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Sample records for monitor secular trends

  1. Secular Cycles and Millennial Trends

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrey Korotayev

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available In the current paper we investigate the relation between secular cycles and millennial trends. The tests we have performed suggest that the structure of millennial trends cannot be adequately understood without secular cycles being taken into consideration. At a certain level of analysis millennial trends turn out to be a virtual byproduct of the demographic cycle mechanisms, which turn out to incorporate certain trend-creating mechanisms. Demographic-political cycle models can serve as a basis for the development and testing of models accounting not only for cycles but also for secular trends. In order to do this, we suggest to alter the basic assumptions of the earlier generations of demographic cycle models (that both the carrying capacity of land and the polity size are constant. The variables such as carrying capacity of land, cultural complexity, and empire sizes are actually not constant, but rather experience long-term trend dynamics in the rise, and the new generation of models needs to account for this fact.

  2. PEDIATRIC FITNESS: SECULAR TRENDS AND GEOGRAPHIC VARIABILITY

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    Grant R. Tomkinson

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available DESCRIPTION This book describes and discusses children's physical capacity in terms of aerobic and anaerobic power generation according to secular trends and geographic variability. PURPOSE To discuss the controversial issue of whether present day's children and adolescents are fitter than their equals of the past and whether they are fitter if they live in the more prosperous countries. AUDIENCE Pediatricians, medical practitioners, physical educators, exercise and/or sport scientists, exercise physiologists, personal trainers and graduate students in relevant fields will find this book helpful when dealing with contemporary trends and geographic variability in pediatric fitness. FEATURES The volume starts by examining the general picture on children fitness by the editors. The individual chapter's authors discuses the data gathered since the late 1950s on secular trends and geographic changeability in aerobic and anaerobic pediatric fitness performances of children and adolescents from 23 countries in Africa, Asia, Australasia, Europe, the Middle East and North America. There are chapters proposing that there is proof that there has been a world-wide decline in pediatric aerobic performance in recent decades, relative stability in anaerobic performance, and that the best performing children come from northern and central Europe. In final chapters possible causes to that end are considered, including whether weakening in aerobic performance are the result of distributional or widespread declines, and whether increases in obesity alone can explain the failure in aerobic performance. ASSESSMENT The editors have assembled a volume of Medicine and Sports Science that is necessary and essential reading for all who are interested in understanding and improving the fitness of children. The readers will find useful information in this book on secular trends and geographic variability in pediatric fitness. I believe, the book will serve as a first

  3. Secular trends in blood pressure in children: A systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roulet, Céline; Bovet, Pascal; Brauchli, Thomas; Simeoni, Umberto; Xi, Bo; Santschi, Valérie; Paradis, Gilles; Chiolero, Arnaud

    2016-12-16

    Blood pressure (BP) is expected to have increased over time in children in most countries due to the increasing prevalence of childhood obesity worldwide. The authors conducted a systematic review of studies assessing secular trends in BP in children and adolescents. Of 1739 citations screened, the authors identified 18 studies including 2 042 470 participants examined between 1963 and 2012. Thirteen studies were conducted in high-income countries, five in middle-income countries, and none in low-income countries. The prevalence of overweight or obesity increased in 17 studies and decreased in one study. BP decreased over time in 13 studies, increased in four, and did not change in one. These findings suggest that secular trends in BP do not mirror secular trends in overweight. This implies that other factors mitigate the effect of overweight on BP in children and adolescents.

  4. Obesity in childhood: A secular trend or an epidemic disease?

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    Ernst, Manon A B; Gerver, Willem J M; Simons, Michelle Y G; Jansen, M W J; van der Hoeven, Mark A H B M; Zimmermann, Luc J I

    2013-03-01

    The concern about obesity in children has increased worldwide. The question arises, whether this trend to obesity already starts during the prenatal period and to what extent the increase of weight is related to a secular trend in height. For neonatal data, three studies, performed in The Netherlands, with neonatal data of birth weights were compared. For postnatal data, weight, height and body mass index (BMI) of two nationwide studies, performed in the Netherlands, were analyzed. No differences between birth weights were found between 1970 and 2007. In postnatal data a trend of increasing weight and BMI in both boys and girls starts from five years onwards. The secular trend in height starts from the age of two and a half years onward in both boys and girls. The increase in weight is more pronounced than the increase in height. No prenatal secular trend could be detected in The Netherlands. Postnatal, the secular trend is obvious for weight, height and BMI. The increase in skewness of the weight distribution may be ascribed to a metabolic disturbance of the population. © The Author(s) 2012.

  5. Evidence of secular trend in mandibular pubertal growth.

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    Patcas, Raphael; Wiedemeier, Daniel B; Markic, Goran; Beit, Philipp; Keller, Heidi

    2017-04-20

    During puberty, mandibular growth follows a growth curve comparable to somatic growth. This study aimed to review the relationship between mandibular pubertal peak height velocity (PHV) and skeletal age, and to investigate the possibility of a secular trend. Retrospective analysis was performed of two historical craniofacial growth studies (Denver Growth Study; observational time: 1943-1965, and Zurich Growth Study; observational time: 1982-1984) of healthy untreated subjects. Two mandibular growth measures (Articulare-Pogonion [Ar-Pg], Condylion-Pogonion [Co-Pg]) were retrieved from cephalograms (n: 990) and corresponding skeletal age based on hand-wrist radiographs. Mandibular growth velocity was related to skeletal age, PHV was established by use of cubic smoothing splines and variability was calculated by bootstrap resampling for every growth study and gender separately. Sexual dimorphism in mandibular growth was apparent in both cohorts. In subjects of the Denver Growth Study, mandibular PHV occurred at a more advanced skeletal age than in subjects of the Zurich Growth Study. This trend was more pronounced in males, for whom PHV of Co-Pg shifted from 14.4 to 13.8 years and of Ar-Pg from 14.6 to 13.7 years. This tendency was more subtle in females: PHV of Co-Pg shifted from 12.7 to 12.4 years and of Ar-Pg from 12.6 to 11.8 years. Mandibular growth appears to be subject to a secular trend. When related to skeletal age, this secular trend seems to be more accentuated than the established secular trend for somatic pubertal growth.

  6. Secular trends in family dinner frequency among adolescents

    OpenAIRE

    Walton, Kathryn; Kleinman, Ken P.; Rifas-Shiman, Sheryl L; Horton, Nicholas J; Matthew W. Gillman; Field, Alison E.; S. Bryn Austin; Neumark-Sztainer, Dianne; Haines, Jess

    2016-01-01

    Background: Eating meals, particularly dinner, with family members has been found to be associated with improved dietary intake, lower prevalence of disordered eating behaviors, lower levels of substance abuse, and improved academic outcomes among adolescents. Limited research has examined how the frequency of family meals has changed over time. The objective of this study was to examine secular trends in family dinner frequency over a 12-year period using a large, nation-wide sample of adole...

  7. Socioeconomic development and secular trend in height in China.

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    Zong, Xin-Nan; Li, Hui; Wu, Hua-Hong; Zhang, Ya-Qin

    2015-12-01

    The objective of this study was to examine the effect of socioeconomic development on secular trend in height among children and adolescents in China. Body height and spermarcheal/menarcheal ages were obtained from two periodic large-scale national representative surveys in China between 1975 and 2010. Chinese socioeconomic development indicators were obtained from the United Nations world population prospects. The effects of plausible determinants were assessed by partial least-squares regression. The average height of children and adolescents improved in tandem with socioeconomic development, without any tendency to plateau. The increment of height trend presented larger around puberty than earlier or later ages. The partial least-squares regressions with gross national income, life expectancy and spermarcheal/menarcheal age accounted for increment of height trend from 88.3% to 98.3% for males and from 82.9% to 97.3% for females in adolescence. Further, through the analysis of the variable importance for projection, the contributions of gross national income and life expectancy on height increment were confirmed to be significant in childhood and adolescence, and the contribution of spermarcheal/menarcheal age was superior to both of them in adolescence. We concluded that positive secular trend in height in China was significantly associated with socioeconomic status (GNI as indicator) and medical and health conditions (life expectancy as indicator). Earlier onset of spermarche and menarche proved to be an important role in larger increment of the trend over time of height at puberty for a population.

  8. Secular trends in the geologic record and the supercontinent cycle

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    Bradley, Dwight C.

    2011-01-01

    Geologic secular trends are used to refine the timetable of supercontinent assembly, tenure, and breakup. The analysis rests on what is meant by the term supercontinent, which here is defined broadly as a grouping of formerly dispersed continents. To avoid the artificial pitfall of an all-or-nothing definition, quantitative measures of “supercontinentality” are presented: the number of continents, and the area of the largest continent, which both can be gleaned from global paleogeographic maps for the Phanerozoic. For the secular trends approach to be viable in the deep past when the very existence of supercontinents is debatable and reconstructions are fraught with problems, it must first be calibrated in the Phanerozoic against the well-constrained Pangea supercontinent cycle. The most informative geologic variables covering both the Phanerozoic and Precambrian are the abundances of passive margins and of detrital zircons. Both fluctuated with size of the largest continent during the Pangea supercontinent cycle and can be quantified back to the Neoarchean. The tenure of Pangea was a time represented in the rock record by few zircons and few passive margins. Thus, previously documented minima in the abundance of detrital zircons (and orogenic granites) during the Precambrian (Condie et al., 2009a, Gondwana Research 15, 228–242) now can be more confidently interpreted as marking the tenures of supercontinents. The occurrences of carbonatites, granulites, eclogites, and greenstone-belt deformation events also appear to bear the imprint of Precambrian supercontinent cyclicity. Together, these secular records are consistent with the following scenario. The Neoarchean continental assemblies of Superia and Sclavia broke up at ca. 2300 and ca. 2090 Ma, respectively. Some of their fragments collided to form Nuna by about 1750 Ma; Nuna then grew by lateral accretion of juvenile arcs during the Mesoproterozoic, and was involved in a series of collisions at ca. 1000 Ma

  9. Secular trends in the geologic record and the supercontinent cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bradley, Dwight C.

    2011-09-01

    Geologic secular trends are used to refine the timetable of supercontinent assembly, tenure, and breakup. The analysis rests on what is meant by the term supercontinent, which here is defined broadly as a grouping of formerly dispersed continents. To avoid the artificial pitfall of an all-or-nothing definition, quantitative measures of "supercontinentality" are presented: the number of continents, and the area of the largest continent, which both can be gleaned from global paleogeographic maps for the Phanerozoic. For the secular trends approach to be viable in the deep past when the very existence of supercontinents is debatable and reconstructions are fraught with problems, it must first be calibrated in the Phanerozoic against the well-constrained Pangea supercontinent cycle. The most informative geologic variables covering both the Phanerozoic and Precambrian are the abundances of passive margins and of detrital zircons. Both fluctuated with size of the largest continent during the Pangea supercontinent cycle and can be quantified back to the Neoarchean. The tenure of Pangea was a time represented in the rock record by few zircons and few passive margins. Thus, previously documented minima in the abundance of detrital zircons (and orogenic granites) during the Precambrian (Condie et al., 2009a, Gondwana Research 15, 228-242) now can be more confidently interpreted as marking the tenures of supercontinents. The occurrences of carbonatites, granulites, eclogites, and greenstone-belt deformation events also appear to bear the imprint of Precambrian supercontinent cyclicity. Together, these secular records are consistent with the following scenario. The Neoarchean continental assemblies of Superia and Sclavia broke up at ca. 2300 and ca. 2090 Ma, respectively. Some of their fragments collided to form Nuna by about 1750 Ma; Nuna then grew by lateral accretion of juvenile arcs during the Mesoproterozoic, and was involved in a series of collisions at ca. 1000 Ma to

  10. A PERSISTING SECULAR TREND FOR BODY MEASUREMENTS IN DUTCH CHILDREN - THE OOSTERWOLDE-II STUDY

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    GERVER, WJM; DEBRUIN, R; DRAYER, NM

    1994-01-01

    To investigate whether the secular trend for growth in Dutch children still exists, the Oosterwolde I study of 1980 was repeated in 1989. A persisting secular trend was visible for height while the z scores of body proportions show no change during the past 10 years, which suggests that there is no

  11. On the correlation of nonlinear variables containing secular trend variations: numerical experiments

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Shi Neng; Yi Yan-Ming; Gu Jun-Qiang; Xia Dong-Dong

    2006-01-01

    Due to global warming, the general circulation, underlying surfaces characteristics, and geophysical and meteorological elements all show evident secular trends. This paper points out that when calculating the correlation of two variables containing their own obvious secular trends, the interannual correlation characteristics between the two variables may be distorted (overestimated or underestimated). Numerical experiments in this paper show that if two variables have opposite secular trends, the correlation coefficient between the two variables is reduced (the positive correlation is underestimated, or the negative correlation is overestimated); and if the two variables have the same sign of secular trends, the correlation coefficient between the two variables is increased (the positive correlation is overestimated,or the negative correlation is underestimated). Numerical experiments also suggest that the effect of secular trends on the interannual correlation of the two variables is interchangeable, that is to say, as long as the values of the two trends are not changed, the two variables interchange their positions, and the effect of the secular trends on the interannual correlation coefficient of the two variables remains the same. If the two variables have the same-(opposite-) sign trends,the effect of secular trends on the interannual correlation coefficient is more (less) distinctive. A meteorological example is given.

  12. Secular trends in new childhood epidemics: insights from evolutionary medicine.

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    Brüne, Martin; Hochberg, Ze'ev

    2013-10-21

    In the last few decades, pediatric medicine has observed a dramatic increase in the prevalence of hitherto rare illnesses, among which obesity, diabetes, allergies and other autoimmune diseases stand out. In addition, secular trends towards earlier onset of puberty and sexual activity contribute to the psychological problems of youth and adolescents. All this has occurred in spite of the improved health care provision for children, yet traditional concepts of medicine have failed to explain these new "epidemics". A recent conference and science school of the European Society of Paediatric Endocrinology (ESPE) in Acre, Israel, has taken up this challenge. Experts across disciplines including medicine, anthropology and developmental psychology discussed potential causes of childhood ill-health from an evolutionary point-of-view. Seen from an evolutionary vantage point, the "epidemics" of childhood obesity, diabetes and psychological dysfunction appear, in part, to be related to a mismatch between ancestral adaptations and novel environmental contingencies. These include changing exposures to pathogens, which impact on the function of the immune system, as well as changing patterns of parenting, which influence the timing of puberty and the risk for developing psychopathology.

  13. A sensitivity analysis of secular trends in risk factors and mortality based on cohort studies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Prescott, E; Andersen, P K; Osler, M;

    1999-01-01

    Because of a "healthy responder effect," secular trends in mortality based on cohort studies may be biased if based on responders only. Because responders are selected on the basis of their health at study entry, subjects just entering a study are not comparable with subjects who have been...... secular trend in mortality. By applying different assumptions regarding smoking habits among nonresponders, we explored the effect of the assumptions on the adjusted secular trend in mortality. We conclude that secular trends in mortality based on responders in a cohort study are likely to be biased...... biased. In a sensitivity analysis, the observed person-years of nonresponders were distributed among six categories of persons with respect to smoking behavior (never-smokers; ex-smokers; noninhaling current smokers; and current smokers of 1-14, 15-24, and > or =25 gm tobacco per day) according to preset...

  14. Secular trends in family dinner frequency among adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walton, Kathryn; Kleinman, Ken P; Rifas-Shiman, Sheryl L; Horton, Nicholas J; Gillman, Matthew W; Field, Alison E; Austin, S Bryn; Neumark-Sztainer, Dianne; Haines, Jess

    2016-01-22

    Eating meals, particularly dinner, with family members has been found to be associated with improved dietary intake, lower prevalence of disordered eating behaviors, lower levels of substance abuse, and improved academic outcomes among adolescents. Limited research has examined how the frequency of family meals has changed over time. The objective of this study was to examine secular trends in family dinner frequency over a 12-year period using a large, nation-wide sample of adolescents. Using data from two cohorts of the Growing up Today study (GUTS; n = 18,075 observations for 14,79,714 and 15 year olds), we compared family dinner frequency among 14-15-year-olds in 1996 (GUTS1) through 2008 (GUTS2) and rate of change in family dinner frequency from 1996 to 1998 (GUTS1) and 2004-2008 (GUTS2). We fit logistic models using generalized estimating equations with independence working correlation and empirical variance to account for correlation within individual and between siblings. From 1996 to 2008, the number of family dinners per week among males decreased from 5.3 to 4.6 (p = 0.04) and among females from 5.0 to 4.4 (p = 0.03). We found that the rate of decline in frequency of family meals was consistent in GUTS1 (1996-1998) and GUTS2 (2004-2008) among both males and females. From 1996 to 2008, frequency of family dinners decreased among adolescents. Future research should explore reasons for this decline as well as strategies to increase family meals among adolescents.

  15. Secular Trending in Select Search Engines: The Ups & Downs in Results

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peerzada Mohammad IqbaL

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The paper is the outcome of a research conducted on four search engines viz., Google, Bing, Yahoo, and Baidu to evaluate the trending in their results. The objectives were accompanied by collection of series of data using simple keyword “Reprints” in the field of Library and Information Science. 50 days of projected trend was compared from 100 days of data series, collected on daily basis. The evaluation reveal that Bing shows a positive secular trend while Google, Yahoo! and Baidu show a downward or negative secular trend.

  16. Ten-Year Secular Trends in Youth Violence: Results from the Philadelphia Youth Risk Behavior Survey 2003-2013

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pool, Andrew C.; Patterson, Freda; Luna, Ingrid Y.; Hohl, Bernadette; Bauer, Katherine W.

    2017-01-01

    Background: Youth violence reduction is a public health priority, yet few studies have examined secular trends in violence among urban youth, who may be particularly vulnerable to numerous forms of violence. This study examines 10-year secular trends in the prevalence of violence-related behaviors among Philadelphia high school students. Methods:…

  17. Secular spring rainfall variability at local scale over Ethiopia: trend and associated dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsidu, Gizaw Mengistu

    2016-07-01

    Spring rainfall secular variability is studied using observations, reanalysis, and model simulations. The joint coherent spatio-temporal secular variability of gridded monthly gauge rainfall over Ethiopia, ERA-Interim atmospheric variables and sea surface temperature (SST) from Hadley Centre Sea Ice and SST (HadISST) data set is extracted using multi-taper method singular value decomposition (MTM-SVD). The contemporaneous associations are further examined using partial Granger causality to determine presence of causal linkage between any of the climate variables. This analysis reveals that only the northwestern Indian Ocean secular SST anomaly has direct causal links with spring rainfall over Ethiopia and mean sea level pressure (MSLP) over Africa inspite of the strong secular covariance of spring rainfall, SST in parts of subtropical Pacific, Atlantic, Indian Ocean and MSLP. High secular rainfall variance and statistically significant linear trend show consistently that there is a massive decline in spring rain over southern Ethiopia. This happened concurrently with significant buildup of MSLP over East Africa, northeastern Africa including parts of the Arabian Peninsula, some parts of central Africa and SST warming over all ocean basins with the exception of the ENSO regions. The east-west pressure gradient in response to the Indian Ocean warming led to secular southeasterly winds over the Arabian Sea, easterly over central Africa and equatorial Atlantic. These flows weakened climatological northeasterly flow over the Arabian Sea and southwesterly flow over equatorial Atlantic and Congo basins which supply moisture into the eastern Africa regions in spring. The secular divergent flow at low level is concurrent with upper level convergence due to the easterly secular anomalous flow. The mechanisms through which the northwestern Indian Ocean secular SST anomaly modulates rainfall are further explored in the context of East Africa using a simplified atmospheric

  18. Examination of US puberty-timing data from 1940 to 1994 for secular trends

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Euling, Susan Y; Herman-Giddens, Marcia E; Lee, Peter A

    2008-01-01

    Whether children, especially girls, are entering and progressing through puberty earlier today than in the mid-1900s has been debated. Secular trend analysis, based on available data, is limited by data comparability among studies in different populations, in different periods of time, and using...

  19. Examination of US puberty-timing data from 1940 to 1994 for secular trends

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Euling, Susan Y; Herman-Giddens, Marcia E; Lee, Peter A

    2008-01-01

    Whether children, especially girls, are entering and progressing through puberty earlier today than in the mid-1900s has been debated. Secular trend analysis, based on available data, is limited by data comparability among studies in different populations, in different periods of time, and using ...

  20. Secular Trends in Neuroblastoma Mortality Before and After the Cessation of National Mass Screening in Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katanoda, Kota; Hayashi, Kunihiko; Yamamoto, Keiko; Sobue, Tomotaka

    2009-01-01

    Background In 2003, the Japanese government halted the national mass screening program for neuroblastoma (NB), which had been running since the mid-1980s. It is not known whether the NB mortality rate subsequently increased or decreased. Methods Utilizing vital statistics data from 1980 through 2006, we analyzed the secular trends in NB mortality by using cancer of the adrenal gland as a surrogate. We examined the validity of this substitution by comparing the results with data from death certificates. Using a joinpoint regression model, we examined the trends in age-specific mortality rates by calendar year and cumulative mortality rates by birth year. The cumulative mortality rate was analyzed for age under 1 or 2 years for infants born after the cessation of the mass screening program. Results The number of deaths from cancer of the adrenal gland was closely correlated with the number of deaths from NB. Significant decreases in the mortality rate were observed from 1980 through 2006 by calendar year for those aged under 1 year, 1 to 4 years, and 5 to 9 years. The cumulative mortality rates by birth year also significantly decreased from the 1980 birth cohort. Although the cumulative mortality rates under the age of 2 appear to have increased after the 2003 birth cohort, the change was not statistically significant. Conclusions No significant increase in the NB mortality rate was detected after the cessation of the mass screening program in Japan. However, continuous monitoring is still needed to fully evaluate this health policy decision. PMID:19652443

  1. Secular trends in menarcheal age in India-evidence from the Indian human development survey.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Praveen Kumar Pathak

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Evidence from a number of countries in Europe and North America point towards the secular declining trend in menarcheal age with considerable spatial variations over the past two centuries. Similar trends were reported in several developing countries from Asia, Africa and Latin America. However, data corroborating any secular trend in the menarcheal age of the Indian population remained sparse and inadequately verified. METHODS: We examined secular trends, regional heterogeneity and association of socioeconomic, anthropometric and contextual factors with menarcheal age among ever-married women (15-49 years in India. Using the pseudo cohort data approach, we fit multiple linear regression models to estimate secular trends in menarcheal age of 91394 ever-married women using the Indian Human Development Survey. RESULTS: The mean age at menarche among Indian women was 13.76 years (95 % CI: 13.75, 13.77 in 2005. It declined by three months from 13.83 years (95% CI: 13.81, 13.85 among women born prior to 1955-1964, to nearly 13.62 years (95% CI: 13.58, 13.67 among women born during late 1985-1989. However, these aggregate national figures mask extensive spatial heterogeneity as mean age at menarche varied from 15.0 years in Himachal Pradesh during 1955-1964 (95% CI: 14.89-15.11 to about 12.1 years in Assam (95% CI: 11.63-12.56 during 1985-1989. CONCLUSION: The regression analysis established a reduction of nearly one month per decade, suggesting a secular decline in age at menarche among Indian women. Notably, the menarcheal age was significantly associated with the area of residence, geographic region, linguistic groups, educational attainment, wealth status, caste and religious affiliations among Indian women.

  2. Secular Trends in Menarcheal Age in India-Evidence from the Indian Human Development Survey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pathak, Praveen Kumar; Tripathi, Niharika; Subramanian, S. V.

    2014-01-01

    Background Evidence from a number of countries in Europe and North America point towards the secular declining trend in menarcheal age with considerable spatial variations over the past two centuries. Similar trends were reported in several developing countries from Asia, Africa and Latin America. However, data corroborating any secular trend in the menarcheal age of the Indian population remained sparse and inadequately verified. Methods We examined secular trends, regional heterogeneity and association of socioeconomic, anthropometric and contextual factors with menarcheal age among ever-married women (15–49 years) in India. Using the pseudo cohort data approach, we fit multiple linear regression models to estimate secular trends in menarcheal age of 91394 ever-married women using the Indian Human Development Survey. Results The mean age at menarche among Indian women was 13.76 years (95 % CI: 13.75, 13.77) in 2005. It declined by three months from 13.83 years (95% CI: 13.81, 13.85) among women born prior to 1955–1964, to nearly 13.62 years (95% CI: 13.58, 13.67) among women born during late 1985–1989. However, these aggregate national figures mask extensive spatial heterogeneity as mean age at menarche varied from 15.0 years in Himachal Pradesh during 1955–1964 (95% CI: 14.89–15.11) to about 12.1 years in Assam (95% CI: 11.63–12.56) during 1985–1989. Conclusion The regression analysis established a reduction of nearly one month per decade, suggesting a secular decline in age at menarche among Indian women. Notably, the menarcheal age was significantly associated with the area of residence, geographic region, linguistic groups, educational attainment, wealth status, caste and religious affiliations among Indian women. PMID:25369507

  3. [Growth secular trend during early childhood in Northern Spain].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oves Suárez, Beatriz; Samper Villagrasa, M Pilar; Escartín Madurga, Laura; Álvarez Sauras, M Luisa; Moreno Aznar, Luis A; Labayen Goñi, Idoia; Rodríguez Martínez, Gerardo

    2013-11-01

    Objetivo: Comprobar si existen cambios seculares en el patrón de crecimiento de los niños caucásicos en el norte de España hasta los 2 años de edad, en comparación con los estándares poblacionales disponibles de hace 25-30 años. Material y métodos: Estudio longitudinal de una cohorte representativa de la población de niños aragoneses caucásicos nacidos a término (n=1.099). Se han calculado las puntuaciones típicas (Pt) para el peso, longitud e índice de masa corporal (IMC) según dos estándares disponibles de hace 25-30 años (Sobradillo et al. y Ferrández et al.). Resultados: Las Pt medias de peso, longitud e IMC de la muestra varían significativamente según el estándar empleado en todas las edades estudiadas (p≤0,001). Al nacimiento, la Pt media para el peso es -0,36(IC95%:-0,42;-0,30) respecto a los estándares de Sobradillo et al. y -0,26 (IC95%:-0,29;0,33) respecto a los de Ferrández et al. Estas diferencias se atenúan paulatinamente haciéndose mínimas a los 2 años (Pt media para el peso -0,08 y -0,05; respectivamente). A los 2 años de edad, la Pt media para la longitud es +0,54(IC95%:0,48;0,61) respecto a Sobradillo et al. y +0,19(IC95%:0,12;0,25) respecto a Ferrández et al. El IMC de nuestra muestra presenta valores inferiores respecto a los estándares seleccionados. Conclusión: El peso al nacer de los niños caucásicos del norte de España en la actualidad es menor que en la generación anterior. A los 2 años de edad se comprueba una aceleración secular de la longitud pero con un peso similar, lo que conlleva valores inferiores de IMC.

  4. On the Secular Trend in Snow Accumulation from the Mount Logan Ice Core

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    Moore, K.; Alverson, K.; Holdsworth, G.

    2001-12-01

    We present an analysis of a 250 year long annually resolved record of snow accumulation from a high altitude site on Mount Logan in the Yukon Territory of Canada. Previous work has shown that the snow accumulation time series exhibits a statistically significant correlation with indices of ENSO activity. In addition, snow accumulation at the site is associated with anomalies in both the tropospheric and land temperatures over Northwestern North America. Over the 250 years of the time series, annual snow accumulation at the site has increased by approximately 15%. Using a variety of statistical tests, we show that this secular trend is highly significant especially during the period from 1800 onwards. We will discuss the implications that this secular trend has on variability in ENSO activity and on trends in surface and tropospheric temperatures since 1800.

  5. Effect of Energy Under-Reporting on Secular Trends of Dietary Patterns in a Mediterranean Population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Funtikova, Anna N.; Gomez, Santiago F.; Fitó, Montserrat; Elosua, Roberto; Benítez-Arciniega, Alejandra A.; Schröder, Helmut

    2015-01-01

    Background Diet is an important factor in the prevention of chronic diseases. Analysis of secular trends of dietary patterns can be biased by energy under-reporting. Therefore, the objective of the present study was to analyse the impact of energy under-reporting on dietary patterns and secular trends in dietary patterns defined by cluster analysis. Design and methods Two cross-sectional population-based surveys were conducted in Spain, in 2000 and 2005, with 3058 and 6352 participants, respectively, aged 25 to 74 years. Validated questionnaire was used to collect dietary data. Cluster analysis was run separately for all participants, plausible energy reporters (PER), and energy under-reporters (EUR) to define dietary patterns. Results Three clusters, “healthy”, “mixed” and “western”, were identified for both surveys. The “mixed” cluster was the predominant cluster in both surveys. Excluding EUR reduced the proportion of the “mixed” cluster up to 6.40% in the 2000 survey; this caused secular trend increase in the prevalence of the “mixed” pattern. Cross-classification analysis of all participants and PER’ data showed substantial agreement in cluster assignments: 68.7% in 2000 and 84.4% in 2005. Excluding EUR did not cause meaningful (≥15%) changes in the “healthy” pattern. It provoked changes in consumption of some food groups in the “mixed” and “western” patterns: mainly decreases of unhealthy foods within the 2000 and increases of unhealthy foods within the 2005 surveys. Secular trend effects of EUR were similar to those within the 2005 survey. Excluding EUR reversed the direction of secular trends in consumption of several food groups in PER in the “mixed” and “western” patterns. Conclusions EUR affected distribution of participants between dietary patterns within and between surveys, secular trends in food group consumption and amount of food consumed in all, but not in the “healthy” pattern. Our findings

  6. Secular trends of macrosomia in southeast China, 1994-2005

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-01

    Background The rate of macrosomia (birth weight≥4, 000 g) increased over the past four decades in many parts of the world. Macrosomia is associated not only with higher risks of maternal and neonatal complications but also with health risks in adulthood. We examined trends in neonatal macrosomia and large-for-gestational-age (LGA) births among singleton, live, term and postterm births (≥37 complete weeks' gestation) in southeast China from 1994 to 2005 and explored possible causes of the temporal trends. Methods Data from Perinatal Health Care Surveillance System in 12 cities and counties in southeast China were analyzed for trends in birth weight, neonatal macrosomia and LGA from 1994 to 2005. A total of 594, 472 singleton live births were included. We conducted multiple logistic regression analyses to relate these trends to changes in maternal and pregnancy characteristics. Results The rate of macrosomia rose from 6.00% in 1994 to 8.49% in 2000 and then levelled off to 7.83% in 2005. Similar trends were observed in mean birth weight. The incidence of LGA births increased continuously from 13.72% in 1994 to 18.08% in 2000, but the LGA rate remained relatively stable from 2002 to 2005. There was a decrease in gestational age and a significant increase in frequency of prelabor caesarean delivery from 1994 to 2005. In an adjusted multivariable model, the increase in LGA rate from 1994 to 2000 was associated with increasing net gestational weight gain, maternal age, maternal height and maternal education. But they didn't fully explain the increase. The trends of 2002-2005 LGA declined after adjusted for maternal and neonatal characteristics. Conclusions In southeast China, the incidence of macrosomia increased from 1994 to 2000 was mainly related to increasing net gestational weight gain. The incidence of macrosomia has levelled off in recent years partly due to increasing use of prelabor caesarean delivery and earlier delivery and partly due to moderation of

  7. Secular trend of dental development in Dutch children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vucic, Strahinja; de Vries, Esther; Eilers, Paul H C; Willemsen, Sten P; Kuijpers, Mette A R; Prahl-Andersen, Birte; Jaddoe, Vincent W V; Hofman, Albert; Wolvius, Eppo B; Ongkosuwito, Edwin M

    2014-09-01

    Many studies have established dental age standards for different populations; however, very few studies have investigated whether dental development is stable over time on a population level. Therefore, the aim of this study was to analyze changes in dental maturity in Dutch children born between 1961 and 2004. We used 2,655 dental panoramic radiographs of 2- to 16-year-old Dutch children from studies performed in three major cities in the Netherlands. Based on a trend in children born between 1961 and 1994, we predicted that a child of a certain age and gender born in 1963 achieved the same dental maturity on average, 1.5 years later than a child of the same age born 40 years later. After adjusting for the birth year of a child in the analysis, the regression coefficient of the city variable was reduced by 56.6% and it remained statistically significant. The observed trend from 1961 to 1994 was extrapolated to 9- to 10-year-old children born in 2002-2004, and validation with the other samples of children with the same characteristics showed that 95.9%-96.8% of the children had dental maturity within the 95% of the predicted range. Dental maturity score was significantly and positively associated with the year of birth, gender, and age in Dutch children, indicating a trend in earlier dental development during the observation period, 1961-2004. These findings highlight the necessity of taking the year of birth into account when assessing dental development within a population with a wider time span.

  8. Secular trends in fruit intake among Danish schoolchildren, 1988 to 2006: Changing habits or methodological artefacts?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Due Pernille

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Intermittent monitoring of fruit and vegetable intake at the population level is essential for the evaluation and planning of national dietary interventions. Yet, only a limited number of studies on time trends in fruit and vegetable intake among children and adolescents have been published internationally. In Denmark, national comprehensive campaigns to enhance fruit and vegetable consumption were initiated in 2001. This paper describes secular trends in fruit intake among Danish adolescents by six comparable school surveys from 1988 to 2006. The paper demonstrates and discusses the consequences of measurement changes introduced in long-term trend analyses. Methods We used Danish data from the international Health Behaviour in School-aged Children (HBSC study collected in 1988, 1991, 1994, 1998, 2002 and 2006. Analyses were conducted on comparable questionnaire-based data from students aged 11, 13 and 15 total (n = 23,871 from a random sample of schools. Data on fruit intake were measured by a food frequency questionnaire. Due to changes in number of response categories beween surveys, different cut-points were analysed. Results The prevalence of students eating fruit at least once daily ranged from 78.3% among 13-year-old girls in 1988 to 17.3% among 15-year-old boys in 2002. Based on the six data collections, analyses of trends showed a significant decrease in prevalence of students eating fruit at least once daily from 1988 to 2002 (all p-values Conclusion Fruit consumption among Danish schoolchildren decreased from 1988 to 2002 with an increase since 2002. We suggest that the increase may be attributable to a nation-wide initiative conducted in Denmark since 2001 to increase the intake of fruit and vegetables in the population. Still, the results imply that a substantial proportion of Danish schoolchildren do not meet the nationally recommended daily intake of fruit. Our analyses indicate that the observed trends are not

  9. Secular trends in opioid prescribing in the USA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pezalla EJ

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Edmund J Pezalla,1 David Rosen,2 Jennifer G Erensen,2 J David Haddox,2,3 Tracy J Mayne2 1Bioconsult, LLC, Wethersfield, 2Purdue Pharma L.P., Stamford, CT, 3Public Health and Community Medicine, Tufts University School of Medicine, Boston, MA, USA Abstract: Opioid abuse and misuse in the USA is a public health crisis. The use of prescription opioid analgesics increased substantially from 2002 through 2010, then plateaued and began to decrease in 2011. This study examined prescriptions of branded and generic immediate- and extended-release opioid analgesics from 1992 to 2016. This was juxtaposed against state and federal policies designed to decrease overutilization and abuse, as well as the launch of new opioid products, including opioids with abuse-deterrent properties (OADPs. The data indicate that these health policies, including the utilization and reimbursement of OADPs, have coincided with decreased opioid utilization. The hypothesis that OADPs will paradoxically increase opioid prescribing is not supported. Keywords: OADP, prescription, utilization trends, legislation, opioids

  10. Secular trends on traditional ecological knowledge: An analysis of different domains of knowledge among Tsimane' men.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reyes-García, Victoria; Luz, Ana C; Gueze, Maximilien; Paneque-Gálvez, Jaime; Macía, Manuel J; Orta-Martínez, Martí; Pino, Joan

    2013-10-01

    Empirical research provides contradictory evidence of the loss of traditional ecological knowledge across societies. Researchers have argued that culture, methodological differences, and site-specific conditions are responsible for such contradictory evidences. We advance and test a third explanation: the adaptive nature of traditional ecological knowledge systems. Specifically, we test whether different domains of traditional ecological knowledge experience different secular changes and analyze trends in the context of other changes in livelihoods. We use data collected among 651 Tsimane' men (Bolivian Amazon). Our findings indicate that different domains of knowledge follow different secular trends. Among the domains of knowledge analyzed, medicinal and wild edible knowledge appear as the most vulnerable; canoe building and firewood knowledge seem to remain constant across generations; whereas house building knowledge seems to experience a slight secular increase. Our analysis reflects on the adaptive nature of traditional ecological knowledge, highlighting how changes in this knowledge system respond to the particular needs of a society in a given point of time.

  11. Trend Monitoring and Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-03-11

    athletes’ names, and matching sports’ name. 2) Entertainment: trending topics that describe celebrities, art and cultures, travel , movies, books...trending topics that describe home, lifestyle- leisure , and service-shopping 8) Obituaries: trending topics that describe crime, law, unrest, conflicts

  12. Effects of socioeconomic factors on secular trends in suicide in Japan, 1953-86.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Motohashi, Y

    1991-04-01

    The effects of socioeconomic factors on secular trends in suicide rates in Japan for the periods 1953-72 and 1973-86 were investigated using twelve socioeconomic indicators. Multiple regression analysis showed that the socioeconomic indicators affecting suicide rates were not identical in the two periods. The rates in both sexes in 1953-72 were closely related to unemployment rate and the labour force but between 1973 and 1986, divorce rate and the proportion in tertiary industry were most influential. The changes reflect the socioeconomic changes in industrial structure in Japan in transition from an industrial to a service economy.

  13. Secular trend in the incidence of hip fracture in Catalonia, Spain, 2003-2014.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pueyo-Sánchez, Maria-Jesús; Larrosa, Marta; Suris, Xavier; Casado, Enrique; Auleda, Jaume; Fusté, Josep; Ortún, Vicente

    2017-03-01

    to describe the secular trend and seasonal variation in the incidence of hip fracture (HF) over 12 years (2003-2014) in Catalonia, the community with the highest incidence of HF in Spain. data about age, gender, type of fracture and month of hospitalisation among patients aged 65 years and older discharged with a diagnosis of HF were collected. Crude and age-standardised annual incidence rate were reckoned. To analyse HF trend, the age/sex-adjusted average annual change in incidence (incidence rate ratio, IRR) was calculated. we identified 100,110 HF in the period, with an increase of 16.9% (women 13.4%; men 28.4%). Trochanteric fractures were the most frequent (55.8%). The crude incidence rate (per 100,000 population) decreased from 677.2 (95% confidence interval (95% CI) 662.0-692.7) to 657.6 (95% CI 644.0-671.5). The standardised incidence rate decreased from 754.0 (95% CI 738.6-769.3) to 641.5 (95% CI 627.7-655.3), with a sharp decrease in women (-16.8%) while it was stable in men. The incidence by type of fracture was stable. The trend throughout the period showed a slight decrease with IRR 0.99 (95% CI 0.98-0.99; P = 0.025). The incidence was stable in the oldest group (+85 years), while there was a downward trend in the younger groups. A significant seasonal pattern was observed, with more cases in winter and less in summer (spring as reference). the secular trend reveals a decreasing incidence of HF although the absolute number has increased in the last 12 years in Catalonia. Trochanteric fractures were the most prevalent and a seasonal pattern was observed, with more cases in winter.

  14. Secular trends in body mass index measurements in preschool children from the City of Aachen, Germany.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herpertz-Dahlmann, Beate; Geller, Frank; Böhle, Corinna; Khalil, Corinna; Trost-Brinkhues, Gabriele; Ziegler, Andreas; Hebebrand, Johannes

    2003-02-01

    On account of the recent increases in prevalence of childhood obesity in Western countries, the present study tried to verify a secular trend for increasing body mass index (BMI; kg/m(2)) in preschool children in Aachen, Germany. The total sample was based on weight and height data for all 99,500 children of German nationality before enrollment in school in the City of Aachen from 1968-1999. For each year, 10% of the boys and girls respectively, were randomly selected for the analyses. Quantile regression was used to examine the pattern and extent of change in BMI percentiles over this 31-year period. Anthropometric data of a total of 5081 boys and 4863 girls were subjected to quantile regression. While significant increases occurred for any given BMI percentile, the annual increase for both sexes was most prominent in the upper range. No change in body height was observed during the study period. preschool children have gained a higher body mass index during the last 30 years. The mechanisms underlying the secular trend towards increasing body mass index seemingly affect children in the upper weight range more than those in the lower range.

  15. Secular trends in fruit intake among Danish schoolchildren, 1988 to 2006: Changing habits or methodological artefacts?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Mette; Krølner, Rikke; Svastisalee, Chalida Mae

    2008-01-01

    -based data from students aged 11, 13 and 15 total (n = 23,871) from a random sample of schools. Data on fruit intake were measured by a food frequency questionnaire. Due to changes in number of response categories beween surveys, different cut-points were analysed. RESULTS: The prevalence of students eating...... been published internationally. In Denmark, national comprehensive campaigns to enhance fruit and vegetable consumption were initiated in 2001. This paper describes secular trends in fruit intake among Danish adolescents by six comparable school surveys from 1988 to 2006. The paper demonstrates...... fruit at least once daily ranged from 78.3% among 13-year-old girls in 1988 to 17.3% among 15-year-old boys in 2002. Based on the six data collections, analyses of trends showed a significant decrease in prevalence of students eating fruit at least once daily from 1988 to 2002 (all p-values

  16. Secular Trends in Habitual Physical Activities of Mozambican Children and Adolescents from Maputo City

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fernanda Karina dos Santos

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Social and economic changes occurring in the last two decades in Mozambique may have induced lifestyle changes among youth. This study aimed to document secular changes in habitual physical activities of Mozambican youth between 1992, 1999 and 2012. A total of 3393 youth (eight–15 years, were measured in three different time periods (1992, 1999, 2012. Habitual physical activity (PA was estimated with a questionnaire, including items related to household chores, sport participation, traditional games and walking activities. Biological maturation was assessed. Analysis of Covariance (ANCOVA was used to compare mean differences in PA across the years. Significant decreases between 1992–1999 and 1992–2012 were observed for boys in household chores, games and walking, and a significant decline between 1999 and 2012 was found in sport participation. Among girls, a significant and consistent decline (1992 > 1999 > 2012 was observed for household chores, a decline between 1992–1999 and 1992–2012 for games and walking, and a significant increase between 1992 and 1999 in sport participation. In general, a negative secular trend was found in habitual PA among Mozambican youth. Interventions aimed at increasing PA represent important educational and public health opportunities.

  17. Growth and secular trend in school-children from Cento, Ferrara, Italy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toselli, Stefania; Ventrella, Angela Raffaella; Franzaroli, Grazia; Brasili, Patricia

    2006-03-01

    Growth parameters were surveyed in a sample of 296 Italian children, 6-9 years old, from Cento (Ferrara, Emilia-Romagna). The comparison with children from the same town measured in 1974-75 show changes in some parameters, suggesting an ongoing secular trend. To better understand the observed weight increase and the sex difference, we also evaluated body composition and motricity. The analysis of the present sample is a preliminary part of a longitudinal study dealing with modifications of body composition and motor capacity induced by growth. In our sample the children are growing according to the Italian reference standard. The females present weight, height and Body Mass Index (BMI) values comparable to the 50th centile, while the males present higher values of weight, skinfold thicknesses and BMI. Sex differences in the motor performance were noted. A methodological comparison of obesity assessments based on BMI and percentage of body fat (%F) shows similar conclusions but somewhat different results.

  18. Growth variation, final height and secular trend. Proceedings of the 17th Aschauer Soiree, 7th November 2009

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hermanussen, M.; Godina, E.; Rühli, F.J.; Blaha, P.; Boldsen, J.L.; Buuren, S. van; MacIntyre, M.; Aßmann, C.; Ghosh, A.; Stefano, G.F. de; Sonkin, V.D.; Tresguerres, J.A.F.; Meigen, C.; Scheffler, C.; Geiger, C.; Lieberman, L.S.

    2010-01-01

    Growth and body height have always been topics interesting to the public. In particular, the stupendous increase of some 15-19. cm in final adult height during the last 150 years in most European countries (the " secular trend" ), the concomitant changes in body and head proportions, the tendency to

  19. Growth variation, final height and secular trend. Proceedings of the 17th Aschauer Soiree, 7th November 2009

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hermanussen, M.; Godina, E.; Rühli, F.J.; Blaha, P.; Boldsen, J.L.; Buuren, S. van; MacIntyre, M.; Aßmann, C.; Ghosh, A.; Stefano, G.F. de; Sonkin, V.D.; Tresguerres, J.A.F.; Meigen, C.; Scheffler, C.; Geiger, C.; Lieberman, L.S.

    2010-01-01

    Growth and body height have always been topics interesting to the public. In particular, the stupendous increase of some 15-19. cm in final adult height during the last 150 years in most European countries (the " secular trend" ), the concomitant changes in body and head proportions, the tendency

  20. Secular trends in diagnostic code density in electronic healthcare data from health care systems in the Vaccine Safety Datalink project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hechter, Rulin C; Qian, Lei; Sy, Lina S; Greene, Sharon K; Weintraub, Eric S; Naleway, Allison L; Rowhani-Rahbar, Ali; Donahue, James G; Daley, Matthew F; Vazquez-Benitez, Gabriela; Lugg, Marlene M; Jacobsen, Steven J

    2013-02-04

    Large observational vaccine safety studies often use automated diagnoses extracted from medical care databases to identify pre-specified potential adverse events following immunization (AEFI). We assessed the secular trends and variability in the number of diagnoses per encounter regardless of immunization status referred as diagnostic code density, by healthcare setting, age, and pre-specified condition in eight large health care systems of the Vaccine Safety Datalink project during 2001-2009. An increasing trend in diagnostic code density was observed in all healthcare settings and age groups, with variations across the sites. Sudden increases in diagnostic code density were observed at certain sites when changes in coding policies or data inclusion criteria took place. When vaccine safety studies use an historical comparator, the increased diagnostic code density over time may generate low expected rates (based on historical data) and high observed rates (based on current data), suggesting a false positive association between a vaccine and AEFI. The ongoing monitoring of the diagnostic code density can provide guidance on study design and choice of appropriate comparison groups. It can also be used to ensure data quality and allow timely correction of errors in an active safety surveillance system. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Secular trends in growth and nutritional status of Mozambican school-aged children and adolescents.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fernanda Karina dos Santos

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to examine secular changes in growth and nutritional status of Mozambican children and adolescents between 1992, 1999 and 2012. METHODS: 3374 subjects (1600 boys, 1774 girls, distributed across the three time points (523 subjects in 1992; 1565 in 1999; and 1286 in 2012, were studied. Height and weight were measured, BMI was computed, and WHO cut-points were used to define nutritional status. ANCOVA models were used to compare height, weight and BMI across study years; chi-square was used to determine differences in the nutritional status prevalence across the years. RESULTS: Significant differences for boys were found for height and weight (p2012, and those from 2012 had the highest BMI (1999<2012. In general, similar patterns were observed when mean values were analyzed by age. A positive trend was observed for overweight and obesity prevalences, whereas a negative trend emerged for wasting, stunting-wasting (in boys, and normal-weight (in girls; no clear trend was evident for stunting. CONCLUSION: Significant positive changes in growth and nutritional status were observed among Mozambican youth from 1992 to 2012, which are associated with economic, social and cultural transitional processes, expressing a dual burden in this population, with reduction in malnourished youth in association with an increase in the prevalence of overweight and obesity.

  2. Secular trends and birth cohort effects in unprovoked seizures: Rochester, Minnesota 1935-1984.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Annegers, J F; Hauser, W A; Lee, J R; Rocca, W A

    1995-06-01

    The incidence of idiopathic/cryptogenic epilepsy and isolated unprovoked seizures has been relatively stable in the population of Rochester, Minnesota, for the 50-year period 1935 through 1984. In each decade, the age-specific rates exhibited a consistent U-shaped pattern of decreasing rates from infancy to age 40-49 and a progressive increase thereafter to a second peak at age 70 years. Males had a 15% higher incidence of cryptogenic unprovoked seizures than females. The most pronounced secular trend was a decrease in the incidence in children aged seizures in individuals aged > or = 50 from 1965 through 1984. This decrease paralleled the decrease in cerebrovascular disease in the community. The decrease in idiopathic unprovoked seizures may be related to a concurrent trend in "silent stroke." Plots and Poisson regression analysis did not show patterns in the incidence of idiopathic unprovoked seizures related to successive birth cohorts. However, significantly lower incidence rates were observed for the 1930-1934 birth cohort, about half that of all others, between the ages of 5 and 54 years.

  3. Secular trends in cardiorespiratory fitness and body mass index in Danish children: The European Youth Heart Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Møller, N C; Wedderkopp, N; Kristensen, P L; Andersen, L B; Froberg, K

    2007-08-01

    To examine the secular trends in cardiorespiratory fitness (CF) and body fatness in Danish children. Trends were analyzed overall and across socioeconomic status (SES). Two cross-sectional studies conducted on 589 and 458 third-grade Danish children in 1997-1998 and 2003-2004, respectively. CF was determined by a maximal cycle-ergometer test. The lowest sex-specific quartile of CF in the study from 1997 to 1998 was used as a cut-point for low CF. Body mass index (BMI) cut-points were used to describe overweight, and SES was divided into two groups according to parents' occupation. This study showed a secular decline in CF in girls overall. Increased CF, BMI, and prevalence of overweight were observed in boys with high SES, in boys with low SES, and in girls with low SES, respectively. However, after additional Bonferroni's correction, none of the statistical analyses performed across socioeconomic gradients reached significant P-values. CF declined in girls overall. Although not statistically significant after additional Bonferroni's correction, results in general showed less favorable trends in low SES children. Thus, trying to describe secular trends in CF and body fatness overall without any regard to SES might disguise social-caused differences. However, further studies are needed in order to verify this hypothesis.

  4. Secular trend in candidemia and the use of fluconazole in Finland, 2004-2007

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kotilainen Pirkko

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In a previous study we observed an increasing trend in candidemia in Finland in the 1990s. Our aim was now to investigate further population-based secular trends, as well as outcome, and evaluate the association of fluconazole consumption and prophylaxis policy with the observed findings. Methods We analyzed laboratory-based surveillance data on candidemia from the National Infectious Diseases Register during 2004-2007 in Finland. Data on fluconazole consumption, expressed as defined daily doses, DDDs, was obtained from the National Agency for Medicines, and regional prophylaxis policies were assessed by a telephone survey. Results A total of 603 candidemia cases were identified. The average annual incidence rate was 2.86 cases per 100,000 population (range by year, 2.59-3.09; range by region, 2.37-3.85. The highest incidence was detected in males aged >65 years (12.23 per 100,000 population. Candida albicans accounted for 67% of cases, and C. glabrata ranked the second (19%, both without any significant change in proportions. C. parapsilosis accounted for 5% of cases and C. krusei 3% of cases. The one-month case-fatality varied between 28-32% during the study period. Fluconazole consumption increased from 19.57 DDDs per 100,000 population in 2000 to 25.09 in 2007. Systematic fluconazole prophylaxis was implemented for premature neonates, patients with acute leukemias and liver transplant patients. Conclusion The dominant proportion of C. albicans remained stable, but C. glabrata was the most frequent non-albicans species. The proportion of C. glabrata had increased from our previous study period in the presence of increasing use of fluconazole. The rate of candidemia in Finland is still low but mortality high like in other countries.

  5. The evolution of the global selenium cycle: Secular trends in Se isotopes and abundances

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stüeken, E. E.; Buick, R.; Bekker, A.; Catling, D.; Foriel, J.; Guy, B. M.; Kah, L. C.; Machel, H. G.; Montañez, I. P.; Poulton, S. W.

    2015-08-01

    The Earth's surface has undergone major transitions in its redox state over the past three billion years, which have affected the mobility and distribution of many elements. Here we use Se isotopic and abundance measurements of marine and non-marine mudrocks to reconstruct the evolution of the biogeochemical Se cycle from ∼3.2 Gyr onwards. The six stable isotopes of Se are predominantly fractionated during redox reactions under suboxic conditions, which makes Se a potentially valuable new tool for identifying intermediate stages from an anoxic to a fully oxygenated world. δ82/78Se shows small fractionations of mostly less than 2‰ throughout Earth's history and all are mass-dependent within error. In the Archean, especially after 2.7 Gyr, we find an isotopic enrichment in marine (+0.37 ± 0.27‰) relative to non-marine samples (-0.28 ± 0.67‰), paired with increasing Se abundances. Student t-tests show that these trends are statistically significant. Although we cannot completely rule out the possibility of volcanic Se addition, these trends may indicate the onset of oxidative weathering on land, followed by non-quantitative reduction of Se oxyanions during fluvial transport. The Paleoproterozoic Great Oxidation Event (GOE) is not reflected in the marine δ82/78Se record. However, we find a major inflection in the secular δ82/78Se trend during the Neoproterozoic, from a Precambrian mean of +0.42 ± 0.45‰ to a Phanerozoic mean of -0.19 ± 0.59‰. This drop probably reflects the oxygenation of the deep ocean at this time, stabilizing Se oxyanions throughout the water column. Since then, reduction of Se oxyanions has likely been restricted to anoxic basins and diagenetic environments in sediments. In light of recent Cr isotope data, it is likely that oxidative weathering before the Neoproterozoic produced Se oxyanions in the intermediate redox state SeIV, whereas the fully oxidized species SeVI became more abundant after the Neoproterozoic rise of

  6. Morphometric distances among five ethnic groups and evaluation of the secular trend in historical Libya.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Danubio, Maria Enrica; Martorella, Domenico; Rufo, Fabrizio; Vecchi, Elvira; Sanna, Emanuele

    2011-01-01

    This study analysed the variations, both in space and time, of 10 body dimensions and 2 anthropometric indexes of 745 adult males belonging to 5 ethnic groups of historical Lybia (el-Haràbi, el-Baraghìts, Marabtìn, Oases inhabitants and Tuareg). The data were collected in the years 1928 and 1932 by Puccioni and Cipriani, two Italian anthropologists. The aim was to reconstruct the biological history of Libya at the time, and thus contribute to the ongoing debate on the evolution of the biological standard of living in developing Countries. The subjects were analysed by ethnicity and by 10-year age groups, after adjusting for age. The results of ANCOVA and Tukey's post-hoc test show that among and between groups there are statistical significant differences overall for armspan, height, head breadth, bizygomatic breadth, biiliac breadth/height and head breadth/head length indexes. By means of the cluster analysis, the el-Haràbi, el-Baraghìts and Marabtìn groups cluster together, whereas the Tuareg and Oases inhabitants cluster separately one from the other and both from the other three ethnic groups. Within-group variations are not very marked in all ethnicities. In general, there is the tendency, not statistically significant, to the reduction and/or stasis of body dimensions from the older to the younger, and the differences are greater among the older than the younger age classes. In conclusion, it can be argued that these groups, all different culturally and geographically, were following the same tendency of stasis of the secular trend of the body dimensions considered in this study, and such stasis persisted since, at least, the last twenty years of the 19th century, when the older were born.

  7. Are changes in body dimensions of adult females from Italy (Sardinia and Latium) related to secular trend?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanna, Emanuele; Danubio, Maria Enrica

    2009-01-01

    This paper presents secular changes in height, weight, sitting height, relative sitting height, BMI and estimated lower limb length in two samples of Italian adult females from Sardinia (Cagliari) and Latium (Rieti). The samples consist of 579 healthy women from the province of Cagliari and 138 from the town of Rieti, aged 20.0-39.9 years, measured in the period 2003-2006. The women were divided into four 5-year age groups. The anthropometric variables were considered according to different socioeconomic status (SES) in the Cagliari sample, while the Rieti sample was considered as a whole, as the SES was homogeneous. ANOVA results suggest that the secular trend was very slow or had come to a halt in the Rieti sample but continues in the Cagliari sample, as shown by the statistically significant differences for estimated lower limb length (psecular trend might be very slow or has stopped in the Cagliari subsamples homogeneous for SES.

  8. Secular trends in cholesterol lipoproteins and triglycerides and prevalence of dyslipidemias in an urban Indian population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gupta, Rajeev; Guptha, Soneil; Agrawal, Aachu; Kaul, Vijay; Gaur, Kiran; Gupta, Vijay P

    2008-10-24

    Coronary heart disease is increasing in urban Indian subjects and lipid abnormalities are important risk factors. To determine secular trends in prevalence of various lipid abnormalities we performed studies in an urban Indian population. Successive epidemiological Jaipur Heart Watch (JHW) studies were performed in Western India in urban locations. The studies evaluated adults > or = 20 years for multiple coronary risk factors using standardized methodology (JHW-1, 1993-94, n = 2212; JHW-2, 1999-2001, n = 1123; JHW-3, 2002-03, n = 458, and JHW-4 2004-2005, n = 1127). For the present analyses data of subjects 20-59 years (n = 4136, men 2341, women 1795) have been included. In successive studies, fasting measurements for cholesterol lipoproteins (total cholesterol, LDL cholesterol, HDL cholesterol) and triglycerides were performed in 193, 454, 179 and 252 men (n = 1078) and 83, 472, 195, 248 women (n = 998) respectively (total 2076). Age-group specific levels of various cholesterol lipoproteins, triglycerides and their ratios were determined. Prevalence of various dyslipidemias (total cholesterol > or = 200 mg/dl, LDL cholesterol > or = 130 mg/dl, non-HDL cholesterol > or = 160 mg/dl, triglycerides > or = 150 mg/dl, low HDL cholesterol cholesterol remnants > or = 25 mg/dl, and high total:HDL cholesterol ratio > or = 5.0, and > or = 4.0 were also determined. Significance of secular trends in prevalence of dyslipidemias was determined using linear-curve estimation regression. Association of changing trends in prevalence of dyslipidemias with trends in educational status, obesity and truncal obesity (high waist:hip ratio) were determined using two-line regression analysis. Mean levels of various lipoproteins increased sharply from JHW-1 to JHW-2 and then gradually in JHW-3 and JHW-4. Age-adjusted mean values (mg/dl) in JHW-1, JHW-2, JHW-3 and JHW-4 studies respectively showed a significant increase in total cholesterol (174.9 +/- 45, 196.0 +/- 42, 187.5 +/- 38, 193

  9. Intersection of economics, history, and human biology: secular trends in stature in nineteenth-century Sioux Indians.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prince, J M

    1995-06-01

    An unusual confluence of historical factors may be responsible for nineteenth-century Sioux being able to sustain high statures despite enduring adverse conditions during the early reservation experience. An exceptionally long span of Dakota Sioux history was examined for secular trends using a cross-sectional design. Two primary sources were used: One anthropometric data set was collected in the late nineteenth century under the direction of Franz Boas, and another set was collected by James R. Walker in the early twentieth century. Collectively, the data represent the birth years between 1820 and 1880 for adult individuals 20 years old or older. Adult heights (n = 1197) were adjusted for aging effects and regressed on age, with each data set and each sex analyzed separately. Tests for differences between the adult means of age cohorts by decade of birth (1820-1880) were also carried out. Only one sample of adults showed any convincing secular trend (p < 0.05): surprisingly, a positive linear trend for Walker's sample of adult males. This sample was also the one sample of adults that showed significant differences between age cohorts. The failure to find any negative secular trend in this population of Amerindians is remarkable, given the drastic socioeconomic changes that occurred with the coming of the reservation period (ca. 1868). Comparisons with contemporary white Americans show that the Sioux remained consistently taller than whites well into the reservation period and that Sioux children (Prince 1989) continued to grow at highly favorable rates during this time of severe conditions. A possible explanation for these findings involves the relatively favorable level of subsistence support received by most of the Sioux from the US government, as stipulated by various treaties. Conservative estimates suggest that the Sioux may have been able to sustain net levels of per capita annual meat consumption that exceeded the US average for several years before 1893.

  10. Four billion years of ophiolites reveal secular trends in oceanic crust formation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Harald Furnes; Maarten de Wit; Yildirim Dilek

    2014-01-01

    We combine a geological, geochemical and tectonic dataset from 118 ophiolite complexes of the major global Phanerozoic orogenic belts with similar datasets of ophiolites from 111 Precambrian greenstone belts to construct an overview of oceanic crust generation over 4 billion years. Geochemical discrimi-nation systematics built on immobile trace elements reveal that the basaltic units of the Phanerozoic ophiolites are dominantly subduction-related (75%), linked to backarc processes and characterized by a strong MORB component, similar to ophiolites in Precambrian greenstone sequences (85%). The remaining 25%Phanerozoic subduction-unrelated ophiolites are mainly (74%) of Mid-Ocean-Ridge type (MORB type), in contrast to the equal proportion of Rift/Continental Margin, Plume, and MORB type ophiolites in the Precambrian greenstone belts. Throughout the Phanerozoic there are large geochemical variations in major and trace elements, but for average element values calculated in 5 bins of 100 million year intervals there are no obvious secular trends. By contrast, basaltic units in the ophiolites of the Precambrian greenstones (calculated in 12 bins of 250 million years intervals), starting in late Paleo-to early Mesoproterozoic (ca. 2.0e1.8 Ga), exhibit an apparent decrease in the average values of incom-patible elements such as Ti, P, Zr, Y and Nb, and an increase in the compatible elements Ni and Cr with deeper time to the end of the Archean and into the Hadean. These changes can be attributed to decreasing degrees of partial melting of the upper mantle from Hadean/Archean to Present. The onset of geochemical changes coincide with the timing of detectible changes in the structural architecture of the ophiolites such as greater volumes of gabbro and more common sheeted dyke complexes, and lesser occurrences of ocelli (varioles) in the pillow lavas in ophiolites younger than 2 Ga. The global data from the Precambrian ophiolites, representative of nearly 50% of all known

  11. Four billion years of ophiolites reveal secular trends in oceanic crust formation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Harald Furnes

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available We combine a geological, geochemical and tectonic dataset from 118 ophiolite complexes of the major global Phanerozoic orogenic belts with similar datasets of ophiolites from 111 Precambrian greenstone belts to construct an overview of oceanic crust generation over 4 billion years. Geochemical discrimination systematics built on immobile trace elements reveal that the basaltic units of the Phanerozoic ophiolites are dominantly subduction-related (75%, linked to backarc processes and characterized by a strong MORB component, similar to ophiolites in Precambrian greenstone sequences (85%. The remaining 25% Phanerozoic subduction-unrelated ophiolites are mainly (74% of Mid-Ocean-Ridge type (MORB type, in contrast to the equal proportion of Rift/Continental Margin, Plume, and MORB type ophiolites in the Precambrian greenstone belts. Throughout the Phanerozoic there are large geochemical variations in major and trace elements, but for average element values calculated in 5 bins of 100 million year intervals there are no obvious secular trends. By contrast, basaltic units in the ophiolites of the Precambrian greenstones (calculated in 12 bins of 250 million years intervals, starting in late Paleo- to early Mesoproterozoic (ca. 2.0–1.8 Ga, exhibit an apparent decrease in the average values of incompatible elements such as Ti, P, Zr, Y and Nb, and an increase in the compatible elements Ni and Cr with deeper time to the end of the Archean and into the Hadean. These changes can be attributed to decreasing degrees of partial melting of the upper mantle from Hadean/Archean to Present. The onset of geochemical changes coincide with the timing of detectible changes in the structural architecture of the ophiolites such as greater volumes of gabbro and more common sheeted dyke complexes, and lesser occurrences of ocelli (varioles in the pillow lavas in ophiolites younger than 2 Ga. The global data from the Precambrian ophiolites, representative of nearly 50

  12. Continuous Glucose Monitoring and Trend Accuracy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gottlieb, Rebecca; Le Compte, Aaron; Chase, J. Geoffrey

    2014-01-01

    Continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) devices are being increasingly used to monitor glycemia in people with diabetes. One advantage with CGM is the ability to monitor the trend of sensor glucose (SG) over time. However, there are few metrics available for assessing the trend accuracy of CGM devices. The aim of this study was to develop an easy to interpret tool for assessing trend accuracy of CGM data. SG data from CGM were compared to hourly blood glucose (BG) measurements and trend accuracy was quantified using the dot product. Trend accuracy results are displayed on the Trend Compass, which depicts trend accuracy as a function of BG. A trend performance table and Trend Index (TI) metric are also proposed. The Trend Compass was tested using simulated CGM data with varying levels of error and variability, as well as real clinical CGM data. The results show that the Trend Compass is an effective tool for differentiating good trend accuracy from poor trend accuracy, independent of glycemic variability. Furthermore, the real clinical data show that the Trend Compass assesses trend accuracy independent of point bias error. Finally, the importance of assessing trend accuracy as a function of BG level is highlighted in a case example of low and falling BG data, with corresponding rising SG data. This study developed a simple to use tool for quantifying trend accuracy. The resulting trend accuracy is easily interpreted on the Trend Compass plot, and if required, performance table and TI metric. PMID:24876437

  13. On the dynamics of persistent states and their secular trends in the waveguides of the Southern Hemisphere troposphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Kane, Terence J.; Risbey, James S.; Monselesan, Didier P.; Horenko, Illia; Franzke, Christian L. E.

    2016-06-01

    We identify the dynamical drivers of systematic changes in persistent quasi-stationary states (regimes) of the Southern Hemisphere troposphere and their secular trends. We apply a purely data-driven approach, whereby a multiscale approximation to nonstationary dynamical processes is achieved through optimal sequences of locally stationary fast vector autoregressive factor processes, to examine a high resolution atmospheric reanalysis over the period encompassing 1958-2013. This approach identifies regimes and their secular trends in terms of the predictability of the flow and is Granger causal. A comprehensive set of diagnostics on both isentropic and isobaric surfaces is employed to examine teleconnections over the full hemisphere and for a set of regional domains. Composite states for the hemisphere obtained from nonstationary nonparametric cluster analysis reveal patterns consistent with a circumglobal wave 3 (polar)-wave 5 (subtropical) pattern, while regional composites reveal the Pacific South American pattern and blocking modes. The respective roles of potential vorticity sources, stationary Rossby waves and baroclinic instability on the dynamics of these circulation modes are shown to be reflected by the seasonal variations of the waveguides, where Rossby wave sources and baroclinic disturbances are largely contained within the waveguides and with little direct evidence of sustained remote tropical influences on persistent synoptic features. Warm surface temperature anomalies are strongly connected with regions of upper level divergence and anticyclonic Rossby wave sources. The persistent states identified reveal significant variability on interannual to decadal time scales with large secular trends identified in all sectors apart from a region close to South America.

  14. Secular trends in fracture incidence in the UK between 1990 and 2012

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Velde, R Y; Wyers, C E; Curtis, E M; Geusens, P P M M; van den Bergh, J P W; de Vries, F; Cooper, C; van Staa, T P; Harvey, N C

    2016-01-01

    We studied sex-specific incidence rates in a population 50 years or older in the UK. In the period of 1990-2012, the overall rate of fracture did not change, but there were marked secular alterations in the rates of individual fracture types, particularly hip and spine fractures in the elderly. INTR

  15. Secular trends in fracture incidence in the UK between 1990 and 2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Velde, R Y; Wyers, C E; Curtis, E M; Geusens, P P M M; van den Bergh, J P W; de Vries, F; Cooper, C; van Staa, T P; Harvey, N C

    2016-11-01

    We studied sex-specific incidence rates in a population 50 years or older in the UK. In the period of 1990-2012, the overall rate of fracture did not change, but there were marked secular alterations in the rates of individual fracture types, particularly hip and spine fractures in the elderly.

  16. A Secular Indicator Of the Degree Of Economic Development and Synthetic Evaluation Of Population Well-Being Trends

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gheorghe Săvoiu

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available he specifically multidisciplinary approach employed in the present paper is motivated by the validity of Engel’s sociological laws, the usefulness of the elasticity of the population’s food products demand according to income, the statistical association between the contraction of the share of expenditures for these goods and the expansion of economy development, and the consistent assessment of the trends in population well-being, in keeping with the research of family budgets, focusing on the case of Romania in the last century. The introduction is devoted to the statistical, economic and sociological tools for assessing economic development and the trends in well-being. The first section describes the weighting coefficients in the universe of interpret indexes, and the second presents the methodology relating to a secular instrument of assessing the degree of economic development and the synthetic evaluation of the trends of well-being in Romania, in parallel to a number of maximum and minimum (European and international trends. The results presented, and the discussion caused by the statistical confrontation of that statistical, economic and sociological information, embrace, with the conclusions, the attempt made by the whole of the paper, to round up, by means of this tool, a necessary set of secular or Schumpeterian indicators, harmonized and comparable, of the GDP/capita type, or such as cost of life index, consumer price index, public and external debt, etc.; such already constructed indicators contribute to delineating the historical and macro-behavioural specificity of such an economy in Eastern Europe as that of Romania.

  17. Secular trends of low birthweight and macrosomia and related maternal factors in Beijing, China: a longitudinal trend analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-01-01

    Background Information tracking changes of birthweight is scarce in China. To examine trends of low birthweight (birthweight birthweight ≥ 4000 g) and potential risk factors in Beijing, hospital records from two major obstetrics and gynecology hospitals in urban districts in Beijing were analyzed. Methods Hospital records from 1996 to 2010 were retrieved. Information of prenatal examination and birth outcomes was entered into a structured database. Live births were used for trend analysis. Information of live births in 2010 was used to identify potential risk factors. Results A total of 63 661 live births were delivered during 1996–2010 in the study hospitals. The average birthweight increased from 3271 g in 1996 to 3 359 g in 2000 and slightly declined to 3 331 in 2010. The percentage of low birthweight fluctuated around 4.0%. No significant increase or decrease was observed. Preterm birth was the main cause of low birthweight, accounting for more than 73% of low birthweight. The average percentage of macrosomia was 7.6%. The percentages of macrosomia increased from 6.6% in 1996 to 9.5% in 2000 and declined to 7.0% in 2010. Excessive gestational weight gain and gestational diabetes were significantly associated with macrosomia. Conclusions Continuously monitoring abnormal birthweight is needed and intervention should focus on appropriate gestational weight gain and reduction of preterm birth and gestational diabetes. PMID:24641671

  18. Secular trends of low birthweight and macrosomia and related maternal factors in Beijing, China: a longitudinal trend analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shan, Xiaoyi; Chen, Fangfang; Wang, Wenpeng; Zhao, Juan; Teng, Yue; Wu, Minghui; Teng, Honghong; Zhang, Xue; Qi, Hong; Liu, Xiaohong; Tan, Chunying; Mi, Jie

    2014-03-18

    Information tracking changes of birthweight is scarce in China. To examine trends of low birthweight (birthweight macrosomia (birthweight ≥ 4000 g) and potential risk factors in Beijing, hospital records from two major obstetrics and gynecology hospitals in urban districts in Beijing were analyzed. Hospital records from 1996 to 2010 were retrieved. Information of prenatal examination and birth outcomes was entered into a structured database. Live births were used for trend analysis. Information of live births in 2010 was used to identify potential risk factors. A total of 63 661 live births were delivered during 1996-2010 in the study hospitals. The average birthweight increased from 3271 g in 1996 to 3 359 g in 2000 and slightly declined to 3 331 in 2010. The percentage of low birthweight fluctuated around 4.0%. No significant increase or decrease was observed. Preterm birth was the main cause of low birthweight, accounting for more than 73% of low birthweight. The average percentage of macrosomia was 7.6%. The percentages of macrosomia increased from 6.6% in 1996 to 9.5% in 2000 and declined to 7.0% in 2010. Excessive gestational weight gain and gestational diabetes were significantly associated with macrosomia. Continuously monitoring abnormal birthweight is needed and intervention should focus on appropriate gestational weight gain and reduction of preterm birth and gestational diabetes.

  19. ACRIM-gap and total solar irradiance revisited: Is there a secular trend between 1986 and 1996?

    CERN Document Server

    Krivova, N A; Wenzler, T; 10.1029/2009GL040707

    2009-01-01

    A gap in the total solar irradiance (TSI) measurements between ACRIM-1 and ACRIM-2 led to the ongoing debate on the presence or not of a secular trend between the minima preceding cycles 22 (in 1986) and 23 (1996). It was recently proposed to use the SATIRE model of solar irradiance variations to bridge this gap. When doing this, it is important to use the appropriate SATIRE-based reconstruction, which we do here, employing a reconstruction based on magnetograms. The accuracy of this model on months to years timescales is significantly higher than that of a model developed for long-term reconstructions used by the ACRIM team for such an analysis. The constructed `mixed' ACRIM - SATIRE composite shows no increase in the TSI from 1986 to 1996, in contrast to the ACRIM TSI composite.

  20. Ten-year secular trend of overweight and obesity in school children in south-eastern Poland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Artur Mazur

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Objective. To examine the trend in prevalence of overweight and obesity in schoolchildren from south-eastern Poland over a 10-year period. Materials and Method. A cross-sectional study was conducted in randomly selected primary schools. In total, 4,248 children (2,182 boys and 2,066 girls, mean age 10.5±2.4 years, were examined in 1998, and 2,412 children (1,184 boys and 1,228 girls, mean age 10.5±2.3 years in 2008. In each school the entire population was studied. Results. In 2008, the prevalence of overweight in girls was 13.3% and obesity 7.7%, compared to 12.0% and 10.1% in 1998. The decrease in obesity prevalence was statistically significant. In boys, the prevalence of overweight in 2008 was 14.2% and obesity 6.4%, compared to 10.5% and 6.8% in 1998. The increase in overweight prevalence among boys was statistically significant. Conclusions. A trend toward stabilization of the prevalence of overweight and obesity was noted in school children from south-eastern Poland between 1998–2008. The declining prevalence of obesity in girls and increased prevalence of overweight in boys demonstrates that in this age group of children the secular trend is gender dependent.

  1. Japanese secular trends in birthweight and the prevalence of low birthweight infants during the last three decades: A population-based study

    OpenAIRE

    Yo Takemoto; Erika Ota; Daisuke Yoneoka; Rintaro Mori; Satoru Takeda

    2016-01-01

    Since low birthweight has been correlated with both neonatal and long-term health, we performed this epidemiological study to evaluate the Japanese secular trends in mean birthweight and the prevalence of preterm/term low birthweight infants during the last three decades. We used population-based birth certificate data from January 1979 to December 2010. Time trends were analysed using a linear regression model. During the study period, we observed a significant decrease in the mean birthweig...

  2. Secular trend analysis oflung cancer incidence inSihui city, China between1987 and 2011

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    JinLinDu; MingHuangHong; QiHongHuang; ZhengErLiao; SuMeiCao; XiaoLin; LiFangZhang; YanHuaLi; ShangHangXie; MengJieYang; JieGuo; ErHongLin; QingLiu

    2015-01-01

    Background:With industrial and economic development in recent decades in South China, cancer incidence may have changed due to the changing lifestyle and environment. However, the trends of lung cancer and the roles of smoking and other environmental risk factors in the development of lung cancer in rural areas of South China remain unclear. The purpose of this study was to explore the lung cancer incidence trends and the possible causes of these trends. Methods:Joinpoint regression analysis and the age–period–cohort (APC) model were used to analyze the lung can‑cer incidence trends in Sihui, Guangdong province, China between 1987 and 2011, and explore the possible causes of these trends. Results:A total of 2,397 lung cancer patients were involved in this study. A 3‑fold increase in the incidence of lung cancer in both sexes was observed over the 25‑year period. Joinpoint regression analysis showed that while the inci‑dence continued to increase steadily in females during the entire period, a sharp acceleration was observed in males starting in 2005. The full APC model was selected to describe age, period, and birth cohort effects on lung cancer inci‑dence trends in Sihui. The age cohorts in both sexes showed a continuously signiifcant increase in the relative risk (RR) of lung cancer, with a peak in the eldest age group (80–84years). The RR of lung cancer showed a lfuctuating curve in both sexes. The birth cohorts identiifed an increased trend in both males and females; however, males had a plateau in the youngest cohorts who were born during 1955–1969. Conclusions:Increasing trends of the incidence of lung cancer in Sihui were dominated by the effects of age and birth cohorts. Social aging, smoking, and environmental changes may play important roles in such trends.

  3. Secular trend in height in enlisted men and recruits from the Brazilian Navy born from 1970 to 1977

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gilberto Kac

    Full Text Available This study presents data from a survey on height trends in Brazilian Navy enlisted men and recruits born from 1970 to 1977. The sample consisted of 52,574 enlisted men and 4,459 recruits ranging in age from 18.00 to 18.99 years. The statistical processing employed two-way analysis of variance procedure, simple linear regression comparing height and year of birth and multiple analysis controlling for schooling (regression coefficient and the chi-square. The results show that enlisted men and recruits displayed height increments, characterizing a contemporary process of secular trend. Such increments were also present in the country's various macro-regions. The results were compared to a recent investigation of a national scope the National Survey on Health and Nutrition (PNSN and both enlisted men and recruits displayed higher median height than that reported by the PNSN. Level of schooling for individuals in the Navy is high, far superior to that of the Brazilian population as a whole. This set of data suggests that young men enlisting in the Navy are on average of a higher socioeconomic status than the Brazilian population in general, which limits possibilities for extrapolating the findings from this research.

  4. Gender difference and economic gradients in the secular trend of population systolic blood pressure

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Ulla; Jensen, Gorm B

    2013-01-01

    To a large extent population blood pressure (PBP) affects morbidity and mortality in the society. Reports indicated that PBP decreased in many western countries. The associations between the main cardiovascular risk factors and the changing PBP have been described. The aim of this study....... In addition, there was a trend towards a lowering of risk-factor adjusted SBP in the high income women with time. The mechanism that lies behind the associations between trend in SBP and income is not known but data suggest that poor lifestyle may explain some of the differences. The treated hypertensives...... was to investigate association between income factors and trends in population BP and hypertension. Copenhagen City Heart Study is a prospective longitudinal epidemiological study on almost 20000 individuals through four surveys from 1976 to 2003. The BP measurement was fully standardised. Questionnaires...

  5. Secular Trends in Nosocomial Bloodstream Infections : Antibiotic-Resistant Bacteria Increase the Total Burden of Infection

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ammerlaan, H. S. M.; Harbarth, S.; Buiting, A. G. M.; Crook, D. W.; Fitzpatrick, F.; Hanberger, H.; Herwaldt, L. A.; van Keulen, P. H. J.; Kluytmans, J. A. J. W.; Kola, A.; Kuchenbecker, R. S.; Lingaas, E.; Meessen, N.; Morris-Downes, M. M.; Pottinger, J. M.; Rohner, P.; dos Santos, R. P.; Seifert, H.; Wisplinghoff, H.; Ziesing, S.; Walker, A. S.; Bonten, M. J. M.

    2013-01-01

    Background. It is unknown whether rising incidence rates of nosocomial bloodstream infections (BSIs) caused by antibiotic-resistant bacteria (ARB) replace antibiotic-susceptible bacteria (ASB), leaving the total BSI rate unaffected. Methods. We investigated temporal trends in annual incidence densit

  6. Secular trends of allergic asthma in Danish adults. The Copenhagen Allergy Study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Linneberg, A; Nielsen, N H; Madsen, F

    2001-01-01

    Numerous studies have reported increases in asthma prevalence among children world-wide. Less is known about similar trends in adults. We aimed to investigate whether the prevalence of allergic asthma symptoms had increased in an adult general population. Two cross-sectional surveys using identical...

  7. Secular trends in overweight and obesity among Icelandic adolescents: do parental education levels and family structure play a part?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eidsdóttir, Sigridur Þ; Kristjánsson, Álfgeir l; Sigfúsdóttir, Inga D; Garber, Carol E; Allegrante, John P

    2013-06-01

    To investigate whether the secular trend in the increasing prevalence of overweight and obesity among 16- to 20-year-old adolescents in Iceland varied by levels of parental education and family structure. Odds ratios were calculated from repeated population-based, cross-sectional surveys comprising cohorts of 16- to 20-year-old Icelandic adolescents attending junior colleges in 1992 (n=4,922), 2004 (n=11,031), 2007 (n=11,229), and 2010 (n=11,388). Body mass index (BMI) was calculated from self-reported weight and height and categorised as normal weight or overweight and obese, and examined in relation to parental education level and family structure. The odds of being overweight increased by 2.62 and 1.71 for boys and girls respectively over each of the survey time points. The prevalence of overweight and obesity increased across all three subgroups (low, medium, and high) of parental education level. The probability of overweight across all years were consistently the highest for youths with parents in the low-education category followed by middle-educated and high-educated parental background (pobesity trends between respondents' parental education backgrounds increased over time and was generally explained more by the fathers' education than by the mothers' education (pFamily structure was not associated with the prevalence of overweight and obesity in our data. Differences in parental levels of education are associated with accelerating trends in prevalence of overweight and obesity among 16- to 20-year-old adolescents in Iceland.

  8. Disordered Eating and Psychological Well-Being in Overweight and Nonoverweight Adolescents: Secular Trends from 1999 to 2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loth, Katie; Wall, Melanie; Larson, Nicole; Neumark-Sztainer, Dianne

    2016-01-01

    Objective In this research study, we examine how both overweight and nonoverweight adolescent girls and boys fared from 1999 to 2010 in terms of disordered eating behaviors and psychosocial well-being. Method A repeated cross-sectional design was used. Participants were recruited from public schools in 1999 (n = 3072, mean age = 14.6 ± 1.8) and 2010 (n = 2793, mean age = 14.4 ± 2.0). Secular trends were examined by weight status and gender using inverse probability weighting to control for changes in socio-demographics. Results In general, the prevalence of disordered eating behaviors and markers of psychosocial well-being among overweight girls and boys remained the same from 1999 to 2010. In contrast, among nonoverweight girls, chronic dieting, unhealthy weight control behaviors, and extreme weight control behaviors decreased, and body satisfaction improved during this time period. Further, among non-overweight boys, the prevalence of unhealthy and extreme weight control behaviors decreased, as did mean depression scores. Discussion Overall, findings indicate a strong need to ensure that messages about the dangers of disordered eating behaviors are reaching overweight youth. Obesity prevention interventions should not overlook the comorbid nature of obesity, disordered eating and poor psychosocial health; prevention programming should address shared risk factors, including dieting, media use, body dissatisfaction, and weight-related teasing. PMID:25641764

  9. Secular trend in age at menarche in China: a case study of two rural counties in Anhui Province.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graham, M J; Larsen, U; Xu, X

    1999-04-01

    There is increasing evidence that age at menarche has decreased in Europe and the United States during the last century and in Japan over the last several decades. Data from a community-based survey conducted in two rural counties of Anhui Province in China indicate a similar, downward secular trend in age at menarche for Chinese women. The present study shows the mean age at menarche decreased by 2.8 years, from 16.5 to 13.7, over an approximate 40-year time interval. This rapid decrease in age at menarche may partly be due to better nutrition and living standards reflected by the improved socioeconomic standards experienced in China over the past few decades. To test this hypothesis, a number of determinants of age at menarche were assessed; year of birth, literacy status, county of residence, amount of physical labour, general health status, pesticide exposure before age at menarche, and drinking water source were all found to be associated with age at menarche.

  10. Secular trends of low birthweight and macrosomia and related maternal factors in Beijing, China: a longitudinal trend analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Shan, Xiaoyi; Chen, Fangfang; Wang, Wenpeng; Zhao, Juan; Teng, Yue; Wu, Minghui; Teng, Honghong; Zhang, Xue; Qi, Hong; Liu, Xiaohong; Tan, Chunying; Mi, Jie

    2014-01-01

    Background Information tracking changes of birthweight is scarce in China. To examine trends of low birthweight (birthweight < 2500 g) and macrosomia (birthweight ≥ 4000 g) and potential risk factors in Beijing, hospital records from two major obstetrics and gynecology hospitals in urban districts in Beijing were analyzed. Methods Hospital records from 1996 to 2010 were retrieved. Information of prenatal examination and birth outcomes was entered into a structured database. Live births were u...

  11. Examining secular trend  and seasonality in count data using dynamic generalized linear modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lundbye-Christensen, Søren; Dethlefsen, Claus; Gorst-Rasmussen, Anders;

    series regression model for Poisson counts. It differs in allowing the regression coefficients to vary gradually over time in a random fashion. Data  In the period January 1980 to 1999, 17,989 incidents of acute myocardial infarction were recorded in the county of Northern Jutland, Denmark. Records were...... updated daily. Results  The model with a seasonal pattern and an approximately linear trend was fitted to the data, and diagnostic plots indicate a good model fit. The analysis with the dynamic model revealed peaks coinciding with influenza epidemics. On average the peak-to-trough ratio is estimated...

  12. [Secular trends in mortality for cerebrovascular diseases in Taiwan (1959-1989)].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, C L; Chang, S F; Hung, T P

    1992-03-01

    Cerebrovascular disease (CVD) is predominantly a disease of the elderly, and its morbidity effects increase with advancing age. In Taiwan, the increasing proportion of the elderly, as a result of medical progress and improved health care in the past 30 years, is largely responsible for the apparent increase in the number of CVD deaths. From 1963 to 1981, CVD was the leading cause of death. The crude mortality rate (CMR) and age-specific mortality rate (ASMR) of CVD by sex were derived from vital statistical data from 1959 to 1989 in Taiwan. The age-adjusted mortality rate (AAMR) using the standard world population of WHO and the cumulative mortality rate (CUMR) from birth to less than 80 years of age were calculated. Before 1983, the total number of CVD deaths had increased steadily for 30 years. In 1989, the CMR was 76.6/100,000 in men and 67.7/100,000 in women. The highest AAMR was 158.5/100,000 in 1973 for men and 130.2/100,000 in 1972 for women, and the lowest AAMR was 91.3/100,000 in 1989 for men and 81.1/100,000 in 1972 for women. The highest CUMR was 26.3% in 1968 for men and 20.8% in 1972 for women, and the lowest CUMR was 14.5% in 1989 for men and 13.6% in 1989 for women. The AAMR and CUMR for both sexes reached a maximum in 1972 and began to decline thereafter. The declines in AAMR and CUMR were averaging 2%/yr for both sexes after 1972 and were averaging 5%/yr for men and 4%/yr for women after 1983. This declining trend in CVD deaths in Taiwan began later and has been slower than similar trends in Japan and the U.S.

  13. Secular trends in age at menarche among Chinese girls from 24 ethnic minorities, 1985 to 2010

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    Yi Song

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Background: Declining age at menarche has been observed in many countries. In China, a decrease of 4.5 months per decade in the average age at menarche among the majority Han girls has recently been reported. However, the trends in age at menarche among ethnic minority girls over the past 25 years remain unknown. Objectives: To compare the differences in median age at menarche among girls aged 9–18 years across 24 ethnic minorities in 2010 and to estimate the trends in age at menarche in different ethnic minorities from 1985 to 2010. Design: We used data from six cross-sectional Chinese National Surveys on Students’ Constitution and Health (1985, 1991, 1995, 2000, 2005, and 2010. The median age at menarche was estimated by using probit analysis. Results: In 2010, the ethnic minorities with the earliest age at menarche were the Koreans (11.79 years, Mongolians (12.44 years, and Zhuang (12.52 years. The three ethnic minorities with the latest age at menarche were the Sala (14.32 years, Yi (13.74 years, and Uighurs (13.67 years. From 1985 to 2010, the age at menarche declined in all 24 minority groups. The Lisu, Kazakh, and Korean minorities showed the largest reductions in age at menarche by 1.79 (p0.05, 0.15 (p>0.05, and 0.15 (p>0.05 years, respectively, in the same period. Conclusion: A large variation in age at menarche was observed among different ethnic minorities, with the earliest age at menarche found among Korean girls. A reduction in the average age at menarche appeared among most of the ethnic minorities over time, and the largest decrease was observed in Lisu, Kazakh, and Korean girls. Thus, health education should focus on targeting the specific needs of each ethnic minority group.

  14. Secular trends in reported portion size of food and beverages consumed by Irish adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Brien, Sinead A; Livingstone, M Barbara E; McNulty, Breige A; Lyons, Jacqueline; Walton, Janette; Flynn, Albert; Segurado, Ricardo; Dean, Moira; Spence, Michelle; McCaffrey, Tracy A; Pourshahidi, L Kirsty; Nugent, Anne P; Gibney, Eileen R

    2015-04-14

    The present analysis aimed to investigate the changes in the reported portion sizes (PS) of foods and beverages commonly consumed by Irish adults (18-64 years) from the North South Ireland Food Consumption Survey (NSIFCS) (1997-2001) and the National Adult Nutrition Survey (NANS) (2008-10). Food PS, which are defined as the weight of food (g) consumed per eating occasion, were calculated for comparable foods and beverages in two nationally representative cross-sectional Irish food consumption surveys and were published in NSIFCS and NANS. Repeated measure mixed model analysis compared reported food PS at the total population level as well as subdivided by sex, age, BMI and social class. A total of thirteen commonly consumed foods were examined. The analysis demonstrated that PS significantly increased for five foods ('white sliced bread', 'brown/wholemeal breads', 'all meat, cooked', 'poultry, roasted' and 'milk'), significantly decreased for three ('potatoes', 'chips/wedges' and 'ham, sliced') and did not significantly change for five foods ('processed potato products', 'bacon/ham', 'cheese', 'yogurt' and 'butter/spreads') between the NSIFCS and the NANS. The present study demonstrates that there was considerable variation in the trends in reported food PS over this period.

  15. [Secular trends in blood lipid disorders among adolescents: population study in Novosibirsk (1989-2003)].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Denisova, D V; Nikitin, Iu P; Zav'ialova, L G; Burakova, S V; Ivanova, M V

    2007-01-01

    Hyperlipidemia is a known risk factor of coronary artery disease. The reduction of elevated serum total cholesterol (TC) and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) levels in childhood may reduce cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in adulthood. Aim of the study was to assess prevalence and trends in lipid profile and lipid disorders in adolescent population in Novosibirsk (1989-2003). Four cross-sectional surveys of school children aged 14-17 years in 1989 (n=656), in 1994 (n=620), in 1999 (n=626) and in 2003 (n=667) were carried out. Total sample was 2569 (1214 males and 1355 females). Blood total cholesterol (TC), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), triglycerides (TG) were measured by enzymatic methods. LDL-C was calculated with Friedwald's formula. Associations of blood lipids with age, sex, year of study, body mass index (kg/m2), blood pressure and main nutrients of diet were measured by GLM method. Prevalence of dyslipidemia was evaluated with NCEP-peds criteria. Diet was estimated using 24-hour dietary recall. During the 15-year period (1989-2003) mean serum TC decreased from 175 to 162 mg/dl in males and from 191 to 175 mg/dl in females (p dislipidemias in adolescents of Novosibirsk significantly changed following the changes of body mass index and diet.

  16. Secular trends of the impact of overweight and obesity on hypertension in Japan, 1980-2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nagai, Masato; Ohkubo, Takayoshi; Murakami, Yoshitaka; Takashima, Naoyuki; Kadota, Aya; Miyagawa, Naoko; Saito, Yoshino; Nishi, Nobuo; Okuda, Nagako; Kiyohara, Yutaka; Nakagawa, Hideaki; Nakamura, Yoshikazu; Fujiyoshi, Akira; Abbott, Robert D; Okamura, Tomonori; Okayama, Akira; Ueshima, Hirotsugu; Miura, Katsuyuki

    2015-11-01

    The prevalence of overweight (body mass index (BMI)=25.0-29.9 kg m(-)(2)) and obesity (⩾30.0 kg m(-)(2)) has been increasing over the last several decades in Japan. We examined trends of the impact of overweight and obesity on hypertension (systolic/diastolic blood pressure ⩾140/90 mm Hg or antihypertensive drugs use) using four national surveys in Japan, from which the participants were randomly sampled from the entire population. Study participants aged 30-79 years were selected for each survey (10 370 in 1980, 8005 in 1990, 5327 in 2000 and 2547 in 2010). The results showed that the impact of overweight and obesity on hypertension had increased significantly (P=0.040 and 0.006 in men and women, respectively). From 1980 to 2010, the multivariable-adjusted odds ratios for hypertension, comparing overweight and obesity with normal weight (BMI =18.5-24.9 kg m(-)(2)), went from 1.94 (95% confidence intervals: 1.64, 2.28) to 2.82 (2.07, 3.83) in men, and from 2.37 (2.05, 2.73) to 3.48 (2.57, 4.72) in women. Most of the association was observed in overweight participants, as only 3% of the Japanese were obese. In addition to the relationship between excessive BMI and other adverse health conditions, the rise in the association with hypertension increases the urgency in addressing weight control. We need to address the overweight and obesity epidemic.

  17. Secular trends and factors associated with overweight among Brazilian preschool children: PNSN-1989, PNDS-1996, and 2006/07

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    Jonas Augusto C. Silveira

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE:to describe the secular trends in overweight among preschool children in the years 1989, 1996, and 2006, and to identify risk factors associated with this condition in 2006.METHODS:anthropometric data from three surveys (1989, 1996, and 2006 with a representative sample of the population were analyzed. Overweight was defined as the weight-for-height Z-score. The multivariable models of overweight association with risk factors were generated by Poisson regression, and the estimates were shown as prevalence ratios with their respective 95% confidence intervals (PR [95% CI].RESULTS:throughout the 17-year period studied, the relative prevalence of overweight in preschoolers increased by 160% in Brazil, representing an increase of 9.4% per year. Based on data from the National Survey on Demography and Health of Women and Children - 2006/07, four multivariable models were created (macro-environmental, maternal, individual, and final model assuming hierarchy among the risk factors. In the final model, only the following remained associated with overweight: regions South/Southeast (1.55 [1.17 to 2.06], middle-class (1.35 [1.02 to 1.77], maternal obesity (1.66 [1.22 to 2.27], birth weight > 3.9 kg (1.87 [1.31 to 2.67], and being an only child or having only one sibling (1.81 [1.31 to 2.49].CONCLUSION:the prevalence of overweight among preschool children in Brazil has increased dramatically over the past 17 years, and it was higher in the 1996-2006 period. Future strategies for prevention and control of overweight in public health should focus or intensify actions in communities that are characterized by the presence of the risks identified in the present study.

  18. Secular trends and factors associated with overweight among Brazilian preschool children: PNSN-1989, PNDS-1996, and 2006/07

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    Jonas Augusto C. Silveira

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: to describe the secular trends in overweight among preschool children in the years 1989, 1996, and 2006, and to identify risk factors associated with this condition in 2006. METHODS: anthropometric data from three surveys (1989, 1996, and 2006 with a representative sample of the population were analyzed. Overweight was defined as the weight-for-height Z-score. The multivariable models of overweight association with risk factors were generated by Poisson regression, and the estimates were shown as prevalence ratios with their respective 95% confidence intervals (PR [95% CI]. RESULTS: throughout the 17-year period studied, the relative prevalence of overweight in preschoolers increased by 160% in Brazil, representing an increase of 9.4% per year. Based on data from the National Survey on Demography and Health of Women and Children - 2006/07, four multivariable models were created (macro-environmental, maternal, individual, and final model assuming hierarchy among the risk factors. In the final model, only the following remained associated with overweight: regions South/Southeast (1.55 [1.17 to 2.06], middle-class (1.35 [1.02 to 1.77], maternal obesity (1.66 [1.22 to 2.27], birth weight > 3.9 kg (1.87 [1.31 to 2.67], and being an only child or having only one sibling (1.81 [1.31 to 2.49]. CONCLUSION: the prevalence of overweight among preschool children in Brazil has increased dramatically over the past 17 years, and it was higher in the 1996-2006 period. Future strategies for prevention and control of overweight in public health should focus or intensify actions in communities that are characterized by the presence of the risks identified in the present study.

  19. Secular trends in the etiology and comorbidity of hospitalized patients with congestive heart failure: A single-center retrospective study

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zhi-Yong Pei; Yu-Sheng Zhao; Jia-Yue Li; Qiao Xue; Lei Gao; Shi-Wen Wang

    2012-01-01

    Objective To assess the secular trends in the etiology and comorbidity of patients hospitalized with congestive heart failure (CHF). Methods Data of 7,319 patients (mean age 59.6 years, 62.1% male) with a primary discharge diagnosis of CHF, hospitalized from January 1, 1993 to December 31, 2007 at the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) General Hospital were extracted and analyzed. These patients were divided into three groups according to hospitalization period: 1993-1997 (n = 1623), 1998-2002 (n = 2444), and 2003-2007 (n = 3252). The etiological characteristics and comorbidities were assessed. Results Over the study period, the proportion of patients with ischemic heart disease (IHD) increased from 37.2% during the period 1993-1997 to 46.8% during the period 2003-2007, while that with valvular heart disease (VHD) decreased from 35.2% during the period 1993-1997 to 16.6% during the period 2003-2007 (both P < 0.05). Atrial fibrillation (AF) was the most common comorbidity of heart failure (23.2%, 23.0% and 20.6%, respectively, in the three periods). Compared to that of the period of 1993-1997 with that of, the proportion of patients with myocardial infarction, pneumonia, renal function impairment and hepatic cirrhosis of the period of 2003-2007 increased significantly (P < 0.05) and the proportion of patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and atrial fibrillation decreased significantly (P < 0.05). Conclusions This study implies that IHD has became a more common etiology of CHF, while VHD has deceased as an etiology of CHF in Chinese patients during the last two decades.

  20. Secular trends and factors associated with overweight among Brazilian preschool children: PNSN-1989, PNDS-1996, and 2006/07.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silveira, Jonas Augusto C; Colugnati, Fernando Antônio B; Cocetti, Monize; Taddei, José Augusto A C

    2014-01-01

    to describe the secular trends in overweight among preschool children in the years 1989, 1996, and 2006, and to identify risk factors associated with this condition in 2006. anthropometric data from three surveys (1989, 1996, and 2006) with a representative sample of the population were analyzed. Overweight was defined as the weight-for-height Z-score. The multivariable models of overweight association with risk factors were generated by Poisson regression, and the estimates were shown as prevalence ratios with their respective 95% confidence intervals (PR [95% CI]). throughout the 17-year period studied, the relative prevalence of overweight in preschoolers increased by 160% in Brazil, representing an increase of 9.4% per year. Based on data from the National Survey on Demography and Health of Women and Children - 2006/07, four multivariable models were created (macro-environmental, maternal, individual, and final model) assuming hierarchy among the risk factors. In the final model, only the following remained associated with overweight: regions South/Southeast (1.55 [1.17 to 2.06]), middle-class (1.35 [1.02 to 1.77]), maternal obesity (1.66 [1.22 to 2.27]), birth weight ≥ 3.9kg (1.87 [1.31 to 2.67]), and being an only child or having only one sibling (1.81 [1.31 to 2.49]). the prevalence of overweight among preschool children in Brazil has increased dramatically over the past 17 years, and it was higher in the 1996-2006 period. Future strategies for prevention and control of overweight in public health should focus or intensify actions in communities that are characterized by the presence of the risks identified in the present study. Copyright © 2013 Sociedade Brasileira de Pediatria. Published by Elsevier Editora Ltda. All rights reserved.

  1. [Secular trends in the etiology of nosocomial infection at a teaching hospital in Taiwan, 1981-1994].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, M L; Chen, Y C; Pan, H J; Chang, S C; Yang, L S; Ho, S W; Luh, K T; Hsieh, W C; Chuang, C Y

    1995-08-01

    Surveillance system of nosocomial infection was established in 1980 at the National Taiwan University Hospital (NTUH). To identify pathogens and the secular trends in the etiology of nosocomial infection from 1981 to 1994, the prospective, hospital-wide nosocomial surveillance data were analysed. During this period, 22,146 pathogens causing nosocomial infections were isolated. Gram-negative aerobic bacteria remained the major pathogens, but gram-positive cocci and fungi increased rapidly in the past 14 years. When the overall pathogen distribution is examined, Pseudomonas areuginosa was the most frequently isolated pathogen, but Candida albicans and other yeasts have taken the leading position since 1993. Staphylococcus aureus and coagulase-negative staphylococci also increase significantly in recent years. When the pathogens causing infection at the 4 major sites were examined. P. aeruginosa was the pathogen most often associated with respiratory tract and surgical wound infections. In blood stream and urinary tract infections, we observed Escherichia coli was replaced by C. albicans and other yeasts as a most common isolate in these years. In addition, C. albicans and other yeasts and methicillin-resistant S. aureus (MRSA) are emerging as major nosocomial pathogens at NTUH. C. albicans and other yeast increased from 1.8% in 1981 to 14.9% in 1994 in the overall nosocomial infection. The increase was found in the blood stream (2.1% to 16.2%) and urinary tract infections (5.4% to 24.7%). Of 1,742 nosocomial S. aureus isolates, the percentage of MRSA rose from 12.5% in 1981 to 55.2% in 1994. The high percentage of MRSA was observed at 4 major anatomic sites of infection. In summary, significant shifts in the pathogens of nosocomial infection have occurred in the past 14 years at NTUH, and the distribution of nosocomial pathogens was similar to those reported in the United States in recent years.

  2. Secular Decrease the Flux of Supernova Remnant CAS a on Monitoring Results to Radiotelescope "URAN-4" Ira Nasu

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gorbynov, A. A.; Ryabov, M. I.; Panishko, S. K.

    This work is dedicated to the study of secular decrease of the flux of young supernova remnant Cas A according to observations by radio- telescope "URAN-4" of Odessa Observatory IRA NASU from 1987 to 2001 years on frequency of 25 MHz. On the investigation base there is a relationship analysis of flux CasA to the "stable" source - radio-galaxy Cyg A (CasA/Cyg A) which is located on a small angular distance. Results of the observations held on RT "URAN-4" show that there is no noticeable decrease of fluxes in the period 1987-1993, with the relationship ratio (CasA/Cyg A) = 1.5. While considering data from 1987 to 2001 manifested a slight decrease trend in flux equal to 8.4% for the all period. At the same time, according to various investigations the average value flux of Cas A in the interval of frequencies 38-2924 MHz is 0.8% per year. At the meantime in this frequency the range ratio (CasA/Cyg A) has become less than one. Thus, there is a noticable contradiction of secular decrease of the flux Cas A on this radio frequencies in comparison with the predictions of the theory in 1.7% per year.

  3. Incidence of infective endocarditis in England, 2000-13: a secular trend, interrupted time-series analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dayer, Mark J; Jones, Simon; Prendergast, Bernard; Baddour, Larry M; Lockhart, Peter B; Thornhill, Martin H

    2015-03-28

    Antibiotic prophylaxis given before invasive dental procedures in patients at risk of developing infective endocarditis has historically been the focus of infective endocarditis prevention. Recent changes in antibiotic prophylaxis guidelines in the USA and Europe have substantially reduced the number of patients for whom antibiotic prophylaxis is recommended. In the UK, guidelines from the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) recommended complete cessation of antibiotic prophylaxis for prevention of infective endocarditis in March, 2008. We aimed to investigate changes in the prescribing of antibiotic prophylaxis and the incidence of infective endocarditis since the introduction of these guidelines. We did a retrospective secular trend study, analysed as an interrupted time series, to investigate the effect of antibiotic prophylaxis versus no prophylaxis on the incidence of infective endocarditis in England. We analysed data for the prescription of antibiotic prophylaxis from Jan 1, 2004, to March 31, 2013, and hospital discharge episode statistics for patients with a primary diagnosis of infective endocarditis from Jan 1, 2000, to March 31, 2013. We compared the incidence of infective endocarditis before and after the introduction of the NICE guidelines using segmented regression analysis of the interrupted time series. Prescriptions of antibiotic prophylaxis for the prevention of infective endocarditis fell substantially after introduction of the NICE guidance (mean 10,900 prescriptions per month [Jan 1, 2004, to March 31, 2008] vs 2236 prescriptions per month [April 1, 2008, to March 31, 2013], pendocarditis increased significantly above the projected historical trend, by 0·11 cases per 10 million people per month (95% CI 0·05-0·16, pendocarditis was significant for both individuals at high risk of infective endocarditis and those at lower risk. Although our data do not establish a causal association, prescriptions of antibiotic

  4. Initial Findings from an Improved GNSS Solution for Long Term Monitoring of New Zealand's Secular and Earthquake Induced Deformation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, D. N.; Crook, C.

    2016-12-01

    New Zealand's unique position straddling the Australian and Pacific plate boundary ensures that it experiences both secular tectonic plate motion, and non-secular motions associated with earthquakes. The purpose of the 39 PositioNZ network CORS sites, jointly operated by Land Information New Zealand and GeoNet, are to maintain the national datum as these sporadic and ongoing events occur. Positions and velocities from these sites are integrated into the deformation model which translates between the present ITRF coordinates from GNSS into New Zealand's national datum NZGD2000. The Long Term Monitoring of land movements in New Zealand is carried out through a homogeneous reprocessing of the historical data for 39 CORS sites and 194 IGB08 global reference sites using a double difference strategy. This global solution is computed using Bernese GNSS software and CODE's reprocessed EGSIEM products and Final orbits and earth rotation parameters. A priori troposphere values are interpolated from gridded VMF1G files based on the ECMWF values, and these are mapped using the Vienna Mapping function. The network is aligned to the IGB08 reference frame through the 194 core reference stations using minimal constraints. The results of this reprocessing solution will be presented and discussed. The time series effects of various types of earthquakes will be shown as well as various methods of modelling these time series for datum maintenance. Additionally, the impacts of the new homogeneous processing strategy on the noise, position, and computed velocities will be outlined.

  5. Secular trends in birthweight.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oken, Emily

    2013-01-01

    From the mid- to late 20th century, average birthweight increased in many countries, including the United States. However, more recent data now suggest that mean birthweight has begun to decline. The most recent US data indicate that in 2008, compared with 1990, about half as many babies were macrosomic at birth (≥5,000 g), whereas there was a 17% increase in low birthweight (gestation length and corresponding increases in rates of preterm and early term birth over the past several decades. However, available data suggest that fetal growth has also declined independent of gestational age at birth. Since 2000, rates of small for gestational age have increased, whereas rates of large for gestational age have decreased. Declines in birthweight and macrosomia are most likely largely explained by decreases in gestation length, itself caused by obstetric interventions, especially induction of labor and to a lesser extent elective cesarean delivery. However, it appears that fetal growth is also declining, at least in some settings, independent of gestation length. Reasons for this decline are as of yet unexplained and merit further investigation.

  6. Monitoring Obesity Trends in Health Japan 21.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nishi, Nobuo

    2015-01-01

    Prevention of non-communicable diseases is more important than ever especially for the elderly to live a healthy life in the super-aged society of Japan. In 2000, the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare of Japan started Health Japan 21 as goal-oriented health promotion plan like Healthy People in the US and the Health of the Nation in the UK. Its second term started in 2013 with the aim of prolonging healthy life expectancy and reducing health inequalities. Improvement in both individuals' lifestyle and their social environment will help achieve the goal of the 2nd Health Japan 21. The National Health and Nutrition Survey (NHNS) is conducted every year to monitor the health and nutritional situation of the Japanese using a representative population. The NHNS data are useful for target setting and evaluation of the 2nd Health Japan 21, and the NHNS has shown an increasing trend of overweight (BMI≥25) only for male adults in the most recent 10 y. In contrast, the dietary intake survey of the NHNS shows a decreasing trend of total energy intake both in male and female adults aged 69 y old or younger, and the trend for physical activity is not well known. Thus, we need further investigations on the causes of the obesity trend in Japan.

  7. Tendência secular em estatura em recrutas da Marinha do Brasil nascidos entre 1940 e 1965 Secular trends in the stature of Brazilian Navy recruits born from 1940 to 1965

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    Gilberto Kac

    1998-07-01

    Full Text Available O presente artigo apresenta dados sobre tendência secular em estatura em recrutas da Marinha do Brasil nascidos no período 1940-1965. A amostra final constituiu-se de 3.269 indivíduos com idade entre 18,00-18,99 anos. Foram realizadas as análises estatísticas: Anova (one-way e two-way, teste de Sheffe, regressão simples entre estatura e ano de nascimento e múltipla, controlando para escolaridade (coeficiente angular, e Qui-Quadrado. Os resultados demonstraram existência de um aumento progressivo em estatura da ordem de 0,1 cm/ano para o conjunto das regiões do País. Também se verificou tendência positiva em quase todas regiões e estratos de escolaridade. Em nível nacional, este aumento pode ser atribuído a melhorias em alguns indicadores sanitários. Argumenta-se que os resultados não podem ser diretamente extrapolados para a população brasileira como um todo, uma vez que os jovens que se alistam na Marinha apresentam um perfil antropométrico e sócio-econômico diferenciado daquele da população geral.The present paper reports data on secular trends in the stature of Brazilian Navy recruits born from 1940 to 1965. The final sample included 3269 individuals aged 18.00-18.99. Statistics performed were: Anova (one-way and two-way, Sheffe test, simple linear regression between stature and year of birth, and multiple linear regression adjusting for level of schooling (beta coefficient and chi-square. Results indicated a progressive growth trend in stature of 0.1 cm/yr. for the country as a whole. The trend was also observed for nearly all regions and two out of three levels of schooling and can be explained by improvement in some of the country's health indicators. One important characteristic was a higher level of schooling observed among Navy recruits, suggesting that these individuals represent a highly select group, and that therefore data on the Navy cannot be applied directly to the Brazilian population as a whole.

  8. [Secular trend of growth in stature in Florianópolis in the state of Santa Catarina (Brazil) in relation with the human development index (HDI)].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pinheiro, Andressa Caroline Carneiro; Niederauer, Juliana Minuzzi; Vargas, Deisi Maria

    2014-01-01

    The article seks to evaluate the secular trend of growth in stature of recruits in the 63rd Infantry Battalion in Florianópolis and correlate the information with the human development index (HDI). It involves a transversal and retrospective study of recruits aged between 18 and 20 who joined the 63rd IB in Florianópolis from 1963 to 2007. The sample comprised 600 individuals out of a total of 3000 recruits enlisted over the period. In each decade, three years were selected and within these years the first 40 files were systematically selected for analysis. It was seen that there was an increase in the order of 7 cm in height of recruits in Florianopolis over the past 47 years. This increase was more marked between the decades of 1990 and 2000, with the municipality of Blumenau having the highest average. The average heights study over the decades showed a strong positive correlation with the HDI of Florianopolis during the same period. When comparing the heights of the capital of Santa Catarina and previous studies in Blumenau, it was found that both cities have achieved the same increase of 1.4 cm/decade in the period between the 1960 and 2000. There was a positive secular trend in growth in Florianopolis, with a strong correlation with HDI values of the city between 1960 and 2000.

  9. Infecciones nosocomiales: tendencias seculares de un programa de control en México Nosocomial infections: Secular trends of a control program in Mexico

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    Samuel Ponce de León

    1999-01-01

    Full Text Available OBJETIVO. Determinar la frecuencia de infecciones nosocomiales en el Instituto Nacional de la Nutrición Salvador Zubirán (INNSZ desde la instauración del programa de vigilancia hasta la actualidad y conocer su impacto en estancia hospitalaria y mortalidad. MATERIAL Y MÉTODOS. Se realizó un estudio descriptivo, retrospectivo y retrolectivo en un hospital de referencia de tercer nivel de atención. Se obtuvieron las frecuencias, el tipo y la distribución de infecciones nosocomiales de la base de datos del Departamento de Epidemiología Hospitalaria entre 1991 y 1996. Se determinó en cada paciente el grado de gravedad de su enfermedad mediante la escala de McCabe-Jackson, así como la edad promedio y el tiempo de estancia hospitaria. Se aplicó la prueba de ji² para tendencias de los diferentes parámetros evaluados. El estudio se dividió en tres etapas: prerremodelación (1991-1993, remodelación (1994-1995 y posremodelación (1996. Se compararon los periodos prerremodelación contra posremodelación. RESULTADOS. Durante este periodo (1991-1996 la tasa de infecciones nosocomiales fue de 8.6 por 100 egresos en promedio, con una disminución de 20% en su frecuencia a lo largo del mismo (pOBJECTIVE. To know the trend of nosocomial infections rates at a third level hospital since the begining of the infection control program until the present and to evaluate the impact in mortality and length of hospital stay. MATERIAL AND METHODS. A study descriptive, retrospective and retrolective was done in a reference hospital providing tertiary care in Mexico City. Recorded data included rates, type of nosocomial infections and distribution of nosocomial infections from the database of Hospital Epidemiology Division between 1991 to 1996. In every patient the degree of severity disease was evaluated according to the McCabe-Jackson's scale, we also collected age and the length of stay. Statistical analysis was done with chi² test for tendencies of

  10. Current Trends in Continuous Glucose Monitoring.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lodwig, Volker; Kulzer, Bernhard; Schnell, Oliver; Heinemann, Lutz

    2014-03-01

    The market introduction of systems for continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) some 15 years ago did not immediately revolutionize the treatment of diabetes; however, for a given group of patients, it would almost be inconceivable nowadays to imagine life without CGM. One day the development of insulin pumps together with CGM could culminate in an artificial pancreas system. The performance of the glucose sensors used for glucose measurement in the interstitial fluid in the subcutaneous tissue and the algorithms employed to analyze these data have improved so much over the past decade that current CGM systems by far outperform those of the first generations. This commentary discusses a number of aspects about what we have learned since CGM systems entered the market and what current trends exist in their usage. Some of these are major hurdles facing a more widespread usage of CGM.

  11. Tendência secular da peste no Estado do Ceará, Brasil Secular plague trend in Ceará State, Brazil

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    Antonia Ivoneida Aragão

    2007-03-01

    Full Text Available Após a sua introdução no Ceará, Brasil, em 1900, a peste focalizou-se em sete complexos ecológicos: Chapada do Araripe e Serras da Ibiapaba, do Baturité, do Machado, das Matas, da Pedra Branca e de Uruburetama. As atividades de vigilância nesses focos no período de 1935/2004 foram desenvolvidas sucessivamente pelo Departamento Nacional de Saúde, Serviço Nacional de Peste, Departamento Nacional de Endemias Rurais, Superintendência de Campanhas de Saúde Pública, Fundação Nacional de Saúde e finalmente pela Secretaria de Vigilância em Saúde. A análise dos dados levantados sobre a ocorrência de casos humanos nesses 70 anos permite identificar diferentes padrões de circulação da enfermidade na população humana, caracterizados pela alternância de momentos de elevadas incidências e de silêncio, possibilitando estabelecer uma periodização cronológica com características epidemiológicas próprias. Conclui-se desses resultados que a peste ainda deve ser considerada uma ameaça potencial, o que justifica revitalizar as ações de vigilância epidemiológica, o que só ocorrerá com o fortalecimento de todas as instâncias do Sistema Único de Saúde.After its introduction into the State of Ceará, Brazil, in 1900, the plague was established in seven ecological complexes: Chapada do Araripe and the Ibiapaba, Baturité, Machado, Matas, Pedra Branca, and Uruburetama mountains. These natural foci were monitored successively from 1935 to 2004 by the National Health Department, National Plague Service, National Department of Rural Endemics, Superintendency of Public Health Campaigns, National Health Foundation, and finally by the National Health Surveillance Secretariat. Data analysis on human cases during these 70 years allowing identifying different plague circulation patterns in the human population, alternating high incidence with silent periods and characterizing a chronological periodicity with unique epidemiological

  12. Continuous glucose monitoring and trend accuracy: news about a trend compass.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Signal, Matthew; Gottlieb, Rebecca; Le Compte, Aaron; Chase, J Geoffrey

    2014-09-01

    Continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) devices are being increasingly used to monitor glycemia in people with diabetes. One advantage with CGM is the ability to monitor the trend of sensor glucose (SG) over time. However, there are few metrics available for assessing the trend accuracy of CGM devices. The aim of this study was to develop an easy to interpret tool for assessing trend accuracy of CGM data. SG data from CGM were compared to hourly blood glucose (BG) measurements and trend accuracy was quantified using the dot product. Trend accuracy results are displayed on the Trend Compass, which depicts trend accuracy as a function of BG. A trend performance table and Trend Index (TI) metric are also proposed. The Trend Compass was tested using simulated CGM data with varying levels of error and variability, as well as real clinical CGM data. The results show that the Trend Compass is an effective tool for differentiating good trend accuracy from poor trend accuracy, independent of glycemic variability. Furthermore, the real clinical data show that the Trend Compass assesses trend accuracy independent of point bias error. Finally, the importance of assessing trend accuracy as a function of BG level is highlighted in a case example of low and falling BG data, with corresponding rising SG data. This study developed a simple to use tool for quantifying trend accuracy. The resulting trend accuracy is easily interpreted on the Trend Compass plot, and if required, performance table and TI metric. © 2014 Diabetes Technology Society.

  13. Fearing Secularism

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sheikh, Mona Kanwal

    Secularism and Beyond - Comparative Perspectives: International og interdisciplinær konference, 29. maj-1. juni, 2007Arrangeret af Anders Berg-Sørensen for "Religion i det 21. århundrede" i samarbejde med kolleger fraKøbenhavns Universitet og universiteterne i Wien og Birmingham......Secularism and Beyond - Comparative Perspectives: International og interdisciplinær konference, 29. maj-1. juni, 2007Arrangeret af Anders Berg-Sørensen for "Religion i det 21. århundrede" i samarbejde med kolleger fraKøbenhavns Universitet og universiteterne i Wien og Birmingham...

  14. The Influence of Secular Trends in Body Height and Weight on the Prevalence of Overweight and Obesity among Chinese Children and Adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fu, Lian Guo; Sun, Li Li; Wu, Shao Wei; Yang, Yi De; Li, Xiao Hui; Wang, Zheng He; Wu, Lu; Wang, Fu Zhi; Ma, Jun

    2016-12-01

    To explore the influence of secular trends in body height and weight on the prevalence of overweight and obesity among Chinese children and adolescents. The data were obtained from five cross-sectional Chinese National Surveys on Students' Constitution and Health. Overweight/obesity was defined as BMI-for-age Z-score of per the Wold Health Organization (WHO) reference values. Body height and weight for each sex and age were standardized to those reported in 1985 (standardized height: SHY; standardized weight: SWY) and for each sex and year at age 7 (standardized height: SHA; standardized weight: SWA) using the Z-score method. The prevalence of overweight/obesity in Chinese children was 20.2% among boys and 10.7% among girls in 2010 and increased continuously from 1985 to 2010. Among boys and girls of normal weight, SHY and SHA were significantly greater than SWY and SWA, respectively (P SHY was significantly lower than SWY (P SHY/SHW and SHA/SWA among normal-weight groups were greater than among overweight and obese groups (P < 0.001). The continuous increase in the prevalence of overweight/obesity among Chinese children may be related to a rapid increase in body weight before age 9 and lack of secular increase in body height after age 12. Copyright © 2016 The Editorial Board of Biomedical and Environmental Sciences. Published by China CDC. All rights reserved.

  15. Do today's young people really think they are so extraordinary? An examination of secular trends in narcissism and self-enhancement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trzesniewski, Kali H; Donnellan, M Brent; Robins, Richard W

    2008-02-01

    The present research investigated secular trends in narcissism and self-enhancement over the past three decades. Despite recent claims about the impact of the "self-esteem movement" on the current generation of young people, we found no evidence that college students' scores on the Narcissistic Personality Inventory increased from the 1980s through 2007 (N= 26,867), although we did find small changes in specific facets of narcissism. Similarly, we found no evidence that high school students' level of self-enhancement, defined by the discrepancy between their perceived intelligence and their actual academic achievements, increased from 1976 to 2006 (N= 410,527). These results cast doubt on the belief that today's young people have increasingly inflated impressions of themselves compared with previous generations.

  16. Secular Trends in Prevalence of Overweight and Obesity among Adults in Rural Tianjin, China from 1991 to 2011: A Population-Based Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ning, Xianjia; Zhan, Changqing; Yang, Yihe; Yang, Li; Tu, Jun; Gu, Hongfei; Su, Ta-Chen; Wang, Jinghua

    2014-01-01

    Objectives Obesity is associated with cardiovascular diseases and has become the main public health issue in western countries and urban China. However, the prevalence and secular trends of obesity in rural China are currently unknown. The aim of this study was to investigate secular trends in the prevalence of overweight and obesity among rural adults in northern China between 1991 and 2011. Method The prevalence of overweight and obesity was assessed in adults aged 35–74 years living in a rural area in northern China by comparing two surveys that were conducted in 1991 and 2011, respectively. Result The age-adjusted prevalence of overweight increased from 24.5% in 1991 to 42.0% in 2011, and the prevalence of obesity increased from 5.7% in 1991 to 19.6% in 2011. Over the 21-year period, there were significant increases in the prevalence of overweight and obesity for both men and women in all age groups; however, the greatest increase was observed in men aged 35–44 years, with an 10.3-fold increase in obesity prevalence. The prevalence of obesity increased significantly in all risk factors categories, including education levels, blood pressure categories, diabetes previous history, current smoking situation and alcohol drinking situation over the past 21 years overall (p<0.05). The greatest increase in obesity prevalence appeared among those who consumed alcohol (increased by 8.0-fold). Next, there was a 5.3-fold increase in the prevalence of obesity in illiterate residents. Conclusion The prevalence of overweight and obesity has increased rapidly among rural adults in Tianjin over the past 21 years, with the most dramatic increase observed in young men. Therefore, the burden of obesity should serve as a call for action. PMID:25544990

  17. Secular trends in prevalence of overweight and obesity among adults in rural Tianjin, China from 1991 to 2011: a population-based study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xianjia Ning

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVES: Obesity is associated with cardiovascular diseases and has become the main public health issue in western countries and urban China. However, the prevalence and secular trends of obesity in rural China are currently unknown. The aim of this study was to investigate secular trends in the prevalence of overweight and obesity among rural adults in northern China between 1991 and 2011. METHOD: The prevalence of overweight and obesity was assessed in adults aged 35-74 years living in a rural area in northern China by comparing two surveys that were conducted in 1991 and 2011, respectively. RESULT: The age-adjusted prevalence of overweight increased from 24.5% in 1991 to 42.0% in 2011, and the prevalence of obesity increased from 5.7% in 1991 to 19.6% in 2011. Over the 21-year period, there were significant increases in the prevalence of overweight and obesity for both men and women in all age groups; however, the greatest increase was observed in men aged 35-44 years, with an 10.3-fold increase in obesity prevalence. The prevalence of obesity increased significantly in all risk factors categories, including education levels, blood pressure categories, diabetes previous history, current smoking situation and alcohol drinking situation over the past 21 years overall (p<0.05. The greatest increase in obesity prevalence appeared among those who consumed alcohol (increased by 8.0-fold. Next, there was a 5.3-fold increase in the prevalence of obesity in illiterate residents. CONCLUSION: The prevalence of overweight and obesity has increased rapidly among rural adults in Tianjin over the past 21 years, with the most dramatic increase observed in young men. Therefore, the burden of obesity should serve as a call for action.

  18. Secular trends in prevalence of overweight and obesity from 2006 to 2009 in urban asian Indian adolescents aged 14-17 years.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Deepak Kumar Gupta

    Full Text Available The present study examines the secular trends in prevalence of overweight and obesity among urban Asian Indian adolescents in New Delhi (North India. The data were derived from cross-sectional sampling of children, 3493 in year 2006 and 4908 in year 2009, aged 14-17 years studying in privately-funded and government-funded schools. Age, gender and Asian Indian-specific cut offs of body mass index (BMI were used to define overweight and obesity. The prevalence of obesity increased significantly from 9.8% in 2006 to 11.7% in 2009 (p<0.01, whereas underweight decreased from 11.3% to 3.9% (p<0.001. There was a significantly higher risk of being overweight (OR 1.28; 95% CI, 1.15-1.42 and obese (OR 1.44; 95% CI, 1.24-1.66 in year 2009 than 2006, after adjusting for age, gender and type of school. Males and privately-funded school children had significantly higher increase in prevalence and risk of being overweight and obese over the three years. In conclusion, this study showed an increasing trend in prevalence of overweight and obesity in urban Asian Indian adolescents. More specifically, the study showed the association of this increasing trend of overweight and obesity prevalence with male gender and high socio-economic status, calling for an urgent need for immediate and targeted preventive measures.

  19. Secular Trends in Prevalence of Overweight and Obesity from 2006 to 2009 in Urban Asian Indian Adolescents Aged 14-17 Years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gupta, Deepak Kumar; Shah, Priyali; Misra, Anoop; Bharadwaj, Swati; Gulati, Seema; Gupta, Nidhi; Sharma, Rekha; Pandey, Ravindra M.; Goel, Kashish

    2011-01-01

    The present study examines the secular trends in prevalence of overweight and obesity among urban Asian Indian adolescents in New Delhi (North India). The data were derived from cross-sectional sampling of children, 3493 in year 2006 and 4908 in year 2009, aged 14–17 years studying in privately-funded and government-funded schools. Age, gender and Asian Indian-specific cut offs of body mass index (BMI) were used to define overweight and obesity. The prevalence of obesity increased significantly from 9.8% in 2006 to 11.7% in 2009 (pobese (OR 1.44; 95% CI, 1.24–1.66) in year 2009 than 2006, after adjusting for age, gender and type of school. Males and privately-funded school children had significantly higher increase in prevalence and risk of being overweight and obese over the three years. In conclusion, this study showed an increasing trend in prevalence of overweight and obesity in urban Asian Indian adolescents. More specifically, the study showed the association of this increasing trend of overweight and obesity prevalence with male gender and high socio-economic status, calling for an urgent need for immediate and targeted preventive measures. PMID:21383840

  20. Secular trends and latitude gradients in the male-female ratio at birth in Yugoslavia and the ex-Yugoslavian States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grech, Victor

    2013-01-01

    Latitude gradients and secular trends in Europe and North America have been found in the male-female ratio at birth (M/F: male births divided by total births) which approximates 0.515. Annual national data for Yugoslavia and the post-Yugoslavia States for male and female live births were obtained from the World Health Organisation and analysed with contingency tables. This study analysed 22,020,729 live births. There was a increasing trend in M/F prior to the breakup of the former Yugoslavia (1950-1990, p = 0.002), followed by a decreasing trend after 1990 (p = 0.02). A latitude gradient was also noted, with more males being born in southern, warmer latitudes (p < 0.0001). There was an overall excess of 42,753 male births based on an anticipated M/F of 0.515. M/F is decreasing in this region, similar to the rest of Europe and North America. A latitude gradient is also present with more males being born in warmer (more Southern) latitudes (p < 0.0001), even in this small region and over the short time-frame studied.

  1. Tendência secular das parasitoses intestinais na infância na cidade de São Paulo (1984-1996 Secular trends in child intestinal parasitic diseases in S. Paulo city, Brazil (1984-1996

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcelo Urbano Ferreira

    2000-12-01

    refreou o declínio da giardíase.OBJECTIVE: Data from two consecutive household surveys undertaken in mid-80s and mid-90s allow to characterize and analyse secular trends in infant and child intestinal parasitic diseases in the city of S. Paulo, Brazil. METHODS: The two surveys included random population samples aged from zero to 59 months (1,016 in the period of 1984-85 and 1,280 in 1995-96. Stool samples were collected in both surveys and examined by sedimentation techniques using both unstained and Lugol-stained preparations. For each survey, the study of the social distribution of the parasitic diseases took into account tertiles of the per capita family income. For the study of the determinants of secular trends, hierarchical causal models, multivariate regression analyses and calculations analogous to the ones used to assess population attributable risks were applied. RESULTS/CONCLUSIONS: In the time span from the first to the second survey, there was a substantial reduction in the prevalence of all parasites (from 30.9% to 10.7%, helminthes in general (from 22.3% to 4.8%, giardiasis (from 14.5% to 5.5% and two or more species of parasites (from 13.1% to 0.5%. A significant decline in prevalence was observed in all social strata and the inverse association between income and intestinal parasites was kept unchanged in the period. Positive changes in distal (family income and maternal schooling and intermediate determinants (housing, sanitation, and access to health care of helminthic disease could substantially explain part of its decline in the period. The decline in giardiasis was attributed to improvement in maternal schooling, housing and sanitation. The duplication in the attendance rate to day care nurseries may have restricted the decline rate in the giardiasis prevalence in the study period.

  2. Drinking water quality monitoring using trend analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tomperi, Jani; Juuso, Esko; Eteläniemi, Mira; Leiviskä, Kauko

    2014-06-01

    One of the common quality parameters for drinking water is residual aluminium. High doses of residual aluminium in drinking water or water used in the food industry have been proved to be at least a minor health risk or even to increase the risk of more serious health effects, and cause economic losses to the water treatment plant. In this study, the trend index is developed from scaled measurement data to detect a warning of changes in residual aluminium level in drinking water. The scaling is based on monotonously increasing, non-linear functions, which are generated with generalized norms and moments. Triangular episodes are classified with the trend index and its derivative. The severity of the situations is evaluated by deviation indices. The trend episodes and the deviation indices provide good tools for detecting changes in water quality and for process control.

  3. US Forest Service Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Forest Service, Department of Agriculture — The Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity (MTBS) project maps the location, extent, and severity of all large fires in the conterminous United States (CONUS), Alaska,...

  4. Secular trends in the fat and fat-free components of body mass index in children aged 8–18 years born 1958–1995

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, William; Chumlea, Wm. Cameron; Czerwinski, Stefan A.; Demerath, Ellen W.

    2014-01-01

    Background It is unknown whether the secular trend in childhood BMI reflects increases in fat-free mass as well as fat mass. Methods This study decomposed BMI trends in 488 participants in the Fels Longitudinal Study born between 1958–1995 and aged 8–17.99 years into their fat and fat-free components. Generalized estimating equations estimated birth year cohort (1958–1970–1971–1983–1984–1995) effects on 2208 observations of BMI, fat mass index (FMI = fat mass (kg)/height (m)2) and fat-free mass index (FFMI = fat-free mass (kg)/height (m)2). Results BMI in boys increased across cohorts, with those born between 1984–1995 being 2 kg/m2 larger than those born between 1958–1970 (p = 0.001) and increases in FMI were highly significant (p-values < 0.001). FFMI did not differ by cohort. In girls, there was a significant advantage in BMI (1.2 kg/m2) and FFMI (0.8 kg/m2) of the 1984–1995 cohort compared to the 1971–1983 cohort (p-values < 0.05). Conclusions Because the long term trend in childhood BMI in boys appears to be driven by an increase in total body adiposity, evidence is provided to support current knowledge on the predicted deleterious long-term consequences of the childhood obesity epidemic in boys. Research is needed to confirm whether recent changes in BMI in girls are due to increases in fat-free mass resulting from changes in behaviour and lifestyle not yet manifest in boys. PMID:23013058

  5. Secular trends in caesarean section rates over 20 years in a regional obstetric unit in Hong Kong.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chung, W H; Kong, C W; To, W Wk

    2017-08-01

    Although caesarean section rates have been increasing over the years in both public and private sectors in Hong Kong, there has been a paucity of formal surveys on local trends in such rates. This study aimed to examine the trends in caesarean section rates over a 20-year period at a public regional obstetric unit in Hong Kong using the Robson's Ten-group Classification System. All deliveries in a single obstetric unit during a 20-year period (1995-2014) were classified into 10 subgroups according to the Robson's classification. The annual caesarean section rate for each subgroup was calculated and then stratified into 5-year intervals to analyse any significant trends. The caesarean section rates in a total of 86 262 births with complete data were analysed. The overall caesarean section rate increased modestly from 15.4% to 24.6% during the study period. There was an obvious increasing trend for caesarean section in those with previous caesarean section (Robson's category 5), breech presentation at delivery (category 6 and 7), multiple pregnancy (category 8), and preterm labour (category 10). A gradual fall in caesarean section rate from 14.4% to 10.8% was seen in primiparous women with term spontaneous labour (category 1). Statistically significant differences (Psection rate may be associated with clinical management policies that allow women with relative risk factors (such as breech, previous caesarean section, or multiple pregnancy) to opt for caesarean section. This rise was counterbalanced by a decrease in primary caesarean section rate in primiparous women with spontaneous labour. The trend for caesarean section was more in line with patient expectations rather than evidence-based practice.

  6. Absolute gravity observations in Norway (1993-2014) for glacial isostatic adjustment studies: The influence of gravitational loading effects on secular gravity trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ophaug, Vegard; Breili, Kristian; Gerlach, Christian; Omholt Gjevestad, Jon Glenn; Lysaker, Dagny Iren; Dahl Omang, Ove Christian; Pettersen, Bjørn Ragnvald

    2016-12-01

    We have compiled and analyzed FG5 absolute gravity observations between 1993 and 2014 at 21 gravity sites in Norway, and explore to what extent these observations are applicable for glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) studies. Where available, raw gravity observations are consistently reprocessed. Furthermore, refined gravitational corrections due to ocean tide loading and non-tidal ocean loading, as well as atmospheric and global hydrological mass variations are computed. Secular gravity trends are computed using both standard and refined corrections and subsequently compared with modeled gravity rates based on a GIA model. We find that the refined gravitational corrections mainly improve rates where GIA, according to model results, is not the dominating signal. Consequently, these rates may still be considered unreliable for constraining GIA models, which we trace to continued lack of a correction for the effect of local hydrology, shortcomings in our refined modeling of gravitational effects, and scarcity of observations. Finally, a subset of standard and refined gravity rates mainly reflecting GIA is used to estimate ratios between gravity and height rates of change by ordinary and weighted linear regression. Relations based on both standard and refined gravity rates are within the uncertainty of a recent modeled result.

  7. 40 CFR 52.140 - Monitoring transportation trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 3 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Monitoring transportation trends. 52.140 Section 52.140 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) APPROVAL AND PROMULGATION OF IMPLEMENTATION PLANS Arizona § 52.140 Monitoring...

  8. Secular trends in the rate of low birth weight in Brazilian State Capitals in the period 1996 to 2010 Tendencia secular de la tasa de bajo peso al nacer en las capitales brasileñas de 1996 a 2010 Tendência secular da taxa de baixo peso ao nascer nas capitais brasileiras de 1996 a 2010

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Helma Jane Ferreira Veloso

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Secular trends in rates of low birth weight in Brazilian state capital cities were evaluated for the period 1996 to 2010 using joinpoint regression models. The rates were calculated using data from the Live Births Information System. Newborns weighing less than 500g were excluded. Only data for capital cities was included since under-registration of births in these cities is lower and new trends can be detected earlier. There was a significant increase in the rate of low birth weight in the Brazilian capitals of the North Region, Northeast Region, South Region and Southeast Region up to 2003/2004, stabilizing thereafter. In the capitals of the Center-west Region the rate increased throughout the whole study period. The rate of low birth weight was higher in the capitals of the more developed regions. The rate of multiple births increased significantly in all Brazilian capitals, while the stillbirth rate decreased and showed a negative correlation with the rate of low birth weight. The increase in the rate of low birth weight may be partially explained by the increase in multiple births, an increase in the birth of infants weighing 500 to 999g and by the reduction in the stillbirth rate.La tendencia secular de la tasa de bajo peso al nacer de 1996 a 2010 en las capitales brasileñas se evaluó utilizando modelos de regresión joinpoint. Las tasas se calcularon a partir del Sistema de Información sobre Nacidos Vivos, excluyéndose recién nacidos con un peso A tendência secular da taxa de baixo peso ao nascer de 1996 a 2010 nas capitais brasileiras foi avaliada utilizando-se modelos de regressão joinpoint. As taxas foram calculadas a partir do Sistema de Informações sobre Nascidos Vivos, excluindo-se recém-nascido com peso < 500g. Foram incluídos apenas dados das capitais, onde o sub-registro é menor e novas tendências podem ser detectadas mais precocemente. A taxa de baixo peso ao nascer aumentou significantemente nas capitais

  9. Assessing browse trend at the landscape level Part 2: Monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keigley, R.B.; Frisina, M.R.; Fager, C.W.

    2002-01-01

    In Part 1, we assessed browse trend across a wide geographic area of Mt. Haggin Wildlife Management Area by conducting surveys of browsing-related architectures. Those data were qualitative. Below we describe the periodic collection of quantitative data from permanently marked locations; we refer to this phase of the trend assessment program as "monitoring." Trend was monitored by three methods: 1 Repeat photography. 2 Comparison of the height of live stems with the height of stems killed by browsing (LD Index). 3 Net annual stem growth rate (NAGRL3). The photography provides an assessment of trend from the comparison of photographs taken at intervals of a few years. The LD Index and NAGRL3 measurements provide an immediate assessment of trend.

  10. Monitoring of non-cigarette tobacco use using Google Trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cavazos-Rehg, Patricia A; Krauss, Melissa J; Spitznagel, Edward L; Lowery, Ashley; Grucza, Richard A; Chaloupka, Frank J; Bierut, Laura Jean

    2015-05-01

    Google Trends is an innovative monitoring system with unique potential to monitor and predict important phenomena that may be occurring at a population level. We sought to validate whether Google Trends can additionally detect regional trends in youth and adult tobacco use. We compared 2011 Google Trends relative search volume data for cigars, cigarillos, little cigars and smokeless tobacco with state prevalence of youth (grades 9-12) and adult (age 18 and older) use of these products using data from the 2011 United States state-level Youth Risk Behaviors Surveillance System and the 2010-2011 United States National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH), respectively. We used the Pearson correlation coefficient to measure the associations. We found significant positive correlations between state Google Trends cigar relative search volume and prevalence of cigar use among youth (r=0.39, R(2) = 0.154, p=0.018) and adults (r=0.49, R(2) = 0.243, pGoogle Trends smokeless tobacco relative search volume and prevalence of smokeless tobacco use among youth and adults were both positive and significant (r=0.46, R(2) = 0.209, p=0.003 and r=0.48, R(2) = 0.226, pGoogle Trends has the potential to be a valuable monitoring tool for tobacco use. The near real-time monitoring features of Google Trends may complement traditional surveillance methods and lead to faster and more convenient monitoring of emerging trends in tobacco use. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  11. Population Aging at Cross-Roads: Diverging Secular Trends in Average Cognitive Functioning and Physical Health in the Older Population of Germany.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steiber, Nadia

    2015-01-01

    This paper uses individual-level data from the German Socio-Economic Panel to model trends in population health in terms of cognition, physical fitness, and mental health between 2006 and 2012. The focus is on the population aged 50-90. We use a repeated population-based cross-sectional design. As outcome measures, we use SF-12 measures of physical and mental health and the Symbol-Digit Test (SDT) that captures cognitive processing speed. In line with previous research we find a highly significant Flynn effect on cognition; i.e., SDT scores are higher among those who were tested more recently (at the same age). This result holds for men and women, all age groups, and across all levels of education. While we observe a secular improvement in terms of cognitive functioning, at the same time, average physical and mental health has declined. The decline in average physical health is shown to be stronger for men than for women and found to be strongest for low-educated, young-old men aged 50-64: the decline over the 6-year interval in average physical health is estimated to amount to about 0.37 SD, whereas average fluid cognition improved by about 0.29 SD. This pattern of results at the population-level (trends in average population health) stands in interesting contrast to the positive association of physical health and cognitive functioning at the individual-level. The findings underscore the multi-dimensionality of health and the aging process.

  12. Population Aging at Cross-Roads: Diverging Secular Trends in Average Cognitive Functioning and Physical Health in the Older Population of Germany.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nadia Steiber

    Full Text Available This paper uses individual-level data from the German Socio-Economic Panel to model trends in population health in terms of cognition, physical fitness, and mental health between 2006 and 2012. The focus is on the population aged 50-90. We use a repeated population-based cross-sectional design. As outcome measures, we use SF-12 measures of physical and mental health and the Symbol-Digit Test (SDT that captures cognitive processing speed. In line with previous research we find a highly significant Flynn effect on cognition; i.e., SDT scores are higher among those who were tested more recently (at the same age. This result holds for men and women, all age groups, and across all levels of education. While we observe a secular improvement in terms of cognitive functioning, at the same time, average physical and mental health has declined. The decline in average physical health is shown to be stronger for men than for women and found to be strongest for low-educated, young-old men aged 50-64: the decline over the 6-year interval in average physical health is estimated to amount to about 0.37 SD, whereas average fluid cognition improved by about 0.29 SD. This pattern of results at the population-level (trends in average population health stands in interesting contrast to the positive association of physical health and cognitive functioning at the individual-level. The findings underscore the multi-dimensionality of health and the aging process.

  13. New trends in structural health monitoring

    CERN Document Server

    Güemes, J

    2013-01-01

    Experts actively working in structural health monitoring and control techniques present the current research, areas of application and tendencies for the future of this technology, including various design issues involved. Examples using some of the latest hardware and software tools, experimental data from small scale laboratory demonstrators and measurements made on real structures illustrate the book. It will be a reference for professionals and students in the areas of engineering, applied natural sciences and engineering management.

  14. Estimating linear temporal trends from aggregated environmental monitoring data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erickson, Richard A.; Gray, Brian R.; Eager, Eric A.

    2017-01-01

    Trend estimates are often used as part of environmental monitoring programs. These trends inform managers (e.g., are desired species increasing or undesired species decreasing?). Data collected from environmental monitoring programs is often aggregated (i.e., averaged), which confounds sampling and process variation. State-space models allow sampling variation and process variations to be separated. We used simulated time-series to compare linear trend estimations from three state-space models, a simple linear regression model, and an auto-regressive model. We also compared the performance of these five models to estimate trends from a long term monitoring program. We specifically estimated trends for two species of fish and four species of aquatic vegetation from the Upper Mississippi River system. We found that the simple linear regression had the best performance of all the given models because it was best able to recover parameters and had consistent numerical convergence. Conversely, the simple linear regression did the worst job estimating populations in a given year. The state-space models did not estimate trends well, but estimated population sizes best when the models converged. We found that a simple linear regression performed better than more complex autoregression and state-space models when used to analyze aggregated environmental monitoring data.

  15. Secular decline in male testosterone and sex hormone binding globulin serum levels in Danish population surveys

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersson, Anna-Maria; Jensen, Tina K; Juul, Anders;

    2007-01-01

    Adverse secular trends in male reproductive health have been reported to be reflected in increased testicular cancer risk and decreased semen quality in more recently born men. These secular trends may also be reflected by changes in Leydig cell function....

  16. Secular Trends in the Clinical Characteristics of Type 2 Diabetic Patients With Severe Hypoglycemia Between 2008 and 2013

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ito, Hiroyuki; Tsugami, Emiko; Ando, Shigenori; Imai, Ayano; Matsumoto, Suzuko; Omoto, Takashi; Shinozaki, Masahiro; Nishio, Shinya; Abe, Mariko; Antoku, Shinichi; Mifune, Mizuo; Togane, Michiko

    2016-01-01

    Background We investigated the trends in the clinical characteristics and prescriptions of type 2 diabetic patients with severe hypoglycemia because the prescription rate of antidiabetic agents has significantly changed recently. Methods A total of 193 patients with type 2 diabetes with severe hypoglycemia induced by antidiabetic agents between 2008 and 2013 were divided into three groups based on the period of visit: 2008 - 2009, 2010 - 2011 and 2012 - 2013. Results While the proportion of patients with severe hypoglycemia using insulin (from 55% to 74%), biguanides (from 6% to 20%), glinides, and dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors significantly increased, those using sulfonylureas (from 45% to 20%) significantly decreased. Errors of drug use significantly increased as a trigger of hypoglycemia in recent years. The number of antidiabetic agents (from 1.9 ± 0.6 to 2.3 ± 0.7), non-diabetic agents (from 2.3 ± 2.4 to 4.3 ± 3.3), and total drugs prescribed were significantly higher in recent years among patients receiving insulin therapy. Conclusions Polypharmacy especially in patients receiving insulin therapy and errors of drug use have increased in type 2 diabetic patients with severe hypoglycemia in recent years. Intensive education in the usage rule of drugs is considered to be important in order to prevent severe hypoglycemia. PMID:27635175

  17. Secular Trends in Fast-Food Restaurant Use Among Adolescents and Maternal Caregivers From 1999 to 2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hannan, Peter J.; Fulkerson, Jayne A.; Laska, Melissa N.; Eisenberg, Marla E.; Neumark-Sztainer, Dianne

    2014-01-01

    Objectives. We examined trends from 1999 to 2010 in adolescents’ self-reported fast-food restaurant use alongside maternal reports of fast-food consumption and purchasing from restaurants for family meals. Methods. Middle- and high-school student participants from Minneapolis–St Paul, Minnesota, represented diverse ethnic/racial and socioeconomic backgrounds. Adolescents completed classroom-administered surveys and maternal caregivers responded by phone or mail. Results. The overall prevalence of frequent fast-food consumption, defined as 3 or more times per week, decreased from 1999 to 2010 among adolescents (1999: 25%; 2010: 19%; P < .001) and maternal caregivers (1999: 17%; 2010: 11%; P < .001), but sociodemographic disparities were apparent. For example, the prevalence of frequent fast-food consumption remained highest and did not significantly decrease among Black or Native American youths. The overall prevalence of frequent fast-food purchases for family meals did not significantly decrease; large decreases were observed only among Hispanic families (1999: 18%; 2010: 6%; P < .001). Conclusions. In light of previous findings linking frequent fast-food consumption to greater weight gain and poor nutrition, the observed decreases in consumption are encouraging and interventions are needed to address observed disparities. PMID:24625157

  18. Age at voice break in Danish boys: effects of pre-pubertal body mass index and secular trend

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Juul, Anders; Magnusdottir, Steinunn; Scheike, Thomas

    2007-01-01

    in the boys choir and pre-pubertal body mass index (BMI)] by survival analysis techniques based on retrospective analyses of age at voice break in 463 Danish choir boys who were studied over a 10-year period. We found an overall median age at voice break of 14.0 [13.9-14.6] years, and a statistically...... significant downwards trend in age at voice break in the 10-year period (1994-2003) (log-rank test p = 0.0146). There was a statistically significant difference in age at voice break between boys in the different BMI quartiles in pre-puberty (p = 0.00822) with a tendency towards early voice break...... with increasing BMI standard deviation scores. Thus boys in the heaviest quartile at 8 years of age had an increased risk of early voice break (RR of 1.74 [1.14-2.65]) approximately 6 years later, compared with boys in the thinnest quartile. The earlier voice break seen during the 10-year observation period could...

  19. Trends in Nuclear Explosion Monitoring Research & Development - A Physics Perspective

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maceira, Monica [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Blom, Philip Stephen [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Maccarthy, Jonathan K. [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Marcillo, Omar Eduardo [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Euler, Garrett Gene [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Begnaud, Michael Lee [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Ford, Sean R. [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory; Pasyanos, Michael E. [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory; Orris, Gregory J. [Naval Research Laboratory; Foxe, Michael P. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory; Arrowsmith, Stephen J. [Sandia National Laboratory; Merchant, B. John [Sandia National Laboratory; Slinkard, Megan E. [Sandia National Laboratory

    2017-06-01

    This document entitled “Trends in Nuclear Explosion Monitoring Research and Development – A Physics Perspective” reviews the accessible literature, as it relates to nuclear explosion monitoring and the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT, 1996), for four research areas: source physics (understanding signal generation), signal propagation (accounting for changes through physical media), sensors (recording the signals), and signal analysis (processing the signal). Over 40 trends are addressed, such as moving from 1D to 3D earth models, from pick-based seismic event processing to full waveform processing, and from separate treatment of mechanical waves in different media to combined analyses. Highlighted in the document for each trend are the value and benefit to the monitoring mission, key papers that advanced the science, and promising research and development for the future.

  20. Real-time trend monitoring of gas compressor stations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Van Hardeveld, T. (Nova, an Alberta Corp., AB (Canada))

    1991-02-01

    The authors' company has developed a machinery health monitoring system (MHealth) for short-term and long-term historical trending and analysis of data from its 40 gas compressor stations. The author discusses the benefits of real-time trending in troubleshooting operations, in preventative maintenance scheduling and cites specific applications in the startup operations of several new gas compressor/centrifugal compressor units.

  1. Secular Trends in Utilization of Critical Care Services Among Candidemia-Associated Hospitalizations: A Population-Based Cohort Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oud, Lavi

    2016-01-01

    half of the last decade. Substantial heterogeneity was noted in the rate of rise in the incidence of C-ICU across examined age groups. Further study in other populations is required to corroborate our findings and examine the sources of the observed trends.

  2. Forest health monitoring: national status, trends, and analysis 2016

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kevin M. Potter; Barbara L. Conkling

    2017-01-01

    The annual national report of the Forest Health Monitoring (FHM) Program of the Forest Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, presents forest health status and trends from a national or multi-State regional perspective using a variety of sources, introducesnew techniques for analyzing forest health data, and summarizes results of recently completed...

  3. Secular trend: morphology and performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sedeaud, Adrien; Marc, Andy; Schipman, Julien; Schaal, Karine; Danial, Mario; Guillaume, Marion; Berthelot, Geoffroy; Toussaint, Jean-François

    2014-01-01

    In a context of morphological expansion of the general population, how do athletes follow such a pattern of anthropometric growth? Is there any relation to performance? Biometric data including mass, height, body mass index (BMI) and age were collected for 50,376 American athletes representing 249,336 annual performers playing in professional baseball, football, ice hockey and basketball. Distributions by mass in National Football League (NFL) players are described by periods. Field goals have been studied in relation to players' height in the National Basketball Association (NBA). Between 1871 and 2011, athletes from the four sports have increased significantly in mass, height and BMI, following a multi-exponential function series. Consequently, biometric differences between athletes and the general population are increasing gradually. Changes in the mass distribution within the NFL show the emergence of a biometrical specificity in relation to the field position. At the professional level, performance remains structured around precise biometric values. In the NBA, a height-attractor at 201.3 ± 6.3 cm for the best scorers is invariant, regardless of the level of play. These results suggest that laws of growth and biometrics drive high-level sport and organise performance around the specific constraint of each field position. Discrepancies between some mass and height developments question the (disproportionate) large mass increase (relative to the height increase) during the 1980s and 1990s.

  4. Monitoring trends in violence: a delayed response to Estrada (2006).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gulliver, Pauline; Langley, John; Cryer, Colin

    2013-11-01

    Reliable and valid indicators of assault are required to effectively monitor population trends and ensure that resources are targeted effectively. Trends in assault, reported by the media, based on crime statistics, or on victim surveys, are substantively affected by extraneous factors. In 2006, Estrada offered up solutions to the difficulties posed by crime statistics and victim surveys, by proposing the development of indicators based on hospital discharge data, albeit with identified limitations. This article is a response to Estrada's proposition, and works through each of Estrada's identified limitations of hospital discharge data. Potential problems with Estrada's suggestions are highlighted in our article and solutions, based on the current evidence, are proposed.

  5. Secular trends of reduced visual acuity from 1985 to 2010 and disease burden projection for 2020 and 2030 among primary and secondary school students in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Hong-Peng; Li, Ang; Xu, Yong; Pan, Chen-Wei

    2015-03-01

    Understanding the burden and trends of reduced visual acuity (VA), a proxy measure for myopia, is essential to guide future health care and clinical management in China. To describe the secular trends from 1985 to 2010, correlate the prevalence of reduced VA among children and adolescents with population density, and project the burden of reduced VA in China in 2020 and 2030. The National Survey on the Constitution and Health of Chinese Students conducted from 1985 to 2010, including 6 repeated surveys with a 3-stage clustering sampling strategy. Mainland China. Primary and secondary school students 7 to 18 years of age were randomly selected from 30 of 31 mainland provinces, excluding Tibet. Unaided distance VA was measured using a retroilluminated logMAR chart with tumbling-E optotypes. World Population Prospects data (the 2012 revision from the Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations) were used to project the number of people affected by reduced VA in 2020 and 2030. This analysis included 725 423, 142 655, 206 601, 219 663, 234 377, and 215 308 students in 1985, 1991, 1995, 2000, 2005, and 2010, respectively. The overall prevalence of reduced VA was 28.6% (95% CI, 28.4%-28.7%) in 1985, 38.6% (95% CI, 38.3%-38.8%) in 1991, 41.0% (95% CI, 40.8%-41.2%) in 1995, 38.5% (95% CI, 38.3%-38.7%) in 2000, 49.5% (95% CI, 49.3%-49.7%) in 2005, and 56.8% (95% CI, 56.6%-57.0%) in 2010. Girls were more susceptible than boys to having reduced VA (odds ratio, 1.38 [95% CI, 1.35-1.40]), and reduced VA was more prevalent in urban areas than in rural areas (odds ratio, 1.84 [95% CI, 1.81-1.87]). Reduced VA was not significantly associated with population density (P = .11). The projected numbers of cases with reduced VA are about 152.4 million (95% CI, 151.9-152.9 million) in 2020, increasing to 180.4 million (95% CI, 179.8-181.2 million) in 2030 among students who are 7 to 18 years of age in mainland China. There was

  6. 85 SECULARISM, SECULAR STATE AND RELIGIOUS FREEDOM ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    finds that, although more feasible within secular states, religious freedom and human ..... principle of natural morality independent of all revelation and supernatural .... In the Commonwealth Realms, the Head of State is required to take the.

  7. [Epidemic status and secular trends of malnutrition among children and adolescents aged 7-18 years from 2005 to 2014 in China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Y H; Wang, Z H; Yang, Z G; Wang, X J; Chen, Y J; Zou, Z Y; Ma, J

    2017-06-18

    To understand and analyze the current situation and secular trends for prevalence of malnutrition among Chinese children and adolescents aged 7-18 years from 2005 to 2014, and to provide important scientific basis for students' nutrition improvement. All the subjects aged 7-18 years in both sexes were sampled from 2005, 2010 and 2014 Chinese National Surveys on Students Constitution and Health. According to the new students' health standard of "Screening Standard for Malnutrition of school-age children and adolescents"(WS/T456-2014) in 2014 of China, the nutritional status of children in 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities, excluding Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan province) were analyzed and compared in different ages, genders, regions and provinces from 2005 to 2014. The Tibetan students was used with the data of Tibetan minority and all the other students from 30 provinces (autonomous regions, municipalities) were Han minority. The prevalence of malnutrition of children and adolescents of Han minority aged 7-18 years in 2014 was 10.0%. The prevalence of malnutrition components, including stunting, mild wasting and moderate severe wasting, were 0.8%, 3.7%, and 5.5%. Compared with 2005 and 2010, the prevalence of malnutrition of Han children and adolescents in 2014 had declined with 5.0 and 2.6 percentage points, respectively, and its components had declined with 1.0, 1.8, 2.2 and 0.4, 1.1, 1.2 percentage points, respectively. The prevalence of malnutrition of 2014 in boys was higher than in girls (11.1% vs.8.9%), the rural was higher than the urban (11.0% vs.9.1%) and the west (11.7%) was higher than the east (9.0%) and the middle (9.2%). Mild wasting of Chinese children and adolescents aged 7-18 years was the main component in malnutrition and the stunting in the Han and Tibetan children and adolescents only accounted for 8.0% and 7.5%, respectively. Compared with 2005 and 2010, the prevalence of malnutrition for Chinese children and adolescents aged

  8. Secular Religious Establishment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lægaard, Sune

    2013-01-01

    Secularism as a political doctrine claims that religion and politics should be separated. The compatibility question is whether secularism can accept some forms of religious establishment in the form of institutional linkages between state and organised religion. I argue that the answer...... to the compatibility question is not obvious and requires a systematic analysis of secularism. Based on a distinction between a general concept and specific conceptions of secularism I offer a general structure for conceptions of secularism that incorporates both a) basic values, e.g. political equality and freedom...... of conscience, b) intermediate political principles of separation, e.g. rights to religious liberty, and c) derived normative prescriptions, e.g. that an established church is unacceptable. I illustrate the structure using the conceptions of secularism advocated by Robert Audi and by Charles Taylor and Jocelyn...

  9. FBG-Based Monitoring of Geohazards: Current Status and Trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Hong-Hu; Shi, Bin; Zhang, Cheng-Cheng

    2017-02-24

    In recent years, natural and anthropogenic geohazards have occured frequently all over the world, and field monitoring is becoming an increasingly important task to mitigate these risks. However, conventional geotechnical instrumentations for monitoring geohazards have a number of weaknesses, such as low accuracy, poor durability, and high sensitivity to environmental interferences. In this aspect, fiber Bragg grating (FBG), as a popular fiber optic sensing technology, has gained an explosive amount of attention. Based on this technology, quasi-distributed sensing systems have been established to perform real-time monitoring and early warning of landslides, debris flows, land subsidence, earth fissures and so on. In this paper, the recent research and development activities of applying FBG systems to monitor different types of geohazards, especially those triggered by human activities, are critically reviewed. The working principles of newly developed FBG sensors are briefly introduced, and their features are summarized. This is followed by a discussion of recent case studies and lessons learned, and some critical problems associated with field implementation of FBG-based monitoring systems. Finally the challenges and future trends in this research area are presented.

  10. FBG-Based Monitoring of Geohazards: Current Status and Trends

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hong-Hu Zhu

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, natural and anthropogenic geohazards have occured frequently all over the world, and field monitoring is becoming an increasingly important task to mitigate these risks. However, conventional geotechnical instrumentations for monitoring geohazards have a number of weaknesses, such as low accuracy, poor durability, and high sensitivity to environmental interferences. In this aspect, fiber Bragg grating (FBG, as a popular fiber optic sensing technology, has gained an explosive amount of attention. Based on this technology, quasi-distributed sensing systems have been established to perform real-time monitoring and early warning of landslides, debris flows, land subsidence, earth fissures and so on. In this paper, the recent research and development activities of applying FBG systems to monitor different types of geohazards, especially those triggered by human activities, are critically reviewed. The working principles of newly developed FBG sensors are briefly introduced, and their features are summarized. This is followed by a discussion of recent case studies and lessons learned, and some critical problems associated with field implementation of FBG-based monitoring systems. Finally the challenges and future trends in this research area are presented.

  11. A Google Trends-based approach for monitoring NSSI

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bragazzi NL

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Nicola Luigi Bragazzi DINOGMI, Department of Neuroscience, Rehabilitation, Ophthalmology, Genetics, Maternal and Child Health, Section of Psychiatry, University of Genoa, Genoa, Italy Abstract: Non-suicidal self-injury (NSSI is an intentional, direct, and socially unacceptable behavior resulting in the destruction of one's own body tissues with no intention of dying or committing suicide, even though it is associated with a higher risk of attempted, planned, or just considered suicide. In this preliminary report, we introduce the concept of “NSSI 2.0”; that is to say, the study of the Internet usage by subjects with NSSI, and we introduce a Google Trends-based approach for monitoring NSSI, called NSSI infodemiology and infoveillance. Despite some limitations, Google Trends has already proven to be reliable for infectious diseases monitoring, and here we extend its application and potentiality in the field of suicidology. Ad hoc web portals and surveys could be designed in light of the reported results for helping people with NSSI. Keywords: infodemiology, infoveillance, Internet, non-suicidal self-injury

  12. Re-Imagining a Christian University in a Secular Age

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warner, Rob

    2013-01-01

    The contours of a secular age, as delineated by classical and contemporary sociologists of religion, have tended to result in secularising trajectories for church-founded institutions of Higher Education, some of which have migrated towards secular normativity. This article explores these trends and then proposes five characteristics of an…

  13. Secular Religious Establishment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lægaard, Sune

    2013-01-01

    Secularism as a political doctrine claims that religion and politics should be separated. The compatibility question is whether secularism can accept some forms of religious establishment in the form of institutional linkages between state and organised religion. I argue that the answer to the co...

  14. Multiculturalism and secularism

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lægaard, Sune

    2017-01-01

    on the general understandings of multiculturalism and secularism. The paper therefore distinguishes and examines different general understandings. Both multiculturalism and secularism can be understood as sets of policies, or as forms of minority accommodation or views about the relationship between religion...... and politics defined in relation to liberalism. Both understandings are problematic, so the paper proposes alternative formal understandings of multiculturalism and secularism. Multiculturalism denotes interpretations of what underlying (often liberal) principles imply under new circumstances of diversity....... Secularism denotes what such principles imply for the relationship between politics and religion. Such formal understandings provide theoretical frameworks for specifying different conceptions of multiculturalism and secularism and for determining in precisely which respects conflicts might arise...

  15. Secular trends: 10 and 20-year comparisons of sexual maturation among students. http://dx.doi.org/10.5007/1980-0037.2012v14n6p680

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rodrigo Mateus Farias

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study was to verify the secular trends of sexual matu­ration of students between 11 and 15 years old, during a period of 10 and 20 years. The sample was composed by 1,002 students aged between 11 and 15 years; 536 boys (12.6±1.3 years old and 466 girls (12.5±1.2 years old who took part in the Ilhabela Mixed-Longitudinal Project on Growth, Development, and Physical Fitness. The students’ assessment period occurred in 1990/91 (initial, 2000/01 (10 years later, and 2009/10 (20 years later. Sexual maturation was analyzed according to the self-assessment method and age at menarche (month and year was collected retrospectively. The statistical analysis used was: one-way ANOVA, and Tukey’s post-hoc test. The level of significance was p<0.01. The onset of menarche in the initial analysis was at: 12.5±1.2 years old; in the 2000/01 group: 12.3±1.0 years old (Δ=-1.6%, and in the 2009/10 group: 12.2±1.0 years old (Δ=-2.4%. Although there was a tendency towards reduction in age at menarche along the periods in­vestigated, differences were not significant. There were significant differences only in genitals (G4, and pubic hair (P3 in boys after 10 and 20 years. In the same period, it did not occur any significant difference in maturational stages for girls. In conclusion, there was no secular trend of secondary sexual characteristics in boys (genital and pubic hair and girls (breast and pubic hair and in age at menarche over 10 and 20 years.

  16. Secular Trends in Pupils' Assessments of Physical Education Lessons in Regard to Their Self-Perception of Physical Fitness across the Educational Systems of Czech Republic and Poland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frömel, Karel; Vašícková, Jana; Svozil, Zbynek; Chmelík, František; Skalik, Krzysztof; Groffik, Dorota

    2014-01-01

    Observation of trends in physical education plays an integral role in motor-development diagnostics and in encouraging physical activity and a healthy lifestyle. This study aims to elucidate the current state of and trends in pupils' assessments of physical education lessons (PELs) in different education systems in the context of self-perception…

  17. Secular Trends in Pupils' Assessments of Physical Education Lessons in Regard to Their Self-Perception of Physical Fitness across the Educational Systems of Czech Republic and Poland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frömel, Karel; Vašícková, Jana; Svozil, Zbynek; Chmelík, František; Skalik, Krzysztof; Groffik, Dorota

    2014-01-01

    Observation of trends in physical education plays an integral role in motor-development diagnostics and in encouraging physical activity and a healthy lifestyle. This study aims to elucidate the current state of and trends in pupils' assessments of physical education lessons (PELs) in different education systems in the context of self-perception…

  18. Growing up before growing out: secular trends in height, weight and obesity in 5--6-year-old children born between 1970 and 2006.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Sarah M; Craig, Leone C A; Raja, Amalraj E; McNeill, Geraldine; Turner, Stephen W

    2013-04-01

    This was a whole-population study of height, weight and obesity prevalence in 5-6-year-old children born between 1970 and 2006 in the Grampian region, north east Scotland. Heights and weights collected as part of routine primary school medical entry were obtained from different sources. Obesity was defined as body mass index (BMI)≥98th centile. Anthropometric measurements were made in 194391 children, mean age 5.6 years (SD 0.8). The mean height z scores rose for those born between 1970-2000 respectively and were static thereafter. Obesity prevalence was non-linear over time and initially fell for birth years 1970-1977, rising between 1977 and 1998 before falling for those born between 1998 and 2006. For the whole population, the prevalence of obesity rose from 1.3% for those born in 1976 to 6.9% for those born in 1998 and fell back to 5.7% for children born in 2006. Obesity was initially highest in girls and most affluent communities but became most prevalent among boys and least affluent communities. The secular increase in height at school entry in children born in 1970 and afterwards was followed by an increase in weight leading to an initial reduction in obesity prevalence. Whole-population obesity prevalence for children born in the 2000s is now falling but prevalence remains considerably higher compared with those born in the 1970s. Obesity prevalence continues to rise among less affluent communities.

  19. Secular trends in the performance of children and adolescents (1980-2000): an analysis of 55 studies of the 20m shuttle run test in 11 countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tomkinson, Grant R; Léger, Luc A; Olds, Tim S; Cazorla, Georges

    2003-01-01

    It is widely believed that the performance of children and adolescents on aerobic fitness tests is declining. To test this hypothesis, this meta-analysis compared the results of 55 reports of the performance of children and adolescents aged 6-19 years who have used the 20m shuttle run test (20mSRT). All data were collected in the period 1981-2000. Following corrections for methodological variation, the results of all studies were expressed using the common metric of running speed (km/h) at the last completed stage. Raw data were combined with pseudodata generated from reported means and standard deviations using Monte Carlo simulation. Where data were available on children and adolescents from the same country of the same age and sex, but tested at different times, linear regression was used to calculate rates of change. This was possible for 11 (mainly developed) countries, representing a total of 129,882 children and adolescents in 151 age x sex x country slices. There has been a significant decline in performance in the 11 countries where data were available, and in most age x sex groups, with a sample-weighted mean decline of 0.43% of mean values per year. The decline was most marked in older age groups and the rate of decline was similar for boys and girls. There has been a very rapid secular decline in the 20mSRT performance of children and adolescents over the last 20 years, at least in developed countries. The rate of decline is not related to the change in the country's relative wealth, as quantified by per capita gross domestic product (GDP).

  20. Power analysis and trend detection for water quality monitoring data. An application for the Greater Yellowstone Inventory and Monitoring Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Irvine, Kathryn M.; Manlove, Kezia; Hollimon, Cynthia

    2012-01-01

    An important consideration for long term monitoring programs is determining the required sampling effort to detect trends in specific ecological indicators of interest. To enhance the Greater Yellowstone Inventory and Monitoring Network’s water resources protocol(s) (O’Ney 2006 and O’Ney et al. 2009 [under review]), we developed a set of tools to: (1) determine the statistical power for detecting trends of varying magnitude in a specified water quality parameter over different lengths of sampling (years) and different within-year collection frequencies (monthly or seasonal sampling) at particular locations using historical data, and (2) perform periodic trend analyses for water quality parameters while addressing seasonality and flow weighting. A power analysis for trend detection is a statistical procedure used to estimate the probability of rejecting the hypothesis of no trend when in fact there is a trend, within a specific modeling framework. In this report, we base our power estimates on using the seasonal Kendall test (Helsel and Hirsch 2002) for detecting trend in water quality parameters measured at fixed locations over multiple years. We also present procedures (R-scripts) for conducting a periodic trend analysis using the seasonal Kendall test with and without flow adjustment. This report provides the R-scripts developed for power and trend analysis, tutorials, and the associated tables and graphs. The purpose of this report is to provide practical information for monitoring network staff on how to use these statistical tools for water quality monitoring data sets.

  1. National Acidification Trend Monitoring Network (TMV). Monitoring effort 2007/2008; TrendMeetnet Verzuring. Monsternemingen in 2007/2008

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Masseling, N.J.; De Goffau, A.

    2010-10-15

    In the period December 2007 till March 2008, the quality of the upper one meter of the groundwater has been investigated at 75 locations of the TMV monitoring network. These data serve to assess the effects of acidification of the groundwater under nature areas (forest/heathland) on sandy soils. The European standard for nitrate of 50 mg per litre was exceeded at 5% of the locations investigated. The concentrations of cadmium, chromium, nickel and zinc exceeded the target levels at 63%, 45%, 23% and 87% of the sampled sites, respectively. At a few sites, the intervention level for cadmium, nickel and zinc was exceeded. The TMV was established in 1989. The network monitors periodically, in cycli of two years, 150 locations in the Netherlands. This implies that during one year of measurement the groundwater quality is assessed at 75 locations. The results of the 'first' 75 locations of the 2006/2008 cycle were published in 2009. The current report covers the second half of the 150 sites. An analysis of the measuring results will be done at a later stage. During the 2006/2008 measuring cycle also observation were made of soil texture and other environmental parameters such as type of vegetation, tree height and thickness of the litter. This type of information illustrates the variation in natural conditions at the locations investigated (deciduous forest, coniferous forest, heathland). These environmental parameters will be used to explain differences in groundwater quality at monitoring sites. [Dutch] Vanaf december 2007 tot in maart 2008 is op 75 locaties van het TrendMeetnet Verzuring (TMV) de kwaliteit van het bovenste grondwater onderzocht. Met deze gegevens worden in Nederlandse natuurgebieden op zandgrond (bos/heide) de effecten van verzuring op het grondwater in kaart gebracht. Op 5 procent van de onderzochte locaties is de EU norm voor nitraat (50 milligram per liter) overschreden. De concentratie van cadmium, chroom, nikkel en zink lag op

  2. Evaluation of the national Acidification Trend Monitoring Network (TMV); Evaluatie TrendMeetnet Verzuring

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    De Goffau, A.; Wattel-Koekkoek, E.J.W.; Van der Hoek, K.W.; Boumans, L.J.M.

    2009-07-01

    The national Acidification Trend Monitoring Network (TMV) has proven to be an effective instrument for demonstrating the impacts of government policies on acidification and air pollution on the quality of groundwater in the Netherlands. The network records the effect of atmospheric deposition - the deposition of acidifying and eutrophicating substances from the atmosphere - on the quality of groundwater. Reduced deposition is reflected in improvements in groundwater quality. Based on these groundwater quality measurements, the network has demonstrated that nitrate concentrations in groundwater have dropped significantly over the past 30 years. These are the findings of an evaluation of the TMV that was performed by the National Institute of Public Health and the Environment (RIVM) by order of the Ministry of Public Housing, Spatial Planning and the Environment (VROM). The TMV was established in 1989 and is administered by the RIVM. The network monitors the quality of the top 1 m of groundwater under natural areas (forest and heather land) with sandy soils. The groundwater under these areas is not affected by any other notable acidifying and eutrophicating substances and, in addition, sandy soils have a limited capacity to neutralize the impacts of acidification. For these reasons, the impacts of atmospheric deposition on groundwater quality are most clearly detected under natural terrains with sandy soils. In other monitoring networks, the effects of atmospheric deposition are difficult or impossible to distinguish from other sources of pollution. In agricultural areas, for example, the impacts of fertilizer application on groundwater quality eclipse those of other sources of pollution. The evaluation report recommends utilizing the measurements of the TMV in the Water Framework Directive reports on groundwater quality and, thereby, bringing the monitoring frequency of the TMV in line with the WFD reporting cycle (cycle of 6 years). In this case, the monitoring

  3. Examining secular trends and seasonality in count data using dynamic generalized linear modelling: a new methodological approach illustrated with hospital discharge data on myocardial infarction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lundbye-Christensen, Søren; Dethlefsen, Claus; Gorst-Rasmussen, Anders;

    2009-01-01

    . Records were updated daily. A dynamic model with a seasonal pattern and an approximately linear trend was fitted to the data, and diagnostic plots indicated a good model fit. The analysis conducted with the dynamic model revealed peaks coinciding with above-average influenza A activity. On average...

  4. Population-wide weight loss and regain in relation to diabetes burden and cardiovascular mortality in Cuba 1980-2010: repeated cross sectional surveys and ecological comparison of secular trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franco, Manuel; Bilal, Usama; Orduñez, Pedro; Benet, Mikhail; Morejón, Alain; Caballero, Benjamín; Kennelly, Joan F; Cooper, Richard S

    2013-04-09

    To evaluate the associations between population-wide loss and gain in weight with diabetes prevalence, incidence, and mortality, as well as cardiovascular and cancer mortality trends, in Cuba over a 30 year interval. Repeated cross sectional surveys and ecological comparison of secular trends. Cuba and the province of Cienfuegos, from 1980 to 2010. Measurements in Cienfuegos included a representative sample of 1657, 1351, 1667, and 1492 adults in 1991, 1995, 2001, and 2010, respectively. National surveys included a representative sample of 14 304, 22 851, and 8031 participants in 1995, 2001, and 2010, respectively. Changes in smoking, daily energy intake, physical activity, and body weight were tracked from 1980 to 2010 using national and regional surveys. Data for diabetes prevalence and incidence were obtained from national population based registries. Mortality trends were modelled using national vital statistics. Rapid declines in diabetes and heart disease accompanied an average population-wide loss of 5.5 kg in weight, driven by an economic crisis in the mid-1990s. A rebound in population weight followed in 1995 (33.5% prevalence of overweight and obesity) and exceeded pre-crisis levels by 2010 (52.9% prevalence). The population-wide increase in weight was immediately followed by a 116% increase in diabetes prevalence and 140% increase in diabetes incidence. Six years into the weight rebound phase, diabetes mortality increased by 49% (from 9.3 deaths per 10 000 people in 2002 to 13.9 deaths per 10 000 people in 2010). A deceleration in the rate of decline in mortality from coronary heart disease was also observed. In relation to the Cuban experience in 1980-2010, there is an association at the population level between weight reduction and death from diabetes and cardiovascular disease; the opposite effect on the diabetes and cardiovascular burden was seen on population-wide weight gain.

  5. Trends in anuran occupancy from northeastern states of the North American Monitoring Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weir, Linda; Fiske, Ian J.; Royle, J. Andrew

    2009-01-01

    We present the first multi-year occupancy trends from North American Amphibian Monitoring Program (NAAMP) data in 10 northeastern states using seven years of data (2001-2007). NAAMP uses a calling survey technique where observers listen for anuran vocalizations along assigned random roadside routes. We were able to assess occupancy trends in 10 northeastern states for 16 species and one species complex, for 94 species/state combinations. We found no significant trends for 64 species/state combinations. For the remaining 30 species/state combinations with significant trends, these split between declining and increasing trends. On a species-by-species basis, two species had declining trends, with significant trends in six states for Pseudacris crucifer and four states for Bufo americanus. The trends of Rana catesbeiana significantly increased in four states, but had no trend in the remaining states.

  6. Tendência secular da desnutrição e da obesidade na infância na cidade de São Paulo (1974-1996 Secular trends in malnutrition and obesity among children in S. Paulo city, Brazil (1974-1996

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos Augusto Monteiro

    2000-12-01

    household surveys undertaken in the city of S. Paulo, Brazil, from mid-80s to mid-90s allow to characterize and analyse secular trends in malnutrition and obesity among infants and children. METHODS: The three surveys included random population samples aged from zero to 59 months (1,008 children in the period of 1974-75; 1,016 in 1984-85 and 1,280 in 1995-96. The malnourished status was diagnosed when height-for-age and/or weight-for-height indices were below two standard deviation of the mean values expected according to the international growth reference. The obesity status was determined when weight-for-height indices fell two standard deviations above the reference. The study of the social distribution of malnutrition and obesity in each survey took into account tertiles of the per capita family income. For the study of the determinants of secular trends, hierarchical causal models, multivariate regression analyses and calculations analogous to the ones used to assess population attributable risks were applied. RESULTS/CONCLUSIONS: In the period of 22 years covered by the three surveys, child malnutrition was controlled in the city and became relatively rare even among the poorest families. The risk of obesity remained low and restricted to the richest families. Positive changes in distal (family income and maternal schooling and intermediate determinants (sanitation, access to heath services and reproductive past history of child nutritional status substantially explained part of the decline in the prevalence of malnutrition seen in the mid-80s to mid-90s.

  7. Secular trends in the prevalence of overweight and obesity in Sicilian schoolchildren aged 11-13 years during the last decade.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parrino, Cristina; Rossetti, Paola; Baratta, Roberto; La Spina, Nadia; La Delfa, Lavinia; Squatrito, Sebastiano; Vigneri, Riccardo; Frittitta, Lucia

    2012-01-01

    The present study evaluates trends in the prevalence of overweight and obesity in relation to gender and area of residence between two cohorts of students aged 11-13 years in Sicily. The analysis was performed on 1,839 schoolchildren, with 924 and 915 children being studied in 1999-2001 and 2009-2010, respectively. The children who were enrolled during 2009-2010 had significantly higher body mass indexes (BMI), BMI z-scores, and waist circumferences than the children who were studied during 1999-2001 (p<0.0001 for all); these differences was also observed when the cohort was subdivided according to gender or residence area The prevalence of obesity increased significantly from 7.9% in 1999-2001 to 13.7% in 2009-2010 (p<0.0001), whereas thinness decreased significantly from 10.1% to 2.3% (p<0.0001) in the same periods. The increase of trends in the prevalence of obesity was significantly higher in males (9.7% vs. 17.6%, p = 0.0006) than in females (6.3% vs. 9.8%, p = 0.04) and was slightly higher in urban areas (8.8% vs. 14.3%, p = 0.002) than in rural areas (7.8% vs. 13.0%, p = 0.012). The male gender was associated with a higher risk of being overweight or obese (odds ratio: 1.63; 95% confidence intervals: 1.24-2.15; p = 0.0005) in 2009-2010 than in 1999-2001, after adjusting for age and the residence area. In conclusion, this study showed an increasing trend in the prevalence of overweight and obesity in Sicilian schoolchildren during the last decade and that this trend was related to gender, age and the area of residence. More specifically, our data indicated that the prevalence of obesity increased by 5.8%, the prevalence of thinness decreased by 7.8% and the prevalence of normal-weight children did not change over the course of a decade. These results suggest a shift in the body weights of Sicilian children toward the upper percentiles.

  8. Secular trends in the prevalence of overweight and obesity in Sicilian schoolchildren aged 11-13 years during the last decade.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristina Parrino

    Full Text Available The present study evaluates trends in the prevalence of overweight and obesity in relation to gender and area of residence between two cohorts of students aged 11-13 years in Sicily. The analysis was performed on 1,839 schoolchildren, with 924 and 915 children being studied in 1999-2001 and 2009-2010, respectively. The children who were enrolled during 2009-2010 had significantly higher body mass indexes (BMI, BMI z-scores, and waist circumferences than the children who were studied during 1999-2001 (p<0.0001 for all; these differences was also observed when the cohort was subdivided according to gender or residence area The prevalence of obesity increased significantly from 7.9% in 1999-2001 to 13.7% in 2009-2010 (p<0.0001, whereas thinness decreased significantly from 10.1% to 2.3% (p<0.0001 in the same periods. The increase of trends in the prevalence of obesity was significantly higher in males (9.7% vs. 17.6%, p = 0.0006 than in females (6.3% vs. 9.8%, p = 0.04 and was slightly higher in urban areas (8.8% vs. 14.3%, p = 0.002 than in rural areas (7.8% vs. 13.0%, p = 0.012. The male gender was associated with a higher risk of being overweight or obese (odds ratio: 1.63; 95% confidence intervals: 1.24-2.15; p = 0.0005 in 2009-2010 than in 1999-2001, after adjusting for age and the residence area. In conclusion, this study showed an increasing trend in the prevalence of overweight and obesity in Sicilian schoolchildren during the last decade and that this trend was related to gender, age and the area of residence. More specifically, our data indicated that the prevalence of obesity increased by 5.8%, the prevalence of thinness decreased by 7.8% and the prevalence of normal-weight children did not change over the course of a decade. These results suggest a shift in the body weights of Sicilian children toward the upper percentiles.

  9. Secular trends in infant mortality by age-group and avoidable components in the State of São Paulo, 1996–2012

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kelsy Catherina Nema Areco

    Full Text Available Abstract Objective: To describe trends and composition of infant mortality rate in the State of São Paulo, from 1996 to 2012. Methods: An ecological study was conducted, based on official secondary data of births and infant deaths of residents in São Paulo, from 1996 to 2012. The infant mortality rate was calculated by the direct method and was analyzed by graphs and polynomial regression models for age groups (early neonatal, late neonatal and post-neonatal and for groups of avoidable causes of death. Results: The mortality rate in the State of São Paulo tended to fall, ranging from 22.5 to 11.5 per thousand live births. Half of the infant deaths occurred in the early neonatal group. The proportion of avoidable infant deaths varied from 76.0 to 68.7%. The deaths which were avoidable by adequate attention to women during pregnancy and childbirth and newborn care accounted for 54% of infant deaths throughout the period. Conclusions: The mortality rate levels are still far from those in developed countries, which highlight the need to prioritize access and quality of healthcare services during pregnancy, childbirth and newborn care, especially in the first week of life, aiming at achieving standards of infant mortality similar to those of developed societies.

  10. Secular trends for age at spermarche among Chinese boys from 11 ethnic minorities, 1995–2010: a multiple cross-sectional study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Yi; Ma, Jun; Li, Liu-Bai; Dong, Bin; Wang, Zhiqiang; Agardh, Anette

    2016-01-01

    Objectives We compared the differences in median age at spermarche among 11 ethnic minorities in 2010, estimated the trends regarding age at spermarche in different ethnic minorities from 1995 to 2010, and explored the association of spermarche with body mass index (BMI). Methods We used four cross-sectional Chinese National Surveys on Students’ Constitution and Health (CNSSCH, 1995, 2000, 2005 and 2010), and the total sample size was 40 113 children aged 11–18 years. The median age at spermarche of each ethnic minority was determined by using probit analysis. Logistic regression was used to assess the association of spermarche with BMI. Results In 2010, the ethnic minorities with earliest age at spermarche were Qiang (12.03 years), Zhuang (12.91 years) and Kirghiz (13.17 years); the three ethnic minorities with latest age at spermarche were Dong (14.73 years), Yao (14.60 years), and Naxi (14.36 years). From 1995 to 2010, age at spermarche showed a decline in almost each minority group except Yao and Dong. A higher BMI was associated with an increased likelihood of having reached spermarche after adjusting for age, regions or ethnic minorities. Conclusions A large variation in age at spermarche was observed among different ethnic minorities. The age at spermarche showed a downward shift in almost each of the 11 ethnic minorities with different patterns over time, and the children with higher BMI are more likely to enter puberty early. PMID:26911588

  11. Biological monitoring and selected trends in environmental quality. [Use of National Inventory of Selected Biological Monitoring Programs at ORNL to identify documented environmental trends

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Suffern, J.S.; West, D.C.; Kemp, H.T.; Burgess, R.L.

    1976-10-01

    Under a contract with the President's Council on Environmental Quality, the National Inventory of Selected Biological Monitoring Programs at ORNL was used to identify documented environmental trends. Fish population trends were described for the Great Lakes and the Colorado River system. Trends in amphibian populations in the northeast were examined and correlated with acid precipitation. Increases in breeding success among large birds of prey were correlated with reductions in ambient levels of DDT and its residues. Geographic variation in PCB contamination was examined along with differences between aquatic and terrestrial contamination levels. Changes in air quality were documented, and their effects on plant viability were outlined. Trends in the biological effects of environmental deposition of lead were documented. Long-term changes in forest structure in the southeast were presented, and a general reduction in wildlife habitat, associated with land use practices, was documented for several areas in the US.

  12. Secular Trends in Prescription Patterns of Single-Pill Combinations of an Angiotensin-Converting Enzyme Inhibitor or Angiotensin Receptor Blocker Plus a Thiazide Diuretic for Hypertensive Patients in Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsu, Chih-Neng; Wang, Tzung-Dau

    2013-01-01

    Background Poor adherence to recommended drug regimens is one of the fundamental issues behind suboptimal control rates of hypertension worldwide. Single-pill combinations (SPCs) improve patient adherence, decrease cost, and are increasingly prescribed in the Western societies. We conducted this study to elucidate the prescription patterns and the secular trends of SPCs in Taiwan. Methods We retrospectively reviewed the reimbursement database of Taiwan’s National Health Insurance from 2002 to 2007. Among the one million-person random samples, information from those coded with ICD-9 401-405 and antihypertensive prescriptions was obtained. Results From 2002 to 2007, there had been amore than 7.5-fold increase in annual prescription frequency of SPCs of an angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor (ACEI) or angiotensin receptor blocker (ARB) plus a thiazide diuretic (from 1.1% to 8.5%, p ACEIs or ARBs and diuretics, the relative proportion of SPC use, in contrast to free combinations, increased markedly (from 10.8% to 54.2%, p = 0.005). Incorporating patient antihypertensive treatment prior to SPCs prescription,we categorized the SPC prescription patterns into 3 groups: naïve, switch, and add-on. The increase in patients taking SPCs came mostly from the naïve SPC prescription group (from 2.3% in 2002 to 28.8% in 2007 among all patients treated with ACEIs or ARBs and thiazide diuretics, p = 0.003). Compared to both naïve and add-on SPC users, patients in the switch group had a greater pill burden and more comorbidities, whichmight drive physicians to switch from free combinations to SPCs. Conclusions Single-pill combinations are well-accepted and increasingly prescribed in Taiwan, particularly in drug-naïve hypertensive patients. This finding might indicate an aggressive attitude towards early hypertension control among physicians in Taiwan. PMID:27122684

  13. Nitrogen and phosphorus trend analysis in Latvia agricultural monitoring stations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dimanta, Z.; Vircavs, V.; Veinbergs, A.; Lauva, D.; Ambramenko, K.; Gailuma, A.; VÄ«tola, I.

    2012-04-01

    Water quality depends on human activity. Intensive agriculture is one of the main sources, that cause water quality pollution and eutrophication. The use of fertilizers not only improves soil fertility, crop yield and quality, but also causes water pollution. Human activities, including the use of fertilizer, promote nutrient (nitrogen and phosphorus) concentrations in water. Compared to the 90th agricultural production in Latvia has progressed. Vulnerable zones have been specified in the country. It is situated in the region of Zemgale's south site, within the border Lithuania. There are defined requirements for water and soil protection from agricultural activity that cause nitrate pollution. The EU Nitrates Directive aim is to protect water from nitrate pollution. In Latvia defined nitrate values are: 50 mg/l NO3 or 11.2 mg/l N/NO3 and Ptot - 0.2 mg/l. As agriculture has became intensive and the use of fertilizers has grown, results indicate that the leaching potential and values of N and P has increased. Nutrients leaching in agricultural areas have observed all year in vulnerable zones, but it's values changes depending on season. The highest nutrient concentrations observe in winter and spring periods, particularly in snow and ice melting periods. The lowest values are in summer. Nutrient leaching potencial depends on precipitation, plant vegetation, season, fertilization type and soil cultivation process. N and P leaching can decrease, taking consideration the use time of fertilizers and good agricultural practices. Research objects are monitoring stations Bērze and Mellupīte with tree research scales: drainage fields, small catchments and observation wells. The research analyses N and P concentrations in groundwater (2006-2010) and drain field and small catchment runoff (1995-2010). The aim of the research is to analyze nitrate and phosphorus concentration fluctuations in a time period. To determine nutrient concentrations, water samples were collected

  14. Varieties of Secularism in Asia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Varieties of Secularism is an ethnographically rich, theoretically well-informed, and intellectually coherent volume which builds off the work of Talal Asad, Charles Taylor, and others who have engaged the issue of secularism(s) and in socio-political life. The volume seeks to examine theories...... of secularism/secularity and examine concrete ethnographic cases in order to further the theoretical discussion. Whereas Taylor’s magisterial work draws up the conditions and problems of a belief in God in Western modernity, it leaves unexplored the challenges posed by the spiritual in modernity outside...... of the North Atlantic rim. This anthology seeks to begin that task. It does so by suggesting that the kind of secularity described by Taylor is only one amongst others. By attending to the shifting relationship between proper religion and ‘bad faiths’; between politically valorised and embarrassing spiritual...

  15. Secular trends in age at menarche and time to establish regular menstrual cycling in Japanese women born between 1930 and 1985

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hosokawa Michie

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Early life-stage exposure to estrogen increases the risk of breast cancer. The objective of this study was to investigate the age at menarche and time to onset of regular menstrual cycles for Japanese women born between 1930 and 1985. Methods A cross-sectional study was designed using data from the baseline survey of the Japan Nurses’ Health Study. The data from 48,104 female nurses were analyzed. To view trends in age at menarche, the distribution of age at menarche was calculated for each birth year cohort. The distribution of time to onset of regular menstrual cycles was calculated for each birth year cohort. To estimate whether high-risk group of the estrogenic dependent disorders increase with succeeding generations, we defined the women who experienced menarche at ten years old or younger and started a regular cycle within one year as early age onset of ovulatory cycles. Results Average ages at menarche were as follows: 13.8 years for those born in the 1930s (n = 113, 13.3 years for the 1940s (n = 4,751, 12.8 years for the 1950s (n = 15,844, 12.3 years for the 1960s (n = 20,547, 12.2 years for the 1970s (n = 6,568, and 12.2 years for the 1980s (n = 281. The proportion of women who experienced the onset of regular menstrual cycles 1 year after menarche was 29.3% for those born in the 1930s, but decreased to 11.9% for the 1980s. On the other hand, the proportion of women who did not have regular menstrual cycles was 10.4% for those born in the 1930s, but rose to 19.8% in 1980s. The proportion of women who experienced menarche at 10 years old and started regular menstrual cycles within one year increased over time: the percentage was 0.0%, 0.4%, 0.6%, 1.1%, 1.3%, and 2.1% for the women born in 1930s, 1940s, 1950s, 1960s, 1970s, and 1980s, respectively. Conclusions The age at menarche of Japanese women born between 1930 and 1985 decreased, but the onset of regular menstrual cycling

  16. Workforce Diversity: Monitoring Employment Trends in Public Organizations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guajardo, Salomon A.

    1999-01-01

    Presents the use of research designs that can be used by human resource specialists to evaluate and monitor work force diversity and minority employment. Compares results of Repeated Measure Analyses of Variance with One Within-subjects Factor design with Repeated Measure Analyses of Variance with One Within-subjects Factor by job category. (JOW)

  17. Varieties of Secularism in Asia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Varieties of Secularism is an ethnographically rich, theoretically well-informed, and intellectually coherent volume which builds off the work of Talal Asad, Charles Taylor, and others who have engaged the issue of secularism(s) and in socio-political life. The volume seeks to examine theories of...... phenomena; between the new visibilities and silences of magic, ancestors, and religion in democratic politics, this book seeks to outline the particular formations of secularism that have become possible in Asia from China to Indonesia and from Bahrain to Timor-Leste....

  18. Trends in monitoring patients with aneurysmal subarachnoid haemorrhage

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Springborg, J B; Frederiksen, H-J; Eskesen, V

    2005-01-01

    After aneurysmal subarachnoid haemorrhage (SAH), the clinical outcome depends upon the primary haemorrhage and a number of secondary insults in the acute post-haemorrhagic period. Some secondary insults are potentially preventable but prevention requires prompt recognition of cerebral or systemic...... with the conventional monitoring systems, for example intracranial pressure measurements, transcranial Doppler ultrasound and modern neuro-imaging, direct assessment of biochemical markers by intracerebral microdialysis is promising in the advancement of neurointensive care of patients with SAH. A successfully...

  19. Intraoperative auditory monitoring in vestibular schwannoma surgery: new trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmerber, Sébastien; Lavieille, Jean-Pierre; Dumas, Georges; Herve, Thierry

    2004-01-01

    To investigate the efficiency of a new method of brainstem auditory-evoked potential (BAEP) monitoring during complete vestibular schwannoma (VS) resection with attempted hearing preservation. Dedicated software providing near real-time recording was developed using a rejection strategy of artifacts based on spectral analysis. A small sample number (maximum 200) is required and results are obtained within 10 s. Fourteen consecutive patients with hearing class A operated on for VS, in an attempt to preserve hearing, participated in the investigation. Postoperatively, 7 patients (50%) had useful hearing (hearing class A, 4/14; hearing class B, 3/14) on the operated side. Seven patients (50%) were reduced to hearing class D. Drilling of the internal auditory canal (IAC) and tumor removal at the lateral end of the IAC were identified as the two most critical steps for achieving hearing preservation. Intraoperative BAEP monitoring was sensitive in detecting auditory damage with useful feedback but its effectiveness in preventing irreversible hearing impairment was not demonstrated in this study. Combined BAEP and direct auditory nerve monitoring using the same equipment will be performed in the future in an attempt to enhance the chances of preventing irreversible hearing damage, and possibly to improve the hearing outcome significantly.

  20. Northern region landbird monitoring program: a program designed to monitor more than long-term population trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richard L. Hutto

    2005-01-01

    The Northern Region Landbird Monitoring Program (NRLMP) has been in place for nearly a decade and is designed to allow us to track population trends of numerous landbird species, while at the same time allowing us to investigate the effects of various kinds of land use activity on the occurrence, abundance, or demographics of numerous landbird species. We conduct...

  1. Technical specifications for monitoring Community trends in zoonotic agents in foodstuffs and animal populations on request from EFSA

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Borck Høg, Birgitte; Chriél, Mariann; Korsgaard, Helle

    Technical specifications are proposed for the monitoring of temporal trends in zoonotic agents in animal and food populations at Community or Member State group level in the framework of Directive 2003/99/EC. Two types of trend monitoring are identified: trend watching, which covers general obser...

  2. Tendência secular da doença respiratória na infância na cidade de São Paulo (1984-1996 Secular trends in child respiratory diseases in S. Paulo City, Brazil (1984-1996

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Helena D'Aquino Benicio

    2000-12-01

    caso da doença alta e da doença baixa sem chiado, o aumento é generalizado nos vários estratos sociais, o que não altera, no período, a situação discretamente menos favorável dos estratos de menor renda. No caso da doença baixa com chiado, o aumento se restringe aos estratos de renda baixa e intermediária, sendo particularmente intenso no estrato de menor renda, o que determina o surgimento de uma forte relação inversa entre a doença e a renda familiar. Mudanças positivas em determinantes distais das doenças respiratórias (renda familiar e escolaridade materna e em variáveis relacionadas à salubridade das moradias justificariam declínio modesto e não aumento das doenças respiratórias na cidade. O aumento na freqüência a creches, observado no período, poderia contrabalançar o efeito positivo das melhorias em variáveis socioeconômicas e ambientais, mas não seria suficiente para justificar o aumento das doenças respiratórias na cidade.OBJECTIVE: Data from two consecutive household surveys undertaken in mid-80s and mid-90s allow to characterize and analyse secular trends in infant and child respiratory diseases in the city of S. Paulo, Brazil. METHODS: The two surveys included random population samples aged from zero to 59 months (1,016 in the period of 1984-85 and 1,280 in 1995-96. In both surveys the instant prevalence of high respiratory diseases (above the epiglottis and low respiratory diseases with or without wheezing were calculated. All sampled children were examined in their household at a random day by trained pediatricians using standardized procedures. The examinations included medical history, past respiratory diseases and a complete physical examination. In both surveys the examinations were distributed throughout a period of almost 12 months to assure a uniform coverage of the various areas of the city along the four seasons of the year. For each survey, the study of the social distribution of the diseases took into account

  3. Recent trends in nanomaterials applications in environmental monitoring and remediation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Das, Sumistha; Sen, Biswarup; Debnath, Nitai

    2015-12-01

    Environmental pollution is one of the greatest problems that the world is facing today, and it is increasing with every passing year and causing grave and irreparable damage to the earth. Nanomaterials, because of their novel physical and chemical characteristics, have great promise to combat environment pollution. Nanotechnology is being used to devise pollution sensor. A variety of materials in their nano form like iron, titanium dioxide, silica, zinc oxide, carbon nanotube, dendrimers, polymers, etc. are increasingly being used to make the air clean, to purify water, and to decontaminate soil. Nanotechnology is also being used to make renewable energy cheaper and more efficient. The use of nanotechnology in agriculture sector will reduce the indiscriminate use of agrochemicals and thus will reduce the load of chemical pollutant. While remediating environment pollution with nanomaterials, it should also be monitored that these materials do not contribute further degradation of the environment. This review will focus broadly on the applications of nanotechnology in the sustainable development with particular emphasis on renewable energy, air-, water-, and soil-remediation. Besides, the review highlights the recent developments in various types of nanomaterials and nanodevices oriented toward pollution monitoring and remediation.

  4. Moderate Secularism and Multicultural Equality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lægaard, Sune

    2008-01-01

    provides a response to a prominent argument against multicultural accommodation of religious minorities, what is really at stake in discussions of multiculturalism and secularism are political principles. Modood's case for accommodation of Muslims along the lines of moderate secularism presupposes...... a normative conception of equality, but his characterisation of multicultural equality is inadequate in several respects...

  5. Recent secular trends in pubertal timing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Kaspar; Mouritsen, Annette; Aksglaede, Lise

    2012-01-01

    The decline in age at puberty in the general population has been paralleled by an increase in the number of girls referred for evaluation of precocious puberty (PP). In 1999, The Lawson Wilkins Pediatric Endocrine Society recommended a lowering of the age limit for evaluation of PP in girls. Howe...

  6. Secular trends in newborn sex ratios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grech, Victor

    2014-11-01

    A wide variety of factors have been shown to influence the male to female ratio at birth, which invariably displays a male excess. This paper will review and amplify recent work by the author, with specific references to individual countries, regions and entire continents in order to provide a global overview of this subject. It will be shown that stress, including stress related to political events, influences this ratio. Man-made radiation is also shown to have played a significant role in relation to the Windscale fire (1957) and Chernobyl (1986). Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Recent trends in the condition monitoring of transformers theory, implementation and analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Chakravorti, Sivaji; Chatterjee, Biswendu

    2013-01-01

    Recent Trends in the Condition Monitoring of Transformers reflects the current interest in replacing traditional techniques used in power transformer condition monitoring with non-invasive measures such as polarization/depolarization current measurement, recovery voltage measurement, frequency domain spectroscopy and frequency response analysis. The book stresses the importance of scrutinizing the condition of transformer insulation which may fail under present day conditions of intensive use with the resulting degradation of dielectric properties causing functional failure of the transformer.

  8. Post-religional perspective and secular Buddhism: Stephen Batchelor and the post-metaphysical religion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leandro Durazzo

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to present one of the contemporary trends on Buddhism, specially from the last decades in West, for its encounter with the globalized and dynamic context of present societies. This Buddhist trend, the progressive secularization of its traditions and practices, not to mention its increasing acceptance of historical-textual refutation, finds in Stephen Batchelor - a former monk in two different Buddhist traditions, Tibetan and Korean Zen - a catalyzer and a well-known advocate of secular perspective to the contemporary Buddhism. Here we will present the potential dialogue between the Secular Buddhism - besides the secularizing perspectives over orthodox cultural traditions - and the post-religional subject, as proposed by Marià Corbí and the Ecumenical Association of Third World Theologians. For the purposes of this paper we will focus on the modernizing and secular hermeneutics on Dharma practice, as defended by Stephen Batchelor and others.

  9. Recent trends in chemical composition of bulk precipitation at Estonian monitoring stations 1994-2001

    Science.gov (United States)

    Treier, K.; Pajuste, K.; Frey, J.

    Monthly and annual means of main anions (SO 42-, NO 3-, Cl -) and summed base cations (Ca 2+, Mg 2+, K +, Na +) in bulk precipitation were studied at 10 stations during an 8-year monitoring period. The data showed statistically significant decreasing trends in most cases. Average declines of mean annual volume-weighted concentrations for both anions and cations were about two-fold. Despite the decrease, the loads of S and cations are still relatively high in Estonia (about 4-14 kg S ha -1 and 0.6-1.2 keq ha -1, respectively) compared with the loads in Finland and Sweden. Estimated linear decline trends followed the same pattern as annually combusted oil shale from Estonian power plants and emissions of SO 2 and fly ash. Recent trends in chemical composition of bulk precipitation at the monitoring stations reflected economic changes in Estonia as well as transboundary fluxes from neighbouring countries.

  10. BLASPHEMY IN A SECULAR STATE:

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    MLR

    altogether the religious basis of secular authority'.2 Accordingly, .... acknowledgement of 'the natural right of the Jewish people to be masters of their fate, ...... outrage to a religious feeling that a believer has towards a religious place, image.

  11. Secular humanism and "scientific psychiatry"

    OpenAIRE

    2006-01-01

    Abstract The Council for Secular Humanism identifies Secular Humanism as a "way of thinking and living" committed to rejecting authoritarian beliefs and embracing "individual freedom and responsibility ... and cooperation." The paradigmatic practices of psychiatry are civil commitment and insanity defense, that is, depriving innocent persons of liberty and excusing guilty persons of their crimes: the consequences of both are confinement in institutions ostensibly devoted to the treatment of m...

  12. Celebrating the Secular

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amanda Lohrey

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available On 4 November 2004 I read a report in the Sydney Morning Herald that I found genuinely shocking, a statement by Cardinal George Pell, of the Catholic diocese of Sydney, on what’s wrong with democracy. This report was of a speech given to the Acton Institute for the Study of Religion and Liberty in the United States. In it, Dr Pell told his audience that liberal democracy is a world of ‘empty secularism’ that is over-focused on ‘individual autonomy’. The problem with democracy, said the Cardinal, quoting John Paul II, is that it is not a good thing in itself; its value depends on the moral vision that it serves, and a secular democracy is lacking in moral vision. If democracy is not a good thing in and of itself, then why have we sent troops to Iraq to enable it? And what about the principle of equality before the law? Freedom of conscience? Freedom of speech and of action? Responsibility for community? Sounds like a moral vision to me.

  13. Evaluation of a regional monitoring program's statistical power to detect temporal trends in forest health indicators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perles, Stephanie J.; Wagner, Tyler; Irwin, Brian J.; Manning, Douglas R.; Callahan, Kristina K.; Marshall, Matthew R.

    2014-01-01

    Forests are socioeconomically and ecologically important ecosystems that are exposed to a variety of natural and anthropogenic stressors. As such, monitoring forest condition and detecting temporal changes therein remain critical to sound public and private forestland management. The National Parks Service’s Vital Signs monitoring program collects information on many forest health indicators, including species richness, cover by exotics, browse pressure, and forest regeneration. We applied a mixed-model approach to partition variability in data for 30 forest health indicators collected from several national parks in the eastern United States. We then used the estimated variance components in a simulation model to evaluate trend detection capabilities for each indicator. We investigated the extent to which the following factors affected ability to detect trends: (a) sample design: using simple panel versus connected panel design, (b) effect size: increasing trend magnitude, (c) sample size: varying the number of plots sampled each year, and (d) stratified sampling: post-stratifying plots into vegetation domains. Statistical power varied among indicators; however, indicators that measured the proportion of a total yielded higher power when compared to indicators that measured absolute or average values. In addition, the total variability for an indicator appeared to influence power to detect temporal trends more than how total variance was partitioned among spatial and temporal sources. Based on these analyses and the monitoring objectives of theVital Signs program, the current sampling design is likely overly intensive for detecting a 5 % trend·year−1 for all indicators and is appropriate for detecting a 1 % trend·year−1 in most indicators.

  14. Evaluation of a regional monitoring program's statistical power to detect temporal trends in forest health indicators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perles, Stephanie J; Wagner, Tyler; Irwin, Brian J; Manning, Douglas R; Callahan, Kristina K; Marshall, Matthew R

    2014-09-01

    Forests are socioeconomically and ecologically important ecosystems that are exposed to a variety of natural and anthropogenic stressors. As such, monitoring forest condition and detecting temporal changes therein remain critical to sound public and private forestland management. The National Parks Service's Vital Signs monitoring program collects information on many forest health indicators, including species richness, cover by exotics, browse pressure, and forest regeneration. We applied a mixed-model approach to partition variability in data for 30 forest health indicators collected from several national parks in the eastern United States. We then used the estimated variance components in a simulation model to evaluate trend detection capabilities for each indicator. We investigated the extent to which the following factors affected ability to detect trends: (a) sample design: using simple panel versus connected panel design, (b) effect size: increasing trend magnitude, (c) sample size: varying the number of plots sampled each year, and (d) stratified sampling: post-stratifying plots into vegetation domains. Statistical power varied among indicators; however, indicators that measured the proportion of a total yielded higher power when compared to indicators that measured absolute or average values. In addition, the total variability for an indicator appeared to influence power to detect temporal trends more than how total variance was partitioned among spatial and temporal sources. Based on these analyses and the monitoring objectives of the Vital Signs program, the current sampling design is likely overly intensive for detecting a 5 % trend·year(-1) for all indicators and is appropriate for detecting a 1 % trend·year(-1) in most indicators.

  15. 大连市高中生1948-2008年生长发育变化趋势分析%Analysis on growth and development secular trend of students at age 17 in Dalian, China: 1948 -2008

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王智勇; 高学谦; 刘启贵; 隋全恒; 姜芝莉; 胡克震; 孙廷亮

    2011-01-01

    Objective To describe, analyze and predict growth and development secular trend (CDST) of students at age 17 in Dalian. Methods With 10 annual data on body height ( BH) , body weight ( BW) and chest circumference (CC) , the GDST of 17-year-old student in Dalian (1948 - 2008) were analyzed. With 10 years time-span generally, annual growth rate (AGR) were calculated, and a curve comprising 6 phases was describes. Then these phases were analyzed, and series of characteristics on the curve were concluded. Results Since 1949, BH: AGR of male was 1.41‰, of female was 0.95‰. BW: AGR of male was 6.79‰, of female was 3. 38‰. CC: AGR of male was 1.47‰, of female was 0.55%?. Since 1979, BH: AGR of male was 1.02‰, of female was0.60‰. BW: AGR of male was 7.95‰, of female was 2.81 ‰. CC: AGR of male was 1. 57‰, of female was 0.45‰. Conclusion The curve of the GDST is fluctuation. The GDST occurred " sexual difference" , the male is more sensitive to the nourishment than the female. BW is the roost sensitive index to the malnutrition or ovemutrition, while BH is the least one. Some counter-measures will make a positive effect on the GDST, such as popularizing nutritional education, preventing obesity and emphasizing physical education.%目的 分析和预测大连市学生生长发育趋势,为采取针对性的干预措施提供依据.方法 根据大连市1948 - 2009年10个时间点的城市高中17岁男、女生的身高、体重、胸围资料,选取10 a(特殊的选5 a)的时间跨度,计算年增长率.对6个分期予以分析与特点归纳.结果 建国60a来,男生身高年增长率为1.41‰,女生为0.95%;男生体重年增长率为6.79‰,女生为3.38%;男生胸围年增长率为1.47%,女生为0.55‰.改革开放30 a来,男生身高年增长率为1.02‰,女生为0.60‰;男生体重年增长率为7.95‰,女生为2.81‰;男生胸围年增长率为1.57‰,女生为0.45‰.结论 生长发育曲线是波动的,生长发育趋势

  16. The Diagnosis and Hemodynamic Monitoring of Circulatory Shock: Current and Future Trends

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hendy Adham

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Circulatory shock is a complex clinical syndrome encompassing a group of conditions that can arise from different etiologies and presented by several different hemodynamic patterns. If not corrected, cell dysfunction, irreversible multiple organ insufficiency, and death may occur. The four basic types of shock, hypovolemic, cardiogenic, obstructive and distributive, have features similar to that of hemodynamic shock. It is therefore essential, when monitoring hemodynamic shock, to making accurate clinical assessments which will guide and dictate appropriate management therapy. The European Society of Intensive Care has recently made recommendations for monitoring hemodynamic shock. The present paper discusses the issues raised in the new statements, including individualization of blood pressure targets, prediction of fluid responsiveness, and the use of echocardiography as the first means during the initial evaluation of circulatory shock. Also, the place of more invasive hemodynamic monitoring techniques and future trends in hemodynamic and metabolic monitoring in circulatory shock, will be debated.

  17. Automated retinal imaging and trend analysis – a tool for health monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roesch, Karin; Swedish, Tristan; Raskar, Ramesh

    2017-01-01

    Most current diagnostic devices are expensive, require trained specialists to operate and gather static images with sparse data points. This leads to preventable diseases going undetected until late stage, resulting in greatly narrowed treatment options. This is especially true for retinal imaging. Future solutions are low cost, portable, self-administered by the patient, and capable of providing multiple data points, population analysis, and trending. This enables preventative interventions through mass accessibility, constant monitoring, and predictive modeling. PMID:28579753

  18. Automated retinal imaging and trend analysis - a tool for health monitoring.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roesch, Karin; Swedish, Tristan; Raskar, Ramesh

    2017-01-01

    Most current diagnostic devices are expensive, require trained specialists to operate and gather static images with sparse data points. This leads to preventable diseases going undetected until late stage, resulting in greatly narrowed treatment options. This is especially true for retinal imaging. Future solutions are low cost, portable, self-administered by the patient, and capable of providing multiple data points, population analysis, and trending. This enables preventative interventions through mass accessibility, constant monitoring, and predictive modeling.

  19. Forest health monitoring: national status, trends, and analysis 2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kevin M. Potter; Barbara L. Conkling

    2016-01-01

    The annual national report of the Forest Health Monitoring (FHM) Program of the Forest Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, presents forest health status and trends from a national or multi- State regional perspective using a variety of sources, introduces new techniques for analyzing forest health data, and summarizes results of recently completed Evaluation...

  20. Towards better service in restaurants by monitoring trends: Display of nutritional values on the menus

    OpenAIRE

    Ivkov Milan

    2015-01-01

    Business obligations, the manner and pace of life today, and a large number of options when it comes to eating out, require that at least one meal is consumed outside the residence or using the services of catering and retail facilities. With this in mind, restaurants are forced to fight in the market and to differentiate the specific offer to attract a particular segment of the market. Differentiation is possible through monitoring the trends and timely adjustments to more demanding consumer...

  1. Trends

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2009-01-01

    Shanghai Mode Lingerie continually strives to underline its status as a veritable reference on the fashion scene: an opportunity to explore trends, interpret key directions and gain an in-depth overview of lines to follow.

  2. Secular change in 13 metabolic phenotypes: A Chinese longitudinal twin study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Li, Shuxia; Pang, Zengchang; Zhang, Dongfeng

    in prospective investigations. Based on Chinese twin data collected from Danish-Chinese collaboration research, we perform twin modeling on 13 metabolic phenotypes (total cholesterol; triglyceride; high density lipoprotein (HDL); low density lipoprotein (LDL); urine acid (UA); glucose; weight; body mass index...... fitted to the secular changes in each of the 13 phenotypes with best fitting model selected based on model performance. Age and sex were included as covariates in the models to adjust for their effects on secular trend. Results: Variations in secular change in 3 lipids (total cholesterol; triglyceride...... environmental factors. Secular changes in all phenotypes are under moderate to high (e2: 0.45 - 0.79) control by unique environmental factors. Conclusions: Variations in secular change in the 13 metabolic phenotypes show limited genetic control. Our results emphasize the special importance of unique environment...

  3. Large-scale control site selection for population monitoring: an example assessing Sage-grouse trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fedy, Bradley C.; O'Donnell, Michael; Bowen, Zachary H.

    2015-01-01

    Human impacts on wildlife populations are widespread and prolific and understanding wildlife responses to human impacts is a fundamental component of wildlife management. The first step to understanding wildlife responses is the documentation of changes in wildlife population parameters, such as population size. Meaningful assessment of population changes in potentially impacted sites requires the establishment of monitoring at similar, nonimpacted, control sites. However, it is often difficult to identify appropriate control sites in wildlife populations. We demonstrated use of Geographic Information System (GIS) data across large spatial scales to select biologically relevant control sites for population monitoring. Greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus; hearafter, sage-grouse) are negatively affected by energy development, and monitoring of sage-grouse population within energy development areas is necessary to detect population-level responses. Weused population data (1995–2012) from an energy development area in Wyoming, USA, the Atlantic Rim Project Area (ARPA), and GIS data to identify control sites that were not impacted by energy development for population monitoring. Control sites were surrounded by similar habitat and were within similar climate areas to the ARPA. We developed nonlinear trend models for both the ARPA and control sites and compared long-term trends from the 2 areas. We found little difference between the ARPA and control sites trends over time. This research demonstrated an approach for control site selection across large landscapes and can be used as a template for similar impact-monitoring studies. It is important to note that identification of changes in population parameters between control and treatment sites is only the first step in understanding the mechanisms that underlie those changes. Published 2015. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

  4. Secular humanism and "scientific psychiatry".

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szasz, Thomas

    2006-04-25

    The Council for Secular Humanism identifies Secular Humanism as a "way of thinking and living" committed to rejecting authoritarian beliefs and embracing "individual freedom and responsibility ... and cooperation." The paradigmatic practices of psychiatry are civil commitment and insanity defense, that is, depriving innocent persons of liberty and excusing guilty persons of their crimes: the consequences of both are confinement in institutions ostensibly devoted to the treatment of mental diseases. Black's Law Dictionary states: "Every confinement of the person is an 'imprisonment,' whether it be in a common prison, or in private house, or in the stocks, or even by forcibly detaining one in the public streets." Accordingly, I maintain that Secular Humanism is incompatible with the principles and practices of psychiatry.

  5. Secular humanism and "scientific psychiatry"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szasz, Thomas

    2006-01-01

    The Council for Secular Humanism identifies Secular Humanism as a "way of thinking and living" committed to rejecting authoritarian beliefs and embracing "individual freedom and responsibility ... and cooperation." The paradigmatic practices of psychiatry are civil commitment and insanity defense, that is, depriving innocent persons of liberty and excusing guilty persons of their crimes: the consequences of both are confinement in institutions ostensibly devoted to the treatment of mental diseases. Black's Law Dictionary states: "Every confinement of the person is an 'imprisonment,' whether it be in a common prison, or in private house, or in the stocks, or even by forcibly detaining one in the public streets." Accordingly, I maintain that Secular Humanism is incompatible with the principles and practices of psychiatry. PMID:16759353

  6. Secular humanism and "scientific psychiatry"

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Szasz Thomas

    2006-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract The Council for Secular Humanism identifies Secular Humanism as a "way of thinking and living" committed to rejecting authoritarian beliefs and embracing "individual freedom and responsibility ... and cooperation." The paradigmatic practices of psychiatry are civil commitment and insanity defense, that is, depriving innocent persons of liberty and excusing guilty persons of their crimes: the consequences of both are confinement in institutions ostensibly devoted to the treatment of mental diseases. Black's Law Dictionary states: "Every confinement of the person is an 'imprisonment,' whether it be in a common prison, or in private house, or in the stocks, or even by forcibly detaining one in the public streets." Accordingly, I maintain that Secular Humanism is incompatible with the principles and practices of psychiatry.

  7. Cadmium, lead, mercury and arsenic in animal feed and feed materials - trend analysis of monitoring results.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adamse, Paulien; Van der Fels-Klerx, H J Ine; de Jong, Jacob

    2017-03-02

    This study aimed to obtain insights into the presence of cadmium, lead, mercury and arsenic in feed materials and feed over time, for the purpose of guiding national monitoring. Data from the Dutch feed monitoring program and from representatives of the feed industry in the period 2007-2013 were used. Data covered the concentrations of cadmium, lead, mercury and arsenic in a variety of feed materials and compound feeds in The Netherlands. Trends in the percentage of samples that exceeded the maximum limit (ML), set by the European Commission, and trends in average, median and 90(th) percentile concentrations of each of these elements per feed material or compound feed were investigated. Based on the results, monitoring for cadmium, lead, mercury and arsenic should focus on feed material of mineral origin, feed material of marine origin, especially fish meal, seaweed and algae as well as feed additives belonging to the functional groups of (i) trace elements (notably cupric sulphate, zinc oxide and manganese oxide for arsenic) and (ii) binders and anti-caking agents. Mycotoxin binders are a new group of feed additives that also need attention. For complementary feed it is important to make a proper distinction between mineral and non-mineral feed because the ML in the latter group is usually lower. In seaweed/algae products a relatively large number of samples contained arsenic concentrations that exceeded the ML. Forage crops in general do not need high priority in monitoring programs, although for arsenic grass meal still needs attention.

  8. Census techniques and methods for monitoring population trends and reproductive success of marine birds: A preliminary annotated bibliography draft

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — This draft biography draws together 79 published and unpublished sources which are helpful in designing and conducting monitoring population trends and reproductive...

  9. Automated retinal imaging and trend analysis – a tool for health monitoring

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roesch K

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Karin Roesch, Tristan Swedish, Ramesh Raskar MIT Media Lab, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA Abstract: Most current diagnostic devices are expensive, require trained specialists to operate and gather static images with sparse data points. This leads to preventable diseases going undetected until late stage, resulting in greatly narrowed treatment options. This is especially true for retinal imaging. Future solutions are low cost, portable, self-administered by the patient, and capable of providing multiple data points, population analysis, and trending. This enables preventative interventions through mass accessibility, constant monitoring, and predictive modeling. Keywords: next-generation imaging technology, early disease indicators, predictive health assessment, predictive analysis, mass accessibility

  10. Secular Acceleration of Barnard's Star

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartlett, Jennifer L.; Ianna, P. A.

    2009-01-01

    Barnard's Star should have significant secular acceleration because it lies close to the Sun and has the highest known proper motion along with a large radial velocity. It will pass within about 1.4 pc in another 9,750 years. Secular changes in proper motion and radial velocity are essentially the Coriolis and centrifugal accelerations, respectively, arising from use of a rotating coordinate system defined by the Sun-star radius vector. Although stellar space velocities measured with respect to the Sun are essentially constant, these perspective effects arise with changing distance and viewing angle. Hipparcos-2 plus Nidever et al. (2002) predict a perspective change in the proper motion of 1.285±0.006 mas yr-2 for Barnard's Star. Recent analysis of 900+ photographic plates between 1968 and 1998 with the 26.25-in (0.67-m) McCormick refractor detected a secular acceleration of 1.25±0.04 mas yr-2, which agrees with the predicted value within the measurement errors. Earlier, Benedict et al. (1999) measured its secular acceleration to be 1.2±0.2 mas yr-2 using 3 years of HST FGS observations. Similarly, a perspective change in radial velocity of 4.50±0.01 m s-1 yr-1 can be predicted for Barnard's Star. Kürster et al. (2003) detected variations in their observations of it that are largely attributable to secular acceleration along the line of sight with some contribution from stellar activity. Although secular acceleration effects have been limited for past studies of stellar motions, they can be significant for observations extending over decades or for high-precision measurements required to detect extrasolar planets. Future studies will need to consider this factor for the nearest stars and for those with large proper motions or radial velocities. NSF grant AST 98-20711; Litton Marine Systems; Peninsula Community Foundation Levinson Fund; UVa Governor's Fellowship, Dean's F&A Fellowship, and Graduate School of Arts and Sciences; and, US Naval Observatory

  11. Time trends in fish populations in metropolitan France: insights from national monitoring data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poulet, N; Beaulaton, L; Dembski, S

    2011-12-01

    Using the electrofishing database of the French National Agency for Water and Aquatic Environment (Onema), the time trends of 48 freshwater fish taxa at 590 sites monitored for at least 8 years from 1990 to 2009 were investigated. The results demonstrated that species richness increased steadily from the beginning of the monitoring period. This is congruent with the finding that the number of species displaying a significant increase in spatial distribution or abundance was greater than those showing a significant decrease. Some species, however, had declined both in occurrence and abundance, e.g. tench Tinca tinca, common bream Abramis brama, brown trout Salmo trutta and European eel Anguilla anguilla. The species showing the most spectacular colonization were non-native, e.g. topmouth gudgeon Pseudorasbora parva, wels catfish Silurus glanis and asp Aspius aspius. The time trends in population density were related to the maximal body size, habitat requirement, occurrence and abundance and the status (i.e. native or exotic) but not to the spawning temperature.

  12. Wind Turbine Condition Monitoring: State-of-the-Art Review, New Trends, and Future Challenges

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pierre Tchakoua

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available As the demand for wind energy continues to grow at exponential rates, reducing operation and maintenance (OM costs and improving reliability have become top priorities in wind turbine (WT maintenance strategies. In addition to the development of more highly evolved WT designs intended to improve availability, the application of reliable and cost-effective condition-monitoring (CM techniques offers an efficient approach to achieve this goal. This paper provides a general review and classification of wind turbine condition monitoring (WTCM methods and techniques with a focus on trends and future challenges. After highlighting the relevant CM, diagnosis, and maintenance analysis, this work outlines the relationship between these concepts and related theories, and examines new trends and future challenges in the WTCM industry. Interesting insights from this research are used to point out strengths and weaknesses in today’s WTCM industry and define research priorities needed for the industry to meet the challenges in wind industry technological evolution and market growth.

  13. A wireless sensor network for urban traffic characterization and trend monitoring.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernández-Lozano, J J; Martín-Guzmán, Miguel; Martín-Ávila, Juan; García-Cerezo, A

    2015-10-15

    Sustainable mobility requires a better management of the available infrastructure resources. To achieve this goal, it is necessary to obtain accurate data about road usage, in particular in urban areas. Although a variety of sensor alternates for urban traffic exist, they usually require extensive investments in the form of construction works for installation, processing means, etc. Wireless Sensor Networks (WSN) are an alternative to acquire urban traffic data, allowing for flexible, easy deployment. Together with the use of the appropriate sensors, like Bluetooth identification, and associate processing, WSN can provide the means to obtain in real time data like the origin-destination matrix, a key tool for trend monitoring which previously required weeks or months to be completed. This paper presents a system based on WSN designed to characterize urban traffic, particularly traffic trend monitoring through the calculation of the origin-destination matrix in real time by using Bluetooth identification. Additional sensors are also available integrated in different types of nodes. Experiments in real conditions have been performed, both for separate sensors (Bluetooth, ultrasound and laser), and for the whole system, showing the feasibility of this approach.

  14. Trends in Surface-Water Quality at Selected Ambient-Monitoring Network Stations in Kentucky, 1979-2004

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crain, Angela S.; Martin, Gary R.

    2009-01-01

    Increasingly complex water-management decisions require water-quality monitoring programs that provide data for multiple purposes, including trend analyses, to detect improvement or deterioration in water quality with time. Understanding surface-water-quality trends assists resource managers in identifying emerging water-quality concerns, planning remediation efforts, and evaluating the effectiveness of the remediation. This report presents the results of a study conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Kentucky Energy and Environment Cabinet-Kentucky Division of Water, to analyze and summarize long-term water-quality trends of selected properties and water-quality constituents in selected streams in Kentucky's ambient stream water-quality monitoring network. Trends in surface-water quality for 15 properties and water-quality constituents were analyzed at 37 stations with drainage basins ranging in size from 62 to 6,431 square miles. Analyses of selected physical properties (temperature, specific conductance, pH, dissolved oxygen, hardness, and suspended solids), for major ions (chloride and sulfate), for selected metals (iron and manganese), for nutrients (total phosphorus, total nitrogen, total Kjeldahl nitrogen, nitrite plus nitrate), and for fecal coliform were compiled from the Commonwealth's ambient water-quality monitoring network. Trend analyses were completed using the S-Plus statistical software program S-Estimate Trend (S-ESTREND), which detects trends in water-quality data. The trend-detection techniques supplied by this software include the Seasonal Kendall nonparametric methods for use with uncensored data or data censored with only one reporting limit and the Tobit-regression parametric method for use with data censored with multiple reporting limits. One of these tests was selected for each property and water-quality constituent and applied to all station records so that results of the trend procedure could be compared among

  15. HAS ROMANIA BECOME A SECULAR SOCIETY?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    IRINA STAHL

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The article examines the question of secularization of Europe, and in particular of Romania, by using multiple international data sets. Secularization has been defined separation of the state government and religious authority resulting in a decrease in church attendance, a diminished trust in religious institutions, a lessening of religions’ importance in society, an increase in religious diversity with a concomitant decrease in group cohesiveness, and the rise of situational ethics and moral relativism. Several theories of secularization are explored in an effort to determine the presence of a secular continuum. Although there may be an increase of secular behaviours in member states of the European Union, a claim of growing secularism in Romania is not supported by an examination of the multiple data sets

  16. Secular resonances with Ceres and Vesta

    CERN Document Server

    Tsirvoulis, Georgios

    2016-01-01

    In this work we explore dynamical perturbations induced by the massive asteroids Ceres and Vesta on main-belt asteroids through secular resonances. First we determine the location of the linear secular resonances with Ceres and Vesta in the main belt, using a purely numerical technique. Then we use a set of numerical simulations of fictitious asteroids to investigate the importance of these secular resonances in the orbital evolution of main-belt asteroids. We found, evaluating the magnitude of the perturbations in the proper elements of the test particles, that in some cases the strength of these secular resonances is comparable to that of known non-linear secular resonances with the giant planets. Finally we explore the asteroid families that are crossed by the secular resonances we studied, and identified several cases where the latter seem to play an important role in their post-impact evolution.

  17. Monitoring temporal trends of air pollution in an urban area using mosses and lichens as biomonitors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerdol, Renato; Marchesini, Roberta; Iacumin, Paola; Brancaleoni, Lisa

    2014-08-01

    Monitoring air quality by using living organisms as biomonitors has received increasing attention in recent years. However, rather few studies were based on the concomitant use of passive biomonitoring (based on the different sensitivity of living organisms to air pollution) and active biomonitoring (based on their capacity to accumulate pollutants in the tissues). We carried out a repeated survey of an urban area in Northern Italy, with the objective of comparing temporal trends of different kinds of air pollutants with bioindication (passive biomonitoring) and bioaccumulation (active biomonitoring) techniques. During a five-year interval, temporal patterns of moss metal concentrations underwent significant changes probably due to intercurring variations in the importance of different pollution sources. Nitrogen (N) concentration in moss tissues also decreased and was paralleled by increasing diversity of epiphytic lichens. Increasing δ(15)N in moss tissues suggested a higher contribution of oxidized N species compared with reduced N species.

  18. An Integrated Architecture for On-Board Aircraft Engine Performance Trend Monitoring and Gas Path Fault Diagnostics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simon, Donald L.

    2010-01-01

    Aircraft engine performance trend monitoring and gas path fault diagnostics are closely related technologies that assist operators in managing the health of their gas turbine engine assets. Trend monitoring is the process of monitoring the gradual performance change that an aircraft engine will naturally incur over time due to turbomachinery deterioration, while gas path diagnostics is the process of detecting and isolating the occurrence of any faults impacting engine flow-path performance. Today, performance trend monitoring and gas path fault diagnostic functions are performed by a combination of on-board and off-board strategies. On-board engine control computers contain logic that monitors for anomalous engine operation in real-time. Off-board ground stations are used to conduct fleet-wide engine trend monitoring and fault diagnostics based on data collected from each engine each flight. Continuing advances in avionics are enabling the migration of portions of the ground-based functionality on-board, giving rise to more sophisticated on-board engine health management capabilities. This paper reviews the conventional engine performance trend monitoring and gas path fault diagnostic architecture commonly applied today, and presents a proposed enhanced on-board architecture for future applications. The enhanced architecture gains real-time access to an expanded quantity of engine parameters, and provides advanced on-board model-based estimation capabilities. The benefits of the enhanced architecture include the real-time continuous monitoring of engine health, the early diagnosis of fault conditions, and the estimation of unmeasured engine performance parameters. A future vision to advance the enhanced architecture is also presented and discussed

  19. Proceedings of the 26th Seismic Research Review: Trends in Nuclear Explosion Monitoring

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chavez, Francesca C [Editor; Benson, Jody [Editor; Hanson, Stephanie [Editor; Mark, Carol [Editor; Wetovsky, Marvin A [Editor

    2004-09-21

    These proceedings contain papers prepared for the 26th Seismic Research Review: Trends in Nuclear Explosion Monitoring, held 21-23 September, 2004 in Orlando, Florida. These papers represent the combined research related to ground-based nuclear explosion monitoring funded by the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA), Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA), Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL), US Army Space and Missile Defense Command, and other invited sponsors. The scientific objectives of the research are to improve the United States capability to detect, locate, and identify nuclear explosions. The purpose of the meeting is to provide the sponsoring agencies, as well as potential users, an opportunity to review research accomplished during the preceding year and to discuss areas of investigation for the coming year. For the researchers, it provides a forum for the exchange of scientific information toward achieving program goals, and an opportunity to discuss results and future plans. Paper topics include: seismic regionalization and calibration; detection and location of sources; wave propagation from source to receiver; the nature of seismic sources, including mining practices; hydroacoustic, infrasound, and radionuclide methods; on-site inspection; and data processing.

  20. Secular obliquity variations for Ceres

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bills, Bruce; Scott, Bryan R.; Nimmo, Francis

    2016-10-01

    We have constructed secular variation models for the orbit and spin poles of the asteroid (1) Ceres, and used them to examine how the obliquity, or angular separation between spin and orbit poles, varies over a time span of several million years. The current obliquity is 4.3 degrees, which means that there are some regions near the poles which do not receive any direct Sunlight. The Dawn mission has provided an improved estimate of the spin pole orientation, and of the low degree gravity field. That allows us to estimate the rate at which the spin pole precesses about the instantaneous orbit pole.The orbit of Ceres is secularly perturbed by the planets, with Jupiter's influence dominating. The current inclination of the orbit plane, relative to the ecliptic, is 10.6 degrees. However, it varies between 7.27 and 11.78 degrees, with dominant periods of 22.1 and 39.6 kyr. The spin pole precession rate parameter has a period of 205 kyr, with current uncertainty of 3%, dominated by uncertainty in the mean moment of inertia of Ceres.The obliquity varies, with a dominant period of 24.5 kyr, with maximum values near 26 degrees, and minimum values somewhat less than the present value. Ceres is currently near to a minimum of its secular obliquity variations.The near-surface thermal environment thus has at least 3 important time scales: diurnal (9.07 hours), annual (4.60 years), and obliquity cycle (24.5 kyr). The annual thermal wave likely only penetrates a few meters, but the much long thermal wave associated with the obliquity cycle has a skin depth larger by a factor of 70 or so, depending upon thermal properties in the subsurface.

  1. Microcystins and cyanobacteria trends in a 14 year monitoring of a temperate eutrophic reservoir (Aguieira, Portugal).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vasconcelos, Vitor; Morais, João; Vale, Micaela

    2011-03-01

    A monitoring program of cyanobacteria and cyanotoxins in the framework of the surveillance of the Water Treatment Plant efficiency of the municipality of Santa Comba Dão (Portugal) was conducted from 1994 until 2007. With these data we aimed to answer the question, are MCs produced evenly over the years in a single water body? Samples were taken by the local health authorities in the site of the Water treatment plant and analyzed for total phytoplankton, cyanobacteria and the hepatotoxic cyanotoxins microcystins (MCs). Apart from 1999 and 2000, cyanobacteria represented a high proportion of total phytoplankton, attaining during several months of the year more than 90% of total phytoplankton density. A total of 24 cyanobacteria species were identified and Microcystis aeruginosa, Anabaena flos-aquae and Aphanizomenon flos-aquae were the main potentially toxic cyanobacteria species present throughout the period. MC concentration varied between 0.3 µg MC-LR eq l⁻¹ in October 98 and 87.0 µg MC-LR eq l⁻¹ in September 2001. The evolution of the average cell quota does not reveal any especial trend, although in 2001 the quota was the highest but not significantly different from the other years. The threshold limit of 5000 cells per ml of Microcystis aeruginosa should be taken into consideration in monitoring programs because the 10,000 cells per ml proposed by several other national programs might not be enough to prevent human health risks. Due to high annual variation in MC cell quota, monitoring programs of cyanobacteria and MC should be extended in time, since short term studies do not provide us the data needed for a safe management of a water body used for human purposes.

  2. Out of Time: The Limits of Secular Critique

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Holly Randell-Moon

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available A review of Talal Asad, Wendy Brown, Judith Butler, Saba Mahmood, Is Critique Secular? Blasphemy, Injury, and Free Speech and Michael Warner, Jonathan Vanantwerpen, and Craig Calhoun (eds, Varieties of Secularism in a Secular Age.

  3. Out of time : the limits of secular critique

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Randell-Moon, Holly

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available A review of Talal Asad, Wendy Brown, Judith Butler, Saba Mahmood, 'Is critique secular? Blasphemy, injury, and free speech' and Michael Warner, Jonathan Vanantwerpen, and Craig Calhoun (eds, 'Varieties of secularism in a secular age'.

  4. Unsafe Gods: Security, Secularism and Schooling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davies, Lynn

    2014-01-01

    This book makes the compelling argument that religion can be complicit in conflict and that a new secularism is vital to foster security. Using insights from complexity science, it shows how dynamic secularism can be used to accommodate diverse faiths and beliefs within worldly politics. Exploration of the interplay of religion and education in…

  5. Textbook Censorship and Secular Humanism in Perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parker, Franklin

    1988-01-01

    Reviews the activities of the New Christian Right (NCR) related to teaching evolution in the public schools. Describes the effects of legislation and court litigation on the NCR's efforts to eliminate secular humanism from textbooks. Provides an NCR definition of secular humanism. (LS)

  6. The Secular University and Its Critics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jobani, Yuval

    2016-01-01

    Universities in the USA have become bastions of secularity in a distinctly religious society. As such, they are subjected to a variety of robust and rigorous religious critiques. In this paper I do not seek to engage in the debate between the supporters of the secular university and its opponents. Furthermore, I do not claim to summarize the…

  7. Moderate Secularism, Difference Sensitivity and Contextualism

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lægaard, Sune

    2009-01-01

    The article is a rejoinder to Tariq Modood's reply (Politics, Vol. 29, No. 1, 2009) to my article 'Moderate Secularism and Multicultural Equality' (Politics, Vol 28, No. 3, 2008).......The article is a rejoinder to Tariq Modood's reply (Politics, Vol. 29, No. 1, 2009) to my article 'Moderate Secularism and Multicultural Equality' (Politics, Vol 28, No. 3, 2008)....

  8. Moderate Secularism, Difference Sensitivity and Contextualism

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lægaard, Sune

    2009-01-01

    The article is a rejoinder to Tariq Modood's reply (Politics, Vol. 29, No. 1, 2009) to my article 'Moderate Secularism and Multicultural Equality' (Politics, Vol 28, No. 3, 2008).......The article is a rejoinder to Tariq Modood's reply (Politics, Vol. 29, No. 1, 2009) to my article 'Moderate Secularism and Multicultural Equality' (Politics, Vol 28, No. 3, 2008)....

  9. Secularism, Criticism, and Religious Studies Pedagogy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Britt, Brian

    2006-01-01

    Secularization, the idea that religion would gradually diminish over time, was once widely assumed to be true by scholars of religion, but the unexpected resurgence of religious traditions has called it into question. Related debates on the distinction between religion and the secular have destabilized religious studies further. What does the…

  10. Secular Schools, Spirituality and Maori Values

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fraser, Deborah

    2004-01-01

    New Zealand has had free, state, secular education since 1877, but just what is meant by secularism is changing. Since the 1980s the growth of Maori education initiatives has mushroomed and these place emphasis on Maori values and beliefs, including spirituality. In addition, in 1999 a definition and statement on spirituality appeared in the…

  11. Unsafe Gods: Security, Secularism and Schooling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davies, Lynn

    2014-01-01

    This book makes the compelling argument that religion can be complicit in conflict and that a new secularism is vital to foster security. Using insights from complexity science, it shows how dynamic secularism can be used to accommodate diverse faiths and beliefs within worldly politics. Exploration of the interplay of religion and education in…

  12. Are Social Studies Teachers Teaching Secular Humanism?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farmer, Rod

    1980-01-01

    Discusses the controversy over teaching what religious fundamentalists and social conservatives consider secular humanism. Suggests that modern social studies does not support secular humanism even though they share epistemological and ethical assumptions (the use of the scientific method, intelligent reasoning). Provides suggestions for teachers…

  13. Temporal trends of Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs) in arctic air: 20 years of monitoring under the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hung, Hayley; Katsoyiannis, Athanasios A; Brorström-Lundén, Eva; Olafsdottir, Kristin; Aas, Wenche; Breivik, Knut; Bohlin-Nizzetto, Pernilla; Sigurdsson, Arni; Hakola, Hannele; Bossi, Rossana; Skov, Henrik; Sverko, Ed; Barresi, Enzo; Fellin, Phil; Wilson, Simon

    2016-10-01

    Temporal trends of Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs) measured in Arctic air are essential in understanding long-range transport to remote regions and to evaluate the effectiveness of national and international chemical control initiatives, such as the Stockholm Convention (SC) on POPs. Long-term air monitoring of POPs is conducted under the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP) at four Arctic stations: Alert, Canada; Stórhöfði, Iceland; Zeppelin, Svalbard; and Pallas, Finland, since the 1990s using high volume air samplers. Temporal trends observed for POPs in Arctic air are summarized in this study. Most POPs listed for control under the SC, e.g. polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethanes (DDTs) and chlordanes, are declining slowly in Arctic air, reflecting the reduction of primary emissions during the last two decades and increasing importance of secondary emissions. Slow declining trends also signifies their persistence and slow degradation under the Arctic environment, such that they are still detectable after being banned for decades in many countries. Some POPs, e.g. hexachlorobenzene (HCB) and lighter PCBs, showed increasing trends at specific locations, which may be attributable to warming in the region and continued primary emissions at source. Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) do not decline in air at Canada's Alert station but are declining in European Arctic air, which may be due to influence of local sources at Alert and the much higher historical usage of PBDEs in North America. Arctic air samples are screened for chemicals of emerging concern to provide information regarding their environmental persistence (P) and long-range transport potential (LRTP), which are important criteria for classification as a POP under SC. The AMAP network provides consistent and comparable air monitoring data of POPs for trend development and acts as a bridge between national monitoring programs and SC's Global Monitoring

  14. Theory of Secular Chaos and Mercury's Orbit

    CERN Document Server

    Lithwick, Yoram

    2010-01-01

    We study the chaotic orbital evolution of planetary systems, focusing on secular (i.e., orbit-averaged) interactions, because these often dominate on long timescales. We first focus on the evolution of a test particle that is forced by multiple massive planets. To linear order in eccentricity and inclination, its orbit precesses with constant frequencies. But nonlinearities can shift the frequencies into and out of secular resonance with the planets' eigenfrequencies, or with linear combinations of those frequencies. The overlap of these nonlinear secular resonances drive secular chaos in planetary systems. We quantify the resulting dynamics for the first time by calculating the locations and widths of nonlinear secular resonances. When results from both analytical calculations and numerical integrations are displayed together in a newly developed "map of the mean momenta" (MMM), the agreement is excellent. This map is particularly revealing for non-coplanar planetary systems and demonstrates graphically that...

  15. SECULARISM AND THE CONSTITUTION: CAN GOVERNMENT BE TOO SECULAR?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jorge O. Elorza

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available      When the “jurisdictions” of religion and science overlap, the conclusions they each reach sometimes conflict. For example, religiously conservative views towards sex or the formation of the universe may be undermined by the secular instruction students receive in public schools. With respect to normative matters, such as views towards sex, courts have resolved the conflicts by stating that public school teachers can neither directly contradict religious beliefs nor compel adherence to the secular view. However, with respect to empirical matters, such as how planets formed, courts have implicitly recognized—although never expressly stated—that a different standard must apply. So long as sufficient evidence exists to support an empirical claim, a public school may teach it. The fact that it directly contradicts a deeply held religious belief, as does evolution for example, is irrelevant.      How far does this principle extend? If scientific evidence leads us to conclude that a particular aspect of God cannot be true, can this be taught in the public schools? In order to explore this issue, I first lay out a framework that isolates the tension that exists between religion and science and that introduces the concept of the memist God. Second, I examine the extent to which science has spoken to the question of God’s existence and I determine that it has certainly addressed one particular aspect. Specifically, science has disconfirmed the claim that the theist God has the power to violate the laws of physics. Last, once the issues are properly identified and the framework set, I explore whether teaching the non-existence of the theist God would violate the underlying values of the religion clauses. I conclude, first, that teaching that the theist God does not exist would not violate any of the underlying values and second, that the consequences of doing so are not as far-reaching as may be initially believed.

  16. Sequential change detection and monitoring of temporal trends in random-effects meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dogo, Samson Henry; Clark, Allan; Kulinskaya, Elena

    2016-12-08

    Temporal changes in magnitude of effect sizes reported in many areas of research are a threat to the credibility of the results and conclusions of meta-analysis. Numerous sequential methods for meta-analysis have been proposed to detect changes and monitor trends in effect sizes so that meta-analysis can be updated when necessary and interpreted based on the time it was conducted. The difficulties of sequential meta-analysis under the random-effects model are caused by dependencies in increments introduced by the estimation of the heterogeneity parameter τ(2) . In this paper, we propose the use of a retrospective cumulative sum (CUSUM)-type test with bootstrap critical values. This method allows retrospective analysis of the past trajectory of cumulative effects in random-effects meta-analysis and its visualization on a chart similar to CUSUM chart. Simulation results show that the new method demonstrates good control of Type I error regardless of the number or size of the studies and the amount of heterogeneity. Application of the new method is illustrated on two examples of medical meta-analyses. © 2016 The Authors. Research Synthesis Methods published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  17. Design of the National Trends Network for monitoring the chemistry of atmospheric precipitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robertson, J.K.; Wilson, J.W.

    1985-01-01

    Long-term monitoring (10 years minimum) of the chemistry of wet deposition will be conducted at National Trends Network (NTN) sites across the United States. Precipitation samples will be collected at sites that represent broad regional characteristics. Design of the NTN considered four basic elements during construction of a model to distribute 50, 75, 100, 125 or 150 sites. The modeling oriented design was supplemented with guidance developed during the course of the site selection process. Ultimately, a network of 151 sites was proposed. The basic elements of the design are: (1) Assurance that all areas of the country are represented in the network on the basis of regional ecological properties (96 sites); (2) Placement of additional sites east of the Rocky Mountains to better define high deposition gradients (27 sites); (3) Placement of sites to assure that potentially sensitive regions are represented (15 sites); (4) Placement of sites to allow for other considerations, such as urban area effects (5 sites), intercomparison with Canada (3 sites), and apparent disparities in regional coverage (5 sites). Site selection stressed areas away from urban centers, large point sources, or ocean influences. Local factors, such as stable land ownership, nearby small emission sources (about 10 km), and close-by roads and fireplaces (about 0.5 km) were also considered. All proposed sites will be visited as part of the second phase of the study.

  18. Sequential change detection and monitoring of temporal trends in random‐effects meta‐analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dogo, Samson Henry; Clark, Allan

    2016-01-01

    Temporal changes in magnitude of effect sizes reported in many areas of research are a threat to the credibility of the results and conclusions of meta‐analysis. Numerous sequential methods for meta‐analysis have been proposed to detect changes and monitor trends in effect sizes so that meta‐analysis can be updated when necessary and interpreted based on the time it was conducted. The difficulties of sequential meta‐analysis under the random‐effects model are caused by dependencies in increments introduced by the estimation of the heterogeneity parameter τ 2. In this paper, we propose the use of a retrospective cumulative sum (CUSUM)‐type test with bootstrap critical values. This method allows retrospective analysis of the past trajectory of cumulative effects in random‐effects meta‐analysis and its visualization on a chart similar to CUSUM chart. Simulation results show that the new method demonstrates good control of Type I error regardless of the number or size of the studies and the amount of heterogeneity. Application of the new method is illustrated on two examples of medical meta‐analyses. © 2016 The Authors. Research Synthesis Methods published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. PMID:27933728

  19. Towards better service in restaurants by monitoring trends: Display of nutritional values on the menus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivkov Milan

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Business obligations, the manner and pace of life today, and a large number of options when it comes to eating out, require that at least one meal is consumed outside the residence or using the services of catering and retail facilities. With this in mind, restaurants are forced to fight in the market and to differentiate the specific offer to attract a particular segment of the market. Differentiation is possible through monitoring the trends and timely adjustments to more demanding consumer needs. In this way, restaurateurs also contribute to greater customer satisfaction through quality service, which also has a positive effect on the restaurant and sales performance. Based on the results of the survey of 82 respondents, it was concluded that nutritional information shown within menus is of no importance, and also that such information does not affect the selection of dishes. Although nutritional information can be helpful in selecting more favourable and healthy food, neither men nor women care about it.

  20. Applications of MODIS Fluorescent Line Height Measurements to Monitor Water Quality Trends and Algal Bloom Activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, Andrew; Moreno-Mardinan, Max; Ryan, John P.

    2012-01-01

    Recent advances in satellite and airborne remote sensing, such as improvements in sensor and algorithm calibrations, processing techniques and atmospheric correction procedures have provided for increased coverage of remote-sensing, ocean-color products for coastal regions. In particular, for the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) sensor calibration updates, improved aerosol retrievals and new aerosol models has led to improved atmospheric correction algorithms for turbid waters and have improved the retrieval of ocean color in coastal waters. This has opened the way for studying ocean phenomena and processes at finer spatial scales, such as the interactions at the land-sea interface, trends in coastal water quality and algal blooms. Human population growth and changes in coastal management practices have brought about significant changes in the concentrations of organic and inorganic, particulate and dissolved substances entering the coastal ocean. There is increasing concern that these inputs have led to declines in water quality and have increase local concentrations of phytoplankton, which cause harmful algal blooms. In two case studies we present MODIS observations of fluorescence line height (FLH) to 1) assess trends in water quality for Tampa Bay, Florida and 2) illustrate seasonal and annual variability of algal bloom activity in Monterey Bay, California as well as document estuarine/riverine plume induced red tide events. In a comprehensive analysis of long term (2003-2011) in situ monitoring data and satellite imagery from Tampa Bay we assess the validity of the MODIS FLH product against chlorophyll-a and a suite of water quality parameters taken in a variety of conditions throughout a large optically complex estuarine system. A systematic analysis of sampling sites throughout the bay is undertaken to understand how the relationship between FLH and in situ chlorophyll-a responds to varying conditions and to develop a near decadal trend in

  1. 1993至2010年中国部分地区单胎初产妇剖宫产和孕妇要求剖宫产率变化趋势%Secular trends of cesarean delivery and cesarean delivery on maternal request among primiparous women with singleton pregnancy in Southern and Northern China during 1993-2010

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    朱逸博; 李宏田; 张亚黎; 李智文; 张乐; 刘建蒙

    2012-01-01

    Objective To explore the secular trends of cesarean delivery and cesarean delivery on maternal request(CDMR)among primiparous women with singleton pregnancy in Southern and Northern China.Methods The Perinatal Healthcare Surveillance System was established in 26 counties/cities of 3 Chinese provinces since 1993.A total of 1 317 774 primiparous women with singleton pregnancy were monitored through the system during the 1993-2010 period.Chi-square tests were performed to assess the linear trends in the prevalence of cesarean delivery and CDMR.Results During the 18-year period,496 054 cesarean deliveries and 129 219 CDMRs were identified.The prevalence rates of cesarean delivery and CDMR were 37.6% and 10.0% respectively.CDMR accounted for 26.0% of all cesarean births.The prevalence of cesarean delivery increased from 29.4% during the 1993-1995 period to 58.7% during the 2006-2010 in Southern urban area,from 18.2% to 58.3% in Southern rural area and from 4.3% to 49.5% in Northern rural area.The prevalence of CDMR increased by 34 folds from 0.6% during the 1993-1995 period to 21.3% during the 2006-2010 period in Southern urban area,by 40 folds from 0.6% to 24.4% in Southern rural area and by 44 folds from 0.6% to 27.3% in Northern rural area.The proportions of CDMR in all cesarean deliveries significantly increased in all three regions.Women aged over 30 years,overweight and well-educated were more likely to experience a cesarean delivery including CDMR.Conclusion The Chinese prevalence rates of cesarean delivery and CDMR increased dramatically during the 1993-2010 period and ranked the highest in the word by 2010.And CDMR became a non-negligible component in all cesarean sections.%目的 了解中国部分地区单胎初产妇女剖宫产和孕妇要求剖宫产率的长期变化趋势.方法 对象为1993至2010年3省26县(市)单胎初产妇1317774名.用趋势卡方检验探讨剖宫产率的时间变化趋势.结果 18

  2. Contemplative Science and Secular Ethics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brendan Ozawa-de Silva

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available This article argues that the emerging project of contemplative science will be best served if it is informed by two perspectives. First, attention should be paid not only to non-analytical and/or mindfulness-based practices, but to a fuller range of contemplative practices, including analytical styles of meditation. Second, the issue of ethics must be addressed as a framework within which to understand contemplative practice: both theoretically in order to understand better the practices themselves and the traditions they come from, and practically in order to understand the ways in which contemplative practices are deployed in contemporary societies. The Tibetan Buddhist Lojong (blo sbyong tradition and secularized practices derived from it, which are now an area of study in contemplative science, are examined as a kind of case study in order to make these two points and illustrate their importance and relevance for the future of this emerging field.

  3. Secular Evolution in Disk Galaxies

    CERN Document Server

    Kormendy, John

    2013-01-01

    Self-gravitating systems evolve toward the most tightly bound configuration that is reachable via available evolution processes. The inner parts shrink and the outer parts expand, provided that some physical process transports energy or angular momentum outward. The evolution of stars, star clusters, protostellar and protoplanetary disks, black hole accretion disks, and galaxy disks are all fundamentally similar. These processes for galaxy disks are the subjects of my lectures and of this Canary Islands Winter School. Part 1 discusses formation, growth, and death of bars. Part 2 details the slow ("secular") rearrangement of angular momentum that results from interactions between stars or gas and nonaxisymmetries such as bars. We have a heuristic understanding of how this forms outer rings, inner rings, and stuff dumped into the center. Observations show that barred galaxies have central concentrations of gas and star formation. Timescales imply that they grow central "pseudobulges" that get mistaken for ellip...

  4. Anthology of Byzantine Secular Music

    OpenAIRE

    Swietlik, Alain

    2011-01-01

    Cette compilation est destinée à donner au mélomane qui hésiterait à acquérir les coffrets de la série une idée de ce qu’ils contiennent. Elle propose un choix de huit pièces prises dans les CD « Byzantine Secular Classical Music » (deux premiers coffrets), Sympotika, Pandora et Akritika. Ce CD ne peut en fait s’apprécier en connaissance de cause qu’après lecture des différents livrets des coffrets mentionnés. Il ne comporte en effet strictement aucun texte. Paradoxalement, il ne peut être ac...

  5. Secular evolution of disk galaxies

    CERN Document Server

    Combes, F

    2008-01-01

    Galaxy disks evolve through angular momentum transfers between sub-components, like gas, stars, or dark matter halos, through non axi-symmetric instabilities. The speed of this evolution is boosted in presence of a large fraction of cold and dissipative gas component. When the visible matter dominates over the whole disk, angular momentum is exchanged between gas and stars only. The gas is driven towards the center by bars, stalled transiently in resonance rings, and driven further by embedded bars, which it contributes to destroy. From a small-scale molecular torus, the gas can then inflow from viscous torques, dynamical friction, or m=1 perturbations. In the weakened bar phases, multiple-speed spiral patterns can develop and help the galaxy to accrete external gas flowing from cosmic filaments. The various phases of secular evolution are illustrated by numerical simulations.

  6. Affective Activism and Political Secularism

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Reestorff, Camilla Møhring

    2018-01-01

    such as ‘our god is women’, ‘topless jihadists’ (Taylor 2013), and ‘godless witches’ (Shevchenko 2015). In this chapter I investigate a reoccurring paradox: namely that Femen attacks religions and religious institutions, while embedding references to religion in their activist imaginary. Christianity and Islam...... spectacles in which icon bodies become trigger-texts for affective attunement and events. Thirdly, the chapter investigates the relationship between Femen and the so-called ‘New Atheism’ and the way in which different types of atheist movements conjoin in a peculiar fight on behalf of Muslim women....... This leads to the chapter’s final argument: namely that Femen’s atheist disbelief manifests as a specific form of political secularism (Mahmood 2016) that is simultaneously governing religion and embedded in a religious imaginary....

  7. Secular Evolution in Disk Galaxies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kormendy, John

    2013-10-01

    Self-gravitating systems evolve toward the most tightly bound configuration that is reachable via the evolution processes that are available to them. They do this by spreading -- the inner parts shrink while the outer parts expand -- provided that some physical process efficiently transports energy or angular momentum outward. The reason is that self-gravitating systems have negative specific heats. As a result, the evolution of stars, star clusters, protostellar and protoplanetary disks, black hole accretion disks and galaxy disks are fundamentally similar. How evolution proceeds then depends on the evolution processes that are available to each kind of self-gravitating system. These processes and their consequences for galaxy disks are the subjects of my lectures and of this Canary Islands Winter School. I begin with a review of the formation, growth and death of bars. Then I review the slow (`secular') rearrangement of energy, angular momentum, and mass that results from interactions between stars or gas clouds and collective phenomena such as bars, oval disks, spiral structure and triaxial dark haloes. The `existence-proof' phase of this work is largely over: we have a good heuristic understanding of how nonaxisymmetric structures rearrange disk gas into outer rings, inner rings and stuff dumped onto the centre. The results of simulations correspond closely to the morphology of barred and oval galaxies. Gas that is transported to small radii reaches high densities. Observations confirm that many barred and oval galaxies have dense central concentrations of gas and star formation. The result is to grow, on timescales of a few Gyr, dense central components that are frequently mistaken for classical (elliptical-galaxy-like) bulges but that were grown slowly out of the disk (not made rapidly by major mergers). The resulting picture of secular galaxy evolution accounts for the richness observed in galaxy structure. We can distinguish between classical and pseudo

  8. Geomagnetic Core Field Secular Variation Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gillet, N.; Lesur, V.; Olsen, Nils

    2010-01-01

    We analyse models describing time changes of the Earth’s core magnetic field (secular variation) covering the historical period (several centuries) and the more recent satellite era (previous decade), and we illustrate how both the information contained in the data and the a priori information...... highlight the difficulty of resolving the time variability of the high degree secular variation coefficients (i.e. the secular acceleration), arising for instance from the challenge to properly separate sources of internal and of external origin. In addition, the regularisation process may also result...

  9. (Post Secular Discomforts: Religio-Secular Disclosures in the Indian Context

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Goldie Osuri

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available The post-secular turn at the intersection of the fields of political philosophy, anthropology, religious, postcolonial and cultural studies has highlighted theological political formations which have informed differential histories of the secular. This essay examines how debates around the secular and the post-secular play out in the Indian context. Some questions that the essay addresses are: What does a reconsideration of the secular, a probing of its discomforts, offer in the Indian context? And what are the limits of a post-secular turn—in the sense of a reconsideration of spiritual belief or theological conventions as a resource for co-existence—if we think through the forms of power generated by this turn?

  10. Analysis of Chinese emissions trends of major halocarbons in monitoring the impacts of the Montreal Protocol

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, S.; Park, S.; Park, M.; Kim, J.; Muhle, J.; Fang, X.; Stohl, A.; Weiss, R. F.; Kim, K.

    2013-12-01

    nationwide effort for the Clean Development Mechanism project benefit of the Kyoto protocol. Emission rates of the halocarbons determined from the empirical emission strengths will certainly vary according to emission trend of our reference species, HCFC-22 in China from 2008 and 2012. Annual and average of HCFC-22 emissions from 2008 to 2012 will be calculated with an inverse method based on FLEXPART transport model. More detailed discussion on the emission rate estimation and its related caveats will be made in the presentation, but overall our analysis highlights the significance of long-term continuous monitoring for CFCs, HCFCs and HFCs in China to investigate impacts of Montreal Protocol regulations.

  11. Secularization versus religious revival in Eastern Europe: Church institutional resilience, state repression and divergent paths.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Northmore-Ball, Ksenia; Evans, Geoffrey

    2016-05-01

    Despite continuing for over two decades, the debate about the nature of the trends in religiosity in post-Communist Eastern Europe remains unresolved: some arguing that these countries are undergoing the same process of secularization as the West, while others insist that the entire region is experiencing a religious revival. Using national sample surveys from the early 1990s to 2007 to examine the change in demographic predictors of religiosity, we show that Catholic and Orthodox countries are experiencing different trends, the first group displaying evidence of secularization and the second of revival, and that these two different trends are likely to derive from the legacies of state repression and the differing abilities of the churches to resist such repression. We argue that the current literature has thus taken a mistakenly general approach, and that the post-Communist region consists of at least two distinct groups of societies with different trends in religiosity. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  12. Secular trends in HIV knowledge and attitudes among Vietnamese women based on the Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys, 2000, 2006, and 2011: what do we know and what should we do to protect them?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nguyen Van Huy

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Background: In Vietnam, women are at risk of HIV infection due to many factors. However, there is limited evidence about what women know and how they behave to protect themselves from HIV. Objective: The objective of this study was to investigate the trends in comprehensive HIV/AIDS knowledge, attitude, and associated factors among Vietnamese women from 2000 to 2011. Design: Data from three waves of the Vietnam Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (years 2000, 2006, and 2011 were used. Logistic regression methods examined factors associated with each of two dependent variables, HIV/AIDS knowledge and attitude toward HIV/AIDS. Results: Although there was an increasing trend in basic HIV/AIDS knowledge and positive attitude toward the disease, in Vietnamese women in the general population over the survey years, the prevalence of women with basic HIV/AIDS knowledge and positive attitude toward HIV/AIDS was low. Multivariable models indicated that women who had higher levels of education, lived in urban areas, had higher economic status, and knew about places of HIV-related services were more likely to have good HIV/AIDS knowledge (e.g. in 2011, AOR's=3.01; 1.27; 1.88; 2.03, respectively. Women with higher educational attainment, knew about HIV services, and had better HIV knowledge were more likely to report positive attitude toward HIV/AIDS (e.g. in 2011, AOR's=2.50; 1.72; 2.23, respectively. Conclusions: This study recommends that public health programs for the control of HIV, such as behavioral change communication campaigns or social policies for women, should focus not only in improving the quality of existing HIV/AIDS counseling and testing services but also on expanding coverage to increase accessibility to these services for women in rural areas. In addition, efforts to raise the level of knowledge about HIV/AIDS and improve attitude toward the disease should be undertaken simultaneously. The results of this study can help inform HIV control

  13. Secularism and Survival: An Academic Portrait.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis, Lionel S.; Altbach, Philip G.

    1982-01-01

    A survey of faculty in seven western New York State colleges with Catholic traditions revealed certain teacher characteristics and attitudes: high morale, high teaching loads and scholarly activity, basically secular attitudes, and geographic provinciality. (MSE)

  14. Adiposity and risk of cardiovascular diseases in Japan: secular trend, individual level associations and causal pathway - implications for the prevention of cardiovascular diseases in societies with rapid economic development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yatsuya, Hiroshi; Yamagishi, Kazumasa; Iso, Hiroyasu

    2011-03-01

    In Japan, overweight/obesity in adults defined as a body mass index of 25 kg/m(2) or over has roughly doubled among middle-aged men over the past few decades. In parallel with a population rightward shift in the degree of obesity, the proportion of hypertension attributed to overweight has increased. There is an indication that the incidence of ischemic stroke and coronary heart disease remains stable or has been increasing among men. These facts indicate that the relative importance of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) risk factors may have changed. Although it was confirmed at an individual level that the degree of obesity was positively associated with CVD incidence, there is a sizeable proportion of individuals who are at an increased CVD risk state without being overweight/obese in today's Japan. Thus, further implementation and promotion of activities are needed to bring about meaningful changes in the obesity trend in communities that are harmonized with other domains of CVD prevention activities.

  15. Evolução da assistência materno-infantil na cidade de São Paulo (1984-1996 Secular trends in maternal and child health care in S. Paulo city, Brazil(1984-1996

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos Augusto Monteiro

    2000-12-01

    Full Text Available OBJETIVO: Descrever a evolução da assistência materno-infantil, com base nas informações extraídas de dois inquéritos domiciliares realizados nos anos de 1984/85 e de 1995/96, na cidade de São Paulo, SP. MÉTODOS: Foram estudadas amostras probabilísticas da população entre zero e 59 meses de idade: 1.016 crianças em 1984/85 e 1.280 crianças em 1995/96. Três componentes da assistência materno-infantil foram investigados: assistência pré-natal, assistência ao parto e ao recém-nascido e assistência de puericultura. RESULTADOS: Aspectos favoráveis da evolução da assistência materno-infantil na cidade de São Paulo foram a manutenção da cobertura universal da assistência hospitalar ao parto, a expansão substancial do alojamento conjunto mãe-filho na maternidade, o aumento no número de consultas de puericultura no primeiro ano de vida e, sobretudo, a universalização da cobertura das vacinas BCG, tríplice e anti-sarampo. Aspectos desfavoráveis foram o progresso muito modesto e claramente insuficiente da assistência pré-natal, a manutenção de quase 50% de cesarianas e a não expansão da puericultura após o primeiro ano de vida. CONCLUSÕES: Estimativas sobre a evolução da assistência materno-infantil no conjunto das áreas urbanas do País em período semelhante confirma e acentua o desempenho insatisfatório da assistência pré-natal na cidade de São Paulo. Comparações favoráveis a São Paulo são registradas apenas quanto a cobertura vacinal. A influência que mudanças na assistência materno-infantil podem ter exercido sobre a evolução de diferentes indicadores do estado de saúde das crianças da cidade é examinada em artigos subseqüentes.OBJECTIVE: Two consecutive household surveys undertaken in mid-80s and mid-90s in the city of S. Paulo, Brazil, made possible to establish time trends of several child health determinants and indicators as well as to analyse the relationships among them. The

  16. [Nursing care at home and secularism].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lecointre, Brigitte

    2015-12-01

    The question of secularism, long-time confined to schools and the relationships between the Church and State, is today being raised in the field of public health. Nurses are directly affected and are integrating this dimension of secularism into their care practices. A private practice nurse describes the effect these changes are having on her practice in patients' homes. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  17. Monitoring of organic contaminants in sediments from the Korean coast: Spatial distribution and temporal trends (2001-2007).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Hee Gu; Moon, Hyo Bang; Choi, Minkyu; Yu, Jun

    2011-06-01

    Spatial and temporal trends of organic contaminants in sediments along the Korean coast were estimated through a nationwide environmental monitoring program from 2001 to 2007. The concentrations of organic contaminants in sediments along the Korean coast were relatively low or moderate compared with foreign studies. The mean detection frequencies of organic contaminants during the seven years were highest for PAHs and PCDD/Fs, followed by PCBs, DDTs, TBT and HCHs in decreasing order. Based on published sediment quality guidelines, the ecological risks of persistent organic pollutants in sediments along the Korean coast were low, despite exceedances of the ERL at 2-6 sites for DDTs, and the TEL at 9-18 sites for PCDD/Fs. Nonparametric tests to assess temporal trends revealed significant decreasing trends for PCBs and PCDD/Fs at four and three sites, respectively (pcontaminants.

  18. THE SECULAR TREND VARIATIONS AND ABRUPT CHANGE OF NORTHERN 500 hPa GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT%北半球500 hPa高度场趋势变化与突变

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    陈辉; 施能; 王永波

    2000-01-01

    The trends and abrupt variations of Northern hemisphere (NH) 500 hPa seasonal geopotential height are examined using the data for the period 195l~1998. Evidence suggests that low (high) latitude 500 hPa geopotential height displays a remarkably positive (negative) trend; the positive anomaly of the height is maintained over NW Africa, the western Mediterranean Sea and northern North Africa, mid-Pacific at lower latitudes, Lake Baikal and area to the east and NW North America; the height drops significantly over the Aleutians and North pacific, the area to the south of the Greenland and NE North America and the sector to the north of the Arabian sea. Further, analysis of abrupt change shows that the 500 hPa circulations experience noticeable sudden change twice, once around the early 1960s and again in 1976, during which, however, the height exhibits great difference between the Pacific and Atlantic. In the first case it drops (rises) over the mid Atlantic at lower latitudes (NW Africa) in contrast to the height rise (drop) over the mid-Pacific at lower latitudes and Lake Baikal (the North Pacific) in the second abruptness. Statistical test indicates that in the 1976 case the low-latitude positive abrupt change is even more noticeable compared to the negative of the North pacific, thus representing a large-scale jumping event of the northern 500 hPa height.%用1951~1998年的资料研究了北半球500 hPa四季高度场的长期趋势变化。结果表明。48年来低纬度500 hPa高度场多为正趋势而高纬度则多为负趋势。近48年低纬的西北非洲、地中海及以西的北非北部,低纬度的中太平洋、贝加尔湖及以东地区,西北北美的高度呈持续正趋势;而阿留申及北太平洋、格林兰以南及东北北美、阿拉伯海以北高度明显降低。突变分析表明,大约60年代初及1976年。500 hPa发生明显的环流突变。这两次变化在两大洋上的500 hPa有明显不同,第1次表现为

  19. The Emergence of Secular Insight Practice in Australia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Bubna-Litic

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available In recent years insight (vipassana practice in Australia has diversified in content and spawned new institutions that present a more secular face. These changes exemplify the development of global Buddhism elsewhere rather than some local, sui generis divergence from international trends. Nonetheless, the unusual prominence of Buddhist migrants in the Australian population has influenced the interaction between “traditional” and “western” Buddhists, and thus the emergence of the new trends. In interpreting the transformations in question, we make heuristic use both of Martin Baumann’s periodization of Buddhist history, with its characterization of the present stage as global, and Stephen Batchelor’s distinction between “religious Buddhism” and “dharma practice.” The Australian experience highlights the value of the earlier interaction between migrant and locally-born Buddhists, and the formative effect their later separation has on lay practice. This experience also points to the salience of forms of association when secular Buddhist practice melds with the Western values of inclusiveness and equality, not least in gender relations.

  20. Secular growth and its harmful ramifications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samaras, T T; Storms, L H

    2002-02-01

    Secular growth has been occurring in Europe for about 150 years. In the USA, since 1900, each new generation has increased by an average of 1in (2.54cm) in height and about 10lb (4.54kg) in weight. This trend has generally been viewed as favorable and tallness is admired, with the current ideal height for a man in the Western world being 6ft 2in (188cm). The Japanese have increased in height since the end of the Second World War by about 5in (12.7cm) in height and the Chinese have been growing at the rate of 2.54cm/decade since the 1950s. In spite of admiring greater height, a world population of increasing height and body-weight is a major threat to our environment, health and survival. Based on more than two decades of research, quantitative data are given for increased use of resources, and increased pollution, energy and fiscal costs resulting from a population of larger people. The laws of scaling are described to show why the impact of increasing stature has a non-linear impact on consumption, body-weight, strength, pollution and economic costs. Paleontological findings indicating that larger body size increases the risk of extinction are also discussed. Various studies indicate a loss of 0.47 year of longevity for each cm increment of height. Caloric restricted diets are also reviewed for their applicability to humans. Recommendations are made for dietary practices to moderate growth in our youth and to postpone development of chronic or degenerative diseases.

  1. Surveillance of cattle health in the Netherlands: Monitoring trends and developments using routinely collected cattle census data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santman-Berends, I M G A; Brouwer-Middelesch, H; Van Wuijckhuise, L; de Bont-Smolenaars, A J G; Van Schaik, G

    2016-11-01

    Since 2002, a national cattle health surveillance system (CHSS) is in place that consists of several surveillance components. The CHSS combines enhanced passive reporting, diagnostic and post-mortem examinations, random surveys for prevalence estimation of endemic diseases and quarterly data analysis. The aim of the data-analysis component, which is called the Trend Analysis Surveillance Component (TASC), is to monitor trends and developments in cattle health using routine census data. The challenges that were faced during the development of TASC and the merits of this surveillance component are discussed, which might be of help to those who want to develop a monitoring and surveillance system that includes data analysis. When TASC was developed, there were process-oriented challenges and analytical related issues that had to be solved. Process-oriented challenges involved data availability, confidentiality, quality, uniformity and economic value of the data. Analytical issues involved data validation, aggregation and modeling. Eventually, the results had to provide information on cattle health that was intuitive to the stakeholders and that could support decision making. Within TASC, both quarterly analysis on census data and, on demand, additional in-depth analysis are performed. The key monitoring indicators that are analyzed as part of TASC all relate to cattle health and involve parameters such as mortality, fertility, udder health and antimicrobial usage. Population-Averaged Generalized Estimating Equations, with the appropriate distribution (i.e. Gaussian, Poisson, Negative Binomial or Binomial) and link function (independent, log or logit), are used for analysis. Both trends in time and associations between cattle health indicators and potential confounders are monitored, discussed and reported to the stakeholders on a quarterly level. The flexibility of the in-depth analyses provides the possibility to conduct additional analyses when anomalies in trends

  2. Invited commentary: Monitoring fecundity over time, if we do it, then let us do it right

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Jørn; Rachootin, Pamela

    2003-01-01

    A number of investigators have pointed to the possibility of a secular decline in human fecundity due to changes in sperm concentration. It is unlikely that any historical trends will be definitively quantified, but a good case can be made for more precise monitoring of this phenomenon in the fut......A number of investigators have pointed to the possibility of a secular decline in human fecundity due to changes in sperm concentration. It is unlikely that any historical trends will be definitively quantified, but a good case can be made for more precise monitoring of this phenomenon...... because of methodological concerns. It may be impossible to obtain a quality of design that will pick up subtle changes in fecundity....

  3. Secularized Society. Conscience and Forgiveness

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elisa Grimi

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper‘s goal is to investigate secularized society by retracing its structure. What is hidden behind the notion of secularization? Our intention here is to analyse the social phenomenon of secularisation through the study of its ontology. The research will be on the identity issue, in the first place the living identity to see its resonance in social, cultural, religious and political areas. We will then arrive at the end of this paper, at the thesis – starting from the consciousness of self and the world – of a return to the authentic form of living together in reciprocal welcome as reason of personal enrichment. In such dynamics the forgiveness issue – taking into account Occidental history – will have a central, and, at the same time, redeeming role.Cette étude se propose d’étudier la société sécularisée, en retraçant sa structure. Qu’est-ce qui se cache derrière la notion de sécularisation? Ici nous entendons analyser le phénomène de la sécularisation sociale par l’intermédiaire de l’étude de son ontologie. La recherche portera sur la question de l’identité, en premier lieu sur l’identité vivante, pour voir ses résonances dans les domaines social, culturel, religieux et politique. Ainsi, nous arriverons à la thèse - à partir de la conscience du soi et du monde - pour un retour à une forme authentique du vivre ensemble dans un accueil réciproque en tant que raison d’enrichissement personnel. Dans cette dynamique la question du pardon – en tenant compte de l’histoire Occidental – aura un rôle centrale, et, en même temps, rédempteur.Il presente saggio si propone di investigare il tema della società secolarizzata ripercorrendone la struttura. Attorno alla nozione di secolarizzazione che cosa si nasconde? Si intende qui analizzare il fenomeno sociale della secolarizzazione studiandone l'ontologia. La riflessione muoverà perciò attorno al tema dell'identità, in prima istanza l

  4. Characteristics and trends on global environmental monitoring research: a bibliometric analysis based on Science Citation Index Expanded.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Di; Fu, Hui-Zhen; Ho, Yuh-Shan

    2017-09-24

    A bibliometric analysis based on the Science Citation Index Expanded from Web of Science was carried out to provide insights into research activities and trends of the environmental monitoring from 1993 to 2012. Study emphases covered publication outputs, language, categories, journals, countries/territories, institutions, words, and hot issues. The results indicated that the annual output of environmental monitoring publications increased steadily. The environmental sciences and analytical chemistry were the two most common categories. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment published the most articles. The USA and the UK ranked in the top two in terms of all five indicators. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency took the leading position of the institutions in terms of publication output. The synthesized analysis by words in title, author keywords, and KeyWords Plus provided important clues for hot issues. Researchers paid more attention on water environment monitoring than other environmental factors. The contaminants including organic contaminants, heavy metal, and radiation were most common research focuses, and the organic contaminants and heavy metal of the degree of concern were gradually rising. Sensor and biosensor played an important role in the field of environmental monitoring devices. In addition to conventional device detection method, the remote sensing, GIS, and wireless sensor networks were the mainstream environmental monitoring methods. The international organization, social awareness, and the countries' positive and effective political and policies promoted the published articles.

  5. Explaining Global Secularity: Existential Security or Education?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claude M. J. Braun

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available At the time of data analysis for this report there were 193 countries in the world. Various institutions – the United Nations, the World Health Organization, the CIA, the World Values Survey, Gallup, and many others – have performed sophisticated statistical analyses on cross-national data. The present investigation demonstrates that valid and reliable data concerning religiosity and secularity exist for most countries and that these data are comparable. Cross-national data relating to social, political, economic and cultural aspects of life were tested for correlation with religiosity/secularity. In contrast to the most widely accepted general account of secularity, the Existential Security Framework (ESF; Norris & Inglehart, 2004, secularity was not most highly related to material security, though these were highly related. Rather, secularity was most strongly related to the degree of formal education attained. Material security explained no significant variance beyond education. Thus, religion’s primary function in the world today is being replaced, not so much by the pseudo-materialistic supplication for better living conditions as posited by the ESF, but by contemporary education – extensive knowledge of contemporary cultures, philosophy, modes of thought or processes of reasoning.

  6. How much effort is enough? The power of citizen science to monitor trends in coastal cetacean species

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C.B. Embling

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Citizen scientists provide a cost-effective means of carrying out broad scale, long-term monitoring of the environment while fostering earth stewardship. In this study we investigate how much effort is required by citizen scientists to detect trends in the occurrence of a protected population of bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus. We analyse the WDC citizen science shore-based data collected over nine years (2005–2013 between April to October from within and in the vicinity of a Special Area of Conservation (SAC for bottlenose dolphins in the Moray Firth, Scotland. Watches comprised a continuous 10 minute scan of the survey area in an hour. During peak season, around 5 watches per day were required to detect annual or between-site trends of 50% in dolphin occurrence in locations where dolphins were sighted reliably (0.1 sightings per hour. Less effort was required at higher sightings rates, and it was not possible to statistically detect trends of <30%. This study highlights the importance of power analysis in designing citizen science programmes and demonstrates their effectiveness in carrying out long term shore-based monitoring of coastal cetacean species, providing a cost-effective early warning system for changes in the marine environment.

  7. A Review of Ten Years of the Study for Monitoring Antimicrobial Resistance Trends (SMART from 2002 to 2011

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Douglas Biedenbach

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Surveillance of antimicrobial agent resistance provides important information to guide microbiologists and infectious disease specialists understanding of the control and the spread of resistance mechanisms within the local environment. Continued monitoring of antimicrobial resistance patterns in the community and in local hospital environments is essential to guide effective empiric therapy. The Study for Monitoring Antimicrobial Resistance Trends (SMART has monitored the in vitro susceptibility patterns of clinical Gram-negative bacilli to antimicrobial agents collected worldwide from intra-abdominal infections since 2002 and urinary tract infections since 2009. Resistance trends, with a particular focus on carbapenem resistance and the rate of extended-spectrum β-lactamases (ESBLs, were analyzed. Isolates from intra-abdominal infections (n = 92,086 and urinary-tract infections (n = 24,705 were collected and tested using Clinical and Laboratory Standards Institute methods. This review presents carbapenem susceptibility and ESBL rates over ten years of SMART study analysis, including key publications during this period. The SMART study has proved to be a valuable resource in determining pathogen prevalence and antibiotic susceptibility over the last ten years and continues to provide evidence for regulatory susceptibility breakpoints and clinical decision making.

  8. Christian identity of secular Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Malešević Miroslava

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The Jyllands-Posten Muhammad cartoons controversy began after twelve editorial cartoons, most of which depicted the Islamic prophet Muhammad, were published in the Danish newspaper Jyllands-Posten on September 30, 2005. The newspaper explained that this publication was a contribution to debate regarding criticism of Islam and self-censorship. In response, Danish Muslim organizations held public protests and spread knowledge of Jyllands-Postens publication. As the controversy grew, some or all of the cartoons were reprinted in newspapers in more than fifty other countries, which led to violent protests, particularly in the Muslim world. Critics of the cartoons describe them as islamophobic and argue that they are blasphemous, intended to humiliate a marginalized Danish minority, and a manifestation of ignorance about the history of western imperialism, from colonialism to the current conflicts in the Middle East. Supporters of the cartoons claim they illustrate an important issue in an age of Islamic extremist terrorism and that their publication is a legitimate exercise of the right of free speech. They also note that similar cartoons about other religions are frequently printed, arguing that the followers of Islam were not targeted in a discriminatory way. The dispute has again pointed out to the relevance of religion and religious differences in the contemporary world. Again, several questions presented themselves as significant: citizen freedom, values and the rights to exercise them, secularism, tolerance, multiculturalism majority-minority relationships and so on. The resolution to these issues appears as of the outmost importance, considering the existing tendencies of united Europe to even more firmly establish cultural, economic, and political associations, in order to launch a one, joined European identity with vanishing national, ethnic and religious differences. Therefore, the question becomes: what could serve as a foundation for

  9. Multiple bars and secular evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Juntai

    2015-03-01

    Bars are the most important driver of secular evolution. A significant fraction of barred galaxies also harbor small secondary bars. Secondary bars are visible even in near-infrared images, so they are not just dusty and blue, but stellar features (Erwin & Sparke 2002). Since they are quite common, secondary bars are probably long-lived stellar features. The random relative orientation of the two bars indicates that they are dynamically decoupled with different pattern speeds (Buta & Crocker 1993). Corsini et al. (2003) presented conclusive direct kinematic evidence for a decoupled secondary bar in NGC 2950. Dynamically decoupled secondary bars have long been hypothesized to be a mechanism to drive gas past the ILR of primary bars to feed active galactic nuclei (Shlosman et al. 1989). However, the dynamics of secondary bars are still not well understood, and it is still unclear what role secondary bars play in the AGN fueling process. Numerical simulations offer the best approach to understanding double-barred systems. Decoupled secondary bar in the earlier gaseous simulations only last a short time (body simulations are preferred to further our understanding of double-barred systems. Debattista & Shen (2007) and Shen & Debattista (2009) managed to form long-lived double-barred systems with purely collisionless simulations, where a pre-existing rotating pseudo-bulge is introduced initially. The shape and size of secondary bars in the models are comparable to observed ones. They found that the rotation of the two bars is not rigid. The amplitude and pattern speed of the secondary bars oscillate as they rotate through their primary counterparts. Although the secondary bar rotates faster than the primary bar in this model, the stellar velocity field in the central region only shows a weakly twisted kinematic minor axis. Recently more simulations of double-barred galaxies with simpler initial conditions are explored (Du, Shen & Debattista 2014). We expect that the new

  10. SECULAR GROWTH AND MATURATION CHANGES IN HUNGARY IN RELATION TO SOCIOECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bodzsar, Eva B; Zsakai, Annamaria; Mascie-Taylor, Nicholas

    2016-03-01

    This paper analyses the secular changes in the body development patterns of Hungarian children between the 1910s and the beginning of the 2000s in relation to socioeconomic and demographic changes in the country. Individual growth data of children were available from two national growth studies (1983-86, 2003-06), while sample-size weighted means of children's body dimensions were collected through regional studies between the 1920s and 1970s. Gross domestic product, Gini index, life expectancy at birth and under-5 mortality rate were used to assess the changes in economic status, income inequalities of the society and the population's general health status, respectively. Secular changes in food consumption habits were also examined. The positive Hungarian secular changes in socioeconomic status were associated with a continuous increase in children's body dimensions. The negative socioeconomic changes reflected only in wartime and post-war periods of children's growth, and the considerable socioeconomic changes at the beginning of the 1990s did not appear to influence the positive trend in children's growth. The positive secular trend in stature and body mass did not level off at the beginning of the 2000s: the socioeconomic conditions that support optimal growth and maturation could improve in Hungary.

  11. Monitoring sea level and sea surface temperature trends from ERS satellites

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Ole Baltazar; Knudsen, Per; Beckley, B.

    2002-01-01

    over this period. In the Indian Ocean and particularly the Pacific Ocean the trends in both sea level and temperature are still dominated by the large changes associated with the El Nino Southern Oscillation. In terms of contribution to the total global sea level change, the contribution of the central...

  12. Summary of preliminary step-trend analysis from the Interagency Whitebark Pine Long-termMonitoring Program—2004-2013

    Science.gov (United States)

    Legg, Kristin; Shanahan, Erin; Daley, Rob; Irvine, Kathryn M.

    2014-01-01

    In mixed and dominant stands, whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) occurs in over two million acres within the six national forests and two national parks that comprise the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE). Currently, whitebark pine, an ecologically important species, is impacted by multiple ecological disturbances; white pine blister rust (Cronartium ribicola), mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae), wildfire, and climate change all pose significant threats to the persistence of whitebark pine populations. Substantial declines in whitebark pine populations have been documented throughout its range.Under the auspices of the Greater Yellowstone Coordinating Committee (GYCC), several agencies began a collaborative, long-term monitoring program to track and document the status of whitebark pine across the GYE. This alliance resulted in the formation of the Greater Yellowstone Whitebark Pine Monitoring Working Group (GYWPMWG), which consists of representatives from the U.S. Forest Service (USFS), National Park Service (NPS), U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), and Montana State University (MSU). This groundbased monitoring program was initiated in 2004 and follows a peer-reviewed protocol (GYWPMWG 2011). The program is led by the Greater Yellowstone Inventory and Monitoring Network (GRYN) of the National Park Service in coordination with multiple agencies. More information about this monitoring effort is available at: http://science. nature.nps.gov/im/units/gryn/monitor/whitebark_pine.cfm. The purpose of this report is to provide a draft summary of the first step-trend analysis for the interagency, long-term monitoring of whitebark pine health to the Interagency Grizzly Bear Study Team (IGBST) as part of a synthesis of the state of whitebark pine in the GYE. Due to the various stages of the analyses and reporting, this is the most efficient way to provide these results to the IGBST.

  13. Mortality and secular trend in the incidence of bipolar disorder

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Medici, Clara Reece; Videbech, Poul; Gustafsson, Lea Nørgreen

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The world-wide interest in bipolar disorder is illustrated by an exponential increase in publications on the disorder registered in Pubmed since 1990. This inspired an investigation of the epidemiology of bipolar disorder. METHODS: This was a register-based cohort study. All first-eve...

  14. Secular trends in seasonal variation in birth weight

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    B. Jensen, Camilla; Gamborg, Michael; Raymond, Kyle

    2015-01-01

    - June) and became the highest from 1964 to 1989. The amplitude of the fall peak started at 25.5 (95%CI 24.6; 25.9) grams and gradually disappeared. The amplitude of the early summer peak gradually arose from nothing to a peak of 18.6 (95%CI 17.7; 19.6) grams in the mid 1980s where it started to decrease...

  15. Secular trends in opioid prescribing in the USA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pezalla, Edmund J; Rosen, David; Erensen, Jennifer G; Haddox, J David; Mayne, Tracy J

    2017-01-01

    Opioid abuse and misuse in the USA is a public health crisis. The use of prescription opioid analgesics increased substantially from 2002 through 2010, then plateaued and began to decrease in 2011. This study examined prescriptions of branded and generic immediate- and extended-release opioid analgesics from 1992 to 2016. This was juxtaposed against state and federal policies designed to decrease overutilization and abuse, as well as the launch of new opioid products, including opioids with abuse-deterrent properties (OADPs). The data indicate that these health policies, including the utilization and reimbursement of OADPs, have coincided with decreased opioid utilization. The hypothesis that OADPs will paradoxically increase opioid prescribing is not supported.

  16. Secular trends in opioid prescribing in the USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pezalla, Edmund J; Rosen, David; Erensen, Jennifer G; Haddox, J David; Mayne, Tracy J

    2017-01-01

    Opioid abuse and misuse in the USA is a public health crisis. The use of prescription opioid analgesics increased substantially from 2002 through 2010, then plateaued and began to decrease in 2011. This study examined prescriptions of branded and generic immediate- and extended-release opioid analgesics from 1992 to 2016. This was juxtaposed against state and federal policies designed to decrease overutilization and abuse, as well as the launch of new opioid products, including opioids with abuse-deterrent properties (OADPs). The data indicate that these health policies, including the utilization and reimbursement of OADPs, have coincided with decreased opioid utilization. The hypothesis that OADPs will paradoxically increase opioid prescribing is not supported. PMID:28243142

  17. Secular trends in physical fitness in Danish adolescents

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Lars Bo; Froberg, K; Kristensen, Peter Lund

    2010-01-01

    of Denmark in 1983, 410 in 1997, and 418 in 2003, the two latter cohorts from the City of Odense. VO(2max) was estimated from maximal power output (MPO) in a cycle test with progressively increasing workload. Estimated VO(2max) for boys and girls was 52 and 41 mL/min/kg, respectively, both in 1983, 1997......, and 2003 with no difference between the three cohorts. However, body mass index (BMI) increased 10% in the upper decentile of the distribution since 1983. MPO decreased over time, but validation studies showed that this was not due to decreased VO(2max). The cohort from 1983 was tested twice by school...

  18. Secular trends in family dinner frequency among adolescents

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Walton, Kathryn; Kleinman, Ken P; Rifas-Shiman, Sheryl L; Horton, Nicholas J; Gillman, Matthew W; Field, Alison E; Austin, S Bryn; Neumark-Sztainer, Dianne; Haines, Jess

    2016-01-01

    Eating meals, particularly dinner, with family members has been found to be associated with improved dietary intake, lower prevalence of disordered eating behaviors, lower levels of substance abuse...

  19. Lack of agreement and trending ability of the endotracheal cardiac output monitor compared with thermodilution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller-Sørensen, H; Hansen, K L; Ostergaard, M

    2012-01-01

    cardiac output (CO) during steady state and with induced haemodynamic changes in patients scheduled for elective cardiac surgery. METHODS: Twenty-five patients were enrolled. After induction of anaesthesia, endotracheal intubation using a dedicated ECOM tube, and insertion of the pulmonary artery catheter......BACKGROUND: Minimally invasive monitoring systems of central haemodynamics are gaining increasing popularity. The present study investigated the precision of the endotracheal cardiac output monitor (ECOM) system and its agreement with pulmonary artery catheter thermodilution (PAC TD) for measuring...

  20. Journeys of a secular organisation in south Lebanon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jason Squire

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available A secular NGO’s experiences in south Lebanon demonstrate that it is possible for non-faith-based organisations to develop productive relationships with faith-based actors without compromising their secular identities.

  1. Current Trends in Neuromuscular Blockade, Management, and Monitoring amongst Singaporean Anaesthetists

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wendy H. Teoh

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction. This survey aimed to investigate the attitudes/practice pertaining the use, management, and monitoring of neuromuscular blockade amongst Singaporean anaesthetists. Methods. All specialist accredited anaesthetists registered with the Singapore Medical Council were invited to complete an anonymous online survey. Results. The response rate was 39.5%. Neuromuscular monitoring (NM was used routinely by only 13.1% despite the widespread availability of monitors. 82% stated residual NMB (RNMB was a significant risk factor for patient outcome, but only 24% believed NMB monitoring should be compulsory in all paralyzed patients. 63.6% of anaesthetists estimated the risk of RNMB in their own institutions to be 50% said such benefits may be able to offset the associated costs. Conclusions. There is a significant need for reeducation about RNMB, studies on local RNMB incidences, and strengthening of current monitoring practices and guidelines. Strategies are discussed. As NM monitors appear widely available and reversal of NMB standard practice, it is hopeful that Singaporean anaesthetists will change and strive for evidence-based best clinical practice to enhance patient safety.

  2. Organic Nitrogen Concentrations and Trends in Urban Stormwater: Implications for Stormwater Monitoring and Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lusk, M. G.; Toor, G.

    2014-12-01

    Organic nitrogen (ON) can be a significant contributor of bioavailable N to the phytoplankton and bacteria that cause eutrophication and harmful algal blooms. In urban systems, urban stormwater runoff containing ON compounds is one source of potentially bioavailable N in water bodies. However, ON characterization and concentrations in urban stormwater are rarely reported or considered for urban stormwater management. We instrumented a 13-hectare residential catchment in Florida's Tampa Bay area with an ISCO autosampler and collected storm event runoff samples at 15-minute intervals during the 2013 wet season (June to September, n =236). Our objectives were to determine the (1) relative importance of ON compared to inorganic N forms (i.e., NO3- and NH4+) in the runoff, (2) investigate temporal trends in the ON concentrations in runoff, and (3) assess how rainfall depth and intensity affect any temporal trends. Mean concentration of total N in stormwater runoff for the wet season was 1.86 mg/l, of which dissolved and particulate ON were 63%. The dominance of ON in urban stormwater runoff suggests that the ON fraction should also be targeted when stormwater control measures call for N reductions. Particulate ON (PON) displayed a strong seasonal first flush trend as season progressed from June (1.45 mg/l; n =75) to September (0.20 mg/l; n = 28), while dissolved ON (DON) did not display any seasonal trend, with mean monthly concentrations ranging from 0.36 to 0.80 mg/l. A principal component analysis using storm event N concentrations, rainfall depth, and rainfall intensity as variables showed no significant correlation, suggesting that storms of various sizes and intensities can mobilize ON. The seasonal first flush observed for PON in the wet season can provide a window of time for optimal N removal and implies that stormwater best management practices should focus on capturing plant materials earlier in the season.

  3. Religious Globalisms in the Post-Secular Age

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wilson, E.K.; B. Steger, Manfred

    2013-01-01

    This article explores the interconnections between mounting global crises and the emergence of the post-secular. Specifically, the article argues that the post-secular is both a description of and a response to shifting global realities in the twenty-first century. It describes the crisis of secular

  4. Religious Globalisms in the Post-Secular Age

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wilson, E.K.; B. Steger, Manfred

    2013-01-01

    This article explores the interconnections between mounting global crises and the emergence of the post-secular. Specifically, the article argues that the post-secular is both a description of and a response to shifting global realities in the twenty-first century. It describes the crisis of secular

  5. Monitoring and Modelling the Trends of Primary and Secondary Air Pollution Precursors: The Case of the State of Kuwait

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. M. Al-Salem

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Since the beginning of the industrial revolution, processes of different scales have contributed greatly to the pollution and waste load on the environment. More specifically, airborne pollutants associated with chemical processes have contributed greatly on the ecosystem and populations health. In this communication, we review recent activities and trends of primary and secondary air pollutants in the state of Kuwait, a country associated with petroleum, petrochemical, and other industrial pollution. Trends of pollutants and impact on human health have been studied and categorized based on recent literature. More attention was paid to areas known to researchers as either precursor sensitive (i.e., nitrogen oxides (NOx, volatile organic compounds (VOCs or adjacent to upstream- or downstream-related activities. Environmental monitoring and modelling techniques relevant to this study are also reviewed. Two case studies that link recent data with models associated with industrial sectors are also demonstrated, focusing mainly on chemical mass balance (CMB and Gaussian line source modelling. It is concluded that a number of the monitoring stations and regulations placed by the Kuwait Environment Public Authority (KUEPA need up-to-date revisions and better network placement, in agreement with previous findings.

  6. Human Values in a Secular World.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Apostol, Robert Z.

    The lectures of five contemporary philosophers, charged with addressing themselves to important moral issues of contemporary society with an eye to highlighting those values that are at the base of human life today, are presented in this volume. Louis Dupre is concerned with the issue of making religion intelligible in Religion in a Secular World.…

  7. Public debt, secular stagnation and functional finance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skott, Peter

    2016-01-01

    Fiscal policy and public debt may be required to maintain full employment and avoid secular stagnation. This conclusion emerges from a range of different models, including OLG specifications and stock-flow consistent (post-) Keynesian models. One of the determinants of the required long-run debt ...

  8. Aggregate demand, functional finance and secular stagnation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skott, Peter

    2016-01-01

    This paper makes three main points. Fiscal policy, first, may be needed in the long run to maintain full employment and avoid secular stagnation. If fiscal policy is used in this way, second, the long-run debt ratio depends (i) inversely on the rate of growth, (ii) inversely on government consump...

  9. [Secularism in hospital, between rights and obligations].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bui-Xuan, Olivia

    2016-10-01

    Public hospitals are subject to specific regulations with regard to secularism, which must respect the nursing staff as well as the patients. The relevant legislation attempts to find a balance between freedom of belief and religious expression on the one hand, and the smooth running of the public hospital service on the other. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  10. Religion, Education, and Secularism in International Agencies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stambach, Amy; Marshall, Katherine; Nelson, Matthew J.; Andreescu, Liviu; Kwayu, Aikande C.; Wexler, Philip; Hotam, Yotam; Fischer, Shlomo; El Bilawi, Hassan

    2011-01-01

    During the interwar years of the early twentieth century, and through at least the 1980s, education was seen by scholars, state leaders, and international agency representatives alike as a way to modernize and secularize underdeveloped communities. Arguments about the modernizing power of education did not erase or discount the presence of…

  11. Aggregate demand, functional finance and secular stagnation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skott, Peter

    2016-01-01

    This paper makes three main points. Fiscal policy, first, may be needed in the long run to maintain full employment and avoid secular stagnation. If fiscal policy is used in this way, second, the long-run debt ratio depends (i) inversely on the rate of growth, (ii) inversely on government...

  12. The sacred, the secular, and the profane

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tsinovoi, Alexei

    2017-01-01

    In security studies, the dichotomy between ‘security’ and ‘regular’ politics has been effectively challenged in recent years, both theoretically and empirically. To address this challenge, the article develops Giorgio Agamben’s concepts of the sacred, the profane and the secular into three ideal ...

  13. Real Time On-line Space Research Laboratory Environment Monitoring with Off-line Trend and Prediction Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jules, Kenol; Lin, Paul P.

    2006-01-01

    their g-level contribution to the environment. The system can detect both known and unknown vibratory disturbance activities. It can also perform trend analysis and prediction by analyzing past data over many Increments of the space station for selected disturbance activities. This feature can be used to monitor the health of onboard mechanical systems to detect and prevent potential system failure as well as for use by research scientists during their science results analysis. Examples of both real time on-line vibratory disturbance detection and off-line trend analysis are presented in this paper. Several soft computing techniques such as Kohonen s Self-Organizing Feature Map, Learning Vector Quantization, Back-Propagation Neural Networks, and Fuzzy Logic were used to design the system.

  14. The church and the secular: The effect of the post-secular on Christianity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jaco Beyers

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Paradigms determine relationships. During the Enlightenment period Emile Durkheim proposed a relationship between the sacred and the profane. Religion, which is concerned with the sacred, was defined in terms of being different from the profane. The profane came to denote the secular. The organic character of religion caused some scholars to predict the end of the church at the hand of modernisation and rationalisation. Some scholars instead envisaged a new form and function of the church. Some scholars anticipated the growth of Christianity. Reality shows that Christianity has not died out but seems to be growing. The new era we are currently in (identified as the postmodern has been described as the post-secular age where a process of re-sacralisation takes place. How will the post-secular influence the church? What will the relationship between the church and the secular be like under a new paradigm? This article suggests that within a postmodern paradigm, the post-secular will emphasise the place of the individual in the church. Fragmentation of society will also be the result of the post-secular. Religiosity in future will have to contend with fundamentalism and civil religion.

  15. Prediction of secular acceleration of axial rotation of Mars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barkin, Yu. V.

    2009-04-01

    of daily rotation of the Earth essentially surpasses non-tidal acceleration (35 %) which as shown the author is caused by the directed redistribution of fluid masses of the Earth, in turn caused by polar drift of the centre of mass of the liquid core of the Earth to the north [1]. In case of Mars the opposite picture is expected. It is quite possible, as show the executed estimations, that tidal deceleration of axial rotation of Mars much less than its positive acceleration caused by global dynamics of shells (the core and mantle). And it means, that as against the Earth in axial rotation of Mars in the present epoch an acceleration, instead of deceleration of rotation should be observed. References [1] Barkin Yu.V. (2001) Explanation and prediction of the secular variations of the Earth rotation, geopotential, force of gravity and geocenter drift. Proceedings of International Conference «AstroKazan-2001». Astronomy and geodesy in new millennium (24-29 September 2001), Kazan State University: Publisher «DAS», pp. 73-79. [2] Barkin Yu.V. (2007) To an explanation of non-tidal acceleration of the Earth diurnal rotation and secular trend of its pole. Proceedings of IUGG XXIV General Assembly, Perugia, Italy 2007: Earth: Our Changing Planet (Perugia, Italy, July 2-13, 2007), (G) - IAG, GS003, p. 3799. www. iugg2007perugia.it. [3] Barkin Yu.V. (2007) Celestial geodynamics and solution of the fundamental problems of geodesy, gravimetry and geophysics. Proceedings of IUGG XXIV General Assembly, Perugia, Italy 2007: Earth: Our Changing Planet (Perugia, Italy, July 2-13, 2007), (S) - IASPEI, JSS011, p. 2149. www. iugg2007perugia.it. [4] Barkin Yu.V. (2002) Explanation of endogenous activity of planets and satellites and its cyclicity. Izvestia cekzii nauk o Zemle. Rus. Acad. of Nat. Sciences, Issue 9, December 2002, M.: VINITI, pp. 45-97. In Russian.

  16. Northern fulmars as biological monitors of trends of plastic pollution in the eastern North Pacific.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Avery-Gomm, Stephanie; O'Hara, Patrick D; Kleine, Lydia; Bowes, Victoria; Wilson, Laurie K; Barry, Karen L

    2012-09-01

    Marine plastic debris is a global issue, which highlights the need for internationally standardized methods of monitoring plastic pollution. The stomach contents of beached northern fulmar (Fulmarus glacialis) have proven a cost-effective biomonitor in Europe. However, recent information on northern fulmar plastic ingestion is lacking in the North Pacific. We quantified the stomach contents of 67 fulmars from beaches in the eastern North Pacific in 2009-2010 and found that 92.5% of fulmars had ingested an average of 36.8 pieces, or 0.385 g of plastic. Plastic ingestion in these fulmars is among the highest recorded globally. Compared to earlier studies in the North Pacific, our findings indicate an increase in plastic ingestion over the past 40 years. This study substantiates the use of northern fulmar as biomonitors of plastic pollution in the North Pacific and suggests that the high levels of plastic pollution in this region warrant further monitoring.

  17. Non-Invasive Glucose Monitoring Techniques: A review and current trends

    CERN Document Server

    Poddar, Raju; Shukla, Pratyoosh; Sen, Pratima

    2008-01-01

    Diabetes mellitus is a complex group of syndromes that have in common a disturbance in the body's use of glucose, resulting in an elevated blood sugar. Once detected, sugar diabetes can be controlled by an appropriate regimen that should include diet therapy, a weight reduction program for those persons who are overweight, a program of exercise and insulin injections or oral drugs to lower blood glucose. Blood glucose monitoring by the patient and the physician is an important aspect in the control of the devastating complications (heart disease, blindness, kidney failure or amputations) due to the disease. Intensive therapy and frequent glucose testing has numerous benefits. With ever improving advances in diagnostic technology, the race for the next generation of bloodless, painless, accurate glucose instruments has begun. In this paper, we reviewed various methods, techniques and approaches successfully demonstrated for measuring or monitoring blood glucose. Invasive, minimally invasive and noninvasive tec...

  18. Data mining for wearable sensors in health monitoring systems: a review of recent trends and challenges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banaee, Hadi; Ahmed, Mobyen Uddin; Loutfi, Amy

    2013-12-17

    The past few years have witnessed an increase in the development of wearable sensors for health monitoring systems. This increase has been due to several factors such as development in sensor technology as well as directed efforts on political and stakeholder levels to promote projects which address the need for providing new methods for care given increasing challenges with an aging population. An important aspect of study in such system is how the data is treated and processed. This paper provides a recent review of the latest methods and algorithms used to analyze data from wearable sensors used for physiological monitoring of vital signs in healthcare services. In particular, the paper outlines the more common data mining tasks that have been applied such as anomaly detection, prediction and decision making when considering in particular continuous time series measurements. Moreover, the paper further details the suitability of particular data mining and machine learning methods used to process the physiological data and provides an overview of the properties of the data sets used in experimental validation. Finally, based on this literature review, a number of key challenges have been outlined for data mining methods in health monitoring systems.

  19. Data Mining for Wearable Sensors in Health Monitoring Systems: A Review of Recent Trends and Challenges

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hadi Banaee

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The past few years have witnessed an increase in the development of wearable sensors for health monitoring systems. This increase has been due to several factors such as development in sensor technology as well as directed efforts on political and stakeholder levels to promote projects which address the need for providing new methods for care given increasing challenges with an aging population. An important aspect of study in such system is how the data is treated and processed. This paper provides a recent review of the latest methods and algorithms used to analyze data from wearable sensors used for physiological monitoring of vital signs in healthcare services. In particular, the paper outlines the more common data mining tasks that have been applied such as anomaly detection, prediction and decision making when considering in particular continuous time series measurements. Moreover, the paper further details the suitability of particular data mining and machine learning methods used to process the physiological data and provides an overview of the properties of the data sets used in experimental validation. Finally, based on this literature review, a number of key challenges have been outlined for data mining methods in health monitoring systems.

  20. Data Mining for Wearable Sensors in Health Monitoring Systems: A Review of Recent Trends and Challenges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banaee, Hadi; Ahmed, Mobyen Uddin; Loutfi, Amy

    2013-01-01

    The past few years have witnessed an increase in the development of wearable sensors for health monitoring systems. This increase has been due to several factors such as development in sensor technology as well as directed efforts on political and stakeholder levels to promote projects which address the need for providing new methods for care given increasing challenges with an aging population. An important aspect of study in such system is how the data is treated and processed. This paper provides a recent review of the latest methods and algorithms used to analyze data from wearable sensors used for physiological monitoring of vital signs in healthcare services. In particular, the paper outlines the more common data mining tasks that have been applied such as anomaly detection, prediction and decision making when considering in particular continuous time series measurements. Moreover, the paper further details the suitability of particular data mining and machine learning methods used to process the physiological data and provides an overview of the properties of the data sets used in experimental validation. Finally, based on this literature review, a number of key challenges have been outlined for data mining methods in health monitoring systems. PMID:24351646

  1. Body image and eating behaviors in Orthodox and Secular Jewish women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gluck, Marci E; Geliebter, Allan

    2002-01-01

    To explore the impact of religion on the development of disturbances in body image and eating behaviors. 78 Orthodox Jewish women were compared with 48 secular Jewish women. Participants completed the Body Shape Questionnaire (BSQ), the Eating Disorder Examination-Questionnaire Version (EDE-Q), and the Figure Rating Scale (FRS). Despite a similar body mass index of 22.2 +/- 2.8 SDs, the secular women scored significantly higher on the BSQ (P = .005) and the EDE-Q (P = .004) than the Orthodox women. The secular women also had greater eating disorder symptomatology: more laxative use (P = .02) and a trend toward more vomiting (P = .06) and diuretic use (P = .06), although not more binge eating. They were twice as likely to have a fear of becoming fat (P = .05) and were four times as likely to be influenced by their shape and weight (P = .001). Also, despite increased media exposure, the secular group chose an ideal body size on the FRS similar to that of the Orthodox group, suggesting that their greater body dissatisfaction on the BSQ was related, instead, to greater cultural pressure for thinness (P = .007) and more shame about appearance (P = .04). Our findings show that membership in a strict, insulated religious group such as Orthodox Judaism may protect women, to some extent, from developing body dissatisfaction and eating pathology.

  2. Psychostimulant prescribing trends in a paediatric population in Ireland: a national cohort study

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Boland, Fiona; Galvin, Rose; Reulbach, Udo; Motterlini, Nicola; Kelly, Dervla; Bennett, Kathleen; Fahey, Tom

    2015-01-01

    Psychotropic paediatric prescribing trends are increasing internationally. The aim of this study is to examine the prevalence and secular trends in psychotropic prescribing in Irish children and adolescents between 2002 and 2011...

  3. MONITORING AND MODELING OF THE MAIN TRENDS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCIENTIFIC ACTIVITY IN RUSSIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marina U. Archipova

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This article is devoted to monitoring of the scientific sphere in Russia in comparison to thedeveloped countries. Attention is paid especially to analysis of interrelation between scientifi c researches costs and the results of scientifi c activity,as well as to the modeling of innovative activityin Russia on the based on the systems of therecursive simultaneous equations. The conductedresearch allows to follow the diffusion of scientific knowledge and their influence on innovative activity in the country.

  4. Orbital monitoring of the Brazilian pasturelands: patterns, trends and potential ecosystem services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferreira, L. G.; Parente, L. L.; Arantes, A. E.; Araujo, F. M.; Brito, J. S.; Nogueira, S.; Faria, A. S.; Santos, A.; Ferreira, M. E.; Silva, J. R.; Rufino, L., Jr.; Vieira, P.; Silva, W. C.; Stefani, F.; Veloso, G.; Nogueira, L.; Aguado, O. O.

    2015-12-01

    In Brazil, where cultivated pastures constitute the dominant land use form, cattle ranching intensification plays a major role towards more environmentally sustainable agricultural practices, through its potential for mitigating GHG emissions, as well as by making available cost-effective land reserve for other uses. However, environmentally sustainable livestock intensification, one of the key goals pursued by Plano ABC (the federal government low carbon agriculture plan), strongly depends on our ability to more precisely identify pasture conditions, improvement needs, and the respective cattle support capacities. To this end, and with the support of the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation, we have concentrated efforts in order to have: 1) a more detailed and updated map of the brazilian pasturelands; 2) a thorough biophysical differentiation of these pastures according to degradation stages / forage levels; and 3) an estimation of overall pasture productivity trends. Our initial estimates, based on the interpretation of satellite and census data, suggest that as much as 50% of the total grazing area in Brazil (about 170 Mhectares) are moderately or severely affected by soil-plant degradation. On the other hand, our preliminary results also corroborate the enormous potential of well managed pastures to positively impact carbon and water fluxes. Based on satellite data and pasture samples from large and productive cattle ranch operations in the central savanna biome in Brazil (Cerrado), we estimated total growing season (October to April) biomass and evapotranspiration to correspond to 9 Gt of carbon and 420 Gt of water, respectively.

  5. Secular and tidal evolution of circumbinary systems

    CERN Document Server

    Correia, Alexandre C M; Laskar, Jacques

    2016-01-01

    We investigate the secular dynamics of three-body circumbinary systems under the effect of tides. We use the octupolar non-restricted approximation for the orbital interactions, general relativity corrections, the quadrupolar approximation for the spins, and the viscous linear model for tides. We derive the averaged equations of motion in a simplified vectorial formalism, which is suitable to model the long-term evolution of a wide variety of circumbinary systems in very eccentric and inclined orbits. In particular, this vectorial approach can be used to derive constraints for tidal migration, capture in Cassini states, and stellar spin-orbit misalignment. We show that circumbinary planets with initial arbitrary orbital inclination can become coplanar through a secular resonance between the precession of the orbit and the precession of the spin of one of the stars. We also show that circumbinary systems for which the pericenter of the inner orbit is initially in libration present chaotic motion for the spins ...

  6. Secular Evolution of Hierarchical Triple Star Systems

    CERN Document Server

    Ford, E B; Kozinsky, B

    1999-01-01

    We derive octupole-level secular perturbation equations for hierarchical triple systems, using classical Hamiltonian perturbation techniques. Our equations describe the secular evolution of the orbital eccentricities and inclinations over timescales long compared to the orbital periods. By extending previous work done to leading (quadrupole) order to octupole level (i.e., including terms of order $\\alpha^3$, where $\\alpha\\equiv a_1/a_2<1$ is the ratio of semimajor axes) we obtain expressions that are applicable to a much wider range of parameters. For triple systems containing a close inner binary, we also discuss the possible interaction between the classical Newtonian perturbations and the general relativistic precession of the inner orbit. In some cases we show that this interaction can lead to resonances and a significant increase in the maximum amplitude of eccentricity perturbations. We establish the validity of our analytic expressions by providing detailed comparisons with the results of direct num...

  7. Science education in a secular age

    Science.gov (United States)

    Long, David E.

    2013-03-01

    A college science education instructor tells his students he rejects evolution. What should we think? The scene unfolds in one of the largest urban centers in the world. If we are surprised, why? Expanding on Federica Raia's (2012) first-hand experience with this scenario, I broaden her discussion by considering the complexity of science education in a secular age. Enjoining Raia within the framework of Charles Taylor's A Secular Age, I task the science education community to consider the broad strokes of science, religious faith, and the complexity of modernity in its evolving, hybridized forms. Building upon anthropological approaches to science education research, I articulate a framework to more fully account for who, globally, is a Creationist, and what this means for our views of ethically responsive science education.

  8. Monitoring trends in civil engineering and their effect on indoor radon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ringer, W

    2014-07-01

    In this paper, the importance of monitoring new building concepts is discussed. The effect of energy-efficient construction technologies on indoor radon is presented in more detail. Comparing the radon levels of about 100 low-energy and passive houses in Austria with radon levels in conventional new houses show that, in energy-efficient new houses, the radon level is about one-third lower than in conventional new houses. Nevertheless, certain features or bad practice may cause high radon levels in energy-efficient new houses. Recommendations to avoid adverse effects were set up. Furthermore, the paper deals with the effect of thermal retrofitting on indoor radon. Results from a Swiss study where 163 dwellings were measured before and after thermal retrofit yield an increase of the radon level of 26% in average. Among the various retrofit measures, replacing windows has the greatest impact on the indoor radon level.

  9. Recent trends in SELEX technique and its application to food safety monitoring.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Jingjing; Zhu, Yingyue; Xue, Feng; Mei, Zhanlong; Yao, Li; Wang, Xin; Zheng, Lei; Liu, Jian; Liu, Guodong; Peng, Chifang; Chen, Wei

    2014-04-01

    The method referred to as "systemic evolution of ligands by exponential enrichment" (SELEX) was introduced in 1990 and ever since has become an important tool for the identification and screening of aptamers. Such nucleic acids can recognize and bind to their corresponding targets (analytes) with high selectivity and affinity, and aptamers therefore have become attractive alternatives to traditional antibodies not the least because they are much more stable. Meanwhile, they have found numerous applications in different fields including food quality and safety monitoring. This review first gives an introduction into the selection process and to the evolution of SELEX, then covers applications of aptamers in the surveillance of food safety (with subsections on absorptiometric, electrochemical, fluorescent and other methods), and then gives conclusions and perspectives. The SELEX method excels by its features of in vitro, high throughput and ease of operation. This review contains 86 references.

  10. Monitoring in the Western Pacific region shows evidence of seagrass decline in line with global trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Short, Frederick T; Coles, Robert; Fortes, Miguel D; Victor, Steven; Salik, Maxwell; Isnain, Irwan; Andrew, Jay; Seno, Aganto

    2014-06-30

    Seagrass systems of the Western Pacific region are biodiverse habitats, providing vital services to ecosystems and humans over a vast geographic range. SeagrassNet is a worldwide monitoring program that collects data on seagrass habitats, including the ten locations across the Western Pacific reported here where change at various scales was rapidly detected. Three sites remote from human influence were stable. Seagrasses declined largely due to increased nutrient loading (4 sites) and increased sedimentation (3 sites), the two most common stressors of seagrass worldwide. Two sites experienced near-total loss from of excess sedimentation, followed by partial recovery once sedimentation was reduced. Species shifts were observed at every site with recovering sites colonized by pioneer species. Regulation of watersheds is essential if marine protected areas are to preserve seagrass meadows. Seagrasses in the Western Pacific experience stress due to human impacts despite the vastness of the ocean area and low development pressures.

  11. Northeast regional and state trends in anuran occupancy from calling survey data (2001-2011) from the North American Amphibian Monitoring Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weir, Linda A.; Royle, Andy; Gazenski, Kimberly D.; Villena Carpio, Oswaldo

    2014-01-01

    We present the first regional trends in anuran occupancy from North American Amphibian Monitoring Program (NAAMP) data from 11 northeastern states using an 11 years of data. NAAMP is a long-term monitoring program where observers collect data at assigned random roadside routes using a calling survey technique. We assessed occupancy trends for 17 species. Eight species had statistically significant regional trends, of these seven were negative (Anaxyrus fowleri, Acris crepitans, Pseudacris brachyphona, Pseudacris feriarum-kalmi complex, Lithobates palustris, Lithobates pipiens, and Lithobates sphenocephalus) and one was positive (Hyla versicolor-chrysoscelis complex). We also assessed state level trends for 101 species/state combinations, of these 29 showed a significant decline and nine showed a significant increase in occupancy.

  12. Political Economy of Secularism: Rediscovery of India

    OpenAIRE

    Tyabji, Nasir

    1994-01-01

    As it was in Europe, secularism in India is an intrinsic part of the process of the emergence of a modern identity of the people of a multi-language and multi-ethnic society, the necessity for which is being continuously generated by industrialisation and urbanisation.The emergence of this identity, however, has been hampered by the failure at the political level: the inability to evolve political units appropriate for the expression of regional aspirations, to entrench and extend the process...

  13. Mercury's resonant rotation from secular orbital elements

    OpenAIRE

    Stark, Alexander; Oberst, Jürgen; Hussmann, Hauke

    2015-01-01

    We used recently produced Solar System ephemerides, which incorporate 2 years of ranging observations to the MESSENGER spacecraft, to extract the secular orbital elements for Mercury and associated uncertainties. As Mercury is in a stable 3:2 spin-orbit resonance, these values constitute an important reference for the planet’s measured rotational parameters, which in turn strongly bear on physical interpretation of Mercury’s interior structure. In particular, we derive a mean orbital period o...

  14. Hawking radiation and secularly growing loop corrections

    CERN Document Server

    Akhmedov, Emil T; Popov, Fedor K

    2016-01-01

    We study the expectation value of the energy momentum tensor during thin shell collapse for a massive, real, scalar field theory. At tree-level, we find thermal, Hawking-type, behaviour for the energy flux. Using the Schwinger-Keldysh technique, we calculate two-loop corrections to the tree-level correlation functions and show that they exhibit secular growth, suggesting the breakdown of the perturbation theory.

  15. Fuzzy Law and the Boundaries of Secularism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W Menski

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available The author delivered a speech at a Religare Conference. Showing his distaste for fuzzy law, he argues that "moderate secularism" is not merely another fuzzy concept, but it is "super-fuzzy", and that lawyers claiming to love certainty "have a tendency to sit in judgment over matters and even pre-judge things they know little about, including legal pluralism" leading to much irritation.

  16. Atlas of Secular Light Curves of Comets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferrin, Ignacio

    2007-12-01

    We have completed work on the secular light curves of 30 periodic and non-periodic comets. The objectives and approach of this project has been explained in Ferrin (Icarus, 178, 493-516, 2005). Each comet requires 2 plots. The time plot shows the reduced (to Δ = 1 AU) magnitude of the comet as a function of time, thus displaying the brightness history of the object. The log plot is a reflected double log plot. The reflection takes place at R=1 AU, to allow the determination of the absolute magnitude by extrapolation. 22 photometric parameters are measured from the plots, most of them new. The plots have been collected in a document that constitutes "The Atlas". We have defined a photometric age, P-AGE, that attempts to measure the age of a comet based on its activity. P-AGE has been scaled to human ages to help in its interpretation. We find that comets Hale-Bopp and 29P/SW 1, are baby comets (P-AGE 100 cy). The secular light curve of 9P/Tempel 1 exhibits sublimation due to H2O and due to CO. Comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimento to be visited by the Rossetta spacecraft in 2014 exhibits a photometric anomaly. Comet 65P/Gunn exhibits a lag in maximum brightness of LAG = + 254 days after perihelion. We suggest that the pole is pointing to the sun at that time. The secular light curves will be presented and a preliminary interpretation will be advanced. The secular light curves present complexity beyond current understanding. The observations described in this work were carried out at the National Observatory of Venezuela (ONV), managed by the Center for Research in Astronomy (CIDA), for the Ministry of Science and Technology (MinCyT).

  17. Geographical localisation of the geomagnetic secular variation

    OpenAIRE

    Aubert, Julien; Finlay, Chris; Olsen, Nils

    2013-01-01

    Directly observed changes in Earth’s magnetic field occur most prominently at low latitudes beneath the Atlantic hemisphere, while the Pacific is comparatively quiet. This striking hemispheric asymmetry in geomagnetic secular variation is a consequence of the geographical localisation of intense, westward moving, magnetic flux patches at the core surface. Despite its successes in explaining the main morphological properties of Earth’s magnetic field, self-consistent numerical modelling of the...

  18. Galaxy Zoo: Observing Secular Evolution Through Bars

    CERN Document Server

    Cheung, Edmond; Masters, Karen L; Nichol, Robert C; Bosma, A; Bell, Eric F; Faber, S M; Koo, David C; Lintott, Chris; Melvin, Thomas; Schawinski, Kevin; Skibba, Ramin A; Willett, Kyle W

    2013-01-01

    Observations have shown that there is a connection between the presence of a bar and the properties of a galaxy. In a parallel effort, simulations have shown that this connection is consistent with the theory of bar-driven secular evolution. But observational evidence of bar-driven secular evolution has been sparse. In this paper, we use the Galaxy Zoo 2 dataset to look for evidence of this secular evolution. Our sample consists of 13,295 disk galaxies, with an overall bar fraction of 23.6 +/- 0.4%, of which 1,154 barred galaxies also have bar length measurements. These samples are the largest ever used to study the role of bars in disk galaxy evolution. We characterize bars by the bar likelihood, the likelihood a bar is present in a given galaxy, and the bar length. These two bar properties show interesting correlations with the specific star formation rate and the inner central structure of galaxies. Comparing these observations to state-of-the-art simulations of bar evolution, which include live halos and ...

  19. Kosovar Society through Secularism and Religion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MSc. Dritero Arifi

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper will analyze the importance and the effects of religion, in Kosovar society. A great part of the paper, will analyze the social and the political relations in Post-War Kosovo. Initially it will elaborate religion and secularism, especially in theoreticall aspect, what impact have these definitions in modern societies. In order to explain what the importance of the religion in Kosovo is, we will focus on analyzing ethnical, social and political relations within Kosovo society. A considerable component of the paper is also, the elaboration of secularism in Kosovo conditions. This implies that the formulation of the problem and the objective of this research, are the substance of the paper’s theme, which is, religion in Kosovo; its definition and the outlook of the Kosovar society on religion. Is Kosovo post-war society more or less religious? That means the elements of Religions and Secularism will be part of the analysis of developments in post-war Kosovo.

  20. Asteroid secular dynamics: Ceres' fingerprint identified

    CERN Document Server

    Novaković, Bojan; Tsirvoulis, Georgios; Knezević, Zoran

    2015-01-01

    Here we report on the significant role of a so far overlooked dynamical aspect, namely a secular resonance between the dwarf planet Ceres and other asteroids. We demonstrate that this type of secular resonance can be the dominant dynamical factor in certain regions of the main asteroid belt. Specifically, we performed a dynamical analysis of the asteroids belonging to the (1726) Hoffmeister family. To identify which dynamical mechanisms are actually at work in this part of the main asteroid belt, i.e. to isolate the main perturber(s), we study the evolution of this family in time. The study is accomplished using numerical integrations of test particles performed within different dynamical models. The obtained results reveal that the post-impact evolution of the Hoffmeister asteroid family is a direct consequence of the nodal secular resonance with Ceres. This leads us to the conclusion that similar effects must exist in other parts of the asteroid belt. In this respect, the obtained results shed light on an i...

  1. Seasonal trends of spectral indexes for monitoring GPP in a Mediterranean cork oak savanna

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cerasoli, S.; Silva, J. M. N.; Carvalhais, N.; Silva, F.; López, G.; Pereira, J. M. C.; Pereira, J. S.

    2012-04-01

    It is nowadays clear that the inclusion of spectral indexes into biogeochemical models can greatly improve actual estimates of gross primary productivity (GPP) at local and global scale. Several vegetation indexes can be obtained by the reflectance of light at specific wavelengths. Among them, the Normalized Vegetation Index (NDVI), the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) and the Photochemical Reflectance Index (PRI) were found suitable to represent different characteristics of ecosystems strictly related with GPP, such as biomass and photosynthetic capacity (NDVI, EVI) or radiation use efficiency (PRI). In Mediterranean cork oak savannas, characterized by high heterogeneity, the application of spectral indexes derived from coarse spatial resolution remotely sensed data (e.g. MODIS imagery) to represent the performance of the whole ecosystem is complex. A better knowledge of the variability of vegetation indexes for specific vegetation types, assessed in fieldwork, is fundamental to the interpretation of the same indexes obtained with satellite data and a key step through the integration of such indexes into biogeochemical models. We consider three different vegetation types: trees, grasses and shrubs, concurring to the overall ecosystem carbon budget in Mediterranean cork oak savannas. Since April 2011, reflectance measurements were performed in the range of 300-2500nm by the use of a handheld hyperspectral spectroradiometer (FieldSpec3, ASD Inc. CO, USA) in several species of the three vegetation types in a cork oak savanna eddy covariance site located in central Portugal. Measurements were always performed around solar noon and repeated approximately every two weeks. Several vegetation indexes were calculated. All indexes showed clear differences among vegetation types and among species. Marked seasonal trends were identified for grasses and shrubs, clearly related with the onset of dry summer conditions. Both NDVI and EVI decreased in grasses from April to the

  2. Benchmarking of hospital information systems: Monitoring of discharge letters and scheduling can reveal heterogeneities and time trends

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eckholt Markus

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Monitoring of hospital information system (HIS usage can provide insights into best practices within a hospital and help to assess time trends. In terms of effort and cost of benchmarking, figures derived automatically from the routine HIS system are preferable to manual methods like surveys, in particular for repeated analysis. Methods Due to relevance for quality management and efficient resource utilization we focused on time-to-completion of discharge letters (assessed by CT-plots and usage of patient scheduling. We analyzed these parameters monthly during one year at a major university hospital in Germany. Results We found several distinct patterns of discharge letter documentation indicating a large heterogeneity of HIS usage between different specialties (completeness 51 – 99%, delays 0 – 90 days. Overall usage of scheduling increased during the observation period by 62%, but again showed a considerable variation between departments. Conclusion Regular monitoring of HIS key figures can contribute to a continuous HIS improvement process.

  3. Research on meaning-making and health in secular society: Secular, spiritual and religious existential orientations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hvidt, Niels Christian; La Cour, Peter

    2010-01-01

    This article proposes a framework of concepts for the field of existential meaning-making in secular cultures such as those of Northern Europe. Seeking an operational approach, we have narrowed the field’s components down to a number of basic domains and dimensions that provide a more authentic...... cultural basis for research in secular society. Reviewing the literature, three main domains of existential meaning-making emerge: Secular, spiritual, and religious. In reconfirming these three domains, we propose to couple them with the three dimensions of cognition (knowing), practice (doing......), and importance (being), resulting in a conceptual framework that can serve as a fundamental heuristic and methodological research tool for mapping the field of existential meaning-making and health. The proposed grid might contribute to clearer understanding of the multidimensional nature of existential meaning...

  4. Research on meaning-making and health in secular society: secular, spiritual and religious existential orientations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    la Cour, Peter; Hvidt, Niels C

    2010-10-01

    This article proposes a framework of concepts for the field of existential meaning-making in secular cultures such as those of Northern Europe. Seeking an operational approach, we have narrowed the field's components down to a number of basic domains and dimensions that provide a more authentic cultural basis for research in secular society. Reviewing the literature, three main domains of existential meaning-making emerge: Secular, spiritual, and religious. In reconfirming these three domains, we propose to couple them with the three dimensions of cognition (knowing), practice (doing), and importance (being), resulting in a conceptual framework that can serve as a fundamental heuristic and methodological research tool for mapping the field of existential meaning-making and health. The proposed grid might contribute to clearer understanding of the multidimensional nature of existential meaning-making and as a guide for posing adequate research and clinical questions in the field.

  5. Southeast regional and state trends in anuran occupancy from calling survey data (2001-2013) from the North American Amphibian Monitoring Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villena Carpio, Oswaldo; Royle, J. Andrew; Weir, Linda; Foreman, Tasha M.; Gazenski, Kimberly D.; Campbell Grant, Evan H.

    2016-01-01

    We present the first regional trends in anuran occupancy for eight states of the southeastern United States, based on 13 y (2001–2013) of North American Amphibian Monitoring Program (NAAMP) data. The NAAMP is a longterm monitoring program in which observers collect anuran calling observation data at fixed locations along random roadside routes. We assessed occupancy trends for 14 species. We found weak evidence for a general regional pattern of decline in calling anurans within breeding habitats along roads in the southeastern USA over the last 13 y. Two species had positive regional trends with 95% posterior intervals that did not include zero (Hyla cinerea and Pseudacris crucifer). Five other species also showed an increasing trend, while eight species showed a declining trend, although 95% posterior intervals included zero. We also assessed state level trends for 107 species/state combinations. Of these, 14 showed a significant decline and 12 showed a significant increase in occupancy (i.e., credible intervals did not include zero for these 26 trends).

  6. Monitoring trends of urban development and environmental impact of Beijing, 1999-2006.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Gengyuan; Yang, Zhifeng; Chen, Bin; Ulgiati, Sergio

    2011-08-15

    The high rates of environmental change and accelerated species loss in the urban development process should be quantified to rebalance the social and environmental dimensions of sustainability. In this study, an emergy-based environmental impact assessment model is designed according to the framework of the Eco-Indicator 99 for monitoring the negative effects on human well-being and ecosystem integrity in the urban development system of Beijing from 1999 to 2006. The environmental impact assessment model is based on the sustainability promotion perspective, and emphasizes the determinants of human health and ecosystem integrity in the urban development process. It is vital that the links among human health, ecosystem integrity and urban sustainability are therefore considered especially from the perspective of a supply-side environmental cost evaluation (including ecological service supply, ecological and economic losses and investment for treatment). Results suggest that: (1) out of all the pollutants, ecological services were mainly used to dilute sulfur dioxide and NH(3)-N; (2) nitrogen dioxide and greenhouse gases released by the urban system contribute heavily to both ecological and economic losses evaluated in emergy terms; and (3) emissions impact, mainly from airborne pollutants, with small contribution from waterborne emissions, generally increases from 1999 to 2006, undermining the sustainability of Beijing. The emergy synthesis proves to be very appropriate to account for large-scale and indirect costs generated by pollution as side effects of economic activity. Such knowledge is a necessary pre-requisite to perform a reliable cost-benefit evaluation of urban sustainability strategies, and provide guidance for policy decision making to maximize benefits and minimize negative impacts.

  7. Trends in dental caries among Brazilian schoolchildren: 40 years of monitoring (1971-2011).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Constante, Helena Mendes; Souza, Marina Leite; Bastos, João Luiz; Peres, Marco Aurélio

    2014-08-01

    The study aimed to estimate the prevalence, severity, and inequality in the distribution of dental caries in schoolchildren from Florianópolis, Santa Catarina, Brazil, in 2011, and to compare the results with data from previous studies carried out since 1971. All 12- and 13-year-old schoolchildren enrolled in a public school were eligible. Dental caries were assessed according to the World Health Organisation diagnostic criteria. Decayed, missing and filled surfaces and teeth (DMFS/DMFT) indexes, the Significant Caries Index (SiC) and the Gini coefficient (to assess inequalities in the distribution of dental caries) were estimated. The response rate was 82.3% (n = 130). The prevalence of dental caries decreased from 98.0% (95% CI 96.0-100.0) in 1971 to 36.9% (95% CI 28.5-45.3) in 2011. The mean DMFT ranged from 9.2 in 1971 to 0.7 in 2011. The mean DMFS index was 1.2 (95% CI 0.8-1.6) in 2011. The Gini coefficient was 0.624 in 2002 but increased to 0.725 in 2011; the Lorenz curve showed that 70-75% of dental caries attacks was restricted to 20% of the population in 2011. A reduction of 41.2% in the mean SiC index was observed between 2002 (3.4, 95% CI 3.0-3.8) and 2011 (1.9, 95% CI 1.6-2.1). An effective decline in the prevalence and severity of dental caries in schoolchildren was observed throughout 40 years of monitoring. However, a small proportion of the population has experienced most of the caries burden in the recent years studied.

  8. Secular Changes of Stature in Rural Children and Adolescents in China, 1985-2010

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    CHEN Tian Jiao; JI Cheng Ye

    2014-01-01

    Objective To analyze and assess secular change in stature in rural children and adolescents in China from 1985 to 2010. Methods Data were obtained from the 6 rounds of the Chinese National Survey on Student’s Constitution and Health. The subjects enrolled in the study were children and adolescents aged 7-18 years in rural areas of provincial capitals. Results An overall positive secular trend in stature occurred in rural areas of provincial capitals in China from 1985 to 2010. The overall average increase rates were 3.1 and 2.4 cm/decade for boys and girls, respectively. The total body height increases for grown up boys and girls were 3.6 and 2.3 cm and the increase rates were 1.4 and 0.9 cm/decade, respectively. There were differences in body height increase among eastern, central and western regions. The average body height of the children or adolescents in eastern region was highest, followed by central region and western region. The overall increase rates in central region were highest among the three regions. The difference between eastern/central region and western region was obvious. Conclusion Positive secular trend in stature of children or adolescents has occurred in rural area of China, and rural boys and girls showed a great potential for continuous growth. More attention should be paid to the differences in children’s body height between western region and eastern/central region.

  9. [Monitoring trends in fixed partial denture design based on national surveys].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fejérdy, Pál; Tollas, Ors Lehel; Fejérdy, László; Borbély, Judit; Hermann, Peter

    2007-12-01

    partial dentures provide a sound basis for estimating the present oral health status of the population. Monitoring patterns of change have an important epidemiological relevance. Results of our present findings serve as a reliable source to plan future strategy of the dental care system and also helps to measure efficiency of the dental education system.

  10. Reconstruction of secular variation in seawater sulfate concentrations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Algeo, T. J.; Luo, G. M.; Song, H. Y.; Lyons, T. W.; Canfield, D. E.

    2015-04-01

    Long-term secular variation in seawater sulfate concentrations ([SO42-]SW) is of interest owing to its relationship to the oxygenation history of Earth's surface environment. In this study, we develop two complementary approaches for quantification of sulfate concentrations in ancient seawater and test their application to late Neoproterozoic (635 Ma) to Recent marine units. The "rate method" is based on two measurable parameters of paleomarine systems: (1) the S-isotope fractionation associated with microbial sulfate reduction (MSR), as proxied by Δ34SCAS-PY, and (2) the maximum rate of change in seawater sulfate, as proxied by &partial; δ 34SCAS/∂ t(max). The "MSR-trend method" is based on the empirical relationship of Δ34SCAS-PY to aqueous sulfate concentrations in 81 modern depositional systems. For a given paleomarine system, the rate method yields an estimate of maximum possible [SO42-]SW (although results are dependent on assumptions regarding the pyrite burial flux, FPY), and the MSR-trend method yields an estimate of mean [SO42-]SW. An analysis of seawater sulfate concentrations since 635 Ma suggests that [SO42-]SW was low during the late Neoproterozoic (short (<~2 Myr) intervals of the Cambrian, Early Triassic, Early Jurassic, and Cretaceous as a consequence of widespread ocean anoxia, intense MSR, and pyrite burial. The procedures developed in this study offer potential for future high-resolution quantitative analyses of paleo-seawater sulfate concentrations.

  11. Turning population trend monitoring into active conservation: Can we save the Cascades Frog (Rana cascadae) in the Lassen region of California?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gary M. Fellers; Karen L. Pope; Jonathan E. Stead; Michelle S. Koo; Hartwell H. Welsh

    2007-01-01

    Monitoring the distribution, population size, and trends of declining species is necessary to evaluate their vulnerability to extinction. It is the responsibility of scientists to alert management professionals of the need for preemptive action if a species approaches imminent, regional extirpation. This is the case with Rana cascadae (Cascades Frog...

  12. As esferas seculares e religiosas na sociedade portuguesa The secular and religious spheres in Portuguese society

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steffen Dix

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available O objectivo principal deste artigo consiste em redesenhar as fronteiras e as sobreposições entre as esferas seculares e as esferas religiosas dentro da modernidade portuguesa. Metodologicamente, pretendo uma aproximação histórico-sociológica, comparando sobretudo as reconfigurações do catolicismo português em quatro épocas marcadas por diferentes condições socioculturais. Assim, proponho uma releitura dos processos da secularização em Portugal.This article seeks to redesign the borders and the overlaps between the secular and religious spheres of Portuguese society. In methodological terms, I propose an historical-sociological approach, comparing especially the reconfigurations of Portuguese Catholicism under different socio-cultural conditions during the 19th and 20th centuries. On the basis of this analysis, I revisit the dual perspective of being either religious or secular, and try to recognize the simultaneous existence and the link between the religious and secular spheres in a modern European society.

  13. Estimation of density and population size and recommendations for monitoring trends of Bahama parrots on Great Abaco and Great Inagua

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rivera-Milan, F. F.; Collazo, J.A.; Stahala, C.; Moore, W.J.; Davis, A.; Herring, G.; Steinkamp, M.; Pagliaro, R.; Thompson, J.L.; Bracey, W.

    2005-01-01

    Once abundant and widely distributed, the Bahama parrot (Amazona leucocephala bahamensis) currently inhabits only the Great Abaco and Great lnagua Islands of the Bahamas. In January 2003 and May 2002-2004, we conducted point-transect surveys (a type of distance sampling) to estimate density and population size and make recommendations for monitoring trends. Density ranged from 0.061 (SE = 0.013) to 0.085 (SE = 0.018) parrots/ha and population size ranged from 1,600 (SE = 354) to 2,386 (SE = 508) parrots when extrapolated to the 26,154 ha and 28,162 ha covered by surveys on Abaco in May 2002 and 2003, respectively. Density was 0.183 (SE = 0.049) and 0.153 (SE = 0.042) parrots/ha and population size was 5,344 (SE = 1,431) and 4,450 (SE = 1,435) parrots when extrapolated to the 29,174 ha covered by surveys on Inagua in May 2003 and 2004, respectively. Because parrot distribution was clumped, we would need to survey 213-882 points on Abaco and 258-1,659 points on Inagua to obtain a CV of 10-20% for estimated density. Cluster size and its variability and clumping increased in wintertime, making surveys imprecise and cost-ineffective. Surveys were reasonably precise and cost-effective in springtime, and we recommend conducting them when parrots are pairing and selecting nesting sites. Survey data should be collected yearly as part of an integrated monitoring strategy to estimate density and other key demographic parameters and improve our understanding of the ecological dynamics of these geographically isolated parrot populations at risk of extinction.

  14. Secular trends of cesarean delivery and medical cesarean indications among primiparous women in a tertiary-level hospital in inner Mongolia during 1990-2010%1990-2010年某三甲医院初产妇剖宫产率和剖宫产指征变化情况

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    曾娜; 刘桂兰; 周玉博; 杨晓彦; 李宏田; 冀小平; 刘建蒙

    2016-01-01

    Objective To explore the secular trends of cesarean delivery and medical cesarean indications among primiparous women in a tertiary-level hospital in inner Mongolia. Methods A total of 6 978 primiparous women who delivered babies in 1990,1995,2000,2005 and 2010.Delivery modes (cesarean section/spontaneous birth) and cesarean indications were obtained from medical records.26 cesarean indications,such as cord entanglement,fetal distress,relative cephalopelvic disproportion,maternal request cesarean,breech presentation,multiple pregnancy and gestational hypertension,were identified.Time trends for each indication were linearly modeled to estimate the relative contribution of each indication to the overall increase or decrease in cesarean rates. Results In the five time points during 20-year period,2 494 cesarean deliveries were identified.The prevalence rate of cesarean delivery was 35.7%.The prevalence of cesarean delivery increased by 2 folds from 22.1% in 1990 to 61.7% in 2000;44.0% of the increase was attributable to the rapid increase in three indications,including cord entanglement,fetal distress and relative cephalopelvic disproportion.The prevalence decreased by 40% from 61.7% in 2000 to 37.0% in 2010;79.8% of the decrease was attributable to the rapid decrease of the three indications.Moreover,it is noticeable that the cesarean prevalence related to maternal request,macrosomia,multiple pregnancy and advanced maternal age steadily increased over time. Conclusion Subjective cesarean indications,such as cord entanglement,fetal distress and relative cephalopelvic disproportion, significantly affected cesarean prevalence rates,suggesting that strict diagnoses is likely to reduce cesareans.Cesarean delivery due to maternal request,macrosomia,multiple pregnancy or advanced maternal age increased over time,and accounted for nearly 30% of total cesarean section by 2010,among which maternal requested cesareans is likely preventable.%目的:了解住院分娩初产

  15. 中国9~18岁汉族女生月经初潮年龄的地域分布及趋势分析%Geographic distribution and secular trend of menarche in 9 - 18 year-old Chinese Han girls

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    宋逸; 马军; 胡佩瑾; 张冰

    2011-01-01

    目的:分析我国9~18岁汉族女生月经初潮年龄及1995年来的变化趋势.方法:利用2005年和1995年全国学生体质健康调研数据,2005年有效人数为92 767人,1995年有效人数为85 433人,用概率单位回归法计算月经初潮年龄(age at menarche,AAM).结果:2005年我国女生的AAM为12.76岁,其中,城市女生为12.60岁,乡村女生为12.92岁,城市比乡村提前约0.32岁.各地区间AAM差异明显,华东、华北地区AAM最早,西南、中南、东北地区次之,西北地区最晚.AAM最早的前5个省级行政单位分别是北京(12.27岁)、上海(12.32岁)、四川(12.48岁)、福建(12.50岁)和天津(12.51岁);AAM最晚的5个省级行政单位分别是青海(14.09岁)、湖北(13.33岁)、黑龙江(13.10岁)、宁夏(13.08岁)和湖南(12.87岁).2005年城、乡女生AAM分别比1995年提前0.22岁和0.34岁.结论:我国9~18岁汉族女生月经初潮发生城市早于乡村,西北地区最晚.女生月经初潮有提前的趋势,乡村较城市更明显;月经初潮在城乡间、地区间差异有缩小趋势.%Objective: To analyze the characteristics and secular trend of age at menarche ( age at menarche, AAM) in Chinese girls aged 9 - 18. Methods : Probit analyses were used to calculate AAMs in various populations of Chinese girls who participated in National Physical Fitness and Health Surveillance in 2005 or 1995. The samples of girls were 92 767 in 2005 and 85 433 in 1995 National Physical Fitness and Health Surveillance, respectively. Results: AAM was 12. 76 years in Chinese girls aged 9 - 18 in China. AAMs were 12. 60 and 12. 92 years for urban and rural girls, respectively. There was a large variation among different geographic areas, and AAM was earlier in girls living in east of China and later in girls living in northwest of China. AAMs of the top 5 municipalities/provinces were Beijing (12. 27 years) , Shanghai ( 12. 32 years) , Sichuan (12. 48 years) , Fujian (12. 50 years) and Tianjin ( 12

  16. Recent Trends in Rapid Environmental Monitoring of Pathogens and Toxicants: Potential of Nanoparticle-Based Biosensor and Applications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Preeyaporn Koedrith

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Of global concern, environmental pollution adversely affects human health and socioeconomic development. The presence of environmental contaminants, especially bacterial, viral, and parasitic pathogens and their toxins as well as chemical substances, poses serious public health concerns. Nanoparticle-based biosensors are considered as potential tools for rapid, specific, and highly sensitive detection of the analyte of interest (both biotic and abiotic contaminants. In particular, there are several limitations of conventional detection methods for water-borne pathogens due to low concentrations and interference with various enzymatic inhibitors in the environmental samples. The increase of cells to detection levels requires long incubation time. This review describes current state of biosensor nanotechnology, the advantage over conventional detection methods, and the challenges due to testing of environmental samples. The major approach is to use nanoparticles as signal reporter to increase output rather than spending time to increase cell concentrations. Trends in future development of novel detection devices and their advantages over other environmental monitoring methodologies are also discussed.

  17. Secular Evolution in Mira Variable Pulsations

    CERN Document Server

    Templeton, M R; Willson, L A

    2005-01-01

    Stellar evolution theory predicts that asymptotic giant branch stars undergo a series of short thermal pulses that significantly change their luminosity and mass on timescales of hundreds to thousands of years. Secular changes in these stars resulting from thermal pulses can be detected as measurable changes in period if the star is undergoing Mira pulsations. The American Association of Variable Star Observers (AAVSO) International Database currently contains visual data for over 1500 Mira variables. Light curves for these stars span nearly a century in some cases, making it possible to study the secular evolution of the pulsation behavior on these timescales. In this paper, we present the results of our study of period change in 547 Mira variables using data from the AAVSO. We find non-zero rates of period change, dlnP/dt, at the 2-sigma significance level in 57 of the 547 stars, at the 3-sigma level in 21 stars, and at the level of 6-sigma or greater in eight of the 547. The latter eight stars have been pr...

  18. The Other Partition: Religious and Secular Education in British Palestine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schneider, Suzanne

    2014-01-01

    The recent critical turn toward post-secularism, particularly on behalf of theorists working from the perspective of Christian societies, has highlighted the difficulty of approaching the history of the Middle East through the binary of religion and secularism. This article argues that such terms are of little explanatory value in and of…

  19. Unholy Trinity? Secularism Institute Renews Liberal Arts Curriculum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keysar, Ariela

    2010-01-01

    Secularism is controversial in today's political debates, championed by some and vilified by others. So when Trinity College in Hartford, Conn., opened a center for the study of secularism in September 2005, some people worried that it could become a source of friction on campus--yet another battleground in the culture wars that are wreaking havoc…

  20. The Other Partition: Religious and Secular Education in British Palestine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schneider, Suzanne

    2014-01-01

    The recent critical turn toward post-secularism, particularly on behalf of theorists working from the perspective of Christian societies, has highlighted the difficulty of approaching the history of the Middle East through the binary of religion and secularism. This article argues that such terms are of little explanatory value in and of…

  1. Faith and Reason in a Post Secular Age

    Science.gov (United States)

    Radford, Mike

    2012-01-01

    The problems that this article seeks to address are those that are raised in the context of the bilateralism that is established when we think in terms of secularism as primarily orientated towards reason and post secularism, towards faith. The objective of the article is to show that the distinction between the two can be collapsed. Post…

  2. Post-secular religious practices entering traditional religion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Urszula Pękala

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Nowadays we can observe complex interactions between the religious and secular spheres. Several different processes take place simultaneously: the traditionally religious elements function in the secular sphere as if they were part of secular culture; elements of the secular sphere build a specific kind of post-secular religiosity; finally, this post-secular religiosity influences traditional religions. This article focuses on the last stage of these changes. The author's purpose is to describe and interpret the practices we can observe. Because of the complexity of this issue, the analyses are limited to examples taken from the Catholic Church in Germany, where this process seems to be as popular as it is paradoxical. Catholicism realises that the post-secular forms of religiosity are very popular and that many people choose them instead of the traditional Church. It could offer them spirituality based on ages of experience. But instead of making its own spiritual tradition competitive on the spiritual market, Catholicism seems to offer Christianised post-secular goods, or its own traditional elements represented in a secularised form. It seems difficult to predict how it will all end. However, we observe an interesting encounter and interaction between an ‘old’ religion and a new religiosity, which will certainly have impact on further presence of the Church in the society.

  3. The Coming of Secular Buddhism: a Synoptic View

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    Winton Higgins

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Secular Buddhism is coalescing today in response to two main factors. First, it rejects the incoherence of Buddhist modernism, a protean formation that accommodates elements as far afield as ancestral Buddhism and psychotherapies claiming the Buddhist brand. Second, it absorbs the cultural influence of modern secularity in the West. Historically understood, secularity has constituted a centuries-long religious development, not a victory of "science" over "religion." Today's secularity marks a further stage in the cultural decline of "enchanted" truth-claims and the intellectual eclipse of metaphysics, especially under the aegis of phenomenology. In Buddhism as in Christianity, secularity brings forth a new humanistic approach to ethical-spiritual life and creative this-worldly practices.

  4. Secular Chaos and the Production of Hot Jupiters

    CERN Document Server

    Wu, Yanqin

    2010-01-01

    In a planetary system with two or more well-spaced, eccentric, inclined planets, secular interactions may lead to chaos. The innermost planet may gradually become very eccentric and/or inclined, as a result of the secular degrees of freedom drifting towards equipartition of angular momentum deficit. Secular chaos is known to be responsible for the eventual destabilization of Mercury in our own Solar System. Here we focus on systems with three giant planets. We characterize the secular chaos and demonstrate the criterion for it to occur, but leave a detailed understanding of secular chaos to a companion paper (Lithwick & Wu, 2010). After an extended period of eccentricity diffusion, the inner planet's pericentre can approach the star to within a few stellar radii. Strong tidal interactions and ensuing tidal dissipation extracts orbital energy from the planet and pulls it inward, creating a hot Jupiter. In contrast to other proposed channels for the production of hot Jupiters, such a scenario (which we term...

  5. Craniofacial dimensions in children in rural Oaxaca, southern Mexico: secular change, 1968-2000.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Little, Bertis B; Buschang, Peter H; Peña Reyes, Maria Eugenia; Tan, Swee Kheng; Malina, Robert M

    2006-09-01

    The objective of this investigation was to analyze the underlying cause(s) of secular changes in craniofacial dimensions among indigenous children in an isolated community in Oaxaca, southern Mexico, between 1968-2000. Subjects were schoolchildren resident in a rural, agrarian, Zapotec-speaking community in the Valley of Oaxaca, previously characterized as mildly-to-moderately undernourished with growth-stunting in 1968 and 1978. In 2000, children had experienced a secular increase in height compared with two prior growth surveys. Four craniofacial dimensions (head length, head breadth, and bizygomatic and bigonial breadths) were measured during anthropometric surveys of schoolchildren aged 6-13 years in 1968, 1978, and 2000. Cephalic and zygomandibular indices were calculated. Samples by survey were: 1968, 151 males and 157 females; 1978, 179 males and 184 females; and 2000, 180 males and 186 females. The analysis was based on a total of 1,037 children. Multivariate analysis of covariance was used to assess secular trend effects, with height, age, and age2 as covariates by sex. Over the interval of 32 years, significant secular changes occurred in craniofacial dimensions and one index: 1) head length was shorter in boys and girls; 2) bizygomatic breadth was narrower in boys and girls; 3) head breadth increased over time only among girls; 4) brachycephalization increased significantly in a linear manner among both sexes; and 5) the zygomandibular index decreased significantly only in boys. Thus, the cranial complex remodeled to a shorter head length, both relatively (brachycephalization) and absolutely. Remodeling over time also resulted in a narrower face, with the midface changing at about the same rate as the lower face (i.e., mandible). Secular changes are generally recognized as multifactorial. Changes in the cephalic index and cranium over time in schoolchildren in an isolated rural agrarian Zapotec-speaking community in the Valley of Oaxaca suggest that the

  6. Monitoring and trend mapping of sea surface temperature (SST) from MODIS data: a case study of Mumbai coast.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azmi, Samee; Agarwadkar, Yogesh; Bhattacharya, Mohor; Apte, Mugdha; Inamdar, Arun B

    2015-04-01

    Sea surface temperature (SST) is one of the most important parameters in monitoring ecosystem health in the marine and coastal environment. Coastal ecosystem is largely dependent on ambient temperature and temperature fronts for marine/coastal habitat and its sustainability. Hence, thermal pollution is seen as a severe threat for ecological health of coastal waters across the world. Mumbai is one of the largest metropolises of the world and faces severe domestic and industrial effluent disposal problem, of which thermal pollution is a major issue with policy-makers and environmental stakeholders. This study attempts to understand the long-term SST variation in the coastal waters off Mumbai, on the western coast of India, and to identify thermal pollution zones. Analysis of SST trends in the near-coastal waters for the pre- and post-monsoon seasons from the year 2004 to the year 2010 has been carried out using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectro-radiometer (MODIS) Thermal Infra-red (TIR) bands. SST is calculated with the help of bands 31 and 32 using split window method. Several statistical operations were then applied to find the seasonal averages in SST and the standard deviation of SST in the study area. Maximum variation in SST was found within a perpendicular distance of 5 km from the shoreline during the study period. Also, a warm water mass was found to form consistently off coast during the winter months. Several anthropogenic sources of thermal pollution could be identified which were found to impact various locations along the coast.

  7. Secular motion around synchronously orbiting planetary satellites.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lara, Martin; San-Juan, Juan F; Ferrer, Sebastián

    2005-12-01

    We investigate the secular motion of a spacecraft around the natural satellite of a planet. The satellite rotates synchronously with its mean motion around the planet. Our model takes into account the gravitational potential of the satellite up to the second order, and the third-body perturbation in Hill's approximation. Close to the satellite, the ratio of rotation rate of the satellite to mean motion of the orbiter is small. When considering this ratio as a small parameter, the Coriolis effect is a first-order perturbation, while the third-body tidal attraction, the ellipticity effect, and the oblateness perturbation remain at higher orders. Then, we apply perturbation theory and find that a third-order approach is enough to show the influence of the satellite's ellipticity in the pericenter dynamics. Finally, we discuss the averaged system in the three-dimensional parametric space, and provide a global description of the flow.

  8. Tendencia secular da amamentacao no Brasil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sonia Isoyama Venancio

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Com o objetivo de documentar a tendência secular da amamentação no Brasil, foram reanalisadas as bases de dados de sete pesquisas nacionais realizadas de 1975 a 2008. Para obter dados comparáveis entre os diferentes inquéritos, foram analisadas as mesmas faixas etárias e indicadores, e utilizadas as mesmas técnicas estatísticas. A duração mediana da amamentação aumentou de 2,5 para 11,3 meses e a prevalência da amamentação exclusiva em menores de seis meses passou de 3,1% para 41,0% no período. Os resultados apontam importantes desafios no sentido de acelerar o ritmo de crescimento dessa prática no País, rumo às recomendações internacionais.

  9. Access to abortion and secular liberties

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roberto Arriada Lorea

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available In Brazil, facing an issue like abortion requires a secular perspective since the freedom of conscience assured by the Federal Constitution places upon the State the need to regard not only different viewpoints of different religions, but more specifically assure the right to diversity existing within a same religion, as well as the right to exercise different views from those of the hierarchy of his/her own religion. As such, there is no legal barrier for the decriminalization of abortion in the country. It is up to legislators to reform the present law and decriminalize abortion, assuming the commitments Brazil has assumed with international human-rights organizations, thus assuring the efficacy of civil liberties.

  10. Rethinking the Secular in Feminist Marriage Debates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ada S. Jaarsma

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available The religious right often aligns its patriarchal opposition to same-sex marriage with the defence of religious freedom. In this article, I identify resources for confronting such prejudicial religiosity by surveying two predominant feminist approaches to same-sex marriage that are often assumed to be at odds: discourse ethics and queer critical theory. This comparative analysis opens to view commitments that may not be fully recognizable from within either feminist framework: commitments to ideals of selfhood, to specific conceptions of justice, and to particular definitions of secularism. I conclude by examining the "postsecular" turn in feminism, suggesting that we can see the same-sex marriage debate not in terms of an impasse between differing feminist approaches, but in terms of shared existential and ethical affinities. 

  11. Rethinking the Secular in Feminist Marriage Debates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ada S. Jaarsma

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available The religious right often aligns its patriarchal opposition to same-sex marriage with the defence of religious freedom. In this article, I identify resources for confronting such prejudicial religiosity by surveying two predominant feminist approaches to same-sex marriage that are often assumed to be at odds: discourse ethics and queer critical theory. This comparative analysis opens to view commitments that may not be fully recognizable from within either feminist framework: commitments to ideals of selfhood, to specific conceptions of justice, and to particular definitions of secularism. I conclude by examining the "postsecular" turn in feminism, suggesting that we can see the same-sex marriage debate not in terms of an impasse between differing feminist approaches, but in terms of shared existential and ethical affinities.

     

  12. [Adolphe Quetelet and biopolitics as secularized theology].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pich, Santiago

    2013-01-01

    The article recaptures the work of an author who has been forgotten by the contemporary social sciences, that is, the Belgium polymath Adolphe Quetelet. Focusing on his main work, Sur l'homme et le développement de ses facultés, ou Essai de physique sociale, the study underscores how the secularization of theological principles within the realm of science was important to the construction of Quetelet's work. His dual engagement in science and politics is pertinent here, as he was the main nineteenth-century force behind the incorporation of statistics as a science essential to the State's ability to govern its people. He also played a relevant role in the realization of the hegemonic political project of modernity, biopolitics, and its influence in the field of biomedicine in the nineteenth and twentieth centuries.

  13. Secular obliquity variations of Ceres and Pallas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bills, Bruce G.; Scott, Bryan R.

    2017-03-01

    We examine variations in the orientations of the orbit poles and spin poles of Ceres and Pallas, on time scales of a few million years. We consider these two bodies together because they have similar orbits, but very different present states of knowledge concerning internal mass distribution and spin pole orientation. For Ceres, the Dawn mission has recently provided accurate estimates of the current spin pole orientation, and the degree 2 spherical harmonics of the gravitational potential. The polar moment of inertia is not as well constrained, but plausible bounds are known. For Pallas, we have estimates of the shape of the body, and spin pole orientation and angular rate, all derived from optical light curves. Using those input parameters, and the readily computed secular variations in the orbit pole, we can compute long term variations in the spin pole orientation. This provides information concerning long term variations in insolation, which controls stability of surface volatiles.

  14. Defining and Distinguishing Secular and Religious Terrorism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Heather S. Gregg

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Religious terrorism is typically characterised as acts of unrestrained, irrational and indiscriminant violence, thus offering few if any policy options for counterterrorism measures. This assumption about religious terrorism stems from two challenges in the literature: disproportionate attention to apocalyptic terrorism, and a lack of distinction between religious terrorism and its secular counterpart. This article, therefore, aims to do four things: define and differentiate religiously motivated terrorism from traditional terrorism; investigate three goals of religious terrorism (fomenting the apocalypse, creating a religious government, and establishing a religiously pure state; consider the role of leadership and target selection of religious terrorists; and, finally, suggest a range of counterterrorism strategies based on these observations.

  15. Starbursts and AGN Fueling through Secular Evolution

    CERN Document Server

    Combes, F

    2006-01-01

    Except in the most extreme cases of nuclear activity, either starbursts or AGN, it is difficult to find observationnally a close link between the dynamics and the activity. Theoretically however, the necessary step to fuel the gas to the center, is that gravity torques are created through a non-axisymmetric pattern, either bar and/or spiral, triggered or not by a tidal interaction. We describe the sequence of processes for a typical evolution cycle for a spiral galaxy, and the possible efficient feedback mechanisms. The various morphologies and dynamical states of spiral galaxies are interpreted in terms of a sequence of evolutionary phases, and the corresponding time-scales can be estimated from observations. In this scenario, activity in galaxies is related to the appearance of bar instability, although they might not be synchronised in phase. The role of external gas accretion in the secular evolution is discussed.

  16. Exploring the determinants of secular decreases in dental caries among Korean children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Hye-Ju; Han, Dong-Hun

    2015-08-01

    The aim of this study was to determine the contributions of sealant and water fluoridation to the time trends in dental caries from 2003 to 2010. Data were from three waves of the Korean National Oral Health Surveys between 2003 and 2010, including a total of 23 059 children (11 889 boys and 11 170 girls) aged 8, 10, and 12 years. The impacts of sealant and water fluoridation on dental caries were obtained by logistic regression for each age group of children. The contributions of sealant and water fluoridation to the time trends in the prevalence of dental caries were examined by a series of logistic regression models, and changes in the adjusted odds ratios for each survey year were also calculated. Over the past 7 years, the prevalence of dental caries decreased dramatically. Although sealant had a significant impact on dental caries in each survey year, remarkable decreases in dental caries from 2003 to 2010 were not explained by the secular changes in the dental sealant or water fluoridation factor. We observed important population declines in dental caries in Korea in children aged 8-12 years; however, the likely causes for these secular trends remain to be determined. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  17. Secular Evolution of Hierarchical Triple Star Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ford, Eric B.; Kozinsky, Boris; Rasio, Frederic A.

    2000-05-01

    We derive octupole-level secular perturbation equations for hierarchical triple systems, using classical Hamiltonian perturbation techniques. Our equations describe the secular evolution of the orbital eccentricities and inclinations over timescales that are long compared to the orbital periods. By extending previous work done to leading (quadrupole) order to octupole level (i.e., including terms of order α3, where α≡a1/a2quadrupole-level theory of Kozai gives a vanishing result in the limit of zero relative inclination. The classical planetary perturbation theory, while valid to all orders in α, applies only to orbits of low-mass objects orbiting a common central mass, with low eccentricities and low relative inclinations. For triple systems containing a close inner binary, we also discuss the possible interaction between the classical Newtonian perturbations and the general relativistic precession of the inner orbit. In some cases we show that this interaction can lead to resonances and a significant increase in the maximum amplitude of eccentricity perturbations. We establish the validity of our analytic expressions by providing detailed comparisons with the results of direct numerical integrations of the three-body problem obtained for a large number of representative cases. In addition, we show that our expressions reduce correctly to previously published analytic results obtained in various limiting regimes. We also discuss applications of the theory in the context of several observed triple systems of current interest, including the millisecond pulsar PSR B1620-26 in M4, the giant planet in 16 Cygni, and the protostellar binary TMR-1.

  18. Establishment of ambient air quality trends using historical monitoring data from Edmonton and Fort McKay, Alberta[General Conference

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Faisal, K.; Gamal El-Din, M. [Alberta Univ., Edmonton, AB (Canada). Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering; Kindzierski, W.B. [Alberta Univ., Edmonton, AB (Canada). Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering]|[SEACOR Environmental Inc., Edmonton, AB (Canada)

    2006-07-01

    Ambient air trends were assessed using data collected over an 8 year period from monitoring stations in Edmonton and Fort McKay, Alberta. In particular, the study evaluated the short term trends in the concentration of carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen dioxide (NO{sub 2}), ozone (O{sub 3}), and particulate matter (PM{sub 2.5}) in Edmonton, as well as the NO{sub 2}, O{sub 3}, PM{sub 2.5}, and total hydrocarbons in Fort McKay. In order to evaluate the ambient air trends, this study examined the changes in concentrations of these pollutants between the 50 - 90 percentiles of concentration distributions for a calendar year. These statistics were assumed to be linear over the period of study and fitted using simple linear regression. Hypothesis tests were performed to determine if the slopes of the best-fit lines were greater or less than zero. There was no indication of a statistically significant short-term trend for NO{sub 2} and O{sub 3} for the city of Edmonton. However, statistically pronounced decreasing trends were noted for CO and PM{sub 2.5}. There was no indication of statistically significant trend for any of the pollutants examined at Fort McKay over the study period. It was cautioned that since the period of study over which trends were examined was short, the changes or lack of changes observed do not necessarily indicate long term trends. However, the results suggest that air quality has remained unchanged during the last 6 to 8 years, despite increased economic development in Edmonton and continued oil sands development in Fort McKay.

  19. Secular Changes of Adiposity and Motor Development in Czech Preschool Children: Lifestyle Changes in Fifty-Five Year Retrospective Study

    OpenAIRE

    Petr Sedlak; Jana Pařízková; Robert Daniš; Hana Dvořáková; Jana Vignerová

    2015-01-01

    Secular trends of adiposity and motor development in preschool children since the fifties of the last century up to the beginning of this millennium were analyzed so as to reveal possible changes due to continuously differentiating lifestyle. In preschool children (n = 3678) height, weight, skinfold thickness over triceps, subscapular, and suprailiac were measured by Harpenden caliper in 1957, 1977, 1980, 1985, 1990, and 2012. Simultaneously, motor performance was tested by evaluating the ach...

  20. Secular changes in height, weight and body mass index in Hong Kong Children

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wang Youfa

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Large population growth surveys of children and adolescents aged 6 to 18 y were undertaken in Hong Kong in 1963 and 1993. The global epidemic of obesity is a major public health concern. To monitor the impact of this epidemic in Hong Kong children and to identify secular changes in growth, a further growth survey was undertaken in 2005/6. Methods Cross-sectional height and weight measurements of 14,842 children and adolescents aged 6 to 18 y from Hong Kong's 18 districts were obtained during the 2005/6 school year. Percentile curves were constructed using LMS method and sex-specific percentile values of weight-for-age, height-for-age, and BMI-for-age were compared with those data from 1963 and 1993. Results Secular changes in height, weight and BMI were noted between 1963 and 1993 and between 1993 and 2005/6. In the latter period, greater changes were observed at younger ages, and particularly in boys. On an annual basis, the 1993–2005/6 changes were less than those during 1963–1993. Using the International Obesity Task Force cut-offs, 16.7% of children were overweight or obese in 2005/6, which was a 5.1% increase since 1993. Conclusion These data provide policy-makers with further evidence of the secular changes in child growth and the increasing obesity epidemic among Hong Kong children.

  1. Evidence of Secular Changes in Physical Activity and Fitness, but Not Adiposity and Diet, in Welsh 12-13 Year Olds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Non E.; Williams, D. R. R.; Rowe, David A.; Davies, Bruce; Baker, Julien S.

    2010-01-01

    Objective: The aim of the present study was to investigate secular trends in selected cardiovascular disease risk factors (namely adiposity, physical activity, physical fitness and diet) in a sample of Welsh 12-13 year olds between 2002 and 2007. Design: Cross-sectional. Setting: A secondary school based in South West Wales. Method: Two studies in…

  2. Religiousness and religious coping in a secular society

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hvidtjørn, Dorte; Hjelmborg, Jacob; Skytthe, Axel;

    2014-01-01

    Women are found to be more religious than men and more likely to use religious coping. Only few studies have explored religious gender differences in more secular societies. This population-based study comprised 3,000 Danish men and women (response rate 45 %) between 20 and 40 years of age...... scored high in the RCOPE exceeded the proportion of women in using positive and especially negative coping strategies. Also, in a secular society, women are found to be more religious than men, but in a subset of the most religious respondents, men were more inclined to use religious coping. Further...... studies on religious coping in secular societies are required....

  3. Trends in air concentration and deposition at background monitoring sites in Sweden - major inorganic compounds, heavy metals and ozone

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kindbom, K.; Svensson, Annika; Sjoeberg, K.; Pihl Karlsson, G.

    2001-09-01

    This report describes concentrations in air of sulphur compounds, soot, nitrogen compounds and ozone in Sweden between 1985-1998. Time trends of concentration in precipitation and deposition of sulphate, nitrate, ammonium, acidity, base cations and chloride in six different regions covering Sweden are evaluated during the period 1983-1998. Trends of heavy metals in precipitation have been analysed for the period 1983-1998 and the change in heavy metal concentration, 1975-1995, in mosses is described. Data used in the trend analyses originates from measurements performed at six Swedish EMEP stations and from approximately 25 stations within the national Precipitation Chemistry Network. Two different statistical methods, linear regression and the non-parametric Mann Kendall test, have been used to evaluate changes in annual mean values. Time trends of concentration of sulphur dioxide, particulate sulphate, soot, nitrogen dioxide, total nitrate and total ammonium in air show highly significant decreasing trends, except for soot at one station in northern Sweden. Concentrations of ozone have a strong seasonal variation with a peak occurring in spring every year. However, annual ozone concentrations show no obvious trends in spite of decreasing emissions of the precursors NOx and VOC. A slight indication of a decreasing trend in the number of ozone episodes might be seen from 1990 to 1998. Sulphate concentrations in precipitation and deposition show strongly significant decreasing trends in the whole country. Concentrations and deposition of nitrate and ammonium have been decreasing in all areas except for nitrate at stations in south-west and north-west Sweden and ammonium in south-west Sweden. Acidity has decreased in all areas since 1989, resulting in increasing pH values in Sweden. The interannual variations of concentration and deposition of base cations and chloride are large and few general trends can be seen during 1983-1997. Time trends of four heavy metals in

  4. Secular Law in an Islamic Polity: The Ottoman Case

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ihsan Yilmaz

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study is twofold. Firstly it puts that long before the foundation of Turkish Republic, the Ottoman sultans from the 18th century on gradually secularized their legal systems through transplanting Western codes and institutions with the exception of civil code. Secondly and more assertively it argues that this secularization process did not evoke a serious struggle between the religious and political authorities as it did in the West thanks to the political conventions and legal characteristics the Ottoman state carried along from its very beginning on. Secularism began to pose serious problems from the first years of Turkish Republic on when the Kemalist establishment set about extending the area of legal secularism and turning it to an ideology which can be called as ultrasecularism or Kemalist laïcité with an aim to socially engineer society in a topdown fashion by legal instrumentalism.

  5. Secular Law in an Islamic Polity: The Ottoman Case

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ihsan Yilmaz

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study is twofold. Firstly it puts that long before the foundation of Turkish Republic, the Ottoman sultans from the 18th century on gradually secularized their legal systems through transplanting Western codes and institutions with the exception of civil code. Secondly and more assertively it argues that this secularization process did not evoke a serious struggle between the religious and political authorities as it did in the West thanks to the political conventions and legal characteristics the Ottoman state carried along from its very beginning on. Secularism began to pose serious problems from the first years of Turkish Republic on when the Kemalist establishment set about extending the area of legal secularism and turning it to an ideology which can be called as ultrasecularism or Kemalist laïcité with an aim to socially engineer society in a topdown fashion by legal instrumentalism.

  6. Sex, secularism and religious influence in US politics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bernstein, Elizabeth; Jakobsen, Janet R

    2010-01-01

    Through an analysis of alliances between secular and religious actors in US politics and a specific case study on anti-trafficking policy, we show that the intertwining of religion and politics in the US comes from two sources: 1) the secular political and cultural institutions of American public life that have developed historically out of Protestantism, and which predominantly operate by presuming Protestant norms and values; and 2) the direct influence on US politics of religious groups and organisations, particularly in the past quarter-century of lobby groups and political action committees identified with conservative evangelical Christianity. The sources of policies that promote gender and sexual inequality in the US are both secular and religious and we conclude that it is inaccurate to assume that religious influence in politics is necessarily conservative or that more secular politics will necessarily be more progressive than the religious varieties.

  7. The Eskdale Commune: Desert Alternative to Secular Schools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buchanan, Frederick S.; Stott, Larry W.

    1974-01-01

    The Schools of Eskdale, a religious commune of the Order of Aaron, are attempting to escape the dualism and fragmentation so prevalent in public schools and show promise of becoming another viable alternative to secular schooling. (Author)

  8. Not Christian, but Nonetheless Qualified: The Secular Workplace - Whose Hardship?

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Gwendolyn Yvonne Alexis

    2015-01-01

    .... society the influx of immigrants from non-Christian, non-Western cultures. Focusing on the workplace, the author argues that non-Christian employees are at a disadvantage in the so-called secular U.S...

  9. Cambio secular en la estatura adulta chorote

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mendez, Marta Graciela

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available La estatura adulta es un indicador de la solvencia biológica de un individuo en la distribución energética de su historia vital. Constituye un proxy de la disponibilidad total de nutrientes y de los gastos en la defensa inmune durante el período de crecimiento. Es, por lo tanto, rotuladora de potencial reproductivo en las sociedades con variaciones estacionales de niveles de recursos. En este trabajo se analizan los efectos del cambio secular en la estatura total en 198 individuos adultos de ambos sexos nacidos entre 1861 y 1953, con edades entre 17 y 75 años, distribuidos en dos conjuntos de datos. La información fue agrupada por sexo y se calcularon promedio, DS y CV para cada uno de ellos. Las diferencias fueron testeadas en su significación a través de la prueba “t” entre sub-muestras del mismo sexo y sobre sub-muestras parciales de individuos ≤ de 45 años, para controlar los efectos del envejecimiento sobre la variable. Se analizaron, además, las diferencias en la estatura total sobre dos sub-muestras del mismo sexo contenidas en una misma banda etaria (20-30 años, lo cual permitió el cálculo del coeficiente de aumento diacrónico de la estatura en un período medio de 64 años. Los resultados demuestran que: a la estatura masculina es mayor que la femenina; b hay aumento temporal en las sub-muestras de los hombres ≤ de 45 años con diferencias significativas a nivel 0,02 para 2P; c en las sub-muestras de mujeres ≤ de 45 años las diferencias no son significativas; d el coeficiente de aumento diacrónico de la estatura es 0,4mm por año para los hombres y nulo para las mujeres. Se concluye que los hombres, controlado el efecto del envejecimiento, manifiestan un discreto aumento secular que favorece la hipótesis según la cual los varones presentarían una eco-sensibilidad más acentuada que las mujeres. Estas, al mantener su tamaño corporal más estable, garantizaron los recursos energéticos para optimizar su

  10. The role of collective effects and secular mass migration on galactic transformation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xiaolei; Buta, Ronald J.

    2015-03-01

    During the lifetime of a galaxy, secular radial mass redistribution is expected to gradually build up a bulge and transform the Hubble type from late to early. The dominant dynamical process responsible for this transformation is a collective instability mediated by density-wave collisionless shocks (Zhang 1996, 1998, 1999). The ability of this new mechanism to secularly redistribute the STELLAR mass provides a general pathway for the formation and evolution of the majority of Hubble types, ranging from late type disk galaxiess to disky ellipticals. ATLAS3D results (Cappellari et al. 2013) showed that spirals and S0s and disky ellipticals form a continuous trend of evolution which also coincides with the aging of the stellar population of galactic disks. The importance of stellar accretion is also revealed in the results of the COSMOS team which showed that the evolution of the black-hole-mass/bulge-mass correlation since z = 1 was mainly due to the mass redistribution on pre-existing STELLAR disks which were already in place by z = 1 (Cisternas et al. 2011). The weaker correlation between the masses of late-type bulges and AGNs observed at any given epoch in our view is a result of the quicker initial onset of accretion events in AGN disks compared to that in galactic disks, since the dynamical timescale is shorter for smaller AGN accretion disks. The same secular dynamical process can produce and maintain the well-known scaling relations and universal rotation curves of observed galaxies during their Hubble-type transformation (Zhang 2008), as well as reproduce many other observed structural and kinematic properties of galaxies such as the size-line-width relation of the interstellar medium and the age-velocity dispersion relation of solar neighborhood stars in our own Galaxy. A by-product of this analysis is a powerful new method for locating the multiple corotation resonances in galaxies (Zhang & Buta 2007; Buta & Zhang 2009). The current work also highlights

  11. Youth Suicide Trends in Finland, 1969-2008

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lahti, Anniina; Rasanen, Pirkko; Riala, Kaisa; Keranen, Sirpa; Hakko, Helina

    2011-01-01

    Background: There are only a few recent studies on secular trends in child and adolescent suicides. We examine here trends in rates and methods of suicide among young people in Finland, where suicide rates at these ages are among the highest in the world. Methods: The data, obtained from Statistics Finland, consisted of all suicides (n = 901)…

  12. Secularization and change of function of religion in modern society

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Y. Medviedieva

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The article is devoted to the problem of determining the principles of sociological reflection of secularization as a prerequisite for the formation of bourgeois society. Author concluded that the traditional ways of seeing the world in terms of secularization were replaced profane and scientific outlook. For this reason, it can be argued that spirituality and divinity no longer perceived as constantly present in the environment, and their attributes are shifting to social movements, leading to the replacement of interpersonal relations man with Supreme mediating force communities. Given the secularized social, people considering themselves religious, religious assess the impact on their lives as less important compared to past eras. Thus, social life is more and more exposed reducing the influence of religion and churches as secular beliefs and secularism in outlook continuously enhanced Western suspilstv.Z other hand, describes the process of secularization out institutional churches outside those areas that were controlled by them or under their influence. It first appeared in the separation of church and state, and the expropriation of church property and territories in the 18th century. As a result, churches and religious institutions have lost their wealth, prestige and influence in society. The decrease their political and social influence, even in our present century, is quite obvious.

  13. Secular changes in Mid-Upper-Arm Circumference of Chandigarh Infants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A.K.. Bhalla

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The secular trend in terms of growth of mid-upper-arm circumference (MUAC of fullterm, normal birth weight infants of the two sexes, representing Cohort I (Male: 44, Female: 30 born between 1978-1980 and Cohort II (Male: 50, Female: 50 born between 2006-2007 to parents representing upper socio-economic strata, in Chandigarh was longitudinally evaluated as the same so far has not been studied. All babies were enrolled from Labor Room of the Postgraduate Institute of Medical Education and Research and subsequently, followed in Growth Clinic of the Department of Pediatrics. MUAC amongst infants of the two sexes representing both the Cohorts grew uninterruptedly between 1 to 12 months. Cohort I and II male infants in general, possessed larger MUAC than females. However, statistically significant gender differences were recorded for Cohort II infants only at 9 months. The mean MUAC of infants belonging to Cohort II, measured significantly (p≤0.001 greater than Cohort I infants during first year of life. Higher growth attainments recorded for MUAC in Cohort II infants than those of Cohort I speak of existence of progressive secular trend amongst Chandigarh infants over a period of about three decades.

  14. Mercury's resonant rotation from secular orbital elements

    CERN Document Server

    Stark, Alexander; Hussmann, Hauke

    2015-01-01

    We used recently produced Solar System ephemeris, which incorporate two years of ranging observations to the MESSENGER spacecraft, to extract the secular orbital elements for Mercury and associated uncertainties. As Mercury is in a stable 3:2 spin-orbit resonance these values constitute an important reference for the planet's measured rotational parameters, which in turn strongly bear on physical interpretation of Mercury's interior structure. In particular, we derive an mean orbital period of 87.96934962 $\\pm$ 0.00000037 days and (assuming the perfect resonance) a spin rate of 6.138506839 $\\pm$ 0.000000028 degree/day. The difference between this rotation rate and the currently adopted rotation rate (Archinal et al, 2011) corresponds to a longitudinal displacement of approx. 67 m per year at the equator. Moreover, we present a basic approach for the calculation of the orientation of the instantaneous Laplace and Cassini planes of Mercury. The analysis allows us to assess the uncertainties in physical paramete...

  15. Starbursts and agn fueling through secular evolution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Combes

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Excepto en los casos m as extremos de actividad nuclear, ya sea explosi on de formaci on estelar o AGN, es dif cil encontrar de manera observacional una estrecha relaci on entre la din amica y la actividad. De manera te orica, sin embargo, el paso necesario para aprovisionar de gas al centro es que las torcas de gravedad se creen mediante un patr on no axisim etrico, ya sea de barra y/o espiral, provocado o no por una interacci on de marea. Describimos la secuencia de los procesos de un ciclo t pico de evoluci on para una galaxia espiral, y los posibles mecanismos e cientes de retroalimentaci on. Las diversas morfolog as y estados din amicos de galaxias espirales son interpretados en t erminos de una secuencia de fases evolutivas, y las escalas temporales correspondientes se pueden estimar de observaciones. En este escenario, la actividad en las galaxias est a relacionada con la apariencia de la inestabilidad de la barra, aunque sus fases no est en sincronizadas. Se discute el papel de la acreci on externa de gas en la evoluci on secular.

  16. Application of a point of care creatinine device for trend monitoring in kidney transplant patients: Fit for purpose?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lint, C.L. van; Boog, P.J.M. van der; Romijn, F.P.H.T.M.; Schenk, P.W.; Dijk, S. van; Rövekamp, T.J.M.; Kessler, A.; Siekmann, L.; Rabelink, T.J.; Cobbaert, C.M.

    2015-01-01

    Background: The StatSensor® Xpress-i™, a point-of-care system for blood creatinine measurement, offers patients the possibility of self-monitoring creatinine. In this study, the analytical performance of the StatSensor® for both detecting current renal function and monitoring renal (dys)function in

  17. Precambrian Secular Evolution of Oceanic Nickel Concentrations: An Update

    Science.gov (United States)

    Konhauser, K.; Pecoits, E.; Peacock, C.; Robbins, L. J.; Kappler, A.; Lalonde, S.

    2014-12-01

    Iron formations (IF) preserve a history of Precambrian oceanic elemental abundance that can be exploited to address nutrient limitations on early biological productivity. In 2009 we reported that secular trends in IF Ni/Fe ratios record a reduced flux of Ni to the oceans ca. 2.7 billion years ago, which we attribute to decreased eruption of Ni-rich ultramafic rocks1. We determined that dissolved Ni concentrations may have reached ~400 nM throughout much of the Archean, but dropped below ~200 nM by 2.5 Ga and to modern day values (~9 nM) by ~550 Ma. As Ni is a key metal cofactor in several enzymes of methanogens, its decline would have stifled their activity in the ancient oceans and disrupted the supply of biogenic methane. Here we provide an updated compilation of Ni concentrations and Ni/Fe ratios in Precambrian iron formations based on a greatly expanded (>3 fold) dataset. We frame our rock record compilation in the context of new experiments examining the partitioning and mobility of Ni during simulated diagenesis of Ni-doped iron formation mineral precursors, as well as a fresh look at Ni-Fe scaling relationships in IF vs. modern Fe-rich chemical sediments. While its potential effects on atmospheric oxygenation remains to be fully resolved2, our new results reaffirm the Paleoproterozoic Ni famine, whereby the enzymatic reliance of methanogens on a diminishing supply of volcanic Ni links mantle cooling to the trajectory of Earth surface biogeochemical evolution. Konhauser KO, et al. (2009) Oceanic nickel depletion and a methanogen famine before the Great Oxidation Event. Nature 458: 750-753. Kasting JE (2013) What caused the rise of atmospheric O2? Chemical Geology 362: 13-25.

  18. Feminist Practice and Solidarity in Secular Societies : Case Studies on Feminists Crossing Religious–Secular Divides in Politics and Practice in Antwerp, Belgium

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van den Brandt, H.P.

    2015-01-01

    In west European countries, public debates on migration, integration, and diversity are informed by particular understandings of secularism and the secular society. In our increasingly diverse societies, so the story goes, it is needed to implement a certain type of secularism and/or support

  19. Feminist Practice and Solidarity in Secular Societies : Case Studies on Feminists Crossing Religious–Secular Divides in Politics and Practice in Antwerp, Belgium

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van den Brandt, H.P.

    2015-01-01

    In west European countries, public debates on migration, integration, and diversity are informed by particular understandings of secularism and the secular society. In our increasingly diverse societies, so the story goes, it is needed to implement a certain type of secularism and/or support particu

  20. Constitutionalizing secularism, alternative secularisms or liberal-democratic constitutionalism? A critical reading of some Turkish, ECtHR and Indian Supreme Court cases on ‘secularism’

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bader, V.

    2010-01-01

    In recent debates on the constitutional status of 'secularism' we can discern three positions. The first tries to overcome the absence of 'secularism' in most liberal-democratic constitutions by developing a more robust theory of constitutional secularism. The second develops theories of

  1. An evaluation of teeth of ringed seals (Phoca hispida) from Greenland as a matrix to monitor spatial and temporal trends of mercury and stable isotopes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aubail, Aurore, E-mail: aaubail@yahoo.fr [National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Frederiksborgvej 399, P.O. Box 358, DK-4000 Roskilde (Denmark); Littoral, Environnement et Societes (LIENSs), UMR 6250, CNRS-Universite de La Rochelle, 2 rue Olympe de Gouges, F-17000 La Rochelle (France); Dietz, Rune; Riget, Frank [National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Frederiksborgvej 399, P.O. Box 358, DK-4000 Roskilde (Denmark); Simon-Bouhet, Benoit; Caurant, Florence [Littoral, Environnement et Societes (LIENSs), UMR 6250, CNRS-Universite de La Rochelle, 2 rue Olympe de Gouges, F-17000 La Rochelle (France)

    2010-10-01

    Total mercury (Hg) concentrations were measured in teeth of ringed seals from Qeqertarsuaq, central West Greenland (1982 to 2006) and Ittoqqortoormiit, central East Greenland (1986 to 2006). Stable isotopic ratios of carbon ({sup 13}C/{sup 12}C) and nitrogen ({sup 15}N/{sup 14}N) were determined as well to provide insights into diet variations between regions or through time. Mercury concentrations decreased the first years of life of the animals suggesting that Hg had been transferred from the mother to the foetus and newborn. The Hg concentrations in teeth were significantly lesser in ringed seals from central West Greenland compared to those from central East Greenland. Carbon and nitrogen stable isotopic values measured in the animals differed also significantly between the two regions. Increasing temporal trends of dental Hg concentrations between 1994 and 2006 were observed in ringed seals from both central West Greenland and central East Greenland. These increases were attributed to global changes in environmental Hg levels since no temporal trends in {delta}{sup 15}N values were found to support the hypothesis of a diet shift over time. Furthermore, a decreasing temporal trend in {delta}{sup 13}C values was observed in the teeth of seals from central East Greenland, and explained by a likely change over time towards more pelagic feeding habits; alternatively, the so-known Seuss effect was thought to be responsible for this decrease. Finally, it was concluded that the tooth of ringed seal was a good monitoring tissue to assess Hg trends.

  2. An evaluation of teeth of ringed seals (Phoca hispida) from Greenland as a matrix to monitor spatial and temporal trends of mercury and stable isotopes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aubail, Aurore; Dietz, Rune; Rigét, Frank; Simon-Bouhet, Benoît; Caurant, Florence

    2010-10-01

    Total mercury (Hg) concentrations were measured in teeth of ringed seals from Qeqertarsuaq, central West Greenland (1982 to 2006) and Ittoqqortoormiit, central East Greenland (1986 to 2006). Stable isotopic ratios of carbon ((13)C/(12)C) and nitrogen ((15)N/(14)N) were determined as well to provide insights into diet variations between regions or through time. Mercury concentrations decreased the first years of life of the animals suggesting that Hg had been transferred from the mother to the foetus and newborn. The Hg concentrations in teeth were significantly lesser in ringed seals from central West Greenland compared to those from central East Greenland. Carbon and nitrogen stable isotopic values measured in the animals differed also significantly between the two regions. Increasing temporal trends of dental Hg concentrations between 1994 and 2006 were observed in ringed seals from both central West Greenland and central East Greenland. These increases were attributed to global changes in environmental Hg levels since no temporal trends in delta(15)N values were found to support the hypothesis of a diet shift over time. Furthermore, a decreasing temporal trend in delta(13)C values was observed in the teeth of seals from central East Greenland, and explained by a likely change over time towards more pelagic feeding habits; alternatively, the so-known Seuss effect was thought to be responsible for this decrease. Finally, it was concluded that the tooth of ringed seal was a good monitoring tissue to assess Hg trends.

  3. Secular orbital evolution of Jupiter family comets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rickman, H.; Gabryszewski, R.; Wajer, P.; Wiśniowski, T.; Wójcikowski, K.; Szutowicz, S.; Valsecchi, G. B.; Morbidelli, A.

    2017-02-01

    Context. The issue of the long term dynamics of Jupiter family comets (JFCs) involves uncertain assumptions about the physical evolution and lifetimes of these comets. Contrary to what is often assumed, real effects of secular dynamics cannot be excluded and therefore merit investigation. Aims: We use a random sample of late heavy bombardment cometary projectiles to study the long-term dynamics of JFCs by a Monte Carlo approach. In a steady-state picture of the Jupiter family, we investigate the orbital distribution of JFCs, including rarely visited domains like retrograde orbits or orbits within the outer parts of the asteroid main belt. Methods: We integrate 100 000 objects over a maximum of 100 000 orbital revolutions including the Sun, a comet, and four giant planets. Considering the steady-state number of JFCs to be proportional to the total time spent in the respective orbital domain, we derive the capture rate based on observed JFCs with small perihelia and large nuclei. We consider a purely dynamical model and one where the nuclei are eroded by ice sublimation. Results: The JFC inclination distribution is incompatible with our erosional model. This may imply that a new type of comet evolution model is necessary. Considering that comets may live for a long time, we show that JFCs can evolve into retrograde orbits as well as asteroidal orbits in the outer main belt or Cybele regions. The steady-state capture rate into the Jupiter family is consistent with 1 × 109 scattered disk objects with diameters D > 2 km. Conclusions: Our excited scattered disk makes it difficult to explain the JFC inclination distribution, unless the physical evolution of JFCs is more intricate than assumed in standard, erosional models. Independent of this, the population size of the Jupiter family is consistent with a relatively low-mass scattered disk.

  4. Trends in monitoring pharmaceuticals and personal-care products in the aquatic environment by use of passive sampling devices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mills, G.A.; Vrana, B.; Allan, I.; Alvarez, D.A.; Huckins, J.N.; Greenwood, R.

    2007-01-01

    The use of passive sampling in monitoring pharmaceuticals and personal-care products (PPCPs) in the aquatic environment is discussed. The utility of passive sampling methods for monitoring the fraction of heavy metals and the biologically available fraction of non-polar organic priority pollutants is recognized and these technologies are being used in surveys of water quality. These devices are used to measure the dissolved fraction and they can yield information that can be used in the development of risk assessments models. These devices can also be used to locate illegal dumping and to monitor specific sources of input of PPCPs into the environment, or to monitor the effectiveness of water treatment processes in the removal of these compounds from wastewater. These devices can provide representative information at low cost which necessitate a combination of laboratory calibration and field studies for emerging pollutants.

  5. Monitoring influenza activity in the United States: a comparison of traditional surveillance systems with Google Flu Trends.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Justin R Ortiz

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Google Flu Trends was developed to estimate US influenza-like illness (ILI rates from internet searches; however ILI does not necessarily correlate with actual influenza virus infections. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Influenza activity data from 2003-04 through 2007-08 were obtained from three US surveillance systems: Google Flu Trends, CDC Outpatient ILI Surveillance Network (CDC ILI Surveillance, and US Influenza Virologic Surveillance System (CDC Virus Surveillance. Pearson's correlation coefficients with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI were calculated to compare surveillance data. An analysis was performed to investigate outlier observations and determine the extent to which they affected the correlations between surveillance data. Pearson's correlation coefficient describing Google Flu Trends and CDC Virus Surveillance over the study period was 0.72 (95% CI: 0.64, 0.79. The correlation between CDC ILI Surveillance and CDC Virus Surveillance over the same period was 0.85 (95% CI: 0.81, 0.89. Most of the outlier observations in both comparisons were from the 2003-04 influenza season. Exclusion of the outlier observations did not substantially improve the correlation between Google Flu Trends and CDC Virus Surveillance (0.82; 95% CI: 0.76, 0.87 or CDC ILI Surveillance and CDC Virus Surveillance (0.86; 95%CI: 0.82, 0.90. CONCLUSIONS: This analysis demonstrates that while Google Flu Trends is highly correlated with rates of ILI, it has a lower correlation with surveillance for laboratory-confirmed influenza. Most of the outlier observations occurred during the 2003-04 influenza season that was characterized by early and intense influenza activity, which potentially altered health care seeking behavior, physician testing practices, and internet search behavior.

  6. Monitoring Influenza Activity in the United States: A Comparison of Traditional Surveillance Systems with Google Flu Trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ortiz, Justin R.; Zhou, Hong; Shay, David K.; Neuzil, Kathleen M.; Fowlkes, Ashley L.; Goss, Christopher H.

    2011-01-01

    Background Google Flu Trends was developed to estimate US influenza-like illness (ILI) rates from internet searches; however ILI does not necessarily correlate with actual influenza virus infections. Methods and Findings Influenza activity data from 2003–04 through 2007–08 were obtained from three US surveillance systems: Google Flu Trends, CDC Outpatient ILI Surveillance Network (CDC ILI Surveillance), and US Influenza Virologic Surveillance System (CDC Virus Surveillance). Pearson's correlation coefficients with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were calculated to compare surveillance data. An analysis was performed to investigate outlier observations and determine the extent to which they affected the correlations between surveillance data. Pearson's correlation coefficient describing Google Flu Trends and CDC Virus Surveillance over the study period was 0.72 (95% CI: 0.64, 0.79). The correlation between CDC ILI Surveillance and CDC Virus Surveillance over the same period was 0.85 (95% CI: 0.81, 0.89). Most of the outlier observations in both comparisons were from the 2003–04 influenza season. Exclusion of the outlier observations did not substantially improve the correlation between Google Flu Trends and CDC Virus Surveillance (0.82; 95% CI: 0.76, 0.87) or CDC ILI Surveillance and CDC Virus Surveillance (0.86; 95%CI: 0.82, 0.90). Conclusions This analysis demonstrates that while Google Flu Trends is highly correlated with rates of ILI, it has a lower correlation with surveillance for laboratory-confirmed influenza. Most of the outlier observations occurred during the 2003–04 influenza season that was characterized by early and intense influenza activity, which potentially altered health care seeking behavior, physician testing practices, and internet search behavior. PMID:21556151

  7. Secular- and merger-built bulges in barred galaxies

    CERN Document Server

    Mendez-Abreu, J; Corsini, E M; Aguerri, J A L

    2014-01-01

    (Abridged) We study the incidence, as well as the nature, of composite bulges in a sample of 10 face-on barred galaxies to constrain the formation and evolutionary processes of the central regions of disk galaxies. We analyze the morphological, photometric, and kinematic properties of each bulge. Then, by using a case-by-case analysis we identify composite bulges and classify every component into a classical or pseudobulge. In addition, bar-related boxy/peanut (B/P) structures were also identified and characterised. We find only three galaxies hosting a single-component bulge (two pseudobulges and one classical bulge). We find evidence of composite bulges coming in two main types based on their formation: secular-built and merger- and secular-built. We call secular-built to composite bulges made of entirely by structures associated with secular processes such as pseudo bulges, central disks, or B/P bulges. We find four composite bulges of this kind in our sample. On the other hand, merger- and secular-built b...

  8. Secularization- the promoter of “new type of man”

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Traian-Alexandru MIU

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Secularization is a phenomenon supposing major mutations on the social level. Thus, based on the principle of rationality, secularization has led to the removal of religion from the social sphere, the desacralization, aiming, ultimately, that the sacred disappear altogether from man's life. Within the globalizing-secularizing society, economics seeks to take possession of the entire social and spiritual life, helped by a policy-aggressive mercantile mentality. Secularization has led to manipulation of man so that he believes he has to build his future by abstaining from religion. The secularized man has come to the conclusion that only by his own forces helped by reason, economy and technology he can be the one who creates progress, namely perfection for himself and for the world he lives in. The hypermodern man is a man of ephemerality, a human being looking for his accomplishment in trifles, who no longer has deification as his final goal. The problems that man is facing today can be solved by taking the eternity as reference system for them.

  9. Meteorologically-adjusted trend analysis of surface observed ozone at three monitoring sites in Delhi, India: 2007-2011

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biswas, J.; Farooqui, Z.; Guttikunda, S. K.

    2012-12-01

    It is well known that meteorological parameters have significant impact on surface ozone concentrations. Therefore it is important to remove the effects of meteorology on ozone concentrations to correctly estimate long-term trends in ozone levels due to the alterations in precursor emissions. This is important for the development of effectual control strategies. In this study surface observed ozone trends in New Delhi are analyzed using Komogorov-Zurbenko (KZ) filter, US EPA ozone adjustment due to weather approach and the classification and regression tree method. The statistical models are applied to the ozone data at three observational sites in New Delhi metropolitan areas, 1) Income Tax Office (ITO) 2) Sirifort and 3) Delhi College of Engineering (DCE). The ITO site is located adjacent to a traffic crossing, Sirifort is an urban site and the DCE site is located in a residential area. The ITO site is also influenced by local industrial emissions. DCE has higher ozone levels than the other two sites. It was found that ITO has lowest ozone concentrations amongst the three sites due to ozone titrating due to industrial and on-road mobile NOx emissions. The statistical methods employed can assess ozone trends at these sites with a high degree of confidence and the results can be used to gauge the effectiveness of control strategies on surface ozone levels in New Delhi.

  10. The practice of mindfulness: from Buddhism to secular mainstream in a post-secular society

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liselotte Frisk

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The article focuses on the practice of mindfulness, which has migrated from being part of a religion, Buddhism, to being an integral part of Western psychology. Mindfulness is especially used in cognitive behavioural therapy, but also in, e.g., dialectical behavioural therapy (DBT and acceptance and commitment therapy (ACT. In Sweden several doctors, psychologists and psychiatrists use and recommend mindfulness for therapeutic purposes. Mindfulness is used today in many segments of mainstream medical and therapeutic care. Mindfulness is also used outside the mainstream medical and therapeutic sector, in the area of personal development or spirituality, as well as in more traditional Buddhist groups and innovative Buddhist groups such as vipassana groups. This paper investigates the migration of mindfulness from a religious to a secular sphere, and discusses whether mindfulness is a religious practice or not.

  11. GPS在变形监测技术现状及发展趋势%Present Situation of GPS technology in deformation monitoring and development trend

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张家明; 吴新宇; 彭述刚

    2015-01-01

    GPS技术以速度快、全天候、高精度、自动化等诸多优点,被广泛运用到高层建筑、地质灾害、矿山矿井等变形监测中,由于垂直位移监测精度低、噪声干扰等问题,促使了与其他技术相互集成。文章阐述了基于GPS周期性与连续性2种变形监测模式及其数据处理方式,探讨了单一GPS变形监测技术存在的5方面主要问题,分析了目前基于3S集成技术、在线实时分析系统、结合小波分析等主流GPS变形监测技术现状,提出了基于3S技术、Web动态监测、四维可视化监测、移动终端监测的GPS变形监测未来发展趋势。%Global Positioning System(GPS ) technology has been widely applied to deformation monitoring of high-rise buildings, geological disasters and mines with advantages of fast, all-weather, high precision and automation. Problem of low vertical displacement monitoring accuracy and noise has been promoted mutual integration with other technologies.This paper describes two kinds of deformation monitoring model and its data processing based on GPS cyclical and continuity,discusses the main issues in five areas GPS deformation monitoring technology exists, analyzes the deformation monitoring technology based on the current status of 3S integration technology, online real-time analysis system, combining wavelet analysis, proposes development trend of GPS deformation monitoring based on 3S technology, Web dynamic monitoring, 4D visualization monitoring and mobile terminal monitoring.

  12. Monitoring of public financed energy research in the Netherlands 2012. View on expenses, themes and trends. Final report; Monitor publiek gefinancierd energieonderzoek 2012. Zicht op bestedingen, thema's en trends. Eindrapport

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Van Ommeren, K.; De Pater, M.; Pertijs, J. [Decisio, Amsterdam (Netherlands)

    2013-08-15

    An inventory of expenditures in the Netherlands for energy research, development and demonstration projects was made for the year 2012 [Dutch] Nederland kent een groot aantal stimuleringsmaatregelen voor energieonderzoek. Ook voeren publiek gefinancierde instellingen, zoals kennisinstituten en universiteiten, energieonderzoek uit. De jaarlijkse monitor van Agentschap NL geeft inzicht in de omvang van publieke geldstromen naar energieonderzoek en de thema's waaraan deze middelen besteed worden.

  13. Trend monitoring of the areal extent of habitats in a subsiding coastal area by spatial probability sampling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brus, D.J.; Slim, P.A.; Heidema, A.H.; Dobben, van H.F.

    2014-01-01

    The European Habitats Directive requires a regular reporting of areal changes of the Habitat types definedunder this Directive. To monitor changes in Habitat types in a dune and salt meadow area in the easternpart of the back-barrier island of Ameland (The Netherlands) a sampling scheme was designed

  14. Development of system decision support tools for behavioral trends monitoring of machinery maintenance in a competitive environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adeyeri, Michael Kanisuru; Mpofu, Khumbulani

    2017-01-01

    The article is centred on software system development for manufacturing company that produces polyethylene bags using mostly conventional machines in a competitive world where each business enterprise desires to stand tall. This is meant to assist in gaining market shares, taking maintenance and production decisions by the dynamism and flexibilities embedded in the package as customers' demand varies under the duress of meeting the set goals. The production and machine condition monitoring software (PMCMS) is programmed in C# and designed in such a way to support hardware integration, real-time machine conditions monitoring, which is based on condition maintenance approach, maintenance decision suggestions and suitable production strategies as the demand for products keeps changing in a highly competitive environment. PMCMS works with an embedded device which feeds it with data from the various machines being monitored at the workstation, and the data are read at the base station through transmission via a wireless transceiver and stored in a database. A case study was used in the implementation of the developed system, and the results show that it can monitor the machine's health condition effectively by displaying machines' health status, gives repair suggestions to probable faults, decides strategy for both production methods and maintenance, and, thus, can enhance maintenance performance obviously.

  15. Development of system decision support tools for behavioral trends monitoring of machinery maintenance in a competitive environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adeyeri, Michael Kanisuru; Mpofu, Khumbulani

    2017-01-01

    The article is centred on software system development for manufacturing company that produces polyethylene bags using mostly conventional machines in a competitive world where each business enterprise desires to stand tall. This is meant to assist in gaining market shares, taking maintenance and production decisions by the dynamism and flexibilities embedded in the package as customers' demand varies under the duress of meeting the set goals. The production and machine condition monitoring software (PMCMS) is programmed in C# and designed in such a way to support hardware integration, real-time machine conditions monitoring, which is based on condition maintenance approach, maintenance decision suggestions and suitable production strategies as the demand for products keeps changing in a highly competitive environment. PMCMS works with an embedded device which feeds it with data from the various machines being monitored at the workstation, and the data are read at the base station through transmission via a wireless transceiver and stored in a database. A case study was used in the implementation of the developed system, and the results show that it can monitor the machine's health condition effectively by displaying machines' health status, gives repair suggestions to probable faults, decides strategy for both production methods and maintenance, and, thus, can enhance maintenance performance obviously.

  16. Short-term secular change in height, body mass and Tanner-Whitehouse 3 skeletal maturity of Madeira youth, Portugal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freitas, Duarte; Malina, Robert M; Maia, José; Lefevre, Johan; Stasinopoulos, Mikis; Gouveia, Élvio; Claessens, Albrecht; Thomis, Martine; Lausen, Berthold

    2012-05-01

    Secular trends in height and weight are reasonably well documented in Europe. Corresponding observations for skeletal maturation are lacking. To assess secular trends in height, body mass and skeletal maturity of Portuguese children and adolescents and to provide updated reference values for skeletal maturity scores (SMSs). Data for 2856 children and adolescents of 4-17 years, 1412 boys and 1444 girls, from The 'Madeira Growth Study' (MGS; 1996-1998) and from the'Healthy Growth of Madeira Children Study' (CRES; 2006) were used. Height and body mass were measured. Skeletal maturity was assessed with the Tanner-Whitehouse 2 and 3 methods. Children from CRES were taller and heavier than peers from MGS. Differences in height reached 5.8 cm in boys and 5.5 cm in girls. RUS SMSs did not differ consistently between surveys boys, while higher RUS scores were observed in CRES girls. Adult RUS SMSs for MGS and CRES combined were attained at 15.8 years in boys and 14.8 years in girls. Corresponding ages for adult Carpal SMSs were 14.4 and 14.0, respectively. The short-term trends for height and mass were not entirely consistent with the trends in RUS and Carpal SMSs and SAs.

  17. Pseudo bulges in galaxy groups: the role of environment in secular evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mishra, Preetish K.; Wadadekar, Yogesh; Barway, Sudhanshu

    2017-01-01

    We examine the dependence of the fraction of galaxies containing pseudo bulges on environment for a flux limited sample of ˜5000 SDSS galaxies. We have separated bulges into classical and pseudo bulge categories based on their position on the Kormendy diagram. Pseudo bulges are thought to be formed by internal processes and are a result of secular evolution in galaxies. We attempt to understand the dependence of secular evolution on environment and morphology. Dividing our sample of disc+bulge galaxies based on group membership into three categories: central and satellite galaxies in groups and isolated field galaxies, we find that pseudo bulge fraction is almost equal for satellite and field galaxies. Fraction of pseudo bulge hosts in central galaxies is almost half of the fraction of pseudo bulges in satellite and field galaxies. This trend is also valid when only galaxies are considered only spirals or S0. Using the projected fifth nearest neighbour density as measure of local environment, we look for the dependence of pseudo bulge fraction on environmental density. Satellite and field galaxies show very weak or no dependence of pseudo bulge fraction on environment. However, fraction of pseudo bulges hosted by central galaxies decreases with increase in local environmental density. We do not find any dependence of pseudo bulge luminosity on environment. Our results suggest that the processes that differentiate the bulge types are a function of environment while processes responsible for the formation of pseudo bulges seem to be independent of environment.

  18. Pseudo bulges in galaxy groups: the role of environment in secular evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mishra, Preetish K.; Wadadekar, Yogesh; Barway, Sudhanshu

    2017-05-01

    We examine the dependence of the fraction of galaxies containing pseudo bulges on environment for a flux limited sample of ˜5000 galaxies from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS). We have separated bulges into classical and pseudo bulge categories based on their position on the Kormendy diagram. Pseudo bulges are thought to be formed by internal processes and are a result of secular evolution in galaxies. We attempt to understand the dependence of secular evolution on environment and morphology. Dividing our sample of disc + bulge galaxies based on group membership into three categories: central and satellite galaxies in groups and isolated field galaxies, we find that pseudo bulge fraction is almost equal for satellite and field galaxies. Fraction of pseudo bulge hosts in central galaxies is almost half of the fraction of pseudo bulges in satellite and field galaxies. This trend is also valid when only galaxies are considered only spirals or S0. Using the projected fifth nearest neighbour density as measure of local environment, we look for the dependence of pseudo bulge fraction on environmental density. Satellite and field galaxies show very weak or no dependence of pseudo bulge fraction on environment. However, fraction of pseudo bulges hosted by central galaxies decreases with increase in local environmental density. We do not find any dependence of pseudo bulge luminosity on environment. Our results suggest that the processes that differentiate the bulge types are a function of environment while processes responsible for the formation of pseudo bulges seem to be independent of environment.

  19. Familial resemblance in religiousness in a secular society

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hvidtjørn, Dorte; Petersen, Inge; Hjelmborg, Jacob

    2013-01-01

    generally considered more religious than the very secular northern European countries. Comparisons of the results are complicated by diverse definitions of religiousness, but several studies indicate that the influence of the family environment is most predominant in early life, whereas genetic influences...... increase with age. We performed a population-based twin study of religiousness in a secular society using data from a Web-based survey sent to 6,707 Danish twins born 1970-1989, who were identified in the Danish Twin Registry. We applied Fishman's three conceptual dimensions of religiousness: cognition...

  20. Secular variation curves of Mexico, progress, problems and needs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soler-Arechalde, A. M.

    2013-05-01

    Three cases of secular variation of Mexico will be analyzed. The first is the preliminary results of the record of the transition Bruhnes-Matuyama in a paleosol sequence. The second is the research of a rock shelter since late Pliocene-early Holocene to Posclassic (AD 900-1527). Finally the improvement of the first archaeomagnetic secular variation curve of Mesoamerica from 1973 to 2012 with the inclusion of new results like La Ciudadela and Teopancazco of Teotihuacan, Tlatelolco and Templo Mayor of Mexico City and Tula. Our results will be compared with previous records from lake sediments and volcanic rocks, the models available like CALS*K or other published curves.

  1. The conditions of believe and unbelieve in a secular Age

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan Manuel Cincunegui

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available In A Secular Age the Canadian philosopher Charles Taylor offered an analytical description and a genealogy of the current conditions of belief and unbelief in the North Atlantic contemporary societies. He encouraged as well a set of similar investigations in other cultural settings that are affected by the processes of modernization. He argues about the existence of ‘alternative modernities’ each one of them facing critically the univocal sociological theories of modernity and secularization that interpreted as universal the process of disenchantment occurred in the West and the setbacks with regard to the presence of religion in the public sphere and religious practice in some contemporary Western societies

  2. Approximate State Transition Matrix and Secular Orbit Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. P. Ramachandran

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The state transition matrix (STM is a part of the onboard orbit determination system. It is used to control the satellite’s orbital motion to a predefined reference orbit. Firstly in this paper a simple orbit model that captures the secular behavior of the orbital motion in the presence of all perturbation forces is derived. Next, an approximate STM to match the secular effects in the orbit due to oblate earth effect and later in the presence of all perturbation forces is derived. Numerical experiments are provided for illustration.

  3. Patronage and secularization: social obligation and church support.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruce, Steve

    2012-09-01

    As a contribution to our understanding of secularization in Britain, this paper examines the role of religious patronage. It illustrates nineteenth and early twentieth century support for the churches from rural landowners and major industrial employers, considers its benefits, and explains its rapid disappearance. The paper argues that the end of the expectation that high status individuals and major employers would actively promote organized religion is both significant evidence of secularization and a cause of further decline. © London School of Economics and Political Science 2012.

  4. An innovative statistical approach for analysing non-continuous variables in environmental monitoring: assessing temporal trends of TBT pollution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santos, José António; Galante-Oliveira, Susana; Barroso, Carlos

    2011-03-01

    The current work presents an innovative statistical approach to model ordinal variables in environmental monitoring studies. An ordinal variable has values that can only be compared as "less", "equal" or "greater" and it is not possible to have information about the size of the difference between two particular values. The example of ordinal variable under this study is the vas deferens sequence (VDS) used in imposex (superimposition of male sexual characters onto prosobranch females) field assessment programmes for monitoring tributyltin (TBT) pollution. The statistical methodology presented here is the ordered logit regression model. It assumes that the VDS is an ordinal variable whose values match up a process of imposex development that can be considered continuous in both biological and statistical senses and can be described by a latent non-observable continuous variable. This model was applied to the case study of Nucella lapillus imposex monitoring surveys conducted in the Portuguese coast between 2003 and 2008 to evaluate the temporal evolution of TBT pollution in this country. In order to produce more reliable conclusions, the proposed model includes covariates that may influence the imposex response besides TBT (e.g. the shell size). The model also provides an analysis of the environmental risk associated to TBT pollution by estimating the probability of the occurrence of females with VDS ≥ 2 in each year, according to OSPAR criteria. We consider that the proposed application of this statistical methodology has a great potential in environmental monitoring whenever there is the need to model variables that can only be assessed through an ordinal scale of values.

  5. Point and trend accuracy of a continuous intravenous microdialysis-based glucose-monitoring device in critically ill patients: a prospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leopold, J H; van Hooijdonk, R T M; Boshuizen, M; Winters, T; Bos, L D; Abu-Hanna, A; Hoek, A M T; Fischer, J C; van Dongen-Lases, E C; Schultz, M J

    2016-12-01

    Microdialysis is a well-established technology that can be used for continuous blood glucose monitoring. We determined point and trend accuracy, and reliability of a microdialysis-based continuous blood glucose-monitoring device (EIRUS(®)) in critically ill patients. Prospective study involving patients with an expected intensive care unit stay of ≥48 h. Every 15 min, device readings were compared with blood glucose values measured in arterial blood during blocks of 8 h per day for a maximum of 3 days. The Clarke error grid, Bland-Altman plot, mean absolute relative difference and glucose prediction error analysis were used to express point accuracy and the rate error grid to express trend accuracy. Reliability testing included aspects of the device and the external sensor, and the special central venous catheter (CVC) with a semipermeable membrane for use with this device. We collected 594 paired values in 12 patients (65 [26-80; 8-97] (median [IQR; total range]) paired values per patient). Point accuracy: 93.6 % of paired values were in zone A of the Clarke error grid, 6.4 % were in zone B; bias was 4.1 mg/dL with an upper limit of agreement of 28.6 mg/dL and a lower level of agreement of -20.5 mg/dL in the Bland-Altman analysis; 93.6 % of the values ≥75 mg/dL were within 20 % of the reference values in the glucose prediction error analysis; the mean absolute relative difference was 7.5 %. Trend accuracy: 96.4 % of the paired values were in zone A, and 3.3 and 0.3 % were in zone B and zone C of the rate error grid. Reliability: out of 16 sensors, 4 had to be replaced prematurely; out of 12 CVCs, two malfunctioned (one after unintentional flushing by unsupervised nurses of the ports connected to the internal microdialysis chamber, causing rupture of the semipermeable membrane; one for an unknown reason). Device start-up time was 58 [56-67] min; availability of real-time data was 100 % of the connection time. In this study in critically ill

  6. A web-based Italian survey of current trends, habits and beliefs in hemodynamic monitoring and management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biancofiore, Gianni; Cecconi, Maurizio; Rocca, Giorgio Della

    2015-10-01

    Significant evidence outlines that the management of the high-risk surgical patient with perioperative hemodynamic optimization leads to significant benefits. This study aimed at studying the current practice of hemodynamic monitoring and management of Italian anesthesiologists. An invitation to participate in a web-based survey was published on the web site of the Società Italiana di Anestesia Analgesia Rianimazione Terapia Intensiva. Overall, 478 questionnaires were completed. The most frequently used monitoring techniques was invasive blood pressure (94.1 %). Cardiac output was used in 41.3% of the cases mainly throughout less-invasive methods. When cardiac output was not monitored, the main reason given was that other surrogate techniques, mainly central venous oxygen saturation (40.5%). Written protocols concerning hemodynamic management in high-risk surgical patients were used by the 29.1% of the respondents. 6.3% of the respondents reported not to be aware if such document was available at their institution. 86.3% of the respondents reported that they usually optimize high risk patients but to use blood flow assessment rarely (39.7%). The most used parameter in clinical practice to assess the effects of volume loading were an increase in urine output and arterial blood pressure together with a decrease in heart rate and blood lactates. The 45.1% or the respondents outlined that hemodynamic optimization in the high risk patients is of major clinical value. Our study outlines an important gap between available evidence and clinical practice emphasizing the need for a better awareness, more information and knowledge on the specific topic.

  7. Loss and healing: A Marian pilgrimage in secular Dutch society

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Notermans, C.D.

    2007-01-01

    A pilgrimage to Lourdes, France, supported by health insurance, helps old and ailing Dutch people cope with the losses of growing old in secular Dutch society. Elderly people are very much in need of the churches that are disappearing, and with them the collective rituals and symbols that would help

  8. Inheritance of religiosity among Muslim immigrants in a secular society

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van De Pol, Jasper; Van Tubergen, Frank

    2014-01-01

    This study examined the intergenerational transmission of religiosity within Muslim immigrant families who live in the Netherlands, a rather secular society. We studied whether transmission of religiosity within immigrant families is influenced by warm family relations on the one hand, and integrati

  9. Six Understandings of the Word Spirituality in a Secular Country

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    la Cour, Peter; Ausker, Nadja Hørdam; Hvidt, Niels Christian

    2012-01-01

    inspiration in human activities. It is concluded that a common understanding of the term spirituality does not exist, at least in a modern secular setting. Suggestion for future research is that the term spirituality is not used without an indication, notions or keywords of what is meant by the term...

  10. Geomagnetic Secular Variation and Its Applications to the Core

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jackson, Andrew; Finlay, Chris

    2015-01-01

    We review the observational constraints on the morphology and evolution of the magnetic field of the Earth over the last few centuries; these changes are referred to as the secular variation.Starting with a description of the available sources of original observations of the field, we thendiscuss...

  11. Post-Secularism, Religious Knowledge and Religious Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carr, David

    2012-01-01

    Post-secularism seems to follow in the wake of other (what are here called) "postal" perspectives--post-structuralism, postmodernism, post-empiricism, post-positivism, post-analytical philosophy, post-foundationalism and so on--in questioning or repudiating what it takes to be the epistemic assumptions of "modernism." To be sure, post-secularism…

  12. Secular stagnation: the history of a macroeconomic heresy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R.E. Backhouse (Roger); M. Boianovsky (Mauro)

    2016-01-01

    textabstractThe paper presents a history of the concept of “secular stagnation”, from Alvin Hansen in the 1930s and 1940s to its recent revival by Larry Summers. We examine Hansen's ideas and those of young economists associated with him, notably Evsey Domar, Everett Hagen, Benjamin Higgins, Alan Sw

  13. Institutional Confidence in the United States: Attitudes of Secular Americans

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Isabella Kasselstrand

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available The First Amendment to the United States’ Constitution addresses freedom of religion and the separation of church and state. However, the historical influence of religion in laws, policies, and political representation have left secular individuals feeling excluded. At the same time, levels of confidence in social and political institutions in the United States are at an all-time low. This begs the question: Is there a relationship between secularity and confidence in various social and political institutions (e.g. the armed forces, churches, major companies, government, police, and political parties? This question is examined using data on the United States from the World Values Survey from 1995–2011. While controlling for a range of key demographics, the findings show a negative relationship between secularity and institutional confidence. More specifically, atheists and nonreligious individuals are less likely than those who are religious to have confidence in all six institutions. Based on previous literature and the empirical evidence presented in this study, we argue that overall lower levels of institutional confidence among secular Americans is an outcome of the exclusion of such individuals from American social life. Thus, it highlights the importance of addressing the stereotypes and prejudice that this minority group faces.

  14. The Meaning of Secularism in Contemporary French Education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beattie, Nicholas

    1979-01-01

    After defining three broad positions adopted in the long-standing French polemic about secularism and education, the author describes how traditional boundaries between conflicting positions have been blurred by interventionist policies in education as well as by the evolution of Catholic attitudes. He illustrates his comments from recent…

  15. Questioning Engelhardt's assumptions in Bioethics and Secular Humanism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmadi Nasab Emran, Shahram

    2016-06-01

    In Bioethics and Secular Humanism: The Search for a Common Morality, Tristram Engelhardt examines various possibilities of finding common ground for moral discourse among people from different traditions and concludes their futility. In this paper I will argue that many of the assumptions on which Engelhardt bases his conclusion about the impossibility of a content-full secular bioethics are problematic. By starting with the notion of moral strangers, there is no possibility, by definition, for a content-full moral discourse among moral strangers. It means that there is circularity in starting the inquiry with a definition of moral strangers, which implies that they do not share enough moral background or commitment to an authority to allow for reaching a moral agreement, and concluding that content-full morality is impossible among moral strangers. I argue that assuming traditions as solid and immutable structures that insulate people across their boundaries is problematic. Another questionable assumption in Engelhardt's work is the idea that religious and philosophical traditions provide content-full moralities. As the cardinal assumption in Engelhardt's review of the various alternatives for a content-full moral discourse among moral strangers, I analyze his foundationalist account of moral reasoning and knowledge and indicate the possibility of other ways of moral knowledge, besides the foundationalist one. Then, I examine Engelhardt's view concerning the futility of attempts at justifying a content-full secular bioethics, and indicate how the assumptions have shaped Engelhardt's critique of the alternatives for the possibility of content-full secular bioethics.

  16. Post-Secularism, Religious Knowledge and Religious Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carr, David

    2012-01-01

    Post-secularism seems to follow in the wake of other (what are here called) "postal" perspectives--post-structuralism, postmodernism, post-empiricism, post-positivism, post-analytical philosophy, post-foundationalism and so on--in questioning or repudiating what it takes to be the epistemic assumptions of "modernism." To be sure, post-secularism…

  17. Magnetic Navigation in Sea Turtles: Insights from Secular Variation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Putman, N. F.; Lohmann, K.

    2011-12-01

    Sea turtles are iconic migrants that posses a sensitive magnetic-sense that guides their long-distance movements in a variety of contexts. In the first few hours after hatching turtles use the magnetic field to maintain an offshore compass heading to reach deeper water, out of the reach of nearshore predators. Young turtles engage in directed swimming in response to regional magnetic fields that exist along their transoceanic migratory path. Older turtles also use magnetic information to relocate foraging sites and islands used for nesting after displacement. Numerous hypotheses have been put forth to explain how magnetic information functions in these movements, however, there is little consensus among animal navigation researchers. A particular vexing issue is how magnetic navigation can function under the constraints of the constant, gradual shifting of the earth's magnetic field (secular variation). Here, I present a framework based on models of recent geomagnetic secular variation to explore several navigational mechanisms proposed for sea turtles. I show that while examination of secular variation likely falsifies some hypothetical navigational strategies, it provides key insights into the selective pressures that could maintain other navigational mechanisms. Moreover, examination of secular variation's influence on the navigational precision in reproductive migrations of sea turtles offers compelling explanations for the population structure along sea turtle nesting beaches as well as spatiotemporal variation in nesting turtle abundance.

  18. Secular stagnation: the history of a macroeconomic heresy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R.E. Backhouse (Roger); M. Boianovsky (Mauro)

    2016-01-01

    textabstractThe paper presents a history of the concept of “secular stagnation”, from Alvin Hansen in the 1930s and 1940s to its recent revival by Larry Summers. We examine Hansen's ideas and those of young economists associated with him, notably Evsey Domar, Everett Hagen, Benjamin Higgins, Alan

  19. Social Boundaries and Secularism in the Lebanese Left

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Haugbølle, Sune

    2013-01-01

    This article explores the social meaning of boundaries in Lebanon through debates about secularism in and around the Lebanese Left. The aim is to elucidate the political and social meaning of ‘Left’ in a Lebanese context, and the positioning of liminal political subjectivity in a system organized...

  20. From tolerance to the secular State in Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Renata Tokrri

    2015-01-01

    Legal Italian tolerance experience has been for many years a condition for the cults other than Catholic. The Albertine Statute in 1848 welcomed it in the article 1, and it was the task of the new Constitution outlining the principles of a State not only secular but also pluralistic.

  1. SPR and SPR Imaging: Recent Trends in Developing Nanodevices for Detection and Real-Time Monitoring of Biomolecular Events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mihaela Puiu

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we review the underlying principles of the surface plasmon resonance (SPR technique, particularly emphasizing its advantages along with its limitations regarding the ability to discriminate between the specific binding response and the interfering effects from biological samples. While SPR sensors were developed almost three decades, SPR detection is not yet able to reduce the time-consuming steps of the analysis, and is hardly amenable for miniaturized, portable platforms required in point-of-care (POC testing. Recent advances in near-field optics have emerged, resulting in the development of SPR imaging (SPRi as a powerful optical, label-free monitoring tool for multiplexed detection and monitoring of biomolecular events. The microarrays design of the SPRi chips incorporating various metallic nanostructures make these optofluidic devices more suitable for diagnosis and near-patient testing than the traditional SPR sensors. The latest developments indicate SPRi detection as being the most promising surface plasmon-based technique fulfilling the demands for implementation in lab-on-a-chip (LOC technologies.

  2. Integrated Status and Effectiveness Monitoring Program, Entiat River Status and Trend Snorkel Surveys and Rotary Smolt Trap Operations in Nason Creek, March 2007 through March 2008.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Collins, Matthew; Jorgensen, John; Murdock, Keely

    2008-03-10

    The Integrated Status and Effectiveness Monitoring Program (ISEMP-BPA project No.2003-0017) has been created as a cost effective means of developing protocols and new technologies, novel indicators, sample designs, analytical, data management and communication tools and skills, and restoration experiments that support the development of a region-wide Research, Monitoring and Evaluation (RME) program to assess the status of anadromous salmonid populations, their tributary habitat and restoration and management actions. The most straightforward approach to developing a regional-scale monitoring and evaluation program would be to increase standardization among status and trend monitoring programs. However, the diversity of species and their habitat, as well as the overwhelming uncertainty surrounding indicators, metrics, and data interpretation methods, requires the testing of multiple approaches. Thus, the approach ISEMP has adopted is to develop a broad template that may differ in the details among subbasins, but one that will ultimately lead to the formation of a unified RME process for the management of anadromous salmonid populations and habitat across the Columbia River Basin. ISEMP has been initiated in three pilot subbasins, the Wenatchee/Entiat, John Day, and Salmon. To balance replicating experimental approaches with the goal of developing monitoring and evaluation tools that apply as broadly as possible across the Pacific Northwest, these subbasins were chosen as representative of a wide range of potential challenges and conditions, e.g., differing fish species composition and life histories, ecoregions, institutional settings, and existing data. ISEMP has constructed a framework that builds on current status and trend monitoring infrastructures in these pilot subbasins, but challenges current programs by testing alternative monitoring approaches. In addition, the ISEMP is: (1) Collecting information over a hierarchy of spatial scales, allowing for a

  3. 出生缺陷监测现状、疾病谱变化趋势与监测方法探讨%Birth defect monitoring status, disease spectrum change trend and methods of monitoring

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张杏敏; 吴红宇; 胡南

    2011-01-01

    目的 以扬州市2005年-2010年的出生缺陷监测结果为基础,阐述我国出生缺陷监测现状,为进一步探讨我国出生缺陷监测方法、干预措施等提供有效的的数据支持,从而提高出生缺陷监测研究水平.方法 总结扬州市2005年-2010年出生缺陷诊断分类及其变化趋势,探讨出生缺陷监测方法和统计口径.结果 先天性心脏病、小于28w治疗性引产数、出生缺陷诊断无法归类而列为“其它”三者呈上升趋势.结论 只有全面了解出生缺陷监测现状,准确统计出生缺陷发生率及其分类,才能有针对性地制订干预措施,更加有效地预防和减少出生缺陷.%Objective: Taking Yangzhou 2005 - 2010 years of birth defects monitoring results as the basis, elaborated our country of birth defects monitoring status and provided effective data support for the further study of Chinese birth defects monitoring methods, as well as improving birth defects surveillance study level. Methods: To sum up 2005 - 2010 years of birth defects diagnosis classification and changing trend of birth defects of Yangzhou city. Explore monitoring method and -statistical standards. Results: Congenital heart diseases, the number of less than 28 weeks abortion treatment, birth defects diagnosis as "others" which could not be explicitly classified show ascendant trend. Conclusion; Only a comprehensive understanding of birth defects monitoring status, the accurate statistics of the incidence of birth defects and its classification, can be targeted to develop interventions that more effectively prevent and reduce the incidence of birth defects.

  4. Trends in deforestation and forest degradation after a decade of monitoring in the Monarch Butterfly Biosphere Reserve in Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vidal, Omar; López-García, José; Rendón-Salinas, Eduardo

    2014-02-01

    We used aerial photographs, satellite images, and field surveys to monitor forest cover in the core zones of the Monarch Butterfly Biosphere Reserve in Mexico from 2001 to 2012. We used our data to assess the effectiveness of conservation actions that involved local, state, and federal authorities and community members (e.g., local landowners and private and civil organizations) in one of the world's most iconic protected areas. From 2001 through 2012, 1254 ha were deforested (i.e., cleared areas had social and economic problems remain, and they must be addressed to ensure the reserve's long-term conservation. The monarch butterfly (Danaus plexippus) overwintering colonies in Mexico-which engage in one of the longest known insect migrations-are threatened by deforestation, and a multistakeholder, regional, sustainable-development strategy is needed to protect the reserve.

  5. Recent Trends in Monitoring of European Water Framework Directive Priority Substances Using Micro-Sensors: A 2007–2009 Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicole Jaffrezic-Renault

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available This review discusses from a critical perspective the development of new sensors for the measurement of priority pollutants targeted in the E.U. Water Framework Directive. Significant advances are reported in the paper and their advantages and limitations are also discussed. Future perspectives in this area are also pointed out in the conclusions. This review covers publications appeared since December 2006 (the publication date of the Swift report. Among priority substances, sensors for monitoring the four WFD metals represent 81% of published papers. None of analyzed publications present a micro-sensor totally validated in laboratory, ready for tests under real conditions in the field. The researches are mainly focused on the sensing part of the micro-sensors. Nevertheless, the main factor limiting micro-sensor applications in the environment is the ruggedness of the receptor towards environmental conditions. This point constitutes the first technological obstacle to be overcome for any long-term field tests.

  6. 心电监护仪的最新进展及新技术应用%Development trends and new technology applications of ECG monitor

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王锋; 戚仕涛

    2013-01-01

    Objective: To track the latest trends and the new application technologies of ECG monitor. Methods: We studied the representation and frontier technology of major brands high-end ECG monitors from the aspects of operation mode, the parameter interface mode, information network functions and so on. Results: The mainstream brand of high-end monitors adopt touch screen operation; NIHON KOHDEN intelligent parameter interface technology is highly innovative; the Philips information monitor technology is in the leading position in the area of network functions. Conclusion: In the future, ECG monitor develops toward the direction of the full touchscreen, intelligent parameter interface, function networked; recently appeared technologies of reverse non-invasive blood pressure measurement technology, digital oximetry technology and others in ECG monitor improved relative parameters measurement function.%目的:了解和跟踪心电监护仪最新发展趋势,实现心电监护仪新技术的应用.方法:研究高端心电监护仪在操作方式、参数接口模式、信息网络功能等方面采用的代表性和前沿性技术.结果:主流品牌的高端监护仪采用了触摸屏操作技术;光电心电监护仪的智能参数接口技术具有很高的创新性;飞利浦的信息监护仪技术在网络功能方面处于领先地位.结论:未来心电监护仪将向着全屏触控、参数接口智能化及功能网络化方向发展;目前监测仪出现的逆向式无创血压测量技术以及数字式血氧测量等技术可提高监护仪参数测量的功能.

  7. Recent trends in non-invasive in situ techniques to monitor bacterial colonies in solid (model food

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria eMartinez Lobete

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Planktonic cells typically found in liquid systems, are routinely used for building predictive models or assessing the efficacy of food preserving technologies. However, freely suspended cells often show different susceptibility to environmental hurdles than colony cells in solid matrices. Limited oxygen, water and nutrient availability, metabolite accumulation and physical constraints due to cell immobilization in the matrix, are main factors affecting cell growth. Moreover, intra- and inter-colony interactions, as a consequence of the initial microbial load in solid systems, may affect microbial physiology. Predictive food microbiology approaches are moving towards a more realistic resemblance to food products, performing studies in structured solid systems instead of liquids. Since structured systems promote microbial cells to become immobilized and grow as colonies, it is essential to study the colony behaviour, not only for food safety assurance systems, but also for understanding cell physiology and optimizing food production processes in solid matrices. Traditionally, microbial dynamics in solid systems have been assessed with a macroscopic approach by applying invasive analytical techniques; for instance, viable plate counting, which yield information about overall population. In the last years, this approach is being substituted by more mechanistically-inspired ones at mesoscopic (colony and microscopic (cell levels. Therefore, non-invasive and in-situ monitoring is mandatory for a deeper insight into bacterial colony dynamics. Several methodologies that enable high-throughput data collection have been developed, such as microscopy-based techniques coupled with image analysis and OD–based measurements in microplate readers. This research paper provides an overview of non-invasive in-situ techniques to monitor bacterial colonies in solid (model food and emphasizes their advantages and inconveniences in terms of accuracy, performance

  8. Between Secularism/s: Islam and the Institutionalisation of Modern Higher Education in Mid-Nineteenth Century British India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qadir, Ali

    2013-01-01

    This paper problematises clean distinctions between secular and religious by tracing the history of modern higher education of Muslims in British colonial India. Grounded in the interpretive research tradition and with an empirical focus on the formative mid-nineteenth century, the article argues that relational notions between singular secularism…

  9. Between Secularism/s: Islam and the Institutionalisation of Modern Higher Education in Mid-Nineteenth Century British India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qadir, Ali

    2013-01-01

    This paper problematises clean distinctions between secular and religious by tracing the history of modern higher education of Muslims in British colonial India. Grounded in the interpretive research tradition and with an empirical focus on the formative mid-nineteenth century, the article argues that relational notions between singular secularism…

  10. Forty years trends in timing of pubertal growth spurt in 157,000 Danish school children

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aksglæde, Lise; Olsen, Lina Wøhlk; Sørensen, Thorkild I.A.;

    2008-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Entering puberty is an important milestone in reproductive life and secular changes in the timing of puberty may be an important indicator of the general reproductive health in a population. Too early puberty is associated with several psychosocial and health problems. The aim of our...... a secular trend towards earlier sexual maturation of Danish children born between 1930 and 1969. Only minor changes were observed in duration of puberty assessed by the difference in ages at OGS and PHV Udgivelsesdato: 2008...

  11. Trends in prevalence of clonorchiasis among patients in Heilongjiang province, Northeast China (2009-2012: implications for monitoring and control.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Su Han

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Clonorchiasis is an important zoonotic parasitic disease worldwide. Past estimates showed the prevalence increased based on studies undertaken ten years or more ago. However, control strategies, changing ecology and migration may have resulted to changes in the prevalence of clonorchiasis. The purpose of the present study was to analysis the prevalence and epidemiological characterisation of clonorchiasis in Heilongjiang Province, Northeast China. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A total of 4951 clinically suspected outpatients were examined from January 2009 to December 2012. Overall prevalence of clonorchiasis was 25.93% (1284/4951 by the combination strategy of the Kato-Katz technique (KK and enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA, with a significant increase from 22.53% in 2009 to 34.25% in 2012. Apart from Daxinganling city, clonorchiasis was reported throughout Heilongjiang Province and mainly along the Songhua River and Nen River basin, with an increased annual prevalence. The annual prevalence in men increased significantly in 2012 and was higher than that in women over 4 years. A similar pattern was seen for the annual infection rate in rural and urban areas. Farm labourers accounted for the majority of cases (65.93%, with a higher prevalence than in other occupations. Consumption of freshwater fish was considered the strongest risk factor of clonorchiasis. The infection rates in the 40-49 and 50-59 years age groups showed a significant increasing trend in 2012. Cases of re-infection were common. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The present study revealed that clonorchiasis remained widespread and prevalent in Heilongjiang Province. An integrated control programme is urgently needed to reduce the public health impact of clonorchiasis in this endemic area.

  12. Evaluation of secular trend and the existence of cases of clusters of bladder cancer in Goiania: descriptive study population-based; Avaliacao da tendencia temporal e da existencia de casos de clusters de cancer de bexiga em Goiania: estudo descritivo de base populacional

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Antonio, Gisele Guimaraes Daflon

    2008-07-01

    More than 20 years after the radiological accident with cesium-137 in the city of Goiania, there is still a feeling in local population that the number of cases of cancer in the city is growing up due to the past radiation exposure and that the number of people contaminated or exposed was higher than the number reported. The present study aims to evaluate the temporal trend and the space-time distribution of bladder cancer cases in Goiania from 1988 and 2003, taking into account that bladder cancer presents the highest risk coefficients per unit of radiation dose among solid cancers. The study population was composed of all incident cases of bladder cancer registered in the Population-Based Cancer Registry of Goiania, between 1988 and 2003.Temporal trend of bladder cancer incidence was analyzed by sex and age groups ( < 60 and {>=} 60 years of age) through polynomial regression using age standardized incidence rates of bladder cancer (world population). SaTscan was used to determine whether statistical significant geographic clusters of high incidence of bladder cancer cases can be located in the city. The results showed a significant increase of bladder cancer incidence rates in males of all ages (p= 0.025) and for age group higher or equal to 60 years old (p=O.022), and a stability in trends for female sex. In the space-time analysis, a cluster was identified, however without statistical significance (p=0.278) and its location has no relationship with the main focuses of contamination of the radiological accident in 1987. We concluded that, despite of the increase of incidence rates in males, this can be explained by the improvement in diagnostic procedures throughout time, being this increase still not perceived in females considering the small number of cases. As chance can not be ruled out as the explanation of the identified cluster, we do not suggest any further detailed investigation in this cluster, as the occurrence of cluster diseases in space can occur

  13. Passive sampling of wastewater as a tool for the long-term monitoring of community exposure: Illicit and prescription drug trends as a proof of concept.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baz-Lomba, J A; Harman, Christopher; Reid, Malcolm; Thomas, Kevin V

    2017-09-15

    A passive sampling device, the Polar Organic Chemical Integrative Sampler (POCIS), was calibrated in-situ over a 4-week period in Oslo (Norway) for 10 illicit drugs and pharmaceuticals with the goal of developing an approach for monitoring long-term wastewater drug loads. The calibrations were performed in triplicate using three different overlapping calibration sets under changing environmental conditions that allowed the uncertainty of the sampling rates to be evaluated. All 10 compounds exhibited linear uptake kinetics and provided sampling rates of between 0.023 and 0.192 L d(-1). POCIS were deployed for consecutive 2-week periods during 2012 and 2013 and the calculated time-weighted average (TWA) concentrations used to define different drug use trends. The relative uncertainty related to the POCIS data was approximately 40% and, except for citalopram, 85% of all the long-term measurements of pharmaceuticals were within the confidence interval levels calculated to evaluate the effects of changing environmental conditions on the TWA estimations. POCIS was demonstrated to be sufficiently robust to provide reliable annual drug use estimates with a smaller number of samplers (n = 24) than recommended for active sampling (n = 56) within an acceptable level of sample size related uncertainty POCIS is demonstrated to be a valuable and reliable tool for the long-term monitoring of certain drugs and pharmaceuticals within a defined population. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Multiculturalism and secularism: Theoretical understandings and possible conflicts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lægaard, Sune

    2017-01-01

    Multiculturalism in a European context increasingly has come to denote a concern with religious minorities. Claims for multicultural accommodation of minorities therefore potentially conflict with secularist requirements of separation of politics and religion. Whether there is a conflict depends ....... But the frameworks also indicate that conflicts are not general or necessarily fundamental, and they provide tools for reinterpreting conceptions in ways that might avoid apparent conflicts.......Multiculturalism in a European context increasingly has come to denote a concern with religious minorities. Claims for multicultural accommodation of minorities therefore potentially conflict with secularist requirements of separation of politics and religion. Whether there is a conflict depends...... on the general understandings of multiculturalism and secularism. The paper therefore distinguishes and examines different general understandings. Both multiculturalism and secularism can be understood as sets of policies, or as forms of minority accommodation or views about the relationship between religion...

  15. Why religion deserves a place in secular medicine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biggar, Nigel

    2015-03-01

    As a science and practice transcending metaphysical and ethical disagreements, 'secular' medicine should not exist. 'Secularity' should be understood in an Augustinian sense, not a secularist one: not as a space that is universally rational because it is religion-free, but as a forum for the negotiation of rival reasonings. Religion deserves a place here, because it is not simply or uniquely irrational. However, in assuming his rightful place, the religious believer commits himself to eschewing sheer appeals to religious authorities, and to adopting reasonable means of persuasion. This can come quite naturally. For example, Christianity (theo)logically obliges liberal manners in negotiating ethical controversies in medicine. It also offers reasoned views of human being and ethics that bear upon medicine and are not universally held-for example, a humanist view of human dignity, the bounding of individual autonomy by social obligation, and a special concern for the weak.

  16. New evidence of a fast secular variation of the geomagnetic field 1000 BCE: archaeomagnetic study of Bavarian potteries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hervé, G.; Gilder, S.; Fassbinder, J.; Metzler-Nebelsick, C.; Schnepp, E.; Geisweid, L.; Putz, A.; Reuss, S.; Riedel, G.; Westhausen, I.; Wittenborn, F.

    2016-12-01

    This study presents new archaeointensity results obtained on 350 pottery sherds from 45 graves and pits from 12 sites around Munich (Germany). The features are dated between 1400 and 400 BCE by ceramic and metallic artifacts, radiocarbon and dendrochronology. We collected only red- or partly red-colored sherds in order to minimize mineralogical alteration during laboratory experiments. Rock magnetism analyses show that the remanent magnetization is mainly carried by titanomagnetite. Archaeointensities were determined using the Thellier-Thellier protocol with corrections of TRM anisotropy and cooling rate on one to three specimens per sherd. The experiments were completed using Triaxe and multispecimen (MSP-DSC) methods. Around 60 per cent of the sherds provide reliable results, allowing the computation of 35 mean archaeointensity values. This quadruples the number of previously published data in Western Europe. The secular variation of the geomagnetic field strength is low from 1400 to 1200 BCE with intensities close to 50 µT then the intensity increased to 70 µT around 1000-900 BCE. After a minimum 50 µT near 750 BCE, the intensity increased again to 90 µT at 650 BCE. This high secular variation rate (0.4 µT/year) is especially apparent in the sherds from a fountain dated between 750 and 650 BCE. Next, the intensity remained high until 400 BCE before rapidly decreasing to 200 BCE. As the sharp change in geomagnetic direction around 800 BCE is not contemporaneous with an intensity high, this period is probably not characterized by an archaeomagnetic jerk. The trend of secular variation with two intensity maxima is similar to the one observed in the Near East. The Virtual Axial Dipole Moments of the two regions are approximately the same after 700 BCE, but before they are systematically 1-2 × 1022 Am2 higher in the Near East. This difference may be a further proof of a geomagnetic field anomaly in this area 1000 BCE, yet there is no evidence for a geomagnetic

  17. Religion, secular medicine and utilitarianism: a response to Biggar.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Kevin R

    2015-11-01

    Nigel Biggar has argued that religion ought to be given a seat at the negotiating table of medical ethics. I respond in broadly utilitarian terms, arguing that the flawed empirical basis, lack of rationality and non-universality inherent in religion disqualify it from ethical discourse. I conclude that while it would be unacceptable to attempt to debar religious individuals from the negotiating table, an exclusively secular approach is required for ethical decision making in medicine.

  18. Secularization of Religion in In the Beauty of the Lilies

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    赵然

    2016-01-01

    With the change of social structure, especially the appearance of consumer society, the Protestant ethics and religious spirit of industriousness and continence gradually disintegrates. The collapse of the institutional religion and the transformation of conventional Christian belief is a chronic disease of American society and is also the basic reason which creates predicament for the souls of ordinary Americans. The characters in Updike’s novel Lilies attempt to seek one sort of balance between the sacred world and the secular life.

  19. Constitutionalizing secularism, alternative secularisms or liberal-democratic constitutionalism?A critical reading of some Turkish, ECtHR and Indian Supreme Court cases on ‘secularism’

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Veit Bader

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available In recent debates on the constitutional status of 'secularism' we can discern three positions. The first tries to overcome the absence of 'secularism' in most liberal-democratic constitutions by developing a more robust theory of constitutional secularism. The second develops theories of 'alternative secularisms'. The third, defended in this article, argues that we should drop secularism as a 'cacophonous' concept from our constitutional and legal language and replace it by liberal-democratic constitutionalism. I develop an analytical taxonomy of twelve different meanings of 'secularism' based on a comparative study of Turkish and Indian Supreme Court cases on secularism, and demonstrate that they are incompatible with each other and with the hard core of liberal-democratic constitutions. Next, I criticize the respective rulings in the Turkish and Indian context. Particularly in 'militant democracies', the appeal to a principle of 'secularism' turns out to be inimical to the liberal and to the democratic 'constitutional essentials'. I end with some normative recommendations on the role of constitutional review and judicial activism.

  20. Increasing prevalence of extended-spectrum-betalactamase among Gram-negative bacilli in Latin America: 2008 update from the Study for Monitoring Antimicrobial Resistance Trends (SMART

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    Maria Virginia Villegas

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVES: This analysis of the Study for Monitoring Antimicrobial Resistance Trends (SMART evaluated the susceptibility patterns of Enterobacteriaceae in Latin America in 2008, with emphasis on susceptibility trends of E. coli and K. pneumoniae. METHODS: Clinical isolates were recovered from intra-abdominal infections (IAI from 23 centers in 10 Latin American countries. Isolates were sent to a central laboratory for confirmation of identification, antimicrobial susceptibility and ESBL testing, following the Clinical Laboratory Standards Institute (CLSI guidelines. RESULTS: Of 1,003 Gram-negative bacilli collected from intra-abdominal infections, E. coli and K. pneumoniae were the most commonly isolated organisms, and 26.8% of E. coli and 37.7% of K. pneumoniae were ESBL positive. Ertapenem and imipenem were the most consistently active agents tested; 99% of ESBLpositive E. coli isolates were susceptible to ertapenem and 100% to imipenem as well, and 91% of ESBL-positive K. pneumoniae were susceptible to ertapenem and 98% to imipenem. Quinolones and cephalosporins were less active, achieving 1.5% to 76% inhibition against ESBL-producing E. coli and 3.5% to 61% inhibition against K. pneumoniae. CONCLUSIONS: Local and unit-specific surveillance data is particularly important for selection of empiric therapy and in community-acquired infections as they can help the clinician with antibiotic selection by providing guidance regarding the likely pathogens and their resistance profiles. Our data also confirm the increasing frequency with which ESBL-producing organisms are found in the community setting, with 31.4% of communityacquired and 24.9% of hospital-acquired infections found to produce ESBLs. Imipenem and ertapenem are the most active agents tested for ESBL-positive E. coli and K. pneumoniae.

  1. Trends analyses of 30 years of ambient 8 hour ozone and precursor monitoring data in the South Central U.S.: progress and challenges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sather, Mark E; Cavender, Kevin

    2016-07-13

    In the last 30 years ambient ozone concentrations have notably decreased in the South Central U.S. Yet, current ambient ozone concentrations measured over the past three years 2013-2015 in this area of the U.S. are not meeting the U.S. 2015 8 hour ozone standard of 70 parts per billion (ppb). This paper provides an update on long-term trends analyses of ambient 8 hour ozone and ozone precursor monitoring data collected over the past 30 years (1986-2015) in four South Central U.S. cities, following up on two previously published reviews of 20 and 25 year trends for these cities. All four cities have benefitted from national ozone precursor controls put in place during the 1990s and 2000s involving cleaner vehicles (vehicle fleet turnover/replacement over time), cleaner fuels, cleaner gasoline and diesel engines, and improved inspection/maintenance programs for existing vehicles. Additional ozone precursor emission controls specific to each city are detailed in this paper. The controls have resulted in impressive ambient ozone and ambient ozone precursor concentration reductions in the four South Central U.S. cities over the past 30 years, including 31-70% ambient nitrogen oxides (NOx) concentration declines from historical peaks to the present, 43-72% volatile organic compound (VOC) concentration declines from historical peaks to the present, a related 45-76% VOC reactivity decline for a subset of VOC species from historical peaks to the present, and an 18-38 ppb reduction in city 8 hour ozone design value concentrations. A new challenge for each of the four South Central U.S. cities will be meeting the U.S. 2015 8 hour ozone standard of 70 ppb.

  2. Satellite-Based Tropospheric NO2 Column Trends in the Last 10 Years Over Mexican Urban Areas Measured by the Ozone Monitoring Instrument

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rivera, C. I.; Stremme, W.; Grutter, M.

    2015-12-01

    Population density and economic activities in urban agglomerations have drastically increased in many cities in Mexico during the last decade. Several factors are responsible for increased urbanization such as a shift of people from rural to urban areas while looking for better education, services and job opportunities as well as the natural growth of the urban areas themselves. Urbanization can create great social, economic and environmental pressures and changes which can easily be observed in most urban agglomerations in the world. In this study, we have focused on analyzing tropospheric NO2 (nitrogen dioxide) column trends over Mexican urban areas that have a population of at least one million inhabitants according to the latest 2010 population census. Differential Optical Absorption Spectroscopy (DOAS) measurements of NO2 conducted by the space-borne Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) on board the Aura satellite between 2005 and 2014 have been used for this analysis. This dataset has allowed us to obtain a satellite-based 10-year tropospheric NO2 column trend over the most populated Mexican cities which include the dominating metropolitan area of Mexico City with more than twenty million inhabitants as well as ten other Mexican cities with a population ranging between one to five million inhabitants with a wide range of activities (commercial, agricultural or heavily industrialized) as well as two important border crossings. Distribution maps of tropospheric NO2 columns above the studied urban agglomerations were reconstructed from the analyzed OMI dataset, allowing to identify areas of interest due to clear NO2 enhancements inside these urban regions.

  3. Increasing prevalence of extended-spectrum-betalactamase among Gram-negative bacilli in Latin America: 2008 update from the Study for Monitoring Antimicrobial Resistance Trends (SMART

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Virginia Villegas

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVES: This analysis of the Study for Monitoring Antimicrobial Resistance Trends (SMART evaluated the susceptibility patterns of Enterobacteriaceae in Latin America in 2008, with emphasis on susceptibility trends of E. coli and K. pneumoniae. METHODS: Clinical isolates were recovered from intra-abdominal infections (IAI from 23 centers in 10 Latin American countries. Isolates were sent to a central laboratory for confirmation of identification, antimicrobial susceptibility and ESBL testing, following the Clinical Laboratory Standards Institute (CLSI guidelines. RESULTS: Of 1,003 Gram-negative bacilli collected from intra-abdominal infections, E. coli and K. pneumoniae were the most commonly isolated organisms, and 26.8% of E. coli and 37.7% of K. pneumoniae were ESBL positive. Ertapenem and imipenem were the most consistently active agents tested; 99% of ESBLpositive E. coli isolates were susceptible to ertapenem and 100% to imipenem as well, and 91% of ESBL-positive K. pneumoniae were susceptible to ertapenem and 98% to imipenem. Quinolones and cephalosporins were less active, achieving 1.5% to 76% inhibition against ESBL-producing E. coli and 3.5% to 61% inhibition against K. pneumoniae. CONCLUSIONS: Local and unit-specific surveillance data is particularly important for selection of empiric therapy and in community-acquired infections as they can help the clinician with antibiotic selection by providing guidance regarding the likely pathogens and their resistance profiles. Our data also confirm the increasing frequency with which ESBL-producing organisms are found in the community setting, with 31.4% of communityacquired and 24.9% of hospital-acquired infections found to produce ESBLs. Imipenem and ertapenem are the most active agents tested for ESBL-positive E. coli and K. pneumoniae.

  4. There is a Sexular Body: Introducing a Material Approach to the Secular

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jelle Wiering

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available This article calls for more ‘bottom-up inquiry’ into the secular, departing from the assumption that it features normative ideologies and practices that dominate current societies. I plea for collecting and analyzing manifestations of the secular, as the secular as an phenomenon in society is surprisingly unexplored. To stimulate such inquiry, I suggest a material approach to the secular, as it will provide researchers with tools to conduct empirical research on the secular in contemporary societies. Inspired by Joan Scott, Charles Hirschkind, and Talal Asad, this article explores the notion of a Dutch ‘sexular’ body: a body which affective-gestural repertoires, limited here to the context of sexuality, people in society (historically associate with the secular. I conclude by arguing that a material approach to the secular will contribute to (1 obtaining a more comprehensive understanding of the secular, including its cultural conceptualizations and manifestations, and (2 clarifying, and hence facing the normativity the secular imposes on the people living in secular societies.

  5. Geomagnetic Secular Variation Prediction with Thermal Heterogeneous Boundary Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuang, Weijia; Tangborn, Andrew; Jiang, Weiyuan

    2011-01-01

    It has long been conjectured that thermal heterogeneity at the core-mantle boundary (CMB) affects the geodynamo substantially. The observed two pairs of steady and strong magnetic flux lobes near the Polar Regions and the low secular variation in the Pacific over the past 400 years (and perhaps longer) are likely the consequences of this CMB thermal heterogeneity. There are several studies on the impact of the thermal heterogeneity with numerical geodynamo simulations. However, direct correlation between the numerical results and the observations is found very difficult, except qualitative comparisons of certain features in the radial component of the magnetic field at the CMB. This makes it difficult to assess accurately the impact of thermal heterogeneity on the geodynamo and the geomagnetic secular variation. We revisit this problem with our MoSST_DAS system in which geomagnetic data are assimilated with our geodynamo model to predict geomagnetic secular variations. In this study, we implement a heterogeneous heat flux across the CMB that is chosen based on the seismic tomography of the lowermost mantle. The amplitude of the heat flux (relative to the mean heat flux across the CMB) varies in the simulation. With these assimilation studies, we will examine the influences of the heterogeneity on the forecast accuracies, e.g. the accuracies as functions of the heterogeneity amplitude. With these, we could be able to assess the model errors to the true core state, and thus the thermal heterogeneity in geodynamo modeling.

  6. Study and application of the resonant secular dynamics beyond Neptune

    CERN Document Server

    Saillenfest, Melaine; Tommei, Giacomo; Valsecchi, Giovanni B

    2016-01-01

    We use a secular representation to describe the long-term dynamics of transneptunian objects in mean-motion resonance with Neptune. The model applied is thoroughly described in Saillenfest et al. (2016). The parameter space is systematically explored, showing that the secular trajectories depend little on the resonance order. High-amplitude oscillations of the perihelion distance are reported and localised in the space of the orbital parameters. In particular, we show that a large perihelion distance is not a sufficient criterion to declare that an object is detached from the planets. Such a mechanism, though, is found unable to explain the orbits of Sedna or 2012VP113, which are insufficiently inclined (considering their high perihelion distance) to be possibly driven by such a resonant dynamics. The secular representation highlights the existence of a high-perihelion accumulation zone due to resonances of type 1:k with Neptune. That region is found to be located roughly at semi-major axes in [100;300] AU, p...

  7. Democracy and secularism: remarks on an ongoing dispute

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luiz Bernardo Leite Araujo

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available http://dx.doi.org/10.5007/1677-2954.2014v13n1p141This paper focus on the disputed issue concerning the proper role of religion in politics, confronting the contributions of three major contemporary political thinkers about democracy and secularism. I present, first, Charles Taylor’s characterization of secularist regimes as attempts to secure the basic principles of the modern moral order. Next, I argue that John Rawls’s growing interest in the relation between religion and democracy led him to an even more inclusive view of public reason. Thirdly, I show that Jürgen Habermas preserves a distinction between faith and knowledge that proves essential to grasping the debate over the place of religion in the public sphere. All three thinkers are concerned with the appropriate forum for the basic political language of the secular state. In a nutshell, my interpretation highlights a much greater proximity between Habermas and Rawls on political justification, on the one hand, and between the former and Taylor regarding the normative basis for the secular state, on the other hand, than their various interventions seem to indicate.

  8. Cognitive dissonance between religious and secular social attitudes

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    Marković Jelena

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available The initial finding of the study, which served as the basis for the exploration of cognitive dissonance between religious and secular behavioral norms, was revealed in a tendency of the majority of religious students to accept behavioral norms, attitudes and believes (concerning interpersonal relationships and reproduction-related ethical issues which are not supported by Orthodox Christian Church viewpoint and teachings. However, certain cognitive and value system consistency appeared to exist: the intensity of religiousness was related to lower degrees of secular norms approval. It has been found that religious and nonreligious subjects differ significantly in their preference of the strategy used to maintain balance between dissonant religious and secular attitudes- in 3 out of 4 issues considered in the study. Religious subjects most frequently chose relativism strategy, claiming that some specific exceptions from a general rule or standpoint do not necessarily depreciate it, while nonreligious subjects most frequently chose dualistic viewpoint that principally separated and restricted domains of reasoning on spiritual and worldly issues, making them psychologically irrelevant to one another.

  9. Bifurcations of lunisolar secular resonances for space debris orbits

    CERN Document Server

    Celletti, Alessandra; Pucacco, Giuseppe

    2015-01-01

    Using bifurcation theory, we study the secular resonances induced by Sun and Moon on space debris orbits around the Earth. In particular, we concentrate on a special class of secular resonances, which depends just on the debris' orbital inclination. This class is typically subdivided into three distinct types of secular resonances: those occurring at the critical inclination, those corresponding to polar orbits and a third type resulting from a linear combination of the rates of variation of the argument of perigee and the longitude of the ascending node. The model describing the dynamics of space debris includes the effects of the geopotential, as well as Sun's and Moon's attractions, and it is defined in terms of suitable action-angle variables. We consider the system averaged over both the mean anomaly of the debris and those of Sun and Moon. Such multiply-averaged Hamiltonian is used to study the lunisolar resonances which depend just on the inclination. Borrowing the technique from the theory of bifurcat...

  10. [Secular bioethics and religious bioethics. Keys to a contemporary argument].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Díaz de Terán Velasco, M Cruz

    2012-01-01

    Within the context of the contemporary plural debate, it is common to use the adjective secular as if it were the only manner to participate in the bioethical debate of Western multi-ethnic society. This situation gives rise to the question of whether there can be a religious contribution to the current bioethical debate. There are two possible answers. The first, an affirmative one, is centered on the fact that contemporary society is characterized by pluralistic and secular values on which is based the obligations of its members, defined by consensus through democratic procedures. In this context, religious contribution, as something from the private sphere, must be excluded. The alternative response to our central question may be negative, based on the assertion that human beings are identified as members of different value systems, many of them imbued with religious elements. From this point of view, the religious phenomenon would be one of the most important elements in the debate on cultural pluralism, because it guides, and serves as an inspiration of our conduct. This article aims to answer our central question by analyzing each of the two possible positions. The article is divided into two sections; the first analyses the significance of the term secular when it is employed in the sphere of bioethics and the second examines whether, within the scope of democratic societies, the current religious contribution to the bioethics debate has any legitimacy. The article ends with some conclusions.

  11. Evolução de condicionantes socioeconômicas da saúde na infância na cidade de São Paulo (1984-1996 Secular trends in socioeconomic determinants of child health in S. Paulo city, Brazil (1984-1996

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    Carlos Augusto Monteiro

    2000-12-01

    Full Text Available OBJETIVO: Descrever a evolução de condicionantes socioeconômicas da saúde na infância, com base nas informações extraídas de dois inquéritos domiciliares realizados nos anos de 1984/85 e 1995/96, na cidade de São Paulo, SP. MÉTODOS: Foram estudadas amostras probabilísticas da população entre zero e 59 meses de idade: 1.016 crianças em 1984/85 e 1.280 crianças em 1995/96. Os inquéritos apuraram a renda per capita mensal das famílias e o número de anos de escolaridade das mães das crianças. As rendas nominais foram deflacionadas segundo o Índice Nacional de Preços ao Consumidor e expressas em valores de outubro de 1996. RESULTADOS: Embora os indicadores socioeconômicos apurados no último inquérito ainda estejam muito distantes da situação ideal, a média da renda familiar dobra entre os inquéritos e a escolaridade materna aumenta em 1,5 anos. Rendas inferiores a meio salário-mínimo per capita são reduzidas à metade e virtualmente desaparece o analfabetismo materno. Ainda assim, intensifica-se no período a concentração da renda. CONCLUSÕES: Os aumentos de renda e de escolaridade são superiores aos relatados para a população brasileira em geral, o que poderia decorrer de declínios seletivos da fecundidade nos estratos mais pobres da população de São Paulo. A influência das mudanças na renda familiar e na escolaridade materna sobre a evolução de diferentes indicadores do estado de saúde das crianças da cidade é examinada em artigos subseqüentes.OBJECTIVE: Two consecutive household surveys undertaken in the mid-80s and mid-90s in the city of S. Paulo, Brazil, made possible to establish time trends of several child health determinants and indicators as well as to analyse the relationships among them. The study intends to report trends in socioeconomic determinants of child health. METHODS: Random samples of the population aged from zero to 59 months were studied: 1,016 children in the period 1984

  12. Evolução de condicionantes ambientais da saúde na infância na cidade de São Paulo (1984-1996 Secular trends in environmental determinants of child health in S. Paulo city, Brazil (1984-1996

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos Augusto Monteiro

    2000-12-01

    influência que mudanças em condições ambientais podem ter exercido sobre a evolução de diferentes indicadores do estado de saúde das crianças da cidade é examinada em artigos subseqüentes.OBJECTIVE: Two consecutive household surveys undertaken in mid-80s and mid-90s in the city of S. Paulo Brazil, made possible to establish time trends of several child health determinants and indicators as well as to analyse the relationships among them. The study intends to report trends in environmental determinants of child health. METHODS: Random samples of the population aged from zero to 59 months were studied: 1,016 children in the period of 1984-85 and 1,280 children in 1995-96. Both surveys investigated several housing characteristics -- materials used in the building, size, occupation density, existence of shower, toilet, running water in the kitchen, and the presence of smoker dwellers -- as well as access to water supply, sewage, garbage disposal and pavement of public areas. RESULTS: Improvements from mid-80s to mid-90s are observed regarding both housing characteristics and the implementation of basic services public services. The only indicator showing no improvement was the proportion of children living in slums, near 12% in both surveys. However, housing characteristics in slums showed an impressive improvement in the period between the surveys as well as the access of this population to water supply and garbage disposal services. CONCLUSIONS: Improvements in housing characteristics are consistent with increases in the purchasing power reported in the same period. The expansion of public basic services resulted from both public investments and a significant reduction in population growth. The noticeable increase in the coverage of water supply and garbage disposal in the slums indicates a more equitable delivery of the basic services. The same trend was not seen regarding sewage and street paving, which are not widespread in slum areas. The influence that

  13. 高速公路监控系统现状及发展趋势%Status Quo and Development Trend of the Highway Monitoring System

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    穆塔巴尔·木合塔尔

    2015-01-01

    高速公路是我国公路交通步入现代化的重要标志,甚至直接成为当前我国国民经济发展的必要性基础设施,并且对人们日常生活和工作也变得越来越重要.而为了能够提升高速公路运行的可靠性及安全性,相应的监控系统开始被应用在高速公路当中,监控系统的运用直接促使了告诉公路正常稳定的运行,因此起到非常关键的作用.文章主要针对高速公路监控系统的现状进行分析,并对其未来的发展趋势进行展望,通过简要论述的方式以供参考.%Highway is important sign of road trafifc into the modernization of China, or even directly into the development of national economy in our country the necessary infrastructure, and on people's daily life and work has become more and more important. And in order to improve the reliability and safety of the operation of highway, the corresponding control system began to be applied in highway, the use of monitoring system directly contributed to the told highway normal stable operation and therefore plays a very important role. This paper mainly analyzes the present situation of the highway monitoring system, and gives a prospect of its future development trend.

  14. Turning population trend monitoring into active conservation: Can we save the cascades frog (Rang cascadae) in the Lassen Region of California?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fellers, G.M.; Pope, K.L.; Stead, J.E.; Koo, M.S.; Welsh, W.H.

    2008-01-01

    Monitoring the distribution, population size, and trends of declining species is necessary to evaluate their vulnerability to extinction. It is the responsibility of scientists to alert management professionals of the need for preemptive action if a species approaches imminent, regional extirpation. This is the case with Rana cascadae (Cascades Frog) populations near Lassen Peak From 1993 to 2007, we conducted 1,873 amphibian surveys at 856 sites within Lassen Volcanic National Park and Lassen National Forest, California, USA. These surveys encompassed all R. cascadae habitats: ponds, lakes, meadows, and streams on those lands. We found frogs at only six sites during 14 years of surveys, and obtained one report of a single frog at one additional locality. These sites represented 12 years. Causes for the decline remain unclear, but introduced trout, disease, and pesticides are likely factors. We recommend that (1) additional protection for R. cascadae within 50 km of Lassen Peak; (2) investigation of the genetics of R. cascadae in California; (3) research into the role of possible causative factors in these declines; and (4) implementation of a feasibility study to captive breed and reintroduce R. cascadae in the Lassen area. Copyright ?? 2008. Gary Fellers. All rights reserved.

  15. [Secular changes on the morphological development and nutrition status of Tibetan students from 1985 to 2005].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Jun; Wu, Shuang-sheng; Zhou, Xue-lei; Yang, Sheng-yuan; Tsren, Dorje; He, Jun; Ye, Teng-chun

    2009-10-01

    To study the secular changes on both morphological development and nutritional status among Tibetan students, from 1985 to 2005. Data from the Chinese national survey on students' physical fitness and health in 1985, 1995, 2000 and 2005 were used to analyze and find out the difference of the morphological development and nutrition status of Tibetan students aged 7 - 18 years in different years. From 1985 to 2005, the height and weight of Tibetan students had a growing trend. The height and weight of schoolboys and schoolgirls aged 7 - 18 years increased 3.94 cm, 5.08 kg, 2.25 cm, and 4.24 kg respectively, while the circumference decreased without significance. The prevalence rates of underweight and malnutrition in Tibetan students further went down along with the improvement of their nutritional status. However, the prevalence rates on both overweight and obesity increased continuously, affecting the health status of Tibetan students. From 1985 to 2005, the morphological development of Tibetan students had a growing trend and their nutrition status improved. However, the prevalence of overweight and obesity continuously increased.

  16. Secular State and Religious Society: Two Forces in Play in Turkey

    OpenAIRE

    Somer, Murat

    2013-01-01

    1 Review Essay Secular State and Religious Society: Two Forces in Play in Turkey. Berna Turam, ed. New York: Palgrave, 2012. $ 85.00 cloth. 224 pp. Is Turkish Secularism Anti-Religious, Reformist, Separationist, Integrationist, or simply Undemocratic? Murat Somer Koç University, Istanbul Forthcoming in Journal of Church and State 54 (3), Summer 2013 Turkey often presents itself, and is often hailed by its allies, as being a positive example of secular democracy for Muslim...

  17. Secular and annual hydrologic effects from the Plate Boundary Observatory GPS network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meertens, C. M.; Wahr, J. M.; Borsa, A. A.; Jackson, M. E.; Herring, T.

    2009-12-01

    The Plate Boundary Observatory (PBO) GPS network is providing accurate and spatially coherent vertical signals that can be interpreted in terms of hydrological loading and poroelastic effects from both natural and anthropogenic changes in water storage. Data used for this analysis are the precise coordinate time series produced on a daily basis by PBO Analysis Centers at New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology and at Central Washington University and combined by the Analysis Center Coordinator at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. These products, as well as derived velocity solutions, are made freely available from the UNAVCO Data Center in Boulder. Analysis of secular trends and annual variations in the time series was made using the analysis software of Langbein, 2008. Spatial variations in the amplitude and phase of the annual vertical component of motion allow for identification of anthropogenic effects due to water pumping, irrigation, and reservoir lake variations, and of outliers due to instrumental or other local site effects. Vertical annual signals of 8-10 mm peak-to-peak amplitude are evident at stations in the mountains of northern and central California and the Pacific Northwest. The peak annual uplift is in October and is correlated to hydrological loading effects. Mountainous areas appear to be responding elastically to the load of the water contained in surface soil, fractures, and snow. Vertical signals are highest when the water load is at a minimum. The vertical elastic hydrologic loading signal was modeled using the 0.25 degree community NOAH land-surface model (LSM) and generally fits the observed GPS signal. Addition comparisons will be made using the Mosaic LSM and the NOAA “Leaky Bucket” hydrologic model. In contrast to mountain stations that are installed principally in bedrock, stations in the valleys of California are installed in sediments. Observations from these stations show greater spatial variability ranging from

  18. Trends in stomach cancer mortality in relation to living conditions in childhood : A study among cohorts born between 1860 and 1939 in seven European countries

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Amiri, M.; Kunst, A. E.; Janssen, F.; Mackenbach, J. P.

    2006-01-01

    Aim: To assess whether secular trends in stomach cancer mortality were correlated with trends in infant mortality rate (IMR) or gross domestic product (GDP). Methods: Data from seven European countries were analyzed. We used Poisson regression to describe mortality trends among birth cohorts of 1865

  19. An evaluation of teeth of ringed seals (Phoca hispida) from Greenland as a matrix to monitor spatial and temporal trends of mercury and stable isotopes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aubail, Aurore; Dietz, Rune; Riget, Frank Farsø;

    2010-01-01

    central West Greenland and central East Greenland. These increases were attributed to global changes in environmental Hg levels since no temporal trends in δ15N values were found to support the hypothesis of a diet shift over time. Furthermore, a decreasing temporal trend in δ13C values was observed...... in the teeth of seals from central East Greenland, and explained by a likely change over time towards more pelagic feeding habits; alternatively, the so-known Seuss effect was thought to be responsible for this decrease. Finally, it was concluded that the tooth of ringed seal was a good monitoring tissue...

  20. The positions of secular resonance surfaces. [for major planet orbits

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, J. G.; Faulkner, J.

    1981-01-01

    The surfaces for the three strongest secular resonances have been located as a function of proper semimajor axis, eccentricity, and inclination for semimajor axes between 1.25 and 3.5 AU. The results are presented graphically. The nu5 resonance only occurs at high inclinations (approximately greater than 23 deg). The nu6 resonance passes through both the main belt and Mars-crossing space. The nu16 resonance starts near the inner edge of the belt and, at low inclinations at least, folds around a portion of the Mars-crossing space until it runs nearly parallel with the earth-crossing boundary.

  1. Trends in nutrient intakes, nutritional status, and correlates of undernutrition among rural children below 5 years of age: The National Nutrition Monitoring Bureau Survey 2012

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I I Meshram

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: In spite of several national nutrition intervention programs that have been in operation since the past four decades, undernutrition continues to be an important public health problem in India. Aim: The aim of the present study was to assess the trends in food and nutrient intakes and nutritional status of children in India below 5 years of age. Setting and Design: A community-based, cross-sectional study was carried out in ten National Nutrition Monitoring Bureau states by adopting a multistage random sampling procedure. Methods: Data were collected on the household (HH socioeconomic and demographic particulars, and anthropometric measurements of the children, such as their length/height and weight, were noted. A 24-h dietary recall method was used for assessing dietary intake. Results: Intake of all the foodstuffs except pulses, vegetables, and fats and oils declined over a period of time (1975–1979 to 2011–2012 while the intake of all the micronutrients except Vitamins A and C declined during the same period. The prevalence of undernutrition, i.e. underweight, stunting, and wasting has declined from 76%, 82%, and 27%, respectively in 1975–1979 to 42%, 44%, and 19%,respectively, in 2011–2012 among 1-5 year children. The severe form of undernutrition has also declined during the same period. The prevalence of undernutrition was significantly (P < 0.01 higher among children of illiterate mothers, those belonging to lower socioeconomic status, and those living in nuclear families. Conclusions: The prevalence of undernutrition declined over the period despite the decrease in food and nutrient intake. However, the pace of decline was slower and it was attributed to improved health-care services coupled with control of communicable diseases and increase in the HHs income. Further efforts are needed to improve the literacy of parents, environmental and personal hygiene, along with the food security of HHs through a public

  2. Trends in food consumption and nutrient intake in Germany between 2006 and 2012: results of the German National Nutrition Monitoring (NEMONIT).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gose, Maria; Krems, Carolin; Heuer, Thorsten; Hoffmann, Ingrid

    2016-04-01

    The German National Nutrition Monitoring (NEMONIT) is a longitudinal and nationwide study to assess changes in food consumption and nutrient intake in Germany. A sample of 1840 participants (baseline age: 14-80 years) was drawn from the nationally representative German National Nutrition Survey (NVS) II (2005-2007). The participants have been interviewed by telephone annually since 2008. Food consumption was assessed by two 24-h recalls in the NVS II and the 4 years of NEMONIT (2008-2012/2013), respectively. Energy and nutrient intakes were calculated using the German Nutrient Database 3.02. Diet quality was evaluated using the Healthy Eating Index-NVS (HEI-NVS) II. Time trends were analysed by generalised estimating equation. Consumption of fruit/fruit products and fruit juice/nectar among men and women decreased, whereas consumption of water, soft drinks and coffee/tea increased over the 6-year period. Furthermore, increased consumption of confectionery and animal fats was observed among women. HEI-NVS II did not change since NVS II in both sexes. There were no changes in energy and protein intakes, but carbohydrate intake declined while fat intake increased over time. Regarding micronutrients, a decreasing intake of thiamin, riboflavin and vitamin B6 was observed in both sexes, but intake of Mg, Fe and niacin increased among women over time. In conclusion, food consumption and nutrient intake remained relatively stable between 2005-2007 and 2012/2013 within this German cohort. A few favourable and unfavourable changes were observed. Compared with national dietary guidelines, consumption of food of plant origin remained too low and consumption of meat/meat products remained too high in Germany.

  3. 风电场监控系统现状和发展趋势综述%Summary on the actuality and development trend of the wind power generation fields monitoring system

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    杨文华

    2011-01-01

    Based on the widely investigation for the integrative monitoring systems of internal and overseas wind power generation fields,analyzes the appearing background,network structure and function characteristic of the monitoring system in wind power generation fields,compares both of similarities and differences between internal and overseas monitoring system,discusses the development trend of the monitoring system in wind power generation fields.%对国内外风电场综合监控系统进行了广泛调研,分析了风电场监控系统的产生的背景、现状、组网方式及功能特点,比较了国内外监控系统的相同和异同,在此基础上讨论了风电场监控系统的发展趋势。

  4. Gravitational dynamos and the low-frequency geomagnetic secular variation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olson, P.

    2007-01-01

    Self-sustaining numerical dynamos are used to infer the sources of low-frequency secular variation of the geomagnetic field. Gravitational dynamo models powered by compositional convection in an electrically conducting, rotating fluid shell exhibit several regimes of magnetic field behavior with an increasing Rayleigh number of the convection, including nearly steady dipoles, chaotic nonreversing dipoles, and chaotic reversing dipoles. The time average dipole strength and dipolarity of the magnetic field decrease, whereas the dipole variability, average dipole tilt angle, and frequency of polarity reversals increase with Rayleigh number. Chaotic gravitational dynamos have large-amplitude dipole secular variation with maximum power at frequencies corresponding to a few cycles per million years on Earth. Their external magnetic field structure, dipole statistics, low-frequency power spectra, and polarity reversal frequency are comparable to the geomagnetic field. The magnetic variability is driven by the Lorentz force and is characterized by an inverse correlation between dynamo magnetic and kinetic energy fluctuations. A constant energy dissipation theory accounts for this inverse energy correlation, which is shown to produce conditions favorable for dipole drift, polarity reversals, and excursions. PMID:18048345

  5. Pseudobulge Formation as a Dynamical Rather than a Secular Process

    CERN Document Server

    Guedes, Javiera; Carollo, Marcella; Madau, Piero

    2012-01-01

    We investigate the formation and evolution of the pseudobulge in "Eris", a high-resolution N-body + smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) cosmological simulation that successfully reproduces a Milky Way-like massive late-type spiral in a cold dark matter (LCDM) universe. At the present epoch, Eris has a virial mass Mvir=8x10^11 Msun, a photometric stellar mass M*=3.2x10^10 Msun, a bulge-to-total ratio B/T = 0.26, and a weak nuclear bar. We find that the bulk of the pseudobulge forms quickly at high redshift via a combination of non-axisymmetric disk instabilities and tidal interactions or mergers both occurring on dynamical timescales, not through slow secular processes at lower redshift. Its subsequent evolution is not strictly secular either, and is closely intertwined with the evolution of the stellar bar. In fact, the structure that we recognize as a pseudobulge today evolves from a stellar bar that formed at high redshift, was destroyed by minor mergers at z~3, reformed shortly after, and weakened again ...

  6. SECULAR DAMPING OF STELLAR BARS IN SPINNING DARK MATTER HALOS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Long, Stacy; Shlosman, Isaac [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Kentucky, Lexington, KY 40506-0055 (United States); Heller, Clayton [Department of Physics, Georgia Southern University, Statesboro, GA 30460 (United States)

    2014-03-01

    We demonstrate using numerical simulations of isolated galaxies that growth of stellar bars in spinning dark matter halos is heavily suppressed in the secular phase of evolution. In a representative set of models, we show that for values of the cosmological spin parameter λ ≳ 0.03, bar growth (in strength and size) becomes increasingly quenched. Furthermore, the slowdown of the bar pattern speed weakens considerably with increasing λ until it ceases completely. The terminal structure of the bars is affected as well, including extent and shape of their boxy/peanut bulges. The essence of this effect lies in the modified angular momentum exchange between the disk and the halo facilitated by the bar. For the first time we have demonstrated that a dark matter halo can emit and not purely absorb angular momentum. Although the halo as a whole is not found to emit, the net transfer of angular momentum from the disk to the halo is significantly reduced or completely eliminated. The paradigm shift implies that the accepted view that disks serve as sources of angular momentum and halos serve as sinks must be revised. Halos with λ ≳ 0.03 are expected to form a substantial fraction, based on the lognormal distribution of λ. The dependence of secular bar evolution on halo spin, therefore, implies profound corollaries for the cosmological evolution of galactic disks.

  7. Ancient Ephesus: Processions as Media of Religious and Secular Propaganda

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lilian Portefaix

    1993-01-01

    Full Text Available The significance of religious rituals often reaches beyond their strict religious intentions. Specifically a procession, performed in front of the public, is a most effective instrument of disseminating a message to the crowds. Consequently, this ritual, as is well known, has often been used not only in religious but also in secular contexts; a procession under the cloak of religion can even become a politically useful medium to avoid popular disturbances on peaceful terms. This was the case in ancient Ephesus, where Roman power conflicted with Greek culture from the middle of the first century B.C. onwards. In the beginning of the second century A.D. the public religious life in the city of Ephesus was to a great extent characterized by processions relating to the cult of Artemis Ephesia. The one traditionally performed on the birthday of the goddess called to mind the Greek origin of the city; it was strictly associated with the religious sphere bringing about a close relationship between the goddess and her adherents. The other, artificially created by a Roman, was entirely secular, and spread its message every fortnight in the streets of Ephesus. It referred to the political field of action and intended to strengthen the Roman rule over the city. The Greek origin of Ephesian culture was later included in the message of the procession, reminding the Greeks not to rebel against Roman rule.

  8. Cohort-specific trends in stroke mortality in seven European countries were related to infant mortality rates

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Amiri, M.; Kunst, A. E.; Janssen, F.; Mackenbach, J. P.

    2006-01-01

    Objectives: To assess, in a population-based study, whether secular trends in cardiovascular disease mortality in seven European countries were correlated with past trends in infant mortality rate (IMR) in these countries. Study Design and Setting: Data on ischemic heart disease (IHD) and stroke mor

  9. Listeriosis in pregnancy: a secular trend in a tertiary referral hospital in Barcelona.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sisó, C; Goncé, A; Bosch, J; Salvia, M D; Hernández, S; Figueras, F

    2012-09-01

    The purpose of this study was to describe the variation in listeriosis infection incidence during pregnancy over a 25-year period based on salient clinical and laboratory features compiled in a tertiary referral hospital and to depict the clinical characteristics of these cases. A cohort was created of all cases of listeriosis in pregnant women or their neonates (early-onset form) diagnosed between 1985 and 2010. Forty-three cases of perinatal listeriosis were diagnosed among the 82,320 hospitalised pregnant women (incidence 0.5‰). Whereas the incidence remained almost constant at 0.24‰ until 2000, an increasing incidence was observed from then on, reaching 0.86‰ during the last years of the study period. A four-fold increase in listeriosis rate during pregnancy has occurred in recent years, with poorer outcome for those cases occurring before 28 weeks and for those in which early antibiotic treatment was not provided. These results should raise the awareness of the agencies and professionals involved in prenatal care.

  10. Secular trends in adiposity in Norwegian 9-year-olds from 1999-2000 to 2005

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kolle, Elin; Steene-Johannessen, Jostein; Holme, Ingar

    2009-01-01

    and fat distribution by investigating changes in waist circumference (WC) and skinfold thicknesses. METHODS: A total of 859 9-year-olds were included in two cross-sectional studies conducted in 1999-2000 and 2005. Measurements of body mass index (BMI; in kg/m2), WC and skinfold thicknesses were taken...... nor the children of non-Western origin showed a significant increase in the prevalence of overweight over the five-year period. No changes were observed for mean BMI, while a significant increase in WC was reported for both girls and boys, and an increase in all skinfold measurements was observed...... in girls only. Shifts in percentile distribution were observed for BMI, WC and sum of 4 skinfold thickness, however, the shift appeared to be faster in the upper end of the population distribution (p

  11. Large-scale Geodynamics Controls Secular Trend of the Total Ozone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steblova, R. S.

    2014-12-01

    A steady tendency towards decrease in the observed total ozone cannot be attributed to space sources of energy such as the sun and cosmic galactic rays because the energy of these sources is stable for several decades. The north-south asymmetry of ozone in the global structure of ozonosphere rules out man-made sources as a significant factor of the ozone decrease. Most of the pollutants come to the northern hemisphere; however, there is about 30% more ozone in it than in the southern hemisphere. We jointly analyzed the global distribution of ozone from TOMS satellite data, the surface of the earth's core from seismic tomography, and lithospheric plate movements from GPS and concluded the following: (1) There are sources of energy in the solid earth which contribute to the atmospheric ozone; (2) The large-scale geodynamics should be considered among the mechanisms responsible for the global structure of ozonosphere and its evolution with time. We also note similarities in the pattern of ozone caused by sources in the solid earth ("terrestrial ozone") and the patterns of geomagnetic and gravity fields. The global morphology of terrestrial ozone suggests a "breakup" in the initial ozone distribution at about the same time as a breakup of Pangea and subsequent spreading of the area of higher ozone content. A restored initial breakup is located in the oceanic region and runs northwest to southeast across Africa. We propose a large-scale geodynamic process: a convective flow in the mantle from the earth's core surface provokes the breakup of Pangea and the breakup of ozone distribution

  12. Secular trends in incidence and 30-day case fatality of acute pancreatitis in North Jutland Country

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Floyd, A.K.; Pedersen, L; Nielsen, GL;

    2002-01-01

    to 2000 and on certain drugs for 1991 to 1999. Results: The incidence rate of acute pancreatitis in women increased from 17.1 per 100,000 person-years in 1981 (95% confidence interval (CI), 12.6-23.2) to 37.8 per 100,000 person-years in 2000 (95% CI, 31.0-46.1). The corresponding increase in men was from...... 18 per 100,000 person-years in 1981 (95% CI, 13.3-24.2) to 27.1 per 100,000 person-years in 2000 (95% CI, 21.5-34.3). The incidence rate of acute pancreatitis increased with age in both sexes. The overall 30-day case fatality rate was 7.5% (95% CI, 6.5-8.7) increasing with age, adjusted odds ratio...... reported as having increased during recent decades in Western countries. Reported mortality lies around 10% and has improved during the past 20 years. The incidence rate and 30-day case fatality rate of acute pancreatitis in North Jutland County, Denmark were examined for the period 1981 to 2000. Methods...

  13. [Secular trends of caries prevalence among 6 and 12 year-old youths in the Netherlands].

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Truin, G.J.; Schuller, A.A.; Poorterman, J.H.G.; Mulder, J.

    2010-01-01

    In order to gain insight into the development of caries prevalence and caries experience among Dutch youth, a meta-analysis was carried out on epidemiological caries data collected in 5 and 6 and 11 and 12 year-olds between 1980 and 2009. From the present analysis it appears that after the mid-1980'

  14. Spatial distribution and secular trends in the epidemiology of Alzheimer's disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whalley, Lawrence J

    2012-02-01

    There are well-established differences in dementia incidence between communities and within communities over time. In part, these differences may be attributable to local improvements in dementia diagnosis and classification. Nevertheless, there are grounds for cautious optimism that there have been slight, but significant, recent reductions in dementia incidence. Possible causes include public health measures to reduce mortality attributable to stroke and heart disease, improved nutrition, and greater personal wealth. A life-course approach to dementia pathophysiology may help to elucidate the nature and timing of interventions that might delay dementia onset. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Secular trends in incidence and mortality of bacteraemia in a Danish county 1981-1994

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Kreesten Meldgaard; Schønheyder, Henrik Carl; Kristensen, Brian;

    1999-01-01

    with a higher volume of blood per sample, but annual numbers of blood cultures also increased. The 30-day mortality rate increased from 17 to 40 per 100,000 person-years during the study period, whereas the case-fatality rate remained constant (23.6%; 95% confidence intervals 22.6%-24.6%). The number...... of bacteraemias increased significantly. This observation could be explained only partly by changes in demography, in blood culture system, and in diagnostic activity. The case fatality rate remained constant despite the fact that more people were diagnosed with bacteraemia; this indicates that, with recent blood...

  16. Secular trend of the leading causes of death in China from 2003 to ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Department of Preventive Medicine, Shenzhen University Health Sciences Center, Shenzhen 518060, China. 3. ... Keywords: Causes of death; China; cancer; cardiovascular disease ..... prevalence of diabetes and obesity was the primary rea-.

  17. Secular Trends and Smoke-Free Policy Development in Rural Kentucky

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fallin, Amanda; Parker, Lindsay; Lindgreen, Janine; Riker, Carol; Kercsmar, Sarah; Hahn, Ellen J.

    2011-01-01

    Secondhand smoke (SHS) exposure causes cardiovascular disease, lung cancer and pulmonary disorders. Smoke-free policies are the most effective way to prevent exposure to SHS. A 5-year community-based randomized control trial (RCT) is in progress to assess factors associated with smoke-free policy development in rural communities. Considering…

  18. The Contribution of Secular Social Theory to Research in Christian Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, Elizabeth

    2012-01-01

    This article argues that educators should be aware of the way that Christian beliefs interact with the structure and practices of secular education policies and that established secular social theory can help them to do this. Drawing on an example from empirical research, the author models how concepts associated with Bourdieu's social theory can…

  19. Substitution or Symbiosis? Assessing the Relationship between Religious and Secular Giving

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, Jonathan P.; Vaidyanathan, Brandon

    2011-01-01

    Research on philanthropy has not sufficiently examined whether charitable giving to religious causes impinges on giving to secular causes. Examining three waves of national panel data, we find that the relationship between religious and secular giving is generally not of a zero-sum nature; families that increase their religious giving also…

  20. Review of: Julian Rivers, The Law of Organized Religions. Between Establishment and Secularism

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vinding, Niels Valdemar

    2011-01-01

    Julian Rivers, The Law of Organized Religions. Between Establishment and Secularism, Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2010. ISBN: 978-0-19-922610-8 (Hardback), pp. li + 368.......Julian Rivers, The Law of Organized Religions. Between Establishment and Secularism, Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2010. ISBN: 978-0-19-922610-8 (Hardback), pp. li + 368....

  1. "Doing the Secular": Academic Practices in the Study of Religion at Two Danish Universities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johansen, Birgitte Schepelern

    2011-01-01

    The academic study of religion at the public university often presents itself as a secular, non-religious, scientific endeavor. The identity of the study is thus firmly rooted within one of the central secular-religious divides, namely that between science and religion. Based on the assumption that such distinctions between religion and the…

  2. One Size Does Not Fit All: Complexity, Religion, Secularism and Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davies, Lynn

    2014-01-01

    The continuing incidence of extremist acts committed in the name of religion underscores the need to examine the interplay between religion and learning. This article argues for a secular foundation in society and school to protect against religion contributing to conflict and extremism. However, this is not a hard version of secularism, but a…

  3. "Doing the Secular": Academic Practices in the Study of Religion at Two Danish Universities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johansen, Birgitte Schepelern

    2011-01-01

    The academic study of religion at the public university often presents itself as a secular, non-religious, scientific endeavor. The identity of the study is thus firmly rooted within one of the central secular-religious divides, namely that between science and religion. Based on the assumption that such distinctions between religion and the…

  4. Exploring Secular Factors for the Lack of Violent Muslim Radicals in Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-05-25

    variety of secular factors: population demographics, employment levels, economy , poverty rate, national social assistance, level of governance...a wide variety of secular factors: population demographics, employment levels, economy , poverty rate, national social assistance, level of...countries spend on social programs. The total amount of spending on programs correlates to the size of the economy ; the richer, less radical countries

  5. Stellar dynamics around a massive black hole - I. Secular collisionless theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sridhar, S.; Touma, Jihad R.

    2016-06-01

    We present a theory in three parts, of the secular dynamics of a (Keplerian) stellar system of mass M orbiting a black hole of mass M• ≫ M. Here we describe the collisionless dynamics; Papers II and III are on the (collisional) theory of resonant relaxation. The mass ratio, ε = M/M• ≪ 1, is a natural small parameter implying a separation of time-scales between the short Kepler orbital periods and the longer orbital precessional periods. The collisionless Boltzmann equation (CBE) for the stellar distribution function (DF) is averaged over the fast Kepler orbital phase using the method of multiple scales. The orbit-averaged system is described by a secular DF, F, in a reduced phase space. F obeys a secular CBE that includes stellar self-gravity, general relativistic corrections up to 1.5 post-Newtonian order, and external sources varying over secular times. Secular dynamics, even with general time dependence, conserves the semimajor axis of every star. This additional integral of motion promotes extra regularity of the stellar orbits, and enables the construction of equilibria, F0, through a secular Jeans theorem. A linearized secular CBE determines the response and stability of F0. Spherical, non-rotating equilibria may support long-lived, warp-like distortions. We also prove that an axisymmetric, zero-thickness, flat disc is secularly stable to all in-plane perturbations, when its DF, F0, is a monotonic function of the angular momentum at fixed energy.

  6. The Contribution of Secular Social Theory to Research in Christian Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, Elizabeth

    2012-01-01

    This article argues that educators should be aware of the way that Christian beliefs interact with the structure and practices of secular education policies and that established secular social theory can help them to do this. Drawing on an example from empirical research, the author models how concepts associated with Bourdieu's social theory can…

  7. One Size Does Not Fit All: Complexity, Religion, Secularism and Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davies, Lynn

    2014-01-01

    The continuing incidence of extremist acts committed in the name of religion underscores the need to examine the interplay between religion and learning. This article argues for a secular foundation in society and school to protect against religion contributing to conflict and extremism. However, this is not a hard version of secularism, but a…

  8. Secularism and religious (in-)security: reinterpreting the French headscarf debates

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jansen, Y.

    2011-01-01

    French secularism has often been presented as an exceptional variety of more moderate and tolerant versions of secularism in Europe, particularly after France’s adoption of the controversial law of 2004 prohibiting the wearing of headscarves in public schools and while performing public functions.

  9. A Dubious Neutrality: The Establishment of Secularism in the Public Schools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toscano, Paul James

    1979-01-01

    Argues that the Supreme Court has two definitions of religion and that secularism qualifies under one of them, that public schools foster secularism, and that separation of church and state should be replaced by court approval of "religious balance." Available from J. Reuben Clark Law School, Provo, UT 84602. (Author/IRT)

  10. Including Secular Philosophies Such as Humanism in Locally Agreed Syllabuses for Religious Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watson, Jacqueline

    2010-01-01

    The 2004 "National Framework for Religious Education" (NFRE) innovatively recommended that secular philosophies such as humanism, or secular worldviews, be included in locally agreed syllabuses for religious education (RE) in England. However, the NFRE is a non-statutory document, and Agreed Syllabus Conferences (ASCs) and Standing…

  11. Disruptive Behaviour in Religious and Secular High Schools: Teachers' and Students' Attitudes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romi, Shlomo

    2004-01-01

    This two-phase study, conducted in religious and secular high schools, investigated the attitudes of teachers and students to disruptive behaviour. The first phase examined a religious school, then applied the same research tools to a secular school. It was assumed that differences of attitude would be found, with teachers viewing disruptive…

  12. Secular chaos and its application to Mercury, hot Jupiters, and the organization of planetary systems

    CERN Document Server

    Lithwick, Yoram

    2013-01-01

    In the inner solar system, the planets' orbits evolve chaotically, driven primarily by secular chaos. Mercury has a particularly chaotic orbit, and is in danger of being lost within a few billion years. Just as secular chaos is reorganizing the solar system today, so it has likely helped organize it in the past. We suggest that extrasolar planetary systems are also organized to a large extent by secular chaos. A hot Jupiter could be the end state of a secularly chaotic planetary system reminiscent of the solar system. But in the case of the hot Jupiter, the innermost planet was Jupiter- (rather than Mercury-) sized, and its chaotic evolution was terminated when it was tidally captured by its star. In this contribution, we review our recent work elucidating the physics of secular chaos and applying it to Mercury and to hot Jupiters. We also present new results comparing the inclinations of hot Jupiters thus produced with observations.

  13. Secular chaos and its application to Mercury, hot Jupiters, and the organization of planetary systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lithwick, Yoram; Wu, Yanqin

    2014-09-02

    In the inner solar system, the planets' orbits evolve chaotically, driven primarily by secular chaos. Mercury has a particularly chaotic orbit and is in danger of being lost within a few billion years. Just as secular chaos is reorganizing the solar system today, so it has likely helped organize it in the past. We suggest that extrasolar planetary systems are also organized to a large extent by secular chaos. A hot Jupiter could be the end state of a secularly chaotic planetary system reminiscent of the solar system. However, in the case of the hot Jupiter, the innermost planet was Jupiter (rather than Mercury) sized, and its chaotic evolution was terminated when it was tidally captured by its star. In this contribution, we review our recent work elucidating the physics of secular chaos and applying it to Mercury and to hot Jupiters. We also present results comparing the inclinations of hot Jupiters thus produced with observations.

  14. The New Secular Humanists: Ronald Dworkin and Philip Kitcher on Life without God

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charles Taliaferro

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Ronald Dworkin and Philip Kitcher recognize that traditional, religious faith—especially in Christian theistic tradition—has virtues that seem to be missing in a secular worldview. To remedy this apparent deficit, they both propose that a secular worldview can provide a satisfying foundation for a flourishing, meaningful life. Moreover, Kitcher argues that secular humanism is far more justified than a religious worldview because it does not face the problem of diversity that arises in the case of religion. I argue that secular humanism faces the same problem of diversity that Kitcher proposes undermines religious belief. I further argue that Dworkin’s and Kitcher’s secular alternative to a religious worldview is problematic.

  15. Review of Christianity and Secular Reason: Classical Themes and Modern Developments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas Cleary

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available In recent years there has been a renewed focus on the relationship between faith and reason. This resurgence has been largely sparked by Charles Taylor’s tome, 'A Secular Age '(2007, and the fascinating exchange between Joseph Ratzinger and Jürgen Habermas (2007 on the pre-political foundations of society. 'Christianity and Secular Reason '(2012 builds on these two works to explore the relationship between faith and reason; in particular secular reason. As the editor, Jeffrey Bloechl, explains, the volume “attends to the relation between Christianity and secular reason at points where each seems to contest the self-assurance of the other” and at another level it also illustrates that secular reason “is deeply troubling to both Christian thought and the philosophy often called ‘continental’.”

  16. The 1995 revision of the joint US/UK geomagnetic field models - I. Secular variation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macmillan, S.; Barraclough, D.R.; Quinn, J.M.; Coleman, R.J.

    1997-01-01

    We present the methods used to derive mathematical models of global secular variation of the main geomagnetic field for the period 1985 to 2000. These secular-variation models are used in the construction of the candidate US/UK models for the Definitive Geomagnetic Reference Field at 1990, the International Geomagnetic Reference Field for 1995 to 2000, and the World Magnetic Model for 1995 to 2000 (see paper II, Quinn et al., 1997). The main sources of data for the secular-variation models are geomagnetic observatories and repeat stations. Over the areas devoid of these data secular-variation information is extracted from aeromagnetic and satellite data. We describe how secular variation is predicted up to the year 2000 at the observatories and repeat stations, how the aeromagnetic and satellite data are used, and how all the data are combined to produce the required models.

  17. Results of a pilot study in the U.S. and Vietnam to assess the utility and acceptability of a multi-level pregnancy test (MLPT) for home monitoring of hCG trends after assisted reproduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shochet, Tara; Comstock, Ioanna A; Ngoc, Nguyen Thi Nhu; Westphal, Lynn M; Sheldon, Wendy R; Loc, Ly Thai; Blum, Jennifer; Winikoff, Beverly; Blumenthal, Paul D

    2017-08-22

    To evaluate the utility and acceptability of using multi-level pregnancy tests (MLPTs) at home to monitor hCG trends following assisted reproductive technology (ART). One hundred and four women presenting for ART at either Stanford Medicine Fertility and Reproductive Health Clinic (Stanford, CA) or Hung Vuong Hospital (Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam) participated in this pilot study. Women were asked to perform the MLPT at home, primarily on days when they were also scheduled to receive standard clinic-based serum hCG testing. These tests were administered up to 6 times over the 6-week period following embryo transfer or intrauterine insemination (IUI). Concordance of serial hCG readings for each time point was assessed by comparing trends in urine MLPT results with trends in serum hCG. Stable or increasing hCG level was interpreted as an indication of a progressing pregnancy, while a declining hCG was interpreted as a lack of established or progressing pregnancy. At study end, all participants were asked about the acceptability and convenience of using the MLPT at home for monitoring hCG trends following ART. Data from both urine and serum testing are available for 156 of 179 clinic visits (87.2%). There was high concordance of serial trend results between the two types of tests: among the 156 sets of serum and urine hCG data points, 150 (96.2%) showed a matching trend in hCG pattern and 6 (3.8%) resulted in a discordant trend. Seventy-three percent of women reported being satisfied or very satisfied with using the MLPTs at home. Almost all (96.6%) said that the MLPT was easy or very easy to use. The MLPT offers women and health care providers a client-friendly diagnostic tool to detect very early pregnancy and monitor its progress. This study was registered on clinicaltrials.gov as NCT01846403 (May 1, 2013), and NCT01919502 (August 5, 2013).

  18. The Humanistic Thoughts in the Medieval Secular Literature

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    唐思思

    2016-01-01

    At the early medieval period, because of the brutal destruction to the ancient culture after the barbarian invasion, the Christian culture rejects to al the secular culture, as wel as the social reality such as the economic poverty, political corruption, and frequent war. As other ideology, literature became the slaves of theology, making the medieval literature as a literature in the "dark age". Humanists, however, used their own ways as the cardinal point, to “strongly agree against every stereotype that was created by the middle age in the form of art performance”. This article wil analyze the three dimensions about the understanding and the performance of human through three main literary styles at that time.

  19. The sociology of late secularization: social divisions and religiosity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruce, Steve

    2016-12-01

    At the start of the twentieth century the religious differed from the religiously indifferent largely in being religious. Now they differ in a number of other social and demographic characteristics that reduce interaction between the two populations further than simple numbers would require. That some of the main carriers of religion are immigrants or adherents of recently imported faiths reinforces the sense that religion is what other people do. In the context of the stock of religious knowledge being depleted and religion-taken-too-seriously being unpopular, the narrow demographic base of the religious makes conversion unlikely and thus makes the reversal of secularization unlikely. © London School of Economics and Political Science 2016.

  20. On the Erigone family and the $z_2$ secular resonance

    CERN Document Server

    Carruba, Valerio; Winter, Othon C

    2015-01-01

    The Erigone family is a C-type group in the inner main belt. Its age has been estimated by several researchers to be less then 300 My, so it is a relatively young cluster. Yarko-YORP Monte Carlo methods to study the chronology of the Erigone family confirm results obtained by other groups. The Erigone family, however, is also characterized by its interaction with the $z_2$ secular resonance. While less than 15% of its members are currently in librating states of this resonance, the number of objects, members of the dynamical group, in resonant states is high enough to allow to use the study of dynamics inside the $z_2$ resonance to set constraints on the family age. Like the ${\

  1. New Data for the Mesoamerican Directional Secular Variation Curve

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soler-Arechalde, A. M.

    2015-12-01

    The Mesoamerican direction secular variation curve is an endless project, new data has been incorporated each year. The new data have radiocarbon dates associated. Wolfman in 1990 proposed the First Curve of Mesoamerica from 1 to 1200 DC. Since 2000 the UNAM´s Archaeomagnetism team has been working continuously by sampling 9 new sites and resampling new stages of Teotihuacan, Teopancazco and Tula. As a result of these investigations more than 70 new data has been annexed and the curve grows until 1600 DC. Data from El Tejar and DuBois has allowed to expand the curve until 1200 BC. An analysis of the incorporation of these new data is presented and the resultant curve is compared to the ARCH3K model.

  2. European Muslims, secularism and the legacy of colonialism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amir S. Mirtaheri

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available The question of Muslims and Europe goes back to the earliest contacts between the two well before the Crusades. Despite their diverse historical contexts, however, these "encounters" have always had a dimension of identity and self-perception. Expectedly, therefore, the current presence of a sizable Muslim minority in Europe has raised many questions and concerns. In this regard, this paper identifies two (associated external and internal challenges facing integration of European Muslims into European societies. Externally, Europe has to deal with the legacy of colonialism and the constructed image of apathy, if not arrogance, towards the traditional Muslim World. Internally, certain readings of the notion of secularism have rendered integration of European Muslims difficult. These two challenges have closely interacted with each other during the past decades. The paper will elaborate on both challenges and will suggest that emergence of authentic Euro-Islams seems to be essential in addressing both challenges.

  3. European Muslims, secularism and the legacy of colonialism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Amir Mirtaheri

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The question of Muslims and Europe goes back to the earliest contacts between the two well before the Crusades. Despite their diverse historical contexts, however, these “encounters” have always had a dimension of identity and self-perception. Expectedly, therefore, the current presence of a sizable Muslim minority in Europe has raised many questions and concerns. In this regard, this paper identifies two (associated external and internal challenges facing integration of European Muslims into European societies. Externally, Europe has to deal with the legacy of colonialism and the constructed image of apathy, if not arrogance, towards the traditional Muslim World. Internally, certain readings of the notion of secularism have rendered integration of European Muslims difficult. These two challenges have closely interacted with each other during the past decades. The paper will elaborate on both challenges and will suggest that emergence of authentic Euro-Islams seems to be essential in addressing both challenges.

  4. "SECULAR RELIGION" AND THE DIPLOMATIC CONCEPT OF POWER BALANCE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. V. Zonova

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract: In the XIX century the theory of the power balance grounded on the equality of all sovereign states was becoming obsolete. The representative of three “secular religions” (nationalists, socialists and liberals questioned the rationality of the existing model ousting the traditional theory of power balance in international relation. In the second half of XIX and beginning of XX century official foreign policies of European cabinets were still based on the power balance theory, though the essence of the balance was changed as the balance policy was more often expressed in rivalry and mutual concessions of powers. The article argues that before the First World War the principles of power politics led to the increased dependency from military potential thus the military might became the most important measure of national greatness, what eventually destroyed the classic European power balance system.

  5. Explanation of observable secular variations of gravity and alternative methods of determination of drift of the center of mass of the Earth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barkin, Yury

    2010-05-01

    The summary. On the basis of geodynamic model of the forced relative displacement of the centers of mass of the core and the mantle of the Earth the secular variations of a gravity and heights of some gravimetry stations on a surface of the Earth have ben studied. At the account of secular drift of the center of mass of the Earth which on our geodynamic model is caused by the unidirectional drift of the core of the Earth relatively to the mantle, the full explanation is given to observable secular variations of a gravity at stations Ny-Alesund (Norway), Churchill (Canada), Medicine (Italy), Sayowa (Antarctica), Strastburg (France), Membach (Belgium), Wuhan (China) and Metsahovi (Finland). Two new methods of determination of secular drift of the center of mass of the Earth, alternative to classical method of a space geodesy are offered: 1) on the basis of gravimetry data about secular trends of a gravity at the stations located on all basic regions of the Earth; 2) on the basis of the comparative analysis of altimetry and coastal data about secular changes of sea level also in basic regions of ocean. 1. Secular drift of the center of mass of the core and the center of mass of the Earth. A secular drift of the center of mass of the Earth to the North relatively to special center O on an axis of rotation of the Earth for which the coefficient of third zonal harmonic J3' = 0, has been predicted in the author work [1]. A drift in a direction to a geographical point (pole P) 70°0 N and 104°3 E has been established for the first time theoretically - as a result of the analysis of the global directed redistribution of masses of the Earth, explaining the observed secular drift of the pole of an axis of rotation of the Earth and not tidal acceleration of its axial rotation [2]. In [1] velocity of drift it has been estimated in 1-2 cm/yr. For specified center O the figure of a planet is as though deprived of pure-shaped form (J3' = 0). And in this sense the point O can be

  6. PSEUDOBULGE FORMATION AS A DYNAMICAL RATHER THAN A SECULAR PROCESS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Guedes, Javiera; Mayer, Lucio; Carollo, Marcella [Institute for Astronomy, ETH Zuerich, Wolgang-Pauli-Strasse 27, 8093 Zurich (Switzerland); Madau, Piero [Department of Astronomy and Astrophysics, University of California, 1156 High Street, Santa Cruz, CA 95064 (United States)

    2013-07-20

    We investigate the formation and evolution of the pseudobulge in 'Eris', a high-resolution N-body + smoothed particle hydrodynamic cosmological simulation that successfully reproduces a Milky-Way-like massive late-type spiral in an cold dark matter universe. At the present epoch, Eris has a virial mass M{sub vir} {approx_equal} 8 Multiplication-Sign 10{sup 11} M{sub Sun }, a photometric stellar mass M{sub *} = 3.2 Multiplication-Sign 10{sup 10} M{sub Sun }, a bulge-to-total ratio B/T = 0.26, and a weak nuclear bar. We find that the bulk of the pseudobulge forms quickly at high redshift via a combination of non-axisymmetric disk instabilities and tidal interactions or mergers, both occurring on dynamical timescales, not through slow secular processes at lower redshift. Its subsequent evolution is not strictly secular either, and is closely intertwined with the evolution of the stellar bar. In fact, the structure that we recognize as a pseudobulge today evolved from a stellar bar that formed at high redshift due to tidal interactions with satellites, was destroyed by minor mergers at z {approx} 3, re-formed shortly after, and weakened again following a steady gas inflow at z {approx}< 1. The gradual dissolution of the bar ensued at z {approx} 1 and continues until the present without increasing the stellar velocity dispersion in the inner regions. In this scenario, the pseudobulge is not a separate component from the inner disk in terms of formation path; rather, it is the first step in the inside-out formation of the baryonic disk, in agreement with the fact that pseudobulges of massive spiral galaxies typically have a dominant old stellar population. If our simulations do indeed reproduce the formation mechanisms of massive spirals, then the progenitors of late-type galaxies should have strong bars and small photometric pseudobulges at high redshift.

  7. Detection of secular acceleration pulses from magnetic observatory data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soloviev, Anatoly; Chulliat, Arnaud; Bogoutdinov, Shamil

    2017-09-01

    Geomagnetic secular variation (SV) models for the epochs before the space era are based on magnetic observatory data, which represent relatively rough and noisy time series due to magnetic storms, anthropogenic spikes and gaps. These models are often strongly regularized in time, so that fast variations in the SV are smoothed out. However, recent studies show that at least some of the geomagnetic jerks observed at the Earth's surface emanate from increasing and decreasing phases of secular acceleration (SA) pulses at the core surface. The latter ones are direct manifestation of the dynamic processes taking place in the liquid core. They were first detected from satellite data, which are both of higher quality and more homogeneous in terms of geographical coverage than ground data. Herein we attempt to carry out similar studies based on observatory data available for a longer period. The proposed method of SV modeling and recognition of SA pulses relies on a new technique of processing time series based on fuzzy mathematics. Comparison with the SV modeling results derived from satellite data shows their high conformity with the proposed method. Stability and reliability of the SA pulse recognition are demonstrated by the examples of well-studied SA pulses in 2006, 2009 and 2012. Moreover, several new SA pulses around 1996, 1999, 2002 and 2014 are discovered as a result of the new approach application to multi-observatory data analysis. The latter provides a basis for applying the method to older historical data and investigate SA pulses and geomagnetic jerks further back in time.

  8. Secular tidal changes in lunar orbit and Earth rotation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, James G.; Boggs, Dale H.

    2016-11-01

    Small tidal forces in the Earth-Moon system cause detectable changes in the orbit. Tidal energy dissipation causes secular rates in the lunar mean motion n, semimajor axis a, and eccentricity e. Terrestrial dissipation causes most of the tidal change in n and a, but lunar dissipation decreases eccentricity rate. Terrestrial tidal dissipation also slows the rotation of the Earth and increases obliquity. A tidal acceleration model is used for integration of the lunar orbit. Analysis of lunar laser ranging (LLR) data provides two or three terrestrial and two lunar dissipation parameters. Additional parameters come from geophysical knowledge of terrestrial tides. When those parameters are converted to secular rates for orbit elements, one obtains d n/d t = -25.97± 0.05 ''/cent2, d a/d t = 38.30 ± 0.08 mm/year, and d i/d t = -0.5 ± 0.1 μas/year. Solving for two terrestrial time delays and an extra d e/d t from unspecified causes gives ˜ 3× 10^{-12}/year for the latter; solving for three LLR tidal time delays without the extra d e/d t gives a larger phase lag of the N2 tide so that total d e/d t = (1.50 ± 0.10)× 10^{-11}/year. For total d n/d t, there is ≤ 1 % difference between geophysical models of average tidal dissipation in oceans and solid Earth and LLR results, and most of that difference comes from diurnal tides. The geophysical model predicts that tidal deceleration of Earth rotation is -1316 ''/cent2 or 87.5 s/cent2 for UT1-AT, a 2.395 ms/cent increase in the length of day, and an obliquity rate of 9 μas/year. For evolution during past times of slow recession, the eccentricity rate can be negative.

  9. Application of a Weighted Regression Model for Reporting Nutrient and Sediment Concentrations, Fluxes, and Trends in Concentration and Flux for the Chesapeake Bay Nontidal Water-Quality Monitoring Network, Results Through Water Year 2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chanat, Jeffrey G.; Moyer, Douglas L.; Blomquist, Joel D.; Hyer, Kenneth E.; Langland, Michael J.

    2016-01-13

    In the Chesapeake Bay watershed, estimated fluxes of nutrients and sediment from the bay’s nontidal tributaries into the estuary are the foundation of decision making to meet reductions prescribed by the Chesapeake Bay Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) and are often the basis for refining scientific understanding of the watershed-scale processes that influence the delivery of these constituents to the bay. Two regression-based flux and trend estimation models, ESTIMATOR and Weighted Regressions on Time, Discharge, and Season (WRTDS), were compared using data from 80 watersheds in the Chesapeake Bay Nontidal Water-Quality Monitoring Network (CBNTN). The watersheds range in size from 62 to 70,189 square kilometers and record lengths range from 6 to 28 years. ESTIMATOR is a constant-parameter model that estimates trends only in concentration; WRTDS uses variable parameters estimated with weighted regression, and estimates trends in both concentration and flux. WRTDS had greater explanatory power than ESTIMATOR, with the greatest degree of improvement evident for records longer than 25 years (30 stations; improvement in median model R2= 0.06 for total nitrogen, 0.08 for total phosphorus, and 0.05 for sediment) and the least degree of improvement for records of less than 10 years, for which the two models performed nearly equally. Flux bias statistics were comparable or lower (more favorable) for WRTDS for any record length; for 30 stations with records longer than 25 years, the greatest degree of improvement was evident for sediment (decrease of 0.17 in median statistic) and total phosphorus (decrease of 0.05). The overall between-station pattern in concentration trend direction and magnitude for all constituents was roughly similar for both models. A detailed case study revealed that trends in concentration estimated by WRTDS can operationally be viewed as a less-constrained equivalent to trends in concentration estimated by ESTIMATOR. Estimates of annual mean flow

  10. The „Pussy riot“ case and the post-secular hybrids

    OpenAIRE

    Uzlaner Dmitrij

    2013-01-01

    The article is devoted to the analysis of the “Pussy riot” case and the peculiarities of Russian postsecularism. Special emphasis is placed on the phenomenon of post-secular hybrids, i.e. the overcoming of the situation of social differentiation between religion and other social subsystems (one of the main distinctive features of secularization). It is claimed that the materials of the trial against “Pussy riot” make evident the appearance in Russia of at least three post-secular hybrid...

  11. Trends in menarcheal age between 1955 and 2009 in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Talma, H.; Schönbeck, Y.; Dommelen, P. van; Bakker, B.; Buuren, S. van; Hirasing, R.

    2013-01-01

    Aim: To assess and compare the secular trend in age at menarche in Dutch girls (1955-2009) and girls from Turkish and Moroccan descent living in the Netherlands (1997-2009). Methods: Data on growth and maturation were collected in 20,867 children of Dutch, Turkish and Moroccan descent in 2009 by

  12. Trends in ICT 2003

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kessel, Paul van; Rust, Christa

    2003-01-01

    The study "Trends in ICT 2003" surveyed Dutch managers about important IT aspects. Results of the study are presented in brief. Topics treated are security, privacy, e-commerce, use of intranet, monitoring of employee WWW use, who makes IT decisions, implementation of contingency plans, the cause of

  13. The „Pussy riot“ case and the post-secular hybrids

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Uzlaner Dmitrij

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The article is devoted to the analysis of the “Pussy riot” case and the peculiarities of Russian postsecularism. Special emphasis is placed on the phenomenon of post-secular hybrids, i.e. the overcoming of the situation of social differentiation between religion and other social subsystems (one of the main distinctive features of secularization. It is claimed that the materials of the trial against “Pussy riot” make evident the appearance in Russia of at least three post-secular hybrids: 1 the blending of religion and politics; 2 installation of religious norms into the public order of the secular state; 3 significance of confessional legal experts as part of the new “ideological state apparatus”.

  14. Magnetic Field - Secular Variation of the Inclination Component for the Epoch 2010.0 - Direct Download

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — This map layer shows lines of equal annual change (secular variation) in the inclination of the Earth's magnetic field, derived from the International Geomagnetic...

  15. Magnetic Field - Secular Variation of the Declination Component for the Epoch 2010.0 - Direct Download

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — This map layer shows isoporic lines (lines of equal annual change, or secular variation, in the declination of the Earth's magnetic field), derived from the...

  16. Secular precessing compact binary dynamics, spin and orbital angular momentum flip-flops

    CERN Document Server

    Tápai, Márton; Gergely, László Árpád

    2016-01-01

    We derive the conservative secular evolution of precessing compact binaries to second post-Newtonian order accuracy, with leading-order spin-orbit, spin-spin and mass quadrupole-monopole contributions included. The emerging closed system of first-order differential equations evolves the pairs of polar and azimuthal angles of the spin and orbital angular momentum vectors together with the periastron angle. In contrast with the instantaneous dynamics, the secular dynamics is autonomous. This secular dynamics reliably characterizes the system over timescales starting from a few times the radial period to several precessional periods, but less than the radiation reaction timescale. We numerically compare the instantaneous and secular evolutions and estimate the number of periods for which dissipation has no significant effect, e.g. the conservative timescale. We apply the analytic equations to study the spin flip-flop effect, recently found by numerical relativity methods. Our investigations show that the effect ...

  17. Surviving Secularization: Masking the Spirit in the Jankunu (John Canoe Festivals of the Caribbean

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kenneth M. Bilby

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Jankunu (Jonkonnu, Junkanoo, an Afro-Caribbean Yuletide tradition centering on masked dance, is generally characterized as a secular festival. This article presents contemporary ethnographic evidence showing that certain older variants of the tradition remain closely connected with African-derived religious concepts and practices. On the basis of this new evidence, the author argues for a reexamination and reevaluation of the historical significance of this tradition, which even today, despite its ostensible secularity, has vaguely "spiritual" associations for many in the region—including some of those who represent it as "secular." The article interprets this apparent contradiction as the result of a historical process of secularization (in response to the stigmatization of African modes of religiosity that was only partly successful.

  18. A Secular Resonance Between Iapetus and the Giant Planets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cuk, Matija; Dones, Henry C. Luke; Nesvorny, David; Walsh, Kevin J.

    2017-06-01

    Iapetus is the outermost of the regular satellites of Saturn, and its origin and evolution present a number of unsolved problems. From the point of view of orbital dynamics, it is remarkable that Iapetus has a large inclination (8 degrees) and a significantly smaller eccentricity (0.03), contrary to the pattern expected if its orbit was excited by encounters between Saturn and other planets early in the Solar System's history (Nesvorny et al, 2014). Here we report our long-term numerical integrations of Iapetus's orbit that show multi-Myr oscillations of Iapetus's eccentricity with an amplitude on the order of 0.01. We find that the basic argument causing this behavior is the sum of the longitude of pericenter and the longitude of the node of Iapetus, with a 0.3 Myr period. This argument appears to be in resonance with the period of the g5 mode in the eccentricity and perihelion of Saturn. We find that our nominal solution, including Saturn's oblateness, Titan, Iapetus and all four giant planets, shows librations of the argument: ǎrpi_Iapetus - ǎrpi_g5 + \\Omega_Iapetus - \\Omega_SaturnEq, where ǎrpi and \\Omega are the longitudes of pericenters and nodes, respectively, and \\Omega_SaturnEq is Saturn's equinox. While planetary perturbations are crucial in generating the g5 mode and therefore maintaining this resonance, we find that Iapetus is affected by the planets only indirectly, with the Sun being the dominant direct perturber. The libration is stable for tens of Myr for the nominal rate of Saturn's pole precession (French et al, 2017), and appears stable indefinitely if we assume a secular resonance between Saturn's node and the secular mode g18 (Ward and Hamilton, 2004; Hamilton and Ward, 2004). We will present the implication of this resonance for the origin of Iapetus's orbit and the dynamical history of Saturn's system. This research is funded by NASA Outer Planets Research Program award NNX14AO38G. References: French, R. G., McGhee-French, C. A

  19. Constitutional legitimacy: Sharia Law, Secularism and the Social Compact

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zia Akhtar

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available This article considers the general points relating to the application of Sharia law which challenges legislators in the political instability of a number of Middle Eastern countries. The question explored is how governments of these countries who are facing discontent can work towards constitutional governance. As an example comparison is made between the Islamic Republic of Pakistan and Indonesia with the largest Muslim populations. In Pakistan an inherited Westminster Parliamentary system with a common law codified dated at the time of the British rule is supplemented by criminal penalties as present in the Hudood ordinances. These codes enforce punishments for some crimes and these were promulgated in the early 1980s during the reign of the Pakistani conservative military government. These different layers of jurisprudence do not accord with a uniform legal precedence and creates a clash between liberals and the fundamentalists who want an all pervasive Sharia law. The Pakistani legal canon of Islamic law has been restricted by the secular ideology of the state which has parallels in other Asian countries with a Muslim majority. However, there is an issue of compatibility of a secular ideology and the application of Sharia. It needs an exposition of thought that takes account of the enlightenment in Europe which led to the social contract theory in the 18th century. This theory rejects the narrow interpretation of divine authority and presents the jurist with a challenge to make modernize the laws. In recent times Muslim academics have adopted a critical approach against the tenets of conservatism in temporal Islam and called them unrepresentative of the true spirit of the Sharia. The present turmoil in the Arab countries has raised the question of legitimacy and the need arises to evaluate the principles of the Compact of Medina, which was proclaimed by the first Islamic state, and secondly, to enquire if the adoption of Sharia can be made

  20. Gandhi on religion, faith and conversion: secular blueprint relevant today.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Ajai R; Singh, Shakuntala A

    2004-01-01

    symbols could not be made into a fetish to prove the superiority of one religion over another.In a multi-religious secular polity like that of India, Gandhi's ideas on religion and attitude toward other religions could serve as a secular blueprint to ponder over and implement.