacific longitudes and eastward propagation along the equator. The hypothesis that the three components influence each other has been investigated using observed outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), NCEP-NCAR reanalysis, and solutions from an idealized linear model. The null hypothesis is that the three components are mutually independent. Cyclostationary EOF (CsEOF) analysis is applied on filtered OLR to extract the life cycle of the BSISV. The dominant CsEOF mode is significantly tied to the observed spatial rainfall pattern associated with the active/break phases over the Indian subcontinent. The components of the heating patterns from CsEOF analysis serve as prescribed forcings for the dry version of the linear model. This allows one to investigate the possible roles that the regional heat sources and sinks play in driving the large-scale monsoon circulation at various stages of the BSISV life cycle. To understand the interactive nature between convection and circulation, the moist version of the model is forced with intraseasonal SST anomalies.The linear models reproduce the major features of the BSISV seen in the reanalysis. The linear model suggests three new findings: (i) The circulation anomalies that develop as a Rossby wave response to suppressed convection over the equatorial Indian Ocean associated with the previous break phase of the BSISV results in low-level convergence and tropospheric moisture enhancement over the equatorial western Indian Ocean and helps trigger the next active phase of the BSISV. (ii) The development of convection over the tropical west Pacific forces descent anomalies to the west. This, in conjunction with the weakened cross-equatorial flow due to suppressed convective anomalies over the equatorial Indian Ocean, reduces

  7. Climate co-variability between South America and Southern Africa at interannual, intraseasonal and synoptic scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Puaud, Yohan; Pohl, Benjamin; Fauchereau, Nicolas; Macron, Clémence; Beltrando, Gérard

    2016-08-01

    This paper investigates and quantifies co-variability between large-scale convection in the South American and Southern African sectors at different timescales (interannual, intraseasonal and synoptic), during the austral summer seasons (November-February) from 1979 to 2012. Multivariate analyses (Canonical Correlation Analysis and Principal Component Analysis) are applied to daily outgoing longwave radiation (OLR, used as a proxy for atmospheric convection) anomalies to extract the principal modes of variability and co-variability in each and between both regions, filtered to consider the appropriate time-scales. At the interannual timescale, results confirm the predominant role of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), favoring enhanced convection over both southeastern Brazil and northern Argentina on the one hand, and tropical Africa and the western Indian Ocean on the other hand. At the intraseasonal timescale, the leading mode of co-variability is related to modulations of large-scale atmospheric convection over most of South America, and 10 days later, tropical Southern Africa. This mode accounts for the impacts of the Madden-Julian-oscillation (MJO) over these regions: identifying robust co-variability at the intraseasonal timescale between both regions require thus to consider a temporal shift between the two sectors. At the synoptic scale, however, co-variability consists mostly of a synchronous modulation of the large-scale atmospheric convection over the South American and Southern African sectors. This results from the development of concomitant Rossby waves forming a continuous wave train over the South Atlantic in the mid-latitudes, affecting both the South Atlantic and South Indian Convergence Zones. Among the days when convection shows significant anomalies (30 % of the total days in each sector), this synchronous mode occurs about 25 % of the time, individual Rossby waves modulating convection over one single region only during the remaining 75

  8. Boreal summer sub-seasonal variability of the South Asian monsoon in the Met Office GloSea5 initialized coupled model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jayakumar, A.; Turner, A. G.; Johnson, S. J.; Rajagopal, E. N.; Mohandas, Saji; Mitra, A. K.

    2017-09-01

    Boreal summer sub-seasonal variability in the Asian monsoon, otherwise known as the monsoon intra-seasonal oscillation (MISO), is one of the dominant modes of intraseasonal variability in the tropics, with large impacts on total monsoon rainfall and India's agricultural production. However, our understanding of the mechanisms involved in MISO is incomplete and its simulation in various numerical models is often flawed. In this study, we focus on the objective evaluation of the fidelity of MISO simulation in the Met Office Global Seasonal forecast system version 5 (GloSea5), an initialized coupled model. We analyze a series of nine-member hindcasts from GloSea5 over 1996-2009 during the peak monsoon period (July-August) over the South-Asian monsoon domain focusing on aspects of the time-mean background state and air-sea interaction processes pertinent to MISO. Dominant modes during this period are evident in power spectrum analysis, but propagation and evolution characteristics of the MISO are not realistic. We find that simulated air-sea interactions in the central Indian Ocean are not supportive of MISO initiation in that region, likely a result of the low surface wind variance there. As a consequence, the expected near-quadrature phase relationship between SST and convection is not represented properly over the central equatorial Indian Ocean, and northward propagation from the equator is poorly simulated. This may reinforce the equatorial rainfall mean state bias in GloSea5.

  9. Model performance metrics and process diagnostics for boreal summer intraseasonal variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neena, J. M.; Waliser, Duane; Jiang, Xianan

    2017-03-01

    Representation of the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillations (BSISO) is evaluated in the 20-year climate simulations from 27 general circulation models (GCMs), produced as part of a global multi-model evaluation project coordinated to study the vertical structure and physical processes of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO). Model performance metrics are developed to assess the simulated BSISO characteristics, with a special focus on its northward propagation over the Asian monsoon domain. Several process-oriented diagnostics developed by the MJO community are also tested for the BSISO. Simulating the phase speed and meridional extent of BSISO northward propagation, the northwest-southeast tilted rain-band structure and the quasi-biweekly mode are identified as some of the persisting problems for many GCMs. Interestingly, many of the GCMs, which capture BSISO eastward propagation, also show good fidelity in simulating BSISO northward propagation. Meridional vertical profiles of anomalous wind, temperature and diabatic heating of BSISO are better simulated in the GCMs that simulate the northward propagation. Process-oriented diagnostics based on seasonal mean vertical shear of zonal and meridional wind, large-scale rain fraction and relative humidity are also examined, but it still remains challenge to find a process diagnostic which is strongly linked to BSISO northward propagation. The complex spatial structure and presence of multi-scale disturbances, demand the development of more focused GCM evaluation metrics and process diagnostics specifically for the BSISO.

  10. Model performance metrics and process diagnostics for boreal summer intraseasonal variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neena, J. M.; Waliser, Duane; Jiang, Xianan

    2016-05-01

    Representation of the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillations (BSISO) is evaluated in the 20-year climate simulations from 27 general circulation models (GCMs), produced as part of a global multi-model evaluation project coordinated to study the vertical structure and physical processes of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO). Model performance metrics are developed to assess the simulated BSISO characteristics, with a special focus on its northward propagation over the Asian monsoon domain. Several process-oriented diagnostics developed by the MJO community are also tested for the BSISO. Simulating the phase speed and meridional extent of BSISO northward propagation, the northwest-southeast tilted rain-band structure and the quasi-biweekly mode are identified as some of the persisting problems for many GCMs. Interestingly, many of the GCMs, which capture BSISO eastward propagation, also show good fidelity in simulating BSISO northward propagation. Meridional vertical profiles of anomalous wind, temperature and diabatic heating of BSISO are better simulated in the GCMs that simulate the northward propagation. Process-oriented diagnostics based on seasonal mean vertical shear of zonal and meridional wind, large-scale rain fraction and relative humidity are also examined, but it still remains challenge to find a process diagnostic which is strongly linked to BSISO northward propagation. The complex spatial structure and presence of multi-scale disturbances, demand the development of more focused GCM evaluation metrics and process diagnostics specifically for the BSISO.

  11. Primary productivity and its variability in the equatorial South China Sea during the northeast monsoon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. H. Ooi

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Near coastal areas of the equatorial South China Sea (SCS are one of the world's regions with highest primary productivity (phytoplankton growth. Concentrations of phytoplankton in the SCS depend significantly on atmospheric forcings and the oceanic state, in particular during the northeast (winter monsoon season from November to March. Aided by new ocean-observing satellite data, we present a climatological overview of recent surface atmospheric and oceanic features in the equatorial SCS during the northeast monsoon to identify the dominant air-sea processes influencing and modulating the primary productivity of the region. Measured chlorophyll a concentrations are used as a proxy for phytoplankton amounts and the spatial and temporal variations are characterized according to meteorological conditions. Converging northeasterly surface winds support high chlorophyll a concentrations along East Malaysia's coastline in conjunction with a continual nutrient supply from the bottom of the continental shelf by vertical mixing. The mixing can be enhanced due to increased turbulence by wind-generated high waves when they approach shallow water from the deep basin during strong cold surges and monsoon disturbances. Intraseasonal variability during the winter monsoon is characterized by a coastal increase of chlorophyll a starting in November and peaking in January. A general decrease is observed in March. Interannual variability of chlorophyll a concentrations is influenced by ENSO (due to the known modulation of cold surge occurrences, with decreases during El Niño and increases during La Niña in early winter along the shore of East Malaysia. As an example, we discuss an enhanced phytoplankton growth event that occurred due to a typical cold surge-induced Borneo vortex event in January 2010.

  12. Simulation of Indian summer monsoon intraseasonal oscillations in a superparameterized coupled climate model: need to improve the embedded cloud resolving model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goswami, Bidyut B.; Mukhopadhyay, P.; Khairoutdinov, Marat; Goswami, B. N.

    2013-09-01

    The characteristic features of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) and monsoon intraseasonal oscillations (MISO) are analyzed in the 25 year simulation by the superparameterized Community Climate System Model (SP-CCSM). The observations indicate the low frequency oscillation with a period of 30-60 day to have the highest power with a dominant northward propagation, while the faster mode of MISO with a period of 10-20 day shows a stationary pattern with no northward propagation. SP-CCSM simulates two dominant quasi-periodic oscillations with periods 15-30 day and 40-70 day indicating a systematic low frequency bias in simulating the observed modes. Further, contrary to the observation, the SP-CCSM 15-30 day mode has a significant northward propagation; while the 40-70 day mode does not show prominent northward propagation. The inability of the SP-CCSM to reproduce the observed modes correctly is shown to be linked with inability of the cloud resolving model (CRM) to reproduce the characteristic heating associated with the barotropic and baroclinic vertical structures of the high-frequency and the low-frequency modes. It appears that the superparameterization in the General Circulation Model (GCM) certainly improves seasonal mean model bias significantly. There is a need to improve the CRM through which the barotropic and baroclinic modes are simulated with proper space and time distribution.

  13. Monsoon regime in the Indian Ocean and zooplankton variability

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Nair, V.R.

    The monsoonal effects on zooplankton lead to characteristic zoogeographic patterns in the open ocean and coastal waters. The evaluation of zooplankton variability in the Indian Ocean is presented in three sections: the open ocean, coastal waters...

  14. Tropical Intraseasonal Variability in 14 IPCC AR4 Climate Models Part I: Convective Signals

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lin, J; Kiladis, G N; Mapes, B E; Weickmann, K M; Sperber, K R; Lin, W; Wheeler, M; Schubert, S D; Genio, A D; Donner, L J; Emori, S; Gueremy, J; Hourdin, F; Rasch, P J; Roeckner, E; Scinocca, J F

    2005-05-06

    This study evaluates the tropical intraseasonal variability, especially the fidelity of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) simulations, in 14 coupled general circulation models (GCMs) participating in the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). Eight years of daily precipitation from each model's 20th century climate simulation are analyzed and compared with daily satellite retrieved precipitation. Space-time spectral analysis is used to obtain the variance and phase speed of dominant convectively coupled equatorial waves, including the MJO, Kelvin, equatorial Rossby (ER), mixed Rossby-gravity (MRG), and eastward inertio-gravity (EIG) and westward inertio-gravity (WIG) waves. The variance and propagation of the MJO, defined as the eastward wavenumbers 1-6, 30-70 day mode, are examined in detail. The results show that current state-of-the-art GCMs still have significant problems and display a wide range of skill in simulating the tropical intraseasonal variability. The total intraseasonal (2-128 day) variance of precipitation is too weak in most of the models. About half of the models have signals of convectively coupled equatorial waves, with Kelvin and MRG-EIG waves especially prominent. However, the variances are generally too weak for all wave modes except the EIG wave, and the phase speeds are generally too fast, being scaled to excessively deep equivalent depths. An interesting result is that this scaling is consistent within a given model across modes, in that both the symmetric and antisymmetric modes scale similarly to a certain equivalent depth. Excessively deep equivalent depths suggest that these models may not have a large enough reduction in their ''effective static stability'' due to diabatic heating. The MJO variance approaches the observed value in only two of the 14 models, but is less than half of the observed value in the other 12 models. The ratio between the eastward MJO variance

  15. Sea surface temperature variability over North Indian Ocean - A study of two contrasting monsoon seasons

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    RameshKumar, M.R.; Sathyendranath, S.; Viswambharan, N.K.; Rao, L.V.G.

    Using the satellite derived sea surface temperature (SST) data for 1979 (bad monsoon) and 1983 (good monsoon), the SST variability for two contrasting monsoon seasons is studied. The study indicates that large negative anomalies off the Somali...

  16. Asian monsoon variability, cyclicities, and forcing mechanisms

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Naidu, P.D.

    meridonal over turning with the lower circulation limb being the strong low-level southwesterly summer monsoon winds of the western Indian Ocean. The convergence of these air masses and their uplift due to heating and orographic steering cause seasonal... is the dominant climatic feature of the Indian Ocean tropics and the adjacent continent. Boreal summer is characterized by high solar radiation that causes intense sensible and latent heating over northern India and Tibet Plateau. This pattern of heating...

  17. Variability of winter and summer surface ozone in Mexico City on the intraseasonal timescale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barrett, Bradford S.; Raga, Graciela B.

    2016-12-01

    Surface ozone concentrations in Mexico City frequently exceed the Mexican standard and have proven difficult to forecast due to changes in meteorological conditions at its tropical location. The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is largely responsible for intraseasonal variability in the tropics. Circulation patterns in the lower and upper troposphere and precipitation are associated with the oscillation as it progresses eastward around the planet. It is typically described by phases (labeled 1 through 8), which correspond to the broad longitudinal location of the active component of the oscillation with enhanced precipitation. In this study we evaluate the intraseasonal variability of winter and summer surface ozone concentrations in Mexico City, which was investigated over the period 1986-2014 to determine if there is a modulation by the MJO that would aid in the forecast of high-pollution episodes. Over 1 000 000 hourly observations of surface ozone from five stations around the metropolitan area were standardized and then binned by active phase of the MJO, with phase determined using the real-time multivariate MJO index. Highest winter ozone concentrations were found in Mexico City on days when the MJO was active and in phase 2 (over the Indian Ocean), and highest summer ozone concentrations were found on days when the MJO was active and in phase 6 (over the western Pacific Ocean). Lowest winter ozone concentrations were found during active MJO phase 8 (over the eastern Pacific Ocean), and lowest summer ozone concentrations were found during active MJO phase 1 (over the Atlantic Ocean). Anomalies of reanalysis-based cloud cover and UV-B radiation supported the observed variability in surface ozone in both summer and winter: MJO phases with highest ozone concentration had largest positive UV-B radiation anomalies and lowest cloud-cover fraction, while phases with lowest ozone concentration had largest negative UV-B radiation anomalies and highest cloud

  18. Future projection of Indian summer monsoon variability under climate change scenario: An assessment from CMIP5 climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharmila, S.; Joseph, S.; Sahai, A. K.; Abhilash, S.; Chattopadhyay, R.

    2015-01-01

    In this study, the impact of enhanced anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions on the possible future changes in different aspects of daily-to-interannual variability of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) is systematically assessed using 20 coupled models participated in the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5. The historical (1951-1999) and future (2051-2099) simulations under the strongest Representative Concentration Pathway have been analyzed for this purpose. A few reliable models are selected based on their competence in simulating the basic features of present-climate ISM variability. The robust and consistent projections across the selected models suggest substantial changes in the ISM variability by the end of 21st century indicating strong sensitivity of ISM to global warming. On the seasonal scale, the all-India summer monsoon mean rainfall is likely to increase moderately in future, primarily governed by enhanced thermodynamic conditions due to atmospheric warming, but slightly offset by weakened large scale monsoon circulation. It is projected that the rainfall magnitude will increase over core monsoon zone in future climate, along with lengthening of the season due to late withdrawal. On interannual timescales, it is speculated that severity and frequency of both strong monsoon (SM) and weak monsoon (WM) might increase noticeably in future climate. Substantial changes in the daily variability of ISM are also projected, which are largely associated with the increase in heavy rainfall events and decrease in both low rain-rate and number of wet days during future monsoon. On the subseasonal scale, the model projections depict considerable amplification of higher frequency (below 30 day mode) components; although the dominant northward propagating 30-70 day mode of monsoon intraseasonal oscillations may not change appreciably in a warmer climate. It is speculated that the enhanced high frequency mode of monsoon ISOs due to increased GHG induced warming

  19. Improvement of Systematic Bias of mean state and the intraseasonal variability of CFSv2 through superparameterization and revised cloud-convection-radiation parameterization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mukhopadhyay, P.; Phani Murali Krishna, R.; Goswami, Bidyut B.; Abhik, S.; Ganai, Malay; Mahakur, M.; Khairoutdinov, Marat; Dudhia, Jimmy

    2016-05-01

    Inspite of significant improvement in numerical model physics, resolution and numerics, the general circulation models (GCMs) find it difficult to simulate realistic seasonal and intraseasonal variabilities over global tropics and particularly over Indian summer monsoon (ISM) region. The bias is mainly attributed to the improper representation of physical processes. Among all the processes, the cloud and convective processes appear to play a major role in modulating model bias. In recent times, NCEP CFSv2 model is being adopted under Monsoon Mission for dynamical monsoon forecast over Indian region. The analyses of climate free run of CFSv2 in two resolutions namely at T126 and T382, show largely similar bias in simulating seasonal rainfall, in capturing the intraseasonal variability at different scales over the global tropics and also in capturing tropical waves. Thus, the biases of CFSv2 indicate a deficiency in model's parameterization of cloud and convective processes. Keeping this in background and also for the need to improve the model fidelity, two approaches have been adopted. Firstly, in the superparameterization, 32 cloud resolving models each with a horizontal resolution of 4 km are embedded in each GCM (CFSv2) grid and the conventional sub-grid scale convective parameterization is deactivated. This is done to demonstrate the role of resolving cloud processes which otherwise remain unresolved. The superparameterized CFSv2 (SP-CFS) is developed on a coarser version T62. The model is integrated for six and half years in climate free run mode being initialised from 16 May 2008. The analyses reveal that SP-CFS simulates a significantly improved mean state as compared to default CFS. The systematic bias of lesser rainfall over Indian land mass, colder troposphere has substantially been improved. Most importantly the convectively coupled equatorial waves and the eastward propagating MJO has been found to be simulated with more fidelity in SP-CFS. The reason of

  20. Indian monsoon variability on millennial-orbital timescales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kathayat, Gayatri; Cheng, Hai; Sinha, Ashish; Spötl, Christoph; Edwards, R Lawrence; Zhang, Haiwei; Li, Xianglei; Yi, Liang; Ning, Youfeng; Cai, Yanjun; Lui, Weiguo Lui; Breitenbach, Sebastian F M

    2016-04-13

    The Indian summer monsoon (ISM) monsoon is critical to billions of people living in the region. Yet, significant debates remain on primary ISM drivers on millennial-orbital timescales. Here, we use speleothem oxygen isotope (δ(18)O) data from Bittoo cave, Northern India to reconstruct ISM variability over the past 280,000 years. We find strong coherence between North Indian and Chinese speleothem δ(18)O records from the East Asian monsoon domain, suggesting that both Asian monsoon subsystems exhibit a coupled response to changes in Northern Hemisphere summer insolation (NHSI) without significant temporal lags, supporting the view that the tropical-subtropical monsoon variability is driven directly by precession-induced changes in NHSI. Comparisons of the North Indian record with both Antarctic ice core and sea-surface temperature records from the southern Indian Ocean over the last glacial period do not suggest a dominant role of Southern Hemisphere climate processes in regulating the ISM variability on millennial-orbital timescales.

  1. Asian Summer Monsoon and its Associated Rainfall Variability in Thailand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Atsamon Limsakul

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available The Asian monsoon is an important component of the Earth's climate. Its associated rainfall variability is a crucial fac¬tor for Thailand's socio-economic development, water resources and agricultural management. An analysis shows that the Thailand rainfall annual cycle is in phase with the Indian summer monsoon (ISM and the western North Pacific summer monsoon (WNPSM. On the basis of the Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF analysis, the dominant spatial-temporal interannual variability in summer monsoon rainfall (Jun.-Sep. during 1975-2006 could be explained by the first two EOF modes, accounting for 34% of the total variance. The EOF1 was spatially dominated by strong positive signals in the central and east, whereas the EOF2 exhibited dipole variability. The coefficient time series of EOF1 significantly correlated posi¬tively with ISM index, but negatively with WNPSM index. The results suggest that summer monsoon rainfall in Thailand is higher (lower than normal during the strengthening (weakening of ISM. In contrast, rainfall in the north-east (central is surplus (deficit during the strengthening (weakening of WNPSM. These findings imply that, on an interannual time scale, ISM and WNPSM exert their influence to a different extent on summer monsoon rainfall in Thailand. A clear picture of linking mechanisms and interactions with another climate mode in the Indo-Pacific sector needs to be understood. This knowledge is essential for effectively adapting to climate-related hazards and rainfall extremes and for better management of water resource and agriculture in Thailand, especially under current/future warming conditions.

  2. Intraseasonal variability in the far-east pacific: investigation of the role of air-sea coupling in a regional coupled model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Small, R.J. [Naval Research Laboratory, Jacobs Technology, Stennis Space Center, MS (United States); University of Hawaii, International Pacific Research Center, POST 401, Honolulu, HI (United States); Xie, Shang-Ping [University of Hawaii, International Pacific Research Center, POST 401, Honolulu, HI (United States); University of Hawaii, Department of Meteorology, School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, Honolulu, HI (United States); Maloney, Eric D. [Colorado State University, Department of Atmospheric Science, Fort Collins, CO (United States); Szoeke, Simon P. de [Oregon State University, College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences, Corvallis, OR (United States); Miyama, Toru [Frontier Research for Global Change, Yokohama (Japan)

    2011-03-15

    Intraseasonal variability in the eastern Pacific warm pool in summer is studied, using a regional ocean-atmosphere model, a linear baroclinic model (LBM), and satellite observations. The atmospheric component of the model is forced by lateral boundary conditions from reanalysis data. The aim is to quantify the importance to atmospheric deep convection of local air-sea coupling. In particular, the effect of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies on surface heat fluxes is examined. Intraseasonal (20-90 day) east Pacific warm-pool zonal wind and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) variability in the regional coupled model are correlated at 0.8 and 0.6 with observations, respectively, significant at the 99% confidence level. The strength of the intraseasonal variability in the coupled model, as measured by the variance of outgoing longwave radiation, is close in magnitude to that observed, but with a maximum located about 10 further west. East Pacific warm pool intraseasonal convection and winds agree in phase with those from observations, suggesting that remote forcing at the boundaries associated with the Madden-Julian oscillation determines the phase of intraseasonal convection in the east Pacific warm pool. When the ocean model component is replaced by weekly reanalysis SST in an atmosphere-only experiment, there is a slight improvement in the location of the highest OLR variance. Further sensitivity experiments with the regional atmosphere-only model in which intraseasonal SST variability is removed indicate that convective variability has only a weak dependence on the SST variability, but a stronger dependence on the climatological mean SST distribution. A scaling analysis confirms that wind speed anomalies give a much larger contribution to the intraseasonal evaporation signal than SST anomalies, in both model and observations. A LBM is used to show that local feedbacks would serve to amplify intraseasonal convection and the large-scale circulation. Further

  3. Coupled Model Simulations of Boreal Summer Intraseasonal (30-50 day) Variability, Part 1: Systematic Errors and Caution on Use of Metrics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sperber, K R; Annamalai, H

    2007-05-30

    Boreal summer intraseasonal (30-50 day) variability (BSISV) over the Asian monsoon region is more complex than its boreal winter counterpart, the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO), since it also exhibits northward and northwestward propagating convective components near India and over the west Pacific. Here we analyze the BSISV in the CMIP3 and two CMIP2+ coupled ocean-atmosphere models. Though most models exhibit eastward propagation of convective anomalies over the Indian Ocean, difficulty remains in simulating the life cycle of the BSISV, as few represent its eastward extension into the western/central Pacific. As such, few models produce statistically significant anomalies that comprise the northwest to southeast tilted convection which results from the forced Rossby waves that are excited by the near-equatorial convective anomalies. Our results indicate that it is a necessary, but not sufficient condition, that the locations the time-mean monsoon heat sources and the easterly wind shear be simulated correctly in order for the life cycle of the BSISV to be represented realistically. Extreme caution is needed when using metrics, such as the pattern correlation, for assessing the fidelity of model performance, as models with the most physically realistic BSISV do not necessarily exhibit the highest pattern correlations with observations. Furthermore, diagnostic latitude-time plots to evaluate the northward propagation of convection from the equator to India and the Bay of Bengal also need to be used with caution. Here, incorrectly representing extratropical-tropical interactions can give rise to 'apparent' northward propagation when none exists in association with the eastward propagating equatorial convection. It is necessary to use multiple cross-checking diagnostics to demonstrate the fidelity of the simulation of the BSISV.

  4. Influence of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) on Rainfall Variability over West Africa at Intraseasonal Timescale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niang, C.

    2015-12-01

    Intraseasonal variability of rainfall over West Africa plays a significant role in the economy of the region and is highly linked to agriculture and water resources. This research study aims to investigate the relationship between Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) and rainfall over West Africa during the boreal summer in the the state-of-the-art Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) type simulations performed by Atmosphere General Circulation Models (GCMs) forced with prescribed Sea Surface Temperature (SST). It aims to determine the impact of MJO on rainfall and convection over West Africa and identify the dynamical processes which are involved in the state-of-the-art climate simulations. The simulations show in general good skills in capturing its main characteristics as well as its influence on rainfall over West Africa. On the global scale, most models simulated an eastward spatio-temporal propagation of enhanced and suppressed convection similar to the observed. However, over West Africa the MJO signal is weak in few of the models although there is a good coherence in the eastward propagation. The influence on rainfall is well captured in both Sahel and Guinea regions thereby adequately producing the transition between positive and negative rainfall anomalies through the different phases as seen in the observation. Furthermore, the results show that strong active convective phase is clearly associated with the African Easterly Jet (AEJ) but the weak convective phase is associated with a much weaker AEJ particularly over coastal Ghana. In assessing the mechanisms which are involved in the above impacts the convectively equatorial coupled waves (CCEW) are analysed separately. The analysis of the longitudinal propagation of zonal wind at 850hPa and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) shows that the CCEW are very weak and their extention are very limited beyong West African region. It was found that the westward coupled equatorial Rossby waves are needed to

  5. Simulation of the intraseasonal variability over the Eastern Pacific ITCZ in climate models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jiang, Xianan [Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA (United States); Waliser, Duane E. [California Inst. of Technology (CalTech), La Canada Flintridge, CA (United States). Jet Propulsion Lab.; Kim, Daehyun [Columbia Univ., New York, NY (United States); Zhao, Ming [Princeton Univ., NJ (United States); Sperber, Kenneth R. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Stern, William F. [Princeton Univ., NJ (United States); Schubert, Siegfried D. [NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Greenbelt, MD (United States); Zhang, Guang J. [Scripps Institute of Oceanography. La Jolla, California (United States); Wang, Wanqiu [National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), National Centers for Environmental Protection. Camp Springs, MD (United States); Khairoutdinov, Marat [Institute for Terrestrial and Planetary Atmospheres. Stony Brook Univ., NY (United States); Neale, Richard B. [National Center for Atmospheric Research. Boulder, CO (United States); Lee, Myong-In [Ulsan National Institute for Science and Technology. Seoul (Korea)

    2012-08-01

    During boreal summer, convective activity over the eastern Pacific (EPAC) inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) exhibits vigorous intraseasonal variability (ISV). Previous observational studies identified two dominant ISV modes over the EPAC, i.e., a 40-day mode and a quasi-biweekly mode (QBM). The 40-day ISV mode is generally considered a local expression of the Madden-Julian Oscillation. However, in addition to the eastward propagation, northward propagation of the 40-day mode is also evident. The QBM mode bears a smaller spatial scale than the 40-day mode, and is largely characterized by northward propagation. While the ISV over the EPAC exerts significant influences on regional climate/weather systems, investigation of contemporary model capabilities in representing these ISV modes over the EPAC is limited. In this study, the model fidelity in representing these two dominant ISV modes over the EPAC is assessed by analyzing six atmospheric and three coupled general circulation models (GCMs), including one super-parameterized GCM (SPCAM) and one recently developed high-resolution GCM (GFDL HIRAM) with horizontal resolution of about 50 km. While it remains challenging for GCMs to faithfully represent these two ISV modes including their amplitude, evolution patterns, and periodicities, encouraging simulations are also noted. In general, SPCAM and HIRAM exhibit relatively superior skill in representing the two ISV modes over the EPAC. While the advantage of SPCAM is achieved through explicit representation of the cumulus process by the embedded 2-D cloud resolving models, the improved representation in HIRAM could be ascribed to the employment of a strongly entraining plume cumulus scheme, which inhibits the deep convection, and thus effectively enhances the stratiform rainfall. The sensitivity tests based on HIRAM also suggest that fine horizontal resolution could also be conducive to realistically capture the ISV over the EPAC, particularly for the QBM mode

  6. The Role of Intraseasonal Atmosphere Variability in ENSO Generation in Future Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matveeva, Tatiana; Gushchina, Daria

    2016-04-01

    The intraseasonal tropical variability (ITV) is a general component of the atmospheric circulation in the tropics, particularly, it plays the main role in the formation of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The ENSO is the general mode of interannual climate variability. It appears in two kinds of large-scale sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the equatorial Pacific Ocean: East Pacific (EP) El Niño (named also Canonical El Niño) characterized by anomalous warming in the eastern Pacific, and Central Pacific (CP) El Niño (so-called El Niño Modoki) with maximum SST anomalous in the center of the Pacific Ocean [Kao and Yu, 2009; Kug et al., 2009]. The ability of CMIP5 coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models (CGCMs) to simulate two flavors of El Niño is estimated using Empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) analysis of SST anomalies fields (Experiment Pi-Control), in this study we assessed 20 CGCMs. Spatial distribution of the first mode (EOF 1) represents SST anomalies field structure of EP El Niño and the second mode (EOF 2) is analogue of SST anomalies spatial distribution during CP El Niño [Ashok et al., 2007]. To identify intensity and frequency ENSO we also considered both NINO3 and NINO4 SST indices. NINO3 and NINO4 regions have been defined based on EOF-analysis (EOF 1 and EOF 2, resp.). It's shown that only several models were able to simulate two kinds of ENSO. Then we tested chosen CGCMs' ability to correct simulation of ITV components. For identification ITV components in the tropical troposphere we applied double space-time Fourier analysis to zonal wind at 850 hPa (U850), following the method of WK99 [Wheler and Kiladis, 1999]. Then we defined wave activity and analyzed spatial pattern of the waves and relationship between the waves and ENSO. Besides, it is shown that the ITV characteristics are altered during different flavors of ENSO [Gushchina and Dewitte, 2012]. In [Yeh et al., 2009] it has been established that the ratio

  7. Observed intra-seasonal to interannual variability of the upper ocean thermal structure in the southeastern Arabian Sea during 2002-2008

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Gopalakrishna, V.V.; Durand, F.; Nisha, K.; Lengaigne, M.; Boyer, T.P.; Costa, J.; Rao, R.R.; Ravichandran, M.; Amrithash, S.; John, L.; Girish, K.; Ravichandran, C.; Suneel, V.

    of the world ocean and provides a unique opportunity to examine the observed variability of the near-surface thermal structure over a wide spectrum, from intra-seasonal to interannual timescales. It found that most of the variability is trapped...

  8. Pleistocene Indian Monsoon rainfall variability dominated by obliquity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gebregiorgis, D.; Hathorne, E. C.; Giosan, L.; Collett, T. S.; Nuernberg, D.; Frank, M.

    2015-12-01

    The past variability of the Indian Monsoon is mostly known from records of wind strength over the Arabian Sea while Quaternary proxy records of Indian monsoon precipitation are still lacking. Here we utilize scanning x-ray fluorescence (XRF) data from a sediment core obtained by the IODP vessel JOIDES Resolution in the Andaman Sea (Site 17) to investigate changes in sediment supply from the peak monsoon precipitation regions to the core site. We use Ti/Ca and K/Rb ratios to trace changes in terrigenous flux and weathering regime, respectively, while Zr/Rb ratios suggest grain size variations. The age model of Site 17 is based on correlation of benthic C. wuellerstorfi/C. mundulus δ18O data to the LR04 global benthic δ18O stack at a resolution of ~3 kyr (Lisiecki and Raymo, 2005) for the last 2 Myrs. In its youngest part the age model is supported by five 14C ages on planktic foraminifera and the youngest Toba ash layer (Ali et al., 2015) resulting in a nearly constant sedimentation rate of ~6.5 cm/kyr. Frequency analysis of the 4 mm resolution Ti/Ca, K/Rb, and Zr/Rb time series using the REDFIT program (Schulz and Mudelsee, 2002), reveals the three main Milankovitch orbital cycles above the 90% confidence level. Depth domain spectral analysis reveals the presence of significant cyclicity at wavelengths of 28.5 and 2.8 m corresponding to the ~400 kyr and ~41 kyr cycles, respectively, during the last 2 Myr. These records suggest that Indian monsoon variability has varied in the obliquity and eccentricity bands, the latter in particular after the mid Pleistocene transition (MPT), while strong precession forcing is lacking in this super-high resolution record. Northern summer insolation and Southern Hemisphere latent heat export are out of phase during precessional cycles, but in phase in the obliquity band, which indicates that Indian monsoon precipitation has likely been more sensitive to both NH pull and SH push mechanisms (Clemens and Prell, 2003). References Ali

  9. Intra-seasonal sea level variability along the west coast of India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dhage, Laxmikant; Strub, P. Ted

    2016-11-01

    The importance of local versus distant forcing is studied for the wind-driven intra-seasonal (30-120 day) sea level anomaly (SLA) variations along the west coast of India. Significant correlations of altimeter-derived SLA on the west coast are found with the mid-basin SLA east of Sri Lanka and SLA as far as Sumatra and the equator, with increased lags, connecting with the remote forcing from the equator in the form of reflected Rossby waves. The highest correlations between SLA on the west coast and winds are found with the winds at the southern tip of India. Coherence calculations help to identify the importance of a narrow band (40-60 day) for the interactions of winds with the intra-seasonal SLA variations. A multivariate regression model, along with the coherences within this narrower band, suggest the lags of SLA on the west coast with winds to range from 0 to 2 days with the local forcing to 11-13 days with the forcing along south east coast of India. Hovmöller diagrams illustrate the propagation of signals by estimating phase speed for Rossby waves (57 cm/s) across the Indian Ocean from Sumatra and Coastal Trapped Waves (CTWs) along the west coast of India (178 cm/s). Propagation from the south-east coast of India is not as robust as Rossby waves from Sumatra.

  10. Three million years of monsoon variability over the northern Sahara

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Larrasoana, J.C.; Roberts, A.P.; Rohling, E.J.; Winklhofer, M. [School of Ocean and Earth Science, Southampton Oceanography Centre, University of Southampton, European Way, Southampton SO14 3ZH (United Kingdom); Wehausen, R. [Institut fuer Chemie und Biologie des Meeres (ICBM), Carl-von-Ossietzky-Universitaet, 26111, Oldenburg (Germany)

    2003-12-01

    We present a 3 million year record of aeolian dust supply into the eastern Mediterranean Sea, based on hematite contents derived from magnetic properties of sediments from Ocean Drilling Program Site 967. Our record has an average temporal resolution of {proportional_to}400 years. Geochemical data validate this record of hematite content as a proxy for the supply of aeolian dust from the Sahara. We deduce that the aeolian hematite in eastern Mediterranean sediments derives from the eastern Algerian, Libyan, and western Egyptian lowlands located north of the central Saharan watershed ({proportional_to}21 N). In corroboration of earlier work, we relate dust flux minima to penetration of the African summer monsoon front to the north of the central Saharan watershed. This would have enhanced soil humidity and vegetation cover in the source regions, in agreement with results from ''green Sahara'' climate models. Our results indicate that this northward monsoon penetration recurred during insolation maxima throughout the last 3 million years. As would be expected, this orbital precession-scale mechanism is modulated on both short ({proportional_to}100-kyr) and long ({proportional_to}400-kyr) eccentricity time scales. We also observe a strong expression of the {proportional_to}41-kyr (obliquity) cycle, which we discuss in terms of high- and low-latitude mechanisms that involve Southern Hemisphere meridional temperature contrasts and shifts in the latitudes of the tropics, respectively. We also observe a marked increase in sub-Milankovitch variability around the mid-Pleistocene transition ({proportional_to}0.95 Ma), which suggests a link between millennial-scale climate variability, including monsoon dynamics, and the size of northern hemisphere ice sheets. (orig.)

  11. Asian Monsoon Variability from the Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas (MADA) and Links to Indo-Pacific Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ummenhofer, Caroline; D'Arrigo, Rosanne; Anchukaitis, Kevin; Hernandez, Manuel; Buckley, Brendan; Cook, Edward

    2014-05-01

    Drought patterns across monsoon and temperate Asia over the period 1877-2005 are linked to Indo-Pacific climate variability associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). Using the Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas (MADA) composed of a high-resolution network of hydroclimatically sensitive tree-ring records with a focus on the June-August months, spatial drought patterns during El Niño and IOD events are assessed as to their agreement with an instrumental drought index and consistency in the drought response amongst ENSO/IOD events. Spatial characteristics in drought patterns are related to regional climate anomalies over the Indo-Pacific basin, using reanalysis products, including changes in the Asian monsoon systems, zonal Walker circulation, moisture fluxes, and precipitation. A weakening of the monsoon circulation over the Indian subcontinent and Southeast Asia during El Niño events, along with anomalous subsidence over monsoon Asia and reduced moisture flux, is reflected in anomalous drought conditions over India, Southeast Asia and Indonesia. When an IOD event co-occurs with an El Niño, severe drought conditions identified in the MADA for Southeast Asia, Indonesia, eastern China and central Asia are associated with a weakened South Asian monsoon, reduced moisture flux over China, and anomalous divergent flow and subsidence over Indonesia. Variations in the strength of the South Asian monsoon can also be linked to the Strange Parallels Drought (1756-1768) affecting much of Southeast Asia and the Indian subcontinent in the mid-18th Century. Large-scale climate anomalies across the wider region during years with an anomalously strengthened/weakened South Asian monsoon are discussed with implications for severe droughts prior to the instrumental period. Insights into the relative influences of Pacific and Indian Ocean variability for Asian monsoon climate on interannual to decadal and longer timescales, as recorded in the

  12. Contemporary model fidelity over the Maritime Continent: Examination of the diurnal cycle, synoptic, intraseasonal and seasonal variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baranowski, Dariusz

    2017-04-01

    One of the key challenges in subseasonal weather forecasting is the fidelity in representing the propagation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) across the Maritime Continent (MC). In reality both propagating and non-propagating MJO events are observed, but in numerical forecast the latter group largely dominates. The fact that models still struggle to realistically represent the MJO over MC is generally attributed to its complex terrain and associated vigorous diurnal cycle of convection, multi-scale interactions between local and propagating modes of convection and regional air-sea interactions. In this study, multi-model simulations from the GEWEX Atmospheric System Study (GASS) / Year of Tropical Convection (YOTC) MJO Project are analyzed to quantify contemporary model performance in representing the MC mean climate and its variability, including the diurnal cycle, synoptic, intraseasonal, and seasonal variability. This dataset has been shown to be useful in such multi-model evaluation studies over different regions and/or focusing on different physical processes (e.g. Jiang et al., JGR, 2015; Mani et al., Clim. Dyn, 2016) For this study, comprehensive model performances are evaluated using metrics that utilize the mean precipitation pattern and the amplitude and phase of the diurnal cycle, with a particular focus on the linkage between a model's local MC variability and its fidelity in representing propagation of the MJO and equatorial Kelvin waves across the MC. Subseasonal to seasonal variability of mean precipitation and its diurnal cycle in 20 year long climate simulations from over 20 general circulation models (GCMs) is examined to benchmark model performance. Furthermore, we utilize cross model differences to gain insight into which processes are most critical to realistically represent multi-scale interactions over the MC region. This includes distinguishing the behavior between a number of land (Sumatra, Borneo, New Guinea and Southeast Asia) and

  13. An Indian Ocean precursor for Indian summer monsoon rainfall variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sreejith, O. P.; Panickal, S.; Pai, S.; Rajeevan, M.

    2015-11-01

    The Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) depicts large interannual variability strongly linked with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, many of the El Niño years were not accompanied by deficient ISMR. The results from the study reveal the significant role of coupled air-sea interaction over the tropical Indian Ocean (IO) in modifying the ENSO-ISMR association. The IO warm water volume (WWV), a measure of heat content variations in the equatorial IO has strong influence on ISMR. A deepening (shoaling) of thermocline in the eastern equatorial IO (EEIO) during late boreal spring (April-May) accompanied by increase (decrease) in WWV anomalies weaken (enhance) the ISMR by enhancing (suppressing) the convection over EEIO resulting in the below (above) normal ISMR. Thus, the changes in the WWV anomalies in the EEIO along with ENSO conditions during boreal spring can be considered as a precursor for the performance of subsequent ISMR.

  14. Trends and variability of droughts over the Indian monsoon region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ganeshchandra Mallya

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Drought characteristics for the Indian monsoon region are analyzed using two different datasets and standard precipitation index (SPI, standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI, Gaussian mixture model-based drought index (GMM-DI, and hidden Markov model-based drought index (HMM-DI for the period 1901–2004. Drought trends and variability were analyzed for three epochs: 1901–1935, 1936–1971 and 1972–2004. Irrespective of the dataset and methodology used, the results indicate an increasing trend in drought severity and frequency during the recent decades (1972–2004. Droughts are becoming more regional and are showing a general shift to the agriculturally important coastal south-India, central Maharashtra, and Indo-Gangetic plains indicating higher food security and socioeconomic vulnerability in the region.

  15. The Role of Intraseasonal Variability in Supporting the Shallow-to-Deep Transition in the Amazon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serra, Y. L.; Rowe, A.; Adams, D. K.; Barbosa, H. M.; Kiladis, G. N.

    2016-12-01

    The shallow-to-deep convective transition over land typically refers to the growth of the convective boundary layer after sunrise, followed by the development of cumulus congestus clouds in the late morning/early afternoon and transitioning to deep convective clouds in the late afternoon and early evening. Under favorable conditions, this diurnal convection can result in organized mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) that last through the following morning. While many studies have focused on improving this process in models, the shallow-to-deep transition remains poorly represented especially over land. The recent DOE ARM mobile facility deployment in the Amazon, launched as part of GOAmazon, along with a dense GNSS network supported by Universidade do Estado do Amazonas (UEA)/Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE) and co-located with the CHUVA Project sites for GOAmazon, are used here to examine land-based convective processes in the tropics. In particular, this aspect of a larger study of the shallow-to-deep transition explores the role of large-scale intraseasonal wave activity in supporting the growth of MCSs over the GoAmazon region. These results will be placed in the context of local forcing mechanisms for convective growth over the region in ongoing work.

  16. The detection of post-monsoon tropospheric ozone variability over south Asia using IASI data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Barret

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available The ozone (O3 variability over south Asia during the 2008 post-monsoon season has been assessed using measurements from the MetOP-A/IASI instrument and O3 profiles retrieved with the SOftware for a Fast Retrieval of IASI Data (SOFRID. The information content study and error analyses carried out in this paper show that IASI Level 1 data can be used to retrieve tropospheric O3 columns (TOC, surface-225 hPa and UTLS columns (225–70 hPa with errors smaller than 20%. Validation with global radiosonde O3 profiles obtained during a period of 6 months show the excellent agreement between IASI and radiosonde for the UTLS with correlation coefficient R > 0.91 and good agreement in the troposphere with correlation coefficient R > 0.74. For both the UTLS and the troposphere Relative Standard Deviations (RSD are lower than 23%. Comparison with in-situ measurements from the MOZAIC program around Hyderabad demonstrates that IASI is able to capture the TOC inter and intra-seasonal variability in central India. Nevertheless, the agreement is mitigated by the fact that the smoothing of the true O3 profiles by the retrieval results in a reduction of the TOC variability detected by IASI relative to the variability observed by in situ instruments. The post-monsoon temporal variability of the vertical profile of O3 around Hyderabad has been investigated with MOZAIC observations. These observations from airborne instruments show that tropospheric O3 is steadily elevated during most of the studied period with the exception of two sharp drops following the crossing of tropical storms over India. Lagrangian simulations with the FLEXPART model indicate that elevated O3 concentrations in the middle troposphere near Hyderabad are associated with the transport of UTLS air-masses that have followed the Subtropical Westerly Jet (SWJ and subsided over northern India together

  17. Comparative Study of Monsoon Rainfall Variability over India and the Odisha State

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K C Gouda

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Indian summer monsoon (ISM plays an important role in the weather and climate system over India. The rainfall during monsoon season controls many sectors from agriculture, food, energy, and water, to the management of disasters. Being a coastal province on the eastern side of India, Odisha is one of the most important states affected by the monsoon rainfall and associated hydro-meteorological systems. The variability of monsoon rainfall is highly unpredictable at multiple scales both in space and time. In this study, the monsoon variability over the state of Odisha is studied using the daily gridded rainfall data from India Meteorological Department (IMD. A comparative analysis of the behaviour of monsoon rainfall at a larger scale (India, regional scale (Odisha, and sub-regional scale (zones of Odisha is carried out in terms of the seasonal cycle of monsoon rainfall and its interannual variability. It is seen that there is no synchronization in the seasonal monsoon category (normal/excess/deficit when analysed over large (India and regional (Odisha scales. The impact of El Niño, La Niña, and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD on the monsoon rainfall at both scales (large scale and regional scale is analysed and compared. The results show that the impact is much more for rainfall over India, but it has no such relation with the rainfall over Odisha. It is also observed that there is a positive (negative relation of the IOD with the seasonal monsoon rainfall variability over Odisha (India. The correlation between the IAV of monsoon rainfall between the large scale and regional scale was found to be 0.46 with a phase synchronization of 63%. IAV on a sub-regional scale is also presented.

  18. The Onset of the Monsoon over the Bay of Bengal: The Year-to-Year Variations

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YU Wei-Dong; LI Kui-Ping; SHI Jian-Wei; LIU Lin; WANG Hui-Wu; LIU Yan-Liang

    2012-01-01

    In situ buoy observation data spanning four years (2008-2011) were used to demonstrate the year-to-year variations of the monsoon onset processes in the Bay of Bengal (BOB). A significant early (late) monsoon onset event in 2009 (2010) was analyzed in detail. It is found that the year-to-year variations of monsoon onset can be attributed to either the interannual variability in the BoB SST or the irregular activities of the intra-seasonal oscillation (ISO). This finding raises concern over the potential difficulties in simulating or predicting the monsoon onset in the BoB region. This uncertainty largely comes from the unsatisfactory model behavior at the intra-seasonal time scale.

  19. Extreme precipitation event over North China in August 2010: observations, monthly forecasting, and link to intra-seasonal variability of the Silk-Road wave-train across Eurasia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orsolini, Yvan; Zhang, Ling; Peters, Dieter; Fraedrich, Klaus

    2014-05-01

    Forecast of regional precipitation events at the sub-seasonal timescale remains a big challenge for operational global prediction systems. Over the Far East in summer, climate and precipitation are strongly influenced by the fluctuating western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) and strong precipitation is often associated with southeasterly low-level wind that brings moist-laden air from the southern China seas. The WPSH variability is partly influenced by quasi-stationary wave-trains propagating eastwards from Europe across Asia along the two westerly jets: the Silk-Road wave-train along the Asian jet at mid-latitudes and, on a more northern route, the polar wave-train along the sub-polar jet. While the Silk-Road wave-train appears as a robust, internal mode of variability in seasonal predictions models, its predictability is very low on the sub-seasonal to seasonal time scale. A case in point is the unusual summer of 2010, when China experienced its worst seasonal flooding for a decade, triggered by unusually prolonged and severe monsoonal rains. In addition that summer was also characterized by record-breaking heat wave over Eastern Europe and Russia as well as catastrophic monsoonal floods in Pakistan 2010. The impact of the latter circulation anomalies on the precipitation further east over China, has been little explored. Here, we examine the role and the actual predictability of the Silk-Road wave-train, and its impact on precipitation over Northeastern China throughout August 2010, using the high-resolution IFS forecast model of ECMWF, realistic initialized and run in an ensemble mode. We demonstrate that the forecast failure with regard to flooding and extreme precipitation over Northeastern China in August 2010 is linked to the failure to represent intra-seasonal variations of the Silk-Road wave-train and the associated intensification of the WPSH.

  20. Observed variability of sea surface salinity and thermal inversions in the Lakshadweep Sea during contrast monsoons

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Gopalakrishna, V.V.; Johnson, Z.; Salgaonkar, G.; Nisha, K.; Rajan, C.K.; Rao, R.R.

    The sea surface salinity (SSS) of the Lakshadweep Sea (LS) shows large seasonal variability due to horizontal advection of low (high) salinity waters from south (north) during winter (summer) monsoon. The measurements made in the LS during...

  1. The First Pan-WCRP Workshop on Monsoon Climate Systems: Toward Better Prediction of the Monsoons

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sperber, K R; Yasunari, T

    2005-07-27

    In 2004 the Joint Scientific Committee (JSC) that provides scientific guidance to the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) requested an assessment of (1) WCRP monsoon related activities and (2) the range of available observations and analyses in monsoon regions. The purpose of the assessment was to (a) define the essential elements of a pan-WCRP monsoon modeling strategy, (b) identify the procedures for producing this strategy, and (c) promote improvements in monsoon observations and analyses with a view toward their adequacy, and addressing any undue redundancy or duplication. As such, the WCRP sponsored the ''1st Pan-WCRP Workshop on Monsoon Climate Systems: Toward Better Prediction of the Monsoons'' at the University of California, Irvine, CA, USA from 15-17 June 2005. Experts from the two WCRP programs directly relevant to monsoon studies, the Climate Variability and Predictability Programme (CLIVAR) and the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX), gathered to assess the current understanding of the fundamental physical processes governing monsoon variability and to highlight outstanding problems in simulating the monsoon that can be tackled through enhanced cooperation between CLIVAR and GEWEX. The agenda with links to the presentations can be found at: http://www.clivar.org/organization/aamon/WCRPmonsoonWS/agenda.htm. Scientific motivation for a joint CLIVAR-GEWEX approach to investigating monsoons includes the potential for improved medium-range to seasonal prediction through better simulation of intraseasonal (30-60 day) oscillations (ISO's). ISO's are important for the onset of monsoons, as well as the development of active and break periods of rainfall during the monsoon season. Foreknowledge of the active and break phases of the monsoon is important for crop selection, the determination of planting times and mitigation of potential flooding and short-term drought. With a few exceptions simulations of ISO are

  2. Aerosol and rainfall variability over the Indian monsoon region. Distributions, trends and coupling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gautam, R. [Maryland Univ., Baltimore County, MD (United States). Goddard Earth Science and Technology Center; NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD (United States). Lab. for Atmospheres; Hsu, N.C.; Lau, K.M. [NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD (United States). Lab. for Atmospheres; Kafatos, M. [Chapman Univ., Orange, CA (United States). Center of Excellence in Earth Observing

    2009-07-01

    Aerosol solar absorption over the Indian monsoon region has a potential role of modulating the monsoon circulation and rainfall distribution as suggested by recent studies based on model simulations. Prior to the onset of the monsoon, northern India is influenced by significant dust transport that constitutes the bulk of the regional aerosol loading over the Gangetic-Himalayan region. In this paper, a multi-sensor characterization of the increasing pre-monsoon aerosol loading over northern India, in terms of their spatial, temporal and vertical distribution is presented. Aerosol transport from the northwestern arid regions into the Indo-Gangetic Plains and over the foothills of the Himalayas is found to be vertically extended to elevated altitudes (up to 5 km) as observed from the space-borne lidar measurements (CALIPSO). In relation with the enhanced pre-monsoon aerosol loading and the associated solar absorption effects on tropospheric temperature anomalies, this paper investigates the monsoon rainfall variability over India in recent past decades from an observational viewpoint. It is found that the early summer monsoon rainfall over India is on the rise since 1950s, as indicated by historical rainfall data, with over 20% increase for the period 1950-2004. This large sustained increase in the early summer rainfall is led by the observed strengthening of the pre-monsoon tropospheric land-sea thermal gradient over the Indian monsoon region as indicated by microwave satellite measurements (MSU) of tropospheric temperatures from 1979-2007. Combined analysis of changes in tropospheric temperatures and summer monsoon rainfall in the past three decades, suggest a future possibility of an emerging rainfall pattern of a wetter monsoon over South Asia in early summer followed by a drier period. (orig.)

  3. Observed intraseasonal and seasonal variability of the West India coastal current on the continental slope.

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Amol, P.; Shankar, D.; Fernando, V.; Mukherjee, A.; Aparna, S.G.; Fernandes, R.; Michael, G.S.; Khalap, S.T.; Satelkar, N.P.; Agarvadekar, Y.; Gaonkar, M.G.; Tari, A.P.; Kankonkar, A.; Vernekar, S.

    between the Arabian Sea, a concentration basin, and the Bay of Bengal, a dilution basin (Jensen 2001; Han et al. 2001) and plays a major role in the region’s climate (see, for example, the reviews by Schott and McCreary 2001; Schott et al. 2009). The WICC... to the regional climate and marine living resources imply that it is important to be able to describe its variability and understand what causes the observed variability. In the rest of this introduction, we review our current state of knowledge of the WICC. We...

  4. Spatial monsoon variability with respect to NAO and SO

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    S B Kakade; S S Dugam

    2006-10-01

    In this paper, the simultaneous effect of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Southern Oscillation (SO) on monsoon rainfall over different homogeneous regions/subdivisions of India is studied. The simultaneous effect of both NAO and SO on Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) is more important than their individual impact because both the oscillations exist simultaneously throughout the year. To represent the simultaneous impact of NAO and SO, an index called effective strength index (ESI) has been defined on the basis of monthly NAO and SO indices. The variation in the tendency of ESI from January through April has been analyzed and reveals that when this tendency is decreasing, then the ESI value throughout the monsoon season (June-September) of the year remains negative and vice versa. This study further suggests that during the negative phase of ESI tendency, almost all subdivisions of India show above-normal rainfall and vice versa. The correlation analysis indicates that the ESI-tendency is showing an inverse and statistically significant relationship with rainfall over 14 subdivisions of India. Area wise, about 50% of the total area of India shows statistically significant association. Moreover, the ESI-tendency shows a significant relationship with rainfall over north west India, west central India, central north east India, peninsular India and India as a whole. Thus, ESI-tendency can be used as a precursor for the prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall on a smaller spatial scale.

  5. Intraseasonal Variability of δ18O of Precipitation in The Indonesia Maritime Continent

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belgaman, H. A.; Ichiyanagi, K.; Tanoue, M.; Suwarman, R.; Yoshimura, K.; Mori, S.; Yamanaka, M. D.; Kurita, N.; Syamsudin, F.

    2014-12-01

    The Indonesian maritime continent (IMC) consists of many islands in a warm pool of sea water and is located between two great oceans—the Pacific Ocean and Indian Ocean, and two major continents—the Asian and Australian continents. This tropical region also influenced by many regional and local climate and weather phenomenon which causes high spatial and temporal rainfall variability. These factors may produce unique variability of isotopic precipitation. The isotopic content (d18O and dD) in precipitation have been known to have important role for reconstructing the atmospheric circulation, hydrological cycle, and paleoclimate. Using daily data from six observation station across the IMC (Bukit tinggi, Jambi, Denpasar, Makasar, Manado, and Palau Island), the variability of δ18O was explored. Observation times for each station were different. Bukit Tinggi (GAW) was from Jan. 2001 - Mar. 2010, Jambi (JMB) was from Apr. 2001 - Dec. 2005, Denpasar (DPS), Makassar (MKS), Manado (MND) were from Nov. 2002 - Mar. 2010, and Palau Island (PLL) was from Dec. 2001 - May 2007. Daily average value of δ18O were -7.57‰, -5.41‰, -3.15‰, -6.12‰, -5.49‰ and -4.26‰ for GAW, JMB, DPS, MKS, MND and PLL respectively. Daily value of δ18O in GAW has the lowest value compare with the other station was because the location of GAW station located at high altitude. High correlation of variability of δ18O and Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) was observed at western part of the IMC (GAW and JMB), and northern part of the IMC (MKS, MND, and PLL), meanwhile δ18O variability at DPS was less correlated with MJO compare with other stations. Preliminary result from Color Moisture Analysis (CMA) model revealed that precipitable water at GAW and JMB stations was mostly occupied by water vapor evaporated from the Indian Ocean. However, precipitable water at other stations was mostly composed of water vapor evaporated from the Java Sea and the Pacific Ocean. These findings indicate

  6. History and variability of East Asian monsoon climate since the late Miocene

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2010-01-01

    @@ The variability and dynamic mechanism of the East Asian monsoon climate is a major scientific puzzle in the exploration of global change.As early as in the late 1990s,a research team led by Prof.AN Zhisheng from the CAS Institute of Earth Environment started their work in this topic,with an objective of improving the hypothesis of monsoon-controlled East Asian environment and advancing the basic studies of past global changes in eastern Asia.

  7. Response of monsoon variability in Himalayas to global warming

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2002-01-01

    Reconstructed annual net accumulation from the Dasuopu ice core recovered in Himalayas, with a good correlation to Indian monsoon, reflects a major precipitation trend in central Himalayas. The Dasuopu accumulation (DSP An) also shows a strong correlation to the Northern Hemispheric temperature. Generally, as the Northern Hemispheric temperature increases by 0.1 K, the accumulation decreases by about 90 mm and vise versa. Under the condition of global warming, especially since 1920, the Northern Hemispheric mean temperature has increased by about 0.5 K, whereas accumulation in Dasuopu ice core has decreased by about 450 mm. According to the relationship between accumulation and temperature, a scenario prediction of monsoon rainfall in central Himalayas is made.

  8. Links between Indo-Pacific climate variability and drought in the Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ummenhofer, Caroline C.; D'Arrigo, Rosanne D.; Anchukaitis, Kevin J.; Buckley, Brendan M.; Cook, Edward R.

    2013-03-01

    Drought patterns across monsoon and temperate Asia over the period 1877-2005 are linked to Indo-Pacific climate variability associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). Using the Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas (MADA) composed of a high-resolution network of hydroclimatically sensitive tree-ring records with a focus on the June-August months, spatial drought patterns during El Niño and IOD events are assessed as to their agreement with an instrumental drought index and consistency in the drought response amongst ENSO/IOD events. Spatial characteristics in drought patterns are related to regional climate anomalies over the Indo-Pacific basin, using reanalysis products, including changes in the Asian monsoon systems, zonal Walker circulation, moisture fluxes, and precipitation. A weakening of the monsoon circulation over the Indian subcontinent and Southeast Asia during El Niño events, along with anomalous subsidence over monsoon Asia and reduced moisture flux, is reflected in anomalous drought conditions over India, Southeast Asia and Indonesia. When an IOD event co-occurs with an El Niño, severe drought conditions identified in the MADA for Southeast Asia, Indonesia, eastern China and central Asia are associated with a weakened South Asian monsoon, reduced moisture flux over China, and anomalous divergent flow and subsidence over Indonesia. Insights into the relative influences of Pacific and Indian Ocean variability for Asian monsoon climate on interannual to decadal and longer timescales, as recorded in the MADA, provide a useful tool for assessing long-term changes in the characteristics of Asian monsoon droughts in the context of Indo-Pacific climate variability.

  9. Effect of climate change on seasonal monsoon in Asia and its impact on the variability of monsoon rainfall in Southeast Asia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yen Yi Loo

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Global warming and climate change is one of the most extensively researched and discussed topical issues affecting the environment. Although there are enough historical evidence to support the theory that climate change is a natural phenomenon, many research scientists are widely in agreement that the increase in temperature in the 20th century is anthropologically related. The associated effects are the variability of rainfall and cyclonic patterns that are being observed globally. In Southeast Asia the link between global warming and the seasonal atmospheric flow during the monsoon seasons shows varying degree of fuzziness. This study investigates the impact of climate change on the seasonality of monsoon Asia and its effect on the variability of monsoon rainfall in Southeast Asia. The comparison of decadal variation of precipitation and temperature anomalies before the 1970s found general increases which were mostly varying. But beyond the 1970s, global precipitation anomalous showed increases that almost corresponded with increases in global temperature anomalies for the same period. There are frequent changes and a shift westward of the Indian summer monsoon. Although precipitation is observed to be 70% below normal levels, in some areas the topography affects the intensity of rainfall. These shifting phenomenon of other monsoon season in the region are impacting on the variability of rainfall and the onset of monsoons in Southeast Asia and is predicted to delay for 15 days the onset of the monsoon in the future. The variability of monsoon rainfall in the SEA region is observed to be decadal and the frequency and intensity of intermittent flooding of some areas during the monsoon season have serious consequences on the human, financial, infrastructure and food security of the region.

  10. Effect of climate change on seasonal monsoon in Asia and its impact on the variability of monsoon rainfall in Southeast Asia

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yen Yi Loo; Lawal Billa; Ajit Singh

    2015-01-01

    Global warming and climate change is one of the most extensively researched and discussed topical issues affecting the environment. Although there are enough historical evidence to support the theory that climate change is a natural phenomenon, many research scientists are widely in agreement that the increase in temperature in the 20th century is anthropologically related. The associated effects are the variability of rainfall and cyclonic patterns that are being observed globally. In Southeast Asia the link between global warming and the seasonal atmospheric flow during the monsoon seasons shows varying degree of fuzziness. This study investigates the impact of climate change on the seasonality of monsoon Asia and its effect on the variability of monsoon rainfall in Southeast Asia. The comparison of decadal variation of precipitation and temperature anomalies before the 1970s found general increases which were mostly varying. But beyond the 1970s, global precipitation anomalous showed increases that almost corresponded with increases in global temperature anomalies for the same period. There are frequent changes and a shift westward of the Indian summer monsoon. Although precipitation is observed to be 70%below normal levels, in some areas the topography affects the intensity of rainfall. These shifting phenomenon of other monsoon season in the region are impacting on the variability of rainfall and the onset of monsoons in Southeast Asia and is predicted to delay for 15 days the onset of the monsoon in the future. The variability of monsoon rainfall in the SEA region is observed to be decadal and the frequency and intensity of intermittent flooding of some areas during the monsoon season have serious consequences on the human, financial, infrastructure and food security of the region.

  11. Simulation of the Indian monsoon and its variability during the last millennium

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Polanski

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available The general circulation model ECHAM5 has been used to simulate the Indian monsoon and its variability during the Medieval Warm Period (MWP; 900–1100 AD, the Little Ice Age (LIA; 1515–1715 AD and for recent climate (REC; 1800–2000 AD. The focus is on the analysis of external drivers and internal feedbacks leading to extreme rainfall events over India from interannual to multidecadal time scale. An evaluation of spatiotemporal monsoon patterns with present-day observation data is in agreement with other state-of-the-art monsoon modeling studies. The simulated monsoon intensity on multidecadal time scale is weakened (enhanced in summer (winter due to colder (warmer SSTs in the Indian Ocean. Variations in solar insolation are the main drivers for these SST anomalies, verified by very strong temporal anticorrelations between Total Solar Irradiance and All-India-Monsoon-Rainfall in summer monsoon months. The external solar forcing is coupled and overlain by internal climate modes of the ocean (ENSO and IOD with asynchronous intensities and lengths of periods.

    In addition, the model simulations have been compared with a relative moisture index derived from paleoclimatic reconstructions based on various proxies and archives in India. In this context, the Lonar record in Central India has been highlighted and evaluated the first time. The simulated relative annual rainfall anomalies in comparison to present-day climate are in agreement (disagreement with the reconstructed moisture index for MWP (LIA climate.

    In order to investigate the interannual monsoon variability with respect to monsoon failures, dry summer monsoon composites for 30-yr-long periods of MWP, LIA and REC have been further analysed. Within dry years of LIA, the summer rainfall over India and surrounding oceans is less than in MWP indicating stronger drying conditions due to a stronger summer solar insolation forcing coupled with variations in ENSO. To quantify the

  12. The South American monsoon variability over the last millennium in climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rojas, Maisa; Arias, Paola A.; Flores-Aqueveque, Valentina; Seth, Anji; Vuille, Mathias

    2016-08-01

    In this paper we assess South American monsoon system (SAMS) variability in the last millennium as depicted by global coupled climate model simulations. High-resolution proxy records for the South American monsoon over this period show a coherent regional picture of a weak monsoon during the Medieval Climate Anomaly and a stronger monsoon during the Little Ice Age (LIA). Due to the small external forcing during the past 1000 years, model simulations do not show very strong temperature anomalies over these two specific periods, which in turn do not translate into clear precipitation anomalies, in contrast with the rainfall reconstructions in South America. Therefore, we used an ad hoc definition of these two periods for each model simulation in order to account for model-specific signals. Thereby, several coherent large-scale atmospheric circulation anomalies are identified. The models feature a stronger monsoon during the LIA associated with (i) an enhancement of the rising motion in the SAMS domain in austral summer; (ii) a stronger monsoon-related upper-tropospheric anticyclone; (iii) activation of the South American dipole, which results in a poleward shift of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone; and (iv) a weaker upper-level subtropical jet over South America. The diagnosed changes provide important insights into the mechanisms of these climate anomalies over South America during the past millennium.

  13. The South American Monsoon Variability over the Last Millennium in CMIP5/PMIP3 simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Rojas

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we assess South American Monsoon System (SAMS variability throughout the Last Millennium as depicted by the Coupled Modelling Intercomparison Project version 5/Paleo Modelling Intercomparison Project version 3 (CMIP5/PMIP3 simulations. High-resolution proxy records for the South American monsoon over this period show a coherent regional picture of a weak monsoon during the Medieval Climate Anomaly period and a stronger monsoon during the Little Ice Age (LIA. Due to the small forcing during the past 1000 years, CMIP5/PMIP3 model simulations do not show very strong temperature anomalies over these two specific periods, which in turn do not translate into clear precipitation anomalies, as suggested by rainfall reconstructions in South America. However, with an ad-hoc definition of these two periods for each model simulation, several coherent large-scale atmospheric circulation anomalies were identified. The models feature a stronger Monsoon during the LIA associated with: (i an enhancement of the rising motion in the SAMS domain in austral summer, (ii a stronger monsoon-related upper-troposphere anticyclone, (iii activation of the South American dipole, which results to a certain extent in a poleward shift in the South Atlantic Convergence Zone and (iv a weaker upper-level sub tropical jet over South America, this providing important insights into the mechanisms of these climate anomalies over South America during the past millennium.

  14. Cyclone trends constrain monsoon variability during Late Oligocene sea level highstands (Kachchh Basin, NW India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Reuter

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Important concerns about the consequences of climate change for India are the potential impact on tropical cyclones and the monsoon. Herein we present a sequence of fossil shell beds from the shallow-marine Maniyara Fort Formation (Kachcch Basin as an indicator of tropical cyclone activity along the NW Indian coast during the Late Oligocene warming period (~27–24 Ma. Direct proxies providing information about the atmospheric circulation dynamics over the Indian subcontinent at this time are important since it corresponds to a major climate reorganization in Asia that ends up with the establishment of the modern Asian monsoon system in the Early Miocene. The vast shell concentrations comprise a mixture of parautochthonous and allochthonous assemblages indicating storm-generated sediment transport from deep to shallow water during third-order sea level highstands. Three distinct skeletal assemblages were distinguished each recording a relative storm wave base depth. (1 A shallow storm wave base is shown by nearshore mollusks, corals and Clypeaster echinoids; (2 an intermediate storm wave base depth is indicated by lepidocyclind foraminifers, Eupatagus echinoids and corallinaceans; and (3 a deep storm wave base is represented by an Amussiopecten–Schizaster echinoid assemblage. Vertical changes in these skeletal associations give evidence of gradually increasing tropical cyclone intensity in line with third-order sea level rise. The intensity of cyclones over the Arabian Sea is primarily linked to the strength of the Indian monsoon. Therefore and since the topographic boundary conditions for the Indian monsoon already existed in the Late Oligocene, the longer-term cyclone trends were interpreted to reflect monsoon variability during the initiation of the Asian monsoon system. Our results imply an active monsoon over the Eastern Tethys at ~26 Ma followed by a period of monsoon weakening during the peak of the Late Oligocene

  15. Cyclone trends constrain monsoon variability during late Oligocene sea level highstands (Kachchh Basin, NW India)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reuter, M.; Piller, W. E.; Harzhauser, M.; Kroh, A.

    2013-09-01

    Climate change has an unknown impact on tropical cyclones and the Asian monsoon. Herein we present a sequence of fossil shell beds from the shallow-marine Maniyara Fort Formation (Kachcch Basin) as a recorder of tropical cyclone activity along the NW Indian coast during the late Oligocene warming period (~ 27-24 Ma). Proxy data providing information about the atmospheric circulation dynamics over the Indian subcontinent at this time are important since it corresponds to a major climate reorganization in Asia that ends up with the establishment of the modern Asian monsoon system at the Oligocene-Miocene boundary. The vast shell concentrations are comprised of a mixture of parautochthonous and allochthonous assemblages indicating storm-generated sediment transport from deeper to shallow water during third-order sea level highstands. Three distinct skeletal assemblages were distinguished, each recording a relative storm wave base. (1) A shallow storm wave base is shown by nearshore molluscs, reef corals and Clypeaster echinoids; (2) an intermediate storm wave base depth is indicated by lepidocyclinid foraminifers, Eupatagus echinoids and corallinacean algae; and (3) a deep storm wave base is represented by an Amussiopecten bivalve-Schizaster echinoid assemblage. These wave base depth estimates were used for the reconstruction of long-term tropical storm intensity during the late Oligocene. The development and intensification of cyclones over the recent Arabian Sea is primarily limited by the atmospheric monsoon circulation and strength of the associated vertical wind shear. Therefore, since the topographic boundary conditions for the Indian monsoon already existed in the late Oligocene, the reconstructed long-term cyclone trends were interpreted to reflect monsoon variability during the initiation of the Asian monsoon system. Our results imply an active monsoon over the Eastern Tethys at ~ 26 Ma followed by a period of monsoon weakening during the peak of the late

  16. Cyclone trends constrain monsoon variability during late Oligocene sea level highstands (Kachchh Basin, NW India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Reuter

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Climate change has an unknown impact on tropical cyclones and the Asian monsoon. Herein we present a sequence of fossil shell beds from the shallow-marine Maniyara Fort Formation (Kachcch Basin as a recorder of tropical cyclone activity along the NW Indian coast during the late Oligocene warming period (~ 27–24 Ma. Proxy data providing information about the atmospheric circulation dynamics over the Indian subcontinent at this time are important since it corresponds to a major climate reorganization in Asia that ends up with the establishment of the modern Asian monsoon system at the Oligocene–Miocene boundary. The vast shell concentrations are comprised of a mixture of parautochthonous and allochthonous assemblages indicating storm-generated sediment transport from deeper to shallow water during third-order sea level highstands. Three distinct skeletal assemblages were distinguished, each recording a relative storm wave base. (1 A shallow storm wave base is shown by nearshore molluscs, reef corals and Clypeaster echinoids; (2 an intermediate storm wave base depth is indicated by lepidocyclinid foraminifers, Eupatagus echinoids and corallinacean algae; and (3 a deep storm wave base is represented by an Amussiopecten bivalve-Schizaster echinoid assemblage. These wave base depth estimates were used for the reconstruction of long-term tropical storm intensity during the late Oligocene. The development and intensification of cyclones over the recent Arabian Sea is primarily limited by the atmospheric monsoon circulation and strength of the associated vertical wind shear. Therefore, since the topographic boundary conditions for the Indian monsoon already existed in the late Oligocene, the reconstructed long-term cyclone trends were interpreted to reflect monsoon variability during the initiation of the Asian monsoon system. Our results imply an active monsoon over the Eastern Tethys at ~ 26 Ma followed by a period of monsoon weakening during the

  17. Influence of cosmic-ray variability on the monsoon rainfall and temperature

    CERN Document Server

    Badruddin,

    2014-01-01

    We study the role of galactic cosmic ray (GCR) variability in influencing the rainfall variability in Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) season. We find that on an average during 'drought' (low ISMR) periods in India, GCR flux is decreasing, and during 'flood' (high ISMR) periods, GCR flux is increasing. The results of our analysis suggest for a possibility that the decreasing GCR flux during the summer monsoon season in India may suppress the rainfall. On the other hand, increasing GCR flux may enhance the rainfall. We suspect that in addition to real environmental conditions, significant levitation/dispersion of low clouds and hence reduced possibility of collision/coalescence to form raindrops suppresses the rainfall during decreasing GCR flux in monsoon season. On the other hand, enhanced collision/coalescence efficiency during increasing GCR flux due to electrical effects may contribute to enhancing the rainfall. Based on the observations, we put forward the idea that, under suitable environmental con...

  18. North American Monsoon Variability from Instrumental and Tree-Ring Data: A Progress Report (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woodhouse, C. A.; Meko, D. M.; Touchan, R.; Leavitt, S. W.; Griffin, D.; Castro, C. L.; Ciancarelli, B.

    2009-12-01

    The main goal of this research project is to investigate the long-term variability of the North American Monsoon (NAM), both spatially and temporally, using instrumental data and paleoclimatic data from tree-ring widths and stable-carbon isotopes. The NAM has been the topic of much research in recent years and a great deal of progress has been made in improving our understanding of the NAM. However, questions remain about the long-term behavior of the monsoon, as well as its relationship to cool season climate and to large-scale circulation. In addition, it is unclear how the monsoon will respond to global warming as GCMs do not yet appear to adequately capture the monsoon system dynamics. This research project involves analyses of instrumental and paleoclimatic data to determine NAM spatial patterns in the U.S., relationships to large-scale atmospheric circulation drivers, and the nature of the NAM variability over past centuries. Paleoclimatic data will also be used to assess the skill of downscaled GCMs in replicating the range of NAM variability. The first step in this work has been to design and implement a sampling and analysis strategy for a network of tree-ring data that reflects summer moisture in the NAM region, informed by previous collections and analysis of instrumental data. Here we report on the results from our first year, focusing on three specific areas: 1) definition of dominant patterns of NAM variability using the standard precipitation index (SPI), and relationships to large-scale atmospheric circulation, 2) the tree-ring collection network and preliminary results, and 3) strategies for enhancing and extracting summer precipitation information from tree rings using partial ring widths and isotope analysis. Although our collections have included both the monsoon core region of southeastern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico, and areas at the fringe of the monsoon influence in the U.S, our initial focus is on the analysis of the collections for

  19. Differences and links between the East Asian and South Asian summer monsoon systems: Characteristics and Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Ronghui; Liu, Yong; Du, Zhencai; Chen, Jilong; Huangfu, Jingliang

    2017-10-01

    This paper analyzes the differences in the characteristics and spatio-temporal variabilities of summertime rainfall and water vapor transport between the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) systems. The results show obvious differences in summertime rainfall characteristics between these two monsoon systems. The summertime rainfall cloud systems of the EASM show a mixed stratiform and cumulus cloud system, while cumulus cloud dominates the SASM. These differences may be caused by differences in the vertical shear of zonal and meridional circulations and the convergence of water vapor transport fluxes. Moreover, the leading modes of the two systems' summertime rainfall anomalies also differ in terms of their spatiotemporal features on the interannual and interdecadal timescales. Nevertheless, several close links with respect to the spatiotemporal variabilities of summertime rainfall and water vapor transport exist between the two monsoon systems. The first modes of summertime rainfall in the SASM and EASM regions reveal a significant negative correlation on the interannual and the interdecadal timescales. This close relationship may be linked by a meridional teleconnection in the regressed summertime rainfall anomalies from India to North China through the southeastern part over the Tibetan Plateau, which we refer to as the South Asia/East Asia teleconnection pattern of Asian summer monsoon rainfall. The authors wish to dedicate this paper to Prof. Duzheng YE, and commemorate his 100th anniversary and his great contributions to the development of atmospheric dynamics.

  20. Consistent increase in Indian monsoon rainfall and its variability across CMIP-5 models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Menon

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The possibility of an impact of global warming on the Indian monsoon is of critical importance for the large population of this region. Future projections within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP-3 showed a wide range of trends with varying magnitude and sign across models. Here the Indian summer monsoon rainfall is evaluated in 20 CMIP-5 models for the period 1850 to 2100. In the new generation of climate models a consistent increase in seasonal mean rainfall during the summer monsoon periods arises. All models simulate stronger seasonal mean rainfall in the future compared to the historic period under the strongest warming scenario RCP-8.5. Increase in seasonal mean rainfall is the largest for the RCP-8.5 scenario compared to other RCPs. The interannual variability of the Indian monsoon rainfall also shows a consistent positive trend under unabated global warming. Since both the long-term increase in monsoon rainfall as well as the increase in interannual variability in the future is robust across a wide range of models, some confidence can be attributed to these projected trends.

  1. Subseasonal features of the Asian summer monsoon in the NCEP climate forecast system

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Song YANG; WEN Min; R Wayne HIGGINS

    2008-01-01

    The operational climate forecast system (CFS) of the US National Centers for Environmental Prediction provides climate predic-tions over the world, and CFS products are becoming an important source of information for regional climate predictions in many Asian countries where monsoon climate dominates. Recent studies have shown that, on monthly-to-seasonal time-scales, the CFS is highly skillful in simulating and predicting the variability of the Asian monsoon. The higher-frequency variability of the Asian summer monsoon in the CFS is analyzed, using output from a version with a spectral triangular truncation of 126 waves in horizon-tal and 64 sigma layers in vertical, focusing on synoptic, quasi-biweekly, and intraseasonal time-scales. The onset processes of different regional monsoon components were investigated within Asia. Although the CFS generally overestimates variability of mon-soon on these time-scales, it successfully captures many major features of the variance patterns, especially for the synoptic time-scale. The CFS also captures the timing of summer monsoon onsets over India and the Indo-China Peninsula. However, it encoun-ters difficulties in simulating the onset of the South China Sea monsoon. The success and failure of the CFS in simulating the onset of monsoon precipitation can also be seen from the associated features of simulated atmospheric circulation processes. Overall, the CFS is capable of simulating the synoptic-to-intraseasonal variability of the Asian summer monsoon with skills. As for seasonal-to-interannual time-scales shown previously, the model is expected to possess a potential for skillful predictions of the high-frequencyvariability of the Asian monsoon.

  2. Future projection of mean and variability of the Asian Summer Monsoon and Indian Ocean Climate systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Annamalai, H [IPRC, University of Hawaii

    2014-09-15

    The overall goal of this project is to assess the ability of the CMIP3/5 models to simulate the Indian-Ocean monsoon systems. The PI along with post-docs investigated research issues ranging from synoptic systems to long-term trends over the Asian monsoon region. The PI applied diagnostic tools such as moist static energy (MSE) to isolate: the moist and radiative processes responsible for extended monsoon breaks over South Asia, precursors in the ENSO-monsoon association, reasons for the drying tendency over South Asia and the possible effect on tropical Indian Ocean climate anomalies influencing certain aspects of ENSO characteristics. By diagnosing various observations and coupled model simulations, we developed working hypothesis and tested them by carrying out sensitivity experiments with both linear and nonlinear models. Possible physical and dynamical reasons for model sensitivities were deduced. On the teleconnection front, the ability of CMIP5 models in representing the monsoon-desert mechanism was examined recently. Further more, we have applied a suite of diagnostics and have performed an in depth analysis on CMIP5 integrations to isolate the possible reasons for the ENSO-monsoon linkage or lack thereof. The PI has collaborated with Dr. K.R. Sperber of PCMDI and other CLIVAR Asian-Australian monsoon panel members in understanding the ability of CMIP3/5 models in capturing monsoon and its spectrum of variability. The objective and process-based diagnostics aided in selecting models that best represent the present-day monsoon and its variability that are then employed for future projections. Two major highlights were an invitation to write a review on present understanding monsoons in a changing climate in Nature Climate Change, and identification of an east-west shift in observed monsoon rainfall (more rainfall over tropical western Pacific and drying tendency over South Asia) in the last six decades and attributing that shift to SST rise over the tropical

  3. Three centuries of Myanmar monsoon climate variability inferred from teak tree rings

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Arrigo, Rosanne; Palmer, Jonathan; Ummenhofer, Caroline C.; Kyaw, Nyi Nyi; Krusic, Paul

    2011-12-01

    Asian monsoon extremes critically impact much of the globe’s population. Key gaps in our understanding of monsoon climate remain due to sparse coverage of paleoclimatic information, despite intensified recent efforts. Here we describe a ring width chronology of teak, one of the first high-resolution proxy records for the nation of Myanmar. Based on 29 samples from 20 living trees and spanning from 1613-2009, this record, from the Maingtha forest reserve north of Mandalay, helps fill a substantial gap in spatial coverage of paleoclimatic records for monsoon Asia. Teak growth is positively correlated with rainfall and Palmer Drought Severity Index variability over Myanmar, during and prior to the May-September monsoon season (e.g., r = 0.38 with Yangon rainfall, 0.001, n 68). Importantly, this record also correlates significantly with larger-scale climate indices, including core Indian rainfall (23°N, 76°E a particularly sensitive index of the monsoon), and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The teak ring width value following the so-called 1997-98 El Niño of the Century suggests that this was one of the most severe droughts in the past ˜300 years in Myanmar. Evidence for past dry conditions inferred for Myanmar is consistent with tree-ring records of decadal megadroughts developed for Thailand and Vietnam. These results confirm the climate signature related to monsoon rainfall in the Myanmar teak record and the considerable potential for future development of climate-sensitive chronologies from Myanmar and the broader region of monsoon Asia.

  4. T-S variability and volume transport in the central Bay of Bengal during southwest monsoon

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Gopalakrishna, V.V.; Pednekar, S.M.; Murty, V.S.N.

    The variability of temperature and salinity along 11 degrees N and 12 degrees N sections in the Bay of Bengal during southwest monsoon months (July-September) was found to be large in the upper 200 m west of 83 degrees E and east of 90 degrees E...

  5. Recently studied sedimentary records from the eastern Arabian Sea: Implications to Holocene monsoonal variability

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Agnihotri, R.; Kurian, S.

    in an attempt to comprehend past monsoonal variability in Indian as well as global context are reviewed. We also focus upon different proxies used so far in the Arabian Sea, their fidelity, limitations and future scope of using novel proxies for a better...

  6. Intra- and inter-seasonal variability of nutrients in a tropical monsoonal estuary (Zuari, India).

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Anand, S.S.; Sardessai, S.; Muthukumar, C.; Mangalaa, K.R.; Sundar, D.; Parab, S.G.; DileepKumar, M.

    A study was conducted to understand the intra- and inter-seasonal variability of dissolved oxygen and nutrients in a tropical monsoon estuary (Zuari in Goa, India). We adopted a dual sampling approach with (a) daily or alternate day sampling at a...

  7. Indian monsoon variability in relation to Regional Pressure Index

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    S S Dugam; S B Kakade

    2003-12-01

    In this paper Regional Pressure Index (RPI) over the Indian region (20°N-40°N and 70°E-85°E) has been constructed for 101 years (1899-1999) on a monthly scale. The relationship of these indices was carried out with the Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (June-September) (ISMR) over the various homogeneous regions, for all the time scales. From the analysis it has been seen that RPI in the month of May is significantly associated with ISMR over various regions on all the scales. The relationship is statistically significant at 1% level. The study reveals that RPI in the month of May and January will be a new precursor for the long range forecasting of ISMR on the smaller spatial scale. On the decadal and climatological scale, winter and spring time RPI show a significant inverse relationship with the rainfall over the regions Peninsular India (PI) and North West India (NWI), while the association is direct with Central North East India (CNEI) and North East India (NEI). The relationship is significant at 0.1 and 1% level respectively.

  8. Large-scale overview of the summer monsoon over West Africa during the AMMA field experiment in 2006

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Janicot

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available The AMMA (African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis program is dedicated to providing a better understanding of the West African monsoon and its influence on the physical, chemical and biological environment regionally and globally, as well as relating variability of this monsoon system to issues of health, water resources, food security and demography for West African nations. Within this framework, an intensive field campaign took place during the summer of 2006 to better document specific processes and weather systems at various key stages of this monsoon season. This campaign was embedded within a longer observation period that documented the annual cycle of surface and atmospheric conditions between 2005 and 2007. The present paper provides a large and regional scale overview of the 2006 summer monsoon season, that includes consideration of of the convective activity, mean atmospheric circulation and synoptic/intraseasonal weather systems, oceanic and land surface conditions, continental hydrology, dust concentration and ozone distribution. The 2006 African summer monsoon was a near-normal rainy season except for a large-scale rainfall excess north of 15° N. This monsoon season was also characterized by a 10-day delayed onset compared to climatology, with convection becoming developed only after 10 July. This onset delay impacted the continental hydrology, soil moisture and vegetation dynamics as well as dust emission. More details of some less-well-known atmospheric features in the African monsoon at intraseasonal and synoptic scales are provided in order to promote future research in these areas.

  9. Large-scale overview of the summer monsoon over West Africa during the AMMA field experiment in 2006

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janicot, S.; Thorncroft, C. D.; Ali, A.; Asencio, N.; Berry, G.; Bock, O.; Bourles, B.; Caniaux, G.; Chauvin, F.; Deme, A.; Kergoat, L.; Lafore, J.-P.; Lavaysse, C.; Lebel, T.; Marticorena, B.; Mounier, F.; Nedelec, P.; Redelsperger, J.-L.; Ravegnani, F.; Reeves, C. E.; Roca, R.; de Rosnay, P.; Schlager, H.; Sultan, B.; Tomasini, M.; Ulanovsky, A.; Acmad Forecasters Team

    2008-09-01

    The AMMA (African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis) program is dedicated to providing a better understanding of the West African monsoon and its influence on the physical, chemical and biological environment regionally and globally, as well as relating variability of this monsoon system to issues of health, water resources, food security and demography for West African nations. Within this framework, an intensive field campaign took place during the summer of 2006 to better document specific processes and weather systems at various key stages of this monsoon season. This campaign was embedded within a longer observation period that documented the annual cycle of surface and atmospheric conditions between 2005 and 2007. The present paper provides a large and regional scale overview of the 2006 summer monsoon season, that includes consideration of of the convective activity, mean atmospheric circulation and synoptic/intraseasonal weather systems, oceanic and land surface conditions, continental hydrology, dust concentration and ozone distribution. The 2006 African summer monsoon was a near-normal rainy season except for a large-scale rainfall excess north of 15° N. This monsoon season was also characterized by a 10-day delayed onset compared to climatology, with convection becoming developed only after 10 July. This onset delay impacted the continental hydrology, soil moisture and vegetation dynamics as well as dust emission. More details of some less-well-known atmospheric features in the African monsoon at intraseasonal and synoptic scales are provided in order to promote future research in these areas.

  10. Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall: Implications of Contrasting Trends in the Spatial Variability of Means and Extremes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Subimal Ghosh

    Full Text Available India's agricultural output, economy, and societal well-being are strappingly dependent on the stability of summer monsoon rainfall, its variability and extremes. Spatial aggregate of intensity and frequency of extreme rainfall events over Central India are significantly increasing, while at local scale they are spatially non-uniform with increasing spatial variability. The reasons behind such increase in spatial variability of extremes are poorly understood and the trends in mean monsoon rainfall have been greatly overlooked. Here, by using multi-decadal gridded daily rainfall data over entire India, we show that the trend in spatial variability of mean monsoon rainfall is decreasing as exactly opposite to that of extremes. The spatial variability of extremes is attributed to the spatial variability of the convective rainfall component. Contrarily, the decrease in spatial variability of the mean rainfall over India poses a pertinent research question on the applicability of large scale inter-basin water transfer by river inter-linking to address the spatial variability of available water in India. We found a significant decrease in the monsoon rainfall over major water surplus river basins in India. Hydrological simulations using a Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC model also revealed that the water yield in surplus river basins is decreasing but it is increasing in deficit basins. These findings contradict the traditional notion of dry areas becoming drier and wet areas becoming wetter in response to climate change in India. This result also calls for a re-evaluation of planning for river inter-linking to supply water from surplus to deficit river basins.

  11. Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall: Implications of Contrasting Trends in the Spatial Variability of Means and Extremes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghosh, Subimal; Vittal, H; Sharma, Tarul; Karmakar, Subhankar; Kasiviswanathan, K S; Dhanesh, Y; Sudheer, K P; Gunthe, S S

    2016-01-01

    India's agricultural output, economy, and societal well-being are strappingly dependent on the stability of summer monsoon rainfall, its variability and extremes. Spatial aggregate of intensity and frequency of extreme rainfall events over Central India are significantly increasing, while at local scale they are spatially non-uniform with increasing spatial variability. The reasons behind such increase in spatial variability of extremes are poorly understood and the trends in mean monsoon rainfall have been greatly overlooked. Here, by using multi-decadal gridded daily rainfall data over entire India, we show that the trend in spatial variability of mean monsoon rainfall is decreasing as exactly opposite to that of extremes. The spatial variability of extremes is attributed to the spatial variability of the convective rainfall component. Contrarily, the decrease in spatial variability of the mean rainfall over India poses a pertinent research question on the applicability of large scale inter-basin water transfer by river inter-linking to address the spatial variability of available water in India. We found a significant decrease in the monsoon rainfall over major water surplus river basins in India. Hydrological simulations using a Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model also revealed that the water yield in surplus river basins is decreasing but it is increasing in deficit basins. These findings contradict the traditional notion of dry areas becoming drier and wet areas becoming wetter in response to climate change in India. This result also calls for a re-evaluation of planning for river inter-linking to supply water from surplus to deficit river basins.

  12. Meteorological fields variability over the Indian seas in pre and summer monsoon months during extreme monsoon seasons

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    U C Mohanty; R Bhatla; P V S Raju; O P Madan; A Sarkar

    2002-09-01

    In this study, the possible linkage between summer monsoon rainfall over India and surface meteorological fields (basic fields and heat budget components) over monsoon region (30° E-120°E, 30°S-30°N) during the pre-monsoon month of May and summer monsoon season (June to September) are examined. For this purpose, monthly surface meteorological fields anomaly are analyzed for 42 years (1958-1999) using reanalysis data of NCEP/NCAR (National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research). The statistical significance of the anomaly (difference) between the surplus and deficient monsoon years in the surface meteorological fields are also examined by Student's t-test at 95% confidence level. Significant negative anomalies of mean sea level pressure are observed over India, Arabian Sea and Arabian Peninsular in the pre-monsoon month of May and monsoon season. Significant positive anomalies in the zonal and meridional wind (at 2m) in the month of May are observed in the west Arabian Sea off Somali coast and for monsoon season it is in the central Arabian Sea that extends up to Somalia. Significant positive anomalies of the surface temperature and air temperature (at 2m) in the month of May are observed over north India and adjoining Pakistan and Afghanistan region. During monsoon season this region is replaced by significant negative anomalies. In the month of May, significant positive anomalies of cloud amount are observed over Somali coast, north Bay of Bengal and adjoining West Bengal and Bangladesh. During monsoon season, cloud amount shows positive anomalies over NW India and north Arabian Sea. There is overall reduction in the incoming shortwave radiation flux during surplus monsoon years. A higher magnitude of latent heat flux is also found in surplus monsoon years for the month of May as well as the monsoon season. The significant positive anomaly of latent heat flux in May, observed over southwest Arabian Sea, may be considered

  13. Characteristics, processes, and causes of the spatio-temporal variabilities of the East Asian monsoon system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Ronghui; Chen, Jilong; Wang, Lin; Lin, Zhongda

    2012-09-01

    Recent advances in the study of the characteristics, processes, and causes of spatio-temporal variabilities of the East Asian monsoon (EAM) system are reviewed in this paper. The understanding of the EAM system has improved in many aspects: the basic characteristics of horizontal and vertical structures, the annual cycle of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) system and the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) system, the characteristics of the spatio-temporal variabilities of the EASM system and the EAWM system, and especially the multiple modes of the EAM system and their spatio-temporal variabilities. Some new results have also been achieved in understanding the atmosphere-ocean interaction and atmosphere-land interaction processes that affect the variability of the EAM system. Based on recent studies, the EAM system can be seen as more than a circulation system, it can be viewed as an atmosphere-ocean-land coupled system, namely, the EAM climate system. In addition, further progress has been made in diagnosing the internal physical mechanisms of EAM climate system variability, especially regarding the characteristics and properties of the East Asia-Pacific (EAP) teleconnection over East Asia and the North Pacific, the "Silk Road" teleconnection along the westerly jet stream in the upper troposphere over the Asian continent, and the dynamical effects of quasi-stationary planetary wave activity on EAM system variability. At the end of the paper, some scientific problems regarding understanding the EAM system variability are proposed for further study.

  14. Intraseasonal variations of the tropical easterly jet during the 1979 northern summer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Tsing-Chang; Yen, Ming-Cheng

    1991-05-01

    Numerous studies have investigated the intraseasonal oscillation of various elements of the Indian monsoon, but the tropical easterly jet has been neglected. The 1979 summer data generated by the FGG III-b analysis of the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts were used to examine the intraseasonal oscillation of this jet. It was found that the jet possesses a distinctive intraseasonal oscillation south of its core. Previous studies suggested that the temporal fluctuation of this jet may be related through cumulus convection to that of the low-level Indian monsoon circulation. It was demonstrated by a streamfunction budget analysis that the intraseasonal oscillation of the tropical easterly jet south of its core is primarily induced by the eastward-propagating intraseasonal oscillation of the planetary-scale divergent circulation.

  15. Himalayan River Terraces as A Landscape Response to Quaternary Summer Monsoon Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jonell, T. N.; Clift, P. D.

    2013-12-01

    In order to interpret marine sedimentary archives as records of the erosional response to Asian monsoon variability, we must first recognize how transport processes affect the storage and release of sediment to the ocean. River terraces, such as found in the Greater Himalaya, provide a pivotal role in the source-to-sink story, because this is where sediment storage occurs and is likely modulated. We investigate the role that climate plays in controlling erosion and sediment flux to the Indus delta and fan by looking at the Indus River system, which is dominated by the strong forcing of the Asian monsoon, as well as winter Westerly winds. Paleoceanographic, speleothem, and lacustrine records indicate that summer monsoon intensity was strong from 29 to 37 ka, decreased after that time until ~16 ka, reached maximum intensity from 8 to 10 ka, and then weakened until ~3 ka. Some lacustrine records, however, indicate a more complex pattern of monsoon variability in the Greater Himalaya, which contrasts with monsoonal forcing in central India. This disagreement suggests that floodplains of major river systems may not experience the same climatic conditions as their mountain sources, resulting in contrasting landscape responses to climate change. High altitude river valleys, at least north ofthe Greater Himalaya, appear to be sensitive to monsoon strength because they lie on the periphery of the present rainfall maximum, in the Himalayan rain shadow. These steep river valleys may be affected by landslide damming during periods of increase moisture transport and strong monsoonal precipitation, where damming provides sediment storage through valley-filling and later sediment release through gradual incision or dam-bursting. The Zanskar River, a major tributary to the upper Indus River, provides a record of the erosional response of mountain river valleys to these extreme phases through river terracing. New OSL ages from alluvial terraces indicate reworking of sediment and

  16. A prominent pattern of year-to-year variability in Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mishra, Vimal; Smoliak, Brian V; Lettenmaier, Dennis P; Wallace, John M

    2012-05-08

    The dominant patterns of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) and their relationships with the sea surface temperature and 850-hPa wind fields are examined using gridded datasets from 1900 on. The two leading empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) of ISMR over India are used as basis functions for elucidating these relationships. EOF1 is highly correlated with all India rainfall and El Niño-Southern Oscillation indices. EOF2 involves rainfall anomalies of opposing polarity over the Gangetic Plain and peninsular India. The spatial pattern of the trends in ISMR from 1950 on shows drying over the Gangetic Plain projects onto EOF2, with an expansion coefficient that exhibits a pronounced trend during this period. EOF2 is coupled with the dominant pattern of sea surface temperature variability over the Indian Ocean sector, which involves in-phase fluctuations over the Arabian Sea, the Bay of Bengal, and the South China Sea, and it is correlated with the previous winter's El Niño-Southern Oscillation indices. The circulation anomalies observed in association with fluctuations in the time-varying indices of EOF1 and EOF2 both involve distortions of the low-level monsoon flow. EOF1 in its positive polarity represents a southward deflection of moist, westerly monsoon flow from the Arabian Sea across India, resulting in a smaller flux of moisture to the Himalayas. EOF2 in its positive polarity represents a weakening of the monsoon trough over northeastern India and the westerly monsoon flow across southern India, reminiscent of the circulation anomalies observed during break periods within the monsoon season.

  17. An assessment of Indian monsoon seasonal forecasts and mechanisms underlying monsoon interannual variability in the Met Office GloSea5-GC2 system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Stephanie J.; Turner, Andrew; Woolnough, Steven; Martin, Gill; MacLachlan, Craig

    2017-03-01

    We assess Indian summer monsoon seasonal forecasts in GloSea5-GC2, the Met Office fully coupled subseasonal to seasonal ensemble forecasting system. Using several metrics, GloSea5-GC2 shows similar skill to other state-of-the-art seasonal forecast systems. The prediction skill of the large-scale South Asian monsoon circulation is higher than that of Indian monsoon rainfall. Using multiple linear regression analysis we evaluate relationships between Indian monsoon rainfall and five possible drivers of monsoon interannual variability. Over the time period studied (1992-2011), the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) are the most important of these drivers in both observations and GloSea5-GC2. Our analysis indicates that ENSO and its teleconnection with Indian rainfall are well represented in GloSea5-GC2. However, the relationship between the IOD and Indian rainfall anomalies is too weak in GloSea5-GC2, which may be limiting the prediction skill of the local monsoon circulation and Indian rainfall. We show that this weak relationship likely results from a coupled mean state bias that limits the impact of anomalous wind forcing on SST variability, resulting in erroneous IOD SST anomalies. Known difficulties in representing convective precipitation over India may also play a role. Since Indian rainfall responds weakly to the IOD, it responds more consistently to ENSO than in observations. Our assessment identifies specific coupled biases that are likely limiting GloSea5-GC2 Indian summer monsoon seasonal prediction skill, providing targets for model improvement.

  18. An assessment of Indian monsoon seasonal forecasts and mechanisms underlying monsoon interannual variability in the Met Office GloSea5-GC2 system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Stephanie J.; Turner, Andrew; Woolnough, Steven; Martin, Gill; MacLachlan, Craig

    2016-06-01

    We assess Indian summer monsoon seasonal forecasts in GloSea5-GC2, the Met Office fully coupled subseasonal to seasonal ensemble forecasting system. Using several metrics, GloSea5-GC2 shows similar skill to other state-of-the-art seasonal forecast systems. The prediction skill of the large-scale South Asian monsoon circulation is higher than that of Indian monsoon rainfall. Using multiple linear regression analysis we evaluate relationships between Indian monsoon rainfall and five possible drivers of monsoon interannual variability. Over the time period studied (1992-2011), the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) are the most important of these drivers in both observations and GloSea5-GC2. Our analysis indicates that ENSO and its teleconnection with Indian rainfall are well represented in GloSea5-GC2. However, the relationship between the IOD and Indian rainfall anomalies is too weak in GloSea5-GC2, which may be limiting the prediction skill of the local monsoon circulation and Indian rainfall. We show that this weak relationship likely results from a coupled mean state bias that limits the impact of anomalous wind forcing on SST variability, resulting in erroneous IOD SST anomalies. Known difficulties in representing convective precipitation over India may also play a role. Since Indian rainfall responds weakly to the IOD, it responds more consistently to ENSO than in observations. Our assessment identifies specific coupled biases that are likely limiting GloSea5-GC2 Indian summer monsoon seasonal prediction skill, providing targets for model improvement.

  19. Reconstruction of Last Glacial to early Holocene monsoon variability from relict lake sediments of the Higher Central Himalaya, Uttrakhand, India

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Juyal, N.; Pant, R.K.; Basavaiah, N.

    2009-01-01

    Proglacial lake sediments at Goting in the Higher Central Himalaya were analyzed to reconstruct the summer monsoon variability during the Last Glacial to early Holocene. Sedimentary structures, high resolution mineral magnetic and geochemical data suggest that the lacustrine environment experienced...... fluctuating monsoonal conditions. Optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating indicates that the lake sedimentation occurred before 25 ka and continued after 13 ka. During this period, Goting basin witnessed moderate to strengthened monsoon conditions around 25 ka, 23.5 ka–22.5 ka, 22 ka–18 ka, 17 ka–16...... correspondence at the millennial scale between our data and that of continental and marine records from the Indian sub-continent suggests that Goting basin responded to periods of strengthened monsoon during the Last Glacial to early Holocene. We attribute the millennial scale monsoon variability to climatic...

  20. Two millennia of Mesoamerican monsoon variability driven by Pacific and Atlantic synergistic forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lachniet, Matthew S.; Asmerom, Yemane; Polyak, Victor; Bernal, Juan Pablo

    2017-01-01

    The drivers of Mesoamerican monsoon variability over the last two millennia remain poorly known because of a lack of precisely-dated and climate-calibrated proxy records. Here, we present a new high resolution (∼2 yrs) and precisely-dated (± 4 yr) wet season hydroclimate reconstruction for the Mesoamerican sector of the North American Monsoon over the past 2250 years based on two aragonite stalagmites from southwestern Mexico which replicate oxygen isotope variations over the 950-1950 CE interval. The reconstruction is quantitatively calibrated to instrumental rainfall variations in the Basin of Mexico. Comparisons to proxy indices of ocean-atmosphere circulation show a synergistic forcing by the North Atlantic and El Niño/Southern Oscillations, whereby monsoon strengthening coincided with a La Niña-like mode and a negative North Atlantic Oscillation, and vice versa for droughts. Our data suggest that weak monsoon intervals are associated with a strong North Atlantic subtropical high pressure system and a weak Intertropical convergence zone in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Population expansions at three major highland Mexico civilization of Teotihuacan, Tula, and Aztec Tenochtitlan were all associated with drought to pluvial transitions, suggesting that urban population growth was favored by increasing freshwater availability in the semi-arid Mexican highlands, and that this hydroclimatic change was controlled by Pacific and Atlantic Ocean forcing.

  1. Sampling variability and the changing ENSO-monsoon relationship

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cash, Benjamin A.; Barimalala, Rondrotiana; Kinter, James L.; Altshuler, Eric L.; Fennessy, Michael J.; Manganello, Julia V.; Molteni, Franco; Towers, Peter; Vitart, Frederic

    2016-08-01

    The impact of sampling variability on the correlation between all-India rainfall (AIR) and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation is investigated in a large ensemble of seasonal climate simulations made using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting Ensemble Prediction System at T319 (64 km). The analyzed runs consist of 51 ensemble members initialized each May 1 for the period 1980-2011 and integrated for 7 months. 10,000 pairs of 32-year timeseries of June-September (JJAS) mean AIR and NINO3 indices are created from this database by randomly drawing one of the 51 ensemble members for each year. The correlation between each pair of AIR and NINO3 series is then calculated, generating a distribution of AIR-NINO3 correlation values. The model is reinitialized with observations each May 1 and thus all members are drawn from the same background state by construction and any differences in correlation are attributable to sampling variability. The spread in the calculated correlation values and the differences between 32-year segments are sufficient to explain the observed variations in AIR-NINO3 correlation since the beginning of the 1900s, including the sharp decrease in correlation strength since the late 1970s. Sampling variability thus represents a strong null hypothesis for the observed changes and one that cannot be rejected at the 95 % level based on our simulations.

  2. The Thermocline Layer and Chlorophyll-a Concentration Variability during Southeast Monsoon in the Banda Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pusparini, Nikita; Prasetyo, Budi; Ambariyanto; Widowati, Ita

    2017-02-01

    Thermocline layer and chlorophyll-a concentration can be used to investigate the upwelling region. This investigation is focused in the Banda Sea because the upwelling event in this area is quite large and has a longer upwelling duration than other waters in Indonesia. In addition, Banda Sea is also influenced by climatic factors such as monsoon. The aim of this research is to determine the validation of secondary data (from satellite imagery data and model) and in situ observation data (from research cruise) and to determine the variability of thermocline layer and chlorophyll-a concentration during Southeast Monsoon in the Banda Sea. The data used in this study were chlorophyll-a concentration, seawater vertical temperature at depths 0-400 meters, and sea surface temperature from remote sensing and in situ data. Spatial and temporal analysis of all parameters was conducted by quantitative descriptive method. The results showed that the variability of thermocline layer and the chlorophyll-a distribution were strongly related to seasonal pattern. In most cases, the estimates of thermocline layer and chlorophyll-a concentration using remote sensing algorithm were higher than in situ measured values. The greatest variability occurred in the eastern Banda Sea during the Southeast Monsoon with shallower thermocline layer, more abundance of chlorophyll-a concentration, and lower sea surface temperature.

  3. Diurnal variability of heat fluxes over the coastal waters off Visakhapatnam during post-monsoon and winter seasons

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Ramu, Ch V.; Bharathi, G.; Sadhuram, Y.; Prasad, K.V.S.R.

    Diurnal variability of heat fluxes in the coastal waters of Visakhapatnam has been studied during post-monsoon (Oct, 2006) and winter (Jan-Feb, 2007) seasons utilizing the surface meteorological data and radiation measurements on-board CRV Sagar...

  4. Variability of mixed layer depth in the northern Indian Ocean during 1977 and 1979 summer monsoon seasons

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Gopalakrishna, V.V.; Sadhuram, Y.; RameshBabu, V.

    Influences of wind stress (tau) and wind stress curl (Grad Gamma) on the short term variability of the mixed layer depth at different locations in the northern Indian Ocean during different phases of summer monsoon activity were examined...

  5. Forced and internal modes of variability of the East Asian summer monsoon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Liu

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available The modern instrumental record (1979–2006 is analyzed in an attempt to reveal the dynamical structure and origins of the major modes of interannual variability of East Asian summer monsoon (EASM and to elucidate their fundamental differences with the major modes of seasonal variability. These differences are instrumental in understanding of the forced (say orbital and internal (say interannual modes of variability in EASM. We show that the leading mode of interannual variation, which accounts for about 39% of the total variance, is primarily associated with decaying phases of major El Nino, whereas the second mode, which accounts for 11.3% of the total variance, is associated with the developing phase of El Nino/La Nina. The EASM responds to ENSO in a nonlinear fashion with regard to the developing and decay phases of El Nino. The two modes are determined by El Nino/La Nina forcing and monsoon-warm ocean interaction, or essentially driven by internal feedback processes within the coupled climate system. For this internal mode, the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ and subtropical EASM precipitations exhibit an out-of-phase variations; further, the Meiyu in Yangtze River Valley is also out-of-phase with the precipitation in the central North China.

    In contrast, the slow and fast annual cycles forced by the solar radiation show an in-phase correlation between the ITCZ and subtropical EASM precipitation. Further, the seasonal march of precipitation displays a continental-scale northward advance of a rain band (that tilts in a southwest-northeastward direction over the entire Indian and East Asian summer monsoon from mid-May toward the end of July. This uniformity in seasonal advance suggests that the position of the northern edge of the summer monsoon or the precipitation over the central North China may be an adequate measure of the monsoon intensity for the forced mode, while the intensity of the internal mode of EASM variability

  6. Evaluation of TIGGE precipitation forecasts over West Africa at intraseasonal timescale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Louvet, S.; Sultan, B.; Janicot, S.; Kamsu-Tamo, P. H.; Ndiaye, O.

    2016-07-01

    The study evaluated for the first time the ability of meteorological models of TIGGE to forecast the main features of the West African monsoon rainfall. Seven numerical models were retained over the 2008-2012 period and compared to satellite rainfall estimates. We focused on the seasonal cycle and in particular on the onset of the rainy season and on the intra-seasonal variability that are both of high importance for agriculture, water management and health sectors. We found that the seasonal latitudinal shift of the ITCZ is rather well predicted in terms of amplitude and timing by the different models although there is a systematic northward drift in the ITCZ latitude from the lead-times 1- to 10-day. Although the onset date of rainfall varies a lot according to the different definition in the literature, we also found good performance of TIGGE forecasts in predicting the onset date of the monsoon. The analysis of intra-seasonal variability revealed that the skill of TIGGE forecasts is decreasing with the lead-time from 1- to 15-day and the performance of the ensemble mean of all models overcomes the one of any individual models. Overall criteria used in this study (intra-seasonal fluctuations, onset and seasonal cycles), the skill of UKMO and ECMWF models is better than any other model. Based on such analysis it is likely than an ensemble mean based only on these two models would be more skillful than the ensemble mean based on the seven models. TIGGE forecasts represent a promising step towards the delivery of useful climate information to end-users of key sectors such as agriculture, water management, health and public safety.

  7. Monsoon variability, crop water requirement, and crop planning for kharif rice in Sagar Island, India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mandal, S.; Choudhury, B. U.; Satpati, L. N.

    2015-12-01

    In the Sagar Island of Bay of Bengal, rainfed lowland rice is the major crop, grown solely depending on erratic distribution of southwest monsoon (SM) rainfall. Lack of information on SM rainfall variability and absence of crop scheduling accordingly results in frequent occurrence of intermittent water stress and occasional crop failure. In the present study, we analyzed long period (1982-2010) SM rainfall behavior (onset, withdrawal, rainfall and wetness indices, dry and wet spells), crop water requirement (CWR, by Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) 56), and probability of weekly rainfall occurrence (by two-parameter gamma distribution) to assess the variability and impact on water availability, CWR, and rice productivity. Finally, crop planning was suggested to overcome monsoon uncertainties on water availability and rice productivity. Study revealed that the normal onset and withdrawal weeks for SM rainfall were 22nd ± 1 and 43rd ± 2 meteorological weeks (MW), respectively. However, effective monsoon rainfall started at 24th MW (rainfall 92.7 mm, p > 56.7 % for 50 mm rainfall) and was terminated by the end of 40th MW (rainfall 90.7 mm, p spell frequency during panicle initiation and heading stage was computed as 40 of which 6 dry spells were >7 days in duration and reflected a significant ( p < 0.05) increasing trend (at 0.22 days year-1) over the years (1982-2010). The present study highlights the adaptive capacity of crop planning including abiotic stress-tolerant cultivars to monsoon rainfall variability for sustaining rainfed rice production vis-à-vis food and livelihood security in vulnerable islands of coastal ecosystem.

  8. Winter monsoon variability and its impact on aerosol concentrations in East Asia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeong, Jaein I; Park, Rokjin J

    2017-02-01

    We investigate the relationship between winter aerosol concentrations over East Asia and variability in the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) using GEOS-Chem 3-D global chemical transport model simulations and ground-based aerosol concentration data. We find that both observed and modeled surface aerosol concentrations have strong relationships with the intensity of the EAWM over northern (30-50°N, 100-140°E) and southern (20-30°N, 100-140°E) East Asia. In strong winter monsoon years, compared to weak winter monsoon years, lower and higher surface PM2.5 concentrations by up to 25% are shown over northern and southern East Asia, respectively. Analysis of the simulated results indicates that the southward transport of aerosols is a key process controlling changes in aerosol concentrations over East Asia associated with the EAWM. Variability in the EAWM is found to play a major role in interannual variations in aerosol concentrations; consequently, changes in the EAWM will be important for understanding future changes in wintertime air quality over East Asia. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. A comparative study of the Indian summer monsoon hydroclimate and its variations in three reanalyses

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Misra, Vasubandhu [Florida State University, Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Science, Tallahassee, FL (United States); Florida State University, Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies, Tallahassee, FL (United States); Pantina, P. [Science Systems and Application, Inc., Lanham, MD (United States); NASA/GSFC, Cloud and Radiation Laboratory, Greenbelt, MD (United States); Chan, S.C. [Newcastle University, School of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Newcastle upon Tyne (United Kingdom); Met Office Hadley Center, Exeter (United Kingdom); DiNapoli, S. [Florida State University, Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies, Tallahassee, FL (United States)

    2012-09-15

    This study examines the Indian summer monsoon hydroclimate in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)-Department of Energy (DOE) Reanalysis (R2), the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), and the Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA). The three reanalyses show significant differences in the climatology of evaporation, low-level winds, and precipitable water fields over India. For example, the continental evaporation is significantly less in CFSR compared to R2 and MERRA. Likewise the mean boreal summer 925 hPa westerly winds in the northern Indian Ocean are stronger in R2. Similarly the continental precipitable water in R2 is much less while it is higher and comparable in MERRA and CFSR. Despite these climatological differences between the reanalyses, the climatological evaporative sources for rain events over central India show some qualitative similarities. Major differences however appear when interannual variations of the Indian summer monsoon are analyzed. The anomalous oceanic sources of moisture from the adjacent Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea play a significant role in determining the wet or dry year of the Indian monsoon in CFSR. However in R2 the local evaporative sources from the continental region play a more significant role. We also find that the interannual variability of the evaporative sources in the break spells of the intraseasonal variations of the Indian monsoon is stronger than in the wet spells. We therefore claim that instead of rainfall, evaporative sources may be a more appropriate metric to observe the relationship between the seasonal monsoon strength and intraseasonal activity. These findings are consistent across the reanalyses and provide a basis to improve the predictability of intraseasonal variability of the Indian monsoon. This study also has a bearing on improving weather prediction for tropical cyclones in that we suggest targeting enhanced observations in the Bay of Bengal

  10. A statistically predictive model for future monsoon failure in India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schewe, Jacob; Levermann, Anders

    2012-12-01

    Indian monsoon rainfall is vital for a large share of the world’s population. Both reliably projecting India’s future precipitation and unraveling abrupt cessations of monsoon rainfall found in paleorecords require improved understanding of its stability properties. While details of monsoon circulations and the associated rainfall are complex, full-season failure is dominated by large-scale positive feedbacks within the region. Here we find that in a comprehensive climate model, monsoon failure is possible but very rare under pre-industrial conditions, while under future warming it becomes much more frequent. We identify the fundamental intraseasonal feedbacks that are responsible for monsoon failure in the climate model, relate these to observational data, and build a statistically predictive model for such failure. This model provides a simple dynamical explanation for future changes in the frequency distribution of seasonal mean all-Indian rainfall. Forced only by global mean temperature and the strength of the Pacific Walker circulation in spring, it reproduces the trend as well as the multidecadal variability in the mean and skewness of the distribution, as found in the climate model. The approach offers an alternative perspective on large-scale monsoon variability as the result of internal instabilities modulated by pre-seasonal ambient climate conditions.

  11. Southeast Asian Monsoon variability may have assisted the rise and fall of the Khmer Empire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kweku Kyei Afrifa, Yamoah; Chabangborn, Akkaneewut; Chawchai, Sakonvan; Wohlfarth, Barbara; Smittenberg, Rienk

    2014-05-01

    Climate shifts with links to human migration and social change have contributed to the global rise and fall of ancient civilizations (Weiss et al 2001; Haug et al. 2003). At the same time, these civilizations also tend to influence their environment significantly (Buckley et. al, 2010). Here we use δ13C and δD data of long-chained n-alkanes to unravel the drivers of monsoon intensity and their potential effects on the Angkor civilization. Strong Sea Surface Temperature (SST) variability from the Indo Pacific Warm Pool (IPWP), coupled to dramatic changes in the Pacific Walker Circulation (PWC) is suggested as a potential driver of the monsoon variability in Southeast Asia over the last two millennia. Our dataset provides independent evidence that past vegetation in Southeast Asia was greatly influenced by the activities of the Angkor people at about AD 834 to 1431 when agricultural activities and extensive hydrological systems may have contributed immensely to change the vegetation type. The massive agricultural boom as a result of increase in monsoon intensity, along with an extensive hydrological system, may have contributed significantly to the rise of the Khmer Empire. However, a prolonged drought as a result of the gradual weakening of the monsoon intensity over time (AD 1375-2000) may have caused the water management system to fail thus contributing significantly to the demise of the Khmer empire. References B. M. Buckley et al., Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 107, 6748 (2010). G. H. Haug et al., Science 299, 1731 (2003). H. Weiss, R. S. Bradley, Science 291, 609 (2001).

  12. Spatio-temporal variability of summer monsoon rainfall over Orissa in relation to low pressure systems

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    M Mohapatra; U C Mohanty

    2006-04-01

    The summer monsoon rainfall over Orissa occurs mostly due to low pressure systems (LPS)developing over the Bay of Bengal and moving along the monsoon trough.A study is hence undertaken to find out characteristic features of the relationship between LPS over different regions and rainfall over Orissa during the summer monsoon season (June-September).For this purpose,rainfall and rainy days over 31 selected stations in Orissa and LPS days over Orissa and adjoining land and sea regions during different monsoon months and the season as a whole over a period of 20 years (1980-1999)are analysed.The principal objective of this study is to find out the role of LPS on spatial and temporal variability of summer monsoon rainfall over Orissa. The rainfall has been significantly less than normal over most parts of Orissa except the eastern side of Eastern Ghats during July and hence during the season as a whole due to a significantly less number of LPS days over northwest Bay in July over the period of 1980-1999.The seasonal rainfall shows higher interannual variation (increase in coefficient of variation by about 5%)during 1980-1999 than that during 1901-1990 over most parts of Orissa except northeast Orissa.Most parts of Orissa,especially the region extending from central part of coastal Orissa to western Orissa (central zone)and western side of the Eastern Ghats get more seasonal monsoon rainfall with the development and persistence of LPS over northwest Bay and their subsequent movement and persistence over Orissa.The north Orissa adjoining central zone also gets more seasonal rainfall with development and persistence of LPS over northwest Bay.While the seasonal rainfall over the western side of the Eastern Ghats is adversely affected due to increase in LPS days over west central Bay,Jharkhand and Bangladesh,that over the eastern side of the Eastern Ghats is adversely affected due to increase in LPS days over all the regions to the north of Orissa.There are signi

  13. Drought variability at the northern fringe of the Asian summer monsoon region over the past millennia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Bao; Kang, Shuyuan; Ljungqvist, Fredrik Charpentier; He, Minhui; Zhao, Yan; Qin, Chun

    2014-08-01

    The northern fringe of the Asian summer monsoon region (NASM) in China refers to the most northwestern extent of the Asian summer monsoon. Understanding the characteristics and underlying mechanisms of drought variability at long and short time-scales in the NASM region is of great importance, because present and future water shortages are of great concern. Here, we used newly developed and existing tree-ring, historical documentary and instrumental data available for the region to identify spatial and temporal patterns, and possible mechanisms of drought variability, over the past two millennia. We found that drought variations were roughly consistent in the western (the Qilian Mountains and Hexi Corridor) and eastern (the Great Bend of the Yellow River, referred to as GBYR) parts of the NASM on decadal to centennial timescales. We also identified the spatial extent of typical multi-decadal GBYR drought events based on historical dryness/wetness data and the Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas. It was found that the two periods of drought, in AD 1625-1644 and 1975-1999, exhibited similar patterns: specifically, a wet west and a dry east in the NASM. Spatial characteristics of wetness and dryness were also broadly similar over these two periods, such that when drought occurred in the Karakoram Mountains, western Tianshan Mountains, the Pamirs, Mongolia, most of East Asia, the eastern Himalayas and Southeast Asia, a wet climate dominated in most parts of the Indian subcontinent. We suggest that the warm temperature anomalies in the tropical Pacific might have been mainly responsible for the recent 1975-1999 drought. Possible causes of the drought of 1625-1644 were the combined effects of the weakened Asian summer monsoon and an associated southward shift of the Pacific Intertropical Convergence Zone. These changes occurred due to a combination of Tibetan Plateau cooling together with more general Northern Hemisphere cooling, rather than being solely due to changes in the sea

  14. Intraseasonal oscillations of stratospheric ozone above Switzerland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Studer, Simone; Hocke, Klemens; Kämpfer, Niklaus

    2012-01-01

    GROMOS, the ground-based millimeter-wave ozone spectrometer, continuously measures the stratospheric ozone profile between the altitudes of 20 and 65 km above Bern (46°57‧N, 7°27‧E) since November 1994. Characteristics of intraseasonal oscillations of stratospheric ozone are derived from the long-term data set. Spectral analysis gives evidence for a dominant oscillation period of about 20 days in the lower and middle stratosphere during winter time. A strong 20-day wave is also found in collocated geopotential height measurements of the microwave limb sounder onboard the Aura satellite (Aura/MLS) confirming the ground-based observations of GROMOS and underlining the link between ozone and dynamics. Remarkably, the ozone series of GROMOS show an interannual variability of the strength of intraseasonal oscillations of stratospheric ozone. The interannual variability of ozone fluctuations is possibly due to influences of planetary wave forcing and the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) on the meridional Brewer-Dobson circulation of the middle atmosphere. In detail, time series of the mean amplitude of ozone fluctuations with periods ranging from 10 to 60 days are derived at fixed pressure levels. The mean amplitude series are regarded as a measure of the strength of intraseasonal oscillations of stratospheric ozone above Bern. After deseasonalizing the mean amplitude series, we find QBO-like amplitude modulations of the intraseasonal oscillations of ozone. The amplitudes of the intraseasonal oscillations are enhanced by a factor of 2 in 1997, 2001, 2003, and 2005. QBO-like variations of intraseasonal oscillations are also present in wind, temperature and other parameters above Bern as indicated by meteorological reanalyses of the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Further, intercomparisons of interannual variability of intraseasonal tropospheric and stratospheric oscillations are performed where the NAO index (North-Atlantic oscillation

  15. A new index to describe the tropical Asian summer monsoon

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    XU ZhongFeng; FU CongBin; QIAN YongFu

    2009-01-01

    We define a new monsoon index (MV) as the product of relative vorticity and equivalent potential tem-perature using the long-term NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data.The MV index provides new insights into the intraseasonal and interannual variabilities of the broad-scale tropical Asian summer monsoon (TASM),including the South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) and the South China Sea summer monsoon (SCSSM).On the intraseasonal timescale,the pentad-to-pentad MV index bears a close relationship to the broad-scale rainfall in the TASM regions.Among 29 summers from 1979 to 2007,in 23/27 summers the correlation coefficients are higher than 0.7 in the SASM/SCSSM region.However,in fewer than 9 summers,the correlations between the broad-scale rainfall and the existing circulation indices are higher than 0.7.On the interannual timescale,various existing SASM circulation indices are moderately or well correlated with all-India summer monsoon rainfall,whereas their correlations with broad-scale SASM rainfall are weak.In contrast,the summer mean MV index correlates well with the broad-scale SASM rainfall and all-India summer monsoon rainfall (correlation of 0.73 and 0.65,respectively).In the SCSSM region,the summer mean MV index also bears a close relationship to the SCSSM rainfall,al-though some discrepancies exist during certain years.The composite strong TASM shows a stronger low-tropospheric low pressure in association with the enhanced westerly winds and moisture transfer,stronger convection,and upper-tropospheric easterly winds,which indicate that the MV index can well capture the features of TASM.

  16. A new index to describe the tropical Asian summer monsoon

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2009-01-01

    We define a new monsoon index (MV) as the product of relative vorticity and equivalent potential temperature using the long-term NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. The MV index provides new insights into the intraseasonal and interannual variabilities of the broad-scale tropical Asian summer monsoon (TASM), including the South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) and the South China Sea summer monsoon (SCSSM). On the intraseasonal timescale, the pentad-to-pentad MV index bears a close relationship to the broad-scale rainfall in the TASM regions. Among 29 summers from 1979 to 2007, in 23/27 summers the correlation coefficients are higher than 0.7 in the SASM/SCSSM region. However, in fewer than 9 summers, the correlations between the broad-scale rainfall and the existing circulation indices are higher than 0.7. On the interannual timescale, various existing SASM circulation indices are moderately or well correlated with all-India summer monsoon rainfall, whereas their correlations with broad-scale SASM rainfall are weak. In contrast, the summer mean MV index correlates well with the broad-scale SASM rainfall and all-India summer monsoon rainfall (correlation of 0.73 and 0.65, respectively). In the SCSSM region, the summer mean MV index also bears a close relationship to the SCSSM rainfall, although some discrepancies exist during certain years. The composite strong TASM shows a stronger low-tropospheric low pressure in association with the enhanced westerly winds and moisture transfer, stronger convection, and upper-tropospheric easterly winds, which indicate that the MV index can well capture the features of TASM.

  17. Influence of Soil Moisture on the Asian and African Monsoons. Part II: Interannual Variability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Douville, H.

    2002-04-01

    The relevance of soil moisture (SM) for simulating the interannual climate variability has not been much investigated until recently. Much more attention has been paid on SST anomalies, especially in the Tropics where the El Niño-Southern Oscillation represents the main mode of variability. In the present study, ensembles of atmospheric integrations based on the Action de Recherche Petit Echelle Grande Echelle (ARPEGE) climate model have been performed for two summer seasons: 1987 and 1988, respectively. The aim is to compare the relative impacts of using realistic boundary conditions of SST and SM on the simulated variability of the Asian and African monsoons. Besides control runs with interactive SM, sensitivity tests have been done in which SM is relaxed toward a state-of-the-art SM climatology, either globally or regionally over the monsoon domain. The simulations indicate that the variations of the Asian monsoon between 1987 and 1988 are mainly driven by SST anomalies. This result might be explained by the strong teleconnection with the ENSO and by a weak SM-precipitation feedback over south Asia (Part I of the study). The influence of SM is more obvious over Africa. The model needs both realistic SST and SM boundary conditions to simulate the observed variability of the Sahelian monsoon rainfall. The positive impact of the SM relaxation is not only due to a local mechanism whereby larger surface evaporation leads to larger precipitation. The best results are obtained when the relaxation is applied globally, suggesting that remote SM impacts also contribute to the improved simulation of the precipitation variability. A relationship between the Sahelian rainfall anomalies and the meridional wind anomalies over North Africa points out the possible influence of the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes. The comparison of the low- and midtropospheric anomalies in the various pairs of experiments indicates that SM anomalies can trigger stationary waves over Europe, and

  18. A Holistic View of the Coupled Monsoon System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webster, P. J.

    2008-12-01

    its original annual cycle within a year. The Dipole or Zonal Mode is a component of this self-regulation. The self-regulation also explains why the interannual variability of the monsoon is relatively small and why it is rare to find a chain of years that possess the same sign anomaly. It also explains why there is a strong biennial variability of the monsoon Finally, the higher frequency intraseasonal variability is considered and shows a modulation of cross- equatorial heat on 20-60 day time scales in both the atmosphere and the ocean suggesting mechanisms for coupled intraseasonal variability.

  19. Mean state and interannual variability of the Indian summer monsoon simulation by NCEP CFSv2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shukla, Ravi P.; Huang, Bohua

    2016-06-01

    The capability of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction climate forecast system version 2 (CFSv2) in simulating the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) is evaluated in the context of the global monsoon in the Indo-Pacific domain and its variability. Although the CFSv2 captures the ISM spatial structure qualitatively, it demonstrates a severe dry bias over the Indian subcontinent. The weaker model monsoon may be related to an excessive surface convergence over the equatorial Indian Ocean, which reduces the moisture transport toward the Indian subcontinent. The excessively low equatorial pressure is in turn a part of a tropical-wise bias with the largest errors in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific associated with the cold sea surface temperature bias and an overly strong inter-tropical convergence zone. In this sense, the model bias in the tropical Pacific influences those in the Indian Ocean-ISM region substantially. The leading mode of the June-September averaged CFSv2 rainfall anomalies covering the ISM and its adjacent oceanic regions is qualitatively similar to that of the observations, characterized by a spatial pattern of strong anomalies over either side of the Indian peninsula as well as center of opposite sign over Myanmar. However, the model fails to reproduce the northward expansion of rainfall anomalies from Myanmar, leading to opposite anomalies over northeast India and Himalayas region. A substantial amount of the anomalous fluctuation is attributed to the El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO), although the model variability depends more strongly on ENSO. The active regional influences in the observations may contribute to its baroclinic vertical structure of the geopotential height anomalies in the ISM region, compared with the predominantly barotropic one in CFSv2. Model ENSO deficiencies also affects its ISM simulation significantly.

  20. Intraseasonal variability of winter precipitation over central asia and the western tibetan plateau from 1979 to 2013 and its relationship with the North Atlantic Oscillation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Heng; Liu, Xiaodong; Dong, Buwen

    2017-09-01

    Winter precipitation over Central Asia and the western Tibetan Plateau (CAWTP) is mainly a result of the interaction between the westerly circulation and the high mountains around the plateau. Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOFs), Singular Value Decomposition (SVD), linear regression and composite analysis were used to analyze winter daily precipitation and other meteorological elements in this region from 1979 to 2013, in order to understand how interactions between the regional circulation and topography affect the intraseasonal variability in precipitation. The SVD analysis shows that the winter daily precipitation variability distribution is characterized by a dipole pattern with opposite signs over the northern Pamir Plateau and over the Karakoram Himalaya, similar to the second mode of EOF analysis. This dipole pattern of precipitation anomaly is associated with local anomalies in both the 700 hPa moisture transport and the 500 hPa geopotential height and is probably caused by oscillations in the regional and large-scale circulations, which can influence the westerly disturbance tracks and water vapor transport. The linear regression shows that the anomalous mid-tropospheric circulation over CAWTP corresponds to an anti-phase variation of the 500 hPa geopotential height anomalies over the southern and northern North Atlantic 10 days earlier (at 95% significance level), that bears a similarity to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The composite analysis reveals that the NAO impacts the downstream regions including CAWTP by controlling south-north two branches of the middle latitude westerly circulation around the Eurasian border. During the positive phases of the NAO, the northern branch of the westerly circulation goes around the northwest Tibetan Plateau, whereas the southern branch encounters the southwest Tibetan Plateau, which leads to reduced precipitation over the northern Pamir Plateau and increased precipitation over the Karakoram Himalaya, and

  1. Evolution and variability of the Indian Ocean summer monsoon: Evidence from the western Arabian sea drilling program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prell, Warren L.; Murray, David W.; Clemens, Steven C.; Anderson, David M.

    A number of forcing factors, including the tectonic evolution of Himalaya-Tibet and orbitally-induced changes in seasonal radiation, combine to cause the initiation, evolution, and variability of the Indian Ocean monsoon. Although climate model experiments can be used to estimate the variability attributed to each forcing factor, the only record of past monsoonal variation lies in the sediments of the northern Indian Ocean and the adjacent continents. A major goal of the regional survey cruise (RC27-04) and ODP Leg 117 was to recover the marine geologic record necessary to understand the history of the initiation, evolution and variability of the Indian Ocean summer monsoon and to provide an observational data set for comparison with model simulations of monsoon circulation. General Circulation Model (GCM) experiments show that orbitally-induced increases in solar radiation significantly strengthen the monsoon winds and precipitation over southern Asia, but that surface boundary conditions (including sea surface temperature, albedo) associated with glacial phases weaken monsoon winds and precipitation. Experiments with full (modem elevations) and reduced plateau-mountain elevations reveal stronger winds and higher precipitation as mountain elevation increases. These results indicate that monsoon strength is equally sensitive to changes in solar radiation (on orbital time scales) and orographic changes (on longer time scales). They also indicate that global cooling cannot intensify the monsoon, so that the onset of the monsoon is most likely related to increased mountain elevation. Sediments in the northwest Arabian Sea exhibit characteristic fauna (radiolarians and foraminifers) that are endemic to areas of strong upwelling. In the Arabian Sea, intense seasonal upwelling is induced by the southwesterly monsoon winds. Miocene to Recent sediments from the northwest Arabian Sea show distinct geochemical and biological changes which suggest that monsoonal upwelling

  2. Performance evaluation of regional climate model to simulate sub-seasonal variability of Indian Summer Monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Umakanth, U.; Kesarkar, Amit P.

    2017-07-01

    The study aims to evaluate the regional climate model (RegCM) over South Asian (SA) CORDEX domain to represent seasonal and sub-seasonal variability of Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM). The model's ability is evaluated by conducting two sets of experiments using one-tier approach of coupling the RegCM with a simple mixed-layer slab ocean model (SOM) and the two-tier approach of prescribing sea surface temperature (SST) to RegCM. Two model experiments are initialized at 1st January 2000 for a period of 13 year continuous simulation at a spatial resolution of 50 km. It is found that, one-tier approach realistically represents the spatial distribution of precipitation with significant improvement noticed over central India (CI) and head Bay of Bengal (BoB) regions. In addition, it also fairly reproduced the observed mean meridional circulation response to the diabatic heating produced during ISM. Most importantly, in one-tier approach the model could able to represent the observed SST and precipitation (P) relationship with significant improvement in correlation and model response time. An important result is the representation of northwest-southeast tilt of precipitation anomalies during active/break phase of monsoon. Additionally, the lagged response of vertical profiles of specific humidity, omega, vorticity and divergence over CI with respect to peak rainfall anomaly (active phase) are relatively better represented in one-tier approach. In brief, coupling improves the performance of RegCM in simulating the space-time characteristics of monsoon ISO mode.

  3. The role of the intra-daily SST variability in the Indian monsoon variability and monsoon-ENSO-IOD relationships in a global coupled model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Terray, Pascal; Kamala, Kakitha; Masson, Sebastien; Madec, Gurvan [Universite Pierre et Marie Curie, LOCEAN/IPSL, CNRS/IRD/UPMC/MNHN, Paris Cedex 05 (France); Sahai, A.K. [Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune (India); Luo, Jing-Jia; Yamagata, Toshio [RIGC, Yokohama (Japan)

    2012-08-15

    The impact of diurnal SST coupling and vertical oceanic resolution on the simulation of the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) and its relationships with El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events are studied through the analysis of four integrations of a high resolution Coupled General Circulation Model (CGCM), but with different configurations. The only differences between the four integrations are the frequency of coupling between the ocean and atmosphere for the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) parameter (2 vs. 24 h coupling) and/or the vertical oceanic resolution (31 vs. 301 levels) in the CGCM. Although the summer mean tropical climate is reasonably well captured with all the configurations of the CGCM and is not significantly modified by changing the frequency of SST coupling from once to twelve per day, the ISM-ENSO teleconnections are rather poorly simulated in the two simulations in which SST is exchanged only once per day, independently of the vertical oceanic resolution used in the CGCM. Surprisingly, when 2 h SST coupling is implemented in the CGCM, the ISM-ENSO teleconnection is better simulated, particularly, the complex lead-lag relationships between the two phenomena, in which a weak ISM occurs during the developing phase of an El Nino event in the Pacific, are closely resembling the observed ones. Evidence is presented to show that these improvements are related to changes in the characteristics of the model's El Nino which has a more realistic evolution in its developing and decaying phases, a stronger amplitude and a shift to lower frequencies when a 2-hourly SST coupling strategy is implemented without any significant changes in the basic state of the CGCM. As a consequence of these improvements in ENSO variability, the lead relationships between Indo-Pacific SSTs and ISM rainfall resemble the observed patterns more closely, the ISM-ENSO teleconnection is strengthened during boreal summer and ISM rainfall power spectrum

  4. Statistically related coupled modes of South Asian summer monsoon interannual variability in the tropics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Syed, Faisal S.; Kucharski, Fred

    2016-04-01

    Statistically coupled patterns of South Asian Summer Monsoon (SASM) interannual variability in the tropical oceans have been explored.Maximum covariance analysis (MCA) performed between global tropical sea surface temperature (SST) and SASM precipitation shows that El-Nino southern oscillation (ENSO) is the leading mode in the tropics, whereas the eastern pole of the Indian Ocean Dipole contributes to the second global mode and is the leading mode in the Indian Ocean. South tropical Atlantic SST variability is contributing to the second and third mode in the tropics and is the leading mode in the tropical Atlantic MCA coupled with SASM. The physical mechamism of the south tropical Atlantic-SASM teleconnection is analysed in more details.

  5. Late quaternary variability of the Arabian Sea monsoon and oxygen minimum zone

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reichart, Gert-Jan

    1997-01-01

    The Monsoon Among the first Europeans observing the Asiatic monsoon was Alexander the Great during his campaign to the mouth of the Indus (325 B.C.). The oldest known records of the Arabian Sea monsoonal climate, however, are shipping documents, dated about 2300 B.C., which refer to the use of the s

  6. Rocky Mountain hydroclimate: Holocene variability and the role of insolation, ENSO, and the North American Monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Lesleigh

    2012-01-01

    Over the period of instrumental records, precipitation maximum in the headwaters of the Colorado Rocky Mountains has been dominated by winter snow, with a substantial degree of interannual variability linked to Pacific ocean–atmosphere dynamics. High-elevation snowpack is an important water storage that is carefully observed in order to meet increasing water demands in the greater semi-arid region. The purpose here is to consider Rocky Mountain water trends during the Holocene when known changes in earth's energy balance were caused by precession-driven insolation variability. Changes in solar insolation are thought to have influenced the variability and intensity of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and North American Monsoon and the seasonal precipitation balance between rain and snow at upper elevations. Holocene records are presented from two high elevation lakes located in northwest Colorado that document decade-to-century scale precipitation seasonality for the past ~ 7000 years. Comparisons with sub-tropical records of ENSO indicate that the snowfall-dominated precipitation maxima developed ~ 3000 and 4000 years ago, coincident with evidence for enhanced ENSO/PDO dynamics. During the early-to-mid Holocene the records suggest a more monsoon affected precipitation regime with reduced snowpack, more rainfall, and net moisture deficits that were more severe than recent droughts. The Holocene perspective of precipitation indicates a far broader range of variability than that of the past century and highlights the non-linear character of hydroclimate in the U.S. west.

  7. Interdecadal Variability of the East Asian Summer Monsoon in an AGCM

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    HAN Jinping; WANG Huijun

    2007-01-01

    It is well known that significant interdecadal variation of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM)occurred around the end of the 1970s. Whether these variations can be attributed to the evolution of global sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice concentration distribution is investigated with an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM). The model is forced with observed monthly global SST and sea ice evolution through 1958-1999. A total of four integrations starting from different initial conditions are carried out. It is found that only one of these reproduces the observed interdecadal changes of the EASM after the 1970s, including weakened low-level meridional wind, decreased surface air temperature and increased sea level pressure in central China, as well as the southwestward shift of the western Pacific subtropical high ridge and the strengthened 200-hPa westerlies. This discrepancy among these simulated results suggests that the interdecadal variation of the EASM cannot be accounted for by historical global SST and sea ice evolution. Thus, the possibility that the interdecadal timescale change of monsoon is a natural variability of the coupled climate system evolution cannot be excluded.

  8. Precipitation variability over the South Asian monsoon heat low and associated teleconnections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saeed, Sajjad; Müller, Wolfgang A.; Hagemann, Stefan; Jacob, Daniela; Mujumdar, M.; Krishnan, R.

    2011-04-01

    The present study examines the precipitation variability over the South Asian monsoon heat low region and associated teleconnections using high resolution (T106L31) climate simulations performed with the ECHAM5 model. It is found that an intensification of the heat low in response to enhanced precipitation/convection over northwestern India-Pakistan (NWIP) can induce large-scale circulation anomalies that resemble the northern summer circumglobal teleconnection (CGT) wave-like pattern extending well into the Asian monsoon region. Accordingly the wave-like response to rainfall increase over the heat low region is associated with anomalous ascent over northern China and descent over the South China Sea. Additionally, small but statistically significant lead-lag correlations between the heat low and precipitation over northern China further suggest that the detected signal pertains to the true features of the process. On the other hand, suppressed convection and rainfall over the heat low region do not reveal any significant large-scale circulation anomalies.

  9. The onset and advance of the Asian summer monsoon

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2006-01-01

    Based on the daily outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) data from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) satellites, the Climate Prediction Center's merged analysis of precipitation (CMAP) data and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis dataset, the mean intraseasonal variability of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) is investigated by using power spectrum analysis, band-pass filter, and diagnostic analyses. The processes of the onset and advance of monsoon over the southern part of Indochina Peninsula, the east coast of Bay of Bengal, the South China Sea and the Indian subcontinent are explored. It is found that there is an abrupt change in OLR, precipitation and zonal wind during the onset and advance of the ASM. It is also indicated that the southern part of Indochina Peninsula and the adjacent Andaman Sea is the region where the earliest onset of the ASM occurs in the 2nd pentad of May.

  10. Simulation skill of APCC set of global climate models for Asian summer monsoon rainfall variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, U. K.; Singh, G. P.; Singh, Vikas

    2015-04-01

    The performance of 11 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Climate Center (APCC) global climate models (coupled and uncoupled both) in simulating the seasonal summer (June-August) monsoon rainfall variability over Asia (especially over India and East Asia) has been evaluated in detail using hind-cast data (3 months advance) generated from APCC which provides the regional climate information product services based on multi-model ensemble dynamical seasonal prediction systems. The skill of each global climate model over Asia was tested separately in detail for the period of 21 years (1983-2003), and simulated Asian summer monsoon rainfall (ASMR) has been verified using various statistical measures for Indian and East Asian land masses separately. The analysis found a large variation in spatial ASMR simulated with uncoupled model compared to coupled models (like Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia, National Centers for Environmental Prediction and Japan Meteorological Agency). The simulated ASMR in coupled model was closer to Climate Prediction Centre Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP) compared to uncoupled models although the amount of ASMR was underestimated in both models. Analysis also found a high spread in simulated ASMR among the ensemble members (suggesting that the model's performance is highly dependent on its initial conditions). The correlation analysis between sea surface temperature (SST) and ASMR shows that that the coupled models are strongly associated with ASMR compared to the uncoupled models (suggesting that air-sea interaction is well cared in coupled models). The analysis of rainfall using various statistical measures suggests that the multi-model ensemble (MME) performed better compared to individual model and also separate study indicate that Indian and East Asian land masses are more useful compared to Asia monsoon rainfall as a whole. The results of various statistical measures like skill of multi-model ensemble, large spread

  11. Factors affecting the inter-annual to centennial timescale variability of Indian summer monsoon rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malik, Abdul; Brönnimann, Stefan

    2017-09-01

    The Modes of Ocean Variability (MOV) namely Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) can have significant impacts on Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) on different timescales. The timescales at which these MOV interacts with ISMR and the factors which may perturb their relationship with ISMR need to be investigated. We employ De-trended Cross-Correlation Analysis (DCCA), and De-trended Partial-Cross-Correlation Analysis (DPCCA) to study the timescales of interaction of ISMR with AMO, PDO, and ENSO using observational dataset (AD 1854-1999), and atmosphere-ocean-chemistry climate model simulations with SOCOL-MPIOM (AD 1600-1999). Further, this study uses De-trended Semi-Partial Cross-Correlation Analysis (DSPCCA) to address the relation between solar variability and the ISMR. We find statistically significant evidence of intrinsic correlations of ISMR with AMO, PDO, and ENSO on different timescales, consistent between model simulations and observations. However, the model fails to capture modulation in intrinsic relationship between ISRM and MOV due to external signals. Our analysis indicates that AMO is a potential source of non-stationary relationship between ISMR and ENSO. Furthermore, the pattern of correlation between ISMR and Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) is inconsistent between observations and model simulations. The observational dataset indicates statistically insignificant negative intrinsic correlation between ISMR and TSI on decadal-to-centennial timescales. This statistically insignificant negative intrinsic correlation is transformed to statistically significant positive extrinsic by AMO on 61-86-year timescale. We propose a new mechanism for Sun-monsoon connection which operates through AMO by changes in summer (June-September; JJAS) meridional gradient of tropospheric temperatures (ΔTTJJAS). There is a negative (positive) intrinsic correlation between ΔTTJJAS (AMO) and

  12. The Aerosol-Monsoon Climate System of Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, William K. M.; Kyu-Myong, Kim

    2012-01-01

    In Asian monsoon countries such as China and India, human health and safety problems caused by air-pollution are worsening due to the increased loading of atmospheric pollutants stemming from rising energy demand associated with the rapid pace of industrialization and modernization. Meanwhile, uneven distribution of monsoon rain associated with flash flood or prolonged drought, has caused major loss of human lives, and damages in crop and properties with devastating societal impacts on Asian countries. Historically, air-pollution and monsoon research are treated as separate problems. However a growing number of recent studies have suggested that the two problems may be intrinsically intertwined and need to be studied jointly. Because of complexity of the dynamics of the monsoon systems, aerosol impacts on monsoons and vice versa must be studied and understood in the context of aerosol forcing in relationship to changes in fundamental driving forces of the monsoon climate system (e.g. sea surface temperature, land-sea contrast etc.) on time scales from intraseasonal variability (weeks) to climate change ( multi-decades). Indeed, because of the large contributions of aerosols to the global and regional energy balance of the atmosphere and earth surface, and possible effects of the microphysics of clouds and precipitation, a better understanding of the response to climate change in Asian monsoon regions requires that aerosols be considered as an integral component of a fully coupled aerosol-monsoon system on all time scales. In this paper, using observations and results from climate modeling, we will discuss the coherent variability of the coupled aerosol-monsoon climate system in South Asia and East Asia, including aerosol distribution and types, with respect to rainfall, moisture, winds, land-sea thermal contrast, heat sources and sink distributions in the atmosphere in seasonal, interannual to climate change time scales. We will show examples of how elevated

  13. Predictability of the East Asian Winter Monsoon Interannual Variability as Indicated by the DEMETER CGCMS

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI Fei; WANG Huijun

    2012-01-01

    The interannual variability of East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) circulation from the Development of a European Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) System for Seasonal to Inter-Annual Prediction (DEMETER)hindcasts was evaluated against observation reanalysis data.We evaluated the DEMETER coupled general circulation models (CGCMs)' retrospective prediction of the typical EAWM and its associated atmospheric circulation.Results show that the EAWM can be reasonably predicted with statistically significant accuracy,yet the major bias of the hindcast models is the underestimation of the related anomalies.The temporal correlation coefficient (TCC) of the MME-produced EAWM index,defined as the first EOF mode of 850-hPa air temperature within the EAWM domain (20°-60°N,90° 150°E),was 0.595.This coefficient was higher than those of the corresponding individual models (range:0.39-0.51) for the period 1969-2001; this result indicates the advantage of the super-ensemble approach.This study also showed that the ensemble models can reasonably reproduce the major modes and their interannual variabilities for sea level pressure,geopotential height,surface air temperature,and wind fields in Eurasia.Therefore,the prediction of EAWM interannual variability is feasible using multimodel ensemble systems and that they may also reveal the associated mechanisms of the EAWM interannual variability.

  14. Intra-Seasonal Variability of Climate and Peasant Perception of Climate Change in Massili Basin in Burkina Faso.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kabore Bontogho, P. E.

    2014-12-01

    Knowledge of climate variability is relevant and challenging for farmers, decision makers and population in general. Ninety percent of Burkina Faso active population is engaged in agriculture and livestock, which accounts for 39% of gross domestic product. Located between the coordinates 1o15'-1o55' West and 12o17'- 12o50'North, Massili basin includes Ouagadougou the capital and has four dams, of which the most important dam, Loumbila is used for the capital water supply and irrigation. A change of climate may affect the water resources most likely limit the access to safe water. In order to characterize Massili basin climate variability, daily temperature and precipitation over 1960 to 2012 was analyzed using long-term records from the Ouagadougou synoptic station. By applying R-climdex and instat tools, indices were calculated by a consistent approach recommended by the World Meteorological Organization Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices. The precipitation parameters computed were: the maximum 5-day precipitationamount; the number of days with precipitation amount ≥50 mm ; the maximum precipitation amount in consecutive wet days with RR≥ 1mm; the consecutives dry days;the extremely wet days ; the extreme precipitation in one day, the total precipitation in wet days; the temperature indices computed were : the maximum of the maximum daily temperature, the minimum of daily maximum temperature,the minimum of daily minimum temperature,the cold spell duration indices and the warm spell duration indicator. Results show a slight increase of the maximum 5-day precipitation, maximum precipitation amount in consecutive wet days with RR≥1mm, the onset delayed and the cessation is earlier meaning that the rainfall period is shortening. The total precipitationwas decreased in the basin but there is a slight increase in the occurrence of extremely wet days. CSDI is decreasing while warm spell duration indices are increasing. In parallel of the data

  15. Impacts of the Sahel-Sahara Interface Reforestation on West African Climate: Intraseasonal Variability and Extreme Precipitation Events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ibrahima Diba

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to evaluate the impacts of the Sahel-Sahara interface reforestation on spatiotemporal variability of the summer rainfall and extreme precipitation events over West Africa using the RegCM4 model. The land surface scheme of RegCM4 was modified to incorporate an East-West reforested zone (15°N and 20°N. Two runs were performed using the standard version of RegCM4 and the modified one of the same model taking into account the incorporated forest. The reforestation significantly modifies rainfall signal over West Africa by increasing it over the reforested zone and the Fouta Jallon highlands (FJH. This rainfall increase is associated with a strengthening of the atmospheric moisture over the reforested area. This atmospheric moisture content increase associated with the wind dynamic may explain the spatiotemporal change of the rainfall and extreme precipitation events. The analysis of the impacts of the reforestation on some rainfall indices shows an increase of the 90th, 95th, and 99th percentiles over the reforested zone and off the FJH. This reforestation also causes an increase of the maximum length of the consecutive wet days over and off FJH and a decrease of the maximum length of the consecutive dry days over the northern Sahel and the reforested zone.

  16. Inter-annual rainfall variability in the eastern Antilles and coupling with the regional and intra-seasonal circulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jury, Mark R.

    2016-11-01

    Climate variability in the eastern Antilles island chain is analyzed via principal component analysis of high-resolution monthly rainfall in the period 1981-2013. The second mode reflecting higher rainfall in July-October season between Martinique and Grenada is the focus of this study. Higher rainfall corresponds with a weakened trade wind and boundary current along the southern edge of the Caribbean. This quells the coastal upwelling off Venezuela and builds the freshwater plume east of Trinidad. There is corresponding upper easterly wind flow that intensifies passing tropical waves. During a storm event over the Antilles on 4-5 October 2010, there was inflow from east of Guyana where low salinity and high sea temperatures enable surplus latent heat fluxes. A N-S convective rain band forms ˜500 km east of the cyclonic vortex. Many features at the weather timescale reflect the seasonal correlation and composite difference maps and El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) modulation of oceanic inter-basin transfers.

  17. South Asian summer monsoon variability during the last ˜54 kyrs inferred from surface water salinity and river runoff proxies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gebregiorgis, D.; Hathorne, E. C.; Sijinkumar, A. V.; Nath, B. Nagender; Nürnberg, D.; Frank, M.

    2016-04-01

    The past variability of the South Asian Monsoon is mostly known from records of wind strength over the Arabian Sea while high-resolution paleorecords from regions of strong monsoon precipitation are still lacking. Here, we present records of past monsoon variability obtained from sediment core SK 168/GC-1, which was collected at the Alcock Seamount complex in the Andaman Sea. We utilize the ecological habitats of different planktic foraminiferal species to reconstruct freshwater-induced stratification based on paired Mg/Ca and δ18O analyses and to estimate seawater δ18O (δ18Osw). The difference between surface and thermocline temperatures (ΔT) and δ18Osw (Δδ18Osw) is used to investigate changes in upper ocean stratification. Additionally, Ba/Ca in G. sacculifer tests is used as a direct proxy for riverine runoff and sea surface salinity (SSS) changes related to monsoon precipitation on land. Our Δδ18Osw time series reveals that upper ocean salinity stratification did not change significantly throughout the last glacial suggesting little influence of NH insolation changes. The strongest increase in temperature gradients between the mixed layer and the thermocline is recorded for the mid-Holocene and indicate the presence of a significantly shallower thermocline. In line with previous work, the δ18Osw and Ba/Ca records demonstrate that monsoon climate during the LGM was characterized by a significantly weaker southwest monsoon circulation and strongly reduced runoff. Based on our data the South Asian Summer Monsoon (SAM) over the Irrawaddyy strengthened gradually after the LGM beginning at ∼18 ka. This is some 3 kyrs before an increase of the Ba/Ca record from the Arabian Sea and indicates that South Asian Monsoon climate dynamics are more complex than the simple N-S displacement of the ITCZ as generally described for other regions. Minimum δ18Osw values recorded during the mid-Holocene are in phase with Ba/Ca marking a stronger monsoon precipitation

  18. Mid- to late Holocene Indian Ocean Monsoon variability recorded in four speleothems from Socotra Island, Yemen

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Rampelbergh, Maïté; Fleitmann, Dominik; Verheyden, Sophie; Cheng, Hai; Edwards, Lawrence; De Geest, Peter; De Vleeschouwer, David; Burns, Stephen J.; Matter, Albert; Claeys, Philippe; Keppens, Eddy

    2013-04-01

    Four stalagmites covering the last 7.0 ka were sampled on Socotra, an island in the northern Indian Ocean to investigate the evolution of the northeast Indian Ocean Monsoon (IOM) since the mid Holocene. On Socotra, rain is delivered at the start of the southwest IOM in May-June and at the start of the northeast IOM from September to December. The Haggeher Mountains act as a barrier forcing precipitation brought by the northeast winds to fall preferentially on the eastern side of the island, where the studied caves are located. δ18O and δ13C and Mg/Ca and Sr/Ca signals in the stalagmites reflect precipitation amounts brought by the northeast winds. For stalagmite STM6, this amount effect is amplified by kinetic effects during calcite deposition. Combined interpretation of the stalagmites' signals suggest a weakening of the northeast precipitation between 6.0 and 3.8 ka. After 3.8 ka precipitation intensities remain constant with two superimposed drier periods, between 0 and 0.6 ka and from 2.2 to 3.8 ka. No link can be established with Greenland ice cores and with the summer IOM variability. In contrast to the stable northeast rainy season suggested by the records in this study, speleothem records from western Socotra indicate a wettening of the southwest rainy season on Socotra after 4.4 ka. The local wettening of western Socotra could relate to a more southerly path (more over the Indian Ocean) taken by the southwest winds. Stalagmite STM5, sampled at the fringe between both rain areas displays intermediate δ18O values. After 6.2 ka, similar precipitation changes are seen between eastern Socotra and northern Oman indicating that both regions are affected similarly by the monsoon. Different palaeoclimatologic records from the Arabian Peninsula currently located outside the ITCZ migration pathway display an abrupt drying around 6 ka due to their disconnection from the southwest rain influence. Records that are nowadays still receiving rain by the southwest winds

  19. Radiative impact of mineral dust on monsoon precipitation variability over West Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Zhao

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available The radiative forcing of dust and its impact on precipitation over the West Africa monsoon (WAM region is simulated using a coupled meteorology and aerosol/chemistry model (WRF-Chem. During the monsoon season, dust is a dominant contributor to aerosol optical depth (AOD over West Africa. In the control simulation, on 24-h domain average, dust has a cooling effect (−6.11 W/m2 at the surface, a warming effect (6.94 W/m2 in the atmosphere, and a relatively small TOA forcing (0.83 W/m2. Dust modifies the surface energy budget and atmospheric diabatic heating and hence causes lower atmospheric cooling in the daytime but warming in the nighttime. As a result, atmospheric stability is increased in the daytime and reduced in the nighttime, leading to a reduction of late afternoon precipitation by up to 0.14 mm/h (25% and an increase of nocturnal and early morning precipitation by up to 0.04 mm/h (45% over the WAM region. Dust-induced reduction of diurnal precipitation variation improves the simulated diurnal cycle of precipitation when compared to measurements. However, daily precipitation is only changed by a relatively small amount (−0.17 mm/day or −4%. The dust-induced change of WAM precipitation is not sensitive to interannual monsoon variability. On the other hand, sensitivity simulations show that, from weaker to stronger absorbing dust representing the uncertainty in dust solar absorptivity, dust longwave warming effect in the nighttime surpasses its shortwave cooling effect in the daytime at the surface, leading to a less stable atmosphere associated with more convective precipitation in the nighttime. As a result, the dust-induced change of daily WAM precipitation varies from a significant reduction of −0.52 mm/day (−12%, weaker absorbing dust to a small increase of 0.03 mm/day (1%, stronger absorbing dust. This variation originates from the competition between dust impact on daytime and nighttime

  20. Nong Thale Pron - a key site from southern Thailand for studying monsoon variability during the past 15000 years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bredberg, Camilla; Chawchai, Sakonvan; Chabangborn, Akkaneewut; Kylander, Malin; Fritz, Sherilyn; Reimer, Paula J.; Wohlfarth, Barbara

    2014-05-01

    Studies of marine sediments, cave speleothemes, annually laminated corals, and tree rings from Asian monsoon regions have added knowledge to our understanding of the factors that control inter-annual to millennial monsoon variability in the past and have provided important constraints for climate modeling scenarios. In contrast, the spatial and temporal pattern of sub-millennial scale monsoon variability and its impact on land cover in SE Asia are still unresolved. This shortcoming stems from the fact that temporally well-resolved paleo-environmental studies are missing from large parts of SE Asia, especially from Thailand. Given that global and regional climate models are increasingly using terrestrial paleo- data to test their performance, past changes in land cover are therefore important variables to better understand feedbacks between different Earth systems. We obtained sediments from Lake Nong Thale Pron, in southern Thailand (8º 10`N, 99 º23`E; 380 m.asl). The aim of our study is to reconstruct lake status changes and to evaluate whether the extent of these changes are linked to known shifts in monsoon intensity and variability. Preliminary results show that lake infilling started more than 15,000 years ago and that the sediments cover the last deglaciation and the Holocene. Current analyses include Itrax XRF core scanning, loss-on-ignition (LOI at 950 and 550ºC), CN elemental and isotopic composition. We expect that our results will be able to give a picture of how the lake's status has changed over time and whether the extent of these changes is linked to known shifts in monsoon intensity and variability.

  1. Interdecadal Variability of the East Asian Summer Monsoon and Associated Atmospheric Circulations

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZENG Gang; SUN Zhaobo; Wei-Chyung WANG; MIN Jinzhong

    2007-01-01

    Based on the National Centers for Environmental Prediction and National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis data from 1950-1999, interdecadal variability of the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) and its associated atmospheric circulations are investigated. The EASM exhibits a distinct interdecadal variation, with stronger (weaker) summer monsoon maintained from 1950-1964 (1976-1997).In the former case, there is an enhanced Walker cell in the eastern Pacific and an anti-Walker cell in the western Pacific. The associated ascending motion resides in the central Pacific, which flows eastward and westward in the upper troposphere, descending in the eastern and western ends of the Pacific basin. At the same time, an anomalous East Asian Hadley Cell (EAHC) is found to connect the low-latitude and mid-latitude systems in East Asia, which strengthens the EASM. The descending branch of the EAHC lies in the west part of the anti-Walker cell, flowing northward in the lower troposphere and then ascending at the south of Lake Baikal (40°-50°N, 95°-115°E) before returning to low latitudes in the upper troposphere,thus strengthening the EASM.The relationship between the EASM and SST in the eastern tropical Pacific is also discussed. A possible mechanism is proposed to link interdecadal variation of the EASM with the eastern tropical Pacific SST. A warmer sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) therein induces anomalous ascending motion in the eastern Pacific, resulting in a weaker Walker cell, and at the same time inducing an anomalous Walker cell in the western Pacific and an enhanced EAHC, leading to a weaker EASM. Furthermore, the interdecadal variation of summer precipitation over North China is found to be strongly regulated by the velocity potential over the south of Lake Baikal through enhancing and reducing the regional vertical motions.

  2. Extratropical influences on the inter-annual variability of South-Asian monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Syed, F. S.; Yoo, J. H.; Körnich, H.; Kucharski, F.

    2012-04-01

    The effects of extratropical dynamics on the interannual variations in South-Asian Monsoon (SAM) are examined. Based on NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and CRU precipitation data, a conditional maximum covariance analysis is performed on sea level pressure, 200 hPa geopotential heights and the SAM rainfall by removing the linear effects of El-Niño Southern Oscillation from the fields. It is found that two modes provide a strong connection between the upper-level circulation in the Atlantic/European region and SAM rainfall: the Circumglobal Teleconnection (CGT) and the Summer North Atlantic Oscillation (SNAO). The structures in the 200 hPa heights of both modes in the Atlantic region are similar in the Atlantic region, and their southeastward extension to South Asia (SA) also corresponds to upper-level ridges (in their positive phases) in slightly different positions. Nevertheless, the influence of both modes on SAM rainfall is distinct. Whereas a positive CGT is related to a widespread increase of rainfall in SAM, a positive SNAO is related to a precipitation dipole with its positive phase over Pakistan and the negative phase over northern India. The physical mechanisms for the influence of CGT and SNAO on SAM are related to the upper-level geopotential anomaly which affects the amplitude and position of the low-level convergence. The small displacements of the centers of these responses and the low level cold advection from the north east of SA in case of SNAO explain the differences in the corresponding SAM rainfall distributions. These findings are confirmed with the relatively high-resolution coupled climate model EC-Earth, which gives confidence in the physical basis and robustness of these extratropical variability modes and their influence on the South-Asian monsoon rainfall.

  3. Model Interpretation of Climate Signals: Application to the Asian Monsoon Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, William K. M.

    2002-01-01

    This is an invited review paper intended to be published as a Chapter in a book entitled "The Global Climate System: Patterns, Processes and Teleconnections" Cambridge University Press. The author begins with an introduction followed by a primer of climate models, including a description of various modeling strategies and methodologies used for climate diagnostics and predictability studies. Results from the CLIVAR Monsoon Model Intercomparison Project (MMIP) were used to illustrate the application of the strategies to modeling the Asian monsoon. It is shown that state-of-the art atmospheric GCMs have reasonable capability in simulating the seasonal mean large scale monsoon circulation, and response to El Nino. However, most models fail to capture the climatological as well as interannual anomalies of regional scale features of the Asian monsoon. These include in general over-estimating the intensity and/or misplacing the locations of the monsoon convection over the Bay of Bengal, and the zones of heavy rainfall near steep topography of the Indian subcontinent, Indonesia, and Indo-China and the Philippines. The intensity of convection in the equatorial Indian Ocean is generally weaker in models compared to observations. Most important, an endemic problem in all models is the weakness and the lack of definition of the Mei-yu rainbelt of the East Asia, in particular the part of the Mei-yu rainbelt over the East China Sea and southern Japan are under-represented. All models seem to possess certain amount of intraseasonal variability, but the monsoon transitions, such as the onset and breaks are less defined compared with the observed. Evidences are provided that a better simulation of the annual cycle and intraseasonal variability is a pre-requisite for better simulation and better prediction of interannual anomalies.

  4. Regional boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation over Indian Ocean and Western Pacific: comparison and predictability study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Sun-Seon; Wang, Bin

    2016-04-01

    The boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) has two major activity centers, the northern Indian Ocean and tropical Western North Pacific, which dominate the monsoon intraseasonal variability over South Asia and East Asia, respectively. The spatial-temporal structures of BSISO over the Indian Ocean (10°S-30°N, 60°-105°E) (IOISO) and Western Pacific (10°S-30°N, 105°-150°E) (WPISO) are examined by corresponding the leading modes of daily OLR and 850-hPa zonal wind (U850). The IOISO features a northeastward propagation with a 30-45 days energy peak and the first principal component (PC1) has maximum variance in May, while the WPISO propagates northward with a broad spectral peak on 10-60 days and the PC1 has maximum variance in August. Because of the large regional differences, two regional indices, the IOISO index and WPISO index, are defined by their corresponding first two leading PCs. The combined IOISO-WPISO index captures about 30 % (10 %) of U850 (OLR) daily variance over the entire IO-WP region (10°S-30°N, 60°-150°E), which doubles that captured by the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) index (Wheeler and Hendon 2004) and is 50 % higher than that captured by the BSISO index (Lee et al. 2013). The combined index also shows superior performance in representing biweekly and pentad-mean variations in the Asian-Pacific summer monsoon region (north of 10°N). The predictability/prediction skill and simulated principal modes of two regional BSISO indices are explored by using data derived from the Intraseasonal Variability Hindcast Experiment project. The major regional modes are reasonably well captured, but the forecasted fractional variances of the leading modes and variability center's locations exhibit significant deficiencies. The multi-model mean estimate of the predictability is 40-45 days for the IOISO index, whereas 33-37 days for the WPISO index. The less predictable WPISO is likely due to the existence of its significant biweekly component

  5. Interdecadal changes in the Asian winter monsoon variability and its relationship with ENSO and AO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yun, Kyung-Sook; Seo, Ye-Won; Ha, Kyung-Ja; Lee, June-Yi; Kajikawa, Yoshiyuki

    2014-08-01

    Interdecadal changes in the Asian winter monsoon (AWM) variability are investigated using three surface air temperature datasets for the 55-year period of 1958-2012 from (1) the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis 1 (NCEP), (2) combined datasets from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) 40-yr reanalysis and interim data (ERA), and (3) Japanese 55-year reanalysis (JRA). Particular attention has been paid to the first four empirical orthogonal function (EOF) modes of the AWM temperature variability that together account for 64% of the total variance and have been previously identified as predictable modes. The four modes are characterized as follows: the first mode by a southern warming over the Indo-western Pacific Ocean associated with a gradually increasing basin-wide warming trend; the second mode by northern warming with the interdecadal change after the late 1980s; the third and fourth modes by north-south triple pattern, which reveal a phase shift after the late 1970s. The three reanalyses agree well with each other when producing the first three modes, but show large discrepancy in capturing both spatial and temporal characteristics of the fourth mode. It is therefore considered that the first three leading modes are more reliable than the rest higher modes. Considerable interdecadal changes are found mainly in the first two modes. While the first mode shows gradually decreasing variance, the second mode exhibits larger interannual variance during the recent decade. In addition, after the late 1970s, the first mode has a weakening relationship with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) whereas the second mode has strengthening association with the Artic Oscillation (AO). This indicates an increasing role of AO but decreasing role of ENSO on the AWM variability. A better understanding of the interdecadal change in the dominant modes would contribute toward advancing in

  6. Spatio-temporal variability and predictability of summer monsoon onset over the Philippines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moron, V. [Universite d' Aix-Marseille I, UFR des Sciences Geographiques et de l' Amenagement, Aix en Provence (France); CEREGE, UMR 6635 CNRS, Europole Mediterraneen de l' Arbois, BP 80, Aix en Provence (France); Institut Universitaire de France, Paris (France); Columbia University, International Research Institute for Climate and Society, New York, NY (United States); Lucero, A.; Hilario, F. [Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration, Manila (Philippines); Lyon, B.; Robertson, A.W.; DeWitt, D. [Columbia University, International Research Institute for Climate and Society, New York, NY (United States)

    2009-12-15

    The spatio-temporal variability of boreal summer monsoon onset over the Philippines is studied through the analysis of daily rainfall data across a network of 76 gauges for the period 1977 to 2004 and the pentad Merged Analysis of Precipitation from the US Climate Prediction Center from 1979 to 2006. The onset date is defined using a local agronomic definition, namely the first wet day of a 5-day period receiving at least 40 mm without any 15-day dry spell receiving <5 mm in the 30 days following the start of that period. The onset is found to occur rather abruptly across the western Philippines around mid-May on average and is associated with the set-up of a ''classical'' monsoonal circulation with low-level easterlies subsequently veering to southerly, and then southwesterly. The onset manifests itself merely as a seasonal increase of rainfall over the eastern Philippines, where rainfall occurs throughout most of the year. Interannual variability of the onset date is shown to consist of a spatially coherent large-scale component, rather similar over the western and eastern Philippines, with a moderate to high amount of local-scale (i.e. station scale) noise. In consequence, the large-scale signal can be easily retrieved from any sample of at least 5-6 stations across the network although the local-scale coherence and fingerprint of the large-scale signal of the onset date are found to be stronger over the central Philippines, roughly from Southern Luzon to Northern Mindanao. The seasonal predictability of local onset is analyzed through a cross-validated canonical correlation analysis using tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean sea surface temperature in March and the 850 hPa May wind field from dynamical forecast models as predictors. The regional-scale onset, defined as the average of standardized local-scale anomalies in onset date, shows good predictive skill (r {approx} 0.8). Moreover, most of the stations show weak to moderate skill (median

  7. Monthly and Diurnal Variability of Rain Rate and Rain Attenuation during the Monsoon Period in Malaysia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    U.Kesavan

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Rain is the major source of attenuation for microwave propagation above 10 GHz. In tropical and equatorial regions where the rain intensity is higher, designing a terrestrial and earth-to-satellite microwave links is very critical and challenging at these frequencies. This paper presents the preliminary results of rain effects in a 23 GHz terrestrial point-to-point communication link 1.3km long. The experimental test bed had been set up at Skudai, Johor Bahru, Malaysia. In this area, a monsoon equatorial climate prevails and the rainfall rate can reach values well above 100mm/h with significant monthly and diurnal variability. Hence, it is necessary to implement a mitigation technique for maintaining an adequate radio link performance for the action of very heavy rain. Since we now know that the ULPC (Up Link Power Control cannot guarantee the desired performance, a solution based on frequency band diversity is proposed in this paper. Here, a secondary radio link operating in a frequency not affected by rain (C band for instance is placed parallel with the main link. Under no rain or light rain conditions, the secondary link carries without priority radio signals. When there is an outage of the main link due to rain, the secondary link assumes the priority traffic. The outcome of the research shows a solution for higher operating frequencies during rainy events.

  8. Relationships between interdecadal variability and extreme precipitation events in South America during the monsoon season

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grimm, Alice; Laureanti, Nicole; Rodakoviski, Rodrigo

    2016-04-01

    This study aims to clarify the impact of interdecadal climate oscillations (periods of 8 years and longer) on the frequency of extreme precipitation events over South America in the monsoon season (austral spring and summer), and determine the influence of these oscillations on the daily precipitation frequency distribution. Interdecadal variability modes of precipitation during the monsoon season are provided by a continental-scale rotated empirical orthogonal function analysis for the 60 years period 1950-2009. The main disclosed modes are robust, since they are reproduced for different periods. They can produce differences around 50% in monthly precipitation between opposite phases. Oceanic and atmospheric anomalous fields associated with these modes indicate that they have physical basis. The first modes in spring and summer display highest correlation with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) SST mode, while the second modes have strongest correlation with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) SST mode. However, there are also other influences on these modes. As the most dramatic consequences of climate variability stem from its influence on the frequency of extreme precipitation events, it is important to also assess this influence, since variations in monthly or seasonal precipitation do not necessarily imply significant alterations in their extreme events. This study seeks to answer the questions: i) Do opposite phases of the main interdecadal modes of seasonal precipitation produce significant anomalies in the frequency of extreme events? ii) Does the interdecadal variability of the frequency of extreme events show similar spatial and temporal structure as the interdecadal variability of the seasonal precipitation? iii) Does the interdecadal variability change the daily precipitation probability distribution between opposite phases? iv) In this case, which ranges of daily precipitation are most affected? The significant anomalies of the extreme

  9. Summer Monsoon and Annual Variability of Sea Surface Slope and Their Effects on Alongshore Current near Qingdao

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    蒲书箴; 程军; 张义钧; 石强; 骆敬新; 范文静

    2004-01-01

    Based on the monthly mean sea level data obtained from 3 years′ (1999-2001) tide-gauge measurements, the annual variability of the sea level near Qingdao and Jiaozhou Bay is studied and discussed in this paper. Results show that the sea surface height at all the tide gauges becomes higher in summer than that in winter,with an obvious seasonal variability.Furthermore the sea surface height measured at a short distance outside the bay is lower than that in thebay, showing a sea surface slope downward from north to south. The reasons for the formation of the slope are explained as well, The dynamic action ofthe summer monsoon and the sea surface slope, and their effects on the monthly mean current are studied by means of dynamics principles. The importance of the summer monsoon and the pressure gradient generated by the sea surface slope, with their effects on the alongshore current, is pointed out and emphasized in this paper.

  10. Maximum covariance analysis to identify intraseasonal oscillations over tropical Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barreto, Naurinete J. C.; Mesquita, Michel d. S.; Mendes, David; Spyrides, Maria H. C.; Pedra, George U.; Lucio, Paulo S.

    2017-09-01

    A reliable prognosis of extreme precipitation events in the tropics is arguably challenging to obtain due to the interaction of meteorological systems at various time scales. A pivotal component of the global climate variability is the so-called intraseasonal oscillations, phenomena that occur between 20 and 100 days. The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), which is directly related to the modulation of convective precipitation in the equatorial belt, is considered the primary oscillation in the tropical region. The aim of this study is to diagnose the connection between the MJO signal and the regional intraseasonal rainfall variability over tropical Brazil. This is achieved through the development of an index called Multivariate Intraseasonal Index for Tropical Brazil (MITB). This index is based on Maximum Covariance Analysis (MCA) applied to the filtered daily anomalies of rainfall data over tropical Brazil against a group of covariates consisting of: outgoing longwave radiation and the zonal component u of the wind at 850 and 200 hPa. The first two MCA modes, which were used to create the { MITB}_1 and { MITB}_2 indices, represent 65 and 16 % of the explained variance, respectively. The combined multivariate index was able to satisfactorily represent the pattern of intraseasonal variability over tropical Brazil, showing that there are periods of activation and inhibition of precipitation connected with the pattern of MJO propagation. The MITB index could potentially be used as a diagnostic tool for intraseasonal forecasting.

  11. Evaporation-precipitation changes in the eastern Arabian Sea for the last 68 ka: Implications on monsoon variability

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Govil, P.; Naidu, P.D.

    , reconstructions of monsoon variability on glacial, interglacial and millennial time scales have been carried out using sediment cores from the western Arabian Sea (WAS). Most of these are based on indices for upwelling [Prell, 1984; Anderson and Prell, 1993.... This is National Institute of Oceanography Contribution….. References Altabet, M. A., M. J. Higginson, and D. W. Murray (2002), The effect of millennial-scale changes in Arabian Sea denitrification on atmospheric CO 2 , Nature, 415, 159–162. Anand, P., D...

  12. The detection of post-monsoon tropospheric ozone variability over south Asia using IASI data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Barret

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available The ozone (O3 variability over south Asia during the 2008 post-monsoon season has been assessed using measurements from the MetOP-A/IASI instrument and O3 profiles retrieved with the SOftware for a Fast Retrieval of IASI Data (SOFRID. The information content study and error analyses carried out in this paper show that IASI Level 1 data can be used to retrieve tropospheric O3 columns (surface-225 hPa and UTLS columns (225–70 hPa with errors smaller than 20%. Validation with global radiosonde O3 profiles obtained during a period of 6 months show the excellent agreement between IASI and radiosonde for the UTLS with correlation coefficient R > 0.91 and good agreement in the troposphere with correlation coefficient R > 0.74. For both the UTLS and the troposphere Relative Standard Deviations (RSD are lower than 23%. The temporal variability of the vertical profile of O3 has first been observed locally near Hyderabad in central India with in situ measurements from the MOZAIC program. These measurements obtained from airborne instruments show that tropospheric O3 is steadily elevated during most of the studied period with the exception of two sharp drops following the crossing of tropical storms over India. Lagrangian simulations with the FLEXPART model indicate that elevated O3 concentrations in the middle troposphere near Hyderabad are associated with the transport of UT air-masses that have followed the Subtropical Westerly Jet (SWJ and subsided over northern India together with boundary layer polluted air-masses transported from the Indo-gangetic plain by the north-easterly trades. Low O3 concentrations result from the uplift and westward transport of pristine air-masses from the marine boundary layer of the Bay of Bengal by tropical storms. In order to extend the analysis of tropospheric O3 variability to the whole of south Asia, we

  13. Shift in Indian summer monsoon onset during 1976/1977

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahana, A. S.; Ghosh, Subimal; Ganguly, Auroop; Murtugudde, Raghu

    2015-05-01

    The Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) contributes nearly 80% of the annual rainfall over India and has a significant influence on the country’s gross domestic product through the agricultural sector. Onset of the ISMR displays substantial interannual variability and controls the crop calendar and hence the agricultural output. This variability is traditionally linked to sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the tropical Pacific Ocean. The tropical Pacific SST underwent a regime shift during 1976/77. We report a prominent delay in the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) onset following the regime shift. The onset dates are computed with the Hydrologic Onset and Withdrawal Index, based on vertically integrated moisture transport over the Arabian Sea (AS). The shift in onset is found to be due to the change in moisture availability over the AS. A delay in the development of easterly vertical shear reduces northward-propagating intraseasonal variability during May-June, limiting the moisture supply from the equatorial Indian Ocean (IO) to the AS. This, along with enhanced precipitation over the IO during the pre-monsoon, drives a reduction in moisture availability over the AS region from pre- to post-1976/77, delaying the ISM onset in recent decades. Our findings highlight the need for the re-assessment of the crop calendar in India, which is now based on the mean onset date computed from long-term data, without considering the regime shift or trends in onset.

  14. Possible role of warm SST bias in the simulation of boreal summer monsoon in SINTEX-F2 coupled model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Joseph, Susmitha; Sahai, A.K.; Goswami, B.N. [Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune (India); Terray, Pascal; Masson, Sebastian [LOCEAN, Paris (France); Luo, J.J. [RIGC, Yokohama (Japan)

    2012-04-15

    Reasonably realistic climatology of atmospheric and oceanic parameters over the Asian monsoon region is a pre-requisite for models used for monsoon studies. The biases in representing these features lead to problems in representing the strength and variability of Indian summer monsoon (ISM). This study attempts to unravel the ability of a state-of-the-art coupled model, SINTEX-F2, in simulating these characteristics of ISM. The coupled model reproduces the precipitation and circulation climatology reasonably well. However, the mean ISM is weaker than observed, as evident from various monsoon indices. A wavenumber-frequency spectrum analysis reveals that the model intraseasonal oscillations are also weaker-than-observed. One possible reason for the weaker-than-observed ISM arises from the warm bias, over the tropical oceans, especially over the equatorial western Indian Ocean, inherent in the model. This warm bias is not only confined to the surface layers, but also extends through most of the troposphere. As a result of this warm bias, the coupled model has too weak meridional tropospheric temperature gradient to drive a realistic monsoon circulation. This in turn leads to a weakening of the moisture gradient as well as the vertical shear of easterlies required for sustained northward propagation of rain band, resulting in weak monsoon circulation. It is also noted that the recently documented interaction between the interannual and intraseasonal variabilities of ISM through very long breaks (VLBs) is poor in the model. This seems to be related to the inability of the model in simulating the eastward propagating Madden-Julian oscillation during VLBs. (orig.)

  15. A Continuous Record of Indian Summer Monsoon Variability through the Holocene from Lake Sediments in Yunnan, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hillman, A. L.; Abbott, M. B.; Yu, J.

    2015-12-01

    Continuous terrestrial archives of the Indian Summer Monsoon through the Holocene are lacking, yet critical to providing a long-term perspective of hydroclimate variability. Here we present an 8,000 year sediment record from Xing Yun Lake in Yunnan, China that provides a semi-quantitative estimate of lake level change using stable isotopes of authigenic calcite as well as within-lake productivity using stable isotopes of organic matter. Substantial drops in lake level occur at 6,600 years BP, consistent with previous studies of a weaker monsoon system in the mid-Holocene due to declining summer insolation. Lake levels stabilize at 4,700 years BP and remain steady due to the topography surrounding the lake. From 5,600 to 5,100 and from 4,600 to 4,000 years BP, primary productivity decreases and is coincident with significant regional aridity as well as cooler Western Tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures. Variability in the stable isotopes of both calcite and organic matter after 1,500 years BP is primarily controlled by human activities. This study shows broad agreement with previous work on the Tibetan Plateau and provides one of the first continuous records of lake hydrologic balance from a crucial region affected by the Indian Summer Monsoon.

  16. Multi-Decadal Modulations in the Variability of the East Asian Summer Monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakamura, H.; Machimura, T.; Ogawa, S.; Kosaka, Y.; Nishii, K.; Miyasaka, T.

    2015-12-01

    The East Asian summer monsoon fluctuates from its climatological activity on monthly and interannual time scales, and the most dominant pattern of the variability is known as the Pacific-Japan (PJ) pattern. Characterized by a meridional teleconnection in anomalous activity of the Meiyu/Baiu rainband, tropical storms and a surface subtropical anticyclone (the Bonin High) in between, the PJ pattern exerts substantial influence on summertime climatic conditions over East Asia and the western North Pacific. Despite the recent warming trend observed in its background state, no assessment thus far has been made on how substantially the PJ has undergone, if any, multi-decadal modulations in its structure and/or dominance. Through an EOF analysis applied to a new dataset of global atmospheric reanalysis (JRA-55), the predominance of the PJ pattern is confirmed as being extracted in the leading EOF of lower-tropospheric monthly vorticity anomalies over 55 recent years. Both efficient barotropic/baroclinic energy conversion from the climatological-mean state and efficient generation of available potential energy through anomalous convective activity over the tropical western Pacific are shown to be essential for the maintenance of the monthly atmospheric anomalies of the PJ pattern over the entire 55-year period. At the same time, however, the same EOF analysis as above but applied separately to each of the sub-periods reveals a distinct signature of long-term modulations in amplitude and thus the dominance of the PJ pattern. While being extracted in the first EOF up to the 1980s, the PJ pattern is extracted in the second EOF in the period since the 1990s with marked reductions in both the variance fraction explained and the efficiency of energy conversion/generation. The resultant modulations of the summertime meridional teleconnection are also discussed with implications for future changes.

  17. Tropospheric ozone variability during the East Asian summer monsoon as observed by satellite (IASI), aircraft (MOZAIC) and ground stations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Safieddine, Sarah; Boynard, Anne; Hao, Nan; Huang, Fuxiang; Wang, Lili; Ji, Dongsheng; Barret, Brice; Ghude, Sachin D.; Coheur, Pierre-François; Hurtmans, Daniel; Clerbaux, Cathy

    2016-08-01

    Satellite measurements from the thermal Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI), aircraft data from the MOZAIC/IAGOS project, as well as observations from ground-based stations, are used to assess the tropospheric ozone (O3) variability during the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM). Six years 2008-2013 of IASI data analysis reveals the ability of the instrument to detect the onset and the progression of the monsoon seen by a decrease in the tropospheric 0-6 km O3 column due to the EASM, and to reproduce this decrease from one year to the other. The year-to-year variability is found to be mainly dependent on meteorology. Focusing on the period of May-August 2011, taken as an example year, IASI data show clear inverse relationship between tropospheric 0-6 km O3 on one hand and meteorological parameters such as cloud cover, relative humidity and wind speed, on the other hand. Aircraft data from the MOZAIC/IAGOS project for the EASM of 2008-2013 are used to validate the IASI data and to assess the effect of the monsoon on the vertical distribution of the tropospheric O3 at different locations. Results show good agreement with a correlation coefficient of 0.73 (12 %) between the 0-6 km O3 column derived from IASI and aircraft data. IASI captures very well the inter-annual variation of tropospheric O3 observed by the aircraft data over the studied domain. Analysis of vertical profiles of the aircraft data shows a decrease in the tropospheric O3 that is more important in the free troposphere than in the boundary layer and at 10-20° N than elsewhere. Ground station data at different locations in India and China show a spatiotemporal dependence on meteorology during the monsoon, with a decrease up to 22 ppbv in Hyderabad, and up to 5 ppbv in the North China Plain.

  18. A new centennial index to study the Western North Pacific Monsoon decadal variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vega, Inmaculada; Gómez-Delgado, F. de Paula; Gallego, David; Ribera, Pedro; Peña-Ortiz, Cristina; García-Herrera, Ricardo

    2016-04-01

    The concept of the Western North Pacific Summer Monsoon (WNPSM) appeared for the first time in 1987. It is, unlike the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) and the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM), an oceanic monsoon mostly driven by the meridional gradient of sea surface temperature. Its circulation is characterized by a northwest-southeast oriented monsoon trough with intense precipitation and low-level southwesterlies and upper-tropospheric easterlies in the region [100°-130° E, 5°-15°N]. Up to now, the primary index to characterize the WNPSM has been the Western North Pacific Monsoon Index (WNPMI) which covers the 1949-2013 period. The original WNPMI was defined as the difference of 850-hPa westerlies between two regions: D1 [5°-15°N, 100°-130°E] and D2 [20°-30°N, 110°-140°E]. Both domains are included in the main historical ship routes circumnavigating Asia for hundreds of years. Many of the logbooks of these ships have been preserved in historical archives and they usually contain daily observations of wind force and direction. Therefore, it has been possible to compute a new index of instrumental character, which reconstructs the WNPSM back to the middle of the 19th Century, by using solely historical wind direction records preserved in logbooks. We define the monthly Western North Pacific Directional Index (WNPDI) as the sum of the persistence of the low-level westerly winds in D1 and easterly winds in D2. The advantages of this new index are its nature (instrumental) and its length (1849-2013), which is 100 years longer than the WNPMI (which was based on reanalysis data). Our WNPDI shows a high correlation (r=+0.87, pCompetitividad through the project INCITE (CGL2013-44530-P, BES-2014-069733).

  19. Tropical-Extratropical Interactions and Intrasasonal Oscillations in the Indian Monsoon System in a Warmer Planet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carvalho, L. V.; Jones, C.; Cannon, F.; Norris, J.

    2015-12-01

    The India summer monsoon (ISM) experiences long periods of wet and dry conditions frequently associated with floods and long dry spells. These events are largely governed by northward propagating boreal summer monsoon intraseasonal oscillations (MISO). Here we investigate intraseasonal variability of the ISM in the climate of the 20th century using the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (1979-2013) and examine future scenarios of climate change using models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase-5 project. ISM is characterized with a large-scale index obtained by performing combined EOF analysis of precipitation, low level circulation, specific humidity and temperature. This index realistically defines the monsoon's onset and withdrawal, is well correlated with seasonal precipitation in India and exhibits variance on intraseasonal timescales that are related to MISO and extreme wet and dry conditions in India. With similar approach we investigate the skill of the CMIP5 models in realistically simulating MISO in the 'historic' run (1951-2005) and examine projected changes in the amplitude and persistence these events in the high-emission representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) (2006-2100). MISO is well characterized in CMIP5 models that indicate significant increase in the intensity and frequency of extremely dry and wet conditions affecting India by 2050. We show that the main mechanism driving MISO in CMIP5 models are linked to the propagation of extratropical wave trains and interactions with the tropics. In a warmer planet, the increase in polar temperatures weakens the tropical-extratropical temperature gradient and decreases the intensity of the upper tropospheric jet. These changes in the jet and in the baroclinic structure of the atmosphere result in enhanced extratropical wave activity and more extreme events. We use a wave tracking algorithm to demonstrate these differences and explore physical and dynamical mechanisms underlying

  20. Role of low level flow on the summer monsoon rainfall over the Indian subcontinent during two contrasting monsoon years

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Swapna, P.; RameshKumar, M.R.

    The summer monsoon rainfall over the Indian subcontinent shows 1 large inter-annual variability in three important aspects, namely, the onset date, quantum of monsoon rainfall and the monsoon activity within the monsoon (June - September) period...

  1. Multi-scale Holocene Asian monsoon variability deduced from a twin-stalagmite record in southwestern China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Wei; Wang, Yongjin; Cheng, Hai; Edwards, Richard Lawrence; Shen, Chuan-Chou; Liu, Dianbing; Shao, Qingfeng; Deng, Chao; Zhang, Zhenqiu; Wang, Quan

    2016-07-01

    We present two isotopic (δ18O and δ13C) sequences of a twin-stalagmite from Zhuliuping Cave, southwestern China, with 230Th dates from 14.6 to 4.6 ka. The stalagmite δ18O record characterizes orbital- to decadal-scale variability of Asian summer monsoon (ASM) intensity, with the Holocene optimum period (HOP) between 9.8 and 6.8 ka BP which is reinforced by its co-varying δ13C data. The large multi-decadal scale amplitude of the cave δ18O indicates its high sensitivity to climate change. Four centennial-scale weak ASM events during the early Holocene are centered at 11.2, 10.8, 9.1 and 8.2 ka. They can be correlated to cold periods in the northern high latitudes, possibly resulting from rapid dynamics of atmospheric circulation associated with North Atlantic cooling. The 8.2 ka event has an amplitude more than two-thirds that of the Younger Dryas (YD), and is significantly stronger than other cave records in the Asia monsoon region, likely indicating a more severe dry climate condition at the cave site. At the end of the YD event, the δ13C record lags the δ18O record by 300-500 yr, suggesting a multi-centennial slow response of vegetation and soil processes to monsoon enhancement.

  2. Processes of 30-90 days sea surface temperature variability in the northern Indian Ocean during boreal summer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vialard, J. [Univerite P. et M. Curie, Laboratoire d' Oceanographie Experimentation et Approches Numeriques (LOCEAN), Case 100, CNRS, IRD, Paris Cedex 05 (France); Jayakumar, A.; Gnanaseelan, C.; Goswami, B.N. [Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune (India); Lengaigne, M. [Univerite P. et M. Curie, Laboratoire d' Oceanographie Experimentation et Approches Numeriques (LOCEAN), Case 100, CNRS, IRD, Paris Cedex 05 (France); CSIR, National Institute of Oceanography, Goa (India); Sengupta, D. [Indian Institute of Sciences, Centre of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Bangalore (India)

    2012-05-15

    During summer, the northern Indian Ocean exhibits significant atmospheric intraseasonal variability associated with active and break phases of the monsoon in the 30-90 days band. In this paper, we investigate mechanisms of the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) signature of this atmospheric variability, using a combination of observational datasets and Ocean General Circulation Model sensitivity experiments. In addition to the previously-reported intraseasonal SST signature in the Bay of Bengal, observations show clear SST signals in the Arabian Sea related to the active/break cycle of the monsoon. As the atmospheric intraseasonal oscillation moves northward, SST variations appear first at the southern tip of India (day 0), then in the Somali upwelling region (day 10), northern Bay of Bengal (day 19) and finally in the Oman upwelling region (day 23). The Bay of Bengal and Oman signals are most clearly associated with the monsoon active/break index, whereas the relationship with signals near Somali upwelling and the southern tip of India is weaker. In agreement with previous studies, we find that heat flux variations drive most of the intraseasonal SST variability in the Bay of Bengal, both in our model (regression coefficient, 0.9, against {proportional_to}0.25 for wind stress) and in observations (0.8 regression coefficient); {proportional_to}60% of the heat flux variation is due do shortwave radiation and {proportional_to}40% due to latent heat flux. On the other hand, both observations and model results indicate a prominent role of dynamical oceanic processes in the Arabian Sea. Wind-stress variations force about 70-100% of SST intraseasonal variations in the Arabian Sea, through modulation of oceanic processes (entrainment, mixing, Ekman pumping, lateral advection). Our {proportional_to}100 km resolution model suggests that internal oceanic variability (i.e. eddies) contributes substantially to intraseasonal variability at small-scale in the Somali upwelling region

  3. Response of Asian summer monsoon duration to orbital forcing under glacial and interglacial conditions: Implication for precipitation variability in geological records

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Zhengguo

    2016-05-01

    The responses of Asian summer monsoon and associated precipitation to orbital forcing have been intensively explored during the past 30 years, but debate still exists regarding whether or not the Asian monsoon is controlled by northern or southern summer insolation on the precessional timescale. Various modeling studies have been conducted that support the potential roles played by the insolation in both hemispheres. Among these previous studies, however, the main emphasis has been on the Asian monsoon intensity, with the response of monsoon duration having received little consideration. In the present study, the response of the rainy season duration over different monsoon areas to orbital forcing and its contribution to total annual precipitation are evaluated using an atmospheric general circulation model. The results show that the durations of the rainy seasons, especially their withdrawal, in northern East Asia and the India-Bay of Bengal region, are sensitive to precession change under interglacial-like conditions. Compared to those during stronger boreal summer insolation, the Asian monsoon-associated rainy seasons at weaker insolation last longer, although the peak intensity is smaller. This longer duration of rainfall, which results from the change in land-ocean thermal contrast associated with atmospheric diabatic heating, can counterbalance the weakened intensity in certain places and induce an opposite response of total annual precipitation. However, the duration effect of Asian monsoon is limited under glacial-like conditions. Nevertheless, monsoon duration is a factor that can dominate the orbital-scale variability of Asian monsoon, alongside the intensity, and it should therefore receive greater attention when attempting to explain orbital-scale monsoon change.

  4. Biogeochemical variability in the central equatorial Indian Ocean during the monsoon transition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strutton, P. G.; Coles, V. J.; Hood, R. R.; Matear, R. J.; McPhaden, M. J.; Phillips, H. E.

    2015-04-01

    In this paper we examine time-series measurements of near-surface chlorophyll concentration from a mooring that was deployed at 80.5°E on the equator in the Indian Ocean in 2010. These data reveal at least six striking spikes in chlorophyll from October through December, at approximately 2-week intervals, that coincide with the development of the fall Wyrtki jets during the transition between the summer and winter monsoons. Concurrent meteorological and in situ physical measurements from the mooring reveal that the chlorophyll pulses are associated with the intensification of eastward winds at the surface and eastward currents in the mixed layer. These observations are inconsistent with upwelling dynamics as they occur in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, since eastward winds that force Wyrtki jet intensification should drive downwelling. The chlorophyll spikes could be explained by two alternative mechanisms: (1) turbulent entrainment of nutrients and/or chlorophyll from across the base of the mixed layer by wind stirring or Wyrtki jet-induced shear instability or (2) enhanced southward advection of high chlorophyll concentrations into the equatorial zone. The first mechanism is supported by the phasing and amplitude of the relationship between wind stress and chlorophyll, which suggests that the chlorophyll spikes are the result of turbulent entrainment driven by synoptic zonal wind events. The second mechanism is supported by the observation of eastward flows over the Chagos-Laccadive Ridge, generating high chlorophyll to the north of the equator. Occasional southward advection can then produce the chlorophyll spikes that are observed in the mooring record. Wind-forced biweekly mixed Rossby gravity waves are a ubiquitous feature of the ocean circulation in this region, and we examine the possibility that they may play a role in chlorophyll variability. Statistical analyses and results from the OFAM3 (Ocean Forecasting Australia Model, version 3) eddy

  5. Evaluating the influence of antecedent soil moisture on variability of the North American Monsoon precipitation in the coupled MM5/VIC modeling system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dennis P. Lettenmaier

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available The influence of antecedent soil moisture on North American monsoon system (NAMS precipitation variability was explored using the MM5 mesoscale model coupled with the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC land surface model. Sensitivity experiments were performed with extreme wet and dry initial soil moisture conditions for both the 1984 wet monsoon year and the 1989 dry year. The MM5-VIC model reproduced the key features of NAMS in 1984 and 1989 especially over northwestern Mexico. Our modeling results indicate that the land surface has memory of the initial soil wetness prescribed at the onset of the monsoon that persists over most of the region well into the monsoon season (e.g. until August. However, in contrast to the classical thermal contrast concept, where wetter soils lead to cooler surface temperatures, less land-sea thermal contrast, weaker monsoon circulations and less precipitation, the coupled model consistently demonstrated a positive soil moisture – precipitation feedback. Specifically, anomalously wet pre-monsoon soil moisture always lead to enhanced monsoon precipitation, and the reverse was also true. Both the large-scale circulation change and local land-atmospheric interactions in response to pre-monsoon soil moisture anomalies play important roles in the coupled model’s positive soil moisture – monsoon precipitation feedback. However, the former may be sensitive to the strength and location of the thermal anomalies, thus leaving open the possibility of both positive and negative soil moisture – precipitation feedbacks. Furthermore, our use of a regional model with prescribed large-scale circulation at the model boundaries leaves open the possibility that the model behavior may, to some extent, reflect its limited ability to adjust its large-scale circulation to the regional thermal changes.

  6. Decadal change in the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamaura, Tsuyoshi; Kajikawa, Yoshiyuki

    2016-06-01

    A decadal change in activity of the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) was identified at a broad scale. The change was more prominent during August-October in the boreal summer. The BSISO activity during 1999-2008 (P2) was significantly greater than that during 1984-1998 (P1). Compared to P1, convection in the BSISO was enhanced and the phase speed of northward-propagating convection was reduced in P2. Under background conditions, warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in P2 were apparent over the tropical Indian Ocean and the western tropical Pacific. The former supplied favorable conditions for the active convection of the BSISO, whereas the latter led to a strengthened Walker circulation through enhanced convection. This induced descending anomalies over the tropical Indian Ocean. Thermal convection tends to be suppressed by descending anomalies, whereas once an active BSISO signal enters the Indian Ocean, convection is enhanced through convective instability by positive SST anomalies. After P2, the BSISO activity was weakened during 2009-2014 (P3). Compared to P2, convective activity in the BSISO tended to be inactive over the southern tropical Indian Ocean in P3. The phase speed of the northward-propagating convection was accelerated. Under background conditions during P3, warmer SST anomalies over the maritime continent enhance convection, which strengthened the local Hadley circulation between the western tropical Pacific and the southern tropical Indian Ocean. Hence, the convection in the BSISO over the southern tropical Indian Ocean was suppressed. The decadal change in BSISO activity correlates with the variability in seasonal mean SST over the tropical Asian monsoon region, which suggests that it is possible to predict the decadal change.

  7. South Asian summer monsoon variability during the last ~54 kyrs inferred from surface water salinity and river run off proxies

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Gebregiorgis, D.; Hathorne, E.C.; Sijinkumar, A.V; Nath, B.N.; Nurnberg, D.; Frank, M.

    : Quat. Sci. Rev., vol.138; 2016; 6-15 South Asian Summer Monsoon variability during the last ~54 kyrs inferred from surface water salinity and river run off proxies D. Gebregiorgis1, E.C. Hathorne1, A.V. Sijinkumar2, B. Nagender Nath3, D. Nürnberg... leach with 100 μL 0.001 M HNO3 was applied and followed by two rinses with distilled water. Samples were dissolved in 0.075 M nitric acid (HNO3) (500 μL) assisted by sonication for 25 mins.   6 Finally samples were centrifuged for 4 mins at 13400 rpm...

  8. Antarctic link with East Asian summer monsoon variability during the Heinrich Stadial-Bølling interstadial transition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Hongbin; Griffiths, Michael L.; Huang, Junhua; Cai, Yanjun; Wang, Canfa; Zhang, Fan; Cheng, Hai; Ning, Youfeng; Hu, Chaoyong; Xie, Shucheng

    2016-11-01

    Previous research has shown a strong persistence for direct teleconnections between the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and high northern latitude climate variability during the last glacial and deglaciation, in particular between monsoon weakening and a reduced Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). However, less attention has been paid to EASM strengthening as the AMOC was reinvigorated following peak Northern Hemisphere (NH) cooling. Moreover, climate model simulations have suggested a strong role for Antarctic meltwater discharge in modulating northward heat transport and hence NH warming, yet the degree to which Southern Hemisphere (SH) climate anomalies impacted the Asian monsoon region is still unclear. Here we present a new stalagmite oxygen-isotope record from the EASM affected region of central China, which documents two prominent stages of increased 18O-depleted moisture delivery to the region through the transition from Heinrich Stadial 1 (HS1) to the Bølling-Allerød (B-A) interstadial; this is in general agreement with the other monsoonal records from both NH and SH mid to low latitudes. Through novel comparisons with a recent iceberg-rafted debris (IRD) record from the Southern Ocean, we propose that the two-stage EASM intensification observed in our speleothem records were linked with two massive Antarctic icesheet discharge (AID) events at ∼16.0 ka and ∼14.7 ka, immediately following the peak HS1 stadial event. Notably, the large increase in EASM intensity at the beginning of the HS1/B-A transition (∼16 ka) is relatively muted in the NH higher latitudes, and better aligns with the changes observed in the SH, indicating the Antarctic and Southern Ocean perturbations could have an active role in driving the initial EASM strengthening at this time. Indeed, Antarctic freshwater input to the Southern Ocean during these AID events would have cooled the surrounding surface waters and caused an expansion of sea ice, restricting the

  9. Stable isotopic signature of Australian monsoon controlled by regional convection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zwart, C.; Munksgaard, N. C.; Kurita, N.; Bird, M. I.

    2016-11-01

    The aim of this study was to identify the main meteorological drivers of rainfall isotopic variation in north Australia in order to improve the interpretation of isotopic proxy records in this region. An intense monitoring program was conducted during two monsoonal events that showed significant and systematic isotopic change over time. The results showed a close link between isotopic variation in precipitation and variability in monsoon conditions, associated with the presence of large convective envelopes propagating through the study site. The largest negative amplitudes in the isotopic signal were observed when eastward and westward moving precipitation systems within the convective envelope merged over the measurement site. This suggests that the amplitude of the isotopic signal is related to the size and activity of the convective envelope. The strong correlation between rainfall isotopic variation, regional outgoing longwave radiation and regional rainfall amount supports this conclusion. This is further strengthened by the strong relationship between isotopic variation and the integrated rainfall history of air masses prior to arriving at the measurement locations. A local amount effect was not significant and these findings support the interpretation of δ18O as proxy for regional climatic conditions rather than local rainfall amount. Meteorological parameters that characterize intra-seasonal variability of monsoon conditions were also found to be strongly linked to inter-seasonal variability of the monthly based δ18O values in the Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation (GNIP) database. This leads to the conclusion that information about the Australian monsoon variability can likely be inferred from the isotopic proxy record in North Australia on short (intra seasonal) and long (inter seasonal or longer) timescales.

  10. Cyclone trends constrain monsoon variability during Late Oligocene sea level highstands (Kachchh Basin, NW India)

    OpenAIRE

    Reuter, M.; W. E. Piller; M. Harzhauser; Kroh, A

    2013-01-01

    Important concerns about the consequences of climate change for India are the potential impact on tropical cyclones and the monsoon. Herein we present a sequence of fossil shell beds from the shallow-marine Maniyara Fort Formation (Kachcch Basin) as an indicator of tropical cyclone activity along the NW Indian coast during the Late Oligocene warming period (~27–24 Ma). Direct proxies providing information about the atmospheric circulation dynamics over the Indian subcontinent at this ...

  11. Cyclone trends constrain monsoon variability during late Oligocene sea level highstands (Kachchh Basin, NW India)

    OpenAIRE

    Reuter, M.; W. E. Piller; M. Harzhauser; Kroh, A

    2013-01-01

    Climate change has an unknown impact on tropical cyclones and the Asian monsoon. Herein we present a sequence of fossil shell beds from the shallow-marine Maniyara Fort Formation (Kachcch Basin) as a recorder of tropical cyclone activity along the NW Indian coast during the late Oligocene warming period (~ 27–24 Ma). Proxy data providing information about the atmospheric circulation dynamics over the Indian subcontinent at this time are important since it corresponds to a major climate reorga...

  12. Indian monsoon variability at different time scales: Marine and terrestrial proxy records

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Patnaik, R.; Gupta, A.K.; Naidu, P.D.; Yadav, R.R.; Bhattacharyya, A.; Kumar, M.

    , Akli Formation (early Eocene ligtes of Rajasthan), contain large number of fossil plants derived from tropical- subtropical rainforests (Prasad et al., 2009; Saxena and Trivedi, 2009; Tripathi et al. 2009; Trivedi, 2009). Besides a diverse...). The diversity and ecomorphological aspects of fossil murine rodents of Siwalik indicate that monsoon probably initiated in the Indian subcontinent around 14 Ma ago. The present day climatic zonations cannot be directly applied to the Late Miocene; because...

  13. A ˜25 ka Indian Ocean monsoon variability record from the Andaman Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rashid, H.; Flower, B. P.; Poore, R. Z.; Quinn, T. M.

    2007-10-01

    Recent paleoclimatic work on terrestrial and marine deposits from Asia and the Indian Ocean has indicated abrupt changes in the strength of the Asian monsoon during the last deglaciation. Comparison of marine paleoclimate records that track salinity changes from Asian rivers can help evaluate the coherence of the Indian Ocean monsoon (IOM) with the larger Asian monsoon. Here we present paired Mg/Ca and δ 18O data on the planktic foraminifer Globigerinoides ruber (white) from Andaman Sea core RC12-344 that provide records of sea-surface temperature (SST) and δ 18O of seawater (δ 18O sw) over the past 25,000 years (ka) before present (BP). Age control is based on nine accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) dates on mixed planktic foraminifera. Mg/Ca-SST data indicate that SST was ˜3 °C cooler during the last glacial maximum (LGM) than the late Holocene. Andaman Sea δ 18O sw exhibited higher than present values during the Lateglacial interval ca 19-15 ka BP and briefly during the Younger Dryas ca 12 ka BP. Lower than present δ 18O sw values during the BØlling/AllerØd ca 14.5-12.6 ka BP and during the early Holocene ca 10.8-5.5 ka BP are interpreted to indicate lower salinity, reflect some combination of decreased evaporation-precipitation (E-P) over the Andaman Sea and increased Irrawaddy River outflow. Our results are consistent with the suggestion that IOM intensity was stronger than present during the BØlling/AllerØd and early Holocene, and weaker during the late glaciation, Younger Dryas, and the late Holocene. These findings support the hypothesis that rapid climate change during the last deglaciation and Holocene included substantial hydrologic changes in the IOM system that were coherent with the larger Asian monsoon.

  14. Multi-Site and Multi-Variables Statistical Downscaling Technique in the Monsoon Dominated Region of Pakistan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, Firdos; Pilz, Jürgen

    2016-04-01

    South Asia is under the severe impacts of changing climate and global warming. The last two decades showed that climate change or global warming is happening and the first decade of 21st century is considered as the warmest decade over Pakistan ever in history where temperature reached 53 0C in 2010. Consequently, the spatio-temporal distribution and intensity of precipitation is badly effected and causes floods, cyclones and hurricanes in the region which further have impacts on agriculture, water, health etc. To cope with the situation, it is important to conduct impact assessment studies and take adaptation and mitigation remedies. For impact assessment studies, we need climate variables at higher resolution. Downscaling techniques are used to produce climate variables at higher resolution; these techniques are broadly divided into two types, statistical downscaling and dynamical downscaling. The target location of this study is the monsoon dominated region of Pakistan. One reason for choosing this area is because the contribution of monsoon rains in this area is more than 80 % of the total rainfall. This study evaluates a statistical downscaling technique which can be then used for downscaling climatic variables. Two statistical techniques i.e. quantile regression and copula modeling are combined in order to produce realistic results for climate variables in the area under-study. To reduce the dimension of input data and deal with multicollinearity problems, empirical orthogonal functions will be used. Advantages of this new method are: (1) it is more robust to outliers as compared to ordinary least squares estimates and other estimation methods based on central tendency and dispersion measures; (2) it preserves the dependence among variables and among sites and (3) it can be used to combine different types of distributions. This is important in our case because we are dealing with climatic variables having different distributions over different meteorological

  15. The Effect of Aerosol-Cloud-Vegetation Interactions and Intraseasonal Meteorological Variability on Warm Cloud Development during the Amazonian Biomass Burning Season

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ten Hoeve, J. E.; Remer, L. A.; Jacobson, M. Z.

    2009-12-01

    The effect of aerosols on the hydrological cycle remains one of the largest uncertainties in our climate system. Biomass burning, from both deforestation and annual agricultural burning, is the largest anthropogenic source of these aerosols in the Southern Hemisphere. Biomass burning aerosols have competing effects on clouds: Depending on the level of aerosol loading and the background cloud characteristics, biomass burning aerosols have been shown in observational studies to invigorate or inhibit cloud formation and/or growth through microphysical and absorptive pathways, respectively. Many of these previous studies have employed all days during the Amazonian burning season months of August through October to formulate aerosol-cloud correlations, assuming relatively constant meteorological conditions exist throughout these months. This study investigates how intraseasonal trends of precipitable water vapor and aerosol loading between August and October impact these aerosol-cloud correlations. Other factors affecting aerosol-cloud relationships, such as atmospheric stability, are also investigated. This study is focused on a small 3 degree NE x 4 degree WE region in Rondonia, Brazil that encompasses extensive, contiguous areas of both forested and deforested land. High resolution aerosol, cloud, water vapor, and atmospheric profile data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on the Terra and Aqua satellites, as well as aerosol and water vapor data from the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET), are used collectively to explore the effect of aerosols on water vapor loading and warm cloud development over the Amazon. The difference in aerosol effects on the local hydrological cycle over forested and deforested areas is also examined. This final exercise provides insight into the relationship between aerosols, land-atmosphere processes, and warm clouds.

  16. Variability of the date of monsoon onset over Kerala (India) of the period 1870-2014 and its relation to sea surface temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Preenu, P. N.; Joseph, P. V.; Dineshkumar, P. K.

    2017-07-01

    Monsoon onset over Kerala (India) which occurs every year is a major climatic phenomenon that involves large scale changes in wind, rainfall and sea surface temperature (SST). Over the last 150 years, the date of monsoon onset over Kerala (DMOK) has varied widely, the earliest being 11 May, 1918 and the most delayed being 18 June, 1972. DMOK has a long term (1870-2014) mean of 01 June and standard deviation of 7-8 days. We have studied the inter-annual and decadal time scale variability of DMOK and their relation with SST. We found that SST anomalies of large spatial scale similar to those in El Nino/La Nina are associated with the inter-annual variability in DMOK. Indian Ocean between latitudes 5°S and 20°N has two episodes of active convection associated with monsoon onset over Kerala (MOK), one around DMOK and the other about six weeks earlier (called pre-monsoon rain peak or bogus monsoon onset) and in between a two week period of suppressed convection occurs over north Indian Ocean. A prominent decadal time scale variability was found in DMOK having large and statistically significant linear correlation with the SST gradient across the equator over Indian and Pacific oceans, the large correlation persisting for several months prior to the MOK. However, no linear trend was seen in DMOK during the long period from 1870 to 2014.

  17. Variability of the date of monsoon onset over Kerala (India) of the period 1870–2014 and its relation to sea surface temperature

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    P N Preenu; P V Joseph; P K Dineshkumar

    2017-07-01

    Monsoon onset over Kerala (India) which occurs every year is a major climatic phenomenon that involves large scale changes in wind, rainfall and sea surface temperature (SST). Over the last 150 years, the date of monsoon onset over Kerala (DMOK) has varied widely, the earliest being 11 May, 1918 and the most delayed being 18 June, 1972. DMOK has a long term (1870–2014) mean of 01 June and standard deviation of 7–8 days. We have studied the inter-annual and decadal time scale variability of DMOK and their relation with SST. We found that SST anomalies of large spatial scale similar to those in El Nino/La Nina are associated with the inter-annual variability in DMOK. Indian Ocean between latitudes 5∘S and 20∘N has two episodes of active convection associated with monsoon onset over Kerala (MOK), one around DMOK and the other about six weeks earlier (called pre-monsoon rain peak or bogus monsoon onset) and in between a two week period of suppressed convection occurs over north Indian Ocean. A prominent decadal time scale variability was found in DMOK having large and statistically significant linear correlation with the SST gradient across the equator over Indian and Pacific oceans, the large correlation persisting for several months prior to the MOK. However, no linear trend was seen in DMOK during the long period from 1870 to 2014.

  18. Variability and Risk Analysis of Hong Kong Air Quality Based on Monsoon and El Ni(n)o Conditions

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Jong-Suk KIM; ZHOU Wen; Ho Nam CHEUNG; Chak Hang CHOW

    2013-01-01

    This study presents an exploratory analysis aimed at improving understanding of the variability of Hong Kong air quality associated with different climate conditions.Significantly negative correlations were found when Nifio 3 led particulate matter ≤10 μm PM10) and NO2 by 2-3 months over the Hong Kong territory,while the other pollutants (e.g.,O3,SO2) showed modest correlations.A significant decreasing trend in visibility was observed during the autumn and winter,which has potential implications for the air-quality degradation and the endangerment of human health in Hong Kong.In an El Ni(n)o summer,the visibility was relatively better,while visibility in other seasons was diminished.On the other hand,in La Ni(n)a events,significant changes occurred in visibility in winter and autumn.Air pollution indices were less sensitive to the South China Summer Monsoon (SCSM),but a relatively high correlation existed between the East Asian Winter Monsoon (EAWM) and air pollutants.Rainfall was lower during most of the strong EAWM years compared to the weak years.This result suggests that the pollutants that accumulate in Hong Kong are not easy to wash out,so concentrations remain at a higher level.Finally,based on the conditional Air Pollution Index (API) risk assessment,site-specific vulnerabilities were analyzed to facilitate the development of the air-quality warning systems in Hong Kong.

  19. Subseasonal to multidecadal variability of northeast monsoon daily rainfall over Peninsular Malaysia using a hidden Markov model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Wei Lun; Yusof, Fadhilah; Yusop, Zulkifli

    2017-07-01

    This study involves the modelling of a homogeneous hidden Markov model (HMM) on the northeast rainfall monsoon using 40 rainfall stations in Peninsular Malaysia for the period of 1975 to 2008. A six hidden states HMM was selected based on Bayesian information criterion (BIC), and every hidden state has distinct rainfall characteristics. Three of the states were found to correspond by wet conditions; while the remaining three states were found to correspond to dry conditions. The six hidden states were found to correspond with the associated atmospheric composites. The relationships between El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the sea surface temperatures (SST) in the Pacific Ocean are found regarding interannual variability. The wet (dry) states were found to be well correlated with a Niño 3.4 index which was used to characterize the intensity of an ENSO event. This model is able to assess the behaviour of the rainfall characteristics with the large scale atmospheric circulation; the monsoon rainfall is well correlated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation in Peninsular Malaysia.

  20. Stratospheric variability of wave activity and parameters in equatorial coastal and tropical sites during the West African monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kafando, P.; Chane-Ming, F.; Petitdidier, M.

    2016-12-01

    Recent numerical studies in stratospheric dynamics and its variability as well as climate, have highlighted the need of more observational analyses to improve simulation of the West African monsoon (WAM). In this paper, activity and spectral characteristics of short-scale vertical waves (wavelengths tropical lower stratosphere during the WAM. A first detailed description of such waves over West Africa is derived from high-resolution vertical profiles of temperature and horizontal wind obtained during Intensive Observation Period of the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analyses (AMMA) Campaign 2006. Monthly variation of wave energy density is revealed to trace the progression of the inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) over West Africa. Mesoscale inertia gravity-waves structures with vertical and horizontal wavelengths of 1.5-2.5 and 400-1100 km respectively and intrinsic frequencies of 1.1-2.2 f or periods tropical LS with intense activity during July and August when the WAM is installed over the tropical West Africa. Over equatorial region, gravity waves with intrinsic frequencies of 1.4-4 f or periods tropical stations.

  1. Subseasonal to multidecadal variability of northeast monsoon daily rainfall over Peninsular Malaysia using a hidden Markov model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Wei Lun; Yusof, Fadhilah; Yusop, Zulkifli

    2016-04-01

    This study involves the modelling of a homogeneous hidden Markov model (HMM) on the northeast rainfall monsoon using 40 rainfall stations in Peninsular Malaysia for the period of 1975 to 2008. A six hidden states HMM was selected based on Bayesian information criterion (BIC), and every hidden state has distinct rainfall characteristics. Three of the states were found to correspond by wet conditions; while the remaining three states were found to correspond to dry conditions. The six hidden states were found to correspond with the associated atmospheric composites. The relationships between El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the sea surface temperatures (SST) in the Pacific Ocean are found regarding interannual variability. The wet (dry) states were found to be well correlated with a Niño 3.4 index which was used to characterize the intensity of an ENSO event. This model is able to assess the behaviour of the rainfall characteristics with the large scale atmospheric circulation; the monsoon rainfall is well correlated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation in Peninsular Malaysia.

  2. Monsoonal variability in abiotic parameters in coastal waters off Trivandrum evokes press and pulse response in biotic variables

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Subina, N.S.; Bhosle, S.; Nair, S.; Lokabharathi, P.A.

    . The lesser supply of nutrients in post monsoon is attributed to the relaxation in wind field which reduces the Ekman pumping of deep water to surface of coastal waters (Habeebrehman et. al., 2008). Though 99.1 % variation was due to nitrate, nitrite.... 2000. Seasonal controls on surface pCO in the central and eastern Arabian Sea. 2 Proceedings of the Indian Academy of Science. 109. pp. 471-479. Smith, S. L. 1984. Biological indications of active upwelling in the northwestern Indian Ocean in 1964...

  3. The East Asian subtropical summer monsoon: Recent progress

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Jinhai; Liu, Boqi

    2016-04-01

    The East Asian subtropical summer monsoon (EASSM) is one component of the East Asian summer monsoon system, and its evolution determines the weather and climate over East China. In the present paper, we firstly demonstrate the formation and advancement of the EASSM rainbelt and its associated circulation and precipitation patterns through reviewing recent studies and our own analysis based on JRA-55 (Japanese 55-yr Reanalysis) data and CMAP (CPC Merged Analysis of Precipitation), GPCP (Global Precipitation Climatology Project), and TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) precipitation data. The results show that the rainy season of the EASSM starts over the region to the south of the Yangtze River in early April, with the establishment of strong southerly wind in situ. The EASSM rainfall, which is composed of dominant convective and minor stratiform precipitation, is always accompanied by a frontal system and separated from the tropical summer monsoon system. It moves northward following the onset of the South China Sea summer monsoon. Moreover, the role of the land-sea thermal contrast in the formation and maintenance of the EASSM is illustrated, including in particular the effect of the seasonal transition of the zonal land-sea thermal contrast and the influences from the Tibetan Plateau and midlatitudes. In addition, we reveal a possible reason for the subtropical climate difference between East Asia and East America. Finally, the multi-scale variability of the EASSM and its influential factors are summarized to uncover possible reasons for the intraseasonal, interannual, and interdecadal variability of the EASSM and their importance in climate prediction.

  4. Variability of Moisture Sources and Moisture Transport in the East Asian Monsoon System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fremme, Astrid; Sodemann, Harald

    2016-04-01

    The rainfall of the East Asian Monsoon is of key importance for livelihoods in the densely populated area of China, Japan and Korea. The interplay of many factors, including land surface processes, makes monsoon precipitation difficult to predict. To contribute to improved precipitation prediction we investigate the atmospheric mechanisms importing moisture to the region. In previous studies moisture transport has mainly been analysed by examining a combination of temperature, pressure, winds and water vapour content. However this has been done without linking precipitation to its moisture sources directly. In this project we use the Lagrangian particle dispersion model FLEXPART and the diagnostic tool WaterSip to analyse ERA Interim reanalysis data to obtain a link between precipitation and its moisture sources. The total atmospheric mass is subdivided into millions air parcels, which are traced backwards for 20 days for each rainfall event in the 34 year ERA-Interim period. Specific humidity changes are interpreted as evaporation and precipitation in the area beneath the parcel with the help of a sophisticated accounting method related to target precipitation. Results on the relationship between source and sink areas reflect changes in the conditions of the source regions and in moisture transport. We investigate the moisture transport mechanisms for both seasonal and inter-annual variations during the study period 1979-2013. Preliminary results show that the sources for precipitation in the Yangtze River Valley (YRV) in China have a clear seasonal cycle in terms of location and evaporation conditions. Land areas outside the YRV Region contribute most of the moisture. The second largest source is inside the YRV region itself. For monthly means the sum of all direct oceanic sources rarely exceeds 20%. Recycling of moisture from land surfaces outside the target regions therefore seems to play a pivotal role in the East Asian Monsoon's moisture budget. Contrasting

  5. West African monsoon decadal variability and surface-related forcings: second West African Monsoon Modeling and Evaluation Project Experiment (WAMME II)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xue, Yongkang; De Sales, Fernando; Lau, William K.-M.; Boone, Aaron; Kim, Kyu-Myong; Mechoso, Carlos R.; Wang, Guiling; Kucharski, Fred; Schiro, Kathleen; Hosaka, Masahiro; Li, Suosuo; Druyan, Leonard M.; Sanda, Ibrah Seidou; Thiaw, Wassila; Zeng, Ning; Comer, Ruth E.; Lim, Young-Kwon; Mahanama, Sarith; Song, Guoqiong; Gu, Yu; Hagos, Samson M.; Chin, Mian; Schubert, Siegfried; Dirmeyer, Paul; Ruby Leung, L.; Kalnay, Eugenia; Kitoh, Akio; Lu, Cheng-Hsuan; Mahowald, Natalie M.; Zhang, Zhengqiu

    2016-12-01

    The second West African Monsoon Modeling and Evaluation Project Experiment (WAMME II) is designed to improve understanding of the possible roles and feedbacks of sea surface temperature (SST), land use land cover change (LULCC), and aerosols forcings in the Sahel climate system at seasonal to decadal scales. The project's strategy is to apply prescribed observationally based anomaly forcing, i.e., "idealized but realistic" forcing, in simulations by climate models. The goal is to assess these forcings' effects in producing/amplifying seasonal and decadal climate variability in the Sahel between the 1950s and the 1980s, which is selected to characterize the great drought period of the last century. This is the first multi-model experiment specifically designed to simultaneously evaluate such relative contributions. The WAMME II models have consistently demonstrated that SST forcing is a major contributor to the twentieth century Sahel drought. Under the influence of the maximum possible SST forcing, the ensemble mean of WAMME II models can produce up to 60 % of the precipitation difference during the period. The present paper also addresses the role of SSTs in triggering and maintaining the Sahel drought. In this regard, the consensus of WAMME II models is that both Indian and Pacific Ocean SSTs greatly contributed to the drought, with the former producing an anomalous displacement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone before the WAM onset, and the latter mainly contributes to the summer WAM drought. The WAMME II models also show that the impact of LULCC forcing on the Sahel climate system is weaker than that of SST forcing, but still of first order magnitude. According to the results, under LULCC forcing the ensemble mean of WAMME II models can produces about 40 % of the precipitation difference between the 1980s and the 1950s. The role of land surface processes in responding to and amplifying the drought is also identified. The results suggest that catastrophic

  6. Variability of stalagmite-inferred Indian monsoon precipitation over the past 252,000 y.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, Yanjun; Fung, Inez Y; Edwards, R Lawrence; An, Zhisheng; Cheng, Hai; Lee, Jung-Eun; Tan, Liangcheng; Shen, Chuan-Chou; Wang, Xianfeng; Day, Jesse A; Zhou, Weijian; Kelly, Megan J; Chiang, John C H

    2015-03-10

    A speleothem δ(18)O record from Xiaobailong cave in southwest China characterizes changes in summer monsoon precipitation in Northeastern India, the Himalayan foothills, Bangladesh, and northern Indochina over the last 252 kyr. This record is dominated by 23-kyr precessional cycles punctuated by prominent millennial-scale oscillations that are synchronous with Heinrich events in the North Atlantic. It also shows clear glacial-interglacial variations that are consistent with marine and other terrestrial proxies but are different from the cave records in East China. Corroborated by isotope-enabled global circulation modeling, we hypothesize that this disparity reflects differing changes in atmospheric circulation and moisture trajectories associated with climate forcing as well as with associated topographic changes during glacial periods, in particular redistribution of air mass above the growing ice sheets and the exposure of the "land bridge" in the Maritime continents in the western equatorial Pacific.

  7. A distal 140 kyr sediment record of Nile discharge and East African monsoon variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ehrmann, Werner; Schmiedl, Gerhard; Seidel, Martin; Krüger, Stefan; Schulz, Hartmut

    2016-03-01

    Clay mineral assemblages in a sediment core from the distal Nile discharge plume off Israel have been used to reconstruct the late Quaternary Nile sediment discharge into the eastern Mediterranean Sea (EMS). The record spans the last ca. 140 kyr. Smectite abundances indicate the influence of the Blue Nile and the Atbara River that have their headwaters in the volcanic rocks of the Ethiopian Highlands. Kaolinite abundances indicate the influence of wadis, which contribute periodically to the suspension load of the Nile. Due to the geographical position, the climate and the sedimentary framework of the EMS is controlled by two climate systems. The long-term climate regime was governed by the African monsoon that caused major African humid periods (AHPs) with enhanced sediment discharge at 132 to AHP 5), 116 to 99 (AHP4), and 89 to 77 ka (AHP3). They lasted much longer than the formation of the related sapropel layers S5 (> 2 kyr), S4 (3.5 kyr), and S3 (5 kyr). During the last glacial period (Marine Isotope Stages (MISs) 4-2), the long-term changes in the monsoonal system were superimposed by millennial-scale changes in an intensified midlatitude glacial system. This climate regime caused short but pronounced drought periods in the Nile catchment, which are linked to Heinrich events and alternate with more humid interstadials. The clay mineral record further implies that feedback mechanisms between vegetation cover and sediment discharge of the Nile are detectable but of minor importance for the sedimentary record in the southeastern Mediterranean Sea during the investigated African humid periods.

  8. Interdecadal variation of the West African summer monsoon during 1979-2010 and associated variability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Li, Huanlian [Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Beijing (China); Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing (China); Chinese Academy of Sciences, Climate Change Research Center, Beijing (China); Wang, Huijun [Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Beijing (China); Chinese Academy of Sciences, Climate Change Research Center, Beijing (China); Yin, Yizhou [Tsinghua University, Center for Earth System Science, Beijing (China)

    2012-12-15

    This paper addresses the interdecadal variation of the West African summer monsoon (WASM) along with its background of atmospheric circulation and possible physical mechanism over the past 32 years (1979-2010). It is indicated that the WASM starts to strengthen from 1998 as the rainfall begins to increase over western West Africa on the whole, which shows a new interdecadal variation. In this interdecadal variation, the strengthened ascending motion corresponding to enhanced divergence (convergence) movement on the upper (lower) troposphere is prone to develop the local circulation of the monsoon. Moreover, the strengthened southwestern (eastern) wind on the lower (upper) level leads to more moisture from the Atlantic and the Gulf of Guinea transported to the West African continent. In addition, the summer subtropical high over the north Atlantic and western West Africa is strong and northward, and the tropical east wind is also strong. Statistically, the weaker (stronger) the spring North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is, the stronger (weaker) the tropical easterly is, and then the WASM is also stronger. But the effect of the NAO on the decadal variation of the WASM is not so significant from the north Atlantic anomaly sensitivity simulation with a single model. This is also an indication that the relationship between the WASM and NAO is complicated in an interdecadal time scale and is needed further study. In terms of sea surface temperature (SST) variation, the tendency is toward warming in the subtropical north Pacific, the south Pacific and north Atlantic. Numerical simulation experiments and data analysis show that the SST variation in the north Pacific plays an important role in the latest interdecadal strengthening of the WASM during the past 32 years, while the influences of the south Pacific and the north Atlantic SST anomalies are not so significant to the associated atmospheric circulation changes. (orig.)

  9. A study on the role of land-atmosphere coupling on the south Asian monsoon climate variability using a regional climate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Unnikrishnan, C. K.; Rajeevan, M.; Vijaya Bhaskara Rao, S.

    2017-02-01

    Land-atmosphere coupling over the south Asian monsoon region is examined using a regional climate model. For this purpose, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with a resolution of 45 km was used. In the control experiment (CTL), the model was integrated from the year 2000 to 2011 and allowed the soil moisture interaction with the atmosphere using a coupled land surface model. In the second experiment (CSM), the soil moisture evolution at each time step was replaced with the climatology of soil moisture taken from the control run. The results reveal that land-atmosphere coupling plays a critical role in influencing the south Asian monsoon climate variability. Soil moisture is found to have stronger impacts on daily maximum temperature compared to minimum temperature. Soil moisture also makes a significant contribution to monsoon rainfall variability over the monsoon region. The coupling strength for large-scale rainfall is found to be higher compared to that of cumulus rainfall. Soil moisture is found more strongly coupled to sensible heat flux over most of the monsoon region.

  10. A regional ocean-atmosphere coupled model developed for CORDEX East Asia: assessment of Asian summer monsoon simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zou, Liwei; Zhou, Tianjun

    2016-12-01

    In this study, a developed regional ocean-atmosphere coupled model FROALS was applied to the CORDEX East Asia domain. The performance of FROALS in the simulation of Asian summer monsoon during 1989-2010 was assessed using the metrics developed by the CLIVAR Asian-Australian Monsoon Panel Diagnostics Task Team. The results indicated that FROALS exhibited good performance in simulating Asian summer monsoon climatology. The simulated JJA mean SST biases were weaker than those of the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble mean (MMEM). The skill of FROALS approached that of CMIP5 MMEM in terms of the annual cycle of Asian summer monsoon. The simulated monsoon duration matched the observed counterpart well (with a spatial pattern correlation coefficient of 0.59). Some biases of CMIP5 MMEM were also found in FROALS, highlighting the importance of local forcing and model physics within the Asian monsoon domain. Corresponding to a strong East Asian summer monsoon, an anomalous anticyclone was found over western North Pacific in both observation and simulation. However, the simulated strength was weaker than the observed due to the responses to incorrect sea surface anomalies over the key regions. The model also accurately captured the spatial pattern of the intraseasonal variability variance and the extreme climate indices of Asian summer monsoons, although with larger amplitude. The results suggest that FROALS could be used as a dynamical downscaling tool nested within the global climate model with coarse resolution to develop high-resolution regional climate change projections over the CORDEX East Asia domain.

  11. Indian summer monsoon rainfall variability during 2014 and 2015 and associated Indo-Pacific upper ocean temperature patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kakatkar, Rashmi; Gnanaseelan, C.; Chowdary, J. S.; Parekh, Anant; Deepa, J. S.

    2017-01-01

    In this study, factors responsible for the deficit Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) rainfall in 2014 and 2015 and the ability of Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology-Global Ocean Data Assimilation System (IITM-GODAS) in representing the oceanic features are examined. IITM-GODAS has been used to provide initial conditions for seasonal forecast in India during 2014 and 2015. The years 2014 and 2015 witnessed deficit ISM rainfall but were evolved from two entirely different preconditions over Pacific. This raises concern over the present understanding of the role of Pacific Ocean on ISM variability. Analysis reveals that the mechanisms associated with the rainfall deficit over the Indian Subcontinent are different in the two years. It is found that remote forcing in summer of 2015 due to El Niño is mostly responsible for the deficit monsoon rainfall through changes in Walker circulation and large-scale subsidence. In the case of the summer of 2014, both local circulation with anomalous anticyclone over central India and intrusion of mid-latitude dry winds from north have contributed for the deficit rainfall. In addition to the above, Tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) sea surface temperature (SST) and remote forcing from Pacific Ocean also modulated the ISM rainfall. It is observed that Pacific SST warming has extended westward in 2014, making it a basin scale warming unlike the strong El Niño year 2015. The eastern equatorial Indian Ocean is anomalously warmer than west in summer of 2014, and vice versa in 2015. These differences in SST in both tropical Pacific and TIO have considerable impact on ISM rainfall in 2014 and 2015. The study reveals that initializing coupled forecast models with proper upper ocean temperature over the Indo-Pacific is therefore essential for improved model forecast. It is important to note that the IITM-GODAS which assimilates only array for real-time geostrophic oceanography (ARGO) temperature and salinity profiles could capture most of the

  12. Interannual variability of remotely sensed chlorophyll a during an autumn monsoon transitional period in the Taiwan Strait

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHANG Caiyun; HONG Huasheng

    2014-01-01

    The time series of multiple sources of satellite data are used to examine the interannual variability of chlo-rophyll a concentration (Chl a) and its relation to the physical environment during the autumn monsoon transitional period in the Taiwan Strait (TWS). The satellite data included the Chl a concentration and sea surface temperature (SST) derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)/Aqua as well as the multi-sensors merged wind products from 2002 to 2012. The results show that the aver-age Chl a concentration of the whole TWS is mainly contributed by the northern TWS. The average Chl a in the northern TWS is 3.6 times that in the southern TWS. The maximum variability of Chl a is located in the frontal regions between the cold Zhe-Min Coastal Water and the strait warm water. The temporal change of Chl a concentration is different in the northern and southern TWS. The changes in the relative strength of the cold and warm water masses is suggested to be the dominant processes in controlling the phytoplankton growth in the northern TWS, while there is wind-induced mixing in the southern TWS. Additionally, La Niña events exhibited complex effects on the interannual variability of Chl a concentration in autumn. The long-term time series of physical and biological observations are especially needed to better understand how the TWS complex ecosystem responds to climate variations.

  13. 350 ka organic 13C record of the monsoon variability on the Oman continental margin, ArabianSea

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Alfred N N Muzuka

    2000-12-01

    The stable isotope compositions of sedimentary organic carbon and content of organic carbon for sediment cores recovered at two sites (sites 724C and 725C) during Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Leg. 117 on the Oman continental margin are used to document variability of the monsoon winds for the past 350 ka. Although both sites have a mean 13C value of -20.1%, three zones depleted in 13C are observable at site 724C during isotope stages 3, 8 and 10, while only one zone is recognizable at site 725C. Increased coastal upwelling during isotope stage 3 owing to intense SW monsoon winds resulted in higher concentration of CO2 in the water column causing the formation of organic matter that was depleted in 13C. The other two zones deposited during oxygen isotope stages 8 and 10, which are also characterized by low values of organic carbon, nitrogen and C/N ratios, could be attributed to the dilution by terrestrial material derived from paleosol by transported by northwesterlies. Because of utilization of 13C enriched dissolved CO2 during the last glacial maximum Holocene sedimentary organic materials are depleted in 13C relative to the the fomer. The content of residues organic carbon (ROC) is higher at site 724C (with an average of 2.3 ± 1.2%) relative to site 725C, which averages to 0.9 ± 0.4% probably because of differences in the degree of preservation. Organic material deposited at site 725C has undergone more degradation relative to site 724C as reflected by a systematic downcore decrease in 13C resulting from a loss of 13C enriched organic compounds. Owing to lack of good chronology at site 725C, a zone that is characterized by low 13C values it could not be correlated with the other three zones observed at Site 724C.

  14. Enhanced climate variability in the tropics: a 200 000 yr annual record of monsoon variability from Pangea's equator

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Y. Anderson

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available A continuous series of 209 000 evaporite varves from the equator of arid western Pangea (age = −255 ma, as a proxy for surface temperature, has a complete suite of Milankovitch cycles and harmonics as expected for a rectified reaction to precession-modulated insolation at the equator. Included are modes of precession (23.4 kyr, 18.2 kyr, semi-precession (11.7 kyr, 9.4 kyr, and harmonics at ~7 kyr and 5.4 kyr. An oscillation of ~100 kyr, with 35 % of total variance, originates as an amplitude modulation of precession cycles. An exceptionally strong 2.3 kyr quasi-bi-millennial oscillation (QBMO appears to have had its own source of forcing, possibly solar, with its amplitude enhanced at Milankovitch frequencies. Seasonal information in varves traces the rectifying process to asymmetrical distribution of Pangea relative to the equator, and its effect on monsoonal circulation and heat flow near the equator during summer solstices in the hemispheres.

  15. South Asian climate change at the end of urban Harappan (Indus valley) civilization and mechanisms of Holocene monsoon variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Staubwasser, M.; Sirocko, F.; Erlenkeuser, H.; Grootes, P. M.; Segl, M.

    2003-04-01

    Planktonic oxygen isotope ratios from the well-dated laminated sediment core 63KA off the river Indus delta are presented. The record reveals significant climate changes in the south Asian monsoon system throughout the Holocene. The most prominent event of the early-mid Holocene occurred after 8.4 ka BP and is within dating error of the GISP/GRIP event centered at 8.2 ka BP. The late Holocene is generally more variable and the largest change of the entire Holocene occurred at 4.2 ka BP. This event is concordant with the end of urban Harappan civilization in the Indus valley. Opposing isotopic trends across the northern Arabian Sea surface indicate a reduction in Indus river discharge at that time. Consequently, sustained drought may have initiated the archaeologically recorded interval of southeastward habitat tracking within the Harappan cultural domain. The hemispheric significance of the 4.2 ka BP event is evident from concordant climate change in the eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East. The remainder of the late Holocene shows drought cycles of approximately 700 years that are coherent with the evolution of cosmogenic radiocarbon production rates in the atmosphere. This suggests that solar variability is one fundamental cause behind late Holocene rainfall changes over south Asia.

  16. Composition of the Asian summer monsoon anticyclone: Climatology and variability from 10 years of Aura Microwave Limb Sounder measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santee, Michelle; Manney, Gloria; Livesey, Nathaniel; Neu, Jessica; Schwartz, Michael; Read, William

    2016-04-01

    Satellite measurements are invaluable for investigating the composition of the upper troposphere / lower stratosphere (UTLS) in the region of the Asian summer monsoon anticyclone, which has been sparsely sampled by other means. The Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS), launched as part of NASA's Aura mission in July 2004, makes simultaneous co-located measurements of trace gases and cloud ice water content (IWC, a proxy for deep convection) in the UTLS on a daily basis. Here we exploit the dense spatial and temporal coverage, long-term data record, and extensive measurement suite of Aura MLS to characterize the climatological composition of the ASM anticyclone and quantify its considerable spatial, seasonal, and interannual variability. We relate the observed trace gas behavior to various meteorological quantities, such as the size and strength of the ASM anticyclone, the extent and intensity of deep convection, and variations in the tropopause and the upper tropospheric jets in that region. Multiple species of both tropospheric and stratospheric origin are examined to help assess whether the observed variability arises from variations in transport processes or changes in the strength or location of surface emissions.

  17. Biogeochemical variability in the equatorial Indian Ocean during the monsoon transition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strutton, P. G.; Coles, V. J.; Hood, R. R.; Matear, R. J.; McPhaden, M. J.; Phillips, H. E.

    2014-04-01

    In this paper we examine time-series measurements of near-surface chlorophyll concentration from a mooring that was deployed at 80.5° E on the equator in the Indian Ocean in 2010. These data reveal at least six striking spikes in chlorophyll in October through December, with approximately 2 week periodicity, that coincide with the development of the fall Wyrtki jets during the transition between the summer and winter monsoons. Concurrent meteorological and in situ physical measurements from the mooring reveal that the chlorophyll pulses are associated with intensification of eastward winds at the surface and eastward currents in the mixed layer. These observations are inconsistent with upwelling dynamics as occurs in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, since eastward winds that force Wyrtki jet intensification should drive downwelling. The chlorophyll spikes could be explained by two alternative mechanisms: (1) turbulent entrainment of nutrients and/or chlorophyll from across the base of the mixed layer by wind stirring or Wyrtki jet-induced shear instability; or (2) enhanced horizontal advection of high chlorophyll concentrations into the convergent equatorial zone. The first mechanism is supported by the phasing and amplitude of the relationship between wind stress and chlorophyll, which suggests that the chlorophyll spikes are the result of turbulent entrainment driven by synoptic zonal wind events. The second mechanism is supported by satellite chlorophyll observations that reveal a clear connection between the increased chlorophyll concentrations at the mooring location and larger-scale topographic wake effects from the Chagos-Lacadive Ridge upstream. The biweekly periodicity of the chlorophyll spikes appears to be related to the presence of mixed Rossby-gravity waves, also known as Yanai waves, which can be seen throughout the time-series as a biweekly periodicity in the meridional velocities with upward phase propagation. Consistent with hypothesis 2, eastward

  18. Biogeochemical variability in the equatorial Indian Ocean during the monsoon transition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. G. Strutton

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we examine time-series measurements of near-surface chlorophyll concentration from a mooring that was deployed at 80.5° E on the equator in the Indian Ocean in 2010. These data reveal at least six striking spikes in chlorophyll in October through December, with approximately 2 week periodicity, that coincide with the development of the fall Wyrtki jets during the transition between the summer and winter monsoons. Concurrent meteorological and in situ physical measurements from the mooring reveal that the chlorophyll pulses are associated with intensification of eastward winds at the surface and eastward currents in the mixed layer. These observations are inconsistent with upwelling dynamics as occurs in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, since eastward winds that force Wyrtki jet intensification should drive downwelling. The chlorophyll spikes could be explained by two alternative mechanisms: (1 turbulent entrainment of nutrients and/or chlorophyll from across the base of the mixed layer by wind stirring or Wyrtki jet-induced shear instability; or (2 enhanced horizontal advection of high chlorophyll concentrations into the convergent equatorial zone. The first mechanism is supported by the phasing and amplitude of the relationship between wind stress and chlorophyll, which suggests that the chlorophyll spikes are the result of turbulent entrainment driven by synoptic zonal wind events. The second mechanism is supported by satellite chlorophyll observations that reveal a clear connection between the increased chlorophyll concentrations at the mooring location and larger-scale topographic wake effects from the Chagos–Lacadive Ridge upstream. The biweekly periodicity of the chlorophyll spikes appears to be related to the presence of mixed Rossby-gravity waves, also known as Yanai waves, which can be seen throughout the time-series as a biweekly periodicity in the meridional velocities with upward phase propagation. Consistent with

  19. Monsoon induced seasonal variability of sheltered versus exposed beaches along the west coast of India

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Shenoi, S.S.C.; Murty, C.S.; Veerayya, M.

    forcings, respond through variable changes depending on their individual geographical/geomorphological setting. The analysis suggests that, for the period of study, the beaches are stable as revealed by the temporal dependence of the first eigenfunction...

  20. Paleoclimate and Asian monsoon variability inferred from n-alkanes and their stable isotopes at lake Donggi Cona, NE Tibetan Plateau

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saini, Jeetendra; Guenther, Franziska; Mäusbacher, Roland; Gleixner, Gerd

    2015-04-01

    The Tibetan Plateau is one of the most extensive and sensitive region of elevated topography affecting global climate. The interplay between the Asian summer monsoon and the westerlies greatly influences the lake systems at the Tibetan Plateau. Despite a considerable number of research efforts in last decade, possible environmental reactions to change in monsoon dynamics are still not well understood. Here we present results from a sediment core of lake Donggi Cona, which dates back to late glacial period. Distinct organic geochemical proxies and stable isotopes are used to study the paleoenvironmental and hydrological changes in late glacial and Holocene period. Sedimentary n-alkanes of lake Donggi Cona are used as a proxy for paleoclimatic and monsoonal reconstruction. The hydrogen (δD) and carbon (δ13C) isotopes of n-alkanes are used as proxy for hydrological and phytoplankton productivity, respectively . Qualitative and quantitative analysis were performed for n-alkanes over the sediment core. δD proxy for sedimentary n-alkanes is used to infer lake water and rainfall signal. δD of (n-alkane C23) records the signal of the lake water, whereas δD of (n-alkane C29) record the precipitation signal, hence act as an appropriate proxy to track Asian monsoon. Long chain n-alkanes dominate over the sediment core while unsaturated mid chain n-alkenes have high abundance in some samples. From 18.4-13.8 cal ka BP, sample shows low organic productivity due to cold and arid climate. After 13.8-11.8 cal ka BP, slight increase in phytoplankton productivity indicate onset of weaker monsoon. From 11.8-6.8 cal ka BP, high content of organic matter indicates rise in productivity and strong monsoon with high inflow. After 6.8 cal ka BP, decrease in phytoplankton productivity indicating cooler climate and show terrestrial signal. Our results provide new insight into the variability of east Asian monsoon and changes in phytoplankton productivity for last 18.4 ka. Keywords: n

  1. Inter ENSO variability and its influence over the South American monsoon system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. R. M. Drumond

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Previous studies have discussed the interannual variability of a meridional seesaw of dry and wet conditions over South America (SA associated to the modulation of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ. However, they did not explore if the variability inter ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation can be related to the phase changes of this dipole. To answer this question, an observational work was carried out to explore the atmospheric and Sea Surface Temperature (SST conditions related to the same ENSO signal and to opposite dipole phases. Rotated Empirical Orthogonal Function (REOF analysis was applied over normalized Chen precipitation seasonal anomalies in order to find the dipole mode in the Austral Summer (December to February. The fourth rotated mode, explaining 6.6% of the total variance, consists of positive loading over the SACZ region and negative loading over northern Argentina. Extreme events were selected and enhanced activity of SACZ during the Summer season (SACZ+ was identified in nine years: five during La Niña events (LN and two in El Niño episodes (EN. On the other hand, inhibited manifestations of this system (SACZ- were identified in seven years: four in EN and two during LN. Power spectrum analysis indicated that the interannual variability of the precipitation dipole seems to be related to the low frequency and to the quasi-biennial part of ENSO variability. The ENSO events with the same signal can present opposite phases for the dipole. The results suggest that the displacement of the convection over Indonesia and western Pacific can play an important role to modulate the seesaw pattern.

  2. Stratospheric Response to Intraseasonal Changes in Incoming Solar Radiation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garfinkel, Chaim; silverman, vered; harnik, nili; Erlich, caryn

    2016-04-01

    Superposed epoch analysis of meteorological reanalysis data is used to demonstrate a significant connection between intraseasonal solar variability and temperatures in the stratosphere. Decreasing solar flux leads to a cooling of the tropical upper stratosphere above 7hPa, while increasing solar flux leads to a warming of the tropical upper stratosphere above 7hPa, after a lag of approximately six to ten days. Late winter (February-March) Arctic stratospheric temperatures also change in response to changing incoming solar flux in a manner consistent with that seen on the 11 year timescale: ten to thirty days after the start of decreasing solar flux, the polar cap warms during the easterly phase of the Quasi-Biennal Oscillation. In contrast, cooling is present after decreasing solar flux during the westerly phase of the Quasi-Biennal Oscillation (though it is less robust than the warming during the easterly phase). The estimated composite mean changes in Northern Hemisphere upper stratospheric (~ 5hPa) polar temperatures exceed 8K, and are potentially a source of intraseasonal predictability for the surface. These changes in polar temperature are consistent with the changes in wave driving entering the stratosphere. Garfinkel, C.I., V. Silverman, N. Harnik, C. Erlich, Y. Riz (2015), Stratospheric Response to Intraseasonal Changes in Incoming Solar Radiation, J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 120, 7648-7660. doi: 10.1002/2015JD023244.

  3. AMS 14 C dating controlled records of monsoon and Indonesian throughflow variability from the eastern Indian Ocean of the past 32,000 years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Z. Y.; Chen, M. T.; Shi, X.; Liu, S.; Wang, H.

    2015-12-01

    Zi-Ye Li a, Min-Te Chen b, Hou-Jie Wang a, Sheng-Fa Liu c, Xue-Fa Shi ca College of Marine Geosciences, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, P.R. Chinab Institute of Applied Geosciences, National Taiwan Ocean University, Keelung, Taiwan 20224, ROCc First Institute of Oceanography, SOA, Qingdao 266100, P.R. China Indonesian throughflow (ITF) is one of the most important currents responsible for transporting heat and moisture from the western Pacific to the Indian Oceans. The ITF is also well-known as effectively in modulating the global climate change with the interactions among ENSO and Asian monsoons. Here we present an AMS 14C dating controlled sea surface temperature (SST) record from core SO184-10043 (07°18.57'S, 105°03.53'E), which was retrieved from 2171m water depth at a north-south depression located at the southeastern offshore area of Sumatera in the eastern Indian Ocean. Based on our high-resolution SST using Mg/Ca analyses based on planktonic foraminifera shells of Globigerinoides ruber and alkenone index, U k'37-SST, oxygen isotope stratigraphy, and AMC 14C age-controls, our records show that, during the past 32,000 years, the SSTs were decreased which imply weaker ITF during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 2 and 3. The weaker UTF may respond to strengthened northeast monsoon during the boreal winter. During 21 to 15ka, the southeast monsoon had been stronger and the northeast monsoon was relatively weaker. During 15 to 8ka, rapid sea level rising may allow the opening of the gateways in the Makassar Strait and Lombok Strait that may have further strengthened the ITF. During the early Holocene, the northeast and southeast monsoons seem to be both strengthened. We will discuss the implications of the hydrographic variability and their age uncertainties in this paper during the meeting.

  4. The transfer of seasonal isotopic variability between precipitation and drip water at eight caves in the monsoon regions of China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duan, Wuhui; Ruan, Jiaoyang; Luo, Weijun; Li, Tingyong; Tian, Lijun; Zeng, Guangneng; Zhang, Dezhong; Bai, Yijun; Li, Jilong; Tao, Tao; Zhang, Pingzhong; Baker, Andy; Tan, Ming

    2016-06-01

    This study presents new stable isotope data for precipitation (δ18Op) and drip water (δ18Od) from eight cave sites in the monsoon regions of China (MRC), with monthly to bi-monthly sampling intervals from May-2011 to April-2014, to investigate the regional-scale climate forcing on δ18Op and how the isotopic signals are transmitted to various drip sites. The monthly δ18Op values show negative correlation with surface air temperature at all the cave sites except Shihua Cave, which is opposite to that expected from the temperature effect. In addition, although the monthly δ18Op values are negatively correlated with precipitation at all the cave sites, only three sites are significant at the 95% level. These indicate that, due to the various vapor sources, a large portion of variability in δ18Op in the MRC cannot be explained simply by either temperature or precipitation alone. All the thirty-four drip sites are classified into three types based on the δ18Od variability. About 82% of them are static drips with little discernable variation in δ18Od through the whole study period, but the drip rates of these drips are not necessary constant. Their discharge modes are site-specific and the oxygen isotopic composition of the stalagmites growing from them may record the average of multi-year climatic signals, which are modulated by the seasonality of recharge and potential effects of evaporation, and in some cases infiltration from large rainfall events. About 12% of the thirty-four drip sites are seasonal drips, although the amplitude of δ18Od is narrower than that of δ18Op, the monthly response of δ18Od to coeval precipitation is not completely damped, and some of them follow the seasonal trend of δ18Op very well. These drips may be mainly recharged by present-day precipitation, mixing with some stored water. Thus, the stalagmites growing under them may record portions of the seasonal climatic signals embedded in δ18Op. About 6% of the thirty-four drip sites

  5. Planetary Boundary Layer Patterns, Height Variability and their Controls over the Indian Subcontinent with respect to Monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sathyanadh, A.; Karipot, A.; Prabhakaran, T.

    2016-12-01

    Planetary boundary layer (PBL) height and its controlling factors undergo large variations at different spatio-temporal scales over land regions. In the present study, Modern Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) data products are used to investigate variations of PBL height and its controls in relation to different phases of Indian monsoon. MERRA PBL height validations carried out against those estimated from radiosonde and Global Positioning System Radio Occultation atmospheric profiles revealed fairly good agreement. Different PBL patterns are identified in terms of maximum height, its time of occurrence and growth rate, and they vary with respect to geographical locations, terrain characteristics and monsoon circulation. The pre-monsoon boundary layers are the deepest over the region, often exceeding 4 km and grow at a rate of approximately 400 m hr-1. Large nocturnal BL depths, possibly related to weakly convective residual layers, are another feature noted during dry conditions. Monsoon BLs are generally shallower, except where rainfall is scanty. The break-monsoon periods have slightly deeper BLs than the active monsoon phase. The controlling factors for the observed boundary layer behaviour are investigated using supplementary MERRA datasets. Evaporative fraction is found to have dominant control on the PBL height varying with seasons and regions. The characteristics and controls of wet and dry boundary layer regimes over inland and coastal locations are different. The fractional diffusion (ratio of non-local and total diffusion) coefficient analyses indicated that enhanced entrainment during monsoon contributes to reduction in PBLH unlike in the dry period. The relationship between controls and PBLH are better defined over inland than coastal regions. The wavelet cross spectral analysis revealed temporal variations in dominant contributions from the controlling factors at different periodicities during the course of the year.

  6. SEASONAL AND INTER-ANNUAL VARIABILITY OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WARM POOL AND ITS RELATION TO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA MONSOON ONSET

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    赵永平; 陈永利

    2001-01-01

    The South China Sea warm pool interacts vigorously with the summer monsoon which is active in the region. However, there has not been a definition concerning the former warm pool which is as specific as that for the latter. The seasonal and inter-annual variability of the South China Sea warm pool and its relations to the South China Sea monsoon onset were analyzed using Levitus and NCEP/NCAR OISST data. The results show that, the seasonal variability of the South China Sea warm pool is obvious, which is weak in winter, develops rapidly in spring, becomes strong and extensive in summer and early autumn, and quickly decays from mid-autumn. The South China Sea warm pool is 55 m in thickness in the strongest period and its axis is oriented from southwest to northeast with the main section locating along the western offshore steep slope of northern Kalimantan-Palawan Island. For the warm pools in the South China Sea, west Pacific and Indian Ocean, the oscillation, which is within the same large scale air-sea coupling system, is periodic around 5 years. There are additional oscillations of about 2.5 years and simultaneous inter-annual variations for the latter two warm pools. The intensity of the South China Sea warm pool varies by a lag of about 5 months as compared to the west Pacific one. The result also indicates that the inter-annual variation of the intensity index is closely related with the onset time of the South China Sea monsoon. When the former is persistently warmer (colder) in preceding winter and spring, the monsoon in the South China Sea usually sets in on a later (earlier) date in early summer. The relation is associated with the activity of the high pressure over the sea in early summer. An oceanic background is given for the prediction of the South China Sea summer monsoon, though the mechanism through which the warm pool and eventually the monsoon are affected remains unclear.

  7. Quantifying climatic variability in monsoonal northern China over the last 2200 years and its role in driving Chinese dynastic changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jianyong; Dodson, John; Yan, Hong; Zhang, David D.; Zhang, Xiaojian; Xu, Qinghai; Lee, Harry F.; Pei, Qing; Cheng, Bo; Li, Chunhai; Ni, Jian; Sun, Aizhi; Lu, Fengyan; Zong, Yongqiang

    2017-03-01

    Our understanding on the spatial-temporal patterns of climatic variability over the last few millennia in the East Asian monsoon-dominated northern China (NC), and its role at a macro-scale in affecting the prosperity and depression of Chinese dynasties is limited. Quantitative high-resolution, regionally-synthesized palaeoclimatic reconstructions as well as simulations, and numerical analyses of their relationships with various fine-scale, numerical agro-ecological, social-economic, and geo-political historical records during the period of China's history, are presented here for NC. We utilize pollen data together with climate modeling to reconstruct and simulate decadal- to centennial-scale variations in precipitation or temperature for NC during the last 2200 years (-200-2000 AD). We find an overall cyclic-pattern (wet/warm or dry/cold) in the precipitation and temperature anomalies on centennial- to millennial-scale that can be likely considered as a representative for the entire NC by comparison with other related climatic records. We suggest that solar activity may play a key role in driving the climatic fluctuations in NC during the last 22 centuries, with its quasi ∼100, 50, 23, or 22-year periodicity clearly identified in our climatic reconstructions. We employ variation partitioning and redundancy analysis to quantify the independent effects of climatic factors on accounting for the total variation of 17 fine-grained numerical Chinese historical records. We quantitatively illustrate that precipitation (67.4%) may have been more important than temperature (32.5%) in causing the overall agro-ecological and macro-geopolitical shifts in imperial China with NC as the central ruling region and an agricultural heartland over the last 2200 years.

  8. The long-term variability of Changma in the East Asian summer monsoon system: A review and revisit

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, June-Yi; Kwon, MinHo; Yun, Kyung-Sook; Min, Seung-Ki; Park, In-Hong; Ham, Yoo-Geun; Jin, Emilia Kyung; Kim, Joo-Hong; Seo, Kyong-Hwan; Kim, WonMoo; Yim, So-Young; Yoon, Jin-Ho

    2017-05-01

    Changma, which is a vital part of East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) system, plays a critical role in modulating water and energy cycles in Korea. Better understanding of its long-term variability and change is therefore a matter of scientific and societal importance. It has been indicated that characteristics of Changma have undergone significant interdecadal changes in association with the mid-1970s global-scale climate shift and the mid-1990s EASM shift. This paper reviews and revisits the characteristics on the long-term changes of Changma focusing on the underlying mechanisms for the changes. The four important features are manifested mainly during the last few decades: 1) mean and extreme rainfalls during Changma period from June to September have been increased with the amplification of diurnal cycle of rainfall, 2) the dry spell between the first and second rainy periods has become shorter, 3) the rainfall amount as well as the number of rainy days during August have significantly increased, probably due to the increase in typhoon landfalls, and 4) the relationship between the Changma rainfall and Western Pacific Subtropical High on interannual time scale has been enhanced. The typhoon contribution to the increase in heavy rainfall is attributable to enhanced interaction between typhoons and midlatitude baroclinic environment. It is noted that the change in the relationship between Changma and the tropical sea surface temperature (SST) over the Indian, Pacific, and Atlantic Oceans is a key factor in the long-term changes of Changma and EASM. Possible sources for the recent mid-1990s change include 1) the tropical dipole-like SST pattern between the central Pacific and Indo-Pacific region (the global warming hiatus pattern), 2) the recent intensification of tropical SST gradients among the Indian Ocean, the western Pacific, and the eastern Pacific, and 3) the tropical Atlantic SST warming.

  9. Summer monsoon rainfall variability over North East regions of India and its association with Eurasian snow, Atlantic Sea Surface temperature and Arctic Oscillation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prabhu, Amita; Oh, Jaiho; Kim, In-won; Kripalani, R. H.; Mitra, A. K.; Pandithurai, G.

    2016-11-01

    This observational study during the 29-year period from 1979 to 2007 evaluates the potential role of Eurasian snow in modulating the North East-Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall with a lead time of almost 6 months. This link is manifested by the changes in high-latitude atmospheric winter snow variability over Eurasia associated with Arctic Oscillation (AO). Excessive wintertime Eurasian snow leads to an anomalous cooling of the overlying atmosphere and is associated with the negative mode of AO, inducing a meridional wave-train descending over the tropical north Atlantic and is associated with cooling of this region. Once the cold anomalies are established over the tropical Atlantic, it persists up to the following summer leading to an anomalous zonal wave-train further inducing a descending branch over NE-India resulting in weak summer monsoon rainfall.

  10. Synchronicity of the East Asian Summer Monsoon variability and Northern Hemisphere climate change since the last deglaciation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Shinozaki

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Understanding of the mechanism of the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM is required for the prediction of climate change in East Asia in a scenario of modern global warming. In this study, we present high-resolution climate records from peat sediments in Northeast Japan to reconstruct the EASM variability based on peat bulk cellulose δ13C since the last deglaciation. We used a 8.8 m long peat sediment core collected from the Tashiro Bog, Northeast Japan. Based on 42 14C measurements, the core bottom reaches ~15.5 ka. δ13C, accumulation rate and accumulation flux time-series correlate well to Greenland ice core δ18O variability, suggesting that the climate record in Northeast Japan is linked to global climate changes. The δ13C record at Tashiro Bog and other paleo-EASM records at Northeast and Southern China consistently demonstrate that hydrological environments were spatially different in mid-high and mid-low latitude regions over the last 15.5 kyr. During global cooling (warming periods, mid-high and mid-low latitude regions were characterized by wet (dry and dry (wet environments, respectively. We suggest that these climatic patterns are related to the migration of the EASM-related rain belt during global climate changes, as a consequence of variations in intensity and location of both the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ and the Western Pacific Subtropical High (STH. The location of the rain belt largely influences the East Asian hydrological environment. Our δ13C time-series are characterized by a 1230 yr throughout the Holocene and a 680 yr periodicity during the early Holocene. The 1230 yr periodicity is in agreement with North Atlantic ice-rafted debris (IRD events, suggesting a teleconnection between the Northeast Japan and the North Atlantic during the Holocene. In addition, it is the first evidence that the Bond events were recorded in terrestrial sediment in

  11. Comparison of remote sensing data with in-situ wind observation during the development of the South China Sea monsoon

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI Jian; WANG Dongxiao; CHEN Ju; YANG Lei

    2012-01-01

    Wind measurements derived from QuikSCAT data were compared with those measured by anemometer on Yongxing Island in the South China Sea (SCS) for the period from April 2008 to November 2009.The comparison confirms that QuikSCAT estimates of wind speed and direction are generally accurate,except for the extremes of high wind speeds (>13.8 m/s) and very low wind speeds (<1.5 m/s)where direction is poorly predicted.In-situ observations show that the summer monsoon in the northern S CS starts between May 6 and June 1.From March 13,2010 to August 31,2010,comparisons of sea surface temperature (SST) and rainfall from AMSR-E with data from a buoy located at Xisha Islands,as well as wind measurements derived from ASCAT and observations from an automatic weather station show that QuikSCAT,ASCAT and AMSR-E data are good enough for research.It is feasible to optimize the usage of remote-sensing data if validated with in-situ measurements.Remarkable changes were observed in wind,barometric pressure,humidity,outgoing longwave radiation (OLR),air temperature,rainfall and SST during the monsoon onset.The eastward shift of western Pacific subtropical high and the southward movement of continental cold front preceded the monsoon onset in SCS.The starting dates of SCS summer monsoon indicated that the southwest monsoon starts in the Indochinese Peninsula and forms an eastward zonal belt,and then the belt bifurcates in the SCS,with one part moving northeastward into the tropical western North Pacific,and another southward into western Kalimantan.This largely determined the pattern of the SCS summer monsoon.Wavelet analysis of zonal wind and OLR at Xisha showed that intra-seasonal variability played an important role in the summer.This work improves the accuracy of the amplitude of intra-seasonal and synoptic variation obtained from remote-sensed data.

  12. On understanding the land-ocean CO2 contrast over the Bay of Bengal: a case study during 2009 summer monsoon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, K Ravi; Tiwari, Yogesh K; Valsala, Vinu; Murtugudde, Raghu

    2014-04-01

    Ship-based observations of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) between 17 July 2009 and 17 Aug 2009 offered an excellent opportunity to evaluate the land-ocean contrast of surface CO2 and facilitated its comparison with model simulated CO2 concentrations. Elevated values of CO2 with large variability near the coastal region and relatively low values with correspondingly lower variability over the open ocean suggest that this observed CO2 variability over the ocean essentially captures the differences in terrestrial and oceanic CO2 fluxes. Although the region under investigation is well known for its atmospheric intraseasonal oscillations of Indian summer monsoon during July and August, the limited duration of observations performed from a moving ship in a research cruise, is not able to capture any high-frequency variability of atmospheric CO2 concentrations. But band-passed sea surface temperature and wind anomalies do indicate strong intraseasonal variability over the study region during the observational period. The synoptic data, albeit quite short in duration, thus offer a clear benchmark for abrupt variability of CO2 concentration between land and ocean.

  13. Prediction of daily modes of South Asian monsoon variability and its association with Indian and Pacific Ocean SST in the NCEP CFS V2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shahi, Namendra Kumar; Rai, Shailendra; Pandey, D. K.

    2016-02-01

    The prediction capability of daily modes of variability for South Asian monsoon from climate forecast system version 2 of national centers for environmental prediction with respect to observed precipitation has been assessed. The space-time structure of the daily modes for summer monsoon rainfall has been identified by using multi-channel singular spectrum analysis (MSSA). The MSSA is applied on daily anomalies of rainfall data over the South Asian monsoon region (40°E-160°E, 30°S-35°N) for the period of 2001-2013 with a lag window of 61 days for June-July-August-September season. The broad spectrum around 45 and 50 days was obtained from the observed and model data during the time domain of our study. The space-time structure of the modes obtained from the model shows good resemblance with respect to the observation. The observed northeastward propagation of oscillatory mode is well simulated by the model. The significant improvement in the space-time structure, period of oscillation, and propagation of oscillatory modes was found in the model. The observed connectivity of oscillatory and persisting modes with the sea surface temperature of Indian and Pacific Ocean has also been investigated and it was found that the model is able to predict it reasonably well.

  14. Influence of Indian summer monsoon variability on the surface waves in the coastal regions of eastern Arabian Sea

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    SanilKumar, V.; Jesbin, G.

    >) of June was lowest (~1.5m) in 2009. The spectral peak shifted to lower frequencies in September due to the reduction of wind seas as a result of decrease in monsoon intensity. The study shows high positive correlation (r~0.84) between average low-level jet...

  15. Molecular records of continental air temperature and monsoon precipitation variability in East Asia spanning the past 130,000 years

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Peterse, F.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/371172314; Martínez-García, A.; Zhou, B.; Beets, C.J.; Prins, M.A.; Zheng, H.; Eglinton, T.I.

    2014-01-01

    Our current understanding of past changes in East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) precipitation intensity derives from several loess–paleosol sequences and oxygen isotope (δ18O) records of well-dated stalagmites. Although temperature is generally presumed to have had minimal impact on EASM records, past

  16. Evolution and variability of the Asian monsoon and its potential linkage with uplift of the Himalaya and Tibetan Plateau

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tada, Ryuji; Zheng, Hongbo; Clift, Peter D.

    2016-12-01

    Uplift of the Himalaya and Tibetan Plateau (HTP) and its linkage with the evolution of the Asian monsoon has been regarded as a typical example of a tectonic-climate linkage. Although this linkage remains unproven because of insufficient data, our understanding has greatly advanced in the past decade. It is thus timely to summarize our knowledge of the uplift history of the HTP, the results of relevant climate simulations, and spatiotemporal changes in the Indian and East Asian monsoons since the late Eocene. Three major pulses of the HTP uplift have become evident: (1) uplift of the southern and central Tibetan Plateau (TP) at ca. 40-35 Ma, (2) uplift of the northern TP at ca. 25-20 Ma, and (3) uplift of the northeastern to eastern TP at ca. 15-10 Ma. Modeling predictions suggest that (i) uplift of the southern and central TP should have intensified the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) and the Somali Jet at 40-35 Ma; (ii) uplift of the northern TP should have intensified the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM), as well as the desertification of inland Asia at 25-20 Ma; and (iii) uplift of the northeastern and eastern TP should have further intensified the EASM and EAWM at 15-10 Ma. We tested these predictions by comparing them with paleoclimate data for the time intervals of interest. There are insufficient paleoclimate data to test whether the ISM and Somali Jet intensified with the uplift of the southern and central TP at 40-35 Ma, but it is possible that such uplift enhanced erosion and weathering that drew down atmospheric CO2 and resulted in global cooling. There is good evidence that the EASM and EAWM intensified, and desertification started in inland Asia at 25-20 Ma in association with the uplift of the northern TP. The impact of the uplift of the northeastern and eastern TP on the Asian monsoon at 15-10 Ma is difficult to evaluate because that interval was also a time of global cooling and Antarctic glaciation that might also

  17. Decadal- to biennial scale variability of planktic foraminifera in the northeastern Arabian Sea during the last two millennia: evidence for winter monsoon forcing mechanisms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munz, Philipp; Lückge, Andreas; Siccha, Michael; Kucera, Michal; Schulz, Hartmut

    2015-04-01

    The Asian monsoon system is controlling the hydrologic cycle, and thus the agricultural and economic prosperity of the worlds most densely populated region. Strong and moisture-laden winds from the southwest induce upwelling and significant productivity in the western Arabian Sea during boreal summer. During boreal winter, weaker dry and cold surface winds from the northeast nourish ocean productivity mainly in the northeastern Arabian Sea. Instrumental records spanning the last century are too short to understand how the monsoon system reacts to external forcing mechanisms and to accurately determine its natural variability. Compared to the summer monsoon component, the dynamics of the winter monsoon are virtually unknown, due to the lack of adequate archives that are affected only by winter conditions. Here we present a decadal- to biennial-scale resolution record of past winter monsoon variability over the last two millennia, based on census counts of planktic foraminifera from two laminated sediment cores collected offshore Pakistan. One shorter box core (SO90-39KG) spans the last 250 years with an average ~2-year resolution, whereas the longer piston core (SO130-275KL) spans the last 2,100 years with a 10-year resolution. We use Globigerina falconensis as a faunal indicator for winter conditions, a species that is most abundant during winter in the NE Arabian Sea (Peeters and Brummer, 2002; Schulz et al., 2002). Our results show that during the past 2,100 years G. falconensis varied with significant periodicities centered on ˜ 60, ˜ 53, ˜ 40, ˜ 34 and ˜ 29 years per cycle. Some of these periods closely match cycles that are known from proxy records of solar irradiance, suggesting a solar forcing on winter monsoon variability. During the past 250 years G. falconensis varied in correlation with the (11-year) Schwabe and the (22-year) Hale solar cycles. Furthermore, a significant ˜ 7 year cyclicity could indicate a teleconnection to the El Niño Southern

  18. The impact of revised simplified Arakawa-Schubert scheme on the simulation of mean and diurnal variability associated with active and break phases of Indian summer monsoon using CFSv2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ganai, Malay; Krishna, R. Phani Murali; Mukhopadhyay, P.; Mahakur, M.

    2016-08-01

    The impact of revised simplified Arakawa-Schubert (RSAS) convective parameterization scheme in Climate Forecast System (CFS) version 2 (CFSv2) on the simulation of active and break phases of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) has been investigated. The results revealed that RSAS showed better fidelity in simulating monsoon features from diurnal to daily scales during active and break periods as compared to SAS simulation. Prominent improvement can be noted in simulating diurnal phase of precipitation in RSAS over central India (CI) and equatorial Indian Ocean (EIO) region during active periods. The spatial distribution of precipitation largely improved in RSAS simulation during active and break episodes. CFSv2 with SAS simulation has noticeable dry bias over CI and wet bias over EIO region which appeared to be largely reduced in RSAS simulation during both phases of the intraseasonal oscillation (ISO). During active periods, RSAS simulates more realistic probability distribution function (PDF) in good agreement with the observation. The relative improvement has been identified in outgoing longwave radiation, monsoon circulations, and vertical velocities in RSAS over SAS simulation. The improvement of rainfall distribution appears to be contributed by proper simulation of convective rainfall in RSAS. CFSv2 with RSAS simulation is able to simulate observed diurnal cycle of rainfall over CI. It correctly reproduces the time of maximum rainfall over CI. It is found that the improved feedback between moisture and convective processes in RSAS may be attributed to its improved simulation. Besides improvement, RSAS could not reproduce proper tropospheric temperature, cloud hydrometeors over ISM domain which shows the scope for future development.

  19. A unifying view of climate change in the Sahel linking intra-seasonal, interannual and longer time scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giannini, A.; Salack, S.; Lodoun, T.; Ali, A.; Gaye, A. T.; Ndiaye, O.

    2013-06-01

    We propose a re-interpretation of the oceanic influence on the climate of the African Sahel that is consistent across observations, 20th century simulations and 21st century projections, and that resolves the uncertainty in projections of precipitation change in this region: continued warming of the global tropical oceans increases the threshold for convection, potentially drying tropical land, but this ‘upped ante’ can be met if sufficient moisture is supplied in monsoon flow. In this framework, the reversal to warming of the subtropical North Atlantic, which is now out-pacing warming of the global tropical oceans, provides that moisture, and explains the partial recovery in precipitation since persistent drought in the 1970s and 1980s. We find this recovery to result from increases in daily rainfall intensity, rather than in frequency, most evidently so in Senegal, the westernmost among the three Sahelian countries analyzed. Continuation of these observed trends is consistent with projections for an overall wetter Sahel, but more variable precipitation on all time scales, from intra-seasonal to multi-decadal.

  20. An evaluation of boreal summer intra-seasonal oscillation simulated by BCC_AGCM2.2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fang, Yongjie; Wu, Peili; Wu, Tongwen; Wang, Zaizhi; Zhang, Li; Liu, Xiangwen; Xin, Xiaoge; Huang, Anning

    2017-05-01

    The intra-seasonal oscillation (ISO) is a prominent feature of the East Asia summer monsoon. The Beijing Climate Center model is one of the IPCC models participating in the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP) 3 and CMIP5 experiments. This paper presents a systematic evaluation of ISO simulated by the Beijing Climate Center atmospheric general circulation model version 2.2 against observations. The model reasonably simulates some salient features of BSISO in terms of temporal spectrum, leading EOF modes, and vertical structure, however limitations are also evident. The strength of the BSISO is overestimated and the northward propagating rain belt is tilted southwest-northeast, which is also different from the observation. The model tends to produce unrealistically strong but shallow convection associated with the ISO, leading to a northward shift of the Western Pacific Subtropical High and the main rain band compared to observations. Process studies show that the anomalous convective heating associated with the wet model bias drives a Gill-type response, resulting in the northwesterly biased position of Western Pacific Subtropical High. The study has revealed how the interaction of moist processes and large-scale dynamics can lead to model bias in simulating the east Asian regional climate system and its variability (ISO in particular). Future improvements in model resolution and convection parameterization are expected to reduce such errors.

  1. An evaluation of boreal summer intra-seasonal oscillation simulated by BCC_AGCM2.2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fang, Yongjie; Wu, Peili; Wu, Tongwen; Wang, Zaizhi; Zhang, Li; Liu, Xiangwen; Xin, Xiaoge; Huang, Anning

    2016-07-01

    The intra-seasonal oscillation (ISO) is a prominent feature of the East Asia summer monsoon. The Beijing Climate Center model is one of the IPCC models participating in the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP) 3 and CMIP5 experiments. This paper presents a systematic evaluation of ISO simulated by the Beijing Climate Center atmospheric general circulation model version 2.2 against observations. The model reasonably simulates some salient features of BSISO in terms of temporal spectrum, leading EOF modes, and vertical structure, however limitations are also evident. The strength of the BSISO is overestimated and the northward propagating rain belt is tilted southwest-northeast, which is also different from the observation. The model tends to produce unrealistically strong but shallow convection associated with the ISO, leading to a northward shift of the Western Pacific Subtropical High and the main rain band compared to observations. Process studies show that the anomalous convective heating associated with the wet model bias drives a Gill-type response, resulting in the northwesterly biased position of Western Pacific Subtropical High. The study has revealed how the interaction of moist processes and large-scale dynamics can lead to model bias in simulating the east Asian regional climate system and its variability (ISO in particular). Future improvements in model resolution and convection parameterization are expected to reduce such errors.

  2. Can intraseasonal to decadal forecasts benefit from from consideration of lunar forcing?

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Malherbe, J

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available A possible forcing mechanism for intra-seasonal rainfall distribution to bi-decadal climate variability is explored. The atmospheric response to external forcing is demonstrated at a daily and annual time scale by noting variation in the Southern...

  3. On breaks of the Indian monsoon

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Sulochana Gadgil; P V Joseph

    2003-12-01

    , there are three or four active-break cycles in a season according to Webster et al (1998) which implies a time scale of about 40 days for which Goswami and Mohan (2000), and Annamalai and Slingo (2001) have studied breaks and active minus break fluctuations. On the other hand, neither the traditional breaks (Ramamurthy 1969; and De et al 1998) nor the rainbreaks occur every year. This suggests that the `breaks' in these studies are weak spells of the intraseasonal variation of the monsoon, which occur every year. We have derived the OLR and circulation patterns associated with rainbreaks and active spells and compared them with the patterns associated with breaks/active minus break spells from these studies. Inspite of differences in the patterns over the Indian region, there is one feature which is seen in the OLR anomaly patterns of breaks identified on the basis of different criteria as well as the rainbreaks identified in this paper viz., a quadrapole over the Asia-west Pacific region arising from anomalies opposite (same) in sign to those over the Indian region occurring over the equatorial Indian Ocean and northern tropical (equatorial) parts of the west Pacific. Thus it appears that this quadrapole is a basic feature of weak spells of the intraseasonal variation over the Asia-west Pacific region. Since the rainbreaks are intense weak spells, this basic feature is also seen in the composite patterns of these breaks. We find that rainbreaks (active spells) are also associated with negative (positive) anomalies over a part of the east Pacific suggesting that the convection over the Indian region is linked to that over the east Pacific not only on the interannual scale (as evinced by the link between the Indian summer monsoon rainfall and ENSO) but on the intraseasonal scale as well.

  4. Can the possibility of some linkage of monsoonal precipitation with solar variability be ignored? Indications from foraminiferal proxy records

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Khare, N.; Nigam, R.

    interest in exploring the possibility to look for the causal link of mo n soonal changes over the Indian subcontinent, with changes in s o- lar activity. The detailed conceptual model to study p a laeo - monsoonal precipitation through fo raminiferal... is based. The uncalibrated 14 C da te (2020 ? 40 years BP ) was calibrated for its conversion to calendar age using CALIB Rev 5.0.1 calibration software downloaded from the web site http...

  5. Evaluation of soil moisture data products over Indian region and analysis of spatio-temporal characteristics with respect to monsoon rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sathyanadh, Anusha; Karipot, Anandakumar; Ranalkar, Manish; Prabhakaran, Thara

    2016-11-01

    Soil moisture (SM) is an essential climate variable of greater relevance in the monsoon scenario, hence validation and understanding of its spatio-temporal variability over the Indian region is of high significance. In the present study, five SM products are evaluated against in situ SM measurements conducted by India Meteorological Department and the selected data product is used for spatio-temporal characterization of SM in relation to monsoon rainfall. The data products evaluated are: European Space Agency's merged satellite SM, Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) Land SM, ECMWF's ERA interim SM, Climate Forecast System Reanalysis SM, and Global Land Data Assimilation System Noah Land Surface Model SM. Comparisons show that seasonal SM patterns in all products generally follow the characteristics of rainfall, even though there are certain differences in details. The statistical estimates indicate fairly good agreement between in situ and the five products, with some variations among them and over the homogeneous rainfall regions. On comparison, MERRA SM is found appropriate for further analyses on spatio-temporal characteristics, which are then carried out with the 20 year (1993-2012) SM data. Stability analyses revealed SM patterns indicative of relative SM variability as well as persistence. The spatial stability analysis depicts dry and wet patterns and their seasonal variations over different geographical locations in relation to all India spatial average. Large temporal variations are found over central, western and northern Indian regions caused by large intraseasonal variability in rainfall. In brief, intraseasonal and interannual soil moisture variations broadly follow the rainfall pattern, with long-term influences attributed to SM memory effects. The soil moisture persistence and dominant scales of variability are explored with autocorrelation and wavelet transform techniques. Seasonal persistence is large over

  6. Workshop on Monsoon Climate Systems: Toward Better Prediction of the Monsoon

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sperber, K R; Yasunari, T

    2005-12-20

    The Earth's monsoon systems are the life-blood of more than two-thirds of the world's population through the rainfall they provide to the mainly agrarian societies they influence. More than 60 experts gathered to assess the current understanding of monsoon variability and to highlight outstanding problems simulating the monsoon.

  7. Variability of the TRMM-PR total and convective and stratiform rain fractions over the Indian region during the summer monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pokhrel, Samir; Sikka, D. R.

    2013-07-01

    Level 3 (3A25) TRMM Precipitation Radar (PR) data are used for 13 years period (1998-2010) to prepare climatology of TRMM PR derived near surface rain (Total rain) and rain fractions for the 4-months duration of Indian Summer Monsoon season (June-September) as well as for individual months. It is found that the total rain is contributed mostly (99 %) by two rain fractions i.e. stratiform and convective rain fractions for the season as well as on the monthly basis. It is also found that total rain estimates by PR are about 65 % of the gauge measured rain over continental India as well as on sub-regional basis. Inter-annual variability of TRMM-PR rain estimates for India mainland and its sub-regions as well as over the neighboring oceanic regions, in terms of coefficient of variability (CV) is discussed. The heaviest rain region over north Bay of Bengal (BoB) is found to have the lowest CV. Another sub-region of low CV lies over the eastern equatorial Indian ocean (EEIO). The CVs of total rain as well as its two major constituents are found to be higher on monthly basis compared to seasonal basis. Existence of a well known dipole between the EEIO and the north BoB is well recognized in PR data also. Significant variation in PR rainfall is found over continental India between excess and deficit monsoon seasons as well as between excess and deficit rainfall months of July and August. Examination of rainfall fractions between the BoB and Central India on year to year basis shows that compensation in rainfall fractions exists on monthly scale on both the regions. Also on the seasonal and monthly scales, compensation is observed in extreme monsoon seasons between the two regions. However, much less compensation is observed between the north BoB and EEIO belts in extreme rain months. This leads to speculation that the deficit and excess seasons over India may result from slight shift of the rainfall from Central India to the neighboring oceanic regions of north Bo

  8. Monsoon Country

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2008-01-01

    Heavy rains have battered areas of south China this year,causing death and destruction For most areas south of the Yangtze River,this year’s monsoon season has come early, with heavy rains triggering floods,damaging crops,threatening reservoirs and causing deaths.

  9. Changes in the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation projected by the CNRM-CM5 model under the RCP 8.5 scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jianying; Mao, Jiangyu

    2016-12-01

    The 30-60-day boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) is the predominant intraseasonal variability in the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) region, representing the canonical northward and northwestward propagating convective components over South Asia (SA) and East Asia/western North Pacific (EA/WNP) sectors in conjunction with eastward propagating convective anomalies. The objective of this study is to assess possible changes of the 30-60-day BSISO in future global warming condition by comparing the twentieth century simulation with the twenty-first century projection produced by the CNRM-CM5 model under the representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP 8.5) scenario. In response to the increase of sea surface temperature in the tropical and subtropical Indian and Pacific Oceans, the saturation specific humidity in the planetary boundary layer (PBL) increases by about 16 %, providing more moisture and moist static energy for tropical convection. Thus, the BSISO will be intensified, with large-amplitude events prevailing in a broader range of the Indo-Pacific region. The convective signal will initiate over more westward parts of the Indian Ocean and decay over the more eastward tropical Pacific. As the strengthening of northward propagations over the SA and EA/WNP sectors is intimately related to equatorial enhanced convective anomalies, the enhanced convective anomalies are accompanied by stronger ascents on the top of the PBL, together with the wetter seasonal-mean PBL background, resulting in stronger northward propagations through moisture mechanisms. Moreover, due to the increased moisture-holding capacity of the low-level atmosphere, the phase speeds of SASM and EA/WNP northward propagation will decrease.

  10. Intraseasonal variation of visibility in Hong Kong

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Wen; Li, Richard C. Y.; Chow, Eric C. H.

    2017-01-01

    Visibility is one of the parameters for indicating air pollution. In this study, visibility variation in Hong Kong during summer and winter is investigated. Visibility in Hong Kong has clear intraseasonal variation. Examination of different environmental parameters suggests that the intraseasonal component dominates the overall circulation anomalies in both summer and winter. Associated with the intraseasonal variation of environmental parameters, obvious variation in visibility impairment is found in both summer and winter. In summer, local visibility and air quality are found to be significantly affected by the (MJO) and the 10-30-day intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) through modulation of associated atmospheric circulations. In winter, the modulation effects appear to be weaker due to the southward shift of the associated convection. The results in this study highlight the importance of the ISO in contributing to the overall variation in visibility in Hong Kong, and provide useful implications for the development of possible mitigation strategies associated with visibility impairment and air pollution in Hong Kong.

  11. Intraseasonal Oscillation in the Tropical Indian Ocean

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2005-01-01

    The features of the intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) of the tropical Indian Ocean are studied using several sources of observational data. It is shown that there are intraseasonal oscillations in the tropical Indian Ocean, but their periods vary with latitude: the major period is about 20-30 days in the equatorial region, about 30-50 days at 10°N/10°S latitude and 60-90 days at 20°N/20°S latitude. The intensity of the ISO increases with latitude but the speed of the westward propagation of the ISO decreases with latitude. The intensity and propagation speed of the ISO have clear interannual variation features. The atmospheric intraseasonal oscillation over the tropical Indian Ocean is also analyzed and compared with the oceanic intraseasonal oscillation. It is shown that the major period is in the range 30-60 days and the intensity and period of the atmospheric ISO decrease with latitude slightly. The zonal propagation of the atmospheric ISO also has some differences with the oceanic ISO. It is necessary to study the relationship between the atmospheric ISO and oceanic ISO in the tropical Indian Ocean deeply.

  12. Dry and wet spell variability during monsoon in gauge-based gridded daily precipitation datasets over India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaudhary, Shushobhit; Dhanya, C. T.; Vinnarasi, R.

    2017-03-01

    Accurate estimates of monsoonal rainfall at daily time scales are essential inputs for various water-related sectors such as drought and flood forecasting, crop and water management for agriculture. To serve this purpose, a variety of rainfall products, especially the gauge based products which serve as the ground-truth for other derived rainfall products, are available over India. In this study, three different daily gauge based gridded rainfall datasets, namely Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), Asian Precipitation Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation of water resources (APHRODITE) and Climate Prediction Center (CPC) unified rain gauge data are compared over India for the monsoon season of 1979-2007. The comparison among the datasets is based on the duration, frequency and intensity of three different spell characteristics, namely dry, wet and extreme wet spells, and their associated trends. Wet (dry) spells are defined as the consecutive period of wet (dry) days, where a wet (dry) day is defined using rainfall threshold of 1 mm. Extreme wet spells are defined using the 90th percentile of rainfall above the depth of wet day. All datasets capture the spatial distribution of precipitation characteristics, albeit with pronounced differences at heavy rainfall regions. CPC and IMD show a close match in spell characteristics while APHRODITE significantly deviates. APHRODITE shows increased intensity of rainfall during dry periods, leading to over-estimation of wet days and under-estimation of dry days. Northern extreme of India (Jammu and Kashmir) show major differences in replicating the spell characteristics. Trend patterns are also not consistent between the three datasets. The present study will provide information on the spatio-temporal pattern of dry, wet and extreme wet spell characteristics over India and aid in selecting appropriate datasets for studying the Indian monsoon rainfall depending on their scope and application of

  13. Decadal variability in snow depth anomaly over Eurasia and its association with all India summer monsoon rainfall and seasonal circulations

    CERN Document Server

    Singh, G P

    2003-01-01

    The Historical Soviet Daily Snow Depth (HSDSD) version II data set has been used in the computation of winter and spring snow depth anomalies over west (25 deg. E to 70 deg. E, 35 deg. N to 65 deg. N) and east (70 deg. E to 160 deg. E, 35 deg. N to 65 deg. N) Eurasia. It is noticed that winter snow depth anomaly over east Eurasia is positively correlated while west Eurasia is negatively correlated with subsequent Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR). The DJF snow depth anomaly shows highest and inverse correlation coefficient (CC) with ISMR over a large area of west Eurasia in a recent period of study i.e. 1975-1995. On the basis of standardised winter (mean of December, January and February) snow depth anomaly over west Eurasia, the years 1966, 1968, 1979 and 1986 are identified as high snow years and the years 1961 and 1975 as low snow years. The characteristics of seasonal monsoon circulation features have been studied in detail during contrasting years of less (more) snow depth in winter/spring seasons f...

  14. Mid-Holocene variability of the East Asian monsoon based on bulk organic δ13C and C/N records from the Pearl River estuary, southern China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, F.; Zong, Y.; Lloyd, J. M.; Leng, M. J.; Switzer, A. D.; Yim, W. W.; Huang, G.

    2012-12-01

    Understanding the mid-Holocene dynamics of the East Asian monsoon (EAM) is integral to modelling the Holocene development of the global climate system (Webster et al., 1998). Thus the mid-Holocene EAM history was reconstructed using bulk organic carbon isotopes (δ13C), total carbon to total nitrogen (C/N) ratios and total organic carbon (TOC) from a sediment core (UV1), at a mean resolution of 7-10 years, from the Pearl River estuary, southern China. Sedimentary δ13C, C/N and TOC from the Pearl River estuary is a good indicator of changes in monsoonal precipitation strength (Zong et al., 2006; Yang et al., 2010; Yu et al., 2010), eg sediments buried during a period of high precipitation exhibit a high proportion of terrigenous sediments, and have low δ13C and high C/N, and vice versa (Yu et al., 2010). Results suggest a general decreasing trend in monsoonal precipitation from 6650 to 2215 cal yr BP because of the weakening Northern Hemisphere insolation most likely related to the current precession circle (An, 2000). Superimposed on this trend are apparent dry-wet oscillations at centennial to millennial timescales most likely in response to solar activity. Mismatch between δ13C and results from the Dongge Cave in southern China at millennial-timescale oscillations (Wang et al., 2005), may indicate that the δ13C from the Pearl River estuary reveals changes in precipitation in a broader area than the δ18O from Dongge Cave does. Reference An Z (2000) The history and variability of the East Asian paleomonsoon climate. Quaternary Science Reviews 19: 171-187. Wang Y, Cheng H, Edwards RL, He Y, Kong X, An Z, Wu J, Kelly MJ, Dykoski CA and Li X (2005) The Holocene Asian Monsoon: Links to Solar Changes and North Atlantic Climate. Science 308: 854-857. Webster PJ, Magaña VO, Palmer TN, Shukla J and Tomas RA (1998) Monsoons: Processes, predictability, and the prospects for prediction. Journal of Geophysical Research 103(C7): 14451-14510. Yang S, Tang M, Yim WWS, Zong

  15. The Interdecadal Variability of Summer Precipitation over the South of China and its Response to Asian Monsoon at the Turning Points of Global Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Huan; Li, Dongliang

    2017-04-01

    Under the background of global warming, decadal variability of the summer precipitation in the South of China and the Asian monsoon experienced mutations at around the end of 1970s, the beginning of 1990s and 21st century. We examined the external and internal forcings which may cause the mutations and diagnosed the mechanism. Human emission of CO2 has always been the fatal reason for global warming, and it is also the primary reason for the precipitation increasing over Yangtze-Huai river basin at the end of the 1970s. The Yangtze-Huai river basin and South China demonstrated more summer rainfall after 1993. This can be explained by the weakening of the Asian summer monsoon caused by the positive anomaly of summer SST over northwest Pacific Ocean and Indian Ocean. A significant trend in the enhancement of sensible heat over the TP has exerted some considerable influence on the reinforce of the EASM, accompanied by the northward migration of the summer precipitation belt shifting northward at the beginning of 21st century.

  16. Processes of 30–90 days sea surface temperature variability in the northern Indian Ocean during boreal summer

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Vialard, J.; Jayakumar, A.; Gnanaseelan, C.; Lengaigne, M.; Sengupta, D.; Goswami, B.N.

    of the convectively active region. The composites in Joseph and Sabin (2008) also clearly show signals in the Arabian Sea, but the authors focus on the potential feedbacks of SST variations in the Bay of Bengal on the active-break monsoon cycle. This study has two... (104%, Table 4). Heat fluxes con- tribute negatively to the 30–90 days SST variability (-15%). This could be the sign of a negative feedback of atmospheric heat fluxes on intraseasonal SST variations in this region. The Somalia upwelling region is known...

  17. Monsoon variability in the northeastern Arabian Sea on orbital- and millennial scale during the past 200,000 years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lückge, Andreas; Groeneveld, Jeroen; Steinke, Stephan; Mohtadi, Mahyar; Westerhold, Thomas; Schulz, Hartmut

    2016-04-01

    The Dansgaard-Oeschger oscillations and Heinrich events described in the Greenland ice cores and in North Atlantic and Western Mediterranean sediments are also expressed in the climate of the tropics, for example, as documented in Arabian Sea sediments. However, little is known about these fluctuations beyond the reach of the Greenland ice cores. Here, we present high-resolution geochemical, sedimentological as well as micropaleontological data from two cores (SO130-283KL, 987m water depth and SO130-289KL, 571m) off the coast of Pakistan, extending the monsoon record on orbital and millennial scales to the past 200,000 years. The stable oxygen isotope record of the surface-dwelling planktonic foraminifer G. ruber shows a strong correspondence to Greenland ice core δ18O, whereas the deepwater δ18O signal of benthic foraminifera (U. peregrina and G. affinis) reflects patterns recorded in ice cores from Antarctica. Strong shifts in benthic δ18O during stadials/Heinrich events are interpreted to show frequent advances of oxygen-rich intermediate water masses into the Arabian Sea originating from the southern ocean. Alkenone-derived SSTs varied between 23 and 28° C. Highest temperatures were encountered during interglacial MIS 5. Rapid SST changes of 2° C magnitude on millennial scale are overlain by long-term SST fluctuations. Interstadials (of glacial phases) and the cold phases of interglacials are characterized by sediments enriched in organic carbon (up to 4 % TOC) whereas sediments with low TOC contents (climate transitions, such as onsets of interstadials, were coeval with changes in productivity-related and anoxia-indicating proxies. Interstadial inorganic elemental data consistently show that enhanced fluxes of terrestrial-derived sediments are paralleled by productivity maxima, and are characterized by an increased fluvial contribution from the Indus River. In contrast, stadials are characterized by an increased contribution of aeolian dust probably from

  18. Non-stationary and non-linear influence of ENSO and Indian Ocean Dipole on the variability of Indian monsoon rainfall and extreme rain events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krishnaswamy, Jagdish; Vaidyanathan, Srinivas; Rajagopalan, Balaji; Bonell, Mike; Sankaran, Mahesh; Bhalla, R. S.; Badiger, Shrinivas

    2015-07-01

    The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are widely recognized as major drivers of inter-annual variability of the Indian monsoon (IM) and extreme rainfall events (EREs). We assess the time-varying strength and non-linearity of these linkages using dynamic linear regression and Generalized Additive Models. Our results suggest that IOD has evolved independently of ENSO, with its influence on IM and EREs strengthening in recent decades when compared to ENSO, whose relationship with IM seems to be weakening and more uncertain. A unit change in IOD currently has a proportionately greater impact on IM. ENSO positively influences EREs only below a threshold of 100 mm day-1. Furthermore, there is a non-linear and positive relationship between IOD and IM totals and the frequency of EREs (>100 mm day-1). Improvements in modeling this complex system can enhance the forecasting accuracy of the IM and EREs.

  19. Enhancing the Variable Infiltration Capacity Model to Account for Natural and Anthropogenic Impacts on Evapotranspiration in the North American Monsoon Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bohn, T. J.; Vivoni, E. R.

    2015-12-01

    Evapotranspiration (ET) is a poorly constrained flux in the North American monsoon (NAM) region, leading to potential errors in land-atmosphere feedbacks. Due to the region's arid to semi-arid climate, two factors play major roles in ET: sparse vegetation that exhibits dramatic seasonal greening, and irrigated agriculture. To more accurately characterize the spatio-temporal variations of ET in the NAM region, we used the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, modified to account for soil evaporation (Esoil), irrigated agriculture, and the variability of land surface properties derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer during 2000-2012. Simulated ET patterns were compared to field observations at fifty-nine eddy covariance towers, water balance estimates in nine basins, and six available gridded ET products. The modified VIC model performed well at eddy covariance towers representing the natural and agricultural land covers in the region. Simulations revealed that major source areas for ET were forested mountain areas during the summer season and irrigated croplands at peak times of growth in the winter and summer, accounting for 22% and 9% of the annual ET, respectively. Over the NAM region, Esoil was the largest component (60%) of annual ET, followed by plant transpiration (T, 32%) and evaporation of canopy interception (8%). Esoil and T displayed different relations with P in natural land covers, with Esoil tending to peak earlier than T by up to one month, while only a weak correlation between ET and P was found in irrigated croplands. These VIC-based estimates are the most realistic to date for this region, outperforming several other process-based and remote-sensing-based gridded ET products. Furthermore, spatio-temporal patterns reveal new information on the magnitudes, locations and timing of ET in the North American monsoon region, with implications for land-atmosphere feedbacks.

  20. Indian summer monsoon rainfall variability in response to differences in the decay phase of El Niño

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chowdary, Jasti S.; Harsha, H. S.; Gnanaseelan, C.; Srinivas, G.; Parekh, Anant; Pillai, Prasanth; Naidu, C. V.

    2016-06-01

    In general the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall is near normal or excess during the El Niño decay phase. Nevertheless the impact of large variations in decaying El Niño on the ISM rainfall and circulation is not systematically examined. Based on the timing of El Niño decay with respect to boreal summer season, El Niño decay phases are classified into three types in this study using 142 years of sea surface temperature (SST) data, which are as follows: (1) early-decay (ED; decay during spring), (2) mid-summer decay (MD; decay by mid-summer) and (3) no-decay (ND; no decay in summer). It is observed that ISM rainfall is above normal/excess during ED years, normal during MD years and below normal/deficit in ND years, suggesting that the differences in El Niño decay phase display profound impact on the ISM rainfall. Tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) SST warming, induced by El Niño, decays rapidly before the second half of the monsoon season (August and September) in ED years, but persists up to the end of the season in MD years, whereas TIO warming maintained up to winter in ND case. Analysis reveals the existence of strong sub-seasonal ISM rainfall variations in the summer following El Niño years. During ED years, strong negative SST anomalies develop over the equatorial central-eastern Pacific by June and are apparent throughout the summer season accompanied by anomalous moisture divergence and high sea level pressure (SLP). The associated moisture convergence and low SLP over ISM region favour excess rainfall (mainly from July onwards). This circulation and rainfall anomalies are highly influenced by warm TIO SST and Pacific La Niña conditions in ED years. Convergence of southwesterlies from Arabian Sea and northeasterlies from Bay of Bengal leads to positive rainfall over most part of the Indian subcontinent from August onwards in MD years. ND years are characterized by negative rainfall anomaly spatial pattern and weaker circulation over India throughout the

  1. Do dynamic regional models add value to the global model projections of Indian monsoon?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Swati; Ghosh, Subimal; Sahana, A. S.; Vittal, H.; Karmakar, Subhankar

    2017-02-01

    Dynamic Regional Climate Models (RCMs) work at fine resolution for a limited region and hence they are presumed to simulate regional climate better than General Circulation Models (GCMs). Simulations by RCMs are used for impacts assessment, often without any evaluation. There is a growing debate on the added value made by the regional models to the projections of GCMs specifically for the regions like, United States and Europe. Evaluation of RCMs for Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) has been overlooked in literature, though there are few disjoint studies on Indian monsoon extremes and biases. Here we present a comprehensive study on the evaluations of RCMs for the ISMR with all its important characteristics such as northward and eastward propagation, onset, seasonal rainfall patterns, intra-seasonal oscillations, spatial variability and patterns of extremes. We evaluate nine regional simulations from Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment and compare them with their host Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-5 GCM projections. We do not find any consistent improvement in the RCM simulations with respect to their host GCMs for any of the characteristics of Indian monsoon except the spatial variation. We also find that the simulations of the ISMR characteristics by a good number of RCMs, are worse than those of their host GCMs. No consistent added value is observed in the RCM simulations of changes in ISMR characteristics over recent periods, compared to past; though there are few exceptions. These results highlight the need for proper evaluation before utilizing regional models for impacts assessment and subsequent policy making for sustainable climate change adaptation.

  2. Maritime Continent rainfall variability during the TRMM era: The role of monsoon, topography and El Niño Modoki

    Science.gov (United States)

    As-syakur, Abd. Rahman; Osawa, Takahiro; Miura, Fusanori; Nuarsa, I. Wayan; Ekayanti, Ni Wayan; Dharma, I. Gusti Bagus Sila; Adnyana, I. Wayan Sandi; Arthana, I. Wayan; Tanaka, Tasuku

    2016-09-01

    Rainfall is among the most important climatic elements of the Maritime Continent. The Maritime Continent rainfall climate is uniquely located in the world's most active convective area. Satellite data measured by the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B43 based high-resolution rainfall products represent monthly Maritime Continent rainfall characteristics over 16 years. Several statistical scores were employed to analyse annual means, linear trends, seasonal means, and anomalous Maritime Continent rainfall characteristic percentages. The effects of land and topography on rainfall quantities were also studied and compared with the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) gridded precipitation estimates which has low-resolution. Comparison also applied on linear correlation and partial correlation techniques to determine the relationship between rainfall and the El Niño Modoki and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO; hereafter conventional El Niño). The results show that north-south Maritime Continent precipitation is associated with and generated by the northwest and southeast monsoon patterns. In addition, the large-scale circulations are linked with heavy rainfall over this land-ocean region due to large-scale island-topography-induced convective organization. The rainfall responses to El Niño Modoki and conventional El Niño clearly indicated the times at which the conventional El Niño had a higher impact than El Niño Modoki, especially during northern winter and spring, and vice versa during northern fall, and similarly affect during northern summer. Furthermore, the dynamic movements of rainfall anomaly that are caused by El Niño Modoki and the conventional El Niño events spanned from the southwest during June-July-August (JJA) to throughout the northeast ending in March-April-May (MAM).

  3. Monsoon variability for the past 4 ka derived from high-resolution analyses of sediments from lake Nam Co, central Tibetan Plateau

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kasper, T.; Haberzettl, T.; Doberschütz, S.; Daut, G.; Mäusbacher, R.; Wang, J.; Zhu, L.; Wennrich, V.

    2010-12-01

    were used to perform a principle component analysis (PCA). This resulted in the derivation of monsoon variability during the last 4 ka based upon principle component 1 (PC1) which reflects the allochthonous, clastic input into the lake. PC 1 (Si, Ti, K, Fe, Rb) reaches maximum values between approximately 4000 cal BP and 1800 cal BP as well as between 1500 cal BP and 1200 cal BP. This pattern shows a very good correlation to the variability of the Indian Ocean Summer Monsoon as recorded in a peat bog in the north-eastern part of the Tibetan Plateau (Hong et al. 2005).

  4. Simulation of the variability and extremes of daily rainfall during the Indian summer monsoon for present and future times in a global time-slice experiment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    May, W. [Danish Meteorological Institute, Lyngbyvej 100, 2100 Copenhagen (Denmark)

    2004-03-01

    In this study the simulation of the variability and extremes of daily rainfall during the Indian summer monsoon for the present-day and the future climate is investigated. This is done on the basis of a global time-slice experiment (TSL) with the ECHAM4 atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) at a high horizontal resolution of T106. The first time-slice (period: 1970-1999) represents the present-day climate and the second (2060-2089) the future climate. Moreover, observational rainfall data from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP, 1997-2002) and rainfall data from the ECMWF re-analysis (ERA, 1958-2001) are considered. ERA reveals serious deficiencies in its representation of the variability and extremes of daily rainfall during the Indian summer monsoon. These are mainly a severe overestimation of the frequency of wet days over the oceans and in the Himalayas, where also the rainfall intensity is overestimated. Further, ERA shows unrealistically heavy rainfall events over the tropical Indian Ocean. The ECHAM4 atmospheric GCM at a horizontal resolution of T106, on the other hand, simulates the variability and extremes of daily rainfall in good agreement with the observations. The only marked deficiencies are an underestimation of the rainfall intensity on the west coast of the Indian peninsula and in Bangladesh, an overestimation over the tropical Indian Ocean, due to an erroneous northwestward extension of the tropical convergence zone, and an overestimation of the frequency of wet days in Tibet. Further, heavy rainfall events are relatively strong in the centre of the Indian peninsula. For the future, TSL predicts large increases in the rainfall intensity over the tropical Indian Ocean as well as in northern Pakistan and northwest India, but decreases in southern Pakistan, in the centre of the Indian peninsula, and over the western part of the Bay of Bengal. The frequency of wet days is markedly increased over the tropical Indian Ocean and

  5. Intraseasonal patterns in coastal plankton biomass off central Chile derived from satellite observations and a biochemical model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gomez, Fabian A.; Spitz, Yvette H.; Batchelder, Harold P.; Correa-Ramirez, Marco A.

    2017-10-01

    Subseasonal (5-130 days) environmental variability can strongly affect plankton dynamics, but is often overlooked in marine ecology studies. We documented the main subseasonal patterns of plankton biomass in the coastal upwelling system off central Chile, the southern part of the Humboldt System. Subseasonal variability was extracted from temporal patterns in satellite data of wind stress, sea surface temperature, and chlorophyll from the period 2003-2011, and from a realistically forced eddy-resolving physical-biochemical model from 2003 to 2008. Although most of the wind variability occurs at submonthly frequencies (biomass is within the intraseasonal band (30-90 days). The strongest intraseasonal coupling between wind and plankton is in spring-summer, when increased solar radiation enhances the phytoplankton response to upwelling. Biochemical model outputs show intraseasonal shifts in plankton community structure, mainly associated with the large fluctuations in diatom biomass. Diatom biomass peaks near surface during strong upwelling, whereas small phytoplankton biomass peaks at subsurface depths during relaxation or downwelling periods. Strong intraseasonally forced changes in biomass and species composition could strongly impact trophodynamics connections in the ecosystem, including the recruitment of commercially important fish species such as common sardine and anchovy. The wind-driven variability of chlorophyll concentration was connected to mid- and high-latitude atmospheric anomalies, which resemble disturbances with frequencies similar to the tropical Madden-Julian Oscillation.

  6. Thrusts and Prospects on Understanding and Predicting Asian Monsoon Climate

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Bin

    2008-01-01

    Development of monsoon climate prediction through integrated research efforts to improve our understanding of monsoon variability and predictability is a primary goal of the Asian Monsoon Years (2007-2011) and International Monsoon Study under the leadership of the World Climate Research Programme.The present paper reviews recent progress in Asian monsoon research focusing on (1) understanding and modeling of the monsoon variability, (2) determining the sources and limits of predictability, and (3) assessing the current status of climate prediction, with emphasis on the weekly to interannual time scales. Particular attention is paid to identify scientific issues and thrust areas, as well as potential directions to move forward in an attempt to stimulate future research to advance our understanding of monsoon climate dynamics and improve our capability to forecast Asian monsoon climate variation.

  7. Hydroclimate variability of the South American Monsoon System during the last 1600 yr inferred from speleothem isotope records of the north-eastern Andes foothills in Peru

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Apaéstegui

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we explore a speleothem δ18O record from Palestina Cave, North Eastern Peru, at a site on the eastern side of the Andes cordillera, upper Amazon Basin, interpreted as a proxy for South America Summer Monsoon (SASM intensity. This record allows reconstructing SASM activity with 5 yr time resolution over the last 1600 yr, spanning two major periods of climate variability: the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA; 900–1200 AD and Little Ice Age (LIA 1400–1850 AD recognized as periods of decrease and increase SASM activity respectively. Time series and wavelet analyses reveal decadal to multidecadal frequencies. Our results suggest that Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation mode (AMO plays an important role for SASM modulation on multidecadal scale (~65 yr, especially over dry periods such as observed during MCA. Frequencies of 8 and 25 yr simultaneously with multidecadal signal (65 yr are found over the LIA. and suggest that those modes could be related to North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO and Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation mode (IPO. Comparison with other South American Paleoprecipitation records shows that the Atlantic and Pacific decadal to multidecadal variability and their teleconnections play an important role in the intensity and the regional patterns of rainfall distribution during the last 1600 yr.

  8. Active and break spells of the Indian summer monsoon

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    M Rajeevan; Sulochana Gadgil; Jyoti Bhate

    2010-06-01

    In this paper, we suggest criteria for the identification of active and break events of the Indian summer monsoon on the basis of recently derived high resolution daily gridded rainfall dataset over India (1951–2007). Active and break events are defined as periods during the peak monsoon months of July and August, in which the normalized anomaly of the rainfall over a critical area, called the monsoon core zone exceeds 1 or is less than −1.0 respectively, provided the criterion is satisfied for at least three consecutive days. We elucidate the major features of these events. We consider very briefly the relationship of the intraseasonal fluctuations between these events and the interannual variation of the summer monsoon rainfall. We find that breaks tend to have a longer life-span than active spells. While, almost 80% of the active spells lasted 3–4 days, only 40% of the break spells were of such short duration. A small fraction (9%) of active spells and 32% of break spells lasted for a week or longer. While active events occurred almost every year, not a single break occurred in 26% of the years considered. On an average, there are 7 days of active and break events from July through August. There are no significant trends in either the days of active or break events. We have shown that there is a major difference between weak spells and long intense breaks. While weak spells are characterized by weak moist convective regimes, long intense break events have a heat trough type circulation which is similar to the circulation over the Indian subcontinent before the onset of the monsoon. The space-time evolution of the rainfall composite patterns suggests that the revival from breaks occurs primarily from northward propagations of the convective cloud zone. There are important differences between the spatial patterns of the active/break spells and those characteristic of interannual variation, particularly those associated with the link to ENSO. Hence, the

  9. Spatial variability of the structure of the lower troposphere over north western Indian Ocean during 1983 summer monsoon

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    RameshKumar, M.R.; Sadhuram, Y.; Michael, G.S.; Rao, L.V.G.

    The spatial variability of the structure of the lower troposphere over the north western Indian Ocean during the period 12th July to 2nd September, 1983 has been studied using the upper air data collected during the first scientific cruise of @i...

  10. Does Irrigation Buffer Agriculture from Climatic Variability? - Evidence from India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fishman, R.

    2010-12-01

    One of the key potential benefits of water storage and irrigation is the buffering of agricultural production from natural fluctuations in rainfall, be they intra-seasonal, inter-annual or decadal, by storing excess rainfall for times when it is deficient. Economically, the ability to protect food production and income from climatic and weather variability has always been important, especially in developing countries. This ability can be a key asset in adaptation to the uncertainties and enhanced variability in precipitation that is predicted to accompany climate change. It is therefore important to investigate empirically how well irrigation of different kinds has performed in this regard. We use agricultural production statistics in India, a country whose fortune has always been at the mercy of the stochastic monsoon rains, to investigate this question statistically, and study the performance of both surface and groundwater irrigation in different hydro-geologies.

  11. Role of stratiform heating on the organization of convection over the monsoon trough

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ajayamohan, R. S.; Khouider, Boualem; Majda, Andrew J.; Deng, Qiang

    2016-12-01

    It has been recently demonstrated that stratiform heating plays a critical role in the scale-selection of organized tropical convection, in an aquaplanet version of a coarse-resolution atmospheric general circulation model coupled to a stochastic multicloud cumulus parameterization scheme. It is shown that Madden-Julian oscillation-like organization dominates when the model is tuned to produce strong and long lived stratiform heating while it gives rise to mostly convectively coupled waves in the case of weak and short lived stratiform clouds. The study is extended here to the case of an asymmetric forcing mimicking the migration of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) during summer to understand the impact of changes in stratiform heating on the monsoon dynamics. Consistent with the equatorial ITCZ case, strong and long lived stratiform heating promotes northward and eastward moving intraseasonal disturbances while weak and short lived stratiform heating yields mostly westward propgating synoptic scale low pressure systems. Moreover, the underlying intraseasonal versus low pressure system activity seems to impact the strength and extend of the monsoon trough (MT). In the regime with intraseasonal activity the MT is much stronger and extends northward while in the low pressure system case MT is some what weaker in strength but extends further westward. In the low pressure dominated regime, the background vorticity and zonal wind profiles over the monsoon trough are consistent with the observations.

  12. Possible role of pre-monsoon sea surface warming in driving the summer monsoon onset over the Bay of Bengal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Kuiping; Liu, Yanliang; Yang, Yang; Li, Zhi; Liu, Baochao; Xue, Liang; Yu, Weidong

    2016-08-01

    Sea surface temperature (SST) reaches its annual maximum just before the summer monsoon onset and collapses soon after in the central areas of the Bay of Bengal (BoB). Here, the impact of the peak in the pre-monsoon SST on triggering the earliest monsoon onset in the BoB is investigated, with a focus on the role they play in driving the first-branch northward-propagating intra-seasonal oscillations (FNISOs) over the equatorial Eastern Indian Ocean (EIO). During the calm pre-monsoon period, sea surface warming in the BoB could increase the surface equivalent potential temperature (θe) in several ways. Firstly, warming of the sea surface heats the surface air through sensible heating, which forces the air temperature to follow the SST. The elevated air surface temperature accounts for 30 % of the surface θe growth. Furthermore, the elevated air temperature raises the water vapor capacity of the surface air to accommodate more water vapor. Constrained by the observation that the surface relative humidity is maintained nearly constant during the monsoon transition period, the surface specific humidity exhibits a significant increase, according to the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship. Budget analysis indicates that the additional moisture is primarily obtained from sea surface evaporation, which also exhibits a weak increasing trend due to the sea surface warming. In this way, it contributes about 70 % to the surface θe growth. The rapid SST increase during the pre-monsoon period preconditions the summer monsoon onset over the BoB through its contributions to significantly increase the surface θe, which eventually establishes the meridional asymmetry of the atmospheric convective instability in the EIO. The pre-established greater convective instability leads to the FNISO convections, and the summer monsoon is triggered in the BoB region.

  13. Global association of the Madden-Julian Oscillation with monsoon lows and depressions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haertel, Patrick; Boos, William R.

    2017-08-01

    Previous research has revealed that monsoon lows and depressions are modulated on intraseasonal time scales in a few regions, including India, Australia, and the East Pacific. This study examines whether such modulation occurs on a global scale and, in particular, how the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is associated with changes in synoptic-scale vortices across all monsoon regions. The spatial climatology of monsoon disturbances is largely insensitive to MJO amplitude. However, monsoon disturbance frequency (MDF) varies substantially with MJO phase, with regional perturbations of 25 to 90% of the seasonal mean value across the tropics. In off-equatorial locations, MDF maxima occur in locations where the MJO enhances low level cyclonic vorticity, typically near the western edge of midlevel moisture perturbations. In contrast, equatorial MDF perturbations are in phase with MJO moisture and rainfall anomalies, with maxima in regions with strong low level zonal wind convergence.

  14. Reconstruction of the variability of the southwest monsoon during the past 3 ka, from the continental margin of the southeastern Arabian Sea

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Chauhan, O; Vogelsang, E.; Basavaiah, N.; Kader, U.S.A.

    From temporal variation in delta sup(18) O in Globigerinoides ruber and G. sacculifer and geochemical indices of weathering/erosion (chemical index of alteration, Al and Ti), we infer rapid southwest monsoon (SWM) deterioration with dwindling...

  15. Lake records of Northern Hemisphere South American summer monsoon variability from the Cordillera Oriental, Colombia: Initial results from Lago de Tota and Laguna de Ubaque

    Science.gov (United States)

    Escobar, J.; Rudloff, O.; Bird, B. W.

    2013-12-01

    The lack of terrestrial paleoclimate records from the Northern Hemisphere Andes with decadal resolution has meant that our understanding of abrupt South American summer monsoon (SASM) variability during the Holocene is almost exclusively based on data from Southern Hemisphere sites. In order to develop a more integrated and complete picture of the SASM as a system and its response during rapid climate changes, high-resolution paleoclimate records are needed from the Northern Hemisphere Andes. We present initial results from analysis of lake sediment cores that were collected from Lago de Tota (N 5.554, W 72.916) and Laguna de Ubaque (N 4.500, W 73.935) in the Eastern Cordillera of the Colombian Andes. These sediment cores were collected in July 2013 as part on an ongoing paleoclimate research initiative in Colombia. Located in the Boyacá Provence, Lago de Tota is the largest high-altitude lake (3010 masl) in the Northern Hemisphere Andes and the second largest Andean lake in South America. As such, hydrologic changes recorded in the lake's sediment record reflect regional climate responses. Lago de Ubaque (2070 masl) is a small east facing moraine-dammed lake near the capital of Bogotá that contains finely laminated clastic sediments. The initial sedimentological and chronological results demonstrate that Lago de Tota and Laguna de Ubaque have excellent potential for resolving Northern Hemisphere SASM variability at decadal time scales or better. Such records will provide important counterparts to high-resolution paleoclimate records from the Southern Hemisphere Andes.

  16. Intraseasonal Variations in Tropical Energy Balance: Relevance to Climate Sensitivity?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robertson, Franklin R.; Ramey, Holly S.; Roberts, Jason B.

    2011-01-01

    Intraseasonal variability of deep convection represents a fundamental mode of organization for tropical convection. While most studies of intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs) have focused on the spatial propagation and dynamics of convectively coupled circulations, here we examine the projection of ISOs on the tropically-averaged heat and moisture budget. One unresolved question concerns the degree to which observable variations in the "fast" processes (e.g. convection, radiative / turbulent fluxes) can inform our understanding of feedback mechanisms operable in the context of climate change. Our analysis use daily data from satellite observations, the Modern Era analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA), and other model integrations to address these questions: (i) How are tropospheric temperature variations related to that tropical deep convection and the associated ice cloud fractional amount (ICF), ice water path (IWP), and properties of warmer liquid clouds? (ii) What role does moisture transport play vis-a-vis ocean latent heat flux in enabling the evolution of deep convection to mediate PBL - free atmospheric temperature equilibration? (iii) What affect do convectively generated upper-tropospheric clouds have on the TOA radiation budget? Our methodology is similar to that of Spencer et al., (2007 GRL ) whereby a composite time series of various quantities over 60+ ISO events is built using tropical mean tropospheric temperature signal as a reference to which the variables are related at various lag times (from -30 to +30 days). The area of interest encompasses the global oceans between 20oN/S. The increase of convective precipitation cannot be sustained by evaporation within the domain, implying strong moisture transports into the tropical ocean area. The decrease in net TOA radiation that develops after the peak in deep convective rainfall, is part of the response that constitutes a "discharge" / "recharge" mechanism that facilitates tropical heat balance

  17. Intraseasonal coastal upwelling signal along the southern coast of Java observed using Indonesian tidal station data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horii, Takanori; Ueki, Iwao; Syamsudin, Fadli; Sofian, Ibnu; Ando, Kentaro

    2016-04-01

    Sea level variations along the coasts of Sumatra and Java were investigated to determine the coastal upwelling signal that is linked to local sea surface temperature (SST) variability. We used Indonesian tidal station data together with satellite SST data and atmospheric reanalysis data. The sea level variations along the southern coast of Java have a significant coherence with remote wind, local wind, and local SST variations, with an intraseasonal time scale of 20-50 days. Assuming that a coastal upwelling signal would appear as a sea level drop (SLD), we focused on intraseasonal-scale SLD events in the data. Significant upwelling signals are frequently observed during both the boreal summer and winter. To evaluate the impact of the coastal upwelling on local SST, we examined statistical relationships between sea level and SST variations. The results demonstrated that events that occurred during April-August were associated with local SST cooling. The horizontal distribution of the SST cooling was analogous with annual mean SST, suggesting the importance of intraseasonal-scale coastal upwelling in forming the climatic conditions of the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean.

  18. Gridded daily Indian monsoon rainfall for 14 seasons: Merged TRMM and IMD gauge analyzed values

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Ashis K Mitra; I M Momin; E N Rajagopal; S Basu; M N Rajeevan; T N Krishnamurti

    2013-10-01

    Indian monsoon is an important component of earth’s climate system. Daily rainfall data for longer period is vital to study components and processes related to Indian monsoon. Daily observed gridded rainfall data covering both land and adjoining oceanic regions are required for numerical model validation and model development for monsoon. In this study, a new gridded daily Indian rainfall dataset at 1° × 1° latitude/longitude resolution covering 14 monsoon seasons (1998–2011) are described. This merged satellite gauge rainfall dataset (NMSG) combines TRMM TMPA rainfall estimates with gauge information from IMD gridded data. Compared to TRMM and GPCP daily rainfall data, the current NMSG daily data has more information due to inclusion of local gauge analysed values. In terms of bias and skill scores this dataset is superior to other daily rainfall datasets. In a mean climatological sense and also for anomalous monsoon seasons, this merged satellite gauge data brings out more detailed features of monsoon rainfall. The difference of NMSG and GPCP looks significant. This dataset will be useful to researchers for monsoon intraseasonal studies and monsoon model development research.

  19. Tropical stratospheric circulation and monsoon rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sikder, A. B.; Patwardhan, S. K.; Bhalme, H. N.

    1993-09-01

    Interannual variability of both SW monsoon (June September) and NE monsoon (October December) rainfall over subdivisions of Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema and Tamil Nadu have been examined in relation to monthly zonal wind anomaly for 10 hPa, 30 hPa and 50 hPa at Balboa (9°N, 80°W) for the 29 year period (1958 1986). Correlations of zonal wind anomalies to SW monsoon rainfall ( r=0.57, significant at 1% level) is highest with the longer lead time (August of the previous year) at 10 hPa level suggesting some predictive value for Coastal Andhra Pradesh. The probabilities estimated from the contingency table reveal non-occurrence of flood during easterly wind anomalies and near non-occurrence of drought during westerly anomalies for August of the previous year at 10 hPa which provides information for forecasting of performance of SW monsoon over Coastal Andhra Pradesh. However, NE monsoon has a weak relationship with zonal wind anomalies of 10 hPa, 30 hPa and 50 hPa for Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema and Tamil Nadu. Tracks of the SW monsoon storms and depressions in association with the stratospheric wind were also examined to couple with the fluctuations in SW monsoon rainfall. It is noted that easterly / westerly wind at 10 hPa, in some manner, suppresses / enhances monsoon storms and depressions activity affecting their tracks.

  20. On the Vertical Structure of Seasonal, Interannual and Intraseasonal Flows

    Science.gov (United States)

    1992-12-01

    the Vertical Structure of Seasonal, Interannual and Intraseasonal Flows b, AUTHOR(S) Steven Reino Gilbert,Major -. Pf.IFORI.MINt ORGAN!?ATION NAMW(S...AND INTRASEASONAL FLOWS by Steven Reino Gilbert A dissertation submitted to the faculty of The University of Utah in partial fulffifment of the...requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy Department of Meteorology The University of Utah La ! December 1992 Copyright @ Steven Reino Gilbert 1992

  1. High resolution variability in the Quaternary Indian monsoon inferred from records of clastic input and paleo-production recovered during IODP Expedition 355

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hahn, Annette; Lyle, Mitchell; Kulhanek, Denise; Ando, Sergio; Clift, Peter

    2016-04-01

    The sediment cores obtained from the Indus fan at Site U1457 during Expedition 355 of the International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP) contain a ca. 100m spliced section covering the past ca. 1Ma. We aim to make use of this unique long, mostly continuous climate archive to unravel the millennial scale atmospheric and oceanic processes linked to changes in the Indian monsoon climate over the Quaternary glacial-interglacial cycles. Our aim is to fill this gap using fast, cost-efficient methods (Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy [FTIRS] and X-ray Fluorescence [XRF] scanning) which allow us to study this sequence at a millennial scale resolution (2-3cm sampling interval). An important methodological aspect of this study is developing FTIRS as a method for the simultaneous estimation of the sediment total inorganic carbon and organic carbon content by using the specific fingerprint absorption spectra of minerals (e.g. calcite) and organic sediment components. The resulting paleo-production proxies give indications of oceanic circulation patterns and serve as a direct comparison to the XRF scanning data. Initial results show that variability in paleo-production is accompanied by changes in the quantity and composition of clastic input to the site. Phases of increased deposition of terrigenous material are enriched in K, Al, Fe and Si. Both changes in the weathering and erosion focus areas affect the mineralogy and elemental composition of the clastic input as grain size and mineralogical changes are reflected in the ratios of lighter to heavier elements. Furthermore, trace element compositions (Zn, Cu, Mn) give indications of diagenetic processes and contribute to the understanding of the depositional environment. The resulting datasets will lead to a more comprehensive understanding of the interplay of the local atmospheric and oceanic circulation processes over glacial-interglacial cycles; an essential prerequisite for regional predictions of global climate

  2. Earth's eccentricity cycles and Indian Summer Monsoon variability over the past 2 million years: Evidence from deep-sea benthic foraminifer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gupta, Anil K.; Dhingra, Hitesh; Mélice, Jean-Luc; Anderson, David M.

    Spectral analysis of a Uvigerina proboscidea time series from DSDP Site 214 using the Lomb-Scargle method for unevenly sampled data, exhibits two dominant power peaks at 412 and 94 kyrs over the last 2 million years, which correspond to the Earth's eccentricity cycles. The results indicate that the SW monsoon varied at about 100 kyr and 400 kyr periodicities within Earth's eccentricity domain (Milankovitch range) over the past 2 million years. Wavelet transform analysis reveals the non-stationary nature of monsoon upwelling over this interval. The amplitude of the 400 kyr cycle in the U. proboscidea time series began to increase at ∼900 kyrs as has also been observed in few recent studies. We do not see a strong relation between eccentricity highs and intense summer monsoons over the studied interval.

  3. The West African Monsoon simulated by global and regional climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nikulin, Grigory; Jones, Colin; Kjellström, Erik; Gbobaniyi, Emiola

    2013-04-01

    We present results from two ensembles of global and regional climate simulations with a focus on the West African Monsoon (WAM). The first ensemble includes eight coupled atmosphere ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) from the CMIP5 project, namely: CanESM2, CNRM-CM5, HadGEM2-ES, NorESM1-M, EC-EARTH, MIROC5, GFDL-ESM2M and MPI-ESM-LR. The second ensemble consists of corresponding downscaling of all 8 AOGCMs by a regional climate model - RCA4 produced at the Rossby Centre (SMHI) in the Africa-CORDEX activities. Spatial resolution varies from about 1° to 3° in the AOGCM ensemble while all regional simulations are at the same 0.44° resolution. To see what added value higher resolution can provide ability of the eight AOGCMs and the downscaled RCA4(AOGCMs) to simulate the key characteristics of the WAM rainy season are evaluated and then inter-compared between the global and regional ensembles. The main focus in our analysis is on the WAM rainy season onset, cessation, length, total precipitation, its mean intensity and intraseasonal variability. Future climate projections under the RCP45 and RCP85 scenarios are analyzed and again inter-compared for both ensembles in order to assess uncertainties in the future projections of the WAM rainy season from the global and regional ensembles.

  4. Aerosol and monsoon climate interactions over Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Zhanqing; Lau, W. K.-M.; Ramanathan, V.; Wu, G.; Ding, Y.; Manoj, M. G.; Liu, J.; Qian, Y.; Li, J.; Zhou, T.; Fan, J.; Rosenfeld, D.; Ming, Y.; Wang, Y.; Huang, J.; Wang, B.; Xu, X.; Lee, S.-S.; Cribb, M.; Zhang, F.; Yang, X.; Zhao, C.; Takemura, T.; Wang, K.; Xia, X.; Yin, Y.; Zhang, H.; Guo, J.; Zhai, P. M.; Sugimoto, N.; Babu, S. S.; Brasseur, G. P.

    2016-12-01

    The increasing severity of droughts/floods and worsening air quality from increasing aerosols in Asia monsoon regions are the two gravest threats facing over 60% of the world population living in Asian monsoon regions. These dual threats have fueled a large body of research in the last decade on the roles of aerosols in impacting Asian monsoon weather and climate. This paper provides a comprehensive review of studies on Asian aerosols, monsoons, and their interactions. The Asian monsoon region is a primary source of emissions of diverse species of aerosols from both anthropogenic and natural origins. The distributions of aerosol loading are strongly influenced by distinct weather and climatic regimes, which are, in turn, modulated by aerosol effects. On a continental scale, aerosols reduce surface insolation and weaken the land-ocean thermal contrast, thus inhibiting the development of monsoons. Locally, aerosol radiative effects alter the thermodynamic stability and convective potential of the lower atmosphere leading to reduced temperatures, increased atmospheric stability, and weakened wind and atmospheric circulations. The atmospheric thermodynamic state, which determines the formation of clouds, convection, and precipitation, may also be altered by aerosols serving as cloud condensation nuclei or ice nuclei. Absorbing aerosols such as black carbon and desert dust in Asian monsoon regions may also induce dynamical feedback processes, leading to a strengthening of the early monsoon and affecting the subsequent evolution of the monsoon. Many mechanisms have been put forth regarding how aerosols modulate the amplitude, frequency, intensity, and phase of different monsoon climate variables. A wide range of theoretical, observational, and modeling findings on the Asian monsoon, aerosols, and their interactions are synthesized. A new paradigm is proposed on investigating aerosol-monsoon interactions, in which natural aerosols such as desert dust, black carbon from

  5. Spatial and temporal variability of (7)Be and (210)Pb wet deposition during four successive monsoon storms in a catchment of northern Laos.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gourdin, E; Evrard, O; Huon, S; Reyss, J-L; Ribolzi, O; Bariac, T; Sengtaheuanghoung, O; Ayrault, S

    2014-10-01

    Fallout radionuclides (7)Be and (210)Pb have been identified as potentially relevant temporal tracers for studying soil particles dynamics (surface vs. subsurface sources contribution; remobilization of in-channel sediment) during erosive events in river catchments. An increasing number of studies compared (7)Be: (210)Pb activity ratio in rainwater and sediment to estimate percentages of freshly eroded particles. However, the lack of data regarding the spatial and temporal variability of radionuclide wet deposition during individual storms has been identified as one of the main gaps in these estimates. In order to determine these key parameters, rainwater samples were collected at three stations during four storms that occurred at the beginning of the monsoon (June 2013) in the Houay Xon mountainous catchment in northern Laos. Rainwater (7)Be and (210)Pb activities measured using very low background hyperpure Germanium detectors ranged from 0.05 to 1.72 Bq L(-1) and 0.02 to 0.26 Bq L(-1), respectively. Water δ(18)O were determined on the same samples. Total rainfall amount of the four sampled storms ranged from 4.8 to 26.4 mm (51 mm in total) at the time-fractionated collection point. Corresponding cumulative (7)Be and (210)Pb wet depositions during the sampling period were 17.6 and 2.9 Bq m(-2), respectively. The (7)Be: (210)Pb activity ratio varied (1) in space from 6 to 9 for daily deposition and (2) in time from 3 to 12 for samples successively collected. Intra-event evolution of rainwater (7)Be and (210)Pb activities as well as δ(18)O highlighted the progressive depletion of local infra-cloud atmosphere radionuclide stock with time (washout), which remains consistent with a Raleigh-type distillation process for water vapour. Intra-storm ratio increasing with time showed the increasing contribution of rainout scavenging. Implications of such variability for soil particle labelling and erosion studies are briefly discussed and recommendations are formulated

  6. Clarifying ambiguity in intraseasonal Southern Hemisphere climate modes during austral winter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthewman, N. Joss; Magnusdottir, Gudrun

    2012-02-01

    The relative importance of annular and nonannular characteristics in the wintertime Southern Hemisphere circulation is investigated using reanalysis data between 1978 and 2010. Weekly averaged data are chosen to capture the typically short time scale of intraseasonal atmospheric variability. In existing studies, the southern annular mode (SAM) has been shown to exhibit significant nonannular behavior in the western Southern Hemisphere during austral winter. Variability in this region is also characterized by wave-like disturbances, and this "overlap" in nonannular behavior between different climate modes has led to a lack of consensus when defining and measuring impact from these wave-like disturbances. A number of approaches are adopted, including empirical orthogonal function analysis, teleconnection correlation analysis, and the application of a vector autoregression model to isolate directions of causality and wave propagation. Austral winter variability is shown to be dominated by nonannular wave-like disturbances, rather than a seesaw pattern between high and middle latitudes. The wave-like disturbances have the largest amplitude in the western Southern Hemisphere, are quasi-stationary, and exhibit eastward propagation of information. This suggests that the dominant pattern of western Southern Hemisphere intraseasonal variability during austral winter, which is commonly associated with the SAM, is, in fact, a wave-like mode of variability.

  7. A Holocene East Asian winter monsoon record at the southern edge of the Gobi Desert and its comparison with a transient simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yu; Morrill, Carrie

    2015-09-01

    The East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) exhibits significant variability on intraseasonal, interannual, and interdecadal time scales and the variability can be extended to Holocene centennial and millennial scales. Previous Holocene EAWM proxy data records, which were mostly located in Central, Eastern and Southern China, did not show a consistent Holocene EAWM history. Therefore, it is difficult to provide insights into mechanisms of the long-term winter monsoon variability on the basis of the records. Eolian sediments at the southern edge of the Gobi Desert, Western China, are sensitive to the EAWM changes and less affected by the East Asian summer monsoon due to an obstruction of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. This paper presents a comparison between a well-dated Holocene EAWM record and coupled climate model simulations, so as to explore physical processes and influencing factors of the Holocene EAWM. Sediment samples from two Holocene eolian sedimentary sections [Huangyanghe (a) and Huangyanghe (b)] were acquired at the southern edge of the Gobi Desert. Chronologies were established based on twenty bulk organic matter AMS 14C ages and five pollen concentrates AMS 14C ages. Proxy data, including grain-size, total organic carbon, magnetic susceptibility and carbonate content were obtained from the two eolian sections. The grain-size standard deviation model was applied to determine components sensitive to variability of the Holocene EAWM. After a comparison of environmentally-sensitive grain-size components and proxy data, the 20-200 μm component at the Huangyanghe (a) and the 20-159 μm component at the Huangyanghe (b) section were selected as indicators of the Holocene EAWM, which show a strong early Holocene winter monsoon and a decline of the winter monsoon since the mid-Holocene. We also present equilibrium and transient simulations of the climate evolution for the Holocene using a state-of-art coupled climate model: the Community Climate System Model version 3

  8. Variability of wind stress and currents at selected locations over the north Indian Ocean during 1977 and 1979 summer monsoon seasons

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Gopalakrishna, V.V.; Sadhuram, Y.; RameshBabu, V.; Rao, M.V.

    and low intensities during active/pre-onset and break phases respectively. The wind stress curl is found to be more negative and stronger in the Arabian Sea in active phase whereas it is closer to zero during break monsoon conditions in the Bay of Bengal...

  9. SUNYA Regional Climate Model Simulations of East Asia Summer Monsoon: Effects of Cloud Vertical Structure on the Surface Energy Balance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei Gong and Wei-Chyung Wang

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available We used the State University of New York at Albany (SUNYA regional climate model to study the effect of cloud vertical distribution in affecting the surface energy balance of the East Asia summer monsoon (EASM. Simulations were conducted for the summers of 1988 and 1989, during which large contrast in the intra-seasonal cloud radiative forcing (CRF was observed at the top of the atmosphere. The model results indicate that both the high and low clouds are persistent throughout the summer months in both years. Because of large cloud water, low clouds significantly reduce the solar radiation flux reaching the surface, which nevertheless still dominate the surface energy balance, accounting for more than 50% of the surface heating. The low clouds also contribute significantly the downward longwave radiation to the surface with values strongly dependent on the cloud base temperature. The presence of low clouds effectively decreases the temperature and moisture gradients near surface, resulting in a substantial decrease in the sensible and latent heat fluxes from surface, which partially compensate the decrease of the net radiative cooling of the surface. For example, in the two days, May 8 and July 11 of 1988, the total cloud cover of 80% is simulated, but the respective low cloud cover (water was 63% (114 gm-2 and 22% (21 gm-2. As a result, the downward solar radiation is smaller by 161 Wm-2 in May 8. On the other hand, the cloud temperature was _ lower, yielding 56 Wm-2 smaller downward longwave radiation. The near surface temperature and gradient is more than _ smaller (and moisture gradient, leading to 21 and 81 Wm-2 smaller sensible heat and latent heat fluxes. It is also demonstrated that the model is capable to reproduce the intraseasonal variation of shortwave CRF, and catches the relationship between total cloud cover and SW CRF. The model results show the dominance of high cloud on the regional mean longwave CRF and low cloud on the intra-seasonal

  10. SUNYA Regional Climate Model Simulations of East Asia Summer Monsoon: Effects of Cloud Vertical Structure on the Surface Energy Balance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei Gong Wei-Chyung Wang

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available We used the State University of New York at Albany (SUNYA regional climate model to study the effect of cloud vertical distribution in affecting the surface energy balance of the East Asia summer monsoon (EASM. Simulations were conducted for the summers of 1988 and 1989, during which large contrast in the intra-seasonal cloud radiative forcing (CRF was observed at the top of the atmosphere.

  11. Probing orographic controls in the Himalayas during the monsoon using satellite imagery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. P. Barros

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available The linkages between the space-time variability of observed clouds, rainfall, large-circulation patterns and topography in northern India and the Himalayas were investigated using remote sensing data. The research purpose was to test the hypothesis that cloudiness patterns are dynamic tracers of rainstorms, and therefore their temporal and spatial evolution can be used as a proxy of the spatial and temporal organization of precipitation and precipitation processes in the Himalayan range during the monsoon. The results suggest that the space-time distribution of precipitation, the spatial variability of the diurnal cycle of convective activity, and the terrain (landform and altitudinal gradients are intertwined at spatial scales ranging from the order of a few kms (1–5km up to the continental-scale. Furthermore, this relationship is equally strong in the time domain with respect to the onset and intra-seasonal variability of the monsoon. Infrared and microwave imagery of cloud fields were analyzed to characterize the spatial and temporal evolution of mesoscale convective weather systems and short-lived convection in Northern India, the Himalayan range, and in the Tibetan Plateau during three monsoon seasons (1999, 2000 and 2001. The life cycle of convective systems suggests landform and orographic controls consistent with a convergence zone constrained to the valley of the Ganges and the Himalayan range, bounded in the west by the Aravalli range and the Garhwal mountains and in the East by the Khasi Hills and the Bay of Bengal, which we call the Northern India Convergence Zone (NICZ. The NICZ exhibits strong night-time activity along the south-facing slopes of the Himalayan range, which is characterized by the development of short-lived convection (1–3h aligned with protruding ridges between 1:00 and 3:00 AM. The intra-annual and inter-annual variability of convective activity in the NICZ were assessed with respect to large-scale synoptic

  12. Observations of the temporal variability in aerosol properties and their relationships to meteorology in the summer monsoonal South China Sea/East Sea: the role of monsoonal flows, the Madden–Julian Oscillation, tropical cyclones, squall lines and cold pools

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. S. Reid

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available In a joint NRL/Manila Observatory mission, as part of the 7 SouthEast Asian Studies program (7SEAS, a two-week, late September~2011 research cruise in the northern Palawan Archipelago was undertaken to observe the nature of southwest monsoonal aerosol particles in the South China Sea/East Sea (SCS/ES and Sulu Sea region. Previous analyses suggested this region as a~receptor for biomass burning from Borneo and Sumatra for boundary layer air entering the monsoonal trough. Anthropogenic pollution and biofuel emissions are also ubiquitous, as is heavy shipping traffic. Here, we provide an overview of the regional environment during the cruise, a time series of key aerosol and meteorological parameters, and their interrelationships. Overall, this cruise provides a~narrative of the processes that control regional aerosol loadings and their possible feedbacks with clouds and precipitation. While 2011 was a moderate El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO La Nina year, higher burning activity and lower precipitation was more typical of neutral conditions. The large-scale aerosol environment was modulated by the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO and its associated tropical cyclone (TC activity in a manner consistent with the conceptual analysis performed by Reid et al. (2012. Advancement of the MJO from phase 3 to 6 with accompanying cyclogenesis during the cruise period strengthened flow patterns in the SCS/ES that modulated aerosol lifecycle. TC inflow arms of significant convection sometimes span from Sumatra to Luzon, resulting in very low particle concentrations (minimum condensation nuclei CN −3, non-sea salt PM2.5=1μg m−3. However, elevated carbon monoxide levels were occasionally observed suggesting passage of polluted air masses whose aerosol particles had been rained out. Conversely, two drier periods occurred with higher aerosol particle concentrations originating from Borneo and Southern Sumatra (CN > 3000 cm−3 and non-sea salt PM2.510–25

  13. Observations of the temporal variability in aerosol properties and their relationships to meteorology in the summer monsoonal South China Sea/East Sea: the role of monsoonal flows, the Madden-Julian Oscillation, tropical cyclones, squall lines and cold pools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reid, J. S.; Lagrosas, N. D.; Jonsson, H. H.; Reid, E. A.; Sessions, W. R.; Simpas, J. B.; Uy, S. N.; Boyd, T. J.; Atwood, S. A.; Blake, D. R.; Campbell, J. R.; Cliff, S. S.; Holben, B. N.; Holz, R. E.; Hyer, E. J.; Lynch, P.; Meinardi, S.; Posselt, D. J.; Richardson, K. A.; Salinas, S. V.; Smirnov, A.; Wang, Q.; Yu, L. E.; Zhang, J.

    2014-08-01

    In a joint NRL/Manila Observatory mission, as part of the 7 SouthEast Asian Studies program (7SEAS), a two-week, late September~2011 research cruise in the northern Palawan Archipelago was undertaken to observe the nature of southwest monsoonal aerosol particles in the South China Sea/East Sea (SCS/ES) and Sulu Sea region. Previous analyses suggested this region as a~receptor for biomass burning from Borneo and Sumatra for boundary layer air entering the monsoonal trough. Anthropogenic pollution and biofuel emissions are also ubiquitous, as is heavy shipping traffic. Here, we provide an overview of the regional environment during the cruise, a time series of key aerosol and meteorological parameters, and their interrelationships. Overall, this cruise provides a~narrative of the processes that control regional aerosol loadings and their possible feedbacks with clouds and precipitation. While 2011 was a moderate El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) La Nina year, higher burning activity and lower precipitation was more typical of neutral conditions. The large-scale aerosol environment was modulated by the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and its associated tropical cyclone (TC) activity in a manner consistent with the conceptual analysis performed by Reid et al. (2012). Advancement of the MJO from phase 3 to 6 with accompanying cyclogenesis during the cruise period strengthened flow patterns in the SCS/ES that modulated aerosol lifecycle. TC inflow arms of significant convection sometimes span from Sumatra to Luzon, resulting in very low particle concentrations (minimum condensation nuclei CN elevated carbon monoxide levels were occasionally observed suggesting passage of polluted air masses whose aerosol particles had been rained out. Conversely, two drier periods occurred with higher aerosol particle concentrations originating from Borneo and Southern Sumatra (CN > 3000 cm-3 and non-sea salt PM2.510-25 μg m-3). These cases corresponded with two different mechanisms

  14. Late Miocene-Pliocene Asian monsoon intensification linked to Antarctic ice-sheet growth

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ao, H.; Roberts, A.P.; Dekkers, M.J.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/073463744; Liu, X.; Rohling, E.J.; Shi, Z.; An, Z.; Zhao, X.

    2016-01-01

    Environmental conditions in one of Earth's most densely populated regions, East Asia, are dominated by the monsoon. While Quaternary monsoon variability is reasonably well understood, pre-Quaternary monsoon variability and dynamics remain enigmatic. In particular, little is known about potential rel

  15. Aerosol and monsoon climate interactions over Asia: AEROSOL AND MONSOON CLIMATE INTERACTIONS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Li, Zhanqing [State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology and College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing China; Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science and ESSIC, University of Maryland, College Park Maryland USA; Lau, W. K. -M. [Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science and ESSIC, University of Maryland, College Park Maryland USA; Ramanathan, V. [Department of Atmospheric and Climate Sciences, University of California, San Diego California USA; Wu, G. [Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing China; Ding, Y. [National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing China; Manoj, M. G. [Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science and ESSIC, University of Maryland, College Park Maryland USA; Liu, J. [Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science and ESSIC, University of Maryland, College Park Maryland USA; Qian, Y. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Li, J. [State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology and College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing China; Zhou, T. [Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing China; Fan, J. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Rosenfeld, D. [Institute of Earth Sciences, Hebrew University, Jerusalem Israel; Ming, Y. [Geophysical Fluid Dynamic Laboratory, NOAA, Princeton New Jersey USA; Wang, Y. [Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena California USA; Huang, J. [College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou China; Wang, B. [Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Hawaii, Honolulu Hawaii USA; School of Atmospheric Physics, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing China; Xu, X. [Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing China; Lee, S. -S. [Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science and ESSIC, University of Maryland, College Park Maryland USA; Cribb, M. [Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science and ESSIC, University of Maryland, College Park Maryland USA; Zhang, F. [State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology and College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing China; Yang, X. [State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology and College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing China; Zhao, C. [State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology and College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing China; Takemura, T. [Research Institute for Applied Mechanics, Kyushu University, Fukuoka Japan; Wang, K. [State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology and College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing China; Xia, X. [Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing China; Yin, Y. [School of Atmospheric Physics, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing China; Zhang, H. [National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing China; Guo, J. [Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing China; Zhai, P. M. [Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing China; Sugimoto, N. [National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba Japan; Babu, S. S. [Space Physics Laboratory, Vikram Sarabhai Space Centre, Thiruvananthapuram India; Brasseur, G. P. [Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg Germany

    2016-11-15

    Asian monsoons and aerosols have been studied extensively which are intertwined in influencing the climate of Asia. This paper provides a comprehensive review of ample studies on Asian aerosol, monsoon and their interactions. The region is the primary source of aerosol emissions of varies species, influenced by distinct weather and climatic regimes. On continental scale, aerosols reduce surface insolation and weaken the land-ocean thermal contrast, thus inhibiting the development of monsoons. Locally, aerosol radiative effects alter the thermodynamic stability and convective potential of the lower atmosphere leading to reduced temperatures, increased atmospheric stability, and weakened wind and atmospheric circulation. The atmospheric thermodynamic state may also be altered by the aerosol serving as cloud condensation nuclei or ice nuclei. Many mechanisms have been put forth regarding how aerosols modulate the amplitude, frequency, intensity, and phase of numerous monsoon climate variables. A wide range of theoretical, observational, and modeling findings on the Asian monsoon, aerosols, and their interactions are synthesized. A new paradigm is proposed on investigating aerosol-monsoon interactions, in which natural aerosols such as desert dust, black carbon from biomass burning, and biogenic aerosols from vegetation are considered integral components of an intrinsic aerosol-monsoon climate system, subject to external forcings of global warming, anthropogenic aerosols, and land use and change. Future research on aerosol-monsoon interactions calls for an integrated approach and international collaborations based on long-term sustained observations, process measurements, and improved models, as well as using observations to constrain model simulations and projections.

  16. Asian Monsoon Failure and Megadrought During the Last Millennium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cook, Edward R.; Anchukaitis, Kevin J.; Buckley, Brendan M.; D'Arrigo, Rosanne D.; Jacoby, Gordon C.; Wright, William E.

    2010-04-01

    The Asian monsoon system affects more than half of humanity worldwide, yet the dynamical processes that govern its complex spatiotemporal variability are not sufficiently understood to model and predict its behavior, due in part to inadequate long-term climate observations. Here we present the Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas (MADA), a seasonally resolved gridded spatial reconstruction of Asian monsoon drought and pluvials over the past millennium, derived from a network of tree-ring chronologies. MADA provides the spatiotemporal details of known historic monsoon failures and reveals the occurrence, severity, and fingerprint of previously unknown monsoon megadroughts and their close linkages to large-scale patterns of tropical Indo-Pacific sea surface temperatures. MADA thus provides a long-term context for recent monsoon variability that is critically needed for climate modeling, prediction, and attribution.

  17. The role of the Indian monsoon onset in the West African monsoon onset: observations and AGCM nudged simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Flaounas, Emmanouil [LATMOS/IPSL, Universite Pierre et Marie Curie, Paris cedex 05 (France); Janicot, Serge [LOCEAN/IPSL, IRD, Universite Pierre et Marie Curie, Paris (France); Bastin, Sophie [LATMOS/IPSL, CNRS, Universite Pierre et Marie Curie, Paris (France); Roca, Remy [LMD/IPSL, CNRS, Universite Pierre et Marie Curie, Paris (France); Mohino, Elsa [LOCEAN/IPSL, CNRS, Universite Pierre et Marie Curie, Paris (France); Universidad de Sevilla, Sevilla (Spain)

    2012-03-15

    In spring the inland penetration of the West African Monsoon (WAM) is weak and the associated rainband is located over the Guinean coast. Then within a few days deep convection weakens considerably and the rainband reappears about 20 days after over the Sahel, where it remains until late September signalling the summer rainy season. Over the period 1989-2008 a teleconnection induced by the Indian monsoon onset is shown to have a significant impact on the WAM onset, by performing composite analyses on both observational data sets and atmospheric general circulation model simulations ensembles where the model is nudged to observations over the Indian monsoon sector. The initiation of convective activity over the Indian subcontinent north of 15 N at the time of the Indian monsoon onset results in a westward propagating Rossby wave establishing over North Africa 7-15 days after. A back-trajectory analysis shows that during this period, dry air originating from the westerly subtropical jet entrance is driven to subside and move southward over West Africa inhibiting convection there. At the same time the low-level pressure field over West Africa reinforces the moisture transport inland. After the passage of the wave, the dry air intrusions weaken drastically. Hence 20 days after the Indian monsoon onset, convection is released over the Sahel where thermodynamic conditions are more favourable. This scenario is very similar in the observations and in the nudged simulations, meaning that the Indian monsoon onset is instrumental in the WAM onset and its predictability at intraseasonal scale. (orig.)

  18. Observed variability of summer precipitation pattern and extreme events in East China associated with variations of the East Asian summer monsoon: VARIABILITY OF SUMMER PRECIPITATION AND EXTREME EVENT IN EAST CHINA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Lei [School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, China; Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA USA; Qian, Yun [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA USA; Zhang, Yaocun [School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, China; Zhao, Chun [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA USA; Leung, L. Ruby [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA USA; Huang, Anning [School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, China; Xiao, Chuliang [Cooperative Institute for Limnology and Ecosystems Research, School of Natural Resources and Environment, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor MI USA

    2015-11-09

    This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of interannual and interdecadal variations of summer precipitation and precipitation-related extreme events in China associated with variations of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) from 1979-2012. A high-quality daily precipitation dataset covering 2287 weather stations in China is analyzed. Based on the precipitation pattern analysis using empirical orthogonal functions, three sub-periods of 1979-1992 (period I), 1993-1999 (period II) and 2000-2012 (period III) are identified to be representative of the precipitation variability. Similar significant variability of the extreme precipitation indices is found across four sub-regions in eastern China. The spatial patterns of summer mean precipitation, the number of days with daily rainfall exceeding 95th percentile precipitation (R95p) and the maximum number of consecutive wet days (CWD) anomalies are consistent, but opposite to that of maximum consecutive dry days (CDD) anomalies during the three sub-periods. However, the spatial patterns of hydroclimatic intensity (HY-INT) are notably different from that of the other three extreme indices, but highly correlated to the dry events. The changes of precipitation anomaly patterns are accompanied by the change of the EASM regime and the abrupt shift of the position of the west Pacific subtropical high around 1992/1993 and 1999/2000, respectively, which influence the moisture transport that contributes most to the precipitation anomalies. Lastly, the EASM intensity is linked to sea surface temperature anomaly over the tropical Indian and Pacific Ocean that influences deep convection over the oceans.

  19. A case study of the intraseasonal oscillation traversing the TOGA-COARE LSD. [large-scale domain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vincent, Dayton G.; Schrage, Jon M.; Sliwinski, L. D.

    1993-01-01

    The paper presents examination of tree intraseasonal (30-60 day) oscillations (ISOs) that occurred during the southern summer season (December 1, 1985 - February 28, 1986) traversing the Large-Scale Domain (LSD) TOGA-COARE, the region which also plays an important role in ENSO, Australian monsoon, and extratropical circulations. Data presented include Hovmoeller diagrams of 5-day running means of 250-mb velocity potential anomalies and OLR anomalies; graphs of five-day running means of OLR in precipitable water (W) per sq m, averaged over 10 x 10 deg boxes centered on 5 S and (1) 145 E, (2) 155 E, (3) 165 E, and (4) 165 D, indicating the midpoint of each ISO; and vertical profiles of zonal wind in m/s averaged over the time period that each ISO spends in the 10 x 10 deg box centered at 5 S, and 175 E and 145 E.

  20. A case study of the intraseasonal oscillation traversing the TOGA-COARE LSD. [large-scale domain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vincent, Dayton G.; Schrage, Jon M.; Sliwinski, L. D.

    1993-01-01

    The paper presents examination of tree intraseasonal (30-60 day) oscillations (ISOs) that occurred during the southern summer season (December 1, 1985 - February 28, 1986) traversing the Large-Scale Domain (LSD) TOGA-COARE, the region which also plays an important role in ENSO, Australian monsoon, and extratropical circulations. Data presented include Hovmoeller diagrams of 5-day running means of 250-mb velocity potential anomalies and OLR anomalies; graphs of five-day running means of OLR in precipitable water (W) per sq m, averaged over 10 x 10 deg boxes centered on 5 S and (1) 145 E, (2) 155 E, (3) 165 E, and (4) 165 D, indicating the midpoint of each ISO; and vertical profiles of zonal wind in m/s averaged over the time period that each ISO spends in the 10 x 10 deg box centered at 5 S, and 175 E and 145 E.

  1. Monsoons, history of

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Niitsuma, N.; Naidu, P.D.

    The evolution of the Asian monsoon started at around 9.5 Ma, in response to the uplift of the Himalayas. The monsoonal intensity reached its maximum at around 5 Ma, and from that time the associated easterly trade winds caused intense upwelling...

  2. The Joint Aerosol-Monsoon Experiment: A New Challenge to Monsoon Climate Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, William K. M.

    2008-01-01

    Aerosol and monsoon related droughts and floods are two of the most serious environmental hazards confronting more than 60% of the population of the world living in the Asian monsoon countries. In recent years, thanks to improved satellite and in-situ observations, and better models, great strides have been made in aerosol, and monsoon research respectively. There is now a growing body of evidence suggesting that interaction of aerosol forcing with water cycle dynamics in monsoon regions may substantially alter the redistribution of energy at the earth surface and in the atmosphere, and therefore significantly impact monsoon rainfall variability and long term trends. In this talk, I will describe issues related to societal needs, scientific background, and challenges in studies of aerosol-water cycle interaction in Asian monsoon regions. As a first step towards addressing these issues, the authors call for an integrated observation and modeling research approach aimed at the interactions between aerosol chemistry and radiative effects and monsoon dynamics of the coupled ocean-atmosphere-land system. A Joint Aerosol-Monsoon Experiment (JAMEX) is proposed for 2007-2011, with an enhanced observation period during 2008-09, encompassing diverse arrays of observations from surface, aircraft, unmanned aerial vehicles, and satellites of physical and chemical properties of aerosols, long range aerosol transport as well as meteorological and oceanographic parameters in the Indo-Pacific Asian monsoon region. JAMEX will leverage on coordination among many ongoing and planned national programs on aerosols and monsoon research in China, India, Japan, Nepal, Italy, US, as well as international research programs of the World Climate Research Program (WCRP) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

  3. Intraseasonal responses of the East Asia summer rainfall to anthropogenic aerosol climate forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Guoxing; Yang, Jing; Bao, Qing; Wang, Wei-Chyung

    2017-04-01

    The WRF Model is used to investigate intraseasonal responses of the summer rainfall to aerosol direct and cloud-adjustment effects over East Asia, where the anthropogenic aerosol loading has been increasing in the past few decades. The responses are evaluated by comparing two cases for each year during 2002-2008: a control case imposing the observed aerosol optical depth of the corresponding year and a sensitivity case having anthropogenic components of the control case reduced by 75%. Analyses of multiple-year simulations reveal that aerosol-induced changes of rainfall and circulation exhibit strong intraseasonal variability, and that the spatial pattern of changes in the monthly rainfall is related to the intensification and westward extension of the western North-Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH) by increased aerosols. This perturbation of the WNPSH induces surface air divergence over the southeast China and convergence over regions to the north and west of the WNPSH, causing, respectively, decreased and increased rainfall. As the WNPSH migration path varies year by year, however, the variability of rainfall changes over subregions of the eastern China (e.g., North China) is large within the decade. Meanwhile, the pattern of summer-gross rainfall changes also shows large interannual variation, but the general pattern of wetter in the west and dryer in the east persists. Results also suggest that the aerosol increase tends to reduce the number of Tibet Plateau vortices, which indirectly influence summer rainfall over the eastern China.

  4. The 1985/86 Intraseasonal Oscillation and the Role of the Extratropics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsu, Huang-Hsiung; Hoskins, Brian J.; Jin, Fei-Fei

    1990-04-01

    An intraseasonal oscillation that occurred in the 1985/86 northern winter is documented in this study. The tropical convection of this event is dominated by the mixture of a standing oscillation over the maritime continent and an eastward moving feature from the Indian Ocean into the central Pacific. The time evolution of the upper tropospheric circulation patterns, instead of propagating eastward along the equator as suggested in the existing composites of the intraseasonal oscillation, is characterized by a series of wave patterns in the Northern Hemisphere and does not complete the cycle around the globe.The familiar moist Kelvin wave explanation for the intraseasonal oscillation receives little support from diagnosis of this event using zonal wind, height field, streamfunction, and potential vorticity. Only in the lower troposphere near the date line is the convincing evidence for its existence found.A scenario for the intraseasonal oscillation, which is suggested by the analysis, includes the initiation of the event through organization of tropical convection in the Indian Ocean by a subtropical Rossby wave train. This wave train also triggers a modal meridional dipole response in the west Pacific. The eastern Asia and western Pacific portion of this wave pattern is further reinforced by downstream propagation from the Indian Ocean convection region. The wave train creates the conditions in which synoptic cold surge events can occur over China. The propagation of these surges into the Indonesian region leads to markedly increased convection there. This process may be aided by the conditions created by a tongue of high potential vorticity that is advected equatorward and westward towards the Indonesian region by the flow associated with the dipole. The Indonesian convection gives rise to a North Pacific wave pattern and increased upper tropospheric, equatorial westerlies in the eastern Pacific.Aspects of this scenario are supported with previous theoretical

  5. Intraseasonal meridional current variability in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Ogata, T.; Sasaki, H.; Murty, V.S.N.; Sarma, M.S.S.; Masumoto, Y.

    for the atmospheric disturbances at this time-scale over the eastern Indian Ocean, which can be considered as the forcing to the oceanic ISV, such as those indicated by Chatterji and Goswami [2004], Shinoda and Han [2005], and Fukutomi and Yasunari [2005]. An air...–2482. Fukutomi, Y., and T. Yasunari (2005), Southerly surges on the submonthly timescales over the eastern Indian Ocean during the Southern Hemisphere winter, Mon. Weather Rev., 133(6), 1637–1654. Han, W., D. Yuan, W. T. Liu, and D. J. Halkides (2007...

  6. Coupled marine productivity and salinity and West African monsoon variability over the last 30,000 years in the eastern equatorial Atlantic Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marret, F.; Kim, S.-Y.; Scourse, J.; Kennedy, H.

    2009-04-01

    Marine cores collected off west equatorial Africa have highlighted transfer of terrigenous material in the close ocean that have had a deep influence on the marine productivity for the last 30,000 years. The strength of the West African Monsoon has varied though time, from weak during glacial periods to strong during interglacials. In consequence, the amount of precipitation on the continent had drastic effect on the vegetation cover and soil erosion. Studies of marine cores have enabled the observation of changes in vegetation cover, from extended equatorial rainforest to expansion of savannahs. In association with open grassland association, soil is open to erosion, although precipitation is less; conversely, during periods of extended rainforest in a context of strong monsoon, soil erosion is minimised to the presence of trees. In both cases, terrigenous material is flushed out to the adjacent marine domain and has a profound influence on the marine biota. Three marine cores were studied from a north south transect, from Cameroon to Angola (off Sanaga, off Ogouée, and off Congo rivers), for their palynomorph contents. All cores contain a robust chronology based on radiocarbon dates and two have stable isotope data, allowing comparison. Dinoflagellate cysts were studied for retracing sea-surface conditions such as temperature, salinity and productivity whereas pollen were used to assess changes in the vegetation on the close continent for the last 30,000 years (1). A number of pollen records from terrestrial sequences from equatorial central Africa document the dynamics of the lowland rainforest and savannah in relation to climatic changes during the Holocene. Prior to the Holocene, continental records are scarce in this vast region and/or only allow reconstruction of the local vegetation. In our records, terrestrial proxies (pollen, spores, and charred grass cuticles) signal changes in the expansion/regression of the lowland rainforest which we relate to the

  7. Comparative Hydrology Over Monsoonal Regions Using Seasonal Distributions of Stable Water Isotopes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, D. P.; Worden, J.; Noone, D. C.

    2007-12-01

    model that uses the isotopic ratios as constraints, we provide a unique view of the seasonal contributions of moisture via an evaporative source versus the losses due to condensation. Our results show that during the monsoonal seasons of the regions studied, additional isotopic exchange during intense condensation or through rainfall evaporation can explain the substantial isotopic depletion that deviates from the Rayleigh distillation model. Secondly, we show that local convection introduces intra-seasonal variability in the regional isotopic ratios, which shows local sources of moisture are significant for each region. Thirdly, the isotopic composition reveals substantial subsidence for the dry seasons of the Asian monsoon and N. Australian regions, indicating a seasonal source of dry air. Our results reveal that the regional ratios of moisture gain from an evaporative source versus the moisture loss from condensation vary from close to zero for the wettest months to unity for the dry seasons. These results show that the isotopic ratios of water vapor can further the understanding of the physics of regional hydrology near monsoonal areas.

  8. Spatio-temporal variability in sea surface wind stress near and off the east coast of Korea

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    NAM SungHyun; KIM Young Ho; PARK Kyung-Ae; KIM Kuh

    2005-01-01

    Sea surface wind stress variabilities near and off the east coast of Korea, are examined using 7 kinds of wind datasets from measurements at 2 coastal (land) stations and 2 ocean buoys,satellite scatterometer (QuikSCAT), and global reanalyzed products (ECMWF,NOGAPS,and NCEP/NCAR). Temporal variabilities are analyzed at 3 frequency bands; synoptic (2~20 d), intra-seasonal (20~90 d),and seasonal (>90 d).Synoptic and intra-seasonal variations are predominant near and off the Donghae City due to the passage of the mesoscale weather system. Seasonal variation is caused by southeastward wind stress during Asian winter monsoon. The sea surface wind stress from reanalyzed datasets,QuikSCAT and KMA-B measurements off the coast show good agreement in the magnitude and direction,which are strongly aligned with the alongshore direction. At the land-based sites,wind stresses are much weaker by factors of 3~10 due to the mountainous landmass on the east parts of Korea Peninsula. The first EOF modes(67 % ~70%) of wind stresses from reanalyzed and QuikSCAT data have similar structures of the strong southeastward wind stress in winter along the coast but show different curl structures at scales less than 200 kn due to the orographic effects. The second EOF modes (23 % ~25%)show southwestward wind stress in every September along the east coast of the North Korea

  9. Measuring the monsoon

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Ramaswamy, V.; Nair, R.R.

    of the monsoons, there are also fluctuations arising from human activities. Most scientists believe that large-scale deforestation and burning of fossil fuels will alter global climatic patterns significantly. For the sake of those people whose lives...

  10. Identifying the northernmost summer monsoon location in East Asia

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Hu Haoran; Qian Weihong

    2007-01-01

    An integrated index which can be used to indicate the advance of subtropical summer monsoon in East Asia has been proposed in this paper. The index was combined by three variables including precipitation, wind and pseudo-equivalent potential temperature. The northernmost summer monsoon location (NSML) was identified by using this index annually. It was found that the NSML experienced an interdecadal shift in the period 1977-1979 based on the annual index analysis from 1961 to 2001. A comparison of the NSML with other four summer monsoon indices has also been made. The result showed that the NSML could well represent the interannual and interdecadal variability of summer monsoon precipitation in North China (beyond 35°N), while other four indices could well indicate the precipitation anomalies of East Asian summer monsoon along the Yangtze River valley (around 30°N).

  11. GENERAL SITUATION ABOUT ACTIVITY OF SUMMER MONSOON OVER SOUTH CHINA SEA IN 2004 ASIAN SUMMER MONSOON INDEX

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI Chun-hui; LIANG Jian-yin

    2006-01-01

    Based on daily NCEP reanalysis data, OLR and satellite rainfall data, the characteristic of the activities of South China Sea summer monsoon(SCSSM) in 2004 were analyzed. The results showed that the establishment of SCSSM was little later than normal and the intensity was stronger than normal. Influenced by the location of the northwest Pacific subtropical high, which was much northward and westward than normal,SCSSM was active mainly in the South China Sea areas. There existed obvious intraseasonal oscillation and two significant periods of SCSSM, one was about 20-30 days and the other about 40-50 days. The transportation of moisture was concentrated on the South China Sea and the northwest Pacific regions, reducing the northward transportation and resulting in drought in southern China.

  12. Reappraisal of Asian Summer Monsoon Indices and the Long-Term Variation of Monsoon

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    The Webster and Yang monsoon index (WYI)-the zonal wind shear between 850 and 200 hPa was calculated and modified on the basis of NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. After analyzing the circulation and divergence fields of 150-100 and 200 hPa, however, we found that the 200-hPa level could not reflect the real change of the upper-tropospheric circulation of Asian summer monsoon, especially the characteristics and variation of the tropical easterly jet which is the most important feature of the upper-tropospheric circulation. The zonal wind shear U850-U(150+100) is much larger than U850-U200, and thus it can reflect the strength of monsoon more appropriately. In addition, divergence is the largest at 150 hPa rather than 200 hPa, so 150 hPa in the upper-troposphere can reflect the coupling of the monsoon system. Therefore,WYI is redefined as DHI, i.e., IDH=U*850 - U*(150+100), which is able to characterize the variability of not only the intensity of the center of zonal wind shear in Asia, but also the monsoon system in the upper and lower troposphere. DHI is superior to WYI in featuring the long-term variation of Asian summer monsoon as it indicates there is obvious interdecadal variation in the Asian summer monsoon and the climate abrupt change occurred in 1980. The Asian summer monsoon was stronger before 1980 and it weakened after then due to the weakening of the easterly in the layer of 150-100 hPa, while easterly at 200 hPa did not weaken significantly. After the climate jump year in general, easterly in the upper troposphere weakened in Asia, indicating the weakening of summer monsoon; the land-sea pressure difference and thermal difference reduced, resulting in the weakening of monsoon; the corresponding upper divergence as well as the water vapor transport decreased in Indian Peninsula, central Indo-China Peninsula, North China, and Northeast China, indicating the weakening of summer monsoon as well. The difference between NCEP/NCAR and ERA-40 reanalysis data in

  13. Reply to 'Influence of cosmic ray variability on the monsoon rainfall and temperature': a false-positive in the field of solar-terrestrial research

    CERN Document Server

    Laken, Benjamin A

    2015-01-01

    A litany of research has been published claiming strong solar influences on the Earth's weather and climate. Much of this work includes documented errors and false-positives, yet is still frequently used to substantiate arguments of global warming denial. This manuscript reports on a recent study by Badruddin & Aslam (2014), hereafter BA14, which claimed a highly significant ($p=1.4\\times10^{-5}$) relationship between extremes in the intensity of the Indian monsoon and the cosmic ray flux. They further speculated that the relationship they observed may apply across the entire tropical and sub-tropical belt, and be of global importance. However, their statistical analysis---and consequently their conclusions---were wrong. Specifically, their error resulted from an assumption that their data's underlying distribution was Gaussian. But, as demonstrated in this work, their data closely follow an ergodic chaotic distribution biased towards extreme values. From a probability density function, calculated using a...

  14. Extended Range Prediction of Indian Summer Monsoon: Current status

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahai, A. K.; Abhilash, S.; Borah, N.; Joseph, S.; Chattopadhyay, R.; S, S.; Rajeevan, M.; Mandal, R.; Dey, A.

    2014-12-01

    The main focus of this study is to develop forecast consensus in the extended range prediction (ERP) of monsoon Intraseasonal oscillations using a suit of different variants of Climate Forecast system (CFS) model. In this CFS based Grand MME prediction system (CGMME), the ensemble members are generated by perturbing the initial condition and using different configurations of CFSv2. This is to address the role of different physical mechanisms known to have control on the error growth in the ERP in the 15-20 day time scale. The final formulation of CGMME is based on 21 ensembles of the standalone Global Forecast System (GFS) forced with bias corrected forecasted SST from CFS, 11 low resolution CFST126 and 11 high resolution CFST382. Thus, we develop the multi-model consensus forecast for the ERP of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) using a suite of different variants of CFS model. This coordinated international effort lead towards the development of specific tailor made regional forecast products over Indian region. Skill of deterministic and probabilistic categorical rainfall forecast as well the verification of large-scale low frequency monsoon intraseasonal oscillations has been carried out using hindcast from 2001-2012 during the monsoon season in which all models are initialized at every five days starting from 16May to 28 September. The skill of deterministic forecast from CGMME is better than the best participating single model ensemble configuration (SME). The CGMME approach is believed to quantify the uncertainty in both initial conditions and model formulation. Main improvement is attained in probabilistic forecast which is because of an increase in the ensemble spread, thereby reducing the error due to over-confident ensembles in a single model configuration. For probabilistic forecast, three tercile ranges are determined by ranking method based on the percentage of ensemble members from all the participating models falls in those three categories. CGMME further

  15. Investigation of dominant modes of monsoon ISO in the northwest and eastern Himalayan region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mukherjee, Sandipan; Ballav, Srabanti; Soni, Sandeep; Kumar, Kireet; Kumar De, Utpal

    2016-08-01

    This study investigates the altitudinal variation of dominant modes of summer monsoon intra-seasonal oscillation (ISO) over the Northwest (NWH) and Eastern Himalayan (EH) region using (i) spatially scattered 133 number of station rainfall observations and (ii) latitudinal transect-wise (LT) rainfall variation, obtained from an observed interpolated gridded rainfall data for the period 1995-2004. The altitudinal variation of dominant modes of monsoon ISO were investigated by exploring the strong and weak phases of the principal components of 10-90 days bandpass rainfall data of June to September with respect to location specific station height. Investigation of frequency of days for light and moderate rainfall along with the occurrence of total seasonal rainy days has revealed existence of a rainfall maximum around 2100 m height for the NWH region. Similarly, the total seasonal rainy days of EH region was found to have maxima between 1100 and 1400 m height. Analyses of the spatially scattered station rainfall observation for the NWH region showed that the strong periods of ISO modes exist around 747.9 (±131.7) m and 2227.2 (±100.2) m heights. Over the EH region, the dominant modes of the monsoon ISO were found to be centred around 1200 m. Significant alterations of strong and weak phases of monsoon ISO as a response to altitudinal variation in the mountain surface were observed when latitudinal transect-wise variation of monsoon ISO modes were investigated.

  16. Eastward propagating MJO during boreal summer and Indian monsoon droughts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Joseph, Susmitha; Sahai, A.K.; Goswami, B.N. [Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Climate and Global Modeling Division, Pune (India)

    2009-06-15

    Improved understanding of underlying mechanism responsible for Indian summer monsoon (ISM) droughts is important due to their profound socio-economic impact over the region. While some droughts are associated with 'external forcing' such as the El-Nino and Southern Oscillation (ENSO), many ISM droughts are not related to any known 'external forcing'. Here, we unravel a fundamental dynamic process responsible for droughts arising not only from external forcing but also those associated with internal dynamics. We show that most ISM droughts are associated with at least one very long break (VLB; breaks with duration of more than 10 days) and that the processes responsible for VLBs may also be the mechanism responsible for ISM droughts. Our analysis also reveals that all extended monsoon breaks (whether co-occurred with El-Nino or not) are associated with an eastward propagating Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) in the equatorial Indian Ocean and western Pacific extending to the dateline and westward propagating Rossby waves between 10 and 25 N. The divergent Rossby wave associated with the dry phase of equatorial convection propagates westward towards Indian land, couple with the northward propagating dry phase and leads to the sustenance of breaks. Thus, the propensity of eastward propagating MJO during boreal summer is largely the cause of monsoon droughts. While short breaks are not accompanied by westerly wind events (WWE) over equatorial western Pacific favorable for initiating air-sea interaction, all VLBs are accompanied by sustained WWE. The WWEs associated with all VLB during 1975-2005 initiate air-sea interaction on intraseasonal time scale, extend the warm pool eastward allowing the convectively coupled MJO to propagate further eastward and thereby sustaining the divergent circulation over India and the monsoon break. The ocean-atmosphere coupling on interannual time scale (such as El-Nino) can also produce VLB, but not necessary. (orig.)

  17. Eastward propagating MJO during boreal summer and Indian monsoon droughts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joseph, Susmitha; Sahai, A. K.; Goswami, B. N.

    2009-06-01

    Improved understanding of underlying mechanism responsible for Indian summer monsoon (ISM) droughts is important due to their profound socio-economic impact over the region. While some droughts are associated with ‘external forcing’ such as the El-Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO), many ISM droughts are not related to any known ‘external forcing’. Here, we unravel a fundamental dynamic process responsible for droughts arising not only from external forcing but also those associated with internal dynamics. We show that most ISM droughts are associated with at least one very long break (VLB; breaks with duration of more than 10 days) and that the processes responsible for VLBs may also be the mechanism responsible for ISM droughts. Our analysis also reveals that all extended monsoon breaks (whether co-occurred with El-Niño or not) are associated with an eastward propagating Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) in the equatorial Indian Ocean and western Pacific extending to the dateline and westward propagating Rossby waves between 10° and 25°N. The divergent Rossby wave associated with the dry phase of equatorial convection propagates westward towards Indian land, couple with the northward propagating dry phase and leads to the sustenance of breaks. Thus, the propensity of eastward propagating MJO during boreal summer is largely the cause of monsoon droughts. While short breaks are not accompanied by westerly wind events (WWE) over equatorial western Pacific favorable for initiating air-sea interaction, all VLBs are accompanied by sustained WWE. The WWEs associated with all VLB during 1975-2005 initiate air-sea interaction on intraseasonal time scale, extend the warm pool eastward allowing the convectively coupled MJO to propagate further eastward and thereby sustaining the divergent circulation over India and the monsoon break. The ocean-atmosphere coupling on interannual time scale (such as El-Niño) can also produce VLB, but not necessary.

  18. A Review of the Nonlinear Dynamics of Intraseasonal Oscillations

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHAO Qiang; CHEN Jian-Zhou

    2011-01-01

    In recent years, significant progress has been made regarding theories of intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs) (also known as the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) in the tropics). This short review introduces the latest advances in ISO theories with an emphasis particularly on theoretical paradigms involving nonlinear dynamics in the following aspects: (1) the basic ideas and limitations of the previous and current theories and hypotheses regarding the MJO, (2) the new multi-scale theory of the MJO based on the intraseasonal planetary equatorial synoptic dynamics (IPESD) framework, and (3) nonlinear dynamics of ISOs in the extratropics based on the resonant triads of Rossby-Haurwitz waves.

  19. Past dynamics of the Australian monsoon: precession, phase and links to the global monsoon concept

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beaufort, L.; van der Kaars, S.; Bassinot, F. C.; Moron, V.

    2010-10-01

    Past variations in the dynamics of the Australian monsoon have been estimated from multi-proxy analysis of a core retrieved in the Eastern Banda Sea. Records of coccolith and pollen assemblages, spanning the last 150 000 years, allow reconstruction of past primary production in the Banda Sea, summer moisture availability, and the length of the dry season in northern Australia and southeastern Indonesia. The amount of moisture available during the summer monsoon follows typical glacial/interglacial dynamics with a broad asymmetrical 100-kyr cycle. Primary production and length of the dry season appear to be closely related, given that they follow the precessional cycle with the same phase. This indicates their independence from ice-volume variations. The present inter-annual variability of both parameters is related to El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which modulates the Australian Winter Monsoon (AWM). The precessional pattern observed in the past dynamics of the AWM is found in ENSO and monsoon records of other regions. A marked shift in the monsoon intensity occurring during the mid Holocene during a period of constant ice volume, suggests that low latitude climatic variation precedes increases in global ice volume. This precessional pattern suggests that a common forcing mechanism underlies low latitude climate dynamics, acting specifically and synchronously on the different monsoon systems.

  20. Past dynamics of the Australian monsoon: precession, phase and links to the global monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beaufort, L.; van der Kaars, S.; Bassinot, F. C.; Moron, V.

    2010-06-01

    Past variations in the dynamics of the Australian monsoon have been estimated from multi-proxy analysis of a core retrieved in the Eastern Banda Sea. Records of coccolith and pollen assemblages, spanning the last 150,000 years, allow reconstruction of past primary production in the Banda Sea, summer moisture availability, and the length of the dry season in Northern Australia and Southeastern Indonesia. The amount of moisture available during the summer monsoon follows typical glacial/interglacial dynamics with a broad asymmetrical 100-kyr cycle. Primary production and length of the dry season appear to be closely related, given that they follow the precessional cycle with the same phase (August insolation). This indicates their independence from ice-volume variations. The present inter-annual variability of both parameters is related to El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which modulates the Australian Winter Monsoon (AWM). The precessional pattern observed in the past dynamics of the AWM is found in ENSO and monsoon records of other regions. A marked shift in the monsoon intensity occurring during the mid Holocene during a period of constant ice volume, suggest that low latitude climatic variation precedes global ice volume. This precessional pattern suggests that a common forcing mechanism underlies low latitude climate dynamics, acting specifically and synchronically on the different monsoon systems.

  1. SST INTRASEASONAL OSCILLATION AND ATMOSPHERIC FORCING SYSTEM OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2000-01-01

    This study used National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis data to confirm that the variance of sea surface temperature (SST) in the South China Sea (SCS) has pronounced intraseasonal oscillations characterized by quasi-standing waves; and was aimed to document how intraseasonal time scale SST formed and developed in the SCS. The results derived from the composite analysis indicated the existence of a local low-level atmospheric dynamic forcing system over the SCS. The main formation mechanism of SST intraseasonal oscillation is the low-level rotational atmospheric circulation forcing over the SCS on intraseasonal time scales and the solar radiation variations caused by cloud amount changes.

  2. Nowcasting Intraseasonal Recreational Fishing Harvest with Internet Search Volume.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carter, David W; Crosson, Scott; Liese, Christopher

    2015-01-01

    Estimates of recreational fishing harvest are often unavailable until after a fishing season has ended. This lag in information complicates efforts to stay within the quota. The simplest way to monitor quota within the season is to use harvest information from the previous year. This works well when fishery conditions are stable, but is inaccurate when fishery conditions are changing. We develop regression-based models to "nowcast" intraseasonal recreational fishing harvest in the presence of changing fishery conditions. Our basic model accounts for seasonality, changes in the fishing season, and important events in the fishery. Our extended model uses Google Trends data on the internet search volume relevant to the fishery of interest. We demonstrate the model with the Gulf of Mexico red snapper fishery where the recreational sector has exceeded the quota nearly every year since 2007. Our results confirm that data for the previous year works well to predict intraseasonal harvest for a year (2012) where fishery conditions are consistent with historic patterns. However, for a year (2013) of unprecedented harvest and management activity our regression model using search volume for the term "red snapper season" generates intraseasonal nowcasts that are 27% more accurate than the basic model without the internet search information and 29% more accurate than the prediction based on the previous year. Reliable nowcasts of intraseasonal harvest could make in-season (or in-year) management feasible and increase the likelihood of staying within quota. Our nowcasting approach using internet search volume might have the potential to improve quota management in other fisheries where conditions change year-to-year.

  3. Nowcasting Intraseasonal Recreational Fishing Harvest with Internet Search Volume.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David W Carter

    Full Text Available Estimates of recreational fishing harvest are often unavailable until after a fishing season has ended. This lag in information complicates efforts to stay within the quota. The simplest way to monitor quota within the season is to use harvest information from the previous year. This works well when fishery conditions are stable, but is inaccurate when fishery conditions are changing. We develop regression-based models to "nowcast" intraseasonal recreational fishing harvest in the presence of changing fishery conditions. Our basic model accounts for seasonality, changes in the fishing season, and important events in the fishery. Our extended model uses Google Trends data on the internet search volume relevant to the fishery of interest. We demonstrate the model with the Gulf of Mexico red snapper fishery where the recreational sector has exceeded the quota nearly every year since 2007. Our results confirm that data for the previous year works well to predict intraseasonal harvest for a year (2012 where fishery conditions are consistent with historic patterns. However, for a year (2013 of unprecedented harvest and management activity our regression model using search volume for the term "red snapper season" generates intraseasonal nowcasts that are 27% more accurate than the basic model without the internet search information and 29% more accurate than the prediction based on the previous year. Reliable nowcasts of intraseasonal harvest could make in-season (or in-year management feasible and increase the likelihood of staying within quota. Our nowcasting approach using internet search volume might have the potential to improve quota management in other fisheries where conditions change year-to-year.

  4. Deep currents in the Gulf of Guinea: along slope propagation of intraseasonal waves

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Guiavarc'h

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available In the Gulf of Guinea, intraseasonal variability is large at the equator and along the coast. Current data on the continental slope near 7.5° S show very energetic biweekly oscillations at 1300 m depth. A high resolution primitive equation numerical model demonstrates that this deep variability is forced by equatorial winds, through the generation of equatorial Yanai waves that propagate eastward and at depth, and then poleward as coastally-trapped waves upon reaching the coast of Africa. Intraseasonal variability is intensified along the coast of the Gulf of Guinea, especially in the 10–20 day period range and at depths between 500 and 1500 m. The kinetic energy distribution is well explained at first order by linear theory. Along the equator, eastward intensification of energy and bottom intensification are in qualitative agreement with vertically propagating Yanai waves, although the signal is influenced by the details of the bathymetry. Along the coast, baroclinic modes 3 to 5 are important close to the equator, and the signal is dominated by lower vertical modes farther south. Additional current meter data on the continental slope near 3° N display an energy profile in the 10–20 day period band that is strikingly different from the one at 7.5° S, with surface intensification rather than bottom intensification and a secondary maximum near 800 m. The model reproduces these features and explains them: the surface intensification in the north is due to the regional wind forcing, and the north-south asymmetry of the deep signal is due to the presence of the zonal African coast near 5° N. A 4 years time series of current measurements at 7.5° S shows that the biweekly oscillations are intermittent and vary from year to year. This intermittency is not well correlated with fluctuations of the equatorial winds and does not seem to be a simple linear response to the wind forcing.

  5. Autoencoder-based identification of predictors of Indian monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saha, Moumita; Mitra, Pabitra; Nanjundiah, Ravi S.

    2016-10-01

    Prediction of Indian summer monsoon uses a number of climatic variables that are historically known to provide a high skill. However, relationships between predictors and predictand could be complex and also change with time. The present work attempts to use a machine learning technique to identify new predictors for forecasting the Indian monsoon. A neural network-based non-linear dimensionality reduction technique, namely, the sparse autoencoder is used for this purpose. It extracts a number of new predictors that have prediction skills higher than the existing ones. Two non-linear ensemble prediction models of regression tree and bagged decision tree are designed with identified monsoon predictors and are shown to be superior in terms of prediction accuracy. Proposed model shows mean absolute error of 4.5 % in predicting the Indian summer monsoon rainfall. Lastly, geographical distribution of the new monsoon predictors and their characteristics are discussed.

  6. 亚洲夏季风的年际和年代际变化及其未来预测%Interdecadal and Interannual Variabilities of the Asian Summer Monsoon and Its Projection of Future Change

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    丁一汇; 孙颖; 刘芸芸; 司东; 王遵娅; 朱玉祥; 柳艳菊; 宋亚芳; 张锦

    2013-01-01

    响,未来的亚洲夏季风活动是人类排放的CO2引起的全球变暖与自然变化(海洋和陆面过程(积雪))共同作用的结果.%The present paper presents a concise summary of our studies on interdecadal and interannual variabilities of the Asian summer monsoon and its projection for recent five years, which can be summarized in the following three aspects: 1) A significant interdecadal weakening of the Asian summer monsoon was identified on the basis of our analysis of a 123-year precipitation dataset in China and studies made by Indian investigators. This variability has caused significant changes in summer precipitation patterns in both East and South Asia. In East Asia, the main monsoon precipitation belt has continuously retreated southward, leading to a precipitation pattern of droughts in North China and floods in South China. The interdecadal change in the preceding winter and spring over the Tibetan Plateau and the sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) of the tropical central and eastern Pacific, in addition to the resulting land-sea thermal contrast, are the main drivers for the weakening of the Asian summer monsoon. In the future, the responses of the South and East Asian summer monsoons to a warmer climate will differ, with a continuous weakening in the former and enhanced circulation and precipitation fields in the latter. 2) The interannual variability is mainly characterized by biennial and four-seven-year oscillations. The present paper focuses on formative processes, mechanisms and influences of tropospheric biennial oscillation (TBO) on precipitation in East Asia. The formation and cycle processes of two particular TBO modes, the Yangtze River Valley (YRV) and the Huaihe River Valley (HRV) modes, have been examined. 3) On the basis of previous studies of teleconnection modes in the Asian monsoon region, we suggest the occurrence of low-level teleconnection types propagating along a strong monsoonal airflow belt from South Asia or

  7. Report on the "Bay of Bengal and Monsoon Experiment (BOBMEX) - NIO component" under the Indian Climate Research Program (ICRP) (DST project file No: ES/48/ICRP/001/99) submitted to Department of Science Technology, New Delhi

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Rao, L.V.G.; RameshBabu, V.; Murty, V.S.N.; DileepKumar, M.

    The objectives of the BOBMEX-Oceanography Component programme is to understand: (1) Variability of upper ocean currents in relation to changing wind and thermohaline forcings, (2) Upper ocean thermodynamic processes on intra-seasonal scale, (3) Air...

  8. The East Asia-Western North Pacific Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation Simulated in GAMIL 1.1.1

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YANG Jing; Bin WANG; WANG Bin; LI Lijuan

    2009-01-01

    We evaluate the performance of GAMIL1.1.1 in a 27-year forced simulation of the summer intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) over East Asia (EA)-western North Pacific (WNP). Thc assessment is based on two mea- sures: climatological ISO (CISO) and transient ISO (TISO). CISO is the ISO component that is phase-locked to the annual cycle and describes seasonal march. TISO is the ISO component that varies year by year. The model reasonably captures many observed features of the ISO, including the stepwise northward advance of the rain belt of CISO, the dominant periodicities of TISO in both the South China Sea-Philippine Sea (SCS-PS) and the Yangtze River Basin (YRB), the northward propagation of 30-50-day TISO and the westward propagation of the 12 25-day TISO mode over the SCS-PS, and the zonal propagating features of three major TISO modes over the YRB. However, the model has notable deficiencies. These include the early onset of the South China Sea monsoon associated with CISO, too fast northward propagation of CISO from 20°N to 40°N and the absence of the CISO signal south of 10°N, the deficient eastward propagation of the 30-50-day TISO mode and the absence of a southward propagation in the YRB TISO modes. Tile authors found that the deficiencies in the ISO simulation are closely related to the model's biases in the mean states, suggesting that the improvement of the model mean state is crucial for realistic simulation of the intraseasonal variation.

  9. The Intra-Seasonal Oscillation and its control of tropical cyclones simulated by high-resolution global atmospheric models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Satoh, M.; Oouchi, K.; Nasuno, T.; Taniguchi, H.; Yamada, Y.; Tomita, H.; Kodama, C.; Kinter, J.; Achuthavarier, D.; Manganello, J.; Cash, B.; Jung, T.; Palmer, T.; Wedi, N.

    2012-11-01

    Project Athena is an international collaboration testing the efficacy of high-resolution global climate models. We compare results from 7-km mesh experiments of the Nonhydrostatic Icosahedral Atmospheric Model (NICAM) and 10-km mesh experiments of the Integrated Forecast System (IFS), focusing on the Intra-Seasonal Oscillation (ISO) and its relationship with tropical cyclones (TC) among the boreal summer period (21 May-31 Aug) of 8 years (2001-2002, 2004-2009). In the first month of simulation, both models capture the intra-seasonal oscillatory behavior of the Indian monsoon similar to the observed boreal summer ISO in approximately half of the 8-year samples. The IFS simulates the NW-SE-oriented rainband and the westerly location better, while NICAM marginally reproduces mesoscale organized convective systems and better simulates the northward migration of the westerly peak and precipitation, particularly in 2006. The reproducibility of the evolution of MJO depends on the given year; IFS simulates the MJO signal well for 2002, while NICAM simulates it well for 2006. An empirical orthogonal function analysis shows that both models statistically reproduce MJO signals similar to observations, with slightly better phase speed reproduced by NICAM. Stronger TCs are simulated in NICAM than in IFS, and NICAM shows a wind-pressure relation for TCs closer to observations. TC cyclogenesis is active during MJO phases 3 and 4 in NICAM as in observations. The results show the potential of high-resolution global atmospheric models in reproducing some aspects of the relationship between MJO and TCs and the statistical behavior of TCs.

  10. The Intra-Seasonal Oscillation and its control of tropical cyclones simulated by high-resolution global atmospheric models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Satoh, M. [The University of Tokyo, Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, Kashiwa-shi, Chiba (Japan); Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Research Institute for Global Change, Yokohama-shi, Kanagawa (Japan); Oouchi, K.; Nasuno, T.; Yamada, Y.; Kodama, C. [Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Research Institute for Global Change, Yokohama-shi, Kanagawa (Japan); Taniguchi, H. [University of Hawaii at Manoa, International Pacific Research Center, SOEST, Honolulu, HI (United States); Tomita, H. [Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Research Institute for Global Change, Yokohama-shi, Kanagawa (Japan); Advanced Institute for Computational Science/RIKEN, Kobe, Hyogo (Japan); Kinter, J.; Achuthavarier, D.; Manganello, J.; Cash, B. [Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, MD (United States); Jung, T. [European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading (United Kingdom); Alfred-Wegener-Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven (Germany); Palmer, T.; Wedi, N. [European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading (United Kingdom)

    2012-11-15

    Project Athena is an international collaboration testing the efficacy of high-resolution global climate models. We compare results from 7-km mesh experiments of the Nonhydrostatic Icosahedral Atmospheric Model (NICAM) and 10-km mesh experiments of the Integrated Forecast System (IFS), focusing on the Intra-Seasonal Oscillation (ISO) and its relationship with tropical cyclones (TC) among the boreal summer period (21 May-31 Aug) of 8 years (2001-2002, 2004-2009). In the first month of simulation, both models capture the intra-seasonal oscillatory behavior of the Indian monsoon similar to the observed boreal summer ISO in approximately half of the 8-year samples. The IFS simulates the NW-SE-oriented rainband and the westerly location better, while NICAM marginally reproduces mesoscale organized convective systems and better simulates the northward migration of the westerly peak and precipitation, particularly in 2006. The reproducibility of the evolution of MJO depends on the given year; IFS simulates the MJO signal well for 2002, while NICAM simulates it well for 2006. An empirical orthogonal function analysis shows that both models statistically reproduce MJO signals similar to observations, with slightly better phase speed reproduced by NICAM. Stronger TCs are simulated in NICAM than in IFS, and NICAM shows a wind-pressure relation for TCs closer to observations. TC cyclogenesis is active during MJO phases 3 and 4 in NICAM as in observations. The results show the potential of high-resolution global atmospheric models in reproducing some aspects of the relationship between MJO and TCs and the statistical behavior of TCs. (orig.)

  11. Intraseasonal Variations in Tropical Deep Convection, Tropospheric Mean Temperature and Cloud-Induced Radiative Fluxes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramey, Holly S.; Robertson, Franklin R.

    2009-01-01

    Intraseasonal variability of deep convection represents a fundamental mode of variability in the organization of tropical convection. While most studies of intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs) have focused on the spatial propagation and dynamics of convectively coupled circulations, we examine the projection of ISOs on the tropically-averaged temperature and energy budget. The area of interest is the global oceans between 20oN/S. Our analysis then focuses on these questions: (i) How is tropospheric temperature related to tropical deep convection and the associated ice cloud fractional amount (ICF) and ice water path (IWP)? (ii) What is the source of moisture sustaining the convection and what role does deep convection play in mediating the PBL - free atmospheric temperature equilibration? (iii) What affect do convectively generated upper-tropospheric clouds have on the TOA radiation budget? Our methodology is similar to that of Spencer et al., (2007) with some modifications and some additional diagnostics of both clouds and boundary layer thermodynamics. A composite ISO time series of cloud, precipitation and radiation quantities built from nearly 40 events during a six-year period is referenced to the atmospheric temperature signal. The increase of convective precipitation cannot be sustained by evaporation within the domain, implying strong moisture transports into the tropical ocean area. While there is a decrease in net TOA radiation that develops after the peak in deep convective rainfall, there seems little evidence that an "Infrared Iris"- like mechanism is dominant. Rather, the cloud-induced OLR increase seems largely produced by weakened convection with warmer cloud tops. Tropical ISO events offer an accessible target for studying ISOs not just in terms of propagation mechanisms, but on their global signals of heat, moisture and radiative flux feedback processes.

  12. Spacebased Observations of the Oceanic Responses to Monsoons in South China Sea and Arabian Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Xiao-Su; Liu, W. Timothy

    2000-01-01

    A large percentage of the world's population and their agrarian economy must endure the vagaries of the monsoons over the tropical oceans between Africa and the Philippines. We know very little about the oceanic responses to changes of the monsoon in the South China Sea (SCS), which is under the influence of the East Asian Monsoon System, and the Arabian Sea (AS), which is dominated by the Indian Monsoon System; oceanic observations are sparse in both regions. Data from spaceborne microwave scatterometers and radiometers have been used to estimate the two major atmospheric forcing, momentum flux and latent heat flux (LHF), which change with the monsoon winds. Spaceborne sensors also observed the surface signatures of the oceanic response: SST and sea level changes (SLC. Sufficient durations of these data have recently become available to allow the meaningful studies of the annual cycles and interannual anomalies. In SCS, the winter monsoon is strong and steady but the summer monsoon is weak and has large intraseasonal fluctuations. In AS, the summer monsoon is much stronger than the winter monsoon. Significant correlations between LHF and SST tendency, and between curl of wind stress and SLC are found in both oceans. In the north SCS, winds are strong and dry, LHF is high, and ocean cooling is also large in fall; LHF is low and the ocean warms up in spring. In AS, LHF and SST tendency have a semi annual period; LHF is high in summer when the wind is strong and in winter when the wind is dry. Along the coast of Oman, the strong summer southwest monsoon causes intense upwelling, low SST and LHF in summer; such wind-driven SST changes is not as obvious along the Vietnam coast because of the weaker summer monsoon. The negative correlation between curl of wind stress and SLC found in the central basins of both SCS and AS agrees with a simple Ekman pumping scenario. Cyclonic winds drive surface divergence and upwelling in the ocean; the rise of the thermocline causes

  13. The Indian summer monsoon as revealed by NCMRWF system

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    P L S Rao; U C Mohanty; P V S Raju; Gopal Iyengar

    2003-03-01

    In this study, we present the mean seasonal features of the Indian summer monsoon circulation in the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) global data assimilation and forecast system. The large-scale budgets of heat and moisture are examined in the analyzed and model atmosphere. The daily operational analyses and forecasts (day 1 through day 5) produced for the summer seasons comprising June, July and August of 1995 and 1993 have been considered for the purpose. The principal aim of the study is two-fold. Primarily, to comprehend the influence of the systematic errors over the Indian summer monsoon, secondarily, to analyze the performance of the model in capturing the interseasonal variability. The heat and moisture balances show reduction in the influx of heat and moisture in the model forecasts compared to the analyzed atmosphere over the monsoon domain. Consequently, the diabatic heating also indicates reducing trend with increase in the forecast period. In effect, the strength of Indian summer monsoon, which essentially depends on these parameters, weakens considerably in the model forecasts. Despite producing feeble monsoon circulation, the model captures interseasonal variability realistically. Although, 1995 and 1993 are fairly normal monsoon seasons, the former received more rainfall compared to the latter in certain pockets of the monsoon domain. This is clearly indicated by the analyzed and model atmosphere in terms of energetics.

  14. Onset of Indian Summer Monsoon: a retrospective analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sruthi, S.; Mrudula, G.

    2016-05-01

    The monsoon onset over Kerala is considered as the beginning of rain fall over India and it is the end of hot summer. Different criteria have been used to define the monsoon onset over Kerala, with the one given by India Meteorological Department taken as the standard criteria. The analysis of the past 20 years of observations shows that the variables during the monsoon onset do not behave in the same way always. The purpose of this paper is to analyses the monsoon onset phases and to find possible reasons behind the variable nature of the monsoon onset. Different meteorological parameters like precipitation, outgoing long wave radiation (OLR), winds, air temperature, and specific humidity at different levels are analyzed for the same. Research has been done on various distinct features of monsoon such as Low Level Jet (LLJ), Tropical Easterly Jet (TEJ), monsoon trough, and depressions etc., during the onset phase. The analysis showed that in some years the strength of LLJ is lesser compared to the normal years. It is also seen that in some years the wind flow pattern is different from that observed during a standard onset year. The results of these analyses will be presented in detail in the paper.

  15. Predictor-Year Subspace Clustering Based Ensemble Prediction of Indian Summer Monsoon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Moumita Saha

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Forecasting the Indian summer monsoon is a challenging task due to its complex and nonlinear behavior. A large number of global climatic variables with varying interaction patterns over years influence monsoon. Various statistical and neural prediction models have been proposed for forecasting monsoon, but many of them fail to capture variability over years. The skill of predictor variables of monsoon also evolves over time. In this article, we propose a joint-clustering of monsoon years and predictors for understanding and predicting the monsoon. This is achieved by subspace clustering algorithm. It groups the years based on prevailing global climatic condition using statistical clustering technique and subsequently for each such group it identifies significant climatic predictor variables which assist in better prediction. Prediction model is designed to frame individual cluster using random forest of regression tree. Prediction of aggregate and regional monsoon is attempted. Mean absolute error of 5.2% is obtained for forecasting aggregate Indian summer monsoon. Errors in predicting the regional monsoons are also comparable in comparison to the high variation of regional precipitation. Proposed joint-clustering based ensemble model is observed to be superior to existing monsoon prediction models and it also surpasses general nonclustering based prediction models.

  16. The records of terrestrial and marine biomarkers in South China Sea EXP349 Sites U1432C and U1433A, B: Implications for East Asian monsoon variability and paleoceanographic variations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    hyun, Sangmin; kim, Songyi

    2016-04-01

    Marine and terrestrial biomarkers, alkenones and n-alkanes compound, were investigated in sediment taken from the South China Sea (SCS) IODP Sites Exp. U1432C, U1433A and U1433B to evaluate Asian monsoon variability and paleoceanographic variations. Alkenone-based sea surface temperature (SSTalk) from the northern Site (U1432C) ranges from approximately 18.2oC to 28.3oC with an average of 24.4oC (n=65). Estimated SSTalk were slightly higher in the southern Site U1433A than at U1432C. SSTalk in Site U1433A ranges from 24.3oC to 27.4oC with an average 26.1oC (n=32), showing as much as 1.7oC higher SSTs than at U1432C. High concentrations of n-alkanes (nC21-35) are present throughout the Site SC1432C with strong fluctuations in the upper part (average = 496ug/g, n=140). The much higher records at U1433A and U1433B show long-range variations, but the concentration of n-alkanes remains constant below 244mbsf in Site 1433B (less than 200ug/g), suggesting an important change occurred at this horizon, dividing two different environmental domains. These differences in SSTalk and n-alkane concentration between two Sites might not only link with latitudinal location but also the influx of terrestrial biomarker due to the Asian monsoon variability and local oceanographic variations since the last approximately 1.5 Ma. Several indices of Average Chain Length (ACL) and Carbon Preferences Index (ICP) showed large shifts and fluctuations in both Sites. In particular, one of the paleo-plant proxy, Paq, also shows time-dependent large fluctuations in both Sites suggesting long time-scale variations in the flux of terrestrial organic compound as well as paleoclimatic changes in the East Asian area.

  17. Intraseasonal Oscillation in Global Ocean Temperature Inferred from Argo

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    HU Ruijin; WEI Meng

    2013-01-01

    The intraseasonal oscillation (ISO; 14-97-day periods) of temperature in the upper 2000 m of the global ocean was studied based on Argo observations from 2003-2008.It is shown that near the surface the ISO existed mainly in a band east of 60°E,between 10°S and 10°N,and the region around the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC).At other levels analyzed,the ISOs also existed in the regions of the Kuroshio,the Gulf Stream,the Indonesian throughflow,the Somalia current,and the subtropical countercurrent (STCC) of the North Pacific.The intraseasonal signals can be seen even at depths of about 2000 m in some regions of the global ocean.The largest amplitude of ISO appeared at the thermocline of the equatorial Pacific,Atlantic and Indian Ocean,with maximum standard deviation (STD) exceeding 1.2℃.The ACC,the Kuroshio,and the Gulf Stream regions all exhibited large STD for all levels analyzed.Especially at 1000 m,the largest STD appeared in the south and southeast of South Africa-a part of the ACC,with a maximum value that reached 0.5℃.The ratios of the intraseasonal temperature variance to the total variance at 1000 m and at the equator indicated that,in a considerable part of the global deep ocean,the ISO was dominant in the variations of temperature,since such a ratio exceeded even 50% there.A case study also confirmed the existence of the ISO in the deep ocean.These results provide useful information for the design of field observations in the global ocean.Analysis and discussion are also given for the mechanism of the ISO.

  18. Differences in the mean wind and its diurnal variation between wet and dry spells of the monsoon over southeast India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohan, T. S.; Rao, T. N.

    2016-06-01

    The differences in the vertical structure of mean wind and its diurnal variation from the surface to upper troposphere between wet and dry spells are studied using a unique data set consisting of surface and remote sensing (SOund Detection and Ranging and wind profilers) measurements made at Gadanki (13.5°N 79.2°E). Special emphasis was given to study the variation of low-level jet (LLJ) and tropical easterly jet (TEJ), two most conspicuous features of the Indian summer monsoon. Largest and significant wind differences between the spells are observed in the lower troposphere (spell than during wet spell. The spatial variation of LLJ and TEJ depicts intriguing differences between the spells. The LLJ splits into two branches over the Arabian Sea during the dry spell, while only one branch is apparent during the wet spell. On the 100 hPa level, the longitudinal extent of the TEJ is larger during the dry spell than during wet spell. The vertical variation (in particular, in the lower troposphere) of the amplitude and phase of diurnal cycle is significant and, to some extent, different during the dry and wet spells. The plausible mechanisms responsible for the change in the phase of the diurnal cycle with altitude are discussed. The amplitude of the diurnal cycle increases with altitude up to 2 km and then decreases. Largest amplitudes in the entire troposphere and lower stratosphere are found in the height region of 1-2 km. Given that LLJ peak magnitude and height exhibit a strong diurnal variation, one should be careful in obtaining characteristics of the LLJ and nocturnal LLJ from observations made at a fixed time. The diurnal variation of LLJ and TEJ exhibits distinct spatial variability in both spells. The results are compared and contrasted with earlier reports on intraseasonal variability of the LLJ and TEJ.

  19. Sensitivity of convective precipitation to soil moisture and vegetation during break spell of Indian summer monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kutty, Govindan; Sandeep, S.; Vinodkumar; Nhaloor, Sreejith

    2017-07-01

    Indian summer monsoon rainfall is characterized by large intra-seasonal fluctuations in the form of active and break spells in rainfall. This study investigates the role of soil moisture and vegetation on 30-h precipitation forecasts during the break monsoon period using Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model. The working hypothesis is that reduced rainfall, clear skies, and wet soil condition during the break monsoon period enhance land-atmosphere coupling over central India. Sensitivity experiments are conducted with modified initial soil moisture and vegetation. The results suggest that an increase in antecedent soil moisture would lead to an increase in precipitation, in general. The precipitation over the core monsoon region has increased by enhancing forest cover in the model simulations. Parameters such as Lifting Condensation Level, Level of Free Convection, and Convective Available Potential Energy indicate favorable atmospheric conditions for convection over forests, when wet soil conditions prevail. On spatial scales, the precipitation is more sensitive to soil moisture conditions over northeastern parts of India. Strong horizontal gradient in soil moisture and orographic uplift along the upslopes of Himalaya enhanced rainfall over the east of Indian subcontinent.

  20. Sensitivity of the Simulated Tropical Intraseasonal Oscillation to Cumulus Parameterizations

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    JIA Xiaolong; LI Chongyin

    2008-01-01

    The sensitivity of the simulated tropical intraseasonal oscillation or MJO (Madden and Julian oscilla tion)to different cumulus parameterizations is studied by using an atmospheric general circulation model (GCM)-SAMIL(Spectral Atmospheric Model of IAP LASG).Results show that performance of the model in simulating the MJO alters widely when using two different cumulus parameterization schemes-the moist convective adjustment scheme(MCA)and the Zhang-McFarlane(ZM)scheme.MJO simulated by the MCA scheme was found to be more realistic than that simulated by the ZM scheme.MJO produced by the ZM scheme is too weak and shows little propagation characteristics.Weak moisture convergence at low levels simulated by the ZM scheme is not enough to maintain the structure and the eastward propagation of the oscillation.These two cumulus schemes produced different vertical structures of the heating profile.The heating profile produced by the ZM scheme is nearly uniform with height and the heating is too weak compared to that produced by the MCA,which maybe contributes greatly to the failure of simulating a reasonable MJO.Comparing the simulated MJO by these two schemes indicate that the MJO simulated by the GCM is highly sensitive to cumulus parameterizations implanted in.The diabatic heating profile plays an important role in the performance of the GCM.Three sensitivity experiments with different heating profiles are designed in which modified heating profiles peak respectively in the upper troposphere(UH), middle troposphere(MH),and lower troposphere(LH).Both the LH run and the MH run produce eastward propagating signals on the intraseasonal timescale,while it is interesting that the intraseasonal timescale signals produced by the UH run propagate westward.It indicates that a realistic intraseasonal oscillation is more prone to be excited when the maximum heating concentrates in the middle-low levels,especially in the middle levels,while westward propagating disturbances axe more

  1. Analysis of Basic Features of the Onset of the Asian Summer Monsoon

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    In this paper, a relatively systematic climatological research on the onset of the Asian tropical summer monsoon (ATSM) was carried out. Based on a unified index of the ATSM onset, the advance of the whole ATSM was newly made and then the view that the ATSM firstly breaks out over the tropical eastern Indian Ocean and the middle and southern Indo-China Peninsula was further documented, which was in the 26th pentad (about May 10), then over the South China Sea (SCS) in the 28th pentad. It seems that the ATSM onset over the two regions belongs to the different stages of the same monsoon system. Then, the onset mechanism of ATSM was further investigated by the comprehensive analysis on the land-sea thermodynamic contrast, intraseasonal oscillation, and so on, and the several key factors which influence the ATSM onset were put forward. Based on these results, a possible climatological schematic map that the ATSM firstly breaks out over the tropical eastern Indian Ocean, the Indo-China Peninsula, and the SCS was also presented, namely seasonal evolution of the atmospheric circulation was the background of the monsoon onset; the enhancement and northward advance of the convections, the sensible heating and latent heating over the Indo-China Peninsula and its neighboring areas, the dramatic deepening of the India-Burma trough, and the westerly warm advection over the eastern Tibetan Plateau were the major driving forces of the summer monsoon onset, which made the meridional gradient of the temperature firstly reverse over this region and ascending motion develop. Then the tropical monsoon and precipitation rapidly developed and enhanced. The phase-lock of the 30-60-day and 10-20-day low frequency oscillations originated from different sources was another triggering factor for the summer monsoon onset. It was just the common effect of these factors that induced the ATSM earliest onset over this region.

  2. Dynamics of Projected Changes in South Asian Summer Monsoon Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kulkarni, A.; Sabade, S.; Kripalani, R.

    2011-12-01

    South Asian summer monsoon (June through September) rainfall simulation and its potential future changes are evaluated in a multi-model ensemble of global coupled climate models outputs under World Climate Research Program Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (WCRP CMIP3) data set. The response of South Asian summer monsoon to a transient increase in future anthropogenic radiative forcing is investigated for two time slices , middle (2031-2050) and end of the 21st century (2081-2100) in the non-mitigated Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) B1, A1B and A2 .There is large inter-model variability in simulation of spatial characteristics of seasonal monsoon precipitation. Ten out of 25 models are able to simulate space-time characteristics of South Asian monsoon precipitation reasonably well. The response of these selected 10 models have been examined for projected changes in seasonal monsoon rainfall. The multi-model ensemble of these 10 models project significant increase in monsoon precipitation with global warming. The substantial increase in precipitation is observed over western equatorial Indian Ocean and southern parts of India. However the monsoon circulation weakens significantly under all the three climate change experiments. Possible mechanisms for projected increase in precipitation and for precipitation-wind paradox have been discussed. The surface temperature over Asian landmass increases in pre-monsoon months due to global warming and heat low over north-west India intensifies. The dipole snow configuration over Eurasian continent strengthens in warmer atmosphere which is conducive for enhancement in precipitation over Indian landmass. The increase in precipitation is mainly contributed by the substantial increase in water vapor content in the atmosphere. No notable changes have been projected in the El Nino-Monsoon relationship.

  3. Impact of geographic variations of the convective and dehydration center on stratospheric water vapor over the Asian monsoon region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Kai; Fu, Rong; Wang, Tao; Liu, Yimin

    2016-06-01

    The Asian monsoon region is the most prominent moisture center of water vapor in the lower stratosphere (LS) during boreal summer. Previous studies have suggested that the transport of water vapor to the Asian monsoon LS is controlled by dehydration temperatures and convection mainly over the Bay of Bengal and Southeast Asia. However, there is a clear geographic variation of convection associated with the seasonal and intra-seasonal variations of the Asian monsoon circulation, and the relative influence of such a geographic variation of convection vs. the variation of local dehydration temperatures on water vapor transport is still not clear. Using satellite observations from the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and a domain-filling forward trajectory model, we show that almost half of the seasonal water vapor increase in the Asian monsoon LS are attributable to geographic variations of convection and resultant variations of the dehydration center, of which the influence is comparable to the influence of the local dehydration temperature increase. In particular, dehydration temperatures are coldest over the southeast and warmest over the northwest Asian monsoon region. Although the convective center is located over Southeast Asia, an anomalous increase of convection over the northwest Asia monsoon region increases local diabatic heating in the tropopause layer and air masses entering the LS are dehydrated at relatively warmer temperatures. Due to warmer dehydration temperatures, anomalously moist air enters the LS and moves eastward along the northern flank of the monsoon anticyclonic flow, leading to wet anomalies in the LS over the Asian monsoon region. Likewise, when convection increases over the Southeast Asia monsoon region, dry anomalies appear in the LS. On a seasonal scale, this feature is associated with the monsoon circulation, convection and diabatic heating marching towards the northwest Asia monsoon region from June to August. The march of convection

  4. Characterizing two types of transient intraseasonal oscillations in the Eastern Tibetan Plateau summer rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Jing; Bao, Qing; Wang, Bin; He, Haozhe; Gao, Miaoni; Gong, Daoyi

    2016-05-01

    During summer, the intraseasonal disturbances over the Eastern Tibetan Plateau (ETP) can initiate development of severe weather system downstream. Previous studies yielded inconsistent results on the intraseasonal variability (ISV) of summer rainfall in terms of periodicity, genesis process and propagation pathway over the EPT based on small samples. In this study, we detected two dominant peaks of transient ISV, centered on quasi-biweekly (12-24) days (QBW) and quasi-9 (8-11) days using daily rainfall data over the ETP during the period of 1992-2012. Composite analysis revealed that the two ISVs were predominantly associated with the non-stationary wave trains, which traveled along different pathways. For the QBW, its mid-latitude wave train featured a upper-level southeastward migration, originating in Northern Europe and traveling via the East European Plain, the Ural Mountains, Lake Balkhash-Lake Baikal, the Mongolian Plateau, and then continued southward to the ETP and South Asia; and its tropical wave train was characterized with a northwestward/northward migration in low-level, starting from the Philippine Sea (PS)-South China Sea (SCS) region, moving over northern Bay of Bengal-SCS region, and arriving over the southern fridge of TP and southern China. In contrast, for quasi-9-day, the most significant mid-latitudes variability featured an eastward propagating upper-level wave train, originating from Western Europe, passing across the Mediterranean, the Black and Caspian seas, arriving over the TP, and moving towards East Asia; and the most evident tropical variability exhibited a clear northwestward/westward migration of a low-level wave train, originating from PS, passing over Taiwan, and subsequently moving towards southeastern China. Their different spatiotemporal features of associated wave trains caused their distinct linkages with eastern China rainfall anomalies. A "meridional pattern" with a giant Ural Mountain Ridge was the most remarkable

  5. Characterizing two types of transient intraseasonal oscillations in the Eastern Tibetan Plateau summer rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Jing; Bao, Qing; Wang, Bin; He, Haozhe; Gao, Miaoni; Gong, Daoyi

    2017-03-01

    During summer, the intraseasonal disturbances over the Eastern Tibetan Plateau (ETP) can initiate development of severe weather system downstream. Previous studies yielded inconsistent results on the intraseasonal variability (ISV) of summer rainfall in terms of periodicity, genesis process and propagation pathway over the EPT based on small samples. In this study, we detected two dominant peaks of transient ISV, centered on quasi-biweekly (12-24) days (QBW) and quasi-9 (8-11) days using daily rainfall data over the ETP during the period of 1992-2012. Composite analysis revealed that the two ISVs were predominantly associated with the non-stationary wave trains, which traveled along different pathways. For the QBW, its mid-latitude wave train featured a upper-level southeastward migration, originating in Northern Europe and traveling via the East European Plain, the Ural Mountains, Lake Balkhash-Lake Baikal, the Mongolian Plateau, and then continued southward to the ETP and South Asia; and its tropical wave train was characterized with a northwestward/northward migration in low-level, starting from the Philippine Sea (PS)-South China Sea (SCS) region, moving over northern Bay of Bengal-SCS region, and arriving over the southern fridge of TP and southern China. In contrast, for quasi-9-day, the most significant mid-latitudes variability featured an eastward propagating upper-level wave train, originating from Western Europe, passing across the Mediterranean, the Black and Caspian seas, arriving over the TP, and moving towards East Asia; and the most evident tropical variability exhibited a clear northwestward/westward migration of a low-level wave train, originating from PS, passing over Taiwan, and subsequently moving towards southeastern China. Their different spatiotemporal features of associated wave trains caused their distinct linkages with eastern China rainfall anomalies. A "meridional pattern" with a giant Ural Mountain Ridge was the most remarkable

  6. Multiscale control of summertime persistent heavy precipitation events over South China in association with synoptic, intraseasonal, and low-frequency background

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Richard C. Y.; Zhou, Wen

    2015-08-01

    This study examines persistent and short-lived heavy precipitation events (PHPEs and SHPEs, respectively) in South China during summer (July-September) 1975-2009 in association with large-scale circulation and moisture processes at different timescales. Compared to SHPEs, PHPEs are characterized by long-lasting enhanced convection and cyclonic moisture circulation as well as strengthened moisture convergence over South China. Examination of environmental variables at different timescales suggests that intraseasonal and synoptic components play a deterministic role in regulating the overall changes in convection and moisture convergence, while the low-frequency background state plays only a marginal role. Further analysis of the moisture divergence terms also reveals that the overall changes in moisture divergence during PHPEs and SHPEs stem primarily from variations in the intraseasonal and synoptic wind fields rather than in the humidity fields. Overall, it is found that the location and strength of the intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) and the synoptic disturbances play a decisive role in controlling the severity and duration of rainfall events over South China. The synchronization and persistence of the enhanced convection and moisture circulation of the ISO and synoptic disturbances jointly contribute to prolonged heavy precipitation over South China, while the weakening and asynchrony of the associated convection and moisture circulation at different timescales result in rainfall events of weaker intensity and shorter duration.

  7. Differences in atmospheric heat source between the Tibetan Plateau-South Asia region and the southern Indian Ocean and their impacts on the Indian summer monsoon outbreak

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yiwei; Fan, Guangzhou; Hua, Wei; Zhang, Yongli; Wang, Bingyun; Lai, Xin

    2017-06-01

    In this paper, the NCEP-NCAR daily reanalysis data are used to investigate the characteristics of the atmospheric heat source/sink (AHSS) over South Asia (SA) and southern Indian Ocean (SIO). The thermal differences between these two regions and their influence on the outbreak of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) are explored. Composite analysis and correlation analysis are applied. The results indicate that the intraseasonal variability of AHSS is significant in SA but insignificant in the SIO. Large inland areas in the Northern Hemisphere still behave as a heat sink in March, similar to the situation in winter. Significant differences are found in the distribution of AHSS between the ocean and land, with distinct land-ocean thermal contrast in April, and the pattern presents in the transitional period right before the ISM onset. In May, strong heat centers appear over the areas from the Indochina Peninsula to the Bay of Bengal and south of the Tibetan Plateau (TP), which is a typical pattern of AHSS distribution during the monsoon season. The timing of SA-SIO thermal difference turning positive is about 15 pentads in advance of the onset of the ISM. Then, after the thermal differences have turned positive, a pre-monsoon meridional circulation cell develops due to the near-surface heat center and the negative thermal contrast center, after which the meridional circulation of the ISM gradually establishes. In years of early (late) conversion of the SA-SIO thermal difference turning from negative to positive, the AHSS at all levels over the TP and SIO converts later (earlier) than normal and the establishment of the ascending and descending branches of the ISM's meridional circulation is later (earlier) too. Meanwhile, the establishment of the South Asian high over the TP is later (earlier) than normal and the conversion of the Mascarene high from winter to summer mode occurs anomalously late (early). As a result, the onset of the ISM is later (earlier) than normal

  8. Spatio-temporal Distribution of Latent Heating in the Southeast Asian Monsoon Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zuluaga, M. D.; Hoyos, C. D.; Webster, P. J.

    2007-12-01

    The Latent Heat (LH), released as a result of deep convection, plays an important role in the vertical distribution of the diabatic energy budget from the surface to the atmosphere: the motor which drives the global atmospheric circulation, including the Southeast Asian Monsoon. In particular, knowing the spatio-temporal structure of the LH during the wet monsoon season could be a key factor to understand the interaction between seasonal features of the monsoon with the summer manifestation of the intra-seasonal oscillation in the Indian Ocean basin, and hence the distribution of the precipitation. Several studies have investigated how the structure of heating in the tropics has a direct influence in the dynamical response of the atmosphere to the large-scale dynamical forcing associated with tropical precipitating systems. However, these studies assume a uniform geographically distribution of the vertical diabatic heating profiles across the Tropics. The major objective of this study is to produce and to examine three-dimensional latent heating structures over the Indian Monsoon region for the three summer seasons of 1998-2000 period using TRMM-2A12 (GPROF algorithm) and TRMM-CSH (CSH algorithm) data. A specific goal in this work is to explore the differences in the distribution of the latent heating throughout the intraseasonal cycle. This intra- seasonal cycle not only generates wet and dry spells over the South-East Asian continent but also determines the spatial distribution of the climatological JJAS rainfall in the Indian Monsoon Region. Results show spatial distribution differences between the LH profiles during the suppressed and active phases of the oscillation as well as differences in the vertical. During an active phase of the oscillation over the Indian Ocean, the released latent heat is concentrated predominantly near the equator while during the suppressed phased the heating is concentrated in the Bay of Bengal and the continental South East Asia

  9. Centennial to millennial climate variability in the far northwestern Pacific (off Kamchatka and its linkage to the East Asian monsoon and North Atlantic from the Last Glacial Maximum to the early Holocene

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. A. Gorbarenko

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available High-resolution reconstructions based on productivity proxies and magnetic properties of core LV63-41-2 (off Kamchatka reveal prevailing centennial productivity/climate variability in the northwestern (NW Pacific from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM to the early Holocene (EH. The age model of the core is established by AMS 14C dating and by projections of AMS 14C data of the nearby core SO-201-12KL through correlation of the productivity proxies and relative paleomagnetic intensity. The resulting sequence of centennial productivity increases/climate warming events in the NW Pacific occurred synchronously with the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM sub-interstadials during the LGM (four events, Heinrich Event 1 (HE1 (four events, Bølling–Allerød (B/A warming (four events, and over the EH (four events. Remarkable similarity of the sequence of the NW Pacific increased-productivity events with the EASM sub-interstadials over the LGM-HE1 implies that the Siberian High is a strong and common driver. The comparison with the δ18O record from Antarctica suggests that another mechanism associated with the temperature gradient in the Southern Hemisphere may also be responsible for the EASM/NW Pacific centennial events over the LGM-HE1. During the B/A warming and resumption of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC, clear synchronicity between the NW Pacific, EASM and Greenland sub-interstadials was mainly controlled by changes in the atmospheric circulation. During the EH the linkages between solar forcing, ocean circulation, and climate changes likely control the synchronicity of abrupt climate changes in the NW Pacific and North Atlantic. The sequence of centennial events recorded in this study is a persistent regional feature during the LGM-EH, which may serve as a template in high-resolution paleoceanography and sediment stratigraphy in the NW Pacific.

  10. Two distinct intraseasonal modes of summer rainfall variation over the eastern Tibetan Plateau

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, J.; He, H.; Bao, Q.; Wang, B.; Mao, R.; Gong, D.

    2014-12-01

    During summer, the weather disturbances over the eastern Tibetan Plateau (ETP) can initiate development of severe weather system downstream, causing flooding in East Asia. Previous studies yielded inconsistent results on the intraseasonal variability of summer rainfall in terms of periodicity, genesis process and propagation pathway, due to data paucity over the EPT. In this study, we detected two dominant peaks, centered on 10 (8-12) days and 19 (14-24) days using daily rainfall data over the ETP during the period of 1992-2007. Composite analysis revealed that the two modes with different periodicity were predominantly produced by the non-stationary wave trains in the upper troposphere, which traveled along different pathways. For the 19-day mode, the wave train featured a southeastward migration, originating in the Barents Sea and traveling via the East European Plain, the Ural Mountains, Lake Balkhash and Lake Baikal, the Mongolian Plateau, and then continued southward to the ETP and South Asia. In contrast, the 10-day wave train propagated eastward along the westerly jet, extending from the eastern North Atlantic via the Mediterranean, Black and Caspian seas towards the ETP, East Asia and Southeast China. These two transient wave trains took place on different large-scale background circulations: a meridional pattern with a "Giant Ural Mountain Ridge" for the 19-day mode and a zonal pattern with "Western Siberian Trough" for the 10-day mode. In terms of simultaneous downstream linkage, the ETP rainfall anomaly was in-phase with the rainfall anomaly over the Yangtze River Basin for the 19-day mode but out-of-phase with the 10-day mode. The major processes generating the local wet spells for the two modes were found to be commonly linked to topographic lift and mid-tropospheric latent heat release, but the moisture sources are somewhat different. The evolution of the intraseasonal variability over the ETP described here may provide a useful guidance for 2-3 week

  11. Recent change of the global monsoon precipitation (1979-2008)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Bin [University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Meteorology, Honolulu, HI (United States); University of Hawaii at Manoa, International Pacific Research Center, Honolulu, HI (United States); Liu, Jian [Chinese Academy of Sciences, State Key Laboratory of Lake Science and Environment, Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Nanjing (China); Kim, Hyung-Jin [Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Research Institute for Global Change, Yokohama, Kanagawa (Japan); Webster, Peter J. [Georgia Institute of Technology, School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Atlanta, GA (United States); Yim, So-Young [University of Hawaii at Manoa, International Pacific Research Center, Honolulu, HI (United States)

    2012-09-15

    The global monsoon (GM) is a defining feature of the annual variation of Earth's climate system. Quantifying and understanding the present-day monsoon precipitation change are crucial for prediction of its future and reflection of its past. Here we show that regional monsoons are coordinated not only by external solar forcing but also by internal feedback processes such as El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). From one monsoon year (May to the next April) to the next, most continental monsoon regions, separated by vast areas of arid trade winds and deserts, vary in a cohesive manner driven by ENSO. The ENSO has tighter regulation on the northern hemisphere summer monsoon (NHSM) than on the southern hemisphere summer monsoon (SHSM). More notably, the GM precipitation (GMP) has intensified over the past three decades mainly due to the significant upward trend in NHSM. The intensification of the GMP originates primarily from an enhanced east-west thermal contrast in the Pacific Ocean, which is coupled with a rising pressure in the subtropical eastern Pacific and decreasing pressure over the Indo-Pacific warm pool. While this mechanism tends to amplify both the NHSM and SHSM, the stronger (weaker) warming trend in the NH (SH) creates a hemispheric thermal contrast, which favors intensification of the NHSM but weakens the SHSM. The enhanced Pacific zonal thermal contrast is largely a result of natural variability, whilst the enhanced hemispherical thermal contrast is likely due to anthropogenic forcing. We found that the enhanced global summer monsoon not only amplifies the annual cycle of tropical climate but also promotes directly a ''wet-gets-wetter'' trend pattern and indirectly a ''dry-gets-drier'' trend pattern through coupling with deserts and trade winds. The mechanisms recognized in this study suggest a way forward for understanding past and future changes of the GM in terms of its driven mechanisms. (orig.)

  12. An analysis of extreme intraseasonal rainfall events during January-March 2010 over eastern China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yao, Suxiang; Huang, Qian

    2016-09-01

    The precipitation over eastern China during January-March 2010 exhibited a marked intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) and a dominant period of 10-60 days. There were two active intraseasonal rainfall periods. The physical mechanisms responsible for the onset of the two rainfall events were investigated using ERA-interim data. In the first ISO event, anomalous ascending motion was triggered by vertically integrated (1000-300 hPa) warm temperature advection. In addition to southerly anomalies on the intraseasonal (10-60-day) timescale, synoptic-scale southeasterly winds helped advect warm air from the South China Sea and western Pacific into the rainfall region. In the second ISO event, anomalous convection was triggered by a convectively unstable stratification, which was caused primarily by anomalous moisture advection in the lower troposphere (1000-850 hPa) from the Bay of Bengal and the Indo-China Peninsula. Both the intraseasonal and the synoptic winds contributed to the anomalous moisture advection. Therefore, the winter intraseasonal rainfall events over East Asia in winter could be affected not only by intraseasonal activities but also by higher frequency disturbances.

  13. Relationship between land cover and monsoon interannual variations in east Asia

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2002-01-01

    Asian monsoon have multiple forms of variations such as seasonal variation, intra-seasonal variation, interannual variation, etc. The interannual variations have not only yearly variations but also variations among several years. In general, the yearly variations are described with winter temperature and summer precipitation, and the variations among several years are reflected by circulation of ENSO events. In this study, at first, we analyze the relationship between land cover and interannual monsoon variations represented by precipitation changes using Singular Value Decomposition method based on the time series precipitation data and 8km NOAA AVHRR NDVI data covering 1982 to 1993 in east Asia. Furthermore, after confirmation and reclassification of ENSO events which are recognized as the strong signal of several year monsoon variation, using the same time series NDVI data during 1982 to 1993 in east Asia, we make a Principle Component Analysis and analyzed the correlation of the 7th component eigenvectors and Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) that indicates the characteristic of ENSO events, and summed up the temporal-spatial distribution features of east Asian land cover's inter-annual variations that are being driven by changes of ENSO events.

  14. An Integrated East Asian Winter Monsoon Index and Its Interannual Variability%东亚冬季风综合指数及其表达的东亚冬季风年际变化特征

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    贺圣平; 王会军

    2012-01-01

    The collaborative relationship among members of the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) system is first examined through the multivariate EOF (MV-EOF). Univariate EOF is then used to define the intensity index of each single system. Based on the above analyses, an integrated index of the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWMII) is defined. The new index exhibits distinct interannual variability and takes into account variations of Siberian high, East Asian trough, and meridional shear of upper-tropospheric zonal wind. Results show that the EAWMII can capture well the continuous weakening of the EAWM since the mid-1980s. It is also statistically significantly correlated with variations of both atmospheric circulation fields and surface temperature during winter. In addition, the EAWMII is closely related to the Arctic Oscillation (AO) index, the Nino3.4 sea surface temperature index, and the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) index. The impact of AO on the East Asian surface temperature primarily occurs in the middle and high latitudes of Eurasia, Northeast China, and North Japan, etc. The influence of NPO is mainly registered in South China, East China, North Korea, South Korea, and South Japan. It is very likely that the AO affects the EAWM via the NPO.%本文通过多变量经验正交函数展开(multivariate EOF,简称MV-EOF)研究了东亚冬季风各系统成员的协同关系,再运用单变量EOF定义单个系统的强度系数.从而给出能够反映东亚冬季风各主要特征及其年际变化、同时包含西伯利亚高压、东亚大槽和纬向风经向切变信息的强度指数(EAWMII).分析表明,这个新指数EAWMII能够很好地反映东亚冬季风在20世纪80年代中期的减弱信号,并且与大气环流场以及东亚冬季表面温度的变化均显著相关,能够在很大程度上表征东亚冬季风的综合特征.此外,EAWMII与北极涛动(Arctic Oscillation,简称AO)指数、北太平洋涛动(North Pacific Oscillation

  15. Monitoring early-flood season intraseasonal oscillations and persistent heavy rainfall in South China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Jianyun; Lin, Hai; You, Lijun; Chen, Si

    2016-12-01

    Rainfall variability during the early-flood season (April-June) in South China is largely controlled by both the 10-20 and 20-70-day intraseasonal oscillations (ISO). In this study, a method is described to monitor the ISO and persistent heavy rainfall in South China. Three existing daily real-time 20-70-day ISO indices are compared. It is found that the regional East Asia-western North Pacific (EAWNP) ISO index best represents the early-flood season 20-70-day ISO in South China. A new bivariate boreal summer ISO index is designed to describe the 10-20-day ISO in the EAWNP region. Composite analysis shows that the rainfall anomaly in South China is well captured by the northward propagation of both the 10-20 and 20-70-day ISO. With different phase combinations of the 10-20 and 20-70-day EAWNP ISO, nine conditions are defined ranging from those favorable to those unfavorable to heavy rainfall in South China that can be used to effectively monitor the early-flood season ISO and persistent heavy rainfall in South China.

  16. Emergence and evolution of millennial-scale variability in the East Asian summer monsoon over the last 3 Ma recorded in hemipelagic sediments of the Japan Sea recovered by IODP Expedition 346

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tada, R.; Irino, T.; Ikeda, M.; Ikehara, K.; Karasuda, A.; Lu, S.; Seki, A.; Sugisaki, S.; Itaki, T.; Sagawa, T.; Kubota, Y.; Xuan, C.; Murray, R. W.; Alvarez Zarikian, C. A.; Scientists, E.

    2016-12-01

    It has been well established the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) varied on millennial timescales associated with abrupt climatic changes in Greenland known as Dansgaard-Oeschger cycles (DOC). Variations in EASM intensity can now be traced back to 640 ka based on a stalagmite-derived d18O record from South China (Cheng et al., 2016), but no high-resolution EASM records stretch beyond 640 ka. In contrast, millennial-scale oceanic variation has been traced back to 1.45 Ma in the North Atlantic on the Iberian Margin (Hodell et al., 2015), based on scanning XRF Ca/Ti ratios, and the Greenland temperature record has been extended back to 800 ka by the generation of a synthetic temperature record constructed based on the bipolar see-saw relationship between the Greenland and Antarctic temperatures recorded in ice cores (GLT_syn_hi; Baker et al., 2011). The hemipelagic sediments of the Japan Sea offer the potential to reconstruct milllennial-scale climate variability in the NW Pacific because it is characterized by centimeter- to decimeter-scale alternation of dark and light layers with dark (light) layers that correspond to DO interstadials (stadials) (Tada et al., 1999). The dark sediment color reflects Corg content, and deposition of dark layers results from nutrient influx through the southern strait modulated by Yangtze discharge, which reflects EASM precipitation in South China. IODP Exp. 346 drilled six sites in the deeper part of the Japan Sea, and recovered continuous pelagic sequences back to more than 3 Ma. Here, we present a basin-wide correlation of dark and light layers across all six sites back to 3 Ma. The first onset of alternating dark and light layers occurs at 2.6 Ma, but their occurrence is rather irregular. The occurrence becomes more frequent from 2.2 Ma, and then they occur in every glacial periods since 1.3 Ma. The temporal changes in amplitude and frequency, as well as detailed comparison with other high-resolution records will be presented.

  17. Current variability at the Pacific entrance of the Indonesian Throughflow

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kashino, Yuji; Watanabe, Hidetoshi; Herunadi, Bambang; Aoyama, Michio; Hartoyo, Djoko

    1999-05-01

    Current variability at the Pacific entrance of the Indonesian Throughflow is investigated using direct current and hydrographic measurements. Two moorings with three current meters (depths of 350, 550, and 1050 m) and one conductivity-temperature-depth profiler (260 m) were deployed at 4°1'N, 127°31'E and 3°11'N, 128°27'E between Talaud Islands and Morotai Island (Indonesia) from February 1994 to June 1995. Data from four hydrographic surveys conducted mainly between Mindanao and New Guinea from 1994 to 1996 are also used. The onset of a strong northwestward flow was observed at the southern mooring during boreal winter. In contrast, a southwestward flow containing salty South Pacific water was observed there during boreal summer. This current pattern change matched monsoon change around the mooring sites, suggesting that this variability is a seasonal signal in this region. This current change may occur because of the meridional shift of the Halmahera Eddy associated with an enlargement/diminishment of the Mindanao Dome. Our observation result during summer (the southwestward flow with the South Pacific water at the southern mooring) suggests that the Maluku Sea is one of the eastern routes of the Indonesian Throughflow. The current data also revealed that intraseasonal variability occurs in 50-day oscillations. Because the coherence between wind variability in the tropics with a period of 40-50 days (Madden-Julian Oscillation) and current variability with this period are >0.4, it is possible that the 50-day oscillation in the ocean current is induced by wind variability associated with the Madden-Julian Oscillation. The ocean eddy activity with an intrinsic period in this region may also be related to this 50-day oscillation.

  18. Simulation and prediction of blocking in the Australian region and its influence on intra-seasonal rainfall in POAMA-2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marshall, A. G.; Hudson, D.; Hendon, H. H.; Pook, M. J.; Alves, O.; Wheeler, M. C.

    2014-06-01

    We assess the depiction and prediction of blocking at 140°E and its impact on Australian intra-seasonal climate variability in the Bureau of Meteorology's dynamical intra-seasonal/seasonal forecast model Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia version 2 (POAMA-2). The model simulates well the strong seasonality of blocking but underestimates its strength and frequency increasingly with lead time, particularly after the first fortnight of the hindcast, in connection with the model's drifting basic state. POAMA-2 reproduces well the large-scale structure of weekly-mean blocking anomalies and associated rainfall anomalies over Australia; the depiction of total blocking in POAMA-2 may be improved with the reduction of biases in the distribution of Indian Ocean rainfall via a tropical-extratropical wave teleconnection linking blocking activity at 140°E with tropical variability near Indonesia. POAMA-2 demonstrates the ability to skilfully predict the daily blocking index out to 16 days lead time for the ensemble mean hindcast, surpassing the average predictive skill of the individual hindcast members (5 days), the skill obtained from persistence of observed (2 days), and the decorrelation timescale of blocking (3 days). This skilful prediction of the blocking index, together with effective simulation of blocking rainfall anomalies, translates into higher skill in forecasting rainfall in weeks 2 and 3 over much of Australia when blocking is high at the initial time of the hindcast, compared to when the blocking index is small. POAMA-2 is thus capable of providing forecast skill for blocking rainfall on the intra-seasonal timescale to meet the needs of Australian farming communities, whose management practises often rely upon decisions being made a few weeks ahead.

  19. Relationships Between Tropical Deep Convection, Tropospheric Mean Temperature and Cloud-Induced Radiative Fluxes on Intraseasonal Time Scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramey, Holly S.; Robertson, Franklin R.

    2010-01-01

    Intraseasonal variability of deep convection represents a fundamental mode of variability in the organization of tropical convection. While most studies of intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs) have focused on the spatial propagation and dynamics of convectively coupled circulations, we examine the projection of ISOs on the tropically-averaged temperature and energy budget. The area of interest is the global oceans between 20degN/S. Our analysis then focuses on these questions: (i) How is tropospheric temperature related to tropical deep convection and the associated ice cloud fractional amount (ICF) and ice water path (IWP)? (ii) What is the source of moisture sustaining the convection and what role does deep convection play in mediating the PBL - free atmospheric temperature equilibration? (iii) What affect do convectively generated upper-tropospheric clouds have on the TOA radiation budget? Our methodology is similar to that of Spencer et al., (2007) with some modifications and some additional diagnostics of both clouds and boundary layer thermodynamics. A composite ISO time series of cloud, precipitation and radiation quantities built from nearly 40 events during a six-year period is referenced to the atmospheric temperature signal. The increase of convective precipitation cannot be sustained by evaporation within the domain, implying strong moisture transports into the tropical ocean area. While there is a decrease in net TOA radiation that develops after the peak in deep convective rainfall, there seems little evidence that an "Infrared Iris"- like mechanism is dominant. Rather, the cloud-induced OLR increase seems largely produced by weakened convection with warmer cloud tops. Tropical ISO events offer an accessible target for studying ISOs not just in terms of propagation mechanisms, but on their global signals of heat, moisture and radiative flux feedback processes.

  20. Is an onset vortex important for monsoon onset over Kerala?

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    RameshKumar, M.R.; Sankar, S.; Reason, C.

    Inter-annual variability in the formation of the mini warm pool [sea-surface temperature (SST) more than 30 degrees C] over the south eastern Arabian Sea (SEAS) and its role in the formation of the monsoon onset vortex (MOV) has been examined using...

  1. Diagnosing Air-Sea Interactions on Intraseasonal Timescales

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeMott, C. A.

    2014-12-01

    What is the role of ocean coupling in the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO)? Consensus thinking holds that the essential physics of the MJO involve interactions between convection, atmospheric wave dynamics, and boundary layer and free troposphere moisture. However, many modeling studies demonstrate improved MJO simulation when an atmosphere-only general circulation model (AGCM) is coupled to an ocean model, so feedbacks from the ocean are probably not negligible. Assessing the importance and processes of these feedbacks is challenging for at least two reasons. First, observations of the MJO only sample the fully coupled ocean-atmosphere system; there is no "uncoupled" MJO in nature. Second, the practice of analyzing the MJO in uncoupled and coupled GCMs (CGCMs) involves using imperfect tools to study the problem. Although MJO simulation is improving in many models, shortcomings remain in both AGCMs and CGCMs, making it difficult to determine if changes brought about through coupling reflect critical air-sea interactions or are simply part of the collective idiosyncracies of a given model. For the atmosphere, ocean feedbacks from intraseasonal sea surface temperature (SST) variations are communicated through their effects on surface fluxes of heat and moisture. This presentation suggests a set of analysis tools for diagnosing the impact of an interactive ocean on surface latent and sensible heat fluxes, including their mean, variance, spectral characteristics, and phasing with respect to wind, SST, and MJO convection. The diagnostics are demonstrated with application to several CMIP5 models, and reveal a variety of responses to coupled ocean feedbacks.

  2. Trace gas transport out of the Indian Summer Monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tomsche, Laura; Pozzer, Andrea; Zimmermann, Peter; Parchatka, Uwe; Fischer, Horst

    2016-04-01

    The trace gas transport out of the Indian summer monsoon was investigated during the aircraft campaign OMO (Oxidation Mechanism Observations) with the German research aircraft HALO (High Altitude and Long Range Research Aircraft) in July/August 2015. HALO was based at Paphos/Cyprus and also on Gan/Maledives. Flights took place over the Mediterranean Sea, the Arabian Peninsula and the Arabian Sea. In this work the focus is on the distribution of carbon monoxide (CO) and methane (CH4) in the upper troposphere. They were measured with the laser absorption spectrometer TRISTAR on board of HALO. During the Indian summer monsoon strong convection takes place over India and the Bay of Bengal. In this area the population is high accompanied by many emission sources e.g. wetlands and cultivation of rice. Consequently the boundary layer is polluted containing high concentrations of trace gases like methane and carbon monoxide. Due to vertical transport these polluted air masses are lifted to the upper troposphere. Here they circulate with the so called Asian monsoon anticyclone. In the upper troposphere polluted air masses lead to a change in the chemical composition thus influence the chemical processes. Furthermore the anticyclone spreads the polluted air masses over a larger area. Thus the outflow of the anticyclone in the upper troposphere leads to higher concentrations of trace gases over the Arabian Sea, the Arabian Peninsula and also over the eastern part of North Africa and the eastern part of the Mediterranean Sea. During OMO higher concentrations of methane and carbon monoxide were detected at altitudes between 11km and 15km. The highest measured concentrations of carbon monoxide and methane were observed over Oman. The CO concentration in the outflow of the monsoon exceeds background levels by 10-15ppb. However the enhancement in the concentration is not obviously connected to the monsoon due to the natural variability in the troposphere. The enhancement in the

  3. Hydrography of the eastern Arabian Sea during summer monsoon 2002

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Shankar, D.; Shenoi, S.S.C.; Nayak, R.K.; Vinayachandran, P.N.; Nampoothiri, G.S.; Almeida, A.M.; Michael, G.S.; RameshKumar, M.R.; Sundar, D.; Sreejith, O.P.

    (figure 10), unlike in the Lakshadweep Sea before the onset of the summer monsoon (Durand et al 2004; Shenoi et al 2004, 2005a; Shankar et al 2004). The 10 cm rain event during SK-179 caused but a 0.2openbulletCfallintemper- ature, comparable... in the Lakshadweep Sea before the onset of the summer monsoon (Durand et al 2004; Shenoi et al 2004, 2005a). Variability in the salinity field was not confined to the surface layers, but was evident throughout the depth range of the observations. The high- salinity...

  4. On Winning the Race for Predicting the Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goswami, Bhupendra

    2013-03-01

    Skillful prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) one season in advance remains a ``grand challenge'' for the climate science community even though such forecasts have tremendous socio-economic implications over the region. Continued poor skill of the ocean-atmosphere coupled models in predicting ISMR is an enigma in the backdrop when these models have high skill in predicting seasonal mean rainfall over the rest of the Tropics. Here, I provide an overview of the fundamental processes responsible for limited skill of climate models and outline a framework for achieving the limit on potential predictability within a reasonable time frame. I also show that monsoon intra-seasonal oscillations (MISO) act as building blocks of the Asian monsoon and provide a bridge between the two problems, the potential predictability limit and the simulation of seasonal mean climate. The correlation between observed ISMR and ensemble mean of predicted ISMR (R) can still be used as a metric for forecast verification. Estimate of potential limit of predictability of Asian monsoon indicates that the highest achievable R is about 0.75. Improvements in climate models and data assimilation over the past one decade has slowly improved R from near zero a decade ago to about 0.4 currently. The race for achieving useful prediction can be won, if we can push this skill up to about 0.7. It requires focused research in improving simulations of MISO, monsoon seasonal cycle and ENSO-monsoon relationship by the climate models. In order to achieve this goal by 2015-16 timeframe, IITM is leading a Program called Monsoon Mission supported by the Ministry of Earth Sciences, Govt. of India (MoES). As improvement in skill of forecasts can come only if R & D is carried out on an operational modeling system, the Climate Forecast System of National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) of NOAA, U.S.A has been selected as our base system. The Mission envisages building partnership between

  5. THE INTRUSION AND INFLUENCES OF INTRASEASONAL LONG ROSSBY WAVES IN THE EAST CHINA SEA

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LIN Xiao-pei; WU De-xing; LAN Jian

    2004-01-01

    The analysis of sea level data from tide stations and ocean general circulation model(OGCM)shows that the intraseasonal long Rossby wave results in the intraseasonal variations of Kuroshio axis and transport in the upper reaches of the Kuroshio in the East China Sea(ECS).Due to the transport modulation induced by Ryukyu Islands,the intraseasonal variation is very weak in the lower reaches of the Kuroshio in the ECS.A two-layer model reveals the relation among Kuroshio frontal unstable wave with topography,transport and the axis position of the Kuroshio,from which we can infer that the intrusion of intraseasonal long Rossby wave may stimulate the Kuroshio frontal unstable wave in the upper reaches of the Kuroshio in the ECS.The altimeter data also shows that the sea level anomaly resulting from intraseasonal long Rossby wave could pass the channel between Taiwan and Ryukyu Islands and propagate northeastward in accord with the Kuroshio frontal unstable wave.However,the sea level anomalies passing through the gaps of Ryukyu Islands are relative weak and have negligible effects on the Kuroshio variation.

  6. Driving forces of Indian summer monsoon on Milankovitch and sub-Milankovitch time scales: A review

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Naidu, P.D.

    and deep water circulation changes drive the variability of southwest (SW) monsoon in the Indian subcontinent. Different forcing factors act on different time scales. Arabian Sea sediments consist of distinct fauna that are endemic to areas of upwelling...

  7. Observed Intraseasonal Oceanic Variations in the Eastern Equatorial Indian Ocean and in the Outflow Straits of the Indonesian Throughflow

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iskhaq Iskandar

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available The observed currents in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean and in the outflow straits of the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF are shown to have significant intraseasonal variations and coherency during January 2004 – November 2006. The wavelet analysis between the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean and the ITF straits demonstrates significant intraseasonal coherency for the observed current at 50m depth. At 150m depth, the intraseasonal coherency only occurs between the observed currents in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean and in the Lombok and Ombai Straits. On the other hand, at 350m depth the intraseasonal coherency is only found between the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean and the Ombai Strait. This intraseasonal coherency is associated with the wind-forced equatorial Kelvin waves which propagate eastward along the equatorial and coastal wave guides. Near-surface intraseasonal variations are associated with the first baroclinic mode with typical phase speed of 2.91 ± 0.46 m s-1, while the deeper layer intraseasonal variations are associated with the second baroclinic mode with typical phase speed of 1.59 ± 0.18 m s-1. Moreover, the lag correlations between the zonal winds and the observed currents at the ITF straits further demonstrate the source of intraseasonal variations in the ITF.

  8. Modelling Monsoons: Understanding and Predicting Current and Future Behaviour

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Turner, A; Sperber, K R; Slingo, J M; Meehl, G A; Mechoso, C R; Kimoto, M; Giannini, A

    2008-09-16

    The global monsoon system is so varied and complex that understanding and predicting its diverse behaviour remains a challenge that will occupy modellers for many years to come. Despite the difficult task ahead, an improved monsoon modelling capability has been realized through the inclusion of more detailed physics of the climate system and higher resolution in our numerical models. Perhaps the most crucial improvement to date has been the development of coupled ocean-atmosphere models. From subseasonal to interdecadal timescales, only through the inclusion of air-sea interaction can the proper phasing and teleconnections of convection be attained with respect to sea surface temperature variations. Even then, the response to slow variations in remote forcings (e.g., El Nino-Southern Oscillation) does not result in a robust solution, as there are a host of competing modes of variability that must be represented, including those that appear to be chaotic. Understanding the links between monsoons and land surface processes is not as mature as that explored regarding air-sea interactions. A land surface forcing signal appears to dominate the onset of wet season rainfall over the North American monsoon region, though the relative role of ocean versus land forcing remains a topic of investigation in all the monsoon systems. Also, improved forecasts have been made during periods in which additional sounding observations are available for data assimilation. Thus, there is untapped predictability that can only be attained through the development of a more comprehensive observing system for all monsoon regions. Additionally, improved parameterizations - for example, of convection, cloud, radiation, and boundary layer schemes as well as land surface processes - are essential to realize the full potential of monsoon predictability. Dynamical considerations require ever increased horizontal resolution (probably to 0.5 degree or higher) in order to resolve many monsoon features

  9. Atlantic effects on recent decadal trends in global monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamae, Youichi; Li, Xichen; Xie, Shang-Ping; Ueda, Hiroaki

    2017-01-01

    Natural climate variability contributes to recent decadal climate trends. Specifically the trends during the satellite era since 1979 include Atlantic and Indian Ocean warming and Pacific cooling associated with phase shifts of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and enhanced global monsoon (GM) circulation and rainfall especially in the Northern Hemisphere. Here we evaluate effects of the oceanic changes on the global and regional monsoon trends by partial ocean temperature restoring experiments in a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model. Via trans-basin atmosphere-ocean teleconnections, the Atlantic warming drives a global pattern of sea surface temperature change that resembles observations, giving rise to the enhanced GM. The tropical Atlantic warming and the resultant Indian Ocean warming favor subtropical deep-tropospheric warming in both hemispheres, resulting in the enhanced monsoon circulations and precipitation over North America, South America and North Africa. The extratropical North Atlantic warming makes an additional contribution to the monsoon enhancement via Eurasian continent warming and resultant land-sea thermal gradient over Asia. The results of this study suggest that the Atlantic multidecadal variability can explain a substantial part of global climate variability including the recent decadal trends of GM.

  10. THE ANALYSIS OF INTRASEASONAL LONG ROSSBY WAVE SPEED IN THE SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC OCEAN

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2006-01-01

    The analysis of the satellite altimeter data suggests that the propagating speed of intraseasonal long Rossby wave amplified in the subtropical Pacific Ocean is faster than that of first-mode baroclinic free Rossby wave predicted by the liner theory and the propagating speed of intraseasonal long Rossby wave reflected in the eastern boundary of Pacific Ocean agrees basically with the liner theory speed of first-mode baroclinic free Rossby wave. If we do not distinguish the two kinds of long Rossby waves and estimate the Rossby wave speed in the whole basin, the phase speed is merely 25% higher than the linear theory long Rossby wave speed. The acceleration of the propagating speed of intraseasonal long Rossby wave amplified in the subtropical Pacific Ocean is due to the existence of westward thermolcline mean flow.

  11. The footprint of Asian monsoon dynamics in the mass and energy balance of a Tibetan glacier

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Mölg

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Determinations of glacier-wide mass and energy balance are still scarce for the remote mountains of the Tibetan Plateau, where field measurements are challenging. Here we run and evaluate a physical, distributed mass balance model for Zhadang Glacier (central Tibet, 30° N based on in-situ measurements over 2009–2011 and an uncertainty estimate by Monte Carlo and ensemble strategies. The model application aims to provide the first quantification of how the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM impacts an entire glacier over the various stages of the monsoon's annual cycle. We find a strong and systematic ISM footprint on the interannual scale. Early (late monsoon onset causes higher (lower accumulation, and reduces (increases the available energy for ablation primarily through changes in absorbed shortwave radiation. By contrast, only a weak footprint exists in the ISM cessation phase. Most striking though is the core monsoon season: local mass and energy balance variability is fully decoupled from the active/break cycle that defines large-scale atmospheric variability during the ISM. Our results demonstrate quantitatively that monsoon onset strongly affects the ablation season of glaciers in Tibet. However, we find no direct ISM impact on the glacier in the main monsoon season, which has not been acknowledged so far. This result also adds cryospheric evidence that, once the monsoon is in full swing, regional atmospheric variability prevails on the Tibetan Plateau in summer.

  12. The footprint of Asian monsoon dynamics in the mass and energy balance of a Tibetan glacier

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mölg, T.; Maussion, F.; Yang, W.; Scherer, D.

    2012-12-01

    Determinations of glacier-wide mass and energy balance are still scarce for the remote mountains of the Tibetan Plateau, where field measurements are challenging. Here we run and evaluate a physical, distributed mass balance model for Zhadang Glacier (central Tibet, 30° N) based on in-situ measurements over 2009-2011 and an uncertainty estimate by Monte Carlo and ensemble strategies. The model application aims to provide the first quantification of how the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) impacts an entire glacier over the various stages of the monsoon's annual cycle. We find a strong and systematic ISM footprint on the interannual scale. Early (late) monsoon onset causes higher (lower) accumulation, and reduces (increases) the available energy for ablation primarily through changes in absorbed shortwave radiation. By contrast, only a weak footprint exists in the ISM cessation phase. Most striking though is the core monsoon season: local mass and energy balance variability is fully decoupled from the active/break cycle that defines large-scale atmospheric variability during the ISM. Our results demonstrate quantitatively that monsoon onset strongly affects the ablation season of glaciers in Tibet. However, we find no direct ISM impact on the glacier in the main monsoon season, which has not been acknowledged so far. This result also adds cryospheric evidence that, once the monsoon is in full swing, regional atmospheric variability prevails on the Tibetan Plateau in summer.

  13. Origins of wind-driven intraseasonal sea level variations in the North Indian Ocean coastal waveguide

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Suresh, I.; Vialard, J.; Lengaigne, M.; Han, W.; McCreary, J.P.; Durand, F.; Muraleedharan, P.M.

    over the 30°S−30°N, 30°E−110°E domain, with a coastline determined from the 200-m isobath. The model is forced by intraseasonal (20−150-day filtered) daily QuikSCAT wind-stresses (available from http://cersat/ifremer.fr/data/) from August, 1999... to October, 2009. Several studies indicate that this wind-stress product yields a realistic intraseasonal oceanic response in the equatorial Indian Ocean [e.g., Sengupta et al., 2007; Nagura and McPhaden, 2012]. We show results obtained using 5 baroclinic...

  14. Arabian Peninsula-North Pacific Oscillation and its association with the Asian summer monsoon

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2008-01-01

    Using correlation and EOF analyses on sea level pressure from 57-year NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data, the Arabian Peninsula-North Pacific Oscillation (APNPO) is identified. The APNPO reflects the co-variability between the North Pacific high and South Asian summer monsoon low. This teleconnec- tion pattern is closely related to the Asian summer monsoon. On interannual timescale, it co-varies with both the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and South Asian summer monsoon (SASM); on decadal timescale, it co-varies with the EASM: both exhibit two abrupt climate changes in the middle 1960s and the late 1970s respectively. The possible physical process for the connections between the APNPO and Asian summer monsoon is then explored by analyzing the APNPO-related atmospheric circulations. The results show that with a strong APNPO, the Somali Jet, SASM flow, EASM flow, and South Asian high are all enhanced, and an anomalous anticyclone is produced at the upper level over northeast China via a zonal wave train. Meanwhile, the moisture transportation to the Asian monsoon regions is also strengthened in a strong APNPO year, leading to a strong moisture convergence over India and northern China. All these changes of circulations and moisture conditions finally result in an anoma- lous Asian summer monsoon and monsoon rainfall over India and northern China. In addition, the APNPO has a good persistence from spring to summer. The spring APNPO is also significantly corre- lated with Asian summer monsoon variability. The spring APNPO might therefore provide valuable in- formation for the prediction of Asian summer monsoon.

  15. Meteorological results of monsoon-88 Expedition (pre-monsoon period)

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Sadhuram, Y.; Krishnamurthy, L.; Babu, M.T.

    Mean atmospheric circulation, moisture budget and net heat exchange were studied during a pre-monsoon period (18th March to 3rd May, 1988), making use of the data collected on board "Akademik Korolev" in the central equatorial and southern Arabian...

  16. Detailed Analysis of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall Processes with Modern/High-Quality Satellite Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Eric A.; Kuo, Kwo-Sen; Mehta, Amita V.; Yang, Song

    2007-01-01

    We examine, in detail, Indian Summer Monsoon rainfall processes using modernhigh quality satellite precipitation measurements. The focus here is on measurements derived from three NASA cloud and precipitation satellite missionslinstruments (TRMM/PR&TMI, AQUNAMSRE, and CLOUDSATICPR), and a fourth TRMM Project-generated multi-satellite precipitation measurement dataset (viz., TRMM standard algorithm 3b42) -- all from a period beginning in 1998 up to the present. It is emphasized that the 3b42 algorithm blends passive microwave (PMW) radiometer-based precipitation estimates from LEO satellites with infi-ared (IR) precipitation estimates from a world network of CEO satellites (representing -15% of the complete space-time coverage) All of these observations are first cross-calibrated to precipitation estimates taken from standard TRMM combined PR-TMI algorithm 2b31, and second adjusted at the large scale based on monthly-averaged rain-gage measurements. The blended approach takes advantage of direct estimates of precipitation from the PMW radiometerequipped LEO satellites -- but which suffer fi-om sampling limitations -- in combination with less accurate IR estimates from the optical-infrared imaging cameras on GEO satellites -- but which provide continuous diurnal sampling. The advantages of the current technologies are evident in the continuity and coverage properties inherent to the resultant precipitation datasets that have been an outgrowth of these stable measuring and retrieval technologies. There is a wealth of information contained in the current satellite measurements of precipitation regarding the salient precipitation properties of the Indian Summer Monsoon. Using different datasets obtained from the measuring systems noted above, we have analyzed the observations cast in the form of: (1) spatially distributed means and variances over the hierarchy of relevant time scales (hourly I diurnally, daily, monthly, seasonally I intra-seasonally, and inter

  17. Towards Understanding Planetary Boundary Layer Regimes in Relation to Indian Summer Monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sathyanadh, A.

    2015-12-01

    Atmospheric boundary layer processes play crucial role in modulating weather and climate of the earth. Information on the planetary boundary layer characteristics are important in various aspects. Analyses presented in the study are mainly carried out using Modern Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) reanalysis data products. Hourly values of PBL height, soil moisture, fluxes, cloud cover, and atmospheric stability in the region 5-38° N, 60 - 100o E are used. The MERRA PBL heights are validated with PBL heights calculated using GPS RO atmospheric profiles during 2007-09 and radiosonde observations in order to assess the suitability of MERRA data for the PBL analysis. The radiosonde data used are from two sources: (i) routine radiosonde observations conducted by India Meteorological Department over the Indian subcontinent and (ii) additional radiosonde observations conducted by the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology as a part of the Cloud Aerosol Interaction and Precipitation Enhancement Experiment during theSW monsoon, 2009. Spatio-temporal variations of PBL height in relation to different phases of monsoon and intra-seasonal variations are investigated in detail. Seasonal variations show a deeper premonsoon boundary layer and a shallower monsoon boundary layer, with large spatial variations. The PBLH variations over inland locations are found to be in good agreement with onset and progress of monsoon rainfall and associated soil moisture variations. The active and break spell monsoon PBL heights analyzed using 20-year PBL data showed deeper PBLHs during break periods compared to active period. Based on the maximum PBLH and growth characteristics, different regimes are identified which are mainly controlled by soil moisture/ evaporative fraction, but further influenced by stability of the surface, cloudiness, wind shear, etc. resulting in complex PBL regimes in relation to monsoon. The maximum PBLH, growth rate, time of occurrence

  18. Evaluation of CFSV2 Forecast Skill for Indian Summer Monsoon Sub-Seasonal Characteristics

    Science.gov (United States)

    S, S. A.; Ghosh, S.

    2015-12-01

    Prediction of sub seasonal monsoon characteristics of Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) is highly crucial for agricultural planning and water resource management. The Climate forecast System version 2 (CFS V2), the state of the art coupled climate model developed by NCEP, is currently being employed for the seasonal and extended range forecasts of ISM. Even though CFSV2 is a fully coupled ocean- atmosphere- land model with advanced physics, increased resolution and refined initialisation, its ISM forecasts, in terms of seasonal mean and variability needs improvement. Numerous works have been done for verifying the CFSV2 forecasts in terms of the seasonal mean, its mean and variability, active and break spells, and El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) - monsoon interactions. Most of these works are based on either rain fall strength or rainfall based indices. Here we evaluate the skill of CFS v2 model in forecasting the various sub seasonal features of ISM, viz., the onset and withdrawal days of monsoon that are determined using circulation based indices, the Monsoon Intra Seasonal Oscillations (MISO), and Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures. The MISO index, we use here, is based on zonal wind at 850 hPa and Outgoing Long wave Radiation (OLR) anomalies. With this work, we aim at assessing the skill of the model in simulating the large scale circulation patterns and their variabilities within the monsoon season. Variabilities in these large scale circulation patterns are primarily responsible for the variabilities in the seasonal monsoon strength and its temporal distribution across the season. We find that the model can better forecast the large scale circulation and than the actual precipitation. Hence we suggest that seasonal rainfall forecasts can be improved by the statistical downscaling of CFSV2 forecasts by incorporating the established relationships between the well forecasted large scale variables and monsoon precipitation.

  19. Observations of the intraseasonal oscillations over two Brazilian low latitude stations: A comparative study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guharay, A.; Batista, P. P.; Clemesha, B. R.; Buriti, R. A.

    2014-12-01

    A comparative study of intraseasonal oscillations (ISO) in the period range 20-110 days is carried out in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) zonal wind at two low latitude stations, Cariri (7.4°S, 36.5°W) and Cachoeira Paulista (22.7°S, 45°W) located far from the convective anomaly region. Considerable seasonal and interannual variability is observed. The ISO in the MLT and lower atmosphere are found to be well correlated during winter and spring indicating a coupling of the atmospheric regions through the ISO. On the other hand, relatively less correlation during summer and fall may suggest a dominance of the in situ excitation of the ISO in the MLT relative to the lower atmospheric contribution. The correlation between the MLT and lower atmosphere is found to be a little higher at Cachoeira Paulista than Cariri. The ISO in the MLT shows good correlation between the two stations, but correlation is insignificant in the case of lower atmosphere. The ISO is most prominent in the upper troposphere, upper stratosphere and MLT. The waves responsible for communicating the ISO signature from the troposphere to the middle atmosphere in the tropics are believed to refract through mid-latitudes in course of their propagation. An evident height variation of the high amplitude ISO in the upper troposphere is observed with a clear annual oscillation at Cariri. The observed behaviors of the ISO at the present sites are discussed in the light of plausible physical mechanisms.

  20. An Assessment of the South Asian Summer Monsoon Variability for Present and Future Climatologies Using a High Resolution Regional Climate Model (RegCM4.3 under the AR5 Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mujtaba Hassan

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available We assessed the present and future climatologies of mean summer monsoon over South Asia using a high resolution regional climate model (RegCM4 with a 25 km horizontal resolution. In order to evaluate the performance of the RegCM4 for the reference period (1976–2005 and for the far future (2070–2099, climate change projections under two greenhouse gas representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 were made, the lateral boundary conditions being provided by the geophysical fluid dynamic laboratory global model (GFDL-ESM2M. The regional climate model (RCM improves the simulation of seasonal mean temperature and precipitation patterns compared to driving global climate model (GCM during present-day climate conditions. The regional characteristic features of South Asian summer monsoon (SASM, like the low level jet stream and westerly flow over the northern the Arabian Sea, are well captured by the RegCM4. In spite of some discrepancies, the RegCM4 could simulate the Tibetan anticyclone and the direction of the tropical easterly jet reasonably well at 200 hPa. The projected temperature changes in 2070–2099 relative to 1976–2005 for GFDL-ESM2M show increased warming compared to RegCM4. The projected patterns at the end of 21st century shows an increase in precipitation over the Indian Peninsula and the Western Ghats. The possibilities of excessive precipitation include increased southwesterly flow in the wet period and the effect of model bias on climate change. However, the spatial patterns of precipitation are decreased in intensity and magnitude as the monsoon approaches the foothills of the Himalayas. The RegCM4-projected dry conditions over northeastern India are possibly related to the anomalous anticyclonic circulations in both scenarios.

  1. Aerosol meteorology of the Maritime Continent for the 2012 7SEAS southwest monsoon intensive study - Part 1: regional-scale phenomena

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reid, Jeffrey S.; Xian, Peng; Holben, Brent N.; Hyer, Edward J.; Reid, Elizabeth A.; Salinas, Santo V.; Zhang, Jianglong; Campbell, James R.; Chew, Boon Ning; Holz, Robert E.; Kuciauskas, Arunas P.; Lagrosas, Nofel; Posselt, Derek J.; Sampson, Charles R.; Walker, Annette L.; Welton, E. Judd; Zhang, Chidong

    2016-11-01

    The largest 7 Southeast Asian Studies (7SEAS) operation period within the Maritime Continent (MC) occurred in the August-September 2012 biomass burning season. Included was an enhanced deployment of Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) sun photometers, multiple lidars, and field measurements to observe transported smoke and pollution as it left the MC and entered the southwest monsoon trough. Here we describe the nature of the overall 2012 southwest monsoon (SWM) and biomass burning season to give context to the 2012 deployment. The MC in 2012 was in a slightly warm El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase and with spatially typical burning activity. However, overall fire counts for 2012 were 10 % lower than the Reid et al. (2012) baseline, with regions of significant departures from this norm, ranging from southern Sumatra (+30 %) to southern Kalimantan (-42 %). Fire activity and monsoonal flows for the dominant burning regions were modulated by a series of intraseasonal oscillation events (e.g., Madden-Julian Oscillation, or MJO, and boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation, or BSISO). As is typical, fire activity systematically progressed eastward over time, starting with central Sumatran fire activity in June related to a moderately strong MJO event which brought drier air from the Indian Ocean aloft and enhanced monsoonal flow. Further burning in Sumatra and Kalimantan Borneo occurred in a series of significant events from early August to a peak in the first week of October, ending when the monsoon started to migrate back to its wintertime northeastern flow conditions in mid-October. Significant monsoonal enhancements and flow reversals collinear with tropical cyclone (TC) activity and easterly waves were also observed. Islands of the eastern MC, including Sulawesi, Java, and Timor, showed less sensitivity to monsoonal variation, with slowly increasing fire activity that also peaked in early October but lingered into November. Interestingly, even though fire

  2. The footprint of Asian monsoon dynamics in the mass and energy balance of a Tibetan glacier

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Mölg

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Determinations of glacier-wide mass and energy balance are still scarce for the remote mountains of the Tibetan Plateau, where field measurements are challenging. Here we run and evaluate a physical, distributed mass balance model for Zhadang glacier (central Tibet, 30° N, based on in-situ measurements over 2009–2011 and an uncertainty estimate by Monte Carlo and ensemble strategies. The model application aims to provide the first quantification of how the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM impacts an entire glacier over the various stages of the monsoon's annual cycle. We find a strong and systematic ISM footprint on the interannual scale. Early (late monsoon onset causes higher (lower accumulation, and reduces (increases the available energy for ablation primarily through changes in absorbed shortwave radiation. By contrast, only a weak footprint exists in the ISM cessation phase. Most striking though is the core monsoon season: local mass and energy balance variability is fully decoupled from the active/break cycle that defines large-scale atmospheric variability during the ISM. Our results demonstrate quantitatively that monsoon onset strongly affects the ablation season of glaciers in Tibet. However, we find no direct ISM impact on the glacier in the main monsoon season, which has not been acknowledged so far. This result also adds cryospheric evidence that regional modification of the large-scale monsoon flow prevails on the Tibetan Plateau in summer.

  3. Intraseasonal response of the northern Indian Ocean coastal waveguide to the Madden-Julian Oscillation

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Vialard, J.; Shenoi, S.S.C.; McCreary, J.P.; Shankar, D.; Durand, F.; Fernando, V.; Shetye, S.R.

    . These observations can be interpreted within the framework of linear wave theory. At 15 degrees N, the minimum period for planetary waves is approx. 90 day, meaning that intraseasonal energy is largely trapped at the coast in the form of poleward-propagating Kelvin...

  4. THE EAST ASIAN SUBTROPICAL SUMMER MONSOON INDEX AND ITS RELATION WITH THE CLIMATE ANOMALIES IN CHINA

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LIU Xuan-fei; WANG-Jing

    2007-01-01

    A new East Asian subtropical summer monsoon circulation index is defined, where the barotropic and baroclinic components of circulation are included. Results show that this index can well indicate the interannual variability of summer precipitation and temperature anomalies in China. A strong monsoon is characterized by more rainfall in the Yellow River basin and northern China, less rainfall in the Yangtze River basin, and more rainfall in south and southeast China, in association with higher temperature in most areas of China. Furthermore, comparison is made between the index proposed in this paper and other monsoon indexes in representing climate anomalies in China.

  5. Projected changes in South Asian summer monsoon by multi-model global warming experiments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sabade, S. S.; Kulkarni, Ashwini; Kripalani, R. H.

    2011-03-01

    South Asian summer monsoon (June through September) rainfall simulation and its potential future changes are evaluated in a multi-model ensemble of global coupled climate models outputs under World Climate Research Program Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (WCRP CMIP3) dataset. The response of South Asian summer monsoon to a transient increase in future anthropogenic radiative forcing is investigated for two time slices, middle (2031-2050) and end of the twenty-first century (2081-2100), in the non-mitigated Special Report on Emission Scenarios B1, A1B and A2 .There is large inter-model variability in the simulation of spatial characteristics of seasonal monsoon precipitation. Ten out of the 25 models are able to simulate space-time characteristics of the South Asian monsoon precipitation reasonably well. The response of these selected ten models has been examined for projected changes in seasonal monsoon rainfall. The multi-model ensemble of these ten models projects a significant increase in monsoon precipitation with global warming. The substantial increase in precipitation is observed over western equatorial Indian Ocean and southern parts of India. However, the monsoon circulation weakens significantly under all the three climate change experiments. Possible mechanisms for the projected increase in precipitation and for precipitation-wind paradox have been discussed. The surface temperature over Asian landmass increases in pre-monsoon months due to global warming and heat low over northwest India intensifies. The dipole snow configuration over Eurasian continent strengthens in warmer atmosphere, which is conducive for the enhancement in precipitation over Indian landmass. No notable changes have been projected in the El Niño-Monsoon relationship, which is useful for predicting interannual variations of the monsoon.

  6. Observations of the temporal variability in aerosol properties and their relationships to meteorology in the summer monsoonal South China Sea/East Sea: the scale-dependent role of monsoonal flows, the Madden-Julian Oscillation, tropical cyclones, squall lines and cold pools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reid, J. S.; Lagrosas, N. D.; Jonsson, H. H.; Reid, E. A.; Sessions, W. R.; Simpas, J. B.; Uy, S. N.; Boyd, T. J.; Atwood, S. A.; Blake, D. R.; Campbell, J. R.; Cliff, S. S.; Holben, B. N.; Holz, R. E.; Hyer, E. J.; Lynch, P.; Meinardi, S.; Posselt, D. J.; Richardson, K. A.; Salinas, S. V.; Smirnov, A.; Wang, Q.; Yu, L.; Zhang, J.

    2015-02-01

    In a joint NRL/Manila Observatory mission, as part of the Seven SouthEast Asian Studies program (7-SEAS), a 2-week, late September 2011 research cruise in the northern Palawan archipelago was undertaken to observe the nature of southwest monsoonal aerosol particles in the South China Sea/East Sea (SCS/ES) and Sulu Sea region. Previous analyses suggested this region as a receptor for biomass burning from Borneo and Sumatra for boundary layer air entering the monsoonal trough. Anthropogenic pollution and biofuel emissions are also ubiquitous, as is heavy shipping traffic. Here, we provide an overview of the regional environment during the cruise, a time series of key aerosol and meteorological parameters, and their interrelationships. Overall, this cruise provides a narrative of the processes that control regional aerosol loadings and their possible feedbacks with clouds and precipitation. While 2011 was a moderate El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) La Niña year, higher burning activity and lower precipitation was more typical of neutral conditions. The large-scale aerosol environment was modulated by the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and its associated tropical cyclone (TC) activity in a manner consistent with the conceptual analysis performed by Reid et al. (2012). Advancement of the MJO from phase 3 to 6 with accompanying cyclogenesis during the cruise period strengthened flow patterns in the SCS/ES that modulated aerosol life cycle. TC inflow arms of significant convection sometimes span from Sumatra to Luzon, resulting in very low particle concentrations (minimum condensation nuclei CN elevated carbon monoxide levels were occasionally observed suggesting passage of polluted air masses whose aerosol particles had been rained out. Conversely, two drier periods occurred with higher aerosol particle concentrations originating from Borneo and Southern Sumatra (CN > 3000 cm-3 and non-sea-salt PM2.5 10-25 μg m-3). These cases corresponded with two different

  7. Relationship Between East Asian Winter Monsoon and Summer Monsoon

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YAN Hongming; YANG Hui; YUAN Yuan; LI Chongyin

    2011-01-01

    Using National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Centre for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis data and monthly Hadley Center sea surface temperature (SST) data,and selecting a representative East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) index,this study investigated the relationship between EAWM and East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) using statistical analyses and numerical simulations.Some possible mechanisms regarding this relationship were also explored.Results indicate a close relationship between EAWM and EASM:a strong EAWM led to a strong EASM in the following summer,and a weak EAWM led to a weak EASM in the following summer.Anomalous EAWM has persistent impacts on the variation of SST in the tropical Indian Ocean and the South China Sea,and on the equatorial atmospheric thermal anomalies at both lower and upper levels.Through these impacts,the EAWM influences the land-sea thermal contrast in summer and the low-level atmospheric divergence and convergence over the Indo-Pacific region.It further affects the meridional monsoon circulation and other features of the EASM.Numerical simulations support the results of diagnostic analysis.The study provides useful information for predicting the EASM by analyzing the variations of preceding EAWM and tropical SST.

  8. GMMIP (v1.0) contribution to CMIP6: Global Monsoons Model Inter-comparison Project

    OpenAIRE

    Zhou, Tianjun; Turner, Andrew G.; Kinter, James L.; Qian, Yun; Chen, Xiaolong; Bo WU; Wang, Bin; Liu, Bo; Zou, Liwei; He, Bian

    2016-01-01

    The Global Monsoons Model Inter-comparison Project (GMMIP) has been endorsed by the panel of Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP) as one of the participating model inter-comparison projects (MIPs) in the sixth phase of CMIP (CMIP6). The focus of GMMIP is on monsoon climatology, variability, prediction and projection, which is relevant to four of the “Grand Challenges” proposed by the World Climate Research Programme. At present, 21 international modeling groups are ...

  9. Linkages between the South and East Asian summer monsoons: a review and revisit

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ha, Kyung-Ja; Seo, Ye-Won; Lee, June-Yi; Kripalani, R. H.; Yun, Kyung-Sook

    2017-07-01

    The relationship between the South Asia monsoon (SAM) and the East Asia monsoon (EAM) possibly modulated by both external forcings and internal dynamics has been a long-standing and controversial issue in climate sciences. This study reviews their linkages as revealed in modern records and model simulations during the past, present and future, and provides a comprehensive explanation of the key mechanisms controlling the diversity of the SAM-EAM relationship. Particular attention is paid to several external forcings that modulate the relationship, including El Niño and Southern Oscillation, Indian Ocean Dipole mode (IODM), boreal summer teleconnections, and Eurasian snow extent on intraseasonal to interdecadal timescales. The major focus is placed on two integral views of the inter-connection between the two monsoon systems: one is the positive inter-correlation, which is associated with decaying El Niño and developing Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) warming anomalies; the other is the negative inter-correlation, resulting from developing El Niño and western Pacific SST cooling. The IODM mode also has a delayed impact on the negative connection by modulating Eurasian snow cover. The observed evidence reveals that the recent intensification of the negative relationship is attributable to the strengthening of the zonal SST gradient along the Indian Ocean, western Pacific, and eastern Pacific. Analysis of experiments in the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project further indicates a possibility for the negative linkage to be further enhanced under anthropogenic global warming with considerable interdecadal modulation in mid and late twenty-first century.

  10. High Resolution δ18O and δ13C Records of AMS 14C Dated Stalagmites From Jinlun and Yilingyan Caves in Guangxi, China: Climate Variability and Controlling Factors in the Monsoonal Region During the Past 2300 Years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, H. C.; Lien, W. Y.; Mii, H. S.; Jiang, G. H.; Chou, C. Y.; Chou, P. J.

    2015-12-01

    Jinlun Cave in Mashan County and Yilingyan Cave in Wuming County are ~120km and ~60km north of Nanning in Guangxi Province under influence of both Indian Monsoon and North Western Pacific Monsoon. Several stalagmites have been dated by AMS 14C dating method since 230Th/U is not applicable due to very low U contents. Twenty (20) AMS 14C dates on Stalagmite JL20131005-10 (10-cm long) show "Bomb carbon curve", spanning the past 60 years. Lamination counting further confirms the chronology. Thirty nine (39) AMS 14C dates on Stalagmite JL20131005-12 (33-cm long) reveal 2300-year continuous growth. Stalagmite YLY20130727-12 (10-cm long) from Yilingyan Cave covers a continuous record of past 2300 years. All studied stalagmites in the caves contain low dead carbon fractions. The annual resolution δ18O and δ13C records obtained from the stalagmites allow us to compare the stalagmite δ18O records with the instrumental rainfall and temperature records, Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), and Sunspot variation, etc. The δ18O and δ13C records exhibit relatively good correlation throughout the time, indicating climatic control on vegetation change. Based on the high-resolution δ18O and δ13C records, we interpret that dry climatic conditions and poor vegetation coverage during periods of AD1880~1850, 1700~1600, 1460~1320, 1210~1280, 860~750, 540~420, 300~220, and AD100~0 shown by increased δ18O and δ13C. The δ18O and δ13C were strongly depleted during the Medieval Warm Period (MWP between AD900 and AD1100) and Current Warm Period (CWP, since AD1900), reflecting strongly increased East Asian Summer Monsoon. After AD1900, the δ13C decreased about 6‰, perhaps indicating human impact on surface vegetation. The δ18O records from the study area are comparable to the published WX42B δ18O record of Wanxiang Cave (Zhang et al., 2008) except for the period of AD1400~1850. Our study suggests that AMS 14C dating is an alternative method for

  11. Changes in the in-phase relationship between the Indian and subsequent Australian summer monsoons during the past five decades

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J.-Y. Yu

    2007-10-01

    Full Text Available This study examines the decadal changes in the in-phase relationship between Indian summer monsoon and the subsequent Australian summer monsoon using observational data from 1950–2005. The in-phase relationship is the tendency for a strong Indian summer monsoon to be followed by a strong Australian summer monsoon and vice versa. It is found that the in-phase relationship was weak during the late 1950s and early 1960s, strengthened to a maximum in the early 1970s just before the 1976/77 Pacific climate shift, then declined until the late 1990s. Pacific SST anomalies are noticed to have strong persistence from boreal to austral summer, providing the memory to connect the Indian and subsequent Australian summer monsoon. The simultaneous correlation between the Pacific SST anomalies and the Indian summer monsoon is always strong. It is the weakening and strengthening of the simultaneous correlation between the Australian summer monsoon and the Pacific SST anomalies that contributes to the decadal variations of the in-phase monsoon relation. This study suggests that the interaction between the Australian monsoon and the Pacific Ocean is crucial to tropical climate variability and has experienced significant changes over the past five decades.

  12. Last Glacial to Holocene history of the Indian Monsoon recorded in Andaman Sea sediments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hathorne, E. C.; Yirgaw, D. G.; Ali, S.; Giosan, L.; Collett, T. S.; Nath, B.; Frank, M.

    2013-12-01

    Over 3 billion people live in the area influenced by the Asian monsoon, the rains of which provide vital water resources while posing a risk to human life through flooding. Despite the importance to so many the monsoon is difficult to predict and model, making its future development in a changing global climate uncertain. To help improve models and predictions, histories of monsoon variability beyond the instrumental record are required. The past variability of the Indian Monsoon is mostly known from records of monsoon wind strength over the Arabian Sea. This study uses a unique long sediment core obtained by the drill ship JOIDES Resolution in the Andaman Sea to examine the past variability of Indian Monsoon precipitation on the Indian sub-continent and directly over the ocean. Here we present multi-proxy data examining variations during the last glacial and deglaciation. The radiogenic Sr, Nd, and Pb isotopic composition of the clay fraction (fresh water. References: Antonov, J. I., D. Seidov, T. P. Boyer, R. A. Locarnini, A. V. Mishonov, and H. E. Garcia (2010). World Ocean Atlas 2009 Volume 2: Salinity. S. Levitus, Ed., NOAA Atlas NESDIS 69, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C., 184 pp.

  13. The turbulence underside of the West African Monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lothon, M.; Lohou, F.; Saïd, F.; Campistron, B.; Canut, G.; Couvreux, F.; Durand, P.; Kalapureddy, M. C.; Lee, Y.; Madougou, S.; Serça, D.

    2009-09-01

    momentum transfer across the inversion. The turbulence vertical structure is studied with aircraft measurements all along the monsoon setting, and estimates of entrainment at the PBL inversion were made. Entrainment rate decreases as the monsoon sets and are linked with the position of the inter tropical front. At surface, the fluxes and scalar scales reveal the change of the predominant forcing PBL process from the start of the monsoon setting to the end of the active phase, in relation with the change of the mean vertical structure of the low troposphere along the wet season. This depends on the considered scalar and the possible sink or source at bottom or top. For example, entrainment at the PBL top has a specific signature on water vapour and can significantly impact on the spatial variability and the fluctuations of water vapour within the PBL down to the surface if the inversion reaches the monsoon/SAL interface.

  14. Multi-scale variability of subsurface temperature in the South China Sea

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    高荣珍; 周发琇; 王东晓

    2002-01-01

    Using Morlet wavelet transform and harmonic analysis the multi-scale variability of subsurface temperature in the South China Sea is studied by analyzing one-year (from April 1998 to April 1999) ATLAS mooring data. By wavelet transform, annual and semi-annual cycle as well as intraseasonal variations are found, with different dominance, in subsurface temperature. For annual harmonic cycle, both the downward net surface heat flux and thermocline vertical movement partially control the subsurface temperature variability. For semi-annual cycle and intraseasonal variability, the subsurface temperature variability is mainly linked to the vertical displacement of thermocline.

  15. What drives the global summer monsoon over the past millennium?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liu, Jian [Chinese Academy of Sciences, State Key Laboratory of Lake Science and Environment, Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Nanjing (China); Wang, Bin [University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Meteorology, Honolulu, HI (United States); University of Hawaii at Manoa, International Pacific Research Center, Honolulu, HI (United States); Yim, So-Young; Lee, June-Yi [University of Hawaii at Manoa, International Pacific Research Center, Honolulu, HI (United States); Jhun, Jong-Ghap [Seoul National University, School of Earth and Environmental Sciences/Research Institute of Oceanography, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Ha, Kyung-Ja [Pusan National University, Division of Earth Environmental System, Busan (Korea, Republic of)

    2012-09-15

    The global summer monsoon precipitation (GSMP) provides a fundamental measure for changes in the annual cycle of the climate system and hydroclimate. We investigate mechanisms governing decadal-centennial variations of the GSMP over the past millennium with a coupled climate model's (ECHO-G) simulation forced by solar-volcanic (SV) radiative forcing and greenhouse gases (GHG) forcing. We show that the leading mode of GSMP is a forced response to external forcing on centennial time scale with a globally uniform change of precipitation across all monsoon regions, whereas the second mode represents internal variability on multi-decadal time scale with regional characteristics. The total amount of GSMP varies in phase with the global mean temperature, indicating that global warming is accompanied by amplification of the annual cycle of the climate system. The northern hemisphere summer monsoon precipitation (NHSMP) responds to GHG forcing more sensitively, while the southern hemisphere summer monsoon precipitation (SHSMP) responds to the SV radiative forcing more sensitively. The NHSMP is enhanced by increased NH land-ocean thermal contrast and NH-minus-SH thermal contrast. On the other hand, the SHSMP is strengthened by enhanced SH subtropical highs and the east-west mass contrast between Southeast Pacific and tropical Indian Ocean. The strength of the GSMP is determined by the factors controlling both the NHSMP and SHSMP. Intensification of GSMP is associated with (a) increased global land-ocean thermal contrast, (b) reinforced east-west mass contrast between Southeast Pacific and tropical Indian Ocean, and (c) enhanced circumglobal SH subtropical highs. The physical mechanisms revealed here will add understanding of future change of the global monsoon. (orig.)

  16. The effects of monsoons and climate teleconnections on the Niangziguan Karst Spring discharge in North China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Juan; Hao, Yonghong; Hu, Bill X.; Huo, Xueli; Hao, Pengmei; Liu, Zhongfang

    2017-01-01

    Karst aquifers supply drinking water for 25 % of the world's population, and they are, however, vulnerable to climate change. This study is aimed to investigate the effects of various monsoons and teleconnection patterns on Niangziguan Karst Spring (NKS) discharge in North China for sustainable exploration of the karst groundwater resources. The monsoons studied include the Indian Summer Monsoon, the West North Pacific Monsoon and the East Asian Summer Monsoon. The climate teleconnection patterns explored include the Indian Ocean Dipole, E1 Niño Southern Oscillation, and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. The wavelet transform and wavelet coherence methods are used to analyze the karst hydrological processes in the NKS Basin, and reveal the relations between the climate indices with precipitation and the spring discharge. The study results indicate that both the monsoons and the climate teleconnections significantly affect precipitation in the NKS Basin. The time scales that the monsoons resonate with precipitation are strongly concentrated on the time scales of 0.5-, 1-, 2.5- and 3.5-year, and that climate teleconnections resonate with precipitation are relatively weak and diverged from 0.5-, 1-, 2-, 2.5-, to 8-year time scales, respectively. Because the climate signals have to overcome the resistance of heterogeneous aquifers before reaching spring discharge, with high energy, the strong climate signals (e.g. monsoons) are able to penetrate through aquifers and act on spring discharge. So the spring discharge is more strongly affected by monsoons than the climate teleconnections. During the groundwater flow process, the precipitation signals will be attenuated, delayed, merged, and changed by karst aquifers. Therefore, the coherence coefficients between the spring discharge and climate indices are smaller than those between precipitation and climate indices. Further, the fluctuation of the spring discharge is not coincident with that of precipitation in most

  17. Surface circulation off Somalia and western equatorial Indian Ocean during summer monsoon of 1988 from Geosat altimeter data

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Subrahmanyam, B.; RameshBabu, V.; Murty, V.S.N.; Rao, L.V.G.

    The sea level variability derived from repeating tracks of the Geosat altimeter data during the late phase (August-September) of the summer monsoon of 1988 revealed the presence of multiple meso-scale eddy features with clockwise and anti...

  18. Relationship between summer monsoon rainfall and cyclogenesis over Bay of Bengal during post-monsoon (October–December) season

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Y Sadhuram; K Maneesha

    2016-10-01

    In this study, an attempt has been made to examine the relationship between summer monsoon rainfall (June–September) and the total number of depressions, cyclones and severe cyclones (TNDC) over Bay of Bengal during the post-monsoon (October–December) season. The seasonal rainfall of the subdivisions (located in south India) (referred as rainfall index – RI), is positively and significantly correlated(r = 0.59; significant at >99% level) with the TNDC during the period, 1984–2013. By using the first differences (current season minus previous season), the correlations are enhanced and a remarkably high correlation of 0.87 is observed between TNDC and RI for the recent period, 1993–2013. The average seasonalgenesis potential parameter (GPP) showed a very high correlation of 0.84 with the TNDC. A very high correlation of 0.83 is observed between GPP and RI for the period, 1993–2013. The relative vorticity and mid-tropospheric relative humidity are found to be the dominant terms in GPP. The GPP was 3.5 times higher in above (below) normal RI in which TNDC was 4 (2). It is inferred that RI is playing a keyrole in TNDC by modulating the environmental conditions (low level vorticity and relative humidity) over Bay of Bengal during post-monsoon season which could be seen from the very high correlation of 0.87 (which explains 76% variability in TNDC). For the first time, we show that RI is a precursor for the TNDC over Bay of Bengal during post-monsoon season. Strong westerlies after the SW monsoon seasontransport moisture over the subdivisions towards Bay of Bengal due to cyclonic circulation. This circulation favours upward motion and hence transport moisture vertically to mid-troposphere which causes convective instability and this in turn favour more number of TNDC, under above-normal RI year.

  19. Relationship between summer monsoon rainfall and cyclogenesis over Bay of Bengal during post-monsoon (October-December) season

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sadhuram, Y.; Maneesha, K.

    2016-10-01

    In this study, an attempt has been made to examine the relationship between summer monsoon rainfall (June-September) and the total number of depressions, cyclones and severe cyclones (TNDC) over Bay of Bengal during the post-monsoon (October-December) season. The seasonal rainfall of the subdivisions (located in south India) (referred as rainfall index - RI), is positively and significantly correlated ( r=0.59; significant at >99% level) with the TNDC during the period, 1984-2013. By using the first differences (current season minus previous season), the correlations are enhanced and a remarkably high correlation of 0.87 is observed between TNDC and RI for the recent period, 1993-2013. The average seasonal genesis potential parameter (GPP) showed a very high correlation of 0.84 with the TNDC. A very high correlation of 0.83 is observed between GPP and RI for the period, 1993-2013. The relative vorticity and mid-tropospheric relative humidity are found to be the dominant terms in GPP. The GPP was 3.5 times higher in above (below) normal RI in which TNDC was 4 (2). It is inferred that RI is playing a key role in TNDC by modulating the environmental conditions (low level vorticity and relative humidity) over Bay of Bengal during post-monsoon season which could be seen from the very high correlation of 0.87 (which explains 76% variability in TNDC). For the first time, we show that RI is a precursor for the TNDC over Bay of Bengal during post-monsoon season. Strong westerlies after the SW monsoon season transport moisture over the subdivisions towards Bay of Bengal due to cyclonic circulation. This circulation favours upward motion and hence transport moisture vertically to mid-troposphere which causes convective instability and this in turn favour more number of TNDC, under above-normal RI year.

  20. Relationship between summer monsoon rainfall and cyclogenesis over Bay of Bengal during post-monsoon (October-December) season

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sadhuram, Y.; Maneesha, K.

    2016-09-01

    In this study, an attempt has been made to examine the relationship between summer monsoon rainfall (June-September) and the total number of depressions, cyclones and severe cyclones (TNDC) over Bay of Bengal during the post-monsoon (October-December) season. The seasonal rainfall of the subdivisions (located in south India) (referred as rainfall index - RI), is positively and significantly correlated (r=0.59; significant at >99% level) with the TNDC during the period, 1984-2013. By using the first differences (current season minus previous season), the correlations are enhanced and a remarkably high correlation of 0.87 is observed between TNDC and RI for the recent period, 1993-2013. The average seasonal genesis potential parameter (GPP) showed a very high correlation of 0.84 with the TNDC. A very high correlation of 0.83 is observed between GPP and RI for the period, 1993-2013. The relative vorticity and mid-tropospheric relative humidity are found to be the dominant terms in GPP. The GPP was 3.5 times higher in above (below) normal RI in which TNDC was 4 (2). It is inferred that RI is playing a key role in TNDC by modulating the environmental conditions (low level vorticity and relative humidity) over Bay of Bengal during post-monsoon season which could be seen from the very high correlation of 0.87 (which explains 76% variability in TNDC). For the first time, we show that RI is a precursor for the TNDC over Bay of Bengal during post-monsoon season. Strong westerlies after the SW monsoon season transport moisture over the subdivisions towards Bay of Bengal due to cyclonic circulation. This circulation favours upward motion and hence transport moisture vertically to mid-troposphere which causes convective instability and this in turn favour more number of TNDC, under above-normal RI year.

  1. Late Miocene-Pliocene Asian monsoon intensification linked to Antarctic ice-sheet growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ao, Hong; Roberts, Andrew P.; Dekkers, Mark J.; Liu, Xiaodong; Rohling, Eelco J.; Shi, Zhengguo; An, Zhisheng; Zhao, Xiang

    2016-06-01

    Environmental conditions in one of Earth's most densely populated regions, East Asia, are dominated by the monsoon. While Quaternary monsoon variability is reasonably well understood, pre-Quaternary monsoon variability and dynamics remain enigmatic. In particular, little is known about potential relationships between northern hemispheric monsoon response and major Cenozoic changes in Antarctic ice cover. Here we document long-term East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) intensification through the Late Miocene-Pliocene (∼8.2 to 2.6 Ma), and attribute this to progressive Antarctic glaciation. Our new high-resolution magnetic records of long-term EASM intensification come from the Late Miocene-Pliocene Red Clay sequence on the Chinese Loess Plateau; we identify underlying mechanisms using a numerical climate-model simulation of EASM response to an idealized stepwise increase in Antarctic ice volume. We infer that progressive Antarctic glaciation caused intensification of the cross-equatorial pressure gradient between an atmospheric high-pressure cell over Australia and a low-pressure cell over mid-latitude East Asia, as well as intensification of the cross-equatorial sea-surface temperature (SST) gradient. These combined atmospheric and oceanic adjustments led to EASM intensification. Our findings offer a new and more global perspective on the controls behind long-term Asian monsoon evolution.

  2. Interactive Aspects of the Indian and the African Summer Monsoon Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanjeeva Rao, P.; Sikka, D. R.

    2007-09-01

    This study addresses an understanding of the possible mutual interactions of sub-seasonal variability of the two neighboring regional monsoon systems through data analysis. The NCEP/NCAR re-analysis and OLR data for three years was used to reveal the large-scale organization of convective episodes on synoptic (~5 days) and low frequency (15 50 day) scales. It is found that synoptic scale organization over both the sectors is influenced by the eastward migration of large-scale convective episodes associated with the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) on the low frequency scale. The organization of convection associated with the African monsoon on the synoptic scale is influenced by the pulsatory character of lower mid-troposphere and upper troposphere wind regimes moving westward over the African sector. Over the Indian region formation of low pressure areas and depressions in the monsoon trough occur in an overlapping manner under an envelope of low frequency seasonal oscillation. We have also found some correspondence between the summer monsoon rainfall over tropical North Africa and India on a decadal basis, which would suggest a common mode of multi-decadal variability in the two monsoon systems. The study points out the need to organize simultaneous field campaigns over the Indian and the African monsoon regions so as to bring out observational features of possible interactions between the two neighboring systems, which could then be validated through modeling studies.

  3. Late Miocene-Pliocene Asian monsoon intensification linked to Antarctic ice-sheet growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ao, H.; Roberts, A. P.; Dekkers, M. J.; Liu, X.; Rohling, E. J.; Shi, Z.; An, Z.; Zhao, X.

    2016-12-01

    Environmental conditions in one of Earth's most densely populated regions, East Asia, are dominated by the monsoon. While Quaternary monsoon variability is reasonably well understood, pre-Quaternary monsoon variability and dynamics remain enigmatic. In particular, little is known about potential relationships between northern hemispheric monsoon response and major Cenozoic changes in Antarctic ice cover. Here we document long-term East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) intensification through the Late Miocene-Pliocene (˜8.2 to 2.6 Ma), and attribute this to progressive Antarctic glaciation. Our new high-resolution magnetic records of long-term EASM intensification come from the Late Miocene-Pliocene Red Clay sequence on the Chinese Loess Plateau; we identify underlying mechanisms using a numerical climate-model simulation of EASM response to an idealized stepwise increase in Antarctic ice volume. We infer that progressive Antarctic glaciation caused intensification of the cross-equatorial pressure gradient between an atmospheric high-pressure cell over Australia and a low-pressure cell over mid-latitude East Asia, as well as intensification of the cross-equatorial sea-surface temperature (SST) gradient. These combined atmospheric and oceanic adjustments led to EASM intensification. Our findings offer a new and more global perspective on the controls behind long-term Asian monsoon evolution.

  4. Influences of basic flow on unstable excitation of intraseasonal oscillation in mid-high latitudes

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李崇银; 曹文忠; 李桂龙

    1995-01-01

    The influences of basic flow fields on the unstable excitation of the intraseasonal atmosphericoscillation in the mid-high latitudes are studied by using a simple nonlinear dynamical model.The results showthat the westerly profile has an important effect on unstable modes in the atmosphere;the growth rates andspectrum distributions of the excited unstable modes are different for the different profiles.For the usualwesterly profile patterns in the real atmosphere,the most unstable mode is in the intraseasonal(30—60 d)frequency band.The local intensity and meridional gradient of the westerlies also clearly affect unstablemodes.The consistency of the results in observational data analyses with that in dynamical theory proved thecorrectness and rationalization of the above-mentioned results.

  5. GMMIP (v1.0) contribution to CMIP6: Global Monsoons Model Inter-comparison Project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhou, Tianjun; Turner, Andrew G.; Kinter, James L.; Wang, Bin; Qian, Yun; Chen, Xiaolong; Wu, Bo; Wang, Bin; Liu, Bo; Zou, Liwei; He, Bian

    2016-10-10

    The Global Monsoons Model Inter-comparison Project (GMMIP) has been endorsed by the panel of Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP) as one of the participating model inter-comparison projects (MIPs) in the sixth phase of CMIP (CMIP6). The focus of GMMIP is on monsoon climatology, variability, prediction and projection, which is rel